variations on the theme of conning in mathematical economics abstract the mathematization of economics is almost exclusively in terms of the mathematics of real analysis which in turn is founded on set theory and the axiom of choice and orthodox mathematical logic in this paper i try to point out that this kind of mathematization is replete with economic infelicities the attempt to extract these infelicities is in terms of three main examples and one general discussion dynamics policy and rational expectations and learning are the examples a game theory without subjectivism based on the axiom of determinateness is discussed in general terms the focus is on the role and reliance of standard fixed point theorems in orthodox mathematical economics

non transitive choice event splitting effects or framing effects recent studies have examined possible causes of the robust empirical failure of the transitivity axiom of expected utility theory by pitting regret aversion against alternative explanations such as event splitting effects these tests show that cycles replicate when the latter are controlled but are sensitive to changes in problem representation the control for event splitting effects however does not rule out their contribution to cyclical choices in some circumstances an experiment is reported which investigates this possibility cyclical choices are observed that cannot be due to event splitting effects but appear attributable to within event and between act evaluations of decision problems plus framing effects

are preferences monotonic testing some predictions of regret theory in this paper the authors demonstrate that the assumption of regret aversion which has been invoked in regret theory to explain several well documented violations of expected utility theory also implies the existence of strict preferences between some stochastically equivalent actions and implies certain systematic violations of monotonicity the authors report an experimental test of these predictions they find that while choices between stochastically equivalent actions are entirely consistent with expected utility theory there is clear evidence of the monotonicity violations predicted by regret theory copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

scale economies and input price elasticities in microfinance institutions abstract we evaluate the efficiency of microfinance institutions mfis using a structural approach which also captures these institutions outreach and sustainability objectives we estimate economies of scale and input price elasticities for lending only and deposit mobilizing mfis using a large sample of high quality panel data the results confirm conjectures that improvements in efficiency can come from the growth or consolidations of mfis as we find substantial increasing returns to scale for all but profitability focused deposit mobilizing mfis our results support the existence of a trade off between outreach and sustainability all inputs are inelastic substitutes but we find differences in own price elasticities in lending only and deposit mobilizing mfis

emotional bidders an analytical and experimental examination of consumers behavior in a priceline like reverse auction e commerce has proved to be fertile ground for new business models which may be patented for up to 20 years and have potentially far reaching impact on the e commerce landscape one such electronic market is the reverse auction model popularized by priceline com there is still uncertainty surrounding the survival of such new electronic markets currently available on the internet understanding user behavior is necessary for better assessment of these sites survival this paper adds to economic analysis a formal representation of the emotions evoked by the auction process specifically the excitement of winning if a bid is accepted and the frustration of losing if it is not we generate and empirically test a number of insights related to 1 the impact of expected excitement at winning and frustration at losing on bids across consumers and biddings scenarios and 2 the dynamic nature of the bidding behavior that is how winning and losing in previous bids influence their future bidding behavior

pension plan characteristics and framing effects in employee savings behavior abstract defined contribution pensions in many postsecondary institutions are funded by a combination of an employer premium and a mandatory employee premium individuals can also contribute to a supplemental savings account holding constant total compensation standard reasoning suggests that supplemental savings should depend negatively on the sum of the employer and employee pension contributions contrarily we find that the supplementary savings of professors are significantly more sensitive to employee contributions than to employer contributions this asymmetry is consistent with different marginal propensities to save out of the salary and pension components of compensation nevertheless impacts on lifetime utility are relatively modest

microfinance and poverty in bolivia both in its institutional range and in its penetration of financial markets the microfinance sector in bolivia rivals any in the world and has played a major part in extracting the macro economy from meltdown since the mid 1980s we seek specifically to assess its impact on poverty and do this through small sample surveys on four microfinance institutions two urban and two rural using a range of poverty concepts income generated both through the borrower s enterprise and through the labour market asset holdings and diversity and various measures of vulnerability all the institutions studied had on balance positive impacts on income and asset levels with income impacts correlating negatively with income on account of poor households choosing to invest in low risk low return assets microfinance may however augment vulnerability average debt service ratios of microfinance clients are disturbingly high and if the coping mechanisms used by borrowers fail borrowers may be forced out of the

testing the rate of preference reversal in personal and social decision making classic preference reversal where choice and valuation procedures generate inconsistent preference orderings has rarely been tested in hypothetical health care treatment scenarios two studies the first non incentivised and the second incentivised are reported in this article in both studies respondents are asked to make decisions that affect themselves a personal decision making frame and those for whom they are responsible a social decision making frame the results show non negligible and systematic rates of preference reversal in both frames although these rates are slightly but non significantly lower in the incentivised condition moreover in both studies the rate of predicted preference reversal was somewhat higher in the social than in the personal decision making frame a finding that is explained by greater risk aversion when choosing treatment options for others than when choosing treatments for oneself

