effects of economic shocks on children s employment and schooling in brazil abstract this paper uses longitudinal employment survey data to analyze the impact of household economic shocks on the schooling and employment transitions of young people in metropolitan brazil the paper uses data on over 100 000 children ages 10 16 from brazil s monthly employment survey pme from 1982 to 1999 taking advantage of the rotating panels in the pme we compare households in which the male household head becomes unemployed during a four month period with households in which the head is continuously employed probit regressions indicate that an unemployment shock significantly increases the probability that a child enters the labor force drops out of school and fails to advance in school the effects can be large implying increases of as much as 50 in the probability of entering employment for 16 year old girls in contrast shocks occurring after the school year do not have significant effects suggesting that these results are not due to unobserved characteristics of households that experience unemployment shocks the results suggest that some households are not able to absorb short run economic shocks with negative consequences for children

remittances and the informal economy abstract many developing countries are characterized by a large informal sector and are also often heavily dependent on remittance inflows from abroad we develop a general equilibrium framework to understand better the dynamic absorption of remittances in a two sector small open economy by incorporating many of the stylized features of the informal sector calibrating the model to yield a long run equilibrium consistent with sample averages for 56 developing countries for the period 1990 2014 we show that the effect of remittances depends critically on how they impinge on the recipient economy i e whether these inflows are i permanent or temporary ii associated with a collateral effect to securitize borrowing and iii exogenous or countercyclical we also identify the conditions under which remittances are associated with an expansion of the informal sector as well as the dutch disease effect

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

remittances schooling and child labor in mexico abstract this paper studies the effects of remittances from the u s on child labor and school attendance in recipient mexican households we identify these effects using the impact of the 2008 2009 u s recession on remittance receipts the methodology employed is a differences in differences strategy that compares households that were remittance recipients before the crisis with never recipient households to avoid possible selection problems we instrument for membership in the remittance recipient group we find that the negative shock on remittance receipts caused a significant increase in child labor and a significant reduction of school attendance

the impacts of international migration on remaining household members omnibus results from a migration lottery program this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled the impacts of international migration on remaining household members omnibus results from a migration lottery program conducted in 2002 in tonga the study observed the impact of migration lottery program on the remaining household members of tongan emigrants on the individual and intra household level income falls rapidly by 22 to 25 percent with a rise in remittances failing to offset a large fall in labor earnings ownership of livestock durable and access to financial services is lower for the remaining household members diets change to be less nutritious and more rice and root crops immigration has a negative impact on household size there is no significant impact of migration on labor supply for men nor women funding for the study derived from the world bank stanford university the waikato management school and mardsen fund

tests of three parity conditions distinguishing risk premia and systematic forecast errors abstract this study provides evidence that uncovered interest differentials between currencies cannot be attributed to either risk premia or systematic forecast errors alone the evidence is based on developing joint tests of three parity conditions uncovered interest parity purchasing power parity and real interest parity the study tests parameter restrictions based on knowing that risk premiums only affect nominal and real interest differentials but not inflation differentials while systematic errors in forecasting exchange rates only affect nominal interest differentials and inflation differentials but not real interest differentials the study finds a variety of cases where deviations from some or all of the parity conditions can be systematically related to variables currently known to investors and borrowers the most intriguing evidence is that for some currencies these deviations from parity are perfectly correlated as if they were driven by a common factor

labour migration and social networks participation in southern mozambique this paper investigates how social networks in poor developing settings are affected by migration using a unique household survey from southern mozambique we test the role of labour mobility in shaping participation in groups and interhousehold cooperation by migrant sending households in village economies at origin we find that migration cum remittances boosts household engagement in community based social networks our findings are robust to alternative definitions of social interaction and to endogeneity concerns suggesting that stable migration ties and higher income stability through remittances may decrease participation constraints and increase household commitment in cooperative arrangements in migrant sending communities

seasonal migration to mitigate income seasonality evidence from bangladesh in northwest bangladesh some 36 percent of poor households migrate every year during the lean monga period to cope with seasonal deprivation analysis of household survey data shows that the probability of seasonal migration is high for households with a high dependency ratio high dependency on wage employment and in villages with high unemployment but low in villages with microcredit access findings show that seasonal migration helps households to smooth consumption and those non migrant households who suffer during monga will likely benefit from deciding to migrate but the cost of migration and lack of networking are potential barriers the paper is structured as follows section one gives introduction the second section discusses the data and its major characteristics such as the incidence of seasonal migration as a coping strategy and its relation to seasonal hardships measured by starvation and meal rationing the third section presents an analytical framework of how seasonal migration can help smooth consumption during the lean season the fourth section analyses the determinants of seasonal migration while the fifth section assesses the potential effect of seasonal migration on rural households consumption smoothing behavior finally section six summarizes the study findings and their policy implications

child labor and agricultural shocks this paper examines the relationship between household income shocks and child labor in particular we investigate the extent to which transitory income shocks lead to increases in child labor and whether household asset holdings mitigate the effects of these shocks using data from a household panel survey in tanzania we find that both relationships are significant we investigate mechanisms that could account for these results including buffer stocks and borrowing

migration remittances and poverty in ecuador abstractwe analyse the influence of the recent wave of migration on the incidence of poverty among stayers in ecuador we draw our data from a survey that provides detailed information on migrants the analysis reveals a significant negative effect of migration on poverty among migrant households this effect is substantially smaller than the one that we find focusing on recipient households we explore the factors that account for this divergence our analysis entails that the existing empirical evidence on the relationship between remittances and poverty does not need to be informative about the size of the direct poverty reduction potential of migration

random walk expectations and the forward discount puzzle nber working paper seriesrandom walk expectations and the forward discount puzzlephilippe bacchettaeric van wincoopworking paper 13205http www nber org papers w13205national bureau of economic research1050 massachusetts avenuecambridge ma 02138june 2007we are grateful to adriano rampini for comments the paper was written while van wincoop visitedthe hong kong institute for monetary research van wincoop acknowledges financial support fromthe institute bacchetta acknowledges financial support by the national centre of competence in research financial valuation and risk management nccr finrisk the views expressed herein are thoseof the author s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the national bureau of economic research 2007 by philippe bacchetta and eric van wincoop all rights reserved short sections of text notto exceed two paragraphs may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit including notice is given to the source

