iterated regret minimization a new solution concept abstract for some well known games such as the traveler s dilemma or the centipede game traditional game theoretic solution concepts most notably nash equilibrium predict outcomes that are not consistent with empirical observations we introduce a new solution concept iterated regret minimization that exhibits the same qualitative behavior as that observed in experiments in many games of interest including traveler s dilemma the centipede game nash bargaining and bertrand competition as the name suggests iterated regret minimization involves the iterated deletion of strategies that do not minimize regret

minimax regret and strategic uncertainty this paper introduces a new solution concept a minimax regret equilibrium which allows for the possibility that players are uncertain about the rationality and conjectures of their opponents we provide several applications of our concept in particular we consider pricesetting environments and show that optimal pricing policy follows a non degenerate distribution the induced price dispersion is consistent with experimental and empirical observations baye and morgan 2004

ten little treasures of game theory and ten intuitive contradictions this paper reports laboratory data for games that are played only once these games span the standard categories static and dynamic games with complete and incomplete information for each game the treasure is a treatment in which behavior conforms nicely to predictions of the nash equilibrium or relevant refinement in each case however a change in the payoff structure produces a large inconsistency between theoretical predictions and observed behavior these contradictions are generally consistent with simple intuition based on the interaction of payoff asymmetries and noisy introspection about others decisions

competition cooperation and innovation organizational arrangements for regimes of rapid technological progress abstract discussions of the link between firm size and innovation are outmoded because the boundaries of the firm have become fuzzy in recent decades strategic alliances constellations of bilateral agreements among firms are increasingly necessary to support innovative activities such alliances can facilitate complex coordination beyond what the price system can accomplish while avoiding the dysfunctional properties sometimes associated with hierarchy antitrust law and competition policy need to recognize that these new organizational forms are often the functional antithesis of cartels though they may have certain structural similarities a more complete understanding of bilateral contracts and agreements ought to reveal when and how cooperation can support rather than impede innovation and competition

market share market value and innovation in a panel of british manufacturing firms this paper examines the empirical relationship between technological innovations market share and stock market value new developments in the estimation of dynamic count data models are used to control for unobserved firm specific heterogeneity we find a robust and positive effect of market share on observable headcounts of innovations and patents although increased product market competition in the industry tends to stimulate innovative activity furthermore the impact of innovation on market value is larger for firms with higher market shares we argue that our results are consistent with models where high market share firms have incentives to pre emptively innovate

financial factors and investment in belgium france germany and the united kingdom a comparison using company panel data we construct company panel data sets for manufacturing firms in belgium france germany and the united kingdom covering the period 1978 1989 these data sets are used to estimate empirical investment equations and to investigate the role played by financial factors in each country a robust finding is that cash flow and profits terms appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more significant in the united kingdom than in the three continental european countries this is consistent with the suggestion that financial constraints on investment may be relatively severe in the more market oriented u k financial system

sources procedures and microeconomic effects of innovation fabio arcangeli paul david frank engelman christopher freeman massimo moggi richard nelson luigi orsenigo nathan rosenberg michele salvati g n von tunzelman two anonymous referees and the participants at the meeting of the committee on distribution growth and technical progress of the italian national research council cnr rome november 16 1985 have helped with various redraftings a particularly grateful acknowledgment is for the insightful and patient help of moses abramovitz this work has been undertaken at the science policy research unit spru university of sussex as part of the research program of the designated research centre sponsored by the economic and social research council esrc earlier support to the research that led to this paper by the italian national research council cnr is also gratefully acknowledged the statistical research has been undertaken with the assistance of stephano brioschi ilaria fornari and giovannu prennushi

