the long term effect of renewable electricity on employment in the united kingdom abstract assessment of the employment impact of renewable electricity technologies is generally implemented through either complex and data intensive methods such as computable general equilibrium models or simplistic approaches normally focused on specific energy generation technologies such as employment factors in contrast this article proposes a transparent and easily reproducible econometric methodology based on the vector error correction model that uses aggregated and widely available data the model is applied to the power generation sector in the united kingdom using annual data from 1990 onwards and provides evidence that the long term employment impact of renewable technologies is much higher than the impact arising from deploying nuclear or natural gas technologies the impulse response function analysis indicates that a permanent 1 gigawatt hours increase in annual electricity supply generated by renewable technologies creates 3 5 jobs in the long term period finally this study derives the implications of the findings in the context of decarbonisation scenarios for the power sector in the united kingdom and assesses the extent to which decarbonisation pathways based on renewable electricity contribute to stimulating employment in the generation sector

regional electricity generation and employment in uk regions abstractregional electricity generation and employment in uk regions regional studies a number of electricity generation technologies reduce carbon emissions but with different economic and employment effects partly consequent on how far generation capacity supports regional supply chains in devolved regions these issues are important because of the role given to renewable electricity generation in economic development strategies this paper analyses the regional employment supported by different electricity generation technologies illustrating trade offs between generation scale and employment intensity and shows that the regional employment supported under all pathways is modest compared with the regional economic scale the policy implications are investigated

employment factors for wind and solar energy technologies a literature review abstract in this paper we present an up to date literature review on employment opportunities associated with the deployment of renewable energy technology we identified approximately 70 studies and data sources published over the past decade that report analysed or observed employment impacts of renewable energy growth these publications cover many different countries and several technology options and present widely varying results derived from distinct methodological approaches our first overall conclusion is that there is clear lack of authenticity of findings in this literature since recursive referencing abounds and relatively few studies yield truly original research when we omit non authentic analyses as well as those that aggregate results in a way that does not allow us to calculate employment factors defined as the number of jobs or amount of work generated per unit of electricity production capacity the total list of references is brought to 31 independent items of these only 14 references provide separate estimates of the employment factors for the stages of manufacturing and installation respectively as opposed to employment factors for these two activities combined a total of 23 items provide values for operation and maintenance o m employment factors we observe significant uncertainties in quoted figures for job creation both across and within publications

energy investment economic growth and carbon emissions in china empirical analysis based on spatial durbin model abstract the international community has reached a consensus on preventing the global climate from deterioration by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere energy industry is a key field for greenhouse gas emission and investment in the energy industry plays a crucial part in promoting the low carbon development of china s energy industry energy investment can effectively break the high carbon lock in effect of energy industry and achieve the low carbon development of energy industry by guiding regulating and gathering social funds into the field of cleaner production and the field of low carbon technology based on the unified framework of energy economy and environment this article takes 30 provinces in china as the research object and constructs a spatial econometric model to investigate the impact of energy investment and economic growth on carbon emission reduction the results indicate that both energy investment and economic growth are responsible for the increase of china s provincial co2 emissions but their driving mechanisms are significantly different furthermore the increase of carbon emissions in adjacent provinces will bring about the increase of local carbon emissions through spatial spillover effects based on these findings the corresponding countermeasures and policy suggestions are put forward

quantifying the impacts of energy price reform on living expenses in saudi arabia abstract as part of vision 2030 saudi arabia has initiated a broad based energy reform programme aimed at gradually reducing its dependence on oil this paper assesses the impacts of energy price reforms on living expenses of various household groups in saudi arabia for this purpose the input output table combined with household expenditure data are used to model the impacts results show that the distributional impacts of energy price reforms are regressive with low income households experiencing a higher increase in living expenses compared to high income households the impacts are primarily instigated by rising prices of energy intensive products after decomposing the impacts into direct and indirect effects it was found that indirect effect is not only responsible for a considerable rise in household expenditure on energy intensive products but it is also distributionally regressive it is therefore vital for policymakers to review and fine tune the social protection system to protect poor households against reforms

the exchange rate and fiscal consolidation episodes in emerging market economies abstract an analysis of fiscal consolidations in emerging market economies during 1970 2004 suggests that exchange rate depreciation raises the probability of a fiscal consolidation being successful including when controlling for debt growth the composition of the consolidation and degree of democracy

effects of fiscal contractions the importance of preceding exchange rate movements we examine the importance of exchange rate and money supply movements for the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal contractions and find i contractions associated with a favorable macroeconomic outcome have been preceded by significantly higher real depreciations as compared to contractions associated with a less favorable macroeconomic outcome and ii contractions preceded by real depreciations improve expectations about future income and generate higher private consumption growth we discuss policy implications for countries both outside and inside the emu

