dynamic banking a reconsideration financially intermediated and stock market consumption investment allocations with and without governmental interventions are compared in a welfare sense in overlapping generation economies with and without shocks to agents intertemporal preferences we first show that in economies with preference shocks governmental interventions subject to the same information requirements as those imposed on financial intermediaries lead to stock market allocations that are not inferior to those attained under financial intermediation second we argue that the necessary interventions are qualitatively no different from those required to implement stationary optimal allocations in olg models without shocks to agents intertemporal consumption preferences

the international debt crisis and bank loan loss reserve decisions the signaling content of partially anticipated events the huge increases in loan loss provisions by major bank holding companies bhcs in 1987 were a signal of impending asset writedowns of loans to less developed countries ldcs 1 since loan loss reserve decisions like asset write downs are simply bookkeeping adjustments significant market reactions to such announcements should not be expected strong and meyer 1987 however found a positive and statistically significant cumulative average residual after the announcement of asset write downs 2 thakor 1987 argues that write downs have a price effect not because they mean much by themselves but because they signal events to come specifically he sees write downs as a signal of economic value enhancing corporate restructuring to come in the future p 662 we use event study methods to examine security returns for the twenty five largest u s bank holding companies surrounding citicorp s 3 billion loan loss

financial intermediation with risk aversion the paper extends diamond s 1984 analysis of financial intermediation to allow for risk aversion of the intermediary it shows that as in the case of risk neutrality the agency costs of external funds provided to an intermediary are relatively small if the intermediary is financing many entrepreneurs with stochastically independent returns even though the intermediary is adding rather than subdividing risks the underlying large numbers argument is not invalidated by the presence of risk aversion with risk aversion of entrepreneurs as well as the intermediary financial intermediation provides insurance as well as finance in contrast to earlier results on optimal intermediation policies under risk neutrality the paper shows that when an intermediary is financing many entrepreneurs with stochastically independent returns optimal intermediation policies must shift return risks away from risk averse entrepreneurs and impose them on the intermediary or on final investors

on the frequency of large stock returns putting booms and busts into perspective textabstractnumerous articles have investigated the distribution of share prices and find that the returns are fat tailed nevertheless there is still controversy about the amount of probability mass in the tails and hence about the most appropriate distribution to use in modeling returns this controversy has proven hard to resolve as the alternatives are non nested we employ extreme value theory focusing exclusively on the larger observations in order to assess the tail shape within a unified framework we find that at least the first two moments exist this enables one to generate robust probabilities on large returns which put the recent stock market swings into historical perspective

sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities what are the gains from trade title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments caaa established a market for transferable sulfur dioxide so2 emission allowances among electric utilities this market offers firms facing high marginal abatement costs the opportunity to purchase the right to emit so2 from firms with lower costs and this is expected to yield cost savings compared to a command and control approach to environmental regulation this paper uses econometrically estimated marginal abatement cost functions for power plants affected by title iv of the caaa to evaluate the performance of the so2 allowance market specifically we investigate whether the much heralded fall in the cost of abating so2 compared to original estimates can be attributed to allowance trading we demonstrate that for plants that use low sulfur coal to reduce so2 emissions technical change and the fall in prices of low sulfur coal have lowered marginal abatement cost curves by over 50 percent since 1985 the flexibility to take advantage of these chan

forecasting and trading monetary policy effects on the riskless yield curve with regime switching nelson siegel models abstract we use 1982 2014 data on the us riskless yield curve to show that regime switching dynamics in nelson siegel factor models extended to encompass variables that summarize the state of monetary policy lead to superior predictive accuracy such spread in forecasting power turns out to be statistically significant even controlling for parameter uncertainty and sample variation exploiting regimes we obtain evidence that the increase in predictive accuracy is stronger during the great financial crisis when monetary policy underwent a significant sudden shift although more caution applies in comparisons to a naive random walk benchmark over a few sub samples and when transaction costs are accounted for we report that the increase in predictive power owed to the combination of regimes and of variables that capture the stance of unconventional monetary policies is tradeable we devise and test butterfly strategies that exploit the forecasts from the models and obtain evidence of risk adjusted profits both per se and in comparisons to simpler models

repudiation and renegotiation the case of sovereign debt a model of sovereign debt is analyzed in this model renegotiation arises in a natural way because information is incomplete the renegotiation game has many equilibria the standard contract theory approach suggests that the parties should agree to choose the efficient equilibrium strategies when the contract is written refinements of the equilibrium notion such as strategic stability suggest that a very inefficient equilibrium may be chosen the tension between these two approaches raises deep questions about the correct way to analyze a large class of contracting problems copyright 1989 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the asymptotic distribution of extreme stock market returns this article presents a study of extreme stock market price movements according to extreme value theory the form of the distribution of extreme returns is precisely known and independent of the process generating returns using data for an index of the most traded stocks on the new york stock exchange for the period 1885 1990 the author shows empirically that the extreme returns obey a frechet distribution copyright 1996 by university of chicago press

market based empirical research in accounting a review interpretation and extension a decade and a half of the most concerted and ambitious research effort in accounting history is evaluated here it is the search into the relationship between publicly disclosed accounting information and the consequences of the use of this information by the major group of usersequity investors as such consequences are reflected in characteristics of common stocks traded in major exchanges this research effort known as market based accounting research mbar obtained its impetus from major developments in finance theory during the late 1950s and early 1960s these were the portfolio selection theory and its offspring the capital asset pricing model capm and the concept of informationally efficient capital markets ecm subsequent developments in information economics agency theory and optimal incentive signaling models were quickly incorporated into mbar while the impetus to this line of research came from other disciplines accounting was not only a beneficiary but also to a modest extent a benefactor mbar is relevant to the study of capital market efficiency the capm information economics and regulation this contribution distinguishes mbar from most accounting areas whose contributions to other disciplines are negligible in

