market access well being and nutrition evidence from ethiopia summary we use a unique data source from a rural area in northwestern ethiopia to analyze the relationship between household individual well being nutrition and market access we find that households residing in relatively more remote areas consume substantially less than households nearer to the market they are more food insecure and their school enrollment rates are lower although their diets are also less diverse we find no significant differences in mother and child anthropometric measures part of the differences in well being that we do observe can be attributed to lower household agricultural production in remote areas nonetheless agricultural production differences alone do not account for all the differences in household consumption levels for remote households an additional contributing factor is the terms of trade for remote households that negatively affect both the size of the agricultural surplus that these households market and the quantity of food items that they purchase reducing transaction costs for remote households and facilitating migration could help equalize well being among more or less favored locations

disentangling the effects of policy and payment consequentiality and risk attitudes on stated preferences abstract incentivizing respondents to truthfully reveal their preferences in stated preference surveys requires that they believe their survey responses can influence decisions related to the outcome in question policy consequentiality and that they will have to bear their share of the coercive cost if the outcome is implemented payment consequentiality we investigate the effects of these two aspects of perceived consequentiality on stated preferences in a field survey concerning renewable energy development in poland we find that beliefs in policy and payment consequentiality strengthen the respondents interest in having the project implemented however policy consequentiality decreases and payment consequentiality increases their sensitivity to the project cost which respectively increases and decreases their willingness to pay for the project we conclude that the two aspects of consequentiality should be addressed separately additionally we inquire the theoretically speculated links between the respondents perceptions of policy and payment consequentiality and their risk attitudes and we find no significant relationship

an analytical model of farmers demand for replacement seed the purchase of new seed of a variety that a farmer is already growing varietal replacement in general and varietal choice during periods of rapid technological change are examples of seed replacement choices a seed replacement choice differs from decisions about other inputs such as fertilizer or labor in that seeds can be repro duced for the next crop season benefits from the purchase of new seed can continue for sev eral years and purchased seed is a self sustain ing input although it is subject to depreciation replacement seed is therefore in some ways analogous to a capital item rather than a variable input agricultural economists in general have considered only the analysis of varietal choice with rapid technological change theoretical nowshirvani and empirical herath har daker and anderson gafsi and roe studies of varietal choice tend to model the farmer s de cision as a single period portfolio allocation of land between modern and traditional varieties thus the attributes of interest are yield mo ments of the yield distribution and occasionally other varietal characteristics other approaches to analyzing farmers choice of seed technology emphasize how a related input fertilizer tube wells affects the level and riskiness of return feder 1980 1982 prices risk the lumpiness of the associated inputs and possible credit con straints determine the portfolio choice over time in these models in none of these approaches is the more general case of demand for replace ment seed explicitly recognized this paper proposes an analytical model of the demand for replacement seed the model describes the factors that induce a farmer to re place seed and the optimal frequency of new seed purchase given myopic and infinite time hori zons the model is applied to wheat seed de mand in pakistan conclusions limitations and possible extensions of the model are also con sidered

understanding the process of agricultural technology adoption mineral fertilizer in eastern dr congo summary we analyze the adoption of mineral fertilizer in south kivu we model technology adoption as a three step process including awareness tryout and adoption and empirically analyze these steps using cross sectional farm household data and bivariate and heckman selection probit models we find that awareness about fertilizer is high 57 and mainly determined by education and social capital tryout is low 13 of aware farmers but positively influenced by extension interventions continued adoption is high 70 of tryout farmers but capital constraints are important and not all extension interventions are effective for continued adoption our results entail implications for extension policies in poor areas

input subsidy programs in sub saharan africa a synthesis of recent evidence input subsidy programs have once again become a major plank of agricultural development strategies in africa ten african governments spend roughly us 1 billion annually on input subsidy programs isps amounting to 28 6 of their public expenditures on agriculture this article reviews the microlevel evidence on isps undertaken since the mid 2000s we examine the characteristics of subsidy beneficiaries crop response rates to fertilizer application and their influence on the performance of subsidy programs the impacts of subsidy programs on national fertilizer use and the development of commercial input distribution systems and finally the impact of isps on food price levels and poverty rates the weight of the evidence indicates that the costs of the programs generally outweigh their benefits findings from other developing areas with a higher proportion of crop area under irrigation and with lower fertilizer prices factors that should provide higher returns to fertilizer subsidies than in africa indicate that at least a partial reallocation of expenditures from fertilizer subsidies to r d and infrastructure would provide higher returns to agricultural growth and poverty reduction however because isps enable governments to demonstrate tangible support to constituents they are likely to remain on the african landscape for the foreseeable future hence the study identifies ways in which benefits can be enhanced through changes in implementation modalities and complementary investments within a holistic agricultural intensification strategy among the most important of these are efforts to reduce the crowding out of commercial fertilizer distribution systems and programs to improve soil fertility to enable farmers to use fertilizer more efficiently the challenges associated with achieving these gains are likely to be formidable

