the relative valuation of caps and swaptions theory and empirical evidence although traded as distinct products caps and swaptions are linked by noarbitrage relations through the correlation structure of interest rates using a string market model we solve for the correlation matrix implied by swaptions and examine the relative valuation of caps and swaptions we find that swaption prices are generated by four factors and that implied correlations are lower than historical correlations long dated swaptions appear mispriced and there were major pricing distortions during the 1998 hedge fund crisis cap prices periodically deviate significantly from the no arbitrage values implied by the swaptions market the growth in interest rate swaps during the past decade has led to the creation and rapid expansion of markets for two important types of swap related derivatives interest rate caps and swaptions these over the counter derivatives are widely used by many firms to manage their interest rate risk exposure and collectively represent the largest class of fixed income options in the financial markets the international swaps and derivatives association isda estimates that the total notional amount of caps and swaptions outstanding at the end of 1997 was over 4 9 trillion which was more than 300 times the 15 billion notional of all chicago board of trade treasury note and bond futures options combined caps and swaptions are generally traded as separate products in the financial markets and the models used to value caps are typically different from those used to value swaptions furthermore most wall street firms use a piecemeal approach in calibrating their models for caps and swaptions making it difficult to evaluate whether these derivatives are fairly priced

demand elasticities for food products in brazil a two stage budgeting system the object of this article is to estimate demand elasticities for a basket of staple food important for providing the caloric needs of brazilian households these elasticities are useful in the measurement of the impact of structural reforms on poverty a two stage demand system was constructed based on data from household expenditure surveys pof produced by ibge the brazilian bureau of statistics in 1987 88 and 1995 96 we have used panel data to estimate the model and have calculated income own price and cross price elasticities for eight groups of goods and services and in the second stage for 11 sub groups of staple food products we estimated those elasticities for the whole sample of consumers and for two income groups

can unspanned stochastic volatility models explain the cross section of bond volatilities in fixed income markets volatility is unspanned if volatility risk cannot be hedged with bonds we first show that all affine term structure models with state space m n m can be drift normalized and show when the standard variance normalization can be obtained using this normalization we find conditions for a wide class of affine term structure models to exhibit unspanned stochastic volatility usv we show that the usv conditions restrict both the mean reversions of risk factors and the cross section of conditional yield volatilities the restrictions imply that previously studied affine usv models are unlikely to be able to generate the observed cross section of yield volatilities however more general usv models can match the cross section of bond volatilities this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

estimating theoretically consistent demand systems using cointegration techniques with application to greek food data abstract the use of time series techniques cointegration and error correction models has been offered as a potentially promising way in estimating demand systems that resolve the perennial issue of violating the theoretical postulates of homogeneity and symmetry the empirical results of this paper based on linearized aids and greek food data indicate that sample size aggregation schemes and model specification seem to be important factors in the estimation of a theoretically consistent demand system they also show that homogeneity is sensitive to sample size while symmetry is sensitive to the aggregation scheme adopted

the pricing of options on assets with stochastic volatilities one option pricing problem that has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of a european call on an asset that has a stochastic volatility this paper examines this problem the option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price it is found that the black scholes price frequently overprices options and that the degree of overpricing increases with the time to maturity one option pricing problem that has hitherto remained unsolved is the pricing of a european call on a stock that has a stochastic volatility from the work of merton 12 garman 6 and cox ingersoll and ross 3 the differential equation that the option must satisfy is known the solution of this differential equation is independent of risk preferences if a the volatility is a traded asset or b the volatility is uncorrelated with aggregate consumption if either of these conditions holds the risk neutral valuation arguments of cox and ross 4 can be used in a straightfoward way this paper produces a solution in series form for the situation in which the stock price is instantaneously uncorrelated with the volatility we do not assume that the volatility is a traded asset also a constant correlation between the instantaneous rate of change of the volatility and the rate of change of aggregate consumption can be accommodated the option price is lower than the blackscholes b s 1 price when the option is close to being at the money and higher when it is deep in or deep out of the money the exercise prices for which overpricing by b s takes place are within about ten percent of the security price this is the range of exercise prices over which most option trading takes place so we may in general expect the b s price to overprice options this effect is exaggerated as the time to maturity increases one of the most surprising implications of this is that if the b s equation is used to determine the implied volatility of a near the money option the longer the time to maturity the lower the implied volatility numerical solutions for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price are also examined the stochastic volatility problem has been examined by merton 13 geske 7 johnson 10 johnson and shanno 11 eisenberg 5 wiggins 16 and

dual labor markets efficiency wages and search this article presents an equilibrium model of a dual labor market firms are assumed to be identical ex ante and dualism arises endogenously the dual labor market outcome is supported by efficiency wage and search considerations firms choose wage effort requirement packages optimally given optimal search and effort choice by workers and vice versa we prove existence and investigate the occurrence and nature of dual labor market equilibria

interest rate volatility and the term structure a two factor general equilibrium model we develop a two factor general equilibrium model of the term structure the factors are the short term interest rate and the volatility of the short term interest rate we derive closed form expressions for discount bonds and study the properties of the term structure implied by the model the dependence of yields on volatility allows the model to capture many observed properties of the term structure we also derive closed form expressions for discount bond options we use hansen s generalized method of moments framework to test the cross sectional restrictions imposed by the model the tests support the two factor model there are essentially two approaches to the modeling of the term structure of interest rates in continuous time the equilibrium approach pioneered by

the sullying effect of recessions previous work has established that recessions involve a cleansing effect so that in downturns only high productivity jobs remain but empirical evidence suggests job quality is procyclical jobs created in recessions are likely to be low paying and temporary this paper modifies previous models by adding on the job search which leads to an additional sullying effect calibration of the model suggests this offsetting sullying effect is likely to be much larger than the cleansing effect and can account for the procyclical match quality we observe in the data

bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology for contingent claims valuation this paper presents a unifying theory for valuing contingent claims under a stochastic term structure of interest rates the methodology based on the equivalent martingale measure technique takes as given an initial forward rate curve and a family of potential stochastic processee for its subsequent movements a no arbitrage condition restricts this family of processes yielding valuation formulae for interest rate sensitive contingent claims which do not explicitly depend on the market prices of risk examples are provided to illustrate the key results in relation to the term structure of interest rates arbitrage pricing theory has two purposes the first is to price all zero coupon default free bonds of varying maturities from a finite number of economic fundamentals called state variables the second is to price all interest rate sensitive contingent claims taking as given the prices of the zero coupon bonds this paper presents a general theory and a unifying framework for understanding arbitrage pricing theory in this context of which all existing arbitrage pricing models are special cases in particular vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 ball and torous 1983 ho and lee 1986 schaefer and schwartz 1987 and artzner and delbaen 1988 the primary contribution of this paper however is a new methodology for solving the second problem i e the pricing of interest rate sensitive contingent claims given the prices of all zero coupon bonds the methodology is new because i it imposes its stochastic structure directly on the evolution of the forward rate curve ii it does not require an inversion of the term structure to eliminate the market prices of risk from contingent claim values and iii it has a stochastic spot rate process with multiple stochastic factors influencing the term structure the model can be used to consistently price and hedge all contingent claims american or european on the term structure and it is derived from necessary and more importantly sufficient conditions for the absence of arbitrage the arbitrage pricing models of vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 and artzner and delbaen 1988 all require an iformerly titled bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology

cyclical quality adjustment in the labor market 1 introductionthe u s unemployment rate fell to very low levels during the 1990s even more impressively the unemployment rate for minorities and less educated individuals fell disproportionately convergence of relative unemployment rates in expansions and divergence in recessions has been a feature of the u s economy over the last 30 years there are many possible reasons for this feature for example if the costs of hiring and firing less skilled labor are low one would expect these individuals to have very procyclical employment in this paper i explore an alternative model when there is an excess supply of labor high skilled people take jobs that would normally be occupied by less skilled people in expansions the process reverses with less skilled workers getting access to jobs that they would normally not attain i refer to this process as cyclical quality adjustment reder 1955 p 834 was one of the first to discuss how hiring standards adjust to business cycle conditions quality variations in labor markets arise through upgrading and downgrading of members of the labor force relative to the jobs they are to fill when applicants become scarce employers tend to lower the minimum standards upon which they insist as a condition for hiring a worker to fill a particular job and vice versa when applicants become plentiful since then many papers have developed this idea theoretically and many economic commentators appear to share this view of the labor market for example the economic report of the president states that a strong labor market is particularly important to less advantaged groups in the labor market such as workers with less education younger workers racial and ethnic minorities and immigrants when employers find it hard to fill vacancies they are more willing to hire and train workers whom they might pass over when they have fewer openings and an abundance of applicants council of economic advisors 1999 p 103 likewise the expansion during the 1990s spawned many newspaper articles about the improvement in the types of jobs available to less skilled applicants however there is little systematic empirical work about changes in job assignment in the united states over the business cycle the empirical work in this paper seeks to redress this situation cyclical assignment changes are important for many reasons as mentioned earlier job upgrading is a potential explanation for the greater cyclical variation of employment experienced by less skilled workers it is well known that the unemployment rates of less skilled individuals and minorities are more countercyclical relative to more skilled individuals clark and summers 1981 kydland 1984 keane and prasad 1993 hoynes 1999 the standard explanation for this effect is that low ability workers are more likely to be laid off in downturns because training and hiring costs are lower for these workers no commensurate attention has been paid to the issue of how the decision of who to hire changes over the business cycle however assignment models present a natural explanation for the greater procyclicality of employment of the less skilled both the adjustment cost hypothesis and the upgrading hypothesis imply that less skilled workers will have more procyclical employment empirically they are distinguishable because the upgrading explanation implies that jobs obtained by comparable workers should vary systematically over the cycle the adjustment cost hypothesis relates to the composition of those whose jobs are terminated second these mechanisms suggest a reason why wages are particularly procyclical for job changers recent studies using panel data have indicated that the wages of job starters are much more procyclical than the wages of workers who do not change jobs researchers have suggested various explanations for this result beaudry and dinardo 1991 and macleod and malcomson 1993 present contracting models in which the wages of job starters depend on the state of the labor market when they join the firm

why are the wages of job changers so procyclical evidence on wage cyclicality shows job changers have more procyclical wages than job stayers previous work argued this arises because workers gain greater access to jobs in sectors such as manufacturing that offer high wages this article argues that workers who switch jobs in booms enter temporary jobs with unemployment risk and are merely compensated for subsequent losses i demonstrate that the two explanations can be distinguished using the relationship between unemployment insurance and wage cyclicality among job changers the evidence supports the compensation hypothesis that is that job changers might not experience real gains from higher paying jobs in booms

on measuring child costs with applications to poor countries the theoretical basis for measuring child costs is discussed and detailed consideration is given to two straightforward procedures for calculation engel s food share method and rothbarth s adult good method each of these methods embodies different definitions of child costs so that the same empirical evidence can generate quite different estimates depending on the method used it is shown that true costs are generally overstated by engel s method and understated by rothbarth s procedure although the latter unlike the former can provide a sensible starting point for cost measurement our estimates from sri lankan and indonesian data suggest that children cost their parents about 30 40 percent of what they spend on themselves

wage rigidity and job creation recent research in macroeconomics emphasizes the role of wage rigidity in accounting for the volatility of unemployment fluctuations we use worker level data from the cps to measure the sensitivity of wages of newly hired workers to changes in aggregate labor market conditions the wage of new hires unlike the aggregate wage is volatile and responds almost one to one to changes in labor productivity we conclude that there is little evidence for wage rigidity in the data

