resale price maintenance in an oligopoly with uncertain demand abstract this paper considers a model where oligopolistic manufacturers sell to consumers through competitive retailers who face demand uncertainty the setup is a symmetric duopoly with product differentiation and a perfectly competitive retail market in the game with unconstrained price competition there is price dispersion in the retail market in the game with resale price maintenance rpm manufacturers profits are higher retail inventories are at least as high and total surplus is at least as high the effect of rpm on consumer surplus is ambiguous rpm also precludes possible coordination failure between the manufacturers

does competition reduce price dispersion new evidence from the airline industry we analyze the effects of competition on price dispersion in the airline industry using panel data from 1993 q1 through 2006 q3 competition has a negative effect on price dispersion in line with the textbook treatment of price discrimination this effect is pronounced for routes with consumers characterized by relatively heterogeneous elasticities of demand on routes with a homogeneous customer base the effects of competition on price dispersion are smaller our results contrast with those of borenstein and rose who found that price dispersion increases with competition we reconcile the different results by showing that the cross sectional estimator suffers from omitted variable bias

productivity market power and capacity utilization when spot markets are complete our test of price taking behavior looks at the choice of capacity rather than the choice of output it is motivated by a complete spot markets model in which goods are distinguished by the selling probabilities in addition to other characteristics when output is explained by total man hours and a capacity utilization proxy the coefficient of the first variable is the elasticity of capacity with respect to fixed labor under competition and risk neutrality this coefficient is equal to an average labor share we use this observation to interpret abbot griliches hausman s regressions and to argue that once the capacity utilization proxy is included in the regression hall s data at the manufacturing level fail to reject the joint hypothesis of competition and risk neutrality it is also argued that the coefficient of total man hours does not tell us anything about monopoly power once the capacity utilization proxy is omitted from the regression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

distribution contracts to support optimal inventory holdings under demand uncertainty abstract when suppliers produce products for which demand is uncertain they face a problem of inducing downstream distributors to stock inventory levels that the suppliers prefer this paper considers a wide array of alternative supply contracts each of which consists of a mixture of constant per unit wholesale prices buy back arrangements and post sale payments contingent on sales made such as revenue sharing or buybacks we show that linear supply contracts specifying any combination of two of these three instruments can implement the vertical integrated outcome for a monopoly thereby generating the supplier s preferred inventory configuration and price distribution we extend our results to differentiated product oligopoly demonstrating that each supplier obtains its preferred inventory configuration and price distribution given the choices of its rival distributors choose optimal inventories from the suppliers standpoint even if suppliers do not know the distribution of demand uncertainty and given the perfect competition among distributors all profits in the supply chain are captured by suppliers thus suppliers are able to deal with demand uncertainty with remarkably little information about demand and without the need to control dealer actions in detail in particular suppliers need not specify either dealer inventories or resale prices but instead encourage distributors to order based on information in their possession and to set prices that generate desirable resale price dispersion

price dispersion over the business cycle evidence from the airline industry this study provides empirical evidence documenting how price dispersion moves with the business cycle in the airline industry performing a fixed effects panel analysis on seventeen years of data covering two business cycles we find that price dispersion is highly pro cyclical this effect is especially pronounced for legacy carriers relative to low cost carriers we show that our empirical result is consistent with firms implementing second degree price discrimination tactics

saving investment correlations in developing countries abstract many studies report that the regression coefficient of saving on investment is small in developing countries we demonstrate that this finding and higher saving investment correlations in oecd countries can be explained by differences in financial structure across countries

separating between unobserved consumer types evidence from airlines we propose an alternative approach to identify unobserved consumer types and assess whether firms price discriminate unlike other screening schemes that rely on quantity discounts or product differentiation in our finite mixture structure individuals have unit demands and the product is homogeneous we implement the model using an original u s airlines data set the results support the existence of two demand types the high type business traveler is less price sensitive has a higher valuation and pays a higher price than the low type tourist the proportion of high types also increases as the departure date nears jel c23 l93 r41

