uniform versus discriminatory tariffs when will export taxes be used 1 introductionthis paper attempts to combine two branches of strategic trade policy literature together by analyzing choices of export subsidies and import taxes in a unified framework it aims to provide a better insight into the interactions among the governments of two exporting countries and an importing country in a seminal paper brander and spencer 1985 show that under cournot competition a domestic export subsidy allows a domestic firm to gain at the expense of a rival firm in another exporting country their paper initiated a great deal of interest in the proper use of export subsidies 1 it is noted that in the brander spencer and related models the government of the third country which imports the goods from the two countries is assumed to be inactive on the other hand there is a separate literature that analyzes the optimal policies for an importing country which buys a homogeneous product from two countries with rival firms for example gatsios 1990 and hwang and mai 1991 show that the optimal policy for the importing country is to impose a higher tariff on the product from the more cost efficient exporter choi 1995 and horiba and tsutsui 2000 extend the literature by comparing the impacts of discriminatory and uniform tariffs both of these two papers examine the choice of the two tariff regimes by the importing country and investigate how a regime may affect the level of technologies chosen by the exporting firms all these papers focus on the policies of the importing country while assuming that the exporting governments are inactive in this paper we consider a model similar to those examined by all these papers two exporting countries and one importing country with one firm in each of the exporting countries competing in a cournot way what makes the present paper different from others is that we allow all three governments to be active in choosing the optimal values of their policies an export subsidy tax for each exporting country and a tariff subsidy for the importing country we also analyze the impacts of two different tariff regimes a uniform tariff regime as required by the most favored nations mfn clause of the gatt wto and a discriminatory tariff regime choosing between these two types of tariff regimes is an interesting issue in the present framework because it not only determines the welfare of the importing country but also affects the export subsidies chosen by the exporting countries the present more extensive model and analysis as compared with what exists in the literature can be used to answer several questions if each exporting country is aware of the tariffs to be imposed by the importing country on the products from itself and its rival does it still have an incentive to impose an export subsidy as brander and spencer proposed does such an export subsidy depend on whether the importing country is using discriminatory tariffs or a uniform tariff how might the noncooperative equilibrium in terms of export subsidies be affected by the tariff regimes chosen by the importing country what is the optimal tariff of the importing country in response to the export subsidies chosen by the exporting countries how would the importing country choose between the two tariff regimes how would the welfare of these countries be affected by the policies and the policy regimes some of the results obtained in the present paper can be linked to the existing results under a uniform tariff regime as required by the mfn clause the brander spencer argument kicks in and each country has the right incentive to promote the export of its own firm with an export subsidy if the importing country is using discriminatory tariffs the argument in the papers by gatsios 1990 hwang and mai 1991 choi 1995 and horiba and tsutsui 2000 is applicable an importing country tends to impose a higher tariff on the more cost efficient exporter

teacher quality in educational production tracking decay and student achievement growing concerns over the inadequate achievement of u s students have led to proposals to reward good teachers and penalize or fire bad ones the leading method for assessing teacher quality is value added modeling vam which decomposes students test scores into components attributed to student heterogeneity and to teacher quality implicit in the vam approach are strong assumptions about the nature of the educational production function and the assignment of students to classrooms in this paper i develop falsification tests for three widely used vam specifications based on the idea that future teachers cannot influence students past achievement in da ta from north carolina each of the vams exclusion restrictions are dramatically viola ted in particular these models indicate large effects of 5th grade teachers on 4th grade t est score gains i also find that conventional measures of individual teachers value added fade out very quickly and are at best weakly related to long run effects i discuss implic ations for the use of vams as personnel tools

optimum discriminatory tariffs under oligopolistic competition this paper attempts to present a simple cournot model to determine the optimal discriminatory tariff rates when the international market is a homogeneous heterogeneous product market in the model there are two foreign firms located in two different countries competing for sales in a local market when the firms sell a homogeneous product and the home country can impose differential tariffs on imports from different countries then the tariff on the low cost producer should be hgher in particular with constant marginal costs the tariff difference should equal half the cost difference on the other hand if the firms sell differentiated products with symmetric linear demands and technologies then the weaker the degree of product differentiation the greater is the tariff difference compared with the cost difference

