theoretical and empirical advantages of truncated count data estimators for analysis of deer hunting in california truncated poisson and truncated negative binomial count data models as well as standard count data models ols nonlinear normal and truncated nonlinear normal mle were used to estimate demand for deer hunting in california the truncated count data estimators and their properties are reviewed a large sample n 2223 allowed random segmenting of the data into specification estimation and out of sample prediction portions statistics of interest are therefore unbiased by the specification search and the prediction results allow comparison of the statistical models robustness the new estimators are found to be more appropriate for estimating and predicting demand and social benefits than the alternative estimators based on a variety of criteria

multivariate count data regression models with individual panel data from an on site sample the purpose of this paper is to consider the problem of controlling for on site sampling in the context of a system or panel of demand equations specifically in the context of recreation demand we are concerned with the situation in which survey respondents are asked to provide information not only about the actual trips to a specific site observed behavior but also their anticipated trips either under current conditions or given price and quality changes a multivariate poisson log normal mpln model and a seemingly unrelated negative binomial sunb model are used to jointly model the observed and contingent behavior data and to correct for on site sampling

econometric developments in agricultural and resource economics the first 100 years this article reviews the major contributions of agricultural and resource economists in the area of econometrics over the past 100 years early on a number of agricultural economists were in on the ground floor in terms of developing new econometric methods over time as the economics profession became more empirically oriented agricultural and resource economists increasingly assumed the role of early adopters of new econometric methods even so agricultural and resource economists continue to make useful modifications to econometric techniques in order to adapt the methods to the unique nature of the problems and applications that we study

modeling the demand for sicilian regional parks a compound poisson approach this analysis examines the demand for a system of regional parks in sicily italy the analysis utilizes conventional count data methods that do not account for correlation across parks as well as a new model that allows for cross site correlation and dispersion in this model the degree of dispersion and cross site correlation is shown to evolve as individual grow older older individuals exhibit less dispersion and or cross site correlation

a hedonic travel cost analysis for valuation of multiple components of site quality the recreation value of forest management abstract one benefit of managing forests is that one can alter the qualities of sites the value of changing site qualities however is generally not known this paper develops a formal hedonic travel cost model which can be used to estimate the value of both marginal and non marginal changes to sites the approach accommodates multiple simultaneous changes in site characteristics estimating this model using a set of permits from wilderness areas leads to revealed preference estimates of the recreational value of clear cuts old growth and nine other wilderness attributes

sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations abstract this paper presents a multisector dynamic general equilibrium model of business cycles with a distinctive feature aggregate fluctuations are driven by independent sectoral shocks the model hypothesizes that trade among sectors provides a strong synchronization mechanism for these shocks due to the limited but locally intense interaction that is characteristic of such input trade flows limited interaction characterized by a sparse intermediate input use matrix reduces substitution possibilities among intermediate inputs which strengthens comovement in sectoral value added and leads to a postponement of the law of large numbers in the variance of aggregate value added the chief virtue of this model is that reliance on implausible aggregate shocks is not necessary to capture the qualitative features of macroeconomic fluctuations building on horvath 1998 review of economic dynamics 1 781 808 which establishes the theoretical foundation for the relevance of limited interaction in the context of a stylized multisector model this paper specifies a more general multisector model calibrated to the us 2 digit standard industrial code economy simulations prove the model is able to match empirical reality as closely as standard one sector business cycle models without relying on aggregate shocks

a panel travel cost model accounting for endogenous stratification and truncation a latent class approach in this paper we develop a panel data negative binomial count model that corrects for endogenous stratification and truncation we also incorporate a latent class structure into our panel specification which assumes that the observations are drawn from a finite number of segments where the distributions differ in the intercept and the coefficients of the explanatory variables the paper argues that count data panel models corrected for on site sampling may still be inadequate and potentially misleading if the population of interest is heterogeneous with respect to the impact of the chosen explanatory variables jel q51 q57

when are forest visits valued the most an analysis of the seasonal demand for forest recreation in poland while the demand for forest recreation has been a topic covered in many studies little attention has been paid so far to seasonal demand in a forest context the seasonal analysis is particularly interesting because of inter temporal change in forest attributes throughout the year which can influence trip taking behavior in this paper the model of seasonal forest visitation is developed to provide a richer understanding of the role played by seasonal fluctuation on a distribution of forest social benefits the analysis is based on an on site survey conducted in four forests in poland results show that the most valuable forest trips are those taken in fall and that seasonal trips are separable

an analysis of count data models for the study of exclusivity in wine consumption several models which analyse count data have been proposed in econometric literature these models allow the discrete nonnegative nature of specific phenomena of interest to be gathered in a appropriate way and can be useful for the explanation of specific preference structures among individuals in this work an analysis of the number of wine types consumed by residents of tenerife is carried out with an aim to observe which characteristics determine the exclusivity in its consumption given the current context of increased competition in this sector the specific characteristics of the considered variable allow the study to cover two aspects the first is methodological and is seen by the variety of models that may be considered in this case this focus consists in comparing several possibilities which fit the type of count data involved the second aspect is clearly empirical and is based on the description of not only the most appropriate decision making mechanism for the study but in the identif

