does the great recession imply the end of the great moderation international evidence in this paper we examine whether or not the great recession had a temporary or permanent effect on output growth volatility after years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties based on break detection methods applied to a set of advanced countries our empirical results do not give evidence to the end of the great moderation period but rather that the great recession is characterized by a dramatic short lived effect on the output growth but not on its volatility we show that neglecting the breaks both in mean and in variance can have large effects on output volatility modeling based on garch specifications

corporatism and unemployment in the 1980s and 1990s a number of studies have found an association between corporatist institutions and low unemployment in the 1970s and or 1980s three gaps in our understanding of corporatism s labor market effects are addressed here 1 which of the two principal forms of corporatism corporatist wage setting or union participation in economic policymaking or both generates these effects 2 what are the causal mechanisms 3 did these effects continue in the 1990s in the face of globalization restrictive monetary policy growing dissension within labor movements and related developments the impact of corporatism across 16 affluent oecd countries in the 1980s and 1990s is assessed using pooled time series cross section analysis the results suggest that wage coordination was conducive to low unemployment in the 1980s because it fostered moderation in labor costs spurred faster economic growth and encouraged governments to more aggressively pursue policies to reduce unemployment in the 1990s this effect disappeared largely because unemployment outcomes in low wage coordination countries improved rather than because unemployment outcomes in high wage coordination countries deteriorated union participation in economic policymaking was associated with low unemployment throughout the two decades conditional on the presence of leftist government union participation appears to have had this effect mainly via government policy

optimal regulation under fixed rules for income distribution abstract it is by now well known that if arbitrary lump sum transfers are feasible then the optimal regulation of firms involves marginal cost pricing here we consider optimal regulation in an economy in which lump sum taxation is possible but the income distribution is in some sense fixed we show that under certain conditions production efficiency and marginal cost pricing are desirable in general however this need not be the case in an economy with increasing returns it is possible that the second best utility possibility frontier is strictly dominated by the pareto frontier and none of the marginal cost pricing equilibria lie on the second best frontier

globalization and the great u turn income inequality trends in 16 oecd countries the debate on the resurgence of income inequality in some advanced industrial societies has often focused on the impact of an increasingly integrated world economy typified by growing capital mobility heightened international competition and an increase in migration this study represents one of the first systematic cross national examinations of the role of globalization in the inequality u turn results indicate on the one hand that total inequality variation is principally affected by the percentage of the labor force in agriculture followed by the institutional factors union density and decommodification and only then by globalization on the other hand longitudinal variation in inequality while still dominated by the percentage of the labor force in agriculture is also principally affected by aspects of globalization such as southern import penetration and direct investment outflow and to a lesser extent by migration in other words globalization explains the longitudinal trend of inc

macroeconomic uncertainty through the lens of professional forecasters abstractwe analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the united states based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of various economic indicators comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real time measure of uncertainty surrounding subjective forecasts in a simple framework we jointly model and estimate macroeconomic common and indicator specific uncertainties of four indicators using a factor stochastic volatility model our macroeconomic uncertainty estimates have three major spikes has three major spikes aligned with the 1973 1975 1980 and 2007 2009 recessions while other recessions were characterized by increases in indicator specific uncertainties we also show that the selection of data vintages affects the estimates and relative size of jumps in estimated uncertainty series finally our macroeconomic uncertainty has a persistent negative impact on real economic activity rather than producing wait and see dynamics

inflation real economic growth and unemployment expectations an empirical analysis based on the ecb survey of professional forecasters expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers in this article we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using

uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction the bank of england survey of external forecasters this article introduces a new source of survey data namely the bank of england survey of external forecasters the survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and gdp growth and hence offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty we present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement the resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty nationally and internationally a significant sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the bank of england to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting

an extension of the second welfare theorem to economies with nonconvexities and public goods in this paper we report a generalization of the results of foley and guesnerie on the second welfare theorem to economies with arbitrary nonconvex production sets the nature of marginal cost prices in such economies is clarified through the use of the clarke tangent cones

