cost uncertainty and the rate of investment abstract this paper examines the effect of cost and price uncertainty on the optimal rate of investment by firms within a general equilibrium framework former works which have studied this issue like hartman 1972 and abel 1983 1984 1985 have come to the conclusion that this effect is positive since increased price uncertainty raises expected profitability but these studies assume a fixed discount rate which is equivalent to assuming that consumers are risk neutral this paper shows that if consumers are risk averse the effect of uncertainty may be reversed and investment may be depressed when price or cost uncertainty is increased

structural changes in volatility and stock market development evidence for spain abstract in this paper we review the factors that lead to changes in stock market volatility and use alternative methodologies of endogenous breakpoint detection in order to analyze whether the volatility of the spanish stock market has changed significantly over the period 1941 2001 this period corresponds to years of profound development of both the financial and the productive sides of the economy in this country the analysis of the spanish stock market suggests that volatility has behaved in a different manner over the period 1941 2001 after three decades of low volatility a structural break in volatility is detected in 1972 coinciding with the opening of the spanish economy from 1972 to 2001 the years of more intense financial development the stock market presents a higher level of volatility and lower persistence this effect is partly attributable to the increased growth of trading volume brought about by the economic development process

alternative growth versus security in continuous dynamic trading in this paper we discuss an alternative growth versus security tradeoff in the portfolio decision problem especially the criteria of optimality in the stopping rule profile and the wealth profile suggested by maclean ziemba and blazenko are reconsidered and modified by taking account of a finite horizon of investment and the financial agent s goal seeking behavior respectively the three alternative growth and security profiles are investigated and numerically compared with earlier ones finally we show that kelly strategy is not always good and that the bold strategy is attractive for some criteria rather than kelly strategy moreover we also refer to the effect of the initial endowment for the criteria

competing commitments technocracy and democracy in the design of monetary institutions in this article i refine and expand the agenda for research on monetary institutions first i evaluate the analyses and research designs presented in this special issue of international organization out of this evaluation several ideas about how to produce a third generation of research on this topic emerge specific ideas include how to create a better synthesis with certain branches of economics such as information economics broaden the welfare criteria on which institutional choices are made deepen the analyses of coalitional and other political processes on which the choice of institutions are based and strengthen the tests that are offered in support of these choices in the second part of this article i explore questions of how popular sovereignty over economic policy and institutional choice are achieved i show that the institutional regimes proposed in the special issue are in a sense democratic as long as the public s perceived consensus about economic policies and macroeconomic outcomes is real however if as new work suggests there is genuine dissensus about policy and macroeconomic objectives it is no longer clear that the regimes proposed in the special issue are democratic in the conclusion i briefly discuss a possible crisis of imagination in institutional design

the dynamics of trade unionism and national economic performance i test two theories of the political processes of trade unions the first argues that wage moderation depends on a centralized labor movement the second contends that institutional conditions permitting unions coordination of bargaining strategies is sufficient coordination is most likely to he achieved when there are small number of unions that do not compete for members that is when union monopoly is high important empirical anomalies may be resolved by analyzing the effects of union centralization and monopoly separately rather than combining them into a composite index of corporatism reanalyzing comparative data from organization of economic cooperation and development countries between 1963 and 1985 largely corroborates the hypothesis that monopoly is more important than either centralization or composite indices of corporatism for national economic performance the conceptual rationale underlying indices of corporatism should be reexamined

uncertainty and monetary policy in a wage bargaining model in a wage bargaining model increased uncertainty concerning monetary and real aggregates is shown to give rise to a higher equilibrium unemployment rate moreover the equilibrium unemployment rate is found to depend on the choice of monetary policy regime as this choice affects the uncertainty wage setters face when setting the nominal wage rate it is also shown that the equilibrium inflation rate may depend on uncertainty in such a way that increased uncertainty gives rise to a higher equilibrium unemployment rate as well as a higher equilibrium inflation rate or what has been called stagflation

mixed signals central bank independence coordinated wage bargaining and european monetary union plans for the european monetary union emu are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects however the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank when signaling problems between the central bank and other actors in the political economy are considered we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective greater central bank independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated but it can bring higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is less coordinated thus currency unions like the emu may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage they will have costs as well as benefits and these will be unevenly distributed among and within the member nations depending on the changes they induce in the status of the bank and of wage coordination

the political economy of the euro crisis this article introduces the special issue on the political economy of the euro crisis which aims to improve our understanding of the causes consequences and implications of the highly unusual nature of this crisis a financial crisis among developed countries within a supranational monetary union the article provides a brief chronology of the crisis discusses its underlying causes and reviews the ways in which comparative and international political economy can help us understand the crisis the article then discusses the individual and collective contributions of the articles in the special issue and discusses possible future research paths on the political economy of the euro crisis we conclude with a brief discussion of how a political economy perspective informs our understanding of the long term prospects for the eurozone and european integration

tests of the performance of reduced form exchange rate models this study analyzes the performance of reduced form exchange rate models through a number of tests of specification stability and prediction it confirms earlier tests showing that monetary models do not perform well but it finds more positive results for other models some portfoliobalance models are sufficiently stable to do better than a random walk in post sample tests the study concludes that monetary models are unduly restrictive in the way they incorporate purchasing power parity and perfect asset substitutability