economics of pooling small local electricity prosumers lcoe self consumption abstract the arrival of small scale decentralized energy installations coincides with the emergence of so called prosumers entities households that are producer and consumer of energy in one this research focuses on an electricity prosumer model in the context of the uk market levelized cost of electricity lcoe for photovoltaic pv and wind energy will be modeled for six uk sites additionally self consumption levels for two different load profiles and technologies will be estimated per site the simulations are modeled with homer software and multiple inputs will be varied including natural resource equipment cost maintenance cost equipment life expectancy cost of capital project life and load profiles the modeled self consumption levels show significant differences and varied between 31 and 72 depending on load profile itself and re technologies mixes modeled the pooling of prosumers implied by lower load profile volatility proved to be beneficial to self consumption levels in the modeled scenarios up to 17 6 lcoe showed significant ranges depending on the input parameters and their combination 10 55 p kw h for pv and 2 19 p kw h for wind the combination of these factors is decisive for the final lcoe and the negative effects of less benign factors can be compensated by other parameters when compared to current electricity retail prices of around 15 p kw h around 97 of wind sites and around 4 of pv scenarios implied lcoe reached grid parity the self consumption levels and lcoe analysis indicate the viability of electricity prosumer models

remittances investment and rural asset accumulation in pakistan internal and external migration can have a profound impact on rural asset accumulation in most third world countries in many african asian and latin american countries the bulk of the labor force still lives in the countryside in these countries the large difference between expected rural and urban or foreign incomes coupled with the risk reducing functions of migration causes workers to migrate either to urban centers or abroad the remittances defined as the money or goods sent home by migrant workers can have a large effect on the accumulation of assets in these rural areas for example an inflow of external remittances to rural households at the upper end of the income distribution could increase land accumulation by the rich in general terms the effect of remittances on asset accumulation in a rural third world economy depends on answers to three questions a who migrates b how much net income do migrants remit and c what are the marginal effects of these remittances on household consumption and investment because of data limitations in this article i propose to examine only the first and the third questions other researchers have addressed the second issue in the past surprisingly little attention has been focused on the question of the marginal effects of remittances on household consumption and investment in the rural third world this inattention has been due to three considerable methodological problems the first is fungibility because remittances are like any other form of cash income it is difficult to associate this income source with any particular changes in household expenditure behavior the second problem relates to the multiple round effects of remittances on the local economy for example an inflow of remittances into a rural area may lead to a surge in expenditures in housing which may in turn create new income and employment opportunities for the poor and unskilled unfortunately however few studies have

do workers remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals the authors combine the literature on financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies with that on international migrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workers remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals the rationale for this stands in the great stability and low cyclicality of remittances as compared with other private capital flows these properties combined with the fact that remittances are cheap inflows of foreign currencies might reduce the probability that foreign investors suddenly flee out of emerging markets and developing economies and trigger a dramatic current account adjustment the authors find that remittances can have such a beneficial effect in particular they show that a high level of remittances as a ratio of gdp makes the relationship between a decreasing stock of international reserves over gdp and a higher probability of current account crises less stringent the same occurs though less neatly for the positive relationship between an increasing stock of external debt over gdp and the probability of current account reversals the results point also to a threshold effect of remittances the mechanisms just described are in fact much stronger when remittances are above 3 percent of gdp

controlling for the underreporting of remittances empirical studies that use self reported data on remittances to measure the latter s impact on microeconomic incentives mostly ignore the potential errors associated with reporting measurement issues an econometric procedure to control for these errors is developed and applied to household level data from armenia we find evidence of systematic underreporting of remittances after controlling for this we find a strong negative impact of remittances on incentives to work

no man left behind effects of emigration prospects on educational and labour outcomes of non migrants the development impacts of emigration are largely determined by the education of those who stay behind departure of workers leads to a direct loss of human capital but opportunities for emigration also raise expected returns to education i examine these effects by considering the introduction of education as a selection criterion to recruit nepalese men in the british army this change raised educational investments by 1 15 years and increased the average education of men living in nepal even after allowing for emigration despite not being selected in the british army or emigrating elsewhere these non migrants benefited directly from additional schooling

the economics of child labor if child labor as a mass phenomenon occurs not because of parental selfishness but because of the parents concern for the household s survival the popular argument for banning child labor loses much of its force however this assumption about parental decision making coupled with the assumption of substitutability in production between child and adult labor could result in multiple equilibria in the labor market with one equilibrium where children work and another where adult wage is high and children do not work the paper establishes this result and discusses its policy implications copyright 1998 by american economic association

do migrants improve governance at home evidence from a voting experiment can international migration promote better institutions at home by raising the demand for political accountability a behavioral measure of the population s desire for better governance was designed to examine this question a postcard was distributed to households promising that if enough postcards were mailed back results from a survey module on perceived corruption would be published in the national media data from a tailored household survey were used to examine the determinants of this behavioral measure of demand for political accountability undertaking the costly action of mailing the postcard and to isolate the positive effect of international emigration using locality level variation the estimated effects are robust to the use of instrumental variables including past migration and macro shocks in the destination countries the estimated effects can be attributed mainly to migrants who immigrated to countries with better governance especially migrants who return home

convergence rates to purchasing power parity for traded and nontraded goods this article estimates the speed of the adjustment coefficient in structural error correction models we use a system method for real exchange rates of traded and nontraded goods by combining a single equation method with hansen and sargent s instrumental variables methods for linear rational expectations models we apply these methods to a modified version of mussa s model our results show that the half lives of purchasing power parity deviations for the rates of traded goods are less than 1 year and are shorter than those for general price and for nontraded goods in most cases implying a faster adjustment speed to parity

