information acquisition and under diversification if an investor wants to form a portfolio of risky assets and can exert effort to collect information on the future value of these assets before he invests which assets should he learn about the best assets to acquire information about are ones the investor expects to hold but the assets the investor holds depend on the information he observes we build a framework to solve jointly for investment and information choices with general preferences and information cost functions although the optimal research strategies depend on preferences and costs the main result is that the investor who can first collect information systematically deviates from holding a diversified portfolio information acquisition can rationalize investing in a diversified fund and a concentrated set of assets an allocation often observed but usually deemed anomalous copyright wiley blackwell

a country specific point of view on international diversification abstract this paper adds a country specific point of view on diversification among financial markets previous results indicate that emerging markets may generally exhibit higher diversification effects in comparison to developed markets due to lower market linkages however the question remains which markets in particular may be more or less attractive among emerging and developed markets as well as in a world market setting to the best of our knowledge this is the first empirical study which analyzes this question beyond continental levels only we analyze diversification by means of optimal portfolio allocations and in terms of tail risk reductions we also include investors tendency to overweight regional investments home bias our results show that malaysia switzerland jordan chile or singapore are markets with high diversification potential on the contrary argentina brazil and south korea exhibit high individual risk levels in combination with high market linkages

is international diversification really beneficial abstract previous research claims that low constant correlations among international stock indices create substantial risk reduction from diversification we contend that only using constant correlations is too simplistic an approach we examine international diversification by 1 using conditional correlations 2 evaluating tail risk including the effect of skewness and kurtosis and 3 examining the possible tradeoffs of standard deviation with correlation skewness and kurtosis we show that conclusions concerning diversification based solely on constant correlations across markets can be misleading since the diversification benefits are time varying are affected by non normality and depend on the benchmark country employed finally tradeoffs do exist between standard deviation and the other risk factors

unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion we propose an identified structural garch model to disentangle the dynamics of financial market crises we distinguish between the hypersensitivity of a domestic market in crisis to news from foreign non crisis markets and the contagion imported to a tranquil domestic market from foreign crises the model also enables us to connect unobserved structural shocks with their source markets using variance decompositions and to compare the size and dynamics of impulses during crises periods with tranquil period impulses to illustrate we apply the method to data from the 1997 1998 asian financial crisis which consists of a complicated set of interacting crises we find significant hypersensitivity and contagion between these markets but also show that links may strengthen or weaken impulse response functions for an equally weighted equity portfolio show the increasing dominance of korean and hong kong shocks during the crises and covariance responses demonstrate multiple layers of contagion effects

is volatility clustering of asset returns asymmetric abstract volatility clustering is a well known stylized feature of financial asset returns this paper investigates asymmetric pattern in volatility clustering by employing a univariate copula approach of chen and fan 2006 using daily realized kernel volatilities constructed from high frequency data from stock and foreign exchange markets we find evidence that volatility clustering is highly nonlinear and strongly asymmetric in that clusters of high volatility occur more often than clusters of low volatility to the best of our knowledge this paper is the first one to address and uncover this phenomenon in particular the asymmetry in volatility clustering is found to be more pronounced in the stock markets than in the foreign exchange markets further the volatility clusters are shown to remain persistent for over a month and asymmetric across different time periods our findings have important implications for risk management a simulation study indicates that models which accommodate asymmetric volatility clustering can significantly improve the out of sample forecasts of value at risk

comovement in international equity markets a sectoral view abstract we investigate shifts in correlation patterns among international equity returns at the market level as well as the industry level we develop a novel bivariate garch model for equity returns with a smoothly time varying correlation and then derive a lagrange multiplier statistic to test the constant correlation hypothesis directly applying the test to weekly data from germany japan the uk and the us in the period 1980 2000 we find that correlations among the german uk and us stock markets have doubled whereas japanese correlations have remained the same both dates of change and speeds of adjustment vary widely across countries and sectors

trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

a dynamic model of entry deterrence it has been recognized in a number of recent studies on oligopoly and potential competition that a firm may deter entry by engaging in different types of irreversible investments this paper reports on an investigation of this issue in a dynamic setting the established firm is assumed to build up a stock of knowledge and goodwill by investing in r d and sales promotion and these stocks are assumed to erode over time the established firm then has to decide whether or not to deter entry and eventually when to permit a potential competitor to enter the market

foreign equity participation under incomplete information abstract this paper demonstrates how an interaction between ownership rules and trade policy provides a rationale for a host government to impose local equity requirement ler on a foreign multinational it presents a model where in the presence of an import tariff ler can serve as an effective instrument for a host government in removing any incentive for the multinational to mimic an inefficient firm when the government does not have complete information on the cost of the multinational s foreign unit it is shown that the ler can increase national welfare by removing possible distortions under incomplete information it is also shown that product market competition lowers the ler

bargaining power ownership and profitability of transnational corporations in developing countries as the bargaining power of the transnational corporations tncs in the sample increased relative to the bargaining power of the host country and as the desire of the tncs for a high level of equity ownership increased the percent equity ownership of the tncs in their subsidiaries increased the relationship between percent equity ownership and subsidiary success from the tncs viewpoint however was j shaped high and low levels of equity ownership were associated with high levels of success control of critical operational variables by the tnc was directly related to success

the structure and degree of dependence a quantile regression approach abstract the copula function defines the degree of dependence and the structure of dependence this paper proposes an alternative framework to decompose the dependence using quantile regression we demonstrate that the methodology provides a detailed picture of dependence including asymmetric and non linear relationships in addition changes in the degree or structure of dependence can be modeled and tested for each quantile of the distribution the empirical part applies the framework to three different sets of financial time series and demonstrates substantial differences in dependence patterns among asset classes and through time the analysis of 54 global equity markets shows that detailed information about the structure of dependence is crucial to adequately assess the benefits of diversification in normal times and crisis times

