international consumption risk sharing this paper formally examines the implications of international consumption risk sharing for a panel of industrialized countries we theoretically derive the international consumption insurance proposition in a simple setup and show how to modify it in more complicated models we analyze the implications of the theory for pairs of countries and find that aggregate domestic consumption is almost completely insured against idiosyncratic real demographic fiscal and monetary shocks over short cycles but that it covaries with these variables over medium and long cycles the cross equation restrictions imposed by the theory are rejected the policy implications are discussed

human fallibility and economic organization doctrines concerning what is a good way to organize a society have influenced human societies more deeply than any other set of doctrines specifically beliefs that one way of organizing production and exchange is better than others have inspired a number of socioeconomic experiments leading to modern capitalist and socialist societies with far reaching implications yet surprisingly the central doctrines though a source of continuing ideological debate have been the subject of only limited scientific enquiry the major proposition the so called langelerner taylor theorem asserting the equivalence between competitive capitalist economies and decentralized socialist economies which make use of the price system made a point in stressing that the issue of the ownership of the means of production might not be central in the comparison of economic systems the theorem however was based on models both of capitalism and of market socialism in which the most important differences between the two systems were suppressed this paper describes a research program attempting to delineate some of the critical differences among alternative forms of economic organization we contend that central to an understanding of these differences is an understanding of differences in the organization of decision making of who gathers what information how it gets communicated and to whom and how decisions get made both concerning what actions to take and who should fill decision making positions this view should be contrasted with the traditional economic paradigm in which decision making plays no role the manager for instance simply looks up in a book of blueprints what the appropriate technique of production is for the given set of factor prices in the conventional paradigm moreover mistakes are never made either in gathering or transmitting information or in making decisions and indeed there are no costs associated with these activities by contrast the view we take here is that to err is human and that different organizational systems differ not only in what kinds of errors individuals make in them but also in how the systems aggregate errors as a result organizations differ systematically in the kinds of errors they make and thus in their overall economic performance organizations also differ in the costs associated with information collection with information communication and processing and with decision making indeed as we discuss below perfect decision making can be achieved by arranging enough decision makers in an appropriate manner no matter how fallible the decision makers are provided their decisions are not purely random or worse what prevents perfect decision making is the cost we refer to the specification of the structure of information gathering communication and decision making as an organization s architecture the objective of our research program has been to construct stylized models of an economic organization within which the consequences of alternative organizational architectures can be examined using these models not only can we compare the performance of particular organizational forms but we can also ask given a particular set of objectives and circumstances what is the optimal structure within tdiscussants david kreps stanford university paul milgrom yale university

feature it diffusion and industry and labour market dynamics the emergence and rapid diffusion of information and communication technology is the most radical technological transformation of the last couple of decades and has had an enormous economic impact this bundle of four articles contains research that discusses major economic implications of the diffusion of it they focus on two main implications of it i networks and industry dynamics and ii it and workplace organisation the two sets of two articles contribute both original theoretical insights and new empirical results to these themes

the effects of human resource management practices on productivity a study of steel finishing lines the authors investigate the productivity effects of innovative employment practices using data from a sample of thirty six homogeneous steel production lines owned by seventeen companies the productivity regressions demonstrate that lines using a set of innovative work practices which include incentive pay teams flexible job assignments employment security and training achieve substantially higher levels of productivity than do lines with the more traditional approach which includes narrow job definitions strict work rules and hourly pay with close supervision their results are consistent with recent theoretical models which stress the importance of complementarities among work practices

trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

the division of labor local markets and worker organization the model developed here explains differences in the degree of the division of labor across local markets for example the typical doctor in one local market may treat a wider range of patients problems than his counterpart in another local market the extent of the division of labor depends on variables affecting the local demand for services two different forms of worker organization cooperation and noncooperation yield divergent results for example specialization increases with the local number of producers under cooperation but may decrease under noncooperation with the number of producers constant local demand variables affect individual specialization under noncooperation but not under cooperation

