asymmetries in price and quantity adjustments by the competitive firm focusing on the crucial role of inventory carry overs in the production and sales decision we describe the profit maximizing behavior of a dynamic competitive firm facing random prices each firm s behavior is incorporated into a stochastic equilibrium model of the competitive industry with uncertain demand the industry model exhibits asymmetric cyclical fluctuations of the keynesian sort when demand is weak output contracts while price holds at a fixed floor when demand is strong price increases as output is constrained by a ceiling even in a pure world of constant returns without increasing costs the inability to instantaneously coordinate production and sales along with the existence of inventories is sufficient to yield a backward i shaped supply curve for the short run journal of economic literature classification numbers 020 021 022

the generalized multinomial logit model accounting for scale and coefficient heterogeneity the mixed or heterogeneous multinomial logit mixl model has become popular in a number of fields especially marketing health economics and industrial organization in most applications of the model the vector of consumer utility weights on product attributes is assumed to have a multivariate normal mvn distribution in the population thus some consumers care more about some attributes than others and the iia property of multinomial logit mnl is avoided i e segments of consumers will tend to switch among the subset of brands that possess their most valued attributes the mixl model is also appealing because it is relatively easy to estimate recently however some researchers have argued that the mvn is a poor choice for modelling taste heterogeneity they argue that much of the heterogeneity in attribute weights is accounted for by a pure scale effect i e across consumers all attribute weights are scaled up or down in tandem this implies that choice behaviour is simply more random for some consumers than others i e holding attribute coefficients fixed the scale of their error term is greater this leads to a scale heterogeneity mnl model s mnl here we develop a generalized multinomial logit model g mnl that nests s mnl and mixl by estimating the s mnl mixl and g mnl models on 10 data sets we provide evidence on their relative performance we find that models that account for scale heterogeneity i e g mnl or s mnl are preferred to mixl by the bayes and consistent akaike information criteria in all 10 data sets accounting for scale heterogeneity enables one to account for extreme consumers who exhibit nearly lexicographic preferences as well as consumers who exhibit very random behaviour in a sense we formalize below

bank integration and state business cycles we investigate how integration of bank ownership across states has affected economic volatility within states in theory bank integration could cause higher or lower volatility depending on whether credit supply or credit demand shocks predominate in fact year to year fluctuations in a state s economic growth fall as its banks become more integrated via holding companies with banks in other states as the bank linkages between any pair of states increase fluctuations in those two states tend to converge we conclude that interstate banking has made state business cycles smaller but more alike i introduction the united states banking system was once anything but united until 1978 every state in the union barred banks from other states so instead of one national banking system we had more like 50 little banking systems one per state 1 once states opened their borders to out of state banks bank holding companies marched in and bought up or merged with banks all over the country in 1975 just 10 percent of the bank assets in the typical state were owned by a multistate bank holding company by 1994 this interstate bank asset ratio had risen to 60 percent figure i our paper investigates how the advent of interstate banking integration in the united states has affected economic volatility within states with the united states balkanized banking system the fate of a state and its banks were closely tied as went the state so went the banks the farm price deflation in the early 1980s bankrupted many farmers and many farm banks falling oil prices in the mid 1980s wiped out a lot of texans and a lot of texas banks shocks to commodity prices probably caused these contractions but frictions in the banking sector may have aggravated them by allowing a freer flow of bank capital and lending among states we maintain that interstate banking will reduce the drag that banking frictions can have on economic contractions

sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities what are the gains from trade title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments caaa established a market for transferable sulfur dioxide so2 emission allowances among electric utilities this market offers firms facing high marginal abatement costs the opportunity to purchase the right to emit so2 from firms with lower costs and this is expected to yield cost savings compared to a command and control approach to environmental regulation this paper uses econometrically estimated marginal abatement cost functions for power plants affected by title iv of the caaa to evaluate the performance of the so2 allowance market specifically we investigate whether the much heralded fall in the cost of abating so2 compared to original estimates can be attributed to allowance trading we demonstrate that for plants that use low sulfur coal to reduce so2 emissions technical change and the fall in prices of low sulfur coal have lowered marginal abatement cost curves by over 50 percent since 1985 the flexibility to take advantage of these chan

assessing management options for weed control with demanders and non demanders in a choice experiment the yellow floating heart is a water weed causing nuisance problems in swedish water courses an economic analysis where various management options are considered is required using a choice experiment we estimate the benefits of a weed management program and perform a cost benefit analysis in order to be able to distinguish between those who have a demand for a program from those who do not we introduce a way to distinguish demanders from non demanders in the choice experiments using a simple cost benefit rule we find that cutting the weed in certain places in the lake can be justified

sports sentiment and stock returns this paper investigates the stock market reaction to sudden changes in investor mood motivated by psychological evidence of a strong link between soccer outcomes and mood we use international soccer results as our primary mood variable we find a significant market decline after soccer losses for example a loss in the world cup elimination stage leads to a next day abnormal stock return of 49 basis points this loss effect is stronger in small stocks and in more important games and is robust to methodological changes we also document a loss effect after international cricket rugby and basketball games this paper employs a novel mood variable international soccer results to investigate the effect of investor sentiment on asset prices using a cross section of 39 countries we find that losses in soccer matches have an economically and statistically significant negative effect on the losing country s stock market for example elimination from a major international soccer tournament is associated with a next day return on the national stock market index that is 38 basis points lower than average we also document a loss effect after international cricket rugby and basketball games on average the effect is smaller in magnitude for these other sports than for soccer but is still economically and statistically significant we find no evidence of a corresponding effect after wins for any of the sports that we study controlling for the pre game expected outcome we are able to reject the hypothesis that the loss effect after soccer games is driven by economic factors such as reduced productivity or lost revenues we

bank risk within and across equilibria abstract the global financial crisis highlighted that the financial system can be most vulnerable when it seems most stable this paper models non linear dynamics in banking small shocks can lead from an equilibrium with few bank defaults straight to a full freeze the mechanism is based on amplification between adverse selection on banks funding market and moral hazard in bank monitoring our results imply trade offs between regulators microprudential desire to shield individual weak banks and the macroprudential consequences of doing so moreover limiting bank reliance on wholesale funding always reduces systemic risk but limiting the correlation between bank portfolios does not