the founder s self assessed competence and venture performance abstract a large body of recent research seeks to understand organizational founding and the performance of emerging businesses although much of this research has focused on the characteristics of the business founder there is only mixed support for relationships between founders characteristics and venture performance begley and boyd 1987 gartner 1988 low and macmillan 1988 sexton and bowman 1984 this study is based on research that identifies the entrepreneurial managerial and technical functional functions as three roles that founders must competently enact in order to be successful hofer and sandberg 1987 mintzberg and waters 1982 pavett and lau 1983 schein 1987 effective performance in the entrepreneurial role requires the founder to have the ability to recognize business opportunities and the drive to see firm creation through to fruition hofer and sandberg 1987 timmons et al 1987 effective execution of the managerial role requires conceptual interpersonal and political competence pavett and lau 1983 to be competent in the technical functional role founders must be able to use the tools or procedures required in their specialized field pavett and lau 1983 to measure the competencies necessary for effectiveness in the entrepreneurial managerial and technical functional roles we developed a questionnaire to allow founders to provide self evaluations of their competencies the results provide strong evidence for the reliability of measurement and the validity of the constructs the relationships revealed in this study suggest some preliminary recommendations for potential entrepreneurs career counselors and educators the number of businesses previously initiated and the years spent as an owner manager do not appear to be strongly related to the performance of the venture however the most successful entrepreneurs are strongly convinced of their ability to recognize business opportunity they believe that they have the drive to see the venture through to fruition and report that they subjugate outside interests to the demands of their businesses thus although self assessed proficiency in the entrepreneurial function does not appear to be contingent on the length of previous experience as a founder it does appear to be a necessary component in the development of high performance companies founders of the most successful firms also gave themselves high ratings on the abilities associated with effective performance in the managerial role they had high self evaluation scores on the items measuring organizational and interpersonal skills competence in the managerial role appears to be enhanced by business education and the years of general managerial experience the founders of highly successful firms also evaluated their technical skills highly they believed they were experts in their fields and could use the specialized tools and procedures to produce high quality products and services thus the results indicate that the most successful founders those whose firms show higher levels of growth and earnings rate themselves as competent in the entrepreneurial managerial and technical functional roles they see themselves as competent generalists and in a result that is most gratifying for those in higher education it appears that a business education and experience in general managerial positions lays the ground work for a successful entrepreneurial career

technological regimes and schumpeterian patterns of innovation this paper proposes that the specific pattern of innovative activities in an industry can be explained as the outcome of different technological learning regimes a technological regime is defined by the particular combination of technological opportunities appropriability of innovations cumulativeness of technical advances and properties of the knowledge base building upon the distinction between schumpeter mark i and schumpeter mark ii industries this paper provides empirical estimates of the relationships between indicators of the schumpeterian patterns of innovation concentration of innovative activities stability in the hierarchy of innovators and importance of new innovators and indicators of the variables defining technological regimes

top managerial prestige and organizational bankruptcy this paper extends earlier work on an alternative view of bankruptcy suggesting that bankruptcy occurs when creditors withdraw then support from a firm s top management team it further proposes that support for the top team depends upon the team s prestige five characteristics measuring the relative status of top teams were tested for their association with bankruptcy three of the characteristics focused on items commonly associated with membership in economic elites elite educational backgrounds board memberships and previous employment as officers in other corporations the fourth and fifth characteristics focused on membership in political and military elites the results indicated that political and board connections were negatively associated with bankruptcy in the year of failure even when financial factors and cooptive board linkages were controlled the results also showed that failing firms attempted to improve their managerial prestige three to four years before they failed they were how

outside enterpreneurial capital this article investigates factors that affect rejection rates in applications for outside finance among different types of investors banks venture capital funds leasing firms factoring firms trade customers and suppliers partners and working shareholders private individuals and other sources taking into account the non randomness in a firm s decision to seek outside finance the data support the traditional pecking order theory further the data indicate that firms seeking capital are typically able to secure their requisite financing from at least one of the different available sources however external finance is often not available in the form that a firm would like this article engages with four interrelated empirical questions first what are the characteristics of privately held entrepreneurial firms that seek external outside finance and what drives the request for capital from the different potential sources of external finance banks venture capitalists private individuals leasing factoring suppliers customers partners working shareholders among other sources second what are the factors that lead to rejection or acceptance of requests for external finance given this non randomness in the types of firms that seek external finance in the spirit of heckman 1976 1979 third as various forms of financing are far from being perfect substitutes are there differences in the ability of firms to obtain capital from the different available sources fourth can firms obtain all of their desired capital from the different available sources even if it is not in the form they would like it is widely recognised that the decision to seek external finance and the type of financing sought is related to information asymmetries faced by investors regarding the entrepreneurial firm s quality see for example jensen and meckling 1976 1 where

simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity i study a simple widely applicable approach to handling the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear unobserved effects models rather than attempting to obtain the joint distribution of all outcomes of the endogenous variables i propose finding the distribution conditional on the initial value and the observed history of strictly exogenous explanatory variables the approach is flexible and results in simple estimation strategies for at least three leading dynamic nonlinear models probit tobit and poisson regression i treat the general problem of estimating average partial effects and show that simple estimators exist for important special cases copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

r d and internal finance a panel study of small firms in high tech industries since joseph schumpeter economists have argued that internal finance should be an important determinant of r d expenditures yet almost without exception previous empirical studies have not found evidence of such a relation using newly available data the authors investigate this puzzle with a panel of 179 small firms in high tech industries under each estimation strategy they employ the authors find an economically large and statistically significant relationship between r d investment and internal finance their results are consistent with the view that because of capital market imperfections the flow of internal finance is the principal determinant of the rate at which small high tech firms acquire technology through r d copyright 1994 by mit press

is the growth of small firms constrained by internal finance this paper examines the long standing theory that the growth of small firms is often constrained by the quantity of internal finance under plausible assumptions when financing constraints are binding an additional dollar of internal finance should generate slightly more than an additional dollar of growth in assets this quantitative prediction should not hold for the relatively small number of firms which access external equity we test these predictions with a panel of more than 1 600 small firms and find that the growth of most firms is constrained by internal finance our results have implications for several different research literatures including models of firm growth

the bayesian foundations of solution concepts of games abstract we transform a noncooperative game into a bayesian decision problem for each player where the uncertainty faced by a player is the strategy choices of the other players the priors of other players on the choice of other players the priors over priors and so on we provide a complete characterization between the extent of knowledge about the rationality of players and their ability to successively eliminate strategies which are not best responses this paper therefore provides the informational foundations of iteratively undominated strategies and rationalizable strategic behavior b d bernheim econometrica 52 1984 1007 1028 d pearce econometrica 52 1984 1029 1050 sufficient conditions are also found for nash equilibrium behavior and a result akin to r j aumann econometrica 55 1987 1 18 on correlated equilibria is derived with different hypotheses

rationalizable strategic behavior the notion of equilibrium proposed by nash 19 has come to play a dominant role in economic applications of noncooperative games while analyses of nash equilibria have unquestionably contributed to our understanding of economic behavior it would be unreasonably optimistic to maintain that nash solved the problem of noncooperative strategic choice there is a small literature beginning with ellsberg 6 and a much larger oral tradition which argues that nash behavior is neither a necessary consequence of rationality nor a reasonable empirical proposition in this paper i take the view that although there may be various reasons why an agent might select a nash strategy the notion of an equilibrium has little intrinsic appeal within a strategic context when an agent reaches a decision in ignorance of the strategies adopted by other players rationality consists of making a choice which is justifiable by an internally consistent system of beliefs rather than one which is optimal post hoc this point of view is not original indeed most serious justifications of the nash hypothesis embrace such an approach arguing that agents will expect the game to yield a nash outcome and consequently will choose their equilibrium strategies nevertheless when we think in terms of maximizing utility subject to expectations rather than realizations it becomes clear that the nash hypothesis far from being a consequence of rationality arises from certain restrictions on agents expectations which may or may not be plausible depending upon the game being played we are then quite naturally led to ask are there any restrictions of individuals expectations and hence choices which are required by rationality alone rather than by subjective plausibility this paper is concerned with defining justifying characterizing and refining a criterion for rational strategic choice which i label rationalizability

endogenous financial constraints and innovation we investigate which indicators of a firm s innovation activities are associated with financial constraints and analyze the nature and direction of causal links between innovation and financial constraints by estimating simultaneous bivariate probit models on data from the uk innovation surveys we show that among innovation inputs research and development r d activity increases the likelihood that firms face financial constraints among innovation outputs only new to market products generate financial constraints reverse effects on innovation appear limited to external r d

minimax regret strategies for bargaining over several variables for the sealed bid mechanism for bilateral bargaining we explore models in which each player bids so as to minimize his maximum regret here regret is defined as the difference between the profit the player could have made with the wisdom of hindsight and the profit he actually made we study bargaining over both price and quantity as well as over more general sets of bargaining alternatives with complete and incomplete information in each case there is a minimax regret strategy that is linear in the true value or cost and the minimax regret is not unacceptably large journal qf economic literature classification numbers 022 026