comparing regional technical efficiency in uk manufacturing plants the case of northern ireland 1974 1995 this paper uses estimates based on the stochastic frontier production function approach applied to more than 200 four digit uk manufacturing industries covering the period 1974 95 it is shown that manufacturing plants in northern ireland on average operated at lower levels of technical efficiency when compared to their counterparts in other regions of the uk and especially plants located in south east england this lower level of efficiency in the province is analysed both at the aggregate level and the industry level at the industry level the province has fewer plants exhibiting the highest levels of efficiency within most industries and too few plants open and close to cleanse manufacturing of the worst plants and those plants that do open and close often do not have efficiency levels such as to bring about improvements to the aggregate efficiency level the major conclusion is that northern ireland needs to reduce the long tail of weaker plants that tend to drag down average efficiency one w

estimating fishing and hunting leisure spending shares in the united states abstract we apply a bivariate censored demand system to estimate hunting and fishing trip related spending shares in the united states using data from off site surveys the approach considers fishing and hunting destination decisions and includes respondents who were inactive i e did not hunt or fished in a particular season the statistical significance of correlation coefficient parameter supports the use of a joint e g bivariate rather than separate e g univariate decision modeling process for fishing or hunting share equations most individual characteristics are statistically significant as explanatory variables respondents holding recreation licenses tended to spend significantly more on recreation than those without licenses all own price and cross price elasticities are statistically significant and suggest that hunting and fishing are complements the results also suggest that the popularity of hunting may decline as the population ages

monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods abstract in a structural vector autoregressive model of the us the response of the relative price of durables to a monetary policy contraction is either flat or mildly positive it significantly falls only if narrowly defined as the ratio between new house and nondurables prices these findings are rationalized via the estimation of two sector new keynesian nk models durables prices are estimated to be as sticky as those of nondurables leading to a flat relative price response to a monetary policy shock conversely house prices are estimated to be almost flexible such results survive several robustness checks and a three sector extension of the nk model these findings have implications for building nk models with durable and nondurable goods and for the conduct of monetary policy

housing finance and monetary policy we document three facts concerning how the structure of housing finance affects the monetary transmission mechanism first the characteristics of residential mortgage markets differ markedly across industrialized countries second the impact of monetary policy shocks to residential investment and house prices is significantly stronger in those countries with larger flexibility development of mortgage markets third the transmission to consumption is stronger only in those countries where mortgage equity release is common and mortgage contracts are predominantly of the variable rate type we then build a two sector dsge model with financial constraints to rationalize those facts

testing benefits transfer of forest recreation values over a twenty year time horizon we conduct a functional benefit transfer over 20 years of total willingness to pay based on carborne forest recreation in 52 forests using a mixed logit specification of a random utility model and geographic information systems to allow heterogeneous preferences across the population and for heterogeneity over space results show that preferences for some forest attributes such as species diversity and age as well as transport mode have changed significantly over the period updating the transfer model with present total demand for recreation improves the error margins by an average of 282 average errors of the best transfer model remain 25

do central banks react to house prices we estimate the federal reserve s the bank of england s and the bank of japan s responses to house prices we show that generalized method of moments estimates of a taylor rule augmented with house prices are biased and dispersed we then use full information methods and estimate the policy rule together with a var for the nonpolicy variables these estimates are also biased we propose an alternative approach and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model embedded with a monetary rule with a direct response to house prices we find that house prices played a separate role in the reaction functions of these central banks

annual fees and recreation choice models of recreation behavior have typically ignored the role of fixed annual fees such as the fee for a recreational license in determining choice and welfare we demonstrate how techniques from the literature on discrete continuous choice and two part tariffs can address a situation where fixed annual fees are essential to determining the choice of a recreation site we explore how accounting for value captured by fixed fees can influence the way resource changes are assessed

financing constraints and investment efficiency evidence from a panel of canadian forest firms this article examines the financial constraint of 18 listed canadian forest firms between 2000 and 2014 following the stochastic frontier approach empirical results support the observation that ca

labour use efficiency in swedish social insurance offices this paper considers the estimation of frontier production functions in panel data models it proposes a multi stage method to obtain estimates of 1 the parameters of a flexible input requirement function and 2 technical inefficiency decomposed into time invariant firm specific time varying and the residual components the proposed method is used to analyse labour use efficiency of swedish local social insurance offices on the basis of a large panel of observations during the time period 1974 84 empirical results show 1 substantial variations in labour use efficiency among these offices with the mean efficiencies declining over time 2 presence of economies of scale thereby meaning that most of the offices were of suboptimal size

estimation of technical inefficiency in panel data models with firm and time specific effects abstract this paper uses a panel data model and develops methods to estimate production function parameters and technical inefficiency the model distinguishes technical inefficiency from firm and time specific effects determinants of technical inefficiency is introduced by allowing its mean to be a function of exogenous variables both random and fixed effects treatment of firm and time specific effects are considered in estimation

modeling recreation demand in a poisson system of equations an analysis of the impact of international exchange rates we extend count data travel cost modeling by developing a utility theoretic system of semilogarithmic recreation demand equations the restrictions required to make the system utility theoretic are applied during estimation the model is applied to individual wilderness recreation trips in a system of four canadian wilderness parks the resulting demand system is used to examine the impacts of changing u s canadian currency exchange rates on participation and welfare of u s recreationists

