a fast calibrating volatility model for option pricing abstract in this paper we propose a new random volatility model where the volatility has a deterministic term structure modified by a scalar random variable closed form approximation is derived for european option price using higher order greeks with respect to volatility we show that the calibration of our model is often more than two orders of magnitude faster than the calibration of commonly used stochastic volatility models such as the heston model or bates model on 15 different index option data sets we show that our model achieves accuracy comparable with the aforementioned models at a much lower computational cost for calibration further our model yields prices for certain exotic options in the same range as these two models lastly the model yields delta and gamma values for options in the same range as the other commonly used models over most of the data sets considered our model has a significant potential for use in high frequency derivative trading

supply side option value further discussion the literature on benefit cost analysis under uncertainty has devoted considerable attention to identifying conditions under which the sign of option value can be determined option value is the difference between an ex ante sure welfare measure based on expected utility functions known as option price and the expected value of welfare measures defined ex post for each state of nature previous investigations have shown that there is limited ability to specify analytically the sign of option value if uncertainty concerns the preferences of individuals then the sign of option value cannot be established without placing restrictions on preferences schmalansee 1972 anderson 1979 smith 1983 however bishop 1982 has demonstrated that if the uncertainty concerns the supply of the good in question with certain demand for the good then the sign of option value ov may be positive see also brookshire eubanks and randall 1983 since many valuation situations involve supply side risk bishop s discovery is of some rele

option pricing when the variance changes randomly theory estimation and an application in this paper we examine the pricing of european call options on stocks that have vari ance rates that change randomly we study continuous time diffusion processes for the stock return and the standard deviation parameter and we find that one must use the stock and two options to form a riskless hedge the riskless hedge does not lead to a unique option pricing function because the random standard deviation is not a traded security one must appeal to an equilibrium asset pricing model to derive a unique option pricing function in general the option price depends on the risk premium associated with the random standard deviation we find that the problem can be simplified by assuming that volatility risk can be diversified away and that changes in volatility are uncorrelated with the stock return the resulting solution is an integral ofthe black scholes formula and the distribution function for the variance of the stock price we show that accurate option prices can be computed via monte carlo simulations and we apply the model to a set of actual prices

variance risk premium dynamics the role of jumps using high frequency stock market data and synthetic variance swap rates this paper identifles and investigates the temporal variation in the market variance risk premium the variance risk is manifest in two salient features of flnancial returns stochastic volatility and jumps the pricing of these two separate components is analyzed in a general semiparametric framework the key empirical results imply that investors fears of future jumps are especially sensitive to recent jump activity and that their willingness to pay for protection against jumps increase signiflcantly immediately after the occurrence of jumps this in turn suggests that time varying risk aversion as previously documented in the literature is primarily driven by large or extreme market moves the dynamics of risk neutral jump intensity extracted from deep out of the money put options conflrms these flndings jel c51 c52 g12 g13

what type of process underlies options a simple robust test we develop a simple robust method to distinguish the presence of continuous and discontinuous components in the price of an asset underlying options our method examines the prices of at the money and out of the money options as the option s time to maturity approaches zero we show that these prices converge to zero at speeds that depend upon whether the underlying asset price process is purely continuous purely discontinuous or a combination of both we apply the method to s p 500 index options and nd the existence of both a continuous component and a jump component in the index to effectively price or hedge derivative securities or to understand the behavior of nancial asset prices in general it is important to know if they are best modeled using a purely continuous process pc a pure jump process pj or a combination of both cj we develop a method to distinguish between these possibilities using options written on the asset in question speci cally we examine the market prices of at the money atm and out of the money otm options as the option s maturity date approaches the valuation date while the prices of all atm and otm options converge to zero as the time to maturity approaches zero our theoretical work shows that the speed of convergence diiers across the three possibilities pc pj or cj we can thus identify the type of an asset price process by examining the convergence speeds of these option prices the simplest approach for determining the type of process governing an asset price is to examine the time series of asset prices directly however the discretely sampled paths from the three types of processes look very similar unless the sampling frequency is extremely high furthermore increasing the sampling frequency introduces market microstructure eiects since our method does not examine the sample path of the underlying asset directly it circumvents these di culties our method is able to distinguish the type of process governing the price of an asset because diierent types of processes have dramatically diierent implications

understanding hurricane evacuation decisions under contingent scenarios a stated preference approach we conduct a stated preference analysis to understand the factors that individual households take into consideration to evacuate during hurricanes in designing the contingent scenarios for evacuation we randomly assign varying levels of hurricane characteristics wind speed lead time for landfall and the height of storm surge combined with different types of emergency management options voluntary versus mandatory evacuation order and a voucher with varying amounts to cover evacuation expenses findings indicate that individual households respond in a non linear fashion to the intensity of hurricanes when making evacuation decisions respondents are also more likely to evacuate when the storm surge reaches a certain threshold in terms of policy interventions mandatory evacuation orders are more effective to increase the likelihood of evacuation the potential intervention in the form of providing evacuation vouchers to assist households to cover their expenses e g for food water transportation and lodging also seems effective we discuss policy implications of our findings

