household saving in ldcs credit markets insurance and welfare some ways in which farmers in ldcs can protect their living standards against fluctuations in income are discussed after considering the theory of consumption under uncertainty when there is no or limited borrowing the case where some borrowing is allowed is also examined empirical evidence from some ldcs is used to look at i household borrowing and lending their importance and timing and their role in smoothing consumption and ii the life cycle behavior of consumption and income the results suggest that hump lifecycle saving is not likely to be a very important generator of wealth in ldcs and provide further evidence on the limited role of credit markets

nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

testing the stochastic structure of production a flexible moment based approach conventional production function specifications are shown to impose restrictions on the probability distribution of output that cannot be tested with the conventional models these restrictions have important implications for firm behavior under uncertainty a flexible representation of a firm s stochastic technology is developed based on the moments of the probability distribution of output these moments are a unique representation of the technology and are functions of inputs large sample estimators are developed for a linear moment model that is sufficiently flexible to test the restrictions implied by conventional production function specifications the flexible moment based approach is applied to milk production data the first three moments of output are statistically significant functions of inputs the cross moment restrictions implied by conventional models are rejected

precautionary behavior migrant networks and household consumption decisions an empirical analysis using household panel data from rural china abstract we develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk 10 of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive and this increases to 15 for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line we next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases

diversification strategies and adaptation deficit evidence from rural communities in niger summary the paper provides fresh empirical evidence on the adaptation process in niger rural communities using original longitudinal socio economic panel data merged with granular geo referenced climatic information we identify the main drivers and impacts of crop and labor diversification which constitute two livelihood strategies on moderating the adaptation deficit in doing so we account for the interdependence between the two diversification practices and potential reverse causality between welfare outcomes and diversification behavior moreover we condition the impacts of diversification on different sections of the welfare distribution to capture potential non linear effects our results reveal that the diversification has positive and significant welfare impacts when most vulnerable households rely on it as an adaptation strategy to mid run climate variability and as a coping strategy to short run market shocks at the same time our results find lower but still positive impacts for well endowed households that are likely to diversify their activity portfolio given the very limited presence of policy support we conclude that the rural nigerien communities are characterized by a large and autonomous adaptation response which constitutes a key leverage mechanism for policy makers we thus suggest government interventions aimed at supporting the most important diversification drivers but also aimed at straightening some channels such as network infrastructures or the promotion of local crop varieties which may have a greater potential in triggering diversification

a cross section analysis of household demand for food and nutrients in tanzania abstract undernutrition and malnutrition are still problems of unacceptable proportions in many developing countries however the debate on the roles of income and other socio economic variables such as women s education and household size on food and nutrient demand continues this study examines the demand for food and nutrients amongst households in tanzania using recent survey data a quadratic almost ideal demand system quaids is employed to estimate price and expenditure elasticities as well as the impact of socio economic variables on food demand patterns a moment based instrumental variable approach is then used to analyse the determinants of nutrient demand the results show that income and other socio economic variables exert significant effects on the demand for food and nutrients the estimated expenditure elasticities for the nutrients range from 0 307 for iron to 1 26 for vitamin b12 the elasticities are higher for those micronutrients that are consumed through animal products and lower for those micronutrients that are mainly obtained through staple foods these results reflect the higher expenditure elasticities for meat fish eggs milk and milk products as well as fruits and vegetables relative to cereals and pulses reinforcing the assertion that the demand for vitamins a and b12 as well as calcium and zinc will increase with rising income

cash crop production food price volatility and rural market integration in the third world large farmers in the third world often devote to cash crops a larger share of their land than do small farmers this paper suggests a possible explanation even in the presence of food markets third world farmers food security is best assured by food self sufficiency a model of crop portfolio choice under multivariate risk is used to show that reasonable assumptions regarding risk and preferences reproduce the observed pattern simulations further indicate that food market integration reduces the need for food self sufficiency policy implications are drawn regarding domestic trade liberalization and agricultural technology

insurance market efficiency and crop choices in pakistan this paper tests the efficiency of insurance markets in the pakistan punjab by examining how crop choices are affected by the presence of price and yield risk we estimate reduced form and structural models of crop choices although we cannot reject the hypothesis that village members efficiently share risk among themselves production choices are shown to depend on risk existing risk sharing and selfinsurance mechanisms thus imperfectly protect punjab farmers against village level shocks results also indicate that households respond to consumption price risk thereby suggesting that empirical and theoretical work on risk should avoid putting an exclusive emphasis on yield and output price risk

