measuring and improving the performance of customs valuation controls an illustration with gabon modern customs administrations aim to both facilitate legal trade and combat fraud to meet this dual objective many customs administrations in developing countries must give risk management a highly prominent role in this context of modernisation this paper first provides stylised facts on the performance of the customs controls carried out at the gabon border then we compare gabon s granular import customs data with international trade statistics based on this comparison we identify undetected fraud and present a methodology to target ex post audits finally we define indicators to monitor the performance of customs valuation controls

the international transmission of interest rate shocks the federal reserve and emerging markets in latin america and asia abstract this paper analyzes the effects of changes in the u s federal reserve s federal funds rate on emerging countries interest rates using high frequency weekly data i also investigate how changes in the u s term structure affect short term rates differentials other shocks include changes in the u s dollar euro exchange rate changes in the international price of oil risk ratings and the degree of capital mobility the results indicate that there is a strong and fairly rapid transmission of changes in the federal funds rate into interest rates in the latin american countries in the sample this effect is equally large in the asian nations in the long run the adjustment path is different across the two regions however adjustment is very fast and cyclical in latin america it is gradual and slower in east asia

wage bargaining central bank independence and the real effects of money the effects of financial capital mobility on monetary policy autonomy are relatively well understood but the importance of particular monetary regimes in distinct national institutional settings is not this article is a theoretical and empirical exploration of the effects of monetary policy regimes on unemployment in different national wage bargaining settings based on a rational expectations two stage game of the interaction between the wage behavior of labor unions and the monetary policies of governments i argue that monetary policies have real employment effects in all but the most decentralized bargaining systems specifically in intermediately centralized bargaining systems a credible government commitment to a nonaccommodating monetary policy rule will deter militant wage behavior with salutary effects on unemployment in highly centralized systems by contrast restrictive monetary policies will clash with unions pursuit of wage distributive goals and produce inferior employment performance only in highly fragmented bargaining systems is money neutral in the sense that employment performance is unaffected by monetary regimes the model has clear consequences for the optimal design of central banks and collective bargaining arrangements and suggests new ways to study institutional change hereunder the causal effect of increasingly globalized capital markets the argument is supported by pooled time series data for fifteen oecd countries over a twenty one year period

equality employment and budgetary restraint the trilemma of the service economy this article presents an analysis of the postindustrial economy from a political economy perspective it identifies a set of specific distributional trade offs associated with the new role played by the services sector as the chief source of employment growth in advanced democracies over the last three decades it is argued that three core policy objectives budgetary restraint wage equality and expansion of employment constitute a political trilemma that allows only two of the goals to be successfully pursued at the same time using a combination of statistical and case oriented analysis the authors demonstrate the political and economic salience of the trilemma the distributional tensions inherent in each strategy to cope with it and the political institutional constraints under which these strategies are chosen

south asia energy security challenges and opportunities south asia has witnessed a growing imbalance between energy demand and its supply from indigenous sources resulting in increased import dependence energy endowments differ among the south asian countries however access to the significant energy resources in the neighboring countries is denied which increases the cost of energy supply and reduces energy security of the individual countries and of the region as a whole the countries in the region could benefit significantly only by strengthening the mechanism of energy trade through improved connectivity therefore greater cooperation within south asia could be one of the most effective ways to deal with this regional energy deficit and ensure energy security of the region

the structure of citizen attitudes and the european political space a common concern regarding the viability of institutional reform of the eu is whether european citizens constitute a political community that facilitates democratic governance one important aspect of this concern is whether public perceptions are structured so as to ease or impede political discourse across europe to investigate this question the authors examine whether the eu mass public organizes its attitudes toward eu policy issues in systematic and meaningful ways specifically they examine whether eu citizens attitudes across a broad range of policies decided at the eu level are structured consistently with several prominent models of the eu policy space using eurobarometer data the authors show that citizens policy positions on eu issues are systematically organized along a single dimension that is different from domestic left right

tax motivated transfer pricing and us intrafirm trade prices abstract this paper analyzes monthly data on us international trade prices between 1997 and 1999 in order to investigate the impact of tax influences on intrafirm trade prices results indicate that there is substantial evidence of tax motivated transfer pricing in us intrafirm trade prices there is a strong and statistically significant relationship between countries tax rates and the prices of intrafirm transactions controlling for other variables that affect trade prices as country tax rates are lower us intrafirm export prices are lower and us intrafirm import prices are higher this finding is consistent with theoretical predictions regarding tax motivated income shifting behavior

