exchange rate pass through in u s manufacturing industries this paper studies exchange rate pass through in u s manufacturing industries and its cross sectional variation through an adapted dixit stiglitz model of product differentiation the paper predicts that pass through is positively related to the degree of product differentiation and inversely related to the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output empirical estimates of the pass through elasticities show that pass through is incomplete and varies across industries the degree of pass through is found to be positively correlated to different proxies for product differentiation and negatively to a proxy for the elasticity of marginal cost

the measurement and trend of inequality comment in a recent article in this review morton paglin proposes a measure of concentration which he claims will correct the gini ratio for overstatement in populations where each individual may be expected to vary his income or wealth over his life cycle the paglin measure suggests that the gini ratio overstates income concentration in the united states by a third and does not reveal a 23 percent decline in concentration which has occurred between 1947 and 1972 these results are based on an improper decomposition of the gini ratio in this note i decompose the gini ratio to derive the paglin measure it is shown to correct for neither demographic nor life cycle income effects and to understate intracohort income or wealth inequality if properly normalized the paglin measure shows that the gini overstates u s income concentration by 7 percent or less and indicates a decline in u s interfamily income concentration of less than 12 percent four percentage points of this decline are the result of demographic change while less than 7 points comparable to the 5 percent decline of the gini are the result of decreased income concentration within cohorts of family heads decomposition further reveals major changes in the division of income among cohorts and in concentration of income within cohorts these changes compensate each other in the paglin measure the use of which as a measure of income or wealth concentration is not recommended the gini concentration ratio

labour supply effects of unemployment insurance benefits data from the 1976 wave of the panel study of income dynamics are employed to study the effect of unemployment insurance ui benefits on weeks worked ols regressions to model labour supply behaviour are estimated for both recipients and nonrecipients of ui benefits we find some inteesting differences between the labour supply behaviour of ui recipients and nonrecipients

turnover in the afdc population an event history analysis the control group of families with female heads from the denver income maintenance experiment is utilized in this analysis of afdc turnover this study uses event history techniques a methodology that is more appropriate for exploring welfare dynamics than the logit approach of earlier work increases in age and the wage have significant negative effects on the rate of entering afdc a higher guarantee raises this rate significantly age and the guarantee have significant effects with opposite signs on the exit rate other variables are not systematically related to turnover the estimates are applied to projected changes in lengths of time spent on and off afdc and in afdc caseloads due to changes in the explanatory variables

modeling exchange rate passthrough after large devaluations large devaluations are generally associated with large declines in real exchange rates burstein eichenbaum and rebelo 2005 argue that the primary force causing these declines is often the slow adjustment in the price of nontradable goods and services we develop a model which embodies two complementary forces that account for the large declines in the real exchange rate that occur in the aftermath of large devaluations the first force is sticky nontradable goods prices instead of simply assuming that nontradable goods prices are sticky we develop conditions under which this phenomenon can emerge as an equilibrium outcome the second force is the impact of real shocks that often accompany large devaluations these real shocks lead to a decline in the price of nontradable goods relative to traded goods we argue that sticky nontradable goods prices generally play an important role in explaining post devaluation movements in real exchange rates however there are cases in which sticky nontradable goods prices are not sustainable as an equilibrium phenomenon in these cases real shocks are the primary driver of real exchange rate movements j e l classification f31

exchange rate pass through in developing and emerging markets a survey of conceptual methodological and policy issues and selected empirical findings abstractglobal integration has increased the international linkages of financial markets for emerging market countries a key channel for the international transmission of inflation and economic cycles is from exchange rate movements to domestic prices known as exchange rate pass through erpt this article reviews the conceptual methodological and policy issues connected with erpt in emerging market and developing countries and critically surveys selected empirical studies a key contribution is to categorise and compare the heterogeneous methodologies used to extract erpt measures in the empirical literature single equation models and systems methods are contrasted frequent misspecifications that produce unreliable erpt estimates are highlighted the discerning policy maker needs to ascertain by which methods erpt measures were calculated the controls and restrictions applied and the time frame and stability of the estimates

us federal redistributive income policies the purpose of this paper is to present a statiscial model of inequality that allows us to analyse simultaneously the impact of several major redistributive expenditure policies as well as analysing the impact of income taxation on inequality the paper includes multivariate exogeeity tests to determine whether the policies have caused the observed income distribution or if there is feedback i e inequality in the distribution has lead to enhanced or diminished redistributive policies the direction of causality for these policies has not to ourr knowledge been previously examined this paper examines the usual redistributive vehicles of transfer payments social security medicare and medicaid as well as analysing the impact of the personal income tax system on inequality using time series analysis we can allow for lagged effects of these policies as well as current period effects this lagged effects specification may be sugggestive of behavioural responses to policy changes

exchange rate pass through to consumer prices in south africa evidence from micro data abstracta sizeable literature examines exchange rate pass through to disaggregated import prices but few micro studies focus on consumer prices this article explores exchange rate pass through to consumer prices in south africa for 2002 2007 using a unique data set of highly disaggregated data at the product and outlet level the empirical approach allows pass through to be calculated over various horizons for different goods and services the heterogeneity of pass through for food sub components is considerable switches between import and export parity pricing of maize are found significant for five out of ten food sub components using actual weights from the cpi basket overall pass through to the almost 63 per cent of the cpi covered is about 30 per cent after two years and higher for food

welfare dependence and recidivism in an era of welfare reform this study examines the dynamics of welfare programme participation during the initial period 1993 1995 of programme reforms at the state level in iowa the programme changes for the state were remarkably similar to the national reforms implemented in the usa in 1996 analysis of the family investment program fip participation over the programme s first two years show that on average recipients stayed fewer months in the second year compared with the first although a relatively large share of participants 36 stayed on for the full two years fixed effect and semiparametric duration models are used to examine welfare dependence and recidivism respectively results indicate that income from wages and child support are significant factors in reducing welfare participation child support and wage income are crucial in determining the chances of exiting and of staying off the programme especially during the early months of the exit

