remittances and the informal economy abstract many developing countries are characterized by a large informal sector and are also often heavily dependent on remittance inflows from abroad we develop a general equilibrium framework to understand better the dynamic absorption of remittances in a two sector small open economy by incorporating many of the stylized features of the informal sector calibrating the model to yield a long run equilibrium consistent with sample averages for 56 developing countries for the period 1990 2014 we show that the effect of remittances depends critically on how they impinge on the recipient economy i e whether these inflows are i permanent or temporary ii associated with a collateral effect to securitize borrowing and iii exogenous or countercyclical we also identify the conditions under which remittances are associated with an expansion of the informal sector as well as the dutch disease effect

moral hazard in lending and labor market volatility when the economy experiences a sharp economic downturn credit spreads widen and project financing costs for firms rise as funding sources begin to dry up the economy experiences a lengthy recovery with unemployment rates slow to return to full employment levels we develop a model that displays these features it relies on an interaction between labor search frictions and firm level moral hazard that is accentuated during recessions the model is capable of addressing the shimer puzzle with labor market variables exhibiting significantly more volatility on average as a result of the heightened moral hazard concerns during these episodes that significantly deepen and prolong periods of high unemployment as vacancy postings fall dramatically and the job finding rate declines our mechanism is also found to induce internal shock propagation causing the peak response of output unemployment and wages to occur with a several quarter delay relative to a model without such frictions many other labor market variables also show slower recovery their return to preshock level occurs at a slower pace for a number of periods after the peak response

carbon efficiency and carbon abatement costs of coal fired power enterprises a case of shanghai china abstract in this paper we adopt a non radial directional distance function to analyze the efficiency and shadow price of co2 emissions of coal fired power plants using a sample of shanghai s 20 coal fired power plants we find that the efficiency performance of power plants remained steady during the period 2007 2010 on average the carbon abatement costs of shanghai s power plants increased from 20 58 yuan ton to 39 67 yuan ton during 2007 2010 although the average shadow price of the power plants increased during the period the price was still well below shadow prices for the energy consumption of the industries and a little lower than the trading price in the ets markets in addition the paper discusses the implications of the findings

the effect of taxes on labor supply in the underground economy this paper uses micro data from a randomized survey carried out in the metropolitan area of quebec city canada to analyze the decision to evade taxes and work in the underground economy the results indicate that taxes distort labor market activities away from the regular sector to the underground sector but the distortion is small for the average worker the distortion is large however for particular groups of the population such as welfare claimants copyright 1994 by american economic association

regulatory discretion and the unofficial economy johnson kaufmann and shleifer 1997 find that the share of the unofficial economy in gdp is determined by the extent of control rights held by politicians and bureaucrats in post communist economies exploring in more detail the role of bribes and using a broader data set from the oecd latin america and transition economies we find that the unofficial economy accounts for a larger share of gdp when there is more corruption and when the rule of law is weaker while these findings are consistent with the earlier results for transition economies in the larger country sample we find it is not necessarily the case that more regulation or higher taxes directly increases the size of the unofficial economy the problem appears to be not regulation or taxation per se but whether the state administrative system can operate without corruption a high level of regulatory discretion helps create the potential for corruption and drive firms into the unofficial economy

dodging the grabbing hand the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries across 69 countries higher tax rates are associated with less unofficial activity as a percent of gdp but corruption is associated with more unofficial activity entrepreneurs go underground not to avoid official taxes but to reduce the burden of bureaucracy and corruption dodging the grabbing hand in this way reduces tax revenues as a percent of both official and total gdp as a result corrupt governments become small governments and only relatively uncorrupt governments can sustain high tax rates 2000 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

measuring the hidden economy implications for econometric modelling in this paper i support using econometric techniques to measure the size of the hidden underground economy because such information is important for the construction of certain economic models and for empirical policy analysis generally detailed information on the output of the hidden economy is unavailable even where careful measures of the underground economy have been constructed usually these data are available only periodically important exceptions are the classic results of tanzi 1983 for the united states and bhattacharyya s 1990 series for the united kingdom in the case of the new zealand economy a time series of data on the hidden economy has been generated recently giles 1997a this provides the unusual opportunity to undertake econometric modelling in a way which takes account of such activity formally moreover we can examine the policy implications arising from the linkages between hidden output and various measured economic aggregates this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the ins and outs of european unemployment in this paper we study the contribution of inflows and outflows to the dynamics of unemployment in three european countries the united kingdom france and spain all countries are interesting in their own right and in the comparison with each other britain s labour markets were strictly regulated up to the mid 1980s but they have been liberalized since then france is still a regulated economy compared with britain with unemployment averaging about 8 spain has had the biggest rise in unemployment in europe reaching 24 in the mid 1990s but policy reforms and fast growth since then brought it down to a level below france s we compare performance in these three countries making use of both administrative and labor force survey data we find that the impact of the 1980s reforms in britain is evident in the contributions of the inflow and outflow rates the inflow rate became a bigger contributor after the mid 1980s although its significance subsided again in the late 1990s and 2000s in france the dynamics of unemployment are driven by the outflow rate virtually entirely which is consistent with a regime with strict employment protection legislation in spain however both rates contribute significantly to the dynamics perhaps as a consequence of the prominence of fixed term contracts since the late 1980s

has work sharing worked in germany industry by industry basis in an attempt to raise employment whether this work sharing works is theoretically ambiguous i exploit the cross industry variation in standard hours reductions to examine their impact on actual hours worked wages and employment analysis of industry level data suggests that work sharing may have reduced employment in the period 1984 1994 using individual data from the german socio economic panel i substantiate the union claim of full wage compensation the hourly wage rose enough to offset the decline in actual hours worked

the hidden economy as an unobserved variable abstract the technique of unobserved variables is used to estimate the relative size and development time of the hidden economy of oecd countries the burdens of taxation and regulations and the tax morality turn out to be statistically significant determinants at the end of the scandinavian and benc lux countries are expected to have a relatively large and japan and switzerland a relatively small hidden economy canada and the united states are rank in the middle the size of all hidden sectors is estimated to have increased in the period 1960 1973 relative to officially measured gnp

