book reviewwho needs to open the capital account olivier jeanne arvind subramanian john williamson peterson institute for international economics 2012

the international transmission of interest rate shocks the federal reserve and emerging markets in latin america and asia abstract this paper analyzes the effects of changes in the u s federal reserve s federal funds rate on emerging countries interest rates using high frequency weekly data i also investigate how changes in the u s term structure affect short term rates differentials other shocks include changes in the u s dollar euro exchange rate changes in the international price of oil risk ratings and the degree of capital mobility the results indicate that there is a strong and fairly rapid transmission of changes in the federal funds rate into interest rates in the latin american countries in the sample this effect is equally large in the asian nations in the long run the adjustment path is different across the two regions however adjustment is very fast and cyclical in latin america it is gradual and slower in east asia

capital controls capital flow contractions and macroeconomic vulnerability abstract in this paper i analyze whether restrictions to capital mobility reduce vulnerability to external shocks more specifically i ask if countries that restrict the free flow of international capital have a lower probability of experiencing a large contraction in net capital flows i use three new indexes on the degree of international financial integration and a large multi country data set for 1970 2004 to estimate a series of random effect probit equations i find that the marginal effect of higher capital mobility on the probability of a capital flow contraction is positive and statistically significant but very small having a flexible exchange rate greatly reduces the probability of experiencing a capital flow contraction the benefits of flexible rates increase as the degree of capital mobility increases a higher current account deficit increases the probability of a capital flow contraction while a higher ratio of fdi to gdp reduces that probability

integracao financeira e reformas institucionais this article intends to analyze the collateral impacts of financial integration process emphasizing its eects on the incentives to the promotion of countries institutional reforms the study tests the hypothesis that capital account openness can stimulate institutional reforms to increase economic freedom and reduce the political and the economic transaction risks given that it represents a channel for punishment to the adoption of policies considered not appropriate by the market the result of our sample with 39 developing and developed countries are favorable evidences of this hypothesis the study also indicates that the index capturing the institutions quality has significant changes for three periods after the year the country is considered financially integrated

ready for capital account convertibility abstract this paper investigates whether the impact of capital account convertibility on the long term volatility of economic growth depends on financial development it estimates a system of three simultaneous equations mean growth volatility of growth and financial development this allows for the study of both the impact of capital account liberalization on volatility as well as its direct impact on financial development results indicate that economies with low financial development fall prey to excess volatility arising from capital account openness while capital account openness itself has a significant positive impact on financial development the results are robust to alternative measures of financial development and volatility and to the removal of outliers

financial globalisation and crisis institutional transformation and equity this paper comprises the long introduction to the symposium of five papers on financial globalisation published in the cambridge journal of economics volume 34 no 2 the paper discusses the impact of financial globalisation in a variety of spheres and shows how the five papers link together to provide a coherent view of the current economic and financial crisis in this paper we also examine the globalisation of finance more broadly both in historical terms as well as in relation to the current widespread failure in the financial markets we take up the policy question of how the interests of the poor in particular and developing countries in general could be safeguarded from the vagaries of financial globalisation questioning how much choice communities and countries have and what can the international community do to extend these choices

external debt capital flight and political risk abstract this paper explains the simultaneous occurence of large external debts private capital outflows and low domestic capital formation we consider a general equilibrium model in which two government types with conflicting distributional goals randomly alternate in office uncertainty over the fiscal policies of future governments generates capital flight and small domestic investment and induces the government to overaccumulate external debt the model also predicts that left wing governments are more inclined to restrict capital outflows than right wing governments finally we examine how political uncertainty affects the risk premium and how debt repudiation may occur after a regime change

the federal reserve the emerging markets and capital controls a high frequency empirical investigation in this paper i use weekly data from seven emerging nations four in latin america and three in asia to investigate the extent to which changes in fed policy interest rates have been transmitted into domestic short term interest rates during the 2000s the results suggest that there is indeed an interest rates pass through from the fed to emerging markets however the extent of transmission of interest rate shocks is different in terms of impact steady state effect and dynamics in latin america and asia the results also indicate that capital controls are not an effective tool for isolating emerging countries from global interest rate disturbances changes in the slope of the u s yield curve including changes generated by a twist policy affect domestic interest rates in emerging countries i also provide a detailed case study for chile

