the impact of foreign capital inflows on domestic savings reexamined the case of argentina abstract since the beginning of the 1970 s several economists have argued that there is a negative relationship between foreign capital inflows f and domestic savings s this paper attempts to demonstrate that the framework used by these authors is not appropriate to analyze the impact of f on s the early empirical results may actually be a consequence of exogenous factors such as monetary and fiscal policies

implications of economic interdependence for endogenous wage indexation decisions this paper shows how economic interdependence affects the indexation decisions of atomistic wage setters in an environment in which monetary authorities do not observe stochastic disturbances before making their policy choices if stochastic disturbances are common across countries interdependence has no effect on equilibrium indexation choices in identical countries however if disturbances are country specific numerical simulations show that interdependence is likely to reduce equilibrium indexation choices relative to a small open economy we also show that indexation choices may be either strategic complements or strategic substitutes but that strategic complementarity becomes more likely as the degree of interdependence rises

temporary import and export quotas and the current account abstract this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of temporary import and export quotas in a two period optimization model imposing much weaker restrictions on preferences and production technologies than in the existing literature we demonstrate that under net substitutability the imposition of a temporary quota which reduces imports by a small amount improves the current account and causes an appreciation of the real exchange rate if the initial equilibrium is quota restricted the effects of tightening the quota are ambiguous by contrast under substitutability a tightening of export quotas necessarily leads to a current account deficit regardless of the nature of the initial equilibrium

electric power sector reform liberalization models and electric power prices in developing countries an empirical analysis using international panel data this study aims to clarify whether the effects of electric power sector reforms should be different either across regions or between developing and developed countries an empirical model was analyzed to observe the impact of electric power prices on the selection of a liberalization model in the power sector this was achieved by the use of an ordered response fixed effect and a random effect model an instrument variable technique was also used to estimate the impact of the liberalization model on the electric power price this technique addressed the problems of simultaneity bias between the electric power price and the liberalization models selected these econometric models were designed using panel data from 78 countries in four regions developed countries asian developing countries the former soviet union and eastern europe and latin america for the period from 1985 to 2003 the research findings suggest that higher electricity prices are one of the driving forces for governments to adopt liberalization models however the development of liberalization models in the power sector does not necessarily reduce electricity prices in fact contrary to expectations there was a tendency for the price to rise in every market modeled

foreign borrowing and macroeconomic adjustment to external shocks abstract this paper analyzes the impact of anticipated and unanticipated external shocks on the evolution of macroeconomic variables particularly foreign borrowing and on steady state stocks of capital and debt we find that the desired mode of adjustment to a shock is highly sensitive to its nature intertemporal substitution effects often dominate the pure wealth loss effect external disturbances will typically be intertemporally correlated in the real world the paper analyses the resulting implications for the dynamic smoothing of adjustment

exchange rate policies and endogenous time preference a dynamic analysis of a small open economy abstract the effects of exchange rate policies are examined for a small open economy with endogenous rate of time preference using optimizing framework and introducing money into the utility function it is shown that a depreciation of the domestic currency generates a surplus in the current account it also leads to an increase in consumption and a decrease in the holdings of real balances in the long run

carbon tax or emissions trading an analysis of economic and political feasibility of policy mechanisms for greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the mexican power sector this study provides a comparative assessment of carbon pricing instruments for the mexican electricity sector contrasting a carbon tax with an emissions trading scheme ets the assessment is per

terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade there is a harberger laursen metzler effect abstract according to the harberger laursen metzler hlm effect an exogenous increase in the terms of trade faced by a small open economy leads to an improvement in that country s trade balance in this paper structural vector autoregression techniques are used to investigate whether there is any systematic pattern in the responses of the trade balance to terms of trade shocks for a large number of small open economies two important results emerge first there is strong support in the data for the existence of an hlm effect second the response of the trade balance and real income to a terms of trade shock implied by the structural vector autoregression model are strongly consistent with those reported by mendoza 1995 from simulating a particular dynamic stochastic equilibrium model of a small open economy

tariffs real exchange rates and the trade balance in a two country world abstract an intertemporal model of a two country world in which optimizing agents consume three goods importables exportables and nontradables is developed to investigate a tariffs effects on real interest rates real exchange rates and the trade balance real interest rates and real exchange rates are shown to move asymmetrically across countries in response to a temporary tariff we also show that in contrast to the findings of two tradable good models a temporary tariff may actually worsen the trade balance of both deficit and surplus countries even when there are no cross country differences in tastes

deviations from purchasing power parity and capital flows abstract this article examines the implications of deviations from purchasing power parity ppp for an investor s portfolio decision and the consequent capital flows in a two country intertemporal model with complete financial markets in the presence of deviations form ppp investors from different nations hold disparate portfolios and the equilibrium that results is not a pooling one we solve eplicitly for asset demands and derive the relationship between the direction of capital flows and deviations from ppp in contrast to the small country assumption in the existing literature the world interest rate in this model is determined endogenously

inflationary finance in an open economy abstract models of inflationary finance that consider trade and capital flows generally conclude that openness curtails the ability of governments to impose the inflation tax due to currency substitution this paper models two channels that allow central banks to increase inflation tax revenue by opening the economy first central banks can open the capital account subject to a reserve requirement on capital inflows revenue maximization produces a smaller reserve requirement on foreign capital inflows that on domestic deposits second central banks can impose prior import deposits to broaden the monetary base in order to use the inflation tax on imports as an alternative to tariff revenue

income effect wealth effect and the terms of trade with finite horizons the two sector model is incorporated into blanchard s olg framework the total effect of a terms of trade deterioration on aggregate savings is decomposed into an income effect and a wealth effect the income effect comes about because a terms of trade deterioration changes the value of the gdp its sign depends on the value of the rate of time preference relative to the interest rate the wealth effect comes about because financial wealth is insurable and so income from capital is discounted at a lower rate than labor income its sign depends on the relative factor intensities of the goods

the determinants of private saving in india abstract this paper examines the determinants of private saving in the process of economic development in the light of the indian experience it is found that the saving rate rises with both the level and the rate of growth of disposable income the real interest rate on bank deposits has a significant positive impact but the magnitude of the impact is modest public saving seems to crowd out private saving but less than proportionately furthermore the spread of banking facilities in the economy and the inflation rate have a positive impact and changes in the external terms of trade a negative impact on private saving

