modeling growth and liberalization using smooth transitions analysis i introduction there is a large and growing literature on liberalization and its effects stimulated initially by the very extensive trade reform programs promoted in developing countries over the last fifteen years or so and sustained by the attempts to understand what is happening in the eastern and central european economies the latter do not feature in this paper though the techniques demonstrated here may in time prove to be useful for gaining insight into the effects of regime changes underway liberalization in the sense of trade reforms which reduce anti export bias in one way or another while improving the information content of relative price changes has been promoted in some eighty or so developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s some of these liberalizations are unilateral most are policy conditioned under the aegis of world bank structural adjustment loans sals 1 all have been undertaken on the assumption that liberalization will ultimately improve export and growth performance the evidence on liberalization and growth however is at best somewhat mixed on the one hand one has the exhaustive study of papageorgiou michaely and choksi 1991 which claims a close and direct association on the other hand greenaway and sapsford 1994 find only a limited role for liberalization and a range of studies of sals associate adjustment with a deterioration in growth performance 2 these studies generally rely either on crude data inspection simple correlation analysis or multivariate regression this paper takes a new approach to the question it starts from the presumption that any changes in economic performance following a liberalization may be more appropriately modeled as a steady transition rather than a discrete change to model the change in this way we make use of the recent work of granger and terasvirta 1994 who explore the properties of a variety of nonlinear specifications that facilitate modeling structural change as a smooth transition between states we estimate and test the adequacy of a number of such specifications our analysis is in two stages first we take a novel approach to the modeling of growth which allows us to model deterministic change without as other analysts have done imposing discrete changes not only does this help clarify the statistical properties of the time series it also challenges the assumptions that underpin much growth modeling having identified the transitions in the growth series we are investigating we then explore the coincidence of these transitions with well documented episodes of liberalization we do not formally test whether liberalization results in growth our results are however informative in two respects firstly they place a question mark against the widely held presumption that liberalization is a panacea for growth secondly they also point the way to the appropriate econometric modeling of these processes the remainder of the paper is structured as follows section ii briefly describes the context against which our analysis is set section iii sets out the details of our methodology and the models to be tested section iv reports our results contrasts them with those of previous work and evaluates the implications for policy section v concludes and identifies possible extensions ii liberalization exports and growth previous evidence there are essentially two strands of the literature which provide relevant background one which relates exports and growth a second which relates liberalization to exports and growth the exports and growth literature is an extensive one which goes back some years 3 it starts from the presumption that exports and growth are directly related with causality running from changes in exports to changes in growth 4 analysts have deployed a variety of empirical methods usually of growth accounting type models and covering a range of countries and time periods

economic development and income inequality further evidence on the u curve hypothesis abstract internationally comparable data on inequality and income are utilized to reassess the empirical status of kusnets u curve hypothesis the hypothesis seems well supported when both developed countries dcs and less developed countries lcds are included in the sample however the position changes rather dramatically if the sample is restricted to lcds and very small support for the hypothesis is then observed also a simple comparison indicates that some of the support reported in earlier studies may have been due to the use of conventional gross domestic product per capita in general results based on gini coefficient seem less favorable to the hypothesis than those derived from household income shares

development and inequality revisited three decades after the seminal article of kuznets 1955 and one decade after the empirical investigation of ahluwalia 1976b the relationship between income inequality and economic developement is still controversial this paper examines the above relationship within a time series cross section framework in a sample of countries which are representative of the non centrally planned economies of the world we use gdp per capita in real un international comparison project dollors as an indicator of a country s level of economic development the results lend support to the kuznets inverse u hypothesis although other factors relfecting the institutional setting of a country are found to affect income inequality significantly during the development process as well similar results are obtained if we exclude developed countries from the sample

pension deficits an unnecessary evil many companies believe that underfunding pension plans is an inexpensive way to borrow from employees and that mismatching equity investments to bondlike pension promises creates shareholder value to the contrary financial economics calls for fully funding and immunizing accrued pensions for nonguaranteed pensions inadequate funding magnifies employees exposure to their employers financial health exposure that they cannot diversify fully securing the pensions eliminates this inefficiency in employee compensation governmental guarantees eliminate the employees pension risk but invite weak sponsors to extract subsidies from strong ones through underfunding a statutory requirement of full funding and immunization would eliminate these subsidies

