the non linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in europe a threshold panel approach this paper investigates the relationship between electricity demand and temperature in the european union we address this issue by means of a panel threshold regression model on 15 european countries over the last two decades our results confirm the non linearity of the link between electricity consumption and temperature found in more limited geographical areas in previous studies by distinguishing between north and south countries we also find that this non linear pattern is more pronounced in the warm countries finally rolling regressions show that the sensitivity of electricity consumption to temperature in summer has increased in the recent period

international technology transfer and the technology gap abstract we build a quality ladders product cycle model that explores how the quality of technology transferred through foreign direct investment fdi is linked to innovation and imitation when the absorptive capacity of ldcs is limited successful imitation of low quality levels makes fdi involving high quality levels possible through reduction of the technology gap a subsidy to imitation or a tax on low quality fdi production encourages imitation relative to innovation thus releasing the constraint faced by foreign firms seeking to produce in the south these forces that stimulate high quality fdi raise southern welfare through lower prices faster innovation and higher wages

price setting supergames with capacity constraints this paper examines the role of industry capacity in enforcing collusion in the context of repeated games for a fixed capacity per firm it is shown that changes in the number of firms have a non monotone effect on the best enforceable cartel price this is due to the fact that while an additional firm lowers the share that each of the other firms enjoys at the collusive price it also increases the losses to each firm should the cartel fail

endogenous market structures in international trade natura facit saltum abstract almost all of the large literature on international trade with imperfect competition assumes exogenous market structures the purpose of this paper is to develop a simple model that generates alternative market structures as nash equilibria for different parameterizations of the basic model equilibrium market structure is a function of the underlying technology familiar configurations such as a duopoly competing in exports or a single multinational producing in both markets arise as special cases small tax policy changes can produce large welfare effects as the equilibrium market structure shifts implying discontinuous jumps in prices quantities and profits

long run competition in capacity short run competition in price and the cournot model in this article we investigate the nature of equilibrium in markets in which firms choose the scale of operation before they make pricing decisions we analyze a duopoly model in which firms choose their capacities before engaging in bertrand like price competition we demonstrate that the cournot outcome is unlikely to emerge in such markets and that the equilibrium tends to be more competitive than the cournot model would predict in addition our results indicate a tendency toward asymmetric firm sizes and price dispersion that results from the mixed strategies firms use in equilibrium

oil price effects on personal consumption expenditures abstract this paper uses a logistic smooth transition model to examine the impact of rising oil prices on personal consumption expenditures in open and industrialized economies the empirical results suggest a nonlinear and asymmetric relation between oil price changes and personal consumption expenditures in particular the effects of rising oil prices on personal consumption expenditures are greater than those of falling oil prices while oil price changes affect personal consumption expenditures via real balance effects smooth transition effects also come into play below a threshold value an increase in oil prices reduces personal consumption expenditures in other words in the face of uncertainty regarding future oil prices consumers initially rationally postpone spending however once oil prices above the threshold after a prolonged upward trend the prices of domestic production factors rise this fuels continued price hikes and further increases personal consumption expenditures until a cost pushed inflation takes hold due to differences in economic developments and structures the effects of rising oil prices vary from one country to another with different countries usually to different monetary policies from each other as a result personal consumption expenditures also show various patterns across countries

the multinational firm direct investment is incorporated into a simple general equilibrium model of international trade the analysis focuses on an attempt to endogenize the internalization decision it is argued that a reasonable approach assumes that arm s length contracts must be simple so that complex arrangements require internalization the model relates direct investment to the degree of underlying uncertainty and to fundamental trade determinants such as relative factor endowments the behavior of the model contrasts sharply with that of the markusen helpman model which takes internalization for granted

the dynamics of electricity demand in pakistan a panel cointegration analysis abstract this paper examines the dynamics of electricity demand in pakistan at the aggregate and sectoral levels over the period 1978 2012 panel cointegration test and fully modified ordinary least squares method is employed to determine the long run relationship between electricity consumption real income real price of electricity and domestic price of non energy products the results reveal that electricity demand is more responsive to changes in income than changes in prices at the aggregate and disaggregate levels short run and long run income elasticities are positive and statistically significant supporting the conservation hypothesis it appears from the results that long run price elasticities are negative and significant at the aggregate level and for the agriculture commercial residential sectors and public utilities the short run price elasticities are significant but low in magnitude which implies that changes in electricity price exert minimal effect on the electricity consumption in pakistan the domestic price of non energy products is positive and significant for aggregate sample in the short run the domestic price of non energy products exert significant negative positive impact on electricity demand in the agriculture industrial sectors the results thus provide important information to the agents operating in the electricity market regarding the income and pricing policies and helps in planning the future strategy of electricity demand management