accounting for retail land sales analysis of a mandated change abstract this study assesses the stock market s reaction to a series of events leading up to a mandated change in accounting for retail land sales evidence is found to support the conclusion that the market reacted to some of these events in a manner consistent with the effects of the accounting change on debt annagement contracts a distinctive aspect of the analysis is the efficient use of security returns data to detect market reactions and to derive empirical distributions of test statistics employed the analysis is extended by a model for grouping regression equations known as seemingly unrelated regressions however the gains from this extension are modest

interest rate and liquidity risk management and the european money supply process abstract the monetary setup of the european central bank ecb centers around short term securities repurchase agreements repos which ensure the flexibility of its money market management however a flexible repo based monetary policy exposes banks to both interest rate risk and liquidity risk this paper investigates the consequences for the money supply process and the conduct of monetary policy we develop a loan supply model with maturity transformation and show how banks respond when future monetary policy is expected to become tighter or more uncertain our results also shed light on the rationale behind the use of different pricing rules in the ecb s repo auctions

gender domestic labor time and wage inequality this paper explores the relationship between domestic labor and wage labor by estimating the relative influence of hours spent in domestic labor e g housework and child care on women s and men s wages it is hypothesized that involvement in domestic activities negatively affects wages and is likely to be an important factor in explaining women s lower wages relative to men findings from ols regression analyses of white currently employed currently married women and men indicate that domestic labor time significantly decreases both sexes wages in order to assess whether this relationship differs by class the sex specific earnings equations also are estimated within the working class and the non working class the negative effect of domestic labor time on both sexes income persists in the within class analyses working class men are more vulnerable to the detrimental influence of domestic production unexpectedly housework and child care time decreases non workingclass women s wages more so than working class women s wages it is noted that these findings should be interpreted with caution due to the cross sectional nature of the data which precludes an unequivocal assessment of potential nonrecursivity in the linkages among key variables in the model overall the findings imply that a more equitable distribution of work in the home is necessary before labor market inequalities between the sexes can be ameliorated

the role of no arbitrage on forecasting lessons from a parametric term structure model abstract parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to numerous problems in fixed income markets including pricing hedging managing risk as well as to the study of monetary policy implications in turn dynamic term structure models equipped with stronger economic structure have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts in this paper we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test whether no arbitrage affects forecasting we construct cross sectional allowing arbitrages and arbitrage free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out of sample interest rates based on us treasury yield data we find that no arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts arbitrage free versions achieve overall smaller biases and root mean square errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons furthermore a decomposition of forecasts into forward rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium

the market valuation effects of reserve regulation abstract we demonstrate that the financial market s reaction to changes in reserve regulation implies that reserve requirements are an excise tax on banking activities changes in reserve requirements do not influence yields on treasury securities or returns on broad based portfolios of nonfinancial stocks and thus do not impound new information about monetary policy moreover changes in reserve requirements have an impact on nonbank financial firms that is opposite in sign to that of banks this suggests that reserve requirements shift the locus of some financial activities from the banking sector to the nonbank sector of the financial system

syndicated loan announcements and the the market value of the banking firm this paper examines valuation effects on the stocks of fifteen participating money center banks of 774 announcements of syndicated loans representing announcements of investment decisions for the lenders the authors find that announcements of ldc loans in the 1970s especially those to latin american borrowers are associated with negative abnormal returns to the lending banks while announcements of loans to u s corporate borrowers in the 1980s especially those for takover finance are associated with positive abnormal returns while a number of testable predictions are consistent with the negative abnormal returns for latin american loans they explain response to takeover loans with a return to liquidity hypothesis copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

a new approach to measuring financial contagion this article proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets our measure of contagion captures the coincidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions we characterize the extent of contagion its economic significance and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s we find that contagion is predictable and depends on regional interest rates exchange rate changes and conditional stock return volatility evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed

bank foreign lending mandatory disclosure rules and the reaction of bank stock prices to the mexican debt crisis this paper examines the effects of the mexican debt mora torium in august 1982 on bank valuation the mexican default resulted in the passage of regulations requiring public disclosure of bank fo reign lending exposure the authors find that even in the absence of public disclosure regulations investors were able to discriminate a mong banks with different levels of exposure copyright 1987 by the university of chicago

bank portfolio exposure to emerging markets and its effects on bank market value abstract this study estimates a model of banking company equity returns taking into consideration book value and market value measures of their exposure to emerging markets debt in this estimation general systematic market factors such as the rate of return on the s p500 stock index and yields on a constant maturity 5 year treasury note are held constant such that the exposure variables are accounting for effects due to banks exposure to emerging market debt the results although not uniform among banking companies support the hypothesis that the extent of exposure to emerging market debt are factored into the valuation of banking company equity contemporaneously the inclusion of a market value indicator adds to the explanation of equity returns of some banks it is also clear that knowing the extent of the exposure on a book value basis is important information alone that may allow investors to take account of or evaluate the effects of changes in banking company equity valuation from ldc debt exposures we also perform an event study for three major debt crises to determine whether the market recognizes the effects of these events on bank valuation the event study results show that there is little information from identifying the time period of the crises on banking company equity returns explanations for this are that the information of these possible crises has been embedded in bank changes in exposure and that the market valuation of the emerging market debt is already accounted for by our model

market expectations of the effects of the tax reform act of 1986 on banking organizations abstract this study investigates market expectations regarding the effect of the tax reform act of 1986 on the banking industry the evidence shows that overall the tax reform did not adversely affect the stocks of banking institutions the findings suggest that overall banking organizations were expected to largely mitigate any negative effects of the tax reform on their cash flow by rebalancing and or repricing their portfolios of assets and liabilities the most significant provision of the new act was the limitation on foreign tax credits interestingly the markets did not expect any adverse valuation effects from the recapture of loan loss reserves or the elimination of the interest deductibility for carrying tax exempt securities

