the heterogeneous dependence between global crude oil and chinese commodity futures markets evidence from quantile regression this paper explores the dependence between global crude oil and chinese commodity futures markets across different quantiles of the return distributions based on weekly data from 11 june 2004 to 7

an emerging paradigm or just another trajectory understanding the nature of technological changes using engineering heuristics in the telecommunications switching industry abstract the theoretical literature on technological changes distinguishes between paradigmatic changes and changes in trajectories recently several scholars have performed empirical studies on the way technological trajectories evolve in specific industries often by predominantly looking at the artifacts much less if any empirical work has been done on paradigmatic changes even though these have a much more profound impact on today s industry it follows from the theory that such studies would need to focus more on the knowledge level than on the artifact level raising questions on how to operationalize such phenomena this study aims to fill this gap by applying network based methodologies to knowledge networks represented here by patents and patent citations the rich technological history of telecommunications switches shows how engineers in the post war period were confronted with huge challenges to meet drastically changing demands this historical background is a starting point for an in depth analysis of patents in search of information about technological direction technical bottlenecks and engineering heuristics we aim to identify when such changes took place over the seven different generations of technological advances this industry has seen in this way we can easily recognize genuine paradigmatic changes compared to more regular changes in trajectory

nonrenewable resource scarcity nonrenewable resource theory often is summarized by hotelling s rule this paper reviews theoretical extensions and empirical investigations of resource extraction models observed data are often inconsistent with the hotelling rule suggesting that other characteristics of nonrenewable resource supply including exploration heterogeneous ore quality technological progress and capital investment are important determinants of the dynamic behavior of resource prices given the persistent recurrence of concern about nonrenewable resource scarcity measures of nonrenewable resource scarcity and the empirical evidence for the time trends of those measures are reviewed finally the implications of nonrenewable resource scarcity for economic growth are examined

food versus fuel an updated and expanded evidence abstract this paper replicates the study of zhang et al 2010 food versus fuel what do prices tell us energy policy 38 pp 445 451 we confirm the findings of the original paper that there was only a weak relationship between ethanol and food commodities in the period between march 1989 and july 2008 in addition we extend that study and examine the cointegration relationship between biofuels and related commodities for a considerably enlarged dataset 3 vs 1 market 26 vs 8 commodities analysis up till 2017 vs 2008 weekly vs monthly data frequency focusing on the biofuel markets of brazil the eu and the usa in the three separate periods before during and after the food crisis of 2007 and 2008 we show that studying the time variation of the relationships plays an essential role in their proper understanding our results help to clarify the wide extensive discussion about the role of biofuels prices in food shortages manifested particularly during the food crises in agreement with the original study we confirm that price series data do not support strong statements about biofuels uniformly serving as main leading source of high food prices and consequently the food shortages

preconditions windows of opportunity and innovation strategies successive leadership changes in the regional jet industry abstract we analyse the drivers of two successive leadership changes in the regional or mid sized jet market a particularly dynamic segment of the commercial aircraft industry in the first instance bombardier a canadian newcomer assumed leadership over the incumbents bae and fokker in 1995 in 2005 the brazilian firm embraer became the market leader in terms of number of regional jet deliveries our theoretical framework considers discontinuities in the building blocks of sectoral innovation systems as windows of opportunity for which challenger firms can devise strategic responses allowing them to assume market leadership it also considers preconditions as necessary capabilities limiting the number of potential challenger companies the analysis of leadership change shows that more efficient engines and technological improvements in subsystems changing oil prices business cycles liberalization of air transport services scope clauses and government interventions provided technological demand and regulatory windows of opportunity launching new aircraft families an architectural innovation targeting the 50 and the 100 120 seat niche markets gave first bombardier s crj family and later embraer s e jet family the leadership the fate of failed challengers and incumbents point to the importance of incumbent traps technological and financial capabilities the timing of windows of opportunity speedy strategic response a proper evaluation of future demand and sheer luck as long lead times and sunk costs entrap incumbents and other inadequately responding companies

the impact of global oil price shocks on china s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries this paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on china s fundamental industries metals petrochemicals grains and oilfats we separated the volatilities of oil price into expected unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets we contrasted the results between different periods and among classified indices in order to discover the significant changes in recent years and the differences at an industry level our results indicate that the aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities in china the impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007 the metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices in contrast to the petrochemicals and oilfats indices these results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature but also merit particular attention from policy makers and market investors in china

oil and gas markets in the uk evidence from a cointegrating approach the paper examines the relationship between uk wholesale gas prices and the brent oil price over the period 1996 2003 in order to investigate whether oil and gas prices decoupled during this period as orthodox gas market liberalisation theory suggests tests for unit roots and cointegration are carried out and it is discovered that a long run equilibrium relationship between uk gas and oil prices exists moreover this relationship pre dates the opening of the uk mainland europe interconnector following a recursive methodology hansen h and johansen s 1999 some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated var models econometrics journal 2 306 333 it was found that the cointegrating relationship is present throughout the sample period however the long run solutions seem to be more volatile evidence is provided that the short run relationship is linear and impulse response functions are used to examine the effects that a shock in oil would have on gas these findings do not support the assumption that gas prices and oil prices decouple

oil price shocks and their short and long term effects on the chinese economy a considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil price shocks for the developed economies however there has been a lack of empirical study of this kind on china and other developing countries this paper attempts to fill this gap by answering how and to what extent oil price shocks impact china s economy emphasizing on the price transmission mechanisms to that end we develop a structural vector auto regressive model our results show that an oil price increase negatively affects output and investment but positively affects inflation rate and interest rate however with the differentiated price control policies for materials and intermediates on the one hand and final products on the other hand in china the impact on real economy represented by real output and real investment lasts much longer than that to price monetary variables our decomposition results also show that the short term impact namely output decrease induced by the cut of capacity utilization rate is greater in the first one to two years but the portion of the long term impact defined as the impact realized through an investment change increases steadily and exceeds that of short term impact at the end of the second year afterwards the long term impact dominates and maintains for quite some time

