short selling and the price discovery process we show that stock prices are more accurate when short sellers are more active first in a large panel of nyse listed stocks intraday informational efficiency of prices improves with greater shorting flow second at monthly and annual horizons more shorting flow accelerates the incorporation of public information into prices third greater shorting flow reduces post earnings announcement drift for negative earnings surprises fourth short sellers change their trading around extreme return events in a way that aids price discovery and reduces divergence from fundamental values these results are robust to various econometric specifications and their magnitude is economically meaningful the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

explaining the border effect the role of exchange rate variability shipping costs and geography this paper exploits a three dimensional panel data set of prices on 27 traded goods over 88 quarters across 96 cities in the us and japan we show that a simple average of good level real exchange rates tracks the nominal exchange rate well suggesting strong evidence of sticky prices focusing on dispersion in prices between city pairs we find that crossing the us japan border is equivalent to adding as much as 43 000 trillion miles to the cross country volatility of relative prices we turn next to economic explanations for this so called border effect and to its dynamics distance unit shipping costs and exchange rate variability collectively explain a substantial portion of the observed international market segmentation relative wage variability on the other hand has little independent impact on segmentation 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

speculative investor behavior and learning as traders learn about the true distribution of some asset s dividends a speculative premium occurs as each trader anticipates the possibility of reselling the asset to another trader before complete learning has occurred small differences in prior beliefs lead to large speculative premiums during the learning process this phenomenon helps explain a paradox concerning the pricing of initial public offerings the result casts light on the significance of the common prior assumption in economic models

marketing s impact on firm value generalizations from a meta analysis abstractthe interest in the value relevance of marketing investments has given rise to numerous studies on the marketing finance interface this study integrates extant research findings and establishes empirical generalizations on marketing s impact on firm value specifically the authors conduct a meta analysis of prior econometric elasticity estimates of the stock market impact of marketing actions and marketing assets analyses based on 488 elasticities drawn from 83 studies reveal a mean elasticity of 04 for advertising expenditure variables and of 54 for marketing asset variables among marketing assets customer related assets show a higher mean elasticity of 72 compared with 33 for brand related assets further analyses show that advertising elasticities are lower in more concentrated industries and that marketing asset elasticities are higher during recession times researchers should also be aware that characteristics of the research design e g the type of firm value metric used the om

endogenous growth and the possibility of eliminating pollution abstract this paper studies the effect on optimal growth of the possibility that at some moment in the future a technology is discovered that eliminates pollution we formalize this possibility as a probability p per unit of time of discovering such a technology we focus on steady state behavior and show that the optimal rate of growth increases with the hope of eliminating pollution for an economy where there is no growth in the steady state of the optimal trajectory when p 0 a positive p may imply positive growth the higher the value of the probability the larger the endogenous rate of growth

taxation and uncertainty while taxes may be certain u s tax policy has certainly not been furthermore intrinsic economic risk makes investment decisions risky therefore a serious examination of the effects of tax policy on dynamic economic behavior should consider both sources of uncertainty this paper presents a simple theoretical and computational model that can analyze both intrinsic risk and uncertain taxation furthermore it will be clear that these techniques will be useful for examining general problems of taxation and risk when studying the impact of past and or proposed tax changes one of two extreme assumptions are usually made either agents are perfectly aware of future tax policy a perfect foresight assumption or they always believe that no change will ever occur a myopic foresight assumption these two assumptions yield substantially different views of recent tax experience as alan auerbach and james hines 1987 demonstrate in a partial equilibrium context both are clearly wrong the myopic specification assumes that individuals believe at each point in time that the current tax law will surely continue forever even after they have been hit repeatedly with tax changes on the other hand it is absurd to think that in say 1977 a significant number of individuals perfectly knew the various tax changes that would occur during the following decade this paper analyzes a dynamic general equilibrium model wherein taxpayers understand the uncertainty in tax policy when making their deci

bank risk taking securitization supervision and low interest rates evidence from the euro area and the u s lending standards using a unique dataset of the euro area and the u s bank lending standards we find that low monetary policy short term interest rates soften standards for household and corporate loans this softening especially for mortgages is amplified by securitization activity weak supervision for bank capital and low monetary policy rates for an extended period conversely low long term interest rates do not soften lending standards finally countries with softer lending standards before the crisis related to negative taylor rule residuals experienced a worse economic performance afterward these results help shed light on the origins of the crisis and have important policy implications the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

do state borders matter for u s intranational trade the role of history and internal migration empirical evidence of the impact of borders on international trade flows using the gravity equation approach abounds this paper examines the empirical relevance of state borders in u s interstate trade for various specifications of the gravity equation we find a large and economically significant subnational border effect for some specifications however two model specifications drastically reduce if not eliminate the border effect i dynamic panel specifications controlling for past levels of trade and ii models conditioning on internal migration les resultats empiriques de l analyse des impacts des frontieres sur les flux de commerce international en utilisant les modeles de gravite sont devenus monnaie courante ce texte examine l impact des frontieres entre etats a l aide de cette technique il s avere que les effets de frontieres infranationales sont grands et significatifs pour certaines specifications du modele cependant deux specifications du modele reduisent dramatiquement s ils n eliminent pas l effet de frontiere i des specifications qui prennent en compte les niveaux anterieurs de commerce et ii des specifications qui dependent de la migration interne

