has job stability decreased population data from a small open economy we use a population based employer employee dataset to analyze changes in job stability in norway we first present descriptive analyses of tenure and separation rates followed by regression adjusted measures controlling for changes in demographics and the business cycle we see only weak evidence of changes in the tenure rates in particular for the public sector we find a slight increase in short tenures and a decrease in tenures above eight years however we do not find that this tendency towards less stable jobs leads to an increase in the flow to unemployment or out of the labor force

the effects of taxation price control and government contracts in oligopoly and monopolistic competition abstract many government contracts with or policies towards oligopolistic sectors essentially involve private firms selling a given proportion or quantity of output to the government at a fixed price p r with the remainder being sold on the open market often this is combined with consumer rationing examples include cement and sugar in india and health housing and defence in many countries the paper investigates the effects of these schemes including sales and excise taxation on prices output and household welfare under oligopoly and monopolistic competition less government control reduced may raise prices and tax shifting can be above or below 100 percent

job mobility and earnings instability there is still no consensus on the causes of the increase in the variance of transitory earnings earnings instability in the united states it is difficult to attribute the rise in instability to job mobility because there is no evidence of a concurrent increase in job turnover or separations using an error component model of the covariance structure of earnings on panel survey of income dynamics and survey of income and program participation data this study shows that job mobility and the increase in the variance of wage changes upon job change accounts for a substantial part of the increase in earnings instability the empirical evidence is consistent with the simulations of a search and matching model where an increase in the variance of productivity shocks increases on the job search and earnings instability among job changers while leaving job turnover approximately constant jel j21 j31

do cigarette producers price discriminate by state an empirical analysis of local cigarette pricing and taxation abstract this study analyzes the interactive effects of oligopoly pricing state taxation and anti smoking regulations on retail cigarette prices by state using panel data for the 50 us states between 1960 and 1990 the results indicate that cigarette producers do price discriminate by state though the effect is not large relative to the final retail price there are two further results 1 state taxes are more than passed on a 1 cent state tax increase results in a price increase of 1 11 cents and 2 sellers offset state and local anti smoking laws with lower prices thereby blunting effects of the regulations

detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics the paper evaluates the performance of several recently proposed tests for structural breaks in the conditional variance dynamics of asset returns the tests apply to the class of arch and sv type processes as well as data driven volatility estimators using high frequency data in addition to testing for the presence of breaks the statistics identify the number and location of multiple breaks we study the size and power of the new tests for detecting breaks in the conditional variance under various realistic univariate heteroscedastic models change point hypotheses and sampling schemes the paper concludes with an empirical analysis using data from the stock and fx markets for which we find multiple breaks associated with the asian and russian financial crises these events resulted in changes in the dynamics of volatility of asset returns in the samples prior and post the breaks copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

long term attachments and long run firm rates of return long term attachments between workers and firms are common numerous studies have examined worker returns to tenure but little is known of firm returns to firm worker matches yet these attachments represent a human capital asset quasi held by the firm which is not captured by traditional accounting measures of firm assets firms with large quasi holdings of human capital will have higher measured return on assets other things equal analysis of data on 250 large manufacturing firms supports the view that firms profit from long term attachments with their workers consequently unmeasured human capital assets contribute to the explanation of persistence in measured long run excess profits across firms

evolution of the infant health production function michael grossman s seminal publication on the demand for health and health production grossman 1972 has spawned a substantial body of research focusing on the production of infant health this article provides a systematic review of the published literature to date on infant health production and how it has evolved over the past 3 4 decades as data have become more available computing has improved and econometric methods have become more sophisticated while empirical research in most fields has expanded in corresponding ways the infant health production research has become an important part of the broader and inherently multidisciplinary literature on intergenerational health the strongest and most robust findings are that policies matter for infant health particularly those affecting access to health care and that prenatal smoking and other chemical exposures substantially compromise infant health promising directions for future research include elucidating relevant pathways reconciling the largely inconsistent estimated effects of nutrition and education and exploring the roles of preconceptional and lifetime health care paternal factors social support housing complementarity and substitutability of inputs factors that modify effects of inputs and evolving medical technologies

