explaining male wage inequality in the philippines non parametric and semiparametric approaches the study examines the roles of experience and education in explaining the increase in wage inequality among philippine male workers between 1988 and 1995 it also provides a methodological approach to the analysis of wage inequality by combining non parametric methods with semiparametric additive models using the variance accounting framework non parametric density estimators allow flexibility in dealing with distributional inference while additive models yield marginal effects estimates under minimal assumptions on the functional specification of the wage schooling and wage experience relationships the results show that much of the inequality increase from 1988 to 1995 was caused by greater variabilities in returns to schooling and experience among 1995 workers the rise of the p90 p10 percentile ratio was caused by greater return variabilities on schooling and experience in the 90th percentile

impact of income growth and economic reform on nutrition availability in urban china 1986 2000 abstract urban china has experienced rapid income growth over the past 20 years however nutrition availability for the poor declined in the 1990s does this imply a zero or negative income elasticity using a large representative urban sample of repeated cross sectional data for the period 1986 2000 we find that income elasticities of calorie availability are far from zero and the lower the income level the higher the income elasticity the main reason for the reduction in calorie availability in the early 1990s was a sharp increase in food prices afterward calorie availability for the above medium income groups stabilized and then increased for the low income groups calorie availability continued to decline which may be related to the large scale social welfare reform that increased households need to pay for nonfood necessities such as education medical and housing expenses

modeling conditional yield densities given the increasing interest in agricultural risk many have sought improved methods to characterize conditional crop yield densities while most have postulated the beta as a flexible alternative to the normal others have chosen nonparametric methods unfortunately yield data tends not to be sufficiently abundant to invalidate many reasonable parametric models this is problematic because conclusions from economic analyses which require estimated conditional yield densities tend not to be invariant to the modeling assumption we propose a semiparametric estimator that because of its theoretical properties and our simulation results enables one to empirically proceed with a higher degree of confidence copyright 2003 oxford university press

snow removal auctions in montreal costs informational rents and procurement management using semiparametric and nonparametric estimation techniques we infer cost distributions and informational rents from 457 snow removal contracts o ered for tender by the city of montreal our results are compatible with standard received theory of competitive auctions there is a positive correlation between costs and bids and rents increase with the variance of costs bids and costs have decreased over the sample period while rents remained relatively constant the city deserves credit for these results as it has succeeded in exploiting economies of scale and triggering innovations while maintaining competition further it has been successful in adjusting its reserve prices to keep up with the decreasing cost of snow removal

the roles of risk and ambiguity in technology adoption we study the impacts of risk and ambiguity aversion on the adoption of new technologies specifically genetically modified gm corn and soy seeds we conduct experiments measuring risk and ambiguity aversion with midwestern grain farmers risk aversion has only a small impact on the timing of adoption of gm soy while ambiguity aversion has a large impact speeding up farmer adoption of gm corn we hypothesize that this unusual finding is due to the fact that gm corn often contains an insect resistance trait which reduces the ambiguity of pest damages for adopters gm soy never contains this insect resistance trait this highlights the importance of distinguishing between risk and ambiguity when studying the effects of aversion to uncertainty on adoption of new technologies

the growth of family farms in hungary the article investigates the validity of gibrat s law for hungarian family farms using fadn data collected between 2001 and 2007 gibrat s law states that the growth rate of firms will be independent of their initial size regression results allow us to reject gibrat s law for all quantiles evidence suggests that smaller farms tend to grow faster than larger ones results do not support the hypothesis of disappearing middle in hungarian agriculture we study a number of socio economic factors that can help to explain farm growth we find that total subsidies received by a farm and the farm operator s age are the most significant factors correlated with farm growth

empirical studies of financial innovation lots of talk little action this paper reviews the extant empirical studies of financial innovation adopting broad criteria we could find only somewhat more than two dozen studies and since some financial innovations are examined by more than one study they cover only seventeen phenomena especially striking is the fact that only two studies offer tests of the broad hypotheses concerning the environmental conditions spurring financial innovation e g regulation taxes unstable macroeconomic conditions and ripe technologies that have been advanced in descriptive articles we offer some tentative conjectures as to why empirical studies of financial innovation are comparatively rare among our suggested culprits is an absence of accessible data we urge financial regulators to undertake more surveys of financial innovation and to make the survey data more available to researchers

how well do children insure parents against low retirement income an analysis using survey data from urban china abstract as population aging becomes more pronounced in the developing world the uneven implementation of social safety nets raises important questions as to how well traditional family based mechanisms insure elderly incomes when pension systems fail using a unique dataset from a recent household survey conducted in urban china we find evidence that private transfers respond to low household income of retired workers when income falls below the poverty line this finding is consistent with an altruistic motive for transfers at low levels of household income at the same time however the transfer response to elderly pre transfer income is not sufficient to fully cover shortfalls that arise with severe pension arrears and low retirement income

citizen coproduction and efficient public good provision theory and evidence from local public libraries abstract in both public administration and economics efficiency is brought forward as an important criterion for evaluating administrative actions clearly its value as an assessment principle depends on our ability to adequately measure efficiency this article argues that citizen s coproduction in public services requires a careful reassessment of how we approach the measurement of productive efficiency in public service delivery theoretically we illustrate that using observable outcomes e g library circulation school results health outcomes fires extinguished and crimes solved as output indicators is inappropriate and leads to biased estimates of public service providers productive efficiency this bias arises because citizens co determine final outputs leaving them at least partly beyond the service providers control empirically we find supportive evidence of both the existence and importance of such demand induced bias

marginal income tax rates in the united states a non parametric approach abstract the objective of this paper is to estimate both the u s federal marginal income tax rate and the state and local marginal income tax rates we use the non parametric regression method and data on income and tax extracted from u s individual tax model files for the period 1985 1995 the flexibility of the non parametric approach and the information at the individual level enable us to construct a more reliable time series of the average federal marginal income tax rates and that of the average state and local marginal income tax rates our results suggest that the average federal marginal income tax rate varies from 18 2 to 21 8 and the average state and local marginal income tax rate varies from 4 7 to 5 6 we also find that the state and local income tax accounts for roughly 18 of the total income taxes paid during 1985 1995 moreover our analysis shows that stephenson journal of monetary economics 41 1998 pp 389 409 provides the most consistent tax rate series for use in applications that require estimates of tax rates for years prior to 1985

