new venture survival ignorance external shocks and risk reduction strategies abstract although scholars have long recognized the increased mortality risk that new ventures face in terms of a liability of newness most of the discussion around this risk has been in terms of the contextual constraints that new ventures face and the difficulties that managers have in overcoming them this emphasis is in part a reflection of the perils of newness but also stems from the retrospective and aggregate perspective taken by researchers although the macro level perspective of new venture mortality has made a significant contribution to our knowledge of mortality risk patterns there has been little interest in identifying how venture managers can address the risks that all new organizations face we argue that in order to make progress in explaining new venture survival a theoretical model is required that uses a more micro level perspective to explain new venture failure and the flip side new venture survival in this paper we develop such a model we establish a definition of mortality risk and argue that the liability of newness is largely dependent on the degree of novelty ignorance associated with a new venture novelty is viewed in three different dimensions viz to the market to the technology of production and to management novelty to the market concerns the degree to which the customers are uncertain about the new venture novelty in production concerns the extent to which the production technology used by the new venture is similar to the technologies in which the production team has experience and knowledge novelty to management concerns the entrepreneurial team s lack of business skills industry specific information and start up experience we argue that mortality risk increases with the degree of novelty in each dimension and with the number of dimensions in which the new venture is novel we propose that the decline in mortality risk occurs as the venture s novelty in each of the three dimensions is eroded by information search and dissemination processes this allows the new firm to become an established business and explains what we term the evolutionary path of mortality novelty and risk decline monotonically after a period of adolescence as ignorance decays over time due to passive learning we also propose that there is a strategic mortality risk path that reflects the impact of positive and negative shocks shocks are exogenous events that alter the overall degree of novelty at a point in time positive shocks decrease overall novelty while negative shocks increase overall novelty and reversals endogenous actions that increase the overall novelty of the new venture at a point in time on the mortality risk of a new venture if the incidence and effects of these disruptions can be managed then venture managers may be able to mitigate the mortality risk for their venture we argue that risk reduction strategies can be employed most of which impact on one or more of the dimensions of mortality risk in order to increase the firm s chances of survival a series of risk reduction strategies are proposed and their impact on the determinants of mortality risk is considered

micro estimates of public spending demand functions and tests of the tiebout and median voter hypotheses responses to questions given to a random sample of michigan households are used to estimate public spending demand functions while income and price elasticities are similar to those obtained from aggregate data positive income elasticities appear to arise because public services are distributed in a prorich manner a relatively small variance in spending demands among urban and suburban communities in metropolitan areas with substantial public service variety suggests that the tiebout mechanism works this interpretation is supported by the fact that actual spending conforms substantially to desired levels in urban areas but less so in rural areas with little public sector choice

trends and prospects in state and local finance abstract this article reviews trends in the national total of the expenditures of state and local governments for the period of 1929 1982 the principle conclusions are that growth of federal grants has played a significant role in the growth of these expenditures and that even after allowing for the effects of relative price income and federal grants a relatively large unexplained positive residual remains part of this upward drift in expenditures especially for the period of 1950 1970 can be accounted for by the growth in school age population the article ends with a brief discussion of future prospects for subnational governments

how optimal distinctiveness affects new ventures failure risk a contingency perspective abstract in this article we apply the concept of optimal distinctiveness to test whether category spanning has a nonlinear effect on new ventures risk to fail we argue that by being optimally distinct i e by attaining a level of category spanning that allows new ventures to benefit from balancing the competing needs of conformity with and differentiation from competitors new ventures can improve their survival chances in addition we argue that the relevance of optimal distinctiveness varies with a venture s age and a category s density we tested our hypotheses using data from 1668 metal bands that were founded in the united kingdom between 1967 and 2005 the results indicate that optimal distinctiveness is relevant to new ventures failure risk moreover we show that venture age attenuates the relevance of optimal distinctiveness whereas category density strengthens that factor s relevance

unions pension wealth and age compensation profiles this paper examines the effect of unions on both the magnitude and distribution of pension benefits an analysis of experience during 1973 79 under a sample of defined benefit plans shows that beneficiaries retire at an earlier age under collectively bargained plans than under other plans receive larger benefits when they retire and receive larger increases in their benefits after they retire also benefit differentials within and across cohorts of retirees are smaller among union than nonunion beneficiaries the average union nonunion differential is therefore greater in total compensation wages plus pension benefits than in wages alone because pension benefits grow more rapidly with years of service in the nonunion sector however the total compensation differential narrows with age more quickly than the wage differential

