lp modeling for asset liability management a survey of choices and simplifications dynamic linear programming lp models for asset liability management alm are quite powerful and flexible but face two challenges 1 many modeling choices not all consistent with one another or with finance theory and 2 solution difficulties due to the large number of scenarios obtained from standard interest rate models we first survey these modeling choices with a view to help researchers make self consistent choices next we review how the dynamic lp model for alm and the representation of uncertainty therein have been simplified in the past to motivate new or hybrid models emphasizing tractability to this end we review existing static lp models as extreme modeling simplifications and aggregation as a simplification of uncertainty

financial portfolio management through the goal programming model current state of the art abstract since markowitz 1952 formulated the portfolio selection problem many researchers have developed models aggregating simultaneously several conflicting attributes such as the return on investment risk and liquidity the portfolio manager generally seeks the best combination of stocks assets that meets his her investment objectives the goal programming gp model is widely applied to finance and portfolio management the aim of this paper is to present the different variants of the gp model that have been applied to the financial portfolio selection problem from the 1970s to nowadays

interest rate volatility and the term structure a two factor general equilibrium model we develop a two factor general equilibrium model of the term structure the factors are the short term interest rate and the volatility of the short term interest rate we derive closed form expressions for discount bonds and study the properties of the term structure implied by the model the dependence of yields on volatility allows the model to capture many observed properties of the term structure we also derive closed form expressions for discount bond options we use hansen s generalized method of moments framework to test the cross sectional restrictions imposed by the model the tests support the two factor model there are essentially two approaches to the modeling of the term structure of interest rates in continuous time the equilibrium approach pioneered by

the duration vector a continuous time extension to default free interest rate contingent claims abstract this paper presents a continuous time contingent claims framework for the traditional duration vector models of chambers et al journal of financial and quantitative analysis march 1988 89 104 prisman and shores journal of banking and finance 12 1988 493 504 and others by embedding these into the merton the bell journal of economics and management science 4 1973 141 183 stochastic interest rate option pricing model using this framework we analyze the interest rate risk characteristics of bond options and callable bonds we derive duration measures that are significantly different from the ones reported previously in the literature by garman journal of financial economics 14 1985 309 315 jamshidian and zhu advances in futures and options research 3 1988 63 95 and others the upper and lower bounds of the duration vectors of bond options and callable bonds are investigated an empirical technique based on the implied volatility methodology is suggested for the computation of the duration vectors of bond options and callable bonds

short and long term effects of united nations peace operations earlier studies have shown that united nations peace operations make a positive contribution to peacebuilding efforts after civil wars but do these effects carry over to the period after the peacekeepers leave and how do the effects of un peace operations interact with other determinants of peacebuilding in the long run the author addresses these questions using a revised version of the doyle and sambanis dataset and applying different estimation methods to estimate the short term and long term effects of un peace missions he finds that un missions have robust positive effects on peacebuilding in the short term un missions can help parties implement peace agreements but the un cannot fight wars and un operations contribute more to the quality of the peace where peace is based on participation than to the longevity of the peace where peace is simply the absence of war the effects of un missions are also felt in the long run but they dissipate over time what is missing in un peacebuilding is a strategy to foster the self sustaining economic growth that could connect increased participation with sustainable peace

neoclassical labour market dynamics chaos and the real wage phillips curve abstract the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment has been extensively investigated since the early work of phillips phillips a w 1958 the relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the u k 1861 1957 economica 25 283 299 and lipsey lipsey r g 1960 the relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the u k 1861 1957 a further analysis economica 27 1 31 and it is still a matter of debate in this paper we study the dynamics of a standard neoclassical labour market under the simplest walrasian adjustment rule we show that when consumption and leisure are sufficiently low substitutes the unique walrasian equilibrium of the economy can be destabilised and regular or even chaotic fluctuations of wages and employment appear this leads to an interesting resurrection of a real wage phillips curve as a long term phenomenon

an equilibrium model of bond pricing and a test of market efficiency in two previous and related papers 3 4 the authors have reported the results of estimating a particular equilibrium model of bond pricing using quarterly data on canadian government bonds for the period 1964 to 1979 this paper reports the results of applying a similar model to the pricing of u s government bonds for the period 1958 1979 using data from the crsp government bond file the paper also extends the previous empirical analysis by evaluating the ability of the pricing model to detect underpriced and overpriced bonds the data reveal a strong relation between price prediction errors and subsequent bond returns

bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology for contingent claims valuation this paper presents a unifying theory for valuing contingent claims under a stochastic term structure of interest rates the methodology based on the equivalent martingale measure technique takes as given an initial forward rate curve and a family of potential stochastic processee for its subsequent movements a no arbitrage condition restricts this family of processes yielding valuation formulae for interest rate sensitive contingent claims which do not explicitly depend on the market prices of risk examples are provided to illustrate the key results in relation to the term structure of interest rates arbitrage pricing theory has two purposes the first is to price all zero coupon default free bonds of varying maturities from a finite number of economic fundamentals called state variables the second is to price all interest rate sensitive contingent claims taking as given the prices of the zero coupon bonds this paper presents a general theory and a unifying framework for understanding arbitrage pricing theory in this context of which all existing arbitrage pricing models are special cases in particular vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 ball and torous 1983 ho and lee 1986 schaefer and schwartz 1987 and artzner and delbaen 1988 the primary contribution of this paper however is a new methodology for solving the second problem i e the pricing of interest rate sensitive contingent claims given the prices of all zero coupon bonds the methodology is new because i it imposes its stochastic structure directly on the evolution of the forward rate curve ii it does not require an inversion of the term structure to eliminate the market prices of risk from contingent claim values and iii it has a stochastic spot rate process with multiple stochastic factors influencing the term structure the model can be used to consistently price and hedge all contingent claims american or european on the term structure and it is derived from necessary and more importantly sufficient conditions for the absence of arbitrage the arbitrage pricing models of vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 and artzner and delbaen 1988 all require an iformerly titled bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology

generalising interest rate duration with directional derivatives direction x and applications conventional or fisher weil duration is an ordinary derivative that measures the response of portfolio value to marginal parallel shifts in the term structure while other proposed measures are generally specific to particular interest rate processes in this paper we show that portfolio responses to arbitrary shifts in the term structure may be handled by the use of frechet or directional derivatives presenting a simple algorithm for the directional derivative of a fixed interest portfolio viewed as a set of cash flows for a given portfolio one can locate the most sensitive areas along the term structure by computing a function or profile direction x that gives the term structure movement to which the portfolio is most exposed immunisation techniques can be based on choosing ancillary assets that ensure that the portfolio directional derivative is zero or as close to zero as possible this generalises approaches based on factor models of the term structure the analysis is applied to both continuous and discrete time

duration measures immunization and utility maximization abstract this paper explores the conditions under which a risk averse investor behaves like an immunizer in choosing the maturity structure of a balance sheet the setting is similar to grove s study in that the liabilities are assumed fixed but differs in the assumed evolution of interest rates m a grove on duration and the optimal maturity structure of the balance sheet bell journal of economics and management science 5 1974 696 709 it transpires that the circumstances under which a risk averse investor behave like an immunizer are not as limited as concluded in grove s study the model thus explains the extensive use of immunization by the business community

a risk minimizing strategy for portfolio immunization consider a fixed income portfolio whose duration is equal to the length of a given investment horizon it is shown that there is a lower limit on the change in the end ofhorizon value of the portfolio resulting from any given change in the structure of interest rates this lower limit is the product of two terms of which one is a function of the interest rate change only and the other depends only on the structure of the portfolio consequently this second term provides a measure of immunization risk if this measure is minimized the exposure of the portfolio to any interest rate change is the lowest the traditional theory of immunization as formalized by fisher and weil 6 defines the conditions under which the value of an investment in a bond portfolio is protected against changes in the level of interest rates the specific assumptions of this theory are that the portfolio is valued at a fixed horizon date that there are no cash inflows or outflows within the horizon and that interest rates change only by a parallel shift in the forward rates under these assumptions a portfolio is said to be immunized if its value at the end of the horizon does not fall below the target value where the target value is defined as the portfolio value at the horizon date under the scenario of no change in the forward rates the main result of this theory is that immunization is achieved if the duration of the portfolio is equal to the length of the horizon the assumption that interest rates can only change by a parallel shift that is by the same amount for all maturities has been the subject of considerable concern bierwag 1 2 bierwag and kaufman 3 khang 7 and others have postulated alternative models of interest rate behaviors each of these specifications implies a different measure of duration with immunization attained if this duration measure is equal to the horizon length a limitation of this approach is that the portfolio is protected only against the particular type of interest rate change assumed in a more recent development cox et al 5 brennan and schwartz 4 and others have investigated immunization conditions when interest rates are governed by a continuous process consistent with a market equilibrium depending on the specilfication of the interest rate process there is a duration like measure possibly multidimensional as in brennan and schwartz such that the portfolio is immunized if a proper value of this measure is maintained this assumes a continuous rebalancing of the portfolio again immunization is achieved only if interest rate changes conform to the specific process assumed in this paper we wish to pursue a different approach if it turned out that the

