an economic theory of self control the concept of self control is incorporated in a theory of individual intertemporal choice by modeling the individual as an organization the individual at a point in time is assumed to be both a farsighted planner and a myopic doer the resulting conflict is seen to be fundamentally similar to the agency conflict between the owners and managers of a firm both individuals and firms use the same techniques to mitigate the problems which the conflicts create this paper stresses the implications of this agency model and discusses as applications the effect of pensions on saving saving and the timing of income flows and individual discount rates

procrastination at the patent office abstract pointing to a limited set of statistics suggesting that examiners turn in much of their work product at the end of quota periods the commerce department has recently raised concerns over examiner procrastination and its consequences for examination quality end loading of review completions alone however is not dispositive evidence of procrastination in this paper we confirm that examiners complete a substantial percentage of reviews at the end of both bi weekly and quarterly quotas and then proceed to test for additional markers that may separate a procrastination explanation for these findings from a range of alternative theories among other tests explored in this regard we predict and find evidence of an immediate spike in end loading upon the onset of examiner telecommuting a change in work environments that likely exacerbates self control problems our findings support a procrastination interpretation for at least some portion of the observed end loading of reviews with our outcomes analysis suggesting that the predominant consequence of this behavior for examination quality is an increase in examination durations

learning from failure towards an evolutionary model of collaborative ventures this paper reports on a longitudinal case study of the interaction between two partners to a failed international joint venture we develop a model of the collaboration process in partnership and alliances based on earlier work by ring and van de ven 1994 and by doz 1996 we employ a series of events that occurred in the course of the relationship as the unit of analysis in order to trace the interactions between the partners and to explicate the impact that external shocks have on their perceptions of efficiency and equity the impact of these events as well as the responses they elicit on the quality of the relationship and vice versa are also considered we find that the partners assessments cause them to either engage in renegotiation of the terms of the contract or to modify their behavior unilaterally in an attempt to restore balance to the relationship the process feeds back until a new mutual understanding of equity is restored or else the relationship deteriorates gradually until a point when the venture is dissolved we conclude that positive feedback loops are critical in the evolutionary process that relationship quality is both an outcome and a mediating variable and that procedural issues are critical from the start in fostering a climate for positive reinforcement and the building of mutual trust and confidence in the relationship

control and performance of international joint ventures control is a critical concept for successful management and performance of international joint ventures ijvs this paper reviews and synthesizes prior studies addressing the conceptualization and operationalization of control within ijvs as well as the ijv control performance relationship the paper also presents a new conceptualization of ijv control as well as a conceptual frame work for studying control of ijvs

the strategic implications of sunk costs a behavioral perspective abstract this paper examines some of the strategic implications of the sunk cost phenomenon in sequential allocation decisions drawing from psychology and behavioral decision theory we first present a taxonomy of possible causes for the sunk cost effect the tendency of many managers to throw good money after bad we then present the analysis of some implications of this behavior in strategic situations a two period strategic game is developed and analyzed to derive optimal allocations as a function of one player s sunk cost behavior we establish when this behavior can be used as a successful precommitment strategy by the sunk cost player and when it is exploitable by an opponent welfare implications are also explored the sunk cost effect constitutes a form of strategic preference manipulation in which a credible preference change can be induced to provide a strategic advantage to one of the players

a dual parent perspective on control and performance in international joint ventures lessons from a developing economy this study compares the control performance relationship for foreign versus local parents in international joint ventures in china transaction cost analysis is found more applicable to foreign than to chinese parents both overall and specific controls are associated with performance for foreign parents while only specific control is for chinese parents under goal incongruity chinese parent control is associated with foreign parent dissatisfaction with venture performance but not vice versa having a majority stake improves performance from a foreign parent perspective but not from that of the chinese parent

saving puzzles and saving policies in the united states in the past two decades the widely reported personal saving rate in the united states has dropped from double digits to below zero first we attempt to account for the decline in the national income and product accounts nipa saving rate the macroeconomic literature suggests that 40 50 per cent of the drop since 1988 can be attributed to households spending stock market capital gains another 30 per cent is accounting transfers from personal saving into government and corporate saving because of the way pensions and capital gains taxes are treated in the nipa second while nipa saving measures are well suited to measuring the supply of new funds for investment and capital accumulation it is not clear that they should be the target of government saving policies finally we emphasize that the nipa saving rate is not useful in judging whether households are preparing for retirement or other contingencies many households have accumulated significant wealth primarily through retirement saving vehicles and capital gains even as the saving rate slid there remains a segment of the population who save little and whose behaviour appears untouched either by the stock market boom or the slide in personal saving we explore reasons and policy options for their puzzling low saving rate copyright 2001 oxford university press

read this paper later procrastination with time consistent preferences a model of time consistent procrastination is developed to assess the extent to which the observed behavior is compatible with rational behavior when a finite work requirement must be completed by a deadline the remaining time for leisure is an exhaustible resource with a positive rate of time preference the optimal allocation of this resource results in more hours spent working and fewer in leisure the closer the deadline key qualitative findings of psychological studies of academic procrastination are consistent with the standard natural resource management principles implied by the model when suitably adapted to task aversiveness uncertainty and multiple deadlines however quantitatively the fully rational model appears to require an extremely high rate of time preference or elasticity of intertemporal substitution to generate serious procrastination furthermore it cannot explain undesired procrastination