tariff evasion and rules of origin violations under the canada u s free trade agreement using product level data on trade between canada and the u s this paper presents evidence of tariff evasion and violation of the rules of origin occurring under the canada u s free trade agreement cusfta it shows that more imports go unreported at the destination country when tariffs are higher consistent with the tariff evasion hypothesis this result implies that the trade creation effect of a free trade agreement may in fact be due to less underreporting further this paper shows that the larger canadian tariff preference margin for the u s is associated with more goods originating in third countries being transshipped through the u s territory for re export the preference margin is also positively correlated with the value of excess imports from the u s which qualify for preferential treatment both results suggest the presence of persistent violations of cusfta s rules of origin a l aide de donnees au niveau des produits sur les flux de commerce entre le canada et les etats unis on montre qu il y a evitement de tarif et violation des regles d origine dans les operations de l accord de libre echange canada etats unis on montre que davantage d importations ne sont pas declarees au point de destination quand les tarifs sont eleves dans l esprit meme de l hypothese d evitement de tarif ce resultat implique que l effet de creation de commerce d un accord de libre echange peut en fait etre attribuable a moins de sous declaration de plus le texte montre que les plus grandes marges preferentielles des tarifs avec les etats unis sont associees a davantage de biens en provenance de tiers pays et convoyes a travers le territoire americain pour re exportation la marge preferentielle est aussi positivement co reliee avec la valeur des importations excedentaires en provenance des etats unis qui se qualifient pour un traitement preferentiel ces deux ensembles de resultats suggerent la presence persistante de violations des regles d origine de l accord de libre echange canada etats unis

spillovers through banking centers a panel data analysis of bank flows abstract this paper presents evidence that spillovers through bank lending contributed to the transmission of currency crises during the recent episodes of financial instability in emerging markets the innovation of the paper is that it looks beyond aggregated measures of contagion into the structure of bank flows disaggregating by banking centers the main findings are that spillovers caused by banks exposures to a crisis country help predict flows in third countries after the mexican and asian crises but not after the russian crisis in the latter there is evidence of a generalized outflow from emerging markets the importance of spillovers through banking centers suggests that countries might reduce contagion risk by diversifying the sources of their financing and by carefully monitoring borrowing from creditors exposed to potential crisis countries

internal capital markets and the competition for corporate resources this article examines the role of corporate headquarters in allocating scarce resources to competing projects in an internal capital market unlike a bank headquarters has control rights that enable it to engage in winner picking the practice of actively shifting funds from one project to another by doing a good job in the winner picking dimension headquarters can create value even when it cannot help at all to relax overall firm wide credit constraints the model implies that internal capital markets may sometimes function more efficiently when headquarters oversees a small and focused set of projects this article analyzes the process by which internal capital markets channel limited resources to different uses inside a company in so doing it seeks to address two related sets of questions first what is the fundamental economic rationale for creating an internal capital market that is under what circumstances can it make sense to combine several technologically distinct projects under one roof and have them seek funding from corporate headquarters as opposed to setting them up as stand alone companies that each raise external financing on their own second given this rationale what is the optimal size and scope of an internal capital market should headquarters be involved in funding a large number of projects or just a few and should these projects be unrelated to one another or in similar lines of business the answers to both sets of questions flow from the insight that in a credit constrained setting where not all positive npv projects can be financed headquarters can create value by actively reallocating scarce funds across projects for example the cash flow generated by one division s activities may be taken and spent on investment in another division where the returns are higher or alternatively one division s assets may be used as collateral to raise financing that is then diverted to the other division simply put individual projects must compete for the scarce funds and headquarters job is to pick the winners and losers in this competition

trade finance specialization and synchronization i investigate the determinants of business cycle synchronization across regions the linkages between trade in goods financial openness specialization and business cycle synchronization are evaluated in the context of a system of simultaneous equations the main results are as follows i specialization patterns have a sizable effect on business cycles most of this effect is independent of trade or financial policy but directly reflects differences in gdp per capita ii a variety of measures of financial integration suggest that economic regions with strong financial links are significantly more synchronized even though they also tend to be more specialized iii the estimated role of trade is closer to that implied by existing models once intra industry trade is held constant the results obtain in a variety of data sets measurement strategies and specifications they relate to a recent strand of international business cycle models with incomplete markets and transport costs and on the empir

the punishment trap integration referendums as popularity contests it is widely believed that voters care little about foreign policy transforming referendums on international agreements into tests of a government s popularity the authors analyze this notion and present two level games characterized by asymmetric information the article demonstrates that the linking of domestic issues to an international treaty does not convert referendums into pure plebiscites however the two level decision creates a severe dilemma for the electorate uncertainty regarding whether the possible utility of the treaty offsets the value of domestic policies influences the decisions of voters the median voter risks punishing a popular government or failing to express discontent with an unpopular administration our games explore the conditions under which competing elites try to manipulate the uncertainty of constituents about the outcome of international negotiations empirical illustrations are presented in the form of case studies and survey analyses of the ballots in denmark franc

distance constraints the limits of foreign lending in poor economies how far does mobility of multinational banks solve problems of financial development using a panel of 80 000 loans over 7 years i show that greater cultural and geographical distance between a foreign bank s headquarters and local branches leads it to further avoid lending to informationally difficult yet fundamentally sound firms requiring relational contracting greater distance also makes them less likely to bilaterally renegotiate and less successful at recovering defaults differences in bank size legal institutions risk preferences or unobserved borrower heterogeneity cannot explain these results these distance constraints can be large enough to permanently exclude certain sectors of the economy from financing by foreign banks

