access to markets and rural poverty evidence from household consumption in china abstract this paper presents evidence on the effects of access to domestic and international markets on per capita consumption of households using data from rural china the econometric analysis uses alternative identification schemes to address the potential endogeneity of access to markets we use straight line distances to coastline and navigable river along with the topography of the intervening counties as sources of exogeneous variations we also use identification through heteroskedasticity which does not rely on standard exclusion restrictions the results from alternative identification schemes show that better access to both domestic and international markets has positive effects on per capita consumption the domestic market effect is significantly larger in magnitude and there is complementarity between the access to domestic and international markets

aggregate investment and consistent intertemporal technologies it is frequent practice to model an industry or economy as if it were a single agent solving a single optimization problem a model of firm behavior which has had extensive use as an aggregative model is the adjustment cost model of investment we assume there are a number of competitive firms in an industry that choose investment paths to maximize their present value the technologies of the firms exhibit capital stock adjustment costs for general concave technologies of the firms there is no aggregate concave technology that can represent the technological possibilities available to the industry we find conditions on the technologies of the firms that are necessary and sufficient for the existence of an aggregate technology that can consistently model the industry s behavior and discuss their empirical implications

dynamic adjustment in the us beef market with imports abstract this paper hypothesizes that while there are important qualitative differences in domestic beef and imported beef beef and cattle imports also represent attempts by the us beef processing and wholesale sector to adjust to short run changes in supply and demand dynamic production theory is applied to the problem to test for this adjustment process and presents a production theory approach to meat trade that has previously been included in demand functions the results of this analysis suggest that the method used provides a reasonable and appropriate representation of the import behavior of the us processing and wholesale beef sector

estimating griliches k shifts griliches k shift a crucial parameter in the welfare evaluation of technological change is shown to be equal to the radial rate of technological change plus a vector of commodity bias parameters obtained from the distance function the analysis permits decomposition of sectoral productivity growth into productivity growth by commodity the k shifts estimated for wheat corn soybeans and beef in u s agriculture indicate a decrease in the marginal cost of production of corn soybeans and wheat during the 1950 1993 years

econometric developments in agricultural and resource economics the first 100 years this article reviews the major contributions of agricultural and resource economists in the area of econometrics over the past 100 years early on a number of agricultural economists were in on the ground floor in terms of developing new econometric methods over time as the economics profession became more empirically oriented agricultural and resource economists increasingly assumed the role of early adopters of new econometric methods even so agricultural and resource economists continue to make useful modifications to econometric techniques in order to adapt the methods to the unique nature of the problems and applications that we study

the effect of supply management on dairy productivity tweeten 1992 argues that the relative rate of productivity growth is a key determinant of the international competitiveness of an industry as a result of the recently negotiated general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt and north american free trade nafta deals the competitiveness of the canadian dairy industry is for the first time of direct concern to producers in particular the effect of supply management or quotas on the amount of fluid milk each producer can sell is of primary importance barichello 1981 veeman 1982 and schmitz 1983 each document the static welfare costs of supply controls but little is known about supply management s impact on productivity growth and hence competitiveness several recent studies compare the competitiveness of canadian and u s dairy production barichello and stennes 1991 jeffrey 1992 and price waterhouse 1992 use measures of financial cost and partial productivity to arrive at conflicting conclusions jeffrey and barichello and stennes finding canadian costs significantly higher than those in the u s with price waterhouse concluding that little or no difference exists partial productivity measures such as milk yield per cow are misleading indicators of competitiveness due to differences in input prices input usage levels and herd sizes among other reasons financial cost comparisons are distorted by input subsidies and the capitalization of policy rents into fixed input prices furthermore these studies provide only a static snapshot of the state of competitiveness of the canadian dairy industry and do not capture the dynamism of genetic and technological change in dairy this study determines the effect of supply management on investment and total factor productivity growth in the alberta dairy industry treating quota licenses as quasi fixed inputs in a multi variate cost of adjustment investment framework an econometric model of investment demand estimates the effect of introducing quotas on the rate of adjusting all other

diversification and livelihood sustainability in a semi arid environment a case study from southern ethiopia abstract this paper examines the recently growing adoption of non pastoral livelihood strategies among the borana pastoralists in southern ethiopia a large portion of the current non pastoral participation is in petty and natural resource based activities pastoral and crop production functions are estimated using the cobb douglas model to analyse the economic rationale behind the growing pastoralist shift to cultivation and other non pastoral activities the low marginal return to labour in traditional pastoralism suggests the existence of surplus labour that can gainfully be transferred to non pastoral activities an examination of the pastoralist activity choices reveals that the younger households with literacy and more exposure to the exchange system display a more diversified income portfolio preference the findings underscore the importance of human capital investment and related support services for improving the pastoralist capacity to manage risk through welfare enhancing diversified income po

factor demand models with nonlinear short run fluctuations abstract this paper considers asymmetric costs of adjustment that propagate nonlinear shortrun fluctuations in stochastic factor demand systems the model endogenously generates asymmetric cyclical demand for capital and labour between peaks and troughs of the business cycle the empirical analysis of the model is based on quarterly time series data of the dutch manufacturing sector for the period 1971 i 1984 iv and annual time series data of the u k manufacturing sector for the period 1955 1986 i find important differences of adjustment speed of capital and labour inputs between expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle

a cross country comparison of rural income generating activities summary this paper uses a newly constructed cross country database composed of comparable income aggregates to examine the full range of income generating activities carried out by rural households the analysis paints a clear picture of multiple activities across rural space in countries on all four continents though less so in the included african countries for most countries the largest share of income stems from off farm activities and the largest share of households has diversified sources of income diversification not specialization is the norm nevertheless agricultural sources of income remain critically important for rural livelihoods in all countries

