monetarism and the us economy we take a small macroeconomic model due to stein designed to capture the essential aspects of keynesian and monetarist propositions especially on the question of crowding out we show that stein s empirical procedure is inadequate he ignores the restrictions that he imposed on the structure of his model and concentrates on single equation reduced form estimation we are able to derive complete maximum likelihood estimates of the structural parameters subject to the non linear restrictions of the model using identical data and the same specifications but with these more appropriate estimation techniques we show that conclusions opposite to those of stein may be reached

precautionary saving in the small and in the large the theory of precautionary saving is shown to be isomorphic to the arrow pratt theory of risk aversion making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving and more generally to the theory of optimal choice under risk in particular a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive analogous to the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving and to give a new interpretation of the dreze modigliani substitution effect copyright 1990 by the econometric society

willingness to pay for stochastic improvements of future risk under different risk aversion abstract within a general intertemporal decision making framework this work shows one individual with more k th degree k 2 n ross risk aversion always chooses more current paying to improve his future payoff distribution when such stochastic improvement satisfies the n th degree mean preserving stochastic dominance moreover when stochastic improvement of the future payoff distribution is not mean preserving the notions of linearly quadratically restricted more ross risk aversion proposed by eeckhoudt liu and meyer 2017 can help provide a clear cut comparative statics analysis

environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in pakistan cointegration and granger causality abstract the paper is an effort to fill the gap in the energy literature with a comprehensive country study of pakistan we investigate the relationship between co2 emissions energy consumption economic growth and trade openness in pakistan over the period of 1971 2009 bounds test for cointegration and granger causality approach are employed for the empirical analysis the result suggests that there exists a long run relationship among the variables and the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis is supported the significant existence of ekc shows the country s effort to condense co2 emissions and indicates certain achievement of controlling environmental degradation in pakistan furthermore we find a one way causal relationship running from economic growth to co2 emissions energy consumption increases co2 emissions both in the short and long runs trade openness reduces co2 emissions in the long run but it is insignificant in the short run in addition the change of co2 emissions from short run to the long span of time is corrected by about 10 yearly

optimal self protection in two periods on the role of endogenous saving self protection is a costly investment to reduce the probability of loss this paper studies optimal self protection in a two period model with endogenous saving in a setting with a binary loss we show that prudence is negatively associated with the optimal level of self protection consistent with results obtained in single period models we provide intuition for this finding with the help of a recent approach based on stochastic dominance furthermore we determine the effect of interest rate risk on optimal self protection and study a model in which a decision maker engages in advance effort to increase the probability of facing a better risky situation all our results suggest that the understanding of advance self protection crucially hinges on whether the decision maker also uses saving to optimize intertemporal consumption utility if so the fact that self protection expenditures are upfront turns out to be irrelevant

environmental kuznets curves new evidence on both panel and country level co2 emissions using data on per capita co2 emissions and per capita real gdp from fifteen countries spanning the period 1960 2013 this paper tests the validity of the environmental kuznets curve ekc using both panel based and time series based methodological approaches of cointegration given that the ekc hypothesis postulates an inverted u shaped relationship between emissions and output the study tests for cointegration between per capita co2 emissions per capita real gdp and the squared values of per capita real gdp the evidence from panel cointegration methodologies is mixed this result might arise due to time dependence of cointegrating coefficients the time varying cointegration approaches provide strong evidence in favor of time varying cointegration parameters furthermore based on the quantile cointegration approach the results indicate that the ekc hypothesis holds in 12 out of the 15 countries however even for these three countries the ekc hypothesis seems to hold at certain quantiles

the nexus between urbanization renewable energy trade and ecological footprint in asean countries abstract economic growth accompanied by rising energy demand in asean countries have been unprecedented over these few years on the other hand the energy consumed in the asean region is predominantly non renewable which could have implications for sustainable development previous studies that have investigated the energy growth environment nexus for this region are inefficient in terms of the proxies used to measure environmental quality and the estimation techniques adopted as such this study explores the influence of renewable and non renewable energy consumption economic growth and urbanization on a more reliable environmental indicator ecological footprint from 1990 to 2016 while controlling for trade first and second generation unit root and cointegration tests are applied amidst evidence of cross sectional dependence findings reveal that economic growth trade and non renewable energy contribute significantly to environmental degradation in asean countries this suggests that the region is growing at the expense of its environment while also indulging in emission intensive trade further findings show a one way causality from urbanization to non renewable energy consumption policy directions and implications of the findings for sustainability are discussed

higher order generalizations of arrow pratt and ross risk aversion a comparative statics approach abstract we analyze comparative risk aversion in a new way through a comparative statics problem in which for a cost agents can shift from an initial probability distribution toward a preferred distribution the ross characterization arises when the original distribution is riskier than the preferred distribution and the cost is monetary and the arrow pratt characterization arises when the original distribution differs from the preferred distribution by a simple mean preserving spread and the cost is a utility cost higher order increases in risk lead to higher order generalizations and the comparative statics method yields a unified approach to the problem of comparative risk attitudes

neglected method of separating demand and supply in time series regression this article argues that in many markets quantity is demand determined in the short run but price is supply determined and that the dynamic restrictions between price and quantity implied by the model have been widely neglected in empirical research two examples illustrate our point the demand and supply relationships between inflation and unemployment and between the terms of trade and the trade balance in both specifying quantity as a function of lagged prices in demand and price as a function of lagged quantities in supply rather than concentrating on exogenous shift determinants is sufficient to separate demand and supply

risk and precautionary saving in two person households the existing literature on precautionary saving is based almost entirely on the assumption that the household acts as if it consisted of a single individual decision taker in reality saving decisions are typically taken by two person households this paper examines the implications of this observation for the existence of precautionary saving and shows that the assumption that the individual utility functions satisfy the conditions for precautionary saving to exist can imply that the household exhibits precautionary saving but only under strong assumptions on the type of risk change being considered

