local government structure and public expenditures the law of 1 n postulates a positive relationship betweenthe number of democratically electedrepresentative districts and governmentspending strong support for thisrelationship exists in legislatures in theunited states at both the state andnational level and across countries fewstudies have examined this relationship atthe local level despite the fact that localgovernments operate under constraintssimilar to those faced by representativelegislatures using a sample of georgiacounties we find the number of countycommissioners to be positively correlatedwith county government expenditures indicating support for the law of 1 nat the local level

efficiency and equalization payments in a federal system of government a synthesis and extensions of recent results this paper investigates the rationale for a system of equalization transfers in a federal system of government the existing sources of inefficiency of resource allocation in economies with more than one level of government are synthesized in the framework of a simple decentralized multiprovince model with mobile factors of production the sources of inefficiency arise first because migrants respond at the margin to incorrect signals owing to the phenomena of rent sharing and fiscal exterality and second because of global rather than local inefficiencies the model is then extended to consider the role of the federal government in providing intergovernmental transfers in the face of such inefficiencies in addition to synthesizing the sources of inefficiency in federal models the equity arguments for equalization are briefly recounted efficacite et paiements de perequation dans un systeme federal de gouvernement synthese et extensions de certains resultats recents ce memoire examine la logique qui soustend un systeme de paiements de perequation dans un systeme fdderal de gouverement les auteurs utilisent un modele simple d un systeme multi provincial decentralise avec des facteurs de production mobiles pour definir les sources d inefficacite dans l allocation des ressources dans les dconomies qui possedent plus d un niveau de gouvernement ces inefficacites proviennent de ce que d abord ceux qui se deplacent le font en reponse a la marge a des signaux incorrects engendres par le partage de la rente sur la base de la residence et par les phenomenes d exteralites fiscales elles sont aussi le resultat d inefficacites globales plutot que locales dans le cadre de ce modele les auteurs analysent le role du gouvernement federal effectuant des transferts inter gouverementaux pour corriger ces inefficacites en plus de presenter une synthese des sources d inefficacite dans les regimes federaux les auteurs font un bref rappel en passant a l ensemble des arguments fondes sur l equite qu on utilise pour rationaliser les paiements de perequation this paper is a linear combination of two papers presented at the may 1982 meetings of the canadian economics association in halifax entitled the case for equalization payments by the authors and recent developments in the theory of regional economic policy in canada by boadway the authors are grateful for comments by the discussants jim johnson and baxter macdonald and by jack mintz brian scarfe gerard belanger david sewell tom courchene and the referees we are especially heavily indebted to dan usher for many stimulating comments and suggestions while the work was in progress some of the above persons will undoubtedly disagree with the emphasis we have chosen to put on various aspects of the analysis for policy purposes support for some of this work has been provided by the economic council of canada and is gratefully acknowledged canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xv no 4 november novembre 1982 printed in canada imprimd au canada 0008 4085 82 0000 0613 01 50 1982 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 207 46 13 127 on wed 12 oct 2016 04 27 47 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms 614 robin boadway and frank flatters

female labour supply and marital status decisions a life cycle model this paper studies the interdependence between and the determinants of life cycle marital status and labour force participation decisions of women a dynamic utility maximization model is presented and estimated using longitudinal data on women from the panel study of income dynamics the mle method employed involves solving a dynamic programming problem further a minimum distance estimator is proposed which allows for the incorporation of wage data in a computationally simple way the estimates are used to predict changes in the life cycle patterns of employment marriage and divorce due to differences in education race the female s earnings and her potential husband s earnings the estimation results indicate that the utility gains to marriage are decreasing in the female s wage rate and increasing in her potential husband s earnings while the opposite is found for gains to working ignoring the endogeneity of marital status decisions is shown to lead to an underestimation of own and husband s wage effects on female labour supply

the impact of body weight on occupational mobility and career development this paper examines the relationship between individuals weight and their employment decisions over the life cycle i estimate a dynamic stochastic model of individuals annual joint decisions of occupation hours worked and schooling the model allows body weight to affect non monetary costs switching costs and distribution of wages for each occupation and also allows individuals employment decisions to affect body weight i use conditional density estimation to formulate the distributions of wages and body weight evolution i find that heavier individuals face higher switching costs when transitioning into white collar occupations earn lower returns to experience in white collar occupations and earn lower wages in socially intensive jobs simulating the model with estimated parameters decreased occupational mobility accounts for 10 percent of the obesity wage gap while contemporaneous wage penalties for body weight are small the cost over the life cycle is substantial an exogenous increase in initial body mass by 20 percent leads to a 10 percent decrease in wages over the life course

teacher testing teacher education and teacher characteristics school officials and legislators have long been concerned with the possibility of declining teacher quality see e g sean corcoran et al 2002 beginning in the 1960 s states began testing prospective teachers in a direct effort to ensure that teachers meet minimum standards for basic skills and subject knowledge by 1999 41 states required applicants to pass some sort of standardized certification test as a theoretical matter however the impact of such testing is ambiguous test requirements may establish a minimum achievement standard as their proponents hope on the other hand testing and other certification requirements may deter some qualified applicants from teaching if these requirements are perceived as costly this is the barriers to entry story first noted in the occupational licensing context by milton f friedman and simon kuznets 1945 another concern with job applicant testing is the possibility of an adverse impact on minority candidates who usually do worse on tests see david autor and david scarborough 2003 for a recent study paralleling increased state involvement in teacher certification is the increase in teachers educational credentials especially in public schools for example in 1971 over two thirds of public school teachers had a b a while only 27 percent had a master s or education specialist s degree by 1991 however over half of public school teachers 52 6 percent had a master s or education specialist s degree in contrast the proportion of private school teachers

the turnover of teachers a competing risks explanation in this paper we analyze the decision by teachers to leave the profession in a dependent competing risks framework the econometric model allows for a flexible semiparametric specification of the duration dependence structure and of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution in each exit specific hazard function our results obtained for a large sample of uk teachers affirm the importance of teacher salaries and opportunity wages in the turnover decision of teachers and illustrate the insight gained from differentiating between multiple destinations or exit types

