de industrialisation and the balance of payments in advanced economies this paper defines de industrialisation as a secular decline in the share of manufacturing in national employment de industrialisation in this sense has been a widespread feature of economic growth in advanced economies in recent decades the paper considers briefly what explains this development and quantifies some of the factors responsible it then examines the experience of britain and america which are two countries that have combined rapid de industrialisation with a strong overall economic performance the paper considers both the domestic situation of manufacturing industry in these countries and its foreign trade performance it concludes by examining in detail the british balance of payments and documenting how improvements in the non manufacturing sphere have helped offset a worsening performance in manufacturing trade copyright 2004 oxford university press

a new theoretical analysis of deindustrialisation the analysis of deindustrialisation has been led by heterodox economists especially those in the structuralist and kaldorian traditions based on a conception of sectoral specificity and the role of manufacturing in growth sectors are not the units of marxian economic analysis but thinking through the meaning of sectors in marxian terms allows for an analysis of the meaning and implications of a change in sectoral structure deindustrialisation is the sectoral shift that has been most prominent in recent decades and which is likely to have significant implications for the future of capitalism this article develops an original marxian theorisation of deindustrialisation this conceptualisation includes a distinction between two forms of deindustrialisation as well as taking into account changes in sectoral structure the proposed typology considers whether such changes are associated with a shift between those activities that produce surplus value and those that do not or only a shift in the composition of surplus value producing activities the distinction between different forms of deindustrialisation allows for an arguably richer analysis of this phenomenon than in more narrowly sector based approaches

federal reserve vs private forecasts of real net exports abstract this paper provides empirical support for the asymmetric information hypothesis that the multiperiod federal reserve forecasts of real net exports embody useful predictive information over and above that contained in the private sector forecasts

campaign spending and senate elections 1978 84 this paper uses a sample of recent senate election results and estimates vote equations that show challenger spending hurts and incumbent spending helps incumbent re election while both types of spending have diminishing returns the effects are asymmetrical challenger spending is more productive at lower levels of spending but incumbents can spend greater amounts more profitably than can challengers these results can explain why senate incumbents spend money why they typically outspend their challenger and why incumbents who can outspend their challenger would tend to be against spending limits or public financing

encompassing the forecasts of u s trade balance models yock y chong and david f hendry 1986 propose the concept of forecast encompassing the lack of additional information in another model s forecasts the corresponding test statistic is based on the regression of one model s forecast errors on the other model s forecasts this paper generalizes chong and hendry s statistic to include sets of dynamic nonlinear models with uncertain estimated coefficients generating multistep forecasts with possibly systematic biases using stochastic simulation the generalized statistic is applied to forecasts over 1985q1 1987q4 from six models of the u s merchandise trade balance revealing misspecification in all models copyright 1993 by mit press

selling favors in the lab experiments on campaign finance reform campaign advertising can provide benefits to constituencies when used to fund the distribution of useful information but voters can be harmed if candidates finance such advertising by trading policy favors to special interests in exchange for contributions we report data from novel laboratory campaign finance experiments that shed light on this tradeoff and that provide rigorous empirical evidence on formal campaign finance theory our key finding is that voters respond to advertising differently between special interest and publicly financed campaigns and that the nature of this difference is qualitatively consistent with formal models predictions

how words and money cultivate a personal vote the effect of legislator credit claiming on constituent credit allocation the district affect how constituents allocate credit legislators use credit claiming messages to influence the expenditures they receive credit for and to affect how closely they are associated with spending in the district constituents are responsive to credit claiming messages they build more support than other nonpartisan messages but contrary to expectations from other studies constituents are more responsive to the total number of messages sent rather than the amount claimed our results have broad implications for political representation the personal vote and the study of u s congressional elections p articularistic spending a large literature argues cultivates a personal vote for incumbents cain ferejohn and fiorina 1987 ferejohn 1974 lazarusandreiley2010 levittandsnyder1997 mayhew 1974 to build this support legislators are assumed to direct projects and programs to their districts constituents in turn are thought to reward their legislator for the level of federal spending in the district levitt and snyder 1997 str omberg 2004 or the

changing income inequalities within and between nations new evidence fresh data sources on cross national income are examined to document recent changes in the composition of world income inequality within and between nations new evidence shows that during the 1980s and 1990s the composition of world income inequality experienced a fundamental change characterized by the diminishing significance of between nation income differences and the growing prominence of within nation inequalities two competing trends account for this change 1 steady growth in the average level of income inequality within nations and 2 a decline in income inequality between nations these recent trends signify a reversal in one of the major legacies of the industrial revolution the internationalization of world income inequality across national borders the findings raise important questions for future studies of cross national inequality and development

estimating the effect of campaign spending on senate election outcomes using instrumental variables o examine the traditional view that challenger spending is more effective than incumbent spending 7 i reestimate the effects of spending using instrumental variables that affect a candidate s ability to raise campaign funds such as candidate wealth levels hhen the endogeneity of candidate spending levels is properly taken into account the marginal effects of incumbent and challenger spending are roughly equal in contrast to previous research showing that because of higher marginal returns to challenger spending the incumbent s spending advantage cannot explain high incumbent reelection rates this article shows that in an average senate election the incumbent s spending advantage yields a 6 increase in the incumbent s vote share that incumbent spending wins elections has direct implications regarding the consequences of campaign finance reform my findings imply that equalizing spending levels may significantly increase incumbent defeat rates and caps on candidate spending may improve the chances of challengers in american congressional elections incumbents routinely win reelection even in the 1994 republican landslide change in the partisan makeup of congress occurred mainly through open seats switching from the democrats to the republicans a common explanation for high congressional reelection rates is the large campaign spending advantage enjoyed by incumbents it is widely believed that challenger spending is very important but there is surprisingly little evidence in the academic literature that incumbent campaign spending has an important effect on congressional election outcomes in light of the substantial effort incumbents devote to fundraising as well as some nagging methodological questions about existing academic studies the effect of incumbent spending on election outcomes remains an unresolved issue accurately measuring how incumbent spending leads to votes is of obvious importance politicians want to win elections and so if money matters then this will influence their behavior if campaign spending effects are trivial then concerns about politicians being

