co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth in china a panel data analysis this paper examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption and real economic output using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modeling techniques based on the panel data for 28 provinces in china over the period 1995 2007 our empirical results show that co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth have appeared to be cointegrated moreover there exists bidirectional causality between co2 emissions and energy consumption and also between energy consumption and economic growth it has also been found that energy consumption and economic growth are the long run causes for co2 emissions and co2 emissions and economic growth are the long run causes for energy consumption the results indicate that china s co2 emissions will not decrease in a long period of time and reducing co2 emissions may handicap china s economic growth to some degree some policy implications of the empirical results have finally been proposed

pillage and property this paper introduces a class of coalitional games called pillage games as a model of hobbesian anarchy any coalition can pillage costlessly and with certainty any less powerful coalition power is endogenous so a pillage game does not have a characteristic function but pillage provides a domination concept that defines a stable set which represents an endogenous balance of power every stable set contains only finitely many allocations and can be represented as a farsighted core additional results are obtained for particular games including the game in which the power of each coalition is determined by its total wealth

the economics of violence in natural states violence is key to understanding human interaction and societal development the natural state of societal organization is that a subset of the population capable of mustering organized large scale violence forms an elite coalition that restrains both violence and coercive appropriation we highlight key mechanisms underlying such natural states our results show that natural states either have a large elite coalition and a high tax rate or a weak elite and a high level of appropriation by a large group of violence specialists outside the elite termed warlords when output elasticity of effort is high it induces elite members to limit their tax rate which in turn promotes warlordism only when the elite coalition is small but still able to control a sizeable share of production as a result of its cooperative quality and a low decisiveness of conflict between elite and warlords do we find comparatively high levels of production and producer welfare our results imply that almost all natural states experience continuous coercion exercised by elite members and violence between elite coalitions and warlords we show that this is not a temporary out of equilibrium situation but a permanent phenomenon as can most conspicuously be observed in parts of sub saharan africa our model thus illustrates the rigidity of natural states

natural resources curse or blessing are natural resources a curse or a blessing the empirical evidence suggests that either outcome is possible this paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources these include that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate deindustrialization and bad growth prospects and that these adverse effects are more severe in volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law corruption presidential democracies and underdeveloped financial systems another hypothesis is that a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing and civil conflict especially if institutions are bad induces corruption especially in nondemocratic countries and keeps in place bad policies finally resource rich developing economies seem unable to successfully convert their depleting exhaustible resources into other productive assets the survey also offers some welfare based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies

determinants of the equilibrium real exchange rate n b professor neary was based at university college dublin and queen s university ontario canada when this article was first published the full text of this article is not available in ora at this time citation neary j p 1988 determinants of the equilibrium real exchange rate american economic review 78 1 210 215

the environmental consequences of globalization a country specific time series analysis abstract the dynamic relationships among trade income and the environment for developed and developing countries are examined using a cointegration analysis results suggest that trade and income growth tend to increase environmental quality in developed countries whereas they have detrimental effects on environmental quality in most developing countries it is also found that for developed countries the causal relationship appears to run from trade and income to the environment a change in trade and income growth causes a consequent change in environmental quality for most developing countries on the other hand the causality is found to run from the environment to trade and income however the opposite causal relationship holds for china

environmental kuznets curve in romania and the role of energy consumption abstract the aim of present study is to probe the dynamic relationship between economic growth energy consumption and co 2 emissions for period of 1980 2010 in case of romania in doing so ardl bounds testing approach is applied to investigate the long run cointegration between these variables our results confirm long run relationship between economic growth energy consumption and energy pollutants the empirical evidence reveals that environmental kuznets curve ekc is found both in long and short runs in romania further energy consumption is major contributor to energy pollutants democratic regime shows her significant contribution to decline co 2 emissions through effective implementation of economic policies and financial development improves environment i e reduces co 2 emissions by redirecting the resources to environment friendly projects