investment and the exchange rate an analysis with firm level panel data abstract this paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and the investment decisions of a sample of italian manufacturing firms the results support the view that a depreciation of the exchange rate has a positive effect on investment through the revenue channel and a negative effect through the cost channel the magnitude of these effects varies over time with changes in the firm s external orientation as measured by the share of foreign sales over total sales and the reliance on imported inputs consistent with the predictions of our theoretical framework the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on investment is stronger for firms with low monopoly power facing a high degree of import penetration in the domestic market and of a small size we also provide evidence that the degree of substitutability between domestically produced and imported inputs influences the effect through the expenditure side

persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks this paper presents a theoretical basis for the argument that large exchange rate shocks such as the 1980s dollar cycle may have persistent effects on trade flows and the equilibrium exchange rate itself we begin with a partial equilibrium model in which large exchange rate fluctuations lead to entry or exit decisions that are not reversed when the currency returns to its previous level then we develop a simple model of the feedback from hysteresis in trade to the exchange rate itself here we see that a large capital inflow which leads to an initial appreciation can result in a persistent reduction in the exchange rate consistent with trade balance

panel data evidence of the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on private investment in south east asia this article examines the impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on the private investment in south east asia using panel data from four countries of the region namely indonesia malaysia the philippines and thailand annual time series data from 1972 to 2001 is used before carrying out the estimation the time series properties of the data are diagnosed and an error correction model is developed and estimated the model is estimated using both the fixed effects and the random effects estimators the estimated results from both the estimations suggest that the real exchange rate uncertainty had a negative effect on the private investment in that region

the reductionist gamble open economy politics in the global economy international political economy ipe should transition to third wave scholarship because open economy politics oep which dominates current american ipe scholarship can generate inaccurate knowledge oep can produce inaccurate knowledge because it studies domestic politics in isolation from international or macro processes this methodological reductionism is often inappropriate for the phenomena ipe studies because governments inhabit a complex social system as a result the political choices that oep strives to explain are typically a product of the interplay between domestic politics and macro processes when oep omits causally significant macro processes from empirical models the models yield biased inferences about the domestic political relationships under investigation although scholars tolerated such errors when the gains from oep were large these errors are less tolerable now that oep has matured consequently the field should transition toward research that is nonreductionist problem driven and pluralistic

a goal seeking investment model a probabilistic investment model is formulated as a wiener process with a barrier a planning horizon targeted rate of return discount rate and the mean and variance rate of return are the important parameters in the model sensitivity analyses are studied several significant statements can be made 1 contrary to traditional mean variance portfolio models rate of return variance may not always be an undesirable characteristic since higher variance can increase the chances of achieving certain types of investment goals 2 one can almost always achieve certain types of investment goals if the time horizon is sufficiently long

foreign direct investment exchange rate variability and demand uncertainty variable real exchange rates influence the location of production facilities chosen by a multinational with risk averse investors and fixed productive factors parent companies should not be indifferent to production location even with identical expected costs of production across countries if a nonnegative correlation exists between export demand and exchange rate shocks the multinational optimally locates some productive capacity abroad the capacity share abroad increases as exchange rate volatility rises and becomes more correlated with export demand shocks these results are confirmed using quarterly u s bilateral foreign direct investment flows with canada japan and the united kingdom copyright 1995 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment in this paper we investigate how oil price volatility affects the strategic investment decisions of a large panel of us firms this paper uses key insights from the real options literature to develop a model of a company s strategic investment and shows how changes in oil price volatility can impact strategic investment decisions the model is estimated using recently developed generalized method of moment estimation techniques for panel data sets empirical results are presented to show that there is a u shaped relationship between oil price volatility and firm investment this is consistent with the predictions from the strategic growth options literature the results should be useful to decision makers investors managers policy makers and others who need to make strategic investment decisions in an uncertain world

economic policy uncertainty and dollar pound exchange rate return volatility abstract the extent to which economic policy uncertainty epu amplifies exchange rate volatility has been an important research question for at least a decade previous research has investigated this relationship using monthly data concluding that epu imparts an effect on exchange rate volatility either contemporaneously or with a one month lag the use of monthly frequency however may not provide an accurate causal interpretation and may even compromise the accuracy of the estimates if the natural cycles of epu are shorter than a month to address this econometric concern i construct uncertainty measures at a daily frequency and estimate a garch model using daily usd british pound returns the evidence indicates that epu contributes to exchange rate volatility much more quickly than monthly data can detect using a regression technique for separating epu from non policy economic uncertainty i find that non policy market uncertainty increases volatility more than epu does

international interdependencies in fiscal stabilization policies abstract trade links imply that business cycle fluctuations are transmitted among trade partners to the extent that fiscal policy can mitigate business cycle fluctuations international interdependencies in stabilization policies arise we analyse in a two country general equilibrium model the role of fiscal policy in mitigating risk or providing implicit insurance in the presence of capital market imperfections and adjustment failures rigid wages it is shown that there is a welfare case for an active stabilization policy and that it is larger in the presence of adjustment failures rigid wages non cooperative policy decisions imply inefficiencies in fiscal stabilization policies which in the case of flexible wages may imply too much stabilization whereas stabilization is always insufficient in the case of rigid wages