high frequency volatility connectedness between the us crude oil market and china s agricultural commodity markets abstract this paper investigates the realised volatility connectedness of us crude oil futures and five china s agricultural commodity futures using connectedness measures and high frequency data time varying volatility connectedness characteristics are identified by combining a multivariate heteroscedastic autoregressive har model with the dcc garch model the results verify the existence of volatility spillover from the us crude oil market to china s agricultural commodity markets although the magnitude of this spillover is weak furthermore the realised volatility is decomposed into positive and negative components to identify the asymmetric effect of volatility connectedness the results show that market interdependence has obviously increased for negative volatility relative to positive volatility implying that volatility transmission has a leverage effect across markets

prospective analysis of technological innovation systems identifying technological and organizational development options for biogas in switzerland abstract in this article we put forward a concept for the identification and analysis of future development options of technological innovation systems the key element of our approach the so called variation analysis is a methodology to identify coherent socio technical and organizational variants within a specific innovation field consistent combinations of these two dimensions may be interpreted as nuclei for alternative future developments of innovation systems the method may be used in discursive foresight processes to inform strategy formulation of firms or policy makers who see a utility in furthering the innovation field the paper has a focus on developing the theoretical background and the analytical structure of the methodology empirically we illustrate the method for the innovation system of biomass digestion in switzerland

the triple helix an evolutionary model of innovations abstract the lock in model by arthur arthur w b 1988 competing technologies in dosi g freeman c nelson r silverberg g soete l eds technical change and economic theory pinter london pp 590 607 can be extended to the case of two and even three sources of random variation thus one can model a triple helix of university industry government relations in the case of two sources the stabilization of a technological trajectory is enhanced while in the case of three a complex regime can be generated conditions for lock in lock out return to equilibrium substitution etc are specified in relation to the assumed complexity of the dynamics under study and with reference to the stage of development that is before or after lock in some normative implications of the triple helix model of innovations can be specified

oil prices the role of refinery utilization futures markets and non linearities we test the hypothesis that real oil prices are determined in part by refinery capacity non linearities in supply conditions and or expectations and that observed changes in these variables can account for the rise in prices between 2004 and 2006 results indicate that the refining sector plays an important role in the recent price increase but not in the way described by many analysts the relationship is negative such that higher refinery utilization rates reduce crude oil prices this effect is associated with shifts in the production of heavy and light grades of crude oil and price spreads between them non linear relationships between opec capacity and oil prices as well as conditions on the futures markets also account for changes in real oil prices together these factors allow the model to generate a one step ahead out of sample forecast that performs as well as forecasts implied by far month contracts on the new york mercantile exchange and is able to account for much of the 27 rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006

metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks abstract this study uses three two factor volatility models of the garch family to examine the volatility behavior of three strategic commodities gold silver and copper in the presence of crude oil and interest rate shocks the results of the standard garch models suggest that gold and silver have almost the same volatility persistence which is greater than that of copper the cgarch estimates indicate that the short run transitory component of volatility converges to zero much faster for copper than for gold and silver in this sequence however the permanent volatility component demonstrates equally strong persistence in the long run for all three metals the egarch results suggest that the leverage effect is present and significant for copper only implying that gold and silver can be good investment in anticipation of bad times past oil shock does not impact all three metals similarly monetary policy and to leaser extent the oil shocks have calming effects on precious metals but not on copper if the t bill rate is used crises such as the 2003 iraq war heighten metal volatility these results have implications for derivatives valuations using gold as a reserve asset risk analysis and for the commodity exporting countries and commodity producing firms

oil price shocks and european industries abstract we investigate the impact of oil price shocks at the industry level in the euro area for the period 1983 2007 we use different oil price specifications and use dynamic var models and multivariate regression to investigate how 38 different industries respond to oil price shocks we pay specific attention to the asymmetry of the industries responses regarding oil price increases and decreases we find that the impact of oil price shocks substantially differs along the different industries we find that the significance of this result also differs along the various oil price specifications the results are quite robust to the way in which we model the problem

beggar thy neighbour exchange rate regime misadvice from misapplications of mundell 1961 and the remedy economists invoke mundell 1961 in arguing for the general policy of a flexible exchange rate regime as a means of restoring equilibria after shocks but there is a discrepancy between the intent of the general policy and attempts at its implementation as identified by specific changes in exchange rates when we assemble the set of specific changes called for by distinct economists operating as advocates for individual countries these are uniformly in the form of beggar thy neighbour advice i e travesties of objectively identifying disequilibria and a menace to international cooperation and peace this paper traces the unintended travesties to problems of complexity and uncertainty problems that implicitly are assumed absent in mundell 1961 rendering the situation so simple that equilibria are transparent the problems remained essentially unaddressed when economists extended mundell 1961 via expected utility theory since this theory also ignores the impossibility of maximising and the complexities of central bankers private firms and others in doing the evaluation stage in reaching decisions the problems can be overcome by modelling within skat the stages of knowledge ahead theory this paper points to experimental evidence in support of the view that under all sorts of disequilibrating shocks currency unions outperform flexible currencies by eliminating the inefficiencies generated by exchange rate uncertainty

the effects of oil price shocks on the iranian economy abstract the iranian economy is highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks and major macroeconomic variables in iran by applying a var approach the study points out the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks for instance positive as well as negative oil price shocks significantly increase inflation we find a strong positive relationship between positive oil price changes and industrial output growth unexpectedly we can only identify a marginal impact of oil price fluctuations on real government expenditures furthermore we observe the dutch disease syndrome through significant real effective exchange rate appreciation

geometric brownian motion and structural breaks in oil prices a quantitative analysis the purpose of this paper is to present a quantitative analyses of oil price s path we try to argue that despite its parsimony and simplicity geometric brownian motion can perform well as a proxy for the movement of oil prices and for a state variable to evaluate oil deposits we base our argument on evidences of very low speed of mean reverting or long half life since unit root tests only can reject its null hypothesis in a sample longer than 100 years on the other hand we reject the null hypothesis of unit root with two endogenous breaks showing that the usual rejection can be attributed to omitted structural breaks we conclude that the average half life of oil price between 4 and 8 years depending on the model chosen is long enough to allow a good approximation as a geometric brownian motion

modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon emission market the role of outliers time varying jumps and oil price risk abstract the objectives of this study are three fold first we aim to assess whether outliers or extreme observations occur in the european union allowance eua data second we examine if time varying jumps are present in the carbon emission market third we use the crude oil volatility index ovx to investigate the effect of oil market uncertainty on the emission price volatility in order to detect the possible outliers in the eua market we employ a standard methodology proposed by ane et al 2008 and identify several outliers in the emission data after spotting and then removing those extreme points we apply the garch jump models to both original and outlier free observations the results of the jump model show that while time varying jumps do exist in the uncorrected data most of the jump parameters however become insignificant in case of outlier free observations next the application of an extended egarch model in which ovx is introduced in the garch specification demonstrates that emission prices are highly sensitive to oil market implied volatility and that the impact of ovx on the eua market appears to be asymmetric additionally the use of forecast encompassing test documents that considering the outlier free data and using the information content of ovx would improve the volatility forecasts for the carbon emission market the results of our research carry important implications for both investors and policymakers

the microstructure of exchange rate management fx intervention and capital controls in brazil this article uses a microstructure approach to analyse the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in brazil to counter an appreciation of the real based on a rich data set from the brazilian foreign exchange market we estimate a reduced form var to characterize the interaction of the central bank financial and commercial customers in times of regulatory policy measures we find that capital controls change market participants behaviour and that central bank interventions elicit a significant response in financial order flow referring to the source of order flow we find no direct price impact by financial flows and thus no evidence that the appreciation of the real is driven by financial customers activity instead commercial customers seem to be a primary driver of the real within our model

spillover network of commodity uncertainties abstract we study time and frequency connectedness among 22 commodity uncertainty indexes applying spillover analysis and network graphs we find that overall connectedness among commodity uncertainties increase during the global financial crisis gfc and the oil price collapse of 2014 16 network analysis shows more spillover within a specific commodity class and that precious metals due to less spillover with other commodities may serve as safe haven during the crisis the decomposition of spillover index reveals that commodity markets are more connected in long run implications of findings are discussed

measuring the knowledge base of an economy in terms of triple helix relations among technology organization and territory can the knowledge base of an economy be measured in this study we combine the perspective of regional economics on the interrelationships among technology organization and territory with the triple helix model and offer the mutual information in three dimensions as an indicator of the configuration when this probabilistic entropy is negative the configuration reduces the uncertainty that prevails at the systems level data about more than a million dutch companies are used for testing the indicator the data contain postal codes geography sector codes proxy for technology and firm sizes in terms of number of employees proxy for organization the configurations are mapped at three levels national nuts 1 provincial nuts 2 and regional nuts 3 the levels are cross tabled with the knowledge intensive sectors and services the results suggest that medium tech sectors contribute to the knowledge base of an economy more than high tech ones knowledge intensive services have an uncoupling effect but less so at the high tech end of these services

impact of food price volatility on the us restaurant sector although fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices appear to be a source of risk to the us restaurant sector the effect that volatility of food price has on the performance returns of that s

the directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets new evidence from implied volatility indexes in this paper we use a set of newly introduced implied volatility indexes to investigate the directional connectedness between oil and equities in eleven major stock exchanges around the globe from 2008 to 2015 the inference on the oil equity implied volatility relationships depends on diebold and yilmaz 2012 2014 2015 who proposed a set of directional measures that enable the dynamic and directional characterization of the relationships among financial variables we find uniform results across the sample countries indicating that the connectedness between oil and equity is established by the bi directional information spillovers between the two markets however we find that the bulk of association is largely dominated by the transmissions from the oil market to equity markets and not the other way around the pattern of transmissions is varying over the sample period however most of the linkages between oil and equities are established from the mid of 2009 to the mid of 2012 which is a period that witnessed the start of global recovery

estimating the effects of information surprises and trading on stock returns using a mixed jump diffusion model i present a methodology that uses the mixed jump diffusion model for stock returns to estimate the separate effects of information surprises and strategic trading around corporate events using simulation techniques i show that for events with multiple announcements spread over a long time the estimators derived from the mixed jump diffusion model are more powerful compared to the traditional cumulative abnormal return estimators the new methodology is used to study the separate effects of information surprises and strategic trading associated with blockholdings and subsequent targeted repurchases i find that for more than 93 percent of the firms in our sample the mixed jump diffusion model is statistically superior to the pure diffusion model in describing stock returns more important i find a statistically significant negative effect due to trading while the average effect around announcements is statistically insignificant in contrast the standard cumulative abnormal return is not statistically different from zero article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

why do oil prices jump or fall this paper discusses theories that can explain the zig zags of oil prices in general and in particular the recent jump more precisely the following explanations are discussed homo oeconomicus pure profit maximization if demand is dynamic and convex price reaction function price increases and respectively declines depend on capacity utilization cartelization contingent on output or revenues of which the latter can lead to backward bending supply segments and multiple equilibria statistical descriptions mean reversion homo politicus i e arguments for price hikes that are rational public choice despite the long run economic loss finally two approaches are presented that emphasize demand uncertainty one extending the above mentioned dynamic demand framework and the other considers a dynamic game of non competitive suppliers with lumpy investments summing up a demand shock seems to be the most suitable explanation of today s high prices indeed a shock given that international energy agency iea and department of energy doe were promising just a couple of years ago that we are going to have lots of oil at low prices while others and in particular politics have surprisingly little or no explanatory power

knowledge and urban economic development an evolutionary perspective knowledge is considered as a main source of economic growth for nations and regions it is the basis for technological development and for increasing the productivity of capital and labour this pa

oil price shocks and stock market returns evidence for some european countries abstract in this paper we examine the impact of oil price shocks on stock returns in 12 oil importing european economies using vector autoregressive var and vector error correction models vecm for the period 1973 02 2011 12 we propose an alternative oil price shock specification that takes into account both world oil production and world oil prices in order to disentangle oil supply and oil demand shocks we find that the response of the european real stock returns to an oil price shock may differ greatly depending on the underlying causes of the oil price change the results suggest the existence of a negative and significant impact of oil price changes on most european stock market returns furthermore we find that stock market returns are mostly driven by oil supply shocks