irving fisher and the fisher relation setting the record straight william j crowder 1997 1124 1127 states that the fisher hypothesis represents one of the oldest and most basic equilibrium relationships in financial economics the fisher equation encapsulates the simple relationship hypothesized to exist between nominal interest rates and expected inflation first delineated by irving fisher 1930 whose name has been associated with the equation ever since crowder s first sentence is indisputable the other sentence quoted presents a belief that seems almost universal in the literature on the fisher relation as distinct from the history of economic thought literature about irving fisher it credits fisher with one of the few innovations in the area for which he does not deserve and did not claim credit neglects what he did contribute on related topics and views the theory of interest 1930 as his first presentation of the relationship a third of a century later than his classic reformulation of the relation the celebrated equation which appears in fisher s american economic association monograph appreciation and interest 1896 and in an appendix to his the rate of interest 1907 does not appear in the theory of interest where the treatment of the relation in chapters 2 and 19 is verbal supplemented with diagrams but no equation in appreciation and interest 1896 fisher drew attention to statements by william douglass john stuart mill alfred marshall jacob de haas and john bates clark of how expected inflation or deflation affects nominal interest and he made no claim to originality on the point writing at the end of a thirty year period of declining prices fisher referred in his title to appreciation of the purchasing power of money rather than to depreciation fisher was the first to write down the relation as an equation but not the first to articulate the relation while endorsing

can renewables etc solve the greenhouse problem the negative case abstract virtually all current discussion of climate change and energy problems proceeds on the assumption that technical solutions are possible within basically affluent consumer societies there is however a substantial case that this assumption is mistaken this case derives from a consideration of the scale of the tasks and of the limits of non carbon energy sources focusing especially on the need for redundant capacity in winter the first line of argument is to do with the extremely high capital cost of the supply system that would be required and the second is to do with the problems set by the intermittency of renewable sources it is concluded that the general climate change and energy problem cannot be solved without large scale reductions in rates of economic production and consumption and therefore without transition to fundamentally different social structures and systems

electricity in europe exiting fossil fuels there are many options for generating electricity with low carbon emissions and the elec trification of heat and transport can decarbonize energy use across the economy this places the power sector at the forefront of any move away from fossil fuels even though fossil fuelled generators are more dependable and flexible than nuclear reactors or intermittent renewables and vital for the second by second balancing of supply and demand renewables tend to supplement rather than replace fos sil capacity although output from fossil fuelled stations will fall and some will have to retire to avoid depressing wholesale power prices at times of low demand and high renewable output prices can turn negative but electricity storage long distance interconnection and flexible demand may develop to absorb any excess generation simulations for great britain show that while coal may be eliminated from the mix within a decade natural gas has a long term role in stations with or without carbon cap ture and storage depending on its cost and the price of carbon

the elasticity of the migrant labour supply evidence from temporary filipino migrants the effect of immigration on host and origin countries is mediated by the way migrants take their labour supply decisions we propose a simple way of integrating the traditional random utility maximisation model used to analyse location decisions with a classical labour demand function at destination our setup allows us to estimate a general upper bound on the elasticity of the migrant labour supply that we take to the data using the evolution of the numbers and wages of temporary overseas filipino workers between 1992 and 2009 to different destinations we find that the migrant labour supply elasticity can be very large temporary migrants are very reactive to economic conditions in their potential destinations

does migration raise agricultural investment an empirical analysis for rural mexico the effect of remittances on capital accumulation remains a contested topic this paper uses a panel data set from rural mexico to investigate the impact of remittances on agriculture and livestock investments after controlling for the endogeneity of migration through an instrumental variable estimation our empirical results show that international migration has a significantly positive effect on the accumulated agricultural assets but not on livestock capital this suggests that households use the capital obtained from international migration only to overcome liquidity constraints for subsistence production whereas migration itself seems to be the superior investment option compared to other productive activities such as livestock husbandry

is child labor inefficient we build a model of child labor and study its implications for welfare we assume that there is a trade off between child labor and the accumulation of human capital even if parents are altruistic and child labor is socially inefficient it may arise in equilibrium because parents fail to fully internalize its negative effects this occurs when bequests are zero or when capital markets are imperfect we also study the effects of a simple ban on child labor and derive conditions under which it may be pareto improving in general equilibrium we show that the implications of child labor for fertility are ambiguous

school attendance child labour and remittances from international migration in el salvador abstract international migrant remittances can increase household budget and reduce liquidity constraint problems generating consumption and investment opportunities for recipient households in particular remittances can enable investing in children s human capital and reduce child labour key outcomes from the perspective of growth in a developing country using data for el salvador this article shows a a null or insignificant overall impact of remittances on schooling b a strong reduction of child wage labour in remittance recipient households and c an increase in unpaid family work activities for children in those households moreover the evidence shows important differences by gender and age of the child in consideration while girls seem to indeed increase school attendance upon remittance receipts by reducing labour activities boys do not benefit on average from higher schooling but some time substitution takes place favouring family work activities over paid jobs and among secondary sc

the effect of male migration on employment patterns of women in nepal what is the impact of male migration on the labor market behavior of women in nepal the instrumental variable full information maximum likelihood method is applied to data from the 2004 nepal household survey to account for unobserved factors that could simultaneously affect men s decision to migrate and women s decision to participate in the labor market the results indicate that male migration has a negative impact on the level of the labor market participation by women in the migrant sending household there is evidence of substantial heterogeneity based on both observable and unobservable characteristics in the impact of male migration the findings highlight the important gender dimension of the impact of predominantly male migration on the well being of sending households strategies for economic development in nepal should take into account such gender aspects of the migration dynamics

bridging trade theory and labour econometrics the effects of international migration this paper surveys current theoretical and empirical research on international migration with a particular emphasis on the links between trade theory and labour empirics

the transition towards renewable energies physical limits and temporal conditions abstract the perspectives of the depletion of fossil energy resources together with the consequences of climate change have provoked the development of numerous national and pluri national energy policies however there have been few overall studies on the evolution of these resources this paper uses a dynamic model to study the exhaustion patterns of world fossil and nuclear fuels and their possible replacement by renewable energy sources the results show that peak oil will be the first restriction and it will not be easily overcome electric vehicles can produce some interesting savings but they are insufficient to avoid the decline in oil biofuels are even more limited due to the enormous extensions of fertile land they require and their low productivity this shows that overcoming the decline in oil will need much more ambitious policies than the mere substitution of technology if the oil economy relationship does not change substantially world economic growth may be seriously limited or even negative in contrast the production of electrical energy is not such a worrying problem in the short and middle term

