the impact of fat tails on equilibrium rates of return and term premia abstract we investigate the impact of ignoring fat tails observed in the empirical distributions of macroeconomic time series on the equilibrium implications of the consumption based asset pricing model with habit formation fat tails in the empirical distributions of consumption growth rates are modeled as a dampened power law process that nevertheless guarantees finiteness of moments of all orders this renders model implied mean equilibrium rates of return and equity and term premia finite comparison with a benchmark gaussian process reveals that accounting for fat tails lowers the model implied mean risk free rate by 20 percent raises the mean equity premium by 80 percent and the term premium by 20 percent bringing the model implications closer to their empirically observed counterparts fat tails also increase the model implied volatility of the risk free rate and the equity premium

sustainable de growth mapping the context criticisms and future prospects of an emergent paradigm article i nfo sustainable de growth is both a concept and a social grassroots northern movement with its origins in the fieldsofecologicaleconomics socialecology economicanthropologyand environmentalandsocialactivistgroups this paper introduces the concept of sustainable de growth by mapping some of the main intellectual influences fromthese fields with special focus on the francophone and anglophone thinking about this emergent notion we propose hypotheses pertaining to the appeal of sustainable de growth and compare it to the messages enclosed within the dominant sustainable development idea we scrutinize the theses contradictions and consequences of sustainable de growth thinking as it is currently being shaped by a heterogeneous body of literature and as it interacts with an ample and growing corpus of social movements we also discuss possible future paths for the de growth movement compared to the apparent weakening of the sustainable development paradigm

the proximity of nations to a socially sustainable steady state economy abstract there has been increasing interest in new economic models that aim to improve quality of life without increasing consumption this article provides the first empirical analysis of how close modern day economies are to the concept of a steady state economy and explores whether there is any relationship between a country s proximity to such an economy and its social performance the analysis is carried out using the degrowth accounts a set of 16 biophysical and social indicators that are derived from herman daly s definition of a steady state economy and the social goals of the degrowth movement these indicators are applied to 180 countries over a 10 year period the analysis reveals that the majority of countries in the world are biophysical growth economies there are only a small number of countries where resource use is relatively constant from year to year e g denmark france japan poland romania and the us and only four countries experiencing biophysical degrowth germany guyana moldova and zimbabwe there are no countries that achieve a true steady state economy defined as an economy with a stable level of resource use maintained within ecological limits however a few countries come relatively close including colombia cuba kyrgyzstan romania and south africa in general countries with stable resource use perform better on many social indicators than countries with either increasing or decreasing resource use this finding runs contrary to conventional economic thought however social performance is also higher in countries with greater per capita resource use overall these findings suggest that a steady state economy can be socially sustainable but countries need to become much more efficient at transforming natural resources into human well being if all seven billion people on earth are to lead a good life within ecological limits

piketty and the growth dilemma revisited in the context of ecological economics 2017 elsevier b v piketty s capital has provoked considerable debate regarding inequality the existence of increasing inequality creates a challenge for ecological economics in this paper we set out some of the problems inherent in piketty s approach and how they are addressed from the point of view of ecological economics we use jackson and victor s response as a point of departure to make several points piketty s work involves an unreconciled inconsistency between his laws and the institutional context which becomes problematic when one starts to think about inevitability he simply assumes away ecological problems to make future forecasts for inequality as such his forecasts are undermined since ecological issues are fundamental to any viable future economy furthermore piketty effectively reproduces rather than contests the mainstream practice of delegating ecological issues to a sub discipline jackson and victor meanwhile focus on the mainstream economic aspect of piketty s work and construct a model to contest a model in so doing they provide an ideational response to what is also a problem of ideological frameworks though it can be important to contest an idea they inadvertently through family resemblance contribute to the reproduction of the problematic position of ecological concerns within dominant ways of conceiving economics

sustainable consumption within a sustainable economy beyond green growth and green economies abstract in 1992 one unambiguous result of the unced conference was the need for changing consumption and production patterns with affluent countries taking the lead 20 years later at the 2012 uncsd little is left over and instead the green economy has been the theme pursued by the oecd the eu and other countries so the question needs to be answered if this is finally an attempt to put into practice what was promised 20 years ago or another diversion from what needs to be accomplished sustainable development is still a convincing concept if the original definition is taken avoiding the confusion caused by partisan interests reinterpreting the concept focussing on human needs fulfilment and respecting environmental limits it can still guide strong sustainable consumption green economy green growth on the other hand is a new terminology for what is known since 40 years as ecological modernisation it is indeed overdue but with its focus on efficiency and innovation it cannot guarantee to fulfil the brundtland sustainability criteria a factor analysis based on the i p a t formula demonstrates how optimistic the assumptions regarding future technologies must be to support the green growth concept consequently the authors pledge for a pragmatic risk avoiding approach by slimming the physical size of the economy this requires strong sustainable consumption including production as resource consumption which in turn requires a change of the societies institutional settings formal and informal mechanisms and orientations finally some elements of a strategy towards this end are pointed out with special emphasis on the role of non governmental organisations ngos through networking and advocacy they can both stimulate bottom up action and mobilise the pressure necessary for the institutional changes which are needed to mainstream strong sustainable consumption

measuring national economic performance without using prices abstract recent years have seen increasing awareness of the deficiencies of conventionally defined national income as a measure of a nation s overall economic performance alternative measures have been proposed involving either the modification of national income accounting conventions or the abandonment of national income itself in favour of something such as the genuine progress indicator gpi however such alternatives like national income itself all involve the use of monetary valuation for aggregation this paper proposes a new approach to the measurement of national economic performance which follows naturally from ecological economics as the study of economic activity rooted in a proper appreciation of its material circumstances and which does not involve using prices for aggregation the paper gives some results for three variants of the new approach and compares and discusses them while this new approach does not purport to provide a single definitive assessment of the sustainability of current economic activity which is an infeasible goal it could provide useful inputs to relevant research activity and to policy analysis and debate

