analyst forecasting errors additional evidence analyst forecasting errors are approximately as large as dreman and berry 1995 documented and an optimistic bias is evident for all years from 1985 through 1996 in contrast to their findings i show that analyst forecasting errors and bias have decreased over time moreover the optimistic bias in quarterly forecasts was absent for sp 2 firms with comparatively large amounts of market capitalization absolute value of earnings forecast and analyst following and 3 firms in certain industries

earnings surprise materiality as measured by stock returns ranked earnings surprise portfolios formed from first call files for 1992 97 are used to assess the annual earnings surprise magnitude for an individual firm sufficient to expect a significant market reaction we find that for an individual firm the maximum probability of a gain from trading on prior knowledge of any surprise magnitude is 622 the lack of probable trading gains is due to the s shaped surprise return relation and the large variance of returns for a given magnitude of surprise in turn we find that the s shape is related empirically to the dispersion of analyst forecasts thus factors underlying dispersion differences are related to the importance or materiality of earnings surprise as measured by stock returns and explain at least part of the s shaped surprise return relation

analysts weighting of private and public information using both a linear regression method and a probability based method we find that on average analysts place larger than efficient weights on i e they overweight their private information when they forecast corporate earnings we also find that analysts overweight more when issuing forecasts more favorable than the consensus and overweight less and may even underweight private information when issuing forecasts less favorable than the consensus further the deviation from efficient weighting increases when the benefits from doing so are high or when the costs of doing so are low these results suggest that analysts incentives play a larger role in misweighting than their behavioral biases copyright 2006 oxford university press

the changing time series properties of earnings cash flows and accruals has financial reporting become more conservative abstract this paper documents changes in the patterns of earnings cash flows and accruals over the last four decades in the absence of a generally accepted definition of conservatism a number of measures of reporting conservatism are identified and examined these measures rely on the accumulation of nonoperating accruals the timeliness of earnings with respect to bad and good news characteristics of the earnings distribution and the market to book ratio the patterns are consistent with an increase in conservative financial reporting over time the findings have implications for accounting standard setting regulation of financial information and financial statement analysis

comparing the post earnings announcement drift for surprises calculated from analyst and time series forecasts post earnings announcement drift is the tendency for a stock s cumulative abnormal returns to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for several weeks following an earnings announcement we show that the drift is significantly larger when defining the earnings surprise using analysts forecasts and actual earnings from i b e s than when using a time series model based on compustat earnings data neither compustat s policy of restating earnings nor the inclusion of special items in reported earnings contribute significantly to the disparity in drift magnitudes rather our results suggest that this disparity is attributable to differences between analyst forecasts and those of time series models or at least to factors correlated with these differences further we document that analyst forecasts lead to return patterns around future earnings announcements that differ from those observed when using time series models suggesting that the two types of surprises may capture somewhat different forms of mispricing

a discussion of assessing the relative informativeness and permanence of pro forma earnings and gaap operating earnings abstract by analyzing a carefully constructed earnings announcements sample that discloses a pro forma earnings number bhattacharya et al j account econom 36 1 3 2003 contribute to recent research documenting increasing differences between earnings as defined by generally accepted accounting principles gaap and alternative earnings definitions followed by capital markets the paper provides interesting descriptive data on pro forma earnings per share relative to both gaap earnings per share and actual earnings per share as tracked by i b e s also the authors conduct tests of the relative informativeness and persistence of these three earnings measures econometric and data limitations inhibit the inferences that can be drawn from some of these tests

earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias abstract we argue that if analysts objective is to provide the most accurate forecast by minimizing the mean absolute forecast error then the optimal forecast is the median instead of the mean earnings forecast bias is observed when the median is different from the mean in a skewed earnings distribution thus part of the observed analyst forecast bias could be a result of analysts efforts to improve forecast accuracy when the earnings distribution is skewed we find that earnings skewness is significantly related to analyst forecast bias we also provide evidence that the market adjusts for part of the skewness induced bias

