economies of scale in multi product firms an empirical analysis this paper presents new evidence on scale economies in multiproduct firms previous studies are limited in view of r ecent advances in the theory of the multiproduct firm the water util ity is chosen here as a multiproduct firm providing multiple services to various classes of customers with spatial variation a translog m ultiproduct cost function is estimated based on duality between tran sformation and cost functions the paper analyzes overall as well as product specific scale economies it also discusses ray average cos t curves and derives the m locus which provides useful information on scope economies and the cost minimizing number of firms copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

the effects of ownership and benchmark competition an empirical analysis of u s water systems abstract should governments or private firms own water systems can yardstick or benchmark competition effectively discipline utilities little empirical research sheds light on these issues we use a panel dataset that includes every community water system in the united states from 1997 to 2003 to test the effects of ownership and benchmark competition on regulatory compliance we find that ownership does not generally affect compliance with the safe drinking water act sdwa greater benchmark competition however is associated with fewer sdwa violations the results suggest that ownership per se may not matter much but that competition even in its weaker form of benchmarking by consumers or regulators can improve performance

does private management of water supply services really increase prices an empirical analysis in spain this paper attempts to explain differences in the average price of domestic water supply services in spain paying special attention to the effects of privatisation of the service on price levels the empirical analysis is based on the application of a treatment effects model on a sample of 53 major urban municipalities this model accounts for the fact that municipalities do not randomly distribute themselves between a group using strictly public ownership and management and a group where all or part of the service has been delegated to a private firm it is found that once this endogeneity is taken into account there seems to be a positive and significant effect of privatisation on water price levels

water and energy price impacts on residential water demand in copenhagen while water price effects on residential water demand have been studied for several decades the impact of energy prices does not seem to have received much attention in this paper a residential water demand function derived from a model of household production of final consumption goods taking water energy and an aggregate of other goods as inputs is estimated on pooled time series data we find negative energy cross price elasticities around 0 2 and water price elasticities in the order of 0 1 or smaller

multiproduct short run hospital cost functions empirical evidence and policy implications from cross section data economists and policymakers have been interested in hospital costs and the structure of hospital technologies for several decades now early interest was focused on the possibility of scale economies which implied increased efficiency for larger hospitals 6 8 12 13 18 20 while more recent interest has been stimulated by the inflationary spiral of hospital costs 1 15 17 22 as hospital costs have risen important policy questions concerning the impact on costs of the hospitals diagnostic case mix the hospitals admitting physicians the hospitals size and the hospitals efficiency have emerged and researchers have attempted to deal with these issues within the context of increasingly complex econometric models 1 2 5 24 27 however in attempting to analyze these important policy issues researchers have been forced to make two major types of compromises on the one hand appropriate data are often not available for estimating a well specified cost function e g information on admitting physicians and diagnostic case mix are often missing so that problems of specification error often plague the econometric results conversely in using imaginative ways to deal with data problems e g weighting in patient and out patient care to form a single index of hospital services 1 27 or estimating separate cost functions for each department in the hospital 2 researchers sometimes place unrealistic and unnecessary constraints on their econometric models the purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of several of the primary hospital characteristics mentioned above on the short run costs of hospitals within a theoretically consistent framework in the following discussion we also develop the theoretical

how different is the efficiency of public and private water companies in asia several studies have compared the efficiency of publicly and privately owned water utilities and reached conflicting conclusions on the impact of ownership on efficiency this article provides further evidence by estimating a stochastic cost frontier for a sample of asian and pacific regional water companies the results show that efficiency is not significantly different in private companies than in public ones

anomalies risk aversion economists ubiquitously employ a simple and elegant explanation for risk aversion it derives from the concavity of the utility of wealth function within the expected utility framework we show that this explanation is not plausible in most applications since anything more than economically negligible risk aversion over moderate stakes requires a utility of wealth function that is so concave that it predicts absurdly severe risk aversion over very large stakes we present examples of how the expected utility framework has misled economists and why we believe a better explanation for risk aversion must incorporate loss aversion and mental accounting

why has u s inflation become harder to forecast we examine whether the u s rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and to the extent that it has what changes in the inflation process have made it so the main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend cycle model with stochastic volatility or equivalently an integrated moving average process with time varying parameters this model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles and begins to explain some multivariate inflation forecasting puzzles as well

estimation of substitution possibilities between water and other production inputs the traditional approach to measuring the demand for water by industries relies upon fixed water use coefficients water supply planners base decisions about system expansion partly upon fixed coefficients applied to projected levels of industrial growth among the restrictive assumptions implied by this approach is that producers are generally unresponsive to the relative price of water compared with other factors earlier studies focused on industry by industry assessments of present and potential water use technologies and the possibilities for substituting other productive inputs for water most of these studies are economic engineering in form thompson and young and russell are analyses of the steam electric generating industry and the petroleum refining and petrochemical industry respectively because they used linear programming techniques their results must be interpreted cautiously the flexible functional forms which have become

