input output analysis of alternative policies implemented on the energy activities an application for catalonia abstract the aim of this paper is to analyze the economic impact of alternative policies implemented on the energy activities of the catalan production system specifically we analyze the effects of a tax on intermediate energy uses a reduction in intermediate energy demand and a tax on intermediate uses combined with a reduction in intermediate energy demand the methodology involves two versions of the input output price model a competitive price formulation and a mark up price formulation the input output price framework will make it possible to evaluate how the alternative measures modify production prices consumption prices private real income and intermediate energy uses the empirical application is for the catalan economy and uses economic data for the year 2001 the combination of a tax on energy uses and an improvement in the energy efficiency of the production system is a measure that accomplishes both economic and environmental goals since it has no effects on prices it has a positive effect on private real income and finally energy consumption is considerably reduced

parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post bretton woods period abstract a common view among recent studies on purchasing power parity is that the post bretton woods period is far too short to reveal any significant parity reversion in individual series of real exchange rates is this really so the answer this study shows depends very much on the statistical test being used two efficient univariate unit root tests are applied to uncover parity reversion these tests require much shorter sample sizes than conventional tests to attain the same statistical power empirical results show that parity reversion can be unveiled over the modern float if an efficient unit root test is applied

will china s trade restructuring reduce co2 emissions embodied in international exports china s co2 emissions exports embodied in international trade has recently attracted more attention and raises questions on the liability and responsibility for environmental costs associated with chinese produced goods given that embodied emissions exports and imports are normal phenomena during international trade the key question focuses on china s reduction of embodied emissions exports via trade restructuring a trade restructuring optimization model combined with input output analysis and multi objective programming was established in this study in order to analyze the maximum volume of embodied emissions reduction within bearable cost constraints the results suggest that the trade off cost for china to reduce embodied emissions exports is very high additionally the net exports of china s embodied co2 emissions under a reasonable scenario can only be reduced by 3 26 previous policy suggestions on import export structure adjustments have limited effects on the reduction of china s embodied emission exports and unemployment is an important constraint on embodied co2 emissions export reduction even so china can still take advantage of various positive factors that have emerged in recent years to improve the industrial and energy consumption structures given that the increasing trend of china s embodied co2 emission exports has already changed gradually

deviations from purchasing power parity in the long run this paper demonstrates that deviations from purchasing power parity reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data since this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper proposes an alternative explanation which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism this paper will demonstrate that deviations from purchasing power parity ppp reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible exchange rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper therefore proposes an alternative explanation which does not presuppose free trade in goods but which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism the major implication of the theory and the results is that ppp is as likely to be violated in the long as in the short run as an empirical matter deviations from ppp can be observed for most currencies at any instant see kravis et al 21 stockman 37 and genberg 15 among others these deviations are typically both cumulative and persistent the real exchange rate can remain on either side of parity for lengthy but variable time intervals of a year or more as a consequence the current consensus shared

national price levels purchasing power parity and cointegration a test of four high inflation economies abstract the time series properties of exchange rates and wholesale prices from four high inflation countries show some evidence in support of purchasing power parity tests for stationarity of real exchange rates and cointegration among price and exchange rate variables are presented for argentina brazil chile and israel during the 1970s and 1980s error correction models describe the mechanism of adjustment to long run equilibrium