using yield management to shift demand when the peak time is unknown traditional peak load and stochastic peak load models assume firms have prior information about when peak demand occurs however price dispersion such as is typically used by firms practicing yield management can achieve some of the same efficient demand shifting even when the peak time is unknown equilibrium price dispersion arises because of stochastic demand and price rigidities but a previously unexplored benefit of price dispersion is its ability to reduce equilibrium capacity costs through demand shifting the model also suggests how yield management now more commonly called revenue management might actually benefit business travellers contrary to the popular prejudice

note the newsvendor model with endogenous demand this paper considers a firm s price and inventory policy when it faces uncertain demand that depends on both price and inventory level the authors extend the classic newsvendor model by assuming that expected utility maximizing consumers choose between visiting the firm and consuming an exogenous outside option the outside option represents the utility the consumer forgoes when she chooses to visit the firm before knowing whether or not the product will be available the authors investigate both the case in which the firm s price is exogenous and the case in which price is chosen optimally the paper makes two contributions first the authors show that the firm holds more inventories provides a higher fill rate attracts more customers and earns higher profits when it internalizes the effect of its inventory on demand second the authors show that in the endogenous price case the firm s two dimensional decision problem can be reduced to two sequential single variable optimizations as a result the endogenous price case is as easy to solve as the exogenous price case

toward a theory of competitive price adjustment in his 1959 essay toward a theory of price adjustment arrow argued that there exists a logical gap in the usual formulations of the theory of perfectly competitive economy namely that there is no place for a rational decision with respect to prices as there is with respect to quantities see also koopmans 1957 this gap is especially felt in macroeconomics where the basic framework is that of perfect competition and many results depend on the existence of some lag in the adjustment of prices here i propose a first step toward a theory of price adjustment in a competitive environment i shall consider here a simple exchange economy with no money the application to the question of the real effects of changes in the money supply is discussed in a separate paper eden 1980 the main cost of adjustment considered here is the cost of information about changes in aggregate excess demand the question is who will gather and pay for the information this public good problem is analysed in a model in which the artificial entity of the auctioneer is replaced by firms sellers who seek information about excess demand and announce the prices of their products the public good aspect of the problem emerges when there is a unique optimal price which would be announced on the basis of old information shared by all participants then if a single firm buys new information and announces a different price all firms which are aware of this revised price will rightly think that it is based on updated information and will therefore follow the lead in this case the announced price transmits all the relevant new information to all firms and the firm that updates the information therefore provides that public good which in the walrasian model is provided by the auctioneer 2 the question is which firm will undertake the function of the auctioneer the solution suggested here is that all firms will adopt a mixed strategy in which they undertake this function with a certain probability it is shown however that there is always a positive probability that the prices advertised in a particular market will not be based on updated information since otherwise there would be no incentive to buy information in the second section i describe the process of advertising prices for the case in which the aggregate demand that sellers in a particular market face is exogenously given and infinitely elastic i then discuss the type of framework required to justify such demand curves and show that in general the walrasian price is not the average of advertised prices

dynamic competition with random demand and costless search a theory of price posting this paper studies a dynamic model of perfectly competitive price posting under demand uncertainty firms must produce output in advance after observing aggregate sales in prior periods firms post prices for their unsold output in each period the demand of a new batch of consumers is randomly activated existing customers who have not yet bought and then new customers arrive at the market in random order observe the posted prices and either purchase at the lowest available price or delay their purchase decision we construct a sequential equilibrium in which the output produced and its allocation across consumers is efficient thus consumers endogenously sort themselves efficiently with the highest valuations purchasing first transaction prices in each period rise continuously as firms become more optimistic about demand followed by a market correction by the last period prices are market clearing

country specific effect in the feldstein horioka paradox a panel data analysis abstract using panel data methods this study leads to a new interpretation of the feldstein horioka paradox a high estimated saving investment coefficient may be due less to low capital mobility than to the existence of specific individual country effects

