forecasting turning points abstract two state models of the commerce department s leading and coincident indexes appear to be misspecified cyclical peaks in these indexes are more rounded than are cyclical troughs further the variability of changes in the indexes is unusually high near cyclical troughs

the new role for the world bank the world bank was founded to address what we would today call imperfections in international capital markets its founders thought that countries would borrow from the bank temporarily until they grew enough to borrow commercially nac 1946 p 312 black 1952 some critiques and analyses of the bank are based on the assumption that this continues to be its role for example some argue that the growth of private capital flows to the developing world has rendered the bank irrelevant however we will argue that modern analyses should proceed from the premise that the world bank s central goal is and should be to reduce extreme poverty and that addressing failures in global capital markets is now of subsidiary importance the bank s stated goal is reducing poverty the overwhelming majority of bank subsidies from its shareholder countries go to the international development association ida its arm for making grants and highly concessional loans to the lowest income countries the bank s greatest impact comes from its role in the dramatic policy changes many developing countries have undertaken in multiple sectors that most economists would consider likely to reduce poverty either by increasing growth or promoting equity why might donor countries choose to work through an international organization to advance the goal of reducing poverty effective aid often involves

when is foreign aid policy credible aid dependence and conditionality the author studies foreign aid policy within a principal agent framework he shows that one reason for foreign aid s poor overall record may be a moral hazard problem that shapes the aid recipient s incentive to undertake structural reform the model s basic prediction is a two way relationship disbursements of foreign aid are guided in part by the needs of the poor anticipating this recipients have little incentive to improve the welfare of the poor preliminary econometric work shows that the data support this hypothesis in principle conditionality could partly solve this problem but only if the donor can make a binding commitment to increase disbursements in good relative to bad states without such a commitment technology aid disbursements remain guided by the needs of the poor and recipient countries maintain a low effort to reduce poverty contrary to the conventional wisdom found in the aid literature the author shows that the welfare of all parties might be improved by using tied project aid or by delegating part of the aid budget to an international agency with less aversion to poverty

tax structure and growth are some taxes better than others using pooled cross sectional data from 23 oecd countries between1965 and 1990 i find evidence that the tax structure affectseconomic growth specifically the proportion of tax revenueraised by taxing personal income has a negative correlation witheconomic growth this result is robust to a rigorous sensitivityanalysis where i control for other plausible growth determinantsin a systematic manner also there is some empirical evidencethat tax progressivity measured in terms of the long run incomeelasticity of tax revenue is associated with low economicgrowth

foreign direct investment in mexico a cointegration analysis this article addresses the important question of whether foreign direct investment enhances economic growth and labour productivity in mexico both from a theoretical and empirical perspective after briefly reviewing the mexican experience with net fdi inflows during the 1990s the article presents a simple endogenous growth model which explicitly incorporates any positive negative externalities generated by additions to the foreign capital stock using cointegration analysis the article estimates a dynamic labour productivity function for the 1960 95 period that includes the impact of the growth rate in the stocks of both private and foreign capital as opposed to the flows and the economically active population eap rather than the rate of population growth the error correction model ecm estimates suggest that increases in both private ad lagged foreign investment spending as well as the rate of growth in exports have a positive and economically significant effect on the rate of labour pr

does aid availability affect effectiveness in reducing poverty a review article this paper addresses the impact of aid supply on aid effectiveness first we review theoretical literature that deals with the problem of governance in donor recipient relationships and are susceptible of highlighting effects of aggregate aid availability second we provide a conceptual framework that explicitly incorporates a trade off between considerations of needs and governance we examine the impact of aid supply on the manner in which a donor agency allocates the available money between countries differing in terms of both needs and domestic governance the central conclusion is that a donor s utility function that embodies the need governance trade off and the associated optimization mechanism yield a meaningful rule to guide inter country allocation of aid resources

are bilateral and multilateral aid for trade complementary using the first comprehensive estimates of ad valorem tariff equivalent bilateral trade costs spanning the time period 2002 10 we examine whether the aid for trade aft inflows reduce bilateral trade costs facing aid recipients if so we ask whether the trade costs reduction effects of aft from bilateral and multilateral sources are complementary by showing the extent to which the observed trade cost reduction effects of aft from bilateral multilateral sources correlate with the magnitudes of aft disbursements from multilateral bilateral sources we present plausible explanation for the cross country variations in the extent to which aft promotes trade flows our findings have thus important policy implications for shaping future discourses on the coordination of disbursements for enhancing the effectiveness of aft

values cultural practices and economic performance theory and some evidence from kenya summary policies saving rates human capital etc are possible explanations for poor economic performance but while these factors are changeable underdevelopment persists looking for an unchangeable factor we construct a theory for the effect of cultural values such as moral values risk taking and responsibility to others on economic performance and demonstrate it using a model in which responsibility for parents prevents development we construct data of economic performance and values of seven tribes in kenya and use it to support the model thus we suggest a methodology for the quantitative analysis of the effect of values over the economy