co2 emissions non renewable and renewable electricity production economic growth and international trade in italy abstract this paper applies the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration to investigate the dynamic causal relationships between co2 emissions per capita real gdp per capita per capita non renewable electricity production and per capita renewable electricity production and international trade in the case of italy from 1960 to 2011 we find cointegration among these variables in the presence of possible structural breaks and we overcome the problem of multicollinearity in the research design the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis is validated analytically because the estimated pollution model indicates that economic growth leads to less pollution over time per capita renewable electricity production reduces the level of co2 emissions per capita in the short run and in the long run whereas international trade only impacts positively upon carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the long run international trade granger causes co2 emissions per capita and non renewable electricity production per capita moreover the results depict the existence of the long run unidirectional granger causality relation running from output per capita to renewable electricity production per capita and from non renewable electricity production per capita to renewable electricity production per capita the findings indicate that renewable electricity production is a key solution in reducing pollutant emissions over time this result should be of concern to policy makers

should the kuznets effect be relied on to induce equalizing growth evidence from post 1950 development abstract the large body of cross sectional statistical research assessing 1 a kuznets inverted u for less developed countries ldcs 2 b a turning point is analyzed an alternative methodology is presented those countries which started in 1950 well below the turning point in rgdp and which reached an rgdp well above the turning point by 1980 are utilized as key cases income distribution data and assessments from individual country experts are combined with historical comparative microanalyses for each key case brazil costa rica greece japan malaysia south korea taiwan and turkey to construct patterns of income distribution during this crucial growth period it is demonstrated that the jury is still very much out on the kuznets inverted u for ldcs and the notion of a turning point should be rejected copyright 1997 elsevier science ltd

the economics of rising stars this paper analyzes an occupation in which there is substantial uncertainty about individual performance and past performance is correlated with future outcomes in equilibrium only the young enter the occupation and only the successful stay on the young are numerous and earn incomes well below what their current alternative o ffers success is rare and rewarded highly the implied distribution of earnings must have positive skewness copyright 1988 by american economic association

determinants of portfolio performance ii an update 1991 determinants of portfolio performance ii an update financial analysts journal vol 47 no 3 pp 40 48

social security privatization a structure for analysis this paper identifies the key economic issues that must be addressed in the debate over a privatized social security system we examine a two pillar plan the first pillar would consist of a demogrant a small indexed pension of the same dollar amount for all retirees who had contributed to the system over a full lifetime of work the second pillar would consist of a fully funded individual defined contribution account financed by payroll taxes held in financial institutions and directed by participants we explore how such a system would affect the risks households face how it would alter the distribution of income and how it might influence household behavior including incentives to work and save and portfolio choices we also examine macroeconomic issues how the transition to a private plan would occur and what the likely effects would be on national saving we conclude that a two pillar system offers several positive features namely a reduction in political risk an increase in household portfolio choice and improved work incentives disadvantages include less redistributiveness and national risk sharing and increased administrative costs this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

investor mood herding and the ramadan effect in view of evidence linking herding and social mood we examine whether the positive mood documented during ramadan translates into higher herding compared to non ramadan days drawing on a sample of seven majority muslim countries we report significant herding during ramadan in most of our sample markets additionally we show that herding appears significantly stronger within rather than outside ramadan for most tests whereby its significance is manifested on both ramadan and non ramadan days overall herding significance within outside ramadan exhibits some variation in its levels across markets in relation to variables reflective of market states both domestically market returns market volume and internationally us market returns us investors sentiment global financial crisis market states

evaluating the impact of world bank structural adjustment lending 1980 87 this article attempts to evaluate the world bank s programme aid in the form of structural adjustment loans with emphasis on the distinction between the influence of programme finance and the influence of the policy conditions attached to this finance the rate of return on world bank programme aid measured in terms of the impact of gdp growth rates is found to have been disappointing the study also identifies a negative correlation between structural adjustment loans and investment it was also found that the bank programme aid s strongest beneficial effect has been on the balance of payments current account both via the stimulation of exports and via the curbing of imports