do pensions increase the labor supply of older men this paper investigates the relationship between pension coverage and the retirement behavior of older men pensions are associated with higher work involvement for males in their late fifties and early sixties but with lower rates of job holding for those aged 65 69 age of entry into pension employment is shown to be positively correlated with future labor supply when combined with evidence on age specific changes in labor force participation rates this pattern casts doubt on the hypothesis that broadened pension coverage explains a substantial portion of the trend towards earlier male retirement

founder s human capital external investment and the survival of new high technology ventures the effect of founder characteristics in attracting external investment and enhancing survival of new high technology ventures is explored using human capital theory and signalling theory we test the effect of founder characteristics on external investment in and survival of new high technology ventures by tracking a random sample of 193 high technology start ups all participants in the israeli technology incubator program founder s business management expertise and academic status attracted external investment but founder s general technological expertise did not founder s business management expertise and general technological expertise positively affected venture survival but founder s academic status did not possible implications for entrepreneurs investors policy and further research are discussed

changes in pension incentives through time a common assumption in the compensation and retirement literature often necessitated by lack of data is that company sponsored pensions are static institutions the present paper a study of the pension plans at 14 companies for the years 1960 1970 and 1980 challenges this assumption showing that pension schemes are actually quite dynamic over time specifically the authors find that in 1960 all 14 pension plans tended to reward delayed retirement but by 1980 many of the union plans actively encouraged early retirement nonunion plans in the sample however rewarded deferred retirement in all three years the observed changes in pension incentives may have resulted in part from statutory increases in the age at which workers can be forced to retire by an employer

new evidence on pensions social security and the timing of retirement using a unique dataset that links the economic and demographic information of households with the details of their pension formulas i estimate the combined effect of social security and pension benefits on the probability of retirement in a cross section of the population near retirement age the accrual rate of retirement wealth is shown to be a significant determinant of the probability of retirement simulations of extensions in pension coverage comparable to those that occurred in the early postwar period can account for one fourth of the contemporaneous decline in labor force participation rates 1998 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

assessing venture capital investments with noncompensatory behavioral decision models abstract this article examines the prospect of a decision support system for the assessment of venture capital investments it approaches the task of developing decision models from the perspective of the venture capitalist thus venture capitalists have played an active role in defining the predictor variables and in providing data on their own investments venture capitalists and recent research underscore the importance of the entrepreneur in new ventures and the predictor variables selected reflect this bias the literature is now replete with studies demonstrating the superiority of multiattribute actuarial models over human judgment for diverse decision environments ranging from medical science to finance this class of behavioral decision models consists of the simultaneous consideration of several attributes relevant to a decision actuarial models of this kind can be applied to attribute and decision data based on the decision maker s judgments i e expected outcomes before the events transpire termed judgment based models they can also be applied to data on past events or actual outcomes where known termed environment based models again it needs to be emphasized that actuarial models whether based on the decision maker s judgments or on the environment usually outperform the decision maker these general principles are applied here among actuarial models a particular subclass of models is called noncompensatory in these models a low value for one attribute cannot be compensated by a high value for another attribute as an example in selecting a place kicker in football athletic skills other than kicking ability are irrelevant in this study two types of noncompensatory actuarial models conjunctive and disjunctive are used to model both venture capitalists judgments and the environment interviews with venture capitalists reveal that some place strong emphasis on one or two attributes in judging a potential investment this type of decision making behavior indicates a disjunctive decision process at the same time there can be a tendency to ensure that a prospective investment is satisfactory at a minimum the entrepreneur s tenacity courage is a redundant variable that is sublimated in desire for success and enthusiasm capacity for work

a time to grow and a time to die growth and mortality of credit unions in new york city 1914 1990 one vision of organizational evolution suggests that old and large organizations become increasingly dominant over their environment a second suggests that as organizations age they become less able to respond to new challenges in this article the authors investigate which of these visions best characterizes the evolution of state chartered credit unions in new york city from 1914 through 1990 by analyzing the effects of organizational age size and population density on rates of organizational failure and growth the authors find evidence that old and small institutions are more likely to fail while young and small organizations have the highest growth rates

