how to improve the performance of carbon tax in china abstract the chinese government committed to controlling carbon dioxide co 2 emissions and promoting development of non fossil fuels thus it becomes a top priority for the government to develop effective climate policies against such background this paper develops a new multi country computable general equilibrium cge model with detailed energy disaggregation this study evaluates the impact of single policy instrument carbon tax and combined policy mixes in order to investigate driving factors affecting the policy performance the main findings are as follows firstly the driving factors can be classified into two types the first type of factors affects cost effectiveness significantly while the second type generates considerable effect on emission performance secondly cross border externalities function as important barriers to the co 2 emission reduction since they imply extra competitiveness loss and result in considerable carbon leakage finally this paper considers two integrated policy mixes wherein carbon tax revenue is recycled to reduce capital tax or support clean energy subsidy these policy mixes can improve both cost effectiveness and emission performance and thus perform better than carbon tax alone in this way carbon tax revenue can be used to improve the performance looking ahead complicated policy mixes are preferred to improve the performance of china s carbon tax

the low carbon technology characteristics of china s ferrous metal industry abstract the ferrous metal industry is the largest energy consuming industrial sector in china this paper examines the low carbon production characteristics of this industry during the period 1980 2013 we employ the duality theory of the weighted russell directional distance function to propose a general procedure for modeling production characteristics with carbon emissions being considered the undesirable output using the weighted russell directional distance function model we measure the carbon adjusted technical efficiency and environmental regulatory costs for this industry to investigate policy effects we test the porter hypothesis using the granger causality between regulatory cost and technical efficiency by using the dual model of weighted russell directional distance function we estimate the carbon shadow pricing and inter factor substitution possibilities results show that the carbon adjusted technical efficiency and environmental regulation costs of the chinese ferrous metal industry have significantly increased in recent decades however the latter does not significantly cause the improvement of former the indirect morishima elasticities of substitution reflect that the increase of fixed assets will effectively improve the carbon emissions performance of the chinese ferrous metal industry finally some policy implications are suggested

short term load forecasting based on a semi parametric additive model short term load forecasting is an essential instrument in power system planning operation and control many operating decisions are based on load forecasts such as dispatch scheduling of generating capacity reliability analysis and maintenance planning for the generators overestimation of electricity demand will cause a conservative operation which leads to the start up of too many units or excessive energy purchase thereby supplying an unnecessary level of reserve on the other hand underestimation may result in a risky operation with insufficient preparation of spinning reserve causing the system to operate in a vulnerable region to the disturbance in this paper semi parametric additive models are proposed to estimate the relationships between demand and the driver variables specifically the inputs for these models are calendar variables lagged actual demand observations and historical and forecast temperature traces for one or more sites in the target power system in addition to point forecasts prediction intervals are also estimated using a modified bootstrap method suitable for the complex seasonality seen in electricity demand data the proposed methodology has been used to forecast the half hourly electricity demand for up to seven days ahead for power systems in the australian national electricity market the performance of the methodology is validated via out of sample experiments with real data from the power system as well as through on site implementation by the system operator

forecasting quantiles of day ahead electricity load accurate load forecasting plays a crucial role in the decision making process of many market participants but probably is most important for the dispatch planning of an electricity market operator despite the competitive forecast accuracy achieved by existing point forecast models point forecasts can only provide limited information relating to the expected level of future load to account for the uncertainty of future load and provide a more complete picture of the future load conditions for dispatch planning purposes quantile forecasts can be useful this paper proposes a computationally efficient approach to forecasting the quantiles of electricity load which is then applied to forecasting in the national electricity market of australia the proposed model performs competitively in comparison with one industry standard and two recently proposed quantile forecasting methods one of the main advantages of the proposed approach is the ease with the number of covariates can be expanded this is a particularly important feature in the context of load forecasting where large numbers of important drivers are usually necessary to provide accurate load forecasts

