why europe a critique of institutionalist and culturalist economics abstract economists have recently started to discuss the roles of institutions and cultural beliefs in explaining the performance of civilizations this paper investigates two views institutionalist economics and culturalist economics with regard to the question of why europe rose economically a few centuries ago while other regions of the world lagged behind these two views share a common platform raised on two pillars first both regard institutions beliefs as extra economic as primordial entities that ultimately stand independent of economic performance second both regard economic performance as fully determined by institutions beliefs i e normative causality in the sense that institutions beliefs determine performance douglass north s 2005 analysis of economic performance for example is based on both pillars concerning the primordial pillar he attributes the mystery of the rise of europe to primordial beliefs viz christian dogma and english individualism concerning the normative pillar he presumes that such beliefs have almost one to one correspondence with economic performance this paper though maintains that the two pillars primordial analysis and normative causality are rather fragile advocates of the first pillar fail to recognize that institutions beliefs are endogenous advocates of the second pillar fail to recognize that institutions beliefs can give rise to diverse economic performances

new evidence of the impact of dividend taxation and on the identity of the marginal investor this paper examines the impact of a major change in dividend taxation introduced in the united kingdom in july 1997 the reform was structured in such a way that the immediate impact fell almost entirely on the largest investor class in the united kingdom namely pension funds we find significant changes in the valuation of dividend income after the reform in particular for high yielding companies these results provide strong support for the hypothesis that taxation affects the valua tion of companies and that pension funds were the effective marginal investors for high yielding companies

ex day behavior tax or short term trading effects this study examines the behavior of share prices around the ex dividend dates before and after the introduction of the 1988 income and corporation taxes act that reduced substantially the tax differential between dividends and capital gains in the united kingdom we find that in the pre 1988 period when the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains is high ex day returns are positive and significant in contrast in the post 1988 period ex day returns are in most cases negative and insignificant further analysis reveals that while ex day returns are significantly related to dividend yield and to the length of the settlement period they are not affected by the commonly used measures of transaction costs such as the bid ask spread and trading volume or by the day of week month of the year type of dividend distribution or number of days to the actual receipt of the cash dividend we conclude that taxation affects significantly ex day share prices in the previous studies have documented that the risk adjusted abnormal returns on the ex dividend dates are positive and significantly related to the dividend yield the interpretation of these findings is however controversial the question relates to what category of investors sets ex day prices elton and

the ex dividend day behavior of canadian stock prices tax changes and clientele effects with some simple assumptions the ex dividend day price drop and the associated dividend can be used to measure the market s marginal tax rate previous research has estimated the implied tax rate for the u s this paper extends the analysis to canada where the tax treatment of dividends and capital gains is completely different from that in the u s the paper also presents estimates from 1970 80 to include four distinct periods when the tax treatment was different hence we include an implied test of market efficiency as well as those for the relevance of taxes and the existence of tax based dividend clienteles

dividend stripping risk exposure and the effect of the 1984 tax reform act on the ex dividend day behavior this article investigates the importance of risk exposure and the effects of the 1984 tax reform act on the ex dividend day behavior the tax reform appears to have inhibited short term trading activities by increasing the risk exposure of incorporated traders moreover stocks for which existing listed options permitted the reduction of risk through hedged dividend stripping strategies were affected much less from the new tax code than their nonoptionable counterparts this implies that risk affects investors dividend yield choice and that the ex dividend day behavior may be caused in part by the existence of risk premia copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

energy aesthetics and knowledge in complex economic systems it is argued that the fact that economic systems are dissipative structures must be taken fully into account in economics if we are to understand the nature of the economic ecological interface and how to deal with emergent environmental problems such as global warming such problems are a product of economic growth which is widely accepted to be the outcome of the acquisition and application of knowledge drawing upon disparate literatures within and outside economics it is argued that economic growth should be more properly viewed as the outcome of a co evolutionary process that involves the autocatalytic interaction of new knowledge and access of increasing amounts of free energy to do increasingly specialized forms of work specifically the relevance of the energy hypothesis associated with erwin schrodinger and more recently revived by eric schneider and his collaborators is assessed this hypothesis states that all dissipative structures have as their primary objective the reduction of accessible free energy gradients it is concluded that such a hypothesis cannot be rejected in the context of economic behaviour and that this opens up an important research agenda for economists

