maritime oil freight flows to 2050 delphi perceptions of maritime specialists abstract this paper aims to synthesise maritime specialists perceptions of changing patterns of maritime oil freight flows to 2050 debate spans published maritime oil flows globally diverse drivers of future flows including economic growth shipping market changes and haul lengths a classic delphi study to explore the perceptions of likely trends and flows to 2050 recruited a panel of early career and established maritime specialists many with long term career commitments to this industry underpinned by market volatility and legislative uncertainty the perceptions of both groups coincided and were conservative local sourcing new arctic seaways and fossil fuel intolerance will tend to reduce oil freight work but perceptions of ship re routing to avoid for example emission control areas and piracy would tend to lengthen hauls in advanced industrial nations reducing energy intensities and diminishing social tolerance of fossil fuels imply gradually reducing maritime oil shipments however to achieve radical national commitments to carbon emissions reductions will necessitate specialist education for naturally conservative maritime professionals and vigorous oil import reduction policies to curtail domestic demand for oil shipments

information processing theory and the multinational enterprise this paper attempts to extend information processing theory so that it can be meaningfully applied to mncs a specific multidimensional framework is developed that can be used to measure the information processing capacities of macro level features of mnc organizational design an applied example transnationalism is used to illustrate how to apply the framework and demonstrate that it can contribute meaningful new insight to this complex organizational problem

uncertainty in the availability of natural resources fossil fuels critical metals and biomass energy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates yet these estimates are often highly uncertain frequently incommensurable and regularly contested this paper explores how the uncertainties surrounding estimates of the availability of fossil fuels biomass and critical metals are conceptualised and communicated the contention is that a better understanding of the uncertainties surrounding resource estimates for both conventional and renewable energy resources can contribute to more effective policy decision making in the long term two complementary approaches for framing uncertainty are considered in detail a descriptive typology of uncertainties and a framework that conceptualises uncertainty as alternative states of incomplete knowledge both have the potential to be useful analytical and communication tools for the three resource types considered here we find that data limitations inconsistent definitions and the use of incommensurable methodologies present a pervasive problem that impedes comparison many aspects of resource uncertainty are also not commonly captured in the conventional resource classification schemes this highlights the need for considerable care when developing and comparing aggregate resource estimates and when using these to inform strategic energy policy decisions

uncertainty avoidance and the preference for innovation championing roles this paper examines the preferences of 4405 individuals in forty three organizations from sixty eight different countries for four innovation championing roles the organizational maverick the network facilitator the transformational leader and the organizational buffer the study shows that the cultural value of uncertainty acceptance is significantly associated with preferences for these four championing roles it suggests that uncertainty accepting societies may be more innovative than uncertainty avoiding societies because of the greater legitimacy of those roles

the new institutional economics this outstanding book presents new original contributions from some of the world s leading economists including ronald coase douglass c north masahiko aoki oliver e williamson and harold demsetz it demonstrates the extent and depth of the new institutional economics research programme which is having a worldwide impact on the economics profession

how reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies according to the long term scenarios of the international energy agency iea and the u s energy information administration eia conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 20

competition marginal cost tariffs and spot pricing in the chilean electric power sector abstract setting up competitiveness and privatizing the power sector has been an important goal of chilean energy policy since 1974 the new organization of the electric sector includes deconcentration of generating and distributing companies a new marginal cost and spot pricing system coordination of generating companies through an economic load dispatching centre eldc and a scheme for sharing transmission lines this paper describes why and how those tasks were carried out in chile

measuring the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration abstract economic assessments of the welfare effects of energy insecurity are typically uncertain and fail to provide clear guidance to policy makers as a result governments have had little analytical support to complement expert judgment in the assessment of energy security this is likely to be inadequate when considering multiple policy goals and in particular the intersections between energy security and climate change mitigation policies this paper presents an alternative approach which focuses on gauging the causes of energy insecurity as a way to assist policy making the paper focuses on the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration and distinguishes between the price and physical availability components of energy insecurity it defines two separate indexes the energy security price index espi based on the measure of market concentration in competitive fossil fuel markets and the energy security physical availability index espai based on the measure of supply flexibility in regulated markets the paper illustrates the application of espi and espai with two case studies france and the united kingdom looking at the evolution of both indexes to 2030

a comparison of oil supply risks in eu us japan china and india under different climate scenarios for many countries the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves in this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the european union united states china japan and india being the five largest importers of oil in the world based on their current supplier portfolio scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil supply projections it is found that risks increase strongly when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account resulting in major oil supply disruptions china faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of india china and us converge over time due to increasing import dependency of china and india japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification for the eu all figures are strongly influenced by russia accounting for 32 of total imports and to a lesser extent norway 11 with high overall risks