the neoclassical trojan horse of steady state economics the vision of a steady state economy elaborated by herman daly describes an economy that uses materials and energy within the regenerative and assimilative limits of the planet s ecosystems sustainable scale just distribution and efficient allocation are its constitutive theoretical goals this paper is a critique of the theoretical foundations of steady state economics it argues that steady state economics consists in an attempt to squeeze neoclassical economics into a biophysical and ethical corset as a result many fundamental flaws and criticisms of neoclassical economics remain as a consequence steady state economics does not lead to a radical departure from or improvement upon neoclassical theory but rather to fundamental internal inconsistencies between the old economics paradigm and new progressive ecological economic thinking contradictions appear at various levels ranging from ontology and methodology to theory and values as daly has pioneered the foundations of ecological economics with his thinking these ambiguities are not only problematic for steady state economics but ecological economics as a field more generally the paper concludes that ecological economics has to let go of neoclassical foundations as they contradict its core values and ambitions a new and consistent theory of political economy of the environment along heterodox lines is needed

valuation of ecosystem goods and services part 1 an integrated dynamic approach abstract this is the first part of a two part paper which offers a new approach to the valuation of ecosystem goods and services the existing literature on environmental valuation is based on two distinct foundations the ecological valuation methods derive values by a cost of production approach their common characteristic is the neglect of consumer preferences the economic valuation methods focus on the exchange value of ecosystem services their common characteristic is that they are finally based on consumer preferences and do not adequately take account of the complex internal structure of ecosystems as the existing methods for the valuation of ecosystem services emphasize either the economic system or the ecosystem the main objective of part 1 is to provide the conceptual foundations for a new method of valuation of ecosystem services which deals simultaneously with the ecosystem the economic system and society in a balanced way within a simple pre industrial model it is shown how the interdependencies between the three subsystems influence values and how values change over time

valuation of commodity based swing options in the energy markets in particular the electricity and natural gas markets many contracts incorporate flexibility of delivery options known as swing or take or pay options subject to daily as well as periodic constraints these contracts permit the option holder to repeatedly exercise the right to receive greater or smaller amounts of energy we extract market information from forward prices and volatilities and build a pricing framework for swing options based on a one factor mean reverting stochastic process for energy prices that explicitly incorporates seasonal effects we present a numerical scheme for the valuation of swing options calibrated for the case of natural gas

ecological well being performance growth in china 1994 2014 from perspectives of industrial structure green adjustment and green total factor productivity abstract industrial structure green adjustment isga and green total factor productivity gtfp deriving from development processes for green goals recently attracted great attention as two ways to achieve ecological well being performance ewp growth which is one of the main green development goals that humanity should pursue and which affects the efficiency improvement of transforming ecological consumption into human well being in this paper the effects of isga and gtfp on ewp growth are empirically tested in a dynamic panel model of spatial econometrics using statistics from 30 provinces of china in the 1994 2014 period in particular the indicator system of isga is firstly constructed based on the theories of ewp and three dimensional industrial ecological footprint 3dief the results indicate that spatial spillovers are important factors in the effects the main driving force for ewp growth in provinces of china had gradually shifted from isga to gtfp and gtfp is essential for structural bonuses from isga to take effect in addition a provincial government needs to target reference objects from not only other provinces in the same economic zone s yardstick competition but also isga and gtfp situations in geographically close or economically similar provinces in addition the adverse ewp effects of isga can be mitigated by gtfp increase or a combination of gtfp and isga for provinces in all stages of isga in general improving gtfp will be the main driving force for china s provincial ewp growth and the main venue through which the adverse effects of improper isga can be mitigated the present study contributes to explore the ewp growth effect of isga and gtfp can at least provide a valuable guidance and in depth understanding to researchers operators and policy makers who wish to improve human well being in an ecologically efficient way as well as for the follow up studies

valuation of ecosystem goods and services part 2 implications of unpredictable novel change abstract this is the second part of a two part paper which offers a new approach to the valuation of ecosystem goods and services in the first part a simple pre industrial model was introduced to show how the interdependencies between the three subsystems society economy and nature influence values and how values change over time in this second part the assumption of perfect foresight is dropped i argue that due to novelty and complexity ex ante unpredictable change occurs within the three subsystems society economy and nature again the simple pre industrial model which was introduced in part 1 serves as a simple paradigm to show how unpredictable novel change limits the possibility to derive accurate estimates of values

forward curves scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets the role of inventory in explaining the shape of the forward curve and spot price volatility in commodity markets is central in the theory of storage developed by kaldor kaldor n 1939 speculation and economic stability the review of economic studies 7 1 27 and working working h 1949 the theory of the price of storage american economic review 39 1254 1262 and has since been documented in a vast body of financial literature including the reference paper by fama and french fama e f and k r french 1987 commodity futures prices some evidence on forecast power premiums and the theory of storage journal of business 60 55 73 on metals the goal of this paper is twofold i validate in the case of oil and natural gas the use of the slope of the forward curve as a proxy for inventory the slope being defined in a way that filters out seasonality ii analyze directly for these two major commodities the relationship between inventory and price volatility in agreement with the theory of storage we find that i the negative correlation between price volatility and inventory is globally significant for crude oil ii this negative correlation prevails only during those periods of scarcity when the inventory is below the historical average and increases importantly during the winter periods for natural gas our results are illustrated by the analysis of a 15 year database of us oil and natural gas prices and inventory

consumer scapegoatism and limits to green consumerism an axiom that has shaped policy approaches to sustainable consumption has been that if more consumers understand the environmental consequences of their consumption patterns through their market choices they would inevitably put pressure on retailers and manufacturers to move towards sustainable production the result is the proliferation of green consumerism and consumption of green products eco labels to assist consumers in making informed ecologically conscious choices consumer awareness campaigns etc however this paper argues that the dominant focus on green consumerism as against the need for structural changes towards a broader systemic shift is unrealistic furthermore promoting green consumerism at once lays responsibility on consumers to undertake the function of maintaining economic growth while simultaneously even if contradictorily bearing the burden to drive the system towards sustainability given the scope of the sustainability challenge and the urgency with which it must be addressed this paper argues that the consumer is not the most salient agent in the production consumption system and so expecting the consumer through green consumerism to shift society towards scp patterns is consumer scapegoatism this paper draws on the discursive confusion over discourse and practice of sustainable consumption in an attempt to clarify the differences between green consumerism and sustainable consumption and to provide a broadened framework for sustainable consumption policy design that enables wellbeing and ecological sustainability without propagating the economic growth dogma that has a stranglehold on contemporary policy making