estimating the firm s labor supply curve in a new monopsony framework school teachers in missouri in the context of certain dynamic models it is possible to infer the elasticity of labor supply to the firm from the elasticity of the quit rate with respect to the wage using this property we estimate the average labor supply elasticity to public school districts in missouri we leverage the plausibly exogenous variation in prenegotiated district salary schedules to instrument for actual salary these estimates imply a labor supply elasticity of about 3 7 suggesting that school districts possess significant market power the presence of monopsony power in this teacher labor market may be partially explained by its institutional features

the effect of salaries and opportunity costs on duration in teaching evidence from michigan this paper demonstrates that salaries and opportunity costs have important influences on how long teachers stay in teaching the empirical work is based on a new longitudinal dataset providing information on the careers of 7800 michigan public school teachers the generalized least squares estimation technique accommodates censored observations time varying covariates and fixed effects one implication of the result is that predictions from the current generation of teacher supply and demand models are likely to be misleading copyright 1989 by mit press

how vouchers could change the market for education small probability that vouchers will in the foreseeable future be adopted on a large scale in any school district or state at the moment only three states have adopted publicly funded voucher programs and all of these programs are limited in scale nonetheless in recent years over 40 state legislatures have considered proposals to provide some type of voucher program or tuition tax credit for at least some families in a given state or school district and the children s scholarship fund see http www scholarshipfund org has helped create or expand privately funded voucher programs in numerous cities as vouchers become a more significant part of education policy debates the time is right to consider what we know and do not know about the likely effects of adopting various voucher schemes in the balance of this paper i describe both empirical and theoretical work on education that speaks to this topic i argue that we cannot confidently predict the outcomes that would result from various voucher schemes and i also stress that debates over vouchers per se are not informative details concerning funding targeting and discretion in the use of vouchers should greatly affect the outcomes associated with any particular voucher program still empirical evidence on the performance of public versus private schools as well as numerical results from existing simulation models suggest that policymakers should be able to design voucher programs that would be helpful to minority students in large cities public schools in large cities often perform poorly in minority neighborhoods and this is especially true in economically disadvantaged areas

the implications of competition among jurisdictions does tiebout need politics the paper investigates whether compensation among local jurisdiction is by itself sufficient to ensure efficient provision of local public goods jurisdictions have fixed boundaries and each has an entrenched government with the power to tax and supply the public good residents can move costlessly among jurisdictions it is shown that competition among numerous jurisdictions is not sificient to guarantee public sector efficiency though residents can vote with their feet land is immobile hence governments can unsurp some land rents for their own ends increasing the number of jurisdictions limits but cannot completely eliminate the ability to exercise discretionary governmental power

job exit behavior of older men a dynamic programming model of job exit behavior and retirement is constructed and estimated using the method of simulated moments the model and estimation method allow for both unobserved individual effects and unobserved job specific match effects the model is estimated using two different assumptions about individual discount factors first a static model with the discount factor equal to zero is estimated then a dynamic model with the discount factor equal to 95 is estimated in both models it is found that bad health age and lack of education increase the probability of retirement the dynamic model performs better than the static model and has different implications for retirement behavior the job specific effects are an important source of unobserved heterogeneity copyright 1991 by the econometric society

recruiting smarter teachers in recent years many states have raised teacher salaries to attract more capable teachers since teacher labor markets are typically in a state of excess supply success of such policies is contingent on containing perverse feedbacks which arise among exit decisions vacancy rates and the willingness of prospective teachers to invest in occupation specific human capital using sat scores as a measure of ability we find that an across the board raise produces modest improvements in the work force at best indeed under plausible parameter values it is possible for mean ability to decline

unravelling of dynamic sorting we consider a two sided finite horizon search and matching model with heterogeneous types and complementarity between types the quality of the pool of potential partners deteriorates as agents who have found mutually agreeable matches exit the market when search is costless and all agents participate in each matching round the market performs a sorting function in that high types of agents have multiple chances to match with their peers however this sorting function is lost if agents incur an arbitrarily small cost in order to participate in each round with a sufficiently rich type space the market unravels as almost all agents rush to participate in the first round and match and exit with anyone they meet copyright 2005 wiley blackwell

voters as fiscal conservatives voters penalize federal and state spending growth this is the central result of my analysis of voting behavior in presidential senatorial and gubernatorial elections from 1950 1988 the composition of federal spending growth seems irrelevant the vote loss to the president s party from an extra dollar of defense or nondefense spending is the same however in gubernatorial elections expansion of state welfare spending exacts a disproportionate political price deficit financing of federal or state spending does not appear to matter politically i conclude by discussing the obvious question of why government budgets have grown in the face of this voter hostility

foreign direct investment heterogeneous workers and employment security evidence from germany we analyze how foreign direct investment fdi affects employment security using administrative microdata for german employees measuring fdi intensity at the industry level enables us to take into account the sum of direct effects at multinationals as well as indirect effects of fdi throughout the affected industry we find that both inward and outward fdi significantly reduce employment security this is particularly the case for inward fdi coming from the western part of the european union as well as for outward fdi going to central and eastern europe the effects are sizeable for older and low skilled workers

the quality and distribution of teachers under the no child left behind act the heart of accountability under the no child left behind nclb act is an attempt to change the existing incentives in schools with the ultimate objective that all students meet a proficiency standard existing research indicates that nothing is more important to high achieve ment as having effective teachers implying that the impact of new incentives on teachers will be central to any consideration of the accountability statutes tracing the impacts of nclb on the stock and distribution of teachers is none theless a difficult and uncertain task the belief that the quality of teachers matters a great deal to the quality of education received by students has actually proven hard to substantiate and the reasons for this difficulty are key to assessing the impacts of no child left behind a substantial body of research going back to the coleman et al 1966 report has attempted to link commonly used measures of teacher quality such as experience degree level and state teacher certification to student outcomes surprisingly except for perhaps the first few years of classroom experience no robust connection has appeared for example hanushek and rivkin 2006 review various studies attempting to identify characteristics of effective teachers one

