where do markets come from production markets have two sides producers are a fully connected clique transacting with buyers as a separate but aggregated clique each producer is a distinctive firm with a distinctive product each side continually monitors reactions of the other through the medium of a joint social construction the schedule of terms of trade each producer is guided in choice of volume by the tangible outcomes of other producers not by speculation on hypothetical reactions of buyers to its actions each producer acts purely on self interest based on observed actions of all others summarized through a feedback process the summary is the terms of trade schedule which reduces to constant price only in limiting cases the market emerges as a structure of roles with a differentiated niche for each firm explicit formulae both for firms and for market aggregates are obtained by comparative statics methods for one family of assumptions about cost structures and about buyers evaluations of differentiated products not just any set of firms can sustain terms of trade with any set of buyers there prove to be three main kinds of markets and three sorts of market failure within a parameter space that is specified in detail one sort of market paradox has a madison avenue flavor another is more conventional grind and a third crowded is a new form not included in any existing theory of markets current american industrial markets are drawn on for 20 illustrations of which three are presented in some detail inequality in firms market shares measured by gini coefficients is discussed

the differential regional effects of monetary policy this paper examines whether monetary policy has similar effects across regions in the united states impulse response functions from an estimated structural vector autoregression reveal a core of regions new england mideast plains southeast and the far west that respond to monetary policy changes in ways that closely approximate the u s average response of the three noncore regions one great lakes is noticeably more sensitive to monetary policy changes and two southwest and rocky mountains are found to be much less sensitive a state level version of the model is estimated and used to provide evidence on the channels for monetary policy

states and the business cycle abstract we model the us business cycle using a dynamic factor model that identifies common factors underlying fluctuations in state level income and employment growth we find three such common factors each of which is associated with a set of factor loadings that indicate the extent to which each state s economy is related to the national business cycle according to the factor loadings there is a great deal of heterogeneity in the nature of the links between state and national economies in addition to exhibiting geographic patterns the closeness of state economies to the national business cycle is related not only to differences in industry mix but also to non industry variables such as agglomeration and neighbor effects finally we find that the common factors tend to explain large proportions of the total variability in state level business cycles although again there is a great deal of cross state heterogeneity

rising residential rents in chinese mega cities the role of monetary policy although there have been a large number of studies carried out on fluctuations in housing prices little is known about what causes changes in residential rents which are inextricably intertwined with urban living standards this is especially noteworthy in chinese cities which are now being challenged by the housing market frenzies shift share analysis is proposed to evaluate all possible triggers of residential rent inflation in three cities during the 2001 2013 period which covers two distinct monetary policy regimes in china it is found that the recent rise in residential rent comes as a result of aggregate inflation associated with an expansionary monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis and an all encompassing and stable policy stance should therefore be adopted

monetary policy housing and heterogeneous regional markets we quantify the importance of heterogeneity for monetary policy using a new heterogeneous agent var havar model that integrates national monetary financial markets with regional housing markets via the mortgage rate although the havar model has linear regional vars its aggregate impulse responses exhibit two nonlinearities 1 time variation stemming from aggregation over heterogeneous regions and 2 state dependence on initial economic conditions in regions thus monetary policy has long and variable lags because monetary transmission depends on the extent and nature of regional heterogeneity which both vary over time the model is estimated with data for u s regions from 1986 to 1996 and simulated to show how coastal housing booms might influence the efficacy of monetary policy

risk sharing by households within and across regions and industries abstract cochrane 1991 journal of political economy 99 957 976 and mace 1991 journal of political economy 99 928 956 test if risk sharing across households is complete in the sense that household consumption moves one for one with aggregate consumption in their studies the source of income risk is idiosyncratic and agents can share risk across the entire economy using a sample of households from the panel study on income dynamics psid we explore whether households share the risk associated with their industries and regions across households in other regions and industries we find that a large fraction of risk faced by households is not shared across regions and industries

a status based model of market competition this article explores the significance of status processes for generating and reproducing hierarchy among producers in a market it develops a conception of a market as a status order in which each