does past success lead analysts to become overconfident this paper provides evidence that analysts who have predicted earnings more accurately than the median analyst in the previous four quarters tend to be simultaneously less accurate and further from the consensus forecast in their subsequent earnings prediction this phenomenon is economically and statistically meaningful the results are robust to different estimation techniques and different control variables our findings are consistent with an attribution bias that leads analysts who have experienced a short lived success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings

employment with connections negative network effects abstract in less developed countries it is widely observed that employers hire workers through employee referrals in this paper we show an extension of this kind of networks that may decrease applicants payoffs while a diversification of the networks can raise referred applicants payoffs we also discuss the effect of the extension of interlinked contracts on farmers wages

a new measure of earnings forecast uncertainty abstract relying on the well established theoretical result that uncertainty has a common and an idiosyncratic component we propose a new measure of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast errors estimated by a garch model the new measure is based on both common and private information available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts hence it alleviates some of the limitations of other commonly used proxies for forecast uncertainty in the literature using analysts earnings forecasts we find direct evidence of the new measure s superior performance

investor and value line analyst underreaction to information about future earnings the corrective role of non earnings surprise information prior research suggests that financial analysts earnings forecasts and stock prices underreact to earnings news this paper provides evidence that analysts and investors correct this underreaction in response to the next earnings announcement and to other non earnings surprise information available between earnings announcements our evidence also suggests that analysts and investors underreact to information reflected in analysts earnings forecast revisions and that non earnings surprise information helps correct this underreaction as well controlling for corrective non earnings surprise information significantly increases estimates of the degree to which analysts forecasting behavior can explain drifts in returns following both earnings announcements and analysts earnings forecast revisions

discussion of analysts treatment of non recurring items in street earnings and loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts earnings forecasts abstract this article discusses papers by gu and chen analysts treatment of non recurring items in street earnings and by basu and markov loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts earnings forecasts these two papers address issues associated with the rationality or expertise of analysts and both papers interpret their evidence as supporting the hypothesis that analysts do a good job of processing information and forecasting earnings results that contrast with a growing literature that is critical of the incentives and abilities of analysts my article critiques their methods and conclusions and suggests areas for future research

migration livelihood and well being evidence from indian city slums what helps workers from low income households to access urban job market information and whether migrants are able to experience upward mobility at the place of destination are the two pertinent issues in urban development which this paper tries to examine results based on a slum survey in four indian cities highlight the importance of various informal channels through which urban jobs are accessed however these networks reduce the probability of upward mobility as network extension leads to excess supplies of labour relative to demand the issue of upward mobility has also been examined by constructing a well being deprivation index based on the factor analysis of a large number of social economic demographic education and health specific variables although findings are indicative of improvements in the well being of migrant workers over time several of the long duration migrants and natives in the cities still lead a low quality life the paper therefore argues in favour of urban employment

bundled forecasts in empirical accounting research abstract this paper examines bundled forecasts or management earnings forecasts issued concurrently with earnings announcements which have evolved to become the most common type of management forecast we describe the econometric problems associated with measuring bundled forecast news and in particular provide evidence that the measurement error in the traditional calculation of forecast news is material and is systematically associated with variables frequently studied in forecast related research we illustrate an application of conditional expectations to overcome these problems finally we offer guidance and caveats to researchers considering the use of this method in the future

density social networks and job search methods theory and application to egypt we first develop a theoretical model in which individuals are embedded within a network of social relationships we show that conditional on being employed the probability to find a job through social networks relative to other search methods increases and is concave with the size of the network the effects are stronger for the uneducated there is however a critical size of the network above which this probability decreases we then test empirically these theoretical findings for egypt using the 1998 labor market survey the empirical evidence supports the predictions of our theoretical model

unions and workers welfare in chinese firms based on a survey of 1 268 firms in 12 cities this article empirically studies unions effects on worker welfare in china regressions carried out on a rich set of specifications show that unionization is significantly associated with higher hourly wages and larger pension coverage and weakly associated with lower monthly working hours further econometric analysis finds that unions promote individual and collective contracts the effect of collective contracts vanishes when unions are present whereas individual contracts have independent and positive effects in addition unions have effects on workers welfare independent of collective and individual contracts

