demand elasticities for food products in brazil a two stage budgeting system the object of this article is to estimate demand elasticities for a basket of staple food important for providing the caloric needs of brazilian households these elasticities are useful in the measurement of the impact of structural reforms on poverty a two stage demand system was constructed based on data from household expenditure surveys pof produced by ibge the brazilian bureau of statistics in 1987 88 and 1995 96 we have used panel data to estimate the model and have calculated income own price and cross price elasticities for eight groups of goods and services and in the second stage for 11 sub groups of staple food products we estimated those elasticities for the whole sample of consumers and for two income groups

an empirical study on the rebound effect considering capital costs technological progress is one of the means of reducing energy usage and carbon dioxide co2 emissions however this reduction in turn leads to a reduction in the real cost of energy services per unit which results in an increase in the demand for energy services therefore a reduction in the anticipated co2 emissions caused by a technological improvement might be partially offset in response to the cost reduction previous studies have referred to this effect as the rebound effect a large amount of empirical evidence on the rebound effect exists however most of these studies assume an exogenous improvement in energy efficiency and thus capital costs that may decrease the magnitude of the rebound effect are not taken into account expressly this paper extends the scope of the research conducted by brannlund et al brannlund r ghalwash t nordstrom j 2007 increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect effects on consumption and emissions energy economics 29 1 17 in terms of two aspects i considering capital costs explicitly as additional capital costs and ii adapting an iterating procedure and estimating the rebound effect using japanese household data as a result of our empirical analysis we conclude that the rebound is approximately 27 however we also find that ignoring additional capital costs leads to an increase in the rebound effect in the case of japanese households the magnitude of the rebound effect increases to approximately 115 moreover our simulation study shows that only a one time iteration of brannlund et al brannlund r ghalwash t nordstrom j 2007 increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect effects on consumption and emissions energy economics 29 1 17 may lead to a biased result

the non linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in europe a threshold panel approach this paper investigates the relationship between electricity demand and temperature in the european union we address this issue by means of a panel threshold regression model on 15 european countries over the last two decades our results confirm the non linearity of the link between electricity consumption and temperature found in more limited geographical areas in previous studies by distinguishing between north and south countries we also find that this non linear pattern is more pronounced in the warm countries finally rolling regressions show that the sensitivity of electricity consumption to temperature in summer has increased in the recent period

structural change in an open economy we study the importance of international trade in structural change our framework has both productivity and trade cost shocks and allows for non unitary income and substitution elasticities we calibrate our model to investigate south korea s structural change between 1971 and 2005 we nd that the shock processes propagated through the model s two main transmission mechanisms non homothetic preferences and the open economy explain virtually all of the evolution of agriculture and services labor shares and the rising part of the hump shape in manufacturing counterfactual exercises show that the role of the open economy is quantitatively important for explaining south korea s structural change

separability functional form and regulatory policy in models of interfuel substitution abstract counter intuitive results such as positive own price elasticities have been found in some studies of interfuel substitution this paper examines three possible reasons for this problem first including energy materials in petroleum and coal aggregates is found to contribute to incorrect signs second the mathematical properties of the translog function contribute to concavity violations in contrast the linear logit model of cost shares is found to provide more sensible estimates of own price elasticities across alternative model specifications finally natural gas curtailment policies and environmental regulations are found to be significant factors influencing us industrial fuel demand although omission of these factors does not directly contribute to curvature violations

single period multiproduct inventory models with substitution we study a single period multiproduct inventory problem with substitution and proportional costs and revenues we consider n products and n demand classes with full downward substitution i e excess demand for class i can be satisfied using product j for i j we first discuss a two stage profit maximization formulation for the multiproduct substitution problem we show that a greedy allocation policy is optimal we use this to write the expected profits and its first partials explicitly this in turn enables us to prove additional properties of the profit function and several interesting properties of the optimal solution in a limited computational study using two products we illustrate the benefits of solving for the optimal quantities when substitution is considered at the ordering stage over similar computations without considering substitution while ordering specifically we show that the benefits are higher with high demand variability low substitution cost low profit margins or low price to cost ratio high salvage values and similarity of products in terms of prices and costs

the drivers of structural change the main goal of this paper is to provide an integrated survey of the literature devoted to identifying the drivers of structural change broadly defined as the process of reallocation of economic activity across the three broad sectors agriculture manufacturing and services using the ggdc 10 sector database this paper first presents the empirical facts associated with structural change in different regions of the world that is europe and the usa asia latin america and africa then reviews four determinants of structural change i changes in income ii changes in relative sectoral prices iii changes in input output linkages and iv changes in comparative advantage s via globalization and trade