matching workers and jobs cyclical fluctuations in match quality using national longitudinal survey of youth data on tenure and wages this article analyzes the extent to which the level of job mismatching varies over the business cycle and how it is dealt with by the labor market i find significant cyclical variation in job match quality and an internalization of the variation by the labor market through wages mismatching occurs more during recessions but is primarily captured in starting wages the evidence suggests the cyclical phenomenon is one of general mismatching rather than an increased number of stopgap jobs during recessions

good jobs versus bad jobs this article develops a model of noncompetitive labor markets in which high wage good and low wage bad jobs coexist minimum wages and unemployment benefits shift the composition of employment toward high wage jobs because the composition of jobs in the laissez faire equilibrium is inefficiently biased toward low wage jobs these labor market regulations increase average labor productivity and may improve welfare

real wages over the business cycle evidence from panel data one topic on which keynes did not disagree with classical economists was the cyclical behavior of real wages keynes 1936 as well as various classical writers predicted that real wages should move countercyclically quoting the general theory p 17 in general an increase in employment can only occur through the accompaniment of a decline in real wages thus i am not disputing this vital fact which the classical economists have rightly asserted as indefeasible this prediction is based on the premise of competition and a given short run capital stock increases in employment then correspond to more intensive use of capital and through diminishing product lower real wages for this reason evidence by dunlop 1938 and tarshis 1939 that real wages move procyclically was viewed as paradoxical both dunlop and tarshis based their findings on an observed positive correlation between real and money wages which given the procyclical movement of money wages implies a positive correlation between

identifying volatility risk premia from fixed income asian options abstract fixed income options are frequently adopted by companies to hedge interest rate risk their payoff dependence on the cumulative short term rate makes them particularly informative about interest rate volatility risk based on a joint dataset of bonds and asian interest rate options we study the interrelations between bond and volatility risk premia in a major emerging fixed income market we propose a dynamic term structure model that generates an incomplete market compatible with a preliminary empirical analysis of the dataset approximation formulas for at the money asian option prices avoid the use of computationally intensive fourier transform methods allowing for an efficient implementation of the model the model generates a bond risk premium strongly correlated with a widely accepted emerging market benchmark index embi global and a negative volatility risk premium consistent with the use of asian options as insurance in this market

cyclicality of real wages among young men abstract this paper analyzes the cyclical behavior of real wages received by the young men in the national longitudinal surveys of labor market experience it extends the studies by bils journal of political economy 1985 93 666 689 and tremblay quarterly review of economics and business 1990 30 90 101 by using the full duration of the survey and by examining differences in wage cyclicality across industries and between workers that change employers and those that stay with the same employer

non linearities and equivalence scales this paper focuses on the estimation and testing of equivalence scales in the context of a demand system with nonline ar logarithmic expenditure effects in its budget share equations the authors show that such nonlinearity enables one to identify the scal es without demographic separability restrictions on preferences and to avoid false rejection of the hypothesis that the scales are independ ent of the base utility level the empirical analysis is based on micro data drawn from the u k family expenditure survey copyright 1993 by royal economic society

equivalence scales in a rank 3 demand system abstract in the context of a rank 3 demand system equivalence scales measuring the cost of demographic characteristics independently of the base utility level can be identified from cross section data without demographic separability restrictions although this can also be achieved with a rank 2 demand system that contains a nonlinear log expenditure term in its budget shares tests performed in a nested framework suggest that the rank 3 demand system approach is empirically superior the informative structure of the rank 3 demand system is used to estimate a detailed pattern of demographic costs including the cost of single parenthood and economies of scale within the family

decomposition analysis of consumers demand changes an application to greek consumption data a decomposition analysis for consumer demand functions is developed changes in marshallian demand or expenditure shares functions over time are decomposed into a total substitution effect an income effect and a habit effect this framework is applied to post war greek consumption patterns through a habit persistence version of the quadratic almost ideal demand system quaids it is found that for all commodity categories i e food beverages and tobacco footwear and clothing settling and housing and others the income effect was the main driving force in explaining changes in both quantity demanded and expenditure shares followed by habit and total substitution effects

duality theory for variable costs in joint production duality methods for incomplete systems of consumer demand equations are adapted to the dual structure of variable cost functions in joint production this allows identification of necessary and sufficient restrictions on technology and cost so that con ditional factor demands can be written as functions of input prices fixed inputs and cost these are observable when variable inputs are chosen and committed to production hence the identified restrictions allow ex ante conditional demands to be studied using observable data this class of production technologies is consistent with all von neu mann morgenstern utility functions when ex post production and or output prices are un certain

an empirical comparison of flexible demand system functional forms this paper compares the performance of eight frequently used flexible forms that are either 1 locally flexible 2 effectively globally regular or 3 asymptotically globally flexible results show that the functions with global properties generally perform better particularly those models having asymptotic properties results using us consumption data indicate substitutability among the components of consumption at most data points there is also some interesting substitution volatility around the time of recessions in the usa copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

unspanned stochastic volatility and fixed income derivatives pricing we propose a parsimonious unspanned stochastic volatility model of the term structure and study its implications for fixed income option prices the drift and quadratic variation of the short rate are affine in three state variables the short rate its long term mean and variance which follow a joint markov vector process yet bond prices are exponential affine functions of only two state variables independent of the current interest rate volatility level because this result holds for an arbitrary volatility process such a process can be calibrated to match fixed income derivative prices furthermore this model can be extended by relaxing the time homogeneity to fit any arbitrary term structure in its hjm form this model nests the analogous stochastic equity volatility model of heston 190 heston s l 1993 a closed form solution for options with stochastic volatility review of financial studies 6 327 343 in particular if the volatility process is specified to be affine closed form solutions for interest rate options obtain we propose an efficient algorithm to compute these prices an application using data on caps and floors shows that the model can capture very well the implied black spot volatility surface while simultaneously fitting the observed term structure c 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

