food price transmission and economic development in this paper we challenge the conventional wisdom that the world s poorest countries are also the most vulnerable to spikes in international food prices we derive an inverted u shaped relationshi

commodity prices trade and poverty in uruguay abstract the 2006 2008 food price spike raised concerns about the impact of high commodity prices on poverty in developing countries this paper addresses these concerns in relation to uruguay a small country that exports agricultural commodities and imports fuels applying a general equilibrium model we find that as a whole an increase in commodity prices has a positive effect on the economy of uruguay benefits obtained through a growth in export activities are partially outweighed by an increase in crude oil prices in this context extreme poverty increases as in other countries the increase in food prices affects the already poor population who become even poorer this fact highlights the need for policies that mitigate the negative effects of price shocks

quality quantity and nutritional impacts of rice price changes in vietnam summary asian governments intervene in the world rice market to protect domestic consumers whether consumers are nutritionally vulnerable depends on the elasticity of calories with respect to rice prices common demand models applied to household survey and market price data ignore quality substitution and force all adjustment onto the quantity calorie margin this paper uses data from vietnam on market prices food quantity and quality a 10 increase in the relative price of rice reduces household calorie consumption by less than 2 but this elasticity would be wrongly estimated to be more than twice as large if quality substitution is ignored

the impact of the global food crisis on self assessed food security the paper provides the first large scale survey based evidence on the impact of the global food crisis of 2007 08 using an indicator of self assessed food security from the gallup world poll for the sampled countries as a whole this subjective indicator of food security remained the same or even improved seemingly owing to a combination of strong economic growth and limited food inflation in some of the most populous countries particularly india however these favorable global trends mask divergent trends at the national and regional levels with a number of countries reporting substantial deterioration in food security the impacts of the global crisis therefore appear to be highly context specific

adjustment costs inventories and output this paper analyzes the optimal adjustment strategy of an inventory holding firm facing price and quantity adjustment costs in an inflationary environment the model nests both the original menu cost model that allows production to be costlessly adjusted and the later model that includes price and quantity adjustment costs but rules out inventory holdings it is shown that the firm s optimal adjustment strategy may involve stockouts at low inflation rates output is inversely related to the inflation rate and the length of time demand is satisfied increases with the demand elasticity but decreases with the storage cost and the real interest rate

platform competition in two sided markets many if not most markets with network externalities are two sided to succeed platforms in industries such as software portals and media payment systems and the internet must get both sides of the market on board accordingly platforms devote much attention to their business model that is to how they court each side while making money overall this paper builds a model of platform competition with two sided markets it unveils the determinants of price allocation and end user surplus for different governance structures profit maximizing platforms and not for profit joint undertakings and compares the outcomes with those under an integrated monopolist and a ramsey planner jel l5 l82 l86 l96

bivariate garch estimation of the optimal commodity futures hedge six different commodities are examined using daily data over two futures contract periods cash and futures prices for all six commodities are found to be well described as martingales with near integrated garch innovations bivariate garch models of cash and futures prices are estimated for the same six commodities the optimal hedge ratio ohr is then calculated as a ratio of the conditional covariance between cash and futures to the conditional variance of futures the estimated ohrs reveal that the standard assumption of a time invariant ohr is inappropriate for each commodity the estimated ohr path appears non stationary which has important implications for hedging strategies

measuring the impacts of production risk on technical efficiency a state contingent conditional order m approach this article studies the influence of risk on farms technical efficiency levels the analysis extends the order m efficiency scores approach proposed by daraio and simar 2005 to the state contingent framework the empirical application focuses on cross section data of catalan specialized crop farms from the year 2011 results suggest that accounting for production risks increases the technical performance a 10 increase in output risk will result in a 2 5 increase in average firm technical performance 2014 elsevier b v all rights reserved

market provision of broadcasting a welfare analysis this paper presents a theory of the market provision of broadcasting and uses it to address the nature of market failure in the industry advertising levels may be too low or too high depending on the nuisance cost to viewers the substitutability of programs and the expected benefits to advertisers from contacting viewers market provision may allocate too few or too many resources to programming and these resources may be used to produce programs of the wrong type monopoly ownership may produce higher social surplus than competitive ownership and the ability to price programming may reduce social surplus