optimal portfolio selection with transaction costs and finite horizons we examine the optimal trading strategy for a crra investor who maximizes the expected utility of wealth on a finite date and faces transaction costs closed form solutions are obtained when this date is uncertain we then show a sequence of analytical solutions converge to the solution to the problem with a deterministic finite horizon consistent with the common life cycle investment advice the optimal trading strategy is found to be horizon dependent and largely buy and hold moreover it might be optimal for the investor in our model not to buy any stock even when the risk premium is positive further analysis of the optimal policy is also provided financial advisers typically recommend that younger investors should allocate a greater share of wealth to stocks than older investors and all investors

measuring progress in the degrowth transition to a steady state economy article i nfo in order to determine whether degrowth is occurring or how close national economies are to the concept of a steady state economy clear indicators are required within this paper i analyse four indicator approaches that could be used 1 gross domestic product 2 the index of sustainable economic welfare 3 biophysical and social indicators and 4 a composite indicator i conclude that separate biophysical and social indicators represent the best approach but a unifying conceptual framework is required to choose appropriate indicators and interpret the relationships between them i propose a framework based on ends and means and a set of biophysical and social indicators within this framework the biophysical indicators are derived from herman daly s definition of a steady state economy and measure the major stocks and flows in the economy environment system the social indicators are based on the stated goals of the degrowth

steady state of energy feedbacks and leverages for promoting or preventing sustainable energy system development abstract while energy demand has been growing over the last few decades and is projected to keep expanding the current energy system is pushing biophysical source and sink limits at the same time growing demand for energy globally is associated with an expansion of welfare to avoid undesired environmental and social implications of energy developments in the long run a systemic understanding of the dynamics promoting or preventing sustainable energy development is needed departing from daly s steady state economics theory this study conceptualizes a sustainable energy system using a systems thinking approach efficiency increase the central element of daly s theory defined as the service throughput ratio is put in the center of a conceptual analysis of a sustainable energy system and is carefully scrutinized meadows leverage points concept is used to facilitate an analysis of different policies that aim at promoting sustainable energy system development this study concludes that energy policies always need to be explored as part of the broader causality structure into which they are embedded otherwise their impacts on other variables in the system may be overlooked such as in the case of efficiency increase which is shown to have undesired side effects for the development of a sustainable energy system

the dynamics of willingness to consume abstract it is increasingly acknowledged that the growing consumption in the north constitutes an important part of global environmental problems to improve the possibilities of dealing with this aspect of the problems this paper explores some of the driving forces behind the growth in consumption the first section introduces the environmental debate on consumption including the relationship between final consumption and the consumption of resources the recent political acceptance of dealing with consumption and the fundamental conditions for consumption growth in the north in the following sections a cross disciplinary approach is applied in a broad search for the driving forces behind the willingness to consume throughout the exposition two questions are explored 1 why are productivity increases largely transformed into income increases instead of more leisure 2 why is such a large part of these income increases used for the consumption of goods and services with a relatively high materials intensity instead of less material intensive alternatives the explanations are divided into three groups first the economic explanations including socio economic aspects related to the institutional set up of the economy second socio psychological explanations focusing on consumption from the perspective of the human being embedded in specific social relations third historical and socio technological explanations focusing on different aspects of everyday life the paper concludes with some reflections on the political implications of the analysis

the great recession the treadmill of production and ecological disorganization did the recession decrease toxic releases across us states 2005 2014 abstract the treadmill of production ecological marxist steady state economics and the natural science literatures suggest that economic growth and pollution are linked we use the economic downturn resulting from the great recession in 2008 2009 as a natural experiment to test this hypothesis specifically we examine the effect of the great recession on pollution measured by the environmental protection agency s toxics release inventory tri using maps and fixed effects regression models for us states for the period 2005 2014 multivariate time series analysis demonstrates that even when adjusting for controls there is a unique and negative effect of the recession on tri levels we situate our findings in the relevant literature suggest possibilities for what the recession effect may be capturing and discuss some implications of increased pollution levels

environmentally sensitive productivity growth a global analysis using malmquist luenberger index abstract we examine conventional and environmentally sensitive total factor productivity tfp in 41 developed and developing countries over the period of 1971 to 1992 due to the non availability of reliable input and co 2 emissions price data the study uses directional distance function to derive malmquist luenberger ml productivity index the index allows us to decompose the tfp into measures of technical and efficiency changes dea is used to compute the directional distance functions we find that tfp index value is not different when we account for the co 2 emissions relative to the situation when they are freely disposable but for the components of tfp change technical and efficiency changes the null hypothesis of whether the indexes are the same under two different scenarios cannot be accepted issues of catch up and convergence or in some cases possible divergence in productivity are examined within a global framework the paper also studies the impact of openness on conventional and environmentally sensitive measures of productivity

extreme value theory and value at risk application to oil market recent increases in energy prices especially oil prices have become a principal concern for consumers corporations and governments most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity oil markets have become relatively free resulting in a high degree of oil price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries as a result oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant negative volatility an example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973 in this newly created climate protection against market risk has become a necessity value at risk var measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management appealing aspects of extreme value theory evt have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks in this paper we apply both unconditional and conditional evt models to forecast value at risk these models are compared to the performances of other well known modelling techniques such as garch historical simulation and filtered historical simulation both conditional evt and filtered historical simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the parametric methods furthermore garch 1 1 t model may provide equally good results as well as the combining of the two procedures

