dynamic oligopolies without full information and with continuously distributed time lags abstract dynamic oligopolies are examined without full information on the price function with each firm using a perceived price function that usually differs from the actual inverse demand function of the market it is assumed that firms experience time lags in obtaining and implementing information on the price and also on output under realistic assumptions we show that without time lags the steady state is always locally asymptotically stable whereas in the presence of time lags situations of local instability may occur the possibility of limit cycles is examined and some special cases are considered

bulls bears and market sheep abstract a deterministic excess demand model of stock market behavior is presented that generates stochastically fluctuating prices and randomly switching bear and bull markets

effects of demand side management on chinese household electricity consumption empirical findings from chinese household survey abstract china s residential electricity demand has grown rapidly over the last three decades and given the expected continued growth demand side management dsm can play an important role in reducing electricity demand by using micro level data collected from 1450 households in 27 provinces in the first ever china residential energy consumption survey in 2012 this study estimates the effects of three dsm measures empirically tiered household electricity pricing china energy label program and information feedback mechanisms we find these measures have contributed to moderating residential electricity demand growth but additional policy reform and tools are needed to increase their effectiveness and impact residential electricity demand is found to be price and income inelastic and tiered pricing alone may not be as effective in electricity conservation the statistically significant relationship between china energy label efficient refrigerators but not televisions and lowered residential electricity consumption reflect mixed program effectiveness lastly of the information feedback currently available through electricity bills payment frequency and meters only meter reader is estimated to be statistically significant important policy implications and recommendations for improving each of these three dsm measures to expand their impact on reducing residential electricity consumption are identified

temporary foreign workers and firms theory and canadian evidence abstract temporary foreign worker tfw programs have grown considerably in size when uncapped we develop a simple efficiency wage model to explain this phenomenon and examine the empirical evidence for it we also use the model to evaluate the implications of tfw programs for domestic workers in our framework firms that have been unable to find domestic workers may hire tfws at the wage previously advertised to domestic workers due to the lower outside option for tfws than domestic workers tfws will exert more effort for the same wage firms would thus prefer to hire otherwise identical tfws rather than domestic workers our model identifies an unintended consequence of a tfw program since the repercussions of a failed domestic job search are less severe if a tfw may be hired instead firms have an incentive to lower their wage offers made to domestic workers using canadian data we find that relative to domestic workers tfws work longer hours have lower rates of absenteeism and are less likely to be laid off consistent with higher effort in our model moreover for tfws from home countries with a relatively high outside option effort is lower than for tfws from other countries resume travailleurs etrangers temporaires et entreprises theorie et exemple canadien en l absence de plafonnement les programmes de travailleurs etrangers temporaires ptet se sont considerablement developpes afin d expliquer ce phenomene et d en examiner les preuves empiriques nous avons developpe un modele simple de salaire d efficience nous avons egalement utilise ce modele pour evaluer l incidence des ptet sur les travailleurs domestiques dans notre cadre d etude les entreprises peinant a trouver une main d uvre locale peuvent embaucher des travailleurs etrangers temporaires au salaire prealablement propose aux travailleurs domestiques compte tenu d options exterieures plus faibles les travailleurs etrangers temporaires deploieront davantage d efforts pour le meme salaire les entreprises prefereront donc embaucher des travailleurs etrangers par ailleurs identiques plutot que des travailleurs domestiques notre modele identifie une consequence inattendue aux ptet etant donne que les consequences d une recherche d employes domestiques infructueuse sont attenuees par l embauche de travailleurs etrangers temporaires les entreprises sont incitees a diminuer les offres salariales proposees aux travailleurs locaux en exploitant les donnees propres au canada nous avons decouvert que les travailleurs etrangers temporaires travaillaient plus d heures avaient des taux d absenteisme inferieurs et etaient moins susceptibles de se faire congedier que les travailleurs domestiques conformement au concept d effort accru developpe dans notre modele en outre pour les travailleurs etrangers temporaires originaires de pays a options exterieures relativement elevees l effort sera moindre que pour ceux provenant d autres pays

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

the highs and lows of the minimum wage effect a time series cross section study of the canadian law we examine the effects of minimum wage legislation in canada over the period 1975 93 for teenagers we find that a 10 increase in the minimum wage is associated with roughly a 2 5 decrease in employment we also find that this result is driven by low frequency variation in the data at high frequencies the elasticity is positive and insignificant the difference in the elasticity across the bandwidth has implications for the interpretation of employment dynamics as a result of minimum wage policy and experimental design in minimum wage studies it also provides a simple reconciliation of the new minimum wage research which reports very small negative or positive elasticities

entrepreneurship start up costs and employment abstract we study the effects of business start up costs on employment in a model with managers workers and matching we show that higher start up costs discourage entrepreneurs and increase the fraction of the population who become workers job creation suffers and employment settles at a lower level we illustrate with evidence from major oecd economies where large variations in start up costs are correlated with large variations in employment levels

