competitive procurement of ancillary services by an independent system operator this paper discusses the competitive procurement of ancillary services by an independent system operator iso the paper assumes the existence of an underlying market for energy and explains why this energy market must be accompanied by a market for ancillary services these services include operating reserves and automatic generation control agc both of which may require generators that are infra marginal in the energy market to choose between supplying energy or ancillary services the paper discusses the design of an auction for these services that has formed the basis for the california iso s ancillary services market the paper also discusses the real time dispatch of ancillary services

a survey of frequency and voltage control ancillary services part i technical features this two part paper surveys the frequency and voltage control ancillary services in power systems from various parts of the world in this second part essential economic features that must be taken into account when designing markets for ancillary services are first discussed the methods adopted in eight different systems australia france germany great britain new zealand pjm spain and sweden for trading frequency and voltage control ancillary services are then compared lastly new indicators for comparing volumes and costs of ancillary services across systems are proposed and calculated for the systems included in this survey the companion paper surveys the technical features of these ancillary services

a class of tractable incomplete market models for studying asset returns and risk exposure abstract we present a class of tractable incomplete market models where agents face both aggregate risk and limited participation in financial markets tractability relies on the assumptions of small asset volumes and of a period utility function that is linear beyond a threshold in line with fishburn s 1977 contribution in decision theory we prove the existence of an equilibrium and derive theoretical results regarding asset prices and consumption choices this small trade model is able to reproduce a low safe return and a high equity premium together with a realistic representation of household exposure to both idiosyncratic and aggregate risks

what have we learned from empirical studies of unemployment and turnover unemployment reminds economists that we have a lot to be modest about twenty years ago robert hall 1972 asked why is the unemployment rate so high at full employment at the time hall wrote male unemployment in the united states had risen to 3 5 percent and it would peak at 4 4 percent in the recession of 1971 since then every cyclical low of unemployment has exceeded the one before it the end of the 1980 s expansion reduced unemployment to about 4 5 percent and unemployment peaked at 7 4 percent of the labor force in the recession that just ended the natural rate of unemployment has evidently risen through time which led lawrence summers 1986 to place a modifier in hall s question why is the unemployment rate so very high in what follows i pose three questions about the causes and consequences of rising joblessness first who are the unemployed i will show that unemployment and nonparticipation are heavily concentrated among the least skilled and more importantly that virtually all of the long term increase in joblessness occurs among low wage men unemployment and nonparticipation among highly skilled men are unchanged since the 1960 s second what factors have caused jobless time to rise there are many theories including changes in labor force demographics social programs that discourage employment and changes in the amount of frictional unemployment caused by sectoral shifts none of these is consistent with the evidence which points instead to a secular decline in the demand for lessskilled workers the data also cast doubt on nonmarket clearing models of rising unemployment wages are demonstrably flexible in the long run and they have fallen dramatically among the unskilled whose jobless rates have risen third what happens to the unemployed in contrast to the view that unemployment spells cause transitory reductions in income recent evidence indicates that job losses have substantial and permanent effects on earning power many of the unskilled who are unemployed or out of the labor force appear to have been high wage workers whose specialized skills have become obsolete

incentive compatible imbalance settlement imbalance settlement markets are managed by the system operators and provide a mechanism for settling the inevitable discrepancies between contractual agreements and physical delivery in european power markets settlements schemes are mainly based on heuristic penalties these arrangements have disadvantages first they do not provide transparency about the cost of the reserve capacity that the system operator may have obtained ahead of time nor about the cost of the balancing energy that is actually deployed second they can be gamed if market participants use the imbalance settlement as an opportunity for market arbitrage for example if market participants use balancing energy to avoid higher costs through regular trade on illiquid energy markets third current practice hinders the market based integration of renewable energy and the provision of financial incentives for demand response through rigid penalty rules in this paper we try to remedy these disadvantages by proposing an imbalance settlement procedure with an incentive compatible cost allocation scheme for reserve capacity and deployed energy incentive compatible means that market participants voluntarily and truthfully state their valuation of ancillary services we show that this approach guarantees revenue sufficiency for the system operator and provides financial incentives for balance responsible parties to keep imbalances close to zero

productivity technical efficiency and technological change in french agriculture during 2002 2015 a fare primont index decomposition using group frontiers and meta frontier the objective of the article is to assess productivity change in french agriculture during 2002 2015 namely total factor productivity tfp change and its components technological change and ef

