beyond gdp the quest for a measure of social welfare this paper critically examines the various approaches to the measurement of individual well being and social welfare that have been considered for the construction of alternatives to gdp special attention is devoted to recent developments in the analysis of sustainability in the study of happiness in the theory of social choice and fair allocation and in the capability approach it is suggested in the conclusion that although convergence toward a consensual approach is not impossible for the moment not one but three alternatives to gdp are worth developing jel i31 e23 e01

the role of the trade channel in the propagation of oil supply shocks abstract this paper analyzes when and why idiosyncratic oil supply shocks produce large macroeconomic effects in an analytically tractable two country general equilibrium model we focus on a demand driven mechanism the trade channel which transmits oil shocks across economies through changes in the non oil goods terms of trade when the trade channel is operative we have three main consequences on the transmission of oil shocks first the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks may be large and asymmetric across countries second the magnitude of the effects is nonlinear in the size of the oil shock third terms of trade movements never ensure international risk sharing after an idiosyncratic oil supply shock

inter factor inter fuel substitution carbon intensity and energy related co2 reduction empirical evidence from china carbon dioxide co2 reduction which is the central issue in addressing global warming depends on the extent that clean energy can substitute for co2 emitting coal and non energy factors can substitute for energy factor the purposes of this paper are to empirically investigate inter factor inter fuel substitution in china and to evaluate the determinants of china s energy related carbon intensity as well as mitigation effects of carbon tax considering china s rapid increase in energy consumption and the slow adjustment in substitution the two stage estimation method and the dynamic error correction mechanism are employed in this study the empirical results suggest substitutability among different types of energy sources as well as substitutability among energy labor and capital the magnitude of cross price elasticities indicates that the substitutions are inelastic which limits the scope of the chinese government to implement substitution strategy aiming at energy conservation and environmental management china s carbon intensity declined during 1985 2012 most of which can be attributed to labor substitution and energy price increase however carbon intensive technology being embodied in china s capital investment energy consuming equipment has contributed to the increase in carbon intensity a carbon tax of rmb 50 tonne could reduce 332 9 million tonnes co2 emissions on the basis of 2012 in addition if ignoring the feedback between inter factor inter fuel substitutions co2 mitigation potential would be underestimated

environmental regulation capital output and energy efficiency in china an empirical research based on integrated energy prices abstract how to improve environmental quality and achieve high quality development of economy have become important challenges for china in the new era based on the klems framework this paper analyzes the relationship between environmental regulation factor substitution and energy saving effect by using panel structure vector autoregression model and panel data of china industry from 2004 to 2014 the following conclusions are drawn 1 china s environmental regulation can promote the substitution of capital to energy however benefit of this substitution in the long run is greater than that in the short run 2 only in the long run can china s environmental regulations have significant energy saving effect technological innovation is the main reason for the improvement of energy saving effect of environmental regulation 3 china s environmental regulation will not significantly improve the structure of capital which makes the economic benefits low finally the paper discusses the possible ways to improve china s environmental regulation from the aspects of forming a scientific environmental supervision system improving energy pricing mechanism and capital structure

oil price shocks and their short and long term effects on the chinese economy a considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil price shocks for the developed economies however there has been a lack of empirical study of this kind on china and other developing countries this paper attempts to fill this gap by answering how and to what extent oil price shocks impact china s economy emphasizing on the price transmission mechanisms to that end we develop a structural vector auto regressive model our results show that an oil price increase negatively affects output and investment but positively affects inflation rate and interest rate however with the differentiated price control policies for materials and intermediates on the one hand and final products on the other hand in china the impact on real economy represented by real output and real investment lasts much longer than that to price monetary variables our decomposition results also show that the short term impact namely output decrease induced by the cut of capacity utilization rate is greater in the first one to two years but the portion of the long term impact defined as the impact realized through an investment change increases steadily and exceeds that of short term impact at the end of the second year afterwards the long term impact dominates and maintains for quite some time

paradoxical consumption behavior when economic activity has environmental effects in a model where enhanced economic activity accumulation of produced capital leads to environmental eects depletion of natural capital competitive steady states corresponding to dierent discount rates are compared for positive discount rates the steady state stock of produced capital may exceed the size maximizing sustainable consumption this implies paradoxical consumption behavior that is a lower discount rate may be associated with lower steady state consumption the theoretical significance of this phenomenon for intergenerational equity is discussed and examples indicating the empirical relevance of the underlying assumptions are presented

why do energy prices matter the role of interindustry linkages in u s manufacturing there is considerable empirical evidence that energy prices had a large effect on the u s economy between world war ii and the 1980s this paper argues that linkages between manufacturing industries amplify the effect of an energy price shock and help explain the large effect in particular energy intensive industries are important input suppliers to other industries when the price of energy increases energy intensive industries contract raising materials prices for other industries because of the reduction in materials supply the downstream industries also contract which i refer to as the supply effect using data from the census of manufactures i find that the supply effect accounted for about one half of the sensitivity of value added to the price of energy i use plant level census data to show that the supply effect caused similar changes in value added per plant as in value added per industry a price increase caused a small although statistically significant decrease in entry and had no effect on exit finally the supply effect reduced plant level labor demand jel e32 q43

