tariffs versus ratio quotas under duopoly abstract this paper presents a conjectural variations model of a duopoly to investigate the question of the equivalence of tariffs and ratio quotas it is shown that whether or not tariffs and ratio quotas are equivalent is crucially dependent upon i the particular value of the conjectural variations parameter and ii the target ratio of imports to domestic production in question therefore the monopolistic behavior of the domestic firm over consumers does not necessarily result in non equivalence this paper also demonstrates that the price under a ratio quota is always higher than that under a volume quota

why voluntary export restraints are voluntary the paper presents an analysis of the effect upon an oligopolistic equilibrium of introducing a voluntary export restraint ver upon an importing firm a ver set at the free trade level of imports is shown to raise the profits of all firms within the industry the result follows as the imposition of a ver upon a free trade nash price competition forces the domestic firm to become an industry price leader the ver raises industry prices by facilitating collusion and lowers consumer welfare pourquoi les restrictions volontaires d 1 exportation sont volontaires ce memoire presente une analyse des effets de l introduction de restrictions volontaires a l exportation rve sur une entreprise qui importe dans un monde en equilibre oligopolistique on montre que l introduction de rve approximant le niveau des importations en regime de libre echange devrait augmenter les profits de toutes les entreprises dans l industrie cela decoule du fait que l imposition de rve sur un univers de concurrence par les prix a la nash en regime de libre echange force l entreprise domestique a devenir le leader en prix l introduction de rve augmente le niveau des prix de l industrie en facilitant la collusion et de ce fait reduit le niveau de bien etre des consomrnateurs

the case of the vanishing revenues auction quotas with oligopoly this paper examines the effects of auctioning quota licenses when monopoly power exists here the sales of licenses will never raise any revenue if domestic and foreign markets are segmented more surprisingly the inability to raise revenue is shown to persist even when arbitrage across markets is possible as long as the quota is not too far from the free trade import level this suggests that existing revenue estimates from auctioning quota licenses which are based on the assumption of competition are upwardly biased it also makes it likely that quotas implemented by auctioning licenses even when set optimally have adverse welfare effects copyright 1990 by american economic association

is the wto passe the wto has delivered policy outcomes that are very different from those likely to emerge out of the recent wave of preferential trade agreements ptas should economists see this as an efficient institutional hand off where the wto has carried trade liberalization as far as it can manage and is now passing the baton to ptas to finish the job this paper surveys a growing economics literature on international trade agreements and argues on this basis that the wto is not passe rather and subject to some caveats this survey of research to date suggests that the wto warrants strong support while a more cautious view of ptas seems appropriate

symmetric pass through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition an empirical test abstract this paper examines the effect of tariffs and exchange rates on u s prices of japanese cars trucks and motorcycles in particular we test whether the long run pass through of tariffs and exchange rates are identical the symmetry hypothesis we find that this hypothesis is easily accepted in our sample we also find that the pass through relation varies across products ranging from about 0 6 for trucks to unity for motorcycles these coefficients have very different implications for trade policy we explain the results based on demand cost and institutional conditions in each industry

exchange rate policy and wage formation in an economy with many trade unions abstract exchange rate policy may confront governments with an important credibility problem while there is usually a long run gain from abstaining from devaluations there may also be a short run benefit from a devaluation this short run benefit may cause expectations of future devaluations resulting in wage and price rises that make the expectations self fulfilling this issue is analysed within a model with many trade unions if the government pursues a non devaluation policy the trade unions gain from voluntary wage restraint however if the non devaluation policy isn t credible the cooperation on wage restraint may break down

uncertainty and monetary policy in a wage bargaining model in a wage bargaining model increased uncertainty concerning monetary and real aggregates is shown to give rise to a higher equilibrium unemployment rate moreover the equilibrium unemployment rate is found to depend on the choice of monetary policy regime as this choice affects the uncertainty wage setters face when setting the nominal wage rate it is also shown that the equilibrium inflation rate may depend on uncertainty in such a way that increased uncertainty gives rise to a higher equilibrium unemployment rate as well as a higher equilibrium inflation rate or what has been called stagflation