estimating dynamic demand for cigarettes using panel data the effects of bootlegging taxation and advertising reconsidered abstracct a dynamic demand for cigarette consumption is estimated using pooled data of 46 states over the period 1963 to 1980 a price elasticity of 0 2 and an insignificant income elasticity is found using pooled estimation techniques the bootlegging effect is modeled explicitly using neighboring price the effect is found to be significant two major policy issues are analyzed in light of these new estimates 1 cigarette taxation is found to be an effective tool for generating revenues even though there may be spillover effects to neighboring states where bootlegging is significant 2 the effects of the fairness doctrine act and the advertising ban on cigarette consumption are re examined we find mild support for the effectiveness of subsidized anti smoking messages in reducing cigarette consumption and no support for the thesis that the ban on advertising helps to increase per capita consumption

non stationarities in financial time series the long range dependence and the igarch effects we give the theoretical basis of a possible explanation for two stylized facts observed in long log return series the long range dependence lrd in volatility and the integrated garch igarch both these effects can be explained theoretically if one assumes that the data are nonstationary

structural breaks and garch models of exchange rate volatility we investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for garch models of exchange rate volatility using both in sample and out of sample tests we find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of seven of eight us dollar exchange rate return series over the 1980 2005 period implying unstable garch processes for these exchange rates and garch 1 1 parameter estimates often vary substantially across the subsamples defined by the structural breaks we also find that it almost always pays to allow for structural breaks when forecasting exchange rate return volatility in real time combining forecasts from different models that accommodate structural breaks in volatility in various ways appears to offer a reliable method for improving volatility forecast accuracy given the uncertainty surrounding the timing and size of the structural breaks copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

the impact of job security on job satisfaction in economic contractions versus expansions job security often measured using the perceived risk of job loss in the near future is a significant determinant of job satisfaction we posit that the impact job security has on job satisfaction is not only a function of how likely it is that a worker loses a job but also how likely it is that a worker could find another the effect this has on worker job satisfaction then is different depending on whether perceived job loss occurs or not when job openings are scarce or when job openings are plentiful we use difference in differences analysis of the 1997 and 2008 waves from the national study of the changing workforce to show that three measures of job security increase private sector worker job satisfaction and reduce worker incentives to quit more when job openings are relatively scarce during contractions than when job openings are relatively plentiful during expansions we find that our results are strongest among less educated workers

it based technical change and job instability we investigate the impact of it diffusion on the stability of employment we document the evolution of different components of job instability over a panel of 348 cities in france from the mid 1970s to the early 2000s the evidence goes against the view that the diffusion of it has spurred job instability yet analysing long term differences in the occupational structure we find that it diffusion has increased the share of high skill occupations at the expense of low skill occupations this is consistent with french firms reliance on their internal labour market to meet the new skill requirements associated with it diffusion

the wage effects of voluntary labor mobility with and without intervening unemployment this study investigates how an unemployment spell between jobs affects a job changer s new wages one hypothesis holds that the search and mobility costs associated with unemployment between jobs are compensated for by increased wage gains resulting from more intensive job search opposing hypotheses are that unemployed job changers are at a disadvantage because they have fewer job contacts than job changers who move directly from one job to another or because they are unable to gain new skills or develop good work habits while unemployed the results of this analysis of 1979 81 data from the national longitudinal survey of young men support the first hypothesis an unemployment spell between jobs is associated with wage gains higher than those obtained when the job change was made with no intervening unemployment

nonstationarities in stock returns the paper outlines a methodology for analyzing daily stock returns that relinquishes the assumption of global stationarity giving up this common working hypothesis reflects our belief that fundamental features of the financial markets are continuously and significantly changing our approach approximates the nonstationary data locally by stationary models the methodology is applied to the s p 500 series of returns covering a period of over seventy years of market activity we find most of the dynamics of this time series to be concentrated in shifts of the unconditional variance the forecasts based on our nonstationary unconditional modeling were found to be superior to those obtained in a stationary long memory framework and to those based on a stationary garch 1 1 data generating process

