can falling supply explain the rising return to college for younger men a cohort based analysis although the college high school wage gap for younger u s men has doubled over the past 30 years the gap for older men has remained nearly constant in the united kingdom and canada the college high school wage gap also increased for younger relative to older men using a model with imperfect substitution between similarly educated workers in different age groups we argue that these shifts reflect changes in the relative supply of highly educated workers across age groups the driving force behind these changes is the slowdown in the rate of growth of educational attainment that began with cohorts born in the early 1950s in all three countries

state lotteries and consumer behavior abstract this paper investigates two central issues regarding state lotteries first analyses of multiple sources of micro level data demonstrate that household lottery spending is financed primarily by a reduction in non gambling expenditures not by a reduction in expenditures on other forms of gambling the introduction of a state lottery is associated with an average decline of 46 per month or 2 4 percent in household non gambling expenditures low income households reduce non gambling household expenditures by 2 5 percent on average 3 1 percent when the state lottery includes instant games these households experience statistically significant declines in expenditures on food and on rent mortgage and other bills second consumer demand for lottery products responds positively to the expected value of the gamble controlling for other statistical moments and product characteristics including the nominal top prize amount this finding is consistent with informed choice among consumers of lottery products although other forms of irrational or misinformed choice cannot be ruled out

a reanalyis of marital stability in the seattle denver income maintenance experiment this paper challenges the widely cited finding of groeneveld hannan and tuma that the seattle denver income maintenance experiment provides evidence that guaranteed income plans for poor husband wife families will increase marital dissolution relative to the existing program aid to families with dependent children the reanalysis of the experimental data distinguishes between the experimental treatment in the form of the pure negative income tax and the treatment plans that involved an experimental training program all the time periods of the experiment are used with allowance for the timing of the marital dissolution in the inferences and with allowance for attrition the conclusion of this paper is that the plans specifically the negative income tax plans in the experiment had no effect on the rate of marital dissolutions among the treatment couples relative to the control couples

tricks with hicks the easi demand system we invent implicit marshallian demands which combine desirable features of hicksian and marshallian demands we propose and estimate the exact affine stone index easi implicit marshallian demand system like the almost ideal demand aid system easi budget shares are linear in parameters given real expenditures however unlike the aid easi demands can have any rank and its engel curves can have any shape over real expenditures easi error terms equal random utility parameters to account for unobserved preference heterogeneity easi demand functions can be estimated using gmm or three stage least squares and like aid an approximate easi model can be estimated by linear regression

ageing and unused capacity in europe is there an early retirement trap we address the issue of how early retirement may interact with limited use of financial markets in producing financial hardship later in life when some risks such as long term care are not insured we argue that the presence of financially attractive early retirement schemes in a world of imperfect financial and insurance markets can lead to an early retirement trap indeed europe witnesses many early retired individuals in financial distress in our analysis we use data on 10 european countries which differ in their pension and welfare systems in prevailing retirement age and in households access to financial markets we find evidence that an early retirement trap exists particularly in some southern and central european countries people who retired early in life are more likely to be in financial hardship in the long run our analysis implies that governments should stop making early retirement attractive let retirees go back to work improve access to financial markets and make sure long term care problems are adequately insured viola angelini agar brugiavini and guglielmo weber

incentive effects of the u s welfare system a review the author would like to acknowledge support for prior work on this topic from the u s department of health and human services and helpful comments from three anonymous referees rebecca blank howard chernick john fitzgerald irwin garfinkel peter gottschalk edward gramlich david greenberg judith gueron james heckman v joseph hotz robert hutchens michael keane frank levy larry mead michael murray robert plotnick anuradha rangarajan philip robins howard rolston jeffrey smith and daniel weinberg all opinions and errors are those of the author alone

first party content and coordination in two sided markets the strategic use of first party content by two sided platforms is driven by two key factors the nature of buyer and seller expectations favorable versus unfavorable and the nature of the relationship between first party content and third party content complements or substitutes platforms facing unfavorable expectations face an additional constraint their prices and first party content investment need to be such that low zero participation equilibria are eliminated this additional constraint typically leads them to invest more less in first party content relative to platforms facing favorable expectations when first and third party content are substitutes complements these results hold with both simultaneous and sequential entry of the two sides with two competing platforms incumbent facing favorable expectations and entrant facing unfavorable expectations and multi homing on one side of the market the incumbent always invests weakly more in first party content relative to the case in which it is a monopolist this paper was accepted by bruno cassiman business strategy