migration with endogenous moving costs we study a dynamic model of labor migration in which moving costs decrease with the number of migrants already settled in the destination this assumption is supported by sociological studies of migrant networks with endogenous moving costs migration occurs gradually over time once it starts it develops momentum and migratory flows may increase even as wage differentials narrow in addition migration tends to follow geographical channels and low moving cost individuals migrate first these patterns are consistent with historical evidence from the great black migration of 1915 1960 in the united states much of which cannot be reconciled with existing migration models excerpt

loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts earnings forecasts abstract prior research concludes that financial analysts do not process public information efficiently in generating their earnings forecasts the ordinary least squares ols regression based tests used in prior studies assume implicitly that analysts face a quadratic loss function in contrast we argue that analysts likely face a linear loss function and hence try to minimize their absolute forecast errors we conduct and compare rational expectations tests using these two alternative loss functions we reproduce most prior findings of forecast inefficiency with ols regressions but find virtually no evidence of forecast inefficiency with least absolute deviation regressions where we explicitly assume a linear loss function

earnings volatility and earnings predictability abstract survey evidence indicates widely held managerial beliefs that earnings volatility is negatively related to earnings predictability in addition existing research suggests that earnings volatility is determined by economic and accounting factors and both of these factors reduce earnings predictability we find that the consideration of earnings volatility brings substantial improvements in the prediction of both short and long term earnings conditioning on volatility information also allows one to identify systematic errors in analyst forecasts which implies that analysts do not fully understand the implications of earnings volatility for earnings predictability

the relative and complementary performance of analyst and security price based measures of expected earnings abstract this paper evaluates the relative performance of ibes consensus financial analyst forecasts and forecasts based upon the anticipatory behaviour of security prices according to two criteria a the accuracy of earnings growth predictions and b the contemporaneous association between unexpected earnings and security returns during the forecast year results are presented for firms in differing size groups measured here by market capitalization the results indicate that neither forecast source is superior to the other in terms of either criterion there is however significant complementarity of financial analyst and price based forecasts

automated earnings forecasts beat analysts or combine and conquer prior studies attribute analysts forecast superiority over time series forecasting models to their access to a large set of firm industry and macroeconomic information an information advantage which they use to update their forecasts on a daily weekly or monthly basis a timing advantage this study leverages recently developed mixed data sampling midas regression methods to synthesize a broad spectrum of high frequency data to construct forecasts of firm level earnings we compare the accuracy of these forecasts to those of analysts at short horizons of one quarter or less we find that our midas forecasts are more accurate and have forecast errors that are smaller than analysts when forecast dispersion is high and when the firm size is smaller in addition we find that combining our midas forecasts with analysts forecasts systematically outperforms analysts alone which indicates that our midas models provide information orthogonal to analysts our results provide preliminary support for th

learning and incentive a study on analyst response to pension underfunding abstract there is a long standing debate on whether sell side analysts learn from their experience to improve earnings forecast skills this study shows that incentive is an important factor for understanding the learning by doing effect by analysts we examine analysts response to a complex type of information corporate pension underfunding pension underfunding negatively impacts future earnings and analysts on average underreact to such information in their earnings forecasts more importantly when there is a strong incentive for analysts to deliver accurate forecasts analyst learning effectively reduces their underreaction to pension underfunding information on the other hand when such an incentive is absent the analyst learning effect is not discernible in the data further evidence suggests that analyst learning and incentive jointly reduce stock market mispricing associated with corporate pension underfunding

what motivates and constrains politicians to privatize the case of china abstract the paper finds that whether local government leaders in china are motivated to privatize their soes depends on if the ownership transfer is expected to stimulate sufficiently high growth of local tax revenues meanwhile for a specific privatization program to succeed it has to overcome the workers compensation constraint and the bank debt servicing constraint

