the rise and fall of the washington consensus as a paradigm for developing countries abstract the introduction of the washington consensus involved not simply a swing from state led to market oriented policies but also a shift in the ways in which development problems were framed and in the types of explanation through which policies were justified key changes were the partial globalization of development policy analysis and a shift from historicism to ahistorical performance assessment the main challenge to this approach is a latent southern consensus which is apparent in the convergence between east asian developmentalism and latin american neostructuralism the demise of the washington consensus is inevitable because its methodology and ideology are in contradiction

the imf s role in structural adjustment in the 1980s conditional lending for structural adjustment in developing countries moved the imf beyond its role of macroeconomic crisis management fund supported adjustment programmes have often been flawed by a lack of distributional analysis and by poor sequencing of reforms notably premature financial liberalisation as a result they have caused avoidable hardship in addition the attempt to taper out aid as part of the reform programme leads to avoidable reductions in post stabilisation growth an important role for the fund in poststabilisation environments is to provide credible signals to private investors as macroeconomic crises spread across latin america and africa during the 1980s the imf became much more involved in low income countries whereas following its interventions in developed countries the fund had rapidly withdrawn post crisis in the low income countries its involvement became continuous this was partly because stabilisation often took longer however additionally by the 1980s it was already evident that whereas those poor countries which had adopted market based development strategies were developing those which had adopted inward oriented high regulation strategies were in decline unlike the economic crisis of 1998 the crises of the 1980s were concentrated among the inward orientated hence a reasonable diagnosis was that the crises were not merely manifestations of fiscal imbalance but that many other policies needed reform the task thus went beyond the conventional one of rectifying a crisis to reorienting a development strategy the fund joined with the world bank in an attempt to induce these reforms through sustained conditional lending hence the imf moved beyond its traditional role of short run macroeconomic crisis management fund and bank conditions were linked through cross conditionality but with the fund as the lead agency on many areas of policy this gave the fund a critical role in structural adjustment the fund s instrument for concessional lending in low income countries is its extended structural adjustment facility esaf in 1997 the board of the fund commissioned an external review of its esaf programmes in which we participated the report of the evaluation botchwey et al 1998 suggested three lines of criticism of fund adjustment programmes and these form the basis of our analysis in this paper the first is that through flawed design the programmes have sometimes had adverse consequences for the poor either directly through reducing incomes or indirectly through reductions in social service provision our criticism is of the sequence sometimes adopted by fund

the supply response of aggregate agricultural output in jamaica abstract a dominant theme in the development literature is that individual agricultural products responds to price incentives not because of shifts between products but that total agricultural output is not responsive to price the econometric evidence for jamaica shows that this presumption is not valid the paper begins by reviewing the growth experience of the jamaican economy it then analyzes the trends in agricultural production the remainder of the paper provides the econometric estimates of broad agricultural output to price the empirical evidence shows that aggregate agricultural output is responsive to price but it will take time for agricultural production to materialize a summary of the published estimates of the supply response for individual crops is also presented

investigating the effects of store brand introduction on retailer demand and pricing behavior researchers have recently been interested in studying the drivers of store brand success as well as factors that motivate retailers to introduce store brands in this paper we study the effects of the introduction of a store brand into a particular product category specifically we are interested in the effect of store brand introduction on the demand as well as on the supply side on the demand side we investigate the changes in preferences for the national brands and price elasticities in the category on the supply side we study the effects of the new entrant on the interactions between the national brand manufacturers and the retailer introducing the store brand including how these interactions influence the retailer s pricing behavior in doing so we are also able to test whether the observed data are consistent with some of the commonly used assumptions regarding retailer pricing behavior for the demand specification we use a random coefficients logit model that allows for consumer heterogeneity the model parameters are estimated using aggregate data while explicitly accounting for endogeneity in retail prices our empirical results obtained from the oats product category based on store level data from a multistore retail chain indicate that the store brand introduction generates notable changes within the category the store brand introduction coincides with an increase in the retailer s margins for the national brand we find that the preferences for the national brand are relatively unaffected by the introduction of the store brand while consumers are in general more price sensitive in terms of elasticities than they were prior to store brand introduction a statistical test of the differences inmean price elasticities across stores and between the two regimes fails to reject the hypothesis of no change in these elasticities elasticities in specific stores however do increase after the store brand is introduced we also find that there is considerable heterogeneity in the preferences for the store brand on the supply side we test several forms of manufacturer retailer interactions to identify retailer pricing behavior most consistent with the data our results indicate that the data reject several commonly imposed forms of interactions in examining the nature of manufacturer interactions with the retailer we find that the manufacturer of the national brand appears to take a softer stance in its interactions with the retailer subsequent to store brand entry this finding is consistent with academic research and with articles in the popular press which suggest that the store brand enhances the retailer s bargaining ability vis a vis the manufacturers of the national brands we also provide results from a second product category frozen pasta that are largely consistent with those found in the oats category

