price and yield effects of spill overs in international agricultural research evidence from icrisat and australia international agricultural research aimed at improving productivity in developing countries also has spill over effects on developed countries research that affects the supply of commodities is also likely to affect the world price of tradeable commodities in this paper the effects of spill overs to australia from successful cost reducing research into sorghum and chickpeas at the international crops research institute for the semi arid tropics icrisat aimed at developing countries are assessed genetic materials developed and distributed through icrisat are used in australia to increase productivity the price reducing effects of successful research are incorporated into the analysis of spill over impacts on productivity the net effects on welfare for producers and consumers of sorghum and chickpeas in australia and the rest of the world row are identified the consequences of the impacts are discussed and the implications for further funding of international agricultural research are also discussed

the incidence of benefits from u s soybean productivity gains in a context of world trade a new procedure for measuring the k shift in the supply function from new technology is introduced this procedure is used to show that u s soybean total factor productivity increased by 1 6 per year between 1974 and 1983 brazilian and argentine soybean productivity increased 2 4 per year during this period total economic surplus in the u s and the rest of the world increased between 1 7 and 3 2 billion of this total u s resource owners received between 1 3 and 1 5 billion and u s consumers received between a 0 1 and 0 2 billion increase in income from increased soybean productivity

forward looking assessment of the ghg abatement cost application to china abstract evaluation of abatement costs is critical in setting reduction goals and devising climate policy however reliable forward looking assessment of the short term effects of climate policy remains a major challenge using panel data of 30 chinese provinces during 1997 2015 we first estimate the marginal co2 abatement costs using a novel data driven approach convex quantile regression based on the marginal abatement cost estimates and china s plans regarding carbon intensity reduction and economic growth we present a forward looking assessment of the abatement costs for chinese provinces for 2016 2020 our main finding is that all the chinese provinces have a negative abatement cost which means these provinces can benefit from an increase in the absolute level of co2 emissions despite the constraint on carbon intensity the magnitudes of economic benefits exhibit a significant regional disparity because some provinces can increase more co2 emissions than others however there is still costly carbon intensity abatement relative to a counterfactual where the provinces meet their economic growth targets but in the absence of the intensity reduction constraints policy implications have been proposed to enhance the efficiency and fairness of climate policy in china

estimating griliches k shifts griliches k shift a crucial parameter in the welfare evaluation of technological change is shown to be equal to the radial rate of technological change plus a vector of commodity bias parameters obtained from the distance function the analysis permits decomposition of sectoral productivity growth into productivity growth by commodity the k shifts estimated for wheat corn soybeans and beef in u s agriculture indicate a decrease in the marginal cost of production of corn soybeans and wheat during the 1950 1993 years

information flow and pricing errors a unified approach to estimation and testing this study examines whether rates of information flow differ between trading and nontrading periods and whether the variances of pricing errors differ at the open and close of trading the approach improves on existing methods by allowing for correlation between pricing errors and information flow and by conducting inferences at the individual security level the daytime rate of information flow is about seven times the overnight rate and the variances of pricing errors at the open are not different from those at the close of trading this evidence differs from existing results based on return variance ratios much of the empirical market microstructure literature predicates its analysis on a model in which price changes have a permanent information related component and a transitory market friction or dealer cost component two questions that have received a great deal of attention relate to the behavior of these components the first is whether and to what extent the rate of information flow into prices differs during trading and nontrading periods this is equivalent to asking whether the variance of the permanent component per unit time is different during periods when trading occurs than when trading does not occur the second question is whether pricing errors of differing magnitudes are associated with different trading mechanisms or trading preceded by an overnight period of nontrading this corresponds to asking whether the variance of the transitory component is different depending on which trading mechanism is used or whether trading has been halted for a time more generally these questions relate to whether the permanent and transitory components of price changes are heteroskedastic although both questions share the context of this model existing studies typically focus

