activity choice labor allocation and forest use in malawi this article examines the determinants of activity choice affecting forest use among low income households in malawi data from three villages are used to estimate a system of household labor share equations for maize production forest employment and non forest employment a system estimation approach is used to identify factors influencing the competing and synergistic livelihood strategies which households undertake at the forest margin results from constrained maximum likelihood estimation indicate heightened incentives to degrade forests when returns to forest use are high factors reducing forest pressure include favorable returns to non forest employment secondary education of the household head and wealth

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

sequential negotiations with loss averse buyers abstract this paper analyzes sequential negotiations with exogenous breakdown risk between a risk neutral seller and a loss averse buyer who is privately informed about his valuation i show that compared to the risk neutral benchmark loss aversion on the buyer s side softens the rent efficiency trade off for the seller the reason is that the higher the buyer s valuation is the more he has to lose by rejecting the seller s offer thus in equilibrium the seller s profits and overall efficiency are both higher than in the risk neutral case moreover i also show that loss aversion has a redistributive effect by increasing the equilibrium payoff of some low valuation buyers and decreasing that of high valuation ones

price uncertainty the competitive firm and the dual theory of choice under risk abstract we analyze a competitive firm facing output price uncertainty in yaari s dual theory of choice under risk in yaari s dual theory the preference functional is linear in profit but is compatible with risk aversion or risk inclination we obtain a characterization of output and input decisions of firms which unlike the von neumann morgenstern theory of the firm closely resembles that of the theory of the firm under certainty we find intuitive comparative statics effects of increases in risk and risk aversion we show how hotelling s lemma can be applied to find the firm s output supply and input demand functions

on risk aversion and bargaining outcomes abstract we revisit the well known result that asserts that an increase in the degree of one s risk aversion improves the position of one s opponents to this end we apply yaari s dual theory of choice under risk both to nash s bargaining problem and to rubinstein s game of alternating offers under this theory unlike under expected utility risk aversion influences the bargaining outcome only when this outcome is random namely when the players are risk lovers in this case an increase in one s degree of risk aversion increases one s share of the pie

agricultural household models extensions applications and policy this book presents the basic model of an agricultural household that underlies most of the case studies undertaken so far the model assumes that households are price takers and is therefore recursive the decisions modeled include those affecting production and the demand for inputs and those affecting consumption and the supply of labor comparative results on selected elasticities are presented for a number of economies the empirical significance of the approach is demonstrated in a comparison of models that treat production and consumption decisions separately and those in which the decisionmaking process is recursive the book summarizes the implications of agricultural pricing policy for the welfare of farm households marketed surplus the demand for nonagricultural goods and services the rural labor market budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings in addition it is shown that the basic model can be extended in order to explore the effects of government policy on crop composition nutritional status health saving and investment and to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the effects on budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings methodological topics primarily the data requirements of the basic model and its extensions along with aggregation market interaction uncertainty and market imperfections are discussed the most important methodological issues the question of the recursive property of these models is also discussed

alcohol consumption and human capital a retrospective study of the literature grossman proposed an individual s health can be viewed as one aspect of their human capital following this line of thought a number of recent papers have reported a positive impact of alcohol consumption on earnings the rationale for the existence of such a relationship is the positive impact of alcohol on physical and mental health we conduct a meta analysis to determine whether such factors as the estimation technique the presence of ex drinkers in the sample possible sample selection bias and publication bias may all contribute to these findings an additional suggestion for the positive relationship between alcohol and wages is the presence of a common set of personality traits that determines drinking behaviour and also leads to higher earnings we examine this relationship by reviewing the literature that investigates if the personality influencing aspects of alcohol consumption influences measures of human capital we also survey the significant body of research that has examined how alcohol consumption has been found to influence educational outcomes and the work force participation of problem drinkers

do property rights promote investment but cause deforestation quasi experimental evidence from nicaragua abstract many policymakers argue that property rights decrease deforestation some theoretical papers also make this prediction arguing that property rights decrease discount rates applied to a long term investment in forestry however the effect is theoretically ambiguous the paper takes a novel instrumental variables approach based on nicaragua s agrarian reform to test for the effect using a new dataset nicaragua s 2001 agricultural census it finds that property rights significantly increase deforestation the model supported by the data suggests a likely mechanism for this relationship property rights increase investment increasing agricultural productivity and therefore the returns to deforestation

the morning after alcohol misuse and employment problems using a rich recent and nationally representative longitudinal survey specifically designed to examine alcohol use and associated problems we investigate the effects of alcohol misuse on a series of understudied and perhaps less common employment problems such problems include being fired or laid off from a job sustained unemployment and conflicts with a supervisor and or co worker after controlling for time invariant omitted variables via fixed effects estimation we find evidence that three measures of alcohol misuse are significantly related to employment problems the results offer new information on the potential adverse labour market effects of alcohol misuse and shed light on potential mechanisms through which alcohol misuse may impact intensive labour supply and or wages

