the new classical macroeconomics and stabilization policy the new classical macroeconomics ncm is not particularly useful in explaining stark episodes to be successful the new classical approach will have to be developed in a number of areas including coordination problems and political economy issues of stabilization these modifications can in principle be worked into the ncm classical approach but that will change the main thrust so far the message reads markets clear productivity shocks are the dominant source of fluctuations intertemporal substitution in consumption and labor supply are the chief amplifying factors and government policy is substantially irrelevant on these key propositions the evidence fails and the emphasis is misdirected the issue is not whether markets work but rather how they work a concern rightly emphasized by the new keynesian economics

short run impacts of a severance tax change evidence from alaska energy states face a fundamental tradeoff when increasing severance tax rates potential gains in tax revenues versus potential losses in exploration development and production activity despite the significant implications of this tradeoff there is very little empirical evidence on the short run responsiveness of extraction related activities to changes in severance taxes we conduct a comparative case study to evaluate the short term impact of a severance tax increase on oil related activities and development in alaska in 2007 the introduction of alaska s clear and equitable share aces more than tripled the tax liability for much of the oil already under production in alaska we construct a synthetic alaska from a set of u s energy states with the purpose of estimating the counterfactual evolution of oil production exploration and development wells gross state product and employment in the absence of aces overall our results indicate that there is no discernible difference in the outcome variables of interest between alaska and its synthetic control after the implementation of aces suggesting that aces had a minimal effect on alaskan oil related activity and development in the short run

seigniorage banking and the optimal quantity of money abstract this paper discusses seigniorage in an economy with imperfect competition in the banking sector the amount of total seigniorage and its division between the central bank and the banking sector are derived by using the opportunity cost concept of seigniorage the paper analyzes the impact of changes in inflation reserve requirements competition and technology on the division of seigniorage and on the welfare loss and relates the analysis to the concept of the optimal quantity of money

can a liberalization of capital outflows increase net capital inflows abstract facing massive capital inflows that put downward pressure on the real exchange rate some policymakers and analysts have recommended a liberalization of capital outflows empirically however the removal of capital outflow controls has apparently stimulated a net inflow of capital in several experiences such as britain since 1979 italy new zealand and spain in the mid to late 1980s and colombia egypt and mexico in the 1990s numerous measures to liberalize capital outflows in chile during the 1990s have not had a noticeable effect in offseting a surge of net capital inflows how can we explain the apparent paradox that reducing controls on capital outflows can actually increase net capital inflows our theoretical model provides one such explanation a liberalization of capital outflows understood here as a reduction in the minimum capital repatriation period for foreign investment reduces the degree of irreversibility of the decision to invest in a given country this in turn lowers the option value of waiting until uncertainty about a possible change in the rules of the game that affect investment in domestic assets is resolved because in this event foreigners investing at home will be stuck with the low return asset for a shorter period of time thus a reduction in the minimum repatriation period is likely to increase not decrease net capital inflows this result has an important policy implication liberalizing capital outflows may have significant benefits on its own but it may not be the appropriate policy to defend the real exchange rate in the presence of massive capital inflows because it is likely to strengthen those very capital inflows

state and local fiscal policy and growth at the border abstract the paper studies the connection between state and local fiscal policy as measured by the share of government spending and revenues in personal income and the economic activity of counties that share a state border i construct a panel of pairs of us counties that share a state border from the 1970s to 2012 economic activity is measured by county employment wages and business establishments the state and local government spending and revenue shares are aggregates for the states on the respective sides of the border i estimate distributed lag regressions of changes in economic activity on changes in state and local government budgets in two ways the first double difference utilizes change in the difference between border counties this suggests a quite modest relocation of economic activity away from states with fiscal expansion i then look at activity on each side of the border separately and find more substantial and consistently negative effects of fiscal expansion on both sides of the border a border county shares the negative consequences for its neighbor of growth in the size of that neighbor s state and local governments this negative fiscal externality is roughly half the size of the direct negative effects from similar own state spending increases and the sum of the two is substantial economically

