where do markets come from production markets have two sides producers are a fully connected clique transacting with buyers as a separate but aggregated clique each producer is a distinctive firm with a distinctive product each side continually monitors reactions of the other through the medium of a joint social construction the schedule of terms of trade each producer is guided in choice of volume by the tangible outcomes of other producers not by speculation on hypothetical reactions of buyers to its actions each producer acts purely on self interest based on observed actions of all others summarized through a feedback process the summary is the terms of trade schedule which reduces to constant price only in limiting cases the market emerges as a structure of roles with a differentiated niche for each firm explicit formulae both for firms and for market aggregates are obtained by comparative statics methods for one family of assumptions about cost structures and about buyers evaluations of differentiated products not just any set of firms can sustain terms of trade with any set of buyers there prove to be three main kinds of markets and three sorts of market failure within a parameter space that is specified in detail one sort of market paradox has a madison avenue flavor another is more conventional grind and a third crowded is a new form not included in any existing theory of markets current american industrial markets are drawn on for 20 illustrations of which three are presented in some detail inequality in firms market shares measured by gini coefficients is discussed

claim timing and ex post adverse selection many health care treatments are not urgent and may be delayed if patients so choose because insurance coverage is typically determined by the treatment date individuals may have incentives to strategically delay treatments to minimize out of pocket costs the strategic delay of treatment a particular form of moral hazard can be an important source of subsequent adverse selection in which ex ante identical individuals select insurance coverage based on their differing accumulation of previously delayed treatments this article investigates these forces empirically in the context of the missing market for dental insurance using rich claim level data my analysis reveals that approximately 40 of individuals strategically delay dental treatments when incentivized to do so and this flexibility in delaying treatment can explain why the market for dental insurance has largely unraveled more generally the counterfactual analysis suggests features such as open enrolment periods and contracting on pre existing conditions may be helpful tools in overcoming adverse selection in insurance contexts where the timing of uncertainty is not contractible

monotone stochastic choice models the case of risk and time preferences suppose that when evaluating two alternatives x and y by means of a parametric utility function low values of the parameter indicate a preference for x and high values indicate a preference for y

close but no cigar the bimodal rewards to prize seeking this article examines the economic effects of prizes with implications for the diversity of market positions especially in cultural fields many prizes have three notable features that together yield an emergent reward structure 1 consumers treat prizes as judgment devices when making purchase decisions 2 prizes introduce sharp discontinuities between winners and also rans and 3 appealing to prize juries requires costly sacrifices of mass audience appeal when all three conditions obtain winning a prize is valuable but seeking it is costly so trying and failing yields the worst outcome a logic we characterize as a tullock lottery we test the model with analyses of oscar nominations and hollywood films from 1985 through 2009 we create an innovative measure of prize seeking or oscar appeal on the basis of similarity to recent nominees in terms of such things as genre plot keywords and release date we then show that oscar appeal has no effect on profitability however this zero order relationship conceals that returns to strong oscar appeals are bimodal with super normal returns for nominees and large losses for snubs we then argue that the effect of judgment devices on fields depends on how they structure and refract information

job exit behavior of older men a dynamic programming model of job exit behavior and retirement is constructed and estimated using the method of simulated moments the model and estimation method allow for both unobserved individual effects and unobserved job specific match effects the model is estimated using two different assumptions about individual discount factors first a static model with the discount factor equal to zero is estimated then a dynamic model with the discount factor equal to 95 is estimated in both models it is found that bad health age and lack of education increase the probability of retirement the dynamic model performs better than the static model and has different implications for retirement behavior the job specific effects are an important source of unobserved heterogeneity copyright 1991 by the econometric society