fiscal policy and financial market movements abstract this paper estimates fiscal policy reaction function in order to investigate the links between financial market movements and fiscal policy outcomes an increase in asset prices affects in a positive and significant manner primary balances with the response reflecting both an increase in government revenues and a fall in government spending the most important impact on fiscal balances is due to changes in residential property prices changes in equity and commercial property prices are also important determinants of fiscal balances our findings suggest that the steepening of the slope of the yield curve contributes to expenditure based fiscal discipline

fiscal adjustments and their effects during the transition to the emu the transition phase to emu hasbeen accompanied by considerable monetaryand fiscal consolidation efforts in the eu this paper analyses this consolidationprocess and its effects on economicactivity in the eu it is tested to what extent fiscal retrenchment efforts havedepressed or stimulated private spending inthe case of the latter non keynesian effectsdominate the traditional keynesianexpenditure effects of government spending taxation and transfer payments

the impact of clean energy investments on the greek economy an input output analysis 2010 2020 the aim of this paper is twofold first to calculate the green energy investments by industrial sector that greece would need in order to satisfy a number of energy and environmental targets adopted in the context of the european commission s energy and climate change package and second to calculate the macro economic impacts of these green investments on production and employment in the greek economy to this end the input output analysis has been exploited for estimating the direct indirect and induced macroeconomic effects associated with the implementation of selected energy conservation measures the promotion of renewable energy technologies etc our findings show that the required investments would reach the amount of 47 9 billion over the period 2010 2020 these investments will result in an average annual increase of the national product by 9 4 billion creating simultaneously 108 000 full time equivalent jobs for the entire period under consideration the employment generated per 1 million investment is relatively higher in energy saving projects in buildings and transport in comparison with the development of res in power generation sector

employment creation potential of renewable power generation technologies a life cycle approach abstract the present study analyses the employment characteristics of nine different renewable power generation technologies two types of solar photovoltaic wind small scale hydro geothermal wood biomass and three types of biogas the analysis uses a renewable energy focused input output model that the authors developed to analyse life cycle environmental and socio economic impacts of renewable power generation technologies and policies the analysis reveals that there are distinctive differences among the nine technologies impacts on employment the total employment creation potential over the life cycle is estimated to be in the range of 1 04 5 04 person years per gwh furthermore the nine technologies have unique features regarding how many and what kinds of jobs are created across the whole life cycle the introduction of these technologies into an economy directly and indirectly induces jobs in different industrial sectors reflecting their technological characteristics on the other hand the nine different technologies have a common employment effect in that they create relatively high employment opportunities in the service sectors such as wholesale trade non life insurance and judicial financial and accounting services the present study reveals quantitative employment characteristics of the different types of renewable power generation technology to provide valuable information for renewable energy policy making

output effects of government purchases the theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases under plausible conditions the temporary case involves an output response that is positive less than one to one with the change in government purchases and larger than that generated by an equal sized but permanent shift in purchase the equilibrium real rate of return rise in the temporary case but changes little in the permanent one defense purchases are divided empirically into permanent and temporary components by considering the role of temporary wars no temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases the results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally supportive of the theory

fiscal stimulus in times of high debt reconsidering multipliers and twin deficits we investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt to gdp ratio for a sample of 17 european countries from 1970 to 2010 this is implemented in an interacted panel var framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt to gdp ratio we find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior while the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real gdp is positive and significant at moderate debt to gdp ratios this effect turns negative as the ratio increases the total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of gdp is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt consequently depending on the degree of public indebtedness our results accommodate long run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period from a policy perspective these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed

the economic impact of energy saving retrofits of residential and public buildings in croatia abstract the purpose of this paper is to estimunate the impact of energy saving investment in residential and public buildings in croatia for the period 2015 2020 the aim is to assess the overall socio economic impact of energy saving renovation measures defined in croatian strategic documents in terms of the direct indirect and induced growth of gross value added employment and government revenues an estimate of the avoided costs of air pollution is also included the overall economic impact assessment is based on an input output methodology from the point of view of individual investors the benefits in terms of reduced future expenses related to energy products are usually below energy efficient renovation investment costs making an investment financially viable only if government support is provided if the benefits for society as a whole are included energy efficient renovation could be assessed as viable even in the short run energy saving retrofits of residential and public buildings positively contribute to economic growth employment and protection of the environment because of economic growth the tax revenues induced by these investments could compensate for government expenditures and the overall impact on the public deficit is expected to be neutral even in the short run

