an econometric model of crowding out of lower education levels abstract unemployment in the netherlands has risen strongly in recent years there are large differences in unemployment rates between education levels according to neo classical theory these differences should be explained by distorted relative prices or by lack of human capital in this paper we test an alternative explanation according to this view the high unemployment rate for lower education levels is caused by excess labour supply highly educated people take the jobs which could be occupied by less educated people to test this view a regression model is developed estimation results indicate that differences in unemployment rates can indeed be explained by excess supply of qualified labour

the housing market impacts of shale gas development using data from pennsylvania and an array of empirical techniques to control for confounding factors we recover hedonic estimates of property value impacts from nearby shale gas development that vary with water source well productivity and visibility results indicate large negative impacts on nearby groundwater dependent homes while piped water dependent homes exhibit smaller positive impacts suggesting benefits from lease payments results have implications for the debate over regulation of shale gas development jel l71 q35 q53 r31 technological improvements in the extraction of oil and natural gas from unconventional sources have transformed communities and landscapes and brought debate and controversy in the policy arena shale gas plays underlying the populated northeastern united states were thought to be uneconomical less than ten years ago but now contribute a major share of us gas supply 1 natural gas has been hailed as a bridge to energy independence and a clean future because of its domestic sourcing and compared with coal and petroleum derivatives its smaller carbon footprint and reduced emissions of other pollutants e g particulates sulfur dioxide car

the structure of unemployment we test for a unit root in postwar unemployment rates for sixteen oecd countries when a one time structural break is incorporated the unit root hypothesis can be rejected for most of the countries and the measured persistence of unemployment falls dramatically we then test for multiple structural changes and find evidence of one or two breaks for those countries for which the unit root hypothesis could be rejected almost all of the breaks are positive reflecting the sustained rise in european unemployment the major exception is the united states where long term unemployment rose in the 1970s and fell in the 1980s

more mortgages lower growth in newly collected data on 46 economies over 1990 2011 we show that financial development since 1990 was mostly due to growth in credit to real estate and other asset markets which has a negative growth coefficient we also distinguish between growth effects of stocks and flows of credit we find positive growth effects for credit flows to nonfinancial business but not for mortgage and other asset market credit flows by accounting for the composition of credit stocks and for the effect of credit flows we explain the insignificant or negative growth effects of financial development in recent times what was true in the 1960s 1970s and 1980s when the field of empirical credit growth studies blossomed is no longer true in the 1990s and 2000s new bank lending is not primarily to nonfinancial business and financial development may no longer be good for growth these trends predate the 2008 crisis they prompt a rethink of the role of banks in the process of economic growth jel e44 o16 o40 c33

do better schools matter parental valuation of elementary education the evaluation of numerous school reforms requires an understanding of the value of better schools given the difficulty of calculating the relationship between school quality and student outcomes i turn to another method and use house prices to infer the value parents place on school quality i look within school districts at houses located on attendance district boundaries houses then differ only by the elementary school the child attends i thereby effectively remove the variation in neighborhoods taxes and school spending i find that parents are willing to pay 2 5 percent more for a 5 percent increase in test scores this finding is robust to a number of sensitivity checks

housing wealth and consumption growth evidence from a large panel of households this article uses a large panel dataset that tracks the housing wealth and credit card spending of 12 793 individuals in hong kong to study the relationship between housing wealth and household consumption i identify a significant effect of housing wealth on consumption a pure wealth effect can explain part of the sensitivity households with multiple houses have much stronger consumption responses consistent with a relaxation of the credit constraints mortgage refinancing significantly increases households consumption sensitivities however for the majority of the households that do not refinance consumption sensitivity appears to be due to a reduction in precautionary saving jel e21 g21

when credit bites back using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle relative to typical recessions financial crisis recessions are costlier and more credit intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions in financial crises or otherwise and slower recoveries we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macro economic controls to study how past credit accumulation impacts key macro economic variables such as output investment lending interest rates and inflation the facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle

same financial development yet different economic growth why we re study the relationship between financial development and real gdp per capita growth in 48 countries what we find is an interesting evidence that only stock market development has positive effects on growth and that banking development has an unfavorable if not negative effect on growth we examine whether or not these impacts are a product of various financial and economic conditional variables our conditional variables consist of financial liberalization two sets of country development dummies crises in banking and currency dummies the creditor protection index as well as the anti director and corruption indices our results clearly show that the conditional variables of financial liberalization high income level and good shareholder protection mitigate the negative impacts of banking development on growth in contrast the conditional variables of middle income level regional latin american sub saharan african and east asian dummies banking and currency crises good creditor protection and higher corruption strengthen the negative impacts of banking development on growth next the conditional variables of middle income level latin american sub saharan african and east asian dummies strengthen the positive impacts of stock market development on growth whereas the conditional variables of financial liberalization mitigate the positive impacts of stock market development on growth last we find that the relationship between growth and bank development is better described as a weak inverse ushape this inverse u shape becomes stronger when additional stock market variables are squared thus financial development and growth may in fact be in a nonlinear form

