learning your earning are labor income shocks really very persistent in this paper we examine the risk situation facing individuals in the labor market the current consensus in the literature is that the labor income process has a large random walk component we argue two points first the estimates of persistence from income data appear to be upward biased due to the omission of heterogeneity in income pro les across the population that would be implied for example by a human capital model with heterogeneity when we allow for dierences in pro les the estimated persistence falls from 0 99 to about 0 8 moreover the main evidence against pro le heterogeneity in the existing literature that the autocorrelations of income changes are small and typically negative is also replicated by the pro le heterogeneity model we estimate casting doubt on the previous interpretation of this evidence second we embed this process in a life cycle model to examine how it alters individuals consumption saving decision we assume that as seems plausible individuals do not know their pro les exactly at the beginning of life but learn in a bayesian way with successive income observations we nd that learning is very slow and aects consumption decision throughout the life cycle the model generates substantial rise in consumption inequality over the life cycle which matches empirical observations deaton and paxson 1994 moreover the shape of the age inequality pro le is non concave as in the data but unlike in a model with very persistent shocks finally the consumption pro les of college graduates are steeper than those of high school graduates in the model consistent with the data because they face a wider dispersion of and hence uncertainty about income growth rates overall this evidence indicates that income shocks may be signi cantly less persistent than what is currently assumed

assessing the equalizing force of mobility using short panels france 1990 2000 in this paper we document whether and how much the equalizing force of earnings mobility has changed in france in the 1990 s for this purpose we use a representative three year panel the french labour force survey we develop a model of earnings dynamics that combines a flexible specification of marginal earnings distributions to fit the large cross sectional dimension of the data with a tight parametric representation of the dynamics adapted to the short time series dimension log earnings are modelled as the sum of a deterministic component an individual fixed effect and a transitory component which is assumed first order markov the transition probability of the transitory component is modelled as a one parameter plackett copula we estimate this model using a sequential expectation maximization algorithm we exploit the estimated model to study employment earnings inequality in france over the 1990 2002 period we show that in phase with business cycle fluctuations a recession in 1993 and two peaks in 1990 and 2000 earnings mobility decreases when cross section inequality and unemployment risk increase we simulate individual earnings trajectories and compute present values of lifetime earnings for various horizons inequality presents a hump shaped evolution over the period with a 9 increase between 1990 and 1995 and a decrease afterwards accounting for unemployment yields an increase of 11 moreover this increase is persistent as it translates into a 12 increase in the variance of log present values the ratio of inequality in present values to inequality in one year earnings a natural measure of immobility or of the persistence of inequality remains remarkably constant over the business cycle

on cross border bank credit and the u s financial crisis transmission to equity markets this paper examines the role played by cross border equity bond and bank credit flows versus international trade in the transmission of the u s financial crisis to equity markets worldwide we estimate vector autoregressive models with exogenous global factors using monthly data on 36 emerging and developed countries the results from an eclectic methodology that includes causality tests generalized impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions indicate that the crisis is mostly transmitted through bank credit rather than portfolio flows and international trade the results are robust to altering the exogenous versus endogenous vectors of variables to measuring equity prices in u s dollars or local currency to averaging the data across countries versus averaging the parameters from individual country estimation and to redefining the start date of the crisis the findings endorse the use of banking regulation and capital controls as part of the policy toolkit to limit financial vulnerability

transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the emu stock prices cds spreads and exchange rates abstract this paper tests for the transmission of the 2007 2010 financial and sovereign debt crises to fifteen emu countries we use daily data from 2003 to 2010 on country financial and non financial stock market indexes to analyze the stock market returns for three country groups within emu north south and small the following results hold for both the north and south european countries while the smallest countries seem to be relatively isolated from international events first we find strong evidence of crisis transmission to european non financials from us non financials but not for financials second in order to test how the sovereign debt crisis affects stock market developments we split the crisis in pre and post lehman sub periods results show that financials become significantly more dependent on changes in the difference between the greek and german cds spreads after lehman s collapse compared to the pre lehman sub period however this increase is much smaller for non financials third before the crisis euro appreciations coincide with european stock market decreases whereas this relationship reverses during the crisis finally this reversal seems to be triggered by lehman s collapse

