dynamic conjectural variations in a lanchester oligopoly an approach based on dynamic conjectural variations is advanced for developing dynamic advertising strategies in a lanchester oligopoly differential game the approach allows competitors to anticipate rival reactions to market share state variables and maintains the computational advantage of open loop nash equilibrium strategies in an empirical application to the ready to eat cereal industry it is shown that advertising strategies based on dynamic conjectural variations can better explain the advertising of the cereal competitors than can open loop advertising strategies

the role of firm size in bilateral bargaining a study of the cable television industry we examine the effect of buyer merger on bilateral negotiations between a supplier and n buyers merger may have bargaining effects in addition to the usual efficiency effects the effect of merger on the buyers bargaining position depends on the curvature of the supplier s gross surplus function merger enhances worsens the buyers bargaining position if the function is concave convex based on a panel of advertising revenue in the cable television industry our estimates indicate that the gross surplus function for suppliers of program services is convex this result suggests that cable operators integrate horizontally to realize efficiency gains rather than to enhance their bargaining position vis a vis program suppliers

on measuring competitive viability and monopoly power in cable an empirical cost approach this study provides empirical evidence concerning the economic feasibility of competition in the local market for video delivery services using responses from the fcc s 1995 cost survey we jointly estimate a translog cost function with factor share equations to evaluate subadditivity the fitted total cost of each firm is compared with the cost of two firms providing the same total output in eleven different market scenarios although costs were mildly superadditive in the vast majority of cases they were lower when one firm provided the output average cost savings with respect to a monopoly were fairly small ranging from 1 37 with a 10 market overlap to 5 05 with a complete overbuild we also calculated marginal cost from the fitted total cost equation and a price for cable services derived from the fcc survey data using these results and rubinovitz s price elasticity of 1 46 we estimated that reregulation had a regulatory effectiveness of 0 3251 and held prices to 40 5 of the monopoly level

interaction of pricing advertising and experience quality a dynamic analysis for certain goods or services the quality of the product can be assessed by customers only after consumption we determine the optimal time paths for pricing advertising and quality for a profit maximizing firm facing demand that is influenced both by this experience quality as well as by advertising in particular there may exist two optimal trajectories separated by an indifference threshold in which the firm has the same utility of converging to either of the two long run steady states or to put it in a nutshell the optimal mix of marketing instruments may lead to history dependence one implication is that there may be a market failure such that a government subsidy could help reach the steady state that is best for the economy in the sense of having greater sales and a higher quality product

a new product growth for model consumer durables this article originally appeared in management science january 1969 volume 15 number 5 pp 215 227 published by the institute of management sciences a growth model for the timing of initial purchase of new products is developed and tested empirically against data for eleven consumer durables the basic assumption of the model is that the timing of a consumer s initial purchase is related to the number of previous buyers a behavioral rationale for the model is offered in terms of innovative and imitative behavior the model yields good predictions of the sales peak and the timing of the peak when applied to historical data a long range forecast is developed for the sales of color television sets

the relation between chinese economic development and energy consumption in the different periods since the 1980s chinese economy grew rapidly with the rapid economic growth chinese energy consumption sharply increased the relation between chinese energy consumption and economic growth is focused on and many researchers have studied this issue by applying the methods such as granger causality test however the results just reveal the relation in a very long period in this paper the history of chinese economy is divided into four periods and the relation between chinese energy consumption and economic growth is examined by applying grey incidence analysis which is one of the most important methods of grey system theory which can be applied to solve the problems with small samples the results show that the relations in different periods are not the same the degree of grey incidences between total energy consumption and values added of secondary industry is larger and the degree of grey incidences between gdp and consumption of coal is larger too and the policy implications of these results are explained

quality and the diffusion of innovations in this paper we solve the problem of optimal control of products diffusion by quality in a context of monopolistic competition to do so we introduce a dynamic demand function leaning on two hypotheses first price acts a signal of quality second demand is more sensitive to quality than to price using the maximum principle of pontryagin we then characterize the optimal dynamic trajectory of quality and its qualitative properties

ftt power a global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion abstract this work introduces a model of future technology transformations for the power sector ftt power a representation of global power systems based on market competition induced technological change itc and natural resource use and depletion it is the first component of a family of sectoral bottom up models of technology designed for integration into the global macroeconometric model e3mg itc occurs as a result of technological learning produced by cumulative investment and leads to highly nonlinear irreversible and path dependent technological transitions the model uses a dynamic coupled set of logistic differential equations as opposed to traditional bottom up energy models based on systems optimisation such differential equations offer an appropriate treatment of the times and structure of change involved in sectoral technology transformations as well as a much reduced computational load resource use and depletion are represented by local cost supply curves which give rise to different regional energy landscapes the model is explored for a single global region using two simple scenarios a baseline and a mitigation case where the price of carbon is gradually increased while a constant price of carbon leads to a stagnant system mitigation produces successive technology transitions leading towards the gradual decarbonisation of the global power sector

trade and consumption of energy varieties empirical analysis of selected west africa economies abstract this paper examined the relationship between consumption of energy varieties total electricity and road transport and trade export and import in selected west african countries data spanning 1971 to 2010 was used to estimate vector error correction models vecm for 6 countries based on data availability empirical analysis showed that there is insignificant linkage between consumption of energy varieties and export of benin however there is a one way positive linkage running from energy varieties to import of the country for cote d ivoire energy varieties have insignificant relationship with export and import however while inverse relationship runs from export to both electricity and road transport energy consumption positive direct association runs from import to total energy and transport energy consumption with respect to ghana positive causality runs from electricity and road transport energy consumption to export however there is a significant positive feedback effect between import and electricity as well as road transport energy consumption for nigeria there is a significant positive link running from both electricity and road transport energy consumption to export and import senegal s case suggests a bi directional inverse linkage between export and total energy consumption for togo both export and import are insignificantly linked with energy use these mixed findings generate different policy implications across the selected west african countries which are well articulated in the paper

when in a drug epidemic should the policy objective switch from use reduction to harm reduction a heated debate in drug policy concerns the relative merits of harm reduction e g reducing drugrelated hiv aids transmission vs use reduction controlling drug use per se this paper models whether shifting emphasis between these goals over the course of a drug epidemic might reduce social costs relative to pursuing one or the other exclusively results suggest different answers for different drugs and or countries in particular harm reduction may have always been effective for australia s injection drug use problem but for us cocaine it may not have been in the past even if it could be so today in certain circumstances harm reduction may tip an epidemic toward a high rather than low use equilibrium the location in state space of regions where this occurs can be sensitive to parameter changes suggesting caution may be in order when advocating harm reduction unless there is confidence the epidemic has been modeled and parameterized accurately

public disclosure programs vs traditional approaches for environmental regulation green goodwill and the policies of the firm abstract a public disclosure program pdp is compared to a traditional environmental regulation exemplified by a tax subsidy in a simple dynamic framework a pdp aims at revealing the environmental record of firms to the public this information affects its image goodwill or brand equity and ultimately its profit a firm polluting less than its prescribed target would win consumer s sympathy and raise its goodwill whereas it is the other way around when the firm exceeds its emissions quota the evolution of this goodwill is assumed to depend also on green activities or advertising expenditures within this framework we analyze how a pdp affects the firm s optimal policies regarding emissions pricing and advertising as compared to a traditional regulation we show that advertising acts as a complementary device to pricing and that emissions are increasing in goodwill the role of a standard or target level for emissions turns out to be totally different under both policy regimes in the case of a tax subsidy approach this target level only acts as constant who increases or decreases profit by a fixed amount but it does not affect the policy of the firm on the contrary if a pdp is implemented the target value for emissions enters in an important way in the goodwill accumulation mechanism and determines how the firm reacts to the regulation and what is the time path for the economic and environmental variables moreover this value is also crucial to determine the possibility that a pdp is profit improving a policy implication of this fact is that regulators should be particularly careful in fixing the emission standard when a pdp is applied the theoretical results are complemented with a numerical illustration