determinants of inflationary performance corporatist structures vs central bank autonomy studies by economists have shown that countries with autonomous central banks experience lower inflation than others banian laney and willett 1983 and bade and parkin 1987 one reason for this may be that countries with autonomous central banks are less likely to monetize their deficits burdekin and wahar 1990 studies by political scientists have used measures of the strength of corporatist structures to explain macroeconomic outcomes cameron 1984 however neither economics nor political science research has employed measures of both central bank autonomy and the strength of corporatist structures to explain comparative inflation rates the present paper tests whether measures of corporatist structures and central bank autonomy explain the comparative inflation performance of eighteen industrialized countries this issue is of great importance for students of piecemeal monetary reform in countries where the central banking structure is susceptible to reorganization the results of this paper should inform parties who are active in the reformation and reorganization of central banks in lesser developed and nascent market economics throughout the world

firm outsourcing decisions evidence from u s foreign trade zones deborah l swenson this article examines the operations of firms located in u s foreign trade subzones to study the responsiveness of outsourcing to international cost changes i find that firms reduce their reliance on foreign inputs when dollar depreciation increases the relative price of imported inputs the effect is pervasive across industries and is economically significant in addition firms that rely more heavily on imported intermediate inputs reduce their overall shipments when dollar depreciation elevates their imported input costs however the magnitude of the shipments effect is economically small suggesting that firms respond to exchange rate movements by adjusting their operations on other dimensions jel f23 f1 i introduction during the nafta debates u s industry argued that it would be placed at a competitive disadvantage if it failed to gain access to mexican parts that benefited from tariff reductions in the absence of such benefits it was argued that u s firms might even move their production off shore at the same time u s trade unions expressed great concern that jobs and high levels of economic activity would be lost if nafta caused a rise in the outsourcing of intermediate inputs although these countervailing concerns have attracted much attention very little is known about the responsiveness of firm outsourcing to relative price changes or about its secondary effects on firm shipments since outsourcing decisions are made at the firm level and appropriate data is rarely available to researchers this article seeks to address this void by analyzing a data set that provides information on these purchasing and shipment decisions recent aggregate evidence indicates that firms are purchasing an increasing portion of their intermediate inputs from their foreign affiliates or from unrelated parties located abroad 1 it is argued that advances in transportation and communications have facilitated the trend toward the dispersion of production activities while the aggregate trends are striking little research has focused on individual firm decisions one exception is brainard and riker s 1997 examination of multinational firms employment choices as they respond to international wage changes brainard and riker conclude that the degree of firm substitution among a firm s numerous foreign affiliates is much higher than that between parent firms and their foreign affiliates which is relatively small this labor market evidence suggests that foreign affiliate labor is not easily substituted for home labor and that the two may even be complements 2 in contrast a higher degree of substitutability is implied by work including feenstra a nd hanson 1996 and irwin 1996 for the united states or campa and goldberg 1997 for the united states united kingdom japan and canada which documents that the usage of imported intermediate inputs has increased in almost all cases since the 1970s 3 this article studies the issue of input sourcing flexibility and its consequences by examining individual firm decisions the analysis is based on the activities of a set of firms located in u s foreign trade subzones i focus on this subset of firms since the u s foreign trade subzones program provides a unique opportunity to examine firm level decisions regarding inputs and shipments the reporting requirements of the foreign trade zones program enable us to view aspects of firm sourcing decisions that are usually unobservable i use two estimation methods to measure the general substitutability of inputs and outsourcing flexibility first i develop a constant elasticity of substitution ces model of input demand i then use nonlinear least squares techniques to estimate the underlying demand parameters implied by the structural equations i then perform a tobit analysis of firm sourcing decisions the benefit of the second form of analysis is that it allows me to study additional determinants of outsourcing and it does not require strong assumptions about the functional form of the production function

multiple wage bargaining systems in the single european currency area little attention in the emu literature has been paid to the interaction between central bank monetary rules and systems of collective wage bargaining analytically and empirically coordinated wage bargaining systems respond with real wage restraint to non accommodating monetary policy since wage determination is dominated by collective bargaining in all the emu member states and wage coordination within the member states has grown since 1980 this is a topic of potential importance in particular the replacement of the bundesbank directly targeting german inflation by an ecb targeting european inflation has removed a major institutional support of wage restraint in germany the consequences of this for emu are worked out under two scenarios that inflation expectations will be generated by ecb monetary policy and that they will reflect german inflation outcomes possible institutional developments are discussed including government union bargains the bundesbank has also played a major role in maintaining fiscal rectitude by targeting excess fiscal deficits in germany again its replacement by the ecb targeting if at all european rather than german fiscal policy loosens fiscal constraints for underlying structural reasons therefore it is possible that germany and other emu countries will move to a period of fiscal activism with wage restraint and low inflation purchased through social contract negotiations

unemployment benefits contract length and nominal wage flexibility we show in a union bargaining model that a decrease in the unemployment benefit level increases not only equilibrium employment but also nominal wage flexibility and thus reduces employment varia

