identifying domestic and imported core inflation this paper estimates core inflation in norway identified as that component of inflation that has no long run effect on gdp the model distinguishes explicitly between domestic and imported core inflation the results show that domestic core inflation is the main component of cpi inflation however cpi inflation misrepresents core inflation during some periods the differences are well explained by the other shocks identified in the model in particular the oil price shocks of the 1970s when norway imported inflation and the negative non core supply shocks of the late 1980s which pushed inflation up temporarily relative to core inflation

testing for nonlinear dependence in daily foreign exchange rates the purpose of this article is to investigate whether daily changes in five major foreign exchange rates contain any nonlinearities although the data contain no linear correlation evidence indicates the presence of substantial nonlinearity in a multiplicative rather than additive form further examination reveals that a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model can explain a large part of the nonlinearities for all five exchange rates copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

a simplified jump process for common stock returns the specification of a statistical distribution which accurately models the behavior of stock returns continues to be a salient issue in financial economics with the introduction of arithmetic and geometric brownian motion models much attention has recently focused on a poisson mixture of distributions as an appropriate specification of stock returns for example see 12 3 8 10 5 and 1 consistent with empirical evidence these models yield leptokurtic security return distributions and furthermore the specification has much economic intuition in particular one may always decompose the total change in stock price into normal and abnormal components the normal change may be due to variation in capitalization rates a temporary imbalance between supply and demand or the receipt of any other information which causes marginal price changes this component is modelled as a lognormal diffusion process the abnormal change is due to the receipt of any information which causes a more than marginal change in the price of the stock and is usually modeled as a poisson process

answering the skeptics yes standard volatility models do provide accurate forecasts a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility using arch and stochastic volatility models while most of these studies have documented highly significant in sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence traditional ex post forecast evaluation criteria suggest that the models provide seemingly poor volatility forecasts contrary to this contention we show that volatility models produce strikingly accurate interdaily forecasts for the latent volatility factor that would be of interest in most financial applications new methods for improved ex post interdaily volatility measurements based on high frequency intradaily data are also discussed

the message in weekly exchange rates in the european monetary system mean reversion conditional heteroscedasticity and jumps weekly rates of the european monetary system ems vis a vis the deutsche mark from april 1979 to march 1991 are modeled as a combined ma 1 garch 1 1 jump process the moving average ma part accounts for mean reversion required for the rates to stay inside the target zone the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch part accounts for changing volatility whereas the jump process models parity changes and other erratic movements using an adjusted pearson chi squared goodness of fit test we find similar results for the bernoulli and the poisson jump processes in those cases in which the bernoulli normal distribution does not pass the goodness of fit test a mixture of three normals does finally the ma 1 garch 1 1 bernoulli jump models are jointly estimated assuming a constant contemporaneous correlation matrix for the disturbances and a common jump probability for all the currencies

two sided markets with pecuniary and participation externalities the existing literature on two sided markets addresses participation externalities but so far it has neglected pecuniary externalities between competing platforms in this paper we build a model that incorporates both externalities in our setup differentiated platforms compete in advertising and offer consumers a service free of charge such as a tv program that is financed through advertising we show that advertising can exhibit the properties of a strategic substitute or complement surprisingly there exist cases in which platforms benefit from market entry moreover we show that from a welfare point of view perfect competition is not always desirable

long run prices of primary commodities and oil prices acutely volatile movements in primary commodity prices have drawn considerable interest from empirical researchers exports of these commodities account for the bulk of export earnings of developing countries the traditional demand based framework was unable to explain the marked deterioration in these prices during the 1980s this paper tries to ascertain the role played by real oil prices in explaining the extremely volatile movements in real prices of primary commodities by taking into account oil price shocks over the period 1973 1996 using monthly data real primary commodity prices and real oil prices are cointegrated additionally the error in the cointegrating relation stimulates real commodity price adjustment not real oil price adjustment