the pricing of options on assets with stochastic volatilities one option pricing problem that has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of a european call on an asset that has a stochastic volatility this paper examines this problem the option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price it is found that the black scholes price frequently overprices options and that the degree of overpricing increases with the time to maturity one option pricing problem that has hitherto remained unsolved is the pricing of a european call on a stock that has a stochastic volatility from the work of merton 12 garman 6 and cox ingersoll and ross 3 the differential equation that the option must satisfy is known the solution of this differential equation is independent of risk preferences if a the volatility is a traded asset or b the volatility is uncorrelated with aggregate consumption if either of these conditions holds the risk neutral valuation arguments of cox and ross 4 can be used in a straightfoward way this paper produces a solution in series form for the situation in which the stock price is instantaneously uncorrelated with the volatility we do not assume that the volatility is a traded asset also a constant correlation between the instantaneous rate of change of the volatility and the rate of change of aggregate consumption can be accommodated the option price is lower than the blackscholes b s 1 price when the option is close to being at the money and higher when it is deep in or deep out of the money the exercise prices for which overpricing by b s takes place are within about ten percent of the security price this is the range of exercise prices over which most option trading takes place so we may in general expect the b s price to overprice options this effect is exaggerated as the time to maturity increases one of the most surprising implications of this is that if the b s equation is used to determine the implied volatility of a near the money option the longer the time to maturity the lower the implied volatility numerical solutions for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price are also examined the stochastic volatility problem has been examined by merton 13 geske 7 johnson 10 johnson and shanno 11 eisenberg 5 wiggins 16 and

models of stock returns a comparison in this paper a discrete mixture of normal distributions is proposed to explain the observed significant kurtosis fat tails and significant positive skewness in the distribution of daily rates of returns for a sample of common stocks and indexes stationarity tests on the parameter estimates of this discrete mixture of normal distributions model revealed significant differences in the mean estimates that can explain the observed skewness and significant differences in the variance estimates that can explain the observed kurtosis an alternative explanation for the observed fat tails is the symmetric student model the result of a comparison between the models is that the discrete mixture of normal distributions model has substantially more descriptive validity than the student model for many years both financial economists and statisticians have been concerned with the description of stock market returns the form of the distribution of stock returns is a crucial assumption for mean variance portfolio theory theoretical models of capital asset prices and the prices of contingent claims for example understanding the behavior of the variance is essential to option pricing models empirical tests of asset pricing models and the efficient markets hypothesis draw statistical inferences that are also conditional on distributional assumptions the most convenient assumption for financial theory and empirical methods is that the distribution of security rates of return be multivariate normal with parameters that are stationary over time since the normal distribution is stable under addition any arbitrary portfolio of stocks will also be normally distributed with the additional assumption of risk aversion mean variance theory follows furthermore the assumptions of normality and parameter stationarity are required for most of the econometric techniques typically used in empirical research tests of the normality hypothesis on the daily returns of the dow jones industrial stocks by fama 121 revealed more kurtosis fatter tails than that predicted from a sample of independent and identically distributed normal variates fama concluded from this evidence that the distribution of price changes conforms better to the stable paretian distribution with characteristic exponent

pricing vxx option with default risk and positive volatility skew abstract this paper proposes and makes a comparative study of alternative models for vxx option pricing factors such as mean reversion jumps default risk and positive volatility skew are taken into consideration in particular default risk is characterized by jump to default framework and the positive volatility skew issue is addressed by stochastic volatility of volatility and jumps daily calibration is conducted and comparative study of the models is performed to check whether they properly fit market prices and generate reasonable positive volatility skews and deltas overall jump to default extended lrj model with positive correlated stochastic volatility called jdlrjsv in the paper serves as the best model in all the required aspects

the skew risk premium in the equity index market we develop a new method for measuring moment risk premiums we find that the skew premium accounts for over 40 of the slope in the implied volatility curve in the s p 500 market skew risk is tightly related to variance risk in the sense that strategies designed to capture the one and hedge out exposure to the other earn an insignificant risk premium this provides a new testable restriction for asset pricing models trying to capture in particular disaster risk premiums we base our results on a general trading strategy by replicating contracts that swap implied for realized conditional asset moments

a unified approach to bermudan and barrier options under stochastic volatility models with jumps abstract many financial assets such as currencies commodities and equity stocks exhibit both jumps and stochastic volatility which are especially prominent in the market after the financial crisis some strategic decision making problems also involve american style options in this paper we develop a novel fast and accurate method for pricing american and barrier options in regime switching jump diffusion models by blending regime switching models and markov chain approximation techniques in the fourier domain we provide a unified approach to price bermudan american options and barrier options under general stochastic volatility models with jumps the models considered include heston hull white stein stein scott the 3 2 model and the recently proposed 4 2 model and the hypergeometric model with general jump amplitude distributions in the return process applications include the valuation of discretely monitored contracts as well as continuously monitored contracts common in the foreign exchange markets numerical results are provided to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method

individual option prices for climate change mitigation abstract willingness to pay for climate change mitigation depends on people s perceptions about just how bad things will get if nothing is done individual subjective distributions for future climate conditions are combined with stated choices over alternative climate policies to estimate individual option prices the appropriate ex ante welfare measure in the face of uncertainty for climate change mitigation we find statistically significant sensitivity of estimated option prices to both expected future conditions and uncertainty about future conditions