agricultural productivity and structural transformation evidence from brazil we study the eects of the adoption of new agricultural technologies on structural transfor mation to guide empirical work we present a simple model where the eect of agricultural productivity on industrial development depends on the factor bias of technical change we test the predictions of the model by studying the introduction of genetically engineered soybean seeds in brazil which had heterogeneous eects on agricultural productivity across areas with dierent soil and weather characteristics we nd that technical change in soy production was strongly labor saving and lead to industrial growth as predicted by the model

impact of loss aversion on the newsvendor game with product substitution abstract this paper studies a newsvendor game in which two substitutable products are sold by two different retailers newsvendors with loss averse preferences each loss averse retailer facing stochastic customer demand and deterministic substitution rate will make an order quantity decision to maximize his expected utility since product substitution causes two retailers to make decisions in a competitive environment game theory is used to find the retailers optimal order quantities it is shown that under certain conditions there exists a unique nash equilibrium in the newsvendor game under a symmetry assumption each retailer s equilibrium order quantity is decreasing in the loss aversion coefficient and increasing in the substitution rate further if the effect of loss aversion on the order quantity is strong enough to dominate the effect of competition the total inventory level of a decentralized supply chain will be lower than that of a centralized supply chain numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate our results

dynamic capacity management with substitution we examine a multiperiod capacity allocation model with upgrading there are multiple product types corresponding to multiple classes of demand and the firm purchases capacity of each product before the first period within each period after demand arrives products are allocated to customers customers who arrive to find that their product has been depleted can be upgraded by at most one level we show that the optimal allocation policy is a simple two step algorithm first use any available capacity to satisfy same class demand and then upgrade customers until capacity reaches a protection limit so that in the second step the higher level capacity is rationed we show that these results hold both when all capacity is salvaged at the end of the last demand period as well as when capacity can be replenished in the latter case an order up to policy is optimal for replenishment although finding the optimal protection limits is computationally intensive we describe bounds for the optimal protection limits that take little effort to compute and can be used to effectively solve large problems using these heuristics we examine numerically the relative value of strictly optimal capacity and dynamic rationing the value of perfect demand information and the impact of demand and economic parameters on the value of optimal substitution

joint pricing and production decisions with yield uncertainty and downconversion abstract we consider a firm who supplies two types of products high end and low end because of the uncertainty in the production process the yield rate of the high end products is uncertain the substandard high end products caused by the yield uncertainty can be transformed into the low end products with a certain cost we characterize the optimal pricing and production decisions and develop an algorithm to compute the optimal solution we also investigate the impact of the yield uncertainty on the firm s performance and explore how stability of market demand emergent fulfillment costs and downconversion cost influence this effect we find that i the profit of the firm deteriorates when the risk of the yield uncertainty is high in the face of yield uncertainty the firm prefers to decrease increase the production quantity of the high end low end products ii when the market demands are quite unstable the emergent fulfillment costs are low or the downconversion cost is high the firm has a low incentive to eliminate the yield uncertainty

structural transformation and the deterioration of european labor market outcomes this paper examines hours worked in continental europe and the united states from 1956 to 2003 the empirical work establishes two results first hours worked in europe decline by almost 45 percent compared to the united states over this period second this decline is almost entirely accounted for by the fact that europe develops a much smaller market service sector than the united states a simple model of time allocation is used to understand these patterns i find that relative increases in taxes and technological catch up can account for most of the differences between the european and american time allocations over this period

capital skill complementarity sectoral labor productivity and structural transformation abstract in the postwar u s economy labor productivity has been growing faster in the goods sector versus the service sector this paper argues that this sectoral labor productivity growth gap can largely be explained by the fact that capital intensity also increases faster in the goods sector i build a two sector neoclassical growth model in which capital substitutes low skilled labor but complements high skilled labor and the goods sector is more intensive in low skilled labor relative to the service sector as observed in the data as capital becomes more abundant relative to labor along economic growth low skilled labor is substituted by capital leading to faster growth of capital intensity and hence labor productivity in the goods sector using a calibrated model i find that two thirds of the sectoral labor productivity growth gap can be explained by capital accumulation and its interaction with capital skill complementarity