asset diversification in yaari s dual theory abstract this paper presents an application of the dual theory of choice under uncertainty to the problem of asset diversification it is shown that when there are two or more risky assets conditions which are sufficient for expected utility maximizers to diversify among n assets are also sufficient for dual agents to do so this result is in contrast to the case of one risky and one safe asset in which dual agents invest all their funds in only one of the assets while expected utility maximizers usually diversify

market integration development and smallholder forest clearance a significant proportion of deforestation in latin america is caused by smallholders living at the frontier of modern rural markets this paper develops a household model that examines the roles of market integration subsistence time preference and non timber forest uses in the household s decision to clear forest for future agriculture the model explores the possible impacts of development programs that encourage market integration the model shows that rates of forest clearance should be exacerbated in areas in which market integration is most rapid an empirical estimation using household data from the tsimane people of bolivia tests hypotheses from the model

insurance with multiple insurers a game theoretic approach this paper studies the set of pareto optimal insurance contracts and the core of an insurance game our setting allows multiple insurers with translation invariant preferences we characterise the pareto optimal contracts which determines the shape of the indemnities closed form and numerical solutions are found for various preferences that the insurance players might have determining associated premiums with any given optimal pareto contract is another problem for which economic based arguments are further discussed we also explain how one may link the recent fast growing literature on risk based optimality criteria to the pareto optimality criterion and we show that the latter is much more general than the former one which according to our knowledge has not been pointed out by now further we extend some of our results when model risk is included i e there is some uncertainty with the risk model and or the insurance players make decisions based on divergent beliefs about the underlying risk these robust optimal contracts are investigated and we show how one may find robust and pareto efficient contracts which is a key decision making problem under uncertainty

the social welfare implications decomposability and geometry of the sen family of poverty indices in this paper we propose a unified framework for the sen indices of poverty intensity that shows an explicit connection between the indices and the common underlying social evaluation function we also identify the common multiplicative decomposition of the indices that allows simple and similar geometric interpretations and easy numerical computation jel classification c000 h000 o150 implications en termes de bien etre collectif decomposabilite et geometrie de la famille d indices de pauvretea la sen dans ce memoire les auteurs proposent un cadre d analyse integre des indices d intensite de pauvretea la sen qui souligne la relation explicite entre ces indices et la fonction sociale d evaluation commune qui les soustend les auteurs identifient aussi la decomposition multiplicative commune de ces indices qui permet d en donner des interpretations geometriques simples et idoines et de faire des calculs numeriques faciles

bargaining and boldness abstract we study a multiperson bargaining problem with general risk preferences through the use of shaked s game of cycling offers with exogenous breakdown if preferences are smooth then as the risk of breakdown vanishes the limiting outcome is one in which bargainers are equally marginally bold where a bargainer s marginal boldness measures his willingness to risk disagreement in return for a marginal improvement in his position under smoothness any ordinal nash solution is an equally marginally bold outcome however unlike the concept of the ordinal nash solution a unique equally marginally bold outcome exists in natural cases in particular if all bargainers have risk averse preferences of the rank dependent expected utility type for these preferences the equally marginally bold outcome maximizes a bargaining power adjusted asymmetric nash product where the degree of asymmetry is determined by the disparity in the marginal valuation of certainty among bargainers journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c78 d81

saving and economic shocks in rural pakistan abstract this paper adapts the recent methodology of paxson to study saving rates in rural pakistan particular attention is paid to differences in marginal rates of financial and physical saving and how these vary across income groups and by direction of income shocks households exhibit more difficulty in smoothing consumption after successive shocks than with a single shock the study also observes marginal rates of saving out of international remittances and lump sum pensions unlike domestic remittances international remittances appear to be treated much as transitory income shocks

a prospect theory nash bargaining solution and its stochastic stability abstract we consider the long run outcomes of bargaining games when players obey prospect theory we extend the evolutionary bargaining model of young 1993 to a two stage nash demand game two players simultaneously choose whether to exercise an outside option in the first stage and play the nash demand game in the second stage which will be reached only if neither player exercises the outside option we address the influence on the stochastically stable division of reference dependent preferences where the reference point is the value of the outside option we show that the division consistently differs from the nash bargaining solution under expected utility theory inspired by this we propose a prospect theory nash bargaining solution which coincides with the stochastically stable division

existence and uniqueness of ordinal nash outcomes abstract in this paper we present necessary and sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of ordinal nash outcomes these outcomes are derived from the ordinal nash solution a reinterpretation and an extension of the nash bargaining solution that allows bargainers to have preference relations that are more general than expected utility our task is undertaken by the construction of a new notion called induced utilities journal of economic literature classification number c78

local risk aversion in the rank dependent expected utility model first order versus second order effects abstract we evaluate locally the risk premium of a lottery in the framework of the rdeu model as the sum of two terms the first is a measure of risk aversion while the second is a measure of spreading aversion