gendered impacts of the 2007 2008 food price crisis evidence using panel data from rural ethiopia abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on the gendered impact of the 2007 2008 food price crisis using panel data on 1400 households from rural ethiopia that were initially surveyed before the onset of the crisis in 1994 1995 1997 and 2004 and after food prices spiked in 2009 it investigates whether female headed households are more likely to report experiencing a food price shock and whether female headed households experiencing a shock are more or less likely to adopt certain coping strategies controlling for individual household and community characteristics our findings suggest that female headed households are more vulnerable to food price changes and are more likely to have experienced a food price shock in 2007 2008 because female headed households are also resource poor and have a larger food gap compared with male headed households they cope by cutting back on the number of meals they provide their households during good months and eating less preferred foods in general a combination of short term measures to protect diet diversity and micronutrient consumption of vulnerable groups and longer term measures to promote investment in sustainable agriculture such as strengthening women s property rights may increase the ability of poor and vulnerable households to cope better with food price increases

the global food crisis and guatemala what crisis and for whom summary international food prices rose sharply during 2006 08 precipitating the global food crisis we analyze the welfare effects of changes in prices over categories of households in guatemala and find three surprising results the first is that the transmission of international into domestic prices was quite modest the second is that most farm households are net buyers of food implying that they lost from rising prices the third is that farm households represent two thirds of all poor households losing from rising food prices stressing the importance of production for home consumption in sheltering the poor from the crisis

impact of food inflation on poverty in the philippines abstract we simulate the impact of food inflation between june 2006 and june 2008 on poverty across different areas and between agricultural and non agricultural households we explicitly treat the spatial heterogeneity in food inflation and the differences in consumption and production patterns across households by merging household expenditure survey and price datasets at the provincial level or lower although some of the poor agricultural households may have escaped poverty the poorest of the poor whether they are in an agricultural household or not are severely and adversely affected by the food inflation

purchasing power parity for developing and developed countries what can we learn from non stationary panel data models the aim of this paper is to apply recently developed panel cointegration techniques proposed by pedroni 1999 2004 and generalized by banerjee and carrion i silvestre 2006 to examine the robustness of the ppp concept for a sample of 80 developed and developing countries we find that strong ppp is verified for oecd countries and weak ppp for mena countries however in african asian latin american and central and eastern european countries ppp does not seem relevant to characterize the long run behavior of the real exchange rate further investigations indicate that the nature of the exchange rate regime doesn t condition the validity of ppp which is more easily accepted in countries with high than low inflation

quantity restrictions on advertising commercial media bias and welfare abstract we study the welfare effect of a quantity restriction on advertising in free to air television and other advertising financed media in the presence of commercial media bias broadcasters face a trade off between increasing the number of viewers by sending content that is highly valued by viewers and increasing the price of advertising by choosing advertiser friendly content a cap on advertising drives the per viewer price of ads up thus content improves for viewers therefore the cap can be welfare enhancing even when viewers are not ad averse competition among broadcasters makes it more likely that a cap on advertising improves welfare thus there is a complementarity between regulation and competition on this market we also show that a tax on advertising revenues has quite different effects than a cap on advertising quantity

monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices evidence from structural and factor augmented var analyses fluctuation in commodity prices is a significant and timely issue to be studied this study is to examine the impact of monetary policy and other macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices the major contributions of this study are twofold first unlike other studies that use indexes this study analyzes the commodities individually affording the inclusion of commodity specific fundamentals such as the level of inventory an important determinant of commodity price in a structural var framework second it exploits a rich data set of agricultural commodity prices which includes commodities that are usually overlooked in the literature and extracts a common factor using the dynamic factor model to understand the extent of comovement of the prices and to gauge the extent to which macroeconomic shocks drive the comovement in a factor augmented var favar framework the findings show that monetary policy global economic conditions and the u s dollar exchange rates play an important role in the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices

the dynamic relationship between agricultural sustainability and food energy water poverty in a panel of selected sub saharan african countries abstract the relationship between food energy water resources and agricultural sustainability has got a significant policy attraction that generally in favor of livelihood of the poor which is largely affected by climate change food security challenges poor access of water resources and less access of electricity these challenges generally faced by less developing countries while sub saharan african ssa countries has no exemption to escape out from this food water energy poverty nexus due to inadequate socio economic and environmental action programs of sustainable development this study examined the dynamic nexus between agricultural sustainability and food energy water poverty in a panel of selected ssa countries over the period of 1980 2013 the study used pooled least squares regression pooled fixed effects and pooled random effects regression techniques to absorb country specific time variant shocks the hausman 1978 test results reveal that country specific shocks influence the food energy water poverty model therefore the fixed effects regression results are consider a better fit model than that of the pooled random effect model the overall results conclude that agricultural value added cereal yields and forest area significantly decreases food energy water poverty nexus leading to higher economic growth and price levels at the cost of environmental degradation in general agricultural sustainability is the prerequisite for reducing food energy water poverty

the comparison between ad valorem and specific taxation under imperfect competition abstract this paper compares ad valorem and specific taxation in two models of oligopoly with and without free entry predominantly ad valorem taxation implies a relatively low consumer price high tax revenue and when entry is precluded low profits ad valorem taxation dominates specific taxation from the welfare perspective the set of circumstances under which with free entry specific taxation raises welfare is a strict subset of that in which ad valorem taxation is welfare improving and in both models the maximisation of consumer welfare subject to a binding revenue constraint requires maximum reliance on ad valorem taxation

the price impact of extreme weather in developing countries we examine the impact of extreme weather on consumer prices in developing countries by constructing a monthly data set of potential hurricane and flood destruction indices and linking these with consumer price data for 15 caribbean islands our econometric model shows that the price impact of extreme weather events can be large to illustrate potential welfare losses due to these price effects we combine our estimates with price elasticities obtained from a demand system and with event probabilities for jamaica our results show that while expected monthly losses are small rare events can cause large falls in monthly welfare due to price increases

the developing world is poorer than we thought but no less successful in the fight against poverty a new data set on national poverty lines is combined with new price data and almost 700 household surveys to estimate absolute poverty measures for the developing world we find that 25 of the population lived in poverty in 2005 as judged by what poverty typically means in the world s poorest countries this is higher than past estimates substantial overall progress is still indicated the corresponding poverty rate was 52 in 1981 but progress was very uneven across regions the trends over time and regional profile are robust to various changes in methodology though precise counts are more sensitive

estimating the short run poverty impacts of the 2010 11 surge in food prices global food prices have increased substantially since mid 2010 as have prices in many developing countries in this study we assess the poverty impact of the price changes between june and december 2010 in twenty eight low and middle income countries this is done by gathering detailed information on individual households food production and consumption levels for thirty eight agricultural and food commodities to assess the impacts on household welfare this study estimates that this sudden food price surge increased the number of poor people globally but with considerably different impacts in different countries the heterogeneity of these impacts is partly related to the wide variation in the transmission of global prices to local prices and partly to differences in households patterns of production and consumption on balance the adverse welfare impact on net buyers outweighs the benefits to net sellers resulting in an increase in the number of poor and in the depth of poverty we estimate that the average poverty change was 1 1 percentage points in low income countries and 0 7 percentage points in middle income countries with a net increase of 44 million people falling below the 1 25 per day extreme poverty line

hedging with futures does anything beat the naive hedging strategy this paper investigates out of sample performance of the naive hedging strategy relative to that of the minimum variance hedging strategy in which the covariance parameters are estimated from 18 e

