price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors since the liberalisation of the european electricity sector forward and futures contracts have gained significant interest of market participants due to risk management reasons for pricing of these contracts an important fact concerns the non storability of electricity in this case according to economic theory forward prices are related to the expected spot prices which are built on fundamental market expectations in the following article the crucial impact parameters of forward electricity prices and the relationship between forward and future spot prices will be assessed by an empirical analysis of electricity prices at the european energy exchange and the nord pool power exchange in fact price formation in the considered markets is influenced by historic spot market prices yielding a biased forecasting power of long term contracts although market and risk assessment measures of market participants and supply and demand shocks can partly explain the futures spot bias inefficiencies in the analysed forward markets cannot be ruled out

a general equilibrium analysis of the optimal number of firms in a polluting industry in partial equilibrium competitive models in which emissions are proportional to output the optimal output of individual firms in a polluting industry is the same with or without a pigouvian tax the same holds in general equilibrium only if the production function of those firms is homothetic the pigouvian tax increases the price of the polluting good reducing industry output and as a consequence the relative price of the input in which polluting firms are relatively intensive they will adjust their input ratios accordingly and if production functions are non homothetic this will either increase or decrease the level of output at which the total profit of the individual firm is zero une analyse en equilibre general du nombre optimal de firmes dans une industrie polluante dans les modeles concurrentiels en equilibre partiel la production optimale des firmes individuelles dans une industrie polluante est identique qu il y ait ou non une taxe a la pigou on obtient le meme rdsultat en equilibre general si la fonction de production de ces firmes est homothetique la taxe a la pigou augmente le prix du produit polluant reduit le niveau de production de l industrie et par voie de consequence le prix relatif de l intrant employe de fa9on relativement intensive par les firmes polluantes ces firmes vont ajuster les ratios d intrants en consequence si les fonctions de production ne sont pas homothetiques ces ajustements vont augmenter ou reduire le niveau de production qui correspond a un profit total nul pour la firme individuelle

robust estimation and forecasting of the long term seasonal component of electricity spot prices when building stochastic models for electricity spot prices the problem of uttermost importance is the estimation and consequent forecasting of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data while the short term seasonal components daily weekly are more regular and less important for valuation of typical power derivatives the l ong term seasonal components ltsc seasonal annual are much more diffi cult to tackle surprisingly in many academic papers dealing with electricity spot price modeling the importance of the seasonal decomposition is neglected and the problem of forecasting it is not considered with this paper we want to fill the gap and present a thorough study on estimation and forecasting of the ltsc of electricity spot prices we consider a battery of models based on fourier or wavelet decomposition combined with linear or exponential decay we find that all considered wavelet base d models are significantly better in terms of forecasting spot prices up to a year ahead than all considered sine based models this result questions the validity and usefulness of stochastic models of spot electricity prices built on sinusoidal long term seasonal components

forward curves scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets the role of inventory in explaining the shape of the forward curve and spot price volatility in commodity markets is central in the theory of storage developed by kaldor kaldor n 1939 speculation and economic stability the review of economic studies 7 1 27 and working working h 1949 the theory of the price of storage american economic review 39 1254 1262 and has since been documented in a vast body of financial literature including the reference paper by fama and french fama e f and k r french 1987 commodity futures prices some evidence on forecast power premiums and the theory of storage journal of business 60 55 73 on metals the goal of this paper is twofold i validate in the case of oil and natural gas the use of the slope of the forward curve as a proxy for inventory the slope being defined in a way that filters out seasonality ii analyze directly for these two major commodities the relationship between inventory and price volatility in agreement with the theory of storage we find that i the negative correlation between price volatility and inventory is globally significant for crude oil ii this negative correlation prevails only during those periods of scarcity when the inventory is below the historical average and increases importantly during the winter periods for natural gas our results are illustrated by the analysis of a 15 year database of us oil and natural gas prices and inventory