state business relations and economic growth in sub saharan africa abstract this paper contributes to the literature on the determinants of economic growth in sub saharan africa by examining the effect of effective state business relations on economic growth for a panel of 19 sub saharan african countries for the period 1970 2004 we propose a measure that we argue captures the various dimensions of effective state business relations in sub saharan africa we then estimate standard growth regressions using dynamic panel data methods with this measure along with the more conventionally used measures of institutional quality such as degree of executive constraints the rule of law the degree of corruption and the quality of the bureaucracy our results show that effective state business relations contribute significantly to economic growth countries which have shown improvements in state business relations have witnessed higher economic growth controlling for other determinants of economic growth and independent of other measures of institutional quality

thinking about developmental states in africa during much of the 1980s and 90s a literature emerged suggesting that developmental states were impossible in africa the arguments given ranged from cultural ones about the pervasive nature of clientalism to structural ones on the dependence of african economies or the atypical levels of rent seeking in african economies this paper argues that africa has had states that were developmental in both their aspirations and economic performance it further argues that these experiences need to be examined critically for useful lessons an exercise that has been hindered by an excessive levelling of the african political and economic landscapes

the role of exclusive territories in producers competition reprinted in cartels stephen salant ed the international library of critical writings in economics edward elgar reference collections

demand and supply trends in global agriculture abstract this paper considers the sustainability of the global agricultural system at acceptable levels of economic and environmental costs a future scenario of demand for food and fibre is outlined as the challenge confronting the global agricultural system over the next 40 years the capacity of the system to increase supply in response to this scenario in an economically and environmentally sustainable manner in less developed countries is considered five categories of agricultural resources are investigated knowledge which can be more readily developed than other resources can be substituted for natural resources of each resource it is therefore asked whether knowledge has the capacity to substitute for agricultural resources to increase supply in a sustainable manner the demand scenario will only be met in a sustainable way with improved knowledge which may compensate for insufficient supplies of natural resources as knowledge can only grow through investment in its development a strategy to control and manage the allocation of investments to various sectors is required if a sustainable global agricultural system is to be developed

domestic constraints on export led growth a case study of india abstract in light of the 1991 1993 indian policy reforms this paper assesses the feasibility of a strategy of manufacturing export led growth for india by means of simulation experiments using a nine sector seven income classes computable general equilibrium model developed for india s seventh plan period 1985 1990 the relative merits of this strategy are compared to those of an alternative open development strategy agricultural demand led industrialization under both a fixed and flexible exchange rate regime compared to earlier models the analysis adds disaggregated agricultural supply and income distribution and export demand response the results suggest that industrial growth can be self defeating by raising the relative price of domestic goods and thereby running into an export demand bottleneck hence if a step up in manufacturing exports is to contribute to a non inflationary acceleration of gdp growth it needs to be supplemented by adequate policies aimed at raising agricultural output and income

transferable lessons re examining the institutional prerequisites of east asian economic policies competing theories of east asian economic policy share the assumption that a highly capable coherent economic bureaucracy closely connected to but still independent of the business community has been an essential institutional prerequisite for successful policy formation and implementation in east asia these institutional prerequisites were constructed in a variety of concrete forms with great difficulty and imperfect results as long as the idea of transferable lessons is understood as an invitation to indigenous innovation that takes advantage of the underlying analytical logic of east asian institutions other countries can reap important benefits from east asia s experience

aggregate agricultural supply response in developing countries a survey of selected issues the authors review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response using both economic and econometric reasons they argue that time series estimation typically generates a downward biased estimate of the response to a credible reform even though time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavoiral relations they do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform this is especially true in developing countries where policy reforms involve large changes and have included agricultural price reform industrial trade liberalization financial sector reform and macroeconomic stabilization under those circumstances parameters values obtained under the former policy regime have little relevance in the new regime the authors also argue that investment in public goods should be viewed as complementary to not competitive with price policy they claim that to select the policy with the biggest impact on output makes no sense they provide what they consider to be better criteria for choosing the best from alternative policies

assessing the consequences of a channel switch switching marketing channels is an expensive and sticky decision while a number of theories suggest efficiency and strategic differences between channels there is virtually no work on combining these ideas into an empirically workable methodology to assess the impact of a channel switch in this study we undertake to close this gap with an empirical study of the sports drink market featuring competing producers and heterogeneous channels we estimate demand and cost parameters for a number of alternative models of competitive interaction and use these estimates to study the switching of gatorade from its extant independent wholesaler channel to the direct store delivery dsd channel belonging to pepsi our initial results indicate the following pepsi should switch gatorade to the dsd channel only if i the switch decreases gatorade s manufacturing cost by at least 14 or ii the switch increases the share of profit it can obtain by at least 13 or iii the switch enhances demand by the equivalent of a price cut of 4 96 for a 32 ounces package absent these increases pepsi should not switch our methodology and results speak to both managers contemplating a channel switch and antitrust authorities faced with the task of evaluating the consequences of a change in vertical structure