domestic export subsidy and foreign welfare abstract in this paper we present an analysis based on imperfect competition to examine the conditions under which an export subsidy of the domestic country will not only increase its own welfare but also raise the welfare of the importing country and hence the world as a whole under these conditions it is then suggested that relaxation of gatt restrictions on export subsidies might be feasible to some extent

industry structure antitrust and tariffs this paper offers an analysis of the relationship between antitrust foreign trade and tariff policy it is shown that while in the static situation a tariff can be interpreted as a barrier to entry tc the foreign firm in the repeated game framework a tariff has an international antitrust property i e it can break up a cartel consisting of international firms the magnitude of the antitrust tariff will depend on factors such as the degree of cost advantage and product differentiation furthermore the antitrust tariff can paradoxically raise import share and reduce the home firm s output

an analysis of the mfn clause under asymmetries of cost and market structure we conduct a welfare comparison of mfn and tariff discrimination in an oligopoly model of trade between two exporting countries and one importing country while mfn dominates tariff discrimination from a world welfare perspective when exporting countries are asymmetric with respect to either cost or market structure such need not be the case when both types of asymmetries co exist in particular when high cost exporters are merged and the cost disadvantage of the merged unit relative to competing firms is of intermediate magnitude tariff discrimination can be welfare preferred to mfn even when the average tariff is actually lower under mfn jel classification f13 f12 une analyse de la clause de la nation la plus favorisee npf quand il y a asymetrie des couts et de la structure de marche ce texte fait une comparaison de bien etre de la clause npf et de la discrimination tarifaire dans un modele oligopolistique de commerce international entre deux pays exportateurs et un pays importateur alors que la strategie npf est superieure a celle de la discrimination tarifaire du point de vue du bien etre mondial quand les pays exportateurs sont asymetriques soit dans leurs couts soit dans la structure du marche tel n est pas necessairement le cas quand les deux types d asymetrie coexistent en particulier quand des exportateurs dont les couts sont eleves sont fusionnes et que le desavantage de couts est d une magnitude moyenne la discrimination tarifaire peut etre preferee a la strategie npf et ce meme quand le droit de douane moyen est en fait plus bas dans un regime npf

backward stealing and forward manipulation in the wto abstract motivated by the structure of wto negotiations we analyze a bargaining environment in which negotiations proceed bilaterally and sequentially under the most favored nation mfn principle we identify backward stealing and forward manipulation problems that arise when governments bargain under the mfn principle in a sequential fashion we show that these problems impede governments from achieving the multilateral efficiency frontier unless further rules of negotiation are imposed we identify the wto nullification or impairment and renegotiation provisions and its reciprocity norm as rules that are capable of providing solutions to these problems in this way we suggest that wto rules can facilitate the negotiation of efficient multilateral trade agreements in a world in which the addition of new and economically significant countries to the world trading system is an ongoing process

product quality consumption externalities and the role of national treatment abstract article iii of the wto national treatment limits domestic policy in an effort to curtail protectionist discrimination against foreign products in this paper we examine the role of national treatment and prominent article xx exceptions when goods are vertically differentiated and generate consumption externalities we study the domestic policy choices of two countries first stage problem and quantity and price equilibria in two product markets second stage problem under a strict application of article iii and compare them to the policy choices and product market equilibria prevailing when countries can misrepresent external damages and discriminate while one may expect that high externalities would lead to a greater need for exceptions to equal treatment we show that this is often not the case and furthermore that non discrimination can lead to a cleaner world environment