bivariate garch estimation of the optimal commodity futures hedge six different commodities are examined using daily data over two futures contract periods cash and futures prices for all six commodities are found to be well described as martingales with near integrated garch innovations bivariate garch models of cash and futures prices are estimated for the same six commodities the optimal hedge ratio ohr is then calculated as a ratio of the conditional covariance between cash and futures to the conditional variance of futures the estimated ohrs reveal that the standard assumption of a time invariant ohr is inappropriate for each commodity the estimated ohr path appears non stationary which has important implications for hedging strategies

market provision of broadcasting a welfare analysis this paper presents a theory of the market provision of broadcasting and uses it to address the nature of market failure in the industry advertising levels may be too low or too high depending on the nuisance cost to viewers the substitutability of programs and the expected benefits to advertisers from contacting viewers market provision may allocate too few or too many resources to programming and these resources may be used to produce programs of the wrong type monopoly ownership may produce higher social surplus than competitive ownership and the ability to price programming may reduce social surplus

oil price shocks and real gdp growth empirical evidence for some oecd countries this study assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialized countries multivariate var analysis is carried out using both linear and non linear models the latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature namely the asymmetric scaled and net specifications evidence of a non linear impact of oil prices on real gdp is found in particular oil price increases are found to have an impact on gdp growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price declines with the latter being statistically insignificant in most cases among oil importing countries oil price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but japan moreover the effect of oil shocks on gdp growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in the sample with the uk being negatively affected by an oil price increase and norway benefiting from it

sequential location games we study location games where market entry is costly and occurs sequentially and where consumers are nonuniformly distributed over the unit interval we show that for certain classes of densities including monotone and under some additional restrictions hump shaped and u shaped ones equilibrium locations can be determined independently of when they are occupied our analysis reveals a number of peculiarities of the uniform distribution extensions of the model allow for price competition and advertisement in media markets winner take all competition trade offs between profits in the short and the long run and firms operating multiple outlets

tv wars exclusive content and platform competition in pay tv the article examines incentives for exclusive distribution of premium television programming static analysis shows that a vertically integrated operator with premium programming always supplies this content to the rival distributor using per subscriber fees to soften competition in a dynamic setting with switching costs exclusivity confers a market share advantage benefiting the operator in the future under certain conditions this future benefit outweighs the opportunity cost of forgone wholesale fees making exclusivity the preferred choice alternative dynamic mechanisms are explored identifying essential features the analysis explains the observed incidence of content exclusivity in pay tv and provides guidance for policy makers

exchange rate bands with price inertia this problem by committing member states to taking suitable action to prevent cross parities from straying outside some given publicly announced range and williamson s proposal for target zones was explicitly aimed at preventing exchange rate misalignment among the principal industrial countries subsequently the louvre accord struck between members of the group of seven in i 987 involved unpublished commitments designed to constrain fluctuation between the u s dollar and the currencies of its major trading partners funabashi i988 given the obvious practical importance of understanding the implications of such policy commitments for the economy in general and the exchange rate in particular it is perhaps not surprising that the seminal work by krugman i 988 i989 on exchange rate determination within a band has aroused considerable interest under the assumption that the velocity of money follows a brownian motion process he obtains an explicit solution for the exchange rate as a function of the fundamental which shows that the presence of a commitment to intervene so as to defend the band exerts a stabilising influence on the exchange rate even before any such intervention takes place in their contribution to this emerging literature froot and obstfeld i989 note that krugman s minimalist stochastic specification can be derived from a monetary model of exchange rates where prices are perfectly flexible and full employment prevails where international interest differentials match expected exchange rate changes and the exchange rate preserves purchasing power parity cf mussa 1976 and they show that the behaviour of the rate inside a currency band can be obtained using results on regulated brownian motion processes cf harrison i985 using the same framework and techniques flood and garber i989 indicate how the rate will respond to noninfinitesimal intervention and svensson i 989 examines the effect of bandwidth on the stochastic behaviour of interest rates klein i989 considers the effects of uncertainty about the width of the band

