optimizing the level of renewable electric r d expenditures using real options analysis abstract one of the primary objectives of the united states federal non hydro renewable electric r d program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies in order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric r d this paper uses real option pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices within the real options analysis framework the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies net of federal r d expenditures is estimated to be 30 6 billion of this value 86 can be attributed to past federal r d efforts and 14 can be attributed to future federal r d efforts assuming continued federal r d funding at 300 million yr in addition real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future r d funding levels increase this indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric r d funding is sub optimal

computable general equilibrium models adjustment and the poor in africa abstract sahn and others at cornell have conducted a major research program on the impact of adjustment policies on the poor in africa making use of computable general equilibrium cge models their work was summarized in world development april 1996 they concluded that adjustment policies have not hurt and may have helped the poor this paper shows that such conclusions are highly dependent on the assumptions made about parameters relationships and closure in the models moreover in madagascar and tanzania where the cornell models suggest the poor benefited from adjustment there is evidence of worsening social and economic indicators our conclusion is that the cornell results are more a reflection of the assumptions made in developing the cge models than of reality

are chinese cities too small this paper models and estimates net urban agglomeration economies for cities economic models of cities postulate an inverted u shape of real income per worker against city employment where the inverted u shifts with industrial composition across the urban hierarchy of cities this relationship has never been estimated in part because of data requirements china has the necessary data and context we find that urban agglomeration benefits are high real incomes per worker rise sharply with increases in city size from a low level they level out nearer the peak and then decline very slowly past the peak we find that a large fraction of cities in china are undersized due to nationally imposed strong migration restrictions resulting in large income losses

beyond optimal city size an evaluation of alternative urban growth patterns the aim of the paper is to present a critical view of theoretical works on city size we begin with the consideration that during the 1960s and 1970s the question of optimal city size tended to b

optimal urban population size national vs local economic efficiency this paper explores whether the population size of the seoul metropolitan area sma in korea is efficient in terms of the national economy to undertake this analysis a recursively dynamic interregional computable general equilibrium icge model with a population module is developed in this model the explicit costs and benefits of population growth are estimated by using the industrial value added and consumer price inflation functions for each region the counter factual analysis shows that national population decentralisation away from the sma is desirable for korea s economic growth korea s gdp is estimated to be maximised when the sma s national population share is at 39 per cent in the short term and 35 per cent in the long term however the sma government is likely to have incentive to maintain its population at around 40 per cent of the national population where per capita income at the regional not national level is maximised

economic growth in a cross section of cities abstract we examine the relationship between urban characteristics in 1960 and urban growth between 1960 and 1990 income and population growth move together and both types of growth are 1 positively related to initial schooling 2 negatively related to initial unemployment and 3 negatively related to the initial share of employment in manufacturing racial composition and segregation are uncorrelated with urban growth across all cities but in cities with large nonwhite communities segregation is positively correlated with population growth government expenditures except for sanitation are uncorrelated with growth government debt is positively correlated with later growth

variable capital utilization and international business cycles this paper develops a two country international business cycle model with variable capital utilization using a standard depreciation in use technology variable capital utilization significantly reduces the required size of productivity shocks needed to replicate observed output volatility by 20 40 further the model generates positive comovement across countries in wages hours and investment while preserving empirically accurate predictions regarding the relative cross country correlations of output and consumption and the countercyclical behavior of net exports finally accounting for variable capital utilization reduces cross country correlation of true productivity shocks relative to that of the standard solow residual

sorting it out international trade with heterogeneous workers each worker brings a bundle of skills to the workplace for example quantitative and communication skills since employers must take this bundle as a package deal they choose workers with just the right mix of skills we show that international differences in the distribution of worker skill bundles for example japan s abundance of workers with a modest mix of both quantitative and teamwork skills have important implications for international trade industrial structure and domestic income distribution formally we model two dimensional worker heterogeneity and show that the second moments of the distribution of skills are critical as in the roy model

gibrat s law for all cities two empirical regularities concerning the size distribution of cities have repeatedly been established zipf s law holds the upper tail is pareto and city growth is proportionate census 2000 data are used covering the entire size distribution not just the upper tail the nontruncated distribution is shown to be lognormal rather than pareto this provides a simple justification for the coexistence of proportionate growth and the resulting lognormal distribution an equilibrium theory of local externalities that can explain the empirical size distribution of cities is proposed the driving force is a random productivity process of local economies and the perfect mobility of workers