the consequences of minimum wage laws some new theoretical ideas economists generally agree that the effect of a binding minimum wage law is to move firms backward along the demand curve for low skill workers however this prediction of worker displacement depends critically on the assumption that the productivity of firms labor is not dependent on the wage in this paper we show that in a conventional efficiency wage model a minimum wage may increase the level of employment in low wage jobs the formal logic of our model is similar to the case of labor demand under monopsony but arises in a model with a large number of employers

the effect of utility time varying pricing and load control strategies on residential summer peak electricity use a review abstract peak demand for electricity in north america is expected to grow challenging electrical utilities to supply this demand in a cost effective reliable manner therefore there is growing interest in strategies to reduce peak demand by eliminating electricity use or shifting it to non peak times this strategy is commonly called demand response in households common strategies are time varying pricing which charge more for energy use on peak or direct load control which allows utilities to curtail certain loads during high demand periods we reviewed recent north american studies of these strategies the data suggest that the most effective strategy is a critical peak price cpp program with enabling technology to automatically curtail loads on event days there is little evidence that this causes substantial hardship for occupants particularly if they have input into which loads are controlled and how and have an override option in such cases a peak load reduction of at least 30 is a reasonable expectation it might be possible to attain such load reductions without enabling technology by focusing on household types more likely to respond and providing them with excellent support a simple time of use tou program can only expect to realise on peak reductions of 5

on the specification of noise in two agent based asset pricing models abstract the paper is concerned with two recent agent based models of speculative dynamics from the literature one by gaunersdorfer and hommes 2007 and the other by he and li 2007 at short as well as long lags both of them display an autocorrelation structure in absolute and squared returns that comes fairly close to that of real data at a daily frequency the note argues that these long memory effects are to be ascribed to the stochastic specification of the price equation which despite the wide fluctuations in these models fails to normalize the price shocks under an appropriate respecification the long memory completely disappears it is subsequently shown that an alternative introduction of randomness which may be called structural stochastic volatility can restore the original properties and even improves upon them

the ins and outs of unemployment in canada 1976 2008 this paper studies the flows into and out of unemployment in canada at an aggregate and a number of disaggregated levels i find that inflows into unemployment are countercyclical and outflows are procyclical at an aggregate level changes in the rate at which individuals leave unemployment account for most of the changes in unemployment rates in canada between 1976 and 2008 however flows into unemployment matter more at some disaggregated levels there are also some differences in the contributions of flows into and out of unemployment to changes in unemployment rates across the 1981 82 and 1990 92 recessions ce texte etudie les entrees et sorties du chomage au canada au niveau agrege et a un certain nombre de niveaux de desagregation on decouvre que les entrees en chomage sont contre cycliques et les sorties pro cycliques au niveau agrege les changements dans le taux de sorties du chomage expliquent le gros des changements dans les taux de chomage au canada entre 1976 et 2008 cependant les flux a l entree sont plus importants a certains niveaux de desagregation on note aussi des differences dans la contribution des flux a l entree et a la sortie du chomage aux changements dans les taux de chomage au cours des recessions de 1981 82 et de 1990 92

interactions between stock bond and housing markets abstract we develop a model in which investors can participate in stock bond and housing markets investors market entry decisions are subject to herding effects and depend on the markets price trends and on their mispricings the dynamics of our model is governed by a four dimensional nonlinear map and its unique inner steady state is characterized by standard present value relations between dividends rents and the bond rate amongst other things we show that endogenous stock and housing market dynamics emerge countercyclical to each other if investors react strongly to the markets price trends such a cross feedback reflects investors tendency to transfer their enthusiasm from one speculative market to another

unequal treatment of identical agents in cournot equilibrium oligopoly models where prior actions by firms affect subsequent marginal costs have been useful in illuminating policy debates in areas such as antitrust regulation environmental protection and international competition we discuss properties of such models when a cournot equilibrium occurs at the second stage aggregate production costs strictly decline with no change in gross revenue or gross consumer surplus if the prior actions strictly increase the variance of marginal costs without changing the marginal cost sum therefore unless the cost of inducing second stage asymmetry more than offsets this reduction in production costs the private and social optima are asymmetric

long term impact of minimum wages on workers careers evidence from two decades of longitudinal linked employer employee data i acknowledge the support of the spanish ministry of the economy severo ochoa programme for centres of excellence in r d sev20150563 the aei spain and feder ue grant eco2016 76734 p