a linguistic group decision making framework for bid evaluation in mega public projects considering carbon dioxide emissions reduction green construction is to conserve the resources and reduce the negative impact of construction activities on the environment to the maximum extent with scientific management and technological progress under the premise of ensuring the quality safety and other basic requirements recent years accompanied by the rapid development of construction industry a considerable proportion of energy and resources particularly high carbon materials is consumed in the construction activities emitting mass greenhouse gases which have a damaging impact on the environment this is especially for the mega public projects therefore under the green and sustainable perspective actions to control carbon dioxide co2 emissions in the construction industry are imperative in this case if co2 emissions reduction can be considered beforehand during the bid evaluation stage contractors will be guided by bid evaluation indicators and therefore improve their construction schemes enabling the construction phase to be green energy saving and sustainable this is because bid evaluation indicators can serve as guiding effect on the contractors given that co2 emissions are rarely given sufficient consideration in traditional bid evaluation this study conducts a systematic analysis to identify major sources of co2 in construction phase and attempts to develop a conceptual computational model in terms of co2 emission then a linguistic group decision making framework for bid evaluation in mega public projects considering co2 emissions reduction is developed in this framework entropy relative entropy the standard deviation method and weighted aggregation operators are applied to determine the indicator weights the expert weights and the information aggregation in bid evaluation decision making finally a scenario comparison between the proposed linguistic group decision making bid evaluation framework and the traditional framework is made through a case study and the scientific basis and reliability of this new framework are validated the establishment of this framework can enrich the decision making methods in construction management field and it can provide meaningful reference for owners to choose the most qualified contractors and spur contractors to improve their construction schemes enabling construction phase to be green energy saving and sustainable

probabilistic forecasts of the magnitude and timing of peak electricity demand adequate capacity planning requires accurate forecasts of the future magnitude and timing of peak electricity demand electricity demand is affected by the day of the week seasonal variations holiday periods feast days and the weather a model that provides probabilistic forecasts of both magnitude and timing for lead times of one year is presented this model is capable of capturing the main sources of variation in demand and uses simulated weather time series including temperature wind speed and luminosity for producing probabilistic forecasts of future peak demand having access to such probabilistic forecasts provides a means of assessing the uncertainty in the forecasts and can lead to improved decision making and better risk management

carbon weighted economic development performance and driving force analysis evidence from china based on a data envelopment analysis framework this study develops an indicator termed as carbon weighted economic development cwed covering the dimensions of energy environment economy and resources to measure the economic development performance in a carbon emission conscious economy as an empirical application the proposed approach is applied to a case study of 30 provinces in china in addition to identify the driving forces underlying low carbon economic development in china we analyze the endogenous interactions and dynamic behaviors between cwed foreign direct investment foreign trade industrial structure local fiscal expenditure and energy consumption structure using a panel vector auto regression model the main findings show that 1 adjusting industrial structure by vigorously developing the service industry and reducing the coal energy share in the primary energy consumption structure are the two most effective approaches to improve cwed in both the short run and long run in return cwed has positive feedback effects on both approaches in the long run 2 increase of the fiscal expenditure has a short term positive effect on cwed 3 fdi has an indirect negative effect on cwed in the long run and foreign trade has an indirect positive effect on cwed in the short term

returns to damage under undesirable congestion and damages to return under desirable congestion measured by dea environmental assessment with multiplier restriction economic and energy planning for social sustainability in china this study discusses the concept of natural and managerial disposability from their economic and methodological implications on social sustainability development then it explores their analytical linkages to a concept on congestion the concept is classified into undesirable congestion uc under natural disposability and desirable congestion dc under managerial disposability considering the two disposability concepts this study compares between returns to damage rtd under uc and damages to return dtr under dc conceptually uc and dc are conceptually different from rtd and dtr although they are closely related to each other group an occurrence of the former measures is identified by a single negative multiplier i e dual variable in contrast the latter measures are associated with multiple negative multipliers and an intercept of a supporting hyperplane on a production and pollution possibility set thus an occurrence of uc and dc is a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition on rtd and dtr respectively in terms of the number of negative multipliers on production factors to document the practicality of the proposed approach this study applies it to chinese economic and environmental assessment for its economic and energy planning for social sustainability development this study identifies four important findings first the chinese government has historically paid attention to the economic prosperity but not paying serious attention on the environmental pollution e g air pollution second there was an increasing trend in improving the two components i e economic and environmental performance measures regarding social sustainability third china s economic and energy policy concerns have been focused upon well developed municipalities e g beijing and shanghai and large provinces therefore it is an important strategy for the government to allocate economic and energy resources to other provinces so that china can reduce the industrial and regional imbalances as a result china can enhance the level of social sustainability finally the municipalities need strict regulation on traffic control in these metropolitan areas and a fuel mix shift from coal combustion to natural gas and renewable energies e g solar water and nuclear generations the fuel mix strategy along with the structure change e g from manufacturing to service and from public to private energy firms will be a major industrial policy issue for china in near future

