insecure property rights and government ownership of firms we develop a theory of the ownership of firms in an environment without secure property rights against state encroachment private ownership leads to excessive revenue hiding and state ownership i e national government ownership fails to provide incentives for managers and local governments in a credible way because local government ownership integrates local government activities and business activities local government may better serve the interests of the national government and thus local government ownership may credibly limit state predation increase local public goods provision and reduce costly revenue hiding we use our theory to interpret the relative success of local government owned firms during china s transition to a market economy

does money matter in canada evidence from a vector error correction model this paper investigates the statistical properties of a set of canadian and u s economic time series and uses the data to address the question of the importance of monetary variables in canadian business cycle fluctuations the individual time series are found to contain unit roots but the data reveal the existence of several economically meaningful cointegrating vectors a multivariate vector error correction model is estimated and canadian velocity which appears as an error correction term is significant in the canadian output equation this supports the contention that monetary variables have predictive content for real output copyright 1989 by mit press

the international crash of october 1987 causality tests the paper analyzes lead lag relationships for six major stock market indexes new york s p 500 tokyo nikkei london ft 30 hong kong hang seng singapore straits times and australia all ordinaries for time periods before during and after the october 1987 market crash unidirectional and bidirectional causality tests are conducted by means of the granger methodology practically no lead lag relationships are found for the pre crash and post crash periods however important feedback relationships and unidirectional causality are detected for the month of the crash there is also an increase in contemporaneous causality during and after the month of the crash in general our findings suggest that the october 1987 market crash probably was an international crisis of the equity markets and that it might have begun simultaneously in all the national stock markets

international stock market linkages evidence from the pre and post october 1987 period abstract this paper uses recent developments in the theory of cointegration to provide new methods of testing the linkage and dynamic interactions among stock market movements our findings are in sharp contrast with previous research which discovered strong interdependence among national stock markets prior to october 1987 for the post october 1987 period however our results show that the degree of international co movements among stock price indices has increased substantially with the nikkei index the only exception furthermore the us stock market is found to have a considerable impact on the french german and uk markets in the post crash period we also find the response of the french german and uk markets to us stock market innovations to be consistent with the view of cross border informationally efficient stock markets finally we find the japanese equity market performance to have no links with both the us stock market and the stock markets in france germany and uk during the pre and post october crash period

estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for u s households with input output analysis part 2 simulation abstract this is the second part of a two part paper that integrates economic and industrial ecology methods to estimate the indirect rebound effect from residential energy efficiency investments we apply the model developed in part one to simulate the indirect rebound given an estimate of the direct rebound using a 2002 environmentally extended input output model and the 2004 consumer expenditure survey in 2002 for the u s we find an indirect rebound of 5 15 in primary energy and co 2 e emissions assuming a 10 direct rebound depending on the fuel saved with efficiency and household income the indirect rebound can be as high as 30 40 in no x or so 2 emissions for efficiency in natural gas services the substitution effect modeled in part one is small in most cases and we discuss appropriate applications for proportional or income elasticity spending assumptions large indirect rebound effects occur as the u s electric grid becomes less carbon intensive in households with large transportation demands or as energy prices increase even in extreme cases there is limited evidence for backfire or a rebound effect greater than 100 enacting pollution taxes or auctioned permits that internalize the externalities of energy use would ensure that rebound effects unambiguously increase consumers welfare

estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for u s households with input output analysis part 1 theoretical framework abstract this is the first part of a two part paper providing an analytical model of the indirect rebound effect given a direct rebound estimate that integrates consumer demand theory with the embodied energy of household spending from environmentally extended input output analysis the second part applies the model developed in part one to simulate the direct and indirect rebound for the average u s household in terms of primary energy co2e nox and so2 emissions and for energy efficiency investments in electricity natural gas or gasoline services part one provides a critical review of the largely independent economic and industrial ecology literatures on the indirect rebound by studying the two goods case and the n goods case we demonstrate that the indirect rebound is bounded by the consumer budget constraint and inversely related to the direct rebound we also compare the common proportional spending and income elasticity spending assumptions with our model of cross price elasticities including both substitution and income effects for the indirect rebound by assuming zero incremental capital costs and the same embodied energy as conventional technologies for efficient appliances we model an upper bound of the indirect rebound future work should also consider the increase in consumer welfare possible through the rebound effect

chinese institutional innovation and privatization from below one of the most distinctive features of china s transition to a market economy has been the role played by rural township and village enterprises tve s in the face of sustained rapid growth of tve s the share of total industrial output produced by state owned enterprises soe s has fallen below half despite steady state sector growth and the absence of significant privatization yet most tve s are collectives a form of publicly owned enterprise this feature seems to make them unique in no other transitional economy has public ownership played such a dynamic role china presents the unusual picture of an economy that has made a transition to a primarily market economy but in which publicly owned enterprises still produce the bulk of manufacturing output surprisingly also the collective ownership form does not have a precise legal definition in china leading to some uncertainty about ultimate property rights martin weitzman and chenggang xu 1993 point out that public ownership with vaguely defined ownership ought to represent a recipe for economic disaster to them tve success suggests instead advantages to the internal institutional form of tve s which are seen to facilitate cooperation through implicit contracts among community members locked into an ongoing relationship victor nee 1992 advances a similar interpretation arguing that long time community residents create forms of income sharing that may be optimal in the absence of an independent legal system an alternative perhaps complementary view is presented here the success of tve s i argue is due largely to a set of external conditions to which tve s are an effective adaptation tve s are responses to one of the most distinctive characteristics of the chinese transition as a whole the early creation of product markets which exist for a prolonged period without well developed markets for factors of production or assets tve s are a flexible and effective but basically ordinary adaptation to this environment

a review of recent multi region input output models used for consumption based emission and resource accounting abstract the interest in consumption based emission and resource accounting has grown significantly many studies juxtapose consumer emissions carbon footprint and producer territorial emissions of greenhouse gases in order to demonstrate the effects of trade on the national emission budget to this end a respectable number of studies have been undertaken worldwide in order to estimate emissions embedded in international trade of numerous countries and world regions input output approaches and increasingly multi region input output mrio models are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete carbon footprint estimates at the national and supra national level with increasing processing capabilities of computers and a wider availability of economic accounts environmental accounts and trade data such models are now being implemented on a wide scale after a brief overview of salient single region input output studies i provide an in depth review of the most recent multi region input output models used for the purpose of consumption based environmental accounting the main methodological features and important results are described for around twenty studies covering the years 2007 to 2009 this is followed by a detailed review of studies dealing with uncertainty in mrio analysis an area which has not received a lot of attention so far i conclude that further research is mainly needed in two areas a improvements in data availability and quality and b improvements in the accuracy of mrio modelling

on the past and future of china s township and village owned enterprises abstract this paper proposes an explanation of the historical success of industrial enterprises owned by township and village governments in china i argue that conditions peculiar to china s prereform economy fostered the growth of a skilled workforce and high savings created unusual market niches and encouraged entrepreneurial undertakings by local political elites especially in areas adjacent to certain cities i then discuss the allocative and technical efficiency of local public enterprises in china from a theoretical standpoint and review some relevant econometric findings finally i consider proposals for reform of town and village enterprise tve ownership and discuss the possible advantages of cooperative forms

correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets the short run interdependence of prices and price volatility across three major international stock markets is studied daily opening and closing prices of major stock indexes for the tokyo london and new york stock markets are examined the analysis utilizes the autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic arch family of statistical models to explore these pricing relationships evidence of price volatility spillovers from new york to tokyo london to tokyo and new york to london is observed but no price volatility spillover effects in other directions are found for the pre october 1987 period article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations are business cycles mainly the result of permanent shocks to productivity this paper uses a long run restriction implied by a large class of real business cycle models identifying permanent productivity shocks as shocks to the common stochastic trend in output consumption and investment to provide new evidence on this question econometric tests indicate that this common stochastic trend cointegration implication is consistent with postwar u s data however in systems with nominal variables the estimates of this common stochastic trend indicate that permanent productivity shocks typically explain less than half of the business cycle variability in output consumption and investment copyright 1991 by american economic association

economic determinants of comovement across international stock markets the example of taiwan and its key trading partners this study uses the multinomial logit model in which comovements are categorized into three outcomes namely i negative comovements ii positive comovements and iii no comovements with the purpose of the empirical analysis being to investigate the economic determinants that affect the comovement relationships in the stock markets for taiwan and four major trading partners mainland china united states japan and hong kong using daily data covering the period from 1994 to 2004 the period under study is further divided into three sub periods i e the period before the asian financial crisis that during the asian financial crisis and that after the asian financial crisis in order to determine whether the factors influencing the comovements in the stock market returns of taiwan and its trading partners actually change over time in addition this study differs from earlier studies that only emphasized the analysis of statistical significance in that it attaches importanace to analysing both the s

international spillover and rebound effects from increased energy efficiency in germany the pollution energy leakage literature raises the concern that policies implemented in one country such as a carbon tax or tight energy restrictions might simply result in the reallocation of energy use to other countries this paper addresses these concerns in the context of policies to increase energy efficiency rather than direct action to reduce energy use using a global cge simulation model we extend the analyses of economy wide rebound from the national focus of previous studies to incorporate international spill over effects from trade in goods and services our focus is to investigate whether these effects have the potential to increase or reduce the overall global rebound of local energy efficiency improvements in the case we consider increased energy efficiency in german production generates changes in comparative advantage that produce negative leakage effects thereby actually rendering global rebound less than national rebound

international transmission of stock market movements this paper investigates the international transmission mechanism of stock market movements by estimating a nine market vector autoregression var system using simulated responses of the estimated var system we i locate all the main channels of interactions among national stock markets and ii trace out the dynamic responses of one market to innovations in another generally speaking a substantial amount of multi lateral interaction is detected among national stock markets innovations in the u s are rapidly transmitted to other markets in a clearly recognizable fashion whereas no single foreign market can significantly explain the u s market movements also the dynamic response pattern is found to be generally consistent with the notion of informationally efficient international stock markets

common stochastic trends in european stock markets the objective of the paper is to investigate whether price indices of different european stock markets display a common long run trending behaviour using cointegration analysis we provide empirical evidence of common stochastic trends among five important european stock markets over the period 1975 1991

who rebounds most estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for different uk socioeconomic groups this study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from various types of energy efficiency improvement and behavioural change by uk households and explores how these effects vary with total expenditure the methodology is based upon estimates of the expenditure elasticity and ghg intensity of 16 categories of goods and services and allows for the capital cost and embodied emissions of the energy efficiency measures themselves the study finds that rebound effects in ghg terms are modest 0 32 for measures affecting domestic energy use larger 25 65 for measures affecting vehicle fuel use and very large 66 106 for measures that reduce food waste furthermore measures undertaken by low income households are associated with the largest rebound effects with direct emissions forming a larger proportion of the total rebound effect for those households measures that are subsidised or affect highly taxed energy commodities may be less effective in reducing aggregate emissions these findings highlight the importance of allowing for rebound effects within policy appraisals as well as reinforcing the case for economy wide carbon pricing

economy wide rebound effects for non energetic raw materials material efficiency is increasingly being seen as a means to save resources and achieve greater security of supply whether these aims can be achieved to the desired extent depends among other things on the presence of rebound effects this article estimates economy wide rebound effects for non energetic raw materials in the context of a set of material efficiency projects carried out in germany under the assumption that the efficiency technologies developed in these projects are scaled up to the national level input output analysis is used to calculate changed material requirements and corresponding rebound effects reduced material flows in monetary terms together with economic data are aggregated to an economy wide impulse which can cause re increases in the demand for the considered raw materials depending on the project specific framework conditions and subject to the modeling assumptions our estimates suggest that individual materials display a wide range of rebound effects ranging from close to zero to low double digit percentages these results point towards the conclusion that economy wide rebound effects do not make these efficiency measures obsolete however they also suggest that rebound effects should not be ignored in the assessment of the role of efficiency in future resource consumption

interdependencies among the nordic and u s stock markets using the concept of granger causality interdependencies among the stock market indices for four nordic countries and the u s are examined the vector autoregressive model results indicate that the u s market affected only the danish but not the norwegian finnish or swedish markets the swedish market was causally prior to both the norwegian and finnish markets the norwegian danish and finnish markets did not granger cause any other market the results indicate that the nordic stock markets are less than fully integrated

why do entrepreneurs enter politics evidence from china this article examines the determinants of the entrepreneur s political participation by employing a unique matched firm institution data set from china we find that the likelihood of an entrepreneur s participation can be explained by the underdevelopment of markets and market supporting institutions according to our estimates the probability of entering politics decreases by 8 20 from the mean when the institutional indices improve by one standard deviation our findings support the view that the institutional environment shapes the private entrepreneur s motivation to participate in politics they also provide an example of how private entrepreneurs respond to state market failure in developing and transition countries jel g1 h00 o10 p2 p3

public versus private ownership of firms evidence from rural china why are many of china s successful rural enterprises publically owned by local communities using a set of provincial data we find that the share of community public firms township village enterprises or tves relative to private enterprises is higher where the central government s influence is greater the community government s power is stronger and the level of market development is lower we also find that tves help achieve the community government s goals of increasing government revenue rural nonfarm employment and rural income however tves do not increase rural income given the levels of nonfarm employment and local public goods provision indicating possible inefficiency as compared with private enterprises

the proper scope of government theory and an application to prisons when should a government provide a service in house and when should it contract out provision we develop a model in which the provider can invest in improving the quality of service or reducing cost if contracts are incomplete the private provider has a stronger incentive to engage in both quality improvement and cost reduction than a government employee has however the private contractor s incentive to engage in cost reduction is typically too strong because he ignores the adverse effect on noncontractible quality the model is applied to understanding the costs and benefits of prison privatization

refinancing and decentralization evidence from china abstract decentralization can complement market liberalization by strengthening incentives of agents to respond to market signals however in china banks centralized lending authority following financial reforms in the mid 1990s we present a new theory of financial decentralization in which centralization provides a credible commitment not to refinance bad projects by reducing available information using data from chinese rural financial institutions we empirically assess the determinants of decentralization and the likelihood of collateral seizure strongly confirming the predictions of the refinancing model we conclude that weak institutional environments may limit the efficiency of financial intermediation despite financial market liberalization