the role of pensions in the labor market a survey of the literature because employer sponsored group pension plans entail agreements between workers and their employers explicitly linking future payment and employment they offer an unusual window into long term employment relationships this review of recent research on pensions explores how pensions influence employee compensation retirement turnover and other matters central to the determination of labor s price and quantity over time the authors also outline some unanswered questions and difficult to reconcile findings because the pension promise involves an explicit and relatively well documented set of statements regarding future contingent payment and employment an examination of the design and operation of employersponsored group pension plans can yield important insights into the long term employment relationship specifically pension research illuminates some important labor market questions in two ways it offers insight into an important element of compensation in its own right and it furthers our understanding of labor markets in which long term

planning for the market business planning before marketing and the continuation of organizing efforts abstract drawing on goal setting theory we argue that writing business plans before undertaking marketing activities should enhance the continuation of venture organizing efforts we examine 223 new venture organizing efforts initiated in the first 9 months of 1998 by a random sample of swedish entrepreneurs and show that those organizing efforts in which entrepreneurs completed business plans before talking to customers and beginning marketing or promotion had a lower hazard of termination than other organizing efforts

do retirement dreams come true the effect of unanticipated events on retirement plans analyzing data from the retirement history study the authors find that the retirement plans of male workers aged 58 63 in 1969 were significantly affected by unanticipated events over the next decade specifically unanticipated increases in social security wealth induced retirement earlier than originally planned as did deterioration in personal health whereas the recession of the 1970s tended to delay retirement this evidence that policy changes do affect retirement behavior in systematic ways provides support for the decision by congress to defer until the turn of the century the application of several important provisions of the 1983 amendments to the social security act

interfirm diversity organizational learning and longevity in global strategic alliances organizational theorists have correctly argued that the emergence and maintenance of robust cooperation between global strategic alliance partners is related to the diversity in the partners characteristics yet previous research has failed to systematically delineate the important dimensions of interfirm diversity and integrate the dimensions into a unified framework of analysis this paper develops a multilevel typology of interfirm diversity and focuses on organizational learning and adaptation as critical processes that dynamically moderate diversity s impact on alliance longevity and effectiveness

new venture strategy and profitability a venture capitalist s assessment abstract this study uses theoretically justified criteria from the industrial organization io strategy literature and applies it to a new domain namely venture capitalists decision making specifically the study investigates the types of information venture capitalists utilize when evaluating new ventures and how venture capitalists use this information to assess likely new venture profitability in the interest of advancing our understanding of the decision making policies of venture capitalists this study addresses many of the limitations of previous research a review of io research suggests important relationships between a number of strategy variables and new venture profitability some of the relationships proposed by io strategy research are contingent in nature the strategy variables and their relationships with profitability are investigated in the domain of venture capitalists decision making individual and aggregate decision making analyses identified those strategy variables criteria venture capitalists utilize in assessing likely new venture profitability namely timing key success factor stability lead time competitive rivalry educational capability industry related competence timing key success factor stability interaction timing lead time interaction and timing educational capability interaction on average the most important criterion for venture capitalists in their assessment of profitability is industry related competence the second tier of importance is competitive rivalry timing and educational capability the third tier of importance is lead time key success factor stability and timing lead time interaction other interactions are less important therefore while venture capitalists use contingent decision policies main effects dominate if venture capitalists use a reported 8 to 12 minutes on average to evaluate a business plan sandberg 1986 then this study s findings may help the inexperienced venture capitalist allocate time towards assessing those attributes of primary importance although more complex relationships exist between the attributes the inexperienced venture capitalist can take comfort from this study s findings that main effects dominant amongst senior venture capitalists senior venture capitalists may take less comfort from their importance placed on main effects in light of research from io which suggests the importance of contingent relationships the results may also have practical application towards training how should venture capital firms train their new employees should venture capital firms rely solely on experienced venture capitalists lecturing the inexperienced on the criteria they use in assessing a new venture proposal like most decision makers venture capitalists have limited insight into their assessments and venture capital firms need to be aware of the gap between espoused policies and policies in use the information being taught needs to be supplemented with venture capitalists decision making research that investigates decision policies in use such as this study venture capitalist training could also involve experiential learning in conjunction with cognitive feedback about the decision policies used to accelerate the learning process experiential learning using cognitive feedback maximizes industry related learning while minimizing the cost of inexperienced decisions for the entrepreneur seeking capital this increased understanding of venture capitalists decision making may help them better target their business plans and presentations at those criteria venture capitalists find most critical to the profitability of a new venture

