an economic theory of self control the concept of self control is incorporated in a theory of individual intertemporal choice by modeling the individual as an organization the individual at a point in time is assumed to be both a farsighted planner and a myopic doer the resulting conflict is seen to be fundamentally similar to the agency conflict between the owners and managers of a firm both individuals and firms use the same techniques to mitigate the problems which the conflicts create this paper stresses the implications of this agency model and discusses as applications the effect of pensions on saving saving and the timing of income flows and individual discount rates

procrastination at the patent office abstract pointing to a limited set of statistics suggesting that examiners turn in much of their work product at the end of quota periods the commerce department has recently raised concerns over examiner procrastination and its consequences for examination quality end loading of review completions alone however is not dispositive evidence of procrastination in this paper we confirm that examiners complete a substantial percentage of reviews at the end of both bi weekly and quarterly quotas and then proceed to test for additional markers that may separate a procrastination explanation for these findings from a range of alternative theories among other tests explored in this regard we predict and find evidence of an immediate spike in end loading upon the onset of examiner telecommuting a change in work environments that likely exacerbates self control problems our findings support a procrastination interpretation for at least some portion of the observed end loading of reviews with our outcomes analysis suggesting that the predominant consequence of this behavior for examination quality is an increase in examination durations

sheepskin effects in the returns to education some previous discussions have dismissed screening theories of education partly on the ground that diploma years of education do not confer especially large earnings gains similarly most empirical research on earnings functions has assumed an absence of sheepskin effects we report evidence however of substantial and statistically significant sheepskin effects although this suggests that the previous dismissals of the screening hypothesis were premature our evidence of sheepskin effects is amenable to nonscreening interpretations also according to screening theories of education individuals with more schooling tend to earn more not because or at least not solely because schooling makes them more productive but rather because it credentiates them as more productive a frequently cited article by layard and psacharopoulos 1974 however dismissed the importance of the screening hypothesis on the grounds that several of its refutable predictions were not supported by available evidence one of these was the sheepskin prediction that wages will rise faster with extra years of education when the extra year also conveys a certificate after surveying a number of studies layard and psacharopoulous henceforth lp concluded that rates of return to dropouts are as high as to those who complete a course which refutes the sheepskin version of the screening hypothesis since publication of the lp paper an undergraduate labor economics textbook has cited lp s analysis of sheepskin effects as telling criticism of the screening hypothesis a prominent proponent of the screening hypothesis riley 1979 has accepted lp s summary of the empirical evidence but responded that some versions of the screening hypothesis do not imply sheepskin effects in the meantime the ongoing flood of empirical research on earnings functions typically has continued to treat the natural logarithm of the wage rate as a linear or occasionally quadratic function of years of education with no allowance for discontinuities in diploma years 2 the estimated rates of return used by lp were based on data that did not disaggregate dropouts earnings by how many years of school they had completed lp acknowledged we would have preferred to show the earnings gain associated with each year of the course including the year when it was successfully completed this note presents a reanalysis of sheepskin effects based on the type of data lp wished they had the results contain very strong evidence of sheepskin effects after all the next section describes our analysis and the following section summarizes and discusses our

sustainability aid and material welfare in small south pacific island economies 1900 1990 abstract the paper discusses the concept of sustainability and puts forward the argument that conventional notions of what constitutes economic development cannot be applied mechanistically to the very small island economies of the pacific in practice what matters is whether the entitlement of island communities to rent incomes remains sustainable this in turn requires that labor access to the modern capitalist economies of the region continues or is opened up and that the major regional powers continue to subsidize consumption levels in the small island countries unless or until those countries achieve a satisfactory level of rent income both of these conditions hinge upon the long run political commitment of aid donor governments to the welfare of island communities and on the skills of island politicians and officials in negotiating and maneuvering for access to aid funds from competing donors

