the greenhouse effect damages costs and abatement the buildup of so called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere co2 in particular appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate this paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects their potential costs to society and likely costs of abatement for a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess in economic terms the full range of possible non linear synergistic effects in the most favorable although not necessarily likely case of slow paced climate change however it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range at least in the industrialized countries of the world in the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible we tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate induced damages at 30 to 35 per ton of co2 equivalent worldwide with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea level rise the non quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded the costs and benefits of 1 reducing cfc use and 2 reducing fossil fuel consumption as a means of abatement are considered in some detail this strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers the indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from 20 to 60 per ton of co2 eliminated in addition there is good evidence that modest e g 25 reductions in co2 emissions may be achievable by the u s and by implication for other countries by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits savings to energy consumers of the order of 50 per ton of co2 saved a higher level of overall emissions reduction possibly approaching 50 could probably be achieved at little or not net cost by taking advantage of these savings we suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction or a carbon tax as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and co2 emissions to minimize the economic burden and create a political constituency in support of the approach we suggest the substitution of resource based taxes in general for other types of taxes on labor income real estate or trade that are now the main sources of government revenue while it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy making in fact we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria

a uk carbon energy tax a carbon energy tax has been proposed by the european commission to start as us 3 per barrel oil equivalent in 1993 rising to us 10 in 2000 the effects of this tax on the uk economy can be assessed by using a large scale energy environment economy model in which energy demand is treated by means of aggregate equations for energy users and fuel share equations for electricity and each of the main fossil fuels the electricity supply industry is represented in the model by simulating the characteristics of each existing generating station and of a range of new station types and by allowing the model to choose the fuels used from relative fuel prices and prices of capital inputs this approach contrasts with the multimodel approach used in most studies of the effects of the tax the tax is introduced as a tax on imports and domestic output of fossil fuels in proportion to their carbon and energy content with the tax being passed on through the economic system depending on the use of the fuels thus the electricity industry is faced with higher prices for coal gas and fuel oil and chooses to burn the different fuels according to their relative prices four scenarios are developed which vary according to the way the tax revenues are recycled through reductions in vat or in income tax rates and whether the tax is introduced throughout the european community or throughout the oecd if the tax is european it is assumed that the energy intensive industries will be exempt the outcome is that the tax is sufficient to stabilize co2 emissions over the period 1990 2005 at 12 below base levels by the end of the period there is an overall saving of energy compared to base and a further switch to gas in electricity generation the effects on the macroeconomy are rather small and as the revenues are recycled rather than saved by the government gdp growth is likely to increase under the tax by some 0 2 above base this confirms other studies in which revenues are recycled but contradicts many results from studies in which revenue recycling is ignored or incomplete the effects on the energy intensive industries are expected to be small in all the scenarios but 14 of tax revenues are lost if the industries are exempt

employer matching and 401 k saving evidence from the health and retirement study abstract employer matching of employee 401 k contributions is often touted as a powerful incentive to save for retirement and is a key component in pension plan design in the united states using detailed administrative contribution earnings and pension plan data from the health and retirement study this analysis formulates a life cycle consistent econometric specification of 401 k saving and estimates the determinants of saving accounting for non linearities in the household budget set induced by matching the participation estimates indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per dollar of employee contribution raises 401 k participation by 5 percentage points the parametric and semi parametric estimates for saving indicate that an increase in the match rate by 25 cents per dollar of employee contribution raises 401 k saving by 365 in 1991 dollars overall the analysis reveals that the 401 k saving response to matching is quite inelastic and hence matching is a rather poor policy instrument with which to raise retirement saving

the role of personality traits in pension decisions findings and policy recommendations many countries need to stimulate pension participation and contribution to ensure their citizens are prepared adequately for retirement identifying at risk groups with tendencies of not joining pe

thomas schelling s contributions to game theory thomas schelling brings game theory to life and does so in two senses first instead of the abstract and austere beauty of mathematical theorems that we find in most of game theory going back to von neumann morgenstern and nash he gives us lively and memorable examples to explain and illustrate his ideas schelling s 1960a p 21 pictures of bargaining when two dynamite trucks meet on a road wide enough for one who backs up and of tacit coordination can two people who are told to meet each other in new york city on a specified day but are not told the place or time and are unable to contact each other successfully meet 1960a pp 55 56 are among the best known but my personal favorite is schelling s 1965 pp 66 67 example of the strategy of salami tactics for defeating threats by incremental escalation

measuring welfare from ambulatory surgery centers a spatial analysis of demand for healthcare facilities this paper studies competition between healthcare facilities particularly between hospitals and ambulatory surgery centers asc s in the market for outpatient surgery the goal is to answer questions about the existence and magnitude of welfare gains earned from the use of asc s these questions are relevant to current policy debates about the usefulness of asc s i calculate welfare by specifying a multinomial logit model of consumer demand for healthcare facilities and estimating structural elements of demand functions total elimination of asc s results in between 10 2 and 28 1 minutes of welfare loss per patient surgery

do tax incentives for saving in pension accounts cause debt accumulation evidence from danish register data abstract this paper applies a quasi experimental research design on a danish 2010 policy that reduced tax incentives for saving in annuity pension schemes to show significant substitution of savings from retirement accounts to gross debt repayments we find that for every 1 danish currency unit reduction in retirement savings 31 cents goes to debt repayments taking into account all types of savings we find full crowding out consistent with previous findings we document that the effect is driven by a minority about 23 percent who actively rebalance their savings

