edgeworth price cycles cost based pricing and sticky pricing in retail gasoline markets abstract this paper examines dynamic pricing behavior in canadian retail gasoline markets i find three distinct pricing patterns cost based pricing sticky pricing and sharp asymmetric retail price cycles that resemble the edgeworth cycles of maskin and tirole 1988 i use a markov switching regression to estimate the prevalence of the regimes and the structural characteristics of the cycles themselves i find cycles are more prevalent when there are more small firms and are accelerated and amplified with very many small firms in markets with few small firms sticky pricing dominates the findings are consistent with the theory of edgeworth cycles

information and the persistence of private order contract enforcement institutions an experimental analysis abstract we study an experimental market in which some sellers are prone to moral hazard and in which a private order contract enforcement institution exists that can mediate trade and prevent sellers from reneging on their contractual obligations using the institution to resolve the moral hazard problem is costly we demonstrate that in this market the utilization of the private order contract enforcement institution may make public and private market signals uninformative and inhibit learning we study whether this potential information externality can limit adaptation away from the private order institution when it is efficient to do so consistent with theory we find inefficient persistence when the institution is used but by contrast efficient adaptation in other situations providing information to individuals who are using the private order institution allows them to partially adapt

temporary wholesale gasoline price spikes have long lasting retail effects the aftermath of hurricane rita abstract i study u s gasoline prices following hurricane rita to show that short lived geographical differences in the severity of wholesale gasoline price spikes are associated with long lasting geographical differences in retail prices in most u s cities wholesale prices spiked significantly for roughly 2 weeks following the hurricane however in cities where this spike was particularly large retail margins remained higher than in other cities for nearly 2 months high retail margins dissipated more quickly after the hurricane in cities where competition between stations tends to generate cyclical retail price fluctuations independent of wholesale cost movements i discuss why prices may have fallen faster in cities exhibiting retail price cycles and present additional results identifying differences in market characteristics between cities with and without price cycles i find that cycling cities tend to have higher population density and have independent nonrefinery brand stations that are mor

edgeworth price cycles and intertemporal price discrimination in a retail gasoline market exhibiting edgeworth price cycles prices change asymmetrically with many small decreases interrupted by occasional large increases the result is a de facto menu of prices from which consumers can choose based on exactly when they buy this article introduces four classes of purchase timing strategies designed to systematically shift consumer purchases towards the cycle troughs it shows in the study market of toronto canada the monetary gains to consumers from optimized timing strategies are as high as 3 9 markups earned from these consumers fall up to 82 in spite of the gains from timing strategies surprisingly few consumers use them evidence is presented that a main reason is that consumers are not well informed about the cycles policy implications are discussed

the effect of income on subjective well being evidence from the 2008 economic stimulus tax rebates this paper uses tax rebate payments from the 2008 economic stimulus to estimate the effect of a one time change in income on three measures of subjective well being life satisfaction health satisfaction and affect the income effect is identified by exploiting the plausibly exogenous variation in the payment schedule of the rebates using both ordinary least squares and two stage least squares estimators i find that the rebates had a large and positive impact on affect which is explained by a reduction in feelings of stress and worry for life satisfaction and health satisfaction there is weaker evidence of a positive impact

the short term mortality consequences of income receipt many studies find that households increase their co nsumption after the receipt of expected income payments a result inconsistent wit h the life cycle permanent income hypothesis consumption can increase adverse healt h events such as traffic accidents heart attacks and strokes in this pape r we examine the short term mortality consequences of income receipt we find that mortality increases following the arrival of monthly social security payments re gular wage payments for military personnel the 2001 tax rebates and alaska permane nt fund dividend payments the increase in short run mortality is large potential ly eliminating some of the protective benefits of additional income

