a quantile regression analysis of china s provincial co2 emissions where does the difference lie abstract china is already the largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world this paper adopts provincial panel data from 1990 to 2014 and employs quantile regression model to investigate the influencing factors of china s co 2 emissions the results show that economic growth plays a dominant role in the growth of co 2 emissions due to massive fixed asset investment and export trade the influences of energy intensity on the lower 10th and upper 90th quantile provinces are stronger than those in the 25th 50th quantile provinces because of big differences in r d expenditure and human resources distribution the impact of urbanization increases continuously from the lower 10th quantile provinces to the 10th 25th 25th 50th 50th 75th 75th 90th and upper 90th quantile provinces owing to the differences in r d personnel real estate development and motor vehicle ownership the effect of industrialization on the upper 90th quantile provinces is greater than those on other quantile provinces on account of the differences in the industrial scale and the development of the building industry thus the heterogeneity effects of influencing factors on different quantile provinces should be taken into consideration when discussing the mitigation of co 2 emissions in china

the asymmetric linkage between energy use and economic growth in selected african countries evidence from a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model abstract this paper endeavors to shed light on the asymmetric heterogeneous relationship between energy use and economic growth in nineteen selected african countries from 1971 to 2014 we employ to this end a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model and an asymmetric panel causality test the empirical results suggest that the relationship between energy use and economic growth is asymmetric and depends on the phases of economic cycle firstly in periods of economic expansion positive shocks on energy use have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long run but have a weak positive effect in the short run negative shocks on energy use have a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long run but a positive and significant effect in the short run moreover in periods of economic expansion economic growth tends to react more to a decrease in energy use than to an increase in energy use secondly in period of economic contraction positive shocks on energy use accentuate the negative variation of economic growth in the long run while in the short run economic contraction is resorb by negative shocks on energy use thirdly net energy importing economies located in north africa east africa central africa and southern africa are the most subject to energy asymmetric shocks for net energy exporting countries the asymmetric relationship between energy use and economic growth is mixed we also find that negative changes in economic activity lead to negative variations of energy use fourthly positive and negative shocks on the cyclical components of energy use and economic growth do not have over the time the same correlation with positive and negative shocks of one or other of the variables from the research that has been carried out it appears that sound economic policy decisions require information on the asymmetric linkage between energy use and economic growth

role of renewable energy on industrial output in canada abstract several scholars have highlighted the idea that energy consumption in general and consumption of renewable energy re in particular may be a potential driver of economic growth in this paper we examine the relationship between re production and economic activity in canada between may 1966 and december 2015 by applying quantile causality troster 2018 we adopt a nonlinear approach considering all quantiles of the distribution and analysing monthly data consisting of re production and the canadian industrial production index ipi we find evidence of a nonlinear relationship in canada an important result that widely used linear models fail to capture our main findings imply a unidirectional relationship going from the ipi to re production which supports the conservation hypothesis the directionality between re and economic growth is sensitive to the market conditions in canada

energy consumption gdp nexus heterogeneous panel causality analysis abstract existing studies examining the granger causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp use a panel of countries but implicitly assume that the panels are homogeneous this paper extends the granger causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp by taking into account panel heterogeneity for this purpose we use a large panel of 79 countries for the period 1980 2007 specifically we examine four different causal relationships homogeneous non causality homogeneous causality heterogeneous non causality and heterogeneous causality the results show that roughly seven tenths of the countries exhibit bi directional granger causality two tenths exhibit no granger causality and one tenths exhibit uni directional granger causality

renewable and non renewable energy use economic growth nexus the case of mena net oil importing countries abstract this study examines the energy use economic growth nexus by disaggregating energy use into two types of energy renewable and non renewable energy use our sample consists of eleven mena net oil importing countries noics during the period 1980 2012 a multivariate panel framework was used to estimate the long run relationship and the panel granger causality tests was employed to assess the causality direction among variables the empirical results provide evidence for long term equilibrium relationship between real gross domestic product gdp renewable energy use non renewable energy use real gross fixed capital formation and labor force the results provide evidence also for positive and statistically significant elasticities moreover the empirical findings from panel error correction model confirm the existence of bidirectional causality between renewable energy use and economic growth and between non renewable energy use and economic growth results that support the feedback hypothesis moreover our empirical findings provide evidence for two way bidirectional causal association in both the short and long run between renewable and non renewable energy use which proves the substitutability and interdependence between these two types of energy sources the policies implications of these results are also proposed and discussed

effects of renewable energy sector development on electricity consumption growth nexus in the european union abstract the aim of this study is to assess the effect of renewable energy sector development on the relationships between electricity consumption and economic growth in the european union countries in the period between 1995 and 2015 a panel vector autoregressive model is used for testing granger causality and estimating impulse response functions the results indicate that the relationships between economic growth and electricity consumption depend on the level of renewable energy sector development the greater the share of the renewable energy sector in the economy is the more noticeable the mutual dependence between the economic growth and renewable electricity consumption is in countries with relatively well developed renewable energy sectors renewable electricity consumption boosts the economy and vice versa in the remaining countries economic growth and electricity consumption are independent empirical findings suggest that policymakers should develop strategies to implement clean energy policy aimed at stimulating the development of the renewable energy sector to support economic growth