the feasibility of 100 renewable electricity systems a response to critics abstract the rapid growth of renewable energy re is disrupting and transforming the global energy system especially the electricity industry as a result supporters of the politically powerful incumbent industries and others are critiquing the feasibility of large scale electricity generating systems based predominantly on re part of this opposition is manifest in the publication of incorrect myths about renewable electricity relec in scholarly journals popular articles media websites blogs and statements by politicians the aim of the present article is to use current scientific and engineering theory and practice to refute the principal myths it does this by showing that large scale electricity systems that are 100 renewable 100relec including those whose renewable sources are predominantly variable e g wind and solar pv can be readily designed to meet the key requirements of reliability security and affordability it also argues that transition to 100relec could occur much more rapidly than suggested by historical energy transitions it finds that the main critiques published in scholarly articles and books contain factual errors questionable assumptions important omissions internal inconsistencies exaggerations of limitations and irrelevant arguments some widely publicised critiques select criteria that are inappropriate and or irrelevant to the assessment of energy technologies ignore studies whose results contradict arguments in the critiques and fail to assess the sum total of knowledge provided collectively by the published studies on 100relec but instead demand that each individual study address all the critiques inappropriate criteria we find that the principal barriers to 100relec are neither technological nor economic but instead are primarily political institutional and cultural

remittances transaction costs and informality abstract recorded workers remittances to developing countries reached 167 billion in 2005 bringing increasing attention to these flows as a potential tool for development in this paper we explore the determinants of remittances and their associated transaction costs we find that recorded remittances depend positively on the stock of migrants and negatively on transfer costs and exchange rate restrictions in turn transfer costs are lower when financial systems are more developed and exchange rates less volatile the negative impact of transactions costs on remittances suggests that migrants either refrain from sending money home or else remit through informal channels when costs are high we provide evidence from household surveys supportive of a sizeable informal sector

household income as a determinant of child labor and school enrollment in brazil evidence from a social security reform abstractthis article studies the effects of household income on labor participation and school enrollment of children aged 10 14 in brazil using a social security reform as a source of exogenous variation in household income i find that increased benefits are associated with increases in school enrollment for girls as well as a smaller reduction in their labor participation but i find no effects for boys i also uncover evidence that the gender of the benefit receiver matters for girls labor variables only benefits received by females reduce girls work

remittances entrepreneurship and employment dynamics over the business cycle abstract we incorporate remittances and micro entrepreneurship self employment into a small open economy business cycle model with capital and labor market frictions countercyclical remittances moderate the decline of households consumption during recessions these remittances also are used to finance the start up costs of microenterprises that bolster households income during economic downturns we show that the positive income effect from countercyclical remittances also leads to a decrease in salaried labor supply which generates offsetting upward pressure on wages during recessions and adversely affects the recovery of the economy consistent with the microeconomic evidence the behavior of remittances decisively affects labor force participation and the composition of employment between non salaried and salaried employment over the business cycle the model delivers labor market and aggregate cyclical dynamics that are consistent with the mexican data including a highly volatile and countercyclical unemployment rate

migration remittances and capital accumulation evidence from rural mexico this paper studies the link between migration remittances and productive assets accumulation for a panel of poor rural households in mexico over the period 19972006 in a context of nancial markets imperfections migration may act as a substitute for imperfect credit and insurance provision through remittances from migrants and thus exert a positive eect on investment however it may well be the case that remittances are channelled towards increasing consumption and leisure goods exploiting within family variation and an instrumental variable strategy we show that migration indeed accelerates productive assets accumulation moreover when we look at the eect of migration on consumption of non productive assets durable goods we nd instead a negative eect our results then suggest that

migration networks and microenterprises in mexico are migration networks associated with lower capital costs or the alleviation of capital constraints we examine these questions with data measuring access to remittance flows among small scale entrepreneurs in mexico using a survey of more than 6000 self employed workers and small firm owners located in 44 urban areas of mexico we estimate the impact of attachment to migration networks on the level of capital investment the capital output ratio sales and profits of microenterprises the impact is identified from the geographic pattern of migration from mexico driven by the completion of rail lines in the early 1900s for the full sample of firms we find that migration is associated with higher investment levels and higher profits but not higher sales the strongest effects on investment are in the categories of automobiles tools and inventories when the sample is limited to firms in high capital sectors investment sales and profits all increase with attachment to the migration networks suggesting that attachment to the migration network alleviates capital constraints in those sectors

remittances and financial inclusion evidence from el salvador this paper investigates the impact of remittances on financial inclusion this is an important issue given recent studies showing that financial inclusion can have significant beneficial effects on households using household level survey data for el salvador the authors examine the impact of remittances on households use of savings and credit instruments from formal financial institutions they find that although remittances have a positive impact on financial inclusion by promoting the use of deposit accounts they do not have a significant and robust effect on the demand for and use of credit from formal institutions if anything by relaxing credit constraints remittances might reduce the need for external financing from financial institutions while at the same time increasing the demand for savings instruments

accounting for selectivity and duration dependent heterogeneity when estimating the impact of emigration on incomes and poverty in sending areas the impacts of international emigration and remittances on incomes and poverty in sending areas are increasingly studied with household survey data but comparing households with and without emigrants is complicated by a triple selectivity problem first households self select into emigration second in some emigrant households everyone moves while others leave members behind and third some emigrants choose to return to the origin country allowing for duration dependent heterogeneity introduces a fourth form of selectivity one must now worry not just about whether households migrate but also when they do so this paper clearly sets out these selectivity issues and their implications for existing migration studies and then addresses them by using survey data designed specifically to take advantage of a randomized lottery that determines which applicants to the over subscribed samoan quota may immigrate to new zealand the analysis compares incomes and poverty rates among left behind members in households in samoa that sent samoan quota emigrants with those for members of similar households that were unsuccessful in the lottery policy rules control who can accompany the principal migrant providing an instrument to address the second selectivity problem while differences among migrants in which year their ballot was selected allow for estimation of duration effects the authors find that migration reduced poverty among former household members but they also find suggestive evidence that this effect may be short lived as both remittances and agricultural income are negatively related to the duration that the migrant has been abroad

remittances and competitiveness the case of the philippines summary the paper looks at the impact of migration and workers remittances on the competitiveness of the home economy it extends existing research that concentrated on the exchange rate effects of remittances the so called dutch disease effect by adding labor market effects the results show that the labor market effects of emigration and remittances have a significant impact on competitiveness that goes beyond the traditional exchange rate effect