post conflict transitions an overview in the two to five years immediately following end of conflicts united nations un peacekeeping operations have succeeded in maintaining peace while income and consumption growth rates have been higher than normal and recovery on key education and health indicators has been possible aid also has been super effective in promoting recovery not only by financing physical infrastructure but also by helping in the monetary reconstruction of post conflict economies however sustaining these short term gains was met with two difficult challenges first long term sustainability of peace and growth hinges primarily on the ability of post conflict societies to develop institutions for the delivery of public goods which in turn depends on the capacity of post conflict elites to overcome an entrenched culture of political fragmentation and form stable national coalitions beyond their immediate ethnic or regional power bases second after catch up growth runs its course high levels of aid can lead to overvalued real currencies at a time when growth requires a competitive exchange rate and economic diversification successful peace building will therefore require that these political and economic imperatives of post conflict transitions be accounted for in the design of un peacekeeping operations as well as the aid regime

an analysis of bank loan rate indexation this paper examines the economic rationale for the use of bank loan commitments and the effect on the allocation of bank credit of indexing the loan rate offered through the commitment to the prime a simple model of the loan market is constructed and used to examine the effect changes in loan demand and the cost of bank funds have on the allocation of bank credit under indexation it is shown that indexing implies changes in the relative cost of borrowing for certain groups of bank customers for nonprime customers an increase in the cost of bank funds results in a decline in the relative cost of borrowing under commitments the pattern of commitment use is found to be consistent with the predictions of the model recent surveys have found that the majority of commercial and industrial loans are made under pre existing loan commitments these surveys also find that for most commercial and industrial loans the interest rate is tied or indexed to the prime rate although indexing loan rates is widespread there has been little theoretical or empirical work on the effect of this pricing scheme on the allocation of bank credit the paucity of research in this area is surprising considering the frequency with which indexed contracts are used and the current controversy surrounding the use of the prime as an index 2 the purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the effect of indexed loan rates on the intertemporal allocation of bank credit a simple model of the loan market is constructed and used to examine the effect changes in the cost of bank funds and changes in loan demand have on the allocation of credit under indexation use of this model demonstrates that indexed contracts do not result in an efficient allocation in the sense that the resulting allocation does not replicate the allocation obtained with complete contingent contracts finally the model is tested empirically using data on commitment use from the quarterly survey of the terms of commercial bank lending it is shown that indexing

single factor duration models in a discrete general equilibrium framework single factor duration models sfdms for valuing debt securities have gained rapid acceptance by bond practitioners in recent years but slower acceptance by academics in large measure the slower academic acceptance reflects the lack of a rigorously developed underlying economic or financial theoretic base partially as a result some sfdms have undesirable behavioral characteristics foremost among these is that they appear to be inconsistent with accepted general equilibrium conditions this paper has two purposes the first is to construct explicitly the theoretical underpinnings of the model and the second is to develop the conditions under which the model does satisfy general equilibrium conditions this is done in sections i and ii respectively

designing an immunized portfolio is m squared the key abstract the theoretical and empirical properties of m squared a measure of cash flow dispersion used in designing duration hedged portfolios are examined contrary to prior research minimizing m squared is not independent of the stochastic process and the minimum m squared portfolio is a bullet only under a specific convexity condition derived in the paper using a data base of default free government of canada bonds to set up minimum m squared duration matching portfolios we find that the convexity property does not hold in general and that minimum m squared portfolios fail to hedge as effectively as portfolios including a bond maturing on the horizon date