capital mobility and the current account abstract this paper analyzes the effect of unanticipated changes in the terms of trade on consumption expenditures and the current account in a small open economy simple formulas are obtained for the covariances of changes in consumption expenditures the current account and the expected current account with changes in the terms of trade it is shown that if investment is uncorrelated with the terms of trade a necessary condition for unanticipated changes in the terms of trade to be correlated with changes in consumption expenditures and the expected current account is that the real expected return on foreign bonds differs from the real expected return on domestic bonds

terms of trade dynamics in asia an analysis of national saving and domestic investment responses to terms of trade changes in 14 asian ldcs abstract i estimate a three equation model of savings investment and growth on pooled time series data for 14 asian developing countries to explore terms of trade dynamic effects on the current account a terms of trade deterioration lowers aggregate saving and raises investment in the current year it also exerts a positive lagged effect on investment due to the unanticipated temporary nature of the terms of trade change the current account oscillates before returning gradually to its steady state level the model explains 65 per cent of the variance in the sample countries current accounts over the period 1962 1983

nominal wage flexibility wage indexation and monetary union membership in a monetary union implies stronger incentives for nominal wage flexibility in the form of wage indexation and shorter contract length than non membership this counteracts the stabilisation policy cost of giving up monetary independence but more wage flexibility is only an imperfect substitute for an individual monetary policy it is possible that an increase in wage flexibility is welfare decreasing because of the accompanying rise in price variability the interaction between wage setting and central bank behaviour may result in either multiple equilibria or a unique full indexation equilibrium

the welfare effects of trade and capital market liberalization treatise on the welfare effects of trade and capital market liberalization consquenses of the capital account liberalization in the presence of trade restrictions specifies on the liberalization of trade in the presence of foreign borrowing constraints proves superiority of gradual liberalization of trade to an abrupt liberalization

hyperbolic discounting and the phillips curve using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model we show that the interaction of staggered nominal contracts with hyperbolic discounting leads to inflation having significant long run effects on real variables

the role of exchange rate for current account a panel data analysis abstract the goal of this paper is to address the role of the real effective exchange rate fundamentals misalignment and volatility for the current account using a panel data analysis for a set of 58 countries over the period of 1994 2014 the results suggest that exchange rate misalignment is relevant for current account adjustment where countries with a more appreciated depreciated exchange rate face a worse better current account performance regarding the role of other control variables current account adjustment is affected by the savings rate where higher lower values are associated with better worse current account performance corroborating the lessons from the consumption smoothing approach there is also evidence of a positive effect for the lagged current account persistence effect for emerging and less developed countries there is evidence of a significant role played by monetary independence where more less monetary independence is associated with better worse current account performance

the effect of government spending on the current account output and expenditures evidence from latin america abstract this paper examines the linkages between government expenditures and current account balances in several latin american economies over the period 1974 1984 in theory these linkages critically depend on private sector responses to changes in government expenditures on both the demand and supply sides the analysis provides evidence that the negative current account government expenditure linkage is much stronger in the event of a temporary shock to government expenditures than in the event of a permanent shock the source of this differential response appears to be primarily on the expenditure side suggesting that private sectors in latin america incorporate the present discounted value rather than simply the current value of government expenditures into their expenditure decisions

terms of trade shock and the current account in a monetary economy over the period 1973 81 the terms of trade of non oil developing countries deteriorated at about 2 per cent per annum this was accompanied by an increase in current account deficits in excess of 3 per cent above what they had been in the previous decade see khan and knight 1983 for a discussion these authors find the terms of trade shocks the major cause of the deficits this has led to a renewal of interest in the effects of changes in terms of trade for a small open economy the conventional wisdom first put forward by laursen and metzler 1950 and harberger 1950 emphasized the fact that a terms of trade worsening lowered real income which in turn lowered savings and worsened the current account the laursen metzler effect the recent reappraisal was initiated by obstfeld 1982 he showed in an infinite horizon optimizing framework with perfect capital mobilizing that if the discount rate was a function of the level of utility surpluses and not deficits accompany an unanticipated and permanent terms of trade worsening the long run level of the discount rate is tied down by the given world rate of interest this in turn fixes the long run level of utility the terms of trade shock tends to lower the level of utility and agents save to offset this across steady states there is only a substitution effect on the other hand if the discount rate is fixed and equal to the world interest rate then the economy adjusts to the terms of trade shock by immediately lowering real expenditure by the same amount as the decline in real income so that the current account is always balanced svensson and razin 1983 showed that in a two period framework this does not necessarily happen for the infinite horizon case they showed that if preferences were separable over time and the discount rate was increasing in instantaneous utility then obstfeld s results were indeed obtained in a two period overlapping generations model the results could be modified owing to the fact that human wealth and non human wealth are not perfect substitutes and a terms of trade shock affects these differently see matsuyama 1988 for a discussion but it is still true that an unanticipated permanent terms of trade shock has a one shot effect on the current account unless some ad hoc costs of adjustment are introduced see e g persson and svensson 1985 and matsuyama 1988 the uncertain lifetime model see e g frenkel and razin 1988 and matsuyama 1987 generates non trivial