carbon emission performance evaluation and allocation in chinese cities abstract this paper presents a dea approach with multiple abatement factors to evaluate co2 emission performance and allocate co2 emission quotas in chinese cities we first consider the difference of marginal abatement costs among cities and construct the non radial directional distance function with multiple abatement factors the total factor co2 emission performance index and its dynamic change index are then proposed to measure co2 emission performance considering equity and efficiency we develop a composite index by the hybrid method to allocate emissions quota which considers co2 emissions as well as co2 emission performance then we conduct an empirical study using inputs and outputs dataset of 71 chinese cities in 2005 2012 chinese cities have poor energy efficiency and still have high co2 emissions the eastern region outperforms the central region and the western region performs worst whereas the dynamic co2 emission performance of the central region has the largest increase the change of co2 emission performance is driven mainly by technological advances as for the co2 emission allocation the composite index method encourages cities to reduce emissions and enhance emission performance through carbon trading market it also motivates cities with high historical emissions to reduce their emissions by improving technology when they have poor co2 emission performance

a note on foreign investment the savings function and immiserization of national welfare abstract with the help of a simple two country version of the solow steady state model the present note shows that even without the presence of any visible market distortion free mobility of capital is not necessarily beneficial for the capital importing country under a set of very plausible and empirically relevant assumptions about savings behavior this note shows that while perfect mobility will lead to higher long run capital stock income and consumption for the capital exporting country it leads to exactly the opposite outcome for the capital importing country it brings about lower per capita capital stock income and consumption for the capital importing country

immiserizing investment from abroad the singer prebisch thesis reconsidered the present paper lends new analytical support to the controversial singer prebisch thesis according to this well known thesis less developed countries ldcs suffer a welfare loss from secular decline in their international terms of trade for primary product exports the standard theoretical criticism of the thesis makes two basic arguments both relating to the impact of economic expansion 2 first there is no well established presumption that the terms of trade for primary products will indeed deteriorate in a growing world economy second if domestic economic expansion does happen to worsen the terms of trade for ldcs economic welfare of these countries still need not deteriorate except under bhagwati s 1958 well known conditions for immiserizing growth thus the traditional critique sees the singer prebisch thesis as an unconvincing allegation about the relationship between growth and welfare via the terms of trade the following discussion suggests an alternative more favorable interpretation of the thesis this reinterpretation focuses upon the process of foreign investment4 rather than economic growth as the essential reason for adverse changes in the terms of trade and level of welfare for ldcs exporting primary products such a focus appears to be fully consistent with the analysis of singer 19501 5 whose main

cost based modelling of optimal emission quota allocation abstract given that a fixed national emission reduction target could be achieved by imposing emission quotas among multiple decision making units under administration a novel nonlinear programming approach is proposed in this paper to obtain an optimal emission quota allocation in a least cost way marginal emission abatement cost curves are simulated based on the environmental performance and marginal emission abatement costs measured in a set of parametric directional output distance functions with multi inputs and multi outputs further the proposed model is applied to empirically investigate the optimal carbon emission quota allocation for china s building construction industry among thirty three provinces in three different regions the results indicate that the relatively developed eastern region in china has higher marginal emission abatement cost and can be imposed with more emission quotas while the central and western regions can undertake more emission reduction approximately 74 million rmb can be saved by implementing the optimal emission allocation proposed in this paper as compared to a uniform emission quota allocation the findings are of great theoretical methodological and practical significance for policymakers and social science researchers in terms of climate change mitigation

