definition consistent measurement of exchange market pressure currencies can be under severe pressure but in a managed exchange rate regime that is not fully visible via the change in the exchange rate the literature has proposed a way to measure such exchange market pressure emp indirectly by adding interest rate changes and forex interventions to the exchange rate change we demonstrate that this measure is not consistent with the definition of emp and develop a new measure that is consistent this is first derived within the commonly used monetary exchange rate model then we generalize the analysis by avoiding the use of an exchange rate model we find that the interest rate should not be taken in the first difference form used so far but rather in level form and relative to the interest rate chosen if the country had no exchange rate objective applications on the european monetary system and east asian crises confirm that this improvement is highly relevant in practice

analytical marxism and the marxian theory of crisis a new phenomenon a self designated school of analytical marxism centred in particular around the work of john roemer jon elster and g a cohen analytical marxism begins with the unsupported premise of methodological individualism in marxs methodological holism investigation of structural limits to individual actions is precisely the result of considering the whole first this chapter briefly discusses marx s possibility theory of crisis marx has noted that there would be no crisis without the inner unity of factors that are apparently indifferent to each other the chapter demonstrates the importance of considering the whole explicitly and conducts a holistic thought experiment which represents capitalism as a relationship between one capitalist and his wage labourers in the rgime of one capital it is assumed that in order to secure a given increase in surplus value the rational capitalist initiates a given increase in the technical composition of capital keywords analytical marxism capitalism g a cohen holistic thought experiment john roemer jon elster marxian theory of crisis methodological individualism regime of one capital

dynamic coordination failures and the efficiency of the firm this paper examines the role of coordination devices such as work norms in creating and sustaining inefficient organizational practices in firms in a dynamic environment the role of signalling norms and product market competition in alleviating such inefficiencies is also examined in particular we show that cournot competition may increase the inefficiency of organizational practices

real exchange rate overvaluation and wto dispute initiation in developing countries why and when do developing countries file trade disputes at the world trade organization wto although financial conditions have long been considered an important driver of trade policy they have been largely absent from the literature on trade disputes we argue that developing country governments bring more trade dispute to the wto when overvalued real exchange rates put exporters at a competitive disadvantage this dynamic is most prevalent in countries where large foreign currency debt burdens discourage nominal currency devaluations that would otherwise serve exporters interests our findings provide an explanation for differences in dispute participation rates among developing countries and also suggest a new link between exchange rate regimes and trade policy

international coordination in the design of macroeconomic policy rules abstract the paper examines international issues that arise in the design and evaluation of macroeconomic policy rules it begins with a theoretical investigation of the effects of fiscal and monetary policy in a two country rational expectations model with staggered wage and price setting and with perfect capital mobility the results indicate that with the appropriate choice of policies and with flexible exchange rates demand shocks need not give rise to international externalities or coordination issues price shocks however do create an externality and this is the focus of the empirical part of the paper using a simple seven country model consisting of canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states optimal cooperative and non cooperative nash policy rules to minimize the variance of output and inflation in each country are calculated the cooperative policies are computed using standard dynamic stochastic programming techniques and the non cooperative policies are computed using an algorithm developed by finn kydland the central result is that the cooperative policy rules for these countries are more accommodative to inflation than the non cooperative policy rules

exploitation and time abstract this paper analyses exploitation and class formation in a dynamic context an intertemporal model of a subsistence economy is set up and among other results it is proved that in an interior equilibrium differential ownership of scarce productive assets is an inherent feature of a capitalist economy while exploitation tends to disappear in the long run asset inequality is therefore proved to be a normatively secondary though causally primary wrong it is also argued that these results raise several doubts about the possibility of providing robust micro foundations to marxian concepts by means of walrasian general equilibrium models

a progress report on marxian economic theory on the controversies in exploitation theory since okishio 1963 a progress report on marxian economic theory

the handbook of international macroeconomics preface 1 introduction rick van der ploeg amsterdam 2 quantity constrained models of open economies neil rankin warwick 3 imperfect competition and open economy macroeconomics huw d dixon york 4 relative price movements in dynamic general equilibrium models of international trade david backus nyu patrick kehoe pennsylvania and finn kydland carnegie mellon 5 international fiscal policy coordination and competition assaf razin and efraim sadka tel aviv 6 capital taxation in the world economy a lans bovenberg tilburg 7 history of the international monetary system implications for research in international macroeconomics and finance barry eichengreen berkeley 8 on inflation unemployment and the optimal exchange rate regime george alogoskoufis athens 9 macroeconomic policy speculative attacks and balance of payments crisis pierre richard agenor and robert p flood imf 10 continuous time models of exchange rates and intervention giuseppe bertola princeton 11 stylized facts of nominal exchange rate returns casper g de vries leuven 12 partial versus general equilibrium models of international capital market equilibrium 13 sovereign debt kenneth kletzer santa cruz 14 growth and external debt daniel cohen cepremap 15 growth and deficits in an interdependent world index

