maximum likelihood estimation of first passage structural credit risk models correcting for the survivorship bias abstract the survivorship bias in credit risk modeling is the bias that results in parameter estimates when the survival of a company is ignored we study the statistical properties of the maximum likelihood estimator mle accounting for survivorship bias for models based on the first passage of the geometric brownian motion we find that if we neglect the survivorship bias then the drift has a positive bias that may not disappear asymptotically we show that correcting the survivorship bias by conditioning on survival in the likelihood function underestimates the drift therefore we propose a bias correction method for non iid samples that is first order unbiased and second order efficient the economic impact of neglecting or miscorrecting for the survivorship bias is studied empirically based on a sample of more than 13 000 companies over the period 1980 through 2016 inclusive our results point to the important risk of misclassifying a company as solvent or insolvent due to biases in the estimates

valuing risky fixed rate debt an extension this paper develops a corporate bond valuation model that takes into account both early default and interest rate risk it corrects a defect of recent contributions where pricing equations do not assure that the payment to bondholders upon bankruptcy is no greater than firm value the bankruptcy triggering mechanism is directly related to the payoff received by bondholders when early bankruptcy is forced upon the firm more specifically the default barrier is defined simply as a fixed quantity discounted at the riskless rate up to the maturity date of the risky corporate bond as soon as this threshold is crossed bondholders receive an exogenously specified fraction ofthe remaining assets deviations from the absolute priority rule also are captured because it accounts for gaussian interest rate uncertainty default risk and deviations from the absolute priority rule this model is capable of producing quite diverse shapes for the term structure of yield spreads

high and declining prices signal product quality high and declining prices signal a high quality product high prices are the efficient means of signaling because the consequent loss of sales volume is most damaging for lower cost lower quality products as time passes and the number of informed consumers increases the signaling distortion lessens resulting in a declining price profile the prediction of high and declining prices is robust across a variety of dynamic models and is consistent with recent empirical findings copyright 1991 by american economic association

endogenizing exogenous default barrier models the mm algorithm abstract in this paper we propose a maximization maximization mm algorithm for the assessment of hidden parameters in structural credit risk models step m1 updates the value volatility and expected return on the firm s assets by maximizing the log likelihood function for the time series of equity prices step m2 updates the default barrier by maximizing the equity holders participation in the firm s asset value the main contribution of the method lies in the m2 step which allows for endogenizing the default barrier in light of actual data on equity prices using a large international sample of companies we demonstrate that theoretical credit spreads based on the mm algorithm offer the lowest cds pricing errors when compared to other traditional default barrier specifications smooth pasting condition value maximum likelihood estimate kmv s default point and nominal debt

agency theory and franchising some empirical results this article provides an empirical assessment of various agency theoretic explanations for franchising including risk sharing one sided moral hazard and two sided moral hazard the empirical models use proxies for factors such as risk moral hazard and franchisors need for capital to explain both franchisors decisions about the terms of their contracts royalty rates and up front franchise fees and the extent to which they use franchising in this article i exploit several new sources of data on franchising to construct a cross section of 548 franchisors involved in various business activities in the united states in 1986 the data are most consistent with a model based on two sided moral hazard the empirical models are also more successful at explaining the extent to which franchisors choose to franchise stores than at explaining the terms of franchise contracts finally contrary to the predictions of several theoretical models i find that royalty rates and franchise fees are not negatively related

a barrier option framework for corporate security valuation abstract this paper proposes a framework for corporate security valuation based on path dependent barrier option models instead of the commonly used path independent approach we argue that path dependency is an intrinsic and fundamental characteristic of corporate securities because equity can be knocked out whenever a legally binding barrier is breached a direct implication of this framework is that equity will be priced as a down and out call option we provide empirical validation of the barrier model by showing that implied barriers are statistically and economically significant for a large cross section of industrial firms additional robustness tests confirm that barriers remain significant over a wide range of input variable estimates and finally we apply the barrier option framework to bankruptcy prediction and find that implied failure probabilities dominate z scores in most cases