consumer behaviour theory and empirical evidence a survey this survey is designed to emphasize the relationship between empirical a nd theoretical considerations in the analysis of consumer behavior a lthough it focuses primarily on analysis at the individual or micro l evel it tries where possible to draw implications for the estimati on of aggregate relationships the importance of micro level analysis stems from the rapid expansion in available panel and survey data se ts this development has generated its own theoretical and empirical issues many of which are raised in this survey copyright 1988 by royal economic society

the dynamics of the forward interest rate curve a formulation with state variables the objective of this paper is twofold first the paper develops a class of models of the term structure of interest rates in the heath jarrow and morton 1992 framework with dynamics characterized by the evolution of a small set of state variables second the paper exploits this characterization of the dynamics of the term structure in an estimation exercise that makes use of both the time series and cross section of bond prices in this way our class of models bridges the gap between traditional models such as cox ingersoll and ross 1985 and vasicek 1977 that emphasize the dynamics of interest rates and the models of heath jarrow and morton 1992 that stress fitting the cross section of bond prices

estimates of the black economy based on consumer demand approaches we propose a consumer demand system approach to estimating the size of the black economy where alternative hypotheses affecting the empirical results can be tested in a nested framework this approach allows for the estimation of the under reporting of household income from various sources dispensing with the need to use arbitrary criteria to classify households by their main source of income it also avoids potential bias in black economy estimates arising from mistaking preference heterogeneity substitution as income effects we illustrate these arguments by estimating the extent to which self employment income in the uk is underreported using parametric and nonparametric techniques the black economy broadly defined as the economic activities that are hidden from public authorities to avoid taxation has recently received increased attention in the literature due to arguments that the rising tax burden and state regulation is driving economic activity underground tanzi and schuknecht 1997 enste and schneider 1998 the usefulness of attempts to estimate the size of the black economy however is a controversial issue the sceptics emphasise the difficulties associated with the precise definition of black economy activities and point to the widely different estimates of the size of these activities resulting from alternative methods dixon 1999 tanzi 1999 thomas 1999 authors approaching the subject in an optimistic frame of mind emphasise positive aspects of estimating the size of the black economy such as the correct measurement of gdp and other macroeconomic variables e g employment and the design of policy and econometric models bhattacharyya 1999 giles 1999 the controversy on estimation issues however does not subtract from the widespread concern about the undesired consequences of the black economy undeclared economic activities reduce the tax base thereby undermining the financing of public goods and social protection a country trying to curtail the loss of tax revenue by raising tax rates can create a vicious cycle as this reinforces the incentive not to declare economic activities to the public authorities high tax rates have a distorting effect resulting in inefficient allocation of resources due to unequal opportunities and willingness to evade in different sectors of the economy and can undermine the ability of the country to compete internationally distortions in the labour market can also arise because individuals working in the black economy may have difficulty in moving from one job to another furthermore in countries where health pension and other social security payments are not universal individuals working in the black economy and their families are outside the

empirical modelling of the aggregation error in the representative consumer model this paper examines different approaches to modelling the aggregation error associated with the representative consumer model each approach is based on an analytical framework intended for modelling aggregate time series data on quantities and prices with potential additional measures of income distribution simple functions that track aggregation error over time are found to perform better than more complex and theoretically sophisticated models an explanation is given based on typical time series characteristics of economic data

quadratic engel curves and consumer demand this paper presents a model of consumer demand that is consistent with the observed expenditure patterns of individual consumers in a long time series of expenditure surveys and is also able to provide a detailed welfare analysis of shifts in relative prices a nonparametric analysis of consumer expenditure patterns suggests that engel curves require quadratic terms in the logarithm of expenditure while popular models of demand such as the translog or the almost ideal demand systems do allow flexible price responses within a theoretically coherent structure they have expenditure share engel curves that are linear in the logarithm of total expenditure we derive the complete class of integrable quadratic logarithmic expenditure share systems a specification from this class is estimated on a large pooled data set of u k households models that fail to account for engel curvature are found ro generate important distortions in the patterns of welfare losses associated with a tax increase

unspanned stochastic volatility evidence from hedging interest rate derivatives most existing dynamic term structure models assume that interest rate derivatives are redundant securities and can be perfectly hedged using solely bonds we find that the quadratic term structure models have serious difficulties in hedging caps and cap straddles even though they capture bond yields well furthermore at the money straddle hedging errors are highly correlated with cap implied volatilities and can explain a large fraction of hedging errors of all caps and straddles across moneyness and maturities our results strongly suggest the existence of systematic unspanned factors related to stochastic volatility in interest rate derivatives markets