volatility swaps and volatility options on discretely sampled realized variance abstract volatility swaps and volatility options are financial products written on discretely sampled realized variance actively traded in over the counter markets these products are often priced by continuously sampled approximations to simplify the computations this paper presents an analytical approach to efficiently and accurately price discretely sampled volatility derivatives under a general stochastic volatility model we first obtain an accurate approximation for the characteristic function of the discretely sampled realized variance this characteristic function is then applied to price discrete volatility derivatives through either semi analytical pricing formulae up to an inverse fourier transform or an efficient fourier cosine series method numerical experiments show that our approximation is more accurate in comparison to the approximations in the literature we remark that although discretely sampled variance swaps and options are usually more expensive than their continuously sampled counterparts discretely sampled volatility swaps are more prone to be cheaper than the continuously sampled counterparts an analysis is then provided to explain why this is the case in general for realistic contract specifications and reasonable model parameters

the risk premium that never was a fair value explanation of the volatility spread abstract we present a new framework to investigate the profitability of trading the volatility spread the upward bias on implied volatility as an estimator of future realized volatility the scheme incorporates the first four option implied moments in a growth optimal payoff that is statically replicated using a portfolio of options removing the upward bias on implied volatility worsens the likelihood score of risk neutral densities obtained from s p 500 index options when they are used as forecasts of the underlying index return distribution it also results in negative expected capital growth when they are used in a volatility arbitrage scheme our empirical finding is that the upward bias on implied volatility does not represent a long term return premium rather it is required to mitigate the large losses associated with tail events when trading volatility in options markets

supply uncertainty option price and indirect benefit estimation both the original and many of the subsequent explanations of the concept of option price have been motivated by an assumption of an uncertain supply of the commodity involved 1 consequently it is surprising to find that all of the definitions of option price compare two states of the world which each have known or certain supply conditions paying the option price does not eliminate supply uncertainty as it has been described rather it changes the individual s conditions of access to the good or service from a certainty of no access to a certainty of complete access risk enters the problem only because these analyses assume the individual does not know whether he or she will desire access at the time the payment must be made since the analysis is in terms of planned consumption the reason for this demand uncertainty is sometimes explained by the fact that the consumption must take place in the future when other factors influencing demand may have changed 2 bishop 1982 appears to have been the first to draw attention to this omission of supply uncertainty and proposed a framework without demand uncertainty to demonstrate that there are conditions when option value i e the difference between option price and the expected consumer surplus would be unambiguously positive 3 while there have been a number of theo

normal mixture diffusion with uncertain volatility modelling short and long term smile effects this paper introduces a parameterization of the normal mixture diffusion nmd local volatility model that captures only a short term smile effect and then extends the model so that it also captures a long term smile effect we focus on the binomial nmd parameterization so called because it is based on simple and intuitive assumptions that imply the mixing law for the normal mixture log price density is binomial with more than two possible states for volatility the general parameterization is related to the multinomial mixing law in this parsimonious class of complete market models option pricing and hedging is straightforward since model prices and deltas are simple weighted averages of black scholes prices and deltas but they only capture a short term smile effect where leptokurtosis in the log price density decreases with term in accordance with the stylised facts of econometric analysis on ex post returns of different frequencies and the central limit theorem however the last part of the paper shows that longer term smile effects that arise from uncertainty in the local volatility surface can be modeled by a natural extension of the binomial nmd parameterization results are illustrated by calibrating the model to several euro us dollar currency option smile surfaces

analytical pricing of discrete arithmetic asian options with mean reversion and jumps abstract empirical evidence indicates that commodity prices are mean reverting and exhibit jumps as some commodity option payoffs involve the arithmetic average of historical commodity prices we derive an analytical solution to arithmetic asian options under a mean reverting jump diffusion process the analytical solution is implemented with the fast fourier transform based on the joint characteristic function of the terminal asset price and the realized average value we also examine the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method through numerical studies

pricing and risk management of interest rate swaps this paper reformulates the valuation of interest rate swaps swap leg payments and swap risk measures all under stochastic interest rates as a problem of solving a system of linear equations with random perturbations a sequence of uniform approximations which solves this system is developed and allows for fast and accurate computation the proposed method provides a computationally efficient alternative to monte carlo based valuations and risk measurement of swaps this is demonstrated by conducting numerical experiments and so our method provides a potentially important real time application for analysis and calculation in markets

variance swap with mean reversion multifactor stochastic volatility and jumps abstract this paper examines variance swap pricing using a model that integrates three major features of financial assets namely the mean reversion in asset price multi factor stochastic volatility sv and simultaneous jumps in prices and volatility factors closed form solutions are derived for vanilla variance swaps and gamma swaps while the solutions for corridor variance swaps and conditional variance swaps are expressed in a one dimensional fourier integral the numerical tests confirm that the derived solution is accurate and efficient furthermore empirical studies have shown that multi factor sv models better capture the implied volatility surface from option data the empirical results of this paper also show that the additional volatility factor contributes significantly to the price of variance swaps hence the results favor multi factor sv models for pricing variance swaps consistent with the implied volatility surface