a stochastic monopsony theory of the business cycle two distinct regimes contractions and expansions are generated in a model in which goods markets clear and all individuals are optimizing strict wage and price takers have fully rational expectations and are heterogeneous in both preferences and resource endowments involuntary unemployment asymmetric monetary policy effectiveness and a changing relationship between real wages and employment over the business cycle are the result of optimizing behavior by monopsonistic wage setting and price taking firms faced with price uncertainty an upward sloped supply of employees and efficiency wage behavior disequilibrium and involuntary unemployment can occur at the level of the individual firm s labor market jel e32 e52 j41 j42 i introduction for many economists three stylized facts are central to any plausible theory of the business cycle 1 friedman and schwartz 1963 and romer and romer 1994 concluded that monetary shocks have output employment and unemployment effects at least some of the time and such effects are asymmetric with respect to the state of the economy 2 unemployment is subject to fluctuations associated with recessions and expansions and in some recessions has been very high 1 3 the relationship between real wages and employment appears to be time period sensitive as reported by abraham and haltiwanger 1995 although first proposed by keynes modern economists such as benassy 2002 argue that at least some unemployment is best characterized as involuntary and indicates a state of disequilibrium in this article we consider a plausible alternative to disequilibrium explanations of these elements of the business cycle based on goods market imperfections such as those by benassy 2002 and dixon and rankin 1995 who considered monopoly power by firms in the goods market and benassy 1995 who assumed monopoly power by unions in the labor market we assume that the goods market is characterized by competitive market clearing but firms have some monopsony power as reflected in an upward sloped or bounded supply of labor to the firm and the ability to set the optimal wage before knowing the price they will receive for their output which is assumed to be stochastic and making their employment decision these modifications are embedded in an otherwise conventional general equilibrium model in which all agents firms and consumers workers capitalists are fully optimizing and form totally rational expectations and labor may exhibit efficiency wage behavior 2 this is not a representative agent model and cannot be reduced to such individuals are heterogeneous in both their endowments and preferences firms may be heterogeneous with respect to their production technology and the interests of firm owners are distinct from those of their employees the latter is essential to generate the changing regimes that produce predictions that correspond to the stylized facts monetary shocks affect output prices employment and unemployment in an asymmetrical manner consistent with the traditional business cycle the key to understanding these effects is the labor market if the expected quantity of money is generated then the competitive market clearing real wage will result lower than expected quantities of money generate a deficiency of aggregate demand lower than expected output prices and real wages above the competitive wage real wages above the competitive wage are associated with excess supply of labor and involuntary unemployment independent of that associated with efficiency wage behavior this contractionary regime will persist as long as the low quantities of money persist even though all agents have fully rational expectations are optimizing and the goods market clears in this regime increases in the quantity of money increase prices employment and output and employment varies negatively with the real wage efficiency wage behavior may decrease effort as the real wage rate is decreased

critical debt and debt dynamics we study the debt dynamics and sustainable debt for an open economy which borrows from abroad in order to nance consumption to service the debt the country may exploit a renewable resource we show that there is for every resource stock r a critical level bh r of debt above which debt tends to in nity but below which it may be steered to zero we demonstrate how to compute bh r using an ode of steepest descent if the economy maximizes a discounted integral of utility depending on consumption and the resource stock the critical debt bh r may be reached in nite time in such a situation slight perturbations of the optimal consumption lead to insolvency the maximum principle ceases to be valid in this case 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classixcation c61 f32 f34 o16

aggregate demand shocks private signals and employment variability can better information be harmful abstract the consequences of private information concerning the realization of aggregate demand shocks are investigated in the context of a standard macroeconomic model it is found that an improvement in information quality can be damaging in the sense of amplifying employment fluctuations the source of this result is an externality arising from individual firm wage decisions which leads to a collective over reaction to private information

exchange rate pass through openness and the sacrifice ratio abstract considerable recent work has reached mixed conclusions about whether and how globalization affects the inflation output trade off and suggests that the ultimate effect of openness on the output inflation relationship is influenced by a variety of factors in this paper we consider the impact of exchange rate pass through and examine how pass through conditions the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio we develop a simple theoretical model showing how the extent of both pass through and openness can interact to influence the output inflation relationship next we empirically explore the nature of these two variables and their interaction results indicate that greater pass through increases the sacrifice ratio that there is statistically significant interaction between pass through and openness and once the extent of pass through is taken into account alongside other factors that affect the sacrifice ratio such as central bank independence openness fails to exert an empirically robust effect on the sacrifice ratio

current account dynamics and the terms of trade harberger laursen metzler two generations later this is a study of the current account dynamics resulting from the savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy which is subject to exogenous changes in its terms of trade and in world interest rates anticipated and unanticipated as well as temporary and permanent terms of trade changes have very different effects there is however a general tendency towards cycles in both savings and investment which gives rise to cycles in the current account it is shown that the classic harberger laursen metzler effect on saving of a terms of trade deterioration can have any sign for plausible parameter values both for temporary and permanent disturbances

the terms of trade and the current account the harberger laursen metzler effect the paper examines the effect of terms of trade changes on a small country s spending and current account assuming optimizing behavior in an intertemporal framework with perfect international capital mobility a temporary future terms of trade deterioration implies a deterioration improvement of the trade balance whereas a permanent terms of trade deterioration has an ambiguous effect depending on the rate of time preference nominal and real variables are considered via exact price indexes two periods and an infinite horizon are examined

transitory and permanent disturbances and the current account an empirical analysis in the intertemporal framework the intertemporal models of current account determination demonstrate that in the analysis of the current account balance of a country it is important to distinguish between transitory and permanent disturbances in income and relative prices this paper attempts to decompose the observed data on income and real exchange rate into transitory and permanent components and then uses the decomposed series to test the empirical validity of the predictions of the intertemporal models evidence from the united states and japan provide very limited support for the intertemporal models in terms of the effects of transitory and permanent changes in income on current account balance for both us and japan the study finds that permanent changes in real exchange rate have significant effects on the current account balance statistical tests find no evidence of hysteresis in the trading relations of the two countries

the dutch disease a disease after all many third world oil producers are encountering serious problems in building up a diversified export base while west european oil and gas producers netherlands united kingdom are suffering a decline in their traded goods manufacturing sector induced by real wage pressures it is becoming increasingly clear that high but temporary oil revenues may be somewhat ora mixed blessing the quip of the economist notwithstanding the mechanism behind this unbalance is clear enough part of the oil revenues is spent on non traded goods which leads to a real appreciation i e a rise in the relative price of non traded goods in terms of traded goods this in turn draws resources out of the non oil traded sector into the non traded goods producing sector corden and neary 1982 van wijnbergen 1980 one may say that this is an efficient response to the increase in income from oil production the united kingdom mexico egypt simply should move into oil derived industries and non traded goods and forget about their manufacturing sector until oil reserves are exhausted however many developing countries are hesitant to take this advice after all the post world war ii success stories in economic development involve without exception countries that promoted their traded goods sector aggressively moreover it is a well established stylised fact that technological progress is faster in the traded non sheltered sectors of an economy than in the non traded sector balassa 1964 is an early reference considering the hypothesis that technological progress rather than taking place exogenously with the passage of time is a function of accumulated experience the concern of countries like egypt mexico or indonesia is much easier to understand since solow 1957 and denison 1962 it is known that capital accumulation explain only a small part of economic growth if most of economic growth is caused by learning by doing induced technologica