economic growth and environmental degradation the environmental kuznets curve and sustainable development abstract in this paper we critically examine the concept of the environmental kuznets curve ekc it proposes that there is an inverted u shape relation between environmental degradation and income per capita so that eventually growth reduces the environmental impact of economic activity the concept is dependent on a model of the economy in which there is no feedback from the quality of the environment to production possibilities and in which trade has a neutral effect on environmental degradation the actual violation of these assumptions gives rise to fundamental problems in estimating the parameters of an ekc the paper identifies other econometric problems with estimates of the ekc and reviews a number of empirical studies the inference from some such ekc estimates that further development will reduce environmental degradation is dependent on the assumption that world per capita income is normally distributed when in fact median income is far below mean income we carry out simulations combining ekc estimates from the literature with world bank forecasts for economic growth for individual countries aggregating over countries to derive the global impact within the horizon of the bank s forecast 2025 global emissions of so 2 continue to increase forest loss stabilizes before the end of the period but tropical deforestation continues at a constant rate throughout the period

can measures of well being and progress help societies to achieve sustainable development the search for sustainability and the growing apprehension with environmental degradation are increasingly attracting researchers from around the world and bringing the need for developing indicators that include the economy society and environment this study compares the emergy indices with 10 known indicators taken from the literature gross domestic product gross domestic product per capita human development index happiness index life expectancy democracy index ecological footprint surplus biocapacity wellbeing index and environmental sustainability index 2002 correlations are made using the spearman coefficients to verify correlations between the fractions of renewable natural resources non renewable natural resources resources from the economy and the emergy indices with the known indicators and indexes emerged with the literature indicators the analysis of the results is made by illustrative matrices and graphs the results suggest that the combination of socio economic and biophysical indicators is essential to provide a better understanding of the limits of economic growth and while ensuring sustainable societal well being

why are we growth addicted the hard way towards degrowth in the involutionary western development path abstract by questioning the origins of the inertia facing the degrowth movement this contribution identifies property as the constitutive institution of capitalism and property expansion as the dominant socioeconomic process leading world societies to economic path dependence techno institutional lock in and eco social impasse demonstrating why and how property based economic rationality subordinates ecological and social considerations to capitalist requirements this paper stresses both the need for an inversion in the hierarchy of social norms and the systemic opposition to such an inversion which emanates from the capitalist industrial expansion the text also brings to light some disregarded processes underlying the current economic crisis by pointing out the institutional and technological locked in situation into which the western development path has led our societies

strong sustainable consumption governance precondition for a degrowth path this paper aims to link two debates and literatures at the cutting edge of sustainable development research and governance sustainable consumption and degrowth interestingly these literatures have only recently started to exchange and integrate insights despite their similar interest in the fundamental systemic challenges to sustainable development the paper argues that this lack of connection is due to a predominance of perspectives in sustainable consumption governance that focus almost exclusively on questions of efficiency gains this weak sustainable consumption governance however is not able to address the challenges to sustainable development arising from overconsumption in general or the rebound effect and distributive issues in particular in contrast a strong sustainable consumption perspective provides a basis for a promising inquiry into the linkages between consumption and sustainable development as well as a fruitful exchange with degrowth specifically it allows the delineation of relevant insights on the role of values in governance obstacles to political reform and promising political strategies for the degrowth debate and literature

technology ladders and r d in dynamic cournot markets abstract motivated by dramatic and unpredictable technological advances in energy production for instance drilling and extraction of shale oil we extend cournot models of competition to incorporate research and development rd for example the potential of future monopoly can spur r d investment now even if the firm is presently uncompetitive and not actively producing we also show that surprisingly random innovations have an ambiguous effect on r d this feature which is driven by the cournot framework contrasts with the common situation whereby uncertainty lowers innovation and delays r d investments finally we demonstrate that increased competition may actually increase efforts to innovate through higher desire to achieve dominance this would match the anecdotal evidence that the threat of market entrants forces incumbents to maintain high r d

the physical dimension of international trade part 2 indirect global resource flows between 1962 and 2005 global trade is increasingly being challenged by observations of growing burden shifting in particular of environmental problems this paper presents the first worldwide calculations of shifted burden based on material flow indicators in particular direct and indirect physical trade balances this study covers the period between 1962 and 2005 and includes between 82 and 173 countries per year the results show that indirect trade flow volumes have increased to around 41 billion tonnes in 2005 the traded resources with the highest share of associated indirect flows are iron hard coal copper tin and increasingly palm oil regarding the burden balance between regions europe is the biggest shifter whereas australia and latin america are the largest takers of environmental burden due to resource extraction to evaluate the findings from a global perspective the results are analysed in terms of resource flow induced environmental pressure related to a country s land area in terms of total and per capita area resource endowment and population density seem to be more relevant in determining the physical trade balance including indirect flows than income level

new foundations for ecological economics abstract ecological economics has been repeatedly described as transdiciplinary and open to including everything from positivism to relativism i argue for a revision and rejection of this position in favour of realism and reasoned critique looking into the ontological presuppositions and considering an epistemology appropriate for ecological economics to meaningfully exist requires rejecting the form of methodological pluralism which has been advocated since the start of this journal this means being clear about the differences in our worldview or paradigm from others and being aware of the substantive failures of orthodox economics in addressing reality this paper argues for a fundamental review of the basis upon which ecological economics has been founded and in so doing seeks improved clarity as to the competing and complementary epistemologies and methodologies in part this requires establishing serious interdisciplinary research to replace superficial transdisciplinary rhetoric the argument places the future of ecological economics firmly amongst heterodox economic schools of thought and in ideological opposition to those supporting the existing institutional structures perpetuating a false reality of the world s social environmental and economic systems and their operation