thailand green gdp assessment based on environmentally extended input output model abstract green gdp is an indicator of economic growth with the environmental impact on that growth factored into the traditional gdp this study aims to develop a green gdp model for thailand using the eio lca method green gdp is calculated by subtracting environmental costs from the traditional gdp environmental cost can be further divided into three components based on the system of environmental economic accounting seea which include depletion cost degradation cost and defensive cost life cycle assessment is a tool for evaluating the environmental impact which in this study focuses on ghg emissions the total direct ghg emissions for thailand are calculated for 1990 2020 based on the 2006 ipcc guidelines and thailand public statistical data for each economic sector it was found that the amount of ghg emissions are 242 459 million tonnes co2eq yr which come from 10 economic sectors comprised of agriculture mining manufacturing petroleum refinery power generation gas separation construction commercial residential and transportation more than 80 of the total direct emissions come from four sectors manufacturing 28 power generation 26 transportation 16 and agriculture 15 the portion of total ghg emissions direct and indirect emissions contributions is different from direct ghg emissions because the proportion of emissions from upstream processes in each sector is different the portion of total ghg emissions of manufacturing agriculture transportation and residential are 60 22 13 and 5 respectively the total thailand green gdp is consolidated from the results of each sector s green gdp the difference between thailand s gdp and green gdp is about 2 due to the degradation cost of ghg emissions with variability in the ratio of gdp to green gdp across different sectors the forecast of green gdp by sector for 2015 2020 can be used as business as usual bau scenarios to support policy making as well as the nama and indc action plan for thailand

do real exchange rates contain a unit root evidence from turkish data this study explores whether the long run purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis holds for selected real exchange rates from turkish economy during the period 1982m1 2003m12 in addition to conventional unit root tests five different unit root test procedures have been applied including efficient point optimal tests extended m tests and gls detrended variants of df tests to four monthly real exchange rate series defined in terms of both producer and consumer price indices the countries analysed are the usa the uk germany and italy which are major trade partners of turkey mixed evidence is found for the long run ppp hypothesis when real exchange rate is defined in terms of german dm and italian lira however the empirical analysis reveals that the ppp hypothesis holds strongly in the long run for the uk and us based real exchange rates series using either ppi or cpi in corroboration with other studies in the literature the bias correlated half life estimates suggest relatively faster speeds of

the collapse of purchasing power parities during the 1970 s one of the striking facts concerning the relationship beiveen prices and exchange rates during the 1970 s has been the dismal performance of the predictions of the simple versions of the purchasing power parity doctrine ppp that doctrine in its absolute version states that the equilibrium exchange rate between domestic and foreign currencies equals the ratio of domestic to foreign price levels the relative version of the doctrine relates equilibrium changes in exchange rates to changes in the ratio of domestic to foreign prices during the 1970 s short run changes in exchange rates bore little relationship to short run differentials in national inflation rates and frequently divergences from purchasing power parities have been cumulative this paper reviews and analyzes the empirical record of exchange rates and prices during the 1970 s and the analysis is based on the experience of the dollar pound the dollar frecch franc and the dollar dm exchange rates section 2 presents the evidence on ppp during the 1970 s and contrasts it with the evidence from the 1920 s a period during which the doctrine held up reasonably well this analysis is relevant for assessing whether the flexible exchange rate system was successful in providing national economies with an added degree of insulation from foreign shocks and whether it provided policymakers with an added instrument for the conduct of macroeconomic policy the evidence regarding devia tions from purchasing power parities is also relevant for determining whether there is a case for managed float section 3 attempts to explain what went wrong with

co2 emissions and intersectoral linkages the case of spain this paper proposes a methodology to identify the most relevant productive transactions in terms of co2 emissions in the most polluting sectors of an economy and applies this methodology to the spanish case emissions can be related to the co2 emissions intensity of sectors co2 intensity factor to the size of the economy s flows scale factor to the input output productive relationships within an economy technology production factor and to the structure of final demand of different sectors demand factor a formal analysis of these factors is carried out by means of an input output framework combined with a sensitivity analysis by considering key sectors and relevant transactions in terms of co2 emissions the most effective policy measures aimed at reducing co2 emissions can be identified