financial dependence and growth diminishing returns to improvement in financial development this paper examines how much financial development facilitates economic growth by nonparametrically estimating the effect of financial development on reducing the costs of external finance to firms the data reveal substantial evidence of diminishing returns to improvement in financial development

using semiparametric models to study nutrition improvement and dietary change with different indices the case of china in company with rapid economic growth chinese consumers have seen a remarkable nutrition improvement and a dramatic dietary change this article investigates the driving forces behind these changes with use of the china health and nutrition survey chns data this paper first proposes 10 different indices to measure nutrition improvement and dietary change from different perspectives and then adopts semiparametric panel data models to capture the complicated nonlinear relationship between these nutrition indices and income growth while controlling for other variables parametrically this enables us to directly predict the nutrition improvement and dietary change at different income levels from different aspects this paper particularly finds that nutrition improvement and dietary change will continue in china but will slow down in the future with further income growth

the effects of shifts in a return distribution on optimal portfolios when the distribution of the returns of a risky asset undergoes a stochastically dominating shift a risk averse investor may not necessarily increase the investment in that asset this paper provides restrictions on the investor s utility function that are necessary and sufficient for a dominating shift to bring about no decrease in the investment in the respective asset if there are two risky assets in the portfolio these conditions are also necessary if there are n 2 assets and are necessary and sufficient if the utility function exhibits constant absolute risk aversion copyright 1990 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

insurance moral hazard and chemical use in agriculture this paper examines how crop insurance affects corn farmers fertilizer and pesticide use in the u s midwest crop insurance might be expected to affect chemical use because of moral hazard insured farmers may undertake riskier production than do uninsured farmers results suggest that insurance exerts considerable influence on corn farmers chemical use decisions those purchasing insurance applied significantly more nitrogen per acre 19 spent more on pesticides 21 and treated more acreage with both herbicides and insecticides 7 and 63 than did those not purchasing insurance these results suggest that both fertilizer and pesticides may be risk increasing inputs

taxes and employment subsidies in optimal redistribution programs this paper explores how to optimally set taxes and transfers when taxation authorities 1 are uninformed about individuals value of time in both market and non market activities and 2 can observe both market income and time allocated to market employment we show that optimal redistribution in this environment involves distorting market employment upwards for low wage individuals through decreasing wage contingent employment subsidies and distorting employment downwards for high wage individuals through positive and increasing marginal income tax rates in particular we show that whether a person is taxed or subsidized depends primarily on his wage with the optimal program involving a cut off wage whereby workers above the cutoff are taxed as they increase their income while workers earning a wage below the cutoff receive an income supplement as they increase their income finally we show that the optimal program transfers zero income to individuals who choose not to work

a nonparametric approach to identifying latent relationships in hierarchical models this paper provides a method for nonparametrically modeling the relationship between consumer preference for product features such as reliability or durability and covariates that describe consumers and how they use the product this relationship is of interest to firms designing and delivering products to a market because the extent to which consumers are sensitive to particular features determines the potential profitability of product offerings and affects decisions relating to appropriate distribution outlets and advertising strategies the successful identification of these relationships also aids in efficiently targeting marketing activities to specific segments of the consumer population the relationship between consumer preference for product features and observable covariates is important but is typically unknown in addition these relationships are often deeply embedded in a model hierarchy and are not observed directly for example in models of household choice the observed outcomes are multinomial with probabilities driven by latent utilities or values that consumers place on the choice alternatives these utilities are in turn a function of characteristics such as price and product features which are differentially valued of primary interest is the relationship between consumer sensitivity to product characteristics and readily observed covariates such as household demographics or aspects of product usage because the relationships of interest are not directly observed it is difficult to draw inferences about them without formal statistical models this paper presents a three level hierarchical bayes model for modeling binary consumer preferences as a function of observable covariates the hierarchical model nonparametrically estimates the relationships between consumer preferences for product features and the covariates without assuming a specific functional form a nonparametric model is particularly useful in the exploratory analysis of consumer data in which the primary purpose of the analysis is to generate further questions rather than provide specific answers to well posed questions this type of analysis is frequently encountered in marketing where a series of studies are commissioned to better understand the nature of demand the first level of the hierarchy in the bayesian model relates the binary consumer choice to the sensitivities of the consumer to product attributes such as brand name price reliability and durability the second level of the hierarchy models the heterogeneity across consumers using functions that relate attribute sensitivities to observable covariates this level of the hierarchy also allows each respondent to have unique demand coefficients by introducing random effect components the third level of the hierarchy specifies a smoothness prior for each of the unknown functions used in the second level the approach is flexible and works well both when the unknown function can be closely approximated by a linear function and when it cannot be a bayesian model selection technique is used to determine which functions can be modeled using a linear function and which ones should be modeled nonparametrically to provide the necessary flexibility to estimate the function accurately the proposed methodology is illustrated using data from a survey of consumer preferences for features of marine outboard engines that was collected as part of a consulting project our analysis focuses on measuring consumer preferences for engine features and their relationships to two variables related to boat length and engine size consumer preferences for engine features were obtained through a national survey conducted over the telephone preferences were elicited by means of a pairwise evaluation in which respondents chose between two engines that were identical in every respect except for two engine features the methodology can be modified to allow for more complex comparisons such as conjoint data collected in full profiles the application of a bayesian model selection procedure indicates that 4 of the 28 covariate relationships in the model are nonlinear while the other 24 are linear the preferences associated with these four functions are involved in 56 of the pairwise comparisons in the study therefore in practice if the nonlinear functions are not properly estimated there is the potential to draw misleading inferences regarding 56 of the pairwise choices firms can use the estimates of the functions relating preferences to covariates in a number of ways first they can use the covariates to determine the total number of consumers who have high demand for a particular product feature and then they can target communication efforts to those individuals alternatively the empirical results can be used as a basis of subsequent analysis to obtain a more complete characterization of a market segment