the feldstein horioka puzzle revisited abstract krol 1996 argues that the feldstein horioka puzzle is the result of the estimation technique that using fixed effect panel regression low saving retention coefficients are found however krol s study has been criticized as revolving around the inclusion of luxembourg this paper reexamines the luxembourg problem by applying kao and chiang s 2001 dols and fmols estimators to non stationary panel data of 20 oecd countries our empirical evidences show that the inclusion or exclusion of luxembourg does not affect the estimation results instead the power of the estimation technique and of the hypothesis test matters this result is interpreted as the higher power of cointegration analysis in panel data

a theory of clearance sales clearance sales are widely used by firms as an intertemporal selling policy in particular in markets where firms face demand uncertainty and need to choose capacity in advance clearance sales consist in charging a high price initially but then lowering the price in the sales period high valuation consumers purchase the good at the high initial price so as to avoid rationing at the low price while low valuation consumers wait for the price to drop we develop a simple model of intertemporal monopoly pricing under demand uncertainty and show that clearance sales may be the optimal intertemporal selling policy

dynamic pricing advance sales and aggregate demand learning in airlines this paper uses a unique u s airlines panel data set to empirically study the dynamic pricing of inventories with uncertain demand over a finite horizon i estimate a dynamic pricing equation and a dynamic demand equation that jointly characterize the adjustment process between prices and sales as the flight date nears i find that the price increases as the inventory decreases and decreases as there is less time to sell consistent with aggregate demand learning and price adjustment demand shocks have a positive and much larger effect on prices than the positive effect of anticipated sales

de facto financial openness and capital mobility abstract this paper shows that de facto financial openness does does not increase capital mobility in developing developed countries and that capital is is not freely mobile in the most financially open developing developed countries

airline pricing under different market conditions evidence from european low cost carriers abstract traditional theories of airline pricing maintain that fares monotonically increase as fewer seats remain available on a flight this implies a monotonically increasing temporal profile of fares in this paper we exploit the presence of drops in offered fares over time as an indicator of an active yield management intervention by two main european low cost carriers and measure its effectiveness we find that reduction of the offered airfare by one standard deviation raises a flight s load factor on average by 2 7 percent a measure unaffected by the intensity of competition in a route furthermore yield management interventions are less effective the higher the share of leisure holiday and visiting friends and relatives traffic on the route this result runs counter to the common perception of leisure passengers being more responsive to price changes

product variety and demand uncertainty why markups vary with quality we demonstrate that demand uncertainty can explain equilibrium product variety in the presence of sunk costs product variety is an efficient response to uncertainty because it reduces the expected costs associated with excess capacity we find that within the firm s product line the highest quality product has the highest profit margin but the lowest percentage margin while the lowest quality product has the highest percentage margin but the lowest absolute margin both of these relationships are consistent with evidence available from marketing studies what determines the breadth of a firm s product line we show that when production costs must be sunk in anticipation of demand demand uncertainty can lead to an increase in product variety by limiting their inventory of high quality goods and selling low quality goods once their high quality goods have stocked out firms reduce the costs associated with demand uncertainty the model helps explain the extent of product differentiation and suggests a rationale for many common retailing practices such as the use of private labels and full product line forcing by manufacturers the model also yields the testable empirical prediction that higher quality products earn higher absolute margins and lower percentage margins while differences in preferences provide a convincing explanation in many cases for product variety in retail stores we argue that another

generation capacity expansion in a risky environment a stochastic equilibrium analysis we cast models of the generation capacity expansion type formally developed for the monopoly regime into equilibrium models better adapted for a competitive environment we focus on some of the risks faced today by investors in generation capacity and thus pose the problem as a stochastic equilibrium model we illustrate the approach on the problem of the incentive to invest agents can be risk neutral or risk averse we model risk aversion through the cvar of plants profit the cvar induces risk adjusted probabilities according to which investors value their plants the model is formulated as a complementarity problem including the cvar valuation of investments an illustration is provided on a small problem that captures several features of today s electricity world a choice often restricted to coal and gas units a peaky load curve because of wind penetration uncertain fuel prices and an evolving carbon market we assess the potential of the approach by comparing energy only and capacity market organizations in this risky environment our results can be summarized as follows a deterministic analysis overlooks some changes of capacity structure induced by risk whether in the capacity market or energy only organizations the risk neutral analysis also misses a shift towards less capital intensive technologies that may result from risk aversion last risk aversion also increases the shortage of capacity compared to the risk neutral view in the energy only market when the price cap is low this may have a dramatic impact on the bill to the final consumer the approach relies on mathematical programming techniques and can be extended to full size problems the results are illustrative and may deserve more investigation