taxing capital not a bad idea after all we quantitatively characterize the optimal capital and labor income tax in an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic uninsurable income shocks and permanent productivity difierences of households the optimal capital income tax rate is signiflcantly positive at 36 percent the optimal progressive labor income tax is roughly a at tax of 23 percent with a deduction of 7 200 relative to average household income of 42 000 the high optimal capital income tax is mainly driven by the life cycle structure of the model whereas the optimal progressivity of the labor income tax is attributable to the insurance and redistribution role of the tax system jel e62 h21 h24

time varying idiosyncratic risk and aggregate consumption dynamics abstract long term earnings losses for displaced workers are large and counter cyclical similarly the skewness of earnings growth rates is strongly pro cyclical this paper presents an incomplete markets business cycle model in which idiosyncratic risk varies over time in accordance with these empirical findings these dynamics of idiosyncratic risk give rise to a cyclical precautionary savings motive that substantially raises the volatility of aggregate consumption growth according to the model idiosyncratic risk spiked during the great recession leading to a substantial decline in aggregate consumption

earnings instability and earnings inequality of males in the united states 1967 1991 although much research has focused on recent increases in annual earnings inequality in the united states the increases could have come from either of two sources the distribution of lifetime earnings could have become more unequal or the receipt of lifetime earnings could have become more unstable based on an analysis of the 1968 92 panel study of income dynamics we find that lifetime earnings inequality increased during the early 1980s and that earnings instability increased during the 1970s we also examine how these trends are related to changes in the distribution of wages and hours and the returns to education

labor earnings dynamics in a developing economy with a large informal sector abstract we study labor earnings dynamics in a developing economy with a large informal sector we use nationally representative brazilian panel data that cover both formal and informal workers we document large disparities in earnings fluctuations faced by these segments of the labor market as well as the high frequency of transitions between them informality is associated with more volatile earnings while workers in the formal sector are subject to significant downside risk transitions between formal and informal employment bring large asymmetric earnings shocks and have a frequency that depends on age and the initial earnings level

dynamic global linkages of the brics stock markets with the united states and europe under external crisis shocks implications for portfolio risk forecasting crisis shocks often lead to changes in the interdependence across stock markets and thus risk assessment and management this paper investigates the extent to which the global financial crisis of 2008 2009 which was triggered by the us subprime crisis in 2007 and the european debt crisis started at the end of 2009 affect the interdependence of the leading emerging markets of the brics countries with those of the united states and europe our empirical analysis makes use of the fiaparch model combined with the dynamic equicorrelation deco fiaparch which allows for the estimation of market linkage for a large group of countries as a whole while controlling for asymmetric volatility and long memory the results reveal the presence of important changes in the time varying linkages of the brics stock markets with the us and european ones in particular the average linkages have significantly been higher between 2007 and the first half of 2012 than the remaining part of the sample and there is also evidence of structural change around the lehman brothers collapse we also show the effects of these stylized facts on portfolio risk assessment and forecasting

cyclical dynamics in idiosyncratic labor market risk is individual labor income more risky in recessions this is a difficult question to answer because existing panel data sets are so short to address this problem we develop a generalized method of moments estimator that conditions on the macroeconomic history that each member of the panel has experienced variation in the cross sectional variance between households with differing macroeconomic histories allows us to incorporate business cycle information dating back to 1930 even though our data do not begin until 1968 we implement this estimator using household level labor earnings data from the panel study of income dynamics we estimate that idiosyncratic risk is i highly persistent with an annual autocorrelation coefficient of 0 95 and ii strongly countercyclical with a conditional standard deviation that increases by 75 percent from 0 12 to 0 21 as the macroeconomy moves from peak to trough

