understanding the welfare implications of currency substitution abstract this paper develops a model of endogenous currency substitution where agents decide which purchases will be made with domestic and which with foreign currency in a representative agent economy allowing for this use of alternative means of payments is welfare enhancing the result is an application of ramsey taxation rules by which currency substitution shifts the burden of the inflation tax towards relatively demand inelastic commodities when extending the model to the case in which agents have different productivities we show that inflation has strong income distribution effects with high low income agents benefitting losing when currency substitution is introduced

currency substitution portfolio diversification and money demand we extend the thomas 1985 dynamic optimising model of money demand and currency substitution to the case in which the individual has no access to bonds denominated in foreign currency we show that in this case the demand for domestic money is influenced by portfolio decisions contrary to what defended by the portfolio balance approach to currency substitution the results obtained in this paper suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of currency substitution the results also suggest that in countries facing monetary instability and currency substitution restricting the availability of interest bearing assets denominated in foreign currency may have a destabilising impact on the money demand

variation in the real exchange rate as a source of currency substitution abstract this paper presents a shopping cost money service model in which it is shown that the real exchange rate influences the desired ratio of domestic to foreign currency bank deposits empirically it is found that if the real exchange rate value of the canadian dollar falls then us dollar deposits of canadians rise relative to canadian m2 this relationship is found to be cointegrated dynamic adjustment analyzed using an error correction model indicates a cyclical adjustment the results provide evidence that variation in the real exchange rate is a source of currency substitution and reinforces the argument that demand side factors influence the money stock jel e41

hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution abstract a cash in advance model in which the cost of buying goods with a foreign currency is decreasing in the economy s accumulated experience in transacting in the foreign currency is shown to display hysteresis in money velocity that is a temporary increase in expected inflation can cause a permanent increase in velocity in addition the model implies that the domestic currency does not have to dominate the foreign currency in rate of return to induce agents to stop using the foreign currency finally inflation rates that trigger currency substitution need not be associated with steady states in which the domestic currency disappears from circulation

endogenous currency substitution inflationary finance and welfare in some countries a foreign currency has replaced the domestic one to perform the functions of money this phenomenon is known as currency substitution this paper explores the relationship between currency substitution and inflationary finance in an overlapping generations model in which currency substitution is an endogenous equilibrium outcome the author describes when currency substitution may emerge and shows that it may be a purely expectational phenomenon he uses the model to discuss the welfare effects of inflation and the effects of policies that deal directly with currency substitution cs copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

social class and the spirit of capitalism one of the key social transformations that accompanied the british industrial revolution was the economic decline of the aristocracy standard theories of wealth inequality cannot explain why the aristocrats in spite of their superior wealth and education failed to be the main protagonists and beneficiaries of industrialization we discuss recent research based on a model of endogenous preferences that is consistent with the demise of aristocracy jel 010 040

foreign currency deposits and the demand for money in developing countries abstract this paper examines the relative demands for domestic and foreign currency deposits by residents of developing countries a dynamic currency substitution model that incorporates forward looking rational expectations is specified and estimated for a group of ten developing countries the results indicate that the foreign rate of interest and the expected rate of depreciation of the parallel market exchange rate are important factors in the choice between holding domestic money or foreign currency deposits abroad furthermore the model appears to fit the data better than a conventional partial adjustment model

the rebound effect for heavy industry empirical evidence from china abstract energy efficiency improvement will reduce the effective price of energy services and hence at least partially mitigate original expected energy conservation therefore the magnitude of rebound effect is important for the design and timing of an effective energy conservation policy under the framework of translog cost share equations we estimates the direct rebound effect for heavy industry in china for the first time by conducting an empirical research on the relationship between the direct rebound effect and the ease with which energy services can substitute for other inputs additionally asymmetric price responses are specified in the model for the rebound effect estimation empirical results in our paper indicate that the rebound effect for heavy industry in china is about 74 3 this reveals that energy efficiency improvement can save energy to a certain degree since the rebound effect is less than 100 back fire but most of the expected reduction in heavy industry energy consumption is mitigated these findings prove that energy pricing reforms and energy taxes should be further implemented to achieve effective energy conservation in china s 12th five years plan

international currency substitution and the income velocity of money abstract this paper presents new empirical evidence on the degree to which international currency substitution destabilizes domestic money demand it also provides an explanation of some apparent discrepancies among previous empirical studies of currency substitution this explanation hinges on the distinction between the elasticity of currency substitution and the cross elasticity of money demand a large small value of one elasticity does not imply a large small value of the other a large cross elasticity is required for currency substitution to destabilize domestic money demand the empirical evidence presented here is consistent with the view that these cross elasticities are typically small

currency exchange in a random search model this paper investigates foreign exchange trading a phenomenon that typically accompanies international trade a search theoretic general equilibrium approach is adopted to study a two country two currency model for some parameter values of the model there exist some pure strategy equilibria in which commodity currency trade is conducted primarily through local currency and in which there is active currency currency exchange the coexistence of valued foreign currency and its local non acceptability conforms largely with the country specific cash in advance constraint that is often assumed exogenously in international finance literature