empirical measures of inflation uncertainty a cautionary note a direct ex ante measure of inflation uncertainty in the us is compared with a number of proxies used in empirical studies the direct estimate is the root mean subjective variance of the probability distributions for inflation reported by respondents to the asa nber survey the proxies include forecast standard deviations from arima arch and structural models of inflation these proxies are not significantly correlated with the direct measure nor with one another use of the proxies leads to incorrect inferences about the correlation between inflation and inflation uncertainty and between inflation uncertainty and the real interest rate

paradoxes of social policy welfare transfers relative poverty and redistribution preferences korpi and palme s 1998 classic the paradox of redistribution and strategies of equality claims that universal social policy better reduces poverty than social policies targeted at the poor this article revisits korpi and palme s classic and in the process explores and informs a set of enduring questions about social policy politics and social equality specifically we investigate the relationships between three dimensions of welfare transfers transfer share the average share of household income from welfare transfers low income targeting and universalism and poverty and preferences for redistribution we analyze rich democracies like korpi and palme but we also generalize to a broader sample of developed and developing countries consistent with korpi and palme we show 1 poverty is negatively associated with transfer share and universalism 2 redistribution preferences are negatively associated with low income targeting and 3 universalism is positively associated with transfer share

good times bad times postwar labor s share of national income in capitalist democracies this article returns to a classic question of political economy the zero sum conflict between capital and labor over the division of the national income pie a detailed description of labor s shar

a coasean general equilibrium model of regulation abstract although marginal cost pricing is necessary for welfare maximization firms that produce under conditions of decreasing average cost incur losses if they price at marginal cost in this paper the coase two part tariff is extended to several cases of common costs by assessing surplus in order to recover the losses of the regulated natural monopolist the existence of equilibria in these cases is demonstrated three models are considered in the context of an arrow debreu private ownership economy a model of the regulated monopolist who charges hookups to both households and firms who use the good a model of the regulated natural monopolist who is allowed to make positive economic profit and finally a model where two or more monopolists are under the control of a single regulator

measuring uncertainty based on rounding new method and application to inflation expectations abstract the literature on cognition and communication documents that people use round numbers to convey uncertainty this paper introduces a method of quantifying the uncertainty associated with round responses in pre existing survey data i construct micro level and time series measures of inflation uncertainty since 1978 inflation uncertainty is countercyclical and correlated with inflation disagreement volatility and the economic policy uncertainty index inflation uncertainty is lowest among high income consumers college graduates males and stock market investors more uncertain consumers are more reluctant to spend on durables cars and homes round responses are common on many surveys suggesting numerous applications of this method

working class power capitalist class interests and class compromise this article proposes a general theoretical framework for understanding the concept of class compromise in terms of a reverse j model of the relationship between the associational power of workers and the interests of capitalists increases in working class power adversely affect capitalist class interests until such power crosses some intermediate threshold beyond which further increases in working class power are potentially beneficial to capitalists interests this article argues that the reverse j curve is itself the result of two distinct kinds of effects of workers power on capitalists interests one a negative effect in which workers power undermines the capacity of capitalists to unilaterally make various kinds of decisions and the second a positive effect in which workers power helps capitalists solve the various kinds of collective action problems they face

social class and income inequality in the united states ownership authority and personal income distribution from 1980 to 2010 this study outlines a theory of social class based on workplace ownership and authority relations and it investigates the link between social class and growth in personal income inequality since the 1980s inequality trends are governed by changes in between class income differences changes in the relative size of different classes and changes in within class income dispersion data from the general social survey are used to investigate each of these changes in turn and to evaluate their impact on growth in inequality at the population level results indicate that between class income differences grew by about 60 since the 1980s and that the relative size of different classes remained fairly stable a formal decomposition analysis indicates that changes in the relative size of different social classes had a small dampening effect and that growth in between class income differences had a large inflationary effect on trends in personal income inequality

a multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement confronting models of disagreement with survey data abstract this paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters and discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation formation disagreement varies over time and is positively correlated with general economic uncertainty the degree to which individual forecasters disagree with the average forecast tends to persist over time models of heterogeneous expectation formation can be modified by introducing heterogeneous signal to noise ratios to match this feature furthermore disagreement about correlations of different macroeconomic variables is high on average in general multivariate forecast data can be used more effectively than it has been to estimate models with heterogeneous expectations and to test the mechanisms used to generate disagreement in these models