the hyperbolic consumption model calibration simulation and empirical evaluation ur preferences for the long run tend to conflict with our short run behavior when planning for the long run we intend to meet our deadlines exercise regularly and eat healthfully but in the short run we have little interest in revising manuscripts jogging on the stairmaster and skipping the chocolate souffleala mode delay of gratification is a nice long term goal but instant gratification is disconcertingly tempting this gap between long run intentions and short run actions is apparent across a wide range of behaviors including saving choices a 1997 survey found that 76 percent of respondents believe they should be saving more for retirement looking only at respondents who believed they were at an age where you should be seriously saving already the survey found that 55 percent reported being behind in their savings and only 6 percent reported being ahead farkas and johnson 1997 the report on the survey concluded t he gaps between people s atti tudes intentions and behavior are troubling and threaten increased insecurity and dissatisfaction for people when they retire americans are simply not doing what logic and their own reasoning suggests they should be doing a 1993 luntz webber merrill lynch survey found similar answers when baby boomers were asked what percentage of your annual household income do you think you should save for retirement and what percentage of your annual

time inconsistent preferences and social security in this paper we examine the role of social security in an economy populated by overlapping generations of individuals with time inconsistent preferences who face mortality risk individual income risk and borrowing constraints we find that unfunded social security lowers the capital stock output and consumption for consumers with time consistent or time inconsistent preferences however it may raise or lower welfare depending on the strength of time inconsistency

pension plan characteristics and framing effects in employee savings behavior abstract defined contribution pensions in many postsecondary institutions are funded by a combination of an employer premium and a mandatory employee premium individuals can also contribute to a supplemental savings account holding constant total compensation standard reasoning suggests that supplemental savings should depend negatively on the sum of the employer and employee pension contributions contrarily we find that the supplementary savings of professors are significantly more sensitive to employee contributions than to employer contributions this asymmetry is consistent with different marginal propensities to save out of the salary and pension components of compensation nevertheless impacts on lifetime utility are relatively modest

commitment flexibility and optimal screening of time inconsistency this paper develops a theory of optimal provision of commitment devices to people who value both commitment and flexibility and whose preferences differ in the degree of time inconsistency if time inconsistency is observable both a planner and a monopolist provide devices that help each person commit to the efficient level of flexibility however the combination of unobservable time inconsistency and preference for flexibility causes an adverse selection problem to solve this problem the monopolist and possibly the planner curtail flexibility in the device for a more inconsistent person at both ends of the efficient choice range moreover they may have to add unused options to the device for a less inconsistent person and also distort his actual choices this theory has normative and positive implications for private and public provision of commitment devices

intertemporal trades and problems of self control abstract this paper develops a model which explains how individuals manage self control strategies for situations in which an average level of activity per unit time is what needs controlling the focus of the model is intertemporal trades times when for example a dieter decides to eat dessert with lunch by promising himself he will forego dessert at dinner self control is managed successfully by those who learn to complete such trades the paper analyzes the process of learning about the reliability of ones strategies for intertemporal trades

paying not to go to the gym how do consumers choose from a menu of contracts we analyze a novel dataset from three u s health clubs with information on both the contractual choice and the day to day attendance decisions of 7 752 members over three years the observed consumer behavior is difficult to reconcile with standard preferences and beliefs first members who choose a contract with a flat monthly fee of over 70 attend on average 4 3 times per month they pay a price per expected visit of more than 17 even though they could pay 10 per visit using a 10 visit pass on average these users forgo savings of 600 during their membership second consumers who choose a monthly contract are 17 percent more likely to stay enrolled beyond one year than users committing for a year this is surprising because monthly members pay higher fees for the option to cancel each month we also document cancellation delays and attendance expectations among other findings leading explanations for our findings are overconfidence about future self control or about future efficiency overconfident agents overestimate attendance as well as the cancellation probability of automatically renewed contracts our results suggest that making inferences from observed contract choice under the rational expectation hypothesis can lead to biases in the estimation of consumer preferences

time tradeoff sequences for analyzing discounting and time inconsistency this paper introduces time tradeoff tto sequences as a general tool to analyze intertemporal choice we give several applications for empirical purposes we can measure discount functions without requiring any measurement of or assumption about utility we can quantitatively measure time inconsistencies and simplify their qualitative tests tto sequences can be administered and analyzed very easily using only pencil and paper for theoretical purposes we use tto sequences to axiomatize quasi hyperbolic discount functions we demonstrate the feasibility of measuring tto sequences in an experiment in which we tested the axiomatizations our findings suggest rejections of several currently popular discount functions and call for the development of new ones it is especially desirable that such discount functions can accommodate increasing impatience

investment under uncertainty and time inconsistent preferences abstract while standard real options models assume that agents possess a constant rate of time preference there is substantial evidence that agents are impatient about choices in the short term but are patient when choosing between long term alternatives we extend the real options framework to model the investment timing decisions of entrepreneurs with time inconsistent preferences the impact on investment timing depends on such factors as whether entrepreneurs are sophisticated or naive in their expectations regarding their future time inconsistent behavior and whether the payoff from investment occurs all at once or over time the model is extended to the case of a competitive equilibrium

retrospective evaluation of appliance price trends abstract real prices of major appliances refrigerators dishwashers heating and cooling equipment have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables this paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards incur smaller price increases than were expected by the department of energy doe forecasts made in conjunction with standards this effect can be explained by technological innovation which lowers the cost of efficiency and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units we reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting 1 for the past several decades the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing 2 past retail price predictions made by the doe analyses of efficiency standards assuming constant prices over time have tended to overestimate retail prices 3 the average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time doe technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices 4 changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances

an economic approach to influence activities in organizations members of organizations spend considerable time effort and ingenuity attempting to influence decision makers such influence activities may bring benefits to the organization but they also involve real costs this essay offers an economic rationale for such influence activity as representing rational self interested behavior in the presence of informational asymmetries and an analysis of how the design of the organization s structure and policies should respond to the incentives for attempting influence it is posited that information valuable for the organization s decision making is directly available only to members of the organization who have some personal stake in the decisions these individuals may then have an incentive to try to manipulate the information they develop and provide in order to influence the resulting decisions to their benefits this can be costly both in degrading the quality of decision making and in diverting the attention and effort of the organization s members from more productive activities the organization has three different methods it can employ to discourage excessive influence activities and to encourage more directly productive uses of time and effort it can limit access to decision makers and participation in decision making it can alter its decision making criteria to favor those performing well in productive activities and it can provide direct financial incentives to encourage the desired allocation of effort it is shown that an efficiently designed organization will use such financial incentives only as a last resort instead it will always first alter its decision participation policies and decisionmaking criteria

the retirement consumption puzzle a marital bargaining approach abstract evidence from several countries reveals a substantial drop in household consumption around the age of retirement that is difficult to explain with life cycle models using food consumption data from more than 550 households from the panel study of income dynamics for the years 1979 1986 and 1989 1992 we find that married couple households decrease their expenditures on both food consumed at home and away from home by about 9 following the retirement of the male household head no significant decrease in consumption is found for single households either in a sample of males or a pooled sample of single males and females these results are consistent with a model of marital bargaining in which wives prefer to save more than their husbands do to support an expected longer retirement period and relative control over household decisions is affected by control over market income the pattern of the consumption decline which is increasing in the age gap between husband and wife lends further support to this interpretation

hyperbolic discounting and the phillips curve using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model we show that the interaction of staggered nominal contracts with hyperbolic discounting leads to inflation having significant long run effects on real variables

smoking cessation a model of planned vs actual behavior for time inconsistent consumers we offer a simple model of intertemporal choice to characterize how planned versus actual behaviors evolve for time inconsistent smokers our results suggest that smokers participation and cessation decisions are governed by the interplay between three effects the cessation effect leads smokers to advance their plans to quit smoking whereas the procrastination effect leads them to consecutively revise their planned quitting age upwards consequently the duration of smoking is effectively governed by which one of these two effects is dominant finally for certain consumer segments a threshold effect causes an all or nothing type of extreme smoking behavior based on certain critical values of present biased preferences our results provide some preliminary evidence that both marketing efforts by tobacco firms and public policy initiatives can have a significant influence on smoking behavior in particular we find that reductions in the age at which individuals start smoking may not only vastly extend their duration of smoking but also convert potential never smokers into lifetime smokers finally we estimate a hazard model using survey data from over 800 smokers to provide evidence in support of our theoretical model

masters of our time impatience and self control in high level chess games this paper presents empirical findings on gender differences in time preference and inconsistency based on international high level chess panel data with a large number of observations including a control for ability due to the time constraint in chess it is possible to study performance and choices related to time preferences the results suggest that men play shorter games on average and pay a higher price to end the game sooner they also perform worse in shorter game compared to women but better in longer games furthermore women perform worse in time pressure the 40th move time control the results are consistent with the interpretation that men are more impatient with a lower discount factor but also more inconsistent in the sense that they tend to be too impatient women on the other hand are more inconsistent as they tend to over consume reflection time in the beginning leading to time pressure later

economic conditions and alcohol problems this study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and two alcohol related outcomes liquor consumption and highway vehicle fatalities fixed effect models are estimated for the 48 contiguous states over the 1975 1988 time period alcohol consumption and traffic deaths vary procyclically with a major portion of the effect of economic downturns attributed to reductions in incomes rather than employment the intake of hard liquor is the most sensitive to the state of the macroeconomy there is no evidence however that fluctuations in economic conditions have a disproportionate impact on the drunk driving of young adults

stop go monetary policy we propose and estimate several discrete choice models of monetary policy decision making that feature time varying inertia the models permit us to account for three stylized facts characterizing monetary policymaking in the united states 1 target interest rates are gradually adjusted in small discrete movements 2 there are some long stretches of time in which rates are repeatedly moved and 3 there are other long stretches in which the policy rate does not change our models are used to account for the fed s failure to adopt promptly an easier policy stance during the recession of 2001 they are also used to explain delay in tightening the policy stance during the 2003 2006 period that featured a bubble in house prices and was followed by a financial crisis in 2008

roscas as financial agreements to cope with self control problems abstract we consider a model in which people with limited self control can sign binding financial agreements among themselves thereby forming coalitions we show that these financial agreements may help them to alleviate their self control problems we then demonstrate that there exists a stable structure of coalitions in which people form rotating savings and credit associations roscas we therefore provide a behavioral rationale for one of the most prevalent and puzzling financial institutions in developing countries finally we derive and discuss some empirical predictions

