the valuation of american options with stochastic interest rates a generalization of the geske johnson technique the geske johnson approach provides an efficient and intuitively appealing technique for the valuation and hedging of american style contingent claims here we generalize their approach to a stochastic interest rate economy the method is implemented using options exercisable on one of a finite number of dates we illustrate how the value of an american style option increases with interest rate volatility the magnitude of this effect depends on the extent to which the option is in the money the volatilities of the underlying asset and the interest rates as well as the correlation between them

jump diffusion processes and the term structure of interest rates the authors investigate the term structure of interest rates when the underlying state variables and production technologies follow the jump diffusion processes even in some cases where the traditional expectations theory about the term structure is consistent with general equilibrium under diffusion processes the traditional theory is not consistent under jump diffusion processes it is shown that bond prices are strictly higher under jump risks than otherwise and that consumers with logarithmic utility functions will develop hedge portfolios in the presence of jump diffusion a number of continuous time asset pricing models have been derived under stochastic diffusion processes with continuous sample paths see e g black and scholes 2 merton 21 breeden 3 and cox ingersoll and ross 8 however recent empirical studies see e g brown and dybvig 4 feinstone 10 and jarrow and rosenfeld 17 suggest that the underlying processes may follow

urban spatial structure urban structure is increasingly characterized by decentralization dispersion and multiple employment centers much is known empirically about such patterns and about how the interplay between agglomerative and dispersive forces generates spatial structures that are complex and prone to multiple equilibria and dynamic path dependence these forces operate at different spatial scales many entail unpriced interaction and external scale economies deriving from product differentiation and endogenous technical change appear particularly important because these forces interact in complex ways inefficiencies in urban structure are resistant to simple policy interventions

international cooperation behind the veil of uncertainty the case of transboundary acidification the complexities of international environmental problems are only poorly understood hence decision makers have to negotiate about abatement measures even though they do not know the true model of the ecological system and have only a rough idea about the costs and benefits of their action it will be analysed to what extent this kind of model uncertainty where players do not only have incomplete information about the payoff functions of the other players but also about their own payoff function affects the prospects of international cooperation using a simple game theoretic model it is shown how countries can use the veil of uncertainty to hide their distributional interests the arguments are based on a deviation from the common prior assumption which seems particularly questionable in a setting comprising various countries with different cultural and scientific backgrounds finally the model will prove useful to quantitatively and qualitatively illustrate the central role of model uncertainty in the negotiations of the first sulphur protocol signed to combat transboundary acidification

option pricing for a jump diffusion model with general discrete jump size distributions we obtain a closed form solution for pricing european options under a general jump diffusion model that can incorporate arbitrary discrete jump size distributions including nonparametric distributions such as an empirical distribution the flexibility in the jump size distribution allows the model to better capture leptokurtic features found in real world data the model uses a discrete time framework and leads to a pricing formula that is provably convergent to the continuous time price as the discretization is increased the solution is easy to implement with fast convergence properties numerical results illustrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed model and highlight its robustness and flexibility this paper was accepted by noah gans stochastic models and simulation

jump risks and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model the specification of the stochastic process for stock prices is an important assumption underlying most equilibrium and option pricing models in modern finance this is particularly true of the continuous time capital asset pricing models where it is assumed that asset prices follow diffusion processes with continuous sample paths see merton 1973a breeden 1979 grossman and shiller 1982 the extent to which the implications of these models generalize to discontinuous sample paths is an unanswered question in theoretical finance however the answer to this question is of more than just theoretical interest since accumulated empirical evidence appears to be inconsistent with the continuous sample path assumption see rosenberg 1972 oldfield rogalski and jarrow 1977 rosenfeld 1982 one purpose of this paper is to provide some answers to this question we do this by extending merton s 1973a intertemporal asset pricing model in the special case of a constant investment opportunity set to include discontinuous sample paths for asset prices the constant investment opportunity set assumption is imposed because we are interested in obtaining sufficient conditions under which an instantaneous capital asset pricing model capm results the extension of our model to a stochastic opportunity set is discussed briefly in the text this paper investigates an economy where stock prices follow a jump diffusion process the first part of the analysis derives a sufficient condition under which an instantaneous capm will characterize equilibrium expected returns the sufficient condition is that the jump component of a stock s return must be unsystematic and diversifiable in the market portfolio the second part of the paper is an empirical investigation of the satisfaction of this condition the evidence is seen to be inconsistent with the satisfaction of this hypothesis that is the market portfolio appears to contain a jump component