on the measurement of the international propagation of shocks is the transmission stable abstract the empirical literature on contagion focuses mainly on two questions 1 what are the channels through which shocks are transmitted across countries trade macro similarities financial weaknesses or investor behavior 2 is there a shift in the transmission of shocks during crises are crises spread with higher intensity if so why this paper concentrates on the econometric problems that arise in dealing with the second question the data where most of these issues are raised are plagued with problems of simultaneous equations omitted variables and heteroskedasticity the standard methodologies used in the literature are inappropriate if all three are present this paper applies a new procedure that allows one to test for parameter stability taking into account all three predicaments the paper tests for the stability of the transmission mechanisms among 36 stock markets during the last three major international financial crises mexico 1994 asia 1997 and russia 1998

is there a european wage leader wage spillovers in the european monetary union the introduction of the euro had been accompanied by expectations of increased inflationary pressures due to a de coordination shock to national wage bargaining systems though if anything systematically happened after the introduction of the euro wage restraint increased this paper argues that an interdependency of wage setting under german dominance has emerged in europe which fuelled the transmission of mutual wage restraint we will investigate wage and nominal unit labour cost spillovers in the european monetary union emu exploring a panel of 13 manufacturing sectors from 1992 to 2005 and quantify the effects of different countries strong interdependencies across emu member countries with regard to nominal wage growth are found a leading role accrues to germany which is responsible for a cumulative reduction of trans european wage growth rates of 0 62 by conservative estimates remarkably the influence of germany is strongest on southern europe with regard to wage growth interdependencies however the situation is inverted with regard to the development of nominal unit labour costs where the german influence on southern europe is substantially weaker than on neighbouring economies copyright the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

growth and exchange rate volatility a panel data analysis the aim of this article is to assess the role of real exchange rate rer volatility on long run economic growth for a set of 82 advanced and emerging economies using a panel data set ranging from 1970 to 2009 with an accurate measure for exchange rate volatility the results for the two step system generalized method of moments gmm panel growth models show that a more less volatile rer has a significant negative positive impact on economic growth the results are also robust for different model specifications

the unemployment effect of exchange rate volatility in industrial countries using data on 17 industrial countries from 1982 to 2003 and controlling for a wide array of factors this paper finds that higher exchange rate volatility increases the unemployment rate the magnitude of the effect is small the results are robust to variations in specification

government partisanship labor organization and macroeconomic performance governments of the left and right have distinct partisan economic policies and objectives that they would prefer to pursue their propensity to do so however is constrained by their desire for reelection we argue that the ability of governments to further their partisan interests and preside over reelectable macroeconomic outcomes simultaneously is dependent on the organization of the domestic economy particularly the labor movement we hypothesize that there are two different paths to desirable macroeconomic performance in countries with densely and centrally organized labor movements leftist governments can promote economic growth and reduce inflation and unemployment conversely in countries with weak labor movements rightist governments can pursue their partisan preferred macroeconomic strategies and achieve similarly beneficial macroeconomic outcomes performance will be poorer in other cases these hypotheses are supported by analysis of pooled annual time series data for 16 advanced industrial democracies between 1967 and 1984

trade union density and inflation performance evidence from oecd panel data this paper examines the impact of union membership rates on inflation in oecd countries a positive effect of union density is estimated even after controlling for fixed effects and time dummies additional institutional characteristics for example union coordination employment protection laws and central bank independence do not affect inflation directly in a panel setting but do influence the size of the unionization coefficient via interaction terms the results are robust to controlling for potential common causes such as oil price shocks and the political stance of the government and to using gmm iv techniques to handle possible endogeneity biases

growth versus security in dynamic investment analysis this paper concerns the problem of optimal dynamic choice in discrete time for an investor in each period the investor is faced with one or more risky investments the maximization of the expected

how does uncertainty about future fiscal policy affect current macroeconomic variables a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium macromodel is constructed based on infinitely lived dynamically optimising households with labour market monopoly power randomness in future government spending causes randomness in the future output and price levels both when the money wage is flexible and when it is set one period in advance we show that through three different mechanisms rational anticipation of this depresses current aggregate demand if the wage is preset it thereby also depresses current output such fiscal uncertainty is suggested as one possible explanation for the faltering of the economic recovery in europe in 1995 and 1996

government partisanship labor organization and macroeconomic performance a corrigendum alvarez garrett and lange 1991 used cross national data panel data on the organization for economic coordination and development nations to show that countries with left governments and encompassing labor movements enjoyed superior economic performance here we show that the standard errors reported in that article are incorrect reestimation of the model using ordinary least squares and robust standard errors upholds the major finding of alvarez garrett and lange regarding the political and institutional causes of economic growth but leaves the findings for unemployment and inflation open to question we show that the model used by alvarez garrett and lange feasible generalized least squares cannot produce standard errors when the number of countries analyzed exceeds the length of the time period under analysis also we argue that ordinary least squares with robust standard errors is superior to feasible generalized least square for typical cross national panel studies

exchange rate variability and wage formation in open economies abstract exchange rate variability is shown to influence wage formation in open economies with strong unions increased exchange rate variability may thus increase real and product wages and lower employment hence a stable and predictable exchange rate policy may have some gain

