fdi and income inequality evidence from a panel of u s states this study employs state level panel data to explore the relationship between inward foreign direct investment fdi and income inequality in the united states using panel cointegration techniques that allow for cross sectional heterogeneity cross sectional dependence and endogenous regressors we find that the short run effects of fdi on income inequality are insignificant or weakly significant and negative in the long run however fdi exerts a significant and robust negative effect on income inequality in the united states this result for the united states as a whole does not imply that fdi narrows income gaps in the long run in each individual state there is considerable heterogeneity in the long run effects of fdi on income inequality across states with some states 21 out of 48 cases exhibiting a positive relationship between fdi in income inequality

foreign wage premium gender and education insights from vietnam household surveys this paper investigates the differential impacts of foreign ownership on wages for different types of workers in terms of educational background and gender in vietnam using the vietnam household living standards surveys of 2002 and 2004 whereas most previous studies have compared wage levels between foreign and domestic sectors using firm level data thus excluding the informal sector one advantage of using the living standards surveys in this paper is that the data allow wage comparison analyses to extend to the informal wage sector a series of mincerian earnings equations and worker specific fixed effects models are estimated several findings emerge first foreign firms pay higher wages relative to their domestic counterparts after controlling for workers personal characteristics second the higher the individual workers levels of education the larger on average are the wage premiums for those who work for foreign firms third longer hours of work in foreign firm jobs relative to working in the informal wage sector are an important component of the wage premium finally unskilled women experience a larger foreign wage premium than unskilled men reflecting the low earning opportunities for women and a higher gender gap in the informal wage sector

taming macroeconomic instability monetary and macro prudential policy interactions in an agent based model abstract we develop an agent based model to study the macroeconomic impact of alternative macro prudential regulations and their possible interactions with different monetary policy rules the aim is to shed light on the most appropriate policy mix to achieve the resilience of the banking sector and foster macroeconomic stability simulation results show that a triple mandate taylor rule focused on output gap inflation and credit growth and a basel iii prudential regulation is the best policy mix to improve the stability of the banking sector and smooth output fluctuations moreover we consider the different levers of basel iii and their combinations we find that minimum capital requirements and counter cyclical capital buffers allow to achieve results close to the basel iii first best with a much more simplified regulatory framework finally the components of basel iii are non additive the inclusion of an additional lever does not always improve the performance of the macro prudential regulation

price dynamics financial fragility and aggregate volatility within a standard framework a la arrow debreu we investigate the dynamics emerging from the interactions of heterogeneous households and firms that are adaptive price setters and financially constrained we show that depending on the stringency of the financial constraints the model can settle in two very different regimes one characterized by equilibrium the other by disequilibrium and financial fragility we then investigate how the structure of the production network affects the emergence of aggregate volatility from micro level price and financial shocks hence providing a dynamical counterpart to recent results of acemoglu and al 2012

a comparison of economic agent based model calibration methods abstract despite significant expansion in recent years the literature on quantitative and data driven approaches to economic agent based model validation and calibration consists primarily of studies that have focused on the introduction of new calibration methods that are neither benchmarked against existing alternatives nor rigorously tested in terms of the quality of the estimates they produce in response we compare a number of prominent agent based model calibration methods both established and novel through a series of computational experiments in an attempt to determine the respective strengths and weaknesses of each approach overall we find that a simple likelihood based approach to bayesian estimation consistently outperforms several members of the more popular class of simulated minimum distance methods and results in reasonable parameter estimates in many contexts with a degradation in performance observed only when considering a large scale model and attempting to fit a substantial number of its parameters

are poverty reduction strategy papers associated with reductions in poverty and improvements in wellbeing should poverty reduction strategy papers prsps be the tool for implementing the new sustainable development goals as they were for the millennium development goals surprisingly despite the controversies around them there has never been a quantitative evaluation of prsps this paper estimates the impact of having a prsp on various targets of the millennium development goals results suggest that countries under prsp treatment achieve much greater reductions than control countries in head count poverty and infant mortality while also achieving greater improvements in primary school enrolments and gender parity

retrospectives friedrich hayek and the market algorithm friedrich a hayek 1899 1992 is known for his vision of the market economy as an information processing system characterized by spontaneous order the emergence of coherence through the independent actions of large numbers of individuals each with limited and local knowledge coordinated by prices that arise from decentralized processes of competition hayek is also known for his advocacy of a broad range of free market policies and indeed considered the substantially unregulated market system to be superior to competing alternatives precisely because it made the best use of dispersed knowledge our purpose in writing this paper is twofold first we believe that hayek s economic vision and critique of equilibrium theory not only remain relevant but apply with greater force as information has become ever more central to economic activity and the complexity of the information aggregation process has become increasingly apparent second we wish to call into question hayek s belief that his advocacy of free market policies follows as a matter of logic from his economic vision the very usefulness of prices and other economic variables as informative messages which is the centerpiece of hayek s economics creates incentives to extract information from signals in ways that can be destabilizing markets can promote prosperity but can also generate crises we will argue accordingly that a hayekian understanding of the economy as an information processing system does not support the type of policy positions that he favored thus we find considerable lasting value in hayek s economic analysis while nonetheless questioning the connection of this analysis to his political philosophy