managing channel profits a channel of distribution consists of different channel members each having his own decision variables however each channel member s decisions do affect the other channel members profits and as a consequence actions a lack of coordination of these decisions can lead to undesirable consequences for example in the simple manufacturer retailer consumer channel uncoordinated and independent channel members decisions over margins result in a higher price paid by the consumer than if those decisions were coordinated in addition the ensuing suboptimal volume leads to lower profits for both the manufacturer and the retailer this paper explores the problems inherent in channel coordination we address the following questions what is the effect of channel coordination what causes a lack of coordination in the channel how difficult is it to achieve channel coordination what mechanisms exist which can achieve channel coordination what are the strengths and weaknesses of these mechanism what is the role of nonprice variables e g manufacturer advertising retailer shelf space in coordination does the lack of coordination affect normative implications from in store experimentation can quantity discounts be a coordination mechanism are some marketing practices actually disguised quantity discounts we review the literature and present a simple formulation illustrating the roots of the coordination problem we then derive the form of the quantity discount schedule that results in optimum channel profits this article was originally published in marketing science volume 2 issue 3 pages 239 272 in 1983

neopatrimonialism and the political economy of economic performance in africa critical reflections during the past two decades neopatrimonialism has become the convenient all purpose and ubiquitous moniker for african governance the school of thought behind this research program which the author refers to as the neopatrimonialism school has produced an impressive literature on africa its analysis informs policymakers and its language permeates media reportage on african states while neopatrimonialism has long been a focus of development studies in recent times it has assumed politically and economically exigent status the school identifies causal links between neopatrimonialism and economic performance and makes predictions drawing from what is referred to as the logic of neopatrimonialism neopatrimonialism is said to account for trade policies hyperinflation economic stagnation low investment in infrastructure urban bias andultimately the lack of economic development in africa this article examines the empirical basis of predictions and policy prescriptions it argues that while descriptive of the social practices of the states and individuals that occupy different positions within african societies the concept of neopatrimonialism has little analytical content and no predictive value with respect to economic policy and performance

price volatility in niger millet markets price volatility of food staples is one of the most complex factors affecting food security recent food price crises have raised academic interest in improved volatility assessment the widely held assumption in econometric volatility models that long run volatility is constant has been recently questioned and partly blamed for these crises a multiplicative mgarch model recently proposed by bauwens et al is used in this article to model price volatility transmission along the niger millet marketing chain results suggest important volatility links between consumer and producer prices as well as noteworthy differences between short and long run price dynamics

futures for farmers hedging participation and the mexican corn scheme administered commodity price schemes in developing countries have proved ineffective in raising farmers incomes and price stabilisation through futures markets is increasingly advocated as the alternative policy objective a potential difficulty is that farmers tend not to hedge extensively even in developed countries where access to futures markets is long established explanations for this reticence are examined here with context provided by the mexican hedging programme which incorporates financial incentives to spur adoption applying representative data for corn to a well known analysis of the hedging decision suggests that limited participation may reflect rational calculation rather than farmer inertia a policy implication is that permanent access subsidies are difficult to justify from the national perspective

relative food prices under structural adjustment preliminary findings from latin america abstract this article examines the effects of changes in policies concerning exchange rates and consumer subsidies on relative prices of staple foods in selected latin american countries in countries where previously high subsidies on imported foods were reduced sharply or eliminated during the 1980s prices of imported tradables have risen relative to prices of domestically produced foods elsewhere the impact of structural adjustment programmes has not been very clear and more in depth research is needed

introduction global economic inclusion and african workers abstractthis introductory article explores the transformative potential of global connections for african workers it challenges recent claims that african workers have become functionally irrelevant to the global economy by examining the shift of global demand for african workers from formal to increasingly informalised labour arrangements mediated by social enterprises labour brokers and graduate entrepreneurs focusing on global employment connections initiated from above and from below we consider why global labour linkages have tended to increase rather than reduce problems of vulnerable and unstable working conditions within african countries and consider the economic and political conditions needed for african workers to capture the gains of inclusion in the global economy

income distribution and growth in east asia it is widely believed that the east asian economies performed exceptionally well not only in generating growth but also in keeping inequality low this study tries to answer the questions raised by the claims of exceptionality of income distribution in east asia central findings are that only japan korea and taiwan have legitimate claims to low inequality that the east asian economies distinguished themselves by their ability to translate high profit shares into high savings and investment rates and that low inequality and high profit shares coexisted primarily due to the unusually even distribution of wealth

