demand estimates for new general aviation aircraft a user cost approach 1988 demand estimates for new general aviation aircraft a user cost approach applied economics vol 20 no 3 pp 315 324

vehicle scrappage and gasoline policy abstract we estimate the sensitivity of scrap decisions to changes in used car values and show how this scrap elasticity produces emissions leakage under fuel efficiency standards a process known as the gruenspecht effect we first estimate the effect of gasoline prices on used vehicle values and scrappage of vehicles with different fuel economies we then estimate the scrap elasticity itself which we find to be 0 7 when applied in a model of fuel economy standards 13 16 percent of the expected fuel savings leak away through the used vehicle market this effect rivals or exceeds the importance of the often cited mileage rebound effect jel h23 l62 l78 q35 q38 q48 q58

new vehicle feebates new vehicle feebate programs encourage improved fleet wide vehicle fuel efficiency yet analyses of these policies have been limited to ad hoc proposals in this paper we exploit an extensive multi year dataset which includes more than 16 million observations to evaluate the welfare implications of a long standing vehicle feebate program in the canadian province of ontario we 1 show that second best optimal feebates can be written as a function of new vehicle pigouvian taxes 2 find that ontario s feebate program was welfare enhancing relative to a no feebate scenario but that a second best optimal benchmark would have yielded additional welfare while reducing fleet wide emissions and 3 find that ontarian consumers responded asymmetrically to fees versus rebates

risk unemployment and the stock market a rare event based explanation of labor market volatility what is the driving force behind the cyclical behavior of unemployment and vacancies what is the relation between job creation incentives of firms and stock market valuations we answer these questions in a model with time varying risk modeled as a small and variable probability of an economic disaster a high probability implies greater risk and lower future growth lowering the incentives of firms to invest in hiring during periods of high risk stock market valuations are low and unemployment rises the model thus explains volatility in equity and labor markets and the relation between the two first draft november 15 2014 kilic mkilic wharton upenn edu wachter jwachter wharton upenn edu we are grateful to andy abel gabriel chodorow reich max croce giuliano curatola zvi eckstein joao gomes urban jermann christian opp sang byung seo ctirad slavik mathieu taschereau dumouchel michael wachter nancy ran xu amir yaron and seminar participants at the wharton school at the trans atlantic doctoral conference at the western finance association meetings and at the safe asset pricing workshop for helpful comments

1 000 cash back the pass through of auto manufacturer promotions automobile manufacturers frequently use promotions involving cash incentives while payments are nominally directed to either customers or dealers the ultimate beneficiary of the promotion depends on the outcome of price negotiation we use program evaluation methods to compare the incidence of these two types of promotions customers obtain 70 to 90 percent of a customer rebate but only 30 to 40 percent of a dealer discount promotion a 500 difference for a typical promotion our leading hypothesis is that pass through rates differ because of information asymmetries customer rebates are well publicized to customers while dealer discount promotions are not

multi resource investment strategies operational hedging under demand uncertainty abstract consider a firm that markets multiple products each manufactured using several resources representing various types of capital and labor and a linear production technology the firm faces uncertain product demand and has the option to dynamically readjust its resource investment levels thereby changing the capacities of its linear manufacturing process the cost to adjust a resource level either up or down is assumed to be linear the model developed here explicitly incorporates both capacity investment decisions and production decisions and is general enough to include reversible and irreversible investment the product demand vectors for successive periods are assumed to be independent and identically distributed the optimal investment strategy is determined with a multi dimensional newsvendor model using demand distributions a technology matrix prices product contribution margins and marginal investment costs our analysis highlights an important conceptual distinction between deterministic and stochastic environments the optimal investment strategy in our stochastic model typically involves some degree of capacity imbalance which can never be optimal when demand is known

fast high precision decision rules for valuing manufacturing flexibility abstract the valuation of flexible manufacturing systems is one of the most frequently undertaken productivity improvement activities in practice the introduction of an fms into industry must be done on the basis of cost justification recently developed techniques for the evaluation of the value of flexibility typically include the computation of stochastic dynamic programs however the computational effort of stochastic dynamic programs grows combinatorially and limits application to real world problems in this contribution we derive fast approximations to the stochastic dynamic program and compare their results to the exact solution the proposed methods show an excellent worst case behavior 1 for a wide range of volatility of the underlying stochastic profit margins and costs for switching the production mode the computational effort is reduced by a factor of more than 200

consumption externalities and monetary policy with limited asset market participation this article explores the interaction between consumption externalities and limited asset market participation lamp in the standard new keynesian model we assess the performance of simple taylor type interest rate rules with respect to a equilibrium determinacy b the model s ability to simultaneously generate output and inflation volatility similar to the pre volcker era and c the model s response to a technology shock we find that when individual preferences are affected by average household consumption aggregate consumption externality stronger externalities increase the range of lamp for which multiple equilibria arise even if the policy rule satisfies the taylor principle the interaction of lamp and externalities can generate vast inflation output relative volatility in line with the one observed in the data in the 1970s according to our analysis consumption externalities also affect the responses of endogenous variables to total factor productivity shocks jel e4 e5

