trade and protection in vertically related markets abstract we consider home country tariff and subsidy policies in a setting where a home firm is partially dependent on a foreign vertically integrated firm for supplies of a key input the firms are cournot competitors in the home market for the final product we show that a tariff on final product imports may cause the foreign vertically integrated firm to reduce the price charged for the input under circumstances where a simple monopoly supplier of the input would increase its price supply conditions for the input significantly affect whether imports of the input should be taxed or subsidized

system theoretic time series forecasts of weekly live cattle prices multivariate time series forecasts of weekly live cattle prices in six different geographic markets are developed using a procedure based on the principles of linear systems theory these forecasts were found to be informative and superior to those obtained from an alternative model following the approach developed for stock prices by cerchi and havenner arbitrage portfolios were constructed from the model parameters a simulation exercise based on 208 weekly observations withheld from model specification and estimation suggests that these arbitrage activities would have been profitable in practice

business cycles with staggered prices and international trade in intermediate inputs abstract international trade in intermediate inputs and increasingly in goods produced at multiple stages of processing has been widely studied in the real trade literature we assess the role of this feature of modern world trade in accounting for some stylized facts about international business cycles our model with staggered prices and trade in intermediates across four stages of processing does well in explaining the observed international correlations in aggregate quantities and it performs much better than a single stage model with no trade in intermediates the model in itself does not provide a full account of the cyclical behavior of the real exchange rate but compared to the single stage model it moves in the right direction

a new approach for controlling a hybrid stochastic manufacturing remanufacturing system with inventories and different leadtimes this paper addresses the control problem of a stochastic recovery system with two stocking points and different leadtimes for production and remanufacturing for such systems the optimal control policy for a linear cost model is not known therefore in the literature several heuristic policies are investigated and analyzed in this paper a new approach is provided which differs substantially from the existing ones instead of using one inventory position for the production and remanufacturing decisions we base the decisions on two aggregate variables which are defined different for different leadtime relations by means of numerical examples we illustrate that system performance measured in average costs per time unit can be improved substantially by our new approach especially for large leadtime differences

predicting turning points through the integration of multiple models a new method for forming composite turning point or other qualitative forecasts is proposed rather than forming composite forecasts by the standard bayesian approach with weights proportional to each model s posterior odds weights are assigned to the individual models in proportion to the probability of each model s having the correct turning point prediction these probabilities are generated by logit models estimated with data on the models past turning point forecasts an empirical application to gross national product gross domestic product forecasting of 18 organization for economic cooperation and development countries demonstrates the potential benefits of the procedure

optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy this article theoretically analyses optimal input trade policy under economic uncertainties in a small open economy the benchmark model explains both key business cycle moments and asset prices of

macroeconomic forecasting using pooled international data it has long been recognized that national economies are economically interdependent see e g burns and mitchell 1946 for evidence of comovements of business activity in several countries and zarnowitz 1985 for a summary of recent evidence recognition of such interdependence raises the question can such interdependence be exploited econometrically to produce improved forecasts of countries macroeconomic variables such as rates of growth of output and so forth this is the problem that we address in this article using annual and quarterly data for a sample of european economic community eec countries and the united states

sellers local currency pricing or buyers local currency pricing does it matter for international welfare analysis abstract we study international transmissions and welfare implications of monetary shocks in a two country world with multiple stages of production and multiple border crossings of intermediate goods this empirically relevant feature is important as it has opposite implications for two external spillover effects of a unilateral monetary expansion if all production and trade are assumed to occur in a single stage the conflict of interest terms of trade effect tends to dominate the common interest efficiency improvement effect for reasonable parameter values so that the international welfare effects would depend in general on the underlying assumptions about the currencies of price setting the stretch of production and trade across multiple stages of processing magnifies the efficiency improvement effect and dampens the terms of trade effect thus a monetary expansion can be mutually beneficial regardless of its source or the pricing assumptions