contracts delivery lags and currency risks abstract this paper presents a competitive model in which exchange rate uncertainty has real effects on how trade contracts are written and executed in this model exporting firms have an incentive to delay delivery on trade contracts whenever they can sell their products on the domestic market for a higher price than the domestic currency value of the price specified by the trade contracts in general it is costly for a firm to offer a credible commitment to the promised delivery date of a trade contract we demonstrate that under certain conditions a firm can costlessly commit to a policy of no delivery lags by the appropriate choice of the currency of denomination of trade contracts

substitution effects in cvm values there is increasing recognition that statistical estimates of the average willingness to pay for environmental programs may be biased by the failure of respondents or of the statistical methodology to consider the effect of substitute programs and goods we design and implement a cvm survey that estimates the impact of substitution effects on the willingness to pay for an environmental program we find a statistically significant impact and suggest that the set of potential substitutes is very large

spatial boundaries and choice set definition in a random utility model of recreation demand we are concerned with the definition of choice set used in random utility models of recreation demand in particular we are concerned with the spatial boundaries used to define choice sets in this paper using a model of day trip fishing in maine we examine the sensitivity of parameter and welfare estimates to changes in the spatial boundary we find that there exists some threshold distance beyond which adding more sites to the choice set has negligible effects on the estimation results

vertically summing public good demand curves an empirical comparison of economic versus political jurisdictions fiscal equivalence for efficient provision of a public good requires perfect correspondence between political and economic jurisdictions however the spatial extent of the economic jurisdiction is an empirical question drawing on four survey based valuation studies we measure the relative public good benefit gradient as a function of residential location from six natural resource public goods the results indicate commonly used state political jurisdictions reflect an average of 13 of total benefits in the economic jurisdiction although with a logarithmic form for distance the upper confidence interval of state benefits can include 100 for some species

estimation of distance decay functions to account for substitution and spatial heterogeneity in stated preference research in a site selection choice experiment various hypotheses are tested related to spatial heterogeneity in willingness to pay wtp for environmental improvements spatial heterogeneity is measured through distance decay effects substitute sites inside and outside the experiment s choice set and spatial trend variables we demonstrate that distance decay functions differ between users and nonusers and across study sites also the distance to substitutes outside the choice set explains spatial variation in wtp we show that further extending the model with spatial trend variables reveals additional spatial heterogeneity in choices accounting for spatial heterogeneity patterns results in significantly different wtp estimates for environmental improvements jel q25 q51

targeted export promotion with several oligopolistic industries abstract we study export promotion policies in situations where several oligopolistic industries compete for the services of a sector specific factor of production the partial equilibrium argument for strategic subsidies must be modified to incorporate general equilibrium effects working through the factor market we find that these effects generally weaken the case for profit shifting subsidies in a benchmark case with symmetric exporting industries fixed coefficients technologies and an inelastic supply of the specific factor free trade is shown to be optimal

reliability of individual valuations of public and private goods choice consistency response time and preference refinement we examined the reliability of a large set of paired comparison value judgments involving public goods private goods and sums of money as respondents progressed through a random sequence of paired choices they were each given their response time decreased and they became more consistent apparently fine tuning their responses suggesting that respondents tend to begin a hypothetical value exercise with relatively imprecise preferences and that experience in expressing preference helps reduce that imprecision reliability was greater for private than for public good choices and greater for choices between a good and a monetary amount than for choices between two goods however the reliability for public good choices was only slightly lower than for the private goods published by elsevier b v

offshore assembly provisions and the structure of protection abstract this paper derives the structure of protection afforded by tariffs that are subject to an offshore assembly provision oap the effects of an oap on the equilibrium price relationships are shown to depend on two sets of factors the amount of domestic consumption of the final good in relation to the level of output of the domestic component and assembly industries and the height of barriers to trade in the intermediate good compared to the tariff savings afforded by oap exemption of domestic value added an interesting result is that equilibrium under an oap scheme may entail two way trade in identical intermediate goods

substitution effects in the valuation of multiple environmental programs abstract a theoretical framework for understanding substitution and complementary effects between environmental programs is derived a multiple program valuation function is specified and its structure analyzed a maximum likelihood estimator is derived to estimate the parameters of the valuation function using referendum type contingent valuation data the empirical analysis shows that the conventional benefit aggregation approach of independent valuation and summation overstates the benefits of two and three program policies by an average of 24 and 54 respectively

effect of distance on the preservation value of water quality in the past dozen years an extensive body of literature has developed on the willingness to pay for water quality in particular its recreation use and nonuse preservation values this paper illustrates a procedure for estimating the effect of distance on the preservation value of environmental quality using the contingent valuation approach the case considered is the potential degradation of water quality due to coal mining activity in the flathead river drainage system montana the analysis supports a negative association for this particular study area the effect of distance on preservation value was considered both directly and indirectly through its effect on visits 36 references 2 tables

the value of familiarity effects of knowledge and objective signals on willingness to pay for a public good we design and conduct a field experiment in which treated subjects receive a precise and objective signal regarding their knowledge about a public good before estimating their wtp for it we find that the causal effect of objective signals about the accuracy of a subject s knowledge for a public good can dramatically affect their valuation for it treatment caused a significant increase of 85 129 in wtp for well informed individuals we find no such effect for less informed subjects our results imply that wtp estimates for public goods are not only a function of true information states of the respondents but beliefs about those information states

the aggregation of environmental benefit values welfare measures distance decay and total wtp abstract we review the literature regarding the aggregation of benefit value estimates for non market goods two case studies are presented through which we develop an approach to aggregation which applies the spatial analytic capabilities of a geographical information system to combine geo referenced physical census and survey data to estimate a spatially sensitive valuation function these case studies show that the common reliance upon political rather than economic jurisdictions and the use of sample mean values within the aggregation process are liable to lead to significant errors in resultant values we also highlight the fact that for resources with use values then we should expect overall values to reduce with increasing distance from such sites but that changes in the choice of welfare measure will determine whether such distance decay is to be expected within values stated by those who are presently non users the paper concludes by providing recommendations for future improvements to the methodology