tax policy and aggregate demand management under catching up with the joneses this paper examines the role for tax policies in productivity shock driven economies with catching up with the joneses utility functions the optimal tax policy is shown to affect the economy countercyclically via procyclical taxes i e cooling down the economy with higher taxes when it is overheating in booms and stimulating the economy with lower taxes in recessions to keep consumption up thus models with catching up with the joneses utility functions call for traditional keynesian demand management policies but for rather unorthodox reasons

is there an energy efficiency gap many analysts have argued that energy efficiency investments offer an enormous win win opportunity to both reduce negative externalities and save money this overview paper presents a simple model of investment in energy using capital stock with two types of market failures first uninternalized externalities from energy consumption and second forces such as imperfect information that cause consumers and firms not to exploit privately profitable energy efficiency investments the model clarifies that only if the second type of market failure cannot be addressed directly through mechanisms such as information provision energy efficiency subsidies and standards may be merited this chapter therefore reviews the empirical work on the magnitude of profitable unexploited energy efficiency investments a literature which frequently does not meet modern standards for credibly estimating the net present value of energy cost savings and often leaves other benefits and costs unmeasured these problems notwithstanding recent empirical work in a variety of contexts implies that on average the magnitude of profitable unexploited investment opportunities is much smaller than engineering accounting studies suggest finally there is tremendous opportunity and need for policy relevant research that utilizes randomized controlled trials and quasi experimental techniques to estimate the returns to energy efficiency investments and the welfare effects of energy efficiency programs

fuel prices and new vehicle fuel economy comparing the united states and western europe abstract several recent papers have documented an effect of fuel prices on new vehicle fuel economy in the united states this paper estimates the effect of fuel prices on average new vehicle fuel economy for the eight largest european markets the analysis spans the years 2002 2007 and uses detailed vehicle registration and specification data to control for policies consumer preferences and other potentially confounding factors we find fuel prices to have a statistically significant effect on average new vehicle fuel economy in europe the effect estimated for europe is much smaller than comparable estimates for the united states

entrepreneurial tail risk implications for employment dynamics starting a new business is risky this paper asks how entrepreneurial productivity risk has changed over time in the us and how this has affected employment i estimate this risk using micro data on the size distribution of new businesses and their exit rates the paper distinguishes upside and downside risk and analyzes their effects in a tractable dynamic general equilibrium of entrepreneurship at the heart of the model is the decision of potential entrepreneurs whether to start a new business in the face of uninsurable productivity risk applied to us time series data structural estimates suggest that higher upside risk explains much of the high job creation in the late 1990s over the entire sample period time variation in risk explains 40 to 55 of the variation in employment of new businesses reduced form results show that this relationship is strongest in it related industries counterfactual simulations show that the explanatory power of a model with a single risk factor drops by 30 to 50 compared to the baseline estimates

investment and capacity choice under uncertain demand this paper extends the real options literature by discussing an investment problem where a firm has to determine optimal investment timing and optimal capacity choice at the same time under conditions of irreversible investment expenditures and uncertainty in future demand after the project is installed with a certain maximum capacity this capacity is fixed as an upper boundary to the output and cannot be adjusted later on it turns out that in the framework of this once and for all decision uncertainty in future demand leads to an increase in optimal installed capacity but on the other hand it causes investment to be delayed to an extent that even small uncertainty makes waiting and accumulation of further information the optimal decision for large ranges of demand limiting the capacity which may be installed weakens this extreme effect of uncertainty

searching for hidden costs a technology based approach to the energy efficiency gap in light duty vehicles abstract the benefit cost analysis of standards to reduce vehicle greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy by the u s environmental protection agency epa and the department of transportation dot displays large net benefits from fuel savings for new vehicle buyers this finding points to an energy efficiency gap the energy saving technology provided in private markets appears not to include all the technologies that produce net private benefits the gap exists if the costs of energy saving technologies are lower than the present value of fuel reductions and hidden costs undesirable aspects of the new technologies do not exceed the net financial benefits this study examines the existence of hidden costs in energy saving technologies through a content analysis of auto reviews of model year 2014 vehicles results suggest that it is possible to use fuel saving technologies on vehicles without imposing hidden costs for each technology examined reviews with positive evaluations outnumbered those with negative evaluations evidence is scant of a robust relationship between vehicles use of energy saving technologies and negatively rated operational characteristics such as handling or acceleration results do not provide evidence for hidden costs as the explanation of the efficiency gap for vehicle fuel saving technologies

automobile prices and quality did the gasoline price increases change consumer tastes in the u s a hedonic model of automobile prices that takes gasoline costs into account is developed and used to examine whether gasoline price increases especially those related to the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks changed consumer evaluations of the relative qualities of used cars in the u s during 1970 1981 we test the null hypothesis that the characteristics coefficients remained constant over time it is rejected if gasoline costs are excluded from the model but not if they are included alternative approaches are developed to show that the gasoline price increases alone can explain much of the observed changes in the coefficients

a model of the household s demand for durables and energy using a simple model the effects of the price of energy and wealth on the demand for durables and their utilization are examined under certainty as well as uncertainty this simple model is based on the assumption that the transaction costs involved in replacing the durable before it is obsolete are very high therefore it is possible that at times during the planning horizon the optimal capacity size of the durable may exceed the household s needs the static analysis results in each period depend on whether or not the household uses the durable at its full capacity