why the middle is unstable the political economy of exchange rate regimes and currency crises the contribution of sticky exchange rates to the rash of currency crises over the past decade has become a major topic of international monetary analysis and policy discussion while there is widespread agreement among economists that the middle of the exchange rate spectrum adjustable pegs is highly crisis prone in a world of substantial capital mobility jeffrey frankel has recently argued that surprisingly we lack a clear theoretical rationale for why this is so this paper attempts to fill that void it argues that frankel is correct in terms of economic analysis alone but that when political economy considerations are introduced then a satisfactory explanation is at hand key aspects of this political economy perspective are laid out and implications for exchange rate policy are considered the analysis suggests that for promoting currency stability the traditionally debated distinctions between crawling bands and managed floats are likely less important than the political environments in which they are operated

on the causal dynamics between emissions nuclear energy renewable energy and economic growth this paper examines the causal relationship between co2 emissions nuclear energy consumption renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a group of 19 developed and developing countries for the period 1984 2007 using a panel error correction model the long run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant negative association between nuclear energy consumption and emissions but a statistically significant positive relationship between emissions and renewable energy consumption the results from the panel granger causality tests suggest that in the short run nuclear energy consumption plays an important role in reducing co2 emissions whereas renewable energy consumption does not contribute to reductions in emissions this may be due to the lack of adequate storage technology to overcome intermittent supply problems as a result electricity producers have to rely on emission generating energy sources to meet peak load demand

energy consumption financial development and economic growth in india new evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis this paper investigates the asymmetric relationship between energy consumption and economic growth by incorporating financial development capital and labour into a production function covering the indian economy from 1960q1 2015q4 the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach is applied to examine the asymmetric cointegration between the variables an asymmetric causality test is also employed to examine the causal association between the considered variables the results indicate cointegration between the variables in the presence of asymmetries the asymmetric causality results show that only negative shocks in energy consumption have impacts on economic growth in the same vein only negative shocks in financial development have impacts on economic growth by contrast symmetrically capital formation causes economic growth finally over the study period a neutral effect exists between the labour force and economic growth in india the implications of these results for growth policies in india are also discussed

can leading indicators assess country vulnerability evidence from the 2008 09 global financial crisis abstract we investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross country incidence of the 2008 09 financial crisis rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the recent crisis the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators our motivation is to address suspicions that indicators found to be useful predictors in one round of crises are typically not useful to predict the next round the review suggests that central bank reserves and past movements in the real exchange rate were the two leading indicators that had proven the most useful in explaining crisis incidence across different countries and episodes in the past for the 2008 09 crisis we use six different variables to measure crisis incidence drops in gdp and industrial production currency depreciation stock market performance reserve losses and participation in an imf program we find that the level of reserves in 2007 appears as a consistent and statistically significant leading indicator of who got hit by the 2008 09 crisis in line with the conclusions of the pre 2008 literature in addition to reserves recent real appreciation is a statistically significant predictor of devaluation and of a measure of exchange market pressure during the current crisis we define the period of the global financial shock as running from late 2008 to early 2009 which probably explains why we find stronger results than earlier papers such as obstfeld et al 2009 2010 and rose and spiegel 2009a b 2010 2011 which use annual data

the relationship amongst energy consumption renewable and non renewable and gdp in algeria abstract this study aims to explore economic growth energy consumption nexus in algeria between 1980 and 2012 with cointegration tests we demonstrate the existence of long run link between real gross domestic product real capital and the two categories of energy consumption i e renewable energy per capita and non renewable energy the long run and the short run autoregressive distributed lag ardl estimates indicate that only the non renewable energy sort and capital can contribute to enhancing economic growth whereas renewable energy does not show any significant effect the outcome of causality tests proves a feedback link among non renewable energy consumption and gross domestic product among capital and gross domestic product and among non renewable energy and capital in both short run and long run terms moreover the results reveal a unidirectional link going from renewable energy to economic growth capital and non renewable energy respectively in the long run furthermore the results illustrate the presence of a unidirectional link going from non renewable energy to renewable energy in the short term our outcome suggests that policy makers in algeria should enhance the renewable energy share together with controlling the non renewable one

growth and renewable energy in europe a random effect model with evidence for neutrality hypothesis this is an empirical study on the causal relationship between economic growth and renewable energy for 27 european countries in a multivariate panel framework over the period 1997 2007 using a random effect model and including final energy consumption greenhouse gas emissions and employment as additional independent variables in the model empirical results do not confirm causality between renewable energy consumption and gdp although panel causality tests unfold short run relationships between renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions and employment the estimated cointegration factor refrains from unity indicating only a weak if any relationship between economic growth and renewable energy consumption in europe suggesting evidence of the neutrality hypothesis which can partly be explained by the uneven and insufficient exploitation of renewable energy sources across europe

ordinary and special regimes of electricity generation in spain how they interact with economic activity abstract the purpose of this paper is to review the literature focused on the energy electricity growth nexus highlighting how the focus has shifted from aggregated energy electricity consumption towards specific energy sources moreover it aims to shed light on the relationships between different energy electricity sources and economic growth empirically the paper focuses on the analysis of interactions between electricity generation in spain under both the special regime sr and the ordinary regime or and their relationship with economic activity data for spain is studied for a time span from january 2003 to january 2016 the toda yamamoto causality test is carried out to check for causality relationships additionally both short and long run effects are assessed by using the ardl bounds test approach overall the results reveal high internal consistency when comparing the ardl results with the causality analysis the substitution effect was detected between or and sr however the negative effect of the sr on economic activity deserves special attention by energy policymakers this paper argues that the main challenge of renewable sources for policymakers is their cost effectiveness

