credit market imperfections and economic development theory and evidence abstract a model of credit markets in which there is a costly state verification problem is integrated into a neoclassical growth model the presence of a credit market friction gives rise to credit rationing which in turn impacts on the growth path of an economy the model delivers predictions about the co movements between per capita income credit rationing interest rates and factor prices the implications of the model are generally empirically supported in u s and taiwanese data the model also makes predictions about the consequences of government regulation of credit markets which are supported by the taiwanese data

forest dependence and income distribution in a subsistence economy evidence from india abstract we examine an area of northern india where forestry acts to ameliorate the incidence of poverty and destitution though it does not otherwise contribute significantly to the reduction of income inequality the poor would be doubly disadvantaged without common property access to forest products conservation measures entailing curtailment in the right to common access pose a dilemma this issue is explored here

the resurgence of inflation in brazil 1974 1986 abstract this paper examines various factors which contributed to the resurgence of inflation in brazil in the 1970s and 1980s and the reasons for the failure of ortodox austerity programs to control it the evidence seems to black the school of thought which considers the best explanation for the recent inflationary experience to lie with the spread of formal and informal indexing leading to an inertial type of inflation the latter has led some economists to recommend heterodox methods of inflation control an epilogue briefly describes brazil s recent attempt to apply such methods

why the quantity theory of money is not applicable to china together with a tested theory that is using data for the period 1952 88 this paper argues that any statistical relationship between money and prices is not evidence of causation running from money to prices but is due to the consistent nature of planners reactions to purchasing power imbalances this is not an econometric study historical institutional and simple statistical analysis is used an outline descriptive picture of money development for this period in china is offered in the light of the simple theory applied here parallels with post keynesian monetary theory are suggested two appendixes explain the narrow money supply process and present all the data used copyright 1992 by oxford university press

optimal anti poverty programmes horizontal equity and the paradox of targeting the paper examines the problem of optimal targeting when households differ in needs additively decomposable poverty measures based on the households deprivation are employed needs are modelled carefully household size and needs are reflected by equivalence scales and weights the paradox of targeting corresponds to a situation in which the benefits given to a household type could decrease if the type s needs measured by the respective scale value are increased i find that poverty programmes are horizontally equitable if and only if the weight attached to each household type equals the respective equivalence scale value the paradox cannot then occur either differences in household size and needs the present paper deals with this topic considering optimal poverty alleviation programmes two questions are investigated first are optimal programmes horizontally equitable this question is related to the second one does an increase in needs lead to an increase in benefits in view of some results in the literature it seems that the answers can be negative for instance ebert 1997 demonstrates that the living standard of different household types may be different in an optimal income distribution given a social welfare function keen 1992 describes what he calls the paradox of targeting it may be that optimal targeting requires that an increase in the needs of some group be met by a reduction in the resources allocated to it thus the answers may be troubling it is obvious that the outcome of the analysis depends on the framework chosen and the researcher s objective there are several ingredients that determine optimal programmes given different needs and sizes a distribution of household income has to be adjusted in order to reflect these differences in practice incomes are often converted to equivalent incomes measured for a reference type and weights are attached furthermore the poverty lines of different groups have to be chosen appropriately an optimal outcome also

ipo first day returns offer price revisions volatility and form s 1 language abstract form s 1 is the first sec filing in the initial public offering ipo process the tone of the s 1 in terms of its definitiveness in characterizing the firm s business strategy and operations should affect investors ability to value the ipo we find that ipos with high levels of uncertain text have higher first day returns absolute offer price revisions and subsequent volatility our findings provide empirical evidence for the theoretical models of uncertainty bookbuilding and prospect theory

economic reforms and long run money demand in china implications for monetary policy although money demand equations have been estimated for many western countries only recently have researchers investigated the demand for money in centrally planned economies like china chow 7 who helped pioneer the analysis of chinese macro data estimates a simple money demand function derived from the quantity theory using annual data from 1952 through 1983 he concludes that the quantity theory provides a reasonable first approximation in explaining the demand for money in china 7 325 portes and santorum 27 use real and nominal adjustment specifications and test for the homogeneity of money demand with respect to the price level and real income feltenstein and farhadian 11 estimate a money demand function based on cagan s 3 work and blejer et al 1 estimate an error correction model using data for only the 1980s both studies find that the demand for real balances is explained by real income and an opportunity cost measure