the propagation of regional recessions this paper develops a framework for inferring common markov switching components in a panel data set with large cross section and time series dimensions we apply the framework to studying similarities and dierences across u s states in the timing of business cycles we hypothesize that there exists a small number of cluster designations with individual states in a given cluster sharing certain business cycle characteristics we nd that although oil producing and agricultural states can sometimes experience a separate recession from the rest of the united states for the most part dierences across states appear to be a matter of timing with some states entering recession or recovering before others jel c11 c32 e32

fairness in uncertainty some limits and misinterpretations of actuarial fairness the recent proliferation of new data and technologies enables increasingly finer personalization of products and prices in every domain in insurance this revives and enlarges old debates around fairness that have never been completely settled we will argue that the commonly accepted actuarial fairness as based on the individual cost of risk derives in fact from a conflation while it indicates the average cost for a group of insureds from the perspective of an insurance company and is therefore sound from a business profitability viewpoint it is arguable whether it represents the fair price for the individual insured we first show in a historical perspective the intertwinement of conceptions of fairness with knowledge in order to point to the alternative to actuarial fairness for insurance we then describe the intrinsic difference between the insured and the insurer or portfolio manager when underwriting an insurance contract finally we build on this distinction to discuss the meaning of fairness in insurance prices we thus hope to re center the debate around insurance fairness on its underlying solidarity mechanisms rather than technical and actuarial considerations

forecasting national recessions using state level data a large literature studies the information contained in national level economic indicators such as nancial and aggregate economic activity variables for forecasting u s business cycle phases expansions and recessions in this paper we investigate whether there is additional information regarding business cycle phases contained in subnational measures of economic activity using a probit model to predict the nber expansion and recession classification we assess the forecasting benets of adding state level employment growth to a common list of national level predictors as state level data adds a large number of variables to the model we employ a bayesian model averaging procedure to construct forecasts based on a variety of forecast evaluation metrics we find that including state level employment growth substantially improves short horizon forecasts of the business cycle phase the gains in forecast accuracy are concentrated during months of national recession posterior inclusion probabilities indicate substantial uncertainty regarding which states belong in the model highlighting the importance of the bayesian model averaging approach

borders and business cycles abstract we document that business cycles of u s census regions are substantially more synchronized than those of european countries data from regions within european countries confirm a european border effect within country correlations are substantially larger than cross country correlations these results continue to hold after controlling for exogenous factors such as distance and size we consider the role of four factors that have received attention in the debate about emu sectoral specialization the level of trade monetary policy and fiscal policy we find that the lower level of trade between european countries explains most of the observed border effect

how regions react to recessions resilience and the role of economic structure martin r sunley p gardiner b and tyler p how regions react to recessions resilience and the role of economic structure regional studies this paper examines how employment in the major uk regions has reacted to the four major recessions of the last 40 years namely 1974 76 1979 83 1990 93 and 2008 10 the notions of resistance and recoverability are used to examine these reactions the analysis reveals both continuities and significant changes in the regional impact of recession from one economic cycle to the next further while economic structure is found to have exerted some influence on the resistance and recoverability of certain regions in general region specific or competitiveness effects appear to have played an equally if not more significant role

measuring business cycles a modern perspective in the first half of this century special attention was given to two features of the business cycle 1 the comovement of many individual economic series and 2 the different behavior of the economy during expansions and contractions both of these attributes were ignored in many subsequent business cycle models which were often linear representations of a single macroeconomic aggregate however recent theoretical and empirical research has revived interest in each attribute separately notably dynamic factor models have been used to obtain a single common factor from a set of macroeconomic variables and nonlinear models have been used to describe the regime switching nature of aggregate output we survey these two strands of research and then provide some suggestive empirical analysis in an effort to unite the two literatures and to assess their usefulness in a statistical characterization of business cycle dynamics

twister employment responses to the 3 may 1999 oklahoma city tornado this research examined the impact of the 3 may 1999 tornado on the oklahoma city labour market we estimated time series models that allow for time varying variance in employment growth the models include intervention variables designed to capture the tornado s effect at initial impact as well as over the post tornado period in terms of total employment growth the oklahoma city metropolitan statistical area msa experienced an increase in employment growth and a reduction in labour market risk in the sample period following the tornado the analysis also examined the effect of the weather event on eight industrial sectors five of eight sectors experienced significant decreases in labour market risk after the tornado our evidence suggests that oklahoma city and surrounding communities that make up the metropolitan statistical area survived the disaster without suffering any extended adverse labour market effects our results indicate that at least in the aggregate the labour market improved what

