financial markets and growth the last five years have witnessed a resurgence of interest in the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth this issue had been extensively studied nearly two decades earlier by goldsmith 1969 mckinnon 1973 shaw 1973 and others who produced considerable evidence that financial development correlates with growth but their work though insightful lacked analytical foundations in traditional growth theory financial intermediation could be related to the level of the capital stock per worker or to the level of productivity but not to their respective growth rates the latter were ascribed to exogenous technical progress the recent revival of interest in the link between financial development and growth stems mainly from the insights and techniques of endogenous growth models which have shown that there can be self sustaining growth without exogenous technical progress and that the growth rate can be related to preferences technology income distribution and institutional arrangements this provides the theoretical underpinning that early contributors lacked tinancial intermediation can be shown to have not only level effects but also growth effects the resulting models have offered important insights into the effect of financial development on growth and vice versa they have also provided new impetus to empirical research on these issues this paper reviews the ground covered so far on the theoretical and empirical front and points to some still unresolved issues

dynamic adjustment to land taxation policy neutrality and welfare implications abstract in this paper we use a dynamic three sector model to examine the neutrality and welfare effects of land income taxes we find that 1 taxes that are neutral in long run equilibrium need not be neutral in the short run 2 short run neutrality depends upon the tax treatment of development costs and losses and 3 many of the neutrality results hold under both static and rational expectations assumptions we also find that even without externality assumptions nonneutrality in the short run does not necessarily entail a welfare cost and may be welfare enhancing when agents have less than perfect foresight

institutions infrastructure and economic growth abstract this paper develops a structural model of infrastructure and output growth that takes account of institutional and economic factors that mediate in the infrastructure gdp interactions cross country estimates of the model indicate that the contribution of infrastructure services to gdp is substantial and in general exceeds the cost of provision of those services the results also shed light on the factors that shape a country s response to its infrastructure needs and offer policy implications for facilitating the removal of infrastructure inadequacies

the impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub saharan africa abstract specialization in primary product exports reduces growth but why adverse trends in and the high variance of primary product prices are possible explanations the impact on investment and growth of the level and volatility of the terms of trade and the real effective exchange rate is estimated for a panel of 14 sub saharan african countries over 1980 1995 growth is negatively affected by terms of trade instability and investment by real exchange rate instability both growth and investment increase when the terms of trade improve and real exchange rate overvaluation is eliminated

the mirage of fixed exchange rates this paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets contrary to popular wisdom industrialized country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack but if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange rate peg can be very high the dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 swedish and british crises and the 1994 95 mexican collapse we also discuss the small number of successful fixers

fiscal policy and monetary integration in europe fiscal policy economists policy makers and the media often argue that the maastricht treaty and the stability and growth pact make it difficult for governments of emu countries to stabilize their economies with appropriate fiscal policy and to provide adequate public investment our empirical analysis offers little support to this view discretionary budget deficits have actually become more counter cyclical in emu countries after the maastricht treaty as well as in the other eu and non eu industrialized countries we study and while public investment has declined recently in emu countries a similar tendency is apparent in other countries and started well before the maastricht treaty was signed jordi gali and roberto perotti

the anticipated and concurring effects of the emu exchange rate volatility institutions and growth abstract reduced exchange rate volatility and higher and less heterogeneous quality of institutional rules and macroeconomic policies are two of the main anticipated and concurring effects expected from a currency union in this paper we measure the magnitude of these two effects for the eurozone countries looking at real effective exchange rates reer and at different indicators of quality of institutional rules and macroeconomic policies qirmp we find that the first effect is much stronger than the second when we compare relative changes for eurozone countries and the rest of the world in the relevant period we further evaluate the impact of both effects on economic growth on a larger sample of countries our findings show that both have significant impact on levels more robust and on rates of growth weaker of per capita gdp

the real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in sub saharan africa abstract pooled time series and cross section data for 33 countries in sub saharan africa ssa confirm the negative relationship between the real exchange rate rer misalignment and economic performance economic growth imports exports saving and investment macroeconomic instability also slows growth and other indicators of performance higher levels of misalignment are accompanied by higher levels of macroeconomic instability both lower levels of rer misalignment and instability lead to better economic performance the edwards model of rer determination performs well for the region black market premia tend to show a greater degree of misalignment in rer than alternative measures

distinguished lecture on economics in government reflections on managing global integration the language of public policy is increasingly the language of economics and sophisticated policy formulation depends to an ever greater extent on an understanding of economic concepts over the last six years i have spent at the u s department of the treasury i have had the chance to be present when concepts ranging from superlative price indices to multiple equilibrium to the liquidity trap to dynamic hedging to shadow pricing were discussed with the president of the united states where it was once the case that the president s council of economic advisers waged a lonely battle for good economics in the federal government today first rate economists staff departments ranging from treasury to labor to commerce to justice to the environmental protection agency and they hold line as well as advisory positions while academic interlopers serving as political appointees like myself may get a majority of the attention a majority of the greater economic literacy of government policy in areas ranging from tax policy to telecommunications policy from monetary policy to manpower policy from financial policy to forestry policy is the result of the steady perseverance of career government economists as remarkable as the penetration of economics and economists into the american government has been their penetration into even higher levels of governments around the world is even more notable a decade ago mexican president zedillo was a practicing monetary economist in the bank of mexico two recent italian prime ministers romano prodi and lamberto dini have distinguished records as economic thinkers lest anyone think all those trained in economics think alike russian prime minister primakov holds a doctorate in political economy there are too many examples to catalogue of economists at the level of finance minister and central bank governor consider the influence of