sports sentiment and stock returns this paper investigates the stock market reaction to sudden changes in investor mood motivated by psychological evidence of a strong link between soccer outcomes and mood we use international soccer results as our primary mood variable we find a significant market decline after soccer losses for example a loss in the world cup elimination stage leads to a next day abnormal stock return of 49 basis points this loss effect is stronger in small stocks and in more important games and is robust to methodological changes we also document a loss effect after international cricket rugby and basketball games this paper employs a novel mood variable international soccer results to investigate the effect of investor sentiment on asset prices using a cross section of 39 countries we find that losses in soccer matches have an economically and statistically significant negative effect on the losing country s stock market for example elimination from a major international soccer tournament is associated with a next day return on the national stock market index that is 38 basis points lower than average we also document a loss effect after international cricket rugby and basketball games on average the effect is smaller in magnitude for these other sports than for soccer but is still economically and statistically significant we find no evidence of a corresponding effect after wins for any of the sports that we study controlling for the pre game expected outcome we are able to reject the hypothesis that the loss effect after soccer games is driven by economic factors such as reduced productivity or lost revenues we

the effect of time induced stress on financial decision making in real markets the case of traffic congestion abstract we study the role of stress induced by time constraints on investor decision making in real financial markets we use unexpected traffic congestion as a stress trigger our dependent variable is the slope of the implied volatility function ivf of options on russian trading system index rtsi futures at the left hand side of the volatility smile cf bollen and whaley 2004 controlling for relevant factors we find that this slope at the opening of the main trading session is higher subsequent to morning traffic jams suggesting that investors under stress assign higher weights to extreme loss scenarios this effect is economically exploitable before transaction costs

how much climate policy has cost for oecd countries abstract high economic cost of climate policy has attracted critical debate since the kyoto protocol however reliable empirical evidence of the abatement cost of green house gases across countries remains scant in this study we estimate the average yearly green house gas abatement costs per capita for a panel of 28 oecd countries in years 1990 2015 the marginal abatement costs are estimated using a novel data driven approach based on convex quantile regression compared to traditional frontier estimation methods the quantile approach takes into account a broader set of abatement options and is more robust to inefficiency noise and heteroscedasticity in empirical data the comparison of oecd countries shows that the actual abatement cost per capita has been very modest much lower than predicted in the late 1990s this result has profound policy implications calling for more ambitious climate change mitigation strategy in the future

trading mechanisms and stock returns an empirical investigation this paper examines the effects of the mechanism by which securities are traded on their price behavior we compare the behavior of open to open and close to close returns on nyse stocks given the differences in execution methods applied in the opening and closing transactions opening returns are found to exhibit greater dispersion greater deviations from normality and a more negative and significant autocorrelation pattern than closing returns we study the effects of the bid ask spread and the price adjustment process on the estimated return variances and covariances and discuss the associated biases we conclude that the trading mechanism has a significant effect on stock price behavior

mood induced variation in risk preferences abstract psychological research links good bad mood with increased decreased risk aversion this relation has been widely documented in experimental setups there has not been however a complementary analysis with real life decisions data this paper fills this gap by testing the relation between mood and risk attitude in capital markets to shed light on that relation we recover risk preferences from capital market data and employ accumulated evidence suggesting that people s mood is correlated with weather conditions corroborating established experimental evidence we find that good bad mood is associated with investors being less more willing to tolerate risk

toward a u s agricultural export policy for the 1980s in a recent issue of business week a special article on the restructuring of the american economy paid particular attention to the agricultural sector and how it likely would be the prime fuel for inflation in the 1980s the rationale behind this outlook was the projection that international demand for u s agricultural exports would continue to grow rapidly while a combination of slower domestic agricultural productivity growth and sharply increased production costs would temper a contemporaneous increase in output the article concluded by saying that we certainly will need a federal policy on exports and in the next few years there is going to be an intense debate on that p 74 the purpose of this article is to open such a debate on an appropriate u s agricultural export policy for the 1980s for the last decade agricultural exports have comprised on the average roughly 20 of the total value of u s exports agricultural imports on the other hand have sharply and continuously declined in relative importance over the same period from 15 of total u s imports in 1970 to 7 in 1980 the result has been a sharply growing agricultural trade surplus from 1 5 billion in 1970 to 12 6 billion in 1975 to 23 9 billion in 1980 compared to a widening nonagricultural trade deficit always in the red in the last decade and sharply increased in the last five years from 20 7 billion in 1976 to 47 2 billion in 1980 u s agricultural exports are largely concentrated in grains 42 6 of the total agricultural export value in 1979 80 soybeans and products 24 1 and cotton 6 7 while a variety of animal products and tobacco comprise the major part of the remainder u s agricultural imports on the other hand are less concentrated noncompetitive items with u s production like coffee cocoa rubber and bananas make up 41 8 of imports in 1979 80 among the supplementary imports the largest shares are occupied by beef and veal 18 9 of total supplementary imports by value in 1979 80 and sugar 14 9 the remainder being comprised of a wide variety of products of particular importance to trade and the a erican balance of payment position is the growing share of u s agricultural production that is exported table 1 shows proportions of he major agricultural products and the share of t tal u s agricultural production exported from 1965 66 to 1978 79 currently about half of the total agricultural production is exported while a decade ago the proportion was about one third the growing importance of trade for u s agriculture has implications that must be reckoned with in the 1980s