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

principles of fiscal and monetary policy abstract this paper describes a complete and internally consistent set of principles for the conduct of a welfare maximizing fiscal and monetary policy issues of time consistency that arise in applying these principles to actual economics are also discussed

the determinants of u s state economic growth a less extreme bounds analysis this study investigates u s state economic growth from 1970 to 1999 i innovate on previous studies by developing a new approach for addressing model uncertainty issues associated with estimating growth equations my approach borrows from the extreme bounds analysis approach of leamer while also addressing concerns raised by granger and uhlig sala i martin and others that not all specifications are equally likely to be true i then apply this approach to identify robust determinants of state economic growth my analysis confirms the importance of productivity characteristics of the labor force and industrial composition of a state s economy i also find that policy variables such as 1 size and structure of government and 2 taxation are robust and economically important determinants of state economic growth jel 040 051 h10 h20 h30 h70 r11 r58 c51

income taxes and the destination of movers to multistate msas abstract we examine how differences in state income tax rates as well as other state and local taxes and public service expenditures influence the choice of state of residence for households federal tax filers moving into multistate metropolitan areas msas using data from the irs on the migration of taxpayers msas that are on borders provide a spatial discontinuity discrete differences in state tax rates within a single labor market these msas allow residents to live in one state and work in another state we find that differences in state income tax rates have a significant impact on the relative rate of migration to the states within an msa however contrary to what would be expected this impact is only significant in msas in which the filing state is based on employment states without reciprocity and not for those states in which the filing state is the state of residence states with reciprocity in msas where states do not have reciprocity agreements a difference of ten percent in tax rates leads to a 4 1 percent difference in the relative rate of incoming taxpayers analogously we find that a ten percent difference in state tax rates in these msas results in a 3 3 percent difference in the rate of tax base inflow agi our results suggest that one reason that differences in state income taxes appear to have more impact in multistate msas without reciprocity is that only relatively large differences in state income tax rates have any impact on migration and these differences are much more pronounced in msas without reciprocity

do journals accept too many papers abstract this paper provides a theoretical model for analyzing the behavior of peer reviewed journals it finds that apart from natural human errors inefficiencies arise purely for reasons of inter journal strategic behavior specifically as a result of competition journals tend to set their quality cut offs excessively low

seigniorage old and new policy issues introduction abstract seigniorage is at the crossroad of many avenues of research a summary survey of older and more recent developments from the static allocative approach in the differential taxation framework to policy analyses of the effects of joining the ems for high deficit countries shows that there may be some disorderly traffic and that definite policy conclusions can hardly be drawn from models which so often neglect relevant markets and variables and in particular the financial sectors and financial assets

credibility of trade policy reform and investment the mexican experience abstract this paper assesses whether the program of trade liberalization undertaken by mexico after 1985 was undermined by lack of credibility it provides an empirical counterpart to some of the credibility issues that have been discussed elsewhere in the literature and proposes a methodology based on the estimation of a probit model to measure the probability of trade policy reversal due to the likelihood of occurrence of a balance of payments crisis it is shown that the probability of trade policy reversal reduced indeed the rate of capital accumulation during the first years of the reform

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

u s state and local fiscal policy and economic activity do we know more now early reviews of the academic literature on the economic effects of state and local taxes and expenditures suggested that not enough was known upon which to base policy the reviews called for better data and improvements in empirical methodology this paper reviews studies conducted since the early literature reviews to assess our current state of knowledge the conclusion of the study is that we know more now but our knowledge is unlikely to ever be sufficient to provide universal policy guidance rather we suggest that more research is needed on specific state and local policies for specific circumstances consistent with the general principles that guide place based policy

is economics useful for public policy economists have always played an important role in major public policy debates even so i believe that the role of economists in these public policy discussions has often been misguided because it has typically relied upon best practices stated in the form of general guidelines or even universal principles however best practices are not best if the specific situation does not conform with the assumptions that underlie the advice so my first conclusion is a cautionary and negative one specific circumstances differ so profoundly across individuals firms markets countries and time that most any attempt to define best practices that apply in all circumstances will lead to profoundly misleading public policy recommendations however even if economics cannot identify the truth it can often identify a truth so my second conclusion is a more positive one economists should continue to develop multiple theories that inform public policies but we should also focus our efforts on identifying and testing the critical assumptions that drive the results of these theories recognizing that the validity of any assumptions will depend intimately on specific circumstances i illustrate these two main conclusions with specific examples from my own work i conclude with some best practices recommendations of my own recognizing the obvious irony of such an effort