the distributional impacts of indonesia s financial crisis on household welfare a rapid response methodology analyzing the distributional impacts of economic crises is an ever more pressing need if policymakers are to intervene to help those most adversely affected they need to identify those who have been hurt most and estimate the magnitude of the harm they have suffered they must also respond in a timely manner this article develops a simple methodology for measuring these effects and applies it to analyze the impact of the indonesian economic crisis on household welfare using only pre crisis household information it estimates the compensating variation for indonesian households following the 1997 asian currency crisis and then explores the results with flexible nonparametric methods it finds that virtually every household was severely affected although the urban poor fared the worst the ability of poor rural households to produce food mitigated the worst consequences of the high inflation the distributional consequences are the same whether or not households are permitted to substitute toward relatively cheaper goods households with young children may have suffered disproportionately large adverse effects

the role of online platforms for media markets two dimensional spatial competition in a two sided market abstract we analyze the market for online and offline media in a model of two dimensional spatial competition where media outlets sell content and advertising space consumer preferences are distributed along the style and type of news coverage where the distance costs may vary across dimensions for integrated provision of online and offline platforms we show that entering the online market reduces average profits and may even constitute a prisoner s dilemma specialized provision may yield polarization in the style and type dimensions this is in contrast to the maximum minimum differentiation result previously established in the literature on multidimensional horizontal competition we show that maximal differentiation in both dimensions occurs due to the discrete nature of the type dimension and asymmetric advertising markets

efficiency enhancing taxation in two sided markets this paper examines the efficient provision of goods in two sided markets and characterizes optimal specific and ad valorem taxes we show that i a monopoly may have too high output compared to the social optimum ii output may be reduced by imposing negative value added taxes subsidy or positive specific taxes

generalized optimal hedge ratio estimation a generalized approach to estimating optimal hedge ratios on futures markets is developed the generalized approach is not difficult to apply and provides a framework for evaluating the appropriateness of conventional simple regression approaches to optimal hedge ratio estimation in an application to storage hedging of corn soybeans and wheat it is found that simple regression using price levels or returns leads to errors in optimal hedge ratio estimation but that simple regression using price changes provides reasonably accurate estimates

adoption of improved wheat varieties and impacts on household food security in ethiopia this article evaluates the impact of the adoption of improved wheat varieties on food security using a recent nationally representative dataset of over 2000 farm households in ethiopia we adopted endogenous switching regression treatment effects complemented with a binary propensity score matching methodology to test robustness and reduced selection bias stemming from both observed and unobserved characteristics we expand this further with the generalized propensity score gps approach to evaluate the effects of continuous treatment on the response of the outcome variables we find a consistent result across models indicating that adoption increases food security and farm households that did adopt would also have benefited significantly had they adopted new varieties this study supports the need for vital investments in agricultural research for major food staples widely consumed by the poor and efforts to improve access to modern varieties and services policies that enhance diffusion and adoption of modern wheat varieties should be central to food security strategies in ethiopia

extent and possible causes of intrayear agricultural commodity price volatility wheat corn rice soybeans and cotton experienced higher volatility in the second half of the 2000s for the sample at hand the unit root tests only validate a new period of high volatility for wheat and cotton if in the next couple of years however corn rice and soybeans maintain their higher volatility a new period of high volatility may also be validated statistically regarding the factors driving the intrayear volatility gmm estimates show that commodity market fundamentals i e the stock to use ratio and to a lesser extent the degree of internationalization are the most systematically statistically significant coefficients among commodities over time consecutive low stock to use ratios and a thin international market provoke typically high volatility speculative activity and liquidity in the agricultural derivative market have a stabilizing effect on the spot price if any finally common macro factors significantly impact volatility especially the volatility of petrol and of exchange rates their dispersion importance over the sample is quite sizeable however it is difficult to establish a link between on the one hand loose monetary policy business cycle and inflation and on the other hand commodity price volatility as the sign of the estimated coefficient changes depending on the commodity and the estimated elasticities are quite low