short term load forecasting methods an evaluation based on european data this paper uses intraday electricity demand data from ten european countries as the basis of an empirical comparison of univariate methods for prediction up to a day ahead a notable feature of the time series is the presence of both an in traweek and an intraday seasonal cycle the forecasting methods considered in the study include arima modeling periodic ar modeling an extension for double seasonality of holt winters exponential smoothing a recently proposed alternative exponential smoothing formulation and a method based on the principal component analysis pca of the daily demand profiles our results show a similar ranking of methods across the 10 load series the results were disappointing for the new alternative exponential smoothing method and for the periodic ar model the arima and pca methods performed well but the method that consistently performed the best was the double seasonal holt winters exponential smoothing method

the choice between international labour and capital mobility in a dynamic model of north south trade abstract in a dynamic model of trade between two regions producing different products and having dissimilar labour market structures the impact of movements of capital and labour is examined it is shown that mobility of either factor of production benefits the full employment solow type economy in contrast an inflow of capital is detrimental to a labour surplus lewis type economy while labour outflow is beneficial

regional energy efficiency carbon emission performance and technology gaps in china a meta frontier non radial directional distance function analysis abstract at present china is the largest primary energy consumer and carbon emitter in the world meantime china is a large transitional economy with significant regional gaps against such backgrounds the calculated results of energy and carbon performance indicators may be biased without considering heterogeneity across regions to this end after incorporating region heterogeneity this paper provides detailed information regarding energy efficiency carbon emission performance and the potential of carbon emission reductions from regional perspectives which may be important and useful for policy makers our main findings are as follows firstly there is significant group heterogeneity across regions in china in terms of energy efficiency and carbon emission performance secondly there are no considerable differences between total factor and single factor performance indices since there is limited substitutability between energy inputs and other production inputs finally significant carbon emission reductions can be made by catching up for regions with low energy efficiency and carbon emission performance looking ahead the chinese government should adopt measures to promote improvements in terms of energy efficiency and carbon emission performance in the short term

an analysis of the implications of china s urbanization policy for economic growth and energy consumption abstract china intends to rely on urbanization policies to increase its economic growth even against the backdrop of new constraints on energy consumption this paper investigates the impact of urbanization on economic growth and energy consumption using data from china s 266 prefecture level cities over the 2000 2010 period and examines the heterogeneity of this impact across income and urbanization groups the main results of our empirical estimation indicate that 1 the effect of urbanization on economic growth is positive and significant for the entire sample although it is positive and significant only for high and middle income groups and not the low income group 2 the impact of urbanization on energy consumption is positive and significant for all groups when the sample is divided into three urbanization groups based on the northam curve indicating that urbanization will lead to large increases in energy consumption in summary our empirical results show that urbanization targets will be difficult to achieve in terms of increasing gdp per capita under energy consumption constraints

energy efficiency evolution of china s paper industry abstract china s paper industry accounts for a larger proportion of the global paper industry and consumes large amounts of energy energy conservation and pollution reduction of the industry have become the focus of china s national development strategy energy efficiency is an important index which directly determines the amounts of energy consumption and pollution emissions to understand the energy efficiency evolution of china s paper industry this paper establishes an input output data of the paper industry for 29 provinces in china and applies dea method and econometric models to estimate and comprehensively discuss the energy efficiency issues based on the framework of total factor efficiency our results indicate that china s paper industry has a large energy saving potential even though its energy efficiency has improved during the period 1990 2013 the saving potential is about 65 under the meta frontier and 44 under the group frontier moreover there are significant differences between different regions in production technology and energy efficiency the performance of eastern china is better than other regions but the technology gaps between the different regions are shrinking and converging over time finally some policy recommendations are proposed to improve the energy efficiency of the industry

north south trade and southern industrialization abstract this paper presents a simple model of international trade and growth between a mature industrial region the north and a semi industrial primary exporting region the south under capital autarky per capita southern industrial output is minimized if the north is at the golden rule point regardless of whether capital is internationally mobile northern transfers to the south will not necessarily raise southern industrial output unless they reach a critical level additional transfers may crowd northern private investment in the south out if this critical level is not attained the effects of changes in saving behavior and technical progress are also studied