a new approach to measuring financial contagion this article proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets our measure of contagion captures the coincidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions we characterize the extent of contagion its economic significance and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s we find that contagion is predictable and depends on regional interest rates exchange rate changes and conditional stock return volatility evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed

the 2007 2009 financial crisis changing market dynamics and the impact of credit supply and aggregate demand sensitivity this article singles out the determinants of changes in us firms systematic risk and idiosyncratic return induced by the 2007 2009 financial crisis after establishing that systematic risk changes during the crisis the results show that higher operational and financial leverage coincide with an increase in systematic risk while high cash availability is associated with a decrease in systematic risk the crisis induced idiosyncratic return worsens with increasing financial leverage higher sensitivity to aggregate demand shocks and banking sector problems and lower operational leverage additional results show that the aforementioned variables have economically large effects on firm performance during the crisis

unravelling financial market linkages during crises an empirical model of multiple asset classes across countries is formulated in a latent factor framework a special feature of the model is that financial market linkages during periods of financial crises including spillover and contagion effects are formally specified the model also captures a range of common factors including global shocks country and market shocks and idiosyncratic shocks the framework is applied to modelling linkages between currency and equity markets during the east asian financial crisis of 1997 98 the results provide strong evidence that cross market links are important spillovers have a relatively larger effect on volatility than contagion but both are statistically significant

cointegration and market efficiency abstract recently many economists have asserted that asset prices determined in efficient asset markets cannot be cointegrated we show that there is no general equivalence between the existence of arbitrage opportunities and cointegration or for that matter a lack of cointegration whether asset prices are cointegrated is a function of the relevant model we first show a convenient way to calculate the cointegrating vector based on necessary and sufficient conditions for cointegration we then examine particular cases including exchange rates interest rates and spot and forward exchange rates and asset prices with incoem flows reinvested and not reinvested jel f31

financial control in the transition from classical socialism to a market economy the transition from socialism to capitalism poses severe problems of financial management that have yet to be resolved in principle let alone in practice one unfortunate consequence is continual financial turmoil as socialist economies of the soviet union and eastern europe attempt reform inflation either open or repressed first accompanies and then undermines attempts to decentralize decision making to dampen inflation and prevent economic chaos even reform governments may be provoked to reintervene by seizing the financial assets of enterprises reinstituting price controls or commandeering outputs through state orders and similar devices but why should the transition from central planning to a market economy be inflationary understanding the system of financial control in the preexisting regime of classical socialism is the key to understanding what might go wrong in the transition under classical socialism all the means of production industrial and agricultural are state owned output targets input levels wages and prices are all set by a stalinist system of central planning accordingly i shall first identify 1 how domestic fiscal and monetary processes interact with and complement central planning in the classical socialist economy and then discuss 2 why this mechanism for securing domestic financial control and avoiding inflation under classical socialism tends to break down when decentralization begins and central planning is weakened the discussion will then turn to 3 how in a more deliberate transition domestic tax and monetary arrangements might be managed to keep the average price level stable as the market prices of individual goods and services become free to fluctuate after sufficient domestic financial control is secured

a critique of latent variable tests of asset pricing models abstract latent variable tests of asset pricing models make assumptions about the joint distribution of observable returns and unobservable benchmark returns these tests can falsely accept models when a mean variance efficient portfolio other than the benchmark satisfies the distributional assumptions imposed on the benchmark portfolio also because the assumptions are untestable there is no way to discover whether a model is being rejected because the assumptions are false without these assumptions however latent variable tests can be viewed only as tests of distributional hypotheses about mean variance efficient portfolios of unknown composition

fractional cointegration low frequency dynamics and long run purchasing power parity an analysis of the australian dollar over its recent float a relatively new but generalized concept of fractional cointegration is applied to shed some light on the validity of purchasing power parity ppp as a long run equilibrium condition by examining the long run relationship between quarterly consumer price indices and bilateral exchange rates of the australian dollar and seven major oecd trading partners over australia s recent float the paper demonstrates that relaxing the condition that the residual from the cointegration equation must be a i 0 process provides a wide range of cases of parity reversion with processes that are ci 1 d with 0 d 1 findings tend to suggest that while standard tests of cointegration fail to support cointegration between nominal exchange rates domestic and foreign prices and thus the empirical favour for ppp as a long run phenomenon the fractional cointegration analysis permits deviations from equilibrium to follow a fractionally integrated process and hence captures a much wider class of parity or mean reversion

missing carbon reductions exploring rebound and backfire effects in uk households households are expected to play a pivotal role in reducing the uk s greenhouse gas ghg emissions and the uk government is encouraging specific household actions to help meet its targets however due to the rebound effect only a portion of the ghg emission reductions estimated by simple engineering calculations are generally achieved in practice for example replacing short car journeys by walking or cycling reduces consumption of motor fuels but this frees up money that may be spent on for example purchasing extra clothes or flying on vacation alternatively the money may be put into savings since all of these options lead to ghg emissions total ghg savings may be less than anticipated indeed in some instances emissions may increase a phenomenon known as backfire we estimate that the rebound effect for a combination of three abatement actions by uk households is approximately 34 targeting re spending on goods and services with a low ghg intensity reduces this to a minimum of around 12 while re spending on goods and services with a high ghg intensity leads to backfire our study highlights the importance of shifting consumption to lower ghg intensive categories and investing in low carbon investments

a carbon saving multiplier as an alternative to rebound in considering reduced energy supply chain requirements from energy efficiency abstract a growing area of research into rebound effects from increased energy efficiency involves application of demand driven input output models to consider indirect energy consumption effects associated with re spending decisions by households with reduced energy spending requirements however there is often a lack of clarity in applied studies as to how indirect effects involving energy use and or carbon emissions in supply chains of both energy and non energy goods and services have been calculated we propose that more transparency for policymakers may be introduced by replacing consideration of what are often referred to as indirect rebound effects with a simple carbon saving multiplier metric we illustrate using results from a demand driven input output model that tracks supply chain activity at national and or global level we argue that this captures and conveys the same information on quantity adjustments in energy used in supply chain activity but does so in a manner that is more positive transparent understandable and useful for a policy audience this is achieved by focusing here via carbon emissions on the net benefits of changes in different types of energy use at both household and supply chain levels when energy efficiency improves in households

rethinking economy wide rebound measures an unbiased proposal in spite of having been first introduced in the last half of the ninetieth century the debate about the possible rebound effects from energy efficiency improvements is still an open question in the economic literature this paper contributes to the existing research on this issue proposing an unbiased measure for economy wide rebound effects the novelty of this economy wide rebound measure stems from the fact that not only actual energy savings but also potential energy savings are quantified under general equilibrium conditions our findings indicate that the use of engineering savings instead of general equilibrium potential savings downward biases economy wide rebound effects and upward biases backfire effects the discrepancies between the traditional indicator and our proposed measure are analysed in the context of the spanish economy