use of minority and 50 50 joint ventures by united states multinationals during the 1970s the interaction of host country policies corporate strategies this article examines geographical sectoral and corporate trends in the use of minority and 50 50 joint ventures by u s multinational manufacturing and mining firms in less developed countries ldcs during the 1970s it is based primarily on data found in the harvard multinational enterprise data base as updated through the mid 1970s and supplemented with corporate performance data for the 1975 1980 period from a new international competitive analysis ica database developed with support from the general electric foundation

reputation and imperfect information abstract a common observation in the informal literature of economics and elsewhere is that is multistage games players may seek early in the game to acquire a reputation for being tough or benevolent or something else but this phenomenon is not observed in some formal game theoretic analyses of finite games such as selten s finitely repeated chain store game or in the finitely repeated prisoners dilemma we reexamine selten s model adding to it a small amount of imperfect or incomplete information about players payoffs and we find that this addition is sufficient to give rise to the reputation effect that one intuitively expects

east west joint ventures and buyback contracts abstract contractual joint ventures cjvs and the buyback form of countertrade are popular methods that socialist countries use to attract foreign investment in this paper we explore some reasons why this is so and also explain two predominant characteristics of these contracts the existence of sharing rules and minimum standard requirements on inputs the model stresses the incentive problems involved when a socialist host country which does not allow foreign direct investment uses a cjv to obtain the fruits of some knowledge based production process from a multinational enterprise

the economics of joint ventures in less developed countries the paper examines the microeconomic partial equilibrium behavior of joint ventures established between transnational corporations and domestic partners in less developed countries it focuses on issues relating to resource allocation and profit distribution under various institutional scenarios the analysis places special emphasis on the role of bargaining power transfer pricing stock ownership and profit shares of the parties and the responsiveness of joint ventures to national development goals some of the results apply to wholly owned subsidiaries of transnational corporations local firms and licensing arrangements which emerge as special cases

determinants of governance structure in alliances the role of strategic task and partner uncertainties research in transaction cost economics and structural sociology has emphasized the role of opportunism and trust in the choice between equity and non equity governance forms in alliances this paper suggests that the uncertainty surrounding partner cooperation is not straightforwardly predictive of governance structure in alliances instead task uncertainty and strategic uncertainty associated with the activities performed within alliances induce coordination and adaptation requirements that are important determinants of alliance governance independently of partner uncertainty support for this view is provided based on a 12 year panel of alliances formed in the us telecommunications entertainment and computer industries

partner contributions as predictors of equity share in international joint ventures the type of expertise that a company contributes to a joint venture may affect the amount of equity that it owns this research observes the ownership patterns associated with four common combinations of partner expertise in international joint ventures the results rank company assets with respect to the contributor s ability to negotiate majority ownership in the original joint venture contract and that company s tendency to buy up equity from the partner later on

growth entry and exit of firms a dynamic model of industry equilibrium is presented which shows how growth entry and exit of firms are interrelated by taking into account the fact that a firm s profitability is to some degree subject to random shocks the simultaneous occurrence of entry and exit can be explained formally in addition by also taking internal growth costs into account it is shown that excess profits can persist in long run equilibrium even in perfect competition and with constant returns to scale the model is consistent with the facts that industry growth comes mainly from existing firms and that most firms grow at rates which do not systematically depend on their scale of operations i introduction

information markets and the comovement of asset prices traditional asset pricing models predict that covariance between prices of difierent assets should be lower than what we observe in the data this model generates high covariance within a rational expectations framework by introducing markets for information about asset payofis when information is costly rational investors will not buy information about all assets they will learn about a subset because information production has high flxed costs competitive producers charge more for low demand information than for high demand information a price that declines in quantity makes investors want to purchase a common subset of information if investors price many assets using a common subset of information then a shock to one signal is passed on as a common shock to many asset prices these common shocks to asset prices generate excess covariance the cross sectional and time series properties of asset price covariance are consistent with this explanation

host country policy transfer pricing and ownership distribution in international joint ventures a theoretical analysis abstract this paper develops a simple model of an international joint venture in which the ownership shares are endogenously determined as the outcome of nash bargaining between a multinational firm and a host firm it shows how tax subsidy policy by the host country s government and transfer pricing of inputs by the multinational firm may influence the equity distribution of the joint venture insofar as the optimal level of these policies is dependent on the primitives the model generates empirical hypotheses regarding the impact of the primitives on the equity distribution

the limits of diversification when losses may be large abstract recent results in value at risk analysis show that for extremely heavy tailed risks with unbounded distribution support diversification may increase value at risk and that generally it is difficult to construct an appropriate risk measure for such distributions we further analyze the limitations of diversification for heavy tailed risks we provide additional insight in two ways first we show that similar non diversification results are valid for a large class of risks with bounded support as long as the risks are concentrated on a sufficiently large interval the required length of the support depends on the number of risks available and on the degree of heavy tailedness second we relate the value at risk approach to more general risk frameworks we argue that in markets for risky assets where the number of assets is limited compared with the bounded distribution support of the risks unbounded heavy tailed risks may provide a reasonable approximation we suggest that this type of analysis may have a role in explaining various types of market failures in markets for assets with possibly large negative outcomes

the stability of joint ventures reciprocity and competitive rivalry the focus of the following empirical analysis is the influence of reciprocity and long term relationships on the stability of joint ventures these cooperative incentives are offset by industry structural conditions which may promote competitive rivalry among the partners to separate these effects on joint venture survival the hypothesized relationships are proxied by variables drawn from industry and questionnaire data and estimated under a hazard model specification a theoretical implication of the findings is to suggest a shift of attention from the transaction to the economic relationship as the unit of analysis copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

equity ownership in international joint ventures the impact of source country factors this study examines the impact of four source country factors on the equity ownership in international joint ventures ijvs these factors are exchange rate cost of borrowing export capability and management orientation based on a sample of 8 078 ijvs in china this study shows that equity ownership tends to be higher for parent firms from a source country with strong currency low cost of borrowing strong export capability and high uncertainty avoidance