behavioral biases of mutual fund investors we examine the effect of behavioral biases on the mutual fund choices of a large sample of us discount brokerage investors using new measures of attention to news tax awareness and fund level familiarity bias in addition to behavioral and demographic characteristics of earlier studies behaviorally biased investors typically make poor decisions about fund style and expenses trading frequency and timing resulting in poor performance furthermore trend chasing appears related to behavioral biases rather than to rationally inferring managerial skill from past performance factor analysis suggests that biased investors often conform to stereotypes that can be characterized as gambler smart overconfident narrow framer and mature

short sale constraints divergence of opinion and asset values evidence from the laboratory the overvaluation hypothesis miller 1977 predicts that a stocks are overvalued when there are short selling restrictions and that b the overvaluation is increasing in the degree of divergence of opinion we design an experiment that allows us to test these predictions in the laboratory our results support the hypothesis that prices are higher in the presence of short selling constraints the overvaluation does not depend on the degree of divergence of opinion

polluting non renewable resources and growth in an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation we introduce non renewable resources which cause flow pollution problems in this set up the negative external effect of pollution on productivity does not cause any distortions in the economy the market economy will achieve the optimal extraction and growth rates consequently emission taxes are unnecessary and when introduced will have no effect on the economy the more important is the negative pollution externality the larger will be the optimal long run growth rate which may be either positive or negative in the case of a positive human capital externality consumption in the market economy may approach zero in the long run although positive consumption growth is socially optimal growth enhancing policies do not necessarily cause a larger drain in the resource stock

effects of short sale ban on financial liquidity in crisis and non crisis periods a propensity score matching approach abstractwe investigate the impact of banning the short selling shorting ban on liquidity of stocks traded in the hong kong stock exchange hkex on the basis of the 20 revisions of the designated list of shortable stocks from january 2006 to december 2010 in order to avoid endogeneity due to the liquidity adaptive implementation of the ban policy we use the propensity score matching of shortable and unshortable stocks and apply the double and triple difference methods embedded in the fixed effect panel regression for the matched data using two outcome variables for illiquidity the amihud price impact measure and the bid ask spread our results suggests that the shorting ban in this market may have a liquidity supporting effect in terms of the price impact with no regard to market tranquility and in terms of the spread with regard to the 2008 2009 financial crisis

thick and thin borders in the european union how deep internal integration is within countries and how shallow between them the existence of large border effects is one of the main puzzles of international macroeconomics the seminal paper by mccallum found that trade between any two canadian provinces was on average 22 times greater than trade between any canadian province and any united state us although various authors have estimated internal and external border effects for the whole european union and some specific european countries none has done so in the manner that mccallum s seminal paper stymied by lack of data on region to region international trade flows this study uses a novel data set that captures intra and international truck shipments between spanish regions and regions in seven european countries during the period 2004 11 it computes internal and external border effects offering novel results for aggregate flows and the importing countries and estimates several specifications of the gravity equation so as to tackle such issues as the multilateral resistance term heteroskedasticity and zero flows and non linear relation between trade and distance the paper also adds a detailed analysis on the external border effect for each spanish exporting region and each of the seven european countries considered by means of this analysis we shed new light on the relative integration between regions of these seven countries and spanish exporting regions finally we conduct an extrapolation exercise computing the trade potentials that would be expected in a fully integrated europe and estimating how long full integration would take to achieve between each spanish exporting region and each european importing country to this regard two alternative scenarios are considered one using the growth rates of the spanish exports before the crisis 2001 08 and other considering the postcrisis growth rates 2011 13

does improved environmental policy enhance economic growth the environmental impacts on an economy is studied over time using endogenous growth theory externalities from the environment on production are central in the analysis and we examine whether an optimal path realizes more rapid economic growth the paper focuses mainly on developing countries where production is largely influenced by the environmental quality the result of the analysis indicates that the economic growth rate may not depend on the internalization of the environmental externality but rather on the internalization of the human capital externality the level of economic activity however generally seems to depend on the internalization of both externalities

intra national home bias new evidence from the united states commodity flow survey abstract this paper estimates the us intra national home bias in trade using poisson pseudo maximum likelihood methodology to complement and extend wolf s 2000 work we use wolf s data from the 1993 commodity flow survey cfs and add the 1997 2002 2007 and 2012 waves we claim that wolf s home bias magnitude is overestimated due to the log linearization of the gravity equation and the control for distance used in the cross sectional study our results with panel data and latest econometric estimators show that the levels of us states home bias are in between 50 and 60 lower than in wolf s however since 2002 the home bias has experienced substantial growth which suggests that the us market is less commercially integrated in 2012 than in 1993

stock market expectations of dutch households despite its importance for the analysis of life cycle behavior and in particular retirement planning stock ownership by private households is poorly understood among other approaches to investigate this puzzle recent research has started to elicit private households expectations of stock market returns this paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two year period both on households stock market expectations subjective probabilities of gains or losses and on whether they own stocks we document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations expectations are correlated with stock ownership over the two years of our data stock market prices increased and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses

the economic significance of national border effects to address the economic significance of national border effects this paper provides evidence on two fundamental questions 1 do large border effects arise because of high perceived price wedges between foreign and domestic products or because imports and domestic goods are very close substitutes and 2 if price wedges are important do they reflect distortionary barriers to trade or do they arise from nondistortionary factors such as differences in transactions costs or product characteristics i conclude that while border effects may imply barriers welfare costs and a role for policy distortions are probably not as substantial as initial border results suggested jel f1