the politics of speculative attacks in industrial democracies recent models of speculative currency crises contend that market expectations of policy behavior can trigger a speculative attack we argue that political processes and partisan objectives inform expectations about the government s commitment to the exchange rate first market actors anticipate periods when the partisan identity of a government may change through an election or a cabinet collapse second party labels provide information to currency traders about the policy objectives of a potential government consequently we contend that the probability of a speculative attack will be higher when markets expect the cabinet to end and when the cabinet dissolution is likely to produce a leftward shift in policy a discrete timesurvival model is used to estimate the probability that a cabinet will dissolve in any given month for sixteen parliamentary democracies from 1970 to 1995 the predicted values are then used as a proxy for market expectations in a model of speculative currency crises

the economics of terrorism this paper treats terrorism as an economic phenomenon as a way to understand it and to control it it uses the tools of substitution innovation and cycles and concludes by noting the importance of intelligence and that the most valuable approach to defeating terrorism is that of denying resources to the terrorists rather than attempting to protect assets at risk it notes that we are probably not any safer than before the implementation of the post 9 11 strategies and emphasizes that new initiatives must be undertaken to prevent terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction

how effective are capital controls a number of authors have recently argued that in order to avoid financial instability emerging countries should rely on capital controls two type of controls have been considered controls on capital outflows and controls on capital inflows in this paper i review the historical evidence on the effectiveness of these two type of controls i argue that controls on outflows have been ineffective they are circumvented and breed corruption i also analyze chile s recent experience with controls on inflows and i argue that their effectiveness has been exaggerated

mobilidade de capitais e crescimento economico uma analise empirica dinâmica com dados em painel this paper aims at analyzing empirically the relationship between economic growth and openness of the financial account of the balance of payments it takes into consideration the balance of payments constrained growth as well as the difficulties in the empirical literature in measuring capital mobility departing from capital mobility index we estimate a panel across 80 countries both developed and developing ones between 1997 2003 results suggest that more capital mobility in developing countries affects negatively growth whereas it possibly stimulates growth in developed countries

risk sharing market imperfections asset prices evidence from china s stock market liberalization abstract we examine the roles of risk sharing and other factors in stock price revaluation during a recent liberalization episode in china consistent with the theoretical prediction that liberalizations reduce systematic risk we find that risk sharing explains approximately one fourth of the price revaluation of investible stocks during the eight month window between reform announcement and implementation the firm specific information generated by the reform is more efficiently priced into stocks that have a higher degree of market liquidity information transparency and informed trading

is financial globalization beneficial this lecture examines whether financial globalization is beneficial to developing countries by first examining the evidence on financial development and economic growth and concludes that financial development is indeed a key element in promoting economic growth it then asks why if financial development is so beneficial it often does not occur it then goes on to examine whether globalization particularly of the financial kind can help encourage financial and economic development and argues that it can however financial globalization does not always work to encourage economic development because it often leads to devastating financial crises the issue is thus not whether financial globalization is inherently good or bad but whether it can be done right

democratic institutions and exchange rate commitments since the collapse of the bretton woods system countries have been able to choose from a variety of exchange rate arrangements we argue that politicians incentives condition the choice of an exchange rate arrangement these incentives reflect the configuration of domestic political institutions particularly electoral and legislative institutions in systems where the cost of electoral defeat is high and electoral timing is exogenous politicians will be less willing to forgo their discretion over monetary policy with a fixed exchange rate in systems where the costs of electoral defeat are low and electoral timing is endogenous politicians are more likely to adopt a fixed exchange rate regime consequently differences in domestic political systems can help account for variations in the choice of exchange rate arrangements we test this argument using constrained multinomial logit and binomial logit on a sample of twenty democracies over the period 1974 95 domestic political institutions have a significant effect on exchange rate regime choice even after controlling for systemic macroeconomic and other political variables