the drivers of structural change the main goal of this paper is to provide an integrated survey of the literature devoted to identifying the drivers of structural change broadly defined as the process of reallocation of economic activity across the three broad sectors agriculture manufacturing and services using the ggdc 10 sector database this paper first presents the empirical facts associated with structural change in different regions of the world that is europe and the usa asia latin america and africa then reviews four determinants of structural change i changes in income ii changes in relative sectoral prices iii changes in input output linkages and iv changes in comparative advantage s via globalization and trade

an individual level multiequation model of expenditure effects in contested house elections e shall address questions concerning the impact of candidate spending in congressional elections in a new way we develop a multiequation model of congressional vote choice a v that takes the endogeneity of expenditures into account we then estimate both this model and the more traditional single equation model using individual level survey data the substantial differences we find between the two models indicates that the simultaneity bias present in the single equation model is not trivial the challenger and incumbent expenditure terms are each significant whereas only challenger expenditures are in the single equation setup and of much greater magnitude in the multiequation case in addition we evaluate hypotheses grounded in persuasive communications theory concerning the type of individuals most affected by the messages emanating from the campaigns we find that individuals with higher education those with greater interest in campaigns and those with strongly held convictions are unaffected by candidate spending whereas individuals lacking each of these attributes are greatly influenced by campaign expenditures

economics and policy preferences causal evidence of the impact of economic conditions on support for redistribution and other ballot proposals abstract using california ballot proposition returns and exogenous shifts to labor demand we provide the first large scale causal evidence of the impact of economic conditions on policy preferences consistent with economic theory we find that positive economic shocks decrease support for redistributive policies more notably we find evidence of a need for cognitive consistency in voting behavior as economic shocks have a smaller significant impact on voting on noneconomic ballot issues while we also demonstrate that positive shocks decrease turnout we present evidence that our results reflect changes in the electorate s preferences and not simply to its composition

some talk money in politics a partial review of the literature the financing of political campaigns is an area of active scholarly study i review some of the recent literature and discuss important methodological issues that arise in empir ical research on campaign expenditures and campaign contributions the effects of campaign expenditures and advertising on candidate and ballot measure elections are summarized as are the impacts of contributions on contributors welfare many states have changed their campaign finance laws in the past few years and i describe work that exploits variations in these laws a discussion of the strategies used by interest groups to allocate their campaign contributions provides insights into contributors motives

voter response to congressional campaigns new techniques for analyzing aggregate electoral behavior scholarship on congressional elections typically analyzes either the sum or the division of the major party vote at the district level our main innovation is to model the votes received by each candidate as a separate dependent variable utilizing statistical methods developed to analyze multiparty elections because we are dealing with a substantive area in which endogeneity problems are rampant we synthesize an instrumental variables approach with a compositional data model this approach allows one to study the mobilizing and persuasive effects of congressional campaigns at the aggregate level

reformulating taxes for an energy transition abstract an energy transition toward clean energy sources would reduce environmental impacts one proposal to trigger this energy transition uses economic instruments particularly environmental taxes this research studies the potential impact of taxes on electricity on the environment and the economy using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for spain with energy and environmental extensions we assess their current impact on gdp growth energy use and a set of different pollutant emissions then we propose a reform that would foster an energy transition toward clean energies and assess their economic and environmental impact we find that only taxing the production of electricity by coal oil and natural gas can be better for the environment and economy than taxing all forms of electricity production in a revenue neutral context moreover the production of electricity by biomass though considered renewable is an important source of pollutant emissions and in these terms should have less importance in an energy transition

selection and influence interest groups and congressional voting on trade policy studies of the effects of interest groups on congressional roll call voting typically view party and ideology as competing factors and rely on a factoral model of interests or a sectoral model including only interest groups with a direct stake in the vote we depart from that strategy in several ways we define interest groups at the level of standard industrial classification two digit codes and observe the universe of interests for 1979 90 we use measures of geographically and nongeographically based economic interests to estimate the representative s party and ideology we also consider the factor endowments of individuals within a district to examine their impact on floor votes we then investigate the influence of these interests on members party affiliation and ideology as well as a pool of five floor votes on foreign trade using instrumental variables for party and ideology economic interests account for a substantial portion of the variance in all cases and models that also include other explanatory variables are highly accurate in estimating floor votes

evaluating multiperiod survey forecasts of real net exports abstract examination of the asa nber survey data on real net exports indicates that the multiperiod professional forecasts are all unbiased the short term as well as the four quarter ahead forecasts are also rational suggesting their usefulness in policy making