market structure and the efficiency of european insurance companies a stochastic frontier analysis abstract this paper is motivated by the progressive liberalisation of the european insurance market in recent years it uses stochastic frontier analysis to estimate flexible fourier cost functions for european insurance companies separate frontiers are estimated for life non life and composite companies we adopt a maximum likelihood approach to estimation in which the variance of both one sided and two sided error terms is modelled jointly with the frontiers this approach allows us to simultaneously control for the impact of heteroskedasticity on the estimation of scale economies as well as estimating the effect of firm size and market structure on x inefficiency the study draws on standard poor s eurothesys data set of financial reports for the period 1995 to 2001 this provides technical and non technical accounts at year end for life non life and composite insurance businesses in 14 major european countries our estimates suggest that over this period most european insurers were operating under conditions of decreasing costs increasing returns to scale and that company size and domestic market share were significant factors determining x inefficiency larger firms and those with high market shares tend to have higher levels of cost inefficiency

credit frictions and the comovement between durable and non durable consumption frictions in lending between households have been proposed as a solution to the difficulties new keynesian models have in predicting a decline in both durable and non durable consumption following a monetary tightening by revisiting a standard new keynesian framework with collateral constraints it is shown that the presence of such credit frictions in fact makes it more difficult to generate the joint decline the intuitive reasons behind this result are provided which should be helpful in developing models that are more successful in generating a positive comovement between durables and non durables

no deep pockets some stylized empirical results on firms financial constraints this paper is a survey of recent empirical work on financial constraints faced by firms it is organized as a series of stylized results which mirror what is generally understood about the severity of financial constraints and the effects that they have upon firms the review of the literature shows that a financial constraints are a widespread key concern for firms hindering their ability to carry out their optimal investment and growth trajectories and b the severity of such constraints depends on institutional and firm specific characteristics as well as on the nature of investment projects

a structural equations approach to modeling consumptive recreation demand abstract in this analysis we develop a two equation structural model of a count travel cost model of recreational angling demand and angling success by modeling the two equations jointly we avoid the difficulties associated with the usual approach which estimates the demand for recreational fishing sites assuming the existence of an exogenous measure of fishing quality our analysis explicitly develops the joint log likelihood function that combines the two processes we estimate our model using full information maximum likelihood methods

corporate finance side of the q theory of investment abstract this paper presents a model of a firm under uncertainty in which the financial and investment decisions are simultaneously determined if profits are small relative to investment the firm finances a constant fraction of incremental investment by debt and the rest by retentions if profits are large relative to investment a constant fraction of marginal finance comes from debt and the rest from new shares in these two financing regimes a one to one relationship between optimal investment and q can be derived no such relation exists in the third and intermediate regime in which incremental investment is entirely debt financed

is housing collateral important to the business cycle evidence from china abstract this paper investigates whether housing collateral is important to the business cycle in china we develop two models one without housing collateral as benchmark and one variant allowing for it indirect inference procedure tests these two models compatibility with the data we find that the benchmark model passes the test while the collateral model is strongly rejected according to the benchmark model shocks from the housing market have limited impact on the chinese business cycle by contrast the exogenous spending shock from government and net exports the monetary policy shock and the goods sector cost productivity shock all in turn most likely connected to world business cycle shocks especially the global financial crisis are found to be the main drivers

identification of financial factors in economic fluctuations we estimate demand supply monetary investment and nancial shocks in a var identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions on us data we find that financial shocks are major drivers of fluctuations in output stock prices and investment but have a limited effect on inflation in a second step we disentangle shocks originating in the housing sector shocks originating in credit markets and uncertainty shocks in the extended set upfinancial shocks are even more important and a leading role is played by housing shocks that have large and persistent effects on output

valuing cultural world heritage sites an application of the travel cost method to mont saint michel abstractthis article using the zonal version of the travel cost method ztcm provides the first economic valuation of recreational trips to mont saint michel msm the msm was designated as united nations educational scientific and cultural organization world heritage site in 1979 and is the most visited coastal site in france the potential effects on consumer surplus cs estimates of some aspects of the ztcm are considered namely the treatment of the multiple purpose destination mp d trips the inclusion of the opportunity cost of time oct in the recreation demand model and the heterogeneity in the preferences the heterogeneity in the preferences is examined through a random parameters poisson model rppm the rppm generalizes the standard poisson model spm by allowing coefficients of explanatory variables to vary randomly across geographical units rather than being fixed our results show that 1 substantial cs values are associated with the msm 2 excluding ignoring mp d trips resul

a stochastic frontier analysis of financing constraints on investment is shown that investment under financing constraints can be modeled as a one sided deviation from a frictionless investment level and that effects of financing constraints can be identified and quantified by imposing a distributional assumption on the effects panel data on taiwanese manufacturing firms between 1989 and 1996 are used in the estimation it is found that 1 some of the sorting criteria used in the literature do not have significant and monotonic relationships with the degrees of financing constraint resulting in problematic sample separations and 2 the effects of financial liberalization in taiwan are such that the investment efficiency improved over time for a typical firm and the improvement was particularly large for smaller firms

on the measurement of tobin s q abstract we examine the methods commonly employed to estimate tobin s q ratios and find them to be flawed in design and arbitrary in implementation we propose an alternative procedure which is both simpler and more accurate the key to the procedure is an improved measure of fixed asset replacement costs through the proper identification of the vintages of fixed assets that are in place for a firm application of this procedure to a large sample of nonfinancial corporations indicates that existing methods generally produce downward biased measures of q and can result in errors in the ordering of firms by their q s