the renewable energy and economic growth nexus in black sea and balkan countries the aim of this study is to explore the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth within the framework of traditional production function for the period of 1990 2012 in 9 black sea and balkan countries for this purpose we use pedroni 1999 2004 panel cointegration pedroni 2000 2001 co integration estimate methods and dumitrescu and hurlin 2012 heterogeneous panel causality estimation techniques the study has concluded that there is a long term balance relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth and renewable energy consumption has a positive impact on economic growth heterogeneous panel causality analysis results support growth hypothesis in bulgaria greece macedonia russia and ukraine feedback hypothesis in albania georgia and romania neutrality hypothesis in turkey and according to the panel data set including all nine countries the results support feedback hypothesis with the findings it was concluded that there is a significant impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth in balkan and black sea countries

an overview of afghanistan s trends toward renewable and sustainable energies relentless environmental concerns steep hike in fossil fuel price and increasing demand of non renewable fossil fuels consumption have dramatically increased global search for alternative energies the world requests ever growing energy supplies to sustain economic development and improvement renewable and sustainable energy ever more becoming accepted and established a decisive place in energy system of the word due to ecologicallyresponsiveinsight and a decrease in equipment expenses consistent with its endowment of energy resources each country tried to figure out its own energy portfolio and employing technologies which are economically viable and socially equitable and have minimal adverse impacts this article attempts to review all possible renewable energy sources as a substitute of the current energy profile coal natural gas and petroleum in afghanistan the study found afghanistan power sector as one of the least development sector which its inadequate status is preventing the development of the country as well eventhough the energy is not the only panacea but cost effective energies in abundant quantity and quality on sustainable foundation will help to reach to demand socio economic development the results indicate that afghanistan due to its natural and geographical situations enjoys important prospective for renewable energy bases such as solar wind geothermal and micro hydro power renewable energies could offer the ultimate solution for afghanistan in general and rural areas in actual but switch to altered forms of energy is grounded in multifaceted interations the study indicates number of issues such as great upfront charges absence of providers insufficient funding appliances and feebleindorsed and methodologicalcapability overwhelm and affected the use of renewable energies and technologies in afghanistan however with sufficient investment and practical stages by government andnongovernment agencies and the public encourage these unbound sources could play a vital role not only in afghanistan s energy supply but also in poverty reduction social and political stability and improving living standard

the rise of fund managers in foreign exchange will fundamentals ultimately dominate this paper analyses the behaviour and motivation of fund managers in foreign exchange markets reflected in questionnaire evidence we find that fund managers and fx dealers differ significantly fund managers rely more on fundamentals basically due to their longer forecasting horizons and reject non fundamental influences on exchange rates more than fx dealers however neither can fund managers be considered as pure fundamentalists non fundamentalist positions markedly influence short term decision making they inspire ambivalent views about market imperfections and these views seem to become stronger over time this latter change counterbalances the strengthening fundamental influences resulting from the rise of fund managers

renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies abstract increased economic growth and demand for energy in emerging economies is creating an opportunity for these countries to increase their usage of renewable energy this paper presents and estimates two empirical models of renewable energy consumption and income for a panel of emerging economies panel cointegration estimates show that increases in real per capita income have a positive and statistically significant impact on per capita renewable energy consumption in the long term a 1 increase in real income per capita increases the consumption of renewable energy per capita in emerging economies by approximately 3 5 long term renewable energy per capita consumption price elasticity estimates are approximately equal to 0 70

economic growth fossil fuel and non fossil consumption a pooled mean group analysis using proxies for capital this study employs a pooled mean group estimator to examine the nexus between economic growth and fossil and non fossil fuel consumption for 53 countries between 1990 and 2012 the global sample was divided into four categories developed exporters developed importers developing exporters and developing importers the purpose of these categories was to observe whether factors unique to these countries influence the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth with the exception of developing importers evidence of bi directional causality between fossil fuel consumption and real gdp across all subsamples is observed this leads to the conclusion that efforts to directly conserve fossil fuels may harm economic growth in terms of non fossil fuel use the results are more diverse bi directional causality between non fossil fuel use and real gdp is found in the long and short run for developed importers bi directional causality only in the long run for developed exporters negative long run causality from real gdp to non fossil fuels for developing exporters and long run causality from non fossil fuel use to real gdp for developing importers these results lead to the conclusion that other factors have been responsible for the progress seen in non fossil fuel use thus it is concluded that economic growth on its own is insufficient to promote clean energy development there is a need for policy makers to create an environment conducive to renewable energy investment

endogenous changes in the exchange rate regime a bureaucratic incentive model public choice submits that legal changes can be endogenous in such a way that they are manipulated by bureaucrats who want to maximize rents from transactions with various interest groups this paper takes the change in exchange rate regimes to empirically examine the premise it offers a two stage method in which we first show that the exchange rate is influenced by interest group pressures and subsequently that the 1990 market average regime mar as a phase in policy in korea was introduced mainly to serve bureaucratic incentives this method is expected to be useful to a host of countries for various studies attempting to test a possible existence of bureaucratic or other hidden motivations behind any isolated event of policy change