a long commodity cycle model of the world economy over a century and a half making bricks with little straw abstract this paper explores the world business cycle using unfiltered data from 1870 and looks for a theory that could account for the long wave commodity cycle in the world economy we build a simple dsge model that includes a long time to build constraint in the commodity sector we find that this model can produce long cycles in output and commodity prices as introduced by kontradieff 1925 and schumpeter 1934 our findings show that these long business cycles are produced by the long gestation of commodity capacity which causes very large swings in commodity prices

the ex dividend day behavior of option prices a security purchased at the opening of trade on the ex dividend day does not include a claim to the dividend announced earlier yet if purchased on the previous day the last cum dividend day it does thus the price of a security that goes exdividend is expected to drop in this time interval the expected price drop around the ex dividend day has been compared to the dividend per share in various past studies campbell and beranek 1955 durand and may 1960 elton and gruber 1970 kalay 1982 the documented behavior of stock prices around the ex dividend day seems to be consistent with market efficiency that is it provides no profit opportunities an interesting question that arises is whether the discontinuity in the stock price carries over to call options on the stock with similar implications for market efficiency because call options are unprotected against payment of dividends their pricing has to take into account the change in the value of the underlying asset around the ex dividend day this point has been recognized in the literature since it is well known that the price of a share of common stock is expected to drop around the ex dividend day since call options written on such underlying shares are not protected against dividend payment a question arises as to the behavior of the prices of call options around the exdividend day assuming a rational exercise policy on the part of investors it can be demonstrated that the price behavior of american call options around the ex dividend day should not be different from that on any other arbitrarily chosen day however our empirical analysis using both parametric and nonparametric methods indicates that perhaps because of a wrong exercise policy on the part of investors abnormal returns are observed in certain cases this finding casts some doubt on the presumption of efficiency of the american call option market around the exdividend day we wish to thank john long stanley kon clifford smith jeremy bulow and harry friedman for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper we are also indebted to david cho and elli kraizberg for their assistance finally the financial support of the salomon brothers center for the study of financial institutions new york university is gratefully acknowledge

taxes and dividends the uk evidence abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on the simultaneous effects of both corporation and personal income taxes on dividend payment adjustments and on the behaviour of share prices on the ex dividend dates the results show that companies set their dividend policies to minimise their tax liability and to maximise the after tax return of their shareholders in particular firms that are unable to deduct the advanced corporation tax from their tax liability are found to pay low dividends in addition consistent with the tax hypothesis we find that the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains results in a decrease in ex day share prices by significantly less than the amount of the dividend there is no evidence of a tax induced dividend clientele

canada s dual class shares further evidence on the market value of cash dividends the canada income tax act of 1971 permitted canadian corporations to create two classes of equity one paying ordinary cash income and the other paying capital gains income cash paying shares have often sold at a premium empirical results indicate that the premium is largely explained by the relative value of the dividends paid and by costs imposed on investors by stock dividend payment and share conversion procedures premiums for a few firms also reflect the relative liquidity of the two classes of shares no evidence exists that investors prefer cash income to equal amounts of capital gains within the last fifteen years over twenty corporations listed on canadian stock exchanges have issued two classes of equity one paying cash dividend income and the other paying capital gains each share is convertible one for one into shares of the other class has equal claim to the issuing firm s profits and receives distributions on the same date as the other class thus each is equally subject to the uncertainty of the firm s operating cash flows these unusual securities are uniquely suited to a study of an important unresolved issue in finance the effect of dividend policy on firm value long 6 and shefrin and statman 11 indicate that claims to cash income may sell for a premium in contrast elton and gruber 3 poterba 9 and other authors present evidence that suggests that capital gains are preferred if markets were frictionless and information were without cost the price history as opposed to the conversion history of canada s dual class shares would be of no use to the study of this issue the actions of traders using the conversion option would ensure that the class a and class b shares of a particular company sell for the same price however positive transactions costs permit differences between prices of the two classes the relative expected value of distributions the relative market value of equal amounts of the two types of distributions and relative