the hyperbolic consumption model calibration simulation and empirical evaluation ur preferences for the long run tend to conflict with our short run behavior when planning for the long run we intend to meet our deadlines exercise regularly and eat healthfully but in the short run we have little interest in revising manuscripts jogging on the stairmaster and skipping the chocolate souffleala mode delay of gratification is a nice long term goal but instant gratification is disconcertingly tempting this gap between long run intentions and short run actions is apparent across a wide range of behaviors including saving choices a 1997 survey found that 76 percent of respondents believe they should be saving more for retirement looking only at respondents who believed they were at an age where you should be seriously saving already the survey found that 55 percent reported being behind in their savings and only 6 percent reported being ahead farkas and johnson 1997 the report on the survey concluded t he gaps between people s atti tudes intentions and behavior are troubling and threaten increased insecurity and dissatisfaction for people when they retire americans are simply not doing what logic and their own reasoning suggests they should be doing a 1993 luntz webber merrill lynch survey found similar answers when baby boomers were asked what percentage of your annual household income do you think you should save for retirement and what percentage of your annual

country size and the medium term growth process some cross country evidence abstract this paper summarizes the findings of an empirical study of the influence of country size and remoteness on the sources of growth and nature of the growth process in industrializing countries various hypotheses were investigated in the study in the context of a model of disequilibrium growth which allows for technological spillover between sectors and between countries the model was estimated for a large sample of developing economies for 1973 1985 the stability of the model s parameters for various dimensions of size and remoteness was tested evidence of significant structural breaks permitted inferences to be drawn about how the nature and extent of technological spillovers are influenced by country size this paper reports on the results and implications of the empirical tests

competitive strategies for late entry into a market with a dominant brand this paper considers optimal positioning advertising and pricing strategies for a firm contemplating entry in a market dominated by an entrenched competitor drawing on behavioral research on consumer preference formation we develop an individual level model that reflects differing consumer responses to similar products offered by the dominant brand and later entrants an effect we term asymmetric preferences from the resulting aggregate market response model we derive several competitive implications notably 1 that preference asymmetry can make a differentiated late entry strategy optimal even if preferences would appear to dictate otherwise and 2 that me too strategies are not equilibrium late entry strategies more generally our analysis suggests that preference asymmetry can contribute to the persistent competitive advantage of dominant brands

pension plan characteristics and framing effects in employee savings behavior abstract defined contribution pensions in many postsecondary institutions are funded by a combination of an employer premium and a mandatory employee premium individuals can also contribute to a supplemental savings account holding constant total compensation standard reasoning suggests that supplemental savings should depend negatively on the sum of the employer and employee pension contributions contrarily we find that the supplementary savings of professors are significantly more sensitive to employee contributions than to employer contributions this asymmetry is consistent with different marginal propensities to save out of the salary and pension components of compensation nevertheless impacts on lifetime utility are relatively modest

basic needs government debt and economic growth this paper investigates the relationships between basic needs and economic growth where the interactions between output health nutrition and education are explicitly simultaneous we find a unidirectional relationship that improving basic welfare contributes strongly to labour productivity change but a clear reverse causation only from growth to nutrition there are substantial differences in the patterns of simultaneous interactions at different income and welfare levels there are strong self reinforcing effects of literacy and debt service on poverty making it difficult for poor countries to rectify their situation channelling resources towards improving health education and nutrition could bring dramatic economic returns

small states small problems income growth and volatility in small states abstract small states have attracted a large amount of research in this paper we test whether small states are any different from other states in terms of their income growth and volatility outcomes we find that controlling for location small states have higher per capita gdp than other states this income advantage is largely due to a productivity advantage constituting evidence against the idea that small states suffer from an inability to exploit increasing returns to scale small states also do not have different per capita growth rates than other states small states do have greater volatility of annual growth rates which is in part due to their greater volatility of terms of trade shocks this terms of trade based volatility is in turn due to small states greater openness their greater openness on balance has however a positive net payoff for growth the one differential policy measure that might be relevant for small states is to further open up to international capital markets in order to better diversify risk but the benefits of even that are still unresolved in the literature we conclude that small states are no different from large states and so should receive the same policy advice that large states do