what do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data the aim of this paper is to assess the importance of using micro level data in the econometric analysis of consumer demand to do this we utilize a time series of repeated cross sections covering some 4 000 households in each of 15 years employing a number of different aggregation procedures we conclude that aggregate data alone are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of structural price and income coefficients however once certain aggregation factors as well as trend and seasonal components are included an aggregate model is not necessarily outperformed across all demand equations in terms of forecasting ability jel d12 c52 c31 the purpose of this paper is to develop a complete consumer demand system based on a time series of individual household data and to use it to measure the biases introduced into the study of consumer de mand behavior when aggregate data are used in place of the appropriate microeco nomic data we assess the suitability of ag gregate data through the impact on income and price elasticities and by evaluating the ability of both micro and aggregate based models to forecast aggregate consumer de mand the biases introduced by the use of aggregate data depend upon the way that household characteristics interact with in come and price effects and on departures of demand systems from linearity we explore the structure of microeconomic demand sys tems and the role of household characteris tics in the behavior of consumer demand both for the light this may shed on the pattern of future demands and for the im plications this behavior has for issues of aggregation consumer demand patterns typically found in micro data sets vary considerably across households with different household characteristics and with different levels of income we model this variability by making intercept and slope parameters in the budget share equations of our demand sys tem depend on household characteristics and by allowing for nonlinear total log expenditure terms in fact in theory consistent demand systems it is total ex penditure rather than disposable income that is allocated across goods we find that this general framework leads to a well specified data coherent demand system which is a quadratic extension of the popu lar almost ideal model of angus s deaton and john muellbauer 1980 the micro level estimates are shown to be sensitive to the treatment of endogeneity of total expen diture and to the specification of interaction terms with household characteristics in ad dition this specification is also shown to possess many attractive features for the evaluation of aggregate models

the role of trade in structural transformation abstract low agriculture productivity is considered a key obstacle to economic development for many countries international trade in agricultural goods can help overcome this barrier and facilitate structural transformation because it allows countries to import part of their food needs this article quantifies the role of trade in this context through the examples of south korea during the last 50 years and great britain in the 19th century to do the analysis i calibrate and simulate a two sector neoclassical growth model to match the data and perform the policy experiments i find that agricultural imports played a crucial role in the early transformation of great britain while in south korea trade also had a positive impact on its structural transformation but it could have played a much larger role if the country had not introduced agricultural protection policies

functional form and aggregate energy demand elasticities a nonparametric panel approach for 17 oecd countries this paper studies whether the commonly used linear parametric model for estimating aggregate energy demand is the correct functional specification for the data generating process parametric and n

a life cycle consistent empirical model of family labour supply using cross section data this paper estimates a utility maximising model of the joint determination of male and female labour supplies using a sample of married couples from the u k family expenditure survey the emphasis is on the estimation of within period preferences that are consistent with intertemporal two stage budgeting under uncertainty however the approach we adopt provides an alternative method of estimating certain aspects of life cycle behaviour to the fixed effects constant approach of heckman and macurdy 1980 macurdy 1981 and browning deaton and irish 1985 moreover it relaxes some of the underlying restrictions that are implicit in these constant models under uncertainty

testing functional forms in energy modeling an application of the bayesian approach to u s electricity demand abstract in the estimation of demand functions for energy resources linear log linear translog or aids functional forms are commonly assumed it is frequently debated which is the best functional forms to employ in order to accurately represent the underlying relationships between the consumption of various energy resources and explanatory variables such as energy prices weather variables income and other factors in an example analysis of residential energy demand employing cross sectional household level data we find that the aids model is slightly better than the translog model which is superior to the log linear model and which in turn is better than the linear model this is in sharp contrast to previous findings in this context

the effect of the german and british environmental taxation reforms a simple assessment abstract this article implements a simple econometric approach to assess the effect of the environmental tax reforms introduced in germany and the uk despite the very simple econometric approach adopted in this paper in the case of the energy demand our results do not differ markedly from those obtained from complicated multi sectoral econometric models in the case of the labour demand our results differ from the estimates obtained from econometric models where the employment level is not directly influenced by the energy price on the other hand our results are more similar to those obtained from models where the level of employment is directly influenced by the energy price confirming the findings of bosquet 2000 environmental tax reform does it work a survey of the empirical evidence ecological economics 34 19 32 and oecd 2004 environment and employment an assessment working party on national environmental policy oecd paris we conclude that environmental tax reforms can deliver substantial reductions in energy consumption while having small effects on the level of employment effect which can be positive depending on the size of the reduction in the labour costs and the value of cross price elasticities

