central bank transparency and cross border banking abstract we analyze the effect of central bank transparency on cross border bank activities based on a panel gravity model for cross border bank claims for 21 home and 47 destination countries from 1998 to 2010 we find strong empirical evidence that a rise in central bank transparency in the destination country on average increases cross border claims using interaction models we find that the positive effect of central bank transparency on cross border claims is only significant if the central bank is politically independent and operates in a stable economic environment central bank transparency and credibility are thus considered complements by banks investing abroad

foreign activities of u s banks since 1997 the roles of regulations and market conditions in crises and normal times abstract using a unique newly constructed dataset on u s banks foreign activities since 1997 this paper examines how bank market and regulatory conditions in the u s and host countries affect u s banks choices of which foreign markets to enter and how much claims and liabilities to take on there using a two stage structural estimation framework the determinants of foreign market entry exit cross border claims and foreign affiliate claims and liabilities choices are examined in 107 host countries around the world it is shown that 1 the health of the balance sheet is the primary driver of foreign market entry exit choices especially so during the subprime crisis while host market and regulatory conditions play important roles in the choice of claims liabilities volumes 2 banks choose their foreign activities during banking and market crises differently than they do in normal times and 3 in addition to bank size previous experience with managing a global lending network significantly increases the intensity of banks foreign involvement structural estimates of the costs of foreign market entry exit and host market regulatory stringency are also derived

do depositors punish banks for bad behavior market discipline deposit insurance and banking crises this paper empirically investigates two issues largely unexplored by the literature on market discipline we evaluate the interaction between market discipline and deposit insurance and the impact of banking crises on market discipline we focus on the experiences of argentina chile and mexico during the 1980s and 1990s we find that depositors discipline banks by withdrawing deposits and by requiring higher interest rates deposit insurance does not appear to diminish the extent of market discipline aggregate shocks affect deposits and interest rates during crises regardless of bank fundamentals and investors responsiveness to bank risk taking increases in the aftermath of crises

financial crises and cross border banking new evidence the surge in cross border banking prior to global financial crises took place not only in the interbank market but also in the retail market e g between banks and their private customers abroad we utilize confidential data to estimate for the first time the effects of banking currency and twin crises on the geography of cross border deposits and loans we show that each crisis type has its own specific effects that these effects themselves lead to sustained increases in cross border banking and that they are different for cross border loans and deposits respectively

the travels of a bank deposit in turbulent times the importance of deposit insurance design for cross border deposits we examine the impact of the existence on an explicit deposit insurance di scheme and its design features on bilateral cross border deposits cbd in a gravity model setting we find that both the absolute quality of a country s di and its relative quality vis a vis other countries di generally affect depositor behavior however during systemic banking crises cross border depositors primarily seek countries with the best di schemes similarly during the 2008 2009 great financial crisis the emergency actions taken by the governments which supply and maintain these safe havens have led to substantial relocations of cbd jel f34 g18

one money one market the effect of common currencies on trade currency unions their dramatic effect on international trade a gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade the panel data bilateral observations for five years during 1970 90 covering 186 countries includes 300 observations in which both countries use the same currency i find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility even after controlling for a host of features including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate regime these effects statistically significant imply that two countries sharing the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different currencies currency unions like the european emu may thus lead to a large increase in international trade with all that that entails andrew rose

the determinants of cross border equity flows abstract we explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross border equity flows between 14 countries 1989 1996 we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs in which both information and the transaction technology play a role distance proxies some information costs and other variables explicitly represent information transmission an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors and the efficiency of transactions the geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive once we control for the informational friction we broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings

cross border banking credit access and the financial crisis abstract we study the sensitivity of credit supply to bank financial conditions in 16 emerging european countries before and during the financial crisis we use survey data on 10 701 applicant and non applicant firms that enable us to disentangle effects driven by positive and negative shocks to the banking system from demand shocks that may vary across lenders we find strong evidence that firms access to credit was affected by changes in the financial conditions of their banks during the crisis firms were more credit constrained if they were dealing with banks that experienced a decline in equity and tier 1 capital as well as losses on financial assets we also find that access to credit reflects the balance sheet conditions of foreign parent banks the effect of positive and negative shocks to a bank is greater for riskier firms and firms with fewer tangible assets

foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging europe based on survey data from 193 banks in 20 countries we provide the first bank level analysis of the relationship between bank ownership bank funding and foreign currency fx lending across emerging europe our results contradict the widespread view that foreign banks have been driving fx lending to retail clients as a result of easier access to foreign wholesale funding our cross sectional analysis shows that foreign banks do lend more in fx to corporate clients but not to households moreover we find no evidence that wholesale funding had a strong causal effect on fx lending for either foreign or domestic banks panel estimations show that the foreign acquisition of a domestic bank does lead to faster growth in fx lending to households however this is driven by faster growth in household lending in general not by a shift towards fx lending

financial crises and the composition of cross border lending abstract we examine the composition and drivers of cross border bank lending between 1995 and 2012 distinguishing between syndicated and non syndicated loans we show that on balance sheet syndicated loan exposures which account for almost one third of total cross border loan exposures increased during the global financial crisis due to large drawdowns on credit lines extended before the crisis our empirical analysis of the drivers of cross border loan exposures in a large bilateral dataset leads to three main results first banks with lower levels of capital favor syndicated over other kinds of cross border loans second borrower country characteristics such as level of development economic size and capital account openness are less important in driving syndicated than non syndicated loan activity suggesting a diversification motive for syndication third information asymmetries between lender and borrower countries became more binding for both types of cross border lending activity during the recent crisis

uncertainty and cross border banking flows abstract while global uncertainty measured by the vix has proven to be a robust global push factor of international capital flows there has been no systematic study assessing the role of uncertainty in driving bilateral capital flows this paper examines the effects of higher country specific uncertainty on cross border banking flows using data from the bank for international settlements locational banking statistics the bilateral structure of this data allows disentangling supply factors from demand factors thereby helping identify the effect of higher uncertainty on cross border banking flows from other confounding factors the results of this analysis suggest that i uncertainty in a source country domestic economy is both a lender specific push and pull factor that robustly predicts a decrease in outflows cross border lending and inflows cross border borrowing ii the decline in cross border borrowing is larger than the decline in cross border lending that is the net cross border position of the banking sector increases iii despite a decline in cross border bank lending in the absolute sense the share of cross border bank lending in total bank lending increases suggesting a portfolio rebalancing iv this rebalancing occurs only when banks are lending to borrowers in advanced economies but not to those in emerging market economies

the power to tax analytical foundations of a fiscal constitution preface 1 taxation in constitutional perspective 2 natural government a model of leviathan 3 constraints on base and rate structure 4 the taxation of commodities 5 taxation through time income taxes capital taxes and public debt 6 money creation and taxation 7 the disposition of public revenues 8 the domain of politics 9 open economy federalism and taxing authority 10 toward authentic tax reform prospects and prescriptions epilogue notes selected bibliography index

interest rate pass through in the emu new evidence from nonlinear cointegration techniques for fully harmonized data this study puts the monetary transmission process in the eurozone between 2003 and 2011 under closer scrutiny for this purpose we investigate the interest rate pass through from money market to various loan rates for up to twelve countries of the european monetary union applying different cointegration techniques we first test for a long run relationship between loan rates and the euro overnight index average eonia based on these findings we allow for different nonlinear patterns for short run dynamics of loan rates our investigation contributes to the literature in mainly two ways on the one hand we use fully harmonized data stemming from the ecb s mfi interest rate statistics in addition we consider smooth transition models as an extension of conventional threshold models our results point to considerable differences in the size of the pass through with respect to either different loan rates or countries in the majority of cases the pass through is incomplete and the dynamics of loans adjustment are different for reductions and hikes of money market rates