output input and productivity measurement in u s agriculture 1948 79 tornqvist theil indexes of outputs and inputs are constructed these data are used to construct indexes of productivity growth over the postwar period the productivity indexes can be derived from a flexible multioutput multifactor representation of the structure of production constrained to constant returns to scale total factor productivity grew at an average annual rate of 1 75 compared with 1 70 per year estimated by the u s department of agriculture the similar estimates of productivity growth overshadow some important differences in measurement of individual inputs the major effort in measuring agricultural productivity is undertaken by the u s department of agriculture usda an american agricultural economics association task force on measuring productivity has examined the sources and procedures used in constructing the official statistics see loomis and barton lambert barton and durost the task force recommended that the usda adopt a series of specific improvements for constructing certain inputs and use an indexing procedure that does not impose a priori restrictions on the structure of production 1 this paper presents revised indexes of outputs and inputs the data are used to construct indexes of productivity growth over the postwar period the productivity indexes can be derived from a flexible multioutput multifactor representation of the structure of production the translog transformation function constrained to constant returns to scale 2 the indexes of outputs and inputs have the same form and their ratio coincides with the estimate of productivity growth

nonfarm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural africa concepts dynamics and policy implications abstract asset activity and income diversification lie at the heart of livelihood strategies in rural africa this paper introduces a special issue on the topic income diversification and livelihoods in rural africa cause and consequence of change we concentrate on core conceptual issues that bedevil the literature on rural income diversification and the policy implications of the empirical evidence presented in this special issue

dynamic efficiency estimation the shadow cost approach is developed in the context of the dynamic duality model of intertemporal decision making to formulate theoretical and econometric models of dynamic efficiency the dynamic efficiency model is applied to a panel of 72 u s major investor owned electric utilities using fossil fuel fired steam electric power generation over the period 1986 1999 the major results show that most electric utilities underutilized fuel relative to the aggregated labor and the maintenance input and overutilized capital in production states adopting a deregulation plan improve the performance of utilities in terms of the technical efficiency of variable inputs

the economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty an asset based approach abstract longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty while a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty this paper develops an asset based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep rooted persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long term persistent structural poverty as well as relevant extensions of the popular foster greer thorbecke class of poverty measures the paper closes with reflections on how asset based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies

a soil quality index and its relationship to efficiency and productivity growth measures two decompositions this article reconciles two notions of soil quality indexes with the economic concepts of technical efficiency and productivity growth an example uses data from the u s department of agriculture s experimental fields in maryland and data envelopment analysis techniques to estimate a soil quality index consistent with the notion of technical efficiency common regression techniques shed additional light on the role of individual soil quality properties in a very restricted linear approximation of the estimated soil quality index

an examination of the equilibrium specification and structure of production for canadian telecommunications multiple output models of canadian telecommunications production are estimated under different production equilibria a specification test is conducted between the short and long run equilibrium models and the long run equilibrium is rejected in order to capture the nature of the disequilibrium a dynamic cost of adjustment model is estimated for bell canada there are significant adjustment costs and it is estimated that for 1 00 of marginal capital costs the carrier must incur an additional cost of 0 30 to install the new capital into the production process

unemployment insurance and male unemployment duration in canada a model of unemployment duration is estimated with weekly micro data on canadian men entitlement provisions in the unemployment insurance program and demand conditions are found to have a significant effect on the probability of leaving unemployment the probability of a worker leaving unemployment declines with the duration of unemployment holding unemployment insurance entitlement constant when entitlement is allowed to vary the probability of leaving first falls and then generally rises with unemployment duration these results are robust with respect to allowing for person specific unobserved heterogeneity and alternative specifications of duration dependence

determination of employment with wage and price speculation the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether aggregate fluctuations in employment may be explained within a market clearing framework as intertemporal substitution in labor supply and demand an intertemporal substitution model for the firm is derived this model is estimated with a lucas rapping type supply equation empirical results with finnish data lend support to the intertemporal substitution model particularly concerning the demand function specification on the other hand the results for the supply equation are somewhat mixed being rather sensitive to the dynamic specification

bayesian semiparametric estimation of discrete duration models an application of the dirichlet process prior this paper proposes a bayesian estimator for a discrete time duration model which incorporates a non parametric specification of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution through the use of a dirichlet process prior this estimator offers distinct advantages over the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of this model first it allows for exact finite sample inference second it is easily estimated and mixed with flexible specifications of the baseline hazard an application of the model to employment duration data from the canadian province of new brunswick is provided copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

the general equilibrium costs and impacts of oil price shocks in newfoundland and labrador abstract the 2014 2015 dramatic drop in world oil prices had devastating impacts on a global scale we analyse economic costs and impacts of a negative oil price shock following the 2014 2015 decrease in oil prices on the provincial economy of newfoundland and labrador canada we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to estimate a drop in oil prices by inputting the estimated effect as a direct impact to royalties which are the land input in the oil and gas sector of the provincial economy we provide sensitivity to account for the duration and magnitude of the shock as well as the timing of recovery our results suggest that a shock in the price of oil will have its most significant impact on gdp in the initial years over the first five years the reduction in gdp due to this shock would be roughly 2 1 of gdp in our most realistic shock scenario but could be much higher in other scenarios considered a sharp drop in gdp over the first five years will be mitigated somewhat in the long run as the growth in oil prices rises however negative long run impacts to gdp persist due to the oil price shock in 2014 2015 and will worsen if there is a prolonged shock

the intertemporal dimension of neoclassical production theory abstract the aim of this survey paper is to provide a guide to the literature on optimal dynamic factor demands to the non specialist reader interested in applied work we start with the distinction between variable and quasi fixed factors of production and use these to characterize the firm s temporary equilibrium we then review the optimal intertemporal behaviour of the firm using the notion of adjustment costs as a means to solve the firm s optimization problem this process gives rise to a system of interrelated dynamic factor demands in a flexible accelerator format theoretical difficulties and empirical limitations of this model are discussed this fact leads us to review the theory of intertemporal duality we next analyze the issue of expectations in this class of dynamic models a section reviewing the empirical work on dynamic factor demands follows after which we offer some concluding remarks