energy consumption and economic growth in turkey during the past two decades the turkish economy has undergone a transformation from agricultural to industrial enhanced by rapid urbanization especially after 1982 turkey s gross national production has grown at an average annual rate of 5 since 1983 ranking it at the top of the oecd countries although the growth pattern has been uneven economic growth in recent years has been associated with the privatization of public enterprises turkey s energy demand has risen rapidly as a result of social and economic development the country s energy consumption has grown considerably since the beginning of the 1980s the turkish government encourages foreign and turkish private sector investors to implement the energy projects and is currently working on a new investment model for the construction of new generation plants to create the additional capacity needed the turkish energy sector with its current size of 30 billion us dollars and projected size of 55 billion us dollars by 2015 as well as the fundamental restructuring process it has been going through since 2001 attracts both local and foreign investors the sector needs an investment amount of approximately 130 billion us dollars by 2020 the aim of the present paper is to investigate the increasing of turkish energy demand with the growth of the economy and utilization of domestic energy sources and the case of investments and imports in turkey during the past two decades

on continuous time optimal advertising under s shaped response continuous time monopolistic models of advertising expenditure that rely on strict response concavity have been shown to prescribe eventual spending at a constant rate however analyses of discrete analogs have suggested thats shaped response convexity for low expenditure levels may allow for the periodic optima encountered in actual practice casting the dynamic between advertising and sales in a common format an autonomous first order relationship the present paper explores extensions along three dimensions an s shaped response function the value of the discount rate and the possibility of diffusion like response supplementing the treatment by mahajan and muller 1986 a flexible class of s shaped response models is formulated for which it is demonstrated that in contrast to findings in the literature on discretized advertising models continuous periodic optima cannot be supported further a set of conditions on the advertising response function are derived that contains and extends that suggested by sasieni 1971 collectively these results both suggest a set of baseline properties that reasonable models should possess and cast doubt on the ability of first order models to capture effects of known managerial relevance

competition in a duopoly with sticky price and advertising abstract this paper develops a differential duopolistic game where price is sticky and firms can invest in market enlarging promotional activities which have a public good nature one finding indicates that advertising and not output as in fershtman and kamien econometrica 55 1987 1151 1164 is responsible for the higher stationary price found in the open loop equilibrium relative to the linear feedback one that is free riding is more intense when firms play linear markov feedback strategies however the collusive outcome can be approximated and opportunism eliminated if firms can engage in preplay negotiations where they select a nonlinear markov perfect strategy for output and advertising achieving the collusive outcome requires as in the folk theorem for infinitely repeated games the discount rate to be sufficiently small

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from china at both aggregated and disaggregated levels using a neo classical aggregate production model where capital labor and energy are treated as separate inputs this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in china at both aggregated total energy and disaggregated levels as coal oil and electricity consumption using the johansen cointegration technique the empirical findings indicate that there exists long run cointegration among output labor capital and energy use in china at both aggregated and all three disaggregated levels then using a vec specification the short run dynamics of the interested variables are tested indicating that there exists granger causality running from electricity and oil consumption to gdp but does not exist granger causality running from coal and total energy consumption to gdp on the other hand short run granger causality exists from gdp to total energy coal and oil consumption but does not exist from gdp to electricity consumption we thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in china as enhancing energy supply security and guaranteeing energy supply especially in the short run to provide adequate electric power supply and set up national strategic oil reserve enhancing energy efficiency to save energy diversifying energy sources energetically exploiting renewable energy and drawing out corresponding policies and measures and finally in the long run transforming development pattern and cut reliance on resource and energy dependent industries

quality improvement and goodwill accumulation in a dynamic duopoly abstract this paper analyzes optimal advertising and quality improvement decisions by duopolist firms competing in a dynamic setting an extended version of the lanchester model is formulated where conformance quality and goodwill are both involved in competition for market share each competitor s new customer attraction rate depends on its own goodwill while the disloyalty rate for current customers is influenced by the proportion of defective items the search for a non cooperative solution by qualitative as well as numerical means leads to definition of the optimal path for advertising and improvement efforts for each competitor examined under a wide range of configurations

optimal control of interacting systems with dnss property the case of illicit drug use abstract in this paper we generalize a one dimensional optimal control problem with dnss property to a two dimensional optimal control problem this is done by taking the direct product of the model with itself i e we combine two similar system dynamics under a joint objective functional that is separable in both states and controls this framework can be applied to the construction of various optimal control problems such as optimal marketing of related products optimal growth of separate but interacting economies or optimal control of two related capital stocks we study such a system for a particular case drawn from the domain of drug control the main result of this paper is that in this domain even a modest amount of interaction can sometimes make a very big difference hence drawing conclusions by simplifying the real world into two independent one dimensional models may be problematic methodologically the combination of two systems with dnss property leads to a fascinating series of situations with multiple optimal steady states and associated threshold behavior these instances reflect some important recent developments in optimal dynamic control theory

energy consumption and economic growth in central america evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model abstract this study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for six central american countries over the period 1980 2004 within a multivariate framework given the relatively short span of the time series data a panel cointegration and error correction model is employed to infer the causal relationship based on the heterogeneous panel cointegration test by pedroni pedroni p 1999 critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 61 653 670 pedroni p 2004 panel cointegration asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the ppp hypothesis new results econometric theory 20 597 627 cointegration is present between real gdp energy consumption the labor force and real gross fixed capital formation with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the granger causality results indicate the presence of both short run and long run causality from energy consumption to economic growth which supports the growth hypothesis

quality effects in different advertising models an impulse control approach abstract in this paper we integrate quality as a control variable in three classical dynamic optimal control models of advertising namely nerlove arrow vidale wolfe and ozga models quality refers to design quality which may deteriorate over time we assume that decisions in quality improvement can only be made at some exogenously given instants of time and consequently we use the formalism of impulse optimal control to determine optimal advertising and quality investments we report numerical results for the three models and discuss the impact of adding quality on the results

the effect of urbanization affluence and trade openness on energy consumption a time series analysis in malaysia abstract this paper investigates the impact of urbanization on energy consumption by applying the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat in case of malaysia the study covers the time period of 1970q1 2011q4 the unit root test and the ardl bounds testing approach have been applied to examine integrating properties and long run relationship in the presence of structural breaks our results validated the existence of cointegration and exposed that urbanization is a major contributor in energy consumption affluence raises energy demand capital stock boosts energy consumption trade openness leads to affluence and hence increases energy consumption the causality analysis finds that urbanization granger causes energy consumption the feedback effect is found between energy consumption and affluence and energy consumption and capital the bidirectional causality exists between trade openness and energy consumption

advertising strategies for new product diffusion in emerging markets propositions and analysis abstract we develop advertising strategies for a firm which has a new product for which demand exists in an emerging market however the primary channels for distribution of the firm s product do not exist because either the market has not been opened up or the firm has not entered the market therefore the consumers use the secondary channels in other markets the current research seeks to answer questions such as i is it beneficial to advertise for the product before the market opens ii what should be the difference in advertising before and after the market opens iii what is the effect of various parameters such as the likelihood of product adoption for the primary and secondary channels market potential and coefficient of innovation and imitation on the optimal advertising policies the above problem is relevant for the situation faced by japanese electronics goods manufacturers before they entered the indian market or a company which has regional presence in one part of a country say urban and gets access to another part later e g rural the problem is modeled as an optimal control problem relevant propositions are developed for optimal normative advertising policy numerical examples are provided to illustrate key policy results

optimal strategies for general price quality decision models of new products with learning production costs abstract the question of product quality permeates every level of business and is becoming crucial for the survival of modern manufacturing firms in automotive and high tech industries in this paper we deal with the optimal price and quality policies for the introduction of a new product on the supply side the firm wants to determine the unit price and quality level over time given that unit cost declines along a learning curve and increases if quality is made greater on the demand side dynamic demand is related to price and quality as well as to cumulative sales which represent diffusion and saturation effects we will model this problem in a general framework that includes several previous results as special cases by applying the maximum principle we will derive the optimal price and quality policies and discover the interactions between these two major strategic marketing instruments and the diffusion process several fundamental theoretical results will be established for the model under certain specified conditions higher prices do imply higher quality and under other conditions the optimal price declines over time while the product quality improves to illustrate these results the theoretical results are applied to two specific cases the first one is a simple nonseparable demand growth function in price and quality the other is a separable demand function of price and quality