testing hypotheses about firm behavior in the cigarette industry data on the effects of excise taxes are used to investigate the level of competition in the cigarette industry a lower bound on the numbers equivalent of firms in the context of the conjectural variations model is derived and estimated results point to at least a moderately high level of competition and in particular allow for the rejection of the perfect cartel model this paper relies on comparative statics results and hence circumvents recent criticisms of a study of monopoly behavior in the cigarette industry

the effect of cigarette excise taxes on smoking before during and after pregnancy recent analyses suggest that cigarette excise taxes lower prenatal smoking it is unclear however whether the association between taxes and prenatal smoking represents a decline among women of reproductive age or a particular response by pregnant women we address this question directly with an analysis of quit and relapse behavior during and after pregnancy we find that the price elasticity of prenatal quitting and postpartum relapse is close to one in absolute value we conclude that direct financial incentives to stop smoking during and after pregnancy should be considered

measurement of monopoly behavior an application to the cigarette industry a simple scheme is proposed to measure monopoly pricing behavior the coefficient of the tax rate term in a price equation identifies the ratio of price to marginal cost no direct measurement of costs is required so a major problem for other empirical studies of monopoly is avoided empirical results for cross section time series data support rejection of atomistic competition but also provide evidence against the operation of an effective cartel in the cigarette industry the model represents an alternative interpretation of related results in a recent paper by barzel application of the methodology to other markets is feasible

incentives in organizations n 1975 steven kerr published on the folly of rewarding a while hoping for b the argument was simple you get what you pay for kerr distilled this unifying theme from a disparate set of examples involving politicians soldiers doctors orphanage directors professors and students as well as manufacturing and clerical employees and even human resource managers from these examples kerr pp 77980 concluded that two main causes of distorted incentives are fascination with an objective criterion where individuals seek to establish simple quantifiable standards against which to measure and reward performance and overemphasis on highly visible behaviors when some parts of the task are highly visible while others are not it took agency theory 15 years to express kerr s title not to mention to evaluate or extend his conclusions during this period agency theory was obsessed with the tradeoff between incentives and insurance even though clear eyed observations like kerr s about the design and performance of real incentive contracts suggested that several other issues are at least as important fortunately recent work has brought agency theory not only to kerr s position but beyond in this paper i summarize four new strands in agency theory that help me think about incentives in real organizations as a point of departure i begin with a quick sketch of the classic agency model i then discuss static models of objective performance measurement that sharpen kerr s argument repeated game models of subjective performance assessments incentives for skill development rather than simply for effort and incentive contracts between versus within organizations i con

the excess sensitivity of layoffs and quits to demand excessive layoffs in bad times and excessive quits in good times both stem from the same weakness in practical employment arrangements the specific nature of worker firm relations creates a situat

trade offshoring and the invisible handshake abstract we study the effect of globalization on the volatility of wages and worker welfare in a model in which risk is allocated through long run employment relationships the invisible handshake globalization can take two forms international integration of commodity markets i e free trade and international integration of factor markets i e offshoring in a two country two good two factor model we show that free trade and offshoring have opposite effects on rich country workers free trade hurts rich country workers while reducing the volatility of their wages by contrast offshoring benefits them while raising the volatility of their wages we thus formalize but also sharply circumscribe a common critique of globalization

interrelated quits an empirical analysis of the utility maximizing mobility hypothesis this paper demonstrates how the circumstances of quitting a previous job affect the probability of a later voluntary job change the theoretical section describes a model of expected utility maximizing job search and mobility although the inability to observe utilities associated with specific jobs precludes a direct test of the utility maximizing mobility hypothesis a testable implication is derived in the context of a simple job search model utility maximization implies that workers who rely exclusively on employed search to find a new job are less likely to quit again this theoretical implication is confirmed by the parameter estimates copyright 1988 by mit press

lifetime earnings and the vietnam era draft lottery evidence from social security administrative records errata the randomly assigned risk of induction generated by the draft lottery is used to construct estimates of the effect of veteran status on civilian earnings these estimates are not biased by the fact that certain types of men are more likely than others to service in the military social security administrative records indicate that in the early 1980s long after their service in vietnam had ended the earnings of white veterans were approximately 15 percent less than the earnings of comparable nonveterans copyright 1990 by american economic association