foreign direct investment and income inequality further evidence abstract this paper examines the relationship between foreign direct investment fdi and income inequality special attention has been paid to data comparability and model specification by comparing models with and without geographical dummies this study shows that the statistically significant correlation between fdi and income inequality widely obtained in earlier studies might capture more of the geographical difference in inequality than the deleterious influence of fdi and to the extent that fdi does give rise to more unequal income distribution in the host less developed countries ldcs only east southeast asia ldcs appear to have been harmed by the inflow of fdi during the 1970s it should be noted however that the second result refers only to the marginal impact not the total impact apart from fdi our empirical evidence suggests that the level of economic development the direct role of government and to a smaller degree the significance of the agriculture sector in an ldc are crucial determinants of income inequality

consumption asymmetry and the stock market empirical evidence abstract this paper examines whether u s stock market value affects consumption asymmetrically using cointegration and error correction methodology the results confirm that stock market value asymmetrically affects real per capita consumption negative news affects consumption more than positive news

new ways of looking at old issues inequality and growth abstract the paper uses new cross country data on income and asset land distribution to show that i there is a strong negative relationship between initial inequality in the asset distribution and long term growth ii inequality reduces income growth for the poor but not for the rich and iii available longitudinal data provide little support for the kuznets hypothesis policies that increase aggregate investment and facilitate acquisition of assets by the poor might thus be doubly beneficial for growth and poverty reduction

the incentive effects of tournaments revisited evidence from the european pga tour this analysis of data from the 1987 european men s professional golf association pga tour strongly supports the hypothesis that the level and structure of prizes in pga tournaments influence players performance specifically players performance appears to vary positively with both the total money prizes awarded in a tournament and the marginal return to effort in the final round of play a value that varies among players largely depending on how the prize money is allocated among finishers of different ranks the authors suggest that these results together with the similar results of their earlier study of the 1984 u s men s pga tour may have implications for the design of compensation systems for certain groups of workers such as corporate executives college professors and salespeople

inequality and growth in the united states evidence from a new state level panel of income inequality measures i introduction rising income inequality in the united states over the past quarter century is well documented see e g gottschalk 1997 krueger 2003 levy and murnane 1992 piketty and saez 2003 whether and by how much this change in inequality is associated with a change in economic performance is an important question yet recent empirical work has been largely inconclusive positive relationships between income inequality and economic growth have been found by partridge 1997 2005 using a panel of states and by forbes 2000 using a panel of countries empirical work by panizza 2002 and quah 2001 however has found little or no stable relationship between inequality and growth the results appear to be extremely sensitive to the econometric specification additionally barro 2000 has found evidence that the relationship is nonlinear with inequality being positively related to growth among wealthier countries like the united states but negatively related to growth among low income countries much of this recent empirical literature was initiated by the important work of deininger and squire 1996 who constructed a large cross national panel of inequality measures containing several time series observations for each nation spaced over multiple decades a parallel empirical literature also emerged using u s state level data with income inequality measures typically spaced at 10 yr intervals see e g panizza 2002 partridge 1997 2005 both the state level and the cross national empirical literatures benefited by exploiting the more advanced panel data econometrics afforded by the large n small t panel dimensions in this paper we offer a new more comprehensive panel of state level income inequality measures and use this panel to reevaluate the empirical inequality growth relationship 1 this panel has the unique feature of being large in both n and t with annual observations of the 48 contiguous states for the entirety of the postwar period 1945 2004 for nearly all the states in the panel the share of income held by the top decile experienced a prolonged period of stability after world war ii followed by a substantial increase during the 1980s and 1990s these state level trends appear to closely replicate the overall trends in aggregate u s inequality found by piketty and saez 2003 exploiting the large and balanced size of our inequality panel we explore the long run relationship between inequality and growth via three alternative dynamic panel error correction estimators the fixed effects fe estimator the mean group mg estimator of pesaran and smith 1995 and the pooled mg estimator of pesaran shin and smith 1999 the greater homogeneity of state level data helps mitigate the difficulty in adequately capturing structural differences across international panels of earlier studies such as forbes 2000 and barro 2000 corruption levels labor market flexibility tax neutrality tradition of entrepreneurship and many other factors are only poorly measured if at all barro 2000 1011 and these sources of heterogeneity are much more likely to contribute to omitted variable bias across countries than across states the results from our analysis indicate that the long run relationship between the top decile share of income and economic growth is positive in nature moreover an evaluation of several alternative income inequality measures suggests that this positive relationship is driven primarily by the concentration of income in the upper end of the income distribution the structure of the paper is as follows section ii presents the new panel of annual state level inequality measures and includes an important discussion of its key limitations section iii then offers an empirical investigation on the impact of income inequality on the growth rate of real income per capita finally section iv offers a brief set of conclusions

