elements for the development of public policies in the residential sector of mexico based in the energy reform and the energy transition law abstract mexico has entered in an important dynamic of structural changes in the energy area proof of this it is the energy reform 2013 and the energy transition law published the last december 24th 2015 thus it is important to carry out studies of the impacts of future politics in the consumption of the population so this study estimate an energy demand system using microdata collected from 97 817 households in a national households income and expenditure survey enigh acronyms in spanish encuesta nacional de ingresos y gastos de los hogares in the 20 years period from 1994 to 2014 the magnitudes of all the fuels are smaller than one indicating that electricity lpg gasoline and public transport are normal goods while lpg is the most inelastic energy source the geographic factor shows that households in the north of mexico tend to consume more gasoline whereas in the south of the country the lowest share of lpg expenditure is reported the rigorous evaluation of energy demanded in households will help policy makers to put forward more efficient reforms

how do household characteristics affect appliance usage application of conditional demand analysis to japanese household data abstract although both appliance ownership and usage patterns determine residential electricity consumption it is less known how households actually use their appliances in this study we conduct conditional demand analyses to break down total household electricity consumption into a set of demand functions for electricity usage across 12 appliance categories we then examine how the socioeconomic characteristics of the households explain their appliance usage analysis of micro level data from the nation survey of family and expenditure in japan reveals that the family and income structure of households affect appliance usage specifically we find that the presence of teenagers increases both air conditioner and dishwasher use labor income and nonlabor income affect microwave usage in different ways air conditioner usage decreases as the wife s income increases and microwave usage decreases as the husband s income increases furthermore we find that households use more electricity with new personal computers than old ones this implies that the replacement of old personal computers increases electricity consumption

household electricity demand revisited respond to price changes this paper develops a model for evaluating the effects of alternative tariff designs on electricity use the model concurrently addresses several interrelated difficulties posed by nonlinear pricing heterogeneity in consumer price sensitivity and consumption aggregation over appliances and time we estimate the model using extensive data for a representative sample of 1300 california households the results imply a strikingly skewed distribution of household electricity price elasticities in the population with a small fraction of households accounting for most aggregate demand response we then estimate the aggregate and distributional consequences of recent tariff structure changes recent efforts to restructure electricity markets have renewed interest in electricity demand and pricing this interest reflects a broad desire to improve the efficiency of electricity markets and policy makers concerns over the impact of price changes on consumers how new pricing mechanisms would affect households consumption and expenditures is a matter of considerable uncertainty however this uncertainty has provoked controversy and debate in the regulatory policy arena hampering market reforms using econometric methods to assess the effects of electricity price changes presents several challenges these include the nonlinear structure of tariff schedules aggregation of metered consumption behaviour over time and appliances and the interdependence of energy use with longer term household decisions over appliance ownership and dwelling characteristics the first two issues introduce complex simultaneity problems between marginal prices and consumption the third issue imposes high data requirements information on household specific appliance holdings and residence features and creates heterogeneity in consumption responses related to the characteristics of these durable goods when the researcher s objective is to develop a model for simulating the effects of prospective tariff changes ignoring these issues will provide an incomplete assessment of demand responses and potentially misleading predictions of a new tariff s consumption and revenue consequences in this paper we estimate a model of household electricity demand that can be used

an empirical study on the rebound effect considering capital costs technological progress is one of the means of reducing energy usage and carbon dioxide co2 emissions however this reduction in turn leads to a reduction in the real cost of energy services per unit which results in an increase in the demand for energy services therefore a reduction in the anticipated co2 emissions caused by a technological improvement might be partially offset in response to the cost reduction previous studies have referred to this effect as the rebound effect a large amount of empirical evidence on the rebound effect exists however most of these studies assume an exogenous improvement in energy efficiency and thus capital costs that may decrease the magnitude of the rebound effect are not taken into account expressly this paper extends the scope of the research conducted by brannlund et al brannlund r ghalwash t nordstrom j 2007 increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect effects on consumption and emissions energy economics 29 1 17 in terms of two aspects i considering capital costs explicitly as additional capital costs and ii adapting an iterating procedure and estimating the rebound effect using japanese household data as a result of our empirical analysis we conclude that the rebound is approximately 27 however we also find that ignoring additional capital costs leads to an increase in the rebound effect in the case of japanese households the magnitude of the rebound effect increases to approximately 115 moreover our simulation study shows that only a one time iteration of brannlund et al brannlund r ghalwash t nordstrom j 2007 increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect effects on consumption and emissions energy economics 29 1 17 may lead to a biased result

the welfare effects of energy price changes due to energy market reform in mexico abstract despite being a large energy producer and exporter mexico may soon become a net total energy importer due to a decline in oil reserves and increasing domestic consumption to increase efficiency in the energy market mexican authorities approved a constitutional amendment aiming to open the state run energy markets to competition in 2013 the reform is expected to raise efficiency and to lower energy prices in the long run however it will take some time for the new institutional arrangements to settle and the reform objectives to materialize the removal of subsidies which is expected to take place after the reform will also raise prices particularly in the short run in this paper we analyze the effect of likely energy price changes due to energy market reform on household consumption and welfare in different income groups we estimate the quaids model using the nonlinear sure method and the mexican household budget surveys for the period 2002 2012 to obtain elasticities the results show great heterogeneity in elasticities across energy types and income groups specifically energy demand is elastic with respect to income but changes in prices have mixed effects among energy types the welfare effect of the price changes on low income households will be 9 times stronger than that on the mid income households and 18 times on and the high income households this warrants a compensation package to make the reform socially acceptable

