interpreting economic time series this paper explores some of the implications for econometric practice of the principle that people s observed behavior will change when their constraints change in dynamic contexts a proper definition of people s constraints includes among them laws of motion that describe the evolution of the taxes they must pay and the prices of the goods that they buy and sell changes in agents perceptions of these laws of motion or constraints will in general produce changes in the schedules that describe the choices they make as a function of the information that they possess until very recently received dynamic econometric practice ignored this principle the practice of dynamic econometrics should be changed so that it is consistent with the principle that people s rules of choice are influenced by their constraints this is a substantial undertaking and involves major adjustments in the ways that we formulate estimate and simulate econometric models

how does advertising depend on competition evidence from u s brewing the relationship between market structure and advertising has been extensively studied but has generated sharply opposing theoretical predictions as well as inconclusive empirical findings likely because of severe endogeneity concerns we exploit the 2008 merger of miller and coors in the u s brewing industry to examine how changes in local concentration affect firms advertising behavior well established regional preferences over beer brands and the sharp increase in concentration from the merger make this an excellent setting to analyze this question we find a significant positive effect of local market concentration on advertising expenditures a 100 point increase in the herfindahl hirschmann index measure of concentration increases advertising per capita by about 5 our findings shed light on how and when firms choose to deploy advertising the online appendix is available at https doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2017 2889 this paper was accepted by eric anderson marketing

market share market value and innovation in a panel of british manufacturing firms this paper examines the empirical relationship between technological innovations market share and stock market value new developments in the estimation of dynamic count data models are used to control for unobserved firm specific heterogeneity we find a robust and positive effect of market share on observable headcounts of innovations and patents although increased product market competition in the industry tends to stimulate innovative activity furthermore the impact of innovation on market value is larger for firms with higher market shares we argue that our results are consistent with models where high market share firms have incentives to pre emptively innovate

durable goods monopolists durable goods monopolists face special problems because the sale of their products creates a secondhand market not controlled by the monopolist to the extent the monopolist is able to rent his product rather than sell it or to make binding promises about his future production such problems are ameliorated given the inability to do the above the monopolist is led to producing goods less durable than those produced by either competitive firms or monopolist returns a reverse averch johnson result that monopolist sellers may invest less in fixed costs including plant modernization and research and development than would the renters is shown it is also shown that even though sellers have less monopoly power than renters and nondurable goods monopolists it is possible that the seller will cause a greater deadweight loss than the other types of monopolies

managing channel profits a channel of distribution consists of different channel members each having his own decision variables however each channel member s decisions do affect the other channel members profits and as a consequence actions a lack of coordination of these decisions can lead to undesirable consequences for example in the simple manufacturer retailer consumer channel uncoordinated and independent channel members decisions over margins result in a higher price paid by the consumer than if those decisions were coordinated in addition the ensuing suboptimal volume leads to lower profits for both the manufacturer and the retailer this paper explores the problems inherent in channel coordination we address the following questions what is the effect of channel coordination what causes a lack of coordination in the channel how difficult is it to achieve channel coordination what mechanisms exist which can achieve channel coordination what are the strengths and weaknesses of these mechanism what is the role of nonprice variables e g manufacturer advertising retailer shelf space in coordination does the lack of coordination affect normative implications from in store experimentation can quantity discounts be a coordination mechanism are some marketing practices actually disguised quantity discounts we review the literature and present a simple formulation illustrating the roots of the coordination problem we then derive the form of the quantity discount schedule that results in optimum channel profits this article was originally published in marketing science volume 2 issue 3 pages 239 272 in 1983

how much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate abstract a dsge model is used to examine whether including the exchange rate in the central bank s policy rule can improve economic performance smoothing the exchange rate helps both financially robust economies and financially vulnerable emerging economies in handling risk premium shocks and given a small weight placed on the exchange rate the effects on inflation and output volatility are minimal with demand and cost push shocks financially vulnerable economies are especially likely to benefit from exchange rate smoothing due to perverse movements of the exchange rate they experience when hit by demand shocks and being more prone to risk premium shocks

upstream innovation and product variety in the u s home pc market this article investigates the welfare implications of the rapid innovation in central processing units cpus and asks whether it results in inefficient elimination of basic personal computer pc products i analyse a game in which firms make multiple discrete product choices and tackle challenges such as partial identification and sample selection estimation results demonstrate that the demand for pcs is highly segmented and that fixed costs consume a substantial portion of the per unit producer profit the estimated model implies that intel s introduction of its pentium m chip contributed significantly to the growth of the mobile pc segment and to consumer welfare the lion s share of the benefits to consumers was enjoyed by the 20 least price sensitive consumers i also find that the pentium m crowded out the pentium iii and pentium 4 technologies and that the benefits to consumers from keeping those older products on the shelf would have been comparable to the added fixed costs while total welfare cannot be increased by keeping older technologies on the shelf such a policy would have allowed the benefits from innovation to trickle down to price sensitive households improving their access to mobile computing

divestiture requirements as a tool for competition policy a case from the swedish beer market we investigate the effect of divestitures on prices and welfare following the carlsberg pripps merger in the swedish beer market both difference in difference estimation and simulations using a random coefficients logit model suggest that divestitures are important for dampening price increases prices of divested brands fall by around 3 and the predicted price increase for carlsberg falls from 3 to 1 6 as a result of the divestitures to guide practice on divestitures we investigate the role of the recipient and the number and characteristics of the divested products by simulating post merger outcomes for all relevant cases we find that in this setting with large multiproduct firms the competition authority s most effective means to dampen adverse post merger outcomes are to aim for a small recipient firm and attain a large number of divested products enforcing larger divestitures in terms of market share and raising the average cross price elasticity between the merging parties divested and retained products strengthen the dampening effect further

measuring the sensitivity of parameter estimates to estimation moments we propose a local measure of the relationship between parameter estimates and the moments of the data they depend on our measure can be computed at negligible cost even for complex structural models we argue that reporting this measure can increase the transparency of structural estimates making it easier for readers to predict the way violations of identifying assumptions would affect the results when the key assumptions are orthogonality between error terms and excluded instruments we show that our measure provides a natural extension of the omitted variables bias formula for nonlinear models we illustrate with applications to published articles in several fields of economics