marginal abatement costs of co2 emissions in the thermal power sector a regional empirical analysis from china abstract quantifying marginal abatement costs of co2 emissions are beneficial to estimate mitigation potentials and costs of china s regional thermal power sector based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2004 to 2013 this study estimates the technical efficiency reduction potential and marginal abatement costs of co2 emissions from the thermal power sector in china using a parametric quadratic directional output distance function a regression analysis is undertaken to identify the factors that drive marginal abatement costs the main results are 1 the mean value of directional output distance function in china s thermal power sector is 0 0449 indicating that inefficient production of chinese thermal power sector accounts for 4 49 co2 emissions could be mitigated by accumulated 1 22 billion ton in the past ten year which is approximate 4 49 of total co2 emissions 2 the national weighted average marginal abatement costs of co2 emissions are 316 51 yuan ton which is far higher than carbon price in the current ets emission trading system pilots in china implying that carbon price does not inflect supply and demand of carbon allowance 3 the regression results show that the marginal abatement costs positively connect with regional power scale namely a 1 increase in power scale will result in a 13 8 increase technology level coal supply and power structure are negatively correlated with marginal abatement costs namely a 1 increase in technology level coal supply and power structure will result respectively in a 30 41 4 38 and 77 7 decrease

on the economic rationale of estimating the hidden economy the estimation of the hidden economy may be considered as a human passion for knowing the unknown although a large literature on the hidden economy exists the subject is still controversial at a very basic level there are disagreements about 1 the definition of the hidden activities 2 the terms used to describe these activities 3 the estimation or measurement procedures and finally 4 on the use of these estimates in economic analysis in this paper we will only consider the issues related to estimation economic and econometric analysis of the hidden economy thus we implicitly accept the term hidden economy and explicitly state the definition before entering into the main discussions for a comprehensive study of past literature readers are referred to feige 1989 gaertner and wenig 1985 and tanzi 1982 and the large number of references in these books the use of the hidden economy estimates for economic and econometric analysis can be classified into three potentially distinct but interrelated categories a the derivation of economic theory and or its implication for the existing theories b the formulation of economic policies and c econometric modelling if we consider that the tax evaded income is the only constituent of the hidden economy then the issues are almost obvious for all three categories however as we will see later such a simple interpretation of the hidden economy estimates is generally not possible for example in this paper we define the hidden economy as the unrecorded national income the unrecorded national income is calculated as the difference between the potential national income for the given currency in circulation and the recorded national income this definition of the hidden economy suggests that in principle it is larger than the tax evaded income the empirical illustrations are taken from the studies conducted in the united kingdom and india where this is a workable definition however for many other countries such an approach is totally inadequate as a measure of unrecorded national income since the method of estimating the hidden economy is constrained by the structure of the economy in this paper we shall present a brief description of a general method of estimating the hidden economy and appraise the applicability and limitation of the method due to space constraint we shall discuss very briefly the importance of the hidden economy on economic theory and on the empirical

money laundering as a crime in the financial sector a new approach to quantitative assessment with an application to italy this study provides an answer to the question of how much cash deposited via a financial institution can be traced back to criminal activities by developing a new approach to measure money laundering and proposing an application to italy we define a model of cash in flows on current accounts considering besides dirty money to be laundered also the legal motivations to deposit cash and the role of the shadow economy we find that the average amount of cash laundered in italy is around 6 of gdp these findings are coherent with estimates of the nonobserved economy obtained in previous studies

quantifying the black economy measurement without theory yet again i shall argue that measurement without theory is a fair description of the published empirical work aimed at guestimating the size of the hidden or black economy i shall also argue that a mere guestimate of the overall size of the black economy is of limited value for the policy maker it is also important to know who is doing what where how and why then we can see what should and or can be done about legislating for or against the black economy in assessing the various attempts to measure the size of the black economy one should also be aware of a political dimension to some of this work perhaps a large and growing black economy is an indication that the economy is overtaxed and over regulated and a neo liberal adjustment is needed to free it up if a large part of the black economy is social security fraud then maybe unemployment is not really as bad as it looks clearly such political conclusions depended on having good theoretical as well as sound quantitative foundations and both these components were generally missing

credit market imperfections labor markets and leverage dynamics in emerging economies abstract emerging economies emes have different credit and labor market structures relative to advanced economies we document that economies with larger self employment shares tend to exhibit less countercyclical leverage dynamics we build a model where formal credit markets input credit relationships and the structure of labor markets interact that 1 captures a comprehensive set of eme business cycle regularities and 2 rationalizes our new fact the interaction between firms net worth interfirm input credit and self employment underlying our framework is critical for explaining our fact and is supported by the data

gender entrepreneurship and the formal informal dilemma evidence from indonesia summary this study analyzes the preferences of entrepreneurs about formality and focuses on the role of gender relying on original data collected in indonesia we unpack the differences between various types of female entrepreneurs currently in the informal sector according to their preferences about formalization contrary to the existing literature we find that female entrepreneurs possess highly nuanced preferences about formalization that are conditional on many factors the preference for formalization is strongest among female entrepreneurs who are older married rural based and have recently started their firms our work contributes to research that seeks to better understand entrepreneurial preferences and the role that gender plays

the underground economies tax evasion and information distortion list of contributors preface introduction edgar l feige part i the meaning measurement and policy implications of the underground economies 1 the meaning and measurement of the underground economy edgar l feige 2 information distortions in social systems the underground economy and other observer subject policymaker feedbacks robert r alford and edgar l feige 3 policy illusion macroeconomic instability and the unrecorded economy robert t mcgee and edgar l feige 4 how large or small should the underground economy be bruno frey part ii the underground economy in western developed nations measurement in different laboratories 5 monetary perspective on underground economic activity in the united states richard d porter and amanda s bayer 6 the unrecorded economy and the national income accounts in the netherlands a sensitivity analysis g a a m broesterhuizen 7 assessing the underground economy in the united kingdom michael o higgins 8 the underground economy in the federal republic of germany a preliminary assessment enno langfeldt 9 the underground economy in sweden ingemar hansson 10 the irregular economy of italy a survey of contributions bruno contini 11 the hidden economy in norway with special emphasis on the hidden labor market arne jon isachsen and steiner strom 12 canada s underground economy rolf mirus and roger s smith 13 the underground economy in france philippe barthelemy part iii the underground economy under central planning 14 the soviet second economy in a political and legal perspective f j m feldbrugge 15 second economy and socialism the hungarian experience istvan r gabor bibliography