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

credit rationing or entrepreneurial risk aversion a comment cressy 2000 argues that the positive correlation between assets and the rate of business startups is due to dara preferences we show however that the required property is prudence and prudence is consistent with dara iara or cara

ranking contingent monitoring systems this paper seeks to provide a ranking of information systems in a setting of contingent monitoring control strategies that make the acquisition of additional information conditional on observing certain outcomes largely elude the existing ranking criteria we show that this happens because contingent monitoring involves more than the classical trade off between risk sharing and incentives it also requires a balancing of incentives and downside risk we then develop a refinement of the most common information system orderings that conveys this feature this allows us to reinterpret and generalize some of the literature s key results concerning for instance auditing policies with independent or with correlated signals and monitoring systems where the precision of an added signal is endogenous

money inflation and causality in a financially repressed economy algeria 1970 88 the objective of the paper is to replicate tests identifying the line of causality between the money supply and the rate of inflation using algerian date for the period 1970 88 and provide new evidence for a developing economy the methodology adopted is that of granger and the results show that there is a very strong relationship between the money supply and the rate of inflation with the line of causation being unidirectional that is from the money supply to inflation with no feedback effects

the relationship between urbanization energy use and carbon emissions evidence from a panel of association of southeast asian nations asean countries abstract this study uses annual data to detect the nexus between urbanization energy use and carbon emissions in a panel of association of southeast asian nations asean countries spanning the period 1980 2009 the study contributes to the increasing empirical literature by investigating the effects of urbanization and detecting causal links between the variables results from the pedroni panel cointegration tests show evidence for the existence of a long term equilibrium relationship between urbanization energy use and carbon emissions for the asean countries using the panel fully modified ordinary least squares technique the effect of urbanization on carbon emissions is further revealed i e a 1 rise in urban population results in a 0 20 increase in carbon emissions unilateral short run causal relationships from urbanization to energy use and from urbanization to carbon emissions have been found by granger causality tests also the results clearly indicate that in the long term urbanization together with energy use granger causes carbon emissions the paper concludes with main findings and provides recommendations toward rational planning of urban development and energy efficiency improvement strategies for the asean countries

inflation money interest rate exchange rate and casuality the case of egypt morocco and tunisia this study provides further evidence of the inflationary efects of the rates of growth of money supply gross domestic product efective exchange rate and imported inflation for egypt morocco and tunisia using quarterly data from 1964 to 1990 in addition it examines the granger causality between inflation and money supply as well as between inflation and the real exchange rate in the countries under consideration most of the results are consistent with extant theory and empirical evidence

the role of policy instruments in the innovation and diffusion of environmentally friendlier technologies popular claims versus case study experiences abstract moving towards sustainability will require that new environmentally friendlier technologies are developed and widely adopted policy instruments that promote eco efficiency are therefore necessary some claims frequently made in the literature on the relationship between policy instruments and technological development are examined the claims concern regulations environmental taxation and funding of research and development the claims are explored on the basis of empirical evidence from two sectors the pulp and paper industry and the marine engine industry little support was found for some of the claims in some cases even contradictory findings and for some claims the findings differed between the sectors and even within a sector depending on the issue

testing the exogeneity of economic time series an application of innovation accounting this paper proposes and presents an testable sufficient condition for testing the exogeneity of economic time series using sims 1980a innovation accounting within an unconstrained vector autoregressive model it is demonstrated that if each explanatory variable of a model is sequentially placed in the last position of the ordering of variables during orthogonalization then strict exogeneity of the dependent variable with respect to each explanatory variable can be tested without any a priorirestrictions the test is not biased by conditional correlations of other variables included in the model the empirical demonstration within the var framework is based on a set of variables obtained by solving a macroeconomic model

on the productive value of biodiversity the paper investigates the value of biodiversity as it relates to the productive value of services provided by an ecosystem the value of biodiversity is linked with a deterioration in the functioning of the ecosystem the analysis examines how the value of an ecosystem can be greater than the sum of its parts first we propose a general measure of the productive value of biodiversity the measure involves an experiment that divides the ecosystem into sub systems that are less diverse keeping aggregate resources constant second the value of biodiversity is decomposed into four components reflecting the role of complementarity scale convexity and catalytic effects this provides new and useful information on the sources determinants and dynamics of biodiversity value

natural gas trade and sustainable growth empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world abstractnatural gas is the key non renewable source of energy for a low carbon economy the research applies heterogeneous panel techniques to investigate the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth across a panel of top 15 natural gas consumers of the developing world we establish long run dynamics with cross sectional dependence and heterogeneity across the sample countries the long run output elasticities suggest that the natural gas consumption and trade variables have significant positive effect on the output in a panel of developing economies further we establish feedback relationship among gas consumption output and trade in the short run given the significance of natural gas as the low emission source of energy we suggest governments and policy advisers of these major natural gas consumers to focus on developing pipeline infrastructure for adequate supply reforming natural gas sector with a competitive price structure to combat excess demand in individual natural gas market w

skewness preference risk aversion and the precedence relations on stochastic changes this paper provides a general choice theoretic characterization of the trade off between risk and skewness whose importance in understanding risk taking behavior is well documented in empirical studies the condition under which the prudence measure kimball 1990 characterizes the strength of an individual s downside risk aversion against his own risk aversion is identified and interpreted in a unifying framework based on the concept of one stochastic dominant change preceding another and that of the desirability of a stochastic change the framework is also shown to be useful for a better understanding of the arrow pratt measure the stronger ross measure and the coincidence of the characterizations of downside risk aversion and prudence as well as the relationship between stochastic dominances of different degrees