cycles and chaos in a socialist economy abstract this paper deals with the dynamics of a continuous piecewise linear model of a socialist economy the model has hicksian type nonlinearities it is a linear model with ceilings and floors although the model is quite simple it produces a variety of different new phenomena in addition to stable cycles appearing in simonovits 1991b we demonstrate chaotic and quasi periodic behavior we investigate how the dynamics of the model depends on the control parameters and encounter border crossing bifurcations a rather new type of local bifurcation

dispersion measures as immunization risk measures the quadratic and linear cash flow dispersion measures m 2 and n are two immunization risk measures designed to build immunized bond portfolios this paper generalizes these two measures by showing that any dispersion measure is an immunization risk measure and therefore it sets up a tool to be used in empirical testing each new measure is derived from a different set of shocks changes on the term structure of interest rates and depends on the corresponding subset of worst shocks consequently a criterion for choosing appropriate immunization risk measures is to take those developed from the most reasonable sets of shocks and the associated subset of worst shocks and then select those that work best empirically adopting this approach this paper then explores both numerical examples and a short empirical study on the spanish bond market in the mid 1990s to show that measures between linear and quadratic are the most appropriate and amongst them the linear measure has the best properties this confirms previous studies on us and canadian markets that maturityconstrained duration matched portfolios also have good empirical behavior 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

inventories in a dynamic macro model with flexible prices this paper presents a disequilibrium macro model with inventories rational expectations and flexible prices it is found that less than full employment equilibria are possible even highly likely in the intermediate term and that wage reductions will cause employment to drop increasing aggregate demand will raise employment only if it is done gradually on a technical level we have multiple switching lines disconnected regimes and a connected equilibrium set which borders on a switching iline and otherwise lies in a single region

immunization derived from a polynomial duration vector in the spanish bond market abstract this paper focuses on the spanish government debt market in an attempt to evaluate the immunization performance of the polynomial duration model of chambers and carleton chambers d r carleton w t 1988 a generalized approach to duration in chen a h ed research in finance vol 7 jai press greenwich pp 163 181 in default free and option free fixed income portfolios and to ascertain whether traditional convexity is an earnings generating element empirical tests show that three constraints namely those related to the level slope and curvature of term structure shifts are necessary to guarantee a return close to the target the only exception to this rule is found in portfolios including an asset that matures near the horizon date in which classical immunization performs properly

using linear and goal programming to immunize bond portfolios abstract bierwag and khang s 1979 model of immunizing a portfolio of default free government bonds is expanded here to include default grade corporate bonds the immunizing equation is found to be slightly different both linear and goal programming are shown to be alternative techniques for identifying an investor s optimal immunizing portfolio

variable rate debt instruments and corporate debt policy sustained high rate of inflation has led to the creation of debt instruments with variable interest rate the availability of these debt instruments presents management with the problem of the choice of the optimal debt portfolio this paper deals with this problem assuming a given and optimal debt to equity ratio given expected monetary value maximization an efficient frontier is derived in terms of the expected net income and probability of bankruptcy where net income is defined as operating income minus debt repayment this efficient frontier is shown to be also mean variance efficient it is also shown that in most cases the optimal debt portfolio includes more than one debt instrument in other words the firm will avoid the policy of minimizing the expected cost of its debt repayments or the policy of minimizing the costs of bankruptcy the optimal solution itself is affected by market variables like the relative expected cost of different debt instruments and by firm specific variables like the variability of its operating income stream and the covariance between the operating income and the debt repayments

disequilibrium dynamics with inventories and anticipatory price setting this paper studies the sequence of short run quantity constrained equilibria of a model with a single storable output labor and money the durability of output gives rise to inventory fluctuations which influence the course of the equilibria attained one special feature of interest is the assumption that prices are not at the level which would equilibrate all markets if there were no stochastic shocks to the economy with prices frozen at this level the nature of the realized shocks determines the type of disequilibrium realized and the unintended component of inventory change the analysis concentrates on two questions what is the statistical nature of the process governing the real wage output employment and inventories and is it possible to test this model against the alternative hypothesis that prices are continually flexible even after the shocks have disturbed the system we find that although these theories are similar in their qualitative structure tests can be developed we also show how the frequencies of different types of quantity constrained equilibria vary with the stochastic specification this may shed some insight on why it is commonly believed that some types of disequilibrium phenomena have not been observed this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

