the effect of supply uncertainty in price setting newsvendor models abstract we consider a price setting newsvendor model in which a firm needs to make joint inventory and pricing decisions before the selling season the supply process is uncertain such that the received quantity is the product of the order quantity and a random yield rate two cost structures are investigated the in house production case in which the firm pays for the input quantity and the procurement case in which the firm pays for the quantity received only our objective is to investigate the effect of yield randomness on optimal decisions and expected profit by using the theory of stochastic comparisons we find that under both cost structures a less variable yield rate leads to a lower optimal price and a higher expected profit moreover we show that in the in house production case a stochastically larger yield rate also results in a lower optimal price and a higher profit but this is not true in the procurement case examples show that the effect of supply uncertainty on optimal order quantity is not universal

vertical control of price and inventory this paper offers a simple approach to the theory of decentralizing inventory and pricing decisions along a supply chain we consider an upstream manufacturer selling to two outlets which compete as differentiated duopolists and face uncertain demand demand spillovers between the outlets arise in the event of stockouts the price mechanism in which each outlet pays a two part price and chooses price and inventory virtually never coordinates incentives efficiently contracts that can elicit first best decisions include resale price floors or buy back policies retailer held options to sell inventory back to the manufacturers

dynamic replenishment from two sources with different yields costs and leadtimes abstract we study a single item periodic review inventory system with two sources of supply in house production and outsourcing the two sources differ in yields costs and leadtimes demands in consecutive periods are independent random variables and stockout is fully backlogged our problem is to characterize the optimal dynamic policy that simultaneously determines the in house production quantity and the outsourcing quantity for each period to minimize the total discounted cost we show that the optimal policy for in house production can be characterized by a threshold and the production quantity is decreasing in the starting inventory the optimal outsourcing policy however is more complex and a threshold type policy is only optimal under a more restrictive assumption about the yields comparative statics about the effects of yield uncertainty outsourcing on the optimal policy and cost performance are discussed

pricing and the news vendor problem a review with extensions in the newsvendor problem a decision maker facing random demand for a perishable product decides how much of it to stock for a single selling period this simple problem with its intuitively appealing solution is a crucial building block of stochastic inventory theory which comprises a vast literature focusing on operational efficiency typically in this literature market parameters such as demand and selling price are exogenous however incorporating these factors into the mode l can provide an excellent vehicle for examining how operational problems interact with marketing issues to influence decision making at the firm level in this paper we examine an extension of the newsvendor problem in which stocking quantity and selling price are set simultaneously we provide a comprehensive review that synthesizes existing results for the single period problem and develop additional results to enrich the existing knowledge base we also review and develop insight into a dynamic inventory extension of this problem and motivate the applicability of such models

stochastic comparisons in production yield management manufacturing firms routinely commit resources to increase yield rates through product and process improvement initiatives champions of such yield improvement projects may assume that stochastically larger yield rates are beneficial in this note we show that this need not hold even when the contingent production lot sizes are chosen optimally we employ stochastic comparison techniques to show that a yield rate that is smaller in the convex order ensures higher expected profit and we provide a distribution free bound on the size of increase in expected profit we also identify properties of yield rate distributions that do make stochastically larger yield rates beneficial

joint inventory replenishment and pricing control for systems with uncertain yield and demand we study the joint inventory replenishment and pricing problem for production systems with random demand and yield more specifically we analyze the following single item periodic review model demands in consecutive periods are independent random variables and their distributions are price sensitive the production yield is uncertain so that the quantity received from a replenishment is a random variable whose distribution depends on the production quantity stockouts are fully backlogged our problem is to characterize the optimal dynamic policy that simultaneously determines the production quantity and the price for each period to maximize the total discounted profit we show that the optimal replenishment policy is of a threshold type i e it is optimal to produce if and only if the starting inventory in a period is below a threshold value and that both the optimal production quantity and the optimal price in each period are decreasing in the starting inventory we further study the operational e

