models for referendum data the structure of discrete choice models for contingent valuation abstract in 1979 bishop and heberlein introduced an appealing variant of the contingent valuation method which required only yes or no responses hanemann developed a utility theoretic interpretation of the yes no responses which has helped popularize the approach recently cameron has offered another interpretation also utility theoretic which she argues is more general than the hanemann random utility model this paper compares the deterministic models suggested by hanemann and cameron showing them to be dual to each other it shows that correct specification of either function must exclude endogenous variables such as quantity demanded it also demonstrates that using utility theoretic models allows one to compare travel cost models and contigent valuation models on the basis of their implied behavior not on the unobservable surplus or variation measure

life cycle preferences over consumption and health a comment on bleichrodt and quiggin abstract in a recent issue of the journal of health economics bleichrodt and quiggin 1999 developed a model of life cycle preferences over consumption and health to analyze qaly based decision making this analysis is crtically appraised concerning issues of qaly maximization on an individual and on an aggregate level as well as of the role of death in qaly models it is concluded that a more general approach might be useful for the analysis of qalys and life cycle preferences over consumption and health

equity weights in the allocation of health care the rank dependent qaly model this paper introduces the rank dependent quality adjusted life years qaly model a new method to aggregate qalys in economic evaluations of health care the rank dependent qaly model permits the formalization of influential concepts of equity in the allocation of health care such as the fair innings approach and it includes as special cases many of the social welfare functions that have been proposed in the literature an important advantage of the rank dependent qaly model is that it offers a straightforward procedure to estimate equity weights for qalys we characterize the rank dependent qaly model and argue that its central condition has normative appeal

statistical efficiency of double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation the statistical efficiency of conventional dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys can be improved by asking each respondent a second dichotomous choice question which depends on the response to the first question if the first response is yes the second bid is some amount greater than the first bid while if the first response is no the second bid is some amount smaller this double bounded approach is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the conventional singlebounded approach using data from a survey of californians regarding their willingness to pay for wetlands in the san joaquin valley we show that in a finite sample the gain in efficiency can be very substantial

estimating the public s value of implementing the co2 emissions trading scheme in korea abstract the korean government set out the carbon dioxide co2 emissions reduction target as 30 below business as usual by 2020 the co2 emissions trading scheme ets was initiated in january 2015 to meet this target we attempt to estimate the public s value of implementing the ets for co2 emissions reduction we apply the contingent valuation cv method using the willingness to pay wtp data obtained from a national cv survey of 1000 randomly selected households the survey was conducted via in person interviews value judgments required of the respondents were within their abilities the mean wtp to achieve the stated target of co2 emissions reduction using ets is estimated to be krw 1873 usd 1 66 per household per month which is statistically significant at the 1 level the aggregate national value amounts to krw 409 2 billion usd 363 4 million per year thus even though korea has no obligations to cut emissions under the kyoto protocol the public is willing to bear a financial burden to implement the ets if its cost is less than this value implementing the ets can be socially profitable the results of this study can serve as a basis for further policy discussions and decisions

the public s willingness to pay for securing a reliable natural gas supply in korea with the increasing importance of natural gas ng in the energy mix the search for a reliable liquefied ng lng supply has received great attention along with energy security in korea however the current level of lng supply reliability in korea is much lower than that in other industrialized countries in order to improve the reliability of the lng supply diverse policy measures are required which come at an additional cost paid by society this study aims to investigate the public s willingness to pay wtp for improving the reliability of the lng supply by increasing the lng storage rate from the current level 11 to 20 to this end the contingent valuation cv method is applied by using national survey data of 1000 households in particular this study employs a one and one half bound oohb dichotomous choice model combined with a spike model to address the responses from the cv survey with zero wtp the annual mean wtp is estimated to be krw 9641 usd 8 68 per household expanding the value to the national population provides a value of krw 169 43 billion usd 152 55 million the results indicate that people are willing to shoulder the burden of safeguarding a reliable supply of lng

social indicators and comparisons of living standards abstract construction of an international index of standards of living incorporating social indicators and economic output typically involves scaling and weighting procedures that lack welfare economic foundations revealed preference axioms can be used to make quality of life comparisons if we can estimate the representative household s production technology for the social indicators this method is applied to comparisons of gross domestic product gdp and life expectancy for 58 countries neither gdp rankings nor the rankings of the human development index hdi are consistent with the partial ordering of revealed preference a method of constructing a utility consistent index incorporating both consumption and life expectancy is suggested

the reasonableness of non constant discounting abstract the typical method for valuing the future goods and harms of a public policy alternative is by means of a constant annual discount rate this paper examines the reasonableness for public policy analysis of non constant discounting methods that unlike constant discounting can accord considerable importance to outcomes in the distant future we examine temporal consistency and economic efficiency as reasons for the use of constant discounting and we argue that these reasons do not apply for a public policy choice whose effects are long range and irreversible

sequence effects in the valuation of multiple environmental programs using the contingent valuation method in contingent valuation the willingness to pay for hypothetical programs may be affected by the order in which programs are presented to respondents with inclusive lists economic theory suggests that sequence effects should be expected however when policy makers allocate public budgets to several environmental programs they may be interested in assessing the value of the programs without the valuations being affected by the order in which the programs are presented using single bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions we show that if respondents have the possibility to revise their willingness to pay answers sequence effects are mitigated