manufacturer retailer channel interactions and implications for channel power an empirical investigation of pricing in a local market the issue of power in the marketing channels for consumer products has received considerable attention in both academic and practitioner journals as well as in the popular press our objective in this paper is to provide an empirical method to measure the power of channel members and to understand the reasons demand factors cost factors nature of channel interactions for this power we confine our analysis to pricing power in channels we use methods from the game theory literature in marketing on channel interactions to obtain the theoretical framework for our empirical model this literature provides us a definition of power one that is based on the proportion or percentage of channel profits that accrue to each of the channel members there can be a variety of possible channel interactions between manufacturers and retailers in channels the theoretical literature has examined some of these games for example choi 1991 examines how channel profits for manufacturers and retailer vary if channel interactions are either vertical nash or if they are stackelberg leaderfollower with either the manufacturer or the retailer being the price leader each of these three channel interaction games has different implications for profits made by manufacturers and retailers and consequently for the relative power of the channel members in contrast to the previous literature that has focused largely on the above three channel interaction games our model extends the game theoretic literature by allowing for a continuum of possible channel interactions between manufacturers and a retailer furthermore for a given product market we empirically estimate from the data where the channel interactions lie in this continuum more critically we obtain measures of how channel profits are divided between manufacturers and the retailer in the product market where a higher share of channel profit is associated with higher channel power we then examine how channel power is related to demand conditions facing various brands and cost parameters of various manufacturers in going from game theory based theoretical models of channel interactions to empirical estimation we use the new empirical industrial organization framework bresnahan 1988 as part of this structural modeling framework we build retail level demand functions for the various brands manufacturer and private label in a given product category given these demand functions we obtain optimal pricing rules for manufacturers and the retailer in determining their optimal prices manufacturers and the retailer account for how all the players in the channel choose their optimal prices that is we account for dependencies in decision making across channel members these dependencies are characterized by a set of conduct parameters which are estimated from market data the conduct parameters enable us to identify the nature of channel interactions between manufacturers and the retailer along the continuum mentioned previously in addition to the demand and conduct parameters manufacturers marginal costs are also estimated in the model these marginal cost estimates along with the manufacturer prices and retail prices available in our dataset enable us to compute the division of channel profits among the channel members hence we are able to obtain insights into who has pricing power in the channel in the empirical application of the model we analyze a local market for two product categories refrigerated juice and tuna in both categories there are three major brands the difference between them is that the private label has an insignificant market share in the tuna category our main empirical results show that the usual games examined in the marketing literature do not hold for the given data we also nd that the retailer s market power is very significant in both these product categories and that the estimated demand and cost parameters are consistent with the estimated pattern of conduct between the manufacturers and the retailer given the evidence from the trade press of intense manufacturer competition in these categories as well as the commodity nature of these products the result of retailer power appears intuitive

integration of the sales force an empirical examination this article develops and tests a model of integration of a marketing function personal selling the model derived from transaction cost analysis as developed principally by williamson is formulated as a logistic function which is estimated with data from the electronic components industry as expected integration is associated with increasing levels of asset specificity difficulty of performance evaluation and the combination of these two factors contrary to the transaction cost model neither frequency of transactions nor interaction of specificity and environmental uncertainty is significantly related to integration the transaction cost model improves significantly upon the fit of a simple model relating integration to company size alone these results suggest that for studying transactions of this kind it is fruitful to view the firm as a governance structure

bureaucratic structure and bureaucratic performance in less developed countries abstract we argue that several easily identifiable structural features constitute the key ingredients of effective state bureaucracies and should help to predict ratings of bureaucratic performance competitive salaries internal promotion and career stability and meritocratic recruitment we collect a new dataset on these features for bureaucracies of 35 less developed countries controlling for country income level of education and ethnolinguistic diversity we find that our measure of meritocratic recruitment is a statistically significant determinant of ratings supplied by two of three country risk agencies the importance of competitive salaries and internal promotion and career stability could not be clearly established

competitive price discrimination strategies in a vertical channel using aggregate retail data we explore opportunities for targeted pricing for a retailer that only tracks weekly store level aggregate sales and marketing mix information we show that it is possible using these data to recover essential features of the underlying distribution of consumer willingness to pay knowledge of this distribution may enable the retailer to generate additional profits from targeting by using choice information at the checkout counter in estimating demand we incorporate a supply side model of the distribution channel that captures important features of competitive price setting behavior of firms this latter aspect helps us control for the potential endogeneity generated by unmeasured product characteristics in aggregate data the channel controls for competitive aspects both between manufacturers and between manufacturers and a retailer despite this competition we find that targeted pricing need not generate the prisoner s dilemma in our data this contrasts with the findings of theoretical models due to the flexibility of the empirical model of demand the demand system we estimate captures richer forms of product differentiation both vertical and horizontal as well as a more flexible distribution of consumer heterogeneity

measuring market power in the ready to eat cereal industry the ready to eat cereal industry is characterized by high concentration high price cost margins large advertising to sales ratios and numerous introductions of new products previous researchers have concluded that the ready to eat cereal industry is a classic example of an industry with nearly collusive pricing behavior and intense nonprice competition this paper empirically examines this conclusion in particular i estimate price cost margins but more importantly i am able empirically to separate these margins into three sources i that which is due to product differentiation ii that which is due to multi product firm pricing and iii that due to potential price collusion the results suggest that given the demand for different brands of cereal the first two effects explain most of the observed price cost margins i conclude that prices in the industry are consistent with noncollusive pricing behavior despite the high price cost margins leading firms are able to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products and influence the perceived product quality it is these two factors that lead to high price cost margins