immunization strategies for funding multiple liabilities a number of recent papers have shown that it is possible for an investor to immunize a portfolio of default and option free coupon bonds so that the return realized over a given planning period will never be less than that promised at the time the bonds were purchased in this way a future fixed dollar liability may be discharged with certainty by acquiring an asset portfolio with a market value equal to the present value of the liability and setting its appropriate duration equal to the time remaining to the date of discharge 1 however most investors have more than one liability to discharge in his seminal article in 1952 f m redington showed that a stream of liabilities may be immunized if an asset portfolio having the same present value as the liabilities is selected so that 1 its duration is equal to the duration of the liabilities and

inventory fluctuations in a disequilibrium macro model as fig i shows this pattern continues to hold with remarkable fidelity over the postwar period as well notice that stock levels tend to peak during recessions shaded areas and to trough shortly after recessions while the stock sales ratio tends to peak during the latter part of recessions and to trough during expansions given the huge role played by stocks in business fluctuations 1 it is surprising that so little theoretical attention is directed toward improving our understanding of the timing of stock and stock sales ratio movements 2 the purpose of this paper is to offer a theoretical model which is consistent with the observed cyclical behaviour of stocks and the stock sales ratio the present model has firms forming sales expectations and then producing enough output if possible to cover the expected sales and to maintain a given stock expected sales ratio trade takes place out of equilibrium and inaccurate sales expectations or capacity constraints give rise to involuntary stock changes we find that stock holding may or may not be destabilising if stocks are not destabilising the familiar keynesian multiplier will obtain though the path of output after a shock will differ from the keynesian path if stocks are destabilising the system is found to enter a cycle with stocks and output ultimately rising and falling in a pattern much like that observed in actual cycles

floating rate notes and immunization as shown in several of those papers the appropriate immunizing duration is a function of the assumption regarding the stochastic process describing the man ner in which the term structure of interest rates changes the theory has been well developed for ordinary bonds this paper extends the existing literature on duration and immunization to a different type of security the floating rate note the floating rate note frn is a debt security in which coupon payments adjust according to changes in interest rates the coupons are closely tied to cur rent short term spot rates with the result that prices of frns are always at or near par value they became popular in this country in 1974 with a citieorp issue

fixed versus variable rate loans this paper discusses the nature of fixed and variable loan contracts and derives the conditions which determine the optimal quantity of each the results indicate that the payoff functions are quite different and dependent upon the project financed the appropriate conditions for the allocation of loan terms to a set of borrowers are then developed finally the analysis derives the optimal portfolio frontier and risk return trade off for the banking firm here it is demonstrated that the solution is unlikely to be at a point of zero interest rate risk

bank loan commitments and interest rate volatility bank loan commitments are examined in the context of option pricing models and a valuation formula is obtained the partial takedown phenomenon which is both distinctive and vexatious is considered in detail finally estimates of the value of u s bank loan commitments and their sensitivity to interest rate changes are provided

hedging interest rate risk with futures portfolios under term structure effects this study develops and tests a methodology for reducing interest rate risk in a fixed spot portfolio of assets and liabilities with default free cash flows a minimum variance hedge is constructed by adding a portfolio of financial futures to the spot portfolio theorems are given which establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of unique and zero variance hedges the risk reduction characteristics of the methodology are demonstrated by an empirical analysis unexpected interest rate fluctuations may have significant impact on the market value of both bond portfolios and interest sensitive institutions the early literature on this subject includes the seminal works of samuelson 27 redington 26 and wallas 29 all of whom consider the impact of unexpected interest rate changes on financial institutions briefly their results indicate that interest rate risk is minimized when the mean time of the assets and liabilities are equal assuming equal initial asset and liability values redington coined the term immunization to refer to the absence of interest rate risk the immunization solutions in their simplest form depend on the duration mean time of asset and liability cash flows the concept of duration was apparently developed independently by macaulay 22 and hicks 18 macaulay interested in the effective maturity of a bond defined duration as