a step beside the maximin path can we sustain the economy by following hartwick s investment rule si la durabilite est interpretee comme la necessite de soutenir le niveau de consommation ou d utilite alors l utilisation d un critere maximin est pertinente l economie soutenable est caracterisee par un niveau d investissement optimal qui satisfait la regle d investissement d hartwick cet article examine comment la durabilite d une economie basee sur une ressource non renouvelable est modifiee au voisinage du sentier maximin c est a dire lorsque la consommation ou les prix sont sous optimaux un indicateur de consommation soutenable est propose pour caracteriser la durabilite des sentiers de consommation constante definis comme des deviations au sentier maximin on decrit en particulier comment une sur consommation presente diminue la soutenabilite de l economie pour les generations futures

assessing energy price induced improvements in efficiency of capital in oecd manufacturing industries to assess how capital stocks adapt to energy price changes it is necessary to account for the impacts on different vintages of capital and to account separately for price induced and autonomous improvements in the energy efficiency of capital stock the results of econometric analysis for five manufacturing industries in 19 oecd countries between 1990 and 2005 indicate that higher energy prices resulted in smaller energy use due to both improved energy efficiency of capital stock and reduced demand for the energy input the investment response to energy prices varied considerably across manufacturing industries being more significant in energy intensive sectors the results of policy simulations indicate that a carbon tax can deliver significant reductions in energy consumption in the medium run with modest declines in energy using capital stock

variance properties of solow s productivity residual and their cyclical implications abstract for the united states economy 1960 1989 the correlation between the growth rates of the solow residual and the real price of energy government spending is 0 55 0 09 this study develops a model to see if it quantitatively captures the endogenous transmission mechanism underlying the observed solow residual correlations it does the transmission mechanism depends on endogenous capital utilization incorporating shocks to true technology energy prices and government spending the model economy accounts for 76 or 89 percent of u s output volatility and is generally consistent with features of u s business cycles

the role of energy in real business cycle models abstract this paper modifies hansen s 1985 analysis of a real business cycle mode with indivisible labor by explicitly including energy as a productive input and modelling the relative price of energy as an exogenous random process one goal is to determine the extent to which the introduction of energy price shocks reduces the reliance of the real business cycle model on unobserved technology shocks the other goal following christiano and eichenbaum 1991 is to compare the correlation between real wages and hours predicted by the energy inclusive model to that predicted by hansen s model

interpreting sustainability in economic terms dynamic efficiency plus intergenerational equity abstract economists have confined the concept of sustainability to intertemporal distributional equity we propose a broader definition combining dynamic efficiency and intergenerational equity and relate it to two concepts from neoclassical economics potential pareto improvements and inter personal compensation

on the dynamic effects of oil price shocks a study using industry level data abstract this paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on demand and supply in various industries the impulse responses of identified var models indicate that for industries that have a large cost share of oil such as petroleum refinery and industrial chemicals oil price shocks mainly reduce supply in contrast for many other industries with the automobile industry being a particularly important example oil price shocks mainly reduce demand the paper suggests that oil price shocks influence economic activities beyond that explained by direct input cost effects possibly by delaying purchasing decisions of durable goods

the community reinvestment act and mortgage lending to lower income borrowers and neighborhoods abstractthis paper evaluates the community reinvestment act cra a law mandating that banks help meet the credit needs of lower income households and neighborhoods to measure the effect of the law on lending to targeted groups since 1994 i take advantage of discontinuous targeting rules and abrupt changes in target status on average the cra appears to have had little impact on mortgage lending even during the mid 2000s when lending to lower income areas nevertheless soared i do find a significant effect during the late 1990s and early 2000s in large metropolitan areas when and where the cra may have been most binding i use this episode to test the effect of the cra on overall mortgage availability that is lending by both regulated and unregulated institutions the results are consistent with the notion that government intervention in credit markets may be justified on the grounds that information externalities exist and can depress credit supply

are oil shocks permanent or temporary panel data evidence from crude oil and ngl production in 60 countries this paper examines the unit root properties of crude oil production for 60 countries employing a range of panel data unit root tests for the period 1971 to 2003 the study first employs a number of panel data tests that do not accommodate structural breaks and then proceeds to apply the lagrange multiplier lm panel unit root test with one structural break the results of the panel data tests without a structural break are inconclusive with at best mixed support for joint stationarity the findings from the lm panel unit root test with a structural break however are conclusive suggesting that for a world panel and smaller regional based panels crude oil and ngl production are jointly stationary

racial disparities in bank specific mortgage lending models abstract we consider several methods of combining estimates of unexplained racial disparities in regulatory models of mortgage lending although models for individual banks do not provide statistically significant evidence of discrimination effects for blacks are statistically and economically significant when combining data

models of energy use putty putty versus putty clay energy use is inelastic in time series data but elastic in international cross section data two models of energy use reproduce these elasticities a putty putty model with adjustment costs developed by pindyck and rotemberg 1983 and a putty clay model in the pindyck rotemberg model capital and energy are highly complementary in both the short run and the long run in the putty clay model capital and energy are complementary in the short run but substitutable in the long run we highlight the differences in the cross section implications of the models by considering the effect of an energy tax on output in both models in the putty putty model an energy tax that doubles the price of energy leads to a fall in output in the long run of 33 in contrast the same tax in the putty clay model leads to a fall in output of only 5 3

