volatility in the small and in the large the lack of diversification in international trade abstract how does international trade affect the risk exposure of firms and countries trade induces specialization thus increasing economies exposure to idiosyncratic supply shocks but greater geographic diversification in trade destinations offers natural hedging properties against demand shocks in this paper we offer an integrated economic and econometric view of the impact of trade on firms and countries volatility exporters volatility is shown to directly depend on the lack of diversification in their portfolio of clients indeed most exporters including the largest have one or two main clients that dwarf the others this structure of trade networks implies that individual exporters are strongly exposed to microeconomic demand shocks the concentration of trade flows further implies that such risk does not wash out across firms thus contributing to aggregate fluctuations

interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels most advanced economies have experienced a striking decline in the volatility of aggregate economic activity since the early 1980s volatility reductions are evident for output and employment at the aggregate level and across most industrial sectors and expenditure categories inflation and inflation volatility have also declined dramatically previous studies offer several potential explanations for this great moderation we review evidence on the great moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level we combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline and its consequences the key ingredients are declines in firm level volatility and aggregate volatility most dramatically in the durable goods sector surprisingly this has occurred without a decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply chain management particularly in the durable goods sector and less important a shift in production and employment from goods to services we provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm level and aggregate volatility consistent with this view if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s much of the moderation reflects a decline in high frequency short term fluctuations while these developments represent efficiency gains they do not imply nor is there evidence for a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households

exact and heuristic solutions of the global supply chain problem with transfer pricing we examine the example of a multinational corporation that attempts to maximize its global after tax profits by determining the flow of goods the transfer prices and the transportation cost allocation between each of its subsidiaries vidal and goetschalckx vidal c j goetschalckx m 2001 a global supply chain model with transfer pricing and transportation cost allocation european journal of operational research 129 1 134 158 proposed a bilinear model of this problem and solved it by an alternate heuristic we propose a reformulation of this model reducing the number of bilinear terms and accelerating considerably the exact solution we also present three other solution methods an implementation of variable neighborhood search vns designed for any bilinear model an implementation of vns specifically designed for the problem considered here and an exact method based on a branch and cut algorithm the solution methods are tested on artificial instances these results show that our implementation of vns outperforms the two other heuristics the exact method found the optimal solution of all small instances and of 26 of medium instances

technological innovation and the distribution of employment growth a firm level analysis this work studies the firm level relationship between different types of innovative activities and employment growth rates improving on previous investigations on the topic it combines a detailed analysis of the effects of product and process innovation on average employment growth with a broader outlook on the whole conditional employment growth distribution results show that product innovation especially in terms of good new to the entire market has a positive effect on employment growth this role is likely to be particularly relevant for both fast growing and shrinking firms process innovation appears instead to have less clear cut dynamics consistently with existing evidence among different types of process innovation the introduction of novel auxiliary processes appears to be more positively linked with employment growth

understanding corporate coherence theory and evidence abstract multiproduct firms are perceived to be coherent in their scope yet there is no strong theoretical foundations to explain coherence in modern industrial organization theory this paper shows that as u s manufacturing firms grow more diverse they maintain a constant level of coherence between neighboring activities this finding runs counter to the idea that firms with many activities are generally more incoherent a framework is then presented which appeals to the nature of enterprise learning path dependencies and the nature of the selection environment to explain the ubiquity of coherent diversifiers

persistence survival and growth a closer look at 20 years of fast growing firms in austria for survival persistence and growth hifs show a much higher persistence than hgfs the average growth rate after the high growth episode is quite modest for both hifs and hgfs policy implications of the ndings are discussed

a statistical equilibrium model of competitive firms abstract we find that the empirical density of firm profit rates measured as returns on assets is markedly non gaussian and reasonably well described by an exponential power or subbotin distribution we start from a statistical equilibrium model that leads to a stationary subbotin density in the presence of complex interactions among competitive heterogeneous firms to investigate the dynamics of firm profitability we construct a diffusion process that has the subbotin distribution as its stationary probability density this leads to a phenomenologically inspired interpretation of variations in the shape parameter of the subbotin distribution which essentially measures the competitive pressure in and across industries our findings have profound implications both for the previous literature on the persistence of profits as well as for understanding competition as a dynamic process our main formal finding is that firms idiosyncratic efforts and the tendency for competition to equalize profit rates are two sides of the same coin and that a ratio of these two effects ultimately determines the dispersion of the equilibrium distribution

creative destruction and firm specific performance heterogeneity traditional u s industries with higher firm specific stock return and fundamentals performance heterogeneity use information technology it more intensively and post faster productivity growth in the late 20 th century we argue that this mechanically reflects a wave of schumpeter s 1912 creative destruction disrupting a wide swath of industries with successful it adopters unpredictably undermining established firms this validates endogenous growth theory models of creative destruction e g aghion and howitt 1992 and suggests intensified creative destruction as explaining findings associating greater firm specific performance variation with higher per capita gdps economy growth rates accounting standards financial system development and property right protection