finance and growth for microenterprises evidence from rural china using a survey dataset of chinese rural households we find that access to external finance is positively associated with the decision to become entrepreneur and the initial investment for microenterprises also we find that use of informal finance especially financing from friends and family is positively associated with sales growth of microenterprises with employees but not of self employed we do not find any significant relationship between the use of formal finance and firm growth our findings underline the importance of finance for entrepreneurship and microenterprise growth and the role of informal finance in the absence of efficient formal financial institutions

impacts of the financial crisis on eurozone sovereign cds spreads abstract we study the variation of sovereign credit default swaps cdss of eurozone countries their persistence and co movements with particular attention given to the impact of the financial crisis specifically using a dual fractional integration model we test the evidence of long memory for cdss of ten eurozone countries our analysis reveals that price discovery processes satisfy the minimum requirements for a weak form of efficiency for sovereign cds markets even during the crisis in contrast we document the spreading out of persistent cds uncertainty among the peripheral economies with its outbreak we provide evidence that cds uncertainty has implications for the pricing of sovereign risk including that of core countries in the crisis period finally we present the potential spillover effects utilizing a dynamic conditional correlation model and show that with the collapse of lehman the probability of a contagion increased across all countries and became more explicit for peripheral economies as the sovereign crisis took on a new dimension

the added value from a general equilibrium analysis of increased efficiency in household energy use this paper investigates the economic impact of a 5 improvement in the uk household energy efficiency focussing specifically on total energy rebound effects the impact is measured through simulations using models that have increasing degrees of endogeneity but are calibrated on a common data set moving from a basic partial equilibrium approach to a fully specified general equilibrium treatment the size of the rebound effect is shown to depend on changes in household income aggregate economic activity and relative prices that can only be captured through a general equilibrium model

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis in recent years there have been a number of attempts to develop a more comprehensive approach to the issue of measuring resource use and or pollution generation embodied in trade flows including contributions that combine input output techniques and ecological footprint analysis in this two part paper we describe how to enumerate the resource and or pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows part 1 and we present a literature review of recent methodological and empirical developments part 2 it is straightforward in principle to extend the basic input output approach to capture international trade flows however in practice problems of data availability and compatibility and of computability of extended input output matrices mean that simplifying assumptions are generally applied but with the implications of these assumptions often not made fully explicit what appears to be absent from previous applications is an account of the analytical method by which ecological footprints should ideally be estimated in an international input output accounting analysis this allows an explicit analysis of the problems that prevent the application of the full method and identification of the most appropriate short cut methods in a transparent way the objective of this paper is to provide such an account

market reforms technological capabilities and the performance of small enterprises in china this paper shows that the domestic and foreign trade liberalization of the chinese economy since the late 1970s has led to much dynamism among small and medium firms such firms have grown at a rapid pace and have increased their share of value added in the chinese economy at the same time they have recorded gains in total factor productivity however after two decades of decontrol the potential for further growth among small and medium industries is limited unless further liberalization is undertaken and government policies pertaining to the allocation of credit levy of taxes and grants of research and other subsidies are applied in a more even handed fashion

transmission of the u s subprime crisis to emerging markets evidence on the decoupling recoupling hypothesis abstract we find that emerging markets appeared to be somewhat insulated from developments in u s financial markets from early 2007 to summer 2008 from that point on however emerging markets responded very strongly to the deteriorating situation in the u s financial system and real economy our regression event study focusing on 15 types of news indicates that a range of financial and real economic news emanating from the us had statistically and economically large impacts on 14 emerging markets and several news events uniformly moved markets policy measures taken in emerging markets to insulate themselves from global financial developments proved inadequate in the face of the credit crunch and decline in international trade that followed the lehman bankruptcy in september 2008

estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock markets we propose a general double tree structured ar garch model for the analysis of global equity index returns the model extends previous approaches by incorporating i several multivariate thresholds in conditional means and volatilities of index returns and ii a richer specification for the impact of lagged foreign us index returns in each threshold we evaluate the out of sample forecasting power of our model for eight major equity indices in comparison to some existing volatility models in the literature we find strong evidence for more than one multivariate threshold more than two regimes in conditional means and variances of global equity index returns such multivariate thresholds are affected by foreign us lagged index returns and yield a higher out of sample predictive power for our tree structured model setting

detrending and the money output link international evidence 1 introduction and background the question of whether there exists an empirical link between nominal money and real output has been subjected to a variety of modern econometric techniques producing conflicting results for example stock and watson 1989 use a vector autoregressive var model that accounts for several important economic variables and find that money exerts a statistically significant effect on real economic activity friedman and kuttner 1992 1993 on the other hand show that using the same specification as stock and watson but extending their sample through the 1980s obviates the money income link friedman and kuttner s results indicate that interest rates are relatively more useful in explaining movements in output thoma 1994 also reports that changes in money do not have a statistically significant impact on output in the united states more recent studies both theoretical and empirical also have shown money to have little or no direct effect on economic cycles rudebusch and svensson 1999 2002 for example conclude that the behavior of money real or nominal has no marginally significant impact on deviations of real output from potential the output gap once past movements in the gap and real rates of interest are accounted for such findings on the basis of what meyer 2001 refers to as the consensus macro model have achieved an influential position among macroeconomists and policymakers 2 other studies challenge the argument that money does not affect real output an early study by christiano and ljungqvist 1988 using a bivariate var model reports the existence of a statistically significant money to output relation in u s data davis and tanner 1997 using monthly u s data extending back to the mid 1800s find that even after interest rate effects are allowed for money remains statistically significant in explaining short run movements in real output using a rolling regression approach swanson 1998 reports a statistically significant relation between money measured as simple sum aggregates and as divisia measures and output even after an interest rate spread variable is added to the model hafer and kutan 1997 considered whether different stationarity properties of the data have influenced reported outcomes since most prior studies assume difference stationarity hafer and kutan demonstrate that estimating var models that include money and interest rate variables under the existence of trend stationarity can dramatically affect the conclusion indeed they find that using a trend stationarity assumption yields the finding that money significantly affects real output movements in the united states a common characteristic of this literature is its focus on the united states there are a few exceptions for example krol and ohanian 1990 apply the stock watson specification to data for canada germany japan and the uk although money actual and detrended significantly affects output in the uk krol and ohanian find no such affect in japan canada and germany they conclude that although detrending the growth rate of u s money affects conclusions about the role of money little is gained from this approach when applied to the other countries another exception to the u s focus is a recent study by hayo 1999 using data from 14 european union eu countries plus canada japan and the united states hayo shows that money output test results are not sensitive to the use of data in levels versus data in differences an obvious question to ask then is whether nominal money is relatively more useful than interest rates in explaining movements in real output across a wider variety of countries that includes industrial and developing economies although the studies of krol and ohanian and hayo represent a broader analysis they too focus on the money output relation in relatively industrialized financially developed countries

