does access to external finance improve productivity evidence from a natural experiment abstract we study the relation between access to finance and productivity our contribution to the literature is a clean identification of a causal effect of access to finance on productivity specifically we exploit an exogenous shift in demand for a product to expose how producers adapt their productivity in the presence of varying levels of access to finance we use a triple differences testing approach and find that production increases the most over the sample period in areas with relatively strong access to finance even in comparison with a control group this result is statistically significant and robust to a variety of controls alternative variables and tests the causal effect of access to finance on productivity that we find speaks to the larger role of finance in economic growth

tenure land rights and farmer investment incentives in china the goal of this paper is to understand the nature of the property rights associated with china s land tenure systems and to study the impact of these property rights on agricultural production efficiency the results show that land tenure and associated property rights in rural china affect the production behavior of farmers the most robust finding is that the right to use land for long periods of time encourages the use of land saving investments while the results show that land tenure affects agricultural production decisions the difference between collective and private plots however is small compared to the private plotcommunal productivity gap that existed in the pre reform period 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

china s collectivisation puzzle a new resolution according to total factor productivity trends in chinese agriculture china achieved productivity gains both when collectivising 1954 58 and when decollectivising 1979 84 its agriculture if the productivity gains from decollectivisation were due mainly to eliminating the incentive problems of collective farms how the initial collectivisation could also have been associated with gains in productivity presents a major historical puzzle we suggest as an answer the possibility that agricultural production in china was widely organised on a household basis until 1958 despite the collectivisation of property rights and that the formation of the agricultural producers co operatives reduced the inefficiencies in factor allocation that existed following china s land reform

household level determinants of adoption of improved natural resources management practices among smallholder farmers in western kenya abstract integrated natural resources management inrm of which integrated soil fertility management isfm is a component offers considerable promise for increasing food production in kenya it nonetheless remains unclear whether isfm inrm techniques lend themselves easily to adoption by smallholder farmers using panel data collected in western kenya in 1989 and 2002 this study finds that resource constraints limit many farmers adoption of isfm inrm techniques the size of the farm owned by a household the value of its livestock off farm income family labor supply and the educational attainment and gender of the household head all had a significant positive effect on the likelihood of adoption similar factors were found to be statistically significant in discouraging abandonment of the practices under study there thus seem to exist reinforcing feedback between investments in soil fertility management and household wealth as measured by asset endowments our findings raise important questions as to whether isfm and related techniques are really affordable to poorer smallholder farmers

optimal farm size in an uncertain land market the case of kyrgyz republic this article applies a real options model to the problem of land development making use of the 1998 2001 kyrgyz household budget survey we show that when the hypothesis of decreasing return to scale holds the relation between the threshold value of revenue per hectare and the amount of land cultivated is positive in addition the relation between the threshold and the amount of land owned is positive in the case of continuous supply of land and negative when there is discontinuous supply of land the direct consequence is that in the first case smaller farms will be more willing to rent land and exercise the option where in the second case larger farms will exercise first the results suggest three main conclusions i the combination of uncertainty and irreversibility is an important factor in land development decisions ii farmer behavior is consistent with the continuous profit maximization model and iii farming unit revenue tends to be positively related to farm size once uncertainty is properly accounted for

social networks and technology adoption in northern mozambique despite their potentially strong impact on poverty agricultural innovations are often adopted slowly using a unique household dataset on sunflower adoption in mozambique we analyse whether and how individual adoption decisions depend upon the choices of others in the same social networks since farmers anticipate that they will share information with others we expect farmers to be more likely to adopt when they know many other adopters dynamic considerations however suggest that farmers who know many adopters might strategically delay adoption to free ride on the information gathered by others we present empirical evidence that shows that the relationship between the probability of adoption and the number of known adopters is shaped as an inverse u in line with information sharing the network effect is stronger for farmers who report discussing agriculture with others the data contains information which is needed to ameliorate the identification issues that commonly arise in this context in particular social networks are precisely identified and in addition we can control for village heterogeneity and endogenous group formation

growth and enduring epidemic diseases abstract this paper analyzes the interplay of human capital formation and economic growth when there is premature adult mortality failing adequate insurance arrangements a long wave of such mortality can so undermine human capital formation as to induce an economic collapse in nuclear family structures random matching of partners is superior to assortative mating only if the shock is not too big and initial levels of human capital are not too low full pooling of mortality risks with equal treatment of all children in extended families may fend off a general collapse depending on the initial conditions and the size and duration of the shock to avoid undesirable effects on expectations awareness campaigns should be complemented by policies that credibly promise to reduce future mortality if mortality depends on the general level of human capital indeterminacy can arise in the form of more than one rational expectations path