the structure of energy efficiency investment in the uk households and its average monetary and environmental savings abstract socioeconomic and behavioural variables that influence the household s adoption of energy efficiency measures such as cavity and loft insulation and upgrades to the boiler are identified contrary to previous literature by extending brechling and smith s 1994 and hassett and metcalf s 1995 models it is shown that the application of the energy act 2011 which contains provisions on the green deal the new energy company obligation eco and the private rented sector needs to follow a tailored strategy to reach the low adoption households identified by my model moreover for the current adopters of the analysed measures average monetary and environmental adoption benefits are estimated based on parti and parti s 1980 demand model these estimates are smaller than their expected values showing an important energy efficiency gap in the sector particularly low cost measures can bring important savings that can help to meet the pay as you save rule i e the golden rule of the new regulation my model also shows that a poor state of dwelling repair can reduce the adoption benefits increasing the need of subsidies that will be financed through consumer s energy bills however this can increase the number of households in fuel poverty

ordered logit model for residential electricity demand in korea abstract in this study we apply the ordered logit model to estimate the individual household electricity demand in korea using the energy census data conducted by korea energy economics institute in 1990 our analysis is based on the disaggregate micro data while most of the other studies on residential electricity demand use aggregate data we extract the representative household behaviour for electricity demand we propose how to aggregate the residential electricity demand from this disaggregate analysis by applying the probability model this method provides us reasonably accurate values comparing with the actual ones

energy consumption and urban sprawl evidence for the spanish case residential electricity consumption constitutes one of the largest sources of spanish final energy demand to improve electricity savings policies oriented towards efficiency in residential consumption such as replacement of appliances or the construction of nearly zero energy buildings have been suggested and implemented however the potential relevance of urban structural characteristics such as the increase in detached houses in sprawling residential areas has not often been considered the aim of this research is to analyse the relevance of living in a detached house located in a dispersed urban area to household electricity consumption thus an electricity consumption model is estimated by using household socioeconomic variables and including urban characteristics as its determinants such us the level of urban agglomeration or whether families live in detached sprawling homes the model is estimated by using 2014 household budget survey hbs microdata and applying ordinary least squares ols as well as quantile regressions qr as econometric procedures endogeneity problems are corrected by means of instrumental variables the results confirm that living in a detached house significantly increases electricity consumption whereas urban agglomerations have the opposite effect sprawl is occurring rapidly in spanish cities and according to our results it could constitute a relevant source of increase in electricity demand in the following years

evaluating consumption and cost savings from new air conditioner purchases the case of singapore abstract air conditioning ac is a major source of household electricity consumption in singapore and there is evidence that the efficiency of acs could be improved substantially employing 45 months of energy bills and survey data and the fixed effects difference in differences estimator we calculated a savings of 7 8 of total energy consumption after the purchase of a more efficient ac compared to an estimated expected savings of 12 6 this suggests a rebound or take back of savings around 38 2 such a less than 100 of theoretical savings achieved is in line with other outside singapore estimates and economic behavioural theory since after purchasing a new ac households may i use a lower temperature setting or ii use the ac longer in order to 1 fulfil previously unmet demand and or 2 respond to the effective lower costs of running the ac our results have implications for both energy efficiency labelling policies and for singapore s recently implemented carbon tax

heating technology and energy use a discrete continuous choice approach to norwegian household energy demand abstract the aim of this paper is to describe the structure of the household s energy demand as a discrete continuous choice and on this basis establish an econometric model suitable for the data available in the norwegian energy surveys the discrete appliance choice is specified as a multinomial logit model with a mixture of appliance attributes operating costs and individual characteristics income housing unit characteristics etc as explanatory variables in the next step the continuous choice of energy use is modelled conditional on the appliance choice the energy prices turn out to be significant both when estimating the appliance choice and the conditional energy demand the estimated price elasticity for energy exceeds minus unity the paper discusses how this relatively strong price response should be interpreted in the context of other econometric analysis with no explicit appliance dependence finally the significance of the many household characteristics at both stages of the model signals a high degree of heterogeneity within the households which justifies the use of detailed micro data in the modelling of the energy demand

household and industrial electricity demand in europe abstract this paper examines the electricity demand and its determinants in 29 european countries during the liberalization of the electricity market based on panel data for these countries for the years 1995 2015 and using a dynamic partial adjustment model price elasticities are estimated for both residential and industrial electricity demand these elasticities and effects of other variables on electricity consumption are estimated using both gmm generalized method of moments and ml maximum likelihood approaches it is found that the price elasticities are very small especially in the short run while the income elasticities are relatively large especially for households and in the long run

seasonality in dynamic regression models this paper examines the implications of treating seasonality as an unobserved component which changes slowly over time this approach simplifies the specification of dynamic relationships by separating non seasonal from seasonal factors we illustrate this approach using the consumption model of davidson et al 1978 and estimate a stable error correction model between consumption income and prices over the period 1958 92 more generally we argue that autoregressive models are unlikely to successfully model slowly changing seasonality and may confound seasonal effects with the dynamic responses of prime interest our approach can be used in a wide range of cases and we show that there is little loss in efficiency even if seasonality is deterministic

