new venture survival ignorance external shocks and risk reduction strategies abstract although scholars have long recognized the increased mortality risk that new ventures face in terms of a liability of newness most of the discussion around this risk has been in terms of the contextual constraints that new ventures face and the difficulties that managers have in overcoming them this emphasis is in part a reflection of the perils of newness but also stems from the retrospective and aggregate perspective taken by researchers although the macro level perspective of new venture mortality has made a significant contribution to our knowledge of mortality risk patterns there has been little interest in identifying how venture managers can address the risks that all new organizations face we argue that in order to make progress in explaining new venture survival a theoretical model is required that uses a more micro level perspective to explain new venture failure and the flip side new venture survival in this paper we develop such a model we establish a definition of mortality risk and argue that the liability of newness is largely dependent on the degree of novelty ignorance associated with a new venture novelty is viewed in three different dimensions viz to the market to the technology of production and to management novelty to the market concerns the degree to which the customers are uncertain about the new venture novelty in production concerns the extent to which the production technology used by the new venture is similar to the technologies in which the production team has experience and knowledge novelty to management concerns the entrepreneurial team s lack of business skills industry specific information and start up experience we argue that mortality risk increases with the degree of novelty in each dimension and with the number of dimensions in which the new venture is novel we propose that the decline in mortality risk occurs as the venture s novelty in each of the three dimensions is eroded by information search and dissemination processes this allows the new firm to become an established business and explains what we term the evolutionary path of mortality novelty and risk decline monotonically after a period of adolescence as ignorance decays over time due to passive learning we also propose that there is a strategic mortality risk path that reflects the impact of positive and negative shocks shocks are exogenous events that alter the overall degree of novelty at a point in time positive shocks decrease overall novelty while negative shocks increase overall novelty and reversals endogenous actions that increase the overall novelty of the new venture at a point in time on the mortality risk of a new venture if the incidence and effects of these disruptions can be managed then venture managers may be able to mitigate the mortality risk for their venture we argue that risk reduction strategies can be employed most of which impact on one or more of the dimensions of mortality risk in order to increase the firm s chances of survival a series of risk reduction strategies are proposed and their impact on the determinants of mortality risk is considered

kinship in the shadow of the corporation the interbuilder network in clyde river shipbuilding 1711 1990 the authors identify a system of intercompetitor affiliation that helped clyde river shipbuilding companies to thrive but was ultimately undermined by the rise of corporate capitalism they find that connections between companies through their leaders family ties or friendships were common and beneficial as every such tie maintained by a company reduced its annual risk of failure by 10 percent this average effect however masks an important contingency the direct benefits of interbuilder ties accrued only to family firms which enjoyed a reduced risk of failure of 34 percent with each tie and not at all to corporations the authors maintain that the shift to the corporate form inhibited the operation of the interbuilder network by reducing the autonomy of leaders to work through personal relations with their competitors the results encourage heightened attention both to the idea that horizontal ties within an industry may be a key determinant of organizational success and to the idea that some m

the effect of crises on firm exit and the moderating effect of firm size abstract the liability of smallness assumption suggests that smaller firms face higher exit risks however does it apply during crises we show that during downturns size reduces firms exit risk by less the hazard rate increases more rapidly in size

relative deprivation and internal migration in the united states a comparison of black and white men while the link between geographic and social mobility has long been a cornerstone of sociological approaches to migration recent research has cast doubt on the economic returns to internal u s migration moreover important racial disparities in migration patterns remain poorly understood drawing on data from the 2000 census the author reappraises the link between migration and social mobility by taking relative deprivation into consideration she examines the association between migration disaggregated by region of origin and destination and absolute and relative earnings and occupational prestige separately by race findings lend new insight into the theoretical and stratification implications of growing racial disparities in migration patterns while both blacks and whites who move north south generally average lower absolute incomes than their stationary northern peers they enjoy significantly higher relative social positions moreover the relative gains to migration are substantially large

rival unionism and membership growth in the united states 1900 to 2005 a special case of inter organizational competition this article uses time series data from 1900 to 2005 to explore the effects of rivalry between labor unions as a special case of inter organizational competition holding constant economic and political factors that typically account for changes in union density we investigate how competition from rival labor federations and from independent unions affect both union density and a measure for the density of the dominant federation afl afl cio adjusted for membership changes from mergers and splits we measure competition by the number of unions and the size of rivals while much existing literature measures state regulation with categorical coding for specific periods we measure the effect of state enforcement directly with counts of pro labor and pro management unfair labor practice cases adjudicated by the national labor relations board we assess the effect of left wing political culture using the popular vote for socialist and communist candidates in presidential elections both the number of memb