policy selectivity forgone debt and donor behavior in africa authors assess the dynamics behind the high net resource transfers by donors and creditors to sub saharan african countries analyzing the determinants of overall net transfers for a panel of 37 recipient countries in 1978 98 authors find that country policies mattered little donors especially bilateral donors actually made greater transfers to countries with high debt largely owed to multilateral creditors when policies were bad authors conclude that comprehensive debt relief has the potential though not the certainty to restore selectivity in support of good policies that would make development assistance more effective going forward and increase public support in donor countries

is addiction rational theory and evidence this paper makes two contributions to the modeling of addiction first we provide new and convincing evidence that smokers are forward looking in their smoking decisions using state excise tax increases that have been legislatively enacted but are not yet effective and monthly data on consumption second we recognize the strong evidence that preferences with respect to smoking are time inconsistent with individuals both not recognizing the true dife culty of quitting and searching for self control devices to help them quit we develop a new model of addictive behavior that takes as its starting point the standard rational addiction model but incorporates time inconsistent preferences this model also exhibits forward looking behavior but it has strikingly different normative implications in this case optimal government policy should depend not only on the externalities that smokers impose on others but also on the internalities imposed by smokers on themselves we estimate that the optimal tax per pack of cigarettes should be at least one dollar higher under our formulation than in the rational addiction case

an economic approach to influence activities in organizations members of organizations spend considerable time effort and ingenuity attempting to influence decision makers such influence activities may bring benefits to the organization but they also involve real costs this essay offers an economic rationale for such influence activity as representing rational self interested behavior in the presence of informational asymmetries and an analysis of how the design of the organization s structure and policies should respond to the incentives for attempting influence it is posited that information valuable for the organization s decision making is directly available only to members of the organization who have some personal stake in the decisions these individuals may then have an incentive to try to manipulate the information they develop and provide in order to influence the resulting decisions to their benefits this can be costly both in degrading the quality of decision making and in diverting the attention and effort of the organization s members from more productive activities the organization has three different methods it can employ to discourage excessive influence activities and to encourage more directly productive uses of time and effort it can limit access to decision makers and participation in decision making it can alter its decision making criteria to favor those performing well in productive activities and it can provide direct financial incentives to encourage the desired allocation of effort it is shown that an efficiently designed organization will use such financial incentives only as a last resort instead it will always first alter its decision participation policies and decisionmaking criteria

the impact of primary schooling on economic development a review of the evidence abstract the contribution of primary schooling to economic development is greater than has conventionally been percieved this review of recent research shows that primary schooling increases labour productivity in both urban and rural sectors and that the economic returns to such investment are typically high in addition it reduces fertility improves health and nutrition and promotes other behavioural and attitudinal changes which are helpful to economic development investment strategies which give primary schooling an important place would be more conducive of growth with equity than many alternatives priorities for government and donor policies are indicated as are those for future research

hyperbolic discounting and the phillips curve using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model we show that the interaction of staggered nominal contracts with hyperbolic discounting leads to inflation having significant long run effects on real variables

smoking cessation a model of planned vs actual behavior for time inconsistent consumers we offer a simple model of intertemporal choice to characterize how planned versus actual behaviors evolve for time inconsistent smokers our results suggest that smokers participation and cessation decisions are governed by the interplay between three effects the cessation effect leads smokers to advance their plans to quit smoking whereas the procrastination effect leads them to consecutively revise their planned quitting age upwards consequently the duration of smoking is effectively governed by which one of these two effects is dominant finally for certain consumer segments a threshold effect causes an all or nothing type of extreme smoking behavior based on certain critical values of present biased preferences our results provide some preliminary evidence that both marketing efforts by tobacco firms and public policy initiatives can have a significant influence on smoking behavior in particular we find that reductions in the age at which individuals start smoking may not only vastly extend their duration of smoking but also convert potential never smokers into lifetime smokers finally we estimate a hazard model using survey data from over 800 smokers to provide evidence in support of our theoretical model