energy security electricity population and economic growth the case of a developing south asian resource rich economy economic growth and increasing population is driving the demand for energy in developing economies globally including south asia energy security concerns have heightened in these economies consequently raising questions in their ability to meet the key sustainable development goals this paper specifically examines the inter relationships between energy security captured through the channel of electricity availability based on electricity consumption and economic output in a multivariate framework incorporating the effects of capital formation and population for nepal a developing economy in south asia time series econometrics based on the ardl bounds test approach to cointegration and the toda yamamoto granger causality tests are used to examine and test for long run equilibrium relationships and causality between 1975 and 2014 we find that there is no long run relationship between electricity consumption and economic output for nepal distinguishing it at the regional level for south asia however a 1 increase in population increases electricity consumption by 4 16 in the long run we propose that large scale development of available renewable energy such as hydropower and improvements in energy efficiency will not only strengthen energy security in the long run but also will help tackling climate change in south asian developing economies like nepal

the welfare effects of trade and capital market liberalization treatise on the welfare effects of trade and capital market liberalization consquenses of the capital account liberalization in the presence of trade restrictions specifies on the liberalization of trade in the presence of foreign borrowing constraints proves superiority of gradual liberalization of trade to an abrupt liberalization

elections coalitions and legislative outcomes predictions of electoral behavior in a multiparty setting should be a function of the voters beliefs about how parties will perform following an election similarly party behavior in a legislature should be a function of electoral promises and rewards we develop a multistage game theoretic model of three party competition under proportional representation the final policy outcome of the game is generated by a noncooperative bargaining game between the parties in the elected legislature this game is essentially defined by the vote shares each party receives in the general election and the parties electoral policy positions at the electoral stage parties and voters are strategic in that they take account of the legislative implications of any electoral outcome we solve for equilibrium electoral positions by the parties and final policy outcomes

mixed signals central bank independence coordinated wage bargaining and european monetary union plans for the european monetary union emu are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects however the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank when signaling problems between the central bank and other actors in the political economy are considered we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective greater central bank independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated but it can bring higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is less coordinated thus currency unions like the emu may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage they will have costs as well as benefits and these will be unevenly distributed among and within the member nations depending on the changes they induce in the status of the bank and of wage coordination

how banks go abroad branches or subsidiaries the authors examine the factors that influence banks type of organizational form when operating in foreign markets using an original database of the branches and subsidiaries in latin america and eastern europe of the top 100 international banks they find that regulation taxation the degree of desired penetration in the local market and host country economic and political risks matter banks are more likely to operate as branches in countries that have higher corporate taxes and when they face lower regulatory restrictions on bank entry in general and on foreign branches in particular subsidiaries are the preferred organizational form by banks that seek to penetrate the local market establishing large and mostly retail operations finally there is evidence that economic and political risks have opposite effects on the type of organizational form suggesting that legal differences in the degree of parent bank responsibility vis a vis branches and subsidiaries under different risk scenarios play an important role in the kind of operations international banks maintain overseas

on the hidden links between financial and trade opening abstract developing countries characterized by high costs of tax collection and enforcement opt to use financial repression as an implicit tax on savings providing the impetus for capital flight a mechanism facilitating illicit capital movements is trade misinvoicing where the effectiveness of capital controls would increase with the resources spent on monitoring and enforcement per one dollar of international trade under these circumstances greater trade openness increases the effective cost of enforcing financial repression thereby reducing the usefulness of financial repression as an implicit tax this in turn implies that financial reforms tend to be the by product of greater trade integration

promoting regional energy co operation in south asia abstract energy is a key ingredient of the socio economic development of any region south asia is not only one of the fastest growing regions in the world it is also one of the poorest which thus puts energy at the very heart of the development process in the region this paper looks at the challenges faced by the south asia sub region for economic co operation sasec comprised of bangladesh bhutan india and nepal and also at the role of greater regional energy co operation therein the region is characterized by pressures of growing economies and increasing population while the per capita energy consumption is one of the lowest in the world energy intensity continues to be very high a large portion of the population lacks access to modern sources of energy and depends on traditional sources that are not only inefficient but also have severe health and environmental problems associated with them increasing oil import dependency and huge investment needs for energy market development pose a further challenge the region has a good resource potential and tremendous scope for energy co operation which can play a key role in addressing many of these energy security concerns and in putting it on the path of sustainable development it is ironic that the record in the area has been so limited and that too in the most basic form of co operation i e bilateral arrangements between countries this paper puts forth a multi pronged strategy for sub regional energy co operation encompassing softer options aimed at confidence building to more substantial and larger scale co operation efforts delays in decision making to ensure stronger and mutually beneficial co operation efforts are associated with high costs not only to the energy sector but also for the entire development agenda with the precarious energy situation in the region and unprecedented increases in international oil prices seen in recent times it is high time for policy makers financing institutions ngos and the civil society to push for a greater integration of the sasec energy sector

who wants the euro and why economic explanations of public attitudes towards a single european currency the paper looks at whether public attitudes towards a single european currency held in the european union member states reflect a rational evaluation of the involved benefits and costs it finds that they do the looser monetary and fiscal policy was in the past and the more time a country spent in the ems the more citizens welcome the euro attitudes towards the euro do not seem consistent with attitudes towards a european central bank however upon closer scrutiny opponents of a single currency appear to be less consistent and less rational in their responses than proponents

tariffs enforcement and customs evasion evidence from india we examine the effect of tariff policies on evasion of customs duties in the context of the trade reform in india of the 1990s by exploiting the variation in tariff rates across time and products we identify a robust positive elasticity of evasion with respect to tariffs a second contribution of the paper is to provide some evidence on the impact of enforcement while we cannot identify the direct impact of enforcement on evasion we can establish the extent to which enforcement related factors such as product characteristics that determine the ease of detection of evasion affect the evasion elasticity the results render support to the hypothesis that improvements in enforcement can reduce the responsiveness of evasion to tariffs