time variation of ex dividend day stock returns and corporate dividend capture a reexamination this paper documents some empirical facts about ex day abnormal returns to high dividend yield stocks that are potentially subject to corporate dividend capture we find that average abnormal ex dividend day returns are uniformly negative in each year after the introduction of negotiated commission rates and that time variation in ex day returns during the negotiated commission rates era is consistent with corporate tax based dividend capture ex day returns are more negative when the tax advantage to corporate dividend capture is greatest and more positive when increases in transaction costs and risk reduce incentives to engage in corporate tax based dividend capture copyright the american finance association 2000

the logic of financial westernization in the middle east abstract in the 19th century financial reforms in the middle east included the legalization of interest the establishment of secular courts and banking regulations all based on western models exploring why foreign institutions were transplanted this article shows that islamic law blocked evolutionary paths that might have generated financial modernization through indigenous means sources of rigidity included 1 the islamic law of commercial partnerships which limited enterprise continuity 2 the islamic inheritance system which restrained capital accumulation 3 the waqf system which inhibited resource pooling and 4 islam s traditional aversion to the concept of legal personhood which hampered private organizations

the path from ethnic inequality to development the intermediary role of institutional quality abstract the influence of ethnic and income disparities in terms of their impacts on nations economic development have long intrigued researchers on the empirical side recent developments in creating a composite measure of income inequality based on ethnic diversity have shown a negative impact of ethnic inequality on economic development this approach while insightful ignores the crucial role of governmental institutions to account for this we introduce the intermediary role of an important dimension of institutional quality proxied by corruption and test employing mediation analysis whether it is a significant mediator in the effect of ethnic inequality on economic development using a cross section of data on a large sample of nations results show a significant negative impact of ethnic inequality on development that is indeed channeled through corruption specifically findings suggest that about two thirds of ethnic inequality s influence on economic development flows through corruption whereas only one third of the total influence is directly ascribed to ethnic inequality thus policy efforts to control ethnic and income disparities that do not take account of the influence of corruption are unlikely to attain development goals

new evidence that taxes affect the valuation of dividends this paper uses british data to examine the effects of dividend taxes on investors relative valuation of dividends and capital gains british data offer great potential to illuminate the dividends and taxes question since there have been two radical changes and several minor reforms in british dividend tax policy during the last 30 years studying the relationship between dividends and stock price movements during different tax regimes offers an ideal controlled experiment for assessing the effects of taxes on investors valuation of dividends using daily data on a small sample of firms and monthly data on a much broader sample we find clear evidence that taxes affect the equilibrium relationship between dividend yields and market returns these findings suggest that taxes are important determinants of security market equilibrium and deepen the puzzle of why firms pay dividends financial economists have long been puzzled by corporate dividend behavior many individual investors should value a dollar of corporate dividends less than a dollar of corporate retentions because the former gives rise to greater tax liabilities corporations however face equal costs of paying out dividends and retaining earnings miller and modigliani 31 demonstrated that in the absence of taxes dividend policy should have no effect on share valuation if dividends are tax penalized however a value maximizing firm should pay no dividends widespread dividend payments to taxable investors are therefore surprising in 1981 dividend tax revenues in the united states were estimated to exceed 20 billion dollars indeed some have interpreted the large volume of dividends paid as evidence against the rational behavior postulates typically used by economists the dividend question has stimulated a large theoretical and empirical literature concerned with the qluestion of investors valuation of dividends in particular the question of how taxes affect the market valuation of dividends has generated considerable controversy numerous studies including auerbach 2 litzenberger and ramaswamy 24 26 morgan 34 and rosenberg and marathe

ex dividend day stock price behavior the case of the 1986 tax reform act this paper analyzes the behavior of stock prices around ex dividend days after the implementation of the 1986 tax reform act that dramatically reduced the difference between the tax treatment of realized long term capital gains and dividend income in 1987 and completely eliminated the differential in 1988 we show that this tax change had no effect on the ex dividend stock price behavior which is consistent with the hypothesis that long term individual investors have no significant effect on ex day stock prices during this time period the results indicate that the activity of short term traders and corporate traders dominates the price determination on the ex day