dynamic treatment effects of teacher s aides in an experiment with multiple randomizations using data from a large scale two stage experiment wherein students and teachers were randomized at both kindergarten entry and first grade to be sorted into classes either with or without full time teacher s aides i estimate an econometric model that is uniquely suited to take advantage of this design to determine their effect on academic achievement the identification strategy produces fully nonparametric dynamic average treatment effects for every treatment path i find that the use of full time teacher s aides increases student achievement but the benefits appear to accrue mostly to those of higher socioeconomic status and to white students a cost benefit analysis shows that full time teacher s aides may be a competitive alternative to class size reductions in terms of net social benefits jel i21 i28

foreign equity participation under incomplete information abstract this paper demonstrates how an interaction between ownership rules and trade policy provides a rationale for a host government to impose local equity requirement ler on a foreign multinational it presents a model where in the presence of an import tariff ler can serve as an effective instrument for a host government in removing any incentive for the multinational to mimic an inefficient firm when the government does not have complete information on the cost of the multinational s foreign unit it is shown that the ler can increase national welfare by removing possible distortions under incomplete information it is also shown that product market competition lowers the ler

optimal tariffs and the choice of technology discriminatory tariffs vs the most favored nation clause abstract we compare the effects of optimal tariffs on the technology choice of exporters under the discriminatory tariffs regime and the most favored nation mfn clause it is shown that a lower marginal cost mc technology will be chosen in equilibrium under the mfn clause as a result the importing country s long run welfare increases with the adoption of mfn while in most cases the exporting countries welfare decreases however ex post technology choice the importing country prefers discriminatory tariffs this result therefore highlights the role of mfn as a commitment mechanism to resolve a time inconsistency problem facing the importing country

the intra day impact of communication on euro dollar volatility and jumps abstract in this paper we examine the intra day effects of verbal statements and comments on the fx market uncertainty using two measures continuous volatility and discontinuous jumps focusing on the euro dollar exchange rate we provide empirical evidence of how these two sources of uncertainty matter in measuring the short term reaction of exchange rates to communication events talks significantly trigger large jumps or extreme events for approximately an hour after the news release continuous volatility starts reacting prior to the news intensifies around the release time and stays at high levels for several hours our results suggest that monetary authorities generally tend to communicate with markets on days when uncertainty is relatively severe and higher than normal disentangling the us and euro area statements we also find that abnormal levels of volatility are mostly driven by the communication of the euro area officials rather than us authorities

is the wto passe the wto has delivered policy outcomes that are very different from those likely to emerge out of the recent wave of preferential trade agreements ptas should economists see this as an efficient institutional hand off where the wto has carried trade liberalization as far as it can manage and is now passing the baton to ptas to finish the job this paper surveys a growing economics literature on international trade agreements and argues on this basis that the wto is not passe rather and subject to some caveats this survey of research to date suggests that the wto warrants strong support while a more cautious view of ptas seems appropriate

tariff policy for a monopolist in a signaling game abstract we examine the incentives for a government to levy an optimal tariff on a foreign monopolist with unknown costs with complete information the home government uses a discriminatory tariffs policy to extract rents if the government is incompletely informed about costs we show that under reasonable conditions the unique equilibrium involves pooling where the firm exports the same quantity regardless of its efficiency we find that in general home welfare is higher under alternative policies such as uniform tariffs or free trade suggesting that trade policies that are motivated by rent extraction are unlikely to be robust to the introduction of incomplete information

trade and trade policy with imperfect competition the case of identical products and free entry abstract this paper analyses intra industry trade between economies containing an imperfectly competitive industry in which firms produce a homogeneous output production is subject to increasing returns to scale and there is free entry and exit of firms trade is shown to unambiguously increase welfare by reducing the degree of monopoly in each market and increasing firm size the effects of differences in technology and endowments on the pattern of trade and welfare are examined import tariffs are shown to raise welfare in the country employing the tariff and the welfare implications of various types of industry subsidy are examined