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

demand for differentiated durable products the case of the u s computer printer market i introduction this paper aims to provide a theoretical and empirical description of consumer behavior in a dynamic market for differentiated durable goods the computer hardware industry serves as an example of the type of market we consider markets for computer systems and components as well as for many other high technology products exhibit some striking similarities that are of particular concern for an empirical economist as follows products are differentiated in multiple dimensions in addition to price products are durable yielding consumption services over multiple periods product quality rapidly improves over time empirical work on estimating differentiated product demand systems has been dominated by static discrete choice models with random utility see berry levinsohn and pakes 1995 goldberg 1995 and nevo 2001 among others however markets for durable goods exhibit several features at odds with their assumption of myopic consumer behavior first traditional static discrete choice models implicitly assume that consumers participate in the market every period choosing one of the available products or an outside option thus the fraction of consumers who do not buy any product in a given period could only be explained by the high value they assign to the outside alternative for durable goods however purchases are made infrequently and result in a consumer s exiting the market for a significant period of time hence the model needs to account for consumers outflow from the market arising from their purchase decisions second a static framework may give a misleading picture of the aggregate sales time pattern in a dynamic industry in many markets for durable products it is not uncommon to see rapidly improving product quality and falling prices given any reasonable set of consumer preferences over the product characteristics space static discrete choice models for such an industry will tend to predict an upward trend in aggregate sales this fails to account for a variety of patterns commonly seen in the data third the evolution of product quality leads to the possibility of intertemporal demand substitution by forgoing a current purchase the consumer retains the option to buy a potentially better product in the future hence the decision of when to buy may be just as important for consumers as the decision of what to buy this trade off cannot be accounted for in the static framework the purpose of this paper is to remedy these shortcomings of static discrete choice models in durable goods markets with particular attention paid to technological change and the dynamics of new products adoption the paper presents a dynamic model of consumer demand for differentiated durable products that explicitly accounts for consumers expectations of future product quality and consumers outflow from the market that arises endogenously from their purchase decisions in this model the consumer faces a sequence of static discrete choice problems over a non stationary choice set we show that for a subclass of random utility models which include the multinomial logit and the mcfadden 1978 generalized extreme value gev model there exists a scalar valued sufficient statistic that determines the value of the option to postpone the purchase this allows us to model industry evolution over a vastly reduced state space and to formalize the consumer s decision of when to buy as an optimal stopping problem a solution to that problem defines the hazard rate of product adoptions while the nested discrete choice model determines the alternative specific purchase probabilities integrating individual decisions over the population distribution generates rich dynamics of aggregate and product level sales the paper proceeds to present monte carlo evidence that ignoring the time dimension of consumer choice will induce a downward bias in the estimates of consumer preferences over quality sometimes reversing the sign of the coefficients

decentralized procurement in light of strategic inventories the centralization versus decentralization choice is perhaps the quintessential organizational structure decision in the operations realm this choice is particularly critical when it comes to the procurement function why firms may opt to decentralize procurement has been often studied and confirmed to be a multifaceted choice this paper complements existing studies by detailing the trade offs in the centralization versus decentralization decision in light of firms strategic use of inventories to influence supplier pricing in particular we demonstrate that a firm s decision to cede procurement choices to its individual divisions can help moderate inventory levels and provide a natural salve on supply chain frictions this paper was accepted by serguei netessine operations management

semiparametric estimates of monetary policy effects string theory revisited we develop flexible semiparametric time series methods for the estimation of the causal effect of monetary policy on macroeconomic aggregates our estimator captures the average causal response to discrete policy interventions in a macrodynamic setting without the need for assumptions about the process generating macroeconomic outcomes the proposed estimation strategy based on propensity score weighting easily accommodates asymmetric and nonlinear responses using this estimator we show that monetary tightening has clear effects on the yield curve and on economic activity monetary accommodation however appears to generate less pronounced responses from both estimates for recent financial crisis years display a similarly dampened response to monetary accommodation

dynamic demand for new and used durable goods without physical depreciation the case of japanese video games we develop a new dynamic demand model for new and used durable goods and quantify the impact of used goods markets on producers profits and consumer welfare

long run market configurations in a dynamic quality ladder model with externalities abstract we study the impact of standard setting by introducing an externality that increases product compatibility in the presence of asymmetric returns to investment in a dynamic quality ladder type model we classify the long run multi modal probability distributions over different market structures that arise from this model in some cases the lagging firm may remain in the market in the long run depending on the strength of the externality in the case where only the laggard invests in compatibility it is possible that the laggard becomes a monopolist if the leader has a relatively low r d capability and the two firms are almost symmetric in this same regard this variety of multi modal long run distributions may have important consequences for the estimation and the simulation of this class of dynamic models

comment managing channel profits comment in a recent paper in this journal jeuland and shugan jeuland a s shugan 1983 managing channel profits marketing sci 2 summer 239 272 proposed a quantity discount schedule as a way of coordinating a channel as they put it on p 253 of their paper a quantity discount schedule which would fix the retailer s and hence the manufacturer s profits to some fixed linear function of total channel profits would lead the channel to maximize profits the purpose of this note is to show that a quantity discount schedule is not necessary for channel coordination

a comparison of forecast performance between federal reserve staff forecasts simple reduced form models and a dsge model this paper considers the forecast performance of the federal reserve staff five atheoretical reduced form models and an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model focusing on the late 1990s through 2001 our analysis finds that the dsge model and atheoretical models forecast real gdp growth better than the federal reserve staff during this period by an economically significant margin we find smaller differences across each method in the quality of inflation forecasts over this period these results provide some support to the notion that richly specified dsge models such the one used in this paper belong in the forecasting toolbox of a central bank rochelle m edge rochelle m edge frb gov michael t kiley michael t kiley frb gov and jeanphilippe laforte jean philippe laforte frb gov are affiliated with the macroeconomic and quantitative studies section at the board of governors of the federal reserve system this paper represents ongoing work in the section on developing dge models that can be useful for policy analysis nevertheless any views expressed in this paper remain solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the board of governors of the federal reserve system or it staff all errors are our own

durable good monopolies with rational expectations and replacement sales a monopoly producer of a durable good is examined under the previously uninvoked assumption that the good depreciates and hence that replacement sales must occur if a fixed stock of the good is to be maintained we find two ways in which the no depreciation result that the monopoly will always at least eventually produce a stock equal to that produced by a competitive market may not hold if the length of the trading period is nonzero the limiting stock produced by the firm will be lower than the competitive stock to ensure the profitability of future replacement sales if the firm is able to constrain its production capacity it may choose a constraint that always binds in the sense that it will be impossible for the firm to achieve a stock equal to the competitive stock

state dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs in such a setting optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy yet while widely discussed statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models this paper develops a new tractable theoretical state dependent pricing framework we use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand and the interest sensitivity of money demand

exchange rate based stabilisation durables consumption and the stylised facts in this article we show that a model featuring durable consumer goods imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign assets and weak credibility can explain the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the stylised facts associated with exchange rate based stabilisation including the tremendous increase in real interest rates following a temporary reduction in the crawl total consumption spending rises 14 26 the real exchange rate appreciates 20 37 and the current account deficit swells to 10 15 of gross domestic product despite large capital inflows the real interest rate increases from 10 to 20 100

managing strategic inventories via manufacturer to consumer rebates manufacturer to consumer rebates are a staple of modern supply chains such rebates are typically viewed as a means of price discrimination because of partial redemption by consumers however the proliferation of universally redeemed instant rebates suggests the practice may be motivated by additional considerations an issue we tackle in this paper our results demonstrate that consumer rebates can be particularly useful when a supply chain encounters inefficiencies stemming from strategic inventory buildup by retailers wary of high wholesale prices a retailer may hold excess inventory to convey a lower willingness to pay in future interactions and thereby strategically undercut future wholesale prices as a retaliatory consequence the manufacturer sets high near term wholesale prices the pull promotion from consumer rebates encourages more timely retail sales and in doing so undercuts but does not eliminate the retailer s strategic inventories in other words the introduction of consumer rebates can serve as an enticement for retailers to sell not just for consumers to buy perhaps surprisingly we find that the manufacturer retailer and consumers alike all benefit from the use of rebates this despite the fact that the manufacturer uses the rebates in self interest and as a strategic weapon this paper was accepted by yossi aviv operations management