retirement effects on health in europe what are the health impacts of retirement as talk of raising retirement ages in pensions and social security schemes continues around the world it is important to know both the costs and benefits for the individual as well as the governments budgets in this paper we use the survey of health ageing and retirement in europe share dataset to address this question in a multi country setting we use country specific early and full retirement ages as instruments for retirement behavior these statutory retirement ages clearly induce retirement but are not related to an individual s health exploiting the discontinuities in retirement behavior across countries we find significant evidence that retirement has a health preserving effect on overall general health our estimates indicate that retirement leads to a 35 percent decrease in the probability of reporting to be in fair bad or very bad health and an almost one standard deviation improvement in the health index while the self reported health seems to be a temporary impact the health index indicates there are long lasting health differences

platform competition in two sided markets many if not most markets with network externalities are two sided to succeed platforms in industries such as software portals and media payment systems and the internet must get both sides of the market on board accordingly platforms devote much attention to their business model that is to how they court each side while making money overall this paper builds a model of platform competition with two sided markets it unveils the determinants of price allocation and end user surplus for different governance structures profit maximizing platforms and not for profit joint undertakings and compares the outcomes with those under an integrated monopolist and a ramsey planner jel l5 l82 l86 l96

quality matters the expulsion of professors and the consequences for phd student outcomes in nazi germany i investigate the effect of faculty quality on phd student outcomes to address the endogeneity of faculty quality i use exogenous variation provided by the expulsion of mathematics professors in nazi germany faculty quality is a very important determinant of short and long run phd student outcomes a one standard deviation increase in faculty quality increases the probability of publishing the dissertation in a top journal by 13 percentage points the probability of becoming a full professor by 10 percentage points the probability of having positive lifetime citations by 16 percentage points and the number of lifetime citations by 6 3

estimating the effect of income on health and mortality using lottery prizes as an exogenous source of variation in income a vast literature has established a strong positive relation between income and health status and a negative relation with mortality this paper studies the effects of income on health and mortality using only the part of income variation due to a truly exogenous factor monetary lottery prizes of individuals the findings are that higher income causally generates good health and that this effect is of a similar magnitude as when traditional estimation techniques are used a 10 percent income increase improves health by about 4 5 percent of a standard deviation

earnings functions when wages and prices vary by location economists generally assume implicitly that the return to schooling is invariant across local labor markets we demonstrate that this outcome pertains if and only if preferences are homothetic a special case that seems unlikely our theory predicts that returns to education will instead be relatively low in expensive high amenity locations our analysis of u s data provides support for this contention returns to college are especially low in such cities as san francisco and seattle our findings call into question standard empirical exercises in labor economics that treat the returns to education as a single parameter

endogenous gentrification and housing price dynamics in this paper we begin by documenting substantial variation in house price growth across neighborhoods within a city during citywide housing price booms we then present a model which links house price movements across neighborhoods within a city and the gentrification of those neighborhoods in response to a citywide housing demand shock a key ingredient in our model is a positive neighborhood externality individuals like to live next to richer neighbors this generates an equilibrium where households segregate based upon their income in response to a citywide demand shock higher income residents will choose to expand their housing by migrating into the poorer neighborhoods that directly abut the initial richer neighborhoods the in migration of the richer residents into these border neighborhoods will bid up prices in those neighborhoods causing the original poorer residents to migrate out we refer to this process as endogenous gentrification using a variety of data sets and using bartik variation across cities to identify city level housing demand shocks we find strong empirical support for the model s predictions

when it rains it pours under what circumstances does job loss lead to divorce much of the previous research that has examined the effect of job loss on the probability of divorce either rely on data from the 1970s 80s data from european countries or focus on aggregate divorce rates this study uses u s micro data from 2000 to 2012 thus including effects of the great recession to examine how displacement i e exogenous job loss affects the probability of divorce the author finds displacement significantly increases the probability of divorce but only if the husband is the spouse that is displaced and his earnings represented approximately half or less of the household s earnings prior to displacement similarly results show that the probability of divorce increases if the wife is employed and as her earnings increase while the mechanism behind these asymmetric results remains unclear these results are consistent with recent research that finds a destabilizing effect on marriages when a wife earns more than her husband

