dynamic adverse selection a theory of illiquidity fire sales and flight to quality we develop a dynamic equilibrium model of asset markets with adverse selection there exists a unique equilibrium in which better quality assets trade at higher prices but with a lower price dividend ratio in less liquid markets sellers of high quality assets signal quality by accepting a lower trading probability we show how the distribution of sellers private information affects an asset s price and liquidity how a change in that distribution can cause a re sale and a ight to quality and how asset purchase and subsidy programs may raise prices and liquidity and reverse the ight to quality jel d82 g12 this paper develops a dynamic equilibrium model of asset markets with adverse selection the owners of heterogeneous assets are privately informed about the quality of their assets sellers set prices for their assets recognizing that sales may be rationed at high prices buyers set prices recognizing that the quality of available assets may depend on the price selected in equilibrium sellers of high quality assets are willing to set a high price despite the low sale probability because the continuation value from failing to sell a high quality asset is high conversely sellers of low quality assets opt for a low price buyers are indifferent between paying a low price for a low quality asset and a high price for a high quality asset we prove these results in a deliberately stylized dynamic general equilibrium framework assets are perfectly durable and pay a constant dividend each period some amount of a perfectly perishable consumption good better quality assets pay a higher dividend but only the asset s current owner observes the dividend this is the source of private information and the root of the adverse selection problem as in akerlof 1970 the only permissible trades are between the consumption good and the asset individuals are risk neutral and have a discount factor that changes over time independently across individuals creating gains from trade finally discount factors are observable which ensures that patient individuals never sell assets since there are no gains from trade we believe this framework is useful for capturing

ethnicity neighborhoods and human capital externalities the socioeconomic performance of today s workers depends not only on parental skills but also on the average skills of the ethnic group in the parents generation or ethnic capital this paper investigates the link between the ethnic externality and ethnic neighborhoods the evidence indicates that residential segregation and the external effect of ethnicity are linked partly because ethnic capital summarizes the socioeconomic background of the neighborhood where the children were raised ethnicity has an external effect even among persons who grow up in the same neighborhood when children are exposed frequently to persons who share the same ethnic background copyright 1995 by american economic association

house prices and birth rates the impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby abstract this project investigates how changes in metropolitan statistical area msa level house prices affect household fertility decisions recognizing that housing is a major cost associated with child rearing and assuming that children are normal goods we hypothesize that an increase in house prices will have a negative price effect on current period fertility this applies to both potential first time homeowners and current homeowners who might upgrade to a bigger house with the addition of a child on the other hand for current homeowners an increase in msa level house prices will increase home equity leading to a positive effect on birth rates our results suggest that indeed short term increases in house prices lead to a decline in births among non owners and a net increase among owners the estimates imply that a 10 000 increase leads to a 5 increase in fertility rates among owners and a 2 4 decrease among non owners at the mean u s home ownership rate these estimates imply that the net effect of a 10 000 increase in house prices is a 0 8 increase in current period fertility rates given underlying differences in home ownership rates the predicted net effect of house price changes varies across demographic groups in addition we find that changes in house prices exert a larger effect on current period birth rates than do changes in unemployment rates

the economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty an asset based approach abstract longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty while a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty this paper develops an asset based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep rooted persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long term persistent structural poverty as well as relevant extensions of the popular foster greer thorbecke class of poverty measures the paper closes with reflections on how asset based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies

typology for flight to quality episodes and downside risk measurement abstractwe propose a total return based framework to measure downside risk associated with phenomenon of capital outflows from riskier to safer financial markets the proposed method consists of three elements i the general definition of the flight to quality ftq phenomenon ii the typological classification of the flight to quality occurrences for associating them with the phases of the business cycle and iii the automated technique to diagnose the time frames and to measure the impact of flight to quality on financial instruments the proposed framework is applied to analyse the global scale capital inflows outflows from emerging markets public debt to the us treasuries and vice versa the results show that different phases of business cycles and gdp growth rates including turning points could be associated with flights to quality of different types and causality origins addressing downside risk crystallizations in flight to quality occurrences new perspectives of integrated interest rate r