renewable and non renewable energy consumption growth nexus evidence from a panel error correction model abstract unlike previous renewable energy consumption growth studies this study examines the relationship between renewable and non renewable energy consumption and economic growth for 80 countries within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1990 2007 the pedroni 1999 2004 heterogeneous panel cointegration test show a long run equilibrium relationship between real gdp renewable energy consumption non renewable energy consumption real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force with the respective coefficient estimates positive and statistically significant there is little difference in the elasticity estimates with respect to renewable and non renewable energy consumption the results from the panel error correction model reveal bidirectional causality between renewable and non renewable energy consumption and economic growth in both the short and long run also there is bidirectional short run causality between renewable and non renewable energy consumption indicative of substitutability between the two energy sources

volatility persistence and stock valuations some empirical evidence using garch summary in this paper issues of volatility persistence and the changing risk premium in the stock market are investigated using the garch estimation technique we get a point estimate of the index of relative risk aversion of 4 5 and confirm the existence of changing equity premiums in the us during 1962 1985 the persistence of shocks to the stock return volatility is so high that the data cannot reject a non stationary volatility process specification the results of this paper are consistent with malkiel and pindyck s hypothesis that it is the unforseen rise ini the investment uncertainty during 1974 that causes the market to plunge

currency crises and institutions abstract this study furthers recent literature on currency crises and institutions the main objective is to re evaluate the causes of currency crises by focusing on the role played by a broader array of institutional factors and crisis episodes than have previously been considered while at the same time controlling for economic factors our dataset consists of over 30 countries covering 13 institutional factors for the period 1984 2002 two questions are addressed they are 1 what mix of institutions may contribute to or set the stage for a currency crisis and 2 what mix of institutions may affect the depth of currency crises as measured by a decline in output our findings reveal that institutional as well as economic factors affect the probability of currency crises and that worse institutions are associated with bigger contractions in output during the crisis in general our strongest results regarding institutions show that corruption a de facto fixed exchange rate regime weak government stability and weak law and order increase the probability of a currency crisis we find mixed evidence that deposit insurance the removal of capital controls a lack of central bank independence financial liberalization and civil law increase the chance of crisis we find a similar set of factors worsens the contraction in output during a crisis except for deposit insurance which we find moderates the contraction in output

predicting currency fluctuations and crises do resident firms have an informational advantage the authors investigate whether resident enterprise managers have an informational advantage about the countries in which they work they propose a method for extracting information available to resident managers but unknown to investors and forecasters they rest their hypothesis of informational advantage using a unique data set the global competitiveness survey the survey asks local managers about their outlook for the country in which they reside they find that local managers do have useful private information local managers responses improve on conventional forecasts of future volatility and changes in the exchange rate which are based on economic fundamentals or interest rate differentials they find that the local business community perceived in advance the recent crises in the republic of korea russia and thailand but not those in indonesia and malaysia markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates

relationships between oil price shocks and stock market an empirical analysis from china this paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto regression oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most chinese stock market indices except for manufacturing index and some oil companies some important oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index which raise their stock returns both the world oil price shocks and china oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

renewable energy consumption economic growth and human development index in pakistan evidence form simultaneous equation model abstract the major consumption of energy around the globe is related to human activities however it may be essential to quantify how renewable energy consumption influence process of human development this particular area of research still needs to be explored thus this paper explores the relationship between renewable energy consumption economic growth and human development index for 1990 2014 in pakistan by using two stage least square 2sls method empirical results reveal that renewable energy consumption does not improve the situation of the human development process in pakistan more interestingly higher the income of the country the lower is level of human development in addition the co2 emission is helpful to improve human development index furthermore trade openness discourages human development process in pakistan furthermore causality analysis confirms feedback hypothesis between environmental factor and human development process in the long run path these novel findings would help policymaker and government officials to better understand the role of renewable energy and economic growth in the human development process in pakistan

currency crashes in emerging markets an empirical treatment we use a panel of annual data for over 100 developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes we define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation we examine the composition of the debt as well as its level and a variety of other macroeconomic factors external and foreign crashes tend to occur when output growth is low the growth of domestic credit is high and the level of foreign interest rates are high a low ratio of fdi to debt is consistently associated with a high likelihood of a crash

estimation methods for stochastic volatility models a survey abstract although stochastic volatility sv models have an intuitive appeal their empirical application has been limited mainly due to difficulties involved in their estimation the main problem is that the likelihood function is hard to evaluate however recently several new estimation methods have been introduced and the literature on sv models has grown substantially in this article we review this literature we describe the main estimators of the parameters and the underlying volatilities focusing on their advantages and limitations both from the theoretical and empirical point of view we complete the survey with an application of the most important procedures to the s p 500 stock price index

energy consumption and gdp causality a three step analysis for emerging european countries abstract the established european targets should play a leading role in the complex economic process of energy consumption and the emerging countries have to consider their implications for adjusting the energy policies at national level this paper develops investigations on the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in the context of emerging european countries covering the period 1980 2013 this research covers the limits identified by previous researchers by detailing the energy consumption by sources and by referring to five emerging countries in europe unlike most of the previous studies it has a double approach long and short run bidirectional relationships a detailed analysis on the impact of economic growth on the energy consumption by country is conducted in order to contribute to the enrichment of the research field towards this objective a three step analysis is performed stationarity cointegration and causality tests are considered the empirical study shows mixed results there is a balance in confirming conservation growth and neutrality hypotheses in some specific cases results imply that energy consumption and economic growth are jointly determined however a comparative analysis for different significance levels draws attention on the differences in judgment of results for this type of studies discussions on the results in terms of causality are conducted in order to identify future trends for research

