on china s domestic capital mobility and the role of the government empirical evidence over 1970 2006 this article investigates capital mobility across 29 provinces in china for the period of 1970 2006 using the feldstein horioka fh approach and campbell and mankiw s consumption smoothing cs framework it also examines the role of the governments in driving provincial capital mobility if the provincial government investment is not properly separated out from the private investment the fh framework applied to the overall saving and investment private plus public is found to underestimate the private saving investment correlation and hence overstates the degree of private capital mobility compared with the cs framework that focuses on the private consumption and output both frameworks indicate strong correlation between private saving investment and private consumption output implying strong barriers in the provincial private capital flows however there is ample evidence that capital mobility has been rising over time particularly after the mid 1990s it also appears that the government facilitates capital flows through inter governmental transfers during the sample period the extent of provincial capital mobility sheds light on the ability of different provinces in diversifying idiosyncratic provincial risks the earlier findings are robust to alternative measurements of variables and model specifications

regional capital mobility in china 1978 2006 we examine cross region capital mobility in china and track how the degree of mobility has changed over time the effects of fiscal and redistributive activities of different levels of government in china on private capital mobility are taken into account our results indicate that there was a significant improvement in capital mobility over time in china particularly for private capital in the more developed regions the central and provincial governments via their taxation spending and transfers loosen the relationship between private saving and investment and appear to promote capital mobility particularly for less developed regions there are considerable differences between more and less developed regions in terms of the degree of capital market integration and the improvement in capital mobility over time the results have important policy implications on global re balancing as well as regional development gap and risk sharing within china

recovering probability distributions from option prices this article derives underlying asset risk neutral probability distributions of european options on the s p 500 index nonparametric methods are used to choose probabilities that minimize an objective function subject to requiring that the probabilities are consistent with observed option and underlying asset prices alternative optimization specifications produce approximately the same implied distributions a new and fast optimization technique for estimating probability distributions based on maximizing the smoothness of the resulting distribution is proposed since the crash the risk neutral probability of a three four standard deviation decline in the index about 36 percent 46 percent over a year is about 10 100 times more likely than under the assumption of lognormality recently the increasing popularity of derivatives and some highly publicized failures to control risk have led to increased efforts to find reasonable methods to measure the sensitivity of large institutional derivatives portfolios to extreme events merely because such events are rare is not sufficient to ignore them since on the few occasions when they do occur significant amounts of money can change hands potentially wiping out profits accumulated over long prior periods a key assumption behind methods of estimation is the joint probability distribution of constituent underlying asset returns this has long been a concern of financial economists since probability assumptions are critical to much of their research during the last quarter century heretofore probability distributions of stock market returns have typically been estimated from historical time series unfortunately common hypotheses may not capture the probability of extreme events and the events of interest are rare or may not be present in the historical record even though they are clearly possible

no arbitrage taylor rules with switching regimes we study the time varying nature of u s monetary policies summarized by the taylor rule based on a continuous time regime switching term structure model in this model the spot rate follows the taylor rule and government bonds at different maturities are priced by no arbitrage we allow the coefficients of the taylor rule and the dynamics of inflation and output gap to be regime dependent and estimate the model using government bond yields we find that the fed is proactive in controlling inflation in one regime and accommodative for growth in another moreover proactive monetary policies are associated with more stable inflation and output gap and therefore could have contributed to the great moderation our analysis also highlights the importance of switching regimes for term structure modeling without the regimes inflation and output can explain less than 50 of the variations of bond yields with the regimes the two variables can explain more than 80 of the variations of bond yields

out of sample density forecasts with affine jump diffusion models abstract we conduct out of sample density forecast evaluations of the affine jump diffusion models for the s p 500 stock index and its options contracts we also examine the time series consistency between the model implied spot volatilities using options returns and only returns in particular we focus on the role of the time varying jump risk premia particle filters are used to estimate the model implied spot volatilities we also propose the beta transformation approach for recursive parameter updating our empirical analysis shows that the inconsistencies between options returns and only returns are resolved by the introduction of the time varying jump risk premia for density forecasts the time varying jump risk premia models dominate the other models in terms of likelihood criteria we also find that for medium term horizons the beta transformation can weaken the systematic effect of misspecified ajd models using options returns

calibration of option based probability assessments in agricultural commodity markets a method for evaluating the reliability of option based price probability assessments is developed based on the calibration concept empirical tests using goodness of fit criteria are applied to four agricultural commodities results suggest that assessments in the corn and live cattle markets are reliable but such assessments overstate the volatility of soybean prices and understate the location of hog prices

out of sample performance of discrete time spot interest rate models we provide a comprehensive analysis of the out of sample performance of a wide variety of spot rate models in forecasting the probability density of future interest rates although the most parsimonious models perform best in forecasting the conditional mean of many financial time series we find that the spot rate models that incorporate conditional heteroscedasticity and excess kurtosis or heavy tails have better density forecasts generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity significantly improves the modeling of the conditional variance and kurtosis whereas regime switching and jumps improve the modeling of the marginal density of interest rates our analysis shows that the sophisticated spot rate models in the existing literature are important for applications involving density forecasts of interest rates