theories of share tenancy a critical survey for the past 2 decades the problems of agricultural tenancy have attracted a great deal of attention not only from agricultural economists but also from economists in general as a typical example of agencyprincipal contract relations despite the prolific growth of literature both theoretical and empirical there has been little convergence in opinions on tenancy contracts the divergence has been especially great on the understanding of the causes and the effects of sharecropping tenancy much confusion underlying the widely divergent perspectives has stemmed from partial treatments of contractual choice which unduly limit the optimizing behavior of contracting parties and the options of contract forms this essay aims at clarifying the sources of the confusion by reviewing the past literature in light of the more general theory of agency principal relations the agency theory in order to examine the problems of various theoretical models in a unified framework in section ii we first develop the basic framework of a general model of tenancy contract in section iii we clarify in terms of the general model contradictions latent in the traditional marshallian theory which asserts that share tenancy is inefficient because of the disincentive effect of cropsharing on the tenant s work effort in section iv we attempt to show that recent efforts to reconstruct the theory based on the traditional assumption have not yet been quite successful section v draws implications and testable hypotheses from more general theories incorporating the aspects of risk and uncertainty section vi tests allocational and distributional implications of those alternative hypotheses based on the summary of evidence col

do overlapping property rights reduce agricultural investment evidence from uganda the need for land related investment to ensure sustainable land management and increase productivity of land use is widely recognized however there is little rigorous evidence on the effects of property rights for increasing agricultural productivity and contributing toward poverty reduction in africa whether and by how much overlapping property rights reduce investment incentives and the scope for policies to counter such disincentives are thus important policy issues using information on parcels under ownership and usufruct by the same household from a nationally representative survey in uganda the authors find significant disincentives associated with overlapping property rights on short and long term investments the paper combines this result with information on crop productivity to obtain a rough estimate of the magnitudes involved the authors make suggestions on ways to eliminate such inefficiencies

the inverse relationship between size of land holdings and agricultural productivity the important relationship between the size of land holdings and agricultural productivity in developing countries has been debated intensely from early soviet debates to the extensive literature generated by the release of farm management survey fms data in india the question of returns to scale and input productivities primarily for land in traditional agriculture has been confused and clouded by strong positions and ideological predilections bhagawati and chakravarty saini 1969 and bharadwaj provide extensive bibliographies on the theoretical and empirical aspects of this problem in the indian context briefly sen 1964 1966 mazumdar 1963 1965 c h h rao 1966 1970 khusro saini 1971 bhattacharya and saini more or less endorse an inverse relationship between the land size and its productivity a p rao 1963 and rudra and bandhopadhyay do not believe in the existence of an inverse relationship and argue that no systematic relationship can be established between any two variables describing land size and productivity bharadwaj and others dismiss the statistical validity of an inverse relationship but generally accept it as a stylized fact the approach used in these statistical studies is to employ aggregate average or farm level data within a village or among different villages for all crops or a few specific ones various concepts of productivity and input variables are used the actual regressions use linear or log linear functional forms using the pooled fms data for several states in south india this paper makes an attempt to reexamine in a more general way the relationship between the size of land holdings and agricultural productivity this study employs the transcendental logarithmic translog function to formalize the relation between output and an arbitrary number of inputs the translog function is not locally constrained by assumptions of homogeneity or additivity estimates of output elasticity with respect to land size for various values of cooperating inputs will indicate whether the alleged inverse relationship holds in any or all circumstances

on the distributional consequences of epidemics we develop a tractable general theory for the study of the economic and demographic impact of epidemics notably its distributional consequences to this end we build up a three period overlapping generations model where altruistic parents choose optimal health expenditures for their children and themselves the survival probability of adults and children depends on such investments agents can be skilled or unskilled in this paper epidemics are modeled as one period exogenous shocks to the adults survival rates we first show that such epidemics have permanent effects on the size of population and on the level of output however the income distribution is shown to be unaltered in the long run second we show that this distribution may be significantly altered in the medium term in particular the proportion of the unskilled will necessarily increase at that term if orphans are too penalized in the access to education c 2009 elsevier b v all rights reserved

consumption risk farm characteristics and soil conservation adoption among low income farmers in the philippines abstract this paper investigates patterns of soil conservation adoption among low income farmers in the philippines a model is presented that focuses attention on the role of assets and consumption risk in influencing soil conservation adoption decisions results from a reduced form probit model of adoption are reported these econometric findings indicate that patterns of soil conservation adoption reflect relative risk considerations in addition to farm and household characteristics farm size tenure security labor availability and land quality all exhibit a positive association with soil conservation adoption in contrast controlling on these and other household characteristics the probability of adoption falls as consumption risk rises these results underscore a need for greater sensitivity among policymakers to the role of consumption risk in influencing soil conservation decisions in low income settings