international actors on the domestic scene membership conditionality and socialization by international institutions international relations scholars increasingly debate when and how international institutions influence domestic policy this examination of ethnic politics in four baltic and east european countries during the 1990s shows how european institutions shaped domestic policy and why these institutions sometimes failed comparing traditional rational choice mechanisms such as membership conditionality with more socialization based efforts i argue that conditionality motivated most behavior changes but that socialization based efforts often guided them furthermore using new case studies statistics and counterfactual analysis i find that domestic opposition posed far greater obstacles to socialization based methods than it did to conditionality when used alone socialization based methods rarely changed behavior when they did the domestic opposition was usually low and the effect was only moderate in contrast incentive based methods such as membership conditionality were crucial in changing policy as domestic opposition grew membership conditionality was not only increasingly necessary to change behavior but it was also surprisingly effective many panel and seminar participants have offered useful comments on this work but my thanks goes in particular to michael zurn alexandra gheciu frank schimmelfennig jeff checkel robert keohane steven wilkinson robert putnam milada vachudova and the editors and anonymous reviewers of international organization i also thank princeton university press for allowing me to use material from my book ethnic politics in europe the power of norms and incentives the usual caveats apply this research was funded by a grant from the danish research academy former forskerakademiet and by travel support from the weatherhead center for international affairs at harvard

mergers brand competition and the price of a pint abstract mergers in the uk brewing industry have reduced the number of national brewers from six to four the number of brands in contrast has remained relatively constant we analyze the effects of mergers on brand competition and pricing brand level demand equations are estimated from a panel of draft beers to model brand substitution possibilities we estimate the matrix of cross price elasticities semiparametrically our structural model is used to assess the strength of brand competition along various dimensions and to evaluate the mergers in particular we compute equilibria of pricing games with different numbers of players

structural analysis of manufacturer pricing in the presence of a strategic retailer consumer goods manufacturers usually sell their brands to consumers through common independent retailers theoretical research on such channel structures has analyzed the optimal behavior of channel members under alternative assumptions of manufacturer retailer interaction vertical strategic interaction research in empirical industrial organization has focused on analyzing the competitive interactions between manufacturers horizontal strategic interaction decision support systems have made various assumptions about retailer pricing rules e g constant markup category profit maximization the appropriateness of such assumptions about strategic behavior for any specific market however is an empirical question this paper therefore empirically infers 1 the vertical strategic interaction vsi between manufacturers and retailer 2 the horizontal strategic interaction hsi between manufacturers simultaneously with the vsi and 3 the pricing rule used by a retailer the approach is particularly appealing because it can be used with widely available scanner data where there is no information on wholesale prices researchers usually have no access to wholesale prices even manufacturers who have access to their own wholesale prices usually have limited information on competitors wholesale prices in the absence of wholesale prices we derive formulae for wholesale prices using game theoretic solution techniques under the specific assumptions of vertical and horizontal strategic interaction and retailer pricing rules we then embed the formulae for wholesale prices into the estimation equations while our empirical illustration is using scanner data without wholesale prices the model itself can be applied when wholesale prices are available early research on the inference of hsi among manufacturers in setting wholesale prices using scanner data e g kadiyali et al 1996 1999 made the simplifying assumption that retailers charge a constant margin this assumption enabled them to infer wholesale prices and analyze competitive interactions between manufacturers in this paper we show that this model is econometrically identical to a model that measures retail price coordination across brands hence the inferred cooperation among manufacturers could be exaggerated by the coordinated pricing category management done by the retailer we find empirical support for this argument this highlights the need to properly model and infer vsi simultaneously to accurately estimate the hsi when using data at the retail level functional forms of demand have been evaluated in terms of the fit of the model to sales data but recent theoretical research on channels lee and staelin 1997 tyagi 1999 has shown that the functional form has serious implications for strategic behavior such as retail passthrough while the logit and linear model implies equilibrium passthrough of less than 100 lee and staelin call this vertical strategic substitute vss the multiplicative model implies optimal passthrough of greater than 100 vertical strategic complement vsc because passthrough rates on promotions have been found to be below or above 100 chevalier and curhan 1976 armstrong 1991 we empirically test the appropriateness of the logit vss and the multiplicative vsc functional form for the data we perform our analysis in the yogurt and peanut butter categories for the two biggest stores in a local market we found that the vss implications of the logit fit the data better than the multiplicative model we also find that for both categories the best fitting model is one in which 1 the retailer maximizes category profits 2 the vsi is manufacturer stackelberg and 3 manufacturer pricing hsi is tacitly collusive the fact that the retailer maximizes category profits is consistent with theoretical expectations the inference that the vsi is manufacturer stackelberg reflects the institutional reality of the timing of the game retailers set their retail prices after manufacturers set their wholesale prices note that in the stores and product categories that we analyze the two manufacturers own the dominant brands with combined market shares of about 82 in the yogurt market and 65 in the peanut butter market the result is also consistent with a balance of power argument in the literature the finding that manufacturer pricing is tacitly collusive is consistent with the argument that firms involved in long term competition in concentrated markets can achieve tacit collusion managers use decision support systems for promotion planning that routinely make assumptions about vsi hsi and the functional form the results from our analysis are of substantive import in judging the appropriateness of assumptions made in such decision support systems

upping the ante for political economy analysis of the international financial institutions public choice analysis has clearly demonstrated the need to consider the roles of rent seeking and bureaucratic self interest in influencing the international economic policies of national governments and the behaviour of international organisations we have reached a stage however where more attention needs to be paid to the nature of bureaucratic incentives and the degree of discretion that bureaucracies have under different circumstances it is suggested that the incentives for budget maximisation are likely to vary substantially from one institution to another specifically such incentives seem likely to be much stronger for the world bank than fot the imf the evidence presented by rolanf vaubel for budget maximisation by the imf is critically examined and it is argued that much of this evidence is equally constant with other hypotheses thus there is a need for more research on the political economy of the international financial institutions