private equity and regulatory capital regulatory capital requirements for european banks have been put forward in the basel ii capital framework and subsequently in the capital requirements directive crd of the eu we provide a detailed discussion of the capital requirements for private equity investments under different approaches for the internal model approach we present a structural model that we calibrate to a proprietary dataset we modify the standard merton structural model to make it applicable in practice and to capture stylized facts of private equity investments we also implement the early default feature with a fast simulation algorithm our results support capital requirements lower than in basel ii but not as low as in crd thereby giving adverse incentives to banks for using advanced risk models a sensitivity analysis shows that this finding is robust to parameter uncertainty and stress scenarios

modernizing peasant agriculture lessons from el palmar colombia abstract this paper examines the short run and anticipated long run output and income results of the modernization of production in a colombian peasant community el palmar the study finds that in the short run there were increases in output and in producer income as well as increases in local employment and trade opportunities which benefited land poor households however the incidence of extreme poverty in the community was still high after 10 years of modernization the gains from modernization had been limited by the failure of the projects to achieve stable low risk increases in the productivity of peasant resources and many producers had pulled back from adoption of full technological packages in favor of selective and limited adoption the lessons from the community of el palmar are applied to an assessment of the peasant modernization program of the colombian government where it is shown that the problems encountered in el palmar are reflective of problems with the colombian modernization strategy in general the conclusion drawn is that the income gains that can be achieved from the modernization of peasant production in the context of peasant land scarcity and the poor market conditions for traditional peasant products are limited

how does equity capital cost affect bank performance during a financial crisis this article theoretically examines how equity capital cost affects return performance and safety of a bank and how this effect varies across a financial crisis comparing to a normal time when the bank manager s performance reveals the like of higher equity return and the dislike of higher equity risk we derive two main results first an increase in the bank s equity capital cost from an increase of the interest rate of the federal funds results in a reduced loan risk taking at an increased optimal bank interest margin implying better bank performance second by ignoring the dislike we find that the better performance is reinforced during a financial crisis but is reduced during a normal time financial crises and the dislike preference as such contribute a relatively low return and the stability of banking activities

the effect of organizational form on quality the case of franchising abstract the organizational form of franchising has been shown to yield higher profits and faster growth through reducing agency costs why then does anyone not franchise in this paper i argue that the diffuse residual claims of the franchise system reduce overall system quality and that this problem is inherent in the nature of franchising the theory is tested by examining evidence from both the restaurant and the hotel industries including chains that franchise and ones that own all of their units in both industries quality is negatively related to the percent franchising in the chain controlling for size growth in units monitoring costs market segment ownership structure multi chain operation and price the results suggest that the franchise contract increases free riding and decreases quality in decentralized service chains and that quality is not contractible in this setting

the linkage between life insurer spread behaviour and credit swap transaction policyholder protection analysis the paper develops a contingent claim model to evaluate the equity of a life insurer when the insurer could act as a protection buyer or a protection seller in a credit swap transaction market the

the impact of conglomeration on the option value of equity abstract using contingent claims analysis i quantify the effect of risk reducing corporate diversification on the value of equity as a call option on firm assets the impact of conglomeration on firm risk is heavily conditioned on firm size in contrast to small firms the risk of large firms does not decline with increasing conglomeration accounting for this effect the expected equity discount is much lower than commonly assumed and can even turn into a premium if the path dependency of equity is incorporated my results stand in direct contrast to those of mansi and reeb 2002 and caution against using asset substitution as a qualitative argument for explaining economy wide value phenomena

new issues on the u k unlisted securities market the ability of entrepreneurs to signal firm value the present paper investigates whether small firm entrepreneurs are able to signal the value of their firms to potential investors when seeking a listing on the u k unlisted securities market usm the signals considered are the percentage of equity retained by the original entrepreneurs the net proceeds raised by an issue the choice of advising agents to an issue the disclosure of an earnings forecast and the level of underpricing of the new issue in addition the possible interactions between the individual signals are considered and included in the analysis the results of the empirical analysis suggest that firm value is positively and significantly related to the percentage of retained equity and the net proceeds raised thus suggesting therefore that stock markets will invest at higher values ceteris paribus if entrepreneurs indicate confidence in their enterprises via levels of equity retention and the funds they intend to invest in future projects

