changing inequality in markets for workplace amenities among u s industries where earnings rose relatively from 1979 1995 injury rates declined relatively obversely during the 1960s narrowing interindustry wage differentials were associated with an increase in the relative risk of injury in high wage industries evidence from the nlsy suggests similar results among full time workers between 1988 and 1996 between 1973 and 1991 the disamenity of evening night work was increasingly borne by low wage male workers changing earnings inequality has understated changing inequality in the returns to work assuming skill neutral changes in the cost of reducing these disamenities estimates of the implied income elasticities of demand for amenities are well above unity

unemployment risk and precautionary wealth evidence from households balance sheets this paper examines precautionary behavior by relating job loss risk to household net worth we use existing best practice and some new strategies to deal with some problematic issues inherent in this literature regarding proxying uncertainty instrumentation and incorporating theoretical restrictions we do not find precautionary variation in the wealth holdings of households with low permanent income but do find precautionary effects for moderate and higher income households when the dependent variable is total net worth these findings are robust to several alternative specifications but we do not find precautionary responses in subaggregates of wealth that exclude home equity

wealth accumulation over the life cycle and precautionary savings this article constructs and simulates a life cycle model of wealth accumulation and estimates the parameters of the utility function the rate of time preference and the coefficient of risk aversion by matching the simulated median wealth profiles with those observed in the panel study of income dynamics and in the survey of consumer finances the estimates imply a low degree of patience and a high degree of risk aversion the results are used to study the importance of precautionary savings in explaining wealth accumulation they imply that wealth accumulation is driven mostly by precautionary motives at the beginning of the life cycle whereas savings for retirement purposes become significant only closer to retirement

estimating dynamic demand for cigarettes using panel data the effects of bootlegging taxation and advertising reconsidered abstracct a dynamic demand for cigarette consumption is estimated using pooled data of 46 states over the period 1963 to 1980 a price elasticity of 0 2 and an insignificant income elasticity is found using pooled estimation techniques the bootlegging effect is modeled explicitly using neighboring price the effect is found to be significant two major policy issues are analyzed in light of these new estimates 1 cigarette taxation is found to be an effective tool for generating revenues even though there may be spillover effects to neighboring states where bootlegging is significant 2 the effects of the fairness doctrine act and the advertising ban on cigarette consumption are re examined we find mild support for the effectiveness of subsidized anti smoking messages in reducing cigarette consumption and no support for the thesis that the ban on advertising helps to increase per capita consumption

optimal policy and the risk properties of human capital reconsidered abstract this paper considers how optimal education and tax policy depends on the risk properties of human capital a key feature of human capital investments is whether they increase or decrease wage risk in a benchmark model it is shown that this feature alone determines whether a constrained optimal allocation should be characterized by a positive or a negative education premium in the same model a positive intertemporal wedge is optimal the robustness of these results is explored in two generalizations nonobservability of education and nonobservability of consumption finally policies that implement the constrained efficient allocations are considered

ricardo s international trade theory beyond the comparative cost example that the labour embodied in the export goods given in exchange for one unit of the imported good is less than the labour which the country would have to utilise if it itself were to produce one unit of the imported good there is no question that this ricardian model based on the example of england and portugal trading cloth for wine in chapter 7 of ricardo s principles of political economy and taxation 1951a is an excellent pedagogical device to illustrate the role of compara tive advantage in determining a country s trade pattern and the resulting gains from trade ricardo showed that trade enhances a country s welfare even though it may be more efficient than its trading partner in producing each of its commodities as long as its relative productivity advantage differs between them the principle of comparative advantage

labor supply under wage uncertainty abstract we consider an agent in an atemporal setting facing an increase in the uncertainty of her uncertain wage more labor is supplied given small initial wage uncertainty by a person with a ces utility function with an elasticity greater than unity we relate this result to an extended measure of decreasing relative risk aversion a cobb douglas person makes no change in her labor supply in response to increased wage uncertainty