empirical inflation models in developing countries sensitivity to the definition of inflation previous developing country inflation studies have demonstrated that the harberger monetarist model s explanatory power may be quite sensitive to the time period or explanatory variables used in this study the model s sensitivity to the definition of the inflation rate variable itself the dependent variable is investigated using a cross section time series data set of 19 developing nations it is shown that the harberger model is sensitive to the manner in which inflation is defined then a similar investigation is conducted for another more recently developed model of the inflationary process the hanson model this model exhibits less sensitivity to the choice of inflation variable

a decade of tax and benefit reforms in sweden effects on labour supply welfare and inequality sweden has experienced a sequence of tax and benefit reforms during the last decade in this paper we evaluate these reforms from labour supply welfare and inequality points of view we depart from a household labour supply model simulation of the model reveals that tax and benefit reforms have led to a considerable reduction of the excess burden regarding social welfare and inequality we show that the results depend to a large extent on the income inequality measure and the measure of social welfare as well as the income concept household disposable income or money metric utility

fuel poverty and access to electricity comparing households when they differ in needs although sequential stochastic dominance techniques have been used in the literature to make comparisons of income poverty which are robust to the assumptions made about the economies of scale within households the techniques could be applied to a much wider set of issues in this paper these techniques are applied to energy deprivation in guatemala fuel poverty is compared among households with and without access to electricity and it is assessed whether access to electricity for those who do not have access currently would eliminate the observed difference in fuel poverty between the two groups of households

poverty and household size the widely held view that larger families tend to be poorer in developing countries has influenced research and policy the scope for size economies in consumption cautions against this view we find that the correlation between poverty and size vanishes in pakistan when the size elasticity of the cost of living is about 0 6 this turns out to be the elasticity implied by a modified version of the food share method of setting scales by contrast some measures of child nutritional status indicate an elasticity of unity consideration of the weight attached to child versus adult welfare may help resolve the non robustness of demographic profiles of poverty excerpt

equivalence scale relativities and the extent of inequality and poverty most inequality and poverty theory analyzes equivalent income distributions for homogeneous populations incomes are assumed to be deflated by an equivalence scale that accounts for differences in needs between households yet in practice there is no consensus about what the appropriate equivalence scale is the authors analyze how the choice of equivalence scale affects inequality and poverty measures and show that there is a systematic relationship between equivalence scale generosity and the extent of inequality and poverty they consider most of the measures in common use and provide some empirical illustrations copyright 1992 by royal economic society

inflation and imported input prices in some inflationary latin american economies this paper first updates to 1980 the estimates of the harberger inflation model for argentina brazil chile colombia and uruguay and shows that all the hypotheses of this model hold and the reaction to monetary growth is fairly rapid an aggregate supply function including imported inputs is then hypothesized following recent theoretical work this yields two testable propositions on the reduced form estimates of inflation a the relation between inflation and monetary growth should be less than proportional and the income coefficient should be insignificant contrary to the harberger model and b inflation should be a weighted average of monetary growth and imported inflation assuming the underlying aggregate production function is homogenous of degree zero in prices tests on the same data base support both hypotheses these results also explain the similar results of many of the previous estimates of the harberger inflation equation which included the rate of devaluation in an ad hoc fashion

exchange rate determination and inflation in southeast asian countries abstract we estimate structural open economy models consistent with rational re and theories consistent tce expectations which incorporate cointegration to examine exchange rate determination and inflation in three southeast asian countries the re model is rejected in favor of the tce model our results show that while inflation in all three countries is affected by different external factors malaysia and singapore avoided high inflation despite high levels of economic growth through tight monetary policy in contrast the philippines had high inflation even with a stagnant economy due to loose monetary policy and the monetization of government debt

money and monetization in china s economic reform in addition to privatization marketization liberalization and pragmatization monetization has been argued as the fifth feature in china s economic reform if monetization is taken to mean a process through which variations in money supply or interest rate are to affect macroeconomic variables the construction of four causality relationships between interest rate and investment and money and national income do not support the evidence of such a process in china between the late 1970s and early 1990s

the measurement of inequality and poverty a policy maker s guide to the literature abstract mathematical measures of poverty and inequality embody values that reflect the historical political social intellectual and ethical forces prevalent at the time of their formulation so that policy makers may select measures of poverty and inequality that are consistent with their values it is important to make explicit the value judgements implicit in the measures models designed to measure poverty and inequality fall into four categories absolute poverty measures absolute income measures relative poverty measures and relative inequality measures this article examines the principal models within each category and discusses the assumptions limitations and values implicit in the models