costs of business cycles for unskilled workers abstract unskilled workers are subject to a much larger risk of unemployment during recessions than are skilled workers moreover unskilled workers earn less income which limits their ability to self insure we examine how this heterogeneity in unemployment risk and income across different skill groups translates into heterogeneity in the cost of business cycles we find that the welfare cost of business cycles for unskilled workers is substantially higher than the welfare cost for skilled workers

the impact of job security on job satisfaction in economic contractions versus expansions job security often measured using the perceived risk of job loss in the near future is a significant determinant of job satisfaction we posit that the impact job security has on job satisfaction is not only a function of how likely it is that a worker loses a job but also how likely it is that a worker could find another the effect this has on worker job satisfaction then is different depending on whether perceived job loss occurs or not when job openings are scarce or when job openings are plentiful we use difference in differences analysis of the 1997 and 2008 waves from the national study of the changing workforce to show that three measures of job security increase private sector worker job satisfaction and reduce worker incentives to quit more when job openings are relatively scarce during contractions than when job openings are relatively plentiful during expansions we find that our results are strongest among less educated workers

wealth distribution with random discount factors abstract to explain the pareto tail behavior empirically observed in wealth distributions the quantitative macro literature has occasionally assumed that agents have random discount factors this paper formally proves that the stationary wealth distribution in a simple huggett model with random discounting has power law tails and characterizes the pareto exponents analytically i find that in general there is no clear relationship between the return on wealth and inequality and that the pareto exponent is highly sensitive to the persistence of the discount factor process i also provide a practical guidance for how to characterize the pareto exponents in richer models

separations sorting and cyclical unemployment abstract this paper establishes a new fact about the compositional changes in the pool of unemployed over the us business cycle using microdata from the current population survey for the years 1962 2012 it documents that in recessions the pool of unemployed shifts toward workers with high wages in their previous job and that these shifts are driven by the high cyclicality of separations for high wage workers the paper finds that standard theories of wage setting and unemployment have difficulty in explaining these patterns and evaluates a number of alternative theories that do better in accounting for the new fact jel e24 e32 j31 j63 j64

the limits of wage flexibility to curing unemployment this article takes a critical look at the view that wage flexibility us style is the panacea to european unemployment problems it shows that the wage flexibility in the us in the 1980s 1990s was associated with rising inequality and falling real wages for many workers reduced rather than increased employment for the low paid and less skilled whose wages fell and arguably contributed to the growth of a significant criminal population the proportion of american men incarcerated comes close to the proportion of european men long term unemployed the limits to wage flexibility in curing unemployment noted in the paper does not mean the reductions in pay may not under some circumstances raise employment but rather that by themselves massive pay cuts for the low paid are no cure to economic problems copyright 1995 by oxford university press

measuring super efficiency in dea in the presence of infeasibility super efficiency data envelopment analysis dea model is obtained when a decision making unit dmu under evaluation is excluded from the reference set because of the possible infeasibility of super efficiency dea model the use of super efficiency dea model has been restricted to the situations where constant returns to scale crs are assumed it is shown that one of the input oriented and output oriented super efficiency dea models must be feasible for a any efficient dmu under evaluation if the variable returns to scale vrs frontier consists of increasing constant and decreasing returns to scale dmus we use both input and output oriented super efficiency models to fully characterize the super efficiency when super efficiency is used as an efficiency stability measure infeasibility means the highest super efficiency stability if super efficiency is interpreted as input saving or output surplus achieved by a specific efficient dmu infeasibility does not necessary mean the highest super efficiency

the return to schooling in structural dynamic models a survey this papers contains a survey of the recent literature devoted to the returns to schooling within a dynamic structural framework i present a historical perspective on the evolution of the literature from early static models set in a selectivity framework willis and rosen 1979 to the recent literature stimulated by keane and wolpin 1997 and which uses stochastic dynamic programming techniques after reviewing the literature thoroughly i compare the structural approach with the iv experimental approach i present their commonalities and i also discuss their fundamental di8erences to get an order of magnitude most structural estimates reported for the us range between 4 and 7 per year on the other hand iv estimates between 10 and 15 per year are often reported the discrepancy prevails even when comparable if not identical data sets are used the discussion is focussed on understanding this divergence the distinction between static and dynamic model specifications is a recurrent theme in the analysis i argue that the distinction between the iv approach and the structural approach may be coined in terms of a trade o8 between behavioral and statistical assumptions for this reason and unless one has very specific knowledge of the true data generating process it is neither possible nor sensible to claim which approach to estimation is more flexible more precisely i show that structural and iv approaches differ mainly at the level of i the compatibility of the underlying models with truly dynamic behavior ii the role of heterogeneity in ability and tastes iii the consideration of post schooling opportunities and iv the specification and interpretation of the mincer wage equation