do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities abstract two of the main puzzles in international economics are the consumption and the portfolio home biases we solve for international equity portfolios in a two country two good stochastic equilibrium model with trade costs in goods markets we show that introducing trade costs as suggested by obstfeld and rogoff obstfeld m rogoff k 2000a the six major puzzles in international macroeconomics is there a common cause nber macroeconomics annual 15 is not sufficient to explain these two puzzles simultaneously on the contrary we find that trade costs create a foreign bias in portfolios for reasonable parameter values this result is robust to the addition of non tradable goods for standard calibrations of the preferences

are bank holding companies a source of strength to their banking subsidiaries i document evidence that a bank affiliated with a multi bank holding company mbhc is significantly safer than either a stand alone bank or a bank affiliated with a one bank holding company not only does mbhc affiliation reduce the probability of future financial distress but distressed affiliated banks are also more likely to receive capital injections recover more quickly and are less likely to fail over the next year moreover the measured benefits of affiliation are much larger than those that existed before recent reforms of bank holding company regulation suggesting that much of the observed benefit can be attributed to regulation and not the market

multiple wage bargaining systems in the single european currency area little attention in the emu literature has been paid to the interaction between central bank monetary rules and systems of collective wage bargaining analytically and empirically coordinated wage bargaining systems respond with real wage restraint to non accommodating monetary policy since wage determination is dominated by collective bargaining in all the emu member states and wage coordination within the member states has grown since 1980 this is a topic of potential importance in particular the replacement of the bundesbank directly targeting german inflation by an ecb targeting european inflation has removed a major institutional support of wage restraint in germany the consequences of this for emu are worked out under two scenarios that inflation expectations will be generated by ecb monetary policy and that they will reflect german inflation outcomes possible institutional developments are discussed including government union bargains the bundesbank has also played a major role in maintaining fiscal rectitude by targeting excess fiscal deficits in germany again its replacement by the ecb targeting if at all european rather than german fiscal policy loosens fiscal constraints for underlying structural reasons therefore it is possible that germany and other emu countries will move to a period of fiscal activism with wage restraint and low inflation purchased through social contract negotiations

international shock transmission after the lehman brothers collapse evidence from syndicated lending after lehman brothers filed for bankruptcy in september 2008 cross border bank lending contracted sharply to explain the severity and variation in this contraction we analyze detailed data on cross border syndicated lending by 75 banks to 59 countries we find that banks that had to write down sub prime assets refinance large amounts of long term debt and experienced sharp declines in their market to book ratio transmitted these shocks across borders by curtailing their lending abroad while shocked banks differentiated between countries in much the same way as less constrained banks they restricted their lending more to small borrowers

china s exports export tax rebates and exchange rate policy this paper examines the relationship between china s exports export tax rebates and exchange rate policy it offers an explanation for why china s exports continued to rise under rmb real appreciations during the asian financial crisis based on a traditional export demand model we test our hypothesis that the counteracting effects of china s export tax rebate policy have diminished the effectiveness of real exchange rates in facilitating the resolution of trade imbalances under the current pegged exchange rate regime we find evidence that rmb real appreciations during the crisis negatively affected china s exports but the negative effects were mitigated by the positive effects of export tax rebates we also find evidence of a long run relationship between china s exports and the other explanatory variables the empirical evidence suggests that under the pegged exchange rate regime with limited adjustments real exchange rate movements alone cannot resolve china s external imbalances the policy implication of this study is that china needs to redirect its decades long export oriented development strategy to one that emphasises domestic demand oriented development and to replace the current pegged exchange rate regime with a market oriented more flexible exchange rate regime

seigniorage and political instability the importance of seigniorage relative to other sources of government revenue differs markedly across countries this paper tries to explain this regularity by studying a political model of tax reform the model implies that countries with a more unstable and polarized political system will have more inefficient tax structures and thus will rely more heavily on seigniorage this prediction of the model is tested on cross sectional data for seventy countries the authors find that after controlling for other variables political instability is positively associated with seigniorage copyright 1992 by american economic association

liquidity management of u s global banks internal capital markets in the great recession abstract the recent crisis highlighted the importance of globally active banks in linking markets one channel for this linkage is through how these banks manage liquidity across their entire banking organization we document that funds regularly flow between parent banks and their affiliates in diverse foreign markets we show that parent banks when hit by a funding shock reallocate liquidity in the organization according to a locational pecking order affiliate locations that are important for the parent bank revenue streams are relatively protected from liquidity reallocations in the organization while traditional funding locations are more extensively used to buffer shocks to the parent bank balance sheets

good bye financial repression hello financial crash some unintended consequences of financial liberalization in latin america are analyzed in this paper intrinsic imperfectious in financial markets and the policy dilemmas they pose are reviewed first the stylized facts of southern cone experiments in financial liberization are then presented alternative ways of organlzing domestic capital markets under latin american conditions are discussed and an eclectic reform mongering program is proposed