vertical organization of production and firm growth this paper empirically explores if different vertical organizational forms i e vertical integration versus dis integration give rise to unlike growth behaviors within the same industry an econometric analysis is conducted in a sample of around 500 italian machine tool mt builders for the period 1998 2007 implementing instrumental variables to control for the endogeneity of the organizational form in the relation ceteris paribus vertically integrated firms result to be characterized by a less dispersed distribution of growth rates than their dis integrated counterparts several concurring factors such as adjustment costs organizational slacks and a better management of fluctuations in the markets of intermediate and final products may explain the more a stablea growth profile of vertically integrated firms by means of analyzing how different organizational forms map into the distribution of output growth rates this work provides insight into the firm dynamics in a mature industry in which both vertically integrated and dis integrated firms coexist

diversification patterns and survival as firms mature we focus on the relationship between age and diversification patterns of german machine tool manufacturers in the post war era we distinguish between minor diversification adding a new product variation within a familiar submarket and major diversification expanding the product portfolio into new submarkets our analysis reveals four main insights first we observe that firms have lower diversification rates as they grow older and that eventually diversification rates even turn negative for old firms on average where negative diversification corresponds to exit from certain product lines second we find that product portfolios of larger firms tend to be more diversified third with respect to consecutive diversification activities quantile autoregression plots show that firms experiencing diversification in one period are unlikely to repeat this behavior in the following year fourth survival estimations reveal that diversification activities reduce the risk of exit in general and to a varying degree at different ages these results are interpreted using penrosean growth theory

volatility of short term capital flows and private investment in emerging markets abstract using micro level panel data the paper analyses the impacts of short term capital flow volatility on new fixed investment spending of publicly traded real sector firms in three major emerging markets argentina mexico and turkey the empirical results including sensitivity tests suggest that increasing volatility of capital inflows has an economically and statistically significant negative effect on new investment spending of private firms accordingly a 10 per cent increase in capital flow volatility reduces fixed investment spending in the range of 1 1 7 2 3 15 and 1 per cent in argentina mexico and turkey respectively

on the relationship between firm size and export intensity export marketing literature supports the view that firm size is positively related to export intensity although the empirical findings have been mixed a number of theoretical arguments are used to support this proposition i e international marketing economies of scale limited managerial and financial resources of small firms decisionmaker s risk perception based on a large survey of the italian manufacturing industry the article falsifies the proposition and challenges some widely held assumptions in export marketing literature

information rigidity and the expectations formation process a simple framework and new facts we propose a new approach to test the full information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from irrationality or limited information this approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null by quantifying the underlying degree of information rigidity applying this approach to u s and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with models of imperfect information furthermore the proposed approach sheds new light on policies such as inflation targeting and those leading to the great moderation affecting expectations finally we document evidence of state dependence in the expectations formation process

corporate growth and industrial structures some evidence from the italian manufacturing industry this work analyses the properties of corporate growth in a large longitudinal sample of italian manufacturing firms in particular it focuses on the statistical properties of growth rates and on the influence of proxies for relative efficiency upon relative growth in line with previous work the emergence of fat tails in growth rate distributions and the idiosyncratic nature of autocorrelation coefficients confirm the existence of a structure in the growth process richer than the one normally assumed by the gibrat law hypothesis and suggest the presence of firm specific drivers of growth at the same time there is a remarkable puzzle concerning the absence of any negative relationship between size and growth variance and only weak influences of relative efficiencies upon growth dynamics

redesign of global supply chains with integration of transfer pricing mathematical modeling and managerial insights abstract unlike the supply chain sc design problem which deals with the configuration of a new sc the redesign problem assumes that a sc already exists and focuses on its reconfiguration in order to take profit of the changing logistics financial and fiscal advantages offered by each country first this requires considering specific decisions and cost factors such as those associated with facility closing and capacity relocation these aspects are often ignored by sc design models second to better capitalize on the tax advantages in each country the redesign of sc requires the consideration of taxation rates and mainly transfer pricing indeed companies can use transfer pricing to shift profits to lower tax countries which may impact on the sc redesign decisions e g on the relocation of operations and manufacturing facilities this paper contributes to the literature by 1 developing a large scale optimization model that is specific to the problem of sc redesign while addressing decisions costs and complexity factors that are often ignored by the model based sc design literature 2 integrating transfer pricing in the model by using two methods one of them is the profit split method that is dictated by the oecd transfer pricing guidelines 1995 2010 which could be considered as a novelty in large scale sc optimization models and 3 using the model to derive a series of insights that may be helpful for companies and governments most of these insights are difficult to obtain without the support of models like the one developed here

a theory of growth and volatility at the aggregate and firm level abstract we present an endogenous growth model that explains the evolution of the first and second moments of productivity growth at the aggregate and firm level during the post war period growth is driven by the development of both i idiosyncratic r d innovations and ii general innovations that can be freely adopted by many firms firm level volatility is affected primarily by the schumpeterian dynamics associated with the development of r d innovations the variance of aggregate productivity growth is driven by the arrival rate of general innovations ceteris paribus the share of resources spent on development of general innovations increases with the stability of the market share of the industry leader as market shares become less persistent the model predicts an endogenous shift in the allocation of resources from the development of general innovations to the development of r d innovations this results in an increase in r d an increase in firm level volatility and a decline in aggregate volatility the effect on productivity growth is ambiguous on the empirical side this paper presents new cross country evidence that r d subsidies are not significantly associated with higher growth but are associated with lower aggregate volatility it also documents an upward trend in the instability of market shares a positive association between firm volatility and r d spending and a negative association across sectors between r d and how correlated the sector is with the rest of the economy