jump and variance risk premia in the s p 500 abstract we analyze the risk premia embedded in the s p 500 spot index and option markets we use a long time series of spot prices and a large panel of option prices to jointly estimate the diffusive stock risk premium the price jump risk premium the diffusive variance risk premium and the variance jump risk premium the risk premia are statistically and economically significant and move over time investigating the economic drivers of the risk premia we are able to explain up to 63 of these variations

generalized risk premia abstract this paper develops an optimal trading strategy explicitly linked to an agent s preferences and assessment of the distribution of asset returns the price of this strategy is a portfolio of implied moments and its expected excess returns naturally accommodate compensation for higher order moment risk variance risk and the equity premium approximate it to first order and it nests cross sectional asset pricing models such as the linear capital asset pricing model capm an empirical study in the us index market compares the investment behavior of an agent with recursive long run risk preferences to one who merely uses an identically independently distributed time series model and takes market prices as given the two agents exhibit very similar behavior during crises and can be distinguished mostly during calm periods

an object oriented framework for valuing shout options on high performance computer architectures abstract a shout option is a financial contract which allows the holder to change the payoff during the lifetime of the contract complex versions of these options are embedded in financial products which offer various types of maturity guarantees such as segregated funds marketed by canadian insurance companies the value of these options can be determined by solving a collection of coupled partial differential equations in this work we develop an object oriented framework for valuing these contracts which is capable of exploiting modern high performance computer architectures we use this framework to study practical aspects of valuing and hedging these contracts

stock price distributions with stochastic volatility an analytic approach we study the stock price distributions that arise when prices follow a diffusion process with a stochastically varying volatility parameter we use analytic techniques to derive an explicit closed form solution for the case where volatility is driven by an arithmetic ornstein ublenbeck or ar1 process we then apply our results to two related problems in the finance literature 1 options pricing in a world of stochastic volatility and 2 the relationship between stochastic volatility and the nature of fat tailes in stock price distributions article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

pricing methods and hedging strategies for volatility derivatives abstract we explore the valuation and hedging of discretely observed volatility derivatives using three different models for the price of the underlying asset geometric brownian motion with constant volatility a local volatility surface and jump diffusion we begin by comparing the effects on valuation of variations in contract design such as the differences between specifying log returns or actual returns and incorporating caps on the level of realized volatility we then focus on the difficulties associated with hedging these products delta hedging strategies are ineffective for hedging volatility derivatives since they require very frequent rebalancing moreover they provide limited protection in the jump diffusion context we study the performance of a hedging strategy for volatility swaps that establishes small fixed positions in vanilla options at each volatility observation

on calibration of stochastic and fractional stochastic volatility models abstract in this paper we study optimization techniques for calibration of stochastic volatility models to real market data several optimization techniques are compared and used in order to solve the nonlinear least squares problem arising in the minimization of the difference between the observed market prices and the model prices to compare several approaches we use a popular stochastic volatility model firstly introduced by heston 1993 and a more complex model with jumps in the underlying and approximative fractional volatility calibration procedures are performed on two main data sets that involve traded dax index options we show how well both models can be fitted to a given option price surface the routines alongside models are also compared in terms of out of sample errors for the calibration tasks without having a good knowledge of the market e g a suitable initial model parameters we suggest an approach of combining local and global optimizers this way we are able to retrieve superior error measures for all considered tasks and models

option pricing with mean reversion and stochastic volatility many underlying assets of option contracts such as currencies commodities energy temperature and even some stocks exhibit both mean reversion and stochastic volatility this paper investigates the valuation of options when the underlying asset follows a mean reverting lognormal process with stochastic volatility a closed form solution is derived for european options by means of fourier transform the proposed model allows the option pricing formula to capture both the term structure of futures prices and the market implied volatility smile within a unified framework a bivariate trinomial lattice approach is introduced to value path dependent options with the proposed model numerical examples using european options american options and barrier options demonstrate the use of the model and the quality of the numerical scheme

free entry and social inefficiency our goal is to provide a simple yet general exposition of the conditions under which the number of entrants in a free entry equilibrium is excessive insufficient or optimal our analysis compares the number of firms that enter a market when there is free entry with the number that would be desired by a social planner who is unable to control the behavior of firms once they are in the market that is we consider the second best problem of choosing the welfare maximizing number of firms while we take as given their noncompetitive behavior after entry we demonstrate that the crucial conditions for establishing the presence of an entry bias can be stated quite simply in terms of the outcome of the postentry game played by entrants in contrast to previous work we do not need to model this postentry game explicitly

conditional choice probability estimation of dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneity we adapt the expectation maximization algorithm to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity into conditional choice probability ccp estimators of dynamic discrete choice problems the unobserved heterogeneity can be time invariant or follow a markov chain by developing a class of problems where the difference in future value terms depends on a few conditional choice probabilities we extend the class of dynamic optimization problems where ccp estimators provide a computationally cheap alternative to full solution methods monte carlo results confirm that our algorithms perform quite well both in terms of computational time and in the precision of the parameter estimates