rationalizable strategic behavior and the problem of perfection this paper explores the fundamental problem of what can be inferred about the outcome of a noncooperative game from the rationality of the players and from the information they possess the answer is summarized in a solution concept called rationalizability strategy profiles that are rationalizable are not always nash equilibria conversely the information in an extensive form game often allows certain unreasonable nash equilibria to be excluded from the set of rationalizable profiles a stronger form of rationalizability is appropriate if players are known to be not merely rational but also cautious what constitutes rational behavior in a noncooperative strategic situation this paper explores the issue in the context of a wide class of finite noncooperative games in extensive form the traditional answer relies heavily upon the idea of nash equilibrium nash 17 the position developed here however is that as a criterion for judging a profile of strategies to be reasonable choices for players in a game the nash equilibrium property is neither necessary nor sufficient some nash equilibria are intuitively unreasonable and not all reasonable strategy profiles are nash equilibria the fact that a nash equilibrium can be intuitively unattractive is well known the equilibrium may be imperfect introduced into the literature by selten 20 the idea of imperfect equilibria has prompted game theorists to search for a narrower definition of equilibrium while this research some of which will be discussed here has been extremely instructive it remains inconclusive theorists often agree about what should happen in particular games but to capture this intuition in a general solution concept has proved to be very difficult if this paper is successful it should make some progress in that direction the other side of the coin has received less scrutiny can all non nash profiles really be excluded on logical grounds i believe not the standard justifications for considering only nash profiles are circular in nature or make gratuitous assumptions about players decision criteria or beliefs the following discussion of these points is extremely brief due to space constraints more detailed arguments may be found in pearce 18

the introduction of a non traditional and aggressive approach to banking the risks of hubris this study integrates institutional theory and social cognitive theory to describe how peripheral organizations can accidentally bring about radical change even in highly institutionalized and change resistant fields the empirical context is the field of banking in ireland 1995 2001 where a peripheral bank triggered a shift away from traditionally conservative and risk averse banking values toward aggressive values of entrepreneurial risk taking the introduction of a new approach to banking was attributed to three factors 1 a benevolent environment which made this innovation feasible and timely 2 the state of the field which had gaps that could be addressed through specialization and 3 prior successes which created hubris in the senior managers thereby increasing the pace and scope of adoption of this approach eventually what started as a specialized and entrepreneurial approach led to the spread of a risky approach to banking across the entire field the study highlights the risks of hubris in that media praise and early successes can increase the pace of adoption of innovations which offer short term gains but are detrimental in the long term

admissibility in games suppose that each player in a game is rational each player thinks the other players are rational and so on also suppose that rationality is taken to incorporate an admissibility requirement that is the avoidance of weakly dominated strategies which strategies can be played we provide an epistemic framework in which to address this question specifically we formulate conditions of rationality and mth order assumption of rationality rmar and rationality and common assumption of rationality rcar we show that i rcar is characterized by a solution concept we call a self admissible set ii in a complete type structure rmar is characterized by the set of strategies that survive m 1 rounds of elimination of inadmissible strategies iii under certain conditions rcar is impossible in a complete structure

institutional change in large law firms a resource dependency and institutional perspective we integrate resource dependency and institutional theory to argue that resource scarcity drives and legitimacy enables institutional change building on a historical account we examine the sources and timing of innovation departing from standard human resource practices using event history analysis of over 200 principal offices of large law firms offices with human resource scarcity innovated to acquire alternative resources highly prestigious offices had the legitimacy to be first or early adopters our findings highlight the value of looking to the resource side and to the notion of legitimacy in building an institutional theory of change

auctions with anticipated regret theory and experiment this paper demonstrates theoretically and experimentally that in first price auctions overbidding with respect to the risk neutral nash equilibrium might be driven from anticipated loser regret felt when bidders lose at an affordable price different information structures are created to elicit regret bidders know they will learn the winning bid if they lose loser regret condition or the second highest bid if they win winner regret condition or they will receive no feedback regarding the other bids bidders in loser regret condition anticipated regret and significantly overbid however bidders in the winner regret condition did not anticipate regret jel d44