opportunity wages classroom characteristics and teacher mobility this article analyzes the impact of classroom characteristics and opportunity wages on four possible labor market choices of teachers in florida remaining at their present school switching schools within a school district changing school districts and leaving teaching discrete time multinomial logit hazard model estimates indicate that classroom characteristics play a larger role than school average student characteristics in determining teacher mobility opportunity wages based on past teacher movements to other competing districts and professions are found to pull teachers away from their initial placements once opportunity wages and working conditions are considered teachers own salaries are found to exert little impact on teacher mobility within the profession although they reduce attrition out of the profession policy simulations indicate that targeted salary increases based on teacher specific working conditions are important to retain teachers at a given school

welfare reform when recipients are forward looking in 1996 the aid to families with dependent children program was replaced with the temporary assistance for needy families tanf program this paper considers the effects of two specific components of tanf time limits and work requirements on employment marriage and welfare participation a discrete choice dynamic programming model is used and parameter estimates are obtained using data from the panel study of income dynamics policy simulations show that a five year lifetime time limit results in a 60 percent reduction in welfare use and that a substantial part of this reduction occurs because recipients are forward looking

standing tiebout on his head tax capitalization and the monopoly power of local governments much of the public finance literature argues that localgovernments behave competitively due to residents ease of exitand entry the model presented here challenges this widespreadconclusion though it is costless to relocate to anotherlocality the presence of tax capitalization makes it impossiblefor land owners to avoid monopolistic pricing of public servicesby moving land owners can only choose between paying the taxdirectly or paying it indirectly in the form of a lower sale valuefor their housing if they exit in consequence the only realcheck on local governments comes through imperfectly functioningelectoral channels

competition and monopoly power in local government an extension of caplan 2001 caplan 2001 shows that because land is asource of immobile wealth localgovernments can use the property tax toavoid competitive pressures of the tieboutmodel allowing them to deviate fromcitizens preferences in this comment ishow that the property tax is not the onlytax local governments can use to avoidcompetitive pressure most taxes placed onproperty owners allow local governments toextract some rents despite perfect citizenmobility

offshoring the nature of tasks and occupational stability empirical evidence for germany using a large administrative data set of individual employment histories for germany this paper studies the relationship between offshoring and the individual risk of leaving the occupation moreover a rich data set on tasks performed in occupations is used to better characterise the sources of worker vulnerability both material and service offshoring are on average not associated with an increase in occupational outflow rates however this association depends on the nature of tasks performed in the occupation higher intensities of interactive and in particular non routine tasks are associated with a larger decrease or a smaller increase in the occupational hazard rate

would higher salaries keep teachers in high poverty schools evidence from a policy intervention in north carolina abstract for a three year time period beginning in 2001 north carolina awarded an annual bonus of 1800 to certified math science and special education teachers working in public secondary schools with either high poverty rates or low test scores using longitudinal data on teachers we estimate hazard models that identify the impact of this differential pay by comparing turnover patterns before and after the program s implementation across eligible and ineligible categories of teachers and across eligible and barely ineligible schools results suggest that this bonus payment was sufficient to reduce mean turnover rates of the targeted teachers by 17 experienced teachers exhibited the strongest response to the program finally the effect of the program may have been at least partly undermined by the state s failure to fully educate teachers regarding the eligibility criteria our estimates most likely underpredict the potential outcome of a program of permanent salary differentials operating under complete information

rushes in large timing games we develop a continuum player timing game that subsumes standard wars of attrition and pre emption games and introduces a new rushes phenomenon payoffs are continuous and single peaked functions of the stopping time and stopping quantile we show that if payoffs are hump shaped in the quantile then a sudden rush of players stops in any nash or subgame perfect equilibrium fear relaxes the first mover advantage in pre emption games asking that the least quantile beat the average greed relaxes the last mover advantage in wars of attrition asking just that the last quantile payoff exceed the average with greed play is inefficiently late an accelerating war of attrition starting at optimal time followed by a rush with fear play is inefficiently early a slowing pre emption game ending at the optimal time preceded by a rush the theory predicts the length duration and intensity of stopping and the size and timing of rushes and offers insights for many common timing games

electoral competition with informed and uninformed voters i present a model of electoral competition in which candidates raise campaign contributions by choosing policies that benefit interest groups and then expend those contributions to influence voters who are uninformed about the policies informed voters however vote based on those policies so candidates face a trade off between choosing a policy to generate funds to attract the uninformed vote and choosing a policy to attract the informed vote electoral equilibria are characterized for two categories of policies particularistic and collective in the case of particularistic policies the equilibrium policies of the candidates are separated if the proportion of uninformed voters is sufficiently high and the degree of separation is an increasing function of that proportion the model is extended to include the public financing of elections and incumbency advantages for the case of collective policies the candidates locate at the median of the ideal points of the informed voters and contributions are zero

the economics of teacher quality abstract concern is often voiced about the quality of american schoolteachers this paper suggests that while the relative quality of teachers is declining this decline may be the result of technological changes that have raised the price of skilled workers outside teaching without affecting the productivity of skilled teachers growth in the price of skilled workers can cause schools to lower the relative quality of teachers and raise teacher quantity instead evidence from the national longitudinal survey of youth demonstrates that wage and schooling are good measures of teacher quality analysis of u s census microdata then reveals that the relative schooling and experience adjusted relative wages of u s schoolteachers have fallen significantly from 1940 to 1990 moreover class sizes have also fallen substantially the declines in class size and in relative quality seem correlated over time and space with growth in the relative price of skilled workers