on measuring the effects of fiscal policy in recessions we do not have a good measure of the effects of fiscal policy in a recession because the methods that we use to estimate the effects of fiscal policy both those using the observed outcomes following different policies in aggregate data and those studying counterfactuals in fitted model economies almost entirely ignore the state of the economy and estimate the government multiplier which is presumably a weighted average of the one we care about the multiplier in a recession and one we care less about the multiplier in an expansion notable exceptions to this general claim sug gest this difference is potentially large our lack of knowledge stems significantly from the focus on linear dynamics vector autoregressions and linearized or close to linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models our lack of knowledge also reflects a lack of data deep recessions are few and nonlinearities hard to measure the lack of statistical power in the estimation of nonlinear models using aggregate data can be addressed by exploiting estimates of partial equilibrium responses in disaggregated data microeconomic estimates of the partial equilibrium causal effects of a policy can discipline the causal channels inherent in any dsge model of the general equilibrium effects of policy microeconomic studies can also provide measures of the dependence of the effects of a policy on the states of different agents which is a key component of the dependence of the general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy on the state of the

private debt overhang and the government spending multiplier evidence for the united states using state dependent local projections and historical us data we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang in particular while multipliers are below or close to one in low private debt states we find significant crowding in of private spending in periods of debt overhang resulting in multipliers that are much larger than one in high private debt episodes more government purchases even reduce the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product these results are robust for the type of shocks and when we control for the business cycle financial crises deleveraging episodes government debt overhang and the zero lower bound

energy based economic development abstract the fields of economic development and energy policy and planning have converged in recent years to form an emerging discipline which we term energy based economic development ebed despite the significant amount of stimulus funds as well as state and local funding that are being allocated to ebed initiatives in the united states the emerging discipline has received scant attention in the energy policy and development literature the link between energy and economic development in the literature is still theoretical mostly focused on the need for and the potential benefits of ebed and rarely applied furthermore funding for ebed has outpaced understanding of the discipline development of rigorous technical approaches and meaningful ways to measure impact such information would not only help practitioners and policymakers more thoroughly understand the confines of the discipline and shape goals and approaches accordingly but also help researchers identify track and evaluate a variety of activities in the field with national and international attention focused on the convergence of these fields researchers and practitioners have a rare opportunity to develop and implement the tools necessary to evaluate and communicate the potentially broader impacts that ebed may hold for society if ways to leverage and sustain the injection of funds in this discipline are not identified the opportunity may end before we can achieve either energy policy or economic development goals in an attempt to respond to this need this analysis explores the connection between energy and economic development beginning with a review of the trends in each field and the goals that each seeks to achieve on the basis of this information we define the discipline of ebed review the existing literature on it and offer insights and perspectives on its emergence

the permanent income hypothesis estimation and testing by instrumental variables the permanent income hypothesis with rational expectation is restated estimated and tested by an instrumental variables technique on the postwar u s aggregate time series data the hypothesis is accepted on a consumption series which includes service flows from consumer durables if the consumption series is the one in the national income and product accounts the hypothesis is decisively rejected an explanation is suggested to reconcile the conflicting test results

productivity shocks budget deficits and the current account abstract productivity shocks and budget deficits are considered to be two key determinants of the current account in order to assess formally the role of both factors in driving current account movements the present paper extends the standard intertemporal model of the current account to allow for non ricardian household behavior testable cross equation restrictions for the current account and investment are derived by drawing on the distinction between country specific and global innovations to productivity as well as to the government budget we test the restrictions of the model against time series data for 21 oecd countries and find evidence in support of the model

economic and environmental effects of a co2 tax in latin american countries abstract the environmental extension from the leontief pricing model is used to simulate the economic and environmental effects of setting different co2 tax rates in three latin american countries brazil mexico and chile it considers a regulatory scenario in which the tax is applied only to emissions from the electricity sector and another scenario in which tax is applied to emissions from all economic sectors the results show that the effects of a co2 tax on sectoral prices and emissions in each country are very different for the same tax rate but these effects are similar in each country when comparing both regulatory scenarios this is explained by the composition carbonization of the electric generation and energy matrix of each of the countries which significantly affects the effectiveness of co2 taxes to reduce emissions in addition the economic sectors most affected by the different regulatory scenarios are similar in all countries

is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization evidence from the consumer expenditure survey in this paper we show that some of the predictions of models of consumer intertemporal optimization are in line with the patterns of nondurable expenditure observed in u s household level data we propose a flexible specification of preferences that allows multiple commodities and yields empirically tractable equations we estimate preference parameters using the only u s micro data set with complete consumption information we show that previous rejections can be explained by the simplifying assumptions made in previous studies we also show that results obtained using good consumption or aggregate data can be misleading