the simple economics of bank fragility banks are linked through the interbank deposit mar ket participations like syndicated loans and deposit interest rate risk the similarity in exposures carries the potential for systemic breakdowns this potential is either weak or strong depending on whether the linkages remain or vanish asymptotically it is shown that the linearity of the bank portfolios in the exposures in combi nation with a condition on the tails of the marginal distributions of these exposures determines whether the potential for systemic risk is weak or strong we show that if the exposures have marginal normal distributions the potential for systemic risk is weak while if e g the student distributions apply the potential is strong

market evidence on the effective maturity of bank assets and liabilities the recent years increase in interest rate volatility has intensified concern over the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate or funding risk since the effect of interest rate changes on the equity value of a bank depends on the maturity or duration of the bank s assets and liabilities assessing an individual bank s interest rate risk exposure requires information about the maturity composition of its portfolio it is difficult however to assess a bank s risk exposure from balance sheet data because several important asset and liability items have theoretically ambiguous effective maturities in a frictionless market a security s effective maturity will equal its stated maturity or time to repricing with market imperfections e g depositors transaction or information costs however the equilibrium cost of some deposit items may respond sluggishly or incompletely to market rate changes see hester and pierce 1975 or flannery 1982 such liabilities market values discounted at market rates would therefore fluctuate with the level of interest rates these liabilities are sometimes called core deposits which manifest sticky responses to market rate changes we define an asset or liability s effective maturity as the maturity of a fixed rate perfectly elastically supplied security with the same market value elasticity as the bank balance sheet item under consideration naturally a balance sheet item s effective maturity is the relevant determinant of its contribution to the bank s overall interest rate risk sensitivity

the market valuation effects of the financial institutions reform recovery and enforcement act of 1989 abstract this paper evaluates the stock market effects of events leading to the passage of the financial institutions reforms recovery and enforcement act of 1989 the evidence suggests that the signing of the act by president bush produced positive abnormal returns for both banks and s ls and that the addition of tougher capital standards produced positive returns for s ls in addition the act increased the risk of both banks and s ls

contagion risk in the australian banking and property sectors abstract the australian banking system emerged from the global crisis virtually unhurt with most banks still profitable adequately capitalized and with aa credit ratings are there any risks or vulnerabilities in this success story this paper analyzes australia s systemic banking risk and attempts to determine if this risk increased with the recent global crisis and whether this risk is related to the downturn experienced in the real estate market we use extreme value theory to measure banks and property firms univariate value at risk as well as multivariate intra sector and inter sector contagion risks of the 13 sectors analyzed we find that the property sector exhibits the highest level of extremal dependence with the banking sector the credit crisis significantly increased the probability of a bank or property firm crashing moreover contagion risks significantly increased not only within the banking and property sectors but also between those sectors

should bank runs be prevented abstract this paper extends diamond and dybvig s model j political economy 91 1983 401 to a framework in which bank assets are risky there is aggregate uncertainty about the demand for liquidity in the population and some individuals receive a signal about bank asset quality others must then try to deduce from observed withdrawals whether an unfavorable signal was received by this group or whether liquidity needs happen to be high in this environment both information induced and pure panic runs will occur however banks can prevent them by designing the deposit contract appropriately it is shown that in some cases it is optimal for the bank to prevent runs but there are situations where the bank run allocation may be welfare superior

does interbank borrowing reduce bank risk in this paper we investigate whether banks that borrow from other banks have lower risk levels we concentrate on a large sample of central and eastern european banks which allows us to explore the impact of interbank lending when exposures are long term and interbank borrowers are small banks the results of the empirical analysis generally confirm the hypothesis that long term interbank exposures result in lower risk of the borrowing banks

estimating bilateral exposures in the german interbank market is there a danger of contagion abstract credit risk associated with interbank lending may lead to domino effects where the failure of one bank results in the failure of other banks not directly affected by the initial shock recent work in economic theory shows that this risk of contagion depends on the precise pattern of interbank linkages we use balance sheet information to estimate a matrix of bilateral credit relationships for the german banking system and test whether the breakdown of a single bank can lead to contagion we find that in the absence of a safety net there is considerable scope for contagion that could affect a large proportion of the banking system the financial safety net in this case institutional guarantees for saving banks and cooperative banks considerably reduces but does not eliminate the danger of contagion even so the failure of a single bank could lead to the breakdown of up to 15 of the banking system in terms of assets

tail risk and systemic risk of us and eurozone financial institutions in the wake of the global financial crisis we evaluate multiple market based measures for us and eurozone individual bank tail risk and bank systemic risk we apply statistical extreme value analysis to the tails of bank equity capital losses to estimate the likelihood of individual institutions financial distress as well as individual banks exposure to each other spillover risk and to global shocks extreme systematic risk the estimation procedure presupposes that bank equity returns are heavy tailed and tail dependent as identifying assumption using both us and eurozone banks allows one to make a cross atlantic comparison of tail risks and systemic stability we also assess to what extent magnitudes of tail risk and systemic risk have been altered by the global financial crisis the results suggest that both tail risk and systemic risk in the us are higher than in the eurozone regardless of the considered sample period

market reaction to the thrift bailout abstract this paper examines the share price reaction of depository institutions to the financial institutions reform recovery and enforcement act firrea passed august 1989 we find a favorable share price response for thrifts which could be attributed to enhanced depositor confidence reduced risk premiums on deposits reduced agency costs or reduced loan losses among other reasons however the effects of firrea on commercial banks were negligible an intra industry analysis revealed that the variation in share price responses could not be explained by cross sectional differences in thrift capital levels