land reforms poverty reduction and economic growth evidence from india recognition of the importance of institutions that provide security of property rights and relatively equal access to economic resources to a broad cross section of society has renewed interest in the potential of asset redistribution including land reforms empirical analysis of the impact of such policies is however scant and often contradictory this paper uses panel household data from india together with state level variation in the implementation of land reform to address some of the deficiencies of earlier studies the results suggest that land reform had a significant and positive impact on income growth and accumulation of human and physical capital the paper draws policy implications especially from the fact that the observed impact of land reform seems to have declined over time

economic status and health in childhood the origins of the gradient the well known positive association between health and income in adulthood has antecedents in childhood not only is children s health positively related to household income but the relationship between household income and children s health becomes more pronounced as children age part of the relationship can be explained by the arrival and impact of chronic conditions children from lower income households with chronic conditions have worse health than do those from higher income households the adverse health effects of lower income accumulate over children s lives part of the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status may work through the impact of parents income on children s health

limited liability and the existence of share tenancy abstract the paper considers the problem confronting an absentee landlord who can lease out his land on a fixed rent contract share rent contract or a mixture of the two it is argued that in poor areas it is natural to have each contract underwritten by an implicit limited liability clause which allows a person to forego paying rent under extreme crop failures in the presence of such an implicit clause a certain tension appears between a tenant and a landlord with the former preferring risky projects and the latter preferring safe ones it is shown that in such a case share tenancy turns out to be the dominant system from among the class mentioned above because it minimises the tension between the landlord and the tenant the result is then used to discuss conditions under which share tenancy will tend to wither away

the long run economic costs of aids a model with an application to south africa primarily a disease of young adults acquired immuno deficiency syndrome aids imposes economic costs that could be devastatingly high in the long run by undermining the transmission of human capital the main driver of long run economic growth across generations aids makes it harder for victims children to obtain an education and deprives them of the love nurturing and life skills that parents provide these children will in turn find it difficult to educate their children and so on an overlapping generations model is used to show that an otherwise growing economy could decline to a low level subsistence equilibrium if hit with an aids type increase in premature adult mortality calibrating the model for south africa where the hiv prevalence rate is over 20 percent simulations reveal that the economy could shrink to half its current size in about four generations in the absence of intervention programs to combat the disease and to support needy families could avert such a collapse but they imply a fiscal burden of about 4 percent of gross domestic product gdp

optimal tax subsidy combinations for the flu season this paper uses a dynamic susceptible infected recovered sir epidemic model to identify optimal vaccination policy mixes for the flu season it begins with the solution to the relevant optimal control problem and then gives the derivation of a perfect foresight equilibrium outcome for vaccination behavior in an unregulated market both the optimal and market outcomes are characterized by switching curves in s i state space exact expressions for these are derived the final section discusses taxes and subsidies that can be used to attain the optimal outcome

agrarian structure and agricultural practice typology and application to western sudan a typology of models that explain patterns of variation in farm endowments and farm practices and yields shows that insecurity in renting land financing constraints and the absence of insurance generate patterns of factor use quite different from the famous inverse relationship caused by labor supervision problems one might expect to observe positive relationships between wealth and yields village level data from western sudan confirm that such positive relationships are not a theoretical curiosity wealthy farmers have higher levels of output per hectare because they use more labor per hectare insurance and financing constraints appear to be the crucial market failures

asset pricing under information processing constraints abstract this paper studies the implications of rational inattention ri for asset pricing in a lq pih model we find that ri increases the size of risk adjustment to asset prices and expected excess returns which helps resolve extant asset pricing puzzles

long run consumption risk and asset allocation under recursive utility and rational inattention we study the portfolio decision of a household with limited information processing capacity rational inattention or ri in a setting with recursive utility we find that rational inattention combined with a preference for early resolution of uncertainty could lead to a significant drop in the share of portfolios held in risky assets even when the departure from standard expected utility with rational expectations is small in addition we show that the equilibrium equity premium increases with the degree of inattention because inattentive investors with recursive utility face greater long run risk and thus require higher compensation in equilibrium our results are robust to the presence of correlation between the equity return and the ri induced noise and the presence of non tradable labor income

impacts of prices and transactions costs on input usage in a liberalizing economy evidence from tanzanian coffee growers despite improvements in production incentives agricultural output in africa remained sluggish through the 1990s low use of purchased inputs may be part of the cause of persistently low productivity in african agriculture this article analyzes the roles of relative prices and transactions costs in explaining low use of chemical inputs among tanzanian coffee growers a sample selection model indicates that output prices exert great influence on input purchases and that both fixed and variable transactions costs affect input use decisions travel costs in input and output markets have distinct effects on input usage implying distinct avenues for interventions to promote more intensive use of agricultural inputs

