ultimate recovery mixtures abstract we propose a relatively simple accurate and flexible approach to forecasting the distribution of defaulted debt recovery outcomes our approach is based on mixtures of gaussian distributions explicitly conditioned on borrower characteristics debt instrument characteristics and credit conditions at the time of default using moody s ultimate recovery database we show that our mixture specification yields more accurate forecasts of ultimate recoveries on portfolios of defaulted loans and bonds on an out of sample basis than popular regression based estimates further the economically interpretable outputs of our model provide a richer characterization of how conditioning variables affect recovery outcomes than competing approaches the latter benefit is of particular importance in understanding shifts in the relative likelihood of extreme recovery outcomes that tend to be realized more frequently than observations near the distributional mean

tunisia s lending program to smes anatomy of an institutional failure this paper studies a case of what in many respects is an institutional failure it is the popular lending program in tunisia known as foprodi created in 1974 for the promotion of small and medium manufacturing enterprises smes and for the decentralization of industry foprodi s announced aim was to help new entrepreneurs with insufficient capital to start their businesses and thereby to create new jobs because of an extremely low repayment rate the program has failed in the sense that it became unsustainable and indeed finally collapsed in 1997 while there are some bases for believing that foprodi may have been more successful than it might seem in social terms at this point it seems to have been a failure the sources of its institutional failure are traced to inappropriate incentives attributable both to the institutional structure surrounding foprodi and its own rules the findings are then used to generate policy recommendations on ways in which similar programs could be better designed transaction costs reduced and the outcomes obtained more satisfactory

monte carlo benchmarks for discrete response valuation methods this paper argues that the belief that discrete contingent valuation cv questions yield substantially larger estimates of the mean and the median willingness to pay wtp for nonmarket resources in comparison to open ended cv questions is unfounded monte carlo experiments estimate the factors influencing the performance of wtp estimates based on discrete response models most of the error arises from the specification errors common to the empirical models in the literature these experiments suggest models where wtp is dominated by nonuse or passive use values are likely to have smaller errors than where large use values influence these decisions

sensitivity of willingness to pay estimates to bid design in dichotomous choice contingent valuation models this paper addresses the sensitivity of dichotomous choice contingent valuation method dc cvm based mean willingness to pay wtp estimates to the dc cvm sample design and to alternative measures of wtp this issue is examined both analytically and empirically the analysis of ten different dc cvm data sets revealed a sensitivity in estimated mean wtp to the sample design and to the measure chosen to calculate mean wtp

comparing ranking and contingent valuation for valuing human lives applying nested and non nested logit models the aim of this paper is to investigate whetherrespondents perceive a discrete choice contingentvaluation dc cvm question differently from a rankingquestion we combine the two approaches to valuepublic projects that try to prevent people from dyingprematurely the combined valuation procedure enablesus to investigate the internal consistency of theutility structure between choices applying nested andnon nested logit models if the preference structureis allowed to shift the relative utility weights ofthe attributes differ between the valuation questions and the willingness to pay wtp estimate from thecombined procedure changes

a satisfactory benefit cost indicator from contingent valuation abstract standard economic concepts are used to develop a model of individual behavior when subject to the constraints of the contingent valuation choice context the model yields refutable consequences that are consistent with previously reported empirical findings including some that have been thought to be anomalous the model is used to show that different contingent valuation formats have predictably different performance characteristics notably the hicksian compensating measures are satisfactory benefit cost indicators when elicited using any one of several formats identified in the text of the formats examined one form of a policy referendum appears to have the most satisfactory characteristics overall we conclude that contingent valuation is a progressing research program

renewables portfolio individual preferences and social values towards res technologies abstract the massive deployment of renewable energy sources represents a high priority for greece in order to comply with the directive 2009 28 ec on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources by 2020 in this perspective aegean islands especially lesvos are endowed with a considerable potential of a portfolio of renewables a fact that the entrepreneurial interest has already been targeted however regulatory attempts for a massive penetration of renewables do not take seriously into account preferences and risk perceptions of local communities where the proposed projects are to be installed the aim of this study is to investigate individual preferences and social values towards specific technologies of renewables in lesvos island we apply an open ended contingent valuation survey in order to analyze factors shaping public attitudes towards a portfolio of renewable technologies and estimate the economic welfare willingness to pay of the preferred technologies we argue that such information is relevant for energy policy design and the establishment of effective measures for the promotion of renewable energy sources

forecasting bank loans loss given default abstract with the advent of the new basel capital accord banking organizations are invited to estimate credit risk capital requirements using an internal ratings based approach in order to be compliant with this approach institutions must estimate the loss given default the fraction of the credit exposure that is lost if the borrower defaults this study evaluates the ability of a parametric fractional response regression and a nonparametric regression tree model to forecast bank loan credit losses the out of sample predictive ability of these models is evaluated at several recovery horizons after the default event the out of time predictive ability is also estimated for a recovery horizon of 1 year the performance of the models is benchmarked against recovery estimates given by historical averages the results suggest that regression trees are an interesting alternative to parametric models in modeling and forecasting loss given default

a new paradigm for valuing non market goods using referendum data maximum likelihood estimation by censored logistic regression abstract this paper challenges the w m hanemann amer j agr econom 66 332 341 1984 and c sellar j p chavas and j r stoll j environ econom management 13 382 390 1986 utilizations of logit models to estimate the value of non market resources from referendum survey data these data are more informative than conventional choice data the random utility interpretation of logit models is therefore too restrictive bypassing the utility function entirely it will be shown that parameters and standard errors for utility theoretic inverse hicksian demand functions can be extracted directly and much more simply estimated demand functions need not be limited to those corresponding to the linear in parameters utility difference specifications which can be handled by packaged logit programs

validation of empirical measures of welfare change a comparison of nonmarket techniques since the passing of the flood control act of 1936 the attention of many resource economists has been directed towards measuring the benefits and costs of alternative uses of natural resources increasingly it has been recognized that the value of some of these uses is not explicitly determined through market transactions this has led to the focus of much attention upon the development of nonmarket methods to estimate the value of these uses in the 1940s the groundwork for the travel cost method was established by hotelling prewitt 1949 following this in the 1960s davis initiated the basic foundation for bidding methods davis 1963 which were later to be subsumed under the heading of contingent valuation methods brookshire randall and stoll 1980 schulze d arge and brookshire 1981 thayer 1981 both of these methods will be further discussed below in addition to these two methods a third approach the unit day value method has been recognized as acceptable but not preferred for the valuation of recreational uses of water and related land resources dwyer kelley and bowes 1977 u s water resources council 1979 given the existence of alternative methods of estimating the value of resource uses several obvious questions arise one of the first of these is under what circumstances is each method most appropriate existing literature has focussed sufficiently on this question and pointed out limitations of each especially the travel cost method and unit day value methods brookshire ives and schulze 1976 dwyer kelly and bowes 1977 freeman 1979 mcconnell 1975 randall ives and eastman 1977 schulze d arge and brook

support vector regression for loss given default modelling abstract loss given default modelling has become crucially important for banks due to the requirement that they comply with the basel accords and to their internal computations of economic capital in this paper support vector regression svr techniques are applied to predict loss given default of corporate bonds where improvements are proposed to increase prediction accuracy by modifying the svr algorithm to account for heterogeneity of bond seniorities we compare the predictions from svr techniques with thirteen other algorithms our paper has three important results first at an aggregated level the proposed improved versions of support vector regression techniques outperform other methods significantly second at a segmented level by bond seniority least square support vector regression demonstrates significantly better predictive abilities compared with the other statistical models third standard transformations of loss given default do not improve prediction accuracy overall our empirical results show that support vector regression techniques are a promising technique for banks to use to predict loss given default

stated preferences real behaviour and anchoring some empirical evidence we compare different contingent valuation question formats with each other and with observed behaviour for a non monetary estimation task the expected number of kilometers travelled by automobile open ended questions open ended follow up questions dichotomous choice dc questions and double bound dc questions are included the single and double bound dc questions result in an estimated mean about twice as high as the actual value and the open ended mean the dc question overestimation seems to be due to an anchoring effect leading to yea saying behaviour our results about the difference between dc questions and open ended questions is consistent with the pattern observed in contingent valuations studies of the willingness to pay our results indicates that dc questions seem to be associated with a general overestimation problem that is present even for simple non monetary estimation tasks

a convergent validity test within the payment card format using simulation techniques a convergent validity test is performed between two groups of versions of the payment card format the first group the classic payment card cpc asks respondents to report their willingness to p

contingent valuation experiments for strategic behavior abstract the existence and extent of strategic disclosures in field contingent valuation surveys have been debated but few empirical studies are available this paper summarizes the results of an experiment to identify strategic behavior using alternative disclosure mechanisms with closed ended and open ended formats in addition the experiment examined the effect of mechanism design on respondent s ability and willingness to disclose their personal valuation statistical results using censored discrete regression analysis and nonparameteric means tests provide some evidence of systematic differences due to strategic behavior but the comparisons are inconclusive due to the significant influence of sample selection on valuation results using closed ended formats and the inherent limitations of comparative means test procedures evidence from this analysis cannot refute the hypothesis that respondents try to the best of their ability to provide truthful information but the procedures used to interpret this information can have a significant effect on aggregate valuation results

an experimental testing of anchoring effects in discrete choice questions this paper re examines the openended dichotomous choice question in the lab it hasearlier been suggested that the dichotomous choiceformat suffers from anchoring and yea saying comparing actual economic commitments for a privategood with a significant market value we cannot rejectthe null hypothesis of equal wtp for the two formats we conclude that problems with dc might be due toissues of how the survey is framed not the dcquestion itself

valuing the visual impact of wind farms an application in south evia greece abstract this study presents an application of the contingent valuation method cvm for valuing the landscape externalities associated with the large scale exploitation of wind power at the local level the survey was undertaken in south evia greece which is a region with rich wind energy potential and a considerable number of wind farms in operation during the period of the study the results showed that 57 of the households are not willing to contribute financially in order to implement interventions to mitigate the visual impact of wind farms he mean willingness to pay per household to avoid the visual impact attributed to the installation of new wind farms in the area in question was estimated at 41 6 year taking into account all households of the sample this estimate is relatively lower compared to the results of other relevant studies as shown by a meta analysis developed based on these studies this is mainly attributed to the great recession in greece and the reduced available income of households

fat tails and truncated bids in contingent valuation an application to an endangered shorebird species a yes response function in a contingent valuation study is said to have fat tails if it has a high and slowly declining yes response rate at high bid levels truncated bids refer to the practice of dropping high bid offers before a yes response rate of near zero is reached this is a common practice in contingent valuation we explore the extent and implications of fat tails and truncated bids in a study of an endangered shorebird species we find among other things that mean willingness to pay is quite sensitive to the highest bid offered so much so that the choice of highest bid nearly dictates outcomes

the determinants of recovery rates in the us corporate bond market we examine recovery rates of defaulted bonds in the us corporate bond market based on a complete set of traded prices and volumes a study of the trading microstructure around various types of default events is provided we document temporary price pressure with high trading volumes on the default day and the following 30 days and low trading activity thereafter based on this analysis we determine market based recovery rates and quantify various liquidity measures we study the relation between the recovery rates and these measures considering additionally a comprehensive set of bond characteristics firm fundamentals and macroeconomic variables

the determinants of bank loan recovery rates in good times and bad new evidence abstract we find that factors explaining bank loan recovery rates differ depending on the state of an underlying credit cycle our modelling approach incorporates a two state markov switching mechanism to capture underlying economic conditions this latent credit cycle variable helps to explain differences in observed recovery rates over time using us bank default loan data from moody s ultimate recovery database and covering the pre and post global financial crisis gfc period the paper develops and implements a dynamic model for bank loan recovery rates we accommodate the distinctive empirical features of the recovery rate data while incorporating a large number of possible determinants we find that certain loan specific and other variables hold different explanatory power with respect to recovery rates in good versus bad times in the credit cycle i e depending on underlying credit market conditions our findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for counter cyclical expected recovery rates when determining capital retention levels

on the gap between payment card and closed ended cvm answers the paper presents contingent valuation cv estimates of benefits provided by a proposed kalkalpen national park in austria although descriptive results of welfare measures are presented the focus of the paper is on methodological questions concerning the analysis of cv answers evidence is given regarding the difference between payment card pc answers and closed ended question formats based on different estimation models for cv questions substantial differences are found between closed ended and payment card welfare measures on average pc willingness to pay wtp measures are below the closed ended figures since the evaluation models are based on different premises in the calculation of wtp figures a more precise disclosure of the underlying evaluation methods is required if different question formats are compared to one another identical assumptions on the probability distributions have to be assumed whenever open and closed ended cv welfare measures are compared taking theoretical argument