turning lights into flights estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for uk households energy efficiency improvements by households lead to rebound effects that offset the potential energy and emissions savings direct rebound effects result from increased demand for cheaper energy services while indirect rebound effects result from increased demand for other goods and services that also require energy to provide research to date has focused upon the former but both are important for climate change this study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from seven measures that improve the energy efficiency of uk dwellings the methodology is based upon estimates of the income elasticity and greenhouse gas ghg intensity of 16 categories of household goods and services and allows for the embodied emissions of the energy efficiency measures themselves as well as the capital cost of the measures rebound effects are measured in ghg terms and relate to the adoption of these measures by an average uk household the study finds that the rebound effects from these measures are typically in the range 5 15 and arise mostly from indirect effects this is largely because expenditure on gas and electricity is more ghg intensive than expenditure on other goods and services however the anticipated shift towards a low carbon electricity system in the uk may lead to much larger rebound effects

an analysis of price discovery from panel data models of cds and equity returns abstract we propose a panel data model of price discovery we find that the stock market contributes to price discovery in most sectors while the credit default swap cds market contributes to price discovery in only a few sectors we discover that in sectors where both the stock market and the cds market contribute to price discovery it is the stock market that dominates the price discovery process when we consider investment grade stocks the importance of the cds market in price discovery improves but the stock market still dominates the price discovery process the results for different sizes of stocks generally suggest that both markets are important for price discovery but it is the stock market that dominates we also find that while the price discovery process was affected by the 2007 global financial crisis the stock market still dominated the price discovery process finally in an economic significance analysis we show that investors in the cds market are able to make relatively more profits from a forecasting model that takes into account price discovery compared to a model that simply ignores the role of price discovery

integrated regressors and tests of the permanent income hypothesis abstract we use recent research on estimation and testing in the presence of unit roots to argue that hall s 1978 t and f tests of whether consumption is predicted by lagged income or by lags of consumption beyond the first are asymptotically valid a monte carlo experiment suggests that the asymptotic t and f distributions provide a good approximation to the actual finite sample distribution

transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the emu stock prices cds spreads and exchange rates abstract this paper tests for the transmission of the 2007 2010 financial and sovereign debt crises to fifteen emu countries we use daily data from 2003 to 2010 on country financial and non financial stock market indexes to analyze the stock market returns for three country groups within emu north south and small the following results hold for both the north and south european countries while the smallest countries seem to be relatively isolated from international events first we find strong evidence of crisis transmission to european non financials from us non financials but not for financials second in order to test how the sovereign debt crisis affects stock market developments we split the crisis in pre and post lehman sub periods results show that financials become significantly more dependent on changes in the difference between the greek and german cds spreads after lehman s collapse compared to the pre lehman sub period however this increase is much smaller for non financials third before the crisis euro appreciations coincide with european stock market decreases whereas this relationship reverses during the crisis finally this reversal seems to be triggered by lehman s collapse

barriers to efficiency and the privatization of township village enterprises abstract qian 2000 and others suggest that post 1994 tax and banking reforms in china combined with the development of markets for allocating resources influenced the economic performance of township village enterprises tves and private enterprises pes this paper uses chinese provincial level data to search for evidence of advantages and or disadvantages offered to tves and pes before and after the 1994 reforms we define a sectoral net income based measure of overall efficiency and decompose the measure into components that highlight the existence of credit constraints output target constraints and labour hiring constraints the results offer empirical support for qian and others explanation of why private enterprises eventually emerged as the dominant institution for allocating resources in post 1994 rural china

jevons paradox revisited the evidence for backfire from improved energy efficiency beginning with william stanley jevons in 1865 a number of authors have claimed that economically justified energy efficiency improvements will increase rather than reduce energy consumption jevons paradox is extremely difficult to test empirically but could have profound implications for energy and climate policy this paper summarises and critiques the arguments and evidence that have been cited in support of jevons paradox focusing in particular on the work of len brookes and harry saunders it identifies some empirical and theoretical weaknesses in these arguments highlights the questions they raise for economic orthodoxy and points to some interesting parallels between these arguments and those used by the biophysical school of ecological economics while the evidence in favour of jevons paradox is far from conclusive it does suggest that economy wide rebound effects are larger than is conventionally assumed and that energy plays a more important role in driving productivity improvements and economic growth than is conventionally assumed

the transmission from equity markets to commodity markets in crises periods abstractthis article investigates the transmission from equity markets to commodity markets during two major financial crises namely the subprime mortgage and the sovereign debt crises we perform an analysis on sub stages from 3 january 2003 to 31 october 2013 to capture the price behaviour of both equity and commodity markets two financial crises indicators vix and cds are used to represent fear of a crisis we find that correlations between commodity and equity markets are time varying and highly volatile during a financial crisis while sharing some common features commodities cannot be considered a homogeneous asset class segmentation characteristics of commodity markets disappear in times of financial crises reducing their substitutability as an investment portfolio for asset diversification purposes through our test for granger causality we find the existence of transmission during a financial crisis volatility spillover effect also plays a major role as transmission mechanisms after the

climbing the development ladder economic development and the evolution of occupations in rural china we study how occupations evolve across space and time during the development of an economy using a data set on more than 200 villages from 8 provinces in china we examine the main occupations that have characterised china s labour markets since the economic reforms our findings reveal a systematic evolutionary pattern of occupational emergence the evolution of occupations proceeds from traditional and fairly simple forms of subsistence agriculture to modern more complex manufacturing and service firms our findings suggest that rural development in china is being built by a process that can be described by the climbing of a development ladder with each step up the ladder denoting the economy s transition into a more complex occupational regime

from privatization to deindustrialization implications of chinese rural industry and the ownership debate revisited summary this paper examines the evolution of chinese rural industry since the rural reform in the late 1970s and revisits the debate on the role of ownership based on a case study of w county in southern jiangsu province as well as drawing on national data the author shows that the community based market dynamic had been a key factor in the expansion of rural enterprises and that its weakening in recent years has led to the closing of village enterprises and deindustrialization of the countryside large scale land expropriation sponsored by local government is the principal factor responsible for the change

energy consumption and economic growth a causality analysis for greece abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between aggregated and disaggregated levels of energy consumption and economic growth for greece for the period 1960 2006 through the application of a later development in the methodology of time series proposed by toda and yamamoto 1995 at aggregated levels of energy consumption empirical findings suggest the presence of a uni directional causal relationship running from total energy consumption to real gdp at disaggregated levels empirical evidence suggests that there is a bi directional causal relationship between industrial and residential energy consumption to real gdp but this is not the case for the transport energy consumption with causal relationship being identified in neither direction the importance of these findings lies on their policy implications and their adoption on structural policies affecting energy consumption in greece suggesting that in order to address energy import dependence and environmental concerns without hindering economic growth emphasis should be put on the demand side and energy efficiency improvements

the decline of township and village enterprises in china s economic transition summary a paradoxical phenomenon in china s transitional economy is that markets developed under predominant public ownership which nevertheless has declined with the development of markets previous studies reveal that initial political and economic conditions of reform and fiscal decentralization gave rise to local public enterprises leading role in early marketization this paper explains the subsequent fall of such a role building and expanding on recent studies of privatization we argue that market development and competition have constrained the abilities of local public enterprises to address revenue and employment imperatives whereas local governments sales oriented growth strategies have exacerbated governance problems panel data are analyzed to provide provisional test of pertinent hypotheses