heterogeneous expectations boom bust housing cycles and supply conditions a nonlinear economic dynamics approach abstract we combine a standard stock flow housing market model incorporating explicit relationships between house prices the housing stock and the rent level with a parsimonious expectation formation scheme of housing market investors reflecting an evolving mix of extrapolative and regressive expectation rules the model results in a two dimensional discrete time nonlinear dynamical system based on realistic parameters the model is able to generate endogenous boom bust housing market dynamics with lasting periods of overvaluation and overbuilding we thus exploit our model to investigate how real forces in particular supply conditions interact with expectations driven housing market fluctuations

an interdisciplinary model for macroeconomics macroeconomic modelling has been under intense scrutiny since the great financial crisis when serious shortcomings were exposed in the methodology used to understand the economy as a whole criticism has been levelled at the assumptions employed in the dominant models particularly that economic agents are homogeneous and optimizing and that the economy is equilibrating this paper seeks to explore an interdisciplinary approach to macroeconomic modelling with techniques drawn from other natural and social sciences specifically it discusses agent based modelling which is used across a wide range of disciplines as an example of such a technique agent based models are complementary to existing approaches and are suited to answering macroeconomic questions where complexity heterogeneity networks and heuristics play an important role

homes and castles should we care about idiosyncratic risk we consider a novel set of data comprising every transaction in the netherlands housing market between 1995 and 2011 and take a closer look at the idiosyncratic risk as it played out in those years shiller and weiss 1999 proposed a home equity insurance policy that eliminates systematic risk we use their insurance scheme as an analytical tool to add detail to the comovement of individual transactions and the market we are particularly interested in the policy s loss coverage efficiency and payout probability at best protection against market risk is only around the half way mark to risk elimination

robust estimation and forecasting of the long term seasonal component of electricity spot prices when building stochastic models for electricity spot prices the problem of uttermost importance is the estimation and consequent forecasting of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data while the short term seasonal components daily weekly are more regular and less important for valuation of typical power derivatives the l ong term seasonal components ltsc seasonal annual are much more diffi cult to tackle surprisingly in many academic papers dealing with electricity spot price modeling the importance of the seasonal decomposition is neglected and the problem of forecasting it is not considered with this paper we want to fill the gap and present a thorough study on estimation and forecasting of the ltsc of electricity spot prices we consider a battery of models based on fourier or wavelet decomposition combined with linear or exponential decay we find that all considered wavelet base d models are significantly better in terms of forecasting spot prices up to a year ahead than all considered sine based models this result questions the validity and usefulness of stochastic models of spot electricity prices built on sinusoidal long term seasonal components

price dynamics among u s electricity spot markets combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis relationships among 11 u s spot market electricity prices are examined results suggest that the relationships among the markets vary by time frame in contemporaneous time the western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the electricity reliability council of texas at longer time frames these separations disappear even though electricity transmission between the regions is limited it appears the relationships among markets are not only a function of physical assets such as transmissions lines among markets but by similar and dissimilar institutional arrangements among the markets

fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies what is the most appropriate combination of fiscal and monetary policies in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions we study this issue using an agent based model that is able to reproduce a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities simulation results suggest that policy mixes associating unconstrained counter cyclical fiscal policy and monetary policy targeting employment is required to stabilise the economy we also show that discipline guided fiscal rules can be self defeating as they depress the economy without improving public finances finally we find that the effects of monetary and fiscal policies become sharper as the level of income inequality increases

foreign owned firms around the world a comparative analysis of wages and employment at the micro level abstract this paper provides the first microeconomic cross country analysis of the effects of foreign ownership on wages employment and worker turnover rates using firm level and linked worker firm data we apply a standardised methodology for three developed germany portugal uk and two emerging economies brazil indonesia we find that wage effects are larger in developing countries and that for each country the largest effect on wages comes from workers who move from domestic to foreign firms employment growth after foreign takeover is concentrated in high skill jobs in contrast to widespread fears there is no evidence that wage gains come at the expense of greater job insecurity separation rates actually fall slightly after takeover we conclude that the positive effect of foreign ownership on wages is not primarily driven by its impact on incumbent wages but by its impact on the creation of high wage jobs

volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in european electricity forward markets using daily data from march 2001 to june 2005 we estimate a var bekk model and find evidence of return and volatility spillovers between the german the dutch and the british forward electricity markets we apply hafner and herwartz 2006 journal of international money and finance 25 719 740 volatility impulse response function virf to quantify the impact of shock on expected conditional volatility we observe that a shock has a high positive impact only if its size is large compared to the current level of volatility the impact of shocks are usually not persistent which may be an indication of market efficiency finally we estimate the density of the virf at different forecast horizon these fitted distributions are asymmetric and show that extreme events are possible even if their probability is low these results have interesting implications for market participants whose risk management policy is based on option prices which themselves depend on the volatility level

on the differential behaviour of national and multinational firms a within and across sectors approach this paper looks for different patterns of behaviour of national firms and multinational enterprises mnes its main contribution is the use of a computable general equilibrium perspective to analyse firms performance the model is calibrated for the case of the czech republic which has been a very attractive foreign direct investment location in the last three decades we replicate the arrival of mnes to different sectors of this country in turn and analyse the responses of both types of firms across the 20 different sectors in which the czech economy has been split our results grasp the short run impact the higher labour intensity of national firms leads them to different patterns of production and labour demand compared with mnes operating within the same sector the demand side of the model particularly exports and private consumption drives the evolution of production and labour demand across sectors regarding prices we also find a differential pattern between both types of firms within and across sectors our analysis offers detailed evidence on how the impact of mnes will differ depending on the sector to which they arrive finally the aggregate results suggest that a completely different microeconomic panorama may underlie rather similar macroeconomic outcomes

cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices insights on transmission efficiency in the western us abstract the us energy policy act of 1992 promoted the development of spot markets for electric power by requiring utilities to open their transmission systems to wholesale power sales in this paper we specify and estimate a vector error correction model using peak and off peak electricity spot prices during 1994 1996 covering 11 regional markets in the western united states and test these prices for evidence of market integration the results show evidence of an efficient and stable wholesale power market

dynamic granger causal networks of electricity spot prices a novel approach to market integration this study uses network theory to analyze the interactions of a representative sample of 13 european eu electricity spot prices during the period 2007 2012 we construct 7651 dynamic multivariate networks where the nodes correspond to different eu countries and the links weight the granger causality between the variations of the respective electricity prices global connectivity is then characterized by the system s density or the total quantity of causal interactivity sustained by the network system which informs about the occurrence of abnormal changes in connectivity we report a considerably large peak lasting from october 2011 to april 2012 where the graph s density over basal jump reached a magnitude of 2 4 times suggesting an improved degree of connectivity of electricity markets during this period by applying the markov regime switching model on the network density we find that this change coincides with the implementation of the european commission s third energy package at the local level the in strength values quantifying the dependence of the electricity price variation of an eu country on other countries validate the reliability of our technique by verifying historical events such as the occurrence of interconnectors commissioning and market coupling on the path to full market integration market networks should be periodically monitored our model which is able to create a time varying network describing the evolving influences between the european electricity prices is able to detect important changes in market integration and can be considered a suitable and promising approach for this task

carbon pricing and electricity markets the case of the australian clean energy bill abstract we examine the impact of the clean energy bill on the price behavior of electricity futures contracts in the australian national electricity market first we compute ex ante forward risk premiums in the pre tax period until june 2012 then derive market implied expectations about additional costs of the carbon pricing mechanism cpm on generators as well as pass through rates during the carbon tax july 2012 june 2014 and post tax after july 2014 periods our results suggest that the observed carbon premiums became increasingly higher once the carbon tax had been proposed and subsequently legislated in 2011 during periods where market participants could be relatively certain that the tax would be effective we find expected carbon pass through rates between 67 and 150 which seem to be inversely related to emission intensities in the regional markets our results are also a clear indication of strong policy uncertainty with regards to the cpm and suggest that in the future a stable and long term policy framework would be required for a carbon pricing mechanism to have its full effect

the effect of foreign direct investment on the urban wage in china an empirical examination how does foreign direct investment fdi affect the wage levels of cities in a host country this paper uses a panel dataset of chinese cities to examine the impact of inward fdi on the urban real wage the results suggest that the existence of fdi has a significant and positive effect on urban real wages and that this impact remains significant after controlling for other city characteristics cross city variation of fdi intensity is one important factor contributing to intercity wage inequality

identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations we introduce heterogeneous expectations in a standard housing market model linking housing rental levels to fundamental buying prices using quarterly data we estimate the model parameters for eight different countries us uk nl jp ch es se and be we find that the data support heterogeneity in expectations with temporary endogenous switching between fundamental mean reverting and trend following chartists beliefs based on their relative performance for all countries we identify temporary house price bubbles amplified by trend extrapolation and crashes reinforced by fundamentalists the qualitative predictions of such non linear models are very different from standard linear benchmarks with important policy implications the fundamental price becomes unstable e g when the interest rate is set too low or mortgage tax deductions too high giving rise to multiple non fundamental equilibria and or global instability

volatility impulse response functions for multivariate garch models an exchange rate illustration we introduce a new concept of impulse response functions tracing the effects of independent shocks on volatility through time while avoiding typical orthogonalization and ordering problems in an empirical study of a bivariate foreign exchange fx rate series we use volatility impulse response functions to discuss the effects of central bank decisions such as direct interventions in the fx market or open market activities on fx market volatility comparing our concept with conditional moment profiles introduced by gallant et al gallant a r rossi p e tauchen g 1993 nonlinear dynamic structures econometrica 61 871 907 we show that for shocks affecting fx rates in an asymmetric way the difference between the two methodologies and their interpretation can be substantial