on the economic architecture of the workplace repercussions of social comparisons among heterogeneous workers we analyze the impact on a firm s profits and optimal wage rates and on the distribution of workers earnings when workers compare their earnings with those of coworkers we consider a low productivity worker who receives lower wage earnings than a high productivity worker when the low productivity worker derives dis utility not only from his own effort but also from comparing his earnings with those of the high productivity worker his response to the sensing of relative deprivation is to increase the optimal level of effort consequently the firm s profits are higher its wage rates remain unchanged and the distribution of earnings is compressed

back to basics the comanor wilson mes index revisited the present article attempts to investigate the validity of the comanor wilson minimum efficient size mes measure the basic assumption is that firms that have exhausted scale economies are in non increasing returns to scale the same firms are also assumed to have a size greater than mes estimated on sales total turnover employment or fixed assets data envelopment analysis dea is used on a sample of firms in three greek manufacturing industries to classify firms in operation according to increasing or non increasing returns to scale on the basis of the results of the dea input oriented model the mes measure correctly predicts over 85 of the cases a probit model is applied to those cases that are not identically predicted by mes concerning returns to scale results indicate that technical efficiency size and age are the factors that compel mes to yield the same prediction as the dea approach

determinants of capital structure in irish smes this paper presents an empirical examination of determinants of the capital structure of a sample of 299 irish small and medium sized enterprises smes results suggest that age size level of intangible activity ownership structure and the provision of collateral are important determinants of the capital structure in smes a generalisation of zellner s journal of the american statistical association57 348 368 1962 seemingly unrelated regression sur approach is used to examine industry effects and to test the stability of parameter estimates across sectors we find that the influence of age size ownership structure and provision of collateral is similar across industry sectors indicating the universal effect of information asymmetries firms overcome the lack of adequate collateralisable firm assets in two ways by providing personal assets as collateral for business debt and by employing additional external equity to finance research and development projects

does entry size matter the impact of the life cycle and technology on firm survival a wave of empirical studies has recently emerged showing that smaller scale entry is confronted with a lower likelihood of survival than their larger counterparts the purpose of this paper is to examine whether the relationship between size of a firm when entering an industry and the likelihood of survival holds under different technological conditions and across the different stages of the industry life cycle the empirical evidence suggests that the relationship between firm size and the likelihood of survival is shaped by technology and the stage of the industry life cycle while the likelihood of survival confronting small entrants is generally less than that confronting their larger counterparts the relationship does not hold for mature stages of the product life cycle or in technologically intensive products in mature industries that are still technologically intensive entry may be less about radical innovation and possibly more about filling strategic niches thus negating the impact of entry size on the likelihood of survival

regulatory environments and the location decision evidence from the early foreign market entries of new technology based firms new technology based firms ntbfs embarking on a strategy of rapid internationalisation choose foreign market entries that minimise transaction costs and the related risks of failure means to reduce the young firms vulnerability to the appropriation of intellectual capital are particularly important influences on early foreign market choices we explore the effect of the institutional dimension specifically the national regulatory environment on the location choices and the speed of internationalisation by british and german ntbfs we provide evidence that entrepreneurial young firms choose to enter country markets offering better regulatory protection for their intellectual property this decision is moderated by a home regulatory regime bias in contrast we observe that the speed of internationalisation is influenced less by the foreign regulatory regime and more by industry and firm characteristics we also observe that managerial experience influences the location choices of ntbfs facing regulatory hazards

a status based model of market competition this article explores the significance of status processes for generating and reproducing hierarchy among producers in a market it develops a conception of a market as a status order in which each

an ecology of ideology theory and evidence from four populations this paper analyzes the founding rates of two types of jewish agricultural cooperatives the moshav and the kibbutz to show how political ideology intersects with resource requirements to produce competition and mutualism between organizations these two populations which share ideology and a resource base competed with each other they both enjoyed mutualism with the population of credit cooperatives which represented a kindred ideology but relied on different resources they both suffered competition from the population of corporations which represented a rival ideology capitalism copyright 2004 oxford university press