the gift of the dying the tragedy of aids and the welfare of future african generations this paper simulates the impact of the aids epidemic on future living standards in south africa i emphasize two competing effects on the one hand the epidemic is likely to have a detrimental impact on the human capital accumulation of orphaned children on the other hand widespread community infection lowers fertility both directly through a reduction in the willingness to engage in unprotected sexual activity and indirectly by increasing the scarcity of labor and the value of a woman s time i find that even with the most pessimistic assumptions concerning reductions in educational attainment the fertility effect dominates the aids epidemic on net enhances the future per capita consumption possibilities of the south african economy

aids crisis and growth abstract we investigate an olg economy where an aids epidemic influences human capital accumulation and growth through the creation of large numbers of orphans we study how intra family allocations regarding school and work time of children are adjusted in the face of aids within a family and how in turn these adjustments influence accumulation of physical and human capital we compute the aggregate effects of an aids epidemic on human and physical capital accumulation and growth we find that growth effects of an aids epidemic are large some policies such as subsidization of aids medication have relatively small effects

economic interpretations of intergenerational correlations science itself for example see galton s 1869 study of the eminence of relatives or his 1889 analysis of the heights of parents and children but extensive use of economic theory to interpret these correlations is much more recent using basic economic concepts such as supply demand investment incentives missing markets and so on theorists hope to explain how and why status is correlated across generations economic theory might provide a unified treatment of a variety of socioeconomic indicators such as earnings income occupation or wealth or it might predict how taxes subsidies and economic regulation affect intergenerational mobility and the operation of markets however while the subject matter earnings consumption wealth occupa tion is clearly interesting to economists it could nonetheless be the case that beyond basic questions of measurement economic theory has not improved our understanding of intergenerational mobility goldberger 1989 is quite explicit in this contention by emphasizing the distinction between genes and environment and by using statistical theory as its main analytical tool the paper by samuel bowles and herbert gintis in this issue implicitly concurs with goldberger we take this challenge very seriously what characterizes an economic approach to mobility while biologists and bowles and gintis distinguish endowments and investments by their source genetic versus environmental factors one focus of economic theorists is motiva

does supervision matter some hypothesis tests using indian farm level data abstract a model is developed and estimated to test for heterogeneity of family and hired labor in agricultural production and to estimate the impact of employer supervision on the productivity of hired labor plot level data are used from a rice growing village in semi arid tropical india the hypothesis that family and hired labor are homogeneous inputs was rejected results indicate that family member supervision is required to increase hired labor productivity output loss attributable to operating at reduced supervision intensity was greater than 10 on over 40 of the plots

agricultural transformation in africa assessing the evidence in ethiopia summary despite significant efforts africa has struggled to imitate the rapid agricultural growth that took place in asia in the 1960s and 1970s as a rare but important exception ethiopia s agriculture sector recorded remarkable rapid growth during 2004 14 this paper explores this rapid change in the agriculture sector of this important country the second most populous in africa we review the evidence on agricultural growth and decompose the contributions of modern inputs to growth using an adjusted solow decomposition model we also highlight the key pathways ethiopia followed to achieve its agricultural growth we find that land and labor use expanded significantly and total factor productivity grew by about 2 3 per year over the study period moreover modern input use more than doubled explaining some of this growth the expansion in modern input use appears to have been driven by high government expenditures on the agriculture sector including agricultural extension but also by an improved road network higher rural education levels and favorable international and local price incentives

the profits of power land rights and agricultural investment in ghana we examine the impact of ambiguous and contested land rights on investment and productivity in agriculture in akwapim ghana we show that individuals who hold powerful positions in a local political hierarchy have more secure tenure rights and that as a consequence they invest more in land fertility and have substantially higher output the intensity of investments on different plots cultivated by a given individual corresponds to that individual s security of tenure over those specific plots and in turn to the individual s position in the political hierarchy relevant to those specific plots

testing between competing models of sharecropping the marshallian approach assumes a prohibitively high cost of monitoring the sharecropper s activities while the monitoring approach argues that landlords stipulate and effectively monitor sharecroppers activities i present new evidence using detailed data collected from eight indian villages most tenants own some land of their own this provides a controlled environment in studying the impact of contractual arrangements the differences in input and output intensities on owned minus sharecropped land of the same household are found to be sizable and significant suggesting a rejection of the monitoring approach and supporting the notion of the marshallian productive inefficiency of sharecropping