the financial cycle and macroeconomics what have we learnt abstract it is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics in the environment that has prevailed for at least three decades now it is not possible to understand business fluctuations and the corresponding analytical and policy challenges without understanding the financial cycle this calls for a rethink of modelling strategies and for significant adjustments to macroeconomic policies this essay highlights the stylised empirical features of the financial cycle conjectures as to what it may take to model it satisfactorily and considers its policy implications in the discussion of policy the essay pays special attention to the bust phase which is less well explored and raises much more controversial issues

the impact of doe building technology energy efficiency programs on u s employment income and investment abstract the u s department of energy s office of energy efficiency and renewable energy eere analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of its programs that are designed to increase the energy efficiency of the u s residential and commercial building stock the analysis is conducted using the impact of sector energy technologies imset model a special purpose 188 sector input output model of the u s economy designed specifically to evaluate the impacts of energy efficiency investments and saving for the analysis described in the paper imset was amended to provide estimates of sector by sector capital requirements and investment in the scenario of the fiscal year fy 2005 building technologies bt program the technologies and building practices being developed and promoted by the bt program have the potential to save about 2 9 10 15 btu in buildings by the year 2030 about 27 of the expected growth in building energy consumption by the year 2030 the analysis reported in the paper finds that by the year 2030 these savings have the potential to increase employment by up to 446 000 jobs increase wage income by 7 8 billion reduce needs for capital stock in the energy sector and closely related supporting industries by about 207 billion and the corresponding annual level of investment by 13 billion and create net capital savings that are available to grow the nation s future economy

the carbon footprint of greek households 1995 2012 abstract the goal of this paper is twofold i to investigate the carbon footprint of greek households throughout the period 1995 2012 in order to identify the main socio economic factors that affect ghg emissions and ii to evaluate the effectiveness of the implemented policies to tackle climate change in this a consumption based emissions inventory approach is applied the analysis is based on an environmentally extended input output model including direct co2 emissions from households indirect co2 emissions from electricity consumption and indirect co2 emissions from energy used in the production of goods and services purchased by households domestic or imported statistical analysis and appropriate regression models were developed in order to identify the main factors influencing the carbon footprint of greek households the results indicate that the observed trends during the period 1995 2008 can be attributed to the effect of high economic growth this trend is partially counterbalanced by favorable weather conditions and the implementation of greenhouse mitigation policies and measures mainly in the supply side since 2008 the shrinking household income is the dominant driver in addition the effectiveness of energy conservation policies and measures in place is rather low while the effect of imports is limited

future fiscal and budgetary shocks abstract we study the effects of future tax and budgetary shocks in a non monetary and possibly non ricardian economy an unanticipated temporary labor tax cut to be effective on a given future date a delayed debt bomb causes at once a drop in the unit value placed on the firms business asset the customer with the result that share prices the hourly wage and employment drop in tandem this paradox of reduced activity through announcement of future stimulus does not hinge on an upward jump of long interest rates a future tax rate cut lacking a sunset provision has the same negative effects

the role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth the case of turkey 1963 1999 this study investigates the empirical relationship s between macroeconomic instability public and private capital accumulation and growth in turkey over the period 1963 1999 time series econometric techniques such as cointegration and impulse response analysis are used the results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing macroeconomic instability of the turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and growth furthermore the turkish experience indicates that chronic macroeconomic instability seems to be a serious impediment to public investment especially to its infrastructural component and shatters or even reverses the complementarity between public and private investment in the long run

the size of banking crises in credible fixed exchange rate regimes abstract since monetary policy is constrained in fixed exchange rate regimes we should observe fewer banking crises due to moral hazard in countries with credible currency pegs however three countries with seemingly credible pegs in the nineteen eighties and nineties namely china hong kong and argentina still suffered crises in their domestic banking sectors the present note illustrates that bank incentives to take on excess risk still exist in countries with currency peg credibility and that the size of that risk exposure and thus the potential for crisis may be positively related to the level of central bank foreign exchange reserves

government spending and private consumption some international evidence this paper investigates the relationship between private consumption and publicly provided goods and services for a number of countries the empirical results show that in the aggregate private and government consumption are best described as complementary in the sense that an increase in one raises the marginal utility of the other the strength of this relationship is shown to be negatively affected by the government size these findings are robust across all specifications tried copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