oil vulnerability index of oil importing countries abstract this paper assesses the relative oil vulnerability of 26 net oil importing countries for the year 2004 on the basis of various indicators the ratio of value of oil imports to gross domestic product gdp oil consumption per unit of gdp gdp per capita and oil share in total energy supply ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption exposure to geopolitical oil market concentration risks as measured by net oil import dependence diversification of supply sources political risk in oil supplying countries and market liquidity the approach using the principal component technique has been adopted to combine these individual indicators into a composite index of oil vulnerability such an index captures the relative sensitivity of various economies towards developments of the international oil market with a higher index indicating higher vulnerability the results show that there are considerable differences in the values of individual indicators of oil vulnerability and overall oil vulnerability index among the countries both inter and intraregional

oil supply risk and affecting parameters associated with oil supplementation and disruption abstract the fossil fuel energy carriers significantly affect the energy security the oil security has turned to one of the main political agenda by considering the two world s oil crises in this study an index of oil supply vulnerability has been developed to compare the world s top fifteen oil importing south asian countries the index includes comprehensive set of indicators like imported oil over gdp ratio market liquidity gdp per capita geopolitical risk diversification the ratio of oil importation over consumption transportation risk oil price volatility and us volatility two popular techniques composite indicator ci and the principal component analysis pca were used to combine all the aforesaid indicators although numerous techniques have been used to assess the oil vulnerability index for example dea like models and markowitz theory of portfolio none of them incorporated the principal component analysis and composite indicator together to develop an oil vulnerability index results shows that the south asian countries have highest economic supply and overall oil vulnerability risk whereas the second group countries belgium thailand spain netherlands japan korea india and china are in a relatively less risky as compared to south asian countries contrary to this third group of countries are canada singapore uk and france italy germany and us are considered as a least vulnerable country

electricity pricing optimal operation and investment by industrial consumers abstract this paper describes ongoing research in the areas of economically efficient electricity pricing and industrial consumer response a new electricity pricing theory is described that incorporates future uncertainty and intertemporal linkages between decisions it indicates that electricity prices should contain two terms short run marginal cost plus a term that reflects how each particular decision is likely to affect future global welfare we explore a practical implementation using spot prices and forward contracts plus financial instruments for risk sharing and decision coordination and a procedure for developing long term pricing policy the operation of industrial plant has been investigated and models developed to optimize plant behaviour in response to spot prices and forward contracts for electricity these models are described and results of simulation studies discussed the studies illustrate the economic efficiency and risk sharing advantages of this advanced tariff structure compared with a conventional time of use tariff

differences in managerial values a study of u s hong kong and prc managers in this study of convergence divergence of managerial values four western developed measures machiavellianism locus of control intolerance of ambiguity and dogmatism and the four dimensions of the eastern developed chinese value survey confucian dynamism human heartedness integration and moral discipline were the measures used the findings indicate that often times both culture and the business environment interact to create a unique set of managerial values in a country

buyer seller negotiations around the pacific rim differences in fundamental exchange processes the determinants of buyer seller negotiations in four cultures are investigated in a laboratory simulation one hundred thirty eight american 54 chinese 42 japanese and 38 korean business people participated in a two person buyer seller intracultural negotiation simulation in negotiations between americans the use of more problem solving bargaining strategies positively influenced negotiation outcomes in negotiations between chinese more competitive strategies led to better results in japanese and korean negotiations buyers achieved higher economic rewards than sellers in all four cultures bargainers were more satisfied with negotiation outcomes when partners were rated more attractive

japanese and american management theory z and beyond this article analyzes studies comparing japanese and american managers workers and societies in order to consider questions raised by william ouchi s book theory z how american business can meet the japanese challenge the analysis results in 2 general observations 1 theory z management is not likely to become the accepted norm in american companies to the extent that it has in japan and 2 the major conceptual or theoretical lesson we can learn from the japanese is the potential values of developing a management system that is internally consistent that fits societal norms and expectations and that obtains support from the major institutional actors in the world of work

quantifying the supplier portfolio diversity of embodied energy strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience this paper investigates energy resilience of countries by quantifying the supplier diversification of both direct and embodied energy import in particular we quantify two approaches to diversify a country s supplier portfolio by lowering the dependency on each supplier portfolio diversification and by having embodied energy suppliers that are different from its direct energy suppliers portfolio differentiation we examine possibilities for strategic utilization of embodied energy trade to compensate for low diversity of direct energy trade for three types of fossil resources coal oil and gas we find that the diversity of embodied energy import is much greater than that of direct energy import of the three energy resources coal enables countries to adopt portfolio diversification and portfolio differentiation more than gas and oil our results suggest embodied energy can be considered as a transfer of energy resources across national borders that can directly benefit from the diversity of the world energy production by skipping the limited diversity of the world energy export

energy security energy modelling and uncertainty the paper develops a framework to analyze energy security in an expected utility framework where there is a risk of disruption of imported energy the analysis shows the importance of an energy tax as a tool in maximizing expected utility and how the level of that tax varies according to the key parameters of the system risk aversion probability of disruption demand elasticity and cost of disruption