the american put option valued analytically an analytic solution to the american put problem is derived herein the hedge ratio and other derivatives of the solution are presented the formula derived implies an exact duplicating portfolio for the american put consisting of discount bonds and stock sold short the formula is extended to consider put options on stocks paying cash dividends a polynomial expression is developed for evaluating these formulae values and hedge ratios for puts on both dividend and nondividend paying stocks are calculated tabulated and compared with values derived by numerical integration and binomial approximation as with european options evaluating an analytic formula is more efficient than approximating the stock price process or the partial differential equation by binomial or finite difference methods finally applications of this american put solution are discussed

the role of uncertainty and learning for the success of international climate agreements abstract transnational externalities e g transboundary pollution trade contagious diseases and terrorism warrant coordination and cooperation between governments but this proves often difficult one reason for the meager success is the public good character of many of these economic problems encouraging free riding another reason one might suspect is uncertainty surrounding most environmental problems and in particular climate change this provides often an excuse for remaining inactive paradoxically some recent papers have concluded just the opposite the veil of uncertainty can be conducive to the success of international environmental cooperation in this paper we explain why and under which conditions this can be true however we argue that those conditions are the exception rather than the rule most important we suggest a mechanism for those conditions where learning has a negative effect on the success of cooperation which removes this effect or even turns it into a positive effect our results apply beyond the specifics of climate change to similar problems where cooperation generates positive externalities

the accelerated binomial option pricing model this paper describes the application of a convergence acceleration technique to the binomial option pricing model the resulting model termed the accelerated binomial option pricing model also can be viewed as an approximation to the geske johnson model for the value of the american put the new model is accurate and faster than the conventional binomial model it is applicable to a wide range of option pricing problems

option listing and stock returns abstract this article examines the effect of option introductions on the underlying stocks in addition to the price increase and volatility decrease that take place when new options are listed we obtain and explain the following new empirical results i an increase in the value of the market around the listing dates of new options ii an increase in the value of an industry index which excludes the optioned stocks iii the dissipation of the price and volatility effects in recent periods and iv the existence of an announcement effect in one subperiod of our sample and its dissipation in recent periods

price barriers and the dynamics of asset prices in equilibrium a price barrier is a price level at which a large number of investors either buy or sell securities we analyze the dynamics of asset prices in an economy in which price barriers exist our analysis suggests that asset prices and volatility can exhibit jumps when the price barrier is reached interestingly the market s anticipation of future trades can influence prices in the opposite direction from what one might expect for example when multiple barriers exist stock prices can be inflated rather than depressed in the proximity of an anticipated stock sale

on jumps in common stock prices and their impact on call option pricing the black scholes call option pricing model exhibits systematic empirical biases the merton call option pricing model which explicitly admits jumps in the underlying security return process may potentially eliminate these biases we provide statistical evidence consistent with the existence of lognormally distributed jumps in a majority of the daily returns of a sample of nyse listed common stocks however we find no operationally significant differences between the black scholes and merton model prices of the call options written on the sampled common stocks

roughing it up including jump components in the measurement modeling and forecasting of return volatility a rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and forecasting via use of realized variation measures constructed from high frequency returns coupled with simple modeling procedures building on recent theoretical results in barndorff nielsen and shephard 2004a 2005 for related bi power variation measures the present paper provides a practical and robust framework for non parametrically measuring the jump component in asset return volatility in an application to the dm exchange rate the s p500 market index and the 30 year u s treasury bond yield we find that jumps are both highly prevalent and distinctly less persistent than the continuous sample path variation process moreover many jumps appear directly associated with specific macroeconomic news announcements separating jump from non jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model we find that almost all of the predictability in daily weekly and monthly return volatilities comes from the non jump component our results thus set the stage for a number of interesting future econometric developments and important financial applications by separately modeling forecasting and pricing the continuous and jump components of the total return variation process

international evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation abstract using 1970 1985 sectoral data for the oecd we find that inflation in nontradable goods exceeds inflation in tradables we identify a demand shift towards nontradables and faster growth of total factor productivity in the tradable goods sector as the prime causes of the differential inflation in addition disinflation attempts and the exchange rate regime appear to have exerted significant influence on the relative inflation rate

jump diffusion option valuation in discrete time we develop a simple discrete time model to value options when the underlying process follows a jump diffusion process multivariate jumps are superimposed on the binomial model of cox ross and rubinstein 1979 to obtain a model with a limiting jump diffusion process this model incorporates the early exercise feature of american options as well as arbitrary jump distributions it yields an efficient computational procedure that can be implemented in practice as an application of the model we illustrate some characteristics of the early exercise boundary of american options with certain types of jump distributions jump diffusion processes are popular in option valuation models these processes were incorporated by merton 1976 into the theory of option valuation and constitute an important alternative to the lognormal diffusion process assumed in the black and scholes 1973 model in this paper we develop a tractable discrete time model for valuing options with these processes many authors have suggested that incorporating jumps in option valuation models may explain some of the large empirical biases exhibited by the black scholes model 1 however in many cases closed form solutions for valuing options are not available for example this is true when there is a positive probability of early exercise when the jump distribution is neither lognormal nor discrete or when the option is based on the term structure of interest rates see ahn and thompson 1988 and jarrow and madan 1991 in these important cases the model developed in this paper can be used to value options another aim of this paper is to provide a model which relies on only simple mathematics to price options with jump diffusion processes it is hoped that the key economic relationships underlying jump diffusion models are transparent in this model we provide enough details to make the procedure readily accessible

multi stage product development with exploration value enhancing preemptive and innovation options abstract we provide a real options framework for the analysis of product development that incorporates research and exploration actions product attribute value enhancing actions with uncertain outcome as well as preemption and innovation options we derive two stage analytic formulas and propose a general multi period solution using a numerical lattice approach our analysis reveals that exploration actions are more important when the project is out or at the money near zero npv and less important for high project values in a multi stage setting exploration actions are important even for in the money projects when follow on actions exist that can enhance the expected value of the project with path dependency early actions are more valuable since they enhance the impact or reduce the cost of subsequent actions preemptive controls affecting rare event jump frequency and innovations that introduce positive jumps are more valuable for firms with higher frequency of competitive threats involving low volatility

estimating the effects of information surprises and trading on stock returns using a mixed jump diffusion model i present a methodology that uses the mixed jump diffusion model for stock returns to estimate the separate effects of information surprises and strategic trading around corporate events using simulation techniques i show that for events with multiple announcements spread over a long time the estimators derived from the mixed jump diffusion model are more powerful compared to the traditional cumulative abnormal return estimators the new methodology is used to study the separate effects of information surprises and strategic trading associated with blockholdings and subsequent targeted repurchases i find that for more than 93 percent of the firms in our sample the mixed jump diffusion model is statistically superior to the pure diffusion model in describing stock returns more important i find a statistically significant negative effect due to trading while the average effect around announcements is statistically insignificant in contrast the standard cumulative abnormal return is not statistically different from zero article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

correlated equilibrium as an expression of bayesian rationality if it is common knowledge that the players in a game are bayesian utility maximizers who treat uncertainty about other players actions like any other uncertainty then the outcome is necessarily a correlated equilibrium random strategies appear as an expression of each player s uncertainty about what the others will do not as the result of willful randomization use is made of the common prior assumption according to which differences in probability assessments by different individuals are due to the different information that they have where information may be interpreted broadly to include experience upbringing and genetic makeup copyright 1987 by the econometric society