manufacturers channel structures when selling asymmetric competing products abstract manufacturers often face the fundamental channel structure decision namely whether to sell their products directly to consumers or indirectly through an intermediary to address this issue extensive research has analyzed equilibrium channel structures for competing equally substitutable products however in reality many competing products are asymmetric in both substitutability and brand equity in this paper we study how these two asymmetric characteristics affect the equilibrium channel structures of manufacturers selling competing products following some recent studies we adopt a refined consumer demand model derived from the representative consumer utility function based on this model we examine three possible types of competition between the two supply chains cournot quantity competition bertrand price competition and bertrand cournot competition we find that brand equity substitutability as well as the type of competition all play important roles in determining the equilibrium channel structures specifically in equilibrium a manufacturer always sells directly when its rival competes on quantity moreover when there is sufficient asymmetry in either brand equity or substitutability manufacturers tend to sell directly our results demonstrate that the benefits of selling indirectly shown in previous studies depend critically on the assumptions of equally substitutable products and bertrand competition

the economics of predation what drives pricing when there is learning by doing predatory pricing a deliberate strategy of pricing aggressively in order to eliminate competitors is one of the more contentious areas of antitrust policy and its existence and efficacy are widely debated the purpose of this paper is to formally characterize predatory pricing in a modern industry dynamics framework that endogenizes competitive advantage and industry structure our framework encompasses important phenomena such as learning by doing network effects switching costs dynamic demand and certain types of adjustment costs due to its prominent role in legal cases involving alleged predation we examine learning by doing in more detail we first show that predation like behavior arises routinely in our learning by doing model equilibria involving predation like behavior typically coexist with equilibria involving much less aggressive pricing to disentangle predatory pricing from mere competition for efficiency on a learning curve we next decompose the equilibrium pricing condition and develop alternative characterizations of a firm s predatory pricing incentives we finally measure the impact of these incentives on industry structure conduct and performance we show that forcing a firm to ignore the predatory incentives in setting its price can have a large impact and that this impact stems from eliminating equilibria with predation like behavior along with the predation like behavior however a fair amount of competition for the market is eliminated

an interest rate spread based measure of turkish monetary policy a coherent method to measure the effectiveness of a monetary policy improves the monetary authority s management capacity and renders the possibility of applying sound policies prior to and during a crisis the trend in employing complicated and ambiguity bearing unconventional monetary tools in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis has increased the value of such a method the aim of this article is to introduce a coherent and consistent monetary policy evaluation method for turkey accordingly we suggest that innovations in the spread between overnight interest rates and treasury auction interest rates are informative for exchange rate output and prices empirical evidence for this identification reveals that positive innovation in spread implying a tight monetary policy measure decreases output temporarily permanently decreases prices and appreciates local currency this result is also robust to alternative specifications

multi period modeling of two way price commitment under price dependent demand abstract this paper examines the use of price commitment policies in dynamic contracting in multiple period finite time horizons two specific forms of price commitment are considered one on the part of the retailer through a retail fixed markup contract and one on the part of the manufacturer through a price protection contract optimal policies for each form of price commitment are analytically derived as are optimal policies for the traditional price only and centralized supply chain scenarios that we use as comparisons we prove that optimal retail price and order size solutions exist in each period under the assumption of non increasing price dependent demand we show that the existence of retailer inventory between periods causes the optimal policies to differ from a static single period model further we show that a supplier offers a price protection policy as a signal to the retailer to resolve the gaming that naturally occurs under price only this effectively decouples the multi period dynamic contracting setting into repeated single period scenarios however the resulting behavior can actually inhibit supply chain performance on the retail commitment side we find that retail fixed markup policies are quite effective in improving supply chain efficiency we show that such policies can lead to pareto improvement over price only contracts and can even coordinate the supply chain in some situations

spatial price equilibrium with information asymmetry in quality and minimum quality standards abstract a spatial price equilibrium model with information asymmetry in quality is developed in both static and dynamic versions producers at the supply markets are aware of the quality of their products whereas consumers located at the demand markets are aware only of the average quality of the products that are shipped to their demand markets minimum quality standards are also captured in order to assess the impacts of such policy interventions we establish qualitative results in the form of existence uniqueness and stability analysis an algorithm is proposed along with a convergence proof it is then utilized to compute solutions to a spectrum of spatial price equilibrium numerical examples in order to explore the impacts of information asymmetry under different scenarios the numerical examples which are of quite general functional forms reveal that as the number of supply markets increases the anonymizing effect leads to a decrease in the average quality on the other hand as the number of demand markets increases the pressure to improve quality increases and the average quality increases finally we demonstrate that after the imposition of minimum quality standards the average quality at the demand markets increases and the prices also increase

intertemporal price discrimination with complementary products e books and e readers this paper studies intertemporal price discrimination ipd with complementary products in the context of e readers and e books using individual level data 2008 2012 i estimate a dynamic demand

a framework for dynamic oligopoly in concentrated industries in this article we introduce a new computationally tractable framework for ericson and pakes style dynamic oligopoly models that overcomes the computational complexity involved in computing markov perfect equilibrium mpe first we define a new equilibrium concept that we call moment based markov equilibrium mme in which firms keep track of their own state the detailed state of dominant firms and few moments of the distribution of fringe firms states second we provide guidelines to use mme in applied work and illustrate with an application how it can endogenize the market structure in a dynamic industry model even with hundreds of firms third we develop a series of results that provide support for using mme as an approximation we present numerical experiments showing that mme approximates mpe for important classes of models then we introduce novel unilateral deviation error bounds that can be used to test the accuracy of mme as an approximation in large scale settings overall our new framework opens the door to study new issues in industry dynamics

leaders and followers perspectives on the nordic model and the economics of innovation abstract what kinds of social and economic systems are most conducive to innovation we formulate a simple model in which countries can close the gap with the technological leader but where the cost of doing so may be so high that the country chooses to remain laggards observed disparities in productivity may be the result of a recognition that the cost of closing the gap exceeds benefit and there may therefore exist an international equilibrium in which there are leaders and followers even if it is granted that the united states is the leader and scandinavia are followers there are theoretical grounds for arguing that the nordic model may in fact be better for innovation suggesting that if the us adopted some of the nordic institutions innovations would be higher and societal welfare would be improved even more

the role of obsolescence and inventory costs in providing commitment this paper modifies the cournot and stackelberg models to allow the firms to sell less than they have produced and to store the unsold portion of their output as inventory even if one of the firms can choose its output before the other if it is costless to carry unsold goods forward then the cournot outcome emerges we show however that costs of carrying the inventory forward endow the firms with a limited degree of commitment to sell what they have produced this partially restores the first mover advantage if the firms choose their outputs simultaneously the cournot outcome emerges and has locally consistent conjectures

marketing driven channel coordination with revenue sharing contracts under price promotion to end customers this paper explores the equilibrium behavior of a basic supplier retailer distribution channel with and without revenue sharing contracts under price promotion to end customers three types of promotional demand patterns characterized by different features of dynamic price sensitivity are considered to rationalize price promotional effects on end customer demands under such a retail price promotion scheme this work develops a basic model to investigate decentralized channel members equilibrium decisions in pricing and logistics operations using a two stage stackelberg game approach extending from the basic model this work further derives the equilibrium solutions of the dyadic members under channel coordination with revenue sharing contracts analytical results show that under certain conditions both the supplier and retailer can gain more profits through revenue sharing contracts by means of appropriate promotional pricing strategies moreover the supplier should provide additional economic incentives to the retailer furthermore a counter profit revenue sharing chain effect is found in the illustrative examples such a phenomenon infers that the more the retailer requests to share from a unit of sale the more it may lose under the revenue sharing supply chain coordination scheme