how population and energy price affect china s environmental pollution abstract this paper examines the impact of population and energy price on china s environmental pollution through both industrial and residential channels our theoretical models reveal that the influences of population on environmental pollution are contingent on wage stickiness and wage elasticity we also predict that environment pollution decreases with rising energy price but downward energy price distortion intensifies environmental pollution we test these hypotheses using panel data of 30 chinese provinces from 2001 to 2016 and employing both constant coefficient and time varying coefficient panel data models to conduct analyses our empirical results show that population growth increased urbanization and energy price distortion all intensify environmental pollution while population aging and rising energy price tend to alleviate environmental pollution our results also reveal significant regional and time heterogeneity on the impact of population factors and energy price on china s environmental pollution

on the indeterminacy of equilibrium exchange rates in this paper we consider a particular international economic policy regime the laissez faire regime the distinguishing features of which are unrestricted portfolio choice and floating exchange rates and as we show this regime although favored by many economists is not economically feasible it does not have a determinate equilibrium that is an implication of an overlapping generations model more basically it is an implication of the notion that money is wanted only in order to accomplish trades

the effect of urbanization on co2 emissions in emerging economies the theories of ecological modernization and urban environmental transition both recognize that urbanization can have positive and negative impacts on the natural environment with the net effect being hard to determine a priori this study uses recently developed panel regression techniques that allow for heterogeneous slope coefficients and cross section dependence to model the impact that urbanization has on co2 emissions for a panel of emerging economies the estimated contemporaneous coefficients on the energy intensity and affluence variables are positive statistically significant and fairly similar across different estimation techniques by comparison the estimated contemporaneous coefficient on the urbanization variable is sensitive to the estimation technique in most specifications the estimated coefficient on the urbanization variable is positive but statistically insignificant the implications of these results for sustainable development policy are discussed

on money as a medium of exchange we analyze economies in which individuals specialize in consumption and production and meet randomly over time in a way that implies that trade must be bilateral and quid pro quo nash equilibria in trading strategies are characterized certain goods emerge endogenously as media of exchange or commodity money depending both on their intrinsic properties and on extrinsic beliefs there are also equilibria with genuine fiat currency circulating as the general medium of exchange we find that equilibria are not generally pareto optimal and that introducing fiat currency into a commodity money economy may unambiguously improve welfare velocity acceptability and liquidity are discussed

the currency substitution hypothesis and relative money demand in mexico and canada the author estimates demand for dollars relative to domestic currency in mexico and canada using 1 a multivariate model with a relative money demand equation and 2 single equation models including an error correction representation he also analyzes the models encompassing properties the anomalous correlation between the mexican dollarization ratio and expected peso depreciation implies that convertibility risk was associated with holding mexidollars under this interpretation higher expected depreciation coincides with a drop in relative demand for dollars because there is the possibility that the government will forcibly convert mexdollars when these central bank liabilities rise and foreign reserves run low several testable alternative explanations are rejected copyright 1992 by ohio state university press

dollarization in post hyperinflationary argentina abstract this paper analyzes the continued dollarization of the argentine economy which experienced a rapid decline in inflation following its hyperinflations of the 1980s first a measure of dollar currency circulating in argentina is developed thereby improving upon previous studies of dollarization and currency substitution that focused on dollar deposit holdings only second cointegration analysis of peso money demand in argentina finds a negative ratchet effect from inflation the reduction in peso money demand attributable to the ratchet mirrors the estimated stock of all dollar assets held domestically by argentine residents consistent with the hypothesis of irreversible dollarization

currency substitution and monetary autonomy the foreign demand for us demand deposits abstract this paper presents new evidence of currency substitution using the two step estimator of cointegrated systems developed by engle and granger 1987 we estimate and find cointegration among variables suggested by the money services model of currency substitution following engle et al 1989 we estimate an error correction model for each of five countries allowing isolation of long term from short term influences on the foreign demand for us demand deposits our results suggest that currency substitution is a potentially significant phenomenon influencing long term monetary policy independence

does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower co2 emissions a cross country analysis despite the relationship between urbanization energy use and co2 emissions has been extensively studied in recent years little attention has been paid to differences in development stages or income levels most previous studies have implicitly assumed that the impact of urbanization is homogenous for all countries this assumption can be questionable as there are many characteristic differences among countries of different levels of affluence this paper investigates empirically the effects of urbanization on energy use and co2 emissions with consideration of the different development stages using the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat model and a balanced panel dataset of 99 countries over the period 1975 2005 the findings suggest that the impact of urbanization on energy use and emissions varies across the stages of development surprisingly urbanization decreases energy use in the low income group while it increases energy use in the middle and high income groups the impact of urbanization on emissions is positive for all the income groups but it is more pronounced in the middle income group than in the other income groups these novel findings not only help advance the existing literature but also can be of special interest to policy makers and urban planners

evaluating the empirical evidence for currency substitution a case study of the demand for sterling in europe currency substitution has important implications for the cost of european monetary union if it is significant it will help to reduce costs of convergence to a single currency this paper informs the policy debate by testing for its existence on a consistent european database making use of cointegration methods the results demonstrate that in the two types of models tested there is no clear evidence of currency substitution in either the short or the long run and that therefore currency substitution between sterling and ec currencies cannot be relied upon as a mechanism or an aid to reduce the costs of monetary convergence copyright 1994 by royal economic society