valuation and optimal operation of electric power plants in competitive markets we present an algorithm for the valuation and optimal operation of hydroelectric and thermal power generators in deregulated electricity markets real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial integro differential equations pides for the valuation and optimal operating strategies of both types of facilities the equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time dependent mean reverting dynamics and price spikes as those observed in most electricity markets particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real power generators for thermal power plants these characteristics include variable start up times and costs control response time lags minimum generating levels nonlinear output functions and structural limitations on ramp rates for hydroelectric units head effects and environmental constraints are addressed we illustrate the models with numerical examples of a pump storage facility and a thermal power plant this pide framework can achieve high levels of computational speed and accuracy while incorporating a wide range of spot price dynamics and operational characteristics

integrating real options analysis with long term electricity market models abstract in liberalized electricity markets the investment postponement option is deemed decisive for understanding the addition of new generating capacity basically it refers to the possibility for investors to postpone projects for a period while waiting for the arrival of new and better information about the market evolution when such development involves major uncertainties the generation business becomes riskier and the investors wait and see behavior might limit the timely addition of new power plants in that sense the literature provides solid empirical evidence about the occurrence of construction cycles in the deregulated electricity industry however the strategic flexibility inherent to the option to defer new power plants has not yet been rigorously incorporated to investment signals in existing market models therefore this paper proposes a novel methodology to assess the long term development of liberalized power markets based on a more realistic approach for valuing generation investments the work is based on a stochastic dynamic market model built upon system dynamics simulation approach the decision making framework considers that the addition of new capacity is driven by the economic value of the strategic flexibility associated with deferring investments under uncertainties thus the value of the postponement option is quantified in monetary terms through real options analysis simulations confirm the cyclical behavior of the energy only market in the long run as suggested by the empirical evidence found in the literature in addition sensitivity analysis regarding some relevant exogenous variables depicts an even more fluctuating evolution of the capacity due to the combination of strong demand growth rates with large volatilities finally the model validity is assessed through a formal procedure according to the scope of system dynamics modeling approach

predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime switching model with time varying parameters this paper shows that a stochastic regime switching model can represent the volatile behavior of wholesale electricity prices associated with price spikes effectively the structure of the model is very flexible because the mean prices in the two regimes and the two transition probabilities are functions of the load and or the implicit reserve margin using price data from the single settlement market in pjm may 1999 to may 2000 the results show that the estimated switching probability from the low to the high regime predicts price spikes well if the reserve margin is measured accurately

information transmission and market interactions across the atlantic an empirical study on the natural gas market abstract this paper studies the international information transmission and market interactions in the u s and u k natural gas markets three well documented approaches are used to measure the relative importance on the process of price discovery under a quadvariate system after adjusting the effects of nonsynchronous trading prices robust results indicate our system that includes spot and futures prices within the two countries are driven by one common factor information disseminates efficiently among the four markets concerned the u s futures market dominates as the center for price discovery the u k futures market comes as the second the spot markets in the u s and u k are less efficient than their corresponding futures market where the u k spot market contributes the least and almost zero to the price discovery process asymmetric volatility spillovers are found in three of the four markets volatility in the u s futures market increases with positive returns which illustrates the inverse leverage effect in most of the commodity market volatilities in the spot markets are negatively related to returns which is analogous to the traditional leverage effect prevailing in most of the equity stock markets

production uncertainty and pollution there has been considerable interest in two sector models in which the production of one of the goods is subject to uncertainty the major papers in this area are by rothenberg and smith 13 batra 1 britto 3 diamond 5 mills 12 and harford and park 8 in the latest of these papers harford and park 8 41 build on a model in mills 12 to show that if constant relative risk aversion r which is mathematically analogous to the pratt arrow measure is less than exceeds or equal to unity the direction of efficient resource flow under uncertainty as compared to certainty is away from the risky sector toward the risky sector or unchanged respectively in their model as in mills 12 the preferences of consumers are represented by a community expected utility function in the present two sector model the risky sector is an industry that is adversely affected by air pollution which is a by product of production in the other industry although there is a deterministic relation between the output and emissions of the polluting stable sector the damage caused to the other sector as a result of any given level of emissions depends upon random variables such as mixing height and wind velocity and is therefore stochastic it is not intuitively obvious whether the results of harford and park 8 hold if the uncertainty in the risky sector is the consequence of production in the stable sector in fact there is substantial dissimilarity in the results if the measure of risk aversion r is less than unity the efficient direction of resource flow is generally though not always toward the risky polluted sector if r equals unity the results also differ with resources shifting under uncertainty in the direction of the risky polluted sector only if r exceeds unity are the results always the same in both models with resources flowing toward the risky sector this paper presents the marginal condition such that under uncertainty the optimal combination of outputs includes less of the stable polluting good and more of the risky pollution sensitive good than would be the case if pollution damage were anticipated with certainty if this marginal condition does not hold the risk averse community may prefer either more or less of the polluting good a narrowed interpretation of the marginal condition is then used to predict the special case in which the efficient flow of resources under uncertainty is toward the polluting sector