reading the tea leaves model uncertainty robust forecasts and the autocorrelation of analysts forecast errors abstract we put forward a model in which analysts are uncertain about a firm s earnings process faced with the possibility of using a misspecified model analysts issue forecasts that are robust to model misspecification we estimate that this mechanism explains approximately 60 of the autocorrelation in analysts forecast errors the remainder stems from the cross sectional variation in mean forecast errors and in analysts estimation errors of the persistence of earnings growth shocks consistent with our model we find that analysts learn about some features of the earnings process but not others and this learning reduces but does not eliminate the autocorrelation of forecast errors as firms age other potential explanations for the autocorrelation of analyst forecast errors are rejected our model of robust forecasting applies not only to analysts forecasts but also to all model based forecasts

gaap versus the street an empirical assessment of two alternative definitions of earnings managers security analysts investors and the press rely increasingly on modified definitions of gaap net income known by such names as operating and pro forma earnings we document this phenomenon and discuss competing explanations for the recent rise in the use of such modified earnings numbers and implications for the interpretation of related accounting research our results show that over the past 20 years there has been a dramatic increase in the frequency and magnitude of cases where gaap and street earnings differ further there is a very strong bias toward the reporting of a street earnings number that exceeds the gaap earnings number we also show that the market response to the street earnings number has displaced gaap earnings as a primary determinant of stock prices finally through an analysis of earnings releases we show that management has taken a proactive role in defining and emphasizing the street number when communicating to analysts and investors

the rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations abstract this paper finds that firms that meet or beat current analysts earnings expectations mbe enjoy a higher return over the quarter than firms with similar quarterly earnings forecast errors that fail to meet these expectations further such a premium to mbe although somewhat smaller exists in the cases where mbe is likely to have been achieved through earnings or expectations management the findings also indicate that the premium to mbe is a leading indicator of future performance this premium and its predictive ability are only marginally affected by whether the mbe is genuine or the result of earnings or expectations management

opaque financial reports r2 and crash risk abstract we investigate the relation between the transparency of financial statements and the distribution of stock returns using earnings management as a measure of opacity we find that opacity is associated with higher r2s indicating less revelation of firm specific information moreover opaque firms are more prone to stock price crashes consistent with the prediction of the jin and myers 2006 r2 around the world new theory and new tests journal of financial economics 79 257 292 model however these relations seem to have dissipated since the passage of the sarbanes oxley act suggesting that earnings management has decreased or that firms can hide less information in the new regulatory environment

the optimal shape of compensation contracts with earnings management the research question of why earnings management occurs is decomposed into two questions in this article which component of executive compensation generates incentives for earnings management and why is the compensation structured that way in the first place we first use as a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model to show that big bath and earning overstatement can co exist as equilibrium financial reporting strategies when thresholds are used in compensation contracts in order to understand the use of performance thresholds as a prevailing compensation strategy in practice we then derive the optimal compensation contract when the manager is privately informed about economic earnings and his expertise in managing earnings equilibria exist in which the inactive region below a threshold in compensation should be economically significant

do security analysts speak in two tongues why do security analysts issue overly positive recommendations we propose a novel approach to distinguish strategic motives e g generating small investor purchases and pleasing management from nonstrategic motives genuine overoptimism we argue that nonstrategic distorters tend to issue both positive recommendations and optimistic forecasts while strategic distorters speak in two tongues issuing overly positive recommendations but less optimistic forecasts we show that the incidence of strategic distortion is large and systematically related to proxies for incentive misalignment our two tongues metric reveals strategic distortion beyond those indicators and provides a new tool for detecting incentives to distort that are hard to identify otherwise

product market pricing power industry concentration and analysts earnings forecasts this is the first study to establish a link between product market power and analysts earnings forecast accuracy and bias relating two different dimensions of market power to earnings forecastability we document that a a firm s relative pricing power and b its industry concentration are strong positive determinants of analysts earnings forecast accuracy we find that forecasting earnings of higher market power firms is less complex due to their ability to withstand cost shocks as well as greater informational efficiency enjoyed by such firms further forecast optimism increases with weakening product market pricing power and with lower industry concentration the knowledge derived from this study will hopefully improve the accuracy of equity valuation and thereby engender better buy side stock selections and sell side recommendations by analysts our analysis also suggests that brokerage firms compensating analysts based on forecast accuracy need to adjust for the differential in the information complexity of different industries