a natural experiment in proposal power and electoral success does lawmaker behavior influence electoral outcomes observational studies cannot elucidate the effect of legislative proposals on electoral outcomes since effects are confounded by unobserved differences in legislative and political skill we take advantage of a unique natural experiment in the canadian house of commons that allows us to estimate how proposing legislation affects election outcomes the right of noncabinet members to propose legislation is assigned by lottery comparing outcomes between those who were granted the right to propose and those who were not we show that incumbents of the governing party enjoy a 2 7 percentage point bonus in vote total in the election following their winning the right to introduce a single piece of legislation which translates to a 7 increase in the probability of winning the causal effect results from higher likeability among constituents these results demonstrate experimentally that what politicians do as lawmakers has a causal effect on electoral outcomes

equilibria in campaign spending games theory and data we present a formal game theoretic model to explain the simultaneity problem that makes it difficult to obtain unbiased estimates of the effects of both incumbent and challenger spending in u s house elections the model predicts a particular form of correlation between the expected closeness of the race and the level of spending by both candidates which implies that the simultaneity problem should not be present in close races and should be progressively more severe in the range of safe races that are empirically observed this is confirmed by comparing simple ols regression of races that are expected to be close with races that are not using house incumbent races spanning two decades

money and votes reconsidered congressional elections 1972 1982 the evolution of congressional campaign finance over the past decade is characterized by steady growth in campaign spending and other notable changes in campaign finance practices the main purpose of the research reported here was to determine whether these changes have altered the effects of campaign spending on election outcomes this required reexamination of auxiliary questions concerning how sending effects operate and can be measured it also required facing the limits of what analysis of aggregate campaign spending data can tell us about money in elections replication of ols and 2sls analyses of campaign spending effects produced solidly consistent results over the six congressional elections held between 1972 and 1982 taken at face value the evidence is overwhelming that the challenger s level of spending has a strong impact on the vote whereas that of the incumbent has virtually no impact at all but the evidence remains open to doubt on two grounds one is the probable inadequacy of the 2sls model or perhaps any possible model leaving the issue of simultaneity bias unsettled if bias remains the estimates exaggerate the electoral effects of the challenger s campaign expenditures the issue cannot be resolved with more of the same data but rather requires data of a different sort surveys taken over the course of a sample of campaigns would do the trick meanwhile i think it would be foolish to make policy on the assumption that bias is in fact substantial the greatest likelihood remains that restrictions on campaign money will have the general effect of hurting challengers jacobson 1979 the other doubtful albeit equally stable finding is that incumbents do not gain votes by spending in campaigns no incumbent seems to believe it and there is at least circumstantial evidence from for example the 1982 elections that their skepticism is quite justified if so the problem lies in the limits of what aggregate data of the kind analyzed here can tell us few incumbents do not spend heavily when they are strongly challenged if both candidates spend beyond the point needed to become thoroughly familiar to voters then the substance of the campaigns the contents of campaign messages become the dominant factors incumbents may need to spend money in order to change the message as new circumstances arise to frame new issues that would help them most or damage them least to win the battle of establishing the real issues like nonincumbents sitting members may sometimes need to spend beyond a certain threshold to remain competitive but nearly all of them do so when the necessity arises so aggregate spending data are largely uninformative how the money is spent rather than how much is what matters the two most notable developments in congressional campaign finance have opposing implications national party organizations particularly the republican have assumed an increasingly important role in financing campaigns greater central control leads to a more efficient distribution of the party s collective campaign resources which among other things promises to raise the overall level of electoral competition it also leads to more coordinated campaigning with greater emphasis on national themes and programs thus it should foster more cooperation and loyalty among fellow partisans in congress but pacs have also grown in numbers and in financial importance because most concentrate on gaining access to incumbents they do little to make elections more competitive because they usually pursue narrowly defined interests their influence fragments the congress and weakens party coalitions in this and other ways parties and pacs are natural rivals the most consequential decisions taken in the next round in campaign finance policy will be those which affect the relative importance of parties and pacs see u s congress 1984 for comments on this and other current campaign finance issues

a new approach to measure tactical voting evidence from the british elections although tactical voting attracts a great deal of attention it is very hard to measure as it requires knowledge of both individuals voting choices as well as their unobserved preferences in this article we present a simple empirical strategy to nonparametrically identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results this approach allows us to study the magnitude and direction of strategic voting as well as to verify which information voters and parties take into account to determine marginal constituencies we show that tactical voting played a significant role in the 2010 election mainly for liberal democratic voters supporting labour moreover our results suggest that voters seem to form their expectations based on a national swing in vote shares rather than newspaper guides published in the main media outlets or previous election outcomes we also present some evidence that suggests that campaign spending is not driving tactical voting

campaign finance reform a public choice perspective the federal election campaign act as passed in 1971 and amended in 1974represented landmark federal legislation it imposed new restrictions oncampaign contributions and contained path breaking provisions for the useof public funds to partially finance the campaigns of qualifyingpresidential candidates the nominal intent of the legislation was torestrain the skyrocketing campaign costs and the feared abuses thatgrowing dependencies on such money engendered three decades later withthe campaign spending arms race still raging congress sought toimpose further constraints on campaign spending with enactment of thebipartisan campaign reform act of 2002 bcra competing theories ofgovernment regulation are reviewed to better understand the intent andlikely consequences of the 2002 legislation in particular and campaignfinance regulation in general a simple model of the campaign spendingprocess highlights the likely causes of the rapid growth in campaignspending data and evidence are presented to test hypotheses concerningthe timing of and underlying motivations for bcra