an industry equilibrium analysis of downstream vertical integration this paper investigates the effect of product substitutability on nash equilibrium distribution structures in a duopoly where each manufacturer distributes its goods through a single exclusive retailer which may be either a franchised outlet or a factory store static linear demand and cost functions are assumed and a number of rules about players expectations of competitors behavior are examined it is found that for most specifications product substitutability does influence the equilibrium distribution structure for low degrees of substitutability each manufacturer will distribute its product through a company store for more highly competitive goods manufacturers will be more likely to use a decentralized distribution system this article was originally published in marketing science volume 2 issue 2 pages 161 191 in 1983

the economics of price scissors abstract in the context of a centrally planned developing economy evgeny preobrazhensky suggested the possibility of financing the accumulation process by turning the internal terms of trade against the peasantry without hurting the industrial proletariat which proposition has recently been questioned in a celebrated paper by sah and stiglitz 1984 in the present analysis we first show that consumer rationing is an essential component in preobrazhensky s analysis and that sah and stiglitz model since it relies on market equilibrium cannot be considered as a valid test of preobrazhensky s propositions the conditions under which preobrazhensky s thesis holds are then investigated together with an analysis of rural urban differential pricing policies

the investment profits nexus in east asian industrialization abstract both orthodox and heterodox interpretations of east asian industrialization have concentrated on questions of resource allocation and neglected overall capital accumulation and the role of government in accelerating it this paper argues that corporate profits and other profit related incomes were the main source of investment in the most successful east asian economies government policies played a major role in promoting capital accumulation by creating rents and animating the dynamic interactions between profits and investment this was achieved through a broader set of measures than those usually identified as selective industrial policies

the duality of crony corruption in economic transition toward an integrated framework in order to shed light on the issue of crony corruption in the context of economic transition i focus on the puzzle of china s unique experience of economic transition characterized by the duality forms and effects of crony corruption underlying local corporatism in a dual track i e market and political tracks transition i argue that the duality of local corporatism derives from the duality of crony corruption first the early form of local corporatism as state business public alliance is embedded in informal crony corruption as positive for the purpose of wealth growth in the initial phase of economic transition with public and private interests aligned as compatible second the later form of local corporatism as official manager private collusion is embedded in quasi formal crony corruption as negative for the purpose of wealth transfer in the later phase with public and private interests in conflict as incompatible the duality of crony corruption in the two phases of economic transition is caused by the interplay between formal and informal factors and between economic and political factors my contribution is twofold first i explain china s transition in terms of crony corruption underlying local corporatism second i develop an integrated framework of crony corruption concerning its content process antecedent and consequence

logit demand estimation under competitive pricing behavior an equilibrium framework discrete choice models of demand have typically been estimated assuming that prices are exogenous since unobservable to the researcher product attributes such as coupon availability may impact consumer utility as well as price setting by firms we treat prices as endogenous specifically prices are assumed to be the equilibrium outcomes of nash competition among manufacturers and retailers to empirically validate the assumptions we estimate logit demand systems jointly with equilibrium pricing equations for two product categories using retail scanner data and cost data on factor prices in each category we find statistical evidence of price endogeneity we also find that the estimates of the price response parameter and the brand specific constants are generally biased downward when the endogeneity of prices is ignored our framework provides explicit estimates of the value created by a brand i e the difference between consumers willingness to pay for a brand and its cost of production we develop theoretical propositions about the relationship between value creation and competitive advantage for logit demand systems and use our empirical results to illustrate how firms use alternative value creation strategies to accomplish competitive advantage

empowering rural people for their own development abstract this elmhirst lecture first discusses the features of the institutional environment which allow rural people in low income countries to design plan and implement their own rural development these are divided into two broad groups the institutional environment for rural development environment for the private sector communities and civil society local government and sector institutions and the many factors governing profitability of investment in agriculture while in many poor countries the institutional environment has improved over the last 20 years the most poorly performing countries still have by far the poorest environment for local government in the world within an empowering institutional environment the rate of agricultural and rural development is determined by investments of many different types that in turn depend primarily on the profitability of agriculture the paper discusses the large number of factors which determine profitability few of these are under the direct control of farmers or agricultural sector institutions but depend on governance and investments in other sectors such as trade and transport in many of the poorest countries there has been considerable improvement in macro economic management and sector policies over the past 20 years but progress in international and intra regional trade policies in agricultural trade policies in transport infrastructure and in agricultural research and extension have been limited

credibility and reputation building in the developmental state a model with east asian applications abstract we use a game theoretic model to analyze the role of credibility reputation and investment coordination in a developmental state our model focuses on why a soft state serving narrow social groups so often obtains in less developed countries and under what conditions a hard or developmental state can emerge the model highlights the dilemma that although state and private sector alike may want economic growth both must simultaneously invest to achieve it but the equilibrium outcome analogous to the prisoner s dilemma is investment by neither even when initial conditions are favorable and a state is potentially developmental with the genuine capability to elicit private sector investment this may not materialize and an equilibrium of low or no investment will prevail to avoid this deadlock and foster growth the successful developmental state must demonstrate commitment by promoting its developmental credentials through a process of reputation building a consequent incentive to act tough together with seeming advantages of authoritarianism in implementing the developmental state may help to explain why it is often associated with an authoritarian political system

