threshold effects in price transmission the case of brazilian wheat maize and soya prices recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs we develop a generalized threshold error correction model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium we use monthly wheat maize and soya prices from the united states argentina and brazil to demonstrate this model classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated

integration of spatial markets studies of spatial market integration draw their implications from a theory which assumes that there are no intraregional transport costs an alternative theory is offered based on the assumptions that buyers and sellers are spatially dispersed and intraregional transport costs are significant this implies that the market is a linked oligopoly or oligopsony and that market integration tests are tests of alternative oligopoly price formation processes for example collusive basing point pricing produces results typically assumed to imply efficiently integrated markets while competitive fob pricing does not the theoretical implications are illustrated with an analysis of hog prices in canada

theoretical approaches to monetary disinflation abstract during the 1980s many countries adopted tight monetary policies to reduce high inflation rates which were the legacy of the 1970s as inflation threatens to rise at the beginning of this decade this paper provides a survey of the 1980s literature which sought to provide theoretical understandings of how monetary disinflation is achieved four models are presented monetarist neo keynesian new classical and post keynesian each model s explanation of the recession which accompanies the monetary disinflation is outlined as well as possible policy measures to reduce the extent of the recession and to hasten the return to full employment

the formation of expected future price a reference price for forward looking consumers among numerous possible reference prices expected future price is important a consumer s expectation of the future price of a brand plays a crucial role in the decision to buy now or later failure to characterize reference price as a forward looking concept a common practice in the reference pricing literature violates premises of neoclassical economic theory and leads to questionable modeling applications explicit measures of future price expectations were obtained and used to test various models of expectations formation providing insight into the effect of expected future price on consumers responses to price promotions and brand choice decisions

cointegration and market integration an application to the indonesian rice market this article suggests improvements in the use of regression analysis to measure spatial market integration the procedure pioneered by ravallion is still widespread but is valid only under certain conditions of exogeneity the alternative offered here is an error correction mechanism which makes it possible to test for exogeneity as well as indicating the direction and strength of causality in price formation between markets the method is illustrated with data on rice prices in different parts of the indonesian market the results confirm among other things that supply sources are more important than demand sources in driving prices

testing market integration new approaches with case material from the west bengal food economy given the inferential dangers of received methods a new methodology is introduced to provide a sequence of tests using weekly spot prices to examine the dynamic relationship of market commodity prices in three locations in west bengal tests suggest that the markets are integrated but a lower degree of integration of paddy and rice prices is identified the hypothesis of full market integration is rejected structural and institutional factors which affect the specifics of performance are identified physical isolation the institutional complexity of marketing systems and contractual forms the polarisation of assets assets specificity the institutional control of information and price formation the underdevelopment of linked markets and the idiosyncratic implementation of state regulatory policy and auto regulatory responses enter the explanation

effects of fiscal policies on us agriculture according to the macro rational expectation mre hypothesis only unanticipated macroeconomic policy has impacts on real economic variables and anticipated policy changes have no real impacts this study analysis the effects of the anticipated and unanticipated components of fiscal policy on the us farm real gnp by testing the neutrality and rationality propositions of the mre hypothesis the test results show that both the rationality and neutrality propositions are rejected the empirical findings indicate that the anticipated fiscal policy does have significant effects on farm output examination of a specific sector sheds light on the nature of the market and helps ascertain the resons for the non neutrality

can position limits restrain rogue trading this paper studies the imposition of position limits on commodity futures from the perspective of curbing excessive speculation and thus manipulation we present a simple general equilibrium model in a static rational expectations framework and agent heterogeneity to illustrate that excessive speculation serves to enrich other agents at the expense of the speculator position limits on the contrary are not only superfluous but also counter productive as they exacerbate market power and lead to a deterioration in efficiency position limits not only reduce social welfare but also cannot restrain market manipulation