sunk costs and strategic commitment a proposed three stage equilibrium dixit s i980 paper in this journal the role of investment in entry deterrence has attracted considerable interest from economists concerned with constructing a modern theory of strategic behaviour towards entry in fact the paper has spawned quite an industry of commitment models in which the equilibrium payoffs in some final period game can be influenced by strategic commitments made by the players in an earlier period for similar models with important insights into strategic entry deterrence see eaton and lipsey i980 i98i schmalensee i98i the purpose of this note is to argue that when the instrument of stragetic commitment takes the form of sunk costs which both entrant and incumbent have to bear as it does in dixit s paper and in many other examples a three stage model rather than the two stage model presented by dixit is required although the proposed equilibrium differs from dixit s its qualitative features are the same it may or may not be profitable to deter entry and if it is the first mover may still prefer to play an accommodation strategy and allow entry to take place following dixit we restrict our attention to the asymmetric case in which one firm the incumbent makes the first move the two stage game involves the first mover sinking part of its costs in advance so that in the second stage equilibrium it will have a current cost advantage over the entrant which must incur the full cost of producing any desired output level the second period cost asymmetry ensures the incumbent a lar ger share of the post entry market which may be sufficient to deter entry altogether the problem with the two stage game lies in the nature of sunk costs sunk costs by definition are committed before the production period takes place if they were expended as a flow simultaneously with production they would not be sunk the installation of capacity is the natural example employed by dixit and well illustrates the point if installed capacity is a sunk cost which it must be for the incumbent to acquire any strategic advantage at all then the entrant s installed capacity is equally sunk and must also be committed before the production period takes place given this observation the post entry final period equilibrium should not be modelled as if the entrant were simultaneously incurring both variable and sunk costs but the incumbent only incurs variable costs this implies too great an asymmetry in favour of the incumbent the final period equilibrium should involve both firms incurring only variable

happy birthday you re fired the effects of an age dependent minimum wage on youth employment flows in the netherlands the dutch minimum wage for workers aged 15 to 23 is defined as a stepwise increasing function of a worker s calendar age using dutch administrative records the author shows that the birthday disc

separations sorting and cyclical unemployment abstract this paper establishes a new fact about the compositional changes in the pool of unemployed over the us business cycle using microdata from the current population survey for the years 1962 2012 it documents that in recessions the pool of unemployed shifts toward workers with high wages in their previous job and that these shifts are driven by the high cyclicality of separations for high wage workers the paper finds that standard theories of wage setting and unemployment have difficulty in explaining these patterns and evaluates a number of alternative theories that do better in accounting for the new fact jel e24 e32 j31 j63 j64

stock market participation and endogenous boom bust dynamics abstract we develop a model in which stock market participation depends on current market movements and on the fundamental state of the market our model explains empirical and experimental evidence according to which increasing decreasing stock market participation amplifies bubbles crashes

minimum wage effects on labor market outcomes under search matching and endogenous contact rates building upon a continuous time model of search with nash bargaining in a stationary environment we analyze the effect of changes in minimum wages on labor market outcomes and welfare although minimum wage increases may or may not lead to increases in unemployment in our model they can be welfare improving to labor market participants on both the supply and demand sides of the labor market we discuss identification of the model using current population survey data on accepted wages and unemployment durations and show that by incorporating a limited amount of information from the demand side of the market it is possible to obtain credible and precise estimates of all primitive parameters we show that the optimal minimum wage in 1996 depends critically on whether or not contact rates can be considered to be exogenous and we note that the limited variation in minimum wages makes testing this assumption problematic

good jobs versus bad jobs this article develops a model of noncompetitive labor markets in which high wage good and low wage bad jobs coexist minimum wages and unemployment benefits shift the composition of employment toward high wage jobs because the composition of jobs in the laissez faire equilibrium is inefficiently biased toward low wage jobs these labor market regulations increase average labor productivity and may improve welfare

an equilibrium selection theory of monopolization we develop a duopoly model in which firms compete for the market e g investing in process innovation or product development as well as in the market e g setting quantities or prices competition for the market generates multiple equilibria that differ in the firms investment levels relative size and profitability we show that monopolization that affects competition in the market can act as an equilibrium selection device in competition for the market in particular it eliminates equilibria that are undesirable for the monopolizing firm while not generating new equilibria this result complicates the task of determining whether a firm s dominance in a given market is the result of fair competition or unlawful monopolization we discuss a number of implications for antitrust policy and litigation and illustrate these by means of two well known antitrust cases

dynamic analysis of discontinuous best response with innovation abstract starting from the static analysis in eckert et al 2017 we study a cournot duopoly where firms can decide to incur fixed costs in activities that improve their competitiveness i e product development or process innovation innovation costs generate discontinuities in the firms quantity best response functions and in turn a variety of equilibrium configurations including multiple equilibria we provide a dynamic global analysis of the equilibria and show the way in which firms initial expectations regarding the rivals level of output are crucial in defining the configuration of the long run equilibrium

the minimum wage and the employment of youth evidence from the nlsy using panel data on individuals from the national longitudinal survey of youth we find that employed individuals who were affected by the increases in the federal minimum wage in 1979 and 1980 were about 3 percent less likely to be employed a year later even after accounting for the fact that workers employed at the minimum wage may differ from their peers in unobserved ways

current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations hours worked and the return to working are weakly correlated traditionally the ability to account for this fact has been a litmus test for macroeconomic models existing real business cycle models fail this test dramatically we modify prototypical real business cycle models by allowing government consumption shocks to influence labor market dynamics this modification can in principle bring the models into closer conformity with the data our empirical results indicate that it does