campaign spending limits and political advertising traditionally research on political campaigns has focused on the positioning of parties and not on how parties communicate with the electorate we construct a model where two parties fund both the creative and media elements of political advertising and examine how campaign budgets affect advertising strategies in the context of a political campaign our key finding is that tight campaign limits stimulate aggressive advertising on the part of competing parties while generous budgets often lead to parties acting defensively the analysis also provides an explanation for the increasingly partisan campaigns that the republicans and democrats have taken in recent elections when there is significant polarization amongst noncommitted voters and campaign spending limits are higher we find that parties retrench toward traditional constituencies

electoral contributions and the cost of unpopularity when considering electoral campaigns candidates receiving contributions from relatively unpopular industries should be regarded less favorably by voters that have information on the sources of funding to offset this unpopularity effect politicians may either demand more money for campaign advertising from these industries in order to persuade less informed voters or shy away from unpopular contributors to avoid losing the support of the informed electorate our model predicts that the first effect dominates and electoral contributions are increasing in industry unpopularity by using u s house elections data and different identification strategies we provide robust evidence in favor of our predictions jel d72 p16

the deindustrialisation tertiarisation hypothesis reconsidered a subsystem application to the oecd7 the diffusion of outsourcing both national and international and vertical fdis among manufacturing firms along with the higher integra tion of business services in manufacturing has recently led to question the empirical evidence supporting the deindustrialisation tertiarisation dt hypothesis rather than a real phenomenon it has been argued dt would be an apparent one mainly due to the reorganization of production across national and sectoral boundaries the empirical studies that have dealt with the topic so far have not been able to effectively rule out such possibility because of two main limitations the sectoral level of the analysis and or the national focus in order to overcome them the paper carries out an appreciative investigation of the actual extent of the dt occurred in the oecd area over the 80s and the 90s by moving from a sector to a subsystem perspective thus retaining both direct and indirect relations and by referring to a pseudo world of 7 oecd countries thus taking into account the global dimension of the phenomenon the results strongly support the dt hypothesis although the weight of business sector services in the manufacturing subsystem increased acting as a counterbalancing tendency to the manufacturing decline subsystem shares significantly decreased thus confirming dt as a more fundamental trend of modern economies

campaign allocations under probabilistic voting we develop a probabilistic voting model where candidates compete by advertising in different media markets ads are viewed by everyone within a market and cannot be targeted to subgroups such as one candidate s partisans candidates estimate the distribution of voter preference intensities in a market and campaign ads then shift this distribution individuals with any intensity vote with some probability for each candidate we derive comparative static implications of changes in a variety of factors on the advertising decisions of each candidate using campaign advertising data from 2002 we find these results to be consistent with actual campaign allocation behavior

how significant is intersectoral outsourcing of employment in south africa south africa like many other middle income countries as well as most upper income countries has seen an increase in services and fall in manufacturing as shares of total employment there has been speculation about the extent to which these changes actually represent a genuine structural shift as opposed to a statistical artifact deriving from the domestic outsourcing of activities from manufacturing to services very limited evidence is available as to how much of the apparent changes in the sectoral composition of employment are explained by intersectoral outsourcing this article develops a methodology using household and labor survey data to analyze the extent of intersectoral outsourcing of specific labor intensive activities in south africa from 1997 2007 it is shown that the relatively high growth in services employment is driven by expansion of employment of cleaners and security guards and in particular by outsourcing type reallocation of these activities from manufacturing and the public sector toward private services once outsourcing is accounted for employment seems to have grown at similar rates in manufacturing and in private services the analysis has implications for understanding changes in the sectoral structure of middle income economies and whether services employment is as dynamic as it appears to be copyright 2010 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

an experimental study of alternative campaign finance systems transparency donations and policy choices we experimentally study the transparency effect of alternative campaign finance systems on donations election outcomes policy choices and welfare three alternatives are considered one where donors preferences and donations are unobserved by the candidate and public one where they are observed by the candidate but not the public and one where they are observed by all we label them full anonymity fa partial anonymity pa and no anonymity na respectively we find that in na and pa candidates consistently respond to donations by choosing policies favoring the donors fa in contrast is the most successful in limiting the influence of donations on policy choices donors benefit greatly from the possibility of donations whereas social welfare may be harmed in some treatments to our knowledge this article is the first to investigate the effect of different campaign finance systems distinguished by their transparency level jel d72

age analysis of the impact of a carbon energy tax on the irish economy a computable general equilibrium model with specific detail in taxation and energy use is developed in this paper to quantify the impact of the implementation of energy taxation to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in ireland benchmark data combining physical energy and emissions data and economic data in the form of a social accounting matrix sam had to be compiled from various data sources because energy and pollution accounts from the seea are not available for ireland we find that the reduction target for energy related co2 emissions in ireland of 25 8 compared to 1998 levels can be achieved with a carbon energy tax of 10 15 euros per tonne of co2 though fuel switching is important in meeting the target this result is more sensitive to the possibilities for producers to substitute away from energy use welfare would fall but only by small percentages production and consumption patterns would change more significantly with a shift in demand from fuels with a high emission factor to energy sources with a lower carbon intensity and from energy to other commodities this paper confirms that a carbon energy tax leads to greater emission reductions than an equivalent uniform energy tax the latter has a stronger negative impact on the less polluting energy sectors whereas the carbon tax greatly stimulates the use of renewable energy and reduces the use of peat and coal the new sam the model and the application to energy taxes contribute to a better informed debate on environmental policy in ireland