does trade liberalization increase national energy use abstract this paper utilises the theoretical principles of antweiler et al antweiler w b r copeland and m s taylor 2001 is free trade good for the environment american economic review 91 4 pp 877 908 to estimate empirically the linkages between trade liberalization and energy use focusing on scale technique and composition effects results suggest that trade will increase energy use for the mean country in the sample

endogenous insecurity and economic development abstract we explore the implications of endogenous credit market imperfections for the endogenous relationship between investment insecurity and the process of economic development in the initial stages of development the fraction of agents engaged in nonproductive diversionary activities e g rent seeking grows as the opportunities to gain from diversionary activities expand in later stages however diversion falls as capital market imperfections are overcome and productive activities become more secure and more profitable we detail the forces that determine whether the insecurity generated by an economy s early development will choke off the growth process we also compare the cost effectiveness of alternative policies designed to prevent diversion

carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth panel data evidence from developing countries in this paper we test the environment kuznet s curve ekc hypothesis for 43 developing countries we suggest examining the ekc hypothesis based on the short and long run income elasticities that is if the long run income elasticity is smaller than the short run income elasticity then it is evident that a country has reduced carbon dioxide emissions as its income has increased our empirical analysis based on individual countries suggests that jordan iraq kuwait yemen qatar the uae argentina mexico venezuela algeria kenya nigeria congo ghana and south africa approximately 35 per cent of the sample carbon dioxide emissions have fallen over the long run that is as these economies have grown emissions have fallen since the long run income elasticity is smaller than the short run elasticity we also examine the ekc hypothesis for panels of countries constructed on the basis of regional location using the panel cointegration and the panel long run estimation techniques we find that only for the middle eastern and south asian panels the income elasticity in the long run is smaller than the short run implying that carbon dioxide emission has fallen with a rise in income

absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange dutch disease dynamics abstract the permanent income rule is seldom the optimal response to a windfall of foreign exchange such as that from a resource discovery absorptive capacity constraints require domestic investment and investment in structures requires non traded inputs the supply of which is constrained by the initial capital stock this particularly when combined with intra sectoral capital immobility delays adjustment and creates short run dutch disease symptoms as the real exchange rate sharply appreciates and overshoots its long run value optimal revenue management requires investing in the domestic non traded goods sector and a slow build up of consumption accumulation of foreign assets adjusts to accommodate the time paths of domestic consumption and investment

vulnerable trade the dark side of an edgeworth box abstract we examine incentives to seize and defend goods offered for trade in an edgeworth box economy appropriation possibilities generate equilibrium of coerced redistribution and voluntary trade in a reduced box potential mutual gains remain untaken because the prospect of piracy creates a price wedge wherein the effective relative price is lowered for the exporter and raised for the importer as the vulnerability of one or both goods increases the price wedge widens causing trade to diminish if vulnerability becomes sufficiently high then equilibrium with trade ceases to exist in the edgeworth box economy

climate trade and water a grand coalition the paper argues first that the climate trade and water communities should leave aside their prejudices and it provides clear evidence that the three communities confront the same vested interests when trying to solve their common problem of free riding then it argues that such strong similarities speak in favour of sister world regimes in these three domains these sister regimes should first share the key principles of non discrimination national treatment and most favored nation embodied in the wto second by contrast the climate and water communities should review the other wto rules in order to adapt them to their specific demands when needed interestingly when doing so these two communities may provide much needed inspiration for improving some rules of the current trade regime finally the climate and water regimes may also adopt provisions on pricing that are not needed by the trade regime which deals mostly with well functioning markets

does inequality drive the dutch disease theory and evidence in this paper we show that the dutch disease can arise solely from inequality in the distribution of natural resource rents given two otherwise identical countries that differ only in the ownership shares of the natural resource rents the country with the less equal distribution will have less production of manufacturing goods and less development of learning by doing in this sector as opposed to conventional models where income distribution has no effect on economic outcomes an unequal distribution of the resource wealth can generate the dutch disease dynamics even in countries with an initial comparative advantage in manufacturing we also provide a range of empirical tests of our model including both difference and system gmm estimators in a dynamic panel to disentangle the effects of inequality and institutional quality we purge our inequality measure of any linear or higher order correlations with institutional quality and repeat our system and difference gmm estimations our empirical analysis supports the hypothesis that inequality indeed plays a significant role in whether being resource rich is a blessing or a curse for a country the more unequal is the distribution of natural resource rents the stronger is the disease