measurement of economic efficiency in pakistani agriculture farm efficiency and the question of how to measure it is an important subject in developing countries agriculture there are three distinct approaches to measurement based on cost profits and production functions farrell developed the concept of technical efficiency based on input and output relationships technical inefficiency arises when actual or observed output from a given input mix is less than the maximum possible allocative inefficiency arises when the input mix is not consistent with cost minimization advances have been made in the frontier cost function literature using flexible functional forms bauer greene 1980 forsund knoxlovell and schmidt and schmidt an approach using systems of equations based on cost profit and distance functions was developed to incorporate all available information on multiproduct farms kumbhakar schmidt fare grosskopf and nelson hayes the present study uses a cost function approach and combines the concepts of technical and allocative efficiency in the cost relationship any errors in the production decision translate into higher costs for the producer at the same time the stochastic nature of production implies that the theoretical cost function is stochastic 2 two distinct approaches are used first we use the stochastic frontier approach in which translog cost function is specified and estimated without using share equations the derived measure of inefficiency is then related to socioeconomic demographic and farm size variables second we use a behavioral approach in which translog cost function again is estimated but this time as a function of the shadow prices of the inputs the cost share equations are estimated jointly with a cost equation incorporating all cross equation restrictions moreover the input use inefficiency is introduced through the parameters and these are related to the structural variables this approach permits us to obtain a farm specific measure of allocative inefficiency

measuring economies of diversification a frontier approach the purpose of this article is to improve the statistical analysis of multiproduct firm behavior specifically we are interested in modeling and estimating multiproduct technology focusing on size and product line variation thus we offer a new empirical technique that can be used to directly analyze issues such as subadditivity expansion path subadditivity economies of scope and economies of diversification although applied papers employ a wide variety of theoretical multiproduct cost concepts previous work uses nonfrontier estimation techniques we show how to introduce frontier approaches to multiproduct cost analysis that can be applied to any of these concepts and improve the statistical analysis specifically we introduce an empirical test using frontier techniques that allows for direct measures of economies of diversification at the firm specific level

hedonic cost models and the pricing of milk components to assess likely producer response to milk price reform we examine the technology of protein butterfat and fluid carrier production on 1 924 u s dairy farms a variant of a hedonic cost model is proposed in which the output aggregator is expressed as a function of total output and of the percentage concentrations of its components dairy farmers have responded rationally to artificially low protein prices due to the cow s appetite limit farmers operate in stage i of feed to milk production functions yet protein s marginal cost rises sharply with protein output only modest substitutability is evident among feed inputs or milk component outputs

multiproduct monopoly regulation and firm costs regulation of public utiilties has traditionally been justified on the grounds that firm long run average costs fall with increased output in these industries for this reason it has been argued that cost efficiency dictates that a single firm supply the product ideally regulation of public utilities prevents monopolistic pricing while still permitting the most cost efficient industrial structure a large amount of theoretical and applied research has shown however that regulation in these industries generally does not guarantee that regulated firm costs are held at the lowest possible level for a given amount of output it seems then that regulation results in a tradeoff between cost savings from efficient industrial organization and cost inefficiencies generically known as x inefficiencies in this paper a new dimension of this tradeoff is examined specifically the paper explores whether cost efficiencies that are thought to characterize multiproduct public utilities are offset by increased costs permitted by a lack of inter energy competition in the next section a framework is constructed that is capable of identifying the cost structure for multiproduct firms and its relationship to efficient industrial structure section iii examines the sources of multiproduct economies and diseconomies for regulated multiproduct public utilities the cost structure is then estimated in section iv for single and multiproduct electricity and natural gas utilities section v considers the implications of the empirical analysis

computing economies of vertical integration economies of scope and economies of scale using partial frontier nonparametric methods abstract so far in the nonparametric literature only full frontier nonparametric methods have been applied to search for economies of scope and scale particularly the data envelopment analysis method dea however these methods present some drawbacks that might lead to biased results this paper proposes a methodology based on more robust partial frontier nonparametric methods to look for scope and scale economies through this methodology it is possible to assess the robustness of these economies and in particular to assess the influence that extreme data or outliers might have on them the influence of the imposition of convexity on the production set of firms was also investigated this methodology was applied to the water utilities that operated in portugal between 2002 and 2008 there is evidence of economies of vertical integration and economies of scale in drinking water supply utilities and in water and wastewater utilities operating mainly in the retail segment economies of scale were found in water and wastewater utilities operating exclusively in the wholesale and in some of these utilities diseconomies of scope were also found the proposed methodology also allowed us to conclude that the existence of some smaller utilities makes the minimum optimal scales go down

economies of scale in the korean district heating system a variable cost function approach this paper aims to investigate the cost efficiency of south korea s district heating dh system by using a variable cost function and cost share equation we employ a seemingly unrelated regression model with quarterly time series data from the korea district heating corporation kdhc a public utility that covers about 59 of the dh system market in south korea over the 1987 2011 period the explanatory variables are price of labor price of material capital cost and production level the results indicate that economies of scale are present and statistically significant thus expansion of its dh business would allow kdhc to obtain substantial economies of scale according to our forecasts vis a vis scale economies the kdhc will enjoy cost efficiency for some time yet to ensure a socially efficient supply of dh it is recommended that the kdhc expand its business proactively with regard to informing policy or regulations our empirical results could play a significant role in decision making processes