the effect of distance on willingness to pay values a case study of wetlands and salmon in california most contingent valuation studies in the literature utilized a pre determined geographic market area for their sample frame in other words they did not include variables that would measure the extent of the geographic areas over which to aggregate willingness to pay these studies implicitly assumed that the effects of geographic distance were moot an assumption that could have led to an understatement of the aggregate benefit values computed in these studies the overall goal of this study was to determine if distance affects willingness to pay for public goods with large non use values the data used came from a contingent valuation study regarding the san joaquin valley ca respondents were asked about their willingness to pay wtp for three proposed programs designed to reduce various environmental problems in the valley a logit model was used to examine the effects of geographic distance on respondents willingness to pay for each of the three programs results indicate that distance affected wtp for two of the three programs wetlands habitat and wildlife and the wildlife contamination control programs we calculate the underestimate in benefits if the geographic extent of the public good market is arbitrarily limited to one political jurisdiction

uncertain liquidity and interbank contracting we study a version of the diamond and dybvig journal of political economy 1983 91 401 419 model where banks would like to obtain insurance against shocks on returns on liquid assets through an interbank borrowing and lending program we show that if investments in liquid assets and their realized returns are private information to individual banks the first best allocation is not incentive compatible we then characterize the second best interbank contract

happiness and productivity some firms say they care about the well being and happiness of their employees but are such claims hype or scientific good sense we provide evidence for a classic piece rate setting that happ

complements substitutes budget constraints and valuation this study employs a multi program contingent valuation cvm design tosimultaneously assess the value of three ecosystem conservation programsin alberta canada the design is different from most other cvm designsand has several different features including the natural incorporation ofdirect reminders of substitute complementary programs and budgetconstraints in contrast to the findings of other studies two of the environmentalprograms appear to be complements and other combinations of the programssuggest an absence of substitution effects the multi program model ismore informative and robust in terms of theoretical validity and expectedrelationships with demographic and recreational characteristics of therespondents

directional heterogeneity in distance profiles in hedonic property value models abstract in environmental economics hedonic property value hpv models have often employed distance from a localized environmental disamenity as a proxy for perceived risk the magnitude of a distance effect on housing prices however may depend upon the direction in which it is being measured we generalize conventional distance models to allow for continuously varying directional effects by converting from cartesian to polar coordinates a simple empirical example for housing prices around woburn massachusetts between 1988 and 1996 illustrates how failure to allow for directional heterogeneity can obscure otherwise statistically significant distance effects in hpv

global growth opportunities and market integration we propose an exogenous measure of a country s growth opportunities by interacting the country s local industry mix with global price to earnings pe ratios we find that these exogenous growth opportunities predict future changes in real gdp and investment in a large panel of countries this relation is strongest in countries that have liberalized their capital accounts equity markets and banking systems we also find that financial development external finance dependence and investor protection measures are much less important in aligning growth opportunities with growth than is capital market openness finally we formulate new tests of market integration and segmentation by linking local and global pe ratios to relative economic growth in a perfectly integrated world economy capital should be invested where it

a note on the welfare effects of omitting substitute prices and qualities from travel cost models the bias to welfare estimates from omitting substitute prices or qualities in travel cost models is examined the presence of bias depends on whether single or multiple site changes are examined and the degree of correlation between the omitted and included prices for a multiple site price or quality change even when omitted price is uncorrelated with included price welfare estimates may be biased alternatively if omitted price is perfectly correlated the welfare measure may not be biased the presence of the bias depends equally on both the degree of correlation and whether a single or multiple change occurs this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

how large is the extent of the market for public goods evidence from a nationwide contingent valuation survey to assess the extent of the geographic area over which to sum vertically the public good benefits of removing two dams and restoring salmon populations households were surveyed throughout the us households were asked a dichotomouschoice contingent valuation question regarding their willingness to pay higher federal taxes for ten years to remove the dams and restore salmon populations while the distance from the site of the dam removal is statistically significant and negative in the logit willingness to pay equation benefits per household fall off slowly and the extent of the market is nationwide with a majority of households living outside the immediate area of the dam the rest of the us households reflect 97 of the national benefits for dam removal and salmon restoration this example suggests that failure to account for the national public good market can result in a serious underestimate of the value of public goods

us mexico employment effects of repealing the us offshore assembly provision the oaps are contributing to the actual displacement and impending displacement in the next few years of scores of thousands of unskilled and semi skilled factory production workers who are in the economy mainstream nathaniel goldfinger afl cio 1970 we believe that the only benefits derived from the existence of the oap are reached by transnational enterprises through increases in profits this however cannot offset the harm done to the thousands of american s whose livelihoods have been sacrificed in the pursuit of those profits mark anderson afl cio 1987 what my well intentioned but misinformed colleagues fail to realise is that without provisions like the oap products assembled in mexico would be 100 per cent made in asia the loss therefore would equal not only the jobs used in the assembly process in mexico but those used to manufacture the components produced here in the united states hon jim kolbe 1987 the employment effects of the offshore assembly provision oap are h

non market valuation in integrated assessment modeling the benefits of water right retirement abstract the impact of resource management on natural capital value depends on processes that affect resource stocks over space and time we develop an integrated assessment modeling framework that links econometric estimates of non market benefits from a resource stock to a spatially explicit model of resource dynamics results from a dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey are used to estimate a marginal willingness to pay function for groundwater which has no market we use the model to measure the economic benefits to agricultural producers of a program that pays for water right retirement under the baseline scenario without water right retirement the benefits from groundwater stocks in the study region decline in value by 3 6 million over 15 years because of groundwater depletion water right retirement leads to groundwater benefits that are 0 55 million higher than in the baseline after 15 years but benefits vary greatly over space comparing this to an explicit program cost of 45 million suggests that other social benefits from groundwater stocks must exist to justify the program from a benefit cost perspective valuing the economic benefits from increasing natural capital stocks can inform policy and provide insight into the value of management in resource and environmental systems

good day sunshine stock returns and the weather psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood this paper examines the relationship between morning sunshine in the city of a country s leading stock exchange and daily market index returns across 26 countries from 1982 to 1997 sunshine is strongly significantly correlated with stock returns after controlling for sunshine rain and snow are unrelated to returns substantial use of weather based strategies was optimal for a trader with very low transactions costs however because these strategies involve frequent trades fairly modest costs eliminate the gains these findings are difficult to reconcile with fully rational price setting

creditor concentration an empirical investigation most of the literature on multiple banking assumes equal financing shares however unequal asymmetric or concentrated bank borrowing is widespread and creditor concentration is only weakly correlated with the number of bank relationships this paper therefore investigates the determinants of creditor concentration for german firms using a comprehensive firm bank level dataset for the time period between 1993 and 2003 we document that corporate borrowing from banks is very often concentrated even for the largest firms in our sample leveraged firms and firms with more redeployable assets concentrate their borrowing from banks as are firms dealing with a relationship lender that is profitable that has lower monitoring costs or that operates in a concentrated regional lending market