determinants of the share of equity sought in cross border acquisitions the extent of ownership in foreign market entry is an important topic in the entry mode literature yet the determinants of the share of ownership sought in cross border acquisitions cbas have not received much research attention drawing on multiple theoretical explanations we develop and test hypotheses on factors influencing the share of equity sought by foreign firms in cbas findings based on a sample of cbas by us firms show that the share of equity sought is influenced by many factors including the cost of valuing local firm assets difficulty in integrating local firm managers in culturally distant countries the cost of separating desired assets from the rest of the local firm and the cost of resource commitment under exogenous uncertainty

joint venture buy outs under uncertainty this paper provides a theory of joint venture buy outs in the presence of demand uncertainty in an infinite horizon framework with demand uncertainty we consider a foreign firm s decision on whether to form a joint venture or to open a fully owned subsidiary without the possibility of future share adjustment the foreign firm enters the market through a joint venture if the host country firm helps to reduce the uncertainty significantly consequently the firm enters at an earlier point in time compared to the situation in which opening a fully owned subsidiary is the only option to the firm the possibility of future share adjustment in the joint venture further increases the incentive to speed up foreign investment although the possibility of share adjustment results in a joint venture buy out and can reduce the future profits of the host country firm it may increase host country welfare by attracting foreign investment at an earlier point in time we show the implications of learning in the joint venture 2011 the authors the journal of industrial economics

explaining ijv survival in a transitional economy through social exchange and knowledge based perspectives in this study we combine social exchange and knowledge based perspectives to develop a general path model of ijv survival we further refine our expectations by considering the transitional economic context of our study and the somewhat unique managerial values resulting from the legacy of marxist ideology results from structural equation modeling suggest that an imbalance in the management control structure between the parents leads to parental conflict and an increased likelihood of ijv failure an imbalance in the ownership control structure however had no influence on conflict or survival in general support from the foreign parent is positively related to ijv learning and ijv survival however higher levels of technical support provided by the foreign parent to the ijv reduced the level of parental conflict whereas management support had no effect on conflict our results suggest some dilemmas for firms pursuing ijvs in transitional economies although the foreign parent often contributes critical resources to the ijv providing it with bargaining power and a high level of influence an imbalance in management control between the partners may ultimately be detrimental to ijv survival copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

instabilities of strategic alliances an internal tensions perspective the instabilities of strategic alliances have been examined in the literature through a number of theoretical approaches alliance instabilities refer to major changes or dissolutions of alliances that are unplanned from the perspective of one or more partners although the literature identifies certain characteristics of strategic alliances that may lead to their unplanned dissolution the extent of our understanding of this subject appears to be fragmented and incomplete in this article we propose a comprehensive framework for adequately understanding alliance instabilities based on the notion of internal tensions we suggest that strategic alliances are sites in which conflicting forces develop and which can be viewed as being constituted by three key pairs of competing forces namely cooperation versus competition rigidity versus flexibility and short term versus long term orientation this tensions framework helps us in explaining the intrinsic vulnerability of alliances in terms of a wide range of internal contradictions and enables us to examine in an integrated manner the incidence dynamics and eventual dissipation of the inherent instabilities we discuss the interrelationships among the different internal tensions and their impacts on different types of strategic alliances we also examine the termination of alliances through mergers acquisitions and dissolution finally we suggest ways to empirically test the various ideas and propositions developed here and indicate directions for further research

international diversification strategies revisited from the risk perspective following roll roll r 1992 industrial structure and comparative behaviour of international stock market indices journal of finance 47 3 42 and heston and rouwenhorst heston s l rouwenhorst g k 1994 does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification journal of financial economics 36 3 27 researchers have decomposed stock returns into country and industry components evidence suggests that industry components have become more important in recent years but the reasons for this are unclear existing research concentrated mainly on stock returns in industrial countries in this paper we consider instead the decomposition of stock risks within emerging equity markets we provide a rationale for this procedure and its relationship to return decompositions the results provide new firm specific evidence on the debate over country and industry components their stability over time and the implications for portfolio diversification

contagion as a domino effect in global stock markets this paper shows that stock market contagion occurs as a domino effect where confined local crashes evolve into more widespread crashes using a novel framework based on ordered logit regressions we model the occurrence of local regional and global crashes as a function of their past occurrences and financial variables we find significant evidence that global crashes do not occur abruptly but are preceded by local and regional crashes besides this form of contagion interdependence shows up by the effect of interest rates bond returns and stock market volatility on crash probabilities when it comes to forecasting global crashes our model outperforms a binomial model for global crashes only

a generalized theorem for joint ventures and licensing negotiations traditional theory has viewed direct investment licensing and trade mainly as foreign market entry alternatives however a growing number of overseas ventures are being formed as a mix of the 3 methods where a joint venture partner may be compensated by a package involving some return on equity investment plus royalties plus margins on components or finished product traded with the joint venture corporation this paper presents an algebraic model for the negotiations position of each partner in a prospective venture the trade offs between the 3 compensation types are complex as they involve non zero sum games the methodology is extended to enable a host government to calculate for each alternative arrangement the foreign exchange cost tax revenues or other national costs and benefits the model makes some unconventional recommendations for corporate strategy and government policy

the characteristics and performance of korean joint ventures in ldcs little has been reported on joint ventures between firms from newly industrialized countries and developing countries this paper examines twelve characteristics of a sample of korean firms with partners in developing countries ldcs and contrasts them with existing research where a developed country firms have linked with firms in other developed countries and b developed country firms have linked with local firms in developing countries as part of the analysis ten hypotheses were formulated and tested

international diversification an extreme value approach abstract international diversification has costs and benefits depending on the degree of asset dependence we study international diversification with two dependence measures correlations and extreme dependence we discover that dependence has typically increased over time and document mixed evidence on heavy tails in individual countries moreover we uncover three additional findings related to dependence first the timing of downside risk differs depending on the region surprisingly recent latin american returns exhibit little downside risk second latin america exhibits a great deal of correlation complexity third according to the empirical results correlation does not vary with returns but extreme dependence does vary monotonically with regional returns our results are consistent with a tradeoff between international diversification and systemic risk they also suggest international limits to diversification and that international investors demand some compensation for joint downside risk during extreme events