household electricity end use consumption results from econometric and engineering models information about total electricity consumption is available for most households however the electricity consumption related to different end uses e g space heating lighting and services from household appliances are usually not metered metering data are costly to achieve and in this paper we study two methods for end use estimation which can be applied on household data for appliance holdings demographic and economic variables the first method is the engineering model which has been used to calculate the so far only documented norwegian end use results applied on data from a norwegian energy survey the second method is an econometric conditional demand model applied on data from the same survey we compare the numerical results from the two models and give some recommendations regarding choice of end use approach and what questions to implement in household surveys designed to disaggregate electricity consumption

price sensitivity of residential energy consumption in norway abstract the main aim of this paper is to test the stability of the results of a model which focus on the relationship between the choice of heating equipment and the residential energy consumption the results for the income and energy price variables are of special interest stability in the time dimension is tested by applying the model on micro data for each of the years 1993 1995 the parameter estimates are stable within a 95 confidence interval however the estimated impact of the energy price variable on energy consumption was considerably weaker in 1994 than in 1993 and 1995 the results for two different income groups in the pooled data set are also subject to stability testing the energy price sensitivity in residential energy consumption is found to be higher for high income households than for low income households

replacement or additional purchase the impact of energy efficient appliances on household electricity saving under public pressures abstract this study examined the influence of additional and replacement purchases of energy efficient air conditioners on power savings we used a questionnaire survey and measured electricity use data from 339 japanese households collected from two city areas with different level of government requested electricity saving rates namely osaka 10 and matsuyama 5 the main findings of our study are as follows 1 households that purchased energy efficient air conditioners saved more electricity than those that did not 2 additional purchase households showed significant energy savings whereas replacement households did not the rebound effect may negate the energy saving effects of a new air conditioner 3 altruistic attitude is associated with more active participation in power saving 4 households in osaka saved more electricity than those in matsuyama probably because the government call to save electricity was more forceful

residential electricity demand dynamics in turkey abstract this article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1968 2005 using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration the computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and as expected the long run elasticities are greater than the short run elasticities an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity income price and urbanization in the long run causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income price and urbanization to residential energy but the short run causality tests are inconclusive the parameter stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested the results of these tests display a stable pattern

determinants of residential space heating expenditures in germany abstract we first examine the determinants of household expenditures on space heating and hot water supply in germany a number of socio economic characteristics of households are included along with building characteristics our analysis covers information on more than 12 000 households in germany for the years 1998 and 2003 the analysis continues by investigating whether different kinds of households are affected differently by increases in energy prices households in owner occupied properties are less affected compared to those in rented accommodation this could be because owners are more likely to have installed energy efficient heating and hot water supply systems and landlords have less of an incentive to improve the conditions of their rented accommodations an energy policy targeting especially the latter group might benefit not only households in rented accommodation but might also increase energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well

building vintage and electricity use old homes use less electricity in hot weather abstract this paper studies whether electricity use in newer or older residential buildings rises more in response to high temperature in a region of southern california peak electricity demand occurs at the highest temperatures which are predicted to increase due to climate change understanding how newer buildings differ from older buildings improves forecasts of how peak electricity use will grow over time newer buildings are subject to stricter building energy codes but are larger and more likely to have air conditioning hence the cumulative effect is ambiguous this paper combines four large datasets of building and household characteristics weather data and utility data to estimate the electricity temperature response of different building vintages estimation results show that new buildings 1970 2000 have a statistically significantly higher temperature response i e use more electricity than old buildings pre1970 auxiliary regressions with controls for tiered electricity prices number of bedrooms income square footage central air conditioning ownership and type of residential structure partially decompose the effect though california has had extensive energy efficiency building standards that by themselves would lower temperature response for new buildings the cumulative effect of new buildings is an increase in temperature response as new buildings are added aggregate temperature response is predicted to increase

a national micro data based model of residential electricity demand new evidence on seasonal variation building on earlier estimates of electricity demand the author estimates elasticities by month to determine differences between heating and cooling seasons he develops a three equation model of residential electricity demand that includes all the main components of economic theory the model generates seasonal elasticity estimates that generally support economic theory based on the model using a national current household data set monthly division the evidence indicates there is a seasonal pattern for price elasticity of demand while less pronounced there also appears to be seasonal patterns for cross price elasticity of alternative fuels for the elasticity of appliance stock index and for an intensity of use variable

estimation of residential electricity demand in hong kong under electricity charge subsidies abstract over the past decade the hong kong hk government provided electricity charges subsidies for residential accounts to alleviate the burden of inflation and later the burden of economic downturn in this study we estimate an econometric model of residential electricity demand and test the existence of a stable long run relationship for the period 1980 2016 while accounting for the relief measures set out by the hk government since 2008 empirical results suggest that there exists a long run relationship among residential electricity consumption electricity price income per capita and weather variables temperature or cooling degree days in the absence of electricity charge subsidies the demand is found to be both price and income inelastic on the other hand hk s residential electricity consumers are unresponsive to price and income changes when electricity subsidies are in place following its new carbon reduction plan hk is gradually phasing out coal for electricity generation to replace it mainly with natural gas our results suggest that new residential electricity charge subsidies can lessen the effectiveness of6 climate policies aimed at reducing electricity consumption through increases in the electricity price