cost of energy and environmental policy in portuguese co2 abatement scenario analysis to 2020 abstract this paper quantifies the contribution of portuguese energy policies for total and marginal abatement costs mac for co2 emissions for 2020 the times pt optimisation model was used to derive mac curves from a set of policy scenarios including one or more of the following policies ban on nuclear power ban on new coal power plants without carbon sequestration and storage incentives to natural gas power plants and a cap on biomass use the different mac shows the policies effects in the potential for co2 abatement in 2020 in the most encompassing policy scenario with all current and planned policies is possible to abate only up to 35 of 1990 emissions at a cost below 23 t co2 in the more flexible policy scenarios it is possible to abate up to 10 of 1990 emissions below the same cost the total energy system costs are 10 13 higher if all policies are implemented 76 to 101 b roughly the equivalent to 2 01 2 65 of the 2005 gdp thus from a co2 emission mitigation perspective the existing policies introduce significant inefficiencies possibly related to other policy goals the ban on nuclear power is the instrument that has the most significant effect in mac

non parametric productivity analysis with undesirable outputs an application to the canadian pulp and paper industry this article extends the chavas cox approach to non parametric analysis by incorporating undesirable outputs to provide a more complete representation of the production technology inner and outer non parametric technology bounds are constructed the methods are illustrated with application to time series data for the canadian pulp and paper industry conventional measures that ignore changes in pollutant outputs underestimate true productivity growth further there is a large gap between estimates generated with reference to inner and outer bounds to the technology suggesting that researchers need to be aware of the limitations of results derived from analyses relying only on dea methods copyright 2001 oxford university press

influence of spillovers to australia on impacts of the international center for agricultural research in the dry areas abstract there is growing evidence of spillover effects to developed countries from the plant genetic improvement work of international agricultural research centers iarcs that nevertheless benefit the targeted developing countries this paper examines the modes in which such spillover effects from iarcs to developed countries have an impact on the overall benefits from the iarc system a case study of production spillovers in australia from icarda s work indicates a shift of benefits for the rest of the world from producers to consumers with overall benefits to the rest of the world marginally higher in the presence of spillovers these findings suggest spillovers to developed countries can enhance the impacts of the iarcs on developing countries though they can affect the distribution of benefits received

econometric estimation of a global spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology abstract an econometric approach using international and national yield trial data is employed to estimate a spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology the global spillover matrix is estimated based on international yield trial data from 1979 1980 to 1987 1988 that include 195 international trial locations and 209 wheat varieties the locations were classified across countries using the cimmyt s wheat megaenvironment system and varieties were classified by both their environmental and institutional origin the model gave good explanatory power and confirmed the location specificity hypothesis at least for the varieties developed by national programs nars the spillover matrix shows that nars varieties developed in the home environment generally perform better on average than varieties developed in other megaenvironments also the matrix is not symmetric cimmyt varieties perform better on average in irrigated and high rainfall environments than nars varieties developed for these environments the yield advantage of cimmyt varieties in many test megaenvironments indicates the potential of cimmyt varieties to spill over to these test megaenvironments results also indicate that national programs are efficient in selecting from among imported technologies analysis of international data is complemented by the analysis of country level data for pakistan and kenya that confirms the above results the country level analysis however indicates that cimmyt germplasm does not do so well in some sub environments such as the irrigated short duration environment the results of the spillover matrix have implications for the design of crop breeding programs both at the national and international levels information provided by the spillover matrix can be utilized by national programs to deploy their resources more efficiently by following a mixed strategy of direct importation of technology in some environments and local development of technologies in other environments which are unique to the country