how many paychecks an example of a self imposed constraint i introduction the case of ulysses and the sirens is one of the most interesting puzzles for the model of rational behavior 1 ulysses knew enough about himself to know that he would not be able to control his behavior when under the spell of the sirens so he had himself bound to the mast had wax put into the ears of his crew and instructed them to completely disregard any gestures he might make it is reasonable to ask if ulysses knew enough to know that he would lose control when under the spell of the sirens why didn t he know enough to maintain control more generally if you are rational enough to know you are going to be irrational why can t you stop the irrationality apparently things are not so simple psychiatrist george ainslie 1975 1992 argues based upon a large body of experimental evidence in psychology that individuals have an inherent tendency to be myopic and this leads them to have to develop rules of behavior which limit options given the story of ulysses the process of imposing such constraints on oneself is sometimes called binding the christmas club is the traditional example of a self imposed constraint 2 the local credit union offers an account which has all of the attributes of the normal savings account and the added characteristic that the account holder cannot make any withdrawals until a specified date close to christmas given that the lack of flexibility inherent in the christmas club is combined with no compensating advantage of any sort e g higher interest rates standard analysis suggests the christmas club would have no takers but in fact there are many christmas club members 3 apparently a large number of individuals feel they cannot trust themselves to save money for christmas shopping in a normal savings account the christmas club gives them a way of tying their hands it is a self imposed constraint in this paper i examine behavior which might also be an example of a self imposed constraint at the college of william and mary a full time faculty member has the option of receiving her salary in eighteen equal payments over the nine month academic year or in twenty four equal payments over the entire year starting in september the twenty four month option has the look of a self imposed constraint 4 the faculty member who takes this option is foregoing interest earnings from a simple plan which deposits eighteen payments earns interest and finances the summer perhaps the faculty members who elect the twenty four payment option are like ulysses they know enough to know that they will not follow the plan they know enough to make a preference for the twenty four payment option is not necessarily evidence of a self imposed constraint taking eighteen payments squirreling away some of each payment and financing one s summer expenditures from what had accumulated during the academic year is a costly endeavor therefore a standard economic model based on transactions costs could also explain a preference for the twenty four payment option the purpose of this paper is to present a test of these two models ii theoretical analyses of the choice of the twenty four payment option a standard economic model the task at hand is to explain the demand for the twenty four payment option as compared to the eighteen payment option since the total salary is the same in both cases at any nonzero interest rate the present value of the eighteen payment option dominates the present value of the twenty four payment option this suggests that on a strict basis of economic rationality there would be no takers for the twenty four payment option at william and mary however over 67 percent of the faculty choose the twenty four payment option there is however a clear difficulty with simply comparing present values in this case such a comparison implicitly assumes that trips to the bank are costless a complete model should consider transactions costs

political preference functions and public policy reform a model of policy making is developed where governments seek to maximize support from social groups through the combination of both pert social welfare increasing and pert welfare transferring policies the implicit weights of a political preference function shift with a change in the relative cost of interest group organizing attention is paid to the degree of wealth transfers as total social welfare increases because of pert policy changes the model demonstrates that in the case of two competing groups the weight given to one group in the allocation of social surplus will increase as total social welfare increases with a bias toward the other group the relative weights placed on consumers and producers based on pest policies alone are misleading indicators of the political influence of groups a number of general implications of this political economic analysis for the reform of public policies are investigated

the stability of joint ventures reciprocity and competitive rivalry the focus of the following empirical analysis is the influence of reciprocity and long term relationships on the stability of joint ventures these cooperative incentives are offset by industry structural conditions which may promote competitive rivalry among the partners to separate these effects on joint venture survival the hypothesized relationships are proxied by variables drawn from industry and questionnaire data and estimated under a hazard model specification a theoretical implication of the findings is to suggest a shift of attention from the transaction to the economic relationship as the unit of analysis copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

to be consumed with moderation abstract we study the optimal behavior of a hyperbolic discounting agent who has incomplete information about his own preferences and can only learn them through consumption we show that even if moderate current consumption and moderate future consumption always dominates abstinence the agent may optimally decide not to consume as a commitment device against inefficient learning that would lead to future excesses this provides a rationale for why smokers gamblers or compulsive buyers stick to second best personal rules of behavior such as abstinence without invoking standard habit formation arguments we also study how urges modify the strategy of the individual

the role of experience curves for setting meps for appliances abstract minimum efficiency performance standards meps are an important policy instrument to raise the efficiency of products in most schemes the concept of life cycle costs lcc is used to guide setting the meps levels although a large body of literature shows that product cost is decreasing with increasing cumulative production the experience curve this is currently not used for setting meps this article shows how to integrate the concept of the experience curve into lcc calculations for setting meps in the european union and applies this to household laundry driers refrigerator freezers and televisions the results indicate that for driers and refrigerator freezers at least twice the energy savings compared to the current approach can be achieved these products also show that energy label classes can successfully be used for setting meps for televisions an experience curve is provided showing a learning rate of 29 however television prices do not show a relation with energy efficiency but are to a large extent determined by the time the product is placed on the market this suggests to policy makers that for televisions and other products with a short re design and market cycle timing is more important than the meps levels itself

do firms learn to create value the case of alliances we investigate whether firms learn to manage interfirm alliances as experience accumulates we use contract specific experience measures in a data set of over 2000 joint ventures and licensing agreements and value creation measures derived from the abnormal stock returns surrounding alliance announcements learning effects are identified from the effects of unobserved heterogeneity in alliance capabilities we find evidence of large learning effects in managing joint ventures but no such evidence for licensing contracts the effects of learning on value creation are strongest for research joint ventures and weakest for marketing joint ventures these results are consistent with the view that learning effects are more important in situations characterized by greater contractual ambiguity copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

temptation and taxation we study optimal taxation when consumers have temptation and self control problems embedding the class of preferences developed by gul and pesendorfer into a standard macroeconomic setting we first prove in a two period model that the optimal policy is to subsidize savings when consumers are tempted by excessive impatience the savings subsidy improves welfare because it makes succumbing to temptation less attractive we then study an economy with a long but finite horizon which nests as a special case the phelps pollak laibson multiple selves model thereby providing guidance on how to evaluate welfare in this model we prove that when period utility is logarithmic the optimal savings subsidies increase over time for any finite horizon moreover as the horizon grows large the optimal policy prescribes a constant subsidy in contrast to the well known chamley judd result

how do contribution limits affect contributions to tax preferred savings accounts abstract contributions to tax preferred savings accounts are typically constrained by a contribution limit these limits influence contributions not only for taxpayers currently constrained by the limit but also for those contributing less than the limit i develop a simple life cycle model in which taxpayers exhibit use it or lose it contribution behavior this connects current contributions to future contribution limits and implies that an increase in contribution limits can decrease contributions empirical evidence from microdata provides support for the model using variation from canadian limit reforms i find that larger future contribution room is associated with smaller contributions

reconsidering the moral hazard risk avoidance tradeoff the received model for optimal demand side cost sharing trades off moral hazard and risk avoidance this model appears to lie behind recent increases in initial cost sharing such as those embodied in health savings accounts and health reimbursement accounts at the same time there is evidence that lower cost sharing for certain drugs can reduce future total health care costs and or improve future health and this may be true of other medical services as well to the degree that individuals remain in the same common insurance pool lower cost sharing that induces increases in certain services that reduce total costs including future costs represents a classic case for a subsidy and will minimize an employer s labor costs even if total costs increase the value of a change in health could increase more in that case such a subsidy is consistent with recent work in behavioral economics for those with self control problems