an alternative source of measurement error as an explanation for the inverted u hypothesis in the rapidly growing literature on the relationship between income distribution and economic development two of the most frequently investigated issues are the so called inverted u hypothesis otherwise known as the kuznets curve and short run trends in income distribution the inverted u hypothesis alleges that the relationship between income inequality and per capita income resembles an inverted u wherein at low levels of development there is little inequality but as income per capita rises inequality rises also but only up to a point after which it gradually decreases irrespective of the u shape of the relationship there is also very considerable interest in the direction size and explanation for trends in income distribution in developing countries

determinants of portfolio performance in order to delineate investment responsibility and measure performance contribution pension plan sponsors and investment managers need a clear and relevant method of attributing returns to those

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

modeling energy and development an evaluation of models and concepts most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries focusing primarily on issues that are important in industrialized countries evaluation of the results for asia of the ipcc sres models shows that broad concepts of energy and development the energy ladder and the environmental kuznets curve can be observed in the results of the models however improvements can be made in modeling the issues that underlie these concepts like traditional fuels electrification economic structural change income distribution and informal economies given the rapidly growing importance of energy trajectories of developing countries for global sustainability the challenge for the future is to develop energy models that include all these aspects of energy and development

the provision of incentives in firms i ncentives are the essence of economics despite many wide ranging claims about their supposed importance there has been little empirical assessment of incentive provision for workers the purpose of this paper is to critically overview existing work on the provision of incentives since the interests of workers and their employers are not always aligned a large theoretical literature has emphasized how firms design compensation contracts to induce employees to operate in the firm s interest this literature has reached into many areas of compensation and has pointed to a multitude of different mechanisms that can be used to induce workers to act in the interests of their employers these include piece rates options discretionary bonuses promotions profit sharing efficiency wages deferred compensation and so on my objective here is to evaluate this literature in the light of a growing empirical literature on compensation where possible i will address the literature from two perspectives first an underlying assumption of this literature is that individuals respond to contracts that reward performance accordingly i consider whether agents behave in this way and whether these responses are always in the firm s interest second i address whether firms write contracts with these responses in mind in other words do contracts look like the predictions of the theory incentives are provided to workers

privatizing social security at home and abroad a century has passed since otto von bismarck instituted the first social security system in germany since then government provision of retirement income has spread around the globe alleviating poverty among the elderly providing life span insurance via old age annuities overcoming the samaritan s dilemma by forcing everyone to save and in many countries extending coverage to include old age health insurance but for all the good it has done social security is severely limiting world saving investment and growth it threatens to bankrupt the young and future generations of some of the world s leading nations see jagadeesh gokhale et al 1996 it is the chain letter pay as you go method of financing social security that lies at the heart of the problem taking income from young savers and giving it to old spenders while placating the young with promises of repayment not only reduces national saving but straddles the next generation with the obligation the debt to meet these promises the size of these debts and the burden on the next generation will be much greater for countries with rapidly aging populations would privatization solve social security s problems this paper provides a framework for thinking about this issue

the effect on income distribution of development the growth rate and economic strategy abstract an analysis of cross section and time series data for 83 countries confirms some and contradicts other work on income distribution new findings include a dualistic socio political system is highly unfavorable for equality neither the extent of government intervention in the economy nor the rate of manufactured exports are systematically related to income distribution the analysis confirms that there is no systematic relationship between equality and the rate of economic growth educational participation and a reduction in the share of primary exports in gdp are both favorable for equality there is some support for the kuznets hypothesis that inequality increases as per capita income rises to about 400 and then declines with further income increase but the empirical support is not strong and may be weakening over time these findings lead to more optimistic conclusions then other work that rapid growth in a mixed economy is quite consistent with unchanged or even improved income distribution even at early stages of development

can the kuznets effect be relied on to induce equalizing growth abstract the use of internationally comparable income data to test kuznet s inverted u hypothesis introduces several econometric problems this study a explains and corrects for these econometric problems b assesses the sensitivity of estimated results to alternative functional specifications and sample variations c provides a more rigorous test for structural change between more and less developed countries in the phasing of the inequality trend and d estimates the time likely to elapse before various of the developing countries reach the turning point the study s findings offer broad support for kuznets s hypothesis but do not support the advocacy of development policies focused exclusively on growth for low income countries growth s equalizing phase cannot be anticipated to set in for half a century

