pollution without subsidy what is the environmental performance index overlooking abstract agriculture is heavily subsidized in most organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries and environmental externalities can occur due to pollution caused by protectionist policies this study examines the structure of agricultural protection in oecd countries from a chronological and comparative perspective in addition the policy environment interaction is scrutinized to better explain the environmental implications of agricultural policies in the era of globalization this paper critically evaluates the environmental performance index and recommends that this index includes polluting inputs in future calculations

control of accumulating stock pollution by heterogeneous producers abstract this paper presents a framework to determine optimal resource allocation over time for the production of a good by heterogeneous producers who generate a stock externality we analyze the optimal intertemporal and quality specific combination of abatement strategies at the source source abatement given by a change in the intensity intensive margin of production and in the chosen technology extensive margin and or removal of existing pollution stock stock abatement the results show how the specifications of the production and the emission functions affect technology adoption and the design of the optimal intertemporal combination of source and stock abatement strategies moreover the paper shows that regulation at the intensive margin cannot be considered as a substitute for a regulation at the extensive margin the paper employs the so called two stage solution approach for solving the resulting quality distributed intertemporal optimal control problem

to float or to fix evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on growth we study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for a sample of 183 countries over the post bretton woods period using a new de facto classification of regimes based on the actual behavior of the relevant macroeconomic variables in contrast with previous studies we find that for developing countries less flexible exchange rate regimes are associated with slower growth as well as with greater output volatility for industrial countries regimes do not appear to have any significant impact on growth the results are robust to endogeneity corrections and a number of alternative specifications borrowed from the growth literature

detecting shift contagion in currency and bond markets abstract this paper investigates why financial market crises often increase the interdependence between assets associated with different countries two sources of increased co movement in asset returns are considered i larger common shocks operating through standard cross country linkages and ii changes in the structural transmission of shocks across countries referred to as shift contagion to examine this issue we develop a method for detecting shift contagion with three notable features first parameters corresponding to the structural transmission of shocks across countries are identified in the presence of changing volatility regimes for the shocks second the timing of changes in volatility is endogenously estimated instead of being exogenously assigned third the countries in which crises originate need not be known or even included in the analysis we apply the method to currency returns for developed countries and bond returns for emerging market countries

the effects of development constraints on forest management at the urban forest interface this article develops a model of a forest owner operating in a small open city environment where the rent for developed land is increasing concave in nearby preserved open space and is rising over time reflecting an upward trend in households income within this framework we examine how changes in nearby preserved open space and alternative development constraints affect an individual private landowner s decisions regarding both regeneration harvests and conversion dates we also examine how such policies affect development density once conversion from forestry to residential use occurs we show that when residential rents change over time the nature of the timber problem at the urban forest interface changes because it forces us to allow for the possibility of changes in land use from timber to residential use as a result the traditional faustmann setup is not suitable to study forest management decisions at this interface we also find that in the presence of rising income increases in permanently preserved open space hasten regeneration and conversion cuts of a neighboring parcel currently under forest use and leads to lower density development once conversion takes place compared to the case where income is constant we also find that both a binding development moratorium and a binding minimum lot size policy can postpone regeneration and conversion cut dates and thus help to protect open space even if only temporarily however the policies do not have the same effects on development density of converted forestland while the former leads to high density development the latter encourages low density development

unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion we propose an identified structural garch model to disentangle the dynamics of financial market crises we distinguish between the hypersensitivity of a domestic market in crisis to news from foreign non crisis markets and the contagion imported to a tranquil domestic market from foreign crises the model also enables us to connect unobserved structural shocks with their source markets using variance decompositions and to compare the size and dynamics of impulses during crises periods with tranquil period impulses to illustrate we apply the method to data from the 1997 1998 asian financial crisis which consists of a complicated set of interacting crises we find significant hypersensitivity and contagion between these markets but also show that links may strengthen or weaken impulse response functions for an equally weighted equity portfolio show the increasing dominance of korean and hong kong shocks during the crises and covariance responses demonstrate multiple layers of contagion effects