demographic differences in cyclical employment variation demographic differences in patterns of employment variation over the business cycle are examined in this paper three primary conclusions emerge first both participation and unemployment must be considered in any analysis of cyclical changes in the labor market second young people bear a disproportionate share of cyclical employment variation third failure to consider participation has led to undue pessimism about the effect of aggregate demand policy on high unemployment groups if participation did not surge reduction in overall unemployment to its 1969 level would reduce the unemployment of almost all demographic groups to very low levels

hedonic price indexes for residential housing a survey evaluation and taxonomy every house is different it is important that house price indexes take account of these quality differences hedonic methods which express house prices as a function of a vector of characteristics such as number of bedrooms and bathrooms land area and location are particularly useful for this purpose i consider here some developments in the hedonic methodology as it is applied in a housing context that have occurred in the last three decades a number of hedonic house price indexes are now available however it is often difficult to see how these indexes relate to each other for this reason i attempt to impose some structure on the literature by developing a taxonomy of hedonic indexes and then show how existing indexes fit into this taxonomy also discussed are some promising areas for future research in the hedonic field in particular greater use needs to be made of spatial econometric and nonparametric methods to exploit the increased availability of geospatial data the main criticisms of the hedonic approach are evaluated and compared with those of the repeat sales and stratified median methods the overall conclusion is that the advantages of the hedonic approach outweigh its disadvantages

what have macroeconomists learned about business cycles from the study of seasonal cycles this paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations the fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about nonseasonal fluctuations the authors show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria they also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization in some industries capacity constraints appear to bind copyright 1996 by mit press

does hazardous waste matter evidence from the housing market and the superfund program this paper uses the housing market to develop estimates of the local welfare impacts of superfund sponsored cleanups of hazardous waste sites we show that if consumers value the cleanups then the hedonic model predicts that they will lead to increases in local housing prices and new home construction as well as the migration of individuals that place a high value on environmental quality to the areas near the improved sites we compare housing market outcomes in the areas surrounding the first 400 hazardous waste sites chosen for superfund cleanups to the areas surrounding the 290 sites that narrowly missed qualifying for these cleanups we find that superfund cleanups are associated with economically small and statistically insignificant changes in residential property values property rental rates housing supply total population and types of individuals living near the sites these findings are robust to a series of specification checks including the application of a regression discontinuity design based on knowledge of the selection rule overall the preferred estimates suggest that the local benefits of superfund cleanups are small and appear to be substantially lower than the 43 million mean cost of superfund cleanups

financial dependence global growth opportunities and growth revisited abstract we show that financial development has a non monotonic effect on growth in the rajan and zingales 1998 and fisman and love 2007 sample beyond a threshold financially dependent industries and industries facing good growth opportunities grow disproportionately more slowly

do family wealth shocks affect fertility choices evidence from the housing market abstract this paper uses wealth changes driven by housing market variation to estimate the effect of family resources on fertility decisions using data from the panel study of income dynamics we show that a 100 000 increase in housing wealth among home owners causes a 16 to 18 increase in the probability of having a child there is no evidence of an effect of msa level housing price growth on the fertility of renters however we also present evidence that housing wealth growth increases total fertility and that the responsiveness of fertility to housing wealth has increased over time commensurate with the recent housing boom

the effect of liquid housing wealth on college enrollment this article uses short run housing wealth changes to identify the effect of housing wealth on college attendance i find that households used their housing wealth to finance postsecondary enrollment in the 2000s when housing wealth was most liquid each 10 000 in home equity raises college enrollment by 0 7 of a percentage point on average the effect is localized to lower resource families for whom a 10 000 increase in housing wealth increases enrollment by 5 7 percentage points these estimates imply that the recent housing bust could significantly negatively affect college enrollment through reduction in the housing wealth of families with college age children