development and distribution a critique of the cross country u hypothesis abstract this paper questions the validity of a modern paradigm viz the u hypothesis it argues that notwithstanding contrary claims the recent cross country econometric studies by ahluwalia and others have little in common from a methodological point of view with kuznets earlier intertemporal national studies ahluwalia s cross country u curve is found to be based on defective statistics and questionable methodological premises in specific the estimation of one u curve from observations on both ldcs and dcs is criticised a sample restricted to the ldc group considerably weakens support for the u hypothesis further even marginal variations in the data set lead to the virtual disappearance of ahluwalia s empirical relationship the paper concludes that the cross country u hypothesis is more of a hindrance than an aid to our comprehension of the relationship between economic growth and income distribution

wage disparity and team productivity evidence from major league baseball using data describing baseball teams from 1985 to 1998 it is found that levine s levine d i 1991 cohesiveness productivity and wage dispersion journal of economic behavior and organization 15 237 255 team cohesiveness hypothesis is supported over ramaswamy and rowthorn s ramaswamy r rowthorn e 1991 efficiency wages and dispersion economica 58 501 514 danger potential hypothesis the implication is that teams with greater wage disparity experience a reduction in team performance 2000 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

does the baseball labor market contradict the human capital model of investment this paper examines whether experienced players in major league baseball are paid more than their contribution to team revenue the author shows that wages increase with experience independently of productivity gains the results therefore contradict the human capital model of investment the evidence is in fact consistent with implicit contract models because most older players are relatively overpaid copyright 1992 by mit press

on the impact of financial development on income distribution time series evidence financial market development is said to have equalizing or unequalizing effects on income distribution previous research used cross sectional and panel data and provided mixed results suspecting that they suffer from aggregation bias we adhere to time series data and error correction modeling technique and address the issue one more time in each of the 17 countries for which we have time series data in 10 counties short run effects of financial market development on income distribution were found to be equalizing in five countries the effects were unequalizing however the equalizing effects lasted into the long run only in three countries of denmark kenya and turkey

spatial inequality and development is there an inverted u relationship abstract this paper studies the hypothesis of an inverted u shaped relationship between spatial inequality and economic development the theory of kuznets 1955 and williamson 1965 suggests that spatial inequality first increases in the process of development and then decreases to test this hypothesis i have used a unique panel data set of spatial inequalities in 56 countries at different stages of economic development covering the period 1980 2009 parametric and semiparametric regressions are carried out using cross section and unbalanced panel data the results provide strong support for the existence of an inverted u i also find some evidence that spatial inequalities increase again at very high levels of economic development

exports growth and causality in developing countries abstract previous empirical studies have interpreted results in regressions of output variables on export variables as providing support for an export promotion development strategy such an interpretation is questionable since these regressions provide no means of determining the direction of causality this paper performs causality tests between exports and growth for 37 developing countries the results cast considerable doubt on the validity of the export promotion hypothesis

mickey mouse numbers and inequality research in developing countries the usage of unreliable statistics is common in development economics particularly in research on income distributional issues it is widely believed for example that the distribution of income in taiwan equalised dramatically between the early 1950s and about 1980 under close examination it is clear much of the evidence advanced is flawed the treatment of data by a number of analysts is puzzling and links between export orientation and inequality trends are flimsy it is argued that economists should be far more concerned about data problems in their research

inequality and development across and within countries summary this paper provides a cross country comparison of how income inequality has evolved within countries at different levels of development it uses overlapping nonparametric regression which allows visual comparisons of inequality both within and across countries as a result the methodology allows more specific conclusions than cross country regressions and yet is more general than within country case studies the approach highlights the problematic conclusions that can arise with parametric regressions in particular with tests of the kuznets curve while some previous results are confirmed some new results on inequality across countries are also discovered

