to float or to fix evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on growth we study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for a sample of 183 countries over the post bretton woods period using a new de facto classification of regimes based on the actual behavior of the relevant macroeconomic variables in contrast with previous studies we find that for developing countries less flexible exchange rate regimes are associated with slower growth as well as with greater output volatility for industrial countries regimes do not appear to have any significant impact on growth the results are robust to endogeneity corrections and a number of alternative specifications borrowed from the growth literature

measuring movement of incomes we consider a small set of elementary properties for income movement measures and show that there is essentially only one measure that satisfies all of these properties the per capita aggregate change in log incomes we demonstrate next that this movement mobility measure has a number of appealing descriptive and normative properties and provide a formal generalization of our basic characterization theorem drawing from the related literature on poverty measurement finally we present here an empirical application in which we show by using our new measure that there has been a broad based increase in income movement in the united states between the 1970s and 1980s

the economics of the covid 19 pandemic an assessment the covid 19 pandemic has created both a medical crisis and an economic crisis as others have noted we face challenges just as big as those in the spanish flu pandemic and the great depression all at once the tasks facing policy makers are extraordinary many new kinds of intervention are urgently required this issue of the oxford review of economic policy has two objectives the first is to explore these new interventions evaluating their use suggesting how they might be improved and proposing alternatives the second is to show that the challenges facing us are global and will require international cooperation if they are to be dealt with effectively this short introductory essay positions the papers in the issue within an overall conceptual framework with the aim of telling an overarching story about the pandemic

institutional development and bank stability evidence from transition countries g21 p30 p34 p52 abstract this paper takes advantage of the dynamic nature of institutional reforms in transition economies and explores the causal effects of those reforms on bank risk using a difference in difference approach we show that banks financial stability increases substantially after these countries reform their legal insti tutions liberalize banking and restructure corporate governance we also find that the effects of legal and governance reforms on bank risk may critically depend on the progress of banking reforms a further examination of alternative risk measures reveals that the increases in financial stability among banks mainly come from the reduction of asset risk banks tend to have lower roa volatility and fewer nonper forming loans after reforming the institutional environment finally we split our sample into foreign and domestic banks and find that the enhancement of financial stability is more pronounced for domestic banks

corporate governance and the systemic risk a test of bundling hypothesis abstract we provide new evidence that the systemic risk of large banks is higher when the external and internal corporate governance mechanisms complement each other using a sample of large european banks from 2000 to 2016 we examine the relationship between various internal and external corporate governance mechanisms and the level of systemic risk specifically we analyze how monitoring by institutional investors complements or substitutes various board level governance mechanisms in determining systemic risk of a bank our empirical findings show that external institutional ownership and internal board level governance mechanisms complement each other to determine the level of systemic risk of a sample of domestic systemically important banks our results are robust to the alternative systemic risk measures and additional controls we conclude that banks have strategic flexibility in terms of configuring their corporate governance structures to attain similar levels of systemic risk

how important is selection experimental vs non experimental measures of the income gains from migration measuring the gain in income from migration is complicated by non random selection of migrants from the general population making it difficult to obtain an appropriate comparison group of non migrants this paper uses a migrant lottery to overcome this problem providing an experimental measure of the income gains from migration new zealand allows a quota of tongans to immigrate each year with a lottery to choose among the excess number of applicants a unique survey conducted by the authors in these two countries allows experimental estimates of the income gains from migration by comparing the incomes of migrants to those who applied to migrate but whose names were not drawn in the lottery after allowing for the effect of non compliance among some of those whose names were drawn the authors also conducted a survey of individuals who did not apply for the lottery comparing this non applicant group with the migrants enables assessment of the degree to which non experimental methods can provide an unbiased estimate of the income gains from migration they find evidence of migrants being positively selected in terms of both observed and unobserved skills as a result non experimental methods are found to overstate the gains from migration by 9 to 82 percent a good instrumental variable works best while difference in differences and bias adjusted propensity score matching also perform comparatively well

the quantity and quality of life and the evolution of world inequality gdp per capita is usually used to proxy for the quality of life of individuals living in different countries welfare is also affected by quantity of life however as represented by longevity this paper incorporates longevity into an overall assessment of the evolution of cross country inequality and shows that it is quantitatively important the absence of reduction in cross country inequality up to the 1990s documented in previous work is in stark contrast to the reduction in inequality after incorporating gains in longevity throughout the post world war ii period health contributed to reduce significantly welfare inequality across countries this paper derives valuation formulas for infra marginal changes in longevity and computes a full growth rate that incorporates the gains in health experienced by 96 countries for the period between 1960 and 2000 incorporating longevity gains changes traditional results countries starting with lower income tended to grow faster than countries starting with higher income we estimate an average yearly growth in full income of 4 1 percent for the poorest 50 percent of countries in 1960 of which 1 7 percentage points are due to health as opposed to a growth of 2 6 percent for the richest 50 percent of countries of which only 0 4 percentage points are due to health additionally we decompose changes in life expectancy into changes attributable to 13 broad groups of causes of death and three age groups we show that mortality from infectious respiratory and digestive diseases congenital perinatal and ill defined conditions mostly concentrated before age 20 and between ages 20 and 50 is responsible for most of the reduction in life expectancy inequality at the same time the recent effect of aids together with reductions in mortality after age 50 due to nervous system senses organs heart and circulatory diseases contributed to increase health inequality across countries