bayesian composite qualitative forecasting hog prices again a new method for forming composite qualitative forecasts is presented a set of qualitative forecasts is evaluated using auxiliary logit models to predict the probability of each forecast s correctness individual model forecasts are then combined on the basis of normalized values of these probabilities this method is demonstrated with three sets of forecasts on the direction of change in hog prices up or down the application shows that without any information on the manner in which the individual forecasts are generated this method can form a composite forecast that is superior according to a variety of metrics for evaluating qualitative forecasts

life cycle inventory policy characterizations for a single product recoverable system abstract this paper investigates the optimal inventory policies over the life cycle of a remanufacturable product the product is produced through manufacturing or remanufacturing benefiting from the long run optimal policies found through markov decision analysis the optimal or near optimal policy characterizations with practical structure are determined for every life cycle stage under several setup cost configurations the effects of changes in the demand and return rates on the optimal inventory policies are investigated through these policies further a performance comparison with a pull strategy is provided the performance of these long run policies is evaluated as well in a finite horizon setting and the importance of frequent policy revision over the product life cycle is illustrated numerically

sticky price models of the business cycle can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem we construct a quantitative equilibrium model with firms setting prices in a staggered fashion and use it to ask whether monetary shocks can generate business cycle fluctuations these fluctuations include persistent movements in output along with the other defining features of business cycles like volatile investment and smooth consumption we assume that prices are exogenously sticky for a short time persistent output fluctuations require endogenous price stickiness in the sense that firms choose not to change prices much when they can do so we find that for a wide range of parameter values the amount of endogenous stickiness is small thus we find that in a standard quantitative model staggered price setting alone does not generate business cycle fluctuations

a revised tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non zero censoring with an application to milk market participation in the ethiopian highlands fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations the associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since tobin econometrica 26 1958 24 this literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and when this is not the case imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model we conjecture that this bias can be significant affirm this from experiments and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using bayesian procedures the bias mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates bayesian estimation of the censored regression model are easy to implement work well in both small and large samples and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model these findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero censored tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk market participation in the ethiopian highlands

an investigation of lead time effects in manufacturing remanufacturing systems under simple push and pull control strategies in this paper we extend the push and pull control strategies defined by van der laan et al e a van der laan m salomon r dekker production planning and inventory control for remanufacturable durable products working paper 9531 a econometric institute erasmus university rotterdam the netherlands 1995 to evaluate numerically the effects of lead time duration and lead time variability on total expected costs in production inventory systems with remanufacturing although both strategies are non optimal they are relatively easy to analyse numerically and more importantly they are actually used in practice the most important outcomes of the study are that for both control strategies i manufacturing lead times have a larger influence on system costs than remanufacturing lead times ii a larger remanufacturing lead time may sometimes result in a cost decrease and iii a larger variability in the manufacturing lead time may sometimes result in a cost decrease

optimal monetary policy with international trade in intermediate inputs abstract this paper examines optimal monetary policy in a two country new keynesian model with international trade in intermediate inputs we derive the loss function of a cooperative monetary policymaker and find that the optimal monetary policy must target intermediate goods price inflation rates final goods price inflation rates final goods output gaps and relative price gaps we use the welfare loss under the optimal monetary policy as a benchmark to evaluate the welfare implications of three taylor type monetary policy rules a main finding is that the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is a key factor to determine which policy rule should be followed specifically when the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is high the policymaker should follow intermediate goods ppi based taylor rule whereas cpi based taylor rule should be followed when the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is intermediate or low

using bayesian techniques for data pooling in regional payroll forecasting this article adapts to the regional level a multicountry technique recently used by garcia ferrer highfield palm and zellner 1987 and extended by zellner and hong 1987 to forecast the growth rates in gross national product across nine countries this forecasting methodology is applied to the regional level by modeling payroll formation in seven ohio metropolitan areas we compare the forecasting performance of these procedures with that of a ridge estimator and find that the ridge estimator produces forecasts equal to or better than those from the newly proposed estimators we conclude that the ridge estimator which does not reference the pooled data information introduced by the newly proposed techniques may serve as a benchmark against which to judge the relative importance of this kind of information in improving forecasts