the term structure of investment and the banks insurance function abstract the article re examines the proposition first formulated rigorously by bryant a model of reserves bank runs and deposit insurance journal of banking and finance 4 335 344 1980 and diamond and dybvig bank runs deposit insurance and liquidity journal of political economy 91 401 419 1983 that in a production economy with stochastic liquidity shocks to the household sector banks serve to provide optimal intertemporal insurance to consumers the paper argues that in order to understand the moral hazard problems inherent in this insurance problem it is too narrow to consider solely the role of banks as providers of liquidity the paper develops a model with several investment opportunities in which banks have the additional function of asset diversification this pooling of intermediation functions is shown to reduce the moral hazard problem thereby enhancing the stability of depository contracts and increasing the scope of the banks insurance function

optimal financial crises empirical evidence suggests that banking panics are related to the business cycle and are not simply the result of sunspots panics occur when depositors perceive that the returns on bank assets are going to be unusually low we develop a simple model of this in this setting bank runs can be first best efficient they allow efficient risk sharing between early and late withdrawing depositors and they allow banks to hold efficient portfolios however if costly runs or markets for risky assets are introduced central bank intervention of the right kind can lead to a pareto improvement in welfare from the earliest times banks have been plagued by the problem of bank runs in which many or all of the bank s depositors attempt to withdraw their funds simultaneously because banks issue liquid liabilities in the form of deposit contracts but invest in illiquid assets in the form of loans they are vulnerable to runs that can lead to closure and liquidation a financial crisis or banking panic occurs when depositors at many or all of the banks in a region or a country attempt to withdraw their funds simultaneously prior to the twentieth century banking panics occurred frequently in europe and the united states panics were generally regarded as a bad thing and the development of central banks to eliminate panics and ensure financial stability has been an important feature of the history of financial systems it has been a long and involved process the first cerntral bank the bank of sweden was established more than 300 years ago the bank of england played an especially important role in the development of effective stabilization policies in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries by the end of the nineteenth century banking panics had been eliminated in europe the last true panic in england was the overend gurney company crisis of 1866

the federal funds market excess reserves and unconventional monetary policy abstract following the bankruptcy of lehman brothers interbank borrowing and lending dropped whereas reserve holdings of depository institutions skyrocketed as the fed injected liquidity into the u s banking sector this paper introduces bank liquidity risk and limited market participation into a real business cycle model with ex ante identical financial intermediaries and shows in an analytically tractable way how interbank trade and excess reserves emerge in general equilibrium investigating the role of the federal funds market and unconventional monetary policy for the propagation of aggregate real and financial shocks i find that federal funds market participation is irrelevant in response to standard supply and demand shocks whereas it matters for uncertainty shocks i e mean preserving spreads in the cross section of liquidity risk liquidity injections by the central bank can absorb the effects of financial shocks on the real economy although excess reserves might increase and federal funds might be crowded out as a side effect

the strategic analysis of intermediation the importance and the special character of intermediation were recognized as early as in the eighteenth century and have been stressed by many authors afterwards in spite of this long tradition comparatively little work has been done on the details of the economic theory of intermediation instead it was assumed that intermediation can simply be treated like any other economic activity in contrast i will argue that the theory of intermediation requires a specific game theoretic analysis and moreover that many preconceptions that one might have on the basis of standard microeconomic theory are wrong

the wealth effects of the risk based capital requirement in banking the evidence from the capital market abstract the imposition of risk based capital requirements has been advocated by some regulatory authorities as a means of mitigating the incentive problems created by fixed premium deposit insurance however their imposition also constitutes a requirement to maintain an exogenously influenced capital structure which may adversely affect the values of the firms involved this paper examines the wealth effects of the announcement of the basle committee s intention to impose across international boundaries a pre determined minimum level of risk adjusted capital we find that in general the equity values of a sample of large publicly traded banks decrease at the time of the announcement further those banks with capital levels which are deficient relative to the mandated levels suffer the largest relative losses

financial intermediation and delegated monitoring this paper develops a theory of financial intermediation based on minimizing the cost of monitoring information which is useful for resolving incentive problems between borrowers and lenders it presents a characterization of the costs of providing incentives for delegated monitoring by a financial intermediary diversification within an intermediary serves to reduce these costs even in a risk neutral economy the paper presents some more general analysis of the effect of diversification on resolving incentive problems in the environment assumed in the model debt contracts with costly bankruptcy are shown to be optimal the analysis has implications for the portfolio structure and capital structure of intermediaries

regional reciprocal interstate banking the supreme court and the resolution of uncertainty abstract in 1985 the supreme court affirmed the ability of the states to enter into regional reciprocal compacts in northeast bancorp inc et al v board of governors of the federal reserve system the current study tests the hypotheses that the court s decision exerted a material influence on the wealth of shareholders in bank holding companies bhcs operating within regional banking compacts and that shareholder reactions were affected by the size of their bhc as a proxy for the likelihood that a bhc would be an acquiror vs a target in the new legislative climate the analysis uses a sample of 52 bhcs that were members of regional interstate banking compacts and a control sample of 107 bhcs based in states that had not passed such enabling legislation as of the event date both portfolios of bhcs exhibited a statistically significant average positive reaction to the supreme court decision further there is evidence that the average bhc in each group reacted significantly differently to that event the reactions of bhcs in regional compacts were associated negatively with their relative size within their respective regional compact but related positively to their absolute size interestingly the reactions of bhcs in the control sample were also negatively associated with their relative size within their home office s state but also positively related to their absolute size all in all shareholders viewed the interstate banking opportunities brought by the supreme court decision to be consistent with their interests

liquidity provision banking and the allocation of interest rate risk abstract the paper studies the efficient allocation of technology induced interest rate risk and the implications of such risk for efficient liquidity provision complete immunization against interest rate risk is shown to be undesirable as it precludes the exploitation of favourable reinvestment opportunities under the assumptions of diamond dybvig 1983 interest induced valuation risks of long term assets should be born by early withdrawers reinvestment opportunity risks of short term assets by late withdrawers efficient liquidity provision thus entails no shifting of interest rate risk in the absence of additional moral hazard second best allocations can be implemented through unregulated competition among banks