the choice of an exchange rate system and macroeconomic stability the recent theoretical literature regarding the choice of an exchange rate system has focused on how the choice of an exchange rate regime will affect the stability of the economy while the methodology and emphasis of the various theoretical arguments differ the common thread that runs through all is the notion that the appropriate exchange rate system will differ with the nature of the disturbance to the economy the substantive differences existing among the various studies are to a certain extent due to different criteria used for exchange system choice it is not surprising that one s beliefs with regard to the effect of exogenous shocks on exchange system choice will be sensitive to the objective function used for instance fischer 1977 and frenkel and aizenman 1982 focus on the minimization of real consumption shocks and derive the result that the greater the domestic money shocks the more likely is a float alternatively flood 1979 and aizenman 1983 with an objective of minimizing domestic price shocks conclude that the greater the domestic money shocks the more preferred is a fixed exchange rate while the evidence presented below will indicate which approach is more consistent with actual country practice we should first consider the rationale behind the criteria considered fischer appeals to basic micro theory when he says that concavity of utility functions expressed as a function of consumption justifies concern with the stability of consumption but it is not obvious that price stability is of itself undesirable

social cohesion and the evolution of altruism abstract in this paper we propose a stylized model to study how cohesion may affect the spread and consolidation of altruism in a large population where agents are involved in a local public good contribution game with their neighbors we show that if the contribution cost is moderate neither too high nor too low cooperation can invade and dominate the population if and only if group cohesion displays an intermediate value this reflects an interesting non monotonicity of cohesion in the evolution of altruism while some of it is needed to internalize the benefits of cooperation too much cohesion prevents the spread of altruism among the population at large

aspects of the optimal management of exchange rates abstract this paper shows that the choice of the optimal exchange rate regime depends on the stochastic shocks affecting the economy the higher the variance of real shocks the larger the desirability of fixity of exchange rates the desirability of exchange rate flexibility increases the larger are the variances of the shocks to the demand for money to the supply of money to foreign prices and to purchasing power parities when the economy produces traded and non traded goods the desirability of exchange rate flexibility diminishes the higher is the relative share of non traded goods and the lower are the elasticities of demand and supply of the two goods

currency fluctuations in the post bretton woods era the international monetary landscape that has emerged since the felling of bretton woods is characterized by a hybrid exchange rate system that lies somewhere between the textbook polar cases of a gold standard and a pure float this system has relatively flexible exchange rates between major countries active central bank intervention in the market for the major currencies and predominantly fixed exchange rates relative to the dollar or to some basket of currencies for less developed countries and newly industrializing nations the majority of research on currency markets since the early 1970s has focused on the characteristics of flexible exchange rates under this hybrid regime my thesis is that this research has been unsuccessful the proportion of monthly or quarterly exchange rate changes that current models can explain is essentially zero even after the fact forecasts that use actual values instead of forecasted values of the explanatory variables cannot explain major currency movements over the post bretton woods era this result is quite surprising since exchange rate changes would be entirely unpredictable only in very special cases of the theoretical models discussed as the discussion below will argue it is not a general implication of market efficiency that exchange rates follow a random walk process 1

foreign exchange market intervention in two small open economies the canadian and australian experience abstract we examine intervention by the bank of canada and the reserve bank of australia for daily data from 1989 to 1998 both central banks intervene in response to excessive exchange rate volatility and uncertainty volatility is the implied volatility of foreign currency futures options uncertainty is the kurtosis of the implied risk neutral probability density functions we also examine the impact of inflation targets unlike other studies we also consider commodity futures prices these turn out to help explain the effectiveness of intervention central bank intervention was largely unsuccessful in both countries though volatility and kurtosis were modestly affected

comparing the intensity of exchange market intervention with frenkel and aizenman s index of managed float abstract the large literature on the optimum intensity of foreign exchange market intervention contains two different characterizations of the central bank s policy choice variable most of the literature focuses on the central bank s intensity of intervention in the foreign exchange market and its implications for the domestic money supply an important contribution by frenkel and aizenman 1982 however carries out its analysis in terms of a so called index of managed float this note clarifies the relation between these policy measures by deriving the frenkel aizenman index from a standard specification of financial market equilibrium