estimating the effect of income on health and mortality using lottery prizes as an exogenous source of variation in income a vast literature has established a strong positive relation between income and health status and a negative relation with mortality this paper studies the effects of income on health and mortality using only the part of income variation due to a truly exogenous factor monetary lottery prizes of individuals the findings are that higher income causally generates good health and that this effect is of a similar magnitude as when traditional estimation techniques are used a 10 percent income increase improves health by about 4 5 percent of a standard deviation

consumer response to tax rebates many households received income tax rebates in 2001 of 300 or 600 these rebates represented advance payments of the tax cut from the new 10 percent tax bracket based on a survey of a representative sample of households this paper finds that only 22 percent of households receiving the rebate would spent it instead they would either save it or use it to pay off debt this very low rate of spending represents a striking break with past behavior which would have suggested a much higher rate of spending the low spending rate implies that the tax rebate provided a very limited stimulus to aggregate demand this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

retail price cycles and the presence of small firms abstract in many canadian cities retail gasoline prices remain unchanged for weeks at a time while in other cities retail prices cycle increasing sharply and declining slowly in maskin and tirole econometrica 56 1988 571 both price cycles and rigid prices can exist in equilibrium in this article i demonstrate that the existence of these equilibria is dependent on the number of retail outlets operated by the firms constant price equilibria are found to exist only when firms are of similar size however cycle equilibria can be constructed for a wide range of relative sizes

elasticities of demand for gasoline in canada and the united states abstract fluctuations in the world price of oil the concern with greenhouse gas emissions and the efforts to revive the 1997 kyoto protocol have resulted in renewed interest in the estimation of elasticities of demand for gasoline in this paper a complete system of demand equations is estimated including an equation for the demand for gasoline canadian family expenditure famex and united states consumer expenditure cex survey data are used household level data permits estimation of elasticities for various household groups also differences in demand responsiveness to own price and income changes are estimated for different regions in canada and the united states demand is found to be own price and income inelastic on the whole as reported in earlier studies there is also variation in these elasticities across regions of canada and the united states however larger differences are observed with respect to household size and housing tenure than to region of residence

consumer spending and the economic stimulus payments of 2008 abstract we measure the change in household spending caused by receipt of the economic stimulus payments of 2008 using questions added to the consumer expenditure survey and variation from the ran

history s role in coordinating decentralized allocation decisions what causes individual suppliers to allocate goods in such a way that the aggregate allocation satisfies the law of one price a satisfactory answer to this question must confront two related problems equal net prices at all allocations provide no information to suppliers about the quantity to deliver to a specific location and strategic uncertainty makes an observed violation of the law of one price an unreliable indicator of a profit opportunity this paper develops a simple analytical framework to formalize these two problems reviews some solutions found in the literature and reports laboratory evidence on how people solve them in addressing these issues we focus on the role historical prices play in coordinating decentralized allocation decisions

the citizen candidate model an experimental analysis citizen candidate models represent a significant advance in the analysis of public choice they provide added realism to models of endogenous policy formation relate the number of candidates to the benefits and costs associated with electoral competition and support equilibria with differentiated candidate positions even with a multidimensional policy space in this paper experimental methods are utilized to test two of the model s equilibrium predictions the results support the prediction that an increase in the net benefits to winning an election increases the number of citizens entering electoral contests when the net benefits to winning an election are low the results support the prediction that the only candidate has the median preference further the results suggest that when net benefits are high two members of the electorate with preferences close to and symmetric about the median enter the election although convergence to this equilibrium takes time because entry is costly having multiple candidates lowers group payoffs and may be seen as inefficient

cyclic pricing by a durable goods monopolist in the model of this paper a monopoly seller of a durable good holds periodic sales as a means of price discrimination a new cohort of consumers enters the market in each period interested in purchasing the good either immediately or after a delay within each cohort consumers vary in their tastes for the good under broad conditions the seller will vary the price over time in most periods he will charge a price just low enough to sell immediately to consumers with a high willingness to pay periodically however he will drop the price far enough to sell to an accumulated group of consumers with a low willingness to pay