adoption and the impact of system of rice intensification on rice yields and household income an analysis for india this paper examines the determinants and impacts of the adoption of five mutually exclusive practices system of rice intensification sri on yields and household incomes using a multinomial endoge

factors impeding credit use in small farm households in bolivia sample survey data show few bolivian small farm households using credit but most would like to borrow from formal market institutions a theoretical framework is developed to formulate testable hypotheses to identify factors that inhibit credit use major impediments to borrowing are scale of operations as measured by amount of useable land and borrower s transactions costs that arise from loan paperwork use of indian language remoteness from market little education and low degree of market integration when farmers with these characteristics borrow they tend to use informal market sources because of the lower transactions costs compared to those of formal market lenders the policy implication is if formal market lenders are to reach more farmers they must lower transactions costs

money matters the role of yields and profits in agricultural technology adoption despite the growing attention to technology adoption in the economics literature knowledge gaps remain regarding why some valuable technologies are rapidly adopted while others are not this paper contributes to our understanding of agricultural technology adoption by showing that a focus on yield gains may in some contexts be misguided we study a technology in ethiopia that has no impact on yields but that has nonetheless been widely adopted using three waves of panel data we estimate a correlated random coefficient model and calculate the returns to improved chickpea in terms of yields costs and profits we find that farmers comparative advantage does not play a significant role in their adoption decisions and hypothesize that this is due to the overall high economic returns to adoption despite the limited yield impacts of the technology our results suggest economic measures of returns may be more relevant than increases in yields in explaining technology adoption decisions

the causes of order effects in contingent valuation surveys an experimental investigation contingent valuation researchers have found that the hypothetical values respondents place on a nested sequence of environmental goods are sensitive to the order in which the goods are presented typically the smallest bundle of goods is valued more highly if presented first than if following more comprehensive bundles such effects appear even when each bundle is valued from an exclusive list or as an alternative to any other so that income and substitution effects are controlled we conduct lab experiments where participants are asked to value sequences of nested goods for purchase from an exclusive list using an incentive compatible becker degroot marschak mechanism we test whether order effects occur in valuation for a induced value goods b actual private goods and c identical private goods that are to be donated to charities we find significant order effects when the goods are valued for own use but not when they are valued for donation

risk aversion and credit constraints in farmers decision making a reinterpretation in 1976 the agricultural development council sponsored a conference on risk uncertainty and agricultural development which has been summarised in a volume edited by james roumasset jean marc boussard and inderjit singh 1979 the volume provides an excellent review of the state of the art at that time however as discussed in the summary chapters of that volume there were few theoretical empirical or policy issues on which clear conclusions could be reached on the basis of knowledge then available in the intervening years progress has been made on a number of issues as a result of both empirical investigations and theoretical advances this paper concentrates on advances which have relevance to the controversy about the relative roles of risk aversion and credit constraints in limiting farmers investment levels especially for purchased inputs such as seeds or fertilizers in particular we review recent experimental studies on the extent of risk aversion among farmer populations in developing

are nonconvexities important for understanding growth everyday experience and a simple logical argument show that nonconvexities are essential for understanding growth compared to previous statements of this well known argument the presentation here places more emphasis on the distinction between two of the fundamental attributes of any economic good rivalry and excludability it also emphasizes the difference between public goods and the technological advances that are fundamental to economic growth like public goods technological advances are rionrival goods hence they are inextricably linked to nonconvexities but in contrast to public goods which are nonexcludable technological advances generate benefits that are at least partially excludable hence innovations in the technology are for the most part privately provided this means that nonconvexities are relevant for goods that trade in private markets consequently an equilibrium with price taking in all markets cannot be sustained concluding remarks describe some of the recent equilibrium growth models that do not rely on price taking and highlight some of the implications of these models this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the last mile s in modern input distribution pricing profitability and adoption increasing adoption of modern inputs remains one of the best hopes for greater agricultural production in developing countries based on unique data from northwestern ethiopia this study examines the last mile s from the input distribution center to the farmer in the chemical fertilizer and improved seed distribution system we find that increasing transaction and transportation costs over a 35 km distance along a route mainly accessible to only foot traffic lead to a 50 increase of the price of chemical fertilizer and to a 75 reduction in its use farmers who live about 10 km from the distribution center face per unit transaction and transportation costs as high as the costs needed to bring the fertilizer from the international port to the input distribution center about 1 000 km tackling the last mile s costs should thus be a priority to improve modern input adoption and use in these settings