the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the level of investment conventional wisdom has it that increasing price or exchange rate uncertainty will depress investment using the dixit pindyck model we find that there are situations where this will happen and situations where it does not there are threshold effects which allows us to identify when rising volatility would increase or decrease investment and also to identify which types of industries would gain and which would suffer from a move to fixed exchange rates this is important for monetary union in europe since it is likely that even if trade is insensitive to exchange rate volatility investment with its longer horizon will be affected textbook theories of investment under uncertainty present a rather oversimplified rule for a firm deciding whether to invest or not if the project s expected net present value npv is positive the firm invests otherwise it does not this implies that if the investment is reversible the firm will simply disinvest if the npv turns negative but if investment is irreversible then if a firm decides not to invest it will never invest this is not a realistic approach given uncertainty firms often find it convenient to wait rather than to commit themselves one way or another waiting is therefore a proper alternative to investing or not investing and firms will be confronted with an invest wait do not invest decision rather than an invest do not invest one dixit and pindyck 1994 have developed a model in which the option value of an investment project is evaluated to represent the value of waiting that option value then becomes part of the investment costs because once an irreversible investment is made the possibility of exercising this option to invest later on when better information is available has been lost thus the decision rule is still invest if npv 0 otherwise do not invest but the npv now represents the present value of the expected revenues less the value of the option to invest later less the present value of any other investment costs in this paper we extend the dixit pindyck model for varying degrees of uncertainty and price drift and specifically for the case where that uncertainty is caused by exchange rate volatility such an extension is important not only because it is a new development but also because we need to understand how monetary union will affect investment expenditures in europe for simplicity we assume the domestic prices are fixed and that the only uncertainty is in the exchange rate and hence the domestic value of foreign currency revenues that leaves us with various problems the first is to determine the threshold at which exchange rate price uncertainty is sufficient to affect investment adversely second under what conditions does that uncertainty actually reduce investment third do exchange rate misalignments or exchange rate volatility damage investment more we show that answers to such questions can be c55

fixed exchange rates as a means to price stability what have we learned abstract the paper discusses what we have learned from last year s currency crises in erm and the nordic countries about fixed exchange rates as a means to achieve price stability after discussing the explanations for the crises the paper concludes that fixed exchange rates are not a shortcut to price stability monetary stability and credibility have to be built at home and cannot easily be imported from abroad fixed exchange rates are more fragile and difficult to maintain than previously thought they may even be in conflict with price stability by inducing a procyclical destabilizing monetary policy and by inducing an inflation bias building monetary credibility is even more important with flexible exchange rates

real exchange rate behavior and economic performance in ldcs in recent years policy discussions have included increasing references to real exchange rate rer stability and correct exchange rate alignment as crucial conditions to improve economic performance in less developed countries ldcs 1 evidence from latin american asian and african countries is often quoted to support the view that the link between rer behavior and economic performance is strong it is argued that while unstable rers inhibited export growth in some of latin america their stability was fundamental in promoting east asian expansion in many african countries on the other hand persistently misaligned local currencies harmed the development of agriculture reducing domestic food supply 2 but in spite of its importance no empirical work has been attempted either to test the relationship between rer behavior and performance indicators at a broad multicountry level or to investigate the sources of rer variability and misalignment in ldcs the theoretical literature on rer determinants has been recently surveyed by sebastian edwards 3 he distinguishes between equilibrium and disequilibrium rers and between external and domestic rer determinants although domestic policies are often said to account for significant rer variations empirical work has only concentrated on the effect of nominal devaluations4 or speculative crises arising from expansionary monetary policies in a system of fixed ex

the advantage of tying one s hands ems discipline and central bank credibility abstract it is often argued that the ems is an effective disciplinary device for inflation prone countries in europe since it forces the respective policy makers to pursue more restrictive monetary policies than they would otherwise it is not clear however why these countries should submit themselves to such discipline this paper argues that to answer this question appropriately one must consider that ems membership brings potentially large credibility gains policy makers in inflation prone countries the reason is that not only it attaches an extra penalty to inflation in terms of real appreciation but makes the public aware that the policy maker is faced with such penalty and thus helps to overcome the inefficiency stemming from the public s mistrust of the authorities