natural resource booms and inequality theory and evidence we develop a theory in the context of a two sector growth model in which learning by doing drives growth to explain the time path of income inequality following natural resource booms in resource rich countries under the condition of a relatively unskilled labor intensive non traded sector inequality falls immediately after a boom and then increases steadily over time until the initial impact of the boom disappears using data for 90 countries between 1965 and 1999 we find evidence in support of the theory especially for oil and mineral booms we also find that uncertainty about future commodity prices increases long run inequality

does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters abstract recent empirical literature has found a negative relationship between income per capita and measures of risk from natural disaster supportive of logic that higher incomes allow countries to mitigate disaster risk we argue that behavioral changes at the micro level in response to increasing income such as location choice and extent of costly abatement activity may lead to a non linear relationship between aggregate incomes and disaster damages where the risks increase with income before they decrease in a country year panel data set we show that disaster risk associated with flooding landslides and windstorms increases with income up to gdp per capita levels of 5044 3360 and 4688 per year respectively and decrease thereafter such non linear impacts are absent for other disaster types such as extreme temperature events and earthquakes where the links between human behavioral choices and exposure to risk are not as strong from a policy perspective this suggests that for the least developed countries the dual goals of disaster risk prevention and economic development cannot be assumed to be complementary for all forms of natural disaster in addition to allocating resources to manage disaster risk the poorest nations may have to be more proactive in enacting policies that alter the behavioral choices of citizens that impact a country s exposure to natural disaster risk

a model of institutional formation within a rent seeking environment abstract this paper presents a game theoretic model in which some fraction of output is appropriated from entrepreneurs entrepreneurs are able to form a league to prevent this appropriation but this might not be individually rational because of either the free rider problem or coordination failure the model also shows that poorer countries are less able to form this league and so might not be able to develop institutions establishing property rights

the distribution of income in a despotic society a distribution of income between rulers and subjects can be derived as an equilibrium of violence rather than from considerations of marginal products of owned factors of production society is organized in ranks and the occupants of each rank are provided with incomes just sufficient that obedience is preferable to rebellion to incorporate such considerations into a model it is necessary to recognize phenomena that are normally excluded from economic analysis combat the mortality rate from natural causes and from violence as a component of the utility function and a rudimentary technology of control

multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption exports and gdp evidence from a panel of middle eastern countries this paper examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption exports and gross domestic product gdp for a panel of middle eastern countries we find that for the panel as a whole there are statistically significant feedback effects between these variables a 1 per cent increase in electricity consumption increases gdp by 0 04 per cent a 1 per cent increase in exports increases gdp by 0 17 per cent and a 1 per cent increase in gdp generates a 0 95 per cent increase in electricity consumption the policy implications are that for the panel as a whole these countries should invest in electricity infrastructure and step up electricity conservation policies to avoid a reduction in electricity consumption adversely affecting economic growth further policy implications are that for the panel as a whole promoting exports particularly non oil exports is a means to promote economic growth and that expansion of exports can be realized without having adverse effects on energy conservation policies

a general equilibrium model of two group conflict with endogenous intra group sharing rules this paper explores the interactions among intra group sharing rules the competition between two groups over the common pool of output and the allocation of resources between productive and appropriate activities in the interior solution the use of egalitarian method for the distribution of group income among members plays no distributional role but only affects the allocation of resources it releases resources into the productive sector from the group that adopts the egalitarian rule by making the internal conflict among the members less intense the sequential choice of intra group sharing rules and resource allocations produce the adoption of fully egalitarian intra group sharing rules in both groups these rules minimize the amount of resources allocated to appropriate activities and maximize the welfare level of all individuals in the economy this result suggests that inter group competition with the use of egalitarian principle in the distribution of group income among group members which is not available to the hobbesian state of nature is one of the cheaper social devices in restraining individuals from engaging in costly appropriative activities