testing the determinants of income distribution in major league baseball i introduction income of professional athletes is a frequent topic of discussion of fans sportscasters and the general public economists have also increasingly been attracted to this topic because the distribution of income of these players has both policy and business implications as a consequence the report of major league baseball s mlb blue ribbon panel formed in 1998 by mlb commissioner bud selig received quite a lot of attention this panel was charged with describing and explaining the economic condition of mlb comprised of such dignitaries as former federal reserve chairman paul volker senator george mitchell yale university president richard levin and columnist george will this panel reported that team payrolls have become increasingly disparate the gap between rich and poor teams is not only wide but is growing levin et al 2000 a case in point is the fact that the salary of the highest paid player in the 2000 season los angeles kevin brown at 15 7 million was 95 of the entire payroll of the poorest team the minnesota twins the effect according to the panel s report is a dramatic decline in parity and competitiveness of mlb since 1994 a team in the top payroll quartile has won every world series game in 1999 the teams with the five largest payrolls had an average winning percentage of 0 557 whereas the five poorest teams had a comparable figure of 0 444 the report discusses various recommendations that may narrow this gap leading to what one might call convergence in team payrolls this article examines the distribution of income in mlb for 1985 to 2000 we revive and extend a technique first suggested by thurow 1970 and show how it can be used to test for time trends versus cross sectional demographic and economic aspects influencing income distribution thurow 1970 discusses the impact of various measures on median income in the present case by calculating the gini coefficient we can discuss the impact that the explanatory variables have on income inequality in the context of mlb we attempt to shed light on the reasons why teams have greater or lesser payroll disparity we leave the question of the effect of between team payroll inequality on team wins and team revenues for future research the issue of whether to use an inequality measure that is based on a particular distribution or one that is distribution free has been widely discussed in the income distribution literature silber 1999 ryu and slottje 1999 in advocating the use of parametric distributions point to several benefits of estimating the lorenz curve in this manner these benefits include the ability to summarize thousands of observation points with a few parameters the ability to estimate the density function at any point an enhanced ability to construct inequality measures and the ability to formulate possible laws that would otherwise not be possible to detect however there are problems associated with the use of a parametric lorenz curve such as the choice of a suitable distribution the problem is compounded by the fact that income data are often grouped and have an open ended highest income category making it difficult to obtain accurate estimates one advantage of using professional sports data is the fact that the salary is available per individual and is not grouped consequently an actual number is available for the highest income this study analyzes payroll inequality in a professional sport by team that is for each year we calculate a measure of inequality for each mlb team and consider the characteristic differences in within team payroll distributions our study is not however the first to consider income inequality within professional team sports depken 2000 and jewell and molina 2004 find that mlb teams with greater wage disparity have fewer wins furthermore sommers 1998 finds a negative relationship between team success and within team payroll inequality using national hockey league data

growth and equity with endogenous human capital taiwan s economic miracle revisited this paper presents an endogenous growth model for a small open economy with a significant trade surplus and active government development strategies in order to reexamine the major determinants of economic growth and income distribution this analysis provides a better interpretation for the intertwined relationship between growth and equity an important economic issue that has not been fully addressed by the well known models 5 9 20 in traditional growth studies economists have emphasized the role of two major factor inputs physical capital and labor output growth is considered to depend merely on exogenous shifts in population and technology recently lucas points out that this conventional approach to studying economic growth may leave more than half of output growth unexplained 12 in order to improve the understanding of the underlying endogenous forces promoting economic development new growth theorists have proposed several alternatives to the conventional models such as the endogenous fertility choice 4 the endogenous technological evolution 16 and the endogenous human capital accumulation or learning process 12 13 to name but a few these contributions have generated additional interests in and rich implications for empirical studies of public policy 6 and cross country comparisons 3 15 lucas s endogenous human capital formation model is particularly suitable for studying the

the portable guarantee to exchange back an old defined benefit for a new defined contribution dc pension plan as a defined contribution dc pension plan is introduced to replace a defined benefit db pension plan the portability benefit from a dc pension plan costs the employees to bear the investment risk from managing the pension fund to protect the retirement income and maintain the portability benefit a guarantee to exchange back the old defined benefit is supposed to be demanded for the new dc plan s participants in the guarantee market in light of such a demand this article applies a claim terminating insurance pricing model to offer a contingent claims pricing model for a portable pension guarantee using the new labor pension plan of taiwan as an illustration a guaranteed dc pension will carry an extra cost of almost 50 up to over 100 of the plan s contributions over the participant s work life given the current mandatory minimum requirement of a contribution rate of 6