hedging performance and basis risk in stock index futures in early 1982 trading began at three different exchanges in futures contracts based on stock indexes stock index futures were an immediate success and quickly led to a proliferation of new futures and options markets tied to various indexes one reason for this success was that index futures greatly extended the range of investment and risk management strategies available to investors by offering them for the first time the possibility of unbundling the market and nonmarket components of risk and return in their portfolios many portfolio management and other hedging applications in investment banking and security trading have been described elsewhere1 ranging from use by a passive fund manager to reduce risk over a long time horizon to use by an underwriter to hedge the market risk exposure in a stock offering for one or two days in considering the potential applications of index futures it is clear that in nearly every case a cross hedge is involved that is the stock position that is being hedged is different from the underlying portfolio for the index contract 2 this means that return and risk for an index futures hedge will depend upon the behavior of the basis i e the difference between the futures price and the cash price hedging a position in stock will necessarily expose it to some measure of basis risk risk that the change in the futures price over time will not track exactly the value of the cash position basis risk can arise from a number of different sources and is a more significant problem for stock index contracts than for other financial futures like treasury bills and bonds 3 the most apparent cause of basis risk is the nonmarket component of return on the cash stock position since the index contract is tied to the behavior of an underlying stock market index nonmarket risk cannot be hedged this is the essential problem of a cross hedge however basis risk can be present even when the hedge involves a position in the index portfolio itself and there is no nonmarket risk for one thing returns to the index portfolio include dividends while the index and the index future only track the capital value of the portfolio any risk associated with dividends on the portfolio will become basis risk in a hedged position still dividends are fairly low and also quite stable so this may not be a terribly important shortcoming

a markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities abstract this paper estimates constant and dynamic hedge ratios in the new york mercantile exchange oil futures markets and examines their hedging performance we also introduce a markov regime switching vector error correction model with garch error structure this specification links the concept of disequilibrium with that of uncertainty as measured by the conditional second moments across high and low volatility regimes overall in and out of sample tests indicate that state dependent hedge ratios are able to provide significant reduction in portfolio risk

self reported food insecurity in africa during the food price crisis this article analyzes data on self reported food insecurity of more than 50 000 individuals in 18 sub saharan african countries over the period 2005 2008 when global food prices increased dramatically the average level of self reported food insecurity was high but remarkably stable over time at about 54 however this average hides large heterogeneity both within countries and across countries in eight of the sample countries self reported food security improved while it worsened in the ten other countries our results suggest that heterogeneous effects in self reported food security are consistent with economic predictions as they are correlated with economic growth and net food consumption both at the household and country level specifically in the face of rising food prices self reported food security improved on average in rural households while it worsened in urban households a finding that holds when using global prices or domestic food prices improvements in food security over time were also positively correlated with net food exports and gdp per capita growth while the self reported indicator used in this paper requires further study and one should carefully interpret the results our findings suggest the need for a critical evaluation of the currently used data and numbers in the public debate on food prices and food insecurity

an examination of dynamic hedging abstract i compare garch modeled dynamic hedging strategies with traditional ols modeled strategies to determine which perform better i find that dynamic hedging reduces risk more than static hedging but only slightly this is consistent with some previous findings that more complex hedging methods may not improve the performance much briys and solnik s 1992 static comparison of the macroeconomic and asset specific components of the hedge ratio is extended to a dynamic setting to examine how the relative importance of these two components evolves through time cointegrating relationship between the spot and forward rates in the macroeconomic component is also considered but its effect is minimal the asset specific component has effect in the out of sample period especially under dynamic strategies and under short term hedging horizons

two sided markets a progress report the paper provides a road map to the burgeoning literature on two sided markets and presents new results it identifies two sided markets with markets in which the structure and not only the level of prices charged by platforms matters the failure of the coase theorem is necessary but not sufficient for two sidedness the paper builds a model integrating usage and membership externalities that unifies two hitherto disparate strands of the literature emphasizing either form of externality and obtains new results on the mix of membership and usage charges when price setting or bargaining determine payments between end users