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

demographics and demand evaluation of alternative functional forms abstract we evaluate the role of functional form of demographics in demand analysis by proposing the gql unstructured demographically transformed model which nests the barten gorman demographically modified model and popular rank 3 and rank 2 demand systems we use uk individual data and find that the equivalence of the unstructured and barten gorman forms and identification of meaningful equivalence scales depend on the degree of flexibility of the demand system in demographic price and income effects

recent trends in insured and uninsured unemployment is there an explanation this paper explores the recent decline in the fraction of unemployed workers who receive unemployment insurance benefits using march current population surveys we compare the fraction who are potentially eligible for benefits with the fraction who receive them the decline in insured unemployment is almost entirely due to a decline in the early 1980s in the takeup rate for benefits we analyze the determinants of the takeup rate using both aggregated state level data and micro data at least half the decline is due to an increasing share of unemployment in states with lower takeup rates

time changed levy libor market model pricing and joint estimation of the cap surface and swaption cube we propose a novel time changed levy libor london interbank offered rate market model for jointly pricing of caps and swaptions the time changes are split into three components the first component allows matching the volatility term structure the second generates stochastic volatility and the third accommodates for stochastic skew the parsimonious model is flexible enough to accommodate the behavior of both caps and swaptions for the joint estimation we use a comprehensive data set spanning the financial crisis of 2007 2010 we find that even during this period neither market is as fragmented as suggested by the previous literature

estimating welfare aspects of changes in energy prices from preference heterogeneity abstract the european union s energy and climate policy package is expected to cause an increase in end user prices of electricity and fuels this paper assesses the distributional effects of these price increases in cyprus by specifying and estimating a consumer demand system with price heterogeneity between households this novel method allows obtaining robust parameter estimates even when household expenditure surveys are limited as is the case in many european countries the empirical analysis is conducted both conditional on energy related household characteristics and unconditionally we then use the estimated demand system to conduct welfare analysis we find that the rise in energy prices results in welfare losses of eur 101 per household in 2009 prices in year 2020 or a nationwide welfare loss of more than eur 2009 33 million price increases will be regressive and will affect small and urban households more strongly than the rest of the population furthermore we find that the largest proportion of welfare loss is due to loss of household s income purchasing power caused by higher energy prices while the changes in relative prices induce deadweight loss which is a small part of welfare loss because of the limited substitutability of energy with other goods

nesting quadratic logarithmic demand systems abstract we propose a new generalised rank 3 demand system which nests all known and new rank 3 and rank 2 demand systems derived from the quadratic logarithmic ql cost function we investigate its statistical adequacy against commonly encountered alternatives using uk household data

a system of demand equations satisfying effectively global regularity conditions a parametric specification of an indirect utility function in terms oaf expenditure and two unit cost functions is proposed specification of these unit cost functions in terms of regular functions leads to the notion of an effectively globally regular system of demand equations that is a system of demand equations that is regular over a cone in expenditure price space and for which the regular region includes all points in any given sample and all values of nominal expenditure and prices generating higher values of real expenditure than the sample minimum this general model nests a number of popular demand systems such as the linear expenditure system as special cases an empirical application illustrates some of these ideas copyright 1996 by mit press

spending on alcohol evidence from the family expenditure survey 1970 1983 this paper reports on the investigation of a model of the determination of the share of household expenditure on alcohol using fes data for the united kingdom 1970 83 i e a time series of cross sections the authors pay special attention to the occurrence of zero expenditure variations in characteristics across the population and the modeling and interpretation of the stochastic term this term is modeled using the gamma distribution replacing the normal in tobit estimated parameters indicate strong positive skewness interactions between household characteristics and expenditure propensities are important copyright 1990 by royal economic society

latent separability grouping goods without weak separability this paper develops a new concept of separability with overlapping groups latent separability this is shown to provide a useful empirical and theoretical framework for investigating the grouping of goods and prices it is a generalization of weak separability in which goods are allowed to enter more than one group and where the composition of groups is identified by the choice of group specific exclusive goods latent separability is shown to be equivalent to weak separability in latent rather than purchased goods and provides a relationship between separability and household production theory for the popular class of linear almost ideal and translog demand models and their generalizations we provide a method for choosing the number of homothetic separable groups a detailed method for exploring the composition of the separable groups is also presented these methods are applied to a long time series of british individual household data on the consumption of twenty two nondurable and service goods

term structure movements and pricing interest rate contingent claims this paper derives an arbitrage free interest rate movements model ar model this model takes the complete term structure as given and derives the subsequent stochastic movement of the term structure such that the movement is arbitrage free we then show that the ar model can be used to price interest rate contingent claims relative to the observed complete term structure of interest rates this paper also studies the behavior and the economics of the model our approach can be used to price a broad range of interest rate contingent claims including bond options and callable bonds

how revealing is revealed preference this lecture address the following two key criticisms of the empirical application of revealed preference theory when the rp conditions do not reject they do not provide precise predictions and when they do reject they do not help characterize the nature of irrationality or the degree direction of changing tastes recent developments in the application of rp theory are shown to have rendered these criticisms unfounded a powerful test of rationality is available that also provides a natural characterization of changing tastes tight bounds on demand responses and on the welfare costs of relative price and tax changes are also available and are shown to work well in practice

comparisons of poverty across periods significance of distributional effects of prices abstract this paper identifies flexible scales from two cross sections of fes data capturing the distributional effects of inflation poverty rates based on the flexible and simple per capita modified oecd deflators reveal different trends in poverty among households and children

on estimating the cost of characteristics indices from consumer demand analysis we examine the information content of relative equivalence scales using a multiperiod framework and argue that in the absence of independence of base ib these scales can be uniquely identified from demand analysis only when the transformations of preferences through time are the same for all household types a property termed as intertemporally invariant base iib utility restrictions imposed by iib on conditional demands are tested empirically and found rejected within the context of a rank 3 demand system applied to individual household data drawn from the u k family expenditure survey 1970 86 welfare implications of false iib assumptions are also empirically investigated jel classification d1 a propos de l estimation du cout des indices caracteristiques a partir de l analyse de la demande des consommateur ce memoire examine le contenu informationnel des echelles d equivalence relative en utilisant un cadre d analyse sur plusieurs periodes et suggere que en l absence d une independance de la base ib ces echelles peuvent etre identifiees d une maniere univoque seulement si les transformations de preferences dans le temps sont les memes pour tous les types de menages on nomme cette propriete utilite de base invariante dans le temps iib les restrictions verifiables imposees par iib sur les demandes conditionnelles sont verifiees empiriquement et sont rejetees dans le contexte d un systeme de demande de rang 3 applique aux donnees des menages individuels dans une etude des depenses des menages de la grande bretagne 1970 86 les implications de faux postulats iib sont analysees empiriquement