the copula garch model of conditional dependencies an international stock market application abstract modeling the dependency between stock market returns is a difficult task when returns follow a complicated dynamics when returns are non normal it is often simply impossible to specify the multivariate distribution relating two or more return series in this context we propose a new methodology based on copula functions which consists in estimating first the univariate distributions and then the joining distribution in such a context the dependency parameter can easily be rendered conditional and time varying we apply this methodology to the daily returns of four major stock markets our results suggest that conditional dependency depends on past realizations for european market pairs only for these markets dependency is found to be more widely affected when returns move in the same direction than when they move in opposite directions modeling the dynamics of the dependency parameter also suggests that dependency is higher and more persistent between european stock markets

performance and survival of joint ventures with non conventional ownership structures the international joint venture jv literature has focused on two parent jvs formed between one foreign and one local firm yet other types of jvs exist this paper identifies four distinct forms of jvs based on the jv partners nationality and equity affiliation these are i jvs that are formed between affiliated home country based firms ii jvs that are formed between unaffiliated home country based firmsl iii jvs that are formed between home country based and local firms and iv jvs that are formed between home country and third country based firms our analysis of 737 japanese jvs in asia demonstrates that the conventionally assumed form of jv represented only 30 percent of the total further each of the four jv forms significantly differed in terms of incidence performance and survival likelihood

do food and oil prices co move abstract this paper studies co movements between world oil prices and global prices for corn soybean and wheat using copulas several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time varying dependence parameters were considered empirical results for weekly data from january 1998 to april 2011 showed weak oil food dependence and no extreme market dependence between oil and food prices these results support the neutrality of agricultural commodity markets to the effects of changes in oil prices and non contagion between the crude oil and agricultural markets however dependence increased significantly in the last three years of the sampling period even though upper tail dependence remained insignificant indicating that food price spikes are not caused by positive extreme oil price changes these results have implications for policy design risk management and hedging strategies

knowledge diffusion market segmentation and technological catch up the case of the telecommunication industry in china abstract this paper examines the growth of technological capability in the telecommunication industry in china we apply a modified version of lee and lim s lee k lim c 2001 the technological regimes catch up and leapfrogging findings from the korean industries research policy vol 30 model of technological learning and catching up using the three cases of the shanghai bell the cit led r d consortium and indigenous companies such as huawei we analyze how the catching up in the telecommunication industry occurred we find that the important factors in the catch up are the strategy of trading market for technology the knowledge diffusion from shanghai bell both to the r d consortium and to huawei and industrial promotion by the government as a condition for successful catch up the paper points out that the technological regime of the telephone switches is featured by a more predictable technological trajectory and a lower cumulativeness these conditions and strategies helped the chinese firms to achieve a stage skipping catch up namely by skipping the stage of analogue electronic switches to jump to digital electronic switches

imitative innovation and international joint ventures a dynamic analysis abstract in this paper we deal with some dynamic issues of international joint venture in the context of a developing country we provide a rationale for international joint venture formation as well as its subsequent instability where instability is interpreted as payoff readjustments between the partners in the venture although the joint venture is formed in response to government restrictions on foreign equity holdings in the first period its subsequent instability is caused by both the change in government policy as well as the outcome of imitative technological innovation undertaken by the host partner it is also shown that uncertainty about the government policy in the second period plays an important role in the formation of joint venture in the first period

a behavioral perspective on negotiating international alliance this study examines the influence tactics of senior u s executives in negotiating international business alliances the strategy literature on alliances and the behavioral literature on negotiations were incorporated into a behavioral model of alliance negotiations constructs identified from transaction cost power dependence and game theories were integrated and linked to hypotheses describing negotiators influence tactics in alliance negotiations in examining eighty three alliance negotiations negotiator trust perception of a partner firm s alternatives conflict frame time horizon and cultural distance were found to affect negotiators tactics

determinants of success in international strategic alliances evidence from the global aerospace industry this paper presents the results of a study linking the performance of international joint ventures and alliances set up in the global aerospace industry to their strategic and organizational features in a first stage an empirically based taxonomy of the observed alliances is generated then the economic performance of various types of alliances is evaluated on the basis of industry expert opinions and the difference in performance of different alliance types is tested

the motives for international acquisitions capability procurements strategic considerations and the role of ownership structures multinationals can start up greenfield entities or acquire existing firms to enter foreign nations regardless of the choice of greenfield investment vs acquisition they can control full equity i e wholly owned subsidiaries or share ownership with local partners i e joint ventures depending on the stake taken in the targets therefore international acquisitions can be classified into two major categories full or partial although this distinction is missing in most previous studies in this paper i propose that the motives for acquisitions vs greenfield investments are specific to whether entries are made through full or partial ownership in that full acquisitions are driven mostly by capability procurements whereas partial acquisitions are motivated by other strategic considerations by splitting a sample of japanese investments in the us into two sub regimes the study has found that the decision on joint ventures vs wholly owned subsidiaries dictates the determinants that shape the choice between greenfield and acquisitive entries there is also evidence that japanese investors self select the decision on full or partial ownership to justify the strategy that they have chosen to enter the us these findings offer new insights into the role of ownership structures in shaping the choice of entry strategies

dependence structure between the equity market and the foreign exchange market a copula approach abstract this paper investigates the dependence structure between the equity market and the foreign exchange market by using copulas in particular several copulas with different dependence structure are compared and used to directly model the underlying dependence structure we find that there exists significant symmetric upper and lower tail dependence between the two financial markets and the dependence remains significant but weaker after the launch of the euro our findings have important implications for both global investment risk management and international asset pricing by taking into account joint tail risk

portfolio optimization in the presence of dependent financial returns with long memory a copula based approach abstract in this paper we seek to examine the effect of the presence of long memory on the dependence structure between financial returns and on portfolio optimization first we focus on the dependence structure using copulas to select the best copula in addition to the goodness of fit tests we employ a graphical method based on visual comparison of the fitted copula density and the smoothed copula density estimated by wavelets moreover we check the stability of the copula parameter the empirical results show that the long memory affects the dependence structure second we analyze the impact of this dependence structure on the optimal portfolio we propose a new approach based on minimizing the conditional value at risk and assuming that the dependence structure is modeled by the copula parameter the empirical results show that our approach outperforms the traditional minimizing variance approach where the dependence structure is represented by the linear correlation coefficient

