economic and political determinants of budget deficits in developing countries abstract the evidence from a large sample of developing countries tends to reject the empirical implications of optimizing models of the process of determination of fiscal deficits tax rates seigniorage and inflation the paper also presents some preliminary evidence that an important reason for the failure of the equilibrium approach to fiscal policy is that fiscal deficits are partly determined by political factors and that cross country differentials in budget deficits may depend on measures of political instability in particular as suggested by a number of recent theoretical approaches an increase in the degree of political instability appears to lead to greater budget deficits

why is stabilization sometimes delayed reevaluating the regime type hypothesis existing work on the politics of stabilization has failed to find compelling evidence of a regime type effect this article reformulates and reevaluates the regime type hypothesis it is argued tha

the political economy of inflation and stabilization in developing countries the traditional literature on inflation in developing countries has focused on three main determinants of inflationary pressures a money creation b fiscal imbalances and c cost push elements while the first two factors have been emphasized by authors of a monetarist persuasion cost factors have played a crucial role in the structuralist theories developed during the 1950s and 1960s however more recent analyses on inflation and stabilization have shifted their attention away from traditional direct economic causes of inflation such as money creation toward political and institutional determinants of inflationary forces this new literature which has come to be known as the political economy approach to macroeconomic policy has built on some important insights of game theory and the theory of public choice trying to explain why some governments decide to run large fiscal deficits and to rely heavily on the inflation tax typically in answering these questions this recent strand of the literature has emphasized the role of political instability credibility reputation and political cycles 2 in spite of providing some important new insights into the determinants of inflation this new literature is subject to two limitations first until recently most of the contributions have been theoretical without providing empirical tests on their most important implications and second the emphasis has been almost exclusively on the industrialized countries ignoring the developing nations the purpose of this article is to discuss selectively some of the most important insights of this new literature on policy making from the developing countries perspective i will emphasize the policy implications of this approach to inflationary analysis and discuss some of the limited empirical results

why are stabilizations delayed when a stabilization has significant distributional implications e g tax increases to eliminate a large budget deficit socioeconomic groups may attempt to shift the burden of stabilization onto other groups the process leading to stabilization becomes a war of attrition each group attempting to wait the others out and stabilization occurring only when one group concedes and bears a disproportionate share of the burden the authors solve for the expected time of stabilization in a model of rational delay and relate it to several political and economic variables they motivate this approach and its results by comparison to historical and current episodes copyright 1991 by american economic association

the benefit of crises for economic reforms when expenditures consistently outrun revenue the resulting inflation may have the effect of convincing the public and government that taxes must be raised to finance public investment in the advanced industrial countries income taxation and big spurts in taxation generally have become possible only under the impact of major emergency and crisis mostly in wartime in a number of developing countries in

pollution accumulation and abatement policy in a supply chain abstract this paper seeks to determine how the double marginalization phenomenon affects the tradeoff between polluting emissions and abatement activities related to pollution accumulation in a supply chain composed of one manufacturer and one retailer the environmental consequence of this inefficiency which emerges in a non cooperative vertical setting governed by a single parameter contract is overlooked in the literature on pollution control in the setup of a two stage game we investigate the impact of double marginalization for non cooperative equilibrium to check whether there are differences between dynamic and strategic effects of double marginalization on pollution accumulation both the open loop and feedback nash equilibria are derived over a finite time horizon with the cooperative solution as a benchmark

the roles of stakeholder support and procedure oriented management on asset recovery abstract as the management of returned products is fast becoming a business trend caused by pressure for compliance asset recovery is increasingly viewed as a fertile area for firms to reduce cost and improve quality environmental management is a viable approach for chinese manufacturers to respond to the escalating international quest for conserving the environment to tackle the problem of rising raw material costs and to improve product quality by analyzing returned products to reach the goals of cost reduction and product quality improvement manufacturers need to understand how asset recovery can be leveraged through procedure based practices and stakeholder support to enhance performance product type characterized by different levels of demand uncertainty and time to market may affect the outcomes of asset recovery adoption and should also be taken into account drawing on the environmental management and business logistics literature we provide empirical insights on asset recovery adoption using survey data collected from export oriented chinese manufacturers we find that asset recovery and stakeholder support are complementary in strengthening manufacturers financial performance regardless of product type in addition the performance impact of asset recovery can be substantial when manufacturers environmental management practices are less procedural allowing flexibility in the logistics management of product flows

can foreign aid accelerate stabilization this paper studies the effect of foreign aid on economic stabilization following alesina and drazen 1991 we model the delay in stabilizing as the result of a distributional struggle reforms are postponed because they are costly and each distributional faction hopes to reduce its share of the cost by outlasting its opponents in obstructing the required policies since the delay is used to signal each faction s strength the effect of the transfer depends on the role it plays in the release of information we show that this role depends on the timing of the transfer foreign aid decided and transferred sufficiently early into the game leads to earlier stabilization but aid decided or transferred too late is destabilizing and encourages further postponement of reforms