technology and the us labor market evidence from the sectoral and regional decomposition of the change in the us workforce skill mix abstract researchers have found indirect evidence supporting the role of technology in changing the workforce skill mix in the us by decomposing the change in the skill mix into within between industry components this paper provides additional support for the role of technology by extending the decomposition analysis into both the sectoral and the regional dimensions

unbundling of transmission and ancillary services ii cost based pricing framework for pt i see ibid vol 12 no 2 1997 this paper presents a systematic framework for pricing transmission and ancillary services in competitive power markets this framework is based on the recovery of fixed and operating costs and it meets the traditional revenue requirements it is practical feasible easy to implement and to regulate it can be implemented with minimum transition cost this network flow dependent and nondiscriminatory framework is based on the decomposition approach presented in part i of this paper this decomposition forms an essential part of the proposed framework for usage based recovery of the fixed and operating costs the transmission system related fixed cost component is recovered from all transactions based on percentage utilization of the transmission system equipment the charge is based on the actual network power flows the ancillary service charge for a given transaction can be computed as the sum of the costs incurred at secondary generation for compensating the imbalance caused by that specific transaction the path providing function of the transmission grid is viewed as a true monopolistic service its pricing is cost based and charge for its use is usage based the generation based ancillary service supply can be made competitive its pricing is market based and charge for it is usage based a global overview of the proposed pricing strategy is analyzed in the context of other alternatives especially cost based methods a numerical example on a five bus system is given to illustrate the use of this pricing strategy

a bi objective weighted model for improving the discrimination power in mcdea lack of discrimination power and poor weight dispersion remain major issues in data envelopment analysis dea since the initial multiple criteria dea mcdea model developed in the late 1990s only goal programming approaches that is the gpdea ccr and gpdea bcc were introduced for solving the said problems in a multi objective framework we found gpdea models to be invalid and demonstrate that our proposed bi objective multiple criteria dea bio mcdea outperforms the gpdea models in the aspects of discrimination power and weight dispersion as well as requiring less computational codes an application of energy dependency among 25 european union member countries is further used to describe the efficacy of our approach

globalization and its challenges rudi was born and grew up in krefeld germany he was an undergraduate at the university of geneva and completed his ph d at the university of chicago in 1971 which is where we met he was a student of robert mundell and both the subject matter the development of the mundell fleming model and the elegance and insights of his early work reflected mundell s influence he taught at the university of rochester and at the university of chicago before accepting an offer from mit in 1975

labor market matching with precautionary savings and aggregate fluctuations we analyze a bewley huggett aiyagari incomplete markets model with labor market frictions consumers are subject to idiosyncratic employment shocks against which they cannot insure directly the labor market has a diamond mortensen pissarides structure firms enter by posting vacancies and match with workers bilaterally with match probabilities given by an aggregate matching function wages are determined through nash bargaining we also consider aggregate productivity shocks and a complete set of contingent claims conditional on this risk we use the model to evaluate a tax financed unemployment insurance scheme higher insurance is beneficial for consumption smoothing but because it raises workers outside option value it discourages firm entry we find that the latter effect is more potent for welfare outcomes we tabulate the effects quantitatively for different kinds of consumers we also demonstrate that productivity changes in the model in steady state as well as stochastic ones generate rather limited unemployment effects unless workers are close to indifferent between working and not working thus recent findings are corroborated in our more general setting

measuring the influence of unemployment insurance on unemployment experiences this article investigates the comprehensive effects of unemployment insurance ui policies on the amount of time and unemployment that individuals report between jobs the econometric model jointly determines the effects of ui on the lengths of nonemployment spells the classification of these spells as unemployment and the likelihood of collecting program benefits the model carefully attempts to isolate variation in ui benefits attributable to differences in generosity across programs to avoid biases in estimating policy effects induced by other contaminating sources of benefit variation using data on men from the national longitudinal survey of youth the empirical results find a ui recipients typically experience longer spells between jobs at least up to the exhaustion of ui benefits and report substantially larger fractions of these spells as unemployment b weekly benefit amounts exert no significant influence on the likelihood of ui recipiency on the length of spells between jobs or on t

optimization and analysis of the profitability of tariff structures with two part tariffs abstract service providers often offer tariff structures with several two part tariffs that consist of a fixed fee and a usage price such that consumers may pick the tariff they prefer prices of tariffs have significant impacts on service providers profit because they simultaneously influence consumers tariff choices and their usage the number of tariffs also plays an important role because more tariffs segment the market better but also increase the administrative burden and require more marketing effort this article presents a mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization problem to determine profit maximizing tariffs compares several heuristic search methods in particular the gradient method stochastic search and simulated annealing to solve this problem analyses the profitability of different tariff structures and outlines the factors that drive differences in profitability across various tariff structures the results show that especially for large samples of more than 100 consumers simulated annealing performs best and deviates only 0 2 from the optimum structures with fewer two part tariffs are generally sufficient because additional two part tariffs only negligibly increase service providers profit