social security unanticipated benefit increases and the timing of retirement between 1969 and 1972 real u s social security retirement benefits rose by 20 the rise was unanticipated and followed over 15 years of relatively constant real benefits this paper proposes a model of retirement behaviour in which workers respond differently although in a theoretically consistent manner to the anticipated and unanticipated components of the social security benefit they can receive upon retirement the retirement age decision in the presence of unanticipated benefit changes is shown to be a special case of utility maximization under a nonlinear budget constraint the model is estimated using the longitudinal retirement history survey between 1969 and 1973 real social security benefits for u s workers with fixed earnings histories were raised by more than 20 these increases were the first significant increases in social security since the early 1950 s at the same time that retirement benefits were rising the trend toward early retirement among older american men accelerated in the period from 1965 to 1970 the labour force participation rate of men aged 55 to 64 fell 1 6 percentage points from 84x6 to 83 0 but in the five years after 1970 the rate fell an additional 7 4 points to 75 6 the participation rate of men over 65 fell by 1 1 points in the five years after 1965 but by 5 2 points during the mid 1970 s 1 not surprisingly a large share of this labour force decline has been attributed to the effects of the social security increases enacted in 1969 and 1972 the purpose of this paper is to determine the precise effect of the unanticipated benefit increases on the timing of retirement the effect of social security on the age at retirement has been the subject of lively debate in recent years the literature has been reviewed in two recent papers by mitchell and fields 1982 and hurd 1983 who reach nearly opposite conclusions about the lessons that can be drawn from past empirical research mitchell and fields find that no definite judgment can be reached about the effects of social security on retirement while hurd argues that more careful studies have all found a significant and meaningful effect of social security on early retirement certainly the earlier studies by boskin 1977 and boskin and hurd 1978 found very large social security effects with boskin concluding that the social security system has been the major factor in the explosion in earlier retirement boskin 1977 p 1 very recent studies by burkhauser and quinn 1983 burtless and moffitt 1984 diamond and hausman 1984 fields and mitchell 1984 and hausman and wise 1985 have found smaller social security effects however none of them dealt explicitly with the rapid rise in real benefits during the early 1970 s the approach taken in this paper differs significantly from that in the earlier research just cited the proposed econometric model takes full account of the nonlinear relationship between goods consumption and the age at retirement introduced by social security

cultural industries in international business research progress and prospect cultural industries systems of organizations that produce and distribute cultural goods with substantive symbolic aesthetic or artistic value represent an important exciting and complex context that receives growing scholarly attention as the first review of management research on cultural industries this paper aims to provide a systematic synthesis of current research summarizing distinctive characteristics of cultural industries and highlighting research gaps we also illustrate how the unique nature dynamics and evolution of cultural industries provide opportunities to broaden international business theories in four research themes i e internationalization strategy cross border innovation social inclusion in the global economy and emerging market research

social security and the retirement decision the effect of social security and private pensions on individual retirement decisions is modeled relaxing in turn three commonly maintained assumptions perfect capital markets actuarial fairness and certain lifetimes which together imply that there is no effect in each case raising the contribution level can cause systematic changes of either sign in general in individual retirement decisions for social security the effects associated with forced saving and deviations from actuarial fairness probably tend to advance retirement but those effects that arise solely from the insurance aspect of social security and private pensions are ambiguous in sign owing to the presence of a substitution effect that tends to delay retirement because the insurance benefits can be fully realized only by working longer

bridge jobs and partial retirement the job stopping process of older workers often includes some combination of postcareer bridge employment partial retirement and reverse retirement fewer than two fifths of household heads retire directly from career jobs over half partially retire at some point in their working lives and a quarter reenter the labor force after initially retiring in addition postcareer employment is frequently located outside the industry and occupation of the career job and there are important differences in postcareer labor force experiences by gender permanent income and career job pension status

public pension programmes and the retirement of married couples in denmark in this paper we study the economic determinants of the joint retirement process of married couples we propose a tractable dynamic discrete choice model for retirement decisions which allows for non trivial saving behaviour we estimate the model on a 1 sample of danish couples of potential retirement age drawn from a population based administrative register the introduction and subsequent reforms of a publicly financed early retirement programme provide us with variation in the data to insure identification of the parameters of interest the elasticities of participation retirement with respect to income flows our estimates imply a significant asymmetry in the sensitivity of retirement behaviour of men and women with respect to variation in their own or their spouse s income flows

is everything neutral in his well known analysis of the national debt robert barro introduced the notion of a dynastic family this notion has since become a standard research tool particularly in the areas of public finance and macroeconomics in this paper we critique the assumptions on which the dynastic model is predicated and argue that this framework is not a suitable abstraction in contexts in which the objective is to analyze the effects of public policies we reach this conclusion by formally considering a world in which each generation consists of a large number of distinct individuals as opposed to one representative individual we point out that family linkages form complex networks in which each individual may belong to many dynastic groupings the resulting proliferation of linkages between families gives rise to a host of neutrality results including the irrelevance of all public redistributions distortionary taxes and prices since these results are not at all descriptive of the real world we conclude