precautionary savings a panel study theoretical literature shows that income uncertainty boosts saving yet empirical work is incomplete i test for the precautionary motive for saving using panel data knowing this motive s size is important for gauging the responsiveness of saving to government programs that reduce uncertainty and for comparison to other motives such as bequests most empirical studies of precautionary saving use either aggregate time series or cross sectional data which cannot capture the effects of individual income uncertainty i derive measures of total permanent and transitory income uncertainty from panel data the national longitudinal survey and find a strong precautionary motive a doubling of uncertainty increases the ratio of wealth to permanent income by 29

investments in human capital wage uncertainty and public policy abstract the importance of risk characteristics of human capital for the design of tax and education policy is explored wages are uncertain and education while increasing the expected wage may increase or decrease wage variance the government has strong reasons to encourage human capital formation in the latter case partly due to the insurance effect of human capital and partly due to the way the individuals under a plausible restriction on prudence respond to changes in risk the analysis is illustrated using two models of education one where education helps the individuals make better occupational choices and a standard risk augmented becker type model

low pay dynamics and transition probabilities this paper models low pay transitions in britain using a bivariate probit model with endogenous selection to address the initial conditions problem and parental variables as instruments the exogeneity of the initial state is strongly rejected and results in considerable overstatement of the effects of explanatory factors the probability of being low paid depends strongly on low pay in the previous year restricting attention to those who remain employees results in an overstatement of the probability of the low paid moving up the earnings distribution but is not found to have much effect on the estimated effects of explanatory variables

precautionary behavior migrant networks and household consumption decisions an empirical analysis using household panel data from rural china abstract we develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk 10 of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive and this increases to 15 for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line we next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases

precautionary saving motives an assessment from uk time series of cross sections this paper gauges the strength of precautionary saving motives by estimating the coefficient of prudence from the u k family expenditure survey data set a time series of cross sections the instrumental variables estimates reveal that greater uncertainty systematically leads to larger current savings most of these impacts are large enough to be statistically consistent with widely accepted beliefs about attitudes towards risk so that precautionary saving behavior cannot be refuted moreover the households which are less likely to face liquidity constraints or to share risks are more sensitive to uncertainty finally the households for which the head works in the manufacturing industry are more inclined to self insure against uncertainty copyright 1996 by royal economic society

taxation or regulation looking for a good anti smoking policy abstract this paper investigates the relative ability of two anti smoking policies taxes and regulation in inducing reductions in cigarette consumption and in providing incentives to stop smoking or not to start to our results based on canadian data show that cigarette demand responds to taxes elasticity of 0 28 but not to regulation while the converse is true for the proportion of smokers in the population

retrospectives on the genius behind david ricardo s 1817 formulation of comparative advantage last year marked the 200th anniversary of ricardo s famous four numbers paragraph on comparative advantage which is one of the oldest analytical results in economics following the lead of james mill 1821 these four numbers have been interpreted as unit labor coefficients this interpretation has provided the basis for the development of the ricardian model from john stuart mill 1852 to eaton and kortum 2002 however if we accept the labor unit interpretation of these numbers ricardo s exposition in his 1817 principles of political economy and taxation makes little logical sense building on sraffa s 1930 interpretation of ricardo s numbers as labor embodied in trade our discussion reveals the amazing simplicity and generality of ricardo s comparative advantage formulation and gains from trade logic

redistributive taxation in a simple perfect foresight model abstract we investigate the redistributive potential of capital taxation in an intertemporal maximizing model of capital formation first even unanticipated redistributive capital taxation is severely limited in its effectiveness since it depresses wages second under any convergent redistributive tax policy which maximizes a paretian social objective the capital income tax will converge to zero independent of the factor supply elasticities these results are independent of workers holdings of capital

stated and revealed heterogeneous risk preferences in educational choice abstract we develop a structural microeconometric model of educational choice with unobserved heterogeneity in risk aversion and estimate the model parameters using panel survey data we assess the credibility of the model by linking the estimated structural parameters of risk aversion to the self reported willingness to take risks which is directly elicited in the survey the risk aversion parameters revealed from educational choices decrease with the willingness to take risks stated by the survey respondents this indicates consistency between stated and revealed risk preferences we suggest that this method could be applied more generally to support or reject the joint validity of structural models and survey measures of preferences