the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the level of investment conventional wisdom has it that increasing price or exchange rate uncertainty will depress investment using the dixit pindyck model we find that there are situations where this will happen and situations where it does not there are threshold effects which allows us to identify when rising volatility would increase or decrease investment and also to identify which types of industries would gain and which would suffer from a move to fixed exchange rates this is important for monetary union in europe since it is likely that even if trade is insensitive to exchange rate volatility investment with its longer horizon will be affected textbook theories of investment under uncertainty present a rather oversimplified rule for a firm deciding whether to invest or not if the project s expected net present value npv is positive the firm invests otherwise it does not this implies that if the investment is reversible the firm will simply disinvest if the npv turns negative but if investment is irreversible then if a firm decides not to invest it will never invest this is not a realistic approach given uncertainty firms often find it convenient to wait rather than to commit themselves one way or another waiting is therefore a proper alternative to investing or not investing and firms will be confronted with an invest wait do not invest decision rather than an invest do not invest one dixit and pindyck 1994 have developed a model in which the option value of an investment project is evaluated to represent the value of waiting that option value then becomes part of the investment costs because once an irreversible investment is made the possibility of exercising this option to invest later on when better information is available has been lost thus the decision rule is still invest if npv 0 otherwise do not invest but the npv now represents the present value of the expected revenues less the value of the option to invest later less the present value of any other investment costs in this paper we extend the dixit pindyck model for varying degrees of uncertainty and price drift and specifically for the case where that uncertainty is caused by exchange rate volatility such an extension is important not only because it is a new development but also because we need to understand how monetary union will affect investment expenditures in europe for simplicity we assume the domestic prices are fixed and that the only uncertainty is in the exchange rate and hence the domestic value of foreign currency revenues that leaves us with various problems the first is to determine the threshold at which exchange rate price uncertainty is sufficient to affect investment adversely second under what conditions does that uncertainty actually reduce investment third do exchange rate misalignments or exchange rate volatility damage investment more we show that answers to such questions can be c55

central bank independence and macroeconomic performance some comparative evidence this note uses information on a sample of sixteen oecd countries to assess the relationship between central bank independence and macroeconomic performance as previous work suggests politically controlled central banks are more likely to pursue policies that lead to high and variable inflation however the authors find little evidence that political control of central bank policy has any impact on measures of the level or variability of growth unemployment or the ex ante real interest rate copyright 1993 by ohio state university press

optimal wage indexation with exchange rate uncertainty in an oligopolistic and unionized economy abstract the role of wage indexation as a policy instrument in a model of an oligopolistic and unionized economy is examined there is uncertainty on the future exchange rate evolution when writing labour contracts optimal indexation is shown to depend on product market characteristics

investment pass through and exchange rates a cross country comparison using detailed data from the united states canada the united kingdom and japan we examine the implications of exchange rates for time series of sectoral investment both theoretically and empirically we show that investment responsiveness to exchange rates varies over time positively in relation to sectoral reliance on export share and negatively with respect to the share of imported inputs in production important differences exist in investment endogeneity across high and low price over cost markup sectors with investment in low markup sectors often significantly more responsive to exchange rates cross country differences in investment response are only partially explained by industrial organization arguments

oil price and usd naira exchange rate crash can economic diversification save the naira abstract naira lost half of its foreign exchange value in less than two years following 2014 oil price crash and has not recovered despite numerous government s attempts this study thus evaluated the potential of economic diversification proxied by non oil export performance in saving the naira by analysing a nexus between oil price exchange rate and nonoil export estimation of a rearranged current account equation within autoregressive distributed lag ardl and vector autoregressive var models using monthly data from january 2008 to december 2015 yielded the following results there is a direct relationship between oil price and exchange rate and this affirms that sharp decline in the former induced the latter s deterioration increase in non oil exports led to appreciation of usd naira exchange rate both in the short run and the long run import on the other hand induced depreciation of the exchange rate in the long run diversification by increasing export revenue and reducing import bills therefore has a great potential to improve the value of naira

investment in manufacturing exchange rates and external exposure abstract this paper introduces a new measure of external exposure which emphasizes exposure to external markets both through export sales and imported inputs into production and uses this measure to explore the linkage between exchange rates and investment in us industry on average manufacturing sectors have evolved to being primarily import exposed by the early 1980s in low price over cost markup sectors markups are relatively unresponsive to exchange rate changes whereas sectoral investment patterns are strongly affected by contrast high markup industries absorb much of the exchange rate fluctuations in markups and pass relatively little through to real investment