the calculation of research benefits with linear and non linear specifications of the demand and supply reply this paper provides a comparison of research benefits for linear and nonlinear constant elasticity nlce specifications of supply and demand with a pivotal supply shift framework the comparison allows for a sensitivity test of results to different values for demand and supply elasticity the main finding is that the values of the gross annual research benefits calculated for the nlce specification are larger than those calculated for the linear specification with price elastic supply but are smaller with price inelastic supply the analysis suggests that the use of an nlce specification and a pivotal shift due to research is usually preferable to use of a linear supply curve with pivotal shift

the political economy of public research investment and commodity policies in agriculture an empirical study the paper tests a political economy theory of simultaneous government decision making on income redistribution through commodity policies and on public research investment in agriculture we use data from 37 countries on agricultural protection and public agricultural research expenditures pari the empirical results are consistent with the political economy hypotheses the analysis suggest that structural changes in the economy have important effects on the political incentives for governments not only to subsidize or tax farmers but also to invest in public agricultural research furthermore the analysis supports the hypotheses that the impact of such structural changes on government decision making on pari is non linear and conditional on other factors regarding the impact of political institutions the results suggest that more democracy neither leads to more distortionary transfers agricultural protection nor to lower investment in public goods pari

cost efficiency in u s corn production diewert s quadratic lemma is used to derive indexes of intertemporal and interregional cost efficiency and of economies of scale for a sample of u s corn regions using u s department of agriculture farm enterprise survey data the results indicate that intertemporal cost efficiency in u s corn production increased 1 3 per year on average between 1974 and 1983 regions in illinois and iowa have a competitive advantage in corn production over those in indiana and nebraska between 1974 and 1983 very large corn enterprises 500 1 000 acres were 4 8 more cost efficient than large enterprises 300 460 acres and 8 15 more efficient than medium size corn enterprises 175 290 acres

economic and environmental impacts of the kyoto protocol in 2003 the kyoto protocol which imposes legally binding greenhouse gas emission constraints on industrialized countries is likely to enter into force the protocol has been celebrated as a milestone in climate protection but standard economic theory casts doubt that it will go beyond symbolic policy in this paper we show that the final concretion of the kyoto protocol is consistent with the theoretical prediction kyoto more or less boils down to business as usual without significant compliance costs to ratifying parties jel classification d58 q43 q58 consequences economiques et environnementales du protocole de kyoto en 2003 le protocole de kyoto qui impose aux pays industrialises l obligation de reduire leurs emissions de gaz a effet de serre entrera probablement en vigueur si le protocole a ete accueilli comme un grand pas en avant dans le combat pour proteger l environnement la theorie economique jette un regard sceptique sur la portee reelle d un tel accord et le considere comme un geste symbolique dans ce memoire on montre que la concretisation finale de l accord de kyoto s arrime aux predictions theoriques kyoto n est rien de plus que business as usual et n impliquera pas de couts significatifs pour les parties qui ont signe le protocole

resource use and technological progress in agriculture a dynamic general equilibrium analysis we analyze the global effects of economic and population growth and the impact of a slowdown in agricultural total factor productivity tfp on agriculture and forest resources using a dynamic multi region computable general equilibrium model with land use and cover detail given the current consensus about the growth of the world economy our results suggest that food security will not be threatened and agricultural activities will not encroach on forest resources over the next decade a slowdown in agricultural tfp growth might lead to higher crop prices in all regions with south east asia facing the steepest increases a slowdown in agricultural tfp growth also might be accompanied by higher conversion rates of forestland to farmland as well as by greater environmental or ecological damages on the remaining forestland

nash marginal abatement cost estimation of air pollutant emissions using the stochastic semi nonparametric frontier abstract emissions trading or cap and trade is a market based approach providing economic incentives for achieving reductions in the emissions of pollutants marginal abatement costs mac also termed shadow prices of air pollution emissions provide valuable guidelines to support environmental regulatory policies for co2 so2 and nox the key contributors to climate change smog and acid rain this study estimates the marginal abatement cost of undesirable outputs with respect to the nash equilibrium on the stochastic semi nonparametric envelopment of data stoned in an imperfectly competitive market considering an endogenous price function of electricity the mixed complementarity problem micp is formulated to identify the nash equilibrium in a production possibility set the proposed model addresses the four issues of mac estimation in the existing literature applying the proposed method to an empirical study of 33 coal fired power plants operating in china in 2013 shows that stoned provides a robust frontier that is not sensitive to the outlier and the proposed interval of mac estimation validates the shadow prices corresponding to the nash equilibrium in an imperfectly competitive market