anomalies in intertemporal choice evidence and an interpretation research on decision making under uncertainly has been strongly influenced by the documentation of numerous expected utility eu anomalies behaviors that violate the expected utility axioms the relative lack of progress on the closely related topic of intertemporal choice is partly due to the absence of an analogous set of discounted utility du anomalies we enumerate a set of du anomalies analogous to the eu anomalies and propose a model that accounts for the anomalies as well as other intertemporal choice phenomena incompatible with du we discuss implications for savings behavior estimation of discount rates and choice framing effects

the economic environment and public enterprise behaviour belgian railroads 1950 86 the purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of variations in the economic environment on allocatively inefficient behaviour by public enterprises and to measure the implications of both allocative and technical inefficiency for the firm s costs and factor use empirical results for the belgian railroad company suggest the importance of unemployment and the pressure experienced by managers to reduce the deficit as explanatory variables of allocative inefficiency the implications of inefficiencies for factor use are found to be substantial although the associated costs are quite small

introducing the bank of canada staff economic projections database we present a new publicly available database of real time data and forecasts from the bank of canada s staff economic projections which will be updated on an annual basis we describe the data construct its variables coverage and frequency we then provide a forecast evaluation for gross domestic product gdp growth consumer price index cpi inflation and the policy rate since 1982 we compare the staff s forecasts with those from commonly used time series models estimated with the real time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests finally we study changes in predictability of the canadian economy following the announcement of the inflation targeting regime in 1991 our data set is unprecedented outside the usa and our evidence is particularly interesting as it covers over 30 years of staff forecasts two severe recessions and different monetary policy regimes

regulation of public utilities under asymmetric information we consider the relationship between a localcommunity and a private operator in charge ofthe water utility an important feature of themodel is the possibility of water networklosses that are costly to the operator wecompute the first best and asymmetricinformation solutions to the optimal contract with private information on the operator stechnology based on an econometric estimationof production cost and water demand for a panelof french local communities we simulate theoptimal contract solutions and show thatasymmetric information has importantconsequences for the regulation of water publicutilities

production costs inefficiency and source water quality a stochastic cost frontier analysis of canadian water utilities this analysis employs a stochastic cost frontier to estimate relationships between source water quality production costs and cost efficiency in canadian municipal water treatment facilities data for the analysis are obtained primarily from a census of water providers that contains detailed information on operational costs source water quality and treatment technologies results show water quality as measured by turbidity is a significant determinant of production costs the estimated elasticity for turbidity is 0 1 with a 95 confidence interval of 0 06 to 0 14 we find no significant differences in cost efficiency across regions treatment technologies output or turbidity levels

bias in federal reserve inflation forecasts is the federal reserve irrational or just cautious abstract inflation forecasts of the federal reserve seem to have systematically under predicted inflation from the fourth quarter of 1968 until volcker s appointment as chairman and to systematically over predict it afterwards until the second quarter of 1998 furthermore under quadratic loss commercial forecasts seem to have information not contained in those forecasts to investigate the cause of this apparent irrationality this paper recovers the loss function implied by federal reserve s inflation forecasts the results suggest that the cost of having inflation above an implicit time varying target was larger than the cost of having inflation below it for the period since volcker and that the opposite was true for the pre volcker era once these asymmetries are taken into account the federal reserve s inflation forecasts are found to be rational

changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks narrative evidence from canada abstract using narrative evidence with a novel database of real time data and forecasts from the bank of canada s staff projections 1974 2015 we construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in canada we show it is crucial to account for the break in the conduct of monetary policy caused by the announcement of inflation targeting in 1991 a 100 basis point increase in our new shock series leads to a 1 0 percent peak decrease in real gdp and a 0 5 percent fall in the price level while not accounting for the break leads to a persistent decrease in gdp and a price puzzle albeit the change in monetary regime the effects of monetary policy have not changed much before and after it

signaling and the design of delegated management contracts for public utilities this article analyzes the shape of contracts between local governments and the contractors they hire to run public facilities on their behalf governments are privately informed about the quality of the facility while risk neutral contractors undertake a non verifiable operating eort the design of the contract signals the quality of the facility in such a way that the better this quality the greater the share of operating risk kept by the government this feature reduces the agent s marginal incentives creating a trade o between signaling and moral hazard we provide extensions of our framework in several directions allowing for risk aversion on the agent s side double moral hazard and political delegation the model is supported by some stylized facts from the water industry