kalman filter approach to estimate the demand for international reserves a few studies have provided empirical support for the fact that the demand for international reserves experienced structural instability in 1973 and 1979 due to a change in exchange rate system and oil price shocks thus under the current managed float due to exchange rate and oil price fluctuations coefficient estimates could be time dependent after showing that indeed estimated coefficients are time dependent the kalman filter estimation method is employed and the reserve demand function for 19 industrial countries estimated the kalman filter approach incorporates the time varying properties of coefficients estimates

electoral competition with informed and uninformed voters i present a model of electoral competition in which candidates raise campaign contributions by choosing policies that benefit interest groups and then expend those contributions to influence voters who are uninformed about the policies informed voters however vote based on those policies so candidates face a trade off between choosing a policy to generate funds to attract the uninformed vote and choosing a policy to attract the informed vote electoral equilibria are characterized for two categories of policies particularistic and collective in the case of particularistic policies the equilibrium policies of the candidates are separated if the proportion of uninformed voters is sufficiently high and the degree of separation is an increasing function of that proportion the model is extended to include the public financing of elections and incumbency advantages for the case of collective policies the candidates locate at the median of the ideal points of the informed voters and contributions are zero

competition of newspapers and the location of political parties in this paper we suggest a model for an analysis of how newspapers and political parties determine their ideological orientation and how both decisions depend on each other quite naturally dissemination of information plays an important role the model is set up as a two stage game because elements of horizontal as well as vertical product differentiation are present in this model location patterns in ideology space exhibit in general neither maximal nor minimal differentiation although we keep quite close to the downs model with information as the most important distinguishing feature furthermore the model shows by way of example that economic theory can be a useful tool to investigate issues which are central to communication science

paying positive to go negative advertisers competition and media reports this paper analyzes a two sided market for news where two rival advertisers may pay a media outlet to conceal negative information about the quality of their own product paying positive to avoid negative and or to disclose negative information about the quality of their competitor s product paying positive to go negative we show that competition in the product market does not necessarily prevent the emergence of commercial media bias whether or not competing advertisers end up having negative consequences on news accuracy ultimately depends on the extent of correlation in the quality of their products the lower the correlation the higher the expected accuracy of the media outlet s reports these findings provide a rationale to explain the observed differences in the extent of commercial media bias across seemingly similar industries or products within the same media market the results are robust to the presence of multiple media outlets and to asymmetries between the advertisers overall the paper provides theoretical insights for media regulators and for the empirical literature examining the link between advertising and news contents

cyclical and causal patterns of inflation and gdp growth empirical foundations for the view that high inflation impairs gdp growth are examined using annual data for 115 countries over the period 1960 1995 taking into account country heterogeneity and time specific symmetric shocks as well as endogeneity of inflation and dynamics of gdp growth dynamic panel data models of the effects of inflation on growth are estimated no evidence is found supporting the view that inflation is in general harmful to gdp growth on the other hand there is a negative correlation between contemporaneous intra country inflation and growth for periods characterized by positive oil price shocks

press advertising and the ascent of the pensee unique the press industry depends in a crucial way on the possibility of financing an important fraction of its activities by advertising receipts we show that this induces the editors of newspapers to moderate in several cases the political message they display to their readers compared with the political opinions they would have expressed otherwise to this end we consider a three stage game in which editors select sequentially their political image the price of their newspaper and the advertising tariff they oppose to the advertisers the intuition of the result lies in the fact that editors have to sell tasteless political messages to their readers in order to sell a larger audience to the advertisers

news consumption and media bias bias in the market for news is well documented recent research in economics explains the phenomenon by assuming that consumers want to read watch news that is consistent with their tastes or prior beliefs rather than the truth the present paper builds on this idea but recognizes that i besides biased consumers there are also conscientious consumers whose sole interest is in discovering the truth and ii consistent with reality media bias is constrained by the truth these two factors were expected to limit media bias in a competitive setting our results reveal the opposite we find that media bias may increase when there are more conscientious consumers however this increased media bias does not necessarily hurt conscientious consumers who may be able to recover more information from multiple media outlets the more the outlets are biased we discuss the practical implications of these findings for media positioning media pricing media planning and the targeting of advertising