a generalization of pratt arrow measure to nonexpected utility preferences and inseparable probability and utility the pratt arrow measure of local risk aversion is generalized for then dimensional state preference model of choice under uncertainty in which the decision maker may have inseparable subjective probabilities and utilities unobservable stochastic prior wealth and or smooth nonexpected utility preferences local risk aversion is measured by the matrix of derivatives of the decision maker s risk neutral probabilities without reference to true subjective probabilities or riskless wealth positions and comparative risk aversion is measured without requiring agreement on true probabilities risk neutral probabilities and their derivatives are shown to be sufficient statistics for approximately optimal investment and financing decisions in complete markets for contingent claims

learning by doing and learning from others human capital and technical change in agriculture household level panel data from a nationally representative sample of rural indian households describing the adoption and profitability of high yielding seed varieties hyvs associated with the green revolution are used to test the implications of a model incorporating learning by doing and learning spillovers the estimates indicate that i imperfect knowledge about the management of the new seeds was a significant barrier to adoption ii this barrier diminished as farmer experience with the new technologies increased iii own experience and neighbors experience with hyvs significantly increased hyv profitability and iv farmers do not fully incorporate the village returns to learning in making adoption decisions

do drinkers earn less theoretical work by becker and others on human capital led initially to empirical research on the determinates of earnings interest in human capital has now spread to other areas especially health this movement is in conjunction with societal concerns regarding the role of diet and environmental factors on human well being and performance following becker 1 and grossman 9 economists expect to find a significant relationship between health and earnings health aspects of human capital have been extensively explored since the early work of grossman 9 10 good health is both beyond the control of the individual exogenous as a result of genetic factors and random events and controllable endogenous through the regulation of activities such as smoking drinking eating exercise and other informed choices this study examines the relation between earnings and drinking curiously little rigorous empirical work has been done on the relation between earnings and drinking irving fisher s claim to the contrary 1 there is little evidence that prohibition led to substantial if any productivity increases although it is established that excessive drinking leads to poor health the empirical evidence regarding earnings and drinking is mixed and inconclusive according to the u s government abusive drinkers earn less in their biennial reports to congress the national institute on alcohol abuse and alcoholism niaaa estimates the economic cost to society of alcohol abuse approximately half of this cost arises from the estimated loss in earnings productivity due to abusive drinking 2 their approach consists of estimating a wage equation which includes human capital variables as well as a dichotomous abusive drinking variable and quantity of alcohol consumed 3 berger and leigh 3 used a sample selection model to test whether drinkers earned more or less than nondrinkers they divided their sample from the 1972 73 quality of employment survey into two categories drinkers and nondrinkers using a sample selection correction estimator hedonic wage regressions for each category and by sex were estimated they found that drinkers moderate and abusive combined earned more than nondrinkers comparisons were then made between wages from each regression with demographic and human capital variables set at

agricultural expansion and deforestation modelling the impact of population market forces and property rights abstract this paper compares four different modelling approaches to agricultural expansion and deforestation and explores the implications of assumptions about the household objectives the labour market and the property rights regime a major distinction is made between population and market based explanations many of the popular policy prescriptions are based on the population approach assuming subsistence behaviour and limited market integration within a more realistic particularly for the long term effects market approach well intentioned policies such as agricultural intensification programmes may boost deforestation many forest frontier contexts are also characterized by forest clearing giving farmers land rights deforestation becomes an investment to the farmer and a title establishment strategy land titling and credit programmes may therefore increase deforestation

nash bargaining and risk aversion it is widely accepted among axiomatic bargaining theorists that if one bargainer is more risk averse than a second the second will be a tougher bargaining opponent than the first against all opponents we argue that this relationship between risk aversion and bargaining toughness is both highly fragile and more nuanced than previously articulated in the nash and kalai smorodinsky bargaining frameworks we establish that when a bargainer is compared with a second who is almost globally more risk averse than the first the supposedly immutable relationship between bargaining effectiveness and risk aversion evaporates specifically we identify an upper hemicontinuity failure of a correspondence which maps the power set of all lotteries to those utility pairs that satisfy our almost global comparative risk aversion relation on these subsets we trace the consensus view that tougher bargainers are less risk averse to an exclusive focus on precisely the point at which this correspondence implodes