a periodic review production planning model with uncertain capacity and uncertain demand optimality of extended myopic policies increasing product complexity manufacturing environment complexity and an increased emphasis on product quality are all factors leading to uncertainties in production processes these uncertainties are in the form of unplanned machine maintenance varying production yields and rework among others in planning for production an adequate model must incorporate these uncertainties into the representation of the production process this paper treats the aggregate planning problem for a single product with random demand and random capacity in the single period problem random capacity does not affect the optimal policy but results in a unimodal nonconvex cost function in the multiple period and infinite horizon settings order up to policies that are dependent on the distribution of capacity are shown to be optimal in spite of a nonconvex cost in the infinite horizon setting an intuitive description of the situation leads to the notion of a class of extended myopic policies requiring the consideration o

the structure of periodic review policies in the presence of random yield this work provides a comprehensive analysis of a general periodic review production inventory model with random variable yield existence of an order point whose value does not depend on yield being random is proved in the single period case without specifying the yield model and using a very general cost structure when yield is a random multiple of lot size the nonorder up to optimal policy is characterized for a finite horizon model the finite horizon value functions are shown to converge to the solution of an infinite horizon functional equation and the infinite horizon order point is shown to be no smaller than when yield is certain

the labor market effects of rising health insurance premiums we estimate the effect of rising health insurance premiums on wages employment and the distribution of part time and full time work using variation in medical malpractice payments driven by the recent medical malpractice crisis we estimate that a 10 increase in health insurance premiums reduces the aggregate probability of being employed by 1 2 percentage points reduces hours worked by 2 4 and increases the likelihood that a worker is employed only part time by 1 9 percentage points for workers covered by employer provided health insurance this increase in premiums results in an offsetting decrease in wages of 2 3

a single period stocking and pricing problem involving stochastic emergency supply abstract we develop a model for determining jointly optimal price and production policy of products with short life cycles subject to partially uncertain supply capacity within the price setting newsvendor framework we consider that demand in excess of the stocking quantity can be met by an emergency order due to the randomness of emergency supply capacity it may not always be possible to satisfy the demand completely assuming that all customers are charged the same price we explore the optimal sourcing and pricing decisions in the commonly used additive and multiplicative demand scenarios the first order conditions imply that the optimal price in the problem with random emergency supply is less than the optimal price associated with the deterministic demand problem when demand uncertainty is additive and it is greater than the optimal price associated with the deterministic demand problem when demand uncertainty is multiplicative we also find that the same type of comparative static applies in the multiplicative uncertainty case when there exists a dual source emergency system consisting of a perfectly reliable supplier and a second supplier with a stochastic capacity

the incidence of medicare abstract the medicare program transfers nearly 300 billion annually from taxpayers to beneficiaries this paper considers the incidence of such transfers in the context of a life cycle model with uncertainty about future health care expenditures we find the distributional consequences of the medicare program are roughly neutral in dollar terms households living in high income neighborhoods pay more in taxes but they also receive more in benefits these dollar flows however ignore the insurance value of the medicare system given the incomplete insurance coverage of lower income elderly households prior to the medicare program the money metric benefits to lower income groups exceed the dollar flows suggesting that medicare redistributes more than a simple accounting exercise would suggest

unimodality of price setting newsvendor s objective function with multiplicative demand and its applications abstract we present a general solution framework for the price setting newsvendor problem with a multiplicative stochastic demand under mild assumptions such as increasing price elasticity on the mean demand function and increasing generalized failure rate on the distribution of the random factor we first prove that both the profit function with respect to price and its derived function with respect to order quantity are quasi concave three applications are then studied under our solution framework 1 we consider a wholesale price only contract by which a manufacturer sets a wholesale price and a newsvendor determines an order quantity and the retail price and show that the manufacturer s profit function is unimodal with respect to retailing price or stocking factor under certain conditions 2 we consider a newsvendor problem in which the demand depends on both the retail price and the level of sales effort and the cost exerting the sales effort is proportional to the order quantity we prove that there exists a unique pair of price and sales effort levels that maximize the total profit this result is established under a set of mild assumptions on the demand and cost functions 3 we identify a property in the single period profit function that satisfies condition 1 of huh and janakiraman 2008 which in turn guarantees the optimality of s s policy for an infinite stationary dynamic inventory price control system with lost sales and fixed order costs finally the unimodality of the newsvendor problem with a general stochastic and price sensitive demand is studied