global output growth and volatility spillovers this article examines discernable patterns of real gross domestic product gdp growth co movements across 29 countries using consistent time series data 1912 2008 of these countries only 12 are found to form three statistically significant groupings i e g6 six organization for economic co operation and development oecd european countries g4 four anglo saxon countries and g2 two major asian countries one may then conclude that inter alia geographical proximity cultural ties and the level of socio economic and financial ties among countries determine the global systematic co movements of growth rates our results indicate that any recession in the us initially engulfs other anglo saxon countries as well as g6 and g2 countries before exerting its adverse knock on effects to the rest of the world a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity mgarch model is also used to examine the transmission of gdp growth across these three groups and their corresponding vol

the crash of ʼ87 was it expected the evidence from options markets transactions prices of s p 500 futures options over 1985 1987 are examined for evidence of expectations prior to october 1987 of an impending stock market crash first it is shown that out of the money puts became unusually expensive during the year preceding the crash second a model is derived for pricing american options on jump diffusion processes with systematic jump risk the jump diffusion parameters implicit in options prices indicate that a crash was expected and that implicit distributions were negatively skewed during october 1986 to august 1987 both approaches indicate no strong crash fears during the 2 months immediately preceding the crash attempts to explain what caused the stock market crashes around the world in october 1987 have suffered from the paucity of major economic developments occurring around that time that could have triggered the crashes shifting expectations regarding monetary policy foreign investors fears of a dollar decline increasing riskiness of assets none of these appeared major enough if present at all to explain the magnitude of the crashes and although portfolio insurance strategies could conceivably magnify the effects of a jump in fundamentals the initiating jump in fundamentals appears to be lacking

on corporate governance a study of proxy contests abstract this paper examines a sample of firms experiencing proxy contests for seats on their board of directors dissident shareholders usually fail to obtain a majority of board seats nevertheless they capture some seats via mechanisms such as cumulative voting in over half of the sample contests regardless of proxy contest outcome positive and statistically significant share price performance is associated with the contest that finding is predicted by the standard economic analysis of proxy contests in which the challenges benefit shareholders by improving corporate performance the finding runs counter to the claim of berle 1962 that the economists view of proxy contests is a wholly imaginary picture a portion of the positive share price changes taking place in the early stages of some proxy contests is not permanent however and as suggested by manne 1962 is at least partially attributable to temporary increases in the market value of the vote attached to corporate shares

mass media and special interest groups abstract media revenues are an important determinant of media behavior it is generally accepted that news coverage depends not only on the preferences of media consumers but also on the preferences of advertisers or subsidizing groups however existing models reach the opposite conclusions about the relationship between the profitability of advertising and media bias we present a theoretical model that reconciles these results the model shows that the sign of the effect of marginal costs of production or marginal advertising revenues on the level of distortion in news coverage depends on complementarity or substitutability between media bias and audience size for an interest group the existence of a budget constraint for an interest group and media outlets reliance on subscription in addition to advertising revenues

distributional predictability between commodity spot and futures evidence from nonparametric causality in quantiles tests abstract unbiasedness and informational efficiency of futures markets under different market conditions is a claim that still remains unsettled in the theory of non arbitrage and asset pricing and in empirics as well this study investigates this claim using a novel causality in quantile model of balcilar et al 2016 for two energy commodities crude oil and natural gas and two precious metals gold and silver the model estimates causalities in mean and variance between spot and futures market in a time varying context conditioning on the states of the markets represented by the quantiles of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable the causality in return is asymmetric and unidirectional from futures to spot market for all commodities that means the predictability of the futures market due to its informational efficiency is strong in the normal market and declines when the spot market enters into extreme bearish and bullish conditions the causality in variance is bi directional in the normal to bull markets except for natural gas where it is unidirectional from futures to spot only it is a confirmation of the risk management and price discovery role of futures market lack of causality in the bear market entails some kind of disconnectedness between the spot and futures markets in a bad market where intervention is called for from the exchange and regulators to restore stability in the spot and futures market dynamics although economic uncertainty is found to have no impact on the causality in mean except gold however the causality in variance is influenced in the case of gold and crude this is a kind of reaffirmation of the fact that under economic uncertainty futures contracts are used for hedging under different market conditions however the causality between commodity spot and futures are resilient to exchange rate