dynamic effects of the order of entry on market share trial penetration and repeat purchases for frequently purchased consumer goods a time series cross sectional analysis of 18 successful later entrants in 8 categories of consumer packaged goods over the period from october 1983 to january 1988 confirms previous empirical findings that after correcting for differences in marketing effort later entrants suffer a long term market share disadvantage new evidence of the penalties associated with later entry are found in statistical estimation of models of cumulative trial first repeat and subsequent repeat purchasing significantly lower asymptotic levels are found in both trial and repeat behavior however based on this data the rate of approach of later entrants to their lower asymptotic performance measures is either equal to or faster than early entrants and provides evidence of a compensating partial effect accrued by later entrants

explaining pension dynamics whether and how the labor market will adapt to anticipated changes in the workforce age distribution depends on how able companies are to induce desired turnover patterns among older and younger employees this paper contends that companies can and will use pension plan provisions as powerful incentives to induce people to remain on their jobs and perhaps even more importantly to leave at later ages a longitudinalfile of collectively bargained pension plans gathered by the united states bureau of labor statistics is examined empirically we find dramatic increases in benefit levels reductions in early normal and deferred retirement ages and declines in the age at which pension present values peak with retirement after that age penalized several explanations for these observed pension outcomes are evaluated empirically we believe that these findings indicate how employer provided pensions can and will play an important role in helping companies induce desired turnover patterns as the workforce ages

a strategic needs perspective on operations outsourcing and other inter firm relationships abstract this paper considers two issues the formation of inter firm relationships and the choice of governance form these have been widely investigated in both the strategic management and operations management fields this paper contributes to the literature in three ways first we address why firms enter inter firm relationships by hypothesizing that managers enter them to pursue three strategic needs that is efficiency effectiveness knowledge learning and global market access our first contribution evidences the relationship between the above strategic needs and a number of operational objectives that managers normally pursue in an inter firm relationship second we hypothesize how the achievement of the above strategic needs influences the choice of governance form third we compare our framework with the operations management approach to strategic networks by evidencing similarities between the two approaches and showing that managers pursue a similar approach when they face inter firm agreement issues whether agreements are supply chain or strategy oriented we empirically test our framework using secondary data consisting of 95 inter firm agreements our findings largely support the theoretical predictions and also have important practical implications first our results offer managers practice suggestions on what kinds of objectives can be pursued together in inter firm relationships to achieve specific strategic needs and which governance form is most suitable depending on the strategic need in question second we consider the strategic reasoning concerning inter firm relationship management and some engineering issues such as time and quality objectives that while largely considered in the operations management literature are often neglected in the strategic management field

foreignness and exit over the life cycle of firms received wisdom indicates that owing to a liability of foreignness foreign firms exit with greater likelihood than do comparable domestic firms and that the difference attenuates as firms age and overcome the liability we posit that foreign firms are also intrinsically more volatile and footloose than domestic ones and that this leads to an increasing divergence between the exit rates of foreign and domestic firms empirically we find that the difference between exit rates of foreign firms and domestic firms increases with age as exit of foreign firms increases with age while that of purely domestic firms decreases exit rates of domestic based multinationals do not change significantly with age they are between those of foreign and purely domestic firms but are closer to the latter this suggests that the footlooseness observed for foreign firms is due to foreignness more than to multinationality

when should entrepreneurs expedite or delay opportunity exploitation abstract we theorize on the performance implications of the timing at which entrepreneurs stop exploring their business opportunities and start exploiting them using an optimal stopping approach we characterize the time when exploitation should begin based primarily on when an entrepreneur s ignorance has been sufficiently reduced through knowledge accumulation this ignorance threshold captures a tradeoff between the time needed to increase legitimacy and the necessity to act now to minimize competition changes in legitimacy and competition are based on how entrepreneurs manage their knowledge tacit versus explicit under differing degrees of novelty for the business opportunity these changes in turn impact the performance and timing of opportunity exploitation