distributional effects of general population prescription drug programs in canada canadian household prescription drug expenditures are studied using the statistics canada family expenditure survey masterfiles for periods that include the introduction of provincial general population prescription drug programs budget shares for non senior households are examined over time using non parametric regres sion parametric difference in difference techniques and quantile regression methods the evidence suggests that while program effects are muted when there are high deductibles a non senior prescription drug subsidy is more redistributive than an equal cost proportional income transfer in part because of differential private health insurance coverage by income this is in contrast to previous evidence on canadian senior prescription drug subsidies jel classification 118 j42

the effects of the gender of children on expenditure patterns in rural china a semiparametric analysis we analyse expenditure patterns for rural china focusing on differences between families with boys and girls the sample includes more than 5000 nuclear families from 19 chinese provinces following the existing literature we estimate engel curves for food and for alcohol a typical adult good we use a flexible partially linear specification and allow for endogeneity of total expenditures the results are similar to those of other studies not providing much evidence of gender differentials we then focus on the decision to send a child to school and on the budget share spent on educational goods using both parametric and semiparametric estimates we find evidence that boys are more often sent to school and that expenditures on a boy that goes to school are larger than for a school going girl of the same age copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

urbanization and co2 emissions a semi parametric panel data analysis this paper investigates the relationship between urbanization and co2 emissions in a sample of 20 emerging countries over the period 1992 2008 using the semi parametric panel data model with fixed effects proposed by baltagi and li 2002 we find little evidence in support of an inverted u curve and thus the kuznets hypothesis is not confirmed by our analysis our findings shed new light on the urbanization co2 emissions nexus

average crop revenue election a revenue based alternative to price based commodity payment programs this article develops a stochastic model of the average crop revenue election acre program which offers revenue based commodity payments under the 2008 farm act our analysis shows that adding acre revenue payments to gross revenue reduces downside revenue risk for corn wheat and soybean farmers in 2009 on average by 16 21 and 23 respectively results indicate that farms with higher expected yields and lower variance of yields tend to benefit the most from acre integrating federal crop insurance with acre lowers insurance premiums from 10 to 40 depending on the crop and location

risk and the value of bt corn a conceptual model is developed to evaluate the effect of bt corn on risk results highlight the importance of distinguishing between marginal and aggregate risk effects and demonstrate that the effect of bt corn on risk depends crucially on the price paid for the technology empirical results show that depending on the price bt corn can be marginally risk increasing or decreasing and can either increase or decrease corn acreage also depending on the price bt corn can provide a risk benefit to farmers even when bt corn is risk increasing bt corn is genetically engineered to produce a protein found in the soil bacterium bacillus thuringiensis bt the protein is toxic to lepidopterous insects such as the european

non welfarist optimal taxation and behavioral public economics research in behavioral economics has uncovered the widespread phenomenon of people making decisions against their own good intentions in these situations the government might want to intervene indeed individuals might want the government to intervene to induce behavior that is closer to what individuals wish they were doing the analysis of such corrective interventions through taxes and subsidies might be called behavioral public economics however such analysis where the government has an objective function that is different from that of individuals is not new in public economics in these cases the government is said to be non welfarist in its objectives and there is a long tradition of nonwelfarist welfare economics especially the analysis of optimal taxation and subsidy policy where the outcomes of individual behavior are evaluated using a preference function different from the one that generated the outcomes the object of this paper is to first of all present a unified view of the non welfarist optimal taxation literature and secondly to present behavioral public economics as a natural special case of this general framework

the costs and benefits of refuge requirements the case of bt cotton abstract refuge requirements have been the primary regulatory tool to delay pest resistance to bt crops this paper presents a simple method to estimate the annual cost of refuges to producers applying it to bt cotton it also examines broader welfare impacts estimating how bt cotton acreage restrictions affect producer surplus consumer surplus seed supplier profits and commodity program outlays the implications of grower adoption behavior partial adoption aggregate adoption and refuge choice for regulatory costs are examined empirical examples illustrate how providing multiple refuge options significantly reduces regulatory costs

testing day s conjecture that more nitrogen decreases crop yield skewness whilecontroversysurroundsskewnessattributesoftypicalyielddistributions abetterunderstandingis importantforagriculturalpolicyassessmentandforcrop insuranceratesetting day 1965 conjectured that crop yield skewness declines with an increase in nitrogen use at low levels but not at higher levels employing four corn yield experimental plot datasets we investigate the conjecture by introducing a a flexible bayesian extension of the just pope technology to incorporate skewness and b a quantilebased measure of skewness shift bayesian estimation provides strong evidence in favor of negative skewnessatcommercialnitrogenratesandforday sconjecture therewasweakerevidenceinfavorof positively skewed cotton yield and little evidence in favor of the conjecture the results are confirmed by the quantile based measure we also find evidence that skewness becomes more negative upon moving from corn after corn to corn after soybean

fair income tax fairness is a key concept in redistribution issues in this paper we study how particular requirements of fairness can shed light on the design of the optimal income tax schedule we consider a population of heterogeneous individuals or households who differ in two respects first they have unequal skills and therefore unequal earning abilities second they differ in terms of their preferences about consumption and leisure and as a consequence typically make different labour time choices both kinds of differences generate income inequalities we study how to justify and compute a redistribution income tax in this context redistribution through an income tax usually entails distortions of incentives but the resulting efficiency loss has to be weighed against potential improvements in the fairness of the distribution of resources we address this efficiency equity trade off here by constructing social preferences which obey the standard pareto principle in addition to fairness conditions