house prices and marital stability we investigate the effect of house price changes on divorce using data for 1991 2010 from the current population survey and the federal housing finance agency our findings suggest that changing house prices significantly affect the share of a cohort that is divorced and that these effects are asymmetric with respect to housing gains versus losses in addition we find differential effects for groups that are more likely to be homeowners versus renters some of this evidence is consistent with homeowners being locked into their homes and hence marriages by increased transactions costs in down markets

estimating the effect of unearned income on labor supply earnings savings and consumption evidence from a survey of lottery players this paper provides empirical evidence about the effect of unearned income on earnings consumption and savings using an original survey of people playing the lottery in massachusetts in the mid 1980 s the effects of the magnitude of lottery prizes on economic behavior are analyzed the critical assumption is that among lottery winners the magnitude of the prize is randomly assigned it is found that unearned income reduces labor earnings with a marginal propensity to consume leisure of approximately 11 percent with larger effects for individuals between 55 and 65 years old after receiving about half their prize individuals saved about 16 percent

chicken and egg competition among intermediation service providers we analyze a model of imperfect price competition between intermediation service providers we insist on features that are relevant for informational intermediation via the internet the presence of indirect network externalities the possibility of using the nonexclusive services of several intermediaries and the widespread practice of price discrimination based on users identity and on usage efficient market structures emerge in equilibrium as well as some specific form of inefficient structures intermediaries have incentives to propose non exclusive services as this moderates competition and allows them to exert market power we analyze in detail the pricing and business strategies followed by intermediation services providers copyright 2003 by the rand corporation

should the personal computer be considered a technological revolution evidence from u s metropolitan areas the introduction and diffusion of personal computers are widely viewed as a technological revolution using u s metropolitan area level panel data this paper asks whether links between pc adoption educational attainment and the return to skill conform to a model of technological revolutions in which the speed and extent of adoption are endogenous the model implies that cities will adjust differently to the arrival of a more skill intensive means of production with the returns to skill increasing most where skill is abundant and its return is low we show that the cross city data fit many of the predictions of the model during the period 1980 2000 the pc diffusion era

the effect of wealth on individual and household labor supply evidence from swedish lotteries abstract we study the effect of wealth on labor supply using the randomized assignment of monetary prizes in a large sample of swedish lottery players winning a lottery prize modestly reduces earnings with the reduction being immediate persistent and quite similar by age education and sex a calibrated dynamic model implies lifetime marginal propensities to earn out of unearned income from 0 17 at age 20 to 0 04 at age 60 and labor supply elasticities in the lower range of previously reported estimates the earnings response is stronger for winners than their spouses which is inconsistent with unitary household labor supply models jel d14 j22 j31

information management and pricing in platform markets we study platform markets in which the information about users preferences is dispersed first we show how the dispersion of information introduces idiosyncratic uncertainty about participation decisions and how the latter shapes the elasticity of the demands and the equilibrium prices we then study the effects on profits consumer surplus and welfare of platform design blogs forums conferences advertising campaigns post launch disclosures and other information management policies affecting the agents ability to predict participation decisions on the other side of the market

match quality new information and marital dissolution this article investigates the role of surprises in marital dissolution surprises consists of changes in the predicted earning capacity of either spouse data from the national longitudinal study of the high school class of 1972 is used we find that an unexpected increase in the husband s earning capacity reduces the divorce hazard while an unexpected increase in the wife s earning capacity raises the divorce hazard couples sort into marriage according to characteristics that are likely to enhance the stability of the marriage the divorce hazard is initially increasing with the duration of marriage and the presence of children and high levels of property stabilizes the marriage

multidimensional platform design successful platforms attract not just many users but also those of the right kind the right kind of user is one who can either be directly monetized or who differentially attracts other valuable users bonacich centrality on the network of user sorting with direct value of monetization captures this feedback loop and thus characterizes the value of user characteristics we use this value to determine optimal steady state platform design and reliable means for platforms to reach such a steady state we apply these results respectively to explain the dynamic growth strategy of social networks and urban development policies of cities

tipping and the dynamics of segregation schelling dynamic models of segregation journal of mathematical sociology 1 1971 143 186 showed that extreme segregation can arise from social interactions in white preferences once the minority share in a neighborhood exceeds a tipping point all the whites leave we use regression discontinuity methods and census tract data from 1970 through 2000 to test for discontinuities in the dynamics of neighborhood racial composition we find strong evidence that white population flows exhibit tipping like behavior in most cities with a distribution of tipping points ranging from 5 to 20 minority share tipping is prevalent both in the suburbs and near existing minority enclaves in contrast to white population flows there is little evidence of nonlinearities in rents or housing prices around the tipping point tipping points are higher in cities where whites have more tolerant racial attitudes

