inefficient credit booms this paper studies the welfare properties of competitive equilibria in an economy with financial frictions hit by aggregate shocks in particular it shows that competitive financial contracts can result in excessive borrowing ex ante and excessive volatility ex post even though from a first best perspective the equilibrium always displays under borrowing from a second best point of view excessive borrowing can arise the inefficiency is due to the combination of limited commitment in financial contracts and the fact that asset prices are determined in a spot market this generates a pecuniary externality that is not internalized in private contracts the model provides a framework to evaluate preventive policies which can be used during a credit boom to reduce the expected costs of a financial crisis copyright 2008 wiley blackwell

rankings methodology for international comparisons of institutions and individuals an application to economics in australia and new zealand abstract the objectives of this paper are threefold first we critically survey and analyse the different methodologies that have been adopted in the rankings literature second using journal articles included in the econlit database and on the basis of two criteria one based on citations and the other on perceptions of journal quality we rank economics teaching departments in australia and new zealand for 1988 2002 and 1996 2002 and for individual academic economists for the periods 1988 2002 1988 1995 and 1996 2002 furthermore we identify individual star performers and recognize them in a designated hall of fame for 1988 2002 third our methodology enables us to make international comparisons on total and per capita bases previous multi country ranking studies in economics do not rank economics departments they provide rankings based on total publications in economics in universities regardless of whether the economists are in the economics departments or in other departments thus no rankings on per capita bases are provided we correct this shortcoming by providing total and per capita rankings and analysing the correlations between total and per capita rankings this is the first study to examine whether the size of the economics department matters with regard to productivity

credit supply and the housing boom an increase in credit supply driven by looser lending constraints in the mortgage market is the key force behind four empirical features of the housing boom before the great recession the unpreced

the austral plan in recent years several countries have experienced extremely rapid inflations but without total collapses of the national currencies argentina was one of those cases by mid 1985 the rate of price increase exceeded 30 percent per month however prices continued to be set in pesos and there remained a sizeable volume of short term nominal contracts the treatment of such inflations poses several questions what is the desirable speed of disinflation what mix of instruments can effectively act on prices without causing an excessive fall in real income how can prices be kept on a stable or moderately rising trend the austral plan announced in june 1985 combined fiscal measures with a price wage freeze and a monetary reform linked to a system for the conversion of debt contracts the program quite successfully managed the transition to a much lower inflation rate while real output recovered rapidly after an initial contraction still inflationary forces remained strong the problem of achieving a sustained stabilization proved quite difficult to solve this paper briefly describes the program and its effects with some references to current debates on stabilization policies see my 1986 study for full discussion and details

a revisionist perspective of european research in economics abstract the study by kalaitzidakis et al eur econom rev 113 1999a 1150 1168 hereafter kms continues to exert significant influence on the literature that evaluates the relative publication performance of european centres of research in economics the current paper argues that the methodology employed by kms is deficient and that it is not the methodology these authors intended to employ i utilise an improved approach to revise the original rankings that relied on publication output from 1991 to 1996 and to update the relevant findings using 1997 2002 data the revised rankings differ greatly from those reported by kms the results also suggest that there have been dramatic shifts in the relative ranking of the various european institutions over time as expected rankings are sensitive to the choice of journals considered however ranking sensitivity is considerably more pronounced with respect to changes in individual performance over time than to the group of journals used to measure performance