blessing or curse foreign and underground demand for euro notes public finance solutions to the european unemployment problem developing countries may hold as much as 25 30 of the 1 3 trillion oecd currency supply although dollar holdings appear to exceed dm holdings by a factor of four the advent of the euro may change this balance indeed by issuing large denomination notes of 100 200 and 500 the european central bank appears to be well poised to challenge the dominance of the ubiquitous us 100 note however large denomination notes are also extremely popular in the oecd underground economy which appears to hold at least 50 of the currency supply as a result the seigniorage revenues obtained by issuing large denomination notes may be an accounting illusion substantially or fully offset by losses due to increased tax evasion hence the new european central bank may wish to consider policies that discourage underground use of currency even at the expense of losing out on foreign demand kenneth rogoff

turnover of organized crime and money laundering some preliminary empirical findings after a short literature review the paper quantifies the turnover of organized crime with the help of a mimic estimation procedure for the years 1995 to 2006 for 20 highly developed oecd countries the volume of turnover from organized crime was us 270 billion in the year 1995 for these 20 oecd countries rising to 614 billion in 2006 the worldwide turnover in organized crime had a value of 595 billion in 2001 and rose to 790 billion in 2006 these figures are very preliminary but clearly indicate the importance of the turnover of organized crime or the extent of money laundering

why do firms hide bribes and unofficial activity after communism abstract our survey of private manufacturing firms finds the size of hidden unofficial activity to be much larger in russia and ukraine than in poland slovakia and romania a comparison of cross country averages shows that managers in russia and ukraine face higher effective tax rates worse bureaucratic corruption greater incidence of mafia protection and have less faith in the court system our firm level regressions for the three eastern european countries find that bureaucratic corruption is significantly associated with hiding output

the effects of irregular markets on macroeconomic policy some estimates for belgium abstract the paper aims at evaluating the efficiency of traditional keynesian demand or neo classical income policies in the presence of an irregular sector the analysis is applied to the belgian economy for which it is shown that the objectives of increasing output and employment and reducing the importance of the irregular economy will often lead to conflicting policy prescriptions in addition keynesian multipliers may be lowered by as much as 40 though the irregular market only represents some 10 to 15 of total activity

costly monitoring financial intermediation and equilibrium credit rationing abstract this paper establishes a link between equilibrium credit rationing and financial intermediation in a model with asymmetrically informed lenders and borrowers costly monitoring and investment project indivisibilities intermediation is shown to dominate borrowing and lending between individuals and these financial intermediaries exhibit several of the important features of intermediaries as we know them equilibrium interest rates and the aggregate quantity of loans respond quite differently to changes in taste and technology parameters depending on whether or not there is rationing in equilibrium

carbon emission performance evaluation and allocation in chinese cities abstract this paper presents a dea approach with multiple abatement factors to evaluate co2 emission performance and allocate co2 emission quotas in chinese cities we first consider the difference of marginal abatement costs among cities and construct the non radial directional distance function with multiple abatement factors the total factor co2 emission performance index and its dynamic change index are then proposed to measure co2 emission performance considering equity and efficiency we develop a composite index by the hybrid method to allocate emissions quota which considers co2 emissions as well as co2 emission performance then we conduct an empirical study using inputs and outputs dataset of 71 chinese cities in 2005 2012 chinese cities have poor energy efficiency and still have high co2 emissions the eastern region outperforms the central region and the western region performs worst whereas the dynamic co2 emission performance of the central region has the largest increase the change of co2 emission performance is driven mainly by technological advances as for the co2 emission allocation the composite index method encourages cities to reduce emissions and enhance emission performance through carbon trading market it also motivates cities with high historical emissions to reduce their emissions by improving technology when they have poor co2 emission performance

informal self employment and macroeconomic fluctuations article i nfo article history informal self employment is a major source of employment in developing countries its cyclical behavior is important to our understanding of the functioning of ldc labor markets but turns out to be surprisingly complex we develop a flexible model with two sectors a formal salaried tradable sector that may be affected by wage rigidities and an informal non tradable self employment sector faced with liquidity constraints to entry this labor market is then embedded in a standard small economy macro model we show that different types of shocks interact with different institutional contexts to produce distinct patterns of comovement between key variables of the model relative salaried self employed incomes relative salaried self employed sector sizes and the real exchange rate model predictions are then tested empirically for argentina brazil colombia and mexico we confirm episodes where the expansion of informal self employment is consistent with the traditional segmentation views of informality however we also identify episodes where informal self employment behaves pro cyclically here informality is driven by relative demand or productivity shocks to the non tradable sector

unemployment and international shadow economy gender differences abstractadding to the body of research on cross country determinants of the informal economy this article studies how unemployment differences across gender drive the propensities to work in the informal sector results accounting for possible simultaneity between unemployment and the shadow economy show that unemployed males rather than unemployed females were more likely to operate underground these findings about greater male propensities are generally robust to alternative considerations

the canadian underground and measured economies granger causality results using new time series data for the size of the canadian underground economy the relationship between unreported and measured gdp in that country is examined granger causality tests are conducted with a proper allowance for the non stationarity of the data it is found that there is clear evidence of such causality from measured gdp to hidden output but only very mild evidence of granger causality in the reverse direction this result supports similar evidence for new zealand reported by the first author and has several interesting policy implications

shadow economies at times of banking crises empirics and theory this paper investigates the response of the shadow economy to banking crises our empirical analysis based on a large sample of countries suggests that the informal sector is a powerful buffer which expands at times of banking crises and absorbs a large proportion of the fall in official output to rationalise our evidence we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which accounts for financial and labour market frictions and for nominal rigidities in line with the empirical literature on the shadow economy we assume that in the informal sector access to external finance is limited and the production technology is relatively more labour intensive following a banking shock in the official sector the model predicts a large negative transmission to the unofficial economy that substantially dampens the overall effect of the shock