what drives the reversal of the gender education gap evidence from germany we study the mechanisms that are associated with the gender education gap and its reversal in germany we focus on three outcomes graduation from upper secondary school any tertiary education and tertiary degree neither individual and family background nor labour market characteristics appear to be strongly associated with the gender education gap there is some evidence that the gender gap in upper secondary education reflects the rising share of single parent households which impacts boys attainment more than girls the gender education gap in tertiary education is correlated with the development of class sizes and social norms

export subsidies and high productivity cause or effect according to the emerging strategic theory of trade policy countries selling in imperfectly competitive world markets may benefit from export subsidies this paper demonstrates that the theory predicts that it is the countries with the lowest production costs that offer the highest subsidies it is argued that this result diminishes the attraction of the theory as a positive explanation of trade policy

preferential tariffs and the most favoured nation principle a note abstract the aim of this note is to suggest a simple explanation of the need for an international agreement like the most favoured nation m f n principle concerning the uniformity of import tariffs it is shown that preferential import tariffs can be the optimal outcome of non cooperative behaviour by trading countries and therefore it is argued that the existence of the m f n principle reflects the incentive of each country to otherwise pursue discriminatory tariff policies although the m f n principle is well justified in terms of production efficiency its distributional effects favour the more cost efficient countries

does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a post crisis era the case of the ecb abstract we examine the european central bank s ad hoc communication and explore how it informs future monetary policy decisions using the rich dataset of the inter meeting verbal communication by the members of the european central bank s governing council between 2008 and 2016 we construct a measure of communication evaluating its inclination towards easing tightening or maintaining the monetary policy stance we find that this measure provides useful additional information about future monetary policy decisions even when we control for market based interest rate expectations and lagged decisions our results also suggest that in particular communication related to conventional measures and or by the ecb president explain the future ecb rate changes well all aforementioned results hold also in the environment of the zero lower bound overall these results point to the importance of transparent communication in understanding the future course of monetary policy

has ecb communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions an evaluation of the early years of the economic and monetary union we examine the usefulness of communication by the european central bank for predicting its policy decisions during the early years of the european economic and monetary union using ordered probit models based on the taylor rule we find that statements on the main refinancing rate and future inflation are significantly related to interest rate decisions at the same time an out of sample evaluation shows that communication based models do not outperform models based on macroeconomic data in predicting decisions both types of models have difficulty in predicting changes in the main refinancing rate

the mfn clause welfare and multilateral cooperation between countries of unequal size abstract this paper analyzes mfn in a competing exporters model of trade between three countries with unequal endowments and shows that mfn yields higher aggregate welfare than tariff discrimination even as it makes low income countries worse off furthermore in a repeated game of tariff cooperation multilateral free trade is easier to sustain under mfn punishments relative to discriminatory ones this conclusion holds even when tariff discrimination takes the form of bilateral trade agreements overall the analysis shows that from the viewpoint of low income countries mfn and multilateral tariff cooperation are complementary in nature

teacher experience and the class size effect experimental evidence abstract we analyze teacher experience as a moderating factor for the effect of class size reduction on student achievement in the early grades using data from the tennessee star experiment with random assignment of teachers and students to classes of different sizes the analysis is motivated by the high costs of class size reductions and the need to identify the circumstances under which this investment is most rewarding we find a class size effect only for senior teachers the effect exists at all deciles of the achievement distribution but is less pronounced at lower deciles we further show that senior teachers outperform rookies only in small classes interestingly the class size effect is likely due to a higher quality of instruction in small classes

words are not all created equal a new measure of ecb communication we develop a field specific dictionary to measure the stance of the european central bank ecb monetary policy dovish neutral hawkish and the state of the eurozone economy positive neutral negative through the content of ecb press conferences in contrast with traditional textual analysis we propose a novel approach using term weighting and contiguous sequence of words n grams to better capture the subtlety of central bank communication we find that quantifying ecb communication using our field specific weighted lexicon helps to explain future ecb monetary decisions when considering an augmented taylor rule regarding european stock market volatility we find that markets are more less volatile on the day following a conference with a negative positive tone about the euro area economic outlook our indicators significantly outperform a textual classification based on the loughran mcdonald or apel blix grimaldi dictionaries and a media based measure of economic policy uncertainty