two to tango gender differences in the decisions to publish and coauthor i introduction there is a well developed mythology regarding the presence of old boy networks and their importance in explaining gender differences in labor market outcomes as articulated by saloner 1985 nonetheless aside from works such as simon and warner 1992 there is relatively little empirical evidence examining the impact of networks on market outcomes how these effects differ by gender and whether gender differences in network access change over time as women become more well represented in a profession the paucity of empirical evidence arises in part from the difficulty of measuring the presence of such networks prior work including that of saint paul 2001 and erickson and jacoby 2003 has found evidence that networks facilitate the adoption of team oriented work practices and information sharing that increase average worker productivity in management and professional jobs on the other hand studies such as that by marmaros and sacerdote 2002 have also found that women have less access to networks than their male counterparts in both private and public sector jobs which has been shown to yield gender differences in job placement and other labor market outcomes this article considers how gender differences in networks are manifested in a specific male dominated profession i e academic economists and in a specific work related outcome i e the decision to coauthor articles in which access to networks is likely to be important the analysis uses uniquely detailed individual and job level data for phd economists included in nearly four decades of american economic association aea membership to examine the role of networks on the joint decision to publish and coauthor the unique matching process of phd economists between academic and nonacademic jobs and within the hierarchy of academic departments along with the relative ease of observing joint research provide a rare opportunity to distinguish differential network access and measure joint production the results demonstrate the importance of networks in the production of research output and that new female entrants into a male dominated profession do not have equal access to these professional networks the results also provide evidence that women are able to plug into networks over time as the profession becomes more gender representative our study contributes to the literature on the role of networks in the labor market in several ways first the profession of academic economist is well suited to this study because it is made up of workers who produce a relatively homogenous output i e scholarly journal articles and that share a common set of job related tasks i e teaching research and service second the incidence of coauthorship is an observable outcome measure of network utilization a phenomenon inherently difficult to measure in the tradition of the business productivity literature as found in sabel 1993 third there is extensive evidence in the literature that journal publications are positively linked to academic salaries as found in siegfried and white 1973 and sauer 1988 that the propensity to coauthor is positively associated with publication output as in as found in durden and perri 1995 and maske et al 2003 that there are gender differences in tendencies to coauthor as shown by ferber and teiman 1980 and mcdowell and smith 1992 and that there are gender differences in professional outcomes such as publications salary and promotion as seen in mcdowell 1982 hansen et al 1978 formby et al 1993 and broder 1993 cumulatively these studies suggest that understanding the determinants of coauthorship is important for evaluating the sources and the extent of gender inequity in the profession prior work on coauthorship behavior has analyzed patterns over time and across disciplines several studies including hudson 1996 mcdowell and melvin 1983 and barnett et al

tax policy and aggregate demand management under catching up with the joneses this paper examines the role for tax policies in productivity shock driven economies with catching up with the joneses utility functions the optimal tax policy is shown to affect the economy countercyclically via procyclical taxes i e cooling down the economy with higher taxes when it is overheating in booms and stimulating the economy with lower taxes in recessions to keep consumption up thus models with catching up with the joneses utility functions call for traditional keynesian demand management policies but for rather unorthodox reasons

on the robustness of alternative rankings methodologies australian and new zealand economics departments 1988 to 2002 just as friendly arguments based on an ignorance of facts eventually led to the creation of the definitive guinness book of world records any argument about university rankings has seemingly been a problem without a solution to state the obvious alternative rankings methodologies can and do lead to different rankings this article evaluates the robustness of rankings of australian and new zealand economics teaching departments for 1988 to 2002 and 1996 to 2002 using alternative rankings methodologies and compares the results with the rankings obtained by macri and sinha 2006 in the overall mean rankings for both 1988 to 2006 and 1996 to 2002 the university of melbourne is ranked first followed by uwa and anu

trends in rankings of economics departments in the u s an update economics departments in the u s are ranked based on 1 the number of pages published in thirty six economics journals 2 publications in five of the top journals 3 output per faculty member and 4 an index of the concentration of research in a department evidence shows that the top twenty departments have generally retained their positions since the 1970s but rather large changes have occurred in departments ranked from 240 to 100 an economists hall of fame is developed listing the top fifty individual producers of research in the thirty six journal set and the top five journals

economic research in europe abstract the purpose of this paper is to give an account of the resources devoted to economic research at the national for the e e c level and at the european level and in addition to give a summary account of the output from that activity the findings permit us to make a certain amount of comparison between countries though no doubt some of the measures used will be subject to criticism the outcome of the study should serve to stimulate a more informed debate on the state of economic research in europe

economics in europe note by the editors the paper below by richard portes is published at our initiative it makes a number of critical points about economics in europe which can obviously be argued about and have in fact been the object of lively debate among readers of the initial report in an age when economic science thinks it important to be empirical and quantitative a merit of the paper is surely its effort to support by numbers and facts the assertions that are made we think that in bringing richard portes s arguments before a broader audience the review is making a contribution to the ongoing debate about where europe s economics stands and about how fruitful is our discipline s contribution to economic science and to society the review is willing to publish other papers on this topic using the rule of editorial discretion that was applied to the present paper to the extent that they are similarly succinct and tightly reasoned