pounds that kill the external costs of vehicle weight heavier vehicles are safer for their own occupants but more hazardous for other vehicles simple theory thus suggests that an unregulated vehicle fleet is inefficiently heavy using three separate identification strategies we show that controlling for own vehicle weight being hit by a vehicle that is 1000 pounds heavier generates a 40 50 increase in fatality risk these results imply a total accident related externality that exceeds the estimated social cost of us carbon emissions and is equivalent to a gas tax of 0 97 per gallon 136 billion annually we consider two policies for internalizing this external cost a weight varying mileage tax and a gas tax and find that they are similar for most vehicles the findings suggest that european gas taxes may be much closer to optimal levels than the us gas tax language en

consumer myopia imperfect competition and the energy efficiency gap evidence from the uk refrigerator market abstract the empirical literature on the energy efficiency gap concentrates on demand inefficiencies in the energy using durables markets and finds evidence that consumers underestimate future energy costs when purchasing a new appliance we take a broader view and also consider the impact of imperfect competition using data on the uk refrigerator market 2002 2007 we find that the average energy consumption of appliances sold during this period was only 7 2 higher than what would have been observed under a scenario with a perfectly competitive market and non myopic consumers one reason for this small gap is that market power actually reduces energy use

real wage rigidities and the new keynesian model most central banks perceive a trade off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the gap between output and desired output however the standard new keynesian framework implies no such trade off in that framework stabilizing inflation is equivalent to stabilizing the welfare relevant output gap in this paper we argue that this property of the new keynesian framework which we call the divine coincidence is due to a special feature of the model the absence of nontrivial real imperfections we focus on one such real imperfection namely real wage rigidities when the baseline new keynesian model is extended to allow for real wage rigidities the divine coincidence disappears and central banks indeed face a trade off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the welfare relevant output gap we show that not only does the extended model have more realistic normative implications but it also has appealing positive properties in particular it provides a natural interpretation for the dynamic inflation unemployment relation found in the data

a strategic analysis of flexible manufacturing systems abstract in this paper a game theoretic model is presented by which investment in flexible manufacturing systems fms is analyzed if the investment in this innovative production system is viable due to either revenue enhancements or cost reductions the result is a competition for the first move among similar firms in an oligopolistic industry as a result the schumpeterian hypothesis of investment in a technological innovation occuring within an industry by swarms appears to apply to fms diffusion empirical evidence supporting the results of the theoretical analysis is presented

habit persistence and the long run labor supply standard macroeconomic models possess the undesirable feature that people stop working in the long run assuming standard parameters the neoclassical model predicts that 2 of annual productivity growth leads to a 99 decline in the labor supply after 624 years yet this contradicts the fact that labor hours per capita are relatively stable even over a long period of time this paper shows how internal and external habit persistence each work to stabilize the long run labor supply independent of key parameter choices

what central bankers need to know about forecasting oil prices central banks routinely use short horizon forecasts of the quarterly price of oil in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook we address a number of econometric issues specific to the construction of quarterly oil price forecasts in the united states and abroad we show that quarterly forecasts of the real price of oil from suitably designed vector autoregressive models estimated on monthly data generate the most accurate real time forecasts overall among a wide range of methods including quarterly averages of forecasts based on monthly oil futures prices no change forecasts and forecasts based on regression models estimated on quarterly data

gasoline prices fuel economy and the energy paradox abstract policymakers often assert that consumers undervalue future gasoline costs when they buy automobiles we test this by measuring whether relative prices of vehicles with different fuel economy ratings fully adjust to variation in gasoline prices vehicle prices move as if consumers are indifferent between 1 00 in discounted future gas cost and 0 76 in vehicle purchase price we show how corrections for endogenous market shares and utilization measurement error and different gasoline price forecasts affect the results we also provide unique evidence of sticky information vehicle markets respond to changes in gasoline prices with up to a six month delay

making the implicit explicit a look inside the implicit discount rate implicit discount rates idrs are employed in energy models to capture household investment decisions yet the factors behind the idr and their respective implications for policy making usually remain blurred and fractional the proposed comprehensive framework distinguishes three broad categories of factors underlying the idr for household adoption of energy efficient technologies eets preferences notably over time risk loss debt and the environment predictable ir rational behavior bounded rationality rational inattention behavioral biases and external barriers to energy efficiency existing empirical findings suggest that the factors underlying the idrs that differ across household characteristics and technologies should be accounted for in energy models furthermore the framework allows for a fresh look at the interplay of idrs and policies we argue that a simple observation of high idrs or observing correlations between idrs and socio economic characteristics does not provide guidance for policy making since the underlying sources cannot be identified instead we propose that some of the factors underlying the idr notably external barriers can be changed through directed policy interventions whereas other factors notably preferences and predictable ir rational behavior are innate and can only be taken into account through reactive policy interventions

monetary policy stock prices and consumption externalities abstract we study interest rate rules responding to stock prices in a sticky price sticky wage new keynesian framework subject to consumption externalities for given wage rigidity such rules are beneficial to equilibrium determinacy if households preferences feature sufficiently strong keeping up with the joneses externalities

product line rivalry and market segmentation with an application to automobile optional engine pricing this paper addresses the questions whether and when the pricing practices on base products may differ from those of premium products sold with options or add ons various alternative models are considered a monopoly model a model of brand rivalry with full consumer information and a model of rivalry in which consumers are only well informed about base product prices only the brand rivalry model with limited consumer information predicts that premium products have larger percentage markups than base products provided that brand rivalry is sufficiently intense empirical evidence on base and premium product pricing in the automobile market is consistent with the limited information model and inconsistent with the other two models