modeling inter sectoral growth linkages an application to u s agriculture abstract general equilibrium and open economy trade theory are used along with time series data on the u s agricultural sector to provide insights into the structure of agricultural supply factor returns and linkages to the rest of the economy output expansion and factor returns are found to vary depending on relative factor intensities which we refer to as rybczynski and stolper samuelson like effects the effect of the rest of the economy particularly the increase in price of services is found to have relatively large negative impacts on agriculture the short run effects of prices and factor endowments on growth in agricultural supply and factor returns are dominated by the long run effects of technological change

comment managing channel profits comment in a recent paper in this journal jeuland and shugan jeuland a s shugan 1983 managing channel profits marketing sci 2 summer 239 272 proposed a quantity discount schedule as a way of coordinating a channel as they put it on p 253 of their paper a quantity discount schedule which would fix the retailer s and hence the manufacturer s profits to some fixed linear function of total channel profits would lead the channel to maximize profits the purpose of this note is to show that a quantity discount schedule is not necessary for channel coordination

explaining african economic performance africa has had slow growth and a massive exodus of capital in many respects it has been the most capital hostile region we review and interpret the aggregate level and microeconomic literatures to identify the key explanations for this performance there is a reasonable correspondence of the two sets of evidence pointing to four factors as being important these are a lack of openness to international trade a high risk environment a low level of social capital and poor infrastructure these problems are to a substantial extent attributable to government behaviour and the paper includes a review of the political economy literature which addresses that behaviour

vertical relationships between manufacturers and retailers inference with limited data in this paper different models of vertical relationships between manufacturers and retailers in the supermarket industry are compared demand estimates are used to compute price cost margins for retailers and manufacturers under different supply models when wholesale prices are not observed the purpose is to identify the set of margins compatible with the margins obtained from estimates of cost and to select the model most consistent with the data among non nested competing models the models considered are 1 a simple linear pricing model 2 a vertically integrated model and 3 a variety of alternative strategic supply scenarios that allow for collusion non linear pricing and strategic behaviour with respect to private label products using data on yogurt sold in several stores in a large urban area of the u s the results imply that wholesale prices are close to marginal cost and that retailers have pricing power in the vertical chain this is consistent with non linear pricing by the manufacturers or high bargaining power of the retailers

determinants of store level price elasticity using weekly scanner data representing 18 product categories the authors estimated store specific price elasticities for a chain of 83 supermarkets they related these price sensitivities to a com

food crops exports and the short run policy response of agriculture in africa the response of agriculture to changes in relative prices is an important factor in the success of structural adjustment programs in africa in this paper i estimate supply functions for total agricultural output food crops and export crops in 14 african countries for the years 1975 to 1990 food and export crops are substitutes in production in the short run total agricultural output responds negatively to increases in export prices and positively to increases in food prices a plausible explanation is that as farmers shift resources to export crop production food supply falls in the short run while the increase in export supply may take several years to materialize the exchange rate is significant in explaining both food and export crop production and aggregate agricultural supply suggesting that the exchange rate is acting as a proxy for excluded macroeconomic variables or that changes in the exchange rate are not passed immediately through to prices

political parties in business rent seekers developmentalists or both ruling party owned conglomerates parbus are emerging in some post conflict african economies following state capture by ethnic parties we offer an analytical framework buttressed by four country case studies of developmental ethnocracies in africa and asia to identify when parbus dominance can be redistributive wealth seeking and when wealth creating four regime characteristics underpin the prospects for wealth creation over rent seeking legitimation angst organisational capacity ideology and degree of state centralisation three evolutionary paths perhaps stages suggest themselves paragonist that is inclusive and growth friendly parasitic engendering a poverty tyranny trap and mutualist exemplified by a destabilising contest among party state and private interests

an economic theory of vertical restraints vertical restraints imposed by manufacturers on the prices locations and sales of retail firms represent a puzzling departure from the simple price mediated exchange of conventional markets in this article we analyze the theoretical basis for these restraints in a setting where retailers inform consumers and are imperfectly competitive and where a manufacturer has some monopoly power we identify three potential externalities affecting retailers decisions these externalities lead to the failure of simple uniform price contracts to coordinate the incentives of retailers with the objective of maximizing combined manufacturer and retailer profits we identify the packages of vertical restraints that are minimally sufficient under various conditions to neutralize the externalities and to achieve the joint profit maximum

agricultural trade liberalization price changes and environmental effects many analyses of agricultural trade liberalization have been undertaken but few have considered the effects on the environment for the developed countries reducing the degree of protection would result in less intensive production therefore environmental stress would be reduced a reduction of trade barriers in industrial countries would result in higher world prices and in a somewhat lower world price variability assuming initially no policy changes for developing countries the question is how the liberalization would affect the environment higher prices in developing countries increase the level of production by intensifying production particularly in the commercial sector and by an area expansion both result in negative environmental effects these could be partly offset by an increase in hired labor in the commercial sector which might reduce pressure at the frontier and on marginal lands as well as by the income effect these off setting effects may be small however the direction of the overall environmental effects cannot be determined unambiguously without empirical examination at the global level the beneficial economic effects of agricultural trade liberalization probably outweigh the expected negative environmental effects in developing countries but this cannot be unambiguously established without valuation