structural estimation of stock market participation costs abstract this paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation where consumers decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs the practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial education programs can affect consumers investment decisions using household data from the panel study of income dynamics i estimate the magnitude of the participation cost allowing for individual heterogeneity in it the results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4 6 of labor income however it varies substantially over consumers life the model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers life cycle

global warming and energy demand list of tables list of figures list of contributors preface 1 global warming and energy elasticities terry barker paul ekins and nick johnstonepart 1 estimating long term energy elasticities 2 alternative approaches to estimating long run energy demand elasticities an application to asian developing countries ron smith and m hashem pesaran 3 a survey of international energy elasticities neil manning and jago atkinson 4 long run demand elasticities for gasoline thomas sterner and mikael franzen 5 responses of energy demand in uk manufacturing to the energy price increases of 1973 and 1979 80 alan ingham 6 elasticities for oecd aggregate final energy demand lakis vouyoukas 7 modelling uk energy demand derek hodgson and keith millerpart ii energy the economy and greenhouse gas abatement 8 endogenous technological progress in fossil fuel demand laurence boone stephen hall david kemball cook and clare smith 9 uk energy price elasticities and their implications for long term co2 abatement terry barker 10 price elasticity and market structure overcoming obstacles to ensure energy efficiency tim jackson 11 rethinking the use of energy elasticities stefan p schleicher 12 revisiting the costs of co2 abatement paul ekins 13 asymmetrical price elasticities of energy demand michael grubb14 conclusions terry barker paul ekins and nick johnstone bibliography index

scientific basis for the greenhouse effect the international community may reach agreement to limit carbon emissions as early as i 992 when brazil will host a negotiating convention on climate change europe and japan have already made commitments to place ceilings on future emissions at or below present rates because the cost of switching to alternative fuels could be high with profound implications for long term economic growth especially in developing countries policy action must be based on the view that the science of the greenhouse effect is compelling this essay considers the scientific logic and evidence for the effect from the viewpoint of an economist it draws heavily on the findings of the intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc i will stress that both the science and the policy discussion so far including by ipcc have focused insufficiently on effects in the very long term on the order of 250 to 300 years

economics coursework and long term behavior and experiences of college graduates in labor markets and personal finance i introduction if economics is a unique way of thinking as many economists like to claim some level of coursework in economics may provide enough specific knowledge and skills to lead students to make different choices in their adult roles as consumers workers and voters citizens of course the same could be claimed for training in business and other areas even though or perhaps because it could be argued that most content and training in business courses is more applied and pragmatic than what is presented in economics courses some empirical evidence though not really a great deal suggests that training in economics and business is associated with different adult behaviors and outcomes for example golec 1996 finds that mutual funds perform better if mutual fund managers have an mba and chevalier and ellison 1999 also report a positive correlation between mutual fund performance and the educational background of mutual fund managers black sanders and taylor 2003 found that economics majors earn almost 20 more than graduates in other social science majors and about 10 more than those who major in business administration in fields with large numbers of graduates they find that only engineering majors earn more than economics majors similarly hecker 1995 reported that males majoring in economics had median earnings 3 higher than all majors for the age cohort of 25 34 and 53 more than average for the cohort aged 35 44 craft and baker 2003 find that lawyers with an undergraduate major in economics earn 13 more than otherwise comparable lawyers with other undergraduate majors and economics is the only major with a statistically significant effect on earnings 1 hamermesh and donald 2008 however find that higher earnings by economics majors are partly due to economics majors working more hours than others the relationship between financial literacy knowledge and adult behavior and outcomes in financial markets has been addressed in several recent studies many sponsored by federal reserve banks hilgert hogarth and beverly 2003 and braunstein and welch 2002 find that knowledge about credit saving and investment is significantly related to recommended financial practices in cash flow management credit management saving and investment unfortunately there is also evidence of widespread financial illiteracy in u s households and particularly among elderly women see lusardi and mitchell 2007 2008 employee education programs have been found to affect workers savings retirement and investment behaviors bayer bernheim and scholz 2009 bernheim and garret 2003 state mandates for precollege education in personal finance appear to succeed in at least exposing students to more information and sources on financial education and students from states with such mandates report higher levels of savings and net worth as adults bernheim garrett and maki 2001 tennyson and nguyen 2001 much less research exists linking college coursework or majoring in economics to personal finance outcomes 2 but christiansen joensen and rangvid 2008 find that those trained in economics in college courses or employee education programs are more likely to invest in stocks than those who receive training in other areas guiso and jappelli 2005 report that among college graduates having a degree in economics is positively associated with knowledge about financial assets chert and volpe 1998 107 concluded that business majors had better knowledge about personal financial literacy than other students but that in general college students were not knowledgeable about personal finance 3 in this paper we use a large and unique data set to investigate the relationships between taking college coursework in economics or majoring in economics with long term labor market and personal finance behaviors and outcomes our information on long term behaviors and outcomes is drawn from a detailed questionnaire we mailed in january 2003 to over 25 000 graduates who attended four public universities in 1976 1986 or 1996