the forms and limits of insurance solidarity what makes insurance special among risk technologies is the particular way in which it links solidarity and technical rationality on one hand within insurance practices risk is always defined in technical terms it is related to monetary measurement of value and to statistical probability calculated for a limited population on the other hand and at the same time insurance has an inherent connection to solidarity when taking out an insurance one participates in the risk pool within which each member is reciprocally responsible for others risks the combination of technical controllability and solidarity has made insurance a successful tool for governing welfare societies during the twentieth century from the point of view of business ethics it is interesting that as we argue in this article the connection between insurance and solidarity is not limited to social welfare assemblages but is evident in relation to private insurance as well at the same time however it is important to understand that insurance does not advance all forms of solidarity hence this theoretical article analyzes the specific conceptions of solidarity that the different forms of insurance practice produce particular emphasis is put on the distinction between chance solidarity and subsidizing solidarity the main questions of the article are what kinds of conceptions of solidarity are built in the insurance technology and how are the limits of solidarity defined and justified in different forms of insurance

one for some or one for all taylor rules and interregional heterogeneity we document a novel empirical phenomenon the u s federal reserve appears to set interest rates partly in response to regional economic disparities this result is robust even after controlling for factors such as the central bank s forecasts and a battery of explanatory variables we argue that this likely does not reflect an explicit concern about regional differences by policymakers but instead can be explained by a model with nonlinear regional phillips curves consistent with the predictions of this model we find that the federal reserve responds disproportionately to fluctuations in low unemployment states alternative explanations cannot account for this finding

business cycle turning points a new coincident index and tests of duration dependence based on a dynamic factor model with regime switching the synthesis of the dynamic factor model of stock and watson 1989 and the regime switching model of hamilton 1989 proposed by diebold and rudebusch 1996 potentially encompasses both features of the business cycle identified by burns and mitchell 1946 1 comovement among economic variables through the cycle and 2 nonlinearity in its evolution however maximum likelihood estimation has required approximation recent advances in multimove gibbs sampling methodology open the way to approximation free inference in such non gaussian nonlinear models this paper estimates the model for u s data and attempts to address three questions are both features of the business cycle empirically relevant might the implied new index of coincident indicators be a useful one in practice do the resulting estimates of regime switches show evidence of duration dependence the answers to all three would appear to be yes

model averaging in markov switching models predicting national recessions with regional data this paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing markov switching models in the empirical application we forecast u s business cycle turning points with state level employment data we find that forecasts obtained with our best combination scheme provide timely updates of u s recessions in that they outperform a notoriously difficult benchmark to beat the anxious index from the survey of professional forecasters for short term forecasts

how fair is actuarial fairness insurance is pervasive in many social settings as a cooperative device based on risk pooling it serves to attenuate the adverse consequences of various risks health unemployment natural catastrophes and so forth by offering policyholders coverage against the losses implied by adverse events in exchange for the payment of premiums in the insurance industry the concept of actuarial fairness serves to establish what could be adequate fair premiums accordingly premiums paid by policyholders should match as closely as possible their risk exposure i e their expected losses such premiums are the product of the probabilities of losses and the expected losses this article presents a discussion of the fairness of actuarial fairness through three steps 1 defining the concept based on its formulation within the insurance industry 2 determining in which sense it may be about fairness and 3 raising some objections to the actual fairness of actuarial fairness the necessity of a normative evaluation of actuarial fairness is justified by the influence of the concept on the current reforms of public insurance systems and the fact that it highlights the question of the repartition of the gains and burdens of social cooperation

sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment a substantial fraction of cyclical unemployment is better characterized as fluctuations of the frictional or natural rate than as deviations from some relatively stable natural rate shifts of employment demand between sectors of the economy necessitate continuous labor reallocation since it takes time for workers to find new jobs some unemployment is unavoidable this paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies unlike those in the sixties were induced by unusual structural shifts within the u s economy simple time series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market these models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructed

employment fluctuations in u s regions and industries the roles of national region specific and industry specific shocks this study quantifies the roles of national region specific and industry specific shocks in aggregate employment fluctuations in u s regions and industries variation among the growth rates of major regions and industries is decomposed into unobserved national region and industry specific components the results reject the view that any heterogeneity in regional fluctuations is attributable to differences in industry composition after controlling for industry mix effects roughly 40 of the variance of the cyclical innovation in any region s growth rate is particular to that region in addition region specific shocks appear to propagate across regions over time

jobless recoveries stagnation or structural change within the existing literature a number of competing explanations for jobless recoveries have emerged on the one hand there is evidence of dynamic structural change including offshoring globalization and technological advances that are resulting in the loss of middle skill routine employment other studies emphasize a less dynamic economy with slower growth reduced labor market fluidity a decline in startup activity and even economic stagnation this study exploits variation among u s states to assess the degree that stagnation and or important structural changes in the economy contribute to the recent phenomenon of jobless recoveries we find support for both the stagnation and structural change theories of jobless recoveries on the stagnation side we find evidence that lower startup rates are a significant predictor of jobless recoveries we also find evidence that links dynamic structural change to the jobless recovery phenomenon more specifically states experiencing a long run downward trend in the share of routine employment are more likely to experience a jobless recovery our results are consistent with the polarization theory where routine replacing technological advances permanently reduce demand for middle skill labor thus contributing to jobless recoveries jel e32 e24

complementarities and comovements short run interindustry comovement may be due either to common shocks or to complementarities that progagate shocks across sectors this paper assesses the importance of input output linkages aggregate activity spillovers and local activity spillovers to comovement in postwar u s manufacturing i find that input output linkages and local activity spillovers are important to comovement while aggregate activity spillovers are not important i find that complementarities are important to aggregate volatility even after i remove observable aggregate shocks from the data local spillovers are particularly important explaining between 15 and 36 percent of manufacturing employment volatility the importance of local spillovers stems from the fact that industries that cluster together in space also comove through time contrary to the marshallian idea that industries with negatively correlated fluctuations should cluster together in order to stabilize local demand

which comes first jobs or people an analysis of the recent stylized facts abstract in contrast to previous studies that only examined employment growth and migration to determine whether people or jobs move first this paper uses an integrative labor market framework the integrative approach leads to additional labor market variables being examined such as wages labor productivity unemployment and labor force participation

the population problem theory and evidence this study is concerned with the relationships among population growth poverty and environmental degradation with particular focus on the situation in developing countries the author rejects the concept of a general theory of fertility behavior in favor of an interpretation of these relationships which might be applicable to certain situations in the poorest parts of the indian subcontinent and sub saharan africa such situations include unacceptable risks of maternal death for poor illiterate women and a condemnation to extreme poverty in conditions of the deterioration of local resources and of the environment the author concludes that population growth rates are too high in certain specific areas and that an appropriate policy reaction to such conditions would be to try to change the options that men and women face so that their reasoned choice would be to lower their fertility

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

pay equality and industrial politics personnel managers often argue that equitable pay treatment manifested as wage compression is useful because it reduces disharmony among workers but it is far from obvious that a compressed salary structure is morale improving since better workers may feel disenchanted by this scheme however when workers rewards are based on relative comparisons salary compression reduces uncooperative behavior that is detrimental to the firm relative comparisons imply that some reference group must be selected the major result is that within the relevant groups some wage compression is efficient

the quantitative effects of tax foresight not all states are equal abstract this paper explores the effect of federal tax news on state economic activity we estimate a factor augmented vector autoregression favar model which allows us to consider the possibility that unobserved factors such as credit and fiscal conditions might be relevant for modeling the dynamic response of aggregate and state level economic activity we identify tax foresight as a shock to the implicit tax rate measured by the yield spread between the one year tax exempt municipal bond and the one year taxable treasury bond our results suggest that an increase in the implicit tax rate raises national output over much of the anticipation period in addition anticipated tax increases give rise to expansions in state personal income and employment we find that the variation in the responsiveness of economic activity across states is mostly explained by differences in industrial composition and income distribution as well as by some demographic characteristics such as median income and education finally using a proxy for exogenous changes in federal tax revenues we investigate the dynamics of state level personal income and employment our results point to considerable heterogeneity in the response across u s states moreover they reveal that the long run multiplier for an anticipated increase in tax revenues is about a tenth of the short run multiplier for an unanticipated increase in taxes