exchange rate policy wage formation and credibility abstract since the collapse of the bretton woods system some european countries have pursued discretionary exchange rate policies in order to maintain or enhance the international competitiveness of the traded goods sector these countries which typically feature centralized wage setting have also tended to experience high nominal wage increases the overall outcome may be described as a devaluation wage spiral this paper applies two models of repeated games to analyze the strategic interaction between an exchange rate setting policy maker and a wage setting trade union it is shown how a devaluation wage spiral may result from a conflict of interest over the real wage it is also shown how reputational forces may provide a way out of the devaluation wage spiral

night lights in economics sources and uses1 night lights as detected by satellites are increasingly used by economists typically as a proxy for economic activity the growing popularity of these data reflects either the absence or the presumed inaccuracy of more conventional economic statistics like national or regional gdp further growth in use of night lights is likely as they have been included in the aiddata geo query tool for providing sub national data and in geographic data that the demographic and health survey links to anonymised survey enumeration areas yet this ease of obtaining night lights data may lead to inappropriate use if users fail to recognize that most of the satellites providing these data were not designed to assist economists and have features that may threaten validity of analyses based on these data especially for temporal comparisons and for small and rural areas in this paper we review sources of satellite data on night lights discuss issues with these data and survey some of their uses in economics

tariffs quotas and terms of trade the case of new zealand abstract this paper reports quantitative information on the effects of tariffs and quotas on prices of individual goods the analyses uses the natural experiment provided by a comprehensive unilateral trade policy reform in new zealand to examine the response of foreign exporters to an incident of liberalisation that is unique in the developed world the price effects of tariffs and quotas are estimated using a multidestination 7 digit longitudinal product level dataset on export values and quantities the effects are found to be by no means equivalent whereas tariffs display no significant effect the impact that quantitative restrictions have on the terms of trade of the country that imposes them are unequivocally detrimental and quantitatively important

price discrimination by u s and german exporters the insensitivity of the u s trade balance to the sharp depreciation of the dollar in the past three years has revived interest in the relationship between exchange rates and the trade balance a central issue in most analyses of the relation between the current account and the exchange rate concerns the price adjustment process the simple integrated competitive market model predicts that local currency prices should change in proportion to the nominal exchange rate for a country too small to influence world prices the relationship between local currency import prices and exchange rates has been referred to as the pass through relationship in the empirical literature in international economics if the proportional relationship between import prices and exchange rates holds pass through is said to be complete accounts of recent u s experience cite the failure of dollar prices of imported goods to rise in proportion to exchange rates i e incomplete pass through as an important factor in explaining the persistence of the trade deficit unfortunately observations on pass through alone provide limited insight into the behavior of markets since incomplete pass through is consistent with at least two fundamentally different paradigms one is the standard competitive model of trade in which the law of one price holds but exchange rate fluctuations are associated with large changes in import demand due to other factors for example if dollar appreciation is correlated with increases in world demand and industry marginal cost is increasing then pass through will be less than complete the other is an imperfectly competitive model in which exporters are capable of price discriminating across destination markets a phenomenon paul krugman 1987 has labeled pricing to market in this model incomplete pass through is typically associated with fluctuations in the markup of price over marginal cost on exports 2 these fluctuations in markups are believed to be countryspecific they do not reflect the behavior of prices to other export destinations both models are plausible explanations of recent u s experience unfortunately it is impossible to distinguish between these competing models using only information on import prices and exchange rates for a single country in order to distinguish between the competing models an empirical analysis of goods prices and exchange rates must be capable of measuring either marginal cost or the markup over marginal cost either of these tasks poses formidable empirical problems much of the empirical literature in industrial organization has been concerned with precisely these issues since markups are an important measure of the competitiveness of industries

hyperbolic discounting and the phillips curve using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model we show that the interaction of staggered nominal contracts with hyperbolic discounting leads to inflation having significant long run effects on real variables