do depositors punish banks for bad behavior market discipline deposit insurance and banking crises this paper empirically investigates two issues largely unexplored by the literature on market discipline we evaluate the interaction between market discipline and deposit insurance and the impact of banking crises on market discipline we focus on the experiences of argentina chile and mexico during the 1980s and 1990s we find that depositors discipline banks by withdrawing deposits and by requiring higher interest rates deposit insurance does not appear to diminish the extent of market discipline aggregate shocks affect deposits and interest rates during crises regardless of bank fundamentals and investors responsiveness to bank risk taking increases in the aftermath of crises

a study on the relationship between economic inequality and mobility abstract a significant positive relationship between inequality and income mobility key for the theory of political redistribution is found among the growth dispersion and exchange mobility components dispersion is the most important

informal insurance arrangements with limited commitment theory and evidence from village economies recent work on consumption allocations in village economies finds that idiosyncratic variation in consumption is systematically related to idiosyncratic variation in income thus rejecting the hypothesis of full risk pooling we attempt to explain these observations by adding limited commitment as an impediment to risk pooling we provide a general dynamic model and completely characterise efficient informal insurance arrangements constrained by limited commitment and test the model using data from three indian villages we find that the model can fully explain the dynamic response of consumption to income but that it fails to explain the distribution of consumption across households

who wants to redistribute the tunnel effect in 1990s russia abstract support for governmental redistribution tended to be greater for the poor than the rich in a representative sample of russian adults in 1996 however support for redistribution is higher amongst those who expect their welfare to fall and this effect is strongest amongst the currently well off a rising trajectory inhibits demand for redistribution support is also stronger in rural areas amongst those with less schooling those who fear losing their job the elderly and amongst women our results are consistent with albert hirschman s idea of a tunnel effect whereby prospects of mobility in both directions influence demand for governmental redistribution

srisk a conditional capital shortfall measure of systemic risk we introduce srisk to measure the systemic risk contribution of a financial firm srisk measures the capital shortfall of a firm conditional on a severe market decline and is a function of its size leverage and risk we use the measure to study top financial institutions in the recent financial crisis srisk delivers useful rankings of systemic institutions at various stages of the crisis and identifies fannie mae freddie mac morgan stanley bear stearns and lehman brothers as top contributors as early as 2005 q1 moreover aggregate srisk provides early warning signals of distress in indicators of real activity received june 7 2011 accepted april 18 2016 by editor geert bekaert

supply and demand shocks in the covid 19 pandemic an industry and occupation perspective we provide quantitative predictions of first order supply and demand shocks for the us economy associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 covid 19 pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries to analyze the supply shock we classify industries as essential or non essential and construct a remote labor index which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the us congressional budget office compared to the pre covid period these shocks would threaten around 22 per cent of the us economy s gross domestic product gdp jeopardise 24 per cent of jobs and reduce total wage income by 17 per cent at the industry level sectors such as transport are likely to have output constrained by demand shocks while sectors relating to manufacturing mining and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks entertainment restaurants and tourism face large supply and demand shocks at the occupation level we show that high wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply and demand side shocks while low wage occupations are much more vulnerable we should emphasize that our results are only first order shocks we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network

the role of the exchange rate in monetary policy rules for a country that chooses not to permanently fix its exchange rate through a currency board or a common currency or some kind of dollarization the only alternative monetary policy that can work well in the long run is one based on the trinity of i a flexible exchange rate ii an inflation target and iii a monetary policy rule while not often put into this threepart format the desirability of such a monetary policy in an open economy is in my view the clear implication of three corresponding strands of recent monetary research i research on fixed exchange rates regimes including the influential 1995 article the mirage of fixed exchange rates by maurice obstfeld and kenneth rogoff and the many analyses of the breakdown of fixed exchange rate regimes in the late 1990 s ii research on the practical success with inflation targeting by ben bernanke et al 1999 and iii research on the benefits of simple monetary policy rules see e g taylor 1999a this clear policy implication however does not end the debate about how exchange rates should be taken into account in formulating monetary policy even if one excludes capital controls and sterilized exchange market intervention from consideration because they are not effective or attractive ways to de link exchangerate movements from the domestic interest rate a crucial question remains how should the instruments of monetary policy the interest rate or a monetary aggregate react to the exchange rate should policymakers avoid any reaction and focus instead on domestic indicators such as inflation and real gdp or is the rule of thumb that a substantial appreciation of the real exchange rate furnishes a prima facie case for relaxing monetary policy as characterized by obstfeld and rogoff 1995 p 93 a better monetary policy rule or perhaps policymakers should heed the obstfeld rogoff warning that substantial departures from ppp purchasing power parity in the short run and even over decades make such a policy reaction to the exchange rate undesirable more generally if one accepts the trinity concept of monetary policy in an open economy then what is the role of the exchange rate in the monetarypolicy rule