fiscal stabilizations when do they work and why abstract this paper studies the determinants and channels through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the debt to gdp ratio and gdp growth using data from a panel of oecd countries the paper shows that the success of fiscal adjustments in decreasing the debt to gdp ratio depends on the size of the fiscal contraction and less on its composition the rate of growth of output matters too but higher gdp growth does not drive the success of a fiscal stabilization in contrast whether a fiscal adjustment is expansionary depends largely on the composition of the fiscal maneuvre in particular stabilizations implemented by cutting public spending lead to higher gdp growth rates the effects of the composition on growth work mostly through the labor market rather than through agents expectations of future fiscal policy finally the evidence suggests that successful and expansionary fiscal contractions are not the result of accompanying expansionary monetary policy or exchange rate devaluations

fiscal policy profits and investment this paper evaluates the effects of fiscal policy on investment using a panel of oecd countries we find a sizeable negative effect of public spending and in particular of its wage component on profits and on business investment this result is consistent with different theoretical models in which government employment creates wage pressure for the private sector various types of taxes also have negative effects on profits but interestingly the effects of government spending on investment are larger than those of taxes our results can explain the so called non keynesian i e expansionary effects of fiscal adjustments jel e22 e62

green jobs economic impacts of renewable energy in germany abstract the labor market implications of large investment into renewable energy re are analyzed in this text although a growing re industry can be observed in germany the overall effect of large increases of re based electricity and heat generating technologies on the german economy require a careful model based analysis the applied model panta rhei has been used among others to evaluate the german energy concept in 2010 it takes positive and negative impacts of re into account the paper shows the overall effects under different assumptions for fossil fuel prices domestic installations and international trade the results are sensitive to assumptions on the development of re world markets and german exports to these markets almost all of these scenarios exhibit positive net employment effects under medium assumptions net employment of re expansion will reach around 150 thousand in 2030 only with assumptions for german re exports below today s level net impacts are slightly negative gross employment will increase from 340 thousand in 2009 to between 500 and 600 thousand in 2030

how shifting investment towards low carbon sectors impacts employment three determinants under scrutiny abstract the threat of climate change requires redirecting investment towards low carbon sectors and this shift generates heated debates about its impact on employment many studies exist most of which use cge or input output io models however the economic mechanisms at play remain unclear this paper disentangles the channels of job creation and studies to what extent the results of simpler io models diverge from cge results using stylized models we show that a shift in investment creates jobs in io if it promotes sectors with a higher share of labour in value added lower wages or a lower import rate in cge the first two channels also yield job creation but there is no positive impact of targeting low imports sectors unless these do not export then we undertake a numerical analysis of two policies the installation of solar panels and weatherization in france both policies have a positive effect on employment in both models due to the high share of labour and low wages in these sectors io results provide a good approximation of cge results for solar 14 to 34 and are slightly higher for weatherization 22 to 87 our findings challenge the idea that renewables boost employment by reducing imports but they also suggest that a double dividend can be achieved by encouraging low carbon labour intensive sectors

fiscal crises and aggregate demand can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy abstract this paper shows how the power of fiscal policy to affect consumption can vary depending on the level of public debt at moderate levels of debt fiscal policy has the traditional keynesian effects current generations of consumers discount future taxes because they may not be alive when taxes are raised or there will be a larger population available to pay the taxes but when debt reaches extreme values current generations of consumers know there is a high probability that they will have to pay extra taxes a fiscal deficit can have a contractionary effect in these situations

multiplicative structural decomposition analysis of aggregate embodied energy and emission intensities abstract aggregate intensity indicators such as the ratio of a country s energy and emissions to its gdp are often used by researchers and policymakers to study energy and environmental performance this paper analyzes the relationship between energy or emissions and value added or gdp from a different viewpoint namely from the demand rather than the production perspective using the input output i o framework the aggregate embodied intensity aei defined as the ratio of embodied energy or emissions to embodied value added can be defined at the aggregate final demand category and sectoral levels the total aggregate intensity can be presented as a weighted sum of the aeis at the final demand category or sectoral level changes of the aei at different levels can be decomposed to identify the driving forces using multiplicative sda a study using the latest 2007 and 2012 datasets of china indicates that a its aggregate intensity of co 2 emissions was mainly determined by the aei in investment and b the emission intensity effect generally contributed the most to the aei ratio changes at different levels the proposed framework can be applied to other aggregate intensity indicators and extended to multi country region analysis