monetary institutions monopolistic competition unionized labor markets and economic performance recent literature on the interactions between labor unions and monetary institutions features either a supply or a demand channel of monetary policy but not both this leads to two opposing views about the effects of central bank conservativeness we evaluate the relative merits of those conflicting views by developing a unified framework we find that i the effect of conservativeness on employment depends on unions relative aversion to unemployment versus inflation and ii for plausible values of this relative aversion and more than one union social welfare is maximized under a highly conservative central bank we also evaluate the effects of centralization of wage bargaining and product market competition on unemployment and inflation

multiple wage bargaining systems in the single european currency area little attention in the emu literature has been paid to the interaction between central bank monetary rules and systems of collective wage bargaining analytically and empirically coordinated wage bargaining systems respond with real wage restraint to non accommodating monetary policy since wage determination is dominated by collective bargaining in all the emu member states and wage coordination within the member states has grown since 1980 this is a topic of potential importance in particular the replacement of the bundesbank directly targeting german inflation by an ecb targeting european inflation has removed a major institutional support of wage restraint in germany the consequences of this for emu are worked out under two scenarios that inflation expectations will be generated by ecb monetary policy and that they will reflect german inflation outcomes possible institutional developments are discussed including government union bargains the bundesbank has also played a major role in maintaining fiscal rectitude by targeting excess fiscal deficits in germany again its replacement by the ecb targeting if at all european rather than german fiscal policy loosens fiscal constraints for underlying structural reasons therefore it is possible that germany and other emu countries will move to a period of fiscal activism with wage restraint and low inflation purchased through social contract negotiations

stabilisation policy targets and unemployment in imperfectly competitive economies this paper argues that the rate of equilibrium unemployment depends on the objectives of the central bank in a model where the central bank uses monetary policy to stabilise the economy we show that unemployment and inflation will be lower with an inflation target than with targets for output money or nominal gdp the intuition for this is that the elasticities of demand in both the product and the labour markets are greater when there is an inflation target we show that this leads to a lower mark up of price over marginal cost and makes wages more sensitive to unemployment

labour markets and monetary union a strategic analysis this paper shows that the effects of a monetary union depend on several labour market features in particular the switch from national monetary policies to a common monetary policy usually affects both inflation and unemployment even when all structural parameters of the economy and of unions and policymakers preferences remain the same the benchmark case of a monetary union between identical countries suggests that the switch to a monetary union is likely to make labour unions more aggressive increasing unemployment qualifications to this result are provided under alternative institutional scenarios like cross country asymmetries pre union erm membership and wage leadership

union cooperation and nontraded goods in general equilibrium a general equilibrium model of a small open economy with traded and nontraded goods and sector specific trade unions is set up wage formation is either noncooperative or cooperative egalitarian union wage policy is shown to be the equilibrium under cooperation important asymmetries are encountered and an alternative model of cooperative behavior called bargaining cooperation is proposed bargaining cooperation is shown to have qualitatively different implications than simple cooperation the welfare and employment effects of bargaining cooperation compared to simple cooperation are ambiguous

disaggregated economic impact analysis incorporating ecological and social trade offs and techno institutional context a case from the western ghats of india economic valuation of ecosystem benefits and their aggregation in a benefit cost analysis bca framework is the norm in mainstream environmental economics but valuation and bca have also attracted criticisms internal criticisms point to the absence of alternative scenarios in valuation overlooking of ecological trade offs and dis services and inattention to context others criticize aggregation across diverse stakeholders and the problem of non monetizable benefits and dismiss bca as fatally flawed they suggest approaches such as deliberative decision making and multi criteria analysis we propose a middle path that uses the strengths of economic analysis for decision support while avoiding the pitfalls we disaggregate economic impacts by stakeholder groups link ecosystem changes to benefits as well as dis benefits and examine how socio technological context shapes the magnitude of economic impact we illustrate this approach by studying the impact of creating the biligiri rangaswamy temple wildlife sanctuary in the western ghats forests of southern india our analysis shows that while some stakeholders are net beneficiaries others are net losers changes in forest rights irrigation technologies and ecosystem dynamics influence the magnitude of benefits and sometimes convert gainers into losers such disaggregated analysis can provide useful information for deliberative decision making and important academic insights on how economic value is generated