testing for multiple regimes in the tail behavior of emerging currency returns it is by now generally accepted that foreign exchange returns exhibit heavy tails as measured by the so called tail index however it is unclear whether the tail behavior remains stationary in the presence of recurrent switches in the exchange rate regime we therefore test the null hypothesis of tail index constancy by applying a single breaks test in rounds which enables the detection of multiple breakpoints we are able to identify multiple jumps in the tail index of currency returns moreover some breaks coincide with documented shifts in monetary and exchange rate policies

an empirical re examination of extreme tail behavior testing the assumptions of the power laws and the generalized pareto distribution on the financial series this study investigates whether the power laws and the associated generalized pareto distribution gpd exist in the extreme tail behavior of financial return series we include 10 series of five m

economics in the anthropocene species extinction or steady state economics abstract at the dawn of the anthropocene continued economic growth carries the risk of irreversibly damaging the global carrying capacity using data from the international union for the conservation of nature red list of threatened species 2016 i present estimates of the expected extinction rates during the coming century for 557 regions i illustrate that these rates exceed the planetary boundary formulated by rockstrom et al 2009 virtually everywhere and increase with population density and gdp per capita likewise the percentage of threatened species increases with anthropogenic pressure i find no evidence in support of an environmental kuznets curve by doing so this paper contributes to an ongoing debate on the relevance of absolute versus relative scarcity for economic thought my findings suggest that the conservation of nature would benefit from degrowth or the transition to a global steady state economy

impact caps why population affluence and technology strategies should be abandoned abstract this paper classifies strategies to reduce environmental impact according to the terms of the i pat formula policies limiting resource depletion and pollution impact by heavily taxing resources or rationing them on a country basis are thus called direct or left side strategies other policies to achieve the environmental goal of lowering impact strive to limit population and affluence or to use technology to lower the ratio of resource inputs to goods and services outputs next it is shown that lowering any of these right side factors causes or at least enables the other two to rise or rebound this has two consequences 1 since i pat does not express these interdependencies on the right side it is more accurately written i f p a t and 2 success in lowering any of the right side factors does not necessarily lower impact rationing or pigouvian taxation of resources or pollution on the other hand necessarily lower impact and are therefore preferable to population consumption and technological environmental strategies finally lifestyle and technology changes towards more sufficiency and efficiency would follow the caps as consumers and producers work to retain the greatest amount of welfare within the limits given

market and non market determinants of private consumption and their impacts on the environment abstract the view of consumption as an activity combining market and non market elements with the aim of attaining life enjoyment targets allows one to focus on the social and institutional determinants of the border between market and non market components of the consumption process and to consider the interrelations of market and non market domains of social life as a possible source of the environmental degradation which derives from consumption activities in this paper an analytical framework is proposed in which the view of consumption as a social process and the neo ricardian theory of prices and profits are combined to yield an evaluation of consumer efficiency and of its environmental effects the paper argues that the social and institutional framework in which consumption is embedded significantly determines the impact of human activities on the natural environment and that environmental degradation is intimately connected with a distortion in the consumption process towards a predominance of market relations and an excess of labour in industrial society two examples household energy conservation and private transportation illustrate the analytical framework and suggest the importance of redrawing the border between market and non market domains of social life in environmental policy

the sufficiency strategy would rich world frugality lower environmental impact abstract one alleged weapon against unsustainable environmental impact is for the wealthy to consume less this sufficiency strategy is to complement the efficiency strategy of lowering ratios of resource inputs to economic outputs the former would reduce the affluence factor in i pat the latter the technology factor that the latter strategy suffers from a consumption rebound is widely recognized this paper identifies a similar rebound when the affluence factor is autonomously lowered the lower initial demand lowers prices which in turn stimulates new demand by others the strategy moreover addresses only the rich raising questions of its theoretical maximum efficacy its proponents usually conflate frugality with the north south dichotomy and intra generational with inter generational equity moreover there are difficulties with the supporting arguments that frugality is good for one s own sake as well as for the environment and that the rich should lead the way to living more lightly personal behaviour change is furthermore not a substitute for international political efforts finally since all changes in right side factors of the i pat equation change other right side factors such indirect attacks on impact should be abandoned in favor of supply and emissions quotas

environmentally sustainable household consumption from aggregate environmental pressures to priority fields of action unsustainable consumption patterns of the north or rather of the global affluent consumers class have been identified by agenda 21 as one of the key driving forces behind the unsustainable development however neither accounting based on the system of national accounts sna nor household economics provide the proper instruments to assess the environmental impact of household decision making eco efficiency assessments as familiar in the business sector provide no appropriate tool for households as an alternative an environmental space based assessment scheme is suggested covering the major pressures on the environment caused by household decisions the methodology is used twice once to analyse the environmental relevance of the main activity clusters of household consumption and once to identify the dominant acts of consumption within each cluster the latter provide the basis for deriving environmental performance indicators a rough analysis of household influence potentials permits to identify housing eating and mobility as the three priority fields for action for minimising the environmental impact of households extending the influence analysis actor matrixes are derived allocating influence and thus responsibility for environmental pressures to different groups of economic agents

national natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept abstract there is a growing consensus among natural and social scientists that sustainability depends on maintaining natural capital however progress to put this ecological condition to practice has been slow not least because of the inability of making these objectives measurable therefore to overcome this obstacle assessment frameworks for natural capital are needed this study presents a simple framework for national and global natural capital accounting it demonstrates using the example of italy an accounting framework which tracks national economies energy and resource throughput and translates them into biologically productive areas necessary to produce these flows this calculation has been applied to over 52 countries with this framework based on the ecological footprint concept human consumption can be compared with natural capital production at the global and national level using existing data