the pot rush is legalized marijuana a positive local amenity this paper examines the amenity value of legalized marijuana by analyzing the impact of marijuana legalization on migration to colorado colorado is the pioneering state in this area having legalized medical marijuana in 2000 and recreational marijuana in 2012 we test whether potential migrants to colorado view legalized marijuana as a positive or negative local amenity we use the synthetic control methodology to examine in and out migration to from colorado versus migration to from counterfactual versions of colorado that have not legalized marijuana we find strong evidence that potential migrants view legalized marijuana as a positive amenity with in migration significantly higher in colorado compared with synthetic colorado after the writing of the ogden memo in 2009 that effectively allowed state laws already in place to be activated and additionally after marijuana was legalized in 2013 for recreational use when we employ permutation methods to assess the statistical likelihood of our results given our sample we find that colorado is a clear and significant outlier we find no evidence for changes in out migration from colorado suggesting that marijuana legalization did not change the equilibrium for individuals already living in the state jel i18 r23 k42 c22

financial development investment and economic growth zhenhui xu in this article i use a multivari ate vector autoregressive var approach to examine the effects of permanent financial development on domestic investment and output in 41 countries between 1960 and 1993 the var approach permits the identification of the long term cumulative effects of financial development on the domestic variables by allowing for dynamic interactions among these variables the results reject the hypothesis that financial development simply follows economic growth and has very little effect on it instead there is strong evidence that financial development is important to growth and that investment is an important channel through which financial development affects growth jel e22 e44 e47 016 057 keywords economic growth financial development investment vector auto regression impulse response i introduction interest in the relationship between financial development and economic growth dates back to early this century and has been growing since the 1980s 1 in the literature three views have emerged concerning the potential importance of finance in economic growth the first sees finance as a critical element of growth schumpeter 19113 goldsmith 19691 mckinnon 19733 shaw 1973 fry 1978 1988 bencivenga and smith 1991 king and levine 1993a 1993b in this view services provided by the financial system are essential for growth and a repressed financial system characterized by price distortion undersaving negative or unstable returns on savings and investment and inefficient allocation of savings among competing users impedes growth 2 as the financial system develops households substitute out of unproductive tangible assets raising the total real supply of credit the quantity and quality of investment and thus the rate of economic growth in addition financial development can pro mote technological innovations and productivity growth king and levine 1993a the second view regards finance as a relatively unimportant factor in growth essentially as the handmaiden to industry and commerce robinson 19521 lucas 1988 stern 1989 in this perspective the lack of financial development is simply a manifestation of the lack of demand for financial services as the real sectors of the economy grow the demand for various financial services rises and will thus be met by the financial sector based on this view financial development simply follows economic growth and has very little effect on it like the first one the third view ascribes effects to finance but focuses on its potential negative impacts on growth van wijnbergen 1983 buffie 1984 economists holding this view contend that financial development can hinder growth by reducing available credit to domestic firms this situation arises from the presence of informal curb markets as the formal financial system develops households are seen to substitute out of curb market loans thus reducing the total real supply of domestic credit the reduction in the supply of credit can lead to a credit crunch thereby lowering investment and slowing production and growth further such a credit crunch can retard economic growth beyond the short term by lowering the steady state capital stock wijnbergen 1983 from these divergent views three testable hypotheses emerge with sharply different policy implications the first view suggests that government policies should be directed toward improving the financial system since financial development has important causal effects on growth the second view implies that government policies toward improving the financial system will have little effect on growth since financial development results from growth and has little impact on it based on the third view there is a potential danger of financial development under certain institutional arrangements government efforts toward financial development can cost an economy its long term growth by reducing total real supply of domestic credit

a survey of recent developments in the literature of finance and growth this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of financial development and economic growth the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of financial development in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of finance on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies several key issues unresolved in the literature are highlighted the paper also points to several directions for future research

the role of shocks and institutions in the rise of european unemployment the aggregate evidence two key facts about european unemployment must be explained the rise in unemployment since the 1960s and the heterogeneity of individual country experiences while adverse shocks can potentially explain much of the rise in unemployment there is insufficient heterogeneity in these shocks to explain cross country differences alternatively while explanations focusing on labour market institutions explain current heterogeneity well many of these institutions pre date the rise in unemployment based on a panel of institutions and shocks for 20 oecd nations since 1960 we find that the interaction between shocks and institutions is crucial to explaining both stylised facts

the effect of housing wealth on college choice evidence from the housing boom we use nlsy97 data to examine how home price variation affects the quality of postsecondary schools students attend we find a 10 000 increase in housing wealth increases the likelihood of public flagship university enrollment relative to nonflagship enrollment by 2 0 percent and decreases the relative probability of attending a community college by 1 6 percent these effects are driven by lower income families predominantly by altering student application decisions we also find home price changes affect direct quality measures of institutions students attend furthermore for lower income students each 10 000 increase in home prices leads to a 1 8 percent increase in the likelihood of completing college