permanent household income and consumption in urban south america milton friedman s permanent income hypothesis pih is considerably more complex and difficult to test than it appears at first sight which is why certain of its postulates still cannot be accepted or rejected with certainty one of the chief difficulties is that of separating the effects on consumption of permanent income which is unobservable and of various observable household characteristics which may be highly correlated with permanent income but may also be presumed to affect consumption directly this difficulty can be overcome provided a variable can be found which is associated with permanent income but has no independent direct effect on the propensity to consume if households are grouped by classes of that variable the permanent consumption propensity or elasticity can be estimated from mean income and consumption in the groups this technique requires the assumption of zero mean transitory income in each group but does not depend on the postulate that transitory income is uncorrelated with consumption for these reasons it cannot be applied to individual households this paper presents and estimates a model which separates the direct and indirect effects on consumption of a series of observable characteristics using regression techniques on individual household observations this makes it possible to estimate all the parameters of the model both the consumption propensity or elasticity and the contribution to permanent income of each observable explanatory variable the technique still requires that at least one of the explanatory variables affect consumption only through permanent income but for all other variables both direct and indirect influences can be estimated and the propensity to consume a given income can vary among households with different characteristics another principal problem with the pih is the assumption that transitory income and consumption are uncorrelated efforts to test this postulate can lead to very different results ranging from agreement with the hypothesis to findings of high propensities to consume transitory income see robert ferber pp 1306 09 this inconsistency and continued controversy over the hypothesis is due to the fact that permanent income cannot be estimated exactly but can be known only with an error which is conceptually distinct from transitory income empirical work on the pih has uniformly overlooked this fact treating estimates of permanent income as exact and regarding the whole of the unexplained residual as transitory income the present model explicitly distinguishes the estimation error from the error of transitory income or consumption the two transitory components can then be assumed to be uncorrelated while the part of permanent income which is not explained is consumed exactly like the explained part whether residual income and consumption appear to be correlated or not then depends on the relative sizes of these two components the unexplained permanent part and the true transitory part this technique has the further advantage that estimating the variance of the error of estimation makes it possible to tell how well a set of observable variables explain permanentincome this explanation may be better than the brookings institution robert solow richard eckaus and robert hall supervised the dissertation 1974 on which this article is based i am particularly grateful to ross williams and robert hall for help in specifying and estimating the model and to denisard alves for a crucial suggestion william cline irwin friend ricardo ffrench davis and robert ferber provided helpful comments on earlier versions subsequent discussions with surjit bhalla and robert lawrence have been most useful i am also much indebted to the managing editor and to a referee for improvements in the final version

drinking and academic performance in high school i investigate the extent to which negative alcohol use coefficients in grade point average regressions reflect unobserved heterogeneity rather than direct effects of drinking using 2001 and 2003 youth risk behaviour survey data on high school students results illustrate that omitted factors are quite important drinking coefficient magnitudes fall substantially in regressions that control for risk and time preference mental health self esteem and consumption of other addictive substances moreover the impact of binge drinking is negligible for students who are less risk averse heavily discount the future or use other drugs however effects that remain significant after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and are relatively large for risk averse future oriented and drug free students suggest that binge drinking might slightly worsen academic performance consistent with this the relationship between grades and drinking without binging is small and insignificant on the extensive margin and posi

payoff equivalence in sealed bid auctions and the dual theory of choice under risk abstract this paper considers single item auctions in the private values framework with buyers whose preferences satisfy the axioms of yaari s econometrica 55 1987 95 dual theory of choice under risk it is shown that when their valuations are independently distributed risk averse buyers are indifferent among all the auctions contained in a large family of mechanisms that includes the standard auctions

the probability premium a graphical representation we illustrate that pratt s probability premium can be given a simple graphical representation allowing a direct comparison to the equivalent but more prevalent concept of risk premium under expected utility we also show that the probability premium s graphical representation under the dual theory mimics that of the risk premium under expected utility

is there an environmental kuznets curve for deforestation abstract this paper examines the relationship between deforestation and gross domestic product gdp per capita in particular whether an inverted u relationship indicative of worsening then improving deforestation exists between them we note that previous work has used models with restrictive assumptions and recommend a more flexible random coefficients specification which allows for a greater degree of cross country heterogeneity empirical results using data for 76 developing countries between 1961 1992 suggest that the inverted u shaped relationship observed in other studies does not appear to be an empirical regularity with our less restrictive specification statistical tests indicate that this specification is supported by the data we argue that such results are not surprising in view of the wide diversity of physical and social characteristics that exist across countries

the effect of agricultural policies on land use and environmental quality in this paper i consider the environmental quality gains that may be achieved by reducing agricultural income supports a new methodology is developed to estimate land use shares in an application to wisconsin milk price support reductions result in shifts of marginal agricultural land to forest reducing soil erosion and providing off site water quality improvements the environmental benefits are estimated to be at least as large as the decreased welfare burden on consumers and taxpayers indicating a central role for environmental quality considerations in motivating policy reforms and a more efficient means of achieving the environmental quality goals of land retirement programs

the interaction of population growth and environmental quality an important question for policy is whether holding constant per capita income and other relevant factors population pressures have a significant effect upon environmental degradation the authors examine the effect of population pressures upon deforestation in 64 developing countries in an attempt to provide relevant empirical findings data on deforestation were drawn from the food and agriculture organizations production yearbook results suggest that a relationship exists between per capita income and deforestation and that for africa rural population density shifts the relationship upward the increase in the rate of deforestation levels off as income increases the rate of growth in per capita income also has a significant negative impact upon deforestation although the magnitude of the effect is small the authors close in stressing that reducing the rate of population growth is not necessarily the best way to reduce the rate of deforestation deforestation in developing countries is really a problem of market failure since property rights are often neither defined nor enforced there is essentially no private cost of deforestation with no long term stake in the land people have no incentive to use land efficiently this situation must be addressed in conjunction with the problems of poverty and population growth