unobserved ability and the return to schooling in the empirical literature it is customary to estimate the return to schooling by ordinary least squares ols or instrumental variable iv techniques 2 the choice of ols is justified only if realized schooling and unobserved labor market ability are uncorrelated if not ols estimates suffer the ability bias and other estimation methods such as iv may be used the volume of work devoted to the return to schooling is a good indication of the importance of this topic as perceived by economists 3 frequently instrumental variables iv techniques are applied in a context where the instrument is only weakly correlated with schooling attainments staiger and stock 1997 as a consequence the validity of very high returns to schooling reported in a simple regression framework should be seriously questioned see manski and pepper 2000 4 when iv techniques are chosen the log wage regression is usually assumed to be linear in schooling however there is no obvious reason to presume that the local returns to schooling are independent of grade level indeed heterogeneity in any component of schooling choices subjective discount rates ability or specific taste for schooling will lead to improper inference if the local returns are erroneously assumed to be constant as individuals with lower taste for schooling tend to stop school earlier ols or iv estimates of the return to schooling which impose equality between local and average returns at all levels of schooling will be strongly affected by the relative frequencies of individuals with high and low taste for schooling more precisely if there are large differences in local returns between various grade levels the ols estimate measuring an average log wage increment per year of schooling will tend to be biased toward the co editor and three anonymous referees for comments and suggestions on this version or earlier versions belzil thanks the social sciences and humanities research council of canada for generous funding the usual disclaimer applies 2 to use the same terminology as in the reduced form literature the return local to schooling refers to the percentage wage increase per additional year of schooling in the paper the terms local and marginal returns may be used interchangeably the average return refers to the slope of the straight line between the intercept and the expected log wage at a given number of years of schooling 3 a world wide web survey of the most recent literature indicates that since 1970 more than 200 published articles or working papers set in a reduced form have been devoted to the estimation of the return to schooling or surrounding issues very often studies based on iv methods conclude that the returns to schooling can be between 20 and 40 above the ols estimates reported estimates around 15 per year for the us are not uncommon although standard errors are typically very high see card 1999 for a survey 4 manski and pepper 2000 obtain upper bound estimates of the return to schooling from a sample taken from the nlsy their results cast doubts on the high returns reported in the literature

ranking efficient decision making units in data envelopment analysis based on reference frontier share abstract data envelopment analysis dea is a powerful technique for performance evaluation of decision making units dmus ranking efficient dmus based on a rational analysis is an issue that yet needs further research the impact of each efficient dmu in evaluation of inefficient dmus can be considered as additional information to discriminating among efficient dmus the concept of reference frontier share is introduced in which the share of each efficient dmu in construction of the reference frontier for evaluating inefficient dmus is considered for this purpose a model for measuring the reference frontier share of each efficient dmu associated with each inefficient one is proposed and then a total measure is provided based on which the ranking is made the new approach has the capability for ranking extreme and non extreme efficient dmus further it has no problem in dealing with negative data these facts are verified by theorems discussions and numerical examples

sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment a substantial fraction of cyclical unemployment is better characterized as fluctuations of the frictional or natural rate than as deviations from some relatively stable natural rate shifts of employment demand between sectors of the economy necessitate continuous labor reallocation since it takes time for workers to find new jobs some unemployment is unavoidable this paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies unlike those in the sixties were induced by unusual structural shifts within the u s economy simple time series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market these models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructed

a bilevel approach to transmission expansion planning within a market environment we present a bilevel model for transmission expansion planning within a market environment where producers and consumers trade freely electric energy through a pool the target of the transmission planner modeled through the upper level problem is to minimize network investment cost while facilitating energy trading this upper level problem is constrained by a collection of lower level market clearing problems representing pool trading and whose individual objective functions correspond to social welfare using the duality theory the proposed bilevel model is recast as a mixed integer linear programming problem which is solvable using branch and cut solvers detailed results from an illustrative example and a case study are presented and discussed finally some relevant conclusions are drawn