education and optimal dynamic taxation the role of income contingent student loans we study the optimal design of integrated education finance and tax systems the distribution of wages is endogenously determined by the costly education decisions of heterogeneous individuals before labor market entry consistent with empirical evidence this human capital investment decision is risky we find that an integrated education and tax system in which the government provides education loans to young individuals coupled with income contingent repayment can always be designed in a pareto optimal way we present a simple empirically driven application of the framework to us data in which individuals make a college entry decision we find the optimal repayment schemes for college loans can be well approximated by a schedule that is linearly increasing in income up to a threshold and constant afterwards so although the full optimum could lead to complicated non linear schedules in theory very simple instruments can replicate it fairly well the welfare gains from income contingent repayment are significant

optimal taxation of risky human capital in a two period life cycle model with ex ante homogeneous households earnings risk and a general earnings function we derive the optimal linear labor tax rate and optimal linear education subsidies the optimal income tax trades off social insurance against incentives to work education subsidies are not used for social insurance but they are only targeted at offsetting the distortions of the labor tax and internalizing a fiscal externality both optimal education subsidies and tax rates increase if labor and education are more complementary because education subsidies indirectly lower labor tax distortions by stimulating labor supply optimal education subsidies taxes also correct non tax distortions arising from missing insurance markets education subsidies internalize a positive negative fiscal externality if there is underinvestment overinvestment in education because of risk education policy unambiguously allows for more social insurance if education is a risky activity however if education hedges against labor market risk optimal tax rates could be lower than in the case without education subsidies

how would david ricardo have taught the principle of comparative advantage author affiliation andrea maneschi vanderbilt university department of economics nashville tn 37235 usa andrea maneschi vanderbilt edu acknowledgment the present version of this paper has benefitted from the perceptive comments of two anonymous referees for comments and advice on previous versions i am grateful to eric bond mario crucini daniel diatkine roger sandilands bertram schefold and philippe steiner 1 introductionassume that david ricardo s life had extended beyond the age of 51 that he became a professor of political economy in his later years and was invited to lecture on comparative advantage 1 against all odds he displays a remarkable intuition of future developments in economic theory and is able to use the standard tools and graphical techniques found in present day economics textbooks in his lecture ricardo recalls the numerical example contained in his principles of political economy and taxation ricardo 1951b chapter 7 where cloth and wine are traded between england and portugal he reminds his audience that england s exports of cloth embody the labor of 100 men whereas 120 men would be needed to produce its wine imports the corresponding numbers for portugal are 80 for wine exports and 90 for cloth imports england s comparative advantage in cloth is explicitly implied by the numbers 100 and 120 pertaining to its two traded commodities even before ricardo mentions the corresponding numbers for portugal because the amounts of portuguese labor associated with the quantities of wine and cloth actually traded are lower than those of english labor portugal has an absolute advantage in producing both commodities however the fact that 80 120 2this paper aims to present ricardo s illustration of the gains from trade in both algebraic and graphical form using first a linear then a nonlinear model of production section 2 shows how ricardo makes a gradual transition to a complete trade model by quantifying the gains from trade as the amount of labor saved by trade in the case where the two countries transformation curves happen to be linear in section 3 he generalizes his illustration of the gains from trade by using a concave transformation curve in section 4 ricardo proves that the liberalization of trade in wheat raises england s profit rate and reduces rental income and shows these results diagrammatically this effect on profits neglected by contemporary trade textbooks is the second main source of gains from trade section 5 concludes that the resulting representation of the gains from trade does greater justice to ricardo s original trade model than that found in most textbooks 2 the linear ricardian modelafter his painstaking elaboration of diminishing returns to labor leading to the theory of rent in chapter 2 of his principles ricardo would have had little reason to argue that an economy s production possibility frontier is a straight line choosing instead a production structure marked by diminishing returns to labor in agriculture that lead to a concave transformation curve however in this lecture he decides for pedagogical reasons to make a gradual transition to the latter by starting as a temporary working hypothesis with the linear ricardian production model familiar to students of present day textbooks consider the production possibility line be in the left hand quadrant of figure 1 where the horizontal axis measures the quantity of cloth to the left of the origin o and the vertical axis that of wine in the right hand quadrant the horizontal axis measures the workforce in the wine sector lw given a constant labor coefficient in wine production the linear production function oq shows wine output as a function of lw