on the sign of the investment uncertainty relationship understanding the effects of uncertainty over any decision variable has fascinated economists for a long time risk aversion and incomplete markets are likely to make the investment uncertainty relationship negative e g roger craine 1989 joseph zeira 1989 what happens in the absence of risk aversion and incomplete markets is however ambiguous richard hartman 1972 and andrew b abel 1983 1984 1985 found that in the presence of symmetric convex costs of adjustment mean preserving increases in price uncertainty raise investment of a competitive firm as long as the profit function is convex in prices on the other hand the recent literature on irreversible investment e g robert s pindyck 1988 giuseppe bertola 1988 has shown that increases in uncertainty lower investment all these results have been derived under either risk neutrality or complete markets intuition suggests that the explanation for such a difference lies with the asymmetric nature of adjustment costs in the irreversible investment case as compared with the symmetry of the adjustment cost mechanisms proposed by abel and hartman although this intuition is confirmed in this paper asymmetric adjustment costs are shown not to be sufficient to explain why the results differ in fact a more hidden but at least as important difference between these two literatures is that the former assumes perfect competition and constant returns to scale whereas the latter assumes either imperfect competition or decreasing returns to scale or both 2 the purpose of this paper is to highlight the role of the decreasing marginal return to capital assumption due to either imperfect competition or decreasing returns to scale or both in determining the effects of adjustment cost asymmetries on the sign of the response of investment to changes in uncertainty under risk neutrality for this the paper develops a simple model with a cost of adjustment mechanism general enough to consider both symmetric convexity and irreversibility as special cases one of the most important findings is the lack of robustness of the negative relationship between investment and uncertainty under asymmetric adjustment costs3 to changes in the degree of competition in fact when firms are nearly competitive the conclusion of hartman and of abel holds no matter how asymmetric adjustment costs are studying adjustment cost mechanisms has a central role in understanding the dynamics of investment and its business cycle implications but conclusive results about the sign of the instantaneous relationship between uncertainty and investment should not be department of economics columbia university new york ny 10027 i am grateful to giuseppe bertola prajit dutta glen hubbard anil kashyap richard lyons and the referees for their useful comments 1the financial literature on investment has considered risk aversion through a premium in the discount rate determined by the capm capital asset pricing model intertemporal capm or consumption capm however often this discount rate is left unchanged when studying the response of investment to uncertainty changes e g pindyck 1988 pp 974 5 thereby omitting the effect of changes in uncertainty on investment due to risk aversion and incomplete markets 2in the typical version of the irreversible investment problem there is no cost of upward adjustments thus imperfect competition and or decreasing returns to scale are required to bound the size of the firm 3in this paper asymmetric adjustment cost refers to the case in which it is more expensive to adjust downward than upward certainly the opposite case is a trivial extension of the case studied in this paper

exchange rate uncertainty and the level of investment in selected south east asian countries the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on aggregate private investment in indonesia malaysia the philippines and thailand is examined using time series data from 1972 2000 since the use of non stationary time series data may produce spurious results the data series are tested for stationarity using the augmented dickey fuller and phillips perron tests after establishing the stationarity of the data series cointegration tests are performed the cointegration test results reject the hypothesis of no cointegration therefore an error correction model is developed and estimated the estimated results point to an inconclusive empirical relationship between real exchange rate volatility and aggregate private investment

macroeconomic strategies towards internal and external balance in the nordic countries the aim of this paper is to clarify the policy strategies pursued in the nordic countries in the 1970s and 1980s to attain internal and external balance a distinction is made between i a bridging strategy ii a sheltering or adaptive strategy and iii a production strategy of export led growth these strategies are characterized and related to the experience of the

the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on exports empirical evidence unless very specific assumptions are made theory alone cannot determine the sign of the relation between real exchange rate uncertainty and exports on the one hand convexity of the profit function with respect to prices implies that an increase in price uncertainty raises the expected returns in the export sector on the other potential asymmetries in the cost of adjusting factors of production for example investment irreversibility and risk aversion tend to make the uncertainty exports relation negative this article examines these issues using a simple risk aversion model export equations allowing for uncertainty are then estimated for six developing countries contrary to the ambiguity of the theory the empirical relation is strongly negative estimates indicate that a 5 percent increase in the annual standard deviation of the real exchange rate can reduce exports by 2 to 30 percent in the short run these effects are substantially magnified in the long run

exchange rates and investment in united states industry the path of the dollar has significantly influenced investment activity in u s industry the effects of both exchange rate levels and exchange rate volatility have been more pronounced in the 1980s than in the 1970s although aggregate investment data mask some of these relationships the effects of exchange rates on investment are most pronounced in the disaggregate data for manufacturing durable goods sectors and nonmanufacturing sectors these relationships also have changed over time in contrast to the conventional wisdom in the 1980s real dollar depreciations appreciations were likely to be associated with investment contractions expansions copyright 1993 by mit press

the impact of output and exchange rate volatility on fixed private investment evidence from selected g7 countries this study examines the impact of shocks to exchange rate and output uncertainty volatility on real private fixed investment fi in canada germany the united kingdom and the united states the analysis is conducted using vector autoregressive models that contain the price level real output the volatility of real output the real exchange rate the volatility of the real exchange rate an interest rate and fi the results yield important public policy implications with regard to the impact of output volatility of fi our analysis indicates that volatility shocks measured as output volatility or exchange rate volatility do not have a significant impact on fi for any country in our study

partially independent central banks politically responsive governments and inflation theories of central bank independence have more exact implications regarding inflation in different political economic environments than generally understood or empirically examined they imply that inflation in any given country time will be a weighted average of what it would be if the central bank completely controlled monetary policy and what it would be if the government completely controlled it with the degree of central bank independence weighting the former an equation embodying this theoretical expectation is estimated by constrained least squares from a time series cross section of inflation rates in developed democracies since the bretton woods era the results confirm that the antiinflationary benefit of central bank independence is not constant but rather depends on every variable in the broader politicaleconomic environment to which wholly autonomous central banks and governments would respond differently conversely the inflationary impacts of all such political economic variables depend on the degree of central bank independence