oil price dynamics 2002 2006 abstract oil price dynamics during 2002 2006 have been characterized by high volatility high intensity jumps and strong upward drift and were concomitant with underlying fundamentals of oil markets and world economy namely pressure on oil prices resulting from rigid crude oil supply and expanding world demand for crude oil a change in the oil price process parameters would require a change in underlying fundamentals market expectations extracted from call and put option prices anticipated no change in underlying fundamentals in the short term markets expected oil prices to remain volatile and jumpy and with higher probabilities to rise rather than fall above the expected mean

do green investments react to oil price shocks implications for sustainable development abstract this study investigates whether green investments are connected to oil price shocks while earlier papers mainly investigate the linkage between clean energy stock and crude oil prices we consider recently introduced environmental indexes consisting of companies that use eco friendly production processes and develop green infrastructures using the markov regime switching regression approach we observe that the effect of crude oil prices on environmental investments appears to be statistically insignificant albeit positive in most of the cases one possible reason behind such a finding is that the oil dependence is limited to the case of eco friendly firms the results further indicate switching between low and high volatility regimes implying that there exist high and low volatility states for green assets given that growing concerns about climate change and energy security would inspire market participants shift towards ethical investments our results could be of interest to investors aiming at decarbonizing their portfolios by including more environmental assets one important finding of our empirical analysis is that green assets are found to be more susceptible to oil market volatility rather than to oil price fluctuations this is a novel finding given that prior literature focusing on the association of oil sectors and green assets mainly consider the information on oil prices rather than oil volatility hence our study aims to conceal an important void in the exiting literature

assessment and optimization of clean energy equity risks and commodity price volatility indexes implications for sustainability abstract although clean energy equities have emerged as a new asset class for market participants especially environmentally concerned investors existing and previous studies pay very little attention to how equity investors in clean energy markets can reduce their downside risk the authors of this paper address this void by considering the roles of the commodity market volatility indexes of crude oil gold and silver the results of the dynamic conditional correlation model show that commodity volatilities and clean energy equity prices move in opposite directions based on the hedging effectiveness each of the three volatility indexes acts as an effective tool for reducing the risk of clean energy equity indexes the implied volatility index of crude oil is the most effective tool followed by that of gold and silver further analysis indicates the robustness of the results to the application of an asymmetric conditional correlation model the findings extend the limited understanding of how to hedge the downside risk of clean energy stock indexes and provide useful implications to market participants on the ability of implied volatility indexes of major commodities to hedge that risk

does vix or volume improve garch volatility forecasts abstractthis article considers whether the inclusion of two additional variables can improve volatility forecasts over a standard garch based model we consider three alternative ways of incorporating the volatility index vix and trading volume as exogenous variables within a selection of garch models we are particularly interested in whether these variables have additional incremental forecast power over and above the baseline garch specification our results suggest that both the vix and volume do provide some additional forecast power and this is generally improved when considering both of these series jointly in the model however while the results may be statistically significant the gain is marginal and the coefficient values small moreover in a horse race exercise vix does not outperform the garch approach in answering the question of whether vix produces better forecasts than the garch model then the answer is no but the informational content of vix cannot be ignored and should be incorp

how do china s petrochemical markets react to oil price jumps a comparative analysis of stocks and commodities abstract the profound impacts of oil price jumps have caught the attention of scholars because the 2008 global financial crisis has seemingly already passed the existence of oil price jumps is in doubt in this paper we provide evidence that the threat of dynamic jumps still exists in the global oil market in the post crisis period while the stocks and commodities of china s petrochemical markets are both affected by those jumps to the best of our knowledge this is the first study of the reaction of petrochemical markets to oil price jumps in the post crisis period in addition a comparative analysis of petrochemical stocks and petrochemical commodity market is provided in particular we analyze the reactions of the returns and volatility of these markets to oil price jumps we obtained the following findings first the returns of petrochemical stocks and petrochemical commodities are both negatively affected by current oil price jumps while the effects of lagged jumps on these returns are opposite theoretically the former is a reflection of panic induced by extreme risk information while the latter is a reflection of rationality in speculators second the volatilities of petrochemical stocks and petrochemical commodities respond differently to oil price jumps the former is not affected whereas the latter is positively and negatively affected by current and last oil price jumps respectively finally all the above conclusions still hold when considering the effects of normal oil price volatility even after the co movement between oil prices and petrochemical markets is eliminated

volatility spillovers in china s crude oil corn and fuel ethanol markets price volatility spillovers among china s crude oil corn and fuel ethanol markets are analyzed based on weekly price data from september 5 2003 to august 31 2012 employing the univariate egarch model and the bekk mvgarch model respectively the empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil corn and fuel ethanol markets after september 2008 in the overall sample period the results simultaneously provide strong evidence that there exist unidirectional spillover effects from the crude oil market to the corn and fuel ethanol markets and double directional spillovers between the corn market and the fuel ethanol market however the spillover effects from the corn and fuel ethanol markets to the crude oil market are not significant

a complexity approach to innovation networks the case of the aircraft industry 1909 1997 successful innovation depends on complementary competencies in networks of producers users and governmental bodies the effects of complementarities within innovation networks are modeled using kauffman s nk model from the model the hypothesis is derived that producers users and governments self organize in specialized innovation networks producers of particular technologies increasingly focus on particular user markets in particular countries data on 863 aircraft models 1909 1997 show these strong specialization patterns in the post war period policy implications are indicated emphasizing the recent rise in transnational collaborations which can be understood as a means of escaping historical specialization patterns

jump dynamics with structural breaks for crude oil prices this study investigates the joint phenomena of permanent and transitory components in conditional variance and jump intensity along with verification of structural breaks for crude oil prices we adopt a component arji model with structural break analysis utilizing daily data on west texas intermediate crude oil spot and futures contracts the analytical results verify the existence of permanent and transitory components in conditional variance with the permanent component of conditional variance increasing with the occurrence of a sudden major event such as the iraqi invasion of kuwait operation desert storm and the war between the us and iraq and a relatively greater increase in the transitory component over the same period notably jump intensity fluctuates with an increase in the transitory component of conditional variance in response to abnormal events it is the transitory component which serves as the primary influential factor for jumps in returns therefore speculators are willing to take large risks particularly with respect to anticipating future price movements or gambling in the hopes of rapidly making substantial gains thus speculators prefer the temporary volatility component and engage in trade activities however investors prefer the permanent volatility component because they may well be better off relocating their assets into more stable portfolios to outperform the market portfolio over the long run