a mixed bentham rawls criterion for intergenerational equity theory and implications abstract this paper proposes a welfare criterion that balances the need for development and the concern for the least advantaged generations and explores its implications this criterion called the mixed bentham rawls criterion moderates the effect of discounting yet permits some degree of intertemporal trade off it is a weighted average of two terms a the sum of discounted utilities and b the utility level of the least advantaged generation we derive necessary conditions to characterize growth paths that satisfy our criterion and show that in some models with familiar dynamic specifications an optimal path exists and displays appealing characteristics

the importance of lender heterogeneity in mortgage lending abstract previous studies of the mortgage lending process which fail to adequately account for inter lender differences suffer from a potentially serious omitted variables bias using a sample of 23 094 home purchase mortgage applications from pinellas county st petersburg florida over the 1993 1995 interval i demonstrate that the inclusion of lender characteristics enhances the predictive power of accept reject decision models of mortgage origination in addition the inclusion of lender attributes is shown to substantially influence the coefficient estimates of additional model parameters of interest such as the applicant race and neighborhood racial composition variables finally this study provides unique and supportive evidence regarding the existence and persistence of information externalities in home purchase mortgage markets

imperfect competition and the effects of energy price increases on economic activity the authors show that modifying the standard neoclassical growth model by assuming that competition is imperfect makes it easier to explain the size of the declines in output and real wages that follow increases in the price of oil plausibly parameterized models of this type are able to mimic the response of output and real wages in the united states the responses are particularly consistent with a model of implicit collusion where markups depend positively on the ratio of the expected present value of future profits to the current level of output copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

oil and the euro area economy we examine the macroeconomic effects of different types of oil shocks and the oil transmission mechanism in the euro area a comparison is made with the us and across individual member countries first we find that the underlying source of the oil price shift is crucial to determine the repercussions on the economy and the appropriate monetary policy reaction second the transmission mechanism is considerably different compared to the us in particular inflationary effects in the us are mainly driven by a strong direct pass through of rising energy prices and indirect effects of higher production costs in contrast euro area inflation reacts sluggishly and is much more driven by second round effects of increasing wages the monetary policy reaction of the ecb to oil shocks is also strikingly different compared to the fed the inflation objective relative to the output stabilization objective appears more important for euro area monetary authorities than for the fed third there are substantial asymmetries across member countries these differences are due to different labour market dynamics which are further aggravated by a common monetary policy stance which does not fit all gert peersman and ine van robays

measuring the immeasurable a survey of sustainability indices sustainability indices for countries provide a one dimensional metric to valuate country specific information on the three dimensions of sustainable development economic environmental and social conditions at the policy level they suggest an unambiguous yardstick against which a country s development can be measured and even a cross country comparison can be performed this paper reviews the explanatory power of various sustainability indices applied in policy practice we show that these indices fail to fulfill fundamental scientific requirements making them rather useless if not misleading with respect to policy advice

industry dynamics and the minimum wage a putty clay approach we document two new findings about the industry level response to minimum wage hikes first restaurant exit and entry both rise following a hike second there is no change in employment among continuing restaurants we develop a model of industry dynamics based on putty clay technology that is consistent with these findings in the model continuing restaurants cannot change employment and thus industry level adjustment occurs gradually through exit of labor intensive restaurants and entry of capital intensive restaurants interestingly the putty clay model matches the small estimated short run disemployment effect of the minimum wage found in other studies but produces a larger long run disemployment effect

rebound directed technological change and aggregate demand for energy abstract we analyse the long run role of energy in aggregate production the factor share of energy has been remarkably constant despite the relative decline in the price of energy we analyse possible explanations for this observation ruling out the idea that endogenous directed technological change has led to a failure of energy augmenting technology to keep pace with labour augmenting technology instead we propose a model in which a combination of income and substitution effects has driven both shifts in consumption patterns towards existing energy intensive goods and the emergence of new such goods

optimal transition from coal to gas and renewable power under capacity constraints and adjustment costs this paper studies the optimal transition from existing coal power plants to gas and renewable power under a carbon budget it solves a model of polluting exhaustible resources with capacity constraints and adjustment costs to build coal gas and renewable power plants it finds that optimal investment in renewable energy may start before coal power has been phased out and even before investment in gas has started because doing so allows for smoothing investment over time and reduces adjustment costs gas plants may be used to reduce short term investment in renewable power and associated costs but must eventually be phased out to allow room for carbon free power one risk for myopic agents comparing gas and renewable investment is thus to overestimate the lifetime of gas plants e g when computing the levelized cost of electricity and be biased against renewable power these analytical results are quantified with numerical simulations of the european commission s 2050 energy roadmap

the hartwick rule myths and facts we shed light on the hartwick rule for capital accumulation and resource depletion by providing semantic clarifications and investigating the implications and relevance of this rule we extend earlier results by establishing that the hartwick rule does not indicate sustainability and does not require substitutability between man made and naturalcapital we use a new class of simple counterexamples i to obtain the novel finding that a negative value of net investments need not entail that utility is unsustainable and ii to point out deficiencies in the literature

characterizing sustainability the converse of hartwick s rule this note offers a general proof of the converse of hartwick s rule namely that in an economy with stationary instantaneous preferences and a stationary technology an efficient constant utility path is characterized by the value of net investments being zero at each point in time in a one consumption economy with two stocks a stock of a natural resource and a stock of man made capital this means that if consumption remains constant at the maximum sustainable level then the accumulation of man made capital always exactly compensates in value for the depletion of the natural resource