signal extraction and rational inattention i introduction the objective of this paper is to compare two theories of information frictions in the first theory agents observe the state of the world with exogenously imposed noise we refer to this environment as the signal extraction se model 1 the second theory permits agents to design the distribution of noise terms by focusing limited attention on certain variables at the expense of others following sims 2003 we refer to this model as the rational inattention ri model 2 in both models agents respond to changes in the true underlying state slowly because it takes time for them to learn exactly what the new state is the key difference is that the noise distribution under ri is an outcome of optimal choice and thus can adapt to changing circumstances in the economy whereas under se the noise distribution is technologically fixed our goal is to explore this crucial distinction we explore the distinction between se and ri within a linear quadratic gaussian lqg setting we first study a univariate case for which the variance covariance matrix of the noise shocks can be solved in closed form first we note that at least within the lqg framework any variance covariance structure for the noise shocks derived from the ri problem can be exogenously imposed in the se environment so there is a sense in which the two environments are observationally equivalent the next result we find is that if the variance of the noise itself is fixed we can use a policy experiment to distinguish se from ri suppose that the variance of an exogenous shock is scaled up because of a change in policy in the se problem where the distribution of noise is exogenous an increase in the variance of the shock will lead to a different solution for the conditional variance and kalman gain consequently the change in policy will lead to a change in the model s dynamic behavior and the agent s payoffs in contrast in the ri problem if channel capacity is fixed a change in the variance of the exogenous shock will lead to the same change in the conditional variance of the state and the variance of the noise but will not affect the kalman gain that is inattentive agents with fixed capacity will behave as if they face noise shocks whose nature changes systematically as the dynamic properties of the economy change with policy furthermore we show that if we assume that the marginal cost of information is fixed capacity will be elastic with respect to a change in policy consequently the kalman gain in this case will also adjust in response to the policy change the losses of agents due to imperfect information depend on the value of the kalman gain therefore in general se and ri imply different policy recommendations in contrast we also find that in the univariate case if the ratio of the variance of the exogenous shock to that of the noise i e the signal to noise ratio snr is fixed the se and ri problems are observationally equivalent in the sense that they lead to the same dynamics of the model economy when the ratio of the conditional variance to that of the noise in the se problem equals a particular function of the channel capacity in the ri problem our results do not depend on the presence or absence of correlation between fundamental and noise shocks specifically in the presence of the correlation a change in the variance of the exogenous shock does not change the dynamic behavior of the model in the fixed capacity case whereas it changes the model s dynamics in the fixed information processing cost case in which both the variance of noise and the kalman gain are affected by the interactions between the correlation the variance of the fundamental shock and the conditional variance we then move on to study the multivariate case in this case given channel capacity the conditional variance covariance matrix can be obtained by solving a semidefinite programming problem in which the inattentive agent minimizes the expected loss due to information processing constraints

the relation between farm size and farm productivity the role of family labor supervision and credit constraints abstract the paper shows that if the performance of hired farmhands is affected by supervision from family members and if the availability of credit is dependent on the amount of land owned then a systematic positive or negative relationship between per acre yields and farm size will prevail a model with no supervision effects on labor productivity would predict that yields are unaffected by farm size the paper also investigates the relation between land utilization and owned holding size when land rental possibilities are limited results are shown to be compatible with various observed patterns in ldcs

impacts of tenancy arrangements on investment and efficiency evidence from pakistan in this article we use farm level data from the punjab province in pakistan to analyze the impact of three tenancy contracts on investment in soil improving and productivity enhancing measures and farm productivity a multivariate tobit model that accounts for potential substitutability and complementarity of investment options as well as endogeneity of tenure arrangements was employed in the empirical analysis our empirical results indicate that land tenure arrangements influence farmers decisions to invest in soil improving and productivity enhancing measures in particular owner cultivators with secured tenancy arrangements were found to be more likely to invest in soil improving and productivity enhancing measures compared to those on leased contracts we also find that output per hectare was highest on land cultivated by owners and lowest on land under sharecropping tenancy lending support to the marshallian inefficiency hypothesis

land tenure systems and their impacts on agricultural investments and productivity in uganda this article provides an empirical analysis of the impact of different tenure systems mailo customary and public land on agricultural investment and productivity in central uganda a major hypothesis tested is that land investments and practices may have both economic and tenure security implications the results indicate that coffee planting is used by farmers to enhance tenure security while fallowing is practised to a greater extent by farmers on more secure holdings this supports the notion that farmers consider tenure implications when making investments and that different tenure systems do not inhibit the promotion of tree planting investment tenure had no impact on the productivity of crop farming

time related characteristics of tenancy contracts and investment in soil conservation practices we present a dynamic model that shows how different types of land tenancy contracts and their time related characteristics influence farmers decisions to invest in soil improvement and productive inputs using recent household and plot level data from the brong ahafo region in ghana we analyze the impact of land tenancy arrangements contract duration as well as the number of times the contract has been renewed in the past on the intensity of investment in soil conservation measures such as ditches and farmyard manure and productive inputs like chemical fertilizer the empirical findings generally confirm the predictions of the theoretical model and reveal that the intensity of investments on different plots cultivated by a given farmer varies significantly with the type of tenancy arrangement on the plot as well as the time related characteristics of the contract