financial crises and the multilateral response what the historical record shows abstract we provide a synoptic description of financial crises and the multilateral response over the course of the last four decades we present both indicators of economic performance around crisis dates and a comprehensive description of multilateral rescue efforts while emergency lending has grown reliance on debt restructuring broadly speaking has declined this leads us to ask what can be done to rebalance the management of debt problems toward a better mix of emergency lending and private sector burden sharing in particular we explore the idea of sovereign cocos contingent debt securities that automatically reduce payment obligations in the event of debt sustainability problems

are there dynamic gains from a poor area development program poor area development programs in which the government transfers extra resources to unusually poor areas have been widely used to fight poverty there has been some research on such programs but little is known about their impact on household living standards over time the authors address the issue for a sizable poor area development program in rural china china s program had a significant impact on rural living standards in the targeted areas of the sample the consumption growth model suggests that households living in the targeted areas had a higher rate of consumption growth than one would have otherwise expected nonetheless the authors found that while the gains in growth were enough to prevent an absolute decline in average living standards they were not enough to reverse the strong underlying divergent tendencies in the rural economy

welfare dynamics in rural kenya and madagascar this paper presents comparative qualitative and quantitative evidence from rural kenya and madagascar in an attempt to untangle the causality behind persistent poverty we find striking differences in welfare dynamics depending on whether one uses total income including stochastic terms and inevitable measurement error or the predictable structural component of income based on a household s asset holdings our results suggest the existence of multiple dynamic asset and structural income equilibria consistent with the poverty traps hypothesis furthermore we find supporting evidence of locally increasing returns to assets and of risk management behaviour consistent with poor households defence of a critical asset threshold through asset smoothing

house prices and marital stability we investigate the effect of house price changes on divorce using data for 1991 2010 from the current population survey and the federal housing finance agency our findings suggest that changing house prices significantly affect the share of a cohort that is divorced and that these effects are asymmetric with respect to housing gains versus losses in addition we find differential effects for groups that are more likely to be homeowners versus renters some of this evidence is consistent with homeowners being locked into their homes and hence marriages by increased transactions costs in down markets

subsidising inequality economic reforms fiscal transfers and convergence across chinese provinces the article investigates per capita income convergence across chinese provinces over the 1978 92 period it confirms previous studies which find a reduction in inter regional income inequality over the course of economic reforms however the rate of convergence has declined since 1985 as a result of two factors first the shift from rural to industrial reforms has disproportionately benefited the relatively wealthier coastal provinces second the system of inter provincial fiscal transfers has prevented convergence among interior provinces as transfers have gone to the richer among them further fiscal decentralisation and an acceleration of reforms in the interior provinces is thus unlikely to increase regional income inequality

do family wealth shocks affect fertility choices evidence from the housing market abstract this paper uses wealth changes driven by housing market variation to estimate the effect of family resources on fertility decisions using data from the panel study of income dynamics we show that a 100 000 increase in housing wealth among home owners causes a 16 to 18 increase in the probability of having a child there is no evidence of an effect of msa level housing price growth on the fertility of renters however we also present evidence that housing wealth growth increases total fertility and that the responsiveness of fertility to housing wealth has increased over time commensurate with the recent housing boom

waking up from the american dream on the experience of young americans during the housing boom of the 2000s we exploit regional variations in house price fluctuations in the united states during the early to mid 2000s to study the impact of the housing boom on young americans choices related to home ownership household formation and fertility we also introduce a novel instrument for changes in house prices based on the predetermined industrial structure of the local economy we find that in regions that experienced large increases in house prices between 2001 and 2006 the youngest households were substantially less likely to purchase residential property to be married and to have a child both in 2006 and in 2011

growth divergence due to spatial externalities abstract on using household level panel data to unpack a regional growth regression for rural china we find that aggregate divergence at the regional level is entirely due to external effects of community wealth at the household level

an economic capital model integrating credit and interest rate risk in the banking book banks often measure credit and interest rate risk in the banking book separately and then add the risk measures to determine economic capital this approach misses complex interactions between the two risk types we develop a framework where these risks are analysed jointly since banking book positions are generally not marked to market our model is based on book value accounting our simulations show that interactions matter and that ignoring them leads to risk overstatement the magnitude of the errors depends on the structure of the balance sheet and on the repricing characteristics of assets and liabilities