modeling the demand for u k broad money 1871 1913 in this paper the author obtains and interprets estimates of short and long run demand for money in the united king dom in the period 1871 1913 utilizing high quality data on broad money and its determinants and applying recent econometric techniques a unique theoretically consistent long run function is estimated as well as a short run dynamic demand function that is formally superio r to a number of previous estimates copyright 1993 by mit press

integration vs segmentation in the canadian stock market this paper examines the issue of integration versus segmentation of the canadian equity market relative to a global north american market we compare the international and domestic versions of the capm and find that integration or the mean variance efficiency of the global market index is rejected by the data segmentation is the preferred model based on a maximum likelihood procedure correcting for thin trading we further divide the sample into securities that are interlisted in canada and the u s and those that are not integration is rejected for both groups which indicates that the source of segmentation can be traced to legal barriers based on the nationality of issuing firms empirical studies of international capital markets have left the issue of segmentation versus integration largely unresolved yet the question of national or international pricing of assets has crucial implications for financial decisions if national stock markets are segmented then international portfolios should display superior risk adjusted performance because some of the priced domestic systematic risk is diversifiable also with segmentation many irrelevance propositions for corporate financial strategy break down home firms face optimal hedging decisions as well as optimal foreign versus home borrowing decisions finally criteria for capital budgeting decisions will be quite different under national and international pricing the purpose of this paper is to shed some light on this integration versus segmentation question for the canadian equity market vis a vis a global north american market in this paper integration is defined2 as a situation where investors earn the same risk adjusted expected return on similar financial instruments in different national markets the key problem of course is the pricing

international transmission mechanisms and contagion in housing markets this paper explores international transmission mechanism and its role in contagion effect in the housing markets across six major asian cities the analysis is based on the identification of house price diffusion effects through a global vector autoregressive gvar model estimated using quarterly data for six major asian cities hong kong tokyo seoul singapore taipei and bangkok from 1991q1 to 2011q2 the empirical results indicate that the open economies heavily relying on international trade such as singapore japan tokyo taiwan taipei and thailand bangkok show positive correlations between the economy s openness and house prices which is consistent with the balassa samuelson hypothesis interestingly some region specific conditions also appear to play important roles as determinants of house price movements which may be driven by restrictive housing policies and demand supply imbalances such as singapore and bangkok these results are reasonably robust across several model specifications the findings bear significant implications for formulation of investment strategy and public policies

negative rebound and disinvestment effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the uk economy this paper uses a computable general equilibrium cge framework to investigate the conditions under which rebound effects may occur in response to increases in energy efficiency in the uk national economy previous work for the uk has suggested that rebound effects will occur even where key elasticities of substitution in production are set close to zero the research reported in this paper involves carrying out a systematic sensitivity analysis where relative price sensitivity is gradually introduced into the system focusing specifically on elasticities of substitution in production and trade parameters in order to determine conditions under which rebound effects become a likely outcome the main result is that while there is positive pressure for rebound effects even where direct and indirect demands for energy are very price inelastic this may be partially or wholly offset by negative income competitiveness and disinvestment effects which also occur in response to falling energy prices the occurrence of disinvestment effects is of particular interest these occur where falling energy prices reduce profitability in domestic energy supply sectors leading to a contraction in capital stock in these sectors which may in turn lead to rebound effects that are smaller in the long run than in the short run a result that runs contrary to the predictions of previous theoretical work in this area

persistence of shocks and their sources in a multisectoral model of uk output growth this paper develops a multisectoral framework for the measurement of persistence of shocks to sectoral and aggregate output and provides a decomposition of the contribution of shocks from different sources to the overall persistence measure the framework is applied to u k output data distinguishing four types of macroeconomic shocks innovations in money supply growth stock returns exchange rates and oil prices among the macro shocks exchange rate shocks have the largest persistence effects on aggregate output through their effects on manufacturing sectors the contribution of the identified macro shocks to total persistence was small however compared to that of sector specific shocks copyright 1992 by royal economic society

the causal relationships between equity indices on world exchanges the engle and granger cointegration analysis and granger causality tests are applied to monthly time series of nine major stock market indices over the period january 1982 to february 1991 to examine for causal linkages the empirical results indicate that there is adequate evidence to refute the notion of informationally efficient stock markets

international co movements of real and financial economic variables this study presents a first attempt at investigating whether the international co movements of real economic activity conform to the same international co movements of financial activity this study tests the international co movements of real economic activity on the one hand and financial variables such as stock returns interest rates inflation rates and risk premiums on the other hand we employ a dynamic correlation model on data from oecd countries for the period 1980 2010 our findings demonstrate that international stock markets co react in accordance with the underlying international economic forces we also document three other results first the correlation among countries with respect to real economic activity is statistically positive but the level of this correlation is lower than that of financial variables second there is a significant increase over time in the international correlation level with respect to the financial variables finally the creation of the euro monetary union

a primer on financial contagion abstract this paper presents a theoretical framework to highlight possible channels for the international transmission of financial shocks we first review the different definitions and measures of contagion adopted by the literature we then use a simple multi country asset pricing model to classify the main elements of the current debate on contagion and provide a stylized account of how a crisis in one country can spread to the world economy in particular the model shows how crises can be transmitted across countries without assuming ad hoc portfolio management rules or market imperfections finally tracking our classification we survey the results of the empirical literature on contagion

impact of historical conflict on fdi location and performance japanese investment in china historical relations between countries bring important explanatory power for foreign direct investment fdi decisions yet little is known on whether a home host country relation exhibits heterogeneous effects on fdi across the country s subnational regions in this study we examine the long term impact of historical conflict on fdi location choices and performance using a sample of 8 646 japanese fdi in china we show that civilian casualties in different provinces of china during the second sino japanese war exert deterring effects on japanese fdi location choices furthermore we demonstrate that civilian casualties negatively affect japanese fdi performance and political capital accumulation strategies in the forms of excessive tax payment and local employment can reduce this negative effect this study contributes to the discussion on how within country differences of historical factors affect fdi location decisions and performance the findings on firms political capital accumulation strategies also provide important implications for fdi operation in an environment characterized by historical animosity

asset pricing in partially segmented markets evidence from the finnish market this paper analyzes asset pricing in a partially segmented market where citizens of a small country are allowed to hold only their domestic securities whereas the rest of the investors foreigners are essentially allowed to hold all securities in this market setting it may occur that the citizens of the small country are willing to pay less for their domestic securities than are the foreign investors the paper derives equilibrium required rates of return for different investors in this market setting which perfectly occurred in finland and tests this equilibrium model using data from the finnish stock market empirical results are consistent with the hypotheses derived from the model several studies see e g solnik 1974a and grauer and hakansson 1987 have shown that investors should diversify internationally as by so doing they can reduce the risk of their portfolio without lowering the expected return this implies that if the citizens of a certain country are by legal restrictions prohibited from holding foreign securities they may require a higher rate of return on the domestic securities than the foreign investors do this may happen because the domestic investors cannot diversify away the specific country risk in the same way that the foreign investors can thus if we could observe the prices which the foreign and domestic investors are willing to pay for these domestic securities we would expect them to differ because of this diversification effect the finnish law prohibited finnish investors from investing in foreign securities until 1986 while simultaneously allowing foreign investors to own up to 20 of the shares of any finnish company moreover since 1984 the helsinki stock exchange hse has separately quoted the prices for the unrestricted shares which can be owned both by foreign and domestic investors and for the restricted shares owned solely by domestic investors thus the market setting depicted in the previous paragraph occurred perfectly in finland during the years 1984 and 1985 in this paper our objective is to develop and test an asset pricing model which takes into account the legal restrictions in the finnish stock market in section i we specify the market structure in the finnish stock market in more detail by explaining the relevant legal restrictions affecting the market we also present some descriptive statistics on the prices of the restricted and the unrestricted on