the true meaning of david ricardo s four magic numbers abstract the four numbers in david ricardo s example of comparative advantage have been traditionally interpreted as unit labor coefficients in the production of wine and cloth in uk and portugal a recent interpretation suggests that they represent instead the labor needed to produce the amounts of wine and cloth actually traded ricardo s four numbers are shown to yield each country s gains from trade by simply subtracting two of the numbers from the other two since the numbers also indicate each country s comparative advantage ricardo established a close connection between comparative advantage and the gains from trade

effect of generic cigarettes on us cigarette demand and smuggling abstract this paper examines the effects of generic cigarettes on overall cigarette demand and smuggling and studies influences of casual and organized smuggling for the united states generic cigarettes lower the price elasticity and diminish the effect of formal smuggling

disability earnings income and consumption using longitudinal data for the period 1968 2005 for a sample of male household heads we determine the prevalence of disability during the working years and examine how the extent of disability affects a range of outcomes including earnings income and consumption we have seven main findings first disability rates are high we divide the disabled along two dimensions based on the persistence and severity of their work limiting condition we estimate that a person reaching age 56 has a 53 percent chance of having been disabled at least once during his working years and a 19 percent chance that he has begun a chronic and severe disability second the economic consequences of disability are frequently profound ten years after disability onset a person with a chronic and severe disability on average experiences a 68 percent decline in earnings a 32 percent decline in after tax income a 22 percent decline in food and housing consumption and a 21 percent decline in food consumption third the various economic consequences differ sharply across disability groups the outcome declines for those with a chronic and severe disability are often more than twice as large as those for the average disabled fourth our findings show the partial and incomplete roles that individual savings family support and social insurance play in reducing the consumption drop that follows disability only about half of this most disabled group reports receiving social security disability insurance or supplemental security income fifth we find a noticeable fall in earnings and income prior to the onset of a reported disability consumption also falls somewhat suggesting that future disability is partially but incompletely predictable in the short run sixth time use and detailed consumption data further indicate that disability is associated with a decline in well being seventh the quantities we have estimated combined with elasticities from the literature allow us to examine the optimality of current compensation for the disabled we find that the current compensation for our most disabled group appears to be lower than is optimal

financing education using optimal redistributive taxation abstract in this article the joint use of an income tax and public provision of education as instruments to achieve the government s distributional objectives is considered individuals differ in innate labour productivity and in aptitude to acquire skills through education actual labour productivity depends on both innate skill and the amount of education received using a generalized version of the mirrlees tax problem that incorporates these features qualitative properties of an optimal tax schedule are investigated

labour income uncertainty taxation and public good provision this article examines optimal nonlinear income taxation commodity taxation and public good provision under income uncertainty in a moral hazard framework uniform commodity taxation and the samuelson rule for public good provision are desirable under similar conditions as in the conventional tax model deviations from these rules is warranted if one can encourage effort by subsidising certain goods and overproviding public goods we also determine a rule for the optimal marginal income tax rate and provide some numerical simulations conditions for the validity of the solution procedure used in this class of models the first order approach are also explored uncertainty is a key component of many important real world decision making processes consider for example an individual s decision to acquire specific skills through education educational investments must be made well before the resolution of uncertainty related to the returns to skill thus the tax system which affects the net returns of different skill levels has a potentially large impact on educational decisions skill attainment and productivity a progressive tax system offers insurance to workers by redistributing income from the lucky to the unlucky other forms of social insurance such as unemployment and health insurance work in a similar manner a well known problem in the design of optimal income tax under uncertainty or any insurance mechanism is asymmetric information between the government and individuals income is partly due to individual effort and partly due to luck but the planner can only observe realised income not effort the optimal redistribution scheme is a balance between providing the workers with adequate incentives to acquire skills and sufficient insurance mirrlees 1974 was the first to examine the design of optimal redistributive income tax under income uncertainty this moral hazard model later used among others by varian 1980 tuomala 1984 and low and maldoom 2004 is an alternative to the more well known adverse selection model of mirrlees 1971 where income dispersion arises from differences in innate skill levels the moral hazard model is perhaps most appealing in the tax context when effort is interpreted as an ex ante decision on educational investment alternatively one can interpret the discussion as a general analysis of social insurance 1 income tax is only one element albeit an important one in the design of optimal government redistributive policy indeed recent optimal tax literature has devoted a lot of attention to the use of other instruments such as commodity taxation minimum