financial literacy and mortgage equity withdrawals abstract mortgage equity withdrawals mew are correlated with covariates consistent with a permanent income framework augmented for credit constraints we assess linkages between mew and financial literacy education using the health and retirement study hrs and panel study of income dynamics psid we find that the financially literate are 3 5 percentage points less likely to withdraw housing equity via non home equity loan mortgages using the hrs while college graduates are 5 percentage points less likely than those without a high school degree in the psid among those withdrawing housing equity in the psid college graduates extract significantly less equity and are less likely to have high levels of housing leverage after doing so

the aggregation of climate change damages a welfare theoretic approach the economic value of environmental goods is commonly determined using the concepts of willingness to pay wtp or willingness to accept wta however the wtp wta observed in different countries or between individuals will differ according to socio economic characteristics in particular income this notion of differentiated values for otherwise identical goods say a given reduction in mortality risk has been criticized as unethical most recently in the context of the social cost chapter of the ipcc second assessment report these critics argue that being a function of income wtp wta estimates reflect the unfairness in the current income distribution and for equity reasons uniform per unit values should therefore be applied across individuals and countries this paper analyses the role of equity in the aggregation of climate change damage estimates using basic tools of welfare economics it shows one way of how wtp wta estimates can be corrected in aggregation if the underlying income distribution is considered unfair it proposes that in the aggregation process individual estimates be weighted with an equity factor derived from the social welfare and utility functions equity weighting can significantly increase aggregate global damage figures although some specifications of weighting functions also imply reduced estimates the paper also shows that while the postulate of uniform per unit values is compatible with a wide range of reasonable utility and welfare specifications there are also cases where the common value notion is not compatible with defensible welfare concepts

policy analysis of the greenhouse effect an application of the page model abstract in this paper we introduce a comprehensive model for policy analysis of the greenhouse effect page we apply the page model to assess the merits of policies to prevent global warming by controlling the emissions of greenhouse gases and policies to adapt to any global warming that occurs the results confirm that it is difficult to overcome the problem of global warming by taking preventive action alone the argument for introducing an aggressive adaptive policy is very strong we calculate the valuation that would have to be placed upon non economic environmental and social impacts for a combined strategy of preventive and adaptive policies to be considered a worthwhile option both for individual regions and for the world as a whole we also show that uncertainties in all four groups of inputs to the model scientific costs of control costs of adaptation and valuation of impacts have a great influence on the costs and impacts of the combined strategy

climate policy without tears cge based ancillary benefits estimates for chile this study examines a hithertoneglected set of benefits from climate policy viz the reduction in emissions of localair pollutants and the associated healthbenefits in this case for residents ofsantiago de chile by using an economy widemodel we are able to compare these monetisedbenefits to the direct costs of carbonabatement thereby determining the scope for no regrets co2 reductions sensitivityanalysis is performed in recognition of theuncertainty surrounding certain key parameterand exogenous variable values notably households willingness to pay wtp forreduced mortality and morbidity risk and thesubstitution elasticities among energy sourcesand between energy and other inputs ourresults suggest that even with the mostconservative assumptions low wtp lowelasticities chile could reduce co2emissions by almost 20 from the 2010 baselinewith no net welfare loss though a 10 reduction is closer to optimal if insteadchile were to target a 20 reduction inparticulate concentrations a particulate taxwould incur slightly lower costs than anequivalent carbon tax to achieve the samehealth benefits while the latter is asecond best method of addressing localpollution the welfare loss of choosing thisinstrument could be fully compensated by carboncredit sales at a world market price of 20 tc

some economics of global warming the greenhouse effect itself is simple enough to understand and is not in any real dispute what is in dispute is its magnitude over the coming century its translation into changes in climates around the globe and the impacts of those climate changes on human welfare and the natural environment these are beyond the professional understanding of any single person the sciences involved are too numerous and diverse demography economics biology and the technology sciences are needed to project emissions atmospheric chemistry oceanography biology and meteorology are needed to translate emissions into climates biology agronomy health sciences economics sociology and glaciology are needed to identify and assess impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems and those are not all there are expert judgments on large pieces of the subject but no single person clothed in this panoply of disciplines has shown up or is likely to this article makes an attempt to forecast the economic and social consequences of global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and attempting to prevent it

rethinking the costs related to global warming a survey of the issues one approach to the economic analysis of global warming seeks to balance the costs of damage from or adaptation to it with the costs of mitigating it the costs of adaptation and damage have been estimated using techniques of environmental evaluation but are subject to a wide margin of uncertainty the costs of mitigation principally by reducing the emissions of co2 have been estimated using different kinds of economic models some of the results of which have suggested that very little abatement of carbon emissions is justified before the costs of abatement exceed the benefits of it in terms of foregone damage and adaptation costs the paper analyses the extent to which this conclusion is a function of the modelling assumptions and techniques used rather than likely practical outcomes with regard to the models treatment of unemployed resources revenue recycling prior distortions in the economy due to the tax system and possible dynamic effects from the introduction of a carbon energy tax it concludes that with different and arguably more appropriate treatment of the above issues especially when the secondary benefits of reducing co2 emissions are also taken into account it is not clear that even substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels will incur net costs especially if there is the prospect of even moderate costs from global warming