getting handcuffs on an octopus theoretical work on minimum wage policy emphasizes labor market dynamics but the resulting implications for worker mobility remain largely untested the authors show that in the teenage labor market higher minimum wage standards reduce worker flows and increase job stability furthermore they find that the employment effects of a relatively higher minimum wage vary considerably across markets with different levels of turnover and labor market tightness results help to explain the small effects of minimum wage standards on employment commonly found in the aggregate data and are consistent with labor market models that involve search frictions

the impacts of energy efficiency policies meta analysis abstract this paper attempts to quantitatively summarize the existing empirical evidence on the effects of energy efficiency policies on energy demand and on the price of associated durable goods as well as to identify the main factors that systematically affect the estimated impacts to this end a meta regression analysis of the effects of energy efficiency policies is carried out on the basis of an extensive review of the existing literature selecting those studies that analyze the impact of energy efficiency policies with respect to a business as usual setting taking into account the econometric problems associated with this type of analysis intra class correlation cross sectional dependence publication bias in pursuit of robust outcomes the results show that the studies analyzing the effects of energy efficiency policies estimate a significant impact of these policies on energy demand 10 5 8 8 and the price of related durable goods 7 9 6 the main factors that influence results are the policy instrument the targeted sector the type of country the analyzed period the consideration of free riders and the type of analysis data and publication energy demand and the sector and analyzed period price of durables

inflation forecast targeting implementing and monitoring inflation targets abstract inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting the central bank s inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy the weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target money growth or exchange rate targeting is generally inferior than inflation targeting and leads to higher inflation variability commitment to target rules may be better than commitment to instrument rules

industry dynamics and the minimum wage a putty clay approach we document two new findings about the industry level response to minimum wage hikes first restaurant exit and entry both rise following a hike second there is no change in employment among continuing restaurants we develop a model of industry dynamics based on putty clay technology that is consistent with these findings in the model continuing restaurants cannot change employment and thus industry level adjustment occurs gradually through exit of labor intensive restaurants and entry of capital intensive restaurants interestingly the putty clay model matches the small estimated short run disemployment effect of the minimum wage found in other studies but produces a larger long run disemployment effect

a note on price and quantity competition in differentiated oligopolies abstract in this note we show that the results developed in n singh and x vives 1984 rand j econ 15 546 554 are sensitive to the duopoly assumption if there are more than two firms prices may be higher under price competition than under quantity competition this will be the case if quality differences are large and goods are complements if goods are substitutes high quality firms may earn higher profits under price competition than under quantity competition hence it is not evident which kind of competition is more efficient journal of economic literature classification numbers d43 l13

minimum wage effects throughout the wage distribution this paper provides evidence on a wide set of margins along which labor markets can adjust in response to increases in the minimum wage including wages hours employment and ultimately labor income not surprisingly the evidence indicates that low wage workers are most strongly affected while higher wage workers are little affected workers who initially earn near the minimum wage experience wage gains nevertheless their hours and employment decline and the combined effect of these changes on earned income suggests adverse consequences on net for low wage workers

inflation deflation expectations and economic stability in a kaleckian system abstract in this paper we analyze the impact of inflation deflation expectations and the effect of the monetary authority s inflation targeting policy in a kaleckian system on the basis of macro foundation approaches for this purpose we build a dynamical system composed of four variables the rate of utilization the wage share the nominal rate of interest and the expected rate of inflation and examine the properties especially stability of this dynamical system we then find that the existence of adaptive inflation deflation expectations always destabilizes our kaleckian system irrespective of the revision speed of expectations while that the monetary authority s intensive inflation targeting policy can make the system stable but the effect of this policy depends heavily upon the public credibility of it we also perform numerical simulations to check that our analysis is valid

innovation threats and strategic responses in oligopoly markets this paper deals with the strategic reaction of firms to competitive threats stemming from newly developed products of actual competitors product innovation projects go through multiple time consuming stages with several continuation termination decisions hence competitors can react to the threat before the new product is introduced and thereby may prevent or facilitate the product s introduction we consider a duopoly model where firm 1 can start a two stage product innovation project for obtaining a horizontally and vertically differentiated product in between the two stages firm 2 can react by making an investment that improves the competitive position of the current product we find that under weak vertical differentiation firm 2 wants firm 1 to innovate horizontal differentiation softens competition and firm 2 over invests to induce firm 1 to launch the new product second under strong vertical differentiation firm 1 starts the product innovation project triggering under investment by firm 2 but never finishes it the under investment makes firm 2 a weaker competitor which induces firm 1 not to innovate third under very strong vertical differentiation firm 2 prevents a launch of the new product by over investing this results in a strong competitive position of firm 2 it therefore captures such a big market share that firm 1 will not introduce the new product the situation of firm 1 in the old market has worsened the option to complete the innovation created by initiating the first stage of the innovation project has a negative value for firm 1