tariffs and growth in the late 19th century the paper estimates the correlation between tariffs and economic growth in the late 19th century in the context of three types of growth equation unconditional convergence equations conditional convergence equations and factor accumulation models it does so for a panel of ten countries between 1875 and 1914 tariffs were positively correlated with growth in these countries during this period economic theory is ambiguous as regards the relationship between trade policy and growth the growth literature of the past decade has produced an impressive array of models in which protection can either increase or reduce long run growth rates grossman and helpman 1991 rivera batiz and romer 1991 stokey 1991 young 1991 such theoretical ambiguity invites empirical research while new growth theory is ambiguous on the subject the new empirical growth literature has produced a consensus that free trade is positively associated with growth based on evidence from the late 20th century but see rodrlguez and rodrik 1999 for a sceptical review of the literature the clear

financial globalization and real regionalization over the period 1972 1986 the correlations of gdp employment and investment between the united states and an aggregate of europe canada and japan were respectively 0 76 0 66 and 0 63 for the period 1986 to 2000 the same correlations were much lower 0 26 0 03 and 0 07 real regionalization at the same time u s international asset trade has significantly increased for example between 1972 and 1999 united states gross fdi and equity assets in the same group of countries rose from 4 to 23 percent of the u s capital stock financial globalization we argue that these two trends are intimately related we document that the correlation of real shocks between the u s and the rest of the world has declined we then present a model in which international financial market integration occurs endogenously in response to less correlated shocks financial integration further reduces the international correlations in gdp and factor supplies we find that both less correlated shocks and endogenous financial market development are needed to account for all the changes in the international business cycle

acceptance of wind power development and exposure not in anybody s backyard abstract despite a large stated preference sp literature on wind power externalities few sp studies employ a case control approach to examine whether people s acceptance of new wind power developments and renewable energy initiatives increases or decreases with exposure furthermore the existing studies are inconclusive on this issue in a case control discrete choice experiment we measure the level of acceptance in terms of people s willingness to accept wta for having future land based wind power developments in norway comparing exposed and non exposed people s wta we find that exposure lowers acceptance furthermore exposed people are also unwilling to pay as much to increase general domestic renewable energy production from all sources as non exposed people and thus have lower acceptance for such renewable energy policy initiatives after testing for type of exposure we argue that the inconclusiveness in the literature of how exposure affects acceptance of wind power developments could be due to the fact that impacts considered differ somewhat across studies

protection for maturing industries evidence from canadian trade patterns and trade policy 1870 1913 as industries mature experience is accumulated productivity increases trade performance improves on domestic and international markets and learning potential dissipates using theory consistent empirical specifications i find a strong robust negative relationship linking tariff rates to trade performance for manufactured products that matured during the first decade after canada prioritized protectionist policy objectives in 1879 this relationship also holds at a more aggregate industry level where i can use other measures of maturity control for import penetration use historically contemporaneous trade elasticity estimates link trade performance to trade restrictiveness and effective rates of protection and where i can instrument for import penetration and trade performance using a two stage iv gmm estimation approach the results suggest that after 1890 the canadian government carefully cut tariffs on products produced by maturing canadian producers and this retreat from protectionism significantly lowered the static deadweight losses resulting from canadian trade policy during the post 1890 period protection des industries en phase de maturite illustration par les modeles commerciaux et les politiques commerciales du canada entre 1870 et 1913 a mesure que les industries gagnent en maturite l experience s accumule la productivite croit les performances commerciales s ameliorent sur les marches nationaux et internationaux et le potentiel d apprentissage se dissipe a l aide de modeles empiriques conformes a cette theorie j ai degage une relation negative robuste entre les droits tarifaires et les performances commerciales pour les produits manufactures arrives a maturite au cours de la premiere decennie suivant la decision du canada de prioriser les objectifs de politique protectionniste en 1879 cette correlation est egalement valable a un niveau industriel plus general dans le cadre duquel il est possible d utiliser d autres mesures d evaluation de la maturite de controler la penetration des importations d utiliser des estimations historiquement contemporaines relatives a l elasticite des echanges de correler les performances commerciales aux restrictions des echanges et aux taux de protection effectifs et ou il est egalement possible de mesurer la penetration des importations et les performances commerciales gr ce a une approche estimative en deux etapes iv gmm les resultats suggerent qu apres 1890 le gouvernement canadien a pris soin de diminuer les droits tarifaires sur les produits fabriques par des entreprises canadiennes en phase de maturite et que ce renoncement au protectionnisme diminua significativement les pertes de poids mort statiques resultant des politiques commerciales du canada posterieures a 1890

the effect of consumers real world choice sets on inferences from stated preference surveys for stated preference sp studies we develop a model that assesses the influence of choice set misspecification arising from the omission of perceived substitutes among real world alternatives in the same class of goods this problem is most likely to be present when individuals are allowed to select a no purchase option instead of being forced to choose from an explicit set of sp alternatives with hypothetical attribute levels a convenient feature of our model is that researchers do not need to know exactly which omitted real substitute the individual most prefers only the set of real substitutes that exists in our empirical illustration a comparison of rival models suggests researchers who overlook the presence of perceived real alternatives related to an sp experiment can end up with noticeably biased welfare estimates our more general model suggests that it may be prudent for future sp researchers to anticipate then test and possibly correct for distortions in utility parameter estimates that result from this problem

growth volatility and financial liberalization we examine the effects of both equity market liberalization and capital account openness on real consumption growth variability we show that financial liberalization is mostly associated with lower consumption growth volatility our results are robust surviving controls for business cycle effects economic and financial development the quality of institutions and other variables countries that have more open capital accounts experience a greater reduction in consumption growth volatility after equity market openings we also find that financial liberalizations are associated with declines in the ratio of consumption growth volatility to gdp growth volatility suggesting improved risk sharing our results are weaker for liberalizing emerging markets but we never observe a significant increase in real volatility moreover we demonstrate significant differences in the volatility response depending on the size of the banking and government sectors and certain institutional factors