the nature of the savings function in developing countries a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature the savings rate marginal or average is regarded as a key performance indicator by development economists and foreign aid practitioners admonish their clients to increase their savings ratio as a primary condition for achieving a satisfactory rate of economic growth however not only have questions been raised regarding the significance of the savings effort as an independent determinant of economic progress but the formulation of policies designed to increase the savings propensity has suffered from a dearth of knowledge regarding the nature of the savings function in developing countries a number of alternative savings hypotheses derived mainly from the literature relating to developed economies have been advanced but the paucity of reliable data has made it difficult to test these hypotheses and obtain results which warrant a reasonable degree of confidence the purpose of this article is a to review the theoretical and empirical literature on the savings function in developing countries b to assess critically the findings with respect to the major hypotheses and c to summarize the state of our knowledge on this important topic we shall begin with a brief review of the nature of the data on savings in developing countries with which economic analysts must work

the deficit growth connection some recent evidence from developing countries during and after the great depression j m keynes argued for government budget deficits as one of the remedial measures to fight economic downturns and to cure unemployment in industrialized countries in developing countries too policymakers have argued that deficit financing would be an effective tool to promote economic growth given the large amount of unemployed and underemployed manpower and other resources that typically exist in these countries such fiscal policy it is maintained would help these countries invest in much needed infrastructure and other economic development projects in contrast it is also conventional wisdom in most developing countries that larger budget deficits have coincided with wasteful government spending large bureaucracies and other counterproductive economic policies in fact international lending and economic aidgiving agencies such as the world bank and the international monetary fund imf have pressured the less developed countries ldcs governments to restructure their economic policies by cutting wasteful spending reducing deficits privatizing and opening up their economies such measures have been demanded almost as a precondition for obtaining external credit or other kinds of external economic assistance

the hard challenge of aid coordination aid coordination is a constant theme of discussion among national and international aid agencies in their search for more effectiveness and efficiency in delivering development assistance this paper seeks to clarify some of the arguments currently made in support of aid coordination and to precise unavoidable trade offs born of the existence of political costs it is anchored in the available literature on aid delivery while focusing on the implementation problems of aid coordination among donor countries in particular it deals with a the issue of consistently and collectively handling possible governance failures in recipient countries and b the impact of heterogeneity of donor countries on the effectiveness of aid coordination

darwin s invisible hand market competition evolution and the firm competition among firms has been suggested to reflect the ruthless logic of darwinian selection a free market is a struggle for survival in which successful firms survive and unsuccessful ones die this view appears to bolster three pillars of neoclassical economics 1 that economic actors are self interested 2 that self interest leads to public goods adam smith s invisible hand and 3 that together these lead to market optimization however this chain of reasoning leads to a paradox we show that the application of darwinian selection to competition among firms as opposed to among individuals invokes group selection which leads to exactly the opposite predictions notably altruism and the suppression of individual self interest we apply an alternative evolutionary model of economic competition multi level selection mls theory which integrates the effects of selection at both individual and group levels this approach reveals that while individuals may generally pursue their own self interest as in the standard evolutionary account humans also have evolved traits that as if led by an invisible hand steer our self interest to align with the good of the firm or wider society as well but it is the hand of darwin not smith

why conditional aid does not work and what can be done about it abstract this paper studies a simple reform that introduces ex post incentives for the donor to reward good policies contrary to existing practices instead of committing aid to each recipient ex ante and making aid conditional on reform the donor centralizes the disbursement decision by committing aid to a group of countries the actual amount disbursed to each individual country would depend on its relative performance this explicit linkage of the allocation and disbursement decisions has two important advantages as compared to present practices first it raises the opportunity cost of disbursing aid ex post thereby giving the donor stronger incentives to reward good policies second competition among recipients allows the donor to make inferences about common shocks which otherwise conceal the recipient s choice of action this enables the donor to give aid more efficiently

a note on cross country growth regressions a large and growing literature searches for the determinants of economic growth employing cross country regression analysis this approach implicitly assumes that countries possess similar structu

evidence of public spending crowding out from a panel of oecd countries the empirical relationship between government spending and private investment is examined using a panel of 14 oecd countries the evidence suggests the existence of a significant crowding in effect of private investment by public investment through the positive impact of infrastructure on private investment productivity moreover government consumption appears to crowd out private investment the implications of these results are of foremost importance when it comes to fiscal consolidation deficit reductions engineered through cuts in public investment could severely impinge on private capital accumulation and growth prospects

the evolution of private property experimental studies have shown that subjects exhibit a systematic endowment effect no acceptable explanation for the existence of this behavior has been offered this paper shows that the endowment effect can be modeled as respect for private property in the absence of legal institutions ensuring third party contract enforcement in this sense natural private property has been observed in many species in the form of recognition of territorial incumbency we develop a model loosely based on the hawk dove bourgeois game maynard smith j parker g a 1976 the logic of asymmetric contests animal behaviour 24 159 175 and the war of attrition maynard smith j price g r 1973 the logic of animal conflict nature 246 15 18 to explain the natural evolution of private property