does diversity matter a fresh inquiry into the energy economy and environment nexus the article extends the literature on the nexus among economy environment and energy by incorporating an index of electricity generation diversity in production and emission functions the index i

the impact of economic globalization on renewable energy in the oecd countries abstract this paper analyzes the determinants of renewable energy consumption in the panel data of 30 oecd countries for the period from 1970 to 2015 the unique role is given to the effect of economic globalization on renewable energy we consider several measures of economic globalization and apply different econometric techniques we find the positive impact of the per capita income the per capita carbon dioxide emissions and the real price of oil on renewable energy also a higher level of economic globalization promotes renewable energy and the evidence is robust to the different measures of economic globalization in line with our findings promoting the economic aspects of globalization will enhance renewable energy thus it can suppress the adverse effect of climate change and global warming on living human beings and natural habitats in the long run therefore we need to enhance our knowledge of how globalization promotes renewable energy not only for the oecd countries but also for other developing and developed economies from a policy perspective we suggest that policymakers and governments in oced countries should consider economic globalization as a renewable energy promoting mechanism while designing their energy demand policy for the protection of natural environmental health

integration of renewable energy sources in southeast europe a review of incentive mechanisms and feasibility of investments abstract incentivizing development and deployment of renewable energy sources res but also other low carbon technologies lct has been a successful way of promoting new technologies by creating a feasible investment case and making them competitive with traditional energy sources although different incentive mechanisms exist feed in tariffs have shown to be the best model for accelerating lct development guaranteeing producers preferential prices for the produced electricity over a period of time and enabling them access to the power network to sell inject produced electricity due to these benefits feed in tariff models are the most common model for stimulating res integration in southeast europe the paper reviews the current state of preferential tariffs for res in countries of southeast europe while some countries already have significant installed res capacity others are still in the planning stage the review shows that the amount of installed capacity of a specific technology has a strong impact on the support for the future projects for same technology this comprehensive review of legislative development supporting res as well as technologies preferred in different countries of the region is supported with feasibility assessment of investing in res using the example of two different technology projects wind and photovoltaic analysing the impact of the current tariffs on the return on investment for each country of the region

explaining the duration of exchange rate pegs abstract this paper is an empirical investigation of the duration of exchange rate pegs in 16 latin american countries and jamaica we identify factors that influence peg duration using logit analysis the real exchange rate and the level of international liquidity are significant determinants of the monthly likelihood of devaluation structural variables such as the openness of an economy and its geographical trade concentration and political variables such as changes in the executive also significantly affect the likelihood of a devaluation there is some evidence that the likelihood of a devaluation first rises and subsequently declines during the first year of a peg

renewable energy consumption co2 emissions and oil prices in the g7 countries abstract economic and societal issues related to energy security and global warming is placing greater emphasis on the consumption of renewable energy this paper presents and estimates an empirical model of renewable energy consumption for the g7 countries panel cointegration estimates show that in the long term increases in real gdp per capita and co2 per capita are found to be major drivers behind per capita renewable energy consumption these results are robust across two different panel cointegration estimators oil price increases have a smaller although negative impact on renewable energy consumption deviations from equilibrium are driven mostly by the error correction term as opposed to short term shocks short term deviations from the long term equilibrium take anywhere from between 1 3 years france and 7 3 years japan to correct

oil prices nuclear energy consumption and economic growth new evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis abstract this paper applies panel data analysis to examine the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium relationships among nuclear energy consumption oil prices oil consumption and economic growth for developed countries covering the period 1971 2006 the panel cointegration results show that in the long run oil prices have a positive impact on nuclear energy consumption suggesting the existence of the substitution relationship between nuclear energy and oil the long run elasticity of nuclear energy with respect to real income is approximately 0 89 and real income has a greater impact on nuclear energy than do oil prices in the long run furthermore the panel causality results find evidence of unidirectional causality running from oil prices and economic growth to nuclear energy consumption in the long run while there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in the short run

determinants of renewable energy development in the eu countries a 20 year perspective abstract the objective of the paper is to identify factors which determine energy policy in the eu countries in the middle of 1990s this objective is achieved in three stages first the changes in the distribution of res in 26 eu countries in the period between 1995 and 2014 are investigated the analysis demonstrates that over the last 20 years the eu countries diversify the res they use which results in substantial changes in their distribution second the distribution of energy sources in 1995 is described as it is assumed that the distribution might be a crucial factor influencing energy policy in each country third several other factors related to energy security environmental concerns economy and politics are considered as potential determinants of renewable energy development two statistical methods of variable selection namely the best subset regression and the lars method reveal that the present in 2014 share of res in the energy mix significantly depends on the condition of the eu countries in the middle of 1990s the distribution of energy sources in 1995 is the crucial determinant of renewable energy development countries without their own fossil fuel sources are the ones which develop renewable energy to the greatest extent other important factors boosting re development include gdp per capita concentration of energy supply swi and the costs of consumption of energy obtained from fossil fuels in relation to gdp

cross country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis the financial crisis of 2007 2008 is rooted in a number of factors some common to previous financial crises others new analysis of post crisis macroeconomic and financial sector performance for 58 advanced countries and emerging markets shows a differential impact of old and new factors factors common to other crises like asset price bubbles and current account deficits help to explain cross country differences in the severity of real economic impacts new factors such as increased financial integration and dependence on wholesale funding help to account for the amplification and global spread of the financial crisis our findings point to vulnerabilities to be monitored and areas of needed national and international reforms to reduce risk of future crises and cross border spillovers they also reinforce a sad state of knowledge much of how crises start and spread remains unknown stijn claessens giovanni dell ariccia deniz igan and luc laeven