a likelihood approach to estimating market equilibrium models this paper develops a new likelihood based method for the simultaneous estimation of structural demand and supply models for markets with differentiated products we specify an individual level discrete choice model of demand and derive the supply side assuming manufacturers compete in prices the proposed estimation method considers price endogeneity through simultaneous estimation of demand and supply allows for consumer heterogeneity and incorporates a pricing rule consistent with economic theory the basic idea behind the proposed estimation procedure is to simulate prices and choice probabilities by solving for the market equilibrium by repeating this many times we obtain an empirical distribution of equilibrium prices and probabilities the empirical distribution is then smoothed and used in a likelihood procedure to estimate the parameters of the model the advantage of this method is that it avoids the need to perform a transformation of variables if the tastes of consumers are independent across market periods our approach yields maximum likelihood estimates otherwise it yields consistent but not fully efficient partial likelihood estimates

optimal taxation when people do not maximize well being abstract i derive the optimal nonlinear income tax when individuals do not necessarily maximize their own well being this generates a corrective argument for taxation optimal marginal taxes are higher lower if individuals work too much too little from a well being point of view i allow for multidimensional heterogeneity and derive the optimal tax schedule in terms of measurable sufficient statistics one of these statistics measures the degree to which individuals fail to optimize their labor supply i empirically estimate this by using british life satisfaction data as a measure of well being i find that low income workers tend to work too little and high income workers too much providing a motive for lower marginal tax rates at the bottom and higher marginal tax rates at the top of the income distribution

do households prefer small school districts a natural experiment author affiliation h spencer banzhaf hsbanzhaf gsu edugarima bhalla gbhalla live unc edu acknowledgment we thank rajashri chakrabarti rob fleck jason fletcher john pepper jesse rothstein holger sieg david sjoquist todd sorensen christiana stoddard randall walsh anonymous referees and participants of a session at the 2006 southern economic association meetings and seminars at montana state university and the university of pittsburgh for valuable comments 1 introductionperennial discontent with the quality of public education in the united states is a constant motivation for new educational reforms one potential reform is to break up large urban school districts into smaller districts 1 this proposal emerges from two lines of logic first large districts may suffer from substantial diseconomies of scale a recent review of the evidence concludes that diseconomies may emerge in districts with as few as 15 000 students andrews duncombe and yinger 2002 see also barrow and rouse 2004 and duncombe miner and ruggiero 2005 by comparison the urban districts of new york city los angeles and chicago handle as many as 1 1 million 727 000 and 421 000 students respectively a second line of logic is that breaking up large school districts would provide more choice for households in particular the smaller districts may be differentiated horizontally with some emphasizing math others reading others specific extra curricular courses and so forth since smaller districts can respond better to parental input these differences can reflect local tastes additionally the new districts would have to compete with one another for students enhancing their incentive to improve their performance borland and howsen 1992 hoxby 2000 hanushek and rivkin 2003 sandstrom and bergstrom 2005 these reforms are subject to a market test following the logic of tiebout 1956 households should respond to exogenous changes in public goods by voting with their feet that is moving into improving communities and bidding up prices 2 consequently if households perceive that decentralizing large school districts is desirable for any of these reasons we would expect the ceteris paribus demand for housing to increase in school districts undergoing such reforms relative to nearby substitutes this article examines just such a market test studying the effect on local real estate markets surrounding the april 2000 breakup of the los angeles unified school district lausd into 11 subdistricts this breakup was only partial insofar as official authority remained vested in a single school board nevertheless the breakup delegated substantial power to a more local level creating 11 new superintendents and devolving authority over educational policy and curricula to the new subdistricts we employ a difference in differences hedonic methodology comparing changes in real estate prices before and after the breakup announcement within the lausd area to price changes in nearby districts our approach has three distinct advantages first the october 1999 announcement of the breakup plan was abrupt and surprising and was swiftly followed by official passage in april 2000 because the announcement was so abrupt and so well covered by the media we have an excellent proxy for households expectations and it is expectations after all that govern market behavior our proxies for expectations are based on the announcement date the implementation date and in some models an index of newspaper coverage second few of the benefits of the reform would be likely to spill over into other school districts making the lausd border a sharp boundary defining relevant control groups third the lausd area is not coextensive with the city of los angeles but rather includes some 24 cities this implies that any other potentially confounding political events over the period would affect real estate markets in only a portion of the lausd rather than the whole area a possibility that we can test

public versus private production and economies of scale the cost of producing the same good often differs substantially for public and private producers we investigate the effect of organization in a case where the production technology is simple the cleaning of danish schools three forms of organization are used decentral municipal central municipal or private for small schools the organizational form has little impact on cost for larger schools decentral municipal production is the most expensive on average centralization reduces costs by 5 while privatization reduces costs by 30 similar cost differences are reported in the literature for other cases but it is a new result that the cost differences are due to economies of scale public choice theories predict that cost differences are due to ownership or competition we find evidence that both theories help explain the cost differences

the effects of drug subsidies on out of pocket prescription drug expenditures by seniors regional evidence from canada abstract between 1970 and 1986 all canadian provinces introduced some version of a prescription drug subsidy for those aged 65 years or over and since 1986 all the provinces have increased copayments or deductibles to some degree employing a first order approximation to the welfare gains from a subsidy we find evidence that these subsidies have been less redistributive than an absolute per household cash transfer but slightly more redistributive than a transfer that would increase each household s income by the same percentage such evidence may have relevance for predicting the redistributive effects of a potential national prescription drug plan for seniors in the us

using repayment data to test across models of joint liability lending theories rationalising joint liability lending are rich in implications for repayment rates we exploit this fact to test four diverse models we show that the models repayment implications do not always coincide for example higher correlation of output and borrowers ability to act cooperatively can raise or lower repayment depending on the model data from thai borrowing groups suggest that repayment is affected negatively by the joint liability rate ceteris paribus and social ties and positively by the strength of local sanctions and correlated returns further the relative fit of the adverse selection versus informal sanctions models varies by region

understanding different migrant selection patterns in rural and urban mexico abstract the productive characteristics of migrating individuals emigrant selection affect welfare the empirical estimation of the degree of selection suffers from a lack of complete and nationally representative data this paper uses a dataset that addresses both issues the enet mexican labor survey which identifies emigrants right before they leave and allows a direct comparison to non migrants this dataset presents a relevant dichotomy it shows negative selection for urban mexican emigrants to the united states for the period 2000 2004 together with positive selection in mexican emigration out of rural mexico to the united states in the same period three theories that could explain this dichotomy are tested whereas higher skill prices in mexico than in the us are enough to explain half of the negative selection result in urban mexico its combination with network effects and wealth constraints fully accounts for positive selection in rural mexico