life cycles oil cycles or financial reforms the growth in private savings rates in indonesia what goes steady with private savings this paper investigates reasons for the sustained growth in private savings in indonesia since 1970 in a period characterized by economic growth demographic

is equilibrium indexation efficient this paper investigates the welfare properties of equilibrium indexation in a decentralized economy if indexation is costless so all firms index then the equilibrium degree of indexation is efficient but if indexation is costly and this leads some firms not to index equilibrium indexation is inefficient because indexation has externalities for nonindexed firms firms choose too little indexation if labor demand is more responsive to movements in real money than to movements in real wages the results do not depend on the relative importance of real and nominal shocks

terms of trade shocks and optimal investment another look at the laursen metzler effect conventional analyses of the effect of terms of trade shocks provide a misleading view of their impact on investment and the current account because capital goods imports are excluded from the analytical framework the author argues that such an exclusion is both arbitrary and unrealistic the author reexamines the consequences of permanent and transitory changes in terms of trade in a rational expectations model of a small open economy with intertemporally optimizing agents and with trade in both consumption and capital goods in this framework the responses to a permanent terms of trade improvement in unambiguous the long run capital stock and thus investment must rise and the current account must deteriorate exactly the opposite of the laursen metzler effect a transitory improvement in the terms of trade raises saving but has an uncertain effect on investment so the impact on the current account is generally ambiguous and is shown to depend on three factors the import contents on consumption and investment the duration of the windfall and the degree of intertemporal substitutability in both consumption and investment

deterioration of the terms of trade and capital accumulation a reexamination of the laursen metzler effect abstract this paper analyzes the effect of both a permanent and a temporary deterioration in the terms of trade on a small open economy the model based on intertemporal optimization emphasizes the labor leisure choice and the role of capital accumulation the transitional dynamics is shown to depend upon the long run response of the capital stock to the terms of trade shock this consists of a negative substitution effect together with a positive income effect whether or not the laursen metzler effect holds depends upon whether the income effect dominates the substitution effect

trade in nominal assets and net international capital flows abstract nominal assets play a major role in international financial markets while trade in indexed bonds is limited as a result agents are exposed to both price and exchange rate uncertainty nonetheless previous research on net capital flows has assumed the presence of a risk free vehicle to intertemporal asset trade in this paper we develop a general equilibrium intertemporal model with trade limited to nominal bonds and equity we find that exposure to nominal risk dampens net capital flows thus making economies effectively more closed

marshallian recursive preferences and growth abstract although alfred marshall adhered to the classical doctrine of impatience he thought that the act of saving might itself confer utility we model this by making the discount factor a function of savings in addition to providing an intuitive rationale for increasing marginal impatience marshallian time preference has interesting implications for macroeconomics marshallian preferences lower interest rates by stimulating savings paradoxically it is possible for a tax cut to lower interest rates in a marshallian economy in a growth model with marshallian consumers a permanent increase in government expenditures causes super crowding out of consumption and reduces the steady state capital stock

cycles in deregulated electricity markets empirical evidence from two decades abstract in this article we discuss the cycle hypothesis in electricity generation which states that the introduction of deregulation in an electricity system might lead to sustained fluctuations of over and under capacity the occurrence of cycles is one of the major threats for electricity markets as it affects the security of supply and creates uncertainty in both the profitability of electricity companies and in consumer prices we discuss the background for these cycles using analogies with other capital intensive industries along with evidence from the analysis of behavioral simulation models as well as from experimental electricity markets using data from the oldest deregulated markets we find support for the hypothesis in the case of the english and chilean markets based on an autocorrelation analysis evidence from the nordpool market is more ambiguous although we might be observing the first half of a cycle in generation capacity comparing a simulation of the english market performed in 1992 with the actual performance we can observe that the qualitative behavior of the model is consistent with the actual evolution finally we discuss possible mechanisms for damping cycles in electricity generation such as mothballing capacity payments and reliability markets

the capital inflows problem revisited a stylized model of southern cone disinflation in the late 1970s countries in latin america s southern cone initiated attempts to lower domestic inflation rates through the progressive reduction of a preannounced rate of exchange rate devaluation the stabilization programs gave rise to massive capital inflows real exchange rate appreciation and current account deficits this paper develops a stylized intertemporal framework in which the effects of a credible preannounced disinflation scheme can be studied it is shown that even when agents have perfect foresight and markets clear continuously the capital inflows phenomenon and the associated real appreciation may result while unanticipated permanent inflation changes are neutral in the paper anticipated inflation is neutral only in exceptional circumstances a preannounced disinflation operates by altering the path of an expenditure based real domestic interest rate that depends on expected changes in the prices of liquidity services and nontradable consumption goods

tariffs interest rates and the trade balance in the world economy abstract a two commodity intertemporal framework is used to show that in contrast to the conventional wisdom both permanent and temporary tariffs may worsen the trade balance of a large country for a temporary tariff the key condition for this result is a low intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption when a temporary tariff worsens the trade balance the world real interest rate must fall if the tariff imposing country is running a deficit and rise if it is running a surplus temporary tariffs can only worsen the trade balance of a surplus country when international differences in tastes are important

can exchange rate variations or trade policy alter the equilibrium current account abstract paul krugman has pointed out that much work needs to be done before the intertemporal open economy model can replace the open economy is lm model as a guide to policy making the objective here is to take a step in this direction by examining if an exogenous increase in world demand for home goods as via trade policy can improve the equilibrium current account within an open economy intertemporal model in the process the paper explores the theoretical issue as to whether a variation in the real exchange rate can alter the difference between saving and investment the key idea is that uncovered interest parity plus some degree of mean reversion in the real exchange rate imply that a modern version of the laursen metzler harberger effect is operative the result is that a policy induced increase in the trade balance will alter the real exchange rate which in turn increases the difference between home saving and investment and thereby improves the equilibrium current account