the relationships among expected inflation disagreement and uncertainty evidence from matched point and density forecasts abstract this paper examines matched point and density forecasts of inflation from the survey of professional forecasters to analyze the relationships among expected inflation disagreement and uncertainty we undertake the empirical analysis within a seemingly unrelated regression framework and derive measures of uncertainty using a decomposition proposed by wallis 2004 2005 and by drawing on the concept of entropy the results offer little evidence that disagreement is a useful proxy for uncertainty and mixed evidence that increases in expected inflation are accompanied by heightened uncertainty conversely we document a quantitatively and statistically significant positive association between disagreement and expected inflation

cooperation and political economic performance in affluent democratic capitalism research on comparative political economic performance has traditionally followed two separate tracks one concerned with collective economic gain growth and efficiency and the other focused on distribution and redistribution cooperative institutions offer a key to understanding cross national variation among the affluent capitalist democracies in both facets of political economic performance these institutions cluster along two dimensions neocorporatism and firm level cooperation pooled time series analysis for 18 nations over 1960 89 suggests that 1 neocorporatism is a major source of distributive redistributive policies and outcomes and of several sources of collective gain 2 firm level cooperation is a key contributor to economic growth

on the inefficiency of two part tariffs the partial equilibrium literature on two part tariffs suggests that if a commodity is produced under increasing returns efficiency can be achieved through marginal cost pricing and a suitable choice of entry fees fixed charge which may vary from consumer to consumer we show that this partial equilibrium intuition cannot be extended beyond some special cases even with a consumer specific fixed charge it is possible that none of the equilibria yield pareto efficiency furthermore it may be impossible to achieve pareto efficiency through any specification of taxes which are levied solely to cover losses hotelling 1939 and lerner 1944 among others see for example the surveys by ruggles 1949 1950 argued that firms operating under increasing returns to scale should be regulated to equate their marginal cost to the price of the output and the resulting losses financed through lump sum taxes being concerned primarily with efficiency issues the proponents of the marginal cost pricing principle did not advocate any particular distribution of the lump sum taxes among the consumers after the ensuing debate see for example ruggles 1950 there seems to have been a general agreement that marginal cost pricing is necessary for efficiency while admitting this coase 1946 presented an illuminating analysis of the drawbacks of what he called the hotelling lerner solution and also proposed an alternative solution it will be useful to begin by briefly recalling coase s criticism of the hotelling lerner solution apart from the practical problem of collecting lump sum taxes he emphasized two distinct drawbacks of the hotelling lerner scheme he claimed that this solution would not necessarily guarantee efficiency in the sense that it might lead to a marginal cost pricing equilibrium in which a positive amount of the commodity was produced whereas it would be better not to produce the commodity at all this can be restated simply as the argument that in the presence of non convexities marginal conditions need not guarantee global optimality there may be several marginal cost pricing equilibria some efficient and some inefficient as such this phenomenon can hardly be ruled out coase s second objection to the hotelling lerner solution was that it could effectively alter the income distribution if for instance a lump sum tax was imposed on all the consumers but only some of them consumed the commodity produced by the firm operating under increasing returns to scale then there would effectively be a redistribution in favour of those who consumed this subsidized commodity it was natural to keep the issue of efficiency separate from that of equity and coase argued that the hotelling lerner solution

fiscal policy and class income inequality the distributional consequences of governmental revenues and expenditures in the united states 1949 1976 despite the vast expansion in governmental spending during the post second world war era few researchers have sought to analyze the income distributional consequences of state fiscal policies the present research initially elaborates three abstract perspectives on the state and on united states budgetary practices then using factor share income as a proxy for broad class groupings this research provides a time series regression analysis of the impact of state expenditures and revenue extraction on the distribution of income in the united states for the years 1949 1976 results suggest that governmental revenue policies have had a procapital bias while state expenditures have tended to favor labor relative to capital the net impact of these contradictory tendencies has left the market based income distribution relatively unchanged despite the sizeable growth of the public sector during the period under study