optimal inventory policy with supply uncertainty and demand cancellation we consider a periodic review model where the firm manages its inventory under supply uncertainty and demand cancellation we show that because of supply uncertainty the optimal inventory policy has the structure of re order point type that is we order if the initial inventory falls below this re order point otherwise we do not order this is in contrast to the work of yuan and cheung 2003 who prove the optimality of an order up to policy in the absence of supply uncertainty we also investigate the impact of supply uncertainty and demand cancellation on the performance of the supply chain using our model we are able to quantify the importance of reducing the variance of either the distribution of yield or the distribution of demand cancellation the single multiple periods and the infinite horizon models are studied

the risk averse newsvendor problem with random capacity abstract we study the effect of capacity uncertainty on the inventory decisions of a risk averse newsvendor we consider two well known risk criteria namely value at risk var included as a constraint and conditional value at risk cvar for the risk neutral newsvendor we find that the optimal order quantity is not affected by the capacity uncertainty however this result does not hold for the risk averse newsvendor problem specifically we find that capacity uncertainty decreases the order quantity under the cvar criterion under the var constraint capacity uncertainty leads to an order decrease for low confidence levels but to an order increase for high confidence levels this implies that the risk criterion should be carefully selected as it has an important effect on inventory decisions this is shown for the newsvendor problem but is also likely to hold for other inventory control problems that future research can address

diversification under supply uncertainty supply chain management is becoming an increasingly important issue especially when in most industries the cost of materials purchased comprises 40 60 of the total sales revenue despite the benefits cited for single sourcing in the popular literature there is enough evidence of industries having two three sources for most parts in this paper we address the operational issue of quantity allocation between two uncertain suppliers and its effects on the inventory policies of the buyer based on the type of delivery contract a buyer has with the suppliers we suggest three models for the supply process model i is a one delivery contract with all of the order quantity delivered either in the current period with probability or in the next period with probability 1 model ii is also a one delivery contract with a random fraction of the order quantity delivered in the current period the portion of the order quantity not delivered is cancelled model iii is similar to model ii with the remaining quantity delivered in the next period we derive the optimal ordering policies that minimize the total ordering holding and penalty costs with backlogging we show that the optimal ordering policy in period n for each of these models is as follows for x a n order nothing for vi n x a n use only one supplier and for x vi n order from both suppliers for the limiting case in the single period version of model i we derive conditions under which one would continue ordering from one or the other or both suppliers for model ii we give sufficient conditions for not using the second more expensive supplier when the demand and yield distributions have some special form for the single period version of models ii and iii with equal marginal ordering costs we show that the optimal order quantities follow a ratio rule when demand is exponential and yields are either normal or gamma distributed

hospital ownership and public medical spending the hospital market is served by firms that are private for profit private not for profit and government owned and operated i use a plausibly exogenous change in hospital financing that was intended to improve medical care for the poor to test three theories of organizational behavior i find that the critical difference between the three types of hospitals is caused by the soft budget constraint of government owned institutions the decision makers in private not for profit hospitals are just as responsive to financial incentives and are no more altruistic than their counterparts in profit maximizing facilities my final set of results suggests that the significant increase in public medical spending examined in this paper has not improved health outcomes for the indigent i introduction the hospital market is served by firms that are private for profit private not for profit and publicly owned and operated in this paper i examine how a hospital s type of ownership influences its response to profitable opportunities that are created by changes in government policy the policy change that i exploit was designed to improve the quality of medical care for lowincome individuals by significantly increasing hospitals financial incentives to treat them this program also substantially increased the revenues of those hospitals that had been serving a disproportionate share of the indigent i use this plausibly exogenous change in government policy to test three different theories of organizational behavior and then to assess the impact of hospital behavioral responses on health outcomes the response of organizations to changes in government policy will have an important impact on the consequences of these policies this is likely to be especially true in the medical sector in which the federal state and local governments contract directly

health insurance and the demand for medical care evidence from a randomized experiment we estimate how cost sharing the portion of the bill the patient pays affects the demand for medical services the data come from a randomized experiment a catastrophic insurance plan reduces expenditures 31 percent relative to zero out of pocket price the price elasticity is approximately 0 2 we reject the hypothesis that less favorable coverage of outpatient services increases total expenditure for example by deterring preventive care or inducing hospitalization