experimental economics hard science or wasteful tinkering i take it that in raising the question what have we learned from experimental economics under the broader umbrella of controversy the point is not to solicit a catalogue of experimental findings but rather to signal the more pointed question are we learning anything at all or at least much that is very useful form experimentation in economics as a practising experimentalist i am convinced that experiments do have the potential to make a significant contribution to knowledge in economics this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

when is efficiency separable from distribution in the provision of club goods abstract using the homogeneous of degree zero inverse congestion quality function employed most frequently in the literature we characterise completely the families of utility functions which are then necessary and sufficient for break even utilitarian welfare maximising provision of club goods with self selection to be separable from distribution two types of separation involving alternatively a the price and quality b the price quality facility size and total utilisation are considered when separation is possible utility functions and optimal decisions take simple intuitive forms our results extend the scope of separation results previously obtained only for pure public goods journal of economic literature classification numbers d62 h23 h40

giving women credit the strengths and limitations of credit as a tool for alleviating poverty abstract poor women in developing countries often turn to self employment as a way to support themselves and their families but these small scale activities rarely yield enough income to lift them out of poverty recently ngos and donor agencies have sought to assist these women by providing credit which is otherwise largely unavailable to them the broad aims of these programs vary as do the strategies which range from simply offering credit a minimalist approach to providing training and technical assistance as part of the credit package a credit plus approach the channels used bank schemes intermediary programs parallel programs or poverty focused development banks also vary so far the last three channels have been more effective than the first in improving women s access to credit however not enough is known about which strategies have the greatest economic impact for particular groups of women and further evaluation is needed

financial performance and outreach a global analysis of leading microbanks microfinance contracts have proven able to secure high rates of loan repayment in the face of limited liability and information asymmetries but high repayment rates have not translated easily into profits for most microbanks profitability though is at the heart of the promise that microfinance can deliver poverty reduction while not relying on ongoing subsidy the authors examine why this promise remains unmet for most institutions using a data set with unusually high quality financial information on 124 institutions in 49 countries they explore the patterns of profitability loan repayment and cost reduction the authors find that institutional design and orientation matter substantially lenders that do not use group based methods to overcome incentive problems experience weaker portfolio quality and lower profit rates when interest rates are raised substantially for these individual based lenders one key to achieving profitability is investing more heavily in staff costs a finding consistent with the economics of information but contrary to the conventional wisdom that profitability is largely a function of minimizing cost

regret theory a bold alternative to the alternatives in their famous 1982 paper in this journal loomes and sugden introduced regret theory now more than 30 years later the case for the historical importance of this contribution can be made

observing violations of transitivity by experimental methods the preference reversal phenomenon is usually interpreted as evidence of nontransitivity of preference but has also been explained as the result of the difference between individuals responses to choice and valuation problems the devices used by experimenters to elicit valuations and the random lottery selection incentive system this paper reports an experiment designed so that none of these factors could generate systematic nontransitivities yet systematic violations of transitivity were still found the pattern of violation was analogous with that found in previous preference reversal experiments and is consistent with regret theory copyright 1991 by the econometric society

testing new theories of choice under uncertainty using the common consequence effect a generalised common consequence problem is used to contrast the predictions of expected utility theory and several new theories of choice under uncertainty an experiment designed to test these predictions is reported systematic violations of expected utility theory are detected but although a consistent pattern emerges from the data it offers little support for any of the new theories the analysis is extended to test predictions which are unique to regret theory and significant regret effects are detected

procrastination of enjoyable experiences abstract the tendency to procrastinate applies not only to aversive tasks but also to positive experiences with immediate benefits the authors propose that models of time discounting can explain this behavior and they test these predictions with field data and experiments a multicity study shows that people with unlimited time windows delay visiting desirable landmarks however procrastination is reduced when the window of opportunity is constrained similarly people procrastinate in redeeming gift certificates and gift cards with long deadlines more than those with short deadlines resulting in overall lower redemption rates these results run counter to participants predictions and typical models of impulsive behavior

formalism logic and reality a keynesian analysis in the view of many perhaps most economists to state a theory in terms of a formal model is an unambiguous improvement rather than as we see it a matter of costs and benefits the benefits greater rigour more precision demonstrable results are widely understood while the costs are underexplored the costs are associated with the way in which formalising an argument can change its meaning i e with its non neutrality this paper will focus on the particular costs of formalism associated with the obstacles formal ism poses for translating from formalist theory to practical application