inflation targeting in colombia 2002 2012 proquest denotes formulae omitted over the last twenty years nearly thirty countries have adopted inflation targeting regimes to conduct monetary policy in addition to the announce ment of specific inflation targets inflation targeting regimes have been characterized by increased transparency enhanced communication with the public and explicit accountability mechanisms moreover their policy strategy is based on setting short run interest rates rather than on targeting monetary aggregates in principle inflation targeting regimes also increase exchange rate flexibility the performance of inflation targeting regimes has been a matter of exten sive research for instance ball and sheridan and lin and ye conclude that in industrialized countries inflation targeting did not make a difference in inflation and output behavior 1 the spirit of these conclusions is echoed in two recent surveys on the performance of inflation targeting 2 another line of research on inflation targeting in industrialized countries studies its impact on sacrifice ratios output losses per point of inflation during monetary driven disinflations according to proponents inflation targeting anchors inflation expectations and it should thus allow for less costly disinflation processes while goncalves and carvalho find strong evidence supporting this hypoth esis in developed countries brito shows that the results are not robust to the inclusion of time effects 3 de roux and hofstetter conclude that inflation targeting allows for less costly disinflations even when controlling for time effects but only if disinflations are slow 4 for fast disinflations it does not yield less costly disinflations for developing countries the evidence is less conclusive goncalves and salles find that inflation targeting allows for a greater reduction in inflation and lower output volatility a result confirmed by lin and ye 5 brito and bystedt however suggest that the greater inflation reduction came at the expense of poorer output growth 6 in the surveys walsh concludes that evidence on inflation targeting in developing countries is clearly favorable to the regime while ball is more skeptical calling the outcomes inconclusive 7more recently de carvalho filho shows that during the recent global finan cial crisis inflation targeting nations outperformed non inflation targeting nations on several dimensions for both developed and developing economies their policy response was more aggressive they allowed the exchange rate to more effectively absorb the shocks and they recorded a stronger macro economic performance output industrial production and unemployment 8the vast empirical literature comparing performance across different mon etary regimes stands in contrast to the relatively scant research on the tools strategies goals and dilemmas faced by inflation targeting central banks espe cially in developing countries while there is good information on the overall comparative performance of these regimes little information is available on the political economy dimensions the increasing variety of instruments and goals of inflation targeting central banks and the challenges that lie ahead for them in this paper we fill part of this gap by examining the experience of the cen tral bank of colombia banco de la republica over the last decade a period of consolidation and innovation of its inflation targeting strategy colombia is one of five large latin american economies that have well established inflation targeting regimes along with brazil chile mexico and peru all of these countries adopted inflation targeting more than ten years ago yet their performance tools and goals have not been extensively studied cen tral banks in the region have used a variety of tools beyond short run policy interest rates including liquidity and reserve requirements credit provisions capital controls and interventions in the foreign exchange markets

macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation we describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation we point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation of macro models and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate we argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy

strategic inventories in vertical contracts classical reasons for carrying inventory include fixed nonlinear production or procurement costs lead times nonstationary or uncertain supply demand and capacity constraints the last decade has seen active research in supply chain coordination focusing on the role of incentive contracts to achieve first best levels of inventory an extensive literature in industrial organization that studies incentives for vertical controls largely ignores the effect of inventories does the ability to carry inventory influence the problem of vertical control conversely can inventories arise purely due to incentive effects this paper explicitly considers both incentives and inventories and their interplay in a dynamic model of an upstream firm supplier and a downstream firm buyer who can carry inventories in our model none of the classical reasons for carrying inventory exists however as we prove the buyer s optimal strategy in equilibrium is to carry inventories and the supplier is unable to prevent

competition imitation and growth with step by step innovation is more intense product market competition and imitation good or bad for growth this question is addressed in the context of an endogenous growth model with step by step innovations in which technological laggards must first catch up with the leading edge technology before battling for technological leadership in the future in contrast to earlier schumpeterian models in which innovations are always made by outsider firms who earn no rents if they fail to innovate and become monopolies if they do innovate here we find first that the usual schumpeterian effect of more intense product market competition pmc is almost always outweighed by the increased incentive for firms to innovate in order to escape competition so that pmc has a positive effect on growth second that a little imitation is almost always growth enhancing as it promotes more frequent neck and neck competition but too much imitation is unambiguously growth reducing the model thus points to complementary roles for competition anti trust policy and patent policy

price and financial stability in modern central banking although the first central banks were created more than three hundred years ago it was not until the mid nineteenth century that central banks were given the monopoly power to issue banknotes and to act as lender of last resort thereafter central banks played the role of liquidity provider and lender of last resort these tasks were intended to allow a proper functioning of the payment system so financial stability was implicitly a major concern for central banks over time central banks moved toward achieving price stability from monetary stability to controlling inflation financial stability became a secondary goal if a goal at all this has not been the case in emerging market economies which have been affected by recurrent financial crises indeed financial crises like those of chile in the early 1980s or in mexico and asian countries in the 1990s are not radically different from the recent crisis in advanced economies the complexity may have changed but the original causes had many similarities 1 some years ago it was much more frequent to find central bankers concerned about financial stability in emerging countries than in advanced ones however as a consequence of the global financial crisis the issue of financial stability has reemerged as a top priority for policymakers in this paper i discuss the issue of price and financial stability in central banking i first explore the conduct of central banks in achieving price stability in particular in the context of inflation targeting and then move on to how the financial stability mandate has to be included as a key component of modern central banking i end with a few concluding remarks central banks and price stabilityas mentioned above central banks in advanced economies have long been focused mainly on ensuring low inflation moreover some scholars and practitioners argued that price stability should be the only objective of central banks so that the goal would be more credible and monetary policy more effective in achieving stability how exactly or operationally to achieve this target was an open question however some central banks tried to target monetary aggregates others to peg nominal exchange rates and others to use an eclectic mix of indicators two decades ago some central banks started conducting monetary policy targeting a specific value or range for the inflation rate this trend started with new zealand in 1990 and was followed by canada the united kingdom australia and sweden in the early 1990s this is a case in which policy development led academic advances progress on the academic front provided further impetus to the adoption of inflation targets as new models were developed to provide the theoretical underpinnings of inflation targets and the basis to conduct empirical work 2this view was further justified by the success of monetary policy around the world in providing stability not only on the inflation front but also in activity and employment the evidence that output volatility declined significantly in the united states after the mid 1980s was first reported by kim and nelson and later called the great moderation by stock and watson 3 several factors could be behind this trend such as technical progress better policies deeper financial markets and sheer good luck although there is no final verdict evidence points to the role of better macroeconomic policies 4 emerging market economies also enjoyed a great moderation but it came in the second half of the 1990s much later than in developed economies this coincided with the time in which inflation was conquered supporting the hypothesis that it was good policies rather than good luck 5 it is easy to discredit the great moderation in the current juncture however the resilience of emerging market economies to the global crisis was impressive indeed emerging markets had a recession but much milder than in the past and with a remarkable recovery