a new measure of horizontal equity in this paper we propose a new measure of horizontal equity that overcomes many of the shortcomings of previous proposed measures our starting point is the observation that a well behaved social welfare function need not evaluate global vertical equity differences in after tax income using the same weights it applies to local horizontal equity differences even though this constraint has been applied in the past following work on the structure of individual preferences we show that a social welfare function can imply different preferences toward horizontal and vertical equity adopting the general approach to the measurement of inequality developed by atkinson 1970 we use such a social welfare function to derive measures of inequality that are decomposable into components naturally interpreted as indices of horizontal and vertical equity in particular the former index measures deviations from the fundamental principle that equals be treated equally finally we apply our new measure to two tax return data sets evaluating the degree to which the horizontal equity of the us personal income tax has changed over time and how horizontal equity would be altered by one version of recent proposals to do away with the so called marriage penalty this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

budgetary and producer welfare effects of revenue insurance legislation passed in 1996 changed the way the u s federal government acts to reduce risks faced by u s crop products the authors compare the new alternative forms of revenue insurance to the 1990 deficiency payment program and to a no program alternative they estimate the effects of the alternative polices on the acreage allocations of a representative farm on the expected government cost and on producer welfare simulation results indicate that a revenue insurance scheme that guarantees 75 percent of expected revenue to risk averse produced could provide approximately the same level of benefits as the 1990 program at as little as one fourth the cost

nonparametric regression techniques in economics this introduction to nonparametric regression emphasizes techniques that might be most accessible and useful to the applied economist the paper begins with a brief overview of the class of models under study and central theoretical issues such as the curse of dimensionality the bias variance trade off and rates of convergence the paper then focuses on kernel and nonparametric least squares estimation of the nonparametric regression model and optimal differencing estimation of the partial linear model constrained estimation and hypothesis testing is also discussed empirical examples include returns to scale in electricity distribution and hedonic pricing of housing attributes

a comparison of tax bases for a personal tax tax bases for a personal tax are compared in this paper it is found that the potential welfare gains of moving from a linear affine tax on labor earnings to a linear affine tax on wage rates seem to be larger than the potential gains of moving from a head tax to an earnings tax it is also shown that for the common optimal taxation model utility levels and ability as measured by wage rates are inversely related at the first best optimum a development of the model so that a positive relationship between utility and ability results is suggested

calvin s restrictions on interest guidelines for the credit crisis calvin s view on the legitimacy of interest has had a great impact on the economic development of western society although calvin took a fundamentally positive attitude to interest he also proposed several restrictions on the charging of interest in this article we investigate the relevance of these restrictions to the current credit crisis we find that each of them provides a relevant interpretation of what went wrong in the buildup of the credit crisis and gives directions to improve policies of banks and governments as well

pests and pesticides risk and risk aversion abstract theoretical and applied literature on risk in decision making for agricultural pest control is reviewed risk can affect pesticide decision making either because of risk aversion or because of its influence on expected profit it is concluded that risk does not necessarily lead to increased pesticide use by individual farmers uncertainty about some variables such as pest density and pest mortality does lead to higher optimal pesticide use under risk aversion however uncertainty about other important variables such as output price and yield leads to lower optimal levels of pesticide use neglect of these variables in most studies has led to the false assumption that pesticides are always risk reducing inputs furthermore there is evidence that in general the pesticide dosage which maximises expected profit is lower under risk than under certainty depending on the balance of forces to increase and decrease pesticide use under risk in many circumstances the net effect of risk on optimal decision making for pest control may be minimal the effect on risk of information about pest density and other variables as in integrated pest management programmes is discussed evidence on this issue is mixed a range of analytical techniques for analysing risk in pest control is reviewed throughout the paper gaps in the existing literature are identified

thresholds in the process of international financial integration abstract the financial crisis has re ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth especially for developing countries the empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration indeed a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses a major complication however is that there seem to be certain threshold levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness in this paper we develop a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions we find that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality the cost benefit trade off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied we also find that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared to those for debt liabilities

optimal income transfer programs intensive versus extensive labor supply responses this paper analyzes optimal income transfers for low incomes labor supply responses are modeled along the intensive margin intensity of work on the job and along the extensive margin participation into the labor force when behavioral responses are concentrated along the intensive margin the optimal transfer program is a classical negative income tax program with a substantial guaranteed income support and a large phasing out tax rate however when behavioral responses are concentrated along the extensive margin the optimal transfer program is similar to the earned income tax credit with negative marginal tax rates at low income levels and a small guaranteed income carefully calibrated numerical simulations are provided

spatial inequality and development is there an inverted u relationship abstract this paper studies the hypothesis of an inverted u shaped relationship between spatial inequality and economic development the theory of kuznets 1955 and williamson 1965 suggests that spatial inequality first increases in the process of development and then decreases to test this hypothesis i have used a unique panel data set of spatial inequalities in 56 countries at different stages of economic development covering the period 1980 2009 parametric and semiparametric regressions are carried out using cross section and unbalanced panel data the results provide strong support for the existence of an inverted u i also find some evidence that spatial inequalities increase again at very high levels of economic development

innovations new market instruments any measure of the volume of financial innovation would register an explosion in the last ten years for example the swap market has grown from zero to hundreds of billions of dollars in this period the number of traded financial futures contracts has increased from a handful to nearly one hundred the explosion is one of both scale and variety even the british government now issues gilts with non standard coupon rates and conversion features apparently tailored to a whole range of specialised clienteles

income and substitution effects for mean preserving spreads a sandmo has ascribed the indeterminancy of the comparative static result for a mean preserving spread to the presence of both an income and a substitution effect in this note the compensation method needed to isolate the substitution effect identified by sandmo is made precise the compensation method is derived from a model that is sufficiently general to include many important applications of the theory of uncertainty the method is used to identify the substitution effect in sandmo s model of the competitive firm under output price uncertainty copyright 1989 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

