explaining agricultural productivity growth an international perspective this article presents multi output multi input total factor productivity tfp growth rates in agriculture for 88 countries over the 1970 2001 period estimated with both stochastic frontier analysis sfa and the more commonly employed data envelopment analysis dea we find results with sfa to be more plausible than with dea and use them to analyze trends across countries and the determinants of tfp growth in developing countries the central finding is that policy and institutional variables including public agricultural expenditure and proagricultural price policy reforms are significant correlates of tfp growth the most significant geographic correlate of tfp growth is distance to the nearest oecd country

trends in time allocation a cross country analysis abstract using detailed time use data for seven industrialized countries from the 1970s until today we document general decreases in men s market work coupled with increases in men s unpaid work and child care and increases in women s paid work and child care coupled with decreases in unpaid work we also find almost universal increases in the time devoted to watching television over this period and uncover a widespread increase in leisure inequality in favor of lower educated adults trends in leisure inequality mirror the general increase in income and earnings inequality experienced in most countries over this period especially after the mid 1980s all these findings are consistent with previous results for the us however in contrast to the increases in leisure found for the us we fail to find common trends in leisure time across countries over the period analyzed

inequality and fractionalization we present evidence that ethnic fragmentation explains variations in per capita income institutions and schooling better than income inequality when both are treated as endogenous to do so we identify instruments for ethnic fractionalization and income inequality based on historical experience using instrumental variables estimation we find that ethnic fractionalization explains the level of income both when income inequality is included as a control in the estimation and when it is not however we find no evidence that income inequality affects the level of income when ethnic fractionalization is properly treated as an endogenous variable we have similar findings when other development outcomes such as schooling or proxies for institutional quality are used as dependent variables these results are robust to various controls and changes in the sample size and suggest that some of the previous findings regarding the effect of income inequality on development should be attributed to ethnic fractionalization

global inequality how large is the effect of top incomes abstract despite the growing interest in global inequality assessing inequality trends is a major challenge because individual data on income or consumption is not often available nevertheless the periodic release of certain summary statistics of the income distribution has become increasingly common hence grouped data in form of income shares have been conventionally used to construct inequality trends based on lower bound approximations of inequality measures this approach introduces two potential sources of measurement error first these estimates are constructed under the assumption of equality of incomes within income shares second the highest income earners are not included in the household surveys from which grouped data is obtained in this paper we propose to deploy a flexible parametric model which addresses these two issues in order to obtain a reliable representation of the income distribution and accurate estimates of inequality measures this methodology is used to estimate the recent evolution of global interpersonal inequality from 1990 to 2015 and to examine the effect of survey under coverage of top incomes on the level and direction of global inequality overall we find that item non response at the top of the distribution substantially biases global inequality estimates but more importantly it might also affect the direction of the trends

democracy volatility and economic development growth stability is an important objective because development requires sustained increases in income because volatility is costly for the poor and because volatility deters growth we study the determinants of average growth and its volatility as a two equation system and find that higher levels of democracy and diversification lower volatility whereas volatility itself reduces growth muslim countries instrument for democracy and measures of diversification identify volatility in contrast to the lack of consensus on the democracy growth relationship the democracy stability link is robust rather than focus on growth this paper forges an alternative link between democracy and development through the volatility channel

democracy and economic growth a meta analysis despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the impact of political democracy on economic growth this article challenges the consensus of an inconclusive relationship through a quantitative assessment of the democracy growth literature it applies meta regression analysis to the population of 483 estimates derived from 84 studies on democracy and growth using traditional meta analysis estimators the bootstrap and fixed and random effects meta regression models it derives several robust conclusions taking all the available published evidence together it concludes that democracy does not have a direct impact on economic growth however democracy has robust significant and positive indirect effects through higher human capital lower inflation lower political instability and higher levels of economic freedom democracies may also be associated with larger governments and less free international trade there also appear to be country and region specific democracy growth effects overall democracy s net effect on the economy does not seem to be detrimental

entrepreneurship and income inequality in southern ethiopia this article uses inequality decomposition techniques in order to analyze the consequences of entrepreneurial activities to household income inequality in southern ethiopia a uniform increase in entrepreneurial income reduces per capita household income inequality this implies that encouraging rural entrepreneurship may be favorable for both income growth and income distribution such policies could be particularly successful if directed at the low income low wealth and relatively uneducated segments of the society

the impact of sovereign rating changes on the activity of european banks abstract we verify the effects of sovereign rating revisions on the activity of european banks in terms of their regulatory capital ratio profitability liquidity and lending supply first we find that a sovereign downgrade has a significant impact primarily on capital ratios and lending supply in contrast upgrades do not have a significant impact indicating an asymmetric effect of sovereign rating changes second we find that three transmission channels assets channel funding channel and rating channel explain a relevant part of the impact of a sovereign downgrade finally we find strong evidence that the rating based regulation affects all measures of the activity of domestic banks causing negative externalities for financial institutions our results hold also controlling for sovereign risk estimating a gmm system and employing an instrumental variable approach

economic growth and poverty reduction measurement issues using income and non income indicators summary this paper first reviews the debate on the definition of pro poor growth and argues that a relative definition has merits when defining the state of pro poor growth while an absolute definition is most suitable when analyzing the rate of pro poor growth the second contribution is to extend the pro poor growth toolbox to non income indicators the analysis applied to bolivia shows that this extension greatly improves our understanding of the distribution of change in non income indicators of the linkages between progress in income and non income dimensions of poverty and on the incidence of progress in non income outcomes along the income distribution

is economic growth good for the poor tracking low incomes using general means in this paper we propose the use of an alternative methodology to track low incomes based on atkinson s 1970 family of equally distributed equivalent income functions which are called general means here we provide a new characterization of general means that justifies their use in this context our method of evaluating the effects of growth on poor incomes is based on a comparison of growth rates for two standards of living the ordinary mean and a bottom sensitive general mean the motivating question is to what extent is growth in the ordinary mean accompanied by growth in the general mean a key indicator in this approach is the growth elasticity of the general mean or the percentage change in the general mean over the percentage change in the usual mean our empirical analysis estimates this growth elasticity for a data set containing 144 household surveys from 20 countries over the last quarter century among other results we find that the growth elasticity of bottom sensitive general means is positive but significantly smaller than one this suggests that the incomes of the poor do not grow one for one with increases in average income

sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities what are the gains from trade title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments caaa established a market for transferable sulfur dioxide so2 emission allowances among electric utilities this market offers firms facing high marginal abatement costs the opportunity to purchase the right to emit so2 from firms with lower costs and this is expected to yield cost savings compared to a command and control approach to environmental regulation this paper uses econometrically estimated marginal abatement cost functions for power plants affected by title iv of the caaa to evaluate the performance of the so2 allowance market specifically we investigate whether the much heralded fall in the cost of abating so2 compared to original estimates can be attributed to allowance trading we demonstrate that for plants that use low sulfur coal to reduce so2 emissions technical change and the fall in prices of low sulfur coal have lowered marginal abatement cost curves by over 50 percent since 1985 the flexibility to take advantage of these chan

growth income inequality and fiscal policy what are the relevant trade offs we develop an endogenous growth model with elastic labor supply in which agents differ in their initial endowments of physical capital in this context the growth rate and the distribution of income are jointly determined we then examine the distributional impact of different ways of financing an investment subsidy policies aimed at increasing the growth rate result in a more unequal distribution of pre tax income consistent with the positive correlation between income inequality and growth observed in the recent empirical literature however there is no conflict between efficiency and equity if inequality is measured in terms of the distribution of welfare

international migration the brain drain and poverty a cross country analysis the aim of the paper is threefold first it empirically investigates the effect of international migration on poverty in origin countries using data from a cross country analysis second it explores the specific part of the income distribution from which migrants are drawn by comparing the effect of international migration on different income quintiles of the population finally given that the selection of migrants depends not only on the income level of their households but also on the skill levels of movers the paper casts some light on the implications of the emigration of skilled workers on poverty this article shows that the stock of international migrants have a positive effect on the income of the poor while it does not have a significant impact on the income of the middle and top quintiles of the population in particular a 10 per cent increase in the per capita stock of migrants resident in oecd nations augments the income of the poor by 1 per cent on average and ceteris paribus finally the poverty reducing effect of migration holds even when the emigration process selects the best and the brightest

ready for capital account convertibility abstract this paper investigates whether the impact of capital account convertibility on the long term volatility of economic growth depends on financial development it estimates a system of three simultaneous equations mean growth volatility of growth and financial development this allows for the study of both the impact of capital account liberalization on volatility as well as its direct impact on financial development results indicate that economies with low financial development fall prey to excess volatility arising from capital account openness while capital account openness itself has a significant positive impact on financial development the results are robust to alternative measures of financial development and volatility and to the removal of outliers

revisiting the effects of imf programs on poverty and inequality investigating how lending programs of the international monetary fund imf affect poverty and inequality we explicitly address model uncertainty we control for endogenous selection into imf programs using data on 86 low and middle income countries for the 1982 2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures the results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short run effects of imf agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample while for a 2000 2009 subsample the results are reversed there is evidence that significant short run effects might disappear in the long run author s abstract

how connected is the global sovereign credit risk network abstract this paper estimates the global network structure of sovereign credit risk by applying the diebold yilmaz connectedness methodology on sovereign credit default swaps scdss the level of credit risk connectedness among sovereigns which is quite high is comparable to the connectedness among stock markets and foreign exchange markets in the aftermath of the recent financial crises that originated in developed countries emerging market countries have played a crucial role in the transmission of sovereign credit risk while developed countries and debt ridden developing countries have played marginal roles secondary regressions show that both trade and capital flows are important determinants of pairwise connectedness across countries the capital flows became increasingly important after 2013 while the effect of trade flows decreased during the crisis and did not recover afterwards

firm profitability regional unemployment and human capital in wage determination this paper presents an analysis of wage formation in the norwegian private sector using data for individual workers matched with firm level information and regional unemployment a key issue is to test whether or not firm specific variables affect individual wages after controlling for individual specific factors and working conditions the results imply positive effects of firm specific profitability and firm size the elasticity of wages with respect to value added per worker and firm size is 5 and 3 3 respectively empirical evidence of a downward sloping regional wage curve is also reported while there is no support of the hypothesis of compensating wage differentials since data for three levels of aggregation are used the ols estimates of the standard errors are downward biased therefore results using a random effects model are also reported taking the multi level structure of the data into account

against the wind bargaining recentralisation and wage inequality in norway 1987 91 in the late 1980s norway s labour market experienced similar supply and demand shifts for skills to other countries but unlike other oecd nations norway s wage setting system became more centralised the pay distribution in norway became more compressed at the bottom from 1987 to 1991 while low wage workers in other countries lost ground relatively using norwegian microdata for 1987 and 1991 i found that changing labour market prices helped cause this wage compression further the less educated had declining relative overall employment but increasing relative public sector employment both possible labour market responses to the wage compression

poverty and the welfare costs of risk associated with globalization summary globalization implies change and uncertainty over future change may affect household welfare we use data on lorenz curves over the last 50 years for a sample of 53 mostly developing countries treating each country quintile year as an observation we first account for variation in consumption expenditures finding that global shocks are of less importance than country level shocks in explaining variation in country quintile consumption growth while poorer households experience more rapid consumption growth than do wealthier households they also bear much more risk however we find no evidence that this greater risk is related to globalization

a malmquist based approach to change in local economic well being murias p novello s and martinez roget f a malmquist based approach to change in local economic well being regional studies the focus on the multifaceted nature of well being has increased substantially in recent years this paper employs data envelopment analysis dea combined with the malmquist index to examine the temporal change in the economic well being of spanish provinces over the ten year period between 1996 and 2006 this method not only allows the aggregation of multiple indicators and the estimation of well being shifts over time but also shows the sources of variation in local economic well being the results seem to suggest that whilst economic well being has improved in the great majority of provinces this advancement stems largely from a more favourable environment than from the specific capacity of each province to reduce its relative distance from key benchmarks