the monetarist explanation of inflation the experience of six asian countries abstract studies on inflation employing the harberger type monetarist model have focused almost entirely on the hogh inflation experiences usually those of latin american countries this model is applied here to the six asian countries which contain low and moderate inflation cases the empirical results show that the growth of money stock was not the primary source of inflation in these countries the failure of the monetarist model to explain the behavior of prices in asian countries may be due 1 partly to the monetization of these economies which makes the growth of money stock endogenous and 2 partly to its rigid specification which excludes the impact of the various domestic and external cost pressures to test the validity of the latter proposition the monetarist model is augmented by the inclusion of import prices which are widely alleged to have intensified inflationary pressures the empirical results do indeed provide support for this view as regards monetary policy the findings of this paper suggest that monetary discipline may be by and large ineffective in controlling inflation in moderate inflation countries

worldwide reach of short selling regulations abstract we characterize legality and incidence of short selling in a worldwide multimarket framework home country short selling restrictions curtail home market stock borrowing by 45 and reduce short selling of the country s american depository receipts adrs by 68 due to regulatory reach also the 2008 us ban on short selling of financial firms reduced borrowing in foreign locations these findings are robust to controls for option availability enforcement returns firm size trading volume dividends adr level volatility days to cover and industry sector further we show that investor conduct resulting from adherence to professional standards is a more powerful mechanism of regulatory reach than intergovernment cooperation

sequential dominance and weighted utilitarianism abstract one well known way to make heterogeneous welfare comparisons comparing distributions in which households differ in both income and needs is atkinson and bourguignon s atkinson a b bourguignon f 1987 income distribution and differences in needs in feiwel g r ed arrow and the foundations of the theory of economic policy macmillan london pp 350 370 sequential generalized lorenz dominance criterion we show that it suffices to be a weighted utilitarian with higher weights for the more needy to accept the sequential generalized lorenz dominance criterion

unorganized money markets and unproductive assets in the new structuralist critique of financial liberalization abstract the new structuralists critique of financial liberalization emphasizes the role of informal credit markets in financing firms residual credit demand in ldcs and the relevance of households portfolio substitution patterns the sensitivity of their policy conclusions is demonstrated in the context of a representative model developed by van wijnbergen the relative efficiency of intermediation in the formal and informal credit markets crucially affects the outcome of the portfolio allocation effects generated by higher bank deposit rates an anomaly in the characterization of unproductive assets in defining credit supply is also examined

the new structuralist critique of the monetarist theory of inflation the case of the philippines abstract developing economies may be characterized by long production lags advanced outlays to finance working capital needs will therefore assume primary importance with weak commodity and equity markets the financing is usually funded by credit either from the legal banking sector or from an underground curb market monetary and credit contraction espoused by monetarists as a key policy for controlling inflation will increase the cost of financing working capital needs this has an immediate short run stagflationary impact coming from the supply side of the economy the study uses a one sector macro model to test this hypothesis on the philippines with annual data from 1958 to 1980 the results give empirical support to the claim that the working capital cost push supply side effect is strong enough which means that austerity measures may require a heavy and costly recession before price inflation can be brought down

public sector banking efficiency and economic growth in india abstract this paper develops a framework that integrates harrod domar growth model and mckinnon shaw hypothesis via molho s dynamic adjustment mechanism the model is used to determine the impact of bank nationalization through aggressive bank branch expansion programs and priority sector credit allocation on india s financial savings investment productivity and gdp the empirical findings indicate that the bank nationalization policy has been a mixed blessing the aggressive bank branch program since 1969 resulted in an increased in savings investment productivity of capital and gdp however the priority sector credit allocation policy did not fully achieve its desired goals

the dynamics of chronic inflation in brazil 1968 1985 this article develops an error correction model with the aim of analyzing the behavior of prices during a period of chronic inflation in brazil the degree of inflationary inertia is estimated and tests for the importance of disequilibria in the domestic money foreign goods labor and domestic goods markets on inflation are carried out