the optimal migration duration and activity choice after re migration if migrants return to their origin countries two questions arise which are of immediate economic interest for both immigration and emigration country what determines their optimal migration duration and what are the activities migrants choose after a return little research has been devoted to these two issues this paper utilises a unique survey data set which records activities of returned migrants we first illustrate the activities of immigrants after returning we show that more than half of the returning migrants are economically active after return and most of them engage in entrepreneurial activities we then develop a model where migrants decide simultaneously about the optimal migration duration and their after return activities guided by this model we specify and estimate an empirical model where the after return activity and the optimal migration duration are simultaneously chosen

a gravity model of remittance determinants evidence from latin america and the caribbean abstracta gravity model of remittance determinants evidence from latin america and the caribbean regional studies this paper constructs a microeconomic model of the motivation for remittances and uses it to explore the macroeconomic determinants in addition a new measure of bilateral remittances is used to estimate a gravity model of remittances for 27 latin american and caribbean countries and 18 industrialized countries the results suggest remittances are motivated by a combination of altruism and self interest both of which are encapsulated by economic and non economic variables

the effects of international migration on migrant source households evidence from ethiopian diversity visa lottery migrants about a million people have migrated to the us via the diversity visa dv lottery the dv was instituted by an act of the united states congress to diversify the u s population through a lottery made available to people from countries with historically low rates of immigration to the country in any given year the probability of winning the lottery is less than 1 with millions of people from around the world competing for a maximum of 55 000 immigrant visas that can be obtained through this migration channel using ethiopian dv participants which have consistently made up between 6 and 8 of all dv immigrants i study the causal effects of emigration on the well being of the migrant sending families i infer that migration contributes positively to the welfare of the source families overall migration increases consumer expenditure but has no effect on savings and business ownership of the senders the positive treatment effects do not diminish with duration of emigration migrant men contribute more to the increase in their families standard of living than their female counterparts do while expenditure on food and energy are invariant to the migrants gender the gains in terms of durable ownership access to clean water and sanitation facilities occur almost entirely in families where the emigrants are men i find that dv participants are favorably selected relative to the overall population

remittances and the wage impact of immigration this paper examines how the outflow of remittances affect the wages of native workers the model shows that the wage impact of immigration depends on the competing effects of an increase in labor market competition and an increase in the consumer base immigrant remittances provide a unique way of isolating this latter effect because they reduce the consumer base but not the workforce the predictions of the model are tested using an unusually rich german data set that has detailed information on remittances and wages as expected the results indicate that a 1 percent increase in remittances depress the wages of native workers by 0 06 percent furthermore remittances predominantly affect workers in nontraded industries that are more reliant on domestic consumption

international migration remittances and household investment evidence from philippine migrants exchange rate shocks how do households respond to overseas members economic shocks overseas filipinos in dozens of countries experienced sudden heterogeneous changes in exchange rates during the 1997 asian financial crisis appreciation of a migrant s currency against the philippine peso leads to increases in household remittances from overseas the estimated elasticity of philippine peso remittances with respect to the exchange rate is 0 60 positive migrant shocks lead to enhanced human capital accumulation and entrepreneurship in origin households child schooling and educational expenditure rise while child labour falls households also work more hours in self employment and become more likely to start relatively capital intensive household enterprises

equilibrium relationships between money and other economic variables central to the quantity theory of money are a number of important propositions about the long run equilibrium effects of changes in the nominal stock of money on other economic variables a standard way of testing these propositions is to use quarterly or annual data explicitly model the lag structure and then derive the long run solution of the model from the empirical estimates an alternative is to use some type of smoothing procedure to approximate positions of equilibrium and then to use these transformed data directly in testing hypotheses the national bureau technique of averaging data over reference cycle phases is one such method robert lucas s application of fourier transforms in two illustrations of the quantity theory of money 1980 is another and john geweke s method 1982 of frequency decomposition is a third an entirely different way of approaching the problem is to use cross country average rather than time series data as the basic units of observation the advantage according to lucas is that since the two quantity theoretic laws that he examines are obtained as characteristics of steady states or limiting distributions of theoretical models the ideal experiment for testing them would be a comparison of long term average behavior across economies with different monetary policies but similar in other respects p 1006 in this paper i conduct such an experiment the data that i use are for 20 oecd countries over the period 1956 80 the specific relationships that i examine are those between money and the price level money and real income money and interest rates and money and exchange rates in the main the data accord well with the quantity theoretic model classical neutrality holds there is evidence of a fisher effect albeit a less than complete effect on interest rates finally the data are consistent with long run purchasing power parity and hence correspondingly with a long run monetary approach to exchange rate determination

why do migrants return to poor countries evidence from philippine migrants responses to exchange rate shocks abstract this paper distinguishes between target earnings and life cycle motivations for return migration by examining how philippine migrants return decisions respond to major unexpected exchange rate changes in their overseas locations due to the asian financial crisis overall the evidence favors the life cycle explanation more favorable exchange rate shocks lead to fewer migrant returns a10 improvement in the exchange rate reduces the 12 month return rate by 1 4 percentage points however some migrants appear motivated by target earnings considerations in households with intermediate foreign earnings favorable exchange rate shocks have the least effect on return migration but lead to increases in household investment

remittances and public finances evidence from oil price shocks we study the effect of inflowing remittances a major source of capital for many countries on tax revenues and tax policy instrumenting remittances with changes in the oil price interacted with a country s distance to oil producing countries we find that remittances have a large positive effect on vat revenues but no effect on income tax revenues this suggests that remittances often escape the income tax but can be taxed via consumption we further show that tax policy is responsive to shocks in incoming remittances remittances make the adoption of vat systems more likely and they lead to lower vat rates and higher income tax rates

abandoning the concept of renewable energy abstract renewable energy is a widely used term that describes certain types of energy production in politics business and academia renewable energy is often framed as the key solution to the global climate challenge we however argue that the concept of renewable energy is problematic and should be abandoned in favor of more unambiguous conceptualization building on the theoretical literature on framing and based on document analysis case examples and statistical data we discuss how renewable energy is framed and has come to be a central energy policy concept and analyze how its use has affected the way energy policy is debated and conducted we demonstrate the key problems the concept of renewable energy has in terms of sustainability incoherence policy impacts bait and switch tactics and generally misleading nature after analyzing these issues we discuss alternative conceptualizations and present our model of categorizing energy production according to carbon content and combustion the paper does not intend to criticize or promote any specific form of energy production but instead discusses the role of institutional conceptualization in energy policy