household income dynamics a four country story in this article we analyse the dynamics of household per capita incomes using longitudinal data from indonesia south africa spain and venezuela we find that in all four countries reported initial income and job changes of the head are consistently the most important variables in accounting for income changes overall and for initially poor households we also find that changes in income are more important than changes in household size and that changes in labour earnings are more important than changes in other sources of household income

productivity growth in u s agriculture under dynamic adjustment a dynamic measure of productivity growth adjusted for deviations from the long run equilibrium is established within an adjustment cost framework an empirical application to u s agriculture is presented which permits identifying the dynamic linkages between technical change and productivity growth in u s agriculture total factor productivity as dynamically measured grew at 1 50 per annum the combined effect of scale quality adjusted input growth and long run disequilibrium input use contributes only 3 44 of the growth while technical change dominates the growth of total factor productivity

dynamic model of fresh fruit promotion a household production approach many studies consider the dynamic effects of commodity promotion on demand but few derive the theoretical basis for these effects in a model of optimal consumer behavior this study develops a dynamic household production model of u s fresh fruit consumption which it uses to evaluate the effectiveness of advertising and promotion expenditures by the washington apple commission estimates from a dynamic dual generalized leontief system show direct advertising to be marginally more effective than retail promotion in increasing apple sales but advertising has positive spillover effects to sales of other fruits whereas promotion reduces sales of competing products

expectations and factor demand this paper develops and estimates a model of interrelated factor demand with rational expectations in the presence of internal adjustment costs invariant technological parameters are distinguished from the firm s adjustment parameters which change when the exogenous processes faced by the firm change the capital demand equation is derived by solving the euler equations which stem from minimization of the present value of costs future exogenous variables are supplied from solutions of arima equations the model is tested on postwar quarterly data for u s manufacturing a regime change in the process for energy prices is simulated as is a temporary suspension of the investment tax credit

real flexibility and financial structure an empirical analysis i examine the empirical relation between real flexibility and financial structure i test whether real flexibility increases debt capacity by lowering default risk and making assets more marketable or decreases debt capacity by facilitating risk shifting and asset substitution i measure real flexibility as the sensitivity of marginal production and investment decisions to variations in the economic environment i find that financial leverage is negatively related to production flexibility but positively related to investment flexibility this split in results suggests that although asset substitution facilitated by investment flexibility can be prevented contractually risk shifting facilitated by production flexibility is intractable copyright 2003 oxford university press

combining household income and asset data to identify livelihood strategies and their dynamics abstractcurrent approaches to identifying and describing rural livelihood strategies and household movements between strategies over time in developing countries are imprecise here we i present a new statistical quantitative approach combining income and asset data to identify household activity choice variables characterise livelihood strategy clusters and analyse movements between strategies and ii apply the approach using an environmentally augmented three wave household n 427 level panel dataset from nepal combining income and asset data provides a better understanding of livelihood strategies and household movements between strategies over time than using only income or asset data most households changed livelihood strategy at least once over the two three year periods a common pathway out of poverty included an intermediate step during which households accumulate assets through farming petty trading and migratory work

dynamic factor demand systems and the adjustment speed towards equilibrium most models of factor demand can be grouped into two categories the first is static models which consistently account for substitution among several factors without imposing a priori restrictions on the production structure such models utilize flexible functional forms to represent the underlying technology however they impose strict restrictions on the dynamic behaviour of the technology in that either full or partial static equilibrium is assumed studies in this group providing a rationale for modelling some input factors as fixed in the short run include brown and christensen 1980 and kulatilaka 1985 a partly dynamic approach was suggested by pindyck and rotemberg 1983 who explicitly model the adjustment costs of some factors however the underlying production technology is still regarded as static the second category consists of dynamic models that incorporate cost of capital stock adjustments such models often apply a single factor and typically impose ad hoc assumptions in both categories the researcher selects the inputs which are not regarded as completely variable mostly on the basis of a priori assumptions in this paper we will focus on implications of a dynamic modelling of factor demand systems it is clear that a firm will adjust to price changes only when it is profitable to do so accordingly the cost of adjustment may serve as a rationale for why different factors may adjust towards equilibrium at different speeds hence when we are able to model the adjustment speed of the different factors we are also able to parametrically test for the

primal and dual dynamic luenberger productivity indicators abstract this paper develops primal and dual versions of the dynamic luenberger productivity growth measures that are based on the dynamic directional distance function and intertemporal cost minimization respectively the empirical application focuses on panel data of dutch dairy farms over the period 1995 2005 primal dynamic luenberger productivity growth averages 1 5 percent annually in the period under investigation with technical change being the main driver of annual change dual dynamic luenberger productivity growth is 0 1 percent in the same period improvements in technical inefficiency and technical change are partly counteracted by deteriorations of allocative inefficiency with large dairy farms presenting a slightly higher productivity growth than small dairy farms

the poor stay poor household asset poverty traps in rural semi arid india summary although identifying household level poverty dynamics would have important implications for poverty reduction policies empirical evidence is still scant this paper employs a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of estimation methods in the existing literature and applies it to a uniquely long panel data set to examine poverty dynamics in three villages in rural semi arid india structural immobility is pervasive the currently poor are likely to remain poor suggesting a structural poverty trap while all households face static asset holdings higher castes larger landholders and more educated households are significantly less likely to be poor