variable capacity utilization ambient temperature shocks and generation asset valuation this paper discusses generation asset valuation in a framework where capital utilization decisions are endogenous we use real options approach for valuation of natural gas fueled turbines capital utilization choices that we explore include turning on off the unit operating the unit at increased firing temperatures overfiring and conducting preventive maintenance overfiring provides capacity enhancement which comes at the expense of reduced maintenance interval and increased costs of part replacement we consider the costs and benefits of overfiring in attempt to maximize the asset value by optimally exercising the overfire option in addition to stochastic processes governing prices we incorporate an exogenous productivity shock ambient temperature we consider how variation in ambient temperature affects the asset value through its effect on gas turbine s productivity

interruptible electricity contracts from an electricity retailer s point of view valuation and optimal interruption we consider interruptible electricity contracts issued by an electricity retailer that allow for interruptions to electric service in exchange for either an overall reduction in the price of electricity delivered or for financial compensation at the time of interruption we provide a structural model to determine electricity prices based on stochastic models of supply and demand we use stochastic dynamic programming to value interruptible contracts from the point of view of an electricity retailer and describe the optimal interruption strategy we also demonstrate that structural models can be used to value contracts in competitive markets our numerical results indicate that in a deregulated market interruptible contracts can help alleviate supply problems associated with spikes of price and demand and that competition between retailers results in lower value and less frequent interruption

trade and protection with multistage production this paper analyses trade in manuf acutured goods that are produced via a vertical production structure with many stages where some value is added at each to an intermediate product to yield a good in process ready for the next stage we consider the stage at which a good is traded to be an economically endogenous variable with comparative advantage determining the pattern of production specialization by stages across countries we study how endowment changes and policy shifts move the margin of comparative advantage which thus provides a channel for resource allocation adjustment that is additional to the usual ones of factor substitution and changes in the quantity of output

inequality and convergence in europe s regions reconsidering european regional policies europe s regions income disparities and regional policies in this paper we take a critical look at current european regional policies first we document the motivation for such policies that is the large income disparities across the regions of the eu15 large disparities are certainly present second we illustrate the various instruments adopted and discuss their underpinnings in established economic theories next we look at available data searching for three kinds of evidence 1 if disparities are either growing or decreasing we conclude they are neither 2 which are the major factors explaining such disparities and in particular if they are the factors predicted by the economic models adopted by the commission to justify current policies we conclude this is most certainly not the case 3 if there are clear signs that eu policies as opposed to other social and economic factors are actually reducing such disparities we cannot find any clear sign of such desired impact our conclusion is that regional and structural policies serve mostly a redistributional purpose motivated by the nature of the political equilibria upon which the european union is built they have little relationship with fostering economic growth this casts a serious doubt on their social value and furthermore strongly questions extending such policies to future members of the european union a successful eu enlargement in our view calls for an immediate and drastic revision of regional economic policies michele boldrin and fabio canova

zipf s law for cities an explanation zipf s law is a very tight constraint on the class of admissible models of local growth it says that for most countries the size distribution of cities strikingly fits a power law the number of cities with populations greater than s is proportional to 1 s suppose that at least in the upper tail all cities follow some proportional growth process this appears to be verified empirically this automatically leads their distribution to converge to zipf s law

short term generation asset valuation a real options approach this paper discusses using real options to value power plants with unit commitment constraints over a short term period we formulate the problem as a multistage stochastic problem and propose a solution procedure that integrates forward moving monte carlo simulation with backward moving dynamic programming we assume that the power plant operator maximizes expected profit by deciding in each hour whether or not to run the unit that a certain lead time for commitment and decommitment decisions is necessary to start up and shut down a unit and that these commitment decisions once made are subject to physical constraints such as minimum uptime and downtime we also account for the costs associated with starting up and shutting down a unit last we assume that there are hourly markets for both electricity and the fuel used by the generator and that their prices follow ito processes using numerical simulation we show that failure to consider physical constraints may significantly overvalue a power plant

the optimal size distribution of cities abstract properties of the optimal size distribution of cities are derived by using the hierarchy model explicitly considering the productivity of cities properties are i in allocating workers to the same industry in cities with different hierarchies it is optimal to allocate so that marginal effects upon the gnp are the same ii in allocating workers to different industries in the same city it is optimal to allocate so that the direct marginal effects upon that city s grp are the same iii at optimum all hierarchies have the same weight in a national economy based upon these properties an optimality index for the size distribution of cities is constructed values of this optimality index are estimated for u s and korea the construction and estimation of an optimality index make it possible to investigate the degree and major sources of departures from the optimum