the pros and cons of spot pricing electric utility perspective abstract until recently spot pricing of electrical energy has been an academic curiosity electric utilities by and large do not vary the price of their product by time of day or cost of generation even though such costs vary considerably from peak to off peak periods the primary reason for not using spot or real time pricing has been communication and administrative costs recent advancements in technology have reduced the costs to a level where spot pricing is being considered a viable option for many utilities the remaining obstacles to be resolved are development of hardware and software to administer real time prices customer education to understand and participate in spot pricing programmes and reaching agreements with regulators on appropriate rates

economic development and the demand for energy a historical perspective on the next 20 years abstract this paper draws on evidence from the last two centuries of industrialisation analysing the evolution of energy intensity over the long and short run we argue that the increased specialisation of the fuel mix coupled with accelerating convergence of both the sectoral and technological composition of economies will continue to improve energy intensity of economic output and to reduce the reliance on any single energy resource this analysis suggests that even high growth in per capita income over the next 20 years need not be constrained by resource availability

energy security analysis the case of constrained oil supply for ireland abstract ireland imports 88 of its energy requirements oil makes up 59 of total final energy consumption tfc import dependency low fuel diversity and volatile prices leave ireland vulnerable in terms of energy security this work models energy security scenarios for ireland using long term macroeconomic forecasts to 2050 with oil production and price scenarios from the international monetary fund within the irish times energy systems model the analysis focuses on developing a least cost optimum energy system for ireland under scenarios of constrained oil supply 0 8 annual import growth and 2 annual import decline and subsequent sustained long term price shocks to oil and gas imports the results point to gas becoming the dominant fuel source for ireland at 54 total final energy consumption in 2020 supplanting oil from reference projections of 57 to 10 8 tfc in 2012 the cost of net oil imports stood at 3 6 billion 2 26 gdp the modelled high oil and gas price scenarios show an additional annual cost in comparison to a reference of between 2 9bn and 7 5bn by 2020 1 9 4 9 of gdp to choose to develop a least cost energy system investment and ramifications for energy security are discussed

comparison of china s oil import risk results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach in recent years the international oil price has fluctuated violently bringing about huge risk for the international oil trade in fact the risk of crude oil and petroleum product imports is different because of the different import origins and prices which import risk is lower for china from the perspective of oil supply security how should china portfolio crude oil and petroleum product imports to minimize its oil import risk using portfolio theory and a diversification index approach this paper compares and analyzes the supply price and transport risks of crude oil and petroleum product imports our results show that the following 1 specific risk diversification risk and marine transport risk of china s petroleum product imports are lower than that of crude oil imports 2 the average rate of return of china s petroleum product imports is higher than that of crude oil imports moreover the average import price variance of petroleum product imports is lower than that of crude oil imports thus the systematic risk price risk of petroleum products is lower too therefore from the perspective of oil supply security china should increase petroleum product imports to decrease its oil import risk

assessing the effects of culture on managerial attitudes a three culture test cross cultural studies are inherently difficult because the typical research design fails to differentiate cultural from other environmental influences the present study uses a research design that attempts to isolate the influence of culture japanese chinese and mexican managers their ethnic american counterparts and anglo americans are used to test the model results indicate unique persistent cultural characteristics with the cultural effect varying among the three groups of managers

energy return on energy invested eroi oil prices and energy transitions very little work has been done so far to model test and understand the relationship between oil prices and eroi over time this paper investigates whether a declining eroi is associated with an increasing oil price and speculates on the implications of these results on oil policy a model of the relationship between eroi and oil market prices was developed using basic economic and physical assumptions and non linear least squares regression models to correlate oil production price with eroi using available data from 1954 1996 the model accurately reflects historical oil prices 1954 1996 and it correlates well with historical oil prices 1997 2010 if a linear extrapolation of eroi decline is assumed as eroi declines below 10 highly non linear oil price movements are observed increasing physical oil scarcity is already providing market signals that would stimulate a transition away from oil toward alternative energy sources but price signals of physical oil scarcity are not sufficient to guarantee smooth transitions to alternative fuel sources especially when there is insufficient oil extraction technology development a declining mark up ratio a non linear eroi cost of production relationship and a non linear eroi price relationship

the status of conventional world oil reserves hype or cause for concern the status of world oil reserves is a contentious issue polarised between advocates of peak oil who believe production will soon decline and major oil companies that say there is enough oil to last for decades in reality much of the disagreement can be resolved through clear definition of the grade type and reporting framework used to estimate oil reserve volumes while there is certainly vast amounts of fossil fuel resources left in the ground the volume of oil that can be commercially exploited at prices the global economy has become accustomed to is limited and will soon decline the result is that oil may soon shift from a demand led market to a supply constrained market the capacity to meet the services provided by future liquid fuel demand is contingent upon the rapid and immediate diversification of the liquid fuel mix the transition to alternative energy carriers where appropriate and demand side measures such as behavioural change and adaptation the successful transition to a poly fuel economy will also be judged on the adequate mitigation of environmental and social costs