the impact of exchange rate volatility on plant level investment evidence from colombia abstract we estimate the impact of exchange rate volatility on firms investment decisions in a developing country setting employing plant level panel data from the colombian manufacturing census we estimate a dynamic investment equation using the system gmm estimator developed by arellano and bover 1995 and blundell and bond 1998 we find a robust negative impact of exchange rate volatility constructed either using a garch model or a simple standard deviation measure on plant investment consistent with theory we also document that the negative effect is mitigated for establishments with higher mark up or exports and exacerbated for lower mark up plants with larger volume of imported intermediates

exchange rates and traded goods prices abstract this paper presents a partial equilibrium model of the determination of domestic and export prices by a monopolistic competitive firm the model stresses the role of exchange rate uncertainty and expectations the most important result of the analysis is that the stochastic properties of deviations from the law of one price are crucially affected by the currency of denomination of export prices using data on domestic and dollar export prices of japanese goods i find that deviations from the law of one price are due to exchange rate surprises but also to price staggering and ex ante price discrimination

the origins of persistent current account imbalances in the post bretton woods era why do some countries run persistent current account surpluses why do others run deficits often over decades leading to enduring global imbalances such persistent imbalances are the root cause of many financial crises and a major source of international economic conflict we propose that differences in wage bargaining institutions explain a large share of imbalances through their effect on the trade balance in countries with coordinated wage bargaining wage growth in export industries can be restrained to ensure competitiveness leading to persistent trade surpluses we estimate the contribution of these institutions to trade balances in organisation for economic co operation and development oecd member countries since 1977 and find ample support for our hypothesis contrary to much of the literature the choice of fixed or floating exchange rate regimes has only a small effect on trade or current account balances in other words internal adjustment in surplus countries via wage bargaining institutions trumps external adjustment by deficit countries

the real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the united states relative wealth vs relative wage effects abstract there has been a significant correlation between u s inward foreign direct investment and the united states real exchange rate since the 1970s in this paper we examine the determinants of four measures of inward foreign direct investment to the united states from seven industrial countries over the period 1979 1991 we find strong evidence that relative wealth significantly affects u s inward foreign direct investment we find no evidence that relative wages have a significant impact on the determination of u s foreign direct investment

real exchange rate uncertainty private investment in ldcs this paper examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country time series data set the paper builds a garch based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative effect on investment after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity the effect of uncertainty is not uniform however there is some evidence of threshold effects so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level in addition the negative effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems

the impact of exchange rate deviations from relative ppp equilibrium on the u s demand for foreign equities abstract applying fixed effects panel data this study investigates the impact of u s dollar exchange rate movements during different exchange rate states overvaluation and undervaluation on the monthly real gross and real net purchases of foreign equities by u s residents over the post plaza accord period the foreign equities come from 22 developed and 25 developing countries previous research has posited two alternative hypotheses regarding the relationship between exchange rates and foreign investment these are the wealth effect and the profit oriented effect the evidence herein suggests that these two hypotheses coexist we find robust evidence for a negative relationship between the exchange rate movements of an undervalued u s dollar and the demand for foreign equities for developed countries the wealth effect dominates the profit oriented effect when the u s dollar is overvalued while for developing countries the profit oriented effect dominates the wealth effect the results emphasize the importance of considering exchange rate states derived from a relative ppp equilibrium when analyzing u s allocations to foreign equities the findings with respect to the macroeconomic control variables are mainly in agreement with the predictions of international financial theory some of the results however disappear or become inconclusive for the period after the bankruptcy of lehman brothers this may be explained by the increased uncertainty in international financial markets following this unprecedented event the findings are robust with respect to different constructed equilibrium exchange rates

international and domestic constraints on political business cycles in oecd economies the effect of increased capital mobility on the national control of macroeconomic policy continues to be a topic of debate empirical contributions to this debate share the assumption that domestic macroeconomic policy is driven by either partisan or countercyclical motivations and that the effects of international financial flows have roughly similar effects in all countries this article reevaluates the integration hypothesis in a framework in which manipulations of the macroeconomy derive from opportunistic motivations the article emphasizes the ways in which prior institutional choices effect the way these motivations are translated into actions evidence from individual country and pooled time series tests suggests that opportunistic cycles are less likely to occur when 1 a government maintains a fixed exchange rate in the presence of highly mobile capital or 2 when the central bank enjoys above average independence

rational and self fulfilling balance of payments crises speculative attacks on a pegged exchange rate must sometimes occur ifasset price paths are to be free of abnormal profit opportunities suchattacks are fully rational as they reflect the market s response to aregime breakdown that is inevitable the authors shows that under someexpectations about policy balance of payments crises can also be purely self fulfilling events in such cases even a permanently viableregime may collapse and the economy will possess multiple equilibriacorresponding to different subjective assessments of the probability ofa crisis the behavior of the domestic interest rate will naturally reflect the possibility of a speculative attack copyright 1986 by american economic association