specialization and human capital incentives for specialization trade and the production of comparative advantage through investment are shown to arise from increasing returns to utilization of human capital indivisibilities imply fixed cost elements of investment that are independent of subsequent utilization hence the rate of return is increasing in utilization and is maximized by utilizing specialized skills as intensively as possible identically endowed individuals have incentives to specialize their investments in skills and trade with each other for this reason even if production technology exhibits constant returns to scale

real exchange rates preferences and incomplete markets evidence 1961 2001 many international macroeconomic models link the real exchange rate to a ratio of marginal utilities we examine this link empirically allowing the marginal utility of consumption to depend on government expenditure real money balances or external habit we also consider two environments with incomplete asset markets one with exogenously missing markets but an endogenous discount rate that anchors the distribution of wealth and one with endogenous market segmentation although none of these satisfies theoretical and over identifying restrictions for every country utility with external habit persistence provides the best match with real exchange rates for oecd countries between 1961 and 2001 jel classification f41 taux de change reels preferences et marches incomplets resultats 1961 2001 plusieurs modeles macroeconomiques internationaux lient le taux de change reel a un ratio des utilites marginales on examine ce lien empiriquement en permettant a l utilite marginale de la consommation de dependre des depenses du gouvernement des encaisses monetaires reelles ou des habitudes donnees on considere aussi deux environnements avec des marches incomplets pour les actifs l un avec des marches exogenes manquants mais un taux d escompte endogene qui ancre bien la repartition des revenus et l autre avec des marches segmentes endogenes bien que ni l un ni l autre ne satisfasse les imperatifs theoriques et les restrictions sur identifiees pour chaque pays l utilite avec les persistances d habitudes externes engendre l ajustement le meilleur avec les taux de change reels des pays de l ocde entre 1961 et 2001

channels of interstate risk sharing united states 1963 1990 we develop a framework for quantifying the amount of risk sharing among states in the united states and construct data that allow us to decompose the cross sectional variance in gross state product into several components which we refer to as levels of smoothing we find that 39 percent of shocks to gross state product are smoothed by capital markets 13 percent are smoothed by the federal government and 23 percent are smoothed by credit markets the remaining 25 percent are not smoothed we also decompose the federal government smoothing into subcategories taxes transfers and grants to states

international business cycles the quantitative role of transportation costs we evaluate the quantitative effects of introducing costs of transportation into an international trade model we model these costs through the introduction of international transportation services sector costs of transportation have substantial long run effects on welfare and may impact the pattern of trade however the business cycle effects on relative price movements and on international comovements are less pertinent since decreased trade volatility counteract the effects of transportation cost variations nevertheless it is also shown that costs of transportation combined with delivery lags go a long way towards resolving in particular the international comovement puzzle

computers skills and wages computer technology is most prominently used by skilled high wage workers this suggests that computer use requires skills to take full advantage of the possibilities which are particularly present among relatively skilled workers this article develops a simple technology adoption model showing that the decision to adopt computer technology depends on i the tasks to be performed ii the level of skill or education and iii the level of wages applying this model to british data it is shown that the effect of wages and particular tasks on computer adoption is larger than the effect of skills on adoption the estimates suggest that in britain computer use is likely to be a matter of cost efficiency and not so much of workers skills

testing the purchasing power parity through i 2 cointegration techniques this paper contributes to the empirical literature on the purchasing power parity ppp over the post bretton woods period by providing a time series based interpretation of the controversial evidence characterizing the dynamics of real exchange rates it is shown that the persistence of deviations from the ppp between a set of european countries and the united states may be empirically attributed to the presence of i 2 stochastic trends in prices using consumer price indices interestingly the slow adjustment towards the equilibrium can be modelled through integral proportional equilibrium correction models and this evidence can be partly reconciled with theories where the inflation rate reduces the markup of profit maximizing firms acting on imperfectly competitive markets copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