qalys and hyes under what conditions are they equivalent the paper examines what restrictions have to be imposed on the individual s preference structure for qalys and hyes to yield identical results it is shown that using qalys involves imposing three additional restrictions empirical evidence suggests that these restrictions cannot be expected to hold in all applications the main problem in using hyes appears to be practical an alternative index is proposed that may help to bridge the gap between qalys and hyes by combining to some extent the advantages of the two measures

estimating willingness to pay for renewable energy in south korea using the contingent valuation method the importance of renewable energy as a response to climate change is universally acknowledged however its successful implementation requires public approval and cooperation this study aims to identify the level of renewable energy acceptance in korea by estimating korean consumers additional willingness to pay wtp using the contingent valuation cv method which is the most widely used to analyze consumer preferences the estimation results indicate that korean consumers are willing to pay an additional usd 3 21 per month for electricity generated with renewable energy however wtp in korea is low relative to other advanced nations indicating that these values could be influenced through policies aimed at improving knowledge and acceptance of renewable energy sources among korean consumers

social demand for electricity from forest biomass in spain does payment periodicity affect the willingness to pay in this article we analyze social preferences for a partial substitution programme of electricity generated by conventional energy sources for energy generated from a local renewable energy source such as forest biomass this analysis sets arguments in favour of accelerating the introduction of this renewable technology in the spanish electricity system simultaneously two methodological goals concerning the contingent valuation method are discussed in the first one we analyze if there are statistical differences in the willingness to pay wtp when a single or a double bounded format is employed to ask the valuation question results show that wtp estimates from single and double bounded significantly differ in the second one we analyze the effect of the periodicity of the payment vehicle on the estimates of welfare change the timeframe specification of the payment vehicle has been scarcely studied and this fact constitutes the main contribution of this paper to the specialized literature results show that periodicity influences upon the probability to favour the proposed change the periodicity does not affect to the mean wtp obtained in the single bounded format but there are statistical differences in the double bounded format these results might be explained by the presence of yea saying and payment scale bias

consumer demand for green power and energy efficiency abstract this article examines reported willingness to pay for electric utility investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency resources using the results of deliberative polls conducted by electric utilities in texas 1 age education and salary tend to affect reported willingness to pay for utility investments in these resources intensive exposure to information about energy resource issues led to an increase in the number of respondents interested in paying a modest premium to support investments in both renewable energy resources and energy efficiency however average reported premiums actually declined following the polls as very high outlier responses moved to more reasonable values following the polls these results support the contention that informed dialogue about energy alternatives will result in broader interest in providing a modest level of support for these resources

willingness to pay and the distribution of risk and wealth willingness to pay wtp most economists believe is an appropriate benefits metric for government expenditure and regulatory policies that reduce risks to human life it depends however on the distribution of risk and wealth currently society s expenditures overemphasize concentrated risks say after the fact treatment as opposed to prevention a dead anyway effect complements excess attention to intense interests in explaining this our normative criterion for spending on risk reduction is what a rational albeit uninsured individual confronting lotteries on future risks to life and wealth would choose for himself this requires correcting wtp to eliminate the dead anyway effect but continues to reflect that wealth enhances the utility of living

one and one half bound dichotomous choice contingent valuation to reduce the potential for response bias on the follow up bid in multiple bound discrete choice cvm questions while maintaining much of the efficiency gains of the multiple bound approach we introduce the one and one half bound oohb approach despite the fact that the oohb model uses less information than the double bound db approach efficiency gains in moving from single bound to oohb capture a large portion of the gain associated with moving from single bound to db in an analysis of survey data our oohb estimates demonstrated higher consistency with respect to the follow up data than the db estimates and were more efficient as well

public support for reducing us reliance on fossil fuels investigating household willingness to pay for energy research and development abstract in order to reduce future dependence on foreign oil and emissions of co2 how much would us households be willing to pay annually to support increased energy research and development r d activities designed to replace fossil fuels does it matter whether the r d includes nuclear energy options we explore these questions using data from a unique set of national telephone and internet surveys using a national advisory referendum format the contingent valuation method is applied to estimate annual household willingness to pay wtp for us household support of a national energy research and development fund erdf for investments in energy sources not reliant on fossil fuels while accounting for the level of un certainty in voting responses the wtp modeling includes a comparison of both classic maximum likelihood estimation mle and bayesian analysis evidence indicates that mle and bayesian analysis achieve similar statistical inference while the bayesian analysis provides a narrower confidence interval around estimated wtp

anomalies in intertemporal choice evidence and an interpretation research on decision making under uncertainly has been strongly influenced by the documentation of numerous expected utility eu anomalies behaviors that violate the expected utility axioms the relative lack of progress on the closely related topic of intertemporal choice is partly due to the absence of an analogous set of discounted utility du anomalies we enumerate a set of du anomalies analogous to the eu anomalies and propose a model that accounts for the anomalies as well as other intertemporal choice phenomena incompatible with du we discuss implications for savings behavior estimation of discount rates and choice framing effects

do contingent valuation estimates pass a scope test a meta analysis abstract this paper considers the scope test proposed to judge the internal consistency of contingent valuation estimates the test is shown to be quite sensitive to the maintained hypotheses required to derive fairly precise expectations for the properties of wtp functions and therefore a different approach may be needed in gauging the reliability of cv this paper describes an approach that relies on a weight of the evidence criterion and uses meta analysis to develop a systematic appraisal of what the economic values of changes in amenity resources are the approach is illustrated for the case of estimating people s willingness to pay for improving or maintaining visibility at the national parks