advertising effects in presidential elections presidential elections provide both an important context in which to study advertising and a setting that mitigates the challenges of dynamics and endogeneity we use the 2000 and 2004 general elections to analyze the effect of market level advertising on county level vote shares the results indicate significant positive effects of advertising exposures both instrumental variables and fixed effects alter the ad coefficient advertising elasticities are smaller than are typical for branded goods yet significant enough to shift election outcomes for example if advertising were set to zero and all other factors held constant three states electoral votes would have changed parties in 2000 given the narrow margin of victory in 2000 this shift would have resulted in a different president

campaign contributions as investments the u s house of representatives 1980 1986 this paper treats the market for special interest campaign contributions and political favors as a simple asset market the model yields a simple equilibrium relationship among three variables the total amount of investor contributions a candidate receives the monetary value of the favors he has promised and his probability of winning using data on open seat races for the u s house of representatives i confront the model with a series of tests despite the starkness of the model the results of these tests are highly supportive

campaign finance and voter welfare with entrenched incumbents two candidates compete for elective office each candidate has information she would like to reveal to the voters but this requires costly advertising the candidates can solicit contributions from interest groups to finance such advertising these contributions are secured by promises to perform favors for the contributors should the candidate win the election voters understand this and elect the candidate they like best taking into account their expectations about promises to special interests there is an incumbency advantage in fundraising which is sometimes so great that the incumbent faces no serious opposition at all introducing partial public financing through matching funds improves voter welfare in districts that have advertising under the decentralized system while it can reduce welfare in other districts the optimal policy must strike a balance between these two effects

foreign direct investment and de industrialisation the purpose of this study is to discuss the various issues regarding de industrialisation and to systematically analyse the causes of this phenomenon in addition the effect of the recent increase in foreign direct investment on de industrialisation will be analysed unlike extant studies this study employs a more reliable method of estimation known as the generalised method of moments system for establishing the importance of foreign direct investment fdi with regard to de industrialisation for a general assessment of the different factors of de industrialisation including fdi this study classifies the causes of de industrialisation in oecd countries into external and internal factors as a result the analysis has proved that not only internal and external factors are major factors of de industrialisation fdi inflow and outflow are also major factors

negative campaigning in a probabilistic voting model this paper extends the small existing theoretical literature on negative campaigning building on work by harrington and hess games econ behav 17 209 229 1996 while their analysis explores the determinants of negative campaign spending using a classic spatial voting model this paper relies instead on a probabilistic voting model extending the use of this popular model to a new setting the main lesson of the analysis is that negative campaign spending is higher for the relatively more centrist candidate the more extreme candidate in the electoral contest devotes by contrast comparatively more of her funds to positive campaign spending this result which at first appears unrelated to the main findings of harrington and hess games econ behav 17 209 229 1996 and chakrabarti scottish j polit econ 54 136 149 2007 actually can be viewed as aligning with their conclusions although the underlying mechanics are very different the paper also offers an empirical test of this prediction

running out of steam manufacturing in malaysia this article examines the process of deindustrialisation in developing countries looking at the case of malaysia it provides a framework to examine how industrial structure and domestic technological capabilities are affected by the wider challenges of late industrialisation changes in global accumulation and domestic class formations it discusses the emerging evidence of malaysia s premature deindustrialisation and how this is the result of broader accumulation strategies that were primarily driven by internal factors related to the emergence of a malay middle class and supported by changes in global accumulation processes related to the development of global production networks and financialisation

explaining deindustrialization globalization failure or success although sociologists have expressed growing interest in globalization they have devoted little sustained empirical attention to the many claims made in its name i focus on the link that has been drawn between globalization and the deindustrialization of the advanced industrial societies to examine this i employ a pooled time series of cross sections data set that combines observations on 18 oecd nations across the 1968 1992 period fixed effects regression models that control for unmeasured country specific effects reveal support for arguments that implicate foreign direct investment and north south trade in the declining percentage of the labor force employed in manufacturing in the oecd countries regression results also show that deindustrialization across this period is largely explained by a model that combines an attention to the post golden age troubles of northern manufacturing with classic generalizations of the process of development interpretation of the empirical findings is tempered by an exercise in counterfactual history which reveals that deindustrialization would have been considerable in these countries even if the upswings in direct investment and southern imports had not occurred or if the performance of the manufacturing sector had been stronger

campaign spending limits incumbent spending and election outcomes abstract we study the impact of campaign spending limits for candidates in canadian federal elections we first demonstrate that spending limits are binding mostly for incumbent candidates we then use this information to produce endogeneity corrected estimates for the impact of incumbent spending on electoral vote shares furthermore we examine the impact of spending limits on broader measures of electoral outcomes finding that larger limits lead to less close elections fewer candidates and lower voter turnout