do bonds span the fixed income markets theory and evidence for unspanned stochastic volatility most term structure models assume bond markets are complete that is that all fixed income derivatives can be perfectly replicated using solely bonds however we find that in practice swap rates have limited explanatory power for returns on at the money straddles portfolios mainly exposed to volatility risk we term this empirical feature unspanned stochastic volatility usv while usv can be captured within an hjm framework we demonstrate that bivariate models cannot exhibit usv we determine necessary and sufficient conditions for trivariate markov affine systems to exhibit usv for such usv models bonds alone may not be sufficient to identify all parameters rather derivatives are needed

nonparametric engel curves and revealed preference this paper applies revealed preference theory to the nonparametric statistical analysis of consumer demand knowledge of expansion paths is shown to improve the power of nonparametric tests of revealed preference the tightest bounds on indifference surfaces and welfare measures are derived using an algorithm for which revealed preference conditions are shown to guarantee convergence nonparametric engel curves are used to estimate expansion paths and provide a stochastic structure within which to examine the consistency of household level data and revealed preference theory an application is made to a long time series of repeated cross sections from the family expenditure survey for britain the consistency of these data with revealed preference theory is examined for periods of consistency with revealed preference tight bounds are placed on true cost of living indices

inter industry mobility and the cyclical upgrading of labor we investigate whether a market clearing model is consistent with industry employment and wage patterns related to the cyclical upgrading of labor we demonstrate that roy s 1951 market clearing

interpreting panel data on job tenure tenure responses in the panel study of income dynamics psid and the national longitudinal surveys are often inconsistent with calendar time these inconsistencies pose special problems in the psid because job changes cannot be identified directly so researchers must infer them from error ridden tenure data we use alternative rules for partitioning psid data into jobs and then estimate several wage and mobility models to assess the sensitivity of parameter estimates to the partitioning method we also assess the importance of replacing raw tenure data with imputed measures that are internally consistent

household equivalence scales and welfare comparisons abstract the ratio of cost functions of different households facing the same prices and attaining the same utility level is a true cost of demographic characteristics index this index is independent of a base level of income or utility ib if and only if it equals a ratio of household equivalence scales that are themselves ib applied cost index and equivalence scales specifications are usually ib this paper describes the general restrictions on cost functions and social welfare functions required for ib scales and for their use in welfare analysis

a theory of dual labor markets with application to industrial policy discrimination and keynesian unemployment this paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers need to motivate workers in order to elicit effort from their workers employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage this changes fundamentally the character of labor markets the model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena it provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates it also can provide the basis for a theory of occupational segregation and discrimination that will not be eroded by market forces finally the model provides the basis for a theory of involuntary unemployment

tax reform and welfare measurement do we need demand system estimation the exact measurement of the welfare costs of tax and price reform requires a detailed knowledge of individual preferences typically first order approximations of welfare costs are calculated avoiding detailed knowledge of substitution effects the authors derive second order approximations which unlike first order approximations require knowledge of the distribution of substitution elasticities this paper asks to what extent simple approximations can be used to measure the welfare costs of tax reform and evaluates the magnitude of the biases for a plausible size tax reform in the authors empirical examples first order approximations display systematic biases second order approximations always work well

the effects of male and female labor supply on commodity demands we examine the effects of male and female labor supply on household demands and present a simple and robust test for the separability of commodity demands from labor supply using data on individual households from six years of the uk fes we estimate a demand system for seven goods which includes hours and participation dummies as conditioning variables allowance is made for the possible endogeneity of these conditioning labor supply variables we find that separability is rejected furthermore we present evidence that ignoring the effects of labor supply leads to bias in the parameter estimates

flexible and semiflexible consumer demands with quadratic engel curves in this paper we introduce three flexible consumer demand systems in which expenditures on goods are quadratic functions of income we view these alternatives as to the demand systems used heretofore in the empirical modeling of rank three demands namely those in which expenditure shares are quadratic functions of the logarithm of income curvature conditions required by theory can be imposed locally during the estimation for each and a semiflexible version can be estimated for illustrative purposes we estimate various forms of two of the systems using canadian data on seven categories of goods for the period 1947 to 1995

unspanned stochastic volatility and the pricing of commodity derivatives commodity derivatives are becoming an increasingly important part of the global derivatives market here we develop a tractable stochastic volatility model for pricing commodity derivatives the model features unspanned stochastic volatility quasi analytical prices of options on futures contracts and dynamics of the futures curve in terms of a low dimensional affine state vector we estimate the model on nymex crude oil derivatives using an extensive panel data set of 45 517 futures prices and 233 104 option prices spanning 4082 business days we find strong evidence for two predominantly unspanned volatility factors jel g13

on the job search and cyclical unemployment crowding out vs vacancy effects incorporating on the job search otjs into a real business cycle model has been shown to increase the cyclical volatility of unemployment using a particularly simple model of otjs we show that the increased search of employed workers during expansions induces firms to open more vacancies but also crowds out unemployed workers in the job search resulting in an ambiguous overall effect on unemployment volatility we show analytically and numerically that the difference between the employer s share of the match surplus with an employed versus an unemployed job seeker determines the degree to which otjs increases unemployment volatility we use this result to re consider some related papers of otjs and explain the amplification of volatility they obtain finally we show that a plausible calibration of the otjs model allows us to reproduce most significant features of the us labor data