american and european economics and economists america and europe differ with regard to what economics is understood to be how it is practiced and how professional academic economists behave specifically 1 american u s and canadian economists contribute by far the largest share of journal publications and are cited much more often than european economists while west european economists consider other aspects of their professional activities more relevant in particular participating in local and national affairs 2 economic research by americans tends to focus on abstract issues defined within the profession itself and involves fads while the activities of european economists though not necessarily their research are more concerned with practical issues and follow a more steady course and 3 american academics are geared to postgraduate teaching while in europe they are mostly engaged in undergraduate teaching these differences can be explained by the different market conditions faced by american and european economists in america the academic market is much larger and the degree of government intervention is typically much smaller this paper explores how this leads to different focuses for european and american economists in addition it asks whether the ongoing economic unification in europe may not alter these patterns

fishes ponds and productivity student advisor matching and early career publishing success for economics phds i introduction research productivity is an important concern for members of the academe publishing success is important for individual departments because more productive faculty increases the department s research profile which in turn increases the department s professional reputation as evidence thursby 2000 and ehrenberg and hurst 1998 find that a department s reputation in the national research council nrc ratings increases with published research while smyth 1999 finds that pages published in the top 5 journals have a greater impact than pages published in other journals publishing success is important for individual faculty members because peer reviewed publications have long been shown to be economic currency for academic economists bratsberg ragan and warren 2003 moore newman and turnbull 1998 sauer 1988 among others research promise is important for graduate students because students with the greatest promise for productive careers are likely to receive the best initial job placements buchmueller dominitz and hansen 1999 krueger and wu 2000 long 1978 indeed according to a survey of hiring departments carson and navarro 1988 every single top 20 domestic economics program considered the quality of one s research agenda to be of moderate to great importance in the hiring decision an important question then is how to identify which factors are associated with the likelihood of having a more productive research career to date empirical studies have focused on the program from which the student graduated recent examples include collins cox and stango 2000 davis huston and patterson 2001 stock and alston 2000 this focus implicitly assumes that because only the very best students become enrolled in elite programs graduates of highly ranked programs should hold the greatest promise for publishing success 1 in support coupe 2001 and buchmueller dominitz and hansen 1999 find that students graduating from top programs are more likely to publish in core economics journals while hogan 1981 finds that students graduating from programs with more active faculty publish more journal articles before placing total faith in these results however members of the academe should ask whether such findings hold across all points in the graduate distribution or whether they are only accurate predictors on average previously published data clearly suggest the latter for instance buchmueller dominitz and hansen 1999 find that 30 of tier 1 graduates do not publish any academic articles within the first 9 yr after phd receipt while 50 do not publish any top 50 articles as defined by liebowitz and palmer 1984 in other words there is a large amount of unexplained variability in the future success of a program s graduates krueger and wu 2000 93 consequently it is likely that significant overlap exists between the performance of top program graduates and lesser program graduates with significant portions of the latter outperforming significant portions of the former with this in mind the question becomes is there a readily observable factor that is a less noisy predictor of a student s likelihood for publishing success we argue that there is during a student s postgraduate education one of the most significant influences is his or her dissertation advisor we posit that for timing reasons advisors will possess additional insight into a student s true research potential that was not available to the admission committee when deciding whether to admit the student into the program consequently we expect a student s dissertation advisor to be a more informed predictor of his or her early career productivity than the program from which he or she receives the phd 2 in other words we believe that considering the identity of a student s dissertation advisor in addition to the quality of the program from which the student receives the phd should help reduce the uncertainty inherent in predicting the student s position within the early career productivity distribution

european economics an analysis based on publications in the core journals abstract in this paper we provide a ranking of european economics institutions and countries based on publications in a core set of 10 economic journals from 1991 to 1996 we find that the three leading universities in europe are the london school of economics tel aviv university and oxford university while the three top ranked countries are the u k france and israel

a worldwide assessment of scientific production in economics 1992 1997 the aim of this article is to analyse the worldwide production in economics to that end bibliometric indicators are constructed by way of a database made up of 55 international journals covering the period 1992 1997 a ranking of the leading thousand international affiliations is established and quality indices of the first 200 are presented finally a detailed analysis is carried out at country level and with respect to the 12 leading countries