a framework for dynamic oligopoly in concentrated industries in this article we introduce a new computationally tractable framework for ericson and pakes style dynamic oligopoly models that overcomes the computational complexity involved in computing markov perfect equilibrium mpe first we define a new equilibrium concept that we call moment based markov equilibrium mme in which firms keep track of their own state the detailed state of dominant firms and few moments of the distribution of fringe firms states second we provide guidelines to use mme in applied work and illustrate with an application how it can endogenize the market structure in a dynamic industry model even with hundreds of firms third we develop a series of results that provide support for using mme as an approximation we present numerical experiments showing that mme approximates mpe for important classes of models then we introduce novel unilateral deviation error bounds that can be used to test the accuracy of mme as an approximation in large scale settings overall our new framework opens the door to study new issues in industry dynamics

demand fluctuations in the ready mix concrete industry i investigate the role of demand shocks in the ready mix concrete industry using census data on more than 15 000 plants i estimate a model of investment and entry in oligopolistic markets these estimates are used to simulate the effect of eliminating short term local demand changes a policy of smoothing the volatility of demand has a market expansion effect the model predicts a 39 increase in the number of plants in the industry since bigger markets have both more plants and larger plants a demand smoothing fiscal policy would increase the share of large plants by 20 finally the policy of smoothing demand reduces entry and exit by 25 but has no effect on the rate at which firms change their size

portfolio optimization when asset returns have the gaussian mixture distribution abstract in this paper we consider a portfolio optimization problem where the underlying asset returns are distributed as a mixture of two multivariate gaussians these two gaussians may be associated with distressed and tranquil market regimes in this context the sharpe ratio needs to be replaced by other non linear objective functions which in the case of many underlying assets lead to optimization problems which cannot be easily solved with standard techniques we obtain a geometric characterization of efficient portfolios which reduces the complexity of the portfolio optimization problem

the impact of commissions on home sales in greater boston buying or selling a residential property is one of the most important financial decisions for a large majority of households in the united states in 2007 68 percent of households owned their own home more than a third of national wealth was held in residential real estate and there were 6 4 million sales of existing homes according to estimates from the department of housing and urban development surveys indicate that an overwhelming majority of homes are sold with the aid of a licensed real estate agent or broker according to a report issued in 1983 in the wake of the federal trade commission s investigation of the real estate brokerage industry brokers accounted for the sale of 81 percent of single family homes the national association of realtors nar the largest professional organization of real estate agents in the united states that represents more than half of all licensed agents estimates that nationally almost 80 percent of residential real estate transactions involve a realtor for owners selling their homes this way real estate agents usually bear a large fraction of the costs of marketing a home advertising the home conducting open houses taking potential buyers on visits to the home and negotiating offers households interested in buying a home often solicit the help of an agent to make appointments to visit properties and arrange financing in exchange for their efforts agents are usually compensated with a fixed percentage commission of the sales price split between the buyer s agent and the seller s agent national association of realtors 2007 chang tai hsieh and enrico moretti 2003 if the agents are working for

conflicts between principals and agents evidence from residential brokerage abstract when a homeowner uses an agent to sell his property he may have less information than his agent and be disadvantaged in price setting and negotiating this study examines whether the percentage commission structure in real estate brokerage creates agency problems we investigate whether agents are able to use their information advantage to either sell their own property faster or for a higher price than their clients properties the empirical results confirm our theoretical predictions of agency problems as we find that agent owned houses sell no faster than client owned houses but they do sell at a price premium of approximately 4 5

demand for differentiated durable products the case of the u s computer printer market i introduction this paper aims to provide a theoretical and empirical description of consumer behavior in a dynamic market for differentiated durable goods the computer hardware industry serves as an example of the type of market we consider markets for computer systems and components as well as for many other high technology products exhibit some striking similarities that are of particular concern for an empirical economist as follows products are differentiated in multiple dimensions in addition to price products are durable yielding consumption services over multiple periods product quality rapidly improves over time empirical work on estimating differentiated product demand systems has been dominated by static discrete choice models with random utility see berry levinsohn and pakes 1995 goldberg 1995 and nevo 2001 among others however markets for durable goods exhibit several features at odds with their assumption of myopic consumer behavior first traditional static discrete choice models implicitly assume that consumers participate in the market every period choosing one of the available products or an outside option thus the fraction of consumers who do not buy any product in a given period could only be explained by the high value they assign to the outside alternative for durable goods however purchases are made infrequently and result in a consumer s exiting the market for a significant period of time hence the model needs to account for consumers outflow from the market arising from their purchase decisions second a static framework may give a misleading picture of the aggregate sales time pattern in a dynamic industry in many markets for durable products it is not uncommon to see rapidly improving product quality and falling prices given any reasonable set of consumer preferences over the product characteristics space static discrete choice models for such an industry will tend to predict an upward trend in aggregate sales this fails to account for a variety of patterns commonly seen in the data third the evolution of product quality leads to the possibility of intertemporal demand substitution by forgoing a current purchase the consumer retains the option to buy a potentially better product in the future hence the decision of when to buy may be just as important for consumers as the decision of what to buy this trade off cannot be accounted for in the static framework the purpose of this paper is to remedy these shortcomings of static discrete choice models in durable goods markets with particular attention paid to technological change and the dynamics of new products adoption the paper presents a dynamic model of consumer demand for differentiated durable products that explicitly accounts for consumers expectations of future product quality and consumers outflow from the market that arises endogenously from their purchase decisions in this model the consumer faces a sequence of static discrete choice problems over a non stationary choice set we show that for a subclass of random utility models which include the multinomial logit and the mcfadden 1978 generalized extreme value gev model there exists a scalar valued sufficient statistic that determines the value of the option to postpone the purchase this allows us to model industry evolution over a vastly reduced state space and to formalize the consumer s decision of when to buy as an optimal stopping problem a solution to that problem defines the hazard rate of product adoptions while the nested discrete choice model determines the alternative specific purchase probabilities integrating individual decisions over the population distribution generates rich dynamics of aggregate and product level sales the paper proceeds to present monte carlo evidence that ignoring the time dimension of consumer choice will induce a downward bias in the estimates of consumer preferences over quality sometimes reversing the sign of the coefficients