economic growth co2 emissions and energy consumption what causes what and where abstract this paper applies panel vector autoregression pvar along with a system generalized method of moment system gmm to examine the dynamic causal relationship between economic growth carbon emissions and energy consumption for 116 countries over the period 1990 2014 using multivariate model the empirical results from this study have established key relationships which have important policy implications first at the global and regional levels economic growth does not cause energy consumption second with the exception of the global and caribbean latin america economic growth has no causal impact on carbon emissions however economic growth has a negative impact on carbon emissions at the global level and the caribbean latin america third carbon emissions positively cause economic growth fourth energy consumption positively causes economic growth in sub saharan africa while it negatively causes economic growth at the global middle east and north africa mena asia pacific and caribbean latin america fifth energy consumption positively causes carbon emissions in mena but causes carbon emissions negatively in sub saharan africa and caribbean latin america lastly with the exception of mena and the global sample carbon emissions do not cause energy consumption the impulse response function shows evidence of environmental kuznets curve at the global scale and sub saharan africa the policy implications of this paper are discussed

does economic integration damage or benefit the environment africa s experience abstract the leaders of african nations have committed to the establishment of the continental free trade area cfta over the coming years improved links among the african nations via increased intra regional trade have been considered as an essential mechanism to produce desired growth run overs and to support regional economic improvement however remarkable theoretical and empirical evidence has shown that increased trade might damage the environment and therefore may hinder the effort towards sustainable development and poverty reduction on the continent the present paper seeks to investigate and test the impact of intra africa trade using two measurements of environmental pollutants namely co2 and mp10 whilst integrating economic growth and energy consumption the study used a panel dataset regarding 46 african countries over the period 1990 2017 to carry out the empirical analysis the latest panel estimation techniques were employed more specifically and for the urbaneness purpose we employed a parametric technique which is dynamic ols and a non parametric approach which is fmols the results of both methods suggested that intra africa trade improved environmental quality on the continent in addition the results confirmed the presence of the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis the findings also indicated that whilst the consumption of energy played a vital role in the deterioration of the environment its impact remained marginal overall the results implied that intra regional trade and the environment quality were mutually supportive in africa

energy consumption economic growth and carbon emissions challenges faced by an eu candidate member abstract this paper investigates the long run granger causality relationship between economic growth carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in turkey controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor the most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to granger cause energy consumption but the reverse is not true the lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions turkey does not have to forgo economic growth

reexamining the empirical evidence for an environmental kuznets curve this paper uses an updated and revised panel data set on ambient air pollution in cities worldwide to examine the robustness of the evidence for the existence of an inverted u shaped relationship between national income and pollution we test the sensitivity of the pollution income relationship to functional forms to additional covariates and to changes in the nations cities and years sampled we find that the results are highly sensitive to these changes and conclude that there is little empirical support for an inverted u shaped relationship between several important air pollutants and national income in these data

tailored to the extremes quantile regression for index based insurance contract design a new approach for weather index based insurance design based on quantile regression qr to condition the yield index dependency is developed and compared to standard regression technique three conceptual different risk measures i e expected utility expected shortfall and a spectral risk measure are used to evaluate the risk reducing properties of these contracts our findings show that qr is much more powerful in establishing the yield index dependency and lead for all risk measures to a higher risk reduction than the standard technique ordinary least squares ols thus qr leads to a more efficient contract design which is beneficial for both the insurer smaller remaining risk and the insured higher demand and willingness to pay our empirical application is based on a 31 years long time series of wheat yield data from northern kazakhstan

the impact of renewable energy and agriculture on carbon dioxide emissions investigating the environmental kuznets curve in four selected asean countries abstract this study is the first attempt to explore the impact of per capita renewable energy consumption and agricultural value added on carbon dioxide co 2 emissions in four selected countries of the association of southeast asian nations asean 4 indonesia malaysia the philippines and thailand from 1970 to 2013 by examining the existence of the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis our results of long run estimates do not support the inverted u shape ekc in the selected countries the estimates indicate that increasing renewable energy and agriculture decreases co 2 emissions while non renewable energy is positively correlated to emissions short run granger causal relationships exist from non renewable energy to emissions and to agriculture from economic growth to agriculture and from agriculture to renewable energy directly long run causalities indicate the existence of feedback causalities between emissions renewable energy and non renewable energy our policy implication is that developing sustainable agriculture can promote renewable energy and reduce emissions

applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research abstract developments in applied econometrics particularly with regard to unit root tests and cointegration tests have motivated a rich empirical literature on energy economics over the last decade this study reviews recent developments in time series econometrics applications in the energy economics literature we first consider the literature on the integration properties of energy variables we begin with a discussion of the implications of whether energy variables contain a unit root and proceed to examine how results differ according to the specific unit root or stationarity test employed we then proceed to examine recent developments in the literature on cointegration granger causality and long run estimates between disaggregated energy consumption and economic growth we review both single country and panel studies and pay particular attention to studies which have expanded the literature through adding variables such as financial development and trade in addition to energy consumption to the augmented production function as well as studies which have extended the literature through examining disaggregated energy consumption by type in each case we highlight best practice in the literature point to limitations in the literature including econometric modeling challenges and suggest recommendations for future research a key message of our survey is that the profession needs to guard against overload of research in these areas as most applied studies are no longer adding anything more to what is already known

an index of sustainable economic welfare isew for chile abstract chile has experienced a period of strong economic growth the gross domestic product gdp has doubled in the past 12 years however income inequality remains relatively the same as in the 1960s the economic growth is primarily attributed to the exports of natural resources which accounts for 80 of total exports however the gdp fails to account for the loss of natural capital and non marketed services the objective of this paper is to more clearly indicate the status of the chilean economy in terms of welfare using the index of sustainable economic welfare isew designed by daly and cobb 1989 the isew provides corrections to the gdp that includes income inequalities household labor and damage to natural capital this index has been applied in several case studies for developed countries in general the results show that isew runs parallel with gdp until the 1970s when a decline in welfare occurs due to a loss in natural capital this study is the first attempt to utilize the isew for the purpose of analyzing whether or not similar trends exist for chile a developing country the isew for chile grew at a much slower annual rate over the past 30 years compared with gdp 0 16 vs 2 9 the chilean isew parallels the gdp until the 1980s a decline in the isew then occurs showing that chile is not on a sustainable path and that there is a strong link between economic growth and the depletion of natural resources