home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics standard theory would predict that investors hold a well diversified portfolio of equities across the world but despite the process of financial globalization investors still hold a disproportionate share of local equities in their portfolio the equity home bias french and poterba 1991 we review the various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon in the context of recent developments in macroeconomic modelling that have allowed to incorporate sophisticated international portfolio choices in standard two country general equilibrium models we refer to this literature as open economy financial macroeconomics we focus on three broad classes of explanations i hedging motives in frictionless financial markets real exchange rate and non tradable income risk ii asset trade costs in international financial markets such as transaction costs differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets iii informational frictions and behavioural biases these recent developments raise the need for new portfolio facts beyond the equity home bias and we will present some new evidence on cross border asset holdings across different types of assets equities bonds and bank lending we also present some new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level these data should inform macroeconomic modelling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment

modeling energy and development an evaluation of models and concepts most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries focusing primarily on issues that are important in industrialized countries evaluation of the results for asia of the ipcc sres models shows that broad concepts of energy and development the energy ladder and the environmental kuznets curve can be observed in the results of the models however improvements can be made in modeling the issues that underlie these concepts like traditional fuels electrification economic structural change income distribution and informal economies given the rapidly growing importance of energy trajectories of developing countries for global sustainability the challenge for the future is to develop energy models that include all these aspects of energy and development

can cross listing relax financial frictions in trade and equity holdings a sector level analysis previous studies have documented the positive mutual relationship between bilateral aggregate goods trade and asset holdings this article examines whether financial frictions play an important role in this mutual relationship instrumental variable poisson pseudo maximum likelihood iv ppml estimation method is applied to a new panel of data on us imports and foreign equity holdings in 20 manufacturing sectors from 43 countries over the period 2001 2007 the results confirm the significantly positive relationship between goods trade and equity holdings and show that financial frictions are an important factor causing this positive correlation in addition we find that equity cross listings in the us stock markets provide external funds to relax financial frictions and promote goods trade this impact varies with different measures of financial frictions in developing and developed countries

tax rates and tax evasion evidence from missing imports in china tax evasion by its very nature is difficult to observe we quantify the effects of tax rates on tax evasion by examining the relationship in china between the tariff schedule and the evasion gap which we define as the difference between hong kong s reported exports to china at the product level and china s reported imports from hong kong our results imply that a one percentage point increase in the tax rate is associated with a 3 percent increase in evasion furthermore the evasion gap is negatively correlated with tax rates on closely related products suggesting that evasion takes place partly through misclassification of imports from higher taxed categories to lower taxed ones in addition to underreporting the value of imports

disguised carry trade and the transmission of global liquidity shocks evidence from china s goods trade data abstract currency carry trade disguised as goods trade can potentially channel external financial shocks to domestic economic environment despite capital controls we identify this channel in the context of post gfc china using variations in product characteristics and a policy shock we show that trade volumes of cost efficient products responded significantly more to carry returns however such differential responses to carry returns vanished after the government s clampdown on illicit capital flows at the aggregate level we demonstrate further that the surge in disguised carry trades led to a significant expansion of china s shadow banking credit but not its traditional bank lending credit

follow the money quantifying domestic effects of foreign bank shocks in the great recession the financial crises have focused consider able academic and policy attention on the roles of foreign banks in transmitting shocks and creating vulnerability for host or parent countries adverse consequences are presumed and a premise of their destabilizing behavior in particular surrounding the branches of foreign banks has taken hold global banks actively allocate funds across their banking organizations in normal times and in stress periods cetorelli and goldberg forthcoming during the great recession some for eign locations of us banks were core investment markets that continued as destinations for funding while other foreign locations served as core funding markets that would send even larger net flows to their parent banks following parent balance sheet disturbances cetorelli and goldberg 2011b in this paper we provide complementary evidence focusing on the perspective of a host country we analyze the activity of foreign banks

discrepancies in international data an application to china hong kong entrepot trade before discussing discrepancies in international data it is essential to talk about the sources of the data the principal source for global trade statistics is the united nations un that agency relies on the trade statistics reported by its member countries the obvious discrepancy in these reports is that what country a says it sends to country b is not the same as what country b says it receives from a such differences in what the exporting and importing countries report is not just a feature of developing countries these discrepancies are pervasive in industrial countries as well for example since 1989 the united states has abandoned its attempt to keep track of exports to canada and now just relies on canadian data on its imports from the united states see robert feenstra 1997 table 2 prior to this action the united states underreported its exports to canada by more than 10 percent as compared to the canadian value this illustrates the general principle that the information collected by the importer which is often collecting tariff revenues and therefore has an incentive to record imports accurately is usually viewed as more accurate than that collected by the exporter there are then two problems with the un data it contains different information from the exporting and importing countries and it is expensive at least by the standards of lowbudget academic work progress on the first of these problems has been made by statistics canada in the world trade database wtdb that agency obtains the un trade data and then attempts to resolve the differences between the exporters and importers providing a single number for the value of each disaggregate good sent from country a to b these data are distributed on cd rom but are still fairly expensive by academic standards to make progress on the second problem the statistics canada data set for an early set of years 1970 1992 is distributed by the national bureau of economic research nber for a nominal fee also in cd rom format see feenstra et al 1997 in view of the widespread use of these data distributed by the un statistics canada or the nber it is worth asking how well the statistics canada database resolves the differing reports by the exporters and importers to take a particularly important example consider u s trade with china in 1996 the united states reported a deficit with china of 39 5 billion while the chinese reported a value of the u s deficit of 10 5 billion these two figures differ by 29 billion or a factor of three times at the heart of these differing values is the treatment of goods shipped through hong kong which remains a separate entity from china for customs purposes to what extent does statistics canada resolve the differences between these reported trade values to arrive at some credible value of bilateral trade unfortunately this issue is not resolved at all the values given in the statistics canada wtdb for chinese exports to the united states are very close to those reported by china and are much less than those reported by the united states this is contrary to the general principle stated above of treating the exporter s record of trade as less accurate than the importer s record on the other hand the u s official figures for imports from china are too high because they include the feenstra department of economnics university of california davis ca 95616 haas school of business university of califomia berkeley and national bureau of economic research hai department of economics fort lewis college and china centre for economic research beijing university woo and yao department of economics university of califomia davis we thank li yan jin hongman and jiang xiaozhu from the customs general administration people s republic of china for assisting with the study from which the results reported here are drawn