adam smith s answer to the feldstein horioka paradox the invisible hand revisited abstract adam smith explained the feldstein horioka paradox arguing that it is the pursuit of security that leads owners of capital to invest at home and that it is the pursuit of security not profit that leads them to promote the good of society

the relation between price and marginal cost in u s industry an examination of data on output and labor input reveals that some u s industries have marginal cost well below price the conclusion rests on the finding that cyclical variations in labor input are small compared with variations in output in booms firms produce substantially more output and sell it for a price that exceeds the costs of the added inputs the paper documents the disparity between price and marginal cost where marginal cost is estimated from annual variations in cost it considers a variety of explanations of the findings that are consistent with competition but none is found to be completely plausible

the cyclical behavior of marginal cost and price the author examines the cyclical behavior of price marginal cost margins for u s manufac turing after 1956 short run marginal cost is markedly procyclical this is primarily due to procyclical overtime payments incurred beca use employment is not perfectly flexible in most industries output price fails to respond to the cyclical movement in marginal cost so price marginal cost margins are markedly countercyclical the res ults contradict business cycle theories that explain low production i n a recession by a high real cost of producing they support theories that explain low production in a recession by the inability of firms to sell their output copyright 1987 by american economic association

systematic peak load pricing congestion premia and demand diverting empirical evidence abstract this paper finds empirical support to systematic peak load pricing in airlines higher fares in ex ante known congested periods it estimates a congestion premia and supports the main empirical prediction in gale and holmes gale i holmes t 1993 advance purchase discounts and monopoly allocation of capacity american economic review 83 135 146 less discount seats on peak flights

asymmetric capacity constraints and equilibrium price dispersion abstract price dispersion arises despite perfect information about prices in equilibrium the higher capacity firm adopts a high price high availability strategy the lower capacity firm adopts a low price low availability strategy and consumers are more likely to shop at the high price firm

how do capital controls affect international trade abstract trade effects of capital controls have not been thoroughly examined empirically using a new dataset of capital controls on both inflows and outflows we study the impact of capital controls on international trade by augmenting the gravity model with capital controls the results consistently show that capital controls are correlated more with exports rather than imports inward capital controls reduce exports while outward capital controls promote exports

marginal cost pricing when spot markets are complete the standard formulation of a spot market subject to uncertain excess demand uses a tatonnement process that restricts trade until the market clearing price is found here i present a model in which there is no restriction on trade during the process of the resolution of uncertainty about aggregate excess demand the idea is to enlarge the commodity space and define goods by the probability that they will sell in addition to other characteristics the probability of sale characteristic is the spot market analogue of the contingencies under which delivery will take place in the arrow debreu model a failure to distinguish goods by the probability of sale characteristic can lead to the rejection of the competitive paradigm even when everyone is a price taker and the allocation is efficient

equilibrium price dispersion under demand uncertainty the roles of costly capacity and market structure when capacity is costly and prices are set in advance firms facing uncertain demand will sell output at multiple prices and limit the quantity available at each price i show that the optimal price strategy of a monopolist and the unique pure strategy nash equilibria of oligopolists both exhibit intrafirm price dispersion moreover as the market becomes more competitive prices become more dispersed a pattern documented in the airline industry while generating similar predictions the model differs from the revenue management literature because it disregards market segmentation and fare restrictions that screen customers

monopoly price dispersion under demand uncertainty when a monopolist sets its price before its demand is known then it may set more than one price and limit the availability of its output at lower prices this article adds demand uncertainty and price rigidities to the standard model of monopoly pricing when there are two states of demand and the ex post monopoly price is greater when demand is high then the monopolist s optimal ex ante pricing strategy is to set two prices and limit purchases at the lower price