international dynamic risk sharing in this paper we examine the implications of international risk sharing among a set of countries in the presence of market frictions which complicate the instantaneous adjustment to the first order conditions we suggest approximating the consumption streams of countries belonging to the risk sharing coalition in terms of a disequilibrium dynamic model embodying forward looking adjustment econometric methods for estimating and testing the model are discussed empirical analysis of a set of core european countries suggests that once preference parameters are allowed to vary across countries we are able to identify a group of nations that share risks against idiosyncratic permanent income shocks the equilibrium position however is reached after a long adjustment period copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

information technology and the changing workplace in canada firm level evidence recent advances in information and communication technology ict have had dramatic effects on both individual and workplace performance use of computers and the internet as general purpose technologies has spread rapidly across all sectors of the economy transforming business organization increasing competition and fostering innovation understanding the influence of ict on the dynamics of the workplace requires information on both demand and supply sides of the labor market but it is only recently that the study of both sides of the market has become feasible using linked employer employee data in this article we investigate the effects of new technology on firm productivity using the rich canadian workplace and employee survey for the period 1999 2003 we apply a mixed regression model which includes both firm and employee characteristics as well as their interactions with computer use our model allows us to control for unobserved heterogeneity at higher levels along many dimensions our findings indicate that computer use by employees has a positive and significant effect on the productivity of firms that the effect has not lost its momentum and that spillover effects are not significant moreover human capital enhances the effect of computer use on productivity but organizational changes do not interact with computer use in our sample period copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

computerisation and wage dispersion an analytical reinterpretation the rich countries have recently seen a dramatic rise in income inequality all the more surprising because the long term trend had been toward equality this paper examines one of the leading explanations computerisation in the workplace i offer a theory of computers impact on white collar work which goes far toward explaining the timing form and locus of recent labour market changes the theory looks at the bureaucratic and organisational applications of computers that have been first largest and most influential they have two effects on firms demand for labour at different skill levels

international risk sharing and european monetary unification abstract we explore income and consumption smoothing patterns among european community ec countries and among oecd countries during the period 1966 90 we find that for oecd as well as for ec countries about 40 percent of shocks to gdp are smoothed at the one year frequency with about half the smoothing achieved through national government budget deficits and half by corporate saving at the three year differencing frequency only 25 percent of shocks to gdp are smoothed mainly via government lending and borrowing in the absence of alternative income and consumption smoothing mechanisms the restrictions on budget deficits imposed by the maastricht treaty should be relaxed to allow governments to run large temporary deficits in response to output shocks

what happens when agent t gets a computer the labor market impact of cost efficient computer adoption this paper offers a model of how computer technology has changed the labor market demonstrating that wage differentials between computer users and non users are consistent with computers first being introduced in high wage jobs following cost efficiency furthermore skill upgrading occurs following a reemphasis on non routine tasks after adoption the model also reveals that neither differences in computer skills nor complementary skills are needed to explain wage differentials between users and non users skill upgrading and the changing organization and intensity of work finally the predicted effects on the wage structure are consistent with empirical evidence

causal effects of paternity leave on children and parents reserving a share of the parental leave period for fathers is considered necessary in order to induce fathers to take leave and to increase men s participation in child rearing we investigate how a parental leave reform directed towards fathers affected leave taking and in turn children s and parents long term outcomes a paternal leave quota greatly increases the share of men taking paternity leave we find evidence that children s school performance improves as a result particularly in families where the father has higher education than the mother we find no evidence that paternity leave counters the traditional allocation of parents labor supply

a new approach for estimating and testing the linear quadratic adjustment cost model under rational expectations and i 1 variables abstract in this paper we propose a simple method for estimating and testing the linear quadratic adjustment cost lqac model in the presence of i 1 processes we specify the lqac model as an exact rational expectations model and we assume that the dgp for the observable variables belongs to the class of cointegrated error correction ecm models by deriving the restrictions implied by the lqac model on the parameters of the ecm we propose an alternative econometric technique for the lqac model in contrast to existing procedures we explicitly account for situations where the cointegration rank of the ecm is greater than the number of control variables i e one the method is applied to the demand for labor in denmark