experimental evidence of a sunk cost paradox a study of pricing behavior in bertrand edgeworth duopoly a well known implication of microeconomic theory is that sunk costs should have no effect on decision making we test this hypothesis with a human subjects experiment students recruited from graduate business courses with an average of over six years of work experience played the role of firms in a repeated price setting duopoly game in which both firms had identical capacity constraints and costs including a sunk cost that varied across experimental sessions over six different values we find contrary to the prediction of microeconomic theory that subjects pricing decisions show sizable differences across treatments the effect of the sunk cost is non monotonic as it increases from low to medium levels average prices decrease but as it increases from medium to high levels average prices increase these effects are not apparent initially but develop quickly and persist throughout the game cachon and camerer s 1996 loss avoidance is consistent with both effects while cost based pricing predicts only the latter effect and is inconsistent with the former

oligopoly supergames some empirical evidence on prices and margins this paper is a panel data study on the behavior of prices and margins of oligopolies involved in repeated games the authors examine two supergame models which generate very different predictions about the cyclical behavior of prices and margins evidence on the levels of price cost margins indicates that oligopolies achieve equilibria that more closely resemble a one shot cournot nash outcome than monopoly the authors find however that industries with high price cost margins exhibit cyclical price behavior which is quite different from that of unconcentrated industries little evidence of price wars during either recessions or booms is found copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

testing functional forms in energy modeling an application of the bayesian approach to u s electricity demand abstract in the estimation of demand functions for energy resources linear log linear translog or aids functional forms are commonly assumed it is frequently debated which is the best functional forms to employ in order to accurately represent the underlying relationships between the consumption of various energy resources and explanatory variables such as energy prices weather variables income and other factors in an example analysis of residential energy demand employing cross sectional household level data we find that the aids model is slightly better than the translog model which is superior to the log linear model and which in turn is better than the linear model this is in sharp contrast to previous findings in this context

modeling energy demand some emerging issues abstract the proliferation of papers on energy demand modeling has offered different dimensions both in terms of methodology and estimation while this development has strengthened our understanding of the subject it may render the identification of gaps in the literature arduous for future research thus this study sets out to document some emerging issues that seem to have engendered new directions on energy demand modeling ranging from asymmetric price responses time varying demand parameters triangulation analyses to seasonal and climate change effects it is hoped that access to this review complemented with the previous ones will facilitate the comprehension of the extant literature as well as areas of future research in energy demand modeling

the boundaries of multinational enterprises and the theory of international trade this paper begins with a review of empirical evidence on multinational firms conceptual underpinnings of a theory are developed relying in particular on the notion of knowledge capital as a mobile joint input into geographically separated production facilities this idea is embedded in a simple two country general equilibrium model that supports multinational production in equilibrium under conditions consistent with the empirical evidence the final section examines internalization and shows why certain properties of knowledge capital also imply a preference for transferring technologies internally within the firm rather than through arm s length markets

rationing rules and bertrand edgeworth equilibria in large markets abstract in a market with concave downward sloping demand and symmetric firms which compete in prices with constant marginal costs and capacity limits it is shown that the supports of the symmetric mixed strategy nash equilibria converge to the unique competitive price provided that unsatisfied demand is allocated according to the surplus maximizing rationing rule

intellectual property rights foreign direct investment and industrial development this paper develops a north south product cycle model in which innovation imitation and the ow of fdi are all endogenously determined in the model a strengthening of ipr protection in the south reduces the rate of imitation and it increases the ow of fdi indeed