paying more to hire the best foreign firms wages and worker mobility i introduction as globalization evolves there is greater interest in its labor market implications one dimension of this question concerns the role of foreign firms in terms of their remuneration of host economy workers while earlier cross sectional evidence suggests that foreign firms offer more generous pay levels than their domestic counterparts aitken et al 1996 feenstra and hanson 1997 some of these results have been questioned in recent research based on longitudinal worker level data martins 2004 heyman et al 2007 andrews et al 2007 moreover firm level studies based on foreign acquisitions of domestic firms find mixed results 1 the main problem in research about the foreign ownership wage differential concerns unobserved heterogeneity across workers employed in either domestic or foreign firms if firm affiliation is correlated with other factors that may affect wages but that are not controlled for then estimates will be biased while some research that aims to tackle this issue considers the case of acquisitions when the same workers can be observed under the two types of firms here we approach the unobserved heterogeneity challenge from an original perspective worker mobility specifically we draw upon a longitudinal census of the portuguese labor market in order to consider virtually all spells of interfirm worker mobility over a long period of time 1991 2000 such mobility spells allow us to observe the same workers when employed by domestic and foreign firms in order to disentangle the wage policy of the firm from the heterogeneity of the workforce we also consider selection effects namely the unexplained differences in the wages of workers who are to experience a movement to a different firm before such movement occurs these unexplained wage differences are likely to capture additional skills not measured in the data but that are observable by those workers current employers such as ability motivation etc on the other hand the wage policy effect which is more directly related to the goal of this paper concerns differences in remuneration experienced by workers who engage in interfirm mobility as they move between firms such differences in remuneration practices across firms are predicted by noncompetitive models of the labor market namely efficiency wages and search models moreover the scope for such wage policy differences is also supported by abundant empirical evidence including that of rent sharing discrimination cohort effects and other evidence of firm heterogeneity in general abowd et al 1999 bartelsman and doms 2000 as far as we know our paper is the first to conduct a systematic analysis of interfirm worker mobility drawing on census data these population data are particularly important for our purpose as the analysis of even large samples would dramatically diminish one s ability to follow workers over time furthermore we are the first to conduct such an extensive analysis in the context of the foreign ownership wage differential literature 2 finally our results may also be useful in terms of reconciling some contrasting evidence for different countries and in terms of shedding light on the role of worker mobility as a channel of productivity spillovers from foreign to domestic firms fosfuri et al 2001 javorcik 2004 unlike earlier research based on foreign acquisitions our paper finds very strong evidence of a sizeable positive wage policy effect for foreign firms however selection effects are also present but at a much smaller scale these results are robust to a number of checks including the consideration of the case of displaced workers and an analysis of the wage growth patterns of movers when in hiring firms the structure of the paper is as follows section ii describes the data sections iii and iv present the results and the robustness analysis finally section v concludes

residential income segregation a behavioral model of the housing market abstract we represent the functioning of the housing market and study the relation between income segregation income inequality and house prices by introducing a spatial agent based model abm differently from traditional models in urban economics we explicitly specify the behavior of buyers and sellers and the price formation mechanism buyers who differ by income select among heterogeneous neighborhoods using a probabilistic model of residential choice sellers employ an aspiration level heuristic to set their reservation offer price prices are determined through a continuous double auction we first provide an approximate analytical solution of the abm shedding light on the structure of the model and on the effect of the parameters we then simulate the abm and find that i a more unequal income distribution lowers the prices globally but implies stronger segregation ii a spike in demand in one part of the city increases the prices all over the city iii subsidies are more efficient than taxes in fostering social mixing

reassessing the integration of european electricity markets a fractional cointegration analysis this study extends existing literature on the assessment of electricity market integration in europe by developing and testing hypotheses on the convergence of electricity wholesale prices and adopting a time varying fractional cointegration analysis in addition the potential impacts of some special events that may affect system capacity new interconnection market coupling increase in share of intermittent generation on spot and forward markets are considered and evaluated daily spot prices from february 2000 to march 2013 of nine european electricity spot markets apx uk apx nl belpex epex fr epex de ipex nordpool omel and ote and month ahead prices in four markets french british german and dutch from november 2007 to december 2012 are investigated results show that unit root tests which are generally used in the literature to test market integration are inadequate for assessing electricity spot market convergence because spot prices are found to be fractionally integrated and mean reverting time series furthermore spot price behaviour and their association with different markets change over time reflecting changes in the eu electrical system one month ahead prices by contrast were found to have become more resilient to shocks and to follow more stable trends

spot and derivative pricing in the eex power market using spot and futures price data from the german eex power market we test the adequacy of various one factor and two factor models for electricity spot prices the models are compared along two different dimensions 1 we assess their ability to explain the major data characteristics and 2 the forecasting accuracy for expected future spot prices is analyzed we find that the regime switching models clearly outperform its competitors in almost all respects the best results are obtained using a two regime model with a gaussian distribution in the spike regime furthermore for short and medium term periods our results underpin the frequently stated hypothesis that electricity futures quotes are consistently greater than the expected future spot a situation which is denoted as contango

wages and foreign ownership a comparative study of mexico venezuela and the united states abstract this paper explores the relationship between wages and foreign investment in mexico venezuela and the united states despite very different economic conditions and levels of development we find one fact that is robust across all three countries higher levels of foreign investment are associated with higher wages however in mexico and venezuela foreign investment is associated with higher wages only for foreign owned firms there is no evidence of wage spillovers leading to higher wages for domestic firms the lack of spillovers in mexico and venezuela is consistent with significant wage differentials between foreign and domestic enterprises in the united states where the evidence suggests some wage spillovers from foreign to domestic enterprises wage differentials are smaller

the effect of foreign acquisition on employment and wages evidence from finnish establishments employee characteristics by skill groups makes it possible to disentangle the effect of foreign ownership on wages from its effects on the quality of the workforce furthermore this information allows us to examine the heterogeneity of the effect of foreign acquisition on wages and employment third the long timespan of our data thirteen years enables us to consider the effects of foreign acquisition in the long run hiring and firing costs may delay the effects of foreign acquisition by looking at the effects of acquisition in several periods after it has taken place these delays can be taken into account we believe finland to be an interesting case study for the effects of foreign ownership it is a typical example of a small open economy where foreign investment plays an important role furthermore our data cover the years 1988 2001 when the share of foreign direct investments rose rapidly in finland this increase is depicted in figure 1 and it partly reflects the worldwide trend in foreign direct investment but the years 1988 2001 were also characterized by two phenomena which undoubtedly led to the increase in the share of foreign owned firms first finland experienced a very severe recession in the early 1990s and the recovery from this crisis was associated with a rapid restructuring of the economy and a growth of new industries in particular the export oriented high tech sector 2 second finland joined the european union in 1995 which naturally removed a considerable number of barriers to foreign investment in the finnish economy the results derived by both matching and regression methods indicate that foreign acquisition has a positive effect on wages in all skill groups this wage increase is not immediate but occurs within one to three years after the acquisition the magnitude of this effect increases with the level of schooling of the workers the results indicate that there is a small decrease in the share of highly educated workers after foreign acquisition the decrease in the share of highly educated workers after acquisition also seems to hold for domestic acquisitions the paper is organized as follows the next section briefly describes the theoretical background for the analysis and reviews some previous empirical findings the third section describes the statistical framework and the fourth section presents the data sets the results are provided in the fifth section the last section concludes the paper