measuring energy security can the united states achieve oil independence stochastic simulation of the direct economic costs of oil dependence in an uncertain future is proposed as a useful metric of oil dependence the market failure from which these costs arise is imperfect competition in the world oil market chiefly as a consequence of the use of market power by the organization of the petroleum exporting countries opec cartel oil dependence costs can be substantial it is estimated that oil dependence costs to the us economy in 2008 will exceed 500 billion other costs such as military expenditures or foreign policy constraints are deemed to be largely derivative of the actual or potential economic costs of oil dependence the use of quantifiable economic costs as a security metric leads to a measurable definition of oil independence or oil security which can be used to test the ability of specific policies to achieve oil independence in an uncertain future

the impact of strategy on conflict a cross national comparative study of u s and japanese firms an empirical test of 290 u s and 653 japanese managers using the miles and snow typology provides a cross national examination of strategy s impact on conflict results substantially support the study s predictions and indicate that firms should 1 monitor their conflict handling mechanisms 2 emphasize integrative approaches and 3 appropriately use formalization for conflict handling despite a convergence of management practices globally findings indicate that considerable differences still exist between u s and japanese firms

impacts of the structures of electricity and gas tariffs on the rational use of energy abstract theoretically optimal tariff structures should reflect long run marginal costs an international comparison shows considerable differences in the structures of energy prices which can only be explained by a different philosophy of price setting examples show the influence of tariff strutures on the profitability of rational energy use in germany field experiments were started in 1989 with time of use electricity rates for residential customers dependent on marginal costs first simulations show a considerable potential for load shifting in the residential sector

assessing the date of the global oil peak the need to use 2p reserves combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable 2p oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource limited peak of conventional oil production the data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close many analysts who rely only on proved 1p oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion but proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries being variously under reported over reported and not reported reliance on 1p data has led to a number of misconceptions including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to turn resources into reserves these misconceptions have been widely held including within academia governments some oil companies and organisations such as the iea in addition to conventional oil the world contains large quantities of non conventional oil most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non conventional oils are unlikely to come on stream fast enough to offset conventional s decline to determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non conventional oils as well as oil from gas coal and biomass and of oil substitution such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead times as well as rate constraints on investment pollution and net energy return

the end of cheap oil bottom up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves there is a lively debate between concerned and unconcerned analysts regarding the future availability and affordability of oil we critically examine two interrelated and seemingly plausible ar

methodological and theoretical issues and advancements in cross cultural research this paper summarizes the issues and concerns of critics of cross cultural research and discusses how they are being addressed by researchers given the state of the art and the complexity of this field of research the author recommends more inductive research and the pursuit of appropriate but not overambitious sampling designs so as to increase our understanding of cultures and encourage the building of richer theory bases taking an optimistic view of the field the author predicts useful contributions by researchers which will enrich the art and science of cross cultural management

spot pricing of electricity arguments and prospects abstract the paper in this issue extend the early literature on spot pricing but differences of opinion still remain between proponents and critics mathematical models designed to prove that spot pricing is socially optimal are unpersuasive regrettably there are no further empirical estimates of the consequences costs and benefits of spot pricing but previous studies suggest that it would be profitable and economic for a significant subset of large industrial users current moves to deregulate and privatize electricity industries are likely to stimulate rather than hinder the adoption of spot pricing

indicators of energy security in industrialised countries energy security has become a popular catch phrase both in the scientific arena as well as in the political discussion yet in general the applied concepts of energy security are rather vague this paper sheds some light on concepts and indicators of energy security first we conceptually discuss the issue of energy supply security and explain why it is not to handle by one science alone and what economics may contribute in order to structure the topic after providing a brief survey of existing attempts to define or measure energy security we suggest an additional dimension along which indicators of energy security may be classified ex post and ex ante indicators finally we illustrate our concept on the basis of several simplified indicators while ex post indicators are mostly based on price developments ex ante indicators are to a greater extent aimed at illustrating potential problems our illustration suggests that it is worthwhile to take into account the market structure along with the political stability of exporting countries

corporate leaders in britain and america a cross national analysis this study tested for the extent of similarity between 1708 american senior vice presidents and those of 418 british counterparts the sample was drawn from the fortune 500 and the times 500 being representative of the top management teams of the largest national companies dominating domestic economies

a blessing in disguise the implications of high global oil prices for the north american market abstract we examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in north america this production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable we first discuss the factors that have enabled the united states to expand production so rapidly and the glut of oil inventory that has accumulated in the midwest as a result of logistical challenges and export restrictions next we assess the extent to which the increase in u s domestic production will affect global supply conditions and whether the u s experience can be repeated in other countries with unconventional oil sources the evidence suggests that even in the best case scenario the increase in u s oil production is unlikely to have a large effect on the global oil market s demand supply balance so its effect on the price of oil is expected to be limited furthermore the united states enjoys unique infrastructural and technological advantages that make it unlikely that rapid increases in unconventional production can be achieved elsewhere

global oil depletion a review of the evidence within the polarised and contentious debate over future oil supply a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak and subsequent decline in production but although liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies the growing debate on peak oil has relatively little influence on energy and climate policy with this in mind the uk energy research centre ukerc has conducted an independent thorough and systematic review of the evidence with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus the study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in depth literature review analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison of global supply forecasts this communication summarises the main findings of the ukerc study a key conclusion is that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020