balanced budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition this paper models balanced budget redistribution between socio economic groups as the outcome of electoral competition between two political parties equilibrium is unique in the present model and a sufficient condition for existence is given requiring that there be enough stochastic heterogeneity with respect to party preferences in the electorate the validity of hotelling s principle of minimum differentiation and of director s law are examined under alternative hypotheses concerning administrative costs of redistributions and voter s possibilities both of abstaining from voting and of becoming campaign activists for one of the parties the policy strategy of expected plurality maximization is contrasted with the strategy of maximizing the probability of gaining a plurality incomes are fixed and known so lump sum taxation is feasible however constraints on tax transfer differentiation between individuals are permitted in the analysis

taxation and the tiebout model the differential effects of head taxes taxes on land rents and property taxes on the theory of state and local public finance is the seminal paper by charles tiebout 1956 tiebout constructed a multijurisdictional model in which independent local governments offer a wide variety of expenditure and tax policies and perfectly mobile consumers reveal their preferences for local public goods through their choice of residential community he argued that under such circumstances local public service provision would be efficient the tiebout model has formed the basis of a vast number of subsequent articles in the state and local public finance literature and has also been very influential in urban and regional economics the efficiency properties of various tiebout type models of local public good provision have been examined and the role of politics in these models has been debated at length in this literature of more direct relevance to this paper however is the fact that although tiebout had little to say directly about taxation simply assuming the existence of head taxes subsequent analyses have used adaptations of this model to examine the effects of local head taxes land taxes and property taxes it is the literature on the efficiency and distributional effects of alternative local taxes that is the subject of this survey 1

redistributive politics and economic efficiency the political process often compensates the losers from technical change or international competition in an economically inefficient way namely by subsidizing or protecting declining industries instead of encouraging the movement of resources to other more productive uses we find that a dynamic inconsistency in the game of redistributive politics contributes to this outcome to achieve economically efficient outcomes it is necessary that those making economically inefficient choices not be given offsetting transfers but the political process distributes income on the basis of political characteristics which are in general different from the economic characteristics that are rewarded by the market we identify circumstances in which the inefficient choosers have desirable political characteristics and are therefore immune from threats of having to face the economic consequences of their choices

a dynamic analysis of educational attainment occupational choices and job search this article examines career choices using a dynamic structural model that nests a job search model within a human capital model of occupational and educational choices wage growth occurs in the model because workers move between firms and occupations as they search for suitable job matches and because workers endogenously accumulate firm and occupation specific human capital simulations performed using the estimated model reveal that both self selection in occupational choices and mobility between firms account for a much larger share of total earnings and utility than the combined effects of firm and occupation specific human capital

information asymmetry and equilibrium monitoring in education abstract we develop a theoretical and computational model of school choice and achievement that embeds information asymmetries in the provision of education because school effort is unobservable to households and policymakers schools have an incentive to under provide effort this moral hazard affects both public and private schools although public schools are subject to an additional distortion because of limited competition and fixed funding household monitoring of schools can mitigate moral hazard but some households may free ride on the monitoring of others using our calibrated model we simulate two policies aimed at raising achievement public monitoring of public schools and private school vouchers our results indicate that in large scale settings no single tool may suffice the reason is twofold a no tool raises achievement or welfare for all households and b since the extent of moral hazard is endogenous the application of each tool has unintended consequences that limit its own effectiveness results also indicate that setting the policy parameters for public schools at the levels preferred by the majority of households may mitigate the distortions nonetheless the current actual values of these parameters seem to match more closely the preferences of public schools than the preferences of parents

searching for effective teachers with imperfect information teaching may be the most scrutinized occupation in the economy over the eaching may be the most scrutinized occupation in the economy over the past four decades empirical researchers many of them economists have past four decades empirical researchers many of them economists have accumulated an impressive amount of evidence on teachers the heteroaccumulated an impressive amount of evidence on teachers the heterogeneity in teacher productivity the rise in productivity associated with teaching geneity in teacher productivity the rise in productivity associated with teaching credentials and on the job experience rates of turnover the costs of recruitment credentials and on the job experience rates of turnover the costs of recruitment the relationship between supply and quality the effect of class size and the monetary the relationship between supply and quality the effect of class size and the monetary value of academic achievement gains over a student s lifetime since the passage value of academic achievement gains over a student s lifetime since the passage of the no child left behind act along with a number of state level educational of the no child left behind act along with a number of state level educational initiatives the data needed to estimate individual teacher performance based on initiatives the data needed to estimate individual teacher performance based on student achievement gains have become more widely available however there have student achievement gains have become more widely available however there have been relatively few efforts to examine the implications of this voluminous literature been relatively few efforts to examine the implications of this voluminous literature on teacher performance in this paper we ask what the existing evidence implies on teacher performance in this paper we ask what the existing evidence implies for how school leaders might recruit evaluate and retain teachers for how school leaders might recruit evaluate and retain teachers we begin by summarizing the evidence on fi ve key points referring to existing we begin by summarizing the evidence on fi ve key points referring to existing work and to evidence we have accumulated from our research with the nation s work and to evidence we have accumulated from our research with the nation s two largest school districts los angeles and new york city first teachers display two largest school districts los angeles and new york city first teachers display considerable heterogeneity in their effects on student achievement gains the stanconsiderable heterogeneity in their effects on student achievement gains the standard deviation across teachers in their impact on student achievement gains is on dard deviation across teachers in their impact on student achievement gains is on the order of 0 1 to 0 2 student level standard deviations which would improve the the order of 0 1 to 0 2 student level standard deviations which would improve the

monopsony mobility and sex differences in pay missouri school teachers we examine the sex differences in the pay of school teachers in missouri in missouri school districts pay is determined by a salary schedule that maps teaching experience and education level of an individual to a salary level in spite of this apparently mechanical rule for determining pay female teachers earn less than male teachers after controlling for experience and education we explore how such a difference could arise from differential job mobility and find some evidence to support this idea however within district differences in pay are a more important source of differences in pay between men and women