integration of regional electricity markets in australia a price convergence assessment abstract from an electricity market design perspective it is relevant and practical to know which market structures allow for price convergence and how long this takes to achieve this study employs the phillips and sul 2007 2009 methodology to test for the convergence of wholesale electricity prices across the australian states we identify a long run common price growth pattern that applies to a cluster formed by three eastern states that share common market characteristics and limited physical interconnection we also find another cluster with less competitive market structures that although not interconnected strongly converge towards their own trend these findings confirm theoretical expectations while quantifying the rate of convergence finally we also investigate the role that the carbon tax regime has played in the convergence process with new empirical showing that the previous results are not affected with the notable exception being the case of south australia

an empirical comparison of alternate regime switching models for electricity spot prices one of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes markov regime switching mrs models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior however in the studies published so far the goodness of fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus while most of the models were elegant their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored with this paper we want to fill the gap we calibrate and test a range of mrs models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well we find that the most universal and robust structure is that of an independent spike 3 regime model with heteroscedastic diffusion type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions

unraveling the mne wage premium whereas ib has extensively studied mnes generic positive impact on host economies but rarely on employee wages economics research has only shown an overall mne wage premium we unravel this premium considering multiple levels of analysis and accounting for host country contextual contingencies to unveil mnes different positive or negative distributional effects using unique micro level data from over 40 000 employees in 13 countries we examine mnes distributional effects for employees gender experience and immigrant status the influence of host country property rights protection and labor regulation and interplays with region and industry effects mnes distributional effects show marked differences that largely depend on the host country context and that are positive for experienced and foreign born employees in developed countries but negative for females working in developing countries whereas in developed countries the gender wage gap is smaller in mnes than in domestic firms as hypothesized we find evidence of a larger wage gap in developing countries the analysis also reveals that the higher host countries level of property rights protection the lower the mne wage premium our study points at the need to reassess statements about the generic positive impact of mnes in host countries particularly in developing countries and discusses further research implications

the case of negative day ahead electricity prices in recent years germany has significantly increased its share of electricity produced from renewable sources which is mainly due to the renewable energy act eeg the eeg substantially impacts the dynamics of intra day electricity prices by increasing the likelihood of negative prices in this paper we present a non gaussian process to model german intra day electricity prices and propose an estimation procedure for this model most importantly our model is able to generate extreme positive and negative spikes a simulation study demonstrates the ability of our model to capture the characteristics of the data

getting at systemic risk via an agent based model of the housing market systemic risk must include the housing market though economists have not generally focused on it we begin construction of an agent based model of the housing market with individual data from washington dc twenty years of success with agent based models of mortgage prepayments give us hope that such a model could be useful preliminary analysis suggests that the housing boom and bust of 1997 2007 was due in large part to changes in leverage rather than interest rates

inequality household debt and financial instability an agent based perspective abstract our paper contributes to the literature on the causes of the 2007 2008 financial crisis in the united states by means of an agent based model we replicate an artificial credit network economy in order to assess the impact of growing income inequality in the presence of peer effects and home equity borrowing we show that the resulting debt financed consumption boom jeopardises the stability of the economic system thus paving the way for a financial crisis our model includes a behavioural rule for consumption based on expenditure cascades a hierarchical structure of household finance an articulated credit market with collateralised consumption loans and mortgages and a simple housing market results show that the model is able to capture the economic and social pressure of inequality on low and middle income households that pushes them to increase their consumption via home equity extraction rising non performing loans lead to higher bad debt on the banks balance sheets and consequently to the emergence of a crisis as an endogenous dynamic

stochastic price modeling of high volatility mean reverting spike prone commodities the australian wholesale spot electricity market it is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility strong mean reversion and frequent extreme price spikes this paper employs a basic stochastic model a mean reverting model and a regime switching model to capture these features in the australian national electricity market nem comprising the interconnected markets of new south wales queensland south australia and victoria daily spot prices from 1 january 1999 to 31 december 2004 are employed the results show that the regime switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean reverting models electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean reversion after a price spike than in the normal period and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods the probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5 16 in nsw and 9 44 in victoria