stock returns and volatility an empirical study of the uk stock market abstract attempts to quantify the relationship between stock returns and volatility have produced conflicting conclusions in recent u s studies our paper examines this issue in the u k context for the first time using daily weekly fortnightly and monthly returns on the financial times all share index from january 1965 to december 1989 volatility estimates are obtained from monthly sample variances and arch models expected returns are shown to have had a positive though not statistically significant relationship with expected volatility the relationship between the unexpected components of the returns and volatility series is less clear we find evidence for a negative relationship but only when volatility expectations are represented by standard deviations

measuring the strength of cointegration and granger causality this study uses poskitt and tremayne s 1987 posterior odds ratio test and the associated model portfolio approach to measure the strength of the evidence from cointegration and granger causality tests as an illustration of the methodology the bivariate relationship between money and income in canada is re examined using historical data

renewable energy consumption and economic growth evidence from a panel of oecd countries abstract this study examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a panel of twenty oecd countries over the period 1985 2005 within a multivariate framework given the relatively short span of the time series data a panel cointegration and error correction model is employed to infer the causal relationship the heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals a long run equilibrium relationship between real gdp renewable energy consumption real gross fixed capital formation and the labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the granger causality results indicate bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in both the short and long run

inflation and central bank independence conventional wisdom redux until recently there existed a broad consensus that an important institution for combating inflation is a central bank insulated from political influence this conventional wisdom has been challenged by among others campillo and miron 1997 who present evidence purporting to show that if an inflation regression equation is expanded to include not only their proxy for central bank independence cbi but other regressors as well then the negative correlation between inflation and cbi vanishes the present paper argues that allegations of the demise of this nexus should not be accepted uncritically this paper which reports the results of an analysis of covariance structures finds a strong negative relationship between inflation and cbi

energy innovation and renewable energy consumption in the correction of air pollution levels abstract this study analyses the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution specifically it investigates the presence of an environmental kuznets curve ekc in 17 oecd countries over the period of 1990 2012 the results confirm the existence of an n shaped ekc relationship between income and environmental degradation the study offers a novel methodological contribution that makes it possible to explain the environmental pollution process through the analysis of low carbon technologies this demonstrates how income levels affect energy consumption and how higher energy demand leads to a larger share of fossil sources in the energy mix and thus increased greenhouse gas ghg emissions the effect on per capita ghg emissions is explored in a model containing a dampening variable that moderates the relationship between energy consumption and income this empirical evidence helps to explain the interaction between energy regulation economic growth and carbon emissions this study also confirms the positive effect that energy innovation process exerts on environmental pollution finally it is noted that renewable energy sources help to improve air quality

the persistence of volatility and stock market fluctuations this paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices it demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated implying that shocks to volatility do not persist these shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices since changes in volatility affect expected required rates of return for relatively short intervals these findings lead us to be skeptical of recent claims that the stock market s poor performance during the 1970 s can be explained by volatility induced increases in risk premia this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

exchange rate regimes and the cross country distribution of the 1997 financial crisis robin m grier we study variations in the severity of the 1997 financial crisis in a sample of 25 developing countries we use both currency depreciation and stock market returns as crisis measures our key findings are that countries that started 1997 with an exchange rate peg experienced significantly greater currency depreciation and significantly lower stock returns than would be predicted from the levels of various macroeconomic indicators jel f3 f4 i introduction the asian financial crisis of 1997 is still a very hot topic a recent search of econlit turned up 243 articles in the system with asian crisis in the subject field 1 several recent articles attempt to explain variations in the severity of the crisis across developing countries using macroeconomic and financial variables and show that the distribution of the crisis is somewhat predictable our article extends this literature in two directions first we examine whether the initial exchange rate regime in place at the beginning of 1997 had any effect on the distribution of the financial crisis once the relevant macro and financial indicators are included in the model second given that a real crisis followed on the heels of the financial one we study the relationship between exchange rate regime currency depreciation and stock market performance in 1997 our sample consists of 25 developing countries in 1997 2 though a cross sectional approach limits the generality of our results we believe we can ask and answer two interesting questions about the average performance of different exchange rate regimes in 1997 the first question is controlling for economic indicators what was the average effect of having an initially pegged exchange rate on currency depreciation there are theoretical arguments presented in section ii that can justify either positive negative or zero effects we find that on average countries with a pegged regime at the beginning of the year experienced more depreciation than what was predicted by their macro indicators the second question we study is what was the average effect of currency depreciation on stock market performance in 1997 again there are arguments presented in section iii supporting either a positive negative or neutral relationship we find that on average depreciation has a marginally significant negative impact on stock returns however in the 12 countries that began 1997 with a floating exchange rate currency depreciation had a significantly positive effect on stock returns whereas the effect of depreciation on stock returns was negative and significant for the 13 countries that started the year with a pegged currency this relationship holds for stock returns measured either in u s dollars or in local currencies the papers most similar to ours in the literature are tornell and velasco 1995 edwards 1993 corsetti et al 1999 hereafter cpr and tornell 1999 tornell and velasco and edwards study whether or not the choice of exchange rate regime affects economic outcomes 3 cpr and tornell study the asian financial crisis of 1997 in the broader context of developing country performance they create a crisis index and estimate several regressions using macro and financial indicators to predict the extent of the crisis in a sample of developing countries our article applies the idea that the choice of exchange rate regime can affect macroeconomic and financial outcomes to the study of the determinants of the severity of the 1997 crisis in a model similar to those of cpr and tornell in what follows below section ii studies the relationship between macro and financial indicators the initial exchange rate regime and currency depreciation in 1997 section iii considers the depreciation exchange rate regime stock market connection in 1997 section iv presents our conclusions ii macro indicators currency depreciation and exchange rate regime in 1997 the question of what exactly determines the value of the exchange rate is an important unsolved issue in open economy macroeconomics and we are not going to settle it here