time inconsistency and welfare program participation evidence from the nlsy we empirically implement a dynamic structural model of labor supply and welfare program participation for agents with potentially time inconsistent preferences using panel data on the choices of single women with children from the nlsy 1979 we provide estimates of the degree of time inconsistency and of its influence on the welfare take up decision with these estimates we conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify the utility loss stemming from the inability to commit to future decisions and the potential utility gains from commitment mechanisms such as welfare time limits and work requirements

health insurance and retirement of married couples summary most health insurance in the usa is provided by employers until eligibility for public health insurance medicare begins at age 65 retiring before 65 exposes workers who lack retiree health insurance coverage to the risk of catastrophic medical expenditure we solve and estimate a dynamic model of the employment behavior of older married couples that includes risky medical expenditure and health insurance parameter estimates imply that the risk reducing feature of health insurance can account for about half of the observed association between retiree health insurance and employment for married men but can account for only one tenth of the much larger observed association for married women policy simulations imply very small effects on employment of changing the age of eligibility for medicare from 65 to 67 copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

refraining from imitation professional resistance and limited diffusion in a financial market why do some practices not spread although this is an important question for both diffusion theorists and those interested in institutional change we know surprisingly little about the limitations on diffusion because most diffusion studies sample on successful diffusion i address the question of why some practices fail to spread by introducing the concept of a deviance discount a deviance discount is a systematic downgrading of the observed adoption performance of controversial practices which limits the contagion of such practices i test and find qualitative and quantitative support for my thesis in the product introduction behavior of swedish mutual fund firms my findings hold implications for diffusion theory and theories of endogenous institutional change

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

health insurance availability and the retirement decision because individuals aged 55 64 face large and uncertain medical expenditures without the guarantee of public insurance coverage provided by medicare the availability of post retirement health insurance could be an important determinant in the retirement decisions of this group we investigate the effect of health insurance on retirement by focusing on state and federal continuation of coverage mandates which grant the retiree the right to continue purchasing health insurance through a previous employer for a specified number of months after leaving the firm we exploit variation in the timing and generosity of these laws to identify the effect of the availability of continuation coverage on retirement decisions using data on 55 64 year old males from the current population survey and the survey of income and program participation we find a sizeable and significant effect of continuation coverage on retirement one year of mandated continuation benefits raises retirement rates by 20 the effect appears to be uniform at all ages rather that larger near the age of medicare eligibility there is also a large increase in the insurance coverage of individuals who would have retired in the absence of continuation benefits our findings have important implications for policies which change the insurance coverage of early retirees such as national health insurance this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was b this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

tied wage hours offers and the endogeneity of wages in the standard model of labor supply each worker is a price taker where the relevant price is an hourly wage rate which is fixed in the short run and which does not depend upon the number of hours supplied with this basic assumption the wage can be regarded as exogenous for the purpose of estimating a labor supply function this paper proposes and implements a pair of tests for the exogeneity of wages in a longitudinal labor supply model and for the particular failure of exogeneity associated with jobs that offer wage hour packages the first test is very simple it amounts to a test of whether hours granger cause wages at the individual level the second test involves a simultaneous estimation of labor supply and wage offer equations both tests indicate that the offered wage is related to hours worked though the offer locus is for this sample very flat the principal conclusion is that labor supply equations cannot properly be estimated in isolation from the process generating wages even when long time series are available on a sample of individuals this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

disability capacity for work and the business cycle an international perspective important policy issues arise from the high and growing number of people claiming disability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work in oecd countries economic conditions play an important part in explaining both the stock of disability benefit claimants and inflows to and outflows from that stock employing a variety of cross country and country specific household panel data sets as well as administrative data we find strong evidence that local variations in unemployment have an important explanatory role for disability benefit receipt with higher total enrolments lower outflows from rolls and often higher inflows into disability rolls in regions and periods of above average unemployment in understanding the nature of the cyclical fluctuations and trends in disability it is important to distinguish between work disability and health disability the former is likely to be influenced by economic conditions and welfare programmes while the latter evolves in a slower fashion with medical technology and demographic changes there is little evidence of health disability being related to the business cycle so cyclical variations are driven by work disability the rise in unemployment due to the current global economic crisis is expected to increase the number of disability insurance claimants

when market information constitutes fields sensemaking of markets in the commercial music industry in this paper we outline a key mechanism through which organizational fields are constituted we suggest that in competitive fields the market serves as a magnet around which groups of actors consolidate and that cognition of markets occurs through the creation distribution and interpretation of a web of information about the market to illustrate our theory we present a case study of thebillboard music chart from the commercial music industry to show that changes in either scope methodology or political tone with which market information is presented can provide a major jolt to the participants understanding of their field