monetary policy rules based on real time data this paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules using taylor s rule as an example i demonstrate that real time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with ex post revised data further estimated policy reaction functions based on ex post revised data provide misleading descriptions of historical policy and obscure the behavior suggested by information available to the federal reserve in real time these results indicate that reliance on the information actually available to policy makers in real time is essential for the analysis of monetary policy rules

trade factor prices and the gains from trade with increasing returns to scale existing analyses seem to suggest that national increasing returns to scale are not a very useful tool for analysing trade owing to problems such as multiple equilibria and the tendency towards complete specialization the purpose of this paper is to construct a model in which there are in fact determinant relationships among country size the direction of trade the gains from trade and international factor price differences in the model differences in country size determine the direction of trade which in turn determines factor price differences and limits the possible distribution of the gains from trade commerce international prix des facteurs de production et les gains de l change dans un contexte de rendements croissants a l echelle les analyses conventionnelles semblent suggerer que les rendements croissants h l 6chelle au niveau national ne constituent pas une avenue prometteuse dans l analyse du commerce international parce que de tels rendements creent une presomption en faveur de la specialisation complete et conduisent a des situations d 6quilibres multiples le but de ce m6moire est de construire un mod le dans lequel il existe des rapports determinants entre la dimension du pays la direction des 6changes les gains de l echange et les differentiels internationaux entre les prix des facteurs de production dans ce mod le les differences entre les pays en termes de dimension d6terminent la direction du commerce international laquelle d6termine le differentiel entre les prix des facteurs de production et limite l eventail des r6partitions possibles des gains de l echange

feasible multilateralism and the effects of regionalism recent research has underlined the efficiency of the gatt wto rules from the standpoint of politically motivated governments emphasizing that the current multilateral rules are capable of delivering a politically efficient equilibrium such an equilibrium is however economically inefficient global free trade in particular is generally unattainable even in a fully cooperative world provided that governments have distributive motivations in such a context we show that regional trade agreements can help move the world towards a welfare superior equilibrium the reason is that as members of regional trade agreements lower trade barriers against one another they are induced to reduce their multilateral tariff sa s well once we account for these endogenous changes and only then we find that regionalism can raise world welfare even in a fully cooperative but political world we also find however that members are likely to gain too much from regional integration thereby harming outsiders

central bank communication and monetary policy a survey of theory and evidence over the last two decades communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy these real world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication mostly empirical and almost all of it written in this decade we survey this ever growing literature the evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank s toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions and potentially to help achieve central banks macroeconomic objectives however the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy

communication by central bank committee members different strategies same effectiveness the paper assesses the communication strategies of the federal reserve the bank of england and the european central bank and their effectiveness we find that the effectiveness of communication is not independent from the decision making process the paper shows that the federal reserve has been pursuing a highly individualistic communication strategy amid a collegial approach to decision making while the bank of england is using a collegial communication strategy and highly individualistic decision making the european central bank ecb has chosen a collegial approach both in its communication and in its decision making assessing these strategies we find that predictability of policy decisions and the responsiveness of financial markets to communication are equally good for the federal reserve and the ecb this suggests that there may not be a single best approach to designing a central bank communication strategy

the economics of schooling production and efficiency in public schools n recent years public and professional interest in schools has been heightened by a spate of reports many of them critical of current school policy these policy documents have added to persistent and long standing concerns about the cost effectiveness and fairness of the current school structure and have made schooling once again a serious public issue as in the past however any renewed interest in education is likely to be short lived doomed to dissipate as frustration over the inability of policy to improve school practice sets in this frustration about school policy relates directly to knowledge about the educational production process and in turn to underlying research on schools although the educational process has been extensively researched clear policy prescriptions flowing from this research have been difficult to derive 2 there exists however a consistency to the research findings that does have an immediate application to school policy schools differ dramatically in quality