a study on economic measures for co2 reduction in japan in this paper we investigate the costs and effectiveness of two co2 emission control policies a co2 tax and a subsidy for co2 reduction criepi s medium term economic forecasting system is used to analyse the co2 tax policy it is concluded that the national cost of co2 reduction by taxation is prohibitively high for the subsidy we used an integrated approach combining a bottom up model with criepi s model although we have shown the usefulness of the integrated approach for analysing the subsidy policy we need to gather more data to make the results more reliable

competition among hospitals we examine competition in the hospital industry in particular the effect of ownership type for profit not for profit government we estimate a structural model of demand and pricing in the hospital industry in california then use the estimates to simulate the effect of a merger california hospitals in 1995 face an average price elasticity of demand of 4 85 not for profit hospitals face less elastic demand and act as if they have lower marginal costs their prices are lower than those of for profits but markups are higher we simulate the effects of the 1997 merger of two hospital chains in san luis obispo county where the merger creates a near monopoly prices rise by up to 53 and the predicted price increase would not be substantially smaller were the chains not for profit

monetary valuation of the social cost of co2 emissions a critical survey an expanding branch of research has estimated the potential costs of climate change which are often expressed as the social cost of carbon scc or the costs of an additional ton of co2 emissions estimates of the scc can be used by policy makers to evaluate climate change policies and greenhouse gas emission reduction projects by means of cost benefit analyses cbas such analyses are complicated by the wide range of scc values that have been reported in the literature and the large uncertainties involved in estimating the potential economic impacts and related costs of climate change this study presents a critical review of the reported scc estimates by examining some neglected consequences of climate change uncertain and extreme scenarios of climate change the discounting of future climate change effects the treatment of individual risk aversion and assumptions about social welfare in view of the many uncertainties and omissions in conventional cost benefit analyses of climate impacts and the scc alternative approaches to decision making should be considered for climate policy

discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming the economics of global warming is reviewed with special emphasis on how the cost depends on the discount rate and on how costs in poor and rich regions are aggregated into a global cost estimate both of these factors depend on the assumptions made concerning the underlying utility and welfare functions it is common to aggregate welfare gains and losses across generations and countries as if the utility of money were constant but it is not if we assume that a e co2 equivalent dlubling implies costs equal to 1 5 of the income in both high and low income countries a pure rate of time preference equal to zero and a utility function which is logarithmic in income then the marginal cost of co2 emissions is estimated at 260 590 usd ton c for a time horizon in the range 300 1000 years an estimate which is large enough to justify significant reductions of co2 emissions on purely economic grounds the estimate is approximately 50 100 times larger than the estimate made by nordhaus in his dice model and the difference is almost completely due to the choice of discount rate and the weight given to the costs in the developing world as well as a more accurate model of the carbon cycle finally the sensitivity of the marginal cost estimate with respect to several parameters is analyzed

applied welfare economics with discrete choice models economists have been paying increasing attention to the study of situations in which consumers face a discrete rather than a continuous set of choices such models are potentially very important in evaluating the impact of government programs upon consumer welfare but very little has been said in general regarding the tools of applied welfare economics indiscrete choice situations this paper shows how the conventional methods of applied welfare economics can be modified to handle such cases it focuses on the computation of the excess burden of taxation and the evaluation of quality change the results are applied to stochastic utility models including the popular cases of probit and logit analysis throughout the emphasis is on providing rigorous guidelines for carrying out applied work this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

cognitive abilities and portfolio choice we study the relation between cognitive abilities and stockholding using the recent survey of health ageing and retirement in europe share which has detailed data on wealth and portfolio composition of individuals aged 50 in 11 european countries and three indicators of cognitive abilities mathematical verbal fluency and recall skills we find that the propensity to invest in stocks is strongly associated with cognitive abilities for both direct stock market participation and indirect participation through mutual funds and retirement accounts since the decision to invest in less information intensive assets such as bonds is less strongly related to cognitive abilities we conclude that the association between cognitive abilities and stockholding is driven by information constraints rather than by features of preferences or psychological traits

five steps to planning success experimental evidence from us households while financial knowledge has been linked to improved financial behaviour there is lit tle consensus on the value of financial education in part because rigorous evaluation of various programmes has yielded mixed results however given the heterogeneity of financial education pro grammes in the literature focusing on generic financial education can be inappropriate and even mis leading lusardi 2009 and others argue that pedagogy and delivery matter significantly in this paper we design and field a low cost easily replicable financial education programme called five steps covering five basic financial planning concepts that relate to retirement we conduct a field experiment to evaluate the overall impact of five steps on a probability sample of the american population in different treatment arms we quantify the relative impact of delivering the programme through video and narrative formats our results show that short videos and narratives each takes about 3 minutes have sizeable short run effects on objective measures of respondent knowledge moreover keeping informational content relatively constant format has significant effects on other psychological levers of behavioural change effects on self efficacy are significantly higher when videos are used which ultimately influences knowledge acquisition follow up tests of respondents knowledge approximately 8 months after the interventions suggest that between one quarter and one third of the knowledge gain and about one fifth of the self efficacy gain persist thus this simple programme has effects both in the short run and medium run