from the peaks to the valleys cross state evidence on income volatility over the business cycle abstract countercyclical variation in individuals idiosyncratic labor income risk could generate substantial welfare costs following past research we infer income volatility the variance of permanent income shocks a standard proxy for income risk from the rate at which cross sectional variances of income rise over the life cycle for a given cohort our novelty lies in exploiting cross state variation in state economic conditions or state sensitivity to national economic conditions we find that income volatility is higher in good state times than bad during good national times we find volatility is higher in states that are more sensitive to national conditions

the effect of price regulation on energy imbalances a difference in differences design abstract providing adequate incentives to schedule energy programs accurately is a critical feature of liberalized electricity markets particularly those with large shares of intermittent renewable energy resources in this regard two main regulatory approaches are widely adopted in europe the single pricing scheme rewards or penalizes market agents according to the impact of their individual imbalances on the system imbalance the dual pricing scheme penalizes at best does not reward all individual energy imbalances this study theoretically identifies and then provides supporting empirical evidence of potential inconsistencies between market agents balancing responsibility and the economic incentives provided by these pricing rules de facto opportunities for arbitrage in sequential markets the causal effect of imbalance price regulations on the volume of the energy imbalances is investigated by exploiting a quasi experimental change in regulation in the italian power system a difference in differences design provides robust evidence that the volume of intentional imbalances significantly decreases when moving from a single to dual pricing scheme we conclude that the economic incentives of a dual pricing scheme are better aligned with a market agent s responsibility to be balanced and worth of further consideration from a policy perspective

asset bubbles and the cost of economic fluctuations lucas 1987 2003 estimates that the cost of economic fluctuations is low a social planner would pay no more than 0 1 of permanent consumption to eliminate all future business cycle fluctuations the current paper extends lucas calculations by studying the costs of fluctuations arising from asset bubbles we estimate two classes of costs consumption volatility due to asset bubbles in a representative agent economy and consumption volatility that arises because households have heterogeneous exposure to the bubble assets we show that the magnitude of welfare costs is primarily driven by the existence of heterogeneity our benchmark calibration implies that the asset bubbles of the last decade generated a social welfare cost equal to a permanent 3 reduction in the level of national consumption if assets are held proportionately across the population these welfare costs fall by an order of magnitude our calculations are sensitive to the details of the calibration including the degree of balance sheet and trading heterogeneity the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the magnitude of the asset bubble our preferred specifications generate welfare costs ranging from 1 to 10 of permanent national consumption

the health and earnings of rejected disability insurance applicants applicants for social security disability benefits who fail to pass the medical screening form a natural control group for beneficiaries data drawn from the 1972 and 1978 surveys of the disabled done for the social security administration show that fewer than 50 percent of rejected male applicants work typical earnings of those that do are less than 59 percent of median earnings for other men their age these data cast doubt on recent econometric work that suggests that the disincentive effects of the social security disability program have been substantial copyright 1989 by american economic association

the role of unemployment insurance in an economy with liquidity constraints and moral hazard the potential welfare benefits of unemployment insurance along with the optimal replacement ratio are studied using a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model to provide a role for unemployment insurance agents in our economy face exogenous idiosyncratic employment shocks and are unable to borrow or insure themselves through private markets in the absence of moral hazard replacement ratios as high as 65 are optimal and the welfare benefits of unemployment insurance are quite large however if there is moral hazard and the replacement ratio is not set optimally but is instead set to an empirically plausible value the economy can be much worse off than it would be without unemployment insurance

super efficiency dea in the presence of infeasibility it is well known that super efficiency data envelopment analysis dea approach can be infeasible under the condition of variable returns to scale vrs by extending of the work of chen 2005 the current study develops a two stage process for calculating super efficiency scores regardless whether the standard vrs super efficiency mode is feasible or not the proposed approach examines whether the standard vrs super efficiency dea model is infeasible when the model is feasible our approach yields super efficiency scores that are identical to those arising from the original model for efficient dmus that are infeasible under the super efficiency model our approach yields super efficiency scores that characterize input savings and or output surpluses the current study also shows that infeasibility may imply that an efficient dmu does not exhibit super efficiency in inputs or outputs when infeasibility occurs it can be necessary that i both inputs and outputs be decreased to reach the frontier formed by the remaining dmus under the input orientation and ii both inputs and outputs be increased to reach the frontier formed by the remaining dmus under the output orientation the newly developed approach is illustrated with numerical examples

evaluating risky consumption paths the role of intertemporal substitutability abstract in dynamic stochastic welfare comparisons a failure clearly to distinguish between risk aversion and intertemporal substitutability can result in misleading assessments of the impact of risk aversion on the welfare costs of consumption risk changes the problem arises in any setting in which uncertainty is propagated over time notably but not exclusively in economies with stochastic consumption trends regardless of the preference setup adopted an increase in risk aversion amplifies the per period costs of risks the weights consumers use to cumulate the per period costs of risks with persistent effects should however depend on intertemporal substitutability as well as on risk aversion under time separable expected utility preferences an increase in the period utility function s curvature therefore alters the welfare effect of risk for reasons that are in part unrelated to risk aversion to illustrate these points i reconsider lucas s estimate of the cost of consumption instability for the postwar united states