strategic entry deterrence in analyzing deterrence of large scale entry two classes of entry barriers may be distinguished an innocent entry barrier is unintentionally erected as a side effect of innocent profit maximization in contrast a strategic entry barrier is purposely erected to reduce the possibility of entry two types of innocent barriers may also be distinguished a postentry absolute advantage has the property that if entry did occur the established firm would be at a profit advantage over the entrant examples are superior technology or product design patents and lower input prices a preentry asymmetry advantage arises from the fundamental preentry asymmetry between established firm and potential entrant before the entrant makes his entry decision the established firm has already committed resources this prior existence gives first move advantages the preentry asymmetry is independent of symmetry or asymmetry in the rules the equilibrium concept of the postentry game that might ensue even if the postentry game will be played according to nash cournot or entrant as leader rules the preentry leadership

commodity and equity markets some stylized facts from a copula approach abstract in this paper we propose to identify the dependence structure that exists between returns on equity and commodity futures and its development over the past 20 years the key point is that we do not impose any dependence structure but let the data select it to do so we model the dependence between commodity metal agriculture and energy and stock markets using a flexible approach that allows us to investigate whether the co movement is i symmetrical and frequent ii a symmetrical and mostly present during extreme events and iii asymmetrical and mostly present during extreme events we also allow for this dependence to be time varying from january 1990 to february 2012 our analysis uncovers three major stylised facts first we find that the dependence between commodity and stock markets is time varying symmetrical and occurs most of the time as opposed to mostly during extreme events second not allowing for time varying parameters in the dependence distribution generates a bias towards an evidence of tail dependence similarly considering only tail dependence may lead to false evidence of asymmetry third a growing co movement between industrial metals and equity markets is identified as early as 2003 this co movement spreads to all commodity classes and becomes unambiguously stronger with the global financial crisis after fall 2008

r d intensity and international joint venture performance in an emerging market moderating effects of market focus and ownership structure in this study we examine the contingent relationship between r d intensity and performance of international joint ventures ijvs in an emerging market context based on teece s 1986 arguments regarding the appropriability of innovation we identify two types of appropriability hazard related to ijvs r d activities in this context local market related and local partner related hazards we argue that a positive relationship between r d intensity and ijv performance is more likely to occur if these appropriability hazard can be mitigated results using a sample of manufacturing ijvs in china provide support for these arguments we find that r d intensity is positively related to performance in export market focused ijvs but not in local market focused ijvs in addition using a configuration approach we find that r d intensity is positively related to performance in ijvs that have an export market focus and in which the multinational companies mncs have a majority ownership but not in other market focus ownership structure configurations these findings contribute to our knowledge of r d activities of mncs overseas subsidiaries

ownership patterns of u s joint ventures abroad and the liberalization of foreign government regulations in the 1980s evidence from the benchmark surveys data from the benchmark surveys of the commerce department show the beginning of a global liberalization in government restrictions on foreign equity in the 1980s this was manifested in a small but unmistakable across the board reduction in the share of 50 50 and minority affiliates out of all u s affiliates in a country across countries there remains a huge variation in this proportion and the second part of the paper seeks to statistically explain this variation in a cross sectional regression analysis

bargaining power of multinationals and host governments one of the outcomes of negotiation between multinationals and host governments in developing countries the extent of foreign ownership of subsidiaries is influenced by the bargaining power of the two parties foreign ownership measured in various ways appears to be affected by the level of technology of the multinational the degree to which a multinational attempts to differentiate its products the extent to which a subsidiary s output is exported to other parts of the multinational the diversity of products offered by the multinational and the extent of competition by other multinationals the relationship between some of these variables and ownership is not a simple one one variable that others have mentioned as probably affecting bargaining power size of the investment in question appears not to play a significant role in government policies toward ownership but many large projects tend to be located in countries that have lenient ownership policies

dynamic entry deterrence in the uk pathology services market this paper describes work on a dynamic model of entry deterrence applied to the uk national health service nhs market for pathology services the model based on a game theoretical framework is concerned with decision support applications presented in this paper is a case study analysis of a geographical region in which a provider of pathology services is concerned at the prospect of being exposed to competition from a new entrant the incumbent provider may undertake strategic investments to create a stock of knowledge and goodwill with the intention of dissuading others from entering the market the effect of a new entrant is modelled as perturbation of a pre existing stable nash cournot equilibrium in an oligopolistic market and is influenced by market forces subject to government regulation the original contribution of this study is to identify the nature of these potential strategic investments and their interaction with cash flows recent historical data and managerial analysis are used to characterise market growth an estimate of the incumbent provider s market share which is at risk can be found by examining the local geographical distribution of providers and purchasers of pathology services on the basis of this analysis we propose a method for obtaining the strategic investment profile which minimises the total investment required to deter entry

the determinants of expatriate staffing by japanese multinationals in asia control learning and vertical business groups we empirically examine the determinants of the decision whether or not to appoint an expatriate as the managing director of overseas affiliates for a sample of 844 japanese manufacturing affiliates operating in asia in 1995 confirmation is found for hypotheses derived both from a control and coordination perspective on expatriation and from a knowledge creation and learning perspective strategic dependence of the parent on the affiliate increases the propensity to appoint expatriates whereas localisation of the affiliate reduces it organisational experience in the country both by the affiliate and by the firm increases the probability that host country nationals will be appointed inter firm relationships within vertical keiretsu groups impact on expatriation policies through inter organisational knowledge exchange in host countries and the mitigation of localisation requirements owing to intra group transactions