the relationship between firm growth size and age estimates for 100 manufacturing industries this study uses a sample of all firms operating in 100 manufacturing industries to examine some aspects of firm dynamics it finds that firm growth the variability of firm growth and the probability that a firm will fail decrease with firm age it also finds that firm growth decreases at a diminishing rate with firm size even after controlling for the exit of slow growing firms from the sample gibrat s law therefore fails although the severity of the failure decreases with firm size copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

age size growth and survival uk companies in the 1980s this paper examines growth and survival amongst quoted and unquoted u k companies in the period 1975 85 and compares the results with earlier u k and u s studies an examination of death rates shows that smaller companies had higher death rates but the largest and smallest companies were least vulnerable to takeover careful attention is therefore paid to problems of sample selection bias it is shown that smaller companies grew faster than larger companies that gibrat s law does not hold amongst smaller firms that age is negatively related to growth and that these results are not an artifact of sample selection bias copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

sectoral patterns of technical change towards a taxonomy and a theory abstract the purpose of the paper is to describe and explain sectoral patterns of technical change as revealed by data on about 2000 significant innovations in britain since 1945 most technological knowledge turns out not to be information that is generally applicable and easily reproducible but specific to firms and applications cumulative in development and varied amongst sectors in source and direction innovating firms principally in electronics and chemicals are relatively big and they develop innovations over a wide range of specific product groups within their principal sector but relatively few outside firms principally in mechanical and instrument engineering are relatively small and specialised and they exist in symbiosis with large firms in scale intensive sectors like metal manufacture and vehicles who make a significant contribution to their own process technology in textile firms on the other hand most process innovations come from suppliers these characteristics and variations can be classified in a three part taxonomy based on firms 1 supplier dominated 2 production intensive 3 science based they can be explained by sources of technology requirements of users and possibilities for appropriation this explanation has implications for our understanding of the sources and directions of technical change firms diversification behaviour the dynamic relationship between technology and industrial structure and the formation of technological skills and advantages at the level of the firm the region and the country

corporate growth and industrial dynamics evidence from french manufacturing this work explores basic properties of the size and growth rates distributions of firms at the aggregate and disaggregate levels using an extensive dataset on french manufacturing firms we investigate which properties of firm size distributions and growth dynamics characterize the aggregate dynamics and are at the same time robust under disaggregation our analysis is based on non linear robust regression methods which have never been applied before to this kind of data the growth rates distributions we observe are well described by a subbotin distribution with a shape parameter significantly lower than 1 suggesting a noticeable departure from the laplace behavior reported in previous works on italian and us data at the same time the variance of growth rates depends negatively on size and the relationship does not seem to be linear with larger firms possibly displaying lower variability in their growth dynamics at the disaggregate level we observe significant heterogeneity in the firm size distributions across sectors while the shape of the sectoral growth rates density displays a surprising degree of homogeneity

evidence that the zero earnings discontinuity has disappeared abstract discontinuities in earnings distributions at zero have been widely cited as evidence of earnings management but not without controversy recent research suggests discontinuities may be mere artifacts of certain research design choices we find that the well known zero earnings discontinuity disappears soon after passage of the sarbanes oxley act sox and has not returned we also find that neither the discontinuity nor its disappearance require the effects of widely cited alternative non earnings management explanations for the zero earnings discontinuity

financial liberalization private investment and portfolio choice financialization of real sectors in emerging markets abstract using firm level panel data we analyze the impacts of rates of return gap between financial and fixed investments under uncertainty on real investment performance in three emerging markets argentina mexico and turkey employing a portfolio choice model to explain the low fixed investment rates in developing countries during the 1990s we suggest that rather than investing in irreversible long term fixed investments firms may choose to invest in reversible short term financial investments depending on respective rates of returns and the overall uncertainty in the economy the empirical results show that increasing rates of return gap and uncertainty have an economically and statistically significant fixed investment reducing effect while the opposite is true with respect to financial investments

gibrat s law and diversification this article presents an analysis of the growth patterns of the worldwide top 200 firms in the pharmaceutical industry a test of the gibrat s law of proportionate effect is performed and we find in line with previous literature a violation concerning the variance of growth using disaggregated data on sub markets we are however able to show that this violation can be completely accounted for by a diversification effect namely a scale relation between the number of sub markets in which a firm is active and its size to interpret these findings we propose a stochastic branching model of firm diversification consistent with a notion of cumulative corporate competences

what do firms know what do they produce a new look at the relationship between patenting profiles and patterns of product diversification in this work we analyze the relationship between the patterns of firm diversification if any across product lines and across bodies of innovative knowledge proxied by the patent classes where the firm is present putting it more emphatically we investigate the relationship between what a firm does and what a firm knows using a newly developed dataset matching information on patents and products at the firm level we provide evidence concerning firms technological and product scope their relationships the size scaling and coherence properties of diversification itself our analysis shows that typically firms are much more diversified in terms of products than in terms of technologies with their main products more related to the exploitation of their innovative knowledge the scaling properties show that the number of products and technologies increases log linearly with firm size and the directions of diversification themselves display coherence between neighboring activities also at relatively high degrees of diversification these findings are well in tune with a capability based theory of the firm