mortgage lending in boston interpreting hmda data the home mortgage disclosure act was enacted to monitor minority and low income access to the mortgage market the data collected for this purpose show that minorities are more than twice as likely to be denied a mortgage as whites yet variables correlated with both race and creditworthiness were omitted from these data making any conclusion about race s role in mortgage lending impossible the federal reserve bank of boston collected additional variables important to the mortgage lending decision and found that race continued to play an important though significantly diminished role in the decision to grant a mortgage copyright 1996 by american economic association

one sided sustainability tests with amenities and changes in technology trade and population abstract if an economy with multiple consumption goods including environmental amenities uniquely maximises present value with constant discounting it is unsustainable at some time if either of two measures augmented net investment or the change in augmented green net national product are zero or negative then augmented denotes that time is treated as a productive stock which includes in each measure the value of future exogenous changes in technology or terms of trade adjustments are found to make each measure a test for individual sustainability when population grows exogenously the practical and philosophical rationale for testing sustainability in a present value maximising and therefore fully prescribed development path is discussed

oil shock and economic growth in japan a nonlinear approach abstract this paper investigates the relationship between oil price shock and economic growth on the basis of the nonlinear approach developed by hamilton hamilton j 2001 a parametric approach to flexible nonlinear inference econometrica 537 573 we use the approach also in hamilton hamilton j 2003 what is an oil shock journal of econometrics 363 398 of capturing this relationship in japan in a nonlinear model the idea is that negative oil price shocks price increase tend to have larger impact on growth than positive shocks do our empirical evidence confirmed the existence of nonlinearity between these two variables and a flexible nonlinear model is estimated additionally several other form of nonlinearity are estimated and tested

peak oil profiles through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment abstract this paper disentangles the interactions between oil production profiles the dynamics of oil prices and growth trends we do so through a general equilibrium model in which peak oil endogenously emerges from the interplay between the geological technical macroeconomic and geopolitical determinants of supply and demand under non perfect expectations we analyze the macroeconomic effects of oil production profiles and demonstrate that peak oil dates that differ only slightly may lead to very different time profiles of oil prices exportation flows and economic activity we investigate middle east s trade off between different pricing trajectories in function of two alternative objectives maximisation of oil revenues or households welfare and assess its impact on oecd growth trajectories a sensitivity analysis highlights the respective roles of the amount of resources inertia on the deployment of non conventional oil and short term oil price dynamics on peak oil dates and long term oil prices it also examines the effects of these assumptions on oecd growth and middle east strategic tradeoffs

energy price energy efficiency and capital productivity empirical investigations and policy implications abstract the immediate effect of carbon pricing policy is to raise energy costs which in turn reduces energy consumption either through induced capital under utilization or investments in new energy efficient capital the latter mechanism which implies improvements in energy efficiency is realized in the long run while the former which has implications for capital productivity tends to occur in the short run we employ panel vector autoregressions as well as co integration and error correction techniques to identify these short and long run relationships including their differences across canadian industries

oil price pass through along the price chain in the euro area this paper analyzes how oil price shocks are transmitted downstream to producer and consumer prices in the euro area at the highest disaggregate level in doing so we first generate an appropriate database that identifies each industrial production sector with its corresponding price of consumer goods for the euro area we next estimate a constrained vector autoregressive model our findings show a statistically significant increase in producer prices after an oil price shock for branches with high oil consumption although this statistical pass through is only partial however there is no evidence of a significant oil price pass through to consumer prices for most branches which suggests the adaptability of european producers from the most branches to higher oil price pressures without transmitting them to consumers exceptions chemical and metal

asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases abstract it has been common to assume that the relationship between economic activity and oil prices is asymmetric theoretical underpinnings for this asymmetry include costly sectoral reallocation partial equilibrium models of irreversible investment and some version of precautionary savings yet recent studies that use new methodologies to test for asymmetries in u s data have cast some doubts on that premise in this paper we use state of the art techniques to evaluate the presence of asymmetries for a set of oecd countries containing both oil exporters and oil importers we find very little support for the hypothesis that the response of industrial production to oil price increases and decreases is asymmetric our results have important implications for theoretical models of the transmission of oil price shocks they point towards the importance of direct supply and direct demand transmission channels as well as indirect transmission channels that imply a symmetric response

genuine savings and sustainability genuine savings gs has emerged as the leading economic indicator of sustainable economic development at the country level it derives from the literatures on weak sustainability wealth accounting and national income accounting we discuss the theoretical underpinnings of gs focusing on the relationship between changes in a nation s extended capital stock and the future path of consumption the indicator has entered widespread use propelled by the world bank s publications despite its varying performance as a predictor for future consumption notwithstanding the extensive body of literature reviewed promising future research avenues are identified

net national product as an indicator of sustainability net national product nnp can potentially serve several objectives among others to measure value added and to be an indicator of welfare in the aftermath of the world commission on environment and development however it also seems important to investigate whether the concept of nnp can serve as an indicator of sustainability my point of departure following hicks 1946 ch 14 is therefore to require that nnp should measure what can be consumed in the present period without reducing future consumption possibilities and in line with this to argue that the nnp should equal the maximum per capita consumption level that can be sustained if sufficiently many facilitating assumptions are made then a concept of nnp that serves as an exact indicator of sustainability can easily be constructed for instance for a closed economy with a constant population a stationary technology and with only one capital good it follows that the present does not reduce future consumption possibilities if and only if it does not decrease the stock of the single capital good hence under the assumption that the one capital good k is identical to the one consumption good x nnp defined as y x k measures the maximal sustainable consumption at time t because then x y is equivalent to k the purpose of this note is to establish that with multiple capital goods it is not in general possible to construct an exact indicator of sustainability on the