what are the consequences of consequentiality abstract we investigate the extent to which dichotomous choice referenda responses are shaped by whether the individual believes the survey itself will ultimately impact policy using survey data from the iowa lakes project we test this supposition specifically we employ a bayesian treatment effect model in which the degree of perceived consequentiality measured as an ordinal response is permitted to have a structural impact on willingness to pay wtp for a hypothetical environmental improvement we test whether the estimated wtp distributions are the same for each value of the ordinal response in our survey data a subsample of individuals were randomly assigned supporting information suggesting that their responses to the questionnaires were important and will have an impact on policy decisions in conjunction with a bayesian posterior simulator we use this source of exogenous variation to identify the structural impacts of consequentiality perceptions on willingness to pay while controlling for the potential of confounding on unobservables we find evidence consistent with a knife edge result namely that the willingness to pay distributions are equal among those believing the survey to be at least minimally consequential and different for those believing that the survey is irrelevant for policy purposes

sequential adoption of site specific technologies and its implications for nitrogen productivity a double selectivity model this paper analyzes the sequential decision to adopt two site specific technologies soil testing and variable rate technology and the impact of adoption on nitrogen productivity the results indicate that while farm location was a key variable influencing adoption of soil testing farm size human capital and innovativeness of farmers had a significant impact on adoption of variable rate technology in four midwestern states a double selectivity model applied to correct for sample selection bias shows that adoption leads to significant gains in nitrogen productivity for farms with below average soil quality but statistically insignificant gains for farms with above average soil quality copyright 2001 oxford university press

rural finance and agricultural technology adoption in ethiopia does the institutional design of lending organizations matter summary it has now become almost a stylized fact that sustained agricultural growth is central to rapid poverty reduction and economic development yet world poverty is largely concentrated in the agrarian societies which have the potential for agricultural productivity growth this is particularly true for sub saharan african countries where the gaps between potential and actual yields remain high minimizing this gap through the promotion of modern inputs such as fertilizer and modern seeds has been at the core of almost all development strategies in ethiopia among other initiatives the country has promoted microfinance institutions and member owned financial cooperatives to alleviate credit constraints of the smallholder farmers this paper analyzes the impacts of these institutions using household survey data and a propensity score matching technique we examine the effects that institutional financial services have on farmers adoption of agricultural technology in ethiopia the results suggest that access to institutional finance has a significant positive impact on both the adoption and extent of technology use however when impacts are disaggregated by type of financial institution and farm size heterogeneities are observed in particular financial cooperatives have a greater impact on technology adoption than microfinance institutions and the results appear to vary depending on farm size and types of inputs the paper concludes with implications for policies to promote adoption of modern agricultural inputs

adoption of interrelated agricultural innovations complementarity and the impacts of risk scale and credit the paper presents a model of farm decisions which arise when a farm is faced with two interrelated innovations the innovations are distinguished by their returns to scale and may be adopted individually it is shown that under conditions of uncertainty or a binding credit constraint the intuitive concept of innovations complementarity may be misleading and a more relevant definition of complementarity is derived the latter helps to explain why policies which enhance adoption of one innovation may discourage adoption of the other even when the two innovations seem to complement each other

hypothetical versus real willingness to pay in the health care sector results from a field experiment abstract we conducted a field experiment comparing hypothetical and real purchase decisions for a pharmacist provided asthma management program among 172 subjects with asthma subjects received either a dichotomous choice contingent valuation question or were given the opportunity to actually enroll in the program three different prices were used us 15 40 and 80 in the hypothetical group 38 of subjects said that they would purchase the good at the stated price but only 12 of subjects in the real group purchased the good p 0 000 we cannot however reject the null hypothesis that definitely sure hypothetical yes responses as identified in a follow up question correspond to real yes responses we conclude that the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method overestimates willingness to pay but that it may be possible to correct for this overestimation by sorting out definitely sure yes responses

policies to promote cereal intensification in ethiopia the search for appropriate public and private roles over the past decade policymakers have been searching for an appropriate blend of public and private sector roles to accelerate the intensification of food staple production smallholder commercialization and sustainable market development in sub saharan africa in ethiopia steps taken to liberalize markets in the 1990s and promote fertilizer and seed packages have yet to generate payoffs in terms of higher cereal yields lower food prices or reduced dependency on food aid this raises concern about the performance of the agricultural sector specifically in terms of the systems for providing improved seed fertilizer credit and extension services this paper examines the evolving roles of the public and private sectors in intensifying cereal production in ethiopia findings suggest that while ethiopia has an admirable record of supporting agriculture its state led policies has now outlived their usefulness these findings for ethiopia offer lessons that are potentially applicable to other sub saharan african countries facing similar challenges