monetary shocks exchange rates and the extensive margin of exports abstract this paper develops a two country dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the relationship between the real exchange rate and the extensive margin of exports exchange rate pass through to consumer prices governs the relative strength of a demand channel onto the exporting decision of a firm with incomplete pass through a favorable movement in the real exchange rate generates increased export participation and an expansion in the extensive margin of exports this result is consistent with firm level studies and contributes to an ongoing empirical debate as to the importance of changes in export participation over the business cycle

production chains and general equilibrium aggregate dynamics abstract recent empirical studies reveal that monetary shocks can cause persistent fluctuations in aggregate output in this paper we propose a mechanism to help generate such persistence our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a vertical input output structure with staggered price contracts at each stage of production working through the input output relations and the timing of firms pricing decisions the model generates persistent fluctuations in aggregate output and the observed patterns of price dynamics following a monetary shock output responses are more persistent the greater the number of stages of production and the larger the share of intermediate inputs with a sufficient number of stages the persistence is arbitrarily large if the share of intermediate inputs is one at all but finitely many stages

international business cycles with complete markets abstract kehoe and perri 2002 show that a two country business cycle model with endogenously incomplete markets helps to resolve the international comovement puzzle baxter 1995 and the quantity anomaly backus et al 1992 backus et al 1995 we claim that a similar performance can be achieved without resorting to market incompleteness we show that a model with complete markets driven by productivity shocks alone can account for the international comovement puzzle our model features time nonseparable preferences that allow arbitrarily small wealth effects on labor supply it matches the data by predicting i positive cross country correlations of investment and hours worked ii realistic cross country correlations of consumption it reduces the gap between international correlations of output and consumption but fails to change their order unlike models with restricted international markets ours show little sensitivity to the parameterization of the forcing process

trade and protection with multistage production this paper analyses trade in manuf acutured goods that are produced via a vertical production structure with many stages where some value is added at each to an intermediate product to yield a good in process ready for the next stage we consider the stage at which a good is traded to be an economically endogenous variable with comparative advantage determining the pattern of production specialization by stages across countries we study how endowment changes and policy shifts move the margin of comparative advantage which thus provides a channel for resource allocation adjustment that is additional to the usual ones of factor substitution and changes in the quantity of output

business cycles in international historical perspective business cycle models seek to answer the question of why economies go through cycles of recession and recovery or boom and bust any theory of the business cycle makes two sorts of claims what shocks are most important in disturbing the economy and what economic structure is necessary for propagating these shocks for example one common explanation of business cycles begins with monetary shocks and then seeks to explain why monetary shocks are not purely neutral as neoclassical theory would have it and instead have real effects at least in the short term early models in this vein were often implicitly or explicitly based on the proposition that markets do not clear continuously early equilibrium real business cycle theories instead emphasized the importance of real shocks especially to technology which may cause socially efficient fluctuations even when markets are always in equilibrium more recent models have attempted to marry the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics with the substantive keynesian ideas that money is not neutral and that economic fluctuations are costly new keynesian theories of the business cycle admit the possibility of a number of economic shocks including monetary and technology shocks but then focus on explaining how nominal price rigidities within the economy can turn these shocks into recessions or booms other models show that business cycles driven by keynesian animal spirits are consistent with rigorous microfoundations and rational expectations seeking empirical evidence for and against these various approaches we turn business cycle theories loose on perhaps the greatest macroeconomic laboratory

multinationals multi plant economies and the gains from trade a general equilibrium model of a multinational enterprise based on economies of multi plant operation is developed these economies are modelled as arising from the existence of a joint input whose productivity in each production facility is independent of the number of facilities maintained by a firm the multinational thus offers the world increased technical efficiency by eliminating the duplication of the joint input that would occur with independent national firms since this technical efficiency may come at the expense of increased market power the full determinants of home country host country and world welfare are considered

derationalizing tariffs with specialized intermediate inputs and differentiated final goods abstract existing analyses of differentiated products suggest that a small tariff must be welfare improving as a positive terms of trade effect and an increase in the number of domestic varieties outweighs the loss of foreign varieties this result appears to be due to an arbitrary assumption that the intra sectoral elasticity of substitution in consumption exceeds the inter sectoral elasticity this paper demonstrates that complementarity among specialized inputs or differentiated final goods implies that a small tariff can derationalize production sufficiently such that the number of domestic inputs goods falls and welfare is reduced