self selection and analyst coverage this paper examines the relation between analysts information about a stock s future prospects and their decisions to issue investment recommendations and earnings forecasts for that stock and the implications of this relation for the observed distribution of recommendations and earnings forecast errors articles in the financial press have long argued that analysts are reluctant to issue unfavorable investment information perhaps because they fear jeopardizing potential investment banking

federalism and the soft budget constraint the government s incentives to bail out inefficient projects are determined by the trade off between political benefits and economic costs the latter depending on the decentralization of government two effects of federalism are derived first fiscal competition among local governments under factor mobility increases the opportunity costs of bailout and thus serves as a commitment device the competition effect second monetary centralization together with fiscal decentralization induces a conflict of interests and thus may harden budget constraints and reduce inflation the checks and balance effect the authors analysis is used to interpret china s recent experience of transition to a market economy copyright 1998 by american economic association

job contact networks abstract many workers hear about or obtain their jobs through friends and relatives the aim of this paper is twofold first we relate both individual and aggregate labor market outcomes to the network structure of personal contacts second we study strategic network formation to this purpose we develop a model specifying at the individual level both the decision to form contacts with other agents and the process by which information about jobs is obtained and transmitted we show that equilibrium networks always exist and that only moderate levels of network asymmetry can be sustained at equilibrium also we establish a general non monotonicity result on information flow and unemployment with respect to network size in symmetric networks

imperfect information screening and the costs of informal lending a study of a rural credit market in pakistan many governments have perceived the rural moneylender as usurious this article takes a first step toward directly testing the validity of this view in a study of services costs and charges of fourteen informal market moneylenders and their clients in chambar pakistan the article examines whether the high implicit interest rates charged reflect the actual costs of operating in that market estimates of the resource costs incurred by informal lenders for screening pursuing delinquent loans overhead and cost of capital including unrecoverable loans suggest that lenders charges are equal to their average cost of lending but exceed their marginal cost this finding is consistent with the view that the informal credit market is characterized by excess capacity and monopolistic competition in the presence of imperfect information

biased forecasts or biased earnings the role of reported earnings in explaining apparent bias and over underreaction in analysts earnings forecasts the extensive literature that investigates whether analysts earnings forecasts are biased and or inefficient has produced conflicting evidence and no definitive answers to either question this paper shows how two relatively small but statistically influential asymmetries in the tail and the middle of distributions of analysts forecast errors can exaggerate or obscure evidence consistent with analyst bias and inefficiency leading to inconsistent inferences we identify an empirical link between firms recognition of unexpected accruals and the presence of the two asymmetries in distributions of forecast errors that suggests that firm reporting choices play an important role in determining analysts forecast errors r 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

do bright line earnings surprises really affect stock price reactions several influential studies have concluded that earnings surprises just to the right or to the left of a hypothesized bright line produce distinct price reactions compared with surrounding earnings surprises because they convey special meaning in this study we examine whether previous inferences of asymmetric stock price reactions to bright line surprises are observed when empirical tests are designed to be consistent with a rational expectations equilibrium focusing on a small range of earnings surprises around hypothesized bright lines we find no evidence of asymmetric price reactions once investors ex ante expectation of bias in earnings surprises is controlled results from additional tests yield support for the external validity of the theoretical framework underlying our bright line pricing tests our findings suggest simple refinements to traditional bins comparison and regression tests for asymmetric price reactions to bright line earnings surprises which account for necessary conditions imp

do security analysts improve their performance with experience we investigate if sell side security analysts generate more accurate quarterly earnings forecasts and more profitable stock recommendations as their experience following a specific firm increases we measure firmspecific experience as the number of prior quarters for which the analyst has issued an earnings forecast for the firm if analysts improve their forecasting performance with repetition as suggested by the learning by doing lbd model an analyst s earnings forecasts will become more accurate with experience prior empirical work provides mixed evidence on whether analysts exhibit individual forecasting performance differences e g butler and

the superiority and disciplining role of independent analysts abstract we show that although forecasts of independent analysts are less accurate ex post they yield forecast errors that are more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns this suggests that forecasts of independent analysts are superior to those of nonindependent analysts in representing ex ante market expectations we also show that forecasts of nonindependent analysts become more accurate and less biased and produce forecast errors more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns when independent analysts are following the same firms than when they are not this suggests that the presence of independent analysts disciplines the behavior of nonindependent analysts