modeling energy demand some emerging issues abstract the proliferation of papers on energy demand modeling has offered different dimensions both in terms of methodology and estimation while this development has strengthened our understanding of the subject it may render the identification of gaps in the literature arduous for future research thus this study sets out to document some emerging issues that seem to have engendered new directions on energy demand modeling ranging from asymmetric price responses time varying demand parameters triangulation analyses to seasonal and climate change effects it is hoped that access to this review complemented with the previous ones will facilitate the comprehension of the extant literature as well as areas of future research in energy demand modeling

response of residential electricity demand to price the effect of measurement error abstract in this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 us states from 1995 to 2007 earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions but has failed to recognize or address two major issues the first is that when fitting dynamic panel models the lagged consumption term in the right hand side of the demand equation is endogenous this has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long run price elasticity of demand the second is that energy price is likely mismeasured to address these issues we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the kiviet corrected least square dummy variables lsdv 1995 and the blundell bond 1998 estimators we find that the long term elasticities produced by the blundell bond system gmm methods are largest and that from the bias corrected lsdv are greater than that from the conventional lsdv from an energy policy point of view the results obtained using the blundell bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that a carbon tax or other price based policy may be effective in discouraging residential electricity consumption and hence curbing greenhouse gas emissions in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants

public transportation demand in a border metropolitan economy empirical research for public transport demand has uncovered numerous interesting commonalities across metropolitan economies this study examines the demand for municipal bus services over time in el paso texas usa el paso is one of the largest metropolitan economies in the usa located directly adjacent to an international boundary with another country this study not only models the demand for municipal bus services as a function of traditional variables such as price income and weather but also includes regressors designed to measure the potential impacts of cross border economic conditions on el paso ridership results from a linear transfer function ltf modelling approach indicate that rider volumes are affected by domestic as well as international economic conditions in this border metropolitan area

optimal myopic policy for a stochastic inventory problem with fixed and proportional backorder costs in this paper we consider a single product periodic review stochastic demand inventory problem where backorders are allowed and penalized via fixed and proportional backorder costs simultaneously fixed backorder cost associates a one shot penalty with stockout situations whereas proportional backorder cost corresponds to a penalty for each demanded but yet waiting to be satisfied item we discuss the optimality of a myopic base stock policy for the infinite horizon case critical number of the infinite horizon myopic policy i e the base stock level is denoted by s if the initial inventory is below s then the optimal policy is myopic in general i e regardless of the values of model parameters and demand density otherwise the sufficient condition for a myopic optimum requires some restrictions on demand density or parameter values however this sufficient condition is not very restrictive in the sense that it holds immediately for erlang demand density family we also show that the value of s can be computed easily for the case of erlang demand this special case is important since most real life demand densities with coefficient of variation not exceeding unity can well be represented by an erlang density thus the myopic policy may be considered as an approximate solution if the exact policy is intractable finally we comment on a generalization of this study for the case of phase type demands and identify some related research problems which utilize the results presented here

toward an understanding of economic growth in africa a reinterpretation of the lewis model summary we develop a model economy that has many of the features of lewis 1954 but that also includes an in between sector as described by lewis 1979 our model underscores the importance of the following determinants of structural change i productivity growth in the agricultural sector ii productivity growth in the nonagricultural sector and iii the terms of trade public investment enhances productivity growth in all sectors but when it is financed by foreign inflows it also causes a real exchange rate appreciation leading to a contraction in the open modern sector these results provide a partial explanation for recent patterns of growth in rwanda and elsewhere in africa where the nontradables or what we call the in between sector has expanded more rapidly than the tradable sector our results also highlight the dilemma faced by poor countries in dire need of public investment with a very limited tax base

the industrialization and economic development of russia through the lens of a neoclassical growth model this article studies the structural transformation of russia in 1885 1940 from an agrarian to an industrial economy through the lens of a two sector neoclassical growth model we construct a data set that covers tsarist russia during 1885 1913 and soviet union during 1928 1940 we develop a methodology that allows us to identify the types of frictions and economic mechanisms that had the largest quantitative impact on russian economic development we find that entry barriers and monopoly power in the non agricultural sector were the most important reason for tsarist russia s failure to industrialize before world war i soviet industrial transformation after 1928 was achieved primarily by reducing such frictions albeit coinciding with a significantly lower performance of productivity in both agricultural and non agricultural sectors we find no evidence that tsarist agricultural institutions were a significant barrier to labour reallocation to manufacturing or that big push mechanisms were a major driver of soviet growth

