spatial search migration and regional unemployment the dominant explanation of spatial unemployment in the literature assumes that workers must live in an area in order to be able to access job offers this gives rise to compensating variations in local wages and unemployment however for many occupations search is clearly conducted over longer distances from a home base in the model presented in this paper migration and unemployment are analysed both when the optimal search field is local as in the traditional model and when search is conducted over longer distances i compare equilibria in these two regimes and discuss the implications for regional policy

is protectionism on the rise assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008 to understand the role of trade policies in the crisis of 2008 this paper constructs the overall trade restrictiveness indices for a wide range of countries using their tariff schedules in 2008 and 2009 the index summarizes the trade policy stance of a country taking into account the share of each good in trade as well as its corresponding import demand elasticity results show that there is no widespread increase in protectionism via tariff policies since the global financial crisis has unfolded while many countries have adjusted tariffs upward on selected products only a handful of countries such as malawi russia argentina turkey and china focus on products that have significant impacts on trade flows the united states and the european union by contrast rely mainly on anti dumping duties to shield domestic industries overall while the rise in tariffs and anti dumping duties in these countries may have jointly caused global trade to drop by as much as us 43 billion during the crisis period it explains less than 2 percent of the collapse in world trade

economic dynamics in the malthusian era evidence from the 1609 spanish expulsion of the moriscos we investigate economic dynamics in the malthusian era using the 1609 expulsion of moriscos from spain sharp population declines in former morisco districts were accompanied by decreased output and increased per capita output while these short run results are consistent with standard malthusian predictions malthusian convergence was delayed up to 1786 in former morisco districts archival sources and historical accounts suggest extractive institutions and cultural differences may have contributed to delayed convergence in population and output per capita this historic episode provides an unusually rich setting to examine malthusian dynamics highlighting the potential for sustained differences in per capita output in the malthusian era

la dolce vita hedonic estimates of quality of life in italian cities colombo e michelangeli a and stanca l la dolce vita hedonic estimates of quality of life in italian cities regional studies this paper investigates quality of life in italian cities using the hedonic approach it analyses micro level data for housing and labour markets to estimate compensating differentials for local amenities within four domains weather environment services and society large compensating differentials in housing markets are found whereas the effects on wages are relatively small quality of life varies substantially across space and is generally better in large and medium sized cities of the centre north services and social conditions are strongly related to overall quality of life it is also found that across cities quality of life is positively and significantly related to subjective well being

could tariffs be pro cyclical abstract conventional wisdom says that tariffs are counter cyclical we analyze the relationship between business cycles and applied mfn tariffs using a disaggregated product level panel dataset covering 72 countries between 2000 and 2011 strikingly and counter to conventional wisdom we find that tariffs are pro cyclical further investigation reveals that this pro cyclicality is driven by the tariff setting behavior of developing countries tariffs are acyclical in developed countries we present evidence that pro cyclical market power drives the pro cyclicality of tariffs in developing countries providing further evidence of the importance of terms of trade motivations in explaining trade policy

reap what you sow agricultural technology urbanization and structural change abstract this paper studies how productivity enhancing agricultural technology affects urbanization by provoking structural change we investigate these issues using a natural experiment in the united states the results show that technologies which improve crop productivity lead to a less urbanized economy as economic activity relocates from manufacturing and services towards agriculture the effects are highly persistent and are driven by the technology increasing agricultural labor demand our findings highlight the potentially unintended disruptive force of innovative technologies

amenity values versus land constraints the spatial effects of natural landscape features on housing values when local amenities are tied to natural land use features that cannot be developed for physical or regulatory reasons the corresponding implicit price estimates from a hedonic housing model may reflect local supply constraints and confound estimation of natural amenity values using a spatial simultaneous equations model of housing values and migration we examine whether local supply constraints from natural or preserved features have influenced the housing market results indicate that constraints associated with the presence of water bodies and some types of open space preservation have contributed to higher housing prices offsetting local demand for these natural amenities jel c31 r23

global supply chains and trade policy responses to the 2008 crisis the collapse in trade and the contraction of output that occurred during 2008 9 was comparable to and in many countries more severe than the great depression of the 1930s however it did not give rise to the rampant protectionism that followed the great crash the idea that the rise in the fragmentation of production across global value chains vertical specialization may be a deterrent against protectionism is under appreciated in the literature institutions also played a role in limiting the extent of protectionist responses world trade organization discipline raises the cost of using trade policies for member countries and has proved to be a stable foundation for the open multilateral trading system that has been built over the past 50 years using tradeand protection data for seven large emerging market countries that have a history of active use of trade policy the influence of these and other factors on trade policy responses to the 2008 crisis are empirically examined an instrumental variables strategy is used to identify their impact participation in global value chains is found to be a powerful economic factor determining trade policy responses

determinants of world demand for u s corn seeds the role of trade costs the united states is a large net exporter of corn seeds seed trade including corn has been expanding but its determinants are not well understood this paper econometrically investigates the determinants of world demand for u s corn seeds with a detailed analysis of trade costs impeding exports flows to various markets trade costs include costs associated with distance tariffs and sanitary phytosanitary sps regulations imposed by foreign countries on u s corn seed exports sps policy information comes from the excerpt data base of usda aphis the analysis relies on a gravity like model based on an explicit specification of derived demand for seed by foreign corn producers a sps count variable is incorporated as a shifter in the unit cost of seeds faced by foreign users we use data from 48 countries and for the years 1989 to 2004 we find that all trade costs matter and have had a negative impact on u s corn seed exports tariffs matter most followed by sps measures and distance an extensive econometric investigation reveals that qualitative results are robust to specification changes but that sample selection bias is present in log linear specifications based on seed export levels and approximating zero trade data with a small positive number