the economics of schooling production and efficiency in public schools n recent years public and professional interest in schools has been heightened by a spate of reports many of them critical of current school policy these policy documents have added to persistent and long standing concerns about the cost effectiveness and fairness of the current school structure and have made schooling once again a serious public issue as in the past however any renewed interest in education is likely to be short lived doomed to dissipate as frustration over the inability of policy to improve school practice sets in this frustration about school policy relates directly to knowledge about the educational production process and in turn to underlying research on schools although the educational process has been extensively researched clear policy prescriptions flowing from this research have been difficult to derive 2 there exists however a consistency to the research findings that does have an immediate application to school policy schools differ dramatically in quality

length of stay for low cost tourism abstract awareness of tourists length of stay and the factors which determine that is an essential element for good planning and management at tourist destinations this article analyses to what extent the personal characteristics of the low cost tourist those of the trip and stay and those of the destination itself are significant in determining the duration of a trip to this end an econometric duration model is estimated the results obtained show that the effect of time restrictions seem to be relevant for explaining the observed differences in length of stay as well as the effects of the tourist s spending capacity prices and the differences between urban and sun and sand destinations furthermore the model also allows us to analyse changes in the likelihood of the stay being ended at a specific point in time hazard associated with changes in the explanatory variables and to obtain predicted survival times for different groups of tourists

an estimable dynamic stochastic model of fertility and child mortality this paper develops a finite horizon dynamic stochastic model of discrete choice with respect to life cycle fertility within an environment where infant survival is uncertain the model yields implications for the number timing and spacing of children a tractable estimation method is developed for the linear constraint quadratic utility case that is intimately tied to the dynamic optimization problem and the method is applied to malaysian household data estimation is based on integrating the numerical solution of the dynamic programming model of behavior with a maximum likelihood procedure

understanding the twentieth century growth in u s school spending persistent increases in spending on elementary and secondary schools have gone virtually undocumented real expenditure per student increased 3 percent per year over the period 1890 1990 decomposition of the spending growth shows that it resulted from a combination of falling pupil staff ratios increasing real wages to teachers and rising expenditure outside of the classroom although the expansion of education for the handicapped has had a disproportionate effect on spending most of the growth in expenditure during the 1980s came from other sources significant teacher salary increases particularly for females have failed to keep up with wages in other occupations

self fulfilling early contracting rush in markets for entry level professionals the insurance motive drives some participants to sign early contracts the rush to early contracting can be self fulfilling as both its effect on expectations about demand supply balance in the subsequent spot market and the effect on it from changes in the demand supply balance can be nonmonotone matching markets with more risk averse participants a greater uncertainty regarding relative supply of positions or a more polarized distribution of applicant qualities are more vulnerable to self fulfilling early contracting rushes employers can have a collective interest in preventing early offers to a few promising applicants from starting the rushes

teacher quality in public and private schools under a voucher system the case of chile chile is unusual in having long term experience with nationwide school vouchers a key criticism of school voucher systems is that they make it easier for private schools to attract better teachers to the detriment of public schools this paper uses longitudinal data from chile to estimate a discrete choice dynamic programming dcdp model of teacher and nonteacher labor supply decisions and to explore how wage policies affect the composition of the teacher labor force in public and private schools in the model individuals first decide whether to get a teaching degree and then choose annually from among five work home sector alternatives empirical results show that private voucher schools attract better teachers than public schools however the existence of the private voucher sector also draws higher productivity individuals into the teaching profession

a theory of quits and layoffs with efficient turnover this paper answers the efficient turnover literature s long silence regarding the quit layoff distinction treating quits as worker initiated separations and layoffs as firm initiated separations i establish that the existence of layoffs is compatible with optimizing workers and firms forming and dissolving employment matches to exploit all the gains from trade the efficient turnover approach is shown to be consistent with many empirical regularities that distinguish quits from layoffs structural implications of the model are tested on data from the psid

incentives work getting teachers to come to school we use a randomized experiment and a structural model to test whether monitoring and financial incentives can reduce teacher absence and increase learning in india in treatment schools teachers attendance was monitored daily using cameras and their salaries were made a nonlinear function of attendance teacher absenteeism in the treatment group fell by 21 percentage points relative to the control group and the children s test scores increased by 0 17 standard deviations we estimate a structural dynamic labor supply model and find that teachers respond strongly to financial incentives our model is used to compute cost minimizing compensation policies jel i21 j31 j45 o15

do alternative opportunities matter the role of female labor markets in the decline of teacher quality abstract this paper documents the widely perceived but little investigated notion that teachers today are less qualified than they once were evidence of a marked decline in the quality of young women going into teaching between 1960 and 1990 is presented using standardized test scores undergraduate institution selectivity and positive assortative mating characteristics as indicators of quality in contrast the quality of young women becoming professionals increased the roy model of self selection highlights how occupational differences in the returns to skill determine teacher quality estimates suggest the significance of increasing professional opportunities for women in affecting the decline in teacher quality

teacher sorting teacher quality and student composition abstract using panel data for norwegian schools we establish a two equation supply and demand model for teachers with approved education taking into account nationally determined teacher pay and a strict teacher appointment rule the data enable us to separately estimate supply and demand functions for certified teachers the results clearly indicate that the student body composition and in particular students belonging to ethnic minorities influences both teacher supply and teacher demand the implied negative relationship between excess demand for certified teachers and the share of minority students is likely to be important for teacher quality

female labour supply and household employment shocks maternity leave as an insurance mechanism this paper investigates the role of unpaid maternity leave in providing household insurance against paternal employment shocks the main outcome is the timing of a mothers return to work after having a child exploiting the us family and medical leave act we find that mothers eligible for maternity leave speed up their return to work in response to a paternal shock with the conditional probability of being in work 49 higher than in households with no unpaid maternity leave further evidence is provided on the insurance role of unpaid maternity leave through i no significant interaction between paid maternity leave and the paternal shock and ii smoothing of consumption effects of the shock for households covered by unpaid leave