cross country causes and consequences of the crisis an update abstract we update rose and spiegel forthcoming rose and spiegel 2010 and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the great recession of 2008 09 we use a cross country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars we check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity and a variety of different country samples while countries with higher income and looser credit market regulation seemed to suffer worse crises we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre crisis data of the incidence of the great recession countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns

the role of renewable energy consumption in economic growth evidence from asymmetric causality abstract this paper investigates the causality among economic growth renewable energy consumption capital and labor for new eu member countries for the period of 1990 2009 by using asymmetric causality test approach and autoregressive distributed lag ardl approach the empirical results support that renewable energy consumption has positive impacts on economic growth for all investigated countries but only for bulgaria estonia poland and slovenia there is statistically significant impact on economic growth has found and also supports neutrality hypothesis for cyprus estonia hungary poland and slovenia while the conservation hypothesis is present for czech republic the fact that there is a causal relationship from economic growth to renewable energy consumption and the growth hypothesis is supported for bulgaria referring to causality from energy consumption to economic growth

the relationship amongst energy consumption foreign direct investment and output in developed and developing countries abstract the current study inspects the nexus amongst energy consumption fdi inflows and output in 75 countries meantime the period 1990 2010 we further examine this relationship with regard to developed as well as developing countries assembled from diverse geographic regions from the world the present results display that there is proof of bidirectional linkage concerning fdi and output per capita concerning renewable energy consumption and gross domestic product per capita and concerning non renewable energy and gross domestic product per capita in the three groups of countries developed all and developing in addition the judgments detect a bidirectional linkage concerning renewable energy consumption and fdi in developed countries an increase of 1 rate in renewable energy participates to improving fdi by 0 185 and at the same time an increase of fdi contributes to enhancing renewable energy by 0 292 nevertheless in the case of all and developing countries the results discover unidirectional link moving from foreign inflows to both sorts of energy in conclusion the policy recommendations of our empirical results are taken into consideration

exchange rate regimes and wage comovements in a ricardian model with money we construct a ricardian model of trade with money and trade costs the model predicts that the nominal wages of the trading countries exhibit stronger positive comovements when the countries fix their bilateral exchange rates while comovements of real wages are not affected by exchange rate regimes our numerical experiments suggest that a reduction in trade costs increases both nominal and real wage comovements regardless of regimes when downward nominal wage rigidity is introduced nominal wage comovements under the fixed regime remain stronger than under the flexible regime and the difference is smaller on the shorter time horizon while a slight difference in real wage comovements between the two regimes shows up and is larger on the shorter time horizon when we consider membership in the economic and monetary union of the european union as a fixed exchange rate regime panel regression results based on data from oecd countries are broadly consistent with our model and numerical experiments

predicting currency crises abstract in recent years a number of researchers have claimed success in systematically predicting which countries are more likely to suffer currency crises most notably kaminsky lizondo and reinhart 1998 this paper evaluates the klr approach to anticipating currency crises and develops and tests an alternative first we try to answer the question if we had been using the klr model in late 1996 how well armed would we have been to predict the asia crisis second we analyze a more general probit based model of predicting currency crises in the process we test several basic assumptions underlying the indicators approach

exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks this paper evaluates the causes and consequences of episodes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets using data from 1959 through 1993 for twenty oecd countries we consider the antecedents and aftermath of devaluations and revaluations flotations fixings and speculative attacks which may not be successful we find that realignments of fixed exchange rates are alike devaluations are preceded by political instability budget and current account deficits and fast growth of money and prices revaluations are mirror images of devaluations speculative attacks resemble devaluations but money growth and inflation are more endemic and there is no last minute attempt to tighten monetary policy in contrast few consistent correlations link regime transitions like flotations or fixings to macroeconomic or political variables transitions between exchange rate regimes are largely idiosyncratic and are neither consistently provoked ex ante by systematic imbalances nor typically justified ex post by subsequent changes in policy we conclude that there are no clear early warning signals of many speculative attacks and no easy solutions for policy makers barry eichengreen andrew k rose and charles wyplosz

bayesian unit root testing in stochastic volatility models this article uses a bayesian unit root test in stochastic volatility models the time series of interest is the volatility that is unobservable the unit root testing is based on the posterior odds ratio which is approximated by markov chain monte carlo methods simulations show that the testing procedure is efficient for moderate sample size the unit root hypothesis is rejected in seven market indexes and some evidence of nonstationarity is observed in the twsi of taiwan

are currency crises predictable abstract this paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises the results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining the crises however although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different exchange rate misalignment measures into consideration expectations fail to anticipate currency crises