border effects and the availability of domestic products abroad trade between countries could fall short of trade within a country because 1 the volume of international trade is less than the volume of domestic trade for a given product the intensive margin or 2 some goods that are sold domestically are simply not exported the extensive margin my theoretical model illustrates that either of these two factors could explain a given aggregate border effect i examine the empirical relevance of this distinction by isolating the fraction of total domestic production attributable only to exporters finding that around one half of the border effect may be attributed to each explanation jel classification f1 les effets de frontieres et la disponibilite de produits domestiques a l etranger le commerce entre pays peut etre moindre que le commerce a l interieur d un pays parce que 1 le volume de commerce international est moindre que le volume du commerce interieur pour un produit donne la marge intensive ou 2 certains biens qui sont vendus a l interieur d un pays ne sont tout simplement pas exportes la marge extensive un modele theorique montre que l un et l autre de ces facteurs pourraient expliquer un certain effet de frontiere au niveau agrege on montre l importance empirique de cette distinction en isolant la fraction de la production interieure totale attribuable strictement aux exportateurs et il s avere qu a peu pres la moitie de l effet de frontiere est attribuable a chacune des deux explications

price dispersion and the border effect abstract cross country price differences could reflect regional market segmentation within countries or national segmentation at the border in a search based model of price setting identifying national versus regional segmentation requires data on regional trade flows a calibration to u s and canadian data implies predominantly regional frictions u s producers are three times more likely to sell in their home region than another u s region and canadian producers are seven times more likely to sell in their home region than another canadian region frictions vis a vis foreign regions are only slightly higher models that ignore regional segmentation can misstate the severity of frictions at the border

immigration and trade creation econometric evidence from canada immigrants may expand trade with their country of origin owing to superior knowledge of or preferential access to market opportunities the authors test this proposition using canadian trade data with 136 partners from 1980 to 1992 in an augmented gravity equation they find that a 10 percent increase in immigrants is associated with a 1 percent increase in canadian exports to the immigrant s home country and a 3 percent increase in imports they also find that among the primary categories of immigrants independents have the greater influence on trade immigration via the entrepreneur class appears to have less impact on trade than all other classes except refugees

up close and personal investor sophistication and the disposition effect this paper analyzes the trading records of a major discount brokerage house to investigate the disposition effect the tendency to sell stocks that have appreciated in price winners sooner than stocks that trade below the purchase price losers in contrast to previous research that has demonstrated the disposition effect by aggregating across investors our main objective is to identify differences in the disposition bias across individuals and explain this in terms of underlying investor characteristics building on the findings in experimental economics and social psychology we hypothesize that differences in investor literacy about financial markets and trading frequency are responsible in part for the variation in individual disposition effect using demographic and socioeconomic variables as proxies for investor literacy we find empirical evidence that wealthier individuals and individuals employed in professional occupations exhibit a lower disposition effect consistent with experimental economics trading frequency also tends to reduce the disposition effect we provide guidelines for investment advisors regulators and investment communities to utilize our findings and help investors make better decisions

canadian provinces in world trade engagement and detachment the authors test whether the findings of john mccallum 1995 and john f helliwell 1996 that the canada u s border substantially decreases trade are evident in canada s trade with the rest of the world they also test whether there are differences across provinces and between each province s exports and imports in this border effect the authors find canada s border with the united states is neither larger nor smaller than the border with the rest of the world and that the border s size varies dramatically across provinces provinces exhibit distinct borders for exports and imports suggesting british columbia is an export platform while ontario and quebec are import platforms

growth and distribution interest in the determinants of the rate growth of different economies is as old as our subject itself book iii of adam smith s an inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations was subtitled of the different progress of opulence in different nations but the systematic formal modelling of growth took as its inspiration the proposition of harrod 1939 and domar 1946 that a steady state rate of growth was feasible only in fortuitous circumstances it was based on three main assumptions first the amounts of capital and labour needed to produce a unit of output are given by technological requirements in particular the capital output ratio denoted by u is a technological constant second the fraction of net income in the economy that is saved denoted by s is fixed finally potential output from given inputs of capital and labour grows at an exogenous rate determined by technical progress labour supply the only non produced input also grows at an exogenous rate hence the only feasible long run steady state rate of growth is the rate of technical progress plus the rate of population growth the natural rate of growth denoted by n stochastic shocks to potential output are ignored in this model much of equilibrium growth theory has been devoted to understanding the conditions necessary for individual saving and investment decisions to be compatible with the levels implied by the natural growth rate an equilibrium growth path is one along which planned net saving equals planned net investment denote the current level of output by y and the expected change in output by ak planned saving is equal to the product of the saving ratio and the level of net output sk planned investment is equal to the product of the capital output ratio and the expected change in output ijay the expected growth rate of output is ay y and in equilibrium this is equal to s v from the condition that planned saving equals planned investment when

intra national versus international trade in the european union why do national borders matter the first objective of this paper is to estimate border effects among european union countries in this context the specification of the gravity equation together with the choice of the distance measure are shown to be crucial for assessing the size of the border effect the second objective is to evaluate the determinants of the cross commodity variation in national border effects contrary to previous findings reported in the literature we show that trade barriers do provide an explanation in particular technical barriers to trade together with product specific information costs increase border effects whereas non tariff barriers are not significant our results further suggest that these barriers are not the only cause since the spatial clustering of firms is also found to matter