tax arbitrage and labor supply we examine how tax avoidance in the form of trade in well functioning asset markets affects the basic labor supply model we show that tax arbitrage has dramatic implications for positive normative and econometric analysis of how taxes affect work incentives

tax uncertainty and investment a cross country empirical examination i introduction spanning a period of nearly 100 years of economic research a substantial body of literature has developed with the goal of explaining the behavior of investment over time 1 although many of these studies have considered the implications of tax policy for investment in an uncertain world most have also implicitly assumed that the tax policy itself does not contribute to the uncertainty the problem is that tax policy can be very uncertain in many cases 2 and to date we know little about the consequences especially from an empirical standpoint more generally empirical evaluations of uncertainty and investment are very limited compared with the development of theoretical analyses calcagnini and saltari 2000 and the case of tax uncertainty is no exception this article sets out to fill part of the intellectual void by empirically investigating the impact of volatility in effective tax rates on investment in a cross section of countries namely the 15 countries of the european union eu the united states and japan in doing so i first estimate tax rate volatility using an arch specification with data on effective capital tax rates i then provide panel regression results using the system generalized method of moments gmm sys estimator of arellano and bover 1995 see also blundell and bond 1998 which suggest that the volatility of effective tax rates on capital have a significant negative impact on investment per worker in these countries the remainder of the article proceeds as follows section ii briefly reviews the existing literature on tax policy uncertainty and investment as well as existing empirical studies of uncertainty in general and investment section iii develops the empirical model i employ to estimate the relationship between tax volatility and investment section iv then presents an analysis of effective tax rates in the eu countries the united states and japan followed by a discussion of the data and econometric issues in section v and an examination of the effects of tax rate volatility on investment in section vi section vii provides concluding remarks ii theoretical foundations tax policy uncertainty and investment although most of the voluminous literature on tax policy and investment under uncertainty ignores observed randomness in tax policy a recent set of literature has begun to explore these issues in some detail mostly through simulation 3 the basic premise underlying these studies is that because output price uncertainty tends to retard investment pindyck 1988 4 tax uncertainty might be expected to harm investment as well hassett and metcalf 1999 further credence to a negative relationship between tax uncertainty and investment is given by the business community s mantra that they cannot make plans if they don t have confidence in the tax structure bizer and judd 1989 223 these simulation studies however demonstrate that the impact of tax uncertainty depends crucially on the source and nature of the uncertainty contrary perhaps to conventional wisdom in some cases increased uncertainty can be shown to have positive effects on investment growth or welfare bizer and judd 1989 simulate the economic effects of introducing random tax policy in a dynamic general equilibrium model they find that if random tax rates or credits are serially correlated the target capital stock falls when taxes are high and rises when taxes are low their more interesting case considers independently and identically distributed random tax shocks in this case the authors find that randomness in investment tax credits generates large fluctuations in investment which have the effect of reducing both utility and production because both are concave functions as well revenue 5 they find that variance in future tax rates however is not important for long term investments and in fact raises nontrivial mounts of revenue at a welfare cost that is never more than the cost associated with raising an equivalent amount of revenue with a permanent increase in a deterministic tax rate