dynamic jumps in global oil price and its impacts on china s bulk commodities abstract this paper investigated the impacts of oil price shocks especially dynamic jumps in its returns on china s bulk commodity markets at both the aggregate and industry levels after setting a zero lower bound to the jump intensity of the arji model we found that dynamic jumps exist in oil price movements moreover under shocks of oil price jumps not only the returns but also the risks of china s bulk commodity markets are affected significantly and the reactions of risks are characterized by overreactions meanwhile by decomposing oil price shocks into expected positive negative and unexpected positive negative components we discovered that the impacts of unexpected shocks are positive and significantly asymmetric at both levels while those of the expected shocks are negative and insignificantly asymmetric at the industry level in addition the volatility clustering of all price movements and the permanent volatility effects on china s bulk commodities are also authenticated by applying the garch family models

the impact of energy prices on clean energy stock prices a multivariate quantile dependence approach abstract we assess the impact of quantile price movements in oil gas coal and electricity on the quantiles of clean energy stock returns using a multivariate vine copula dependence setup for the period 2009 2016 our evidence shows that oil and electricity prices were major contributors to the dynamics of clean energy stock returns in the usa and the eu respectively whereas the other energy prices played a minor role in shaping clean energy stock returns furthermore we find evidence of a symmetric energy price impact so extreme upward and downward energy price movements had a similar impact on clean energy stock returns this evidence has potential implications for risk management decision making by energy investors and for policy maker decisions regarding support for clean energy deployment

grade selection under uncertainty least cost last and other anomalies abstract grade selection rules for heterogeneous resource deposits with increasing marginal extraction costs are derived it is shown that contrary to the conventional wisdom it can be optimal to extract the least cost deposits last there are a number of rules that are compatible with dynamic profit maximization under certainty nevertheless none explains empirical regularities in actual extraction patterns when uncertainty about future price is introduced however the theoretical model conforms closely not only to observed grade selection patterns but also to observed mineral industry price paths

time frequency causality and connectedness between international prices of energy food industry agriculture and metals abstract this study analyzes the lead lag relationship between the price indices of energy fuels and each of food industrial inputs agriculture raw materials metals and beverages in the time frequency domain to this end we first use the wavelet coherency and phase differences next we use the diebold and yilmaz 2012 and barunik and krehlik 2017 spillover indices to analyse the connectedness among the set of the price indices under consideration the period of the study is 1990m1 to 2017m5 the wavelet coherency results reveal that there are important and significant relations between the fuel and food prices the fuel and industrial prices and the fuel and metal prices these results also show that there are phase relationships between those paired prices the volatility spillover results indicate that the agricultural sector is the most affected by shocks from the other markets the return series of the industrial input prices at all frequencies appears to be the main source of volatility transmission to the prices of the other commodities over the whole period this finding underlines the relevance of the industrial inputs to policy makers particularly when they design policies to provide incentives related to industrial production

oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices abstract while the impacts of oil price changes on agricultural commodity markets are of great interest to economists previous studies do not differentiate oil specific shocks from aggregate demand shocks in this paper we address this issue using a structural var analysis our findings indicate that the responses of agricultural commodity prices to oil price changes depend greatly on whether they are caused oil supply shocks aggregate demand shocks or other oil specific shocks mainly driven by precautionary demand oil shocks can explain a minor friction of agricultural commodity price variations before the food crisis in 2006 2008 whereas in post crisis period their explanatory abilities become much higher after crisis the contributions of oil specific factors to variations in agricultural commodity prices are greater than those of aggregate demand shocks the results from an alternative svar confirm the robustness of our main findings

wavelet based test of co movement and causality between oil and renewable energy stock prices abstract we studied co movement and causality between oil and renewable energy stock prices using continuous and discrete wavelets firstly to obtain information on dynamic correlations over time and for different time scales from wavelet coherence and secondly to obtain information on linear and non linear granger causality in the time frequency domain for general and sectoral renewable energy indices for the period 2006 2015 our findings indicate that dependence between oil and renewable energy returns in the short run was weak but gradually strengthened towards the long run mainly for the period 2008 2012 our causality tests provide evidence against linear causality at higher frequencies and in favour of unidirectional and bidirectional linear causality at lower frequencies in contrast we found consistent evidence of non linear causality running from renewable energy indices to oil prices at different time horizons and mixed evidence of causality running from oil to renewable energy prices these results have potential implications for investors in terms of hedging and for policymakers in terms of policy support decisions regarding the development of renewable energy

optimal diversity increasing returns versus recombinant innovation abstract choices regarding diversity play an important role in economics and innovation management but often remain implicit once made explicit the objectives of efficiency and diversity are usually posed as in conflict as efficiency relates positively and diversity negatively to various increasing returns to scale in markets such a perspective however neglects the benefits of diversity in terms of realizing system improvements through recombinant innovation or spillovers the latter implies a contribution of diversity to long term efficiency dominant economic approaches that address diversity such as option value and real options theories regard benefits of diversity as exogenous this paper proposes a simple model of variable endogenous diversity to analyse the optimal balance between increasing returns to scale and recombinant innovation it is discussed under which conditions one of four solutions is optimal complete specialization regardless of which option complete specialization in one specific option symmetric diversity perfect balance and asymmetric diversity the results give rise to a number of policy insights

world oil prices precious metal prices and macroeconomy in turkey we examine the long and short run transmissions of information between the world oil price turkish interest rate turkish lira us dollar exchange rate and domestic spot gold and silver price we find that the world oil price has no predictive power of the precious metal prices the interest rate or the exchange rate market in turkey the results also show that the turkish spot precious metals exchange rate and bond markets do not also provide information that would help improve the forecasts of world oil prices in the long run the findings suggest that domestic gold is also considered a safe haven in turkey during devaluation of the turkish lira as it is globally it is interesting to note that there does not seem to be any significant influence of developments in the world oil markets on turkish markets in the short run either however transitory positive initial impacts of innovations in oil prices on gold and silver markets are observed the short run price transmissions between the world oil market and the turkish precious metal markets have implications for policy makers in emerging markets and both local and global investors in the precious metals market and the oil market