positive and normative analysis of the output opportunity costs of ghg emissions reductions a comparison of the six largest eu economies abstract any policy that aims at reducing ghg emissions by way of modulating the structure of an economy will entail resource reallocation and therefore an implicit economic cost in this paper we present a novel answer to this question using positive and normative analyses in such a way that they complement one another from a positive perspective we first propose a new look at the analysis of sectors distributed ghg forward emissions on the basis of absolute rather than marginal effects using this information we then move to a normative viewpoint using an environmental extended input output linear programming system and compute lower bounds for the potential gross and net output losses for each production unit when facing emissions reduction targets such as those proposed by the european union in their 20 20 20 directive the originality of our approach relies on two aspects namely the introduction of an armington assumption to link domestic and imported output and that differently to previous works total final demand drives the optimal adjustments to reach emissions cuts while minimizing output losses our empirical exercise compares the results of these normative and positive analyses for the six largest economies in the european union

environmental impacts of changes to healthier diets in europe food consumption causes together with mobility shelter and the use of electrical products most life cycle impacts of consumption meat and dairy are among the highest contributors to environmental impacts from food consumption a healthier diet might have less environmental impacts using the e3iot environmentally extended input output database developed in an eu study on environmental impacts of products eipro this paper estimates the difference in impacts between the european status quo and three simulated diet baskets i e a pattern according to universal dietary recommendations the same pattern with reduced meat consumption and a mediterranean pattern with reduced meat consumption production technologies protein and energy intake were kept constant though this implies just moderate dietary shifts impact reductions of up to 8 were possible in reduced meat scenarios the slightly changed food costs do not lead to significant first order rebound effects second order rebounds were estimated by applying the capri partial equilibrium model this analysis showed that european meat production sector will most likely respond by higher exports to compensate for losses on the domestic meat market higher impact reductions probably would need more drastic diet changes 2011 elsevier b v

real exchange rates in the short medium and long run abstract this paper uses long horizon autocorrelations and variance ratio statistics to test for long term mean reversion in real exchange rates unlike most previous tests of this hypothesis the tests do reject a random walk for monthly data in the post bretton woods era however the statistics indicate that positively correlated innovations rather than mean reversion are the source of the rejection tests using annual data for the twentieth century also reject the random walk in this case however the rejection can be attributed to mean reversion and confirms that ppp is a long term phenomenon

the influence of country risk factors on interest rate differentials on international bank lending to sovereign borrowers 1985 the influence of country risk factors on interest rate differentials on international bank lending to sovereign borrowers applied economics vol 17 no 3 pp 491 507

eco efficiency assessment of eu manufacturing sectors combining input output tables and data envelopment analysis following production and consumption based accounting approaches abstract assessing the footprint of anthropogenic activities has become particularly challenging in today s globalized markets where a large number of economic transactions taking place across the globe need to be disentangled before the most critical sectors are identified in this work we present an approach to quantify the eco efficiency of economic activities that combines multi regional environmentally extended input output tables and data envelopment analysis we employ this method to assess the european union manufacturing sectors in terms of three inputs global warming potential potential acidifying equivalent and tropospheric ozone forming potential and one output economic wealth following both production and consumption based accounting approaches our approach classifies economic sectors as efficient and inefficient and for the latter it provides improvement targets that if attained would make them efficient we find that there is a significant mismatch at the sectorial level between both accounting schemes each providing complementary information for policy making in the production based case targets allow identifying sectors and pollutants requiring more stringent regulations and or higher investments in cleaner technologies conversely the consumption based accounting allows identifying the ultimate sources of impact an insight that can assist in the selection of alternative cleaner suppliers via eco labelling of products services and proper taxation schemes

purchasing power parity over two centuries abstract this paper re examines the purchasing power parity hypothesis for the dollar sterling exchange rate using the two centuries of data from lothian and taylor lt 1996 real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries journal of political economy 104 3 488 509 unlike lt we conclude that the dollar sterling rer is nonstationary implying a rejection of the long run ppp hypothesis the differences in our conclusions are explained by 1 sensitivity of adf unit root tests to the choice of lag length and or 2 the presence of significant time trends in the adf or phillips perron unit root test equations