can parental migration reduce petty corruption in education the income generated from parental migration can increase funds available for children s education in countries where informal payments to teachers are common migration could therefore increase petty corruption in education this hypothesis is tested by investigating the effect of migration on educational inputs an instrumental variables approach is used on survey data and matched administrative records from the world bank s open budget initiative boost from moldova one of the countries with the highest emigration rates contrary to the positive income effect the strongest migration related response in private education expenditure that is found is a substantial decrease in informal payments to public school teachers any positive income effect due to migration must hence be overcompensated by some payment reducing effects a number of potential explanations at the family level school level or community level are discussed several of these explanations ruled out and possible interpretations for future research highlighted

international migration remittances and schooling evidence from el salvador abstract we examine the effect of remittances from abroad on households schooling decisions using data for el salvador following the massive war related emigration of the 1980s remittances became a significant source of household income throughout the 1990s we use the cox proportional hazard model to examine the determinants of school attendance measuring income from a source that is uncorrelated with parental schooling remittances we find that remittances have a large significant effect on school retention we estimate that while household income net of remittances has a small though significant impact on the hazard of leaving school in rural and urban areas remittances have a much larger impact on the hazard of leaving school in urban areas the effect of remittances is at its smallest 10 times the size of the effect of other income in rural areas the effect of remittances is about 2 6 times that of other income our finding is of interest in that it suggests that subsidizing school attendance particularly in poor areas may have a large impact on school attendance and retention even if parents have low levels of schooling

do the return intentions of french migrants affect their transfer behaviour abstractthis paper investigates to what extent the return behaviour of migrants affects their transfer decisions both at the extensive and intensive margins we use a unique data set collected on migrants aged 45 70 living in france with detailed information on both return intentions at retirement and on private transfers we find that the temporary nature of migration strongly influences the pattern of transfers made by migrants the probability of remitting for either personal savings or to family members in the origin country increases by more than 10 percentage points with return plans the latter having no effect on gifts to family members living in france at the intensive margin the amount of personal savings sent to the origin country is about twice as high for migrants who intend to return

the impact of international remittances on child outcomes and household expenditures in nepal abstractnepal has one of the highest ratios of international remittances to gross domestic product in the world we examine whether the massive inflow of international remittances affects child schooling child labour and household expenses controlling extensively for a host of observed characteristics of households and migrants and using an instrumental variable approach this research finds no effect of international remittances on child education or child labour in nepal however it does find a significant increase in non food expenditures including education spending due to international remittances despite increased expenditure on child education educational outcomes are not improving because of international remittances

remittances and the use of formal and informal financial services summary while recent literature has pointed to a positive effect of migrants remittances on the financial development of receiving countries findings with respect to access to and the use of loans have been ambiguous this paper investigates the effect of remittances on the use of formal and informal financial services using mexican household data and finds positive and statistically significant effects of remittances on the ownership of savings accounts the existence of debts and on recent borrowing the fact that the effect of remittances on borrowing is driven by informal finance rather than by traditional bank loans points to deficiencies of the formal financial sector in addressing the financial needs of remittance receiving households we address methodological concerns of selection bias and reverse causality through household fixed effects and an instrumental strategy that exploits distance to train lines and labor market conditions in the us as exogenous determinants of remittances

international migration and child labour in developing countries this paper investigates the labor market effect of international migration on child work in countries of origin we use an original cross country survey dataset which combines information on international migration with detailed individual level data on child labour at age 5 14 in a wide range of developing countries by exploiting both within and cross country variation and controlling for country fixed effects we find strong and robust evidence on the role of international mobility of workers in reducing child labour in disadvantaged households through changes in the local labour market

migration and incomes in source communities a new economics of migration perspective from china the objective of this paper is to understand the effects of china s migration on source communities and to discuss their policy implications we draw from new economics of labor migration nelm theory to understand how migration and migrant remittances can relax or tighten market constraints in china s rural economy using simultaneous equation econometric techniques and household survey data from china we estimate net sectorspecific effects of migration on rural household income focusing on farm production and self employment our econometric findings indicate that the loss of labor to migration has a negative effect on household cropping income in source areas however we provide evidence that remittances sent home by migrants positively compensate for this lost labor effect contributing to household incomes directly and indirectly by stimulating crop and possibly self employment production this finding offers evidence in support of the nelm hypothesis that remittances loosen constraints on production in the imperfect market environments characterizing rural areas in less developed countries taking into account both the multiple effects of migration and the change in household size participating in migration increases household per capita income between 14 and 30 percent migration and incomes in source communities a new economics of migration perspective from china china is experiencing the largest peacetime flow of labor out of agriculture ever witnessed in world history solinger 1999 rozelle et al 1999 despite the rapid expansion of labor migration china s work force is still disproportionately employed in agriculture compared to other countries at similar levels of per capita gdp taylor and martin 2001 hence as china s economy continues to expand the flow of labor to urban areas will continue and even accelerate johnson 1999 the massive flow of labor away from farms has intensified research interest in china s migration in recent years however as in the broader literature on migration in less developed countries most recent studies on china s migration have focused on determining the size and composition of the labor flow macroeconomic implications of increased migration and the effects of migration on urban areas zhao 1999 yang 1999 1997 less emphasis has been placed on researching the effects of migration on the rural communities that migrants leave even though evidence shows that the rural household in the village of origin is typically the central concern of all those involved in migration both those who leave and those who stay behind exceptions include wang and zuo 1999 bai 2001 moreover the recent increase in migration has left policy makers particularly concerned regarding the way source communities will be affected moa 1999 they are concerned that as labor flows away from farms food production and crop income will decline potentially threatening china s food security furthermore policy makers are concerned about the increasing gap between urban and rural household incomes if migration exacerbates this gap some fear that as it grows rural residents eventually will flood cities ill equipped to absorb them others fear that discontent over a rising urban rural income gap could even spill over into political unrest yang 1999 because china s markets and other modern economic institutions are still relatively undeveloped migration may play a pivotal role in creating or overcoming constraints caused by the lack of well functioning markets and or institutions knight and song 1999 benjamin and brandt 2000 the new economics of labor migration nelm literature analyzes migration as a household decision rather than as an individual decision stark 1991 the nelm hypothesizes that rural households facing imperfect market environments decide