household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001 using questions expressly added to the consumer expenditure survey we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by the 2001 federal income tax rebates and test the permanent income hypothesis we exploit the unique randomized timing of rebate receipt across households households spent 20 to 40 percent of their rebates on nondurable goods during the three month period in which their rebates arrived and roughly two thirds of their rebates cumulatively during this period and the subsequent three month period the implied effects on aggregate consumption demand are substantial consistent with liquidity constraints responses are larger for households with low liquid wealth or low income

sorting in the labor market do gregarious workers flock to interactive jobs this paper tests a central implication of the theory of equalizing differences that workers sort into jobs with different attributes based on their preferences we present evidence from four new time use data sets for the united states and france suggesting that workers who are more gregarious as revealed by their behavior when they are not working tend to be employed in jobs that involve more social interactions we also find that workers report substantially higher levels of job satisfaction and net affect while at work if their jobs entail frequent interactions with coworkers and other desirable working conditions

did the 2008 tax rebates stimulate spending in an effort to bolster economic performance in light of a looming downturn in economic activity on february 13 2008 president george w bush signed the economic stimulus act of 2008 more than two thirds of the 152 billion bill consisted of economic stimulus payments to be sent beginning in may to approximately 130 million households to qualify recipients had to have a valid social security number an income tax liability or at least 3 000 of qualifying income that included earned income and some benefits from social security veterans affairs or railroad retirement and have filed a 2007 federal tax return for the most part those who filed as single individuals received between 300 and 600 while those who filed jointly received between 600 and 1 200 additionally parents with children under 17 who were eligible for a child tax credit and had a social security number received an extra 300 per child the tax rebate phased out at higher levels of income as the payment was reduced by 5 percent of the amount of adjusted gross income over 75 000 for singles or over 150 000 for married couples the treasury remitted payments either by direct deposit mainly in the first half of may or by mail mainly from mid may through mid july the effect of these stimulus payments depends on how much was spent this paper reports new survey evidence on the propensity of consumers to spend the 2008 rebate it also relates the survey evidence to aggregate data and to evidence about spending from the 2001 tax rebate

a theory of dynamic oligopoly ii price competition kinked demand curves and edgeworth cycles we provide game theoretic foundations for the classic kinked demand curve equilibrium and edgeworth cycle we analyze a model in which firms take turns choosing prices the model is intended to capture the idea of reactions based on short run commitment in a markov perfect equilibrium mpe a firm s move in any period depends only on the other firm s current price there are multiple mpe s consisting of both kinked demand curve equilibria and edgeworth cycles in any mpe profit is bounded away from the bertrand equilibrium level we show that a kinked demand curve at the monopoly price is the unique symmetric renegotiation proof equilibrium when there is little discounting we then endogenize the timing by allowing firms to move at any time subject to short run commitments we find that firms end up alternating thus vindicating the ad hoc timing assumption of our simpler model we also discuss how the model can be enriched to provide explanations for excess capacity and market sharing keiiwords tacit collusion markov perfect equilibrium kinked demand curve edgeworth cycle excess capacity market sharing endogenous timing

high frequency quoting short term volatility in bids and offers at subsecond horizons bids and offers in u s equity markets are more volatile than what would be implied by long term fundamentals to assess costs and consequences this paper suggests that traders random delays latencies interact with quote volatility to generate execution price risk and relative latency costs analysis of the behavior of quote setters suggests that this volatility is more likely to arise from recurrent cycles of undercutting similar to the edgeworth cycles found in product markets rather than mixed strategies of limit order placement

the reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates evidence from consumer credit data we use a new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze how consumers responded to the 2001 federal income tax rebates we estimate the monthly response of credit card payments spending and debt exploiting the unique randomized timing of the rebate disbursement we find that on average consumers initially saved some of the rebate by increasing their credit card payments and thereby paying down debt but soon afterward their spending increased counter to the permanent income model spending rose most for consumers who were initially most likely to be liquidity constrained whereas debt declined most so saving rose most for unconstrained consumers