option mispricing around nontrading periods we find that option returns are significantly lower over nontrading periods the vast majority of which are weekends our evidence suggests that nontrading returns cannot be explained by risk but rather are the result of widespread and highly persistent option mispricing driven by the incorrect treatment of stock return variance during periods of market closure the size of the effect implies that the broad spectrum of finance research involving option prices should account for nontrading effects our study further suggests how alternative industry practices could improve the efficiency of option markets in a meaningful way

estimates of the costs of kyoto marrakesh versus the mckibbin wilcoxen blueprint in this paper we update our earlier estimates of the cost of the kyoto protocol using the g cubed model taking into account the new sink allowances from recent negotiations as well as allowing for multiple gases and new land clearing estimates we then compare the protocol to an alternative policy outlined in mckibbin et al brookings policy brief no 17 june the brookings institution washington 1997 climate change policy after kyoto a blueprint for a realistic approach the brookings institution washington 2002a j econom perspect 16 2 2002b 107 that does not impose rigid emissions targets we focus particular attention on the sensitivity of compliance costs under each policy to unexpected changes in future economic conditions to illustrate the issue we evaluate the policies under two plausible alternative assumptions about a single aspect of the future world economy the rate of productivity growth in russia we find that moderate growth in russia would raise the cost of the kyoto protocol by as much as 50 percent but would have little effect on the cost of the alternative policy we conclude that the kyoto protocol is inherently unstable because unexpected future events could raise compliance costs substantially and place enormous pressure on governments to abrogate the agreement the alternative policy would be far more stable because it does not subject future governments to adverse shocks in compliance costs

equity in climate change an analytical review how global emissions reduction targets can be achieved equitably is a key issue in climate change discussions this paper presents an analytical framework to encompass contributions to the literature on equity in climate change and highlights the consequences in terms of future emissions allocations of different approaches to equity progressive cuts relative to historic levels for example 80 percent by industrial countries and 20 percent by developing countries in effect accord primacy to adjustment costs and favor large current emitters such as the united states canada australia oil exporters and china in contrast principles of equal per capita emissions historic responsibility and ability to pay favor some large and poor developing countries such as india indonesia and the philippines but hurt industrial countries as well as many other developing countries the principle of preserving future development opportunities has the appeal that it does not constrain developing countries in the future by a problem that they did not largely cause in the past but it shifts the burden of meeting climate change goals entirely to industrial countries given the strong conflicts of interest in defining equity in emission allocations it may be desirable to shift the emphasis of international cooperation toward generating a low carbon technology revolution equity considerations would then play a role not in allocating a shrinking emissions pie but in informing the relative contributions of countries to generating such a pie enlarging revolution

the gains from research into tradable commodities this paper develops a model for assessing the aggregate level and distribution of the benefits of reseach into tradable commodities it estimates gains to australia and to the rest of the world from research into the wool and wheat industries

potential benefits of agricultural research and extension in peru the benefits of agricultural research and extension are examined in an ex ante consumer producer surplus framework for five commodities in peru the effects of demand shifts over time and government pricing policies on research and extension benefits are considered data for the analysis include the results of research and extension questionnaires administered at seven sites in peru the projected rates of return to research and extension indicate substantial returns to public investments

tempus fugit time pressure in risky decisions we study the effects of time pressure on risky decisions for pure gain prospects pure loss prospects and mixed prospects involving both gains and losses in two experiments we find that time pressure has no effect on risk attitudes for gains but increases risk aversion for losses for mixed prospects subjects become simultaneously more loss averse and more gain seeking under time pressure depending on the framing of the prospects the results suggest the importance of aspiration levels and thus the overall probability to break even under time pressure we discuss the implications of our findings for decision making situations that involve time pressure