a sorted tale of globalization white collar jobs and the rise of service offshoring abstract we study how the rise of unaffiliated trade in services with china and india has impacted u s labour markets the topic has two understudied aspects it deals with service trade most studies deal with manufacturing trade and it examines the historical first of u s workers competing with educated but low wage foreign workers our empirical agenda is made complicated by the endogeneity of service imports and the endogenous sorting of workers across occupations to develop an estimation framework that deals with these we imbed a partial equilibrium model of trade in tasks within a general equilibrium model of occupational choice the model highlights the need to estimate labour market outcomes using changes in the outcomes of individual workers and in particular to distinguish workers who switch up from those who switch down switching down means switching to an occupation that pays less on average than the current occupation we apply these insights to matched cps data for 1996 2007 the cumulative 10 year impact of rising service imports from china and india has been as follows 1 downward occupational switching increased by 7 percentage points from 21 to 28 and upward occupational switching increased by 6 percentage points from 17 to 23 2 transitions to unemployment were imprecisely measured to have increased by half a percentage point potentially raising the white collar unemployment rate from 3 0 to 3 5 3 the earnings average across all white collar workers fell by a small 1 however for the sub population of workers who switched down or became unemployed earnings fell by 15 and 47 respectively 4 service exports had partially offsetting effects on switching and unemployment

transportation costs and international trade in the second era of globalization while the precise causes of postwar trade growth are not well understood declines in transport costs top the lists of usual suspects however there is remarkably little systematic evidence documenting the decline this paper brings to bear an eclectic mix of data in order to provide a detailed accounting of the time series pattern of shipping costs the ad valorem impact of ocean shipping costs is not much lower today than in the 1950s with technological advances largely trumped by adverse cost shocks in contrast air shipping costs have dropped an order of magnitude and airborne trade has grown rapidly as a result as a result international trade has also experienced a significant rise in speed

heterogeneous trade costs and wage inequality a model of two globalizations abstract we develop a model for analyzing the distributional effects of two globalizations and their interdependence we distinguish between two trade cost reductions i trade liberalizations in the 1980s which increased trade in low skill intensive goods denoted l globalization and ii reductions in communication costs due to the it revolution which raised trade in middle skill intensive goods during the 1990s denoted c globalization we consider a north south trade economy in which the north is skill abundant a freely traded final good is produced using high skill services and a bundle of inputs inputs differ on the intensity of middle and low skill workers required to be produced and are subject to heterogeneous trade costs in the north we find that wage inequality increases in the l globalization during the c globalization wage polarization emerges the relative wage of high to middle skill workers increases while the relative wage of middle to low skill workers is hump shaped we find a complementarity between the two globalizations wage polarization is delayed by the extent of trade in the l globalization in the south we find that wage inequality increases in both globalizations finally we show how asymmetric participation in the c globalization of two southern countries generates a discontinuous pattern of specialization the southern country participating in the c globalization specializes in the least and most skill intensive traded inputs

urban concentration agglomeration economies and the level of economic development there is a view among planners in the developing nations that the process of economic development invariably results in the concentration of population in one or two primal cities there is also however considerable disagreement over whether this apparent relationship is either necessary or desirable proponents on the one hand argue that concentrated urbanization strongly supports industrial development through the realization of scale and agglomeration economies 2 dissenters from this view feel that urban concentration creates serious social costs and results more from historical or political forces than economic ones in this case policies aimed at decentralizing growth can achieve social objectives without sacrificing economic efficiency despite these deliberations it is surprising that there has been little or no empirical study of urban concentration on either a longitudinal or cross national basis the major related work which exists is williamson s research on economic development and income inequality 3 williamson demonstrates that as economic growth begins inequality initially increases but then diminishes in the more advanced stages of development this coincides with hirschman s4 view that industrialization eventually spreads into more backward areas reduc

determination of asset prices with an investment specific technology model implications for the equity premium puzzle abstract we explore how the introduction of an investment specific technology shock and capacity utilization into the dynamic asset pricing model improves the equity premium and sharpe ratio using the method of undetermined coefficients we show approximate closed form analytical solutions for a variety of prices for financial assets our main empirical findings show that asset pricing models with an investment specific technology shock and capacity utilization perform better than a model with the standard productivity shock and adjustment costs in terms of mimicking the sharpe ratio and risk premiums of a firm s equity and long term government bonds furthermore when we introduce habit formation as a special case in our model the model improves further in terms of replicating the risk premiums of the real economy

riding the wave of urban growth in the countryside spread backwash or stagnation the advisability of an urban centered growth strategy to reap the benefits of urban agglomeration economies is much debated rural areas benefit when the growth spreads to the hinterlands especially within daily commuting distance yet in distant peripheral locations urban growth may create a backwash as households relocate to the urban center this study examines spread vs backwash as separate from long run distance from urban center trend effects using a novel canadian gis database the unique nation wide approach yields a spread and backwash rural growth topography that varies by distance from the urban center by urban population vs income growth and by size of rural community