what experimental protocol influence disparities between actual and hypothetical stated values preferences elicited in hypothetical settings have recently come underscrutiny causing estimates from the contingent valuation method to bechallenged due to perceived hypothetical bias given that the receivedliterature derives value estimates using heterogeneous experimentaltechniques understanding the effects of important design parameters onthe magnitude of hypothetical bias is invaluable in this paper we addressthis issue statistically by using a meta analysis to examine data from 29experimental studies our empirical findings suggest that on averagesubjects overstate their preferences by a factor of about 3 in hypotheticalsettings and that the degree of over revelation is influenced by thedistinction between willingness to pay and willingness to accept publicversus private goods and several elicitation methods

the profitability concentration relation market power or efficiency industrial economists have been studying the relationship between profitability and concentration using cross industry samples for many years now however as sometimes happens once it appeared that some consensus had been achieved with few exceptions market concentration and industry profitability are positively correlated peltzman i977 p 229 people began to question the interpretation of those results in particular demsetz e g i973 i974 and others suggested that rather than concentration market power leading to higher prices and profits the causal direction in fact ran from greater efficiency to both higher profits and incidentally to higher concentration our purpose here is to subject these conflicting hypotheses to cross industry empirical test using u k data in order to do this we first develop a model which is sufficiently general to allow for both alternative explanations of a positive concentration profitability correlation in the light of this model we then examine the implications for the within industry relation between market share and firm level profitability more specifically we explore demsetz s claim that the empirical form of this relationship should signal which of the alternative hypotheses is consistent with the between industry profitability concentration correlation our model suggests that in certain special circumstances this claim is partly justified in that it should be possible to assess the relative strengths of the market power and efficiency effects from the within industry relation more generally however factors such as product differentiation and scale economies may seriously impair the information content of the relation with at least a strong suspicion that the estimates will tend to exaggerate the evidence in favour of the efficiency hypothesis in the event our results tend to confirm that for most industries the within industry data offer little conclusive support for either hypothesis but for a not insignificant minority of industries the evidence suggests some support for the view that both efficiency and market power are at work simultaneously our model is detailed in section ii and estimated on u k data in section iii after which we offer a few comments in section iv first however we drovide a backcloth to the later analysis

grain marketing parastatals in asia results from six case studies summary using case studies from six asian countries this paper assesses the relevance of underlying rationales for public intervention in food grain markets documents the existing policies and regulatory supports to grain marketing parastatals examines benefits and costs of parastatals and summarizes lessons from reforms and reduced interventions the results suggest that commonly cited rationales for food market intervention are no longer convincing the costs of parastatals led price stabilization are staggering and the price policies are being dictated by special interests the evidences from the early reformers indicate that reduced intervention can promote competition reduce subsidies and release funds for development and anti poverty programs all without jeopardizing price stability

reliability of recall in agricultural data despite the importance of agriculture to economic development and a vast accompanying literature on the subject little research has been done on the quality of the underlying data due to survey logistics agricultural data are usually collected by asking respondents to recall the details of events occurring during past agricultural seasons that took place a number of months prior to the interview this gap can lead to recall bias in reported data on agricultural activities the problem is further complicated when interviews are conducted over the course of several months thus leading to recall of variable length to test for such recall bias the length of time between harvest and interview is examined for three african countries with respect to several common agricultural input and harvest measures the analysis shows little evidence of recall bias impacting data quality there is some indication that more salient events are less subject to recall decay overall the results allay some concerns about the quality of some types of agricultural data collected through recall over lengthy periods

agricultural transformation in africa assessing the evidence in ethiopia summary despite significant efforts africa has struggled to imitate the rapid agricultural growth that took place in asia in the 1960s and 1970s as a rare but important exception ethiopia s agriculture sector recorded remarkable rapid growth during 2004 14 this paper explores this rapid change in the agriculture sector of this important country the second most populous in africa we review the evidence on agricultural growth and decompose the contributions of modern inputs to growth using an adjusted solow decomposition model we also highlight the key pathways ethiopia followed to achieve its agricultural growth we find that land and labor use expanded significantly and total factor productivity grew by about 2 3 per year over the study period moreover modern input use more than doubled explaining some of this growth the expansion in modern input use appears to have been driven by high government expenditures on the agriculture sector including agricultural extension but also by an improved road network higher rural education levels and favorable international and local price incentives

structural transformation of cereal markets in ethiopia abstractwe study cereal markets in ethiopia over the last decade a period that has been characterised by important local changes including strong economic growth urbanisation improved road and communication infrastructure and higher adoption of modern inputs in agriculture these changes are associated with better spatial price integration as well as with significant declines in real price differences between supplying and receiving markets and in cereal milling and retail margins in short important improvements have occurred in ethiopia s cereal marketing system this is especially important because dysfunctional cereal markets were previously identified as an important cause of food insecurity in the country