a poor means test econometric targeting in africa proxy means testing is a popular method of poverty targeting with imperfect information in a now widely used version a regression for log consumption calibrates a proxy means test score based on chosen covariates which is then implemented for targeting out of sample in this paper the performance of various proxy means testing methods is assessed using data for nine african countries standard proxy means testing helps filter out the nonpoor but excludes many poor people thus diminishing the impact on poverty some methodological changes perform better with a poverty quantile method dominating in most cases even so either a basic income scheme or transfers using a simple demographic scorecard are found to do as well or almost as well in reducing poverty however even with a budget sufficient to eliminate poverty with full information none of these targeting methods brings the poverty rate below about three quarters of its initial value the prevailing methods are particularly deficient in reaching the poorest

weakly relative poverty prevailing measures of relative poverty are unchanged when all incomes grow or contract by the same proportion this property stems from seemingly implausible assumptions about the disutility of relative deprivation and the cost of social inclusion the authors propose weakly relative lines that relax these assumptions on calibrating our measures to national poverty lines and survey data we find that half the population of the developing world in 2005 lived in poverty only half of whom were absolutely poor the total number of poor rose over 1981 to 2005 despite falling numbers of absolutely poor with sustained economic growth the incidence of relative poverty became less responsive to further growth the number of relatively poor rose just as the numbers of absolutely poor fell

global inequality of opportunity how much of our income is determined by where we live suppose that all people in the world are allocated only two characteristics over which they have almost no control country of residence and income distribution within that country assume further that there is no migration the authors show that more than one half of variability in income of world population classified according to their household per capita in one percent income groups by country is accounted for by these two characteristics the role of effort or luck cannot play a large role in explaining global distribution of income

corporate governance of banks a survey this paper reviews the empirical literature on the corporate governance of banks we start by highlighting the main differences between banks and nonfinancial firms and focus on three characteristics that make banks special i regulation ii the capital structure of banks and iii the complexity and opacity of their business and structure next we discuss the characteristics of corporate governance in banks and how they differ from the governance of nonfinancial firms we then review the evidence on three governance mechanisms i boards ii ownership structures and iii executive compensation our review suggests that some of the empirical regularities found in the literature on corporate governance of nonfinancial institutions such as the positive negative association between board independence size and performance do not hold for banks also existing work provides no conclusive results regarding the relationship between different governance mechanisms and various measures for banks performance we discuss potential explanations for these mixed results

institutional ownership stability and bhc performance abstract in this study the association between performance of bhcs and institutional ownership stability is investigated and contrasted to those found for the less regulated utility and industrial firms in order to determine whether regulation displaces owner monitoring we employ a simultaneous equations model treating firm performance and institutional ownership stability as endogenous variables several results are obtained first bhc performance is positively associated with institutional ownership stability second this association is weaker for bhcs than for comparable utility and industrial firms possibly because of the substitution of regulation for owner monitoring in banking third this association is stronger in the recent deregulated years and for bhcs with lower likelihood of regulatory intervention

poverty and inequality under income and price dispersions many policies simultaneously affect the distribution of prices and incomes in the economy moreover a bias may occur when there is a stochastic relationship between prices and incomes and this relationship is being ignored it is therefore important to dispose of an analytical framework for welfare analysis that could account for changes in this joint distribution how can the joint influences of price and income distributions on poverty and inequality indicators be analysed we offer a method to deal with this problem by using parametric formulae of poverty and inequality measures we propose statistical indicators for the levels variabilities and a statistical link of price indices and nominal living standards these indicators are consistent with an approximation of the problem based on a bivariate lognormal distribution of price indices and nominal living standards our analysis provides hints about the social welfare impact of economic shocks or policies affecting levels variabilities and correlation of prices and incomes intuitive insights are obtained while using arithmetic means and variances instead does not lead to illuminating results the role of price and income variabilities for poverty and inequality is more complex than generally expected with the possibility of several variation regimes empirical investigation of these statistics would guide social policies

community comparisons and subjective well being in a divided society using a south african data set the paper poses six questions about the determinants of subjective well being much of the paper is concerned with the role of relative concepts we find that comparator income measured as average income of others in the local residential cluster enters the household s utility function positively but that income of more distant others others in the district or province enters negatively the ordered probit equations indicate that as well as comparator groups based on spatial proximity race based comparator groups are important in the racially divided south african society it is also found that relative income is more important to happiness at higher levels of absolute income potential explanations of these results and their implications are considered

transitions at different moments in time a spatial probit approach this paper adopts a spatial probit approach to explain interaction effects among cross sectional units when the dependent variable takes the form of a binary response variable and transitions from state 0 to 1 occur at different moments in time the model has two spatially lagged variables one for units that are still in state 0 and one for units that had already transferred to state 1 the parameters are estimated on observations for those units that are still in state 0 at the start of the different time periods whereas observations on units after they transferred to state 1 are discarded just as in the literature on duration modeling furthermore neighboring units that had not yet transferred may have a different impact from units that had already transferred we illustrate our approach with an empirical study of the adoption of inflation targeting for a sample of 58 countries over the period 1985 2008 copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