decomposition of the environmental inefficiency of the meta frontier with undesirable output abstract in this paper we present an alternative analysis framework to evaluate the effects of technology heterogeneities and undesirable output on environmental efficiency measurement the proposed framework combines the directional distance function and a meta frontier analysis it can be used to measure efficiency improvements brought about by enhanced technical management and technological advances for demonstration purposes we used the framework to measure the environmental efficiency in 90 countries worldwide for the 2003 2007 period the results showed that when the meta technology set is used as the evaluation basis the average environmental efficiency of high competitiveness countries is greater than that of lower middle low and upper middle competitiveness countries the upper middle competitiveness countries perform worse than the lower middle and low competitiveness countries because of the excessive labor force usage and carbon dioxide emissions in these countries we also found that the environmental inefficiency of the meta frontier for high competitiveness countries can be attributed to managerial failure in the production process whereas that for upper middle lower middle and low competitiveness countries can be attributed to technological differences

a review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting abstract electricity consumption data is regarded as nonlinear non stationary series and is often made up by a superposition of several distinct frequencies thus most of the conventional approaches currently employed for the modeling and forecasting involve great complexity and uncertainty recently fluctuation characteristic analysis has increasingly become essential step in the application of electricity demand forecasting yet the implementation of this analysis is an inherently difficult task to obtain reasonable accuracy and stability in the modeling there has been the tendency to accommodate multidimensional attributes of the consumption demands with decomposition based approach in terms of more advanced and hybrid form and the decomposition can be achieved through utilization of two different procedures namely component model based and frequency domain analysis based decomposition consequently a comprehensive review and summarization of decomposition based approach for the prediction is conducted in this paper more specifically the issues of demand forecasting classification the dependency between the electricity demand and external indicators features of various decomposition approach as well as the unique fluctuation characteristic of electricity demand at different time scales are discussed in addition future research directions of the decomposition based prediction approach are outlined

temperature and seasonality influences on spanish electricity load abstract deregulation of the spanish electricity market in 1998 and the possible listing of electricity or weather derivative contracts have encouraged the study of the relationship between electricity demand and weather in spain in this paper a transfer function intervention model is developed for forecasting daily electricity load from cooling and heating degree days the influence of weather and seasonality is proved and is significant even when the autoregressive effects and the dynamic specification of the temperature are taken into account the estimated general model shows a high predictive power the results and information presented in this paper could be of interest for current users and potential traders in the deregulated spanish electricity market

economic growth regional disparities and energy demand in china abstract using the panel data of 27 provinces between 1978 and 2008 we employed a instrumental regression technique to examine the relationship between economic growth energy demand production and the related policies in china the empirical results show that forming a cross province integrated energy market will in general reduce the response of equilibrium user costs of energy products to their local demand and production through cross regional energy transfer including both energy trade and cross regional reallocation in particular reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level are identified as two important policy instruments to enhance the role of energy market integration the findings support the argument for a more competitive cross province energy transfer policies and calls for more developed energy connectivity and associate institutional arrangements within china these policy implications may also be extended to the east asia summit region where energy market integration is being actively promoted

will carbon motivated border tax adjustments function as a threat abstract due to large incremental carbon emissions china might become an important target country of cbta carbon motivated border tax adjustments to levy cbta could reduce china s emissions meanwhile china s emissions reduction could also be achieved by china s climate policies termed as cbta emissions equivalent policies this paper contributes to the discussion on cbta by comparing the potential regional effects of cbta and cbta emissions equivalent policies the main findings are as follows 1 cbta and cbta emissions equivalent policies would result in relocations of outputs across regions and countries affect the structure of economy and contribute to world s emissions reduction 2 there would be significant differences in the regional effects between cbta and cbta emissions equivalent policies 3 compared to carbon tax cbta would be a costly and inefficient policy instrument to reduce emissions but could function as an effective coercion strategy 4 these policies would result in competitiveness issue and rebound effects wherein different countries would be affected differently china is a large economy and energy consumer with high openness to international trade looking ahead the chinese government should consider the potential interactions between china and other economies when designing tax reforms