political vs currency premia in international real interest differentials a study of forward rates for 24 countries abstract different approaches to quantifying the degree of capital mobility for a cross section of currencies particularly saving investment correlations and tests of real interest parity have appeared to show a surprisingly low degree of financial integration we use a new data set forward rate data for 24 countries including many small industrialized countries and seven ldcs to decompose the real interest differential into two parts the covered interest differential or political premium and the real forward discount or currency premium the latter in turn can be decomposed into the exchange risk premium and expected real depreciation we find a high degree of capital mobility across political boundaries for most of the g 11 countries plus hong kong and singapore for our sample period of 1982 to 1987 even for most of the other ldcs and smaller industrialized countries for which covered interest parity clearly fails the political premium is not as big a component of the real interest differential as the currency premium france would appear to have higher capital mobility than most by the criterion of real interest differentials but is seen in fact to have low capital mobility by the criterion of covered interest differentials a clear example of the superiority of the latter criterion

exploring different views of exchange rate regime choice the empirical distinction between de facto and de jure exchange rate regimes raises a number of interesting questions which factors may induce a de facto peg why do countries enforce a peg but do not announce it why do countries break their promises we show that a stable socio political environment and an efficient political decision making process are a necessary prerequisite for choosing a peg and sticking to it challenging the view that sees the exchange rate as a commitment device policymakers seem rather concerned with regime sustainability in the face of adverse economic and socio political fundamentals

did the euro common currency increase or decrease business cycle synchronization for its member countries we use two variants of markov switching models to assess changes in output synchronization since the creation of the euro out of eight eurozone countries investigated only one the netherlands has synchronization increased since euro adoption supporting the endogenous optimal currency area argument of frankel and rose however in three other cases business cycle synchronization actually fell since the euro s creation thus the endogeneity of the optimal currency area criteria can go both ways adopting a common currency may increase synchronization for nations ready for a common currency but it can lower synchronization for nations that are far from synchronized before monetary unification

dynamic bargaining with transaction costs a buyer and seller alternate making offers until an offer is accepted or someone terminates negotiations the seller s valuation is common knowledge but the buyer s valuation is known only by the buyer impatience to reach an agreement comes from two sources the traders discount future payoffs and there are transaction costs of bargaining equilibrium behavior involves either immediate trade delayed trade or immediate termination depending on the size of the gains from trade and the relative bargaining costs this contrasts with the pure discounting model where termination never occurs and the pure transaction cost model where delayed trade never occurs

coalitional bargaining with competition to make offers abstract the paper analyzes a simple discrete time noncooperative coalitional bargaining game in which at each stage there is a contest for the right to make a proposal the pure stationary subgame perfect equilibrium payoff set is equal to the core journal of economic literature classification numbers 026

compositional effects of capital controls theory and evidence this paper examines the effects of capital controls on the composition of inter national capital flows paying particular attention to debt inflows versus equity inflows a two period small open economy model with stochastic second period output and asymmetric information between domestic agents and international financiers is utilised to generate predictions regarding the effects of capital controls on the relative use of debt versus equity for financing first period investment these capital control implications are then investigated with quarterly frequency panel data for latin america capital controls are found to significantly affect the composition of the capital account

capital account liberalization what do cross country studies tell us capital account liberalization it is fair to say remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day one reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very different implications for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows another is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive results the answer another influential strand of thought contends is that this efficient markets paradigm is fundamentally misleading when applied to capital flows limits on capital movements are a distortion it is an implication of the theory of the second best that removing one distortion need not be welfare enhancing when other distortions are present

capital liberalization and the us external imbalance abstract differences in financial systems are often named as a prime candidate for the current state of global imbalances this paper focuses on cross country heterogeneity in access to international financial markets that derives from the presence of capital controls and argues that the process of capital liberalization over the past decades can explain a substantial fraction of us net external liabilities we present a simple two country model with an internationally traded bond in which capital controls are reflected in the presence of borrowing and lending constraints on that bond in a us versus the rest of the world row scenario we perform experiments that are largely consistent with countries liberalization experiences a reduction in the row s controls on capital outflows and or a tightening in the row s borrowing constraint enable the us economy to better insure against consumption risk relative to the rest of the world and therefore decrease its motives for precautionary asset holdings relative to the rest of the world as a result of these asymmetric shifts in countries barriers to capital mobility the us runs a long run external deficit