alternative approaches to comparative nth degree risk aversion this paper extends the three main approaches to comparative risk aversion the risk premium approach and the probability premium approach of pratt 1964 risk aversion in the small and in the large

risk efficiency and the adoption of modern crop varieties evidence from the philippines efficiency among farmers of less developed countries has been the focus of numerous studies since t w schultz hypothesized that farmers in developing agricultures are poor but efficient 1 a growing body of literature supports schultz s argument that farmers in developing agricultures have low incomes not because they use their resources inefficiently but because they lack the technology and resources they need to realize higher productivity and thus higher incomes a high priority in agricultural development assistance since the 1960s has been the generation of technology that would enable farmers to increase their productivity much research has been devoted to the causes of low agricultural productivity and the longer term productivity gains that may be forthcoming from modern technology but less attention has been devoted to the process of technology adoption by low income farmers as noted in the recent survey of adoption of agricultural innovations by g feder r e just and d zilberman there have been efforts to model adoption in the context of risk but there is a dearth of empirical evidence on the ways that farmers respond over time as a new production technology is introduced in a risky environment 2 in this article we address the empirical analysis of technical efficiency as farmers adopt new production technology taking into account production risk and learning we utilize recently developed efficiency criteria applicable when production is risky and implement these criteria using an approximation to a representative farmer s decision model 3 pooled time series and cross sectional data collected by the international rice research institute are used to investigate the

government deficits and money growth additional empirical evidence is provided concerning the impact of government financing decisions on monetary expansion in the united states for the post world war ii period the budget position of the fiscal authority and the rate of money growth set by the fed are specified as endogenous variables within a system of equations the empirical analysis generates evidence of a policy shift in the 1980s with budget deficits exerting no independent influence on high powered money growth prior to 1981 while after 1981 such a linkage is found to exist copyright 1990 by mit press

trade climate change and the political game theory of border carbon adjustments the lack of real progress at the durban climate change conference in 2011 postponing effective action until at least 2020 has many causes one of which is the failure to address trade issues and in particular carbon leakage this paper advances two arguments first it argues that the conventional view of border carbon adjustments bcas as a dirty trade barrier should be turned on its head rather the absence of a carbon price comprises an implicit subsidy to dirtier production in non regulated markets second bcas could act as a game changer when climate policy negotiations move at a glacial pace if at all materially stronger progress could be achieved indirectly from the threat of unilateral trade policies the paper shows how this could come about using a simple political game theory model the appropriate game form is one in which parties move unilaterally and sequentially given the failure to agree on a common course of action and are fully aware of the impacts of their actions the paper shows that properly crafted bcas could help reduce trade distortions limit the competiveness effects and help build a broader coalition of interests for more global actions

financial development environmental quality trade and economic growth what causes what in mena countries this paper examines the relationship between financial development co2 emissions trade and economic growth using simultaneous equation panel data models for a panel of 12 mena countries over the period 1990 2011 our results indicate that there is evidence of bidirectional causality between co2 emissions and economic growth economic growth and trade openness are interrelated i e bidirectional causality feedback hypothesis is validated between trade openness and financial development neutrality hypothesis is identified between co2 emissions and financial development unidirectional causality running from financial development to economic growth and from trade openness to co2 emissions is identified our empirical results also verified the existence of environmental kuznets curve these empirical insights are of particular interest to policymakers as they help build sound economic policies to sustain economic development and to improve the environmental quality

priority setting in health care and higher order degree change in risk this paper examines how priority setting in health care expenditures is influenced by the presence of uncertainty about the severity of the illness and the effectiveness of medical treatment we provide necessary and sufficient conditions on social preferences under which a social planner will allocate more health care resources to populations at higher risk changes in risk are defined by the concept of stochastic dominance up to order n the shape of the social utility function and an equity weighting function are used to model the inequality aversion of the social planner we show that for higher order risk changes the usual conditions on preferences such as prudence or relative risk aversion are not necessarily required to prioritise health care when there are different levels of uncertainty associated with otherwise similar patient groups

the monetarist versus the neo keynesian views on inflation abstract this empirical inquiry investigates the relative merits of the monetarist and the neo keynesian hypotheses regarding the behavior of inflation in the italian economy over the 1955 1983 period based on testing three alternative dynamic models that have been proposed in the literature the empirical results support the monetarist proposition that unemployment has an insignificant impact upon inflation a finding that is at odds with the neo keynesian hypothesis indeed consistent with the monetarist hypothesis the results suggest that the rate of monetary expansion is a prime determinant of the rate of inflation and its acceleration in italy

unbiased estimation of the inflationary effects of relative price disturbances abstract most recent versions of the expectations augmented phillips curve have incorporated terms to capture the effects of relative price disturbances this paper demonstrates that the standard specification of these equations leads to biased estimates of the coefficients on the relative price terms and that this bias reduces seriously the out of sample fit of the price equation a remedy is suggested that eliminates the source of the coefficient bias and improves the predictive accuracy of the model

further evidence on alternative theories of inflation and unemployment the scandination countries the objective of this study is to estimate the inflation and unemployment models of various of macroeconomics as suggested by sargent stein and rea and to test the validity of their propositions using the data of four scandinavian countries namely denmark finland norway and sweden the results provide some support for the new classical models on unemployment but the monetory variables as monetarists argue have a significant effect on unemployment with regard to inflation the data of the scandinavian countries do not support the monetarist proposition that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon however the results support keynesian propositions that economic slack represented by unemployment is important in explaining the rate of inflation

stronger measures of higher order risk attitudes this paper aims to extend the results by ross 1981 15 and by modica and scarsini 2005 13 to stochastic dominance of degree 4 and over specifically it is shown that ross approach can be extended to any order of risk attitude beyond the generalization proposed by modica and scarsini by means of sth degree increase in risk defined by ekern 1980 8 c 2010 elsevier inc all rights reserved