double marginalization and coordination in the supply chain with uncertain supply abstract this paper explores a generalized supply chain model subject to supply uncertainty after the supplier chooses the production input level decentralized systems under wholesale price contracts are investigated with double marginalization effects shown to lead to supply insufficiencies in the cases of both deterministic and random demands we then design coordination contracts for each case and find that an accept all type of contract is required to coordinate the supply chain with random demand which is a much more complicated situation than that with deterministic demand examples are provided to illustrate the application of our findings to specific industrial domains moreover our coordination mechanisms are shown to be applicable to the multi supplier situation which fills the research gap on assembly system coordination with random yield and random demand under a voluntary compliance regime

new empirical generalizations on the determinants of price elasticity abstract the importance of pricing decisions for firms has fueled an extensive stream of research on price elasticities in an influential meta analytical study tellis 1988 summarized price elasticity research findings until 1986 however empirical generalizations on price elasticity require modifications because of 1 changes in market characteristics i e characteristics of brands product categories and economic conditions and 2 changes in the research methodology used to assess price elasticities therefore the authors present a meta analysis of price elasticity with new empirical generalizations on its determinants across a set of 1851 price elasticities based on 81 studies the average price elasticity is 2 62 a salient finding is that over the past four decades sales elasticities have significantly increased in magnitude whereas share and choice elasticities have remained fairly constant the authors find that accommodating price endogeneity has a strong magnitude increasing impa

the economic effects of social security toward a reconciliation of theory and measurement abstract in this paper we argue that actuarial valuation of social security benefit streams is theoretically inconsistent with the assumption of pure life cycle motives instead we show that the simple discounted value of future benefits ignoring the possibility of death is often a good approximation to the relevant concept of value this observation motivates a re examination of existing empirical evidence concerning the economic effects of social security we focus our attention on studies of distributional equity and personal saving behavior in both cases we argue that the use of simple rather than actuarial discounting of survival contingent income streams produces results that differ dramatically from previous findings specifically estimates based on actuarial valuation may overstate the importance of redistribution between and within generations and may understate the depressive effect of social security on personal wealth accumulation by a factor of three or more

exclusion via non exclusive contracts we establish that non linear vertical contracts can allow an incumbent to exclude an upstream rival in a setting that does not rely on the exclusivity of the incumbent s contracts with downstream firms or any limits on distribution channels available to the incumbent or rival the optimal contract we describe is a three part quantity discounting contract that involves the payment of an allowance to a downstream distributor and a marginal wholesale price below the incumbent s marginal cost for sufficiently large quantities the optimal contract is robust to allowing parties to renegotiate contracts in case of entry l exclusion par le biais des contrats non exclusifs nous etablissons que des contrats verticaux non lineaires peuvent permettre a un titulaire d exclure un rival en amont dans un cadre qui ne de pend pas de l exclusivite des contrats du titulaire avec les entreprises en aval ou des limites sur les canaux de distribution disponibles pour le titulaire ou un rival le contrat optimal que nous decrivons est un contrat de rabais en trois parties base sur la quantite pre voyant le versement d une indemnite a un distributeur en aval et un prix de gros marginal inferieur au cout marginal de l operateur historique pour des quantites suffisamment importantes le contrat optimal est robuste si on permet aux parties de renegocier les contrats en cas d entree

the incidence of mandated maternity benefits i consider the labor market effects of mandates which raise the costs of employing a demographically identifiable group the efficiency of these policies will be largely dependent on the extent to which their costs are shifted to group specific wages i study several state and federal mandates which stipulated that childbirth be covered comprehensively in health insurance plans raising the relative cost of insuring women of childbearing age i find substantial shifting of the costs of these mandates to the wages of the targeted group correspondingly i find little effect on total labor input for that group jel 118 j32 h51 in an era of tight fiscal budget constraints mandating employer provision of workplace benefits to employees is an attractive means for a government to finance its policy agenda consequently in recent years there has been a growth of interest in mandated benefits as a tool of social policy for example the centerpiece of president bill clinton s health care proposal is mandated employer provision of health insurance and more than 20 states have man