evasion behaviors of exporters and importers evidence from the u s china trade data discrepancy abstract since the late 1990s reported u s imports from china and hong kong have regularly and increasingly exceeded reported exports of china and hong kong to the united states this discrepancy which is not caused by re exporting through hong kong varies by product categories and in some cases takes the opposite sign in this paper we focus on china s direct exports to the united states using a model that allows for simultaneous misreporting to two authorities we find strong statistical evidence of under reporting exports at the chinese border to avoid paying value added tax vat the value of vat avoided is estimated at 6 5 billion during 2002 2008 and the associated understatements account for approximately two thirds of the discrepancy we also provide evidence of tariff evasion at the u s border in particular for related party transactions and indirect evidence of transfer pricing and evasion of chinese capital controls an estimated 2 billion of u s tariff revenue is lost due to such evasion during 2002 2008 which reduces the apparent size of the statistical discrepancy

cross country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis the financial crisis of 2007 2008 is rooted in a number of factors some common to previous financial crises others new analysis of post crisis macroeconomic and financial sector performance for 58 advanced countries and emerging markets shows a differential impact of old and new factors factors common to other crises like asset price bubbles and current account deficits help to explain cross country differences in the severity of real economic impacts new factors such as increased financial integration and dependence on wholesale funding help to account for the amplification and global spread of the financial crisis our findings point to vulnerabilities to be monitored and areas of needed national and international reforms to reduce risk of future crises and cross border spillovers they also reinforce a sad state of knowledge much of how crises start and spread remains unknown stijn claessens giovanni dell ariccia deniz igan and luc laeven

the nonneutrality of monetary policy with large price or wage setters monetary rules matter for the equilibrium rate of employment when the number of price wage setters is small even when assuming rational expectations complete information central bank precommitment and absence of nominal rigidities if the central bank is nonaccommodating sufficiently large unions bargaining independently have an incentive to moderate sectoral money wages and thereby expected real wages the result is an increase in the real money supply and hence higher demand and employment this does not hold with accommodating monetary policy since unions wage decisions cannot then affect the real money supply a similar argument holds for large monopolistically competitive price setters

regional cooperation on energy in south asia unraveling the political challenges in implementing transnational pipelines and electricity grids political challenges are arguably the biggest constraint to the realization of regional energy projects in south asia an issue that has impeded cooperation despite the existence of substantial economic incentives although challenges such as technical difficulties financial constraints and bureaucratic inefficiency are important they are essentially subsidiary issues the solutions to which are held hostage by often mentioned but rarely examined political impediments while existing accounts of political obstacles in contemporary literature are relatively abstract this paper draws on interviews with government officials academics representatives of regional institutions and officials of multilateral development banks in bangladesh nepal pakistan and india to get insights into their experience of possibilities for and limitations to energy cooperation by synthesizing the findings of interviews with relevant literature this paper undertakes a systematic analysis of the political challenges to regional energy projects and provides a number of policy recommendations to overcome these impediments

loan sales and relationship banking firms raise money from banks and the bond market banks sell loans in a secondary market to recycle their funds or to trade on private information liquidity in the loan market depends on the relative likelihood of each motive for trade and affects firms optimal financial structure the endogenous degree of liquidity is not always socially optimal there is excessive trade in highly rated names and insufficient liquidity in riskier bonds we provide testable implications for prices and quantities in primary and secondary loan markets and bond markets further we posit that risk based capital requirements may be socially desirable the term collateralized loan obligations clos was coined in 1989 when corporate loans were first used as collateral in collateralized debt obligations cdos 1 since then the growth in loan sales has been enormous according to lucas et al 2006 1 1 trillion of cdos were outstanding as of 2005 and 50 of their collateral was comprised of loans in addition to pooled securities banks also trade first loss positions on single names through direct sales of individual loans in the united states loan sales have grown from 8 billion in 1991 to 154 8 billion by 2004 2 if a bank securitizes or sells a loan that it originated it is buying insurance on credit events over which it has either more control or more information than the buyer in the face of this informational friction why did the secondary market for corporate loans develop in the 1990s what effect has this had on relationship banking in this paper we characterize when a liquid secondary market for loans arises when a liquid secondary loan market is socially desirable and we provide testable predictions on the effect of the emergence of this market on prices and quantities in bond and primary loan markets our predictions are based on both changes in the parameters that lead to higher loan liquidity and changes in the contracts that are written between banks and firms given this higher liquidity