a class of poverty indices a review of a number of well known poverty indices shows that two axiomatic requirements to a pover ty index are never satisfied simultaneously the choice between these two axioms depends on the nature of the poverty line a class of pov erty indices is developed as an application of the dalton and atkinso n inequality to poverty measurement almost all other poverty indices are seen to be a member of the class the formulation of this class clarifies the basic problems involved in poverty measurement copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

institutional investor stability and crash risk monitoring versus short termism this study tests two opposing views of institutional investors monitoring versus short termism we present evidence that institutional investor stability is negatively associated with 1 year ahead stock price crash risk consistent with the monitoring theory of institutional investors but not the short termism theory our findings are shown to be robust to alternative empirical specifications estimation methods and endogeneity concerns in addition we find that institutional ownership by public pension funds bank trusts investment companies and independent investment advisors is significantly negatively positively associated with future crash risk consistent with findings that pension funds more actively monitor management than other types of institutions

development crime and punishment accounting for the international differences in crime rates abstract this paper analyzes the determinants of the heterogeneity in crime rates across countries focusing on reporting rates and development the behavior of the reporting rate is studied by comparing data from victimization surveys to official records reporting rates are strongly correlated with development richer countries report a higher fraction of crimes the positive relation between development and crime found in previous studies is shown to result from this correlation once the presence of the reporting error is accounted for development does not affect crime reductions in inequality and increases in growth and education are associated with reductions in crime rates

income inequality in the united states 1913 1998 this paper presents new homogeneous series on top shares of income and wages from 1913 to 1998 in the united states using individual tax returns data top income and wages shares display a u shaped pattern over the century our series suggest that the large shocks that capital owners experienced during the great depression and world war ii have had a permanent effect on top capital incomes we argue that steep progressive income and estate taxation may have prevented large fortunes from fully recovering from these shocks top wage shares were flat before world war ii dropped precipitously during the war and did not start to recover before the late 1960s but are now higher than before world war ii as a result the working rich have replaced the rentiers at the top of the income distribution

do women shy away from competition do men compete too much we examine whether men and women of the same ability differ in their selection into a competitive environment participants in a laboratory experiment solve a real task first under a noncompetitive piece rate and then a competitive tournament incentive scheme although there are no gender differences in performance men select the tournament twice as much as women when choosing their compensation scheme for the next performance while 73 percent of the men select the tournament only 35 percent of the women make this choice this gender gap in tournament entry is not explained by performance and factors such as risk and feedback aversion only playa negligible role instead the tournament entry gap is driven by men being more overconfident and by gender differences in preferences for performing in a competition the result is that women shy away from competition and men embrace it

the developing world is poorer than we thought but no less successful in the fight against poverty a new data set on national poverty lines is combined with new price data and almost 700 household surveys to estimate absolute poverty measures for the developing world we find that 25 of the population lived in poverty in 2005 as judged by what poverty typically means in the world s poorest countries this is higher than past estimates substantial overall progress is still indicated the corresponding poverty rate was 52 in 1981 but progress was very uneven across regions the trends over time and regional profile are robust to various changes in methodology though precise counts are more sensitive

individual preferences for political redistribution what drives people s support of governmental reduction of income inequality we employ data from a large international survey in order to evaluate the explanatory power of three competing forces referred to as the homo oeconomicus effect the public values effect and the social rivalry effect the empirical analysis reveals that at the aggregate level all three effects play a significant role in shaping individual preferences for political redistribution attitudes of citizens in formerly socialist countries turn out to differ from those of western citizens in a systematic way 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

informal risk sharing in an infinite horizon experiment author s charness gary b genicot garance abstract this paper presents the first laboratory study of risk sharing without commitment our experiment captures the main features of a simple model of voluntary insurance between two agents in the model two individuals interact over a potential infinite horizon and suffer random income shocks risk averse individuals have incentives to smooth consumption by making transfers to each other these transfers being voluntary only self enforcing risk sharing arrangements are possible transfers can never be so large as to tempt individuals to renege on them this constraint when binding has strong implications for the shape of the constrained optimal risk sharing arrangement in our experiment participants are matched in pairs each period one of them randomly drawn receives a given amount in addition to its regular income after observing both incomes each person in a pair chooses a non negative transfer to make to the other person two features of the experimental design are crucial first it is common information that all pairs will be dissolved at the end of each period with a given probability participants are informed when this occurs and randomly re matched this replicates the effect of infinite horizon and discounting in the model second at the end of the experiment a single period is randomly drawn to count for cash payment this feature is essential for individuals to care about the utility outcome of each period we find evidence generally consistent with risk sharing with most transfers coming from individuals who received h in the period moreover in support of the theory transfers are much higher with a higher continuation probability and they also are highly correlated with the individual s degree of risk aversion however while the model predicts an increase in transfers with ex ante inequality we observe the opposite effect this may reflect considerations of identity or group membership

the curious attraction of wagner s law wagner s law of increasing state activity has recently been subjected to intensive use of recondite econometric testing procedures an examination of the relevant articles reveals ignorance both of wagner s definition of state activity and of his insistence that he was not engaged in prediction consequently the omission of public enterprises contained in wagner s definition leads to a model misspecification and the object of testing his hypothesiss remains obscure