human development at risk economic growth with pollution induced health shocks risks to human health stemming from polluted air water and soil are substantial especially in the rapidly growing economies the present paper develops a theoretical framework to study an endogenously growing economy which is subject to pollution induced health shocks with the health status being an argument of the welfare function pollution arising as a negative externality from production adversely and randomly affects the regeneration ability of a human body leading to a decline in the overall health status of the population we include two types of uncertainty surrounding the health status continuous small scale fluctuations driven by the wiener process and large scale shocks or epidemics driven by the poisson process we derive closed form analytical solutions for the optimal abatement policy and the growth rate of consumption devoting a constant fraction of output to emissions abatement delivers the first best allocation this fraction is an increasing function of total factor productivity polluting intensity of production and damage intensity of both continuous and jump type shocks a higher frequency of jumps also calls for more vigorous abatement policies by contrast the optimal growth rate of the economy is decreasing in the frequency and intensity of shocks and in the polluting intensity of output the efficiency of abatement technology has in general an ambiguous bearing on both the growth rate and on the abatement share due to the opposing forces of the direct and indirect effects

household willingness to pay for expanding fuel cell power generation in korea a view from co2 emissions reduction abstract the fuel cell fc is accepted as the state of the art instrument for reducing co2 emissions in the field of power generation in korea therefore the korean government has planned to expand fc power generation from 565 gwh in 2013 to 13 449 gwh by 2027 this article aims to assess the public value or acceptability of this expansion in terms of reducing co2 emissions to this end we derive the public s additional willingness to pay wtp for the expansion using a contingent valuation survey of 1000 korean households for the purpose of mitigating the response effect in eliciting their wtp and increasing statistical efficiency in analyzing the wtp data we employ a one and one half bounded dichotomous choice question format furthermore we use the spike model so as to model zero wtp responses the mean additional monthly wtp for the expansion is computed to be krw 1407 usd 1 37 per household expanding the value to the national population gives us krw 310 5 billion usd 304 4 million per year we can conclude that korean households are ready to shoulder some of the financial burden of expanding fc power generation to reduce co2 emissions

a welfare theoretic model consistent with the practice of cost effectiveness analysis and its implications abstract i look at three debates in the health economics literature in the context of cost effectiveness analysis cea 1 inclusion of future costs 2 discounting and 3 consistency with a welfare economic perspective these debates thus far have been studied in isolation leading to confusion and lingering questions i look at these three debates holistically and present a welfare theoretic model that is consistent with the practice of cea and can help inform all of these three debates it shows rationales for the recommendations of the second panel and clarifies some nuanced implications for the practice of cea when taking a societal perspective in the context of distributional cea and multi sectorial budgets

discounting of life saving and other nonmonetary effects cost effectiveness analysts generally assume that preferences over time are such that streams of monetary and nonmonetary program effects can be reduced to one discounted sum of monetary costs and another of effects it is known that if the nonmonetary effects can be cashed out in a way that does not vary with time then the rates of discount for monetary and nonmonetary effects have to be equal this paper presents a more compelling argument for the equality of those rates when hard to monetize benefits such as life saving are involved it shows that if the ability to produce the nonmonetary effect does not diminish too quickly over time failure to discount benefits implies that programs are always improved by delay in general discounting benefits and costs at different rates can lead to peculiar results

the insurance value of medical innovation abstract economists think of medical innovation as a valuable but risky good producing health benefits but increasing financial risk for consumers and healthcare payers this perspective overlooks how innovation can lower physical risks borne by healthy patients facing the prospect of future disease we present an alternative framework that accounts for all these sources of value and links them to the value of healthcare insurance we show that any innovation worth buying reduces overall risk and generates positive insurance value on its own we conduct a stylized numerical exercise to assess the potential empirical significance of our insights our calculations suggest that conventional methods meaningfully understate the value of historical health gains and disproportionately undervalue treatments for the most severe illnesses where physical risk to consumers is the costliest these calculations also suggest that the value of physical insurance from new technologies may exceed the financial spending risk that they pose

optimal enlistment age a cost benefit analysis and some simulations abstract enlistment at the earliest viable age maximizes the country s wartime army size and thereby the country s attack deterrence capacity injuries and death generate a loss of quantity and quality of life that reduces the benefit from early age enlistment the benefit from any age of recruitment is also affected by the rise and decline of the individual s military performance and civilian productivity and by the changes in the individual s adjustment costs over his lifecycle the simulations of an optimization model incorporating these cost and benefit elements suggest that if the intensity of the rise and decline of the individual s military performance is sufficiently larger than the intensity of the rise and decline of his civilian productivity there exists an interior optimal enlistment age that is greater than the commonly practiced 18 in such a case most of the simulation results are closely scattered around 21 despite large parameter changes

using contingent valuation to explore willingness to pay for renewable energy a comparison of collective and voluntary payment vehicles abstract this study uses a split sample dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey of 1574 u s residents to explore willingness to pay wtp for renewable energy under collective and voluntary payment vehicles and under government and private provision of the good we also evaluate the impact of participation expectations on stated wtp we find some evidence that when confronted with a collective payment mechanism respondents state a somewhat higher wtp than when voluntary payment mechanisms are used similarly private provision of the good elicits a somewhat higher wtp than does government provision we also find that contingent valuation responses are strongly correlated with expectations for the wtp of others our results shed light on strategic response behavior and the incentive compatibility of different cv designs and offer practical insight into u s household preferences for how to support renewable energy