modelling residential electricity demand in the gcc countries abstract this paper aims at understanding the drivers of residential electricity demand in the gulf cooperation council countries by applying the structural time series model in addition to the economic variables of gdp and real electricity prices the model accounts for population weather and a stochastic underlying energy demand trend as a proxy for efficiency and human behaviour the resulting income and price elasticities are informative for policy makers given the paucity of previous estimates for a region with particular political structures and economies subject to large shocks in particular the estimates allow for a sound assessment of the impact of energy related policies suggesting that if policy makers in the region wish to curtail future residential electricity consumption they would need to improve the efficiency of appliances and increase energy using awareness of consumers possibly by education and marketing campaigns moreover even if prices were raised the impact on curbing residential electricity growth in the region is likely to be very small given the low estimated price elasticities unless that is prices were raised so high that expenditure on electricity becomes such a large proportion of income that the price elasticities increase in absolute terms

heterogeneity in german residential electricity consumption a quantile regression approach abstract in the absence of sufficient coverage of metering data on the electricity consumption of individual devices this paper estimates the contribution of individual appliances to overall household electricity consumption drawing on the most recent wave of the german residential energy consumption survey grecs moving beyond the standard focus of estimating mean effects we combine the conditional demand approach with quantile regression methods to capture the heterogeneity in electricity consumption rates of individual appliances our results indicate substantial differences in these rates as well as the end use shares across households originating from the opposite tails of the electricity consumption distribution this outcome highlights the added value of applying quantile regression methods in estimating consumption rates of electric appliances and indicates some scope for realizing conservation potentials

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

estimating end use demand a bayesian approach eliminating negative end use or appliance consumption estimates and incorporating direct metering information into the process of generating these estimates these are two important aspects of conditional demand analysis that will be the focus of this article in both cases a bayesian approach seems a natural way of proceeding what needs to be investigated is whether it is also a viable and effective approach in addition such a framework naturally lends itself to prediction our application involves the estimation of electrical appliance consumptions for a sample of australian households this application is designed to illustrate the viability of a full bayesian analysis of the problem

the rebound effect microeconomic definitions limitations and extensions abstract the rebound effect results in part from an increased consumption of energy services following an improvement in the technical efficiency of delivering those services this increased consumption offsets the energy savings that may otherwise be achieved if the rebound effect is sufficiently large it may undermine the rationale for policy measures to encourage energy efficiency the nature and magnitude of the rebound effect is the focus of long running dispute with energy economics this paper brings together previous theoretical work to provide a rigorous definition of the rebound effect to clarify key conceptual issues and to highlight the potential consequences of various assumptions for empirical estimates of the effect the focus is on the direct rebound effect for a single energy service indirect and economy wide rebound effects are not discussed beginning with khazzoom s original definition of the rebound effect we expose the limitations of three simplifying assumptions on which this definition is based first we argue that capital costs form an important part of the total cost of providing energy services and that empirical studies that estimate rebound effects from variations in energy prices are prone to bias second we argue that energy efficiency should be treated as an endogenous variable and that empirical estimates of the rebound effect may need to apply a simultaneous equation model to capture the joint determination of key variables third we explore the implications of the opportunity costs of time in the production of energy services and highlight the consequences for energy use of improved time efficiency the influence of time costs on the rebound effect and the existence of a parallel rebound effect with respect to time each of these considerations serves to highlight the difficulties in obtaining reliable estimates of the rebound effect and the different factors that need to be controlled for we discuss the implications of these findings for econometric studies and argue that several existing studies may overestimate the magnitude of the effect

energy consumption for space heating a discrete continuous approach energy demand for space heating is estimated using a discrete continuous choice model which focuses on the relationship between the choice of heating equipment and energy consumption the model is estimated on norwegian micro data and the two stages of the model are estimated simultaneously the capital cost and the operating cost of the heating systems are both found to have a significant impact on the choice of heating system furthermore the results show that household characteristics are important variables in residential energy models energy price elasticities and income elasticities are also estimated

deterministic and stochastic trends in the time series models a guide for the applied economist applied economists working with time series data face a dilemma in selecting between models with deterministic and stochastic trends while models with deterministic trends are widely used models with stochastic trends are not so well known in an influential paper harvey 1997 strongly advocates a structural time series approach with stochastic trends in place of the widely used autoregressive models based on unit root tests and cointegration techniques therefore it is important to understand their relative merits this article suggests that both methodologies are useful and they may perform differently in different models this article provides a few guidelines to the applied economists to understand these alternative methods

modeling household energy expenditure in the united states abstract energy consumption is one of the main source of air pollution greenhouse gas emission and global warming reducing household energy consumption is a key goal of policymakers we develop statistical models using socio economics and demographics building characteristics location temperature and energy prices to estimate household energy expenditure in the u s we use household energy expenditure for more than 560 000 households in the u s from 2010 to 2012 we first employ multivariate regression models to investigate and identify the impacts of the explanatory variables on household energy expenditure next we use principal component analysis pca to convert correlated co linear explanatory variables into orthogonal components and estimate household energy expenditure by principal component regression we find newer attached buildings to be effective in decreasing household energy expenditure particularly among educated people in metropolitan areas with sufficient data availability our model could be used by state regional or even city level policymakers and planners to optimize their infrastructural investments