energy price slump and policy response in the coal chemical industry district a case study of ordos with a system dynamics model we employ system dynamics method towards a coal chemical industry district economy evolution model using coal industry the coal chemical industry their downstream industries and the manufacture related service industry moreover we construct energy price and policy response scenarios based on ordos management experience the results show that the energy price slump had a negative impact on the overall economic development of the coal chemical industry district despite promoting non resource industries furthermore policies had different effects on the industry s output value and profit in the long term developing alternative industries ai helps increase the industrial output value and profit decreasing value added tax vat has immediate results and a distinctive effect on industrial short term production value and profit its long term effect being limited the effect of production limit pl on industrial profit is stronger than output value and financial support fs is more conducive to improve the latter however coal mining and coal chemical loan increases decrease the gross industrial profit level technology innovation ti has the best individual policy overall effect on production value and profits furthermore the simultaneous implementation of pl ti and ai can generate the synergy effect for each of them and the simultaneous implementation of vat and one or couple of other policies will generate the crowding out effect both for vat and other policies

the role of affect in cross cultural negotiations this paper presents a model of cross cultural negotiations which describes how the affect negotiators experience during negotiations influences the character of the negotiation process and its outcomes three categories of determinants of negotiator affect are proposed individual differences cross cultural differences and contextual factors the ways in which negotiator affect influences information processing during negotiations are then described it is suggested that the influence of affect through substantive information processing may lead to either positive or negative spirals in negotiations influencing the ability of negotiators to reach an integrative solution finally the ways in which negotiators can break out of destructive negative spirals by engaging in motivated rather than substantive information processing are discussed

gas generation and wind power a review of unlikely allies in the united kingdom and ireland no single solution currently exists to achieve the utopian desire of zero fossil fuel electricity generation until such time it is evident that the energy mix will contain a large variation in stochastic and intermittent sources of renewable energy such as wind power the increasing prominence of wind power in pursuit of legally binding european energy targets enables policy makers and conventional generating companies to plan for the unique challenges such a natural resource presents this drive for wind has been highly beneficial in terms of security of energy supply and reducing greenhouse gas emissions however it has created an unusual ally in natural gas this paper outlines the suitability and challenges faced by gas generating units in their utilisation as key assets for renewable energy integration and the transition to a low carbon future the single electricity market of the republic of ireland and northern ireland and the british electricity transmission trading agreement market are the backdrop to this analysis both of these energy markets have a reliance on gas generation matching the proliferation of wind power the unlikely and mostly ignored relationship between natural gas generation and wind power due to policy decisions and market forces is the necessity of gas to act as a bridging fuel this review finds gas generation to be crucially important to the continued growth of renewable energy additionally it is suggested that power market design should adequately reward the flexibility required to securely operate a power system with high penetrations of renewable energy which in most cases is provided by gas generation

future oil supply the changing stance of the international energy agency the iea was established in 1974 with a mandate to promote energy security amongst its members namely the states of the oecd and to advise those members on sound energy policy its recent forecasts of the medium and long term prospects for oil supply however have wavered alternating from optimistic to pessimistic and back again for policy makers such inconsistency is difficult to deal with firstly we examine whether the changing outlooks seen in iea forecasts made between 2007 and 2010 truly reflect a demonstrable underlying change in the known facts and we can find no such factual changes reported by the iea secondly we examine whether the serious criticisms of the iea s 2008 forecast made by other analysts have yet been addressed and we conclude that they have not thirdly we consider the possible effects of the current economic downturn upon the iea s assumptions and upon future oil supply we conclude that all the forecasts made by the iea appear to be too optimistic throughout this period

improving market place efficiency in the non oil energy sectors abstract oil sector markets have long been acclaimed as being efficient modern technology now allows the markets of non oil energy sectors to become similar to oil sector markets in the use of spot pricing closely related buying buy back and re selling prices buying fuels and energy forwards futures markets in fuels and energy agents and brokers using these means the non oil energy sector markets can now be made more efficient leading to reduced energy sector costs and therefore reduced energy prices this topic will be fully explored in a special issue of energy policy to be published in august 1988

a comparison of canadian and japanese cognitive styles implications for management interaction many american and canadian companies seeking to form joint ventures and alliances with japanese companies or to negotiate contracts with them have discovered that the interaction can be difficult and frustrating value differences and preferences for different management practices have been identified that contribute to these interaction problems however little research has investigated potential differences in cognitive style that might also contribute to intercultural conflict this study compares samples of canadian and japanese mba students using the myers briggs type inventory mbti and links the findings to interaction difficulties reported in the literature