short term interest rates as subordinated diffusions in this article we cbaracterize and estimate the process for short term interest rates using federal funds interest rate data we presume that we are observing a discrete time sample of a stationary scalar diffusion we concentrate on a class of models in whicb the local volatility elasticity is constant and the drift has aflexible specufication to accommodate missing observations and to break the link between economic time and calendar time we model the sampling scheme as an increasing process that is not directly observed we propose and implement two new methods for estimation we find evidence for a volatility elasticity between one and onehalf and two when interest rates are high local mean reversion is smaul and the mechanism for inducing stationarity is the increased volatility of the diffusion process

multivariate density forecast evaluation and calibration in financial risk management high frequency returns on foreign exchange we provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts among other things the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross variable interactions such as time varying conditional correlations we also provide conditions under which a technique of density forecast calibration can be used to improve deficient density forecasts and we show how the calibration method can be used to generate good density forecasts from econometric models even when the conditional density is unknown finally motivated by recent advances in financial risk management we provide a detailed application to multivariate high frequency exchange rate density forecasts

testing expected utility maximization under price and quantity risk with a heterogeneous panel refutable implications based on the curvature properties of the indirect utility function for the competitive firm operating under uncertainty are extended to the case of both price and quantity uncertainty using unit roots and cointegration tests for heterogeneous panels a model of us agricultural production is developed based on the time series properties of a panel of state level data most refutable hypotheses under output price and output quantity risk are not rejected but symmetry conditions implied by a twice continuously differentiable indirect utility function are rejected the same test conclusions are obtained from a traditional model that presumes stationarity in all variables

evaluating density forecasts with applications to financial risk management density forecasting is increasingly more important and commonplace for example in financial risk management yet little attention has been given to the evaluation of density forecasts the authors develop a simple and operational framework for density forecast evaluation they illustrate the framework with a detailed application to density forecasting of asset returns in environments with time varying volatility finally the authors discuss several extensions copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

international evidence on how income inequality and credit market imperfections affect private saving rates abstract this paper empirically examines the hypothesis that income distribution exerts an independent effect on private saving rates across countries and tests particular channels for income inequality to affect private saving rates cross sectional and panel regression results show that inequality has a robust positive effect on private saving rates that depends on financial market development and credit available to the private sector the paper thus identifies credit market imperfections as the likely reason for the inequality private saving link the data provide no evidence supporting a subsistence channel for inequality to affect private saving as suggested by nonhomothetic utility functions

likelihood based specification analysis of continuous time models of the short term interest rate an extensive collection of continuous time models of the short term interest rate is evaluated over data sets that have appeared previously in the literature the analysis which uses the simulated maximum likelihood procedure proposed by durham and gallant 2002 provides new insights regarding several previously unresolved questions for single factor models i find that the volatility not the drift is the critical component in model specification allowing for additional flexibility beyond a constant term in the drift provides negligible benefit while constant drift would appear to imply that the short rate is nonstationary in fact stationarity is volatility induced the simple constant elasticity of volatility model fits weekly observations of the three month treasury bill rate remarkably well but is easily rejected when compared with more flexible volatility specifications over daily data the methodology of durham and gallant can also be used to estimate stochastic volatility models while adding the latent volatility component provides a large improvement in the likelihood for the physical process it does little to improve bond pricing performance

modeling the dynamics of chinese spot interest rates using the daily data of chinese 7 day repo rates from january 1 1997 to december 31 2008 this paper tests a variety of popular spot rate models including single factor diffusion garch markov regime switching and jump diffusion models we document that chinese spot rates are subject to both market forces and administrative forces garch regime switching and jump diffusion models capture some important features of the dynamics of chinese spot rates but all models under study are overwhelmingly rejected we further explore possible sources of model misspecification using diagnostic tests

recent advances in estimating term structure models in the past 10 years increasingly sophisticated statistical techniques have been applied to the estimation of increasingly complex models of the term structure of interest rates in reviewing this literature we highlight the facts that have been established and the key unresolved issues the data indicate that within a wide range of interest rates mean reversion in rates is at best weak whether mean reversion is stronger for very high or very low levels of rates is an unresolved issue the absolute volatility of rates increases as the level of rates increases but the strength of this effect and the role and nature of either stochastic volatility or regime switching components in rates are still unclear unfortunately these unresolved issues have important implications for fixed income option pricing and risk measurement including value at risk calculations

financial crisis and global imbalances its labour market origins and the aftermath the objective of this paper is to articulate how the 2007 09 economic crisis is rooted in the uneven income distribution and inequality caused by the current finance led model of growth the process of financialisation that took place in the 1980s in the usa and then in the european union was coupled with labour flexibility wage moderation and soaring profits the flexibility agenda of the labour market and the end of wage increases along with the contraction of indirect wages i e public social expenditure diminished workers purchasing power this was partly compensated with increased borrowing opportunities and the boom of credit consumption all of which helped workers to maintain unstable consumption capacity however in the long term unstable consumption patterns derived from precarious job creation job instability and poor wages have weakened aggregate demand hence labour market issues such as flexibility uneven income distribution poor wages and the financial crisis are two sides of the same coin both have a direct impact on the economic crisis and the current global imbalances copyright the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