do 401 k contributions crowd out other personal saving during the late 1980s contributions to 401 k plans eclipsed contributions to individual retirement accounts iras as the leading form of tax deferred individual retirement saving in the united states in this paper we describe patterns of participation in 401 k plans contrast these patterns with ira participation and evaluate the net impact of 401 k contributions on personal saving we find that 401 k participation conditional on eligibility exceeds 60 at all income levels in contrast ira participation at the height of that program rose sharply with income we use two methods to evaluate the net saving effect of 401 k contributions on personal saving we compare the financial assets of families who are eligible for 401 k saving with the assets of those who are not eligible and we consider the change over time in the assets of like groups of savers we find little evidence that 401 k contributions substitute for other forms of personal saving including ira contributions

education and saving the long term effects of high school financial curriculum mandates abstract over the last 40 years a majority of states have adopted consumer education policies and a sizable minority have mandated that high school students receive instruction on topics related to household financial decision making in this paper we attempt to determine whether these mandates have had any effect on subsequent decisions we exploit the variation in requirements both across states and over time to identify the effects of interest the evidence indicates that mandates have raised both exposure to financial curricula and subsequent asset accumulation once exposed students reached adulthood the estimated effects are gradual probably due to implementation lags

planning and financial literacy how do women fare many older us households have done little or no planning for retirement and there is a substantial population that seems to undersave for retirement of particular concern is the relative position of older women who are more vulnerable to old age poverty due to their longer longevity this paper uses data from a special module we devised on planning and financial literacy in the 2004 health and retirement study it shows that women display much lower levels of financial literacy than the older population as a whole in addition women who are less financially literate are also less likely to plan for retirement and be successful planners these findings have important implications for policy and for programs aimed at fostering financial security at older ages

participation in and contributions to 401 k pension plans evidence om plan data k plans differ from traditional employer sponsored pension plans in that employees are permitted to make voluntary pre tax contributions hence the sensitivity of participation and contributions to plan charac teristics notably the employer matching rate may play a critical role in retirement saving using plan level data from form 5500s filed annu ally with the internal revenue service ifind that substantial increases occur when an employer moves from a zero to a small or moderately sized match but that at higher match rates employee contributions fall

who is more rational we report on the results of a large scale field experiment that enables us to test for consistency with utility maximizing behavior and to investigate the correlation between individual behavior and demographic and economic characteristics we conducted the experiment with the centerpanel a representative sample of over 2 000 dutch households using procedures similar to those used by choi et al 2007b in a setting with risk we find a high level of consistency in the individual level decisions there is also considerable heterogeneity in subjects consistency scores high income and high education subjects display greater levels of consistency men are more consistent than women and young subjects are more consistent than those who

financial literacy and its consequences evidence from russia during the financial crisis the ability of consumers to make informed financial decisions improves their ability to develop sound personal finance this paper uses a panel data set from russia an economy in which household debt has grown at an astounding rate to examine the importance of financial literacy and its effects on behavior the paper studies both the financial and real consequences of financial illiteracy even though consumer borrowing increased very rapidly in russia only 41 of respondents demonstrate an understanding of interest compounding and only 46 can answer a simple question about inflation financial literacy is positively related to participation in financial markets and negatively related to the use of informal sources of borrowing moreover individuals with higher financial literacy are significantly less likely to report experiencing a negative income shock during 2009 and have greater availability of unspent income and higher spending capacity the relationship between financial literacy and availability of unspent income is higher in 2009 suggesting that financial literacy may better equip individuals to deal with macroeconomic shocks

the costs of mitigating carbon emissions a review of methods and findings from european studies abstract conventional wisdom has it that top down studies of mitigation costs are too pessimistic while bottom up studies are too optimistic in examining mitigation cost studies for western europe this paper finds this interpretation to be flawed the paper expands the analytical framework for interpreting mitigation cost studies evaluates the treatment of no regrets options and other input assumptions in the various studies and includes findings from recent integrated top down bottom up modeling assessments not covered in the ipcc report based on these new elements it is found that mitigation costs tend to be overestimated not only in top down studies but also in bottom up studies given this pervasive bias toward pessimism the body of existing mitigation cost assessments for western europe can be read as follows over the next three to four decades a combination of tax shifts market transformation instruments and policies to reform subsidies and internalize non climatic externalities could cut carbon emissions in western europe by 40 50 relative to the base year at no loss or at a gain in gdp averaged over the medium term and including a phase in period an economically optimal rate of implementing western europe s no regrets potentials is found to be in the neighborhood of 2 per year relative to base year levels

the effects of financial education in the workplace evidence from a survey of households abstract we use a novel household survey to investigate the effects of employer based financial education on personal saving we explore cross sectional relations between the availability of employer based financial education and various measures of asset accumulation and we interpret these patterns in light of various potentially confounding factors our findings favor the hypothesis that employer based financial education stimulates saving both in general and for retirement

the welfare effects of restricted hospital choice in the us medical care market summary managed care health insurers in the usa restrict their enrollees choice of hospitals to within specific networks this paper considers the implications of these restrictions a three step econometric model is used to predict consumer preferences over health plans conditional on the hospitals they offer the results indicate that consumers place a positive and significant weight on their expected utility from the hospital network when choosing plans a welfare analysis assuming fixed prices implies that restricting consumers choice of hospitals leads to a loss to society of approximately 1 billion per year across the 43 us markets considered this figure may be outweighed by the price reductions generated by the restriction copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