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

optimal advertising when envisioning a product harm crisis how should forward looking managers plan advertising if they envision a product harm crisis in the future to address this question we propose a dynamic model of brand advertising in which at each instant a nonzero probability exists for the occurrence of a crisis event that damages the brand s baseline sales and may enhance or erode marketing effectiveness when the crisis occurs because managers do not know when the crisis will occur its random time of occurrence induces a stochastic control problem which we solve analytically in closed form more importantly the envisioning of a possible crisis alters managers rate of time preference anticipation enhances impatience that is forward looking managers discount the present even when the crisis has not occurred more than they would in the absence of crisis building on this insight we then derive the optimal feedback advertising strategies and assess the effects of crisis likelihood and damage rate we discover the crossover interaction the optimal precrisis advertising decreases but the postcrisis advertising increases as the crisis likelihood or damage rate increases in addition we develop a new continuous time estimation method to simultaneously estimate sales dynamics and feedback strategies using discrete time data applying the method to market data from the ford explorer s rollover recall we furnish evidence to support the proposed model we detect compensatory effects in parametric shift ad effectiveness increases but carryover effect decreases or vice versa we also characterize the crisis occurrence distribution that shows that ford explorer should anticipate a crisis in 2 1 years and within 6 3 years at the 95 confidence level finally we find a remarkable correspondence between the observed and optimal advertising decisions

a graphical exposition of the economic theory of regulation i introduction historically many if not most economic theories have advanced in three fairly distinct stages progressing from descriptive to graphical to mathematical formulations generally in that sequence the economic theory of regulation however has been an exception to this normal order of progression the fundamental corpus of this theory was laid out initially in the descriptive discussions provided by stigler 1971 posner 1974 and others from these early presentations however the theory was subsequently formalized mathematically by peltzman 1976 and becker 1983 without passing through the graphical stage of its development 1 regardless of the chronological order of the progression of this theory however we believe that a fully developed graphical exposition is likely to be of considerable value even now at least two considerations support this view specifically by making this theory more accessible to a wider audience and by better illustrating the basic underlying mechanics behind it the likelihood of significant future advancement we believe is enhanced indeed currently there remain a number of observed regulatory phenomena that have yet to be satisfactorily explained by the existing theory e g the deregulation movement and the specific pattern of observed cross subsidies 2 an improved understanding of the fundamental components of the theory should facilitate its further advancement and lead to an expanded ability to explain a broader range of regulatory practices we illustrate this point through a variety of applications to provide an improved understanding of inter alia the markets likely to be chosen for regulation the propensity of regulatory benefits to be spread across interest groups the symbiotic nature of regulation and cross subsidization and the economics of deregulation we also are able to depict graphically the relationship between the economic theory of regulation and the traditional normative model of regulation which assumes that regulators maximize social welfare the article is organized as follows in section ii we briefly describe the regulator s general optimization problem viz what precisely is being maximized and what constraints apply to that maximization problem the latter topic the constraints will be of primary interest here section iii presents the formal graphical analysis of these constraints by deriving what we label the regulator s benefits budget constraint as its name suggests the benefits budget constraint defines the locus of maximum benefits the regulator is able to deliver to the affected interest groups importantly that constraint is determined by the prior unregulated market equilibrium price and output and by general market parameters such as demand elasticity costs and so on section iv describes the resulting regulatory equilibrium section v then applies the graphical tools developed in sections ii iv to explain a number of commonly observed regulatory phenomena here both the ability to provide new insights and the pedagogical value of the graphical approach are illustrated finally section vi concludes ii the regulator s general optimization problem the economic theory of regulation postulates that regulators will attempt to maximize some objective function most generally the regulator s utility by implementing regulatory policies that benefit and by necessity harm particular interest groups 3 the benefits provided to these groups are then used to purchase from them the objects that are directly valued by the regulator that is the direct arguments contained in the regulator s objective function the distribution of these benefits and harms across the affected groups which is determined by the regulator s choice of a particular regulatory policy is selected to maximize the value of the regulator s objective function the ability of any specific interest group to curry regulatory favor then will depend on the capacity of that group to deliver the objects of value to the regulator in exchange for the benefits provided by the regulatory process

optimal control of drug epidemics prevent and treat but not at the same time drug use and related problems change substantially over time so it seems plausible that drug interventions should vary too to investigate this possibility we set up a continuous time version of the first order difference equation model of cocaine use introduced by everingham and rydell 1994 extended to make initiation an endogenous function of prevalence we then formulate and solve drug treatment and prevention spending decisions in the framework of dynamic optimal control under different assumptions about how freely drug control budgets can be manipulated insights include 1 the effectiveness of prevention and treatment depend critically on the stage in the epidemic in which they are employed prevention is most appropriate when there are relatively few heavy users e g in the beginning of an epidemic treatment is more effective later 2 hence the optimal mix of interventions varies over time 3 the transition period when it is optimal to use extensively both prevention and treatment is brief 4 total social costs increase dramatically if control is delayed

the demand to regulate franchise monopoly evidence from catv rate deregulation in california the demand to regulate franchise monopoly evidence from catv rate deregulation in california the motivation to price control a franchise monopoly is examined in the context of three distinct economic views of regulatory behavior these views are tested against data from the california cable television market over the years 1980 85 during which a subset of monopoly firms converted from regulated to unregulated pricing for basic cable service as the price constraints of regulation appear to be insignificant in a welfare analysis the demand for such controls by municipalities is derived from their utility in enforcing vote maximizing transfer schemes a peltzmanian political outcome with a stiglerian economic welfare result i introduction since the pathbreaking inquiry by stigler and friedland 1962 it has been fair game for economists to investigate how the publicly stated goals of regulation square with the observed economic results whereas empirical research has often revealed a surprisingly low correlation theoretical models of political behavior have been developed to explain how regulators would rationally attempt to maximize political strength and hence personal utility by pursuing a support maximizing transfer scheme how far such incentive structures for regulators go toward enhancing consumer welfare is the primary concern of public policy analysis by economists indeed the study of regulatory results has yielded new insights into the antecedent demand for regulation when publicly announced goals are not achieved economists are often tempted to attribute the discrepancy not to random error but to a strategic desire to mask intended transfer schemes hence results of regulation can shed light on the motives for regulation this paper inquires into the motivations for municipal regulation of the cable television market part ii sets three previously developed views of regulatory behavior into a unified framework and reviews previous research on price regulation in the electric utility industry part iii describes an efficiency test for cable rate regulation in california in a sector dominated by municipally assigned franchise monopolies price and output effects of regulation are likely to be most dramatic and hence most informative moreover cable s changing regulatory regime offers grist for analysis in part iv i examine evidence from the 1979 partial deregulation of catv in california and draw inferences regarding the demand to regulate cable franchises in part v my conclusions appear in part vi ii regulatory behavior at least three alternative models of regulatory behavior have been advanced in the literature looking at the world in the peltzman 1976 sense politicians regulators are seen as engaging in two dimensional support maximization in that redistributing income by whatever institutional method necessarily involves losers as well as winners some competitive equilibrium of transfers will be achieved by maximizing political actors see figure 1 panel a as a rule regulators will transfer wealth from consumers and towards the regulated industry just up to the point at which the marginal industry support gained is equal to the marginal consumer support lost fortuitously peltzman s paradigmatic political regulatory decision focuses upon the correlation between output price and profits of a regulated public utility seen in the profit hill in panel a of figure 1 and the trade off faced specifically by the regulatory agent in gaining support from one constituency at the cost of support from another as in the u sup p indifference curve in figure 1 this framework dovetails with the discussion of price regulation in cable to follow peltzman saw the regulator as a public policy auctioneer garnering maximum political support from both consumers and producers in establishing an optimal regulated price