estimating social welfare using count data models an application to long run recreation demand under conditions of endogenous stratification and truncation this paper develops a negative binomial model of recreation demand that corrects for both truncation and endogenous stratification this approach recovers the demand associated with the general population not just the users of the site this model demonstrates the importance of the joint nature of the population s latent demand for trips and the consumer surplus associated with those trips the empirical results provide an estimate of the willingness to pay by washington state residents for hiking opportunities in the cascade mountain range these results are used to forecast total trips and willingness to pay over the next forty years copyright 1995 by mit press

exact consumer s surplus and deadweight loss consumer s surplus is a widely used tool in applied welfare economics both economic theorists and cost benefit analysis often use consumer s surplus despite its somewhat dubious reputation the basic idea is to evaluate the value to a consumer or his willingness to pay for a change in price of a good from say pricep to pricep because price changes affect consumer welfare an evaluation of this effect is often a key input to public policy decisions yet consumer s surplus is probably the most controversial of widely used economic concepts both paul samuelson and ian little conclude that the economics profession would be better off without it it is my feeling of the situation that substantial agreement exists on the correct quantities to be measured the amount the consumer would pay or would need to be paid to be just as well off after the price change as he was before the price change the quantities correspond to john hicks compensating variation measures an alternative measure which takes ex post price change utility as the basis of comparison is hicks equivalent variation the controversy arises in the measurement of these quantities the usual measurement procedure is to use the area to the left of the marshallian market demand curve between two price levels jules dupuit originated this measure of welfare change and alfred marshall and hicks derived appropriate conditions for its use the primary condition for the area to the left of the demand curve to correspond to the compensating variation is to have constant marginal utility of income marshall gave this condition and if it holds the same quantity will be derived as the area to the left of the compensated hicksian demand curve this area to the left of the compensated demand curve is exactly what the compensating variation and equivalent variation measure thus the constant marginal utility of income is a sufficient condition for marshallian consumer s surplus to be equal to hicks consumer s surplus in this case arnold harberger s plea to use the welfare triangle as one half times the product of the price change times the quantity change to measure deadweight loss corresponds to the correct theoretical amount of welfare change in a recent paper robert willig derives bounds for the percentage difference between the correct measure of either the compensating or equivalent variation and the marshallian measure derived form the market demand curve his bounds which depend on the income elasticity of demand for the single good in the region of price change being considered as well as the proportion of the consumer s income spent on the good demonstrate that the marshallian consumer s surplus is often a good approximation to hicks consumer s surplus the fact that the proportion of the consumer s income spent matters as well as the income elasticity was first pointed out by harold hotelling willig contends that the approximation error will be less than the errors involved in estimating the demand curve thus he hopes to remove the need for apology that applied economists often need to give to theorists who remark on the inappropriateness of using marshallian consumer s surplus to measure welfare change however in this paper i show that for the case primarily considered by willig of a single price change which is also the situation in which consumer s surplus is often used in applied work no approximation is necessary professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research associate national bureau of economic research i would like to thank peter diamond erwin diewert daniel mcfadden robert merton robert solow hal varian joel yellin and the referees for help and comments research support from the national science foundation is acknowledged the reason that we still have two rather than one of samuelson s six measures of consumer s surplus arises from an index number problem of the correct basis for the welfare comparison i will give both measures but plan to concentrate on the compensating variation

hedonic onsight cost model of recreation demand for many recreational activities onsite pecuniary costs can be a significant portion of the cost of a recreational trip onsite expenditures however often depend upon endogenous quality choices made by the household we formulate a recreation demand model that formally accounts for household selection of quality of onsite time household behavior is constrained by income prices and the onsite hedonic price schedule assuming complete optimization a reduced form marshallian demand curve for recreation trips still results and a specialized version of roy s identity provides a basis for welfare analysis instrumenting for endogenous quality choices does not improve demand estimation

willingness to pay for snowmobile recreation travel cost method models with and without post season resurvey of trip count annual willingness to pay wtp for snowmobile recreation in idaho is estimated using the travel cost method tcm on site snow conditions are important and erratic thus we collect two measures o

housing collateral and the monetary transmission mechanism in this paper we quantify the effects of the recent increase in the housing loan to value ratio ltv on the monetary transmission mechanism we set up a two sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with collateral constraints and production of goods and housing using bayesian methods we quantify the component of the monetary transmission mechanism that is generated by housing collateral we find that this component is substantial and strongly increasing in the ltv we conclude that in order to properly understand the monetary transmission mechanism we need to take into account the effects of housing related collateral constraints and their changing nature

the opportunity cost of travel time as a noisy wage fraction few issues are more important to welfare estimation with recreation demand models than the specification of the opportunity cost of travel time the two most common approaches to specifying this cost treat it as a fixed fraction of the recreationist s wage and either estimate the fraction done infrequently or assume it takes some value done commonly with references to results from the commute time literature used to justify the latter however these approaches lack firm conceptual rationales and the consequences of using them are not fully understood recognizing that information limitations often preclude more general approaches we use a joint recreation travel labor supply model to show that under relatively modest assumptions the opportunity cost of travel time can be expressed as a wage fraction with noise this formulation is straightforward to implement as part of random parameters based recreation demand models we then evaluate the welfare consequences of using the two approaches noted above which are special cases of the noisy wage fraction specification our results suggest that the more critical restriction to relax in opportunity cost of travel time specifications is the absence of noise rather than the specific level of the wage fraction