the impact of distressed economies on the eu sovereign market financially distressed economies inside the european union eu are being blamed for producing a general increase in borrowing costs this article analyzes the channels of default risk transmission within the eu countries using the information content in the sovereign credit default swap cds market we proceed in two directions first we test the existence of cross border volatility effects between the central and the peripheral eu countries second we explore the effect of distressed economies on the default and risk premium constituents of sovereign default swaps we show a significant volatility spillover from distressed to central european economic and monetary union emu economies this causality pattern leads to a significant impact on the default swap risk premia on average the risk premium accounts for approximately 42 of central emu spreads and 56 of the spreads for those countries outside of the emu the peripheral risk also affects the default component of central economies although its impact is lower

predatory versus productive government the case of u s agricultural policies this essay will argue that agricultural policy in the united states has led to both the enhancement of efficiency through productive policies and the transfer of wealth and income to special interests through redistributive or predatory policies these two activities can be labeled as pests and perts pest policies or political economic seeking transfers are meant to redistribute wealth from one social group to another and are not explicitly concerned with efficiency in contrast perts or political economic resource transactions are intended to correct market failures or to provide public goods these policies have neutral distributional effects at least in design a review of the history of public policy in agriculture reveals not only tension between the pert and pest roles of the public sector but also some coordination between these two types of activities as different interest groups pressure the political process the government trades off pests and perts in its attempts to acquire balance and secure political power at times this has led to combinations of programs that appear incoherent in such a world the challenge for economists is to design and advocate policies that are both economically productive and politically sustainable

sectoral implications of farm program modifications the overall and distributional effects of farm programs and selected revisions are examined using a mathematical programming sector model the model incorporates market distortions caused by price supports target prices program participation deficiency payments and marketing loans current farm programs are found to increase producer prices depress consumer prices and in turn result in excess production and higher consumption and exports domestic and foreign consumers as well as domestic producers are subsidized by farm programs social deadweight loss occurs as government payments exceed welfare benefits received by consumers and producers society as a whole benefits from reductions in program provisions

acreage decisions under risk the case of corn and soybeans an acreage supply response model is developed under expected utility maximization the resulting framework is used to specify and estimate a system of risk responsive acreage equations for corn and soybeans in the united states particular attention is given to the truncation effects of government price supports on the distribution of corn and soybean prices also a wealth variable is included in the acreage equations the empirical results indicate that risk and wealth variables play an important role in cornsoybean acreage decisions the analysis also shows that cross commodity risk reduction is important in acreage allocation decisions

land use change with spatially explicit data a dynamic approach most of the economic literature that uses spatially explicit data to estimate the determinants of land use change is limited to static models and cross sectional data sets recent attempts to move to a more dynamic analysis include using panel data sets and survival analysis in this study we use a discrete choice dynamic model of land use where the agent s choices are regarded as the solution to a dynamic optimization problem the irreversibility of some decisions expectations about future prices and forward looking behavior of the land operator can all be accounted for our results show that a model specification that incorporates some of the complexities of the decision process improves upon results found in the existing literature first prediction accuracy of land use change is superior to any of the existing models second we demonstrate that models that do not account for transactions costs tend to overestimate the effects of changes in transportation costs

an econometric study of the demand for first and second class inland letter services a dynamic quarterly model for both first and second class u k inland letter traffic is estimated over the period 1976 88 the demand for first class letters is strongly influenced by aggregate expenditure but for second class letters this linkage is much weaker both letter streams respond to changes in the price of first and second class letters the price of telephone services and other prices as measured by an aggregate price index copyright 1990 by mit press

land use dynamics and the environment we build a benchmark framework to study optimal land use encompassing land use activities and environmental degradation we focus on the spatial externalities of land use as drivers of spatial patterns even if land is immobile by nature location s actions affect the whole space through pollution which flows across locations resulting in both local and global damages in contrast to the previous literature on spatial dynamics we prove that the social optimum problem is well posed i e the solution exists and is unique taking advantage of this result we illustrate the richness of our model by means of a numerical analysis considering a global dynamic algorithm we find that our model reproduces a great variety of spatial patterns related to the interaction between land use activities and the environment in particular we identify the central role of abatement technology as pollution stabilizer allowing the economy to achieve stable steady states that are spatially heterogeneous