demand pricing and regulation evidence from the cable tv industry subsequent to the nationwide deregulation of the cable tv industry a number of questions have been raised concerning the conduct of cable firms answers to these questions turn upon a fundamental set of issues regarding the economic relationships of demand pricing and regulation in this article we empirically examine these relationships for the period prior to deregulation a number of basic findings emerge among these we find that the demand for basic cable service ranges from being generally inelastic in rural areas to elastic in large urban markets the elasticity of demand for pay cable services is typically well in excess of unity also while regulation did not lead to economically efficient marginal cost prices for basic cable service it did act to keep prices below monopoly levels moreover our examination reveals some significant differences in the effectiveness of the various types of regulation practiced in the pre deregulation period

dynamic capacity allocation to customers who remember past service we study the problem faced by a supplier deciding how to dynamically allocate limited capacity among a portfolio of customers who remember the fill rates provided to them in the past a customer s order quantity is positively correlated with past fill rates customers differ from one another in their contribution margins their sensitivities to the past and in their demand volatilities by analyzing and comparing policies that ignore goodwill with ones that account for it we investigate when and how customer memory effects impact supplier profits we develop an approximate dynamic programming policy that dynamically rationalizes the fill rates the firm provides to each customer this policy achieves higher rewards than margin greedy and lagrangian policies and yields insights into how a supplier can effectively manage customer memories to its advantage this paper was accepted by martin lariviere operations management

china s energy demand and its characteristics in the industrialization and urbanization process a reply zhang and qin 2013 argued that in jiang and lin 2012 the equation form and variable selection should be altered and it was problematic to use regression equation to project the future in this reply we disagree with and will refute some of the points raised in their comments the model that we established was based on the mature economic theory with the variable selections all having economic implications considering the economic development stage china s urbanization will speed up and this will have significant effect on energy consumption therefore urbanization is an indispensable variable for analyzing energy demand in china the scenario design only in terms of the gdp is sufficient for illustrating energy demand trend in china to be understood in a way by most of the people although energy forecast is not that precise it has an important implication for energy policy design especially for china which is in transition and china s energy demand will keep high growth in the mid term

social contagion and income heterogeneity in new product diffusion a meta analytic test standard diffusion models capture social contagion only coarsely and do not allow one to operationalize different contagion mechanisms moreover there is increasing skepticism about the importance of contagion and as has long been known s shaped diffusion curves can also result from heterogeneity in the propensity to adopt we present hypotheses about conditions under which specific contagion mechanisms and income heterogeneity are more pronounced and test these hypotheses using a meta analysis of the q p ratio in applications of the bass diffusion model the ratio is positively associated with the gini index of income inequality in a country supporting the heterogeneity in thresholds interpretation the ratio also varies as predicted by the gamma shifted gompertz diffusion model but the evidence vanishes after controlling for national culture as to contagion the q p ratio varies with the four hofstede dimensions of national culture for three of them in a direction consistent with the social contagion interpretation furthermore products with competing standards have a higher q p ratio which is again consistent with the social contagion interpretation finally we find effects of national culture only for products without competing standards suggesting that technological effects and culturally moderated social contagion effects might not operate independently from each other

the impact of energy consumption and co2 emission on the economic and financial development in 19 selected countries abstract this study investigated the impact of energy consumption on the economic and financial development in 19 countries these countries were selected due to the fact that the financial development indicators contribute an important share to their total gdp the panel model was employed taking the period of 1980 to 2008 the results show that energy consumption enables these countries to achieve high economic and financial development however the high development that these countries have achieved in the late three decades increased the co 2 emission it is important that these countries should reduce the level of pollution through utilizing energy protection policies such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions or increasing the share of clean energy of their total energy consumption

firm behavior in franchise monopoly markets this article presents empirical evidence concerning the value offranchise bidding competition as a means of controlling natural monopoly behavior the analysis focuses on the cable television industry using data collected in a survey of local government officials in cabled communities throughout the continental united states one important potential problem raised by critics offranchise bidding is the ability offranchise winners to engage in ex post opportunistic behavior by reneging on the promises that they made in order to win the franchise contract the results of my analysis suggest that although franchise competition does leadfirms to engage in some degree of opportunistic behavior the extent of opportunism is not severe furthermore reputation effects appear to play a role in constraining firm behavior while rate regulation actually seems to exacerbate ex post behavioral problems

optimal entry timing in markets with social influence firms routinely face the challenging decision of whether to enter a new market where a firm s strong presence in an existing market has a positive influence the leverage effect on product adoption in the new market but the reciprocal social influence on the existing market is negative the backlash effect in this paper we show that a firm s optimal entry strategy in this situation cannot be characterized by the familiar now or never or now or at maturity strategies proposed in the literature we show that a strong leverage effect does not necessarily provide the justification for a firm to enter a new market and neither should a strong backlash effect necessarily deter a firm from embracing a new market the optimal strategy is predicated on a judicious trade off between the three factors of leverage backlash and patience thus an astute manager can always find the opportune time to enter the new market if she takes into account the dynamic and recursive nature of cross market interaction effects where leverage enhances the backlash but backlash weakens the leverage in a nonlinear dynamic fashion we illustrate that firms stand to benefit from explicit considerations of these effects in deciding whether and when to enter a new market furthermore we explore how the optimal time of entry into the new market relates to the time of peak sales for the existing market demonstrating that depending on the interactive effects of leverage and backlash entry could be optimal either before or after peak sales in the existing market

on the generalizability of advertising pulsation monopoly results to an oligopoly this paper introduces for the first time an analytical framework for modeling and analyzing sales response to advertising pulsation for competitive markets of mature products in continuous time for discrete piecewise policies that allow unequal cycle lengths employing a nash equilibrium solution concept this study supported with numerical analysis demonstrates that there is an oligopolistic as opposed to a monopolistic justification for advertising at a constant rate in the presence of concave response functions or advertising according to a pulsing policy in the presence of s shaped response functions the article employs a modeling framework whereby each of a set of competitors responses to advertising spending is governed mainly by lanchester type response is used to analyze the game resulting from cyclical advertising policies that are strictly adhered to by all players a non discounted averaged performance is used to assess the purported optimality of different variants of piecewise constant policies

advertising in a dynamic spatial monopoly this paper characterises the dynamics of advertising investment in a spatial monopoly contrasting the socially optimal behaviour of a benevolent planner against that of a profit seeking monopolist in steady state the monopolist always distorts both output and advertising decisions as compared to the social optimum except in a situation where under both monopoly and social planning the equilibrium entails full market coverage

the impact of the 1992 cable act on household demand and welfare i measure the benefit to households of the 1992 cable act in light of strategic responses by cable systems to the regulations mandated by the act a discrete choice differentiatedproduct model of household demand for all offered cable television services forms the basis of the analysis aggregation over households and service combinations to the level of the data permits estimation on a cross section of cable markets from before and after the act the results indicate that while the regulations mandated price reductions of 10 17 for cable services observed system responses yielded no change in household welfare post act changes in cable prices are responsible for most of the difference

market power of local cable television franchises evidence from the effects of deregulation the 1989 cable act eliminated most price regulation of cable television operators including the right of municipalities to enforce price terms in franchise agreements deregulation was justified at least partially by the contention that competition from other entertainment media eliminated any market power of cable franchises we examine the value at sale of existing cable systems before and after deregulation assuming that this value represents the expected present value of future profits deregulation had the predicted negligible effect on profits in cities with significant broadcast competition however profits appear to have increased in areas where the competition from broadcast television was less severe we explore several explanations for this increase and conclude that significant market power is the most plausible explanation