how do nominal and real rigidities interact a tale of the second best this paper analyses the importance of real wage rigidities in particular through their interaction with price stickiness for optimal monetary policy in a calibrated small open economy dsge model including oil in production and consumption blanchard and gali 2007a show real rigidities to introduce a trade off between stabilising inflation and the welfare relevant output gap the present paper complements their findings by showing that the welfare cost of real rigidities can be substantial compared to nominal frictions in a typical tale of the second best we also show that in the presence of real wage rigidities price stickiness can be welfare enhancing

sustainable development the hartwick rule and optimal growth defining sustainable development as non declining utility the consistency of this concept with the hartwick rule and optimal growth is explored when resources are exhaustible a simple proof that a generalized hartwick rule is necessary and sufficient for constant consumption is derived the existence of a maximal constant consumption path is shown to depend critically on the elasticity of substitution if this is less than 1 consumption declines if it is greater than 1 then consumption is not maximal if it is equal to 1 the cobb douglas case then existence is proved consumption can increase along an optimal path if the pure rate of time preference is 0 if it is non zero then consumption declines

economic development technological change and growth the growth spiral money energy and imagination in the dynamics of the market processhans christoph binswanger new york and heidelberg springer 2013 pp xii 165 isbn 978 3 642 31880 1 jel 2013 0583

energy substitutability and modernization of energy consuming technologies abstract the paper examines long term strategies of capital modernization under different assumptions about embodied technological change energy regulation and substitutability between energy and capital to describe modernization of physical capital the authors use a vintage capital model with the constant elasticity of substitution between capital and energy the models take into account i availability of new more energy efficient equipment under energy saving technical progress ii possibility of buying new capital with various combinations of energy parameters and prices iii controlled scrapping of obsolete capital and iv energy regulation quotas the paper analyzes how the elasticity of substitution between capital and energy impacts the capital modernization policy in particular it is proven that the optimal lifetime of capital appears to be longer for a larger elasticity

capital accumulation and resource depletion a hartwick rule counterfactual how rich would resource abundant countries be if they had actually followed the hartwick rule invest resource rents in other assets over the past 30 years the authors use time series data on investments and rents on exhaustible resource extraction for 70 countries to answer this question the results are striking gabon trinidad and tobago and venezuela would all be as wealthy as the republic of korea while nigeria would be five times as well off as it is currently the authors also derive a more general rule for sustainability maintain positive constant genuine investment and use this to draw further empirical results

historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy abstract the purpose of this paper is to identify the changes in the impact of energy shocks on economic activity with an interest in assessing if an economy s vulnerability and resilience to shocks improved with economic development using data on the united kingdom over the last three hundred years the paper identifies supply aggregate demand and residual shocks to energy prices and estimates their changing influence on energy prices and gdp the results suggest that the impacts of supply shocks rose with its increasing dependence on coal and declined with its partial transition to oil however the transition from exporting coal to importing oil increased the negative impacts of demand shocks more generally the results indicate that improvements in vulnerability and resilience to shocks did not progress systematically as the economy developed instead the changes in impacts depended greatly on the circumstances related to the demand for and supply of energy sources if these experiences are transferable to future markets a transition to a diversified mix of renewable energy is likely to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience to energy price shocks

a model of redlining abstract we develop a model of mortgage redlining which captures the dynamic information gathering which is implied by the use of appraisals in mortgage granting in our model the precision of appraisals depends on the quantity of previous home sales in turn the precision of appraisals influences current home sales since when appraisals are inaccurate lenders require larger down payments there is thus a dynamic information externality in which past purchases influence current purchases as a consequence differential mortgage lending behavior will be sub optimal and the appearance of redlining may be justifiably subject to corrective action

constant savings rates and quasi arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints in the dasgupta heal solow stiglitz dhss model of capital accumulation and resource depletion we show the following equivalence if an efficient path has constant gross and net of population growth savings rates then population growth must be quasi arithmetic and the path is a maximin or a classical utilitarian optimum conversely if a path is optimal according to maximin or classical utilitarianism with constant elasticity of marginal utility under quasi arithmetic population growth then the gross and net of population growth savings rates converge asymptotically to constants

the impact of oil prices on gdp in european countries an empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration this paper investigates the existence of a long term relationship between oil prices and gdp in 12 european countries to account for the fact that economic activity responds asymmetrically to oil price shocks we propose an approach based on asymmetric cointegration our results show that while standard cointegration is rejected there is evidence for asymmetric cointegration between oil prices and gdp in the majority of the considered european countries

declining effects of oil price shocks in recent years output responses to oil price shocks have not only been weaker but have also reached their trough earlier this paper builds a model that incorporates a realistic structure of u s petroleum consumption and explores three possible explanations for the changes the possible factors considered are i deregulation in the transportation industry ii improved energy efficiency and iii a lower degree of persistence of oil price shocks under realistic parameter values the three factors play an important role quantitatively accounting for half of the reduction in the largest impact on output of an oil price shock over time

intertemporal equity and hartwick s rule in an exhaustible resource model in a standard exhaustible resource model it is known that if along a competitive path investment in the augmentable capital good equals the rents on the exhaustible resource known as hartwick s rule then the path is equitable in the sense that the consumption level is constant over time in this paper we show the converse of this result if a competitive path is equitable then it must satisfy hartwick s rule