moral hazard and marshallian inefficiency evidence from tunisia abstract we formalize the link between optimal cost sharing contracts and the production technology in the presence of moral hazard by appealing to several well known results from duality theory building on intuitions from the interlinkage literature we show that optimal contractual structure is determined by the i substitution possibilities that exist between different observable factor inputs as well as ii between these inputs and unobservable effort we endogenize contractual choice using landlord characteristics as instruments exploiting the fact that in our dataset landlords interact with several tenants and vice versa the approach is applied to an unbalanced plot level panel of cost sharing contracts in a tunisian village using a translog representation of the restricted profit function contractual terms are found to be a significant determinant of input use and therefore lead to marshallian inefficiency while the optimality of the underlying contractual structure is rejected

should african rural development strategies depend on smallholder farms an exploration of the inverse productivity hypothesis in africa most development strategies include efforts to improve the productivity of staple crops grown on smallholder farms an underlying premise is that small farms are productive in the african context and that smallholders do not forgo economies of scale a premise supported by the often observed phenomenon that staple cereal yields decline as the scale of production increases this paper explores a research design conundrum that encourages researchers who study the relationship between productivity and scale to use surveys with a narrow geographic reach when policy would be better served with studies based on wide and heterogeneous settings using a model of endogenous technology choice the authors explore the relationship between maize yields and scale using alternative data since rich descriptions of the decision environments that farmers face are needed to identify the applied technologies that generate the data improvements in the location specificity of the data should reduce the likelihood of identification errors and biased estimates however the analysis finds that the inverse productivity hypothesis holds up well across a broad platform of data despite obvious shortcomings with some components it also finds surprising consistency in the estimated scale elasticities

from malthus to modern growth can epidemics explain the three regimes we model demographic and economic long run development in a setting where mortality is endogenous and subject to epidemic shocks the model replicates the full transition from malthusian stagnation to modern growth consistent with the historical facts the economy also passes an intermediate post malthusian phase where growth rates of both population and per capita income increase simultaneously as mortality rates fall and become less volatile the escape from the malthusian trap is the result of a series of mild epidemic shocks making it inevitable at some stage but its timing random calibrations show that it can differ by thousands of generations absent differences in exogenous parameters

modeling farm households price responses in the presence of transaction costs and heterogeneity in labor markets we develop a farm household model to analyze price responses of farm households this model incorporates various types of transaction costs as well as labor heterogeneity nonproportional variable transaction costs or labor heterogeneity imply that production and consumption decisions become nonseparable even when the household buys or sells labor an empirical model is estimated using data from midwest poland the results show that nonproportional variable transaction costs and labor heterogeneity significantly influence household behavior not all price elasticities however change significantly if these are neglected

infectious disease and preventive behavior in an overlapping generations model abstract this paper incorporates prevalence of disease and agent s preventive behavior i e health investment into a small open overlapping generations model and investigates the dynamic behaviors of the competitive equilibrium allocation using the model it is shown that agents prevalence elastic behaviors which are supported from empirical studies can be obtained and that such agents behaviors cause the cyclicity of the spread of disease we also show that although the agents preventive behavior in a competitive equilibrium may be insufficient because of the existence of external effects a one shot medical aid from foreign countries does not necessarily improve the agents welfare in the pareto sense

rural wages labor supply and land reform a theoretical and empirical analysis land reform is one of the most mentioned of the theoretical policy instruments discussed in the development literature yet relatively little attention has been paid to the wage rate consequences of such a program despite the fact that perhaps more than one half of rural families in a developing country receive a substantial proportion of their income from wage earnings in agriculture one reason for this lacuna may be that the determination of wages and family labor supply in the agricultural sector of ldcs has also been somewhat neglected particularly in the context of a heterogeneous labor force 2 the subsistence or institutional wage models of w arthur lewis john fei and gustav ranis and gerald rodgers for instance offer no theory of how rural wage levels or differentials are set and thus provide little guidance on how wage rates would be affected by changes in land ownership patterns more recently pranab bardhan and t n srinivasan david newbery and clive bell and pinhas zusman who formulate general equilibrium market or bargaining models determining endogenously the rental share paid by tenant sharecroppers have assumed that agricultural wage rates are exogenous or determined only by nonagricultural factors all of these models assume that rural labor is homogeneous another reason why the potential wage impact of a land reform program may have received little attention is that models of peasant family behavior such as those of a k sen dipak mazumdar and robert mabro typically embody two restrictive assumptions which would tend to make the equalization of landholdings appear wage augmenting although this implication has never been formally derived these assumptions are that 1 agriculture is dualistic with small farm families facing lower shadow prices of labor leisure than large farm landlords because of impediments to labor mobility and 2 agricultural households are dichotomous small farmers employ family labor and maximize utility while large farms only utilize wage labor and maximize profits data from a 1970 71 allindia survey of over 5 000 households collected by the national council of applied economic research3 indicate however that almost all cultivator households large and small participate actively in the labor market as either buyers or sellers of labor services with almost 88 percent of households cultivating a gross cropped area less than 1 5 acres utilizing some hired labor seventynine percent of these small farm households associate professor yale ujniversity the research embodied in this paper was supported in part by a grant from the ford and rockefeller foundations program in support of social science and legal research on population policy and with funds from the u s agency for international development under order no aid otr 1432 helpful suggestions and comments were provided by james l mccabe mark gersovitz an anonymous referee the managing editor and members of the economic growth center yale university i am also grateful to the members of the research program in development studies princeton university for the use of their facilities research assistance was provided by james devine anne morgan and roberta robson inotable exceptions are r albert berry mark gersovitz and m a rahman all of these authors however employ geometric analyses with differing assumptions leading to wholly different predictions regarding wage effects none consider the heterogeneity of agricultural labor pay attention to questions of stability or attempt to apply their models to data 2lnformation on the differential impact of alternative agricultural policies including land reform on sex or age specific wage rates is not only important in settling income distribution and equity issues but as suggested in an article by the author and robert evenson may have significant implications for population growth and schooling as well 3for a more detailed discussion of these data see the author