capital markets financial intermediaries and liquidity supply abstract we study a dynamic economy endowed with a sequence of overlapping generations of consumers and production processes and where productive assets are illiquid and consumption preferences are subject to uninsurable demand for liquidity we characterize the steady states that can be achieved with alternative financial systems we show that infinitely lived financial intermediaries offering a liability with age dependent restrictions may implement a social optimum with full insurance if instead they offer anonymous unrestricted contracts then only second best consumption allocations with partial insurance obtain we also examine the consumption allocations available when agents can trade shares in competitive stock markets while allowing for trade across generations may or may not improve upon generational autarky we show that this competitive equilibrium is not a social optimum and is dominated by a system of infinitely lived unrestricted intermediaries

bank capital regulation and the valuation effects of latin american debt moratoriums abstract we examine effects of the mexican and bolivian debt moratoriums on bank share prices and analyze whether bank capital regulation influences these returns we hypothesize that investors perceived that capital deficient banks with exposure to this debt would sustain greater regulatory costs due to increased pressure from regulators to strengthen their capital bases or to reduce leverage consistent with this hypothesis we find that the impact of these debt moratoriums on bank stock returns is more unfavorable for capital deficient banks than for banks that met regulatory standards of capital adequacy

the reaction of bank stock prices to the international debt crisis abstract in this paper we develop a cross sectional regression approach to estimate the impact of foreign loan exposure on the pricing of u s bank stocks a new approach is required because news about foreign loan problems may arrive incremently over time rather than reaching the market on a few specific dates the way earnings and dividend announcements do consistent with this interpretation we find that foreign loan exposure had a significant impact on the pricing of u s bank stocks during the years 1982 and 1983 but that the stock prices adjusted continually over the two year period rather than jumping on a few particular days

extreme us stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9 11 we apply extreme value analysis to us sectoral stock indices in order to assess whether tail risk measures like value at risk and extremal linkages were significantly altered by 9 11 we test whether semi parametric quantile estimates of downside risk and upward potential have increased after 9 11 the same methodology allows one to estimate probabilities of joint booms and busts for pairs of sectoral indices or for a sectoral index and a market portfolio the latter probabilities measure the sectoral response to macro shocks during periods of financial stress so called tail s taking 9 11 as the sample midpoint we find that tail s often increase in a statistically and economically significant way this might be due to perceived risk of new terrorist attacks copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

maids appliances and couples housework the demand for inputs to domestic production maids household appliances and housework time are key inputs to domestic production this study uses data from the uk and france to estimate the effects of resource prices on the demand for these inputs we conclude that higher opportunity costs of time increase the likelihood of having maid services and appliances women s time costs are also positively related to his housework time and negatively related to hers finally maid service appears to be a closer substitute for housework time on weekend days than weekdays suggesting smaller labour supply effects than anticipated by earlier literature abstract from author

interest margins and bank regulation in central america and the caribbean abstract this paper examines empirically the determinants of bank interest margins in central america and the caribbean over the period 1998 2014 a particular focus is set on the impact of differences in the regulatory environment and market structure across countries in explaining the interest margins of individual banks our results suggest that bank market power operating costs credit risk and liquid asset holdings increase the margin between loan and deposit rates while increased income diversification and gdp growth are associated with lower loan deposit spreads when considering information on banking regulation we find strong evidence to support our main hypothesis that improvements in market quality and liberalization have a significant effect on interest margins more specifically reductions in entry requirements to banking higher involvement of foreign banks and increased financial statement transparency are associated with significant reductions in interest margins

employment schedules among dual earner spouses and the division of household labor by gender i extend the research on how employment schedules affect family life and which factors determine a husband s share in household labor i present a new specification of the concept of available time among dual earner couples the amount of overlap in hours in spouses employment schedules and whether a spouse works day evening night or rotating shifts i show that variations in employment schedules are significant determinants of a husband s share in traditionally female household tasks also important are certain aspects of spouses resources gender role ideology and stage in the life course interpretations of these findings take into account whether it is the husband s and or wife s hours performing household tasks that are affected by these variables since husband s share depends on both the data come from the 1986 1987 national survey of families and households and my findings support the view that modest increases in husbands participation in household labor may result from the growing diversity in employment schedules among american workers

an extreme value approach to estimating volatility and value at risk this article determines the type of asymptotic distribution for the extreme changes in u s treasury yields the thin tailed gumbel and exponential distributions are strongly rejected against the fat tailed frechet and pareto distributions the empirical results indicate that the volatility of maximal and minimal changes in interest rates declines as time to maturity rises yielding a downward sloping volatility curve for the extremes the article proposes an extreme value approach to estimating value at risk and shows that the statistical theory of extremes provides a more accurate approach for risk management and value at risk var calculations than the standard models

capital requirements and the behaviour of commercial banks abstract i study the consequences of capital regulations on the portfolio choices of commercial banks elaborating on previous work by kareken and wallace 1978 koehn and santomero 1980 and kim and santomero 1988 i obtain the following results if the objective of commercial banks is maximization of the market value of their future profits value maximizing banks capital regulations cannot prevent banks from choosing very specialized and very risky portfolios risk based insurance premia are in fact the relevant instrument for that purpose on the other hand if banks behave as portfolio managers utility maximizing banks capital regulations can be effective but only if the weights used in the computation of the ratio are proportional to the systematic risks of the assets their betas because of limited liability of commercial banks a minimum capital regulation or a closing rule may become necessary as well to prevent failing banks from betting for resurrection

on the welfare equivalence of asset markets and banking in diamond dybvig economies why do people choose bank deposit contracts over a direct participation in asset markets in their seminal paper diamond and dybvig s 1983 answer this question by claiming that bank deposit contracts can implement allocations that are welfare superior to asset markets equilibria the present paper demonstrates that this claim is false whenever the asset market participants are highly rational