gender differences in firm performance evidence from new ventures in the united states abstract prior studies examining the performance of female and male owned firms have generally reported that female owned firms underperform male owned firms however it is conceivable that the performance measures used by previous studies and or their inability to control for key demographic differences may have contributed to this finding for example few studies use size adjusted performance measures and yet we know that female owned firms tend to be smaller than their male counterparts similarly risk is typically not considered even though evidence suggests that women tend to be more risk averse than men we use a longitudinal five year database of more than 4000 new ventures that began operations in the u s in 2004 to determine whether potential differences in the performances of female and male owned firms disappear when appropriate performance measures are used and important demographic differences are controlled for in the models the performance measures we examine include 4 year closure rates return on assets roa and a risk adjusted measure sharpe ratio univariate test results confirm our expectation based on both liberal and social feminist theory that there is no difference in the performance of female and male owned new ventures provided performance is appropriately measured further these results are supported by our multivariate analyses which control for demographic differences such as industry experience and hours worked our findings should be of interest to researchers financiers advisors and policy makers perhaps more importantly our findings should also ensure that women who are contemplating starting a new venture are not discouraged from doing so by a false belief that new ventures initiated by women are less likely to succeed than those initiated by men

corporate taxes and the demand for labor and capital in developing countries this article provides evidence about the impact of corporate taxation on both labor and capital demand by private companies in a developing economy using firm level data from chile our results show that higher corporate tax rates reduce not only the demand for capital but also the demand for labor due to complementarities between both inputs an interesting element of the results presented in this article is the asymmetry between the effects of taxation according to company size the impact on labor demand is significantly higher in large corporations than in small enterprises while the demand for capital is more responsive to corporate tax changes in small firms we can explain these results based on differences in credit constraints according to firm size

interrelationships among the elements of national innovation systems a statistical evaluation abstract an obstacle often faced by countries in attempting to improve the standard of living of their people and the productivity of their economic base is a low level of technological development at the national level such a problem may be conceptualized in the form of a national innovative system nis which represents a country s involvement in innovative activity it is the purpose of this paper to develop a comprehensive nis model through the identification of elements which characterize a country s nis and of the interrelationships embedded in each individual system the point of departure is to treat the nis as any other sector of the economy as a result its various elements are delineated according to their role within the nis as inputs outputs moderators or as a measure of productivity the nature of the interrelationships is assessed through a structural equations model linking the various elements it is shown that substantial commonalities exist among the basic elements of the various niss notwithstanding large differences in technology development strategies that exist across countries and the wide disparity between levels of development of each country in the sample

an aggregate model of the credit union industry prior to 1971 credit unions cus were almost exclusively short term lenders with their deposit base consisting primarily of passbook share accounts radical institutional changes during the 1970 s have reshaped the industry and increased the competition between cus and other financial institutions the introduction of federal share insurance in 1971 coupled with the highest deposit ceiling allowed by regulators allowed cus to attract funds from other intermediaries while cus have a yield advantage they have been much slower to introduce day of deposit to day of withdrawal interest accumulation so that many cu deposits may be regarded more as short term certificate accounts rather than open passbooks thus as the federal reserve system and the federal home loan bank board have liberalized cu yields maturities and minimum denominations it has affected cus ability to attract share deposits substantial competition exists in loan markets as well banks finance companies and the credit acceptance subsidies of many manufacturing corporations also extend consumer credit while cus have entered mortgage markets in this study a six equation simultaneous model is developed to estimate three different aggregate flows within the industry new loan extensions net share flows and net change in financial investments two price variables the average cu loan rate and average dividend rate and the median maturity on newly extended loans to account for endogenous changes in non price terms which may affect both the supply and demand for loans this study is important to both researchers and policymakers despite the movement to make credit unions more like and more competitive with other financial institutions there remains a general perception that cus are different that they cannot be analyzed by applying well known economic theories and methods and that they remain insulated from both general economic conditions and competition the evidence from this study suggests that those perceptions are in error even though the industry remains small relative to other providers of consumer financial services because cus are no longer insulated it is important to know the impact of changing economic conditions on the industry department of economics john carroll university funding by the national credit union administration ncua is gratefully acknowledged participants in a seminar at ncua provided the author with seveal suggestions which were incorporated in the research special thanks are due to john wolken who spent countless hours in discussion with the author and catherine melfi and george kosicki who provided research assistance any remaining errors or omissions are the sole responsibility of the author

variable risk preferences in new firm growth and survival we outline and test a decision making theory of new venture growth and survival building upon research in entrepreneurship and decision making under risk we hypothesize that entrepreneurs attention to survival and aspiration reference points changes based on venture age experience based learning size differences in decision complexity and performance decision domain examining a panel of 14 760 new ventures in the professional services sector our findings show how risk preferences change as a venture ages and increases in size this approach offers a more nuanced view of decision making under risk and provides a theoretical explanation for the common patterns of new ventures probability of exit and growth diminishing with age and size