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

why present oriented societies undergo cycles of drug epidemics musto the american disease yale university press new homen 1987 hypothesizes that cycles of drug use arise when the current generation of youth no longer remembers the adverse experiences of their forebears this paper underlines this hypothesis through the results of an optimal control model of drug epidemics that incorporates an endogenous initiation function models the reputation of a drug as being determined by memories of past use and finds the optimal drug treatment strategy interestingly unless the societal discount rate is quite low if memories of past users decay moderately quickly the optimal strategy is cyclic hence not only do we find that those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it but also that for those who forget the past and over value the present it may even be optimal to have their future recreate the past these findings are illustrated by numerical analysis based on empirical data from the current us cocaine epidemic

the impact of the regulation of the cable television industry the effect on quality adjusted cable television prices between the mid 1980s and early 1990s cable television rates increased substantially simple price comparisons over the regulated and deregulated eras are difficult as the programming changed simultaneously using a modified hedonic framework to allow for the lack of competition on the supply side of the industry this paper imputes the price for regulation era cable packages using consumers estimated willingness to pay for individual satellite networks during the unregulated period then a quality adjusted price for the cable package offered in 1985 is estimated on average regulation benefited consumers by keeping prices below monopolist s profit maximizing price

examining the link between carbon dioxide emissions and the share of industry in gdp modeling and testing for the g 7 countries abstract in this paper the relationship between per capita co 2 emissions and the share of industrial value added in gross domestic product gdp for the g 7 countries is discussed using a novel approach it is assumed that per capita co 2 emissions are correspondent to the share of industrial value added in gdp a model is developed using hidden markov process to search this initial assumption in the model the data for industrial share in gdp are assigned to be the observations while the data for per capita co 2 emissions represent the hidden process which may be then predicted using the ratio of industrial value added to gdp the data set covers the period from 1970 to 2008 and the model is tested for the g 7 countries the study findings show that except in the case of canada the hidden markov model performs reasonably well in tracking per capita co 2 emissions the study results provide also a basis for a number of policy implications

the role of retailer s performance in optimal wholesale price discount policies abstract the main goal of this paper is to model the effects of wholesale price control on manufacturer s profit taking explicitly into account the retailer s sales motivation and performance we consider a stylized distribution channel where a manufacturer sells a single kind of good to a single retailer wholesale price discounts are assumed to increase the retailer s motivation thus improving sales we study the manufacturer s profit maximization problem as an optimal control model where the manufacturer s control is the discount on wholesale price and retailer s motivation is one of the state variables in particular in the paper we prove that an increasing discount policy is optimal for the manufacturer when the retailer is not efficient while efficient retailers may require to decrease the trade discounts at the end of the selling period computational experiments point out how the discount on wholesale price passed by the retailer to the market pass through influences the optimal profit of the manufacturer

inverted u aggregate investment curves in a dynamic game of advertising abstract we revisit the relationship between market power and firms investment incentives in a noncooperative differential oligopoly game where firms sell differentiated goods and invest in advertising to increase the brand equity of their respective goods the feedback equilibrium obtains under open loop rules and aggregate expenditure on goodwill takes an inverted u shape under both cournot and bertrand behaviour provided product differentiation is sufficiently high total industry expenditure is higher under cournot competition

learning and forgetting modeling optimal product sampling over time firms use samples to increase the sales of almost all consumable goods including food health and cleaning products despite its importance sampling remains one of the most under researched areas there are no theoretical quantitative models of sampling behavior other than the pioneering work of jain et al 1995 who modeled sampling as an important factor in the diffusion of new products in this paper we characterize sampling as having two effects the first is the change in the probability of a consumer purchasing a product immediately after having sampled the product the second is an increase in the consumer s cumulative goodwill formation which results from sampling the product this distinction differentiates our model from other models of goodwill in which firm sales are only a function of the existing goodwill level we determine the optimal dynamic sampling effort of a firm and examine the factors that affect the sampling decision we find that although the sampling effort will decline over a product s life cycle it may continue in mature products another finding is that when we have a positive change in the factors that increase sampling productivity steady state goodwill stock and sales will increase but equilibrium sampling can either increase or decrease the change in the sampling level is indeterminate because while increased sampling productivity means that firms have incentives to increase sampling the increase in the equilibrium goodwill level indirectly reduces the marginal productivity of sampling thus reducing the incentives to sample we discuss managerial implications and how the model can be used to address various circumstances

innovation diffusion uncertainty advertising and pricing policies we develop and analyze a normative and structurally stochastic model of innovation diffusion by depicting the market at an aggregate level model dynamics are defined through the flow pattern of individuals that move from the innovation unaware stage to the innovation aware and ultimately to the adopter stages the stochastic evolution of this stage wise transition unfolds according to tractable stochastic processes and is influenced by such factors as price word of mouth and advertisement efforts in this environment techniques of contingent claims analysis and stochastic control theory are employed to obtain optimal pricing or advertising policies that maximize the value of the innovation to account for their optimal adjustment over time these policies are modeled as positive real valued adapted processes given this setting policy adjustments over time i e advertising or pricing are viewed as a value additive sequence of nested real options we present closed form analytic results regarding the optimal policies simulations provide a numeric insight to the models behavior

energy consumption and gdp in tunisia cointegration and causality analysis abstract in this paper the johansen cointegration technique is used to examine the causal relationship between per capita energy consumption pcec and per capita gross domestic product pcgdp for tunisia during the 1971 2004 period in order to test for granger causality in the presence of cointegration among the variables a vector error correction model vecm is used instead of a vector autoregressive var model our estimation results indicate that the pcgdp and pcec for tunisia are related by one cointegrating vector and that there is a long run bi directional causal relationship between the two series and a short run unidirectional causality from energy to gross domestic product gdp the source of causation in the long run is found to be the error correction terms in both directions hence an important policy implication resulting from this analysis is that energy can be considered as a limiting factor to gdp growth in tunisia conclusions for tunisia may also be relevant for a number of countries that have to go through a similar development path of increasing pressure on already scarce energy resources

collusive conduct in duopolies multimarket contact and cross ownership in the mobile telephone industry the deregulation of the telecommunications industry has resulted in a variety of industry structures which have been created in hopes of increasing competition one example is the licensing of cellular telephone services in the united states where the fcc created duopolies in which two firms were granted licenses to compete in strictly defined product and geographic markets taking advantage of the unique regulatory environment we test to what degree duopolistic competition leads to competitive market outcomes we find that cross ownership and multimarket contact are important factors in explaining non competitive prices

the causality between energy consumption and economic growth in turkey abstract this paper applies the causality test to examine the causal relationship between primary energy consumption ec and real gross national product gnp for turkey during 1970 2006 we employ unit root tests the augmented dickey fuller adf and the philips perron pp johansen cointegration test and pair wise granger causality test to examine relation between ec and gnp our empirical results indicate that the two series are found to be non stationary however first differences of these series lead to stationarity further the results indicate that ec and gnp are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from ec to gnp and vice versa this means that an increase in ec directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further ec this bidirectional causality relationship between ec and gnp determined for turkey at 1970 2006 period is in accordance with the ones in literature reported for similar countries consequently we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in turkey and hence shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth

causality between energy consumption and economic growth in india a note on conflicting results abstract this note examines the different direction of causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth in india applying engle granger cointegration approach combined with the standard granger causality test on indian data for the period 1950 1996 we find that bi directional causality exists between energy consumption and economic growth further we apply johansen multivariate cointegration technique on the different set of variables the same direction of causality exists between energy consumption and economic growth this is different from the results obtained in earlier studies