sequencing and valuing public goods abstract this paper establishes several propositions concerning the importance of context in valuing public goods it first provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the value of a public good to be independent of context utility constant valuation sequences are considered where public goods are systematically made available or taken away for the case of strict hicksian substitutes willingness to pay for an increase in one of the public goods is strictly decreasing the farther out in a sequence it is valued for the destruction of public goods the reverse is true for willingness to accept compensation sequencing has opposite implications for the assessment of the benefits of providing public goods than for the assessment of the damage from destroying them

currency crises capital account liberalization and selection bias are countries with unregulated capital flows more vulnerable to currency crises efforts to answer this question properly must control for self selection bias since countries with liberalized capital accounts may also have more sound economic policies and institutions that make them less likely to experience crises we employ a matching and propensity score methodology to address this issue in a panel analysis of developing countries our results suggest that after controlling for sample selection bias countries with liberalized capital accounts experience a lower likelihood of currency crises that is when two countries have the same likelihood of allowing free movement of capital based on historical evidence and a very similar set of economic and political characteristics and one country imposes controls and the other does not the country without controls has a lower likelihood of experiencing a currency crisis this result is at odds with the conventional wisdom and suggests that the benefits of capital market liberalization for external stability are substantial

financial fragility liquidity and asset prices we define a financial system to be fragile if small shocks have disproportionately large effects in a model of financial intermediation we show that small shocks to the demand for liquidity cause either high asset price volatility or bank defaults or both furthermore as the liquidity shocks become vanishingly small the asset price volatility is bounded away from zero in the limit economy with no shocks there are many equilibria however the only equilibria that are robust to the introduction of small liquidity shocks are those with non trivial sunspot activity

winter blues a sad stock market cycle and god said let there be light and there was light and god saw that the light was good genesis 1 3 depression has been linked with seasonal affective disorder sad a condition that affects many people during the seasons of relatively fewer hours of daylight experimental research in psychology has documented a clear link between depression and lowered risktaking behavior in a wide range of settings including those of a financial nature through the links between sad and depression and between depression and risk aversion seasonal variation in length of day can translate into seasonal variation in equity returns based on supportive evidence from psychology which suggests sad is linked closely with hours of daylight we consider stock market index data from countries at various latitudes and on both sides of the equator we model differences in the seasonal variation of daylight across coun

the narrow moving band the dutch disease and the competitive consequences of mrs thatcher notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies abstract this paper presents a model of trade in which comparative advantage instead of being determined by underlying attributes of countries evolves over time through learning by doing in this model arbitrary patterns of specialization once established tend to become entrenched over time the model sheds light on three widely held views that do not make sense in more conventional models first is the view that temporary protection of selected sectors can permanently alter the pattern of comparative advantage in the protecting country s favor second is the view that seemingly favorable developments such as the discovery of exportable natural resources may lead to a permanent loss of other sectors and reduce welfare in the long run third is the possibility that a temporary overvaluation of a currency due to tight money can lead to a permanent loss of competitiveness in some sectors

substitution effects and spatial preference heterogeneity in single and multiple site choice experiments a novel discrete choice experiment dce design allows testing of substitution effects based on the framing of and distances to substitute sites the same ecosystem services and biodiversity provided at different sites are valued independently in single site dces and simultaneously in a multiple site dce using an identical experimental design site specific utility functions are estimated with and without controlling for spatial preference heterogeneity framing choices as alternative projects at single or multiple sites significantly influences substitutability between sites choice behavior and welfare estimates distance decay displays significant heterogeneity in different directions from the valued sites and between urban and rural areas

accounting for price changes american steel rails 1879 1910 a framework is developed for decomposing product price changes into changes in input prices technical efficiency and deviations of price from unit cost this framework facilitates the measurement of productivity growth in noncompetitive industries the history of american steel rail prices between 1879 and 1910 is analyzed and it is concluded in contrast with much recent work that productivity growth remained rapid until the twentieth century and that the steel industry was sufficiently collusive so that the rail producers received the benefits of that productivity growth as excess profits

contingent valuation controversies and evidence contingent valuation cv has become one of the most widely used non market valuation techniques cv s prominence is due to its flexibility and ability to estimate total value including passive use value its use and the inclusion of passive use value in benefit cost analyses and environ mental litigation are the subject of a contentious debate this paper discusses key areas of the debate over cv and the validity of passive use value we conclude that many of the alleged problems with cv can be resolved by careful study design and implementation we further conclude that claims that empirical cv findings are theoretically inconsistent are not generally supported by the literature the debate over cv however has clarified several key issues related to nonmarket valuation and can provide useful guidance both to cv practitioners and the users of cv results

directional heterogeneity of environmental disamenities the impact of crematory operations on adjacent residential values a hedonic study of residential house sales in rawlins wyoming was conducted to estimate the impact of an environmental shock from a new point source upon adjacent residential property values we use a unique data base of house sale prices and associated house attributes including structural and neighbourhood characteristics and geographic distances and directions from the source of the shock atmospheric emissions from a new crematory our data spans 27 months of house sales 7 months before and 20 months after the startup of crematory operations results indicate that proximity measured both in terms of direction and distance from the crematory imparts a statistically significant negative impact on average house sale prices an increase of 0 3 to 3 6 of average sale price for every one tenth mile increase up to one half mile in distance away from the crematory but depending on direction from the crematory this distance benefit increases somewhat with calendar time only for houses located west of

learning by doing export subsidies and industry growth japanese steel in the 1950s and 1960s abstract the paper examines the japanese steel industry to evaluate the role of export subsidy policies export subsidies can be instrumental in increasing an industry s cost competitiveness in the presence of learning by doing a characteristic of production in the steel industry using a dynamic estimation model this paper identifies a significant learning rate of above 20 with little intra industry knowledge spillover simulations made with the model indicate that the subsidy policy had an insignificant impact on industry growth the paper finds that the export subsidy had a small effect in stimulating industry growth because the estimated steel supply function was relatively inelastic

measuring european financial integration in this paper we present a set of specific measures to quantify the state and evolution of financial integration in the euro area five key markets are considered namely the money corporate bond government bond credit and equity markets building upon the law of one price we have developed two types of indicators that can be broadly categorized as price based and news based measures we have complemented these measures by a number of quantity based indicators mainly related to the evolution of the home bias results indicate that the unsecured money market is fully integrated while integration is reasonably high in the government and corporate bond markets as well as in the equity markets the credit market is among the least integrated especially in the short term segment