inflation and relative price variability abstract the unconditional variance of the rate of nominal price change can always be expressed as a function of the unconditional mean therefore the relationship between the unconditional variance and the unconditional mean cannot be used to distinguish among alternative theories

inefficient trade patterns excessive trade cross hauling and dumping abstract i study an example of a competitive environment in which trade occurs in a sequential manner in this example a country with a stable demand may suffer from trade with a country with unstable demand there may be too much trade a country may import and export the same good in the same period cross hauling and dumping may occur the timing of delivery is important when delivery occurs before trade delivery to stocks trade improves welfare there is dumping but no cross hauling when delivery occurs after trade delivery to order trade may reduce welfare and cross hauling may occur

savings investment and international capital flows abstract the high correlation between national savings and domestic investment rateshas been interpreted as evidence that capital is not internationally mobile this paper surveys the theory and evidence on the relationship between savings and investment in a sample of 23 oecd countries a positive correlation between savings and investment rates is found in both the short and long runs however a wide variety of models generate such co movements in savings and investment in response to exogenous disturbances even under conditions of complete financial markets thus the savings investment correlation provides little evidence on the question of international capital mobility

price dispersion and demand uncertainty evidence from u s scanner data i use the prescott 1975 hotels model to explain variations in price dispersion across items sold by supermarkets in chicago the effect of demand uncertainty on price dispersion is highly significant and quantitatively important my estimates suggest that more than 40 of the cross sectional standard deviation of log prices is due to demand uncertainty i also find that price dispersion measures are negatively correlated with the average price but are not negatively correlated with the revenues from selling the good across stores and weeks and with the number of stores that sell the good temporary sales are modeled as a reaction to unwanted inventories that are accumulated when the realization of demand is low the effect of demand uncertainty on the frequency of temporary sales is also highly significant and quantitatively important items with more demand uncertainty tend to accumulate unwanted inventories more often and tend to have temporary sales more often

revenue management without commitment dynamic pricing and periodic flash sales a seller has a fixed number of goods to sell by a deadline at each time he posts a regular price and decides whether to hold a flash sale over time buyers privately enter the market and strategically time their purchases if a buyer does not purchase when she arrives she can pay an attention cost to recheck the regular price afterwards or she can wait for future flash sales where she may obtain a good at a discounted price in the unique markov perfect equilibrium the seller sporadically holds flash sales to lower the stock of goods a flash sale increases the willingness to pay of future buyers but decreases the willingness to pay of buyers who arrive early in the game when it is very likely that a buyer will obtain a good in a flash sale the seller holds a big initial flash sale for all but one unit of the good

why are prices sticky the dynamics of wholesale gasoline prices the menu cost interpretation of sticky prices implies that the probability of a price change should depend on the past history of prices and fundamentals only through the gap between the current price and the frictionless price we find that this prediction is broadly consistent with the behavior of nine philadelphia gasoline wholesalers nevertheless we reject the menu cost model as a literal description of these firms behavior arguing instead that price stickiness arises from strategic considerations of how customers and competitors will react to price changes

feldstein horioka meets a time trend abstract much of the literature relating to the feldstein horioka puzzle misses two major points it is obvious there should be a home bias and that this bias should be falling through time our empirical analysis is consistent with these points

money and inventories in an economy with uncertain and sequential trade abstract we propose a model in which an unanticipated reduction in the money supply leads to a contemporaneous increase in inventories followed by periods with lower output this persistent real effect does not require price rigidities or real shocks and confusion it is obtained in a model of uncertain and sequential trade in which markets are cleared and agents are price takers

globalization and the feldstein horioka puzzle capital account liberalization and the integration of world financial markets should increase capital mobility across countries this article uses the feldstein horioka savings investment methodology to examine the impact of economic globalization on the degree of capital mobility in 99 countries over the period 1970 to 2005 our findings suggest that economic openness and financial market integration have led to increased capital mobility in developed as well as developing countries however their effect appears to be larger for the latter this also implies that countries with more financial openness can run higher current account deficits due to better access to external capital markets our results also support the previous findings that foreign aid supplements domestic savings for investment in developing countries