lights camera income illuminating the national accounts household surveys debate gdp per capita and household survey means present conflicting pictures of the rate of economic development in emerging countries one of the areas in which the national accounts household surveys debate is key is the measurement of developing world poverty we propose a data driven method to assess the relative quality of gdp per capita and survey means by comparing them to the evolution of satellite recorded nighttime lights our main assumption which is robust to a variety of specification checks is that the measurement error in nighttime lights is unrelated to the measurement errors in either national accounts or survey means we obtain estimates of weights on national accounts and survey means in an optimal proxy for true income these weights are very large for national accounts and very modest for survey means we conclusively reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is greater than the optimal weight on national accounts and we generally fail to reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is zero additionally we provide evidence that national accounts are good indicators of desirable outcomes for the poor such as longer life expectancy better education and access to safe water and we show that surveys appear to perform worse in developing countries that are richer and that are growing faster therefore we interpret our results as providing support for estimates of world poverty that are based on national accounts jel code i32

poverty economic growth and average exit time a simple transformation of the watts poverty index yields a meaningful measure with appealing ordinal properties and a natural interpretation in terms of the potential for economic growth to alleviate poverty the index is illustrated with data from bangladesh and bolivia 1998 elsevier science s a

how many jobs can be done at home evaluating the economic impact of social distancing measures taken to arrest the spread of covid 19 raises a fundamental question about the modern economy how many jobs can be performed at home we classify the feasibility of working at home for all occupations and merge this classification with occupational employment counts we find that 37 of jobs in the united states can be performed entirely at home with significant variation across cities and industries these jobs typically pay more than jobs that cannot be done at home and account for 46 of all us wages applying our occupational classification to 85 other countries reveals that lower income economies have a lower share of jobs that can be done at home

wealthier is healthier we estimate the effect of income on health using cross country timeseries data on health infant and child mortality and life expectancy and income per capita we use instrumental variables estimates using exogenous determinants of income growth to identify the pure income effect on health isolated from reverse causation or incidental association the long run income elasticity of infant and child mortality in developing countries lies between 0 2 and 0 4 using these estimates we calculate that over a half a million child deaths in the developing world in 1990 alone can be attributed to the poor economic performance in the 1980s

the mdgs and exit time the case of the philippines this article evaluates whether the philippines will be able to halve the incidence of poverty between 1990 and 2015 using the concept of exit time and household level data we find that the philippines as a whole will not be able to comply with target 1 of the millennium development goals mdgs although 15 of its provinces will be able to do so these provinces are closer to manila characterized by higher per capita expenditure growth rates and had lower incidence of poverty in 1988 this suggests the importance of policies to mitigate the regional disparity in achieving the mdgs

the cyclical behaviour of european bank capital buffers using an unbalanced panel of accounting data from 1997 to 2004 and controlling for individual bank costs and risk we find capital buffers of the banks in the eu15 have a significant negative co movement with the cycle for banks in the accession countries there is significant positive co movement capital buffers of commercial and savings banks and of large banks exhibit negative co movement those of co operative and smaller banks exhibit positive co movement speeds of adjustment are fairly slow we interpret these results and discuss policy implications noting that negative co movement of capital buffers will exacerbate the pro cyclical impact of basel ii

central bank reform liberalization and inflation in transition economies an international perspective this paper develops extensive new data on the legal independence of new central banks in 26 former socialist economies fse this data is constructed using the codification system for measuring legal independence developed in cukierman webb and neyapti 1992 and in chapter 19 of cukierman 1992 this makes it comparable with earlier data on central bank independence cbi in the industrial democracies and in non fse developing countries and permits experimentation with alternative indices of cbi like those reviewed in eijffinger and van keulen 1995 the new indices of independence indicate that central bank cb reform in the fse during the nineties has been quite ambitious in spite of the large price shocks induced by the transformation from plan to market reformers in those countries chose to create central banks with levels of legal independence that are substantially higher on average than those of developed economies during the eighties based on data from 1989 through 1998 the evidence in the paper suggests that cbi is unrelated to inflation during the early stages of liberalization but for sufficiently high and sustained levels of liberalization and controlling for variables like price decontrols and wars legal cbi and inflation are significantly and negatively related these findings are consistent with the view that legal cbi no matter how high cannot contain the powerful inflationary impact of wide scale liberalization of formerly controlled prices but once the process of liberalization has gathered sufficient momentum legal independence becomes effective in slowing inflation down and the cumulative liberalization index developed by de melo et al 1996 becomes relatively less important the paper also presents evidence on factors that affect the level of cbi and examines the relation between inflation and cbi within a broader sample composed of the transition and of the developed economies

when information dominates comparison abstract we propose a micro econometric evaluation of the relation between life satisfaction and income distribution using a balanced panel survey of the russian population russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms running from 1994 to 2000 covering 4685 individuals we show that in the context of the very volatile russian environment hirschman s q j econ 87 1973 544 tunnel effect conjecture seems to be confirmed variables reflecting income distribution do not influence satisfaction through social comparisons individuals rather seem to use their informational content in order to form their expectations the reference group s income thereby exerts a positive influence on individual satisfaction which contrasts with other studies on the subject inequality indices do not affect individual welfare