growth effects of shifting from a graduated rate tax system to a flat tax i introduction recently the debate concerning fundamental u s tax reform has led to a number of proposals that involve a shift toward a consumption based system 1 one such proposal is the so called flat tax of hall and rabushka 1995 the flat tax would apply a single tax rate to all labor income above a given threshold and to all capital income after fully expensing investment expenditures hall and rabushka 1995 argue that the adoption of their proposal would provide an enormous boost to the u s economy by dramatically improving incentives to engage in productive activities and would save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in compliance and administration costs 2 in this article we develop a quantitative general equilibrium model to assess the growth effects of adopting a flat tax plan similar to the one proposed by hall and rabushka 1995 the model captures many of the features of the current u s tax code such as graduated personal tax rates a standard personal deduction separate tax rates applied to personal and business income double taxation of business income and differential tax treatment of physical and human capital under appropriate parameter settings the model can exhibit either endogenous or exogenous long run growth our choice of functional forms facilitates a closed form solution to the model this allows us to characterize explicitly the economy s transition path following the reform a central issue in the debate over fundamental tax reform is the effect that such a reform would have on economic growth the present analysis builds on the work of stokey and rebelo 1995 who use an endogenous growth framework to identify the key model features and parameters that are important for determining the quantitative impacts of distortionary taxes on long run growth 3 our study differs from theirs and the bulk of the dynamic tax literature in one fundamental respect here we evaluate the growth effects of shifting from a graduatedrate tax system to a flat rate system stokey and rebelo 1995 consider only flat rate systems in which the marginal tax rate is equal to the average tax rate we approximate the graduated rate tax system in the u s economy by an empirical tax rate function that allows the personal tax rate to depend positively on household taxable income in equilibrium household decisions are influenced by both the level and slope of the tax schedule to implement the flat tax reform we shift the parameters of the tax rate function to flatten the marginal tax schedule while maintaining revenue neutrality our methodology treats the hall rabushka proposal as one that in effect moves a representative household from one tax rate schedule to another we view this setup as a reasonable approximation to gauge the growth effects of tax reform at the macro level a more elaborate setup would of course allow for household heterogeneity at a given point in time in this regard we note that caucutt et al 2003 have recently examined the growth effects of graduated rate taxes in a two period overlapping generations model that includes both skilled and unskilled agents in their model a flatter tax schedule increases the fraction of skilled agents in the economy the share of total output devoted to education rises accordingly and the economy s long run growth rate is observed to increase the quantitative implications of their model are difficult to compare to ours however because their two period framework implies a very long time horizon between household decisions about 30 years moreover their model abstracts from many of the features of the u s tax code that we include here in addition to examining the consequences of flattening the marginal tax schedule we investigate the growth effects attributable to other parts of the flat tax proposal such as allowing full investment expensing eliminating the double taxation of business income and increasing the standard personal deduction

consumption puzzles and precautionary savings abstract when marginal utility is convex agents accumulate savings as a precautionary measure against labor income eventualities this paper shows that precautionary savings can go a long way in making the excess growth excess smoothness and excess sensitivity features of consumption consistent with the stochastic processes of labor income observed in the u s at the microeconomic level

what accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among u s households even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics saving and wealth vary considerably life cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates risk tolerance exposure to uncertainty relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages and income replacement rates these factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile using the panel study of income dynamics and the consumer expenditure survey we find little support for these implications the data are instead consistent with rule of thumb mental accounting or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation jel di d91 e21

optimal wage and income taxation with wage uncertainty optimal taxation in a two period model with human capital investment and second period wage uncertainty is analyzed a proportional tax on wages dominates lump sum taxation and the socially optimal level of human capital exceeds that which individuals choose a tax on interest income may raise welfare by encouraging investment in human capital the interest income tax reduces the difference between returns to physical and human capital from individuals inability to reduce human capital risk through diversification a positive interest income tax rate may therefore be optimal even with an optimal wage tax by encouraging m ore investment in human capital copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

taxation and product quality new evidence from generic cigarettes in this journal barzel 1976 theorized that per unit taxes should increase the average quality of a product whereas ad valorem taxes may either lower product quality or leave it unaffected there are several different ways to present the logic behind this theory barzel stresses that per unit taxes do not tax all attributes of a commodity causing a substitution from the taxed attributes quantity into the others quality 1 another way is to draw an analogy to the alchian and allen 1964 theorem where the addition of a fixed fee causes a decrease in the relative price of the higher quality version of the product 2 because ad valorem taxes add the same percentage to the prices of both the highand low quality versions of the product they do not distort relative prices thus ad valorem taxes should

