analysis of evolutionary game in structural formation of market power in remanufacturing supply chains it is normal for enterprises to engage in remanufacturing nowadays nevertheless the concern of enterprises and researchers is whether remanufacturers should compete for leadership in supply chain

analysing remanufacturing decisions of supply chain members in uncertainty of consumer preferences abstractthis article formulates a gaming model of the closed loop supply chain with manufacturers as the leader sellers and consumers where consumers may or may not be willing to pay remunerative price for remanufactured products vis a vis new products in the model manufacturers produce new as well as remanufactured products whereas sellers distribute them in stable circumstances this article presents the functional formula of the optimal manufacturing pricing decisions the results show that when the cost of new products is significantly lower than that of remanufactured ones manufacturers choose to produce new products only when the difference between cost of new and remanufactured products is moderate manufacturers tend to produce both new and remanufactured products and in some regions production of new and remanufactured products is proportional to each other when the difference between cost of new and remanufactured products is enormous their production and sale tend to stop also th

remanufacturing as a marketing strategy the profitability of remanufacturing systems for different cost technology and logistics structures has been extensively investigated in the literature we provide an alternative and somewhat complementary approach that considers demand related issues such as the existence of green segments original equipment manufacturer competition and product life cycle effects the profitability of a remanufacturing system strongly depends on these issues as well as on their interactions for a monopolist we show that there exist thresholds on the remanufacturing cost savings the green segment size market growth rate and consumer valuations for the remanufactured products above which remanufacturing is profitable more important we show that under competition remanufacturing can become an effective marketing strategy which allows the manufacturer to defend its market share via price discrimination

everyone s a winner the market impact of technologically advantaged agents using betting data we show that a market with agents having heterogeneous utility can include a net transfer of wealth to technologically advantaged agents taas from non taas with the transaction proving beneficial to both in terms of their realized utility

how do prior gains and losses affect subsequent risk taking new evidence from individual level horse race bets many empirical studies focusing on how prior outcomes affect subsequent risk taking report conclusions that appear mutually contradictory while some studies document increased risk taking after gains and risk aversion after losses others report the opposite this paper contributes to this literature by investigating horse race bettors sequential risky decisions using individual level data a horse race betting market is a laboratory like environment and can be used to analyze behavioral patterns associated with decision making under risk we find evidence for i the house money effect as bettors take riskier wagers after gains and mostly spend the money they have won ii risk aversion after prior losses which we label a playing safe effect and iii a preference for breakeven contrary to the widely held conception in the empirical literature our findings suggest that the break even effect does not necessarily imply an increased preference for riskier bets because bettors may seek to break

the ordinal efficiency of betting markets an exploded logit approach this article offers a new perspective on efficiency in betting markets by examining the degree to which finishing order in horse races corresponds to probabilities inherent in odds across different categories of horse race the application of an exploded logit procedure reveals a significantly greater degree of ordinal efficiency in higher relative to lower class races explanations for the phenomenon include differences in prize related incentives cross market distinctions in information markets and differential opportunity incentive for market manipulation

sequential parimutuel games abstract in a parimutuel betting system a successful player s return depends on the number of other players who choose the same action this paper examines a general solution for two action sequential parimutuel games and shows how the unique equilibrium of such games leads to a simple pattern of behavior in particular we show that there is an advantage to being an early mover that early players might choose actions with an ex ante low probability of success and that player action choices can flip with small changes in the parameters of the game

betting bias in exotic bets abstract the evidence from racetrack betting is that the subjective probabilities to win expressed through the public s bets are good approximations to the objective probabilities on the whole but that a betting bias exists in that favorites are underbet and long shots overbet we examine these questions for exactas and trifectas which the aid of a new database the approximation of subjective to objective probabilities is good for exactas and no betting bias is evident for trifectas the findings are more ambiguous and suggest that a taste for long shots or a misperception of true probabilities may play a role

searching for positive returns at the track a multinomial logic model for handicapping horse races this paper investigates fundamental investment strategies to detect and exploit the public s systematic errors in horse race wager markets a handicapping model is developed and applied to win betting in the pari mutuel system a multinomial logit model of the horse racing process is posited and estimated on a data base of 200 races a recently developed procedure for exploiting the information content of rank ordered choice sets is employed to obtain more efficient parameter estimates the variables in this discrete choice probability model include horse and jockey characteristics plus several race specific features hold out sampling procedures are employed to evaluate wagering strategies a wagering strategy that involves unobtrusive bets with a side constraint eliminating long shot betting appears to offer the promise of positive expected returns even in the presence of the typically large track take encountered at thoroughbred racing events