the winner s curse and bidder competition in acquisitions evidence from failed bank auctions this study examines the effect of bidder competition in acquisitions we use predictions from auction theory to test whether acquirers of failed banks overpay the winner s curse when bidding in fdic sealed bid purchase and assumption p a transactions auctions the empirical results indicate that winning bids tend to increase as the number of competitors increases as predicted by theory we also find that bid levels of all bidders increase with increased competition which is consistent with bidders failing to adjust for the winner s curse in a common value auction setting however additional tests using winning bids only are consistent with both a common value and a private values model so this result should be interpreted with caution the winner s curse hypothesis states that the winner of a sealed bid auction in which the value of the object being competed for is uncertain tends to be the one who most overestimates the true value of the auctioned object as a result auction winners who fail to recognize this possibility are likely to be cursed by having paid more for the object than its true worth this hypothesis has been applied to various situations including bidding on oil and gas leases capen et al 3 and corporate takeovers roll 16 varaiya 19 support for the existence of the winner s curse has been reported primarily from laboratory experiments bazerman and samuelson 1 kagel and levin 12 testing of the winner s curse hypothesis with market data is in its early stages gilley karels and leone s 7 study of bidding for oil leases provides mixed suport brannman klein and weiss 2 examine bidding behavior in a variety of auction markets and interpret some of their results as supporting the winner s curse hypothesis our study examines the effects of bidder competition and the winner s curse hypothesis within the context of fdic auctions of failed banks our study may also have relevance for the broader corporate control literature this literature uniformly indicates that shareholders of acquired firms earn large

trying to estimate a monetary value for the qaly in this paper we study the feasibility of estimating a monetary value for a qaly mvq using two different surveys of the spanish population total n 892 we consider whether willingness to pay wtp is approximately proportional to the health gains measured in qalys we also explore whether subjects responses are prone to any significant biases we find that the estimated mvq varies inversely with the magnitude of health gain we also find two other ir regularities the existence of ordering effects and insensitivity of wtp to the duration of the period of payment taken together these effects result in large variations in estimates of the mvq if we are ever to obtain consistent and stable estimates we should try to understand better the sources of variability found in the course of this study

plausible responsiveness to scope in contingent valuation plausible responsiveness to scope is a question of economic significance in addition to statistical significance of the scope test in contingent valuation we briefly review the history of the scope test in order to place the current issue in the context of the bp deepwater horizon oil spill as a result of the review we gain insights into how the issue of scope adequacy arose twenty years after it was first mentioned by the noaa panel on contingent valuation following the exxon valdez oil spill we then provide a review of desvousges mathews and train 2012 who promote the adding up test to identify inadequate responsiveness to scope adequacy the adding up test is a test of the construct validity of the contingent valuation method but is flawed as a measure of economic significance we propose scope elasticity of willingness to pay as a measure of economic significance a simulation suggests a likely range of elasticity estimates given linear and quadratic functional forms for the willingness to pay function in order to illustrate the ease of implementation of scope elasticity within the context of the standard scope test we calculate scope elasticity with willingness to pay estimates from several studies describe two studies that directly estimate scope elasticity and estimate scope elasticity with primary data from two studies all of these empirical estimates of scope elasticity fall within the range of scope elasticity suggested by the simulation scope elasticity provides a practical way forward relative to the adding up test on the issue of economic significance of scope effects

valuing non marketed goods the case of elk permit lotteries abstract permit allocation methods offer a way of estimating the value of non marketed elk hunting applicants compete for elk hunting permits in colorado by acquiring preference points that have a monetary cost and by distributing themselves among hunts until their marginal values are equalized we infer the marginal value of permits from the opportunity costs incurred to acquire these permits and use a hedonic regression analysis to estimate the impact of various hunt characteristics on permit value

fat tails and truncated bids in contingent valuation an application to an endangered shorebird species a yes response function in a contingent valuation study is said to have fat tails if it has a high and slowly declining yes response rate at high bid levels truncated bids refer to the practice of dropping high bid offers before a yes response rate of near zero is reached this is a common practice in contingent valuation we explore the extent and implications of fat tails and truncated bids in a study of an endangered shorebird species we find among other things that mean willingness to pay is quite sensitive to the highest bid offered so much so that the choice of highest bid nearly dictates outcomes

multiattribute utility theory without expected utility foundations methods for determining the form of utilities are needed for the implementation of utility theory in specific decisions an important step forward was achieved when utility theorists characterized useful parametric families of utilities and simplifying decompositions of multiattribute utilities the standard development of these results is based on expected utility theory which is now known to be descriptively invalid the empirical violations of expected utility impair the credibility of utility assessments this paper shows however that parametric and multiattribute utility results are robust against the major violations of expected utility they retain their validity under nonexpected utility theories that have been developed to account for actual choice behavior to be precise characterizations of parametric and multiattribute representations are extended to rank dependent utility state dependent utility choquet expected utility and prospect theory

the public s value for developing ocean energy technology in the republic of korea a contingent valuation study abstract ocean energy is a type of renewable energies and is considered as having a potential power of providing a substantial amount of energy although some forms of ocean energy are developed there is a need for further technological advances to better utilize ocean energy government should take observable actions to compensate for the costs of developing the technology this paper attempts to apply a contingent valuation cv method to obtaining at least a preliminary evaluation of the benefits that ensue from the development of the technology that commercializes ocean energy in the republic of korea overall the cv survey was successfully carried out to elicit the willingness to pay wtp for ocean energy the wtp was statistically significantly estimated from one and one half bounded spike model and the monthly mean wtp estimates was krw 1003 usd 0 9 per household the estimates of the annual benefits to relevant residents amounted to krw 206 4 billion usd 183 8 million