developments in non expected utility theory the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk this article reviews recent developments in the economic theory of individual decision making under risk since the 1950s it has been known that individual choices violate the standard model of expected utility in predictable ways considerable research effort has now been devoted to the project of developing a superior descriptive model following an overview of non expected utility theories which distinguishes between conventional and non conventional approaches the paper seeks to assess these alternative models in terms of empirical success using laboratory and field data and theoretical usefulness the closing sections reflect on some new directions emerging in this literature

preference reversal information processing effect or rational non transitive choice preference reversal is often explained as an information processing effect whereby individuals respond differently to valuation problems than to straight choices regret theory offers the alternative explanation that individuals act on consistent but nontransitive preferences regret theory in its most general form is shown to make specific predictions about nontransitive pairwise choices that correspond with the preferences reversal phenomenon some experiments designed to discriminate between these two explanations are reported the main finding is that as regret theory predicts the preference reversal phenomenon can be reproduced in situations in which subjects confront only choice problems copyright 1989 by royal economic society

do microfinance institutions benefit from integrating financial and nonfinancial services this article examines the impact of microfinance plus i e coordinated combination of financial and nonfinancial services on the performance of microfinance institutions mfis using a global data set of mfis in 77 countries we find that the provision of nonfinancial services does not harm nor improve mfis financial sustainability and efficiency the results however suggest that the provision of social services is associated with improved loan quality and greater depth of outreach

women and repayment in microfinance a global analysis notice this is the author s version of a work that was accepted for publication in world development changes resulting from the publishing process such as peer review editing corrections structural formatting and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication a definitive version was subsequently published in world development 39 5 758 772 http dx doi org 10 1016 j worlddev 2010 10 008

economic history and economic theory the staples approach to economic development the ideas and institutions within which the current global crisis is being addressed reflect the power structures of the past and are under pressure to evolve but main stream economics tenaciously retains its long standing power over academe and policy while denying a theoretical role for power here we consider the contribution of economic history to theorising in particular we present a case study in the form of an economic history approach which emphasises the role of the state in relation to markets the staples approach of harold innis we apply this approach to the modern financial sector

preference reversals the impact of truth revealing monetary incentives researchers vigorously debate the impact of incentives in preference reversal experiments do incentives alter behavior and generate economically consistent choices lichtenstein and slovic 1971 document inconsistencies reversals in revealed preference in gamble pairs across paired choice and individual pricing tasks the observed pattern is inconsistent with stable underlying preferences expressed with simple errors lichtenstein and slovic 1973 and grether and plott 1979 introduce incentives but aggregate reversal rates change little these results fostered numerous replications and assertions that models of non stable preferences are required to explain reversals contrary to this research we find that incentives can generate more economically consistent behavior our reevaluation of existing experimental data shows that incentives have a clear impact by better aligning aggregate choices and prices the effect is sufficiently large that with truth revealing incentives a stable preferences with error model not only explains behavior but fits the data as well as any model possibly could

reconsiderations in the foundations of decision under uncertainty an explosion has occurred during the past decade in the foundations of decision making under risk and uncertainty the long dormant challenges of allais i 953a b to the von neumann morgenstern i944 independence axioms of allais and of ellsberg 1 96 i to savage s i 954 sure thing principle and of may 1954 and tversky i969 to the transitivity of preferences have sprung to new life through widespread empirical corroboration in the wake of the new evidence an array of representations of preferences has been proposed to accommodate failures of one or more of the traditional axioms 2 although some new models are solely descriptive kahneman and tversky 1979 others have normative interest as competitors of the von neumannmorgenstern expected utility theory quiggin i982 machina i982 chew i982 i983 fishburn i982 or of savage s subjective probability expected utility theory bell i982 loomes and sugden i982 i987 schmeidler i984 gilboa i985 luce and narens i985 fishburn i984 b i986b one benefit of recent foundational work is a deeper understanding of the content and implications of expected utility coupled with a new appreciation of the underlying issues that divided decision theorists a generation ago i am thinking especially of the 1952 paris colloquium on decision under uncertainty allais 1979 pp 446 7 at which allais confronted defenders of expected utility de finetti friedman marschak samuelson savage with his insistence on riskless measurement of the utility of wealth and violations of independence axioms the colloquium appears to have ended in a standoff but enabled each side to sharpen its own position

axiomatization and formalism in economics in this paper we address a number of issues in the historiography and methodology of the formalization of economics in the twentieth century we argue that debreu s approach to formalism pursuing his bourbakist programme was based on hilbert s version of finitism the latter project attempted to retain its place in cantor s paradise and in so doing bequeathed serious methodological consequences there was however at the turn of the twentieth century an alternative version of finitism available that provided by poincare which if adopted by economics would have led to a radically different approach to economic theorizing and modelling we argue that these reflections must be embedded in an alternative larger methodological framework copyright 2007 the authors journal compilation 2007 blackwell publishing ltd