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

global platforms and ecosystems implications for international business theories the emergence of digital platforms and ecosystems dpe as a venue for value creation and capture for multinational enterprises holds considerable implications for the theory and practice of international business in this paper we articulate these implications by considering the dual perspectives of cross border platforms and ecosystems as a venue for multifaceted innovation and as multisided marketplace and focusing on three overarching themes at the intersection of dpes and international business that is dpes as affording new ways of internationalization as facilitating new ways of building knowledge and relationships and as enabling new ways of creating and delivering value to global customers we explain specific dpe related concepts and constructs that underlie these themes and discuss how they could be incorporated into existing ib theories in ways that would enhance their richness and continued relevance as well as their ability to better predict a multitude of emerging ib phenomena

competing globally allying locally alliances between global rivals and host country factors an emerging literature highlights the relationship between competitive intensity and the likelihood that two rival firms will form an alliance placing this argument in an international context we first suggest that the global competitive intensity between two rival multinationals positively affects the likelihood that they will ally in any host country additionally we highlight how a number of host country contextual factors moderate the relationship between global competitive intensity and alliance formation in a given host country we test our hypotheses with a sample of 13 global automobile companies operating in 27 countries and the results largely support our predictions

procrastination and obedience in this lecture i shall focus on situations involving repeated decisions with time inconsistent behavior although each choice may be close to maximizing and therefore result in only small losses the cumulative effect of a series of repeated errors may be quite large thus in my examples decision makers are quite close to the intelligent well informed individuals usually assumed in economic analysis but cumulatively they make seriously wrong decisions that do not occur in standard textbook economics this lecture discusses and illustrates several pathological modes of individual and group behavior procrastination in decision making undue obedience to authority membership of seemingly normal individuals in deviant cult groups and escalation of commitment to courses of action that are clearly unwise in each case individuals choose a series of current actions without fully appreciating how those actions will affect future perceptions and behavior the standard assumption of rational forwardlooking utility maximizing is violated the nonindependence of errors in decision making in the series of decisions can be explained with the concept from cognitive psychology of undue salience or vividness for example present benefits and costs may have undue salience relative to future costs

the dynamics of learning alliances competition cooperation and relative scope we show how the tension between cooperation and competition affects the dynamics of learning alliances private benefits and common benefits differ in the incentives that they create for investment in learning the competitive aspects of alliances are most severe when a firm s ratio of private to common benefits is high we introduce a measure relative scope of a firm in an alliance to show that the opportunity set of each firm outside an alliance crucially impacts its behavior within the alliance finally we suggest why firms might deviate from the theoretically optimal behavior patterns 1998 john wiley sons ltd

control and performance in international joint ventures the authors examine the meaning of control in international joint ventures ijvs and the relationships of potential means of control in such organizations to the performance satisfaction of the foreign partner they propose a conceptual model that provides both a traditional ownership focused internalization perspective on those issues and an integrated approach combining a broader transaction cost interpretation of control with a resource input based bargaining power model a set of simultaneous structural equations with endogenous explanatory variables provides multiple possible paths from various resource and power inputs through different means of control to perceived performance satisfaction in such a model intermediate variables act both as dependent and independent variables thus the complex theoretical interactions of the variables are modeled more comprehensively and realistically than in single equation models to test the model and compare the theoretical relationships the authors used dat

the source of optimality in action it is well known that the nature of the information set and the axioms of rational choice are critical in determining the type of ranking on which agents are held to act in economic theory this paper argues that the concept of the optimising agent is also sensitive to the conception of the relation between a ranking of options facing an agent and concrete action what is termed the realisation process three conceptions of the realisation process are examined which are seen to lead to three quite distinct views on the role of agency the enabling conditions under which the concept of the optimising agent may be legitimately applied and the resulting domain of application of optimisation

the behavioral life cycle hypothesis self control mental accounting and framing are incorporated in a behavioral enrichment of the life cycle theory of saving called the behavioral life cycle blc hypothesis the key assumption of the blc theory is that households treat components of their wealth as nonfungible even in the absence of credit rationing specifically wealth is assumed to be divided into three mental accounts current income current assets and future income the temptation to spend is assumed to be greatest for current income and least for future income considerable empirical support for the blc theory is presented primarily drawn from published econometric studies

hyperbolic discounting and secondary markets does the existence of secondary markets for durable goods affect price and allocation on primary markets we study competitive equilibria for durable goods where the possibility of future trade on secondary markets does not affect consumer behaviour in the primary market provided consumers are exponential discounters if consumers are hyperbolic discounters however secondary markets are no longer neutral as they allow consumers to postpone their purchasing decisions in this case the equilibrium price in the primary market is decreasing in the number of periods in which the good can be traded hence primary producers have an incentive to close down secondary markets if secondary markets never close hyperbolic discounters may use collusive intrapersonal strategies which lead to a pareto improvement for all incarnations of the same consumer we characterise the set of all stationary equilibrium prices and show that the competitive equilibrium allocation may be inefficient