poverty alleviation and tax policy abstract this paper examines public good provision and tax policy optimal non linear income taxation and linear commodity taxation when the government departs from purely welfarist objective function and seeks to minimise poverty this assumption reflects much policy discussion and may help understand some divergences of practical tax policy from lessons in optimal tax analysis in contrast to atkinson and stiglitz j public econom 6 1976 55 it may be optimal to use differentiated commodity tax rates including the taxation of savings even if preferences are separable in goods and leisure the optimal effective marginal tax rate at the bottom of the distribution may be negative suggesting that wage subsidy schemes can be optimal finally optimal provision of a public good is analysed under poverty minimisation

the demand for ethanol as a gasoline substitute abstract this paper estimates household preferences for ethanol e85 as a gasoline e10 substitute i develop a theoretical model linking the shape of the ethanol demand curve to the underlying distribution among households of willingness to pay for ethanol i estimate the model using instrumental variables techniques and data from many retail fueling stations i find that a 0 10 per gallon increase in ethanol s price relative to gasoline leads to a 12 16 decrease in the quantity of ethanol demanded my findings imply that preferences for ethanol are heterogeneous and that a substantial fraction of households are willing to pay a premium for the fuel this reduces substantially the simulated efficiency cost of an ethanol content standard since some households choose ethanol without large subsidies mitigating deadweight losses

scale economies in electricity distribution a semiparametric analysis we estimate the costs of distributing electricity using data on municipal electric utilities in ontario canada for the period 1993 5 the data reveal substantial evidence of increasing returns to scale with minimum efficient scale being achieved by firms with about 20 000 customers larger firms exhibit constant or decreasing returns utilities which deliver additional services such as water sewage have significantly lower costs indicating the presence of economies of scope our basic specifications comprise semiparametric variants of the translog cost function where output enters non parametrically and remaining variables including their interactions with output are parametric we rely upon non parametric differencing techniques and extend a previous differencing test of equality of non parametric regression functions to a panel data setting copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

hourly wage rate and taxable labor income responsiveness to changes in marginal tax rates recently a voluminous literature estimating the taxable income elasticity has emerged as an important field in empirical public economics however to a large extent it is still unknown how the hourly wage rate an important component of taxable income reacts to changes in marginal tax rates in this study we use a rich panel data set and a sequence of tax reforms that took place in sweden during the 1980 s to estimate the elasticity of the hourly wage rate with respect to the net of tax rate while carefully accounting for the endogeneity of marginal tax rates as well as other factors that determine wage rates we do find a statistically significant response both among married men and married women the hourly wage rate elasticity with respect to the net of tax rate is estimated to 0 14 0 16 for males and 0 41 0 57 for females in addition we obtain uncompensated taxable labor income elasticities of around 0 21 for men and 0 96 1 44 for women in contrast to earlier studies we also find significant income effects for males accordingly for males the compensated taxable labor income elasticity is about 4 percentage points higher than the uncompensated one

nonparametric efficiency estimation in stochastic environments this paper develops a new nonparametric model for efficiency estimation in contrast to data envelopment analysis dea it does not impose debatable production assumptions like free disposability and convexity and it does not assume that the data are measured without error the estimators are asymptotically unbiased and have an asymptotic variance that is comparable to that of stochastic frontier estimators provided the latter use a correct specification of the functional form for the production relationships in addition the estimators can be computed using a simple enumeration algorithm

economies of scale and gender discrimination in transition the case of the republic of tajikistan this article tests for economies of scale and for evidence of discrimination based on gender lines in intra household consumption allocations using data from the living standards survey in the republic of tajikistan tlss overall results support the existence of household economies of scale in tajikistan however empirical evidence supporting boy girl discrimination is limited despite anecdotal evidence otherwise

the second engel law is it a paradox abstract the second engel law says that the engel curve for food moves out as family size increases thus showing a decrease in welfare what is puzzling though is that this regularity does not hold for equivalent income functions expressed in per capita terms deaton and paxon 1998 economies of scale household size and the demand for food journal of political economy 106 5 897 930 show that holding per capita total household expenditure constant per capita expenditure on food falls with the number of heads deaton and paxson s empirical evidence from developed and less developed countries seems to invalidate the claim of the second engel s law the main objective of this paper is to understand such paradoxical relationship between food consumption and household size our nonparametric empirical evidence drawn from the colombian 1985 urban survey shows that the food share is negatively related to total household per capita expenditure in line with deaton and paxson s claim but equivalent incomes shift to the right as theory predicts the regularity of our nonparametric results is an indication of a problem in the parametric specification of the engel curve modified by family size in fact using also the surveys of italy nepal djibouti and bangladesh we show that a theoretically plausible modified engel curve is coherent with the claim of the second engel law and explains deaton and paxson s paradox

demand for risky financial assets a portfolio analysis abstract demand for risky financial assets takes place in portfolio settings the common stochastic orders applied in economics fail to rank demand for assets in such situations even for risk averse investors therefore the evaluation of the relative desirability of risky financial assets requires the establishment of new orders we prove that if returns on risky assets are ordered by the monotone likelihood ratio order then dominating assets will be more desired by all investors with nondecreasing utility functions

employment hours of work and the optimal taxation of low income families the optimal design of low income support is examined using a structural labour supply model the approach incorporates unobserved heterogeneity fixed costs of work childcare costs and the detailed non convexities of the tax and transfer system the analysis considers purely pareto improving reforms and also optimal design under social welfare functions with different degrees of inequality aversion we explore the gains from tagging and also examine the case for the use of hours contingent payments using the tax schedule for lone parents in the uk as our policy environment the results point to a reformed non linear tax schedule with tax credits only optimal for low earners the results also suggest a welfare improving role for tagging according to child age and for hours contingent payments although the case for the latter is mitigated when hours cannot be monitored or recorded accurately by the tax authorities acknowledgements this study is part of the research program of the esrc centre for the microeconomic analysis of public policy at the ifs we thank stuart adam mike brewer roger gordon guy laroque ian preston emmanuel saez florian scheuer seminar participants at harvard mit jerusalem niesr sole and participants in the mirrlees review the editor and the referees for helpful comments we are alone responsible for all errors and interpretations