the value of dividend imputation tax credits in australia abstract a dividend imputation tax system provides shareholders with a credit for corporate tax paid that can be used to offset personal tax on dividend income this paper shows how to infer the value of imputation tax credits from the prices of derivative securities that are unique to australian retail markets we also test whether a tax law amendment that was designed to prevent the trading of imputation credits affected their economic value before the amendment tax credits were worth up to 50 of face value in large high yielding companies but subsequently it is difficult to detect any value at all

portfolio rebalancing and the effective taxation of dividends and capital gains following the tax reform act of 1986 abstract the tax reform act tra of 1986 among other things equalized the nominal taxation of dividend and capital gains income the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that ordinary investors rebalanced their portfolio holdings in response to the new taxes such rebalancing appears to have concentrated on liquid stocks indicating that transaction costs are an important consideration for ordinary investors involved in restructuring their portfolio holdings the tax clientele relationships that existed prior to the new act were distorted temporarily but have reappeared by 1988 interestingly investors post reform effective tax rates still give a preference to capital gains as they did prior to the tax reform

the ex dividend day behavior of stock prices a re examination of the clientele effect a comment in a recent article in this journal kalay 5 has written an extensive comment on our 1970 article 2 concerning marginal stockholder tax rates and the clientele effect while we are flattered that our article is viewed of sufficient importance to gain this attention 12 years after it was written we do have reservations about kalay s comments we are principally concerned with his interpretations of relevant transaction costs and the role they play in setting equilibrium

the ex dividend day behavior of stock prices the case of japan we provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of stock price behavior around the ex dividend day in japan we find that prices rise on the ex day and that dividend related tax effects appear to be secondary returns around ex dividend days are dominated by the proximity of many ex days to the fiscal year end excess returns of 1 percent which are independent of any dividend related considerations are higher than round trip transaction costs on medium sized transactions prices seem to imply selling pressure before and buying pressure at the start of the new fiscal year these trading patterns appear to be motivated by intercorporate manipulative trading around the end of the firms fiscal year which are unrelated to dividends article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

reduction of constraints on arbitrage trading and market efficiency an examination of ex day returns in hong kong after introduction of electronic settlement previous research documents positive ex dividend day returns in excess of one percent in the unique institutional setting of hong kong where neither dividends nor capital gains are taxed short term arbitrage trades around the ex day were hampered by physical settlement procedures after the recent switch to an electronic settlement system which enables such trades ex day abnormal returns have declined to an insignificant 0 17 percent this drop is more pronounced for high yield stocks which are more likely to attract dividend capture trading the evidence points to the crucial role of short term traders in ensuring the pricing efficiency of financial markets the role of short term traders in financial markets is a matter of considerable controversy the debate on this issue has heightened in the wake of the recent asian currency crisis which some governments blamed on the activities of short term traders critics contend that short term traders engage in speculation leading to excessive and debilitating volatility in market prices others argue that short term traders perform a useful role by increasing valuable liquidity berkman and eleswarapu 1998 report that regulatory changes on the bombay stock exchange curbing short term trading had a measurably adverse impact on asset values supporters of short term traders also argue that these traders make a key contribution to the efficiency of financial markets by constantly scouring the markets for arbitrage opportunities this study examines the impact of the

foreign and domestic investors and tax induced ex dividend day trading abstract this paper reports evidence on the consequences of differential tax treatment for domestic and foreign owners in a market with a high degree of foreign ownership for certain stocks the helsinki stock exchange hse we find that ex dividend day ratios vary with the degree of foreign ownership and detect significantly abnormal ex dividend day trading volumes the average ex dividend price drops for high yield high foreign ownership stocks are likely to lie outside no arbitrage boundaries for domestic taxable investors an investigation of short selling through a derivatives instrument also reveals significant excess trading volumes in ex dividend months the tax heterogeneity of the company s ownership structure seems to play a role in explaining deviations from dividend neutrality more deviations are observed for companies with a more homogeneous ownership structure in terms of taxation

the valuation of american call options and the expected ex dividend stock price decline abstract this study focuses on the ex dividend stock price decline implicit within the valuation of american call options on dividend paying stocks the roll 1977 american call option pricing formula and the observed structure of cboe call option transaction prices are used to infer the expected ex dividend stock price decline as a proportion of the amount of the dividend the relative decline is shown to be not meaningfully different from one confirming some recent evidence from studies which examined stock prices in the days surrounding ex dividend