the effect of global oil price shocks on china s precious metals market a comparative analysis of gold and platinum abstract this paper investigated the impacts of global crude oil price shocks on china s precious metals market using the meliorated autoregressive conditional jump intensity arji model chan and maheu 2002 and the extended autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity arma garch gronwald 2012 based on the comparative analysis of gold and platinum markets the results showed that discrete jumps existed in the crude oil market considering the volatility clustering of oil returns the effect of oil price expected shocks on precious metals market was negative 0 7025 1 3341 due to the profitability of capital while that of unexpected shocks was positive 0 0211 0 0645 which can be explained by the adaptive expectation theory in terms of discrete jumps the impact of current jumps on precious metals market was significantly negative 1 4810 2 6775 according to the risk transmission theory and the responses tended to be characterized by overreactions in addition some evidence also suggested permanent volatility effects in china s precious metals market

conditional jump dynamics in stock market returns this article develops a new conditional jump model to study jump dynamics in stock market returns we propose a simple filter to infer ex post the distribution of jumps this permits construction of the shock affecting the time t conditional jump intensity and is the main input into an autoregressive conditional jump intensity model the model allows the conditional jump intensity to be time varying and follows an approximate autoregressive moving average arma form the time series characteristics of 72 years of daily stock returns are analyzed using the jump model coupled with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch specification of volatility we find significant time variation in the conditional jump intensity and evidence of time variation in the jump size distribution the conditional jump dynamics contribute to good in sample and out of sample fits to stock market volatility and capture the rally often observed in equity markets following a significant downturn

modeling renewable energy company risk abstract the renewable energy sector is one of the fastest growing components of the energy industry and along with this increased demand for renewable energy there has been an increase in investing and financing activities the tradeoff between risk and return in the renewable energy sector is however precarious renewable energy companies are often among the riskiest types of companies to invest in and for this reason it is necessary to have a good understanding of the risk factors this paper uses a variable beta model to investigate the determinants of renewable energy company risk the empirical results show that company sales growth has a negative impact on company risk while oil price increases have a positive impact on company risk when oil price returns are positive and moderate increases in sales growth can offset the impact of oil price returns and this leads to lower systematic risk

the impact of oil price shocks evidence from the industries of six oecd countries most of the studies about the macroeconomic consequences of oil price shocks have been focused on us aggregate data in contrast to these studies this paper empirically assesses the dynamic effect of oil price shocks on the output of the main manufacturing industries in six oecd countries the pattern of responses to an oil price shock by industrial output is diverse across the four european monetary union emu countries under consideration france germany italy and spain but broadly similar in the uk and the us moreover evidence on cross industry heterogeneity of oil shock effects within the emu countries is also reported

world oil and agricultural commodity prices evidence from nonlinear causality abstract the increasing co movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities this study extends the literature on the oil agricultural commodity prices nexus which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices corn soybeans and wheat to this end the linear causality approach of toda yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of diks panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010 the linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis in contrast the nonlinear causality analysis shows that i there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices and ii there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices the findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers farmers and global investors this study also suggests the directions for future studies

oil price uncertainty and clean energy stock returns new evidence from crude oil volatility index abstract earlier studies evidence that oil price shocks have significant impacts on clean energy stock returns while the previous literature uses traditional oil price series to investigate such effects we aim to assess whether the variance of alternative energy stock returns can be explained using the information content of crude oil volatility index ovx an indicator of oil price uncertainty to serve our purpose we employ several measures to frame the realized volatility rv of alternative energy sector equity returns in particular we use three different range based rv estimators recommended by parkinson 1980 rogers and satchell 1991 and alizadeh et al 2002 respectively our findings reveal that clean energy stock market returns are highly sensitive to ovx shocks thus oil market uncertainty measured by ovx embodies a crucial role in modeling the volatility of renewable energy equity returns in addition we find a strong indication that ovx provides additional information beyond what is contained in the historical volatilities of equity returns we also document that the magnitude of the effect of ovx is much bigger than that of the realized variance of wti oil spot prices finally we find that the information content of crude oil volatility index improves the volatility forecasts for the clean energy equity market

changing crude oil price effects on us agricultural employment the effect of changes in the price of crude oil on agricultural employment in the usa between 1947 and 1995 is investigated after reviewing previous assessments of the issue the existence of an empirical relationship between agricultural employment and crude oil price changes is established using granger causality subsequently the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable effects of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in agricultural employment are exhausted finally the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in agricultural employment and changes in the price of crude oil the percentage changes in expected net farm income realized technological innovation and the wage rate is studied

impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in nigeria abstract the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomy has received a great deal of attention since the 1970 s initially many empirical studies found a significant negative effect between oil price shocks and gdp but more recently empirical studies have reported an insignificant relationship between oil shocks and the macroeconomy a key feature of existing research is that it applies predominantly to advanced oil importing countries for oil exporting countries different conclusions are expected but this can only be ascertained empirically this study conducts an empirical analysis of the effects of oil price shocks on a developing country oil exporter nigeria our findings showed that oil price shocks do not have a major impact on most macroeconomic variables in nigeria the results of the granger causality tests impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis all showed that different measures of linear and positive oil shocks have not caused output government expenditure inflation and the real exchange rate the tests support the existence of asymmetric effects of oil price shocks because we find that negative oil shocks significantly cause output and the real exchange rate

forecasting crude oil market volatility further evidence using garch class models abstract this paper extends the work of kang et al 2009 we use a greater number of linear and nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch class models to capture the volatility features of two crude oil markets brent and west texas intermediate wti the one five and twenty day out of sample volatility forecasts of the garch class models are evaluated using the superior predictive ability test and with more loss functions unlike kang et al 2009 we find that no model can outperform all of the other models for either the brent or the wti market across different loss functions however in general the nonlinear garch class models which are capable of capturing long memory and or asymmetric volatility exhibit greater forecasting accuracy than the linear ones especially in volatility forecasting over longer time horizons such as five or twenty days