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

reliability differentiated real time pricing of electricity optimal resource planning and power dispatch models from a societal welfare point of view imply an optimal pricing policy which is referred to here as reliability differentiated real time pricing or in short reliability differentiated pricing this pricing scheme combines real time pricing and priority pricing with reliability differentiation based on consumer outage costs this pricing policy is analyzed the model used in the analysis is developed with particular emphasis on consumer behavior and welfare effects the implications of the model for the pricing of spinning reserve and firm capacity as well as for revenue reconciliation are examined it is concluded that such a pricing scheme will in general result in greater attainable welfare than either the real time pricing or priority pricing paradigms moreover it results in the maximum attainable welfare for the system with revenue reconciliation and provides an optimal pricing scheme for spinning revenue and firm capacity

life cycle schooling and dynamic selection bias models and evidence for five cohorts of american males this paper examines an empirical regularity found in many societies that family influences on the probability of transiting from one grade level to the next diminish at higher levels of education we examine the statistical model used to establish the empirical regularity and the intuitive behavioral interpretation often used to rationalize it we show that the implicit economic model assumes myopia the intuitive interpretive model is identified only by imposing arbitrary distributional assumptions onto the data we produce an alternative choice theoretic model with fewer parameters that rationalizes the same data and is not based on arbitrary distributional assumptions

ambiguity aversion asset prices and the welfare costs of aggregate fluctuations under the hypothesis that aggregate u s consumption is random and more importantly viewed as ambiguous by consumers we examine the implications for asset prices and for how consumption uctuations in uence consumer welfare first considering a simple mehra prescott style endowment economy with a representative agent facing consumption uctuations calibrated to match u s data we study to what extent ambiguity aversion can deliver asset prices that are consistent with data a high return on equity and a low return on riskfree bonds for some conflgurations of preference parameters a discount factor a degree of relative risk aversion and a measure of ambiguity aversion we flnd that it can we then use these parameter conflgurations to investigate how much consumers would be willing to pay to reduce endowment uctuations to zero thus delivering a lucas style welfare cost of uctuations these costs turn out to be very large consumers can be willing to pay over 10 of consumption in permanent terms

international capital mobility and unemployment dynamics empirical evidence from oecd countries we use a panel of 20 oecd countries over a 30 year period to estimate the implications of international capital mobility for unemployment we nd that the increase in capital ows since the mid 1980s has contributed to an ampli cation of the impulse response of unemployment to country speci c shocks and to a fall in the persistence of unemployment in response to the same shocks

structural estimates of the intergenerational education correlation using a structural dynamic programming model we investigate the relative importance of family background variables and individual specific abilities in explaining cross sectional differences in schooling attainments and wages each type of ability is the sum of one component correlated with family background variables and a residual orthogonal component which is purely individual specific household background variables especially parents education account for 68 of the explained cross sectional variations in schooling attainments while ability correlated with background variables accounts for 17 and pure individual specific ability accounts for 15 interestingly individual differences in wages are mostly explained by pure individual specific abilities as they account for as much as 73 of the explained variations in wages family background variables account for only 19 while ability endowments correlated with family background account for 8 copyright 2003 john wiley sons ltd

the implications of changes in hours fluctuations on welfare costs of business cycles abstract hours volatility has changed non monotonically across skill groups since the mid 1980s the welfare cost of business cycles of mid skilled workers became similar to that of high skilled workers while the relative welfare cost of low to high skilled workers remains very high

a dea based incentives system for centrally managed multi unit organisations in multi unit organisations such as a bank and its branches or a national body delivering publicly funded health or education services through local operating units the need arises to incentivize the units to operate efficiently in such instances it is generally accepted that units found to be inefficient can be encouraged to make efficiency savings however units which are found to be efficient need to be incentivized in a different manner it has been suggested that efficient units could be incentivized by some reward compatible with the level to which their attainment exceeds that of the best of the rest normally referred to as super efficiency a recent approach to this issue varmaz et al 2013 has used data envelopment analysis dea models to measure the super efficiency of the whole system of operating units with and without the involvement of each unit in turn in order to provide incentives we identify shortcomings in this approach and use it as a starting point to develop a new dea based system for incentivizing operating units to operate efficiently for the benefit of the aggregate system of units data from a small german retail bank is used to illustrate our method