means testing versus universal provision in poverty alleviation programs this paper contrasts the use of means tested and universal schemes in the alleviation of poverty using a class of poverty measures the authors illustrate the trade off from the fact that means testing is costly to both the government and the claimant while universal provision entails a leakage to the nonpoor the paper provides numerical as well as analytical results copyright 1990 by the london school of economics and political science

the probability of dependence on public assistance despite almost incessant discussion of welfare reform see levy 1978 and department of health and social security 1978 traditional systems of income support and their associated problems remain largely intact the most intractable difficulty has been the conflict between the desire to reduce costs by concentrating benefits on the poorest families and the desire to preserve work incentives by not withdrawing benefits too rapidly if a recipient family starts earning hanoch and honig 1978 show that the incentive effect of income support schemes is theoretically ambiguous levy 1979 investigates the labour supply issue empirically this paper looks at the whole issue of welfare dependency using data on american families receiving benefits under the largest scheme of public assistance aid to families with dependent children afdc we concentrate on an important group of poor families those without fathers and examine in particular the following issues a the effectiveness of afdc in selecting the very poorest families for the largest benefits b the extent to which the number of recipients is influenced by the generosity of benefits and the implicit tax on earnings c the extent to which recipients take advantage of the opportunity to supplement benefits with earnings d whether the implicit tax on earnings discourages families from working e whether the disproportionate share of blacks among recipients reflects a difference in attitudes about work and welfare between blacks and whites or whether it is explained by the adverse circumstances of blacks four different levels of dependence are considered none partial i e benefits less than earnings substantial i e benefits more than earnings and total the probability of each level of dependence is taken as a function of family characteristics including earning potential and of the characteristics of the afdc system section i describes a theory of family behaviour based on the assumption that observed differences in the behaviour of apparently identical families reflect an underlying distribution of unobserved differences section ii discusses the statistical method used to estimate the probabilities a straightforward generalization of logit analysis section iii presents and interprets the statistical results and section iv summarizes our answers to the five issues posed above two comments on the choice and use of the data should be made before proceeding the choice of data for 1967 was influenced not only by the availability of two surveys the survey of economic opportunity and a survey of afdc recipients but also by the fact that 1967 was the last year in which afdc was a relatively pure scheme subsequent legislation imposed constraints on the extent to which states could withdraw benefits as recipients incomes rose more recently the explosion in the size of the food stamp programme still very small in

incentive effects of the u s welfare system a review the author would like to acknowledge support for prior work on this topic from the u s department of health and human services and helpful comments from three anonymous referees rebecca blank howard chernick john fitzgerald irwin garfinkel peter gottschalk edward gramlich david greenberg judith gueron james heckman v joseph hotz robert hutchens michael keane frank levy larry mead michael murray robert plotnick anuradha rangarajan philip robins howard rolston jeffrey smith and daniel weinberg all opinions and errors are those of the author alone

exchange rate pass through in south africa panel evidence from individual goods and services abstract this study estimates pass through for south africa using samples of final goods and services and homogenous imports estimated pass through to consumer goods prices is low roughly 16 per cent in the two years following an exchange rate change surprisingly it is somewhat higher for services deviations from long run ppp appear to disappear relatively quickly with a half life of about 16 months for imports pass through estimates are much higher averaging around 60 per cent but with wide source country variation finally there is virtually no support for a simple linear trend change in either pass through or in reversion to ppp during the sample

assessing empirical approaches for analyzing taxes and labor supply recent surveys on the labor supply responses of men document a divergence in the estimates of substitution and income effects obtained using various estimation approaches generally studies accounting for nonlinear tax schedules in a static setting via a piecewise linear approach produce estimates that typically imply higher substitution and lower income responses than are suggested by empirical work applying other approaches this paper demonstrates that maximum likelihood estimation of a consumer choice problem with nonlinear budget sets implicitly relies on the satisfaction of inequality constraints that translate into behaviorally meaningful restrictions these constraints arise not as a consequence of economic theory but instead as a requirement to create a properly defined statistical model in the analysis of piecewise linear budget sets the implicit constraints required by maximum likelihood in estimation amount to imposition of slutsky conditions at all wage income combinations associated with kink points in the analysis of differentiable budget sets the tacit constraints invoked by maximum likelihood also involve inequality restrictions on slutsky terms the empirical work presented in this study supports the contention that these implicit constraints play a major role in explaining the discrepancies in estimates found in the literature on men s labor supply

stagnation or transformation of a dual economy through endogenous productivity growth a growth model is developed for an open dual economy the economy expands owing to a higher growth rate of labour productivity in the modern sector through the kaldor verdoorn channel and higher effective demand through a keynesian channel the model incorporates a retardation mechanism affecting the slopes of productivity and output growth schedules as labour surplus and economies of scale diminish a wage led or profit led regime and initial conditions may give rise to de industrialization in terms of both output and employment a growth trap sustaining a situation of structural heterogeneity or sustainable employment and adequate output and productivity growth

precautionary savings a panel study theoretical literature shows that income uncertainty boosts saving yet empirical work is incomplete i test for the precautionary motive for saving using panel data knowing this motive s size is important for gauging the responsiveness of saving to government programs that reduce uncertainty and for comparison to other motives such as bequests most empirical studies of precautionary saving use either aggregate time series or cross sectional data which cannot capture the effects of individual income uncertainty i derive measures of total permanent and transitory income uncertainty from panel data the national longitudinal survey and find a strong precautionary motive a doubling of uncertainty increases the ratio of wealth to permanent income by 29