the effects of experience on preferences theory and empirics for environmental public goods this article develops a choice model for environmental public goods which allows for consumers to learn about their preferences through consumption experiences we develop a theoretical model of bayesian updating perform comparative statics over the model and show how the theoretical model can be consistently incorporated into a reduced form econometric model our main findings are that in a random utility model rum discrete choice model a subject s scale should increase and the variability of scale should decrease with experience if subjects are bayesians we then estimate the model using field data regarding preferences for one particular public good water quality we find strong evidence that additional experience increases scale thereby making consumer preferences more predictable from the econometrician s perspective we find supportive but less convincing evidence that experience decreases the variability of scale across subjects

accounting for choice set endogeneity in random utility models of recreation demand abstract modeling the choice among a discrete set of recreation alternatives is driven by the possible patterns of substitution among sites researchers typically assume that the individual s choice set is the same as the set of alternatives included in the recreation survey instrument our endogenous choice set model is a generalization of the standard multinomial logit random utility model which allows for the possibility of heterogeneous choice sets that are endogenously determined in the model using two examples we show that parameter and compensating variation estimates differ greatly between the endogenous choice set model and the traditional logit model

financial integration specialization and systemic risk this paper studies the implications of cross border financial integration for financial stability when banks loan portfolios adjust endogenously banks can be subject to sectoral and aggregate domestic shocks after integration they can share these risks in a complete interbank market when banks have a comparative advantage in providing credit to certain industries financial integration may induce banks to specialize in lending an enhanced concentration in lending does not necessarily increase risk because a well functioning interbank market allows to achieve the necessary diversification this greater need for risk sharing though increases the risk of cross border contagion and the likelihood of widespread banking crises however even though integration increases the risk of contagion it improves welfare if it permits banks to realize specialization benefits

when and how should infant industries be protected abstract this paper develops and analyzes a welfare maximizing model of infant industry protection the domestic infant industry is competitive and experiences dynamic learning effects that are external to firms the competitive foreign industry is mature and produces a good that is an imperfect substitute for the domestic good a government planner can protect the infant industry using domestic production subsidies tariffs or quotas in order to maximize domestic welfare over time as protection is not always optimal although the domestic industry experiences a learning externality the paper shows how the decision to protect the industry should depend on the industry s learning potential the shape of the learning curve and the degree of substitutability between domestic and foreign goods assuming some reasonable restrictions on the flexibility over time of the policy instruments the paper subsequently compares the effectiveness of the different instruments given such restrictions the paper shows that quotas induce higher welfare levels than tariffs in some cases the dominance of the quota is so pronounced that it compensates for any amount of government revenue loss related to the administration of the quota including the case of a voluntary export restraint where no revenue is collected in similar cases the quota may even be preferred to a domestic production subsidy

the state of the art of environmental valuation with discrete choice experiments abstract this paper provides with a review of the state of the art of environmental valuation with discrete choice experiments dces the growing body of literature on this field serves to emphasize the increasing role that dces are playing in environmental decision making in the last decade the paper attempts to cover the full process of undertaking a choice experiment including survey and experimental design econometric analysis of choice data and welfare analysis the research on this field is found to be intense although many challenges are put forward e g choice task complexity and cognitive effort experimental design preference and scale heterogeneity endogeneity or model uncertainty reviewing the state of the art of dces serves to draw attention to the main challenges that this methodological approach will need to overcome in the coming years and to identify the frontiers in discrete choice analysis

analysing the social benefits of soil conservation measures using stated preference methods the paper estimates the benefits of programmes to mitigate the off site impacts of soil erosion for a watershed in andalusia spain two stated preference methods are used namely choice experiments and contingent valuation to obtain estimates of the social benefit from soil erosion reductions under two different methodologies we emphasise the relative merits of the choice experiment method to provide useful inputs to policy design however employing both methods allows us to undertake a convergent validity test and thus to provide more defensible social benefit estimates the attributes used in the choice experiment include water quality impacts which we find to have the highest marginal values impacts on wildlife and the area subject to a control programme the contingent valuation design includes an attempt to reduce bias by reminding respondents about substitutes results are used to suggest upper limits on per hectare payments for soil conservation programmes

market potential and the rise of us productivity leadership abstract today s globalization driven by lower barriers to trade has increased market potential for many nations and led to gains in gdp per capita we test whether this was true in the first wave of globalization by constructing market potential measures for a sample of 27 countries in 1900 and 1910 based on a general equilibrium model of production and trade cross sectional estimates suggest that market potential was an economically significant determinant of gdp per capita at this time to assess welfare effects we then study the general equilibrium impact of raising market potential by eliminating international borders in a quantitative counterfactual calculation for 1900 there are significant gains in real income per capita for all nations we use us per capita output as a benchmark since it attained leadership in this variable from the late 19th century and the literature frequently attributes this to its relatively large domestic market a market unconstrained by trade costs associated with international borders because market potential was already near that of the us the largest european countries do not entirely close their per capita income gaps with the us after removing all border barriers to trade within europe or even globally on the other hand many small european countries could have done so

russia s commercial policy 2008 11 modernization crisis and the wto accession this paper examines the commercial policy of russia during 2008 11 a time of global financial crisis which coincided with an announced russian modernization programme in 2008 russia introduced a development strategy to limit its dependence on natural resources however the government relied heavily on this income for the planned modernization programme the falling price of oil in 2008 9 led to a tightened government budget constraint this situation induced russia towards wider use of more traditional instruments of trade policy such as tariff policy as well as an import substitution strategy the creation of the customs union and a pause in the wto accession process russia has been found by the global trade alert gta initiative to be one of the main users of protectionist policies since november 2008 with the oil price recovery from september 2010 russia had been back in the wto accession process on revised terms and conditions the wto ministerial conference in geneva approved the accession package of the russian federation on 16 december 2011 copyright 2012 oxford university press

effects on welfare measures of alternative means of accounting for preference heterogeneity in recreational demand models multiattribute revealed preference data are used to investigate heterogeneity in a sample of kayakers for a panel of whitewater sites in ireland this article focuses on a comparison of preference heterogeneity using a random parameter logit model with correlated tastes and a latent class model in terms of the implications for welfare measures of environmental quality and site access changes recreationalists skill levels are found to affect preferences in both approaches statistics for the estimated distribution of welfare changes for the average respondent are computed for changes in site attributes but contrary to previous work these are found to be of similar magnitude