dynamics of consumer demand for new durable goods most new consumer durable goods experience rapid prices declines and quality improvements suggesting the importance of modeling dynamics this paper specifies a dynamic model of consumer preferences for new durable goods with persistently heterogeneous consumer tastes rational expectations and repeat purchases over time we estimate the model on the digital camcorder industry using panel data on prices sales and characteristics we find that the 1 year elasticity in response to a transitory industrywide price shock is about 25 percent less than the 1 month elasticity standard cost of living indices overstate welfare gain in later periods due to a changing composition of buyers

does amd spur intel to innovate more we estimate an equilibrium model of dynamic oligopoly with durable goods and endogenous innovation to examine the effect of competition on innovation in the personal computer microprocessor industry firms make dynamic pricing and investment decisions while consumers make dynamic upgrade decisions anticipating product improvements and price declines consistent with schumpeter we find that the rate of innovation in product quality would be 4 2 percent higher without amd present though higher prices would reduce consumer surplus by 12 billion per year comparative statics illustrate the role of product durability and provide implications of the model for other industries

has u s monetary policy tracked the efficient interest rate abstract interest rate decisions by central banks are universally discussed in terms of taylor rules which describe policy rates as responding to inflation and some measure of the output gap we show that an alternative specification of monetary policy in which the interest rate tracks the wicksellian efficient rate of return as the primary indicator of real activity fits the u s data better than otherwise identical taylor rules this result holds for a variety of specifications of the other ingredients of the policy rule including the output gap and of private agents behavior

keeping it fresh strategic product redesigns and welfare abstract product redesigns happen across virtually all types of products yet there is little evidence on the market and welfare effects of redesigns we develop a model of redesign decisions in a dynamic oligopoly model and use it to analyze redesign activity in the u s automobile market we find automobile model redesigns are frequent despite an estimated average cost around 1 billion our estimates also suggest that redesigns lead to large increases in profits and welfare due to the strong preferences consumers have for redesigns we show that welfare would be improved if redesign competition were reduced allowing redesign activity to be more responsive to the planned obsolescence channel the net effect of these changes would reduce total redesigns by roughly 10 increasing total welfare by roughly 3 the high valuation that consumers put on newly designed models drives frequent redesigns and gives automobile manufacturers fairly substantial market power with a 2 to 1 ratio of firm profits to consumer surplus

the failure of models that predict failure distance incentives and defaults statistical default models widely used to assess default risk fail to account for a change in the relations between different variables resulting from an underlying change in agent behavior we demonstrate this phenomenon using data on securitized subprime mortgages issued in the period 1997 2006 as the level of securitization increases lenders have an incentive to originate loans that rate high based on characteristics that are reported to investors even if other unreported variables imply a lower borrower quality consistent with this behavior we find that over time lenders set interest rates only on the basis of variables that are reported to investors ignoring other credit relevant information as a result among borrowers with similar reported characteristics over time the set that receives loans becomes worse along the unreported information dimension this change in lender behavior alters the data generating process by transforming the mapping from observables to loan defaults to illustrate this effect we show that the interest rate on a loan becomes a worse predictor of default as securitization increases moreover a statistical default model estimated in a low securitization period breaks down in a high securitization period in a systematic manner it underpredicts defaults among borrowers for whom soft information is more valuable regulations that rely on such models to assess default risk could therefore be undermined by the actions of market participants

estimating the economic impacts of power supply interruptions abstract the cost of power system rationing which is a crucial parameter for determining optimal resilience investments is usually estimated using reduced form linear models or ordinary input output analysis however such methods do not properly address either consumers rational reactions to rationing policy or policy design nonlinearities to solve this problem this paper estimates the effects of power system rationing using a general equilibrium model the model solution shows that the power cut distribution among industries is a critical variable for quantifying policy effects and provides insights into optimal policy design

exclusive contracts and market dominance we propose a new theory of exclusive dealing the theory is based on the assumption that a dominant firm has a competitive advantage over its rivals and that the buyers willingness to pay for the product is private information in this setting the dominant firm can impose contractual restrictions on buyers without necessarily compensating them implying that exclusive dealing contracts can be both profitable and anticompetitive we discuss the general implications of the theory for competition policy and illustrate by examples its applicability to antitrust cases jel d21 d43 d82 d86 k21 l13 l40

finance inflation and employment a post keynesian kaleckian analysis the purpose of this paper is to contribute to the post keynesian kaleckian macroeconomic literature we develop a macroeconomic model that explicitly integrates the role of borrowing and cash payment commitments on outstanding debt interest plus principal repayment into the consumption and investment expenditures as well as into the inflation generating process we explore the way that finance influences the distribution effects of inflation in the demand side of a money credit using economy we suggest a new phillips curve that encapsulates the impact of financial commitments on wage and profit claims we argue that high debt and cash payment commitments are likely to be associated with a positive demand side effect of inflation on the rate of employment and that they might be conducive to a negative supply side effect of employment on the inflation rate the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved

estimating dynamic games of oligopolistic competition an experimental investigation we evaluate standard assumptions in the estimation of dynamic oligopoly models with laboratory data using an entry exit game we estimate structural parameters under the assumption that the data are generated by a markov perfect equilibrium and subsequently predict counterfactual behavior if behavior was collusive however the assumption would be violated and one would mispredict counterfactuals the laboratory allows us to compare predicted behavior to true counterfactuals implemented as treatments our main finding is that prediction errors due to collusion are modest in size we also document a different deviation from equilibrium behavior inertia that can lead to large prediction errors

pioneers imitators and generics a simulation model of schumpeterian competition a computer simulation model in the tradition of evolutionary models of technical change is developed in this paper it focuses on r d competition in new product introductions and is based on data for the u s pharmaceutical industry during the 1970s the sensitivity of innovation levels to the rate of generic competition regulatory review time and patent life is examined in the computer simulation experiments these factors are found to have significant long run effects on industry structure and innovation levels

menu costs and phillips curves this paper develops a model of a monetary economy in which individual firms are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks as well as general inflation sellers can change price only by incurring a real menu cost we calibrate this cost and the variance and autocorrelation of the idiosyncratic shock using a new u s data set of individual prices due to klenow and kryvtsov the prediction of the calibrated model for the effects of high inflation on the frequency of price changes accords well with international evidence from various studies the model is also used to conduct numerical experiments on the economy s response to various shocks in none of the simulations we conducted did monetary shocks induce large or persistent real responses

rethinking macroeconomics what failed and how to repair it the standard macroeconomic models have failed by all the most important tests of scientific theory they did not predict that the financial crisis would happen and when it did they understated its effects monetary authorities allowed bubbles to grow and focused on keeping inflation low partly because the standard models suggested that low inflation was necessary and almost sufficient for efficiency and growth after the crisis broke policymakers relying on the models floundered notwithstanding the diversity of macroeconomics the sum of these failures points to the need for a fundamental re examination of the models and a reassertion of the lessons of modern general equilibrium theory that were seemingly forgotten in the years leading up to the crisis this paper first describes the failures of the standard models in broad terms and then develops the economics of deep downturns and shows that such downturns are endogenous further the paper argues that there have been systemic changes to the structure of the economy that made the economy more vulnerable to crisis contrary to what the standard models argued finally the paper contrasts the policy implications of our framework with those of the standard models