combined pricing and inventory control under uncertainty this paper addresses the simultaneous determination of pricing and inventory replenishment strategies in the face of demand uncertainty more specifically we analyze the following single item periodic review model demands in consecutive periods are independent but their distributions depend on the item s price in accordance with general stochastic demand functions the price charged in any given period can be specified dynamically as a function of the state of the system a replenishment order may be placed at the beginning of some or all of the periods stockouts are fully backlogged we address both finite and infinite horizon models with the objective of maximizing total expected discounted profit or its time average value assuming that prices can either be adjusted arbitrarily upward or downward or that they can only be decreased we characterize the structure of an optimal combined pricing and inventory strategy for all of the above types of models we also develop an efficient value iteration method to compute these optimal strategies finally we report on an extensive numerical study that characterizes various qualitative properties of the optimal strategies and corresponding optimal profit values

the welfare implications of increasing disability insurance benefit generosity abstract in order to evaluate whether workers are over or under insured through the disability insurance di program we develop a framework that allows us to simulate the benefits as well as the costs associated with marginal changes in payment generosity from a representative cross sectional sample of the population under the assumption that individuals are reasonably risk averse we find that the typical worker would value increased benefits somewhat above the average costs of providing them however whether the benefit increases tend to lower or raise utility when we average across all individuals in our sample is sensitive to assumptions that affect the relative marginal utility of income to disabled individuals

joint replenishment and pricing decisions in inventory systems with stochastically dependent supply capacity abstract in this paper we study a joint optimization problem of replenishment and pricing for a periodic review inventory system with random supply capacity when making replenishment and pricing decisions at the beginning of each period the firm only knows the supplier s available capacity in the current period but does not know what will be the available capacity in future periods the salient feature of our model is that the random supply capacities for different periods are dependent several stochastic dependency structures are considered for the supply capacity sequence including the one lag and the multi lag dependency we show that the optimal inventory control policy is of the modified base stock type and the base stock level is decreasing in the available capacity of the current period and that the optimal pricing policy is a list price coined with markdown and markup this paper generalizes the work of federgruen and zipkin federgruen a zipkin p 1986a an inventory model with limited production capacity and uncertain demands i the average cost criterion mathematics of operations research 11 193 207 federgruen a zipkin p 1986b an inventory model with limited production capacity and uncertain demands ii the discounted cost criterion mathematics of operations research 11 208 215 in which the supply capacity and selling price are assumed to be fixed constants and the work of federgruen and heching federgruen a heching a 1999 combining pricing and inventory control under uncertainty operations research 47 454 475 on joint optimization of replenishment and pricing with unlimited supply capacity

technical note optimal product pricing and component production quantities for an assembly system under supply uncertainty we consider an assemble to order system where one of the components faces uncertainty in the supply process in which the actual available quantity is equal to some random fraction of the production quantity demand is assumed to be price dependent we analyze how the supply uncertainty of one component affects the product pricing and production quantities of all the components under the assembly structure we show that it is profitable for the firm to assemble the product only if the product price exceeds a certain threshold this price threshold increases as the unit cost of each component or the degree of variability of the supply reliability distribution increases but it is independent of the underlying demand function and demand distribution also the optimal product price decreases as supply uncertainty decreases we further show that under deterministic demand the components can be managed independently such that the production quantity or unit cost of the component with supply uncertainty does not affect the optimal production quantity of the other components as long as it is profitable to assemble the product however when demand is stochastic the optimal production quantity of each component depends on the supply reliability distribution as well as the unit costs of the other components for a fixed product price the optimal production quantities of the components are smaller when the unit product price is low and they are higher when the unit product price is high as compared to the case with no supply uncertainty

supply and demand uncertainty reduction efforts and cost comparison abstract in industries like health care consumer goods and agriculture shortages are widely observed and the consequences can be costly one of the main drivers of such shortages is the uncertain nature of supply and demand to reduce uncertainties sufficient information about supply and demand can be obtained by gathering relevant data e g auditing suppliers and conducting market research in this paper we conduct an analysis to examine the impacts of supply uncertainty demand uncertainty and uncertainty reduction efforts on production quantity and total cost we show that in the absence of uncertainty reduction efforts when the financial consequences of shortages are large or when the unit benefit is large supply uncertainty is more costly than demand uncertainty in addition exerting supply uncertainty reduction effort always causes the firm to produce fewer units than exerting demand uncertainty reduction effort although supply uncertainty reduction effort delivers a larger degree of improvement to total cost and hence is more efficient reduced supply uncertainty still leads to a higher system cost than does reduced demand uncertainty