third degree stochastic dominance here f x and g x are less than cumulative probability distributionis where x is a continuous or discrete random variable representing the outcome of a prospect the closed interval a b is the sample space of both prospects the integral shown in rule 2 and those shown throughout the paper are stieltjes integrals recall that the stieltjes integral fb f x dg x exists if one of the functions f and g is continuous and the other has finite variation in a b let d1 d2 and d3 be three sets of utility functions x d1 is the set containing all utility functions with 4 x and 1 x continuous and 41 x 0 for all xe a b d2 is the set with x 1 x 2 x continuous and q j x 0 02 x o for all xc a b d3 is the set with x 1 x 2 x 3 x continuous and 1 x 04 2 x o o for all xc a b here 1 x denotes the ith derivative of x hadar and russell proved that rule 1 is valid for all cd1 and rutle 2 is valid for all ed2 the authors point out that the set of probability distributions that can be ordered by means of second degree stochastic dominance is in general larger than that which can be ordered by means of first degree stochastic dominance note that in rule 2 they assume that x is not only an increasing function of x but also exhibits weak global risk aversion a condition guaranteed by requiring the second derivative of x to be nonpositive in this paper a condition which will be called third degree stochastic dominance is considered it is based on the following assumption about the form of the utility function x from a normative point of view one expects the risk premium associated with an uncertain prospect to become smaller the greater is the individual s wealth the plausibility and implications of this assumption h ave been explored by john pratt as well as others the risk premium of an uncertain prospect is that amount by which the certainty equivalent of the prospect differs from its expected value in mathematical terms given the prospect f x with expected value a the corresponding risk premium t is obtained by solving the following equation rb

risk lovers and the rent over investment puzzle in this paper we prove existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in a rent seeking contest given a class of heterogeneous risk loving players we explore the role third order risk attitude plays in equilibrium and find that imprudence is sufficient for risk lovers to increase rent seeking investment above the risk neutral outcome moreover we show that rent can be fully dissipated in a standard tullock contest played by a large number of risk lovers

monetarism and the aggregate economy some longer run evidence a simple macro model is used to investigate various monetarist propositions over the period 1923 82 initial tests indicate a structural break over this period and the subperiods 1923 60 and 1961 82 are analyzed separately results obtained for the latter period support the monetarist propositions put forward by stein and others however upon closer investigation it appears that the crucial long run neutrality that characterizes these findings is essentially generated by government policy and is not necessarily an intrinsic property of the economy over that period by contrast results obtained for the period 1923 60 are much less supportive of these same propositions

risk aversion and the propensities for self insurance and self protection for a risk averse individual the methods for reducing the expected financial impact of a loss include reducing the severity of any loss that occurs self insurance and reducing the probability of the occurrence of a loss self protection the literature on this topic has pointed to several anomalies whereby the use of self protection and self insurance yield quite unsimilar results for example ehrlich and becker 5 show that self insurance is always a substitute for market insurance an insurance company s indemnifying a loss whereas self protection and market insurance might be complements dionne and eeckhoudt 4 show that a more risk averse consumer would always invest more in self insurance activities but not necessarily more in self protection activities they argue 4 42 that this result is counterintuitive and provides an exception to the widely accepted result that increased risk aversion reduces risky activities ehrlich and becker 5 639 argue that the incentive to self protect is not so dependent on attitude towards risk both of the above papers seem to take for granted that self protection activities reduce the riskiness of the final wealth distribution however as we argue below this is not the case if riskiness is defined as in rothschild and stiglitz 14 even if we use the variance as our risk measure we do not always reduce risk via self protection dionne and eeckhoudt suggest that these results might not be robust enough to extend to models that incorporate random initial wealth risk and state dependent preferences we show that the model seems to be very robust we also explain why self protection is not at all an exception to the long standing result of arrow 1 whereby more risk averse individuals undertake a lower

economic growth trade and energy implications for the environmental kuznets curve abstract the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis asserts that pollution follows an inverted u path with respect to economic growth the ekc has been explained in terms of structural changes in the composition of economic output and increased environmental regulation at higher income levels while some authors have incorporated the impact of trade policy orientation on the ekc the impact of the actual movement between countries of goods that embody pollution has not been considered this paper attempts to econometrically quantify the effect using pooled cross country and time series data the ekc hypothesis is examined with respect to commercial energy consumption the source of many serious environmental problems it was found that while both industrializing and industrialized countries have added to their energy requirements by exporting manufactured goods the growth has been substantially higher in the former at the same time industrialized countries have been able to reduce their energy requirements by importing manufactured goods exports of manufactured goods by industrialized countries has thus been an important factor in generating the upward sloping portion of the ekc and imports by industrialized countries have contributed to the downward slope

on crop biodiversity risk exposure and food security in the highlands of ethiopia this paper investigates the effects of crop genetic diversity on farm productivity and production risk in the highlands of ethiopia using a moment based approach the analysis uses a stochastic production function capturing mean variance and skewness effects welfare implications of diversity are evaluated using a certainty equivalent measured as expected income minus a risk premium reflecting the cost of risk we find that the effect of diversity on skewness dominates its effect on variance meaning that diversity reduces the cost of risk the analysis also shows that the beneficial effects of diversity

measuring stochastic technology the case of tulare milk production the flexible moment based approach to production analysis is used to measure the stochastic structure of large scale dairy production in tulare county california this approach is flexible because it does not impose restrictions on the relationships between decision variables and the moments of the probability distribution of output the parameter estimates support the hypothesis that second and third moments are functions of inputs and indicate that capital intensive dairies are riskier the implied behavior of a risk averse dairy manager changed markedly when the effects of inputs on the skewness of the output distribution were included in a decision model