presidential influence on the federal reserve in the 1970 s this research examined presidential influence on federal reserve monetary policy in the 1970s a reaction function for the change in the federal funds rate was estimated and then checked to determine whether that reaction function shifted at politically important points the two political influences studied were elections and administration the federal reserve did not appear to manipulate the money supply in 1972 to aid president nixon s reelection the reaction function shifted between the nixon and ford administrations it did not shift with the ascension of carter and it did not shift with the replacement of chairman arthur burns by chairman william miller

nominal rigidity and monetary uncertainty in a small open economy temporary nominal rigidity is introduced into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy the foreign country is also modelled and is the closed economy counterpart of the domestic country we examine whether a small open economy is more vulnerable than a closed economy to uncertainty over its monetary policy a signal of an increase in future variability which was not previously foreseen as a risk by agents is shown to weaken the current exchange rate and boost current output in the small open economy in the equivalent closed economy it has no effect on current variables

perspectives on positive political economy this volume serves as an introduction to the field of positive political economy and the economic and political processes with which it is concerned this new research tradition is distinct from both normative and historical approaches to political economy grounded in the rational actor methodology of microeconomics positive political economy is the study of rational decisions in a context of political and economic institutions more analytical than traditional approaches it is concerned with the derivation of principles and propositions against which real world experience may be compared its focus is on empirical regularities and its goal is theoretical explanation the field has focused on three main areas of research models of collective action constraints on competitive market processes and the analysis of transaction costs developments in all of these areas are covered in the book the first part of the volume surveys the field while the second part displays positive political economy at work examining a variety of subjects the final part contains essays by leading political economists on the theoretical foundations of the field

designing eu us atlantic monetary relations exchange rate variability and labour markets the variability of the euro seems to have a statistically significant and economically small but non negligible impact on labour markets in euroland unemployment tends to increase and employment growth tends to fall whenever the effective exchange rate of the euro or the bilateral euro dollar exchange rate becomes more variable in the us a similar effect seems to be operating but it is statistically less strong especially concerning employment growth which seems largely insulated from exchange rate variability these results fit the general observation that us labour markets are more flexible and that the euro area is considerably more open than the us exports of goods and services amount to close to 18 per cent of euroland gdp versus only about 11 per cent for the us

emerging markets and heavy tails abstract emerging countries are held to be subject to more frequent and more pronounced external and internal shocks than their developed counter parts this suggests that key variables pertaining to their markets including their exchange rates will be marked by greater likelihood of extreme observations and large fluctuations we focus on the hypothesis that compared to developed country exchange rates emerging country exchange rates will be more pronouncedly heavy tailed we find support for the hypothesis using recently proposed robust tail index estimation methods which in particular perform well under heavy tailed dependent garch processes that are often used for modeling exchange rates according to the estimation results reported in the paper variances may be infinite for several emerging country exchange rates tail index values p 2 6 2 8 appear to be at the dividing boundary between the two sets of countries while the moments of order p 2 6 2 8 are finite for most of the developed country exchange rates they may be or are infinite for most of the emerging country exchange rates we also study the impact of the on going financial and economic crisis and find that heavy tailedness properties of most exchange rates did not change significantly with the onset of the crisis at the same time some foreign exchange markets have experienced structural changes in their heavy tailedness properties during the crisis

what do we know about investment under uncertainty recent theoretical developments relating to investment under uncertainty have highlighted the importance of irreversibility for the timing of investment expenditures and their expected returns this has subsequently stimulated a growing empirical literature which examines uncertainty and threshold effects on investment behaviour this paper presents a review of this literature a variety of methods have been used to investigate the empirical implication of irreversibility in investment the majority focusing on the relationship between investment flows and proxy measures of uncertainty a general conclusion is that increased uncertainty at both aggregate and disaggregate levels leads to lower investment rates this suggests that there is an irreversibility effect under which greater uncertainty raises the value of the call option to delay a commitment to investment this effect appears to dominate any positive impact on investment arising from the fact that greater uncertability under certain circumstances increases the marginal profitability of capital the methods used raise a number of issues which call into question the reliability of the findings and these are addressed in the paper however if such irreversibility effects are present then their omission from traditional investment models casts doubt on the efficacy of such specifications jel classification d81 d92 e22

coping with terms of trade shocks pegs versus floats the choice of the exchange rate regime has always been an area of great controversy and debate the discussion has once again taken center stage in the developing world the sequence of currency crises in the 1990 s the success of cultency board arrangements the dollarization plan of ecuador and the apparent swing toward flexible regimes of many emerging economies has revived interest in this debate milton friedman 1953 argued that one of the most important advantages of flexible regimes over fixed regimes is that they can smooth adjustment to real shocks even in the presence of nominal rigidities ever since this has been one of the least disputed benefits attributed to fully flexible exchange rate regimes subsequent to friedman many theories of the international transmission of real shocks have confirmed the original intuition that the shortrun responses to terms of trade shocks should be different across exchange rate regimes here i look at a post bretton woods sample of 74 developing countries to test whether flexible regimes can buffer terms of trade shocks better than fixed regimes

active stabilization policy and uninsurable risks abstract active demand management policies may have positive welfare effects through the implicit social insurance provided by stabilizing wrt to uninsurable risks the present paper presents an intertemporal general equilibrium model for an economy with a capital market imperfection and shows that monetary policy is effective and that there is a positive welfare effect of an active stabilization policy the welfare effect arises via a reduction of risk premia in wages