u s banks crises and bailouts from mexico to ltcm this paper investigates the impact on bank stock prices of emerging market currency crises and bailouts the stock market distinguishes between banks with exposure to a crisis country and other banks in general banks with exposures to a crisis country are affected adversely by currency events and positively by bailouts other banks are mostly unaffected by events in countries experiencing a crisis the paper uses the impact of the ltcm crisis on bank stock prices to put the emerging market events in perspective the ltcm crisis had no significant contagion effects in the banking sector either but banks that participated in the ltcm rescue experienced negative stock returns when the rescue was announced this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the effect of continental illinois failure on the financial performance of other banks abstract the fdic bailout of continental illinois creditors is justified on the grounds that continental s collapse posed a threat to the u s banking system this study examines the financial performance of large banking organizations that were vulnerable to bank runs around the time of the continental illinois failure there is little evidence to support concern about bank runs shortly after continental s bailout developments related to latin american loans did affect banks returns

depositor behavior under macroeconomic risk evidence from bank runs in emerging economies depositor behavior has been associated with bank specific characteristics random runs or contagion episodes using evidence on the 2000 02 bank runs in argentina and uruguay this paper shows that macroeconomic risk is also important few macroeconomic shocks can quickly cause large runs macroeconomic risk affects deposits regardless of traditional bank specific characteristics furthermore bank exposure to macroeconomic factors can explain differences in deposit withdrawals during crises the evolution of bank specific characteristics is mainly driven by macroeconomic factors while the informational content of bank specific variables declines overall depositors seem responsive to risk in a broader sense than that often considered by the literature

the brady plan the 1989 mexican debt reduction agreement and bank stock returns in the united states and japan the authors investigate the impact of the menu approach to debt rescheduling on the market value of two major creditors u s and japanese banks they try to understand how major creditor banks are affected by debt reschedulings and the menu choices they make so that debt deals can be structured in a way that appeals to both creditors and debtor countries they measure the stock market s reaction to the announcement of the brady plan and the mexican debt reduction agreement the brady plan was implemented through the menu approach which acknowledges creditor heterogeneity and provides financing packages that meet the country s financing requirements while still allowing the banks to reduce their exposure the mexican agreement provides an opportunity to test the impact of the brady plan s implementation by examining individual bank s menu choices exposure levels and the market s reaction they explore whether banks were able to make optimal portfolio choices when confronted with the obligation to participate they show that stock prices for different groups of banks reacted quite differently to focal events among all banks u s multinationals showed the strongest positive reaction to the brady announcement and the mexican agreement u s non multinationals do not appear to have been significantly affected by these international debt related events the reaction experienced by all japanese banks was much weaker than that of u s multinationals and was negative for the brady announcement and the initial mexico announcement the authors contend that the lack of a strong reaction was because of the japanese banks relatively low exposure to developing country risk they see the negative market reaction as a reflection of the expectation that a u s initiated debt reduction strategy would not be favorable for japanese banks indeed after the menu choices were announced the market recognized that the japanese banks were treated fairly and corrected itself they do not find that banks that made different choices were treated differently by the market so banks were able to negotiate menu choices in their best interest and to make portfolio choices consistent with their business objectives the results here confirm that the menu approach to debt restructuring may benefit both the creditor banks and the debtor countries

financial system design and liquidity provision by banks and markets in a dynamic economy this paper contributes to the literature on financial system design by comparing markets and banks in a dynamic economy investors trade off their liquidity needs against the high returns on illiquid investments both the banking system and the market can provide partial liquidity insurance to investors we consider full market participation as well as limited market participation we demonstrate that the full participation market with intergenerational trading can provide more liquidity than one without insurance is provided through wealth transfer across generations instead of cross subsidization across contemporaneous types as is the case in the finite economy given a full participation market that allows trading across generations only banks with initial capital can provide additional liquidity in a limited participation market with uncertainty about trading types an intergenerational bank with or without initial capital provides additional insurance to investors the need for trade is eliminated finally if there is no uncertainty about trading types then an intergenerational bank with initial capital eliminates the need for trading and improves welfare for all an intergenerational bank without initial capital improves welfare for people who do not trade

heterogeneous creditors and the market value of bank ldc loan portfolios abstract a standard proposition used in many empirical studies is that the value of an ldc loan does not depend on the identity of the lender i test this proposition using bank securities prices and prices for ldc loans trading in the secondary market i find significant cross sectional differences in the sensitivity of bank stocks to changes in the price of ldc loans differences in sensitivity appear to be related to changes in bank exposure to ldcs i also find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that cds are implicitly insured

the reaction of bank stock prices to news of derivatives losses by corporate clients abstract from march through may of 1994 several large nonfinancial firms announced millions of dollars in losses from derivatives deals especially those arranged by bankers trust accompanying these announcements and related news stories were allegations that bankers trust had either misrepresented lied or deceived its clients using sur methods we investigate how these announcements affected bankers trust and three portfolios of banks dealers nondealers and nonusers our results indicate significant cumulative abnormal returns of 12 14 bankers trust 5 56 13 dealer banks and 2 45 32 nondealer user banks the evidence suggests an intra industry information transfer effect consistent with rational pricing the replacement cost of derivative contracts is an important factor in explaining the variation in abnormal returns across banks

the state courts and maternity policies in u s organizations specifying institutional mechanisms we analyze the dynamic interaction of state institutions and organizational policies through an analysis of leave benefits in u s organizations following the pregnancy leave act of 1978 and the family and medical leave act of 1993 organizations have been required by law to allow workers to take time off from work for childbearing and childrearing yet organizations vary on whether they offer full time employees benefits that actually facilitate leave for family responsibilities we analyze the determinants of the organizational decision to offer paid maternity leave to full time employees we compare these findings to the determinants of the organizational decision to offer paid sick leave to full time employees our analysis suggests that organizations have taken an activist approach to their institutional environments in the face of federal definitions of the law that mandated gender neutral policies in the workplace and linked pregnancy to disability those organizations that most often deal with maternity issues e g those located in female dominated industries have institutionalized sick leave policies often instead ofmaternity leave to accommodate pregnant employees the analysis examines specific aspects of the institutional environment at the state and federal levels to illuminate these trends