conditional jump dynamics in stock market returns this article develops a new conditional jump model to study jump dynamics in stock market returns we propose a simple filter to infer ex post the distribution of jumps this permits construction of the shock affecting the time t conditional jump intensity and is the main input into an autoregressive conditional jump intensity model the model allows the conditional jump intensity to be time varying and follows an approximate autoregressive moving average arma form the time series characteristics of 72 years of daily stock returns are analyzed using the jump model coupled with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch specification of volatility we find significant time variation in the conditional jump intensity and evidence of time variation in the jump size distribution the conditional jump dynamics contribute to good in sample and out of sample fits to stock market volatility and capture the rally often observed in equity markets following a significant downturn

government control of the media abstract we present a formal model of government control of the media to illuminate variation in media freedom across countries and over time media bias is greater and state ownership of the media more likely when the government has a particular interest in mobilizing citizens to take actions that further some political objective but are not necessarily in citizens individual best interest however the distinction between state and private media is smaller large advertising markets reduce media bias in both state and private media but increase the incentive for the government to nationalize private media media bias in state and private media markets diverge as governments become more democratic whereas media bias in democracies and autocracies converge as positive externalities from mobilization increase

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth revisited a dynamic panel data approach abstract this paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and gdp for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002 based on the income levels defined by the world bank the data are divided into four categories low income group lower middle income group upper middle income group and high income group we employ the gmm sys approach for the estimation of the panel var model in each of the four groups afterwards the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained we discover a in the low income group there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth b in the middle income groups lower and upper middle income groups economic growth leads energy consumption positively c in the high income group countries economic growth leads energy consumption negatively after further in depth analysis of energy related data the results indicate that in the high income group there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of co2 however in the upper middle income group countries after the energy crisis the energy efficiency declines and the release of co2 rises since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries

long run impacts of inflation across sectors in a small sample of countries this article investigates the long run effects of inflation on economic output for 10 sectors of the economy with a sample of 7 countries the analysis is done using long run restrictions in a vector autoregression and reports long run multipliers with bootstrapped confidence bands the results suggest that some sectors seem to be affected differently than others as well as significant heterogeneity across countries the results suggest the strongest effects in the low inflation countries germany and japan as has been found in similar studies in contrast to research using growth regressions the evidence suggests a positive long run effect of inflation on output

stochastic trends and jumps in ems exchange rates abstract in this paper we study the statistical properties of ems exchange rate returns our findings show that jumps time varying parameters and conditional leptokurtosis are pertinent features in the empirical distributions of ems exchange rate returns allowance for fat tails however tends to reduce the measured frequency of jumps in the distributions to more realistic proportions most successful in capturing the relevant features of ems exchange rate returns is a combined jump garch model with conditionally t distributed innovations jel f31

the impact of antitrust litigation on shareholder return the hypothesis that antitrust litigation will redistribute economic power is examined using an event study framework district and appellate court findings involving firms litigating antitrust issues and the telex v ibm case are examined the results indicated that shareholders of firms involved in the litigation experienced decreases increases in return when either court finding was unfavorable favorable the telex v ibm results indicated that the district court s finding against ibm resulted in significant positive abnormal returns for computer industry firms abnormal negative returns were also found in the period surrounding the appellate court reversal copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

