stabilization policy a reconsideration i introduction in 1936 keynes s general theory explained how fiscal and monetary policy could be used to end depressions since that time no developed country has ever seen a downturn on the scale of the 1930s the general theory was not just a how to book on the avoidance of depressions it was an argument for stabilization policy itself the years since the general theory have seen a revolt against keynesian economics in a revisionist mode milton friedman argued that countercyclical policy cannot affect the average level of unemployment and output robert lucas and thomas sargent 1979 went further contending that it is not only impossible to increase average output it is also impossible to stabilize it more recently lucas 1987 2003 has argued that policies to stabilize output even if effective would yield negligible welfare gains thus stabilization policy should not be a macroeconomic priority lucas s conclusion notwithstanding stabilization policy has long been an explicit or implicit objective of monetary policy in most industrial countries even including those countries with inflation targets the volatility of output has in fact declined in most major industrial countries since the mid 1980s and monetary policy arguably deserves at least partial credit see bernanke 2004 mirroring practice monetary policy research commonly takes it as given that along with price stability stabilization policy the minimization of squared deviations of output around potential is an appropriate policy objective see for example clarida et al 1999 in this article we explore the economic rationale for stabilization as a policy goal concluding that it does in fact deserve high policy priority we survey a large body of literature that critiques the validity of key assumptions in lucas s argument we also offer suggestive evidence that stabilization policy can significantly reduce average levels of unemployment by providing stimulus to demand in circumstances where unemployment is high but underutilization of labor and capital does little to lower inflation a monetary policy that vigorously fights high unemployment should however also be complemented by a policy that equally vigorously fights inflation when it rises above a modest target level the federal reserve act thus wisely enunciated price stability and maximum employment as twin goals for monetary policy ii the case against stabilization policy macroeconomic analysis typically assumes that social welfare depends negatively on both inflation above a modest target level here assumed zero and unemployment above some minimum socially efficient level for example a standard social welfare function is the discounted sum of period losses l sub t of the form see among others barro and gordon 1983 pp 592 93 1 l sub t a u sub t 1 k u sup 2 b pi sup 2 sub t where u sub t and pi sub t are the unemployment and inflation rates in period t and u sup is the natural rate of unemployment the coefficient k is positive reflecting the desirability of unemployment below the natural rate because real economies deviate in many respects from perfect competition the natural rate of unemployment is likely to exceed the socially optimal unemployment rate for example with monopolistic competition goods are underproduced because they are priced above marginal cost so potential output is inefficiently low and equilibrium unemployment is too high standard macroeconomic analysis additionally assumes that inflation is determined by an expectations augmented accelerationist phillips curve of the form 2 pi sub t pi sup e sub t f u sub t u sup epsilon sub t where pi sup e sub t is the expected inflation rate at time t with expectations formed at t 1 and epsilon sub t captures supply shocks to the phillips curve at t

a natural experiment on sick pay cuts sickness absence and labor costs abstract this study estimates the reform effects of a reduction in statutory sick pay levels on sickness absence behavior and labor costs german federal law reduced the legal obligation of german employers to provide 100 continued wage pay for up to six weeks per sickness episode in 1996 statutory sick pay was decreased to 80 of foregone gross wages within the reform s target group private sector employees this measure increased the proportion of employees having zero days of absence between 6 and 8 quantile regression estimates indicate that employees with up to 5 5 annual absence days reduced their days of absence by about 12 extended analyses suggest that in industries that enforced the cut behavioral effects were about twice as large we show that the direct labor cost savings effect stemming from the cut in replacement levels clearly exceeds the indirect effect due to the decrease in absenteeism our calculations about the total decrease in labor costs are very much in line with official data which suggest that total employer provided sick pay decreased by 6 7 or 1 7 billion per year

structural changes in the uk energy market abstract energy use in the uk has undergone substantial structural changes since the rapid rise in the price of oil in 1979 this paper traces the effect of the second round of oil price increases on the adoption of effective energy saving methods in industry and in private households in the uk the analysis shows the largest decrease of energy consumption occurred in industry which is both the most energy intensive as well as the most sensitive to energy prices

money still makes the world go round the zonal view many leading monetary economists have come to regard the monetary aggregates as obsolete measures of the monetary policy stance this critique has led some to view money as having lost its central role in the conduct of monetary policy we say to those advocating excising money from monetary policy not so fast to better understand the potential role for money we develop a zonal view of monetary policy which reflects the historical regularity for the relative informativeness of the quantitative measures of monetary policy such as the monetary aggregates and real interest rates to depend on the inflation zone in which a central bank finds itself the zones range from high inflation zone 1 to deep deflation zone 5 with intermediate zones of moderate inflation zone 2 low inflation zone 3 and low deflation zone 4 we find considerable support for this view in the historical data which stretches back to the 19 th century seen from this perspective the past experience of central banks casts doubt on the singular importance often attributed to the short term real interest rate as an indicator of the stance of monetary policy this applies especially in the current low inflation environment in which many central banks find themselves the zonal view has far reaching implications for monetary policy frameworks for the analytical efforts to understand the monetary policy transmission mechanism and for central bank communication strategies this paper was prepared for the 21 st congress of the european economic association held in vienna on august 27 2006 the views expressed in the paper are solely those of the authors

capital stock rotation conservation and fuel substitution in the uk industrial steam raising market abstract this paper summarizes recent research on economic and technological change in the uk steam boiler stock in the industrial and commercial sectors whilst some recent econometric analyses have drawn upon capital stock theory many hypotheses remain untested against empirical data the paper draws upon insurance company records to examine the key technical characteristics of the boiler stock in analysing current and prospective boiler fuel requirements emphasis is placed on the scope for interfuel substitution especially towards coal in this major market over the period to 2000

male labour force participation following illness or injury this paper develops a model of the disabled individual s labour force participation decision following illness or injury and confronts it with data on the financial consequences of ill health a utility function is specified which allows for the effect of changes in health on work leisure preferences and is evaluated in relation to a household budget constraint estimation is through maximization of the appropriate likelihood function correcting for self selection bias within a switching regression model results are presented showing significant effects of financial variables on participation and these are seen to vary with age disability and income