an empirical analysis of remittance flows into west african economic and monetary union a panel time series approach abstractthe article empirically analyses the motivations and long run economic outcomes of remittance inflows into the west african economic and monetary union using westerlund s 2007 ecm for panel time series and data spanning 1975 2011 the results show that there is no evidence of a long run impact of remittances on income per capita in the region the inflows seem to be motivated by investment but the money may be used to promote consumption instead this phenomenon could be characterized by information asymmetry between migrants and the recipients

burden of proof a comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100 renewable electricity systems an effective response to climate change demands rapid replacement of fossil carbon energy sources this must occur concurrently with an ongoing rise in total global energy consumption while many modelled scenarios have been published claiming to show that a 100 renewable electricity system is achievable there is no empirical or historical evidence that demonstrates that such systems are in fact feasible of the studies published to date 24 have forecast regional national or global energy requirements at sufficient detail to be considered potentially credible we critically review these studies using four novel feasibility criteria for reliable electricity systems needed to meet electricity demand this century these criteria are 1 consistency with mainstream energy demand forecasts 2 simulating supply to meet demand reliably at hourly half hourly and five minute timescales with resilience to extreme climate events 3 identifying necessary transmission and distribution requirements and 4 maintaining the provision of essential ancillary services evaluated against these objective criteria none of the 24 studies provides convincing evidence that these basic feasibility criteria can be met of a maximum possible unweighted feasibility score of seven the highest score for any one study was four eight of 24 scenarios 33 provided no form of system simulation twelve 50 relied on unrealistic forecasts of energy demand while four studies 17 all regional articulated transmission requirements only two scenarios drawn from the same study addressed ancillary service requirements in addition to feasibility issues the heavy reliance on exploitation of hydroelectricity and biomass raises concerns regarding environmental sustainability and social justice strong empirical evidence of feasibility must be demonstrated for any study that attempts to construct or model a low carbon energy future based on any combination of low carbon technology on the basis of this review efforts to date seem to have substantially underestimated the challenge and delayed the identification and implementation of effective and comprehensive decarbonization pathways

land property rights and international migration evidence from mexico abstract in this paper i ask whether there is a relationship between land property rights and international migration in order to identify the impact of property rights i consider a country wide land certification program that took place in mexico in the 1990s my identification strategy exploits the staggered implementation and the households eligibility for the program i find that the program increased the eligible households likelihood of having one or more members abroad by 12 in terms of the number of migrants my coefficient estimates explain 26 of the 1994 1997 increase in migrants from ejido areas and 13 15 of the increase from all of mexico consistent with our theoretical model the impact is strongest for households without a land will this implies that land inheritance issues drive at least part of the effect

do remittances lead to a public moral hazard in developing countries an empirical investigation abstract this article tests the hypothesis that in a context of bad governance remittance inflows strongly reduce public spending on education and health in receiving countries a phenomenon called the public moral hazard problem using a large sample of 86 developing countries over the period 1996 2007 and after factoring in the endogeneity of remittances the results suggest a negative impact of remittances on public spending on education and health when governance is bad in remittance dependent economies

international capital markets and foreign exchange risk author s brennan michael j xia yihong abstract the relation between the volatilities of pricing kernels associated with di erent currencies and the volatility of the exchange rate between the currencies is derived under the assumption of integrated capital markets and the volatilities of the pricing kernels are related to the foreign exchange risk premium time series of pricing kernel volatilities are estimated from panel data on bond yields for five major currencies using a parsimonious term structure model that allows for time varying pricing kernel volatilities the resulting estimates are used to test hypotheses about the relation between the volatilities of the pricing kernels in di erent currencies and the volatility of the exchange rate as predicted time variation in foreign exchange risk premia is found to be related to time variation in both the volatility of the pricing kernels and the volatility of exchange rates the estimated pricing kernel volatilities can account for the forward premium puzzle in an average sense across exchange rates

don t tell on me experimental evidence of asymmetric information in transnational households although most theoretical models of household decision making assume perfect information empirical studies suggest that information asymmetries can have large impacts on resource allocation i demonstrate the importance of these asymmetries in transnational households where physical distance between family members can make information barriers especially acute i implement an experiment among migrants in washington dc and their families in el salvador that examines how information asymmetries can have strategic and inadvertent impacts on remittance decisions migrants make an incentivized decision over how much of a cash windfall to remit and recipients decide how they will spend a remittance migrants strategically send home less when their choice is not revealed to recipients recipients make spending choices closer to migrants preferences when the migrants preferences are shared regardless of whether or not the spending choices are revealed to the migrants suggesting that recipients choices are inadvertently affected by imperfect information

what explains the price of remittances an examination across 119 country corridors remittances are a substantial source of external financing for developing countries that influence many aspects of their development though research has shown that remittances are both expensive and price sensitive little is known about what explains their price newly gathered data across 119 country pairs or corridors are used to explore the factors associated with the price of remittances corridors with larger numbers of migrants and more competition among providers are found to exhibit lower prices for remittances when average prices across all types of remittance service providers are considered corridors with lower barriers to access banking services and broader regulation of remittance service providers also have lower prices remittance prices are higher in richer corridors and in corridors with greater bank participation in the remittance market few significant differences emerge when results are compared across banks and separately across money transfer operators however estimations for western union a leading player in the remittances business suggest that its prices are less sensitive to competition

remittances labour supply and activity of household members left behind abstractthis paper analyses the role of remittances on labour supply and activity of household members left behind by explicitly distinguishing between different types of self employment contrary to the existing evidence we find no dependency effect of remittances our results show that remittances received by households in tajikistan decrease the probability of wage employment and increase that of small scale self employment activities of men staying behind without affecting the number of job specific hours worked any positive effect on economic development would be however limited as self employment is in rather small scale activities that do not generate a regular income stream

motives to remit evidence from tracked internal migrants in ethiopia summary remittances are used by households for insurance investment and income flows from internal migrants are relatively understudied in africa where migrants are less likely to remit to their origin households we use a unique matched migrant sample to study what drives the low remittance rates in ethiopia descriptive statistics suggest remitters are positively selected in terms of wealth characteristics compared with the average tracked migrant limited skill transferability and liquidity largely explain low remittance rates in ethiopia migrants are additionally motivated to remit as a form of self insurance against own shocks to income and to protect their family s productive assets