migration regional equilibrium and the estimation of compensating differentials in this study we have developed an improved model of net migration that encompasses both equilibrium and disequilibrium components instrumental variables fixed effects estimates of the model with time series data for 51 areas in the united states over the period 1971 1988 support the importance of both equilibrium and disequilibrium factors in migration excerpt

the impact of supply constraints on house prices in england we test the theoretical prediction that house prices respond more strongly to changes in local earnings in places with tight supply constraints using a unique panel dataset of 353 local planning authorities in england between 1974 and 2008 exploiting exogenous variation from a policy reform vote shares and historical density to identify the endogenous constraints measures we find that regulatory constraints have a substantive positive impact on the house price earnings elasticity the effect of constraints due to scarcity of developable land is largely confined to highly urbanised areas and uneven topography has a quantitatively less meaningful impact

the unequal geographic burden of federal taxation in the united states workers in cities offering above average wages cities with high productivity low quality of life or inefficient housing sectors pay 27 percent more in federal taxes than otherwise identical workers in cities offering below average wages according to simulation results taxes lower long run employment levels in high wage areas by 13 percent and land and housing prices by 21 and 5 percent causing locational inefficiencies costing 0 23 percent of income or 28 billion in 2008 employment is shifted from north to south and from urban to rural areas tax deductions index taxes partially to local cost of living improving locational efficiency

earnings functions when wages and prices vary by location economists generally assume implicitly that the return to schooling is invariant across local labor markets we demonstrate that this outcome pertains if and only if preferences are homothetic a special case that seems unlikely our theory predicts that returns to education will instead be relatively low in expensive high amenity locations our analysis of u s data provides support for this contention returns to college are especially low in such cities as san francisco and seattle our findings call into question standard empirical exercises in labor economics that treat the returns to education as a single parameter

self enforcing trade agreements evidence from time varying trade policy the bagwell and staiger 1990 theory of cooperative trade agreements predicts new tariffs i increase with imports ii increase with the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticities and iii decrease with the variance of imports the authors find us import policy during 1997 2006 to be consistent with this theory a one standard deviation increase in import growth the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticity and the standard deviation of import growth changes the probability that the us imposes an antidumping tariff by 35 percent by 88 percent and by 76 percent respectively

quality of life firm productivity and the value of amenities across canadian cities we estimate quality of life and productivity differences across canada s metropolitan areas in a hedonic general equilibrium framework these are based on the estimated willingness to pay of heterogeneous households and firms to locate in various cities which differ in their wage levels housing costs and land values using 2006 canadian census data our metropolitan quality of life estimates are somewhat consistent with popular rankings yet find canadians care more about climate and culture quality of life is highest in victoria for anglophones montreal for francophones and vancouver for allophones and lowest in more remote cities toronto is canada s most productive city vancouver is the overall most valuable city qualite de vie productivite des entreprises et la valeur des avantages dans les diverses villes canadiennes on evalue les differences entre la qualite de vie et la productivite des entreprises entre les zones metropolitaines au canada a l aide d un cadre d analyse d equilibre general hedonique ces metriques sont basees sur l estimation de la volonte de payer de menages et d entreprises heterogenes pour se localiser dans diverses villes qui different tant pour ce qui est des niveaux de salaires des couts de l habitation et des prix des terrains a l aide des donnees du recensement canadien de 2006 on construit des evaluations de la qualite de vie des diverses zones metropolitaines qui s arriment convenablement aux ordonnancements en vogue mais on decouvre que les canadiens portent une attention particuliere au climat et a la culture la qualite de vie est la plus elevee a victoria pour les anglophones a montreal pour les francophones et a vancouver pour les allophones et la plus faible pour les villes eloignees des grands centres toronto est la ville la plus productive vancouver est generalement la plus appreciee

public conservation land and employment growth in the northern forest region we quantify the effect that public conservation lands have on employment growth in the northern forest region of the united states a model of simultaneous employment and net migration growth is estimated with data on non metropolitan counties from 1990 to 1997 exogenous variables include the 1990 share of the land base in public conservation uses we find that net migration rates were higher in counties with more conservation lands but the effects are relatively small no significant effect on employment growth is detected as well variables measuring changes in public timber harvests have no effect on employment growth

people places and earnings differentials in scotland abstractpeople places and earnings differentials in scotland regional studies this paper investigates the contribution of people and place effects to earnings differentials in scotland using individual and regional data the main sources of differentials are attributed to workers characteristics people effects particularly academic and vocational qualifications followed by occupational and industrial affiliations on the other hand differences in the attributes of local area labour markets place effects explain only a small part of individual earnings differentials the most relevant spatial attribute is local area human capital the findings suggest that people based policies are likely to be more effective at improving workers earnings prospects than place based policies

frictional labour mobility we build a dynamic model of migration where in addition to standard relocation costs workers face spatial frictions that decrease their ability to compete for distant job opportunities we estimate the model on a matched employer employee panel dataset describing labour market transitions within and between the 100 largest french cities our identification strategy is based on the premise that frictions affect the frequency of job transitions while mobility costs impact the distribution of accepted wages we find that 1 controlling for spatial frictions reduces mobility cost estimates by one order of magnitude 2 the urban wage premium is driven by better opportunities for local job to job transitions in larger cities 3 migration reduces lifetime inequalities by providing insurance against unsatisfactory initial location draws 4 labour mobility policies based on relocation subsidies are inefficient unlike switching from nationwide to local minimum wages