socio technical analysis of the electricity sector of mexico its historical evolution and implications for a transition towards low carbon development abstract the electricity sector of mexico has been found itself in continuous transitions since its beginning in the 19th century however the historical reform to the sector that recently took place together with new energy market configurations around the globe may pose an important challenge to transitioning towards a low carbon sector the work presented here was aimed at understanding in a qualitative manner the complex interactions between the main social technical and environmental aspects that have guided the sector in the past their influence on the current structure and its future development through the application of the multi level perspective mlp with a governance and agency perspective additionally the work tried to elucidate the implications of the incumbent position of the natural gas industry and the possibilities for low carbon technologies the conclusions remark the importance of previous sector configurations in the present structure the important role of government in promoting low carbon technologies together with investment by market actors and the possible window of opportunity that the natural gas industry in mexico may provide to low carbon energy technologies

exchange rate mean reversion from real shocks within an intertemporal equilibrium model abstract the post bretton woods era has been characterized by real exchange rates that exhibit mean reversion with mixed evidence as to whether this reversion is partial ppp never holds or essentially complete this paper generates these stylized facts theoretically by synthesizing a simple intertemporal open economy model with the elasticities approach to the current account a central feature of the model is the existence of non traded goods the model can generate partial or approximately complete mean reversion for the real exchange rate depending on parameter values if innovations in output are made up of permanent and temporary components in addition temporary output shocks generate a type of hysteresis wherein the short run path for the exchange rate permanently alters its long run equilibrium value

demand changes and real exchange rate dynamics in a finite horizon model with sectoral adjustment costs author affiliation hung ju chen department of economics national taiwan university 21 hsu chow road taipei 100 taiwan e mail hjc ntu edu tw corresponding author chen min hsu department of economics national taiwan university 21 hsu chow road taipei 100 taiwan e mail chenmin ntu edu tw acknowledgment we would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by the program for globalization studies at the institute for advanced studies in humanities national taiwan university grant 95r0064 ah03 03 we wish to express our sincere appreciation for helpful comments and suggestions provided by two anonymous referees the editor of the journal joshua aizenman been lon chen ming chia li tsunao okumura and elias sanidas as well as participants at the 2007 annual conference of the asia pacific economic association and the 2007 conference of korea and the world economy we also thank ke shaw lian for his assistance any errors within the work are our responsibility 1 introductionalthough the traditional macroeconomic models tend to explain economic fluctuations by focusing solely on supply shocks given that equilibrium is determined by both demand and supply it would seem obvious that changes in demand may also have important effects in terms of their contribution to economic oscillations changes in demand can easily occur particularly for those small open economies for example small open economies can be easily disturbed by external shocks such as terms of trade shocks through international trade 1 another example is the reduction in the mortality rate as a result of higher health investment both public and private and better healthcare during the economic development 2 for export orientated growth economies in particular such as those of hong kong and taiwan changes in either the terms of trade or the mortality rate can significantly influence economic performance impacting the real exchange rate investment output savings and the current account the phenomenon that life expectancy is steadily lengthening for most developing countries has led to the emergence of a growing number of studies on the impact of population aging 3 since an increase in life expectancy will change the expectation of lifetime utility it will directly affect households inter temporal decisions with regard to consumption and savings however previous studies tend to analyze the impact of mortality decline in a closed economy or in a small open economy with exogenous and constant factor prices 4in order to study the impact of mortality rate changes on the economic performance in an open economy we use the overlapping generations model with uncertain lifetime developed by yaari 1965 and blanchard 1985 to examine household savings behavior within this model agents live with a finite lifetime such that different types of agents simultaneously live in the economy 5 furthermore we extend the blanchard type model to a three good open economy composed of exportable importable and non traded goods to allow us to consider the dynamics of the real exchange rate when demand changes capital production and accumulation are also incorporated into the framework to facilitate an examination of the investment behavior of firms we assume that the economy uses both capital and labor to produce exportable goods and non traded goods while importable goods are imported from abroad capital is produced by the non traded sector and installation costs are incurred when capital is transported to the exportable sector 6 as indicated by morshed and turnovsky 2004 the inclusion of the sectoral adjustment costs of capital can generate persistent deviations from the long run equilibrium by the real exchange rate in response to demand changes 7 because the real exchange rate is playing a dual role of a non traded goods price and a capital price we are able to study the impact of population aging and terms of trade shocks on international capital flows in a small open economy with endogenous factor prices

discretion wage indexation and inflation it is now well understood that discretionary policy making frequently leads to socially sub optimal outcomes this point was first made by kydland and prescott 12 using an example of a monetary policy game they argued that in the presence of output distortions in the economy the monetary authority has an incentive to renege on earlier promises to maintain price stability by expanding the money supply in order to create unexpected inflation thereby increasing output and employment since private wage setters form expectations rationally this policy action is anticipated and in equilibrium leads to excessive inflation without any resulting change in output or employment consequently in the absence of enforceable policy rules the time consistent discretionary monetary path produces a socially sub optimal inflation rate this form of policy behavior has important implications for the decisions of private agents such as their choice of the degree of wage indexation however most work in the literature on endogenous wage indexation stemming from the seminal paper by gray 10 has analyzed the equilibrium indexation choice assuming either a constant money growth rule 1 or a monetary rule involving lagged or contemporaneous feedback 8 17 only the recent papers by devereux 5 6 have attempted to examine the implications of time consistent discretionary monetary policy for endogenous wage indexation the informational structure he considers has the monetary authority setting the money stock prior to the realization of shocks so that the authority has no information regarding current period disturbances when determining its course of action this assumption precludes any contemporaneous attempt by the monetary authority to stabilize output or the price level devereux reaches the conclusion that wage setters who are aware of the authority s policy decision will find it optimal to index positively to unanticipated price level surprises since none of the aggregate shocks are offset directly by the monetary authority thus the informational environment confronting the authority influences the degree of indexation and subsequently the manner in which aggregate demand and supply variability impinge upon social welfare

openness the sacrifice ratio and inflation is there a puzzle abstract the standard time inconsistency based explanation for the negative correlation between openness and inflation requires an inverse relationship between the sacrifice ratio and openness but daniels et al 2005 openness central bank independence and the sacrifice ratio journal of money credit and banking 37 2 371 379 have provided evidence that controlling for central bank independence reveals a positive relationship this paper embeds the time inconsistency approach within a model of a multisector imperfectly competitive open economy in this setting greater openness raises the sacrifice ratio but reduces the inflation bias thus failure to observe an inverse relationship between openness and the sacrifice ratio does not necessarily imply that the time inconsistency approach is irrelevant to understanding the openness inflation relationship