multiple equilibria and minimum wages in labor markets with informational frictions and heterogeneous production technologies it is often argued that a mandatory minimum wage is binding only if the wage density displays a spike at it in this article we analyze a model with search frictions and heterogeneous production technologies in which imposition of a minimum wage affects wages even though after imposition the lowest wage in the market exceeds the minimum wage the model has multiple equilibria as a result of the fact that the reservation wage of the unemployed and the lowest production technology in use affect each other imposition of a minimum wage may improve social welfare

reducing household electricity demand through smart metering the role of improved information about energy saving abstract the international roll out of residential smart meters has increased considerably in recent years the improved consumption feedback provided and in particular the installation of in house displays has been shown to significantly reduce residential electricity demand in some international trials this paper attempts to uncover the underlying drivers of such information led reductions by exploring two research questions first does feedback improve a household s stock of information about potential energy reducing behaviours and second do improvements in such information help explain the demand reductions associated with the introduction of smart metering and time of use tariffs data is from a randomised controlled smart metering trial ireland which also collected extensive information on household attitudes towards energy conservation and self reported stocks of information related to energy saving as with previous results in ireland we find that participation in a smart metering programme with time of use tariffs significantly reduces demand although treated households also increased their self reported energy reducing information such improvements are not correlated with demand reductions in the short run given this result it is possible that feedback and other information provided in the context of smart metering are mainly effective in reducing and shifting demand because they act as a reminder and motivator

boom bust dynamics in a stock market participation model with heterogeneous traders abstract the boundedly rational heterogeneous agent literature can be considered to have properly started with a number of contributions in the early 90s with the impressive contribution by carl chiarella who amongst his huge field of research developed several milestone models of heterogeneous interacting agents that are able to generate a number of dynamic outcomes compatible with the empirical evidence in this paper we propose a stock market model in which participation depends upon an attractiveness measure related to the market activity and the fundamental value of the market a market maker adjusts the stock price with respect to the current endogenous excess market demand which in turn depends on the demands of the different types of agents populating the economy market participants are also allowed to switch between different strategies analytical and numerical results confirm how the participation mechanism amplifies the occurrence of endogenous booms and busts in line with empirical and experimental evidence

cournot duopoly when the competitors operate multiple production plants this article considers a cournot duopoly under an isoelastic demand function and cost functions with built in capacity limits the special feature is that each firm is assumed to operate multiple plants which can be run alone or in combination each firm has two plants with different capacity limits so each has three cost options the third being to run both plants dividing the load according to the principle of equal marginal costs as a consequence the marginal cost functions come in three disjoint pieces so the reaction functions derived on basis of global profit maximization may also consist of disjoint pieces this is reflected in a particular bifurcation structure due to border collision bifurcations and to particular basin boundaries related to the discontinuities it is shown that stable cycles may coexist and the non existence of unstable cycles constitutes a new property we also compare the coexistent short periodic solutions in terms of the resulting real profits

disentangling the minimum wage puzzle an analysis of worker accessions and separations changes in the legislation in the mid 1980s in portugal provide remarkably good conditions for analysis of the employment effects of mandatory minimum wages as the minimum wage increased sharply for a very specific group of workers relying on a matched employer employee panel data set we model gross worker flows accessions and separations in continuing firms as well as in new firms and those going out of business using a count regression model applied to proportions employment trends for teenagers the affected group are contrasted to those of older workers before and after the raise in the youth minimum wage the major effect on teenagers of a rising minimum wage has been the reduction of separations from the employer which during the period under analysis has compensated for the reduction of accessions to new and continuing firms in this sense our results can reconcile some of the previous evidence in the empirical literature when analyzing the aggregate impact of the minimum wage on youth employment without decomposing it by type of worker flow jel d21 j23 j38

what do customers want from improved residential electricity services evidence from a choice experiment abstract improvements in customer satisfaction as well as product service quality represent a common objective of all businesses and electricity services are no exception using choice experiments and a mixed logit model this study quantitatively analyzes customers preferences and their marginal willingness to pay for improved residential electricity services the study provides an ex ante evaluation of customers acceptance of hypothetical electricity services according to the results customers consider the electricity bill and the electricity mix as the two most important attributes when choosing their electricity services customers are willing to pay 2 2 more in the average electricity bill an additional monthly electricity bill of krw 1 064 usd 0 96 for a significant increase in the share of renewable energy which is far less than the actual cost of achieving this renewable target therefore it is better to maintain the current electricity mix in principle and the renewable share should be gradually expanded instead of making a sudden change in the electricity mix in addition customers are willing to pay krw 6 793 usd 6 15 more to reduce blackouts once in a year and krw 64 year usd 0 06 year to reduce a minute of each blackout