co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth in turkey abstract this paper examines the long run and causal relationship issues between economic growth carbon emissions energy consumption and employment ratio in turkey by using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration empirical results for turkey over the period 1968 2005 suggest an evidence of a long run relationship between the variables at 5 significance level in turkey the estimated income elasticity of carbon emissions per capita is 0 606 and the income elasticity of energy consumption per capita is 1 375 results for the existence and direction of granger causality show that neither carbon emissions per capita nor energy consumption per capita cause real gdp per capita but employment ratio causes real gdp per capita in the short run in addition ekc hypothesis at causal framework by using a linear logarithmic model is not valid in turkish case the overall results indicates that energy conservation policies such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of turkey

does trade openness improve environmental quality the literature on trade openness economic development and the environment is largely inconclusive about the environmental consequences of trade this study treats trade and income as endogenous and estimates the overall impact of trade openness on environmental quality using the instrumental variables technique we find that whether or not trade has a beneficial effect on the environment varies depending on the pollutant and the country trade is found to benefit the environment in oecd countries it has detrimental effects however on sulfur dioxide so2 and carbon dioxide co2 emissions in non oecd countries although it does lower biochemical oxygen demand bod emissions in these countries we also find the impact is large in the long term after the dynamic adjustment process although it is small in the short term

trade openness carbon emissions nexus the importance of turning points of trade openness for country panels abstract this paper explores the relationship between trade openness and co 2 emissions by incorporating economic growth as an additional and potential determinant of this relationship for three groups of 105 high middle and low income countries we apply the pedroni 1999 and westerlund 2007 panel cointegration tests and find that the three variables are cointegrated in the long run trade openness impedes environmental quality for the global high income middle and low income panels but the impact varies in these diverse groups of countries the panel vecm causality results highlight a feedback effect between trade openness and carbon emissions at the global level and the middle income countries but trade openness granger causes co 2 emissions for the high income and low income countries policy implications are also provided

polarization politics and property rights links between inequality and growth most efforts to trace the effects of income inequality on growth have focused on redistribution however empirical investigation has not substantiated either the positive association of income inequality with redistribution or the negative association of redistribution with economic growth the authors analyze the effects of inequality in the broader context of social polarization they argue that social polarization whether rooted in income inequality or in ethnic tension makes large changes in current policies including those guaranteeing the security of contract and property rights more likely under a wide range of institutional arrangements the resulting uncertainties in the policy and contractual environment hinder growth they find strong empirical support for both parts of this argument the policy implications of their argument are quite distinct from those of arguments that inequality reduces growth by increasing pressures for redistribution if redistributive policies per se were to blame for the low growth resulting from inequality governments that seek to mitigate income inequality must inevitably confront a tradeoff between equity and growth if on the other hand the insecurity of property rights slows growth in unequal or otherwise polarized societies governments that commit over the long run to particular redistributive policies incur less risk of slowing economic growth fiscal redistribution that reduces inequality may actually increase growth by reducing the risks of political uncertainty

commodity prices and growth an empirical investigation whereas empirical evidence on the effect of higher commodity prices on the long run growth of commodity exporters is ambiguous time series analyses using vector autoregressive var models have found that commodity booms raise income in the short run in this paper we adopt panel error correction methodology to analyze global data for 1963 to 2008 to disentangle the short and long run effects of international commodity prices on output per capita our results show that commodity booms have unconditional positive short term effects on output but non agricultural booms in countries with poor governance have adverse long term effects which dominate the short run gains our findings have important implications for non agricultural commodity exporters with poor governance especially in light of the recent wave of resource discoveries in low income countries