what floats your boat preference revelation from lotteries over complex goods abstract we examine a type of lottery used to distribute some publicly held resource access rights the lottery provides participants with the opportunity to choose among a set of simple gambles over multi attribute goods participant choices result in an endogenous distribution of success rates over gambles that reflects tradeoffs between the relative desirability of the available goods and the probability of winning when lottery winnings are multi attribute goods lottery outcomes provide sufficient information to estimate hedonic prices marginal utility and marginal rates of substitution among attributes we develop a model for characterizing preferences from this information set we apply our model to idaho s four rivers whitewater recreation lottery which allows applicants to apply for one permit among a large set of alternative river day combinations that provide varying river and weather characteristics this lottery structure shows promise as a foundation for economic experiments for preference revelation

house prices borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle i develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices credit constraints nominal loans and asset prices changes in asset prices modify agents borrowing capacity through collateral value changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation monetary policy shocks move asset and nominal prices in the same direction and are amplified and propagated over time the financial accelerator is not constant across shocks nominal debt stabilises supply shocks making the economy less volatile when the central bank controls the interest rate i discuss the role of equity debt indexation and household and firm leverage in the propagation mechanism finally i find that monetary policy should not target asset prices as a means of reducing output and inflation volatility

innovative performance effects of institutional quality an empirical investigation from the triad using data for a set of 823 r d intense manufacturing firms within the triad and the quality of government qog dataset over the 2002 2010 period this article investigates the effects of institut

threshold effects of financial status on the cost frontiers of financial institutions in nondynamic panels this article applies hansen s 1999 2000 threshold regression model to estimate translog cost frontiers in the hope of shedding light on the banking industry s production processes and the extent of its technical efficiency te the threshold technique allows for the existence of multiple technologies of production distinguished by an exogenous threshold variable strong evidence of multiple technologies is found in the industry irrespective of which financial indicator as constructed by factor analysis defines the threshold variable cost savings and scale economies among the various underlying technologies are compared herein we also highlight the differences between the threshold results and the conventional cost frontier

expectation driven business cycles with limited enforcement we explore shocks to expected future productivity in a model with limited enforcement of financial contracts a microfounded collateral constraint implies that good news about future productivity yield an increase in stock prices available credit and a general economic expansion

recreation nonparticipation as choice behavior rather than statistical outcome in recreation demand models nonparticipation is usually estimated as the probability mass on zero demand given a positive level of expected demand and a discrete distribution of demand outcomes researchers have attempted to improve predictions of nonparticipation by modifying the parameters of the demand distribution this study departs from previous approaches by explicitly incorporating nonparticipation into the behavioral model the choice to participate is described by a distribution of preferences combined with a choke price on individual demands to distinguish participants from nonparticipants the model is found to accurately predict nonparticipation and the size of the user group copyright 2008 oxford university press

financial frictions investment and tobin s q we develop a model of investment with financial constraints and use it to investigate the relation between investment and tobin s a firm is financed partly by insiders who control its assets and partly by outside investors when their wealth is scarce insiders earn a rate of return higher than the market rate of return i e they receive a quasi rent on invested capital this rent is priced into the value of the firm so tobin s is driven by two forces changes in the value of invested capital and changes in the value of the insiders future rents per unit of capital this weakens the correlation between and investment relative to the frictionless benchmark we present a calibrated version of the model which due to this effect generates realistic correlations between investment a nd cashflow

time is money improved valuation of time and transportation costs the proper valuation of time isimportant for estimating the demand for severaleconomic goods this paper explores the propervaluation of time when estimating recreationaldemand where time costs represent asubstantial portion of the purchase price toestimate demand this paper uses a travel costframework to analyze actual behavior revealedpreference data and hypothetical behavior stated preference data which is induced byhypothetical increases in access fees traveltime and travel distance by comparing theresponses to these three contingencies theanalysis adjusts and improves the valuation oftime costs as evidence of this improvement this analysis demonstrates a great increase inthe consistency between the revealed and stateddata similarly this paper improves thevaluation of transportation related costs

changing credit limits changing business cycles abstract in the last half century capital markets across the industrialized world have undergone massive deregulation involving large increases in the loan to value ltv ratios of households and firms we study the business cycle implications of this phenomenon in an estimated dynamic general equilibrium model with multiple credit constrained agents a progressive relaxation of credit constraints initially leads to both higher macroeconomic volatility and stronger comovement between debt and real activity this pattern reverses at ltv ratios not far from those currently observed in many advanced economies due to credit constraints becoming non binding more often the non monotonic relationship between credit market conditions and macroeconomic fluctuations carries important lessons for regulatory and macroprudential policymakers while reducing the average ltv ratio may unintentionally increase macroeconomic volatility a countercyclical ltv ratio proves to be successful in dampening business cycle fluctuations and most importantly avoiding dramatic output drops

estimation and welfare calculations in a generalized corner solution model with an application to recreation demand the kuhn tucker model of wales and woodland 1983 provides a utility theoretic framework for estimating preferences over commodities for which individuals choose not to consume one or more of the goods due to the complexity of the model however there have been few applications in the literature and little attention has been paid to the problems of welfare analysis within the kuhn tucker framework this paper provides an application of the model to the problem of recreation demand in addition we develop and apply a methodology for estimating compensating variation relying on monte carlo integration to derive expected welfare changes