capital controls and international interest rate differentials since the asian crises it is often taken as granted that capital markets have significant functional deficits often these deficits are believed to be so very strong that the ability of free capital markets to guarantee a more or less correct international allocation of capital is denied it is argued that speculation dominates capital markets so much that capital allocation is purely random this is one of the major arguments backing the present trend to re establish capital controls which emerged after the capital market distortions observed during the asian flu in the present article it is shown that capital markets while certainly prone to many distortions are well capable of roughly guiding capital to the proper place though allocation is not model like perfect this steals the thunder from the idea that closed or government guided capital markets were able to perform better

partisanship and the path to financial openness the effect of traditional left right economic preferences on countries international financial openness is more subtle than existing studies have recognized the authors investigate the role that partisan politics played in the liberalization of international financial markets within 12 western european democracies from 1960 to 1986 the authors find that right governments tended to be active liberalizers of the capital account they were more likely than left governments to enact liberalizations and liberalizations were especially likely when new right governments entered office left governments typically acquiesced to these changes although less likely to enact liberalizations they were no more likely to impose new restrictions the authors findings are consistent with studies that show how financial integration does not undermine welfare states but is still subject to partisan contention

financial liberalization bureaucratic corruption and economic development abstract we study the effect of international financial integration on economic development when the quality of governance may be compromised by corruption our analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small economy in which growth is driven by capital accumulation and public policy is administered by government appointed bureaucrats corruption may arise due to the opportunity for bureaucrats to embezzle public funds an opportunity that is made more attractive by financial liberalization which at the same time raises efficiency in capital production our main results may be summarized as follows 1 corruption is always bad for economic development but its effect is worse if the economy is open than if it is closed 2 the incidence of corruption may itself be affected by both the development and openness of the economy 3 financial liberalization is good for development when governance is good but may be bad for development when governance is bad and 4 corruption and poverty may coexist as permanent rather than just transitory fixtures of an economy

ideology and voter preferences as determinants of financial globalization we propose that the global spread of ideas affects international economic openness policies and that to omit ideology as an explanatory variable for economic globalization is to risk omitted variable bias using voting data we create measures of global ideology regarding economic openness and propose that changes in both global and domestic ideology influence how open or closed to international finance an economy is we also test other influences on liberalization including proposed state centered diffusion mechanisms using pcsts and system gmm models we estimate the determinants of change in international capital account regulation for 82 countries 1955 to 1999 we thereby examine diffusion of both liberalizations 1950s and 1990s and closures 1960s and 1970s changes in both global and domestic ideology robustly influence liberalization and closure the capital account policies of neighboring countries positively and of the leading economies negatively also influenced a country s capital account liberalization

private monitoring in auctions abstract we study infinitely repeated first price auctions in which a bidder only learns whether or not he won the object while repetition of the stage game equilibrium is the unique nash equilibrium in public strategies with patient bidders there are simple nash equilibria in private strategies that improve on bid rotation sequential rationality is appropriately captured by essentially perfect bayesian equilibrium epbe which ignores behavior after irrelevant histories our main result is the construction of epbea that improve upon bid rotation assuming symmetry the exclusionary schemes of skrzypacz and hopenhayn tacit collusion in repeated auctions j econ theory 114 2004 153 169 including asymptotically efficient ones are supported as epbea

second best policy for international trade and investment abstract this paper investigates second best commercial policy for an open economy within the two commodity two factor model of a two country world where the first best strategy is known to require taxes subsidies on both international trade in commodities and foreign investment via capital movements as the analysis shows when either of these policy instruments is prohibited the other instrument generally must be complemented by a tax subsidy in consumption or production if a second best rather than third best equilibrium is desired the paper derives moreover precise conditions for determining the second best package of policies