optimal pricing and advertising policies for an entertainment event abstract the paper suggests an optimal control model to determine optimal pricing and advertising policies for a one time entertainment event there are two periods an initial period of regular price sales and a terminal period of last minute sales at a possibly reduced price the price in a period is constant over time in the initial period the organizers of the event advertise the event to potential attendees if tickets are sold out by the end of the first period there will be no last minute sales we find that advertising should be decreased over time during the first period there are three different advertising scenarios it may be optimal not to advertise at all to advertise at a positive rate until the end of the first period or to stop advertising at an earlier instant of time in the last minute sales the organizers implement a feedback pricing policy such that the selected price depends on the number of tickets that have been sold in the regular sales period finally we establish optimality conditions for the time instant where to switch to last minute sales

diffusion of innovations under supply constraints in this paper we present a canonical setting that illustrates the need for explicitly modeling interactions between manufacturing and marketing sales decisions in a firm we consider a firm that sells an innovative product with a given market potential the firm may not be able to meet demand due to capacity constraints for such firms we present a new model of demand modified from the original model of bass to capture the effect of unmet past demand on future demand we use this model to find production and sales plans that maximize profit during the lifetime of the product in a firm with a fixed production capacity we conduct an extensive numerical study to establish that the trivial myopic sales plan that sells the maximal amount possible at each time instant is not necessarily optimal we show that a heuristic build up policy in which the firm does not sell at all for a period of time and builds up enough inventory to never lose sales once it begins selling is a robust approximation to the optimal policy specializing to a lost sales setting we prove that the optimal sales plan is indeed of the build up type we explicitly characterize the optimal build up period and analytically derive the optimal initial inventory and roll out delay finally we show that the insights obtained in the fixed capacity case continue to hold when the firm is able to dynamically change capacity

economic growth and energy consumption revisited evidence from linear and nonlinear granger causality the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is considered as an imperative issue in energy economics previous studies have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks in this study both linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are applied to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a sample of asian newly industrialized countries as well as the u s this study finds evidence supporting a neutrality hypothesis for the united states thailand and south korea however empirical evidence on philippines and singapore reveals a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption while energy consumption may have affected economic growth for taiwan hong kong malaysia and indonesia policy implications are also discussed

stochastic optimal budget decision for advertising considering uncertain sales responses abstract firms are faced with uncertain sales responses even though they advertise appropriately to help marketing managers make optimal budget decisions in this situation we develop a stochastic model depicting the problem of advertising budget decision as a special markov decision process where a new objective maximizing expected market utility is proposed in the model we introduce a two dimension state variable including accumulative sales which vary randomly with advertising budget and the predicted probability that an advertising campaign obtains a full sales response we make an analysis of the model on the premise of growing infinite market potential deriving the property of optimal policies and that of optimal value function these results are successfully used to make advertising budget decisions for a private university in xi an china

modeling the impact of product quality on dynamic pricing and advertising policies abstract the marketing mix of price quality and advertising quality relationship is well studied less understood is the price advertising quality relationship this article fills the gap investigating the interplay between price advertising and quality in an optimal control model our results generalize the condition of dorfman steiner in a dynamic context also they point to the impact of greater product quality on the dynamic policies of pricing and advertising furthermore a phase diagram analysis shows that quality develops monotonically in time and converges to a unique steady state we also show that quality investment could either decrease or increase over time but this depends on its effectiveness our results spot the profitable opportunities of a firm managing a more complex marketing mix

energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth in china abstract this paper investigates the existence and direction of granger causality between economic growth energy consumption and carbon emissions in china applying a multivariate model of economic growth energy use carbon emissions capital and urban population empirical results for china over the period 1960 2007 suggest a unidirectional granger causality running from gdp to energy consumption and a unidirectional granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth therefore the government of china can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth

planning media schedules in the presence of dynamic advertising quality a key task of advertising media planners is to determine the best media schedule of advertising exposures for a certainbudget conceptually the planner could choose to do continuous advertising i e schedule ad exposures evenly overall weeks or follow a strategy of pulsing i e advertise in some weeks of the year and not at other times previous theoretical analyses have shown that continuous advertising is optimal for nearly all situations however pulsing schedules are very common in practice either the pract ice of pulsing is inappropriate or extant models have not adequately conceptualized the effects of advertising spending over time this paper offers a model that shows pulsing strategies can generate greater total awareness than the continuous advertising when the effectiveness of advertisement i e adquality varies overtime specifically ad quality declines because of advertising wearout during periods of continuous advertising and it restores due to forgetting effects during periods of no advertising such dynamics make it worth while for advertisers to stop advertising when ad quality becomes very low and wait for ad quality to restore beforestarting the next burst again as is common in practice based on the extensive behavioral research on advertising repetition and advertising wearout we extend the classical nerlove and arrow 1962 model by incorporating the notions of repetition wearout copy wearout and ad quality restoration repetition wearout is a result of excessive frequency beca use ad viewers perceive that there is nothing new to be gained from processing the ad they withdraw their attention or they become unmotivated to react to advertising information copy wearout refers to the decline inad quality due to passage of time independent of the level of frequency ad quality restoration is the enhancement of ad quality during media hiatus as a consequence of viewers forgetting the details of the advertised messages thus making ads appear like new when reintroduced later the proposed model has the property that when wearout effects are present a strategy of pulsing is superior to continuous advertising even when the advertising response function is concave this is illustrated by a numerical example that compares the total awareness generated by a single concentrated pulse of varying duration blitz schedules and continuous advertising the even schedule this property can be explained by the tension between the pressure to spend the fixed media budget quickly to avoid copy wearout and the opposing pressure to spread out the media spending over time to mitigate repetition wearout the proposed model is empirically tested by using brand level data from two advertising awareness tracking studies that also include the actual spen ding schedules the first data set is for a major cereal brand while the other is for a brand of milk chocolate such advertising tracking studies are now a common and popular means for evaluating advertising effectiveness in many markets e g millward brown narketmind in the empirical tests the model parameters are estimated by using the kalman filter procedure which is eminently suited for dynamic models because it attends to the intertemporal dependencies in awareness build up and decay via the use of conditional densities the estimated parameters are statistically significant have the expected signs and are meaningful from both theoretical and managerial viewpoints the proposed model fits both the data sets rather well and better than several well known advertising models namely the vidale wolfe brandaid litmus and trackermodels but not decisively better than the nerlove arrow model however unlike the nerlove arrow model the proposed model yields different total awareness for different strategies of spending the same fixed budget thus allowing media planners to discriminate among several media schedules given the empirical support for the model the paper presents an implementable approach for utilizing it to evaluate large numbers of alternative media schedules and determine the best set of media schedules for consideration in media planning this approach is based on an algorithm that combines a genetic algorithm with the kalman filter procedure the paper presents the results of applying this approach in the case studies of the cereal and milk chocolate brands the form of the best advertising spending strategies in each case was a pulsing strategy and there were many schedules that were an improvement over the media schedule actually used in each campaign

environmental policy when pollutive consumption is sensitive to advertising norms versus status a theoretical model is developed to analyse optimal environmental policy when consumer preferences are endogenous it captures that pollutive consumption is sensitive to consumption by others and commercial advertising this is conceptualized through a consumption norm an increase in this norm means that consumers will become dissatisfied with a given consumption level and try to raise it which will cause an increase in pollution the model is particularly relevant for the study of conspicuous consumption which generally is subject to concentrated advertising efforts while it generates considerable pollution the model can accommodate the cases of an externality created by advertising being positive or negative we also show that using different functional specifications for the norm function one can address either conformity or status seeking we derive optimal rules for a pollution tax a subsidy or tax on advertising and information provision by the government the results not only contribute to more realism in environmental policy theory but also extend public policy with new instruments