ex dividend stock price behavior and arbitrage opportunities this paper investigates the relation between ex dividend stock price behavior and arbitrage oppor tunities in a continuous trading frictionless economy the authors demonstrate that it is possible for the ex dividend stock price drop to differ from the dividend and still short term traders cannot gene rate arbitrage profits the argument is independent of transactions c osts the relevance of this insight to estimating the marginal tax br acket based on ex dividend stock price drops is explored furthermore this insight is also applied to the area of option pricing in which the special class of escrowed dividend stock price processes is stud ied the authors show that most elements from this class of stock pri ce processes generate invalid option pricing formulas copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

the effect of personal taxes on common stock prices the case of a belgian tax reform abstract this paper analyses how a belgian tax reform affected the relative pricing of securities with differential tax treatment of dividends the results show that stock prices reflect their relative personal tax advantage and the price differentials are significantly related to dividend yield

crossborder dividend taxation and the preferences of taxable and nontaxable investors evidence from canada abstract we consider how fund managers respond to the conflicting preferences of their investors we focus on the conflict between the taxable and retirement accounts of international funds which face different tradeoffs between dividends and capital gains in principle managers could resolve this conflict through dividend arbitrage but a proprietary database of dividend arbitrage transactions shows that in practice they cannot thus managers must resolve it through their investment policies we find robust evidence that managers with more retirement money favor the preferences of retirement investors and further evidence for this view in the difference between u s and canadian funds portfolio weights

options taxes and ex dividend day behavior a novel way of estimating the expected as opposed to the actual share price fall off is developed using option prices this method is applied to the uk traded options market using data from 1979 to 1984 the results show that a the average expected fall off implicit in option prices is around 55 to 60 of the dividend and significantly different from it the fall off also varied inversely with the dividend yield which is consistent with the prediction of the tax clientele hypothesis b the estimates of the expected fall off were not significantly different from the actual fall off c finally the results imply that the usual assumption made in valuing options on dividend paying stocks that the fall off is equal to the dividend would lead to downward biased estimates of the option value

return risk and yield evidence from ex ante data the purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between return and yield in the context of ex ante data from the value line investment survey and by examining the role of dividends as a proxy for risk the use of ex ante data should substantially reduce the confounding of tax and information effects that has affected earlier studies heteroscedasticity is detected in the after tax capm and found to be negatively related to yield and positively related to beta maximum likelihood methods are used to correct for heteroscedasticity and generate efficient coefficient estimates using data for each of the years 1973 through 1983 there is an overall positive relationship between expected return and yield however coefficient estimates of yield are highly variable from year to year the relationship between dividend yields and security returns is currently a subject of extensive research in finance empirically a positive relationship is found by blume 5 gordon and bradford 12 elton gruber and rentzler

the emergence of english commercial law analysis inspired by the ottoman experience abstract thirteenth century england was a commercial backwater whose trade was dominated by foreigners to accommodate and encourage foreign merchants england modified its legal system by creating legal institutions that were available to both domestic and foreign traders among the most important of these institutions were streamlined debt collection procedures and mixed juries composed of both englishmen and foreigners by introducing institutions that treated locals and foreigners equally england created a level playing field that enabled english merchants to become increasingly prominent in the later middle ages england s ability to modernize its law was facilitated by the secular nature of english law the representation of merchants in parliament and legal pluralism medieval england contrasts sharply with the early modern ottoman empire the latter created special institutions for foreign merchants which eventually put ottoman muslims at a competitive disadvantage

ex dividend day stock price behavior discreteness or tax induced clienteles abstract since prices are constrained to discrete tick multiples while dividends are essentially continuous ex day price changes will not equal dividends we argue that the expected price drop is strictly less than the dividend but within one tick of the dividend the price drop to dividend ratio will i be less than one ii increase with dividends generally and iii decline between tick multiples giving a sawtooth pattern in the data since dividends and dividend yields are highly correlated discreteness will give the impression of tax induced dividend clienteles even if there are none taxable cash dividends and nontaxable stock dividends exhibit similar ex day behavior