effect of credit guarantee policy on survival and performance of smes in republic of korea this study evaluates the effect of credit guarantee on smes at the firm level to estimate the effect of credit guarantee we analyze relations between credit guarantee the survival of guaranteed firms and their productive performance the result indicates that credit guarantee frequency enabled guaranteed firms to achieve good performances in general on the contrary the effect of guarantee amounts is ambiguous in that there is difference between the contemporary effect and the lagged effect therefore we conclude that credit guarantee satisfied partially its goal to alleviate smes difficulty in acquiring finance and to stabilize employment

the direct employment effects of new businesses in germany revisited an empirical investigation for 1976 2004 based on an improved and extended database the establishment history panel we extend the analysis of fritsch and weyh small business economics 27 2 245 260 2006 by investigating the development of employment in german start up cohorts for the period 1976 to 2004 we confirm the typical pattern found in start up cohorts an initial increasing number of employees that is soon followed by a decreasing number we also provide some of the first evidence for the liability of aging phenomena in germany older firms face a relatively high risk of exit we find that most entries with relatively large initial employment grow substantially in the first two decades however these businesses suffer from a considerable employment decline after 25 years

an intertemporal model of industrial exit a finite horizon model of industrial exit is developed after an initial lag most exits are by young firms the duration of the lag is positively related to sunk entry costs but not due to the fallacy of sunk costs the conception of entry differs from previous research as a result not all entrants are identical and firm size affects the rate of learning on average larger new firms last longer entrepreneurs in declining firms act more lazily as the firm declines a number of empirical observations about declining firms are organized by the model

on the relationship between firm size and export intensity export marketing literature supports the view that firm size is positively related to export intensity although the empirical findings have been mixed a number of theoretical arguments are used to support this proposition i e international marketing economies of scale limited managerial and financial resources of small firms decisionmaker s risk perception based on a large survey of the italian manufacturing industry the article falsifies the proposition and challenges some widely held assumptions in export marketing literature

social comparison and effort provision evidence from a field experiment social comparison has potentially far reaching consequences in many economic domains we conducted a field experiment to examine how social comparison affects workers effort provision if their own wage or that of a co worker is cut workers were assigned to groups of two performed identical individual tasks and received the same performance independent hourly wage cutting both group members wages caused a decrease in performance but when only one group member s wage was cut the affected workers decreased their performance more than twice as much as when both workers wages were cut this finding indicates that social comparison among workers affects effort provision because the only difference between the two wage cut treatments is the other group member s wage level in contrast workers whose wage was not cut but who witnessed their group member s pay being cut displayed no change in performance relative to the baseline treatment in which both workers wages remained unchanged this indicates that social comparison exerts asymmetric effects on effort jel c93 j33 m53

the relationship between firm growth size and age estimates for 100 manufacturing industries this study uses a sample of all firms operating in 100 manufacturing industries to examine some aspects of firm dynamics it finds that firm growth the variability of firm growth and the probability that a firm will fail decrease with firm age it also finds that firm growth decreases at a diminishing rate with firm size even after controlling for the exit of slow growing firms from the sample gibrat s law therefore fails although the severity of the failure decreases with firm size copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

social networking websites who survives abstractthis article studies the relationship between the characteristics of social networking sites snss and their probability of survival the data sample includes 224 snss launched throughout the world from 1995 to 2015 and that can be described by focus strategy business financing methods and interactions with external companies such as partnerships mergers and acquisitions three factors are systematically associated with closure hazard rates first compared with snss that address a specialized audience generalist snss have a three times higher probability of closing second being the target of a merger or acquisition more than doubles the probability of closure third new entrants have higher probability to survive if compared with snss with experience in the industry

relative poverty as a determinant of migration evidence from poland we explore the relationship between aggregate relative poverty and migration we draw upon polish regional data and use a measure of aggregate relative poverty that is functionally related to the gini coefficient we find that the gini coefficient and migration are positively correlated holding the population s per capita income constant

the propensity to patent abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between 1974 rd among the exceptions the tendency was toward diminishing returns variables measuring overseas sales federal r d support diversification scope of invention use and invention type had only modest explanatory power there was no significant evidence of disproportionate patent accumulation in the more highly concentrated industries

technological regimes and firm survival evidence across sectors and over time in addition to the usual variables representing firm and industry specific features that impact the firm s survival this paper uses three r d related variables to reflect two schumpeterian technological regimes creative destruction the entrepreneurial regime and creative accumulation the routinized regime after controlling for age size entry barriers capital intensity the profit margin the concentration ratio the profit cost ratio and entry rates the empirical results confirm the theoretical relationship between technological regimes and the survival rate of new firms new firms are more likely to survive under the entrepreneurial regime moreover this effect is larger within the younger cohorts of firms than within the older ones