approaches for estimating noncompliance examples from federal taxation in the united states crime and underground economic activity are a fact of life around the world most societies attempt to control these activities through the expenditure of resources on monitoring prosecution punishment and educational programmes gathering statistics about who is engaging in illegal or underground activity the frequencies with which various crimes or underground transactions are occurring and the severity or magnitude of these acts is crucial for making good decisions regarding our allocation of resources in this area unfortunately in general it is very difficult to obtain accurate information about these issues this is partly because the individuals engaged in such activities wish not to be identified and often take actions to avoid detection and partly because by their very nature the activities tend not to generate economic accounting legal demographic or other cultural records the fact that it is difficult to obtain accurate information about the activities however does not in any way imply that we should not make a concerted effort to try to obtain the best information we can i believe the cost associated with attempting to determine the extent and nature of these activities is in most circumstances well below the expected benefit which includes the likelihood of improved decisionmaking by relevant government personnel and the general public as a result i also believe the debate about developing estimates of illegal or underground economic activity should primarily focus on practical issues related to how best to go about developing estimates that are as reliable as possible in this short article i shall discuss the measurement of noncompliance with laws and regulations my particular area of expertise and shall not discuss the measurement of other kinds of hidden economic behaviours such as informal contracting unmeasured home production and grey market activities in particular i shall discuss three approaches for estimating the aggregate amount of noncompliance with respect to a specific law or regulation i intensive data collection for a focused subsample of the population ii detection controlled estimation and iii the comparision of estimates generated by distinct datasets and models for each i shall describe in general terms what the approach is and how it is implemented review limitations of the approach and present an example of the application of the approach to the measurement of tax noncompliance in the united states my discussion shall necessarily be short and i refer the interested reader to a variety of original research publications for more details especially about the specific examples

marginal co2 abatement costs findings from alternative shadow price estimates for shanghai industrial sectors abstract shanghai one of the most developed cities in china is implementing a pilot regional carbon emission trading scheme estimating the marginal abatement costs of co2 emissions for the industrial sectors covered in shanghai s emission trading scheme provides the government and participating firms useful information for devising compliance policies this paper employs multiple distance function approaches to estimating the shadow prices of co2 emissions for shanghai industrial sectors our empirical results show that the overall weighted average of shadow price estimates by different approaches ranges between 394 5 and 1906 1 yuan ton which indicates that model choice truly has a significant effect on the shadow price estimation we have also identified a negative relationship between the shadow price of co2 emissions and carbon intensity and the heavy industries with higher carbon intensities tend to have lower shadow prices it has been suggested that shanghai municipal government take various measures to improve its carbon market e g using the marginal abatement costs of participating sectors firms as a criterion in the initial allocation of carbon emission allowances

corruption top down or bottom up this article studies the impact of corruption on an economy with a hierarchical government in particular we study whether centralizing corruption within the higher level of government increases or decreases the total amount of corruption we show that when the after tax relative profitability of the formal sector as compared to that of the informal sector is high enough adding a layer of government increases the total amount of corruption by contrast for high enough public wages and or an efficient monitoring technology of the bureaucratic system centralization of corruption at the top of the government hierarchy redistributes bribe income from the lower level to the upper level in the process total corruption is reduced and the formal sector of the economy expands

job matching and propagation in the u s labor market the vacancy unemployment ratio and employment react sluggishly to productivity shocks we show that the job matching model in its standard form cannot reproduce these patterns due to excessively rapid vacancy responses extending the model to incorporate sunk costs for vacancy creation yields highly realistic dynamics creation costs induce entrant firms to smooth the adjustment of new openings following a shock leading the stock of vacancies to react sluggishly

toward an understanding of economic growth in africa a reinterpretation of the lewis model summary we develop a model economy that has many of the features of lewis 1954 but that also includes an in between sector as described by lewis 1979 our model underscores the importance of the following determinants of structural change i productivity growth in the agricultural sector ii productivity growth in the nonagricultural sector and iii the terms of trade public investment enhances productivity growth in all sectors but when it is financed by foreign inflows it also causes a real exchange rate appreciation leading to a contraction in the open modern sector these results provide a partial explanation for recent patterns of growth in rwanda and elsewhere in africa where the nontradables or what we call the in between sector has expanded more rapidly than the tradable sector our results also highlight the dilemma faced by poor countries in dire need of public investment with a very limited tax base

financial intermediation business failures and real business cycles in this paper a general equilibrium business cycle model is construct ed that when subjected to real disturbances mimics observed qualita tive comovements among real output money business failures risk pr emia intermediary loans and prices in contrast monetary disturban ces generate cycles that have several inconsistencies with empirical evidence thus providing support for real business cycle theory at th e expense of monetary theories of the business cycle financial inter mediation arises endogenously in the model and intermediation matters for business cycle behavior a credit supply mechanism acts in tande m with an intertemporal substitution effect in propagating stochastic disturbances copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

how big is the shadow economy a re analysis of the unobserved variable approach of b s frey and h weck hannemann abstract in a widely quoted study b s frey and h weck hannemann estimated the size and the development of the shadow economy in 17 countries by means of the latent variable approach a re analysis of the data shows that the results of frey and weck hannemann s model are extremely unstable and cannot be regarded as reliable statements about the shadow economy of these 17 countries even minor variations in the number of countries included in the analyses in the period under investigation or in the index which is defined lead to a pronounced instability a critical look at the observational variables used in the model lead to the conclusion that the authors cannot even be sure that what they have investigated is indeed the shadow economy the latent variable could equally well be interpreted in other ways it could be for instance that they have measured the development of the welfare state

remittances entrepreneurship and employment dynamics over the business cycle abstract we incorporate remittances and micro entrepreneurship self employment into a small open economy business cycle model with capital and labor market frictions countercyclical remittances moderate the decline of households consumption during recessions these remittances also are used to finance the start up costs of microenterprises that bolster households income during economic downturns we show that the positive income effect from countercyclical remittances also leads to a decrease in salaried labor supply which generates offsetting upward pressure on wages during recessions and adversely affects the recovery of the economy consistent with the microeconomic evidence the behavior of remittances decisively affects labor force participation and the composition of employment between non salaried and salaried employment over the business cycle the model delivers labor market and aggregate cyclical dynamics that are consistent with the mexican data including a highly volatile and countercyclical unemployment rate