globalization and its challenges rudi was born and grew up in krefeld germany he was an undergraduate at the university of geneva and completed his ph d at the university of chicago in 1971 which is where we met he was a student of robert mundell and both the subject matter the development of the mundell fleming model and the elegance and insights of his early work reflected mundell s influence he taught at the university of rochester and at the university of chicago before accepting an offer from mit in 1975

the impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area cds market abstract this paper analyzes the impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area cds market through the event study technique we demonstrate that downgrades and upgrades considerably affect financial markets the relevance of the impact is due to the introduction of new information after a rating change announcement information discovery effect and to the role of rating in the current financial regulation certification effect conversely the cds market does not seem to react significantly to rating warning outlook and review announcements furthermore we find evidence of a spillover effect only after a downgrade announcement our results show that the size of the spillover effect is influenced by economic and financial conditions of analyzed countries and that international bank flows between emu members represent an important transmission channel of the spillover effect

trade liberalisation and poverty what are the links this paper asks whether a developing country s own trade liberalisation could translate into increased poverty and what information would be required to identify whether it will do so it plots the channels through which such effects might operate identifying the static effects via four broad groups of institutions households distribution channels factor markets and government and the dynamic issues of volatility long term economic growth and short term adjustment stresses an increase in the price of something a household sells labour good service increases its welfare thus the paper first explores the likely effects of trade liberalisation on the prices of goods and services taking into account the distribution sector also critical is whether trade reform creates or destroys markets trade reform is also likely to affects factor prices of which the wages of the unskilled is the most important for poverty purposes if reform boosts the demand for labour intensive products it boosts the demand for labour and wages and or employment will increase however not all developing countries are relatively abundant in unskilled labour and trade can boost demand for semi skilled rather than unskilled labour hence poverty alleviation is not guaranteed trade reform can affect tariff revenue but much less frequently and adversely than is popularly imagined even if it does it is a political decision not a law of nature that the poor should suffer the resulting new taxes or cuts in government expenditure opening up the economy can reduce risk and variability because world markets are usually more stable than domestic ones but sometimes it will increase them because stabilisation schemes are undermined or because residents switch to riskier activities the non poor can generally tide themselves over adjustment shocks from a liberalisation so public policy should focus on whether the initially poor and near temporary setbacks the key to sustained poverty alleviation is economic growth there is little reason to fear that growth will not boost the incomes of the poor similarly while the argument that openness stimulates long run growth has still not been completely proven there is every presumption that it will

nonlinearities in intergenerational earnings mobility consequences for cross country comparisons we show that the patterns of intergenerational earnings mobility in denmark finland and norway unlike those for the us and the uk are highly nonlinear the nordic relationship between log earnings of sons and fathers is flat in the lower segments of the fathers earnings distribution sons growing up in the poorest households have the same adult earnings prospects as sons in moderately poor households and is increasingly positive in middle and upper segments this convex pattern contrasts sharply with our findings for the us and the uk where the relationship is much closer to being linear as a result cross country comparisons of intergenerational earnings elasticities may be misleading with respect to transmission mechanisms in the central parts of the earnings distribution and uninformative in the tails of the distribution it is now a stylised fact that intergenerational earnings mobility is higher in the nordic welfare state economies than in more market oriented economies such as the us see

measuring heterogeneity in the returns to education using an education reform abstract in this paper we explore the impact of a mandatory education reform as well as pre reform availability of schools above the mandatory level on educational attainment and returns to education in norway we contribute to the existing literature by focusing on the heterogeneity of the impact of reforms our results indicate that increased compulsory education from seven to nine years increased the general level of education beyond the compulsory education we also find that the effect of family background on educational attainment was weaker after the reform the average treatment effect on returns to education is surprisingly high for education of intermediate duration this means that increasing the general level of education potentially generates high returns in the form of wages we also find that the effect of treatment on the treated on the returns to education is 1 4 percentage points higher than the average treatment effect

fear connectedness among asset classes this study investigates the interconnection between five implied volatility indices representative of different financial markets during the period 1 august 2008 29 december 2017 to this end we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period the system wide approach using a framework recently proposed by diebold and yilmaz second we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate both the net directional connectedness for each market and all net pairwise directional connectedness our results suggest that a 38 99 of the total variance of the forecast errors is explained by shocks across markets indicating that the remainder 61 01 of the variation is due to idiosyncratic shocks furthermore we find that volatility connectedness varies over time with a surge during periods of increasing economic and financial instability finally we also document frequently switch between a net volatility transmitter and a net volatility receiver role in the five markets under study

spillovers across european sovereign credit markets and role of surprise and uncertainty we identify the network structure of spillovers and time varying spillover intensities across european sovereign credit markets proposing a novel copula granger causality based structural vector au

ecb policy and eurozone fragility was de grauwe right paul de grauwe s eurozone fragility hypothesis states that sovereign debt markets in a monetary union without a lender of last resort are vulnerable to self fulfilling dynamics fuelled by pessimistic investor sentiment that can trigger default we test this contention by applying an eclectic methodology to a two year window around mario draghi s whatever it takes pledge that can be understood as the implicit announcement of the outright monetary transactions omt program a principal components analysis reveals that the perceived commonality in default risk among peripheral and core eurozone sovereigns increased after the announcement an event study reveals significant pre announcement news transmission from spain to italy france belgium and austria that clearly dissipates post announcement country specific regressions of cds spreads on systematic risk factors reveal frequent days of large adverse shocks affecting simultaneously those five eurozone countries but only during the pre announcement period altogether these findings support the fragility hypothesis and endorse the omt program

estimating the returns to schooling a likelihood approach based on normal mixtures published with subsequent amendments in journal of applied econometrics volume 26 issue 4 june july 2011 pages 613 640 john k dagsvik torbjorn haegeland and arvid raknerud http dx doi org 10 1002 jae 1172