dividends taxes and common stock prices the ex dividend day behavior of common stock prices before the income tax this study examines the ex dividend day behavior of common stock prices before the enactment of the federal income tax on ex dividend days during the pre tax period stock prices fell on average by the full amount of the dividend the data are consistent with the hypothesis that i investors in the pre tax period value dividends and capital gains as perfect substitutes and ii the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains has since caused investors to discount the value of taxable cash dividends in relation to capital gains

tax induced trading around ex dividend days abstract this paper investigates trading volume around ex dividend days for taxable distributions cash dividends it is found that trading volume increases significantly around the ex dividend day this increase is more pronounced for high yield actively traded stocks and after brokerage commissions became negotiable the results are consistent with the hypothesis that short term traders have an impact on ex day price behavior at least for taxable distributions for non taxable distributions stock splits and stock dividends we find negative abnormal volume around ex day

risk premia and the ex dividend stock price behavior abstract it has been suggested that the positive abnormal return on ex dividend days may be due in part to the existence of a risk premium the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that on ex dividend days trading in low dividend yield stocks is dominated by ordinary investors who demand a tax premium for their higher tax liability on ordinary dividends relative to capital gains trading in high dividend yield stocks appears to be dominated by short term traders who obtain a positive unsystematic risk premium finally the structural relationship between rates of return on the one side and dividend yield and risk premia on the other is quite different on ex dividend and other days as well as through time

tax reform and ex dividend day behavior this paper investigates the effect of a major canadian tax reform on the ex dividend day behavior of companies on the toronto stock exchange the results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that price changes on ex dividend days reflect the relative taxation of dividends and capital gains for the representative investor but are consistent with the hypothesis that ex dividend day price behavior reflects short term trading activities

explaining the economic trajectories of civilizations the systemic approach abstract a civilization constitutes a durable social system of complementary traits some of the complementarities of any given civilization are between elements of material life and ones commonly treated as integral to culture identifying the mechanisms responsible for a civilization s observed trajectory involves therefore causal relationships that cross the often postulated cultural material divide complementarities make it difficult to transplant institutions across civilizations on a piecemeal basis they imply that reforms designed to jump start an economy will fail unless they are comprehensive civilizational analysis can benefit therefore from attention to institutional complementarities including ones involving both cultural and material variables

difference systems in financial futures markets many financial futures markets allow substitutions for the par grade of security at delivery substitutes are deliverable at premiums or discounts differences in commodities parlance to the futures price the rule that establishes these differences is called a difference system this paper characterizes financial futures market equilibrium with yield based difference systems and investigates particular systems in use the major finding is that currently used difference systems effectively limit deliverable supply in the futures markets and lead to futures prices which understate the cash market price of the par security in order to increase deliverable supply many financial futures markets allow the delivery of a variety of grades issues of securities in fulfillment of a financial futures contract the par grade of security on which the futures contract is based is deliverable at the futures price various other grades of securities are deliverable at premiums or discounts to the futures price in commodities parlance these premiums and discounts are called differences and the rule that establishes the set of premiums and discounts is called a difference system see hoffman 2 chapter xv for an excellent discussion of difference systems in commodity futures contracts there are two types of difference systems currently in use in financial futures markets both are based on security yields the first is called variable rate or yield maintenance pricing under this system nonpar securities are deliverable at the futures price times a factor which is the price of the delivered security relative to the par security where both are discounted by the yield of the par security selling at the futures price the second is called fixed rate or factor pricing under this system nonpar securities are deliverable at the futures price times a factor which is the price of the delivered security relative to the par security where both are discounted at the yield of the par security selling at par this paper first characterizes financial futures market equilibrium with yieldbased difference systems and then investigates theoretically and empirically the particular characteristics of factor pricing and yield maintenance pricing the major finding is that currently used differences systems produce financial futures prices which systematically understate the spot market price of the par security vice president chicago mercantile exchange this research was conducted while the author was economist financial studies section board of governors of the federal reserve system the opinions in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the board