does acquiring venture capital pay off for the funded firms a meta analysis on the relationship between venture capital investment and funded firm financial performance abstract researchers and practitioners frequently propose that venture capital vc is an important resource to increase the performance of funded firms especially in environments of uncertainty in this paper we scrutinize these theoretical propositions following an evidence based research approach we synthesize 76 empirical samples on 36 567 firms we find a small positive performance effect of vc investment on funded firm performance however the effect vanishes if researchers control for industry selection effects furthermore we find that the performance effect mainly relates to firm growth while profitability is unaffected we also uncover that performance effects are reduced when the funded firms are very young or very mature in addition studies focusing on ipo events which constitute the majority of studies determine a substantially smaller performance effect we discuss theoretical implications and offer suggestions for future research on vc

initial human and financial capital as predictors of new venture performance abstract this research seeks to predict the performance of new ventures based on factors that can be observed at the time of start up indicators of initial human and financial capital are considered to determine how they bear upon the probability of three possible performance outcomes 1 failure 2 marginal survival or 3 high growth four categories of initial human and financial capital are examined general human capital represented here by the entrepreneur s education gender and race may reflect the extent to which the entrepreneur has had the opportunity to develop relevant skills and contacts management know how embodied in the entrepreneur or available through advisors or partners reflects management specific skills and knowledge without regard to the kind of business industry specific know how reflects specific experience in similar businesses financial capital is one of the most visible resources it can create a buffer against random shocks and allow the pursuit of more capital intensive strategies which are better protected from imitation the study utilizes a longitudinal study of 1053 new ventures representative of all industry sectors and geographical regions the research departs from most previous studies in considering different measures of performance marginal survival and growth and in considering explicitly whether the factors contributing to marginal survival differ from those contributing to high growth it was found that measures of general human capital influenced both survival and growth except for gender with women owned ventures being less likely to grow but just as likely to survive management know how variables had more limited impact having parents who had owned a business contributed to marginal survival but not to growth number of partners contributed to growth but not to survival management level prior employment in non profit organizations or not having been in the labor force and the use of professional advisors did not have significant effects industry specific know how contributed to both survival and growth amount of initial financial capital also contributed to both the usefulness of the model is enhanced by the fact that the resource variables considered are relatively easy to assess and all can be considered at the time of start up although some of the human capital variables cannot easily be changed the benefits or risks associated with each can be assessed in some cases potential problems can be identified so that plans can be modified to improve prospects overall it appears that using a model based upon the initial human and financial capital of the venture it is possible to predict the performance of new ventures with some degree of confidence

hostile environmental jolts transaction set and new business abstract in this exploratory study we examine empirically the effects of environmental jolts on the evolution of the set of relationships that entrepreneurs have with their customers and suppliers which we call the transaction set we believe that understanding how turbulence in the environment affects the ability of entrepreneurs to hold on to their existing relationships or to add new relationships is fundamental to understanding the evolution and growth of an organization from a start up to a stable wealth creating enterprise in the long run using longitudinal data spanning 7 to 10 years from five start up firms we investigate three questions on the connection between environmental jolts and changes in the transaction set of the firm first do environmental jolts during the early life of the firm induce significant reductions in the set of relationships of a new small firm second are entrepreneurs able to add new relationships in greater numbers than the exit of old relationships following a jolt and third do start ups enjoy a honeymoon period when environmental jolts do not induce significant reductions in the set of relationships after a jolt our study yielded several findings that may be of interest to entrepreneurs academics and incubator managers first environmental jolts have a significant impact on the exits of relationships from the transaction set of a new small firm but not necessarily on the entry of new relationships into the set thus although liabilities of newness and small size seem to affect the ability of entrepreneurs to hold on to their existing relationships during environmental jolts these jolts do not seem to affect the entrepreneur s ability to add ties at least in the very early life of the firm second the level of reduction after environmental jolts seems to be less severe during the early life and greatest during the adolescent period further entries of new relationships decrease with each succeeding jolt one implication of our findings is that environmental selection pressures are more severe after an incubation period called the honeymoon period a second implication of our findings is the way in which liability of adolescence manifests itself the honeymoon does not provide incubation against exits of relationships rather the incubation manifests itself in the form of the willingness of new customers and suppliers to join the entrepreneur s transaction set even during a jolt however this goodwill shown by new customers and suppliers decreases with each succeeding jolt thus making the firm very vulnerable to failure during its adolescent phase of life we believe our study emphasizes the role that chance plays in the early survival and growth of firms firms lucky to avoid hostile jolts after their honeymoon period will be in a better position to grow rapidly other things being equal despite sound management and superior exercise of enterprise jolts appear in the life of firms in a stochastic often unpredictable fashion although it is not clear that firms who have superior enterprise ability or slack are more likely to succeed than those who don t what is clear is that the ability to survive and grow is seriously affected with each succeeding jolt whatever the ability if our findings and our inference from the findings are general they have an important public policy implication for new small companies conventional wisdom holds that given liabilities of newness and small size incubator environments are best provided to start up firms we would recommend a different strategy incubator environments are best provided not at the start up stage to new business but at the adolescent stage incubators should be provided to companies that show during the honeymoon phase that their ideas and products have merit and that they can attract customers and investors to their venture it is during the adolescent stage that firms are most vulnerable to environmental disturbances and where ability may not be a sufficiently good discriminator between survival and failure