who you train matters identifying complementary effects of financial education on migrant households there has long been a concern among policymakers that too much of remittances are consumed and too little saved limiting the development impact of migration financial literacy programs have become an increasingly popular way to try and address this issue but to date there is no evidence that they are effective in inducing savings among remittance receiving households nor is it clear whether such programs are best targeted at the migrant the remittance receiver or both the authors conducted a randomized experiment in indonesia which allocated migrants and their families to a control group a migrant only training group a family member only training group and a training group in which both the migrant and a family member were trained three rounds of follow up surveys are then used to measure impacts on the financial knowledge behaviors and remittance and savings outcomes of the remaining household they find that training both the migrant and the family member together has large and significant impacts on knowledge behaviors and savings training the family member alone has some positive but smaller effects whilst training only the migrant leads to no impacts on the remaining family members the results show that financial education can have large effects when provided at a teachable moment but that this impact varies greatly with who receives training

endogeneity and sample selection in a model for remittances abstract we estimate a remittance model in which we address endogeneity and reverse causality relationships between immigrants remittances pre transfer income and consumption in order to take into account the fact that a large share of individuals do not remit instrumental variable variants of the double hurdle and heckit selection models are proposed and estimated by limited information ml semiparametric extensions are considered as robustness checks our results for a sample of recent immigrants to australia show that endogeneity is substantial and that estimates obtained by the methods previously employed in the literature may be misleading if given a behavioral interpretation

a model of exchange rate dynamics this model treats the exchange rate as an asset price that depends on expectations concerning exogenous real and monetary factors that will affect relative prices and absolute price levels in future periods changes in exchange rates reflect both expected changes in these exogenous factors and changes in expectations occasioned by new information the model explains the random component in exchange rate behavior the source of divergences from purchasing power parity the anticipatory response of exchange rates to future expected disturbances and the causes of exchange rate overshooting

monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations abstract using data for the philippines i develop and estimate a heterogeneous agent model to analyze the role of monetary policy in a small open economy subject to sizable remittance fluctuations i include rule of thumb households with no access to financial markets and test whether remittances are countercyclical and serve as an insurance mechanism against macroeconomic shocks when evaluating the welfare implications of alternative monetary rules i consider both an anticipated large secular increase in the trend growth of remittances and random cyclical fluctuations around this trend in a purely deterministic framework a nominal fixed exchange rate regime avoids a rapid real appreciation and performs better for recipient households facing an increasing trend for remittances a flexible floating regime is preferred when unanticipated shocks driving the business cycle are also part of the picture

do migrants improve governance at home can international migration promote better institutions at home by raising the demand for political accountability a behavioral measure of the population s desire for better governance was designe

a critique of jacobson and delucchi s proposals for a world renewable energy supply abstract jacobson and delucchi have recently put forward a detailed case in support of the claim that renewable energy sources can meet total world energy demand the following argument is that this proposal is unsatisfactory primarily because it does not deal effectively with the problems set by the variability of renewable energy sources and also because its analysis of investment costs is inadequate

alternative approaches to analyzing economic data this paper compares two approaches to the analysis of economic data the exclusively econometric approach recommended by hendry and ericsson and the more eclectic approach that we employed in our books monetary history and monetary trends it concludes that the article by hendry and ericsson is mislabeled their article is not in any relevant sense an evaluation of our empirical model of u k money demand rather it uses one equation from our book as a peg on which to hang an exposition of sophisticated econometric techniques insofar as their empirical findings do bear on ours they simply confirm some of our principal results and contradict none jel 036 212

realignment expectations and the us dollar 1890 1897 was there a peso problem we investigate dollar sterling exchange rate expectations during the period 1890 1908 we show that the dollar faced a peso problem in that for much of the period financial markets expected it to depreciate against sterling but this never in fact happened i e expectations were persistently biased drawing on the economic history of the period we identify 11 events which probably gave rise to realignment expectations once the dollar s adherence to the gold standard was settled as a political matter in the 1896 presidential election expectations of dollar realignment abruptly subsided and united states interest rates fell relative to british rates

manila to malaysia quezon to qatar international migration and its effects on origin country human capital i estimate the effect of international migration on the human capital of children in the migrants origin country using administrative data containing all migrant departures from the philippines i exploit variation across provinces in destination country demand for migrants my estimates are at the local labor market level allowing for spillovers to nonmigrant households an average year to year percent increase in migration causes a 3 5 percent increase in secondary school enrollment the effects are likely driven by increased income rather than an increased expected wage premium for education abstract from author

two illustrations of the quantity theory of money of two central implications of the quantity theory of money that a given change in the rate of change in the quantity of money induces i an equal change in the rate of price inflation and ii an equal change in nominal rates of interest the illustrations were obtained by comparing moving averages of the three variables in question using quarterly u s time series for the period 1953 77 readers may find the results of interest as additional confirmation of the quantity theory as an example of one way in which the quantity theoretic relationships can be uncovered via atheoretical methods from time series which are subject to a variety of other forces or as a measure of the extent to which the inflation and interest rate experience of the postwar period can be understood in terms of purely classical monetary forces the theoretical background of the study is reviewed very briefly as it is familiar material in the next section the data processing methods are described and rationalized in section ii the illustrations

i discovered the peso problem irving fisher and the uip puzzle abstract irving fisher was the first economist to posit what has come to be known as uncovered interest parity relation he was also the first to offer a peso problem type explanation for important episodes in which it was violated after reviewing his theoretical and empirical work on this subject we go on to reexamine both his data and several other bodies two consisting of multi country panel data and a third consisting of a two century long time series for the united states and the united kingdom we find evidence in these data of the important role played by episodic phenomena in disturbing the uip relation like fisher we find that the influence of such phenomena dissipates over time over the long term these errors prove to be less important and uip receives empirical support

moving forward looking back the impact of migration and remittances on assets consumption and credit constraints in the rural philippines abstract this paper investigates the impact of migration and remittances on asset holdings consumption expenditures and credit constraint status of households in origin communities using a unique longitudinal data set from bukidnon philippines taking into account the endogeneity of the number of migrants and remittances received a larger number of migrant children reduces the values of nonland assets and total expenditures per adult equivalent however remittances have a positive impact on housing consumer durables nonland assets total expenditures per adult equivalent and educational expenditures enabling asset accumulation and investment in human capital neither migration nor remittances affects current credit constraint status