purchasing power parity in less developed and transition economies a review paper abstract the concept of purchasing power parity ppp has been the subject of numerous studies many of which have been unable to prove conclusively this core principle of international finance although industrialized countries have received most of the attention studies that focus on less developed and transition economies have also attained mixed results this study surveys trends in this branch of the literature highlighting the econometric advances that have sought to solve this puzzle while pointing out that more needs to be done to address the reasons that might cause ppp not to hold

long memory and persistence in aggregate output abstract we examine persistence in u s aggregate output by estimating fractionally integrated arima models these models provide better low frequency approximations to the wold representation than previous stochastic specifications and earlier results on the importance of a permanent component emerge as special cases we find evidence of long memory which induces persistence though this long memory need not be associated with a unit root our point estimates indicate that macroeconomic shocks while persistent are distinctly less persistent than many earlier studies suggest however confidence intervals associated with the long run response are quite wide

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

trends random walks and persistence an empirical study of disaggregated u s industrial production unit root and variance ratio tests are used to examine the trend properties and degree of persistence of industrial production in u s industries and comparable aggregates during the post world war ii period the evidence from unit root tests suggests that less than one half of these industries have output that may be characterized as a random walk the variance ratio test results generally support this conclusion consistent with standard economic theory fluctuations in durable goods industries are less persistent than in nondurable goods industries finally tests find relatively greater persistence in the aggregate industrial production data copyright 1992 by mit press

generalized long memory and mean reversion of the real exchange rate definitive evidence regarding a rapid mean reversion of the real exchange rate is not present when using standard linear methodology including unit root tests and fractional integration to consider the robustness of these results we use an encompassing model the gegenbauer autoregressive moving average garma model which nests as special cases the existing linear methods the garma model accommodates a complete notion of persistence and allows shocks to dissipate slowly in a cyclical manner we find evidence supporting a weak version of purchasing power parity where equilibrium errors are long memory with strongly persistent cycles however this new form of cyclical mean reversion is likely too slow to be economically meaningful the inability to find a strong equilibrium attractor process using a very general encompassing linear methodology provides support for the recent models that allow for a nonlinear attraction process and for shifting real exchange rate equilibria

purchasing power parity in the long run a test of the dollar pound exchange rate 1890 1978 this paper tests the purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis by analyzing t he long run tendency of the dollar pound exchange rate using data sin ce 1890 two different models are considered 1 a na ive model and 2 a modified monetary model the conditions of propor tionality and symmetry cannot be rejected when using the naive model the final results using the monetary model however indicate that t he existence of permanent deviations from ppp cannot be ruled out copyright 1987 by ohio state university press

income growth and atmospheric pollution in spain an input output approach abstract the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressures are complex since the early nineties the debate on these relationships has been strongly influenced by the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis which states that during the first stage of economic development environmental pressures increase as per capita income increases but once a critical turning point has been reached these pressures diminish as income levels continue to increase however to date such a delinking between economic growth and emission levels has not happened for most atmospheric pollutants in spain the aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between income growth and nine atmospheric pollutants in spain in order to obtain empirical outcomes for this analysis we adopt an input output approach and use namea data for the nine pollutants first we undertake a structural decomposition analysis for the period 1995 2000 to estimate the contribution of various factors to changes in the levels of atmospheric emissions and second we estimate the emissions associated with the consumption patterns of different groups of households classified according to their level of expenditure

a multiple objective model to deal with economy energy environment interactions abstract an economy energy environment multiple objective model based on the linear structure of inter industry production linkages is presented axes of evaluation consistent with sustainable energy strategies economic growth social welfare and environmental friendliness are explicitly considered the aim of this study is to provide decision makers with a comprehensive model which allows to assess environmental burdens global warming potential and acidification potential with respect to changes in economic activities consistent with distinct policy measures