learning monetary policy and asset prices this working paper should not be reported as representing the view s of the imf the views expressed in this working paper are those of the author s and do not necessarily represent those of the imf or imf policy working papers describe research in progress by the author s and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

fiscal policy and co2 emissions of new passenger cars in the eu to what extent have national fiscal policies contributed to the decarbonisation of newly sold passenger cars we construct a simple model that generates predictions regarding the effect of fiscal policies on average hbox co 2 emissions of new cars and then test the model empirically our empirical strategy combines a diverse series of data first we use a large database of vehicle specific taxes in 15 eu countries over 2001 2010 to construct a measure for the vehicle registration and annual road tax levels and separately for the hbox co 2 sensitivity of these taxes we find that for many countries the fiscal policies have become more sensitive to hbox co 2 emissions of new cars we then use these constructed measures to estimate the effect of fiscal policies on the hbox co 2 emissions of the new car fleet the increased hbox co 2 sensitivity of registration taxes have reduced the hbox co 2 emission intensity of the average new car by 1 3 partly through an induced increase of the share of diesel fuelled cars by 6 5 percentage points higher fuel taxes lead to the purchase of more fuel efficient cars but higher diesel fuel taxes also decrease the share of more fuel efficient diesel cars higher annual road taxes have no or an adverse effect

sorting in the used car market after the volkswagen emission scandal the disclosure of the vw emission manipulation scandal caused a quasi experimental market shock in the observable quality of vw diesel vehicles we consider a classical model for adverse selection and sorting to derive an empirically testable hypothesis about the impact of observable quality on the supply of used cars we test the hypothesis with data collected from an online car selling platform which reflects about 50 of the german used car market the empirical approach is based on a conditional difference in differences method we find that the supply of used vw diesel vehicles increases after the vw emission scandal this finding is consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model furthermore we find the positive supply effects increase with the probability of manipulation

analysis and algorithm for the optimal investment times of new manufacturing technologies in a duopoly abstract on the basis of a dynamic and non cooperative game theoretic model the optimal timings of investments in new manufacturing technologies nmt is analysed under duopolistic competition non identical incumbents with time proportional demand always wait for some delay to invest in nmt the existence of silent timing equilibrium is addressed subsequently we show that cost reducing nmt diffuse over time within a duopoly the investments in strategic nmt however may be distributed through time or in a swarm economic interpretations of initial options and the comparative statics presented in this paper help decision makers develop strategies and make decisions under the situation they face finally a computational algorithm of optimal timings could verify this analysis and facilitate the real applications of game theoretic models

a large scale test of the effects of time discounting risk aversion loss aversion and present bias on household adoption of energy efficient technologies abstract this paper empirically and jointly analyses the relations between standard time discounting risk aversion loss aversion and present bias and household stated adoption of low to high stake energy efficiency technologies eets light emitting diodes leds energy efficient appliances and retrofit measures the analysis relies on a large representative sample drawn from eight european union countries preferences over time risk and losses were elicited and jointly estimated from participant choices in incentivized context free multiple price list experiments the findings from econometrically estimating eet adoption equations provide some support for the hypothesis that individuals who are more loss averse or more risk averse or who exhibit a lower time discount factor are less likely to have adopted eets yet some of the results significance levels and effect sizes appeared sensitive to the addition of covariates which may be an indication of bad controls finally omitting one or several of the parameters capturing preferences over time risk and losses when estimating the eet adoption equations did not appear to cause omitted variable bias

gasoline prices and the used automobile market a rational expectations asset price approach this paper examines the impact of changes in gasoline price expectations on the market values of used automobiles an asset model of automobile valuation is used to relate year to year changes in market values to changes in the present discounted value of gasoline expenses econometric evidence from data covering the years 1972 through 1981 substantially confirms the hypothesis of the model that a gasoline price shock causes relative price changes across automobile types in proportion to the differences in their rates of fuel consumption

output fluctuations at the plant level this paper examines the short run dynamics of manufacturing costs by detailing how plants in the u s automobile industry change output weekly data show a variety of margins on which firms adjust production these margins which are distinct from the usual factor demand choices differ in their lumpiness their adjustment costs and their variable costs the existence of these margins explains several empirical puzzles of output fluctuations using a theory of the short run dynamic cost function we are able to infer some of the characteristics of the underlying cost function from the dynamic behavior of the different margins

do consumers recognize the value of fuel economy evidence from used car prices and gasoline price fluctuations abstract debate about the appropriate design of energy policy hinges critically on whether consumers might undervalue energy efficiency due to myopia or some other manifestation of limited rationality we contribute to this debate by measuring consumers willingness to pay for fuel economy using a novel identification strategy and high quality microdata from wholesale used car auctions we leverage differences in future fuel costs across otherwise identical vehicles that have different current mileage and therefore different remaining lifetimes by seeing how price differences across high and low mileage vehicles of different fuel economies change in response to shocks to the price of gasoline we estimate the relationship between vehicle prices and future fuel costs our data suggest that used automobile prices move one for one with changes in present discounted future fuel costs which implies that consumers fully value fuel economy