the effect of minimum wages on youth employment in canada a panel study previous u s panel estimates of minimum wage effects have been criticized on the grounds that their identification rests on comparisons of low wage and high wage workers using canadian panel data for 1988 90 i compare estimates based on the traditional u s methodology with those based on samples of low wage workers exclusively the results would appear to vindicate the critics the minimum wage effect from the latter approach is virtually zero yet estimates from different subgroups of low wage workers indicate that there is a significant disemployment effect for those with longer low wage employment histories this highlights the heterogeneity within low wage workers and the importance of carefully defining the target group not solely based on workers wages

testing the nairu model for the united states this paper tests using u s data the dynamics implied by the nairu view of the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate the results are somewhat sensitive to the measure of inflation used but they generally reject the dynamics an alternative way of thinking about the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate is suggested

investment and the taylor rule in a dynamic keynesian model abstract we study monetary policy in a reduced form dynamic model with bounded rationality and an empirically motivated investment function investment has important dynamic effects in our model in particular the cost of capital effect on investment is more important for monetary transmission than the more widely studied intertemporal substitution parameter in consumption furthermore a strong taylor rule response to unemployment in this model is more effective in stabilizing demand induced fluctuations than a strong response to inflation indeed an excessively aggressive response to inflation destabilizes the simulated output and inflation fluctuations

the labour share and the dynamics of output abstractwe derive a new keynesian is curve that is augmented to capture the direct effects of the labour share on output our derivation shows that the direct effect of the labour share on output is ambiguous furthermore theory suggests that the expected labour share negatively affects output empirically we find that the labour share plays a significant role in driving output dynamics however contrary to theoretical expectation the expected labour share positively affects output in some cases a finding we call the labour share puzzle we also find that over time there seems to be a general shift in aggregate demand dynamics towards being profit led i e rising labour share decreases output we conclude that policymakers should not ignore the labour share in their decisions

residential electricity consumption behavior influencing factors related theories and intervention strategies abstract the proportion of residential electricity consumption in the total energy consumption has increased rapidly in the past decades all over the world it is becoming increasingly important to promote household energy conservation for the sustainable development of a country in the case of resource constraints this paper reviews and evaluates the existing research works which are related to the residential electricity consumption behavior particular attention is given to the following aspects 1 factors influencing residential electricity consumption in social psychology 2 theories of social psychology in understanding residential electricity consumption behavior 3 different interventions aiming at encouraging households to reduce electricity consumption finally we discuss the challenges and opportunities of research on residential electricity consumption behavior in the big data era

prices information and nudges for residential electricity conservation a meta analysis incentivising households to lower their electricity consumption is increasingly used as a tool to create a more flexible electricity demand previous reviews estimate that electricity savings of 6 4 7 4 can be achieved through monetary informational and behavioural incentives this papers argues that a more realistic estimate is of a 1 9 3 9 reduction in consumption based on the most recent experimental data from both peer reviewed and grey literature sources using data from 52 studies published during the smart grid era 2005 onwards the effects of incentives from 128 observations amounting to 713 002 households are analysed the results show that individual and real time feedback as well as personalised advice on how to save electricity are more effective than feedback on electricity costs and general electricity savings tips which lead to relative increases in consumption despite improvements in the quality of more recent studies the analysis highlights the importance of methodological rigour in carrying out and reporting effects of incentives an absence of a control group of socio demographic data and the self selection of participants into treatment leads to overestimation of effects

effects of the minimum wage on employment dynamics the voluminous literature on minimum wages offers little consensus on the extent to which a wage floor impacts employment we argue that the minimum wage will impact employment over time through changes in growth rather than an immediate drop in relative employment levels we show that commonly used specifications in this literature especially those that include state specific time trends will not accurately capture these effects using three separate state panels of administrative employment data we find that the minimum wage reduces job growth over a period of several years this finding is supported using several empirical specifications

explaining shifts in uk electricity demand using time use data from 1974 to 2014 abstract peaks in electricity demand generate significant negative environmental and economic impacts as a result recent policy and research attention has focused on the potential for temporal flexibility of demand especially in the context of intermittent low carbon generation much of this work emphasises the need to understand what makes up the peak and to engineer solutions to meet this normal consumption however today s patterns of temporal consumption may only be a snapshot of continuing change this paper uses uk household time use survey data to analyse change in temporal patterns of activities over the last 40 years to shed light on apparent temporal shifts in overall uk electricity demand the results highlight long term evolution in when and where people work travel eat use media and carry out social activities in particular they suggest that changing patterns of labour market participation may be contributing to shifts in food related personal home care and media activities which correlates with shifts in electricity demand we conclude that both stable and dynamic social structures and forms of organisation have direct implications for policy debates around current and future flexible demand side solutions

recent immigrants as labor market arbitrageurs evidence from the minimum wage this paper investigates the local labor supply effects of changes to the minimum wage by examining the response of low skilled immigrants location decisions canonical models emphasize the importance of labor mobility when evaluating the employment effects of the minimum wage yet few studies address this outcome directly low skilled immigrant populations shift toward labor markets with stagnant minimum wages and this result is robust to a number of alternative interpretations this mobility provides behavior based evidence in favor of a non trivial negative employment effect of the minimum wage further it reduces the estimated demand elasticity using teens employment losses among native teens are substantially larger in states that have historically attracted few immigrant residents