efficiency of the market for racetrack betting many racetrack bettors have systems since the track is a market similar in many ways to the stock market one would expect that the basic strategies would be either fundamental or technical in nature fundamental strategies utilize past data available from racing forms special sources etc to handicap races the investor then wagers on one or more horses whose probability of winning exceeds that determined by the odds by an amount sufficient to overcome the track take technical systems require less information and only utilize current betting data they attempt to find inefficiencies in the market and bet on such overlays when they have positive expected value previous studies and our data confirm that for win bets these inefficiencies which exist for underbet favorites and overbet longshots are not sufficiently great to result in positive profits this paper describes a technical system for place and show betting for which it appears to be possible to make substantial positive profits and thus to demonstrate market inefficiency in a weak form sense estimated theoretical probabilities of all possible finishes are compared with the actual amounts bet to determine profitable betting situations since the amount bet influences the odds and theory suggests that to maximize long run growth a logarithmic utility function is appropriate the resulting model is a nonlinear program side calculations generally reduce the number of possible bets in any one race to three or less hence the actual optimization is quite simple the system was tested on data from santa anita and exhibition park using exact and approximate solutions that make the system operational at the track given the limited time available for placing bets and found to produce substantial positive profits a model is developed to demonstrate that the profits are not due to chance but rather to proper identification of market inefficiencies

antidumping investigations and the pass through of antidumping duties and exchange rates comment well in excess of 100 percent based on their understanding of the us antidumping calculation however the hypothesis is based on an incorrect understanding of the antidumping calculation under us law when corrected for this error the hypothesis would lead to a prediction of simple 100 percent pass through at most dumping refers to selling a product in an export market at less than its normal value a benchmark that is most commonly based on sales in the domestic market of the same product antidumping laws set tariffs to offset the amount of dumping the excess of normal value over export price in us practice a dumping complaint is brought on behalf of an industry against rival imports with the cases defined by product and by country a successful case results in the potential imposition of antidumping duties over and above any normal tariffs an unsuccessful case results in no duties being imposed american antidumping law and practice have the somewhat unusual characteristic that anti dumping duties are estimated and used to set duty deposits for a forward looking period in an initial investigation then are recalculated and actually assessed for the same period now back ward looking in a later review with some variation the later review is typically completed about two years after the initial investigation the review sets a new deposit rate and a second review determines the actual assessment rate retrospectively this can be repeated indefinitely the ini tial duty estimate resulting in a deposit rate allows companies to modify their pricing behavior so as to affect the actual dumping duties that are later assessed blonigen and haynes exploit this characteristic of the us administration of its antidump ing law to examine the effects of the imposition of antidumping duties on the pass through to us pricing the dumping investigation and resulting deposit rate provide information that the company can use in its subsequent sales in order to reduce or eliminate its dumping liability in the eventual review by comparing the antidumping deposit rates with eventual us pricing the degree of pass through of antidumping deposits can be estimated and the effects on exchange rate pass through of a potential antidumping dumping duty can be studied here i focus on the factual underpinnings that lead to blonigen and haynes s pricing model rather than the empirical results that model predicts that the method by which the us department of commerce usdoc calculates ad duties will lead to pass through of estimated antidump ing duties at twice the level of those estimated duties if companies wish to eliminate the eventual dumping duties by studying the outcomes of a series of ad cases concerning steel from canada they conclude that pass through of estimated duties exceeds 160 percent broadly consistent with

do horses like vodka and sponging on market manipulation and the favourite longshot bias one of the most striking empirical patterns of horse race betting markets is the favourite longshot bias bets on favourites have dramatically higher expected returns than bets on longshots the literature offers a couple of different though not mutually exclusive explanations based on risk preferences and probability perceptions this article adds a new possible explanation the favourite longshot bias may be the rational answer of an honest audience to a simple but highly lucrative cheating opportunity of insiders we provide anecdotal evidence that the type of cheating we model here really takes place what is more by employing a large scale german data set we are able to demonstrate that the pattern of the favourite longshot bias changes as the opportunity of cheating vanishes the changes we observe are in accord with the cheating model we suggest

managing new and differentiated remanufactured products we study a firm that makes new products in the first period and uses returned cores to make remanufactured products along with new products in future periods the remanufactured product is differentiated from the new product so the firm needs to choose differentiated prices we analyze the monopoly environment in two period multi period three four and five and infinite planning horizons and characterize the optimal remanufacturing and pricing strategy for the firm in the process we identify remanufacturing savings thresholds that determine the production and pricing strategy for the firm among other results we find counter to intuition that in a finite horizon multi period setting the optimal policy is not necessarily monotone in remanufacturing savings

yes one day international cricket in play trading strategies can be profitable abstract in this study we employ a monte carlo simulation technique for estimating the conditional probability of victory at any stage in the first or second innings of a one day international odi cricket match this model is then used to test market efficiency in the betfair in play market for large sample of odi matches we find strong evidence of overreaction in the first innings a trading strategy of betting on the batting team after the fall of a wicket produces a significant profit of 20 we also find some evidence of underreaction in the second innings although it is less economically and statistically significant than the first innings overreaction we also implement trades when the discrepancy between the probability of victory implied by current market odds differs substantially from the odds estimated by our monte carlo simulation model we document a number of trading strategies that yield large statistically significant positive returns in both the first and second innings