economies of scale and economies of scope in multiproduct financial institutions a study of british columbia credit unions this paper investigates the production technology facing computerized credit unions in canada a full system of translog cost equations is estimated in order to test for economies of scale economies of scope and other production characteristics in a multiproduct context the regression results indicate that most of the credit unions in our sample experience significant increasing returns to scale as they expand their level of output there is also evidence of cost complementarity or economies of scope in their mortgage and other lending activities as a result legislation which limits the ability of credit unions to grow and diversify will likely raise the operating costs of this important group of financial institutions additional structural tests of the most general translog specification suggest that none of the restrictive production conditions commonly imposed by other researchers using cobb douglas and ces specifications provide a valid representation of credit union technology the results of many earlier studies are therefore open to question this paper presents a number of structural tests of the production technology facing large computerized credit unions in canada a full system of translog cost equations is estimated using detailed cross sectional data on british columbia credit unions the parameter estimates obtained from our multiproduct specification allow us to test for economies of scale economies of scope and factor substitution unlike many earlier studies the present paper introduces the various outputs as separate variables instead of crudely proxying them with a single output measure such as total assets the total number of loans or the number of depositors by explicitly recognizing the multiproduct nature of the intermediation process we are able to address more interesting production questions and remove some of the bias caused by misspecification and measurement error in simpler approaches the flexible translog specification allows us to estimate the sensitivity of costs to proportionate increases in all outputs economies of scale as well as the cost savings firms realize by producing several outputs jointly rather than specializing in the production of one economies of scope the test results reported in the latter part of the paper suggest that increasing returns to scale exist in almost all of the credit unions in our sample though

forecast rationality tests in the presence of instabilities with applications to federal reserve and survey forecasts summary this paper proposes a framework to implement regression based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments including in particular forecast unbiasedness and efficiency tests commonly referred to as tests of forecast rationality our framework is general it can be applied to model based forecasts obtained either with recursive or rolling window estimation schemes as well as to forecasts that are model free the proposed tests provide more evidence against forecast rationality than previously found in the federal reserve s greenbook forecasts as well as survey based private forecasts it confirms however that the federal reserve has additional information about current and future states of the economy relative to market participants copyright 2015 john wiley sons ltd

has the economy become more predictable changes in greenbook forecast accuracy several researchers have recently documented large reductions in economic volatility but a more important question may be whether the economy has become more predictable using forecasts from the federal reserve greenbooks i find that inflation and output have become more predictable though the results for output are somewhat mixed the reductions in unpredictability if any are significantly smaller than reductions in volatility associated with this the predictable component of fluctuations in output and inflation has virtually disappeared

environmental and resource economics a canadian retrospective the paper reviews research contributions to environmental and resource economics by scholars in canada we focus mainly on work from the past 25 years but also highlight earlier pathbreaking work we begin by looking at broad trends in research both internationally and within canada we then review canadian contributions to various topics in the field canadians have played a leading role in the development of the field especially in resource economics international environmental economics and the valuation of environmental amenities

average cost efficiency and optimal scale sizes in non parametric analysis under fairly general assumptions requiring neither a differentiable frontier nor a constant returns to scale technology this paper introduces a new definition of an optimal scale size based on the minimization of unit costs the corresponding measure average cost efficiency combines scale and allocative efficiency and generalizes the measurement of scale economies in efficiency analysis while providing a performance criterion which is stricter than both cost efficiency and scale efficiency measurement the average cost efficiency is not reliant upon the uniformity of the firms input price vector and we supply procedures to compute it in both convex and non convex production technologies empirical illustration of the theoretical results is given with reference to large sets of production units

loss aversion in a consumption savings model abstract we propose a model of consumption and saving based on kahneman and tversky s prospect theory that implies a fundamental asymmetry in consumption behavior inconsistent with other models of consumption when there is sufficient income uncertainty a person resists lowering consumption in response to bad news about future income this resistance is greater than the resistance to increasing consumption in response to good news we present empirical evidence from five countries that confirms this behavior

non joint technologies the hypothesis of non jointness in input quantities separate production functions is well known and it plays an important role in many areas of economics in this paper we define three additional forms of non jointness which have received little or no attention in the literature and which might be relevant for the firm as well as for the representation of the aggregate technology we characterize all forms of non jointness in terms of variable profit and joint cost functions this yields a number of restrictions which are all testable empirically the assumption that production is non joint in input quantities separate production functions inputs allocated between the different production processes plays a crucial role in many areas of economic theory we need only think of international trade theory public finance macroeconomics growth theory or traded non traded good models of international finance in fact it is safe to say that more often than not production is assumed non joint in input quantities in multiple output models little work has been done to test the empirical validity of the assumption of non jointness in input quantities samuelson 1966 studies the characterization of non joint technologies in terms of the transformation function as pointed out by hall 1973 however samuelson s results do not seem very useful for econometric work hall studies the characterization of non jointness in input quantities in terms of the joint cost function this leads to a number of restrictions which can easily be imposed or tested for and which were used in empirical work by burgess 1976 and by kohli 1981 lau 1972 1978 finally characterizes non jointness in input quantities in terms of the profit function besides non jointness in input quantities lau also examines the case of non jointness in output quantities when an input can be cracked into several outputs in this paper we define two additional cases of non jointness and we characterize them in terms of the joint cost function and the variable or normalized restricted profit function the new forms of non jointness that we define may be useful to describe technologies at the level of the firm and may be even more so at the aggregate level some may be useful concepts in other areas of economics as well such as consumer theory by distinguishing between the various forms of non jointness one obtains a number of testable restrictions on the corresponding joint cost or variable profit functions