declining returns to education in norway comparing estimates across cohorts sectors and over time we examine the role of the norwegian education system in explaining the moderate and stable earnings dispersion in norway estimating earnings equations for 1980 and 1990 we find that returns to education have been remarkably stable in norway also when we compare returns to education across different sectors of the economy our analysis controls for self selection into education by using an instrumental variable technique we estimate separate education earnings profiles for different cohorts to identify the effect on wage premiums of the large changes that have taken place in the norwegian education system the substantially higher level of educational attainment for more recent cohorts does not cet par seem to have a negative effect on educational wage premiums for these younger cohorts jel classification j24 j31 i

finance and income inequality what do the data tell us although there are distinct conjectures about the relationship between finance and income inequality little empirical research compares their explanatory power we examine the relationship between finance and income inequality for 83 countries between 1960 and 1995 because financial develop ment might be endogenous we use instruments from the literature on law finance and growth to control for this our results suggest that in the long run inequality is less when financial development is greater consistent with galor and zeira 1993 and banerjee and newman 1993 although the results also suggest that inequality might increase as financial sector development increases at very low levels of financial sector development as suggested by greenwood and jovanovic 1990 this result is not robust we reject the hypothesis that financial development benefits only the rich our results thus suggest that in addition to improving growth financial development also reduces inequality

cyclical properties of supply side and demand side shocks in oil based commodity markets abstract oil markets profoundly influence world economies through determination of prices of energy and transports using novel methodology devised in frequency domain we study the information transmission mechanisms in oil based commodity markets taking crude oil as a supply side benchmark and heating oil and gasoline as demand side benchmarks we document new stylized facts about cyclical properties of the transmission mechanism generated by volatility shocks with heterogeneous frequency responses our first key finding is that shocks to volatility with response shorter than one week are increasingly important to the transmission mechanism over the studied period second demand side shocks to volatility are becoming increasingly important in creating short run connectedness third the supply side shocks to volatility resonating in both the long run and short run are important sources of connectedness

four scenarios of development and the role of economic policy we ask which economic policies can help a country create the most favourable conditions for development we observe that the dynamics of several development indicators can be grouped into four clusters each cluster corresponding to a different combination of growth and changes in inequality based on this observation we define four different development scenarios and use limited dependent variable regressions to study how structural and policy factors affect a country s probability to achieve the most or the least favourable of these scenarios our results point to a comforting picture through the choice of appropriate policies countries can effectively increase their chances to achieve the most favourable development scenario

did higher inequality impede growth in rural china this paper estimates the relationship between initial village inequality and subsequent household income growth for a large sample of households in rural china using a rich longitudinal survey spanning the years 1987 2002 and controlling for an array of household and village characteristics the paper finds that households located in higher inequality villages experienced significantly lower income growth through the 1990s however local inequality s predictive power and effects are significantly diminished by the end of the sample the paper exploits several advantages of the household level data to explore hypotheses that shed light on the channels by which inequality affects growth biases due to aggregation and heterogeneity of returns to own resources previously suggested as candidate explanations for the relationship are both ruled out instead the evidence points to unobserved village institutions at the time of economic reforms that were associated with household access to higher income activities as the source of the link between inequality and growth the empirical analysis addresses a number of pertinent econometric issues including measurement error and attrition but underscores others that are likely to be intractable for all investigations of the inequality growth relationship

the institutional foundations of inequality and growth abstract after a decade of research the effect of inequality on long run economic growth remains unresolved in part because researchers have treated omitted variable bias as an estimation problem rather than a deeper question of causality in this article we argue that the key omitted variable is the quality of economic institutions using both cross country and panel data specifications we find no direct effect of inequality on growth in the long run rather the protection of property rights simultaneously raises growth rates and reduces income inequality we interpret these findings as evidence that insecure property rights disproportionately disadvantage the poor

inequality income growth and mobility the basic facts during the 1950s and 1960s mean wages in the united states grew rapidly and the dispersion around this growing mean changed very litde starting in the 1970s and continuing into the 1980s and 1990s these patterns were reversed mean wages grew slowly and inequality increased rapidly these changes in labor markets were reflected in changes in the distribution of family income the mean of the distribution of family income did increase after 1973 in spite of the near constancy of mean real wages as family members increased the number of hours they worked however the increase in inequality of wages was mirrored by an increase in the dispersion of family income a large descriptive literature has documented the rise in inequality while a smaller behavioral literature has sought to delineate the causes of this rise these changes in the distribution of family income a fected rates of poverty directly during the 1950s and 1960s temporary increases in poverty during recessions were more than offset by declines in poverty during economic expansions as long as the poor gained along with everyone else fi om the secular growth in the mean one could be confident that poverty rates would ratchet down this is exactly what happened as poverty rates fell from 22 4 percent in 1959 to 11 1 percent in 1973

a household level study of the determinants of incomes and consumption this paper uses micro data to estimate the determinants of household income and to measure how human capital and earnings uncertainty affect consumption we also estimate how home owners react to capital gains on housing and assess whether these gains are treated in the same way as other sources of income using uk micro data we show that estimates of permanent income and of earnings uncertainty have powerful effects on spending we find that precautionary motives may account for a substantial proportion of household saving we also provide estimates of the shape of the earnings profile for various occupational groups and of the returns to education in different professions copyright 1997 by royal economic society

innovation inequality and intellectual property rights we examine whether income inequality explains innovation across countries the mechanism could be twofold first a large middle class could have an impact on institutions including intellectual property rights iprs which could in turn affect innovation second evidence from us economic history suggests direct linkages between middle class share and innovation via supply and demand effects using ive to address endogeneity we find that middle class share explains patterns of resident patenting while non resident patenting is driven more by exogenous factors and global integration our results illustrate an additional channel through which income inequality can impact long run growth

semiparametric bayesian inference of the kuznets hypothesis abstract in contrast to the parametric quadratic specification used for examining the kuznets hypothesis this study relies on the semiparametric bayesian inference of the partially linear regression to re assess the validity of an inverted u shape of the kuznets curve the simple framework permits us to perform estimation and model comparison in a unified way empirical results using cross sectional data on 75 countries indicate that there exists an approximately inverted hence asymmetric relation between inequality and per capita gdp moreover judged by the bayes factor overwhelming evidence is found in favor of our semiparametric specification finally robustness check using alternative measure of inequality and pool data confirms our findings

asymmetric volatility spillovers between uk regional worker flows and vacancies this paper investigates volatility spillovers between uk regional job finding job separation and vacancy rates employing a large bayesian logistic smooth transition vector autoregression var model we find high volatility spillovers between uk regional labour markets analyses of net spillovers show that in general shocks to job separation rates tend to spread into job finding and vacancy rates while vacancy rates are usually at the receiving end of shocks transmitted from the job separations and job findings to shed further light on the shock propagation mechanism we also look into more detailed matters such as the differences in spillovers between regions within the same regime and that of the same region but in different regimes