adopt a hypothetical pup a count data approach to the valuation of wildlife the willingness to pay wtp for a coyote conservation program is estimated using a novel payment vehicle based on how many problem coyotes respondents would be willing to sponsor for a year this hypothetical scenario mimics an increasingly popular type of actual market data from a phone survey conducted in prince edward island are analyzed using count data models that consider different processes explaining zero responses and the level of positive responses this is particularly important in the case of coyotes often regarded as an economic bad estimates of wtp per coyote per year around 18 22 and annual wtp per contributor of about 46 57 are obtained

the potential estimation and factor analysis of china s energy conservation on thermal power industry new huadu business school research fund national social science foundation of china 12zd059 ministry of education 10gbj013

a stochastic frontier approach to modelling financial constraints in firms an application to india we propose the use of stochastic frontier approach to modelling financial constraints of firms the main advantage of the stochastic frontier approach over the stylised approaches that use pooled ols or fixed effects panel regression models is that we can not only decide whether or not the average firm is financially constrained but also estimate a measure of the degree of the constraint for each firm and for each time period and also the marginal impact of firm characteristics on this measure we then apply the stochastic frontier approach to a panel of indian manufacturing firms for the 1997 2006 period in our application we highlight and discuss the aforementioned advantages while also demonstrating that the stochastic frontier approach generates regression estimates that are consistent with the stylised intuition found in the literature on financial constraint and the wider literature on the indian credit capital market

modeling hunting demand in the presence of a bag limit with tests of alternative specifications abstract bag limits complicate the measurement of consumer surplus from hunting because the point at which hunters cease taking trips is not necessarily the point at which they are unwilling to pay for additional hunting trips we develop and apply an econometric model which accounts for bag limits to data of deer hunting in california and we employ several alternative models that do not account for the bag limit we conduct non nested testing of the models and estimate welfare measures at existing conditions and after a quality improvement confidence intervals are provided for the welfare measurements

valuing water level changes in reservoirs using two stated preference approaches an exploration of validity the combination of travel cost tcm and contingent behaviour cb methods is a relatively new research avenue in the recreational valuation community contrary to simple tcm applications tcm cb facilitates the ex ante valuation of marginal welfare effects resulting from environmental quality or quantity changes similar to the contingent valuation method cv even though tcm cb is highly policy relevant i e to inform changes in management regimes at recreational sites the validity of estimates has hardly received any attention and little is known about the performance of tcm cb compared to cv in this paper tcm cb and cv are explored with respect to several validity tests in a case study on the recreational effects of water level changes in a reservoir overall the findings reveal that tcm cb and cv perform equally well in terms of theoretical validity but that the marginal recreational value varies significantly between the two methods we also observe that both methods face similar internal difficulties with respect to the stability of values when the order of a set of valuation questions is changed

tobin s q investment and the endogenous adjustment of financial structure abstract should q theory be modified to take account of financial structure this paper analyzes a general equilibrium q model where financial structure affects firm value agency costs and taxes combine to yield an interior solution for the endogenous debt equity ratio although q is still a sufficient statistic for investment the endogenous adjustment of financial structure alters the relation between the interest rate and investment in this model an increase in the corporate tax rate could either raise or lower the steady state capital stock furthermore both q and investment could jump in opposite directions to that of their steady state values

the role of sticky prices in an open economy dsge model a bayesian investigation in this paper we use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model for an open economy to examine the role of sticky prices in explaining the joint behaviour of inflation and a fairly large set of macroeconomic variables we find that price stickiness is an important feature for firms active in the domestic export and import sectors even though the model embodies variable capital utilisation a working capital channel and a time varying inflation target we also document that price stickiness in all sectors is important even if the markup shocks are allowed to be autocorrelated although the implied average contract duration falls substantially under this assumption jel e40 e50 c11

production frontiers and panel data an application to u s class 1 railroads in this article the appropriateness of inefficiency measures obtained directly from the production function as in schmidt and sickles 1984 is examined relative to those provided by a the cost function aproach b klein s approach and c the iterative sur technique efficiency rankings yielded by different methods are also compared and tested

on the estimation of technical and allocative inefficiency using stochastic frontier functions the case of u s class 1 railroads in this paper the author considers specification and estimation of technical and allocative inefficiency in a cost minimizing framework using panel data some distinguishing features of the model are 1 the functional form of the production technology is flexible enough to allow elasticity to vary across firms 2 allocative inefficiency coming from managerial errors ou t of inertia ignorance etc are separated from random errors in optimization 3 the panel nature of the data allows the estimation of input and firm specific allocative inefficiency together with technical inefficiency and 4 subdivision of the sample period allows one to make efficiency comparisons of each firm over the subperiods and to check the stability of the parameter estimates copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

alternative models of recreational off highway vehicle site demand a controversial recreation activity is off highway vehicle use off highway vehicle use is controversial because it is incompatible with most other activities and is extremely hard on natural eco systems this study estimates utility theoretic incomplete demand systems for four off highway vehicle sites since two sets of restrictions are equally consistent with utility theory both are imposed and the best fitting restrictions are identified using voung s non nested testing scheme the demand system is modeled using both poisson and negative binomial ii distributions data are provided by a survey conducted at four recreational off highway vehicle ohv sites in western north carolina