financial institutions and markets across countries and over time the updated financial development and structure database this article introduces the updated and expanded version of the financial development and structure database the database includes indicators on the size efficiency and stability of banks nonbank financial institutions and equity and bond markets over 1960 2007 it also contains indicators of financial globalization

credit supply and the price of housing we show that since 1994 branching deregulations in the u s have signi cantly af fected the supply of mortgage credit and ultimately house prices with deregulation the number and volume of originated mortgage loans increase while denial rates fall but the deregulation has no eect on a placebo sample formed of mortgage compa nies that should not be aected by the regulatory change this sharpens the causal interpretation of our results deregulation acts to relax access to mortgage credit and pushes the demand for house ownership outwards interestingly the fraction of securi tized mortgage loans remains unchanged through the process we nd evidence house prices rise with branching deregulation and particularly in metropolitan areas where construction is inelastic for topographic reasons we document these results in a large sample of counties across the u s we also focus on a reduced cross section formed by counties on each side of a state border where a regression discontinuity approach is possible our conclusions are strengthened jel classi cation numbers g21 g10 g12

studying the effects of household and firm credit on the trade balance the composition of funds matters i introduction the implications of higher levels of financial development have been investigated in a large number of studies both in the empirical growth and in the financial crisis literatures 1 a widely used indicator of financial development is the relative importance of loans issued by commercial banks and other financial intermediaries to the entire private sector that is the private credit to gross domestic product gdp ratio following the definition by king and levine 1993a 1993b a higher level of private credit indicates better developed financial markets and easier credit access for businesses and households yet these two types of borrowers vary in terms of the use of credit and might have different effects on macroeconomic performance in this article we study the link between the components of private credit and the trade balance we focus on the distinction between household and corporate sector credit and investigate whether these two types of credit have adverse effects on the trade balance of goods and services this article builds on a theoretical framework by backus kehoe and kydland 1994 who study the dynamics of the trade balance we extend their work by assuming two types of households one being credit constrained due to enforcement problems we then ease the credit constraints on households and firms and study the hypothesized effects by comparative statics analysis more specifically we argue that an increase in household credit raises the demand for consumption goods whereas firm credit growth raises the demand for investment goods while both can have a negative impact on the trade balance the difference is important because borrowing to finance consumption does not add to the productive capacity of an economy and to greater export earnings frankel and rose 1996 firm credit on the other hand has the potential to increase investment by relaxing the credit constraints on firms thus increasing exports and trade balance exploring the decomposition of private credit in emerging countries is relevant for several reasons first the effects of the increased level of household credit in emerging economies are still ambiguous on the one hand better access to credit helps credit constrained households to smooth out their consumption on the other hand it boosts spending and hence decreases savings in an influential paper japelli and pagano 1994 show that liquidity constraints on households raise the saving rates they also find empirical evidence that an increase in household credit decreases saving rates for a sample of organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries yet the effects of household credit in emerging economies have not been explored second if we find that household and firm credit have different impacts on the trade balance of goods and services this underlines the importance of the decomposition of private credit which will also have key implications for the financial development growth link the level of private credit in emerging economies has been rising steadily after the financial liberalization process that took place in early 1990s however higher levels of total private credit do not necessarily imply higher levels of firm credit in fact data for emerging economies show that household credit rather than firm credit has been rapidly increasing in the past decade the higher share of household credit in the total private credit can crowd out investment especially in countries where stock and bond markets are not well developed to finance investment finally a possible negative link between household credit and trade balance has important policy implications for emerging economies as argued by wood 1997 the international monetary fund continues to place most emphasis within its programmes on the stabilisation objective and therefore the core of imf programmes continues to be based upon the restriction of domestic credit creation

the nature of occupational unemployment rates in the united states hysteresis or structural this article provides new evidence on the nature of occupational differences in unemployment dynamics which is relevant for the debate between the structural or hysteresis hypotheses we develop a procedure that permits us to test for the presence of a structural break at unknown date our approach allows the investigation of a broader range of persistence than the 0 1 paradigm about the order of integration usually implemented for testing the hypothesis of hysteresis in occupational unemployment in almost all occupations we find support for both the structuralist and the hysteresis hypotheses but stress the importance of estimating the degree of persistence of seasonal shocks along with the degree of long run persistence on raw data without applying seasonal filters indeed hysteresis appears to be underestimated when data are initially adjusted using traditional seasonal filters