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

wtp and qaly based approaches to valuing health for policy common ground and disputed territory this paper discusses links between two approaches to the value of health the willingness to pay approach of environmental economics and the quality adjusted life year approach of health economics the approaches are used in cost benefit and cost effectiveness analyses of health interventions despite fundamental differences in the decision contexts and conceptual foundations of the two approaches in current practice they are likely to lead to similar policy decisions the paper also shows how research on the quality adjusted life year qaly can be used to fill in gaps in the willingness to pay literature the paper sketches a simple model that shows how to qaly fy the value of a statistical life i e how to combine qaly estimates with estimates of the value of a statistical life to estimate willingness to pay for morbidity risks

a general model of starting point bias in double bounded dichotomous contingent valuation surveys abstract this paper develops a general model that addresses the starting point bias in the dichotomous choice evaluation data by incorporating both the anchoring effect and yea saying bias the model is applied to a contingent valuation study that evaluated the health benefits of air quality improvement in three major metropolitan areas in taiwan the empirical evidence shows a strong anchoring effect but an insignificant yea saying bias the results show a serious understated willingness to pay if the biases in anchoring and yea saying are not controlled

on the possibility of a bridge between cba and cea comments on a paper by dolan and edlin in a recent work by dolan and edlin it is concluded that no link can be established between cost benefit analysis cba and cost effectiveness analysis cea however the conclusion seems to depend rather heavily on what is understood by a link between cba and cea as well as on the exact meaning of the latter two terms we argue that there is at least one approach to cba and cea in which the two are very intimately linked on the other hand the limitations in the access to preference information has consequences for the kind of questions that can be meaningfully addressed in both cba and cea

spike models in contingent valuation spike models allow for a nonzero probability of zero willingness to pay in referendum style contingent valuation experiments they include many of the often used models as special cases and allow various analyses that are not possible in standard applications in this paper the economic rationale for the spike models and their estimation techniques are discussed and empirical illustrations are provided one study suggests that mean willingness to pay is zero and both studies strongly suggest that median wtp is zero these results have some bearing on the continuing debate of the incentive properties of hypothetical surveys and the construction of scenarios in contingent valuation experiments

liaisons dangereuses increasing connectivity risk sharing and systemic risk the recent financial crisis poses the challenge to understand how systemic risk arises endogenously and what architecture can make the financial system more resilient to global crises this paper shows that a financial network can be most resilient for intermediate levels of risk diversification and not when this is maximal as generally thought so far this finding holds in the presence of the financial accelerator i e when negative variations in the financial robustness of an agent tend to persist in time because they have adverse effects on the agent s subsequent performance through the reaction of the agent s counterparties 2012 elsevier b v all rights reserved

protest response and willingness to pay for culturally significant urban trees implications for contingent valuation method the contingent valuation method cvm could assist green space planning management and appreciation by assigning a monetary value to urban trees however the use of cvm is limited by its inherent methodological weaknesses a critical concern is the existence of a large proportion of survey respondents providing zero willingness to pay wtp and that these responses are not amenable to economic theory known as protest responses censoring protest responses from further treatment is a common practice which warrants reconsideration in light of our cvm survey results the survey involved 800 residents requested to state their wtp for preserving the culturally significant stonewall trees in urban hong kong about 28 of respondents returned a zero wtp for all respondents the strength of protest beliefs was assessed and the relationship between protest beliefs and wtp were examined our analysis produced contradictory results some protest items varied negatively with wtp as expected but other items increased with it respondents stated positive wtp harbored latent protest beliefs which are related to non economic preference the findings stand at odds with the assumptions underlying the censoring treatment and raise questions about the validity of wtp estimates these methodological implications should be taken into account in using cvm

economic valuation of the environment how citizens make sense of contingent valuation questions this study adopts a qualitative approach in order to investigate how people make sense of contingent valuation cv questions of a global environmental amenity the objective is not only to capture people s motivations and considerations of willingness to pay wtp but also to determine if they adequately comprehend an economic valuation of such public goods the findings indicate that a large proportion of respondents do not interpret the valuation task as intended however this lack of understanding is not always expressed unless probed in relation to the elicitation question and some people have the tendency to provide monetary estimates anyway whatever meaning they attach to these

an adding up test on contingent valuations of river and lake quality for a contingent valuation cv study of a bundle of water quality improvements this paper tests whether the sum of the estimated willingness to pay wtp for each individual part of the package evaluated incrementally equals the estimated wtp for the entire bundle as implied by standard utility theory this is the first application of the adding up test using incremental parts and carson and groves s 2007 procedures to induce truthful respondents answers the test is failed which implies that either the cv method did not elicit truthful answers or that respondents true preferences are inconsistent with standard utility theory

systemic risk mitigation in financial networks abstract we propose a multi period clearing framework where the level of systemic risk is mitigated through the provision of liquidity assistance the interbank liability network evolves stochastically over time and assets of defaulted banks are sold to qualified banks within the network through a first price sealed bid auction we find that policies targeting systemically important banks are more effective in core periphery network structures whereas those maximizing the total liquidity in the system are preferred in random network configurations we assess sensitivity of systemic risk to variations in interbank liabilities as well as to their correlation structure