the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on exports empirical evidence unless very specific assumptions are made theory alone cannot determine the sign of the relation between real exchange rate uncertainty and exports on the one hand convexity of the profit function with respect to prices implies that an increase in price uncertainty raises the expected returns in the export sector on the other potential asymmetries in the cost of adjusting factors of production for example investment irreversibility and risk aversion tend to make the uncertainty exports relation negative this article examines these issues using a simple risk aversion model export equations allowing for uncertainty are then estimated for six developing countries contrary to the ambiguity of the theory the empirical relation is strongly negative estimates indicate that a 5 percent increase in the annual standard deviation of the real exchange rate can reduce exports by 2 to 30 percent in the short run these effects are substantially magnified in the long run

exchange rate pass through when market share matters the authors investigate the pass through from exchange rates to import prices when firms future demands depend on their current market shares they show that profit maximizing foreign firms may either raise or lower their dollar export prices when the dollar appreciates temporarily i e the pass through may be perverse and that current import prices may be more sensitive to expected future exchange rates than to current exchange rates they present evidence that suggests the behavior of expected future exchange rates may provide a clue to the puzzling recent behavior of u s import prices copyright 1989 by american economic association

welfare implications of equilibrium supply and demand curves in an open economy line integral theory is used to prove that in a closed economy the net domestic social welfare effects of a market distortion can be captured in the distorted market alone by using equilibrium supply and demand curves considerable confusion exists in the applied literature about the proper application of this proposition it is shown that the proposition does not generally hold for open economies it is shown that in general neither geometric areas behind equilibrium supply curves nor geometric areas behind equilibrium demand curves have any welfare significance

the political economy of growth a critical survey of the recent literature this article reviews the recent literature on the political economy of growth focusing on the research that has developed at the intersection of the endogenous growth literature and the new political economy it explores the relationship among four key variables economic growth and capital accumulation political instability political freedom and democratic institutions and income inequality

politics and productivity i introduction economic studies of long run performance are focusing increasingly on political legal financial and social factors development is no longer regarded as a gradual inevitable transformation from self sufficiency to specialization and participation in the division of labor instead progress follows the creation and evolution of institutions that support social and commercial relationships the new institutional economics explains that growth requires that the potential hazards of trade shirking opportunism risk and so on be controlled by institutions like secure property rights reliable procedures for resolving disputes and means of enforcing contracts in the absence of close social ties these institutions reduce information costs encourage capital formation and capital mobility allow risks to be priced and shared and otherwise facilitate cooperation north and thomas 1973 north 1990 drobak and nye 1997 levine 1997 in particular political authorities must make credible commitments not to expropriate private resources once investments have been made 1 despite widespread agreement that institutions matter there is no consensus on how they should be incorporated into the analysis even the best empirical studies of productivity and growth treat institutional characteristics in an eclectic way barro s 1991 influential article for example uses the numbers of assassinations and revolutions per capita as proxies for political instability finding these measures negatively correlated with growth and investment scully 1988 regresses growth rates on dummy variables derived from gastil s 1982 ordinal rankings of political and economic liberty king and levine 1993a 1993b 1993c derive various measures of the quality of financial intermediaries and show that these measures are good predictors of growth this article presents a different approach to analyzing the relationship between institutions and aggregate economic performance following the modem productivity literature see for example fried et al 1993 we model economic performance with a stochastic production frontier frontier analysis is a form of benchmarking it analyzes a group of branches firms nations or other units by identifying best practices and evaluating each member s performance relative to the best practice frontier the results produce not only qualitative rankings of the group members but also numerical efficiency scores that can be used to assess the effects of various policies and characteristics for this reason frontier analysis is well suited for studying the effects of legal and political institutions on the economic performance of nations to capture institutional factors we use two comprehensive indexes of legal regulatory and political conditions working with a broad sample of countries from 1975 to 1990 we incorporate a widely used measure of economic freedom along with a new measure of policy stability to represent a country s institutional environment the new institutional economics suggests that countries with high levels of economic freedom protection of private property rights respect for the rule of law an unhampered price system and so on and policy stability commitment not to change the rules of the game ex post will be closer to the best practice frontier in our model economic freedom and policy stability affect economic performance by enhancing technical efficiency in other words these institutions do not alter the state of technology but they allow producers to squeeze more out of current technology for instance countries with more stable policies attract more foreign investment than countries with less stable policies ceteris paribus this leads to increased competition among producers which in turn brings efficiency gains similarly countries with lower taxes milder regulatory burdens lower inflation fewer restrictions on foreign ownership and so on are likely to produce output more efficiently than countries with policies that restrict production inhibit capital formation and reduce competition

specifying human capital a review of the measures of the stock of human capital used in empiricalgrowth research including adult literacy rates school enrollmentratios and average years of schooling of the working age population reveals that human capital is mostly poorly proxied the simple use ofthe most common proxy average years of schooling misspecifies therelationship between education and the stock of human capital based onhuman capital theory the specification of human capital is extended toallow for decreasing returns to education and for differences in thequality of a year of education the different specifications give riseto hugely differing measures of the stock of human capital acrosscountries and development accounting results show that misspecifiedhuman capital measures can lead to severe underestimation of thedevelopment effect of human capital