does short selling amplify price declines or align stocks with their fundamental values critics of short selling argue that short sellers amplify price declines by targeting firms with falling prices in an unwarranted manner contrary to this viewpoint we find that increases in short interest for firms following a price decline are associated with measures of overpricing based on financial statement analysis our results extend to short selling activity following marketwide declines we also find evidence consistent with the profitability of short selling following price declines being driven by valuation based positions overall our findings suggest short sellers primarily undertake valuation based strategies following price declines and have implications for regulators limiting short selling following price declines is likely to impede efficient price discovery this paper was accepted by mary barth accounting

price discovery in euro area sovereign credit markets and the ban on naked cds abstract the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area saw credit spreads on sovereign bonds and credit default swaps cds surge for a number of member states the rise in sovereign yields was accompanied by a significant increase in sovereign cds market activity this pattern raised concerns that destabilising speculation via outright short selling of cds so called naked cds was behind the increase in bond yields in response policy makers introduced a ban on naked cds trading we investigate the effect of the ban on the price discovery process of sovereign credit risk contrasting results for the post ban period with those obtained prior to the ban we use intraday data on sovereign cds and bonds across a number of euro area countries our first main finding is that the cds market dominates the bond market in terms of price discovery that is cds premia in most cases adjust quicker to reflect new information than bond spreads this result holds also when taking into account transaction costs our second main finding is that the ban on short selling did not alter price discovery dynamics or reduce the efficiency of the market finally we find that prior to the ban cds spreads were persistently higher than bond credit spreads even after controlling for transaction costs this points to the presence of market frictions that limit the ability of arbitrage forces to fully close pricing gaps between the two markets however these pricing discrepancies were in many cases largely eliminated following the introduction of the ban

do investors put their money where their mouth is stock market expectations and investing behavior there is a large gap between what finance models predict for individual investor behavior and what can be observed in their actual behavior portfolio theory assumes that investors form expectations about return and risk of securities and select portfolios according to their expectations and risk preferences as a consequence they should hold broadly diversified portfolios and trade very little but instead private investors have been shown to hold underdiversified portfolios to trade frequently to take high idiosyncratic risk and to gamble in the stock market to understand this striking differences the investment process itself needs greater scrutiny how do real investors use their beliefs and preferences in investing decisions we examine this question using a panel survey of self directed online investors at a uk bank the survey asks for return expectations risk expectations and risk tolerance of these investors in three month intervals between 2008 and 2010 we combine the survey data with investors actual trading data and portfolio holdings we find that investor beliefs have little predictive power for immediate trading behavior however portfolio risk levels and changes are systematically related to return and risk expectations in line with financial theory risk taking increases with return expectations and decreases with risk expectations

how endogenous risk preferences and sample selection affect analysis of firm survival the roles of selection and endogeneity in measured risk preferences are illustrated using the correlation between risk attitudes and firm survival selection bias occurs when risk attitudes are elicited only from current entrepreneurs so that the risk attitudes of unsuccessful entrepreneurs are excluded from the analysis risk attitudes measured after agents enter entrepreneurship will endogenously reflect business success data on entrepreneurs from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 and the panel study of income dynamics shows that when risk attitudes are measured subject to selection and endogeneity mixed or even positive correlations between risk acceptance and the probability of firm exit occur however firm exits fall monotonically with willingness to accept risk when risk preference measures are not subject to selection or endogeneity related to business success

why does the option to stock volume ratio predict stock returns we use data on signed option volume to study which components of option volume predict stock returns and resolve the seemingly inconsistent results in the literature we find no evidence that trades related to synthetic short positions in the underlying stocks contain more information than trades related to synthetic long positions purchases of calls that open new positions are the strongest predictor of returns followed by call sales that close out existing purchased call positions overall our results indicate that the role of options in providing embedded leverage is the most important channel why option trading predicts stock returns

skewness short interest and the efficiency of stock prices abstractwe examine the association between return skewness short interest and the efficiency of stock prices since preferences for skewness have been shown to impact asset prices we examine how skewness relates to market efficiency we find that stocks with positive skewness are less efficient which might be explained by investor preferences for positive skewness next we document that short interest reduces both total skewness and idiosyncratic skewness finally while research has shown that short selling can improve the efficiency of markets generally we show that short interest s ability to improve market efficiency is strongest in stocks with the highest skewness

learning from prices and the dispersion in beliefs i study whether investors use an asset s price to update their beliefs about its payos i show that in a dynamic economy the relationship between the dispersion in investor beliefs and returnvolume characteristics can be used to empirically answer this question when investors have rational expectations re and condition on the price i show that belief dispersion is positively related to expected returns return volatility and correlation between volume and absolute returns but negatively related to return autocorrelation when investors do not use the price as in a dierence of opinions do model these relationships are reversed i test these predictions using the crosssection of returns volume and analyst forecast dispersion over dierent horizons the results are consistent with the re model at quarterly and longer horizons but reject both models at the monthly horizon i show that a hybrid model with some do investors and some re investors can match the short horizon evidence the empirical results are consistent with the idea that while some investors do not use the price in the short run they increase their conditioning on the price over time

the border effect in spain this paper analyses the border effect in spain using a unique dataset on intranational trade flows over the period 1995 98 the results indicate that after controlling for market size and distance spanish regions trade around 22 times more with the rest of spain than they do with oecd countries moreover the size of the spanish bias is lower in the case of the spanish regions exports than in the case of imports although the difference is not statistically significant in most cases finally the border effect is not uniform across spanish regions