insuring consumption against illness one of the most sizable and least predictable shocks to economic opportunities in developing countries is major illness we investigate the extent to which families are able to insure consumption against major illness using a unique panel data set from indonesia that combines excellent measures of health status with consumption information we find that there are significant economic costs associated with major illness and that there is very imperfect insurance of consumption over illness episodes these estimates suggest that public disability insurance or subsidies for medical care may improve welfare by providing consumption insurance

newsvendor model with random supply and financial hedging utility based approach abstract this paper takes a utility based approach to the single period and single item newsvendor model unlike most models in the literature the newsvendor is not necessarily risk neutral and chooses the order quantity that maximizes the expected utility of the cash flow at the end of the period we suppose that there is uncertainty in demand as well as supply furthermore random demand and supply may be correlated with the financial markets the newsvendor exploits this correlation and manages his risks by investing in a portfolio of financial instruments the decision problem therefore includes not only the determination of the optimal ordering policy but also the selection of the optimal portfolio at the same time we first use a minimum variance approach to select the portfolio the analysis results in some interesting and explicit characterizations on the structure of the optimal policy we also present numerical examples to illustrate the effects of the parameters on the optimal order quantity and the importance of financial hedging on risk reduction

a risk averse newsvendor model under marketing dependency and price dependency abstract in this paper we analyze a single period inventory model where a risk averse newsvendor makes a joint decision on ordering pricing and marketing under the cvar risk measure criterion the newsvendor can exert marketing effort to enhance market demand we assume that the newsvendor s marketing effort affects the scale of the demand distribution and hence to model the marketing dependent demand as a multiplicative form we characterize sufficient conditions that guarantee existence and uniqueness of the optimal solutions under some mild assumptions on demand distribution expected demand function and marketing effort cost which are widely used in the related literature we show that the optimal order quantity increases in the newsvendor s marketing effort but the optimal price remains unchanged whether the demand is marketing dependent or not additionally we explore impact of exogenous parameters such as unit order cost salvage value and the newsvendor s risk aversion coefficient on the optimal decision variables and find that the optimal marketing effort always keeps the same changing direction with the optimal marketing independent order quantity as the exogenous parameters change this suggests that impact of the parameters on the optimal order quantity gets strengthened in the case of marketing dependent demand

integrating dynamic pricing and replenishment decisions under supply capacity uncertainty this paper examines an integrated decision making process regarding pricing for uncertain demand and sourcing from uncertain supply which are often studied separately in the literature our analysis of the integrated system suggests that the base stock list price policy fails to achieve optimality even under deterministic demand instead the optimal policy is characterized by two critical values a reorder point and a target safety stock under this policy a positive order is issued if and only if the inventory level is below the reorder point when this happens the optimal order and price are coordinated to achieve a constant target safety stock which aims at hedging the demand uncertainty we further investigate the profit improvement obtained from deploying dynamic pricing as opposed to static pricing our results indicate that either supply limit or supply uncertainty may induce a significant benefit from dynamic pricing and the compound effect of supply limit and uncertainty can be much more pronounced than the individual effects whether or not the supply capacity is limited has a major implication on the value of dynamic pricing under unlimited supply dynamic pricing is more valuable when procurement cost is high or when demand is more sensitive to price with limited supply however the capacity restriction tends to be relaxed reducing the value of dynamic pricing

the impact of nearly universal insurance coverage on health care utilization evidence from medicare the onset of medicare eligibility at age 65 leads to sharp changes in the health insurance coverage of the u s population these changes lead to increases in the use of medical services with a pattern of gains across socioeconomic groups that varies by type of service while routine doctor visits increase more for groups that previously lacked insurance hospital admissions for relatively expensive procedures like bypass surgery and joint replacement increase more for previously insured groups that are more likely to have supplementary coverage after 65 reflecting the relative generosity of their combined insurance package under medicare