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

wage and competition channels of foreign direct investment and new firm entry using a rich data set of the dutch manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2010 we investigate the effect of foreign direct investment fdi on domestic new firm entry the emerging empirical literature has focused on the direct relationship between fdi and entry but has not explored the mechanisms behind the observed effect drawing on a simultaneous equations model our analysis features both the direct effect of fdi as well as indirect effects through two channels industry competition and wages we estimate the parameters through 3sls and take into account the endogeneity of competition and wages with respect to entry our results show that there is a significant negative direct effect of fdi on entry at the same time fdi decreases competition and increases wage levels which then impact entry positively and negatively respectively the total effect of fdi is negative but small and virtually disappears after one year policy implications are discussed

modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants as such a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region this paper is the first to develop a multivariate self exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the australian national electricity market the importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined it is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity it is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter regional linkages are taken into account

multinational firms and technology transfer the authors construct an oligopoly model in which a multinational firm has a technology superior to those of local firms in the host country workers employed by the multinational acquire knowledge of the superior technology and can spread their knowledge to local firms by switching employers the multinational chooses to pay a wage premium to prevent local firms from hiring away its workers if the local firms are sufficiently disadvantaged or if there are enough local firms diffusion of the superior technology benefits local firms at the expense of workers whose wages suffer the host government might have an incentive to attract foreign direct investment even when technology transfer will not result because of the wage premium local employees of the multinational firm earn also foreign direct investment with technology transfer may reduce the total economic rent the host country earns

characterizing the financial cycle evidence from a frequency domain analysis a growing body of literature argues that the financial cycle is considerably longer in duration and larger in amplitude than the business cycle and that its distinguishing features became more pronounced over time this paper proposes an empirical approach suitable to test these hypotheses we parametrically estimate the whole spectrum of financial and real variables to obtain a complete picture of their cyclical properties we provide strong statistical evidence for the us and slightly weaker evidence for the uk validating the hypothesized features of the financial cycle in germany however the financial cycle is if at all much less visible

exploring sprawl results from an economic agent based model of land and housing markets this paper uses an economic agent based model of land use in a growing community on the urban fringe to explore the importance of key economic variables on the spatial patterns of development over time understanding dispersed patterns of urban development is important for designing policies for mitigating the environmental and other adverse effects of urban sprawl the model includes as agents heterogeneous farmer landowners and housing consumers and a representative developer who buys land and builds houses underlying economic behavior of consumer utility maximization and developer and farmer profit maximization is assumed a unique feature of the model is that housing is characterized by variation in both lot size and house size allowing for exploration of the effects of changes in key parameters on both land and housing markets and the interaction between them the paper explores the relative importance of consumer preferences spatial distribution of agricultural productivity and travel costs in creating sprawling development patterns consumer preferences for large lots do result in more land in development and lower density but leap frog development in the model appears to be driven by other economic influences as well and in general more stable housing prices mute the effect of more variable land prices and tend to dampen the effects of economic shocks to the urbanizing area

modelling price and volatility inter relationships in the australian wholesale spot electricity markets this paper examines the inter relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the australian national electricity market nem namely new south wales queensland south australia and victoria using the constant conditional correlation and tse and tsui s tse y k tsui a k c 2002 a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time varying correlations journal of business and economic statistics 20 3 351 362 and engle s engle r 2002 dynamic conditional correlation a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models journal of business and economic statistics 20 3 339 350 dynamic conditional correlation multivariate garch models tse and tsui s tse y k tsui a k c 2002 a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time varying correlations journal of business and economic statistics 20 3 351 362 dynamic conditional correlation multivariate garch model which takes account of the student t specification produces the best results at the univariate garch 1 1 level the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets in the dynamic conditional correlation equation the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well interconnected markets

transmission of prices and price volatility in australian electricity spot markets a multivariate garch analysis this paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five regional electricity markets in the australian national electricity market namely new south wales queensland south australia the snowy mountains hydroelectric scheme and victoria a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to identify the source and magnitude of price and price volatility spillovers the results indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in only a small number of markets and no mean spillovers between any of the markets this appears to be directly related to the physical transfer limitations of the present system of regional interconnection nevertheless the large number of significant own volatility and cross volatility spillovers in all five markets indicates the presence of strong autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects this indicates that shocks in some markets will affect price volatility in others finally and contrary to evidence from studies in north american electricity markets the results also indicate that australian electricity spot prices are stationary

econometric modeling of regional electricity spot prices in the australian market abstract wholesale electricity markets are increasingly integrated via high voltage interconnectors and inter regional trade in electricity is growing to model this we consider a spatial equilibrium model of price formation where constraints on inter regional flows result in three distinct equilibria in prices we use this to motivate an econometric model for the distribution of observed electricity spot prices that captures many of their unique empirical characteristics the econometric model features supply and inter regional trade cost functions which are estimated using bayesian monotonic regression smoothing methodology a copula multivariate time series model is employed to capture additional dependence both cross sectional and serial in regional prices the marginal distributions are nonparametric with means given by the regression means the model has the advantage of preserving the heavy right hand tail in the predictive densities of price we fit the model to half hourly spot price data in the five interconnected regions of the australian national electricity market the fitted model is then used to measure how both supply and price shocks in one region are transmitted to the distribution of prices in all regions in subsequent periods finally to validate our econometric model we show that prices forecast using the proposed model compares favorably with those from some benchmark alternatives

the unemployment volatility puzzle is wage stickiness the answer i discuss the failure of the canonical search and matching model to match the cyclical volatility in the job finding rate i show that job creation in the model is influenced by wages in new matches i summarize microeconometric evidence and find that wages in new matches are volatile and consistent with the model s key predictions therefore explanations of the unemployment volatility puzzle have to preserve the cyclical volatility of wages i discuss a modification of the model based on fixed matching costs that can increase cyclical unemployment volatility and is consistent with wage flexibility in new matches