are international deposits tax driven abstract this paper investigates the impact of tax policy on international depositing non bank international deposits are shown to be positively related to interest income taxes and to the presence of domestic bank interest reporting this suggests that international deposits are in part intended to facilitate tax evasion at present only part of international interest flow are covered by either non resident interest withholding taxes or international exchange of information this incomplete coverage may be a reason that these policies currently appear to have little impact on international depositing

the role of regulatory arbitrage in u s banks international lending flows bank level evidence this paper examines how cross border differences in the stringency of bank regulations affect u s banks international activities the analysis relies on a unique bank level dataset on the globally most active u s banks balance sheet as well as their cross border foreign affiliate lending and foreign market entry choices in 82 foreign countries in the 2003 2013 period results show that u s banks are significantly more likely to enter foreign markets with relatively laxer bank capital and disclosure requirements and exit foreign markets with relatively stricter deposit insurance schemes and more restrictions on activities banks substitute away from foreign affiliate lending via subsidiaries in the foreign country towards cross border lending originating from the u s in foreign countries with more powerful and independent bank regulators and limits on activities

europe 1992 issues and prospects for the financial markets financial markets vittorio grilli one potential effect of the integration of european financial markets concerns the geographical location of financial hot spots it is likely that liberalization will tend to promote countries with already large and well developed international financial markets attracting the residents of smaller countries these markets will become larger and more liquid and thus even more appealing it is very unlikely that other european countries could design policies apt to threaten london s supremacy as the main european financial centre while the article focuses on the market for bank deposits similar considerations apply to other financial markets it appears that a large part of cross country bank deposits are explained by country specific factors such as particular institutional arrangements in the areas of capital controls tax regulations and secrecy laws however the relative importance of these factors varies between inter bank deposits and non bank deposits taxation and banking secrecy matter for non bank deposits while the very size of the economy influences inter bank deposits finally imperfect competition and switching costs imply that more intense competition wilt be felt primarily in the market for large deposits small deposit contracts will probably be unaffected by liberalization at least in the short run

the geography of trade in goods and asset holdings gravity models have been widely used to describe bilateral trade in goods portes and rey portes r rey h 2005 the determinants of cross border equity flows journal of international economics 65 2 269 296 applied this framework to cross border equity flows and found that distance which proxies information asymmetries is a surprisingly very large barrier to cross border asset trade we adopt a different point of view and explore the complementarity between bilateral trade in goods and bilateral asset holdings in a simultaneous gravity equations framework providing different instruments for both endogenous variables we show that a 10 increase in bilateral trade raises bilateral asset holdings by 6 to 7 the reverse causality is also significant albeit smaller controlling for trade the impact of distance on asset holdings is drastically reduced keywords gravity models international finance international trade simultaneous equations

the great retrenchment international capital flows during the global financial crisis the current crisis saw an unprecedented collapse in international capital flows after years of rising financial globalization we identify the stylized facts and main drivers of this development the retrenchment in international capital flows is a highly heterogeneous phenomenon first across time being especially dramatic in the wake of the lehman brothers failure secondly across types of flows with banking flows being the hardest hit due to their sensitivity of risk perception and thirdly across regions with emerging economies experiencing a shorter lived retrenchment than developed economies our econometric analysis shows that the magnitude of the retrenchment in capital flows across countries is linked to the extent of international financial integration its specific nature with countries relying on bank flows being the hardest hit as well as domestic macroeconomic conditions and their connection to world trade flows gian maria milesi ferretti and cedric tille

is full banking integration desirable abstract we analyze the links between banking integration and economic development for a sample of oecd countries we measure banking integration considering indicators that merge not only openness but also connectedness with other banking systems we plug these indicators into income regressions also controlling for other relevant variables considered by the literature in contrast to previous initiatives this second stage explicitly takes into account the differing levels of economic development of the countries in our sample since the benefits of enhanced banking integration might not be generalizable to this end we implement quantile regression also considering the presence of endogenous regressors results show that bank connectedness is more important for economic development than bank openness but the combined effect i e banking integration overall is positive and significant the quantile regression models used in the second stage show that the effects are stronger for the poorest economies