debt poverty and resource management in a rural smallholder economy this paper develops a model to capture the key features of poverty credit constraints and resource management faced by poor rural households we assume that due to the existence of asymmetric information and moral hazard the household faces an increasing cost of credit as its debt equity ratio rises a household exploiting a natural resource may fall into a poverty trap but only if it is unable to afford the increasing borrowing costs implied by increasing debt to allow it to avoid such a trap or if it discounts future utility so much that a balanced growth path cannot be financed at any level of long run borrowing in contrast along an optimal balanced growth path the household s asset wealth purchased inputs resource stock and consumption increase at the same constant rate however over the long run there may be carrying capacity limits that prevent the resource from improving further the household may then direct its savings to accumulating financial assets and eventually under certain conditions may become a net creditor with resource exploitation becoming a less and less important source of its income

land distribution and international agricultural productivity the unequal distribution of agricultural land is often cited as a source of inefficiency in agriculture previous cross country studies of agricultural productivity differences though have not considered land inequality this article addresses this issue by using cross country data on inequality in operational holdings of agricultural land from deininger and squire 1998 in an estimation of an agricultural production function the gini coefficient for land holdings is found to have a significant negative relationship with productivity this is consistent with the existence of heterogeneity in productivity by farm size within countries a one standard deviation drop in the gini coefficient implies an increase in productivity of 8 5

aids and economic growth a human capital approach abstract using a model that combines growth and health capital equations this study analyses the impact of hiv aids on economic growth the econometric results indicate that the epidemic s effects have been substantial in africa the marginal impact on income per capita of a 1 increase in hiv prevalence rate is minus 0 59 even in countries with lower hiv prevalence rates the marginal impacts are non trivial hence while the human and social costs of the hiv aids epidemic are major causes for concern these results indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the hiv aids epidemic are important

shadow wages allocative inefficiency and labor supply in smallholder agriculture this article introduces a method for estimating structural labor supply models in the presence of unobservable wages and deviations of households marginal revenue product of self employed labor from their shadow wage this method is therefore robust to a wide range of assumptions about labor allocation decisions in the presence of uncertainty market frictions locational preferences etc we illustrate the method using data from rice producers in cote d ivoire these data like previous studies reveal significant systematic differences between shadow wages and the marginal revenue product of family farm labor we demonstrate how one can exploit systematic deviations in the present case related to household characteristics such as the land labor endowment ratio to control for both unobservable wages and prospective allocative inefficiency in labor allocation in structural household labor supply estimation

behavioural and material determinants of production relations in agriculture in this essay we develop a framework for analysing the major institutions governing the production and exchange of output and the primary factors of production in rural areas the analysis incorporates general considerations of risk and information constraints jointly with the principal material attributes of agriculture and of agricultural production factors the framework is used to analyse barriers to the existence of the major intertemporal and factor markets it is applied specifically to land scarce environments for which it provides an internally consistent explanation for many of the well documented institutional features of such settings in addition the analysis provides new implications for among other phenomena the inter relationships among ownership holdings operational scale family size and factor productivity for the scarcity of animal rental markets and use of animals as collateral for the renting out of land by small landowners and for the existence of plantations for certain crops

measuring the production efficiency of alternative land tenure contracts in a mixed crop livestock system in ethiopia abstract in this paper we test the hypothesis that land held under varying configurations of property rights will be farmed at different levels of production efficiency production data were collected from 477 plots in a fairly productive mixed farming system in the ethiopian highlands interspatial measures of total factor productivity based on the divisia index were used to measure the relative production efficiency of three informal and less secure land contracts rented share cropped and borrowed relative to lands held under formal contract with the ethiopian government although the informally contracted lands are farmed 10 16 less efficiently the analysis indicates that farmers of such lands actually apply inputs more rather than less intensively i e more inputs per unit of land the gap in total factor productivity thus results from the inferior quality of inputs or lack of skills in applying them rather than a lack of incentive to allocate inputs to mixed crop livestock farming for this reason we find no empirical basis to support the hypothesis that land tenure is a constraint to agricultural productivity