energy requirements of consumption urban form climatic and socio economic factors rebounds and their policy implications household consumption requires energy to be used at all stages of the economic process thereby directly and indirectly leading to environmental impacts across the entire production chain the levels structure and determinants of energy requirements of household consumption therefore constitute an important avenue of research incorporating the full upstream requirements into the analysis helps to avoid simplistic conclusions which would actually only imply shifts between consumption categories without taking the economy wide effects into account this paper presents the investigation of the direct and indirect primary energy requirements of australian households contrasting urban suburban and rural consumption patterns as well as inter and intra regional levels of inequality in energy requirements furthermore the spatial and socio economic drivers of energy consumption for different categories of energy requirements are identified and quantified conclusions regarding the relationships between energy requirements household characteristics urban form and urbanization processes are drawn and the respective policy implications are explored

the cultural relativity of organizational practices and theories this paper summarizes the author s recently published findings about differences in people s work related values among 50 countries in view of these differences ethnocen tric management theories those based on the value system of one particular country have become untenable this concept is illustrated for the fields of leadership organization and motivation a key issue for organization science is the influence of national cultures on introduction management twenty or even 10 years ago the existence of a relationship be management and tween management and national cultures was far from obvious to many and it national cultures may not be obvious to everyone even now in the 1950s and 60s the dominant be lief at least in europe and the u s was that management was something univer sal there were principles of sound management which existed regardless of na tional environments if national or local practice deviated from these principles it was time to change local practice in the future the universality of sound manage ment practices would lead to societies becoming more and more alike this ap plied even to the poor countries of the third world which would become rich as well and would be managed just like the rich countries also the differences be tween management in the first and second world capitalist and socialist would disappear in fact under the surface they were thought to be a lot smaller than was officially recognized this way of thinking which dominated the 1950s and 60s is known as the convergence hypothesis during the 1970s the belief in the unavoidable convergence of management prac tices waned it was too obviously in conflict with the reality we saw around us at the same time supranational organizations like the european common market which were founded very much on the convergence belief had to recognize the stubbornness of national differences even within existing nations regional dif ferences became more rather than less accentuated the welsh the flemish the basques the bangladeshi the quebecois defended their own identity and this was difficult to reconcile with a management philosophy of convergence it slowly became clear that national and even regional cultures do matter for management the national and regional differences are not disappearing they are here to stay in fact these differences may become one of the most crucial problems for man agement in particular for the management of multinational multicultural orga nizations whether public or private

a unified world oil market regions in physical economic geographic and political space although there is a general consensus that the market is unified here we quantify the factors that create regions by analyzing the price relation between 33 crude oils adf statistics indicate that 447 of the 528 crude oil pairings cointegrate 81 do not the presence absence of cointegration is analyzed using a logit model the likelihood that the prices for two crude oils cointegrate depends on their physical characteristics density and sulfur content economic factors country risk for the nation of origin their geographic location distance between supply ports and political factors opec membership over the sample period the technology to refine heavy crude oils penetrates the market and this reduces the price difference between heavy and light crude oils the effect of country risk implies that crude oils from high risk nations are not perfect substitutes for crude oils of similar quality from low risk nations finally crude oils from widely separated suppliers are more likely to cointegrate than crude oils from near by nations which suggests consumers diversify supply across transportation chokepoints for this sample these sources of regionalization add 0 20 per barrel to the 2 86 average price difference between crude oils in the same market together these factors have important implications for the efficacy of policy aimed at reducing dependence on unreliable suppliers and the spill over effects of holding inventories

the impact of opec on east asian oil import security a multidimensional analysis abstract east asian countries such as china japan and south korea are major importers in the international oil market therefore oil import security is critical to sustainable economic development in these countries this paper uses a modified two stage dea like model to investigate the impact of the organization of petroleum exporting countries opec on oil import security in the east asian region over time specifically three dimensional variables were introduced to the model the opec internal dimension the opec and asian country interaction dimension and the international external dimension the empirical results show a substantial difference between china and the other two countries in terms of these dimensions although the impact of opec on china s oil security has increased over time its impact on japan has declined political uncertainty in opec countries and oil price volatility are the major issues for china whereas cost is the key area of concern for japan south korea s concerns are less clear the results of this study lay an important foundation for discussing policy issues involved in regional cooperation integration and sustainable growth in the east asian region

oil futures a comparison of global supply forecasts this paper compares and evaluates fourteen contemporary forecasts of global supply of conventional oil and provides some observations on their relative plausibility despite the wide range of modelling approaches used and multiplicity of assumptions made it is shown that forecasts can be usefully compared along two dimensions namely shape of future production profile and assumed or implied ultimately recoverable resource of conventional oil other differences between forecasts are either secondary or are components of these two parameters the paper shows how large differences in the assumed size of the resource make relatively little difference to the timing of a global peak in conventional oil production it also examines the impact of rates of discovery reserves growth and depletion on the forecast date of peak and shows how forecasts that delay this peak until beyond 2030 rest on assumptions that are at best optimistic and at worst implausible