have countries moved towards sustainable development or not definition criteria indicators and empirical analysis abstract have countries moved towards sustainable development sd or not to answer the question first a new sd definition i e achieving higher and more equally distributed well being levels within ecological limits is proposed second based on the definition and from a global perspective four criteria are established to judge whether countries have moved towards sd which are 1 well being levels have been higher and more equally distributed 2 levels of ecological consumption have been lower 3 ecological capacities have strengthened and 4 the ultimate efficiency which is the efficiency of transforming ecological consumption into human well being has improved developing countries with ecological consumption below global average do not have to meet the second criterion third the happy and equal human development index the ecological footprint and the biocapacity are selected to measure human well being ecological consumption and ecological capacities respectively and two consistent methods are used to measure the ultimate efficiency the empirical analysis of 102 countries during 2011 2016 demonstrates that 19 countries have met the required four or three criteria and moved towards sd and that 12 countries have met none of the required criteria and moved against sd the main contribution is to provide a clear sd definition specific criteria and reliable indicators for measuring national performance and informing decision making on moving towards sd therefore whether countries have moved towards sd or not can be judged and measured continuously and regularly future research needs to detailedly explore why countries have met or not met one certain criterion

a characterization of sustainability with indicators abstract economists favor the use of criteria to characterize sustainability in practice policy makers use indicators i e measurements based on the current economic state and decisions representing given sustainability issues in this paper i introduce a criterion characterizing sustainability with indicators and thresholds acting as constraints i interpret the thresholds as minimal rights to be guaranteed to all generations and define sustainable trajectories as those satisfying all the constraints at all times the new criterion is a generalized maximin criterion the approach is applied to a simple production consumption economy with non renewable resources to derive some policy recommendations on the use of indicators to deal with sustainability i discuss the implications of such a criterion in terms of trade off between sustainability thresholds efficiency and time consistency in particular the resulting problem is time inconsistent and sustainability thresholds may be revised over time following the time inconsistent policy based on indicators with dynamic revision of the thresholds may however result in a sustained utility path and even in utility growth

evaluation of urban green development transformation process for chinese cities during 2005 2016 abstract urban green development transformation ugdt has become a new direction for chinese urban development in the 21st century in this paper firstly constructs an index system for dynamic assessment of ugdt based on resource consumption economic development and social welfare secondly propose a two stage decomposition to further open the black box of ugdt process from the perspective of ecological welfare performance this paper empirically investigates the evaluation and staged decomposition of the ugdt process in 286 cities of china over the period 2005 2016 and propose improvement paths based on this our results show that the ugdt of chinese cities will gradually begin and be in a benign state of time after 2014 moreover find that low eco economic efficiency ee is the main reason for the low level of overall cgdt in cities and that the cgdt in regions has shown a trend of the highest in the central the second in the east and the lowest in the west correspondingly based on the principles of obvious short board priority improvement between green development and urban social welfare this paper can explore the different improvement paths of cgdt in different cities

a generalized production frontier approach for estimating determinants of inefficiency in u s dairy farms this article investigates farm level efficiency of u s dairy farmers by estimating their technical and allocative efficiency technical inefficiency is assumed to be composed of a deterministic component that is a function of some farm specific characteristics and a random component by doing this we extend the stochastic frontier methodology in which determinants of technicial inefficiency are explicitly introduced in the model given the inputs variations in efficiency of farms are then explained by both deterministic and random components of technical inefficiency the empirical results indicate that a levels of education of the farmer are important factors determining technical inefficiency and b large farms are more efficient technically than small and medium sized farms both technical and allocative inefficiency are found to decrease with increase in the level of education of the farmer

investment in new power generation under uncertainty benefits of chp vs condensing plants in a copula based analysis abstract in this paper we apply a spread based real options approach to analyze the decision making problem of an investor who has the choice between an irreversible investment in a condensing power plant without heat utilization and a plant with combined heat and power chp generation our investigation focuses on large scale fossil fueled generation technologies and is based on a stochastic model that uses copula functions to provide the input parameters of the real options model we define the aggregated annual spread as assessment criteria for our investigation since it contains all relevant volatile input parameters that have an impact on the evaluation of investment decisions we show that the specific characteristics of chp plants such as additional revenues from heat sales promotion schemes specific operational features and a beneficial allocation of co 2 allowances have a significant impact on the option value and therefore on the optimal timing for investment for the two fossil fueled chp technologies investigated combined cycle gas turbine and steam turbine we conclude from our analysis that a high share of chp generation reduces the risk exposure for the investor the maximal possible chp generation depends significantly on the local heat demand in the surroundings of the power plant considering this the size of the heat sink available could gain more relevance in the future selection process of sites for new large scale fossil power plants

where do the poor live this paper argues that the distribution of global poverty has changed and that most of the world s poor no longer live in countries officially classified as low income countries lics it is estimated that the majority of the world s poor or up to a billion people live in middle income countries mics this pattern is largely as a result of the recent graduation into the mic category of a number of populous countries the paper discusses the trends in the distribution of global poverty and opens a wider discussion on the potential implications for aid and development cooperation

investing in electricity production under a reliability options scheme abstract reliability options ros are used to enhance the security of supply in electricity systems when a power producer writes a ro s he agrees to set a cap on the price of electricity that s he cashes in return the system operator i e the party that is buying the option pays to the option issuer a fixed premium in this paper we analyze how ros affect the timing and value of investments in the energy sector and we show under what conditions they can be used as investment stimuli we prove that contrarily to what is expected ros can potentially harm the security of supply by delaying the adoption of new capacity and by reducing the value of investing in it to avoid such a result a careful setting of the relevant parameters is needed

risk aversion and block exercise of executive stock options abstract it is well documented that executives granted stock options tend to exercise early and in a few large transactions or blocks standard risk neutral valuation models cannot explain these patterns and attempts to capture the exercise behavior of risk averse executives have been limited to the special case of one option this paper solves for the optimal exercise behavior for a risk averse executive who is granted multiple stock options we show that utility based models do not predict block exercise behavior rather the risk averse executive exercises stock options individually at a sequence of increasing price thresholds when in addition the executive faces frictions such as costly exercise he faces a trade off between exercising little and often to maximize return and exercising larger quantities on fewer occasions to minimize effort this generates realistic block exercise behavior and yields new predictions in particular executives should begin by exercising large blocks of options but the block sizes should become smaller over time our framework also allows us to study the impact of multiple exercise dates on estimates of the cost of options to the company we find that assuming the executive can only exercise on a single occasion underestimates the cost of the options compared with allowing for optimal exercise behavior