the effects of cognitive ability and high school quality on college entry decisions nonparametric estimation of parameters of interest the decisions to attend college are analysed and nonparametric predictions compared to those obtained from the widely used logit model the impacts of measured cognitive ability and proxies for high school quality on the decisions to attend college are examined for a sample of white and black males and females from the usa two different parameters of interest which isolate the effects of ability and high school quality on college entry decisions are described and estimated by integrating out the effect of other covariates it is found that measured cognitive ability is an extremely important determinant of college entry for all race and gender groups at the same point in the ability distribution blacks are more likely to select into college than whites and females more likely than males of the same racial group proxies for high school quality such as teacher education student teacher ratios school enrolment and library size are shown to have little or no effects on the likelihood of college entry

negative marginal tax rates and heterogeneity the bulk of the theory of optimal taxation recommends that the marginal tax rate be everywhere positive labor supply is distorted downwards compared with laissez faire the conditions under which the result holds continuous labor supply or intensive margin unobserved productivity constant opportunity cost of work utilitarian planner with a redistributive motive towards lower incomes have been thoroughly investigated jesus seade 1977 1982 ivan werning 2000 martin f hellwig 2007 the purpose of the present paper is to describe how negative marginal tax rates can be optimal keeping with the intensive set up largely studied in the literature when there are multiple dimensions of heterogeneity indeed james a mirrlees 1976 in its section iv indicates along a line that will be pursued further here that the sign of the marginal tax rate cannot be predicted when the agents in the economy differ along several dimensions of heterogeneity workers differ in both their productivities and opportunity costs of work under utilitarianism heterogeneity comes into play through its impact on cardinal utilities how social weights or marginal utilities of income vary with income determines the shape of the optimal tax scheme conditionally on income utility and more importantly its derivative with respect to income may either decrease or increase with work opportunity costs this may vary according to circumstances depending on whether the cost is associated with poor living conditions i e a handicap or reflects a taste for leisure or opportunities outside the labor market such as gardening at home or black market activities for a given income the social weight is proportional to the expected marginal utilities where the expectation is taken over the distribution of work opportunity costs at this income level therefore the social weight curve depends on both the specification of the cardinal utility function and on how the distribution of work opportunity costs changes with income the fact that heterogeneity can blur the redistribution motive through the possible correlation between ability and onerousness of work has been discussed in models where agents have a finite number of types a pioneer work is that of joseph e stiglitz 1982 who shows that the high skilled individual should face a negative marginal tax rate if the low skilled individual s upward incentive constraint binds which is the case if social weights are increasing in type the importance of this observation for policy was pointed out in katherine cuff 2000 who is the first to explicitly link social weights to the opportunity cost of work using alternative choices of cardinal utilities in a model with four types combining two values for productivity and two values for the cost of work robin boadway et al 2002 showed how it can be optimal to have binding upward incentive constraints when high opportunity costs are associated with small social weights

the essential economics of threshold based incentives theory estimation and evidence from the western states 100 abstract many public and private entities utilize incentive systems in which improvements in measured performance are rewarded only when the agent crosses some pre specified threshold this paper comprehensively analyzes the effects of these incentive systems on effort the net benefits of effort and the accuracy of information about agents performance and lays out methods for estimating each these methods are then used to reveal the motivations physiological limits and racing strategy of ultramarathoners trying to complete a one hundred mile race in under twenty four hours

nonparametric and semiparametric methods for economic research abstract developments in the vast and growing literatures on nonparametric and semiparametric statistical estimation are reviewed the emphasis is on useful methodology rather than statistical properties for their own sake some empirical applications to economic data are described the paper deals separately with nonparametric density estimation nonparametric regression estimation and estimation of semiparametric models

technological uncertainty and the theory of the firm several recent articles 1 6 have generalized the theory of the firm to incorporate price uncertainty and risk aversion it is now well known that the risk averse entrepreneur will select that level of output at which the expected price equals the marginal cost plus the marginal risk premium leland 5 provides a similar generalization given demand uncertainty however in each case the assumption of a well specified technology is maintained this paper complements and generalizes the earlier work on the theory of the firm by investigating the effect which technological uncertainty has on the firm s optimal production decision like the earlier work on the theory of the firm we show that the firm selects the level of input at which the expected marginal productivity equals the factor price plus the marginal risk premium unlike the earlier work we show that the sign of the marginal risk premium is not always positive and that it depends on the structure of the firm s technology we show that the distinction between price and technological uncertainty is important because each can lead to different implications for firm behavior like its predecessors the model of the firm presented here assumes a single ownerentrepreneur who makes the production decision we modify the baron and sandmo models by assuming that the entrepreneur knows the cost of each production decision but not the output as a result the entrepreneur s decision yields a random variable denoting output and a linear transformation of it denoting profit the entrepreneur chooses the random variable denoting profit to maximize his expected utility there are at least three distinct ways in which our notion of technological uncertainty may be interpreted first the entrepreneur may not know the location of the production surface in this case each production decision yields a random output an increase in the

the management of risk in developing country finance the commencement of the international debt cri sis is normally linked to the mexican statement of non payment in august 1982 over the seven years of the crisis the costs have been well documented cornia et al 1987 however after numerous plans and proposals little consensus has emeiged amongst creditors on the appropriate solution strat egy let alone between the creditor and debtor countries indeed the discussions following the latest debt proposals of the us treasury secretary nicholas brady have highlighted the many areas of controversy rather than provided a coherent solu tion to a better functioning financing system 1

estimating the benefits of targeted r d subsidies we study the expected welfare effects of targeted r d subsi dies using project level data from finland we model the application and r d investment decisions of firms and the subsidy granting decision of the public agency in charge of the program our model and institutional environment allow us to identify different benefits and costs of the r d subsidy program we find that expected effects of subsidies are very het erogeneous and estimated application costs low on average the social rate of return on targeted subsidies is 30 to 50 but spillover effects of subsidies are smaller than effects on firm profits