tarnishing the golden and empire states land use restrictions and the u s economic slowdown abstract this paper studies the impact of state level land use restrictions on u s economic activity focusing on how these restrictions have depressed macroeconomic activity since 2000 we use a variety of state level data sources together with a general equilibrium spatial model of the united states to systematically construct a panel dataset of state level land use restrictions between 1950 and 2014 we show that these restrictions have generally tightened over time particularly in california and new york we use the model to analyze how these restrictions affect economic activity and the allocation of workers and capital across states counterfactual experiments show that deregulating existing urban land from 2014 regulation levels back to 1980 levels would have increased us gdp and productivity roughly to their current trend levels california new york and the mid atlantic region expand the most in these counterfactuals drawing population out of the south and the rustbelt general equilibrium effects particularly the reallocation of capital across states account for much of these gains

lucky in life unlucky in love the effect of random income shocks on marriage and divorce abstract economists have long been interested in the extent to which economic resources affect decisions to marry and divorce however this issue has been difficult to address empirically due to a lack of exogenous income shocks we overcome this problem by exploiting the randomness of the florida lottery and comparing recipients of large prizes to those of small prizes results indicate that while positive income shocks of 25 000 to 50 000 do not cause statistically significant or economically meaningful changes in divorce rates single women are less likely to marry as a result of the additional income

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

power couples changes in the locational choice of the college educated 1940 1990 college educated couples are increasingly located in large metropolitan areas these areas were home to 32 percent of all college educated couples in 1940 39 percent in 1970 and 50 percent in 1990 we investigate whether this trend can be explained by increasing urbanization of the college educated or the growth of dual career households and the resulting severity of the colocation problem we argue that the latter explanation is the primary one smaller cities may therefore experience reduced inflows of human capital relative to the past and thus become poorer

why do most italian youths live with their parents intergenerational transfers and household structure more than 80 of italian men aged 18 30 live with their parents we argue that one contributing factor to this remarkably high rate of cohabitation is parents tastes for co residence in order to investigate the role of parental preferences we estimate the effect of exogenous changes in parental income on rates of cohabitation in italy using shiw micro data from 1989 to 2000 the key econometric issue is the potential endogeneity of parental income in order to identify a source of exogenous variation in parental income we use changes in fathers retirement age induced by the 1992 reform of the italian social security system as an instrumental variable for parental income by raising retirement age this reform forced some fathers to remain in the labour market longer than they would have otherwise therefore raising their disposable income we use a two sample instrumental variable tsiv strategy our tsiv estimates indicate that a rise in parents income significantly raises the children s propensity to live at home a 10 increase in annual parental income results in approximately a 10 rise in the proportion of boys living with their parents although we cannot definitely rule out alternative interpretations these results are consistent with our hypothesis that cohabitation is a normal good for italian parents

amenities and regional differences in returns to worker characteristics average wages in regions in the united states vary considerably in trying to explain these differences in the average wage across regions a number of studies have found that differences in the returns to characteristics of workers such as years of schooling are as important as differences in the skill composition of the labor force 4 6 10 141 these differences in returns are generally interpreted as reflecting regional differences in demand for worker characteristics coupled with barriers to factor mobility this interpretation is based on the argument that the presence of at least one perfectly mobile factor with perfect information will cause spatial convergence in characteristic prices as that particular factor exploits any spatial price differential 4 p 2161 this paper suggests an alternative to this demand based explanation for regional differences in the structure of wages one based on regional differences in the supply of worker characteristics this explanation does not rely on impediments to the movement of workers or firms and is consistent with an equilibrium view of wages in which regional wage differentials are viewed as compensation for local amenities the theoretical model presented in the following section assumes capital and labor are perfectly mobile with perfect information implying that in equilibrium the utility of workers with similar characteristics is the same in all locations this convergence of utility however does not necessarily imply convergence of characteristic prices equilibrium differences in the returns to a specific worker characteristic can exist if worker characteristics affect an individual s valuation of an area s amenities relative to the individual s demand for land