comparative advantage geographic advantage and the volume of trade a functional relationship between the degree of a country s comparative advantage and the volume of its net exports of any good to its trading partner is established using a model with per unit distance transportation costs between countries coasts and their interiors the greater a country s comparative advantage the deeper its exports penetrate geographically into its trading partner the internal spatial structure of a country consists of cities on a river it is shown that population sizes wage rates and residential rental rates are greatest in the port city and decline monotonically as one moves inland copyright 1991 by royal economic society

hegemonic stability theory and 19th century tariff levels in europe although the theory of hegemonic stability has attracted an impressive array of adherents current formulations leave many conceptual issues unresolved existing formulations also fail to draw from the theory any implications concerning the process by which a hegemonic state creates and maintains a regime as an example great britain is generally agreed to have been hegemonic in the nineteenth century but britain s behavior was generally inconsistent with that implied by a theory of hegemonic stability i advance an alternative set of explanations for changes in international tariff levels based on the notion of a political business cycle

effective protection redux abstract this paper rehabilitates effective protection for use in political economy in general equilibrium the usual definition corresponds to no economically interesting magnitude the effective rate of protection for sector j is redefined here as the uniform tariff which is equivalent to the actual differentiated tariff structure in its effect on rents to residual claimants in sector j it permits political economic ranking of how much protection is given across sectors since higher uniform tariffs imply higher losses of welfare sacrificed to the interest groups demonstrating operationality the numerical results for the us economy for the old and new concepts are not significantly correlated

the impact of regulations on agricultural trade evidence from the sps and tbt agreements according to world trade organization rules countries may adopt regulations under the agreements on sanitary and phyto sanitary sps and technical barriers to trade tbt we analyze the structure of these measures in agricultural trade the inventory approach suggests that european countries have among the lowest coverage ratios of all oecd countries using a gravity equation we also estimate their stringency our results suggest that they significantly reduce developing countries exports to oecd countries but do not affect trade between oecd members furthermore european imports are more negatively influenced by sps and tbts than imports of other oecd countries

a dynamic interregional theory of migration and population growth the authors attempt to bring the theory of regional amenity value determination together with a theoretical framework on migration to form a cohesive theoretical model they build on previous efforts to do this by introducing factors such as the housing market and determination of the equilibrium level of real full income the implied geographical focus is on the united states annotation

economic geography and wages abstract this paper estimates the agglomeration benefits that arise from vertical linkages between firms we identify the agglomeration benefits off the spatial variation in firms nominal wages u

macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings evidence from four countries abstract this paper examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors real exchange rate fluctuations affect the two criteria for dumping in opposite ways making the overall effect on filings ambiguous in theory examining the filing patterns of the four major users of ad law during the 1980 98 period we find that real exchange rates and domestic real gdp growth both have statistically significant impacts on filings bilateral filing data indicate that a one standard deviation real appreciation of the domestic currency increases filings by 33 we also find one standard deviation fall in domestic real gdp increases filings by 23

the effects of housing prices wages and commuting time on joint residential and job location choices an empiricalmodelof joint decisions of where to l and where to work demonstrates that individuals make residential and job location choices by trading off wages housing prices and commuting costs wages are higher in metropolitan markets but housing prices are also higher in urban areas consumers can live in lower priced nonmetropolitan houses and still earn urban wages but they incur commuting costs that increase with distance from the city improvements in transportation that lower commuting time will increase nonmetropolitan populations and will increase the number of nonmetropolitan commuters to metropolitan markets equal wage growth across labor markets causes a shift in relative population from rural to urban markets while an equiproportional increase in housing prices causes a population shift toward rural areas

testing the endogeneity of tariff policy in the u s abstract endogenous tariff theory suggests tariffs are created in response to self interested political pressure using a varma model covering the period 1890 1970 in the u s we show that macroeconomic variables which proxy political pressure granger cause the tariff

a theory of managed trade this paper proposes a theory that predicts low levels of protection during periods of normal trade volume coupled with episodes of special protection when trade volumes surge this dynamic pattern of protection emerges from a model in which countries choose levels of protection in a repeated game facing volatile trade swings high trade volume leads to a greater incentive to defect unilaterally from cooperative tariff levels therefore as the volume of trade expands the level of protection must rise in a cooperative equilibrium to mitigate the rising trade volume and hold the incentive to defect in check copyright 1990 by american economic association

parking transit and employment in a central business district abstract in this paper we present a general equilibrium model to examine the role of parking and transit subsidy policy on the size of a central business district cbd cbd land values and the market shares of cars and transit the three main features of the model are 1 agglomeration economies increase continuously with labor market size 2 congestion arises from auto use only transit is noncongestible and 3 locational equilibrium is maintained in the sense that firms and individuals cannot reduce costs or increase utility by moving given equilibrium prices and city size we derive the conditions under which parking taxes can be levied and used to subsidize transit and increase equilibrium cbd size and land values we compute an optimal parking tax that maximizes cbd size and land values and derive relationships among parking taxes transit use and congestion we find nonmonotonic relationships among parking taxes land values and transit use

bidding for firms recently toyota sought a plant location in the united states the 800 million plant will employ 3000 workers and numerous states offered toyota generous investment incentives hoping this would induce toyota to select their state the commonwealth of kentucky won this competition but the price was high the present value of the payments exceeds 125 million the payment of investment incentives for the toyota plant is not unique in 1976 pennsylvania paid 75 million to attract a volkswagen plan nissan honda and mazda received generous investment incentives when locating plants in the united states and this bidding is not limited to states to attract the headquarters of the presbyterian church usa with its 1300 jobs and 38 million annual payroll civic leaders in louisville kentucky offered the church a warehouse and 6 2 million for renovation of the structure bidding the church away from kansas city missouri in this paper we contend that this competition may result from the average cost pricing of publicly provided goods and services 2 when the marginal cost of providing a firm and its workers with public services is less than the tax revenue they generate a government may offer the firm subsidies that reduce the distortions the average cost pricing of the public service creates thus this competition for industry is not a zero sum game where the subsidies are only transfers from the government to the firm rather these subsidies may facilitate the efficient location of industry