economic globalization and the welfare state in affluent democracies 1975 1998 prior scholarship is sharply divided on how or if globalization influences welfare states globalization s effects may be positive causing expansion negative triggering crisis and reduction curvilinear contributing to convergence or insignificant we bring new evidence to bear on this crucial debate with a pooled time series analysis of two measures of the welfare state and 16 indicators of economic globalization for 17 affluent democracies from 1975 to 1998 the analysis suggests that 1 state of the art welfare state models warrant revision in the globalization era 2 most indicators of economic globalization do not have significant effects 3 the few significant globalization effects are in different directions and often inconsistent with extant theories 4 the globalization effects are far smaller than the effects of domestic political and economic factors and 5 these effects are not systematically different for liberal vs nonliberal welfare state regimes european vs non european countries or with four alternative dependent variables increased globalization and a modest convergence of the welfare state have occurred but globalization does not unambiguously cause welfare state expansion crisis and reduction or convergence bisherige befunde der sozialwissenschaftlichen forschung zum kausalen verhaltnis von globalisierung und wohlfahrtsstaat sind nicht eindeutig danach kann globalisierung positive effekte haben und zu einem ausbau an wohlfahrtsstaatlichkeit fuhren eine krise des wohlfahrtsstaates oder leistungsreduktionen herbeifuhren kurvilineare wirkungen aufweisen und zu konvergenz beitragen als auch vollkommen insignifikant sein unsere gepoolte zeitreihenanalyse von wohlfahrtsstaatlichkeit und globalisierung in 17 reichen demokratien 1975 1998 hat folgende befunde zu tage gefordert 1 im zeitalter der globalisierung erscheinen bestehende wohlfahrtsstaatsmodelle revisionsbedurftig 2 die mehrzahl der okonomischen globalisierungsindikatoren weist keine signifikanten effekte auf 3 die wenigen signifikanten effekte zeigen in unterschiedliche richtungen und stimmen haufig nicht mit bestehenden theoretischen annahmen uberein 4 die globalisierungseffekte sind deutlich kleiner als die effekte binnenpolitischer variablen und okonomischer faktoren 5 diese effekte unterscheiden sich in liberalen und nicht liberalen wohlfahrtsregimen bzw europaischen und nicht europaischen landern nicht systematisch von einander im analysezeitraum konnen wir sowohl einen anstieg der verschiedenen globalisierungsindikatoren sowie eine moderate konvergenz der verschiedenen wohlfahrtsstaaten konstatieren jedoch kann der prozess der globalisierung nicht eindeutig als kausale ursache fur die unterschiedlichen entwicklungsrichtungen in den verschiedenen wohlfahrtsstaaten identifiziert werden

the campaign value of incumbency a new solution to the puzzle of less effective incumbent spending a puzzle in research on campaign spending is that while expenditure is positively related to votes won this effect is far more strongly or even exclusively enjoyed by challengers rather than by incumbents we unearth a new explanation for the puzzle focusing on the hidden yet variable campaign value of office perquisites which incumbents deploy in their campaigns to win votes when these variable office benefits are unobserved then the effect is to make observed incumbent spending less effective than spending by challengers using data from the 2002 irish general election where incumbency was assigned a variable campaign value and included in declared campaign spending we are able to demonstrate this hidden incumbency effect and estimate its relationship to electoral success in terms of overall votes share of votes and probability of winning a seat contrary to previous research showing ineffective incumbent spending we find that when the campaign value of office is also measured public office value spending is not only very effective in winning votes but also seems to be more effective than regular incumbent spending

using repeat challengers to estimate the effect of campaign spending on election outcomes in the u s house previous studies of congressional spending have typically found a large positive effect of challenger spending but little evidence for effects of incumbent spending those studies however do not adequately control for inherent differences in vote getting ability across candidates high quality challengers are likely to receive a high fraction of the vote and have high campaign expenditures even if campaign spending has no impact on election outcomes to avoid that bias this paper examines elections in which the same two candidates face one another on more than one occasion differencing eliminates the influence of any fixed candidate or district attributes estimates of the effects of challenger spending are an order of magnitude below those of previous studies campaign spending has an extremely small impact on election outcomes regardless of who does the spending campaign spending limits appear socially desirable but public financing of campaigns does not

unravelling the global city debate on social inequality a firm level analysis of wage inequality in amsterdam and rotterdam in this article an assessment is made of the consequences of globalisation for urban wage inequality using data on employers in the dutch cities of amsterdam and rotterdam it is shown that simpl

campaign spending in proportional electoral systems incumbents versus challengers revisited this article a argues that campaign spending is no more effective for challengers than incumbents in congressional elections using candidate centered forms of proportional representation pr b develops a new method to estimate spending effects in poly candidate elections and c demonstrates that spending benefits incumbents as much as challengers in the congressional elections of three separate countries brazil ireland and finland this article also offers a theory of campaign spending effectiveness that emphasizes a candidate s relative potential to attract new electoral support as determined by both precampaign familiarity and personal partisan and ideological attributes challengers and incumbents obtain similar returns to spending under pr because its permissiveness encourages challengers who are limited in their abilities to build electoral support even when they spend heavily the theory and findings have important implications for understanding the effects of campaign finance and cam

are campaign contributions a form of speech evidence from recent us house elections this paper investigates the effects of the sources ofcandidates campaign funding on their electoral outcomes withparticular emphasis on whether candidates who rely on a narrowbase of funding suffer adverse electoral consequences anextensive dataset consisting of over 650 000 contributions tohouse candidates in elections from 1980 to 1992 is used theresults reveal a negative relationship between theconcentration of contributions and voteshare for open seatcandidates and challengers this finding appears to havesignificant implications for some of the empirical premisesunderlying the u s supreme court s landmark buckley v valeo decision at the very least it represents an importantstylized fact about us elections that is robust over 1980 1992 period

assessing the temporal variation of macroeconomic forecasts by a panel of changing composition this paper calls attention to the problem of changing panel composition in surveys of forecasters and documents the problem in the survey of professional forecasters to study the temporal variation of forecasts we recommend analysis of the time series of predictions made by individual forecasters this makes transparent the heterogeneity of the panel and avoids improper inferences due to changing panel composition we warn against the traditional practice of aggregate time series analysis which con ates changes in the expectations of individual forecasters with changes in the composition of the panel should analysis of aggregated predictions be thought desirable as a simplifying device we recommend analyses of sub panels of xed composition