on the heterogeneous welfare gains and losses from trade how are the gains and losses from trade distributed across individuals within a country first we document that tradable goods constitute a larger fraction of expenditures for poor households second we build a trade model with nonhomothetic preferences to generate the documented relationship between tradable expenditure shares income and wealth and uninsurable earnings risk to generate heterogeneity in income and wealth third we use the calibrated model to quantify the differential welfare gains and losses from trade along the income and wealth distribution in a numerical exercise we permanently reduce trade costs so as to generate a rise in import share of gdp commensurate with that seen in the data from 2001 to 2014 we find that households in the lowest wealth decile experience welfare gains over the transition measured by permanent consumption equivalents that are 67 percent larger than those in the highest wealth decile

conformism and structural change using a simple multisector model of endogenous growth we show that commodity specific consumption externalities can be a source of structural change when the degrees of consumption externalities are different between goods each sector grows at a different rate however the aggregate economy exhibits balanced growth in that capital stock and expenditure grow at the same constant rate a three sector version of our model may reconcile kaldor s stylized facts with empirically plausible profiles of industrial structure transformation

welfare comparison under exact aggregation new econometric model of aggregate consumer behavior in the united states and to apply this model to the analysis of impacts of alternative economic policies on the welfare of individual consuming units the model incorporates time series data on quantities consumed prices the level and distribution of income and demographic characteristics of the population it also incorporates cross section data on the allocation of consumer expenditures for households with different demographic characteristics our econometric model is based on the theory of exact aggregation developed by lau 1977a c this theory makes it possible to dispense with the notion of a representative consumer in constructing models of aggregate consumer behavior one of the most remarkable implications of lau s theory of exact aggregation is that systems of demand functions for individuals with common demographic characteristics can be recovered uniquely from the system of aggregate demand functions using the individual demand functions we can analyze the impact of economic policy on consumer welfare

structural change accounting with labor market distortions abstract this paper quantifies the relative importance of sectoral productivity and labor market distortions for structural change in the u s india mexico and brazil between 1960 and 2005 i use census data to compute human capital by sector and infer labor market distortions as sectoral gaps in wage per unit of human capital i incorporate these distortions into a model of structural change and calibrate the model to reproduce the time paths of sectoral shares of labor and value added for each country counterfactuals reveal that 1 tfp growth in agriculture drives most of the decline in its share of labor 2 the role of labor market distortions is limited

preference shifts and the change of consumption composition while most of the literature explaining the change in consumption composition has focused on the role of relative prices and non homothetic preferences this paper examines the importance of preference shifts i introduce dynamics in preferences and find that they play a relevant role and that their exclusion worsens model performance at least as much as the exclusion of allowing non homothetic preferences

simple tests of distributional effects on macroeconomic equations the presence of distributional effects in macroeconomic equations is shown to coincide with nonlinearity in micro behavioral relationships parameters estimated with aggregate data as in representative agent models contain distributional biases that are not measurable using aggregate data alone tests for distributional effects and other measures of the extent of aggregation problems are derived using distributional data observed over time significant distributional effects are noted for a model of annual aggregate u s commodity expenditure data a static model that accommodates individual heterogeneity is found to be statistically equivalent to a simply dynamic model that accommodates first order autocorrelation

the rise of mass consumption societies this paper studies mechanisms behind the rise of mass consumption societies the development process depicted follows the flying geese pattern in which a series of industries take off one after another as productivity improves in these industries each consumer good becomes affordable to an increasingly large number of households which constantly expand the range of goods they consume this in turn generates larger markets for consumer goods which leads to further improvement in productivity for such virtuous cycles of productivity gains and expanding markets to occur income distribution should be neither too equal nor too unequal with too much equality the economy stagnates in a poverty trap with too much inequality the development stops prematurely

structural transformation and comparative advantage implications for small open economies data from the last half century show that revealed comparative advantage in agriculture manufacturing is negatively positively associated with the rate of decline in labour share in agriculture motivated by this finding the author constructs and calibrates a simple open economy model where there is learning by doing in manufacturing and industry supplied inputs to agricultural production this paper focuses on the effects of comparative advantage and learning by doing on structural transformation and calibrate the model to the us and the uk data to estimate key parameters of the model quantitative experiments show that holding constant other factors a small difference in a country s comparative advantage can account for a large variation in structural transformation for open economies which does not require nearly as much differential productivity growth as in closed economy models