adjustment costs uncertainty and the behavior of the firm this paper examines the effects of demand and cost uncertainty on a firm s investment output and pricing decisions but unlike most earlier studies in which demand and cost are simply not known at the time an output or pricing decision is made here i consider uncertainties over future demand and costs it will be seen that the effects of such uncertainties depend critically on the characteristics of the firm s adjustment costs i treat demand uncertainty in a dynamic context by letting the market demand function shift randomly but continuously through time according to a stochastic process this means that today s demand is known exactly but future demand may be larger or smaller and has a variance that increases with the time horizon likewise uncertainty over factor costs is characterized by treating those variables as stochastic processes i combine this characterization of uncertainty with a dynamic model of the firm in which some factor inputs can be adjusted freely in response to stochastic demand changes but other factors are quasi fixed in that adjustment costs are incurred when they are changed in this model the firm s price and output are random processes but we can examine the firm s behavior in expected value terms of interest is whether the presence of uncertainty should cause competitive or monopolistic firms to invest and produce more or less than they would otherwise how the effects of uncertainty are influenced by the presence of risk aversion and how the use of inventories can alter the impact of uncertainty on capacity and sales of course these questions have been addressed by others in the past among the earliest studies of demand uncertainty are those of edwin mills 1959 1962 and samuel karlin and charles carr 1962 mills examined a single period monopolistic firm that sets both output and price and showed that additive demand uncertainty i e the demand function is of the form q q p u where u is a random variable leads to a lower price if marginal cost is constant so that the firm reduces the expected loss from discarding unsold production karlin and carr confirmed for both the static case and the multiperiod case with inventory carryover that additive uncertainty tends to reduce the price and increase the output of a risk neutral firm while multiplicative uncertainty does the opposite other papers have been concerned with the way in which the error term enters the demand function additively multiplicatively or nonlinearly the implications of choosing price ex ante instead of output the implications of risk aversion and the use of inventories for example agnar sandmo 1971 and david baron 1970 showed that a risk averse competitive firm will produce less when the price is a random variable or subject to an additive error term but a riskneutral firm will not alter its production hayne leland 1972 extended these results to a monopolistic firm whose demand can depend in a general way on a random error term for example q q p u and showed that uncertainty reduces the production of a

productivity growth and environmental regulation in mexican and u s food manufacturing many argued during the nafta debate that trade liberalization would favor mexican over u s food processors especially because of lax environmental laws south of the border we find through an examination of profit functions that productivity growth in mexico has outstripped that in the united states suggesting free trade indeed will benefit mexican suppliers u s pollution regulations have had no impact on the profitability or productivity of u s food manufacturing in contrast mexico s swiftly rising environmental standards have enhanced food processors productivity growth corroborating the porter hypothesis pollution law therefore has favored mexican over u s food processing but for reasons few had anticipated

employment spells and unemployment insurance eligibility requirements in this paper we examine whether the requirements that workers must satisfy to qualify for unemployment insurance ui benefits in any succeeding period of joblessness affect the duration of employment spells this behavioral consequence of a ui system has been neglected in empirical research which has instead focused on the effects of ui parameters on the actions of the unemployed the effect is identified by a unique change in the eligibility requirements of the canadian ui system in 1990 which increased the weeks of employment required to establish ui eligibility we provide a variety of estimates of this behavioral effect in our preferred set of results we find a significant increase in the employment hazard in the week that an individual satisfies the eligibility requirement in many regions of the country in the spirit of feldstein s 1976 study of temporary layoffs the results provide new evidence of the impact of ui system parameters on the actions of employers and workers

short and long term equilibria relationships between first and third generation dynamic factor demand models abstract first generation dynamic models of input demands are theoretically inferior to third generation models yet their simplicity makes them attractive for estimation purposes moreover first generation models can be shown to be generically related to third generation models and under certain assumptions input demand expressions in a third generation model collapse to those of the first generation seemingly offering a short cut for estimation however empirical comparisons suggest that first generation specifications do not afford a reasonable approximation to input functions embedded in more complex third generation models furthermore the reduced form coefficients do not permit identification of third generation model structures

how does the benefit effect vary as unemployment spells lengthen summary this paper investigates how the effect of income while unemployed on the probability of an individual leaving unemployment varies with the length of time that the individual has been unemployed we examine this question in the context of a variety of alternative econometric models we extend the proportional hazards model with unrestricted baseline hazard to one in which there are unrestricted effects of a subset of the explanatory variables and also consider models that can be estimated as series of binary response models the proportional hazard restrictions are rejected for the sample of british unemployed men analysed and in the binary sequence framework logit and probit models based on symmetric distributions dominate in likelihood terms the extreme value form model implied by extension of the proportional hazards formulation logit models with a flexible form for the duration dependence which also incorporate unobserved heterogeneity in a flexible way are estimated the results for all formulations indicate a rapidly declining effect of unemployment income as a spell lengthens with no significant effect for the long term unemployed the preferred specifications which allow for omitted heterogeneity indicate no significant effect after about 5 months and this result is robust to the inclusion or exclusion of previous labour market experience variables and to the choice of mixing distribution

dynamic adjustment in the u s dairy industry a dual model is used to examine the dynamic structure of the u s dairy industry properties implied by the theory of the competitive firm and independent adjustment of two quasi fixed inputs labor and herd size are tested and not rejected instantaneous adjustment however is soundly rejected for each quasi fixed input input adjustment to optimal levels is estimated to take about two years for labor and ten for cows quality adjustments of the labor and cow series do not fully embody the technological change that has occurred in this industry over the study period

cost specification and firm behaviour in a hotelling model of resource extraction in applied resource economics much attention has been focused on the ability of the hotelling model to explain observed firm behavior in this paper a preliminary specification search is performed to determine the appropriate cost function parameterization for the firms in the sample before proceeding to the estimation of the euler equation once a cost function specification is chosen the corresponding euler equation is estimated via the generalization method of moments gmm which allows for better estimates of the euler equations than in previous studies even with the preliminary specification search and the use of gmm estimation the behavior of the panel of fourteen canadian copper mining firms in the data set examined does not seem to be consistent with the basic hotelling model used