the determinants of household energy demand in rural beijing can environmentally friendly technologies be effective with the recent rapid economic growth total energy demand in rural china has increased dramatically and the energy structure is in the transition from non commercial to commercial sources simultaneously it is expected that households in rural areas will face energy shortages and additional environmental problems unless they have more access to renewable energy technologies however little is known about i the transition of energy use patterns and ii whether introduced technologies have been effective to analyze these issues we estimated the energy demands of rural households by using survey data taken from beijing s ten suburban districts the data contain information on both non commercial and commercial energy use key characteristics of the households and several renewable energy technologies our empirical analysis yielded three main results first the per capita income is a key factor in the per capita energy consumption more specifically the marginal increase or marginal change in per capita coal consumption strongly diminishes or declines as per capita income increases second coal and liquefied petroleum gas lpg prices do not exhibit substitution effects but an increase in these prices has strong negative effects on the use of these energy resources third renewable energy technologies are identified to reduce coal consumption and to improve energy efficiency overall these findings suggest a positive perspective if the chinese government were to design appropriate policies associated with renewable energy technologies and related energy prices then coal consumption can be reduced in the near future and the substitution to cleaner energy use will accelerate therefore a smooth energy transition in rural china could be made in a more environmentally sustainable manner

identifying electricity saving potential in rural china empirical evidence from a household survey in recent years there has been a fast growing body of literature examining energy saving potential in relation to electricity however empirical studies focusing on non western nations are limited to fill this gap this study intends to examine the electricity saving potential of rural households in china using a unique data set from the china residential electricity consumption survey crecs in collaboration with the china general social survey cgss conducted nationwide at the household level in rural china we use a stochastic frontier model which allows us to decompose residential electricity consumption into the minimum necessary amount of consumption based on physical characteristics e g house size house age number of televisions or refrigerators and estimate the consumption slack i e the amount of electricity consumption that could be saved which depends on various factors we find that rural households in china are generally efficient in electricity saving and the saving potential is affected by fast information feedback and social demographic characteristics instead of by the averaged electricity price or energy efficiency labelling signals in addition we find no evidence of regional heterogeneity on electricity saving potential for rural households policy implications are derived

understanding the spectrum of residential energy saving behaviours french evidence using disaggregated data analysing household energy saving behaviours is crucial to improve energy consumption predictions and energy policy making how should we quantitatively measure them what are their determinants this study explores the main factors influencing residential energy saving behaviours based on a bottom up multivariate statistical approach using data from the recent french phebus survey firstly we assess energy saving behaviours on a one dimension scale using irt secondly we use linear regression with an innovative variable selection method via adaptive lasso to tease out the effects of both macro and micro factors on the behavioural score the results highlight the impact of five main attributes incentivizing energy saving behaviours based on cross variable analyses energy price household income education level age of head of household and dwelling energy performance in addition our results suggest that the analysis of the inverted u shape impact of age enables the expansion of the energy consumption life cycle theory to energy saving behaviours abstract analysing household energy saving behaviours is crucial to improve energy consumption predictions and energy policy making how should we quantitatively measure them what are their determi nants this study explores the main factors influencing residential energy saving behaviours based on a bottom up multivariate statistical approach using data from the recent french phebus survey firstly we assess energy saving behaviours on a one dimension scale using irt secondly we use linear regression with an innovative variable selection method via adaptive lasso to tease out the effects of both macro and micro factors on the behavioural score the results highlight the impact of five main attributes incentivizing energy saving behaviours based on cross variable analyses energy price household income education level age of head of household and dwelling energy performance in addition our results suggest that the analysis of the inverted u shape impact of age enables the expansion of the energy consumption life cycle theory to energy saving behaviours

a multiple source of innovation model of agricultural research and technology promotion abstract two models of agricultural research and technology diffusion are described and contrasted the central source of innovation model frequently underlies the theories and rhetoric of agricultural research and extension institutions the multiple source of innovation model places agricultural research and diffusion processes in the historical political economic agroclimatic and institutional context in which technological change takes place the paper discusses the evidence and reasons for the dominance of the central model and reviews the significance of the multiple source model for agricultural research policy

determinants of residential space heating expenditures in great britain in great britain several policy measures have been implemented in order to increase energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions in the domestic sector this could for example be achieved by improving space heating efficiency and thus decreasing heating expenditure however in order to efficiently design and implement such policy measures a better understanding of the determinants affecting heating expenditure is needed in this paper we examine the following determinants socio economic factors building characteristics heating technologies and weather conditions in contrast to most other studies we use panel data to investigate household demand for heating in great britain our data sample is the result of an annual set of interviews with more than 5000 households starting in 1991 and ending in 2005 the sample represents a total of 64 000 observations over the fifteen year period our aim is to derive price and income elasticities both for britain as a whole and for different types of household our results suggest that differences exist between owner occupied and renter households these households react differently to changes in income and prices our results also imply that a number of socio economic criteria have a significant influence on heating expenditure independently of the fuel used for heating understanding the impacts of different factors on heating expenditure and impact differences between types of household is helpful in designing target oriented policy measures

the ex post impact of an energy tax on household energy demand this paper presents an econometric study dealing with household demand for energy in the netherlands the main objective of the paper is to present an estimation of the actual impact of an already implemented energy tax introduced in the netherlands in 1996 the approach differs from the existing literature in that 1 it uses panel data for the same period in which the tax was introduced and 2 it estimates a demand function that controls for a large set of variables such as outside temperature type of house and of house insulation household cooking behavior and an extensive number of durable goods and electrical appliances the study concludes that in the short term the energy tax had a small but significant impact on energy consumption in the netherlands concretely the yearly average demand reduction was of 8 for electricity and 4 4 for gas additionally the influence of variables other than price and income on household energy demand is discussed using this information the impact that the energy tax had on household energy use can be compared with the energy reduction that could have been achieved when using other policy instruments