do changes in pension incentives affect retirement a longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations this paper investigates the responsiveness of individuals retirement decisions to forward looking measures of pension accumulations in contrast to previous research we use within person variation in retirement incentives and are able to control for unobserved heterogeneity in tastes for retirement by studying a panel of subjective retirement expectations we confirm that individuals do respond as expected to pension incentives even when we control for individual fixed effects however the magnitude of these responses differs when estimated from models based on within person versus cross sectional variation the inclusion of fixed effects reduces the response by about half

the effect of social security on labor supply a cohort analysis of the notch generation this article uses aggregate birth year calendar year level data derived from the current population survey cps to estimate the effect of social security wealth on the labor supply of older men in the 1970s and 1980s the analysis focuses on measuring the impact of the 1977 amendments to the social security act which created a substantial unanticipated reduction in social security wealth for individuals born after 1916 this differential in benefits has become known as the benefit notch results indicate that labor supply continued to decline for the notch babies who received lower social security benefits than earlier cohorts

the health and earnings of rejected disability insurance applicants applicants for social security disability benefits who fail to pass the medical screening form a natural control group for beneficiaries data drawn from the 1972 and 1978 surveys of the disabled done for the social security administration show that fewer than 50 percent of rejected male applicants work typical earnings of those that do are less than 59 percent of median earnings for other men their age these data cast doubt on recent econometric work that suggests that the disincentive effects of the social security disability program have been substantial copyright 1989 by american economic association

a life cycle model of health and retirement the case of swedish pension reform abstract sweden is one of the few western economies to have undertaken a large pension reform in recent years this was done with great expectations but little formal analysis in this paper we develop a life cycle labor supply model to quantify the predicted labor supply implications of this reform in our framework individuals choose when to stop working and given eligibility criteria when if to apply for disability and pension benefits agents are heterogeneous in skills and receive exogenous shocks to health throughout their life we find that the new pension system creates large incentives for the continued employment of older workers this is promising news for countries grappling with pension reform and indicates that there are significant lessons to be learned from the swedish case

health insurance and the labor supply decisions of older workers evidence from a u s department of veterans affairs expansion this paper exploits a major mid 1990s expansion in the u s department of veterans affairs health care system to provide evidence on the labor market effects of expanding health insurance availability using data from the current population survey we employ a difference in differences strategy to compare the labor market behavior of older veterans and non veterans before and after the va health benefits expansion to test the impact of public health insurance on labor supply we find that older workers are significantly more likely to decrease work both on the extensive and intensive margins after receiving access to non employer based insurance workers with some college education or a college degree are more likely to transition into self employment a result consistent with job lock effects however less educated workers are more likely to leave self employment a result suggesting that the positive income effect from receiving public insurance dominates the job lock effect for these workers some relatively disadvantaged sub populations may also increase their labor supply after gaining greater access to public insurance consistent with complementary positive health effects of health care access or decreased work disincentives for these groups we conclude that this reform has affected employment and retirement decisions and suggest that future moves toward universal coverage or expansions of medicare are likely to have significant labor market effects

the mortality effects of retirement evidence from social security eligibility at age 62 abstract social security eligibility begins at age 62 and approximately one third of americans immediately claim at that age we examine whether age 62 is associated with a discontinuous change in aggregate mortality a key measure of population health using mortality data that covers the entire u s population and includes exact dates of birth and death we document a robust two percent increase in male mortality immediately after age 62 the change in female mortality is smaller and imprecisely estimated additional analysis suggests that the increase in male mortality is connected to retirement from the labor force and associated lifestyle changes

can social security explain trends in labor force participation of older men in the united states after a long decline the labor force participation rate lfpr of older men in the united states leveled off in the 1980s and began to increase in the late 1990s we examine how changes in social security rules affected these trends we attribute only a small portion of the decline from the 1960s 80s to the increasing generosity of social security over this period increases in the full retirement age and the delayed retirement credit explain one quarter to one half of the recent increase in the lfpr increasing educational attainment and increasing lfpr of married women also contributed to the recent rise

social security liquidity and early retirement abstract this paper investigates the effect of social security on retirement decisions it argues that it is important to take realistic account of how recipients evaluate potential benefit flows the paper presents a simple retirement model in which liquidity constraints prompt individuals to use higher than market discount rates in evaluating future pension benefits as a consequence even an apparently actuarially fair early retirement benefit could on average discourage continued work using data on individual retirement decisions i find support for the argument that this phenomenon contributes to some of the observed increase in early retirement