experimental identification of asymmetric information evidence on crop insurance in the philippines abstract i study asymmetric information in crop insurance in the philippines using a two level randomized field experiment and incentivized preference elicitation in this first experimental study of moral hazard in non health insurance preventable damages double on randomly insured plots among farmers with high trust in the insurance provider farmers prefer insurance on plots that are at risk of floods and crop diseases a sign of classic adverse selection and plots that are far away from home a sign of selection on anticipated moral hazard behavior resulting in 72 higher payouts on preferred plots overcoming these challenges requires leveraging new technologies

the demand for cars and the price of gasoline the user cost approach the theory of the user cost of capital is used to estimate the demand for new and used cars in israel the results demonstrate that the price of operating costs must be included in the demand function they also show that the importance of gasoline price increases with engine size income elasticities are higher for new than for old cars and increase with engine size the inevitability of further increases in gasoline prices implies a further reduction in the average size of cars and a possible decline in the number of cars in the economy unless the trend is moderated by an acceleration in economic growth the future of the us auto industry will depend to a large extent on its ability to compete in the small and medium car markets 13 references 3 tables

asset pricing and the propagation of macroeconomic shocks this paper considers the implications of habit formation and financial frictions for the propagation of macroeconomic shocks in a model that is capable of matching asset pricing moments a short lived shock that destroys a small fraction of the economy s stock of pledgeable collateral generates a persistent recession a stock market crash and a flight to safety effect this novel mechanism creates a tight link between the asset pricing implications of macroeconomic models and their ability to propagate and amplify the effects of macroeconomic shocks

temperature shocks and welfare costs abstract this paper examines the welfare implications of rising temperatures using a standard var we empirically show that a temperature shock has a sizable negative and statistically significant impact on tfp output and labor productivity we rationalize these findings within a production economy featuring long run temperature risk in the model macro aggregates drop in response to a temperature shock consistent with the novel evidence in the data such adverse effects are long lasting over a 50 year horizon a one standard deviation temperature shock lowers both cumulative output and labor productivity growth by 1 4 percentage points based on the model we also show that temperature risk is associated with non negligible welfare costs which amount to 18 4 of the agent s lifetime utility and grow exponentially with the size of the impact of temperature on tfp finally we show that faster adaptation to temperature shocks results in lower welfare costs these welfare benefits become substantially higher in the presence of permanent improvements in the speed of adaptation

simpler is better predicting consumer vehicle purchases in the short run abstract when agencies such as the us environmental protection agency epa establish future greenhouse gas emissions standards for new vehicles forecasting future vehicle purchases due to changes in fuel economy and prices provides insight into regulatory impacts we compare predictions from a nested logit model independently developed for us epa to a simple model where past market share predicts future market share using data from model years 2008 2010 and 2016 the simple model outperforms the nested logit model for all goodness of prediction measures for both prediction years including changes in vehicle price and fuel economy increases bias in forecasted market shares this bias suggests price increases are correlated with unobserved increases in vehicle quality changes in preferences or brand specific changes in market size but not cost pass through for 2010 past shares predict better than a nested logit model despite a major shock the economic disruption caused by the great recession observed share changes during this turbulent period may offer upper bounds for policy changes in other contexts the largest observed change in market share across the two horizons is 6 6 for manufacturers in 2016 and 3 4 for an individual vehicle in 2010

one discriminatory rent or double jeopardy multicomponent negotiation for new car purchases about half of new car transactions actually consist of two transactions one in which the customer buys a new car from a dealer and the other in which the customer sells his or her existing car to the dealer as a trade in at most dealerships both the price of the new car and the price of the trade in are negotiated in such negotiations as a general rule car dealers are willing to trade off profits made on the new car versus profits made on the trade in to an economist this suggests that the dealer may see the new car customer as the source of a certain amount of extractable profit one discriminatory rent that can be subdivided into two arbitrary buckets the new car margin and the trade in margin economic models of bargaining tend to use a similar paradigm modeling the amount of total economic surplus created by the transaction and supposing that each party will get a share of that surplus that is determined by the party s bargaining power it is usually recognized that there are multiple price mechanisms that could convey the same division of surplus to the two parties if this is indeed a good description of how new car negotiations unfold then an observer comparing a similar set of transactions should expect new car and trade in profit margins to be negatively correlated the better the deal the customer gets on a new car the less good the deal one should expect the customer to get on the trade in an alternative view of this multicomponent negotiation is that customers or dealers or competition and market structure

the effects of the corporate average fuel efficiency standards in the us this paper examines the effects of the corporate average fuel economy standards cafe on automobile sales prices and fuel consumption first a discrete choice model of automobile demand and a continuous model of vehicle utilization are estimated using micro data from the consumer expenditure survey for 1984 1990 next the demand side model is combined with a model of oligopoly and product differentiation on the supply side with these elements in place the effects of the cafe regulation are assessed through simulations and compared to the effects of alternative policy instruments such as an increase in gasoline tax