consumer rationing and cournot outcomes experimental evidence author affiliation jason j lepore department of economics orfalea business college california polytechnic state university san luis obispo ca 93407 usa e mail jlepore calpoly edu aric p shafran dagger department of economics orfalea business college california polytechnic state university san luis obispo ca 93407 usa e mail ashafran calpoly edu corresponding author acknowledgment the authors acknowledge the orfalea college of business for financial support we thank blake allison for assistance running the experiments and the anonymous reviewers and conference participants at the north american economic science association meetings for helpful comments 1 introductionthis article reports the results of duopoly market experiments where firms first commit to capacities and then compete in prices the theoretical literature pertaining to these duopoly models suggests that the way residual demand is rationed is fundamental to the character of equilibrium outcomes the goal of this study is to test the impact of residual demand rationing on the behavior of subjects in an experimental environment in a two stage game where firms first commit to capacities and then compete in prices kreps and scheinkman 1983 hereafter k s prove that the unique nash equilibrium outcome coincides with the cournot equilibrium outcome with efficient rationing of residual demand efficient rationing means that the higher priced firm is left with the worst possible residual demand curve if demand is composed of many similar consumers that each demand multiple units and we construct aggregate demand by way of a representative consumer then efficient rationing is imposed by the model on the other hand if demand is instead composed of a mass of consumers with unit demand and varied willingness to pay then the efficient rationing rule imposes the restriction that the highest valued consumers buy from the firm with the lower price davidson and deneckere 1986 make a compelling argument that proportional rationing is a more appropriate assumption in the latter case proportional rationing means that a uniform distribution of possible consumers buy from the firm with the lower price davidson and deneckere show that under proportional rationing as well as any rationing rule other than the efficient rule the cournot outcome is not necessarily the unique equilibrium of the two stage game the davidson and deneckere result is problematic for the k s model because it deflates the generality of their theoretical result 1lepore 2009 further clarifies the relationship between proportional rationing and the cournot outcome in the k s game with proportional rationing the cournot outcome is the unique nash equilibrium only when capacity cost is greater than a threshold level the purpose of our experiments is to assess if the play of experimental subjects in the two stage game is sensitive to the rationing scheme in the way that theory predicts to do this we construct an experimental design with four treatments the treatments vary by two controls the demand rationing scheme and the cost of capacity we conduct two efficient rationing treatments one with a high capacity cost and one with a low cost for both costs theory predicts that the outcome coincide with the cournot model we also conduct two treatments using proportional rationing one with each of the capacity costs used in the efficient rationing treatments with a high cost theory predicts the outcome should coincide with the cournot model as in the case of efficient rationing however theory predicts that the cournot outcome should not occur when the cost of capacity is low and prices should not clear the market recently several authors have used laboratory experiments as a means to empirically test the predictions of the k s model

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

advance production and cournot outcomes an experimental investigation abstract an experiment designed to assess the effects of advance production decisions on posted offer market performance is reported six of the twelve triopolies were conducted under standard posted offer rules in the remaining markets sellers made binding production commitments prior to posting prices an alteration that shifts the unique stage game nash equilibrium from the competitive to the cournot outcome as predicted advance production decisions raised prices and lowered output nevertheless stable cournot outcomes were never observed

residential electricity demand in spain new empirical evidence using aggregate data this paper presents an empirical analysis on residential demand for electricity this analysis has been performed using aggregate panel data at the province level for 47 spanish provinces for the period from 2000 to 2008 for this purpose we estimated a log log demand equation for electricity consumption using a dynamic partial adjustment approach this dynamic demand function has been estimated using a two step system gmm estimator proposed by blundell and bond 1998 the purpose of this empirical analysis is to highlight some of the characteristics of spanish residential electricity demand particular attention has been paid to the influence of price income and weather conditions on electricity demand the estimated short and long run own price elasticities are negative as expected but lower than 1 furthermore weather variables have a significant impact on electricity demand

a comparison of posted offer and double auction pricing institutions this paper presents an experimental study of a computerized posted offer pricing mechanism that captures many of the basic institutional features of retail exchange in the u s posted offer market performance is evaluated relative to double auction market performance using two supply and demand designs subject experience with the trading mechanism is explicitly considered as an experimental treatment variable the market data suggest that prices tend to be higher and efficiency lower under posted offer pricing relative to double auction however the institutional effect appears to interact with other design conditions when feasible the predictive power of competitive nash and limit price theoretic equilibria are empirically evaluated

multinationals multi plant economies and the gains from trade a general equilibrium model of a multinational enterprise based on economies of multi plant operation is developed these economies are modelled as arising from the existence of a joint input whose productivity in each production facility is independent of the number of facilities maintained by a firm the multinational thus offers the world increased technical efficiency by eliminating the duplication of the joint input that would occur with independent national firms since this technical efficiency may come at the expense of increased market power the full determinants of home country host country and world welfare are considered