testing cost inefficiency under free entry in the real estate brokerage industry this article provides an empirical framework for studying entry and cost inefficiency in the real estate brokerage industry we present a structural entry model that exploits individual level data on entry and earnings to estimate potential real estate agents revenues and reservation wages thereby recovering costs of providing brokerage service using u s census data we estimate the model and find strong evidence for cost inefficiency under free entry attributable in particular to wasteful nonprice competition we further use the estimated model to evaluate welfare implications of the rebate bans that currently persist in some u s states supplemental materials are provided online

a closed form garch option valuation model this paper develops a closed form option valuation formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a garch p q process that can be correlated with the returns of the spot asset it provides the first readily computed option formula for a random volatility model that can be estimated and implemented solely on the basis of observables the single lag version of this model contains heston s 1993 stochastic volatility model as a continuous time limit empirical analysis on s p500 index options shows that the out of sample valuation errors from the single lag version of the garch model are substantially lower than the ad hoc black scholes model of dumas fleming and whaley 1998 that uses a separate implied volatility for each option to fit to the smirk smile in implied volatilities the garch model remains superior even though the parameters of the garch model are held constant and volatility is filtered from the history of asset prices while the ad hoc black scholes model is updated every period the improvement is largely due to the ability of the garch model to simultaneously capture the correlation of volatility with spot returns and the path dependence in volatility article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

dynamic link between oil prices and exchange rates a non linear approach abstract we explore the non linear relationship between crude oil prices and exchange rates of major currencies from quantitative and structural perspectives by utilizing bivariate normal mixture model the correlation coefficients between oil prices and exchange rates demonstrate that their dependences typically start from 2004 then dynamically change over time then we investigate whether business cycle and oil price shocks as two possible exogenous factors affect the dependence structure of oil fx linkage we find significant structural heterogeneity during economic expansion while little evidence of heterogeneity in recession this finding provides alternative interpretations for the enhanced dependence between oil prices and exchange rates and generates implications of financialization in commodity market in terms of oil price shocks kilian 2009 the normal mixture model captures significant heterogeneity implying that unstable oil fx dependence structure is frequently associated with oil aggregate demand shocks and oil specific demand shocks with an emphasis on the dynamic weights of two underlying states we interestingly find that structural heterogeneities coincide with a variety of geopolitical and economic events the application of normal mixture not only provide us knowledge of non linear relationship between oil prices and exchange rates but also guidance for investors in risk management and portfolio diversification complementary to the traditional portfolio theory based on normal distribution

an empirical model of firm entry with endogenous product type choices i describe a model of entry with endogenous product type choices these choices are formalized as the outcomes of a game of incomplete information in which rivals differentiated products have nonuniform competitive effects on profits i estimate the model for location choices in the video retail industry using a nested fixed point algorithm solution the results imply significant returns to product differentiation simulations illustrate the tradeoff between demand and intensified competition and the extent to which markets with more scope for differentiation support greater entry

on the number of state variables in options pricing in this paper we investigate the methodological issue of determining the number of state variables required for options pricing after showing the inadequacy of the principal component analysis approach which is commonly used in the literature we adopt a nonparametric regression technique with nonlinear principal components extracted from the implied volatilities of various moneyness and maturities as proxies for the transformed state variables the methodology is applied to the prices of s p 500 index options from the period 1996 2005 we find that in addition to the index value itself two state variables approximated by the first two nonlinear principal components are adequate for pricing the index options and fitting the data in both time series and cross sections

a jump diffusion model for option pricing brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in the black scholes option pricing framework to model the return of assets however two puzzles emerge from many empirical investigations the leptokurtic feature that the return distribution of assets may have a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than those of the normal distribution and an empirical phenomenon called volatility smile in option markets to incorporate both of them and to strike a balance between reality and tractability this paper proposes for the purpose of option pricing a double exponential jump diffusion model in particular the model is simple enough to produce analytical solutions for a variety of option pricing problems including call and put options interest rate derivatives and path dependent options equilibrium analysis and a psychological interpretation of the model are also presented

option pricing under a normal mixture distribution derived from the markov tree model abstract we examine a markov tree mt model for option pricing in which the dynamics of the underlying asset are modeled by a non iid process we show that the discrete probability mass function of log returns generated by the tree is closely approximated by a continuous mixture of two normal distributions using this normal mixture distribution and risk neutral pricing we derive a closed form expression for european call option prices we also suggest a regression tree based method for estimating three volatility parameters and required to apply the mt model we apply the mt model to price call options on 89 non dividend paying stocks from the s p 500 index for each stock symbol on a given day we use the same parameters to price options across all strikes and expires comparing against the black scholes model we find that the mt model s prices are closer to market prices