are bilateral real exchange rates stationary evidence from lagrange multiplier unit root tests for india the paper examines the stationarity of india s real exchange rate vis a vis 16 of its major trading partner countries for the period 1960 2000 application of the conventional adf unit root test the lagrange multiplier lm unit root test with one structural break and the lm unit root test with two structural breaks provides evidence that india s exchange rate vis a vis 15 out of 16 countries is stationary implying support for purchasing power parity

a fractional cointegration analysis of purchasing power parity a generalized notion of cointegration called fractional cointegration is introduced to examine the long run purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis by allowing deviations from equilibrium to follow a fractionally integrated process the fractional cointegration analysis can capture a wider range of mean reversion behavior than standard cointegration analyses this gain is flexibility in modeling subtle mean reverting dynamics is found to be important for a proper evaluation of long run ppp empirical results based on historical data for the 1914 1989 period show that ppp reversion exists and can be characterized by a fractionally integrated process in three out of five countries studied the results support ppp as a long run phenomenon though significant short run deviations from ppp can exist

on the power of dickey fuller tests against fractional alternatives abstract we examine the properties of dickey fuller unit root tests under fractionally integrated alternatives and find that these tests have quite low power

identifying strategies for mitigating the global warming impact of the eu 25 economy using a multi objective input output approach global warming mitigation has recently become a priority worldwide a large body of literature dealing with energy related problems has focused on reducing greenhouse gases emissions at an engineering scale in contrast the minimization of climate change at a wider macroeconomic level has so far received much less attention we investigate here how to mitigate global warming by performing changes in an economy to this end we make use of a systematic tool that combines three methods linear programming environmentally extended input output models and life cycle assessment principles the problem of identifying key economic sectors that contribute significantly to global warming is posed in mathematical terms as a bi criteria linear program that seeks to optimize simultaneously the total economic output and the total life cycle co2 emissions we have applied this approach to the european union economy finding that significant reductions in global warming potential can be attained by regulating specific economic sectors our tool is intended to aid policy makers in the design of more effective public policies for achieving the environmental and economic targets sought

parity reversion persistence in real exchange rates middle income country case this article investigates purchasing power parity ppp in the specific context of middle income countries to circumvent the low power of traditional stationarity tests augmented dickey fuller and phillips perron tests it performs variance ratio and fractional integration tests in addition to perron s test that accounts for potential structural changes in real exchange rate processes beyond estimating half life shocks to ppp this article attempts to explain these estimates using a set of country specific variables as suggested by economic theory the evidence suggests that reversion to parity tends to be faster in high inflation countries and that productivity improvement leads to a higher level of persistence openness to trade tends to reduce the extent of deviations from parity but this result does not appear to be statistically robust evidence shows also that deviations are less persistent under a fixed exchange rate regime and under unrestricted capital mobility

a goal programming model for environmental policy analysis application to spain abstract sustainable development has become an important part of international and national approaches to integrate economic environmental social and ethical considerations so that a good quality of life can be enjoyed by current and future generations for as long as possible however nowadays sustainable development is threatened by industrial pollution emissions which cause serious environmental problems due to a lack of adequate quantitative models for environmental policy analysis there is a strong need for analytical models in order to know the effects of environmental policies in the present paper a goal programming model based on an environmental input output linear programming model is developed and applied to the spanish economy the model combines relations between economic energy social and environmental effects providing valuable information for policy makers in order to define and examine the different goals that must be implemented to reach sustainability

debt arrears in latin america do political variables matter political instability and debt problems characterise latin america in the last two decades this article estimated a logit model of debt arrears including economic as well as political variables our results suggested that both economic and political indicators affected debt repayment in latin america during 1971 86 we also cast a shadow on the viewpoint that authoritarian and military regimes have an advantage over democratically elected governments with regard to debt related issues

purchasing power parity abstract this paper examines the purchasing power parity henceforth ppp using historical data and the cointegration approach the results indicate that the exchange rate is cointegrated with the wholesale price index wpi ratio but not with the consumer price index cpi ratio the cointegrating vector is close to 0 1 for the cpi based real exchange rates however we cannot reject the random walk hypothesis the findings caution us on the use of general price indexes that give a large weight to nontraded goods and are therefore subject to long run deviations from ppp