tariffs quotas and market structure this paper examines the effects of tariffs and quotas on the pricing pattern of producers in the case of duopoly by a domestic monopolist and a foreign monopolist it is pointed out that tariffs and quotas may induce completely different pricing patterns in the two producers under a quota it is always profitable for the home producer to be a price leader and for the foreign producer to be a follower whereas under a tariff either producer may become a leader it is also proved that whatever leader follower relation is chosen under a tariff a quota always bring about a higher domestic price than the tariff as long as both permit the same amount of imports

trade restrictions as facilitating practices abstract the effect of quantitative restrictions in oligopolistic markets is shown to depend on whether imports are substitutes or complements for domestic products in the former case they have profound effects even when set at free trade levels because they impede the ability of the foreign firm to compete in the domestic market thereby acting to facilitate collusion and raise prices and profits for this reason tariffs and quotas are fundamentally non equivalent with substitute goods when goods are complements a voluntary export restriction ver at the free trade level has no effect and tariffs and quotas are equivalent

did the strong dollar increase competition in u s product markets sunk cost models of new trade theory have demonstrated that large unanticipated swings in currency values can have permanent effects on trade flows by altering market structure in imperfectly competitive markets the author tests an implication of these models using panel data on export unit values from germany and japan to a number of foreign markets including the united states he finds weak evidence in support of the thesis that u s product markets became more competitive as a result of the large dollar appreciation of the 1980s although the results vary by industry and comparison country copyright 1994 by mit press

estimating worldwide life satisfaction abstract whilst studies of life satisfaction are becoming more common place their global coverage is far from complete this paper develops a new database of life satisfaction scores for 178 countries bringing together subjective well being data from four surveys and using stepwise regression to estimate scores for nations where no subjective data are available in doing so we explore various factors that predict between nation variation in subjective life satisfaction building on vemuri and costanza s vemuri a w costanza r 2006 the role of human social built and natural capital in explaining life satisfaction at the country level toward a national well being index nwi ecological economics 58 119 133 four capitals model the main regression model explains 76 of variation in existing subjective scores importantly this includes poorer nations that had proven problematic in vemuri and costanza s vemuri a w costanza r 2006 the role of human social built and natural capital in explaining life satisfaction at the country level toward a national well being index nwi ecological economics 58 119 133 study natural human and socio political capitals are all found to be strong predictors of life satisfaction built capital operationalised as gdp did not enter our regression model being overshadowed by the human capital and socio political capital factors that it inter correlates with the final database presents a stop gap resource that until robust surveys are carried out worldwide allows comparisons of subjective life satisfaction between nations to be made with reasonable confidence

relative prices in monetary union and floating we analyse a small open economy with a tradable and a sheltered sector if the unions that operate in each sector coordinate their wage demands sectorwise the choice of monetary regime floating cum inflation target vs emu may affect the relative wages and prices of the economy we show that emu results in lower prices for tradable goods and lower real wages in the traded sector while opposite results hold for sheltered sector prices and wages thus if large unions behave strategically the choice of monetary regime has far reaching structural implications

oligopolistic competition and international trade quantity and quality restrictions abstract we examine trade restrictions such as quantity and quality limitations on imports in an oligopolistic industry consisting of foreign and domestic firms we find that the effects of trade policy hinge on the location of the quality produced by the firms in the quality spectrum a quota leads to positive protection while minimum quality standards leads to negative protection furthermore minimum standards lower national welfare and a quota has an ambiguous effect on welfare

macroeconomic policy wage setting and employment what difference does the emu make the likely impact of the emu on the variability and level of employment is analysed the major conclusions are 1 although an inflation target regime will constrain monetary policy of a non parti

policy credibility and inflation in a wage setting game this paper combines the conventional monetary policy game with a wage setting game among several non cooperating wage setters each with some monopoly power the inflationary bias in market economies is explained in terms of the wage competition bias this bias does not disappear even when the central bank communicates its policy goals precisely and credibly in a policy game with several non cooperative monopolistic wage setters and a central bank if discretionary policy is interpreted as wage setters being stackelberg leaders relative to the central bank a discretionary policy leads to both higher inflation and lower output