liability dollarization exchange market pressure and fear of floating empirical evidence for turkey the objective of this article is to examine the relationship between liability dollarization and the exchange market pressure emp in turkey within an autoregressive distributed lag ardl and granger causality framework using monthly data from 1991 12 to 2006 08 the findings suggest that there exists a long term equilibrium relationship between emp and liability dollarization where liability dollarization granger causes emp both in the short and long run with no evidence of reverse causality this suggests that the predominance of foreign currency liabilities in the banks balance sheets in turkey induces a selling pressure in the exchange market as well as a fear of floating

one million miles to go taking the axiomatic road to defining exploitation this paper analyses the marxian theory of exploitation a general axiomatic approach is developed which is appropriate to study the concept of exploitation what it is and how it should be captured empirically two properties are presented that capture some fundamental marxian insights it is shown that contrary to the received view there exists a nonempty class of definitions of exploitation that preserve the relation between exploitation and profits called profitexploitation correspondence principle in general economies with heterogeneous agents complex class structures and production technologies with heterogeneous labour inputs however among the main approaches only the so called new interpretation satisfies the profitexploitation correspondence principle in general jel b51

competition and culture in an evolutionary process of equilibrium selection a simple example abstract competition tends to promote efficient equilibrium behavior through the higher survival of the organizations say firms that adopt it on the other hand culture understood as the inherited social pattern of behavior may induce certain short run inertias this paper analyzes a dynamic model of the struggle between these two forces in the evolution of alternative stable configurations of social behavior journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 l20

competition and the evolution of efficiency abstract this paper presents an evolutionary model of the relationship between inter firm competition and intra firm organizational or x efficiency we model x inefficiency within the firm as a prisoner s dilemma effort monitoring problem whose evolution is influenced by external competitive pressure from other firms a closed form stochastic equilibrium displaying survival of the fittest dynastic cycles is derived and analyzed the main result is that there exists a well defined sense in which competition is a surprisingly powerful force for efficiency

the forward exchange market speculation and exchange market intervention this paper examines two issues the first is the role of speculation in stabilizing the economy against stochastic disturbances increased speculation i stabilizes domestic income against disturbances in the domestic bond market and forward exchange market ii exacerbates the effect of foreign disturbances and iii may dampen or augment the effect of money market and output supply disturbances the second issue is the role of the forward market in stabilization policy forward market intervention does not provide monetary authorities additional leverage in stabilizing income beyond unsterilized spot market intervention intervention rules based on reactions to both the forward and the spot exchange rates however can outperform intervention policies responding to the spot rate alone regardless of the market in which intervention occurs

stabilization with wage indexation and exchange rate flexibility abstract this survey examines the role of wage indexation and exchange rate policy in dampening fluctuations in output around its target level it is demonstrated that the appropriate choice for wage indexation and exchange rate flexibility is highly sensitive to the nature and the relative importance of the shocks impinging upon the economy as well as to the relevant parameters in the economy moreover the question of the desired flexibility of the exchange rate should be studied in the context of wage indexation and vice versa this interdependence raises the possibility of both policies being complements or substitutes to each other depending on the number of shocks that perturb the economy

measuring the degree of exchange market intervention in a small open economy abstract in this article i introduce an index of intervention activity which can be calculated on the basis of observed data this intervention index measures intervention activity as the proportion of exchange market pressure relieved by exchange market intervention the properties of the intervention index are established analytically using a model of a small open economy with rational expectations the index is used to calculate measures of bilateral and multilateral intervention for canada over the period 1975 1990

estimating the degree of interventionist policies in the run up to emu based on a theoretical monetary exchange rate model in continuous time this article establishes a sequential estimation framework which is capable of indicating central bank intervention in the run up to a currency union using daily pre european monetary union pre emu exchange rate data for the countries of the current euro zone we find mixed evidence of active pre emu intervention policies so called institutional frontloading strategies our estimation framework is highly relevant to economic and political agents operating in financial markets of the upcoming emu accession countries