the quest for prosperity without inflation abstract in recent years activist monetary policy rules responding to inflation and the level of economic activity have been advanced as a means of achieving effective output stabilization without inflation advocates of such policies suggest that their flexibility may yield substantial stabilization benefits while avoiding the excesses of overzealous discretionary fine tuning such as is thought to characterize the experience of the 1960s and 1970s in this study i present evidence suggesting that these conclusions are misguided using an estimated model i show that when informational limitations are properly accounted for activist policies would not have averted the great inflation but instead would have resulted in worse macroeconomic performance than the actual historical experience the problem can be attributed in large part to the counterproductive reliance of these policies on the output gap the analysis suggests that the dismal economic outcomes of the great inflation may have resulted from an unfortunate pursuit of activist policies in the face of bad measurement specifically overoptimistic assessments of the output gap associated with the productivity slowdown of the late 1960s and early 1970s

risk aversion and expected utility theory a calibration theorem within the expected utility framework the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave a person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor this paper provides a theorem showing that expected utility theory is an utterly implausible explanation for appreciable risk aversion over modest stakes within expected utility theory for any concave utility function even very little risk aversion over modest stakes implies an absurd degree of risk aversion over large stakes illustrative calibrations are provided

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

costs of nitrogen runoff for rural water utilities a shadow cost approach this paper explores the interactions among scale and density economies productive efficiency water quality and customer characteristics and their impact on the costs of delivering treated drinking water implicit benefits of nitrogen abatement are also derived and hypothesis tests concerning their hypothesized drivers are conducted key findings are that nitrogen removal costs increase with rising raw water nitrogen concentration coming from agricultural activities and that network density and system size matter in determining average total costs of community water systems merging water systems to take advantage of scale economies may be difficult due to the heterogeneity of the sector however

the elasticity of scale and the shape of average costs different concepts of returns to scale the first which is most widely used for defining returns to scale is the relative increase in output as all input quantities are increased proportionally along a ray through the origin the second which is the more relevant concept for micro economic analysis is the increase in output relative to costs for variations along the expansion path where input prices are constant and costs are minimized at every output 2 as it turns out these two concepts yield equal measures for the elasticity of scale3 e at every minimum cost point in the input space however the change in e with output is generally different for the two concepts 4 since expansion paths do not coincide with rays unless the production function is homothetic 5 but it is the change of e along the expansion path and not along the raywhich determines the shape of the average cost curve ac and which is therefore relevant for the analysis of firms and industry behavior under competition 6 these relations are stated and analyzed below it is shown that assumptions made in the literature7 which are related to the behavior of e along rays or to the slope of the technically optimal surface where returns to scale are locally constant are irrelevantbeing neither necessary nor sufficient for implying classical u shaped average cost curves the following definitions and results are used here

the effects of consolidation amongst japanese water utilities a hedonic cost function analysis in many parts of the world water is supplied by very small local undertakings in recent years there has been a move to consolidation of these utilities in a number of countries this paper look

analysis of hospital production an output index approach in this study a new model of hospital costs is developed and estimated utilizing an output index this theoretically appropriate output index is constructed to accurately reflect the differentiated nature of hospital care by employing both patient and diagnosis characteristics in its construction using this output index we estimate a long run translog cost function with a dataset of 321 california hospitals for the year 2003 we find evidence of economies of scope across specialties within primary care and evidence of scope diseconomies within secondary and tertiary care point estimates of scale economies using the output index indicate that minimum efficient scale is reached at a larger level than when using less refined output measurement techniques that have often been used in similar studies our estimates indicate the importance of accounting for specialty specific scope economies when analyzing the production properties of firms producing differentiated products

ownership versus competition efficiency in public enterprise certainly the introduction of product market competition into potentially competitive or at least contestable markets can improve performance to take just one example morrison and whinston 1986 1986 estimate that even in the imperfectly contestable u s airline industry the annual u s welfare gains from deregulation have been around 6 billion

averting risk in the face of large losses bernoulli vs tversky and kahneman abstract prospect theory asserts that people display risk attraction in high probability losses but our subjects tend to avoid fair risks for large 30 to 90 high probability 80 real losses vindicating bernoulli s view that risk aversion is the dominant attitude

the role of environmental factors in water utilities technical efficiency empirical evidence from spanish companies this article computes input specific scores of technical efficiency for a sample of water utilities located in the southern spanish region of andalusia in addition differences in efficiency between different operating environments are investigated concerning the debate about ownership and efficiency we find that privately owned companies outperform public utilities in their management of labour furthermore technical efficiency is found to be greater among firms located in highly populated areas and for utilities providing water services to tourist municipalities finally no empirical evidence supporting the greater technical efficiency of consortia of water utilities a managerial strategy strongly encouraged by regional politicians is found