the world distribution of income falling poverty and convergence period we estimate the world distribution of income by integrating individual income distributions for 138 countries between 1970 and 2000 country distributions are constructed by combining national accounts gdp per capita to anchor the mean with survey data to pin down the dispersion poverty rates and head counts are reported for four specific poverty lines rates in 2000 were between one third and one half of what they were in 1970 for all four lines there were between 250 and 500 million fewer poor in 2000 than in 1970 we estimate eight indexes of income inequality implied by our world distribution of income all of them show reductions in global inequality during the 1980s and 1990s

investor protection and corporate governance recent research has documented large differences among countries in ownership concentration in publicly traded firms in the breadth and depth of capital markets in dividend policies and in the access of firms to external finance a common element to the explanations of these differences is how well investors both shareholders and creditors are protected by law from expropriation by the managers and controlling shareholders of firms we describe the differences in laws and the effectiveness of their enforcement across countries discuss the possible origins of these differences summarize their consequences and assess potential strategies of corporate governance reform we argue that the legal approach is a more fruitful way to understand corporate governance and its reform than the conventional distinction between bank centered and market centered financial systems

social mobility and the demand for redistribution the poum hypothesis this paper examines the often stated idea that the poor do not support high levels of redistribution because of the hope that they or their offspring may make it up the income ladder this prospect of upward mobility poum hypothesis is shown to be fully compatible with rational expectations and fundamentally linked to concavity in the mobility process a steady state majority could even be simultaneously poorer than average in terms of current income and richer than average in terms of expected future incomes a e rst empirical assessment suggests on the other hand that in recent u s data the poum effect is probably dominated by the demand for social insurance in the future everyone will be world famous for e fteen minutes andy warhol 1968

capital shortfall a new approach to ranking and regulating systemic risks the financial crisis of 2007 2009 has given way to the sovereign debt crisis of 2010 2012 yet many of the banking issues remain the same we discuss a method to estimate the capital that a financial firm would need to raise if we have another financial crisis this measure of capital shortfall is based on publicly available information but is conceptually similar to the stress tests conducted by us and european regulators we argue that this measure summarizes the major characteristics of systemic risk and provides a reliable interpretation of the past and current financial crises

the globalization of liberalization policy diffusion in the international political economy one of the most important developments over the past three decades has been the spread of liberal economic ideas and policies throughout the world these policies have affected the lives of millions of people yet our most sophisticated political economy models do not adequately capture influences on these policy choices evidence suggests that the adoption of liberal economic practices is highly clustered both temporally and spatially we hypothesize that this clustering might be due to processes of policy diffusion we think of diffusion as resulting from one of two broad sets of forces one in which mounting adoptions of a policy alter the benefits of adopting for others and another in which adoptions provide policy relevant information about the benefits of adopting we develop arguments within these broad classes of mechanisms construct appropriate measures of the relevant concepts and test their effects on liberalization and restriction of the current account the capital account and the exchange rate regime our findings suggest that domestic models of foreign economic policy making are insufficient the evidence shows that policy transitions are influenced by international economic competition as well as the policies of a country s sociocultural peers we interpret the latter influence as a form of channeled learning reflecting governments search for appropriate models for economic policy

systemic risk and bank size abstract in this paper we analyse firm level systemic risk for us and european banks from 2004 to 2012 we observe that common systemic risk indicators are primarily driven by firm size which implies an overriding concern for too big to fail institutions however smaller banks may still pose considerable systemic threats as exemplified by the northern rock debacle in 2007 by introducing a simple standardisation we obtain new risk measures that often prove to be superior predictors of financial distress during the 2007 2009 subprime crisis we conclude that the new measures could be a valuable addition to the existing indicators employed in basel iii to identify systemically important banks

pre tender offer share acquisition strategy in takeovers this paper models the strategic pre tender offer share acquisition problem faced by po tential bidders in takeovers the model provides a rational explanation for the seemingly anomalous empirical evidence that the information about the impending tender offers is not fully conveyed through the potential bidders pre tender offer trades and for the evidence that a large fraction of bidders do not hold any target shares prior to launching the tender offers additional testable implications are also provided

misperceiving interactions among complements and substitutes organizational consequences systems composed of activity choices that interact in nonsimple ways can allow firms to create and sustain a competitive advantage however in complex systems decision makers may not always have a precise understanding of the exact strength of the interaction between activities likewise incentive and accounting systems may lead decision makers to ignore or misperceive interactions this paper studies formally the consequences of misperceiving interaction effects between activity choices our results suggest that misperceptions with respect to complements are more costly than with respect to substitutes as a result firms should optimally invest more to gather information about interactions among complementary activities e g concerning network effects than about interactions among substitute activities similarly the use of division based incentive schemes appears to be more advisable for divisions whose products are substitutes than for divisions that produce complements it is further shown that system fragility is not necessarily positively correlated with the strength ofthe interaction between choices while systems of complements become increasingly fragile as the strength of interaction increases systems of substitutes can become increasingly stable