comparing bargaining solutions in the shadow of conflict how norms against threats can have real effects abstract in many economic environments agents make costly and irreversible investments in guns that may enhance their respective threat payoffs but also shrink the utility possibilities set in such settings with variable threats and a variable utility possibilities set it becomes possible to rank different bargaining solutions in terms of efficiency we compare bargaining solutions within a class in which the influence of the threat point on the bargaining outcome varies across solutions under symmetry we find that the solution in which the threat point is least influential the equal sacrifice solution pareto dominates the other solutions since the equal sacrifice solution puts the least weight on the threat point norms against threats that can be seen in many seemingly rhetorical pronouncements in adversarial relations can mitigate some of the costs of conflict and therefore have efficiency enhancing effects journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c78 d30 d70 d72 k42

financial integration and growth in a risky world abstract we revisit the debate on the benefits of financial integration in a two country neoclassical growth model with aggregate uncertainty the framework accounts simultaneously for gains from a more efficient capital allocation and gains from risk sharing together with their interaction global numerical methods allow for meaningful welfare comparisons gains from integration are quantitatively small even for riskier and capital scarce emerging economies these countries import capital for efficiency reasons before exporting it for self insurance leading to capital flows and growth reversals along the transition this opens the door to richer empirical implications than previously considered in the literature

growth volatility and financial liberalization we examine the effects of both equity market liberalization and capital account openness on real consumption growth variability we show that financial liberalization is mostly associated with lower consumption growth volatility our results are robust surviving controls for business cycle effects economic and financial development the quality of institutions and other variables countries that have more open capital accounts experience a greater reduction in consumption growth volatility after equity market openings we also find that financial liberalizations are associated with declines in the ratio of consumption growth volatility to gdp growth volatility suggesting improved risk sharing our results are weaker for liberalizing emerging markets but we never observe a significant increase in real volatility moreover we demonstrate significant differences in the volatility response depending on the size of the banking and government sectors and certain institutional factors

capital controls and foreign direct investment abstract this paper examines the effect of three types of capital control policies on fdi a the existence of multiple exchange rates b restrictions on capital account and c restrictions on the repatriation of export proceeds we find that the impact of capital controls on fdi varies by region and has changed over time in the 1970s and 1980s none of the policies had a significant impact on fdi in the 1990s all three were significant furthermore capital controls have no effect on fdi to sub saharan africa and the middle east but affects fdi to east asia and latin america adversely

thresholds in the process of international financial integration abstract the financial crisis has re ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth especially for developing countries the empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration indeed a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses a major complication however is that there seem to be certain threshold levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness in this paper we develop a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions we find that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality the cost benefit trade off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied we also find that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared to those for debt liabilities

costly bargaining and renegotiation we identify the inefficiencies that arise when negotiation between two parties takes place in the presence of transaction costs first for some values of these costs it is efficient to reach an agreement but the unique equilibrium outcome is one in which agreement is never reached secondly even when there are equilibria in which an agreement is reached we find that the model always has an equilibrium in which agreement is never reached as well as equilibria in which agreement is delayed for an arbitrary length of time finally the only way in which the parties can reach an agreement in equilibrium is by using inefficient punishments for some of the opponent s deviations we argue that this implies that when the parties are given the opportunity to renegotiate out of these inefficiencies the only equilibrium outcome which survives is the one in which agreement is never reached regardless of the value of the transaction costs

are countries with official international restrictions liquidity constrained abstract in this paper i empirically examine consumption smoothing behavior across a broad group of countries using a unique data set that indicates whether residents in a country face an official government restriction i then ask whether the ex ante consumption movements among restricted countries differ from those of unrestricted countries to gauge the departure from standard consumption smoothing i use the campbell and mankiw consumption income and interest rates reinterpreting the time series evidence in o j blanchard and s fischer eds nber macroeconomics annual 1989 mit press cambridge ma 1989 and the response of consumption to income a cross country investigation european economic review 35 723 756 1991 approach of regressing consumption growth on income growth and instrumenting with lagged variables interestingly i find that consumption growth for residents in countries that impose international restrictions have a significantly higher coefficient on income growth than do residents in countries without those restrictions thus a greater proportion of consumers facing international restrictions appear to act as though they are liquidity constrained according to the campbell and mankiw approach i also discuss alternative interpretations that do not depend upon liquidity constraints