real exchange rates under the gold standard purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics empirically it is also one of the most hotly contested numerous recent studies for example have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post bretton woods float and have reached different conclusions we assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons first the post 1973 data contain by definition only a very limited amount of the low frequency information relevant for examination of long run parity second the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to admissible low frequency dynamics both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper with dramatic results we construct a new data set of 16 real exchange rates covering more than a century of the classic gold standard period and we study deviations from parity using long memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean

exchange rates and traded goods prices abstract this paper presents a partial equilibrium model of the determination of domestic and export prices by a monopolistic competitive firm the model stresses the role of exchange rate uncertainty and expectations the most important result of the analysis is that the stochastic properties of deviations from the law of one price are crucially affected by the currency of denomination of export prices using data on domestic and dollar export prices of japanese goods i find that deviations from the law of one price are due to exchange rate surprises but also to price staggering and ex ante price discrimination

purchasing power parity over two centuries strengthening the case for real exchange rate stability a reply to cuddington and liang cuddington and liang 2000 purchasing power parity over two centuries journal of international money and finance 19 751 755 examine the long span of sterling dollar real exchange rate data of lothian and taylor 1996 real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries journal of political economy 104 488 509 and claim to reject long run purchasing power parity by fitting time trends or by considering very high order autoregresssive representations this reply demonstrates however that the central claims of lothian and taylor are in fact strengthened by the implications of cuddington and liang s analysis in that while the economic importance of introducing trend terms is slight this leads to a faster estimated speed of mean reversion c 2000 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved jel classification f31 f41 c22

measuring the persistence of deviations from purchasing power parity with a fractionally integrated star model abstract empirically elements of both fractional long memory and threshold non linearity are present in the real exchange rates of the g 7 countries against the us notably in the eu countries estimated half lives of deviations from ppp using median unbiased corrections to conventional linear autoregressive models corroborate existing evidence related to the ppp paradox as half lives range from at least four years to an infinite number of years in contrast for each eu country accounting for threshold non linearity results in estimated half lives that can be less than three years even with the allowance for fractional long memory

a panel project on purchasing power parity mean reversion within and between countries abstract previous time series studies have shown evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates deviations from purchasing power parity ppp appear to have half lives of approximately four years however the long samples required for statistical significance are unavailable for most currencies and are potentially inappropriate because of regime changes in this study we re examine deviations from ppp using a panel of 150 countries and 45 annual post wwii observations our panel shows strong evidence of mean reversion that is similar to that from long time series ppp deviations are eroded at a rate of approximately 15 annually i e their half life is around four years such findings can be masked in time series data but are relatively easy to find in cross sections

long run purchasing power parity with short run data evidence with a null hypothesis of stationarity abstract we investigate long run purchasing power parity with data from the current floating exchange rate period by using tests where stationarity and cointegration are the null rather than the alternative hypotheses in most cases we cannot reject either the null hypothesis of stationarity of the real exchange rate or the null of cointegration between the nominal exchange rate and the domestic and foreign price levels this constitutes evidence of long run purchasing power parity because using the same tests we can reject the null of stationarity for the nominal exchange rate confirmation of the results is provided by a monte carlo study

the persistence of volatility and stock market fluctuations this paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices it demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated implying that shocks to volatility do not persist these shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices since changes in volatility affect expected required rates of return for relatively short intervals these findings lead us to be skeptical of recent claims that the stock market s poor performance during the 1970 s can be explained by volatility induced increases in risk premia this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