trade policy and its impact on quality of imports this paper examines the role of trade policies in influencing a foreign monopolist s decision on price quantity and in particular the quality of its product we show that a specific tariff leads to higher quality whereas an ad valorem tariff usually does the opposite quotas and specific tariffs are shown to be equivalent and both dominate an ad valorem tariff in terms of welfare we also show that subjecting imports to minimum quality requirements hampers national welfare finally we present a comprehensive ranking of all the policy instruments considered in this paper

tariffs vs quotas under duopoly of heterogeneous goods abstract this paper analyzes a model of duopoly with heterogeneous goods where behavior patterns are endogenously determined by producers it is shown that the source of non equivalence of tariffs and quotas is not the monopolistic behavior of the domestic producer over consumers but a certain kind of his behavior against the foreign producers this result is then extended to the cases of a general nash type oligopoly and monopolistic competition the paper also examines how the behavior patterns of the producers are affected by tariffs and quotas and proves non equivalence of tariffs and quotas in the duopoly situation where the pricing behavior of the producers is endogenously determined by trade policies

coastal disasters from the perspective of ecological economics natural hazards are recurrent events that frequently result in high death tolls and large economic losses because of their large impact they have concerned the international community for a long time in spite of the efforts the impact of natural hazards has increased oftentimes the role of natural ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide to human societies are not considered in risk reduction programs how relevant are ecosystems what are the consequences of the depletion of natural ecosystems and the loss of ecosystem services provided by them would the alternative vision of ecological economics in which development and economy are seen as the whole the ecosystem daly h e and farley j 2004 ecological economics principles and applications island press washington dc 454 pp be helpful in reducing disaster risk in this paper we are set to test whether a holistic approach from the perspective of ecological economics is helpful to clarify and reduce the impact of natural hazards we focused on hurricanes because they are the most frequently reported events of all natural disasters hewitt k 1997 regions of risk longman edinburgh gate 389 pp we analyze the relationship between the components of human built social and natural capitals with the damage caused by hurricanes in terms of mortality rate we then generate a conceptual model to help envision the complexity of the system a stepwise back and forth steps linear regression analysis revealed that mortality rate was significantly and positively affected by hurricane frequency p 0 01 while area covered by semi altered ecosystems a mosaic of natural and human altered ecosystems p 0 01 and gdp p 0 05 negatively affected mortality rate r2 0 81 the proportion of natural altered ecosystems yielding the best protection results needs to be determined yet natural capital alone does not decrease number of deaths rather its complex interactions with the other capitals and the many feedback loops that are involved need to be considered to achieve effective disaster risk reduction no single capital is enough to reduce the impact and intensity of natural hazard a balance between human built social and natural capitals and an increasing awareness of the consequences of different development decisions will help human societies to live with rather than cope with coastal hazards

sustainability of nations by indices comparative study between environmental sustainability index ecological footprint and the emergy performance indices abstract the present work makes a comparison between the two most used environmental sustainability indices of nations ecological footprint and environmental sustainability index with two emergy ratios renewability and emergy sustainability index all of them are gaining space within the scientific community and government officials despite the efforts for obtaining an index that adequately represents the sustainability of a region according to the result of this research nowadays there is not yet a completely satisfactory index we consider that all of them need to be improved but the results point out the possibility of obtaining one better index of sustainability through the junction of ecological footprint with renewability emergy index

why voluntary export restraints are voluntary an extension this paper presents a conjectural variation approach to examine the conditions under which voluntary export restraints are voluntary th e authors have shown that the value of the conjectural variation is a critical factor for determining the effects of voluntary export restraints in particular if the free trade equilibrium is more collusive than cournot the imposition of voluntary export restraints at the free trade level of imports leads to a reduction in the profit of the foreign firm unde r such circumstances voluntary export restraints are involuntary which is contrary to r harris s 1985 assertion