market discipline by thrift depositors this paper tests for the presence of depositor discipline by examining the effect of depository institutions risk on the pricing and growth of uninsured deposits the study analyzes a large panel of thrifts that includes detailed information on interest rate schedules this information allows the authors to develop a time consistent risk profile for thrifts their empirical findings support the presence of market discipline riskier banks are found to pay higher interest rates but attract smaller amounts of uninsured deposits the authors also find that qualitative results are similar for fully insured deposits although statistical significance is substantially lower

a jump diffusion model for pricing and hedging with margined options an application to brent crude oil contracts abstract we develop a jump diffusion model for pricing and hedging with margined options on futures unlike a standard equity option margined options require no up front payment an attractive feature of margined options is that there is no early exercise premiums under general assumptions model parameter estimates and out of sample pricing errors are calculated using data on brent crude contracts using the same pricing technology we also hedge equity style options with margined options hedging coefficients are derived by matching an extended set of greeks we find that a target equity option can be effectively hedged using a portfolio of two margined options and the underlying as has been reported elsewhere a delta hedge is inappropriate when the underlying is a jump diffusion

the determinants of u s banks international activities abstract this paper develops a model and structural dynamic estimation of bank behavior to map the relationship between u s banks choices of foreign banking activities and bank and foreign market traits this estimation framework is applied to a unique bank level dataset compiled from regulatory sources covering u s banks foreign activities in 83 host markets over the 2003 2013 period bank traits are better able to explain the evolving patterns of foreign banking than host market characteristics after controlling for these traits the post financial crisis period shows a structural shift away from cross border claims towards foreign affiliate activities structural estimates of foreign market entry costs and regulatory attitudes towards risk are derived simulation exercises confirm the strong impact of banks and regulators risk stance on bank profits and portfolio composition

market discipline and deposit insurance cross country evidence presented in this paper suggests that explicit deposit insurance reduces required deposit interest rates while at the same time it lowers market discipline on bank risk taking internationally deposit insurance schemes vary widely in their coverage funding and management this reflects that there are widely differing views on how deposit insurance should optimally be structured to inform this debate we use a newly constructed data set of deposit insurance design features to examine how different design features affect deposit interest rates and market discipline

fdi versus exports evidence from german banks abstract we use a new bank level dataset to study the fdi versus exports decision for german banks we extend the literature on multinational firms in two directions first we simultaneously study fdi and the export of cross border financial services second we test recent theories on multinational firms which show the importance of firm heterogeneity helpman e melitz m j yeaple s r 2004 export versus fdi american economic review 94 1 300 316 our results show that fdi and cross border services are complements rather than substitutes heterogeneity of banks has a significant impact on the internationalization decision more profitable and larger banks are more likely to expand internationally than smaller banks they have more extensive foreign activities and they are more likely to engage in fdi in addition to cross border financial services

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed

deposit insurance and international bank liabilities abstract this paper examines the responsiveness of external bank liabilities to deposit insurance policies for a sample of developed countries external bank liabilities held by non banks are found to increase after the introduction of explicit deposit insurance deposit insurance schemes tend to exclude interbank deposits from coverage and the response of external interbank liabilities to deposit insurance appears to be varied neither external non bank nor external interbank liabilities are found to be materially affected by deposit insurance design this suggests that international competition in the area of deposit insurance design as possible under the eu deposit insurance directive of 1994 would be fruitless

what drives international financial flows politics institutions and other determinants abstract this paper uses a large panel of financial flow data from banks to assess how institutions affect international lending first employing a time varying composite institutional quality index in a fixed effects framework the paper shows that institutional improvements are followed by significant increases in international finance second cross sectional models also show a strong effect of initial levels of institutional quality on future bank lending third instrumental variable estimates further show that the historically predetermined component of institutional development is also a significant correlate of international bank inflows the results thus suggest that institutional underdeveloped can explain a significant part of lucas lucas robert e 1990 why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries american economic review papers and proceedings 80 2 92 96 1990 paradox of why doesn t capital flow from rich to poor countries the analysis also does a first step towards understanding which institutional features affect international banking