linkages in international stock markets evidence from a classification procedure in this article we propose a new approach to evaluate the predictable components in stock indices using a boosting based classification technique and we use this method to examine causality among the three main stock market indices in the world during periods of large positive and negative price changes the empirical evidence seems to indicate that the standard poors 500 index contains incremental information that is not present in either the ftse 100 index financial times stock exchange index or the nikkei 225 index and that could be used to enhance the predictability of the large positive and negative returns in the three main stock market indices in the world this in turn would suggest a causality relationship running from the standard poors 500 index to both the ftse 100 and the nikkei 225 indices

economic news and equity market linkages between the u s and u k abstract the source of equity market linkages between the u s and u k is investigated by focusing on intraday price movements of stock index futures contracts we document heightened u k return volatility at 11 30 a m and 1 30 p m gmt which corresponds to regular macroeconomic releases in the u k and u s respectively the response of u k equities in the half hour surrounding the u s announcements is significant and similar to price movements for u s equities to the same announcements these results support the hypothesis that the documented international equity market linkages are attributable to reactions of foreign traders to public information originating from the u s

meteor showers or heat waves heteroskedastic intra daily volatility in the foreign exchange market this paper seeks to explain the causes of volatility clustering in exchange rates careful examination of intra daily exchange rates provides a test of two hypotheses heat waves and meteor showers the heat wave hypothesis is that the volatility has only country specific autocorrelation alternatively the meteor shower is a phenomenon of intra daily volatility spillovers from one market to the next using the garch model to specify the heteroskedasticity across intra daily market segments we find that the empirical evidence is generally against the null hypothesis of the heat wave using a volatility type of vector autoregression we examine the impact of news in one market on the time path of per hour volatility in other markets

a comparison of johansen and phillips hansen cointegration tests of forward market efficiency baillie and bollerslev revisited abstract this paper tries to clarify the issues involved in comparing the use of johansen juselius and phillips hansen cointegration estimators in testing forward market efficiency we present results generated by the two techniques from the dataset used by baillie and bollerslev

saving or stripping rural industry an analysis of privatization and efficiency in china abstract this paper describes the process of privatization of china s township enterprises findings from a recent field survey by the authors show how far privatization has proceeded and how it has affected firm performance the pervasiveness and impact of privatization are readily apparent the privatization in the mid 1990s was deep and fundamental more than 50 of local government owned firms have transferred their shares to the private sector partially or completely privatization is widespread regardless of what definition we use share shifting controlling interest shifting or complete although we do not find any evidence in our descriptive statistics that private and privatized firms outperform government ones the private sector does appear to be beginning to manage its firms e g labor and inventories somewhat differently our multivariate analysis however finds a positive impact of privatization on technical efficiency efficiency of china s rural industries including agro industrial firms would rise if township enterprises privatized the impact of privatization however does not occur immediately transitional costs apparently reduce private firm efficiency in the year that firms are being privatized it is possible to surmise that as privatized firms complete their ownership transition and continue to learn how to adapt to china s business environment that the gains could rise further however we cannot say if the gain in efficiency is enough to make rural industries competitive in the future

international order flows explaining equity and exchange rate returns macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies the proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure order flow the international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two country setting we obtain a structural relationship between equity returns exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow to test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the u s and france from 1999 to 2003 almost 60 of the daily returns in the s p100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets as predicted by the model daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the french market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily s p returns the model implications are also validated for intraday returns

common stochastic trends in international stock markets abstract this paper presents evidence concerning the number of common stochastic trends in the equity markets of the u s japan england germany and canada monthly and quarterly data from january 1974 through august 1990 on morgan stanley s capital international indices are used to compute johansen 1990 tests for common trends the results indicate the presence of a single common trend driving these countries stock markets estimates of the factor loadings suggest that this trend is most important in the japanese market and least important in the canadian market to interpret this evidence the paper demonstrates that under weak conditions the unit root and cointegration structure of stock prices should mirror the unit root and cointegration structure of their dividend payments the paper tests this prediction by constructing national dividend series from capital international s dividend yield data as well as by using gnp data as with stock prices the evidence points to a single common trend although the stochastic properties and relative importance of this trend differs somewhat from the trend in stock prices

risks of latin america sovereign debts before and after the financial crisis we investigate the financial determinants of the return and volatility of sovereign cds spread from six major latin american countries before and after the bankruptcy of lehman brothers other than cboe vix index we also find that global factors including us baa aaa default yield ted spread and us treasury rate all contribute to the changes in these sovereign cds spread although global risk aversion vix is a significant determinant of sovereign debt spread in the years after the crisis the emphasis has shifted towards short term refinancing risk ted furthermore the risk of greek sovereign debt crisis also transmitted latin american cds spreads immediately but only in the post lehman sub period these findings provide implications for international bonds and credit derivatives trading strategies

measuring energy rebound effect in the chinese economy an economic accounting approach estimating the magnitude of china s economy wide rebound effect has attracted much attention in recent years most existing studies measure the rebound effect through the additional energy consumption from technological progress however in general technological progress is not equivalent to energy efficiency improvement consequently their estimation may be misleading to overcome the limitation this paper develops an alternative approach for estimating energy rebound effect based on the proposed approach china s economy wide energy rebound effect is revisited the empirical result shows that during the period 1981 2011 the rebound effects in china are between 30 and 40 with an average value of 34 3

evolution in dynamic linkages across daily national stock indexes abstract this article investigates how dynamic linkages among the daily rates of return of eight national stock indexes have evolved since 1972 a dynamic simultaneous equations model is estimated to describe the contemporaneous and lead lag relationships across national equity markets over three different years 1972 1980 and 1987 results reveal growing market interdependence within the same geographical region over time while there are many significant intermarket relationships within the same 24 hour period there are few significant lagged responses across markets beyond 24 hours this suggests a high degree of international market efficiency furthermore japan s market influence has been growing to rival that of the usa