local property and state income taxes the role of interjurisdictional competition and collusion this paper addresses two long standing positive questions in public finance i why is the property tax despite widespread popular complaints against its fairness the almost exclusive tax instrument used by local governments and ii why do we consistently observe higher levels of governments states undermining local property tax systems through income tax funded grants and state imposed caps on local property tax rates a new intuitive argument to explain question is presented and tested in simulations using a computable general equilibrium model with parameters set to be consistent with new jersey data both the intuitive argument and the simulation results indicate that setting local income tax rates to zero is a dominant strategy for community planners when faced with popular sentiment against the property tax community planners can collude and introduce local income taxes simultaneously to prevent adverse general equilibrium migration and price changes since zero income tax rates are dominan

a competitive theory of equilibrium and disequilibrium unravelling in two sided matching i offer a competitive explanation for the rush toward early contracting in matching markets the explanation does not rely on market power strategic motives or instability of the assignment mechanism uncertainty about workers ability will produce inefficient matching if contracts are formed early however the insurance gain from early contracting may outweigh the loss from inefficient matching if firms are risk neutral it is the mediocre firms that will have the greatest incentive to offer early contracts opening up a market for early contracting will generally benefit the firms and hurt the workers if firms are sufficiently risk averse even the lowest quality firms may want to offer early contracts and a competitive equilibrium may not exist

unraveling over time abstract unraveling the excessively early matching of future workers to employers leads to hiring decisions based on severely incomplete information we provide a model of unraveling in a one to one matching market without transfers its distinguishing feature is the gradual arrival of information about students that occurs over an extended period of time during which matches can be made in equilibrium the market spreads thinly over that period and employers attractiveness to students is uncorrelated with their worker s productivity our model connects previous seemingly unrelated models of unraveling and it highlights the implications of the two period assumption on which they rely our setting permits the analysis of information timing policies these are effective only if they provide a sudden and sufficiently large surge in information our main application is in the market for clerks to u s federal appellate courts a significant input into the efficiency of the justice system

dynamic labour force participation of married women and endogenous work experience this paper presents and estimates a dynamic model of married women s labour force participation and fertility in which the effect of work experience on wages is explicitly taken into account because current participation alters future potential earnings the investment return to work will be an important factor in the current work decision in any forward looking behavioural model the model is estimated using the national longitudinal surveys mature women s cohort we use the estimates of our model to predict changes in the lifecycle patterns of employment due to changes in schooling fertility husband s income and the magnitude of the experience effect on wages we find that although work experience increases the disutility of further work the effect is overwhelmed by the positive effect of experience on wages leading to persistence in the employment patterns of these women in addition we find that an increase in young children and in husband s income substantially reduces participation while increased schooling has a powerful positive impact on participation this paper presents an estimable structural dynamic model of married women s labour force participation and fertility in which wages are stochastic and work experience or cumulative participation is endogeneous the model is structural in the sense that the parameters which are estimated are contained in the fundamental relationships governing behaviour namely the utility function and the constraints the model is contained in the class of models which describe the life cycle capital accumulation process with endogeneous labour supply such as weiss 1972 and heckman 1976 it is closest in spirit to that of weiss and gronau 1981 1 the basic feature of their model and ours is that labour market participation affects future wages which then affects future participation the investment return to current work will necessarily be taken into account in any forward looking optimizing model as weiss and gronau note estimates of labour supply models have ignored the inherent behavioural dynamics associated with a positive wageexperience profile there is no adequate empirical treatment of the human capital investment dimension of the labour force participation decision in the literature heckman and willis 1977 have studied a sequential discrete choice model of the labour force participation of married women in a reduced form framework their work

school characteristics and teacher turnover assessing the role of preferences and opportunities job characteristics can affect worker turnover through their effect on utility and through their effect on outside job opportunities the aim of this study is to identify and estimate the roles of these two channels separately our method exploits information on job changes and relies on an augmented sample selection correction to illustrate our approach we use an exhaustive register of dutch primary school teachers and show a detailed picture of preferences for school characteristics we also find that the dependence between current and outside job attributes can affect turnover and thus the allocation of teachers across schools

time is money costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices abstract we explore whether and to what extent traders in a real world financial market where participants judgements are reportedly well calibrated are subject to duration misperception to achieve this we examine duration misperception in the horserace betting market we develop a two stage algorithm to predict horses winning probabilities that account for a duration related factor that is known to affect horses winning prospects the algorithm adapts survival analysis and combines it with the conditional logit model using a dataset of 4736 horseraces and the lifetime career statistics of the 53 295 horses running in these races we demonstrate that prices fail to discount fully information related to duration since a horse s last win we show that this failure is extremely costly since a betting strategy based on the predictions arising from the model shows substantial profits 932 5 percent and 16 27 percent with and without reinvestment of winnings respectively we discuss the important implications of duration neglect in the wider economy

if you pay peanuts do you get monkeys a cross country analysis of teacher pay and pupil performance why are teachers paid up to four times as much in some countries compared to others and does it matter specifically is the quality of teachers likely to be higher if they are paid higher up the income distribution in their own country and are pupil outcomes influenced by how well their teachers are paid this paper considers the determinants of teachers salaries across countries and examines the relationship between the real and relative level of teacher remuneration and the internationally comparable measured performance of secondary school pupils we use aggregate panel data on 39 countries published by the oecd to model this association our results suggest that recruiting higher ability individuals into teaching and permitting scope for quicker salary advancement will have a positive effect on pupil outcomes

machine replacement and the business cycle lumps and bumps this paper explores investment fluctuations due to discrete changes in a plant s capital stock the resulting aggregate investment dynamics are surprisingly rich reflecting the interaction between a replacement cycle the cross sectional distribution of the age of the capital stock and an aggregate shock using plant level data lumpy investment is procyclical and more likely for older capital further the predicted path of aggregate investment that neglects vintage effects tracks actual aggregate investment reasonably well however ignoring fluctuations in the cross sectional distribution of investment vintages can yield predictable nontrivial errors in forecasting changes in aggregate investment