talking heads the effects of ecb statements on the euro dollar exchange rate abstract this paper studies the reaction of the conditional mean and volatility of the euro dollar exchange rate to statements by european central bank and national central bank officials we focus on comments on monetary policy and the external value of the euro we find that the bundesbank has dominated the news coverage we conclude that ecb statements have mainly influenced conditional volatility in some cases there are effects of statements on the conditional mean of the euro dollar exchange rate efforts to talk up the euro have generally not been successful there is also evidence of asymmetric reactions to news

the high frequency response of the eur usd exchange rate to ecb communication we investigate the impact of the european central bank s monetary policy communication during the press conference held after the monthly governing council meeting on the eur usd exchange rate in high frequency based on the method of content analysis we construct communication indicators for the introductory statement and find that communication with respect to future price developments is most relevant in response to statements about increasing risks to price stability the eur appreciates on impact to the contrary communication about economic activity and monetary aggregates does not generate significant exchange rate reactions

experimental estimates of education production functions this paper analyzes data on 11 600 students and their teachers who were randomly assigned to different size classes from kindergarten through third grade statistical methods are used to adjust for nonrandom attrition and transitions between classes the main conclusions are 1 on average performance on standardized tests increases by four percentile points the first year students attend small classes 2 the test score advantage of students in small classes expands by about one percentile point per year in subsequent years 3 teacher aides and measured teacher characteristics have little effect 4 class size has a larger effect for minority students and those on free lunch 5 hawthorne effects were unlikely

galton versus the human capital approach to inheritance a century ago francis galton proposed a simple yet powerful model of inheritance gary backer s human capital model is often used to analyze important empirical and policy questions but does it dominate galton s from a positive point of view i derive nine implicatiions of the human capital approach that are distinct from galton s evidence from the pis scf and nlsy micro data sets as well as results reported in previous literatures suggest that four of the unique implications are refuted two implications are verified and mixed results are obtained for three others some extensions of economics recently developed by becker and others when applied to inheritance may improve economics predictions

up the average cost curve inefficient entry and the new protectionism abstract a two country model is developed in which each country produces one good with increasing returns the goods being perfect or imperfect substitutes with cournot nash behavior and free entry certain restrictive trade policies have effects opposite to their favorable effect under noentry assumptions import tariffs and export subsidies lead to inefficient entry that raises rather than decreases the average production cost of and price charge by the domestic industry with negative welfare consequences we argue that these predictions of our model are closely consistent with extensive canadian data on entry exit and firms responses to trade liberalization

the relation between narrative and money market indicators of monetary policy this paper studies the relation between narrative based indicators of monetary policy and widely used money market indicators of monetary policy three principal findings emerge first changes in monetary policy as measured by the narrative based policy indices are associated with persistent changes in the levels of m2 and the monetary base in contrast changes in the narrative policy indicators lead to transitory changes in short term interest rates nonborrowed reserves and the spread between the six month commercial paper rate and the three month treasury bill rate third these findings are generally robust across different narrative based policy indices

how does your kindergarten classroom affect your earnings evidence from project star in project star 11 571 students in tennessee and their teachers were randomly assigned to classrooms within their schools from kindergarten to third grade this article evaluates the long term impacts of star by linking the experimental data to administrative records we first demonstrate that kindergarten test scores are highly correlated with outcomes such as earnings at age 27 college attendance home ownership and retirement savings we then document four sets of experimental impacts first students in small classes are significantly more likely to attend college and exhibit improvements on other outcomes class size does not have a significant effect on earnings at age 27 but this effect is imprecisely estimated second students who had a more experienced teacher in kindergarten have higher earnings third an analysis of variance reveals significant classroom effects on earnings students who were randomly assigned to higher quality classrooms in grades k 3 as measured by classmates end of class test scores have higher earnings college attendance rates and other outcomes finally the effects of class quality fade out on test scores in later grades but gains in noncognitive measures persist