money inflation and casuality another look at the empirical evidence for the usa 1953 84 this paper addresses the issue of the existence of a causal relationship between inflation i e change in the price level and change in the money supply three different causality tests are discussed and implemented for two separate time periods the results are mixed and somewhat difficult to interpret on intuitive grounds while a causal relationship is found to exist between changes in the consumer price index and changes in the narrowly defined money supply there is no relationship indentifiable between the other price and money supply data series used given this result one can see why different results are frequently obtained the different researchers focusing on the question of a relationship between the supply of money and prices finally the results of a previous paper by feige and pearce are called into question as the result of a serious misspecification

the impact of prudence on optimal prevention revisited this paper re examines the link between absolute prudence and self protection activities we show that the level of efiort chosen by an agent with positive and decreasing absolute prudence is larger than the optimal efiort chosen by a risk neutral agent if the degree of absolute prudence is less than a threshold that is utility independent and empirically veriflable we explain this threshold by a trade ofi between the variation of the variance and the level of the third moment of the loss distribution we also discuss our result in terms of skewness our contribution extends the model of eeckhoudt and gollier 2005

tax rate uncertainty factor supplies and welfare uncertainty about prospective changes in tax rates may increase factor supplies and hence the tax base permitting a reduction in tax rates that could result in a net increase in welfare under empirically relevant assumptions about attitudes towards risk we find that when an individual exclusively saves or works the tax base rises in response to greater tax rate uncertainty so that welfare could indeed increase however when an individual both saves and works the supply of the randomly taxed factor declines with increased uncertainty implying that tax revenue and welfare decrease when the nonrandom tax rate is sufficiently low

substituting one risk increase for another a method for measuring risk aversion abstract this paper defines the rate of substitution of one stochastic change to a random variable for another it then focuses on the case where one of these changes is an nth degree risk increase and the other is an mth degree risk increase where n m 1 the paper shows that the rate of substitution for these two risk increases can be used to provide a broader definition and two additional characterizations of the nth degree ross more risk averse partial order the implications for local intensity measures of nth degree risk aversion are also examined the analysis organizes the existing results as well as generates new ones

energy and carbon embodied in the international trade of brazil an input output approach abstract all goods and services produced in an economy are directly and or indirectly associated with energy use and according to the type of fuel utilized with co2 emissions as well international trade is an important factor in shaping the industrial structure of a country and consequently in affecting a country s energy use and co2 emissions this study applies input output techniques to the brazilian economy to evaluate the total impacts of international trade on its energy use and co2 emissions a commodity by industry io model in hybrid units energy commodities in physical units and non energy commodities in monetary units is applied to the brazilian economy in 1995 results show that total energy embodied in the exports of non energy goods of brazil equals 831 pj while total carbon embodied is 13 5 mtc these amounts are larger than the relevant amounts embodied in the imports of non energy goods respectively 679 pj and 9 9 mtc these figures are better understood by contrasting them with the total energy use and the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 estimated by this work 6781 pj and 99 4 mtc respectively this means that international inflows and outflows of energy embodied in non energy goods are in the order of 10 and 12 of the total energy use while inflows and outflows of carbon embodied in non energy goods are approximately 10 and 14 of the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 the general picture is that brazil is not only a net exporter of energy 153 pj and of carbon 3 6 mtc embodied in the non energy goods internationally traded by the country in 1995 but also that each dollar earned with exports embodied 40 more energy and 56 more carbon than each dollar spent on imports these findings suggest that brazilian policy makers should be concerned about the extra impacts international trade policy may have on energy use and carbon emissions of the country

the case for trade liberalization in developing countries in a broad swing of the pendulum developing countries have been shifting from severe and destructive protection to free trade fever many of the notable examples are in latin america mexico after a major unilateral trade liberalization is now negotiating a free trade agreement with canada and the united states chile traditionally a highly protected country is a leading example of reducing trade barriers argentina and brazil have entered free trade agreements a free trade area for the americas is becoming a serious possibility the enthusiasm for more openness of the economy is not limited to latin america for example korea and turkey are cases of highly successful liberalization there are also cases in africa for example ghana and botswana to demonstrate the possibility and the benefits of opening up this new enthusiasm for freer trade stems from four overlapping sources anti statism the world has seen a broad intellectual swing away from emphasizing the beneficial role of the state in the 1980s and protection is seen as one of the manifestations of an overly intrusive state of course a shift to a liberal trade regime has not always been the by product of a more democratic society chile under pinochet or korea in its liberalizing phase were under authoritarian rule two cheers for the market but not three the saying goes today the market gets at least three cheers which may be at least one too many poor economic performance many developing countries have suffered dismal economic performance and declining productive potential much of the reason can be traced to populist macroeconomic policies that engendered debt crises and hyperinflation of course part of the reason was also a very adverse external environment but since the days of plentiful external credit are gone

the long run and causal analysis of energy growth openness and financial development on carbon emissions in turkey abstract the aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between financial development trade economic growth energy consumption and carbon emissions in turkey for the 1960 2007 period the bounds f test for cointegration test yields evidence of a long run relationship between per capita carbon emissions per capita energy consumption per capita real income the square of per capita real income openness and financial development the results show that an increase in foreign trade to gdp ratio results an increase in per capita carbon emissions and financial development variable has no significant effect on per capita carbon emissions in the long run these results also support the validity of ekc hypothesis in the turkish economy it means that the level of co 2 emissions initially increases with income until it reaches its stabilization point then it declines in turkey in addition the paper explores causal relationship between the variables by using error correction based granger causality models

the policy ineffectiveness proposition some further tests abstract this study investigates for denmark the relative merits of the new classical versus the monetarist hypotheses regarding the role of monetary policy in stabilizing real economic activity the results do not reject the monetarist contention that anticipated systematic monetary policy has a significant effect on real output in the short run a finding that is inconsistent with the new classical policy ineffectiveness proposition