economic growth energy intensity and the energy mix abstract this paper explores how changes in energy intensity and the switch to renewables can boost economic growth to do so we implement a dynamic panel data approach on a sample of 134 countries over the period 1960 to 2010 we incorporate a set of control variables related to human and physical capital socio economic conditions policies and institutions which have been widely used in the literature on economic growth given the current state of technology improving energy intensity is growth enhancing at the worldwide level moreover conditional to energy intensity moving from fossil fuels to frontier renewables wind solar wave or geothermic is also positively correlated with growth our results are robust to the specification of the dynamic panel with respect to alternative approaches pooled ols within group or system gmm and to alternative specifications accounting for heterogeneity across countries a set of institutional factors and other technical aspects

instrument choice and stranded assets in the transition to clean capital abstract this paper compares the impact of different climate mitigation policies mandates feebates performance standards and carbon pricing in a ramsey model with clean and polluting capital irreversible investment and a climate constraint these policy instruments imply different transitions to the same balanced growth path the optimal carbon price minimizes the discounted social cost of the transition to clean capital but may prompt premature retirement of existing polluting capacities and significant private costs in the form of stranded assets second best mandates and feebates affect new investment decisions without providing incentives to under use existing polluting equipment these instruments lead to higher discounted social costs but smoother abatement costs and do not result in premature retirement or stranded assets a phased in carbon price can avoid premature retirement but still result in stranded assets that is in a drop of wealth for the owners of polluting capital we discuss a potential trade off between the political feasibility and cost effectiveness of climate mitigation policies

irreversible capital and the stock market response to shocks in profitability this paper develops a vintage model of capital accumulation to identify the structural linkage between shocks to input or output prices and a firm s stock market value the model accounts for a substantial part of the sample variation in excess returns thus providing evidence for a systematic link between the stock market valuation of firms and the economic factors that affect their profitability the 1973 74 oil shock is shown to have had a strong impact on excess returns firms whose capital consisted of vintages built when energy was relatively cheap were hit the hardest in value copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

to build or not to build capital stocks and climate policy abstract we investigate i the impact of emission reduction policy on investment in polluting infrastructure such as coal fired power stations and ii optimal subsidies for clean alternatives with learning spillovers we build a general theoretical model and embed it in a fully calibrated integrated assessment model because emission reduction policy reduces investments in polluting assets short term emission reductions are enhanced our irreversibility effect thus stranded assets in this fuel using sector have distinctive properties we also provide a simple formula for how the optimal subsidy to deployment of a clean sector depends on its rate of learning by doing and on its socially optimal growth so if the sector should grow faster for other reasons its optimal subsidy is increased showing that its optimal growth rate is faster still our acceleration effect our calibrations show that to limit global climate change to 2 c warming investments in coal fired power stations must end very soon considering second best settings we show that carbon taxes achieve stringent policy targets more efficiently but subsidies to the clean sector deliver higher welfare and are more efficient when policy targets are more mild

monetary compensations in climate policy through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment the case of oil exporting countries this paper investigates the compensations that major oil producers have claimed for since the kyoto protocol in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of climate policy on their economies the amount of these adverse impacts is assessed through a general equilibrium model which endogenizes both the reduction of oil exportation revenues under international climate policy and the macroeconomic effect of carbon pricing on middle east s economy we show that compensating the drop of exportation revenues does not offset gdp and welfare losses because of the time profile of the general equilibrium effects when considering instead compensation based on gdp losses the effectiveness of monetary transfers proves to be drastically limited by general equilibrium effects in opened economies the main channels of this efficiency gap are investigated and its magnitude proves to be conditional upon strategic and policy choices of the middle east this leads us to suggest that other means than direct monetary compensating transfers should be discussed to engage the middle east in climate policies

a dynamic equilibrium of electricity consumption and gdp in hong kong an empirical investigation abstract public debates on electricity policy in hong kong focus on the regulation regime but seldom discuss the macroeconomic impact in this paper we use the novel dataset on electricity consumption and report the following findings 1 there is a long run equilibrium relationship between real gdp and electricity consumption 2 a one way causal effect exists from electricity consumption to real gdp 3 a significant adjustment process occurs when equilibrium is interrupted 4 there exists possible structural change in the relationship between electricity consumption and economic activities in 1990s

electricity prices and consumers long term technology choices evidence from heating investments abstract this paper studies consumers s sensitivity to energy costs at the moment of making a long term energy technology investment the analysis exploits local variation in regulated electricity distribution prices that are persistent over time and therefore a good measure of long term price expectations price impacts are estimated on extensive administrative registry data of private persons acting as home builders in finland during 2006 2011 the results show that electricity prices notably influence builders choices and that electricity tax increases have induced demand for technologies based on renewable energy the results on the comprehensive set of individual level characteristics reveal that technology choices vary systematically across households current dwelling status and the education level have the strongest influence on the choice probabilities price sensitivity is found to be lower for low income households and to vary by the current dwelling status and type of building location

the rise fall and sustainability of capital resource economies in debates about green accounting it is sometimes argued that a positive value of aggregate investments indicates that an economy is developing sustainably asheim 1994 and pezzey 1994 have shown that this is wrong using a version of the well known dasgupta heal economy with one capital and one non renewable resource stock as a counterexample asheim s proof referred to the unproved assumptions that in such an economy a higher rate of time preference induces higher initial consumption and vice versa and that optimal consumption is initially rising and then falling here we show that these assumptions do hold true under certain circumstances thereby also proving some of dasgupta and heal s other conjectures about sustainability