the economic importance of financial literacy theory and evidence this paper undertakes an assessment of a rapidly growing body of economic research on financial literacy we start with an overview of theoretical research which casts financial knowledge as a form of investment in human capital endogenizing financial knowledge has important implications for welfare as well as policies intended to enhance levels of financial knowledge in the larger population next we draw on recent surveys to establish how much or how little people know and identify the least financially savvy population subgroups this is followed by an examination of the impact of financial literacy on economic decision making in the united states and elsewhere while the literature is still young conclusions may be drawn about the effects and consequences of financial illiteracy and what works to remedy these gaps a final section offers thoughts on what remains to be learned if researchers are to better inform theoretical and empirical models as well as public policy jel a20 d14 g11 i20 j26

employee financial literacy and retirement plan behavior a case study this article uses administrative data on all active employees of the federal reserve fr system to examine participation in and contributions to the thrift saving plan the system s defined contribution dc plan we link to administrative records a unique employee survey of economic demographic factors including a set of financial literacy questions not surprisingly fr employees are substantially more financially literate than the population at large most importantly financially savvy employees are also most likely to participate in their dc plan sophisticated workers contribute three percentage points more of their earnings to the dc plan than do the less knowledgeable and they hold more equity in their pension accounts we examine changes in employee plan behavior 1 year after employees completed a learning module about retirement planning and we compare it to baseline patterns we find that those employees who completed the learning module were more likely to start contributing and less likely to have stopped contributing to the dc plan postsurvey in sum employer provided learning programs are shown to significantly impact employee retirement saving decisions and consistent with a lot of other research higher levels of financial literacy are found to have a beneficial impact on retirement saving patterns jel j3 h7

valuing new goods in a model with complementarity online newspapers many important economic questions hinge on the extent to which new goods either crowd out or complement consumption of existing products recent methods for studying new goods rule out complementarity by assumption so their applicability to these questions has been limited i develop a new model that relaxes this restriction and use it to study competition between print and online newspapers using new micro data from washington dc i estimate the relationship between the print and online papers in demand the welfare impact of the online paper s introduction and the expected impact of charging positive online prices

does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings we establish that season of birth is related to educational attainment because of school start age policy and compulsory school attendance laws individuals born in the beginning of the year start school at an older age and can therefore drop out after completing less schooling than individuals born near the end of the year roughly 25 percent of potential dropouts remain in school because of compulsory schooling laws we estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings by using quarter of birth as an instrument for education the instrumental variables estimate of the return to education is close to the ordinary least squares estimate suggesting that there is little bias in conventional estimates every developed country in the world has a compulsory schooling requirement yet little is known about the effect these laws have on educational attainment and earnings 1 this paper exploits an unusual natural experiment to estimate the impact of compulsory schooling laws in the united states the experiment stems from the fact that children born in different months of the year start school at different ages while compulsory schooling laws generally require students to remain in school until their sixteenth or seventeenth birthday in effect the interaction of school entry requirements and compulsory schooling laws compel students born

the role of financial literacy in determining retirement plans nber working paper seriesthe role of financial literacy in determining retirement plansrobert clarkmelinda sandler morrillsteven g allenworking paper 16612http www nber org papers w16612national bureau of economic research1050 massachusetts avenuecambridge ma 02138december 2010this research is funded in part by a grant from finra investor education foundation we wouldlike to thank jennifer maki mehtab randhawa and evan rogers for their research assistance theresearch could not have been accomplished without the cooperation of the companies that partneredwith us we would also like to thank nicholas horsewood annamaria lusardi olivia mitchell andtwo anonymous referees for useful comments all remaining errors are our own the views expressedherein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the national bureau of economicresearch finra investor education foundation or any of its affiliated companies 2010 by robert clark melinda sandler morrill and steven g allen all rights reserved shortsections of text not to exceed two paragraphs may be quoted without explicit permission providedthat full credit including notice is given to the source

global environmental risks the need to manage climate risks is not a new it has shaped social institutions for many centuries in medieval england a peasant farmer s land was broken into many widely dispersed parcels economic historians interpret this as a way of hedging climate risk see references in bromley 9 land in different locations would be affected differently by droughts floods and frosts by spreading land holdings over different locations as well as by organizing agricultural cooperatives and buying insurance farmers have managed climate risk for many centuries

financial literacy and financial behaviour experimental evidence from rural rwanda we organise a field experiment with smallholder farmers in rwanda to measure the impact of financial literacy training on financial knowledge and behaviour the training increased financial literacy of participants changed their savings and borrowing behaviour and had a positive effect on the new business start up however it failed to have a significant short term impact on income using a two stage regression framework we identify enhanced financial literacy as one of the important factors explaining behavioural changes we also test whether financial knowledge spillovers from trained farmers to their peers in local village banks but find no evidence for that

can simple informational nudges increase employee participation in a 401 k plan we report results from a field experiment in which a randomized subset of newly hired workers at a large financial institution received a flyer containing information about the employer s 401 k plan and the value of contributions compounding over a career younger workers who received the flyer were significantly more likely to begin contributing to the plan relative to their peers in the control group many workers do not participate in their employers supplemental retirement savings programs even though these programs offer substantial tax advantages and immediate returns due to matching contributions from a survey of new hires we find that many workers choose not to contribute to the plan because they have other financial priorities however some nonparticipants lack the financial literacy to appreciate the benefit these findings indicate that simple informational interventions can nudge workers to participate in retirement saving plans and enhance individual well being and retirement income security