a global supply chain model with transfer pricing and transportation cost allocation abstract we present a model for the optimization of a global supply that maximizes the after tax profits of a multinational corporation and that includes transfer prices and the allocation of transportation costs as explicit decision variables the resulting mathematical formulation is a non convex optimization problem with a linear objective function a set of linear constraints and a set of bilinear constraints we develop a heuristic solution algorithm that applies successive linear programming based on the reformulation and the relaxation of the original problem our computational experiments investigate the impact of using different starting points the algorithm produces feasible solutions with very small gaps between the solutions and their upper bound ub

formation of a strategic manufacturing and distribution network with transfer prices abstract we propose a profit maximization model for the decision support system of a firm that wishes to establish or rationalize a multinational manufacturing and distribution network to produce and deliver finished goods from sources to consumers the model simultaneously evaluates all traditional location factors in a manufacturing and distribution network design problem and sets intra firm transfer prices that take account of tax and exchange rate differentials between countries utilizing the generalized benders decomposition approach we exploit the partition between the product flow and the cash allocation i e the pricing and revenue assignment decisions in the supply chain to find near optimal model solutions our proposed profit maximizing strategic planning model produces intuitive results we offer computational experiments to illustrate the potential valuable guidance the model can provide to a firm s supply chain design strategic planning process

evolution of erois of electricity until 2050 estimation and implications on prices abstract the eroi for energy returned on invested of an energy technology measures its ability to provide energy efficiently previous studies draw a link between the affluence of a society and the eroi of its energy system and show that erois of renewables are lower than those of fossil fuels logically concerns have been expressed that system wide eroi may decrease during a renewable energy transition first i explain theoretically that the erois of renewables themselves could then decrease as energy efficient fossil fuels would be replaced by less energy efficient renewables in the supply chain then using the multi regional input output model themis i estimate the evolution of erois and prices of electric technologies from 2010 to 2050 for different scenarios global eroi of electricity is predicted to go from 12 in 2010 to 11 in 2050 in a business as usual scenario but down to 6 in a 100 renewable one finally i study the economic implication of a declining eroi an inverse relation between eroi and price is suggested empirically even though theory shows that both quantities may move in the same direction

the footprint of evolutionary processes of learning and selection upon the statistical properties of industrial dynamics evolutionary theories of economic change identify the processes of idiosyncratic learning by individual firms and of market selection as the two main drivers of the dynamics of industries are such processes able to account for the statistical regularities which industrial structures and dynamics display in this work we address this question by means of a simple multi firm model formalizing the mechanisms of learning and selection as such despite its simplicity the model is able to robustly reproduce an ensemble of empirical stylized facts including ample heterogeneity in productivity distributions persistent market turbulence and fat tailed distribution of growth rates

technology shocks and monetary policy assessing the fed s performance abstract the purpose of the present paper is twofold first we characterize the fed s systematic response to technology shocks and its implications for u s output hours and inflation second we evaluate the extent to which those responses can be accounted for by a simple monetary policy rule including the optimal one in the context of a standard business cycle model with sticky prices our main results can be described as follows first we detect significant differences across periods in the response of the economy as well as the fed s to a technology shock second the fed s response to a technology shock in the volcker greenspan period is consistent with an optimal monetary policy rule third in the pre volcker period the fed s policy tended to overstabilize output at the cost of generating excessive inflation volatility our evidence reinforces recent results in the literature suggesting an improvement in the fed s performance

an operational profit sharing and transfer pricing model for network manufacturing companies abstract new age companies are forging partnerships with other firms to market products that have been assembled through manufacturing activities distributed at different locations these locations belong to more than one company and the product passes through these different sites during its manufacturing stages this manufacturing collaboration is known as network manufacturing according to the network philosophy companies form alliances to manufacture a product and share in its operating profits this paper proposes a framework and methodology for profit sharing and transfer pricing between network companies we propose a paradigm that enables maximization of operating profits by the manufacturing network in its larger supply chain suggesting a departure from the model that maximizes profits for the individual company within the sphere of its own supply chain

turbulent firms turbulent wages abstract has greater turbulence among firms fueled rising wage instability in the u s we find strong support for the hypothesis that rising turbulence in the sales of large publicly traded u s firms over the past three decades has raised their workers high frequency wage volatility through controls and instrumental variable probes we rule out straightforward compositional churning as an explanation for the link between firm sales and wage volatility we also observe that the relationship between sales and wage volatility at the firm level is stronger since 1980 is present only in large companies and is stronger in services than in manufacturing companies

gibrat s law and quantile regressions an application to firm growth abstract the nexus between firm growth size and age in u s manufacturing is examined through the lens of quantile regression models this methodology allows us to overcome serious shortcomings entailed by linear regression models employed by much of the existing literature unveiling a number of important properties size pushes both low and high performing firms towards the median rate of growth while age is never advantageous and more so as firms are relatively small and grow faster these findings support theoretical generalizations of gibrat s law that allow size to affect the variance of the growth process but not its mean cordoba 2008

the economic growth enigma capital labour and useful energy abstract we show that the application of flexible semi parametric statistical techniques enables significant improvements in model fitting of macroeconomic models as applied to the explanation of the past economic growth since 1900 in us uk and japan the new results demonstrate quite conclusively the non linear relationships between capital labour and useful energy with economic growth they also indicate that output elasticities of capital labour and useful energy are extremely variable over time we suggest that these results confirm the economic intuition that growth since the industrial revolution has been driven largely by declining energy costs due to the discovery and exploitation of relatively inexpensive fossil fuel resources implications for the 21st century which are also discussed briefly by exploring the implications of an aceges based scenario of oil production are as follows a the provision of adequate and affordable quantities of useful energy as a pre condition for economic growth and b the design of energy systems as technology incubators for a prosperous 21st century