foreign inflation transmission under flexible exchange rates and currency substitution the dynamic and steady state effects of a permanent unanticipated increase in foreign inflation on a small open economy are analyzed under flexible exchange rates and currency substitution the velocity of domestic money and consequently the domestic inflation rate may rise along the transition path to steady state but only if demand for foreign currency is sufficiently elastic such that the substitution from foreign to domestic money on impact is large higher foreign inflation is transmitted negatively when demand is inelastic all else constant a higher initial level of foreign real balances increases the magnitude of the transmission effects copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

gmm estimates of currency substitution between the canadian dollar and the u s dollar this paper investigates the empirical strength of currency substitution between the canadian dollar and the u s dollar euler equations implied by a small open economy money in the utility function model are estimated and tested by hansen s generalized method of moments procedure the major empirical finding is that both the elasticity of currency substitution and the share of u s currency in the production of canadian liquidity services are economically small even though the combined domestic and u s real balances appear to provide statistically significant economizing on transactions costs copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries abstract we analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets our central finding is that tight management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting in a flexible exchange rate system inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy moreover small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post both problems disappear when the central bank fixes the path of the nominal exchange rate or leans heavily against the wind in a managed float

money and prices a model of search and bargaining abstract this paper makes commodities divisible and incorporates bargaining into the search theoretic model of money to determine the purchasing power of money or price it is shown that two monetary equilibria always coexist where fiat money is universally accepted the two equilibria differ in price output welfare and the velocity of money sunspot monetary equilibria exist in which money is universally accepted in all states of the economy multiplicity has novel implications on the effectiveness of currency substitution and exchange market intervention journal of economic literature classification numbers c78 e40

currency substitution capital mobility and money demand abstract this paper re examines the currency substitution cs issue by specifying a general portfolio balance pb model where domestic residents demand for foreign money is distinguished from their demands for foreign non monetary assets the latter possibility which reflects international capital mobility as opposed to cs per se is already a key feature in the open economy macro literature the inclusion of foreign money leaves the usual asset demand functions unchanged in the pb model that ignores cs at least as far as the appropriate rate of return arguments and their signs are concerned although this suggests that cs is of limited importance in macro modelling it implication for the estimation of money demand functions is pursued an initial attempt is made to empirically isolate the separate efects of high capital mobility and currency substitution for canada germany the united kingdom and the united states the results while not conclusive due to high multicollinearity problems bring into question the empirical as well as the theoretical relevance of currency substitution

the dynamics of inflation and currency substitution in a small open economy abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between money and inflation in a small open economy where domestic and foreign currencies are perfect substitutes as means of payment it is shown that if the path of domestic money supply is such that individuals find it optimal to change the currency in which transactions are settled there will be an adjustment period during which domestic inflation adjusts to equal the foreign inflation rate the model captures the stylized fact that temporary increases in the inflation rate may have permanent effects in the use of foreign currency even without the introduction of dollarization costs

currency substitution and exchange rate instability the turkish case abstract in this paper we present evidence for the extent of currency substitution and its effects on exchange rate instability in turkey following the capital account liberalization in 1987 the private sector has responded to the failed stabilization efforts of successive governments by requesting higher real interest rates on government debt and by increasing its holdings of foreign exchange at the expense of domestic currency theoretical models of exchange rate determination indicate that exchange rate instability increases with the degree of currency substitution we use an exponential garch e garch model for exchange rate depreciation and find evidence in support of this hypothesis furthermore we test for the extent of currency substitution in determining short run dynamics of real money balances utilizing the expected depreciation series obtained from the e garch model

portfolio theory and currency substitution one of the major reasons friedman 1953 and johnson 1972 advocated flexible exchange rates was to eliminate supply side monetary substitutability which can incapacitate domestic monetary policy however contributors to the currency substitution literature including miles 1978 girton and roper 1981 and mckinnon 1982 have argued that when economic agents hold both domestic and foreign monies variations in foreign interest rates or expected future exchange rates can make domestic money demand functions unstable as economic agents shift resources in response to changes in prospective relative returns as a result they and others have claimed that flexible exchange rates may not secure domestic monetary autonomy l the major purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the conditions under which foreign and domestic monies are substitutes in demand when economic agents have motives to hold both and to contrast the determinants of currency substitutability with those of the more general concept of asset substitutability importantly it is demonstrated that the usual portfolio theoretic justification for including opportunity cost variables such as foreign interest rates foreign inflation rates or expected

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed

the optimal inflation tax in the presence of currency substitution abstract an important result in the optimal inflation tax literature is that if money is modeled as reducing transactions costs the optimal nominal interest rate is zero this paper examines this issue in the context of a small open economy where both domestic and foreign currency circulate as media of exchange it is shown that the presence of foreign money enables the government to reduce the distortion introduced into the economy by a positive foreign nominal interest rate by setting a positive domestic nominal interest rate