the linear quadratic adjustment cost model and the demand for labour in this paper we demonstrate a new way of testing the linear quadratic adjustment cost lqac model under rational expectations we illustrate how the parameter restrictions arising from this model can be formally specified and we use these restrictions to extent the technique of campbell and shiller 1987 to a wider class of models based on present value relations potentially the demand for labour is an area in which the lqac model can find applicability in practice and subsequently we analyse sectoral labour demand in danish manufacturing we find however that for our data set the quadratic adjustment cost model under rational expectations can be rejected

consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non traded goods abstract we examine the possibility that non traded goods may account for several striking features of international macroeconomic data large persistent deviations from purchasing power parity small correlations of aggregate consumption fluctuations across countries and substantial international real interest rate differentials a dynamic exchange economy is used to show that non traded goods in principle can account for each of these phenomena in the theory there is a close relation between fluctuations in consumption ratios and those in bilateral real exchange rates but we find little evidence for this relation in time series data for eight oecd countries

the division of labour worker organisation and technological change the model developed in this article explains differences in the division of labour across firms as a result of computer technology adoption changes in the division of labour result from reduced production time and improved communication possibilities the first shifts the division of labour towards generic structures while the latter enhances specialisation our estimates for a sample of dutch establishments in the period 1990 6 suggest that productivity gains have been the main determinant for shifts in the division of labour these productivity gains induced skill upgrading while in firms gaining from improved communication possibilities specialisation increased and skill requirements have fallen the rapid spread of computer technology has led to substantial changes in the division of labour and a shift in the demand for labour in favour of skilled workers mostly these changes have been accompanied by flatter organisational structures larger autonomy for workers or workgroups the application of innovative human resource management practices and so on there are also less typical examples where computerisation is associated with increased specialisation e g the rapid increase of call centres scripting of communication with clients and stricter procedures although the empirical relationship between information and communication technology ict adoption and organisational change has been well documented disagreement remains about the reasons why computerisation provides firms with incentives to change the structure of their organisation and the skill requirements of their workforce

dynamic risksharing in the united states and europe abstract we use a panel var model to improve upon the existing methodologies to analyze interregional risksharing and consumption smoothing channels first we endogenize the output process within a more general multi equation framework capturing the dynamic feedback between output and various smoothing channels second in line with dynamic general equilibrium open economy models of risksharing we exploit impulse response functions to trace the role of each smoothing channel over time in the presence of different structural shocks temporary vs permanent and output vs smoothing channels in the application to the us and oecd countries we find different dynamic properties of different smoothing channels we compare our results with the predictions of standard risksharing and consumption theories and tackle some of the puzzles in the literature such as the international risksharing puzzle and the consumption output correlation puzzle we are also able to address such policy issues as whether fiscal stabilizers have been substitutes or complements for financial market diversification activities and whether further financial market integration is likely to provide countries with more shock absorption tools a key result is the strong substitutability between capital and credit smoothing in the us and between fiscal and credit smoothing in the oecd

the exchange rate and purchasing power parity extending the theory and tests abstract this paper analyzes the exchange rate in a no arbitrage or real business cycle equilibrium model and provides empirical evidence for this model vis a vis ppp our contribution is to show based on a generalization of the equilibrium model of exchange rates that i the test equation linking the exchange rate to fundamentals should allow for international heterogeneity in time preferences and risk attitudes as well as noise that is the model should not be tested as an exact relation ii empirical work should use levels of variables rather than first differences and iii tests on the existence of long run relations should be complemented by test on the signs of the coefficients our empirical work shows that as a long run relation the generalized model outperforms ppp moreover under the generalized model quarterly deviations from the estimated long term relation have a half life of only four to five quarters

the firm as a communication network this paper analyzes how organizations can minimize costs of processing and communicating information communication is costly because it takes time for an agent to absorb new information sent by others agents can reduce this time by specializing in the processing of particular types of information when these returns to specialization outweigh costs of communication it is efficient for several agents to collaborate within a firm it is shown that efficient networks involve centralization that individuals delegate tasks to subordinates only if they are overloaded and that the number of transits to the top tends to be equalized across individual information items