redistribution and social insurance we study optimal redistribution and insurance in a life cycle economy with private idiosyncratic shocks we characterize pareto optima show the forces determining optimal labor distortions and derive closed form expressions for their limiting behavior the labor distortions for high productivity shocks are determined by the labor elasticity and the higher moments of the shock process the labor distortions for low productivity shocks are determined by the autocorrelation of the shock process redistributive objectives and past distortions in a model calibrated using newly available estimates of idiosyncratic shocks the labor distortions are u shaped and the savings distortions generally increase in current earnings jel d82 d91 h21 h23 i38 j22 j24

sources of lifetime inequality is lifetime inequality mainly due to differences across people established early in life or to differences in luck experienced over the working lifetime we answer this question within a model that features idiosyncratic shocks to human capital estimated directly from data as well as heterogeneity in ability to learn initial human capital and initial wealth we find that as of age 23 differences in initial conditions account for more of the variation in lifetime earnings lifetime wealth and lifetime utility than do differences in shocks received over the working lifetime jel d31 d91 j24 j31 to what degree is lifetime inequality due to differences across people established early in life as opposed to differences in luck experienced over the working lifetime among the individual differences established early in life which ones are the most important a convincing answer to these questions is of fundamental importance first and most simply an answer serves to contrast the potential importance of the myriad policies directed at modifying or at providing insurance for initial conditions e g public education against those directed at shocks over the working lifetime e g unemployment insurance second a discussion of lifetime inequality cannot go too far before discussing which specific type of initial condition is the most critical for determining how one fares in life third a useful framework for answering these questions should also be central in the analysis of a wide range of policies considered in macroeconomics public finance and labor economics we view lifetime inequality through the lens of a risky human capital model agents differ in terms of three initial conditions initial human capital learning ability and financial wealth initial human capital can be viewed as controlling the intercept of an agent s mean earnings profile whereas learning ability acts to rotate

wealth inequality and intergenerational links previous work has had difficulty generating household saving behaviour that makes the distribution of wealth much more concentrated than that of labour earnings and that makes the richest households hold onto large amounts of wealth even during very old age i construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generations model in which parents and children are linked by accidental and voluntary bequests and by earnings ability i show that voluntary bequests can explain the emergence of large estates while accidental bequests alone cannot and that adding earnings persistence within families increases wealth concentration even more i also show that the introduction of a bequest motive generates lifetime savings profiles more consistent with the data

existence of a monetary steady state in a matching model indivisible money abstract existence of a monetary steady state is established for a random matching model with divisible goods indivisible money an arbitrary bound on individual money holdings and take it or leave it offers by consumers the background environment is that in papers by shi and by trejos and wright the monetary steady state shown to exist has nice properties the value function defined on money holdings is strictly increasing and strictly concave and the measure over money holdings has full support

search bargaining money and prices the goal of this paper is to extend existing search theoretic models of fiat money which until now have assumed that the price level is exogenous by explicitly incorporating bilateral bargaining this allows us to determine the price level endogenously and leads to additional insights concerning the role of money for example we find that monetary equilibria are generally inefficient in the sense that output and prices differ from the solution to a social planner s problem although the difference can become small as the discount rate or search friction vanishes we also find that there exist nonstationary inflationary equilibria

wealth distribution inflation tax and societal benefits of illiquid bonds illiquid nominal government bonds are shown to have two opposing effects on welfare first the relatively poor choose to top up money balances for future consumption by purchasing nominal bonds at a discount the wealth distribution becomes more centered with a smaller consumption deviation from the first best second the higher inflation tax on monetary wealth to finance interest payments makes money less valuable so that the quantity of output produced in exchange for money decreases the trade off between the welfare enhancing effect on wealth distribution and the distortionary effect on output implies the socially optimal discount rate and liquidity

consumption inequality and family labor supply we examine the link between wage and consumption inequality using a life cycle model incorporating consumption and family labor supply decisions we derive analytical expressions for the dynamics of consumption hours and earnings of two earners in the presence of correlated wage shocks nonseparability progressive taxation and asset accumulation the model is estimated using panel data for hours earnings assets and consumption we focus on family labor supply as an insurance mechanism and find strong evidence of smoothing of permanent wage shocks once family labor supply assets and taxes are properly accounted for there is little evidence of additional insurance jel d12 d14 d91 j22 j31