the effect of foreign acquisition on employment and wages evidence from finnish establishments employee characteristics by skill groups makes it possible to disentangle the effect of foreign ownership on wages from its effects on the quality of the workforce furthermore this information allows us to examine the heterogeneity of the effect of foreign acquisition on wages and employment third the long timespan of our data thirteen years enables us to consider the effects of foreign acquisition in the long run hiring and firing costs may delay the effects of foreign acquisition by looking at the effects of acquisition in several periods after it has taken place these delays can be taken into account we believe finland to be an interesting case study for the effects of foreign ownership it is a typical example of a small open economy where foreign investment plays an important role furthermore our data cover the years 1988 2001 when the share of foreign direct investments rose rapidly in finland this increase is depicted in figure 1 and it partly reflects the worldwide trend in foreign direct investment but the years 1988 2001 were also characterized by two phenomena which undoubtedly led to the increase in the share of foreign owned firms first finland experienced a very severe recession in the early 1990s and the recovery from this crisis was associated with a rapid restructuring of the economy and a growth of new industries in particular the export oriented high tech sector 2 second finland joined the european union in 1995 which naturally removed a considerable number of barriers to foreign investment in the finnish economy the results derived by both matching and regression methods indicate that foreign acquisition has a positive effect on wages in all skill groups this wage increase is not immediate but occurs within one to three years after the acquisition the magnitude of this effect increases with the level of schooling of the workers the results indicate that there is a small decrease in the share of highly educated workers after foreign acquisition the decrease in the share of highly educated workers after acquisition also seems to hold for domestic acquisitions the paper is organized as follows the next section briefly describes the theoretical background for the analysis and reviews some previous empirical findings the third section describes the statistical framework and the fourth section presents the data sets the results are provided in the fifth section the last section concludes the paper

why do forecasters disagree lessons from the term structure of cross sectional dispersion abstract key sources of disagreement among economic forecasters are identified by using data on cross sectional dispersion in forecasters long and short run predictions of macroeconomic variables dispersion among forecasters is highest at long horizons where private information is of limited value and lower at short forecast horizons moreover differences in views persist through time such differences in opinion cannot be explained by differences in information sets our results indicate they stem from heterogeneity in priors or models differences in opinion move countercyclically with heterogeneity being strongest during recessions where forecasters appear to place greater weight on their prior beliefs

when unionization disappears state level unionization and working poverty in the united states although the working poor are a much larger population than the unemployed poor u s poverty research devotes much more attention to joblessness than to working poverty research that does exist o

accounting for labors share class and income distribution in the printing industry this study investigates the distribution of income between capital and labor in the printing and publishing industry the authors first compare a variety of conceptualizations and operational measures of labor s share and then estimate models for the period 1946 78 that explain the movements in several share measures on the basis of variables that represent the differential power of labor and capital their findings indicate that worker power particularly the extent of unionism and sometimes strike frequency increased labor s share especially in the 1946 62 period whereas employer power asset size and capital intensity decreased it

the measurement and characteristics of professional forecasters uncertainty there is increased interest in extracting indicators of macroeconomic risk and uncertainty from forecast surveys that include questions about density forecasts in this paper we consider several statistical issues that arise in the construction and interpretation of measures of uncertainty from such data with application to the bank of england survey of external forecasters we find substantial heterogeneity of individual forecast uncertainty and significant persistence in individual relative uncertainty this is an individual characteristic akin to the individual optimism and pessimism already established among point forecasts and which is seen to be present in the current data in a bivariate sense with respect to forecasts of inflation and output growth whether disagreement among point forecasts is a useful indicator of uncertainty is seen to depend on the underlying macroeconomic environment in an appendix the main findings of the paper are replicated with data from the european central bank survey of professional forecasters

on marginal cost pricing with given tax subsidy rules we provide an existence proof for generalized marginal cost pricing with given tax subsidy rules the novelty is that our approach allows for economic environments where all the generalized marginal cost pricing equilibria are inefficient in the aggregate an example is recalled in order to suggest how non pathological these environments are

macroeconomic effects of regulation and deregulation in goods and labor markets product and labor market deregulation reduce and redistribute rents leading economic players to adjust to this new distribution it typically comes with distribution and dynamic effects to study these effects we build a macroeconomic model on two central assumptions monopolistic competition in the goods market which determines the size of rents and bargaining in the labor market which determines the distribution of rents product market regulation determines entry costs and the degree of competition labor market regulation determines the bargaining power of workers we show the effects of deregulation we then use our results to discuss the political economy of deregulation and recent macroeconomic evolutions in europe

measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation we introduce a survey based measure of uncertainty about future inflation asking consumers for density forecasts across inflation outcomes consumers are willing and able to express uncertainty showing high response rates and response patterns that are reliably related to qualitative measures of uncertainty heterogeneity in expressed uncertainty is associated with demographic characteristics and financial literacy and measures of central tendency derived from density forecasts are strongly correlated with point forecasts furthermore expressed uncertainty is positively related to point forecast levels and to larger revisions in point forecasts over time copyright 2011 john wiley sons ltd

the effect of unions on wage inequality in the u s labor market this study uses current population survey micro data for 1973 74 and 1993 to evaluate the effect of changing union membership on trends in male and female wage inequality unionization rates of men fell between the two sample periods with bigger declines among lower skill groups these trends account for 15 20 of the rise in male wage inequality union membership rates of low wage women also declined while unionization increased among higher wage women on balance shifting unionization accounts for very little of the rise in female wage inequality economy wide trends in unionization mask a sharp divergence between the private sector where unionism was declining and the public sector where it was rising comparisons across sectors suggest that unionization substantially slowed the growth in wage inequality in the public sector

money supply class power and inflation monetarism reassessed recent sociological work shows that pro market neoliberal policies across advanced capitalist countries are due to distributional struggle between classes in the 1970s and 1980s the orthodox monetarist view alternatively sees neoliberal reform as a nonpolitical attempt to end the stagflation crisis of the 1970s from this perspective monetary and fiscal expansions brought high inflation and central bank discipline and government austerity is the solution but the recent trend of low inflation despite accelerating money growth and government spending contradicts this view analyses of time series cross section data for 23 oecd countries from 1960 to 2009 support the thesis that the rise and fall of inflation is more about distribution of power between labor and capital than about monetary and fiscal discipline inflation in the 1970s originated from a strong working class and hurt capital more than it did workers while neoliberal repression of workers power has kept inflation low from the 1980s onwa

profit growth in boom and bust the great recession and the great depression in comparative perspective the great recession of 2007 2009 and the great depression of the 1930s were triggered by the collapse of asset price bubbles however preexisting structural imbalances in the us economy were the reason why the burst of speculative bubbles induced a general economic collapse this article argues that the imbalance created by the combination of stagnant labor earnings and surging corporate profits not only played a leading role in the run up to the downturns but also was chiefly responsible for the slow recoveries on the one hand the relative stagnation of labor income represented a key factor behind rising income inequality and a potential drag on consumption which was temporarily alleviated by credit expansion hence the rising household debt levels eventually became unsustainable on the other hand rising corporate profits created an overhang of idle money eager to lend itself to speculative ventures which played a key role in fueling the stock market bubble of the 1920s and the housing bubble of the 2000s the article further argues that despite various superficial and deeper similarities between the circumstances surrounding the great recession and the great depression some fundamental differences in the structure of the us economy then and now suggest vastly different future prospects for american capitalism

the decline of the labor income share in mexico 1990 2015 abstract the paper studies the decline of the labor income share lis in mexico during the period 1990 2015 the decline is mostly explained by reductions within the economy s major sectors including manufacturing tradables and non tradables rather than by a recomposition of value added towards sectors with low labor shares in contrast to agriculture where lis fell due to a shift of labor force from self employment to wage employment in other major areas of the economy the fall in lis is explained by reductions within the wage employment sector econometric estimations indicate that parallel declines in the wage share and relative productivity of non tradables and in the us manufacturing labor share all played a large role in the reduction of the manufacturing wage share in mexico more generally the analysis suggests that the lagging productivity of the economy s informal non tradable sector itself a reflection of the country s low aggregate rate of economic growth is a crucial factor in the fall of lis in the formal sectors the paper concludes by discussing possible explanations for the paradox of the slow rate of economic growth in mexico despite the rise in the profit share

the decentralization of collective bargaining a literature review and comparative analysis the author reviews evidence that the bargaining structure is becoming more decentralized in sweden australia the former west germany italy the united kingdom and the united states although in