effective interim collaboration how firms minimize transaction costs and maximise transaction value this study of automotive transaction relationships in the u s a and japan offers abta which indicate that transaction costs do not necessarily increase with an increase in reiation specijk investments we empirically examine the conditions under which transactors can simultaneously achieve the twin benejits of high asset specificity and low transaction costs this is possible because the dtfferent safeguards which can be employed to control opportunism have different set up costs and result in different transaction costs over dl erent time horizons we examine in detail the ractices of javanese firms which result in effective inteq n collaboration 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

role conflict and role ambiguity of chief executive officers in international joint ventures this study examines the organizational and personal correlates of role conflict and role ambiguity of chief executive officers heading international joint ventures role conflict was found to be lower when the number of parent firms was higher and when the ceo had spent more years with the organization role ambiguity was found to be lower when the ceo had more years of education when the power distance and masculinity femininity gap between parents were lower and when the individualism collectivism and uncertainty avoidance gaps were higher the implications of these findings for role theory and international management are discussed

interfirm diversity organizational learning and longevity in global strategic alliances organizational theorists have correctly argued that the emergence and maintenance of robust cooperation between global strategic alliance partners is related to the diversity in the partners characteristics yet previous research has failed to systematically delineate the important dimensions of interfirm diversity and integrate the dimensions into a unified framework of analysis this paper develops a multilevel typology of interfirm diversity and focuses on organizational learning and adaptation as critical processes that dynamically moderate diversity s impact on alliance longevity and effectiveness

fit misfit and beyond fit relational metaphors and semantic fit in international joint ventures we propose that metaphorical descriptions of newly formed international joint ventures ijvs contain important diagnostic information regarding the way these cross border alliances are managed and perform in three studies we examine how relational metaphors reflect semantic fit or the ijv partners cognitive match of managerial schemas and their capability to recontextualize communications regarding alliance operations we find ijv partners that share relational metaphors achieve superior outcomes reflecting aligned managerial approaches to controlling shared resources and joint activities further formal ownership as equity share moderates the impact managerial schemas implied by metaphors have on subjective time lagged performance of ijvs our analysis of metaphorical language not only reveals the way newly formed ijvs are managed but also highlights performance variations associated with complex patterns of ijv controls

network location and learning the influence of network resources and firm capabilities on alliance formation this paper presents a dynamic firm level study of the role of network resources in determining alliance formation such resources inhere not so much within the firm but reside in the interfirm networks in which firms are placed data from extensive fieldwork show that by influencing the extent to which firms have access to information about potential partners such resources are an important catalyst for new alliances especially because alliances entail considerable hazards this study also assesses the importance of firms capabilities with alliance formation and material resources as determinants of their alliance decisions i test this dynamic framework and its hypotheses about the role of time varying network resources and firm capabilities with comprehensive longitudinal multi industry data on the formation of strategic alliances by a panel of firms between 1970 and 1989 the results confirm field observations that accumulated network resources arising from firm participation in the network of accumulated prior alliances are influential in firms decisions to enter into new alliances this study highlights the importance of network resources that firms derive from their embeddedness in networks for explaining their strategic behavior copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

complexity context and governance in biotechnology alliances this study explores the effect of coordination needs on alliance governance we examine coordination needs that arise as a consequence of the characteristics and the context of the alliance we posit that alliance characteristics and contextual factors influence alliance form and equity investment levels we evaluate the effects of the complexity of technology transfer and strategic complexity of the alliance we also study contextual factors represented by the distance between the intellectual property protection regimes of the home countries of the participants the focal firm s prior presence in the alliance country and its primary expertise in the industry we offer contrasting predictions based on appropriation and coordination perspectives our results demonstrate support for a dominant coordination perspective with alliance characteristics and some contextual factors influencing alliance form appropriation concerns play a weaker role and receive less support

life cycle consumption of a harmful and addictive good david goldbaum this article demonstrates that the endogenous desire to quit smoking can result from a rational consumption path chosen at the time the consumer begins smoking this result is obtained without relying on hidden costs or unknown preferences a finite lived agent chooses a path of consumption of a harmful and addictive good to maximize present discounted utility the consumer chooses his consumption rate to account for the future health consequence of smoking and the withdrawal costs of quitting a consumer may choose to smoke even if it means a lowered utility level for the majority of the time spent smoking jel d91 c61 i12 i introduction some of what we consume for pleasure can be harmful economists assume that consumers take measure of the potential harm and balance it against the pleasure derived from consumption when both the pleasure and the harm occur at the time of consumption the decision is straightforward some goods though impose a cost borne at some future date requiring intertemporal planning these present a greater challenge to the consumer and to the economist trying to explain the consumer s behavior at times observed behavior implores us to question whether the consumer is properly weighing the costs and benefits in a manner that maximizes his or her utility theoretically for each item under consideration the rational consumer properly balances the lifetime benefits derived from the consumption against the lifetime costs some observed behavior seems to contradict this rational approach to consumption in particular it is common for people to begin smoking cigarettes during their youth only to endogenously make a decision to quit at a future date to integrate this behavior with rationality modelers have proposed hidden costs multiple selves changing preferences or other strategies that limit the decision making ability of the youth in all of these cases for some consumers the decision to smoke is a mistake made during youth that has to be reversed at some cost as a middle aged adult this article aims to demonstrate that a lifetime path of consumption in which a person consumes a harmful and addictive good while young and quits at some later date is a path that is perfectly consistent with rational behavior it is not necessary to assume that mid life quitters are displaying irrational or time inconsistent behavior if all information regarding a good s harmful properties is revealed some consumers will still choose a path that requires quitting mid life this paper primarily examines the consumption of cigarettes but also includes analysis of a nonaddictive unhealthy good both of these harmful goods provide the consumer with immediate pleasure but at the cost of decreasing life expectancy background becker and murphy 1988 bm introduced the concept of rational addiction the idea that addicts are forward looking rational consumers present consumption choices reflect not only current utility considerations and budget constraints but also incorporate the anticipated impact of present consumption on future utility and budget constraints bm examine the behavior response of addicts to exogenous shocks changes from a steady state including the desire to quit originate only from exogenous shocks such as a change in the relative price of the good or a revelation about the detrimental health consequences of the addictive good that alters the consumer s utility derived from consumption the model offers no mechanism by which smokers may choose to alter behavior endogenously in contrast to bm s smokers many of today s smokers appear to quit in absence of an external shock anyone who began smoking after 1966 has been subjected to the legislated health warnings appearing on cigarette packages since that time 1 antismoking messages in radio and television advertisements during the 1950s and 1960s also helped to make the health consequences of smoking common knowledge