a dynamic adjustment model for u s agriculture 1948 79 abstract a multioutput model is developed within the adjustment cost framework to analyze the structure of dynamic adjustments in u s agriculture during the post war period an important feature of this model is that the econometric model is consistent with dynamic economic theory fluctuations in capital stocks variable inputs and outputs are explained by changing opportunity costs empirical results indicated that durable equipment farm produced durables and family labor exhibited significant rigidity in adjustment as a response to exogenous shocks surprisingly the hypothesis that real estate was a variable input could not be rejected the univariate flexible accelerator hypothesis which is widely maintained in most agricultural adjustment studies is inconsistent with the data

interrelated factor demands for manufacturing a dynamic translog cost function approach abstract in this paper we report the results of estimating a joint model for labour capital and energy using the transcendental logarithmic cost function of christensen jorgenson and lau 1973 this allows us to determine both the own price and cross elasticities of substitution between labour capital and energy we combine a model of factor shares with a dynamic adjustment process for each factor we also impose on the cross equation restrictions necessary to provide additivity homogeneity and symmetry since the covariance matrix in systems of share relationships is singular we follow the suggestions of anderson and blundell 1982 and employ a mullivariate error corrrection model the results suggest that additivity symmetry and homogeneity restrictions do hold and that there are short run increasing returns to scale

the multivariate flexible accelerator model its empirical restrictions and an application to u s manufacturing this paper derives an exhaustive set of restrictions implied by the multistock flexible accelerator specification of the adjustment cost model for the firm the flexible accelerator specification of the demand for capital and labor is estimated using u s manufacturing annual data for the 1947 1976 period the consistency of the data with the model is examined by testing the validity of the derived restrictions finally the conditions which permit aggregation over firms are determined and tested empirically the flexible accelerator specification has been popular in the empirical literature on interrelated investment and employment decisions see nadiri and rosen 38 coen and hickman 10 and schramm 40 more recent examples include sargent 39 berndt fuss and wavermann 4 berndt and morrison 6 and meese 34 under suitable assumptions the specification may be rationalized by the adjustment cost model of the firm eisner and strotz 13 lucas 30 mortensen 35 extends the work of lucas and derives some empirically testable restrictions of the accelerator specification that are implied by the adjustment cost framework the broad objective of this paper is to provide a more rigorous and comprehensive test of the adjustment cost model than is presently found in the literature this objective is achieved in three stages first we offer an alternative derivation of the mortensen restrictions and more importantly we prove theorem 1 that his restrictions are exhaustive i e we establish an integrability result for the flexible accelerator adjustment cost model second the flexible accelerator specification of the demand for capital and labor is estimated using total u s manufacturing annual data for the 1947 76 period it is assumed that firms minimize expected production costs subject to a technology which implies that capital and labor stocks are costly to adjust while a third factor materials is freely adjustable the consistency of the data with the adjustmentcost framework is examined by testing for the validity of the derived restrictions further we test the validity of some separability restrictions on the adjustmentcost technology that to varying degrees are imposed a priori in all of the cited empirical studies finally we provide a complete characterization of the individual firm technologies which justify the common assumption of the existence of a representative firm this problem of aggregation over firms which has been

output response to prices and public investment in agriculture indonesian food crops abstract this paper analyzes dynamic food crop supply response in indonesia the effects of technology prices and investments on output growth for rice corn soybean and cassava are examined the analysis generates crop wise area yield and input demand parameters suitable for the evaluation of price and investment policies and shows the large impact of public investment in agricultural research extension and irrigation on long run output growth in indonesia elimination of the fertilizer subsidy and reinvestment of the resulting fiscal savings in research extension and irrigation would produce large benefits

environmental income and rural livelihoods a global comparative analysis this paper presents results from a comparative analysis of environmental income from approximately 8000 households in 24 developing countries collected by research partners in cifor s poverty environment network pen environmental income accounts for 28 of total household income 77 of which comes from natural forests environmental income shares are higher for low income households but differences across income quintiles are less pronounced than previously thought the poor rely more heavily on subsistence products such as wood fuels and wild foods and on products harvested from natural areas other than forests in absolute terms environmental income is approximately five times higher in the highest income quintile compared to the two lowest quintiles

returns to scale in the long run the dynamic theory of cost the concept of scale economies is muddled by the problem specific nature of determining the length of run the distinction between the short and long run becomes a prime consideration in determining the appropriate time scale of economic decision making strategies these strategies center on the choice of factors of production that are assumed to be fixed when factor allocation decisions are to be made

unemployment insurance and job duration in canada we use data from the canadian 2 year longitudinal labour market activity survey of 1986 87 to estimate the effect of the unemployment insurance ui system on job duration particular attention is focused on the entrance requirements of the ui system which relate eligibility for ui benefits to an individual s recent employment history the article makes operational the ui entrance requirement provisions which take into account variations in the regional unemployment rate controlling for many personal and job characteristics we find evidence that a significant number of jobs terminate when they have reached the duration that would permit a ui claim

measuring productivity growth under factor non substitution an application to us steam electric power generation utilities a theoretical framework is developed for decomposing partial factor productivity and measuring technical inefficiency when the underlying technology is characterized by factor non substitution with farrell s 1957 radial index of technical inefficiency being inappropriate in this case russell non radial indices are adapted to measure technical inefficiency in a leontief type model a system of factor demand equations with a regime specific technical inefficiency term is proposed and estimated allowing for dependence across inputs using a copula approach then the paper presents a complete decomposition of partial factor productivity changes using a dataset of us steam power electric generation utilities