the costs of carbon sequestration a revealed preference approach increased concem by policy makers with the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable attention to the possibility of encouraging the growth of forests as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide national academy of sciences nas 1992 james p bruce et al 1996 1 the kyoto protocol to the united nations framework convention on climate change 1997 which establishes emission reduction targets for the united states and other industrialized nations states that carbon sequestration can be used by participating nations to achieve their targets moreover even before the kyoto agreement this approach had become an explicit element of both u s and intemational climate policies u s department of energy 1991 united nations general assembly 1992 william j clinton and albert gore 1993 this high level of interest has been due in part to suggestions that sufficient lands are available to use the approach to mitigate a substantial share of annual carbon dioxide c02 emissions greg marland 1988 daniel a lashof and dennis a tirpak 1989 mark c trexler 1991 and claims that growing trees to sequester carbon is a relatively inexpensive means of combating climate change roger a sedjo and allen m solomon 1989 daniel j dudek and alice leblanc 1990 nas 1992 in other words the serious attention given by policy makers to carbon sequestration can partly be explained by implicit assertions about respective marginal cost functions i develop and demonstrate a method by which the costs of carbon sequestration can be estimated on the basis of evidence from landowners behavior when confronted with the opportunity costs of alternative land uses the simplest of previous economic analyses derived single point estimates of average costs associated with particular sequestration levels marland 1988 sedjo and solomon 1989 dudek and leblanc 1990 edwin s rubin et al 1992 omar masera et al 1995 often it has been assumed that land opportunity costs are zero g van kooten et al 1992 j k winjum et al 1992 new york state energy office 1993 robert k dixon et al 1994 another set of studies essentially engineering costing models has constructed marginal cost schedules by using information on revenues and costs of production for altemative uses on representative types or locations of land and then sorting these in ascending order of cost robert j moulton and kenneth r richards 1990 richards et al 1993 simulation models include a model of the lost profits due to removing land from agricultural production peter j parks and ian w hardie 1995 a mathematical programming model of the agricultural sector and the timber market richard m adams et al 1993 a related model incorporating the effects of agricultural price support programs j m callaway and bruce mccarl 1996 and a dynamic simulation model of forestry susan swinehart 1996 lastly an analysis by andrew j plantinga 1995 adopts land use elasticities from an econometric study to estimate sequestration costs we draw on some of the best features of the previous studies including the carbon levelization method of moulton and richards john f kennedy school of government harvard university 79 john f kennedy street cambridge ma 02138 and resources for the future richard newell supplied excellent research assistance and valuable comments on a previous version were provided by lawrence goulder william nordhaus andrew plantinga kenneth richards two anonymous referees participants in seminars at the universities of california at los angeles and santa barbara the university of maryland the university of michigan the university of texas harvard university stanford university yale university resources for the future and the national bureau of economic research the author alone is resdonsible for any errors 1 after fossil fuel combustion deforestation is the second largest source of carbon dioxide emissions estimates of annual global emissions from deforestation range from 0 6 to 2 8 billion tons compared with slightly less than 6 0 billion tons annually from fossil fuel combustion cement manufacturing and natural gas flaring combined r a houghton 1991 t m smith et al 1993

on the interpretation of the nash bargaining solution and its extension to non expected utility preferences the paper reexamines the foundations of the axiomatic nash bargaining theory more specifically it questions the interpretation of the nash bargaining solution and extends it to a family of non expected utility preferences a bargaining problem is presented as x d 2 where x is a set of feasible agreements described in physical terms d is the disagreement event and 1 and 2 are preferences defined on the space of lotteries in which the prizes are the elements in x and d the ordinal nash bargaining solution is defined as an agreement y satisfying for all p e 0 1 and for all x e x if px 1 y then py 2 x and if px 2 y then py x where px is the lottery which gives x with probability p and d with probability 1 p revisions of the pareto symmetry and iia axioms characterize the ordinal nash bargaining solution in the expected utility case this definition is equivalent to that of the nash bargaining solution however this definition is to be preferred since it allows a statement of the nash bargaining solution in everyday language and makes possible its natural extension to a wider set of preferences it also reveals the logic behind some of the more interesting results of the nash bargaining solution such as the comparative statics of risk aversion and the connection between the nash bargaining solution and strategic models

manipulation of preferences and relative utilitarianism abstract given n agents with who wish to divide m commodities consider the n person noncooperative game with strategies consisting of concave increasing utility functions and whose outcomes are the relative utilitarian solution any constrained equal income competitive equilibrium allocation for the true utilities is shown to ba a nash equilibrium outcome for the noncooperative game conditions are presented under which these are the only pure strategy equilibrium outcomes journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c78 d71