crisis transmission evidence from the debt tequila and asian flu crises the increasing globalization of the economy has put the issue of the international transmission of crises in the front line although the word contagion is a rather new concept in international finance it is the focus of a large number of policy oriented seminars and debates the clustering of crises by both region and time are at the heart of this discussion there are several important questions that need to be answered in this chapter we focus on a subset of them i what are the propagation channels of international crises across countries other than common shocks ii was the debt crisis contagious and iii are there useful policy instruments to shield countries from contagion in particular do capital controls exchange rate flexibility and the external debt maturity structure affect contagion we seek to answer these questions using evidence from three key events the 1982 debt crisis the 1994 mexican devaluation and the 1997 asian crisis

natural resource economics and conservation contributions of agricultural economics and agricultural economists research by agricultural economists on natural resources has been distinguished by an interdisciplinary emphasis and a dynamic perspective it has recognized technological and institutional constraints has been oriented toward solving concrete resource management and policy problems and has emphasized empirical and quantitative analysis agricultural economists have introduced methods for evaluating natural resource conservation efforts for predicting adoption of resource conservation technologies and for designing efficient and sustainable resource management policies they have identified ways of improving land management and preventing land degradation proposed reforms of institutions governing water allocation and water quality and introduced policies for balancing environmental and efficiency considerations in the management of pests biodiversity and livestock diseases their research has had substantial impacts on the formulation of resource conservation policies

the role of portfolio constraints in the international propagation of shocks we study the comovement among stock prices and exchange rates in a three good three country centre periphery dynamic equilibrium model in which the centre s agents face portfolio constraints we characterize equilibrium in closed form for a broad class of portfolio constraints solving for stock prices terms of trade and portfolio holdings we show that portfolio constraints generate wealth transfers between the periphery countries and the centre which increase the comovement of the stock prices across the periphery we associate this excess comovement caused by portfolio constraints with the phenomenon known as contagion the model generates predictions consistent with other important empirical results such as amplification and flight to quality effects copyright 2008 wiley blackwell

estimating the environmental impact of land and production decisions with multivariate selection rules and panel data we propose an estimation procedure dealing with multivariate selection and dynamics in land choice and unobserved heterogeneity in structural and crop selection equations the method is applied to a multi output profit function with multiple corner solutions and farm level panel data estimation results reveal that the single selection rule associated with the tobit procedure is rejected in favor of our multivariate selection treatment inconsistent estimates are expected with the tobit procedure or if farmer fixed effects are omitted which can have important consequences for policy recommendations as illustrated in an evaluation of nitrogen runoff elasticities with respect to economic variables copyright 2011 oxford university press

enduring impacts of land retirement policies evidence from the conservation reserve program we examine the persistence of cropland retirements induced by the conservation reserve program crp the largest u s conservation program we analyze micro data on observed land use choices following crp contract expiration over 1995 1997 and predict that 42 of crp acres would not have been returned to crops within a year if the program had expired in 1997 these results indicate that temporary cropland retirement payments under crp generate land use changes that often extend beyond contract periods the analysis suggests that targeted signing bonuses for first time enrollees would increase the longer term impacts of crp and perhaps other incentive based land use programs

have the gipsi settled down breaks and multivariate stochastic volatility models for and not against the european financial integration we investigate the integration of the european peripheral financial markets with germany france and the uk using a combination of tests for structural breaks and return correlations derived from several multivariate stochastic volatility models our findings suggest that financial integration intensified in anticipation of the euro further strengthened by the emu inception and amplified in response to the 2007 2008 financial crisis hence no evidence is found of decoupling of the equity markets in more troubled european countries from the core interestingly the uk despite staying outside the emu is not worse integrated with the gipsi than germany or france 2013 elsevier b v

modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes we propose a model to capture the dynamics of asset returns with periods of crises that are characterized by contagion in the model a jump in one region of the world increases the intensity of jumps both in the same region self excitation as well as in other regions cross excitation generating episodes of highly clustered jumps across world markets that mimic the observed features of the data we develop and implement moment based estimation and testing procedures for this model the estimates provide evidence of self excitation both in the us and the other world markets and of asymmetric cross excitation with the us market typically having more influence on the jump intensity of other markets than the reverse we propose filtered values of the jump intensities as a measure of market stress and examine their out of sample forecasting abilities

multicrop production models with multinomial logit acreage shares the main objective of this paper is to show that the multinomial logit mnl framework can be used for deriving simple acreage share models more specifically we show that mnl acreage choice models can be defined as parts of consistent multicrop models when coupled with suitably designed crop production models e g a specific parameterization of the standard quadratic yield function the parameters of these multicrop models are easily interpreted and estimated although mnl acreage choice models are usually derived by aggregating crop choices defined at the plot level we show that these models can also be derived by considering a profit maximisation problem at the farm level this provides a simple theoretical background for the standard mnl acreage share model as well as for simple extensions of these models the nested mnl acreage share models an empirical application on french farm level data over the period 1996 2007 investigates the empirical performances of the multicrop econometric models based on the proposed mnl framework for modelling acreage choices

transmission of government default risk in the eurozone abstract this paper analyzes the reasons behind the rising ten year government bond spreads in the eurozone during the recent euro debt crisis we develop a structural vector autoregressive model that allows us to test whether the upsurges in the spreads reflect breaks in the instantaneous shock propagation mechanisms between the spreads contagion changing dynamical effects or changing country specific risk factors especially a new approach to test the stability of the instantaneous shock propagation mechanisms is introduced our results show that although contagion appears as the single most important reason for the increasing spreads there are notable differences between the countries for example and ireland spain and italy see statistically significant increases in their country specific risk factors

options uncertainty and sunk costs an empirical analysis of land use change abstract in a real option model of land conversion incorporating return uncertainty and sunk costs optimal conversion thresholds are significantly higher than those from expected net present value models not accounting for these factors empirical tests of conversion from agriculture to forest suggest that landowners value the option to convert when making conversion decisions higher uncertainty in returns to all potential uses and lower correlation between shocks to agricultural and forest returns decreases the likelihood of conversion estimates indicate a significant impact on conversion decisions with approximations of option values ranging from 7 to 81 of the expected value of the land asset

on the measurement of the international propagation of shocks is the transmission stable abstract the empirical literature on contagion focuses mainly on two questions 1 what are the channels through which shocks are transmitted across countries trade macro similarities financial weaknesses or investor behavior 2 is there a shift in the transmission of shocks during crises are crises spread with higher intensity if so why this paper concentrates on the econometric problems that arise in dealing with the second question the data where most of these issues are raised are plagued with problems of simultaneous equations omitted variables and heteroskedasticity the standard methodologies used in the literature are inappropriate if all three are present this paper applies a new procedure that allows one to test for parameter stability taking into account all three predicaments the paper tests for the stability of the transmission mechanisms among 36 stock markets during the last three major international financial crises mexico 1994 asia 1997 and russia 1998

the effect of agricultural policies on land use and environmental quality in this paper i consider the environmental quality gains that may be achieved by reducing agricultural income supports a new methodology is developed to estimate land use shares in an application to wisconsin milk price support reductions result in shifts of marginal agricultural land to forest reducing soil erosion and providing off site water quality improvements the environmental benefits are estimated to be at least as large as the decreased welfare burden on consumers and taxpayers indicating a central role for environmental quality considerations in motivating policy reforms and a more efficient means of achieving the environmental quality goals of land retirement programs

terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries abstract since friedman essays in positive economics university of chicago press chicago 1953 157 203 an advantage often attributed to flexible exchange rate regimes over fixed regimes is their ability to insulate more effectively the economy against real shocks i use a post bretton woods sample 1973 96 of 75 developing countries to assess whether the responses of real gdp real exchange rates and prices to terms of trade shocks differ systematically across exchange rate regimes i find that responses are significantly different across regimes in a way that supports friedman s hypothesis the paper also examines the importance of terms of trade shocks in explaining the overall variance of output and prices in developing countries