the retirement consumption puzzle evidence from a regression discontinuity approach in this paper we investigate the size of the consumption drop at retirement in italy we use micro data on food and total non durable household spending covering the period 1993 2004 and evaluate the change in consumption that accompanies retirement by exploiting the exogenous variability in pension eligibility to correct for the endogenous nature of the retirement decision we take a regression discontinuity design approach and make the identifying assumption that consumption would be the same around the threshold for pension eligibility if individuals would not retire we check in our data that a non negligible fraction of individuals retire as soon as they become eligible and estimate at 9 8 the part of the non durable consumption drop that is associated with retirement induced by eligibility we show that such fall is not driven by liquidity problems for the less well off in the population and can be accounted for by drops in goods that are work related expenses or leisure substitutes however we also show that retirement induces a significant drop in the number of grown children living with their parents and this can account for most of the retirement consumption drop

ageing cognitive abilities and retirement we investigate the relationship between ageing cognitive abilities and retirement using the survey on health ageing and retirement in europe share a household panel that offers the possibility of comparing several european countries using nationally representative samples of the population aged 50 the human capital framework suggests that retirement may cause an increase in cognitive decline since after retirement individuals lose the market incentive to invest in cognitive repair activities our empirical results based on an instrumental variable strategy to deal with the potential endogeneity of retirement confirm this key prediction they also indicate that education plays a fundamental role in explaining heterogeneity in the level of cognitive abilities

is there a daily discount rate evidence from the food stamp nutrition cycle abstract quasi hyperbolic discounting predicts impatience over short run tradeoffs i present a direct non laboratory test of this implication using data on the nutritional intake of food stamp recipients caloric intake declines by 10 to 15 percent over the food stamp month implying a significant preference for immediate consumption these findings constitute a rejection of the permanent income hypothesis and are extremely difficult to reconcile with exponential discounting the data support an explanation based on time preference and reject several alternative explanations including highly elastic intertemporal substitution i explore implications for the optimal timing of transfer payments under alternative assumptions about preferences

wealth health and child development evidence from administrative data on swedish lottery players we use administrative data on swedish lottery players to estimate the causal impact of substantial wealth shocks on players own health and their children s health and developmental outcomes our estimation sample is large virtually free of attrition and allows us to control for the factors conditional on which the prizes were randomly assigned in adults we find no evidence that wealth impacts mortality or health care utilization with the possible exception of a small reduction in the consumption of mental health drugs our estimates allow us to rule out effects on 10 year mortality one sixth as large as the crosssectional wealth mortality gradient in our intergenerational analyses we find that wealth increases children s health care utilization in the years following the lottery and may also reduce obesity risk the effects on most other child outcomes including drug consumption scholastic performance and skills can usually be bounded to a tight interval around zero overall our findings suggest that in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets causal effects of wealth are not a major source of the wealth mortality gradients nor of the observed relationships between child developmental outcomes and household income jel codes i10 i14 j24

distance to retirement and older workers employment the case for delaying the retirement age this paper presents empirical evidence and a theoretical foundation in favor of the view that the retirement age decision affects older workers employment prior to retirement to the extent that there are search frictions on the labor market the return on jobs is determined by their expected duration the time to retirement is then key to understanding older workers employment countries with a retirement age of 60 are indeed characterized by lower employment rates for workers aged 55 59 based on the french labor force survey we show that the likelihood of employment is significantly affected by the distance to retirement in addition to age and other relevant variables we then extend mccall s job search model by explicitly integrating life cycle features with the retirement decision using simulations we show that the distance effect in interaction with the generosity of unemployment benefits and the depressed demand for older workers explains the low rate of employment just before the eligibility age for the social security pension finally we show that implementing actuarially fair schemes not only extends the retirement age but also encourages a more intensive job search by older unemployed workers jel j22 j26 h55

product design in selection markets insurers choose plan characteristics to sort for profitable consumers in a model with multidimensional types this sorting incentive is proportional to the covariance among marginal consumers between marginal willingness to pay and cost to the insurer standard forms of cost sharing successfully repel costly consumers but reducing plan comprehensiveness instead alienates the risk averse in a perfectly competitive equilibrium the sorting incentive must vanish market power increases insurance quality and welfare nonetheless a competitive equilibrium with positive insurance is possible when insurance value is suciently negatively correlated with cost however in a calibration to handel hendel and whinston 2013 s data equilibrium still fails to exist