the existence of self enforcing implicit contracts implicit contracts are nontrivial nash equilibria to the post hiring trading game between a worker and the employer these are supported by intrafirm rather than labor market reputations the existence of an implicit contract that supports efficient trade is proved in a simple model

the economic consequences of labor mobility unlike most previous research on the relative changes in earnings of job stayers and job changers this study examines the variance in earnings changes rather than simply average changes men and women rather than only men and the five year period following job change rather than only the first year or two the author finds great variability in earnings changes both within and across race and gender groups notably men gained more from quits and except in the case of low wage workers lost less from layoffs than women also men suffered a much smaller penalty than women for repeated job changes for all groups the percentage difference between earnings before and after leaving a job generally persisted for several years

costly employment contract renegotiation and the labor mobility of young men the distinction of quits and permanent layoffs remains a contentious issue in the labor economics literature basically there appear two contrasting views of such turnover while both interpretations of turnover are derived from job matching models that assume wealth maximizing behavior of workers and firms each involves different assumptions about the feasibility of individual labor contract negotiations following hire on the one hand application of the coase theorem to employment contracts implies that turnover will occur only when the value of the worker s product in some alternative employment exceeds current job productivity since the actual division of the job match rent is assumed costlessly renegotiable only the presence of a truly more productive job assignment would prevent the renegotiation of the current rent sharing contract to the mutual benefit of both worker and firm the likelihood of a job change is thus directly related to the level of total match productivity irregardless of whether the worker in response to some later survey question characterizes the separation as a quit or permanent layoff according to this formulation of worker and firm attachments quits and permanent layoffs are at least in any sense relevant to actual resource allocation indistinguishable an implication of this model is of course that mobility enhances productivity see gary becker elisabeth landes and robert michael 1977 counter to this view stand models of job matching that suggest that the presence of transactions costs in the form of costly contract renegotiations preclude any easy application of the coase theorem to employment contracts most forcefully advocated by masanori hashimoto 1981 these models of job matching imply that quits and permanent layoffs are different the difference results from the fact that with costly contract renegotiation mobility is to a large extent determined by the actual rent sharing agreement formulated at the beginning of employment according to this view then the total value of the match does not exclusively determine job change and thus not all mobility is productivity augmenting this paper offers a model of job matching with costly post hire negotiations in some aspects similar to that of hashimoto but with particular relevance to the population of young workers only beginning their labor force participation while hashimoto s discussion concentrates on longer term firmspecific training decisions the current model focuses on the period immediately following hire when worker productivity is to a large extent governed by endowed capabilities rather than determined by learning on the job the theoretical focus on inexperienced workers as well as the corresponding youthful composition of the empirical sample are motivated to control for unobserved factors such as firm specific human capital stocks as much as possible in further contrast to hashimoto s emphasis the model yields empirical implications concerning the role of wages in the determination of mobility that contrast to the implications of an otherwise similar zero negotiations cost model of job matching derivation of the empirical implications concerning the relationship of wages to quits and layoffs represents the primary contribution of this paper finally empirical results are presented that at least for a sample of very young men over a short period of time department of economics university of houston houston tx 77004 i thank finis welch dan mitchell and the referee for comments on an earlier version of this paper

can higher cigarette taxes improve birth outcomes abstract this study examines whether higher state cigarette taxes can be used to improve birth outcomes data on the outcomes of interest are taken from the 1989 1992 natality detail files generating a sample of roughly 10 5 million births the results suggest that smoking participation among pregnant women declines and average birth weights rise when excise taxes are increased these results can be used to form an instrumental variables estimate of the impact of smoking on birth weight this estimate is remarkably close to numbers from a random assignment clinical trial the smoking participation price elasticity is estimated to be 0 5

displacement induced joblessness previous research examining the nonemployment of displaced workers suffers from methodological flaws which reinforce widely held but substantially incorrect views about the pattern of postseparation joblessness in particular adjustment difficulties have been overstated for nonwhites long tenure workers and those terminated during periods of high unemployment and underestimated for persons in manufacturing industries or white collar occupations