health and income a robust comparison of canada and the us abstract this paper uses sequential stochastic dominance procedures to compare the joint distribution of health and income across space and time it is the first application of which we are aware of methods to compare multidimensional distributions of income and health using procedures that are robust to aggregation techniques the paper s approach is more general than comparisons of health gradients and does not require the estimation of health equivalent incomes we illustrate the approach by contrasting canada and the us using comparable data canada dominates the us over the bottom part of the bi dimensional distribution of health and income though not generally over the uni dimensional distributions of health or income the paper also finds that welfare for both canadians and americans has not unambiguously improved during the last decade over the joint distribution of income and health in spite of the fact that the uni dimensional distributions of income have clearly improved during that period

when failure becomes success class and the debate over stabilization and adjustment abstract this article criticizes the current debate over stabilization and adjustment and develops an alternative class analytic approach first the respective theories and policy recommendations of neoclassical and structuralist economist are analyzed then the article considers the recent experiences of argentina brazil and peru where orthodox and heterodox policies have been attempted and subsequently declared failures finally it is shown that those failures with respect to employment inflation and the balance of payments become successes to the extent that they involve increasing exploitation and otherwise strengthening the class aspects of capitalism

inflationary effects of changes in effective exchange rates ldcs experience the inflationary effects of devaluations in less developed countries is investigated using rate of change of effective exchange rates it is shown that for most countries in the sample devaluations or depreciations are inflationary during the current floating exchange rate system in addition to inflationary effects of depreciations excees money supply imported inflation and expectation are also identified as additional sources of inflation in less developed countries

inflation growth and import bottlenecks in the turkish manufacturing industry abstract this paper argues that in economies heavily dependent on imported inputs the responsiveness of price and output to cost and demand factors are altered by foreign exchange bottlenecks if the government resorts to non market allocation of import licenses a model of price and output determination which captures this stipulation is presented estimation results for the turkish manufacturing industry over the 1952 1980 periods support the hypothesis that price and output elasticities are different between the import crisis and non crisis periods most importantly monetary expansion is inflationary when there are important bottlenecks but has real output effects otherwise

financial repression the new structuralists and stabilization policy in semi industrialized economies abstract this paper examines the short and long run effects of a variety of macroeconomic policies in a simple model where the curb market plays a pivotal role as the marginal supplier of loanable funds it is found that financial liberalization may fail in the short run and contrary to the claims of the new structuralists that the financial market repercussions of devaluation may be favorable in evaluating any policy the time horizon is critical short and long run multipliers may differ in sign in all cases save that of a contraction in the stock of bank credit

poverty and distorted industrialization in the brazilian northeast abstract dramaric federal intervention and extensive industrialization in the brazilian northeast have not overcome its stagnant economy and society after centuries of isolation and dependence on sugar exports the northeast was integrated economicallu into brazil during 1930 1960 and since then it has been partially industrialized the regional economy however is weakly integrated and highly unequal leaving local markets small industrial growth remains keyed to other parts of brazil and dependent politics distort the region s relations with brasilia social inequality is extreme prospects for the future are bleak

rumor has it sensationalism in financial media the media has an incentive to publish sensational news we study how this incentive affects the accuracy of media coverage in the context of merger rumors using a novel dataset we find that accuracy is predicted by a journalist s experience specialized education and industry expertise conversely less accurate stories use ambiguous language and feature well known firms with broad readership appeal investors do not fully account for the predictive power of these characteristics leading to an initial target price overreaction and a subsequent reversal consistent with limited attention overall we provide novel evidence on the determinants of media accuracy and its effect on asset prices

china s inflation 1979 1983 measurement and analysis one of china s economic achievements since the founding of the people s republic has been the maintenance of a relative price stability over a considerable period of time inflation however did emerge several times over the past 30 years after the rapidly rising prices of the late 1940s were brought under control in 1950 some inflationary pressures appeared in 1953 and then again in 1956 but in both cases these pressures were relatively mild and were quickly removed the serious production shortfalls and financial deficits that followed the great leap forward of 1958 59 caused price levels to rise rapidly in 1960 62 this time the inflationary pressures were stronger and lasted longer since 1979 inflation once again has become a major problem in the chinese economy in 1979 the chinese press began to report price increases and these increases apparently became substantial and widespread in 1980 although official reports indicated a slowdown in the growth of prices in 1981 83 inflation has continued to represent a latent threat to china s economic stability and growth 2 since the chinese economy is organized and operated under a socialist system with centralized allocation of major resources and state control over the prices of essential products the character and dimensions of inflation in china should be very different from those in a market economy an analysis of chinese inflation therefore not only may add to the existing knowledge about the operation of the nonmarket economy in china but also may shed light on the complexity of the economic reforms that are being undertaken a fundamental