financial development and economic growth abstract this paper examines the empirical relationship between long run growth and financial development proxied by the ratio between bank credit to the private sector and gdp we find that this proxy is positively correlated with growth in a large cross country sample but its impact changes across countries and is negative in a panel data for latin america we argue that the latter findings is the result of financial liberalization in a poor regulatory environment our findings also show that the main channel of transmission from financial development to growth is the efficiency rather than the volume of investment

behind this structural boom the role of asset valuations we are in the midst of a structural boom the force of which has not been seen in this country since the 1920 s after the u s unemployment rate hit 6 percent in late 1994 following its two year recovery many experts assumed that unemployment had regained its naturalrate path the natural unemployment rate in the second half of the 1980 s had been put at around 6 5 percent in several estimates and if the trend reduction in the natural rate brought about by the continuing relative decline of high school dropouts in the labor force and those whose education stopped at the diploma is placed at 0 07 per annum it would have declined on that account to around 6 percent by 1995 phelps and gylfi zoega 1997 furthermore we saw in 1995 the end of

on the power of dickey fuller tests against fractional alternatives abstract we examine the properties of dickey fuller unit root tests under fractionally integrated alternatives and find that these tests have quite low power

a new database on the structure and development of the financial sector this article introduces a new database of indicators of financial structure and financial development across countries and over time the database is unique in that it combines a wide variety of indicators that measure the size activity and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets it improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial institutions and constructing measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets this article introduces a new database the first to provide comprehensive measures of the development structure and performance of the financial sector this database is the first to define and construct indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial intermediaries such as insurance companies pension funds and non deposit money banks it is also the first to include indicators of the size of primary equity markets and primary and secondary bond markets in constructing the database authors carefully deflate measures and match stock and flow variables

unemployment questions and some answers in more or less every country in the oecd unemployment was lower in the decades following the second world war than in any other period of comparable length either before or since for example in britain unemployment has exceeded 5 in every peacetime decade from 1850 onwards except for the 1950s and 1960s alternatively as we can see in table 1 p 779 average unemployment in the 1980s and 90s is higher generally much higher than in the 1960s in every country considered why this is so is one of the questions which underlies this paper a second question which is also illustrated in the unemployment numbers presented in table 1 p 779 concerns the causes of the enormous variation in unemployment rates across the oecd countries as we shall see these are difficult questions the first in particular is one for which we do not have a complete answer by this i do not mean that we do not have theories which are broadly consistent with these numbers in fact we have theories consistent with more or less any numbers what we lack is a satisfactory empirical explanation of the time series pattern of oecd unemployment in what follows we remain focused on these two questions first considering the theoretical background and then looking at some possible answers we finish with some speculative conjectures on the first question

the effect of power plants on local housing values and rents abstract this paper uses restricted census microdata to examine housing values and rents for neighborhoods in the united states where power plants were opened during the 1990s compared to neighborhoods with similar housing and demographic characteristics neighborhoods within 2 miles of plants experienced 3 7 decreases in housing values and rents with some evidence of larger decreases within 1 mile and for large capacity plants in addition there is evidence of taste based sorting with neighborhoods near plants associated with modest but statistically significant decreases in mean household income educational attainment and the proportion owner occupied

wage dynamics reconciling theory and evidence u s macroeconomic evidence shows a negative relation between the rate of change of wages and unemployment in contrast most theories of wage determination imply a negative relation between the level of wages and unemployment in this paper we ask whether one can reconcile the empirical evidence with theoretical wage relations we reach three main conclusions first we derive the condition under which the two can indeed be reconciled we show the constraints that such a condition imposes on the determinants of workers reservation wages as well as the relative importance of workers outside options as opposed to match specific productivity in wage determination second in the light of this condition we reinterpret the presence of an error correction term in macroeconomic wage relations for most european economies but not in the united states third we show that whether this condition holds or not has important implications for the effects of a number of variables from real interest rates to oil prices to payroll taxes on the natural rate of unemployment this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