is local bias a cross border phenomenon evidence from individual investors international asset allocation abstract extant literature consistently documents that investors tilt their domestic equity portfolios towards regionally close stocks local bias we hypothesize that individual investors local bias is not limited to the domestic sphere but instead also determines their international investment decisions our results confirm the presence of a cross border local bias specifically we show i that the stockholdings of individual investors living within regional proximity to a foreign country display a significantly lower foreign investment bias towards investment opportunities in that country and ii that this drop in foreign investment bias levels is disproportionately driven by investments in regionally close neighbor country companies the impact of cross border local bias on investors bilateral foreign equity investments is economically significant and holds even after controlling for previously identified explanations of international asset allocation

immigrant links to the home country empirical implications for u s bilateral trade flows immigrants ties to their home countries can play a key role in fostering bilateral trade linkages immigrant ties include knowledge of home country markets language preferences and business contacts that have the potential to decrease trading transaction costs empirical results for the united states suggest that immigrant links have historically been important in increasing bilateral trade flows with immigrants home countries copyright 1994 by mit press

intra national trade costs assaying regional frictions abstract the effects of intra regional inter regional and international frictions on the trade flows of canada s provinces are disentangled by gravity model techniques unexplained trade barriers utbs are the difference between inter provincial trade barriers inferred from pair fixed effects and from bilateral distance and contiguity the estimates reveal large intra national trade costs and utbs that vary significantly across canada s provinces decomposition of utbs into relative border effects and a systematic residual utb is based on a novel cobb douglas aggregator of intra provincial and pure inter provincial trade costs variation of both components across provinces is big

impact of global economic crisis on firm growth the global economic crisis has had an adverse effect on and may continue to affect the entrepreneurial sector all over the world however even in a recessionary period there will always be some firms growing faster than others it is therefore imperative to understand the variables and processes that make some firms grow faster or more resilient to crisis than others in this paper we focus on firm size and its contributions to growth we examine whether growth rates of manufacturing and service industries are independent of firm size during the period of economic crisis based on a large sample of surviving firms in the manufacturing and hospitality industries the results of two step dynamic panel suggest that turnover growth is positively associated with companies size during the observed period of economic recession 2008 2013 in both industries large and medium sized firms exhibit higher growth than do small firms

aggregation bias compositional change and the border effect borders affect the composition not only the level of interregional trade in disaggregated u s commodity flow data border effects vary substantially across commodities substantial border induced compositional change suggests the possibility that standard estimates suffer from aggregation bias arising from endogenous industry location patterns and the presence of zero observations in commodity level trade adjusting for these effects reduces the estimate of the aggregate border effect from 20 9 to 5 7 jel classification f14 f15 biais d agregation changement de composition et effet de frontieres les frontieres affectent la composition et pas seulement le volume de commerce inter regional une analyse des donnees desagregees des flux de commerce de biens des etats unis montre que l effet de frontieres varie substantiellement selon les biens le changement de composition du commerce engendre par les frontieres suggere la possibilite que les estimations usuelles souffrent d un biais d agregation resultant des patterns de localisation industrielle endogenes et de la presence d observations nulles dans le commerce de certains biens un ajustement pour tenir compte de ces effets suggere que les effets de frontieres passent de 20 9 a 5 7

short sale constraints information acquisition and asset prices abstract during financial crises financial market regulators often restrict short selling to support prices and curb volatility however evidence suggests that short selling bans during the turmoil in financial markets in 2007 2009 failed to achieve regulators goals we analyze a model of costly private information acquisition and asset pricing under short sale constraints to examine a possible cause of this failure we show that the constraints increase return volatility by adversely affecting the production of private information when investors are highly risk averse or are holding highly correlated risky assets the distortion in private information production arising from imposing short sale constraints leads to undervaluation implying that imposing short selling bans during economic crises not only fails to curb volatility but also may fail to support prices

short selling constraints as cause for price distortions an experimental study in this paper we explore the influence of the possibility to short stocks and or borrow money in laboratory markets a key innovation of our study is that subjects can simultaneously trade two risky assets on two double auction markets allowing us to differentiate between assets with relatively high versus low capitalization divergence of opinions is created by providing each trader with noisy information on the intrinsic values of both assets we find that when borrowing money or shorting stocks is restricted prices are systematically distorted specifically stocks with high low capitalization are traded at lower higher prices than their fundamental value lifting the restrictions leads to more efficient prices and more liquidity thereby also lowering volatility and bid ask spreads

a dynamic model of investment and endogenous growth models of endogenous growth assume that private investment in either physical or human capital yields positive externalities to production possibilities as a whole but what is the structure of such externalities we present a model of learning by watching which implies a nonlinear relationship between productivity growth and the investment rate this results in multiple steady state growth rates in a deterministic setting and in a rich dynamic structure that generates both growth and cycles in a stochastic model calibrated by reference to observable shocks to tax rates in the u k economies with identical structures can experience very different growth rates for long periods the model exhibits pathdependence and history matters

heterogeneity in expectations risk tolerance and household stock shares the attenuation puzzle this article jointly estimates the relationship between stock share and expectations and risk preferences the survey allows individual level quantitative estimates of risk tolerance and of the pe