great powers hierarchy and endogenous regimes rethinking the domestic causes of peace this paper blends recent research on hierarchy and democratization to examine the theoretical and empirical costs of treating regime type exogenously in the literature most identified with studying its impact on international politics it argues that the apparent peace among democratic states that emerges in the aftermath of world war i is not caused by domestic institutional attributes normally associated with democracy instead this peace is an artifact of historically specific great power settlements these settlements shape subsequent aggregate patterns of military conflict by altering the organizational configuration of the system in three critical ways by creating new states by altering hierarchical orders and by influencing regime type in states these claims are defended with a series of tests that show first how the statistical relationship between democracy and peace has exhibited substantial variation across great power orders second that this statistical relationship breaks down with theoretically motivated research design changes and third that great powers foster peace and similar regime types within their hierarchical orders in short the relationship between democracy and peace is spurious the international political order is still built and managed by great powers

diffusion and the international context of democratization democracy does not evolve sui generis the spatial clustering in democ racy and transitions suggests that international factors play a prominent role in forg ing democracies as well as influencing their durability we argue that democracy often comes about as a result of changes in the relative power of important actors and groups as well as their evaluations of particular institutions both of which are often influenced by forces outside the country in question the scope and extent of con nections with other democratic countries in a region can strengthen support for dem ocratic reform and help sustain institutions in transitional democracies results from a transition model demonstrate that international factors can exert a strong influence on the prospects for transitions to democracy and the spatial clustering in democ racy and transitions cannot adequately be explained by the hypothesized domestic social requisites of individual countries

currencies and the allocation of risk the welfare effects of a monetary union in a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets nominal securities and mean variance preferences a monetary union is desirable when the gain from eliminating excess volatility of nominal variables exceeds the cost of reducing the number of currencies with which to hedge risks copyright 1998 by american economic association

financial factors in the great depression eginning with irving fisher 1933 and john maynard keynes 1931 b 1963 macroeconomists have argued that financial markets were important sources and propagators of decline during the great depression turning points during the depression often coincided with or were preceded by dramatic events in financial markets stock market collapse waves of bankruptcy and bank failure and contractions in the money stock but the mechanism through which financial factors contributed to the depression has been a source of controversy as has been the relative importance of financial factors in explaining the origins and persistence of the depression this essay reviews the literature on the role of financial factors in the depression and draws some lessons that have more general relevance for the study of the depression and for macroeconomics i argue that much of the recent progress that has been made in understanding some of the most important and puzzling aspects of financial real links in the depression followed a paradigm shift in economics a central neglected theoretical piece of the story for financial factors was the allocative effects of imperfections in capital markets which can imply links between disruptions in financial markets and subsequent economic activity also the increasing emphasis on learning and path dependence in economics has helped to explain why financial shocks during the 1930s were so severe and why policy makers failed to prevent the depression

does health insurance reduce illness related worker absenteeism the objective of this article is to examine whether having health insurance reduces illness related absenteeism among older workers a nationally representative sample of 1780 workers in the united states aged 52 64 are drawn from the 2004 2006 health and retirement study hrs binary logistic regressions and censored tobit models are estimated for workers likelihood of missing work days due to illness and the number of illness related work days missed respectively while explicitly addressing the possibility of insurance selection effects the findings suggest that over a 12 month period older workers without health insurance are as likely as insured workers to miss work days due to illness and there are no differences in the number of days missed between insured and uninsured workers however there is strong evidence that poor baseline health onset of new diseases and longer hospitalization significantly increase an older worker s absenteeism at work these results suggest that having health ins

the political impact of economic crisis in latin america in the 1980s research on the political implications of economic conditions is separated into two relatively distinct bodies of literature i bridge the theoretical gap between them by examining the effects of economic crisis on electoral outcomes in latin america from 1982 to 1990 an analysis of 21 competitive elections indicates that crisis conditions undermine support for incumbents and provoke high levels of electoral volatility but without necessarily fostering the growth of political extremism or the exhaustion of elite consensus associated with the breakdown of democracy the results also suggest that the relationship between economic conditions and electoral instability is mediated by party system structure rather than democratic age paradoxically the findings buttress prior research on electoral outcomes in the comparatively stable and homogeneous organization for economic cooperation and development oecd nations while undercutting theoretical frameworks elaborated with specific reference to the breakdown and consolidation of third world democracy

democracy economic development and income inequality most cross national tests of inverse association between democracy and inequality have operationalized the concept of democracy by measuring its level at a single point in time more compelling theoretical arguments can be made for causal relationships that operate over time between 1 a country s years of democratic experience and income inequality and 2 income inequality and the stability of democracy continuous and qualitative measures of years of democratic experience are estimated to have a significant negative impact on income inequality independent of economic development and other control variables for a sample of 55 countries a very strong inverse correlation is also observed between income inequality and regime stability for a sample of 33 democracies this association holds independent of economic development which is found to have no direct effect on democratic stability after controlling for income inequality

the political economy of the euro crisis this article introduces the special issue on the political economy of the euro crisis which aims to improve our understanding of the causes consequences and implications of the highly unusual nature of this crisis a financial crisis among developed countries within a supranational monetary union the article provides a brief chronology of the crisis discusses its underlying causes and reviews the ways in which comparative and international political economy can help us understand the crisis the article then discusses the individual and collective contributions of the articles in the special issue and discusses possible future research paths on the political economy of the euro crisis we conclude with a brief discussion of how a political economy perspective informs our understanding of the long term prospects for the eurozone and european integration

the ups and downs of capitalism ben bernanke is a leading macroeconomist who has contributed extensively to the literature on business cycles monetary policy the role of financial markets in economic fluctuations inflation targeting and the economics of the great depression he is one of the six economists who form the nber business cycle dating committee a group that determines the dates of recessions in the us in this article interview professor bernanke discusses issues relating to the great depression of the 1930s and problems relating to inflation in the latter half of the twentieth century