the political economy of the tariff cycle how can protectionism and free trade succeed one another our answer focuses on the changing balance of private actors political demands these actors acquire interests in tariff policies because their assets are spatially concentrated and trade in these assets is subject to various limitations actors in regions experiencing no new investment in an established industry old regions have interests that sometimes differ from those in regions where there is new investment we show that old regions have no reason to be involved in tariff politics at business cycle peaks during troughs whether a state becomes more or less protectionist depends ceteris paribus on the relative political strength of old import competing and old exporting interests if old import competing industries outweigh the old exporters then protection will tend to increase at the trough and decrease at the peak of a business cycle the opposite result occurs when old exporters are more influential

import protection business cycles and exchange rates evidence from the great recession this research estimates the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988 q1 2010 q4 for five industrialized economies the united states european union australia canada and south korea there is evidence of a strong countercyclical trade policy response in the pre great recession period of 1988 q1 2008 q3 during which increases in domestic unemployment rates real appreciations in bilateral exchange rates and declines in the gdp growth rates of bilateral trading partners led to substantial increases in new temporary trade barriers it then applies this pre great recession empirical model to realized macroeconomic data from 2008 q4 2010 q4 and find it predicts a surge of new import protection during the great recession e g for the us and eu the model predicts new trade barriers would cover an additional 15 percentage points of nonoil imports well above the baseline level of 2 3 percent of import coverage immediately preceding the crisis finally the research examines why the realized trade policy response differed from model predictions while exchange rate movements played an important role in limiting new import protection during the great recession there is also evidence of one particularly important change in trade policy responsiveness i e in this period governments refrained from imposing new temporary trade barriers against foreign trading partners experiencing their own weak or negative economic growth

is there a compensating wage differential for high crime levels first evidence from europe abstract this paper investigates whether high regional crime levels lead to a compensating wage differential paid by firms in the respective region using data from german social security records official police statistics and official statistics for 2003 2006 i consider both violent and non violent crimes and use three way error components estimators to control for individual and regional heterogeneity the findings suggest that wages are practically unrelated to changes in crime rates this result is robust over a wide range of subgroups there is however some evidence that crime rates influence land prices

heterogeneity and aggregation implications for labor market fluctuations we demonstrate that aggregate employment and consumption can increase without a corresponding movement in productivity in a model with heterogeneous agents where the only aggregate disturbance is a productivity shock the interaction between incomplete capital markets and indivisible labor results in a low employment productivity correlation and creates a time varying wedge between the marginal rate of substitution for commodity consumption and hours and productivity our results caution against viewing the measured wedge as an inefficiency due to a failure of labor market clearing or as a fundamental driving force behind business cycles jel d31 e32 j22 j24 j31

housing and location choices of retiring households evidence from france in this paper a study is made of the mobility and housing choices of the elderly when retiring using household data collected in france from a theoretical viewpoint individuals are likely to decrease their housing quantity because of an income loss when retiring but they may also increase it to benefit from more housing comfort for leisure using the 1992 trois generations survey it is first shown that housing mobility at retirement is substantial in france with a variety of self reported motives then using the 1994 2001 french europanel survey evidence is found of both upsizing and downsizing for mobile recent retirees in many cases housing adjustments lead to a correction of the initial disequilibrium between the number of rooms and the number of occupants however a significant proportion of mobile recent retirees improve the quality of their dwelling

wto tariff commitments and temporary protection complements or substitutes abstract there is a long held notion in the trade policy literature that traditional tariff instruments and temporary protection tp measures are substitutes despite this prediction there is only mixed empirical evidence for a link between tariff reductions and the usage pattern of antidumping safeguard and countervailing duties based on recent theoretical advances i argue in this paper that the relevant trade policy margin for implementing tp measures is instead tariff overhangs the difference between wto bound and applied tariffs lower tariff overhangs constrain countries to raise their mfn applied rates without legal repercussions independent of past tariff changes using detailed sectoral data for a sample of 30 wto member countries during the period 1996 2014 i find strong evidence for an inverse link between tariff overhangs and tp activity this result implies that tariff overhangs and tp measures are substitutes vindicating the importance of existing tariff commitments as a key determinant of alternative protection instruments

new estimates of climate demand evidence from location choice abstract we develop and apply to census data a new method for estimating climate demand the method is useful for ranking quality of life based upon a willingness to pay criterion our two major findings are that the willingness to pay quality of life index is correlated with the hedonic approach s ranking but that the migration approach generates much larger estimates of willingness to pay for a more moderate climate this finding is relevant for evaluating the economic impact of global warming