market driven automotive industry compliance with fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards analysis based on consumer choice this study explored factors that affect market driven compliance with both corporate average fuel economy cafe and greenhouse gas ghg standards together called the national program in the united states for phase i 2012 2016 and phase ii 2017 2025 we considered a consumer choice based simulation approach using the ma3t model to estimate the market acceptance of fuel efficiency fe technologies and alternative fuel technologies as reflected by new sales of light duty vehicle ldv because both full and extremely low fe valuations are common in the literature we use a moderate assumption of a 10 year perceived vehicle lifetime at a 7 annual discount rate in the baseline and include both extreme views 5 years and 15 years in the sensitivity analysis the study focuses on market driven compliance and therefore excludes manufacturers cross subsidization the model results suggest that the ldv industry is able to comply with both standards even without cross subsidization and with projected high technology cost mainly thanks to the multiple credit programs and technology advancements the compliance robustness while encouraging however is based on moderate market assumptions such as annual energy outlook 2016 reference oil price projection and moderate fe consumer valuation sensitivity analysis results reveal two significant risk factors for compliance low oil prices and consumers fe undervaluation

long term capacity decisions in uncertain markets for advanced manufacturing systems incorporating scope economies abstract by examining the literature in the field of manufacturing flexibility many researchers have located several form of flexibility by distinguishing them into strategic and operational flexibility forms furthermore many measures and design methods have been proposed for flexible manufacturing systems surely scope economies are one of the most important strategic form of flexibility in manufacturing systems and their strategic impact has been acknowledged by the very beginning of the flexible manufacturing era however despite several researches are available to address scope economies measurement and design methodologies very few researches investigate their economic convenience in front of dedicated manufacturing systems depending on the competitive market conditions this paper proposes a theoretical model whose main aim is the general understanding of the convenience conditions of scope economies based manufacturing systems the results of the theoretical model are very interesting because they locate market conditions that make scope economies manufacturing systems less profitable than dedicated manufacturing ones moreover the proposed model sets some general criteria to guide the entrepreneur in making right investment decision regarding this kind of manufacturing investments such results can explain the reason of many failures of flexible manufacturing systems and it suggests the use of this kind of approach to investigate other flexibility forms of manufacturing systems the ultimate goal of this research is the construction of a decision support system for supporting the entrepreneur in making decision on advanced manufacturing systems investment decisions

what do consumers believe about future gasoline prices a full understanding of how gasoline prices affect consumer behavior frequently requires information on how consumers forecast future gasoline prices we provide the first evidence on the nature of these forecasts by analyzing two decades of data on gasoline price expectations from the michigan survey of consumers we find that average consumer beliefs are typically indistinguishable from a no change forecast justifying an assumption commonly made in the literature on consumer valuation of energy efficiency we also provide evidence on circumstances in which consumer forecasts are likely to deviate from no change and on significant cross consumer forecast heterogeneity

tax incidence with endogenous quality and costly bargaining theory and evidence from hybrid vehicle subsidies abstract endogenous quality and bargaining are important features of many markets but are typically omitted from studies of incidence we develop a model with product upgrades and costly bargaining and find that tax rate pass through only partially characterizes the welfare impact of taxation consumers may respond to a tax or subsidy by changing product quality or by changing their bargaining effort we apply the insights of our theory to the study of subsidies for green goods specifically hybrid electric vehicles in canada we utilize highly detailed transaction data and leverage panel variation in subsidies across provinces for identification our baseline estimate finds that prices rises by 570 for every 1000 increase in the subsidy but this pass through estimate substantially underestimates consumer gains because a majority of this price increase 459 80 is due to increased product quality in the form of additional options and features

do energy prices influence investment in energy efficiency evidence from energy star appliances abstract i examine whether electricity prices influence the likelihood that consumers purchase high efficiency appliances by using state year panel data on electricity prices and the proportion of sales of new appliances that involve high efficiency energy star models i find no evidence that electricity prices affect the propensity for consumers to choose high efficiency appliances point estimates are extremely small and precisely estimated the findings suggest that price based energy policies may be limited in the extent to which they increase investment in residential energy efficiency which has been considered one of the lowest cost opportunities for reducing carbon emissions

quality based price discrimination and tax incidence the market for gasoline and diesel cars in europe the existing tax policies toward gasoline and diesel cars in european countries provide a unique opportunity to analyze quality based price discrimination and the implied tax incidence in my econometric framework consumers choose the type of engine based on their annual mileage prices are set by the manufacturers the relative pricing of gasoline and diesel cars appears to be consistent with monopolistic price discrimination effectively segmenting low mileage from high mileage consumers on average about 75 to 90 of the price differentials between gasoline and diesel cars can be explained by markup differences i draw implications for the effectiveness and the revenue effects of tax policy

the demand for cars and gasoline a simultaneous approach abstract this paper develops and estimates a simple model of the demand and supply of cars and gasoline in israel focusing on an individual maximizing his life time utility function under various constraints particular emphasis is placed on the transaction cost in a car purchase and the fact that cars can be characterized by size and age factors which in turn affect running costs and maintenance costs the empirical results show that a change in the price of gasoline and or the price of new cars changes the structure of the stock of cars with respect to engine size

carpooling and driver responses to fuel price changes evidence from traffic flows in los angeles abstract we examine carpooling and driver responses to fuel price changes using a simple theoretical model we show that traffic flows in mainline lanes unambiguously decrease when fuel prices increase and this effect is stronger when the presence of a carpool lane provides a substitute to driving alone in contrast in carpool hov lanes flow can either increase or decrease these predictions are tested using 8 years of traffic flow data for 1700 locations in los angeles in our preferred specification the mean elasticity of flow with respect to fuel price is 0 136 for hov lanes for a 10 increase in fuel price this implies 10 additional carpools per hour 8 8 million per year in additional congestion costs for carpoolers and 11 3 million lower costs for mainline drivers for mainline lanes flow elasticities are 0 083 and 0 050 for highways with and without an hov lane these estimates imply that the mean highway with an hov lane experiences a 30 larger decrease in hourly flow compared to the mean highway without an hov lane flows in hov lanes show an immediate decrease following a price increase but respond positively to price increases over time which suggests time is an important input to carpool formation