could stable money have averted the great contraction i introduction although over fifty years have elapsed since the onset of the great contraction controversy still swirls about the factors responsible for its depth and long duration a basic issue is the hypothesis due to friedman and schwartz 1963 that the great contraction would have been attenuated had the federal reserve not allowed the money stock to decline although the validity of the hypothesis has been a subject of much debate there is little empirical evidence directly addressing it a direct test of the friedman and schwartz hypothesis requires simulating the behavior of output under a counterfactual policy of stable money that approach was adopted by warburton 1966 friedman 1960 and modigliani 1969 none of whom constructed a model of the economy on the basis of which to conduct his test recently mccallum 1990 has used simulations from a macro model to show that his base rule with feedback would have avoided the severe decline in nominal income that occurred between 1929 and 1933 1 the extent to which his rule would have improved the behavior of nominal income depends on the value of the feedback coefficient mccallum s simulations however do not address the issue considered here of how a stable money rule would have performed in this paper we present simulations that focus on the stable money counterfactual our model is based on mccallum s but we use a more general framework than his that a estimates separate relations for output and the price level and b places no prior restrictions on the feedback from output and the price level to money our stable money counterfactual does not change the long term rate of money growth from that actually experienced and thus involves only short run changes in the behavior of the money supply we assume that dynamics embedded in the output and price relation are not especially sensitive to this type of policy change we simulate two variants of milton friedman s 1960 constant money growth rule the first a strong form of the rule assumes that the fed could quickly offset changes in the money multiplier by changes in high powered money and thus keep the money stock on the constant growth rate path in each quarter the second a weaker form of the rule assumes that the money multiplier is observed with a one quarter lag and the fed can only set the expected rate of growth of money conditional on last period information equal to the constant rate our basic simulation is derived from a model estimated for the 1921 1 1941 4 interwar period the results of this simulation buttress the views of friedman and schwartz had a constant money growth rule with an annual rate equal to the average 1921 41 rate of 2 95 percent been followed throughout the interwar period the great contraction would have been avoided real output would have declined from 1929 3 to 1933 1 but the order of magnitude of the cumulative change 11 1 to 21 6 percent and the annual rate of change 3 3 to 6 6 percent when the actual cumulative change was 36 2 percent and the annual rate of change was 12 1 percent would have been comparable to other recessions in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries in the basic simulation we assume that the output and price relations remained stable over the entire interwar period the extraordinary economic conditions of the great contraction could have arguably shifted the output and price relations thus we also present an alternative simulation that uses estimates of these relations based on the 1920s data this simulation shows that a constant money growth rule with an annual rate equal to the 1921 29 average of 3 29 percent would have prevented even a mild recession during the great contraction period section ii contains a brief survey of the continuing debate over the cause and propagation mechanism of the great contraction and its implications for the stable money hypothesis

the reductionist gamble open economy politics in the global economy international political economy ipe should transition to third wave scholarship because open economy politics oep which dominates current american ipe scholarship can generate inaccurate knowledge oep can produce inaccurate knowledge because it studies domestic politics in isolation from international or macro processes this methodological reductionism is often inappropriate for the phenomena ipe studies because governments inhabit a complex social system as a result the political choices that oep strives to explain are typically a product of the interplay between domestic politics and macro processes when oep omits causally significant macro processes from empirical models the models yield biased inferences about the domestic political relationships under investigation although scholars tolerated such errors when the gains from oep were large these errors are less tolerable now that oep has matured consequently the field should transition toward research that is nonreductionist problem driven and pluralistic

meltzer s history of the federal reserve this review argues that allan meltzer s account of the fed between 1913 1951 complements friedman and schwartz s in their monetary history meltzer emphasises policy making within the system rather than the evolution of the money supply and its effects on the economy he stresses the uncertainty of the fed s independence before the 1951 accord and the effects of economic ideas notably the real bills and riefler burgess doctrines on policy many virtues in the book are noted and one weakness a failure to explain why inadequate ideas became dominant within the fed when sounder alternatives were available in contemporary monetary thought

trade barriers and the collapse of world trade during the great depression 1 introduction the contraction in world trade during the first phase of the great depression stands out as the strongest adverse shock to international trade in modern history from 1929 to 1932 world import and export volume in the industrialized nations decreased about 30 however it is not well understood which factors were responsible for the collapse the factors that have been highlighted in the literature are declining demand escalating tariff and nontariff trade barriers increasing bilateral trade agreements and international exchange rate policies the importance attributed to each of these factors has often been controversial pollard 1962 p 200 for instance argues that for britain the fall in total foreign trade as a proportion of home production was a part of a secular trend and may well not have been caused by the tariff as such by contrast khan 1946 p 246 claims that within 12 to 18 months uk nominal imports of manufactures from most of europe and the united states were reduced by something like 60 as a result of the tariff similarly saint etienne 1984 p 29 argues that by the mid 1930 s international trade had become in large proportion barter trade as a result of the tariffs and nontariff barriers empirical studies have examined the effects of trade restrictions on incomes to explain the declining trade for individual countries the studies of crucini and kahn 1996 and irwin 1998 find that the tariffs were influential for the u s imports and exports in his study of nominal imports to the european countries friedman 1974 quantified the effects of trade barriers on nominal imports and ultimately income by means of dummies in periods of significant tariffs and nontariff barriers he found that trade restrictions had a significant impact on trade in a few countries however as friedman himself acknowledges the weakness of this approach is that strong and weak forms of trade barriers are restricted to impact equally on imports in the estimates coupled with the small sample problems that plagued his estimates the trade barrier dummies were unlikely to effectively have captured the effects of trade barriers on imports which explains substantial variations of the estimated effects of the tariffs and the nontariff barriers across countries the study of eichengreen and irwin 1995 is probably the most extensive analysis of trade flows in the interwar period using 561 cross sectional bilateral trade flows over three periods 1928 1935 and 1938 they estimate a gravity model of trade patterns they relate the value of bilateral flows to national income population distance contiguity trade and currency block indicators and exchange rate variability to examine the effects on trade of trade and currency blocks and exchange rate variability they observe a declining marginal propensity to import and export during the depression which they attribute to quotas and other binding trade restrictions but do not formally test their importance this paper seeks to estimate the contribution of income tariffs and nontariff barriers on world trade during the depression using panel data for 17 countries over the period from 1920 to 1938 the panel data approach enables the assessment of the influence on trade of nontariff barriers from estimates of import and export functions by using as an identifying assumption that the nontariff barriers were to some degree simultaneously imposed and relaxed across the industrialized nations during the interwar period the estimates and extensive evidence from the literature suggest that this identifying assumption is valid section 3 in section 4 the changes in world trade in the interwar period are decomposed into income effects tariff effects and nontariff barrier effects the trade effects of the tariff changes are furthermore decomposed into deflation inflation induced tariff changes and discretionary tariff induced changes