the slowdown of the economics publishing process over the last three decades there has been a dramatic slowdown of the publication process at top economics journals a substantial part is due to journals requiring more extensive revisions various explanations are considered democratization of the review process increases in the complexity of papers growth of the profession and cost and benefit arguments changes in the profession are examined using time series data connections between these changes and the slowdown are examined using paper level data there is evidence for some explanations but most of the slowdown remains unexplained changes may reflect evolving social norms

time consistency of fiscal and monetary policy the problem of time inconsistency arises from two different sources first as shown by guillermo a calvo 1978 the re is an incentive for each government to engage in an initial unanti cipated inflation second as discussed by robert e lucas and nancy l stokey 1983 there is an incentive for each government to deviat e from the path of taxes announced by the preceding government in th is paper it is shown that these two sources of time inconsistency ca n be removed by a particular method of debt management involving bot h nominal and indexed government bonds of various maturities copyright 1987 by the econometric society

can fiscal rules constrain the size of government an analysis of the crown jewel of tax and expenditure limitations abstract fiscal rules attempt to alter budget outcomes by constraining policy makers they have been one of the primary responses to the recent string of fiscal crises around the globe we ask if these rules succeed in altering fiscal outcomes by examining what is arguably the most stringent set of fiscal rules in the u s colorado s taxpayer bill of rights tabor as tabor attempts to constrain both taxes and expenditures we develop a novel approach of estimating treatment effects for multiple outcomes simultaneously using the synthetic control methodology of abadie et al 2010 although there will always be a degree of uncertainty over external validity when a policy is enacted in only a single state our results provide no evidence that tabor affected the level of taxes or spending in colorado and are precise enough to rule out large negative effects thus no support is found for the contention that fiscal rules alter budget outcomes instead tabor appears to have been partly evaded by policy makers and voters despite its stringency and partly nothing more than a ratification of the state s preference over the size of its public sector

capital repartriation and the waiting game abstract a stylized fact on post stabilization economies is that getting the fundamentals right even though necessary is not sufficient to ensure a prompt and costless resumption of growth uncertainty whether stabilization can in fact be sustained confers an option value to postponing investment in domestic real assets

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

tax policy and state economic growth the long run and short run of it this paper uses a pooled mean group pmg estimator to evaluate the effects of tax policy on state level growth we find that property and sales tax rates have negative effects on long run income growth while income tax rates have no impact

can state tax policies be used to promote entrepreneurial activity despite a recent flurry of empirical research on the effects of taxes on small business activity state level taxes faced by entrepreneurs have been overlooked by most of the existing literature using a 50 state panel of tax policy information spanning the years 1989 through 2002 our analysis reveals that state tax policies generally do not appear to have quantitatively important effects on entrepreneurial activity when we find statistically important effects we find that higher individual income tax rates the existence of a state level estate inheritance or gift tax and a higher weight on the sales factor in the state corporate income tax apportionment formula all slightly reduce a state s share of the national entrepreneurial stock results also indicate that states with more progressive personal income tax structures and states that have more aggressive corporate income taxes through the imposition of a combined reporting requirement both tend to have slightly higher entrepreneurship rates the composition of state tax portfolios is not found to be a significant determinant of state entrepreneurship

on publication refereeing and working hard we present a model for academia with heterogeneous author types and endogenous effort to evaluate recent changes in the publication process in economics we analyze the implications of these developments on research output lowering the precision of refereeing signals lowers the effort choices of intermediate ability authors but invites more submissions from less able authors increasing the number of journals stimulates less able authors to submit their papers the editor can improve the journal s quality pool of submitted manuscripts by improving the precision of refereeing but not by lowering acceptance standards the submission strategy of an author is informative of his ability