super efficiency infeasibility and zero data in dea lee et al 2011 and chen and liang 2011 develop a data envelopment analysis dea model to address the infeasibility issue in super efficiency models in this paper we point out that their model is feasible when input data are positive but can be infeasible when some of input is zero their model is modified so that the new super efficiency dea model is always feasible when data are non negative note that zero data can make the super efficiency model under constant returns to scale crs infeasible our discussion is based upon variable returns to scale vrs and can be applied to crs super efficiency models

lost in transition the costs and consequences of sectoral labour adjustment this paper uses an equilibrium search and matching model to study canada s sectoral labour adjustment in 2002 2006 during an increase in global commodity prices and exchange rate appreciation i estimate economically significant adjustment costs for the aggregate economy in this episode and demonstrate that difficulty in transferring skills between jobs for individual workers can be an important contributor to these aggregate costs the analysis also demonstrates that the level of unemployment benefits impacts the economy s sectoral composition its aggregate productivity and the speed of its adjustment to shocks ce texte utilise un modele d equilibre de la recherche et de l arrimage pour etudier les ajustements sectoriels du travail au canada dans la periode 2002 2006 une periode d appreciation des prix globaux des produits de base et du taux de change j estime que les couts d ajustement sont economiquement significatifs pour l economie agregee au cours de cet episode et que la difficultea transferer les competences entre emplois pour les travailleurs individuels peut etre une source importante de ces couts agreges les analyses montrent aussi que le niveau des prestations d assurance emploi a un impact sur la composition sectorielle de l economie sur la productivite et sur la vitesse des ajustements aux chocs

banks efficiency and credit risk analysis using by production approach the case of iranian banks abstractthis article uses a by production approach that integrates credit risk to monitor bank efficiency the method overcomes the possible misspecification issues of the commonly assumed weak disposability wda of undesirable outputs in addition our measure extends the classic by production approach by including statistical aspects through subsampling techniques we have also provided an algorithm to correct related infeasibilities using this approach we investigate the performance of iranian banks and credit risk management in the sector for the period 1998 2012 non performing loans npls have been used as an undesirable output and proxy for credit risk in our models based on our empirical results although the banks generally exhibited efficiency improvements over time their credit risk performance deteriorated considerably after the regulatory changes introduced in 2005 these findings confirm that credit quality can be monitored more actively across iranian banks

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

educational financing and lifetime earnings this paper formulates and estimates a dynamic programming model of optimal educational financing decisions the main purpose of the paper is to measure the effect of short term parental cash transfers received during school on educational borrowing and in school work decisions and on post graduation lifetime earnings the estimated parameters of the model imply that parental cash transfers do not significantly influence post graduation lifetime earnings long term factors such as family background and prior human capital investments are more important parental cash transfers do however significantly determine the decision to borrow or work during school and the level of lifetime consumption

unemployment insurance in the united states layoff incentives and cross subsidies we survey unemployment insurance ui in the united states and provide new evidence on the ui payroll tax most ui receipt is due to firms that pay part of the ui costs of their layoffs but weak experience rating leads most firms to pay considerably less than the full costs industries consistently receiving subsidies from the ui system are construction manufacturing and mining finally a large fraction of layoffs resulting in payment of ui are made by firms that are not charged for the costs of the claim because they have employed the individual for less than 2 quarters

cost of business cycles with indivisibilities and liquidity constraints it is almost universally agreed that individuals face incomplete insurance markets and cannot perfectly insure against the idiosyncratic risk in this paper simple general equilibrium models with incomplete insurance markets are examined in order to assess the impact of imperfect insurance on the magnitude of the welfare costs of business cycles two versions of incomplete insurance markets are considered and certain statistical properties of the equilibrium stochastic processes in these environments are compared with those of a perfect insurance economy

unemployment in regional labor markets using structural theories to understand local jobless rates in west virginia the author uses a range of structural labor market models to understand differing regional jobless rates in a state affected by pockets of structural unemployment four theories of regional structural unemployment are presented and their hypotheses are statistically evaluated using west virginia county panel data the author then presents case study evidence to compare these statistical results with the realities of the county labor markets both types of empirical evidence suggest that a segmented non market clearing model in which structural unemployment stems from queuing for above market clearing wages in both a high wage primary sector and a lower wage secondary sector can shed the most light on regional unemployment rates in west virginia