migration for degrading work as an escape from humiliation this paper develops a model of voluntary migration into degrading work the essence of the model is a tension between two bads that which arises from being relatively deprived at home and that which arises from engaging in humiliating work away from home balancing between these two bads can give rise to an explicit voluntary choice to engage in humiliating work the paper identifies conditions under which a migrant will choose to engage in degrading work rather than being forced into it to work abroad as a prostitute say rather than on a farm the paper delineates the possible equilibria and finds that greater relative deprivation will make it more likely that the equilibrium outcome will be engagement in prostitution it is shown that under well specified conditions every individual will work as a prostitute yet every individual would be better off working on a farm put differently when specific conditions are satisfied there is a possibility of a coordination failure if individuals believe that everyone else will choose to be a prostitute this belief will be self fulfilling in this case all the individuals choose to engage in prostitution which renders each of them worse off the paper discusses various policy implications it is shown that a policy intervention a crackdown on migrants engagement in prostitution if implemented strictly can increase everyone s welfare but when the policy is implemented loosely cracking down on prostitution will only reduce individuals welfare without reducing their engagement in prostitution

investment and the behavioral theory of the firm evidence from shipbuilding investment in production assets is a strategic decision that results from organizational search and risk taking the behavioral theory of the firm predicts that performance below the aspiration level and slack resources initiate organizational search risk theory predicts that performance below the aspiration level increases risk tolerance this paper integrates these theories to form a theory of problem and slack driven strategic change and applies it to the growth of production assets the predictions are tested by analyzing the growth of production assets in the japanese shipbuilding industry yielding clear evidence that high performance causes low asset growth but no effect of slack copyright 2003 oxford university press

learning from age difference interorganizational learning and survival in japanese foreign subsidiaries this paper extends research on experiential learning of foreign subsidiaries by exploring the temporal conditions under which a foreign subsidiary can benefit from the experience of its sister subsidiaries building upon organizational evolution and learning literature we propose that differences in entry timing among sister subsidiaries provide structural conditions that bound the opportunities for inter subsidiary learning we argue that different entry cohorts of sister subsidiaries are beneficial to a focal subsidiary as they provide non redundant complementary experience from their different operational stages and ignite the motivation to learn our empirical analysis of japanese foreign subsidiaries provides strong evidence that survival is enhanced by the experience of different entry cohorts of sister subsidiaries but not by that of similar cohorts qualitative evidence also shows that multiple channels of experience exchange across sister subsidiaries lead to actual learning we further show that the survival benefit derived from different cohorts is contingent on the level of environmental change as well as on the level of experience of the focal subsidiary and its parent firm our research highlights the importance of temporal heterogeneity in the internationalization process and offers implications for the temporal strategy of multinational companies

migration when social preferences are ordinal steady state population distribution and social welfare this paper adds three dimensions to the received literature it models migration when the individuals preferences regarding their relative incomes are ordinal it works out the resulting spatial steady state distribution of the individuals and it shows that the aggregate of the individuals migration choices in the spatial steady state distribution sums to the social optimum this finding does not apply when the individuals preferences regarding their relative incomes are cardinal we highlight the importance of the assumption about the nature of the individuals social preferences whether ordinal or cardinal to studying and predicting their migration behaviour and to elucidating the consequences of that behaviour for social welfare

a time to grow and a time to die growth and mortality of credit unions in new york city 1914 1990 one vision of organizational evolution suggests that old and large organizations become increasingly dominant over their environment a second suggests that as organizations age they become less able to respond to new challenges in this article the authors investigate which of these visions best characterizes the evolution of state chartered credit unions in new york city from 1914 through 1990 by analyzing the effects of organizational age size and population density on rates of organizational failure and growth the authors find evidence that old and small institutions are more likely to fail while young and small organizations have the highest growth rates

innovation and firm growth does firm age play a role this paper explores the relationship between innovation and firm growth for firms of different ages we hypothesize that young firms undertake riskier innovation activities which may have greater performance benefits if successful or greater losses if unsuccessful using an extensive spanish community innovation survey sample for the period 2004 2012 we apply panel quantile regressions to study the effect of r d activities on firm growth i e sales growth productivity growth and employment growth our results show that young firms face larger performance benefits from r d at the upper quantiles of the growth rate distribution but face larger decline at the lower quantiles r d investment by young firms therefore appears to significantly riskier than r d investment by more mature firms which suggests some policy implications