voluntary electricity conservation of households after the great east japan earthquake a stated preference analysis abstract this paper examines the voluntary electricity saving awareness of households after the great east japan earthquake and the subsequent accident at the fukushima nuclear power station we conduct a conjoint analysis of consumer stated preferences for the settings of air conditioners refrigerators and the standby power of electrical appliances based on a web questionnaire survey administered in the areas supplied by the tokyo electric power company tepco and kansai electric power company kepco the main findings of this paper are as follows first we observe awareness of voluntary electricity conservation among the households in both the tepco and kepco areas after the disasters second awareness of voluntary power saving is higher in the tepco area which has been directly affected by the electric power shortages in comparison with the kepco area where there was no such direct impact third if power prices are to be further raised the consumer responses to the price changes would be small in both areas furthermore we show that the potential voluntary reduction in electric power consumption of a household in the tepco area is 26 more than that in the kepco area during the summer peak periods

a review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting abstract electricity consumption data is regarded as nonlinear non stationary series and is often made up by a superposition of several distinct frequencies thus most of the conventional approaches currently employed for the modeling and forecasting involve great complexity and uncertainty recently fluctuation characteristic analysis has increasingly become essential step in the application of electricity demand forecasting yet the implementation of this analysis is an inherently difficult task to obtain reasonable accuracy and stability in the modeling there has been the tendency to accommodate multidimensional attributes of the consumption demands with decomposition based approach in terms of more advanced and hybrid form and the decomposition can be achieved through utilization of two different procedures namely component model based and frequency domain analysis based decomposition consequently a comprehensive review and summarization of decomposition based approach for the prediction is conducted in this paper more specifically the issues of demand forecasting classification the dependency between the electricity demand and external indicators features of various decomposition approach as well as the unique fluctuation characteristic of electricity demand at different time scales are discussed in addition future research directions of the decomposition based prediction approach are outlined

a reappraisal of the extent of world hunger abstract the variation between different estimates of the magnitude of the world food problem are enormous the author questions the basis of the major surveys of fao the world bank and usda and suggests that they have grossly overestimated the extent of worid hunger by analysing the connection between population food and economic participation a more realistic view is obtained suggesting a return to targeted assistance programmes for the improvement of maternal and child health

a review of time use models of residential electricity demand residential electricity demand in most european countries accounts for a major proportion of overall electricity consumption the timing of residential electricity demand has significant impacts on carbon emissions and system costs this paper reviews the data and methods used in time use studies in the context of residential electricity demand modelling it highlights key issues which are likely to become more topical for research on the timing of electricity demand following the roll out of smart metres

incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix the present work aims to examine the strategic decision of future electricity generation mix considering together with all other factors the effect of the external cost associated with the available power generation technology options not only during their operation but also during their whole life cycle the analysis has been performed by integrating the life cycle assessment concept into a linear programming model for the yearly decisions on which option should be used to minimize the electricity generation cost the model has been applied for the case of greece for the years 2012 2050 and has led to several interesting results firstly most of the new generating capacity should be renewable mostly biomass and wind while natural gas is usually the only conventional fuel technology chosen if externalities are considered wind energy increases its share and hydro power replaces significant amounts of biomass generated energy furthermore a sensitivity analysis has been performed one of the most important findings is that natural gas increases its contribution when externalities are increased summing up external cost has been found to be a significant percentage of the total electricity generation cost for some energy sources therefore significantly changing the ranking order of cost competitiveness for the energy sources examined

time saving innovations time allocation and energy use evidence from canadian households abstract time and energy are major inputs into the production of household goods and services as a result the market penetration of time saving technologies for general household use is expected to affect both a household s i allocation of time across home production and leisure activities and ii energy use for example with a household s adoption of a microwave or a dishwasher cooking food and washing dishes will require less time and therefore in home meal preparation may increase households with microwaves or dishwashers may also opt to spend more time undertaking other production activities inside or outside the home or engage in more leisure watching tv reading exercising to the extent that time is reallocated from less to more energy intensive activities in the home residential energy use will increase as households adopt appliances that embody time saving technology furthermore an adoption of time saving technologies for basic household chores such as meal preparation and laundry can impact energy use due to the fact that many time saving technologies are more energy intensive than alternative technologies that require larger time commitments in this paper we use the canadian survey of household energy use data from 2003 to examine the extent to which ownership of products that embody time saving innovations affects time allocation and energy use at the household level

estimation of elasticities for electricity demand in brazilian households and policy implications abstract this paper aims to identify the demand elasticity in energy consumption by brazilian families by using an original household level sample we are the first to identify the average price and income elasticities for brazil we also investigate heterogeneous effects across different quantiles through a quantile regression qr analysis finally we extend the results of the qr analysis and combine them with aggregated data to assess the effects of two price policies a cross subsidy and the recently adopted tariff flags the primary data comes from the household budget survey pof for two periods 1998 99 and 2008 13 conducted in the metropolitan area of sao paulo the price and income elasticities range from 0 46 to 0 56 and from 0 20 to 0 32 respectively the qr results indicate that households behavioral response to a price increase is non uniform across groups and that the reaction is stronger for the lower quantiles additionally tariff flags lead to a more significant reduction in consumption for the low income residences therefore representing a regressive policy on the other hand a cross subsidy that increases the energy price to ordinary residences by 1 could mean a decrease in electricity prices of between 7 5 and 12 4 to low income families