forecasting next day electricity prices by time series models in the framework of competitive electricity markets power producers and consumers need accurate price forecasting tools price forecasts embody crucial information for producers and consumers when planning bidding strategies in order to maximize their benefits and utilities respectively this paper provides two highly accurate yet efficient price forecasting tools based on time series analysis dynamic regression and transfer function models these techniques are explained and checked against each other results and discussions from real world case studies based on the electricity markets of mainland spain and california are presented

modeling and short term forecasting of new south wales electricity system load this article employs bayesian semiparametric regression methodology to model intraday electricity load data and obtain short term load forecasts the role of such forecasts in the new south wales wholesale electricity market is discussed and the method applied to new south wales system load data the semiparametric regression model used identifies daily periodic weekly periodic and temperature sensitive components of load each component is decomposed as a linear combination of basis functions with a nonzero probability mass that the corresponding coefficients are exactly zero three possible models for the errors are also considered including independent autoregressive and first differenced autoregressive models a moving window of data is used to overcome the slow time varying nature of the temperature and periodic effects the entire model is estimated using a bayesian markov chain monte carlo approach and forecasts are obtained using a monte carlo sample from the joint predictive distribution o

capital mobility and growth in a north south model abstract the paper introduces international equalization of profit rates into a north south model of growth a la findlay 1980 it examines the effects on north south income and employment differentials of the introduction of international capital mobility and given such mobility of shifts in regional technology savings and demand parameters the postulated structural asymmetries between the north and the south are shown to act in such a way as to pervasively bias against the south the functioning of the world economy

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

density forecasting for long term peak electricity demand long term electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in planning for future generation facilities and transmission augmentation in a long term context planners must adopt a probabilistic view of potential peak demand levels therefore density forecasts providing estimates of the full probability distributions of the possible future values of the demand are more helpful than point forecasts and are necessary for utilities to evaluate and hedge the financial risk accrued by demand variability and forecasting uncertainty this paper proposes a new methodology to forecast the density of long term peak electricity demand peak electricity demand in a given season is subject to a range of uncertainties including underlying population growth changing technology economic conditions prevailing weather conditions and the timing of those conditions as well as the general randomness inherent in individual usage it is also subject to some known calendar effects due to the time of day day of week time of year and public holidays a comprehensive forecasting solution is described in this paper first semi parametric additive models are used to estimate the relationships between demand and the driver variables including temperatures calendar effects and some demographic and economic variables then the demand distributions are forecasted by using a mixture of temperature simulation assumed future economic scenarios and residual bootstrapping the temperature simulation is implemented through a new seasonal bootstrapping method with variable blocks the proposed methodology has been used to forecast the probability distribution of annual and weekly peak electricity demand for south australia since 2007 the performance of the methodology is evaluated by comparing the forecast results with the actual demand of the summer 2007 2008

a numerical simulation analysis of hukou labour mobility restrictions in china abstract we use numerical simulation methods to analyze the hukou system of permanent registration in china which many believe has supported growing relative inequality over the last 20 years by restraining labour migration both between the countryside and urban areas and between regions and cities our aim is to inject economic modelling into the debate on sources of inequality in china which thus far has been largely statistical we first use a model with homogeneous labour in which wage inequality across various geographical divides in china is supported solely by quantity based migration restrictions urban rural areas rich poor regions eastern central and western non coastal zones eastern and central western development zones eastern central western zones more disaggregated 6 regional classifications and an all 31 provincial classification we calibrate this model to base case data and when we remove migration restrictions all wage and most income inequality disappears results from this model structure points to a significant role for hukou restrictions in supporting inequality in china we then present a further model extension in which urban house price rises retard rural urban migration the impacts of removing hukou restrictions on migration are smaller but are still significant finally we modify the model to capture labour productivity differences across regions calibrating the modified model to estimates of both national and regional gini coefficients removal of migration barriers is again inequality improving but less so