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

from hyperination to stable prices argentina s evidence on menu cost models we review and extend several comparative statics results of xed menu cost models of price setting rms facing real idiosyncratic shocks such as the type studied by golosov and lucas 2007 as well as by many others these results are confronted with their empirical counterparts using the micro data underlying argentina s consumer price index for a time period where ination rates vary from almost 5000 per year

revealed performances worldwide rankings of economists and economics departments 1990 2000 in this paper i study the production of academic research by economics departments and economists worldwide rankings are provided based on both citations and publications these rankings reveal a dominant position of the united states in the production of economics literature over time however the extent of this dominance is decreasing jel a10 a14

ranking economics departments in europe a statistical approach we provide a ranking of economics departments in europe and we discuss the methods used to obtain it the jel cd rom serves as a database for a period covering 10 years journals are ranked using a combination of expert opinions and citation data to produce a scale from 1 to 10 the publication output and habits of fifteen european countries plus california are then compared individuals with a contribution greater than a predetermined minimum level are regrouped into departments which are ranked according to their total scores a standard deviation is provided to underline the uncertainty of this ranking

discrete choice with social interactions this paper provides an analysis of aggregate behavioural outcomes when individual utility exhibits social interaction effects we study generalized logistic models of individual choice which incorporate terms reflecting the desire of individuals to conform to the behaviour of others in an environment of noncooperative decisionmaking laws of large numbers are generated in such environments multiplicity of equilibria in these models which are equivalent to the existence of multiple self consistent means for average choice behaviour will exist when the social interactions exceed a particular threshold local stability of these multiple equilibria is also studied the properties of the noncooperative economy are contrasted with the properties of an economy in which a social planner determines the set of individual choices finally a likelihood function based on the theoretical model is given and conditions for the econometric identifiability of the model are established

the institutional concentration of authors in top journals of economics during the last two decades this paper addresses the institutional concentration of authors in 15 top economics journals from 1977 to 1997 the concentration of authors phd affiliations is substantially higher than the concentration of authors current affiliations relating input indicators such as population number of universities with economics departments or manpower in economics to publication output reduces the us dominance considerably whereas israel and the united kingdom come out excellently exporters and importers of phds among universities are identified concentration ratios like the herfindahl index lack a clear time trend nevertheless the position of the united states has been weakening in recent years

reserve and exchange rate cycles abstract many latin american countries appear locked into cycles of reserve loss devaluation and temporary reserve gains this paper shows how a dual exchange rate system with leakages may generate cycles in reserves and the premium between official and parallel exchange rates we study the dynamics of these cycles and their asymptotic behavior both analytically and numerically

the relative impacts of economics journals 1970 1990 our data collection and database assembly efforts were assisted by john p sophocleus mark gwartney michele butler and scott ralston we received extremely valuable computer programming assistance from jon brunson and edward novak constructive comments were receivedfrom two anonymous reviewers financial supportfrom the faculty development committee at salisbury state university is gratefully acknowledged

keeping up with the zhangs and house price dynamics in china abstract this paper studies the effect of social interactions on house price dynamics in china we first present household level evidence on chinese households tendency to keep up with the home ownership status of their communities keep up with the zhangs by means of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model we then study the impact of these housing consumption externalities on housing demand and prices our bayesian estimation and simulation reveal that these externalities significantly increase house prices in the long run steady state and amplify their response to shocks housing tax policies can mitigate the amplification effects

investment shocks and business cycles abstract the origins of business cycles are still controversial among macroeconomists this paper contributes to this debate by studying the driving forces of fluctuations in an estimated new neoclassical synthesis model of the u s economy in this model most of the variability of output and hours at business cycle frequencies is due to shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment imperfect competition and to a lesser extent technological frictions are the key to their transmission although labor supply shocks explain a large fraction of the fluctuations in hours at very low frequencies they are irrelevant over the business cycle this finding is important because the microfoundations of these disturbances are widely regarded as unappealing