econometric estimation of producers risk attitudes general methods are proposed for the identification and econometric estimation of the parameters of the distribution of risk attitudes in a producer population the proposed methods also provide the basis for the development of statistical tests of model specification and of behavioral hypotheses econometric risk attitude estimation is shown to be possible under less restrictive conditions than previously believed a moment based version of the general model is applied to indian data and the econometrically estimated risk attitudes are presented and compared to experimental results for a similar group of producers

systemic risk and international portfolio choice returns on international equities are characterized by jumps moreover these jumps tend to occur at the same time across countries leading to systemic risk we capture these stylized facts using a multivariate system ofjump diffusion processes where the arrival of jumps is simultaneous across assets we then determine an investor s optimal portfolio for this model of returns systemic risk has two effects one it reduces the gains from diversification and two it penalizes investors for holding levered positions we find that the loss resulting from diminished diversification is small while that from holding very highly levered positions is large returns on international equities are characterized by jumps 1 moreover these jumps tend to occur at the same time across countries implying that conditional correlations between international equity returns tend to be higher in periods of high market volatility or following large downside moves 2 our objective in

does the exchange rate regime matter for real shocks evidence from windstorms and earthquakes abstract does the choice of exchange rate regime affect an economy s adjustment to real shocks exploiting the unpredictability and economic exogeniety of windstorms hurricanes and typhoons and earthquakes this paper assesses the often contrasting answers found in the theoretical literature there is robust evidence that exchange rate flexibility helps an economy better adjust to real shocks and consistent with the channels emphasized in the classic literature on exchange rates and shocks differences in the behavior of the export sector help explain the different reactions between the two regimes

public open access and private timber harvests theory and application to the effects of trade liberalization in mexico a common popular assertion is that trade liberalization encourages deforestation but whether this is true depends on how trade policies affect the allocation of land among competing uses and how they influence illegal cutting of public forests a model is presented that allows for forests to be either public or private and public forests are divided into protected or managed and threatened categories effects of price changes are shown on each part of the forest an empirical version of the model is applied to the case of mexico with nafta most scenarios considered show that nafta will have positive long run effects on forest cover in mexico but that this is net of losses on private lands

demand models for direct mail and periodicals delivery services results for a transition economy this article examines the demand for services of the slovenian national postal operator for the direct mail and periodicals market and separately for the direct mail market the main factors of the demand are found to be various price indicators with respect to individual market two income series and the variable of economic environment the results of our empirical analysis suggest that the price elasticity of demand on both markets is below zero the autonomy in price increases is limited due to positive cross price elasticity of demand for direct mail with regard to price fluctuations for tv commercials substitution effects on the direct mail market are even more evident with regard to price fluctuations for advertisements in magazines and daily papers an additional finding is that the demand on both markets varies seasonally in all models estimated by us finally coefficients of income elasticity of demand for direct mail services show that the total number of mail deliveries on the direct mail ma

understanding farmland price changes this paper develops a structural model of land prices which includes the multidimensional effects of inflation on capital erosion savings return erosion and real debt reduction as well as the effect of changes in the opportunity cost of capital the results show that inflation and changes in the real returns on capital are major explanatory factors in farmland price swings in addition to returns to farming additionally the effects of credit market constraints and expectations schemes are considered explicitly in the analytical model

stock market cycles financial liberalization and volatility in this paper we analyze the cycles of the stock markets in four latin american and two asian countries and we compare their characteristics we divide our sample in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the financial liberalization processes of the early 1990s we find that cycles in emerging countries tend to have shorter duration and larger amplitude and volatility than in developed countries however after financial liberalization latin american stock markets have behaved more similarly to stock markets in developed countries whereas asian countries have become more dissimilar concordance of cycles across markets has increased significantly over time especially for latin american countries after liberalization