managing an available to promise assembly system with dynamic short term pseudo order forecast we study an order promising problem in a multiclass available to promise atp assembly system in the presence of pseudo orders a pseudo order refers to a tentative customer order whose attributes such as the likelihood of an actual order order quantity and confirmation timing can change dynamically over time a unit demand from any class is assembled from one manufactured unit and one inventory unit where the manufactured unit takes one unit of capacity and needs a single period to produce an accepted order must be filled before a positive delivery lead time the underlying order acceptance decisions involve trade offs between committing resources production capacity and component inventory to low reward firm orders and reserving resources for high reward orders we develop a markov chain model that captures the key characteristics of pseudo orders including demand lumpiness nonstationarity and volatility we then formulate a stochastic dynamic program for the atp assembly system that embeds the markov chain model as a short term forecast for pseudo orders we show that the optimal order acceptance policy is characterized by class prioritization resource imbalance based rationing and capacity inventory demand matching in particular the rationing level for each class is determined by a critical value that depends on the resource imbalance level defined as the net difference between the production capacity and component inventory levels extensive numerical tests underscore the importance of the key properties of the optimal policy and provide operational and managerial insights on the value of the short term demand forecast and the robustness of the optimal policy this paper was accepted by martin lariviere operations management

structural change and the kaldor facts in a growth model with relative price effects and non gorman preferences u s data reveal three facts 1 the share of goods in total expenditure declines at a constant rate over time 2 the price of goods relative to services declines at a constant rate over time and 3 poor households spend a larger fraction of their budget on goods than do rich households i provide a macroeconomic model with non gorman preferences that rationalizes these facts along with the aggregate kaldor facts the model is parsimonious and admits an analytical solution its functional form allows a decomposition of u s structural change into an income and substitution effect estimates from micro data show each of these effects to be of roughly equal importance

optimal policies for inventory systems with priority demand classes we consider a periodic review inventory system with two priority demand classes one deterministic and the other stochastic the deterministic demand must be met immediately in each period however the units of stochastic demand that are not satisfied during the period when demand occurs are treated as lost sales at each decision epoch one has to decide not only whether an order should be placed and how much to order but also how much demand to fill from the stochastic source the firm has the option to ration inventory to the stochastic source i e not satisfy all customer demand even though there is inventory in the system we first characterize the structure of the optimal policy we show that in general the optimal order quantity and rationing policy are state dependent and do not have a simple structure we then propose a simple policy called s k s policy wheres ands ordering policy determine when and how much to order whilek rationing policy specifies how much of the stochastic demand to satisfy we report the results of a numerical study which shows that this simple policy works extremely well and is very easy to compute

capital labor substitution structural change and the labor income share abstract recent work has documented declines in the labor income share in the united states and beyond this paper documents that this decline was more pronounced in manufacturing than in services in the u s and in a broad set of other industrialized economies and shows that a model with cross sectoral differences in productivity growth and in the degree of capital labor substitutability is consistent with these trends we calibrate the model exploiting additional information on the pace of structural change from manufacturing to services on which the model also has predictions we then conduct a decomposition to establish the relative importance of several potential drivers of changes in factor income shares and structural change that have been proposed in the literature this exercise reveals that differences in the degree of capital bias of technical change across sectors combined with differences in substitution possibilities are key determinants of the observed patterns

structural change in a multisector model of growth we study a multi sector model of growth with differences in tfp growth rates across sectors and derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of structural change characterized by sectoral labour reallocation and constant aggregate growth path the conditions are weak restrictions on the utility and production functions commonly applied by macroeconomists we present evidence from us two digit industries that is consistent with our predictions about structural change and successfully calibrate the historical shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services we show quantitatively that reasonable deviations from our conditions do not have a big impact on the properties of the model

inventory decisions for substitutable products with stock dependent demand abstract we study a retailer s inventory policy for two products the products are substitutable and have inventory dependent demand so a higher inventory level of a product increases its sales we model the joint effect of demand stimulation and product substitution on inventory decisions by considering a single period stochastic demand setting we provide the first order optimality conditions for the profit maximizing order quantities and interpret them using marginal analysis we also consider two heuristic solutions that separately account for either demand stimulation or product substitution our numerical analysis reveals that the optimal policy by appropriately using sales information that quantifies substitution and demand stimulation can produce significantly higher profits the profit benefits are lessened under certain circumstances such as when the two products have similar critical fractile values suggesting that in such instances the heuristics may be used effectively

component rationing for available to promise scheduling in configure to order systems abstract we address the problem of rationing common components among multiple products in a configure to order system with order configuration uncertainty the objective of this problem is to maximize expected revenue by implementing a threshold rationing policy under this policy a product is available to promise if fulfilling the order for the product will not cause the inventory of any one of its required components to fall below the component s threshold level for that product the problem is modeled as a two stage stochastic integer program and solved using the sample average approximation approach a heuristic is developed to generate good feasible solutions and lower bound estimates using industry data we examine the benefit of component rationing as compared to a first come first served policy and show that this benefit is correlated to the average revenue per product and the variability in the revenue across products whose components are constrained