household income strategies and natural disasters dynamic livelihoods in rural nicaragua this paper assesses the impact of hurricane mitch on livelihood strategies of rural households in nicaragua through destruction or distress sales of productive assets a hurricane or another natural hazard could induce people with relatively remunerative livelihoods to choose more defensive strategies which allow them to survive but at a permanently lower welfare level than before using panel data from before and after hurricane mitch we find that livelihood strategies can be grouped into three welfare categories annual farming and farm employment generate low incomes whereas nonfarm wage employment and livestock farming result in relatively high incomes perennial farming nonfarm self employment and annual cropping with nonfarm employment take an intermediate position high welfare strategies were associated with high levels of capital and the number of people involved was very similar between different years suggesting that households following low welfare strategies were trapped in poverty however many households moved actively between strategies of different welfare levels this indicates that there was no absolute poverty threshold but also that being able to initiate a relatively profitable livelihood strategy was no guarantee that this strategy could be maintained there is no evidence that hurricane mitch affected livelihood strategy transitions livelihood mobility was similar for households inside and outside mitch affected areas

the effect of supply management on herd size in alberta dairy a supply management program limits the aggregate supply of a commodity often through the use of marketable quota licenses the static aggregate welfare effects of supply controls are well known but the farm level dynamic effects on dairy investment are not a theoretical cost of adjustment model is used to show that supply management reduces the rate of quasi fixed input adjustment at the farm level in fact when a quasi fixed input is complementary to quota licenses investment or disinvestment can be impaired to such an extent that the input moves away from the long run equilibrium as a result overinvestment in this input can significantly reduce productivity growth

dynamic factor demands and the effects of energy price shocks a dynamic model is used to understand how sharp changes in energy prices affect investment behavior employment and energy use the authors discuss the theory behind their model selection model specifications estimation methods and data list parameter estimates and elasticities for the selected model and describe the simulations they conclude that 1 the data strongly reject the hypothesis of constant returns to scale within their specification of aggregate production 2 the data indicate adjustment costs on labor are small and 3 their results help reconcile some of the conflicting estimates of energy demand elasticities appearing in recent literature 23 references 3 figures 3 tables

rural livelihoods and poverty reduction strategies in four african countries this paper compares and contrasts rural livelihoods in uganda kenya tanzania and malawi with a view to informing rural poverty reduction policies within poverty reduction strategy plans prsps low household incomes in rural areas of all countries are associated with low land and livestock holdings high reliance on food crop agriculture and low monetisation of the rural economy these adverse factors are in some instances made more difficult by land sub division at inheritance declining civil security in rural areas deteriorating access to proper agronomic advice and inputs and predatory taxation by decentralised district councils better off households are distinguished by virtuous spirals of accumulation typically involving diverse livestock ownership engagement in non farm self employment and diversity of on farm and non farm income sources lessons for prsps centre on the creation of a facilitating rather than blocking public sector environment for the multiplication of non farm enterprises seeking creative solutions to the spread of technical advice to farmers and examining critically the necessity for and impact of tax revenue collection by district councils on rural incomes and enterprise

policies for sustainable development in the hillside areas of honduras a quantitative livelihoods approach in this article we use data for 376 households 1 066 parcels and 2 143 plots located in 95 villages in the hillside areas in honduras to generate information needed by decision makers to assess the needs and opportunities for public investments and design policies that stimulate natural resource conservation we develop a quantitative livelihood approach using factor and cluster analysis to group households based on the use of their main assets this resulted in seven household categories that pursue similar livelihood strategies we use a multinomial logit model to show that livelihood strategies are determined by comparative advantages as reflected by a combination of biophysical and socioeconomic variables while 92 of the rural hillsides population in honduras lives on us 1 00 capita day or less households that follow a livelihood strategy based on basic grain farming are the poorest because they often live in isolated areas with relatively poor agro ecological and socioeconomic conditions opportunities for off farm work tend to be limited in these areas and household strategies that combine on farm work with off farm work earn higher incomes per capita incomes can be increased by improving road infrastructure widening access to land policies that reduce household size and dependency ratios and adoption of sustainable land management technologies that restore soil fertility we used probit models to show that the latter can be promoted by agricultural extension programs and land redistribution investments in physical assets should be directed toward households that pursue livelihood strategies based on off farm employment or coffee production while agricultural training programs are best focused on livestock producers

dynamic factor demands and market structure under rational expectations some estimates for the italian manufacturing system this paper deals with a dynamic model of the behaviour of firms under rational expectations the adjustment cost framework is followed to describe production technologies the objective of firms is to maximize the stream of future profits under rational expectation first order conditions for the optimum are derived with respect to input demands and one output supply the output market structure is modelled in order to test price taking behaviour the adjustment costs of quasi fixed inputs are internal and interrelated the model is estimated for the italian manufacturing system with encouraging results

quantifying rural livelihood strategies in developing countries using an activity choice approach this article uses a quantitative activity choice approach based on identification of activity variables and application of latent class cluster analysis to identify five major rural livelihood strategies pursued by households n 576 in bolivia nepal and mozambique income sources and welfare outcomes are compared across strategies and household differences in asset holdings are analyzed using multinomial logit regression findings reveal that income diversification is the norm that a higher degree of specialization does not characterize more remunerative livelihood strategies that nonfarm income significantly contributes to higher income earnings that environmental reliance does not vary across strategies and that small scale farmers are the largest and poorest livelihood group some livelihood strategies are superior to all other strategies in terms of income earned access to more remunerative livelihood strategies is determined by land ownership education and ethnic affiliation finally the article also highlights that additional work is required to determine the most suitable methods for livelihood strategy identification