a stochastic fuel switching model for electricity prices abstract this paper develops and applies a novel electricity price model we reproduce the merit order of a thermal dominated electricity system by establishing a non linear dependency of wholesale electricity prices on the prices of fuels coal and natural gas and of co 2 emission allowances the coefficients are estimated using a markov switching regression this approach might prove valuable for cross hedging positions in the fuel electricity and emission spot markets it is also of use for studying the degree to which electricity prices in different countries reflect fuel and emission cost applying the model to the electricity markets of the uk and germany we find that british electricity prices are quite well explained by short run cost factors while the german ones are less well explained

an empirical comparison of alternate regime switching models for electricity spot prices one of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes markov regime switching mrs models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior however in the studies published so far the goodness of fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus while most of the models were elegant their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored with this paper we want to fill the gap we calibrate and test a range of mrs models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well we find that the most universal and robust structure is that of an independent spike 3 regime model with heteroscedastic diffusion type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions

analysis of commodity prices with the particle filter the behavior of commodities prices is fundamental to real asset investment decisions hedging and pricing financial derivatives schwartz and smith schwartz e s smith j e 2000 short term variations and long term dynamics in commodity prices management science 46 893 911 proposed a two factor model for describing the stochastic processes of commodity prices in which the two factors are short term variations and equilibrium prices these are both unobserved state variables that are estimated using the kalman filter the estimation is based on the observation of future prices for different maturities the authors have carried out this process without incorporating jumps in the short term variation of prices here we aim to demonstrate that the inclusion of jumps better explains the behavior of oil prices and in fact creates difficulties in the estimation of state variables this is because the variables become non gaussian so the kalman filter is not recommended another methodology called the particle filter is more suitable in this case and we describe its application in this article

modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants as such a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region this paper is the first to develop a multivariate self exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the australian national electricity market the importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined it is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity it is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter regional linkages are taken into account

a smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market summary this paper introduces the smooth transition logit stl model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties together with a lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index the development of the stl model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices the model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants behaviour to change gradually over time the main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in queensland copyright 2015 john wiley sons ltd

price discount inventories and the distortion of wti benchmark abstract applying a rolling estimation to the hasbrouck information share model this study investigates the changing status of wti benchmark over time results show the ability of wti in reflecting market conditions decreases sharply and wti s efficiency in processing information has been surpassed by brent s since the second half of 2004 in the short run the wti distortion is related to its price discount problem but the distortion cannot be indicated by contangos in the long run wti s price discount problem coexists with a positive forward curve and both have harmed the price discovery role of wti the rising inventories in cushing significantly deteriorate wti s ability in serving as a world benchmark

on transition probabilities of regime switching in electricity prices we analyze the transition probabilities of regime switching in electricity prices by explicitly incorporating the underlying demand supply structure we show that the transition probabilities of electricity prices cannot be constant and depend on both the current demand level relative to the supply capacity and the trends of demand fluctuation these results not only contrast with the assumption of constant transition probabilities on which many regime switching models are built but also provide new insights on the determinants of the state dependent transition probabilities of regime switching

hedging local volume risk using forward markets nordic case abstract with focus on the nordic electricity market this paper develops hedging strategies for an electricity distributor who manages price and volume risk from fixed price agreements on stochastic electricity load whereas the distributor trades in the spot market at area prices the financial contracts used for hedging are settled against the system price area and system prices are correlated with electricity load as are price differences in practice however this is often disregarded here we develop a joint model for the area price the system price and the load accounting for correlations and we suggest various strategies for hedging in the presence of local volume risk we benchmark against a strategy that ignores correlation and hedges at expected load as is common practice in the industry using data from 2013 and 2014 for two danish bidding areas we show that our best hedging strategy reduces gross loss by 5 8 and 13 6 and increases gross profit by 3 8 and 9 5 respectively although this is partly due to the inclusion of correlation we show that performance improvement is mainly driven by the choice of risk measure