consumption real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets abstract international real business cycle irbc models that assume complete asset markets yield strong restrictions for consumption and bilateral real exchange rate series empirical tests with data for the us japan france uk italy canada and sweden suggest that neither the trend behavior nor high frequency movements of consumption and real exchange rates are well explained by irbc models with complete markets it appears however that high frequency fluctuations of consumption and real exchange rates are consistent with unrestricted international trade in risk free bonds

it diffusion and industry and labour market dynamics the emergence and rapid diffusion of information and communication technology is the most radical technological transformation of the last couple of decades and has had an enormous economic impact this bundle of four articles contains research that discusses major economic implications of the diffusion of it they focus on two main implications of it i networks and industry dynamics and ii it and workplace organisation the two sets of two articles contribute both original theoretical insights and new empirical results to these themes

skill biased technological change and wage inequality evidence from a plant retooling1 one of the most popular explanations for the increased wage inequality that has occurred since the late 1970s is that technological change has resulted in a downward shift in the demand for low skill workers this pattern is also alleged to account for the growth in racial inequality in wages over the same period this article reports on a case study of the retooling of a food processing plant a unique longitudinal multimethod design reveals the nature of the technological change the changes in job requirements and the mechanisms by which the changes affect the wage distribution for hourly production workers this research finds that indeed the retooling resulted in greater wage dispersion and that the changes have also been associated with greater racial inequality in wages however contrary to the claims of advocates of the skill bias hypothesis organizational and human resources factors strongly mediated the impact of the changing technology absent these high road organizational choices th

productivity effects of organizational change microeconometric evidence this paper analyzes the relationship between investment in information and communication technologies ict non ict investment labor productivity and workplace reorganization firms are assumed to reorganize workplaces if the productivity gains arising from workplace reorganization exceed the associated reorganization costs two different types of organizational change are considered enhancement group work and flattening of hierarchies empirical evidence is provided for a sample of 411 firms from the german business related services sector we develop and estimate a model for labor productivity and firms decision to reorganize workplaces that allows workplace reorganization to affect any parameter of the labor productivity equation our general and flexible methodology allows us to properly take account of strategic complementarities between the input factors and workplace reorganization the estimation results show that changes in human resources practices do not significantly affect firms output elasticities with respect to ict non ict capital and labor although most of the point estimates of the individual output elasticities and of the control variables for observable firm heterogeneity are larger if workplace reorganization is realized we therefore apply the kernel density estimation technique and demonstrate that for firms with organizational change theentire labor productivity distribution shifts significantly out to the right if workplace reorganization takes place indicating that workplace reorganization induces an increase in labor productivity that is attributable to complementarities between the various input factors and workplace reorganization by contrast firms without organizational change would not have realized significant productivity gains if they had reorganized workplaces

computing productivity firm level evidence we explore the effect of computerization on productivity and output growth using data from 527 large us firms over 1987 1994 we find that computerization makes a contribution to measured productivity and output growth in the short term using one year differences that is consistent with normal returns to computer investments however the productivity and output contributions associated with computerization are up to five times greater over long periods using five to seven year differences the results suggest that the observed contribution of computerization is accompanied by relatively large and time consuming investments in complementary inputs such as organizational capital that may be omitted in conventional calculations of productivity the large long run contribution of computers and their associated complements that we uncover may partially explain the subsequent investment surge in computers in the late 1990s

the division of labor coordination costs and knowledge this paper considers specialization and the division of labor a more extensive division of labor raises productivity because returns to the time spent on tasks are usually greater to workers who concentrate on a narrower range of skills the traditional discussion of the division of labor emphasizes the limitations to specialization imposed by the extent of the market we claim that the degree of specialization is more often determined by other considerations especially emphasized are various costs of coordinating specialized workers who perform complementary tasks and the amount of general knowledge available