some observations on the efficiency of british postal pricing unlike in the more competitive areas such as parcels and international mail the inland letters segment of the british post office s business is marked by an inefficient pricing structure where own price elasticities and cost differences between urban and rural and first and second class letters are not reflected in prices compared with a ramsey pricing structure the existing prices cause a significant welfare cost of about 20m p a 1985 86 pounds which does not appear to be outweighed by the additional administrative costs of a four tier pricing structure the proposal to introduce ramsey prices appears worthy of further investigation by those with access to the necessary data

a robust methodology for ramsey pricing with an application to uk postal services the policy relevance of ramsey pricing calculations naturally turns on their robustness this paper sets out a methodology for a minimal information approach in examining the sensitivity of ramsey prices to changes in demand and cost parameters the minimal information required for the approach to be operational is 1 a set of estimated demand functions for the products involved and 2 some idea of the ball park for marginal costs for these products a case study of the u k letters business is used to illustrate the approach copyright 1996 by blackwell publishing ltd

evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of asia and latin america considering the macroeconomic fundamentals this article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994 to 2003 the econometrics methodology used is that of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch family volatility models particularly the dynamic conditional correlation dcc models in the form proposed by engle and sheppard 2001 the returns were duly corrected for a series of country specific fundamentals the relevance of this procedure is highlighted in the literature by the work of pesaran and pick 2003 the results obtained in this article provide evidence favourable for the hypothesis of regional contagion in both latin america and asia as a rule contagion spread from the asian crisis to latin america but not in the opposite direction

assessing usa postal ratemaking an application of ramsey prices in early rate cases the inverse elasticity rule was used explicitly in setting postal rates but more recently the usa postal service has eschewed its use since cross elasticities between mail classes are not all zero general ramsey prices would be more appropriate than the simple inverse elasticity rule using usps estimates of revenues costs and elasticities postal rates are simulated under several different conditions the simulated prices are then compared to the rates suggested in the 1980 rate case to determine whether the principles being followed by the usps lead to ramsey prices

does poverty constrain deforestation econometric evidence from peru this paper examines the relationship between income and land clearing for households living in tropical forest regions a simple model of the agricultural household that clears land for agriculture is developed to investigate the relationship between lagged income and cleared land holdings analysis of panel data from peru suggests that lagged income is positively correlated with clearing though at a decreasing rate and because of labor market constraints clearing is positively correlated with household labor availability this work suggests that small increases in the incomes of the poorest are unlikely to reduce deforestation in this context

contagion and trade why are currency crises regional abstract currency crises tend to be regional they affect countries in geographic proximity this suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena we provide empirical support for this hypothesis using data for five different currency crises in 1971 1973 1992 1994 and 1997 we show that currency crises affect clusters of countries tied together by international trade by way of contrast macroeconomic and financial influences are not closely associated with the cross country incidence of speculative attacks

responsiveness of rural and urban land uses to land rent determinants in the u s south ricardian and von thunen land rent models are combined into a single land use share model including farm forest and urban land uses the land share model is applied to the southern united states and elasticities are extracted that measure land share response to changes in population income land values prices and costs in counties with different degrees of urbanizationt he study explores the effect of treating either rural or urban land as a residual use while this practice is common in existing land use studies it is found to significantly affect parameter estimates in this county level analysis

rational and self fulfilling balance of payments crises speculative attacks on a pegged exchange rate must sometimes occur ifasset price paths are to be free of abnormal profit opportunities suchattacks are fully rational as they reflect the market s response to aregime breakdown that is inevitable the authors shows that under someexpectations about policy balance of payments crises can also be purely self fulfilling events in such cases even a permanently viableregime may collapse and the economy will possess multiple equilibriacorresponding to different subjective assessments of the probability ofa crisis the behavior of the domestic interest rate will naturally reflect the possibility of a speculative attack copyright 1986 by american economic association