anomalous behavior in a traveler s dilemma the notion of a nash equilibrium has joined supply and demand as one of the two or three techniques that economists instinctively try to use first in the analysis of economic interactions moreover the nash equilibrium and closely related game theoretic concepts are being widely applied in other social sciences and even in biology where evolutionary stability often selects a subset of the nash equilibria many people are uneasy about the stark predictions of the nash equilibrium in some contexts where the extreme rationality assumptions seem implausible kaushik basu s 1994 traveler s dilemma is a particularly convincing example of a case where the unrelenting logic of game theory is at odds with intuitive notions about human behavior the story associated with the dilemma is that two travelers purchase identical antiques while on a tropical vacation their luggage is lost on the return trip and the airline asks them to make independent claims for compensation in anticipation of excessive claims the airline representative announces

cognition capabilities and incentives assessing firm response to the fiber optic revolution this study examines how ceo cognition organizational capabilities and organizational incentives interacted to shape firm strategy during the fiber optic revolution i tested for these factors as

games of perfect information predatory pricing and the chain store paradox the thesis of this paper is that finite noncooperative games possessing both complete and perfect information ought to be treated like one player decision problems that is players ought to assign at every move subjective probabilities to every subsequent choice in the game and ought to make decisions via backward induction this view is in contrast with the gametheoretic approach of nash equilibrium after expanding on this view for games in the abstract in sections 2 and 3 attention is turned in section 4 to an example due to reinhard selten called the chain store paradox which possesses the flavor of a situation involving a predatory pricing monopolist it is argued that for the chain store game the decision analytic approach leads under certain assumptions to more realistic outcomes than the standard nash equilibrium approach

dynamic capabilities what are they this paper focuses on dynamic capabilities and more generally the resource based view of the firm we argue that dynamic capabilities are a set of specific and identifiable processes such as product development strategic decision making and alliancing they are neither vague nor tautological although dynamic capabilities are idiosyncratic in their details and path dependent in their emergence they have significant commonalities across firms popularly termed best practice this suggests that they are more homogeneous fungible equifinal and substitutable than is usually assumed in moderately dynamic markets dynamic capabilities resemble the traditional conception of routines they are detailed analytic stable processes with predictable outcomes in contrast in high velocity markets they are simple highly experiential and fragile processes with unpredictable outcomes finally well known learning mechanisms guide the evolution of dynamic capabilities in moderately dynamic markets the evolutionary emphasis is on variation in high velocity markets it is on selection at the level of rbv we conclude that traditional rbv misidentifies the locus of long term competitive advantage in dynamic markets overemphasizes the strategic logic of leverage and reaches a boundary condition in high velocity markets copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

financing constraints and inventory investment a comparative study with high frequency panel data this study provides new evidence of the importance of financing constraints for explaining the dramatic cycles in inventory investment we compare the empirical performance of different financial variables coverage ratio cash stocks and cash flow used in previous research to test for the presence of financing constraints the comparison is undertaken in a common framework with an identical sample and high frequency quarterly firm panel data cash flow is much more successful than cash stocks or coverage in explaining the facts about inventory investment across firm size different inventory cycles and different manufacturing sectors