fundamentals panics and bank distress during the depression we assemble bank level and other data for fed member banks to model determinants of bank failure fundamentals explain bank failure risk well the first two friedman schwartz crises are not associated with positive unexplained residual failure risk or increased importance of bank illiquidity for forecasting failure the third friedman schwartz crisis is more ambiguous but increased residual failure risk is small in the aggregate the final crisis early 1933 saw a large unexplained increase in bank failure risk local contagion and illiquidity may have played a role in pre 1933 bank failures even though those effects were not large in their aggregate impact

effects of household size and composition on consumption in rural households in matabeleland south zimbabwe abstract this study using a survey of rural households in zimbabwe in 1990 91 focuses on the effects of changing household composition on patterns of expenditures and provides estimates of the cost of a child as well as of family members in other age groups in addition to age differences in the size and direction of responses to changing family composition the paper highlights significant differences across product groups these effects are more muted in larger households

do migrants really save more understanding the impact of remittances on savings in rural china abstract this article studies the impact of remittances on the savings behaviour of rural households in china using a primary survey undertaken by the authors in 2006 allowing for endogeneity and left censoring of remittances we find that the marginal propensity to save out of remittances is well below half of that out of other sources of incomes moreover we find no evidence of any direct effect of remittances on either capital input or gross output of farm production these findings are robust with respect to alternative definition of savings and are in line with recent studies which conclude that remittances are largely used for consumption purposes by rural chinese households

the welfare effects of crop biodiversity as an adaptation to climate shocks in kenya abstract this paper investigates the effects of crop biodiversity on farm income and production risk using a large panel dataset of rural households in kenya we consider three different metrics of in situ on farm crop diversification richness evenness and concentration we apply a partial moments based model to test the effects of each strategy on welfare defined as expected crop income variability variance and downside risk skewness our comprehensive econometric approach differentiates climatic shocks weather and climate change the results suggest that the benefits from greater diversification in terms of enhanced land productivity and lower production costs could surpass the foregone benefit from greater efficiency associated with more concentrated production systems crop richness and evenness each reduce exposure to crop income risk especially for more vulnerable farmers who produce below the expected revenue threshold farmers who rely on greater crop specialization on the contrary are more exposed to crop income risk

looking for boy girl discrimination in household expenditure data the ability to test for discrimination in the allocation of goods between boys and girls is hampered by a lack of data on intrahousehold distribution the analysis presented here allows inferences about intrahousehold allocation to be made from householdlevel expenditure data for a given level of income families with children will spend less on adult goods in order to purchase children s goods if household purchasing favors boys over girls smaller expenditures on adult goods would be made by families with boys as compared with those with girls a method for determining adult goods is described and the procedure for detecting gender bias is applied to data from c6te d lvoire and thailand the data show no evidence of discriminatio n between boys and girls in c6te d lvoire and a small and statistically insignificant bias in favor of boys in thailand how commodities are allocated among the members of a household has recently occasioned a good deal of interest assessments of poverty and income distribution based on household incomes or expenditures will be misleading if allocation within the household is unequal the position of women and girls has been of particular concern and there is a considerable amount of empirical evidence much of it from the indian subcontinent that documents discrimination against females see in particular bhagwati 1973 sen 1984 sen and sengupta 1983 miller 1981 bardhan 1982 and kynch and sen 1983 as well as survey papers by behrman 1987 and harriss 1987 much of the evidence is concerned with measurements of nutritional outcomes mortality and health status rather than with the direct allocation of goods by gender the difficulty in trying to determine the intrahousehold allocation of goods is that household budget surveys the obvious source of data record consumption not of individuals but of households and while attempts can be made to the author is a professor of public affairs and of economics and international affairs at princeton university and is a consultant to the population and human resources department of the world bank the author thanks dwayne benjamin who provided for excellent research assistance he is grateful to him and to members of the economic growth center at yale university for helpful comments this is a revised and shortened version of living standards measurement study working paper 39 the allocation of goods within the household adults children and gender june 1987 the results from thailand were not included in the working paper 1989 the international bank for reconstruction and development the world bank