declining job security this article defines and analyzes job security in the context of implicit contracts designed to overcome incentive problems in the employment relationship contracts of this nature generate predictions concerning the relationship between job security parameters such as worker seniority and sectoral economic conditions and the probability of separations to test these predictions i estimate binomial and multinomial models of job separations using panel study of income dynamics psid data for the years 1976 93 the results are consistent with a decline over time in the incentives to maintain existing employment relationships for male workers and for skilled white collar women

opportunistic behavior by firms in implicit pension contracts several studies have established that under the most common form of pension coverage benefits accrue disproportionately near the end of a worker s career such backloading establishes a penalty for early quitting but may also create an incentive for opportunistic firm behavior because benefits generally are a function of highest earnings when nominal earnings are expected to rise an employer can reduce pension liabilities by discharging workers prior to retirement this paper uses the national longitudinal survey of mature men to test whether such actions by employers are systematic we estimate that pension covered workers with mean losses are less likely to be discharged unexpected increases in pension losses due to increases in inflation however raise the risk of discharge we find no evidence that the minimum vesting standards of the employees retirement income security act reduces the likelihood of discharge for older workers who previously were not vested these results are consistent with an implicit pension contract under which employer compliance is enforced by reputation

a theory of quits and layoffs with efficient turnover this paper answers the efficient turnover literature s long silence regarding the quit layoff distinction treating quits as worker initiated separations and layoffs as firm initiated separations i establish that the existence of layoffs is compatible with optimizing workers and firms forming and dissolving employment matches to exploit all the gains from trade the efficient turnover approach is shown to be consistent with many empirical regularities that distinguish quits from layoffs structural implications of the model are tested on data from the psid

working in family firms paid less but more secure evidence from french matched employer employee data the authors study compensation packages in family owned and nonfamily owned firms using french matched employer employee data they first show that family firms pay on average lower wages part of this wage gap is attributable to low wage workers sorting into family firms and high wage workers sorting into nonfamily firms however they also find evidence that company wage policies differ according to ownership status so that the same worker is paid differently under family and nonfamily firm ownership in addition family firms are characterized by lower job insecurity as measured by lower dismissal rates family firms also appear to rely less on dismissals and more on hiring reductions than do nonfamily firms when they downsize the authors show that compensating wage differentials account for a substantial part of the inverse relationship between the family nonfamily gaps in wages and job security

do workplace smoking bans reduce smoking in recent years workplace smoking policies have become increasingly prevalent and restrictive using data from two large scale national surveys we investigate whether these policies reduce smoking our estimates suggest that workplace bans reduce smoking prevalence by 5 percentage points and daily consumption among smokers by 10 percent although workers with better health habits are more likely to work at firms with smoking bans estimates from systems of equations indicate that these results are not subject to an omitted variables bias the rapid increase in bans can explain all of the recent drop in smoking among workers relative to nonworkers

reversions of excess pension assets after takeovers this article evaluates pension asset reversions as a source of takeover gains in our sample of 413 takeovers pension funds were reverted by 15 1 of acquirers in the two years following hostile takeovers compared to 8 4 in the two years following friendly takeovers reversions following takeovers tend to occur in unit benefit plans where the potential for wealth transfer is the greatest these results are consistent with the view that hostile takeovers breach implicit contracts between firms and employees we estimate that the reversions can on average explain approximately 11 of the takeover premium in cases where they actually occur reversions are too small to be the sole or even dominant source of takeover gains

union effects on health insurance provision and coverage in the united states during the past two decades union density has declined in the united states and employer provision of health benefits has changed substantially in extent and form using individual survey data spanning the years 1983 97 combined with employer survey data for 1993 the authors update and extend previous analyses of private sector union effects on employer provided health benefits they find that the union effect on health insurance coverage rates has fallen somewhat but remains large due to an increase over time in the union effect on employee take up of offered insurance and that declining unionization explains 20 35 of the decline in employee health coverage the increasing union take up effect is linked to union effects on employees direct costs for health insurance and the availability of retiree coverage

intrafamily resource allocations a dynamic structural model of birth weight using large american and british survey data this paper provides structural estimates of the production functions for birth weight and fetal growth in addition to maternal smoking we estimate the impact of when a mother stops work which has not been considered in the literature mothers work interruptions of up to 3 months before birth have a positive effect on birth outcomes especially among british children parental behavior appears to respond to child idiosyncratic endowments in a way that suggests that parents have inequity aversion concerns evidence in favor of inequity aversion emerges also from the analysis of breast feeding decisions