innovation and technology diffusion in competitive supply chains abstract innovations in consumer products frequently rely on technological advances across multiple tiers in a supply chain considering the consumer market demand and downstream investment conditions as input we model a game in a two tier supply chain where downstream firms choose to adopt different levels of an upstream technology and an upstream technology leader determines its pricing policy we identify two necessary but distinct elements for the successful development adoption and diffusion of upstream technologies that are sold to lower tiers as components within final products 1 the level of technology demanded by the market we develop a measure technological potential which describes the highest level of an upstream technology demanded by consumer markets 2 a sufficiently rich return to an upstream innovator as a function of different levels of technology from these two elements we show that the relative magnitudes of two competing sets of consumer market factors determine the technological potential whereas the overall magnitude of the factors in both sets determines the return to the upstream developer we discuss how this difference in consumer market factors influence on these two elements may determine how different technologies fare in the supply chain our results have managerial implications for investors in research and development project selection in identifying profitable technologies that are also demanded at higher capability levels and for governments in defining more targeted public policies for example in choosing the right tier of a supply chain to provide subsidies to encourage market support for certain technologies

demand uncertainty inventories and resale price maintenance we show that a manufacturer facing uncertain demand and selling through a competitive retail market may wish to support adequate retail inventories by preventing the emergence of discount retailers in our model discounters offer low prices made possible by low probability of being saddled with unsold inventories in the event of slack demand full price retailers are compensated for a higher probability of unsold inventories by a higher retail price when they sell we show that preventing discounting increases the manufacturer s wholesale demand and profits and we delineate demand conditions under which equilibrium inventory holding and consumer welfare increase

learning by doing organizational forgetting and industry dynamics learning by doing and organizational forgetting have been shown to be important in a variety of industrial settings this paper provides a general model of dynamic competition that accounts for these economic fundamentals and shows how they shape industry structure and dynamics previously obtained results regarding the dominance properties of flrms pricing behavior no longer hold in this more general setting we show that forgetting does not simply negate learning rather learning and forgetting are distinct economic forces in particular a model with learning and forgetting can give rise to aggressive pricing behavior market dominance and multiple equilibria whereas a model with learning alone cannot

the impact of demand uncertainty on consumer subsidies for green technology adoption this paper studies government subsidies for green technology adoption while considering the manufacturing industry s response government subsidies offered directly to consumers impact the supplier s production and pricing decisions our analysis expands the current understanding of the price setting newsvendor model incorporating the external influence from the government who is now an additional player in the system we quantify how demand uncertainty impacts the various players government industry and consumers when designing policies we further show that for convex demand functions an increase in demand uncertainty leads to higher production quantities and lower prices resulting in lower profits for the supplier with this in mind one could expect consumer surplus to increase with uncertainty in fact we show that this is not always the case and that the uncertainty impact on consumer surplus depends on the trade off between lower prices and the possibility of underserving customers with h

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

the taylor rule and optimal monetary policy where it denotes the fed s operating target for the federal funds rate pt is the inflation rate measured by the gdp deflator yt is the log of real gdp and y t is the log of potential output identified empirically with a linear trend the rule has since been subject to considerable attention both as an account of actual policy in the united states and elsewhere and as a prescription for desirable policy taylor argues for the rule s normative significance both on the basis of simulations and on the ground that it describes u s policy in a period in which monetary policy is widely judged to have been unusually successful taylor 1999 suggesting that the rule is worth adopting as a principle of behavior here i wish to consider to what extent this prescription resembles the sort of policy that economic theory would recommend i consider the question in the context of a simple but widely used optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism which allows one to reach clear conclusions about economic welfare the model is highly stylized but incorporates important features of more realistic models and allows me to make several points that are of more general validity out of concern for the robustness of the conclusions reached the analysis here addresses only broad qualitative features of the taylor rule and attempts to identify features of a desirable policy rule that are likely to hold under a variety of model specifications

on the mechanics of new keynesian models abstract the monetary transmission mechanism in new keynesian models is put to scrutiny we show that contrary to the conventional view the transmission mechanism does not operate through the real interest rate channel instead equilibrium inflation is approximately determined as in a flexible price model output is then pinned down by the new keynesian phillips curve the real rate only reflects the feasibility to keep consumption smooth when income changes contractionary monetary policy shocks reducing output and inflation are consistent with an increase decline or no change in the real rate consistency with the real rate channel is observational not structural

vertical contracts in a supply chain and the bullwhip effect this paper shows that decentralized supply chains in which upstream firms use linear wholesale prices may experience lower upstream production and downstream sales volatility than vertically inte

the recent boom bust cycle the relative contribution of capital flows credit supply and asset bubbles abstract we use an estimated open economy dsge model with financial frictions for the us and the rest of the world to evaluate various competing explanations about the recent boom bust cycle we find that the savings glut hypothesis is insufficient for explaining all aspects of the boom in the us relatively strong tfp growth and expansionary monetary policy are also not able to explain fully the volatility of corporate and in particular residential investment we identify bubbles in the stock and housing market as crucial concerning the downturn in 2008 2009 the fall in house prices and residential investment only plays a minor role mortgage defaults have more explanatory power especially in a specification of the model with a segregated equity market finally the bursting of the stock market bubble was at least as important in this recession as in 2001 because of various negative shocks hitting the economy at the same time in 2008 2009 and continued positive technology growth not only the real interest rate declined but inflation fell rapidly and left insufficient room for monetary policy to play a similar stabilising role as in previous recessions

dynamic supplier contracts under asymmetric inventory information in this paper we examine a supply chain in which a single supplier sells to a downstream retailer we consider a multiperiod model with the following sequence of events in period t the supplier offers a contract to the retailer and the retailer makes her purchasing decision in anticipation of the random demand the demand then unravels and the retailer carries over any excess inventory to the next period unmet demand is lost in period t 1 the supplier designs a new contract based on his belief of the retailer s inventory and the game is played dynamically we assume that short term contracts are used i e the contracting is dynamically conducted at the beginning of each period we also assume that the retailer s inventory before ordering is not observed by the supplier this setting describes scenarios in which the downstream retailer does not share inventory sales information with the supplier for instance it captures the phenomenon of retailers distorting past sales information to secure better contracting terms from their suppliers we cast our problem as a dynamic adverse selection problem and show that given relatively high production and holding costs the optimal contract can take the form of a batch order contract which minimizes the retailer s information advantage we then analyze the performance of this type of contract with respect to some useful benchmarks and quantify the value of prudent contract design and the value of inventory information to the supply chain markovian adverse selection models in which the state and action in a period affect the state in the subsequent period are recognized as theoretically challenging and are relatively less understood we take a nontrivial step towards a better understanding of such models under short term contracting

interest rates and the market for new light vehicles we study the impact of interest rates changes on both the demand for and supply of new light vehicles in an environment where consumers and manufacturers face their own interest rates an increase in the consumers interest rate raises their cost of financing and thus lowers the demand for new vehicles an increase in the manufacturers interest rate raises their cost of holding inventories both channels have equilibrium effects that are amplified and propagated over time through inventories which serve as a way to both smooth production and facilitate greater sales at a given price through the estimation of a dynamic stochastic market equilibrium model we find evidence of both channels at work and of the important role played by inventories a temporary 100 basis point increase in both interest rates causes vehicle production to fall 12 percent and sales to fall 3 25 percent at an annual rate in the short run

taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies abstract this study demonstrates the relationship between exchange rate determination and an endogenous monetary policy represented by taylor rules we fill a gap in the literature by focusing on a group of fifteen emerging economies that adopted free floating exchange rates and inflation targeting beginning in the mid 1990s because of the limited span of the time series which is a common obstacle to studying emerging economies we employ panel data regressions to produce more efficient estimates following the recent literature we use a robust set of out of sample statistics incorporating bootstrapped and asymptotic distributions for the diebold mariano statistic the clark and west statistic and theil s u ratio by evaluating different specifications for the taylor rule exchange rate model based on their out of sample performances we find that a present value forward looking specification shows strong evidence of exchange rate predictability

two monetary models with alternating markets we examine two monetary models with periodic interactions in centralized and decentralized markets the cash in advance model and the model in lagos and wright 2005 given conformity of preferences technologies and shocks both models reduce to a single difference equation in stationary equilibrium such equations coincide when the price distortion present in one model due to nash bargaining is replicated in the other using a tax on cash revenues in that case the quantitative implications for the welfare cost of inflation in each model are also comparable differences in the model s performance reduce to differences in the pricing mechanism assumed to govern those transactions that must be settled with the exchange of cash

distribution channel strategies in a mixed market abstract this paper studies equilibrium channel strategies in a mixed market with a public firm and a private firm the public firm is concerned with social welfare while the private firm aims to maximize its own profit each firm decides whether to adopt an integrated or a decentralized channel we examine two standard market competition modes bertrand and cournot within each competition mode we consider two typical vertical contracts wholesale price and two part tariff contracts our results suggest that equilibrium channel structures depend on the market competition mode the vertical contract form and the level of product substitutability specifically the channel strategy of the private firm depends mainly on the vertical contract form under a two part tariff contract the private firm always chooses decentralization under a wholesale price contract the private firm chooses integration for most scenarios except for highly substitutable products under bertrand competition i e under very intense competition the channel strategy of the public firm depends mainly on the competition mode under bertrand competition the public firm always chooses decentralization under cournot competition the public firm always chooses the opposite of the private firm s strategy

disinflation shocks in the eurozone a dsge perspective we investigate the effects of disinflation policies on key macroeconomic variables using euro area data and structural vector autoregressions svars we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that drive nominal variables to a lower long run level we find that in the immediate aftermath of a disinflation shock the euro area enters in a persistent recession we use these dynamic responses to estimate a dsge model with imperfect information about the disinflation shock we find that both nominal and real frictions and monetary policy gradualism have played a prominent role in the recessionary effect of disinflation shocks conversely allowing for imperfect credibility does not yield a better fit except when we shut key model s frictions down

channel coordination and quantity discounts this paper presents a model for analyzing the impact of joint decision policies on channel coordination in a system consisting of a supplier and a group of homogeneous buyers the joint decision policy characterized by the unit selling price and the order quantity is coordinated through quantity discounts and franchise fees both the annual demand rate and the operating cost including the purchase ordering and inventory holding costs depend on the joint decision policy employed this paper contributes by integrating work addressing quantity discounts on inventory and ordering policies and work focusing on the control mechanism provided by quantity discounts in channel coordination it is shown that the optimal all unit quantity discount policy is equivalent to the optimal incremental quantity discount policy in achieving channel coordination furthermore it is shown that quantity discounts alone are not sufficient to guarantee joint profit maximization the analyses of the general models are illustrated by specific analytical results obtained for a given demand function

durable goods theory for real world markets the early 1970s witnessed three major advances in durable goods theory swan 1970 1971 and sieper and swan 1973 on optimal durability coase 1972 on time inconsistency and akerlof 1970 on adverse selection this paper surveys durable goods theory starting with these three contributions where much of the focus is on recent literature and on models that explain real world phenomena in addition to the ideas found in the contributions of swan coase and akerlof topics covered include why producers sometimes practice planned obsolescence the role of adverse selection in new car leasing and reasons for aftermarket monopolization

macroeconomics after the crisis time to deal with the pretense of knowledge syndrome the recent financial crisis has damaged the reputation of macroeconomics largely for its inability to predict the impending financial and economic crisis to be honest this inability to predict does not concern me much it is almost tautological that severe crises are essentially unpredictable for otherwise they would not cause such a high degree of distress what does concern me about my discipline is that its current core by which i mainly mean the so called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach has become so mesmerized with its own internal logic that it has begun to confuse the precision it has achieved about its own world with the precision that it has about the real one this is dangerous for both methodological and policy reasons to be fair to our field an enormous amount of work at the intersection of macroeconomics and corporate finance has been chasing many of the issues that played a central role during the current crisis including liquidity evaporation collateral shortages bubbles crises panics fire sales risk shifting contagion and the like however much of this literature belongs to the periphery of macroeconomics rather than to its core i will discuss the distinction between the core and the periphery of macroeconomics as well as the futile nature of the integrationist movement that is the process of gradually bringing the insights of the periphery into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium structure i argue that the complexity of macroeconomic interactions limits the knowledge we can ever attain and that we need to place this fact at the center of our analysis we should consider what this complexity does to the actions and reactions of the economic agent and seek analytical tools and macroeconomic policies that are robust to the enormous uncertainty to which we are confined

house price booms current account deficits and low interest rates one of the most striking features of the period before the great recession is the strong positive correlation between house price appreciation and current account defi cits not only in the united states but also in other countries that have subsequently experienced the highest degree of fi nancial turmoil a progressive relaxation of credit standards can rationalize this empirical observation lower collateral requirements facilitate access to external funding and drive up house prices the current account turns negative because households borrow from the rest of the world at the same time however the world real interest rate counterfactually increases the two key ingredients that reconcile a demand based explanation of house price booms and current account defi cits with the evidence on real interest rates are nominal interest rates lower than the predictions of a standard monetary policy rule in leveraged economies and foreign exchange rate pegs in saving countries

online content pricing purchase and rental markets digitization of content is changing how consumers and firms use purchase and rental markets low transaction costs make accessing content easier for consumers digital technology enables firms to create nondurable rental versions of their content and to restrict content to the purchasing consumer effectively shutting down resale markets to empirically analyze the interaction of purchase and rental markets i design a preference measurement tool to recover consumers intertemporal preferences through current period choices alone i then use these preferences to solve for a dynamic equilibrium between consumers and the firm in the context of the online home video market i find that when the firm is able to commit to holding prices fixed forever providing content through the purchase market alone is sufficient however when the firm is unable to commit it should serve both purchase and rental markets canonical theory models would predict exclusive rentals but the purchase option enables indirect price discrimination in practice i also find that when consumers place a premium on accessing new content they are less likely to intertemporally substitute thereby increasing the firm s pricing power consistent with theory commitment to future prices increases profits considerably this finding supports the rigid pricing structure of such retailers as apple despite studios push toward more pricing flexibility