the effect of the canada us free trade agreement on canadian multilateral trade liberalization in this paper show that the canada us free trade agreement cusfta tariff preferences have triggered a decline in canadian external tariffs explaining a two percentage point reduction in the average tariff between 1989 and 1998 next we found that industries that generate the least export rent to the us firms experienced deeper tariff cuts in canada this result provides evidence of cooperation in trade policies between the us and canada finally we estimate the effect of the cusfta on the intensity of industrial lobbying for trade policy in canada and find no relationship between preferential trade liberalization and lobbying activity resume l effet de l accord de libre echange canada u s sur la liberalisation multilaterale du commerce canadien dans ce texte on montre que les preferences tarifaires de l accord de libre echange canada us alecus ont declenche un declin dans le niveau des droits de douane externes canadiens et expliquent une reduction de deux points de pourcentage dans le tarif moyen entre 1989 et 1998 ensuite on decouvre que les industries qui generent le moins de rentes des exportations vers les etats unis font l experience de reduction de tarifs plus importante au canada ce resultat revele une cooperation dans les politiques commerciales entre canada et etats unis enfin on evalue l effet de l alecus sur l intensite du lobbying industriel a propos de la politique commerciale au canada et on decouvre qu il n existe pas de relation entre la liberation preferentielle du commerce et l intensite de l activite de lobbying

the role of price spillovers in the american housing boom abstract one of the striking features of the last u s housing boom was the heterogeneity in the timing of its onset across local markets in this paper we exploit this heterogeneity to estimate the extent to which the boom was spread via spatial spillovers from one market to another our analysis focuses on spillovers that occur around the time that a local market enters its boom which we identify using sharp structural breaks in house price growth rates on the extensive margin there is evidence that the likelihood of a market booming increases substantially if nearby neighbors boom on the intensive margin we also find statistically significant but economically modest effects of the size of a neighbor s boom on subsequent price growth in nearby markets these affects appear to be unrelated to local market fundamentals suggesting a potential role for non rational factors

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

trade wars and trade talks when governments meet in the international arena their actions reflect the political situations at home previous studies of trade relations have focused on governments that are immune from political pressures and that act as benevolent servants of the public interest here we introduce domestic politics into the analysis of international economic relations we study the interactions between national leaders who are concerned both with providing a high standard of living to the general electorate and collecting campaign contributions from special interest groups our analysis sheds light on the determinants of the structure of protection in non cooperative and cooperative policy equilibria

the march of an economic idea protectionism isn t counter cyclic anymore conventional wisdom holds that protectionism is counter cyclic tariffs quotas and the like grow during recessions while that may have been a valid description of the data before the first world war it is now inaccurate since the second world war protectionism has not been counter cyclic tariffs and non tariff barriers simply do not rise systematically during downturns i document this new stylised fact with a panel of data covering over 180 countries and 40 years using over a dozen measures of protectionism and six of business cycles i test and reject a number of potential reasons why protectionism is no longer counter cyclic a diagnosis of exclusion leads me to believe that modern economics may well be responsible for the decline in protectionism s cyclic behaviour economists are more united in their disdain for protectionism than virtually any other concept this in turn leaves one optimistic that the level of protectionism will continue to decline along with its cyclicality andrew k rose

are preferential trade agreements with non trade objectives a stumbling block for multilateral liberalization in many preferential trade agreements ptas countries exchange not only reductions in trade barriers but also cooperation in non trade issues such as labor and environmental standards intellectual property etc we provide a model of ptas motivated by cooperation in non trade issues and analyze its implications for global free trade and welfare we find that such ptas increase the cost of multilateral tariff reductions and thus cause a stumbling block to global free trade this occurs because multilateral tariff reductions decrease the threat that can be used in ptas and thus the surplus that can be extracted from them by explicitly modeling the interaction between preferential and multilateral negotiations we derive a testable prediction and provide novel econometric evidence that supports the model s key prediction the welfare analysis shows that the current wto rules allowing this type of ptas may be optimal for economically large countries thus the model can predict the rules we observe we also analyze alternative rules that constitute a pareto improvement

do inter city differences in intra city wage differentials have any interesting implications abstract recent research has related characteristics of cities to differences in the distribution of wages across workers with different skill levels we demonstrate that these differences in wage differentials arise naturally as a compensating variation in rosen s theoretical model of inter city wages for example if the income elasticity of demand for housing services is less than unity cities with higher house prices will have smaller money wage differentials between low and high skill workers this result has no implications for differences in either absolute or relative real productivity or welfare of unskilled workers similarly changes in the amenity of an urban area may result in changes in relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers with no implications for real productivity or welfare differentials empirical tests in which housing cost differentials are added as a determinant of inter city differences in an intra urban wage differential model provide empirical confirmation of the theoretical expectations it appears that intra urban money wage differentials differences in the quality of life and variation in the cost of living in each city are jointly determined variables just as rosen s model of inter city wage differentials predicts

u s state and local fiscal policy and economic activity do we know more now early reviews of the academic literature on the economic effects of state and local taxes and expenditures suggested that not enough was known upon which to base policy the reviews called for better data and improvements in empirical methodology this paper reviews studies conducted since the early literature reviews to assess our current state of knowledge the conclusion of the study is that we know more now but our knowledge is unlikely to ever be sufficient to provide universal policy guidance rather we suggest that more research is needed on specific state and local policies for specific circumstances consistent with the general principles that guide place based policy

a reexamination of the federal private wage differential in the united states the federal private wage differential is reexamined with recent data using specifications similar to those used in three previous studies i find that the federal private wage differential has narrowed since the 1974 79 period analyzed in those studies in addition i discover that wage differentials based on specifications used in the literature are biased upward because the previous studies did not control for detailed occupational and locational characteristics of workers corrected point estimates of the wage gap are much smaller than previous estimates in the literature differences in the gap across demographic groups occupations and locations are also discussed

toward a business cycle model of tariffs a modified interest group model links movements in tariffs to changes in the level of economic activity within nations this model is introduced and tested for tariff behavior in the 19th and early 20th centuries in three nations the united states great britain and germany empirical analysis lends strong support to the model s central thesis that tariffs are sensitive to movements within a business cycle tariff changes occurring in the three nations with the exception of british tariff increases generally conform to the expectations of the model furthermore business cycle sensitivity provides an explanation of the behavior of tariffs superior to two prominent alternatives those based on ideology and on hegemonic stability