monetary policy in a data rich environment abstract most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the federal reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information despite the fact that the fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series this article explores the feasibility of incorporating richer information sets into the analysis both positive and normative of fed policymaking we employ a factor model approach developed by stock j h watson m w diffusion indices journal of business economic statistics 2002 20 2 147 forecasting inflation 1999 journal of monetary economics 44 2 293 that permits the systematic information in large data sets to be summarized by relatively few estimated factors with this framework we reconfirm stock and watson s result that the use of large data sets can improve forecast accuracy and we show that this result does not seem to depend on the use of finally revised as opposed to real time data we estimate policy reaction functions for the fed that take into account its data rich environment and provide a test of the hypothesis that fed actions are explained solely by its forecasts of inflation and real activity finally we explore the possibility of developing an expert system that could aggregate diverse information and provide benchmark policy settings

a dynamic nelson siegel model with forward looking macroeconomic factors for the yield curve in the us abstract this paper employs a factor augmented dynamic nelson siegel fadns model to predict the yield curve in the us that relies on a large data set of mostly forward looking macroeconomic variables fadns models significantly improve interest rate forecasts relative to many extant models in the literature for longer horizons it outperforms autoregressive alternatives with reductions in mean absolute forecast error of up to 18 using quarterly data and of up to 40 at higher frequencies for shorter horizons it is still competitive against autoregressive forecasts outclassing them for 7 and 10 year yields the out of sample analysis reveals that the forward looking nature of the indicators we employ is crucial for improving forecasting performance including them indeed reduces the mean absolute error with respect to specifications based on backward looking macroeconomic indicators for any model we consider

the brazilian default announcement and the contagion effect hypothesis abstract in this paper we use stocl market data to test several hypotheses regarding possible investor reaction to the february 20 1987 brazilian default both the traditional event study approach and a generalized least squares regression using brazilian exposure as an explanatory variable for abnormal returns are used a sample of 46 bank holding companies all listed on the new york or american srock exchanges is divided into groups of no low and high brazilian exposure we find that the initial stock market reaction to the default represents a rational investor response to new bank specific information however the stock market reaction also reveals that not all relevant information was contained in the disclosure announcement further we find some evidence of a contagion effect related to size

financial intermediation in an overlapping generations model with transaction costs abstract we analyze an overlapping generations economy where agents interact to share liquidity risk we show that a pure exchange economy has excessive trade in equilibrium because agents interact to rebalance their portfolios intergenerational financial intermediaries reduce the number of interactions because agents only transact when they face liquidity needs in the absence of asset risk intermediaries match redemptions with deposits and dividends and never sell assets if the economy is subject to transaction costs the intermediated economy can sustain higher stationary investment and welfare we also find that dead weight transaction costs can increase welfare because it protects banks from interbank arbitrage and dampens the inherent cyclicality of market economies

who bears interest rate risk we study the allocation of interest rate risk within the european banking sector using novel data banks exposure to interest rate risk is small on aggregate but heterogeneous in the cross section contrary to conventional wisdom net worth is increasing in interest rates for approximately half of the institutions in our sample cross sectional variation in banks exposures is driven by cross country differences in loan rate fixation conventions for mortgages banks use derivatives to partially hedge on balance sheet exposures residual exposures imply that changes in interest rates have redistributive effects within the banking sector received october 31 2017 editorial decision august 30 2018 by editor philip strahan authors have furnished an internet appendix which is available on the oxford university press web site next to the link to the final published paper online

the yield curve and the macro economy across time and frequencies this paper assesses the relation between the yield curve and the main macroeconomic variables in the u s between early 1960s and 2009 across time and frequencies using wavelet analyses the shape of the yield curve is modelled by latent factors corresponding to its level slope and curvature estimated by maximum likelihood with the kalman filter the macroeconomic variables measure economic activity unemployment inflation and the fed funds rate the cross wavelet tools employed coherency and phase difference the set of variables and the length of the sample allow for a thorough appraisal of the timevariation and structural breaks in the direction intensity synchronization and periodicity of the relation between the yield curve and the macro economy our evidence establishes a number of new stylized facts on the yield curve macro relation and sheds light on several results found in the literature which could not have been achieved with analyses conducted strictly in the time domain as most of the literature or purely in the frequency domain

structural change tests in tail behaviour and the asian crisis this paper explores tests of the hypothesis that the tail thickness of a distribution is constant over time using hill s conditional maximum likelihood estimator for the tail index of a distribution tests of tail shape constancy are constructed that allow for an unknown breakpoint the recursive test is shown to be inconsistent in one direction and only a one sided test is recommended specifically the test can be used when the alternative hypothesis is that the tail index decreases over time a rolling and sequential version of the test is consistent in both directions the methods are illustrated on recent stock price data for thailand malaysia and indonesia the period covers the recent asian financial crisis and enables us to assess whether breakpoints in domestic asset return distributions are related to known changes in institutional arrangements in the foreign currency markets of these countries

does the japanese stock market price bank risk evidence from financial firm failures the ability of the japanese stock market to appropriately price the riskiness of japanese financial firms has been frequently questioned particularly in light of japan s widespread financial distress in recent years and poor disclosure requirements this paper examines the response in equity returns of japanese banks to the failure of four commercial banks and two securities firms between 1995 and 1998 using event study methodology the analysis finds that share prices of surviving banks on the whole responded unfavorably to the failures and that financially weaker survivors were more adversely affected this suggests that despite the distress and alleged opaqueness bank shareholders were able to use available indicators of financial condition both to incorporate new information quickly into stock prices and to differentiate among banks