capital market liberalization economic growth and instability summary this paper reviews briefly the arguments for capital market liberalization and identifies their theoretical and empirical weaknesses this provides the foundations for the argument for intervention in short term capital flows the paper concludes with a brief discussion of the various ways in which such interventions may be implemented 2000 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

evaluation of currency regimes the unique role of sudden stops this paper tackles two established puzzles in international macroeconomics literature the first is the lack of systematic differences in the macroeconomic performance across exchange rate regimes the second is the absence of a clear empirical relationship between macroeconomic performance and capital account liberalization we suggest that these negative findings may be due to empirical methods that fail to account for a latent economic crisis state influenced by exchange rate and capital account regimes and to allow that latent variable to influence the growth effects of policy regimes in practice we model and estimate the latent state of the economy as a crisis probability our proposed framework of analysis allows exchange rate and capital market liberalization regimes to have both a direct effect on short term growth and an indirect effect on growth that is channelled through their effects on the crisis probability the empirical decomposition of the total effect into two conflicting effects helps resolve the puzzles assaf razin and yona rubinstein

the aggregate and distributional effects of financial globalization evidence from macro and sectoral data we take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows financial globalization both country and industry level results suggest that such policies have led on average to limited output gains while contributing to significant increases in inequality that is they pose an equity efficiency trade off behind this average lies considerable heterogeneity in effects depending on country characteristics liberalization increases output in countries with high financial depth and those that avoid financial crises while distributional effects are more pronounced in countries with low financial depth and inclusion and where liberalization is followed by a crisis difference indifference estimates using sectoral data suggest that liberalization episodes reduce the share of labor income particularly for industries with higher external financial dependence those with a higher natural propensity to use layoffs to adjust to idiosyncratic shocks and those with a higher elasticity of substitution between capital and labor the sectoral results underpin a causal interpretation of the findings using macro data

capital account liberalization and inflation abstract evidence from over 100 countries suggests a strong link between capital account openness and lower inflation in particular widespread capital account liberalization during the early 1990s appears to have contributed to the world wide disinflation observed during that decade alternative indices of capital account openness including those of quinn and toyoda measuring international financial openness and closure department of political science georgetown university washington dc 1996 mimeo yield similar results

proposal power and majority rule in multilateral bargaining with costly recognition this paper studies a sequential bargaining model in which agents expend efforts to be the proposer in equilibrium agents effort choices are influenced by the prize and cost effects the endogenous prize is 9

the effects of capital controls on international capital flows in the presence of asymmetric information abstract this paper examines the effects of capital controls on the volume and composition of international capital flows in the presence of asymmetric information in the two period small open economy model stochastic second period output depends on the level of first period investment which cannot be verified by international investors domestic agents obtain external funding by borrowing on international capital markets and by selling equity to international investors the paper investigates the effects of various capital controls on the debt equity choice domestic investment and welfare controls on capital inflows are shown to shift the composition of flows from fixed income instruments towards equity and to reduce the overall volume of inflows

financial liberalization and economic growth a meta analysis this study provides a systematic analysis of the empirical literature on the relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth by conducting a meta analysis based on 441 t statistics reported in 60 empirical studies we focus on explaining the heterogeneity of results in our sample in terms of study data and method specific characteristics although our findings indicate that on average there is a positive effect of financial liberalization on growth the significance of this effect is only weak moreover we find that most of the variables that may help explain the heterogeneity of results are insignificant there are two exceptions first studies carried out based on data from the 1970s on average find a statistically less significant relationship between financial liberalization policies and growth i e they report lower t statistics as compared to studies using data from the 1980s second studies controlling for the level of development of the financial system report lower t statistics for the relationship between liberalization and growth

distribution of surplus in sequential bargaining with endogenous recognition i examine a sequential bargaining situation in which agents contest the right to propose an allocation the contest can either take place at a pre bargaining stage yielding persistent recognition to propose or recur throughout the bargaining yielding transitory recognition equilibrium analysis reveals that surplus is distributed more unequally under persistent recognition social cost is higher under persistent recognition if and only if it attracts a sufficient number of active bargainers and individual s incentive to propose under transitory recognition may actually increase in the number of agents while this incentive always diminishes under persistent recognition