on the power of indicators how the choice of fuel poverty indicator affects the identification of the target population in light of the creation of the eu energy poverty observatory epov in january 2018 and the increase in debates on how fuel poverty is measured we propose a critical analysis of fuel poverty indi

revenue sharing and control rights in team production theories and evidence from joint ventures this paper presents a model of the joint venture that is grounded in the stylized facts we found from a sample of 200 joint venture contracts the model incorporates the revenue sharing contract into the incomplete contract frameworks of grossman hart moore property rights theory and the transaction cost theory of the firm and emphasizes the impact of expropriation joint control can be optimal as well as unilateral control our econometric analysis of the revenue sharing and control arrangements offers strong support to our property rights theory motivated model with self investment but rejects that with cooperative investment the transaction cost theory motivated model leaves some important empirical findings unexplained our findings also reject some of the existing theories of joint ownership

foreign direct investment and international trade in a continuum ricardian trade model abstract we develop a continuum ricardian trade model to capture both north south trade and technology transfer via foreign direct investment fdi by multinational enterprises mnes we show that there is a unique range of products produced in the south by mnes in the case of an infinitely elastic supply of expatriates if the ability of southern workers in absorbing northern technology increases then a the range of mne production increases b northern workers s welfare and southern workers welfare change in opposite directions and c the world aggregate welfare increases under certain conditions we explore issues such as north south wage gaps fdi policies and the product cycle we also derive results under a general supply of expatriates

temperature and seasonality influences on spanish electricity load abstract deregulation of the spanish electricity market in 1998 and the possible listing of electricity or weather derivative contracts have encouraged the study of the relationship between electricity demand and weather in spain in this paper a transfer function intervention model is developed for forecasting daily electricity load from cooling and heating degree days the influence of weather and seasonality is proved and is significant even when the autoregressive effects and the dynamic specification of the temperature are taken into account the estimated general model shows a high predictive power the results and information presented in this paper could be of interest for current users and potential traders in the deregulated spanish electricity market

indications for a changing electricity demand pattern the temperature dependence of electricity demand in the netherlands abstract this study assesses the electricity demand pattern in the relatively temperate climate of the netherlands latitude 52 30 n daily electricity demand and average temperature during the period from 1970 until 2007 are investigated for possible trends in the temperature dependence of electricity demand we hypothesize that the increased use of cooling applications has shifted the temperature dependence of electricity demand upwards in summer months our results show significant increases in temperature dependence of electricity demand in may june september october and during the summer holidays during the period studied temperature dependence in these months has shifted from negative to positive meaning that a higher temperature now leads to an increased electricity demand in these months rather than a decreased demand as observed historically although electricity demand in countries with moderate summer temperatures such as the netherlands generally peaks in winter months and shows a minimum in summer months this trend may signal the development of an additional peak in summer especially given the expected climatic change as power generating capacity may be negatively influenced by higher temperatures due to decreasing process cooling possibilities an increasing electricity demand at higher temperatures may have important consequences for power generation capacity planning and maintenance scheduling