beyond balanced growth balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well known kaldor facts regarding economic growth these models however are inconsistent with one of the most striking regularities of the growth process the massive reallocation of labour from agriculture into manufacturing and services this paper presents a simple model consistent with both the kaldor facts and the dynamics of sectoral labour reallocation

population age structure and consumption expenditure composition evidence from european countries abstract this paper aims at evaluating the effect of population age structure on households aggregate preferences and through this channel on the sectoral composition of the final consumption expenditure the analysis of european coicop 2 digit data shows that the contribution of demographic dynamics to model fit is highly relevant only slightly lower than the contribution of the income effect

the effects of male and female labor supply on commodity demands we examine the effects of male and female labor supply on household demands and present a simple and robust test for the separability of commodity demands from labor supply using data on individual households from six years of the uk fes we estimate a demand system for seven goods which includes hours and participation dummies as conditioning variables allowance is made for the possible endogeneity of these conditioning labor supply variables we find that separability is rejected furthermore we present evidence that ignoring the effects of labor supply leads to bias in the parameter estimates

dynamic capacity management with general upgrading this paper studies a capacity management problem with upgrading a firm needs to procure multiple classes of capacities and then allocate the capacities to satisfy multiple classes of customers that arrive over time a general upgrading rule is considered i e unmet demand can be satisfied using multistep upgrade no replenishment is allowed and the firm has to make the allocation decisions without observing future demand we first characterize the structure of the optimal allocation policy which consists of parallel allocation and then sequential rationing specifically the firm first uses capacity to satisfy the same class demand as much as possible then considers possible upgrading decisions in a sequential manner we also propose a heuristic based on certainty equivalence control to solve the problem numerical analysis shows that the heuristic is fast and delivers close to optimal profit for the firm finally we conduct extensive numerical studies to derive insights into the problem it is foun

tactical inventory and backorder decisions for systems with predictable production yield abstract we consider a manufacturing system with stochastic demand and predictable production yield the manufacturer has predetermined prices and limited production capacity in each period the manufacturer also has the option to save some inventory for future periods even if there is demand in the current period the demand that is not met is lost or may be backordered for only one period our objective is to maximize the expected profit by choosing optimal produce up to level y t save s t and backorder quantities b t in each period t we formulate this problem as a markov decision process where the state of the system is represented by the net inventory and the yield rate we show that a modified order up to policy y t s t b t is optimal in each period t we also perform computational analysis to examine the effects of production yield on the optimal decisions

yield and allocation management in a continuous make to stock system with demand upgrade substitution abstract yield management is crucial for high tech industries to reduce over production however it is very challenging for a manufacturer to make a yield decision under the circumstance of uncertain demand and stochastic product quality for example in semiconductor manufacturing industry products are produced in batches within certain production cycle time even if the same raw material is put into the production system the product qualities measured by performance usually are not identical due to random yield in the manufacturing process since products have overlapped performance specifications products of the same batch are classified into different classes according to their qualities at the allocation stage products with higher performance can substitute for demand for products with lower performance this type of production and allocation system can be specified as a make to stock system with single material multi products multi periods upward demand substitution under random yield and uncertain demands in order to maximize profit the manufacturer needs to decide on the optimal input material quantity and the optimal allocation policy the problem is formulated as a stochastic dynamic programming model because manufacturer s profit is affected by the allocation policies atp r allocation policy is proposed to help manufacturer make real time allocation decisions a numerical experiment shows that atp r allocation policy performs better than the traditional myopic allocation policy to reduce the computation burden involved in atp r allocation policy we further propose a simplified algorithm and our experimental studies provide proof of the effectiveness of the proposed simple algorithm

can traditional theories of structural change fit the data two traditional explanations for structural changes are sector biased technological progress and non homothetic preferences this paper integrates both into an otherwise standard growth model and quantitatively evaluates them vis a vis time series the exercise identifies a set of puzzles for standard theories i the model cannot account for the steep decline in manufacturing and rise in services in the later data ii the standard model requires implausibly low elasticity of substitution across goods to match the consumption and output data and iii the behavior of consumption and output shares differs significantly from that of employment shares we argue that models that incorporate home production sector specific factor distortions and differences across sectors in the accumulation of human capital are promising avenues to amend the standard models jel o11 o14 o41