the rank and model specification of demand systems an empirical analysis using united states microdata a rank three demand system is estimated with united states consumer expenditure survey microdata a unique price data set is also used which permits the analysis of effects of systematic errors in price variables it is found that errors in price variables bias test results for the rank three hypothesis in particular towards rejection other test results are affected to a lesser extent estimating smaller systems of demand equations even when conditioning on excluded goods yields significantly different results another important conclusion is that model specification is statistically significantly different for households of varying family sizes and housing tenure statuses jel classifications c31 d12 le rang et la specification du modele des systemes de demande une analyse empirique utilisant des microdonnees americaines on calibre un systeme de demande de rang trois a l aide de microdonnees americaines tirees de la united states consumer expenditures survey un ensemble unique de prix est utilise afin de permettre l analyse des effets d erreurs systematiques dans les variables de prix il appert que les erreurs dans les variables de prix distorsionnent les resultats du test de l hypothese de rang trois en faveur d un rejet d autres resultats de tests sont affectes a un moindre degre si l on calibre de plus petits systemes d equations de demande meme en posant des conditions sur des biens exclus des resultats qui different de maniere significative s ensuivent une autre conclusion importante est que la specification du modele est differente de maniere statistiquement significative pour les menages selon la taille de la famille et le statut domiciliaire

the unemployment volatility puzzle is wage stickiness the answer i discuss the failure of the canonical search and matching model to match the cyclical volatility in the job finding rate i show that job creation in the model is influenced by wages in new matches i summarize microeconometric evidence and find that wages in new matches are volatile and consistent with the model s key predictions therefore explanations of the unemployment volatility puzzle have to preserve the cyclical volatility of wages i discuss a modification of the model based on fixed matching costs that can increase cyclical unemployment volatility and is consistent with wage flexibility in new matches

single factor heath jarrow morton term structure models based on markov spot interest rate dynamics this paper considers the class of heath jarrow morton term structure models where the spot interest rate is markov and the term structure at time t is a function of time maturity and the spot interest rate at time t a representation for this class of models is derived and i show that the functional forms of the forward rate volatility structure and the initial forward rate curve cannot be arbitrarily chosen i provide necessary and sufficient conditions indicating which combinations of these functional forms are allowable i also derive a partial differential equation representation of the term structure dynamics that does not require explicit modeling of both the market price of risk and the drift term for the spot interest rate process using the analysis presented in this paper a class of intertemporal term structure models is derived

the match quality gains from unemployment insurance this paper assesses the benefits of unemployment insurance ui by measuring its effect in match quality we note that ui generosity should affect the decision to match or not and should therefore have some effect on match quality using nlsy data we analyze the relationship between postunemployment job tenure and measures of the state level ui generosity and the unemployment rate at the time the job is started we show that greater ui generosity leads to longer job tenure furthermore we find some evidence that this effect is more pronounced during busts ui having a limited dampening effect on the cyclical variation in match quality

cyclical fluctuations and sectoral reallocation evidence from the psid abstract this paper documents the correlation between permanent sectoral reallocation and the business cycle using data from the michigan panel study of income dynamics we find that the outflow of workers from goods to services accelerates during recessions the flow from services to stable employment in surables accelerates during booms we also document the contribution of sectoral reallocation to total unemployment permanent switchers account for about a quarter of the total weeks of unemployment during booms this proportion rises to nearly 40 duing recessions

an exact bond option formula this paper derives a closed form solution for european options on pure discount bonds assuming a mean reverting gaussian interest rate model as in vasicek 8 the formula is extended to european options on discount bond portfolios

unspanned stochastic volatility in affine models evidence from eurodollar futures and options unspanned stochastic volatility usv refers to the inability of bonds to replicate volatility sensitive derivative securities affine term structure models require special restrictions on the parameters to exhibit usv we use a joint eurodollar futures and options data set to estimate affine three factor models with and without usv restrictions the unrestricted model captures prices of futures and options well option pricing errors are much larger in the usv model the usv model is rejected in favor of the unrestricted model based on the likelihood ratio and wald tests we use the implications of the unrestricted model as a benchmark for understanding the extant evidence that favors usv specifically we replicate extant tests in samples simulated from the unrestricted model we show that none of the existing findings contradict the model without usv restrictions

a trigonometric flexible consumer demand system this paper proposes the first ever empirical specification of a trigonometric demand system the new model is potentially useful because of some attractive features it is flexible amenable to exact aggregation over consumers possessed of trigonometric engel curves which can oscillate and able to have an unusually large regular region with comparisons between the new model and two other popular models an illustration is given for japanese demand for non durables and services the new model shows relatively gentle engel curves with an inflection point on each of them which seem reasonable given that aggregate expenditure is used in parameter estimation jel classification c51 d12 un systeme trigonometrique flexible de demande des consommateurs ce memoire propose une premiere specification empirique d un systeme de demande trigonometrique le nouveau modele est potentiellement utile a cause de certaines caracteristiques interessantes il est flexible se prete a l agregation exacte des consommateurs donne lieu a des courbes d engels trigonometriques qui peuvent osciller et couvrir une region reguliere singulierement vaste a partir de comparaisons entre le nouveau modele et deux autres modeles populaires on illustre ces avantages dans le cas de la demande japonaise pour les biens non durables et les services le nouveau modele revele des courbes d engels relativement douces avec un point d inflexion en chacune d elle ce qui semble raisonnable compte tenu du fait que la depense agregee est utilisee dans la calibration des parametres

unemployment insurance in the united states layoff incentives and cross subsidies we survey unemployment insurance ui in the united states and provide new evidence on the ui payroll tax most ui receipt is due to firms that pay part of the ui costs of their layoffs but weak experience rating leads most firms to pay considerably less than the full costs industries consistently receiving subsidies from the ui system are construction manufacturing and mining finally a large fraction of layoffs resulting in payment of ui are made by firms that are not charged for the costs of the claim because they have employed the individual for less than 2 quarters