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

when is growth pro poor evidence from a panel of countries abstract growth is pro poor if the poverty measure of interest falls according to this definition there are three potential sources of pro poor growth a a high growth rate of average incomes b a high sensitivity of poverty to growth in average incomes and c a poverty reducing pattern of growth in relative incomes i empirically decompose changes in poverty in a sample of developing countries during the 1980s and 1990s into these three components in the medium to long run most of the variation in changes in poverty can be attributed to growth in average incomes suggesting that policies and institutions that promote broad based growth should be central to the pro poor growth agenda most of the remainder of the variation in changes in poverty is due to poverty reducing patterns of growth in relative incomes rather than differences in the sensitivity of poverty to growth in average incomes cross country evidence provides relatively little guidance as to the policies and institutions that promote these other sources of pro poor growth

the influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions abstract this paper assesses contagion and competition as alternative types of stock market spillovers arising from sovereign rating actions our research design is based on the premise that the type of spillover effects within and between groups of countries will be influenced by the sovereign rating level split ratings and the extent of rating convergence i e specific types of rating action will induce different and or stronger effects the results reveal a clear pattern whereby downgrades of high rated countries induce contagion to both high and low rated countries while downgrades of low rated countries reveal the opposite i e they induce competitive effects split ratings are found to intensify stock market spillover effects rating convergence divergence across similarly rated sovereigns has a meaningful influence on the spillover effects for the downgrades of high rated countries rating convergence mitigates the contagion effect to other high rated countries in the region but has very limited effect on the contagion to low rated countries for downgrades of low rated countries rating convergence strengthens the competitive effect on other low rated countries but has little effect on the competitive impact on high rated countries

the dynamics of spillover effects during the european sovereign debt turmoil abstract in this paper we modify and extend the framework of diebold and yilmaz 2011 to quantify spillovers between sovereign credit markets and banks in the euro area spillovers are estimated recursively from a vector autoregressive model of daily changes in credit default swap cds spreads with exogenous common factors we account for interdependencies between sovereign and bank cds spreads and derive generalized impulse response functions specifically we assess the systemic effect of an unexpected shock to the creditworthiness of a sovereign or country specific bank index on other sovereigns and bank cdss between october 2009 and july 2012 channels of shock transmission from or to sovereigns and banks are summarized in a contagion index and its four components i among sovereigns ii among banks iii from sovereigns to banks and iv from banks to sovereigns we also highlight the impact of policy related events on the contagion index

looking beyond averages in the trade and poverty debate there has been much debate about how much poor people in developing countries gain from trade openness as one aspect of globalization the paper views the issue through both macro and micro empirical lenses the macro lens uses cross country comparisons and aggregate time series data the micro lens uses household level data combined with structural modeling of the impacts of specific trade reforms case studies are presented for china and morocco both the macro and micro approaches cast doubt on some widely heard generalizations from both sides of the globalization debate additionally the micro lens indicates considerable heterogeneity in the welfare impacts of trade openness with both gainers and losers among the poor a number of covariates of the individual gains are identified the results point to the importance of combining trade reforms with well designed social protection policies

is corruption really bad for inequality evidence from latin america this article presents new evidence on the relationship between corruption and income inequality using a panel data methodology we find that lower corruption is associated with higher income inequality in latin america this result is in contrast to other empirical studies but it makes sense in latin america for a number of reasons the finding of an inverse relationship between inequality and corruption suggests that institutional reform policies by themselves may be misguided

is the international propagation of financial shocks non linear evidence from the erm abstract this paper tests for the presence of non linearities in the propagation of devaluation expectations among the countries that were members of the exchange rate mechanism of the ems we show that whenever it is possible to estimate a model for financial interdependence a full information technique to detect such non linearities is more efficient than the limited information estimator proposed in a similar context by rigobon 2000 this happens in particular when the periods of market turbulence are relatively short our evidence suggests that non linearities in the propagation of devaluation expectations were a general phenomenon in the erm normally the non linearity amounts to a stronger effect in the same direction but sometimes as in the dutch case it implies a significant effect in the opposite direction evidence of flight to quality

is globalization reducing absolute poverty summary using data from 114 countries 1983 2007 we examine the relationship between globalization and world bank absolute poverty estimates we find a significant negative correlation between globalization and poverty robust to several econometric specifications including a fixed effect panel a long run first difference and a pooled ols regression introducing two instruments for globalization we also show that results are robust to correction for potential endogeneity we motivate and test the instruments in several ways in particular information flows and more liberal trade restrictions robustly correlate with lower absolute poverty

causes and consequences of lexicographic choices in stated choice studies abstract stated choice sc methods and other choice experiments are now becoming increasingly popular for the valuation of environmental goods this paper shows that lexicographic choices lcs in an sc task or other types of choice experiments do not imply that the respondent has lexicographic preferences lcs may be a result of i study designs where differences between the alternatives are too great and ii simplification of the choice task a traditional approach that investigates motives for lexicographic choices mainly as a result of lexicographic preferences may therefore fail to reveal the whole motive range study designs that cause lcs whether such choices actually are based on non compensatory choices i e genuine lexicographic preferences or strategic behaviour or compensatory choices provide less information about preferences however providing they are not totally dominant such choices are not normally a serious modeling problem it is argued that simplification is a consequence of respondents differing abilities to choose such lcs contribute to the larger variances of sc data relative to less cognitively demanding valuation methods and might therefore have a significant impact on the implied valuation of non market goods if they are not handled in the analysis in data collection we should use survey designs that collect more signals and less noise and in data analysis we should use models that can separate signals from noise however there is obviously a limit to the amount of noise which can be separated from signals in a model and therefore how much noise such models can tolerate and still produce useful valuation estimates for the goods under consideration for further investigation of such limits a direct test procedure that can investigate whether each respondent has completed the task in a compensatory manner like the one presented in the current study is valuable

a note on pro poor growth this paper proposes a poverty growth curve that measures whether economic growth is pro poor or not propoor our methodology is developed based on atkinson s theorem linking the generalized lorenz curve and changes in poverty this methodology is applied to both thailand s unit record household surveys and international cross country data empirical study illustrates that our approach to measuring pro poor growth provides conclusive results in the majority of cases d 2004 elsevier b v all rights reserved

measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers with application to global equity markets we provide a simple and intuitive measure of interdependence of asset returns and or volatilities in particular we formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers our framework facilitates study of both non crisis and crisis episodes including trends and bursts in spillovers and both turn out to be empirically important in particular in an analysis of sixteen global equity markets from the early 1990s to the present we find striking evidence of divergent behavior in the dynamics of return spillovers vs volatility spillovers return spillovers display a gently increasing trend but no bursts whereas volatility spillovers display no trend but clear bursts

dynamic poverty decomposition analysis an application to the philippines summary in this paper we propose a new method of poverty decomposition our method remedies the shortcomings of existing methods and has some desirable properties such as time reversion consistency and subperiod additivity our decomposition integrates the existing methods of growth redistribution decomposition and sector based decomposition because it allows us to decompose the change in poverty into growth and redistribution components for each group e g regions or sectors in the economy our decomposition works well in cases where only partial data are available for some periods it is also flexible and can be extended to have the following six components population shift within region redistribution between region redistribution nominal growth inflation and methodological change components the empirical application of the six way decomposition to the philippines for the period 1985 2009 shows that important policies for poverty reduction may differ across regions for example the autonomous region in muslim mindanao would need growth enhancing policies whereas eastern visayas would need policies to improve the income distribution our decomposition method has a wide applicability and may complement the poverty profile approach

global estimates of pro poor growth summary the main objective of the present paper is to present a cross country analysis of pro poor growth in 80 countries in 237 growth spells during the period 1984 2001 to achieve this objective the paper proposes a new measure of pro poor growth that captures gains and losses of growth rates due to changes in the distribution of consumption the gains imply pro poor growth while the losses imply anti poor growth the statistical test carried out in the paper shows that regional location of countries has a significant association with the pro poorness of growth the paper also attempts to test for the association between growth patterns and certain variables that the literature has identified as significant determinants of growth and inequality out of many variables the paper focuses on four namely inflation the share of agriculture in gdp openness to trade and the rule of law

measuring unfair in equality abstract this paper shows one way of generalizing the standard framework of inequality measurement to allow for a distinction between fair and unfair inequalities we introduce the unfairness lorenz curve and the unfairness gini which are generalizations of the standard versions of the lorenz curve and the gini with this more general framework in place we study the implications of responsibility sensitive theories of justice for the evaluation of the income distribution in norway from 1986 to 2005 we find that both the pre tax and the post tax income distributions have become less fair in norway even though the standard gini for the pre tax income distribution has decreased in the same period two trends explain this development the increase in income share of the top percentile and the change in the situation of females in the labor market the concentration of income at the top of the distribution contributes both to increased unfairness and increased inequality whereas the increase in females working hours and level of education primarily contributes to a reduction in inequality thus the latter effect dominates for the standard gini and the former effect for the unfairness gini furthermore we find that the increase in post tax unfairness is even larger than the increase in pre tax unfairness which shows that the tax system in norway contributes less to eliminating unfairness in 2005 than in 1986

growth and inequality revisited the role of primary distribution of income a new approach for understanding today s economic and social crises this paper presents an innovative interpretative scheme of the relationship between economic growth and income inequality taking the primary distribution of income between profits and wages as the main explanatory variable for that purpose two lines of research are taken as a reference point first the bhaduri marglin model which explains growth in terms of the effect that factor shares have on aggregate demand and second recent empirical analyses that also use the functional distribution to explain the evolution of the top income shares and the gini index after reviewing the literature on the growth inequality relationship the paper identifies several relationships between primary and interpersonal distributions of income in each of the bhaduri marglin model s growth regimes it finds multiple causal relationships between growth and inequality as well as inequality and growth clarifying their implications for economic and social stability the paper offers final reflections on the way the scheme can further the understanding of current economic and social crises

does financial development contribute to poverty reduction the article examines the contribution of financial development to poverty reduction in developing countries building on earlier research which has established links between financial development and economic growth and between economic growth and poverty reduction the article tests for a causal process linking financial sector growth and poverty reduction the empirical results indicate that up to a threshold level of economic development financial sector growth contributes to poverty reduction through the growth enhancing effect the impact of financial development on poverty reduction will be affected however by any change in income inequality resulting from financial development

cohort effects and the returns to education in west germany using a mincer type wage function we estimate cohort effects in the returns to education for west german workers born between 1925 and 1974 the main problem to be tackled in the specification is to separately identify cohort experience and possibly also age effects in the returns for women we find a large and robust decline in schooling premia in the private sector the returns to a further year of post compulsory education fell from twelve per cent for the 1945 49 cohort to about seven per cent for those born in the early 1970s cohort effects in men s returns to education are less obvious but we do find evidence that they too have declined we conclude by identifying possible reasons for the decline

is there a trade off between income inequality and corruption evidence from latin america abstract in contrast to other research lower corruption is associated with higher income inequality this result is consistent with the idea that the corruption inequality relationship may be different where there is a large informal sector as in latin america

inequality and economic growth the empirical relationship reconsidered in the light of comparable data all of the recent empirical work on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth has used inequality data that are not consistently measured this paper argues that this is inappropriate and shows that the significant negative correlation often found between income inequality and growth across countries is not robust when income inequality is measured in a consistent manner using data from the world income inequality database however evidence is found of a significant negative correlation between consistently measured inequality of expenditure data and economic growth for a sample of developing countries