an explanation of each way wagers in three models of risky choice punters may engage in betting on both a selection in an event to finish first or in one of the number of places e g second third or fourth when the amounts staked with bookmakers at fixed odds on the win and place are equal it is called an each way bet each way bets are apparently popular with punters but inconsistent with prominent models of wagering which assume gamblers are everywhere risk seeking in this note we derive the conditions for win and place bets to be optimal in these three models of risky choice the mathematical conditions for the each way wager to be optimal as opposed to a win and place wager with different stakes are complicated and appear likely to occur rarely in practice however bettors obviously see the attraction in giving themselves two ways to bet on the one horse or two ways to win and betting each way we suggest part of the each way betting attraction is that they are quick and easy to compute a heuristic to solve an otherwise complex betting strategy

rational expectations in the aggregate this paper investigates the relationship between the way rational expectations is employed in practice and the argument initially put forth to justify its use in practice rational expectations has meant that the expectations of each agent taken separately is consistent with the predictions of the theory this is different than the argument frequently used by proponents of rational expectations that on an aggregate level expectations should be consistent with the theory the primary findings are that standard and aggregate rational expectations typically yield systematically different equilibria and that the size of the difference depends positively on the degree of synergism

market analysis methods are our enriched toolkits well suited to enlivened markets the past fifteen years have brought historic reduction of government intervention in agricultural markets in the developing world most economists and policy makers believe these reforms enliven markets previously fettered by excessive government authority nonetheless the impact of market oriented reforms on the spatial and intertemporal extent and the competitiveness of markets remains an inherently empirical question meanwhile there also have been major innovations in methods used to analyze markets and prices due largely to the rapidly emerging time series econometric literature agricultural economists toolkits have changed nearly as rapidly and dramatically as have developing economy markets but can these enriched toolkits answer the

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

wagering on more than one outcome in an event in cumulative prospect theory and rank dependent utility in this letter we illustrate a previously unrecognised implication of cumulative prospect theory and rank dependent utility we demonstrate that the representative individual in both models will often engage in wagering on more than one outcome in an event for instance when playing european roulette the representative agents in cpt or rdu will always optimally wager on more than one outcome this implication contrasts with expected utility models of wagering based on risk seeking preferences due to the assumption of a convex segment of the utility function

consumer price and promotion expectations an experimental study the authors report results from a controlled experiment designed to investigate the impact of a brand s price promotion frequency and the depth of promotional price discounts on the price consumers

an index of loss aversion to a considerable extent risk aversion as it is commonly observed is caused by loss aversion several indexes of loss aversion have been proposed in the literature the one proposed in this paper leads to a clear decomposition of risk attitude into three distinct components basic utility probability weighting and loss aversion the index is independent of the unit of payment the main theorem shows how the indexes of different decision makers can be compared through observed choices

elections and the fed is there a political monetary cycle to understand the political causes of macroeconomic policy it is necessary to examine the institutions that actually make such policy and the incentives those institutions face an explanation of the political causes of united states monetary policy must treat the various institutions that are influential in the monetary policy process which are at a minimum the federal reserve fed and the executive including the president the treasury department and other advisors in the executive office of the president the reelection motive has proven useful in modeling presidential incentives in this article i investigate whether electoral incentives associated with the theory of the political business cycle pbc can help to explain the behavior of the fed over the last quarter century the political business cycle has had a curious hold on modern political economy while the empirical evidence in favor of the cycle is far from overwhelming its theoretical importance leads to continuing empirical

transfer costs spatial arbitrage and testing for food market integration conventional tests for food market integration ask often misleadingly whether prices in different locations move together in this paper an alternative methodology the parity bounds model pbm is developed which uses information on transfer costs in addition to food prices to assess the efficiency of spatial arbitrage monte carlo experiments using data generated by a point space spatial price equilibrium model show the pbm to be statistically reliable an application to philippine rice markets demonstrates that the pbm detects efficient arbitrage when other tests do not