the trade creating effects of business and social networks evidence from france using theory grounded estimations of trade flow equations this paper investigates the role that business and social networks play in shaping trade between french regions the bilateral intensity of networks is quantified using the financial structure and location of french firms and bilateral stocks of migrants compared to a situation without networks migrants are shown to double bilateral trade flows while networks of firms multiply trade flows by as much as four in some specifications finally taking network effects into account divides the estimation of the impact of transport costs and of the effect of administrative borders by around three

international transmission of environmental policy a new keynesian perspective in this paper we examine the international transmission of environmental policy using a new keynesian model of the global economy we first consider the case in which the quality of the environment affects utility but not productivity this allows us to look at the trade off between environmental quality and output we then consider the case in which the quality of the environment increases productivity but does not affect utility our main results show that in both cases a unilateral implementation of a more stringent environmental policy by the domestic country raises foreign welfare under a benchmark parameterization our modeling strategy allows an analysis of how nominal rigidities interact with the implementation of environmental reforms by allowing the domestic country to shift through exchange rate depreciation parts of the costs of more stringent environmental policies to the foreign one

short sales constraints and price discovery evidence from the hong kong market short sales practices in the hong kong stock market are unique in that only stocks on a list of designated securities can be sold short by analyzing the price effects following the addition of individual stocks to the list we find that short sales constraints tend to cause stock overvaluation and that the overvaluation effect is more dramatic for individual stocks for which wider dispersion of investor opinions exists these findings are consistent with miller s 1977 intuition and other optimism models we also document higher volatility and less positive skewness of individual stock returns when short sales are allowed the question of how short sales impact capital markets is highly controversial with short sale regulations varying widely across countries and capital markets 1 although short selling has been carried out for years in major financial markets around the world its effects on market efficiency especially on pricing efficiency remain of interest to financial researchers miller 1977 theorizes that in the presence of short sales constraints security prices tend to reflect a more optimistic valuation than the average opinion of potential investors and thus tend to be upward biased this overvaluation argument is based on two conditions 1 a security s short sales are either prohibited or costly and 2 investors have heterogeneous beliefs or information about the security s value the underlying intuition is quite straightforward pessimistic investors are forced to sit out of the market when short sales are not available and thus some negative information is not reflected in prices enabling enthusiastic buyers to bid prices above the level that average investors perceive as fair this argument has significant implications for market efficiency theories since one of the major functions of capital markets is price discovery indeed an efficient market should be a market in which prices always

measuring internal trade distances a new method applied to estimate provincial border effects in canada in this paper we suggest an improved methodology for comparing the intensity of trade across and within national and provincial boundaries earlier efforts to assess border effects for provinces or for countries without internal trade statistics made fairly arbitrary assumptions about average distances for internal trade flows we improve on earlier efforts by taking more complete account of the distribution of population within each province or country internal distance is estimated as a population weighted average of intra city and intercity distances as well as distances to and within rural areas we find higher estimates of internal distances and hence border effects than found in previous studies

second order beliefs and the individual investor in a panel survey of individual investors we show that investors second order beliefs their beliefs about the return expectations of other investors influence investment decisions investors who believe others hold more optimistic stock market expectations allocate more of their own portfolio to stocks even after controlling for their own risk and return expectations however second order beliefs are inaccurate and exhibit several well known psychological biases we observe both the tendency of investors to believe that their own opinion is relatively more common among the population false consensus and that others who hold divergent beliefs are considered to be biased bias blind spot

convergence and migration among provinces have regional disparities in canada changed over the past thirty years this paper assesses the robustness of earlier findings of convergence in the levels and growth rates of provincial per capita gdp and then estimates the extent to which interprovincial and international migration is being influenced by regional differences in incomes and employment excerpt

factor movements and commodity trade as complements abstract several models are presented in which factor mobility leads to an increase in the volume of world trade the models share the common characteristic that the basis for trade is something other than differences in relative factor endowments these alternative bases for trade include returns to scale imperfect competition production and factor taxes and differences in production technology taken together the models suggest a more general idea the widely held notion that trade in goods and factors are substitutes is in fact a rather special result which is a general characteristic only of factor proportions models

portfolio inertia and stock market fluctuations this paper uses population wide data from the panel study of income dynamics and the survey of consumer finances to resolve the conflict between overtrading and inactivity shown in administrative data on brokerage and retirement accounts respectively considerable inertia is found and linked to characteristics e g limited education or resources but less to index movements the downswing has encouraged staying out rather than getting out of the market the small minority with brokerage accounts exhibits important differences in trading patterns relative to the population and invests small fractions of wealth in brokerage accounts results strengthen the case for default options in retirement accounts and built in trading provisions in mutual funds

when r2 meets the short sales constraints we examine the short selling in the hong kong stock market and find that after the lift of short sales constraint the r2 increases contradicting the traditional wisdom that r2 is a proxy of price inefficiency moreover the change of r2 is from the decrease in idiosyncratic volatility

individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis combining monthly survey data with matching trading records we examine how individual investor perceptions change and drive trading and risk taking behavior during the 2008 2009 financial crisis we find that investor perceptions fluctuate significantly during the crisis with risk tolerance and risk perceptions being less volatile than return expectations during the worst months of the crisis investors return expectations and risk tolerance decrease while their risk perceptions increase towards the end of the crisis investor perceptions recover we document substantial swings in trading and risk taking behavior that are driven by changes in investor perceptions overall individual investors continue to trade actively and do not de risk their investment portfolios during the crisis