the relation between forward prices and futures prices abstract this paper consolidates the results of some recent work on the relation between forward prices and futures prices it develops a number of propositions characterizing the two prices these propositions contain several testable implications about the difference between forward and futures prices many of the propositions show that equilibrium forward and futures prices are equal to the values of particular assets even though they are not in themselves asset prices the paper then illustrates these results in the context of two valuation models and discusses the effects of taxes and other institutional factors

some results on comparative statics under uncertainty this paper presents results on comparative statics for a class of decision problems under uncertainty necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for parameter changes and stochastically dominant shifts in the return in the two asset portfolio problem these results give conditions for the demand for money to be inversely related to the rate of interest further applications include the qualitive behavior of aggregate savings under uncertainty and the production decision of a firm facing price uncertainty copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

nonparametric estimation of exact consumers surplus and deadweight loss we apply nonparametric regression models to estimation of demand curves of the type most often used in applied research from the demand curve estimators we derive estimates of exact consumers surplus and deadweight loss which are the most widely used welfare and economic efficiency measures in areas of economics such as public finance we also develop tests of the symmetry and downward sloping properties of compensated demand we work out asymptotic normal sampling theory for kernel and series nonparametric estimators as well as for the parametric case the paper includes an application to gasoline demand empirical questions of interest here are the shape of the demand curve and the average magnitude of welfare loss from a tax on gasoline in this application we compare parametric and nonparametric estimates of the demand curve calculate exact and approximate measures of consumers surplus and deadweight loss and give standard error estimates we also analyze the sensitivity of the welfare measures to components of nonparametric regression estimators such as the number of terms in a series approximation

one and multi directional conditional efficiency measurement efficiency in lithuanian family farms abstract this paper analyses farming efficiency by the means of the partial frontiers and multi directional efficiency analysis mea in particular we apply the idea of the conditional efficiency framework to the mea approach to ensure that observations are compared to their homogeneous counterparts moreover this paper shows that combining the traditional one directional and multi directional efficiency framework yields valuable insights it allows one to identify what factors matter in terms of output production and input consumption the application deals with lithuanian family farms for which we have a rich dataset the results indicate that the output efficiency positively correlates to a time trend and negatively to the subsidy share in the total output the mea based analysis further suggests that the time trend has been positively affecting the productive efficiency due to increase in the labour use efficiency meanwhile the increasing subsidy rate has a negative influence upon mea efficiencies associated with all the inputs

automobile prices in market equilibrium with unobserved price discrimination in markets where sellers are able to price discriminate or the buyers to bargain individuals receive discounts over the posted prices that are usually not observed by the econometrician this paper considers the structural estimation of a demand and supply model a la berry et al 1995 when only posted prices are observed we consider that heterogeneous discounts occur due to price discrimination by firms on observable characteristics of consumers within this framework identification is achieved by assuming that the marginal costs of producing and selling the goods do not depend on the characteristics of the buyers we also require a condition relating the posted prices to the prices actually paid for instance we can assume that at least one group of individuals pays the posted prices under these two conditions the demand and supply parameters as well as the exact discounts corresponding to each type of consumers can be identified we apply our methodology to estimate the demand and supply in the new automobile market in france results suggest that discounting arising from price discrimination is important the average discount is estimated to be 10 5 with large variation depending on the buyers characteristics and cars specifications our results are in line with discounts generally observed in european and american automobile markets

the effects of progressive income taxation on job turnover abstract we examine whether the level of the income tax rate and the convexity of the income tax schedule affect job mobility as measured by moving to a better job while the predicted effect of the level of the tax rate is ambiguous we predict that an increase in the convexity of the tax schedule decreases job search activity by taxing away some of the benefits of a successful job search using data from the panel study of income dynamics we estimate that both higher tax rates and increased tax rate progressivity decrease the probability that a head of household will move to a better job during the coming year our estimates imply that a five percentage point reduction in the marginal tax rate increases the average probability of moving to a better job by 0 79 percentage points a 8 0 increase in the turnover propensity and that a one standard deviation decrease in our measure of tax progressivity would increase this probability by 0 86 percentage points a 8 7 increase in the turnover propensity this estimate is robust to sensitivity analysis examining the importance of different sources of identification and variation in estimated effects across subgroups in the population our estimated importance of tax policy for job turnover suggests a potential role in explaining the responsiveness of taxable income to marginal tax rates

what do we know about global income inequality in this paper we review the recent literature on global interpersonal income inequality while all estimates agree that the level is very high with a gini of between 0 630 and 0 686 in the 1990s there is no consensus regarding the direction of change we discuss methodological issues including the use of national accounts versus survey based estimates of mean income or consumption and the choice of purchasing power parity exchange rates findings of a rise or fall in global income inequality are not robust across different estimation methods and datasets given the diversity of estimates and various sources of uncertainty including gaps and errors in the underlying data we conclude there is insufficient evidence to determine the direction of change in global interpersonal inequality in recent decades

self selection and pareto efficient taxation abstract this paper analyses the set of pareto efficient tax structures the formulation of the problem as one of self selection not only shows more clearly the similarity between this problem and a number of other problems such as the optimal pricing of a monopolist which have recently been the subject of extensive research but also allows the derivation of a number of new results we establish i under fairly weak conditions randomization of tax structures is desirable ii if different individuals are not perfect substitutes for one another in production then the general equilibrium effects until now largely ignored in the literature of changes in the tax structure may be dominant in determining the optimal tax structure in particular if the relative wage of high ability and low ability individuals depends on the relative supplies of labor the optimal tax structure entails a negative marginal tax rate on the high ability individuals and a positive marginal tax rate on the low ability individuals the marnitude of which depends on the elasticity of substitution iii if individuals differ in their preferences pareto efficient taxation may entail negative marginal tax rates for high incomes while iv if wage income is stochastic the marginal tax rate at the upper end may be 100 our analysis thus makes clear that the main qualitative properties of the optimal tax structure to which earlier studies called attention are not robust to these attempts to make the theory more realistic