gavel to gavel congressional television coverage as political advertising the impact of c span on legislative sessions kamal p upadhyaya this article examines the effect of television on the length of legislative sessions at the federal level in the united states data from the u s congress during the period 1972 96 are employed during part of which time each house of congress received significant television coverage by c span and c span2 evidence from a parks regression suggests that the presence of c span has increased house sessions by 88 250 hours and the presence of c span2 has increased senate sessions by a striking 252 431 hours other things constant additional estimates suggest that house sessions are about two minutes longer per bill introduced under the eye of c span and senate sessions are about four minutes longer per bill introduced in the presence of c span2 longer sessions which represent low cost forms of advertising for incumbents are not without costs to taxpayers we estimate that these costs lie somewhere between 16 million and 392 million in real terms per session of congress jel d72 h11 i introduction as grain and goff 1988 point out the number of political watchers c span junkies seems to be on the rise from a 1986 estimate of 40 million since 1986 the grain and goff 1988 study has been the only significant empirical study of the impact of television on representative democracy despite the potential availability of relevant data and statistical techniques the purpose of the present article is to partially fill the void concerning the impact of television on the democratic process by concentrating on the effect of television on the length of legislative sessions in the u s congress this study makes use of a voter shopping construct that analyzes political services as search experience goods and employs data from the u s house of representatives and the u s senate during the period 1972 96 during some of which time each branch of congress received significant television coverage by c span or c span2 ii product classifications and the provision of political services as grain and goff 1988 point out the theory of product advertising parallels the theory of information as in stigler 1961 and nelson 1970 1974 these articles define search goods as goods for which consumer judgments about quality or performance can be made prior to purchase and experience goods as those for which consumer judgments about product quality performance can be made only after purchase nelson points out that information regarding experience good search good quality can be obtained by consumers at high cost low cost for experience goods ads contain cues indirect on the reputation of the seller which is verifiable at low cost and from which the buyer can make inferences regarding product quality 1 crain and goff 1988 point out that one point of view in the literature holds that political services are like search goods because candidates records are available to voters for verification and evaluation at low cost on the other hand it might be costly for voters to gather information on candidates prior to an election and or difficult for voters to draw inferences about the future behavior of politicians which suggests that political services are experience goods crain and goff 1988 11 in this regard any technological advancement that changes the costs of information gathering by voters will alter the nature of political services as in crain and goff 1988 19 because televising legislative proceedings lowers the cost of evaluating a politician s advertised qualities against his or her actual qualities political services would be more like search goods it is within this framework that we analyze the impact of television on the length of legislative sessions however we argue that there are differences in this regard with state level legislatures which were analyzed by crain and goff 1988 and the u

inequality saving and global imbalances a new theory with evidence from oecd and asian countries global imbalances are attributable to savings deficiency in some economies and savings glut in others the recent global crisis has triggered widespread social conflict over income inequality the inequality saving link has again become a pressing issue needing serious attention we present a new theory to explain why the link between inequality and saving is negative in oecd countries but positive in emerging asia we also offer an econometric analysis of differences in inequality saving links between those economies we find that aggressive financial services lead to a negative link by creating income illusion for overconsumption but imperfect financial markets contribute to a positive link by interacting with industrial policies as part of growth strategies while ignoring liquidity constraints on consumption

another look at models of the short term interest rate the short term rate of interest is fundamental to much of theoretical and empirical finance yet no consensus has emerged on the dynamics of its volatility we show that models which parameterize volatility only as a function of interest rate levels tend to over emphasize the sensitivity of volatility to levels and fail to model adequately the serial correlation in condi tional variances on the other hand serial correlation based models like garch models fail to capture adequately the relationship between interest rate levels and volatility we introduce and test a new class of models for the dynamics of short term interest rate volatility which allows volatility to depend on both interest rate levels and information shocks two important conclusions emerge first the sensitivity of interest rate volatility to interest rate levels has been overstated in the literature while this relationship is important adequately modeling volatility as a function of unexpected information shocks is also important sec ond we conclude that the volatility processes in many existing theoretical models of interest rates are misspecified and suggest new paths toward improving the theory

the statistical and economic role of jumps in continuous time interest rate models this paper analyzes the role of jumps in continuous time short rate models i first develop a test to detect jump induced misspecification and using treasury bill rates find evidence for the presence of jumps second i specify and estimate a nonparametric jump diffusion model results indicate that jumps play an important statistical role estimates of jump times and sizes indicate that unexpected news about the macroeconomy generates the jumps finally i investigate the pricing implications of jumps jumps generally have a minor impact on yields but they are important for pricing interest rate options