long term energy services security what is it and how can it be measured and valued abstract the paper reviews some recent approaches towards measuring the extent of long term energy security and security externality valuation it starts out to discuss the contextual connotations of notions of energy security in medium to long term time frames and reviews some indicators that have been proposed to quantify it special attention is paid to two of these approaches which the authors helped to develop i e diversity based indices and the supply demand index the paper takes issue with conventional welfare economic approaches that neglect i the scope on the demand side for raising security and ii negative feedback mechanisms of socio political impacts of international rent transfers in fossil fuels exporting countries the concept of energy services security is proposed with a demand side focus this enables application of an integrated approach to gauge the resilience of a society to meet the needs of its population for energy services over longer timescales ahead from various interrelated perspectives propositions are made on the attribution of security externalities to the use of fossil fuels policies and suggestions for further improvements of measures for energy services security

information technology and efficient pricing providing a competitive edge for electric utilities abstract electricity has traditionally been generated and sold as a homogeneous commodity with a single price this practice has less to do with the nature of electricity than with the lack of technology to distinguish among each kilwatthour based on what and when it is used this article argues that with the recent advances in information and communication technologies the time has arrived to market electricity as something other than a homogeneous commodity by pricing electricity according to its time of use for example electricity will be more efficiently utilized benefitting both the customers and the electric companies

indicators for energy security the concept of energy security is widely used yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation in this research we have provided an overview of available indicators for long term security of supply sos we distinguished four dimensions of energy security that relate to the availability accessibility affordability and acceptability of energy and classified indicators for energy security according to this taxonomy there is no one ideal indicator as the notion of energy security is highly context dependent rather applying multiple indicators leads to a broader understanding incorporating these indicators in model based scenario analysis showed accelerated depletion of currently known fossil resources due to increasing global demand coupled with increasing spatial discrepancy between consumption and production international trade in energy carriers is projected to have increased by 142 in 2050 compared to 2008 oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a few countries up to 2030 after which production from other regions diversifies the market under stringent climate policies this diversification may not occur due to reduced demand for oil possible benefits of climate policy include increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources

diversification of oil import sources and energy security a key strategy or an elusive objective this paper explores the relationship between the diversification of sources of imported oil and energy security of oil importing countries it examines the importance of diversification policy for oil importers explains why oil importers implement oil diversification policy and contextualizes the oil import diversification strategy in the overall energy security policy of oil importers the paper analyzes the factors and the contexts that affect the level of importance assigned to oil import diversification policy in oil importing countries and the limitations that may affect the successful implication of oil import diversification policy the examples are drawn from the world s top three oil importers the united states japan and china the policymakers in these and other oil importing countries place much importance on energy security the diversification of oil import sources is used as one of the strategies to enhance energy security in oil importing countries this paper is important for policymakers in oil importing countries as it provides them with a qualitative conceptual framework with which to evaluate the need to diversify their countries sources of imported oil and with which to identify the likely limitations to the successful implementation of oil import diversification policy

a cross cultural comparative study of managerial job attitudes effective managerial performance is influenced by the types of rewards which managers seek in their work environment and by their perceptions of the degree to which their job expectations are being satisfied this research provides empirical evidence on the nature of job related values and outcomes in 4 countries canada france japan and the uk the survey data reveal that the types of job outcomes sought by managers differ significantly from one culture to another the results should be of practical value to companies seeking to develop more effective management motivational devices in the countries studied moreover the approach and methodology may provide a useful model for further cross cultural studies

alternatives to conventional crude oil when how quickly and market driven abstract we examine the effect of uncertainty concerning remaining supplies of conventional crude oil and its production path on the date alternative fuels will be needed the quantity of alternative fuels needed and how this uncertainty affects firms willingness to provide alternatives in a timely fashion despite large uncertainties about the quantity of oil that remains and its production path the start date for replacements is likely to fall within a twenty two year period that is narrower and earlier than previous estimates the twenty two year window represents considerable uncertainty about the date of the peak and this uncertainty creates an asymmetry in the strategy that maximizes the welfare of firms relative to total social welfare which works against the market s ability to generate a smooth transition from oil to alternative fuels the timeliness of this transition is critical the production paths generated here suggest that 10 million barrels per day or more of alternative fuels will be needed within a decade of the peak in production of conventional crude oil

when in rome the effects of cultural adaptation on intercultural business negotiations drawing on social identity and similarity attraction theories as well as empirical studies in intercultural communication hypotheses were developed to test the effects of three degrees of adaptive behaviors during intercultural buyer seller negotiations hypotheses covered both the positive and negative effects of adaptation on the adjudged interpersonal attractiveness of the adaptor these hypotheses were tested in two experimental studies using scenario based manipulations the first study looked at american subjects responses to adaptive behaviors of japanese business people to test the generalizability of these findings to a less familiar culture a replication looking at american subjects responses to adaptive behaviors of korean business people was also conducted the findings partially support the notion that moderate adaptation may be the optimal strategy in intercultural negotiations moderate adaptation was found to improve the adjudged attraction of the japanese business people relative to no adaptation and substantial adaptation however this finding was not replicated with korean business people