gender the welfare state and public employment a comparative study of seven industrialized countries using data from the luxembourg income study lis the authors explore the influence of government employment on the gender gap in earnings in seven countries they address four questions on the effects of public sector employment on the gender gap in earnings 1 do governments offer jobs that are comparatively high paying 2 does public employment benefit some workers such as low paid workers more than others 3 are public sector employment advantages explained by differences in worker characteristics and the occupational mix 4 what is the effect of public employment its extent and its pay structure on gender gaps in wages the results indicate marked variation across liberal conservative and social democratic welfare states but reveal a number of uniformities as well in most of the seven countries in the sample public sector workers earn more on average than do workers in the private sector and most earnings advantages are concentrated on the low end of the earnings distribution the effect of public employment on the overall gender gap in wages is limited in most countries the authors discuss the implications of these results for theory and research on gender and the welfare state

people flows in globalization the policy debate over globalization in the past decade has largely bypassed the international mobility of labor restrict trade and cries of protectionism resound suggest linking labor standards to trade and it s protectionism in disguise limit capital flows and the international monetary fund is on your back but restrict people flows that s just an accepted exercise of national sovereignty during the last few decades when most countries reduced barriers to trade in goods and services and liberalized financial capital markets most also sought to limit immigration in this essay i examine what we know about the causes and consequences of immigration i argue that people flows are fundamental to creating a global economy and that the interplay among immigration capital and trade is essential to understanding the way globalization affects economies i consider ways to reduce barriers to immigration that could improve the well being of workers around the world

marginal cost pricing under bounded marginal returns most of the available results on the existence of marginal cost pricing equilibrium are unsatisfactory in that they make a survival assumption that is stated as a condition on the production equilibria of the economy the primary objective of this paper is to provide a relatively elementary existence result that replaces such an assumption with one on the primitive data of the economy the author s main assumption is that no firm faces unbounded increasing returns in the sense that if it uses some input then the rate at which this input can be substituted into an output is finite copyright 1992 by the econometric society

determinants of labour s income share in the era of financialisation numerous studies have analysed the decline in the labour share of income but only few have linked it to the increase in financialisation the process of financialisation can roughly be described as an increasing importance of the financial sector that had an impact on the distribution between wages and profits on the one hand and retained earnings and financial income in the form of dividends and interests on the other hand this article seeks to explore the relationship between financialisation and labour s share of income using a time series cross sectional dataset of 13 countries over the time period from 1986 until 2007 the results suggest that there is indeed a relationship between increasing dividend and interest payments of non financial corporations and the decline of the share of wages in national income other factors that can account for the decline relate to globalisation and a decrease in the bargaining power of labour

taking time seriously dramatic world change has stimulated interest in research questions about the dynamics of politics we have seen increases in the number of time series data sets and the length of typical time series but three shortcomings are prevalent in published time series analysis first analysts often estimate models without testing restrictions implied by their specification second researchers link the theoretical concept of equilibrium with cointegration and error correction models third analysts often do a poor job of interpreting results the consequences include weak connections between theory and tests biased estimates and incorrect inferences we outline techniques for estimating linear dynamic regressions with stationary data and weakly exogenous regressors we recommend analysts 1 start with general dynamic models and test restrictions before adopting a particular specification and 2 use the wide array of information available from dynamic specifications we illustrate this strategy with data on congressional approval and tax rates across oecd countries

wage setting institutions and pay inequality in advanced industrial societies the distribution of pay differs significantly across countries and over time among advanced industrial societies in this paper institutional and political determinants of pay inequality are studied in sixteen countries from 1980 to 1992 the most important factor in explaining pay dispersion is the level of wage setting i e whether wages are set at the level of the individual the plant the industry or the entire private sector the impact of centralization is the same whether centralization occurs via collective bargaining or via government involvement in private sector wage setting the concentration of unions and the share of the labor force covered by collective bargaining agreements also matter after controlling for wage setting institutions other variables such as the governing coalition the size of government international openness and the supply of highly educated workers have little impact economic political and norm based explanations for the association of centralization with egalitarian outcomes are discussed

comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters we use data from the survey of professional forecasters spf to compare point predictions of gross domestic product gdp growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters we find that most spf point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of forecasters subjective distributions tend to be asymmetric with spf forecasters tending to report point predictions that give a more favorable view of the economy than do their subjective means medians modes