companies learning to innovate in recessions abstract innovating in downturns can affect corporate success by improving a firm s position relative to competitors during the recovery period however increased uncertainty and more binding financial constraints complicate such innovation activity i find that past experience with innovation during recessions improves a firm s ability to invest in r d when a new downturn hits this result holds controlling for traditional drivers of innovation as cumulated innovations and financial constraints as well as mitigating endogeneity and selection concerns moreover i find that past experience with innovation during recessions is beneficial to patent outcomes after a new recession overall the paper provides novel evidence on how business cycles shape innovative capabilities

the dynamics of organizational status this paper examines the growth and decline of organizational status it is argued that an organization s status is determined by two factors past performance outcomes and the status of the organization s affiliates the better the past performance outcomes and the higher the status of the affiliates the greater the organization s growth in status this basic proposition is tested in an examination of status changes among investment banks in the non investment grade market between 1981 and 1987 implications and extensions are discussed in the conclusion copyright 1996 by oxford university press

a model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics abstract this paper develops a model of carbon pricing by considering two fundamental drivers of european union allowances economic activity and energy prices on the one hand economic activity is proxied by aggregated industrial production in the eu 27 as it provides the best performance in a preliminary forecasting exercise vs other indicators on the other hand brent natural gas and coal prices are selected as being the main carbon price drivers as highlighted by previous literature the interactions between the macroeconomic and energy spheres are captured in a markov switching var model with two states that is able to reproduce the boom bust business cycle hamilton 1989 first industrial production is found to impact positively negatively the carbon market during periods of economic expansion recession thereby confirming the existence of a link between the macroeconomy and the price of carbon second the brent price is confirmed to be the leader in price formation among energy markets bachmeier and griffin 2006 as it impacts other variables through the structure of the markov switching model taken together these results uncover new interactions between the recently created eu emissions market and the pre existing macroeconomic energy environment

asymmetric shocks among u s states abstract the paper applies a factor model to the study of risk sharing among u s states the factor model makes it possible to disentangle movements in output and consumption due to national regional or state specific business cycles from those due to measurement error the results of the paper suggest that some findings of the previous literature which indicate a substantial amount of inter state risk sharing may be due to the presence of measurement error in output when measurement error is properly taken into account the evidence points towards a lack of inter state smoothing

redlining in boston do mortgage lenders discriminate against neighborhoods historically lenders have been accused of redlining minority neighborhoods as well as refusing to lend to minority applicants considerable bank regulation is designed to prevent both actions however the strong correlation between race and neighborhood makes it difficult to distinguish the impact of geographic discrimination from the effects of racial discrimination previous studies have failed to untangle these two influences in part because of severe omitted variable bias the data set in this paper allows the distinct effects of race and geography to be identified and it shows that the evidence for redlining is weak

the equilibrium distribution of income and the market for status this paper explores the implications for risk taking behavior and the equilibrium distribution of income of assuming that the desire for status positions is a powerful motive and that it raises the marginal utility of consumption in contrast to previous analyses we consider the case in which status positions are sold in a hedonic market we show that such a complete hedonic market in status positions can be perfectly replicated by a simpler arrangement with a status good and a social norm that assigns higher status to those that consume more of this good the main result is that for a wide range of initial conditions the equilibrium distribution over income status and consumption is the same that this allocation requires inequality of income and consumption and that this allocation coincides with the optimum of a utilitarian planner

an inquiry into the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations abstract this paper attempts to decompose the sources of fluctuations in quarterly employment by industry and region into 1 an aggregate national shock 2 region specific shocks 3 industry specific shocks and 4 idiosyncratic factors the empirical analysis is motivated by a dynamic theory of the business cycle the empirical methodology is the engle watson dynamic mimic model implemented via the em algorithm the work is motivated as an attempt to compare empirically aggregate single factor theories of the cycle with real business cycle theories emphasizing industrial or regional shocks