self control and incentives an analysis of multiperiod quota plans it is well known that individuals often fail to exert proper self control in organizational settings this can lead to reduced productivity and profits we use the literature on present biased preferences to model employees self control problems and examine how firms can design compensation plans to reduce the negative consequences of their employees self control problems our results suggest that firms can mitigate self control problems by delaying payment to the employees this can be achieved by using multiperiod quotas such as annual quotas to compensate employees for their cumulative performance although such plans are prevalent in the market there is little theoretical research that shows when multiperiod quota plans can be optimal the paper provides one potential explanation for the widespread use of such quota plans interestingly we find that such plans may be optimal despite the fact that they encourage more procrastination we also find that such plans lead to higher effort by the employees and can sometimes improve the welfare of not only the firm but also the employees

economic conditions and alcohol problems this study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and two alcohol related outcomes liquor consumption and highway vehicle fatalities fixed effect models are estimated for the 48 contiguous states over the 1975 1988 time period alcohol consumption and traffic deaths vary procyclically with a major portion of the effect of economic downturns attributed to reductions in incomes rather than employment the intake of hard liquor is the most sensitive to the state of the macroeconomy there is no evidence however that fluctuations in economic conditions have a disproportionate impact on the drunk driving of young adults

stop go monetary policy we propose and estimate several discrete choice models of monetary policy decision making that feature time varying inertia the models permit us to account for three stylized facts characterizing monetary policymaking in the united states 1 target interest rates are gradually adjusted in small discrete movements 2 there are some long stretches of time in which rates are repeatedly moved and 3 there are other long stretches in which the policy rate does not change our models are used to account for the fed s failure to adopt promptly an easier policy stance during the recession of 2001 they are also used to explain delay in tightening the policy stance during the 2003 2006 period that featured a bubble in house prices and was followed by a financial crisis in 2008

the special problems of small countries abstract the paper describes the characteristics of small economies and discusses the advantages and disadvantages arising from these characteristics it is shown that small economies by their very nature tend to be less diversified and to have relatively high foreign trade risks in spite of these drawbacks a number of small economies have achieved high rates of economic growth some reasons given to explain this success are the relatively small size of the agricultural sector concentration on labor intensive exports and sociological and psychological factors such as the ability to respond in a flexible manner to changes the paper ends with a discussion on whether the drawbacks of small size can be overcome by economic integration it is argued that the experience in this regard is disappointing

multiperiod contracting and salesperson effort profiles the optimality of hockey stick giving up and resting on laurels the authors study multiperiod sales force incentive contracting in which salespeople can engage in effort gaming a phenomenon that has extensive empirical support focusing on a repeated moral haz

roscas as financial agreements to cope with self control problems abstract we consider a model in which people with limited self control can sign binding financial agreements among themselves thereby forming coalitions we show that these financial agreements may help them to alleviate their self control problems we then demonstrate that there exists a stable structure of coalitions in which people form rotating savings and credit associations roscas we therefore provide a behavioral rationale for one of the most prevalent and puzzling financial institutions in developing countries finally we derive and discuss some empirical predictions