labor force dynamics of older men this paper describes and analyzes movements of older men among labor force states in the united states using quarterly observations derived from the retirement history survey rhs the results indicate substantial undercounts in the biannual data indicating that the prevalence of labor force movements at older ages has been underestimated previously the results show that labor force dynamics at older ages are important including duration and spell occurrence dependence and work experience effects these effects are robust to nonparametric controls for unobserved heterogeneity the estimates indicate that social security benefits have strong effects on the timing of labor force transitions at older ages but that changes in social security benefit levels over time have not contributed much to the trend toward earlier labor force exit excerpt

dynamic random utility modeling a monte carlo analysis applied studies of commercial fishing have largely ignored the intertemporal aspects of repeated site choices for many fisheries fishermen might choose a dynamically optimal cruise trajectory rather than myopic day to day strategies and a model that ignores these considerations will likely lead to biased parameter estimates and poor policy guidance a dynamic random utility model is developed that utilizes the same information as static site choice models but is entrenched in the principles of dynamic optimization using monte carlo analysis we evaluate the performance of this estimator as compared to the static model for a variety of simulated fishery types

social security reform and intertemporal smoothing abstract this paper examines the welfare and distributional impact of switching from a defined benefit pension system like social security to a defined contribution system of personal retirement accounts pras while such a switch would do away with the transfers that low wage workers receive through social security it would have the benefit of reducing labor supply distortions moreover a particular kind of pra suggested in this paper one that has very low or zero contribution rates early in life substantially enhances life cycle patterns of consumption and labor supply by making more resources available to credit constrained young workers simulations of a life cycle model show that in welfare terms these pras significantly outperform conventional pras because of this enhanced intertemporal smoothing

adverse selection in the annuities market and the impact of privatizing social security the observation that few americans purchase life annuities has often been attributed to adverse selection a still unanswered question is whether observable price increases caused by adverse selection can be generated endogenously in a life cycle model this paper calibrates a pure life cycle model for a characteristic us cohort and reproduces three stylized facts adverse selection increases annuity prices by 7 10 percent the cost of adverse selection rises with the age of the annuitant and the cost is smaller for females than for males social security privatization could reduce annuity prices by between 2 and 3 percent

consumption retirement and social security evaluating the efficiency of reform that encourages longer careers abstract this paper proposes and analyzes a social security reform in which individuals no longer face the oasi payroll tax after say age 54 or a career of 34 years and their subsequent earnings have no bearing on their benefits we first estimate parameters of a life cycle model our specification includes non separable preferences and possible disability it predicts a consumption expenditure change at retirement we use the magnitude of the expenditure change together with households retirement age decisions to identify key structural parameters the estimated magnitude of the change in consumption expenditure depends importantly on the treatment of consumption by adult children of the household simulations indicate that the reform could increase retirement ages one year or more equivalent variations could average more than 4000 per household and income tax revenues per household could increase by more than 14 000

rational majoritarian taxation of the rich with increasing returns and capital accumulation in the united states political setting of 1993 the dominant majority coalition effectively excluded high income recipients the rich from participation in fiscal decisions and sought to increase the differentially high taxation of members of this group under a rhetoric of fair shares this realworld fiscal environment motivates our analysis in this paper we address the question what rate of taxation should the political majority rationally impose on high income recipients if this majority is motivated strictly in the interest of its members we shall use highly abstracted models of the political economy that incorporate several simplifying assumptions we suggest however that the results attained are relevant for the decision calculus of the leaders of the majority coalition and in particular we suggest that the possible presence of generalized or economy wide increasing returns along with saving and the accumulation of capital make such decision calculus more difficult than that which would be implied in modern normative tax analysis that may involve maximization of a specific social welfare function more specifically our analysis indicates that the rational fiscal exploitation of the rich may involve lower tax extraction than orthodox fiscal theory would suggest or in summary terms the middle and low income members of the dominating majority may secure both more fiscal gains as well as non fiscal benefits from the income producing behavior of the rich than is recognized in the traditional analyses and these benefits should be taken into account in any comprehensive reckoning one implication involves the strengthening of the case for expenditure based taxation even from the perspective of members of non saving classes we shall proceed as follows we shall first in section ii summarize the straightforward response to the question posed in a simple model that assumes all income is derived from current labor supply and that the economy operates under universalized constant returns in section iii the constant returns assumption is replaced by one of generalized increasing returns a central contribution in the paper is that of tracing out the effects of this change in the model in sec