agricultural change rural labor markets and forest clearing an illustrative case from the philippines this paper studies the links between agricultural employment and upland activities at a tropical forest margin a model of lowland agricultural production is combined with a model of labor allocation on a representative upland farm to show how labor productivity agricultural wages and the returns from upland activities determine rates of forest clearing farm level data from the philippines demonstrate how agricultural intensification in the form of lowland irrigation development led to an increase in labor demand an increase in employment of upland inhabitants and small but statistically signi ficant reductions in rates of forest clearing

stochastic dominance in regret theory the regret theory of choice under uncertainty is known to admit intransitivities in preference relations in this paper the stochastic dominance properties of the theory are examined it is shown that the usual definition of first stochastic dominance is not satisfied by regret theoretic preferences and that in general violations of first stochastic dominance are not merely permitted but required an exact characterization of the stochastic dominance rule corresponding to regret theoretic preferences is presented this concept is weaker than the usual definition but stronger than the notion of statewise dominance in which one prospect yields a preferred outcome with probability 1 theories of choice under uncertainty have proliferated in recent years after a long period in which the expected utility eu approach of von neumann and morgenstern 1944 was pre eminent the breakdown of the dominance in eu theory reflects the increasing body of evidence that the choices made by many people systematically violate the predictions of the theory the axiomatic foundations of the theory and in particular the independence axiom have also received severe questioning ever since the famous critique of allais 1953

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

a cardinal characterization of the rubinstein safra thomson axiomatic bargaining theory in a recent paper rubinstein safra and thomson rst have provided an interesting re examination of the widely applied nash solution for a two person bargaining problem they recast the usual nash bargaining problem into a more natural setting of feasible alternatives with a disagreement outcome the two players are then described by their risk preferences defined on the set of lotteries over the alternatives and the disagreement outcome this enables them to define an ordinal nash solution in terms of the agents risk preferences essentially their ordinal solution is an outcome that is immune against possible objections freeing the definition of the nash solution from utility naturally led rst to extending its scope to non expected utility neu preferences we contend however that the family of neu preferences considered by rst is unduly restrictive the assumptions imposed on the risk preferences by rst essentially exclude any members of the rank dependent expected utility rdeu and betweenness families that can accommodate the very choice paradoxes that stimulated the development of neu theory as these are two of the most extensively analyzed and widely applied neu models in the literature this seems to cast doubt on how broad an extension to neu preferences the rst approach affords we demonstrate however that rst s analysis can be modified so that their conclusion is valid in a wider class of preferences that can include examples of rdeu preferences this class consists of preferences that admit what we term a disagreement linear representation

poverty policies and deforestation the case of mexico this study examines the determinants and policy implications of deforestation in mexico and includes a brief review of the relevant empirical literature and a description of the theoretical model land use patterns and socioeconomic and physiogeographic factors are determinants data were obtained from digital maps of land use and soils and the 1990 population and 1991 agricultural censuses a simple 2 period equation formalizes the relationship between deforestation and poverty government policies and local land tenure in period 1 representative producers in municipalities have 4 options in allocating labor time wage generation agricultural production deforestation on land without clear property rights and investment in technology during period 2 the options are to farm on available land and deforested areas or work in the wage sector findings reveal that 1 communal land tenure ownership by the ejido did not increase deforestation 2 pricing that favors maize production which is very land intensive increased deforestation and technical assistance reduced deforestation and 3 poverty was related to higher rates of deforestation prices were the most important immediate factor in unsustainable resource use but other factors had an impact the government policy mix did not support sustainable development reduced subsidies would benefit the environment the government should provide safety nets to increase the level of rural investment and reduce poverty and should improve land productivity with technical inputs trade liberalization and elimination of subsidies should be sensitive to the poors need for real wages

the ecological footprint of poverty alleviation evidence from mexico s oportunidades program abstract we study the consequences of poverty alleviation programs for environmental degradation we exploit the community level eligibility discontinuity for a conditional cash transfer program in mexico to identify the impacts of income increases on deforestation and use the program s initial randomized rollout to explore household responses we find that additional income raises consumption of land intensive goods and increases deforestation the observed production response and deforestation increase are larger in communities with poor road infrastructure this suggests that better access to markets disperses environmental harm and that the full effects of poverty alleviation on the environment can be observed only where poor infrastructure localizes them

biodiversity poverty and development biodiversity is crucial for the production of a range of marketed and non marketed ecosystem goods and services this paper reviews the empirical evidence for the role of terrestrial biodiversity and biodiversity conservation in economic development and poverty at both the macro e g country and micro e g farm scales it first examines general relationships between biodiversity and economic development before showing how biodiversity influences ecosystem services second future scenarios and challenges for biodiversity and development are examined given projections for further changes in global population economic growth and consumption third the relationship between biodiversity protection and incomes is investigated two specific policies protected areas and bioprospecting are reviewed with respect to their impacts on the welfare of the resource dependent poor in conclusion improvements in policy design and implementation could help minimize the possibility of earth s sixth mass extinction event at least within a few generations while ensuring that the poor are not made worse off as a result of policy implementation