the drivers of income inequality in rich countries rising income inequality has recently come centre stage as a core societal concern for rich countries the diagnosis of the forces driving inequality upwards and their relative importance remains hotly contested notably with respect to the roles of globalization versus technology and of market forces versus institutions and policy choices this survey provides a critical review and synthesis of recent research the focus is on income inequality across the entire distribution rather than only on what has been happening at the very top we pay particular attention to including what has been learned from the analysis of micro data to ensuring that the coverage is not unduly us centric and to analyses of the interrelations between the different drivers of inequality the marked differences in inequality trends across countries and time periods reflect how global economic forces such as globalisation and technological change have interacted with differing national contexts and institutions major analytical challenges stand in the way of a consensus emerging on the relative importance of different drivers in how income inequality has evolved in recent decades

what s behind the rise in profitability in the us in the 1980s and 1990s profitability in the us has been rising since the early 1980s and by 1997 was at its highest level since its post world war ii peak in the mid 1960s and the profit share by one definition at its highest point in this paper i examine the role of the change in the profit share and capital intensity as well as structural change on movements in the rate of profit between 1947 and 1997 its recent recovery is traced to a rise in the profit share in national income a slowdown in capital labour growth at the industry level and employment shifts to relatively labour intensive industries copyright 2003 oxford university press

the structure of class conflict in democratic capitalist societies the article presents a theory of class conflict between workers and capitalists who pursue their material interests under a form of societal organization that combines private ownership of instruments of production with representative political institutions there exist economic and political conditions under which both classes would simultaneously choose courses of action that constitute a class compromise workers consent to the institution of profit and capitalists to democratic institutions through which workers can effectively press claims for material gains when these conditions hold and a compromise is in force the role of the state consists in institutionalizing coordinating and enforcing the terms of a compromise that represents the preferences of workers as well as capitalists the combination of private ownership of the instruments of production with representative political institutions based on widespread suffrage constitutes a compromise between workers who consent to the private appropriation of profit by owners of capital and capitalists who accept the democratic institutions through which workers can make effective claims for an improvement of their material conditions this form of societal organization was con

modeling time varying uncertainty of multiple horizon forecast errors we estimate uncertainty measures for point forecasts obtained from survey data pooling information embedded in observed forecast errors for different forecast horizons to track time varying uncer

income inequality democracy and public sector size this study synthesizes and tests explanations of how public sector size and democracy affect income inequality the results based on unbalanced panel data for 64 developing and developed countries

macroeconomic structure and labor s share of income united states 1950 to 1980 we test several hypotheses derived fr om marxist crisis theories regarding the impact of macroeconomic performance on the distribution of income between labor and capital in the united states during the period 1950 to 1980 using annual data on compensation profits and employment we estimate the short term effects of cyclical variations in unemployment inflation growth and capacity utilization on labor s income share with an additive decomposition of labor s income share we then estimate the extent to which the observed effects can be attributed to changes in compensation output and employment we find little support for the hypothesis that tight labor markets increase labor s income share by increasing the bargaining position of labor the hypothesis that labor compensation lags behind profits over the business cycle is supported our results therefore favor the realization failure rather than the reserve army theory of cyclical crisis

on the existence of lindahl hotelling equilibria abstract we consider an economy characterized by the simultaneous presence of public goods and many increasing returns to scale firms we formalize a notion of equilibrium termed a lindahl hotelling equilibrium in which producer prices are marginal cost prices and the public goods are financed through lindahl prices sufficient conditions are provided for such an equilibrium to exist

factor shares the principal problem of political economy this paper identifies three reasons for studying factor shares to make a link between incomes at the macroeconomic level national accounts and incomes at the level of the household to help understand inequality in the personal distribution of income and to address the concern of social justice with the fairness of different sources of income in each case i explore the implications and point to ways in which the analysis could be taken forward in a twenty first century treatment of the classical problem of political economy

a closer look at the behavior of uncertainty and disagreement micro evidence from the euro area this paper examines point and density forecasts of real gdp growth inflation and unemployment from the european central bank s survey of professional forecasters we present individual uncertainty measures and introduce individual point and density based measures of disagreement the data indicate substantial heterogeneity and persistence in respondents uncertainty and disagreement with uncertainty associated with prominent respondent effects and disagreement associated with prominent time effects we also examine the co movement between uncertainty and disagreement and find an economically insignificant relationship that is robust to changes in the volatility of the forecasting environment this provides further evidence that disagreement is not a reliable proxy for uncertainty