aid and growth at the regional level this paper brings the aid effectiveness debate to the sub national level we hypothesize the non robust results regarding the effects of aid on development in the previous literature to arise due to the effects of aid being insufficiently large to measurably affect aggregate outcomes using geo coded data for world bank aid to a maximum of 2 221 first level administrative regions adm1 and 54 167 second level administrative regions adm2 in 130 countries over the 2000 2011 period we test whether aid affects development measured as nighttime light growth our preferred identification strategy exploits variation arising from interacting a variable that indicates whether or not a country has passed the threshold for receiving ida s concessional aid with a recipient region s probability to receive aid in a sample of 478 adm1 regions and almost 8 400 adm2 regions from 21 countries controlling for the levels of the interacted variables the interaction provides a powerful and excludable instrument overall we find significant correlations between aid and growth in adm2 regions but no causal effects acknowledgements this paper is part of a research project on macroeconomic policy in low income countries supported by the u k department for international development dfid the views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the imf imf policy or dfid we thank andrea presbitero seminar participants at the development research group meeting at the university of goettingen the conference on financing for development geneva 2015 and the centre for the studies of african economies conference oxford 2015 for helpful comments and jamie parsons for proofreading

the nonneutrality of monetary policy with large price or wage setters monetary rules matter for the equilibrium rate of employment when the number of price wage setters is small even when assuming rational expectations complete information central bank precommitment and absence of nominal rigidities if the central bank is nonaccommodating sufficiently large unions bargaining independently have an incentive to moderate sectoral money wages and thereby expected real wages the result is an increase in the real money supply and hence higher demand and employment this does not hold with accommodating monetary policy since unions wage decisions cannot then affect the real money supply a similar argument holds for large monopolistically competitive price setters

pattern bargaining and wage leadership in a small open economy pattern bargaining where the tradables manufacturing sector acts as wage leader is a common form of wage bargaining in europe our results question the conventional wisdom that such a bargaining set up produces wage restraint we find that all forms of pattern bargaining give the same macroeconomic outcomes as uncoordinated bargaining under inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate under monetary union a fixed exchange rate wage leadership for the non tradables sector is conducive to wage restraint and high employment whereas wage leadership for the tradables sector is not loss aversion and comparison thinking in wage setting where unions evaluate the utility of the wages of their members relative to a wage norm may lead the follower to set the same wage as the leader such equilibria can arise when the leader sector is the smaller sector and promote high employment

the role of human social built and natural capital in explaining life satisfaction at the country level toward a national well being index nwi this paper investigates the contributions to life satisfaction of four basic types of capital human social built and natural life satisfaction data were available for respondents from fifty seven countries from the world values survey over the decade of the 1990s data on proxies for human social built and natural capital were available for 171 countries using data from the 1998 united nations human development report united nations development programme 1998 human development report 1998 oxford university press new york freedom house 1999 freedom house 1999 news of the century press freedom 1999 freedom house http freedomhouse org pfs99 pfs99 pdf september 30 2003 and sutton and costanza 2002 sutton p costanza r 2002 global estimates of market and non market values derived from nighttime satellite imagery land cover and ecosystem service valuation ecol econ 41 509 527 regression models show that both the un human development index hdi which includes proxies for both built and human capital and an index of the value of ecosystem services per km 2 as a proxy for natural capital are important factors in explaining life satisfaction at the country level and together can explain 72 of the variation in life satisfaction we did not find a proxy for social capital that was a significant predictor in the regression models this was due to the inadequacy of available proxy variables for social capital at the national scale and intercorrelation with other variables we discuss data limitations and a range of other problems with the existing limited data along with methods to overcome some of these limitations to improve future analyses we propose a national well being index nwi based on our findings and describe a path to improve it over time d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

tariffs versus quotas with endogenous quality this paper analyzes the effects and desirability of tariffs quotas and quality controls when the quality of the imported good is endogenous and the foreign producer is a monopolist a crucial determinant of the direction of these effects is shown to be the valuation of increments in quality by the marginal consumer relative to that of all consumers on average a way of comparing infinitesimal equivalent policies is developed and used to compare import equivalent policies