the agenda for growth theory a different point of view it is argued here that the basic assumptions of neoclassical growth theory inherently limit the ability of models within that theory to cast light on economic growth as we have experienced it this holds for the new growth theory as well as the older growth theory of the 1950s and 190js it is proposed that to make real headway with understanding economic growth a growth theory needs the following elements 1 the ability to treat technological advance as an essentially disequilibrium process 2 to incorporate a theory of the firm in which firm capabilities and differences across firms are central elements and 3 to incorporate into the theory a richer body of institutions than currently are treated in standard growth theory including at the least universities copyright 1998 by oxford university press

price discrimination by u s and german exporters the insensitivity of the u s trade balance to the sharp depreciation of the dollar in the past three years has revived interest in the relationship between exchange rates and the trade balance a central issue in most analyses of the relation between the current account and the exchange rate concerns the price adjustment process the simple integrated competitive market model predicts that local currency prices should change in proportion to the nominal exchange rate for a country too small to influence world prices the relationship between local currency import prices and exchange rates has been referred to as the pass through relationship in the empirical literature in international economics if the proportional relationship between import prices and exchange rates holds pass through is said to be complete accounts of recent u s experience cite the failure of dollar prices of imported goods to rise in proportion to exchange rates i e incomplete pass through as an important factor in explaining the persistence of the trade deficit unfortunately observations on pass through alone provide limited insight into the behavior of markets since incomplete pass through is consistent with at least two fundamentally different paradigms one is the standard competitive model of trade in which the law of one price holds but exchange rate fluctuations are associated with large changes in import demand due to other factors for example if dollar appreciation is correlated with increases in world demand and industry marginal cost is increasing then pass through will be less than complete the other is an imperfectly competitive model in which exporters are capable of price discriminating across destination markets a phenomenon paul krugman 1987 has labeled pricing to market in this model incomplete pass through is typically associated with fluctuations in the markup of price over marginal cost on exports 2 these fluctuations in markups are believed to be countryspecific they do not reflect the behavior of prices to other export destinations both models are plausible explanations of recent u s experience unfortunately it is impossible to distinguish between these competing models using only information on import prices and exchange rates for a single country in order to distinguish between the competing models an empirical analysis of goods prices and exchange rates must be capable of measuring either marginal cost or the markup over marginal cost either of these tasks poses formidable empirical problems much of the empirical literature in industrial organization has been concerned with precisely these issues since markups are an important measure of the competitiveness of industries

a measure of horizontal inequity politicians academicians and the general public alike have perceived that the status quo tax and transfer legislation creates inequities among living units tax laws create numerous situations in which living units with seemingly equal abilities to pay are taxed quite different amounts state by state differences in welfare eligibility rules benefit schedules and administrative procedures the general unavailability of cash welfare to childless nonaged healthy couples and single individuals and other features of transfer programs similarly provide vastly different levels of income support to units with equal needs advocates of major tax and welfare reform have marshalled such evidence into a central argument in favor of their proposals while there is wide agreement that the process of redistributing incomes abounds with inequities there have been few attempts to quantify their extent 2 this paper develops a measure of horizontal inequity and illustrates its use section ii discusses the concept of horizontal equity then builds upon familiar lorenz curve gini coefficient analysis to derive the inequity index the third part considers some problems of implementing the measure and illustrates it section iv provides a short conclusion

work and welfare as determinants of female poverty and household headship this paper formulates and estimates a model of the determinants of female household headship headship responds to variations in the levels of well being a woman can expect if she marries or if she heads her own household the authors measure the opportunity cost of female headship and the effects of welfare benefits and womens work in the market on female headship and poverty they find that if welfare benefits were reduced there would be small reductions in the proportion of women heading households for whites and nonwhites but a substantial increase in poverty for nonwhites they also find that wives work in the market reduces poverty and female headship for nonwhites and reduces poverty but increases headship for whites the study is based on 1975 u s data excerpt

low inflation pass through and the pricing power of firms abstract recently there has been a significant decline in the degree to which firms pass through changes in costs to prices a decline that is frequently characterized as a reduction in the pricing power of firms the decline appears to be associated with the decline in inflation in many countries the decline has important implications for monetary policy because it affects both forecasts of inflation and the effects of changes in monetary policy on inflation some have argued that the decline in pricing power helped to keep inflation low in the face of apparently strong demand pressures in the united states in the late 1990s this paper puts forth the view that the decline in pass through or pricing power is due to the low inflation environment that has recently been achieved in many countries first a microeconomic model of price setting is used to show that lower pass through is caused by lower perceived persistence of cost changes evidence is then presented showing that inflation is positively correlated with persistence of inflation suggesting that the low inflation itself has caused the low pass through an economy wide model consistent with the micromodel is then presented to illustrate how such changes in pricing power affect output and inflation dynamics in favorable ways but can disappear quickly if monetary policy and expectations change

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

productivity across industries and countries time series theory and evidence the authors examine whether convergence in aggregate productivity is also occurring at the industry level in fourteen oecd countries from 1970 to 1987 using both cross section and time series methods they find convergence in some sectors such as services however surprisingly the authors find that convergence does not hold for the manufacturing sector decomposing aggregate convergence into industry productivity gains and changing sectoral shares of output they find the service sector to be responsible for the bulk of cross country convergence to the united states the authors develop a new result on the asymptotic normality of panel unit root estimators to formally test within sector convergence copyright 1996 by mit press

how income transfer programs affect work savings and the income distribution a critical review for helpful comments on earlier drafts we thank without implicating moses abramovitz yves balcer john bishop alan blinder richard burkhauser michael darby irwin garfinkel alan gustman daniel hamermesh martin holmer george jakubson robert lampman paul menchik robert moffitt michael murray joseph quinn timothy smeeding eugene smolensky barbara wolfe and two anonymous referees

local labor markets and welfare spells do demand conditions matter this paper examines the impact of changes in labor market conditions on participation in the aid to families with dependent children afdc program in california transitions off welfare and transi