correlations and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies abstract in this paper multivariate garch models are used to model conditional correlations and to analyze the volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy companies and technology companies four different multivariate garch models bekk diagonal constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation are compared and contrasted the dynamic conditional correlation model is found to fit the data the best and generates results showing that the stock prices of clean energy companies correlate more highly with technology stock prices than with oil prices on average a 1 long position in clean energy companies can be hedged for 20 cents with a short position in the crude oil futures market

oil prices speculation and fundamentals interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices abstract a consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question where do innovations in oil prices enter the market here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from north america europe africa and the middle east on both spot and futures markets results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for dubai fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for west texas intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long run relationship between spot and future prices to change after september 2004 together these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time

long swings in exchange rates are they really in the data several authors have reported evidence of long swings in u s dollar exchange rates by rejecting the random walk in favor of a markov regime switching model we show that this evidence is not robust to an extension of the sample period one should however not conclude that long swings are thus absent because the tests may have insufficient power a possible reason for this is the low data frequency because existing tests are based on quarterly data and we find that the power can be increased substantially by raising the data frequency indeed weekly data reject the random walk so we conclude that long swings are in the data this conclusion is supported by significant superiority of regime switching over random walk out of sample forecasts of the direction of change

hedging emerging market stock prices with oil gold vix and bonds a comparison between dcc adcc and go garch while much research uses multivariate garch to model volatility dynamics and risk measures one particular type of multivariate garch model go garch has been underutilized this paper uses dcc adcc and go garch to model volatilities and conditional correlations between emerging market stock prices oil prices vix gold prices and bond prices a rolling window analysis is used to construct out of sample one step ahead forecasts of dynamic conditional correlations and optimal hedge ratios in most of the situations we study oil is the best asset to hedge emerging market stock prices hedge ratios from the adcc model are preferred most effective for hedging emerging market stock prices with oil vix or bonds hedge ratios estimated from the go garch are most effective for hedging emerging market stock prices with gold in some instances these results are reasonably robust to choice of model refits forecast length and distributional assumptions

oil price agricultural commodity prices and the dollar a panel cointegration and causality analysis abstract this study examines the dynamic relationship between world oil prices and twenty four world agricultural commodity prices accounting for changes in the relative strength of us dollar in a panel setting we employ panel cointegration and granger causality methods for a panel of twenty four agricultural products based on monthly prices ranging from january 1980 to february 2010 the empirical results provide strong evidence on the impact of world oil price changes on agricultural commodity prices contrary to the findings of many studies in the literature that report neutrality of agricultural prices to oil price changes we find strong support for the role of world oil prices on prices of several agricultural commodities the positive impact of a weak dollar on agricultural prices is also confirmed

economic impact of oil price shocks on the turkish economy in the coming decades a dynamic cge analysis as a small open economy turkey depends on both imported oil and natural gas importing almost two thirds of its primary energy demand this paper analyzes the economic effects of oil price shocks for turkey as a small open oil and gas importing country to analyze the potential long term effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables of interest including gdp consumer price inflation indirect tax revenues trade balance and carbon emissions we developed turgem d a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model for the turkish economy using turgem d we analyzed the impact of oil price shocks under three distinct scenarios reference high and low oil prices the simulation results show that these oil prices have very significant effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions in the turkish economy

time frequency dynamics of return spillover from crude oil to agricultural commodities we explore return spillover from crude oil to ethanol corn soybean and wheat on daily data during 17 may 2005 27 june 2018 this study is unique in capturing the time frequency dynamics of return

a characterization of oil price behavior evidence from jump models abstract this paper is concerned with the statistical behavior of oil prices in two ways it firstly applies a combined jump garch model in order to characterize the behavior of daily weekly as well as monthly oil prices secondly it relates its empirical results to implications of hotelling type resource extraction models the empirical analysis shows that oil prices are characterized by garch as well as conditional jump behavior and that a considerable portion of the total variance is triggered by sudden extreme price movements this finding implies that first oil price signals are not reliable and as a consequence both finding optimal extraction paths and decisions regarding the transmission to alternative technologies are likely to be compromised second this behavior is in stark contrast to the notion of deterministic trends in the price of oil

the effect of global oil price shocks on china s agricultural commodities abstract this paper studied the effect of global oil price shocks on agricultural commodities in china including strong wheat corn soybean bean pulp cotton and natural rubber we regarded oil price volatility process as a combination of continuous process and jump process we not only separated oil price shocks into positive and negative categories to identify different effects on agricultural commodities in continuous process but also investigated how jump behavior influenced these agricultural commodities we found that the oil price was characterized by volatility clustering and jump behavior at the same time oil price shocks had different effects on agricultural commodities in addition the shocks on most agricultural commodities were asymmetric only natural rubber was under influence of the jump intensity of the oil price in contrast to strong wheat corn soybean bean pulp and cotton

speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets a bayesian analysis this paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil corn and wheat futures prices from november 1998 to january 2009 model parameters are estimated using bayesian markov chain monte carlo methods speculation scalping and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established including mean reversion an asymmetry between returns and volatility volatility clustering and infrequent compound jumps we find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil corn and wheat markets after the fall of 2006 this can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production

knowledge and competitive advantage the coevolution of firms technology and national institutions this issue of jibs offers reviews of two books that analyse the dynamic interaction between the business environments and business strategies in very different ways the institutional underpinnings for business strategies are a major research topic for comparative management aiming to explain why in different contexts firms pursue different strategies and with different implications for performance j peter murman in knowledge and competitive advantage takes a historical perspective focusing on the co evolutionary processes between national innovation systems business strategies and performance this books thus adds to the industry level longitudinal research reviewed in jibs no 4 2003 tom murtha et al s managing new industry creation and david mckendrick et al s from silicon valley to singapore