redlining in boston do mortgage lenders discriminate against neighborhoods historically lenders have been accused of redlining minority neighborhoods as well as refusing to lend to minority applicants considerable bank regulation is designed to prevent both actions however the strong correlation between race and neighborhood makes it difficult to distinguish the impact of geographic discrimination from the effects of racial discrimination previous studies have failed to untangle these two influences in part because of severe omitted variable bias the data set in this paper allows the distinct effects of race and geography to be identified and it shows that the evidence for redlining is weak

dynamic factor demands and the effects of energy price shocks a dynamic model is used to understand how sharp changes in energy prices affect investment behavior employment and energy use the authors discuss the theory behind their model selection model specifications estimation methods and data list parameter estimates and elasticities for the selected model and describe the simulations they conclude that 1 the data strongly reject the hypothesis of constant returns to scale within their specification of aggregate production 2 the data indicate adjustment costs on labor are small and 3 their results help reconcile some of the conflicting estimates of energy demand elasticities appearing in recent literature 23 references 3 figures 3 tables

putty clay technology and stock market volatility abstract firms first order conditions imply that stock returns equal investment returns from the production technology much applied work uses the adjustment cost technology which implies that the realized return is high when the investment capital ratio is high this paper derives for an arbitrary stochastic discount factor the investment return implied by the putty clay technology the combination of capital heterogeneity and irreversibility creates a novel channel for return volatility the investment return is high when the ratio of investment to gross job creation is low empirically the putty clay feature helps account for u s stock market data

the economic effects of energy price shocks large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the u s economy since the 1970s turmoil in the middle east rising energy prices in the u s and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance this paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate what are energy price shocks and where do they come from how responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices how do consumers expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks how do energy price shocks affect u s real output inflation and stock prices why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions why has there been a surge in the price of oil in recent years why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and if so why as the paper demonstrates it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets when answering these questions

energy price shocks and the macroeconomy the role of consumer durables so far the literature on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with energy price shocks uses energy on the production side only in these models energy shocks are responsible for only a negligible share of output fluctuations we study the robustness of this finding by explicitly modeling private consumption of energy at the household level in addition to energy use at the firm level to account for total energy use in the economy additionally we distinguish between investment in consumer durables and investment in capital goods the model economy is calibrated to match total energy use and durable goods consumption as observed in the u s data simulation results indicate that despite higher total energy use this economy has an even smaller proportion of output fluctuations attributable to energy price shocks productivity shocks continue to be the primary force behind business cycle fluctuations the driving force behind our results is that the household now has the flexibility to rebalance its investment portfolio specifically the energy price hike is absorbed by reducing durable goods investment more than investment in capital goods thereby cushioning the hit to future production at the expense of current consumption hence our model better matches the consumption volatility observed in the data jel classification e32 q43

resource depletion and sustainability in small open economies abstract exogenous price changes affect the amount that a small country exporting natural resource commodities must invest to sustain its consumption level the necessary amount is given by the difference between hotelling rent and the discounted sum of future terms of trade effects capital gains the latter term is found to be large relative to the former in the case of petroleum depletion in indonesia this suggests that resource rich countries will need to invest more than previously expected to sustain their consumption levels if natural resource prices continue their long term historical decline

common currencies vs monetary independence we study the optimal monetary policy in a two country open economy model under two monetary arrangements a multiple currencies controlled by independent policy makers b common currencies with a centralized policy maker our findings suggest that i monetary policy competition leads to higher long term inflation and interest rates with large welfare losses ii the inflation bias and the consequent losses are larger when countries are unable to commit to future policies iii the welfare losses from higher long term inflation dominates the welfare costs of losing the ability to react optimally to shocks

factor price uncertainty technology choice and investment delay abstract this paper develops a theory of putty clay investment under factor price uncertainty using a brownian motion framework ex ante the firm faces a choice of technologies that differ by their relative factor intensities but ex post technologies are leontief the presence of competing technologies and factor price uncertainty can cause delay of profitable investments for a monopolist firm facing a one time investment decision furthermore uncertainty can cause an existing firm to wait for more extreme operating cost differentials before switching technologies these delays in investment are present even without considering the effect of uncertainty on the firm s choice of scale

monetary policy response to oil price shocks how should monetary authorities react to an oil price shock this paper shows that in a noncompetitive economy policies that perfectly stabilize prices entail large welfare costs hence explaining the reluctance of policymakers to enforce them the policy trade off is nontrivial because oil energy is an input to both production and consumption as welfare maximizing policies are hard to implement and communicate i derive a simple interest rate rule that depends only on observables but mimics the optimal plan in all dimensions the optimal rule is hard on core inflation but accommodates oil price changes

slow oil shocks and the weakening of the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many papers have been documenting and analysing the asymmetry and the weakening of the oil price macroeconomy relationship as off the early eighties while there seems to be a consensus about the factors causing the asymmetry namely adjustment costs which offset the benefits of low energy prices the debate about the weakening of the relationship is not over yet moreover the alternative oil price specifications which have been proposed by mork 1989 lee et al 1995 and hamilton 1996 to restore the stability of the relationship fail to granger cause output or unemployment in post 1980 data by using the concept of accelerations of the oil price we show that the weakening of this relationship corresponds to the appearance of slow oil price increases which have less impact on the economy when filtering out these slow oil price variations from the sample we manage to rehabilitate the causality running from the oil price to the macroeconomy and show that far from weakening the oil price accelerations gdp relationship has even been growing stronger since the early eighties