technical efficiency and u s manufacturing productivity growth this paper establishes that new inputs increase technical efficiency levels for u s manufacturing over the period 1950 1998 intermediate inputs exhibited higher rates of efficiency growth than labor and capital efficiency adjusted productivity growth annually averaged 0 4 percentage points above measured growth the gap between efficiency adjusted and measured productivity growth arises from aggregating inputs using observed and not efficiency adjusted cost share weights in the calculation of measured growth specifically the decline in efficiency adjusted material cost shares compared to the measured shares coupled with the comparatively high material input growth rate was the main source of the productivity gap

asymmetric adjustment of dynamic factors at the firm level presents a study which addressed the deficiencies of previous studies the specification and estimation in the modeling of asymmetry and zero gross investment in the agricultural industry reference to previous studies on asymmetry information on the standard dual model results of the study

dynamic adjustment in us agriculture under climate change we construct a stochastic dynamic dual model to investigate the structural adjustment of two aggregate output and three aggregate input categories in us agriculture under stochastic climatic change more than a century of national annual data 1910 2011 is used in the empirical analysis no constraints on asset fixity are imposed results indicate that with rational expectations both output categories as well as all input categories exhibit quasi fixity in response to market change and stochastic climate change crops adjust more than twice as fast as livestock 49 versus 20 of the way toward their long run equilibrium in one year fertilizer adjusts most rapidly toward equilibrium levels 88 in one year and capital adjusts most slowly 5 in one year labor oscillates rather than converging smoothly toward equilibrium its distance from equilibrium is the same as if it adjusted 59 of the way toward its optimal level in one year failing to anticipate climate change dramatically slows the estimated rate of adjustment for two netputs and modestly speeds the rate for two others thus likely increasing overall adjustment costs failing to account for uncertainty in anticipated climate change has little impact on adjustment rates

dynamic factor demands under rational expectations we model the industrial demands for structures equipment and blue and white collar labor in a manner consistent with rational expectations and stochastic dynamic optimization in the presence of adjustment costs but allowing generality of functional form we represent the technology by a translog input requirement function that specifies the amount of blue collar labor needed to produce an output level given quantities of three quasi fixed factors nonproduction workers equipment and structures a complete description of the production structure is obtained by simultaneously estimating the input requirement function and three stochastic euler equations we find adjustment costs are small in total but large on the margin and differ considerably across factors

consistent tariffs with dynamic supply response abstract this paper models a large importer of a competitively produced good for which there are nonlinear adjustment costs in production if producers have rational expectations and the importer is unable to make a credible commitment regarding future tariffs market power may be disadvantageous this is more likely to occur when the difference between short and long run elasticities of supply are large this result depends on the particular subgame perfect equilibrium that is chosen if producers were capable of strategic behavior other equilibria which rely on trigger strategies would be reasonable and market power could no longer be disadvantageous

livelihood strategies and dynamics in rural cambodia summary this paper addresses one of the major challenges in rural livelihood analysis to quantitatively examine the dynamics of household livelihood strategies it investigates the interactions between livelihood assets activities and outcomes and captures the dynamics of long term changes and their underlying factors the study aims to identify the classification of rural livelihood strategies their transitions and factors influencing these processes and changes we employ the dynamic livelihood strategy framework and use panel data for 2008 and 2012 covering 464 households in 15 villages in cambodia for latent class cluster analysis and regression estimation in this paper livelihood strategies are quantified based on allocation of available resources which overcomes the limitations of income based analysis our study identifies five household livelihood strategies pursued in the study areas and the results show that over 70 of households change livelihood strategies over time in response to evolving pressures incentives and opportunities the study identifies covariates that shape the choices of livelihood strategies and affects the households access to more remunerative strategies such as education ownership of physical assets and access to infrastructure these findings suggest policy implications for improving the range of livelihood choices available to lower income groups to move out of poverty trap

estimating investment rigidity within a threshold regression framework the case of u s hog production sector this article addresses the issues of investment disinvestment asymmetry and a possible existence of a sluggish regime in the demand for a quasi fixed input in the u s hog production sector adopting a new threshold estimation procedure quarterly data from 1970 through 2002 are used to estimate a regimedependent investment demand equation for a quasi fixed input taking sows as a proxy the results support the existence of three regimes over alternative specifications precluding the sluggish regime confirming the existence of asset fixity in hog production the results also highlight the importance of accounting for investment rigidity when estimating hog supply and variable input demands the importance of the u s swine industry is far reaching and can be highlighted by its economic contribution to different sectors along the supply chain involving hog producers pork processors and consumers according to the national pork producers council nppc 2002 the industry supported an estimated 800 000 domestic jobs in 2002 and generated more than 72 billion in total domestic economic activities furthermore the united stated is a leading pork exporter with its exports valued at 1 5 billion in 2002 of the 72 billion worth of domestic economic activities receipts from hog sales account for more than 11 billion per year the hog sector also contributes an additional 27 billion from the utilization of corn soybean and other inputs nppc the structure of the hog production sector has changed dramatically during the past decade with large hog operations becoming increasingly dominant between 1994 and 2004 the proportion of hog operations with more than 2 000 hogs has doubled from 38 to 79 of all hogs

combining income and assets measures to include the transitory nature of poverty in assessments of forest dependence evidence from the democratic republic of congo abstract a considerable amount of research on poverty environment relations in developing countries under the cifor pen initiative focuses on household income generation from forests using total annual income as a measure of poverty however income alone produces a static picture in a snapshot of time while poverty is a dynamic state that can be a transitory phenomenon using income only also fails to consider that households can liquidate asset to overcome income shocks here we show that using asset quintiles measured by value of assets produce a distinctly different pattern than the commonly observed negative relation between income and forest dependence we then present an approach enabling categorization of households as chronic or transient poor transient rich and rich providing a more nuanced picture than that provided by cifor pen studies so far the validity of groupings is tested by comparing household characteristics and exposure to shocks we then show that the chronic poor are most reliant on forest income while the transient poor consume a higher share of harvested forest products the transient rich have higher agricultural productivity and absolute forest income rich households relies more on business based on the results we suggest recommendations for improving future studies on poverty environment relations