dynamic product positioning in differentiated product markets the effect of fees for musical performance rights on the commercial radio industry this article predicts how radio station formats would change if as was recently proposed music stations were made to pay fees for musical performance rights it does so by estimating and solving using parametric approximations to firms value functions a dynamic model that captures important features of the industry such as vertical and horizontal product differentiation demographic variation in programming tastes and multi station ownership the estimated model predicts that high fees would cause the number of music stations to fall significantly and quite quickly for example a fee equal to 10 of revenues would cause a 4 6 drop in the number of music stations within 2 1 2 years and a 9 4 drop in the long run the size of the change is limited however by the fact that many listeners particularly in demographics that are valued by advertisers have strong preferences for music programming publication abstract

do real estate brokers add value when listing services are unbundled i introduction real estate brokers typically provide sellers with bundles of services most of which are ostensibly aimed at improving the terms at which homes are sold and helping homeowners find buyers more quickly 1 traditionally access to the multiple listing service mls a pooled database of homes for sale that is owned and operated by an association of local real estate brokers has been an important component of that bundle other components of the traditional brokerage bundle that potentially affect the terms and timing of a sale include market information and recommendations pertaining to the appropriate asking price 2 promotional services preparing a home for sale circulating flyers placing advertisements holding open houses and recommending the home to individual buyers the screening of prospective buyers the facilitation and acceleration of matches between buyers and sellers 3 and assistance with negotiations 4 the object of this paper is to measure the effects of real estate brokerage services provided to sellers other than mls listings on the terms and timing of home sales it is not obvious that sellers benefit from those services on the one hand brokers offer potentially useful knowledge and expertise on the other hand because the relationship between the homeowner and the broker resembles a classical principal agent problem the broker may not deploy services in ways that promote the seller s interests while appropriately structured compensation schemes may alleviate the principal agent problem to some degree see e g the recent survey by miceli pancak and sirmans 2007 significant conflicts remain as levitt and syverson 2008 emphasize an agent has strong incentives to sell the house quickly even at a substantially lower price their empirical analysis shows that homes owned by agents sell for nearly 4 more and stay on the market roughly 9 days longer than other comparable houses similarly rutherford springer and yavas 2005 find that real estate agents receive a premium of 3 0 7 0 when selling their own condominiums in comparison to similar client owned condominiums by waiting longer to sell 5 while those studies shed light on the magnitude of agency costs i e the extent to which the deployment of brokerage services departs from the first best they do not tell us how those costs compare to the benefits flowing from a broker s knowledge and expertise consequently they do not answer the question posed at the outset of this paragraph the importance of the question addressed in this paper is most readily apparent within the context of the recent policy debate over service bundling in real estate brokerage as long as valuable mls listings are bundled with brokerage services homeowners may use brokers even if the agency costs exceed the benefits of brokers knowledge and expertise in that case unbundling would benefit homeowners and promote efficiency in practice a small but growing number of brokers now offer to place clients homes in the mls for a fixed fee 6 yet in many jurisdictions established brokers have resisted pressures to unbundle mls listings from other services in some cases they have pressed for minimum service laws that prevent agents from offering mls only options as of 2007 eight states had such laws in place 7 some states have also adopted licensing requirements that impede the entry of non traditional real estate brokers where such laws are not in force some mlss have adopted their own rules and procedures to prevent or at least discourage unbundling 8 though the internet increasingly provides alternatives to mls databases at least in some jurisdictions the u s federal trade commission observed as recently as november 2009 that t he mls is generally acknowledged to be a superior platform for matching home buyers and sellers 9 thus the practice of bundling mls listings with other real estate brokerage services handicaps homeowners who wish to sell their homes either completely independently for sale by owner or fsbo transactions or without the ancillary services of a listing broker

option value a conceptual overview the importance of nonuser benefits to the process of efficiently allocating natural environments was first emphasized by krutilla 15 a decade and a half ago one of the components of these nonuser benefits is option value originally introduced by weisbrod 23 as relevant for assets that might be difficult to reproduce option value has been the subject of considerable debate perhaps the simplest approach to explaining the meaning of option value is to use an example consider an individual who is uncertain whether he or she will consume the services of a particular asset in the future furthermore assume this individual is also uncertain whether the asset will be available in the future should he

detection and impact of industrial subsidies the case of world shipbuilding this paper provides a model based empirical strategy to i detect the presence and gauge the magnitude of government subsidies and ii quantify their impact on production reallocation across countries industry prices costs and consumer surplus i construct and estimate an industry model that allows for dynamic agents in both demand and supply and apply my strategy to world shipbuilding a classic target of industrial policy i nd strong evidence consistent with china having intervened and reducing shipyard costs by 15 20 corresponding to 5 billion us dollars between 2006 and 2012 the subsidies led to substantial reallocation of ship production across the world with japan in particular losing signi cant market share they also misaligned costs and production while leading to minor surplus gains for shippers