rationality and analysts forecast bias this paper proposes and tests a quadratic loos utility function for modeling corporate earnings forecasting where financial analysts trade off bias to improve management access and forecast accuracy optimal forecasts with minimum expected error are optimistically biased and exhibit predictable cross sectional variation related to analyst and company characteristics empirical evidence from individual analyst forecasts is consistent with the model s predictions these results suggest that positive and predictable bias may be a rational property of optimal earnings forecasts prior studies using classical notions of unbiasedness may have prematurely dismissed analysts forecasts as being irrational or inaccurate

old boy networks as screening mechanisms this paper studies a fulfilled expectations equilibrium in situations in which intermediaries provide personal opinions on the likelihood of success of personnel projects or investments each referee must recommend some candidates from a group of people about whom he has private information the employer uses the recommendations to choose the workers using his expectations about the quality of the recommended and the nonrecommended applicants although the referees use their information strategically the competition among them produces optimal use of the information in the sense that employers make the same choices in equilibrium as they would if they had the same information as the referees

chronic bias in earnings forecasts whatever the source or explanation of bias in forecasts of company earnings if such bias persists it is potentially discoverable and exploitable by investors this research addresses 1 whether characterizing forecasts as if they were a homogeneous group with respect to bias is accurate or useful and 2 whether a long term record of forecast errors contains information useful in predicting subsequent errors we found that earnings forecasts are heterogeneous with respect to direction and degree of bias we also found evidence of extremes in optimism and pessimism and that extreme errors tend to persist in the same direction which suggests certain potentially profitable trading strategies

firm geographic dispersion and financial analysts forecasts using a text based measure of geographic dispersion that captures the economic ties between a firm and its geographically distributed economic interests this study provides evidence that financial analysts issue less accurate more dispersed and more biased earnings forecasts for geographically dispersed firms we observe the degree to which a firm has an overlapping distribution of economic centers in comparison to industry competitors and suggest that geographically similar firms have lower information gathering costs and thereby more precise earnings forecasts empirical evidence supports this prediction we further find that the geographic dispersion across the u s is less likely to affect forecast precision when a firm has economic activities in states with highly correlated local shocks our findings suggest that the effect of geographic dispersion is more pronounced for soft information environments where information is more difficult to make impersonal by using technological advances consistent with the information asymmetry argument we find that geographically dispersed firms have less comparable and more discretionary managed earnings have less extensive than industry competitors segment information are more likely to restate sale segment information and issue annual and quarterly filings with a delay

confirming management earnings forecasts earnings uncertainty and stock returns in this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts stock prices and analyst expectations confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings this study provides evidence that these voluntary disclosures affect stock prices and the dispersion of analyst expectations specifically we find that the market s reaction to confirming forecasts is significantly positive indicating that benefits accrue to firms that disclose such forecasts in addition although we find no significant change in the mean consensus forecasts a proxy for earnings expectations around the confirming forecast date evidence indicates a significant reduction in the mean and median consensus analyst dispersion a proxy for earnings uncertainty finally we document a positive association between the reduction of dispersion of analysts forecasts and the magnitude of the stock market response overall the evidence suggests that confirming forecasts reduce uncertainty about future earnings and that investors price this reduction of uncertainty

exploring the impact of internal corporate governance on the relation between disclosure quality and earnings management in the uk listed companies this study investigates the impact of internal corporate governance on the relation between disclosure quality and earnings management in the uk listed companies in particular whether governance mechanisms have deterrent effect on earnings management similar to firms disclosure quality unlike prior literature we measure a number of board and audit committee related governance instruments three disclosure quality proxies i e investor relation magazine award forward looking disclosure and analyst forecast accuracy and the modified jones model to test the hypotheses of the study on a matched pair sample data of investor relation magazine award winning and non winning firms our findings in the ols and sensitivity analyses using heckman procedure and 2sls regressions consistently report a significant negative association between earnings management and disclosure quality for all proxies in restraining earnings management in contrast corporate governance variables are mostly insignificantly related to earnings management this provides an emerging trend of the outperformance of disclosure quality over internal governance mechanisms in lessening earnings management these findings warrant due attention of the policy makers investors corporate firms and other stakeholders in shaping a high quality disclosure and governance regime in corporate settings to mitigate managerial manipulations of earnings across the countries in the world