the effects of renewables in space and time a regime switching model of the italian power price abstract renewable energy production can exercise a downward pressure on electricity prices by partly crowding out conventional units characterized by higher marginal costs merit order effect yet congestion induced by renewables would partly offset the merit order effect in the congested zone unless renewables reduce the need for imports and allow the emergence of prosumers these congestion effects of renewables are hereby jointly tested with the merit order effect by means of an endogenous regime switching model wherein a regime corresponds to the observable status congested non congested of the grid the model is taken to data from the italian power exchange observed in 2012 and 2013 with a focus on the line connecting sicily with the south zone a frequent bottleneck in the italian transmission grid the results confirm the merit order effect previously detected in the literature and highlight a negative congestion effect i e renewables relieve congestion from sicily a systematic importer but not from the italian peninsula the exporting region this effect is mainly driven by the wind power in feed

how renewable production depresses electricity prices evidence from the german market abstract the urgency of climate change has led several countries to develop renewable energy in order to reduce co2 emissions through the means of various subsidies in the electricity sector one drawback of such policies is the negative impact on electricity prices known as the merit order effect this paper aims at assessing how intermittent renewable production depresses electricity prices in germany which has experienced a significant increase of its renewable capacity over the last two decades to do so we use a two regime markov switching model that enables to disentangle the impact of wind and solar generation depending on the price being high or low we find as expected that renewable production induces a negative marginal effect which is stronger in regimes of relatively high prices in addition we show that both wind and solar productions have a significant impact on the distribution of prices and in particular on the frequency and expected duration of each regime this has implications in terms of market design security of supply and support mechanisms for renewables

when subsidies for pollution abatement increase total emissions in a first best deterministic world it is well known 2 28 30 that a unit tax on emissions equal to marginal damage is an efficient mechanism for internalizing the damages caused by polluting firms a unit subsidy for emissions abated also equal to marginal pollution damage has the same desirable property but only in the short run in the long run such subsidies induce polluting firms to operate at too small a scale and attract an excessive number of new firms to the polluting industry this can have the perverse result that there are more emissions when abatement is subsidized than when it is not nevertheless economists have been reluctant to give up entirely on the subsidy approach recognizing with oates 23 290 that polluters will obviously be far more receptive to measures that assist with the costs of pollution control than to those that place the burden upon themselves it is therefore not surprising that economists have continued to look for and find new justifications for subsidizing pollution control thus mestelman 20 187 argues that the subsidy scheme may be a second best alternative for externality control when the direct taxation alternative is not politically viable mchugh 17 64 shows that subsidies for pollution abatement expenditures can be a useful instrument in the case of cost increasing technological innovations harford 6 demonstrates that subsidies for pollution control inputs may be efficient when enforcement is sufficiently costly harford 7 makes still another argument for subsidies in the case in which the day to day performance of abatement equipment is uncertain but the uncertainty can be reduced by maintenance expenditures finally there are schemes for combining subsidies and taxes 14 26 given the continuing interest in subsidies it is important to examine carefully the disturbing case in which subsidies increase rather than decrease total emissions

assessing european stock markets co integration abstract this paper examines long run comovements in the uk french and german stock markets using cointegration techniques after fixing the power of the cointegration test no evidence is found of an increasing number of cointegrating vectors an alternative approach to measure increasing integration based on the speed of adjustment coefficients is proposed

regime jumps in electricity prices many countries are liberalizing their energy markets participants in these markets are exposed to market risk due to the characteristics of electricity price dynamics electricity prices are known to be mean reverting very volatile and subject to frequent spikes models that describe the dynamics of electricity prices should incorporate these characteristics in order to capture the price spikes many researchers have introduced stochastic jump processes but we argue and show that this specification might lead to potential problems with specifying the true amount of mean reversion within the process in this paper we propose a regime switching model that models price spikes separated from normal mean reverting prices