modeling denomination structures previous work on the denomination structure of currency treats as exogenous the distribution of transactions and the denominations held by people here by way of a matching model both are endogenous in the model trades in pairwise meetings alternate in time with the opportunity to freely choose a portfolio of denominations and there is a trade off between the benefits of small denomination money for transacting and the costliness of carrying a large quantity of small denomination money for a given denomination structure a monetary steady state is shown to exist the model implies that too small denominations are abandoned

separation of unit of account from medium of exchange the separation of a unit of account uoa from a medium of exchange moe in the commodity money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller s choice of uoa in terms of either an moe or a unit of metal weight if the likelihood of debasement of an moe and its rate are high enough the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an moe interestingly this moe uoa separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price whereas an moe uoa integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one this implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat money system where moe and uoa are integrated

earnings and consumption dynamics a nonlinear panel data framework we develop a new quantile based panel data framework to study the nature of income persistence and the transmission of income shocks to consumption log earnings are the sum of a general markovian persistent component and a transitory innovation the persistence of past shocks to earnings is allowed to vary according to the size and sign of the current shock consumption is modeled as an age dependent nonlinear function of assets unobservable tastes and the two earnings components we establish the nonparametric identification of the nonlinear earnings process and of the consumption policy rule exploiting the enhanced consumption and asset data in recent waves of the panel study of income dynamics we find that the earnings process features nonlinear persistence and conditional skewness we confirm these results using population register data from norway we then show that the impact of earnings shocks varies substantially across earnings histories and that this nonlinearity drives heterogeneous consumption responses the framework provides new empirical measures of partial insurance in which the transmission of income shocks to consumption varies systematically with assets the level of the shock and the history of past shocks

risks of latin america sovereign debts before and after the financial crisis we investigate the financial determinants of the return and volatility of sovereign cds spread from six major latin american countries before and after the bankruptcy of lehman brothers other than cboe vix index we also find that global factors including us baa aaa default yield ted spread and us treasury rate all contribute to the changes in these sovereign cds spread although global risk aversion vix is a significant determinant of sovereign debt spread in the years after the crisis the emphasis has shifted towards short term refinancing risk ted furthermore the risk of greek sovereign debt crisis also transmitted latin american cds spreads immediately but only in the post lehman sub period these findings provide implications for international bonds and credit derivatives trading strategies

the transmission from equity markets to commodity markets in crises periods abstractthis article investigates the transmission from equity markets to commodity markets during two major financial crises namely the subprime mortgage and the sovereign debt crises we perform an analysis on sub stages from 3 january 2003 to 31 october 2013 to capture the price behaviour of both equity and commodity markets two financial crises indicators vix and cds are used to represent fear of a crisis we find that correlations between commodity and equity markets are time varying and highly volatile during a financial crisis while sharing some common features commodities cannot be considered a homogeneous asset class segmentation characteristics of commodity markets disappear in times of financial crises reducing their substitutability as an investment portfolio for asset diversification purposes through our test for granger causality we find the existence of transmission during a financial crisis volatility spillover effect also plays a major role as transmission mechanisms after the

accounting for the u s earnings and wealth inequality we show that a theory of earnings and wealth inequality based on the optimal choices of ex ante identical households that face uninsured idiosyncratic shocks to their endowments of efficiency labor units accounts for the u s earnings and wealth inequality almost exactly

buffer stock saving and households response to income shocks we use the italian survey of household income and wealth a rather unique dataset with a long time dimension of panel information on consumption income and wealth to structurally estimate a buffer stock saving model we exploit the information contained in the joint dynamics of income consumption and wealth to quantify the degree of insurance against income risk the estimated model implies that italian households can insure between 89 and 95 percent of a transitory and between 7 and 9 percent of a permanent income shock compared to existing empirical estimates for the same dataset our findings suggest that italian households do not have access to significant insurance beyond self insurance