ppp strikes back aggregation and the real exchange rate we show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the ppp puzzle we prove that the aggregate real exchange rate is persistent because its components have heterogeneous dynamics established time series and panel methods fail to control for this using eurostat data we find that when heterogeneity is taken into account the estimated persistence of real exchange rates falls dramatically its half life for instance may fall to as low as eleven months significantly below the consensus view of three to five years

cash welfare as a consumption smoothing mechanism for divorced mothers abstract while there has been considerable research on the disincentive effects of cash welfare under the aid to families with dependent children afdc program there is little evidence on the benefits of the program for single mothers and their children one potential benefit of this program is that it provides short run consumption insurance for women at the point that they become single mothers this is only true however to the extent that the program is not crowding out other sources of support such as own savings labor supply or transfers from others i assess the importance of this insurance mechanism by measuring the extent to which afdc smooths the consumption of women who transition to single motherhood through marital dissolution i use longitudinal data on family structure and consumption expenditures on food and housing from the panel study of income dynamics psid matched to information on the welfare benefits available in each state and year over the 1968 1985 period i find that raising potential benefits by one dollar raises the food and housing consumption of women who get divorced and their families by 28 cents this estimate implies that for each dollar of afdc received by this population their consumption of these categories of goods rises by up to 51 cents this is roughly the share of food and housing in the consumption bundle of divorced mothers and their families suggesting little crowdout of other sources of support

a comparison of the labor supply findings from the four negative income tax experiments between 1968 and 1982 the united states federal government sponsored four negative income tax experiments this paper provides a set of consensus estimates of the labor supply responses to these experiments it is found that despite the wide range of treatments and evaluation methodologies the results are remarkably consistent on average husbands reduced labor supply by about the equivalent of two weeks of full time employment wives and single female heads reduced labor supply by about the equivalent of three weeks of full time employment youth reduced labor supply by about the equivalent of four weeks of full time employment estimated income and substitution effects are quite similar to those obtained from nonexperimental studies

the effect of family planning programs on the fertility of welfare recipients evidence from medicaid claims this paper explores the effectiveness of family planning fp services subsidized by the medicaid program in lowering the fertility of female welfare recipients previous studies used single equation estimates and produced conflicting and sometimes confounding results thus this study employed a bivariate probit model to estimate the effect of contraceptive acceptance on the individuals probability of giving birth without the bias that may result from single equation estimates a unique data set created from maryland medicaid claims records was also used results suggest that medicaid fp programs are much more effective at lowering fertility than indicated by previous studies using single equation estimates

an economic model of welfare stigma perhaps the most basic assumption of the economic theory of consumer demand is that more is better than less virtually all of the major propositions of consumer theory can in a certain sense be derived from the assumption that goods are good interestingly however this tenet seems to be violated by the behavior of many individuals in the low income population for many turn out to be eligible for a positive welfare benefit but do not in fact join the welfare rolls for example it has been estimated that in 1970 only about 69 percent of the families eligible for afdc aid to families with dependent children participated in the program see richard michel 1980 the corresponding percentage for afdc u the program for which families with an unemployed male are eligible was only 43 percent and the participation rate in the food stamp program was only 38 percent see maurice mcdonald 1977 this phenomenon has puzzled many investigators because such individuals do not locate on the boundaries of their budget sets consequently most investigators ignore the problem when studying the effects of welfare programs on behavior in this paper this seemingly irrational rejection of an increase in income is modeled as resulting from welfare stigma that is from disutility arising from participation in a welfare program per se 1 the existence of stigma has been amply documented in the sociological literature patrick horan and patricia austin 1974 lee rainwater 1979 where interviews of recipients have often uncovered feelings of lack of self respect and negative self characterizations from participation in welfare nevertheless this phenomenon has not been modeled and many questions consequently remain when is the disutility of participation strong enough to prevent participation shouldn t we expect individuals to weigh the disutility of participation against the potential benefit in their decisions what is the elasticity of participation with respect to the potential benefit also in a slightly different vein how are the work disincentives of welfare affected by stigma these questions have been given scant attention by economists yet they are crucial for our ability to predict the impact of various welfare programs on the lowincome population here these questions are addressed by modeling nonparticipation as a utility maximizing decision the model is developed and estimated for the afdc program 2 the model posits an individual utility function containing not just disposable income but

does unemployment compensation affect unemployment duration abstract we use a flexible hazard rate model with unrestricted spell duration and calendar timeeffects to analyse a dataset including all norwegian unemployment spells during the1990 s the dataset provides a unique access to conditionally independent variation inunemployment compensation we find that a marginal increase in compensation re duces the escape rate from unemployment significantly irrespective of business cycleconditions and spell duration the escape rate rises sharply in the months just prior tobenefit exhaustion while men are more responsive than women with respect to mar ginal changes in compensation women are most responsive with respect to benefitexhaustion keywords unemployment spells business cycles unemployment compensation non parametric duration analysis jel classification c41 j64 the ragnar frisch centre for economic research oslo we wish to thank the re search council of norway for financial support and christian brinck harald goldstein costas meghir espen moen steinar strom rolf aaberge and three anonomyous referees for helpful comments cor respondence to knut roed the ragnar frisch centre for economic research gaustadalleen 21 0349oslo norway e mail knut roed frisch uio no