gas wars retail gasoline price fluctuations this paper examines the retail gasoline price fluctuations known as gas wars weekly prices for the los angeles area were examined for the period from january 2 1968 through december 23 1975 the observed fluctuations were remarkably regular and apparently large ly predictable the data appear consistent with the recent game theory model of e maskin and j tirole in which competing firms produce edgeworth cycles by undercutting each other and eventually relenting copyright 1993 by mit press

what do high interest borrowers do with their tax rebate building on prior literature that constrained individuals consume the most out of a tax rebate we study the tradeoffs high interest borrowers face when they received their 2008 tax stimulus checks we find a persistent decline in payday borrowing in the pay cycles that follow the receipt of the tax rebate the reduction in borrowing is a significant fraction of the mean outstanding loan 12 and appears fairly persistent over the time but is moderate in dollar magnitude about 35 relative to the size of the rebate check 600 per person in trying to reconcile this finding with the cost of not retiring expensive payday debt we find substantial heterogeneity across borrowers among individuals that we classify as temptation spenders e g those that use 400 apr loans to buy electronic goods or go on vacation we find no reduction in payday borrowing after the tax rebate is issued but this group represents only a small fraction of payday borrowers a second group for which we find no debt retirement post check is the set of borrowers that appear to use what should be short term payday loans as a long term financing solution we infer that the marginal use of the tax rebate for this group was to deal with regular monthly obligations such as paying down late utility bills or making rent payments

estimates of the economic returns to schooling from a new sample of twins this paper uses a new survey to contrast the wages of genetically identical twins with different schooling levels multiple measurements of schooling levels were also collected to assess the effect of reporting error on the estimated economic returns to schooling the data indicate that omitted ability variables do not bias the estimated return to schooling upward but that measurement error does bias it downward adjustment for measurement error indicates that an additional year of schooling increases wages by 12 to 16 percent a higher estimate of the economic returns to schooling than has been previously found copyright 1994 by american economic association

coordination matching and wages we analyse the coordination problem in the labour market by endogenizing the matching function and the wage share each firm posts a wage to maximize the expected profit anticipating how the wage affects the expected number of applicants in equilibrium workers apply to firms with mixed strategies which generate coordination failure and persistent unemployment we show how the wage share unemployment and the welfare loss from the coordination failure depend on the market tightness and the market size the welfare loss from the coordination failure is as high as 7 5 per cent of potential output jel classification c78 j64 les auteurs analysent le probleme de la coordination dans le marche du travail en endogeneisant la fonction arrimage et la part des revenus qui va aux salaires chaque entreprise definit le niveau de salaire qui maximise ses profits anticipes en tenant compte de l effet de ce niveau de salaire sur le nombre des applications qu elle peut anticiper de meme les travailleurs font application aupres d une entreprise a un salaire donne en tenant compte d une certaine relation d equivalence entre niveau de salaire et probabilite d obtenir l emploi voila qui engendre incoordination et chomage persistant on montre que la part des revenus qui revient aux salaires le niveau de chomage et les pertes de bien etre attribuables au manque de coordination dependent de la taille du marche et du degre de rarete de la main d oeuvre les pertes de bien etre attribuables au manque de coordination correspondent a quelques 7 5 pour cent de la production potentielle

liquidity constraints and consumer bankruptcy evidence from tax rebates abstract we estimate the extent to which legal and administrative fees prevent liquidity constrained households from declaring bankruptcy to do so we study how the 2001 and 2008 tax rebates affected consumer bankruptcy filings we exploit the randomized timing of the rebate checks and estimate that the rebates caused a significant short run increase in consumer bankruptcies in both years with larger effects in 2008 when the rebates were more generous and more widely distributed using hand collected data from individual bankruptcy petitions we document that households that filed shortly after receiving their rebate checks had higher average liabilities and liabilities to income ratios