concepts of poverty and the poverty line abstract various approaches adopted in developed economies to distinguishing between the poor and non poor to setting a poverty line are reviewed these include the budget standard food ratio official subjective and relative poverty line methods as well as the analysis of indicators of deprivation there has been significant progress in recent years in the degree of sophistication involved and a movement away from approaches with a quasi absolute background however all the methods face formidable problems at conceptual and empirical levels and no single approach is likely to dominate

robust multidimensional poverty comparisons we demonstrate how to make poverty comparisons using multidimensional indicators of well being showing in particular how to check whether the comparisons are robust to aggregation procedures and to the choice of multidimensional poverty lines in contrast to earlier work our methodology applies equally well to what can be defined as union intersection or intermediate approaches to dealing with multidimensional indicators of well being to make this procedure of some practical usefulness the paper also derives the sampling distribution of various multidimensional poverty estimators including estimators of the critical poverty frontiers outside which multidimensional poverty comparisons can no longer be deemed ethically robust the results are illustrated using data from a number of developing countries

do tender offers create value new methods and evidence abstract conventional techniques of estimating takeover value improvements measure only a fraction of the total gain and include revelation about bidder stand alone value to address these biases we develop the probability scaling method which rescales announcement date returns and the intervention method which uses returns at intervening events perceived value improvements are larger than traditional methods indicate we cannot reject the hypothesis that bidders on average pay fair prices combined bidder target stock returns are higher for hostile offers lower for equity offers and lower for diversifying offers these effects reflect revelation about bidder stand alone value not differences in gains from combination

decoding inside information exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons we show that there is predictable identifiable routine insider trading that is not informative about firms futures a portfolio strategy that focuses solely on the remaining opportunistic traders yields value weighted abnormal returns of 82 basis points per month while abnormal returns associated with routine traders are essentially zero the most informed opportunistic traders are local nonexecutive insiders from geographically concentrated poorly governed firms opportunistic traders are significantly more likely to have sec enforcement action taken against them and reduce trading following waves of sec insider trading enforcement

the financial repression liberalization debate taking stock looking for a synthesis financial repression and liberalization became the object of fierce debates between academics and policy makers since the early 1970s as of the late 1980s financial liberalization became also part of the structural adjustment programs sponsored by the international monetary fund and the world bank however the literature on financial repression and liberalization remains controversial on its theoretical conclusions and policy implications given its importance for both the theory and policy of economic development and growth this paper looks for a possible synthesis after reviewing the theoretical contributions and empirical studies under the headings of the mckinnon shaw and new structuralists models the survey concludes that a new synthesis might be found in the post keynesian attempt to take an institutional perspective within a globalised financial and economic environment

dynamic poverty decomposition analysis an application to the philippines summary in this paper we propose a new method of poverty decomposition our method remedies the shortcomings of existing methods and has some desirable properties such as time reversion consistency and subperiod additivity our decomposition integrates the existing methods of growth redistribution decomposition and sector based decomposition because it allows us to decompose the change in poverty into growth and redistribution components for each group e g regions or sectors in the economy our decomposition works well in cases where only partial data are available for some periods it is also flexible and can be extended to have the following six components population shift within region redistribution between region redistribution nominal growth inflation and methodological change components the empirical application of the six way decomposition to the philippines for the period 1985 2009 shows that important policies for poverty reduction may differ across regions for example the autonomous region in muslim mindanao would need growth enhancing policies whereas eastern visayas would need policies to improve the income distribution our decomposition method has a wide applicability and may complement the poverty profile approach

the market for news we investigate the market for news under two assumptions that readers hold beliefs which they like to see confirmed and that newspapers can slant stories toward these beliefs we show that on the topics where readers share common beliefs one should not expect accuracy even from competitive media competition results in lower prices but common slanting toward reader biases on topics where reader beliefs diverge such as politically divisive issues however newspapers segment the market and slant toward extreme positions yet in the aggregate a reader with access to all news sources could get an unbiased perspective generally speaking reader heterogeneity is more important for accuracy in media than competition per se