market interactions in returns and volatilities between spot and forward shipping freight markets abstract the lead lag relationship in both returns and volatilities between spot and futures markets has been investigated extensively in the financial economics literature only a limited number of such studies have appeared on forward markets primarily due to the lack of easy access to empirical data this paper uses a unique database in over the counter forward freight agreements ffa to investigate the issue the underlying commodity is non storable being that of a shipping service with the additional feature of transactions costs being higher in the spot market in comparison to the forward market these features have interesting implications for the markets at the practical level the better understanding of the mean and variance dynamics can improve risk management and budget planning decisions

forecasting food inflation in developing countries with inflation targeting regimes developing countries that employ inflation targeting monetary policy regimes require accurate short run food inflation forecasts we develop a systematic approach to improve food inflation forecasts apply it to colombian monthly data from december 1989 to april 2006 and show its relevance for inflation targeting regimes forecast accuracy can be improved by disaggregating food products into away from home processed and fresh foods employing econometric methods to combine forecasts from individual models and using flexible least squares methods in the presence of structural changes we also show the importance of accurate food inflation forecasts in models simulating monetary policy transmission ams subject classification copyright 2012 oxford university press

local impacts of a global crisis food price transmission consumer welfare and poverty in ghana abstract this paper takes a local perspective on global food price shocks by analyzing food price transmission between regional markets in ghana it also assesses the impacts of food price increases on various household groups taking the 2007 2008 global food crisis as an example we show that prices for domestic grain products are highly correlated with world market prices this is true both for products for which ghana is highly import dependent e g rice and the products for which ghana is self sufficient e g maize the econometric results also show that price transmission is high between regional producer markets and markets located in the country s largest cities and the distance between producer and consumer markets and the size of consumer markets matter in explaining the price transmission the welfare analysis for households as consumers shows that the effect of world food prices appears relatively modest for the country as a whole due to relatively diverse consumption patterns within country however the national average hides important regional differences both between regions and within different income groups we find that the poorest of the poor particularly those living in the urban areas are hardest hit by high food prices the negative effect of the food crisis is particularly strong in northern ghana the main explanations for this regional variation in the price effect is the different consumption patterns and much lower per capita income levels in the north of ghana compared to other regions in the country

urban agriculture poverty and food security empirical evidence from a sample of developing countries urban agriculture may have a role to play in addressing urban food insecurity problems which are bound to become increasingly important with the secular trend towards the urbanization of poverty and of pop ulation in developing regions our understanding of the importance nature and food security implica tions of urban agriculture is however plagued by a lack of good quality reliable data while studies based on survey data do exist for several major cities much of the evidence is still qualitative if not anec dotal using a recently created dataset bringing together comparable nationally representative house hold survey data for 15 developing or transition countries this paper analyzes in a comparative international perspective the importance of urban agriculture for the urban poor and food insecure some clear hints do come from our analysis on the one hand the potential for urban agriculture to play a sub stantial role in urban poverty and food insecurity reduction should not be overemphasised as its share in income and overall agricultural production is often quite limited on the other hand though its role should also not be too easily dismissed particularly in much of africa and in all those countries in which agriculture provides a substantial share of income for the urban poor and for those groups of households to which it constitutes an important source of livelihoods we also find fairly consistent evidence of a positive statistical association between engagement in urban agriculture and dietary adequacy indicators

newspaper differentiation and investments in journalism the role of tax policy many countries levy reduced rate indirect taxes on newspapers with proclaimed policy goals of stimulating investment in journalism and ensuring low newspaper prices however by taking into account the fact that the media industry operates in two sided markets we find the paradoxical result that the consequences of a low tax regime might be quite the opposite we also show that the low tax regime tends to increase newspaper differentiation if the advertising market is relatively small the newspapers might invest too little in journalism and be too differentiated from a social point of view in this case a tax increase will be welfare enhancing

the impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost some back of the envelope calculations this paper uses a sample of 73 developing countries to estimate the change in the cost of alleviating urban poverty brought about by the recent increase in food prices this cost is approximated by the change in the poverty deficit that is the variation in financial resources required to eliminate poverty under perfect targeting the results show that for most countries the cost represents less than 0 1 percent of gross domestic product however in the most severely affected it may exceed 3 percent in all countries the change in the poverty deficit is mostly due to the negative real income effect of those households that were poor before the price shock while the cost attributable to new households falling into poverty is negligible thus in countries where transfer mechanisms with effective targeting already exist the most cost effective strategy would be to scale up such programs rather than designing tools to identify the new poor