the choice of the distribution of asset returns how extreme value theory can help abstract one of the issues of risk management is the choice of the distribution of asset returns academics and practitioners have assumed for a long time for more than three decades that the distribution of asset returns is a gaussian distribution such an assumption has been used in many fields of finance building optimal portfolio pricing and hedging derivatives and managing risks however real financial data tend to exhibit extreme price changes such as stock market crashes that seem incompatible with the assumption of normality this article shows how extreme value theory can be useful to know more precisely the characteristics of the distribution of asset returns and finally help to chose a better model by focusing on the tails of the distribution an empirical analysis using equity data of the us market is provided to illustrate this point

arbitrage equilibrium with skewed asset returns the quadratic form of the covariance co skewness model by kraus and litzenberger and arbitrage pricing theory are used for an empirical investigation of market equilibrium with skewed seecurity returns empirical tests similar to the ones in black jensen scholes and gibbons are discussed the empirical estimates give some support to the kraus litzenberger hypothesis on skewness preference however there is some evidence that the tested arbitrage equilibrium is not a complete description of security pricing

the costs of free entry an empirical study of real estate agents in greater boston this paper studies the consequences of xed commissions and low entry barriers in greater boston s real estate brokerage industry from 1998 2007 a period with substantial agent turnover we nd that entry is not associated with increased sales probabilities or reduced sales time instead it decreases the market share of experienced agents and reduces average service quality we develop a dynamic empirical model motivated by these patterns to study the extent of ineciency in the current system compared to alternatives to accommodate a large state space we approximate the value function using sieves and impose the bellman equation as an equilibrium constraint if commissions are cut in half there would be 40 fewer agents implying social savings of 23 of industry revenue and the average agent would facilitate 73 more transactions house price appreciation of 50 during our sample period accounts for a 24 increase in the number of agents and a 31 decline in average agent productivity finally improving information about past agent performance can increase productivity and generate signicant social savings

vix derivatives hedging and vol of vol risk we study the empirical hedging performance of alternative vix option pricing models recent advances in the literature find evidence of asymmetric volatility of volatility similar to the leverage effect in equity markets stochastic mean reversion and jumps using such findings in our model framework we show that while sophisticated models have superior pricing performance and can explain a range of stylized facts in the vix derivatives market their hedging performance is inferior to a simple black model hedge we also study the empirical performance of regime dependent hedge ratio adjustments commonly applied in equity markets

the relative performance of real estate marketing platforms mls versus fsbomadison com we compare house sales on a for sale by owner fsbo platform to multiple listing service mls sales and find that fsbo precommission prices are no lower but that fsbo is less effective in terms of time to sell and probability of a sale we do not find direct evidence of the importance of network size as a reason for the lower effectiveness of fsbo we do find evidence of endogenous platform differentiation patient sellers use fsbo while patient buyers transact more often on the mls where they avoid patient sellers we discuss the implications for platform competition two sided markets and welfare

a general framework for discretely sampled realized variance derivatives in stochastic volatility models with jumps abstract after the recent financial crisis the market for volatility derivatives has expanded rapidly to meet the demand from investors risk managers and speculators seeking diversification of the volatility risk in this paper we develop a novel and efficient transform based method to price swaps and options related to discretely sampled realized variance under a general class of stochastic volatility models with jumps we utilize frame duality and density projection method combined with a novel continuous time markov chain ctmc weak approximation scheme of the underlying variance process contracts considered include discrete variance swaps discrete variance options and discrete volatility options models considered include several popular stochastic volatility models with a general jump size distribution heston scott hull white stein stein hypergeometric 3 2 and 4 2 models our framework encompasses and extends the current literature on discretely sampled volatility derivatives and provides highly efficient and accurate valuation methods numerical experiments confirm our findings

improving the numerical performance of static and dynamic aggregate discrete choice random coefficients demand estimation the widely used estimator of berry levinsohn and pakes 1995 p roduces estimates of consumer preferences from a discrete choice demand model with random coefficients market level demand shocks and endogenous prices we derive numerical theory results characterizing the properties of the nested fixed point algorithm used to evaluate the objective function of blp s estimator we discuss problems with typical implementations including cases that can lead to incorrect parameter estimates as a solution we recast estimation as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints which can be faster and which avoids the numerical issues associated with nested inner loops the advantages are even more pronounced for forward looking demand models where the bellman equation must also be solved repeatedly several monte carlo and real data experiments support our numerical concerns about the nested fixed point approach and the advantages of constrained optimization for static blp the constrained optimization approach can be as much as ten to forty times faster for large dimensional problems with many markets

analytical pricing of discretely monitored asian style options theory and application to commodity markets we compute an analytical expression for the moment generating function of the joint random vector consisting of a spot price and its discretely monitored average for a large class of square root price dynamics this result combined with the fourier transform pricing method proposed by carr and madan carr p madan d 1999 option valuation using the fast fourier transform journal of computational finance 2 4 summer 61 73 allows us to derive a closed form formula for the fair value of discretely monitored asian style options our analysis encompasses the case of commodity price dynamics displaying mean reversion and jointly fitting a quoted futures curve and the seasonal structure of spot price volatility four tests are conducted to assess the relative performance of the pricing procedure stemming from our formulae empirical results based on natural gas data from nymex and corn data from cbot show a remarkable improvement over the main alternative techniques developed for pricing asian style options within the market standard framework of geometric brownian motion