the price differential between domestic and imported steel abstract in most years since the late 1950 s the price of imported steel has been below the domestic price this low import price has been a recurrent worry to steel workers and producers who fear that imports will force domestic mills out of business little help is expected from buyer loyalty to american steel steel is steel and the buyer need only find the cheapest source the concerns of the steel producers and workers seem at first well founded in economic theory two products which substitute perfectly in use simply cannot sell at different prices either the higher price will fall to meet the competition or production of the higher priced one will stop but the production of domestic steel has not stopped even though domestic producers have lost some ground to imports since the late 1950 s when imports first became low priced the demand for imports has grown steadily and sometimes suddenly as in 1968 still the amazing story is not that imports have grown swiftly but that they have grown slowly in 1962 imports had 6 percent of the u s market in 1976 14 years later they had 14 percent so each year on the average imports have increased their share of the market by less than one percent author

controlling for the effects of information in a public goods discrete choice model this paper develops a reduced form method of controlling for differences in information sets of subjects in public good discrete choice models using stated preference data the main contribution of our method comes from accounting for the effect of information provided during a survey on the mean and the variance of individual specific scale parameters in this way we incorporate both scale heterogeneity as well as observed and unobserved preference heterogeneity to investigate differences across and within information treatments our approach will also be useful to researchers who want to combine stated preference data sets while controlling for scale differences we illustrate our approach using the data from a discrete choice experiment study of a biodiversity conservation program and find that the mean of individual specific scale parameters and its variance in the sample is sensitive to the information set provided to the respondents

test retest reliability of choice experiments in environmental valuation the paper presents the results of the first test retest study on choice experiments in environmental valuation in a survey concerning landscape externalities of onshore wind power in central germany respondents answered the same five choice sets at two different points in time each choice set comprised three alternatives described by five attributes and the time interval between the test and the retest was eleven months the analysis takes place at three different levels investigating choice consistency at the choice task level and repeatability of the latent construct utility at the level of parametric models as well as at the level of willingness to pay estimates at the choice task level we observed 59 identical choices the parametric analysis shows that the test and retest estimates are not equal even when we control for scale that is differences in the error variance however comparing the marginal willingness to pay estimates among test and retest reveals only a statistically significant difference for one of the attributes overall this indicates a moderate test retest reliability taking into account that consistency at the choice task level overlooks the stochastic nature of the process underlying discrete choice experiments

the welfare effects of repealing the u s offshore assembly provision abstract this paper develops new estimates of the welfare and domestic production effects of repealing the us offshore assembly provision oap although the controversy surrounding the oap has recently intensified the only such estimates of repealing the oap weredeveloped by finger 1976 the estimates are developed by applying a partial equilibrium trade model of a two stage production process to nineteen productct categories in which oap trade was important in 1986 the paper find that repael of the oap reduces domestic welfare however the effects are small and almost negligible in percentage terms the important effects of repeal are distributional

designing choice sets for stated preference methods the effects of complexity on choice consistency abstract we vary the complexity of choice sets used in stated preference methods to evaluate the impact on choice consistency we define five measures of complexity that capture either the amount of information or the correlational structure of information in a choice set using these measures as randomly assigned treatments in a large experiment we analyze the consistency of respondents choices using a heteroskedastic multinomial logit model we find that i all of our measures of choice set complexity affect choice consistency ii changes in the correlational structure of information have the largest impact on choice consistency and iii choice complexity significantly distorts welfare estimates our results confirm economists initial worry that moving from contingent valuation to conjoint methods will increase complexity induced choice inconsistency however our analysis also shows that these negative impacts may be mitigated if precautions are taken at the design and estimation stages of stated preference methods

using neuroeconomics to understand environmental valuation contingent valuation choice experiments and other stated preference methods are frequently used to capture the nonmarket valuation of natural resources and ecosystem services the emerging field of neuroeconomics which assesses the neuroscience underlying decision making plots a promising course to explore the mechanisms underlying complex environmental valuation decisions neuroeconomic methods offer a unique capacity to isolate value components that contribute to willingness to pay wtp separating an individual s response to natural resource attributes that are of interest to economists from other attributes or influences on the decision process neuroimaging data can also aid in understanding differences in response between preference elicitation techniques and identifying the use of different decision processes and heuristics during valuation this article surveys the benefits and limitations of using neuroeconomics methods to assess the value of environmental goods and focuses on three examples where neuroeconomics may inform environmental valuation protest responses comparison of hypothetical and consequential choice contexts and the evaluation of environmental attributes and optimization of study design in stated choice experiments neuroeconomics methods offer a foundation for positive collaboration between environmental economists and cognitive neuroscientists yielding metrics that complement and augment current stated preference methods of determining environmental valuation

infant industry protection in the steel rail industry abstract this paper examines a particular instance of infant industry protection the case of the u s steel rail industry it analyzes the joint roles of learning by doing changing resource endowments and tariff protection in the emergence of this industry making use of estimated demand and cost parameters the paper simulates what would have happened to prices production and welfare under free trade i calculate that despite strong learning effects the steel rail tariff hurt rail users in both the short and long runs the tariff s overall effect on welfare was positive but fairly small

liquidity shortages and banking crises we show in this article that bank failures can be contagious unlike earlier work where contagion stems from depositor panics or contractual links between banks we argue that bank failures can shrink the common pool of liquidity creating or exacerbating aggregate liquidity shortages this could lead to a contagion of failures and a total meltdown of the system given the costs of a meltdown there is a possible role for government intervention unfortunately liquidity and solvency problems interact and can cause each other making it hard to determine the cause of a crisis we propose a robust sequence of intervention banks are often found at the center of systemic financial crises the causes of these crises have long been debated do they stem from depositor panics or do they arise because bank balance sheets are exposed to common factors if it is the latter then is there any sense in which bank failures can be contagious can anything be done to prevent these crises or stop them from propagating once they begin our purpose in this paper is to reexamine whether bank failures can start and propagate systemic crises even if we assume that depositors do not panic that is even if depositors actions are coordinated and they do not run simply because they fear others will run our focus is not because we think that panics are empirically unimportant the jury is still out on that instead we show that contagion can stem from an underlying real general equilibrium problem rather than just from lack of coordination among depositors from a policy perspective attempts to reassure investors through confidence building measures will not work if panic and lack of coordination are not the reasons for a crisis we begin in this paper with a model of a bank that we developed in diamond and rajan 2001 assets in this model are illiquid they cannot be borrowed against or sold for the full value of resources they will generate in their best use because the human capital necessary to generate that full value cannot