estimation of correlations in portfolio credit risk models based on noisy security prices portfolio credit risk models are very often constructed with correlation matrices serving as proxies for interrelations in the creditworthiness of each company in addition to the size of the matrix estimation of correlation is also complicated by the fact that defaults are rare and credit sensitive securities such as stocks bonds and credit default swaps cds are noisy therefore we present in this paper an estimation approach based on credit sensitive instruments that accounts for noise and is highly parallelizable the latter being a very important feature for large portfolios in finance a simulation study shows that the method is reliable and has better statistical properties when benchmarked against other correlation estimators in an empirical study based on the cds premiums and stock prices of 225 firms listed on the cdx north american indices we analyze the correlations computed using numerous approaches overall we find that ignoring noise severely underestimates correlations whereas equity correlation is poorly related to the best correlation estimates inferred from the cds market

mitigating contractual hazards unilateral options and contract length in this article we consider the ways in which the desire for efficient low cost adaptation to change influences the tradeoff between the design and duration of long term contractual relationships we examine the distortions in contract terms occasioned by nonprice competition for natural gas in the presence of wellhead price regulation deviations from optimal contract incentives significantly raise the cost of being bound to long term agreements and shorten the duration of contracts the approach we adopt suggests a method for empirically assessing the efficiency of alternative contracting practices and legal standards

the priority structure of corporate liabilities most discussions of corporate capital structure effectively assume that all debt is the same yet debt differs by maturity covenant restrictions conversion rights call provisions and priority here we examine priority structure across a sample of 4995 compustat industrial firms from 1981 to 1991 we analyze the variation in the use of capital leases secured debt ordinary debt subordinated debt and preferred stock both as a fraction of the firm s market value and as a fraction of total fixed claims our evidence provides consistent support for contracting cost hypotheses mixed support for tax hypotheses and little support for the signaling hypothesis

the fee structure in franchising a property rights view abstract the paper offers a property rights explanation for the structure of royalties and initial fees in franchise relationships we argue that the structure of royalties and fees depends on the distribution of intangible assets between the franchisor and franchisee contrary to the agency theory our property rights approach predicts a positive relationship between royalties and fees this hypothesis was tested by using data from the austrian franchise sector

bank capital regulation in a barrier option framework abstract the barrier options theory of corporate security valuation is applied to the contingent claims of a regulated bank the regulator insurer of a bank owns a down and in call option on the bank assets which can be balanced against the expected coverage cost raising the regulatory barrier critical asset level triggering bank closure leads to a transfer of wealth from stockholders to the insurer and reduces stockholder incentives to increase asset risk empirical tests on a sample of 152 one bank holding companies show that regulatory barriers are priced in the stock market and are inversely related to tier 1 leverage ratios

can franchising be an economic development strategy an empirical investigation prior research has examined why franchisors expand abroad but no paper has empirically examined the role of franchising in the macroeconomy of developing nations in this paper the pattern of franchising development is statistically analyzed within the context of the general economic development of latin america it is found that franchising leads rather than follows economic development implications for theory and policy are considered

quality signaling through ex ante voluntary information disclosure in entrepreneurial networks evidence from franchising this paper examines antecedents of ex ante voluntary information disclosures for standardized contracts in entrepreneurial networks entrepreneurs e g franchisors may make such disclosures to prospective business partners in order to signal profitability of partnering attract financial and managerial resources and develop their entrepreneurial networks in practice only a fraction of franchisors make financial performance representations fprs an ex ante voluntary information disclosure to prospective franchisees we address gaps in the signaling voluntary information disclosure franchising entrepreneurship and small and medium enterprise sme literatures we draw on signaling theory to develop a theoretical framework and investigate factors that influence a franchisor s disclosure decision we evaluate hypotheses from our theoretical framework through econometric analyses of multi sector panel data for the us franchising industry we estimate a logit model and use lagged independent variables to address our dichotomous independent variable and potential endogeneity respectively our results support the view that firms signal their quality through fprs to attract potential business partners and expand their entrepreneurial networks beyond the extant literature we find that rigorous partner qualification is another driver of voluntary information disclosure in franchising our findings also provide empirical support for the complementary role played by multiple quality signaling mechanisms used by franchisors and yield public policy implications for franchising

life insurer performance under the bailout of distressed asset purchases abstractthe paper develops a structure break contingent claim model to examine how government bailout affects a life insurer s performance policyholder protection and insurer survival the distre