pattern of uk fuel use abstract this paper provides an analysis of the historical development of the uk primary energy market more specifically of coal gas and heavy fuel oil the period considered for this investigation is 1960 83 a theoretical framework is set up and the significant shifts in the market are traced accordingly as it turns out the shifts in the energy market of the uk have been similar to those in other european countries despite indigenous oil and gas resources

trade based diffusion of labor rights a panel study 1986 2002 this article investigates the nature of the linkages between trade and labor rights in developing countries specifically we hypothesize that a california effect serves to transmit superior labor standards from importing to exporting countries in a manner similar to the transmission of environmental standards we maintain that all else being equal the labor standards of a given country are influenced not by its overall level of trade openness but by the labor standards of its trading partners we evaluate our hypothesis using a panel of 90 developing countries over the period 1986 2002 and we separately examine the extent to which the labor laws and the actual labor practices of the countries are influenced by those of their export destinations we find that strong legal protections of collective labor rights in a country s export destinations are associated with more stringent labor laws in the exporting country this california effect finding is however weaker in the context of labor rights practices highlighting the importance of distinguishing between formal legislation and actual implementation of labor rights

democratic institutions and exchange rate commitments since the collapse of the bretton woods system countries have been able to choose from a variety of exchange rate arrangements we argue that politicians incentives condition the choice of an exchange rate arrangement these incentives reflect the configuration of domestic political institutions particularly electoral and legislative institutions in systems where the cost of electoral defeat is high and electoral timing is exogenous politicians will be less willing to forgo their discretion over monetary policy with a fixed exchange rate in systems where the costs of electoral defeat are low and electoral timing is endogenous politicians are more likely to adopt a fixed exchange rate regime consequently differences in domestic political systems can help account for variations in the choice of exchange rate arrangements we test this argument using constrained multinomial logit and binomial logit on a sample of twenty democracies over the period 1974 95 domestic political institutions have a significant effect on exchange rate regime choice even after controlling for systemic macroeconomic and other political variables

international liquidity in a multipolar world today s global monetary and financial system to a remarkable extent continues to rely on the u s dollar for international liquidity this reflects the currency s historic role the liquidity of american financial markets and the absence of alternatives but with the emergence of emerging markets the capacity of the united states to provide safe assets will be outstripped by the growth of international transactions it is thus likely that other large economies presumably europe and china will eventually join the united states as sources of international liquidity and that other currencies will come to share the dollar s reserve currency status

investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes under inflation targeting estimates of the indexation parameter in hybrid new keynesian phillips curves are either equal to zero or very low in the united kingdom canada sweden and new zealand analogous results hold for the euro area under the european monetary union and for switzerland under the new monetary regime under stable regimes with clearly defined nominal anchors inflation appears to be purely forward looking these results question the notion that the intrinsic inflation persistence found in post wwii u s data is structural in the sense of lucas carnegie rochester conference series on public policy 1 1976 19 46 and suggest that hardwiring inflation persistence in macroeconomic models is potentially misleading

international aspects of the great depression and the crisis of 2007 similarities differences and lessons we focus on two international aspects of the great depression financial crises and international trade and try to discern lessons for the current economic crisis both downturns featured global banking crises which were generated by boom slump macroeconomic cycles during both crises world trade collapsed faster than world incomes and the trade decline was highly synchronized across countries during the depression income losses and rises in trade barriers explain trade s collapse owing to vertical specialization and more intense trade in durables today s trade collapse is due to uncertainty and small shocks to trade costs hitting international supply chains so far the global economy has avoided the global trade wars and banking collapses of the depression perhaps owing to improved policy even so the global economy remains susceptible to large shocks owing to financial innovation and technological

politics institutions and trade lessons of the interwar era recent studies cast doubt on the value added of international trade agreements and institutions using a new data set that consists of about 35 000 observations on the trade of fifty four nations between 1919 and 1938 we examine whether this skepticism also applies to the infamous interwar trade blocs traditional historical accounts attribute to them a large drop in international trade and a rise in the political tensions that would later erupt in world war ii in this study we show that no bloc raised trade among its members as a whole or decreased trade between members and nonmembers however our findings are not wholly consistent with the skepticism recent studies express we argue that conflicts of interest among the great powers encouraged the emergence of the bloc system and also gave rise to intrabloc trade shifts consistent with the political interests of their great power hubs the political military alliances these conflicts created also reduced trade between their signatories and we argue more generally that the causal chain runs from politics to trade as a result measuring only the effect of agreements and institutions on aggregate trade between their members can generate inaccurate estimates of their value added

trade blocs currency blocs and the reorientation of world trade in the 1930s we analyze the impact of commercial and financial policies on the reorientation of trade in the 1930s we report evidence that commercial policies attenuated prior connections between income growth and trade and that exchange rate instability marginally discouraged international trade in contrast the tendency toward regionalization commonly ascribed to the formation of trade and currency blocs was already evident to a considerable extent prior to the regional policy initiatives of the 1930s this reorientation is more properly attributed to ongoing historical forces such as commercial and financial links between countries forged over many years