inferring labor income risk and partial insurance from economic choices this paper uses the information contained in the joint dynamics of individuals labor earnings and consumption choice decisions to quantify both the amount of income risk that individuals face and the extent to which they have access to informal insurance against this risk we accomplish this task by using indirect inference to estimate a structural consumption savings model in which individuals both learn about the nature of their income process and partly insure shocks via informal mechanisms in this framework we estimate i the degree of partial insurance ii the extent of systematic differences in income growth rates iii the precision with which individuals know their own income growth rates when they begin their working lives iv the persistence of typical labor income shocks v the tightness of borrowing constraints and vi the amount of measurement error in the data in implementing indirect inference we find that an auxiliary model that approximates the true structural equations of the model which are not estimable works very well with negligible small sample bias the main substantive findings are that income shocks are moderately persistent systematic differences in income growth rates are large individuals have substantial amounts of information about their income growth rates and about one half of income shocks are smoothed via partial insurance putting these findings together the amount of uninsurable lifetime income risk that individuals perceive is substantially smaller than what is typically assumed in calibrated macroeconomic models with incomplete markets

on the efficiency of monetary exchange how divisibility of money matters abstract we use alternative assumptions about the divisibility of goods and money and the ability of agents to use lotteries on money to investigate to what extent the indivisibility of money is the cause for the typically inefficient production and consumption decisions in search theoretic models of money our framework potentially generates three types of inefficiencies the no trade inefficiency where no trade takes place even though it would be socially efficient to trade and the too much trade and too little trade inefficiencies where the quantities produced and exchanged are either larger or smaller than what the solution to a social planner s problem would mandate it is shown that while the no trade and the too much trade inefficiencies are caused by the indivisibility of money the too little trade inefficiency remains even when money is divisible unless it is sufficiently valued

are americans saving optimally for retirement we solve each household s optimal saving decisions using a life cycle model that incorporates uncertain lifetimes uninsurable earnings and medical expenses progressive taxation government transfers and pension and social security benefits with optimal decision rules we compare household by household wealth predictions from the life cycle model using a nationally representative sample we find making use of household specific earnings histories that the model accounts for more than 80 percent of the 1992 cross sectional variation in wealth fewer than 20 percent of households have less wealth than their optimal targets and the wealth deficit of those who are undersaving is generally small

education and persistence of earnings shocks abstract we estimate arellano blundell and bonhomme s 2017 nonlinear earnings process on italian data we show that the persistence of earnings history is lower for low educated households than for high educated ones with low educated households taking longer to recover from bad shocks

why is consumption so smooth for thirty years it has been accepted that consumption is smooth because permanent income is smoother than measured income this paper considers the evidence for the contrary position that permanent income is in fact less smooth than measured income so that the smoothness of consumption cannot be straightforwardly explained by permanent income theory the paper argues that in postwar u s quarterly data consumption is smooth because it responds with a lag to changes in income

the vulnerability of microfinance to financial turmoil evidence from the global financial crisis summary has microfinance become crisis prone like other sources of finance this paper provides empirical evidence on credit growth patterns of microfinance institutions in the early 2000s results suggest that microfinance has become vulnerable to financial turmoil in the global financial crisis credit growth dropped sharply moreover the crisis impact was more severe when institutions had been active in tapping domestic and international financial markets for funds and had operated in countries experiencing a severe post crisis recession finally we find that microcredit adopted the cyclical characteristics of credit growth in the traditional banking sector with credit booms followed by credit busts

return on commodity money small change problems and fiat money we construct a search theoretic model of commodity money where a penny is an indivisible silver coin that can be either melted into a silver bar yielding a positive return or used as a medium of exchange in equilibria where the rate of return on silver is sufficiently high small change problems arise in the form of too much trade inefficiency because of a too high value of a penny and no trade inefficiency because of a shortage of coins in circulation in the fiat money system however trades are not affected at all by the rate of return on silver and the value of a penny is determined by its medium of exchange role without incurring the loss in efficiency due to small change problems