recent developments in dynamic advertising research a variety of continuous time differential functions have been developed to investigate dynamic advertising problems in business and economics fields since major dynamic models appearing before 1995 have been reviewed by a few survey papers we provide a comprehensive review of the dynamic advertising models published after 1995 which are classified into six categories i nerlove arrow model and its extensions ii vidale wolfe model and its extensions iii lanchester model and its extensions iv the diffusion models v dynamic advertising competition models with other attributes and vi empirical studies for dynamic advertising problems for each category we first briefly summarize major relevant before 1995 models and then discuss major after 1995 models in details we find that the dynamic models reviewed in this paper have been extensively used to analyze various advertising problems in the monopoly duopoly oligopoly and supply chain systems our review reveals that the diffusion models have not been used to analyze advertising problems in supply chain operations which may be a research direction in the future moreover we learn from our review that very few publications regarding dynamic advertising problems have considered the supply chain competition we also find that very few researchers have used the diffusion model to investigate the dynamic advertising problems with product quality as a decision variable and the pricing decision has not been incorporated into any extant lanchester model the paper ends with a summary of our review and suggestions on possible research directions in the future

energy consumption and gdp in turkey is there a co integration relationship energy consumption and gdp are expected to grow by 5 9 and 7 annually until 2025 in turkey this paper tries to unfold the linkage between energy consumption and gdp by undertaking a co integration analysis for turkey with annual data over the period 1970 2003 the analysis shows that energy consumption and gdp are co integrated this means that there is a possibly bi directional causality relationship between the two we establish that there is a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption indicating that energy saving would not harm economic growth in turkey in addition we find that energy consumption keeps on growing as long as the economy grows in turkey

controlling measurement errors in models of advertising competition abstract commercial market research firms provide information on advertising variables of interest such as brand awareness or gross rating points that are likely to contain measurement errors this unreliability of measured variables induces bias in the estimated parameters of dynamic models of advertising consequently advertisers either under or overspend on advertising to maintain a desired level of brand awareness monte carlo studies show that the magnitude of bias can be serious when conventional estimation methods such as ordinary least squares and errors in variables are employed to obtain parameter estimates therefore the authors have developed two new approaches that either reduce or eliminate parameter bias using these methods advertisers can determine an unbiased optimal advertising budget even if advertising variables are measured with error the application of these methods to estimate the extent of measurement noise in empirical advertising data is illustrated

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from 11 sub sahara african countries abstract the paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for eleven countries in sub saharan africa using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds test the study finds that energy consumption is cointegrated with economic growth in cameroon cote d ivoire gambia ghana senegal sudan and zimbabwe moreover this test suggests that energy consumption has a significant positive long run impact on economic growth in ghana kenya senegal and sudan granger causality test based on vector error correction model vecm shows bi directional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for gambia ghana and senegal however granger causality test shows that economic growth granger causes energy consumption in sudan and zimbabwe the neutrality hypothesis is confirmed in respect of cameroon and cote d ivoire the same result of no causality was found for nigeria kenya and togo the result shows that each country should formulate appropriate energy conservation policies taking into cognizance of her peculiar condition

on the instability of the r d portfolio in a dynamic monopoly or one cannot get two eggs in one basket abstract firms innovation portfolios include several dimensions ranging from organizational aspects to cost reduction and product characteristics all of these efforts take place during the product life cycle and interact with each other in determining the spectrum of features of the product and its performance on the market this paper contributes to the related theoretical debate focussing on the possibility of having superior product quality levels at lower marginal production cost over time to deal with this issue we investigate the optimal r d portfolio of a single product monopolist investing in cost reducing activities accompanied by efforts improving the quality of its product over an infinite time horizon it turns out that the firm s relative incentives along the two directions are conditional upon market affluence measured by consumers willingness to pay for quality and r d efforts are complements in the neighbourhood of the steady state equilibrium however the dynamics of the two r d controls depend on both quality and marginal cost at every instant consequently as the stability analysis reveals the steady state equilibrium is indeed unstable due to the dynamics of marginal cost thereby implying that one should not expect the firm to supply an increasing quality level at a decreasing production cost hence the dynamic interplay between r d controls and the resulting instability affecting production costs also imply that one may not expect to observe product quality to increase and market price to decrease over the product life cycle

a duopolistic model of dynamic competitive advertising abstract this paper proposes a differential game model of competitive advertising decisions for non durable products by extending the lanchester model and the deal model of competitive advertising in the literature the proposed model is compared empirically with the lanchester model for model fitting and forecast accuracy it is shown that the model is suitable for an actual market and out performs the lanchester model in forecast accuracy the model provides a sensible modeling alternative to the lanchester model for the study of dynamic competitive advertising decisions necessary and sufficient conditions for open loop and closed loop nash equilibrium solutions to the model are discussed a numerical algorithm for open loop and closed loop nash strategies to the model is developed

the shape of advertising response functions revisited a model of dynamic probabilistic thresholds prior work in marketing has suggested that advertising threshold effects levels beneath which there is essentially no sales response are rarely encountered in practice because advertising policies settle into effective ranges through early trial and error thresholds cannot be observed directly and arguments for their existence must be based primarily on a statistical footprint that is on relative fits of a range of model types to detect possible threshold effects we formulate a switching regression model with two regimes in only one of which advertising is effective mediating the switch between the two regimes is a logistic function of category specific dynamic variables e g order of entry time in market number of competitors and advertising levels nesting a variety of alternative formulations among them both standard concave and s shaped responses a sequence of comparisons among parametrically related models strongly suggests that threshold effects exist that market share response to advertising is not necessarily globally concave that superior fit cannot be attributed to model flexibility alone and that dynamic environmental competitive and brand specific factors can influence advertising effectiveness these effects are evident in two evolving durables categories suvs and minivans although not in the one mature nondurable category liquid detergent studied

dynamic optimal control models in advertising recent developments this paper presents a review of recent developments that have taken place in the area of dynamic optimal control models in advertising subsequent to the comprehensive survey of the literature by sethi in 1977 the basic problem underlying these models is that of determining optimal advertising expenditures and possibly other variables of interest over time for a firm or a group of competing firms under consideration this optimization is done subject to some dynamics that define how these variables translate into sales and in turn into profits the purpose of this update is twofold on the one hand new contributions in the areas already treated in the earlier survey are reviewed on the other hand new trends in the advertising literature since 1977 such as quality as an additional marketing instrument cumulative sales models pulsing advertising and advertising as a part of corporate models of the firm are discussed the models covered in this update are organized under six headings models with ca

latent homophily or social influence an empirical analysis of purchase within a social network consumers who are close to one another in a social network often make similar purchase decisions this similarity can result from latent homophily or social influence as well as common exogenous factors latent homophily means consumers who are connected to one another are likely to have similar characteristics and product preferences social influence refers to the ability of one consumer to directly influence another consumer s decision based upon their communication we present an empirical study of purchases of caller ring back tones using data from an asian mobile network that predicts consumers purchase timing and choice decisions we simultaneously measure latent homophily and social influence while also accounting for exogenous factors identification is achieved due to our dynamic panel data structure and the availability of detailed communication data we find strong influence effects and latent homophily effects in both the purchase timing and product choice decisions of consumers this paper was accepted by sandra slaughter information systems

channel redistribution with direct selling abstract it seems nowadays that a company can be considered either a pure direct such as amazon com and dell computers or an adopted direct like barnes and noble for example an adopted direct company s decision to directly sell on line has become a fashionable choice but the results of such choice differ drastically glorious success mixed with pathetic failure one of the pending issues has been the channel redistribution strategy as whether to entirely switch to direct sell or to maintain a combination of both in this paper we develop a dynamic channel diffusion model and analyze how the sales will redistribute between the two channels in a given time variant marketplace this paper provides two major contributions first we obtain the existence of a steady state redistribution between the two channels and the necessary conditions for this existence second we establish measures of industry specific suitability for on line business operations in short our results concur with the theory it changes the way of doing business but does not change the business itself

the effects of market structure and ownership on prices and service offerings in the cable television industry this article provides empirical evidence on the effects of alternative market structures and ownership modes on prices and service offerings in the cable television industry we analyze the underlying characteristics and behavior of competing versus monopoly operators on the one hand and privately versus nonprivately owned operators on the other we find that competition and nonprivate ownership are associated with lower prices for basic cable television service we also find that cable television price and quality differentials vary with certain characteristics of competing operators and that market structure and ownership status influence changes in price and quality over time