renewable energy and employment in germany abstract the positive impacts of an increasing share of renewable energy on the mitigation of climate change as well as on the decrease of the dependency of energy imports are indisputable however one persistent problem for the german economy has been its high level of unemployment in the recent past therefore any policy strategy will be measured also by its net impact on the labor market the paper describes the results of a study that models this impact and is novel within three respects firstly an input output vector for the renewable energy sector was developed based on the results of more than 1000 interviews with an extensive questionnaire secondly gross and net effect of two different policy scenarios for germany until 2030 were calculated and thirdly the approach varies from earlier studies by its explicit modeling of export and foreign trade effects

an in depth economic restructuring framework by using particle swarm optimization abstract the aim of this paper is the development of an integrated framework based on environmental input output analysis for optimizing the economic structure of an economy the restructuring process is approached as a constraint optimization problem where the optimized variables are the elements of the matrix of domestic technical coefficients a method for determining the optimal level of the productive linkages of an economy in order to maximize its output with the minimal greenhouse gas emissions the possible is suggested the proposed methodology is able to join both environmental and economic policy targets in the form of predefined constraints the objective function which is going to be minimized expresses the greenhouse gas emissions ghg intensity or ghg emissions per unit of output a particle swarm algorithm is employed for the solution of the optimization problem an illustrative application to the greek economy was carried out the experimental results revealed that if the greek economy will apply policies for boosting the sectors of high and medium high r d intensity then the greenhouse gas emission per unit of gross domestic product of greece would be reduced furthermore the promotion of high and medium high r d intensity sectors is connected with an important improvement of the production linkages to a wide range of sectors highlighting the important spillover effect of the suggested restructuring process

effects of austerity expenditure and tax based approaches we review the debate surrounding the macroeconomic effects of deficit reduction policies austerity the discussion about austerity in general has distracted commentators and policymakers from a very important result namely the enormous difference on average between expenditure and tax based austerity plans spending based austerity plans are remarkably less costly than tax based plans the former have on average a close to zero effect on output and lead to a reduction of the debt gdp ratio tax based plans have the opposite effect and cause large and long lasting recessions these results also apply to the recent episodes of european austerity which in this respect were not especially different from previous cases

austerity and private debt this study provides empirical evidence that the costs of austerity crucially depend on the level of private indebtedness in particular fiscal consolidations lead to severe contractions when implemented in high private debt states contrary fiscal consolidations have no significant effect on economic activity when private debt is low these results are robust to alternative definitions of private debt overhang the composition of fiscal consolidations and controlling for the state of the business cycle and government debt overhang i show that deterioration in household balance sheets is important to understand private debt dependent effects of austerity

heat or power how to increase the use of energy wood at the lowest cost abstract we compute the optimal subsidy level for fuelwood consumption that makes it possible to achieve the french biomass energy consumption target for this purpose we model the competition and trade offs between the consumption of fuelwood for heat fw h and the consumption of fuelwood for electricity fw e to do so we couple a forest sector model with an electricity simulation model and we test different scenarios combining fw h and fw e that account for contrasting potential increases in the carbon price and the potential reduction in the number of nuclear plants we assess the implications of these scenarios on 1 the budgetary costs for the government 2 industrial wood producers profits 3 cost savings in the power sector for the different scenarios tested and 4 the carbon balance we show that the scenario with the highest carbon price and the lowest number of nuclear plants is the least expensive from a budgetary perspective indeed when associated with a high carbon price co firing may increase fw e demand with a lower subsidy level which makes it possible to reduce the cost of reaching the target however in this case fw e crowds out part of fw h which may cause political and economic issues from a carbon balance perspective an fw h only scenario performs better than any other scenario that combines fw h and fw e due to the relatively low emissions factors of alternative technologies for electricity generation and in particular nuclear energy

habit formation adjustment costs and international transmission of fiscal policy abstract the paper studies the effects of fiscal policy in an integrated world economy the setup is one with habit forming endogenous rates of time preference and adjustment costs in investment most of the predictions of the model are in line with the recent empirical literature on fiscal policy for instance in response to a balanced fiscal expansion we obtain positive long run output multipliers long run increases in employment short and medium run increases in wages and decreases in investment our results suggest that short run government spending multipliers are smaller than tax multipliers most importantly we show that the model can generate positive short and medium run consumption responses to a positive fiscal shock this is relevant as negative consumption responses are considered to be one of the main challenges facing neo classical models of fiscal policy

fiscal policy in good times and bad in the 1980s several countries with large government debt or deficit implemented substantial and in some cases drastic deficit cuts contrary to widespread expectations in many cases private consumption boomed rather than contracted this paper shows that in times of fiscal stress shocks to government revenues and especially expenditure have very different effects on private consumption than in normal times