the effect of pension reform on pension benefit expectations and savings decisions in japan using the japanese study of aging and retirement jstar which is a new japanese panel survey of people aged 50 and over we find that more japanese in their early 50s expect their level of public pension benefits to decline compared with those in their late 50s and early 60s we also find that recent pension reforms that raised the pensionable age affected the japanese population by increasing the age at which they expect to claim their benefits by almost the exact same amount as the increase in the pensionable age the reforms have also decreased the population s expectations about receiving public pension benefits although this effect is not necessarily significant we also find evidence that anxiety about the public pension programme s future increases private savings

the determinants and welfare implications of us workers diverging location choices by skill 1980 2000 abstract from 1980 to 2000 the rise in the us college high school graduate wage gap coincided with increased geographic sorting as college graduates concentrated in high wage high rent cities this paper estimates a structural spatial equilibrium model to determine causes and welfare consequences of this increased skill sorting while local labor demand changes fundamentally caused the increased skill sorting it was further fueled by endogenous increases in amenities within higher skill cities changes in cities wages rents and endogenous amenities increased inequality between high school and college graduates by more than suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone jel d31 i26 j24 j31 j61 r23

wages rents and amenities differences among workers and regions what explains persistent regional earnings differences this paper argues that regional differences in amenities can account for the wage differences in contrast cost of living variations do not account for wage differences but actually exacerbate them this conclusion results from a model in which variations in rents and wages are equalizing differences for amenity differences empirical results are consistent with the model

does postponing minimum retirement age improve healthy behaviors before retirement evidence from middle aged italian workers abstract by increasing the residual working horizon of employed individuals pension reforms that rise minimum retirement age can affect individual investment in health promoting behaviors before retirement using the expected increase in minimum retirement age induced by a 2004 italian pension reform and a difference in differences research design we show that middle aged italian males affected by the reform reacted to the longer working horizon by increasing regular exercise with positive consequences for obesity and self reported satisfaction with health

marriage and economic incentives evidence from a welfare experiment can economic incentives be used to affect marriage behavior and slow the growth of single parent families this paper provides new evidence on the effects of welfare benefit levels on the marital decisions of poor women exogenous variation in welfare benefit incentives arises from a randomized experiment carried out in california that allows me to measure responses beyond simple year to year changes in benefit levels i find that a regime of lower benefits and stronger work incentives encourages married aid recipients to stay married but has little effect on the probability that single parent aid recipients marry the effects on married recipients become larger over time suggesting that long run effects may exist

identifying human capital externalities theory with applications the identification of aggregate human capital externalities is still not fully understood the existing mincerian approach confounds positive externalities with wage changes due to a downward sloping demand curve for human capital as a result the mincerian approach yields positive externalities even when wages equal marginal social products we propose an approach that identifies human capital externalities whether or not aggregate demand for human capital slopes downward another advantage of our approach is that it does not require estimates of the individual return to human capital applications to u s cities and states between 1970 and 1990 yield no evidence of significant average schooling externalities copyright 2006 wiley blackwell

politicians luck of the draw evidence from the spanish christmas lottery incumbent politicians tend to receive more votes when economic conditions are good in this paper we explore the source of this correlation exploiting the exceptional evidence provided by the spanish christmas lottery because winning tickets are typically sold by one lottery outlet winners tend to be geographically clustered this allows us to study the impact of exogenous good economic conditions on voting behavior we find that incumbents receive significantly more votes in winning provinces the evidence is consistent with a temporary increase in happiness making voters more lenient toward the incumbent or with a stronger preference for the status quo

the effect of incomes wages and afdc benefits on marital disruption this paper uses a choice based model to estimate the effects of a broad set of economic factors including afdc benefit levels husband s earnings and a woman s wage rate on the probability of marital dissolution we find that the probability of divorce is lower for marriages in which the husband s labor income is higher we also find that while afdc income has a substantial effect on welfare receipt by a divorced woman it has a relatively small effect on the probability that a married woman will become divorced finally we find no support for the hypothesis that rising wages for women have increased marital instability

job displacement disability and divorce earnings shocks should affect divorce probability by changing a couple s expected gains from marriage we find that the divorce hazard rises after a spouse s job displacement but does not change after a spousal disability this difference casts doubt on a purely pecuniary motivation for divorce following earnings shocks since both types of shocks exhibit similar long run economic consequences furthermore the increase in divorce is found only for layoffs and not for plant closings suggesting that information conveyed about a partner s noneconomic suitability as a mate due to a job loss may be more important than financial losses in precipitating divorce