consensus and uncertainty in economic prediction we define consensus as the degree of agreement among point predictions aimed at the same target by different individuals and uncertainty as the diffuseness of the corresponding probability distributions this distinction is made operational with the aid of the nber asa survey data on matched point and probabilistic forecasts of inflation and the rate of change in gross national product the means of the two sets of forecasts agree closely standard deviations of point forecasts tend to understate uncertainty as measured by standard deviations of the predictive probability distributions however these measures of consensus and uncertainty are on the whole positively correlated there is evidence that expectations of higher inflation generate greater uncertainty about inflation tests also favor the hypothesis that a rise in inflation uncertainty has adverse effects on real growth

determinants of relative poverty in advanced capitalist democracies using relative poverty measures based on micro level data from the luxembourg income study in conjunction with pooled time series data for 14 advanced capitalist democracies between 1970 and 1997 the authors analyze separately the rate of pretax transfer poverty and the reduction in poverty achieved by systems of taxes and transfers socioeconomic factors including de industrialization and unemployment largely explain pre tax transfer poverty rates of the working age population in these advanced capitalist democracies the extent of redistribution measured as poverty reduction via taxes and transfers is explained directly by welfare state generosity and constitutional structure number of veto points and the strength of the political left both in unions and in government

the measurement and behavior of uncertainty evidence from the ecb survey of professional forecasters summary we examine matched point and density forecasts of output growth inflation and unemployment from the ecb survey of professional forecasters we construct measures of uncertainty from individual histograms and find that the measures display countercyclical behavior and have increased across all forecast horizons since 2007 we also derive measures of forecast dispersion and forecast accuracy and find that they are not reliable proxies for uncertainty there is however evidence of a meaningful co movement between uncertainty and aggregate point predictions for output growth and unemployment these results are robust to changes in the composition of the survey respondents over time copyright 2015 john wiley sons ltd

the rise of finance and firm employment dynamics this article sheds light on the ongoing employment stagnation in the united states by investigating the links between the rise of finance and firm employment dynamics during the 1982 2005 period i argue that the rise of finance marginalized the role of labor in revenue generating and sharing processes which led to employment stagnation among the largest nonfinancial firms in the united states evidence suggests that increasing investment in financial assets depresses the workforce size the growing dependence on debt reprioritizes the order of distribution heightening the need for workforce reduction the increasing rewards for shareholders generate a downsize and distribute spiral in which labor expense becomes a primary target of cost cutting strategies further analysis indicates that production and service workers are more vulnerable to shifts associated with the rise of finance than managers and professionals

the central government private sector wage differential since ehrenberg and schwarz 1986 there has been a plethora of articles investigating the relationship between public and private sector wages this article examines part of this post 1986 literature by reviewing articles that examine central government private sector wage differentials in sum most articles find that there is a premium paid to central government workers although the premium has declined in recent years in developing countries however the differential is usually negative women and minorities tend to do better in the public sector relative to their private sector counterparts the evidence on union premiums between sectors is mixed although the premium tends to be higher in the private sector however public sector union workers do not do much better than private sector union members the magnitude of all of the wage differentials discussed are sensitive to the estimation technique and data source used the most common explanation for the public sector wage premium is economic rent accruing to government workers although the public sector wage determination literature suggests that the differential is due to returns to political and vote producing activities not relevant in the private sector

modelling multi period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts this paper examines the determinants of inflation forecast uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters spf based on a dynamic heterogeneous panel data model we find that the persistence in forecast uncertainty is much less than what the aggregate time series data would suggest in addition the strong link between past forecast errors and current forecast uncertainty as often noted in the arch literature is largely lost in a multi period context with varying forecast horizons we propose a novel way of estimating news and its variance using the kullback leibler information and show that the latter is an important determinant of forecast uncertainty our evidence suggests a strong relationship of forecast uncertainty with level of inflation but not with forecaster discord or with the volatility of a number of other macroeconomic indicators copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd