economies of traffic density in the deregulated airline industry this article estimates a structural model of competition among hub and spoke airlines in order to measure the strength of economies of traffic density on individual route segments we find that economies of density were strong during the sample period fourth quarter 1985 stronger than previous estimates by douglas caves laurits christensen and michael tretheway derived from traditional cost function methods we also find that the airlines competitive behavior was far from collusive in the markets under study markets requiring a connection at a hub airport our structural model also provides plausible estimates of demand elasticities we use our estimates to provide a cost based rationale for the major changes in the structure of the industry following deregulation for example the increase in airport and industry wide concentration and the increase in competition at the city pair market level and to simulate the effects of a merger of airlines that share a hub

housing deep habit model mutual implications of macroeconomics and asset pricing abstract the paper develops a housing deep habit model to explore linkages between macroeconomic decisions and asset pricing of nondurable and housing goods owing to heterogeneous characteristics of housing assets the model sheds insights into the counter cyclical property of housing markups

airport presence as product differentiation there is now widespread recognition that an airline s operation at a given airport greatly affects its competitive position on routes flown out of that airport see m levine 1987 s borenstein 1989 s morrison and c winston 1989 and myself 1989 among many others airlines typically defend any competitive advantage as stemming from the lower costs and better service that are said to be generated by hub and spoke route systems airline critics typically respond that airlines gain market power by dominating individual airports both views are at least plausible huband spoke transportation networks reduce the number of round trips necessary to carry a given number of passengers on a given set of itineraries while increasing the number of passenger miles flown if there are sufficient economies of scale in plane size then the advantages of hubbing can overcome the disadvantage in passenger miles resulting in lower total costs by pooling passengers with different ultimate destinations a hubbed system can also offer more frequent flights than would be economically feasible under a nonstop system it also appears however that airlines gain other advantages from a large presence at an airport incumbent airlines are the major source of financing for many airports and therefore gain a large degree of bureaucratic control over airport operations this control may enable them to block the entry or expansion of rivals airlines with a large presence in a given city also gain advantages from frequent flyer plans and nonlinear travel agent commission schedules see again levine and others if the bureaucratic and marketing advantages of airport presence are sufficient to prevent most attempts at entry then incumbents may gain the ability to exercise traditional market power by restricting output and driving up prices this paper argues that both simple costreducing and naive market power stories are inappropriate for the airline industry i present a model in which consumers are willing to pay a premium for the services of the dominant airline this premium may be related to a number of factors including flight frequency frequent flier miles and travel agent commission overrides this model has the advantage of treating oligopoly product differentiation in an explicit way of treating price as an endogenous variable and of allowing for airport presence to affect both costs and demand

does adversity affect long term financial behaviour evidence from china s rustication programme abstract this paper examines the long term effects of adversity on financial behaviour it draws on the largest forced migration experiment in history china s rustication programme evidence from the chinese twins survey and chinese household income project shows that rusticated individuals behave conservatively with respect to finances over the long term compared with their age eligible but nonrusticated peers they reduce housing consumption and its share of total assets increase savings accumulate more safe assets and invest less in risky assets such patterns are consistent with evidence from manually collected county gazetteer data possible mechanisms include reduced productivity habit formation and psychological changes

the timing and magnitude of retail store markdowns evidence from weekends and holidays we examine daily prices of eight goods at seventeen retail stores collected in ann arbor michigan over a four month period from november 1 to february 28 we focus on weekly and seasonal price patterns and on the frequency of price markdowns or sales there were frequent markdowns in the intensive shopping period prior to christmas and a tendency for such sales to occur on weekends we interpret these findings as evidence that a significant number of markdowns are timed to occur when shopping intensity is exogenously high we complement the imperfect information based motives for sales in the literature by contributing an additional element based on the role of bulk shopping and increasing returns in the shopping technology

estimating markups and market conduct with multidimensional product attributes we demonstrate how to estimate a model of oligopoly pricing when products are multi dimensionally differentiated we provide an empirical counterpart to recent theoretical work on product differentiation using specifications informed by economic theory we estimate price cost margins for products differentiated in many dimensions

localized market power in the u s airline industry this paper tests whether the observed dominance of most city pair markets and airports in the u s domestic airline industry by single carriers confers any pricing power on the dominan t firms the results of fixed effects estimation indicate that airport dominance by a carrier does confer upon it substantial pricing power whereas dominance at the route level seems to confer no such pricing power additionally the authors find a positive yet small correlation between both route concentration and price and airport concentration and price the quantitative importance of airport dominance reveals that the most promising direction for public polic y aimed at improving the industry s performance is to ensure equal acc ess to sunk airport facilities copyright 1993 by mit press

spatial multiproduct pricing empirical evidence on intra european duopoly airline markets this paper estimates a model of spatial multiproduct duopoly pricing when the location patterns differ across markets the theoretical model suggests that the neighbouring configuration yields less competitive nash prices than the interlaced configuration i apply this model to data for intra european duopoly airline markets the empirical results support the theoretical model since i find that fares are higher on intra european markets that exhibit neighbouring configurations in the time domain this result suggests that price competition is reduced when each airline operates on a specific segment of the timetable e g the first 12 hours of the day clearly this result has several implications for policy makers and or airport authorities in charge of awarding slots

the evolution of u s airline competition studies by academic economists were a significant force in the movement towards deregulation of the domestic airline industry in the early 1970s levine 1965 jordan 1970 keeler 1972 douglas and miller 1974 during the critical 1977 78 period in which deregulation was imposed first de facto by the civil aeronautics board cab and then de jure by congress the chairman and vice chairman of the cab were economists for the 14 years since deregulation economists have continued intensive study of the industry in part because of the unusual availability of reliable firm and transaction level data and in part because of the rare opportunity to observe an industry as it evolves from strict economic regulation to fairly unimpeded competition and strategic behavior the simplest prediction of economists about airline deregulation and one of the few on which nearly all economists agreed was that deregulation would improve consumer welfare in comparison to continued price and entry regulation fourteen years later nearly all economists still agree on this though the degree of enthusiasm for the deregulation outcome varies considerably there was substantial disagreement among economists about the market structure that would result because studies of scale economies in the airline industry had concluded that none existed beyond the scale of the smaller major airlines of the 1970s caves 1962 eads et al 1969 many economists argued that deregulation would result in more than the 11 major airlines that existed at the time of deregulation others predicted that only a few or possibly only one airline would survive at a large scale two noted university of chicago economists sam peltzman and lester telser made a bet in 1979 on whether

air travel choices in multi airport markets abstract we study how air travel consumers departing from a multi airport region trade off across airport and airline supply characteristics we empirically investigate this trade off by estimating a weighted conditional logit model of airport airline choice using survey data on travels departing from one of three san francisco bay area airports and arriving at one of four airports in greater los angeles in october 1995 non price characteristics like airport access time airport delay flight frequency the availability of particular airport airline combinations and early arrival times are found to strongly affect choice probabilities we calculate marginal effects and counterfactual scenarios to compare the values of these characteristics among each other and across traveler type in order to examine the robustness of the conditional logit model we estimate a mixed logit model and find that the results are similar we attribute the similarity to our strictly defined travel market and to our distinction between leisure and business travelers thus controlling for two important sources of consumer heterogeneity we consider the implications of our empirical findings on vertical integration between airlines and airports on the effectiveness of airport dominance and on the competitive effect of entry by low cost carriers

the propensity to patent abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between 1974 rd among the exceptions the tendency was toward diminishing returns variables measuring overseas sales federal r d support diversification scope of invention use and invention type had only modest explanatory power there was no significant evidence of disproportionate patent accumulation in the more highly concentrated industries

liberalizing european airlines cost and factor productivity evidence abstract european countries do not all share the same view concerning the benefits of increased competition among airlines in europe to explain this difference in attitudes the paper presents evidence on differences in costs and global factor productivity between the main european national flag carriers the data reveal a clear distinction between the main european and north atlantic routes unit costs per passenger kilometer are lower in north atlantic routes and unit profits are higher in european routes the first result reflects the economies of scale due to higher distances and traffic density on north atlantic routes the second result is an indication of the lower level of competition between airlines in europe finally tornqvist factor productivity growth indexes 1981 1986 show that the initial gap which existed between these productivity measures at the beginning of the period is shrinking this suggests that the european airline industry is currently in a more favorable situation to support more competition

concentration potential entry and performance in the airline industry airline markets do not satisfy the theoretical conditions for perfect contestability and theory does not indicate which deviations from perfect contestibilty significantly affect performance thus the effect of potential entry on performance in airline markets is explored empirically the best model for explaining fares is found to be one in which the measure of market concentration takes into account not only the number and size distribution of incumbents but also the number of potential entrants not significantly disadvantaged due to economies of scale and scope the hypothesis that all city pair markets are perfectly contestable is rejected coauthors are richard l johnson andrew s joskow gregory j werden and michael a williams copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

airline network rivalry in this paper the effects of the strategic interaction between deregulated airlines on their network choice are analyzed the authors examine whether switching from a linear to a hub spoke network confers a strategic advantage because it saves costs and improves service quality they find that if hubbing lowers total cost which includes both airline and passenger inconvenience costs the pursuit of strategic advantages usually intensifies the extent of hubbing even if hubbing raises total cost it might be pursued by the airline either because hubbing is a dominant strategy in an oligopolistic setting or because hubbing will be useful in deterring entry

airline code share alliances and their competitive effects abstract code share alliances have become a prominent feature in the competitive landscape of the airline industry however policy makers are extremely hesitant to approve proposed code share alliances when the potential partners route networks have significant overlap the main concern is that an alliance may facilitate price collusion on partners overlapping routes this article shows how policy makers can use a structural econometric framework to quantify the competitive effects of proposed code share alliances where potential alliance partners compete on overlapping routes in the prealliance industry as an example i apply the econometric model to the delta continental northwest alliance this proposed alliance was initially greeted with skepticism by the u s department of transportation owing to the potential partners unprecedented level of route network overlap for the markets considered in my analyses it appears as though the ultimate approval of the alliance by policy makers was justified

domestic airline alliances and consumer welfare this article investigates the consumer welfare consequences of the recent code share agreement between continental airlines and northwest airlines we develop a discrete choice model based on individual flight characteristics this structural model recognizes that consumers i may have heterogeneous preferences for flight attributes and ii may face different prices for the same flight the empirical methodology also deals with the measurement error problem stemming from the absence of consumer level data on prices the estimation results suggest that whereas the code share agreement did not impact consumers significantly on average it increased the average surplus of connecting passengers but decreased the average surplus of nonstop passengers interestingly the magnitude of our welfare results may be attributed in large part to changes in product characteristics other than prices

estimation of a model of entry in the airline industry this paper considers the effect of an airline s scale of operation at an airport on the profitability of routes flown out of that airport the empirical methodology uses the entry decisions of airlines as indicators of underlying profitability the results extend the empirical literature on airport presence by providing a new set of estimates of the determinants of city pair profitability these estimates imply that city pair profits increase in airport presence and decrease rapidly in the number of entering firms the literature on empirical models of oligopoly entry is also extended via a focus on the role of differences between firms

the cyclical behavior of marginal cost and price the author examines the cyclical behavior of price marginal cost margins for u s manufac turing after 1956 short run marginal cost is markedly procyclical this is primarily due to procyclical overtime payments incurred beca use employment is not perfectly flexible in most industries output price fails to respond to the cyclical movement in marginal cost so price marginal cost margins are markedly countercyclical the res ults contradict business cycle theories that explain low production i n a recession by a high real cost of producing they support theories that explain low production in a recession by the inability of firms to sell their output copyright 1987 by american economic association

tie in sales and price discrimination this paper analyzes a class of contracts between buyers and sellers which specifies that the purchase of one good cannot be effectuated unless a second good is also purchased the economic forces resulting from a tie in are shown to be influenced by factors such as depreciation of the tying good the sales policy of the firm and the discount rate price discrimination the traditional hypothesis for this tie in is seen to make sense only when these factors align themselves in particular ways although an alternative hypothesis risk reduction is unaffected by these factors the price discrimination hypothesis therefore loses much of its appeal relative to the alternative

value of an additional firm in monopolistic competition the paper develops a model of monopolistic competition in which the satisfaction levels consumers get from products are independently and identically distributed potential substitution among products then generates demand curves through the mechanism of order statistics the value of extra variety can be calculated directly pareto lognormal and beta distributions are investigated using numerical integration some but not all cases support the argument that the optimal number of firms exceeds the equilibrium number

pricing and performance in monopoly airline markets since the airline deregulation act of 1978 ada much has been learned about the performance characteristics of airline markets functioning free of governmental control contrary to the initial expectations of many airline markets do not appear to conform well to the contestable markets model numerous empirical studies of the industry have concluded that performance depends on the level of actual competition a result incompatible with perfect contestability 2 in a perfectly contestable

airline mergers airport dominance and market power effects of northwestrepublic and twaozark mergers on fares at minneapolisst paul and st louis

hubs and high fares dominance and market power in the u s airline industry this article estimates the importance of route and airport dominance in determining the degree of market power exercised by an airline the results indicate that an airline s share of passengers on a route and at the endpoint airports significantly influences its ability to mark up price above cost the high markups of a dominant airline however do not create much of an umbrella effect from which carriers with smaller operations in the same markets can benefit the article suggests a number of possible explanations for this asymmetry

capacity and product market competition measuring market power in a puppy dog industry abstract in this paper we specify and estimate a structural model which accounts for competition in two variables capacity and prices the model has a two stage setup in the first stage firms make capacity decisions followed by a product differentiated price setting game in the second stage since costs are endogenized through the first stage this has important implications for the measurement of market power in the product market in particular simpler one stage specifications would result in a bias in the measurement of market power which can be linked to the taxonomy for two stage games given in fudenberg and tirole 1984 fudenberg d tirole j 1984 the fat cat effect the puppy dog ploy and the lean and hungry look american economic review paper and proceedings 74 361 366 we then estimate this model demand cost short and long run and conduct for the european airline industry using data for the period of 1976 1990 we perform a number of specification tests and reject a simple one stage specification in favor of our two stage set up in particular we find that some degree of market power in the product market exists however market conduct in the two stage set up is significantly less collusive than in the more widely employed one stage specification which is consistent with the direction of bias in puppy dog games this illustrates that collusiveness of firms market conduct in the product market is significantly overestimated whenever capacity competition is not accounted for

the dominant firm advantage in multiproduct industries evidence from the u s airlines in many industries the largest firms are most successful in entering and competing in individual markets or submarkets while this success is often attributed to cost or quality differences it may also reflect reputation advantages or marketing strategies that benefit firms selling a wider variety of products in the industry i present an approach to estimating the advantages of a dominant firm in the airline industry that allows one to effectively control for cost and quality heterogeneity results using data from 1986 indicate that an airline with a dominant presence at an airport will have a significant advantage in attracting customers whose trips originate at that airport regardless of the specific route on which the customer is traveling

competition in european aviation pricing policy and market structure the purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of liberal bilateral agreements on some european air routes in terms of price competition and market structure the author proposes a model that explains firms behavior and shows that after the liberalization firms exploit their cost advantages and differentiate their products more but market structure still depends on access to airport facilities and other ancillary services controlled by the flag carriers these results differ from american evidence in that the author finds that the effect of airport presence on prices through lower costs more than offsets the effect through higher perceived quality copyright 1995 by blackwell publishing ltd