impacts of land certification on tenure security investment and land market participation evidence from ethiopia this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled impacts of land certification on tenure security investment and land market participation evidence from ethiopia conducted between 2006 and 2011 in ethiopia the study observed the impact of land registration on tenure security land related investment and rental market participation using 900 randomly selected households and 4000 plots cultivated by the households on the household and land plots level certification resulted in significant reduction of tenure insecurity and an increase in land related investment the propensity to invest in water conservation increased between 20 and 30 percent from panel estimates the increased investment appears to be sustained over the long term the propensity to rent land increases by 9 to 13 percent the titling had significant positive impacts on the rate at which female headed households rented their land funding for the study derived from the gender action plan global land tools network and norwegian environmentally and socially sustainable development essd trust fund

do oligopolists earn noncompetitive rates of return high in effect is defined in this proposition in either of two ways most commonly it has been taken to mean high enough to warrant remedial intervention of some sort by the state 4 recently however a growing minority of economists has urged that it be taken to mean instead high enough to warrant intervention provided the state can show that rates of return in excess of r1 reflect collusive behavior by the leading firms and not cost advantages which these firms have over their leading rivals both meanings in turn reflect a third high enough to imply a typical market price closer to pm in figure lb than to pc where pm is the price that would prevail if the leading firms maximized collective current period profits and pc is the price that would prevail if collective current period profits approximated zero 6 proposition 1 rests on a large body of empirical work proposition 2 however does not nor does it rest on any theoretical analysis industrial economists simply have intuited that there is a correspondence between the r1r2 segment in figure la and the pmp segment in figure lb are there substantive grounds for the intuition i argue that there are not the rates of return that lie along the r1r2 segment are competitive

using cheap talk as a test of validity in choice experiments abstract in two experiments on the choice of consumer goods the estimated marginal willingness to pay for food is found to be lower in the survey version with cheap talk our test can be seen as a test of hypothetical bias this implies that we cannot reject the hypothesis of a hypothetical bias for marginal wtp in choice experiments

delegated monitors large and small germany s banking system 1800 1914 banks play a greater role in the german financial system than in those of the united states or britain germany s large universal banks are admired by those who advocate bank deregulation in the united states others admire the universal banks for their supposed role in corporate governance and industrial finance many discussions distort the german banking system by overstressing one of several types of banks and ignore the competition and cooperation between the famous universal banks and other banking groups tracing the historical development of the german banking system from the early nineteenth century places the large universal banks in context

oligopoly and welfare welfare losses due to monopoly have received much attention in the literature since the pioneering work of harberger 1954 over the past decade the discussion has inter alia been extended to take explicit account of oligopolistic interaction see in particular dixit and stern 1982 masson and shaanan 1984 daskin 1991 however the ultimate aim has mostly remained to work towards theoretically well grounded empirical estimates of actual losses in different industries sectors or economies as daskin observes the range of estimated losses though significantly larger than harberger s original 0 1 per cent of gnp with one or two notable exceptions rarely exceeds 1 3 per cent of the value of output based on monopoly models1 though using a theoretical extension and empirical implementation of dixit and stern daskin himself goes on to report an estimate of 6 10 per cent of the value of shipments for the us manufacturing sector if industry demand is elastic and considerably higher with inelastic demand

toward a green revolution in africa what would it achieve and what would it require the current global food crisis has reemphasized the costliness of africa s failure to achieve food security and poverty reduction the instrument by which other more successful developing countries achieved these outcomes was a green revolution in agriculture while previous research has provided largely discursive appraisals of the viability of an african green revolution this article adopts a more rigorous methodology to address that question first an economy wide multimarket model augmented with existing poverty growth elasticities is developed to assess the likely impacts of a rapid acceleration in food production of the kind witnessed in previous green revolutions on food prices consumption and demand farmer revenue and poverty our results suggest that a rapid growth in staple production together with more integrated regional markets would reduce food prices by roughly 20 40 for consumers and 10 20 for producers among the major crops this translates into a large rise in farm revenues annual agricultural growth rates of 6 5 or higher broader income growth and food security and over 70 million africans being lifted out of poverty the article concludes by emphasizing the kinds of fundamental policy actions and resources that would be required for achieving these outcomes

how productive is infrastructure a new approach and evidence from rural india there have been competing arguments about the effect of public infrastructure on productivity level based and debate based regressions often lead to different estimates to help reconcile this difference this article applies the gmm method to first test for causality to check for length of lagged relationships and the existence of reverse causality before specifying a final model and deciding the estimation procedure this approach is illustrated using a panel data set for india the results show that infrastructure development in india is productive providing supporting evidence to reverse the trend of declining investment in rural infrastructure

market structure and price cost margins in a paper that has become a standard reference in the structure conductperformance approach to industrial economics cowling and waterson 1976 developed a theoretical rationale for expecting industry profitability to be positively correlated with the level of concentration their model based on a simple algebraic description of oligopoly behaviour has been interpreted as providing a justification for the common empirical practice of cross industry regression analysis of price cost margins in terms of concentration levels in the present paper we show that on further examination this model implies a joint determination of margins and concentration this provides some interesting comparative static results of relevance to inter industry differences in concentration levels equally however it leads to various cautionary insights concerning the meaning of price cost margin versus concentration regressions