exchange rate pass through evidence from aggregate japanese exports the pass through of exchange rate changes to prices has been the subject of both theoretical and empirical investigations much of the recent interest in pass through was stimulated by the unprecedented movements in the u s dollar during the 1980s and by the potential for these movements to have lasting consequences on the domestic economy still unresolved in these studies is whether pass through to the u s market has declined over the past decade and if so why possible explanations include e g a growing dependence on imports changes in the structure of competition in the u s market or even unfair practices by foreign firms this issue is crucial to evaluating the long term effects of recent movements in u s dollar exchange rates this paper seeks to shed light on these issues indirectly by focusing on the stability of pass through in aggregate japanese exports japan is an obvious case study both because of its increasing presence in world trade and because of the continuing concern expressed frequently in the popular press over the large and persistent bilateral trade imbalances between japan and her major trading partners especially the u s two general criticisms of empirical studies in this area are the poor quality of the data analyzed and the lack of formal justification for the empirical modeling strategies employed these problems are addressed in this study in two ways first the data set used represents a significant improvement over those employed in other aggregate analyses this data from the bank of japan is unique because it is available on a monthly basis and because export prices as opposed to unit values are reported in both domestic and contractual currencies thus the exchange rate measure this study uses corresponds exactly to the export bundle that is we do not use the trade weighted exchange rate index commonly employed in addition to aggregate export price data this data set also contains six sector specific price indexes which permits a comparison of aggregate results with those at the sector or industry level second the problem of dynamic specification is addressed by estimating each equation in error correction form this methodology has been advocated as a means of avoiding illusory

making inferences from controlled income maintenance experiments nationally this paper addresses a question whose answer is essential for interpreting the results of such experiments if an experiment of limited duration is conducted under ideal conditions what can be inferred from the experimental results about behavior in a world where nit is adopted permanently by ideal conditions we mean that a individuals or households 2 in the experiment are conventional utility maximizers given the structure of the experiment and b the experiment is sufficiently well designed to permit the differential responses of individuals to be identified 3 the

labor supply response to welfare programs a dynamic analysis previous static analyses of the work disincentive effects of welfare programs are extended to a dynamic context using a sample of continuous longitudinal labor market histories estimates are derived for welfare nonwelfare differences in labor market flows among the states of employment unemployment and nonparticipation the estimates are used to identify the main sources of the lower employment and labor force participation rates and higher unemployment rate of welfare recipients the findings indicate that welfare programs have substantial effects on virtually every labor market transition examined but that the primary source of the static work disincentive effect is slower entry into employment

is cumulative growth in manufacturing productivity slowing down in the eu12 regions the cumulative causation in the relation between labour productivity and output growth known as verdoorn s law is empirically tested using data from 109 eu12 regions during the period 1977 2005 several specifications of verdoorn s law are put forward in this paper which attribute the process of cumulative causation to a series of factors including manufacturing agglomeration spatial interaction and responses to the problems of growth the findings suggest that although cumulative causation holds over this period the slowdown of its pace is nonetheless apparent post 1992 revisions in responses e g policy along with further research are thus recommended the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved

welfare the earned income tax credit and the labor supply of single mothers during 1984 1996 welfare and tax policy were changed to encourage work by single mothers the earned income tax credit was expanded welfare benets were cut welfare time limits were added and welfare cases were terminated medicaid for the working poor was expanded as were training programs and child care during this same time period there were unprecedented increases in the employment and hours of single mothers we show that a large share of the increase in work by single mothers can be attributed to the eitc and other tax changes with smaller shares for welfare benet cuts welfare waivers training programs and child care programs

pension wealth and household savings tests of robustness abstract a substantial literature exists on the impact of pension schemes both public and private on the level of household saving yet there is no clear consensus on the impact of pensions on private saving in this paper we show how beliefs about this displacement effect are modified by prior beliefs both about variables which might be relevant in an equation for private savings and about the magnitude of the displacement effect using data for 8279 canadian households and estimates of pension wealth both private and social security which we construct for each household in the sample the estimated displacement effects are found to be relatively robust with respect to both types of prior belief

manufacturing output employment and real wages in the 1980s labour s loss until the century s end during the 1980s most developing countries experienced sharp declines in manufacturing output and real wages whilst their manufacturing sectors were supposedly restructured or made more competitive by having to confront market forces this article examines the extent to which macroeconomic adjustment and industrial restructuring policies succeeded in achieving their objectives

analyzing the length of welfare spells abstract this paper studies the determinants of the length of individual spells of welfare focusing on how the length of a spell affects the probability of its termination the analysis utilizes six years of monthly data on time spent in the afdc program among female household heads a variety of duration dependence models are estimated monthly afdc participation does not show strong evidence of duration dependence two distinct groups appear to utilize welfare one with a very low and constant probability of leaving welfare and a second group which is more affected by time on the program

a prism into the ppp puzzles the micro foundations of big mac real exchange rates we match big mac prices with prices of its ingredients as a unique prism to study real exchange rates rers this approach has several advantages first the levels of the big mac rer can be measured meaningfully second as the exact composition of a big mac is known the contributions of its tradable and non tradable components can be estimated relatively precisely third the dynamics of the rer can be studied in a setting free of several biases inherent in cpi based rers finally a large cross country dimension allows us to overturn the engel result on what drives rers in most economies the exchange rate is the single most important relative price one that potentially feeds back into a large range of transactions obstfeld and rogoff 2000

female labor supply with a discontinuous nonconvex budget constraint incorporation of a part time full time wage differential this paper incorporates the well documented part time full time wage differential into an empirical labor supply model with both a heterogeneity and a random error term and estimates that model fo

in kind transfers cash grants and the supply of labour abstract this paper corrects the notion that somehow benefits given in kind interfere less with the work leisure choice than cash grants of equivalent monetary value in a simple model the analysis proves that the true effect depends on the extent of the in kind transfer and the substitutability of the good in question with leisure

exchange rate pass through to import prices and monetary policy in south africa abstractunderstanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses this article examines exchange rate pass through to the monthly import price index in south africa during 1980 2009 short horizon pass through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems johansen models controlling for both domestic and foreign costs average pass through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months and in the long run from the johansen analysis including feedback effects is about 55 per cent there is evidence of slower pass through under inflation targeting pass through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry with greater pass through occurring for small appreciations