national treatment at the wto the roles of product and country heterogeneity this paper analyzes the world trade organization s wto s national treatment nt clause in a two country model where quality of goods and or market size are heterogenous across countries when market size is symmetric across countries a reciprocal nt agreement i benefits the high quality country ii hurts the low quality country and iii delivers higher aggregate world welfare however such an agreement can arise in equilibrium if the high quality country s market is relatively bigger and the quality gap between goods is small i e goods are sufficiently alike the qualitative nature of these results does not change when quality is endogenously determined

should the wto require free trade agreements to eliminate internal tariffs abstract in a three country model of endogenous free trade agreements ftas we study the effects of requiring fta members to eliminate tariffs on one another as is essentially stipulated under current wto rules we explain why in the absence of such a requirement ftas members impose positive tariffs on each other even when maximizing their joint welfare we show that requiring fta members to eliminate internal tariffs induces them to lower their external tariffs such external trade liberalization by fta members undermines the prospects of global free trade since it reduces the non member s incentive to enter into trade agreements with them

managed trade with imperfect information central to the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt agreement signed in 1947 by 23 nations was the reduction of tariffs this had the direct result of bringing down the average ad valorem tariff on industrial goods from over 40 in 1947 to under 4 by the time of the uruguay round in 1995 furthermore following the kennedy round of 1969 the objectives of the gatt and of its successor the world trade organization wto were expanded so as to help bring down nontariff barriers as well remarkably these reductions were achieved in the absence of any external enforcement mechanism intended to punish gatt wto violators commitments were kept only as long as nations continued to view adherence to the agreements as being in their mutual interest 2 it is precisely because the contracting parties of the gatt wto have made it their top priority to reduce trade distortions that the subject of safeguards as an exception to the general rule of liberalizing trade comes into play when governments know they can increase tariffs temporarily in the event of a surge in import volume they agree to negotiate a more substantial tariff reduction during the negotiation stage 3 the move toward special protection is motivated in part by the fact that volatility in trade flows has become a more important source of domestic disruption these special protection policy tools are typically used to limit the rate of import or export expansion from that which would occur in the absence of intervention they are aimed at mitigating the underlining changes in trade flows where the basic insight developed in the literature is consistent with different government objectives to this end corden 1974 has argued that countries rarely initiate protection for the purpose of capturing the terms of trade gains presumably because of the fear of future retaliation by their trading partners countries

exchanging market access at the outsiders expense the case of customs unions under a customs union countries can exchange preferential market access by coordinating external tariffs to shift profits from excluded countries i show that the exporting rents resulting from this coordination can offset trade diversion losses produced by the union even if its members are relatively small in world markets such gains come however at the expense of excluded countries i show that small countries can use customs unions also to foster multilateral cooperation by increasing the incentives of excluded countries to support global free trade le cas des unions douanieres dans le cas d une union douaniere les pays peuvent marchander l acces preferentiel a un marche en coordonnant leurs tarifs externes de maniere a extraire des profits des pays exclus on montre que les rentes a l exportation qui resultent de cette coordination peuvent compenser les pertes attribuables a la diversion du commerce qui decoule de l union douaniere meme si ses membres sont relativement de petite taille dans les marches mondiaux de tels gains se font cependant aux depens des pays exclus on montre que les petits pays peuvent utiliser les unions douanieres pour stimuler la cooperation multilaterale en accroissant les incitations des pays exclus a poursuivre des strategies de libre echange global

anti dumping and countervailing duties under oligopoly abstract this paper constructs a conjectural variations model of international oligopoly in which the home country s optimal policy responses to the foreign government s subsidies and foreign firms dumping can be calculated some theoretical support is found for tariffs that countervail part of the foreign export subsidy the optimal fraction depends on the size of own and cross effects in demand and on the extent of market competition however no normative case is found for anti dumping duties