a positive theory of the predatory state while the distinction between public and private goods is essential in developing a normative theory of non predatory states the focus of this article is on a positive theory of predatory states since the predatory relationship between the state and its subjects depends on the power of the state to grab or to appropriate coercively and the subject s ability to escape or hide the boundaries of the state are decided by the nature of the assets that can be taken more or less easily accordingly i will introduce a new distinction between captive and fugitive assets that positively captures the frontiers of a state space the us railroading in the nineteenth century provides an illustration regarding the explanatory power of an asset appropriating perspective of the state compared to a public goods approach

teacher pay and school productivity exploiting wage regulation abstract the impact of teacher pay on school productivity is a central concern for governments worldwide yet evidence is mixed in this paper we exploit a feature of teacher labour markets to determine the impact of teacher wages teacher wages are commonly set in a manner that results in flat wages across heterogeneous labour markets this creates an exogenous gap between the outside labour market and inside regulated wage for teachers we use the centralised wage regulation of teachers in england to examine the effect of pay on school performance we use data on over 3000 schools containing around 200 000 teachers who educate around half a million children per year we find that teachers respond to pay a ten percent shock to the wage gap between local labour market and teacher wages results in an average loss of around 2 in average school performance in the key exams taken at the end of compulsory schooling in england

electoral competition and special interest politics have fixed positions on some issues but vary their positions on others in order to attract votes and campaign contributions in this context we examine whether special interest groups are governed by an electoral motive or an influence in their campaign giving and how their contributions affect the equilibrium platforms we show that each party is induced to behave as if it were maximizing a weighted sum of the aggregate welfares of informed voters and members of special interest groups the party that is expected to win a majority of seats caters more to the special interests

unraveling in matching markets the authors use a two period matching model with initial uncertainty about productivities of participants to analyze incentives for early contracting or unraveling unraveling provides insurance in the absence of complete markets but causes inefficient assignments unraveling is more likely the smaller the applicant pool the smaller the proportion of more promising applicants and the greater the heterogeneity in the pool banning early contracts hurts firms and benefits less promising applicants the effects on more promising applicants depend on how the gains from early contracts are shared ex post buyouts eliminate inefficient assignments and more promising applicants always unravel copyright 1998 by american economic association

the economic determinants of young people s household formation the paper derives predictions about the impact of the price of housing young adults income and parental income on the probability that a young adult in the united kingdom lives apart from his her parents it shows that the predicted effect of the price of housing is intimately related to the price elasticity of housing demand it uses longitudinal data on a cohort of britons born in 1958 surveyed in the national child development study to estimate dynamic models of first departure from the parental home and particularly to estimate the impact of housing price on the timing and destination of first departure excerpt

a dynamic model of teacher labor supply the labor supply decisions of certified elementary and high school teachers are examined using data from a general longitudinal survey a significant decrease in the teaching participation rate tak

the influence of classroom characteristics on high school teacher turnover i introduction a number of authors have suggested that the u s will face a shortage of qualified teachers in the near future especially in the areas of math and science 1 school districts facing such a shortage could respond in a variety of ways for instance hiring standards could be lowered teachers could be asked to teach outside their areas of certification or funds permitting starting salaries could be increased in an effort to attract the most promising candidates still another option would be to raise teaching loads i e average class size or the number of classes taught thus making do with fewer teachers this option is particularly alluring in light of the fact that average class size has been falling rapidly in the u s over the last twenty years and yet no strong connection between smaller classes and increased student learning has been established 2 there is however a possible hidden cost that needs to be investigated before recommending such a course of action if teachers respond to larger or more frequent classes by quitting then a district that tries to solve its hiring problems in this fashion could simply be increasing its demand for new teachers this paper uses data from the new york state education department s personnel master file for the years 1979 to 1989 in order to investigate whether an increased teaching load affects the likelihood that a teacher will leave his or her district in order to obtain an unbiased sample of job lengths the sample is restricted to full time high school teachers who were newly hired in 1979 3 we estimate a discrete time hazard model in which teaching load is measured as the average class size taught by an individual the number of classes taught and the proportion of classes taught in the teacher s certified area in interpreting our results we pay special attention to whether the behavior of math and science teachers differs from that of other teachers this is an important issue because shortages of qualified teachers in these two areas are predicted to be especially acute ii background the market for teachers differs from a well functioning neoclassical labor market in that salaries are determined through a political process involving various levels of government the public and often teachers unions 4 if the demand for teachers increases as retirements and student enrollment increase then starting salaries cannot be counted on to quickly move to the market clearing level and thus a shortage of teachers becomes a possibility 5 few observers however believe that there will be an actual shortage of warm bodies the more likely scenario is that there will be a lack of teachers trained in specific areas and of high quality teachers in general see murnane et al 1991 1 2 given a limited budget what are the options available to a school district facing this type of shortage the district could settle for hiring lower quality teachers but this might be seen as an unnecessary measure with long term implications taken in response to what could be a temporary situation another option that has been suggested is to increase teacher workloads 6 whether this option is workable depends in part on the exit decisions of teachers a large number of empirical studies have investigated the determinants of teacher turnover however no work specifically directed toward capturing the effect of increased teaching responsibilities on turnover has been done 7 without knowing whether such an effect exists and what the magnitude of it might be informed policy decisions at the district level in response to a shortage of qualified teachers becomes impossible past studies have shown that the probability of a teacher leaving his or her job is high in the first few years after entering the profession falls after the third year 8 and again increases as the teacher nears retirement age murnane et al

assessing the efficiency of local open space provision abstract this paper tests the efficiency of local provision of land conservation i examine how housing prices which capitalize open space amenities and future tax obligations change after municipalities vote on referendums for conservation spending using a dynamic regression discontinuity based on voting outcomes results suggest that average housing prices increase about 0 68 1 12 for every 1000 per household of open space spending authorized which indicates inefficiency and underprovision of conservation i also examine tax capitalization and supply side explanations for estimated capitalization