measures of technical efficiency abstract fare and lovell j econom theory 19 1978 150 162 suggest four properties that a measure of technical efficiency should satisfy the commonly employed debreu farrell measure fails three of them necessary and sufficient conditions for a measure to satisfy the four conditions are provided and recently proposed measures are analyzed in the light of this result also it is argued that the debreu farrell measure has several desirable properties when one takes account of 1 perhaps unknown market prices and the relationship between technical and economic efficiency and 2 its characterization as a measure of economic efficiency using the shadow prices implicit in the production technology

the cost of business cycles under endogenous growth robert e lucas jr argued that the welfare gains from reducing aggregate consumption volatility are negligible subsequent work that revisited his calculation continued to find small welfare benefits further reinforcing the perception that business cycles do not matter this paper argues instead that fluctuations can affect welfare by affecting the growth rate of consumption i show that fluctuations can reduce growth starting from a given initial consumption which can imply substantial welfare effects as lucas himself observed empirical evidence suggests the welfare effects are likely to be substantial about two orders of magnitude greater than lucas original estimates

gender and multidimensional poverty in nicaragua an individual based approach most existing empirical papers concerned about multidimensional poverty use the household as the unit of analysis so that the multidimensional poverty status of the household is equated with the multidimensional poverty status of all its members this assumption ignores intra household inequalities additionally households containing both a female and a male cannot contribute to a gender gap in poverty so gender differentials in poverty cannot be estimated but the sustainable development goals have put special emphasis on gender equality therefore new measures able to capture the gender differences are needed consequently in this paper we propose an individual based multidimensional poverty measure in order to estimate the three i s of multidimensional poverty incidence intensity and inequality in nicaragua as well as the gender differentials we also estimate logit regressions to better understanding the determinants of multidimensional poverty in this country overall we find that there are statistically significant gender differences in multidimensional poverty in nicaragua but they are estimated to be small and lower than 5 however the gender differential in inequality is larger than 10 and it suggests that multi dimensionally poor women are living in very intense poverty when compared with multi dimensionally poor men we also find that the elderly and children are the most vulnerable people in terms of multidimensional poverty in this country furthermore when information on employment domestic work and social protection is considered in the analysis the gender gaps become more substantial and women are more likely to be poor than men

unemployment risk and wage differentials workers in less secure jobs are often paid less than identical looking workers in more secure jobs we show that this lack of compensating differentials for unemployment risk can arise in equilibrium when all workers are identical and firms differ only in job security i e the probability that the worker is not sent into unemployment in a setting where workers search for new positions both on and off the job the worker s marginal willingness to pay for job security is endogenous increasing with the rent received by a worker in his job and depending on the behavior of all firms in the labor market we solve for the labor market equilibrium and find that wages increase with job security for at least all firms in the risky tail of the distribution of firm level unemployment risk unemployment becomes persistent for low wage and unemployed workers a seeming pattern of unemployment scarring created entirely by firm heterogeneity higher in the wage distribution workers can take wage cuts to move to more stable employment

college entry by blacks since 1970 the role of college costs family background and the returns to education college enrollment of black 18 19 year old high school graduates declined from 1980 through 1984 and then rebounded after 1984 this paper presents data from a time series of cross sections of 18 19 year old youths from 1973 through 1988 to test the role of family background direct college costs local economic conditions and returns to college in driving these trends the evidence suggests that on the one hand increases in direct college costs were driving enrollment rates downward throughout the eighties on the other hand dramatic increases in average parental education for black youths exerted upward pressure on college enrollment by blacks particularly in the latter half of the decade the net effect of these two factors contributed to the pattern of decline and recovery observed during the eighties

lost jobs and health insurance an analysis of the impact of employment volatility on firm provided health insurance it is an established fact that there are high levels of employment volatility in the us despite the importance of employer provided benefits in the us health insurance system the impact of prior job instability on one s future ability to obtain insurance coverage is not well understood this article finds a negative relationship between the volatility of a worker s employment and her likelihood of receiving firm provided health insurance previous employment volatility reduces each of the four factors necessary to receive such insurance a worker s subsequent chances of getting a job her chances of getting a job in a firm that offers coverage her chances of staying with the firm long enough to become eligible for coverage and her ability to take up insurance if offered the most important impact is on the last her ability to take up insurance if offered lack of employment is not the only and not even the largest barrier to individual coverage under this system this finding has important policy imp

are workers permanently scarred by job displacements this paper investigates whether workers suffer lasting scars following job displacements using david t ellwood s 1982 terminology scars represent persistent effects whereas blemishes are transitory adjustments which dissipate over time more precisely dislocated individuals are defined as scarred if they continue to earn less or to be unemployed more than their nondisplaced counterparts even after the conclusion of a several year adjustment period