dynamic poverty decomposition analysis an application to the philippines summary in this paper we propose a new method of poverty decomposition our method remedies the shortcomings of existing methods and has some desirable properties such as time reversion consistency and subperiod additivity our decomposition integrates the existing methods of growth redistribution decomposition and sector based decomposition because it allows us to decompose the change in poverty into growth and redistribution components for each group e g regions or sectors in the economy our decomposition works well in cases where only partial data are available for some periods it is also flexible and can be extended to have the following six components population shift within region redistribution between region redistribution nominal growth inflation and methodological change components the empirical application of the six way decomposition to the philippines for the period 1985 2009 shows that important policies for poverty reduction may differ across regions for example the autonomous region in muslim mindanao would need growth enhancing policies whereas eastern visayas would need policies to improve the income distribution our decomposition method has a wide applicability and may complement the poverty profile approach

will covid 19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change the covid 19 crisis is likely to have dramatic consequences for progress on climate change imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current fossil fuel intensive economic system here we survey 231 central bank officials finance ministry officials and other economic experts from g20 countries on the relative performance of 25 major fiscal recovery archetypes across four dimensions speed of implementation economic multiplier climate impact potential and overall desirability we identify five policies with high potential on both economic multiplier and climate impact metrics clean physical infrastructure building efficiency retrofits investment in education and training natural capital investment and clean r d in lower and middle income countries lmics rural support spending is of particular value while clean r d is less important these recommendations are contextualized through analysis of the short run impacts of covid 19 on greenhouse gas curtailment and plausible medium run shifts in the habits and behaviours of humans and institutions

larger board size and decreasing firm value in small firms1 abstract several studies hypothesize a relation between board size and financial performance empirical tests of the relation exist in only a few studies of large u s firms we find a significant negative correlation between board size and profitability in a sample of small and midsize finnish firms finding a board size effect for a new and different class of firms affects the range of explanations for the board size effect

does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries we evaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting in thirteen developing countries that have adopted this policy by the end of 2004 using a variety of propensity score matching methods we show that on average inflation targeting has large and significant effects on lowering both inflation and inflation variability in these thirteen countries however the effectiveness of inflation targeting on lowering inflation is found to be quite heterogeneous the performance of a given inflation targeting regime can be affected by country characteristics such as government s fiscal position central bank s desire to limit the movements of exchange rate its willingness to meet the preconditions of policy adoption and the time length since the policy adoption

a stable international monetary system emerges inflation targeting is bretton woods reversed a stable international monetary system has emerged since the early 1990s a large number of industrial and a growing number of developing countries now have domestic inflation targets administered by independent and transparent central banks these countries place few restrictions on capital mobility and allow their exchange rates to float the domestic focus of monetary policy in these countries does not have any obvious international cost inflation targeters have lower exchange rate volatility and less frequent sudden stops of capital flows than similar countries that do not target inflation inflation targeting countries also do not have current accounts or international reserves that look different from other countries this system was not planned and does not rely on international coordination there is no role for a center country the imf or gold it is durable in contrast to other monetary regimes no country has been forced to abandon an inflation targeting regime succinctly it is the diametric opposite of the post war system bretton woods reversed

an axiomatic characterization of the watts poverty index abstract although the first distribution sensitive decomposable poverty index the watts index has long been neglected by the profession even when it was searching for a decomposable index this neglect is due partly to the lack of an axiomatic characterization for the watts index this paper adopts an axiomatic approach and complements the watts index with such a characterization under a set of reasonable axioms the watts index is the unique index if a poverty index is perceived as the absolute amount of social welfare loss due to poverty the watts index is relatively easy to apply it also satisfies all basic axioms for a good poverty index

global inequality when unequal countries create unequal people abstract current global inequality measures assume that national mean income does not matter to economic welfare at given household income as measured in surveys the paper questions that assumption on theoretical and empirical grounds and finds that prominent stylized facts about global inequality are not robust at one extreme theories of relative deprivation yield nationalistic measures whereby global inequality is average within country inequality which is rising however other theories and evidence point instead to the benefits of living in a richer country parameter values consistent with research on global subjective wellbeing imply higher inequality than prevailing measures though falling since 1990

wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in europe social distancing and lockdown measures taken to contain the spread of covid 19 may have distributional economic costs beyond the contraction of gdp here we evaluate the capacity of individuals to work under a lockdown based on a lockdown working ability index which considers their teleworking capacity and whether their occupation is essential or closed our analysis reveals substantial and uneven potential wage losses across the distribution all around europe and we consistently find that both poverty and wage inequality rise in all european countries under four different scenarios 2 months of lockdown and 2 months of lockdown plus 6 months of partial functioning of closed occupations at 80 70 and 60 of full capacity we estimate for 29 european countries an average increase in the headcount poverty index that goes from 4 9 to 9 4 percentage points and a mean loss rate for poor workers between 10 and 16 2 the average increase in the gini coefficient ranges between 3 5 to 7 3 depending on the scenario considered decomposing overall wage inequality in europe we find that lockdown and social distance measures produce a double process of divergence both inequality within and between countries increase