short sales and speed of price adjustment evidence from the hong kong stock market abstract we present empirical evidence that short sales contribute to market efficiency by increasing the speed of price adjustment to not only private public firm specific information but also market wide information shortable stocks are characterized by weaker trade continuity and stronger quote reversals they adjust faster to new information than non shortable counterparts these findings remain robust even in an up market condition in which short sales are not binding the amount of information incorporated in each trade is also significantly higher for shortable than non shortable stocks in both up and down market conditions after controlling for firm size trading volume liquidity price and option trading short sales stand out as one of the significant factors that speed up the price adjustment

the informational effects of restrictions on short sales some empirical evidence in a world of heterogeneous investors a competitive financial market has two major functions first it is the mechanism by which ownership of the existing supply of risky assets is distributed among investors this is the role which is analyzed in detail by the standard capital asset pricing model capm and its many extensions the second important market function is to aggregate the diverse information held by different investors into a single price most versions of the capm eliminate the information aggregation function by assuming that investors hold homogeneous beliefs with respect to the probability distribution of asset returns exceptions which deal with some aspects of the problem are lintner 7 grossman 4 grossman and stiglitz 5 and figlewski 1 3

price convexity and skewness this paper develops a model in which investors who are prohibited from short selling agree to disagree on the precision of a publicly observed signal the model implies that the equilibrium price is a convex function of the public signal the model predicts that 1 the stock price reacts more to good news than to bad news 2 the skewness of stock returns is positively correlated with contemporaneous returns but negatively correlated with lagged returns 3 short sale constraints increase rather than decrease skewness and 4 disagreement about information precision increases skewness empirical tests conducted find supportive evidence for all these predictions

competitiveness and interregional as well as international trade the case of catalonia abstract recent years have seen a surge of interest among industrial organization economists in using data on international trade flows as windows into competitiveness for countries that are at least mid sized e g spain interregional trade tends to be as large as or significantly larger than international trade the case of catalonia a spanish region illustrates how ignoring interregional flows can lead to erroneous inferences about a region s external competitiveness accounting for catalonia s interregional as well as international flows shifts what is generally assessed to be a chronic trade deficit in goods into a surplus and changes diagnoses of which catalan sectors generate external surpluses and who its key trading partners are we also use a gravity model approach to estimate international border effects for catalonia

efficiency and the bear short sales and markets around the world we analyze cross sectional and time series information from 46 equity markets around the world to consider whether short sales restrictions affect the efficiency of the market and the distributional characteristics of returns to individual stocks and market indices we find some evidence that prices incorporate negative information faster in countries where short sales are allowed and practiced a common conjecture by regulators is that short sales restrictions can reduce the relative severity of a market panic we find strong evidence that in markets where short selling is either prohibited or not practiced market returns display significantly less negative skewness

short sales and stock price crash risk evidence from an emerging market abstract using a regulatory change in china as an exogenous shock we find that the removal of short sales constraints increases stock price crash risk this relation is attenuated when firms suffer less from information asymmetry highlighting the effect of interaction between uninformed and informed investors

decision making approaches and the propensity to default evidence and implications abstract this paper examines heterogeneity in the responsiveness to default options in a large state retirement plan focusing on individuals decision making approaches as well as their economic and demographic characteristics analyses of a survey of plan participants show that procrastination and the need for cognitive closure are important determinants of the likelihood of default this paper also explores an important implication of defaulting individuals who default are significantly more likely to subsequently express a desire to enroll in a different plan the desire to change plans is also correlated with numerous economic and decision making characteristics including procrastination

the environmental consequences of trade evidence from subnational trade flows abstract the debate over the environmental consequences of free trade is not only quite heated but also entails significant policy ramifications recently cross sectional analysis at the country level has made use of exogenous determinants of trade to identify the causal effect of trade on the environment finding moderate evidence of a beneficial impact of expanded trade on environmental quality given the stakes involved we revisit this finding using subnational data on trade flows across us states and several measures of pollution not only does the analysis shed further light on the debate at the international level but also addresses a heretofore unexamined question does greater inter regional commerce at the subnational level harm the environment our findings are striking providing further evidence against a negative environmental impact of trade for the majority of measures analyzed however several sources of heterogeneity arise that are noteworthy

networks and the disappearance of the intranational home bias abstract previous studies have shown that not only countries but also regions have a preference to trade within their administrative borders using unique trade flows data we also find a large home bias in spanish intranational trade however we show that this home bias tends to disappear once we take into account the higher density of social and business networks within regions than between regions we also find that the home bias does not disappear if intranational trade flows are measured in quantity rather than value this fact might explain why previous studies on other european countries still find an intranational home bias even when network effects are taken into account

the effect of broadband on european union trade a regional spatial approach the positive effect of information and communication technologies ict on trade between countries has been widely studied in the literature but how ict impacts regional trade is limited due to the lack of regional trade data in this paper we test whether broadband as a proxy for ict increases bilateral trade at the regional level in europe we use a novel regional trade database of european union regions and estimate an origin destination flow gravity model for 2007 and 2010 accounting for spatial dependence among trade flows our results indicate that broadband is positive and significant in explaining trade patterns between european regions during both time periods