public transfers family socioeconomic traits and the job search behavior of the unemployed evidence from puerto rico abstract this paper explores the theoretical and empirical associations between the job search efforts of the unemployed and the socioeconomic characteristics of the family it takes as a point of reference that certain supply side phenomena may contribute to puerto rico s high open unemployment rate the statistical analyses carried out indicate that there does exist what can be labeled luxury unemployment in other words government provided transfer payments generate disincentive effects with respect to the job market behavior of the unemployed moreover the dependency status of the individual within the family group also leads to lower job search effort

sectoral regularities of productivity growth in developing countries a kaldorian interpretation this paper provides a kaldorian interpretation for empirical regularities of product ivity growth at the sectoral level of the economy the statistical evidence is based on a dataset drawn from internationally compatible time series for employment and value added in 30 developing countries based on novel non linear statistical techniques the findings show i a regular pattern of positive sectoral employment elasticities with respect to output growth ii robust differences across sectors in the magnitude of the employment elasticities and iii employment elasticities for all sectors that are signifi cantly less than unity suggesting strong evidence for increasing returns at the sector level of the economy

price discrimination and markups in export markets abstract imperfect competition in international markets is one of the key explanations for why prices of similar goods might differ among destination countries this paper develops an empirical model to examine the presence of price discrimination stemming from imperfect competition in the international market for a country s exports the model is used to examine the export behavior of taiwanese exporters of footwear the generalized supply relation allows identification of deviations from competitive pricing in each export market in addition the model provides insights into the extent of exchange rate pass through finally the model is modified in order to estimate the effect of the voluntary export restraint imposed in the u s on footwear imports from taiwan

replacement income duration of unemployment and the migration of unemployed prime age males the relationship between the interstate migration of unemployed males of prime working age i e 25 44 years of age the level of unemployment replacement income and the duration of unemployment spells is addressed through the use of a relatively untapped data source the us census s survey of income and program participation sipp the rich set of details that are provided in this database allows a more precise empirical analysis of the above relationships than has been possible with psid cps and other previously used databases by restricting the sample to a relatively homogeneous segment of the work force its is possible to isolate better the effects of unemployment replacement income and job search duration on the migration decision of unemployed workers without the confounding effects of the variety of demographic factors that previous studies have shown to influence labour force migration the results suggest that for unemployed prime working age males the probability of migration is negativel

a comparison of the effect of welfare programme features on welfare participation one and two parent families the effect of welfare programme characteristics on the decision to enter the welfare system is modelled as a binary discrete choice latent variable model dependent upon an underlying index function the two chief classes of welfare beneficiaries in the us welfare system are analysed two parent families and single female headed families the data set is a large recent non experimental multiyear cross sectional pooled data set derived from the us census bureaus current population survey behavioural impacts from a range of economic variables are consistent in sign with predictions made by economic theory newly estimated comprehensive descriptive statistics of the entire welfare system for both single female household heads and married couples with children are employed to characterize the welfare system statistically significant estimates of substantial magnitude are obtained for the impacts on welfare participation for the welfare guarantee level the effective tax rate on earned income and the effec

jobless growth in india an investigation this paper investigates the relationship between output growth and employment growth in india for the period 1978 2010 at the aggregate and sectoral levels using a kaldorian framework of endogenous productivity growth we find that kaldor verdoorn effects in the economy have become more predominant over time especially in the post reform 1994 2010 period our estimated kaldor verdoorn coefficients measured as the employment elasticity of output growth for both formal sector and total employment have dropped dramatically over time suggesting that india has leapfrogged into a high productivity regime without the broad based expansion of labour intensive production that has been characteristic of fast growing economies in east asia we examine some explanations for why these kaldor verdoorn effects have become pronounced over time and are not convinced that wage pressure has been one of the reasons a shift in the composition of demand towards higher productivity sectors however does appear to be an important part of the explanation we also find mixed evidence that forces of international competition have generated pressures to adopt more capital intensive techniques of production

exchange rate pass through when market share matters the authors investigate the pass through from exchange rates to import prices when firms future demands depend on their current market shares they show that profit maximizing foreign firms may either raise or lower their dollar export prices when the dollar appreciates temporarily i e the pass through may be perverse and that current import prices may be more sensitive to expected future exchange rates than to current exchange rates they present evidence that suggests the behavior of expected future exchange rates may provide a clue to the puzzling recent behavior of u s import prices copyright 1989 by american economic association

american federalism welfare policy and residential choices the relationship between welfare benefit levels and the residential choices of the poor raises two issues for federalism in the united states do state benefit levels affect the residential choices of the poor do residential choices of the poor affect the level at which a state sets its benefit levels empirical studies have seldom studied the interconnection between these two issues this research estimates simultaneously the mutual effects of welfare benefits and poverty rates while controlling for other economic and political variables when benefit levels become high the size of the poverty population increases conversely when poverty rates become high benefit levels are cut the findings are consistent with the claim that state determined benefit levels distort policy and residential choices

should social security benefits be means tested social security retirement benefits distort the saving decisions of workers who are rational enough to save for their future since the implicit rate of return in an unfunded social security program is less than the marginal product of capital the resulting decline in saving causes a welfare loss the present paper examines the conditions under which the welfare loss could be reduced by replacing the current universal social security program with a means tested program that pays benefits only to those individuals with little or no other retirement income or assets every society must solve the problem of supporting those individuals who become too old to work but have not made adequate provision for their own old age by saving when they were young at the present time the major industrial countries of the world have responded to this problem by creating social security programs that tax the working population and use the proceeds to provide a universal benefit to all retirees regardless of their financial condition this universal provision of social security benefits distorts the saving decisions of those workers who are rational enough to plan for the future since the implicit rate of return that taxpayers get on their this research is part of the nber study of the government budget and the private economy a more complete version of this paper with some numerical calculations is available as nber working paper no 1775 feldstein 1985b i am grateful to gilbert metcalf for assistance with the calculations presented in this paper and for helpful discussions for a discussion of the effect of promised retirement benefits on the savings of employees see feldstein 1974 1982 barro 1974 1978 has discussed an interesting