strategic politicians and unresponsive voters t0 resolve the paradoxical finding that economic conditions and presidential popularity powerfully relate to quadrennial movement in the house vote but explain little individual voting variation jacobson and kernell have advanced their strategic politicians model of midterm elections purportedly the early year political environment helps determine how many of a party s strong potential contenders risk challenging incumbents voters in turn respond to the quality of candidates before them in november and thus indirectly reward the party favored by this early year environment despite its current prominence however the theory does not stand up to empirical investigation a time series equation of midterm outcomes regressed on early year national conditions does not fare particularly well when contrasted with comparable equations assuming direct effects voting furthermore challenger quality has only a weak influence on individual voters subordinate in fact to the effects of economic attitudes and presidential evaluations

service competitiveness and urban innovation policies in the uk the implications of the london paradox wood p service competitiveness and urban innovation policies in the uk the implications of the london paradox regional studies the policy models currently employed in british cities to promote urban economic innovativeness and competitiveness echo national policies by being science manufacturing and technology based yet the most powerful driver of both modern uk economic success and regional and urban inequality has been london based innovation this does not depend on local technological initiatives but on labour intensive knowledge based processes especially within the financial and business services this paper examines the importance of service based innovation and competitiveness in the english urban system dominated by london and its implications for urban innovation policies these currently offer little support to other uk cities either in gaining from london s experience of service led success or challenging its dominance over the most innovative tradable services wood p les po

explaining deindustrialization how affluence productivity growth and globalization diminish manufacturing employment1 this study analyzes why the world s most economically advanced countries have deindustrialized over the last few decades previous research focuses on three causal factors 1 rising consumer affluence and its propensity to increase demand for services more than for manufactured goods 2 faster productivity growth in the manufacturing sector relative to other sectors and 3 expanding trade linkages between the north and the south of the global economy the relative importance of these factors however is not fully understood because previous research has not tested all of these explanations simultaneously nor considered the indirect channels through which global trade may cause deindustrialization this study tests the three factors with two way fixed effects regression models and panel data on 18 oecd countries from 1970 to 2003 the results indicate that each factor makes significant contributions to deindustrialization and that global trade exerts both direct and indirect effects on employment

an integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies most public policies particularly those in the energy sphere have not only efficiency but also distributional effects however there is a trade off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy for the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis this paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation in order to do so we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the spanish economy we illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue neutral reform in spanish indirect taxation with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose the results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects in some cases counterintuitive and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation

the effects of campaign spending in house elections new evidence for old arguments the question of how campaign spending affects election results remains open because the simultaneity problem has proven so intractable green and krasno s 1988 recent attempt to solve the problem and to demonstrate that marginal returns on spending are as great for incumbents as for challengers again comes up short a panel feature of the abc newslwashington post congressional district poll conducted during the 1986 elections offers a fresh perspective on the question analysis of changes in voting intentions during the final six weeks of the campaign shows that as the tainted ols studies have invariably suggested the amount spent by the challenger is far more important in accounting for voter s decisions than is the amount spent by the incumbent

the impact of campaign spending on votes in multiparty elections abstract the impact of candidate campaign spending on votes and abstention in multiparty elections is estimated from the specification of a structural model of voter behavior this model accounts for the endogeneity of campaign spending as well as the heterogeneity in voter preferences empirical results are estimated from aggregate actual election data the results demonstrate the importance of spending during the campaign period and voter heterogeneity with respect to these expenditures the own and cross expenditure vote share elasticity estimates reveal that political campaign spending not only redistributes voters across parties but also decreases the size of the abstaining group of the electorate

district complexity as an advantage in congressional elections scholars of congressional elections have argued that an increase in constituent diversity increases the level of electoral competition following models of boundedly rational candidates we argue that there is strong reason to believe that the opposite is true as the complexity of the electoral landscape increases challengers will have a more difficult time locating an optimal platform when facing an experienced incumbent using data from the 2000 national annenberg election study we construct a novel measure of district complexity for u s house districts and test whether the entry of quality challengers and the incumbent s share of the two party vote are affected by the complexity of the electoral landscape we find strong support for the hypothesis that complexity benefits incumbents for both indicators of electoral competition which stands in contrast to most of the existing literature on diversity and incumbent performance

china s future energy mix and emissions reduction potential a scenario analysis incorporating technological learning curves abstract this paper examines the impacts of co 2 emission reduction targets and carbon taxes on the structure of power generation in china a model is developed to minimize the total electricity generation cost and select the optimal energy technology and resource mix for china the model contributes to existing work by utilizing the learning curve concept which manifests as diminishing costs of production and includes constraints for minimum energy generation and also an emissions cap the result shows that the introduction of the co 2 emission reduction targets and carbon taxes both shift energy production technologies away from high carbon content fossil fuels towards low carbon content fossil based and renewable energies co 2 emission reduction targets turn out to be more effective in the early years while carbon taxes become more effective in the later periods perhaps unsurprisingly all options result in a net increase in total production costs in addition some scenario analyses are conducted to consider the possible roles of shale gas and improved carbon capture and storage technologies showing the general conclusions to be robust