r d and credit rationing in smes we study the effects of credit rationing on research and development r d investment using survey and accounting data on a large representative sample of manufacturing small and medium sized enterprises smes our econometric model accounts for the endogeneity of our credit rationing indicator and employs an innovative theory based identification strategy we find that credit rationing has a significantly negative effect on both the probability to set up r d activities and on the level of r d spending conditioned on the r d decision but the overall estimated reduction in r d spending is largely to be associated with the first effect jel g21 d82 032 c35 i introduction long run economic growth and welfare resides on the production of new knowledge and its implementation into new or improved products or processes for this reason identification evaluation and correction of the detrimental effects of potential underinvestment in research and development r d activities have a prominent place in the policy agendas of all industrialized countries this is particularly the case in europe where since the start of the recent economic crisis the policy debate has been focused on the role of capital market imperfections as they increase the cost of r d when firms do not have sufficient internal funds to finance it the credit crunch that is the lack of availability or reduction in supply of credit to businesses from traditional financial institutions is said to reduce firms investment in innovative activities and growth prospects however despite its theoretical appeal and in contrast with the proven sensitivity of fixed capital investment to financing constraints evidence on the susceptibility of r d investment to financial frictions and in particular to credit rationing is still mixed and inconclusive three explanations have been put forward for the lack of robust evidence first it is claimed that the variety in the results reflects the contrast between theoretical explanations based on asymmetric information arguments suggesting a sensitivity of r d to financing constraints potentially higher than that of ordinary investment and the characteristics of r d as a long term investment with high adjustment costs suggesting rather the opposite 1 second existing evidence is based almost exclusively on the sensitivity of firm level r d spending to the availability of internal finance typically measured through cash flow which is however known to be problematic in its ability to proxy for financing constraints kaplan and zingales 1997 2000 third recent contributions have stressed the difficulty in identifying the role of financing constraint using standard investment models when firms have access to multiple channels for raising external financial resources and managing buffer stocks of liquidity brown martinsson and petersen 2011 in this study we use firm level data on r d investment and credit constraints to measure the detrimental effect of credit rationing on r d investment dealing with all the above specified issues first we claim that the ambiguity originated by information problems versus the nature of r d as a long term investment might be resolved if we distinguish between the probability of r d investment the r d participation decision and the size of r d investment once the decision to invest has been taken the amount of r d spending decision we therefore study the effect of credit rationing on the decision to do r d and on the amount of r d investment our hypothesis is that credit rationing displays a stronger effect on the first decision compared with the latter while this expectation might seem obvious to our knowledge econometric analyses on the topic have not yet addressed or proven the differential impact of credit rationing on the participation and amount decisions respectively

regret aversion and opportunity dependence this paper provides an axiomatic model of decision making under uncertainty in which the decision maker is driven by anticipated ex post regrets our model allows both regret aversion and likelihood judgement over states to coexist also we characterize two special cases minimax regret with multiple priors that generalizes savage s minimax regret and a smooth model of regret aversion

ceo hubris and firm risk taking in china the moderating role of managerial discretion this study linked ceo hubris to firm risk taking and examined the moderating role of managerial discretion in this relationship drawing on upper echelons theory and behavioral decision theory we

investment cash flow sensitivities are useful a comment on kaplan and zingales arecent paper in this journal by kaplan and zingales reexamines a subset of erms from work of fazzari hubbard and petersen and criticizes the usefulness of investment cash eow sensitivities for detecting enancing constraints we show that the kaplan and zingales theoretical model fails to capture the approach employed in the literature and thus does not provide an effective critique moreover we describe why their empirical classiecation system is eawed in identifying both whether erms are constrained and the relative degree of constraints across erm groups we conclude that their results do not support their conclusions about the usefulness of investment cash eow sensitivities in a recent paper in this journal kaplan and zingales 1997 hereinafter kz argue that investment cash eow sensitivities do not provide useful evidence about the presence of enancing constraints because kz use a subset of the same erms and the same regressions as fazzari hubbard and petersen 1988 hereinafter fhp and claim page 176 that fhp can legitimately be considered the parent of all papers in this literature it is appropriate that we respond based on a simple theoretical model kz reach the provocative conclusion page 211 that the investment cash eow sensitivity criterion as a measure of enancial constraints is not well grounded in theory in section i we show that the kz model does not capture the theoretical approach employed in fhp and many subsequent studies most of the kz paper attempts to show that empirical investment cash eow sensitivities do not increase monotonically with the degree of enancing constraints within the 49 low dividend erms from the fhp sample in section ii we explain why the kz classiecation of the degree of constraints is eawed in identifying both whether or not erms are constrained absolute constraints as well as the relative degree of constraints across erms as a result we argue in section iii that there is no expected ex ante pattern for the

the importance of equity finance for r d activity this article analyzes the importance of equity finance for the r d activity of small and medium sized enterprises we use information on almost 6 000 german smes from a company survey using the intensity of banking competition at the district level as an instrument to control for endogeneity we find that a higher equity ratio is conducive to a higher r d intensity owners may only start r d activities if they have the financial resources to sustain them until successful completion we find a larger influence of the equity ratio for young companies equity may be more important for young companies which have to rely on the original equity investment of their owners since they have not yet accumulated retained earnings and can rely less on bank financing