market distortions and benefits from research the benefits from cost reducing research and their distribution under a range of price policies are compared with those that would arise in the absence of the policies while any price policy affects the distribution of research benefits the net national or world benefits may be reduced lef unchanged or increased depending on the nature of the policy and the significance of the country in the world market for the commodity some implications for decisions on price policies and for distortions in incentives for the allocation of resources to research are raised

analyzing trade offs in international climate policy options the case of the green climate fund summary we investigate the trade offs between economic growth and low carbon targets for developing and developed countries in the period up to 2035 policy options are evaluated with an original version of the dynamic cge model gdyne abatement costs appear to be strongly detrimental to economic growth for developing countries we investigate options for reducing these costs that are consistent with the current negotiations we show that the green climate fund financed through a levy on carbon taxation can benefit all parties and large benefits are associated with investment of the green climate fund to foster energy efficiency in developing countries

the costs of the kyoto protocol in the european union we estimate reference co2 emission projections in the european union and quantify the economic impacts of the kyoto commitment on member states we consider the case where each eumember individually meets a co 2 emissions target applying a country wide cap and trade system to meet the target but without trade among countries we use a version of the mit emissions prediction and policy analysis eppa model here disaggregated to separately include 9 european community countries and commercial and household transportation sectors we compare our results with that of four energy economic models that have provided detailed analyses of european climate change policy in the absence of specific additional climate policy measures the eppa reference projections of carbon emissions increase by 14 from 1990 levels the eu wide target under the kyoto protocol to the framework convention on climate change is a reduction in emissions to 8 below 1990 levels eppa emissions projections are similar to other recent modeling results but there are underlying differences in energy and carbon intensities among the projections if eucountries were to individually meet the euallocation of the community wide carbon cap specified in the kyoto protocol we find using eppa that carbon prices vary from 91 in the united kingdom to 385 in denmark welfare costs range from 0 6 to 5 r 2002 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

equity and distributional implications of climate change this paper looks at the climate change problem from an equity perspective it compares utilitarian approaches with ones based on rights or capabilities it argues that few of the proposals that have been discussed in the literature have an ethical basis while those that do have a number of problems the paper looks at the practicalities of addressing the equity problem in international negotiations two specific dimensions of the equity problem in the context of climate change are explored further in the paper those relating to uncertainty and those relating to discounting

the calculation of returns to research in distorted markets reply abstract most of the emperical literature calculating rates of return to publicly sponsored research assumes that research is the only relevant government intervention for most countries this assumption is untenable this paper shows that improperly measuring government inducedmarket distortions can severely bias research rate of return calculations if the interaction between successful research and other government interventions increases the cost of the other interventions then neglecting market distortions unambigously increases the calculated rate of return three examples of government induced distortions show that the magnitude of the upward bias in calculated rates of return can be extremely large in some cases more than 100 percentage points a normative implication is that governments should account for interactions between research and price interventions when determining research support levels a positive implication is that existing government research funding patterns are more readily explainable as reasonable behavior by a government that accounts for these interactions

the politics of underinvestment in agricultural research this paper develops a political economy framework that determines the factors causing underinvestment in public research expenditures governments are unable to fully compensate for unequal income distribution effects of research because of either their inability to make credible commitments or ofdeadweight costs associated with compensation

the calculation of returns to research in distorted markets comment abstract in a recent article oehmke reported that a high internal rate of return for investment in research when the interaction between research and price policy costs was disregarded could become very low or even negative when the effects of research on the costs of price policy were considered in this paper the social returns from research in the presence of the price policies considered by oehmke are reexamined using a simple geometric approach the analysis suggests that an output subsidy in a small importing economy an output subsidy in a closed economy and a target price in a large exporting economy will on oehmke s assumptions cause only small reductions in the internal rate of return from investment in research this implies that the apparent underinvestment by governments in agricultural research cannot be explained away by a large upward bias known to governments in measured rates of return due to failure to account for interactions between research and the costs of price policy measures

losing sleep at the market the daylight saving anomaly reply motivated by the recent flurry of activity in sleep research this paper explores the connection between sleep disruptions following spring and fall clock shifts associated with daylight savings time and equity returns it is shown that the weekend effect in the form of the lower than expected friday to monday returns is particularly pronounced for the two weekends involving daylight savings clock changes this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item