liquidity economic activity and mortality abstract we document a within month mortality cycle where deaths decline before the first day of the month and spike after the first this cycle is present across a wide variety of causes and demographic groups a similar cycle exists for a range of economic activities suggesting the mortality cycle may be due to short term variation in levels of economic activity we provide evidence that the within month activity cycle is generated by liquidity our results suggest a causal pathway whereby liquidity problems reduce activity which in turn reduces mortality these relationships may help explain the procyclical nature of mortality

the speed of gasoline price response in markets with and without edgeworth cycles retail gasoline prices are known to respond fairly slowly to wholesale price changes this does not appear to be true for markets with edgeworth price cycles recently many retail gasoline markets in the midwestern u s and in other countries have been shown to exhibit price cycles in which competition generates rapid cyclical retail price movements we show that cost changes in cycling markets are passed on 2 to 3 times faster than in markets without cycles we argue that the constant price movement inherent within the edgeworth cycle eliminates price frictions and allows firms to pass on cost fluctuations more easily

is there a daily discount rate evidence from the food stamp nutrition cycle abstract quasi hyperbolic discounting predicts impatience over short run tradeoffs i present a direct non laboratory test of this implication using data on the nutritional intake of food stamp recipients caloric intake declines by 10 to 15 percent over the food stamp month implying a significant preference for immediate consumption these findings constitute a rejection of the permanent income hypothesis and are extremely difficult to reconcile with exponential discounting the data support an explanation based on time preference and reject several alternative explanations including highly elastic intertemporal substitution i explore implications for the optimal timing of transfer payments under alternative assumptions about preferences

mixed strategy in oligopoly pricing evidence from gasoline price cycles before and under a timing regulation this paper studies oligopoly firms dynamic pricing strategies in a gasoline market before and after the introduction of a unique law that constrains firms to set price simultaneously and only once per day the observed gasoline pricing behavior both before and under the law is well captured by the edgeworth price cycle equilibrium in the maskin and tirole dynamic oligopoly model my results highlight the importance of price commitment in tacit collusion i also find evidence that the price leadership outcome under the law is better predicted by mixed strategies play than by alternative hypotheses

an explanation of anomalous behavior in models of political participation this paper characterizes behavior with noisy decision making for models of political interaction characterized by simultaneous binary decisions applications include voting participation games candidate entry the volunteer s dilemma and collective action problems with a contribution threshold a simple graphical device is used to derive comparative statics and other theoretical properties of a quantal response equilibrium and the resulting predictions are compared with nash equilibria that arise in the limiting case of no noise many anomalous data patterns in laboratory experiments based on these games can be explained in this manner

revenue equivalence revisited the conventional wisdom in the auction design literature is that first price sealed bid auctions tend to make more money while ascending auctions tend to be more efficient we re examine these issues in an environment in which bidders are allowed to endogenously choose in which auction format to participate our findings are that more bidders choose to enter the ascending auction than the first price sealed bid auction and this extra entry is enough to make up the revenue difference between the formats consequently we find that both formats raise approximately the same amount of revenue they also generate efficiency levels and bidder earnings that are roughly equivalent across mechanisms though the earnings in the ascending might be slightly higher

retail gasoline price cycles across spatially dispersed gasoline stations abstract studies of volatility in retail gasoline prices have used either weekly averages of the prices at a small subset of stations in a city or daily observations on prices at a small number of stations this paper uses daily observations on station specific prices within a large canadian metropolitan area to address whether weekly average prices or prices for a small number of stations provide an accurate description of pricing in a market with volatility this paper considers whether researchers using restricted data can draw meaningful conclusions about the appropriate theoretical model and the policy response to allegations of anticompetitive behavior