stabilization with wage indexation and exchange rate flexibility abstract this survey examines the role of wage indexation and exchange rate policy in dampening fluctuations in output around its target level it is demonstrated that the appropriate choice for wage indexation and exchange rate flexibility is highly sensitive to the nature and the relative importance of the shocks impinging upon the economy as well as to the relevant parameters in the economy moreover the question of the desired flexibility of the exchange rate should be studied in the context of wage indexation and vice versa this interdependence raises the possibility of both policies being complements or substitutes to each other depending on the number of shocks that perturb the economy

trade policy adjustment in ldcs a short run view the article deals with the role of tariff protection and exchange rate policies in ldcs after a terms of trade shock has occurred and a new equilibrium is to be attained constraints concerning the domestic foreign and public sectors are specified it is shown that the optimal response to the shock depends on the domestic features of the economy as well as on its trade openness in particular protectionist attitudes may well be justified and anti trade policies may be helpful to ease adjustment

current account dynamics in a finite horizon model abstract this paper examines the response of the current account in a small open economy to a permanent change in the price of imported intermediate goods to do so it extends blanchard s 1985 open economy model to incorporate the capital stock with adjustment costs a la hayashi 1982 a price increase in imported intermediate goods can be viewed as a combination of transfer payments abroad and capital taxation the former effect leads to a current account deficit and the latter leads to a current account surplus the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of these effects

bargaining and wage resistance in an open macroeconomic model this paper develops a model of an open economy in which wages and employment are determined by bargaining between firms and unions it can be regarded as an extension of an earlier paper ellis and fender 1985 to an open economy this allows us to investigate a number of contemporary issues in particular we shall explore some aspects of wage resistance the tendency for nominal wages to rise so as to offset either partially or totally any rise in the aggregate price level empirical evidence on wage resistance has been produced by sachs i980 who also shows that the assumption of real as opposed to nominal wage rigidity reverses the conclusions about the relative efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy in the fleming mundell model a number of other papers have incorporated wage resistance sometimes due to wage indexation see for example gray 1976 for analysis in a closed economy context and marston i982 modigliani and padoa schioppa 1978 and eichengreen i983 for open economy models in all these papers however wage resistance is assumed rather than derived from more basic assumptions about agents behaviour however some work has appeared recently which attempts to endogenise wage resistance in a closed economy by modelling union employer bargaining see for example mcdonald and solow i98i and ellis and fender i985

exchange rate based disinflation wage rigidity and capital inflows real exchange rate appreciation usually accompanies stabilization programs based on the exchange rate one thing that causes the real exchange rate to appreciate is the capital inflows that follow liberalization of the capital account and the financial market capital inflows cause the exchange rate to appreciate in part because of the resulting increase in expenditures this appreciation is exacerbated if there is some price rigidity and if control of the money supply is only partial all these conditions existed during chile s experiment with exchange rate based disinflation between 1978 and 1981 simulating what might have been the authors study how exchange rate based disinflation affects expenditures switching and reduction when wages are partially indexed in some segments of the labor market the paper also shows the extent to which a more flexible rule on wage indexing would have offset the adverse impact of lower capital flows on protected sector employment

contestable markets an uprising in the theory of industry structure presents a transcript of the presidential address delivered at the 94th meeting of the american economic association on december 29 1981 discussion of developments in the theory of industry structure welfare attributes of contestable markets behavior characteristics of oligopoly equilibrium intertemporal vulnerability to inefficient entry ebsco

the financing of the mexican electrical sector abstract this paper analyses the financial pattern of the mexican electricity sector its financial limits in both development and modernization of this strategic sector and the main options for resolving this financing problem including the proposals of the president fox government our allocation of risks and profitability analysis explain the present success in attracting private investments to expand both generation and transmission capacity through blt and ipp projects the financial limitation is nevertheless the low self financing of federal electricity commission cfe that will make it very difficult to obtain financing to fulfil blt and ipp contract compromises and to invest large sums in the expansion and modernization of the electricity sector the main options to resolve the financial problems of the mexican electricity sector are 1 the improvement of the present financial pattern 2 the opening of generation and supply segments to private capital with the preservation of the vertically integrated state owned utilities and 3 the proposals of the president fox economic transition team that consider the opening of generation and supply segments the setting up of an independent state owned company to operate both the electrical dispatching and a power pool and finally the transformation of cfe into a holding of state owned utilities of generation distribution and transmission

externalities from contract length an increase in the length of a firm s labor contract contributes to rigidity in the aggregate price level this increases the variance of aggregate demand but decreases the variance of other firms real wages under certain conditions the net effect is to increase the variance of other firms employment this negative externality implies that the equilibrium contract length in a decentralized economy is greater than the social optimum in other words wages are too rigid copyright 1987 by american economic association

the mexican electricity sector policy analysis and reform 1992 2009 this article analyses the cause effect relation of the structural reform in the mexican electricity sector called the public electricity service act from 1992 to 2009 one of the main arguments of the reform is to attract private investment in order to reduce the financial load of the government in infrastructure for the development of the national electric power system by means of six modalities power self supply cogeneration small power production independent power production power export and power import the article presents the global context of reforms adopted in 1990 the major policies and events are presented in chronological order before and after reform in addition it analyses the new institutional framework the evolution of modalities technologies of electricity generation and tariffs the main conclusion is that the result of reform could be considered a partial progress the independent power production modality shows greater participation while power self supply and cogeneration are lower the subsidy policy is maintained progress is needed in policies and strengthening and also in updating regulatory and normative frameworks