monetary regimes and the co ordination of wage setting abstract a recent literature argues that a strict monetary regime may reduce equilibrium unemployment by disciplining wage setters as wage setters abstain from raising wages to avoid a monetary contraction however in this literature the wage setters are assumed not to co ordinate their wage setting the present paper argues that precisely because a strict monetary regime may discipline the unco ordinated wage setting thus lowering unemployment in the unco ordinated outcome it also reduces wage setters incentives to co ordinate it is shown that an accommodating monetary regime may reduce equilibrium unemployment via the strengthening of the wage setters incentives to co ordinate

the political economy of international trade enduring puzzles and an agenda for inquiry a similar set of concepts has been central to the literatures on the formation of trade policy coalitions and the new economics of institutions the political and economic consequences of the degree to which assets are specific to a particular economic activity in this survey the authors take the necessary first step of summarizing the main findings of these two literatures and then suggest ways in which the issue might be joined in addition to providing a more coherent understanding of the findings of these two literatures and some new directions for them the authors show that many puzzles remain in the field of trade politics puzzles for which there are no appealing answers or where there are answers no strong evidence in support of them this essay then in addition to being a theoretical review of the literature puts forward an agenda for future study of international trade politics

shedding light on the shadow economy a nighttime light approach abstractmeasuring the shadow economy is inherently difficult but critical for understanding economic development using census data on formal and informal sectors in cambodia we document that 96 6 per cent of non farm establishments do not formally register with the government and their sales accounted for 76 6 per cent of total sales in 2011 estimating their past sales from changes in nighttime light for 1993 2010 we find that both formal and informal firms increased their estimated sales the share of informal sales increased from 68 8 per cent in 1993 to 76 6 per cent in 2011 suggesting that the informal sector increased quantitatively in both absolute and relative terms over time

wage setting under different monetary regimes in an economy with large wage setters like industry unions the monetary regime affects the trade off between consumer real wages and employment and profits faced by the wage setters this paper shows that an exchange rate target including participation in a monetary union is likely to involve lower wages in the traded sector and higher wages in the non traded sector than does a price target an exchange rate target also involves higher prices on non traded goods relative to on traded goods overall welfare is likely to be higher under a price target

do we really care about biodiversity this paper addresses from an economic perspective the issue of global biodiversity conservation it challenges the perception that the world really cares a great deal about biodiversity and is prepared to pay the full cost of maintaining this stock of natural capital despite the existence of a plethora of international agreements there still seems to be a global deficit of care surrounding efforts to combat challenges such as those posed by global warming and biodiversity conservation more light can be thrown on the degree of care by measuring both the actual expenditures and the stated willingness to pay for biodiversity conservation however actual expenditures are much lower than willingness to pay estimates recorded in the published literature using the criteria that the right amount of conservation effort is one where the marginal economic benefits from conservation just equal the marginal costs of conservation the paper explores the biodiversity conservation conundrum and concluded that on the available evidence the world does not care too much about this natural capital stock and bequests to future generations

economic shocks and civil conflict at the regional level we study the effects of economic shocks on civil conflict at the subnational level using a panel dataset of 5689 administrative regions from 53 african countries with yearly observations from 1992 to 2010 we find that economic shocks measured by nighttime light intensity and instrumented by lagged rainfall levels and droughts increase the probability of civil conflict

product differentiation and oligopoly in international markets the case of the u s automobile industry this paper develops and estimates a model of the u s automobile industry on the demand side a discrete choice model is adopted that is estimated using micro data from the consumer expenditure survey the estimation results are used in conjunction with population weights to derive aggregate demand on the supply side the automobile industry is modelled as an oligopoly with product differentiation equilibrium is characterized by the first order conditions of the profit maximizing firms the estimation results are used in counterfactual simulations to investigate two trade policy issues the effects of the ver and exchange rate pass through

the production relocation and price effects of u s trade policy the case of washing machines we estimate the price effect of us import restrictions on washers the 2012 and 2016 antidumping duties against south korea and china were accompanied by downward or minor price movements along with production relocation to other export platform countries with the 2018 tariffs on nearly all source countries the price of washers increased nearly 12 percent interestingly the price of dryers not subject to tariffs increased by an equivalent amount factoring in dryer prices and price increases by domestic brands the 2018 tariffs on washers imply a tariff elasticity of consumer prices of above one