policy implications of considering pre commitments in u s aggregate energy demand system abstract linear approximations of the generalized almost ideal demand system and almost ideal demand system for u s energy are compared to contrast the explicit inclusion and exclusion of pre committed consumption levels results indicate that pre commitment levels the quantity of a good that is consumed in the short run with little regard for price helps to better explain energy demand in the u s compared to the system that does not explicitly consider pre commitments policy implications are if pre commitments are a legitimate assumption larger price changes are necessary to achieve a given policy objective than if there are no pre commitments

structural change in an interdependent world a global view of manufacturing decline this paper presents a simple model of the world economy in which productivity gains in manufacturing are responsible for the global trend of manufacturing decline and yet in a cross section of countries faster productivity gains in manufacturing do not necessarily imply faster declines in manufacturing in doing so it aims to draw attention to the common pitfall of using the cross country evidence to test a closed economy model and argues for a global perspective in order to understand cross country patterns of structural change one needs a world economy model in which the interdependence across countries is explicitly spelled out jel f43 o11 o14 o19

newsvendor model with random supply and financial hedging utility based approach abstract this paper takes a utility based approach to the single period and single item newsvendor model unlike most models in the literature the newsvendor is not necessarily risk neutral and chooses the order quantity that maximizes the expected utility of the cash flow at the end of the period we suppose that there is uncertainty in demand as well as supply furthermore random demand and supply may be correlated with the financial markets the newsvendor exploits this correlation and manages his risks by investing in a portfolio of financial instruments the decision problem therefore includes not only the determination of the optimal ordering policy but also the selection of the optimal portfolio at the same time we first use a minimum variance approach to select the portfolio the analysis results in some interesting and explicit characterizations on the structure of the optimal policy we also present numerical examples to illustrate the effects of the parameters on the optimal order quantity and the importance of financial hedging on risk reduction

can total factor productivity explain value added growth in services abstract this paper examines the factors responsible for generating the services led growth witnessed in the indian economy during 1980 2005 a sectoral growth accounting exercise shows that total factor productivity tfp growth was the fastest for services moreover this tfp increase was significant in accounting for service sector value added growth a growth model with agriculture industry and services as three principal sectors is calibrated to indian data using sectoral tfp growth rates the baseline model performs well in accounting for the evolution of value added shares and their growth rates but is unable to capture sectoral employment share trends the performance of the model with respect to value added shares improves when the post 1991 increase in service sector tfp growth following the inception of market based liberalization reforms is accounted for a modified version of the model with public capital can better track trends in sectoral employment shares

co production processes with random yields in the semiconductor industry a wide variety of manufacturing operations can be characterized as co production with substitutable demand that is there are many situations in which the availability of two or more items are related and because of randomness in either supply or demand it can be advantageous to substitute one of these items for another our research was motivated by the semiconductor industry where chips are produced in large batches because of the presence of randomness in the process individual chips in a given batch can perform differently because some customers have stricter specifications than others chips within the same batch can be classified and sold as different products according to their measurable performance we model the production and inventory problem as a stochastic dynamic program in which the objective is to minimize the costs of meeting contractual obligations after developing heuristic methods of solving the problem in practice we validate them against a lower bound on the cost of an optim

estimation of complete demand systems from household budget data the linear and quadratic expenditure systems in this paper we explore two issues in empirical demand analysis the estimation of complete systems of demand equations using household budget data section i and the incorporation of demographic characteristics into such systems section ii although there are numerous studies which use time series data to estimate complete demand systems and many which estimate engel curves from household budget data there are virtually none which combine budget data from different periods to estimate complete systems since each budget study corresponds to a single price situation one might conjecture that estimation of complete systems would not be possible unless budget studies were available from a large number of periods this is incorrect in section i we argue that interesting complete demand systems can be estimated from a small number of budget studies despite the limited price variability represented in such data to demonstrate this we use budget study data for two periods to estimate a pair of related demand systems the familiar linear expenditure system les and a quadratic expenditure system qes a generalization of les in which the demand equations are quadratic in total expenditure the inclusion of demographic variables in the analysis of household consumption patterns is desirable because there are likely to be systematic differences in the consumption behavior of households with different demographic characteristics but the effects of demographic characteristics have seldom been studied within the framework of complete demand systems in section ii we propose translating as a general method for incorporating demographic variables into complete systems of demand equations this method has not previously been discussed as a general technique for bringing demographic variables into demand systems although it has been employed in several studies to improve the estimates of the les and the qes presented in section i we reestimate these two systems using translating to incorporate family size