on the economics of sustainability abstract the purpose of this paper is to work toward reconciliation of the neoclassical consumer choice axiom that more is better and the ecological concern that more is not sustainable the key is to divide the desired more into its rival and nonrival components for it is the consumption of rival goods such as plastic that strains the ecosystem in contrast the consumption of nonrival goods such as bird watching leaves little to no footprint while sustainability can be enhanced through changing preferences a menu of taxes subsidies and or vouchers can also motivate greater nonrival consumption and therefore sustainability without reducing consumer welfare

sustainability of an economy relying on two reproducible assets evaluating the sustainability of a society requires a system of shadow or accounting values derived from the sustainability objective as a first step toward the derivation of such shadow values for a maximin objective this paper studies an economy composed of two reproducible assets each producing one of two consumption goods the effect of the substitutability between goods in utility is studied by postulating in turn neoclassical diminishing marginal substitutability perfect substitutability and perfect complementarity the degree of substitutability has strong effects on the maximin solution affecting the regularity or non regularity of the program and on the accounting values this has important consequences for the computation of genuine savings and the sustainability prospects of future generations

product services as a research field past present and future reflections from a decade of research in the last decade many researchers institutes and programs in the eu paid attention to product service systems pss given this massive effort it is time to take stock is pss research a theoretical field in its own right is the pss concept indeed the road to the factor 10 world is it the road to enhanced competitiveness what is needed to really use the potential of the concept this paper discusses these questions summarizing the analysis done in the pss review book new business for old europe various eu sponsored projects and the conceptual approach chosen in a new research network on sustainable consumption and production called score 2006 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

economic growth quality environmental sustainability and social welfare in china provincial assessment based on genuine progress indicator gpi abstract in order to devise scientific and sustainable development strategy it is vital to assess the quality of economic growth as a useful complement to traditional economic indicators gpi s most reputed virtue is its great improvement in evaluating environmental and social costs in this paper we estimate the gpi for all 31 provinces in mainland china from 1997 to 2016 gpi estimation is highly sensitive to income inequality climate change damage and depletion of non renewables we address contestable methodological assumptions associated with the three items which have been usually ignored in empirical studies we use the atkinson index in place of the gini index as a measure of income inequality we avoid the problematic duplicated counting of climate change damage and the unjustified cost escalation factor in depletion of non renewables our results show that first gpi per capita has recently declined in some provinces unveiling a threat to social welfare and sustainability second the relative threshold effect the progress of social welfare promotion is slower than the expansion of economic scale has been found in many provinces third resource consumption and environmental pollution especially water pollution and carbon emissions would generate substantial welfare losses

evaluating china s urban environmental sustainability with data envelopment analysis abstract china s rapid urbanization has been characterized by excessive economic growth and a series of environmental issues the urban environmental sustainability of 46 typical chinese cities in 2007 was evaluated with data envelopment analysis in this paper and the malmquist productivity index was used to identify the change within 2006 2007 this analysis employed indicators from economic environmental and resource sub systems which are frequently involved in the concept of environmental sustainability we introduced projecting and benchmarking as two possible approaches for less sustainable cities to refer to their peers based on the computed results and empirical analysis the roles of gdp per capita city scale and industrial structure as influence factors of environmental sustainability were explored and the regional disparity of urban environmental sustainability was also investigated the results show 1 24 of the sample cities e g beijing hohhot etc are relatively environmentally sustainable the efficiency scores of urumqi rank the last 2 gdp per capita city scale and industrial structure factors all exert significant influence on urban environmental sustainability 3 the environmental sustainability of southeast cities leads the 6 major chinese regions and cities around the bohai area are rapidly approaching environmental sustainability

the shallow or the deep ecological economics movement ecological economics and its policy recommendations have become overwhelmed by economic valuation shadow pricing sustainability measures and squeezing nature into the commodity boxes of goods services and capital in order to make it part of mainstream economic financial and banking discourses there are deeper concerns which touch upon the understanding of humanity in its various social psychological political and ethical facets the relationship with nature proposed by the ecological economics movement has the potential to be far reaching however this is not the picture portrayed by surveying the amassed body of articles from this journal or by many of those claiming affiliation a shallow movement allied to a business as usual politics and economy has become dominant and imposes its preoccupation with mainstream economic concepts and values if instead ecological economists choose a path deep into the world of interdisciplinary endeavour they will need to be prepared to transform themselves and society the implications go far beyond the pragmatic use of magic numbers to convince politicians and the public that ecology still has something relevant to say in the 21st century author s abstract

the paradox of growth critique narrative analysis of the finnish sustainable consumption and production debate abstract academic discussion on economic growth and the environment has made a comeback under the auspices of the degrowth debate to date however literature on the topic has been mainly theoretical and empirical studies of actual policy discussions have received less attention this article contributes to the debate with a narrative policy analysis of interviews with members of finland s committee on sustainable consumption and production narrative policy analysis is suitable for complex policy cases by tracing and comparing the different stories non stories and counterstories in the debate the analysis clarifies the issue and paves the way for solutions we found that it is common even among business and ministry representatives to criticize the current growth bound economic system from the perspective of narrative policy analysis however this critique only increases uncertainty and complexity in the policy field which paradoxically leads to a strengthening of the dominant growth stories we suggest that constructing a complete degrowth story is essential for supporting democratic deliberation on sustainability robust institutional support for degrowth work together with research and experimentation are important milestones on the way

population matters in ecological economics abstract it is an axiom of ecological economics that resource depletion and environmental pollution depend on the number of people and how many goods and services each consumes modified by the technological efficiency of production the paper reviews some studies quantifying the contribution of human numbers to environmental impact it warns against playing this factor off against that of high consumption in rich countries it asks whether from the environmental point of view complacency about either present or predicted population size is warranted the answer depends both on fertility and mortality assumptions and on constraints such as resource and food availability the concept of cultural carrying capacity would aid societies in determining their optimal population when account is taken not only of subsistence but of quality of life a population control toolkit for both rich and poor societies is sketched and some controversial coercive policy possibilities analysed