tariff binding and overhang theory and evidence abstract most market access commitments under the wto are in the form of bindings on applied tariff rates we observe two important regularities in the data first applied tariffs are often lower than the bound tariffs providing governments with substantial policy flexibility second the extent of flexibility varies substantially across sectors and countries in a sharp contrast to the prediction of standard trade agreement models we observe a strong negative correlation between tariff commitments and measures of import market power we model the trade off between discipline and flexibility in the design of trade agreements and argue that recognizing this trade off is the key to explain the observed patterns in the tariff binding commitments and applied tariffs under the wto

us trade wars in the twenty first century with emerging countries make america and its partners lose again in a context of rising protectionist rhetoric this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in us trade policies we use a static multicountry multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars for a total of 18 scenarios between the usa and china between the usa and mexico and a combination of the two previous conflicts in each case we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the us partner s the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the usa an import duty that minimises welfare loss a duty that minimises terms of trade deterioration a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue and finally a nash equilibrium we conclude that there is no scenario in which the us government augments its domestic welfare or gdp there may be sectoral gains in value added in the usa but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors while losses for china are relatively small potential losses for the mexican economy are significant there are also free riders of these trade wars finally the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly

u s trade policies in a changing world economy this collection of original essays focuses on issues of international trade and trade policy in a world that is undergoing structural adaptation and in the face of a serious increase in the us trade deficit they bring a new consolidation of analytical perspective to a wide variety of current trade policy issues in their overview chapter alan v deardorff and robert m stern discuss developments in trade and protectionism review the case for free trade and address the arguments in favor of trade intervention rudiger dornbusch and jeffrey frankel analyze the macroeconomic setting in which changes have been made in us tariffs and ntbs stephen p magee and leslie young develop a model of endogenous protection and use it to search for microeconomic and macroeconomic variables that may help to explain changes in tariff and nontariff protection in the us since 1900 paul krugman takes up the question of identifying strategic sectors and the extent to which international competition and national government policies may affect the returns to such sectors under conditions of imperfect competition or when externalities are present avinash dixit analyzes the responses that the us might make to other countries trade policies in terms of how these policies affect us real national income and national security he concludes that the us could use strategic advance responses to alter other countries trade policies in a mutually beneficial way richard n cooper evaluates trade policy as foreign policy by looking at changes through three periods of us history t n srinivasan scrutinizes the national defense argument for government intervention in foreign trade john h jackson in discussing alternative negotiation approaches for the conduct of us trade policies observes that the pursuit of multilateralism may be frustrating and that what may be needed instead is a minilateral approach to trade liberalization in conclusion w max corden offers a package of rules that he believes may be both desirable and possible for the international trading system to attain robert m stern is professor of economics at the university of michigan and director of the institute of public policy studies he is coauthor with allan v deardorff of the michigan model of world production and trade mit press 1985

globalization trade and income my purpose in this paper is to address two questions that confront our discipline repeatedly these days first what is a useful classification of the symptoms and the determinants of globalization a phase used in a remarkable variety of contexts to economists globalization is generally thought of as the increasing internationalization of the production distribution and marketing of goods and services the term is used less precisely in the popular literature perhaps best exemplified by kenichi ohmae s book the borderless world and when used loosely it invokes a wide variety of political sociological environmental and economic trends that are the concern of media attention almost daily however one defines globalization it is surely a development that is having a profound impact on the subject of economics as a whole and ought to have on the field of international economics in particular my second purpose is to ask how globalization is affecting our profession s view of theory and empirical work in international economics traditional trade theory was concerned with a set of fairly well defined questions regarding the determinants of trade the pattern of trade and the welfare consequences of various trade policy instruments the last two decades and perhaps the last decade in particular has led to a much wider interpretation of what living in an open economy means the change that is occurring on a wide range of economic social scientific and

the determinants and welfare implications of us workers diverging location choices by skill 1980 2000 abstract from 1980 to 2000 the rise in the us college high school graduate wage gap coincided with increased geographic sorting as college graduates concentrated in high wage high rent cities this paper estimates a structural spatial equilibrium model to determine causes and welfare consequences of this increased skill sorting while local labor demand changes fundamentally caused the increased skill sorting it was further fueled by endogenous increases in amenities within higher skill cities changes in cities wages rents and endogenous amenities increased inequality between high school and college graduates by more than suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone jel d31 i26 j24 j31 j61 r23

jobs jobs jobs a new perspective on protectionism this paper analyzes the determinants of protectionism in a small open economy with search frictions in this environment jobs generate rents whose access depends on the level of trade protection by raising the domestic price of a good a government may attract more firms in a particular industry this raises the probability that workers will find jobs in this sector and in turn will benefit from the associated rents though simple this channel may help explainavarietyofstylizedfactsonthestructureoftradeprotectionandindividualtrade policy preferences jel f130 f160

crime and economic incentives we explore the role that economic incentives particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution play in determining crime rates we use data on the police force areas of england and wales between 1975 and 1996 and find relative falls in the wages of low wage workers lead to increases in crime we carry out a number of experiments with different wage measures including a wage measure that accounts for the effects of changes in the composition of employment these reinforce the picture of a strong association between the low wage labor market and crime the result that incentives play a central role is reinforced further by the strong impact on crime of deterrence measures and of a measure of the returns to crime