the transmission of monetary policy in a multisector economy this article constructs and estimates a sticky price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous production sectors firms in different sectors vary in their price rigidity production technology and the combination of material and investment inputs in particular firms buy inputs from all sectors using the actual input output matrix and capital flow table of the u s economy by relaxing the standard assumption of symmetry this model allows idiosyncratic sectoral dynamics in response to monetary policy shocks the model is estimated by the generalized method of moments using sectoral and aggregate u s time series

monetary policy in an era of global supply chains abstract we study the implications of global supply chains for the design of monetary policy using a small open economy new keynesian model with multiple stages of production within the family of simple monetary policy rules with commitment a rule that targets separate producer price inflation at different production stages in addition to output gap and real exchange rate is found to deliver a higher welfare level than alternative policy rules as an economy becomes more open measured by export share the optimal weight on the upstream inflation rises relative to that on the final stage inflation if we have to choose among aggregate price indicators targeting ppi inflation yields a smaller welfare loss than targeting cpi inflation alone as the production chain becomes longer the optimal weight on ppi inflation in the policy rule that targets both ppi and cpi inflation will also rise a trade cost shock such as a rise in the import tariff can alter the optimal weights on different inflation variables

business cycles and the exchange rate system some international evidence this paper investigates the differences in time series behavior of key economic aggregates under alternative exchange rate systems we use a postwar sample of 49 countries to compare the behavior of output consumption trade flows government consumption spending and real exchange rates under alternative exchange rate systems pegged floating and cooperative systems such as the ems we then examine evidence from two particular episodes involving canada and ireland of changes in the exchange rate system aside from greater variability of real exchange rates under flexible than under pegged nominal exchange rate systems we find little evidence of systematic differences in the behavior of macroeconomic aggregates or international trade flows under alternative exchange rate systems these results are of interest because a large class of theoretical models implies that the nominal exchange rate system has important effects on a number of macroeconomic quantities

goods prices and exchange rates what have we learned import prices typically change by a smaller proportion than the exchange rate between the exporting and importing country recent research indicates that common currency relative prices for similar goods exported to different markets are highly correlated with exchange rates between those markets this evidence suggests that incomplete pass through is a consequence of third degree price discrimination while distance matters for market segmentation borders have independent effects the source of the border effect has not been clearly identified furthermore there is little evidence yet to suggest substantial market power is implied by the observed price discrimination

the new open economy macroeconomics a survey since the 1995 publication of obsteld and rogoff s redux model there has been an outpouring of research on open economy dynamic general equilibrium models that incorporate imperfect competition and nominal rigidities this paper offers an interim survey of this recent literature 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

globalization outsourcing and wage inequality there is considerable debate over whether international trade has contributed to the declining economic fortunes of less skilled workers one issue that has become lost in the current discussion is how firms respond to import competition and how these responses in turn are transmitted to the labor market in previous work we have argued that outsourcing by which we mean the import of intermediate inputs by domestic firms has contributed to an increase in the relative demand for skilled labor in the united states if firms respond to import competition from low wage countries by moving non skill intensive activities abroad then trade will shift employment towards skilled workers within industries in this paper we extend our previous work by combining new import data from the revised nber trade database with disaggregated data on input purchases from the census of manufactures we construct industry by industry estimates of outsourcing for the period 1972 1990 and reexamine whether outsourcing has contributed to an increase in relative demand for skilled labor our main finding is that outsourcing can account for 31 51 of the increase in the relative demand for skilled labor that occurred in u s manufacturing industries during the 1980s compared to our previous estimate of 15 33 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