debt crisis adjustment policies and capital formation in developing countries where do we stand abstract this paper documents the decline in investment rates observed in developing countries after 1982 and explores analytically and empirically the factors contributing to explain it the paper focuses on the impact of macroeconomic adjustment and reform measures on private investment particularly in latin america and east asia and underscores the importance of macroeconomic uncertainty policy credibility and potential coordination failures in shaping the response of investment to the changes in economic incentives brought about by structural reforms the analysis concludes with some policy recommendations to improve the design of sustainable growth oriented adjustment programs

inflation dynamics in a small emerging market this study investigates the determinants of inflation in the dominican republic during 1991 to 2002 a period characterized by remarkable macroeconomic stability and growth by developing a parsimonious and empirically stable error correction model using quarterly observations the study finds that inflation is explained by changes in monetary aggregates real output foreign inflation and the exchange rate long run relationships in the money and traded goods markets are found to exist but only the disequilibrium from the money market exerts a significant impact on inflation

an axiomatic characterization of the watts poverty index abstract although the first distribution sensitive decomposable poverty index the watts index has long been neglected by the profession even when it was searching for a decomposable index this neglect is due partly to the lack of an axiomatic characterization for the watts index this paper adopts an axiomatic approach and complements the watts index with such a characterization under a set of reasonable axioms the watts index is the unique index if a poverty index is perceived as the absolute amount of social welfare loss due to poverty the watts index is relatively easy to apply it also satisfies all basic axioms for a good poverty index

measuring poverty and differences in family composition the equivalence scales used to adjust for differences in family composition when measuring poverty exhibit considerable variation this paper suggests an alternative approach that allows for differences in social judgements regarding the treatment of different types of family and examines the relation with the choice of poverty measure the resulting dominance criteria cannot provide a complete ranking but allow the extent of disagreement to be identified their application is illustrated by the example of changes in child benefits copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

measuring welfare poverty and inequality a class of poverty measures is identified the members of which satisfy strong monotonicity and transfer conditions these measures are closely related to indices of income inequality based on the notion of a mean equivalent income a restriction on the class of admissible measures allows poverty to be interpreted in terms of the loss in mean equivalent income resulting from the fact that some people are poor copyright 1987 by royal economic society

equity regarding poverty measures differences in needs and the role of equivalence scales the paper investigates the definition of equity regarding poverty measures when there are different household types in the population it demonstrates the implications of a between type regressive transfer principle for poverty measures for the choice of poverty lines and for the measurement of living standard the role of equivalence scales which are popular in empirical work on poverty measurement is clarified ce memoire examine la definition de mesures de pauvrete fondees sur l equite quand existent differents types de menages dans la population on montre les implications d un principe de transfert regressif entre types de menages pour les mesures de pauvrete pour la definition des seuils de pauvrete et pour la mesure du niveau de vie on clarifie le role des echelles d equivalence qui sont d un usage generalise dans les travaux sur la mesure de la pauvrete

inflation indexing and economic development abstract recent analyses have established that there are significant costs as well as benefits to issuing indexed bonds an assessment of the desirability of indexing hasproven to be clusive perhaps because of the complexity involved in formulating the presumably government preferences by which indexing is to be evaluated and in ascertaining the optimal government policy with which to accompany indexing this paper develops a general framework for examining indexed bonds the envelope theorem is exploited to derive a convenient representation of the effects of indexing the crucial elements in evaluating indexed bonds are the relative desirabilities of transferring purchasing power to the government and reducing consumer liquidity the greater is the relative importance placed on the former the more likely are the effects of indexed bonds to be favorably evaluated

aggregate poverty measures the way poverty is measured is important for an understanding of what has happened to poverty as well as for anti poverty policy evaluation sen s 1976 pathfinding work has motivated many researchers to focus on the way poverty should be measured a poverty measure argued by sen should satisfy certain properties or axioms and the desirability of a poverty measure should be evaluated by these axioms during the last two decades many researchers have adopted the axiomatic approach pioneered by sen to propose additional axioms and develop alternative poverty measures the objective of this survey is to provide a clarification on the extensive literature of aggregate poverty measures in this survey we first examine the desirability of each axiom the properties of each poverty measure and the interrelationships among axioms the desirability of an axiom cannot be evaluated in isolation and some combination of axioms may make it impossible to devise a satisfactory poverty measure some axioms can be implied by other axioms combined and so are not independent some others are ad hoc and are disqualified as axioms for poverty measurement based on the interactions among axioms we identify the core axioms which together have a strong implication on the functional form of a poverty measure we then review poverty measures that have appeared in the literature evaluating the interrelationships among different measures and examining the properties of each measure the axioms each measure satisfies violates are also summarized in a tabular form several good poverty measures which have not been documented by previous surveys are also included