hedging for multi period downside risk in the presence of jump dynamics and conditional heteroskedasticity this study extends the one period zero var value at risk hedge ratio proposed by hung et al 2005 to the multi period case and incorporates the hedging horizon into the objective function under var framework the multi period zero var hedge ratio has several advantages first compared to existing hedge ratios based on downside risk it has an analytical solution and is simple to calculate second compared to the traditional minimum variance mv hedge ratio it considers expected return and remains optimal while the martingale process is invalid thirdly hedgers may elect an adequate hedging horizon and confidence level to reflect their level of risk aversion using the concept of var pondering the occurrence of volatility clustering and price jumps this study utilizes the arji model to compute time varying hedge ratios finally both in sample and out of sample hedging effectiveness between one period hedge ratio and multi period hedge ratio are evaluated for four hedging horizons and various le

optimal filtering of jump diffusions extracting latent states from asset prices this paper provides an optimal filtering methodology in discretely observed continuoustime jump diffusion models although the filtering problem has received little attention it is useful for estimating latent states forecasting volatility and returns computing model diagnostics such as likelihood ratios and parameter estimation our approach combines time discretization schemes with monte carlo methods it is quite general applying in nonlinear and multivariate jump diffusion models and models with nonanalytic observation equations we provide a detailed analysis of the filter s performance and analyze four applications disentangling jumps from stochastic volatility forecasting volatility comparing models via likelihood ratios and filtering using option prices and returns jel c11 c13 c15 c51 c52 g11 g12 g17 this paper develops a filtering approach for learning about unobserved shocks and states from discretely observed prices generated by continuous time jumpdiffusion models the optimal filtering problem which has received little attention is the natural companion to the parameter estimation problem as filters allow researchers to analyze and use their models for practical applications 1 despite its usefulness there is currently no general method for solving the filtering problem in continuous time models

a note on the convergence of binomial pricing and compound option models the binomial pricing model of cox ross and rubinstein 2 and the compound option model of geske 3 are both elegant and self contained frameworks for the valuation of american options and related contingent claims each providing us with a distinctive valuation procedure flexible enough to be adapted to a wide variety of problems for american type options on assets with a prices following a lognormal diffusion process and b a continuous time exercise policy such as put options on individual stocks calls and puts on foreign exchange and calls and puts on futures contracts the binomial pricing model approximates both the stochastic process and the exercise opportunity set the latter by restricting exercise to a discrete set of dates the compound option model on the other hand approximates only the exercise opportunity set however it pays for this with a high price in computational requirements specifically with n exercise dates allowed multivariate normal probabilities of every order up to and including n must be evaluated in their article on the valuation of put options geske and johnson 4 provide an ingenious solution to this problem by applying acceleration techniques common in numerical analysis but new to the finance literature letting t be the time to expiration of the option and p the value of a compound option with exercise permitted at the n uniformly spaced dates t n 2t n t they generate the sequence of compound option values p1 p2 pn polynomial extrapolation is then used to estimate p lim n x oo pn they found this procedure to be very accurate over a limited sample of put options with low values of n though not discussed by geske and johnson the reasons for the effectiveness of acceleration techniques in a compound option model are apparent from a cursory examination an acceleration technique will perform best when the approximating sequence converges uniformly on the true value of the contingent claim and worst when convergence includes complex and unpredictable oscilla

international transmission mechanisms and contagion in housing markets this paper explores international transmission mechanism and its role in contagion effect in the housing markets across six major asian cities the analysis is based on the identification of house price diffusion effects through a global vector autoregressive gvar model estimated using quarterly data for six major asian cities hong kong tokyo seoul singapore taipei and bangkok from 1991q1 to 2011q2 the empirical results indicate that the open economies heavily relying on international trade such as singapore japan tokyo taiwan taipei and thailand bangkok show positive correlations between the economy s openness and house prices which is consistent with the balassa samuelson hypothesis interestingly some region specific conditions also appear to play important roles as determinants of house price movements which may be driven by restrictive housing policies and demand supply imbalances such as singapore and bangkok these results are reasonably robust across several model specifications the findings bear significant implications for formulation of investment strategy and public policies