on helping small enterprises in developing countries abstract given the increasing interest in the role that small scale and informal economic activities play in the development process the paper suggests a particular growth strategy not considered in the typical demand and supply strategies in the past referring to those small informal sector enterprises that employ workers as distinct from those that employ only family members the paper suggests giving credit to owners through the workers on certain conditions as a way of inducing economic growth with a certain conception of justice it is felt that not only will this provide those at the bottom the prideful sense of feeling independent it will also discourage a way of life that has a natural tendency to exploit those in an even more unfavorable position

differences between willingness to pay estimates from open ended and discrete choice contingent valuation methods the effects of heteroscedasticity most comparative studies find that the discrete choice contingent valuation method dc cvm yields higher willingness to pay wtp estimates than the open ended oe format in this paper we discuss and test several hypotheses to explain why wtp estimates from oe and dc cvm questions differ we find that wtp estimates from discrete choice data are very sensitive to assumptions made about the random utility in particular violation of the homoscedasticity assumption may lead to biased wtp estimates if the error terms are correlated with the cost this violation was a main source of difference in wtp estimates in our studies

can defaults save the climate evidence from a field experiment on carbon offsetting programs individual preferences for environmental policies can be influenced by the frame in which choices and decisions are presented in this paper we present results of a field experiment on the contributions to carbon offsetting programs under two alternative treatments for the default option the opt in treatment asked subjects to pay for the policy proposal while the opt out treatment asked subjects if they wanted to be excluded from payment for the policy proposal the results show that the frame of the default option had a significant effect on the amount of money paid for the policy proposal subjects were more likely to accept the policy proposal if the default option was the opt out treatment the results have implications for the design of environmental policies

elasticities of demand and willingness to pay for environmental services in sweden are environmental services luxuriesor necessities are low income groupsrelatively more willing to pay forenvironmental improvements than high incomegroups the discussion on the shape of theenvironmental kuznets curve and environmentaljustice call for analyses that approach thesequestions following a survey based approachfor modelling the demand for public goods thispaper provides estimates of income and priceelasticities of demand for reduced marineeutrophication effects in the case of thebaltic sea using data from five swedishcontingent valuation studies point estimatesindicate that reduced marine eutrophicationeffects can be classified as a necessity and anordinary and price elastic service confidenceintervals show however that the classificationas a necessity is not statisticallysignificant income elasticities of willingnessto pay not to be confused with incomeelasticities of demand are estimated for abroad range of environmental services insweden a basic finding is that income tends toinfluence willingness to pay positively andsignificantly the elasticity estimates are inmost cases greater than zero but less thanunity indicating that the benefits ofenvironmental improvements tend to beregressively distributed in a cost benefitanalysis of a project suggesting environmentalimprovements distributional concerns thereforecall for an introduction of weights or at leasta sensitivity analysis of how weighting wouldchange decisions about the project s socialprofitability

contingent valuation and social choice the contingent valuation method for estimating the existence value of natural resources is examined for psychophysical robustness statistical reliability and economic sensibility extensions of standard models for willingness to pay and suitable econometric techniques for analyzing these models are developed the analysis is applied to a series of experiments on the value of preserving wilderness areas in the western united states the results call into question the reliability of the cv method for estimating existence values

option price estimates for water quality improvements a contingent valuation study for the monongahela river abstract we present the findings from a contingent valuation survey designed to estimate the option price bids for the improved recreation resulting from enhanced water quality in the pennsylvania portion of the monongahela river the findings are based on a survey design that used professional interviewers to conduct personal interviews determined from a representative sample of 393 households in addition the research suggests that protest bids and outliers be viewed similarly accordingly a new technique for identifying outlying responses is proposed the findings suggest that the question format affects the option price estimates and that criteria for determining the final sample of responses can have an important influence on contingent valuation results

growth constraints on small scale manufacturing in developing countries a critical review abstract the question raised in this review is whether small scale producers in developing countries can expand or whether they are up against constraints which stunt their growth most of the literature has been optimistic on this score while internal constraints e g lack of managerial ability or external constraints e g discrimination from government are identified expansion is seen as an open ended process in other contributions this view has been severely criticized some allege that the small producers are exploited through various mechanisms others suggest that their road to expansion is blocked as a result of factors such as the pre existence of very advanced technology the control of large firms over product markets or difficulties in access to raw materials in discussing the arguments put forward in the debate an attempt is made to assess their theoretical bases and examine the extent to which they are supported empirically while most studies express explicitly or implicitly a definite view on the growth potential of small producers such judgement is rarely based on a comprehensive examination of the context which determines this potential