efficiency and equity in natural resources pricing a proposal for urban water distribution service this paper focuses on the design of optimal prices for urban water distribution service in this context pricing should be aimed at achieving efficiency equity financial aspects and or public acceptability and transparency the proposed tariffs are based on the theoretical frameworks suggested by ramsey 1927 and feldstein 1972 as a prior step estimations of urban water demands and water costs are carried out for the spanish municipality of seville finally an empirical comparison in welfare terms is conducted between the proposed tariffs and those applicable in the year 2000

technical efficiency within the us postal service and the postal reorganization act of 1970 1988 technical efficiency within the us postal service and the postal reorganization act of 1970 applied economics vol 20 no 9 pp 1185 1197

estimating demand under block rates electricity and water many empirical studies of the demand for electricity under declining block tariffs have been conducted but few have produced results consistent with traditional demand theory nordin bell j economics 7 719 21 1976 explains this in part by pointing out that most of those studies failed to take into account the income effects caused by intramarginal price differences the authors show here that nordin s suggestion involves the inappropriate use of ordinal level statistics ols they propose a method by which consistent estimates of the demand parameters can be obtained when a household s rule for selecting a block can be estimated 19 references 1 figure

fiscal forecasts at the fomc evidence from the greenbooks abstract this paper examines fiscal policy forecasts prepared for the federal open market committee and its influence on u s monetary policy the forecasts contain useful information beyond that i

estimating the structure of industrial water demands the case of canadian manufacturing this study considers water use by canadian manufacturing firms the estimation of water demands is based on a detailed cross sectional survey of establishment level observations on water prices quantities and expenditures industrial water use is modeled as having four components intake treatment prior to use recirculation and discharge average values for the estimated own price elasticity for water intake range from 0 1534 to 0 5885 water recirculation is found to be a substitute for both water intake and water discharge this confirms that expanding the use of economic incentives e g effluent fees may be effective in encouraging firms to reduce their water use while increasing in plant recirculation

evaluating the welfare effects of reforming municipal water prices abstract despite the strong criticisms by economists of water utility pricing practices and the presence of well articulated theoretical models of efficient pricing alternatives few empirical studies have documented the magnitude of the efficiency gains from altering water prices the structures of water supply costs and water demands are estimated using data from vancouver canada a simulation program uses these estimated relationships to compute the impact upon a representative water utility s output and deficit and upon aggregate consumer surplus of a move from its current practice to efficient prices simulation results show that a move to seasonally differentiated pricing with an annual charge calculated to recoup the resulting deficit raises aggregate surplus by approximately 4 this result contrasts with recent water pricing studies that found welfare improvements of approximately 1

market and cost structure in the u s beef packing industry a plant level analysis a resurgence of consolidation in the u s meat packing industry in the past few decades has stimulated academic and policy debate issues raised include the role of cost economies in driving these patterns and the effects on the agricultural sector cattle producers from market power here plant level cost and revenue data for u s beef packing plants are used to estimate a cost based model incorporating cattle and output market pricing behavior the robust results indicate little market power exploitation in either the cattle input or beef output markets and that any apparent evidence is counteracted by cost efficiencies such as utilization and scope economies copyright 2001 oxford university press

the welfare impact of self supplied water pricing in canada a computable general equilibrium assessment this paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the welfare cost of changing the method of water allocation in canada towards one that uses prices to ration demand we model the introduction of a price on both water that is abstracted as well as water that is consumed that is abstracted and not returned to the source we estimate that reducing water consumption by 25 would require imposition of a price on water consumption of around 0 21 text m 3 similarly introduction of a water abstraction charge of about 0 013 text m 3 would be sufficient to reduce water abstraction by 25 we find that if revenues from water pricing are returned in lump sum to households the introduction of water pricing would result in a modest welfare loss when revenues from water pricing are used to offset existing taxes we find a gain in welfare corresponding to a strong double dividend

choice and procrastination author s o donoghue ted rabin matthew abstract recent models of procrastination due to self control problems assume that a procrastinator considers just one option and is unaware of her self control problems we develop a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self control problems this menu model replicates earlier results and generates new ones a person might forego completing an attractive option because she plans to complete a more attractive but never to be completed option hence providing a non procrastinator additional options can induce procrastination and a person may procrastinate worse pursuing important goals than unimportant ones

municipal water supply and sewage treatment costs prices and distortions municipal water supply and sewage treatment utilities in ontario canada are studied in order to establish their costs of supply and evaluate their pricing practices prices charged to residential and commercial customers are found to be only one third and one sixth of the estimated marginal cost for water supply and sewage treatment respectively for example the average price to residential customers is 0 32m superscript 3 while the estimated marginal cost is 0 87 m superscript 3 the estimated cost parameters are combined with estimated residential and nonresidential demands functions in order to calculate approximate welfare losses that arise from overconsumption