is it really possible to build a bridge between cost benefit analysis and cost effectiveness analysis cost benefit analysis cba is a recognised as the economic evaluation technique that accords most with the underlying principles of standard welfare economic theory however due to problems associated with the technique economists evaluating resources allocation decisions in health care have most often used cost effective analysis cea in which health benefits are expressed in non monetary units as a result attempts have been made to build a welfare economic bridge between cost benefit analysis cba and cost effectiveness analysis cea in this paper we develops these attempts and finds that while assumptions can be made to facilitate a constant willingness to pay per unit of health outcome these restrictions are highly unrealistic we develop an impossibility theorem that shows it is not possible to link cba and cea if i the axioms of expected utility theory hold ii the quality adjusted life year qaly model is valid in a welfare economic sense and iii illness affects the ability to enjoy consumption we conclude that within a welfare economic framework it would be unwise to rely on a link between cba and cea in economic evaluations

on what basis should health be discounted the discount rate to be applied in health care programmes should be based on the time preference rate for health and this same rate should be applied to costs as well due to the limited tradeability of health when eliciting its time preference rate the intertemporal choices must be framed in such a way as to resemble as closely as possible those facing health planners and decision makers

life cycle preferences over consumption and health when is cost effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost benefit analysis this paper studies life cycle preferences over consumption and health status we show that cost effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost benefit analysis if the lifetime utility function is additive over time multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status and if the utility of consumption is constant over time we derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form both under expected utility theory and under rank dependent utility theory which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory if cost effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost benefit analysis it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality adjusted life years qalys the willingness to pay for qalys depends on wealth remaining life expectancy health status and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption

contingent valuation of community forestry programs in ethiopia controlling for preference anomalies in double bounded cvm this study examines the welfare effects of community plantations in ethiopia via contingent valuation both single bounded and double bounded survey methods were considered and with respect to double bounded methods the potential for anomalous response behaviour was also taken into account the results generally confirm that there are statistically significant welfare benefits to be derived from community forestry however the range of the estimated benefits is large after controlling for anomalous response behaviour the range of estimated benefits narrows and our preferred estimates place the welfare gain between ethiopian birr etb 20 14 and 30 41 per household which is much lower than the estimated benefits without controlling for anomalous preference responses

systemic risk in the netting system abstract in interbank clearing networks a bank experiencing sudden liquidity or solvency problems may prevent settlement of the claims of its direct creditors which may in turn jeopardize settlement of other institutions the paper presents an empirical assessment of the potential size of this domino effect in the italian netting system a participant s settlement failure is simulated and the impact on the rest of the system measured on average only about 4 percent of participants were large enough to trigger systemic crises less than 1 percent defaulted due to systemic reasons the average monetary loss was less than 3 percent of the daily flow of funds through the clearing system similar simulations by other authors for the u s system yielded a much larger impact of systemic risk we argue that the difference is mainly due to the much smaller volume of funds flowing through the italian system and to structural differences

decoy effects in choice experiments and contingent valuation asymmetric dominance while a dominated choice involves a situation in which one option clearly dominates another on all relevant dimensions an asymmetrically dominated choice typically arises where at least two options do not dominate each other and one but not both of those options does dominate a third option we demonstrate that the introduction of such an asymmetrically dominated option can have a significant impact upon choices between non dominated options within the same choice set for non market goods furthermore we show that this effect can then translate into significant impacts upon subsequent valuations for those non dominated options

accounting for future costs in medical cost effectiveness analysis most medical cost effectiveness analyses include future costs only for related illnesses but this approach is controversial this paper demonstrates that cost effectiveness analysis is consistent with lifetime utility maximization only if it includes all future medical and non medical expenditures estimates of the magnitude of these future costs suggest that they may substantially alter both the absolute and relative cost effectiveness of medical interventions particularly when an intervention increases length of life more than quality of life in older populations current methods overstate the cost effectiveness of interventions which extend life compared to interventions which improve the quality of life

efficient estimation methods for closed ended contingent valuation surveys closed ended contingent valuation surveys can be very useful in the evaluation of nonmarket resources respondents merely state whether they would accept or reject a hypothetical threshold amount either as payment for giving up access to the resource or as a fee for its use the authors develop a maximum likelihood procedure which exploits the variation in the threshold values to allow direct and separate point estimates of regression like slope coefficients and error standard deviations without truncation bias their illustration uses data from a survey of recreational fisherman to examine factors which influence individuals willingness to pay copyright 1987 by mit press

estimating the demand curve for sustainable use of pesticides from contingent valuation data abstract stated preference valuation techniques are often used to assess consumers willingness to pay for food items produced in farming systems that adopt a sustainable use of pesticides sup we propose an innovative valuation methodology in which dichotomous choice contingent valuation is used to estimate the demand curve price quantity relationship for such food items where price means price premium for the sup output quantity is the probability of choosing sup and the conventional food product is kept available in the market at the current market price this methodology can be used to evaluate market differentiation as a policy option to promote the sup the methodology is tested with data from a sample of urban consumers of fruits and vegetables in portugal the estimated demand curve is used to define the price level maximizing the total premium revenue for the sup sector as a whole this optimal level of the price premium is 77 55 or 163 of the value of the monthly basket of fruits and vegetables at current prices adopting the optimal price premium will decrease the number of consumers of sup food by 54 the reduction is even higher for low income consumers 80 leaving them more exposed to the risks of pesticide use