emission intensive growth and trade in the era of the association of southeast asian nations asean integration an empirical investigation from asean 8 abstract this paper attempts to shed some light on the energy consumption and associated emissions linking recent trade integration for eight economies in the asean region brunei darussalam cambodia indonesia malaysia philippines singapore thailand and vietnam considering the heterogeneity across the panel of countries a long run relationship is established between output energy trade and emissions over a period of three decades the role of transportation is considered in this respect the overall findings indicate that the environmental consequences of economic growth are alarming for most of the countries in the panel and non renewable energy consumption is the key contributing factor towards environmental deterioration in the asean region of the eight it is further established that five economies from the region cambodia indonesia malaysia thailand and vietnam predominantly engage in emission intensive trade and an increase in future energy demand and environmental degradation is projected for these countries we suggest that the implementation of economic and trade policies in future should align with the energy sector in this respect renewable energy sources will play a greater role in sustainable growth and development across the countries

economic growth and electricity consumption in former soviet republics abstract this study estimates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth with annual data for the commonwealth independent states countries in three groups of income levels empirical results reveal that electricity consumption and gdp are cointegrated for all these countries furthermore there is a unidirectional causality from electricity consumption to gdp for all groups in the long run effect of electricity consumption on the gdp is negative for the second group of countries which supports the energy conservation policies whereas it is positive for the first and third group of countries which supports the growth hypothesis

some stronger measures of risk aversion in the small and the large with applications the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion for von neumann morgenstern utility functions have become workhorses for analyzing problems in the microeconomics of uncertainty they have been used to characterize the qualitative properties of demand in insurance and asset markets to examine the properties of risk taking in taxation models and to study the interaction between risk and life cycle savings problems to name just a few applications equally importantly they have generated the linear risk tolerance class of utility functions which has provided canonical examples in such diverse areas as portfolio theory and the theory of teams despite these successes there have been a number of areas for which the results have been weaker than hoped it is natural to use the risk aversion measures to compare the behavior of individuals in risky choice situations for example consider the individual portfolio choice problem in a two asset world with a riskless asset and a risky asset if individual a has a uniformly higher arrow pratt coefficient of risk aversion than individual b then b will always choose a portfolio combination with more wealth invested in the risky asset but suppose that both assets are risky now there is no obvious sense in which the more risk averse individual can be said to hold a less risky portfolio but it seems strange that such a simple alteration should destroy the analytics which support the basic intuition similarly consider the basic insurance problem if one individual a is more risk averse than another b in the arrow pratt sense it follows that a will pay a larger premium to insure against a random loss than will b typically though an individual evaluates partial rather than total insurance that is only some gambles can be insured against and others must be retained in this case even when the gambles which are retained are independent from those which are insured it is no longer true that the individual whose arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is higher will pay a larger insurance premium the situation is no better when we consider comparative statics exercises for a single individual decreasing absolute risk aversion in the sense of arrow and

energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth in china abstract this paper investigates the existence and direction of granger causality between economic growth energy consumption and carbon emissions in china applying a multivariate model of economic growth energy use carbon emissions capital and urban population empirical results for china over the period 1960 2007 suggest a unidirectional granger causality running from gdp to energy consumption and a unidirectional granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth therefore the government of china can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth

experiential learning competitive selection and downside risk a new perspective on managerial risk taking it is part of managerial wisdom that managers need to take risks in order to succeed this is in stark contrast to the prominent agent based theories of experiential learning and competitive selection that are known to be biased against risky alternatives in the long run how can the positive managerial view on risk taking prevail given these results qualitative surveys of managers suggest risks to be acceptable if their outcome distribution meets certain criteria we argue in this paper that these criteria are widely congruent with low downside risk using a novel simulation design we analyze the effects of experiential learning and competitive selection on downside risk preferences in an ecology of agents in the long run experiential learning implies weak downside risk seeking whereas competitive selection leads to strong downside risk aversion furthermore competitive selection leads to the prevalence of outcome distributions with low downside risk in an ecology even if they have a significantly higher level of total risk than comparable distributions with more downside risk we draw implications for empirical studies on managerial behavior the online appendix is available at https doi org 10 1287 orsc 2017 1149

testing for prudence and skewness seeking numerous theoretical predictions such as precautionary saving or preventive behavior have been derived for prudent decision makers further prudence can be characterized as downside risk aversion and plays a key role in preference for skewness we use a simple experimental method to test for prudence and skewness preference in the laboratory and compare the two to this end we introduce a novel graphical representation of compound lotteries that is easily accessible to subjects and test it for robustness using a factorial design prudence is observed on the aggregate and individual level we find that prudence does not boil down to skewness seeking we further provide some theoretical explanations for this result this paper was accepted by peter wakker decision analysis

do risk lovers invest in self protection we show that there is a class of risk lovers who optimally choose a positive level of self protection investment in most cases a risk lover increases his self protection investment as he becomes less downside risk averse

money prices and causality monetarist versus structuralist explanations using pooled country evidence the direction of causality between changes in money supply and aggregate prices has long been a matter of controversy between structuralists and monetarists this paper addresses deficiencies in this literature in three ways first a large sample of countries with alternate measures of money and price variables is used to evaluate the evidence on money inflation and causality second combined data are tested for causality with the combinations based on variables suggested by the literature level of per capita income magnitude of inflation degree of financial market development and independence of the central bank finally because the choice of lag length is often arbitrary results are generated with varying lags and consistency across different lag periods looked for two presentation methods are developed categorical and graphical evidence of structural inflation was found only in chile and sri lanka evidence of money supply exogeneity on the other hand was found to be strongest in kuwait

alternative modes of deficit financing and endogneous monetary and fiscal policy in the u s a 1923 1982 this paper first investigates the effects of alternative modes of deficit financing on the unemployment rate the inflation rate and the real interest rate within the framework of a small complete macroeconomic model secondly it examines the nature of monetary and fiscal reaction functions the two periods 1923 1960 and 1961 1982 are considered with substantial differences in behaviour and policy being shown to exist between them the most important conclusion is that long run monetary neutrality properties shown to exist over the latter period are not intrinsic to the u s economy but rather are the result of the stabilization policies being conducted over that period