control cooperation interfaces in global strategic alliances a situational typology and strategic responses this article applies the dialectical logic of loose coupling to interpartner exchanges in order to analyze the dynamics of global strategic alliances we develop a typology of control and cooperation that defines alliance states or situations according to their level of cooperation under private and collective control in the private control cooperation interplay contending honeymoon and coopetition situations arise depending on the levels of private control and cooperation in the collective control cooperation interplay the loosely connected the equity hostage the tightly integrated and the trusting states emerge according to the levels of collective control and cooperation we illustrate how an individual partner strategically responds to the control cooperation interplay under each situation or state and develop hypotheses explicating how these strategic responses are influenced by relational characteristics such as goal congruity resource complementarity and bargaining asymmetry between foreign and local partners

polices for increasing energy efficiency thirty years of experience in oecd countries energy efficiency improvement was an important phenomenon in the global energy balance over the past 30 years without energy efficiency improvements the oecd nations would have used approximately 49 more energy than was actually consumed as of 1998 this paper first reviews energy intensity trends for the major oecd nations since 1973 considering how much of the overall reduction in e gdp was due to energy efficiency improvement and how much was due to structural change the bulk of the paper examines the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in japan united states and western europe commenting on their effectiveness and energy savings impacts where possible the paper also reviews the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in california this experience shows that well designed policies can result in substantial energy savings as demonstrated in the united states where nine specific policies and programs reduced primary energy use in 2002 by approximately 11 substantial energy savings also occurred in japan some european countries and in the electricity sector in california

equity joint ventures and the theory of the multinational enterprise this paper extends the internalization approach to the theory of the multinational enterprise mne to include an expanded role for equity joint ventures using the transaction cost paradigm of williamson this paper explains why joint ventures may sometimes be preferred over wholly owned subsidiaries also presented is empirical work on joint venture performance in developing countries which demonstrates that under certain conditions joint ventures can be the optimal mode of foreign direct investment

analyzing price and efficiency dynamics of large appliances with the experience curve approach large appliances are major power consumers in households of industrialized countries although their energy efficiency has been increasing substantially in past decades still additional energy efficiency potentials exist energy policy that aims at realizing these potentials faces however growing concerns about possible adverse effects on commodity prices here we address these concerns by applying the experience curve approach to analyze long term price and energy efficiency trends of three wet appliances washing machines laundry dryers and dishwashers and two cold appliances refrigerators and freezers we identify a robust long term decline in both specific price and specific energy consumption of large appliances specific prices of wet appliances decline at learning rates lr of 29 8 and thereby much faster than those of cold appliances lr of 9 4 our results demonstrate that technological learning leads to substantial price decline thus indicating that the introduction of novel and initially expensive energy efficiency technologies does not necessarily imply adverse price effects in the long term by extending the conventional experience curve approach we find a steady decline in the specific energy consumption of wet appliances lr of 20 35 and cold appliances lr of 13 17 our analysis suggests that energy policy might be able to bend down energy experience curves

a model of focusing in economic choice we present a generally applicable theory of focusing based on the hypothesis that a person focuses more on and hence overweights attributes in which her options dier more our model predicts that the decisionmaker is too prone to choose options with concentrated advantages relative to alternatives but maximizes utility when the advantages and disadvantages of alternatives are equally concentrated in intertemporal choice because the relative concentrations of an option s costs and benets can be dierent from the perspective of a single period and the perspective of the entire choice problem the decisionmaker often exhibits a form of time inconsistency she is present biased when the costs of current misbehavior are distributed over many future dates such as in harmful consumption but future biased when the benet of many

testing hyperbolic discounting in consumer decisions evidence for argentina abstract the paper focuses on deep parameter estimates following the gmm approach applied to a modified euler equation which nests the case of a quasi hyperbolic discount function parameter estimates for argentina match with a discount function in which procrastination is a key feature

spreading academic pay over nine or twelve months economists are supposed to know better but do they act better our article empirically considers two general hypotheses related to the literature of behavioural economics first we test the null hypothesis that individuals behave on average in a manner more consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis than with the idea of self control in the face of hyperbolic discounting in their saving decisions second along a variety of dimensions we examine whether individuals exhibit herbert simon s notion that the goal formation of individuals will differ depending upon their relative levels of experience and knowledge perhaps there are significant differences among groups in their saving decisions that depend upon their apparent levels of intelligence education and knowledge finally using a variety of individual specific control variables we test for robustness of the results

choice and procrastination author s o donoghue ted rabin matthew abstract recent models of procrastination due to self control problems assume that a procrastinator considers just one option and is unaware of her self control problems we develop a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self control problems this menu model replicates earlier results and generates new ones a person might forego completing an attractive option because she plans to complete a more attractive but never to be completed option hence providing a non procrastinator additional options can induce procrastination and a person may procrastinate worse pursuing important goals than unimportant ones