price and productivity change following deregulation the u s experience no real world market is likely to be perfectly contestable anymore than it is to be perfectly competitive yet like its predecessor the contestability benchmark proves highly useful as a framework for evaluating policies and outcomes under the contestability framework entry and price regulation is deemed inappropriate in industries which do not have system wide natural monopoly characteristics on this criterion brokerage airline trucking long distance telephone and terminal equipment should not be regulated true these industries may be characterised by some elements of scale economy such as economies of vehicle size so that at some level city pair routes only a few firms may serve but industry performance need not suffer in such an unregulated environment impediments to entry and exit not concentration or scale of operations may be the primary source of prices that are not welfare optimal even in the presence of natural monopoly characteristics it is important to isolate those markets which are not yet structurally competitive as in the case of coal shipments over which the railroads are judged to possess market dominance or in local telephone service it can be argued that the latter should continue to be overseen by regulators while markets which are controlled by competitive forces deriving from actual or potential competition or taking other indirect but effective forms should be free from traditional regulation thus unlike privatisation policy in the united kingdom described in the companion article by kay and thompson i985 us deregulatory policy can be construed as having a coherent rationale the nature and extent of deregulation match remarkably well with the policy prescription of the theory this paper analyses the consequences that have emerged under deregulation in terms of the following behavioural properties predicted by multi product competition and contestability theory a variety of products will emerge each of which will yield zero economic profit the revenues from any subset of the products must exceed the incremental costs of those products so that no cross subsidy can exist prices for each product will equal or exceed marginal costs and an equilibrium market structure will minimise costs for the industry see baumol

effective climate energy solutions escape routes and peak oil abstract many well intended climate energy strategies are ineffective in the absence of serious environmental regulation this holds among others for direct support of clean energy voluntary energy conservation technical standards on a limited set of products unilateral stringent carbon pricing and awaiting peak oil as a climate strategy all of these suffer from escape routes that indirectly increase co2 emissions and thus make the original strategy ineffective on the other hand environmental regulation alone may lead to a myopia bias stimulating early dominance of cost effective technologies and a focus on incremental innovations associated with such technologies rather than on radical innovations although adopting a partial viewpoint keeps the analysis simple we urgently need a more inclusive systems perspective on climate solutions this will allow the formulation of an effective climate policy package that addresses the various escape routes

on the properties of nodal price response matrix in electricity markets we establish sufficient conditions for nodal price response matrix in electric power system to be symmetric and negative semi definite the results are applicable for electricity markets with nonlinear and intertemporal constraints

customer preferences for reliable power supply using data on actual choices of back up equipment this paper empirically examines customer preferences for the reliable sources of electricity using data obtained from a survey of back up systems owned by large computer users in japan the empirical results based on probabilistic discrete choice models indicate that 1 customers face a trade off between the price and the reliability of the power supply and 2 customer characteristics such as types of business and levels of electricity usage have significant impacts on the choice of back up apparatuses the estimates of cost changes that would offset reliability changes imply that the financial and communications sectors are more concerned about reliability than are other sectors copyright 1994 by mit press

understanding the domain of cross national buyer seller interactions cross national face to face selling has thus far received very little scholarly treatment in marketing literature with few notable exceptions most existing research in this area has been fragmentary and opportunistic these problems are largely because of the lack of a broad generalizable framework within which to conceptualize and execute research studies in offering such a conceptual framework this article looks at buyer seller interactions from a communication perspective

conceptualizing energy security abstract energy security 1 is one of the main targets of energy policy however the term has not been clearly defined which makes it hard to measure and difficult to balance against other policy objectives we review the multitude of definitions of energy security they can be characterized according to the sources of risk the scope of the impacts and the severity filters in the form of the speed size sustention spread singularity and sureness of impacts using a stylized case study for three european countries we illustrate how the selection of conceptual boundaries along these dimensions determines the outcome this can be avoided by more clearly separating between security of supply and other policy objectives this leads us to the definition of energy security as the continuity of energy supplies relative to demand

australian and japanese value stereotypes a two country study australians and japanese working in australian and japanese organizations in both countries were involved in a research project that estimated stereotypical views of national culture respondents rated the importance of cultural values in australia and japan using the list of values lov instrument the results of a discriminant analysis suggested that potentially detrimental misunderstandings about their respective cultures may exist between australians and japanese engaged in mutual international business

the end of peak oil why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials up until recently peak oil was a major discussion point crossing from academic research into mainstream journalism yet it now attracts far less interest this paper evaluates the reasons for this and on going relevance of peak oil considering variations in predictive dates for the phenomenon supported by technological economic and political issues using data from agencies the validity of each position is assessed looking at reserves industrial developments and alternative fuels the complicating issue of demand is also considered the conclusions are that supported by commercial interests an unsubstantiated belief in market and technical solutions and a narrow paradigmatic focus critics of peak oil theory have used unreliable reserve data optimistic assumptions about utilisation of unconventional supplies and unrealistic predictions for alternative energy production to discredit the evidence that the resource limited peak in the world s production of conventional oil has arrived diverting discussion from what should be a serious topic for energy policy how we respond to decreasing supplies of one of our most important energy sources