a re examination of the monetary model of exchange market pressure canada 1963 1988 in re evaluating the performance of the girton and roper 1977 two country monetary model of exchange market pressure emp for canada estimates are provided for an extended specification that allows for unrestricted dynamics results show the hypothesized negative effect of domestic credit growth on emp to be supported throughout the relevance both of the dynamics and of the hypothesized unitary tradeoff between exchange rate and international reserve movements for bank of canada policy is demonstrated for the sequence of fixed and floating exchange rate regimes contained in the 1963 1 1988 1 sample

class and exploitation in general convex cone economies abstract in this paper we examine what appropriate formulations for labor exploitation are in order to explain the emergence of class and exploitation status in capitalist economies given the well known controversy pertaining to plausible formulations for labor exploitation in joint production economies we propose an axiom axiom for labor exploitation le which every appropriate formulation of labor exploitation should satisfy using this axiom the necessary and sufficient condition for plausible formulations of labor exploitation is characterized to verify class exploitation correspondence principle cecp roemer 1982 according to this cecp no longer holds in general convex cone economies if the well known formulations of labor exploitation such as morishima 1974 and roemer 1982 chapter 5 are applied therefore we propose two new definitions of labor exploitation each of which verifies cecp

taylor rules and the canadian us equilibrium exchange rate abstract this paper identifies the canadian us equilibrium exchange rate based on a simple structural model of the real exchange rate in which monetary policy follows a taylor rule interest rate reaction function the exchange rate is explained by relative output and inflation as observable variables and by unobserved equilibrium rates as well as unobserved transitory components in output and the exchange rate using canadian data over 1974 2009 we jointly estimate the unobserved components and the structural parameters using the kalman filter and bayesian technique we find that canada s equilibrium exchange rate evolves smoothly and follows a trend depreciation the transitory component is found to be very persistent but much more volatile than the equilibrium rate resulting in few but prolonged periods of currency misalignments

rigidity of social systems the tendency for the members of a corporation or government to be resistant to change is explored in a model that encompasses two endemic features of such systems first the social system is modeled as a hierarchy and implicit within it is a selection process that determines who advances to higher levels second an agent s behavior is partially determined by imitating those who have risen in the ranks a behavioral norm of being rigid is found to be more prevalent and robust than one of being flexible a more volatile environment may also induce agents to be more resistant to change admirandi sed imitandi to be admired but not imitated st augustine

decentralization and the coordination problem abstract this paper addresses the relationship between the degree of decentralization in a population and the probability of coordinating on an efficient outcome rather than the risk dominant outcome in a coordination game the model here extends the literature on evolutionary games by supposing that players interact in groups but that occasionally they may change groups the main innovation is the group changing assumption which allows players to vote with their feet in contrast to most of the recent literature e g kandori et al 1993 in which the risk dominant equilibrium is selected in the long run the model here predicts convergence to the efficient equilibrium if interaction is decentralized enough furthermore it is shown how the model can be applied to the problem of product standardization

a progress report on marxian economic theory on the controversies in exploitation theory since okishio 1963 this report explores the development of exploitation theory in mathematical marxian economics by reviewing the main controversies surrounding the proper definition of exploitation since the contribution of okishio the report first examines the debates on the fundamental marxian theorem and class exploitation correspondence principle developed mainly in the 1970s and 1980s followed by the property relation theory of exploitation by roemer then the more recent exploitation theory proposed by vrousalis and wright is introduced finally the report introduces and comments on recent axiomatic studies of exploitation by focusing on the work of veneziani and yoshihara

the dynamics of inequalities and unequal exchange of labor in intertemporal linear economies abstract introducing a concept of fairness of economic allocations namely exploitation as the unequal exchange of labor henceforth ue exploitation by generalizing roemer s 1981 1982a seminal models this paper aims to answer the following two questions in the context of an intertemporal economy with linear technology how is income and wealth inequality related or unrelated to the existence and persistence of ue exploitation what are the mechanisms driving the persistent existence of ue exploitation in growing economies agents are ue exploited resp exploiters if the amount of labor that they contribute to the economy is bigger resp smaller than the amount of labor received by them via their income it is proved first that ue exploitation is monotonically correlated to functional income inequality second it is shown that unless agents discount the future asset inequalities are necessary but not sufficient for the persistence of ue exploitation and capital accumulation leading to the disappearance of ue exploitation cannot be ruled out in equilibrium third it is shown that regardless of whether agents discount the future labor saving technical progress may yield sustained growth with persistent ue exploitation by keeping labor abundant relative to capital which restrains wages from rising unlike in models with differentiable production functions this mechanism does not rely on changes in the marginal productivity of inputs and it is entirely driven by the interaction between innovation and labor markets