why do eps forecast error and dispersion not vary with scale implications for analyst and managerial behavior we document a counter intuitive finding regarding analyst forecasts of quarterly earnings per share eps magnitudes of deviations from benchmarks individual forecasts versus consensus dispersion and consensus versus actual forecast error do not vary with scale seasonally differenced eps or time series forecast error also exhibits substantial lack of variation with scale but only for firms followed by analysts this lack of variation with scale is not observed for analyst and time series forecasts for a eps for some countries b sales and cash flows for all countries and c stock splits we propose and investigate different explanations for these puzzling regularities that have important implications for practice and research we believe the cause is managerial smoothing of eps designed to reduce across firm variation in eps volatility

attracting attention in a limited attention world exploring the causes and consequences of extreme positive earnings surprises we investigate why extreme positive earnings surprises occur and the consequences of these events we posit that managers know before analysts when extremely good earnings news is developing but can have incentives to allow the earnings news to surprise the market at the earnings announcement in particular managers can use an extreme positive earnings surprise to attract investor attention when they believe their stock is neglected and future performance is expected to be strong analysts who must allocate scarce resources across many firms can also be inattentive and miss signals that suggest good performance is going to be announced using various proxies for extreme positive earnings surprises management expectations for future performance and desire for attention and analyst neglect we find evidence that an extreme positive earnings surprise is a predictable event these findings are incremental to controlling for a firm s information environment earnings volatility and operating leverage finally we show that extreme positive earnings surprises are a successful method for attracting attention with significant increases in the number of institutional owners the number of analysts and trading volume during the subsequent three years this paper was accepted by mary barth accounting

a temporal analysis of earnings surprises profits versus losses i show that median earnings surprise has shifted rightward from small negative miss analyst estimates by a small amount to zero meet analyst estimates exactly to small positive beat analyst estimates by a small amount during the 16 years 1984 to 1999 i show that a rightward temporal shift in median surprise from negative to positive describes earnings but neither profits nor losses median profit surprise shifts within the positive quadrant from zero to one cent per share median loss surprise shifts within the negative quadrant from extreme negative about 33 cents per share to zero i show that the median surprise for profits exceeds that for losses in every year i document significant positive temporal trends in both meet and beat analyst estimates for both profits and losses but i find a greater frequency of profits that either meet or beat analyst estimates in every year i find a significant positive temporal trend in positive profits that are a little bit of good news and a significant negative temporal trend in managers who report losses that are an extreme amount of bad news my results are robust to the four internal validity threats i consider namely temporal changes in 1 analyst forecast accuracy 2 the mix of earnings of one sign preceded by earnings of another sign four quarters ago 3 the timeliness of the most recent analyst forecast and 4 the i b e s definition of actual earnings i find that managers of growth firms are relatively more likely than managers of value firms to report good news profits i show that when they do report positive profit surprises managers of growth firms are more likely to report a little bit of good news in every year

networks in the modern economy mexican migrants in the u s labor market this paper attempts to identify job networks among mexican migrants in the u s labor market the empirical analysis uses data on migration patterns and labor market outcomes based on a sample of individuals belonging to multiple origin communities in mexico over a long period of time each community s network is measured by the proportion of the sampled individuals who are located at the destination the united states in any year we verify that the same individual is more likely to be employed and to hold a higher paying nonagricultural job when his network is exogenously larger by including individual fixed effects in the employment and occupation regressions and by using rainfall in the origin community as an instrument for the size of the network at the destination