local food prices and international price transmission world food prices spiked in the periods 2007 8 and 2010 11 the impact of these spikes in world food prices on local food prices and thus on local consumers is determined by the food price pass through pass through is defined as the extent to which changes in world food prices lead to changes in local food prices we examine the determinants of variation in food price pass through from global to local consumer prices in a global sample of 147 countries using fao data on world food prices and ilo data on food prices for consumers while market integration matters our study finds that income per capita is the dominant factor explaining cross country variation in pass through of food prices we estimate an elasticity of about 0 3 of pass through with respect to income per capita this means far greater price transmission of food price shocks at the commodity level to final consumers in low income countries than in high income countries the implication is that future swings in world food prices will in particular jeopardize food security in poor countries trade policy measures of market integration also affect the pass through significantly whereas infrastructure and geography measures play no significant role

forecasting energy market volatility using garch models can multivariate models beat univariate models abstract in this paper we forecast energy market volatility using both univariate and multivariate garch class models first we forecast volatilities of individual assets and find that multivariate models display better performance than univariate models second we forecast crack spread volatility and contrast the performance of multivariate models for two underlyings with the alternative of univariate ones for crack spreads directly our evidence shows that univariate models allowing for asymmetric effects display the greatest accuracy we also discuss the hedging strategy based on multivariate models and its implications for market participants

the global food crisis disaster opportunity or non event household level evidence from cote d ivoire summary using 2008 lsms data for cote d ivoire we study the welfare implications of the price increase of key imported staple food rice and consider the consumption smoothing effect of locally produced food and cash crop varieties while middle income urban households are adversely affected by rising rice prices relatively poor rural households benefit availability of local staple alternatives leads to further income redistribution from net consumers toward net producers of staples by contrast the ability to generate income from tropical cash crops not only improves the welfare of rural households but helps smooth the consumption of urban households

food price surges and poverty in urban colombia new evidence from household survey data abstract the present study simulates the impacts of price surges in 2006 2008 on poverty in the main colombian cities drawing upon household survey data it is found that the price surges increased both extreme and moderate poverty in urban areas but the magnitude of poverty rise was not homogeneous across geographical locations or in terms of household characteristics such as education or gender of the household head as a policy option we suggest geographical targeting or demographic targeting that will select and support poor households by locations or socio demographic characteristics guided by the degree of household vulnerability to food price shocks

optimal hedging under biased energy futures markets abstract optimal futures hedging positions for those agents trying to maximize their expected utility will depend on their view about the evolution of the market and on how risk adverse they are the most risk adverse agents will probably decide to full cover their positions but when a futures bias exists hedgers with moderate or low degree of risk aversion can alter their strategy depending on the expected gains in futures markets in our application to the uk natural gas market we find a statistically significant time varying negative futures bias that can be forecasted with confidence as a result of this bias most effective and best performing hedging strategies for moderate risk averse agents are those involving short long hedging in winter summer with a hedging ratio above below the minimum variance hedge ratio these findings are of great interest to practitioners in the uk natural gas markets and the methodology can be extrapolated to other energy markets

on revenue and welfare dominance of ad valorem taxes in two sided markets abstract a benchmark result in public economics is that it is possible to increase both tax revenue and welfare by making a monopoly subject to ad valorem taxes rather than unit taxes we show that such revenue and welfare dominance does not hold in two sided markets