environmental policies market responses and incentives abstract environmental degradation cannot be cured by relying solely on the public sector debating and introducing policies and control to prompt the market to develop the technology for reducing emission there has to be a more tangible evidence of an economic gain and a much higher return than currently prevails for new investment there is a tendency within industry to favour revenue generation projects against those for cost reduction by requiring shorter gestation and payback periods for the latter even though the former is the dual of the latter thus energy efficiency projects tend to receive low priorities by industry by requiring much higher return and faster payback periods for them sometimes as low as three months it is possible that a supply shock may need to occur to induce the market to invest and develop the required technology in order to redress some of the current environmental imbalance

viewpoint understanding the great depression bernanke 2000 and james 2001 it is now commonplace to view the depression from an international perspective and to test causal hypotheses by comparing the experiences of countries that endured more and less severe cyclical downturns this is in contrast with the earlier generation of scholarship notably the influential work of friedman and schwartz 1963 and temin 1976 which viewed the depression as centred in the united states and focused on shocks and policies in that country specific hypotheses associated with the global perspective continue to be disputed but there seems little question that the international view serves as a point of departure for a growing portion of recent scholarship whether this new research has produced a scholarly consensus is another matter in this paper i ask whether it is possible to arrive at such a consensus by synthesizing the old and new literatures i describe a perspective that views the great depression as a global phenomenon emphasizing linkages among countries and the destabilizing influence of the international monetary and financial system but that at the same time acknowledges the uniquely important character of events and policies in the united states i thereby suggest that the opposition between the old and new or u s centric and global views of the great depression may ultimately prove artificial the task for macroeconomic and historical scholarship

political regimes and economic growth arguments that relate regimes to growth focus on property rights pressures for immediate consumption and the autonomy of dictators while everyone seems to agree that secure property rights foster growth it is controversial whether democracies or dictatorships better secure these rights the main mechanism by which democracy is thought to hinder growth is pressure for immediate consumption which reduces investment only states that are institutionally insulated from such pressures can resist them and democratic states are not the main argument against dictatorships is that authoritarian rulers have no interest in maximizing total output these views are summarized in turn

business cycles in international historical perspective business cycle models seek to answer the question of why economies go through cycles of recession and recovery or boom and bust any theory of the business cycle makes two sorts of claims what shocks are most important in disturbing the economy and what economic structure is necessary for propagating these shocks for example one common explanation of business cycles begins with monetary shocks and then seeks to explain why monetary shocks are not purely neutral as neoclassical theory would have it and instead have real effects at least in the short term early models in this vein were often implicitly or explicitly based on the proposition that markets do not clear continuously early equilibrium real business cycle theories instead emphasized the importance of real shocks especially to technology which may cause socially efficient fluctuations even when markets are always in equilibrium more recent models have attempted to marry the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics with the substantive keynesian ideas that money is not neutral and that economic fluctuations are costly new keynesian theories of the business cycle admit the possibility of a number of economic shocks including monetary and technology shocks but then focus on explaining how nominal price rigidities within the economy can turn these shocks into recessions or booms other models show that business cycles driven by keynesian animal spirits are consistent with rigorous microfoundations and rational expectations seeking empirical evidence for and against these various approaches we turn business cycle theories loose on perhaps the greatest macroeconomic laboratory

golden fetters the gold standard and the great depression barry eichengreen oxford university press new york 1992 pp xix 448 39 95

economic determinants of democracy the relationship between the level of economic development and the level of democracy found in most quantitative cross national research implies that the largest gains in democracy are experienced by countries at intermediate levels of development during the 1960s and 1970s however middle income countries were more likely to register declines in democracy than increases i explain this anomaly with the hypothesis that income inequality affects democracy and this effect often counteracts the positive influence of economic development because intermediate levels of economic development are associated with the highest levels of income inequality the independent negative effect of income inequality on change in level of democracy explains the declines in democracy in middle income countries cross national data from a sample of 58 countries support the hypothesis of a negative effect of income inequality on change in level of democracy from 1965 to 1980 this effect is robust when noneconomic determinants of democracy are taken into account and when sample size is increased

economic integration and political disintegration in a world of trade restrictions large countries enjoy economic benefits because political boundaries determine the size of the market under free trade and global markets even relatively small cultural linguistic or ethnic groups can benefit from forming small homogeneous political jurisdictions this paper provides a formal model of the relationship between openness and the equilibrium number and size of countries and successfully tests two implications of the model firstly the economic benefits of country size are mediated by the degree of openness to trade secondly the history of nation state creations and secessions is influenced by the trade regime

the new deal and modern memory summary economists and other social scientists may never be able to explain fully why the greatdepression happened when it did or why it initially was so severe numerous hypotheses havebeen advanced as we have seen and each of them contributes important insights into thecauses of the macroeconomic calamity in which most of the world was mired in 1929 1933 if however one is forced to adopt a monocausal theory it must center on the actions of america scentral bank which presided over an extraordinary expansion in bank credit in the mid to late1920s and then took the punch bowl off the table for the purposes of this article though the key question is why did the great depressionlast longer in the united states than it did in any other nation the answer as laid out in thenext section is presidential politics 23 there will come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of egypt but after them will arise seven years offamine and all the plenty will be forgotten in the land of egypt the famine will consume the land genesis 41 29 30 nkjv