interpreting panel data on job tenure tenure responses in the panel study of income dynamics psid and the national longitudinal surveys are often inconsistent with calendar time these inconsistencies pose special problems in the psid because job changes cannot be identified directly so researchers must infer them from error ridden tenure data we use alternative rules for partitioning psid data into jobs and then estimate several wage and mobility models to assess the sensitivity of parameter estimates to the partitioning method we also assess the importance of replacing raw tenure data with imputed measures that are internally consistent

long memory and level shifts in the volatility of stock market return indices there has been interest in the possibility of confusing long memory and structural changes in level and studies showed that when a short memory process is contaminated by level shifts the estimate of the fractional differencing parameter is biased upward and the autocovariances decay slowly we analyze the properties of the autocorrelation function the periodogram and the log periodogram estimate of the memory parameter when the level shift component is a mixture model our results explain many findings reported and uncover new features we confront our theoretical predictions using log squared returns as a proxy for the volatility of some assets returns including daily s p 500 returns over the period 1928 2002 the estimates follow patterns that would obtain if the process was short memory with level shifts instead of fractionally integrated a simple test is also proposed which reinforces this conclusion

a theory of dual labor markets with application to industrial policy discrimination and keynesian unemployment this paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers need to motivate workers in order to elicit effort from their workers employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage this changes fundamentally the character of labor markets the model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena it provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates it also can provide the basis for a theory of occupational segregation and discrimination that will not be eroded by market forces finally the model provides the basis for a theory of involuntary unemployment

skill bias and employment frictions in the u s labor market 1970 1990 this article studies simultaneous changes in four labor market variables the unemployment rates for college and high school graduates the education wage premium and the level of college participation it develops an equilibrium search and matching model of the labor market where education is endogenously determined then the model is used to investigate quantitatively whether the change in the above labor market variables from 1970 to 1990 in the united states can be traced to changes in the environment a skill biased change in technology together with an increase in employment frictions can explain much of the observed variation in these variables

has job stability declined yet new evidence for the 1990 s we update the evidence on changes in job stability through the mid 1990s using recently released current population survey data for 1995 that parallel earlier job tenure supplements in the aggregate job stability declined modestly in the first half of the 1990s moreover the relatively small aggregate changes mask rather sharp declines in stability for workers with more than a few years of tenure nonetheless the data available to this point do not support the conclusion that the downward shift in job stability for more tenured workers and the more modest decline in aggregate job stability reflect long term trends

workers trust funds and the logic of wage profiles this paper defines a concept a worker s trust fund which is useful in analyzing optimal age earnings profiles the trust fund represents what a worker loses if dismissed from a job for shirking in considering whether to work or shirk a worker weighs the potential loss due to forfeiture of the trust fund if caught shirking against the benefits from reduced effort this concept is used to show that the implicit bonding in upward sloping age earnings profiles is not a perfect substitute for an explicit up front performance bond or employment fee it is also shown that the second best optimal earnings profile in the absence of an up front employment fee pays total compensation in excess of market clearing in a variety of stylized cases

estimating the effect of smoking on birth outcomes using a matched panel data approach estimating the casual effect of smoking on birth outcomes is difficult since omitted unobserved variables are likely to be correlated with a mother s decision to smoke while some previous work has dealt with this endogeneity problem by using instrumental variables this paper instead attempts to estimate the smoking effect from panel data i e data on mothers with multiple births panel data sets are constructed with matching algorithms applied to federal natality data the fixed effects regressions which control for individual heterogeneity yield significantly different results from ordinary least squares and previous instrumental variable approaches the potential inconsistency caused by false matches and other violations of the fixed effects strict exogeneity assumption are considered copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

power monotonicity in detecting volatility levels change we show that the cusum and lm tests for structural change in the volatility process enjoy monotonic power the framework is general including many recently proposed non stationary garch type models the result is in contrast to the well known issue of non monotonic power for the cusum based tests for changing mean simulations and an empirical example provide further support