wage setting and unemployment persistence in europe japan and the usa the persistence of high unemployment in the main european economies is one of the most puzzling economic developments of the past fifteen years average japanese unemployment has risen slightly since the mid seventies whereas unemployment in the united states still exhibits cyclical fluctuations around a gently rising level in marked contrast average unemployment in france germany and the united kingdom rose to a higher plateau during the latter part of the seventies shot up again in the early eighties and has remained persistently high identification of the causes of such unemployment persistence is crucial before one makes policy recommendations three possible causes spring to mind first persistence in the determinants of equilibrium and disequilibrium unemployment second excessive power of insiders in wage setting combined with high correlation between employment status and insider status and finally a high degree of state dependence sluggishness in labour demand although in general one expects all three causes to have played a role in the persistence of high european unemployment there is still a need to identify their relative importance the first set of factors has been assessed empirically in recent papers by among others sachs 1983 bruno and sachs 19x5 bruno 1986 layard and nickel1 1985 bean layard and nickel1 1986 newell and symons 1985 and others many of these papers have also allowed for sluggishness in labour demand although they did not particularly focus on it the second set of factors has been investigated by blanchard and summers 1986 who concluded that there is evidence of much higher correlation between employment status and insider status in the three largest european economies than in the united states

the persistence of unemployment in the usa and europe in terms of fractionally arima models this article examines the persistence of unemployment in the usa and four european countries by means of fractionally integrated arma arfima models in doing so a type of flexibility in modelling low frequency dynamics not achieved by non fractionally arima models can be provided the results indicate that the unemployment series are much more persistent in some countries such as the uk and france than in others including germany or the usa

hysteresis and instability in the natural rate of unemployment in this paper it is pointed out that the long run phillips curve genus contains upward and downward sloping species as well as the vertical species two models are used in one the rate of inflation helps determine the natural rate of unemployment as proposed by friedman in the other the process of moving from one inflation rate to another helps shape the natural rate according to the hysteresis effect proposed by phelps in both cases the resulting models are unstable implying that a vertical long run phillips curve will not be regained if disturbed

estimates of the impact of crime risk on property values from megan s laws abstract we estimate the willingness to pay for reductions in crime risk using the location and move in dates of sex offenders we find significant effects of sex offenders locations that are geographically localized house prices within 0 1 miles of a sex offender fall by 4 percent on average we then use this finding to estimate the costs to victims of sexual offenses and find costs of over 1 million per victim far greater than previous estimates however we cannot reject the alternative hypotheses that individuals overestimate risks posed by offenders or that living near an offender poses significant costs exclusive of crime risk jel k42 r23 r31

on the periodic structure of the business cycle this article tests whether an economic recovery is equally likely to occur in any month of the year i test this hypothesis with a homogeneous markov switching regime model and use the turning point dates for business cycles marked by the national bureau of economic research and romer i tend to find unequal probabilities to switch from recession to expansions in particular the spring and the month of december appear to have higher incidence of economic recovery my results also imply that recessions and expansions are on average longer or shorter depending on what time of the year they start this suggests the presence of a seasonal pattern in business cycle durations though such a notion of seasonality is quite different from the common one based on unobserved component linear time series models i investigate issues that go beyond linear dependence between seasonality and business cycles

what is happening to the impact of financial deepening on economic growth i introduction among the strongest elements of the modern economists canon is that financial sector development has a significant impact on economic growth a generation ago economists like goldsmith 1969 1 and mckinnon 1973 began to draw attention to the benefits of financial structure development and financial liberalization by the early 1990s mckinnon 1991 12 could write with confidence that now however there is widespread agreement that flows of saving and investment should be voluntary and significantly decentralized in an open capital market at close to equilibrium interest rates since the 1990s a burgeoning empirical literature has illustrated the importance of financial sector development for economic growth despite the growing consensus however we find that the link between finance and growth in cross country panel data has weakened considerably over time at the very time that financial sector liberalization spread around the world the influence of financial sector development on economic growth has diminished the seminal empirical work that established the growth finance link is king and levine 1993 which extended the cross country framework introduced in barro 1991 by adding financial variables such as the ratios of liquid liabilities or claims on the private sector to gross domestic product gdp to the standard growth regression they found a robust positive and statistically significant relationship between initial financial conditions and subsequent growth in real per capita incomes for a cross section of about 80 countries in the subsequent decade numerous empirical studies expanded upon this using both cross country and panel data sets for the post 1960 period 2 in this paper we reexamine the core cross country panel result and find that the impact of financial deepening on growth is not as strong with more recent data as it appeared in the original panel studies with data for the period from 1960 to 1989 we consider various explanations for this clear shift first we suggest that financial deepening has a positive effect on growth if not done to excess rapid and excessive deepening as manifested in a credit boom can be problematic even in the most developed markets because it can both weaken the banking system and bring inflationary pressures we test this hypothesis by looking at the finance growth nexus among countries that have or have not experienced financial sector crises we find that once crisis episodes are removed the finance growth relationship remains intact its weakening over time thus seems to be a result of an increased incidence of crises in later years our second and related hypothesis is that the widespread liberalization of financial markets that occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s made financial deepening less effective this is reminiscent of robert lucas s 1975 critique of econometric policy evaluation advanced three decades ago policies that have promoted and or forced increases in financial depth over the past two decades may have altered the basic structural relationship between finance and growth this could occur if the observed benefits of financial deepening led many countries to liberalize before the associated legal and regulatory institutions were sufficiently well developed as a consequence the impact of financial deepening on growth would become smaller our evidence does not indicate that recent liberalizations are responsible for the breakdown of the finance growth link however there may be an indirect link as premature financial development can lead to financial crises that have real effects third we examine the role of global equity markets that have grown in importance and prominence in the years over which the finance growth relationship disappeared however we do not find any evidence to suggest that equity market growth has substituted for the role of credit markets and banks in particular