national borders and international trade evidence from the european union in this paper the impact of national borders on international trade within the european union is considered using a gravity model i find that averaged over all eu countries intranational trade is about ten times as high as international trade with an eu partner country of similar size and distance this relatively strong home bias suggests that even within the european union national borders still have a decisive impact on trade patterns jel classification f02 f14 f15 o52 ce memoire examine l impact des frontieres nationales sur le commerce international a l interieur de l union europeenne on montre que en moyenne pour tous les pays de l union europeenne le commerce intranational est a peu pres dix fois plus important que le commerce international avec un pays partenaire de l union europeenne de meme taille et a meme distance ce degre relativement important de preference nationale suggere que meme dans le cadre de l union europeenne les frontieres nationales ont encore un impact determinant sur les patterns de commerce

arbitrage short sales and financial innovation the authors describe a model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets in which firms can innovate by issuing arbitrary costly securities when short sales are prohibited firms behave competitively and equilibrium is efficient when short sales are allowed these classical properties may fail if unlimited short sales are allowed imperfect competition may persist even when the number of potential innovators is large if limited short sales are allowed perfect competition may obtain in the limit but equilibrium can be inefficient because of the presence of an externality the private benefits of innovation for firms differ from the social benefits copyright 1991 by the econometric society

on endogenizing long run growth this assessment of recent theoretical work on endogenous growth identifies three different engines of long run growth i the asymptotic average product of capital is positive ii labor productivity increases as an external effect of capital accumulation iii there are feedback effects on the cost of accumulating knowledge or innovating a general model encompassing all three is considered and then used to review different proposed determinants of long run growth rates the contribution of endogenous growth theory has been to create a framework in which to explain why economic institutions and policies can have long run effects on growth rates

intra national home bias some explanations wolf demonstrates that trade within the united states appears substantially impeded by state borders we revisit this finding with improved data we show that much intranational home bias can be explained by wholesaling activity shipments by wholesalers are much more localized within states than shipments from manufacturing establishments controlling for relative prices and the use of actual rather than imputed shipment distances also reduces home bias estimates

connecting supply short sellers and stock returns research challenges abstract one key challenge for the short selling literature is to identify the incremental contribution of various measures of short sale constraints although variables such as loan fee loan supply and short interest are determined simultaneously in the market for borrowing stock new incremental information may be found in each variable examined papers such as beneish et al 2015 attempt to disentangle the effect of one particular variable and attempt to shed light on the parallel challenge faced by investors in determining which variables will make the most impact on returns as well as trading costs we discuss a number of practical approaches to this challenge and we also consider a potentially new take that considers accounting data driven anomalies as one of the possible exogenously determined variables in the equilibrium of the equity loan market

does short sale restriction lower price efficiency when substitutes exist evidence from the korean market using kospi200 index options futures and warrants this study examines the effect of short sale restriction on price efficiency by circumventing the concerns regarding firm characteristics market conditions and limited information acquisition of investors in previous empirical studies this study finds that warrants are as price efficient as other derivatives products after market conditions are considered even though warrant investors cannot short sell this finding provides an example that short sale restriction on some assets may not hinder market efficiency if there are close substitutes for those assets in the market

volume volatility and the dispersion of beliefs i examine a two period noisy rational expectations model of a futures market and show that the dispersion of expectations about a weighted average of future prices measures both the additional volatility and the additional expected volume of trade associated with noisy information the role played by dispersion helps clarify several stylized facts concerning volume and price behavior specifically dispersion can be a factor contributing to the positive correlation between volume and absolute price changes and the positive correlation between consecutive absolute price changes article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

trading as entertainment among 1 000 german brokerage clients for whom both survey responses and actual trading records are available investors who report enjoying investing or gambling turn over their portfolio at twice the rate of their peers including entertainment attributes as additional explanatory variables in cross sectional regressions of portfolio turnover on objective investor attributes more than doubles the fraction of the total variation of portfolio turnover that can be explained the results are robust to controlling for gender and proxies for overconfidence constructed from survey responses nonpecuniary benefits of trading thus appear to offer a straightforward explanation of the excessive trading puzzle

potential pilot problems treatment spillovers in financial regulatory experiments abstract the total effects of a regulatory change consist of direct effects and indirect effects spillovers but the standard difference in difference approach mostly ignores potential indirect effects during the 2007 full repeal of the uptick rule short sellers become much more aggressive across the board even in control stocks where the uptick rule is already suspended this finding is consistent with positive and significant indirect effects on control stocks likely driven by aggressive broad list based shorting in contract the indirect effect coefficients on shorting aggressiveness are negative for the 2005 partial uptick repeal possibly due to substitutions between control and treatment stocks

the disappearance of the border barrier in some european union countries bilateral trade this paper estimates the tariff equivalent of the border barrier in each bilateral trade among european union countries the results show that there are large differences in the border barrier across european union countries bilateral trade in some bilateral trade flows the border barrier has almost disappeared whereas in other cases it is still equivalent to a 75 per cent tariff the results also show that some countries have low border barriers in most of their bilateral trade flows with other eu members whereas other countries persistently present large border barriers

short selling margin trading and price efficiency evidence from the chinese market abstract china launched a pilot scheme in march 2010 to lift the ban on short selling and margin trading for stocks on a designated list we find that stocks experience negative returns when added to the list after the ban is lifted price efficiency increases while stock return volatility decreases panel data regressions reveal that intensified short selling activities are associated with improved price efficiency short sellers trade to eliminate overpricing by selling stocks with higher contemporaneous returns following a downward trend and their trades predict future returns in contrast we find intensified margin trading activities for stocks with lower contemporaneous returns and these trades have no return predictive power