the dynamics of teacher quality abstract an extensive literature finds that while teachers vary considerably in initial quality there are limited teacher quality dynamics except for the first few years of teaching teacher quality does not improve over the course of a teacher s career this study evaluates the importance of various modeling restrictions to the key findings of this literature using data covering all 5th grade public school teachers from the state of north carolina i replicate the findings of the previous literature using their restrictive experience assumptions however using an unrestricted experience model i find that for mathematics achievement there are high returns to later career teaching experience about twice as much dispersion in initial teacher quality as previously estimated and a pattern of negative selection where high quality teachers are more likely to exit

teacher mobility and merit pay evidence from a voluntary public award program abstract this paper analyzes the effect on teacher mobility of a program that rewards excellence in teaching practices in chile successful applicants receive a 6 annual wage increase for up to 10 years and an award that publicly recognizes their excellence the paper uses a regression discontinuity design to identify the causal effect of the public merit award the program does not alter transitions out of teaching however it increases the mobility of awardees within the school system this is consistent with the program providing a credible public signal of teacher quality

does it pay to pay teachers more evidence from texas abstract this study presents robust evidence on the relationship between teacher pay and turnover using detailed panel data from texas while controlling for changes in district and local labor market characteristics i estimate an overall turnover elasticity of 1 4 and show that the effect is largest for inexperienced teachers declines with experience and disappears around 19 years of experience combining these results with what we know about the relationship between teacher value added and experience i show that paying teachers more improves student achievement through higher retention rates the results also suggest that adopting a flat salary schedule may be a cheap way to improve student performance i find no evidence that pay effects vary by the teacher s gender or subject taught

the effect of educational attainment on welfare dependence evidence from canada abstract the impact of educational attainment on the duration of welfare spells is analysed using a unique data set derived from the administration of the social assistance program in canada over the period 1986 1993 the empirical analysis includes controls for demographic characteristics program parameters labour market conditions and unobserved individual characteristics it is found that that educational attainment has a much greater impact on the welfare exit rate for women than for men additionally the welfare exit rate for women is more sensitive to family status and program benefits but less sensitive to the unemployment rate relative to that for men

recruiting and retaining teachers in the uk an analysis of graduate occupation choice from the 1960s to the 1990s this paper examines the market for teachers in the uk from 1960 to 2002 using six graduate cohort data sets we find that while there is no strong evidence that teachers are underpaid the relative wages in teaching compared with alternative professions have a significant impact on the likelihood of graduates choosing to teach this wage effect is strongest at times of low relative teachers wages or following a period of decline in those wages it is also strongest for those individuals who have more recently graduated and for men

compensation policies and teacher decisions a dynamic discrete choice framework with a flexible structure for unobserved heterogeneity is used to model the occupational decisions of individuals who are certified to teach in elementary and secondary schools the model is estimated using data from the national longitudinal study of the high school class of 1972 and is used to examine the effects of possible changes in the compensation policy for teachers

does raising the principal s wage improve the school s outcomes quasi experimental evidence from an unusual policy experiment in israel this paper reports estimates of the causal effects of a 50 percent increase in the salary of headmasters of high schools in israel the results suggest that the program led to significant improvements in twelfth grade students academic achievements however the effect was relatively modest comprising increases of about 5 10 percent in the school mean matriculation rate average score and number of subjects and credit units taken in matriculation programs based on these results and the lack of evidence regarding the effect of increasing teachers salary it seems that priority should be given to paying higher wages to school principals

career paths and quit decisions evidence from teaching conventional models predict that workers consider employment opportunities and monetary rewards expected over their lifetimes when making current period decisions such as whether to quit a job this article tests the hypothesis that later career opportunities affect quit decisions by examining the relationship between teaching and school administration evidence on the extent to which administrative positions are available to teachers and the salary premia associated with them is presented discrete time logit hazard models of teacher quits estimated using data from new york state provide some support for the hypothesis though the magnitudes of the estimated effects are small

do public schools hire the best applicants despite a surplus of candidates for most teaching jobs a strong academic record does little for an applicants job prospects this does not appear to result from lukewarm interest on the part of such applicants or choosiness about the positions they accept administrators lack of interest in these candidates may reflect the weakness of competitive pressures in public education policies intended to improve teacher quality need to consider incentives on both the demand and supply sides of the market

consolidation by merger the uk beer market this paper examines the determinants of market structure in the uk brewing industry over 1949 1969 sutton sunk costs and market structure price competition advertising and the evolution of concentration 1991 points to technology and advertising races as two key drivers of market concentration this study uses an own built longitudinal data set of the population of firms and breweries and reveals the importance of institutional factors in explaining the dynamics of market structure the practice of tying outlets to brewers and legal restrictions on opening retail outlets together with a permissive policy towards mergers made acquisition of medium sized firms and brewery closure shortly after acquisition the main driving mechanism towards industry consolidation during this period the number of firms and plants fell sharply by 74 and 60 respectively and production rose by about 25 with no firm entry and just one new brewery opening as a result concentration increased and the market transformed from a highly fragmented one into a stable oligopoly

leaving teaching in the uk a duration analysis in this paper the authors analyze the decision by teachers to leave the profession their results affirm the importance of relative earnings in the tenure and turnover decisions of teachers the econometric modeling approach used yields important insights into the appropriateness of adopting a flexible semiparametric specification of the duration dependence structure and of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution in duration models copyright 1995 by royal economic society

teacher mobility responses to wage changes evidence from a quasi natural experiment low mobility responses to wage changes imply rents associated with existing employment relationships for example continued employment after a wage cut all else equal reflects rents in the hand of the worker at the outset and symmetrically voluntary quits after a

college selectivity and earnings this article shows that college performance and selectivity have significant effects on earnings it suggests that work that does not include college performance overstates the effect of college se