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

environmental kuznets curve for carbon emissions in pakistan an empirical investigation this study investigates the relationship between carbon emissions income energy consumption and foreign trade in pakistan for the period 1972 2008 by employing the johansen method of cointegration the study finds that there is a quadratic long run relationship between carbon emissions and income confirming the existence of environmental kuznets curve for pakistan moreover both energy consumption and foreign trade are found to have positive effects on emissions the short run results have however denied the existence of the environmental kuznets curve the short run results are unique to the existing literature in the sense that none of the long run determinants of emissions is significant the contradictory results of short and long run give policy makers the opportunity to formulate different types of growth policies for the two terms taking environmental issues into consideration in addition the uni directional causality from growth to energy consumption suggests that the policy makers should not only focus on forecasting future demand for energy with different growth scenarios but also on obtaining the least cost energy furthermore the absence of causality from emissions to growth suggests that pakistan can curb its carbon emissions without disturbing its economic growth

trade the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental kuznets curve examining the linkages abstract this paper examines the extent to which the ekc inverted u relationship can be explained by trade and specifically the migration or displacement of dirty industries from the developed regions to the developing regions the pollution haven hypothesis phh using detailed data on north south trade flows for pollution intensive products the evidence for the phh is assessed emissions of 10 air and water pollutants are then estimated controlling for trade openness structural change and dirty north south trade flows evidence of pollution haven effects is found although such effects do not appear to be widespread and appear to be relatively small compared to the roles played other explanatory variables

economic growth trade and energy implications for the environmental kuznets curve abstract the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis asserts that pollution follows an inverted u path with respect to economic growth the ekc has been explained in terms of structural changes in the composition of economic output and increased environmental regulation at higher income levels while some authors have incorporated the impact of trade policy orientation on the ekc the impact of the actual movement between countries of goods that embody pollution has not been considered this paper attempts to econometrically quantify the effect using pooled cross country and time series data the ekc hypothesis is examined with respect to commercial energy consumption the source of many serious environmental problems it was found that while both industrializing and industrialized countries have added to their energy requirements by exporting manufactured goods the growth has been substantially higher in the former at the same time industrialized countries have been able to reduce their energy requirements by importing manufactured goods exports of manufactured goods by industrialized countries has thus been an important factor in generating the upward sloping portion of the ekc and imports by industrialized countries have contributed to the downward slope

natural resources education and economic development economic growth since 1965 has varied inversely with the share of natural capital in national wealth across countries four main channels of transmission from abundant natural resources to stunted economic development are discussed a the dutch disease b rent seeking c overconfidence and d neglect of education public expenditure on education relative to national income expected years of schooling for girls and gross secondary school enrolment are all shown to be inversely related to the share of natural capital in national wealth across countries natural capital appears to crowd out human capital thereby slowing down the pace of economic development

the narrow moving band the dutch disease and the competitive consequences of mrs thatcher notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies abstract this paper presents a model of trade in which comparative advantage instead of being determined by underlying attributes of countries evolves over time through learning by doing in this model arbitrary patterns of specialization once established tend to become entrenched over time the model sheds light on three widely held views that do not make sense in more conventional models first is the view that temporary protection of selected sectors can permanently alter the pattern of comparative advantage in the protecting country s favor second is the view that seemingly favorable developments such as the discovery of exportable natural resources may lead to a permanent loss of other sectors and reduce welfare in the long run third is the possibility that a temporary overvaluation of a currency due to tight money can lead to a permanent loss of competitiveness in some sectors

institutions and the resource curse countries rich in natural resources constitute both growth losers and growth winners we claim that the main reason for these diverging experiences is differences in the quality of institutions more natural resources push aggregate income down when institutions are grabber friendly while more resources raise income when institutions are producer friendly we test this theory building on sachs and warner s influential works on the resource curse our main hypothesis that institutions are decisive for the resource curse is confirmed our results contrast the claims of sachs and warner that institutions do not play a role

booming sector and de industrialisation in a small open economy this paper presents a theoretical analysis of the dutch disease the phenomenon whereby a boom in one traded goods sector squeezes porfitability in other traded goods sectors both by directly bi

panel estimation for co2 emissions energy consumption economic growth trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries abstract this paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption economic growth trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries nic using the time series data for the period 1971 2007 using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1 from the johansen fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables the granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long run causal relationship but there is unidirectional short run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions from economic growth to energy consumption from trade openness to economic growth from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization it is found that the long run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption 1 2189 is higher than short run elasticity of 0 5984 this indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more but in respect of economic growth trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long run