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

the effect of decision weights in bargaining problems abstract bargaining problems are considered where the preferences of the bargainers deviate from expected utility but can be modelled according to rank dependent utility theory under rank dependent utility both the utility function and the probability weighting function influence the risk attitude of a decision maker the same definition of risk aversion leads to two forms of risk aversion utility risk aversion and probabilistic risk aversion the main finding is that these two forms can have surprisingly opposite consequences for bargaining solutions that exhibit a weak monotonicity property in particular in a large class of bargaining problems both increased utility risk aversion and decreased probabilistic risk aversion of the opponent are advantagous for a player this is demonstrated for the kalai smorodinsky bargaining solution the nash bargaining solution does not behave regularly in this respect

does poverty constrain deforestation econometric evidence from peru this paper examines the relationship between income and land clearing for households living in tropical forest regions a simple model of the agricultural household that clears land for agriculture is developed to investigate the relationship between lagged income and cleared land holdings analysis of panel data from peru suggests that lagged income is positively correlated with clearing though at a decreasing rate and because of labor market constraints clearing is positively correlated with household labor availability this work suggests that small increases in the incomes of the poorest are unlikely to reduce deforestation in this context

risk aversion in the theory of expected utility with rank dependent probabilities expected utility with rank dependent probability theory is a model of decision making under risk where the preference relations on the set of probability distributions is represented by the mathematical expectation of a utility function with respect to a transformation of the probability distributions on the set of outcomes this paper defines based on g teaux differentiability measures of risk aversion for such preferences which characterize the relation more risk averse and applies these measures to the analysis of unconditional and conditional portfolio choice problems

precautionary saving credit constraints and irreversible investment theory and evidence from serniarid india this article investigates the extent to which poor households are discouraged from making a non divisible but profitable investment using data on irrigation wells in india we estimate the parameters of a structural model of irreversible investment results show that poor farmers fail to undertake a profitable investment that they could in principle self finance because the nondivisibility of the investment puts it out of their reach irreversibility constitutes an additional disincentive to invest simulations show that the availability of credit can dramatically increase investment in irrigation and that interest rate subsidization has little impact

does alcohol consumption reduce human capital accumulation evidence from the college alcohol study it is often conjectured that a significant cost of youthful drinking is the future labour market consequences of having accumulated a lower stock of human capital while several studies have investigated the effect of youthful drinking on the quantity of human capital stock accumulated measured by years of education completed or high school graduation this paper investigates the effect of alcohol consumption on the quality of human capital stock accumulated as measured by college students gpa using data from the harvard school of public health s college alcohol study the indirect effect of the quantity of alcohol consumed on gpa is estimated through hours spent studying as well as the direct effect results show that the net total effect of alcohol consumption on gpa is negative for the sample of college students and that the main effect is via a reduction in the hours spent studying this finding confirms that high levels of alcohol consumption have an overall negative consequence for academic achie

shadow wages and peasant family labour supply an econometric application to the peruvian sierra a striking feature of developing economies is the large proportion of the work force that is self employed lack of widespread labor market participation in the agricultural sector can pose a major obstacle to the empirical implementation of economic models of the peasant household whether because wage data are simply not available or because the assumptions required to make use of wage data stretch the bounds of credulity this paper develops a methodology for estimating a structural labor supply model for primarily self employed peasant households which holds under a general agricultural technology and set of labor market conditions the unique feature of the approach is that the opportunity cost of time or shadow wage of household workers is explicitly estimated from an agricultural production function and is subsequently used to identify a set of structural labor supply parameters recent household survey data from rural peru is employed to estimate and perform various diagnostic tests on the model the empirical findings lend support to the hypothesis that peasant households allocate their members time as if to maximize a family utility function and moreover demonstrate the tractability of the shadow wage methodology and its usefulness in estimating more elaborate time allocation models

alcoholism work and income this article reports on an empirical analysis of the relationships between alcoholism and income and working we show that the relationships between alcoholism and labor market success have important age or life cycle dimensions we present evidence that alcoholism may affect income more by restricting labor market participation than by affecting the wages of workers finally we demonstrate that the effects of alcoholism on earnings depend on the extent to which one controls for other covariates associated with alcoholism as such we suggest that there may be important indirect as well as direct effects of alcoholism on labor market success

bargaining solutions without the expected utility hypothesis abstract we first generalize the nash bargaining solution to the case where decision makers are not necessarily expected utility eu maximizers we suggest two different approaches and show that the two extensions coincide when the preferences are of the eu and the rank dependent utility rdu types the extensions differ in the case of weighted utility wu preferences we also investigate the sensitivity of the extensions to changes in the degree of risk aversion when the first extension is considered the existing results depend on the eu assumption for more general preferences the solutions depend on the concavity of the certainty utilities when the second extension is considered the well known eu results remain unchanged journal of economic literature classification numbers 022 026