contingent valuation and social choice the contingent valuation method for estimating the existence value of natural resources is examined for psychophysical robustness statistical reliability and economic sensibility extensions of standard models for willingness to pay and suitable econometric techniques for analyzing these models are developed the analysis is applied to a series of experiments on the value of preserving wilderness areas in the western united states the results call into question the reliability of the cv method for estimating existence values

the utility of health and wealth abstract tradeoffs between health and wealth are among the most important decisions individuals make and are central to social and economic policy yet only a few studies have investigated the utility of health and wealth empirically this paper investigates this utility function both theoretically and empirically we conduct detailed personal interviews with 180 cancer patients and also obtain questionnaires from 132 diabetes patients we find strong support for the utility function u h w h log w where h denotes health and w denotes wealth

economic evaluation of health care programmes is cea better than cba it has been noted earlier that during the same period that the contingent valuation cv method evolved and became the most commonly used method of valuing environmental projects the development in health economics was instead been towards cost effectiveness analysis cea recently there has been a growing interest in the use of cea where qalys quality adjusted life years are used as a measure of effectiveness as the method of evaluation for environmental projects the purpose of this paper is to answer the question is cea a superior method to cba both theoretically and empirically to provide information to decision makers for use in decisions on resource allocation in health the paper deals with the following topics the underlying theoretical foundation for cea is cea free of income distribution considerations is qaly a superior measure to wtp the usefulness of incremental ce ratio icer to determine resource allocation the paper concludes that there is neither theoretical nor practical support for the claim about the superiority of cea

keeping up appearances motivations for socially desirable responding in contingent valuation interviews abstract the tendency to give socially desirable rather than true statements of willingness to pay wtp is an often reported form of bias in contingent valuation surveys while previous research on this bias has exclusively focused on the detection of mode effects the present study directly assesses a respondent s motivation to state wtp in a socially desirable manner this study tests the effect of three theoretical motivations for socially desirable responding on wtp responses a general need for social approval a perceived social norm calling for a high contribution and perceived lack of anonymity of the interview situation questions for the empirical assessment of these factors are developed results of a valuation study in southwest china show differing and independent impacts of these factors while there is no effect of perceived anonymity need for social approval biases wtp responses upwards but does not influence the general decision to state a positive wtp it also turns out that rather the fear of losing social status than the striving for higher social approval is the main driver of this bias respondents perceiving a social norm for high wtp are more likely to state a positive wtp but the specific amount is not affected

too interconnected to fail financial network of us cds market topological fragility and systemic risk a small segment of credit default swaps cds on residential mortgage backed securities rmbs stand implicated in the 2007 financial crisis the dominance of a few big players in the chains of insurance and reinsurance for cds credit risk mitigation for banks assets has led to the idea of too interconnected to fail titf resulting as in the case of aig of a tax payer bailout we provide an empirical reconstruction of the us cds network based on the fdic call reports for off balance sheet bank data for the 4th quarter in 2007 and 2008 the propagation of financial contagion in networks with dense clustering which reflects high concentration or localization of exposures between few participants will be identified as one that is titf those that dominate in terms of network centrality and connectivity are called super spreaders management of systemic risk from bank failure in uncorrelated random networks is different to those with clustering as systemic risk of highly connected financial firms in the cds or any other financial markets is not priced into their holding of capital and collateral we design a super spreader tax based on eigenvector centrality of the banks which can mitigate potential socialized losses

the normative economics of health care finance and provision whereas in many countries the crisis in medical care has been seen in terms of excess spending on health services in the uk it has been seen at least by most of those who manage and work in the nhs as a crisis of underfunding this has come about as the result of the government s successful attempts to restrain the rate of growth of real spending on the nhs which in turn reflects the government s belief that its principal effective weapon against what it perceives to be inefficiency in the nhs is to challenge management itself reformed and to some extent liberated by systematic financial squeezes the same concern has given rise to a host of proposals for reform of the nhs most of which involve a much greater role for private insurance private finance of other kinds such as out of pocket payments and private provision of health care itself

measurement of health state utilities for economic appraisal health status measurement for use in economic appraisal of health care programmes is reviewed in this paper with particular emphasis on utility measurement a framework for economic appraisal is presented displaying the various components that must be measured and showing how the three forms of analysis cost effectiveness analysis cost benefit analysis and cost utility analysis relate to the framework and to each other one of the components in the framework is health status it can be measured using ad hoc numeric scales willingness to pay receive or health state utilities the determination of health state utilities is reviewed covering the following issues alternative sources of utilities health state descriptions multi attribute utility approach determination of appropriate subjects utility aggregation and accuracy three measurement techniques for health state utilities are described in detail rating scale standard gamble and time trade off the use of these methods is described for both chronic and temporary health states and for both health states considered better than death and those considered worse than death

qalys standard gambles and the expected budget constraint this paper shows that when quality adjustment factors for use in constructing qaly indices are established through answers to standard gamble questions or similar methods the assumptions that are made by respondents about the financial consequences of changing probabilities of illness and death are critically important for the use of qalys in cost utility analysis cua it qualifies meltzer s journal of health economics 16 1997 33 result that the cost per quality adjusted life year qaly for life saving medical interventions should include the future consumption of those who would otherwise not have survived by showing that its validity depends on how the qaly index has been established the paper also shows that contrary to a widely held notion allocation of a fixed health care budget through cua does not generally result in a second best efficient allocation another finding is that failure to specify carefully what respondents to standard gamble questions are supposed to assume about the financial consequences of ill health may result in a bias against providing care to older individuals