the nation in depression t he economic cataclysm of the 1930s was an international phenomenon experienced by countries in all parts of the globe countries as diverse as the united states germany chile and japan all experienced significant depressions in the 1930s thus the title of charles kindleberger s classic book the world in depression 1973 captures an important feature of the great depression these international aspects especially the importance of the gold standard in causing the downturn and transmitting depression from one country to another have been emphasized in recent years in excellent books by peter temin 1989 and barry eichengreen 1992 these books have rightly received widespread attention and have successfully changed the focus of much analysis of the great depression from the united states to the world economy while such a change from american provincialism is surely healthy and warranted adopting an international perspective on the great depression risks losing sight of the many ways in which the u s depression differed in timing and severity from depressions elsewhere more important it may obscure the many uniquely american causes of america s great depression this paper examines the ways in which the u s experience during the 1930s resembled that of other countries in some regards and fundamentally differed in other aspects i also evaluate the evidence on the causes of the great depression in the united states and the sources of the eventual recovery i suggest that the path of american output and unemployment before 1931 can be explained quite well with only domestic factors even after 1931

the east european revolution of 1989 is it surprising that we were surprised many aspects of the east european revolution are controversial but on one point everyone agrees it caught the world by surprise even local dissidents were stunned by the sudden turn of events we will never know how many east europeans did foresee the explosion of 1989 but at each step accounts painted a picture of nations united in amazement to my knowledge only one study addresses the issue systematically four months after the breaching of the berlin wall the allensbach institute asked a broad sample of east germans a year ago did you expect such a peaceful revolution only 5 percent answered yes though 18 percent responded yes but not that fast fully 76 percent admitted to being totally surprised these figures are all the more remarkable given the i knew it would happen fallacy the human tendency to exaggerate foreknowledge baruch fischhoff and ruth beyth 1975 yet in hindsight the revolution appears as inevitable in each of the six countries the leadership was despised economic promises remained unfulfilled and basic freedoms existed only on paper more importantly winds of change in the soviet union were making soviet intervention increasingly unlikely but if the revolution was indeed inevitable why was it not foreseen what kept us from noticing signs that now after the fact are so plainly visible i preference falsification and revolutionary bandwagons

blood and treasure exiting the great depression and lessons for today although avoiding the policy mistakes of the 1930s helped define how policy makers responded to the 2007 8 financial crisis and ensuing recession policy applications to the recovery phase are less well understood we draw on the experience of the us in the 1930s to shed light on exit strategies movements back to institutional conditions associated with steady state growth including stable inflation and broadly non interventionist credit and capital market policies we describe how policy responses to the deflation and banking crises of the 1930s coloured the exit policy debate after the great depression we show that a full exit from the great depression defined as the point at which interventionist credit and capital market policies and institutions were wound down did not occur in the 1930s it took until the 1950s for this to occur and for the federal reserve to regain its independence and return unfettered to its longer run

lessons from the political economy of the new deal the new deal produced a fundamental change in the structure of american government the national government came to play a much larger role in the financing of social welfare programmes while administration of the programmes was largely located at the states both the purely national and the shared federal parts of the welfare system were characterized by impersonal rules the political economy of how the rules came about and how the new deal experience may have contributed to americans changing their views on the danger of dealing with the national government is the primary focus the paper closes with speculations about the possible effect of changing views on american participation in the second world war after 1939

democracy development and the international system as noted by seymour m lipset over 50 years ago development and democracy have been strongly correlated in the contemporary world today even after the prolonged democratization wave that started in the 1970s and accelerated in the 1990s the distribution of democracies remains highly skewed by level of per capita income whereas 94 of the countries with a per capita income above 10 000 in constant of 1996 held free and competitive elections in 1999 only 18 with a per capita income below 2 000 did so this empirical relationship between income and democracy was even tighter earlier in history just looking at per capita income we can successfully predict 76 of the annual observations of political regimes in sovereign countries after world war two the proportion of cases that are predicted correctly is 85 for the interwar period and 91 before world war one 1

british monetary and fiscal policy in the 1930s current economic turbulence has revived interest in interwar macroeconomic instability and policy this paper provides a guide to the current state of knowledge on british macroeconomic policy between 1929 and the eve of the second world war for today s economists and policy makers mindful that some will seek lessons from this earlier age it makes clear the very particular economic and policy context of the time including the marked difference between british and american economic performance and policies and the challenge posed by the massive rise in debt brought about by the first world war knowledge transfer is possible here for policy learning but what transpires is that lessons are typically stronger as negatives than as positives namely what should not be done in general as against what might be done this largely situation specific the focus is the role and effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal policies pursued together with an assessment of the principal policy not adopted namely the keynesian solution of significant loan financed public works to remedy mass unemployment the analysis is comparative with respect to us macroeconomic economic performance and policy it explores the different macroeconomic shocks of the contraction phase the term great depression is not really appropriate to the british experience in the two countries comparative policy regimes and then in turn analyses the policy mix and policy effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy including for britain the counterfactual keynesian solution a business cycle periodization is adopted with the key role for the abandonment of the gold standard in terms of regaining freedom of choice in macroeconomic policy itself experiencing significant developments after 1931 the traditional role of the cheap money induced housing boom in britain s post 1932 economic recovery is reaffirmed the impact of the fiscal policies actually pursued are then discussed as are assessments of the likely effectiveness of the keynesian solution had the 1929 liberal party s we can conquer unemployment spending package been implemented