real wages and the business cycle the objectives of this review are threefold 1 to characterize the empirical literature on the cyclical behavior of real wages 2 to identify the sources of the differences in results across studies and 3 to enumerate key factors that determine the cyclicality of real wages given a host of measurement and methodological issues drawing firm conclusions is difficult but several generalizations can be made the estimated cyclicality of real wages depends crucially on the time period of analysis and the choice of whether to examine the production or the consumption wage composition effects play an important but complicated role as well

cost of characteristics indices and household equivalence scales abstract the ratio of cost functions of demographically different households is a true cost of demographic characteristics index this index is independent of a base level of income or utility ib if and only if it equals a ratio of household equivalence scales that are themselves ib this paper analyzes the restrictions on cost functions and commodity specific equivalence scales required for the existence of ib scales and indices since scales can be price dependent the restrictions on behavior are far less severe than for ordinary engel style household scales connections between ib scales and other techniques for incorporating demographic effects into demand systems are described

another look at models of the short term interest rate the short term rate of interest is fundamental to much of theoretical and empirical finance yet no consensus has emerged on the dynamics of its volatility we show that models which parameterize volatility only as a function of interest rate levels tend to over emphasize the sensitivity of volatility to levels and fail to model adequately the serial correlation in condi tional variances on the other hand serial correlation based models like garch models fail to capture adequately the relationship between interest rate levels and volatility we introduce and test a new class of models for the dynamics of short term interest rate volatility which allows volatility to depend on both interest rate levels and information shocks two important conclusions emerge first the sensitivity of interest rate volatility to interest rate levels has been overstated in the literature while this relationship is important adequately modeling volatility as a function of unexpected information shocks is also important sec ond we conclude that the volatility processes in many existing theoretical models of interest rates are misspecified and suggest new paths toward improving the theory

what do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data the aim of this paper is to assess the importance of using micro level data in the econometric analysis of consumer demand to do this we utilize a time series of repeated cross sections covering some 4 000 households in each of 15 years employing a number of different aggregation procedures we conclude that aggregate data alone are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of structural price and income coefficients however once certain aggregation factors as well as trend and seasonal components are included an aggregate model is not necessarily outperformed across all demand equations in terms of forecasting ability jel d12 c52 c31 the purpose of this paper is to develop a complete consumer demand system based on a time series of individual household data and to use it to measure the biases introduced into the study of consumer de mand behavior when aggregate data are used in place of the appropriate microeco nomic data we assess the suitability of ag gregate data through the impact on income and price elasticities and by evaluating the ability of both micro and aggregate based models to forecast aggregate consumer de mand the biases introduced by the use of aggregate data depend upon the way that household characteristics interact with in come and price effects and on departures of demand systems from linearity we explore the structure of microeconomic demand sys tems and the role of household characteris tics in the behavior of consumer demand both for the light this may shed on the pattern of future demands and for the im plications this behavior has for issues of aggregation consumer demand patterns typically found in micro data sets vary considerably across households with different household characteristics and with different levels of income we model this variability by making intercept and slope parameters in the budget share equations of our demand sys tem depend on household characteristics and by allowing for nonlinear total log expenditure terms in fact in theory consistent demand systems it is total ex penditure rather than disposable income that is allocated across goods we find that this general framework leads to a well specified data coherent demand system which is a quadratic extension of the popu lar almost ideal model of angus s deaton and john muellbauer 1980 the micro level estimates are shown to be sensitive to the treatment of endogeneity of total expen diture and to the specification of interaction terms with household characteristics in ad dition this specification is also shown to possess many attractive features for the evaluation of aggregate models

pricing interest rate derivatives a general approach the relationship between affine stochastic processes and bond pricing equations in exponential term structure models has been well established we connect this result to the pricing of interest rate derivatives if the term structure model is exponential affine then there is a linkage between the bond pricing solution and the prices of many widely traded interest rate derivative securities our results apply to m factor processes with n diffusions and l jump processes the pricing solutions require at most a single numerical integral making the model easy to implement we discuss many options that yield solutions using the methods of the article

unemployment fluctuations match quality and the wage cyclicality of new hires we revisit the issue of the high cyclicality of wages of new hires we show that after controlling for composition effects likely involving procyclical upgrading of job match quality the wages of new hires are no more cyclical than those of existing workers the key implication is that the sluggish behaviour of wages for existing workers is a better guide to the cyclicality of the marginal cost of labour than is the high measured cyclicality of new hires wages unadjusted for composition effects key to our identification is distinguishing between new hires from unemployment versus those who are job changers we argue that to a reasonable approximation the wages of the former provide a composition free estimate of the wage flexibility while the same is not true for the latter we then develop a quantitative general equilibrium model with sticky wages via staggered contracting on the job search and heterogeneous match quality and show that it can account for both the panel data evidence and aggregate evidence on labour market volatility

changing consequences of job separation in the united states using the panel study of income dynamics the author examines the consequences of job loss between the periods 1976 81 and 1986 91 he finds stability in the overall incidence of job separation but a statistically significant increase in the incidence of involuntary job loss relative to quits for older workers he also finds that the consequences of involuntary job loss worsened the reemployment rate of workers who experienced involuntary job loss dropped from 67 in 1976 81 to 62 in 1986 91 and among those who found new jobs the odds of receiving a large wage cut rose from 9 in 1976 81 to 17 in 1986 91

pricing interest rate derivative securities this article shows that the one state variableinterest rate models of vasicek 1977 and cox ingersoll and ross 1985b can be extended sothat they are consistent with both the current termstructure of interest rates and either the currentvolatilities of all spot interest rates or the currentvolatilities of all forward interest rates theextended vasicek model is shown to be very tracta ble analytically the article compares option pricesobtained using the extended vasicek model withthose obtained using a number of other models