do recessions permanently change output abstract this paper examines whether negative innovations to gnp are more or less persistent than positive innovations we find that once we allow for the impulse response of gnp to be asymmetric negative innovations to gnp are observed to be much less persistent than positive ones in particular the effect of a recession on the forecast of output is found to be negligible after only eight to twelve quarters while the effect of a positive shock is estimated to be persistent and amplified over time our results may therefore help reconcile two antagonistic views about the nature of business cycle fluctuations

small is beautiful motivational allocation in the non profit sector we build an occupational choice general equilibrium model with for profit firms non profit organizations and endogenous private warm glow donations lack of monitoring on the use of funds implies that an increase of funds of the non profit sector because of a higher incomein the for profit sector a stronger preference for giving or an inflow of foreign aid worsens the motivational composition and performance of the non profit sector we also analyze the conditions under which donors through linking donations to the motivational composition of the non profit sector non profits themselves through peer monitoring or the government using a tax financed public funding of non profits can eliminate the low effectiveness equilibrium we present supporting case study evidence from humanitarian emergencies and developing country ngo sector and humanitarian emergencies

a sequential game of endowment effect and natural property rights abstract this study develops a sequential game between the incumbent and the intruder to examine how endowment effect decides natural property rights of a territory without third party intervention

aid fragmentation and effectiveness what do we really know summary aid fragmentation is widely recognized as being detrimental to development outcomes we reinvestigate the impact of fragmentation in the context of growth bureaucratic policy and education focusing on a number of conceptually different indicators of fragmentation and paying attention to potentially heterogeneous effects across countries sectors and channels of influence our systematic and detailed reexamination of existing empirical studies shows that this differentiation is crucial in some sectors such as primary education donor concentration or limiting donor numbers appear to be detrimental rather than beneficial for development outcomes in other areas we find the expected negative effect but only when we conceptualize fragmentation as a lack of lead donors too limited concentration rather than in terms of donor numbers in all cases sufficient initial administrative capacity in recipient countries prevents the negative and reinforces the positive effects of fragmentation this stresses the importance of questioning the sweeping conclusions drawn by much of the previous literature based on what we currently know generalizing judgments about the effect of aid fragmentation may be misleading

government size decentralization and growth empirical evidence from italian regions abstractthe aim of this study is to empirically assess the relationship among government size decentralization and economic growth in italian ordinary regions the empirical analysis based on a panel dataset on italian regions provides evidence in support of the existence of an inverted u shaped relationship between public expenditure and economic growth that depends on the degree of fiscal decentralization in particular according to our estimates on the specific italian case the optimal degree of decentralization is around 32 while the optimal government size value is approximately 52

learning to like what you have explaining the endowment effect the endowment effect describes the fact that people demand much more to give up an object than they are willing to spend to acquire it the existence of this effect has been documented in numerous experiments we attempt to explain this effect by showing that evolution favors individuals whose preferences embody an endowment effect the reason is that an endowment effect improves one s bargaining position in bilateral trades we show that for a general class of evolutionary processes strictly positive endowment effects will survive in the long run

political conditionality and foreign aid this article argues that a new generation of political conditionalities has emerged during the last decade this requires an expansion of the original definition and research agenda beyond the traditional questions of use and effectiveness however there is also a need to dig deeper into the dynamics surrounding political conditionalities particularly the bargaining processes and outcomes along the aid chain from domestic donor politics donor harmonization fora policy dialog spaces to the political economy of recipient institutional reform and donor coping strategies because they influence the set up use follow up purpose and effectiveness of pcs

government spending and economic growth this study reviewed recent empirical studies providing fresh evidence of the impact of government spending on economic growth it is followed by a new theoretical synthesis and this as well as the other models are in turn subjected to empirical validation the empirical validation is conducted for both developed and less developed economies based on simultaneous equations as well as single equation models with or without adjusting for differences in th total factor productivity growth government size is estimated to have positive impact on economic growth in the short run but not in the intermediate run 25 years in this study

contracting for aid abstract foreign aid is analyzed as a contract where the north gives a transfer to the south in return for poverty reduction regarded as an international public good the issue of conditionality is first discussed in a moral hazard framework and then under asymmetric information about the degree of altruism of the government of the south additional actors like local ngos and multilateral aid institutions are then added to the model the optimal contracts to avoid free riding or collusion are then presented

animal spirits through creative destruction we show how a schumpeterian process of creative destruction can induce rational herd behavior by entrepreneurs across diverse sectors as if fueled by animal spirits consequently a multisector economy in which productivity improvements are made by independent profit seeking entrepreneurs exhibits regular booms slowdowns and downturns as part of the long run growth process our cyclical equilibrium has higher average growth but lower welfare than the corresponding acyclical one we show how a negative relationship can emerge between volatility and growth across cycling economies and assess the extent to which our model matches several features of actual business cycles

government expenditure and economic growth a cross country study this paper examines the relationship between the share of government consumption expenditure in gdp and the rate of growth of real per capita gdp the work of the u n international comparison project has recently made available new estimates for over 100 countries of both per capita gdp and the share of government consumption these new estimates are based on direct price comparisons rather than exchange rate conversions as a result the statistics for different countries are more comparable and cross country studies will be more reliable