why do entrepreneurs use franchising as a financial tool an agency explanation abstract when and why one type of entrepreneur franchisor attracts to its ventures another type of entrepreneur franchisees instead of passive investors is a central concern in entrepreneurship literature based on the informativeness principle of the principal agent model we claim that franchisees are not such an expensive financial tool as has been argued in the literature because their compensation return is more efficiently designed it directly depends on variables which are under franchisees control we therefore link agency and financial explanations for franchising most of our findings show that once the agency argument is controlled for the higher the cost of alternative funds for the franchisor estimated through different variables the more the franchisor will rely on expansion through franchising as opposed to company ownership we interpret this as a clue that franchising is also used as a financial capital source

coffee money and inflation in colombia abstract the purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between coffee money inflation and international competitiveness in colombia the basic hypothesis being investigated is that higher lower prices of coffee will tend to result through the accumulation of international reserves in higher lower inflation in turn this higher inflation will generate for a given rate of devaluation of the nominal exchange rate a reduction of the real exchange rate with the consequent loss of competitiveness in the non coffee tradable goods sector a dutch disease type of model is developed to discuss analytically the relationship between coffee prices money creation and competitiveness in the short and long run empirical results for 1952 1980 are presented these results support the hypothesis that there has been a positive relationship between the price of coffee money creation and inflation in colombia

price and advertising signals of product quality we present a signaling model based on ideas of phillip nelson in which both the introductory price and the level of directly uninformative advertising or other dissipative marketing expenditures are choice variables and may be used as signals for the initially unobservable quality of a newly introduced experience good repeat purchases play a crucial role in our model a second focus of the paper is on illustrating an approach to refining the set of equilibria in signalling games with multiple potential signals

does ownership affect the variability of the production process evidence from international courier services a firm often must ensure that products or services it produces match customer expectations we define variability as any deviation in a production process yielding products or services whose attributes differ from the firm s stated target specifications firms pursuing products marked by low variability are more subject to maladaptation costs if production processes are not adjusted to avoid nonconformities furthermore such adjustments often require idiosyncratic investments e g dedicated information technology systems thereby creating contractual hazards and potential underinvestment we hypothesize that ownership of sequential activities in the value chain helps mitigate problems associated with maladaptation as well as suboptimalities in transaction specific investment thereby resulting in lower variability using data on delivery times from the japanese international courier and small package services industry we assess the variability reducing role of ownership in two complementary ways the first approach is parametric allowing us to assess the impact of ownership on the variance associated with delivery time here we focus on shipments that frequently fail to arrive precisely within the time period initially expected by customers the second approach is more consistent with the notion of reliability or the likelihood that shipments will not arrive later than expected we nonparametrically estimate the distribution of deviations between actual and expected delivery time and verify how distinct organizational choices change the distribution ownership of multiple segments yields a particularly pronounced effect on both variance and reliability ownership bestows variability reducing benefits of ownership especially when ownership is observed in multiple stages of the value chain

product market competition and credit risk abstract this study theoretically and empirically investigates effects of product market competition on credit risk we first develop a real options based structural model in a homogeneous oligopoly and show that credit spreads are positively related to the number of firms in an industry the disparity of firm size in an industry is relevant to both product market competition and credit risk and we therefore extend the model to an asymmetric duopoly case in particular we demonstrate that credit spreads of relatively small large firms within an industry are positively negatively related to herfindahl hirschman index and the relative firm size in an industry is an important determinant of credit risk the models implications are empirically scrutinized by a reduced form hazard model and generally supported by performing out of sample analyses the results demonstrate that firm size together with the interaction terms between intra industry firm size dummies and competition intensity can effectively predict default

assessing bank equity risk under legacy loan program we study the effects of purchasing distressed loan on bank equity risk under the legacy loan program llp in which the government is in partnership with private investors the bank may refuse llp when its knock out value is too low when the bank decides to participate in the llp the participation of a private investor generates a decrease in bank interest margin and an increase in equity risk but the knock out value with the llp assistance generates an increase in bank interest margin and a decrease in equity risk our results suggest that the success of llp depends critically on the willingness of a weak bank to participate in it however the participation of a private investor in llp does not decrease the weak bank s equity risk but poses instability to the banking system