level of economic development and income inequality evidence from the postwar developed world using a recent high quality panel dataset on income distribution for 19 developed countries the postwar relation between the level of economic development and income inequality is estimated in terms of several kuznets type specifications contrary to what one might expect on the basis of kuznets s hypothesis inequality does not decline with an increase in income even at such high levels of development but shows an uninverted u pattern that is characterized by an initial decline and a subsequent increase in income inequality the estimates suggest that the position noted for the postwar united states is shared widely in the developed world

measuring inequality change in an economy with income growth abstract this paper analyzes how to measure changes in inequality in an economy with income growth the discussion distinguishes three stylized kinds of economic growth 1 1 high income sector enrichment 2 2 low income sector enrichment 3 3 high income sector enlargement in which the high income sector expands and absorbs persons from the low income sector th e two enrichment types pose no problem for assessing inequality change in the course of economic growth for high income sector enrichment growth inequality might reasonably be said to increase whereas for low income sector enrichment inequality might be said to decrease these adjustments are non controversial and non problematical where problems arise is in the case of high income sector enlargement growth in that case the two alternative approaches have been shown in this paper to yield markedly results 1 1 the traditional inequality indices generate an inverted u pattern of inequality that is inequality rises in the early stages of high income sector enlargement growth and falls thereafter 2 2 the new approach suggested here based on axioms of gap inequality and numerical inequality generates a u pattern of inequality that is inequality falls in the early stages of high income sector enlargement growth and rises thereafter the discrepancy between the familiar indices and the alternative approach based on axioms of gap inequality and numerical inequality bears further scrutiny two courses of action are possible one might try to axiomatize inequality in ways that generate an inverted u pattern in high income sector enlargement growth thereby rationalizing the continued use of the usual inequality indices with the inverted u property alternatively one might retain the axioms proposed here embed them into a more formal structure and construct a family of inequality indices consistent with them others might wish to pursue the first course i am at work on the second

what can new survey data tell us about recent changes in distribution and poverty it has been claimed that in recent times the poor have lost ground both relatively and absolutely even when average levels of living have risen this article tests that claim using household surveys for 67 developing and transitional economies over 1981 94 it finds that changes in inequality and polarization were uncorrelated with changes in average living standards distribution improved as often as it worsened in growing economies and negative growth was often more detrimental to distribution than positive growth overall there was a small decrease in absolute poverty although with diverse experiences across regions and countries almost always poverty fell with growth in average living standards and rose with contraction

the kuznets process and the inequality development relationship abstract in his classic paper on economic growth and income inequality kuznets discussed the process of population shift from traditional to modern activities as the basis for a theory of distributional change during the course of development in this paper we present a formalization of the kuznets process conduct a general analysis of distributional change under this process and derive the functional forms of and conditions for a turning point in the inequality development relationship for six commonly used indices of inequality the functional form appropriate to each index is then estimated using cross section data on 60 developing and developed countries finally some extensions to the initial formalization of the kuznets process are considered

income distribution development and foreign trade a cross sectional analysis abstract this paper analyses cross sectional evidence on income inequality in developing countries within a consistent theoretical framework where the major explanatory variables are factor endowments their ownership structure and foreign trade distortions the resulting explanation of cross country differences in income distribution is considerably better than what is found in the existing literature endowments in mineral resources land concentration in agricultural exports trade protection and secondary schooling are shown to be major determinants of differences in income inequality across developing countries

rear view mirror driving in defined contribution systems the strange formula of the chilean pension funds the pioneering regulation on chilean pension funds under defined contribution program requires private managing institutions to exclusively manage individual accounts and meet a minimum return to their clients the purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the investment behaviour of pension funds and to contribute to the social security debate the findings reveal the benchmark significantly explains funds performance pension funds tend to replicate their asset allocations to exhibit similarities in returns we believe the obligation on fund managers to attain a minimum guaranteed return based on relative performance evaluation encourages them not to deviate from the industry s performance indeed the benchmark explains most of the group performance to hold similar allocations managers may monitor each others through their investment style