international joint venture instability a critique of previous research a reconceptualization and directions for future research this paper conducts an in depth critique of previous research on international joint venture instability by pointing out its major limitations lack of clear conceptualizations and consistent operationalizations lack of clarity in the relationship with performance static focus on the eventual destination rather than developmental processes and lack of managerial relevance to overcome these deficiencies we propose a significant reconceptualization in which instability is defined as a neutral dynamic process based and multifaceted phenomenon directions for future research are provided

decision making approaches and the propensity to default evidence and implications abstract this paper examines heterogeneity in the responsiveness to default options in a large state retirement plan focusing on individuals decision making approaches as well as their economic and demographic characteristics analyses of a survey of plan participants show that procrastination and the need for cognitive closure are important determinants of the likelihood of default this paper also explores an important implication of defaulting individuals who default are significantly more likely to subsequently express a desire to enroll in a different plan the desire to change plans is also correlated with numerous economic and decision making characteristics including procrastination

learning to contract evidence from the personal computer industry organizational forms involving more detailed contracts than are found in traditional spot market exchanges appear to be increasingly prevalent there has been relatively little analysis however of the extent to which firms learn how to use contracts to manage their interfirm relationships over time in this paper we conduct a detailed case study of a time series of 11 contracts concluded during 1989 1997 between the same two partners both of whom participate in the personal computer industry to explore whether and how firms learn to contract we find many changes to the structure of the contracts that cannot be fully explained by changes in the assets at risk in the relationship and evidence that these changes are largely the result of processes in which the firms were learning how to work together including learning how to contract with each other the nature of this learning appears to have been quite incremental and local that is not very far sighted we suggest how and when contracts might serve as repositories for knowledge about how to govern collaborations and suggest some boundary conditions for this phenomenon our findings also provide implications for the debate about whether contracts have a positive or negative effect on interorganizational trust we conclude with suggestions for future research

what accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among u s households even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics saving and wealth vary considerably life cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates risk tolerance exposure to uncertainty relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages and income replacement rates these factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile using the panel study of income dynamics and the consumer expenditure survey we find little support for these implications the data are instead consistent with rule of thumb mental accounting or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation jel di d91 e21

the intertemporal dynamics of consumer lock in this article examines how dynamic changes in information cost structure and time preferences affect consumers search and switching behavior over time and lead to lock in the information cost structure is conceptualized as a trade off of initial setup costs and ongoing usage costs lock in is defined as consumers decreased propensity to search and switch after an initial investment which is determined both by a preference to minimize immediate costs and by an inability to anticipate the impact of future switching costs the results of three experiments support the proposed mechanism experiment 1 shows that a small initial investment is sufficient to produce lock in experiment 2 shows that the results of a prior investment on lock in are not due to psychological commitment but to a shift in relative costs of incumbent and new options experiment 3 shows that respondents fail to anticipate how their prior investment will lock them in

how are preferences revealed revealed preferences are tastes that rationalize an economic agent s observed actions normative preferences represent the agent s actual interests it sometimes makes sense to assume that revealed preferences are identical to normative preferences but there are many cases where this assumption is violated we identify five factors that increase the likelihood of a disparity between revealed preferences and normative preferences passive choice complexity limited personal experience third party marketing and intertemporal choice we then discuss six approaches that jointly contribute to the identification of normative preferences structural estimation active decisions asymptotic choice aggregated revealed preferences reported preferences and informed preferences each of these approaches uses consumer behavior to infer some property of normative preferences without equating revealed and normative preferences we illustrate these issues with evidence from savings and investment outcomes

split management control and international joint venture performance a framework is presented to characterize four different ways in which management control is partitioned between a multinational enterprise mne and local partners within international joint ventures jvs split control management shared management mne partner dominant management and local partner dominant management the framework was tested using a sample of international jvs in korea we found that jvs following the split control management performed better than any other approach no performance differences were found among the remaining three types of management control this suggests that mnes and local partners should split control that is choose the activities to control so that those chosen activities can be matched with their respective firm specific advantages

strategic ignorance as a self disciplining device we analyse the decision of an agent with time inconsistent preferences to consume a good that exerts an externality on future welfare the extent of the externality is initially unknown but may be learned via a costless sampling procedure we show that when the agent cannot commit to future consumption and learning decisions incomplete learning may occur on a markov perfect equilibrium path of the resulting intra personal game in such a case each agent s incarnation stops learning for some values of the posterior distribution of beliefs and acts under self restricted information this conduct is interpreted as strategic ignorance all equilibria featuring this property strictly pareto dominate the complete learning equilibrium for any posterior distribution of beliefs

symposium on organizations and economics m t r ost production in modern economies occurs within organizations and this production is regulated only to a limited extent by prices the size of some of the largest organizations like general motors or ibm or att if managers didn t they would be replaced and firms that didn t maximize value wouldn t survive accordingly what went on inside the black box was mere detail the behavior of the firm could be described completely without knowledge of those details

the effects of corporate restructuring on aggregate industry specialization it has been widely argued that the purpose of corporate restructuring during the 1980s was to produce a population of more industry specialized competitive firms in response to intensifying global competition a number of studies show that corporate restructuring resulted in increased corporate focus during the 1980s however no study has yet examined whether corporate restructuring resulted in increased specialization at the industry level during the 1980s this study examines this issue first we examine whether or not aggregate industry specialization increased during the 1980s that is we ask did the average firm in any given u s industry become more or less specialized to that industry during the 1980s second we examine whether corporate restructuring was a significant determinant of change in aggregate industry specialization during the 1980s using a sample of 686 four digit sic industries and 64 two digit industry groups this study finds that aggregate industry specialization declined very slightly at both the four digit and two digit level between 1981 and 1989 this study also finds that sell offs of establishments through corporate control transactions or interfirm asset sales had no significant effect on aggregate industry specialization