miller s equilibrium shareholder leverage clienteles and optimal capital structure the purpose of this paper is twofold first we examine the individual portfolio decisions when income from stocks and bonds is taxed at different rates second a rationale for the existence of risky debt in the presence of leverage related costs and differential personal income taxation is provided previous studies on capital structure with differential personal income taxation have ignored either the portfolio risk consideration and or the possibility of losing personal and corporate interest tax shields due to insufficient taxable earnings e g 8 2 3 14 13 6 7 1 9 19 20 21 23 in section i of this paper both the portfolio risk consideration and the possibility of losing personal and corporate interest tax shields are explicitly introduced this enables us to provide a rationale for the shareholder leverage clientele phenomenon within a mean variance framework we also demonstrate a non corner solution for the optimal corporate capital structure in a tax environment similar to that of miller s debt and taxes 14 in sections ii and iii of this paper miller s world is further modified to include risky debt and the attendant costs we re examine and synthesize recent studies on the theory of optimal capital structure which have appeared since the publication of debt and taxes e g 4 6 7 13 19 20

bank income taxes and interest rate risk management a note banks and other financial institutions are concerned with the management of their interest rate risk in the frictionless markets of most finance theory however one interest rate risk management policy is just as good as another hence the finance literature does not provide convincing reasons for managers to want to control interest rate risk consequently the literature has provided little guidance on what to control how far to go with this control or on how to explain differences in interest rate risk exposure among banks given frictionless markets shareholder indifference to the bank s interest rate risk policy plus management s preference to reduce risk could lead to policies that reduce or eliminate exposure to interest rate risk i e to immunization strategies however if part of the reason for the existence of banks is the provision of maturity intermediation services managers who avoid exposure to interest rate risk are likely to come out second best to managers who choose asset and liability portfolios that do expose the bank s shareholders to this risk in this note we develop and analyze a model of bank decisions in which tax considerations induce banks to control interest rate risk in the u s banks have many opportunities to shield current income against federal and state taxation foreign tax credits investment tax credits and investment in tax exempt securities are three examples the tax position of a bank can be thought of as a stock of nonsaleable tax shields usable in the current or in future years the tax shields are an asset and if the bank s income falls below some level then the value of that asset will be reduced either by the loss of tax shielding opportunities or by the postponement of their realization 2 this note treats the bank tax position similarly to the models discussed by brennan and schwartz 2 miller 8 deangelo and masulis 4 and kim 6 however our interest is in the effect of tax shields on risk taking by financial institutions rather than a concern with capital structure decisions 3

adaptive expectations and perfect foresight in a nonlinear metzlerian model of the inventory cycle it has long been known that the motions of aggregate inventory investment are an important facet of the business cycle see e g blinder and maccini 1991 some elementary insights into the dynamic feedback effects between inventories production and sales were provided by metzler 1941 in a small theoretical model the present note adopts his framework but seeks to overcome the limitation of its linear specifications our basic idea corresponds to the concept of a flexible inventory accelerator while metzler postulated that desired inventory investment in discrete time is equal to the gap between desired and actual stocks of inventories some later studies have introduced a constant proportionality factor for the adjustment of inventories here we go one step further and hypothesize a variable stock adjustment speed as it turns out fast adjustments in a vicinity of the stationary equilibrium cause local instability but if for

war signals a theory of trade trust and conflict we construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter ethnic trust and trade the model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups inter ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group since conflict disrupts trade the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time transmitting them to the next generation the theory bears a set of testable predictions first war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs second the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode third accidental conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts a war trap the incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers fostering inter ethnic trade and human capital and shifting beliefs coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects

a method for strategic asset liability management with an application to the federal home loan bank of new york strategic asset liability management is a primary concern in today s banking environment in this paper we present a methodology to assist in the process of asset liability selection in a stochastic interest rate environment in our approach a quadratic optimizer is embedded in a simulation model and used to generate patterns of dividends market value and duration of capital for randomly generated interest rate scenarios this approach can be used to formulate test and refine asset liability strategies we present results of applying this methodology to data from the federal home loan bank of new york