the dynamics of agricultural biotechnology adoption lessons from series rbst use in wisconsin 1994 2001 this article exploits panel data from wisconsin dairy farmers to examine the dynamics of recombinant bovine somatotropin rbst adoption and to identify the characteristics that distinguish among nonadopters disadopters and early and late adopters panel methods are used to control for omitted variables and endogenous regressors that call into question coefficient estimates derived from cross section adoption models the results however confirm previous findings that larger farms with complementary feeding technologies are more likely to adopt rbst nonadopters appear quite unlikely to become adopters and rbst adoption will remain at rather moderate levels in wisconsin

exploring preference anomalies in double bounded contingent valuation double bounded dichotomous choice dbdc contingent valuation offers increased efficiency of willingness to pay wtp estimates compared with the single bounded format however evidence suggests dbdc generates anomalous respondent behaviour this paper provides the first investigation and explanation of these anomalies in health results suggest the incentives for truthful preference revelation are altered in the presence of a follow up question this result is found using both regression techniques and analysis of raw responses although findings suggest very certain respondents exhibit less anomalous behaviour inconsistencies remain across bounds the results of this study question the use of iterative valuation formats

thy neighbor s keeper the design of a credit cooperative with theory and a test economists now appreciate that resource allocation in less economically developed economies is profoundly influenced by non firm economic institutions however our theories of non firm institutions often suggest different answers to many questions including those of policy this paper illustrates a method for discriminating between alternative theories using data from german credit cooperatives from the nineteenth and early twentieth century germany we build a model of credit cooperatives designed to provide monitoring incentives and test this using nineteenth century data authors

the global bio economy throughout history agriculture and natural resources have been used for the production of food feed fibre fuel and environmental goods recent developments in demand both in terms of quantity and quality technology and traditional energy and chemistry markets have reinforced the demand for nonfood applications these developments in combination with increased consumer demands for various food characteristics have led to a rapidly growing and globally integrated bio economy this article introduces and summarizes the plenary papers on the opportunities and challenges for the bio economy that were presented at the 28th triennial conference of the international association of agricultural economists iaae in brazil the following aspects of the bio economy are covered finance volatility poverty conflict productivity investment resource constraints and governance

effects of cheap talk on consumer willingness to pay for golden rice a large body of literature suggests willingness to pay is overstated in hypothetical valuation questions as compared to when actual payment is required recently cheap talk has been proposed to eliminate the potential bias in hypothetical valuation questions cheap talk refers to process of explaining hypothetical bias to individuals prior to asking a valuation question this study explores the effect of cheap talk in a mass mail survey using a conventional value elicitation technique results indicate that cheap talk was effective at reducing willingness to pay for most survey participants however consistent with previous research cheap talk did not reduce willingness to pay for knowledgeable consumers

productivity technology and economic growth what is the relationship the relationship between productivity technology and economic growth has been debated extensively in the endogenous growth growth accounting new economy and policy literature this paper briefly surveys the literature on total factor productivity tfp calculations the various techniques and problems associated with it we argue that tfp is not a measure of technological change and only under ideal conditions does it measure the supernormal profits associated with technological change the critical driving force of economic growth is not the super normal profits that technological change generates but rather the continuous creation of opportunities for further technological development six illustrations of when tfp fails to correctly measure these super normal profits are provided a version carlaw and lipsey s 2003b model of endogenous general purpose technology driven growth is then utilized to make some progress toward answering prescott s 1998 call for a theory of tfp the model is used to simulate artificial data and connect theoretical assumptions of returns to scale and resource costs to the conditions under which tfp miss measures the actual growth of technological knowledge

poverty status and the impact of formal credit on technology use and wellbeing among ethiopian smallholders summary this paper examines the impact of formal credit largely microfinance on the use of improved technology and on consumption and asset growth across households in different degrees of asset poverty using data from rural ethiopia the analysis finds no relationship between participation in microfinance programs and the use of technologies or consumption growth among the poorest households even though the use of certain technologies like fertilizer contributes to their asset accumulation over time for other households microfinance has positive effects on both consumption and asset growth as well as on the use of improved technology the findings imply variation in constraints faced by different classes of poor households and suggest the value of asset based poverty classifications in identifying target groups for poverty interventions