retirement expectations pension reforms and their impact on private wealth accumulation abstract we estimate the effect of pension reforms on households expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth accumulation decisions exploiting a decade of intense italian pension reforms as a source of exogenous variation in expected pension wealth the survey of household income and wealth a large random sample of the italian population elicits expectations of the age at which workers expect to retire and of the ratio of pension benefits to pre retirement income between 1989 and 2002 we find that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is substantial offset between private wealth and perceived pension wealth particularly by workers that are better informed about their pension wealth

labor supply and marital separation panel data are used to estimate the effect of marital separation on labor supply female labor supply increases substantially and male labor supply declines marginally lending support to the theory of specialization within the household the most interesting finding is that women began to increase their labor supply well before the actualsplit occurs suggesting either that shocks to labor supply change divorce probabilities or that women with a higher likelihood of divorcework more this argument is pursued by constructing and estimating a simultaneous model of labor supply and divorce risk copyright 1986 by american economic association

time to burn calories the impact of retirement on physical activity among mature americans abstract physical activity is crucial for maintaining and improving health especially at advanced ages while retirement increases the amount of time available for physical activity there is only limited evidence regarding the causal effect of retirement on recommended levels of physical activity addressing this gap in the literature we use data from the u s health and retirement study to estimate the causal impact of retirement on meeting the federal government s 2008 physical activity guidelines for americans using official early and normal retirement ages as instruments for retirement our causal iv analyses suggest significant positive effects of retirement on meeting the guidelines these effects are robust with regard to the treatment of unobserved individual specific heterogeneity the measurement of guideline compliance the definition of retirement and respondents health insurance status we also show that the effects of retirement on physical activity are larger for persons with higher levels of education and wealth

adoption externalities as public goods abstract a public good problem arises naturally in situations characterized by positive externalities or negative externalities for positive externalities agents furnish a public good by taking an action similarly for negative externalities agents furnish a public good by not taking an action we examine these externalities in a binary choice problem i e adoption externalities in each case there is a potential role for government intervention even when equilibrium transfers are not allowed since one equilibrium pareto dominates all others we analyze the positive and normative features of equilibria in these models and we explore the possibility of useful government intervention

the personal discount rate evidence from military downsizing programs the military drawdown program of the early 1990s provides an opportunity to obtain estimates of personal discount rates based on large numbers of people making real choices involving large sums the program offered over 65 000 separatees the choice between an annuity and a lump sum payment despite break even discount rates exceeding 17 percent most of the separatees selected the lump sum saving taxpayers 1 7 billion in separation costs estimates of discount rates range from 0 to over 30 percent and vary with education age race sex number of dependents ability test score and the size of payment

immigration and inequality immigration is often viewed as a proximate cause of the rising wage gap between highand low skilled workers nevertheless there is controversy over the appropriate theoretical and empirical framework for measuring the presumed effect and over the precise magnitudes involved this paper offers an overview and synthesis of existing knowledge on the relationship between immigration and inequality focusing on evidence from cross city comparisons in the u s while some researchers have claimed that a cross city research design is inherently flawed i argue that the evidence from cross city comparisons is remarkably consistent with recent findings based on aggregate time series data in particular cross city and aggregate time series comparisons provide support for three key conclusions 1 workers with below high school education are perfect substitutes for those with a high school education 2 high school equivalent and college equivalent workers are imperfect substitutes with an elasticity of substitution on the order of 2 3 within education groups immigrants and natives are imperfect substitutes together these results imply that the average impacts of recent immigrant inflows on the relative wages of u s natives are small the effects on overall wage inequality including natives and immigrants are larger reflecting the concentration of immigrants in the tails of the skill distribution and higher residual inequality among immigrants than natives even so immigration accounts for a small share 5 of the increase in u s wage inequality between 1980 and 2000

3rd of tha month do social security recipients smooth consumption between checks this paper examines the response of consumption expenditures to the monthly receipt of social security checks since the amount and arrival date of these checks are known to the recipients the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis lcpih predicts that consumption should not respond to the receipt of these checks using daily diary data from the consumer expenditure survey this paper finds evidence that both the dollar amount and probability of expenditures increase immediately following the receipt of this check most relevant to testing the lcpih categories of instantaneous consumption expenditure such as food away from home increase on the check arrival date the response is found primarily amongst households for whom social security is the primary source of income however the magnitude of the estimated responses are relatively small and do not suggest that the utility losses are large from this non smoothing behavior this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item