distributional national accounts methods and estimates for the united states this article combines tax survey and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the united states since 1913 our distributional national accounts capture 100 of national income allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth we estimate the distribution of both pretax and posttax income making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality average pretax real national income per adult has increased 60 from 1980 to 2014 but we find that it has stagnated for the bottom 50 of the distribution at about 16 000 a year the pretax income of the middle class adults between the median and the 90th percentile has grown 40 since 1980 faster than what tax and survey data suggest due in particular to the rise of tax exempt fringe benefits income has boomed at the top the upsurge of top incomes was first a labor income phenomenon but has mostly been a capital income phenomenon since 2000 the government has offset only a small fraction of the increase in inequality the reduction of the gender gap in earnings has mitigated the increase in inequality among adults but the share of women falls steeply as one moves up the labor income distribution and is only 11 in the top 0 1 in 2014

social preferences self interest and the demand for redistribution preferences for redistribution may be influenced by values and beliefs about distributive justice as well as by self interest people may prefer more redistribution to the poor if they believe that poverty is caused by circumstances beyond individual control therefore beliefs about the causes of income may affect demand for redistribution alternatively the effect of these beliefs on redistributive preferences may be spurious if they are correlated with income and self interest is not properly controlled for they may also measure incentive cost concerns using social survey data i find that self interest cannot explain the effect of these beliefs on redistributive preferences 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

poverty rankings using noisy data on living standards abstract a consistent and robust poverty ranking will be unaffected by the omission of random and identically distributed idiosyncratic determinants of individual welfare however ambiguities in ranking due to heterogeneity in error distributions are difficult to resolve on a priori grounds

bank sovereign risk spillovers in the european debt crisis this paper investigates contagion between bank risk and sovereign risk in europe over the period 2006 2011 since this period covers various stages of the banking and sovereign crisis it oers a fertile ground to analyze bank sovereign risk spillovers we de ne contagion as excess correlation i e correlation between banks and sovereigns over and above what is explained by common factors using cds spreads at the bank and at the sovereign level moreover we investigate the determinants of contagion by analyzing bank speci c as well as country speci c variables and their interaction we provide empirical evidence that various contagion channels are at work including a strong home bias in bank bond portfolios using the eba s disclosure of sovereign exposures of banks we nd that banks with a weak capital and or funding position are particularly vulnerable to risk spillovers at the country level the debt ratio is the most important driver of contagion

semi structural models of advertising competition we propose a semi structural discrete choice model that can be used to estimate static or dynamic decision rules it is particularly useful in strategic contexts when games involve a rich set of choices when private information is correlated and when one wants to uncover the effect of historic behavior on for example prices sales and profits we apply our discrete choice estimator to study decision rules for a dynamic game of price and advertising competition and we evaluate the long run consequences of those rules

on the measurement of poverty official statistics in the united states and the united kingdom show a rise in poverty between the 1970 s and the 1980 s but scepticism has been expressed with regard to these findings in particular the methods employed in the measurement of poverty have been the subject of criticism this paper re examines three basic issues in measuring poverty the choice of the poverty line the index of poverty and the relation between poverty and inequality one general theme running through the paper is that there is a diversity of judgments which enter the measurement of poverty and that it is necessary to recognize these explicitly in the procedures adopted there is likely to be disagreement about the choice of poverty line affecting both its level and its structure in this situation we may only be able to make comparisons and not to measure differences and the comparisons may lead only to a partial rather than a complete ordering the first section of the paper discusses the stochastic dominance conditions which allow such comparisons illustrating their application by reference to data for the united states the choice of poverty measure has been the subject of an extensive literature and a variety of measures have been proposed in the second section of the paper a different approach is suggested considering a class of measures satisfying certain general properties and seeking conditions under which all members of the class which includes many of those proposed give the same ranking those sceptical about measures of poverty often assert that poverty and inequality are being confounded the third section of the paper distinguishes four different viewpoints and relates them to theories of justice and views of social welfare

global income distribution from the fall of the berlin wall to the great recession we present an improved panel database of national household surveys between 1988 and 2008 in 2008 the global gini index is around 70 5 having declined by approximately 2 gini points china graduated from the bottom ranks changing a twin peaked global income distribution to a single peaked one and creating an important global median class 90 of the fastest growing country deciles are from asia while almost 90 of the worst performers are from mature economies another winner was the global top 1 hence the global growth incidence curve has a distinct supine s shape with gains highest around the median and top

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed

inequality among world citizens 1820 1992 this paper investigates the distribution of well being among world citizens during the last two centuries the estimates show that inequality of world distribution of income worsened from the beginning of the 19th century to world war ii and after that seems to have stabilized or to have grown more slowly in the early 19th century most inequality was due to differences within countries later it was due to differences between countries inequality in longevity also increased during the 19th century but then was reversed in the second half of the 20th century perhaps mitigating the failure of income inequality to improve in the last decades jel d31 f0 n0 o0

defining poverty lines as a fraction of central tendency we show under lognormality that when the gini coefficient is stable over time defining the poverty line as a fraction of a central tendency of the living standard distribution restricts the evolution of the poverty measures to be stable that is poverty does not change if the gini coefficient does not change moreover when the gini coefficient slightly changes most of the poverty change can be considered a change in inequality then the consequences of using different poverty lines are analysed thus important features in studies of poverty change based on these lines may result from methodological choices rather than from economic mechanisms