frictional unemployment on labor flow networks abstract we develop an alternative theory to the aggregate matching function in which workers search for jobs through a network of firms the labor flow network the lack of an edge between two companies indicates the impossibility of labor flows between them due to high frictions in equilibrium firms hiring behavior correlates through the network generating highly disaggregated local unemployment hence aggregation depends on the topology of the network in non trivial ways this theory provides new micro foundations for the beveridge curve wage dispersion and the employer size premium we apply our model to employer employee matched records and find that network topologies with pareto distributed connections cause disproportionately large changes on aggregate unemployment under high labor supply elasticity

strategic bidding and rebidding in electricity markets abstract successful deregulation in electricity markets depends crucially on the ability of market regulation to promote and maintain free competition there are however important physical characteristics in electricity markets such as the constraints imposed by the physical transmission infrastructure that have the potential to undermine competition and provide opportunities for market participants to exploit temporary positions of market power in this paper the regional market of queensland australia is analysed it is found that strategic behaviour by generators exists and is closely related to the occurrence of the kind of extreme price events that characterise many deregulated electricity markets in addition rebidding behaviour by base load generators immediately after extreme price events is shown to have negative impacts on the operation of the market the key message is that promotion of competition in electricity markets can have undesirable consequences unless the regulatory policy is carefully designed to counter strategic behaviour by market participants

foreign direct investment education and wages in indonesian manufacturing this paper examines whether the higher wages paid by foreign owned manufacturing plants than by domestically owned plants typical of most countries represents a higher price for labor that is does it reflect a higher price for workers of a given quality as represented by the level of education we then ask whether foreign owned plants pay a higher price for labor given the characteristics of the plants foreign owned firms are found to pay a higher price for labor of a given educational level than domestically owned ones only a part of the difference is associated with plant characteristics rather than ownership

do multinationals deteriorate developing countries export prices the impact of fdi on net barter terms of trade this paper explores the economic relationship between foreign direct investment fdi to developing countries and the export prices of the latter measured by terms of trade it is rst shown that economic theory suggests such a relationship for various reasons but is inconclusive about the direction of the eect to address this open issue empirically i analyze data on more than 50 developing countries throughout the period 1980 2008 using robust dynamic panel data methods the results show that fdi had an economically relevant and statistically signicant positive impact on developing countries net barter terms of trade a higher level of education in the developing country fosters this eect

electricity wholesale market prices in europe convergence abstract this paper tests the hypothesis that the ongoing restructuring process in the european electricity sector has led to a common european market for electricity based on a principal component analysis pca of wholesale electricity prices in 2002 2006 we reject the assumption of full market integration for several pairs of countries the weaker hypothesis of bilateral convergence is accepted based on unit root tests kpss and adf and a convergence test based on filtered pairwise price relations this indicates that the efforts to develop a single european market for electricity were so far only partially successful we show that the daily auction prices of scarce cross border transmission capacities are insufficient to explain the persistence of international price differentials empirically our findings confirm the insufficiency of explicit capacity auctions as stated in the theoretical literature

is there really a foreign ownership wage premium evidence from matched employer employee data numerous studies on firm level data have reported higher average wages in foreign owned firms than in domestically owned firms this however does not necessarily imply that the individual worker s wage increase with foreign ownership using detailed matched employer employee data on the entire swedish private sector we examine the effect of foreign ownership on individual wages controlling for individual and firm heterogeneity as well as for possible selection bias in foreign acquisitions we distinguish between foreign greenfields and takeovers and compare foreign owned firms with both domestic multinationals and local firms our results show a considerably smaller wage premium in foreign owned firms than what has been found in studies conducted at a more aggregate level moreover foreign takeovers of swedish firms tend to have no or even a negative effect on wages

integration and shock transmissions across european electricity forward markets abstract new results are presented relating to the integration of the french german british dutch and spanish power markets at day ahead week ahead one month ahead and two month ahead lead times overall there is evidence of market integration increasing over time despite an underlying inefficiency in each market with respect to the forward and spot price convergence the spatial analysis on a financial dimension is undertaken using causality tests cointegration and impulse response techniques for both price levels and volatilities in general we find less influence of the size and proximity of neighbouring markets than other studies more integration at baseload than peak and surprisingly less integration in forwards than spot prices

spatial housing economics a survey this introduction to the virtual special issue surveys the development of spatial housing economics from its roots in neoclassical theory through more recent developments in social interactions modelling and touching on the role of institutions path dependence and economic history the survey also points to some of the more promising future directions for the subject that are beginning to appear in the literature the survey covers elements of hedonic models spatial econometrics neighbourhood models housing market areas housing supply models of segregation migration housing tenure subnational house price modelling including the so called ripple effect and agent based models possible future directions are set in the context of a selection of recent papers that have appeared in urban studies nevertheless there are still important gaps in the literature that merit further attention arising at least partly from emerging policy problems these include more research on housing and biodiversity

a long term short term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility abstract in this paper we introduce a new stochastic long term short term model for short term electricity prices and apply it to four major european indices namely to the german dutch uk and nordic one we give evidence that all time series contain certain periodic mostly annual patterns and show how to use the wavelet transform a tool of multiresolution analysis for filtering purpose the wavelet transform is also applied to separate the long term trend from the short term oscillation in the seasonal adjusted log prices in all time series we find evidence for dynamic volatility which we incorporate by using a bivariate garch model with constant correlation eventually we fit various models from the existing literature to the data and come to the conclusion that our approach performs best for the error distribution the normal inverse gaussian distribution shows the best fit