the development and decline of medieval voting institutions a comparison of england and france voting institutions developed throughout medieval europe but they varied significantly in their power form and durability this paper attempts to explain why both feudal councils and representative voting institutions were more developed more powerful and more durable in medieval england than in france in explaining these differences we address several related questions within this historical setting 1 what is the relationship between the power of rulers and the development of voting institutions 2 how did war affect the development of voting institutions 3 why did national voting institutions become dominant in england while regional institutions became more important in france and 4 what were the consequences of the integration of judicial and tax granting functions in the english parliament and their institutional differentiation judicial functions in parliament and tax granting in the estates general in france to answer these questions we use a general rational choice model of the process by which an autocratic state will develop protodemocratic voting institutions barzel 1996 kiser and barzel 1991 we assume that rulers and subjects are rational actors maximizing a combination of wealth and security we argue that voting institutions such as the english parliament and the french estates general emerged as an unintended outcome of wealth seeking by rulers and subjects in the context of the middle ages national voting institutions were mechanisms that allowed rulers and subjects to cooperate with each other on mutually profitable projects in spite of their utility many of these institutions including the french estates general eventually declined in our view voting institutions declined primarily due to increases in factors that made cooperation more difficult the two most important of these were the heterogeneity of voters interests and the insecurity of rulers increasing heterogeneity weakened voting institutions by increasing decision costs and the probability of confiscation by some voters from others increasing insecurity of rule led to the decline of voting institutions by decreasing the credibility of rulers commitments decreasing the amount of contracting producing a separation of tax payments and voting rights and causing rulers to fear the organizational capacities of assemblies of subjects the conflicts between rulers and subjects and between different groups of subjects can often be traced to increases in the heterogeneity of subjects interests or the insecurity of rulers our theory should apply generally and it should thus be evaluated in as many diverse settings as possible however a large number of factors must be controlled in order to isolate the comparisons of interest in comparing medieval england and france many factors are controlled since they are common to the two making it easier to isolate theoretically relevant factors as tempting as it is to expand the empirical scope of the comparisons to additional cases we refrain from doing so casually and focus only on medieval england and france 1 i prior explanations of the development of medieval voting institutions although general theoretical arguments about the evolution of voting institutions are rare many scholars have offered inductive generalizations consisting of lists of structural factors correlated with the development of voting institutions in medieval europe weber 1968 1057 1352 argues that medieval rulers bargained with subjects in voting institutions only when they lacked the power to coerce tax payments from them beyond their customary feudal obligations he goes on to state 1968 1086 87 that when rulers developed tax collection bureaucracies they had the power necessary to extract taxes from subjects without negotiation so they did away with voting institutions two major empirical observations from the domain of or study tend to refute weber s argument

going onto invalidity benefit a study for women 1977 78 1983 84 the main form of state insurance for long term sickness in britain is invalidity benefit there has been a dramatic growth in the stock of claimants on this benefit since its introduction in 1971 a logit model is fitted to explain at the individual level the probability of entering invalidity benefit among over 50 000 women in 1977 8 and over 65 000 in 1983 4 demographic characteristics played a powerful role in this model pay and benefit rates were also significant married women s entry probabilities were highly sensitive to local labour market conditions and much more so than other population groups

rulers of the game central bank independence during the interwar years central bank independence is associated with restrictive monetary choices that can be deflationary within fixed exchange rate regimes because central banks act to counteract domestic inflation they put a premium on domestic price stability at the expense of international monetary stability evidence from fifteen countries between 1925 and 1938 shows that the more independent central banks took more deflationary policies than were necessary for external adjustment central banks in general were more restrictive under left wing governments than they were under more conservative regimes and often were more restrictive than required for external equilibration this suggests that policies of independent central banks designed to enhance domestic price stability may force deflationary pressures onto other states in the system and potentially destabilize a fixed exchange rate regime

deflation and monetary policy in a historical perspective remembering the past or being condemned to repeat it inflation is currently low and stable in industrialized countries but might deflation replace inflation as a major policy concern we present a broad cross country historical study of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on current policy challenges in the light of the relevant theoretical approaches we empirically characterize good bad and ugly deflations assess similarities between the current low inflation environment and that of the gold standard period and discuss lessons from the historical record as to policies to escape undesirable deflation and the relative merits of interest rate and monetary instruments michael bordo and andrew filardo

macroprudential policy what can it achieve this paper examines both the objectives and the available instruments for new macroprudential policy making bodies it argues that the objective financial stability is best understood as avoiding widespread disruption of financial flows achieving this objective requires that policy makers carry out two different but related tasks first they must ensure the resilience of the financial system to external shocks second they must respond in a timely fashion to future unsustainable expansions of credit and growth of asset prices these are old policy challenges what has changed is the emergence of new vulnerabilities in our innovative and relatively lightly controlled financial system exposed by the recent global financial crisis macroprudential policy can be effective in addressing these vulnerabilities but will not remove the major political and institutional obstacles to the effective control of unsustainable credit expansions 136 words

restarting globalization after world war ii structure coalitions and the cold war the present period of economic globalization originated following world war ii given the strongly protectionist tendencies prevailing at the time how did this happen structural economic and military causes along with intervening coalitional and institutional factors are considered trade policy change is examined in the five largest trading economies britain france the federal republic of germany japan and the united states structural economic causes best explain why protectionist tendencies were so strong and why they were weakest in the united states and the federal republic the liberalizing trend inaugurated in the united states and the federal republic was also facilitated by coalitional side payments to agriculture cold war related military interests appear to have been the strongest impetus behind the unilateral form of the liberalization

a century of us central banking goals frameworks accountability several key episodes in the 100 year history of the federal reserve have everal key episodes in the 100 year history of the federal reserve have been referred to in various contexts with the adjective great attached to been referred to in various contexts with the adjective great attached to them the great experiment of the federal reserve s founding the great them the great experiment of the federal reserve s founding the great depression the great infl ation and subsequent disinfl ation the great moderation depression the great infl ation and subsequent disinfl ation the great moderation and the recent great recession here i ll use this sequence of great episodes and the recent great recession here i ll use this sequence of great episodes to discuss the evolution over the past 100 years of three key aspects of federal to discuss the evolution over the past 100 years of three key aspects of federal reserve policymaking the goals of policy the policy framework and accountability reserve policymaking the goals of policy the policy framework and accountability and communication the changes over time in these three areas provide a useful and communication the changes over time in these three areas provide a useful perspective i believe on how the role and functioning of the federal reserve have perspective i believe on how the role and functioning of the federal reserve have changed since its founding in 1913 as well as some lessons for the present and for changed since its founding in 1913 as well as some lessons for the present and for the future the future