institutional uncertainty and the maturity of international loans abstract this paper shows that non economic uncertainty in foreign countries contributes to a bias toward short term maturity in international lending frequent government changes and weak institutions explain why some countries find it difficult to obtain long term financing debt maturity is also explained by the level of economic and financial development of a country the composition of loan portfolios in terms of the type of borrowers and debt restructuring programs among other variables the results are obtained using data on international lending by three groups of u s banks large medium sized and small small banks shorten the maturity of their international loans in response to uncertainty to a greater extent compared to large banks

cointegration and tests of purchasing power parity nonstationarity in the levels of spot exchange rates and domestic and foreign price indices makes the use of conventional tests of the absolute version of purchasing power parity ppp inappropriate if ppp is true inter country commodity arbitrage ensures that deviations from a linear combination of spot exchange rates and domestic and foreign price levels should be stationary under these conditions exchange rates and price levels should form a cointegrated system we find the null hypothesis of no cointegration cannot be rejected for all five countries thus violating the long run absolute version of ppp

implications of co2 reduction policies for a high carbon emitting economy this paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to compare the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of three environmental policies in australia an emissions trading scheme ets an ets combined with technological innovation in the renewable energy sector and a fuel tax as an alternative to the ets overall the impacts of the ets were not significantly adverse although the fuel tax had similar impacts to the ets on key macro variables such as real gdp employment household consumption exports and imports it was however not effective compared to the latter in reducing emissions neither policy led to inflation growth of more than 0 8 for any coal mining and non mining australian state at the sectoral level the gdp growth of energy intensive industries such as coal iron ore steel and coal powered electricity generators is adversely affected while electricity generators who use gas and renewable energy sources and the forestry sector gain it was also found that a 10 technological change in the renewable energy sector over a decade did not significantly improve the outcome when coupled with the ets thus the australian government s industry assistance to invest in low pollution technologies needs to be more aggressive to meet current and future international emission abatement targets

searching for stationarity purchasing power parity under the current float abstract using panel data methods we investigate long run purchasing power parity by testing for unit roots in real exchange rates of industrial countries under the current float the evidence against the unit root hypothesis is stronger for larger than for smaller panels for monthly than for quarterly data and when the german mark rather than the united states dollar is used as the base currency while we find that accounting for serial correlation considerably weakens the evidence against the unit root null the results as a whole are consistent with long run purchasing power parity

analysis of interregional industry linkage and economic distance in china evidence from the mining industry abstractthe mining industry is an important sector of the national economy which provides essential support for energy and other resources for economic development industrial linkage and economic distance are two different concepts in measuring the correlationship of different industries in this article we apply the model that combines both of them to analyse the industries significantly influence the mining industry we find that electricity and heating industry and the mining industry itself from forward linkages have greatly influenced the mining industry and the industries from backward linkages affect mining industry are changing with industrial economic transformation we also find resources can flow across several regions only after 2007 which means the role of geographical factors limiting long range transportation of resources is weakening after 2007 and we explain how resources flow among various regions during 1997 2007 based on the findings above policy implications from the empiri

an empirical examination of long run purchasing power parity using cointegration techniques this paper presents an empirical analysis of long run purchasing power parity ppp for five major exchange rates using recently developed econometric techniques on the cointegration of economic time series our empirical results are extremely unfavourable to the ppp hypothesis as a long run equilibrium condition even with an allowance made for measurement error and or tranportation costs in particular we are unable to reject the hypothesis of non cointegration of the exchange rate and relative prices for any of the countries concerned far from finding a stable long run proportionality between exchange rates and relative prices our results therefore suggest that they tend to drift apart without bound

the overvaluation of purchasing power parity abstract recent panel studies of purchasing power parity have reported strong evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates however these studies fail to control for cross sectional dependence in the data this failure has dramatic consequences raising the significance level of tests with a nominal size of 5 percent to as much as 50 percent it is shown in this paper that controlling for cross sectional dependence no evidence against the random walk null can be found in panels of up to 64 real exchange rates this finding cannot be attributed to low power as there is ample power in panels of this size to reject the unit root null