bigger may be better but is older wiser organizational age and size in the new york life insurance industry the author explores the effects of organizational size and age on failure rates among new york life insurance companies between 1813 and 1985 theorists tend to agree that organizational growth and aging processes increase organizational inertia but they disagree on the effect of that inertia on failure rates he finds that organizational size affects failure rates nonmonotonically but over the actual range of sizes large size almost always lowers failure rates he also finds a strong liability of aging this runs counter to ecological theories of liabilities of newness and adolescence an empirical test of the relative effects of age during periods of environmental turbulence and calm indicates that organizational inertia is especially problematic during turbulent times this suggests that the liability of aging occurs more through obsolescence than senescence at least in the population of insurance companies he investigate

endogenous selection of comparison groups human capital formation and tax policy this paper considers a setting in which the acquisition of human capital entails a change of location in social space that causes individuals to revise their comparison groups skill levels are viewed as occupational groups and moving up the skill ladder by acquiring additional human capital which in itself is rewarding leads to a shift in the individual s inclination to compare himself with a different and on average better paid comparison group which in itself is penalizing the paper sheds new light on the dynamics of human capital formation and suggests novel policy interventions to encourage human capital formation in the aggregate and at the same time reduce inter group income inequality

competitiveness of nations a knowledge discovery examination this paper presents the insights gained from the use of data mining and multivariate statistical techniques to identify important factors associated with a country s competitiveness and the development of knowledge discovery in databases kdd models to predict it in addition to stepwise regression and weighted non linear programming techniques intelligent learning techniques artificial neural networks and inferential techniques classification and regression trees were applied to a dataset of 43 countries from the world competitiveness yearbook wcy the dataset included 55 variables on economic internationalization governmental financial infrastructure management science and technology as well as demographic and cultural characteristics exploratory data analysis and parameter calibration of the intelligent method architectures preceded the development and evaluation of reasonably accurate models mean absolute error 5 5 and subsequent out of sample validations the strengths and weaknesses of each of the kdd techniques were assessed along with their relative performance and the primary input variables influencing a country s competitiveness our analysis reveals that the primary drivers of competitiveness are lower country risk rating and higher computer usage in entrepreneurial urbanized societies with less male dominance and basic infrastructure with higher gross domestic investment savings and private consumption more imports of goods and services than exports increased purchase power parity gdp larger and more productive but not less expensive labor force and higher r d expenditures without diminishing the role and importance of wcy reports our approach can be useful to estimate the competitiveness of many countries not included in wcy while our findings may benefit policy makers and international agencies to expand their own abilities insights and establish priorities for improving country competitiveness

new firm survival new results using a hazard function a limitation of audretsch s 1991 study of new firm survival was the level of aggregation to industries this precluded linking establishment specific characteristics such as organizational structure and size to post entry performance the purpose of this paper is to relate the post entry performance of individual establishments not only to their technological and market structure environments but also to establishment specific characteristics we do this by estimating a hazard duration function for more than 12 000 individual establishments in u s manufacturing started in 1976 by tracking their subsequent performance over a ten year period we conclude that establishment specific characteristics which audretsch was not able to capture in his earlier study play an important role in shaping the exposure to risk confronting new establishments copyright 1995 by mit press

establishment exits in germany the role of size and age using comprehensive data for west germany this paper investigates the determinants of establishment exit we find that between 1975 and 2006 the average exit rate has risen considerably in order to test various liabilities of establishment survival identified in the literature we analyzed the impact of establishment size and put a special focus on differences between young and mature establishments our empirical analysis shows that the mortality risk falls with establishment size which confirms the liability of smallness the probability of exit is substantially higher for young establishments which are not more than 5 years old thus confirming the liability of newness there also exists a liability of aging since exit rates first decline over time reaching a minimum at ages 15 18 and then rise again somewhat the determinants of exit differ substantially between young and mature establishments suggesting that young establishments are more vulnerable in a number of ways

why do most firms die young a model is developed to explain why most firms die in the first few years of trading a risk averse entrepreneur with initial capital endowment faces a brownian motion in net worth over time to balance return profits growth and risk variance of profits she adopts a portfolio strategy choosing market positioning to achieve an optimal combination of risk and return at each instant given her financial and human capital endowments and attitude towards risk failure occurs when the firm s value falls below the opportunity cost of staying in business the resulting distribution of failure is inverse gaussian implying for specific parameter values a positively skewed failure curve of the type observed in practice in addition the model presents a novel measure of management human capital mhc which implies that high mhc entrepreneurs will have higher absolute and marginal profits growth than low mhc entrepreneurs at given levels of risk