the macroeconomic implications of rising wage inequality in the united states in recent decades american workers have faced a rising college premium a narrowing gender gap and increasing wage volatility this paper explores the quantitative and welfare implications of these changes the framework is an incomplete markets life cycle model in which individuals choose education intrafamily time allocation and savings given the observed history of the u s wage structure the model replicates key trends in cross sectional inequality in hours worked earnings and consumption recent cohorts enjoy welfare gains on average as higher relative wages for college graduates and for women translate into higher educational attainment and a more even division of labor within the household

a model of a currency shortage abstract until the mid 19th century shortages of currency were common moreover a frequent policy response was a prohibition on the export of coins we use a random matching model with indivisible money to explain a shortage and to judge the desirability of a prohibition on the export of coins the model although extreme in many regards represents better than earlier models a demand for outside money and the problems that arise when that money is indivisible it can also rationalize a prohibition on the export of money

labor income dynamics and the insurance from taxes transfers and the family article i nfo what do labor income dynamics look like over the life cycle what is the relative importance of persistent shocks transitoryshocksandheterogeneousprofiles to what extent dotaxes transfers and thefamilyattenuate these various factors in the evolution of life cycle inequality in this paper we use rich norwegian population panel data to answer these important questions we let individuals with different education levels have a sepa rate income process and within each skill group we allow for non stationarity in age and time heterogeneous experience profiles and shocksof varying persistence we findthattheincomeprocesses differ systematically by age skill level and their interaction to accurately describe labor income dynamics over the life cycle it is neces sary toallow for heterogeneity by education levelsand account for non stationarity inage and time our findings suggest that the redistributive nature of the norwegian tax transfer system plays a key role in attenuating the magnitude and persistence of income shocks especially among the low skilled by comparison spouse s income matters less for the dynamics of inequality over the life cycle

modeling earnings dynamics in this paper we use indirect inference to estimate a joint model of earnings employment job changes wage rates and work hours over a career we use the model to address a number of important questions in labor economics including the source of the experience profile of wages the response of job changes to outside wage offers and the effects of seniority on job changes we also study the dynamic response of wage rates hours and earnings to various shocks and measure the relative contributions of the shocks to the variance of earnings in a given year and over a lifetime we find that human capital accounts for most of the growth of earnings over a career although job seniority and job mobility also play significant roles unemployment shocks have a large impact on earnings in the short run as well as a substantial long term effect that operates through the wage rate shocks associated with job changes and unemployment make a large contribution to the variance of career earnings and operate mostly through the job specific error components of wages and hours

macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the chinese economy a gvar analysis abstractthis article studies the spillovers of economic policy uncertainty epu from developed economies to china in terms of the source extent and persistence by estimating a global vector autoregressive gvar model with both financial and trade variables acting as the transmission channels our findings confirm the existence of international transmissions of policy uncertainty while the patterns differ markedly the us epu appears to be the most significant cause of the fall of export industrial production equity price and exchange rate meanwhile the eu epu is also to be blamed for the depreciation of rmb in contrast to industrial production which shows the largest negative impact chinese inflation increases to a relatively smaller extent with the epu shocks ranking as the us japanese and the eu regardless of the minor impact on a long term interest rate the short term interest rate in china reacts positively to the european and us epu shocks despite the independent national monetary poli

risk sharing in private information models with asset accumulation explaining the excess smoothness of consumption we study testable implications for the dynamics of consumption and income of models in which first best allocations are not achieved because of a moral hazard problem with hidden saving we show that in this environment agents typically achieve more insurance than that obtained under self insurance with a single asset consumption allocations exhibit excess smoothness as found and defined by campbell and deaton 1989 we argue that excess smoothness in this context is equivalent to a violation of the intertemporal budget constraint considered in a bewley economy with a single asset we also show parameterizations of our model in which we can obtain a closed form solution for the efficient insurance contract and where the excess smoothness parameter has a structural interpretation in terms of the severity of the moral hazard problem we present tests of excess smoothness applied to u k microdata and constructed using techniques proposed by hansen roberds and sargent 1991 to test the intertemporal budget constraint our theoretical model leads us to interpret them as tests of the market structure faced by economic agents we also construct a test based on the dynamics of the cross sectional variances of consumption and income that is in a precise sense complementary to that based on hansen roberds and sargent 1991 and that allows us to estimate the same structural parameter the results we report are consistent with the implications of the model and are internally coherent