international financial integration and economic growth abstract this paper uses new data and new econometric techniques to investigate the impact of international financial integration on economic growth and also to assess whether this relationship depends on the level of economic development financial development legal system development government corruption and macroeconomic policies using a wide array of measures of international financial integration for 57 countries and an assortment of statistical methodologies we are unable to reject the null hypothesis that international financial integration does not accelerate economic growth even when controlling for particular economic financial institutional and policy characteristics

financial integration investment and economic growth evidence from two eras of financial globalization abstract does international financial integration boost economic growth the empirical literature has not yet established a robust link between openness to the international capital market and economic growth in this paper we turn to the economic history of the first era of financial globalization 1880 1914 for new insights using identical empirical models and techniques as contemporary studies we find a significant growth effect in the historical period a key difference between now and then is that opening up to the international market led to net capital movements and higher investment in the historical period but it no longer does so today

how do foreign investors impact domestic economic activity evidence from india and china there has been renewed advocacy for restrictions on international financial flows in the wake of the recent financial crisis motivated by this trend we explore the extent to which cross border flows affect real economic activity unlike previous research efforts that focus on aggregated capital flows we exploit novel data on forced trading by global mutual funds as a plausible source of exogenous flow shocks such forced trading is known to generate large liquidity and price effects but its real impacts have not been studied extensively we find that both country and firm level investment growth rates are significantly affected by these exogenous capital shocks and that their effect is more pronounced for firms whose marginal investment decisions are more equity reliant

the effects of capital mobility trade openness and democracy on social spending in latin america 1980 1999 empirical studies measuring the impact of globalization on social spending have appeared recently in leading journals this study seeks to improve upon previous work by 1 employing a more sophisticated and comprehensive measure of financial openness 2 using a more accurate measure of trade openness based on purchasing power parities and 3 relying on social spending data that are more complete than those used by previous studies on latin america our estimates suggest that several empirical patterns reported in previous work deserve a second look we find that trade openness has a positive association with education and social security expenditures that financial openness does not constrain government outlays for social programs and that democracy has a strong positive association with social spending particularly on items that bolster human capital formation t he international integration of markets for goods and services over the past two decades is unprecedented amidst a broader context of international integration latin america has experienced the most dramatic change in its economic policy orientation since world war ii few regions have undergone as rapid and thorough an economic transformation how has economic integration affected the social welfare policies of latin american governments has it forced them to reduce spending on social programs in order to compete in the world economy or has it induced them to provide social safety nets for those hurt by economic competition has democratization in latin america compelled governments to spend more on social programs in relatively open economies

capital control liberalization and stock market development the authors address two questions what happens to stock market size liquidity volatility and integration with world capital markets after capital controls are liberalized and what is the relationship between those indicators of stock market development and regulations about information disclosure accounting standards and investor protection an analysis of data on stock markets in 16 developing countries suggests the following a stock markets become larger more liquid more integrated internationally and more volatile after controls on capital and dividend flows are liberalized b easy access to information about firms is positively associated with the size and liquidity of stock markets and c countries that officially establish internationally accepted accounting standards and laws to protect investors do not have substantially better functioning stock markets than countries that do not adopt those official standards

benefits and costs of international financial integration theory and facts the author provides a selective review of the recent analytical and empirical literature on the benefits and costs of international financial integration he discusses the impact of financial openness on consumption investment and growth and the impact of foreign bank entry on the domestic financial system consistent with some recent studies the author argues that financial integration must be carefully prepared and managed to ensure that the benefits outweigh the short run risks prudent macroeconomic management adequate supervision and prudential regulation of the financial system greater transparency and improved capacity to manage risk in the private sector are important requirements for coping with potentially abrupt reversals in pro cyclical short term capital flows the author adopts a more skeptical view than some assessments in two areas however first only foreign direct investment appears to provide dynamic gains and improved prospects for growth the evidence on the benefits of other types of capital flows remains weak second empirical research on the net benefits associated with foreign bank penetration is far from conclusive in particular the possibility that such penetration may lead to adverse changes in the allocation of credit among domestic firms cannot be dismissed on the basis of the existing evidence