understanding economic policy reform one of the eventual consequences of the global debt crisis was a wave of market oriented economic reforms this paper discusses the state of our knowledge on the political economy of this process why were inefficient and often unsustainable policies maintained for so long why are so many governments reforming now after decades of adherence to policies of an opposite kind have the reformers internalized the correct lessons from the east asian experience finally are there any helpful rules for reformers to follow in guiding their policies through complicated political terrain

explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries abstract in this paper we investigate empirically the determinants of inflation seigniorage and fiscal deficits in developing countries we first test the optimal taxation theory of inflation for a group of 21 lcds we find that the implications of this theory are rejected for all these countries we then proceed to implement a number of tests based on the new political economy approach to macroeconomic policies we deal with some of the implications of a credibility and reputation model and of a strategic government behavior model we find that the data support the most important predictions of the political economy view of fiscal policy our measures of political instability and political polarization play an important role in explaining cross country differences in seigniorage inflation government borrowing and fiscal deficits we end by discussing directions for future research

economic stabilization conditionality and political stability imf conditionality is seldom so important that it dominates all other considerations for political stability imf stabilization programs often shift benefits from one group to another they expose elites to charges of selling the sovereignty of their countries the imposition of imf conditions particularly subsidy cuts may lead to sharp outbreaks of civil disorder nonetheless the imf provides resources that make adjustment easier and thus may lessen the chances of political instability for a country imf programs are seldom implemented fully as negotiated and the penalties for partial compliance are not great debtor countries have more flexibility in imposing austerity measures and the economic constraints are less binding than often assumed the very availability of alternatives to imf programs results in internal divisions because some favor debt repudiation and others oppose it groups now contend over solutions to the debt problems of their countries

stigmatized asset value is it temporary or long term stigma is a negative attribute of real estate acquired by environmental contamination and reflected in its value elliot jones 1996 using a model of neighborhood turnover with external economies we show that both temporary stigma and long term stigma are possible equilibrium outcomes after the discovery and cleanup of a hazardous waste site the existence and duration of stigma are examined using hedonic price techniques with data from housing sales prices in dallas county texas we find that results depend critically on distance from the hazardous waste site neighborhood turnover due to changes in the level of poverty also appears likely

the impact of environmental management on firm performance environmental management has the potential to play a pivotal role in the financial performance of the firm many individuals suggest that profitability is hurt by the higher production costs of environmental management initiatives while others cite anecdotal evidence of increased profitability a theoretical model is proposed that links strong environmental management to improved perceived future financial performance as measured by stock market performance the linkage to firm performance is tested empirically using financial event methodology and archival data of firm level environmental and financial performance significant positive returns were measured for strong environmental management as indicated by environmental performance awards and significant negative returns were measured for weak environmental management as indicated by environmental crises the implicit financial market valuation of these events also was estimated cross sectional analysis of the environmental award events revealed differences for first time awards and between industries first time award announcements were associated with greater increases in market valuation although smaller increases were observed for firms in environmentally dirty industries possibly indicative of market skepticism this linkage between environmental management and financial performance can be used by both researchers and practitioners as one measure of the benefits experienced by industry leaders and as one criterion against which to measure investment alternatives

reviewing the business case for corporate social responsibility new evidence and analysis this study complements previous empirical research on the business case for corporate social responsibility csr by employing hitherto unused data on corporate social performance csp and proposing statistical analyses to account for bi directional causality between social and financial performance by allowing for differences in the importance of single components of csp between industries the data in this study overcome certain limitations of the databases used in earlier studies the econometrics employed offer a rigorous way of addressing the problem of endogeneity due to simultaneous causality although the study s results provide no evidence that there is a generic or universal business case for csr they indicate that there is a strong link between single stakeholder related issues of csr and financial performance however the analysis does not establish causality within these relationships

quality awards and the market value of the firm an empirical investigation this paper empirically investigates the impact of winning a quality award on the market value of firms by estimating the mean abnormal change in the stock prices of a sample of firms on the date when information about winning a quality award was publicly announced we note that the abnormal returns generated by the quality award winning announcements provide a lower bound for the impact of implementing an effective quality award improvement program our results show that the stock market reacts positively to quality award announcements statistically significant mean abnormal returns on the day of the announcements ranged from a low of 0 59 to a high of 0 67 depending on the model used to generate the abnormal returns the reaction was particularly strong for smaller firms mean abnormal returns ranged from low of 1 16 to a high of 1 26 and for firms that won awards from independent organizations such as malcolm baldrige philip crosby etc mean abnormal returns ranged from a low of 1 31 to a h