the 1983 social security reforms and labor supply adjustments of older individuals in the long run a structural life cycle retirement model with an improved specification over previous models is used to analyze and compare the long run effects on the labor supply of older workers of the 1983 social security reforms the effects of separate provisions from the 1983 amendments are examined these include the raising of the normal retirement age to 67 the increase in the delayed retirement credit to 8 and the lowering of the reduction rate for earnings over the test amount to 1 00 for every 3 00 of earnings

a structural retirement model the life cycle model analyzed here constrains most work on the main job to be full time partial retirement entails a wage reduction and frequently a job change maximum likelihood estimates of utility function parameters are designed to incorporate information on the age of leaving full time work and the age of full retirement the model closely tracks retirement behavior including peaks in retirement activity at 62 and 65 the paper explores the relation of these peaks to nonlinearities in the budget constraint created by various retirement programs policy analyses based on this and on earlier models with simpler structures are compared the retirement choice is one of the more prominent manifestations of life cycle behavior the decision is the result of an interplay between an individual s preferences and a set of incentives which change in complicated ways as the individual progresses through his or her late 50 s and 60 s the purpose of this study is to formulate and estimate a structural model which incorporates in a fundamental way this interplay between lifetime preferences and incentives and to illustrate how such a model may be used to investigate retirement behavior a structural model of this type is essential for analyzing potential policy changes which can be expected to affect incentives in varying ways over a number of years in the life cycle the current study incorporates two structural features which have frequently been omitted from previous studies first the model requires that an individual who wishes to reduce work effort below full time must accept a reduced hourly wage rate in order to do so this reflects empirical evidence from micro data sets which indicates that around one third of older individuals engage in part time work at one time or another and that regardless of whether or not these older workers change jobs to obtain part time work they usually take wage cuts as compared to their previous full time work 2 the fact that an individual is willing to accept a lower wage rate in return for the opportunity to work fewer than full time hours contains important information about the preferences of the

the sensitivity of tests of the intertemporal allocation of consumption to near rational alternatives suppose a consumer sets consumption equal to income each period rather than following the optimal permanent income decision rule how much utility does he lose this paper finds that the answer is typically less than 10 cents 1 per quarter in environments specified by popular tests on aggregate data it includes calculations of the costs of excess sensitivity and excess smoothness to income and interest rate changes and the costs of ignoring information it concludes that the theory does not make predictions for aggregate tests that are robust to small costs such as information or transactions copyright 1989 by american economic association

how social security and medicare affect retirement behavior in a world of incomplete markets this paper provides an empirical analysis of how the u s social security and medicare insurance system affect the labor supply of older males in the presence of incomplete markets for loans annuities and health insurance we estimate a detailed dynamic programming dp model of the joint labor supply and social security acceptance decision focusing on a sample of males in the low to middle income brackets whose only pension is social security the dp model delivers a rich set of predictions about the dynamics of retirement behavior and comparisons of actual vs predicted behavior show that the dp model is able to account for wide variety of phenomena observed in the data including the pronounced peaks in the distribution of retirement ages at 62 and 65 the ages of early and normal eligibility for social security benefits respectively we identify a significant fraction of health insurance constrained individuals who have no form of retiree health insurance other than medicare and who can only obtain fairly priced private health insurance via their employer s group health plan the combination of significant individual risk aversion and a long tailed pareto distribution of health care expenditures implies that there is a significant security value for these individuals to remain employed until they are eligible for medicare coverage at age 65 overall our model suggests that a number of heretofore puzzling aspects of retirement behavior can be viewed as artifacts of particular details of the social security rules whose incentive effects are especially strong for lower income individuals and those who do not have access to fairly priced loans annuities and health insurance

back to work expectations and realizations of work after retirement this paper analyzes a puzzling aspect of retirement behavior known as unretirement nearly 50 percent of retirees follow a nontraditional retirement path that involves partial retirement or unretirement and at least 26 percent of retirees later unretire i explore two possible explanations 1 unretirement transitions result from failures in planning or financial shocks and 2 unretirement transitions are anticipated prior to retirement reflecting a more complex retirement process i show that unretirement was anticipated for the vast majority of those returning to work and is not a result of financial shocks poor planning or low wealth accumulation