mixed diffusion jump process modeling of exchange rate movements this study demonstrates that the mixed diffusion jump process is superior to the stable laws or a mixture of normals as a model of exchange rate changes for the british pound french franc and the we st german mark relative to the united states dollar the parameter value s for the mixed diffusion jump process are dependent on the monetary policy regime in force in the united states with the estimates for the franc and mark being intertemporally similar but different from the pound copyright 1988 by mit press

on jump processes in the foreign exchange and stock markets exchange rates exhibit systematic discontinuities even after allowingfor conditional heteroskedasticity in the diffusion process the results are much more significant in theforeign exchange market than in the stock market which suggests differences in the structure of these markets finally this jump component is shown to explain some of the empirically observed mispricings in the currency options market the objective of this article is to analyze and compare the empirical distribution of returns in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market there are a number of reasons why a better understanding of the stochastic processes driving prices in these markets would be useful many financial models rely heavily on the assumption of a particular stochastic process while relatively little attention is paid to the empirical fit of the postulated distribution as a result models like option pricing models are applied indiscriminately to various markets such as the stock market and the foreign exchange market when the underlying processes may be fundamentally different the foreign exchange market for instance is characterized by active exchange rate man

correlated jumps in crude oil and gasoline during the gulf war this article employs a bivariate poisson jump model to investigate the relationship between the volatility of crude oil and gasoline especially during the period of the gulf war we find that greater jumps occurring in crude oil returns will appear in gasoline returns at the same time but the magnitude of the co movements in volatility falls the covariance is relatively smaller in the second gulf war vs the first conflict the volatility of crude oil is of significantly high levels during periods of the war yet the volatility of gasoline is not as sensitive as crude oil particularly in the second conflict furthermore the jump that occurred by the war did not lead both spot prices to a high persistent level for a long period which fits the feature of the jump models all these findings are important to market traders and hedging strategies

media bias in china this paper examines whether and how market competition affected the political bias of government owned newspapers in china from 1981 to 2011 we measure media bias based on coverage of government mouthpiece content propaganda relative to commercial content we first find that a reform that forced newspaper exits reduced competition affected media bias by increasing product specialization with some papers focusing on propaganda and others on commercial content second lower level governments produce less biased content and launch commercial newspapers earlier eroding higher level governments political goals third bottom up competition intensifies the politico economic tradeoff leading to product proliferation and less audience exposure to propaganda

the adjustment of stock prices to information about inflation this paper analyzes the reaction of stock prices to the new information about inflation based on daily returns to the standard and poor s composite portfolio from 1953 78 it seems that the stock market reacts negatively to the announcement of unexpected inflation in the consumer price index c p i although the magnitude of the reaction is small it is interesting to note that the stock market seems to react at the time of announcement of the c p i approximately one month after the price data are collected by the bureau of labor statistics

the market for news we investigate the market for news under two assumptions that readers hold beliefs which they like to see confirmed and that newspapers can slant stories toward these beliefs we show that on the topics where readers share common beliefs one should not expect accuracy even from competitive media competition results in lower prices but common slanting toward reader biases on topics where reader beliefs diverge such as politically divisive issues however newspapers segment the market and slant toward extreme positions yet in the aggregate a reader with access to all news sources could get an unbiased perspective generally speaking reader heterogeneity is more important for accuracy in media than competition per se

the effect of private antitrust litigation on the stock market valuation of the firm the authors study the implications for shareholder wealth of interfirm antitrust litigation and how the costs of the dispute affect the propensity to settle upon filing defendants experience significant wealth losses that are ten million dollars larger than the wealth gains of plaintiffs financial distress behavioral constraints and follow on suits are sources of wealth leakage and influence settlement behavior since the threat of a monetary transfer has little power to explain either wealth effects or the likelihood of settlement the central concern of defendants may be the potential prohibition of profitable business practices copyright 1995 by american economic association