business cycles under monetary union a comparison of the eu and us reserve districts in the usa and the 15 countries that make up the eu the comparison is suggestive of what might be expected to emerge in the way of business cycle synchronization from a monetary union between the member states of the eu now simply non decimal denominations of the euro and the national central banks of the 11 are branches of the european system of central banks many prominent observers doubted that europe would ever reach this stage and many continue to believe that monetary union between such a large and dispar ate group of countries is fundamentally unsound a key element in the argu ments of many critics of emu is the degree of business cycle asynchronicity between the member states of the eu this paper contributes to the ongoing debate by documenting key differences and similarities between business cycles in the eu and business cycles in the 12 federal reserve districts in the united states the practice of looking to the us experience for insights into the problems and functioning of a monetary union has a long precedent in the literature on fixed exchange rates in general and in the literature on emu in particular for example in making an argument for fixed exchange rates rolnick and weber 1994 note that the usa can be viewed as having a system of fixed exchange rates between currencies issued by the 12 regional federal reserve banks they argue that the notes issued by the 12 banks are not strictly ident ical and that the difference between the notes creates the possibility that the united states could have a system of floating exchange rates among the 12 federal reserve districts 1 rolnick and weber go on to examine the features of the relationship among the 12 regional federal reserve banks that make a system of fixed exchange rates between them feasible in the process drawing lessons for how a monetary union among the countries of the eu might work the analysis in this paper complements earlier analyses in a number of ways the resurgence of interest in business cycle research over the past 20

organizing contests for status the matthew effect vs the mark effect what is the best way to design tournaments for status in which individuals labor primarily for the esteem of their peers what process in other words should organizers of status based contests impose upon those who covet peer recognition we propose a formal model of status based competition that contrasts two competing alternatives the first following merton is the matthew effect according to which a tournament s architect directs slack resources to elite actors and thus widens the distribution of rewards by favoring cumulative advantage the second is the mark effect under which a tournament s designer instead pushes slack resources to marginal actors and thus tightens the distribution of rewards our results suggest that although the mark effect is better for the social welfare of most tournaments the matthew effect is preferable in two distinct contexts in small tournaments where variation in underlying ability translates into acute advantages for the most capable contestants and in large tournaments whose contestants face constant rather than rising marginal costs a condition we relate to contestants perception of their work as intrinsically valuable our contributions are twofold we find counter to the thrust of merton s work that cumulative advantage is not invariably optimal for the functioning of status contests and we identify circumstances in which the production of superstars is likely to make contests for status better off in aggregate implications for future research on status and management are discussed this paper was accepted by olav sorenson organizations and social networks

business cycle phases in u s states the u s aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases we apply a regime switching model to state level coincident indices to characterize state business cycles in this way we find that states differ a great deal in the levels of growth that they experience in the two phases recession growth rates are related to industry mix whereas expansion growth rates are related to education and age composition further states differ significantly in the timing of switches between regimes indicating large differences in the extent to which state business cycle phases are in concord with those of the aggregate economy

metro business cycles abstract we construct monthly economic activity indices for the 50 largest u s metropolitan statistical areas msas beginning in 1990 each index is derived from a dynamic factor model based on twelve underlying variables capturing various aspects of metro area economic activity to accommodate mixed frequency data and differences in data publication lags we estimate the dynamic factor model using a maximum likelihood approach that allows for arbitrary patterns of missing data our indices highlight important similarities and differences in business cycles across msas while a number of msas experience sizable recessions during the national recessions of the early 1990s and early 2000s other msas escape recessions altogether during one or both of these periods nearly all msas suffer relatively deep recessions near the recent great recession but we still find significant differences in the depth of recent metro recessions we relate the severity of metro recessions to a variety of msa characteristics and find that msas with less educated populations and less elastic housing supplies experience significantly more severe recessions after controlling for national economic activity we also find significant evidence of dynamic spillover effects in economic activity across msas

the economic performance of cities a markov switching approach abstract this paper examines the determinants of employment growth in metro areas to obtain growth rates we use a markov switching model that separates a city s growth path into two distinct phases high and low each with its own growth rate the simple average growth rate over some period is therefore the weighted average of the high phase and low phase growth rates with the weight being the frequency of the two phases we estimate the effects of a variety of factors separately for the high phase and low phase growth rates growth in the high phase is related to both human capital and industry mix while growth in the low phase is related to industry mix only specifically the relative importance of manufacturing overall our results strongly reject the notion that city level characteristics influence employment growth equally across the phases of the business cycle