performance verifiability and output sharing in collaborative ventures this paper studies the problem of contracting between two firms when they try to exploit their complementary resources in a collaborative venture cv but their performance in the cv cannot be precisely verified by the other party or by a third party arbiter using a mathematical model that treats performance verifiability as a continuous variable the paper first establishes that a party whose performance cannot be perfectly verified has an incentive to shirk if it is paid only a flat fee and that this shirking problem is more severe as its performance is less verifiable then the paper shows in a general setting that a contract under which each party shares a fraction of the output is superior to a contract under which one of them is paid only a flat fee when performance verifiability is sufficiently low in addition with some specific assumptions about the forms of the revenue and cost functions the paper also shows that a party s share of the venture s residual output in the equilibrium is an increasing function of its productivity and a decreasing function of its opportunity cost finally the numerical examples constructed in the paper suggest that a contract which combines the self enforcing mechanism of output sharing with the third party enforcement mechanism of arbitration generally performs better than a contract that utilizes only one of these mechanisms

fixed costs limit pricing and investments in barriers to entry abstract the paper analyses how investments in r d and sales promotion can give rise to barriers to entry it is argued that the classification of barriers to entry suggested by j s bain is not very suitable for a theoretical analysis and an alternative classification is suggested this alternative classification is then used to treat the so called niche production concept

complexity context and governance in biotechnology alliances this study explores the effect of coordination needs on alliance governance we examine coordination needs that arise as a consequence of the characteristics and the context of the alliance we posit that alliance characteristics and contextual factors influence alliance form and equity investment levels we evaluate the effects of the complexity of technology transfer and strategic complexity of the alliance we also study contextual factors represented by the distance between the intellectual property protection regimes of the home countries of the participants the focal firm s prior presence in the alliance country and its primary expertise in the industry we offer contrasting predictions based on appropriation and coordination perspectives our results demonstrate support for a dominant coordination perspective with alliance characteristics and some contextual factors influencing alliance form appropriation concerns play a weaker role and receive less support

inter partner credible threat in international joint ventures an infinitely repeated prisoner s dilemma model we use an infinitely repeated prisoner s dilemma model to examine the role of inter partner credible threat in international joint ventures ijvs inter partner credible threat refers to the certainty of either partner s retaliation given the other partner s earlier cheating we argue that inter partner credible threat represents the first order determinant and partners management control represents the second order determinant of partner payoffs when inter partner credible threat is present both partners achieve balanced payoffs whereas when it is absent partners relative control will determine their relative payoffs in depth interview data from four ijvs in china provide preliminary support for our theoretical arguments

government intervention in less developed countries the experience of multinational companies it is a fact of international business that governments intervene in the operations of foreign direct investors these government actions create a high level of uncertainty in international planning and are very costly to the foreign investor it appears however that not all firms experience the same degree of intervention within almost all nations the government appears to intervene in some foreign companies more than in others at one extreme some firms are forced out of the nation while at the other extreme firms tend to grow and prosper the purpose of this paper is first to explain these different experiences of foreign firms and then to address the question how can foreign firms reduce the amount of intervention they experience the conclusions are based on the intervention histories of more than 100 firms

cultural differences in conducting intra and inter cultural negotiations a sino canadian comparison a study on conflict resolution strategies of canadian and chinese peoples republic of china executives was conducted responses to two types of joint project conflicts task related and person related with potential partners from their own culture or from the other culture were examined neither group of executives altered its strategy when negotiating across cultures chinese executives were more likely to avoid conflicts but recommended more negative strategies discontinue negotiation withdraw negotiation when conflict emerged person related conflicts were found to generate more negative responses than task related conflicts especially for chinese executives both canadian and chinese executives preferred to negotiate with canadians than with chinese

are wholly foreign owned enterprises better than joint ventures abstract this paper provides a general equilibrium model for examining the individual as well as the joint effects of export requirements and local equity controls of multinational firms the results suggest that for a small open economy under tariff protection the desirable policy is 100 foreign ownership of subsidiaries coupled with an export share requirement

the influence of firm s size and international experience on the ownership structure of italian fdi in manufacturing the literature on foreign direct investment fdi has analysed the entry mode choice by multinational enterprises mnes from several theoretical viewpoints nevertheless previous studies have mainly focused on the behaviour of large and established mnes while little attention has been given to small and medium sized firms the paper aims at providing further empirical evidence on the role of firm size and international experience in influencing the ownership structure of fdi the main hypothesis is that smaller firms characterised by financial and managerial con straints as well as firms lacking experience in managing foreign operations suffer from a condition of adverse asym metry in information costs compared to their competitors therefore they are forced to act prudently minimising risk and thus preferring a less control arrangement of foreign sub sidiaries a binomial logistic model is developed with reference to manufacturing foreign direct investments undertaken by italian firms in the period 1986 1993

extreme dependence with asymmetric thresholds evidence for the european monetary union abstract existing papers on extreme dependence use symmetrical thresholds to define simultaneous stock market booms or crashes such as the joint occurrence of the upper or lower one percent return quantile in both stock markets we show that the probability of the joint occurrence of extreme stock returns may be higher for asymmetric thresholds than for symmetric thresholds we propose a non parametric measure of extreme dependence which allows capturing extreme events for different thresholds and can be used to compute different types of extreme dependence we find that extreme dependence among the stock markets of ten initial emu member countries the united kingdom and the united states is largely asymmetrical in the pre emu period 1989 1998 and largely symmetrical in the emu period 1999 2010 our findings suggest that ignoring the possibility of asymmetric extreme dependence may lead to an underestimation of the probability of co booms and co crashes

rationalizing public private joint ventures in an open economy abstract this paper analyzes the problem of foreign investment in a less developed country where the threat of expropriation leads necessarily to withholding of technological knowledge of the foreign firm in a dynamic model it is shown that if the political authority of the host country shares the investment chances are high that the multinational will be willing in such a venture sharing of investments by the political authority serves as credible precommitment against future nationalization

international joint venture partner selection the role of the host country legal environment this study attempts to enhance our understanding of how a host country s legal environment influences international joint venture ijv partner selection criteria empirical results based on survey data collected on 169 ijvs revealed that host country rule of law perceptions negatively influence appropriation and coordination cost concerns which positively influence partner related criteria furthermore these concerns mediate the relationship between perceptions of host country rule of law and partner related criteria