liberalising foreign trade through rose tinted glasses the foreign trade sector has a crucial role to play in economic development trade has variously been described as the engine or handmaiden of growth this key role has stimulated a great deal of interest in the links between trade and growth with the links between trade orientation and exports and exports and growth receiving particularly close attention alongside this time series work there have been a number of multi country studies of trade policy in developing countries those of krueger i 98 i and balassa i 982 are perhaps the best known most of this work has been directed at two questions first what does the structure of protection look like in a given developing country second are there clear links between the structure of protection trade orientation and economic performance it is widely believed in developing countries that the major lending agencies the world bank in particular perceive a clear link between trade orientation and economic performance and that this explains why around three quarters ofall conditions which attach to structural adjustment loans sals feature reform of trade policy the editors of liberalising foreign trade demetrious papageorgiou michael michaely and armeane choksi all of whom are on the world bank staff clearly believe this to be the case judging from their opening statement the benefits of open trading have by now been sufficiently demonstrated and described by economic historians and analysts in this study we take them for granted and turn our minds from the whether to the how vol i p vii in other words it is the timing phasing and sequencing involved in the design and implementation of a trade liberalisation policy that forms the subject matter of the present study vol 7 p i liberalising foreign trade is a world bank organised study which describes and evaluates 36 liberalisation episodes in i 9 countries during the period i950 i982 the study is ambitious in scale28 authors 3 editors 7 volumes and almost 3 ooo pages of text it is the most comprehensive cross country analysis of liberalisation episodes undertaken from a policy perspective a study of this scale is potentially of considerable interest given the liberalisations

inequality and growth in the united states is there asymmetric response at the state level a previous study that tried to assess the impact of economic growth on income inequality in the u s used state level data and an ardl panel model to conclude that economic growth worsens income in

explaining international and intertemporal variations in income inequality this paper explores the propositions that income inequality is relatively stable within countries and that it varies significantly among countries a new and expanded data set provides broad support for both propositions drawing on a political economy and capital market imperfection arguments to explain the intertemporal and international variation in inequality the empirical analysis shows that the predicted variables associated with the first argument a measure of civil liberties and the initial level of secondary schooling and the second argument a measure of financial depth and the initial distribution of land are indeed important determinants of inequality this paper explores two propositions regarding income inequality they are first income inequality is relatively stable within countries and second it varies significantly across countries to illustrate note that the gini coefficient in india remained almost constant for forty years 1951 92 with mean 32 6 and standard deviation 2 0 2 in contrast the variation in gini coefficients across countries is large 61 9 in honduras in 1968 compared with 17 8 in bulgaria in 1976 if substantiated these propositions have potentially significant implications for poverty the significance of the first is obvious barring any fundamental socio political change poverty reduction will depend crucially on the rate of economic growth given this the significance of the second is that in inegalitarian economies the poor will enjoy a smaller share of any national increment in income than in more egalitarian ones drawing on a new and expanded data set on inequality deininger and squire 1996a the first of the paper s three sections conducts standard statistical tests of the two propositions the sample comprises 573 observations on the most common measure of inequality the gini coefficient for 49 developed and developing countries covering the period 1947 94 the results broadly confirm our two propositions specifically analysis of variance anova shows that about 90 of the total variance in the gini coefficients

dynamics of income distribution in this paper we have obtained closed form solutions in cass koopmans growth models with heterogeneous agents the relationship between the form of the production function and the dynamics of income distribution is made explicit we then use this relationship to determine what production structure is simultaneously consistent with facts on growth and income inequality our empirical findings give support to models with decreasing returns in the reproducible factor jel classification d3 o1 o4 dans ce memoire les auteurs obtiennent des solutions pour des modeles de croissance a la cass koopmans dans le cas ou les agents sont heterogenes on explicite la relation entre la forme de la fonction de production et la dynamique de la repartition des revenus on utilise alors cette relation pour determiner quelle structure de production est arrimee aux faits connus a la fois quant a la croissance economique et a la repartition des revenus les resultats empiriques supportent les modeles ou les rendements sur les acteurs de production reproductibles sont decroissants

the saving and investment nexus for china evidence from cointegration tests the saving and investment nexus as postulated by feldstein and horioka fh 1980 is revisited the saving investment correlation for china is estimated over the periods 1952 1998 and 1952 1994 the latter culminating in a period of fixed exchange rate regime amongst the key results it is found that saving and investment are correlated for china for both the period of the fixed exchange rate and the entire sample period with high saving investment correlation the results suggest that the chinese economy is in conformity with the fh hypothesis this is a valid outcome for in china capital mobility was fairly restricted over the 1952 1994 period as indicated by the relatively low foreign direct investment