government bailouts and default risks of a duopoly strong bank versus weak bank a duopolistic loan market includes a strong bank without the problem of early closure that opts out of government bailouts and a weak bank with this problem that participates in the bailout programmes of distressed loan purchases and direct equity injections a direct implication of our framework is that the strong bank s equity will be priced as a standard call option while the weak bank s equity will be priced as a down and out call option we find that an increase in either bailout i e distressed loan purchases and direct equity injections directly decreases the weak bank s default risk but indirectly increases the strong bank s default risk accordingly either bailout contributes to banking stability since the indirect positive effect insufficiently offsets the direct negative effect giving an overall negative response of default risks to an increase in either bailout higher competition by shifting to quasi competition from collusion increases banking stability under either bailout our analysi

agricultural technology and farm nonfarm growth linkages abstract agricultural growth stimulates rural nonfarm activity by boosting demand for production inputs and consumer goods but different kinds of agricultural technology promote different patterns of nonfarm linkages to explore how key features of agricultural technology affect growth in the rural nonfarm economy this paper reviews an array of cross section and time series evidence bearing on the dynamics of the rural nonfarm economy then using consumption and production parameters associated with different agricultural technologies it introduces a simple model which isolates the effects of different technologies on nonfarm growth linkages

the maturity structure of corporate debt we provide an empirical examination of the determinants of corporate debt maturity our evidence offers strong support for the contracting cost hypothesis firms that have few growth options are large or are regulated have more long term debt in their capital structure we find little evidence that firms use the maturity structure of their debt to signal information to the market the evidence is consistent however with the hypothesis that firms with larger information asymmetries issue more short term debt we find no evidence that taxes affect debt maturity

the pricing of deposit insurance considering bankruptcy costs and closure policies the paper aims to study the pricing issue of deposit insurance with explicit consideration of bankruptcy costs and closure policies full coverage from deposit insurance is imposed by many regulators to stabilize the banking system in the current financial crisis despite of the potential moral hazard problems we argue that bankruptcy cost is an important factor in pricing deposit insurance especially when the insured institution is insolvent applying the isomorphic relationship between deposit insurance and put option we first derive a closed form solution for the pricing model with bankruptcy costs and closure policies then we modify the barrier option approach to price the deposit insurance in which the bankruptcy cost is set as a function of asset return volatility and more realistic closure policies considering possible forbearance can be accounted for the properties of the models are supported by numerical simulations and are consistent with the risk based pricing scheme

moderating effects of investor experience on the signaling value of private equity placements abstract we contend that young start up firms requiring external capital are able to differentiate themselves from competitors through their choices of investors and financing mechanisms private placements of equity convey efficient signals to markets for several reasons they are short term irreversible occur after a more rigorous analysis than public offerings provide contain governance mechanisms and are generally observable by outsiders the disclosure that investors possess a superior reputation for evaluative ability conveys an additional endorsing signal of the firm s prospects this proves especially valuable for younger firms less capitalized firms and firms that have more recently received private equity from an experienced investor using an event history analysis on a sample of 329 publicly held biotechnology firms we find firms that are perceived to be more uncertain and that disclose the presence of more prominent investors are better able to attract subsequent financing

changing asset endowments and smallholder participation in higher value markets evidence from certified coffee producers in nicaragua this paper examines the capacities of smallholders in nicaragua to exploit new linkages to certified coffee markets following the coffee crisis data on livelihood assets were collected from 292 households which were clustered to test how differences in outcomes asset building reflect variations in initial asset endowments the results suggest that most households built particular elements of their asset base and increased their resilience to future shocks however households struggled to make effective use of the gains for intensifying their livelihoods of the least endowed households few made investments in the scale or productivity of coffee and most continued to depend heavily on subsistence production and seasonal off farm income for survival in conclusion improved market access alone even under relatively favorable market conditions and with considerable external support will have uncertain impacts on rural poverty if the underlying constraints on household assets and investments are not addressed concurrently

cash crops in developing countries the issues the facts the policies the issue of cash crops is profoundly controversial the debate uses different definitions of the term and slides across levels of analysis from the household to the international economy it also cuts across arguments crops countries and time periods this paper sets out to order the debate it deals first with definitions and taxonomy and then reviews issues connected with cash crops and a growth b distribution c food security d dependency and e the environment the paper concludes that with appropriate policies cash crops can offer a route to equitable growth