evolution roots and influence of the literature on national systems of innovation a bibliometric account the literature on the national systems of innovation nsi is a relatively new field of research that has spread remarkably in the past 20 years this article offers a complementary quantitative description of the state of the art of the literature based on bibliometric methods by explicitly addressing the roots evolution and influence of nsi literature the exercise shows that over time the rate of published articles was quite irregular and that contributions on nsi have not yet converged to an integrated analytical framework although historically detailed descriptions on nsi showed a noticeable increase in the more recent period 2006 2010 analyses using more formal and diversified quantitative methodologies for assessing the performance of nsi remained lacking reflecting its persisting methodological weaknesses the roots of the nsi literature can be found at the core of innovation studies by certain well known scholars in the area of economics of innovation and science policy research even though publications on nsi are falling in relative importance and are highly concentrated on a small set of countries united kingdom denmark and the united states their influence is global they are cited by authors affiliated in organisations around the world notably in latin america and asia such an influence goes far beyond the area of innovation studies and has resonated in fields such as economic geography environmental studies international business and managerial sciences this demonstrates that the nsi literature is not self referential

a theory of inalienable property rights why do democratic societies often impose legal restrictions that render various assets or entitlements inalienable to the individual the explanation proposed here is that these constraints arise as an institutional response against financial markets that in a sense work too well that is i demonstrate how a well functioning financial market can potentially work against a social policy designed to ensure a basic minimum standard of living for all types of individuals inalienable property rights and debt constraints emerge as a natural institutional response to the improvident tendencies of some members of society when a majority of individuals share a common distaste for neighborhood squalor

density dependence versus population dynamics an ecological study of failings in the california wine industry in this ecological study we show that the particular curvilinear formulation of the relationship between density and the failing rate of organizations proposed by hannan and freeman does not hold for the california wine industry between 1940 and 1985 we demonstrate instead that an alternative model focusing on prior foundings and prior failings gives a superior account of the failing rate in this population we argue that hannan and freeman s density dependent model of organizational mortality systematically overstates the negative effects of illegitimacy on business organizations we argue further that their model underestimates business organizations ability to avoid elimination by migrating to neighboring niches and by enlarging their initial niche

the dynamics of organizational status this paper examines the growth and decline of organizational status it is argued that an organization s status is determined by two factors past performance outcomes and the status of the organization s affiliates the better the past performance outcomes and the higher the status of the affiliates the greater the organization s growth in status this basic proposition is tested in an examination of status changes among investment banks in the non investment grade market between 1981 and 1987 implications and extensions are discussed in the conclusion copyright 1996 by oxford university press

when is gibrat s law a law the purpose of this article is to investigate if the industry context matters for whether gibrat s law is rejected or not using a dataset that consists of all limited firms in five digit nace industries in sweden during 1998 2004 the results reject gibrat s law on an aggregate level since small firms grow faster than large firms however gibrat s law is confirmed about as often as it is rejected when industry specific regressions are estimated it is also found that the industry context e g minimum efficient scale market concentration rate and number of young firms in the industry matters for whether gibrat s law is rejected or not

relative deprivation and migration preferences in this letter we overcome the existing shortages with respect to the assignment of individuals to reference groups and are the first to show that individual aversion to relative deprivation plays a decisive role in shaping migration preferences

goodwill intertemporal price dependence and the repurchase decision stigler s i96i pioneering article on the economics of information directed economists attention to market situations where the classical assumption of perfect knowledge could not be supported his theory pictured a world in which prices were not known to the consumer a priori information being scarce was also costly but information had clear economic value to those wishing to possess it focus of the new theory thus came to be on an individual optimising over benefits expected price reductions and costs time spent canvassing to the activity of information gathering or search whilst this new direction taken by consumer theory has been towards greater descriptive realism the attendant drawbacks have been several technical complexities of formulation have commonly resulted in highly simplified models with utility linear in prices and purchase restricted to a single unit of the good even when time has been explicitly taken into account an invariable assumption has been the independence of prices from one period to the next 2 after twenty years stigler still remains alone in the literature as having made an attempt to integrate the idea of intertemporally correlated prices with the important economic concept of goodwill the present paper is an attempt to remedy within the context of a single model the above mentioned deficiencies the main emphasis of the paper as the title suggests is on the role of goodwill and intertemporal price dependence in the repurchase decision the decision whether or not to buy again at the same store or to look around the framework proposed is a dynamic one in which the consumer has in each period to a finite horizon an ex post and ex ante utility maximisation problem the ex post problem concerns her consumption decision in any period once prices are known the ex ante problem her decision as to how much