environment kuznets curve for co2 emissions a cointegration analysis for china abstract this study examines the long run relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of china by employing time series data of 1975 2005 in particular the study aims at testing whether environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between co 2 emissions and per capita real gdp holds in the long run or not auto regressive distributed lag ardl methodology is employed for empirical analysis a quadratic relationship between income and co 2 emission has been found for the sample period supporting ekc relationship the results of granger causality tests indicate one way causality runs through economic growth to co 2 emissions the results of this study also indicate that the carbon emissions are mainly determined by income and energy consumption in the long run trade has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on co 2 emissions

investment under uncertainty in dynamic conflicts this paper analyses a model in which two groups repeatedly compete with each other for a prize in every time period we assume that there is a status quo bias if there is a fight today yesterday s winner is in a stronger position than the other group hence a change of the status quo has long term consequences that groups need to take into account important applications of this model include lobbying for legislation and political transitions through revolutions we analyse the strategic timing of attacks on the status quo which is similar to investment decisions under uncertainty we find that the attack threshold is considerably lower than in a comparable one period game and that the expenditure level necessary to change the status quo is low in comparison to the prize this provides a possible solution to tullock s rent seeking paradox in lobbying copyright 2006 wiley blackwell

crime induced poverty traps abstract poverty makes thieves and thieves hamper economic growth we study these linkages in a model of modern sector job creation job creation has two effects higher labor demand tends to lower crime while higher output gives more to steal tending to increase crime at low levels of modernization the second effect dominates and as a consequence the model has decreasing returns to scale at higher levels of modernization there is increasing returns to scale due to declining crime the economy may end up in a poverty trap with high crime and low production or obtain full modernization with low crime rates the danger of ending up in a poverty trap has implications for economic policies we show for instance that a reform intended to improve efficiency may throw the economy into a vicious circle of increasing crime and stagnation if implemented too fast

learning by doing and the dutch disease this paper develops a model of learning by doing and the dutch disease that extends the earlier literature in two ways first it is assumed that both the traded and the non traded sector can contribute to learning second it is assumed that there are learning spillovers between the sectors it is shown that within such a model a foreign exchange gift results in a real exchange rate depreciation in the long run due to a shift in the steady state relative productivity between the traded and the non traded sector in contrast to standard models of the dutch disease production and productivity in both sectors may go up or down the conditions for the different cases are worked out

dutch disease and the mitigation effect of migration evidence from canadian provinces this article evaluates whether immigration can mitigate the dutch disease effects associated with booms in natural resource sectors we derive predicted changes in the size of the non tradable sector from a small general equilibrium model a la obstfeld rogoff using data for canadian provinces we find evidence that aggregate immigration mitigates the increase in the size of the non tradable sector in booming regions the mitigation effect is due mostly to interprovincial migration and temporary foreign workers there is no evidence of such an effect for permanent international immigration interprovincial migration also results in a spreading effect of dutch disease from booming to non booming provinces

two aggregate games demonstration using a production appropriation model we expand the scope of the two aggregate method by applying it to a situation where many heterogeneous players are free to contribute to both aggregates such situations naturally arise in various resource allocation problems hence our method is useful in many applications a production appropriation model is employed to illustrate how the problem of establishing the nash equilibrium can be reduced from solving n 2 best response functions in n unknowns to solving two consistency conditions in two unknowns we then conduct a comparative static exercise that the conventional approach could not handle easily if at all to demonstrate the power of our method this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

dictators development and the virtue of political instability a large body of literature stresses the benefits of regime stability for economic growth in poor countries this view however discounts the gains from threats to regime security when populations living under dictatorial regimes cannot benefit from the disciplining of political competition available to voters in democracies this paper applies a model of economic growth to study the sources of the differences in economic performance and repression policy among dictatorships as well as the parallel in dictatorial regimes of the benefits achieved through political competition in democracies threats to the security of dictatorial regimes are shown to be a means of benefiting the population through the responses of the regime