public versus private water delivery a hedonic cost approach automotive news 1967 almanac detroit slocum publishing co 1967 bucklin louis p competition and evolution in the distributive trades englewood cliffs new jersey prentice hall 1972 federal trade commission annual line of business report 1974 washington ftc 1981a processed annual line of business report 1975 washington ftc 1981b processed guth louis a robert a schwartz and david k whitcomb the use of buyer concentration ratios in tests of oligopoly models this review 58 nov 1976 488 491 jeifreys james b the distribution of consumer goods new york cambridge university press 1950 lilly digest indianapolis ely lilly and co 1976 martin stephen advertising concentration and profitability the simultaneity problem belljournal 10 autumn 1979 639 647 national petroleum news fact book 1976 new york mcgraw hill 1976 ncr expenses in retail business dayton ohio ncr undated but about 1966 and about 1976 strickland allyn d and leonard w weiss advertising concentration and price cost margins journal of political economy 84 oct 1976 1109 1123 u s department of commerce bureau of economic analysis the detailed input output structure of the u s economy 1972 volume 1 the use and make of commodities by industries washington d c government printing office 1979 u s treasury department internal revenue service statistics of income source book 1972 processed ward t s the distribution of consumer goods structure and performance new york cambridge university press 1973 weiss leonard w the geographic size of markets in manufacturing this review 54 aug 1972 245 257 case studies in american industry new york john wiley and sons 1980

the endowment effect and intertemporal choice a laboratory investigation we present a laboratory investigation of intertemporal choice i e elicited discount rates allowing for the influence of the endowment effect consistent with the previous literature we hypothesize that the endowment effect in an intertemporal choice setting results in substantially higher discount rates relative to when individuals treat the resources in question as found money our results support this hypothesis and our experimental design provides a new protocol for conducting choice experiments wherein the endowment effect is an important determinant of behaviour l effet de dotation et le choix inter temporel une analyse en laboratoire on presente une analyse en laboratoire de choix inter temporels i e de taux d escompte permettant a l effet de dotation de jouer selon les conventions dans la litterature specialisee on fait l hypothese que l effet de dotation dans un contexte de choix inter temporel resulte en des taux d escompte substantiellement plus eleves que quand les individus traitent les ressources comme de la monnaie trouvee les resultats supportent l hypothese et le design de l experience fournit un protocole pour mener des experiences de choix ou l effet de dotation est un determinant important du comportement

driving forces for consolidation or fragmentation of the us water utility industry a cost function approach with endogenous output abstract this paper empirically analyzes the structure of the us water industry using a multiproduct flexible cost function model with the amount of water delivered to final consumers recognized as endogenous the cross sectional econometric analysis focuses on measures of cost economies in water production and their variation with network characteristics the estimates reveal considerable scale economies in terms of volume particularly for small utilities that tend to have less output density these economies are however counteracted by simultaneous increases in customers and service area size especially for large utilities overall our results indicate that consolidation of small utilities might generate cost efficiencies depending on the concurrent expansion of the network but consolidation of already large utilities without corresponding increases in output density is not likely to be cost effective

pricing efficiency under rate of return regulation some empirical evidence for the electric utility industry the authors test quasi optimal pricing rules for rate of return regulation for a sample of electric utilities they estimate the regulated cost function and demand equations by class of customer for the sample to yield the cost and demand parameters required to assess the utility rate structures the results indicate that the price structure of electricity by class of customer is not quasi optimal and that welfare improvement might be possible under alternative prices searching for the price structure which satisfies the criteria they find that commercial users rates have been too high relative to residential and to a lesser extent industrial rates they note that commercial uses tend to be less organized and more poorly represented in the rate making process 16 references 8 tables

measuring the dynamic efficiency costs of regulators preferences municipal water utilities in the arid west evidence suggests that municipal water utility administrators in the western us price water significantly below its marginal cost and in so doing inefficiently exploit aquifer stocks and induce social surplus losses this paper empirically identifies the objective function of those managers measures the deadweight losses resulting from their price discounting decisions and recovers the efficient water pricing policy function from counterfactual experiments in doing so the estimation uses a continuous butconstrained control version of a nested fixed point algorithm in order to measure the important intertemporal consequences of groundwater pricing decisions

the endowment effect and the reference state evidence and manipulations abstract recent reports suggest that the endowment effect may be due to conditions under which it is observed and explained by incentives long recognized in standard theory evidence from new experiments reported here provides empirical support for the role of the economic environment on people s perceived reference state and consequently on their valuations as suggested by koszegi and rabin koszegi b rabin m 2006 a model of reference dependent preferences quarterly journal of economics 121 1133 1165 and indicates that the disappearance of the valuation disparity is more likely due instead to conditions that weaken the perception of reference states further these conditions appear to be poor approximations of those that prevail in most cases for which valuations are normally made

measuring the technical efficiency of municipal water suppliers the role of environmental factors this paper extends the multistage procedure set out by fried schmidt and yaisawarng 1999 to examine the importance of environmental factors when assessing the technical efficiency of water agencies however following simar and wilson s 2007 critique of multistage efficiency analyses the paper uses a bootstrapping approach in order to have consistent inference data are from a cross section of municipal water agencies in ontario canada during 1996 the main findings are that environmental factors explain some of the observed variation in efficiency scores and that water agencies relative efficiency scores are changed substantially after controlling for environmental factors