the effect of state and local taxes on economic development a meta analysis economists and policy makers have long questioned the effect of state and local taxes on economic development according to schmenner 55 economists have long argued that taxes had little impact on business location decisions while development practitioners and elected officials ignored this advice and aggressively pursued development by using tax incentives more recent research using improved data and methodologies has begun to show that taxes can make a difference and the emerging consensus among economists now says that taxes do matter this changing view among researchers is perhaps best exemplified in a 1991 study by timothy j bartik 2 bartik examined 84 econometric studies completed since 1979 which assess the impact of state and local taxes on economic growth in the u s he concluded that the long run elasticity of business activity with respect to state and local taxes was between 10 and 60 for studies focusing on intermetropolitan or interstate business economic activity and between 1 0 and 3 0 for intrametropolitan areas however bartik s study did not control for a variety of study characteristics that may have influenced the measured elasticity this study builds upon bartik s analysis by performing a meta analysis of the studies bartik reviewed meta analysis is a method for statistically analyzing results across empirical studies though it has been little used by economists researchers in psychology education and health sciences have used meta analysis extensively this study uses a meta analytic technique suggested by stanley and jarrell 57 to analyze the studies reviewed by bartik the technique yields increased precision for our understanding of the relationship between state and local taxes and economic development the objective of this study is two fold first to derive a more precise estimate of the tax elasticity and second to determine how the inclusion and omission of key variables in the estimated equations influences the elasticity estimates

international capital markets and interest groups capital market integration has increased the scale and mobility of capital movements within and among nations to unprecedented levels integration is fairly recent frankel concludes from his review of the literature that barriers in the major world financial markets were sufficiently low that by 1989 financial markets could be viewed as being fully integrated the scale and mobility of capital flows among nations has numerous implications to currency values interest rates wealth and through current capital account linkages to relative product and factor prices capital flows that have real economic effects also affect the functioning of policy instruments and how effective they are in remunerating an interest group at the expense if any of others this paper provides insights into the process and linkages by which the integration of capital markets has altered economic policy through interest group pressures on government if economic policy is viewed as the outcome of interest groups seeking through the power of the state that which cannot be provided by the market alone then capital market adjustments that affect the return to policy instruments can also affect the returns to lobbying resources and hence the balance of political influence among the various groups 2 this type of explanation for economic policy has been forwarded under the rubric of models of rent seeking krueger 1974 3 the paper is organized as follows 4 selected historical evidence linking capital markets to pressures for legislation in the united states and other countries is briefly reviewed in some cases capital market adjustments have eased pressures for protection while in other cases adjustments either forced policy change because of a liquidity constraint or made unprofitable the lobbying for sustaining policy in face of these adjustments the discussion in the next section provides deeper insight into capital market lobbying linkages discussion focuses on the results from a simple model of rent seeking where government intervenes in markets and provides sector specific public goods

tax avoidance and business location in a state border model abstract previous studies have struggled to demonstrate that higher taxes deter business activity we revisit this issue by estimating the effect of changes over time in cross border differences in state tax conditions on the tendency for new establishments to favor one side of a state border over the other identification is enhanced by taking account of previously overlooked reciprocal agreements that require workers to pay income tax to their state of residence as opposed to their state of employment when reciprocal agreements are in force higher personal income tax rates lure companies from across the border while corporate income tax and sales tax rates have the opposite effect where reciprocal agreements are not in place the results are largely reversed these patterns are amplified in heavily developed locations and differ in anticipated ways by industry and corporate non corporate status of the establishment overall results strengthen the view that state level tax policies do affect the location decisions of entrepreneurs and new business activity but not in a way that lends itself to a one size fits all summary