parental problem drinking and adult children s labor market outcomes current estimates of the societal costs of alcoholism do not consider the impact of parental drinking on children this paper analyzes the consequences of parental problem drinking on children s labor market outcomes in adulthood using the nlsy79 i show that having a problem drinking parent is associated with longer periods out of the labor force lengthier unemployment and lower wages in particular for male respondents increased probabilities of experiencing health problems and abusing alcohol are speculative forces behind these effects while causality cannot be determined due to imprecise iv estimates the paper calls for further investigation of the intergeneration costs of problem drinking

human development and alcohol abuse in adolescence the aim of this article is to analyse the development of human capital in adolescents as represented by their state of health and educational attainment when this capital is affected by the abusive consumption of alcohol measured by grams of ethanol to that end we adopt a theoretical framework derived from the model of rational addiction the model of health demand and the model of schooling demand which is then estimated by using data drawn from the spanish national survey on drug use in the school population 1996 1998 2000 results confirm that higher alcohol consumption leads to worse health states and lower academic efficiency among adolescents which suggests the need to implement effective policies aimed at reducing alcohol abuse among this population group

risk aversion in the nash bargaining problem with risky outcomes and risky disagreement points according to this paper the analysis of the nash bargaining problem with risky outcomes must include the cases where the disagreement outcome itself is risky as well thus one generalizes the roth and rothblum results to models with risky disagreement outcome as well it turns out that their result will depend in some cases upon the degree of change in risk aversion particularly when the potential agreement has an outcome which makes player 2 worse off compared to the disagreement and if the disagreement does not dominate that outcome i e its support contains a worse outcome then when player 2 becomes sufficiently more risk averse player 1 becomes better off thus one obotains that increase in risk aversion may be disadvantageous to player 2 even if the risky disagreement is preferred to some outcome of the risky agreement

bioenergy consumption in rural china evidence from a survey in three provinces abstract biomass in the form of crop residues and firewood is a major energy source for rural households in china a survey conducted in the provinces of shanxi zhejiang and guizhou shows that 37 percent of rural households use bioenergy for heating and cooking and that bioenergy accounts for 18 percent of their total energy consumption most of the biomass used for energy is burned in traditional stoves contributing to indoor air pollution in rural homes crop residues also are commonly burned in the fields contributing to the high level of outdoor air pollution in china our econometric analysis of the key determinants of bioenergy use shows that bioenergy consumption falls modestly with income growth increased time required for biomass collection and less farmland hence open burning of some biomass is an optimal choice and is likely to become more of a problem without policy intervention these findings suggest that a more sustainable use of biomass requires policies that promote cleaner more efficient bioenergy combustion technologies and increase the economic value of biomass such that local households can benefit from biomass collection

alcohol and earnings does drinking yield a wage premium this paper examines the relationship between alcohol consumption and earnings for prime age males wage differentials for non moderate and heavy drinkers are estimated using a polychotomous choice model which accounts for the endogenous relationship be tween drinking and earnings we find that moderate alcohol consumption leads to increased earnings relative to abstention however heavy drinking leads to reduced earnings relative to moderate drinking heavy drinkers possess flatter age earnings profiles and attain lower returns for higher education than non and moderate drinkers these results are in contrast to previous research on substance abuse which finds no earnings drop off for heavy users

the role of tenure security and private time preference in neotropical deforestation a survey of 209 chimane amerindian households in 18 villages in the bolivian rain forest was done to examine the role of tenure security and private time preference on the clearance of old growth forest results of tobit regressions suggest that conflict with abutters was associated with more deforestation but the average impatience of the household heads was associated with less deforestation results suggest that governments should protect the land rights of indigenous people if they wish to enhance conservation results cast doubts on the idea that high private time preference increases the depletion of natural resources

stochastic dominance analysis without the independence axiom we characterize the consistency of a large class of nonexpected utility preferences including mean variance preferences and prospect theory preferences with stochastic orders for example stochastic dominances of different degrees our characterization rests on a novel decision theoretic result that provides a behavioral interpretation of the set of all derivatives of the functional representing the decision maker s preferences as an illustration we consider in some detail prospect theory and choice acclimating preferences two popular models of reference dependence under risk and we show the incompatibility of loss aversion with prudence this paper was accepted by james smith decision analysis

unintended impacts of public investments on private decisions the depletion of forested wetlands by affecting relative economic returns infrastructure investments can induce major changes in private land use the authors find that 30 percent of forested wetland depletion in the mississippi valley has resulted from private decisions induced by federal flood control projects despite explicit federal policy to preserve wetlands the model aggregates individual land use decisions using a parametric distribution of unobserved land quality dynamic simulations are used to quantify the impacts on wetlands of federal projects and other factors copyright 1990 by american economic association