gray market trade with product information service in global supply chains abstract this paper investigates the economic effects of a product information service when potential consumers who are segmented by their taste exist in gray markets specifically we construct an economic model that considers a multinational firm mnf who expands business to a country and chooses whether to provide information service regarding product characteristics if receiving the information consumers in a specific segment whose taste suits the characteristics have positive utility from consuming the product while those in other segments have no utility by contrast consumers in all segments have positive expected utility before consuming the product without information with these settings we demonstrate that there arises the equilibrium that the mnf provides no information service when gray market trade i e parallel trade is allowed in the country leading to lower consumer welfare than when it is prohibited a primary finding in the equilibrium is that such a situation arises especially when potential consumers are less segmented in this situation the regulator in the country should ban the parallel imports so as to enhance consumer welfare the result is counterintuitive and notable because one might intuitively infer that gray market trade is less desirable when customers are more minutely segmented and the product information service is thus more specific and necessary

modeling and design of global logistics systems a review of integrated strategic and tactical models and design algorithms the overall focus of this research is to demonstrate the savings potential generated by the integration of the design of strategic global supply chain networks with the determination of tactical production distribution allocations and transfer prices the logistics systems design problem is defined as follows given a set of potential suppliers potential manufacturing facilities and distribution centers with multiple possible configurations and customers with deterministic demands determine the configuration of the production distribution system and the transfer prices between various subsidiaries of the corporation such that seasonal customer demands and service requirements are met and the after tax profit of the corporation is maximized the after tax profit is the difference between the sales revenue minus the total system cost and taxes the total cost is defined as the sum of supply production transportation inventory and facility costs two models and their associated solution algorithms will be introduced the savings opportunities created by designing the system with a methodology that integrates strategic and tactical decisions rather than in a hierarchical fashion are demonstrated with two case studies the first model focuses on the setting of transfer prices in a global supply chain with the objective of maximizing the after tax profit of an international corporation the constraints mandated by the national taxing authorities create a bilinear programming formulation we will describe a very efficient heuristic iterative solution algorithm which alternates between the optimization of the transfer prices and the material flows performance and bounds for the heuristic algorithms will be discussed the second model focuses on the production and distribution allocation in a single country system when the customers have seasonal demands this model also needs to be solved as a subproblem in the heuristic solution of the global transfer price model the research develops an integrated design methodology based on primal decomposition methods for the mixed integer programming formulation the primal decomposition allows a natural split of the production and transportation decisions and the research identifies the necessary information flows between the subsystems the primal decomposition method also allows a very efficient solution algorithm for this general class of large mixed integer programming models data requirements and solution times will be discussed for a real life case study in the packaging industry 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

explaining the distribution of firm growth rates empirical analyses on aggregated datasets have revealed a common exponential behavior in the shape of the probability density of corporate growth rates we present clear cut evidence on this topic using disaggregated data we explain the observed regularities proposing a model in which firms ability to take up new business opportunities increases with the number of opportunities already exploited a theoretical result is presented for the limiting case in which the number of firms and opportunities go to infinity moreover using simulations we show that even in a small industry the agreement with asymptotic results is almost complete

do firms share the same functional form of their growth rate distribution a statistical test abstract we propose a hypothesis testing procedure to investigate whether the same growth rate distribution is shared by all the firms in a balanced panel or more generally whether they share the same functional form for this distribution without necessarily sharing the same parameters we apply the test to panels of us and european union publicly quoted manufacturing firms both at the sectoral and at the subsectoral naics level we consider the following null hypotheses about the growth rate distribution of the individual firms i an unknown shape common to all firms with all the firms sharing also the same parameters or with the firm variance related to its firm size through a scaling relationship and ii several functional shapes described by the subbotin family of distributions our empirical results indicate that firms do not have a common shape of the growth rate distribution at the sectorial naics level whereas firms may typically be described by the same shape of the distribution at the subsectorial level even if the specific shape may not be the same for different subsectors

more caution is needed when using life cycle assessment to determine energy return on investment eroi abstract cumulative energy demand ced estimates from life cycle assessments lcas are increasingly used to determine energy return on investment eroi but the difference in indicators can lead to a misclassification of energy flows in the assessment the core idea of eroi is to measure the relation of energy diverted from society to make energy available to society ced on the other hand includes forms of energy that are not appropriated by society such as fugitive methane emissions from oil wells as well as losses of heating value of coal during transport and storage such energy forms should be excluded from eroi failure to do so leads to results that are inconsistent with the intention of eroi and potentially misleading we demonstrate how this problem is at least partially rectifiable by adopting consistent energy accounting but also note that among the energy flows not appropriated by society occurring in ced not all flows can easily be removed further we point to inconsistencies in heating value assumptions in a widely used database that have misled analysts finally we argue that the differential weighting of primary energy forms in published ced based eroi work is unsubstantiated and should be reconsidered