estimating the size of the danish shadow economy using the currency demand approach an attempt the currency demand approach provides some insight into the size and development of the shadow economy in denmark currency demand is statistically affected by tax rates the difference in currency demand is calculated by comparing the actual tax burden over time to the lowest tax burden in the period 1952 82 the shadow economy grew steadily to 10 per cent of gnp in 1977 and then fluctuated between 7 10 per cent of gnp for the period 1978 82 the calculated size fits nicely with the results obtained using the same

shadow economies size causes and consequences using various methods the size of the shadow economy in 76 developing transition and oecd countries is estimated average size varies from 12 percent of gdp for oecd countries to 23 percent for transition countries and 39 percent for developing countries increasing taxation and social security contributions combined with rising state regulations are driving forces for the increase of the shadow economy especially in oecd countries according to some findings corruption has a positive impact on the size of the shadow economy and a growing shadow economy has a negative effect on official gdp growth

recessions and the vulnerable abstract this study evaluates the impact of recessions on households vulnerable to poverty the results indicate that recessions impact vulnerable households asymmetrically in comparison to the impact of growth on poor households we also demonstrate that this outcome is significantly influenced by a country s extent of development we argue that a direct consequence of the foregoing is that the efficacy of growth in poverty reduction tends to be under stated by conventional measures of poor households responses to economic growth and that safety nets need to be constructed to incorporate vulnerability to recessions

review of de soto s the mystery of capital in the mystery of capital hernando de soto promotes his explanation of why formal capital markets function poorly in developing countries de soto argues that much of the population of developing countries lacks access to credit not because they lack assets but because ownership of their property is secured informally which prevents the use of property as collateral the inability to convert assets into capital keeps the developing world from benefiting from capitalism

understanding liquidity shortages during severe economic downturns abstract one feature of economic recessions is the appearance of aggregate liquidity shortages that can exacerbate the economic downturn we develop a model in which the demand for liquidity arises suddenly in response to continued funding needs of partially completed investment projects whose outcomes are subject to idiosyncratic shocks and moral hazard when the economy experiences an adverse aggregate productivity shock incentive constraints that underlie equity contracts may bind provided the shock is severe enough in this case credit rationing appears and the heightened demand for liquidity coincides with a greater reluctance to take on equity positions or deepen investments in on going investment projects the consequence is a reduction in new investment and termination of on going projects due to a lack of liquidity thereby worsening the economic slowdown

shopping for anonymous shell companies an audit study of anonymity and crime in the international financial system the last few years have seen an international campaign to ensure that the world s financial and banking systems are transparent meaning that every actor and transaction within the system can be traced to a discrete identifiable individual i present an audit study of compliance with the prohibitions on anonymous shell companies in particular i describe my attempts to found anonymous corporate vehicles without proof of identity and then to establish corporate bank accounts for these vehicles transactions processed through the corporate account of such a shell company become effectively untraceable and thus very useful for those looking to hide criminal profits pay or receive bribes finance terrorists or escape tax obligations i solicited offers of anonymous corporate vehicles from 54 different corporate service providers in 22 different countries and collated the responses to determine whether the existing legal and regulatory prohibitions on anonymous corporate vehicles actually work in practice to foreshadow the results it seems that small island offshore centers may have standards for corporate transparency and disclosure that are higher than major oecd economies like the united states and the united kingdom

energy efficiency and marginal carbon dioxide emission abatement cost in urban china abstract energy efficiency improvement and carbon emission reduction are two important ways to mitigate energy consumptions and global warming this paper aims to examine energy efficiency and carbon dioxide co2 emissions abatement costs of city urban areas in china to this end an improved slacks based measure approach is introduced which considers the linkage between desirable and undesirable outputs then measures of energy efficiency co2 emission abatement cost and comprehensive state index of co2 emissions abatement cost and co2 emissions reduction potential are defined the proposed model is then applied to the dataset of 285 cities in china during 2008 2012 the results show that most city urban areas in china have relatively low energy efficiencies surprisingly there are gradually narrowing gaps regarding mean energy efficiencies between areas during 2008 2012 nevertheless there are great disparities in energy efficiencies between cities within a typical area and even a provincial region it is found that co2 emissions abatement cost in urban china exhibits an increasing trend during the study period also significantly geographic disparities in abatement costs between areas regions and cites are found specifically energy efficiency has significantly positive correlation with the comprehensive state index in china some important findings and useful policy implications are achieved

corruption and development a review of issues in this paper we start with a discussion of some of the different denotations of the problem of corruption we then consider the ways in which the damaging consequences of corruption operate in a developing economy while not ignoring its possible redeeming features in some cases we pursue the question of why corruption is perceptibly so different in different societies and also persistent finally we examine the feasible policy issues that arise in this context

modelling the informal sector formally abstract the theoretical characterization of formal informal sector dualism by labor market dualism is integrated with its empirical characterization by size dualism by supposing that the minimum formal sector wage is only enforced for firms greater than a certain size a firm s size varies directly with the talent of its enterpreneur manager and the choice between formal and informal sector entrepreneurship is determined endogenously it is then shown that the size gap between the smallest formal sector firm and largest informal sector firm varies directly with the formal informal sector wage differential which in turn is shown as expected to increase the further is the minimum wage above the market clearing wage the comparative statics of changes in the size of the firm above which the minimum wage is enforced are also examined

estimating the second economy in tanzania abstract the official national accounts of tanzania suffer from two serious weaknesses incomplete coverage as well as inaccurate estimates of the activities covered this arises because many of the activities especially those in the informal sector are either misreported or underrecorded often however the required information is deliberately concealed from public authorities either because the agents are involved in illegal black market activities or where such parallel market activities are legal there is a deliberate intention to evade government controls the misstatement and omission of these second economy activities from official statistics imply that macroeconomic measures are not robust enough for meaningful analysis development planning policy and program formulation this paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of and changes in the second economy in tanzania to establish the extent to which official statistics misstate actual production of goods and services

uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy ered valuable by at least a part of society narcotics production and distribution prostitution gambling these activities can be large in some countries and should be counted in the national accounts of all countries although they rarely are their omission affects the comparability of data across countries the incomes generated by illegal activities are rarely taxed many other activities such as those associated with the subsistence or informal sectors are estimated rather than measured and are generally not taxed because of the low value they generate to those who engage in them in conclusion there are many reasons beside the ones discussed in this paper why the measurements of national output may not be complete about two decades ago a few economists became convinced that many normal economic activities that should be measured and taxed were taking place underground or in the shadow thus presumably escaping the attention of the statistical offices of the tax authorities and more generally of the government regulators some of these economists also claimed that like alice in wonderland these hidden activities were growing in a ridiculous fashion see gutmann 1977 and feige 1979 by the late 1970s the role of government had grown enormously so that the level of taxation and the tax rates had risen sharply and regulations had proliferated in many countries see tanzi and schuknecht 1997 these developments had created strong incentives for individuals and enterprises to go underground to avoid taxes and regulatory restrictions thus a good case could be made that what came to be called the underground economy was a phenomenon to worry about newspaper articles were ready to accept the

the power to tax analytical foundations of a fiscal constitution preface 1 taxation in constitutional perspective 2 natural government a model of leviathan 3 constraints on base and rate structure 4 the taxation of commodities 5 taxation through time income taxes capital taxes and public debt 6 money creation and taxation 7 the disposition of public revenues 8 the domain of politics 9 open economy federalism and taxing authority 10 toward authentic tax reform prospects and prescriptions epilogue notes selected bibliography index

a deterministic parametric metafrontier luenberger indicator for measuring environmentally sensitive productivity growth a korean fossil fuel power case abstract this paper contributes to the current literature by proposing an alternative parametric metafrontier productivity approach called the deterministic parametric metafrontier luenberger productivity indicator dpmlpi for measuring environmentally sensitive productivity growth incorporating technological heterogeneities the luenberger productivity indicator is constructed based on a quadratic output directional distance function with undesirable outputs and then combined with the deterministic metafrontier to develop dpmlpi the dpmlpi can be decomposed into efficiency change technological change and productivity growth gap the productivity growth gap can be further divided into efficiency change gap and technological change gap the parametric linear programming technique is used to estimate parameters and construct the metafrontier an empirical study for the korean fossil fuel power industry at the plant level is conducted for the 2003 2011 period the results show a 0 15 increase in environmentally sensitive productivity growth which is mainly driven by environmental technological change the oil fired power plants show higher levels than the coal fired ones of environmentally sensitive productivity growth and technological change performance some related policy implications are also proposed for the korean fossil fuel power sector

can africa compete with china in manufacturing the role of relative unit labor costs in this paper examine sub saharan africa s ssa bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with china we review patterns of bilateral trade between ssa and china showing an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of trade in that china overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to ssa and almost exclusively imports primary products in return our principal means of assessing the competitiveness of ssa s manufacturing sector vis a vis china are measures of relative unit labor costs rulc we find that african rulc levels have generally been very high relative to china but declined over the 2000s as china s wages have risen faster than chinese productivity while the reverse is true for the ssa countries in our sample nevertheless rulc vis a vis china remained elevated for many ssa countries as of 2010 generally high rulc along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most ssa countries are unlikely to be competitive in labor intensive manufacturing any time soon

informality and the labor market effects of financial crises abstract we provide evidence based on a large sample of countries on the effects of financial crises on key labor market indicators including official and unofficial employment unemployment and the participation rate crises are followed by a drop in the official market participation rate and by an increase in informal employment these responses are strongly persistent empirical results are then interpreted with a dsge model which accounts for informality and for financial and labor market frictions in this framework the informal sector acts as a buffer which absorbs workers in bad times and vice versa our simulations suggest the informal sector also is a crisis amplifier for the official economy for a given financial shock the ensuing contraction in the official economy is deeper and more persistent the larger the initial size of the unofficial sector this implies that in less developed economies financial crises cause a relatively stronger reallocation of inputs towards less efficient sectors expose a larger fraction of the population to the adverse effects of informality cause a sharper deterioration of public finances limiting governments ability to supply public goods and to engage in countercyclical fiscal policies

informal employment safety net or growth engine summary is informal employment a safety net or a growth engine to address this question this paper studies the trends and cycles of informal employment it first presents a theoretical model of long and short run behavior of informal labor then it analyzes these relationships empirically using the share of self employment in the labor force as the proxy for informal employment in the long run informality is larger when labor productivity is lower government services weaker and business flexibility less prevalent in the short run informal employment behaves counter cyclically indicating that it acts primarily as a safety net the degree of counter cyclicality however varies inversely with the size of informal labor itself

production uncertainty and the market equilibrium of the competitive firm abstract assumptions outputs are planned ex ante by risk neutral firms actual outputs are stochastic with variance function of planned output production costs are function of planned outputs while the market linear demand function is stable if individual outputs as positively correlated expected profit is decreased by the negative covariance between output and price the firms and market equilibria are analyzed in the short run and the long run with varying number of firms they are compared with oi s and tisdell s uncertain demand models

the macroeconomics of labor and credit market imperfections labour market frictions are not the only possible source of high unemployment credit market imperfections driven by microeconomic frictions and influenced by macroeconomic factors could also be to blame to develop this idea in a simple and tractable macroeconomic model we treat credit and labour market imperfections in a symmetrical way accordingly we introduce specificity in credit relationships and assume that credit to potential entrepreneurs is rationed due to endogenous search frictions in the spirit of diamond 1990 these imperfections mirror job search frictions in the labour market we study the determination of equilibrium unemployment in the presence of credit market frictions both with exogenous and endogenous wages we explore a number of possible extensions endogenous destruction monetary policy and the short run effects of financial liberalization

employment and firm heterogeneity capital allocation and countercyclical labor market policies abstract developing and emerging economies have large employment shares in micro and small firms which are characterized by limited access to formal financing and high reliance on input credit these economies implemented a host of countercyclical labor market policies amid the global financial crisis gfc but labor market data limitations prevent detailed empirical assessments of the effectiveness of these policies we develop a business cycle model with frictional labor markets consistent with the employment and firm structure of these economies and assess the aggregate impact of key countercyclical labor market policies implemented amid the gfc improving job intermediation for large firms is particularly effective in aiding recoveries policies targeting smaller firms yield limited aggregate benefits differences in labor productivity and sectoral contribution to employment and output across firm categories are key in explaining the response to policy