why have some indian states done better than others at reducing rural poverty the unevenness of the rise in rural living standards in the various states of india since the 1950s allowed the authors to study the causes of poverty they modeled the evolution of average consumption and various poverty measures using pooled state level data for 1957 91 they found that poverty was reduced by higher agricultural yields above trend growth in nonfarm output and lower inflation rates but these factors only partly explain relative success and failure in reducing poverty initial conditions also mattered states that started the period with better infrastructure and human resources with more intense irrigation greater literacy and lower infant mortality rates had significantly greater long term rates of consumption growth and poverty reduction by and large the same variables that promoted growth in average consumption also helped reduce poverty the effects on poverty measures were partly redistributive in nature after controlling for inflation the authors found that some of the factors that helped reduce absolute poverty also improved distribution and none of the factors that reduced absolute poverty had adverse impacts on distribution in other words there was no sign of tradeoffs between growth and pro poor distribution

neighbors and extension agents in ethiopia who matters more for technology adoption improving agricultural productivity is seen as vital to economic growth in poor countries particularly in sub saharan africa where productivity growth has lagged behind that of other continents the focus has therefore been on new technologies particularly the adoption and diffusion of improved seed varieties and the increased use of fertiliser supported by investments in effective extension services it is important to understand how these new technologies spread and the effectiveness of extension services in this process

learning design contingent valuation ldcv noaa guidelines preference learning and coherent arbitrariness we extend the contingent valuation cv method to test three differing conceptions of individuals preferences as either i a priori well formed or readily divined and revealed through a single dichotomous choice question as per the noaa cv guidelines k arrow r solow p r portney e e leamer r radner h schuman report of the noaa panel on contingent valuation fed reg 58 1993 4601 4614 ii learned or discovered through a process of repetition and experience j a list does market experience eliminate market anomalies q j econ 2003 41 72 c r plott rational individual behaviour in markets and social choice processes the discovered preference hypothesis in k arrow e colombatto m perleman c schmidt eds rational foundations of economic behaviour macmillan london st martin s new york 1996 pp 225 250 iii internally coherent but strongly influenced by some initial arbitrary anchor d ariely g loewenstein d prelec coherent arbitrariness stable demand curves without stable preferences q j econ 118 1 2003 73 105 findings reject both the first and last of these conceptions in favour of a model in which preferences converge towards standard expectations through a process of repetition and learning in doing so we show that such a learning design cv method overturns the stylised facts of bias and anchoring within the double bound dichotomous choice elicitation format

using ex ante approaches to obtain credible signals for value in contingent markets evidence from the field while contingent valuation remains the only option available for measurement of total economic value of nonmarketed goods the method has been criticized due to its hypothetical nature we analyze field experimental data to evaluate two ex ante approaches to attenuating hypothetical bias directly comparing value statements across four distinct referenda hypothetical cheap talk consequential and real our empirical evidence suggests two major findings hypothetical responses are significantly different from real responses and responses in the consequential and cheap talk treatments are statistically indistinguishable from real responses we review the potential for each method to produce reliable results in the field

consumption risk technology adoption and poverty traps evidence from ethiopia much has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture with issues such as input availability knowledge and education risk preferences profitability and credit constraints receiving much attention this paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests building on an explicit model this is explored in panel data for ethiopia historical rainfall distributions are used to identify the counterfactual consumption risk controlling for unobserved household and time varying village characteristics it emerges that not just ex ante credit constraints but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail discourage the application of fertilizer the lack of insurance causes inefficiency in production choices

the evolving role of agriculture in poverty reduction an empirical perspective abstract the role of agriculture in development remains much debated this paper takes an empirical perspective and focuses on poverty as opposed to growth alone the contribution of a sector to poverty reduction is shown to depend on its own growth performance its indirect impact on growth in other sectors the extent to which poor people participate in the sector and the size of the sector in the overall economy bringing together these different effects using cross country econometric evidence indicates that agriculture is significantly more effective in reducing poverty among the poorest of the poor as reflected in the 1 day squared poverty gap it is also up to 3 2 times better at reducing 1 day headcount poverty in low income and resource rich countries including those in sub saharan africa at least when societies are not fundamentally unequal however when it comes to the better off poor reflected in the 2 day measure non agriculture has the edge these results are driven by the much larger participation of poorer households in growth from agriculture and the lower poverty reducing effect of non agriculture in the presence of extractive industries

goals of oligopolistic firms an empirical test of competing hypotheses this paper reports the results of a test of three alternative hypotheses regarding the goals of firms in oligopolistic markets profit maximization constrained sales maximization and entry prevention a theoretical framework is developed which shows that an examination of firm price elasticities of demand provides evidence about firm motivation since values less than one refute the profit maximization and sales maximization hypotheses while providing support for bain type entry prevention pricing this analytical framework is supplemented by the derivation of a general relationship between market elasticity and firm elasticity of demand which allows for an explicit treatment of the conjectural variations of firms this relationship is then used to infer firm motivation from market elasticities estimated for a group of 58 u s four digit industries over the 23 year period 1958 1980 the obtained market elasticities for 54 industries were tested against the null hypothesis of a unitary elasticity in all cases it was found that the price elasticity was not significantly greater than unity furthermore 95 confidence intervals revealed that for 37 industries the price elasticity was smaller than unity while for the remaining 17 industries the information from the constructed confidence intervals was inconclusive given the available empirical evidence the changing pattern of competition and the managerial motivation and behaviour in the modern oligopolistic world one can plausibly argue that for most of the industries covered by this study individual firm market shares have remained constant over the period under consideration assuming also consistent conjectures of rival firms 7 the results reported in this paper provide evidence against the profitmaximization and sales maximization hypotheses and in support of the entry forestalling hypothesis our findings reinforce the results of earlier studies which suggest that oligopolistic firms recognizing the long run costs of short run greed produce over the inelastic part of their demand curve in order to avoid the dangers of new entry and or government