volatility accounting a production perspective on increased economic stability this paper examines the declining volatility of u s output growth from a production perspective at the aggregate level increased output stability reflects decreased volatility in both labor productivity growth and hours growth as well as a significant decline in the covariance the decline in output volatility can also be traced to less volatile labor input and total factor productivity growth and the smaller covariance between them at the industry level the decline in volatility appears widespread with about 80 of component industries showing smaller contributions to aggregate output volatility after 1984 although most of the aggregate decline reflects smaller covariances between industries there is also strong evidence of a decline in the correlation between hours and labor productivity growth across industries the paper concludes with a discussion of potential explanations jel e0 e3

intrafirm trade arm s length transfer pricing rule and coordination failure abstract this paper demonstrates that uniform imposition of the arm s length principle on transfer pricing leads to coordination failure among countries in terms of economic welfare if the countries trade products in the form of intrafirm transactions by multinational firms mnfs to highlight this implication we first show that imposition of the arm s length principle on an mnf induces it to transfer a product among subordinate divisions at marginal cost i e the competitive price which is consistent with the purpose of the principle nonetheless if regulators in each country impose the principle on mnfs all of the following economic welfare measures decrease compared with the situation where the principle is not imposed 1 consumer welfare in each of the trading countries 2 profit of each mnf and thus 3 total world economic welfare this result indicates that it is possible that enforcement of the principle has no positive effect at all in the world because economic welfare of all economic agents deteriorates when the principle is imposed a numerical analysis demonstrates that this possibility arises in a broad range of circumstances even including the situation where a giant economic world power and a small underdeveloped country mutually trade products in these circumstances an agreement among trading countries that no country imposes the arm s length principle may encourage pareto improvement of the world economy

growth acquisition activity and firm size evidence from the united kingdom this paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between size growth and acquisition activity of quoted companies in the united kingdom the evidence is based on some two thousand companies and covers the period i960 76 there has been no detailed systematic study for this period the results suggest some revisions to generally accepted views in the area and they have certain implications for industrial and competition policy pursued in the u k and the factors affecting aggregate concentration the paper is arranged as follows section i considers the broader economic context for the study whilst section ii notes some a priori expectations regarding the relationship between size and growth and size and acquisition activity sections iii v present empirical evidence and the last section provides a summary and policy implications of the results

the time varying volatility of macroeconomic fluctuations we investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of us mac roeconomic variables in the postwar period to this end we propose the esti mation of dsge models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations we apply our estimation strategy to a large scale model of the business cycle and find that shocks specific to the equilibrium condition of investment account for most of the sharp decline in volatility of the last two decades jel c51 e32

diverging trends in aggregate and firm volatility this note documents the diverging trends in volatility of the growth rate of sales at the aggregate and firm levels we establish that the upward trend in firm volatility is not simply driven by a compositional bias in the sample studied we argue that this new fact brings into question the proposed explanations for the decline in aggregate volatility and that given the symmetry of the diverging trends at the micro and macro levels a common explanation is likely we conclude by describing one such theory

joint inventory and cash management for multidivisional supply chains this paper develops a centralized supply chain model that integrates material flows with cash flows the supply chain is owned by a single firm with two divisions the downstream division headquarters facing random customer demand replenishes materials from the upstream division the firm installs a financial services platform that pools the divisions cash into a master account managed by the headquarters in each period cash is received from customers and paid to the outside vendor after materials are delivered the headquarters determines how much cash to retain for inventory replenishment the objective is to determine an optimal joint inventory replenishment and cash retention policy for the entire supply chain we prove that the optimal policy has a surprisingly simple structure both divisions implement a base stock policy for inventory replenishment the headquarters monitors the corporate working capital and implements a two threshold policy for cash retention this result is obtained by exte

time varying business volatility and the price setting of firms abstract does time varying business uncertainty volatility affect the price setting of firms and in what way we estimate from the micro data of the german ifo business climate survey the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on the extensive margin of firm level price setting behavior heightened uncertainty increases the probability of a price change suggesting that for price setting the volatility effect dominates the wait and see effect in a second step we use structural vector autoregressions to estimate the effects of uncertainty on the intensive pricing margin higher uncertainty leads to an increase in price dispersion and to larger price adjustments

on firm level industry level and aggregate employment fluctuations employment fluctuations are examined at different levels of aggregation in a model with firm specific hiring decisions due to search frictions and sticky pricing the results indicate that firm level employment dispersion rises with higher price stickiness and higher demand elasticity whereas it falls with more convexity of search costs and with a higher labor supply elasticity industry level employment is more volatile and less procyclical than aggregate employment and a larger industry size reduces volatility and raises co movement with output the calibrated model is able to match the volatility autocorrelation and cyclical correlation of us industry level employment when incorporating firm specific technology shocks

firm growth and laplace distribution the importance of large jumps abstract recent empirical studies have shown that firm growth rate distribution is not gaussian but closely follows a laplace distribution this robust feature of the growth rate distribution challenges existing models based on gibrat s model because it predicts a gaussian distribution first we analyze more than 100 000 japanese firms and empirically show that the laplace shape can be observed for the japanese firms then by using the theory of stochastic processes we theoretically show that the absence of jumps causes the discrepancy between gibrat s model and the laplace shape in particular based on the laplace shape and the law of proportionate effect we show that the firm growth process is a jump process in other words firm growth cannot be explained by the consequence of many small shocks but is determined by a few large jumps the widely observed laplace distribution reflects this jump property of firm growth dynamics