a new keynesian model of policy irrelevance of the developments in macro theory of the last thirty years few have been as far reaching as the introduction of rational expectations in particular to the study of how discretionary use of monetary policy by central bankers affects output and employment by ascribing rational expectations to private agents lucas 11 kydland and prescott 10 barro and gordon 6 alesina and tabellini 1 rogoff 16 and a host of others have demonstrated examples in which agents who understand the motives of the monetary authority will correctly anticipate the monetary authority s actions and render them ineffective in affecting any real variables in these models it is only the innovations in monetary policy which private agents could not forecast that had any real effects systematic use of the tools of monetary policy to achieve an end were ineffective typically these models represented the economy as a reduced form game in which the payoffs to private agents depended on the realizations of actions of the monetary authority agents forecasts of those actions and random shocks imposed by nature it was understood if not always explicitly stated that some general equilibrium model existed whose equilibrium outcomes generated the payoff functions of the game the goal of the monetary authority was to alter the outcome of the game away from the non cooperative equilibrium towards some other outcome which was not consistent with autarkic payoff maximization but superior to the non cooperative outcome each individual agent would maximize his payoff by correctly anticipating the monetary authority s move in the aggregate the result would be that the monetary authority s action would be rendered ineffective

measuring the effects of dollar appreciation on asia a favar approach abstract exchange rate shocks have mixed effects on economic activity in both theory and empirical var models in this paper we extend the empirical literature by considering the implications of a positive shock to the u s dollar in a factor augmented vector autoregression favar model for the u s and three large asian economies korea japan and china the favar framework allows us to represent a country s aggregate economic activity by a latent factor generated from a broad set of underlying observable economic indicators to control for global conditions we also include in the favar a global conditions index which is another latent factor generated from the economic indicators of major trading partners we find that a dollar appreciation shock reduces economic activity and inflation not only for the u s economy but also for all three asian economies this result which is robust to a number of alternative specifications suggests that in spite of their disparate economic structures and policy regimes the dollar appreciation shock affects the asian economies primarily through its impact on u s aggregate demand and this demand channel dominates the expenditure switching channel that affects a country s export competitiveness

terms of trade and current account dynamics a methodological critique this paper suggests that the recent intertemporal studies concerning the implications of terms of trade deterioration on the current account of a small open economy may suffer from significant methodological deficiencies the study demonstrates that while the assumption of a small open economy represents a legitimate modeling simplification the analysis of the impact of perturbation of the terms of trade on the current account of this small open economy is methodologically erroneous in particular the paper demonstrates that a given pattern of terms of trade deterioration may be associated with opposing evolutionary patterns of the current account of this small economy this paper argues that the methodology employed by several influential intertemporal studies concerning the relationship between the terms of trade and the current account of a small economy suffers from critical deficiencies it demonstrates that while the assumption of a small open economy confronting exogenously determined terms of trade represents a legitimate modeling simplification the analysis of the impact of perturbations of this terms of trade on the small open economy and on its current account is methodologically erroneous in particular the paper demonstrates that a small economy may experience diametrically opposing evolutionary patterns of the current account in association with a given pattern of terms of trade deterioration the paper suggests therefore that predictions based on this literature are in need of reassessment these intertemporal studies of the relationship between the terms of trade and the current account of a small economy have been conducted under the simplifying assumption that perturbations in the terms of trade are exogenous and do not affect the world interest rate 2 this approach may reflect a valid simplification as long as the study is concerned with exportable goods whose prices are insignificant in the determination of the general price level in the world economy however if the focus of the analysis is a small country that exports a group of commodities such as agricultural goods or industrial goods a change in the terms of trade for the small economy may reflect fundamental changes in the world relative prices that are

vertical product differentiation and the import demand function theory and evidence in this paper we use a model of vertical product differentiation to cast doubt on the general validity of the import demand function as specified in macroeconomic models the empirical importance of our theoretical concerns is then established according to our first hypothesis the share of a good s imports in total imports is non increasing in domestic wages if the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties of this good the second hypothesis states that the share of a good s imports is increasing in non wage domes tic income if the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties of this good

has greater competition restrained u s inflation this paper shows how increased goods market competition affects the behavior of inflation in a multisector economy by raising the price elasticity of demand increased goods market competition theoretically lowers inflation and makes the aggregate price level less sensitive to aggregate demand shocks we find that proxies for the aggregate degree of goods market competition are statistically and economically significant in short run phillips curve models of core inflation evidence indicates that heightened goods market competition has flattened the slope of the short run expectations augmented phillips curve and slightly lowered the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu

the equilibrium and optimal timing of price changes this paper studies the welfare properties of the equilibrium timing of price changes staggered price setting has the advantage that it permits rapid adjustment to firm specific shocks but the disadvantages that it causes unwanted fluctuations in relative prices and that by creating price level inertia it can increase aggregate fluctuations because each firm ignores its contribution to these problems staggering can be a stable equilibrium even if it is highly inefficient in addition there can be multiple equilibria in the timing of prices changes indeed whenever there is an inefficient staggered equilibrium there is also an efficient equilibrium with synchronized price setting

capital movements intersectoral resource shifts and the trade balance abstract in this paper i consider the interactions between the internal structure of the economy and its external balance in an intertemporal set up with perfect foresight a simple pattern emerges current account deficits are associated with depreciating real exchange rates the incorporation of real investments and government spendings change this pattern in a systematic way depending on factor intensities the composition of government spending and its timing

capital controls and fiscal policy in the world economy an intertemporal utility maximization framework is employed to model a world economy with capital controls the effects of fiscal policy in such an environment are examined several results emerge concerning the international transmission of fiscal policy under capital controls and the nature of comovements in macro economic aggregates such as output employment consumption and investment some of the paper s other results concern the implications of capital controls for ricardian equivalence the role of financing decisions in the international transmission process under capital controls and the effect of capital controls on the magnitude of fiscal induced fluctuations throughout the world economy contr6les des mouvements de capitaux et politique fiscale dans l conomie mondiale les auteurs utilisent une approche par la maximisation intertemporelle de l utilite pour modeliser une economie mondiale dans laquelle des controles sur les mouvements de capitaux existent ils examinent les effets de la politique fiscale dans un tel contexte on tire de ces analyses plusieurs resultats quant i la transmission internationale des effets de la politique fiscale et quant aux mouvements lies de certains agregats economiques comme les niveaux de production d emploi de consommation et d investissement certains autres resultats de cette analyse ont trait aux implications des controles des mouvements de capitaux sur l1 quivalence ricardienne au role des decisions de financement dans le processus international de transmission quand il y a controle des mouvements de capitaux et aux effets des controles sur les mouvements de capitaux sur la magnitude des fluctuations induites a travers l economie mondiale par la politique fiscale helpful comments from two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged discussion in workshops held at ucla duke university iowa state university queen s university vanderbilt university vpi and the university of western ontario has also been useful canadian journal of economics revue canadienine d economique xviii no 4 november novembre 1985 printed in canada imprime au canada 0008 4085 85 743 65 1 50 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 207 46 13 129 on mon 27 jun 2016 05 25 03 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms 744 jeremy greenwood and kent p kimbrough