a further inquiry into the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental kuznets curve abstract empirical research on the relationship between economic growth and its impact on the environment often tests the environmental kuznets curve ekc a hypothesis that rising national output leads to increases in pollution emissions until an economy reaches a certain size and decreases thereafter this paper addresses a branch of ekc literature focused on the role international trade plays in shaping this relationship in particular we test the pollution haven hypothesis which posits that emission reductions observed in developed nations are partly the result of shifting dirty production to developing nations with lax environmental standards we estimate ekcs for seven oft studied pollutants and find little evidence that pollution havens play a significant role in shaping the ekc we also find that confidence intervals around ekc turning points are very wide often including values well above the range of the data this leads us to be skeptical of the optimistic view that economic growth naturally leads to improvements in environmental quality

the dynastic cycle and the stationary state a dynastic cycle is a periodic alternation of society between despotism and anarchy in a society of farmers rulers and bandits population growth simultaneously impoverishes farmers and reduces the ruler s surplus per head society evolves into a despotic stationary state or into a dynastic cycle dependent on whether poverty among farmers chokes off population growth before the surplus shrinks to the point where rulers turn to banditry copyright 1989 by american economic association

environmental productivity and kuznets curve in india abstract as a result of india s extremely rapid economic growth the scale and seriousness of environmental problems are no longer in doubt whether pollution abatement technologies are utilized more efficiently is crucial in the analysis of environmental management because it influences the cost of alternative production and pollution abatement technologies in this study we use state level industry data of sulfur dioxide nitrogen dioxide and suspended particular matter over the period 1991 2003 employing recently developed productivity measurement technique we show that overall environmental productivities decrease over time in india furthermore we analyze the determinants of environmental productivities and find environmental kuznets curve type relationship existences between environmental productivity and income panel analysis results show that the scale effect dominates over the technique effect therefore a combined effect of income on environmental productivity is negative

equilibrium in the jungle in the jungle power and coercion govern the exchange of resources we study a simple stylized model of the jungle that mirrors an exchange economy we de ne the notion of jungle equilibrium and demonstrate that a number of standard results of competitive markets hold in the jungle jel classi cation c7 d4 s477 b201

climate shocks state capacity and peasant uprisings in north china during 25 1911 ce china provides an interesting case study of civil conflict because of her long history and rich records using a unique dynastic panel dataset for north china during 25 1911 ce this study finds that severe famines and dynastic age were positively correlated with peasant uprisings whereas government disaster relief as a proxy for state capacity played a significant mitigating role negative climate shocks e g severe drought locust plagues affected peasant uprisings primarily through the channel of severe famines the effects of population density temperature and other climate shocks e g flood levee breaches snow disasters and frost were either not robust or insignificant

a comparison of rent seeking models and economic models of conflict this paper provides a comparative analysis of the basic rent seeking model and a simple economic model of conflict each model is concerned with a game in which players invest resources in pursuit of a prize the purpose of the analysis is to elucidate structural differences between the two models and to analyse the consequent behavioral differences and equilibrium outcomes in the two cases a key finding is that where such comparisons are possible the conflict model tends to involve greater relative expenditure on wealth redistribution activities than does the rent seeking model

co2 emissions energy consumption and output in france abstract this paper examines the dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions energy consumption and output for france using cointegration and vector error correction modelling techniques we argue that these variables are strongly inter related and therefore their relationship must be examined using an integrated framework the results provide evidence for the existence of a fairly robust long run relationship between these variables for the period 1960 2000 the causality results support the argument that economic growth exerts a causal influence on growth of energy use and growth of pollution in the long run the results also point to a uni directional causality running from growth of energy use to output growth in the short run

energy consumption income and carbon emissions in the united states abstract this paper investigates the effect of energy consumption and output on carbon emissions in the united states earlier research focused on testing the existence and or shape of an environmental kuznets curve without taking energy consumption into account we investigate the granger causality relationship between income energy consumption and carbon emissions including labor and gross fixed capital formation in the model we find that income does not granger cause carbon emissions in the us in the long run but energy use does hence income growth by itself may not become a solution to environmental problems