capital market imperfections and financialization of real sectors in emerging markets private investment and cash flow relationship revisited summary the paper analyzes the impacts of cash flow from multiple investments in real and financial sectors on the new fixed investment spending of real sector firms the empirical results based on the euler equation approach and semi annual firm level data from two major emerging markets mexico and turkey suggest that profits and rates of returns from fixed and financial assets have differential effects on fixed investment spending of real sector firms accordingly increasing availability and accessibility of alternative investment opportunities in financial markets can become instrumental in channeling real sector savings to short term financial investments instead of long term fixed capital formation and thus lead to deindustrialization

when is gibrat s law a law the purpose of this article is to investigate if the industry context matters for whether gibrat s law is rejected or not using a dataset that consists of all limited firms in five digit nace industries in sweden during 1998 2004 the results reject gibrat s law on an aggregate level since small firms grow faster than large firms however gibrat s law is confirmed about as often as it is rejected when industry specific regressions are estimated it is also found that the industry context e g minimum efficient scale market concentration rate and number of young firms in the industry matters for whether gibrat s law is rejected or not

inflation and the evolution of firm level liquid assets abstract this paper shows that inflation has been an important determinant of firm level liquid asset holdings liquid assets as a share of total assets the cash ratio for u s corporations steadily declined from the 1960s to the early 1980s and has since steadily increased our empirical analysis finds that inflation is a key factor accounting for these changes we show that these liquid asset holdings are imperfectly hedged against inflation hence changes in inflation alter the real value of a firm s liquid asset portfolio causing them to readjust these balances

surprise surprise measuring firm level investment innovations abstract using the ifo investment survey for the german manufacturing sector we construct a forty year panel of firm level investment innovations surprises we document the cross sectional and time series properties of this panel and our main findings are the cross sectional dispersion of investment surprises is countercyclical as is their average within firm time series volatility and both are highly correlated this justifies in part strategies in the literature to use cross sectional moments for the calibration of heteroscedasticity at the same time the cross sectional dispersion of investment is procyclical suggesting a nonsmooth capital adjustment friction at the micro level there is substantial dispersion in within firm volatility a feature consistent with a recent literature on information frictions at the firm level finally the aforementioned second moments of investment innovations are granger caused by recessions but not vice versa rendering simple exogenous uncertainty shocks less plausible as drivers of business cycles

determining intra company transfer pricing for multinational corporations abstract although significant attention has been paid to transfer pricing the pricing of intermediate products sold between different divisions within one company the focus has been limited to tax minimization within regulatory boundaries this paper presents a comprehensive model that aims to determine the optimal transfer price for a multinational corporation mnc to maximize the entire organization s profit the model considers the situation in which intermediate products are sold from the mnc s selling divisions to buying divisions the buying divisions further process these intermediate products to produce final products the final products are then sold in both selling divisions and buying divisions across the mnc s global locations in contrast to the existing literature our innovative model incorporates elements such as international transportation costs holding costs taxes tariffs including the introduction of a second tariff and exchange rates this paper also provides managerial insights about the impact of setting transfer prices in different currencies on the variance of each division s profit given exchange rate uncertainty

eroi of different fuels and the implications for society abstract all forms of economic production and exchange involve the use of energy directly and in the transformation of materials until recently cheap and seemingly limitless fossil energy has allowed most of society to ignore the importance of contributions to the economic process from the biophysical world as well as the potential limits to growth this paper centers on assessing the energy costs of modern day society and its relation to gdp our most important focus is the characteristics of our major energy sources including each fuel s energy return on investment eroi the eroi of our most important fuels is declining and most renewable and non conventional energy alternatives have substantially lower eroi values than traditional conventional fossil fuels at the societal level declining eroi means that an increasing proportion of energy output and economic activity must be diverted to attaining the energy needed to run an economy leaving less discretionary funds available for non essential purchases which often drive growth the declining eroi of traditional fossil fuel energy sources and the effect of that on the world economy are likely to result in a myriad of consequences most of which will not be perceived as good

innovation and corporate growth in the evolution of the drug industry abstract this work studies the processes of growth of the worlds top 150 pharmaceutical firms on the grounds of an original database which also allows disaggregate analysis at the level of single therapeutical classes and chemical entities our findings show that the industry whose long term evolution is driven by innovation imitation and permanent creation of new markets displays i fat tails in the distribution of growth shocks present at all levels of aggregation with relatively rare big spurs of growth ii a significant autocorrelation of growth rates iii a fall of variance of growth rates with size entirely dependent on corporate diversification patterns in turn plausibly shaped by the competence scope of each firm and iv different lifecycles of diverse types of products and persistent forms of heterogeneity across firms in terms of innovative output which however do not not seem to affect comparative growth performances

reconciling quantile autoregressions of firm size and variance size scaling the aim of this paper is to understand what economic mechanisms may cause the law of proportionate effect to break down for fast growing and shrinking firms recent evidence has highlighted that the first order coefficients of quantile auto regression of firm size decline across quantiles our theoretical results show that negative variance size scaling is sufficient to yield a decline in quantile auto regression coefficients if firm log size is laplace distributed conditional on size one period ahead however it is sufficient only for declining auto regression coefficients for fast growing firms under asymmetric laplace conditional log size if skewness is decreasing with size in other words if the growth of large firms is less dispersed and more left skewed size is a disadvantage for the growth of fast growers but not necessarily an advantage for fast decliners thus size related determinants of negative growth skewness such as diseconomies of growth market power and managerial attention issues impact on how the lpe is violated using data on dutch manufacturing companies from the business register of enterprises observed between 1994 and 2004 our empirical estimates of quantile regression models confirm the evidence of declining quantile regression coefficients for small medium firms 20 199 employees mainly in the right most quantiles and for the same subsample we find that growth rates variance and skewness are decreasing with size the theoretical propositions of the paper are thus corroborated