food insecurity income inequality and the changing comparative advantage in world agriculture i would like to argue in this article that in the process of economic development in land poor countries in asia agriculture faces three distinctly different problems food insecurity sectoral income inequality and the declining food self sufficiency associated with the declining comparative advantage in agriculture at the high income stage massive imports of food grains to asia if they occur will aggravate the world food shortage which will have significant implications for the poverty incidence in the world i argue that in order to avoid such a tragedy asia should expand farm size to reduce labor cost by adopting large scale mechanization sub saharan africa should realize a green revolution in grain production and latin america should further expand its grain production capacity

the inheritance of inequality how level is the intergenerational playing field what are the causal mechanisms that underlie the intergenerational transmission of economic status are these mechanisms amenable to public policies in a way that would make the attainment of economic success more fair these are the questions we will try to answer

factor markets and resource allocation in colonial punjab it is often argued that agricultural factor markets in colonial india were underdeveloped leading to inefficient resource use and slow agricultural development however there is little econometric evidence on these issues this article outlines a model which incorporates the factor market imperfections discussed in the literature and tests the model against data from the punjab there is in the statistical sense evidence of resource misallocation however these effects are too small to be of much economic significance

vintage human capital demographic trends and endogenous growth we study how economic growth is affected by demographics in an overlapping generations model with a realistic survival law individuals optimally chose the dates at which they leave school to enter the labor market and at which they retire endogenous growth arises thanks to the accumulation of generation specific human capital favorable shifts in the survival probabilities always induce longer schooling and later retirement but have an ambiguous effect on growth the relationship between the growth of population and per capita growth is hump shaped increases in longevity can be responsible for a switch from a no growth regime to a sustained growth regime and for a positive relationship between fertility and growth to vanish

the inverse relationship between productivity and farm size a test using regional data from india the farm size productivity debate for india needs little introduction it has occupied a prominent position in the agricultural economics literature since 1962 when sen observed that indian farm management data revealed an inverse relationship between farm size and yields per acre since then no fewer than twenty journal papers have appeared on this subject sen 1975 the objective of this paper is to test two hypotheses that were either not given enough attention or left unresolved in the debate the first is that the inverse relationship is valid for all of indian agriculture it is not merely a phenomenon observed in a few sample villages this means a test of the hypothesis that the small farm sector as a whole is more productive than the large farm sector in indian agriculture the second hypothesis is that the inverse relationship is true only of a traditional agriculture and that it breaks down with technical progress a methodology is developed below which uses cross sectional regional data to test the two hypotheses simultaneously on applying this methodology to indian district level data 272 districts for 1970 71 it is found that the hypothesis of the small farm sector being more productive than the large farm sector cannot be rejected at low levels of agricultural technology but can be rejected at higher levels this suggests that the inverse relationship between yields and farm size although valid for a traditional agriculture cannot be assumed to exist in an agriculture experiencing technical change

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

impacts on rural poverty of land based targeting further results for bangladesh abstract landholding class has been widely advocated as a targeting indicator for fighting rural poverty in south asia and elsewhere supporters have pointed to the correlation between poverty and lack of land and have also claimed that land based targeting raises output the paper tries to assess the impact on rural poverty in bangladesh of a benchmark policy under seemingly ideal conditions generalizing earlier results of ravallion 1989 on improved data poverty is reduced though the maximum gains turn out to be small even allowing for pro poor productivity effects consistent with the farm size productivity relationship in bangladesh the gains are likely to be even smaller under real world incentive and political economy constraints

rural market imperfections and the farm size productivity relationship evidence from pakistan the subject of this article is the relationships between farm size and productivity and between farm size and profitability in the developing countries the recent controversies over the inverse size output relationship are reviewed and a framework is provided that explains the inverse relationship based on plausible assumptions about imperfections in the markets for labor land credit and risk from this framework a set of testable hypotheses are derived the hypotheses are tested on recent farm level panel data from pakistan a strong inverse relationship between farm size and yield is present in the sample even when household fixed effects are used to account for unobserved heterogeneity moreover the suggested market imperfections framework is consistent with the data

is small beautiful farm size productivity and poverty in asian agriculture the debate on the relationship between farm size and productivity has gone through a complete circle in the 1960s it was perceived that small farms were efficient because they can fully use their resources particularly family labor and they can monitor their production activities closely but in the 1970s and 1980s as many asian countries rapidly moved towards industrialization and urbanization small farms were considered a major obstacle in this process