joint determinations of inequality and growth abstract this paper jointly estimates the effect of inequality on growth and the impact of growth on inequality vis a simultaneous equations model results show that higher inequality is detrimental to growth whereas faster growth worsens the extent of income distribution

oil nontax revenue and the redistributional foundations of regime stability nontax revenues make up a substantial amount of government revenue around the world though scholars usually focus on individual sources of such revenue for example foreign aid and state owned oil companies using a theory of regime change that builds on recent models of the redistributional foundations of dictatorships and democracies i generate hypotheses regarding all nontax revenue and regime stability i argue that an increase in nontax revenue should be associated with less taxation of elites in democracies more social spending in dictatorships and more stability for both regime types i find support for all three of these hypotheses in a cross sectional time series analysis covering all countries and years for which the necessary data are available significantly i show that the particular source of nontax revenue does not make a difference they all act similarly with regard to regime stability and the causal mechanisms

a new measure of trade openness trade openness popularly measured as x m gdp in the hundreds of studies published to date consistently considers the world s biggest trading countries such as the usa the uk japan and germany to be closed economies irrespective of the data set used this study suggests a composite trade share measure that more completely reflects reality by combining two important dimensions of trade openness trade share and the relative importance of a country s trade level to total world trade robustness tests support the new proposed measure in lieu of the conventional measure of openness and suggest that the latter may not only be incomplete but may also overstate the impact of trade on such things as income and the environment

korea s growth driven trade policies inclusive or exclusive we attempted to find whether the korea s growth driven trade policies during the period of its industrialisation has contributed to output growth together with income distribution by qualitatively analysing the performance of trade policies interacting with the multilateral trading system over time in addition we conducted a regression analysis to investigate the effect of korea s trade growth on inclusive growth during its industrialisation period covering the period of 1976 2011 we found that the recent reform policies reported in the wto s trade policy review for korea in 2016 have attempted to achieve more balanced distribution of gains from trade but not enough to lead the korean economy to a well balanced welfare state more specifically we found the positive effects of international trade on inclusive growth driven by strong output growth effect not by the effect on income distribution even though income distribution measured by gini indices has been worsened after the east asian financial crisis we could not find significant evidence that korea s rapid international trade growth has been responsible for the deteriorating income inequality

what can new survey data tell us about recent changes in distribution and poverty it has been claimed that in recent times the poor have lost ground both relatively and absolutely even when average levels of living have risen this article tests that claim using household surveys for 67 developing and transitional economies over 1981 94 it finds that changes in inequality and polarization were uncorrelated with changes in average living standards distribution improved as often as it worsened in growing economies and negative growth was often more detrimental to distribution than positive growth overall there was a small decrease in absolute poverty although with diverse experiences across regions and countries almost always poverty fell with growth in average living standards and rose with contraction

smallholder livelihood adaptation in the context of neoliberal policy reforms a case of maize farmers in southern veracruz mexico governments around the world have embraced trade liberalisation as a means of enhancing efficiency to realise economic growth and alleviate poverty likewise the mexican government implemented neoliberal policy reforms the nafta in particular to stimulate sustainable development using the mexican maize sector as illustration this article describes the adaptation process of smallholders to market changes shaped by these reforms going beyond the aggregated level we have investigated smallholders livelihood strategies contrary to what economic models estimated our data suggests that farmers intensified the cultivation of maize rather than switch to sectors in which mexico has a comparative advantage

the kuznets process and the inequality development relationship abstract in his classic paper on economic growth and income inequality kuznets discussed the process of population shift from traditional to modern activities as the basis for a theory of distributional change during the course of development in this paper we present a formalization of the kuznets process conduct a general analysis of distributional change under this process and derive the functional forms of and conditions for a turning point in the inequality development relationship for six commonly used indices of inequality the functional form appropriate to each index is then estimated using cross section data on 60 developing and developed countries finally some extensions to the initial formalization of the kuznets process are considered

does government spending affect income poverty a meta regression analysis summary this paper presents the results of a meta regression analysis of the relationship between government spending and income poverty with a focus on low and middle income countries through a comprehensive search and screening process we identify a total of 19 cross country econometric studies containing 169 estimates of this relationship we find that the size and direction of the estimated relationship are affected by a range of factors most notably the composition of the sample used for estimation the control variables included in the regression model and the type of government spending overall we find no clear evidence that higher government spending has played a significant role in reducing income poverty in low and middle income countries this is consistent with the view that fiscal policy plays a much more limited redistributive role in developing countries in comparison with oecd countries in addition we find that the relationship between government spending and poverty is on average less negative for countries in sub saharan africa and more negative for countries in eastern europe and central asia compared to other regions we also find that the relationship is less negative for government consumption spending in comparison with other sectors finally we find some evidence indicating the possibility of publication bias

income distribution development and foreign trade a cross sectional analysis abstract this paper analyses cross sectional evidence on income inequality in developing countries within a consistent theoretical framework where the major explanatory variables are factor endowments their ownership structure and foreign trade distortions the resulting explanation of cross country differences in income distribution is considerably better than what is found in the existing literature endowments in mineral resources land concentration in agricultural exports trade protection and secondary schooling are shown to be major determinants of differences in income inequality across developing countries

eurozone sovereign contagion evidence from the cds market 2005 2010 abstract this paper analyses the dynamics of the credit default swap cds market of piigs france germany and the uk for the period of 2005 2010 the study is performed on the basis of the datastream and dtcc data on cds spreads and the bis data on cross border exposures the analysis of the data shows that sovereign risk mainly concentrates in the eu countries the ewma correlation analysis and the granger causality test demonstrate that there was contagion effect since correlations and cross county interdependencies increased already after august 2007 furthermore the irf analysis shows that among piigs the cds markets of spain and ireland have the biggest impact on the european cds market whereas the cds market of the uk does not cause a big distress in the eurozone the adjusted correlation analysis confirms that greece and other piigs even spain and italy have lower capacity to trigger contagion than core eu countries besides portugal is the most vulnerable country in the sample whereas the uk is the most immune to shocks