residential demand for fuelwood this is the first national microbased study of residential demand for wood as fuel the data are from the us department of energy residential energy consumption survey the model employs a somewhat unique interaction dummy for price that allows the simultaneity problem to be adjusted for in a 2sls format and then the interaction term to be calculated and entered in the second stage results are compared with elasticity estimates derived from the same data set for the four other main residential fuels wood has a price elasticity of 0 421 for main users

modelling and forecasting turkish residential electricity demand abstract this research investigates the relationship between turkish residential electricity consumption household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008 household total final consumption expenditure real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0 38 and 1 57 respectively and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being 0 09 and 0 38 respectively moreover the estimated underlying energy demand trend which as far as is known has not been investigated before for the turkish residential sector should be of some benefit to turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning it provides information about the impact of past policies the influence of technical progress the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure furthermore based on the estimated equation and different forecast assumptions it is predicted that turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 twh by 2020 compared to 40 twh in 2008

demand for space heating in apartment blocks measuring effects of policy measures aiming at reducing energy consumption abstract panel data covering the period 1984 1995 on energy consumption and technical characteristics of apartment blocks from denmark are analysed in order to measure effects of policy measures aimed at reducing the consumption of energy for space heating results indicate that building regulations have been important in reducing energy consumption in new buildings furthermore conditional price responses are estimated to be relatively small or non existent indicating small short run effects of fuel taxes on energy consumption in apartment blocks finally a consultancy scheme implemented with the purpose of improving knowledge about the potential for energy savings is found to have had moderate effects

household electricity and gas consumption for heating homes energy consumption has been drastically changed because of energy source depletion price fluctuations development and penetration of alternative energy sources and government policies household energy sources are interrelated and energy price and household characteristics such as income level and dwelling size affect the usage to supply energy consistently and achieve a balance between production and consumption stakeholders must understand consumer energy consumption behavior therefore this study identifies household heating energy usage patterns and the substitutive and or complementary relationships between electricity and gas based on a multiple discrete continuous extreme value model household utility structure is identified from data on gas heating usage results show greater utility and the smallest satiation values for gas boilers than for electric heaters and electric heating beds the effects of consumer socioeconomic and environmental characteristics on the choice of heating energy sources were analyzed also for further comparison the respondents were split into high and low categories for income heating degree days dwelling size and gas usage gas was found to be the most economical heating choice for households

willingness to pay for energy saving measures in residential buildings this paper uses a choice experiment to evaluate the consumers willingness to pay for energy saving measures in switzerland s residential buildings these measures include air renewal ventilation systems and insulation of windows and facades two groups of respondents consisting respectively of 163 apartment tenants and 142 house owners were asked to choose between their housing status quo and each one of the several hypothetical situations with different attributes and prices the estimation method is based on a fixed effects logit model the results suggest that the benefits of the energy saving attributes are significantly valued by the consumers these benefits include both individual energy savings and environmental benefits as well as comfort benefits namely thermal comfort air quality and noise protection

diagnostic checking of unobserved components time series models diagnostic checking of the specification of time series models is normally carried out using the innovations that is the one step ahead prediction errors in an unobserved components model other sets of residuals are available these auxiliary residuals are estimators of the disturbances associated with the unobserved components they can often yield information that is less apparent from the innovations but they suffer from the disadvantage that they are serially correlated even in a correctly specified model with known parameters this article shows how the properties of the auxiliary residuals may be obtained how they are related to each other and to the innovations and how they can be used to construct test statistics applications are presented showing how residuals can be used to detect and distinguish between outliers and structural change

household consumption of electricity in brazil between 1985 and 2013 abstract this article describes the electricity consumption in brazilian residences between 1985 and 2013 through linear regressions the explanatory variables considered were the number of households effective consumption of families as a proxy for family income and electricity tariff for households to deal with the power generation crisis of 2001 we have introduced a dummy variable in the form of a step function with such explanatory variables we were able to account for the reduction of household electricity consumption caused by the policies conducted in 2001 and their permanent consequences the regression presented coefficient of determination of 0 9892 and the several statistic tests conducted assured the existence of long term relation between the electricity consumption in residences and the explanatory variables the obtained elasticities for the household consumption of electricity with respect to number of residences family income and residential tariff of electricity were 1 534 0 095 0 189 0 049 and 0 230 0 060 respectively these results allowed understanding the evolution over time of the household consumption of electricity in brazil they suggest that the electric sector in brazil should pursue an active policy to manage demand of residential electricity using tariffs as a means to control it

underlying trends and seasonality in uk energy demand a sectoral analysis this paper demonstrates the importance for energy demand modelling of allowing for trends and seasonal effects that are stochastic in form inherent underlying trends may be non linear and reflect not only technical progress which usually produces greater energy efficiency but also other factors such as changes in consumer tastes and the economic structure that may be working in the opposite direction using quarterly unadjusted data for various sectors in the uk it is shown that unless energy demand models are formulated so as to allow for stochastic trends and seasonals estimates of price and income elasticities could be seriously biased

estimation of urban residential electricity demand in china using household survey data abstract this paper uses annual urban household survey data of sichuan province from 2007 to 2009 to estimate the income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand along with the effects of lifestyle related variables the empirical results show that in the urban area of sichuan province the residential electricity demand is price and income inelastic with price and income elasticities ranging from 0 35 to 0 50 and from 0 14 to 0 33 respectively such lifestyle related variables as demographic variables dwelling size and holdings of home appliances are also important determinants of residential electricity demand especially the latter these results are robust to a variety of sensitivity tests the research findings imply that urban residential electricity demand continues to increase with the growth of income the empirical results have important policy implications for the multistep electricity price which been adopted in some cities and is expected to be promoted nationwide through the installation of energy efficient home appliances