government size and unemployment evidence from industrial countries using data from 19 industrial countries for the period 1985 to 2002 this paper analyzes how the size of the government sector affects unemployment controlling for the impact of the business cycle as well as for the impact of all major labor market institutions and unobserved country effects we find that a large government sector is likely to increase unemployment it appears to have a particularly detrimental effect on women and the low skilled and to substantially increase long term unemployment it seems that dominant stateowned enterprises a large share of public investment in total investment as well as high top marginal income tax rates and low income threshold levels at which they apply are particularly detrimental

debt dependent effects of fiscal expansions abstract economists often postulate that fiscal expansions are less stimulative when government debt is high than when it is low empirical evidence however is ambiguous using a nonlinear neoclassical growth model we show that the difference in government spending effects between high and low debt environments depends on the wealth effect on labor supply and on whether the government uses taxes or spending to retire debt because of interrelated state variables structural var estimations conditioning on debt alone can fail to isolate debt dependent effects also uncertainty on when the government will conduct fiscal consolidations generates wide confidence bands for spending multipliers further complicating efforts to estimate debt dependent government spending effects

fiscal adjustments and economic performing a comparative study the empirical relationship among fiscal contractions permanent improvement in public finances and short run economic performance is examined using a sample of 14 european countries over the last three decades the actual experience of policy making has taught that only the adjustments that relied heavily on primary expenditure cuts and were implemented over a relatively long time span were able to achieve a long lasting reduction of public liabilities indeed during these consolidations tax increase amounted to a small fraction of the total adjustment furthermore though they unfolded over a longer period with respect to the unsuccessful ones the overall budget cut was not larger as regards the macroeconomic impact successful episodes tended to be associated with improved economic performance during the adjustment period and in the following two years the economies experienced strong consumption and investment growth reduced unemployment better international competitiveness and falling interest

nominal interest rates consumption booms and lack of credibility a quantitative examination abstract exchange rate based stabilization programs in chronic inflation countries have often been accompanied by an initial expansion of private consumption followed by a contraction this consumption cycle has been attributed to lack of credibility in the sense that the public views the reduction in the devaluation rate as temporary this paper assesses the quantitative relevance of the temporariness hypothesis by comparing the predictions of a simple model to the actual figures for seven major programs the paper concludes that nominal interest rates must fall substantially for the temporariness hypothesis to account for an important fraction of the observed consumption booms

voting on the budget deficit this paper analyzes a model in which a group of rational individuals votes over the composition and time profile of public spending all voters agree that a balanced budget is ex ante optimal however if there is disagreement between current and future majorities a balanced budget is not a political equilibrium under majority rule under certain conditions a majority of the voters favors a budget deficit and the equilibrium deficit is larger the greater is the polarization among voters copyright 1990 by american economic association

fiscal multipliers in recessions standard business cycle models have difficulties generating large state dependent fiscal multipliers employing a model of costly financial intermediation based on curdia woodford we show that fiscal multipliers can be strongly state dependent fiscal expansions during recessions may lead to multiplier values exceeding two while similar expansions during economic booms would produce values falling short of unity this pattern obtains if the spread the financial friction is more sensitive to fiscal policy during recessions than during expansions a feature that is present in the data our results are consistent with recent empirical work documenting the state contingency of multipliers

public debt and growth heterogeneity and non linearity we study the long run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries our analysis builds on theoretical arguments and data considerations in modelling the debt growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries we investigate the debt growth nexus adopting linear and non linear specifications employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time series literature adapted for use in the panel we find some support for a negative relationship between public debt and long run growth across countries but no evidence for a similar let alone common debt threshold within countries

credit constraints cyclical fiscal policy and industry growth this paper evaluates whether the cyclical pattern of fiscal policy can affect growth we first build a simple endogenous growth model where entrepreneurs can invest either in short run projects or in long term growth enhancing projects long term projects involve a liquidity risk which credit constrained firms try to overcome by borrowing on the basis of their short run profits by increasing firms market size in recessions a countercyclical fiscal policy will boost investment in productivity enhancing long term projects and the more so in sectors that rely more on external financing or which display lower asset tangibility second the paper tests this prediction using rajan and zingales 1998 s diff and diff methodology on a panel data sample of manufacturing industries across 17 oecd countries over the period 1980 2005 the evidence confirms that the positive effects of a more countercyclical fiscal policy on value added growth productivity growth and r d expenditure are indeed larger in industries with heavier reliance on external finance or lower asset tangibility