rational inattention and energy efficiency abstractthis paper argues that it will often be rational for consumers to pay limited attention to energy efficiency when choosing among energy consuming durable goods like automobiles or home appliances the reason is that the proper valuation of energy efficiency requires time and effort but differences in efficiency across products will rarely be pivotal to choice when consumers have strong preferences regarding other product attributes the paper first explains why proper valuation of efficiency is difficult even in the presence of government energy labels it next develops a model that shows how to value additional information about energy efficiency in a discrete choice context it then uses data on automobiles to show that consumers experience only small welfare losses when forced to choose a car without detailed information about fuel costs finally the paper discusses the implications of rational inattention for both economic research and public policy

the psychological effect of weather on car purchases when buying durable goods consumers must forecast how much utility they will derive from future consumption including consumption in different states of the world this can be complicated for consumers because making intertemporal evaluations may expose them to a variety of psychological biases such as present bias projection bias and salience effects we investigate whether consumers are affected by such intertemporal biases when they purchase automobiles using data for more than 40 million vehicle transactions we explore the impact of weather on purchasing decisions we find that the choice to purchase a convertible or a four wheel drive is highly dependent on the weather at the time of purchase in a way that is inconsistent with classical utility theory we consider a range of rational explanations for the empirical effects we find but none can explain fully the effects we estimate we then discuss and explore projection bias and salience as two primary psychological mechanisms that are consistent with our results jel codes d03 d12

optimal investment in product flexible manufacturing capacity this paper presents a model and an analysis of the cost flexibility tradeoffs involved in investing in product flexible manufacturing capacity flexible capacity provides a firm with the ability to respond to a wide variety of future demand outcomes but at the expense of the increased cost of acquiring flexible manufacturing capacity as compared with dedicated or nonflexible capacity we formulate the product flexible manufacturing capacity investment decision as a two stage stochastic program in the first stage the firm must make its investment decision in manufacturing capacity before the resolution of uncertainty in product demand in the second stage after demand for products are known the firm implements its production decisions constrained by the first stage investments the main contributions of this paper are threefold first we develop a model of the firm s flexible manufacturing investment decision that conceptually captures some of the key characteristics of this complex decision probl

fuel consumption and gasoline prices the role of assortative matching between households and automobiles abstract analyses of policies to reduce gasoline consumption have focused on two effects a compositional effect on the fuel economy of the automotive fleet and a utilization effect on how much people drive however the literature has missed a third effect a matching effect in which policies change how high utilization households are matched to fuel efficient vehicles in equilibrium we show that higher gas prices should lead to stronger assortative matching empirical estimates using us micro level data are consistent with this hypothesis we find a 0 50 increase in the gas tax would reduce us gas consumption by 0 8 through the matching effect alone bringing annual environmental benefits of about 1 7 billion

time diversification definitions and some closed form solutions abstract we establish general conditions under which younger investors should invest a larger proportion of their wealth in risky assets than older ones in the finite horizon dynamic setting we show that such phenomenon known as time diversification can occur in the presence of human wealth guaranteed consumption or mean reverting stock returns we formalize two alternative notions of time diversification commonly confounded in the literature analytic solutions are provided for both time series and cross sectional forms of time diversification to our best knowledge this paper is the first to solve in closed form the hedging demand for a cara investor with inter temporal consumption and a finite horizon facing mean reverting expected returns our results indicate that horizon can have a significant effect on the portfolio demand of a cara investor due to inter temporal hedging

developing an input output activity matrix ioam for environmental and economic analysis of manufacturing systems and logistics chains abstract an activity matrix am shows the activities that transform an organization s inputs into outputs the inputs are the system targets and the materials energy and other resources that are used to achieve these the outputs are the system performance expressed in terms of production quality profit environmental performance waste etc performance may be measured against the financial environmental technical social or other system targets a concurrent enterprise view is used to represent the manufacturing system activities and the paper examines how an am may be used to represent and design systems two kinds of am are examined an unconstrained activity matrix and an input output activity matrix ioam with an unconstrained am the system designer chooses system outputs attributes or requirements intuitively this provides great flexibility and allows e g the social and organisational implications of proposed changes to be investigated the inputs are not formally stated although a systems designer normally focuses on identifying the stages of a product life cycle and analysing their impact on the system s outputs the main emphasis of the paper is on the ioam and its use to represent the transformation of an organization s inputs into outputs the input output representation developed in the paper is used to examine manufacturing and logistics systems first the ioam is used to represent a manufacturing system as one tier of a logistics chain and its performance secondly the ioam representations may be derived for a multi tier system to represent its production economic and environmental performance