real exchange rates and macroeconomics evidence and theory since the early 1980s a large body of research has thrown doubt on the relevance of macroeconomic models for understanding exchange rates the authors argue that a balanced reading of recent literature in exchange rate economics gives a more optimistic assessment many studies have established the pertinence of long run purchasing power parity ppp and the explanatory power of macroeconomic fundamentals in real exchange rate fluctuations a reasonably strong case can be made for a traditional macroeocnomic interpretation of real exchange rates which emphasizes short run price stickiness but long run ppp but a central new ingredient in this interpretation is the presence of international commodity market segmentation and persistent deviations from the law of one price an example is given of a dynamic general equilibrium model that can reproduce some of the observed features of real exchange rate fluctuations

the role of intermediate goods in international monetary cooperation abstract this paper investigates the implications of intermediate goods for optimal monetary policy in open economies and particularly focuses on the welfare gains that result from monetary cooperation in a relatively standard two country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with input output relations this paper demonstrates that introducing intermediate goods can amplify the welfare gains caused by cost push shocks by an order of magnitude larger a detailed analysis of equilibrium dynamics highlights a new channel that is absent in the previous literature non cooperative central banks respond differently to shocks in the intermediate goods market versus shocks in the final goods market even if these shocks generate the same distortions when the two central banks cooperate furthermore it is demonstrated that increasing the degree of openness in the intermediate goods market can reduce the welfare gains from monetary cooperation this casts doubt on whether the recent trend in international economic integration justifies the potential need for international monetary cooperation

bayesian estimation of possibly similar yield densities implications for rating crop insurance contracts the agricultural act of 2014 solidified insurance as the cornerstone of u s agricultural policy the congressional budget office 2014 estimates that this act will increase spending on agricultural insurance programs by 5 7 billion to a total of 89 8 billion over the next decade in light of the sizable resources directed toward these programs accurate rating of insurance contracts is of the utmost importance to producers private insurance companies and the federal government unlike most forms of insurance agricultural insurance is plagued by a paucity of spatially correlated data a novel interpretation of bayesian model averaging is used to estimate a set of possibly similar densities that offers greater efficiency if the set of densities are similar while seemingly not losing any if the set of densities are dissimilar simulations indicate that finite sample performance in particular small sample performance is quite promising the proposed approach does not require knowledge of the form or extent of any possible similarities is relatively easy to implement admits correlated data and can be used with either parametric or nonparametric estimators we use the proposed approach to estimate u s crop insurance premium rates for area type programs and develop a test to evaluate its efficacy an out of sample game between private insurance companies and the federal government highlights the policy implications for a variety of crop state combinations consistent with the simulation results the performance of the proposed approach with respect to rating area type insurance in particular small sample performance remains quite promising

how do the trans pacific economies affect the usa an industrial sector approach this paper studies how the trans pacific region affects the us economy in terms of business cycle transmission we use a large data set consisting of disaggregated sectoral industrial production indexes from selected countries in the region and employ a factor augmented vector autoregression favar approach to analyse the transmission of shocks in different industries we find that a positive output shock in the entire trans pacific region has positive effects on the majority of us manufacturing sectors we also find that sectoral shocks in five sectors of the trans pacific region have a large impact on the overall us economy three of the five sectors displayed strong same sector responses relative to the overall response suggesting that vertical production linkages might play a key role in the transmission of shocks our results highlight the importance of examining industrial sectors in studying the transmission of shocks in the trans pacific region

international real business cycles we ask whether a two country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles with this question in mind we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data the most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries in the data outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions in the model we see the opposite

understanding the cross country effects of u s technology shocks abstract business cycles are substantially correlated across countries yet most existing models are not able to generate substantial transmission through international trade we show that the nature of such transmission depends fundamentally on the features determining the responsiveness of labor supply and labor demand to international relative prices we augment a standard international macroeconomic model to incorporate three key features a weak short run wealth effect on labor supply variable capital utilization and imported intermediate inputs for production this model can generate large and significant endogenous transmission of technology shocks through international trade we demonstrate this by estimating the model using data for canada and the united states with limited information bayesian methods we find that this model can account for the substantial transmission of permanent u s technology shocks to canadian aggregate variables such as output and hours documented in a structural vector autoregression transmission through international trade is found to explain the majority of the business cycle comovement between the united states and canada