market integration efficiency of arbitrage and imperfect competition methodology and application to u s celery this paper develops and applies a methodology to test for efficiency of interregional commodity arbitrage application of the methodology requires only time series data on prices for alternative cities regions countries or product forms yet the approach is capable of generating evidence on a number of market parameters including market integration arbitrage efficiency the magnitude of marketing margins product substitutability and competitiveness of markets estimation is based on a switching regression model with three regimes efficient arbitrage relative shortage and relative glut results from application of the model to u s celery marketing indicated significant departures from efficient arbitrage for both california and florida celery

pricing home mortgages and bank collateral a rational expectations approach the efficiency of the housing finance system is of interest to homeowners financial intermediaries and policy makers we study the design of optimal mortgage contracts for risk averse economic agents with access to symmetric information on the payoffs of a risky home our non linear framework helps demonstrate the pareto efficiency of a risk free loan over its risky counterpart it also allows us to evaluate the unique equilibrium interest rate loan amount and home price in contrast to the capital structure theorems finally we conduct numerical simulations in lieu of comparative statics to shed some light on the complex causal relationship between mortgage pricing parameters and the underlying collateral i e home value

stabilisation policy rational expectations and price level versus inflation targeting a survey we survey literature comparing inflation targeting it and price level targeting pt as macroeconomic stabilisation policies our focus is on new keynesian models and areas that have seen significant developments since ambler s 2009 price level targeting and stabilisation policy a survey journal of economic surveys 23 5 974 997 survey optimal monetary policy the zero lower bound financial frictions and transition costs of adopting a pt regime ambler s conclusion that pt improves social welfare in new keynesian models is fairly robust but we note an interesting split in the literature pt consistently outperforms it in models where policymakers commit to simple taylor type rules but results in favour of pt when policymakers minimise loss functions are overturned with small deviations from the baseline model since the beneficial effects of pt appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy new keynesian we discuss survey and experimental evidence on rational expectations and the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of new keynesian models overall the evidence is not clear cut but we note that new keynesian models can pass formal statistical tests against macro data and that models with rational expectations outperform those with behavioural expectations i e heuristics in direct statistical tests we therefore argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to pt

intertemporal allocation in the corn and soybean markets with rational expectations this paper addresses the intertemporal allocation of supplies and the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices in the u s corn and soybeans markets these markets were selected for study because of their importance in the u s grain trade and in u s futures markets on the chicago board of trade in 1981 these two grains accounted for 81 26 of all trading in grain futures simultaneous equations models of commodity futures markets have received some attention in the literature stein 1961 1964 developed a two equation simultaneous model comprising functional relationships for discretionary hedging and speculation in commodity markets more recently dewbre estimated a two equation model of spot and futures price determination in commodity markets with rational expectations our study however constitutes the first application of a simultaneous equations model to a comparative study of u s commodity markets with separate functional relationships for long and short hedgers long and short speculators in futures and consumers and holders of unhedged inventories this model is based on peston and yamey although that model did not account explicitly for the activities of long hedgers and short speculators the next section discusses the specification of the equations and the third section outlines the data and estimation method employed the results and validation of the model are discussed in the fourth section the conclusions are stated in the last section while cash and futures prices are endogenous variables in this model the variances of these prices are not treated as endogenous moreover the model is estimated separately for the corn and soybeans markets rather than as a joint model for corn and soybeans products both these matters may be worthwhile extensions of the approach employed here although they go beyond what is attempted in this paper

testing market integration a model of spatial price differentials for a tradable good is proposed which avoids the inferential dangers of received methods using static price correlations the proposed method also extracts more information on the causes of price differentials from the same data the method is illustrated using monthly rice price data for postindependence bangladesh including the very substantial regional price shocks during the 1974 famine impediments to market integration are indicated

on market integration and liberalisation method and application to ethiopia the article suggests further improvements in the methodology to analyse market integration it provides corrections to and methodological extensions of recent work in this journal it also presents a way of applying market integration techniques to the analysis of shocks such as market liberalisation and war the method is applied to the effects of liberalisation and the end of the civil war on food markets in ethiopia the conclusion is that liberalisation had important effects on the long run and short run integration of food markets