an approach of measuring environmental protection in chinese industries a study using input output model analysis abstract with a green economy making significant developments at a global scale the environmental protection industry has become an increasingly important part of china s national economy china s environmental protection industry is a strategic emerging industry and is expected to become a future pillar of the economy to promote the environmental protection industry in china and to guide environmental protection activities in various sectors the input output method was used to develop china s first environmental protection industry specifically using an externalized input output model various coefficients were measured and analyzed from the perspective of the industry chain the results reveal that the development of environmental protection activities and related environmental investment should give priority to sectors with a current shortage of environmental protection industry input concentrating on these industries will provide relatively higher benefits these industries include primary manufacturing industries the wholesale and retail marketing industries the financial industry and some sectors in second industries in addition the results of a demand and supply model reflect the fact that the environmental protection industry in china should actively promote the environmental finance and fund environmentally friendly products finally the model provides a useful tool that will allow government agencies to develop scientifically sound polices to simulate the economy and provide positive effects on investments

estimating fiscal multipliers news from a non linear world we estimate non linear vars to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the us we deal with the issue of non fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures this measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information about future dynamics of public spending results based on generalised impulse responses suggest that fiscal spending multipliers in recessions are greater than one but not statistically larger than those in expansions however non linearities arise when focusing on extreme events that is deep recessions versus strong expansionary periods

the evolution of green jobs in scotland a hybrid approach in support of its ambitious target to reduce co2 emissions the scottish government is aiming to have the equivalent of 100 of scottish electricity consumption generated from renewable sources by 2020 this is at least in part motivated by an expectation of subsequent employment growth in low carbon and renewable energy technologies however there is no official data source to track employment in these areas this has led to a variety of definitions methodologies and alternative estimates being produced building on a recent study bishop and brand 2013 we develop a hybrid approach which combines the detail of bottom up surveys with top down trend data to produce estimates on employment in low carbon environmental goods and services lcegs we demonstrate this methodology to produce estimates for such employment in scotland between 2004 and 2012 our approach shows how survey and official sources can combine to produce a more timely measure of employment in lcegs activities assisting policymakers in tracking consistently developments applying our approach we find that over this period employment in lcegs in scotland grew but that this was more volatile than aggregate employment and in particular that employment in this sector was particularly badly hit during the great recession

quantification and monetization of employment benefits associated with renewable energy technologies in greece abstract this paper formulates and implements an integrated approach for estimating the employment benefits associated with the exploitation of renewable energy sources res in the power sector it builds up on well known techniques and makes all the necessary modifications in order to take into account the specific conditions of the res market more specific the proposed approach exploits the input output methodology for estimating the direct indirect and induced employment effects associated with the energy technologies in question and the opportunity cost of labour approach for expressing these effects in monetary terms this framework has been implemented to estimate the employment benefits resulting from the development of different res technologies in greece taking into account both the construction and operation phases of the relative projects the results of the analysis clearly show that the exploitation of res in the greek power sector presents significant employment benefits which are at the same order of magnitude or in several cases even higher compared to the corresponding benefits attributed to the operation of fossil fueled power plants e g lignite and natural gas therefore the fulfillment of the national target for increasing the penetration of res into the greek power sector from approximately 12 today to 40 in 2020 will contribute apart from the significant environmental improvements to the overall economic development and the increase of the employment

fiscal policy and occupational employment dynamics we document substantial heterogeneity in occupational employment dynamics in response to government spending shocks in the united states employment rises most strongly in service sales and office pink collar occupations by contrast employment in blue collar occupations is hardly affected by fiscal policy we provide evidence that occupation specific changes in labor demand are key for understanding these findings we develop a business cycle model that explains the heterogeneous occupational employment dynamics as a consequence of composition effects due to heterogeneous employment changes across industries and occupation specific within industry employment shifts due to differences in the short run substitutability between labor and capital services across occupations

the social return on investment in the energy efficiency of buildings in germany the german government has developed a variety of policy instruments intended to reduce national co2 emissions these instruments include a programme administered by kfw bank which aims at improving the energy efficiency of buildings it provides attractive credit conditions or subsidies to finance refurbishment measures which improve the energy efficiency of buildings significantly the refurbishment programme leads to a reduction in energy use which benefits private investors by reducing their energy bills in order to estimate whether the programme benefits society as a whole additional effects must be taken into account such as the amount of employment generated and the impact on the public budget the aim of this paper is to evaluate the social benefits of the german co2 refurbishment programme for the years 2005 2007 an extended input output model is used to estimate the effect of the refurbishment works on public revenue via taxes and social security contributions the value of avoided co2 emissions is approximated using a range of marginal damage estimates from the literature from these social benefits the programme cost is deducted the net social benefit thus computed turns out to be positive this finding suggests that the refurbishment programme is a reasonable investment of public funds