implications of the discreteness of observed stock prices stock prices on the organized exchanges are restricted to be divisible by 1 8 therefore the true price usually differs from the observed price this paper examines the biases resulting from the discreteness of observed stock prices it is shown that the natural estimators of the variance and all of the higher order moments of the rate of returns are biased an approximate set of correction factors is derived and a procedure is outlined to show how the correction can be made the natural estimators of the beta and of the variance of the market portfolio on the other hand are nearly unbiased the behavior of stock prices has been an issue of interest to the financial economist for many years this interest resulted in a growing number of empirical studies which attempt to estimate this behavior e g blattberg and gonedes 2 fama 6 fama and roll 7 8 barnea and downes 1 to date stock price behavior is estimated under the assumption that the observed trading price is the true equilibrium price however observed stock prices and stock price changes on the organized exchanges are restricted to multiples of 1 8 of a dollar 1 therefore if the true distribution of stock prices is continuous an observed trading price can be different from the true price this paper examines the biases in estimating the moments of stock price changes caused by the discreteness of observed stock prices the major focus of the paper is in noting this problem providing a model which explains the source of these biases and quantifying their size section i demonstrates that due to the discrete nature of observed stock prices the natural estimators for the variance and for the higher order moments of the rate of returns are biased upward this bias is larger for stocks with lower prices and smaller standard deviation for instance assuming that the standard deviation a is 0 001 the stock price is one dollar the true probability distribution of stock prices is lognormal and the observed prices are as close as possible to the true prices then the natural estimator of r has expectation 0 01400 hence it is biased upward by 1300 significant biases have important implications in option pricing we derive an approximate set of correction factors which can be applied to the

volume for winners and losers taxation and other motives for stock trading capital gains taxes create incentives to trade our major finding is that turnover is higher for winners stocks the prices of which have increased than for losers which is not consistent with the tax prediction however the turnover in december and january is evidence of tax motivated trading there is a relatively high turnover for losers in december and for winners in january we conclude that taxes influence turnover but other motives for trading are more important we were unable to find evidence that changing the length of the holding period required to qualify for long term capital gains treatment affected turnover investors responding to the tax incentives in the capital gains laws should produce predictable patterns in the volume of trading in a stock but not necessarily in its price this study uses past price patterns as a proxy to measure the incentives to sell or avoid selling a stock and observes trading volumes to estimate the extent to which investors respond to these incentives past price patterns may influence trading volumes for other non tax related reasons as well these are also considered we find that past prices influence current incentives to trade through both tax and non tax motives winners tend to have higher abnormal volumes than losers this would be expected if non tax related motives were predominant however the influence of tax related motives on trading volume is shown by seasonal variations in the relationship between past price changes and turnover as predicted by tax induced trading theories the volume of losers is higher than normal in december and the volume of winners is higher than normal in january we found no evidence that trading volume was affected by changes in the length of the holding period required to qualify for long term capital gains investors reactions to capital gains taxes are important for several reasons first a comprehensive understanding of investor behavior would include both price and volume understanding the relationship between taxes and volume is a fruitful and convenient method of contributing to this subject the resource allocation consequences of capital gains taxes are controversial in part because

a microstructure analysis of ex dividend stock price behavior before and after the 1984 and 1986 tax reform acts this article extends ex dividend research by explicitly modeling trading at bid and ask quotations this refinement distinguishes between buying and selling for long term investors and short term dividend capture traders it also explicitly incorporates the bid ask spread and eliminates some potential measurement errors that may bias returns marginal conditions are tested during 1983 and 1988 periods that span the 1984 and 1986 tax reform acts results for long term investors are consistent with the elimination of favorable capital gains tax rates at observed prices tax neutral short term traders cannot profit corporate dividend capture traders face profit opportunities during 1983 that disappear by 1988 copyright 1996 by university of chicago press