asymmetry partial moments and production risk partial moment functions are proposed as a flexible way to characterize and estimate asymmetric effects of inputs on output distributions methods for econometric estimation of partial moment functions and tests for input symmetry and location scale distributions are presented a monte carlo study demonstrates properties of proposed tests a study of ecuadorian potato production illustrates the methods hypotheses of input symmetry and location scale are rejected a risk value model based on partial moments implies that fertilizer is risk increasing and fungicides and labor are risk reducing in potato production whereas an expected utility model based on full moments has the opposite implications

permanent household income and consumption in urban south america milton friedman s permanent income hypothesis pih is considerably more complex and difficult to test than it appears at first sight which is why certain of its postulates still cannot be accepted or rejected with certainty one of the chief difficulties is that of separating the effects on consumption of permanent income which is unobservable and of various observable household characteristics which may be highly correlated with permanent income but may also be presumed to affect consumption directly this difficulty can be overcome provided a variable can be found which is associated with permanent income but has no independent direct effect on the propensity to consume if households are grouped by classes of that variable the permanent consumption propensity or elasticity can be estimated from mean income and consumption in the groups this technique requires the assumption of zero mean transitory income in each group but does not depend on the postulate that transitory income is uncorrelated with consumption for these reasons it cannot be applied to individual households this paper presents and estimates a model which separates the direct and indirect effects on consumption of a series of observable characteristics using regression techniques on individual household observations this makes it possible to estimate all the parameters of the model both the consumption propensity or elasticity and the contribution to permanent income of each observable explanatory variable the technique still requires that at least one of the explanatory variables affect consumption only through permanent income but for all other variables both direct and indirect influences can be estimated and the propensity to consume a given income can vary among households with different characteristics another principal problem with the pih is the assumption that transitory income and consumption are uncorrelated efforts to test this postulate can lead to very different results ranging from agreement with the hypothesis to findings of high propensities to consume transitory income see robert ferber pp 1306 09 this inconsistency and continued controversy over the hypothesis is due to the fact that permanent income cannot be estimated exactly but can be known only with an error which is conceptually distinct from transitory income empirical work on the pih has uniformly overlooked this fact treating estimates of permanent income as exact and regarding the whole of the unexplained residual as transitory income the present model explicitly distinguishes the estimation error from the error of transitory income or consumption the two transitory components can then be assumed to be uncorrelated while the part of permanent income which is not explained is consumed exactly like the explained part whether residual income and consumption appear to be correlated or not then depends on the relative sizes of these two components the unexplained permanent part and the true transitory part this technique has the further advantage that estimating the variance of the error of estimation makes it possible to tell how well a set of observable variables explain permanentincome this explanation may be better than the brookings institution robert solow richard eckaus and robert hall supervised the dissertation 1974 on which this article is based i am particularly grateful to ross williams and robert hall for help in specifying and estimating the model and to denisard alves for a crucial suggestion william cline irwin friend ricardo ffrench davis and robert ferber provided helpful comments on earlier versions subsequent discussions with surjit bhalla and robert lawrence have been most useful i am also much indebted to the managing editor and to a referee for improvements in the final version

crop biodiversity risk management and the implications of agricultural assistance this paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of financial assistance to farms on crop biodiversity in an uncertain setting the findings reveal that risk aversion is an important driving force for crop biodiversity conservation risk averse farmers can hedge against the uncertainty they face by allocating land to different crop species however policies intended to stabilize revenues by supporting particular species may alter this link by delinking crop biodiversity from the management of revenues risk

what do we learn from the weather the new climate economy literature a rapidly growing body of research applies panel methods to examine how temperature precipitation and windstorms influence economic outcomes these studies focus on changes in weather realizations over time within a given spatial area and demonstrate impacts on agricultural output industrial output labor productivity energy demand health conflict and economic growth among other outcomes by harnessing exogenous variation over time within a given spatial unit these studies help credibly identify i the breadth of channels linking weather and the economy ii heterogeneous treatment effects across different types of locations and iii nonlinear effects of weather variables this paper reviews the new literature with two purposes first we summarize recent work providing a guide to its methodologies datasets and findings second we consider applications of the new literature including insights for the damage function within models that seek to assess the potential economic effects of future climate change jel c51 d72 o13 q51 q54