event study methodologies and the size effect abstract this study of 862 press recommendations demonstrates that the size effect can distort longer term performance measures and hence event studies relative to similar sized companies post publication performance is neutral however market adjustments the capm and market model with equally or capitalization weighted indexes all produce biased results event studies are most exposed to such bias when the measurement interval is long event securities differ systematically in size or weighting from the index constituents the size effect is large and or volatile and when capm type methodologies are used these distortions are avoided by explicitly controlling for size

informal regulation of pollution in a developing country evidence from india abstract recent policy discussions recognise the limitations of formal regulations to stem pollution in developing countries as a result there is a growing interest in the potential of informal regulations to achieve environmental goals in india many polluting industries fall under the rubric of the unorganised sector in such a context localised pollution may be influenced by discussions and reports on pollution in the vernacular press this study attempts to test the hypothesis that the press can act as an informal agent of pollution control this hypothesis is tested using monthly water pollution data from four hot spots in the state of gujarat india for the period 1996 to 2000 the results show that the press can function as an informal regulator if there is sustained interest in news about pollution however not all pollution agents are affected by pollution news press coverage appears to mainly influence industrial estates with a mix of small medium and large industries

the politics of adjustment lessons from the imf s extended fund facility the international debt crisis has forced painful economic adjustments on the developing world in the short run it has forced governments to seek to correct payments imbalances through stabilization programs usually undertaken with conditional assistance from the international monetary fund imf the crisis has also revealed deeper weaknesses in many third world economies weaknesses demanding more basic reforms in the structure of incentives prices and investment

stock dividends stock splits and signaling this paper provides evidence that firms signal their private information about future earnings by their choice of split factor split factors are increasing in earnings forecast errors after controlling for differences in pre split price and firm size furthermore price changes at stock dividend and split announcements are significantly correlated with split factors holding other factors constant and with earnings forecast errors these correlations suggest that management s choice of split factor signals private information about future earnings and that investors revise their beliefs about firm value accordingly the analysis also suggests however that announcement returns are significantly correlated with split factors after controlling for earnings forecast errors this suggests that earnings forecast errors measure management s private information about future earnings with error that split factors signal other valuation relevant attributes or that a signaling explanation is incomplete researchers have long puzzled over the role of stock splits and stock dividends a stock dividend or split increases the number of equity shares outstanding but has no effect on shareholders proportional ownership of shares it is therefore puzzling that firms engage in these transactions and even more so that stock prices rise on average when these transactions are announced as grinblatt masulis and titman 1984 document the significant positive announcement effects led grinblatt masulis and titman hereafter gmt to hypothesize that firms signal information about their future earnings or equity values through their split decisions to date this hypothesis has met with limited support gmt conclude that the announcement returns cannot be explained by forecasts of imminent increases in cash dividends because they observe similar stock price behavior in firms that do not pay dividends our study provides further evidence on the signaling hypothesis by testing whether stock dividends and splits convey information about future earnings and by testing whether the split factor itself is the signal the notion that the split factor may act as a signal has institutional as well as theoretical support practitioners have long contended that the purpose of stock splits is to move a firm s share price into an optimal trading range baker and gallagher 1980 who surveyed chief financial officers of firms that split their shares report that 94 of their sample indicated their stock splits moved their

the political economy of adjustment and rebalancing abstract debt and balance of payments crises are politically controversial in the aftermath of such crises conflict typically breaks out over how the burden of adjustment will be distributed there is international conflict between debtor nations and creditor nations over how outstanding debts will be resolved and there is conflict within nations over who will make the sacrifices necessary to get economies back on track these political conflicts often become so bitter and protracted that they impede productive bargaining over the adjustment process the characteristics of socio economic and political divisions within societies affect the battles over economic adjustment as well as who will emerge victorious from these battles and how difficult it may be to arrive at a productive resolution of the crisis

the impact of environmental regulations on industry productivity direct and indirect effects abstract the paper develops an approach to measuring the impact of environmental regulations on total factor productivity growth which is less restrictive than a simple growth accounting approach environmental regulations have a direct impact on productivity growth due to the diversion of resources toward required abatement capital there can be a further indirect effect however as conventional inputs and production processes are changed in response to requirements to purchase abatement capital we estimate this indirect effect using a flexible functional form cost function total factor productivity and the direct and indirect productivity effects of environmental regulations are presented for five polluting industries we find that the indirect effect can be either positive or negative and in all industries is energy using the net impact of environmental regulations on total factor productivity growth is fairly small given that these are the most polluting industries they account for about 10 30 of the productivity decline of the 1970s in these industries