does an unstable keynesian unemployment equilibrium in a non walrasian dynamic macroeconomic model imply chaos simonovits 1982 introduced a non walrasian dynamic macromodel which is based on the disequilibrium model with inventory dynamics due to honkapohja and ito 1980 this model describes transactions on two markets one market for labor and one market for goods and contains five parameters obviously there is an equilibrium which is the so called keynesian unemployment equilibrium point for suitable choices of the parameters this equilibrium point is locally stable and according to simonovits 1982 the keynesian unemployment equilibrium point is also globally stable i e the trajectories of all initial values converge to the equilibrium point for many parameter values the equilibrium point is unstable this is in fact the case when the product of the two eigenvalues at the equilibrium point is greater than 1 simonovits 1982 conjecture says if the keynesian unemployment equilibrium point is unstable then there is chaos first we recall some definitions of chaos we restrict our attention to systems whose trajectories are bounded a first definition is the following a system is chaotic if there exist infinitely many periodic points with different period and if there is an uncountable set of aperiodic points this kind of chaos is nowadays called li yorke chaos see li and yorke 1975 and diamond 1976 before turning to a second definition we need the notion of sensitive dependence on initial values a system may be said to have sensitive dependence on initial values if we can find with probability p where 0 p 1 a point x such that for every open neighborhood u of x there is a point y in u such that the trajectories of x and y will not be close

immunizing default free bond portfolios with a duration vector dissatisfaction occasionally has been expressed with traditional measures of duration for immunization on conceptual grounds however more elegant duration measures have not been found to be superior to the traditional ones in empirical tests of immunization efficacy under the assumption that the term structure of continuously compounded interest rates can be expressed as a polynomial chambers and carleton 1981 demonstrate that the finite and noninstantaneous return of a default free bond can be expressed as a vector product of a duration vector and a shift vector this study derives immunization strategies from the model and tests them the results of the portfolio tests indicate that the tradi tional duration approach of macaulay provides enhanced immunization relative to matu rity approaches or naive approaches however the duration vector approach produces further improvements

duration for bonds with default risk abstract does approximating duration estimates by ignoring default risk lead to error in the two major duration applications measuring interest rate price elasticity and immunization we derive a general expression for duration in the presence of default risk based on jonkhart s term structure model on the term structure of interest rates and the risk of default journal of banking and finance 3 253 262 1979 extended to encompass risk aversion the model includes terms for default probabilities and default payoffs in each period as well as for a delay between the occurrence of default and the final default payoff our main conclusion is that practical duration applications involving bonds with default risk must employ duration measures adjusted for default risk

when can you immunize a bond portfolio abstract this paper presents a condition equivalent to the existence of a riskless shadow asset that guarantees a minimum return when the asset prices are convex functions of interest rates or other state variables we apply this lemma to immunize default free and option free coupon bonds and reach three main conclusions first we give a solution to an old puzzle why do simple duration matching portfolios work well in empirical studies of immunization even though they are derived in a model inconsistent with equilibrium and shifts on the term structure of interest rates are not parallel as assumed second we establish a clear distinction between the concepts of immunized and maxmin portfolios third we develop a framework that includes the main results of this literature as special cases next we present a new strategy of immunization that consists in matching duration and minimizing a new linear dispersion measure of immunization risk

immunization as a maxmin strategy the purpose of this paper is to broaden the analysis of immunization when it is viewed as amaxmin strategy several results are demonstrated which provide a new interpretation of maxmin strategy by using a more general theory of lagrangians we clarify the exact assumptions required for the duration strategy and the maxmin strategy to be equivalent in a world with taxes it is shown that in a world with taxes the immunization strategy requires the portfolio to satisfy a constraint about the bond to be included in addition to the duration constraint

on the determinants of corporate hedging finance theory indicates that hedging increases firm value by reducing expected taxes expected costs of financial distress or other agency costs this paper provides evidence on these hypotheses using survey data on firm s use of forwards futures swaps and options combined with computstat data on firm characteristics of 169 firms in the sample 104 firms use hedging instruments in 1986 the data suggest that firms which hedge face more convex tax functions have less coverage of fixed claims are larger have more growth options in their investment opportunity set and employ fewer hedging substitutes

buffer stocks and naive expectations in a non walrasian dynamic macromodel stability cyclicity and chaos in their pioneering work honkapohja ito 1980 constructed a non walrasian macromodel with inventory dynamics some of their assumptions are modified in this paper e g the expected demand for goods is defined by previous rather than actual demand the modified model yields results which are both similar and dissimilar to those of honkapohja and ito for example the keynesian unemployment equilibrium remains invariant but the corresponding stability condition becomes milder the chaotic behavior of the unstable systems is also analyzed