foreign ownership and wages evidence from hungary 1986 2008 this article estimates the wage effects of foreign direct investment fdi using firm level and linked employer employee panel data containing a large number of foreign acquisitions over a long per

modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes abstract we consider the problem of forecasting the occurrence of extreme prices in the australian electricity markets from high frequency spot prices in particular we are interested in the simultaneous occurrence of such so called spikes in two or more markets our approach is based on a novel dynamic model for multivariate binary outcomes which allows the latent variables driving these observed outcomes to follow a vector autoregressive process furthermore the model is constructed using a copula representation for the joint distribution of the resulting innovations this has several advantages over the standard multivariate probit model first it allows for nonlinear dependence between the error terms second the distribution of the latent errors can be chosen freely third the computational burden can be greatly reduced making estimation feasible in higher dimensions and for large samples the model is applied to spikes in half hourly electricity prices in four interconnected australian markets the multivariate model provides a superior fit compared to single equation models and generates better forecasts for spike probabilities furthermore evidence of spillover dynamics between the markets is revealed

double tax discrimination to attract fdi and fight profit shifting the role of cfc rules abstract governments worldwide use targeted tax policies to trade off the gains from increased fdi against the cost of excessive profit shifting by multinational firms we show that nationally optimal tax systems generally incorporate both thin capitalization rules which tax discriminate between purely national and multinational firms and controlled foreign company cfc rules which discriminate between home based and foreign based multinationals in the non cooperative policy equilibrium both thin capitalization rules and cfc rules are set more lenient than if tax policies were chosen cooperatively implying an excessive tax discrimination in favor of multinationals we also analyze the effects of reduced transaction costs for fdi and reduced costs for debt shifting on the optimal policy mix our results correspond to the observed developments of anti avoidance rules in oecd countries

the role of fdi in structural change evidence from mexico foreign direct investment fdi flows to mexico are substantial and play an important role in the mexican economy since the mid 1990s these investments reflect the activities of multinational firms that shape to some extent the economic landscape and sectoral structure in this host country we illustrate that there is considerable variation in the amounts of fdi and structural change within the country and across time based on this the papers main purpose is to analyze whether there is a significant impact of fdi on structural change we conduct an empirical analysis covering the period 2006 2016 we use the fixed effects estimator where the unit of observation is a mexican state for which we calculate structural change from the reallocation of labor between sectors the results suggest that if any there is a positive effect from fdi on growth enhancing structural change this effect depends critically on the lag structure of fdi moreover there is some evidence that the positive effect i arises from fdi flows in the industry sector and ii is present for medium and low skilled labor reallocation

germany s nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in europe this paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected european electricity markets more specifically it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in germany during 2011 the short and long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices from november 2009 to october 2012 in apx endex belpex epex de epex fr nordpool omel and swissix and wind power in the german system are analysed two mgarch multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long run behaviour of electricity spot prices results show positive time varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity a negative association between wind power penetration in germany and electricity spot prices in the german and neighbouring markets and for most markets a decreasing speed in mean reversion

income inequality consumption credit and credit risk in a data driven agent based model abstract the issue of income inequality occupies a prominent position in the research agenda of academic and policy circles alike especially after the crisis of 2008 due to its potential causal link with the development of credit bubbles and therefore the emergence of financial crises this paper examines the long run effect of income inequality on consumption consumer credit and non performing loans through the means of a data driven agent based model the data driven nature of the model enhances its ability to match historical series and thus makes it suitable for policy simulations tailored for specific economies the analysis indicates that higher income inequality has a detrimental impact on consumption and is associated with lower volumes of consumer credit however the ratio of non performing loans as a share of total loans seems to be independent of income inequality

foreign firms and chinese employment this paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment fdi on employment in the chinese manufacturing sector as one of the world s largest recipients of fdi china has arguably benefited from foreign multinational enterprises in various respects however one of the main challenges for china and other developing countries is job creation and the effect of fdi on employment is uncertain the effect depends on the amount of jobs created within foreign firms as well as the effect of fdi on employment in domestic firms we analyse fdi and employment in china using a large sample of manufacturing firms for the period 1998 2004 our results show that fdi has positive effects on employment growth the relatively high employment growth in foreign firms is associated with their firm characteristics and their high survival rate employment growth is also relatively high in private domestic chinese firms there also seems to be a positive indirect effect of fdi on employment in private domestically owned firms presumably caused by spillovers

a dynamic network analysis of spot electricity prices in the australian national electricity market abstract this study applies dynamic network analysis to the power sector examining the relationship between regional spot electricity prices in the australian national electricity market nem in particular we employ principal component analysis and generate granger causality networks to examine the degree of interconnectedness of the nem in a time varying setting we find that the derived measures of interdependence can be related to actual market events such as price spikes unexpected high demand for electricity sudden increases in price volatility rebidding of dominant generators the temporary or permanent outage of major power stations and upgrades and limitations in transmission capacity in the analysed network we find that stronger dependence is exhibited by regional markets that are linked through interconnectors while the direction of granger causality can be related to interregional trade we further examine the usefulness of the derived measures for forecasting distributional characteristics of spot prices such as the maximum price volatility price spreads or upcoming periods of price spikes our results suggest that the derived network measures have predictive power albeit limited for the behaviour of spot electricity prices in the nem