the effect of state and local taxes on economic growth a time series cross section approach results based on pooled time series and cross section data are presented which indicate that state and local tax increases significantly retard economic growth when the revenue is used to fund transfer payments however when the revenue is used instead to finance improved public services such as education highways and public health and safety the favorable impact on location and production decisions provided by the enhanced services may more than counterbalance the disincentive effects of the associated taxes these findings underscore the importance of considering the incentives provided by a state s expenditures as well as by its taxes i n the past several years a number of states have implemented limitations on taxes or expenditures while others have raised tax rates in response to the revenue shortfalls of the early 1980s although much of the ongoing debate over state fiscal structures revolves around expressed preferences over tax expenditure combinations per se the question of how state and local taxes may affect economic growth is often central to the discussion nonetheless the empirical evidence remains sparse previous studies can be divided into two broad categories assessments of the magnitudes of tax costs and statistical analyses of the relationship between tax rates and growth cost studies have tended to minimize the role of taxes in business location decisions either because state and local taxes are a relatively small component of total costs for most businesses or because interstate tax differences are small relative to other cost differences between states although these results suggest that the role played by taxes is a minor one describing how large the tax disparities may be is not the same as ascertaining their economic effect of the statistical studies many including bloom 1955 thompson and mattila 1959 and carlton 1979 1983 find no relationship between taxes and growth however kleine 1977 grieson 1980 and generally grieson et al 1977 report negative correlations romans and subrahmanyam 1979 find growth to be negatively related to the fraction of revenues devoted to transfer payments and a variable which they claim measures personal tax progressivity but positively related to business taxes with the exception of carlton who estimates models of the birth and size of firms within metropolitan areas and the grieson et al 1977 and grieson 1980 studies which consider taxes in new york city and philadelphia these authors use data from a single cross section of states more recently newman 1983 and plaut and pluta 1983 both use cross sectional data from two time periods the former finding negative effects of corporate tax rates and the latter yielding mixed results in this study we utilize a time series from 1965 through 1979 of cross sections of 48 states exploiting the richness of this data set we are able to allow for otherwise unexplained differences between states which could be expected to bias results based on a single cross section moreover this much larger sample provides the statistical power necessary to disentangle the separate effects of different categories of taxes public expenditures and transfer payments a distinguishing feature of this paper is that we explicitly recognize the government budget constraint linking these fiscal variables and the deficit or surplus in addition we have taken account of the effects of labor force characteristics by including variables for wage rates unionization and population density our results indicate that tax increases significantly retard economic growth when the revenue is used to fund transfer payments as a result programs of income redistribution are more effectively undertaken at the federal than at the state and local level on the other hand when the revenue is received for publication april 30 1984 revision accepted for publication january 22 1985 university of california davis i am indebted to the institute of governmental affairs at the university of california davis for financial support to adrienne kandel for invaluable research assistance and to two referees for their helpful comments 1 see williams 1967 morgan and brownlee 1974 vasquez and deseve 1977 and the advisory commission on intergovernmental relations 1981 see also due 1961 for a survey of the early literature including a discussion of the findings and limitations of survey results on this topic 574 1 copyright 1985 this content downloaded from 157 55 39 35 on mon 29 aug 2016 04 45 38 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms state and local taxes and economic growth 575 used instead to finance enhanced public services such as highways education and public health and safety the favorable impact on location and production decisions provided by the improved services may more than counterbalance the disincentive effects of the concomitant taxes these findings underscore the importance of considering the incentives provided by a state s expenditures as well as by its taxes we begin by sketching a model which provides the basis for the analysis and discussing appropriate estimation techniques then in section ii we describe the data used and our hypotheses the econometric results are presented in section iii followed by brief concluding remarks in the final

determinants of income growth in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan labor markets this article analyzes determinants of growth across labor markets in the united states using a production function approach based on four inputs labor manufacturing investment human capital investment and public capital investment we find little role for public capital investment in growth but that manufacturing investment spurred growth in nonmetropolitan areas in contrast to metropolitan areas we also find that human capital investment mattered more for metropolitan areas than for nonmetropolitan areas further the presence of more colleges and universities more household amenities and lower tax rates are all found to have encouraged human capital accumulation in u s labor markets copyright 2008 oxford university press

natural natural experiments in economics the recent literature exploiting natural events as natural experiment instruments is reviewed to assess to what extent it has advanced empirical knowledge a weakness of the studies that adopt this approach is that the necessary set of behavioral market and technological assumptions made by the authors in justifying their interpretations of the estimates is often absent the methodology and findings from twenty studies are summarized and simple economic models are used to elucidate the implicit assumptions made by the authors and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the interpretations of the findings to the relaxation of some of these assumptions