train travel passengers willingness to pay to offset their co2 emissions in korea abstract due to the upsurge in concerns regarding climate change the carbon market has been growing more rapidly than ever recently a more innovative and experimental voluntary carbon market has been playing a supplementary role to the compliance market which is lacking in flexibility and diversity and has been accounting for an increasingly larger portion of the carbon market among the efforts to accumulate data and develop appropriate policies for the voluntary carbon market it is necessary to analyze the benefits of carbon offsets for ghg emissions from railways this study attempts to apply contingent valuation cv to measure the public s willingness to pay wtp for voluntary carbon offsets vcos from railway travel in korea furthermore in order to enhance the statistical efficiency of the wtp estimation and reduce the response effect in the context of wtp elicitation this study employs a one and one half bound dichotomous choice format the estimate of the mean wtp for a vco program for a specific travel distance is estimated to be krw 1 345 usd 1 24 per person this quantitative information can be utilized to develop policies related to mitigating climate change

willingness to pay for green electricity in korea a contingent valuation study abstract green electricity is energy that is generated from renewable energy sources such as solar power wind power small scale hydroelectric power tidal power and biomass power these sources mostly do not produce pollutants and are considered environmentally friendly however considering the current state of technology they are more costly government should take visible actions to compensate for the increased production costs this paper attempts to apply a contingent valuation cv method to obtain at least a preliminary evaluation of the benefits that ensue from the introduction of the policy that raises the percentage of green electricity consumption from 0 2 of the total electricity supply to 7 by 2011 overall the cv survey was successful in eliciting the willingness to pay wtp for green electricity considering that the cv method operated within respondents abilities to answer and the wtp estimates were statistically significant the monthly mean wtp estimates from parametric and non parametric methods were krw 1681 usd 1 8 and krw 2072 usd 2 2 respectively the estimates of the annual benefits to relevant residents amounted to krw 150 5 billion usd 157 5 million and krw 185 6 billion usd 194 2 million respectively

biases from omitted risk effects in standard gamble utilities utilities elicited under the probability equivalence version of the standard gamble procedure systematically exaggerate the utility increments of expensive health interventions that bring the recipient towards full health switching to the alternative certainty equivalence version would introduce the reverse bias the biases arise from anticipated pre and post decision risk effects that expected utility theory omits to include these risk effects partition the future by changes in knowledge into 1 pre choice periods 2 the pre outcome future before the chosen act s outcome becomes known and 3 the more distant post outcome future when that outcome will have become known

qalys versus hyes what s right and what s wrong a review of the controversy abstract the paper uses an axiomatic approach to the description of individual preferences for health status sequences to resolve the major issues at stake in the recent controversy over qalys versus hyes while the hye accounts for an individual s time preference for health qaly scores based on the time trade off method will generally differ from the number of hyes hyes do not represent preferences for health under risk unless the utility function for reference flows of health is linear collapsing the two step hye assessment procedure into a single step entails a loss of information as regards the utility of a health status sequence although the procedure does represent preferences for health it fails to supply a description in terms of hyes in the case of risk as a remedy a modified hye approach is proposed

failure and rescue in an interbank network this paper is concerned with systemic risk in an interbank market modelled as a directed graph of interbank obligations this builds on the modelling paradigm of eisenberg and noe eisenberg l noe th 2001 systemic risk in financial systems management sci 472 236 249 by introducing costs of default if loans have to be called in by a failing bank this immediately introduces novel and realistic effects we find that in general many different clearing vectors can arise among which there is a greatest clearing vector arrived at by letting banks fail in succession until only solvent banks remain such a collapse should be prevented if at all possible we then study situations in which consortia of banks may have the means and incentives to rescue failing banks this again departs from the conclusions of the earlier work of eisenberg and noe where in the absence of default losses there would be no incentive for solvent banks to rescue failing banks we conclude with some remarks about how a rescue consortium might be constructed this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

your money or your life a prescriptive model for health safety and consumption decisions in this paper we develop a conceptual framework and model for valuing risks to an individual s health and life and to support decision making about investments in health quality of life and safety our treatment of health risks in the model builds on the popular quality adjusted life year qaly framework that balances health quality and length of life issues we extend this framework to consider financial concerns as well as health quality and length of life our model considers uncertainty in income and health and incorporates the decision maker s ability to adjust consumption over time in response to changes in expectations about health and income we use this model to study the optimal tradeoffs between financial gains or losses and improvements or reductions in health or longevity and apply it in two example medical decision problems

capabilities as menus a non welfarist basis for qaly evaluation quality adjusted life years qalys are the most widely used measure of health in economic evaluations of health care within a welfarist framework qalys are consistent with people s preferences under stringent assumptions several authors have argued that qalys are a valid measure of health within an extra welfarist framework this paper studies the applicability of qalys within the best known extra welfarist framework sen s capability approach we propose a procedure to value capability sets and provide a foundation for qalys within sen s capability approach we show that under appropriate conditions the ranking of capabilities can be represented locally by a qaly measure and that a willingness to pay for qalys can be defined the validity of qalys as a general measure of health requires the same stringent conditions as in a welfarist framework

is there a meaningful definition of the value of a statistical life a definition of the value of a statistical life is derived this definition has a meaningful interpretation in terms of the monetary value of expected present value utility if consumption is age independent in all other cases empirical estimates of the value of a statistical life are biased estimators of the monetary counterpart to expected present value utility