the crash of ʼ87 was it expected the evidence from options markets transactions prices of s p 500 futures options over 1985 1987 are examined for evidence of expectations prior to october 1987 of an impending stock market crash first it is shown that out of the money puts became unusually expensive during the year preceding the crash second a model is derived for pricing american options on jump diffusion processes with systematic jump risk the jump diffusion parameters implicit in options prices indicate that a crash was expected and that implicit distributions were negatively skewed during october 1986 to august 1987 both approaches indicate no strong crash fears during the 2 months immediately preceding the crash attempts to explain what caused the stock market crashes around the world in october 1987 have suffered from the paucity of major economic developments occurring around that time that could have triggered the crashes shifting expectations regarding monetary policy foreign investors fears of a dollar decline increasing riskiness of assets none of these appeared major enough if present at all to explain the magnitude of the crashes and although portfolio insurance strategies could conceivably magnify the effects of a jump in fundamentals the initiating jump in fundamentals appears to be lacking

small dimension pde for discrete asian options abstract this paper presents an efficient method for pricing discrete asian options in presence of smile and non proportional dividends using an homogeneity property we show how to reduce an n 0 dimensional problem to a one or two dimensional one we examine different numerical specifications of our dimension reduced pde using a crank nicholson method interpolation method grid boundaries time and space steps as well as the extension to the case of non proportional discrete dividends using a jump condition we benchmark our results with quasi monte carlo simulation and a multi dimensional pde

a note on globalization and urban residential rents abstract we present evidence on the impact of international economic openness upon residential real estate consistent with the well known balassa samuelson effect which suggests that increasing openness raises relative prices of non tradable goods and services using a data set for 46 cities in different countries we find that urban rents are positively affected by the openness of the economy and by city size

pricing weather derivatives this article presents a general method for pricing weather derivatives specification tests find that a temperature series for fresno ca follows a mean reverting brownian motion process with discrete jumps and autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors based on this process we define an equilibrium pricing model for cooling degree day weather options comparing option prices estimated with three methods a traditional burn rate approach a black scholes merton approximation and an equilibrium monte carlo simulation reveals significant differences equilibrium prices are preferred on theoretical grounds so are used to demonstrate the usefulness of weather derivatives as risk management tools for california specialty crop growers

the impact of income economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in china evidence from dynamic panel quantile regression the rapid growth of housing prices has attracted the attention of the whole of society in china this article adopts the dynamic panel quantile regression to investigate the impact of income econo

are jumps in stock returns diversifiable evidence and implications for option pricing this paper studies the diversiflability of jumps in stock returns it presents a multivariate time series model of the stochastic process for an index and its component stocks that explicitly admits discrete common jumps maximum likelihood estimation for such a model is developed and applied to the daily major market index and its component stocks for the period 1985 through 1990 the paper finds that poisson distributed jumps observed from both the index and its component stocks constitute nondiversiflable risk implying that the standard assumption in option pricing that these jumps are not priced may be invalid

consuming durable goods when stock markets jump a strategic asset allocation approach in this paper we show the impact of considering jumps in the return process of risky assets when deciding how to invest and consume throughout time agents derive their utilities from consumption over time we consider an agent that invests in the financial market and in durable and perishable consumption goods assuming that there are costs for transacting the durable good we show that an agent who does not consider the possibility of jumps will make suboptimal decisions not only regarding the fraction of wealth invested in the stock market but also with respect to the timing for trading on the durable good furthermore we also show that jumps cause a non obvious asymmetric impact on the thresholds that lead the consumer to trade the durable good even when the jump distribution is symmetric