attracting and retaining investments in uncertain times singapore in south east asia this paper takes a political economy approach in evaluating the state s role in investment promotion using the asian financial crisis as an opportunity to study regulatory mechanisms the paper examines both state society relations as well as relations between singapore and its neighbours indonesia and malaysia the difficult policies which singapore enacted during the crisis namely a wage cut as well as the drive to recruit foreign skilled labour in the midst of a depressed economy cannot be understood except in terms of an institutional context involving agencies interest groups and segments of society and the state s continuing ideological work and specifically within an embedded autonomy position where the state was able to fend off lobbying efforts while at the same time using its position with the unions to push for wage cuts and skilled foreign labour such embedding or nestedness was also apparent in singapore s regional relations the incorporation of the riau islands in indonesia in sub re

international capital markets and interest groups capital market integration has increased the scale and mobility of capital movements within and among nations to unprecedented levels integration is fairly recent frankel concludes from his review of the literature that barriers in the major world financial markets were sufficiently low that by 1989 financial markets could be viewed as being fully integrated the scale and mobility of capital flows among nations has numerous implications to currency values interest rates wealth and through current capital account linkages to relative product and factor prices capital flows that have real economic effects also affect the functioning of policy instruments and how effective they are in remunerating an interest group at the expense if any of others this paper provides insights into the process and linkages by which the integration of capital markets has altered economic policy through interest group pressures on government if economic policy is viewed as the outcome of interest groups seeking through the power of the state that which cannot be provided by the market alone then capital market adjustments that affect the return to policy instruments can also affect the returns to lobbying resources and hence the balance of political influence among the various groups 2 this type of explanation for economic policy has been forwarded under the rubric of models of rent seeking krueger 1974 3 the paper is organized as follows 4 selected historical evidence linking capital markets to pressures for legislation in the united states and other countries is briefly reviewed in some cases capital market adjustments have eased pressures for protection while in other cases adjustments either forced policy change because of a liquidity constraint or made unprofitable the lobbying for sustaining policy in face of these adjustments the discussion in the next section provides deeper insight into capital market lobbying linkages discussion focuses on the results from a simple model of rent seeking where government intervenes in markets and provides sector specific public goods

agricultural pricing and public investment abstract aggregate agricultural supply is price inelastic but responsive to investment in agricultural infrastructure irrigation roads research extension thus the government should tax agriculture and finance infrastructure although unlikely to pay for itself directly it will increase taxable agricultural surplus but by raising rural living standards and therefore the supply price of urban labour it reduces urban tax revenue its marginal social product is therefore overstated when measured at world prices though understated at distorted agricultural prices with scale economies in industry the case for taxing and investing in agriculture is strengthened it may allow the economy to escape stagnation

smuggling and supply response coffee in ethiopia abstract during the 1980s substantial smuggling of coffee has been taking place in ethiopia the recent devaluation has raised hopes that substantial quantities of coffee will flow back to the official channels in this study data on the incentives to supply to the different channels are collated a model of official supplies is formulated which nests an empirical test between the smuggling models by bhagwati and hansen 1973 and by pitt 1981 the econometric results favor the latter and show a small but significant effect of the premium in the black market and a positive total supply response relative to the main competing crop chat the results imply that the increases in export earnings from the devaluation will be quite limited

why kill the golden goose a political economy model of export taxation why do governments tax exports at rates that are ultimately self defeating an answer may lie in the time inconsistent nature of a low tax policy using a dynamic model of export taxation i show that the sustainability of a low tax policy depends on three variables the ratio of sunk costs to total costs how heavily future export revenue is discounted and expected future export earnings using data on taxation leadership duration and profitability i test this theory for 32 countries and six crops from sub saharan africa these three variables are statistically and economically relevant predictors of tax regime

an analysis of short run response of export and domestic agriculture in sub saharan africa abstract short run responses of export and domestic shares of total agricultural output to changes in stocks of domestic savings sav development assistance oda private foreign commercial capital pfx and other variables is investigated a profit function approach is used time series data for 19 sub saharan african countries are pooled into three panels using similarities in changes in economic policy regime statistical evidence suggests that for the panel of countries that were undertaking liberalized economic reforms the slope coefficients of some of the variables in the models have changed significantly between 1970 1980 and 1981 1993 for the 1981 1993 period the impacts of oda pfx and sav on export and domestic shares were different for this panel the effect of increases in agricultural labor was different across the three panels there is also evidence that productivity growth in the export agriculture sub sector is negative in all the groups it is recommended that to halt the decline in export share of agricultural output in the group of countries that have undertaken substantial improvements in economic policy environment efforts must be made to reduce the negative impact of domestic savings and agricultural labor while at the same time working to reduce the bias of development assistance against food security