inefficiency in analysts earnings forecasts systematic misreaction or systematic optimism a rational analysis of analyst behavior predicts that analysts immediately and without bias incorporate information into their forecasts several studies document analysts tendency to systematically underreact to information underreaction is inconsistent with rationality other studies indicate that analysts systematically overreact to new information or that they are systematically optimistic this study discriminates between these three hypotheses by examining the interaction between the nature of information and the type of reaction by analysts the evidence indicates that analysts underreact to negative information but overreact to positive information these results are consistent with systematic optimism in response to information the literature on financial analysts defines the phrase forecast inefficiency to mean forecasts that fail to accurately incorporate new information on a timely basis and or that are biased these forecasts have also been described as irrational or suboptimal prior studies report inefficiency in analysts forecasts finding that they are upwardly biased and inaccurately reflect available information some studies conclude from this that analysts underreact to information other studies conclude that analysts overreact if markets treat analysts forecasts as both rational and statistically optimal then inefficient forecasts could have important implications for the efficiency of pricing in securities markets in this paper we reexamine the apparent tendency of analysts to misinterpret earnings information the intent of this study is to discriminate between three hypotheses 1 that analysts systematically underreact to new earnings information 2 that analysts systematically overreact to new earnings information and 3 that analysts are systematically optimistic in their reactions for hypotheses 1 and 2 the direction of the misinterpretation i e underor overreaction is independent of the nature of the information received in contrast hypothesis 3 predicts that analysts are optimistic in interpreting

firm characteristics and analyst following abstract this paper examines the major determinants of the number of analysts following a firm a simple model of analyst following is proposed and several firm characteristics are suggested that are likely to influence the extent of a firm s analyst following by either affecting the aggregate demand for or supply of analyst services or both for the firm almost all of these characteristics are found to be strongly significant in affecting the extent of analyst following of firms and the empirical results generally accord well with economic intuition

the impact of social structure on economic outcomes s ocial structure especially in the form of social networks affects economic outcomes for three main reasons first social networks affect the flow and the quality of information much information is subtle nuanced and difficult to verify so actors do not believe impersonal sources and instead rely on people they know second social networks are an important source of reward and punishment since these are often magnified in their impact when coming from others personally known third trust by which i mean the confidence that others will do the right thing despite a clear balance of incentives to the contrary emerges if it does in the context of a social network economists have recently devoted considerable attention to the impact of social structure and networks on the economy for example see the economists chapters in rauch and casella 2001 and the illuminating review essay of this volume by zuckerman 2003 as well as dutta and jackson 2003 and calvoarmengol 2004 however i focus here on sociologists contributions sociologists have developed core principles about the interactions of social structure information ability to punish or reward and trust that frequently recur in their analyses of political economic and other institutions i begin by reviewing some of these principles building on these i then discuss how social structures and social networks can affect economic outcomes like hiring price productivity and innovation

earnings management the shapes of the frequency distributions of earnings metrics are not evidence ipso facto we provide evidence that the shapes particularly around zero of the frequency distributions of earnings metrics examined in the extant earnings management literature are affected by 1 deflation using for example price or market capitalization 2 sample selection criteria that lead to differential inclusion exclusion of observations to the left of zero versus observations to the right of zero implicit in studies focusing on firms followed by i b e s and explicit in studies partitioning on a variable differing between loss observations and profit observations 3 differences between the characteristics of observations to the left of zero and observations to the right of zero such as market pricing and analyst optimism pessimism or 4 a combination of these factors since the shapes of the frequency distributions of earnings metrics at zero are likely due to one of the above effects we conclude that the shapes cannot be used as ipso facto evidence of earnings management

do analysts sacrifice forecast accuracy for informativeness analysts deviate from management guidance to correct for perceived earnings management although the deviations reduce forecast accuracy they improve forecast informativeness bringing the forecasts closer to the unmanaged earnings and reducing accruals mispricing an implicit assumption in the literature is that more accurate analyst forecasts i e estimates that are closer to the reported earnings are better for investors and that analysts objective is to forecast the reported managed earnings accurately our analysis suggests that this is not necessarily the case and that an inaccurate forecast can actually be more informative than an accurate one prior studies on analysts deviations from management guidance focus on analysts incentives to issue estimates that managers can beat these studies implicitly assume that analysts side with management against the interests of their clients our analysis indicates that analysts could also deviate from management guidance to provide useful valuation