the business cycle effects of christmas abstract why do countries and industries with large seasonal fluctuations also have large business cycles it is well known that seasonal fluctuations account for the bulk of total output fluctuations yet it is unknown whether seasonal fluctuations can trigger business cycles using a procedure that allows for identification of seasonal innovations i found that seasonal shocks explain 50 of the business cycle in aggregate output such findings provide a novel and powerful explanation for the observed strong correlation between seasonal fluctuations and business cycles the implication is that in addition to trying to determine whether it is monetary technology or other types of shocks that cause business cycles we should be looking at what causes seasonality

oecd unemployment structural breaks and stationarity the paper is concerned with testing the unemployment rate of twenty two oecd countries for stationarity a sequential testing procedure was applied where the break data is endogenized three different models were tested for unit roots it was found that the crash model which allows for a shift in the level of the unemployment rate was most relevant furthermore most breaks were associated with the first oil price shock results suggest that in nine countries the unit root can be rejected in ten countries the null hypothesis cannot be rejected and in three cases the results suggest possible trend stationarity

light cannabis and organized crime evidence from unintended liberalization in italy abstract this paper explores the unintended liberalization of light cannabis that occurred in italy in december 2016 by means of a legislative gap in order to assess its effect on the illegal supply of marijuana although liberalization interested the entire italian territory in the short run the level of intensity varied according to the pre liberalization market configuration of grow shops i e retailers that sold industrial cannabis related products we exploit this variation using a differences in differences did design with a unique dataset on monthly confiscations of drugs at the province level during 2016 2018 which is matched with data on the geographical location of shops and socio demographic variables we find that the liberalization of light cannabis led to a reduction of up to 14 in marijuana confiscations per each pre existing grow shop and a significant decrease in both other cannabis derived drugs and in the number of people arrested for drug related offences back of the envelope calculations suggest that forgone revenue for criminal organizations amount to at least 90 170 million euros per year these results support the argument that the supply of illegal drugs is displaced by the entry of official and legal retailers

cointegration fractional cointegration and exchange rate dynamics multivariate tests due to johansen 1988 1991 as implemented by baillie and bollerslev 1989a and diebold gardeazabal and yilmaz 1994 reveal mixed evidence on whether a group of exchange rates are cointegrated further analysis of the deviations from the cointegrating relationship suggests that it possesses long memory and may possibly be well described as a fractionally integrated process hence the influence of shocks to the equilibrium exchange rates may only vanish at very long horizons in the article by baillie and bollerslev 1989a it is argued that seven different nominal spot and forward exchange rates all contain unit roots in their univariate time series representations at the same time however the spot exchange rates appear to be tied together in the long run through a cointegration type relationship the latter finding of baillie and bollerslev has attracted particular interest and several studies such as those by hakkio and rush 1991 and sephton and larsen 1991 have already addressed this issue using the same data as the baillie and bollerslev article sephton and larsen 1991 describe the evidence for the presence of cointegration as being fragile and note that mixed conclusions are reached by truncating the baillie and bollerslev sample at different points in time diebold gardeazabal and yilmaz 1994 henceforth diebold et al provide interesting evidence that application of the johansen 1988 1991 tests with and without an intercept will result in different inferences on the baillie and bollerslev data set furthermore diebold et al carry out an ex ante forecasting experiment and find that the addition of an error correction term to the martingale model as implied by the standard cointegration paradigm fails to reduce the prediction mean square error when compared to a simple martingale model this therefore leads diebold et al to conclude that there exists substantial uncertainty regarding the existence of cointegration relationships among nominal dollar exchange rates this article provides some additional evidence on the existence of such a long run relationship among the same seven nominal spot exchange rates after further analysis it appears that a form of cointegration does exist between the exchange rates so that they do not drift apart in the long run we argue that this form of cointegration is