evaluating china s poverty alleviation program a regression discontinuity approach abstract this paper evaluates the impact of the 8 7 plan the second wave of china s poverty alleviation program on rural income growth at the county level over the program s disbursement period from 1994 to 2000 program participation was largely determined by whether a county s pre program income fell below a given poverty line hence a regression discontinuity approach is employed to estimate the causal effects of the program using a panel data set we find that the 8 7 plan resulted in an approximately 38 percent increase in rural income for counties that were treated between 1994 and 2000 our empirical results also suggest the important role of initial endowments in the path toward economic development

spillovers stratification and inequality this paper surveys some recent work which seeks to model persistent income inequality and explain such phenomena as ghetto formation and poverty traps the paper illustrates how a number of these models possess a common structure in which local spillover effects interact with income based stratification of neighborhoods to transmit parental economic status from generation to generation as such these models represent an extension of the macroeconomic literature on spillovers and coordination failures to economic environments which endogenize the interaction environments of individual agents the theoretical and empirical justifications of these spillover and stratification effects are discussed finally some empirical implications of these models are analyzed

regional poverty targeting in china we evaluate the effectiveness of regional targeting in china s large scale poverty alleviation program begun in 1986 by analyzing a panel data set of all counties in china for the period 1981 1995 estimates of models of poor county designation and poverty fund allocation and newly defined targeting gap and targeting error measures show that political factors have affected targeting and that leakage has increased while coverage has improved only one of the three main programs is progressive growth model estimates find that poor county designation increased incomes per capita by 2 28 per year during 1985 1992 and 0 91 during 1992 1995 these results are relatively robust to redefining control groups using propensity score matching methods

financial integration housing and economic volatility abstract the great recession illustrates the sensitivity of the economy to housing this paper shows that financial integration fostered by securitization and nationwide branching amplified the positive effect of housing price shocks on the economy during the 1994 2006 period we exploit variation in credit supply subsidies across local markets from government sponsored enterprises to measure housing price changes unrelated to fundamentals using this instrument we find that house price shocks spur economic growth the effect is larger in localities more financially integrated through both secondary loan market and bank branch networks financial integration thus raised the effect of collateral shocks on local economies increasing economic volatility

does aggregation hide the harmful effects of inequality on growth abstract aggregation can severely bias conventional tests of whether inequality impedes growth a micro growth model estimated on farm household data for rural china indicates that asset inequality in the area of residence has a harmful external effect on consumption growth the effect is lost in a regional growth regression

is transient poverty different evidence for rural china we define transient poverty as the component of time mean consumption poverty at household level that is directly attributable to variability in consumption this can be thought of as a measure of vulnerability to falling consumption the non transient component then depends solely on mean consumption over time and we call this chronic poverty using robust semi parametric methods and household panel data for rural china we test whether transient poverty is determined by a process that is similar to chronic poverty commonly identified causes of poverty in this setting have weak explanatory power for transient poverty and some of the factors determining transient poverty do not matter to chronic poverty or even have the opposite effect successful policy responses to chronic poverty may still leave considerable transient poverty

credit booms and lending standards evidence from the subprime mortgage market this paper links the u s subprime mortgage crisis to demand side factors that contributed to the rapid expansion of the u s mortgage market we show that denial rates were relatively lower in areas that experienced faster credit demand growth and that lenders in these high growth areas attached less weight to applicants loan to income ratios the results are robust to controlling for supply side factors including house price appreciation mortgage securitization and other economic fundamentals and to several robustness tests controlling for endogeneity the results are consistent with the notion that a relaxation of lending standards triggered by an increased demand for loans contributed to the boom and the ensuing crisis together with other supply side explanations these findings shed new light on the relationship between credit booms and financial instability

the intersection of market and credit risk abstract economic theory tells us that market and credit risks are intrinsically related to each other and not separable we describe the two main approaches to pricing credit risky instruments the structural approach and the reduced form approach it is argued that the standard approaches to credit risk management creditmetrics creditrisk and kmv are of limited value when applied to portfolios of interest rate sensitive instruments and in measuring market and credit risk empirically returns on high yield bonds have a higher correlation with equity index returns and a lower correlation with treasury bond index returns than do low yield bonds also macro economic variables appear to influence the aggregate rate of business failures the creditmetrics creditrisk and kmv methodologies cannot reproduce these empirical observations given their constant interest rate assumption however we can incorporate these empirical observations into the reduced form of jarrow and turnbull 1995b drawing the analogy risk 5 63 70 model here default probabilities are correlated due to their dependence on common economic factors default risk and recovery rate uncertainty may not be the sole determinants of the credit spread we show how to incorporate a convenience yield as one of the determinants of the credit spread for credit risk management the time horizon is typically one year or longer this has two important implications since the standard approximations do not apply over a one year horizon first we must use pricing models for risk management some practitioners have taken a different approach than academics in the pricing of credit risky bonds in the event of default a bond holder is legally entitled to accrued interest plus principal we discuss the implications of this fact for pricing second it is necessary to keep track of two probability measures the martingale probability for pricing and the natural probability for value at risk we discuss the benefits of keeping track of these two measures