taxes fringe benefits and faculty the growth of employee benefits in academe has closely paralleled their economy wide growth this study estimates a complete system describing the demand for benefits and wages using panel data on 1477 institutions of higher learning the demand for benefits is very responsive to changes in real income and the tax price of benefits these conclusions are robust with respect to varying definitions of the tax price treating it as endogenous and accounting for unmeasured individual effects on demand simulations suggest that the tax reform act of 1986 sharply reduced the demand for benefits extrapolating the impact to the entire economy the annual flow of compensation shifted away from benefits by at least 15 billion copyright 1992 by mit press

risky business the survival implications of exploiting commercial opportunities by nonprofits prior research is equivocal as to the performance implications of exploiting market based opportunities by nonprofit organizations we investigate an under addressed measure of performance in this literature organizational survival drawing upon resource dependence theory we argue that performance is largely dependent upon the extent to which nonprofits focus on market based opportunities through analysis of the population of canadian charities we find support for a u shaped relationship indicating that low to moderate levels of market based income decrease the likelihood of firm exit whereas high levels increase this likelihood

measuring basic wants for state and local public goods a preference independence transformation approach a rotterdam demand framework is used to estimate the demand for five state and local government slg services a prefere nce independence transformation of these results identifies the under lying voter wants which these services satisfy the results reflect a shift from physical capital to human capital wants over the 1952 83 period a general slg want accounts for 75 to 95 percent of slg spend ing over this period a minimum service level want including mos t highway and infrastructure spending declines in importance over ti me while a human capital infrastructure contrast want composed of education and health spending increases in importance copyright 1987 by mit press

moving forward balancing the financial and emotional costs of business failure why do owner managers delay business failure when it is financially costly to do so in this paper we acknowledge that delaying business failure can be financially costly to the owner manager and the more costly the delay the more difficult the recovery but we complement this financial perspective by introducing the notion of anticipatory grief as a mechanism for reducing the level of grief triggered by the failure event which reduces the emotional costs of business failure we propose that under some circumstances delaying business failure can help balance the financial and emotional costs of business failure to enhance an owner manager s overall recovery some persistence may be beneficial to recovery and promote subsequent entrepreneurial action

retirement measures in the health and retirement study this paper highlights unanswered research questions in the economics of retirement and shows how these questions can be addressed using the health and retirement study hrs unique features of the survey are described including administrative records on earnings and social security benefits and employer provided data on pensions and health insurance also collected by the survey are indicators of retirement plans health status family structure income wealth and employer policies affecting job opportunities and constraints data from the first wave of the hrs are used to analyze retirement outcomes and constraints shaping retirement behavior

toward explaining earlier retirement after 1970 this study investigates why after 15 years of virtual stability u s labor force participation rates for men aged 55 to 64 fell by approximately 20 from 1970 through 1986 the author s analysis of rule changes in the social security system and pension plans suggests that part of this reduction was caused by an increase in social security benefits by almost 50 during the 1970s half of which is not reflected in legislation which worked to create unexpected wealth effects similar to those that characterized the system during the early 1950s but an equally important cause was a widespread change in private pension plan rules toward encouraging earlier retirement these conclusions challenge the common notion that earlier retirement is largely a supply side phenomenon