policy responsiveness and incumbent reelection in state legislatures does policy responsiveness on the part of incumbent legislators affect their prospects for reelection recent studies of congressional campaigns demonstrate that incumbents who support policies that are more congruent with their constituents preferences face fewer reelection obstacles the present analysis considers this question in state legislative elections where voter knowledge of legislator activities is generally quite low the findings demonstrate that incumbents positioned farther from the average citizen and toward their party s base are only slightly more likely to be challenged than other incumbents however more partisan voting incumbents do attract challengers capable of raising and spending larger amounts of money interestingly incumbents positioned closer to their party s base actually receive a greater share of the vote in most contested elections only when challengers spend significant amounts of money do we see the positive effects of partisan voting by incumbents diminished overall these findings demonstrate the mechanisms by which policy positions of incumbents in a low information environment affect the challengers that emerge and the level of voter support received

campaign advertising and election outcomes quasi natural experiment evidence from gubernatorial elections in brazil whether campaign advertising influences election outcomes is an open question a paradox given the amount spent on campaigning in general and tv advertising in particular we argue that such absence of documentation is due to the focus of the empirical literature on the u s where the allocation of campaign spending and advertising is decentralized we explore a quasi natural experiment that enables us to mitigate the omitted variables and reverse causality problems caused by decentralized allocation in brazil gubernatorial elections work in a two round system in the first round candidates tv time shares are determined by their coalitions share of seats in the national parliament in the second round tv time is split equally between the first round winner and runner up using differences between rounds as a source of variation we find a large causal effect of tv advertising on election outcomes

the impact of surges in net private capital inflows on manufacturing investment and unemployment abstract we use local projection methods to examine the dynamic response of surges in net private capital inflows on the output and employment shares of manufacturing the investment output ratio and the unemployment rate high income countries are studied separately from emerging economies both from asia and latin america our sample covers the years from 1970 to 2010 we find that surges in high income countries do not magnify the trend toward deindustrialization however the persistent decline in the investment to gdp ratio and the rise in the overall unemployment rate suggest that surges may negatively affect longer run growth prospects and employment opportunities in these countries in middle income asian countries surges tend to induce deindustrialization in both output and employment in the medium run but they do not lower the investment to gdp ratio in middle income latin america surges speed up deindustrialization lower investment and raise economy wide unemployment

energy policymaking in denmark implications for global energy security and sustainability denmark is arguably the most energy secure and sustainable country in the organization of economic cooperation and development oecd the country has reduced its dependence on foreign sources of energy to zero and become self sufficient in its own energy production and use offering important lessons for other nations around the world this study explores the core of denmark s successful approach a commitment to energy efficiency prolonged taxes on energy fuels electricity and carbon dioxide and incentives for combined heat and power chp and wind turbines through these commitments the study shows how denmark transitioned from being almost 100 percent dependent on imported fuels such as oil and coal for their power plants in 1970 to becoming a net exporter of fuels and electricity today the country leads the world in terms of exportation of wind energy technology with a hold on roughly one third of the world market for wind turbines it was able to phase out the use of virtually all oil fired power plants in less than five years and implemented a progressive moratorium on future coal fired power plants in the 1990s their most recent strategy seeks to achieve 30 percent of total energy supply from renewable energy by 2025

strategic campaigns and redistributive politics the article investigates strategic informative campaigning by two parties when politics concern redistribution voters are uncertain about whether parties favour special groups parties will target campaigns on groups where most votes are gained by informing about policies in equilibrium campaigning will be most intensive in groups where the uncertainty is largest and where voters are most mobile most likely to vote most receptive to campaigns and relatively uninformed initially these groups will become more informed about policy parties will therefore gain more votes by treating these groups well so these groups will gain from strategic campaigning welfare effects are assessed

field experiments testing the impact of radio advertisements on electoral competition results from previous studies of campaign spending imply that equal sized grants to both incumbents and challengers are a net benefit to challengers who on average spend less money and derive greater marginal returns from each additional dollar this study provides an experimental test of this proposition cities holding mayoral elections in november 2005 and 2006 were randomly assigned to broadcast nonpartisan radio ads that stated the names of the mayoral candidates reminded listeners about the date of the upcoming election and encouraged them to vote consistent with the findings of previous studies on the differential effects of incumbent and challenger campaign spending on election outcomes we find that these radio ads produced substantially more competitive elections the borderline statistical significance of our results however invites replication of this experiment

decomposing brazilian manufacturing industry dynamics in the mid 2000s macroeconomic factors and their sectoral impacts abstract the manufacturing industry s loss in participation phenomena called deindustrialization has been observed for the brazilian economy for a while and seems to have intensified from mid 2000s however the literature has not developed a consistent or integrated analysis of this process we have used a detailed simulation model to identify how macroeconomic factors such as exchange rate labor costs and household consumption have contributed to manufacturing dynamics our results indicate that the macroeconomic scenario explains a large portion of the manufacturing industry s participation loss the rise in households consumption and investment important factors in this period were responsible for dampening of the pressures coming from the currency appreciation and the workforce costs benefiting some industrial sectors but not avoiding the manufacturings participation loss

clientelism and vote buying lessons from field experiments in african elections electoral clientelism and vote buying are widely perceived as major obstacles to economic development this is because they may limit the provision of public goods in this paper we review the literature on clientelism and vote buying and propose the use of field experiments to evaluate empirically the consequences of these phenomena we provide an overview discuss implementation and interpret the main results of recent field experiments conducted by the authors in west african countries clientelism and vote buying seem to be effective and to enjoy widespread electoral support the results suggest that increased access to information and political participation by women may limit clientelism in addition voter education campaigns may undermine the effects of vote buying on voting behaviour we argue that our findings may inform the design of development aid interventions as a way effectively to increase public good political accountability we also discuss directions for fruitful future research copyright 2009 oxford university press