estimating individual discount rates in denmark a field experiment we estimate individual discount rates with respect to time streams of money using controlled laboratory experiments these discount rates are elicited by means of field experiments involving real monetary rewards the experiments were carried out across denmark using a representative sample of 268 people between 19 and 75 years of age individual discount rates are estimated for various households differentiated by socio demographic characteristics such as income and age our conclusions are that discount rates are constant over the 12 month to 3 year horizons used in these experiments and that discount rates vary substantially with respect to several socio demographic variables hence we conclude that it would be reasonable to assume constant discount rates for specific household types but not the same rates across all households

intertemporal tradeoffs for gains and losses an experimental measurement of discounted utility this article provides a parameter free measurement of utility in intertemporal choice and presents new and more robust evidence on the discounting of money outcomes intertemporal utility was concave for gains and convex for losses consistent with a hypothesis put forward by loewenstein and prelec 1992 discount rates declined over time but less so than previously observed under the assumption of linear utility for approximately 40 of our subjects constant discounting provided the best fit the remaining 60 were most consistent with harvey s 1986 power discounting our data provide little support for the popular quasi hyperbolic model which is widely used in economics today we observed an asymmetry in the discounting of gains and losses that unlike earlier findings cannot be explained by a framing effect

privatization and efficiency differentiating ownership effects from political organizational and dynamic effects this paper argues that the private public ownership factor should be differentiated from other factors that also influence the effect of privatization on efficiency this is empirically confirmed in a longitudinal study of 24 spanish firms for which several political and organizational factors are found to influence the estimated effects of privatization on efficiency the analysis of the timing of the effects reveals a strong significance for post privatization years 5 6 negative and 7 8 positive this suggests that the negative effect of these factors is transitional being eventually offset by the positive effects of the change to private ownership 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification l33

the real time properties of the bank of canada s staff output gap estimates we study the revision properties of the bank of canada s staff output gap estimates since the mid 1980s our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years in line with recent evidence for the u s

an examination of the effect of ownership on the relative efficiency of public and private water utilities the behavior of privately and publicly owned water utilities is examined by estimating a generalized variable cost function containing the regular characteristics of the neoclassical cost function without requiring that cost minimization subject to market prices be imposed as a maintained hypothesis assuming that unobserved shadow prices reflect the regulatory environment of the water industry tests for cost minimization are obtained by deriving shadow prices as functions of market prices the empirical results provide evidence that public water utilities are more efficient than private utilities on average but are more widely dispersed between best and worst practice

hedging supply risks an optimal water portfolio although water supply diversification has been proposed as a solution to dwindling water reserves the optimal mix of natural and manufactured sources of water remains largely unexplored we develop a dynamic portfolio model of water supply that hedges against the supply risks from all potential water sources by taking into account the size of water reserves uncertainties of water flows as well as differences in supply costs the optimal portfolio shares for an existing water supply system are derived and compared with the observed contributions to total water stock revealing unexploited hedging opportunities between various naturally occurring water sources as well as a general over reliance on manufactured water the optimal solution implies that future supply augmentations should target natural sources of water ahead of manufactured water it is estimated that the optimization of the water supply portfolio for a medium sized city results in annual cost savings of up to 463 million

a water supply cost model incorporating spatial variables this paper presents new evidence on scale economies in multi product firms previous studies are limited in view of recent advances in the theory of the multi product firm the water utility is chosen here as a multi product firm providing multiple

the fomc versus the staff where can monetary policymakers add value a key issue in monetary policymaking is the appropriate division of labor between the profes sional staff of the central bank and the appointed policymakers lars e o svensson 1999 argues that the appropriate role of a policymaking group such as the federal open market com mittee fomc in the united states is to make judgments about social welfare taking as given the likely outcomes of different policies as esti mated by the staff in this division the staff is relied upon to assess current and prospective economic conditions and to forecast the effects of different policies policymakers only role is to decide which of the various options should be chosen

long run price inflexibility and efficiency loss for municipal water supply abstract a marginal cost pricing mcp policy for a publicly produced good leads to politically unacceptable price fluctuations when economies of scale exist in plant construction a partial equilibrium analysis of water supply defines a general optimal constant price for water which is a weighted average of the annual marginal short run and capacity expansion costs for special cases of arithmetic or geometric growth in demand the demand growth rate and the discount rate determine the fraction of capital costs which a constant price will recover under conditions which favor the mcp policy the constant pricing policy produces 98 5 of the net benefits produced by the mcp policy

the relative efficiency of public and private firms in a regulated environment the case of u s electric utilities abstract the relative efficiency of privately owned and publicly owned electric utilities is investigated using theoretical and econometric models that allow for the effects of both ownership type and regulation the estimation results indicate that the two types of firms are equally cost inefficient in the united states the average effect of inefficiency is to increase the cost of production by 2 4 percent holding output constant inefficiency increases the average quantities demanded of capital and labor and decreases the average quantity demanded of fuel