the volatility of offshore investment abstract offshore investment often bears the image of footloose industry with little to hinder movement to the most favorable environment an effort to describe this particular segment of u s direct investment supports some elements of the colorful anecdotal portrait painted by critics in the third world semiconductor assemblers are moderately sensitive to wage rates and adjust quite rapidly in maintaining what they perceive as a diversified portfolio of risky ldc production locations on the other hand this reaction is small enough to guarantee that modest increases in wages will not send all investment fleeing from an export platform new methods of modelling direct foreign investment when risk diversification is important in explaining industrial location decisions are introduced in this paper

interbank lending and systemic risk systemic risk refers to the propagation of a bank s economic distress to other economic agents linked to that bank through financial transactions banking authorities often prevent systemic risk through an implicit insurance of interbank claims or by reducing interbank transactions and centralizing banks liquidity management this paper investigates whether the flexability afforded by decentralized bank interactions can be preserved while protecting the central banks from the necessity of conducting undesired rescue operations it develops a model in which decentralized interbank leading is motivated by peer monitoring in this context the paper derives the optimal prudential rules and in particular looks at the impact of interbank monitoring on the solvency and liquidity ratios of borrowing and lending banks last it provides conditions which a too big to fail policy is or is not justified and studies the possibility of propagation of a bank s liquidity shock throughout the financial system copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

risk sharing and industrial specialization regional and international evidence the authors provide empirical evidence that risk sharing enhances specialization in production to the best of their knowledge this well established and important theoretical proposition has not been tested before the empirical procedure is summarized as follows first the authors construct a measure of specialization in production and calculate an index of specialization for each of the european community ec and non ec oecd countries u s states canadian provinces japanese prefectures latin american countries and regions of italy spain and the united kingdom then they estimate the degree of capital market integration a measure of risk sharing within each of these groups of regions the ec countries the non ec oecd countries the united states canada japan italy spain and the united kingdom and rely on another author s estimate for latin america finally they perform a regression of the specialization index on the degree of risk sharing controlling for relevant economic variables they find a positive and significant relation between the degree of specialization of individual members of a group of countries provinces states or prefectures and the amount of risk that is shared within the group the authors perform regressions using variables such as shareholder rights and the size of the financial sector relative to gdp as instruments for the amount of inter regional risk sharing these regressions confirm that risk sharing facilitated by a favorable legal environment and a developed financial system is a direct causal determinant of industrial specialization this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

european financial market dependence an industry analysis this paper uses a copula model to investigate the degree and determinants of european market dependence across 10 industries in 12 euro zone and 8 non euro zone stock markets during the period 1992 2011 most of the industries in euro countries show a dependence increase with the euro area after the introduction of the euro the effects are strongest in countries with larger market capitalization and in the financials industrials consumer goods utilities technology and telecommunications industries overall the export intensity interest rate sensitivity and competitiveness of an industry and the financial development and economic openness of a country are the most important determinants of changes in equity market dependence the period around the lehman collapse also shows higher equity market dependence between european countries while the lower dependence increase during the period of the recent european sovereign debt crisis suggests that country specific factors may matter more than before

financial integration productivity and capital accumulation understanding the mechanism through which nancial globalization aects eco nomic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and bene ts of opening nancial markets this paper is a rst attempt at disentangling the eects of nancial inte gration on the two main determinants of economic performance productivity tfp and investment i provide empirical evidence from a sample of 70 countries observed between 1975 and 1999 the results for both de jure and de facto indicators suggest that nancial integration has a positive direct eect on productivity while it does not directly aect capital accumulation i also control for indirect eects of nancial globalization through nancial development and banking and currency crises while nancial integration does not systematically increase domestic nancial depth it may raise the likelyhood of banking crises though only to a minor extent yet the overall eect of nancial liberalization remains positive for productivity and negligible for investment

testing the influence of substitute sites in nature valuation by using spatial discounting factors this paper investigates the effect of nearby nature substitute sites on preferences for nature restoration contrary to prior studies we use a respondent centric approach to control for substitute sites we assess each respondent specific spatial context by computing densities of nature substitute sites within various ranges from each respondent s home this approach considers the use and non use values of nature together data from three similar discrete choice experiments carried out in flanders belgium are compared different spatial discounting factors are tested to explore how the substitution effect behaves with regard to distance latent class analyses are performed to account for preference heterogeneity among respondents we observe divergent behaviours across groups of respondents the distance to substitutes affects how respondents gauge substitute sites we find a significant influence of the squared average buffer distance but this effect varies in sign across case studies and classes of respondents our results demonstrate that individual specific gis data can significantly improve the representation of the spatial context and the transferability of value functions however the roles played by preference heterogeneity and nature perception on respondents capacity to value nature still deserves further attention in future research

temporary protection and technology adoption evidence from the napoleonic blockade this paper uses a natural experiment to assess whether temporary protection from trade with industrial leaders can foster development of infant industries in follower countries using a new dataset compiled from primary sources i find that in the short run regions departements in the french empire which became better protected from trade with the british for exogenous reasons during the napoleonic wars 1803 15 increased capacity in a new technology mechanised cotton spinning to a larger extent than regions which remained more exposed to trade temporary protection had long term effects in particular by exploiting the fact that the post war location of the cotton industry was determined to a large extent by the historical accident of the wars i first show that the location of cotton spinning within france was persistent and firms located in regions with higher post war spinning capacity were more productive 30 years later second i find that after the restoration of peace exports of cotton goods from france increased substantially consistent with evolving comparative advantage in cottons third i show that as late as 1850 france and belgium both part of the french empire prior to 1815 had larger cotton spinning industries than other continental european countries which were not protected from british trade during the wars this suggests that adoption of the new technology was far from inevitable

sad or happy the effects of emotions on stated preferences for environmental goods a substantial literature in behavioural science and psychology shows that emotions affect human choices and values this paper investigates whether such emotional impacts are also present in stated choice experiments for environmental goods if this were so it would introduce an additional element of context dependence to the welfare measures derived from such methods and would be at odds with the rational choice model underlying welfare economics a laboratory experiment using three different emotion treatments was combined with a stated preference choice experiment concerned with changes in coastal water quality and fish populations in new zealand no statistically significant effects of changes in emotional state on estimated preference parameters willingness to pay or the randomness of choices were found the paper concludes by questioning why such a contrast exists with empirical findings in behavioural science