a further critique of growth economics is aggregate physical growth still economic as it was in the empty world or has it become uneconomic as we have moved into the full world era first i discuss why this critical question has been ignored by mainstream economists and policy makers second i consider 11 fallacies or anomalies that confuse reasoning about economic growth and undercut the current policy presumption in its favor

linking daly s proposition to policymaking for sustainable development indicators and pathways abstract the statement that in the full world increasing the ultimate efficiency expressed as service throughput is the necessary condition for humanity to achieve high levels of well being within ecological limits is honoured as daly s proposition in this paper the purpose of this paper is to make daly s proposition effective guidance for policymaking related to sustainable development for this aim this paper puts forward the indicator ecological well being performance which is composed of the human development index and the ecological footprint to measure the ultimate efficiency furthermore by means of matrix analysis and factor decomposition analysis the respective pathways for countries at different stages of development to make the sustainable development transition were discussed the g20 countries were taken as the cases to conduct the research the empirical results show that improvements in well being and increases in throughput level are not necessarily positively related the relationship between the two depends on how countries control throughput levels and improve the ecological well being performance which also explains different performances on the sustainable development transition in a simple way this contribution provides new methods and criteria to track and evaluate national performance on sustainable development by referring to daly s original theories

the growth discourse growth policy and sustainable development two thought experiments abstract this paper addresses three aspects of growth the discourse the policy and the impacts the growth discourse claims that the central factor for social economic political and environmental progress is economic growth it is assumed to create wealth and provide the necessary means for social and environmental purposes on the basis of the growth discourse different growth policies can be derived based on different economic and political ideologies in order to reveal the implications of de facto degrowth two thought experiments are conducted for physical and economic end to growth strategies the latter is capable of meeting environmental objectives but implies significant social tensions and hardships and calls for transition strategies consisting of carefully designed steps

extreme value theory in finance a survey extreme value theory is concerned with the study of the asymptotic distribution of extreme events that is to say events which are rare in frequency and huge in magnitude with respect to the majority of observations statistical methods derived from it have been employed increasingly in finance especially for risk measurement this paper surveys some of those main applications namely for testing different distributional assumptions for the data for value at risk and expected shortfall calculations for asset allocation under safety first type constraints and for the study of contagion and dependence across markets under conditions of stress

us regional income convergence a spatial econometric perspective rey s j and montouri b d 1999 us regional income convergence a spatial econometric perspective reg studies 33 143 156 this study reconsiders the question of us regional economic income convergence from a spatial econometric perspective recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis provide new insights on the geographical dynamics of us regional income growth patterns over the 1929 94 period strong patterns of both global and local spatial autocorrelation are found throughout the study period and the magnitude of global spatial autocorrelation is also found to exhibit strong temporal co movement with regional income dispersion a spatial econometric analysis of the familiar baumol specification reveals strong evidence of misspecification due to ignored spatial error dependence because of this dependence shocks originating in one state can spillover into surrounding states potentially complicating the transitional dynamics of the convergence process rey s j et montouri

different trajectories in the social divisions of labour the cutlery industry in sheffield england and tsubame japan to contribute to the growing debate on the social division of labour and its implications for local development this paper comparatively analyses recent trends in the industrial organisation of the cutlery industry in sheffield and tsubame both industries evolved as flexibly specialised export oriented production systems based on a highly interdependent network of small firms in the past 20 years however the social division of labour underlying sheffield s cutlery industry has been much reduced in size and complexity while tsubame has retained and used its social division of labour to adjust towards more value added production the different trajectories of the two systems reflect different approaches to competitiveness in tsubame the emphasis is on innovation while in sheffield the industry has been extremely conservative placing emphasis on minimising costs

an optimal multiple stopping approach to infrastructure investment decisions abstract the energy and material processing industries are traditionally characterized by very large scale physical capital that is custom built with long lead times and long lifetimes however recent technological advancement in low cost automation has made possible the parallel operation of large numbers of small scale and modular production units amenable to mass production these units can be more rapidly deployed but they are also likely to have a much quicker turnover such a paradigm shift motivates the analysis of the combined effect of lead time and lifetime on infrastructure investment decisions in order to value the underlying real option we introduce an optimal multiple stopping approach that accounts for operational flexibility delay induced by lead time and multiple finite infinite future investment opportunities we provide an analytical characterization of the firm s value function and optimal stopping rule this leads us to develop an iterative numerical scheme and examine how the investment decisions depend on lead time and lifetime as well as other parameters furthermore our model can be used to analyze the critical investment cost that makes small scale short lead time short lifetime alternatives competitive with traditional large scale infrastructure

sizing the earth recognition of economic carrying capacity abstract this paper argues that the biophysical properties of a finite earth and the realities of economic transformation determine the economic carrying capacity of our planet economic carrying capacity takes the form of maximum global economic welfare derivable from the sustainable throughput flows of the ecosphere this is fleshed out by development of a welfare return curve plotted as a function of economic scale the latter is measured by entropic throughput the economic ecological connection is made by employing the ehrlichs equation pat impact as the dual entity being measured on the abscissa this curve shows an initial acceleration which eventually flattens reaches a maximum carrying capacity and is followed by declining welfare the shape of this curve is determined by the rising costs associated with the ecosystemic impact of increasing throughput rates as required by a growing economy the primary thrust of the argument is that not only are economic scales that exceed throughput sustainability definitionally impossible to maintain in the long run but because of declining welfare they are not even desirable in the short run historical movement along this curve is discussed reflecting growth in the global economy an analysis of rising impact costs and the serious mistake of advocating growth to meet these costs is given employing the notion of a social trap also investigated are several additional causes and likely results of pending economic overshoot among these are inter generational penalties of reduced welfare potential from a planet degraded by economic overgrowth several overshoot avoidance prescriptions are offered as well as a discussion of stasis and contraction