an examination of ex dividend day stock price movements the case of nontaxable master limited partnership distributions this study examines the unit stock price and volume behavior of master limited partnerships mlp around the ex dividend day since the dividends of mlps are not taxable to the unitholder tax based hypotheses predict no abnormal unit movements around the ex day significant positive excess returns and volume are found before the ex dividend day and significant negative excess returns are found on the ex dividend day the findings which are not significantly impacted by the tax reform act of 1986 suggest ex day stock movements are not solely a function of investor marginal tax rates or corporate trading behavior elton and gruber s 1970 findings that in 1966 67 stock prices fell on average by less than the amount of the dividend on the ex dividend date and that the ratio of the price decrease to the dividend was correlated with the dividend yield have led to the development of a tax clientele hypothesis relating to investor behavior one puzzling result from their study was the finding that the price decreases for the highest yielding securities were significantly greater than the dividends which in their analysis implied an investor clientele with negative tax rates while michaely 1989 using 1986 87 data was unable to find support for the tax clientele hypothesis across different yield groups he also documented the large price drop for the highest yielding securities michaely 1989 suggested that his results may demonstrate a preference of corporations for dividend over capital gains because of favorable tax treatment corporations receive on dividend income corporate trader hypothesis shefrin and statman 1984 however suggest that preferences for dividends over capital gains may exist for nontax reasons such as self control or a desire to segregate gains and losses the purpose of this paper is to examine the ex dividend day stock price behavior of master limited partnership mlp units during the 1985 88 period dividends from these high yielding securities are not taxable therefore support for either the tax clientele hypothesis or the corporate trader hypothesis would be found only if the average ex day price change on mlps equalled the dividend this result would also be consistent with barclay s 1987 finding that before the enactment of an income tax in 1913 even high

dividend capture in nasdaq stocks abstract we examine the importance of dividend capture trading in nasdaq stocks by testing for cross sectional relations between ex day abnormal returns and bid ask spreads throughout we find that ex day returns and spreads are positively related the relation increases across dividend yield quintiles and is strongest in high yield stocks the relation does not appear in a sample of non ex dividend days these findings indicate that dividend capture trading affects the ex day returns of at least some particularly high yield nasdaq stocks and that dividend capture trading is important for understanding ex dividend day returns

unbiased estimation of the black scholes formula abstract the black scholes model gives the price of an option as a function of the true variance rate of the underlying stock and other parameters because the true variance rate is unobservable an estimate of the variance rate is used in empirical tests but because the black scholes formula is non linear in the variance option price estimates using an estimated variance are biased even if the variance estimate itself is unbiased this paper develops an unbiased estimator of the black scholes formula from a taylor series expansion of the formula and the properties of the pdf of the estimated variance

anticipation of quarterly earnings announcements a test of option market efficiency abstract this study tests chicago board options exchange efficiency by examining option price behavior in the weeks surrounding a firm s quarterly earnings announcement the evidence presented here suggests that a first order autoregressive seasonal process describes quarterly earnings behavior and demonstrates that the information content of an earnings announcement is fully incorporated in option prices by the end of the announcement week

standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability abstract standard deviations implied in option prices have recently been introduced as being better than average predictors of future stock price variability this article specifically studies the predictive ability of implicit standard deviations taking into account the dividend problem and the problem of optimal weighting schemes of the standard deviations when there are several options on the same stock transaction data information was used to study the importance of non simultaneities in observing stock and option prices

valuation of american call options on dividend paying stocks empirical tests abstract this paper examines the pricing performance of the valuation equation for american call options on stocks with known dividends and compares it with two suggested approximation methods the approximation obtained by substituting the stock price net of the present value of the escrowed dividends into the black scholes model is shown to induce spurious correlation between prediction error and 1 the standard deviation of stock return 2 the degree to which the option is in the money or out of the money 3 the probability of early exercise 4 the time to expiration of the option and 5 the dividend yield of the stock a new method of examining option market efficiency is developed and tested

radical political economy and the economics of labor markets this essay is the result of a long process involving many drafts and revisions i am grateful to duncan foley for the careful and constructive criticisms offered throughout the project the following people read the manuscript at different stages and although they often disagreed with me they generously provided helpful comments two anonymous referees for this journal samuel bowles william dickens greg dow robert drago richard edwards kathleen engel richard freeman james galbraith herbert gintis jody hoffer gittel sandfordjacoby tom kochan david levine lisa lynch paul osterman michael piore bob rebitzer gil skilman dan slesnick robert thomas and tsuyoshi tsuru comments from participants in seminars at the massachusetts institute of technology university of massachusetts at amherst and hitotsubashi university are also gratefully acknowledged

statistical tests of contingent claims asset pricing models abstract a new methodology for statistically testing contingent claims asset pricing models based on asymptotic statistical theory is proposed it is introduced in the context of the black scholes option pricing model for which some illustrative estimation inference and simulation results are also presented the proposed methodology is then extended to arbitrary contingent claims by first considering the estimation problem for general ito processes and then deriving the asymptotic distribution of a general contingent claim which depends upon such ito processes