revealing weak form inefficiency in a market for state contingent claims the importance of market ecology modelling procedures and investment strategies this paper examines the degree to which current prices discount historical prices in a market for state contingent claims conditional logit analysis is employed to predict winning probabilities based on market prices in a betting market these are used together with various wagering strategies to yield substantial abnormal returns consequently in contrast to the existing literature the results suggest that the market is not weak form efficient the disparity with previous efficiency studies highlights the importance of considering market ecology and of adopting an appropriate modelling procedure and investment strategy to fully exploit information contained in market prices

racetrack betting and informed behavior abstract horse racing data permit interesting tests of attitudes toward risk the present paper studies a new sample of racetrack results from atlantic city new jersey the questions examined are 1 are the market odds the best data for predicting the order of finish 2 do horses go off at odds that reflect their true probability of winning 3 is there any evidence that late bettors have better information than early bettors it is found that market odds predict the order of finish well but that favorites are good bets and long shots are poor ones the data suggest that there does exist an informed class of bettors and that bettors are on the whole neither risk neutral nor risk averse

competitive advantage through take back of used products abstract motivated by a recent antitrust ruling against hill rom one of the two dominant american suppliers of hospital beds we develop a stylized model to investigate the consequences of used product take back on firms industry and customers our findings suggest that by taking back and reselling refurbished products a manufacturer can increase both profit margins and sales to the detriment of a non interfering competitor in our model customers are always better off under product take back but it depends on the degree of competition whether firms use the benefits of take back primarily to increase their margins or to pass them on to the customers by lowering their prices the first firm to offer take back in some cases can deter its competitors from following this profitable strategy especially if it has an existing advantage in terms of lower production cost or higher market share contrary to the claim of hill rom s competitor we find a legitimate business justification for hill rom s reduction of new product prices

testing risklove in an experimental racetrack abstract this paper tests the asch quandt betting hypothesis which accounts for the ubiquitous underbetting overbetting favourite longshot phenomenon found at most racetracks by postulating that horserace wagering is a consumption activity an experimental racetrack was designed with only off track betting permissible thereby eliminating much or all of the consumption involved but the basic anomaly remained and in a somewhat stronger form it is hypothesized that the observed betting behaviour of our subjects is consistent with prospect theory and its two outcome equivalent rank dependent expected utility theory

managing new and remanufactured products we study a firm that makes new products in the first period and uses returned cores to offer remanufactured products along with new products in future periods we introduce the monopoly environment in two period and multiperiod scenarios to identify thresholds in remanufacturing operations next we focus our attention on the duopoly environment where an independent operator io may intercept cores of products made by the original equipment manufacturer oem to sell remanufactured products in future periods we characterize the production quantities associated with self selection and explore the effect of various parameters in the nash equilibrium among other results we find that if remanufacturing is very profitable the original equipment manufacturer may forgo some of the first period margin by lowering the price and selling additional units to increase the number of cores available for remanufacturing in future periods further as the threat of competition increases the oem is more likely to completely utilize all available cores offering the remanufactured products at a lower price

the favourite longshot bias in parimutuel betting a clarification of the explanation that bettors like to bet longshots abstract one explanation of the favourite longshot bias in parimutuel betting is that bettors derive utility from betting longshots the purpose of this paper is to explore the conditions where such an explanation makes sense we posit a simple two horse race where there are two groups of bettors one group always bets the longshot the other bets on the basis of expected value the model yields two results in the absence of transactions costs track take there is no favourite longshot bias however if the track take is positive we would expect to observe the bias the primary reason is that there is no short selling mechanism in parimutuel betting markets hence the explanation that bettors like to bet longshots also requires transactions costs and no short selling

searching for the favourite longshot bias down under an examination of the new zealand pari mutuel betting market this paper tests for the presence of the favourite longshot bias in a new setting this bias 150 the tendency for bettors to underbet favourites and overbet longshots 150 has been found in most studies of pari mutuel and bookmaking betting markets in the usa the uk and australia however there is growing evidence that in at least some pari mutuel betting markets there is no favourite longshot bias this paper examines the previously unexplored new zealand pari mutuel betting market on horse races for evidence of this bias utilizing a large sample of recent new zealand thoroughbred horse races it is found that while early off track bettors price this bias into odds late on and off track bettors eliminate much of the bias by the close of betting that is the results reinforce the view that not all pari mutuel betting markets are characterized by a favourite longshot bias at the close of betting evidence is also found that late bettors in this market are smart bettors