treatment effects with unobserved heterogeneity a set identification approach we propose the sharp identifiable bounds of the potential outcome distributions using panel data we allow for the possibility that statistical randomization of treatment assignments is not achieved until unobserved heterogeneity is properly controlled for we use certain stationarity assumptions to obtain the sharp bounds our approach allows for dynamic treatment decisions where the current treatment decisions may depend on the past treatments or the past observed outcomes as an empirical illustration we study the effect of smoking during pregnancy on infant birthweight we find that for the group of switchers the infant birthweight of a smoking mother is first order stochastically dominated by that of a nonsmoking mother

did american welfare capitalists breach their implicit contracts during the great depression preliminary findings from company level data it has been claimed that american employers experiments in private welfare capitalism collapsed during the great depression giving place to the welfare state and industrial unionism recent studies however reveal considerable differences in experience across firms the author of this study who characterizes private welfare capitalism as a set of human resource management practices constituting an implicit contract equilibrium tests the implications of implicit contract theory using data from fourteen leading manufacturing firms the repudiation of implicit contracts she finds was positively correlated with the severity of the depression s impact experienced by firms and negatively correlated with the effectiveness of internal enforcement mechanisms instituted by firms furthermore she finds that greater breaches of implicit contracts were associated with greater employee support for industrial unions and more explicit employment contracts concluded under the new deal a comparative case study c

contracting productivity growth in this paper we analyze the interactions between growth and the contracting environment in the production sector allowing incompleteness in contracting implies that viable production relationships for firms and workers and therefore the profitability of industries depend on the rates of innovation and growth the speed at which new innovations arrive in turn depends on the profitability of production for the usual reasons examined in the endogenous growth literature we show that these interactions can have important implications which are consistent with observed phenomena in both the micro and macro environment in particular we demonstrate that a technological shock increasing productivity of research can through this interaction lead to a productivity slowdown and a shift in labor market contracts away from firms providing implicit guarantees of lifetime employment and towards shorter term contractor type arrangements we show the consistency of an increase in the proportion of the labor force under short term employment increased relative returns of workers in high productivity sectors and increased income inequality with a productivity slowdown of finite duration

wages and commuting quasi natural experiments evidence from firms that relocate we examine individual level compensating differentials for commuting distance in a quasi natural experiment setting by examining how wages respond to changes in commuting distance induced by firm relocations this set up enables us to test for the relevance of job search frictions within labour market models due to the quasi experimental set up we are able to avoid a range of endogeneity issues we demonstrate that a 1 km increase in commuting distance induces an almost negligible wage increase in the year after the relocation but a more substantial wage increase of about 0 15 three years later 2013 royal economic society

estimating a household production function heterogeneity the demand for health inputs and their effects on birth weight the household production literature emphasizes that technical or biological processes condition input selection by households in their production activities along with prices and income exogenous variations in health to the extent that they are perceived by individuals heterogeneity lead to correlations between inputs and health outcomes that cannot be used to derive causal conclusions therefore estimates of health technology must be obtained from a behavioral model in which health inputs are themselves choices consistent estimates are reported of the effect of endogenous inputs such as medical care smoking and fertility on birth weight and fetal growth in the presence of health heterogeneity

do hostile takeovers reduce extramarginal wage payments hostile takeovers may have significant implications for long term employment contracts if they facilitate the opportunistic expropriation of extramarginal wage payments we test the expropriation hypothesis by studying the relationship between proxies for extramarginal wage payments and subsequent hostile takeover activity this paper improves on existing research by using firm and establishment level data from a salary survey of employers in addition we observe characteristics of wage and employment structures both before and after the occurrence of a hostile takeover and hence can see whether the data are consistent with reductions in extramarginal wage payments following such takeovers results from this ex post experiment provide evidence consistent with the hypothesis that hostile takeovers result in reductions of extramarginal wage payments to more tenured workers mostly through cutbacks in senior positions at firms with relatively steep wage profiles

seniority sectoral decline and employee retention an analysis of layoff unemployment spells we investigate the effect of tenure on employee retention under varying labor market conditions using a competing risks analysis of recall and new job acceptance applied to layoff unemployment spell data from waves 15 and 16 1982 83 of the panel study of income dynamics we find that adverse conditions sectoral employment decline significantly reduce the positive tenure effect on recall probabilities this result is consistent with firm default on delayed payment contracts and does not appear to reflect the effect of technological change on the value of firm specific investments