parent firm performance across international joint venture life cycle stages the benefits that firms obtain from investing in international joint ventures ijvs can be reinforced or reduced by the management of later stages of collaboration this paper presents an analysis of the shareholder wealth effects of ijv formation and five types of ijv termination the empirical findings challenge common assumptions in the ijv literature contrast prior evidence on the performance implications of market entry and exit through acquisitions and divestitures and demonstrate the value of integrating ijv life cycle stages in future research

household portfolio diversification a case for rank dependent preferences the proliferation of novel preference theories in financial economics is hampered by a lack of non experimental evidence and by the theories additional complexity which has not been shown to be critical in applications in this article i present arguments in support of preferences with rank dependency using the survey of consumer finances data i document two widespread patterns inconsistent with expected utility i many households simultaneously invest in well deversified funds and in poorly diversified portfolios of stocks and ii some households with substantial savings do not invest anything in equities i show that portfolio choice models with rank dependent preferences plausibly parameterized and under fully rational assumptions are quantitatively consistent with the observed diversification these results call for further efforts to integrate the models of rank dependent preferences in portfolio theory and asset pricing the decision theoretic literature has long acknowledged the shortcomings of the expected utility theory of von neumann and morgenstern 1944 several generalizations of the theory are inspired by the experimental evidence and aimed at improving its descriptive accuracy however there are few applications of new models of preferences in finance and expected utility continues to dominate the field 1 two principal hurdles slow the proliferation of novel preferences in financial economics first the lack of empirical non experimental or field data confirming that the behavior motivating non expected utilities is widespread outside the laboratory settings second the additional and often significant complexity of the alternative preferences which has not been shown to be critical in applications where the models based on expected utility fall short of reasonable predictions this article presents empirical and theoretical this paper was previously circulated under the title household portfolio diversification the paper has benefited from the comments of shlomo benartzi luca benzoni markus brunnermeier john dickhaut maria perozek raj singh hersh shefrin and workshop participants at minnesota finance bag lunch 2003 wharton conference household financial decision making and portfolio choice and 2003 summer meetings of econometric society i would like to thank cam harvey the editor and an anonymous referee for many helpful comments and suggestions a special thanks to jack kareken for comments and editorial help on an earlier draft i am grateful to donna zerwitz for editorial assistance the views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis or the federal reserve system all errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the author address correspondence to valery polkovnichenko finance 3 122 csom 319 19 th

firm ownership preferences and host government restrictions an integrated approach two approaches may explain how multinational enterprises mnes select ownership structures for subsidiaries the first argues that mnes prefer structures that minimize that transaction costs of doing business abroad the second argues that ownership structures are determined by negotiations with host governments whose outcomes depend on the bargaining power of the firm this paper presents a framework integrating these two approaches and uses statistical methods to separate their effects empirically

international joint venture instability a critique of previous research a reconceptualization and directions for future research this paper conducts an in depth critique of previous research on international joint venture instability by pointing out its major limitations lack of clear conceptualizations and consistent operationalizations lack of clarity in the relationship with performance static focus on the eventual destination rather than developmental processes and lack of managerial relevance to overcome these deficiencies we propose a significant reconceptualization in which instability is defined as a neutral dynamic process based and multifaceted phenomenon directions for future research are provided

ratings shopping and asset complexity a theory of ratings inflation abstract many identify inflated credit ratings as one contributor to the recent financial market turmoil we develop an equilibrium model of the market for ratings and use it to examine possible origins of and cures for ratings inflation in the model asset issuers can shop for ratings observe multiple ratings and disclose only the most favorable before auctioning their assets when assets are simple agencies ratings are similar and the incentive to ratings shop is low when assets are sufficiently complex ratings differ enough that an incentive to shop emerges thus an increase in the complexity of recently issued securities could create a systematic bias in disclosed ratings despite the fact that each ratings agency produces an unbiased estimate of the asset s true quality increasing competition among agencies would only worsen this problem switching to an investor initiated ratings system alleviates the bias but could collapse the market for information

influences on foreign equity ownership level in joint ventures in china this study examines the determinants of foreign equity ownership in joint ventures in china drawing upon duning s ownership locational and internalization paradigm and the literature on bargaining power eleven variables that impact foreign ownership preferences and concessions are examined these variables are advertising intensity foreign capital input country risk of china ejv investment amount ejv contractual duration cultural distance competitive intensity local partner state ownership local partner alignment foreign partner alignment and ejv location the empirical findings are largely consistent with the hypotheses the empirical findings are largely consistent with the hypotheses further interesting differences were found among u s european and japanese firms with respect to the impact of these determinants

what makes and what does not make a real option a study of equity shares in international joint ventures this paper examines the boundaries of real options logic with an application to joint ventures jvs we distinguish between forms of uncertainty that are resolved endogenously and those that are resolved exogenously and theorize that only exogenous uncertainty will have the impact predicted by real options theory on a foreign investor s choice of how large an equity share to take in a jv we theorize that macroeconomic and institutional variables generate exogenous uncertainty whereas by contrast cultural distance and choices pertaining to corporate scope and product or process development activities involve endogenous sources of uncertainty that investors can both assess and act upon without having to wait and see using a sample of 6472 sino foreign jvs we find support for our predictions we discuss and implement proper methods to test for the existence of null effects as is relevant to establish the boundaries of a theory such as real options theory we draw implications for research and practice on jvs specifically equity share decisions which deserve more attention and real options including suitable uses and desirable extensions of the concept

structural stability and reconfiguration of international joint ventures previous research suggests that international joint ventures ijvs are inherently unstable and fragile this view has failed however to explain why many ijvs have an extended longevity and stability this paper draws on two contrasting perspectives from organization theory structural instability and structural inertia to trace both the destabilizing and stabilizing forces in ijvs and argues that a complete understanding of an ijv s dynamic evolution requires consideration of both forces