price adjustment and exchange rate pass through abstract this paper develops a simple theoretical model that can be used to account for the determinants of exchange rate pass through to consumer prices while recent evidence has found low estimates of pass through in many countries there is little consensus on an explanation for this our paper argues that sticky prices represent a key determinant of exchange rate pass through we make this argument in two stages first holding the frequency of price change constant we show that our model calibrated to data from low inflation countries can reproduce the estimates of very low pass through for these countries the principal determinant of low pass through in this case is the slow adjustment of prices we then extend the model to allow the frequency of price change to be endogenous calibrating to a wider set of countries including both low inflation and high inflation countries we show that our model implies that exchange rate pass through is increasing in average inflation but at a declining rate performing the identical exercise on the data we find a striking correspondence between the predictions of the model and those of the data

reconsidering the effect of welfare stigma on unemployment abstract stigma has been modeled in the literature as a cost of welfare participation providing a disincentive to welfare entry hence traditional models predict that stigma leads to higher search effort and higher employment we develop a more comprehensive model that accounts for the fact that welfare stigma may elicit psychological effects and foster negative attitudes towards welfare recipients affecting their employment prospects we find two contrasting effects the first reinforces the standard prediction rational individuals foreseeing the reduction in employability defer welfare entry deterrence effect the second goes in the opposite direction once assisted individuals experience less welfare to employment transitions both because of reduced search effectiveness and of reduced search effort entrapment effect when stigma is not too high the latter effect prevails more stigma yields to less employment and more welfare participation the result is stronger if individuals are not able to foresee their loss of employability

entry and exit transitions in a government transfer program the case of aid to families with dependent children this study analyzes determinants of entry and exit transitions in the aid to families with dependent children program using data from the panel study of income dynamics the principal findings are that state controlled policy parameters such as the afdc guarantee the payment received when earnings are zero and the entry income limit the income level at which families become eligible for afdc payments have a significant but asymmetric impact on these transitions in addition evidence on the relationship between wages and such transitions tends to support efforts at reducing welfare dependency through programs which raise wages

effective tax rates and guarantees in the afdc program 1967 1982 estimates of effective tax rates on earned and unearned income and estimates of effective guarantees in the afdc program by state are provided for the period 1967 1982 the results indicate that effective real guarantees fell every year from 1967 to 1981 but stabilized in 1982 effective tax rates on unearned income rose steadily from 1967 to 1981 and took a particularly large additional jump in 1982 effective tax rates on earned income fell after 1967 but then gradually rose throughout the 1970s until 1982 when they took a much larger jump thus guarantees fell and tax rates rose over the 1970s as tight budgets forced states to restrict benefits and in the early 1980s tax rates were pushed even higher by federal legislation

introduction to a special section on exchange rate pass through in developing and emerging markets abstractthe interest in exchange rate pass through erpt in emerging market and developing economies has burgeoned in the last two decades small open and trade dependent economies embody special features that can make it difficult to obtain reliable estimates of erpt this special section includes a survey of recent research in developing and emerging market countries on erpt focusing on the monetary policy relevance of erpt the frequent misspecifications that produce unreliable erpt estimates are highlighted many empirical issues raised in the survey are illustrated by the macro and the micro economic empirical studies on south africa sa included in this special section and an earlier published jds paper on erpt in sa

labour supply impacts of effective welfare programme parameters a reanalysis we quantify the impact of effective welfare programme parameters on the labour supply of single female household heads the primary group of welfare recipients in the usa our panel of data is derived from the us census bureau s current population survey for the years 1979 to 1990 inclusive behavioural impacts from a range of economic variables are consistent in sign with predictions made by economic theory we find that effective welfare gurantee levels and the effective tax rate on earned income both significantly decrease labour supply the marginal effects of these welfare programme parameters are economically small a us 1000 increase in the expected welfare guarantee level reduces annual labour supply by about 36 hours a 10 percentage point increase in the effective tax rate on earned income reduces annual labour supply by about 7 5 hours

participation in the afdc program and the stigma of welfare receipt estimation of a choice theoretic model one of the important issues in policy discussions of the present welfare system and of welfare reform alternatives concerns the degree to which low income families eligible for welfare will in fact participate in the major program in the current system aid to families with dependent children afdc participation rates have risen over time particularly in the late 1960 s but have never been 100 percent explaining such changes in participation rates is an important subject of investigation because a participation rates lead directly to caseload sizes and thus to the possibility of a welfare explosion and b the estimates of the effect of welfare program tax rates and guarantees 10 are strictly applicable only to participants and not to non participants the most likely explanation for this seemingly irrational phenomenon of families rejecting an increase in disposable income lies in the stigma of welfare receipt for many families consider welfare participation to be demeaning socially undesirable and or destructive of self respect and feelings of self worth however although there has been considerable discussion of the nature of stigma 13 particularly in the sociological literature 11 there is a need to establish a firm theoretical base for the phenomenon and to formally investigate its properties in this paper a model of welfare participation is developed which incorporates stigma and thus establishes such a theoretical base and estimates of the parameters of the model are obtained there are two key characteristics of the model first participation in a welfare program is introduced into the utility function under the assumption that stigma represents a distaste for welfare the desire to participate is thus formulated within a traditional consumer

child support welfare dependency and poverty female headed families have among the highest poverty rates of any major demographic group in the united states the purpose of this paperis to investigate empirically the effectiveness of current child support enforcement policies and to determine their role in reducing poverty and welfare dependency a special supplement to the april 1982 current population survey provides the data for the analysis the results indicate that child support enforce ment may represent an effective means for re ducing welfare program costs but isunlikely to have a dramatic effect on either welfare de pendency or poverty copyright 1986 by american economic association