the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the united states an ardl approach abstract we re examine the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output as well as employment in the united states using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl approach developed by pesaran and pesaran pesaran m h pesaran b 1997 working with microfit 4 0 camfit data ltd cambridge and pesaran shin and smith pesaran m h shin y smith r j 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 16 289 326 in particular we focus attention on the following energy consumption variables coal fossil fuels conventional hydroelectric power solar energy wind energy natural gas wood and waste the sample period covers 2001 1 2005 6 our results imply that real output and employment are long run forcing variables for nearly all measures of disaggregate energy consumption

nuclear energy consumption oil prices and economic growth evidence from highly industrialized countries this study utilizes the johansen cointegration technique the granger non causality test of toda and yamamoto 1995 the generalized impulse response function and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition to examine the dynamic interrelationship among nuclear energy consumption real oil price oil consumption and real income in six highly industrialized countries for the period 1965 2008 our empirical results indicate that the relationships between nuclear energy consumption and oil are as substitutes in the u s and canada while they are complementary in france japan and the u k second the long run income elasticity of nuclear energy is larger than one indicating that nuclear energy is a luxury good third the results of the granger causality test find evidence of unidirectional causality running from real income to nuclear energy consumption in japan a bidirectional relationship appears in canada germany and the u k while no causality exists in france and the u s we also find evidence of causality running from real oil price to nuclear energy consumption except for the u s and causality running from oil consumption to nuclear energy consumption in canada japan and the u k suggesting that changes in price and consumption of oil influence nuclear energy consumption finally the results observe transitory initial impacts of innovations in real income and oil consumption on nuclear energy consumption in the long run the impact of real oil price is relatively larger compared with that of real income on nuclear energy consumption in canada germany japan and the u s

regional differences in the dynamic linkage between co2 emissions sectoral output and economic growth environmental degradation measured by co2 emissions is a significant challenge to sustainable economic development owing to significant differences in the empirical relationship between the economic growth and co2 emissions and policies adopted by different countries to overcome the challenge are not decisive this study aims to generalize our knowledge about the relationship between co2 emissions per capita and economic growth across the world for 1980 2009 periods besides it explores whether the transformation of different economies e g agrarian to industrial and industrial to sophisticated service economy over the past few decades yielded any significant positive impact towards sustainable economic development by reducing the level of co2 emission empirical results suggest that i except for high income countries environmental kuznets curve ekc is a general phenomenon across the world and ii the transformation of different economies towards a service economy has produced more pollution in high income countries and less pollution in low and middle income countries

did established early warning signals predict the 2008 crises abstract over the past 60 years a voluminous literature has painstakingly developed crises theories and their associated early warning signals the hallmark of this literature is the consistency with which selected early warning signals such as the level of reserves and exchange rate appreciations are presumed to predict different types of crises across countries and time the diversity of crises theories that motivate early warning signals presents however a challenge to empirical implementations given that the true model of early warning signals is unknown omitted variable bias contaminates estimates and confidence levels when the uncertainty surrounding a particular theory has been ignored after addressing model uncertainty in early warning signal regressions using an extended version of frankel and saravelos 2012 j int econ 87 216 231 dataset we do not find a single early warning signal that alerts to all dimensions of the 2008 crisis instead distinct sets of early warning signals identify different dimensions of the crisis banking balance of payments exchange rate pressure and recession

financial instability reserves and central bank swap lines in the panic of 2008 in this paper we connect the events of the last twelve months the panic of 2008 as it has been called to the demand for international reserves in previous work we have shown that international reserve demand can be rationalized by a central bank s desire to backstop the broad money supply to avert the possibility of an internal external double drain a bank run combined with capital flight thus simply looking at trade or short term debt as motivations for reserve holdings is insufficient one must also consider the size of the banking system m2 here we show that a country s reserve holdings just before the current crisis relative to their predicted holdings based on these financial motives can significantly predict exchange rate movements of both emerging and advanced countries in 2008 countries with large war chests did not depreciate and some appreciated meanwhile those who held insufficient reserves based on our metric were likely to depreciate current account balances and short term debt levels are not statistically significant predictors of depreciation once reserve levels are taken into account our model s typically high predicted reserve levels provide important context for the unprecedented u s dollar swap lines recently provided to many countries by the federal reserve this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

renewable energy consumption and growth in eurasia this study examines the causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for 13 countries within eurasia over the period 1992 2007 within a multivariate panel data framework the heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals a long run equilibrium relationship exists between real gdp renewable energy consumption real gross fixed capital formation and labor force the results from the error correction models indicate bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in both the short run and long run thus the empirical findings lend support for the feedback hypothesis of the interdependent relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

the causal relationship between renewable electricity generation and gdp growth a study of energy sources abstract this paper examines the causal relationship between economic growth and electricity generation from renewable sources biomass geothermal hydroelectric solar waste and wind across 20 oecd countries over 1990 to 2008 the results from a commonly used panel error correction model find a a bidirectional relationship between aggregate renewable generation and real gdp b biomass hydroelectricity waste and wind energy exhibit a positive long run relationship with gdp c hydroelectricity and waste generation exhibit a short run positive bidirectional relationship with gdp growth and d biomass hydroelectric and waste electricity generation have the largest impact on real gdp in the long run we extend the analysis to consider the possibility of structural breaks and cross sectional dependence accounting for cross sectional dependence we find that in the short run increases in biomass and waste generation negatively affect gdp while aggregate renewable and hydroelectricity increase gdp energy conservation policies will positively impact gdp if the policies cause decreases in biomass or waste energy but increase hydroelectricity and wind energy