assessing competition in hospital care markets the importance of accounting for quality differentiation quality differentiation is especially important in the hospital industry where the choices of medicare patients are unaffected by prices unlike previous studies that use geographic market concentration to estimate hospital competitiveness this article emphasizes the importance of quality differentiation in this spatially differentiated market i estimate a random coefficients discrete choice model that predicts patient flow to different hospitals and find that demand responses to both distance and quality are substantial the estimates suggest that patients do not substitute toward alternative hospitals in proportion to current market shares implying that geographic market concentration is an inappropriate measure of hospital competitiveness

to own or not to own your life insurance policy abstract life insurance proceeds are generally subject to the estate tax an exception is when the policy is owned by the beneficiaries and the insured gives up ownership and control including the ability to change beneficiaries should the insured strategically own the policy contract and potentially subject proceeds to estate and inheritance taxes or relinquish control with the beneficiaries owning the policy and escape such transfer taxes this paper addresses how the estate tax influences the choice of life insurance ownership using samples of estate tax returns the empirical evidence suggests that those facing high estate tax rates are more likely to forgo ownership and have proceeds excluded from their estates and provides further evidence on the incentive effect of taxes and in support of the strategic bequest motive

social interactions in asset allocation decisions evidence from 401 k pension plan investors abstract this paper investigates social interaction effects on individual asset allocation decisions using a rich dataset of 159 329 individuals enrolled in 401 k plans we find that individuals are likely to increase decrease their risk shares when their coworkers have higher lower risk exposures over the last quarter the social interaction effects are especially strong among individuals with extreme asset allocations and low equity investment performance we also divide the workplaces into subgroups to examine how social interaction effects vary among coworkers with different backgrounds results from additional tests indicate that estimated social interaction effects are not primarily driven by common preferences common environments or reverse causality

effectiveness of employer provided financial information hiring to retiring in order to maximize lifetime utility workers must make choices throughout their careers to plan and save for retirement with the aging of the baby boomers and increasing life expectancies it is more important than ever for individuals to ensure they have adequate savings and resources for retirement to make optimal choices individuals need sufficient knowledge of how both national and employer provided retirement plans work and what benefits they should expect further they must have adequate financial literacy to navigate complex financial instruments and to understand the importance of various plan characteristics traditional models of life cycle earnings and consumption are based on the assumption that workers are aware of investment options understand the benefits they will receive from various retirement plans and have the ability to assess the impact of their saving decisions

the impact of financial literacy training for migrants remittances are a major source of external financing for many developing countries but the cost of sending them remains high in many migration corridors despite efforts to lower these costs by offering new products and developing cost comparison information sources many new and promising inexpensive remittance methods have relatively low adoption rates the lack of financial literacy among migrants has been identified as one potentially important barrier to competition and new product adoption this paper presents the results of a randomized experiment designed to measure the impact of providing financial literacy training to migrants training appears to increase financial knowledge and information seeking behavior and reduces the risk of switching to costlier remittance products but it does not result in significant changes in the frequency of remitting or in the remitted amount

hospital competition in hmo networks abstract we develop a framework for analyzing bargaining relationships between hospitals and hmos under selective contracting using a unique dataset on hospitals in the los angeles area from 1990 to 1993 we estimate the determinants of actual negotiated prices paid to hospitals by two major hmos we find that a hospital s bargaining power and thus its price decrease when the hmo can readily turn to alternative networks that exclude the hospital we simulate the effect of hypothetical hospital mergers on bargaining power and find that some hospital mergers even in urban areas with many nearby hospitals can lead to significant price increases

nature or nurture what determines investor behavior abstract using data on identical and fraternal twins complete financial portfolios we decompose the cross sectional variation in investor behavior we find that a genetic factor explains about one third of the variance in stock market participation and asset allocation family environment has an effect on the behavior of young individuals but this effect is not long lasting and disappears as an individual gains experience frequent contact among twins results in similar investment behavior beyond a genetic factor twins who grew up in different environments still display similar investment behavior our interpretation of a genetic component of the decision to invest in the stock market is that there are innate differences in factors affecting effective stock market participation costs we attribute the genetic component of asset allocation the relative amount invested in equities and the portfolio volatility to genetic variation in risk preferences

discounting cognition and financial awareness new evidence from a change in the military retirement system the choice given military personnel between an immediate cash payment of 30 000 or a more generous retirement pension permits us to estimate individuals personal discount rates pdrs the resulting pdrs about 7 for enlisted personnel and 2 4 3 for officers are precise and are correlated with a variety of other financial behaviors the pdr is negatively related to educational attainment and the armed forces qualification test but cognition seems to operate through channels other than being better informed better informed individuals were not always measured to be more patient jel d91 d14

what you don t know can t help you pension knowledge and retirement decision making abstract this paper provides an answer to an important empirical puzzle in the retirement literature while most people know little about their own pension plans retirement behavior is strongly affected by pension incentives we combine administrative and self reported pension data to measure the retirement response to actual and perceived financial incentives and document an important role for self reported pension data in determining retirement behavior well informed individuals are far more responsive to pension incentives than the average individual ill informed individuals seem to respond systematically to their own misperceptions of pension incentives