uncertain lifetime consumption and dissaving in retirement this paper asks whether the continued accumulation or mild dissaving observed among the retired can be explained by uncertain lifetime in the absence of annuities after an initial period influenced by borrowing constraints under constant relative risk aversion uncertain lifetime depresses consumption by a proportion increasing with age if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is small illustrative computations based on actual income and survival data show that plausible elasticities are sufficiently small to give this effect the reduction in consumption is large enough to explain much of the lack of decumulation by the elderly

analysis of transition data by the minimum chi square method an application to welfare spells in belgium in this paper we analyze transition data by means of the minimum chi square mcs method instead of the more commonly used maximum likelihood ml method the analysis includes exits to multiple destinations and unmeasured heterogeneity in the empirical application turnover in the welfare system in belgium is found to be very high median duration is 4 5 months for men and 7 months for women although these figures overstate turnover in that exits out of welfare include those occurring as a consequence of recipients moving to another municipality while remaining on welfare

deindustrialisation and the social and economic sustainability nexus in developing countries cross country evidence on productivity and employment in an empirical investigation of the interactions between industrial structure and macro outcomes an accounting framework was applied to relate changes in sectoral employment and output compositions to changes in overall productivity growth over time the numerical results were interpreted using a taxonomy describing industrialisation and deindustrialisation in developing countries the findings suggest that in particular industrial performance correlates with the overall performance of an economy and therefore is the key sector in explaining the sustainability of different regional patterns in overall productivity and employment growth that is negative rates of productivity growth in the industrial sector are strongly associated with negative productivity growth for the economy as a whole and vice versa further slow industrial growth may lead to low road development in which productivity growth trades off with employment growth while high road development is defined as simultaneously expanding

exchange rates domestic prices and central bank actions recent u s experience central banks that are primarily concerned with the behavior of prices will use monetary policy to try to insulate prices from exchange rate changes prices then appear unresponsive to changes in the exchange rate the observed relationships between prices and the exchange rate will reflect central bank actions instead of the underlying relationship between exchange rates and prices this paper explicitly recognizes the role that policy plays in determining the observable relationships between exchange rates and prices and in so doing it illustrates how the underlying relationships can be unraveled using three different empirical approaches we examine the recent experience of the united states we find that the prices of various nondurable goods and even of some services respond modestly to the exchange rate and we find that the responses emerge most clearly when the role of monetary policy is explicitly considered these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the federal reserve acts to mitigate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic prices the dramatic swings in currency values that characterize the current floating exchange rate period continue to inspire new research into their consequences for prices this paper examines those consequences for u s domestic prices the use of domestic price data is central to understanding the transmission of depreciation to inflation and it distinguishes this research from the many related studies that focus on the prices of imports and exports in examining the link between the exchange rate and domestic prices we emphasize the role of the central bank we note that a central bank that is primarily concerned with prices will act to insulate them from currency fluctuations if successful the central bank s actions will dampen the responses of prices to changes in the exchange rate and the underlying response will be partially masked as a consequence we provide empirical evidence of this dampening effect in the united states the prices of many u s nondurable goods and even of some services respond modestly to the exchange rate and their responses emerge most clearly when the role of monetary policy is explicitly considered our results also provide insight into the interpretation of some related studies of trade and

decomposing brazilian manufacturing industry dynamics in the mid 2000s macroeconomic factors and their sectoral impacts abstract the manufacturing industry s loss in participation phenomena called deindustrialization has been observed for the brazilian economy for a while and seems to have intensified from mid 2000s however the literature has not developed a consistent or integrated analysis of this process we have used a detailed simulation model to identify how macroeconomic factors such as exchange rate labor costs and household consumption have contributed to manufacturing dynamics our results indicate that the macroeconomic scenario explains a large portion of the manufacturing industry s participation loss the rise in households consumption and investment important factors in this period were responsible for dampening of the pressures coming from the currency appreciation and the workforce costs benefiting some industrial sectors but not avoiding the manufacturings participation loss

welfare benefits and the duration of welfare spells evidence from a natural experiment in canada abstract this paper uses a major reform of the welfare program implemented in the province of quebec canada in 1989 to analyze the impact of benefits on the length of welfare spells an important feature of this reform was the abolishment of discrimination based on age that applied to benefits as a result the monthly benefits of single individuals aged less than 30 increased from 173 to 425 1986 an increase of over 145 to assess the impact of the reform we estimate a series of semi parametric hazard models analogous to the regression approach to difference in differences estimation the estimated duration elasticities with respect to benefits for single men and women aged 22 29 are 0 25 and 0 28 respectively

equivalence results for optimal pass through optimal indexing to exchange rates and optimal choice of currency for export pricing firms sometimes write price lists or catalogs for their exports so they set prices for a period of time and do not adjust prices during that interval in response to changes in their environment the firm sets the price either in its own currency or the importer s currency this paper draws a simple link between the choice of currency and the pricing decision of a firm that changes prices in response to all shocks specifically if the latter firm s price has a lower variance in terms of its own currency than the importer s currency then the firm with a price list will set the price in its own currency and otherwise it will set price in the foreign currency this relationship is established by consideration of the firm with a price list as a special case of a firm that indexes its export price to the exchange rate jel f4 f1

does the availability of high wage jobs for low skilled men affect welfare expenditures evidence from shocks to the steel and coal industries abstract we study shocks to the coal and steel industries to measure the effect of long term changes in demand for low skilled workers on welfare expenditures the coal and steel industries have historically paid high wages to low skilled men we find a substantial increase in welfare expenditures in response to the collapse of the steel and coal industries in the 1980s and an even more substantial reduction in welfare expenditures during the coal boom of the 1970s additional analysis indicates the reduction in welfare expenditures during the coal boom is due in part to a decline in single parent households