an examination of the reliability of prestigious scholarly journals evidence and implications for decision makers in universities all over the world hiring and promotion committees regularly hear the argument this is important work because it is about to appear in prestigious journal x moreover those who allocate levels of research funding such as in the multi billion pound research assessment exercise in uk universities often come under pressure to assess research quality in a mechanical way by using journal prestige ratings this paper s results suggest that such tendencies are dangerous it uses total citations over a quarter of a century as the criterion the paper finds that it is far better to publish the best article in an issue of a medium quality journal like the oxford bulletin of economics and statistics than to publish the worst article or often the worst 4 articles in an issue of a top journal like the american economic review implications are discussed

dollarization in post hyperinflationary argentina abstract this paper analyzes the continued dollarization of the argentine economy which experienced a rapid decline in inflation following its hyperinflations of the 1980s first a measure of dollar currency circulating in argentina is developed thereby improving upon previous studies of dollarization and currency substitution that focused on dollar deposit holdings only second cointegration analysis of peso money demand in argentina finds a negative ratchet effect from inflation the reduction in peso money demand attributable to the ratchet mirrors the estimated stock of all dollar assets held domestically by argentine residents consistent with the hypothesis of irreversible dollarization

inflationary rigidities and orthodox stabilization policies lessons from latin america orthodox stabilization programs in latin american countries have been notoriously unsuccessful in combating inflation despite the imposition of stringent cuts in government deficits in most cases inflation came down only slowly and temporarily with concomitant declines in growth and employment the bolivian program one of the only latin american successes is contrasted with those of argentina brazil chile and mexico the problems of dealing with chronic inflation are compared with those of hyperinflationary countries and the influence of price and wage rigidities expectations and credibility is explored the study shows that fiscal restraint is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success and that sound management of nominal variables the exchange rate and money supply are also necessary the critical role of credibility is linked with price and wage rigidities in the chronic inflation countries whereas the unsuitability of hyperinflation is seen to increase the credibility of and thus the potential for successful stabilization programs

high inflation heterodox stabilization and fiscal policy abstract in 1985 86 argentina bolivia brazil and israel introduced stabilization programs aimed at drastic and immediate reductions in inflation besides traditional fiscal and monetary policies the stabilization packages included a number of heterodox elements such as wage and price freezes exchange rate pegging and deindexation measures this paper delineates the analytical relationship between the traditional and heterodox policies discusses the role and impact of the heterodox policies in the programs and examines in detail the role of traditional fiscal policy when coupled with heterodox policies and applied with the aim of moving quickly from very high to very low inflation

inflation unemployment and distributional conflict in argentina 1984 90 the cycle of various economic stabilisation efforts in argentina during the 1980s has often been characterised as reflecting either policy confusion on the part of officials or their unwillingness to depart from an obsolete model of economic development hence according to some the alternation between orthodox and heterodox policy approaches has revealed an absence of either economic policy wisdom or political conviction less attention has been paid to the underlying real class based conflict for income that has manifested itself in terms of high rates of inflation and at times hyperinflation interpreting the issue from this perspective allows us to appreciate the essential continuity of the process of neo liberal reform of the argentine political economy that commenced with the post peronist military coup in 1976 and has more recently culminated with the rise of the nominally peronist regime of carlos menem

neighbourhood effects and housing demand in this paper we estimate a model of housing demand with neighborhood eects we exploit special features of the national sample of the american housing survey and properties of housing markets that allow us to create natural instruments and therefore identify the impact of social interactions we find evidence of both endogenous and contextual neighborhood eects we report two alternative sets of estimates for neighborhood eects that dier in terms of the instruments we use for estimating the model when the endogenous neighborhood eect is large the respective contextual eects are weak and vice versa the elasticity of housing demand with respect to the mean of the neighbors housing demands the endogenous eect ranges from 0 19 to 0 66 and is generally very significant the contextual eects are also very significant a key such eect the elasticity with respect to the mean of neighbors permanent incomes ranges from 0 17 to 0 54