land pressures the evolution of farming systems and development strategies in africa a synthesis abstract evidence assembled in this special issue of food policy shows that rising rural population densities in parts of africa are profoundly affecting farming systems and the region s economies in ways that are underappreciated in current discourse on african development issues this study synthesizes how people markets and governments are responding to rising land pressures in africa drawing on key findings from the various contributions in this special issue the papers herein revisit the issue of boserupian agricultural intensification as an important response to land constraints but they also go further than boserup and her followers to explore broader responses to land constraints including non farm diversification migration and reduced fertility rates agricultural and rural development strategies in the region will need to more fully anticipate the implications of africa s rapidly changing land and demographic situation and the immense challenges that mounting land pressures pose in the context of current evidence of unsustainable agricultural intensification a rapidly rising labor force associated with the region s current demographic conditions and limited nonfarm job creation these challenges are manageable but will require explicit policy actions to address the unique development challenges in densely populated rural areas

mitigating hypothetical bias evidence on the effects of correctives from a large field study the overestimation of willingness to pay wtp in hypothetical responses is a well known finding in the literature various techniques have been proposed to remove or at least reduce this bias using about 30 000 responses on wtp for a variety of power mixes from a panel of 6500 german households and the fixed effects estimator to control for unobserved heterogeneity this article simultaneously explores the effects of two common ex ante approaches cheap talk and consequential script and the ex post certainty approach to calibrating hypothetical wtp responses based on a switching regression model that accounts for the potential endogeneity of respondent certainty we find evidence for a lower wtp among those respondents who classify themselves as definitely certain about their answers although neither cheap talk nor the consequential script corrective reduce wtp estimates receiving either of these scripts increases the probability that respondents indicate definite certainty about their wtp bids

modeling multiple adoption decisions in a joint framework a multinomial probit mnp model is applied to the modeling of adoption decisions by farmers facing multiple technologies which can be adopted in various combinations this model allows for full investigation of the interactions between decisions to adopt or not adopt several technologies estimation is carried out in a bayesian framework employing gibbs sampling to circumvent past difficulties encountered in maximum likelihood estimation of the mnp model the model is estimated for a sample of u s apple growers with four possible sustainable production technology bundles the results show that adoption decisions are most significantly influenced by off farm labor supply

can modern input use be promoted without subsidies an analysis of fertilizer in ethiopia fertilizer use in ethiopia has nearly quintupled since official elimination of direct input subsidies in the early 1990s during this time policies changed from liberalization with both private and public sector participation to a government monopoly over imports along with exclusive marketing through farmers cooperatives this article presents estimates of detail costs and margins in the value chain econometrically derived profitability and yield responses as well as costs of the government s fertilizer promotion policies results suggest that a irrespective of the methods of calculation fertilizer use in major cereal is profitable b while there is no official subsidy program fertilizer promotion has involved large fiscal costs estimated at us 40 million per year since 2008 and c there has been a mismatch between government s policy targets and the effective fertilizer demand resulting in large carryover stock with estimated implicit costs of us 30 million per year during 2008 2011 areas of policy attention value chain improvements and ongoing efforts to improve for fertilizer use and profitability are discussed

agricultural technology productivity and poverty in madagascar summary this paper uses a unique spatially explicit dataset to study the link between agricultural performance and rural poverty in madagascar we show that controlling for geographical and physical characteristics communes that have higher rates of adoption of improved agricultural technologies and consequently higher crop yields enjoy lower food prices higher real wages for unskilled workers and better welfare indicators the empirical evidence strongly favors support for improved agricultural production as an important part of any strategy to reduce the high poverty and food insecurity rates currently prevalent in rural madagascar

the relation between farm size and farm productivity the role of family labor supervision and credit constraints abstract the paper shows that if the performance of hired farmhands is affected by supervision from family members and if the availability of credit is dependent on the amount of land owned then a systematic positive or negative relationship between per acre yields and farm size will prevail a model with no supervision effects on labor productivity would predict that yields are unaffected by farm size the paper also investigates the relation between land utilization and owned holding size when land rental possibilities are limited results are shown to be compatible with various observed patterns in ldcs