on jump processes in the foreign exchange and stock markets exchange rates exhibit systematic discontinuities even after allowingfor conditional heteroskedasticity in the diffusion process the results are much more significant in theforeign exchange market than in the stock market which suggests differences in the structure of these markets finally this jump component is shown to explain some of the empirically observed mispricings in the currency options market the objective of this article is to analyze and compare the empirical distribution of returns in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market there are a number of reasons why a better understanding of the stochastic processes driving prices in these markets would be useful many financial models rely heavily on the assumption of a particular stochastic process while relatively little attention is paid to the empirical fit of the postulated distribution as a result models like option pricing models are applied indiscriminately to various markets such as the stock market and the foreign exchange market when the underlying processes may be fundamentally different the foreign exchange market for instance is characterized by active exchange rate man

the intersection of market and credit risk abstract economic theory tells us that market and credit risks are intrinsically related to each other and not separable we describe the two main approaches to pricing credit risky instruments the structural approach and the reduced form approach it is argued that the standard approaches to credit risk management creditmetrics creditrisk and kmv are of limited value when applied to portfolios of interest rate sensitive instruments and in measuring market and credit risk empirically returns on high yield bonds have a higher correlation with equity index returns and a lower correlation with treasury bond index returns than do low yield bonds also macro economic variables appear to influence the aggregate rate of business failures the creditmetrics creditrisk and kmv methodologies cannot reproduce these empirical observations given their constant interest rate assumption however we can incorporate these empirical observations into the reduced form of jarrow and turnbull 1995b drawing the analogy risk 5 63 70 model here default probabilities are correlated due to their dependence on common economic factors default risk and recovery rate uncertainty may not be the sole determinants of the credit spread we show how to incorporate a convenience yield as one of the determinants of the credit spread for credit risk management the time horizon is typically one year or longer this has two important implications since the standard approximations do not apply over a one year horizon first we must use pricing models for risk management some practitioners have taken a different approach than academics in the pricing of credit risky bonds in the event of default a bond holder is legally entitled to accrued interest plus principal we discuss the implications of this fact for pricing second it is necessary to keep track of two probability measures the martingale probability for pricing and the natural probability for value at risk we discuss the benefits of keeping track of these two measures

making cents of tick sizes the effect of the 2016 u s sec tick size pilot on limit order book liquidity abstract we use the 2016 u s sec tick size pilot to examine the effects of an increase in the minimum price variation on limit order book liquidity in nasdaq listed stocks on the nasdaq exchange for treatment stocks with an average pre pilot quoted spread less than 0 05 the tick size increase is binding and leads to a significant decrease in liquidity in the limit order book specifically the implied cost to trade at and away from the best bid and offer prices increases and the limit order book becomes less resilient the amount of time required for a deviation in liquidity to return to its long run mean for treatment stocks with an average pre pilot quoted spread of at least 0 05 the tick size increase is non binding and leads to either a slight decrease or no change in limit order book liquidity

optimal hedged portfolios the case of jump diffusion risks abstract the paper derives rules for optimal hedged portfolios when the foreign spot exchange rate changes follow a mixed jump diffusion process the paper shows that the sign of the third order derivative of the utility function plays a crucial role in differentiating the jump risk from the diffusion risk the result of the paper is compared to earlier ones under a diffusion process for the foreign exchange rate changes the paper also draws some important implications along the line of the issue of the time varying risk premiums in the foreign exchange market jel 431

strategic information acquisition and the mitigation of global warming abstract we consider the strategic role of uncertainty and information acquisition for the mitigation of global warming before the countries decide on their contribution to a mitigation of global warming they may invest in information about the country specific benefit of reductions of the emissions of greenhouse gases we show that information acquisition has a substantial strategic value countries may prefer not to learn their benefit of climate protection even if information acquisition does not involve a direct cost this strategic information choice may further decrease the efficiency of the public good provision