public opinion toward immigration in the european union does it matter the literature on immigration has been divided with regard to the constraints particularly of public opinion on eu policy cooperation analysts have suggested that there is a disjuncture between

tax avoidance through re imports the case of redundant trade abstract many countries have participated in re imports a type of round trip trade originating from a country and back to the same country china as the largest re importer has imported more from itself than from the u s since 2005 as the first empirical study on re imports this paper shows that china s re imports are at least partially driven by the imperfection of the value added tax vat rebate policy for processing trade in principle firms should be able to claim input vat credits after selling their finished products in china or receive input vat rebates after exporting their products some processing firms however are not qualified for the credits or rebates when selling in china hence they may export their products to obtain rebates some downstream processing firms can benefit from re importing these products duty free as inputs because they cannot obtain the rebates when buying inputs in china even after exporting their final goods

capital flight to germany two alternative measures abstract we use two measures to study two capital flight channels for germany one measure is based on the concept of trade misinvoicing and one on net claims and liabilities in the eurosystem of central banks for both measures we propose refinements to enhance the assessment of capital flight we find that capital flight towards germany via these two channels has been quite sizable in the recent decade and can tally to about 2 of gdp annually regarding their determinants we show that the two capital flight measures are driven by both common and measure specific factors traditional determinants such as covered interest differentials only play a limited role while crisis specific factors such as economic policy uncertainty the ecb collateral policy as well as currency misalignment are driving factors of the investors apparent flight to safety behavior

let there be light a multi actor approach to alleviating energy poverty in asia abstract energy poverty is the primary energy security issue impacting almost 800 million people particularly women and children in the developing countries of asia current trends indicate that should there be no change to existing policies and the governance systems and institutions underpinning them the absolute number of energy poor will barely shift most significantly addressing energy poverty is critical to absolute poverty reduction enhanced gender equality and political stability in the asian region we offer a solution to progress the energy poverty alleviation effort focused on encouraging sustainable development centred investment this will involve multi actor partnerships between developed and developing country governments investors and multilateral institutions we propose that there may be spill over effects for investing firms in the form of strengthened corporate reputation consequently energy poverty alleviation efforts can create new opportunities for commerce multilateral institutions ngos and developing and developed countries it is envisaged that the multi actor approach put forward by this paper will facilitate the partnerships programs and provisions needed to alleviate energy poverty in asia however critical to the success of this collaborative approach is a genuine shift in sentiment from the key stakeholders involved in the effort

europeans and the european community the dynamics of public support for european integration europeans evaluate the european community ec according to its economic performance political salience and role in international relations during the last two decades their measured attitudes toward european integration warmed especially when inflation rates fell as the ec share of the country s trade expanded when ec elections and referenda increased attention to the community and to some extend during periods when east west relations were relaxed europeans did not vary their support according to their countries shares of the brussels budget thus notwithstanding denmark s 1992 rejection of the maastricht treaty and the end of the cold war recent ec reforms that increase monetary stability intra european trade and political attention are all likely to maintain or increase citizen support for the ec these findings result from a model that blends comparative political economy with international relations in one of the first applications of pooled cross sectional and time series analysis to the comparative study of public opinion

international financial remoteness and macroeconomic volatility abstract this paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility in particular we show that countries that are farther from major locations of international financial activity systematically experience more volatile growth rates in both output and consumption even after accounting for political institutions trade and other controls our results are relatively robust in the sense that more financially remote countries are more volatile though the results are not always statistically significant the comparative strength of this finding is in contrast to the more ambiguous evidence found in the literature