option value an exposition and extension this article examines the role of the discount rate in making decisions that will have significant implications for the environment the authors begin by providing a rationale for discounting in general and by describing the main factors that determine

valuing public goods discrete versus continuous contingent valuation responses independent applications of open ended and dichotomous choice formats are compared using tests of means estimating joint likelihood functions and nonparametric tests of distributions the null hypothesis of no difference in the open ended and dichotomous choice estimates of central tendency cannot be rejected for two out of three data sets while estimated standard deviations are significantly different for all three data sets in addition actual dichotomous choice means and standard deviations exceed those from comparable synthetic dichotomous choice data sets suggesting either open ended questions underestimate values or dichotomous choice bid structures may lead to systematic overestimates

bias in discrete response contingent valuation abstract the empirical literature on discrete response contingent valuation has found that seemingly innocuous changes in the statistical models estimated result in significantly different point estimates of willingness to pay this paper hypothesizes and tests several potential explanations for these results first it investigates and compares the biases inherent in single bounded and double bounded maximum likelihood estimation procedures and examines how they react to various bid designs and sample sizes then it examines the presence and identification of outliers in binary choice data and how these outliers influence estimation finally it presents an alternative approach to addressing the issue of outliers which explicitly acknowledges the possibility of upwardly biased response probabilities

recovery rates default probabilities and the credit cycle in recessions the number of defaulting firms rises on top of this the average amount recovered on the bonds of defaulting firms tends to decrease this paper proposes an econometric model in which this joint time variation in default rates and recovery rate distributions is driven by an unobserved markov chain which we interpret as the credit cycle this model is shown to fit better than models in which this joint time variation is driven by observed macroeconomic variables we use the model to quantitatively assess the importance of allowing for systematic time variation in recovery rates which is often ignored in risk management and pricing models

comparing continuous and discrete contingent valuation questions this paper explores two commonly used methods to elicit an individual s willingness to pay wtp for a public good in contingent valuation studies currently the most preferred method is the take it or leave valuation question or discrete valuation question dvq where the respondent accepts or rejects a suggested cost for the good the traditional method the continuous valuation question cvq simply asks an individual to state his wtp for the suggested change in the provision of a public good like cleaner air we introduce a simple way to compare the results from these two methods we also test the anchoring behavior suggested in the psychological literature on choice under uncertainty the results do not support the anchoring hypothesis but suggest the hypothesis that people perceive the two tested valuation questions differently

construct validity of dichotomous and polychotomous choice contingent valuation questions in this note we conduct construct validity tests for dichotomous choice dc and polychotomous choice pc contingent valuation questions contrary to previous results we find that dc and pc estimates of willingness to pay are theoretically valid convergent valid and similar in terms of statistical precision similar to previous results pc respondents are less sensitive to information than dc respondents we conclude that dc and pc valuation questions are construct valid for this study sequential pc valuation questions could be used in studies where obtaining information about the certainty or intensity of respondent preferences would be useful

inducing incentives to understate and to overstate willingness to pay within the open ended and the dichotomous choice elicitation formats an experimental study the subject of this paper is a laboratory experiment in which nearly 300 students were asked to state their willingness to pay wtp for an actual market good two elicitation methods were used the open ended oe and the dichotomous choice dc formats the results indicate that individuals respond to incentives in the predicted direction further when an individual had an incentive to overstate his true wtp the dc format yielded higher estimates of wtp than the oe format when an individual is subjected to opposite incentives the tests suggest no behavioral differences between the two formats

a multilevel modelling approach to triple bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation the use of dichotomous choice dc questions in the elicitation of willingness to pay wtp in contingent valuation studies is common practice at the present time recent research has shown that double bounded dc questions provide statistically superior results to single bounded questions given an appropriate sampling design this paper uses a relatively new multilevel modelling technique to analyze a triple bounded dc design which in addition includes an initial non monetary question on whether an individual accepts in principle a wtp some unspecified amount the theoretical basis of the multilevel model used is described and some of the possibilities of this potentially powerful and versatile technique are discussed the practical operation of the multilevel model is demonstrated using data from a contingent valuation study conducted in the norfolk broads england an internationally important wetland resource