global estimates of market and non market values derived from nighttime satellite imagery land cover and ecosystem service valuation we estimated global marketed and non marketed economic value from two classified satellite images with global coverage at 1 km2 resolution gdp a measure of marketed economic output is correlated with the amount of light energy le emitted by that nation as measured by nighttime satellite images le emitted is more spatially explicit than whole country gdp may for some nations or regions be a more accurate indicator of economic activity than gdp itself can be directly observed and can be easily updated on an annual basis as far as we know this is the first global map of estimated economic activity produced at this high spatial resolution 1 km2 ecosystem services product esp is an important type of non marketed value esp at 1 km2 resolution was estimated using the igbp land cover dataset and unit ecosystem service values estimated by costanza et al valuing ecosystem services with efficiency fairness and sustainability as goals nature s services island press washington dc pp 49 70 the sum of these two gdp esp sep is a measure of the subtotal ecological economic product marketed plus a significant portion of the non marketed the ratio esp sep 100 esp is a measure of proportion of the sep from ecosystem services both sep and esp were calculated and mapped for each 1 km2 pixel on the earth s surface and aggregated by country results show the detailed spatial patterns of gdp esp and sep also available at http www du edu psutton esiindexisee ecoleconesi htm globally while gdp is concentrated in the northern industrialized countries esp is concentrated in tropical regions and in wetlands and other coastal systems esp ranges from 1 for belgium and luxembourg to 3 for the netherlands 18 for india 22 for the united states 49 for costa rica 57 for chile 73 for brazil and 92 for russia while gdp per capita has the usual northern industrialized countries at the top of the list sep per capita shows a quite different picture with a mixture of countries with either high gdp capita high esp capita or a combination near the top of the list finally we compare our results with two other indices 1 the 2001 environmental sustainability index esi derived as an initiative of the global leaders of tomorrow environment task force world economic forum and 2 ecological footprints of nations how much nature do they use how much nature do they have developed by mathis wackernagel and others while both of these indices purport to measure sustainability the esi is actually mainly a measure of economic activity and is correlated with gdp while the eco footprint index is a measure of environmental impact the related eco deficit national ecological capacity minus national footprint correlates well with esp

central bank independence centralization of wage bargaining inflation and unemployment theory and some evidence abstract this paper proposes a conceptual framework to investigate the effects of central bank independence of the degree of centralization of wage bargaining and of the interaction between those institutional variables on real wages unemployment and inflation in a framework in which unions are averse to inflation this aversion moderates union s wage demands as they attempt to induce the central bank to inflate at a lower rate an increase in the degree of centralization of wage bargaining a decrease in the number of unions triggers two opposite effects on real wages unemployment and inflation it reduces the substitutability between the labor of different unions and therefore the degree of effective competition between them this reduced competition effect raises real wages unemployment and inflation but the decrease in the number of unions also strengthens the moderating effect of inflationary fears on the real wage demands of each union this strategic effect lowers real wages unemployment and inflation for sufficiently inflation averse unions the interaction between those two effects produces a calmfors driffill type relation between real wages and centralization the paper analyzes the effects of central bank independence on the position and the shape of this relation as well as on inflation and unemployment the paper features two mechanisms one of which is novel through which monetary institutions have real effects the model implies that if there is a single union social welfare is maximized when the central bank attaches a zero weight to inflation but when the number of unions is larger than one this result is no longer true in general empirical evaluation of some of the theoretical implications using data from 19 developed economies is for the most part supportive of those implications

international comparisons of pricing to market behavior this paper measures the degree of price discrimination across export destinations that is associated with exchange rate changes using u s u k german and japanese industry level data given the industries sampled more price discrimination across destinations is observed in the u k german and japanese data for industries that match across source countries however behavior is very similar across source countries furthermore destination specific price adjustment on exports to the united states from germany and japan is similar to price adjustment observed on shipments to other destinations most variation in the data appears to be related to industry copyright 1993 by american economic association