financial opening and development evidence and policy controversies this paper outlines possible channels linking commercial and financial openness this inquiry is motivated by a salient feature of the global economy in recent decades the embrace by developing countries of financial reforms the adjustment process to the growing financial integration has been rocky frequently associated with financial crises these developments have led to a spirited debate concerning the wisdom of unrestricted capital mobility between oecd and emerging market countries various studies have identified circumstances in which unlimited capital mobility may be suboptimal this paper argues that notwithstanding the above debate the strongest argument for financial opening may be the pragmatic one like it or not greater trade integration erodes the effectiveness of restrictions on capital mobility hence for successful emerging markets that engage in trade integration financial opening is not a question of if but of when and how some insight into the possible linkages between financial and trade opening is obtained by looking at the patterns of changes in openness in the last 30 years in order to evaluate the statistical significance of the association between financial and trade openness i apply a panelregression methodology the units of observations are nonoverlapping five year changes in the openness measures throughout 1969 1998 for all countries subject to data availability table 1 presents the regressions where the dependent variable is the change in financial openness the explanatory variables are changes in trade openness and changes in the level of gdp per capita allowing for country fixed effects regression i reports all developing countries subject to data availability regression ii excludes from the sample developing economies countries that are characterized by financial openness that exceeds 100 percent or by trade openness that exceeds 60 percent and small island economies finally regression iii deals only with the oecd countries the first two regressions indicate a highly significant positive association between changes in financial and commercial openness in developing countries this effect in the oecd countries is positive but at a substantially lower significance level in aizenman and ilan noy 2003 annual data are used to investigate the impact of political economy and other structural variables on the links between trade and financial openness an extended version of our model where political economy considerations determine the efficiency of the tax system suggests that democracies are associated with lower financial openness our empirical investigation 317 social sciences 1 department of economics university of california santa cruz 1156 high st santa cruz ca 95064 and nber e mail jaizen ucsc edu i thank shang jin wei for sharing the data on financial openness and ilan noy and bill koch for excellent research assistance useful comments by mike dooley michael hutchison phil mccalman graciela kaminsky and ken kletzer are gratefully acknowledged 1 a useful survey of financial liberalization is john williamson and molly mahar 1998 see carlos diaz alejandro 1985 dani rodrik 1999 and thomas hellmann et al 2000 for skeptical assessments of the gains from financial liberalization for studies dealing with the financial instability associated with capital account opening see the papers in sebastian edwards and jeffrey frankel 2002 on the association between financial integration and financial crises see asli demirguc kunt and enrica detragiache 1998 guillermo calvo 1998 and graciela kaminsky and carmen reinhart 1999 2 financial openness measures gross private capital inflows gross private outflows 100 gdp using the data documented and applied by shang jin wei and yi wu 2002 and eswar prasad et al 2003 trade openness measures exports imports 100 gdp using the world development indicators wdi data 3 the inclusion of gdp per capita as an explanatory variable is suggested by the linkages between gdp per capital level and financial depth 4 following the approach of alex cukierman et al 1992 one expects less polarized societies and better functioning democracies to be characterized by more efficient taxcollection systems applying this conjecture a more efficient tax system would be associated also with lower tax

potential gains from expanding regional electricity trade in south asia abstract the south asia region is lagging behind many regions in regional electricity trading despite the huge potential for trade using an electricity system optimization model this study quantifies the benefits of unrestricted cross border electricity trade in south asia during the 2015 2040 period the study finds that the unrestricted electricity trade provision would save us 226 billion us 9 billion per year of electricity supply costs over the period 100 billion when discounted at 5 rate the ratio of benefits in the form of reduction of fuel and other operating costs to increased costs of generation and interconnection investment would be more than 5 1 the provision would reduce regional power sector carbon dioxide emissions by 8 mainly through substitution of coal based generation with hydro based generation although regional emissions would be well above current levels absent other policy interventions because of rapidly growing demand to achieve these benefits the region would need to add 95 gw of new cross border transmission interconnection capacity but at the same time it would avoid 36 gw of additional interconnection capacity between the regional grids within india

globalization and developing countries a shrinking tax base abstract this paper evaluates the impact of globalisation on tax bases of countries at varying stages of development we see globalisation as a process that induces countries to embrace greater trade and financial integration this in turn should shift their tax revenue from easy to collect taxes tariffs and seigniorage towards hard to collect taxes value added and income taxes we find that trade and financial openness have a positive association with the hard to collect taxes and a negative association with the easy to collect taxes

an examination of the factors affecting the formation of interest groups in oecd countries perhaps the best way to summarize the empirical results is to classify the hypotheses into three groups those which can be readily accepted because they are supported in all tests those which can be readily rejected because no test results support them and those upon which one should remain agnostic because the test results are not consistent in the first group are population pop decentralization of government dcnt and length of time of modernization date one can state quite confidently that these three variables are determinants of interest group activity in the second group are the variables measuring characteristics of the political system poly dem1 dem2 pfrc one can with ease reject the hypotheses to which these variables are relevant there is a large group of variables which stand in the middle group however for these variables there are gradations of success in the tests the variables on socioeconomic development inc agri news and number of industries and political subdivisions nind regp are only significant in the one variable tests especially important is their failure to obtain the correct signs in the tests reported in table 3 the variables on ethnic fractionalization efrc and olson s hypothesis on destruction of groups ndfo have the correct signs in table 3 and are significant in table 1 thus it is more difficult to reject efrc and ndfo as determinants of interest group activity than inc nind and regp finally it should be mentioned that once appropriate simultaneous equations techniques are applied government size is no longer supported as a significant variable this paper will conclude with comments of a more conjectural nature on the implications of the results in the case of three specific variables first the results on hypothesis 3 suggest that population affects the number of interest groups independently of indirect effects through other variables this direct effect occurs because groups become proportionately smaller and more homogeneous as population increases hence one can expect the political economy of larger countries to be significantly different from that of smaller countries the results suggest that larger countries will have a denser array of interest groups and that these groups because of their homogeneity will find it easier to decide on and pursue policies in the narrow interests of their members secondly the results support olson s claim that there will be a gradual accumulation of interest groups in developed democracies given that olson attributes to interest groups a large role in determining the economic fortunes of a country the fact that his accumulation hypothesis is supported is a result of some significance finally if one accepts the two stage least squares results it has been shown that changes in government size do not induce changes in interest group activity an important conclusion can be reached when this result is taken in combination with the results of other studies which show that interest groups induce changes in the size of government mccormick and tollison 1981 and mueller and murrell 1983 these results do not support the capture theory of government that governmental institutions are created perhaps in the public interest and then dominated by interest groups rather the results support the theory that the institutions themselves are the creatures of interest group activity