money and prices a model of search and bargaining abstract this paper makes commodities divisible and incorporates bargaining into the search theoretic model of money to determine the purchasing power of money or price it is shown that two monetary equilibria always coexist where fiat money is universally accepted the two equilibria differ in price output welfare and the velocity of money sunspot monetary equilibria exist in which money is universally accepted in all states of the economy multiplicity has novel implications on the effectiveness of currency substitution and exchange market intervention journal of economic literature classification numbers c78 e40

intertemporal choice and consumption mobility the theory of intertemporal consumption choice makes sharp predictions about the evolution of the entire distribution of household consumption not just about its conditional mean in the paper we study the empirical transition matrix of consumption using a panel drawn from the bank of italy survey of household income and wealth we estimate the parameters that minimize the distance between the empirical and the theoretical transition matrix of the consumption distribution the transition matrix generated by our estimates matches remarkably well the empirical matrix both in the aggregate and in samples stratified by education our estimates strongly reject the consumption insurance model and suggest that households smooth income shocks to a lesser extent than implied by the permanent income hypothesis jel d52 d91 i30

dynamic correlation and equicorrelation analysis of global financial turmoil evidence from emerging east asian stock markets abstractthis study investigates the dynamic conditional correlations dccs between eight emerging east asian stock markets and the us stock market and analyses the dynamic equicorrelation among these nine stock markets we find a significant increase in the conditional correlations and equicorrelation in the first phase of the global financial crisis we refer to this finding as contagion from the us stock market to the emerging east asian markets we also find an additional significant process of increasing correlations and equicorrelation herding in the second phase of the global financial crisis further we employ two new models namely dccx mgarch a dcc multivariate garch model with exogenous variables and decox mgarch a dynamic equicorrelation multivariate garch model with exogenous variables to identify the channels of contagion we find that an increase in the vix index increases the conditional correlations and equicorrelation while increases in ted spreads decrease the conditional corre

pairwise trade and coexistence of money and higher return assets abstract a new theory of coexistence of money and higher return assets is set out it applies to any setting in which some trade involves an exchange of goods for assets and occurs between two people a buyer and a seller we show that there exists a function mapping the portfolios of the buyer and the seller to the trade that occurs such that i the trade is in the buyer seller core and ii some people are induced to enter the buyer seller meeting with money

consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle a striking feature of u s data on income and consumption is that inequality increases with age this paper asks if individual specific earnings risk can provide a coherent explanation we find that it can we construct an overlapping generations general equilibrium model in which households face uninsurable earnings shocks over the course of their lifetimes earnings inequality is exogenous and is calibrated to match data from the u s panel study on income dynamics consumption inequality is endogenous and matches well data from the u s consumer expenditure survey the total risk households face is decomposed into that realized before entering the labor market and that realized throughout the working years in welfare terms the latter is found to be more important than the former

modelling income processes with lots of heterogeneity all empirical models of earnings processes in the literature assume a good deal of homogeneity in contrast to this we model earnings processes allowing for lots of heterogeneity between agents we also introduce an extension to the linear arma model that allows that the initial convergence

nonlinear household earnings dynamics self insurance and welfare earnings dynamics are much richer than typically assumed in macro models with heterogeneous agents this holds for individual pre tax and household post tax earnings and across administrative social security administration and survey panel study of income dynamics data we study the implications of two processes for household post tax earnings in a standard life cycle model a canonical earnings process that includes a persistent and a transitory shock and a rich earnings dynamics process that allows for age dependence of moments non normality and nonlinearity in previous earnings and age allowing for richer earnings dynamics implies a substantially better fit of the evolution of cross sectional consumption inequality over the life cycle and of the individual level degree of consumption insurance against persistent earnings shocks richer earnings dynamics also imply lower welfare costs of earnings risk but as the canonical earnings process do not generate enough concentration at the upper tail of the wealth distribution