evaluating the trade restrictiveness of phytosanitary measures on u s fresh fruit and vegetable imports empirically assessing sanitary and phytosanitary regulations has proven difficult because most data sources indicate whether a regulation exists but provide no information on the type or importance of the respective measure in this article we construct a novel database of u s phytosanitary measures and match these to 47 fresh fruit and vegetable product imports from 89 exporting countries over the period 1996 2008 a product line gravity equation that accounts for zero trade flows is developed to investigate the trade impact of different pest mitigation measures while the results suggest that phytosanitary treatments generally reduce trade the actual restrictiveness of these measures diminishes dramatically as exporters accumulate experience and it vanishes when exporters reach a certain threshold the results have important policy implications considering the number of empirical studies that find a negative impact of non tariff measures on trade copyright 2013 oxford university press

urban effects on participation and wages are there gender differences abstract this paper estimates participation and wage equations using panel data from the united kingdom to explore gender differences in urban wage and participation premiums the results suggest a small but economically significant urban participation premium for women but none for men results from the wage estimations suggest that after controlling for sample selectivity observed and unobserved heterogeneity the urban premium is larger for women this wage premium is also larger for married or cohabiting women relative to others there is also evidence of higher urban returns to experience for men and lower urban wage depreciation for both men and women

increasing returns dynamic stability and international trade abstract a simple two country two good model in which economies of scale form the basis of international trade is presented it is shown that the larger country exports the good characterized by increasing returns and imports the good subject to constant returns a key feature of the paper is a comprehensive stability analysis it turns out that a normal output price response is necessary for d stability furthermore the marshall lerner condition must be satisfied in terms of the short run import demand elasticities for local dynamic stability finally if international factor mobility is permitted cross hauling of specific factors may be observed

optimal trade policy with trade imbalances abstract optimal trade and capital control policies are characterized under a dynamic model with endogenous trade imbalances in the absence of capital controls optimal trade protection is counter cyclical optimal use of capital controls however dampens the time variation of optimal trade taxes generally trade imbalances are not predictive of optimal policy however optimal trade policy and equilibrium trade imbalances move together when a country grows consistently faster or slower than the rest of the world quantifying the model for the u s economy shows that welfare gains from optimal policy are largely due to static terms of trade effects implying that gains from time varying tariffs or capital controls are small

cooperation in wto s tariff waters this paper examines the extent to which tariff cooperation is observed among world trade organization members with the help of a simple political economy model we show that tariffs are positively

increasing returns to scale and the pattern of trade abstract when realization of increasing returns to scale irs requires geographic concentration formation of cities whose optimal size is limited by commutation costs results if this size is small relative to the population of a country then efficiency of city formation rather than country size dictates comparative advantage with respect to irs goods under restrictive assumptions it can even be shown in a ricardian model with cities that ratios of labor requirement coefficients alone rank goods in comparative advantage order so that country size and the degree of increasing returns displayed by any good are irrelevant to the pattern of trade

technical regulations and specialization in international trade abstract it is widely acknowledged that while technical regulations can improve welfare and facilitate markets they can also impede trade the trade impeding effects of technical regulations are especially worrisome for developing countries they frequently lack the human and capital resources necessary to satisfy technical measures and thus are more likely to be excluded from markets by technical measures this paper uses highly disaggregated us data on agricultural mining and manufacturing imports to examine the impact of technical regulations on trade patterns using instrumental variables estimation to correct for the potential endogeneity of technical regulations the analysis suggests that technical regulations substantially impinge on poor countries exports their weaker capacities to satisfy technical regulations lead them to specialize away from industries with heavier regulatory burdens

saving two in a billion quantifying the trade effect of european food safety standards on african exports abstract a growing concern over health risks associated with food products has prompted close examination of sanitary and phytosanitary standards in industrialized countries this paper quantifies the impact of a new harmonized aflatoxin standard set by the eu on food exports from africa we employ a gravity model to estimate the impact of changes in differing levels of protection based on the eu standard in contrast to those suggested by international standards the analysis is based on trade and regulatory survey data for 15 european countries and nine african countries between 1989 and 1998 our results suggest that the implementation of the new aflatoxin standard in the eu will have a negative impact on african exports of cereals dried fruits and nuts to europe the new eu standard which would reduce health risk by approximately 1 4 deaths per billion a year will decrease these african exports by 64 or us 670 million in contrast to regulation set through an international standard

land use worker heterogeneity and welfare benefits of public goods we show that investments in public goods change the optimal land use in their vicinity leading to additional welfare benefits this occurs through two sorting mechanisms first availability of public goods leads to higher population densities second population groups sort according to their preferences for public goods we develop a structural spatial general equilibrium model that accounts for these effects the model is estimated using data on transport infrastructure commuting behaviour land use and land rents for some 3000 zip codes in the netherlands and for three levels of education welfare benefits of investments in public transport infrastructure are shown to differ sharply by workers educational attainment welfare gains from changes in land use account for up to 30 of the total benefits of a transport investment

empirical evidence on the trade impact of asynchronous regulatory approval of new gmo events abstract this paper focuses on the ex post empirical analysis of the trade impact of asynchronous regulatory approval of new genetically modified organism gmo events we contribute to the literature in three ways first we define indices to assess the extent of asynchronicity and the relative strictness of the gmo approval authorizations of 40 countries considering gmo regulatory developments between 2000 and 2012 regarding cotton maize and soybeans second we introduce indices that are country pair specific product specific and year specific in a gravity model to examine the trade impact of asynchronous regulatory approval across countries by grouping the countries according to the state of their national regulatory gmo frameworks we have an even more differentiated view on the trade impact of asynchronous approval that focuses not only on the existence of regulations but also on their restrictiveness the results from the gravity model show that asynchronous approval has negatively impacted trade flows of cotton maize and soybeans it is observed that both asynchronous approvals and the restrictiveness of importing countries regulations to address the importation of gmo products matter meaning those countries that have already adopted a comprehensive gmo regulatory framework and have policies to manage the importation of gmo crops tend to feel a higher negative impact on trade flows