academic pay in the united kingdom and the united states the differential returns to productivity and the lifetime earnings gap this paper estimates earnings functions for two samples of u k and u s academic economists despite significant differences in compensation schemes a comparably specified human capital earnings model does a good job explaining earnings variations for academic economists in both countries our estimates suggest that rewards for research are more immediate and direct in the united states because of the national salary scale the payoffs to experience and seniority are greater and the payoffs to research are lower in the united kingdom than in the united states after adjusting for productivity and demographic factors we find that u s economists are paid approximately 40 more than otherwise equivalent economists in the united kingdom simulating career age earnings profiles for both markets we find that the earnings gap widens with experience for relatively productive research economists and may even narrow with age for relatively less productive research economists nevertheless the cumulative lifetime earnings foregone are substantial for research and nonresearch economists in the united kingdom

the social multiplier aggregate data is often used to make inferences about individual level behavior if there are social interactions in which one person s actions influence his neighbor s incentives or information then these inferences are inappropriate the presence of positive social interactions or strategic complementarities implies the existence of a social multiplier where aggregate relationships will overstate individual elasticities we present a brief model and then estimate the size of the social multiplier in three areas the impact of education on wages the impact of demographics on crime and group membership among dartmouth roommates in these contexts there is a significant social multiplier jel ho jo co

making sense of a crank case monetary diversity in argentina 1999 2003 based on empirical data this study discusses the introduction acceptance and circulation of two complementary currencies in argentina that do not fit well in the main approaches to the nature of money these two monetary circuits provincial and community currencies were introduced as units of account to denominate the value of debt and circulated as means of payment to overcome monetary stringency during the crisis of 1999 2003 after discussing several theories on the nature of money we reflect on the institutional significance of currency circuits as concurrent and rather stable pairs of trade and money we suggest that several theories of money need to be combined to account for the variety and heterogeneity of daily monetary practices in a broad spectrum of countries

inflation in argentina stop and go since the austral plan the austral plan launched in 1985 was argentina s most recent stabilization strategy for reducing high inflation a heterodox program it combined orthodox components tight fiscal policy and monetary restraint with less conventional wage and price controls the austral plan failed to bring inflation down on a sustained basis but it provided useful lessons about the design of heterodox stabilization programs the difficulties of sustaining this type of effort and the consequences of failure

testing the rank of engel curves with endogenous expenditure abstract we find that the endogeneity of consumer expenditure tends to increase the estimated rank of engel curves this result based on nonparametric procedure is in line with previous results obtained in the context of parametric specifications

who s publishing who the national composition of contributors to some core us and european journals abstract this paper reports and discusses the results that emerged from an investigation into the national composition of contributors to leading us and european economics journals

the journals of economics we examine the principal journals of economics with particular attention to the communication between journals as reflected by the network of interjournal citations during 1987 90 and the changes over the past century in the characteristics of the authors and the techniques they have used the numerical results and those of the statistical modeling of these results reinforce the importance of economic theory as an exporter of intellectual influence to applied economics the study includes an examination of the degree of specialization among different subfields of economics a statistical model is presented for measuring the flow of intellectual influence as measured by citations in terms of simple univariate scores

assessing editorial preferences towards industrial organization articles in order to evaluate the relative importance of articles on industrial organization published in major generalist or specialized scientific journals this empirical study has used the new 1991 jel classification system by regrouping contributions according to the type of article theoretical analysis industrial policy or industry studies a rate of multiple reference index has been introduced to examine the degree of relation between these three categories and used as a proxy for editorial preferences towards the type of treatment of the subject usually expected by the journal the article contents of nine generalist and five specialized journals are analysed for the two periods 1991 1995 and 1996 2000

exchange rate based stabilisation durables consumption and the stylised facts in this article we show that a model featuring durable consumer goods imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign assets and weak credibility can explain the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the stylised facts associated with exchange rate based stabilisation including the tremendous increase in real interest rates following a temporary reduction in the crawl total consumption spending rises 14 26 the real exchange rate appreciates 20 37 and the current account deficit swells to 10 15 of gross domestic product despite large capital inflows the real interest rate increases from 10 to 20 100