a bayesian semiparametric competing risk model with unobserved heterogeneity this paper generalizes existing econometric models for censored competing risks by introducing a new flexible specification based on a piecewise linear baseline hazard time varying regressors and unobserved individual heterogeneity distributed as an infinite mixture of generalized inverse gaussian gig densities nesting the gamma kernel as a special case a common correlated latent time effect induces dependence among risks our model is based on underlying latent exit decisions in continuous time while only a time interval containing the exit time is observed as is common in economic data we do not make the simplifying assumption of discretizing exit decisions our competing risk model setup allows for latent exit times of different risk types to be realized within the same time period in this setting we derive a tractable likelihood based on scaled gig laplace transforms and their higher order derivatives we apply our approach to analyzing the determinants of unemployment duration with exits to jobs in the same industry or a different industry among unemployment insurance recipients on nationally representative individual level survey data from the us department of labor our approach allows us to conduct a counterfactual policy experiment by changing the replacement rate we find that the impact of its change on the probability of exit from unemployment is inelastic copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

financial structure production and productivity evidence from the u s food manufacturing industry this study integrates production and financing to examine the impacts of financial structure change on the production profitability and productivity growth in the u s food manufacturing industry empirical results show that during the period covered by this study agency cost associated with increased debt use by this industry negatively affected its output growth input demand profitability and overall productivity growth dividend payment positively contributed to the production and performance of this industry via signaling benefit however the negative effects of increased debt use by this industry far outweighed the positive contribution of dividend payment the u s food industry achieved a 0 9 average annual productivity growth which came primarily from technological progress and capital adjustment the rapid increase in debt use by this industry was responsible for slowing down the pace of productivity growth via its negative contribution to the total factor productivity growth capital expansion was the principal driver of output growth and profitability in this industry

household strategies and rural livelihood diversification this article reviews the recent literature on diversification as a livelihood strategy of rural households in developing countries with particular reference to sub saharan africa livelihood diversification is defined as the process by which rural families construct a diverse portfolio of activities and social support capabilities in order to survive and to improve their standards of living the determinants and effects of diversification in the areas of poverty income distribution farm output and gender are examined some policy inferences are summarised the conclusion is reached that removal of constraints to and expansion of opportunities for diversification are desirable policy objectives because they give individuals and households more capabilities to improve livelihood security and to raise living standards

investment in u s agriculture resource adjustment problems in u s agriculture are motivated against the background of the farm problem the adjustment cost hypothesis is invoked to specify and estimate consistently a system of dynamic investment demand and output supply equations by utilizing recent advances in dynamic duality theory the investment demand equations assume the form of a multivariate flexible accelerator results indicate that labor capital services and land exhibited quasi fixity while intermediate materials were a variable factor this can be construed as a form of asset fixity within aggregate u s agriculture the univariate flexible accelerator hypothesis is rejected

high school completion and future youth unemployment new evidence from high school and beyond in this paper i provide new evidence from high school and beyond hsb on the effects of compulsory attendance on high school completion and future youth unemployment i develop bayesian estimation approaches to the simultaneous equation model with ordered probit and two limit censored regression and the bivariate duration model accounting for the heterogeneity in returns to education and the nonlinearity in the effects of compulsory attendance i find substantial variability in returns to education across schools and evidence of diminishing marginal effects of compulsory attendance on high school completion the simulation results suggest that increasing the compulsory attendance age raises the probability of completing high school and reduces the proportion of time the individuals are unemployed these effects are much more pronounced for disadvantaged students but less pronounced for advantaged students suggesting the potential effects of compulsory attendance on reducing the inequality in education and employment copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

productivity scale economies and technical change reconsidered recently several writers have presented theoretical arguments and empirical evidence that suggests that an electric utility s long run productivity growth rate can be decomposed into a variety of factors for example gollop and roberts 12 decompose a utility s total factor productivity growth rate into three distinct components 1 technical change 2 a scale effect and 3 an environmental regulatory factor results for the 1970s indicate that declining rates of technical change and output growth coupled with increased regulatory intensity lead to a noticeable decline in the firm s long run productivity growth rate similarly nelson and wohar 15 examine the impact of technical change scale economies and rate of return regulation on an electric utility s longrun productivity growth rate evidence suggests that the technical change and scale components behaved in a manner similar to the gollop and roberts 12 findings the evidence concerning the impact of the regulatory factor was less convincing due to the difficulty in obtaining reliable estimates of the regulatory constraint parameter a common characteristic of this literature is that the firms under investigation are assumed to employ all inputs at their long run cost minimizing levels as such the productivity decomposition model is primarily concerned with distinguishing between shifts in the production function versus movements along the production structure according to caves christensen and swanson 5 a violation of the long run equilibrium assumption adds an equally important factor to the decomposition of productivity growth specifically the movement toward or away from longrun equilibrium as a consequence researchers must further distinguish between long run and short run productivity growth estimates 2 in a recent article 9 daly and rao illustrate theoretically and empirically using a long run cost function and data pertaining to ontario hydro that a firm s long run productivity growth rate can be decomposed into 1 technical change 2 non constant returns to scale and 3 a capacity

the effects of public policy on strike duration hazard function estimates are utilized to analyze the effect of numerous public policy variables on strike duration based on 7 546 strikes in canada between 1967 and 1985 we find that only the mandatory strike vote substantially reduced conditional duration however the policy variables generally had a more favorable effect on reducing strike incidence so that on net they tended to reduce unconditional duration incidence times conditional duration specifically reduced unconditional duration was associated with the existence of conciliation and the requirement of a mandatory strike vote but the prohibition on replacement workers had a perverse effect