financial literacy financial education and downstream financial behaviors policy makers have embraced financial education as a necessary antidote to the increasing complexity of consumers financial decisions over the last generation we conduct a meta analysis of the relationship of financial literacy and of financial education to financial behaviors in 168 papers covering 201 prior studies we find that interventions to improve financial literacy explain only 0 1 of the variance in financial behaviors studied with weaker effects in low income samples like other education financial education decays over time even large interventions with many hours of instruction have negligible effects on behavior 20 months or more from the time of intervention correlational studies that measure financial literacy find stronger associations with financial behaviors we conduct three empirical studies and we find that the partial effects of financial literacy diminish dramatically when one controls for psychological traits that have been omitted in prior research or when one uses an instrument for financial literacy to control for omitted variables financial education as studied to date has serious limitations that have been masked by the apparently larger effects in correlational studies we envisage a reduced role for financial education that is not elaborated or acted upon soon afterward we suggest a real but narrower role for just in time financial education tied to specific behaviors it intends to help we conclude with a discussion of the characteristics of behaviors that might affect the policy maker s mix of financial education choice architecture and regulation as tools to help consumer financial behavior this paper was accepted by uri gneezy behavioral economics

the capital energy complementarity debate revisited this paper argues that the empirical disagreement as to whether capital and energy are complements or substitutes is not likely to be reconciled with aggregate data it demonstrates that price induced changes in the composition of output can cause either outcome in the aggregate even if no technical substitution is possible substitution by consumers and changes in the relative incomes of consumers and foreigners are identified as key factors in determining which outcome arises

financial education and behavioral finance new insights into the role of information in financial decisions recent empirical evidence based on surveys and experimental activities within the fields of behavioral finance and financial education has offered economists new empirically based insights into how individuals use information in making financial decisions specifically the importance of information in financial decisions may be reduced or eliminated by psychological aspects of the individual such as a state of overconfidence that is individual or shared with a group or by the individual s limited ability to process complex and abundant information this paper aims to complement this emerging body of literature by studying how individuals perceive and process information when making financial decisions we review these contributions and suggest a number of broad guidelines that can provide a framework for future discussion of this topic within financial decision theory

on the value of life in rich and poor countries and distributional weights beyond utilitarianism this paper discusses the use ofdistributional weights in cba based on a generalbergson samuelson swf in particular it illustratessome consequences of applying a swf characterized byconstant inequality aversion which includes classicalutilitarianism as a special case together with aconstant relative risk aversion utility function whencalculating the damage costs of global warming itextends and clarifies earlier unintuitive results andemphasizes that utility must be seen as fully cardinalin terms of levels in this context in the specialcase of utilitarianism on the other hand it issufficient to be able to make interpersonalcomparisons of utility changes

recreation demand models with taste differences over people we estimate random parameter logit models of anglers choice of fishing site the models generalize logit by allowing coefficients to vary randomly over anglers rather than being fixed the models do not exhibit the restrictive independence from irrelevant alternatives property of logit and can represent any substitution pattern estimation explicitly accounts for the fact that the variation in coefficients over anglers induces correlation in unobserved utility over trips by the same angler willingness to pay for improved fish stock and the value to anglers of specific sites are calculated from the models and compared with the estimates obtained from a standard logit model

the damage costs of climate change toward more comprehensive calculations it is argued that estimating the damage costs of a certain benchmark climate change is not sufficient what is needed are cost functions and confidence intervals although these are contained in the integrated models and their technical manuals this paper brings them into the open in order to stimulate discussion after briefly reviewing the benchmark climate change damage costs region specific cost functions are presented which distinguish tangible from intangible losses and the losses due to a changing climate from those due to a changed climate furthermore cost functions are assumed to be quadratic as an approximation of the unknown but presumably convex functions results from the damage module of the integrated climate economy model fund are presented next uncertainties are incorporated and expected damages are calculated it is shown that because of convex loss functions and right skewed uncertain ties the risk premium is substantial calling for more action than analysis based on best guess estimates the final section explores some needs for further scientific research

stock market aversion political preferences and stock market participation abstract we find that left wing voters and politicians are less likely to invest in stocks controlling for income wealth education and other relevant factors this finding from unique data sets in finland is robust both at the zip code and at the individual level a moderate left voter is 17 20 less likely to own stocks than a moderate right voter the results are consistent with the idea that personal values are a factor in important investment decisions in this case leading to stock market aversion the results are inconsistent with alternative explanations such as wealth effects risk aversion reverse causality return expectations or social capital

the effects of financial education in the workplace evidence from a survey of employers we examine the effects of education on financial decision making skills by identifying an interesting source of variation in pertinent training during the 1990s an increasing number of individuals were exposed to programs of financial education provided by their employers if as some have argued low saving frequently results from a failure to appreciate economic vulnerabilities then education of this form could prove to have a powerful effect on behavior the current paper undertakes an analysis of these programs using a previously unexploited survey of employers we find that both participation in and contributions to voluntary savings plans are significantly higher when employers offer retirement seminars the effect is typically much stronger for non highly compensated employees than for highly compensated employees the frequency of seminars emerges as a particularly important correlate of behavior we are unable to detect any effects of written materials such as newsletters and summary plan descriptions regardless of frequency we also present evidence on other determinants of plan activity