n firm oligopolies with production adjustment costs best responses and equilibrium abstract n firm single product oligopolies will be examined without product differentiation and with production adjustment costs the best response functions of the firms will be first determined in terms of the outputs of the rest of the industry and the firm s own outputs of the previous time period this function is always decreasing not necessarily continuous and might have two different values then the best response will be determined when the output of the rest of the industry is replaced by the output of the entire industry we will show that this function might have infinitely many values leading to infinitely many equilibria a complete description of the equilibrium set will also be given the theoretical findings will be illustrated with the case of linear price and linear cost functions

holding idle capacity to deter entry in this journal dixit i980 carefully analysed the extent to which an established firm facing a prospective entrant might make an investment in capacity beyond that which is optimal for its pre entry output in his model both the established firm and prospective entrants understand that a quantity setting nash equilibrium would be established in any post entry game dixit showed that spence i977 had studied an imperfect equilibrium that is an equilibrium that depended upon a threat that was not credible to obtain his result that firms might hold excess capacity to deter entry in a perfect equilibrium a firm would not wish to install capacity that would be left idle if entry did not occur dixit s conclusion however depends on his assumption that each firm s marginal revenue is always decreasing in the other s output this is quite a restrictive assumption for example it is never satisfied in the relevant range for economists second favourite demand curve constant elasticity demand the basic point is unchanged if the firms anticipate price competition with differentiated products rather thanquantity competition in any post entry game under quite plausible conditions rational firms facing rational potential entrants may install capacity that will certainly be left idle we are thus able to rehabilitate spence s original proposition in a perfect equilibrium setting

a keynesian macroeconometric framework for the analysis of monetary policy rules abstract in the framework of a keynesian based monetary macro model we study the implications of targeting monetary aggregates or targeting the interest rate as two alternative monetary policy rules whereas the former targets the inflation rate indirectly through the control of the money supply the latter also called the taylor rule implies direct inflation targeting our monetary macro model exhibits asset market clearing disequilibrium in the product and labor markets sluggish price and quantity adjustments two phillips curves for the wage and price dynamics and expectations formation which represents a combination of adaptive and forward looking behavior the parameters of different model variants are estimated partly through single equation and partly through subsystem estimations for us quarterly time series data 1960 1 1995 1 with the estimated parameters system simulations for the two monetary policy rules are performed although the two rules have slightly different stability properties we show that discretionary monetary policy i e policy that responds to the state of macro variables has stabilizing effects we also show that our model with either of the two rules generate in terms of impulse response functions roughly the same responses to shocks as one obtains from standard var studies

employment effects of the new german minimum wage evidence from establishment level microdata the authors present the first evidence on the consequences of the new statutory minimum wage in germany which was implemented on january 1 2015 using the iab establishment panel they identify e

minimum wage policy with optimal taxes and unemployment abstract using a search model i derive a formula that links the welfare gains from the minimum wage to its effect on low skilled labor force participation and employment this formula shows that the minimum wage is welfare improving if pushing the low skilled labor market tightness downwards brings it closer to its efficient level i estimate the causal effect of the minimum wage on low skilled labor force participation and employment using federal and state minimum wage variation i discuss the policy implications of my estimates when viewed through the lens of the marginal welfare gain formula

rational expectations equilibrium with conditioning on past prices a mean variance example abstract the paper uses an intertemporal mean variance model of the market for a dividend paying risky asset to analyse rational expectations equilibria when all agents condition their expectations on past rather than current prices the main result shows that if the time span between successive market periods is short the market will approximate full informational efficiency arbitrarily closely yet the returns to being informed are bounded away from zero this contrasts with the grossman stiglitz proposition that markets cannot come close to informational efficiency if the acquisition of information is costly

indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world experimental evidence the authors design and study an olg experimental economy where the government finances a fixed real deficit through seigniorage the economy has continua of nonstationary rational expectations equilibria and two stationary rational expectations equilibria the authors do not observe nonstationary rational expectations paths observed paths tend to converge close to or somewhat below the low inflation stationary state the adaptive learning hypothesis is consistent with the data in selecting the low inflation stationary state rational expectations equilibrium as a long run stationary equilibrium nevertheless simple adaptive learning models do not capture the market uncertainty or the biases observed in the data copyright 1993 by the econometric society

minimum wage impacts on youth employment transitions 1993 1999 abstract the longitudinal nature of the master file of the survey of labour and income dynamics slid for the period 1993 9 enables comparing transitions from employment to non employment for individuals affected by minimum wage changes with appropriate comparison groups not affected by minimum wages this is based on the large number 24 of minimum wage changes that have occurred across the different provincial jurisdictions in canada over the 1990s the results indicate that the minimum wage increases have increased the transition from employment to non employment of employed low wage youths who are at risk of being affected by a minimum wage increase by around 6 percentage points ranging from 4 to 8 percentage points these disemployment effects in turn imply minimum wage elasticities of about 0 4 ranging from 0 3 to 0 5