human capital investment specialization and the wage effects of voluntary labor mobility ahstract analyses of voluntary labor mobility suggest that job search facilitates job change while specific training inhibits mobility further given that specific skills cannot be transferred between jobs and since both search and training are costly it is reasonable for workers to specialize in search or specific training on a given job training or search specialization however implies that estimation methods which treat the incidence of a quit as exogenous underestimate mobility effects on wages the larger wage effects reported here result from simultaneous estimation but also reflect more accurate measurement of wage growth between jobs

oligopoly structure and the incidence of cigarette excise taxes abstract a model of oligopoly price behavior and tax incidence for the u s cigarette industry for the period 1955 1990 is presented a cost function is estimated and shows manufacture to be subject to increasing returns to scale the mean price elasticity of demand is 0 71 the model indicates that competition among manufacturers has been decreasing since 1980 a simulation shows that an increase in the federal excise tax causes a greater increase in price and a greater decrease in consumption than does the same increase in the average of state and local tax rates

pension reversions and worker stockholder wealth transfers this paper examines the relative importance of transfers from workers to shareholders in the firm s decision to terminate their overfunded defined benefit pension plans in contrast to earlier studies i find evidence that firms terminate their pension plans to relieve themselves of implicit promises to workers of future compensation in addition financing and tax considerations influence the reversion decision the results suggest that the 1986 excise tax on asset reversions reduced termination for reversion by 36 percent in 1986

changes in job security and their causes an empirical analysis for france 1982 2002 abstract in this paper we analyze the changes in the risks of involuntary job loss in france between 1982 and 2002 we find that these risks are higher in the 1990s than they were in the 1980s we develop an econometric analysis to separate the effects of institutional changes from the effects of new technologies our estimates show that the rise in job loss rates is significantly more pronounced in industries that have the largest share of r d workers and the largest rate of new technologies users these findings suggest that technological changes contribute to decreasing the incentive to keep workers for long period of time and to increasing job insecurity

pensions bonding and lifetime jobs a well known if underappreciated finding in the mobility literature is that turnover is much lower in jobs covered by pensions than in other jobs this could result from capital losses for job changes created by most benefit formulas the tendency of turnover prone individuals to avoid jobs covered by pensions or higher overall compensation levels in such jobs a switching bivariate probit model of pension coverage and turnover is developed to estimate the effect of each of these factors the results show that capital losses are the main factor responsible for lower turnover in jobs covered by pensions but self selection and compensation levels also play an important role this is the first direct evidence that bonding is important for understanding long term employment relationships

general productivity growth in a theory of quits and layoffs an efficient matching model of quits and layoffs is developed to account for several empirical regularities differences between quits and layoffs over the life and business cycles and across demographic groups are generated by differential rates of general productivity growth the standard approach to quits and layoffs based on wage rigidity is shown to be incapable of accounting for many of the empirical regularities although a formal test rejects a structural prediction of the efficient turnover model the specification does well in predicting both the level of and time series variation in the fraction of separations labeled quits

employment uncertainty and the incidence of job loss in transition economies the case for central europe a shared concern among central european countries is the significant social cost imposed by market oriented reforms although a growing body of literature has addressed the incidence of such reforms on unemployment distribution and duration little is known of the actual transitions of workers from employment to unemployment and specifically the dynamics of transition induced job loss this study examines such transitions in the czech and slovak republics poland and slovenia within econometric models whereby voluntary and involuntary employment separations are jointly determined in this regard employment reductions triggered by demand driven reforms are accommodated at the industry and the occupation level by redundancies as well as voluntary quits in anticipation of redundancy in addition employed workers within the models consider the costs of job loss likelihood of long term unemployment while both shirking and thus risking dismissal and contemplating quitting estimates on personal characteristic variables in the involuntary and voluntary separation equations provide important new information on the incidence of job loss in central european transition economies and specifically how such loss likely varies by gender age marital status and completed education particular attention is devoted to gender differentials