examining the bond premium puzzle with a dsge model the basic inability of standard theoretical models to generate a sufficiently large and variable nominal bond risk premium has been termed the bond premium puzzle we show that the term premium on long term bonds in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model used in macroeconomics is far too small and stable relative to the data we find that introducing long memory habits in consumption as well as labor market frictions can help fit the term premium but only by seriously distorting the dsge model s ability to fit other macroeconomic variables such as the real wage therefore the bond premium puzzle remains

explaining asset prices with external habits and wage rigidities in a dsge model in this paper i investigate the scope of a model with exogenous habit formation or catching up with the joneses see abel 1990 to generate the observed equity premium as well as other key macroeconomic facts along the way i derive restrictions for four out of eight parameters for a rather general preference specification of habit formation by imposing consistency with long run growth the leisure share the aggregate frisch elasticity of labor supply the observed risk free rate and the observed sharpe ratio i show that a dsge model with exogenous and lagged habits in both leisure and consumption but not necessarily with additional persistence is well capable of matching the observed asset market facts as well as macro facts provided one allows for moderate real wage stickiness and provided one allows for sufficient curvature on preferences as dictated by the asset market observations without wage stickiness delivery on both the asset pricing implications as well as the macroeconomic implications seems to be much harder

the age specific burdens of short run fluctuations in government spending abstract we study the impact of government spending shocks on the distribution of income and wealth between cohorts and the associated welfare effects in a dynamic stochastic overlapping generations model with two types of households ricardian households and rule of thumb consumers we demonstrate that an unexpected increase in government spending decreases income and wealth inequality in contrast to the conventional wisdom that the financing of government expenditures by debt rather than taxes especially burdens young generations we find that debt financing also harms ricardian households during retirement the crucial element in our analysis is a wealth effect that results from the decline in the price of capital due to higher government debt

the economics of attribute based regulation theory and evidence from fuel economy standards in many countries fuel economy standards mandate that vehicles meet a certain fuel economy but heavier or larger vehicles are allowed to meet a lower standard this has the perverse implication of allowing automakers to meet standards either by improving fuel economy or by increasing weight which lowers fuel economy and increases externalities related to accidents this is but one example of an attribute based regulation in which the regulation imposed on a product depends on both the externality it creates and some other attribute attribute basing potentially motivates rms and individuals to strategically alter the attribute thereby endogenously altering the stringency of the regulation this paper develops a theory of attribute basing to demonstrate the costs and benets of its use the paper then empirically examines the consequences of attribute based fuel economy standards in japan where fuel economy standards are a notched attribute based function of vehicle weight we use cross sectional and panel techniques to demonstrate that attribute based regulation has signicantly altered the distribution of vehicle weight in japan where 10 of vehicles bunch at weight notches for cars whose weight is altered in response to the policy we estimate that the alteration generates a welfare loss from the exacerbation of weight related externalities of 1 500 per unit sold which translates into a 700 million annual loss across the japanese auto market

are consumers myopic evidence from new and used car purchases abstract we investigate whether car buyers are myopic about future fuel costs we estimate the effect of gasoline prices on short run equilibrium prices of cars of different fuel economies we then compare the implied changes in willingness to pay to the associated changes in expected future gasoline costs for cars of different fuel economies in order to calculate implicit discount rates using different assumptions about annual mileage survival rates and demand elasticities we calculate a range of implicit discount rates similar to the range of interest rates paid by car buyers who borrow we interpret this as showing little evidence of consumer myopia jel d12 h25 l11 l62 l71 l81

product differentiation and oligopoly in international markets the case of the u s automobile industry this paper develops and estimates a model of the u s automobile industry on the demand side a discrete choice model is adopted that is estimated using micro data from the consumer expenditure survey the estimation results are used in conjunction with population weights to derive aggregate demand on the supply side the automobile industry is modelled as an oligopoly with product differentiation equilibrium is characterized by the first order conditions of the profit maximizing firms the estimation results are used in counterfactual simulations to investigate two trade policy issues the effects of the ver and exchange rate pass through

the efficiency of used vehicle markets the case of technological obsolescence and differential repair records this paper examines the effect of technological oboslescence differential maintanance expenditures and differential fuel efficiencies on the depreciated value of automobiles our results support the widely held belief that used vehicle markets are efficient we show that the significant decline in the depreciated values of used automobiles is predominantly due to age we also conclude that technological obsolescence causes a once and for all decrease in the depreciated value of used automobiles that for imported vehicle lines differential maintanance expenditures affect depreciated value and that for domestic vehicle lines differential fuel efficiencies impact depreciated value

disasterization a simple way to fix the asset pricing properties of macroeconomic models a central difficulty in economics is to create a model with both good business cycle properties and asset pricing properties i show how to solve this difficulty by a simple portable modeling device the disasterization of models take an economy with good business cycle properties and create a new disasterized economy which is essentially identical to the original one except that disasters can destroy part of the capital stock and productivity in such a disasterized economy asset prices exhibit high and volatile risk premia but macro variables remain unchanged perturbations of this benchmark allow for feedback from finance to macro

intertemporal substitution and new car purchases this article presents a dynamic demand model for motor vehicles this approach accounts for the change in the mix of consumers over the model year and measures consumers substitution patterns across products and time i find intertemporal substitution is significant consumers are more likely to change the timing of their purchase in reaction to a price increase rather than buy another vehicle in the same period further i find automakers use of large cash back rebates at the end of the model year although boosting overall sales induces large numbers of consumers to delay their purchases and so pay lower prices