inter regional spillovers of policy shocks in china groenewold n chen a and lee g inter regional spillovers of policy shocks in china regional studies inter regional output spillovers from policy shocks are analysed in a three region vector autoregressive var based model of china using investment as the policy variable the contemporaneous effect of policy is greater in the coastal region than in the other two regions and the effect in the central region is larger than in the western region suggesting that at least part of the expenditure boosts in the poorer inland regions find their way to the coastal provinces these results are confirmed when the effects of the policy shocks are simulated over time and are found to be generally robust to alternative model specifications groenewold n chen a et lee g les retombees regionales des chocs politiques en chine regional studies a partir d un modele de la chine a trois regions du type var on analyse les retombees interregionales de production qui resultent des chocs politiques employant l inve

countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions we consider the effect of some policies intended to shorten recessions and accelerate recoveries our innovation is to analyze the duration of the recoveries of various u s states which gives us a cross section of both state and national level policies because we study multiple recessions for the same state and multiple states for the same recession we can control for differences in the economic conditions preceding recessions and the causes of the recessions when evaluating various policies we find that expansionary monetary policy at the national level helps to stimulate the exit of individual states from recession we find that exogenous measures of decreases in taxes or targeted increases in federal spending reduce recovery times for state recessions we also find ambient economic conditions can extend expected recovery times other states in the same region suffering from recession around the same time the length of the preceding recession and increases in oil prices

regional effects of federal tax shocks this article studies the effects of federal tax changes on u s state level income utilizing an exogenous tax shock series recently proposed in the literature we find considerable variation in how federal tax changes affect regional income estimated state income multipliers range between 0 2 in utah and 3 7 in hawaii analyzing the determinants of differences in regional tax multipliers suggests that size and composition of the state tax base help explain the observed heterogeneity in the transmission of federal tax policy

estimating the u s output gap with state level data this paper develops a method to estimate the u s output gap by exploiting the cross sectional variation of state level output and unemployment rate data the model assumes that there are common output and unemployment rate trend and cycle components and that each state s output and unemployment rate are subject to idiosyncratic trend and cycle perturbations i estimate the model with bayesian methods using quarterly data from 2005 q1 to 2018 q2 for the 50 states and the district of columbia results show that the u s output gap reached about negative 4 6 around the years of the great recession and was about 0 9 in 2018 q2

understanding gross worker flows across u s states abstract the main cross sectional and time series properties of state level gross and net worker flows wages and rents are characterized using micro data from the u s census a dynamic general equilibrium model of worker migration is introduced to explain the stylized facts in the model a location may experience simultaneous inflows and outflows of workers recent migrants choose to migrate more often than incumbent workers thus locations that attract high numbers of migrants also tend to experience high outflow rates this pattern is a robust feature of the data and cannot be explained by models of net flows only

how strong is co movement in employment over the business cycle evidence from state sector data abstract this study measures the extent of co movement in employment across states and sectors at business cycle frequencies the strength of co movement is quantified using the cohesion measure developed by croux forni and reichlin rev econ statist 83 2001 232 the data indicate that cohesion is generally positive for the state sector pairs although the distributions mass around relatively low values the results suggest that cohesion has risen over time and that cohesion increases with spatial aggregation evidence reveals that the measured degree of co movement is sensitive to the chosen periodicity of the data and that there is much greater cohesion across states for a given sector than across different sectors within a state an investigation into the sources of cross state variation in cohesion reveals that important determinants include the share of state employment in manufacturing the different effects of monetary policy actions on each state s employment and the degree of sectoral diversity within a state

wage contracts when output grows stochastically the roles of mobility costs and capital market imperfections the paper considers an industry in which individual output follows a stochastic growth process with a cumulative effect it analyzes the roles of labor mobility and capital market conditions in the determination of wage contracts positive costs of mobility are shown to be necessary for the provision of wage and employment insurance when workers have no access to the capital market when insurance is provided wages grow less than average productivity if the capital market is perfect wage insurance will be provided even in the absence of costs of mobility in this case wages grow faster than average productivity