capital controls and recovery from the financial crisis of the 1930s abstract we examine the first widespread use of capital controls in response to a global or regional financial crisis in particular we analyze whether capital controls mitigated capital flight in the 1930s and assess their causal effects on macroeconomic recovery from the great depression we find evidence that they stemmed gold outflows in the year following their imposition however time shifted difference in differences dd estimates of industrial production prices and exports suggest that capital controls did not accelerate macroeconomic recovery relative to countries that went off gold and floated countries imposing capital controls also appear to perform similar to the gold bloc countries once the latter group of countries finally abandoned gold time series analysis suggests that countries imposing capital controls refrained from fully utilizing their newly acquired monetary policy autonomy

reassessing the three waves of democratization since the publication of samuel huntington s 1991 study of democratization scholars have come to take for granted the notion that the spread of democracy has come in waves although huntington s work has clearly proved to be an influential study this article suggests that his analysis is far from compelling there are two problems embodied in the work the first is largely conceptual huntington s analysis fails to provide a clear and meaningful distinction between democratic and authoritarian regimes because it focuses primarily on what dahl had defined in 1971 as the dimension of competition and pays insufficient attention to the equally important dimension of inclusion the second problem is more empirical huntington has estimated the incidence of transitions to democracy in terms of the percentages of world states involved since the denominator in this equation that is the number of states in the world is far from constant this measure can be misleading this article proposes solutions to both of these problems and this new approach leads to conclusions that are quite different from huntington s the new findings are important not only because they suggest a somewhat altered sequencing and a more accurate count of democratization waves but also because they cast real doubt on the appropriateness of the wave metaphor as the reverse waves are not really apparent from these data these results therefore also indicate that future studies should be cautious in comparing explaining and forecasting different waves of democratization

the duration of invalidity benefit claims a proportional hazard model this paper analyses the duration of invalidity benefit claims in great britain among men and women the cox proportional hazard model is used to estimate the effect of personal characteristics and economic factors on the claimants probability of leaving the benefit on the whole similar results were obtained for the male and female models although labour market related factors appear to have a stronger effect on the length of male claims women are also likely to have shorter claims than men age and benefit level in particular emerged as having a significant effect on the duration of claims by both groups with higher values for these variables being associated with longer claims

kicking the habit moving from pegged rates to greater exchange rate flexibility why do governments find it so difficult to move from pegged exchange rates to greater exchange rate flexibility i first establish that there is a problem to be solved that there are powerful incentives for greater flexibility deriving from changes in the international economic and financial environment but that policymakers find it difficult to engineer a smooth transition i offer practical suggestions and a framework under which the probability of a smooth transition can be maximised drawing examples from recent economic history i then attempt to understand the experience of selected countries which have undertaken this transition

structural change and energy use the case of the manufacturing sector in taiwan abstract this paper examines the role of sectoral shift and improvements in energy intensity of individual industries in aggregate manufacturing sector energy intensity changes in taiwan during 1971 1985 the divisia index approach is employed to decompose sectoral shift and energy intensity effects a major finding of this analysis is that changes in energy intensities of individual industries were the main influence in changes in aggregate manufacturing sector fuel and electricity intensities during the period sectoral shifts were found to contribute very little to the energy intensity changes

sick pay insurance and sickness absence some european cross country observations and a review of previous research all european countries have some form of compulsory insurance against the loss of income due to temporary disability the insurance schemes vary widely between countries both in terms of measurable

sovereign risk credibility and the gold standard 1870 1913 versus 1925 31 author s obstfeld maurice taylor alan m abstract what determines sovereign risk we study the london bond market from the 1870s to the 1930s our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the low credibility of the interwar gold standard before 1914 gold standard adherence effectively signalled credibility and shaved up to 30 basis points from country borrowing spreads in the 1920s however simply resuming prewar gold parities was insufficient to secure benefits countries that devalued before resumption were treated more favorably and markets scrutinized other signals public debt and british empire membership were important determinants of spreads after world war one but not before

regime type the fate of leaders and war we propose and test a formal model of war and domestic politics building on recent evidence on the relationship between regime type the effect of war on the probability of losing office and the consequences of losing office the less the outcome of international interaction affects a leader s tenure and the less punitive are the consequences of losing office the more a leader is willing to make concessions to strike a peaceful bargain we demonstrate that our theory successfully predicts war involvement among nondemocratic regime types moreover our theory offers an intuitive explanation for the democratic peace compared to nondemocratic leaders the tenure of democratic leaders depends relatively little on the war outcome and democratic leaders fare relatively well after losing office thus democratic leaders should be more willing and able to avoid war especially with other democrats

imperfect tagging in social insurance programs abstract this paper derives the optimal benefit structure of an earnings insurance program when a characteristic or tag imperfectly identifies those unable to work with a two sided classification error the optimal program is a dual work incentive system with a work non work consumption differential maintained for the tagged and untagged just sufficient to induce the able in each group to work and with more generous payments to tagged than to untagged individuals of the same work status it includes premiums to program eligible individuals who work a price missing in the u s social security disability system and in earlier attempts to characterize the optimal disability program

industrial electricity consumption in the uk past determinants and future prospects the determinants of industrial electricity demand are examined and it is found that more than 40 of demand growth in the period 1959 1980 was caused by factors either unrelated or only indirectly related to growth in industrial output factors such as adjustments in industrial structure technical change and the decline in self generation of electricity were all important contributors to demand growth together with the methodological problems of using price as an explanatory variable this suggests that those econometric approaches to demand forecasting for industrial electricity which rely solely on projections of industrial output and price are seriously defective output level and price are important in future demand but current methods are not appropriate to capture their effect and more detailed sectoral work is required which should take into account structural and technical change and developments in self generation

the effects of worker heterogeneity on duration dependence low back claims in workers compensation we estimate models of workers compensation claim duration for a sample of canadian workers with serious low back injuries the models extend recent duration research by allowing worker characteristics to affect duration dependence through the nonlocation parameters of the duration distribution we compare results for modified weibull models and piecewise constant hazard rate models of duration dependence the results show that workers responses to elapsed claim duration vary significantly with their characteristics and with economic incentives to return to work further allowing for heterogeneity in duration dependence effects can dramatically change the coefficient estimates of the variables that determine the location parameter of the duration distribution