global financial risk aggregate fluctuations and unemployment dynamics abstract we use a panel structural vector autoregression methodology to study the impact of global financial risk shocks in emerging market economies emes versus small open advanced economies soaes the short term responses of gdp investment and un employment are similar in emes compared to soaes but their medium term responses differ considerably in emes the shock propagates less across gdp and investment and the response of unemployment is prominently more subdued further analysis suggests that while in emes these dynamics can be traced back to the response of country interest rates to global financial risk shocks and to the average degree of firm informality in soaes these factors are not at play instead for soaes the dynamics of bank credit can matter to some degree but more broadly a global financial risk shock passes through more directly into the economy

government effectiveness and regional variation in informal employment abstract this article analyses the role of government effectiveness in the determination of informal employment a theoretical model is developed in which local governance and worker skill level are assumed to influence the decision of the worker whether to seek employment in the formal or informal sectors the model is assessed empirically using data from brazil where almost half of the urban labour force is employed informally the empirical analysis supports the predictions of the model and suggests that the probability of a worker being employed informally is lower in regions with better governance and higher average education

the employment effects of credit market disruptions firm level evidence from the 2008 9 financial crisis this article investigates the effect of bank lending frictions on employment outcomes i construct a new data set that combines information on banking relationships and employment at 2 000 nonfinancial firms during the 2008 9 crisis the article first verifies empirically the importance of banking relationships which imply a cost to borrowers who switch lenders i then use the dispersion in lender health following the lehman crisis as a source of exogenous variation in the availability of credit to borrowers i find that credit matters firms that had precrisis relationships with less healthy lenders had a lower likelihood of obtaining a loan following the lehman bankruptcy paid a higher interest rate if they did borrow and reduced employment by more compared to precrisis clients of healthier lenders consistent with frictions deriving from asymmetric information the effects vary by firm type lender health has an economically and statistically significant effect on employment at small and medium firms but the data cannot reject the hypothesis of no effect at the largest or most transparent firms abstracting from general equilibrium effects i find that the withdrawal of credit accounts for between one third and one half of the employment decline at small and medium firms in the sample in the year

the un importance of unemployment fluctuations for the welfare cost of business cycles abstract this paper studies the cost of business cycles within a real business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market we endogenously link both the cyclical fluctuations and the mean level of unemployment to the aggregate business cycle risk the key result of the paper is that business cycles are costly fluctuations over the cycle induce a higher average unemployment rate since employment is nonlinear in the job finding rate and the past unemployment rate we show this analytically for a special case of the model we then calibrate the model to u s data for the calibrated model too business cycles cause higher average unemployment the welfare cost of business cycles can easily be an order of magnitude larger than lucas s 1987 estimate the cost of business cycles is the higher the lower the value of nonemployment is or equivalently the lower is the disutility of work the ensuing cost of business cycles rises further when workers skills depreciate during unemployment

unemployment and business cycles we develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates including labor market variables in sharp contrast to leading new keynesian models we do not impose wage inertia instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers negotiate wages our model outperforms a variant of the standard new keynesian calvo sticky wage model according to our estimated model there is a critical interaction between the degree of price stickiness monetary policy and the duration of an increase in unemployment benefits

the unemployment volatility puzzle is wage stickiness the answer i discuss the failure of the canonical search and matching model to match the cyclical volatility in the job finding rate i show that job creation in the model is influenced by wages in new matches i summarize microeconometric evidence and find that wages in new matches are volatile and consistent with the model s key predictions therefore explanations of the unemployment volatility puzzle have to preserve the cyclical volatility of wages i discuss a modification of the model based on fixed matching costs that can increase cyclical unemployment volatility and is consistent with wage flexibility in new matches

the quality of employment qoe in nine latin american countries a multidimensional perspective abstract this paper proposes a methodology for measuring the quality of employment from a multidimensional and public policy perspective in latin american developing countries argentina bolivia brazil chile colombia ecuador mexico paraguay peru and uruguay using household and labour force survey data from 2015 the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the qoe can be measured using a multidimensional methodology that can inform policy makers about the state of their labour markets in a way that complements traditional variables such as participation or unemployment rates which are not always good indicators of labour market performance in developing countries with large informal sectors building on the framework of the capability approach as well as on previous work on multidimensional poverty we use the alkire foster af method to construct a synthetic indicator of the quality of employment qoe at an individual level we select three dimensions that must be considered as both instrumentally and intrinsically important to workers and the functions and capabilities generated by their employment situation income job security and employment conditions job security is then divided into two sub dimensions occupational status and job tenure as is employment conditions social security affiliation and excessive working hours a threshold is then established within each dimension and sub dimension to determine whether a person is deprived or not within each dimension before establishing an overall cut off line and calculating composite levels of deprivation the results generated by this indicator are first highly relevant to policy makers as they allow for the precise identification of groups of vulnerable workers as well as of dimensions and indicators which contribute to deprivation in the labour market second they extend the debate about employment in developing countries to variables not commonly considered by the literature as being critical to the well being of workers and their dependents such as occupational status and job tenure third this paper highlights important difference between latin american countries both in terms of the overall qoe index result as well as its component dimensions while chile presents the best results in the region paraguay presents the worst followed by mexico bolivia and peru however chile peru columbia and brazil for example have the biggest problem with job rotation finally the paper highlights that low rates of unemployment are not necessarily related to low rates of deprivation in terms of the qoe in fact in some countries analysed e g mexico the opposite is true

taxes inequality and the size of the informal sector abstract in this note we develop a simple heterogeneous agent model with incomplete markets to explain the prevalence of a large low productivity informal sector in developing countries in our model taxes levied on formal sector agents are used to finance the provision of a productive public infrastructure which creates a productivity premium from formalization our model offers endogenous differentiation of rich and poor countries complete formalization is an equilibrium only in countries with the appropriate initial conditions we discuss the existence of this equilibrium and highlight the ambiguous effect of taxes

business cycles and labor market search the quantitative implications of labor market search for economic fluctuations are evaluated in the context of a real business cycle model incorporating labor market search into the model is found to improve its empirical performance along several dimensions in particular hours now fluctuate substantially more than wages and the contemporaneous correlation between hours and productivity falls in addition the model replicates the observation that output growth displays positive autocorrelation at short horizons overall the empirical results suggest that the labor market search environment embodies a quantitatively important propagation mechanism copyright 1996 by american economic association