measuring changes in local house prices an empirical investigation of alternative methodologies abstract this paper investigates whether reliable house price indices can be constructed using a limited set of descriptive variables on a large number of observations four primary index methods are compared 1 median sale price 2 restricted hedonic 3 repeat sales and 4 the assessed value technique the paper examines the precision and accuracy of each of the alternative indices

the role of information externalities and scale economies in home mortgage lending decisions abstract theories of rational redlining suggest a low volume of sales should lead to greater uncertainty in house price appraisals making the mortgage loan less attractive to lenders this paper represents the first test of this information externality theory using a well specified model of lending in our preferred model information externalities are relevant but the marginal effect diminishes quickly with only about 10 percent of applications materially disadvantaged by a low volume of sales our results also support the presence of bank level economies of scale to reviewing applications in a given area with increased bank level applications associated with higher acceptance rates

allocation of co2 emissions permits a general equilibrium analysis of policy instruments what are the effects of different ways of allocating co2 emissions permits under a tradable permit scheme numerical simulations show that using the permit revenue to lower existing taxes implies by far the lowest welfare cost but also a large reduction in employment in energy intensive sectors and substantial stranded costs grandfathering the permits compensates owners for losses on stranded investments but comes at a welfare cost and does not mitigate the adjustment imposed on the economy finally distributing the permits according to market shares reduces the degree of sectoral adjustment but also comes at a high welfare cost

sustainability constraints versus optimality versus intertemporal concern and axioms versus data sustainable sustained or survivable development are defined here as distinct sustainability constraints on intertemporal distribution in a context which ignores uncertainty environmental and intratemporal concerns such constraints are neither self contradictory nor redundant for they can conflict with maximizing the present value of utility optimality nor inferior since the axioms underlying optimality are ethically arbitrary and refuted by empirical psychological data axiomatic arguments may clarify but cannot resolve debates about intertemporal concerns data suggest that sustainability constraints are not respected and that intertemporal welfare functions containing a preference for sustained improvement may better reflect what bodies politic mean by sustainability

the roles of inter fuel substitution and inter market contagion in driving energy prices evidences from china s coal market abstract coal has been dominating energy supply and consumption in china with the country becoming the largest energy supplier and consumer worldwide due to inter fuel substitution of crude oil and inter market contagion of international coal market china s coal price might be interrelated with crude oil price and international coal price however the precise roles of these two effects in determining china s coal price are unknown this paper contributes to previous literature by investigating this issue we find that co movements between china s coal price and crude oil price largely hinge on the shares of oil and coal in china s energy mix while its co movements with international coal price depend on scales of coal trade inter fuel substitution dominated the interaction of china s coal market with other energy types but the importance of inter market contagion has been increasing we also find that china might have become an originator for driving the returns of crude oil and international coal in particular after 2008 furthermore china s coal market is still a net volatility recipient for shocks from both crude oil market and international coal market given the increased integration of global energy markets we anticipate this paper to provide a better understanding on the dynamic changes in china s coal prices

oil prices and economic activity an asymmetric cointegration approach the aim of this paper is to study the long term relationship between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gdp to account for asymmetries existing in the links between the two variables we propose an approach based on asymmetric cointegration our empirical analysis concerns the u s economy but also the g7 europe and euro area economies results indicate that while standard cointegration is rejected there is evidence for asymmetric cointegration between oil prices and gdp

economic systems private rights and public problems the global economics of intellectual property in the 21st centurykeith e maskus washington d c peterson institute for international economics 2012 pp xvi 373 paper isbn 978 0 88132 507 2 jel 2012 1527

net energy analysis in a ramsey hotelling growth model this article presents a dynamic growth model with energy as an input in the production function the available stock of energy resources is ordered by a quality parameter based on energy accounting the energy return on energy invested eroi in our knowledge this is the first paper where eroi fits in a neoclassical growth model with individual utility maximization and market equilibrium establishing the economic use of net energy analysis on a firmer theoretical ground all necessary concepts to link neoclassical economics and eroi are discussed before their use in the model and a comparative static analysis of the steady states of a simplified version of the model is presented

expectations learning and the changing relationship between oil prices and the macroeconomy this paper estimates a structural general equilibrium model to investigate the changing relationship between the oil price and macroeconomic variables the oil price through the role of oil in production and consumption affects aggregate demand and supply in the model the assumption of rational expectations is relaxed in favor of learning oil prices therefore affect the economy through an additional channel i e through their effect on the formation of agents beliefs the estimated learning dynamics indicates that economic agents perceptions about the effects of oil prices on the economy have changed over time oil prices were perceived to have large effects on output and inflation in the 1970s but only milder effects after the mid 1980s since expectations play a large role in the determination of output and inflation the effects of oil price increases on expectations can magnify the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks in the estimated model in fact the implied responses of output and inflation to oil price shocks were much more pronounced in the 1970s than in 2008 therefore through the time variation in the impact of oil prices on beliefs the paper can successfully explain the observed weakening of the effects of oil price shocks on real activity and inflation