impact of silver price uncertainty on solar energy firms abstract to the best of our knowledge we are the first to investigate if silver market uncertainty impacts the stock price performance of solar energy firms such investigation could be of vital importance to investors and policymakers given that silver is heavily utilized in photovoltaic pv process for producing solar energy methodologically we apply the garch jump process to estimate the effect of silver market uncertainty proxied by silver volatility index vxslv on the global solar energy stock indexes using a recent data set we document the following key findings first there exists a negative effect of vxslv on the equity indexes under study this result suggests that an upsurge in silver market volatility would create a chaos in the solar energy business second the impact of silver volatility index on renewable energy firms holds even when we control for the impact of oil price volatility ovx albeit ovx when compared to vxslv transmits higher risk to alternative energy stocks as evidenced by the magnitudes of the estimated parameters third the impact of silver market uncertainty appears to be symmetric implying that increases and decreases in vxslv would have a homogeneous impact on the solar energy stock returns we finally show that equity prices of solar energy firms are characterized by time varying jumps the implications of the results are discussed as well

oil price hikes and development triggers in peace and war the theory of irreversible investment predicts that development of an oil field should take place when a unique price trigger is passed at the start of the 1990 91 gulf war however oil prices promptly doubled only to fall back to their previous level when peace returned six months later to incorporate such large but transitory price hikes we evaluate the profitability of an oil field contingent on war and peace and calculate separate triggers in each case for plausible parameter values we find that the switch between these development triggers is about 45 of the price hike caused by the war the price hike is therefore equivalent to a permanent price increase of only a quarter of its size copyright 1996 by royal economic society

the dynamics of innovation from national systems and mode 2 to a triple helix of university industry government relations abstract the triple helix of university industry government relations is compared with alternative models for explaining the current research system in its social contexts communications and negotiations between institutional partners generate an overlay that increasingly reorganizes the underlying arrangements the institutional layer can be considered as the retention mechanism of a developing system for example the national organization of the system of innovation has historically been important in determining competition reorganizations across industrial sectors and nation states however are induced by new technologies biotechnology ict the consequent transformations can be analyzed in terms of neo evolutionary mechanisms university research may function increasingly as a locus in the laboratory of such knowledge intensive network transitions

stock prices of clean energy firms oil and carbon markets a vector autoregressive analysis recent discussions of energy security and climate change have attracted significant attention to clean energy we hypothesize that rising prices of conventional energy and or placement of a price on carbon emissions would encourage investments in clean energy firms the data from three clean energy indices show that oil prices and technology stock prices separately affect the stock prices of clean energy firms however the data fail to demonstrate a significant relationship between carbon prices and the stock prices of the firms

electricity prices and fuel costs long run relations and short run dynamics the paper examines the long run relation and short run dynamics between electricity prices and three fossil fuel prices coal natural gas and crude oil using annual data for the u s for 1960 2007 the results suggest 1 a stable long run relation between real prices for electricity and coal 2 bi directional long run causality between coal and electricity prices 3 insignificant long run relations between electricity and crude oil and or natural gas prices and 4 no evidence of asymmetries in the adjustment of electricity prices to deviations from equilibrium a number of implications are addressed

the effect of global oil price shocks on china s metal markets this paper investigated the impacts of global oil price shocks on the whole metal market and two typical metal markets copper and aluminum we applied the autoregressive conditional jump intensity arji model combining with the generalized conditional heteroscedasticity grach method to describe the volatility process and jump behavior in the global oil market we separated the oil price shocks into positive and negative parts to analyze whether oil price volatility had symmetric impacts on china s metal markets we further used the likelihood ratio test to examine the symmetric effect of oil price shocks in addition we considered the jump behavior in oil prices as an input factor to investigate how china s metal markets are affected when jumps occur in the global oil market in contrast to the existing research paying little attention to this issue our results indicate that crude oil price shocks have significant impacts on china s metal markets and the impacts are symmetric when compared with aluminum copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks

world oil prices and agricultural commodity prices evidence from an emerging market abstract oil prices are thought to have direct effect on agricultural prices followed by an indirect effect through the exchange rate this paper examines the short and long run interdependence between world oil prices lira dollar exchange rate and individual agricultural commodity prices wheat maize cotton soybeans and sunflower in turkey to this end the toda yamamoto causality approach and generalized impulse response analysis for identification of the long and short run interrelationships are applied to the monthly data spanning from january 1994 to march 2010 the impulse response analysis suggests the turkish agricultural prices do not significantly react to oil price and exchange rate shocks in the short run the long run causality analysis reveals that the changes in oil prices and appreciation depreciation of the turkish lira are not transmitted to agricultural commodity prices in turkey hence our results support neutrality of agricultural commodity markets in turkey to both direct and indirect effects of oil price changes

is there dependence and systemic risk between oil and renewable energy stock prices abstract we study systemic risk and dependence between oil and renewable energy markets using copulas to characterize the dependence structure and to compute the conditional value at risk as a measure of systemic risk we found significant time varying average and symmetric tail dependence between oil returns and several global and sectoral renewable energy indices our evidence on systemic risk indicates that oil price dynamics significantly contributes around 30 to downside and upside risk of renewable energy companies these results have important implications for risk management and renewable energy policies

world crude oil and natural gas a demand and supply model abstract this paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918 1999 it analyzes the time series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918 1973 and 1973 1999 oil and gas prices were stable during the first period they became volatile afterwards reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973 demand price elasticities were too low however demand income elasticities were high supply price elasticities were also too low the elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

energy and food security linkages through price volatility abstract this study examines the linkages between energy price and food prices over the period 2000 2016 by using a panel var model in the case of eight asian economies our results confirm that energy price oil price has a significant impact on food prices according to the results of impulse response functions agricultural food prices respond positively to any shock from oil prices our results show that there is a linkage between energy and food security through price volatility since inflation in oil price is harmful for food security it would be necessary to diversify the energy consumption in this sector from too much reliance on fossil fuels to an optimal combination of renewable and nonrenewable energy resources that will be in favor of not only the energy security by also the food security in addition the paper found that the impact of biofuel prices on food prices is statistically significant but explains less than 2 of the food price variance however by increasing the demand for biofuel there should be more concern about the global increase in agricultural commodities prices and endangering food security especially in vulnerable economies