the impact of ad hoc disaster and crop insurance programs on the use of risk reducing conservation tillage practices the paper estimates the impacts of risk reducing government programs on the use of conservation tillage no till and other conservation tillage practices in agriculture conservation tillage can be used to reduce production risk from weather shocks however subsidized crop insurance and disaster payments also reduce risk through financial assistance the paper examines the extent to which risk reducing tillage practices and government programs are substitutes for each other the economic model shows that a decline in average weather conditions increases the use of conservation tillage the economic model also shows that the impact of weather risk and risk aversion on risk reducing practices like conservation tillage are ambiguous the effect depends on the degree that losses are offset by government payments the paper uses county level tillage practice data from the conservation tillage information center for the three state region of iowa nebraska and south dakota results are estimated using instrumental variables and spatial panel data techniques instruments for the program participation and payment data include political variables and weather data the empirical analysis shows that recent disaster and indemnity payments are associated with an increase in the use of no till and a decrease in the use of other conservation till results also show that producers in counties with recent drought and flood events are more likely to use other conservation tillage the results imply that there may be unintended impacts of changes to agricultural policies like disaster payments and crop insurance on the use of on farm conservation practices

on crop biodiversity risk exposure and food security in the highlands of ethiopia this paper investigates the effects of crop genetic diversity on farm productivity and production risk in the highlands of ethiopia using a moment based approach the analysis uses a stochastic production function capturing mean variance and skewness effects welfare implications of diversity are evaluated using a certainty equivalent measured as expected income minus a risk premium reflecting the cost of risk we find that the effect of diversity on skewness dominates its effect on variance meaning that diversity reduces the cost of risk the analysis also shows that the beneficial effects of diversity

migration risk and liquidity constraints in el salvador abstract this article utilizes panel data from el salvador to investigate the use of transnational migration as an ex post risk management strategy i show that adverse agricultural conditions in el salvador increase both migration to the united states and remittances sent back to el salvador i show that in the absence of any agricultural shocks the probability that a household sent members to the united states would have decreased on average by 24 26 i also show that the 2001 earthquakes reduced net migration to the united states a one standard deviation increase in earthquake damage reduced the average probability of northward migration by 37 11 the evidence suggests that the effects of the earthquakes had more to do with households retaining labor at home to cope with the effects of the disaster than with the earthquakes disrupting migration financing

the macroeconomic consequences of disasters abstract natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro economy in the short run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production yet interestingly developing countries and smaller economies face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies a close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns countries with a higher literacy rate better institutions higher per capita income higher degree of openness to trade and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macro economy these all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction financial conditions also seem to be of importance countries with more foreign exchange reserves and higher levels of domestic credit but with less open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters with less adverse spillover into domestic production

the failure of the bank of united states a defense of joseph lucia note in a recent article in an economic history journal joseph l lucia 1985 reappraised the analysis by milton friedman and anna j schwartz 1963 of the failure of the bank of united states in december 1930 in their extraordinary reply friedman and schwartz 1986 question lucia s scientific integrity as well as the scientific standards of the journal in which lucia s article appeared their opening paragraph states

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

smallholder technical efficiency controlling for environmental production conditions abstract smallholder agricultural production depends heavily on environmental production conditions that are largely exogenously determined yet few data sets collect necessary detailed information on environmental production conditions this oversight raises the spectre of likely omitted variables bias because farmers input choices typically respond in part to environmental conditions moreover because environmental production conditions are rarely symmetrically distributed the omission also generally leads to upward bias in estimated technical inefficiency and to biased estimates of the correlates of estimated technical inefficiency as well using panel data from 464 traditional rice plots in cote d ivoire we show that controlling for heterogeneous environmental production conditions significantly changes inferences perhaps especially with respect to smallholder rice farmers estimated technical inefficiency