does school district and municipality border congruence matter research on zoning typically assumes that city planners aim to maximise housing prices with their land use decisions either explicitly for public choice reasons or implicitly through the approval of land uses that create local net benefits noncongruence of school district and municipality borders severs the link between costs and benefits in the eyes of the median voter however which could result in excessive residential development and fiscal externalities that lower property values this paper uses a hedonic approach to indirectly observe the presence of these externalities border congruency between school districts and municipalities in ohio is measured using gis data and matched with a data set of 56 717 home sales the hedonic results indicate that noncongruence is associated with lower housing prices while the degree of noncongruence is positively related for most school districts the negative effect of noncongruency dominates my results are robust and consistent across different model spec

here comes the rain again weather and the intertemporal substitution of leisure i revisit the intertemporal labor supply framework using exogenous variations in daily weather to see how time at work varies with rain in my model a rainy day is associated with a lower enjoyment of leisure effectively increasing wages and bringing more hours at work i test the model using data from the american time use survey supplemented with daily weather i find that on rainy days men shift on average 30 minutes from leisure to work computations give a rough estimate of the intertemporal elasticity of labor supply of around 0 01 in line with the rest of the literature

taxation and the political economy of the tariff traditional accounts of u s tariff policy emphasize trade strategies and interest group politics this article makes a departure it opens with an observation up until world war i the tariff was the largest single source of federal government revenues it then explores the significance of tariffs as taxes theoretically and empirically in its first part the article develops a theory of taxation politics and applies it to the tariff in its second part it submits the theory to an empirical test modeling changes in u s tariff rates from 1829 to 1940 the politics of tariff revision it argues followed from two characteristics of the tariff as tax from the extent of the treasury s dependence upon it and from the distributive pattern of its burdens and benefits taken together the article concludes revenue dependence and distributive incidence account for several diverse aspects of american tariff policy including the structure of its coalitions the shifts in its objectives and the timing of its innovations

reducing transatlantic barriers on u s eu agri food trade what are the possible gains in recent years the eu and the u s have engaged in discussions to lower trade and investment barriers and strengthen transatlantic integration for food and agricultural trade non tariff measures ntms such as sanitary and phytosanitary measures sps stand out as significant barriers this study combines sector level econometric modeling with an agriculture focused computable generable equilibrium cge model to simulate various transatlantic liberalization scenarios on u s eu agri food trade the simulations quantify the effect from tariff removal and addressing ntms the magnitude of the gains depend upon the level of tariff liberalization the depth of integration and possible consumer demand changes

going home evacuation migration decisions of hurricane katrina survivors in the wake of hurricane katrina many evacuees from the gulf region began the difficult process of deciding whether to rebuild or restart elsewhere we examine pre katrina gulf residents decision to return to the postdisaster gulf region which we call the return migration decision we estimate two separate return migration models first using data from a mail survey of individuals in the affected region and then focusing on self administered questionnaires of evacuees in houston our results indicate that return migration can be affected by household income age education level and employment marital and home ownership status but the results depend on the population under consideration we find no effect of connection to place on the return migration decision although the effect of income is relatively small within subsamples we find a much higher proportion of middle income households planning to return than lower income households when comparing across the subsamples in addition the real wage differential between home and host region influences the likelihood of return larger implicit costs in terms of foregone wages for returning induce a lower likelihood of return exploiting this difference at the individual level we are able to produce estimates of willingness to pay wtp to return home average wtp to return home for a sample of relatively poor households is estimated at 1 94 per hour or 3954 per year

riding the wave of urban growth in the countryside spread backwash or stagnation the advisability of an urban centered growth strategy to reap the benefits of urban agglomeration economies is much debated rural areas benefit when the growth spreads to the hinterlands especially within daily commuting distance yet in distant peripheral locations urban growth may create a backwash as households relocate to the urban center this study examines spread vs backwash as separate from long run distance from urban center trend effects using a novel canadian gis database the unique nation wide approach yields a spread and backwash rural growth topography that varies by distance from the urban center by urban population vs income growth and by size of rural community

irradiation as a quarantine treatment abstract poor consumer acceptance and large fixed costs have limited the use of irradiation to increase food safety and mitigate pest risks we discuss these challenges to irradiation s use as quarantine treatment and the growth of some irradiated fresh fruits imports since 2006 lower regulatory barriers changes to labeling requirements and the curtailment of other quarantine treatments may de stigmatize irradiation on the demand side while scale economies may reduce costs on the supply side

local amenities and life cycle migration do people move for jobs or fun abstract do households move for jobs or fun and where do they go when they move we address these questions using the 1970 2000 us census based on a panel of quality of life and business environment measures households prefer msas in warm coastal areas and non metropolitan locations while firms prefer large growing cities in addition cities with improving business environments acquire increasing shares of workers especially workers with high levels of human capital cities with improving consumer amenities become relatively more populated by retirees further analysis of individual level migration decisions indicates that regardless of marital status young highly educated households tend to move towards places with higher quality business environments this tendency is especially pronounced among highly educated couples who are more subject to job market co location problems in contrast regardless of education couples near retirement tend to move away from places with favorable business environments and towards places with highly valued consumer amenities these patterns help explain why areas unattractive to both households and business have struggled as with upstate new york while the sun belt and other regions are thriving