pricing options with extendible maturities analysis and applications many common types of financial contracts incorporate options with extendible maturities this paper derives closed form expressions for options that can be extended by the optionholder and presents a number of applications including the valuation of american options with stochastic dividends junk bonds and shared equity mortgages we also derive closed form expressions for writer extendible options and discuss the writer s economic incentives for extending an out of the money option we apply these results to show that corporate debtholders have a strong incentive to extend the maturity of defaulting debt if there are liquidation costs we model and solve the debtholders optimal extension problem and show that the possibility of an extension can induce shareholders in highly levered firms to accept negative npv projects many common types of financial contracts and contingent claims incorporate options with extendible maturities for example a growing number of firms in many cases firms involved in leveraged buyouts are issuing bonds with maturities that can be extended at the firm s option options on real estate often allow the optionholder to extend the expiration date by paying an additional fixed amount to the option writer corporate warrants frequently give the issuing firm the right to unilaterally extend the life of the warrants a right that is often exercised in general any financial contract that could involve a rescheduling of payments a renegotiation of terms an early call or exercise provision or some similar type of flexibility over the timing of cash flows could be viewed as including an option with an extendible maturity this paper derives valuation expressions for extendible options examines the analytical properties of these prices and presents a wide variety of applications and examples in this analysis we distinguish between options that can be extended by the optionholder and options that are extended by the option writer since they differ fundamentally in their pricing implications focusing on the

on the valuation of american call options on stocks with known dividends both the roll and the geske equations for the valuation of the american call option on a stock with known dividends are incorrectly specified this note presents the corrected valuation formula explains the misspecifications and provides a numerical example

the compound option approach to american options on jump diffusions abstract we derive analytical valuation formulas for compound options when the underlying asset follows a jump diffusion process we then apply these results to value extendible options american call options on stocks that pay discrete dividends and american options on assets that pay continuous proportional dividends numerical results are provided

international macroeconomic policy coordination when policymakers do not agree on the true model the authors relax the assumption of the literature on international coordination that policymakers know the true model t wo countries will still be able to agree on a cooperative policy pack age that each believes will improve the objective function relative t o the nash noncooperative solution however the bargaining solution may move the target variables in the wrong direction these points ar e illustrated with monetary and fiscal multipliers taken from simulat ions of ten leading econometric models out of 1 000 possible combina tions of models that could represent u s beliefs non u s beliefs and the true model monetary coordination improves u s welfare in on ly 546 cases copyright 1988 by american economic association

general equilibrium pricing of options on the market portfolio with discontinuous returns when the price process for a long lived asset is of a mixed jump diffusion type pricing of options on that asset by arbitrage is not possible if trading is allowed only in the underlaying asset and a risk less bond using a general equilibrium framework we derive and analyze option prices when the underlying asset is the market portfolio with discontinuous returns the premium for the risk of jumps and the diffusion risks forms a significant part of the prices of the options in this economy an attempted replication of call and put options by the black scholes type of trading strategies may require substantial infusion of funds when jumps occur we study the cost and risk implications of such dynamic hedging plans article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

option pricing and implicit volatilities abstract this paper demonstrates that black scholes implied volatilities can be used to value options in many situations where the assumptions of the black scholes model are violated including i alternative stock processes ii stochastic interest rates and iii market frictions given its computational simplicity this procedure provides an attractive alternative to the more complex models with a direct estimation procedure

modeling the forms of international cooperation distribution versus information the problems of distribution and information impede international cooperation they arise when actors select how they will cooperate an exploration of the interaction between these problems using a limited information model of cooperation leads to six conclusions first leadership solutions to coordination problems always exist but leadership here is very different from hegemonic provision of public goods second actors can cooperate in the face of anarchy even without a shadow of the future third diffuse reciprocal strategies arise naturally in coordination problems fourth norms and institutions are intertwined within successful cooperation fifth the form of cooperation on an issue varies with the relative importance of distribution and information finally and most important distributional and informational problems interfere with each other arrangements to cooperate can successfully address one but not both of these problems

piercing the veil of uncertainty in transboundary pollution agreements this paper addresses the question of how uncertainty in costs and benefits affects the difficulty of reaching a voluntary agreement among sovereign states a measure of difficulty is constructed related to side payments necessary to make an agreement a pareto improving move using a simple model it is shown that uncertainty actually makes agreement easier