the role of mfn under asymmetries in environmental standards abstract we critically examine the implications of the most favored nation mfn clause under asymmetric environmental standards using an oligopolistic intra industry trade model we show that environmentally beneficial trade diversion and higher world welfare obtain under tariff discrimination relative to mfn

the reaction of asset markets to swiss national bank communication abstract in this paper we analyze high frequency movements in swiss asset markets in reaction to real time communication by the swiss national bank our analysis of central bank communication encompasses monetary policy announcements speeches and interviews we examine the reactions of the currency market the bond market and the stock exchange the evidence suggests that speeches and interviews along with monetary policy announcements engender a significant price reaction this paper sheds light on the relevance of communications other than monetary policy announcements

on the emergence of an mfn club equal treatment in an unequal world motivated by gatt we endogenize the formation of a club whose members have to abide by the mfn principle of non discrimination the underlying model is that of oligopolistic intraindustry trade while an mfn club does not alter average tariff levels across countries it increases aggregate world welfare makes non members worse off and can immiserize its high cost members these results imply that i core wto rules such as mfn are valuable even if multilateral negotiations deliver limited trade liberalization and ii the distributional effects of mfn maybe one reason why developing countries have been granted special and differential treatment at the wto jel classification f13 f10 f15

multi lateral trade negotiations and the most favored nation clause abstract this paper considers the interaction between private information and the most favored nation clause in trade negotiations it demonstrates that by aggregating uncertainty over a number of trading partners the most favored nation clause may offer a welfare improvement over a set of bilateral trade negotiations this improvement is shown to be most pronounced when a large number of countries are involved in negotiations

tariffs and the most favored nation clause abstract in an n country oligopoly model of intraindustry trade n 3 this paper explores the economics of the most favored nation mfn principle under the non cooperative tariff equilibrium each country imposes higher tariffs on low cost producers relative to high cost ones thereby causing socially harmful trade diversion mfn adoption by each country improves world welfare by eliminating this trade diversion under linear demand mfn adoption by the country with the average production cost is most desirable high cost countries refuse reciprocal mfn adoption with other countries and also lose even if others engage in reciprocal mfn adoption amongst themselves

when are nash equilibria independent of the distribution of agents characteristics author s bergstrom ted varian hal r abstract we present examples of nash equilibria that do not vary with the distribution of a parameter across agents and then offer a general theorem that characterizes this independence

the effects of class size on student achievement new evidence from population variation abstract i identify the effects of class size on student achievement using longitudinal variation in the population associated with each grade in 649 elementary schools i use variation in class size driven by idiosyncratic variation in the population i also use discrete jumps in class size that occur when a small change in enrollment triggers a maximum or minimum class size rule the estimates indicate that class size does not have a statistically significant effect on student achievement i rule out even modest effects 2 to 4 percent of a standard deviation in scores for a 10 percent reduction in class size

do countries free ride on mfn abstract the most favored nation mfn clause has long been suspected of creating a free rider problem in multilateral trade negotiations to address this issue we model multilateral negotiations as a mechanism design problem with voluntary participation we show that an optimal mechanism induces only the largest exporters to participate in negotiations over any product thus providing a rationalization for the principal supplier rule we also show that through this channel equilibrium tariffs vary according to the herfindahl hirschman index of export shares higher concentration in a sector reduces free riding and thus causes a lower tariff estimation of our model using sector level tariff data for the u s provides strong support for this relationship

tariffs licensing and market structure this paper challenges the conventional wisdom that exclusive owners of an advanced technology are always better off when producing as a monopolist than when competing against another firm competition against a less efficient firm weakens the power that a host country can exert on the incumbent in the form of its tariff policy we show that this gives a motive for a monopolist to license its technology to another foreign firm a host country gains more from increased competition if it can induce the foreign incumbent to transfer technology to the host country firm we show that the host country can do so by tariff commitment we also discuss the implications of bargaining under licensing and bertrand competition in the product market hence this paper qualifies and extends the recent work of kabiraj and marjit protecting consumers through protection the role of tariff induced technology transfer european economic review 47 113 124