business cycle implications of mortgage spreads abstract how do aggregate quantities at the business cycle frequency respond to shocks to the spread between residential mortgage rates and government bonds using a structural var approach we find that mortgage spread shocks impact the real economy by both economically and statistically significant magnitudes a 100 basis point decline in the spread causes a peak increase in consumption residential investment and gdp by 1 6 percent 6 2 percent and 1 9 percent respectively presumably these effects are magnified when the policy rate is held fixed as was the case in the us during the recent implementation of unconventional monetary policy

on the aggregate value of recreational activities a nested price index approach using poisson demand systems an important consideration in the development ofregulations and policies that administer naturalresources in an area is the value of the non marketactivities supported by those lands little attentionhas been paid to the aggregate value of largegeographic areas this analysis builds autility theoretic price index and utilizes this indexto estimate an aggregate poisson demand to valuebackcountry recreational hiking opportunities innorthern california

valuing resource access with seminonparametric techniques an application to clear lake the focus of this investigation is three fold first seminonparametric techniques are considered in order to avoid the pitfall of imparting bias on value estimates second the efficacy of seminonparametric techniques are explored in an empirical setting by valuing recreational access at clear lake iowa finally a technique from eastwood and gallant 1991 is adapted and applied to the count data model

introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model the current nancial crisis has made it abundantly clear that business cycle modeling no longer can abstract from nancial factors it is also becoming increasingly clear that the stylized modeling of labor markets without explicit unemployment that is the current standard approach has its limitations some questions which the dominating extant business cycle models are mute on but that we would like to answer are how important are nancial and labor market frictions for the business cycle dynamics of a

divestment of the english forestry estate an economically sound choice abstract this paper evaluates if the proposed divestment of the english forestry commission estate in 2010 was economically rational the analysis is composed of two parts first an amenity value threshold for continued public access to the estate was estimated based on a stated value of the estate i e 700 million and assuming a discount rate of 3 5 the estate should never have been considered for sale however assuming a discount rate of 5 then the associated critical amenity value was estimated to be approximately 5 million second travel cost methods were employed to value public access to the forest of dean as a proxy for the estate an on site survey was conducted that yielded estimates of consumer surplus that exceed the critical amenity value of the estate by two orders of magnitude even when we employ a discount rate above that typically used in public policy decision making therefore we conclude that the policy to divest the estate for 700 million was not a good deal and as such the resulting policy reversal was an economically sensible decision

biases in frontier estimation due to heteroscedasticity abstract this paper investigates the effects of heteroscedasticity on the parameters in frontier regression models a monte carlo experiment is employed to determine that heteroscedasticity leads to overestimation of the intercept and underestimation of the slope coefficients

capital accumulation in a politically unstable region we investigate the different channels by which political instability impacts capital accumulation using a unique data of firms from the middle east and north africa mena a region that has long suffered from political unrest and a novel empirical method we find that political stability shapes firm investment mainly via its influence on credit conditions political instability tightens borrowing constraints and impedes capital accumulation thereby adversely affecting economic growth

evidence on the role of cash flow for investment abstract recent work in macroeconomics argues that imperfections in capital markets may lead to business cycle fluctuations by propagating relatively modest shocks evidence for such a mechanism also known as the financial accelerator consists largely of firm level studies showing that cash flow is an important predictor of investment but this evidence is often viewed with skepticism because cash flow is also a good indicator of investment opportunities in this paper we develop a framework for estimating the extent to which the predictive power of cash flow can be attributed to its role as a fundamental versus its role in alleviating credit frictions for firms with access to commercial paper and bond markets we find that the perfect capital markets model of investment can fully account for the role of cash flow for firms with only limited access to capital markets as indicated by lack of participation in public debt markets however investment appears to be excessively sensitive to fluctuations in cash flow these results thus clarify the role of cash flow in investment equations and provide support for the existence of a financial accelerator

nonparametric estimation of the determinants of inefficiency in the presence of firm heterogeneity abstract we consider the application of the profile least squares method to estimate the impact of the determinants of inefficiency in the presence of panel data and unobserved individual specific heterogeneity for the stochastic frontier model this method has the advantage over previous approaches in that the effect of the determinants of inefficiency on output can be recovered nonparametrically in the presence of heterogeneity at the firm level we describe the estimator and offer a small set of monte carlo exercises that showcases the value of the method for the stochastic frontier model application of the method to assess insights generated compared to a pooled cross section approach using data from the taiwan banking system is also provided

a random parameter model with onsite sampling for recreation site choice an application to southern california shoreline sportfishing estimation of consistent parameter estimates for recreational demand models faces challenges arising from the choice based nature of the data collected primarily for resource management purposes as an alternative to randomized respondent based sampling choice based onsite sampling can provide information on actual choices made by a subset of the population where participation has a low incidence while the literature has shown that under specific restrictions the estimation of choice models from onsite sampling data yields unbiased fixed parameter estimates for the conditional logit model this result does not carry over to estimation of the random parameter logit model we propose an estimator for the unbiased estimation of the random parameter model using choice based data our estimator uses weights based on information about the level of sampling effort an empirical application of the standard and weighted discrete choice rum models to onsite sample data on recreational fishing illustrates the advantages of the proposed estimator the estimation results indicate the compensating variation associated with an decrease or increase of 50 in expected catch rates for a recreational shoreline sportfishing trip to a man made structure in southern california is 2 80 or 3 54 per trip respectively