economic and ecological trade offs of agricultural specialization at different spatial scales specialization in agricultural systems can lead to trade offs between economic gains and ecosystem functions we suggest and explore a conceptual framework in which economic gains can be maximized when production activities are specialized at increasingly broader scales from the household to the village region or above particularly when markets for outputs and inputs function well conversely more specialization likely reduces biodiversity and significantly limits ecosystem functions when agricultural specialization increases and moves to broader scales as a result of improved infrastructure and markets or other drivers ecosystem functions can also be endangered at broader spatial scales policies to improve agricultural incomes may influence the level of specialization at different scales and thus affect the severity of the trade offs this paper takes jambi province in indonesia a current hotspot of rubber and oil palm monoculture as a case study to illustrate these issues we empirically show that the level of specialization differs across scales with higher specialization at household and village levels and higher diversification towards the province level we discuss ways to resolve trade offs between economic gains and ecological costs including landscape design targeted policies and adoption of long term perspectives

children and household economic behavior this paper looks at some of the methodological issues that arise in modeling the effects of children on household behavior and presents some estimates for selected areas for our purposes household behavior will be taken to refer to household decisions on labor supply the allocation of expenditure to different periods and the decision as to what to do with the difference between income and expenditure i shall be concerned mainly with the effects of dependent children and i restrict attention largely to western societies excerpt

the contribution of genetic resources and diversity to wheat production in the punjab of pakistan the ability to meet the world s growing food demand dramatically improved with the release of modern semidwarf or green revolution wheat varieties in the early 1960s despite initial and subsequent success in improving yield potential and yield stability maintaining disease resistance and improving other plant characteristics the green revolution has provoked criticism and debate a major issue in this debate concerns the effect of scientific plant breeding technology on crop genetic diversity which is believed to have important implications for global and national food security and producer welfare

vulnerability seasonality and poverty in ethiopia most studies examining the dynamics of welfare have found large fluctuations in consumption over relatively short periods suggesting substantial short run movements in and out of poverty the consequence is that cross section poverty research may not be able to identify the poor in this study we explore this short run variability further we use a data set on a panel of 1450 households in different communities in rural ethiopia surveyed thrice over 18 months on average year to year poverty is very similar however we find high variability in consumption and poverty over the seasons and year by year econometric analysis suggests that consumption is affected by idiosyncratic and common shocks including rainfall and household specific crop failure while households respond to seasonal incentives related to changing labour demand and prices the results imply that a larger number of households are vulnerable to shocks than implied by the standard poverty statistics while some of the non poor in the

farm nonfarm linkages in rural sub saharan africa this paper is an accumulation over the past 25 years of a body of detailed work examining the structure of africa s rural nonfarm economy first it systematically reviews empirical evidence on the nature and magnitude of the african rural nonfarm economy it then explores differences across locality and size across countries and over time in an effort to assess likely patterns of growth a subsequent review of key production and consumption parameters allows an estimate of the magnitude of the agricultural growth multipliers in africa the paper concludes with a brief discussion of policies and programs that will be necessary if farm nonfarm growth linkages are to achieve their full potential

diversity productivity and temporal stability in the economies of humans and nature abstract recent advances in ecology are of great potential relevance to economists here we present two ecological models of mechanisms of competition and coexistence and use these to derive how the primary productivity of ecosystems the amount of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere and stored by plants the efficiency of resource use and the spatial and temporal variability of productivity and resource use should depend on diversity we then discuss the relevance of these results to 1 ecosystem services and the economic value of diversity and 2 the functioning of any competitive system including the economy

household responses to economic and demographic shocks marginal logit analysis using indonesian data abstract we analyse the responses of indonesian households to demographic and economic shocks and examine how these responses vary in relation to the household s permanent income and the extent to which the shock is common across the community households respond in different ways to demographic and economic shocks economic shocks are more likely to result in a labour supply response from the household and this probability is further increased if the shock is common for rural households use of savings increases with permanent income the article also examines the role of the interviewer in influencing survey responses

natural disasters and labor markets abstract while it is clear that natural disasters have serious welfare consequences for affected populations less is known about how local labor markets in low income countries adjust to such large shocks combining data from the indonesia family life survey the desinventar database the u s geological survey and district level employment indicators this paper explores how a large earthquake in indonesia affected labor market outcomes in particular the evolution of wages across sectors i find that the earthquake had a positive effect on wage growth for workers who were employed in the agricultural sector at baseline i propose two mechanisms for this result a higher growth rate of the price of rice and a downward shift in the supply of workers in the agricultural sector i show that evidence mainly supports the latter labor shifted out of the agricultural sector into the construction sector raising the marginal product of labor in agriculture