norwegian residential electricity demand a microeconomic assessment of the growth from 1976 to 1993 abstract the norwegian residential electricity consumption increased by an average of 3 annually during the period 1976 1993 political signals indicate that the growth in norwegian residential energy consumption should be reduced and that it may be necessary to increase energy taxes based on data for the sample of households from the annual consumer expenditure survey we study factors that are of importance explaining the growth in norwegian residential electricity demand during this period nearly half of the growth is due to an increase in the number of households while the rest reflects an increase in average consumption per household the increase in average consumption per household is due to an increasing number of households possessing electric household appliances such as dryers and dishwashers an increase in real disposable household income and in the floor space of dwellings

inequality in the distribution of expense allocated to the main energy fuels for mexican households 1968 2006 abstract energy is a decisive and essential factor to provide quality of life technological development related to its use and an economic development overview of a given country this essay presents the expense distribution allocated to the main fuel sources used at mexican households the essay herein was carried out for the 1968 2006 period the main purpose of this essay is to determine the expense allocation of the main energy fuels electricity gas firewood kerosene gasoline the methodology used in this essay is based on the lorenz curves and gini coefficient

industrial electricity demand for turkey a structural time series analysis abstract this research investigates the relationship between turkish industrial electricity consumption industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future turkish industrial electricity demand to achieve this an industrial electricity demand function for turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008 in addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added output elasticities this technique also uncovers the electricity underlying energy demand trend uedt for the turkish industrial sector and is as far as is known the first attempt to do this the results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a uedt all have an important role to play in driving turkish industrial electricity demand consequently they should all be incorporated when modelling turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated uedt should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the turkish electricity industry the output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0 15 and 0 16 respectively with an increasing but at a decreasing rate uedt and based on the estimated equation and different forecast assumptions it is predicted that turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 twh by 2020

estimation of elasticity price of electricity with incomplete information abstract the sharp increase in energy prices and growing concern for environmental issues among other things are behind the renewed interest in energy demand estimation however there is scarce academic literature that takes real situation of energy suppliers into account high quality but incomplete data in this paper we propose a useful and rather simple instrument for estimating electricity demand with the incomplete and or imperfect data currently available to suppliers in particular using real expenditure and consumption data on electricity we employ a model of random effects for panel data to estimate residential and industrial electricity demand in spain

arima forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in turkey abstract forecasting of energy demand in emerging markets is one of the most important policy tools used by the decision makers all over the world in turkey most of the early studies used include various forms of econometric modeling however since the estimated economic and demographic parameters usually deviate from the realizations time series forecasting appears to give better results in this study we used the autoregressive integrated moving average arima and seasonal arima sarima methods to estimate the future primary energy demand of turkey from 2005 to 2020 the arima forecasting of the total primary energy demand appears to be more reliable than the summation of the individual forecasts the results have shown that the average annual growth rates of individual energy sources and total primary energy will decrease in all cases except wood and animal plant remains which will have negative growth rates the decrease in the rate of energy demand may be interpreted that the energy intensity peak will be achieved in the coming decades another interpretation is that any decrease in energy demand will slow down the economic growth during the forecasted period rates of changes and reserves in the fossil fuels indicate that inter fuel substitution should be made leading to a best mix of the country s energy system based on our findings we proposed some policy recommendations

assessment of energy intake estimates of food supply v measurement of food consumption abstract national consumption indicators are frequently compiled using food supply estimates in the absence of reliable household or individual intake data the authors examine the relationship between these three levels of information and in particular the potential losses of energy in the food system comparing data from different countries and over time they demonstrate the unreliability of supply estimates as proxy indicators of consumption and question their current usage in statements about global hunger and the links between health and food intake

dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity this paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand for the main end use sectors of consumption industrial commercial and public services residential and road transportation per capita demand is expressed as an s shaped function of per capita income other variables intervene as well like energy prices temperatures and technological trends this model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates covering the whole world and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s further the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand by sector and in total the main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity the simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell shape as reported in the literature depending on initial conditions the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources various forms might emerge

residential demand for liquid petroleum gas abstract this is the first micro based study of residential demand for liquid petroleum gas lpg the data are from doe s residential energy consumption survey results are compared with elasticity estimates derived from the same data set for the three other main residential fuels lpg has a price elasticity for space and water heating combined of 1 3 income elasticity is 0 207

industrial and residential electricity demand dynamics in japan how did price and income elasticities evolve from 1989 to 2014 abstract this study estimates the price and income elasticities of industrial and residential electricity demand in japan with the annual data from 1989 to 2014 a time varying parameter tvp model with the kalman filter is applied to monitor the evolution of consumer behaviors in the post bubble period given the exogenous shock financial crisis in 2008 and the structural breaks electricity deregulation and fukushima daiichi crisis the tvp model can provide a robust estimation of elasticities and can detect the outliers and the structural breaks the results suggest that both industrial and residential consumers become less sensitive to price after the electricity deregulation and the financial crisis and more sensitive to price after the fukushima daiichi crisis especially the industrial sector is less sensitive to price after the retail deregulation by contrast the income elasticities of industrial and residential sector consumers are stable during the examined period results also indicate that a negative relationship exists between the price elasticity of electricity demand and the price level of electricity after the electric sector deregulation some insights on the further electric sector reform and the environmental taxation in japan are also provided