the origins of financial openness a study of current and capital account liberalization theory we assess the determinants of the national regulation of international finance or the comparative degree of national financial openness or closure hypotheses partisanship interacts with a nation s factor endowments to account in part for different international financial policies by governments of the same partisan hue methods we offer a quantitative measure of international financial openness or current and capital account regulation for 21 member countries of the organization for economic cooperation and development for 1950 88 we use regression analysis employing panel corrected standard errors to discover the determinants of financial openness results our main finding is that political partisanship substantially explains openness but does so in complex ways differences in both political institutional arrangements and types of political economy also account for part of the differences in international financial regulation

how national and international financial development affect industrial r d abstract we examine the impacts of both domestic and international financial market development on r d intensities in 22 manufacturing industries in 18 oecd countries for the period 1990 2003 we take account of such industry characteristics as the need for external financing and the amount of tangible assets multiple forms of domestic financial development are important determinants of r d intensity but only foreign direct investment is significant among alternative measures of international financial development we find the strongest effects for private bond market capitalization while fdi private credit by banks and stock market capitalization have similar effects in terms of magnitude

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

financial liberalisation in emerging markets how does bank lending change financial liberalisation has often failed in the past due to underestimated problems of structural change we analyse such changes in lending behaviour of thai commercial banks during a liberalisation phase by way of unique micro data liberalisation has expected positive effects such as lowering the interest rate spread and collateral requirements liberalisation causes structural change such as a decline in collateral based and relationship banking however the liberal isation evidence is consistent with more risk taking such as lending to more risky projects and less protection against default the thai experience suggests obvious policy lessons

recognition for sale abstract i examine the consequences of letting players compete for bargaining power in a multilateral bargaining game in each period the right to propose an offer is sold to the highest bidder and all players pay their bids if players vote according to any rule in which no player has veto power then the first proposer captures the entire surplus if a full consensus is needed for an offer to be accepted then the first proposer shares the surplus with at most one other player and as the period length between offers vanishes one player may capture virtually the entire surplus in settings with a stochastic or an endogenous surplus players are unwilling to efficiently delay agreement or invest in the surplus

comparative advantage and the gains from financial trade a reappraisal emerging market crises have suggested that a national benefit cost assessment of external financial liberalisation could well pro ve unfavourable this paper re examines the principle of comparative advantage in its application and international migration we distinguish between those arising in f inancial trade from the net transfer of capital and those deri ving from the contemporaneous exchange of f inancial claims or services of equivalent is on the contractual risk return characteristics of the financial claims exchanged this perspective is applied firstly to portfolio diversification gains arising from further international stock market integration secondly price risk management for developing countries in international primary commodity trade is discussed both applications imply the need for significant institutional development but could reali se approximately contemporaneous gains reminiscent both of those involved in merchandise trade and in the skills and product or service flows that baloo has emphasis ed in relation to fdi and international migration

capital account liberalization as a signal the authors present a model in which a government s current capital control policy signals future policies controls on capital outflows evolve in response to news on technology conditional on government attitudes toward taxation of capital when there is uncertainty over governmental types a policy of liberal capital outflows sends a favorable signal that may trigger a capital inflow this prediction is consistent with the experience of several countries that have liberalized their capital accounts copyright 1997 by american economic association

capital account liberalization financial development and industry growth a synthetic view this paper synthesizes studies analyzing the effects of capital account liberalization on industry growth while controlling for financial crises domestic financial development and the strength of institutions we find evidence that financial openness has positive effects on the growth of financially dependent industries although these growth enhancing effects evaporate during financial crises further analysis indicates that the positive effects of capital account liberalization are limited to countries with relatively well developed financial systems good accounting standards strong creditor rights and rule of law it suggests that countries must reach a certain threshold in terms of institutional and economic development before they can expect to benefit from capital account liberalization