a theory of migration as a response to occupational stigma a theory is developed of labor migration that is prompted by a desire to avoid social humiliation in a general equilibrium framework it is shown that as long as migration can reduce humiliation sufficiently migration will occur even between two identical economies migration increases the number of individuals who choose to perform degrading jobs and consequently migration lowers the price of the good produced in the sector that is associated with low social status moreover the greater an individual s aversion to performing degrading jobs the more likely it is that he will experience a welfare gain when the economy opens up

relative importance of political instability and economic variables on perceived country creditworthiness this paper examines the relative importance of political instability and economic variables on perceived country creditworthiness our results indicate that both political instability and economic variables are taken into account in evaluating country creditworthiness however it appears that bankers assign larger weight to economic variables hence it seems that the country creditworthiness perceptions are largely based on a country s economic performances which we except to reflect longer term political stability in addition the frequency of changes in the regime and armed conflict both proxying for political instability also affect the credit ratings

the post entry performance of new small firms in german manufacturing industries while recent years have witnessed a growing interest in research on market entry by new firms evidence regarding their postentry performance is scarce this paper uses longitudinal data for small firms that entered german manufacturing industries between 1979 and 1982 and monitors their performance until 1990 entrants face a high risk of failure hazard rates tend to increase during the first years and to decrease afterwards decline of employment in a cohort due to exits and shrinking firms is compensated by growing survivors no clear cut nexus between start up size and probability of survival shows up copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

are business startups debt rationed using a large random sample of u k start ups and a rich data set the paper demonstrates that human capital is the true determinant of survival and that the correlation between financial capital and survival is spurious provision of finance is demand driven with banks supplying funds elastically and business requests governing take up firms self select for funds on the basis of the human capital endowments of the proprietors with better businesses more likely to borrow a reason why others have seemingly identified start up debt gaps may be the failure to test a sufficiently rich empirical model copyright 1996 by royal economic society

the importance of relative performance feedback information evidence from a natural experiment using high school students we study the effect of providing relative performance feedback information on performance under piece rate incentives a natural experiment that took place in a high school offers an unusual opportunity to test this effect in a real effort setting for one year only students received information that allowed them to know whether they were above below the class average as well as the distance from this average we exploit a rich panel data set and find that the provision of this information led to an increase of 5 in students grades moreover the effect was significant for the whole distribution however once the information was removed the effect disappeared to rule out the concern that the effect may be driven by teachers within the school we verify our results using national level exams externally graded for the same students and the effect remains

microfinance subsidies and local externalities we analyse equilibrium borrowers effort and the cost of microcredit loans in the presence of moral hazard project correlation and subsidies under group lending conditions our results show that under the assumption of endogenous effort project correlation has significant effects on borrowers effort only when it is determined by asymmetric positive or negative shocks these findings indicate that the well known negative effect of within group symmetric project correlation on group lending with joint liability disappears once endogenous effort is taken into account we also analyse the effects of subsidised lending and asymmetric correlation on the relative convenience in terms of borrowers effort of the alternative 1 between group lending and individual lending with notional collateral and 2 among three different market structures of the microfinance industry

profitability transactional alignment and organizational mortality in the u s trucking industry the winds of creative destruction rarely blow more fiercely than in a newly deregulated environment managers simultaneously face a novel focus on operating efficiency and an onslaught of new competitors what must managers do to enable their firms to survive in such an environment what factors bear on firms survival this paper presents an analysis of mortality of large motor carriers in the u s interstate for hire trucking industry after deregulation it examines this phenomenon through a multidisciplinary lens that encompasses organizational ecology neoclassical economics and transaction cost economics the paper posits that carrier mortality is a function of both firm level and industry level attributes which are drawn from both ecological and economic theories while each of these theories separately informs motor carrier mortality the inclusion of predictions derived from both disciplines in one model significantly increases explanatory power over either theory evaluated alone the empirical analysis is among the first to show increased mortality when firms do not adhere to operating policies consistent with transaction cost minimization principles in sum managers are well advised to adopt a multidisciplinary approach to strategy to ensure their firms survival 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

migration incentives migration types the role of relative deprivation the authors explore the role of relative deprivation versus absolute income as an incentive for migration in developing countries in section i of this paper we outline the relative deprivation model of migration and present an illustration of the divergent policy implications of a relative deprivation model versus an absolute income model an attempt is made to identify distinct empirical implications of relative and absolute income motives for migrating in section ii a migration decision model is estimated and is used to explore absolute and relative income motives for internal and international migration in a sample of rural mexican households as well as to test the extent to which discontinuity in labour markets shapes the choice of migrant destination in section iii we present our conclusions excerpt