on the measurement of poverty official statistics in the united states and the united kingdom show a rise in poverty between the 1970 s and the 1980 s but scepticism has been expressed with regard to these findings in particular the methods employed in the measurement of poverty have been the subject of criticism this paper re examines three basic issues in measuring poverty the choice of the poverty line the index of poverty and the relation between poverty and inequality one general theme running through the paper is that there is a diversity of judgments which enter the measurement of poverty and that it is necessary to recognize these explicitly in the procedures adopted there is likely to be disagreement about the choice of poverty line affecting both its level and its structure in this situation we may only be able to make comparisons and not to measure differences and the comparisons may lead only to a partial rather than a complete ordering the first section of the paper discusses the stochastic dominance conditions which allow such comparisons illustrating their application by reference to data for the united states the choice of poverty measure has been the subject of an extensive literature and a variety of measures have been proposed in the second section of the paper a different approach is suggested considering a class of measures satisfying certain general properties and seeking conditions under which all members of the class which includes many of those proposed give the same ranking those sceptical about measures of poverty often assert that poverty and inequality are being confounded the third section of the paper distinguishes four different viewpoints and relates them to theories of justice and views of social welfare

the personal and the factor distributions of income in a cross section of countries abstract the shares of capital and labour in national income vary substantially both over time and across countries this paper shows that the factor distribution of income is an essential determinant of the personal distribution of income we use cross country and panel data for a group of developed and developing countries to show that a larger labour share is associated with a lower gini coefficient of personal incomes this effect is not only statistically significant but also economically important an increase in the labour share in mexico to that observed in the us would reduce the gini coefficient of the former by between two and five points

welfare impacts of china s accession to the world trade organization data from china s national rural and urban household surveys are used to measure and explain the welfare impacts of changes in goods and factor prices attributable to accession to the world trade organization wto the price changes are estimated separately using a general equilibrium model to capture both direct and indirect effects of the initial tariff changes the welfare impacts are first order approximations based on a household model incorporating own production activities calibrated to household level data and imposing minimum aggregation the results show negligible impacts on inequality and poverty in the aggregate however diverse impacts emerge across household types and regions associated with heterogeneity in consumption behavior and income sources with possible implications for compensatory policy responses

the simultaneous evolution of growth and inequality research on inequality and growth can be divided into two strands one deriving from kuznets and lewis has tried to identify a mechanistic relationship between growth or level of income and inequality the other has tried to find causal explanations of growth and inequality treating each independently in this paper we draw from both strands to test whether growth and inequality are the joint outcomes of other variables and processes we find that simultaneous examination of growth and inequality yields significantly different results and has different consequences for policy from previous independent studies the empirical literature on growth and inequality can be divided into two broad strands one following the pioneering work of kuznets and lewis is motivated by the pessimistic conjecture that the process of growth and development somehow requires increasing inequality at least in the early stages this has led to many efforts to identify a mechanical relationship between the level of development and inequality anand and kanbur 1993 or to determine whether faster growth requires higher or lower inequality the second strand has sought to identify the causal factors influencing the evolution of growth and inequality independently this research has looked either at growth for example barro and sala i martin 1995 or at inequality li et al 1997 but has not tried to identify those factors that might simultaneously influence both growth and inequality 2 thus the literature that looks simultaneously at growth and inequality descending most notably from kuznets 1955 relates them in a mechanistic manner that ignores or minimises the role of other causal factors including policy while the literature that incorporates other causal factors including policies looks independently at growth and inequality neither approach is particularly convincing from a theoretical standpoint the evolution of growth and inequality must surely be the outcome of similar processes in addition neither approach is particularly useful for the policy maker who needs to balance the impact of policies on both growth and distribution in this paper we investigate whether growth and inequality are simultaneously determined and if so whether or not they are subject to

explaining international and intertemporal variations in income inequality this paper explores the propositions that income inequality is relatively stable within countries and that it varies significantly among countries a new and expanded data set provides broad support for both propositions drawing on a political economy and capital market imperfection arguments to explain the intertemporal and international variation in inequality the empirical analysis shows that the predicted variables associated with the first argument a measure of civil liberties and the initial level of secondary schooling and the second argument a measure of financial depth and the initial distribution of land are indeed important determinants of inequality this paper explores two propositions regarding income inequality they are first income inequality is relatively stable within countries and second it varies significantly across countries to illustrate note that the gini coefficient in india remained almost constant for forty years 1951 92 with mean 32 6 and standard deviation 2 0 2 in contrast the variation in gini coefficients across countries is large 61 9 in honduras in 1968 compared with 17 8 in bulgaria in 1976 if substantiated these propositions have potentially significant implications for poverty the significance of the first is obvious barring any fundamental socio political change poverty reduction will depend crucially on the rate of economic growth given this the significance of the second is that in inegalitarian economies the poor will enjoy a smaller share of any national increment in income than in more egalitarian ones drawing on a new and expanded data set on inequality deininger and squire 1996a the first of the paper s three sections conducts standard statistical tests of the two propositions the sample comprises 573 observations on the most common measure of inequality the gini coefficient for 49 developed and developing countries covering the period 1947 94 the results broadly confirm our two propositions specifically analysis of variance anova shows that about 90 of the total variance in the gini coefficients

financial development financial structure and income inequality in china using panel data of 23 provinces during the period 1996 2012 this paper investigates the impacts of financial development and structure on income inequality in different administrative districts urban rural and overall in china the results produced by the dynamic generalised method of moments estimator provide some evidence for a linear and inverse u shape relationship between financial development and income inequality and increasing the relative importance of financial markets to banks helps to reduce income inequality furthermore the results of panel threshold regressions show that the benefits of financial development only occur if the stock market activity has reached a threshold level and disappear if the stock market capitalisation has reached a certain scale meanwhile the impact of the financial structure weakens as the financial development expands and the proportion of financial markets increases we also find that the impacts of financial development and structure on rural income inequality are stronger than those on urban income inequality

volatility spillovers and connectedness among credit default swap sector indexes this article studies volatility spill over effects and market connectedness using daily data of credit default swap spreads for u s companies over a period from 2007 to 2012 we quantify volatilit