the economic effects of client losses on otc bank derivative dealers evidence from the capital market this paper investigates the economic impact of client derivatives losses on otc derivatives dealers its focus is on the capital marketers reaction to losses suffered by four end users of otc derivatives products arranged with bankers trust new york evidence is provided on the impact of these end user losses on bankers trust itself as well as whether these losses produced any systemic or contagion effects extending to other major bank otc derivatives dealers finally the paper investigates whether possible systemic effects may be associated with bank specific characteristics such as the level of derivatives exposure counterparty risk and reliance on trading income copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

liquidity shortages and banking crises we show in this article that bank failures can be contagious unlike earlier work where contagion stems from depositor panics or contractual links between banks we argue that bank failures can shrink the common pool of liquidity creating or exacerbating aggregate liquidity shortages this could lead to a contagion of failures and a total meltdown of the system given the costs of a meltdown there is a possible role for government intervention unfortunately liquidity and solvency problems interact and can cause each other making it hard to determine the cause of a crisis we propose a robust sequence of intervention banks are often found at the center of systemic financial crises the causes of these crises have long been debated do they stem from depositor panics or do they arise because bank balance sheets are exposed to common factors if it is the latter then is there any sense in which bank failures can be contagious can anything be done to prevent these crises or stop them from propagating once they begin our purpose in this paper is to reexamine whether bank failures can start and propagate systemic crises even if we assume that depositors do not panic that is even if depositors actions are coordinated and they do not run simply because they fear others will run our focus is not because we think that panics are empirically unimportant the jury is still out on that instead we show that contagion can stem from an underlying real general equilibrium problem rather than just from lack of coordination among depositors from a policy perspective attempts to reassure investors through confidence building measures will not work if panic and lack of coordination are not the reasons for a crisis we begin in this paper with a model of a bank that we developed in diamond and rajan 2001 assets in this model are illiquid they cannot be borrowed against or sold for the full value of resources they will generate in their best use because the human capital necessary to generate that full value cannot

contagion and bank failures during the great depression the june 1932 chicago banking panic the authors examine the social costs of asymmetric information induced bank panics in an environment without government deposit insurance their case study is the chicago bank panic of june 1932 the authors compare the ex ante characteristics of panic failures and panic survivors despite temporary confusion about bank asset quality on the part of depositors during the panic which was associated with widespread depositor runs and bank stock price declines the panic did not produce significant social costs in terms of failures among solvent banks copyright 1997 by american economic association

macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes this article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors the predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis an approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts the method is used to construct 6 12 and 24 monthahead forecasts for eight monthly u s macroeconomic time series using 215 predictors in simulated real time from 1970 through 1998 during this sample period these new forecasts outperformed univariate autoregressions small vector autoregressions and leading indicator models

debt equity swaps regulation k and bank stock returns abstract since the early 1980s the financial health of several highly levered ldcs has become increasingly precarious their financial problems in turn imply potentially serious financial problems for their creditors foremost among whom are some of the largest banks in the american financial system in order to relieve some of the pressure on the lending firms the board of governors has recently amended regulation k which provides guidelines for international banking operations to allow for unrestricted investment in foreign nationalized firms through the mechanism of the debt equity swap this paper examines the capital market reaction to the regulatory change and we find that 1 investors on average viewed the change as a wealth increasing event 2 the magnitude of the market reaction was significant and positively related to the level of foreign lending exposure and 3 among ldc lenders the capital market reaction differed significantly between money center and non money center banks

liquidity creation through banks and markets multiple insurance and limited market access abstract the paper studies the intertemporal allocation of funds through demand deposits and anonymous markets first separately and then in an integrated model it reviews some work on the role of market frictions and asset characteristics and suggests that the interplay between these two is crucial in explaining the observed coexistence of demand deposits and anonymous markets

run proof banking without suspension or deposit insurance abstract in a model of banking with asymmetric information among depositors and multiple sources of aggregate risk i show that a demand deposit arrangement with state contingent deposit payments and a priority of claims provision on final date resources is almost best under this arrangement intermediaries infer the realization of aggregate risk and of a privately observed signal on the outcome of the risky technology from depositors withdrawal choices and panics as well as information based runs are averted neither suspension provisions nor deposit insurance are necessary for an efficient run proof banking system furthermore intermediation provides information production services that a credit market does not necessarily provide

asset market linkages in crisis periods we characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure contrary to correlation analysis this nonparametric measure is not predisposed toward the normal distribution and can allow for nonlinear relationships our estimates for the g 5 countries suggest that simultaneous crashes between stock markets are much more likely than between bond markets however for the assessment of financial system stability the widely disregarded cross asset perspective is particularly important for example our data show that stock bond contagion is approximately as frequent as flight to quality from stocks into bonds extreme cross border linkages are surprisingly similar to national linkages illustrating a potential downside to international financial integration

banking deregulation in europe banking deregulation ernst baltensperger and jean dermine deregulation of financial services is well under way in many european countries this has led to fears that economies are now more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks the authors focus on one aspect of financial deregulation namely liberalization of the banking system they show that measures such as the abolition of reserve requirements increase macroeconomic variability under some circumstances but reduce it under others no general macroeconomic case can be made for banking regulation or for its liberalization analysis of microeconomic issues is more fruitful asymmetric information and the risks of contagion in a panic can lead to runs against the banking system to the extent that these are socially inefficient public intervention may be justified this presumption is stronger since the risks of bank runs have grown recently with the increased maturity mismatch the finance of illiquid loans by liquid short term deposits to meet this danger the authors recommend regulation of deposit contracts whilst preserving incentives for bank monitoring by private parties specifically they propose an ex post liability of current and former depositors when banks default thereby offsetting the incentive to withdraw funds at the onset of a crisis being quick off the mark would no longer be sufficient and sophisticated depositors would press for greater disclosure and fuller monitoring of bank activities the authors also recommend that remaining controls on deposit interest rates should be scrapped and that supervision of international banking should be cooperatively conducted by host and parent authorities