far from the tree do private entrepreneurs agglomerate around public sector incumbents during economic transition while it is well known that state enterprises in transition economies were displaced by private enterprises at a macro level little is known about whether private entrepreneurs emerged in a way that helped preserve or shift preexisting agglomerations of industrial activity at a microgeographic level to address this question we integrate competing perspectives on the role of large bureaucratic incumbents in spawning entrepreneurs we conceptualize a trade off between two countervailing effects of large incumbents on potential entrepreneurs bureaucratic socialization and exposure to capabilities this yields novel predictions about how different kinds of startups agglomerate around different kinds of incumbents we test these predictions using fine grained geographic data on founding rates by private entrepreneurs in china s bicycle manufacturing industry consistent with our theorized trade off we find evidence of a nonmonotonic effect of incumbent size on local founding rates by private entrepreneurs additional moderating effects are consistent with boundary conditions on the hypothesized mechanisms our results provide the first empirical investigation of the extent to which entrepreneurial activity agglomerated around public sector incumbents during economic transition we discuss how these insights add to the understanding of economic transition as well as how the context of economic transition adds to the understanding of entrepreneurial spawning

fiscal incentives and policy choices of local governments evidence from china abstract this paper examines how fiscal incentives affect the policy choices of local governments in the context of china based on exogenous changes in the intergovernmental revenue sharing scheme we construct a simulated instrumental variable to resolve the endogeneity problem we find evidence that local governments shifted their efforts from fostering industrial growth to urbanizing china i e to developing the real estate and construction sectors when their retention rate of enterprise tax revenue was reduced the increase from the new revenue source compensated for half of the losses in revenue that resulted from the reassignment of fiscal rights the reassignment had also the effect of retarding the industrial growth of domestically owned firms in particular

long and short term dynamic causal transmission amongst international stock markets abstract this paper investigates the dynamic causal linkages amongst nine major international stock price indexes in order to gauge the causal transmission patterns we employ very recent methods of i vector error correction modeling and ii level var modeling with possibly integrated and cointegrated processes advocated by i toda and phillips econometrica 61 1993 1367 and ii toda and yamamoto j econometrics 66 1995 225 respectively the paper illustrates how such methods may be appropriately augmented in a compatible fashion to unearth previously unfounded linkage properties inherent amongst a system of stock price indexes in particular we demonstrate that previous research by using ordinary difference vars ignored an important component of linkages displayed purely over the long run this untapped evidence essentially provides robust and very useful information to international financial analysts and investors at a substantive level results of this study tend to support the contention offered by several studies in the literature of significant interdependencies between the established oecd and the asian markets and also the leadership of the us and uk markets over the short and long run the levels var however illustrate the japanese market s influence as an additional long run leader findings seem to be plausible given that these three markets us uk and japan have consistently contributed over 75 of global stock market capitalization over the major part of the sample under consideration at a methodological level this analysis also provides a primer for the wealth of applied financial econometric research focusing on dynamic causal inference which involve systems containing possibly integrated and cointegrated processes

leaders managers and the organization of township and village enterprises in china abstract the managerial contractual form in china s township and village enterprise tve sector has evolved rapidly during the past 10 years our paper uses descriptive data and a theoretical model to demonstrate that these changes may be occurring in response to the rapid development of markets in transitional rural china we econometrically test the model s main hypotheses showing that the driving force behind the movement from a leader run fixed wage contract to a fixed payment contract with better incentives for the manager is the relative value of non marketed inputs owned by local leaders and firm managers firm technical structure and local market setting also plays a role in the determination of firm contractual form

cointegration and stock prices the random walk on wall street revisited abstract one of the more famous and empirically regular instances of unit roots occurs in stock price series where they are consistent with rational expectations and efficient markets under certain assumptions in this paper we investigate the dynamic behavior of five stock prices over the volatile period from january 1972 through december 1979 finding that the series are cointegrated with one dominant common trend a component with an estimated root of 0 95 in addition we find a lesser trend and two complex roots in the cycle model these findings are validated by out of sample forecasts beginning in january 1980 in addition to mean squared error criteria the forecasts are evaluated nonparametrically in two separate applications of a test due to henriksson and merton

money growth volatility and the macroeconomy this study analyzes the effects of variability in money growth on the macroeconomy for the period 1961 1 1984 4 within the context of a vector autoregressive model that contains variables typically included in a small macro model variance decompositions and historical decompositions are used to assess the impact of money growth variability the variance decompositions suggest substantial effects of money growth variability on the long term interest rate output and the price level historical decompositions for 1979 4 1984 4 suggest substantial effects of money growth variability on the interest rate and output but smaller effects on the price level are found copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

the international price transmission in stock index futures markets i introduction numerous studies have investigated market linkages and price transmission mechanisms in major international equity markets employing the analytical framework of the vector autoregression var or its variant the error correction model ecm 1 studies such as von furstenberg and jeon 1989 eun and shim 1989 and koch and koch 1991 focus on the short run dynamic pattern of price transmission others like taylor and tonks 1989 and francis and leachman 1998 are primarily interested in the long run pattern of price transmission more recently an increasing number of studies explore both long and short run patterns of price transmission included in this last set are the works of malliaris and urrutia 1992 arshanapalli and doukas 1993 masih and masih 2001 and bessler and yang 2003 among others this study extends the examination of international price transmission to stock index futures markets the article contributes to the existing literature in three aspects first a relatively new empirical framework is applied to allow for inferences of price transmission at three different time horizons instantaneous the short run and the long run building on recent advances in statistical analysis of causal modeling using directed acyclic graphs dags as in spirtes et al 2000 pearl 1995 2000 and swanson and granger 1997 this study is able to explore the contemporaneous causal pattern underlying the correlations among market innovations the existence of strong contemporaneous correlations among market innovations has been well documented in the united states and international stock markets by agmon 1972 eun and shim 1989 koch and koch 1991 housbrouk 1995 and bessler and yang 2003 it is also well recognized by agmon 1972 849 and eun and shim 1989 246 that contemporaneous correlations among market innovations reflect the phenomenon that new information in one market is transmitted and shared by other markets in contemporaneous time due to immediate response to price changes between markets however more in depth analysis on exactly how instantaneous price transmission among market innovations is conducted in international equity markets has not yet been well addressed in the existing literature although bessler and yang 2003 touch on the issue the necessity of imposing constraints in the spirit of the block recursive structure noted by koch and koch 1991 in the dag analysis of var innovations is proposed and discussed thoroughly in this study second innovation accounting analysis is more thoroughly explored in the study innovation accounting tools i e impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition have been commonly used to summarize the dynamic pattern of price transmission among international financial markets the importance of the factorization of innovations i e var residuals in yielding sound inference has been well acknowledged theoretically by bernanke 1986 sims 1986 and swanson and granger 1997 the application of the dag technique as discussed in swanson and granger 1997 and explained in the next section is further key to innovation accounting analysis in this study the instantaneous price transmission pattern between market innovations as identified by the dag analysis provides a data determined solution to the basic problem of orthogonalization of residuals from the ecm and thus is critical to impulse response analysis or forecast error variance decompositions swanson and granger 1997 argue that compared to the choleski decomposition the dag based structural decomposition is sensible but not subjective because it allows for the properties exhibited by the data although several recent studies such as those by bessler and yang 2003 bessler et al 2003 haigh and bessler forthcoming and yang 2003 have used the dag based structural decomposition in a similar setting the study is the first attempt responding to the suggestion by swanson and granger 1997 364 of investigating the empirical implications of the dag based contemporaneous causal modeling