wage size relation and the structure of work force composition in italian manufacturing firms in this paper we study the impact of firms productivity and scale of activity on the cost of labour for italian manufacturing firms investigating how the work force composition affects the total expenditures for wages our analysis reveals that once productivity differences among firms are accounted for size still retains a positive effect on cost of labour we show that the source of this phenomenon is the relatively higher proportion of non production workers in bigger firms which results in a cost of labour for white collar workers that increases with increasing firm size copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

on the existence of persistently outperforming firms this study analyses persistence in growth rates for a data set of manufacturing firms of all sizes previous quantile autoregressions of firm growth rates show that extreme growth events are likely to be negatively correlated over time thus questioning the existence of persistent outperformers by supplementing the quantile regression analyses with transition probability matrices our study shows that bouncing firms coexist with persistent outperformers this result is shown to be robust for all size classes as well as for the exclusion of firms who experienced acquisitions or spin offs

inter firm rivalry and firm growth is there any evidence of direct competition between firms inter firm competition has received much attention in the theoretical literature but recent empirical work suggests that the growth rates of rival firms are uncorrelated and that firm growth can be taken as an essentially independent process we begin by investigating the correlations of the growth rates of competing firms i e the largest and second largest firms in the same industry and observe that surprisingly the growth of these firms can be taken as independent nevertheless peer effect regressions that take into account the simultaneous interdependence of growth rates of rival firms are able to identify significant negative effects of rivals growth on a firm s growth

considering only first order effects how simplifications lead to unrealistic technology optimism in climate change mitigation this article challenges the notion that energy efficiency and clean energy technologies can deliver sufficient degrees of climate change mitigation by six arguments not widely recognized in the

growth volatility and size a firm level study abstract this paper provides a systematic cross country investigation of the relation between a firm s growth volatility and its size for the first time the analysis is carried out using comparable and representative sets of data sourced by official business registers of an important number of countries we show that there exists a robust negative relation between growth volatility and size with an average elasticity equal to 0 18 we check the robustness of this result against a number of potential sources of bias and in particular with respect to sectoral disaggregation and against the inclusion of firm age our result is consistent with the idea that independently from specific country characteristics there exists a common underlying mechanism driving the elasticity between size and growth volatility we then propose two mechanisms able to explain our result and we conclude discussing its relevance with respect to the recent literature on granularity

firm heterogeneity in capital labour ratios and wage inequality author s leonardi marco abstract this paper documents the increasing dispersion of capital labor ratios across firms in the us and provides some empirical evidence of a positive correlation at the two digit industry level between the dispersion of capital labor ratios across firms and residual wage inequality to explain this empirical fact the paper adopts a search model where firms differ in their optimal capital investment the exogenous decline in the relative price of equipment capital makes the distributions of capital labor ratios more dispersed in a frictional labor market this force generates wage dispersion among identical workers ols estimates of the relationship between capital dispersion and the relative price of equipment capital support the main hypothesis of the model

varying heterogeneity among u s firms facts and implications abstract u s firms stock return volatility rose fivefold from 1971 through 2000 and then reverted to near 1971 levels by 2006 this was driven mainly by a rise and fall in the firm specific rather than systematic component of volatility firm level total factor productivity growth volatility exhibited a similar pattern we hypothesize that firm heterogeneity reflected in firm specific volatility rises as a new general purpose technology gpt propagates across the economy and then ebbs once the gpt is widespread measuring gpt adoption by information technology capital intensity we find robust cross industry empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis

cyclical changes in firm volatility we estimate changes in the volatility of firm level sales earnings and employment growth of us firms our method differs from existing measures for firm level sales and employment volatility in that it not only captures longer run changes in volatility but also measures cyclical changes in firm volatility we detect substantial cyclical variation in firm specific volatility around trend firm specific volatility was low in the early 1990s rose in the mid and late 1990s and was high around 2000 our results are consistent with the hypothesis deduced from models with financial frictions that rising idiosyncratic volatility before 2001 contributed to the coincident rise in the external finance premium and to the 2001 recession endogenous pricing models imply that price adjustment is less frequent and disinflation more costly when firm specific volatility is low consistent with endogenous pricing models we find that the output cost of disinflation was three times larger in the early 1990s than in the early 2000s

invariances and diversities in the evolution of manufacturing industries this work explores and compares some basic properties of corporate growth process at both aggregate manufacturing level and disaggregated sectoral levels using an extensive dataset on italian manufacturing firms we investigate which properties of firm growth dynamics are robust under disaggregation we compare the results obtained with three different definitions of firm size namely total sales number of employees and value added our analysis suggests that while different sectors are characterized by significant differences in firm size distributions in the degrees of concentration and in the autoregressive structure of the growth processes there are also regularities which hold across all of them such as the approximate unit root nature of the growth process and the power exponential shape of the growth rates density together these stylized facts suggest challenging puzzles on the drivers of corporate growth and the resulting industrial structures