causal relationships among economic aggregates in china using china s macro data from 1952 to 1989 the stationarity and causality tests to two types of economic aggregates are applied the first type relates to the conventional money income and consumption relationship and the other is associated with the interest rate money and investment income relationship as embodied in a financial repression model stationarity test results show that a different direction of causality exists when different measurement of price is used a causal relationship between interest rate money and investment income is also found

inflation dynamics and food prices in ethiopia during the global food crisis ethiopia experienced an unprecedented increase in inflation among the highest in africa using monthly data over the past decade we estimate models of inflation to identify the importance of the factors contributing to cpi inflation and three of its major components cereal prices food prices and non food prices our main finding is that movements in international food and goods prices measured in domestic currency determined the long run evolution of domestic prices in the short run agricultural supply shocks affected food inflation causing large deviations from long run price trends monetary policy seems to have accommodated price shocks but money supply growth affected short run non food price inflation our results suggest that when analyzing inflation in developing economies with a large food share in consumer prices world food prices and domestic agricultural production should be considered omitting these factors can lead to biased results and misguided policy decisions

markup pricing in mergers and acquisitions this paper studies the relation between the premiums in takeover bids involving exchange listed target firms from 1975 91 and the pre announcement stock price runups the evidence shows that the pre bid runup and the postannouncement increase in the target s stock price the markup are generally uncorrelated with little substitution between the runup and the markup the runup is an added cost to the bidder this finding has important implications for assessing the costs of insider trading it also raises interesting questions about the role of information from public capital markets in private takeover negotiations

stagflationary effects of monetary stabilization policies a quantitative analysis of south korea this paper presents a macro model of the korean economy that focuses on short run macro economic adjustment and more in particular on the transmission channels of monetary policy between the financial and the real sector of the economy in addition to the usual link between monetary policy and aggregate demand via investment the link between monetary policy and the supply side of the economy via the financing of working capital with borrowed funds is incorporated this link can potentially reverse the short run impact of tight money on inflation and aggregate the impact on output both export prices and domestic prices show a significant sensitivity to cost of financing working capital this credit supply side link gives a stagflationary bias to restrictive credit policies the empirical relevance of this phenomenon is strongly supported by the simulation results derived with the model structurally section 2 of the paper focuses on the real sector part of the model section 3 discusses the financial sector in section 4 different monetary stabilization packages are simulated using the model presented in sections 2 and 3 and alternative policy measures are discussed the simulation runs show strong short run stagflationary effects of tight money policies

journalists and the stock market we use exogenous scheduling of wall street journal columnists to identify a causal relation between financial reporting and stock market performance to measure the media s unconditional effect we add columnist fixed effects to a daily regression of excess dow jones industrial average returns relative to standard control variables these fixed effects increase the r super 2 by about 35 indicating each columnist s average persistent bullishness or bearishness to measure the media s conditional effect we interact columnist fixed effects with lagged returns this increases explanatory power by yet another one third and identifies amplification or attenuation of prevailing sentiment as a tool used by financial journalists the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

hyperinflation the exchange rate and endogenous money post world war i germany revisited abstract we re examine the interaction of domestic and external factors in the german hyperinflation by extending frenkel s monetary model of the exchange rate to incorporate 1 endogeneity of the money supply with respect to government debt expected inflation and money wages 2 the direct impact of exchange rate depreciation on the domestic price level and 3 endogenous wage determination four equation estimates support each extension of the monetary model it appears that government deficit finance the collapse of the exchange rate and the monetary transmission of the wage price spiral were all crucial contributors to the price explosion

canaries and vultures a quantitative history of monetary mismanagement in brazil during the last two decades of the twentieth century brazil went through a sequence of failed stabilization plans that tried to cope with an enduring hyperinflation this paper uses a money demand model to evaluate monetary policies during those episodes consistency between money supply and expected conditional money demand growth rates is considered for each plan it is shown that unsuccessful programs were marked by excessive liquidity the results not only suggest that monetary mismanagement led to the failure of the plans but also that the excessive liquidity could have been predicted