argentina s currency board collapse weak policy or bad luck two basic views can be discerned in post mortems of argentina s currency board 1 that weak fiscal policy was fundamentally to blame and 2 that the peso had become too severely overvalued for the peg to survive this paper evaluates the evidence for these rival interpretations the real effective exchange rate index did not indicate massive overvaluation but this index does not capture the effects on the equilibrium rate of the sudden stop in capital flows to emerging markets after 1998 it also understates the amount of adjustment required for argentina to reach the equilibrium rate because neighbour countries dollar exchange rates were held up by argentina s overvaluation as is indicated by their depreciation in 2002 argentina was particularly vulnerable to the sudden stop because of the extreme volatility of its portfolio inflows fiscal policy simulations suggest that even with a substantially improved primary balance from 1994 onwards loss of investor confidence would still have triggered unsustainable debt dynamics once the recession began to bite after 1998 the stagnation of output and prices in argentina created a yawning gap between the interest rate on debt and the rate of growth of nominal gdp had the currency been floated in say 1995 the real devaluation of the peso would still have pushed up the debt gdp ratio but higher output would have left greater scope for addressing this by running a sizeable primary surplus moreover the more gradual depreciation under floating might have allowed the economy to adjust to higher debt service payments without resort to default the imf has criticised itself for not pressing for tighter fiscal policy in the 1990s a more fundamental criticism would be that it was seduced by the bipolar model into complacency about adjustment to real shocks and forgetting the teachings of optimum currency area theory

financial contagion on the international trade network we combine data on international trade linkages with a network approach to map the global trading system as an interdependent complex network this enables us to obtain indicators of how well connected a country is into the global trading system we use these network based measures of connectedness to explain stock market returns during recent episodes of financial crisis we find that a crisis is amplified if the epicenter country is better integrated into the trade network however target countries affected by such a shock are in turn better able to dissipate the impact if they are well integrated into the network a network approach can help explain why the mexican asian and russian financial crises were highly contagious while the crises that originated in venezuela and argentina did not have such a virulent effect we suggest that a network approach incorporating the cascading and diffusion of interdependent ripples when a shock hits a specific part of the global trade network provides us with an improved explanation of financial contagion jel f10 f36 f40 g15

explaining co movements between stock markets the case of us and germany abstract we explain co movements between stock markets by explicitly considering the distinction between interdependence and contagion we propose and implement a full information approach on data for us and germany to provide answers to the following questions i is there long term interdependence between us and german stock markets ii is there short term interdependence and contagion between us and german stock markets i e do short term fluctuations of the us share prices spill over to german share prices and is such co movement unstable over high volatility episodes our answers are respectively no to the first question and yes to the second one

the mirage of exchange rate regimes for emerging market countries this paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat it begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes and then explores the weaknesses in this theory especially when it is applied to emerging market economies it then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits the conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the development of good fiscal financial and monetary institutions in producing macroeconomic success in emerging market countries this suggests that less attention should be focused on the general question whether a floating or a fixed exchange rate is preferable and more on these deeper institutional arrangements a focus on institutional reforms rather than on the exchange rate regime may encourage emerging market countries to be healthier and less prone to the crises that we have seen in recent years

coping with terms of trade shocks pegs versus floats the choice of the exchange rate regime has always been an area of great controversy and debate the discussion has once again taken center stage in the developing world the sequence of currency crises in the 1990 s the success of cultency board arrangements the dollarization plan of ecuador and the apparent swing toward flexible regimes of many emerging economies has revived interest in this debate milton friedman 1953 argued that one of the most important advantages of flexible regimes over fixed regimes is that they can smooth adjustment to real shocks even in the presence of nominal rigidities ever since this has been one of the least disputed benefits attributed to fully flexible exchange rate regimes subsequent to friedman many theories of the international transmission of real shocks have confirmed the original intuition that the shortrun responses to terms of trade shocks should be different across exchange rate regimes here i look at a post bretton woods sample of 74 developing countries to test whether flexible regimes can buffer terms of trade shocks better than fixed regimes

unintended impacts of public investments on private decisions the depletion of forested wetlands by affecting relative economic returns infrastructure investments can induce major changes in private land use the authors find that 30 percent of forested wetland depletion in the mississippi valley has resulted from private decisions induced by federal flood control projects despite explicit federal policy to preserve wetlands the model aggregates individual land use decisions using a parametric distribution of unobserved land quality dynamic simulations are used to quantify the impacts on wetlands of federal projects and other factors copyright 1990 by american economic association