conditional coskewness in stock and bond markets time series evidence in the context of a three moment intertemporal capital asset pricing model specification we characterize conditional coskewness between stock and bond excess returns using a bivariate regime switching model we find that both conditional u s stock coskewness the relation between stock return and bond volatility and bond coskewness the relation between bond return and stock volatility command statistically and economically significant negative ex ante risk premiums the impacts of stock and bond coskewness on the conditional stock and bond premiums are quite robust to various model specifications and various sample periods and also hold in another major developed country the united kingdom the findings also carry important implications for portfolio management

energy consumption income and carbon emissions in the united states abstract this paper investigates the effect of energy consumption and output on carbon emissions in the united states earlier research focused on testing the existence and or shape of an environmental kuznets curve without taking energy consumption into account we investigate the granger causality relationship between income energy consumption and carbon emissions including labor and gross fixed capital formation in the model we find that income does not granger cause carbon emissions in the us in the long run but energy use does hence income growth by itself may not become a solution to environmental problems

regional differences in the dynamic linkage between co2 emissions sectoral output and economic growth environmental degradation measured by co2 emissions is a significant challenge to sustainable economic development owing to significant differences in the empirical relationship between the economic growth and co2 emissions and policies adopted by different countries to overcome the challenge are not decisive this study aims to generalize our knowledge about the relationship between co2 emissions per capita and economic growth across the world for 1980 2009 periods besides it explores whether the transformation of different economies e g agrarian to industrial and industrial to sophisticated service economy over the past few decades yielded any significant positive impact towards sustainable economic development by reducing the level of co2 emission empirical results suggest that i except for high income countries environmental kuznets curve ekc is a general phenomenon across the world and ii the transformation of different economies towards a service economy has produced more pollution in high income countries and less pollution in low and middle income countries

stochastic dominance analysis without the independence axiom we characterize the consistency of a large class of nonexpected utility preferences including mean variance preferences and prospect theory preferences with stochastic orders for example stochastic dominances of different degrees our characterization rests on a novel decision theoretic result that provides a behavioral interpretation of the set of all derivatives of the functional representing the decision maker s preferences as an illustration we consider in some detail prospect theory and choice acclimating preferences two popular models of reference dependence under risk and we show the incompatibility of loss aversion with prudence this paper was accepted by james smith decision analysis

renewable energy policies and contradictions in causality a case of next 11 countries abstract numerous studies on the causal relationship between economic growth energy consumption and carbon dioxide co2 emissions have shown divergence in policy recommendations which arises mainly due to the choice of methodology and the period of study this inconclusiveness in policy prescriptions might turn out to be critical when the renewable energy policies of the developing nations are considered our study analyses the causal relationship between economic growth carbon emissions fossil fuel and renewable energy consumption in next 11 countries during the period of 1990 2016 along with conducting parametric and non parametric causality tests together introducing the geweke 1982 causality test in the literature of energy economics we attempt to establish a wholesome aspect of policy design by comparing and complementing results of different causality analysis and how the causality directions should comply with the context setting our empirical evidence confirms that robust renewable energy policy can be designed by complementing the various causality test results rather than focusing on one particular causality test

the story of the moment risk averse cypriot farmers respond to drought management this article illustrates the importance of estimating risk preferences when evaluating water policy using agricultural production data from the kiti region of cyprus we estimate farmers risk preferences a la antle journal of business and economic statistics 1 192 201 1983 american journal of agricultural economics 69 509 22 1987 and show sensitivity to higher order moments of profit such as skewness we show that farmers in the kiti region are risk averse with risk premiums in the region of 20 of expected profit we use these estimates to analyse the impact of a water quota from the perspective of three policy makers who differ only in their understanding of farmers risk preferences we show in the case of kiti that policy makers who model risk preferences incorrectly that is either a assume risk neutrality or b ignore down side risk wrongly predict the magnitude and direction of input responses and therefore the magnitude of welfare changes this highlights the importance of accomm

choosing between risky prospects the characterization of comparative statics results and location independent risk we consider expected utility maximizers choosing from a family of risky prospects and examine how choice is influenced by the decision makers attitude to risk if the family of risky prospects can be ordered so that as decision makers are more risk tolerant they choose a gamble higher in the ordering then it is natural to say that the family of risky prospects admit a comparative static result the paper characterizes when comparative static results of this sort exist an application is to propose a criterion of location independent riskiness

interaction between central bank behaviour and fiscal policy the us case federal reserve behaviour is analysed using a model which incorporates an effect an effect of iscal pressure on monetary policy formulation incentive structures are hypothesized to be such that the central bank plans over a longer horizan than that relevant to the administration with the cyclically adjusted deficit proxying for fiscal pressure from the administration the response to the deficit then plays an interactive role in affecting the trade off weights applied to the competing goals of monetary policy the model performs well for the usa and provides a pattern of policy that is stable over the full 1961ndash 83 period

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

changes in risk and the demand for saving abstract how does risk affect saving empirical work typically examines the effects of detectible differences in risk within the data how these differences affect saving in theoretical models depends on the metric one uses for risk for labor income risk second degree increases in risk require prudence to induce increased saving demand however prudence is not necessary for first degree risk increases and not sufficient for higher degree risk increases for increases in interest rate risk a precautionary effect and a substitution effect need to be compared this paper provides necessary and sufficient conditions on preferences for an n th degree change in risk to increase saving

unemployment inflation and monetarism the council s report provides a look at the 1969 71 game plan to disinflate by means of retarding aggregate demand the president elect s task force on inflation recommended as a first interim step that aggregate demand be slowed so as to bring the unemployment rate back to some equilibrium region around 4 5 percent what happened was that under the cover of the expectation and acceptance of such a limited step towards re equilibration the administration gradually tightened monetary and fiscal policy so severely as gradually to send the unemployment rate whizzing past the equilibrium zone to around 6 percent to my knowledge the theory of how and how well this medicine would act to cure the patient of his inflation was never spelled out by the council of economic advisers pp 533 34