a novel bass type model for product life cycle quantification using aggregate market data abstract product life cycle plc is a widely accepted concept that has been given significant attention in operations management and marketing literature however its quantification remains a major challenge this study aims to develop a unique and original analytical model for quantifying plcs using aggregate market data the bass diffusion model is used to forecast consumers first purchases of the product next the novelty loyalty based consumer utility nlbcu theory which has a confirmed neuropsychological basis is used to model repeat or replacement purchases the unique contribution of this work is that it synthesizes the prevailing innovation diffusion theory and the nlbcu theory to provide a distinct dynamic and endogenous perspective on consumer purchasing behavior across the entire plc the model s advantages include its simple mathematical formulation its minimal use of data and its harmony with the predominating ideas of the innovation diffusion literature through simulation studies and empirical investigations the descriptive power and data fitting performance of the model are demonstrated

fragmented duopoly a conceptual and empirical investigation where wireline distribution networks compete each network typically has some customers over which it competes and others for which it is the sole provider this paper conceptually and empirically assesses the effects of such competition on market prices demand and service quality for cable television service the results suggest that the effectiveness of competition in lowering prices is contingent on the degree of system overlap in particular in equilibrium an increase in overlap substantially reduces prices the conceptual model of fragmented duopoly developed in the paper may be useful in analyzing emerging competition in other network distribution industries

energy consumption and gdp revisited a panel analysis of developed and developing countries this paper applies a new panel data stationarity testing procedure first developed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 econometrics journal 8 159 175 with panel vars that employ the generalized method of moment techniques in order to re investigate the dynamic interactions between energy consumption per capita lec and real gdp per capita lry in 22 developed and 18 developing countries when multiple breaks in the series are taken into account there is convincing evidence of panel stationarity for lec and lry in both groups the energy crises evidently had a substantive impact on both lec and lry in all sample countries furthermore our panel vars attest to bidirectional causality between lec and lry in developed countries but there is uni directional causality from lry to lec in developing countries finally from the orthogonalized impulse response functions all of the variables in the panel vars have a positive effect on each other but their impact is greater and more persistent in developing countries some important policy implications do emerge

fighting city hall entry deterrence and technology upgrades in cable tv markets this article investigates how private firms respond to potential entry from public firms this paper uses a data set of over 3 000 u s cable tv systems to present evidence consistent with entry deterrence incumbent cable tv firms upgrade faster when located in markets with a potential municipal entrant however the same systems are then slower to offer new products enabled by the upgrade suggesting upgrades in these markets occur for strategic reasons incumbent cable systems also upgrade faster in response to municipal entry threats than to private entry threats understanding how private firms respond to potential entry from public firms is especially important in light of recent u s government entry into several industries this paper was accepted by bruno cassiman business strategy

dynamic advertising and pricing with constant demand elasticities in this paper we analyze a stochastic dynamic advertising and pricing model with isoelastic demand the state space is discrete time is continuous and the planing horizon is allowed to be finite or infinite a dynamic version of the dorfman steiner identity will be derived explicit expressions of the optimal advertising and pricing policies of the value function and of the optimal advertising expenditures will be given the general results will be used to analyze the case of impatient customers furthermore particular time inhomogeneous models and homogeneous ones with and without discounting will be examined we will study the social efficiency of a monopolist s optimal policies and the consequences of specific subsidies from a buyer s perspective our analysis reveals that waiting when looking at immediate expected prices is never profitable should two or more units be available but we will also prove that the sequence of average sales prices is monotone decreasing moreover the techniques applied to solve the discrete stochastic advertising and pricing problem will be used to solve a related deterministic control problem with continuous state space

measuring marketing mix effects in the 32 64 bit video game console market we investigate the short and long run effects of prices and software availability on the category level diffusion of 32 64 bit video game consoles in the usa we adopt an estimation framework that allows for a flexible intrinsic growth pattern for the hardware consoles and uses instrumental variables to control for the potential endogeneity of prices we find significant long term effects of prices and software availability on sales we find that using a non parametric hazard specification is important imposing parametric forms results in elasticities that are up to 30 smaller we use these results to derive implications for marketing policies over the life cycle of the industry copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

energy consumption and economic growth the experience of african countries revisited abstract the aim of this paper is to re examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for seventeen african countries in a multivariate framework by including labor and capital as additional variables we apply the variance decomposition analysis due to pesaran and shin pesaran m h and shin y generalised impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models economics letters 1998 58 17 29 to evaluate how important is the causal impact of energy consumption on economic growth relative to labor and capital the results of our multivariate modified granger causality analysis due to toda and yamamoto toda h y and yamamoto t statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process journal of econometrics 1995 66 225 250 tend to reject the neutrality hypothesis for the energy income relationship in fifteen out of the seventeen countries in contrast results of our variance decomposition analyses show that in eleven out of the seventeen countries energy is no more than a contributing factor to output growth and not an important one when compared to capital and labor labor and capital are the most important factors in output growth in fifteen out of the seventeen countries however these results should be interpreted with care as they may not be sufficiently robust enough to support the inference that energy consumption plays a minor role in the economic growth of african countries

an empirical study on the lanchester model of combat for competitive advertising decisions this paper presents an empirical study on the lanchester model of combat for competitive advertising decisions three issues are evaluated i the specification of the market share response model ii the effect of inflation on the estimation of the response model and iii the performance of competitive strategies it is shown that a the square root function that is used in previous studies is often inappropriate to characterize the market share response model b market share variations are more responsive to current advertising expenditures c closed loop nash equilibrium strategies are better competitive advertising strategies for firms to maximize profits than open loop nash equilibrium strategies and d finally general perfect equilibria nash equilibrium strategies developed by case are usually not good competitive advertising strategies for firms to maximize profits

how much have electricity shortages hampered china s gdp growth abstract based on an econometric analysis of the annual growth data for china s gdp and electricity generation from 1953 to 2010 we find that electricity generation growth granger causes gdp growth but not vice versa we also find that the gdp elasticity of electricity generation is about 0 6 implying that a 1 increase in china s electricity generation growth would increase gdp growth by 0 6 while deng s reform raised china s gdp growth rate by about 5 per year it did not alter the gdp elasticity of electricity generation hence an obvious strategy to promote china s economic growth would be accelerating electricity generation expansion rapidly adding thermal generation units however could have large scale adverse environmental impacts we therefore support china s 2011 five year plan which calls for expanding investments in renewable energy conservation and energy efficiency as well as improving china s integrated electricity planning and cost based pricing decisions

the energy growth nexus in thailand does trade openness boost up energy consumption the nexus between trade openness and energy demand is hot topic of discussion among academicians and researchers and numerous studies are available in existing literature while investigating the nexus between trade openness and energy demand this paper explores the relationship between energy consumption trade openness and economic growth in case of thailand in doing so we have applied bayer and hanck cointegration approach to test whether the long run relationship exists between the variables our results confirm the presence of cointegration between the variables energy consumption stimulates economic growth trade openness adds in economic growth the causality analysis reveals that energy consumption granger causes economic growth and in resulting economic growth granger causes energy consumption trade openness and energy consumption are interdependent i e trade openness granger causes energy consumption and in return energy consumption granger causes trade openness this paper openness up new directions for policy making authorities in thailand to design a comprehensive energy and trade policies to sustain economic growth for long run

risk sensitive dynamic market share attraction games we present partial results showing that risk sensitive oligopolists would spend less on advertising than would their risk neutral counterparts the model is an infinite horizon stochastic game in which each firm s goodwill is a random function of both its own and its competitors current and past advertising expenditures single period firm profits have a market share attraction form each firm seeks to maximize its expected exponential utility of the sum of discounted profits we analyze the impact that risk sensitivity and other parameters have on equilibrium advertising strategies by exploiting the special structure of the stochastic game model journal of economic literatureclassification number c73