terms of trade and national saving rates in asia abstract in recent theoretical work obstfeld and svensson and razin re examine the harberger laursen metzler effect of terms of trade changes on the balance of payments current account their models of intertemporal utility maximization indicate that individuals saving responses to a change in the terms of trade are ambiguous in theory from this they infer that the corresponding movements in the current account are also ambiguous however they ignore the positive rate of growth effect incorporated in the life cycle theory on the aggregate saving rate this paper presents an empirical analysis of the terms of trade effect on aggregate national saving rates in 14 asian developing countries over the period 1961 1981 it turns out to be significantly positive as the life cycle model predicts

the heterogeneity of labor wage indexation and welfare abstract when disturbances are nominal full indexation seems to be optimal for real disturbances less than full indexation should be used in the indexation literature this general result is obtained by assuming that labor is homogeneous and indexation is applied throughout the economy in the paper we show that some qualifications need to be made when labor is heterogeneous and only a small portion of labor market is covered by indexation

current accounts in debtor and creditor countries the authors reexamine a classic question in international economics what is the current account response to a transitory income shock such as a temporary improvement in the terms of trade a transfer from abroad or unusually high production to answer this question they construct a world equilibrium model in which productivity varies across countries and international borrowing and lending take place to exploit good investment opportunities despite its conventional ingredients the model generates the novel prediction that favorable income shocks lead to current account deficits in debtor countries and current account surpluses in creditor countries evidence from thirteen oecd countries broadly supports this theoretical prediction

terms of trade shocks and the current account in small island developing states abstract the paper investigates the dynamic relationship between external and internal shocks and the current account in selected small islands developing states external shocks defined as terms of trade fluctuations explain a significant proportion of the variation in the current account balances the external shocks have a temporary negative impact on the current account balances with a subsequent improvement generating a j curve type reaction in contrast real output shocks have a positive and significant effect on the current account

trade and capital account liberalization in a keynesian economy this paper analyzes the process of trade and capital account liberalization in a keynesian framework with unemployed resources previous studies on this subject have ignored the potential interactions between the liberalization process and the pre existing distortions in the economy this paper derives the optimal liberalization policy given the keynesian context and solves for explicit formulas for the import tariffs and the capital account tax in a two period general equilibrium model it is argued that a trade reform is likely to have recessionary effects in the short run if the capital account has already been liberalized

savings investment and international capital flows abstract the high correlation between national savings and domestic investment rateshas been interpreted as evidence that capital is not internationally mobile this paper surveys the theory and evidence on the relationship between savings and investment in a sample of 23 oecd countries a positive correlation between savings and investment rates is found in both the short and long runs however a wide variety of models generate such co movements in savings and investment in response to exogenous disturbances even under conditions of complete financial markets thus the savings investment correlation provides little evidence on the question of international capital mobility

insiders outsiders and nominal wage contracts while the consequences of nominal wage contracts have been rather thoroughly analyzed there is no generally accepted theory of why such contracts prevail in this paper i argue that the distinction between insiders and outsiders is important for understanding nominal wage contracts since most employment fluctuations take the form of fluctuations in hiring insiders are normally not affected by them since prices are primarily determined by costs demand shocks have small effects on real wages thus insiders have little incentive to change to more complicated contracts with rigid nominal wages nominal demand shocks have large effects on the employment opportunities of outsiders but outsiders have little influence on labor contracts

terms of trade factor intensities and the current account in a life cycle model this paper examines the effects of terms of trade changes on the external adjustment of a small open economy where each consumer has a life cycle saving function the supply side of the economy is given by the standard two sector model with two primary factors labour and capital it is shown that when both commodities are produced a terms of trade deterioration leads to a current account deficit surplus if the export import sector is more labour intensive

on fiscal deficits the real exchange rate and the world rate of interest we use a full general equilibrium two country two period model with perfect capital markets and intertemporal optimization and perfect foresight underlying private consumer behaviour in both countries to analyse effects of pure fiscal policy we demonstrate that higher government budget deficits in one country caused by a cut in commodity taxes today balanced by an equal present value increase tomorrow will not be offset one for one by higher private savings because of pure substitution effects triggered by the change in the intertemporal terms of trade the tax change causes the country with the increased government deficit will therefore run a larger current account deficit which in turn unambiguously leads to higher world real interest rates whether a real appreciation results in the country with the higher deficit is shown to depend on the metzler condition for an undereffected transfer if we spend more on our goods than they spend on our goods on the margin government deficits will lead to an appreciation of the exchange rate of the country with the government deficit and vice versa

the incidence and intensity of wage indexation an empirical analysis variables suggested by theoretical studies of indexation are considered with a view to examining their utility in the context of the decision to index incidence and the desired degree of indexation when escalator clauses are put into effect intensity the tobit model which can address both of these issues suggests that most of the effects of explanatory variables on the regressand occur by modifying the incidence of indexation not its intensity however the tobit model is itself rejected in favour of separate probit and truncated regression investigations of incidence and intensity respectively the results obtained indicate that the standard list of explanatory variables which one thinks of in the context of the theoretical literature as dealing primarily with intensity perform well in explaining incidence but very poorly in accounting for the non limit observations the latter are influenced by bargaining power proxies such as the unemployment rate and union density a very clear trade off be

commodity windfalls polarization and net foreign assets panel data evidence on the voracity effect this paper examines the effects that windfalls from international commodity price booms have on net foreign assets in a panel of 145 countries during the period 1970 2007 the main finding is that windfalls from international commodity price booms lead to a significant increase in net foreign assets but only in countries that are ethnically homogeneous in highly ethnically polarized countries net foreign assets significantly decreased to explain this asymmetry the paper shows that in ethnically polarized countries commodity windfalls lead to large increases in government consumption expenditures and political corruption the paper s findings are consistent with theoretical models of the current account that have a built in voracity effect