international diversification a copula approach abstract the viability of international diversification involves balancing benefits and costs this balance hinges on the degree of asset dependence in light of theoretical research linking diversification and dependence we examine international diversification using two measures of dependence correlations and copulas we document several findings first dependence has increased over time second we find evidence of asymmetric dependence or downside risk in latin america but less in the g5 the results indicate very little downside risk in east asia third east asian and latin american returns exhibit some correlation complexity interestingly the regions with maximal dependence or worst diversification do not command large returns our results suggest international limits to diversification they are also consistent with a possible tradeoff between international diversification and systemic risk

the dark side of global integration increasing tail dependence abstract we measure stock market coexceedances using the methodology of cappiello gerard and manganelli 2005 ecb working paper 501 this method enables us to measure comovement at each point of the return distribution first we construct annual coexceedance probabilities for both lower and upper tail return quantiles using daily data from 1974 2006 next we explain these probabilities in a panel gravity model framework results show that macroeconomic variables asymmetrically impact stock market comovement across the return distribution financial liberalization significantly increases left tail comovement whereas trade integration significantly increases comovement across all quantiles decreasing exchange rate volatility results in increasing lower tail comovement the introduction of the euro increases comovement across the entire return distribution thereby significantly reducing the benefits of portfolio diversification within the euro area

tariff jumping and joint ventures it is well known that high tariffs tend to induce foreign direct investment fdi by encouraging the investors to jump the tariff wall this paper examines the economic interaction among tariffs fdi and international joint ventures ijv we show that in the presence of a strong local competitor even if opening a fully owned subsidiary is not profitable to a foreign firm the foreign firm may still enter the host country market through ijv however ijv is not profitable for sufficiently high tariff rates hence we argue that liberal trade policies may attract foreign investments through the formation of joint ventures

the entry mode choice of mnes an evolutionary approach abstract the literature on foreign direct investment fdi has recently analysed the nature of the firm s entry mode choice in a foreign market particularly the choice between a joint venture and a wholly owned subsidiary the paper aims at providing further empirical evidence on the influence of some key variables in explaining it the theoretical framework relates to the resource based view of the firm and to the more recent competence based theory it focuses on the concept of the firm as a collection of productive resources and assets built through internal learning processes in the form of evolutionary experimentation the inability of the firm to build internally all the needed knowledge and competencies forces it to acquire them outside influencing the growth strategy of the firm as resources and complementary assets are spread out the firm has to deal with constraints which become more crucial when the firm enters into unfamiliar markets and areas of activity in particular when deciding about the entry mode on foreign markets the firm has to face transaction costs concerning actors and potential partners and their opportunism and costs related to the need for acquiring information about new institutional environments and their working according to this view the resort to co operative solutions and joint ventures allows firms to reduce costs and uncertainty related to foreign markets and rises if technological opportunities tacit skills and competencies constitute an important source of competitive advantage for the firm an empirical analysis with reference to a representative sample of fdi undertaken by italian firms in mining and manufacturing industries over the period 1986 1993 has been developed in order to test the hypotheses

securitisation and financial stability a widespread opinion before the credit crisis of 2007 8 was that securitisation enhances financial stability by dispersing credit risk after the credit crisis securitisation was blamed for allowing the hot potato of bad loans to be passed to unsuspecting investors both views miss the endogeneity of credit supply securitisation enables credit expansion through higher leverage of the financial system as a whole securitisation by itself may not enhance financial stability if the imperative to expand assets drives down lending standards the hot potato of bad loans sits in the financial system on the balance sheets of large banks rather than being sold on to final investors since the aim of financial intermediaries is to expand lending in order to utilise slack in balance sheet capacity

market valuation of joint ventures joint venture characteristics and wealth gains abstract along with rd that is the nature of relationship between partners the relatedness and the strategic implication of joint ventures to partners the extent of partners control over joint ventures and the corporate governance in parent firms the data set consists of two party equity joint ventures in the electronics industry that were launched between 1979 and 1988 the unit of analysis is the 174 u s firms out of 158 joint ventures of which 113 were cross border agreements and 45 were between u s firms the study applies the event study method to assess stockholders risk adjusted wealth gains and a cross sectional analysis based on a generalized least squares model to test the hypotheses contrary to popular belief our results show an overall favorable reaction to joint venturing in the stock market even though there is substantial variation according to contextual influences the findings show that stock market valuations reflect the economic potential of joint ventures and are affected by the degree and type of control shareholders and partners can exercise the first key finding in the study is that the valuation effect of joint ventures is multifaceted the market valuation of joint ventures depends on the relationship between partners the nature of partners contributions the extent of partners control over joint ventures and the corporate governance in parent firms our findings also show that partner size which has not been studied in prior studies is a critical variable affecting wealth gains from joint ventures our results certainly shed light on understanding the effect of size on corporate wealth gains from joint ventures the results provide conflicting support for most hypotheses depending on firm size implying that joint ventures have different strategic and managerial implications for the partners depending on size shareholders tend to perceive joint ventures as a risky entrepreneurial operation particularly for the smaller partners it is indeed difficult to protect the smaller partners firm specific know how from being appropriated by the other partners accordingly smaller firms role and degree of control in a joint venture substantially affect wealth gains from their joint venturing with larger corporations shareholders value majority equity sharing by smaller partners as an important governance mechanism to control resource flows and avoid opportunistic behaviors by the larger partners whereas this study extends the previous findings on positive wealth gains of joint ventures by examining contextual influences it also attempts to fill the void in the field of corporate entrepreneurship despite the growing interest in corporate entrepreneurship there has been little attempt to empirically examine its potential association with corporate financial performance in particular with market based performance measures or wealth gains financial theory posits that accounting based performance measures do not properly measure the value of managers entrepreneurial decisions rappaport 1986 argued that the true measure of the long run value of an investment decision is economic value for shareholders as measured by abnormal stock returns i e wealth gains our study is an extension of this fast emerging field of study on the relationship between corporate entrepreneurship and financial performance by focusing on corporate wealth gains from joint venturing with other firms in pursuit of entrepreneurial goals