regulation and capitalization of environmental amenities evidence from the toxic release inventory in massachusetts environmental regulation in the united states has undergone a slow evolution from command and control strategies towards market based regulations one such innovation is the toxics release inventory tri a regulation that requires polluting e rms to publicly disclose information about their toxic emissions the basic tenet of this regulation is that it corrects for informational asymmetries between polluters and households allowing communities to pressure polluters to decrease their emissions policy makers have judged the tri a tremendous success as national releases declined by 43 between 1988 and 1999 yet many of the fundamental problems which are known to lead to the classic failure of the coase theorem such as high transaction costs and dife culties in organizing cast doubt on the effectiveness of disclosure rules alone to lead to an efe cient outcome in the caseof pollution we use an event study methodology with high quality data on house prices and other local attributes to assess the extent to which the public values changes in toxic releases and thus the success of tri our major e ndings include 1 declines in toxic releases appear unrelated to any political economy variables that might lead to public activism 2 initial information released under tri had no signie cant effect on the distribution of house prices and 3 house prices show no signie cant impact of declines in reportedtoxic releases over time standard errors aresmall enoughthat we can reject the hypothesis that large declines in toxic releases lead to more than a 0 5 increase in house prices these results also hold when we control for differences in the availability of information on tri and the possible effect of expectations our e ndings cast doubt on the ability of the public to process complex information on hazardous emissions and support the coase theorem in that right to know lawssuch as tri may not be the most effective form of environmental regulation

financialisation and the slowdown of accumulation over the past decades financial investment of non financial businesses has been rising and accumulation of capital goods has been declining the first part of the paper offers a novel theory to explain this phenomenon financialization the shareholder revolution and the development of a market for corporate control have shifted power to shareholders and thus changed management priorities leading to a reduction in the desired growth rate in the second part the link between accumulation and financialization is tested econometrically by means of a time series analysis of aggregate business investment for usa uk france and germany extensive test of robustness are performed for the first three countries evidence that confirms the negative effect of financialization on accumulation is found author s abstract

hot and cold seasons in the housing market every year housing markets in the united kingdom and the united states experience systematic above trend increases in prices and transactions during the spring and summer hot season and below trend falls during the autumn and winter cold season house price seasonality poses a challenge to existing housing models we propose a search and matching model with thick market effects in thick markets the quality of matches increases rising buyers willingness to pay and sellers desire to transact a small deterministic driver of seasonality can be amplified and revealed as deterministic seasonality in transactions and prices quantitatively mimicking seasonal fluctuations in uk and us markets

structural breaks and fractional integration in the us output and unemployment rate abstract in this article we examine the presence of structural breaks in the us output and unemployment rate by means of using fractionally integrated techniques the results based on robinson s journal of the american statistical association 89 1994 1420 tests indicate that for unemployment the inclusion of breaks does not affect to the degree of integration of the series while for the gnp we observe a reduction in its order of integration of about 0 25 when a break due to the oil price crisis is taken into account

the effect of legalizing retail marijuana on housing values evidence from colorado does legalizing retail marijuana generate more benefits than costs this paper provides a first step toward addressing that question by measuring the benefits and costs that are capitalized into housing values we exploit the time series and cross sectional variations in the adoption of colorado s municipality retail marijuana laws rmls and examine the effect on housing values with a difference in differences strategy our estimates show that the legalization leads to an average 6 increase in housing values indicating that the capitalized benefits outweigh the costs in addition we find suggestive evidence that this relatively large housing value appreciation is likely due to rmls inducing strong housing demand while having no discernible effect on housing supply finally we show that the effect of rmls is heterogeneous across locations and property types jel k20 r28

rising household debt its causes and macroeconomic implications a long period analysis the article analyses the rise in household indebtedness from the point of view of its causes and long run macroeconomic implications the analysis is focussed on the us case differently from life cycle interpretations of the phenomenon and from interpretations in terms of erratic deviations of current income flows from their long run trend the rising household debt is viewed as the outcome of persistent changes in income distribution and growing income inequalities through household debt low wages appear to have been brought to coexist with relatively high levels of aggregate demand thus providing the solution to the contradiction between the necessity of high and rising consumption levels for the growth of the system s actual output and a framework of antagonistic conditions of distribution which keeps within limits the real income of the vast majority of society the question of the long run sustainability of this substitution of loans for wages is finally discussed copyright the author 2008 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press