geographic poverty traps a micro model of consumption growth in rural china how important are neighbourhood endowments of physical and human capital in explaining diverging fortunes over time for otherwise identical households in a developing rural economy to answer this question we develop an estimable micro model of consumption growth allowing for constraints on factor mobility and externalities whereby geographic capital can influence the productivity of a household s own capital our statistical test has considerable power in detecting geographic effects given that we control for latent heterogeneity in measured consumption growth rates at the micro level we find robust evidence of geographic poverty traps in farm household panel data from post reform rural china our results strengthen the equity and efficiency case for public investment in lagging poor areas in this setting copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

a lost generation education decisions and employment outcomes during the us housing boom bust cycle of the 2000s abstract we exploit regional variations in u s house price fluctuations during the boom bust cycle of the 2000s to study the impact of the housing cycle on young americans choices related to education and employment we find that in msas which experienced large increases in house prices between 2001 and 2006 young adults were substantially more likely to forego a higher education and join the workforce lowering skill formation during the bust years the young especially those without higher education were more likely to be unemployed in areas which experienced higher declines in house prices

poverty targeting resource degradation and heterogeneous endowments a micro simulation analysis of a less favored ethiopian village persistent and widespread poverty in less favored areas lfas is attributed to fragile natural resources and poor markets limited assets may keep households outside the reach of poverty policies targeted at lfas we explored in a stylized manner the role of heterogeneous household assets for 1 policies aimed at poverty reduction 2 within village income inequality and 3 soil erosion with a farm household micro simulation model we analyzed for each household in a remote ethiopian village three sets of policies technology improvement infrastructure investment and off farm employment through migration or cash for work cfw programs combating poverty with a single policy migratory off farm employment reduces the poverty headcount most because of self selection cfw programs performed best in terms of reaching the poorest of the poor cfw also reduced within village income inequality most while a price band reduction increased income inequality only technology improvements resulted in a trade off between poverty and soil erosion price band and off farm employment policies reduced erosion while outperforming technology improvements in terms of poverty reduction we found that combining two policies was most helpful in assisting poorer households to overcome the limitations of their asset endowments a cfw program combined with reduced price bands yielded most in terms of poverty reduction and income inequality this policy complementarity is however less important for better endowed households reducing the reliance of households on agriculture offered a win win situation of reducing poverty and maintaining natural resources combining policies helped to overcome asset limitations to target policies to the poorest households and to reduce income inequalities

are there lasting impacts of aid to poor areas abstract the paper re visits the site of a large world bank financed rural development program in china 10 years after it began and four years after disbursements ended the program emphasized community participation in multi sectoral interventions including farming animal husbandry infrastructure and social services data were collected on 2000 households in project and non project areas spanning 10 years a double difference estimator of the program s impact on top of pre existing governmental programs reveals sizeable short term income gains that were mostly saved only small and statistically insignificant gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer term though in rough accord with the average gain to permanent income the use of community based beneficiary selection greatly reduced the overall impact given that the educated poor were under covered the main results are robust to corrections for various sources of selection bias including village targeting and interference due to spillover effects generated by the response of local governments to the external aid

stock and bond market liquidity a long run empirical analysis this paper establishes liquidity linkage between stock and treasury bond markets there is a lead lag relationship between illiquidity of the two markets and bidirectional granger causality the effect of stock illiquidity on bond illiquidity is consistent with flight toquality or flight to liquidity episodes monetary policy impacts illiquidity the evidence indicates that bond illiquidity acts as a channel through which monetary policy shocks are transferred into the stock market these effects are observed across illiquidity of bonds of different maturities and are especially pronounced for illiquidity of short term maturities the paper provides evidence of illiquidity integration between stock and bond markets