addressing aggregation bias in zonal recreation models abstract models of recreation demand are often based on zonal data results from such models are susceptible to aggregation bias we propose a zonal model of recreation that captures some of the underlying heterogeneity of individual visitors by incorporating distributional information on per capita income from census sources into the aggregate demand function this adjustment eliminates the unrealistic constraint of constant income across zonal residents and thus reduces the risk of aggregation bias in estimated parameters in addition the corrected aggregate specification reinstates the applicability of generalized maximum likelihood methods and increases model efficiency

microfoundations of macroeconomic price adjustment survey evidence from swedish firms this paper presents the results of a survey on price setting behavior conducted on a large random sample of swedish firms the median firm adjusts the price once a year state and time dependent price setting are about equally important the four highest ranked explanations for price rigidity in this study implicit contracts sluggish costs explicit contracts and the kinked demand curve have close correspondents among the top five places in two similar large scale surveys carried out in the uk and the u s the results point to the importance of the long term relations with customers for the rigidity of prices the estimated share of sales that go to regular customers is more than 80

estimation of a doubly heteroscedastic stochastic frontier cost function this article extends the results obtained by caudill ford and cropper in estimating and testing stochastic frontier cost functions in the presence of heteroscedastic inefficiency using cross section data it suggests the estimation of the model under the assumption of heteroscedasticity in both random terms this avoids any possible misspecification bias and the use of incorrect tests the same data as used by caudill et al supports the new specification moreover we find that firm specific inefficiency measures are extremely sensitive to the proposed correction for heteroscedasticity

the measurement and sources of technical inefficiency in the indonesian weaving industry production function models are estimated with a time series of cross section data on indonesian weaving establishments the sources of technical inefficiency are investigated three firm attributes are identified as being potentially related to firm efhciency tbey are firm ownership age and size the importance of these attributes as sources of inefficiency in the indonesian weaving industry is investigated and the implications of the find ings discussed

economic efficiency and frontier techniques abstract most of the literature related to the measurement of economic efficiency has based its analysis either on parametric or on non parametric frontier methods the choice of estimation method has been an issue of debate with some researchers preferring the parametric and others the non parametric approach the aim of this paper is to provide a critical and detailed review of both core frontier methods in our opinion no approach is strictly preferable to any other moreover a careful consideration of their main advantages and disadvantages of the data set utilized and of the intrinsic characteristics of the framework under analysis will help us in the correct implementation of these techniques recent developments in frontier techniques and economic efficiency measurement such as bayesian techniques bootstrapping duality theory and the analysis of sampling asymptotic properties are also considered in this paper

value of recreational fishing in the brazilian pantanal a travel cost analysis using count data models abstract recreational fishing value of the brazilian pantanal is measured using travel cost method tcm we compare non linear poisson and negative binomial count data models to estimate recreational fishing trip demands the count data and truncated models are used primarily to account for non negative integer and truncation properties of recreational fishing trips as suggested by the recreation valuation literature the results reveal that non linear and truncated count data models perform relatively well in our study the economic values of recreational fishing in terms of consumer surplus cs are derived using non linear and truncated models we estimate the cs values from 540 54 to 869 57 per trip resulting in the total social welfare estimate range from 35 to 56 million the study demonstrates a relatively high value of recreational fishing in the pantanal in comparison to similar studies conducted in other parts of the world the findings of this study would be important for resource management decisions in the pantanal and could serve as a reference in valuing similar resources in other ecosystems around the world

using spatial microsimulation to account for demographic and spatial factors in environmental benefit transfer abstract this paper presents a simulation based modelling approach for estimating total visitor numbers and amenity values for prospective non priced open access outdoor recreation sites to begin the geographic extent of the market for recreation at a policy site is estimated using data from a similar study site the population residing within this geographic area is simulated using a spatial microsimulation model and gis techniques and an individual level visitor arrival function is then transferred across this simulated population this allows the latent demand for visits to the policy site by each simulated individual to be predicted and summed providing an estimate of the total potential demand for recreation at the site combining this with an economic value measure of a visit provides an estimate of the potential amenity value of the policy site the approach is applied to moyode wood a small scale forest in the west of ireland and estimates the potential total economic value of recreation at 0 4 million for the site the research represents the first time that spatial microsimulation has been used in environmental benefit transfer and shows how it can be used to control for differences in demographic and spatial factors between study and policy sites it also demonstrates how individual level single site travel cost models estimated using on site survey data can be used to predict demand at alternative policy sites

why does liquidity matter in investment equations that liquidity variables affect investment spending is widely accepted despite important recent empirical work questions remain concerning the interpretation of liquidity variables in investment equations and the sources and economic importance of finance constraints these questions are addressed by estimating a variety of econometric models that exploit distinctive canadian institutional features to identify firms that face relatively severe information problems the initial econometric evidence confirms the existence of finance constraints and identifies their source as the problems faced by firms in credibly communicating private information to outsiders this conclusion is robust to biases from the capitalization of finance constraints into asset prices scale economies or imperfect competition which are accounted for directly in the econometric specifications copyright 1995 by ohio state university press