nash equilibrium and buyer rationing rules experimental evidence i introduction this paper presents the results of laboratory experiments comparing the effect of two buyer rationing rules on capacity constrained duopoly markets bertrand edgeworth games this setting offers an excellent opportunity to compare the stage game nash prediction with other equilibria of a repeated game under otherwise identical conditions the rationing rule generates either a unique pure strategy equilibrium or a unique mixed strategy equilibrium of the stage game further collusive outcomes of the repeated game are supported by a wider range of discount factors for one rationing rule than the other this study presents evidence that the single stage nash equilibrium has predictive power for both rationing rules even in repeated settings this result appears to be robust whether the nash equilibrium is in pure strategies or exists only in mixed strategies in modeling capacity constrained price games the choice of rationing rule is possibly the most arbitrary decision a theorist makes in the literature of single shot bertrand edgeworth games we can find examples of nearly identical models which yield substantively different results due to differences in the rationing rule assumed examples are beckmann s 1965 model and levitan and shubik 1972 allen and hellwig 1986 and vives 1986 and kreps and scheinkman 1983 and davidson and deneckere 1986 laboratory experiments provide an interesting opportunity to examine the empirical consequences of alternative buyer rationing rules knowledge of the type of buyer rationing scheme involved with field data is usually unavailable to a researcher in laboratory experiments the researcher can control the type of buyer rationing rule to be used and compare the effects of alternative rules this study provides a first step toward an empirical understanding of the effects of rationing rules one of the rationing rules that i study the value queue 1 is mathematically more tractable than an alternative the random queue 2 hence the authors are able to generalize the value queue models in other dimensions however the value queue assumption reservation values that comprise demand are ordered from highest to lowest should be viewed as a serious restriction on the applicability of these models section ii relates laboratory and field experiments to single shot bertrand edgeworth nash equilibria section iii describes the development and recent contributions to bertrand edgeworth oligopoly theory and demonstrates the effect of rationing rule assumptions on theoretical predictions i describe the experimental design in section iv and identify the competitive monopoly joint profit maximum and single shot nash predictions additionally qualitative differences predicted by single shot and repeated game nash equilibria are discussed experimental results follow in section v with concluding remarks in section vi ii laboratory and field experiments and the nash equilibrium existing laboratory evidence for capacity constrained price games has been compared to the single shot nash equilibrium only ketchum smith and williams 1984 and kruse rassenti reynolds and smith 1993 provide initial results as to the predictive strength of the single stage nash equilibrium in a laboratory environment ketchum smith and williams compare the prices resulting from four seller plato computer assisted posted offer markets the comparison is between one treatment group in which the competitive equilibrium is also the single stage nash equilibrium and another treatment group in which the competitive equilibrium is not a nash equilibrium they find significantly different market outcomes between the two groups kruse rassenti reynolds and smith 1987 test a four seller constant marginal cost bertrand edgeworth model using a komogorov smirnoff test they reject the hypothesis that the actual price distribution matches the mixed strategy price distribution predicted by the theory

an empirical analysis of electricity consumption in cyprus abstract the paper presents the first empirical analysis of electricity consumption in cyprus using annual data from 1960 to 2004 we have examined electricity use in the residential and the services sectors which are the fastest growing electricity consumers in the island and its interaction with income prices and the weather the analysis was performed with the aid of time series analysis techniques such as unit root tests with and without a structural break in levels cointegration tests vector error correction models granger causality tests and impulse response functions results show long term elasticities of electricity use above unity for income and of the order of 0 3 to 0 4 for prices in the short term electricity consumption is rather inelastic mostly affected by weather fluctuations granger causality tests confirm exogeneity of electricity prices and bidirectional causality between residential electricity consumption and private income the commercial sector is less elastic and reverts faster to equilibrium than the residential sector despite the relatively small sample size results reported here are quite robust and can be used for forecasts and policy analyses

impact of temperature on electricity demand evidence from delhi and indian states abstract electricity for cooling improves health and quality of life and is an important mode of adapting to extreme weather conditions and to climate change this study measures the change in electricity demand in response to weather shocks at the household level in delhi and at various aggregate levels in india our econometric analysis uses a semi parametric model to capture the nonlinearity of short run temperature response on average aggregate electricity demand in india increases by 11 or more at temperatures above 30 c from demand at temperatures of 21 24 c with substantial heterogeneity across states aggregate demand in delhi increases by 30 or more at temperatures above 30 c using rich micro data on electricity demand in delhi we do a first of its kind estimation of household level temperature response we find evidence that low income consumers especially those living in slums show limited incremental response to high temperatures likely due to an absence of cooling options these findings underscore the need to improve our understanding of the constraints posed by poverty on climate change adaptation and for interventions to mitigate risks of heat stress among the poor this also suggests rising affluence will lead to sharp increases in electricity demand for cooling

posted offer markets in near continuous time an experimental investigation this paper reports an experiment conducted to evaluate a near continuous variant of the posted offer trading institution where the number of periods in a market session is increased by reducing sharply each period s maximum length experimental results suggest that although decisions in time truncated periods are not equivalent to periods of longer duration extensive repetition improves considerably the drawing power of equilibrium predictions in some challenging environments nevertheless significant deviations remain in the near continuous framework we also observe that the extra data collected in the near continuous framework allows new insights into price convergence and price signaling

the demand for electricity in israel quarterly data for israel are used to compare and contrast three dynamic econometric methodologies for estimating the demand for electricity by households and industrial companies these are the dynamic regression model and two approaches to cointegration ols and maximum likelihood since we find evidence of seasonal unit roots in the data we also test for seasonal cointegration we find that the scale elasticities are similar in all three approaches but the ols price elasticities are considerably lower moreover ols suggests non cointegration the paper concludes by stochastically simulating the drms to calculate upside risk in electricity demand