managing environmental risk in presence of climate change the role of adaptation in the nile basin of ethiopia this study investigates the impact of climate change adaptation on farm households downside risk exposure in the nile basin of ethiopia the analysis relies on a moment based specification of the stochastic production function we use an empirical strategy that accounts for the heterogeneity in the decision on whether to adapt or not and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm we find that past adaptation to climate change i reduces current downside risk exposure and so the risk of crop failure ii would have been more beneficial to the non adapters if they adapted in terms of reduction in downside risk exposure and iii is a successful risk management strategy that makes the adapters more resilient to climatic conditions

the old age security hypothesis reconsidered abstract that the introduction of a means for transferring present to future consumption other than children in a developing country will reduce the rate of population growth is shown to depend crucially on the assumption that parents do not care about the numbers or the welfare of the children they have when parents do care the conclusion no longer unambiguously follows because the new means for providing for parents old age leads to a positive income effect

temperature shocks short term growth and poverty thresholds evidence from rural tanzania using the lsms isa tanzania national panel survey by the world bank we study the relationship between rural household consumption growth and temperature shocks over the period 2008 2013 temperature shocks have a negative and significant impact on household growth only if their initial consumption lies below a critical threshold as such temperature shocks slow income convergence among households agricultural yields and labour productivity are the main transmission channels these findings support the schelling conjecture economic development would allow poor farming households to cope with climate change and closing the yield gap and modernizing agriculture is crucial for adaptation to the negative impacts of global warming

the impact of conditional cash transfers on consumption and investment in nicaragua abstract this article examines the impact of a nicaraguan conditional cash transfer programme on measures of expenditures and productive investment despite clear evidence from a randomised evaluation that the programme increased current expenditures there is little evidence that it increased agricultural or non agricultural investment an estimated marginal propensity to consume out of the transfers of nearly one combined with no effect of cumulative past transfers on current consumption corroborate the direct evidence on investment in contrast to gains made in human capital investment the potential for long term increases in consumption as a result of other forms of increased investment may be limited

off farm labor market decisions and agricultural shocks among rural households in kenya using household level data from rural kenya this article explores whether and how farm households respond to unfavorable agricultural production environments including any ex post adjustments in off farm labor supply in response to unexpected weather shocks while controlling for a wide range of educational demographic and other locational factors we examine how long term weather conditions and specific rainfall shocks influence a household s decision to engage in and their earnings from the off farm labor market we find that rural households engage in off farm work as a long term strategy to deal with the effects of anticipated weather conditions on their farming operations the analysis does not reveal major short term adjustments in off farm engagement as a result of specific unexpected rainfall shocks these households do however rely on remittance income and petty agricultural wage labor under these circumstances holding other factors constant and conditional on participation households in areas with a more productive local agriculture tend to earn more from off farm work especially in the informal business sector than their counterparts in regions with a less productive agriculture as expected a vibrant local economy in the form of public investment increases the probability of off farm participation

imperfect commitment altruism and the family evidence from transfer behavior in low income rural areas in this paper we examine empirically whether risk pooling is more advantageous among altruistic compared to selfish agents in a framework where individuals cannot make binding commitments in particular we incorporate altuism into a model of risk sharing under imperfect commitment and use simulation methods to establish tests of the roles of both altruism and commitment problems in determining the extent of insurance and the intertemporal movements in interhousehold transfers the tests are carried out using three panel data sets from two countries of rural south asia that provide detailed information on transfers and enable the measurement of income shocks the estimates provide strong support for the notion that imperfect commitment substantially constrains informal transfer arrangements whether kin based or not but also provide evidence that altruism plays an important role in ameliorating commitment constraints and thus in increasing the gains from income pooling

effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on consumption in poor countries this paper provides instrumental variables estimates of the response of aggregate private consumption to transitory output shocks in poor countries to identify exogenous unanticipated idiosyncratic and transitory variations in national output we use year to year variations in rainfall as an instrumental variable in a panel of 39 sub saharan african countries during the period 1980 2009 our estimates yield a marginal propensity to consume out of transitory output of around 0 2 to explain this result we show using instrumental variables techniques that there is a significant negative effect of transitory output shocks on net current transfers and a significant positive and quantitatively large effect on the trade balance an important implication is that frictions to private financial flows do not necessarily imply large effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on private consumption in poor countries