transmission of the u s subprime crisis to emerging markets evidence on the decoupling recoupling hypothesis abstract we find that emerging markets appeared to be somewhat insulated from developments in u s financial markets from early 2007 to summer 2008 from that point on however emerging markets responded very strongly to the deteriorating situation in the u s financial system and real economy our regression event study focusing on 15 types of news indicates that a range of financial and real economic news emanating from the us had statistically and economically large impacts on 14 emerging markets and several news events uniformly moved markets policy measures taken in emerging markets to insulate themselves from global financial developments proved inadequate in the face of the credit crunch and decline in international trade that followed the lehman bankruptcy in september 2008

the great recession us dynamics and spillovers to the world economy abstract this paper provides an empirical investigation of both the within us and international channels of transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks by means of a 50 country macroeconometric model estimated over the 1980 2009 period including measures of excess liquidity and financial fragility specifically designed in order to evaluate the relevance of the boom bust credit cycle view put forward as an interpretation of the recent great recession episode we find that such a view is consistent with the empirical evidence moreover concerning the real effects of financial shocks within the us we detect stronger evidence of an asset prices channel rather than a liquidity channel concerning the spillovers to the world economy we find that while financial disturbances are transmitted to foreign countries through us house and stock price dynamics as well as excess liquidity creation the trade channel is the key trasmission mechanism of real shocks

modeling small change a review article abstract in the big problem of small change sargent and velde apply a cash in advance model to the history of coinage and to contemporary thought about coinage they assert that their model accounts for puzzling observations involving the depreciation and disappearance of small coins i question its usefulness for that purpose and for other issues pertaining to coinage my main concern is that their model does not depict the problems usually associated with full bodied coinage systems problems that stem from the technological difficulties of having a full bodied coinage system in which money is portable divisible durable and recognizable

money inventories in search equilibrium the paper relaxes the one unit storage capacity imposed in the basic search theoretic model of fiat money with indivisible real commodities and indivisible money agents can accumulate as much money as they want it characterizes the stationary distributions of money and shows that for reasonable parameter values e g production cost discounting degree of specialization a monetary equilibrium exists there are multiple stationary distributions of a given amount of money which differ in their levels of economic activity and welfare the model reveals two essential features of money first the marginal expected utility of money decreases second there exists an endogenous upper bound on the money holdings agents willingly produce and sell for money up to this bound and refuse to do so if their money holdings exceed this bound

heterogeneous life cycle profiles income risk and consumption inequality was the increase in income inequality in the us due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks the implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question we use consumer expenditure survey cex repeated cross section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life cycle changes transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results first we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 1990s second we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles

income variance dynamics and heterogeneity recent theoretical work has shown the importance of measuring microeconomic uncertainty for models of both general and partial equilibrium under imperfect insurance in this paper the assumption of i i d income innovations used in previous empirical studies is removed and the focus of the analysis is placed on models for the conditional variance of income shocks which is related to the measure of risk emphasized by the theory we first discriminate amongst various models of earnings determination that separate income shocks into idiosyncratic transitory and permanent components we allow for education and time specific differences in the stochastic process for earnings and for measurement error the conditional variance of the income shocks is modelled as a parsimonious arch process with both observable and unobserved heterogeneity the empirical analysis is conducted on data drawn from the 1967 1992 panel study of income dynamics we find strong evidence of sizeable arch effects as well as evidence of unobserved heterogeneity in the variances

contagion across us and european financial markets evidence from the cds markets abstract this study investigates whether contagion occurred during the recent global financial crisis across european and us financial markets the methodologies used to test for contagion are based on changes in correlation coskewness cokurtosis and covolatility these tests are applied to a set of bank sector cds insurance sector cds sovereign bonds equity and volatility indices the findings indicate significant evidence of contagion especially through the channels of higher order moments