social background education and inequality the role parents education plays for the educational achievements of children is a source of unequal opportunities through this channel the number of educated affects the options of future cohorts creating a social multiplier effect making improvements in education self reinforcing policies to compensate for inequalities of opportunities public education or transfers have very different implications transfers not only reduce inequality on impact but also reduce social mobility while public education even if a perfect substitute to private education works in the opposite direction social impediments to education are similar to a market imperfection and publicly provided education may lead to a pareto improvement jel d3 i2 h2 h4

how prudent are consumers using data from the consumer expenditure survey this paper presents a simple test that provides an explicit estimate of the parameter in the utility function that reflects the strength of the precautionary saving motive the coefficient of relative prudence the test yields a fairly precise estimate of a small precautionary motive in fact the estimate is too small to be consistent with widely accepted beliefs about risk aversion the presence of liquidity constrained households does not appear to explain this finding and there is some evidence that self selection of households into risky environments also cannot explain the results

contemporary political economy d a hibbs jr and h fassbender eds north holland publishing company amsterdam 1981 pp x 282 dfl 80

money and politics in a small open economy a time series analysis indicates monetary growth and the gallup poll in canada are systematically related at electoral cycle periodicities 5 to 20 quarters under flexible exchange rates and demonstrates the absence of an electoral component in canadian monetary growth under fixed rates these results confirm empirically a widely accepted extension of the mundell fleming argument that monetary policy is effective only under flexible rates which to my knowledge has not before been directly investigated international constraints on the small open economy under fixed rates lead to the abandonment of monetary policy as an active instrument in electoral politics

uncertainty and consumer durables adjustment we characterize infrequent durables stock adjustment by consumers who also derive utility from non durable consumption flows in the presence of idiosyncratic income uncertainty the data we analyse include subjective future income uncertainty measures which we use as instruments in the estimation of relevant parameters of heterogeneous consumers dynamic adjustment problems the data feature two conceptually distinct sources of variation cross sectional heterogeneity of the sampled households dynamic problems and history dependent heterogeneity in their situation during the observation period we note that the latter should affect the likelihood but not the size of stock adjustment decisions and find broad support for theoretical predictions in formal selection controlled regressions based on this insight

have filipino households become less prudent abstract throughout the 2000s the average household saving rate in the philippines declined sharply this article explains why households consumption growth has been higher than income growth during this period tracing cohorts shows that saving declined across all demographic groups a test that provides the strength of the precautionary saving motive yields a plausible explanation that households have become financially constrained and less prudent in recent years this article argues that these patterns are best explained by the extended coverage of the social security system particularly to informal sector employees during the 1990s in the philippines

precautionary saving in the small and in the large the theory of precautionary saving is shown to be isomorphic to the arrow pratt theory of risk aversion making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving and more generally to the theory of optimal choice under risk in particular a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive analogous to the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving and to give a new interpretation of the dreze modigliani substitution effect copyright 1990 by the econometric society

forced to be rich returns to compulsory schooling in britain do students benefit from compulsory schooling in an important article oreopoulos 2006 studied the 1947 british compulsory schooling law change and found large returns to schooling of about 15 using the general household survey ghs re analysing this dataset we find much smaller returns of about 3 on average with no evidence of any positive return for women and a return for men of 4 7 additionally we utilise the new earnings survey panel data set nespd that has earnings information superior to that in the ghs and find similar estimates zero returns for women and returns of 3 to 4 for men

the effect of individual uncertainty on the specificity of human capital empirical evidence from career developments in professional soccer this study looks at careers in professional soccer to investigate the determinants of human capital hc specificity inspired by labour market research we formulate three hypotheses on how uncertainty about the usefulness of individuals more productive specific skills affects their investment in more flexible general skills the empirical analysis is based on unique panel data on school grades soccer evaluations and sociodemographic characteristics of 90 elite players from the youth academy of a german bundesliga club we find that senior and long serving players who are comparably certain that their soccer specific capital will be sufficient to pursue a lucrative professional career invest less in general hc at school expected soccer performance in contrast has a counterintuitive positive effect our results expand knowledge on the factors influencing hc specificity from the macro to the subject level and highlight practical implications for institutions that train gifted individuals