sectoral shocks and metropolitan employment growth abstract in this paper we study the sources of industry employment growth in each of five metropolitan statistical areas msas the objective is to understand the relative importance of aggregate disturbances versus local sectoral shocks in generating observed employment fluctuations at the msa level the empirical evidence presented in this paper derives from structural vector autoregressions svars estimated for each of the five msas estimations use monthly employment data covering nine one digit industrial categories for the period 1951 1 1999 8 as well as two variables that capture the influences of aggregate i e national shocks on msas we find that within msa industry shocks explain considerably more of the forecast error variance in industry employment growth than do aggregate shocks sectoral shocks account for between 87 and 94 of the 36 month ahead forecast error variance among individual local sectors shocks to msa specific government manufacturing and service sector employment growth are the predominate sources of variability

regional income fluctuations common trends and common cycles this paper investigates trend and cycle dynamics in per capita income for the major u s regions during the 1956 1995 period cointegration and serial correlation common features information are used in jointly decomposing the series into trend and cycle components we find considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles controlling for differences in volatility we find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response for all regions but the far west possible sources underlying differences in regional cycles are explored such as the share of a region s income accounted for by manufacturing defense spending as a proportion of a region s income oil price shocks and the stance of monetary policy somewhat surprisingly we find that the share of manufacturing in a region seems to account for little of the variation in regional cycles relative to national cycles but manufacturing share differentially affects trend growth for four of the seven regions studied

a new look at variation in employment growth in canada the role of industry provincial national and external factors we examine fluctuations in employment growth using canadian data from 1976 to 2010 we consider a wide range of models and examine the sensitivity of our findings to modelling assumptions the results from our most preferred model which we selected using the bayesian information criteria indicate that most of the variance in employment growth that is not due to the idiosyncratic error comes from domestic sources with most of this coming from industry and provincial factors overall we find that external and national factors play a much smaller role in employment fluctuations than in earlier research we provide some possible explanations for these differences and discuss the implications of our findings for public policy and theory

on the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price setting summary we use novel disaggregate sectoral regional euro area data to investigate the sources of price changes introducing a new method to extract factors from overlapping data blocks that allows for estimation of aggregate sectoral country specific and regional components of price changes our sectoral component explains much less variation in disaggregate inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility and more persistence than previous findings for the us indicate country and region specific factors play an important role emphasizing heterogeneity of inflation dynamics along both sectoral and geographical dimensions our results are incompatible with basic sticky information or calvo type price setting models but require multi sector multi country models copyright 2015 john wiley sons ltd

networks as the pipes and prisms of the market1 this article draws an analytical distinction between two types of market uncertainty egocentric which refers to a focal actor s uncertainty regarding the best way to convert a set of inputs to an output desired by a potential exchange partner and altercentric which denotes the uncertainty confronted by a focal actor s exchange partners regarding the quality of the output that the focal actor brings to the market given this distinction the article considers how the value of structural holes and market status vary with these two types of uncertainty the article proposes that the value of structural holes increases with egocentric uncertainty but not with altercentric uncertainty in contrast the value of status increases with altercentric uncertainty but declines with egocentric uncertainty thus actors with networks rich in structural holes should sort into markets or market segments that are high in egocentric uncertainty high status actors should sort into markets that are low in egocentric

a multi level panel star model for us manufacturing sectors we introduce a multi level smooth transition model for a panel of time series which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables the model is positioned in between a fully pooled model which imposes such common features and a fully heterogeneous model which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity we introduce a second stage model linking the parameters that determine the timing of the switches between business cycle regimes to observable explanatory variables thereby allowing for lead lag relationships across panel members we discuss representation estimation by concentrated simulated maximum likelihood and inference we illustrate our model using quarterly industrial production in 19 us manufacturing sectors and document that there are subtle differences across sectors in leads and lags for switches between business cycle recessions and expansions copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

is housing the business cycle evidence from us cities abstract in a recent paper leamer 2007 identified housing as an important precursor of the national business cycle previous work on the other hand has shown that regional cycles may not be synchronous with the aggregate cycle in this paper we analyze the relationship between housing and the business cycle at the msa level for a set of 51 us cities we find that declines in house prices are often not followed by declines in that city s employment while the growth rates in housing variables appeared to slow ahead of city level peaks we find no consistent statistical relationship suggesting a city s permits or prices influences its business cycle in fact we find that national permits are a better leading indicator for a city s employment than a city s own permits this suggest the possibility that housing is merely a proxy for other consumption or wealth indicators