the impact of minimum wages on labour market transitions we investigate dierences in labour market transition rates in high versus low minimum wage regimes using canadian data spanning 1979 to 2008 the data include consistent questions on job tenure and reason for job separation for the whole period over the same time frame there were over 140 minimum wage changes in canada we nd that higher minimum wages are associated with lower hiring rates but also with lower job separation rates importantly the reduced separation rates are due mainly to reductions in layos occur in the rst 6 months of a job and are present for unskilled workers of all ages our estimates imply that a 10 increase in the minimum wage generates a 3 9 reduction in the layo rate we present a search and matching model that ts with these patterns and test its implications overall our results imply

lobbying for minimum wages using a common agency lobbying framework this paper illustrates how the minimum wage set reflects the interaction between economic and political factors and under what circumstances will the policymaker be induced through lobbying to change the minimum wage specifically when the labor demand elasticity is large lobbying is successful in inducing the policymaker to set the minimum wage in accordance with her political ideology however the paper also shows the conditions under which lobbying will reverse the ideological preference and induce a business friendly government to increase the minimum wage empirical analysis on a panel data for ten canadian provinces gives considerable support for theoretical predictions the real minimum wage decreases in skill adjusted union density and political ideology while larger labor demand elasticity reinforces the influence of political ideology in the presence of lobbying jel j38 d72 d78

residential electricity pricing in china the context of price based demand response abstract as a secondary energy electricity is an important channel between original energy and energy consumers electricity price is a critical factor for the interests of all involvers in the electric power market it also plays an important role for the sustainable development of energy and environment smart grid is a new conception proposed in recent years to improve the intelligent level and increase the efficiency of electric power system operation smart grid combines and integrates information technology communication technology and intelligent control technology with tradition power system to achieve the many objectives of smart grid demand response dr as an effective technique of demand side management dsm refers to the changes in electricity consumption behavior of users in response to the dynamic price or incentive rewards price based demand response pbdr is one of the two major dr programs in this paper we first introduce the pricing theories in economics the pricing of electricity and the development of electricity pricing in china then we present a detailed discussion on the pbdr strategies in the dsm of smart grid also the research status of pbdr is reviewed finally it gives a summary of the whole paper in the last section

new product introduction and capacity investment by incumbents effects of size on strategy we analyze a duopoly where capacity constrained firms offer an established product and have the option to offer an additional new and differentiated product we show that the firm with the smaller capacity on the established market has a higher incentive to innovate and reaches a larger market share on the market for the new product an increase in capacity of the larger firm can prevent its competitor from innovating whereas an increase in capacity of the smaller firm cannot prevent innovation of its larger competitor in equilibrium the firm with smaller capacity on the established market might outperform the larger firm with respect to total payoffs

equilibrium selection in a nonlinear duopoly game with adaptive expectations abstract we analyze a nonlinear discrete time cournot duopoly game where players have adaptive expectations the evolution of expected outputs over time is generated by the iteration of a noninvertible two dimensional map the long run behavior is characterized by multistability that is the presence of coexisting stable consistent beliefs which correspond to nash equilibria in the quantity space hence a problem of equilibrium selection arises and the long run outcome strongly depends on the choice of the players initial beliefs we analyze the basins of attraction and their qualitative changes as the model parameters vary we illustrate that the basins might be nonconnected sets and reveal the mechanism which is responsible for this often neglected kind of complexity the analysis of the global bifurcations which cause qualitative changes in the topological structure of the basins is carried out by the method of critical curves

on the consistency of backward looking expectations the case of the cobweb in dynamic models of economic fluctuations backward looking expectations with systematic forecasting errors are inconsistent with rational behaviour in non linear dynamic models exhibiting seemingly unpredictable chaotic fluctuations however simple habitual rule of thumb backward looking expectation rules may yield non zero but nevertheless non systematic forecasting errors in a chaotic model expectational forecasting errors may have zero autocorrelations at all lags even for rational agents patterns in these forecasting errors may be very difficult to detect especially in the presence of small noise backward looking expectations are then not necessarily inconsistent with rational behaviour we investigate whether simple expectation schemes such as naive or adaptive expectations can be consistent with rational behaviour in the simplest of all non linear dynamic economic models the non linear cobweb model

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

a re evaluation of adaptive expectations in light of global nonlinear dynamic analysis we undertake an analysis of the dynamic behaviour of a discrete time nonlinear monetary dynamics model with adaptive expectation that is a basic mechanism in a broad class of descriptive macrodynamic models we consider in particular a variety of ways in which the adaptive expectations mechanism may be formulated these differ in the degree of rationality of the economic agents that inhabit the model we study in detail the local and global properties of the maps determining the price dynamics