competition in durable goods markets the strategic consequences of leasing and selling in marketing durable goods manufacturers use varying degrees of leasing and selling to consumers e g cars photo copiers personal computers airplanes etc the question that this raises is whether the distinction between leases and sales is simply one of price or whether the proportion of leases and sales effects a firm s ability to compete in the market in this paper we use two approaches to argue that leasing and selling create strategic consequences that extend beyond prices first we develop a stylized theoretical model that shows that the optimal proportion of leases and sales depends on the competitiveness of the market and on the inherent reliability of the firm s product and second we find support for the implications of our theoretical model with data from the automobile industry the u s automobile industry has seen a large increase in leasing over the last five years however the extent to which leasing has been embraced varies widely across manufacturers for example in 1993 the sport utility segment had the following lease percentages ford explorer 29 jeep grand cherokee 24 toyota 4 runner 11 and chevrolet blazer 9 in addition manufacturers often vary lease percentages across models for example in 1993 ford leased 22 of its crown victoria model 35 of its taurus model and 42 of its probe model a popular argument for why we see these differences is that higher priced cars are leased more often because leasing makes them more affordable however this rationale is not compelling in the face of our data for example the ford probe was priced significantly lower than the crown victoria and yet it was leased almost twice as often to develop a better understanding of why we observe differences in the proportion of leasing we develop a two period model of a duopoly in which each manufacturer chooses its optimal quantity and the fraction of units it wants to lease we find that in equilibrium neither firm leases all its units either they use a mix of leasing and selling or they use only selling our analysis suggests that the fraction of leased cars decreases as the manufacturers products become more similar and the competition between them increases the intuition for this result is that a higher fraction of leases puts the firm at a competitive disadvantage in the future this occurs because unlike firms that sell their product firms that lease are at a price disadvantage another important finding in this paper is that the extent of leasing chosen by a manufacturer depends on the reliability of its product in particular all else being equal the lower a product s reliability the lower its proportion of leases within the context of the automobile industry this suggests that more expensive cars may be leased more often because they are of higher quality and not necessarily because they are more expensive finally we test the implications of our theoretical model with data from the u s automobile market in particular for 1993 model year cars we develop a measure of reliability using data from consumer reports in addition we develop a measure of the extent of competition in each segment of the automobile market we support our hypotheses by finding that the extent to which a car model is leased depends strongly on its predicted reliability and on the competitive intensity within the segment

strategic information management under leakage in a supply chain the importance of material flow management for a profit maximizing firm has been well articulated in the supply chain literature we demonstrate in our analytical model that a firm must also actively manage information flows within the supply chain which translates to controlling what it knows as well as what its competitors and suppliers know in our model of horizontal competition between an informed and an uninformed firm with a common upstream supplier material and information flows intersect through leakage of demand order information to unintended recipients as a result the informed firm s drive to control information flows within the supply chain can trigger operational losses through material flow distortion these losses can be so severe that the firm may prefer not to acquire information even when it is costless to do so our results underscore the importance of strategic information management actively managing the supply chain s information flows and making trade offs with material flows where appropriate to maximize profits

computable markov perfect industry dynamics we provide a general model of dynamic competition in an oligopolistic industry with investment entry andexit toensurethatthereexistsacomputationallytractablemarkov perfectequilibrium we introduce firm heterogeneity in the form of randomly drawn privately known scrap values and setup costs into the model our game of incomplete information always has an equilibrium in cutoff entry exit strategies in contrast the existence of an equilibrium in the ericson and pakes model of industry dynamics requires admissibility of mixed entry exit strategies contrary to the assertion in their article that existing algorithms cannot cope with in addition we provide a condition on the model s primitives that ensures that the equilibrium is in pure investment strategies building on this basic existence result we first show that a symmetric equilibrium exists under appropriate assumptions on the model s primitives second we show that as the distribution of the random scrap values setup costs becomes degenerate equilibria in cutoff entry exit strategies converge to equilibria in mixed entry exit strategies of the game of complete information

r d appropriability opportunity and market structure new evidence on some schumpeterian hypotheses one of the largest bodies of literature in the field of industrial organization is devoted to the interpretation and testing of several hypotheses advanced by joseph schumpeter 1950 concerning innovation and industrial market structure one set of hypotheses focuses on the role of firm size as a determinant of r d spending and the rate of technological advance another set focuses on the effect of market concentration on r d and technological advance in this paper we reexamine the latter set of hypotheses at the industry level using new data on r d appropriability and technological opportunity collected by levin et al 1984 in a survey of r d executives in 130 industries

the cyclical behavior of strategic inventories this paper presents a model in which inventories are used by a duopoly to deter deviations from an implicitly collusive arrangement higher inventories allow firms to punish cheaters more strongly and can thus help to maintain collusion we show that when demand is high the incentive to deviate increases so that increases in inventories may be optimal for the duopoly this rationalizes the observed positive correlation between inventories and sales in our empirical section we show that as our model predicts this correlation is more important in concentrated industries we also provide several examples where inventories have been a factor in cartel behavior

optimal reputation building in the new keynesian model abstract we study the optimal committed monetary policy when the private sector has imperfect information and has to infer the central banker s ability to commit the optimal policy is designed to influence learning and improve the central banker s reputation of being committed the reputation building implies that when a committed central banker first takes office he should resist the temptation to stimulate output with initially high but declining inflation he should reverse a missed inflation target rather than accommodate it and he should adopt a less accommodative inflation response to a cost push shock than a full commitment solution suggests

the dynamics of bertrand price competition with cost reducing investments the authors would like to acknowledge the funding received from the danish council for independent research and innovation fund denmark fedor iskhakov gratefully acknowledges the support from the australian research council projects ce110001029 and fl110100247 as well as from frisch centre project 1307 financed by the ministry of labor norway

sourcing strategies and supplier incentives for short life cycle goods multiple sourcing with quick response has been recognized as a useful tool to manage demand risk for short life cycle goods however general wisdom has traditionally ignored the effect of these practices on supplier incentives in this paper we find that when suppliers make pricing decisions dual sourcing does not always lead to higher supply chain efficiency or buyer profits as compared to single sourcing this loss takes place when suppliers commit to prices up front before any possible forecast change but not when they delay the price quotes after demand forecasts have been updated specifically with up front price commitment dual sourcing leads to inflation of supplier prices because expensive suppliers will still receive part of the business if they are sufficiently quick thus when supplier prices are endogenous double marginalization may offset the additional buyer profit enabled by higher ordering flexibility in contrast with delayed price quotes a buyer will find dual sourcing benefic

real business cycle views of the great depression and recent events a review of timothy j kehoe and edward c prescott s great depressions of the twentieth century this book collects essays most of which were published earlier into an advertisement for real business cycle rbc analysis half of the essays discuss the great depression half discuss events of the 1980s and 1990s they all use the general equilibrium model of economic growth to analyze short run fluctuations in the rate of economic growth of various countries i find that the use of closed economy models without frictions is not useful for the analysis of short run variations in the rate of economic growth almost all of these essays end by claiming that variations in the rate of gdp growth were due to changes in the rate of total factor productivity tfp growth they do not provide any explanation for fluctuations in the rate of tfp growth leaving the reader no closer to understanding these periods of depression and slow growth i discuss in turn the essays on the great depression the essays on more recent fluctuations and the definition of great depressions used in this volume

schumpeter meeting keynes a policy friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles this paper studies an agent based model that bridges keynesian theories of demandgeneration and schumpeterian theories of technology fueled economic growth we employ the model to investigate the properties of macroeconomic dynamics and the impact of public polices on supply demand and the fundamentals of the economy we find profound complementarities between factors influencing aggregate demand and drivers of technological change that affect both short run fluctuations and longterm growth patterns from a normative point of view simulations show a corresponding complementarity between keynesian and schumpeterian policies in sustaining long run growth paths characterized by milder fluctuations and relatively lower unemployment levels the matching or mismatching between innovative exploration of new technologies and the conditions of demand generation appear to suggest the presence of two distinct regimes of growth or absence thereof characterized by different short run fluctuations and unemployment levels