the probability distribution of foreign exchange price changes tests of candidate processes this study investigates empirically candidate processes for characterizing foreign exchange price changes measured over limited horizons extant empirical studies find distributions of exchange returns too long tailed and leptokurtic to satisfy normality four processes are investigated here because of their potential to model o bserved discontinuities in exchange rates and nonstationary sample moments as well as their economic appeal the results favor a mixed jump model for all six major trading currencies tested copyright 1988 by mit press

newspaper differentiation and investments in journalism the role of tax policy many countries levy reduced rate indirect taxes on newspapers with proclaimed policy goals of stimulating investment in journalism and ensuring low newspaper prices however by taking into account the fact that the media industry operates in two sided markets we find the paradoxical result that the consequences of a low tax regime might be quite the opposite we also show that the low tax regime tends to increase newspaper differentiation if the advertising market is relatively small the newspapers might invest too little in journalism and be too differentiated from a social point of view in this case a tax increase will be welfare enhancing

advertising competition and entry in media industries this paper presents a model of media competition with free entry when media platforms are financed both from advertising receipts and customers subscriptions we establish a relationship between the equilibrium levels of prices advertising and entry the welfare maximizing levels and the advertising technology under constant or increasing returns to scale in the audience size we find an excessive level of entry and an insufficient level of advertising we then extend the analysis along several dimensions the price as a strategic variable on the market for advertising free media platforms and the media quality dimension

advertising and media capture the case of climate change abstract this paper analyzes whether media capture by advertisers is a potential source of the divergence between the scientific consensus and public discourse about climate change i develop an objective measure of the tone of climate change coverage by creating an index that builds on gentzkow and shapiro 2010 using phrase frequency analysis to compare newspaper text with the un s ipcc reports and the heartland institute s skeptical response each of which are lengthy official reports with clear stances on climate change i also develop a measure of potential advertising from the auto industry using national shocks to advertising at the manufacturer level weighted by previous advertising at the newspaper level the empirical analysis shows that this potential advertising allows firms to capture newspapers within newspaper the potential for advertising from car manufacturers shifts the tone of coverage towards skepticism i also find suggestive evidence that potential advertising reduces the overall quantity of coverage of climate change

price structure in two sided markets evidence from the magazine industry we present and estimate a model of competition in a two sided market the market for magazine readership and advertising using data on magazines in germany we find evidence that magazines have properties of two sided markets the results are consistent with the perception that prices for readers are subsidized and that magazines make all their money from advertisers consistent with advertisers valuing readers more than readers value advertisements our results imply that higher demand on the reader side increases ad rates but that higher demand on the advertising side decreases cover prices

downs meets d aspremont and company convergence versus differentiation in politics and the media abstract media firms have incentives to differentiate their news products to soften price competition when consumers value cognitive consistency between the news they read and the policies they support politicians are induced to propose more polarized policies to conform to a polarized media landscape a stronger commercial motive or a weaker preference for editorial neutrality in the media exacerbates this effect and causes party policies to become more extreme we find that prices for news products are higher when consumers have a demand for cognitive consistency despite the fact that maximal product differentiation does not hold for media firms

the statistical and economic role of jumps in continuous time interest rate models this paper analyzes the role of jumps in continuous time short rate models i first develop a test to detect jump induced misspecification and using treasury bill rates find evidence for the presence of jumps second i specify and estimate a nonparametric jump diffusion model results indicate that jumps play an important statistical role estimates of jump times and sizes indicate that unexpected news about the macroeconomy generates the jumps finally i investigate the pricing implications of jumps jumps generally have a minor impact on yields but they are important for pricing interest rate options

the persistence of monopoly an investigation of the effectiveness of the united kingdom monopolies commission a sample of twenty eight markets investigated by the uk monopolies and mergers commission is taken and market share changes are analysed for subsequent erosion of dominance the evidence points to a modest erosion for leading firms but only rarely to a loss of leadership although there is no significant difference between the rates of decline for leading firms in the mmc sample and a control group the achievement of some erosion of dominance in markets where entry barriers were reduced may represent some limited success for competition policy