informality and rent seeking bureaucracies in a model of long run growth abstract this paper explores the links among growth the informal economy and rent seeking bureaucracies the presence of congestion associated with the enforcement of property rights implies that informality can be useful whether bureaucratic rent seeking is detrimental to growth then depends on how good a substitute informality is to production in the formal sector in order to create profits which can be appropriated rent seeking bureaucrats limit entry into the formal economy as a result firms operate in the informal sector even when the cost of informality is high in which case lower growth emerges however when the cost of informality is low a large number of firms choose to operate informally irrespective of entry conditions in the latter case growth is unaffected by a rent seeking bureaucracy as entry restrictions in the formal economy do not bind

corruption extortion and evasion corruption evasion and the abuse of power and the possibility thereof are pervasive features of economic activity a prominent instance is tax collection this paper examines the implications of corruptibility and the potential abuse of authority for the effects and optimal design of potentially non linear tax collection schemes amongst the findings are that the distributional effects of evasion and corruption are unambiguously regressive under the kinds of schemes usual in practice and collecting progressive taxes without inducing evasion or corruption may require that inspectors be paid commission on high income reports but not on low with the cost of this potentially creating what seems to be a previously unnoticed trade off between equity and efficiency

environmental efficiency and abatement cost of china s industrial sectors based on a three stage data envelopment analysis abstract china has gained the reputation of global factory due to its phenomenal industrial growth over the past decades at the same time its industrial energy consumption has resulted in serious environmental problems accordingly there is an urgent and critical need to reduce industrial carbon emissions at a minimum cost without hampering the country s economic development the dual targets for carbon emission intensity and amount from the 12th five year 2011 2015 plan make it necessary to investigate the environmental efficiency and reduction costs of different sectors this study employs a three stage data envelopment analysis model based on a directional distance function approach with radial and non radial slacks of desirable and undesirable outputs considered to measure the environmental efficiency and marginal co2 emission abatement costs of china s 37 two digit industries during 2005 2014 based on the environmental efficiency and abatement cost of the industrial sectors we reached the following conclusions first the adjusted estimates differ significantly from the results that do not consider the influence of environmental factors and it is essential to consider the heterogeneity of industries in proposing emission reduction strategies in addition the stimuli for the smelting and pressing of metal industries result in cost reduction and the supervision on the top nine emitters and the equipment manufacturing industries should be strengthened finally the industrial sectors with large abatement potential are classified into short term and long term key target industries according to the emission abatement cost analyses

short long and spatial dynamics of informal employment di caro p and nicotra g short long and spatial dynamics of informal employment regional studies this paper analyses regional shadow labour markets cross regional migration flows are introduced in a stochastic two sector model used to study the effects of regional interactions on informality empirical results show that informal activities across italian regions are driven by the inefficient provision of public goods and high taxes regional connections are found to be significant place specific reactions of informal employment to national shocks in the official economy are investigated finding that the informal sector can act as a complement to or a substitute for formal activities the summary of the results and policy conclusions are then discussed

institutions informal labor markets and business cycle volatility i build a business cycle labor search and matching model with informal labor markets which shows that different dimensions of institutional quality have similar effects on the size of the informal sector but different effects on the relationship between informality and long run macroeconomic outcomes and between informality and labor market volatility for the same change in informal sector size changes in different proxies for institutional quality have contrasting quantitative implications for the steady state and the volatility of the labor market despite having similar consequences on other macroeconomic variables these results highlight the importance of identifying the source behind changes in the size of the informal sector to characterize the link between informality and business cycle dynamics

returns to physical capital in ethiopia comparative analysis of formal and informal firms summary this paper investigates returns to capital in the formal and informal sectors in ethiopia using parametric and semi parametric regression techniques results show that there is a higher annual median return to capital in the informal sector 52 140 than the formal sector 15 21 however informal firms might benefit from working formally as their capital stock gets larger marginal returns in the informal sector increase with firm size access to reliable markets market uncertainty and owners labor supply on the other hand marginal returns to capital and overall profitability decrease with capital stock contrary to the poverty trap hypothesis

evaluating the performance of chinese fossil fuel power plants by data environment analysis an application of three intermediate approaches in a time horizon abstract to our knowledge the previous studies did not answer the following questions how much does window analysis differ from the original data envelopment analysis dea approaches and how to develop dea window analysis to address these questions we propose three intermediate approaches cross sectional approach window efficiency analysis and window index approach and statistically compare their performances the underlying concern is that we need to examine whether a metrological bias exists in our study the concern is important in guiding policy issues such as energy policy and climate change empirically the proposed approaches are applied to measure the unified efficiency of fossil fuel power plants at a provincial level in china from 2007 to 2017 since these plants are important energy consumers and co2 emitters we obtain two important implications first considerable differences were confirmed among the three approaches thus implying an existence of the methodological bias second beijing the capital of china outperformed the other provinces in terms of their measures since the government has paid serious attention to air pollution emitted from fossil fuel power plants the governmental regulation in beijing is a good example of pollution prevention in china it is expected that the success on beijing will be disseminated to the other provinces

tax evasion and the demand for currency in norway and sweden is there a hidden relationship variables associated with the level of hidden economic activity are examined in terms of their effects on the demand for currency in norway and sweden aggregate time series of marginal tax rates are compiled for this purpose no such effects are evident for norway while in the case of sweden the demand for currency was found to be significantly related to marginal tax rates these estimates are then used as a basis for deriving an estimate of the size of the hidden economy in sweden an analysis of the assumptions underlying this procedure shows that the uncertainty involved in applying the currency approach to measuring the size of the hidden economy is so great as to make it hazardous to rely on such estimates

sequential lending with dynamic joint liability in micro finance this paper develops a theory of sequential lending in groups in micro finance that centers on the notion of dynamic incentives in particular the simple idea that default incentives should be relatively uniformly distributed across time in a framework that allows project returns to accrue over time as well as strategic default we show that sequential lending can help resolve problems arising out of coordinated default thus improving project efficiency vis a vis individual lending inter alia we also provide a justification for the use of frequent repayment schemes as well as demonstrate that depending on how it is manifested social capital has implications for project efficiency and borrower default we next examine the optimal choices for the mfi and derive conditions for the optimality of the group lending arrangement our framework also provides for some plausible hypotheses as to why there has been a recent transition from group to individual lending