a dynamic model of bertrand competition with entry abstract this paper analyzes a simple repeated game of simultaneous entry and pricing we report a surprising property of the symmetric equilibrium solution if the number of potential competitors is increased above two the market breaks down with higher probability and the competitive outcome becomes less likely more potential competition lowers welfare another bertrand paradox the model can also be applied to auctions to explore whether a revenue maximizing auctioneer should restrict the number of bidders if bidder participation is costly

do retail gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to cost shocks the influence of edgeworth cycles asymmetric price cycles similar to edgeworth cycles are appearing in increasingly many retail gasoline markets in the united states and worldwide the asymmetry in the cycles can give rise to a finding of asymmetric price responses to cost shocks asymmetric passthrough this article estimates asymmetric passthrough for the market of toronto which exhibits cycles and decomposes it into two components that part explainable by the cycles and that part driven by other unknown sources significant asymmetric passthrough is found with increases passed through more quickly than decreases a significant cause of the finding is the presence of the cycles themselves

the assignment of workers to jobs in an economy with coordination frictions this paper studies the assignment of heterogeneous workers to heterogeneous jobs owing to the anonymity of a large labor market workers use mixed strategies when applying for jobs this randomness generates coordination frictions two workers may apply for a particular job whereas an identical job gets no applications the model generates assortative matching with a positive but imperfect correlation between matched workers and firms types it predicts that a worker s wage is increasing in her job s productivity and a firm s profit is increasing in its employees productivity the model also yields a version of the welfare theorems

ultra fast activity and intraday market quality this paper studies the intraday relationship between ultra fast machine driven activity ufa and market quality in automated equity markets we find that higher ufa is associated with lower intraday market quality greater quoted and effective spreads and lower depth this effect is economically significant and robust to different specifications endogeneity tests and alternative measures of ufa our results hold after controlling for volatility periods of unusually high ufa a proxy for quote stuffing and periods where ufa is primarily driven by fleeting orders inside the spread a proxy for spoofing and competition between liquidity providers

speed algorithmic trading and market quality around macroeconomic news announcements this paper documents that speed is crucially important for high frequency trading strategies based on u s macroeconomic news releases using order level data on the highly liquid s p 500 etf traded on nasdaq from january 6 2009 to december 12 2011 we find that a delay of 300 ms or more significantly reduces returns of news based trading strategies this reduction is greater for high impact news and on days with high volatility in addition we assess the effect of algorithmic trading on market quality around macroeconomic news in the minute following a macroeconomic news arrival algorithmic activity increases trading volume and depth at the best quotes but also increases volatility and leads to a drop in overall depth quoted half spreads decrease increase when we measure algorithmic trading over the full top of the order book

mobility costs frictional unemployment and efficiency with imperfect job information flows it is plausible that the distribution of job offerings becomes more attractive when there are more vacancies and more unemployed with word of mouth communication this condition is derived given this condition steady state equilibrium is not efficient with welfare increased by the introduction of unemployment compensation even though all agents are risk neutral in this way workers become more selective in the jobs they accept

learning with fixed rules the minority game abstract this paper gives a critical account of the literature on adaptive behaviour in the minority game a simple congestion game the literature has proposed a model which differs markedly from many standard learning models in that players are endowed with a fixed subset of behavioural rules or response modes which map the observed history to actions these rules need not have a behavioural interpretation or be derived from some form of optimizing behaviour nonetheless this model gives rise to behaviour that is close to equilibrium behaviour at the aggregate level the individual level behaviour predicted by the model seems to capture some aspects of observed experimental behaviour that are difficult to explain using standard models

happiness and time preference the effect of positive affect in a random assignment experiment abstract we conduct a random assignment experiment to investigate whether positive affect impacts time preference where time preference denotes a preference for present over future utility our result indicates that compared to neutral affect mild positive affect significantly reduces time preference over money this result is robust to various specification checks and alternative interpretations of the result are considered our result has implications for the effect of happiness on time preference and the role of emotions in economic decision making in general finally we reconfirm the ubiquity of time preference and start to explore its determinants djel d12 d83 i31