on the measurement of poverty official statistics in the united states and the united kingdom show a rise in poverty between the 1970 s and the 1980 s but scepticism has been expressed with regard to these findings in particular the methods employed in the measurement of poverty have been the subject of criticism this paper re examines three basic issues in measuring poverty the choice of the poverty line the index of poverty and the relation between poverty and inequality one general theme running through the paper is that there is a diversity of judgments which enter the measurement of poverty and that it is necessary to recognize these explicitly in the procedures adopted there is likely to be disagreement about the choice of poverty line affecting both its level and its structure in this situation we may only be able to make comparisons and not to measure differences and the comparisons may lead only to a partial rather than a complete ordering the first section of the paper discusses the stochastic dominance conditions which allow such comparisons illustrating their application by reference to data for the united states the choice of poverty measure has been the subject of an extensive literature and a variety of measures have been proposed in the second section of the paper a different approach is suggested considering a class of measures satisfying certain general properties and seeking conditions under which all members of the class which includes many of those proposed give the same ranking those sceptical about measures of poverty often assert that poverty and inequality are being confounded the third section of the paper distinguishes four different viewpoints and relates them to theories of justice and views of social welfare

implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low income countries in many poor countries the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food many of whom are relatively poor while hurting net food consumers many of whom are also relatively poor the impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects and can only be determined by looking at real world data results using household data for ten observations on nine low income countries show that the short run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country but that poverty increases are much more frequent and larger than poverty reductions the recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially

hedging against bunker price fluctuations using petroleum futures contracts constant versus time varying hedge ratios the effectiveness of hedging marine bunker price fluctuations in rotterdam singapore and houston is examined using different crude oil and petroleum future contracts traded at the new york mercant

optimal gasoline hedging strategies using futures contracts and exchange traded funds this article employs a variety of econometric models including ols vec var dcc garch and a class of copula based garch models to estimate optimal hedge ratios for gasoline spot prices using gasoline exchange traded funds etfs and gasoline futures contracts we then compare their performance using four different measures from the perspective of both their hedging objectives and trading position using four different measures variance reduction measure utility based measure and two tail based measures value at risk and expected shortfall the impact of the 2008 financial market crisis on hedging performance is also investigated our findings indicate that in terms of variance reduction the static models ols and vec var are found to be the best hedging strategies however more sophisticated time varying hedging strategies could outperform the static hedging models when the other measures are used in addition etf hedging is a more effective hedging strategy than futures hedging during the high

a simple multiperiod minimum risk hedge model a multiperiod hedging model is developed that is simpler than other multiperiod models in the literature the model permits periodic adjustment of the hedge while minimizing the producer s profit variance minimum risk hedge ratios are calculated for steers cows hogs corn and soybeans using the full model with hedge adjustments every two months these ratios are compared to those using the model without periodic hedge adjustments and to a simple single period model the results suggest that simple models may work well for simple hedges while the full model is best for more complex hedging situations such as cross hedges our purpose in this paper is to develop a multiperiod hedging model in which the hedge can be updated each period other multiperiod hedging models e g anderson and danthine karp have substantial data requirements which limit their use as viable hedging tools our aim is to develop a simpler model that will have practical application the model is used to calculate minimum risk hedge ratios for steers cows hogs corn and soybeans and these ratios are compared with hedge ratios based on a multiperiod model in which the hedge cannot be adjusted each period simple minimum risk hedge ratios also are computed for each commodity and compared with the other ratios

comparing climate policies to reduce carbon emissions in china new huadu business school research fund national social science foundation of china 12zd059 shandong social science planning fund program 12djjj12 independent innovation foundation of shandong university iifsdu 2012gn038 ministry of education research of social sciences china postdoctoral science foundation 2013m530309

the economic value of minimum variance hedges the present article examines the potential economic gains from better minimum variance hedge mvh estimates focusing on the assumptions that yield mvhs consistent with expected utility maximization it is found that the economic value of better mvh estimates is negligible and that optimal hedges are substantially different from mvhs when the usual mvh restrictions are relaxed among other things findings suggest that the hedging research s recent emphasis on better mvhs has been a waste of resources investigating the consequences of relaxing the standard mvh assumptions seems to be much more important than recent literature contributions

armstrong meets rochet tirole on the equivalence of different pricing structures in two sided markets abstract we formally show that lump sum participation fees and per interaction fees charged by a monopoly platform in a two sided market are not interchangeable in the presence of price distortions such as ad valorem taxes