how many paychecks an example of a self imposed constraint i introduction the case of ulysses and the sirens is one of the most interesting puzzles for the model of rational behavior 1 ulysses knew enough about himself to know that he would not be able to control his behavior when under the spell of the sirens so he had himself bound to the mast had wax put into the ears of his crew and instructed them to completely disregard any gestures he might make it is reasonable to ask if ulysses knew enough to know that he would lose control when under the spell of the sirens why didn t he know enough to maintain control more generally if you are rational enough to know you are going to be irrational why can t you stop the irrationality apparently things are not so simple psychiatrist george ainslie 1975 1992 argues based upon a large body of experimental evidence in psychology that individuals have an inherent tendency to be myopic and this leads them to have to develop rules of behavior which limit options given the story of ulysses the process of imposing such constraints on oneself is sometimes called binding the christmas club is the traditional example of a self imposed constraint 2 the local credit union offers an account which has all of the attributes of the normal savings account and the added characteristic that the account holder cannot make any withdrawals until a specified date close to christmas given that the lack of flexibility inherent in the christmas club is combined with no compensating advantage of any sort e g higher interest rates standard analysis suggests the christmas club would have no takers but in fact there are many christmas club members 3 apparently a large number of individuals feel they cannot trust themselves to save money for christmas shopping in a normal savings account the christmas club gives them a way of tying their hands it is a self imposed constraint in this paper i examine behavior which might also be an example of a self imposed constraint at the college of william and mary a full time faculty member has the option of receiving her salary in eighteen equal payments over the nine month academic year or in twenty four equal payments over the entire year starting in september the twenty four month option has the look of a self imposed constraint 4 the faculty member who takes this option is foregoing interest earnings from a simple plan which deposits eighteen payments earns interest and finances the summer perhaps the faculty members who elect the twenty four payment option are like ulysses they know enough to know that they will not follow the plan they know enough to make a preference for the twenty four payment option is not necessarily evidence of a self imposed constraint taking eighteen payments squirreling away some of each payment and financing one s summer expenditures from what had accumulated during the academic year is a costly endeavor therefore a standard economic model based on transactions costs could also explain a preference for the twenty four payment option the purpose of this paper is to present a test of these two models ii theoretical analyses of the choice of the twenty four payment option a standard economic model the task at hand is to explain the demand for the twenty four payment option as compared to the eighteen payment option since the total salary is the same in both cases at any nonzero interest rate the present value of the eighteen payment option dominates the present value of the twenty four payment option this suggests that on a strict basis of economic rationality there would be no takers for the twenty four payment option at william and mary however over 67 percent of the faculty choose the twenty four payment option there is however a clear difficulty with simply comparing present values in this case such a comparison implicitly assumes that trips to the bank are costless a complete model should consider transactions costs

present biased preferences self awareness and shirking abstract we model a mechanism design problem in which the principal owns a project that requires work effort by an agent but agents may have time inconsistent present biased preferences and lack complete self awareness of these preferences the self control problem and naivete of an agent may lead him to agree to a contract but later shirk or slack off even though doing so is observable when the principal cannot severely punish shirking and agents are completely naive the second best solution entails allowing a present biased agent to slack off in order to avoid a greater loss due to shirking with greater self awareness among present biased agents the principal may do better by screening some from accepting the contract furthermore when shirking can be severely punished this does not lead to contracts that eliminate effects of the self control problem instead the principal may exploit present biased agents by offering a contract that allows them to slack off which agents fail to foresee they will choose to do but at the expense of foregoing much compensation

aid and income another time series perspective summary this study provides a replication of the empirical results reported by nowak lehmann dreher herzer klasen and martinez zarzoso 2012 henceforth ndhkm we uncover that ndhkm relied on a regression model which included a log transformation of variables that are not strictly positive this led to nonrandom omission of a large proportion of observations furthermore we show that ndhkm s use of co integrated regressions is not a suitable empirical strategy for estimating the causal effect of aid on income evidence from a panel var model estimated on the dataset of ndhkm suggests a positive and statistically significant long run effect of aid on income

to be consumed with moderation abstract we study the optimal behavior of a hyperbolic discounting agent who has incomplete information about his own preferences and can only learn them through consumption we show that even if moderate current consumption and moderate future consumption always dominates abstinence the agent may optimally decide not to consume as a commitment device against inefficient learning that would lead to future excesses this provides a rationale for why smokers gamblers or compulsive buyers stick to second best personal rules of behavior such as abstinence without invoking standard habit formation arguments we also study how urges modify the strategy of the individual

aid volatility and real business cycles in a developing open economy this article analyzes the impact of the unpredictability of foreign aid on macroeconomic fluctuations in the recipient country i build a small open economy business cycle model that accounts for foreign aid shocks with no preference shocks the model is calibrated to reflect the structural empirical regularities of cote d ivoire a typical aid dependent developing country the parameters of the exogenous shocks are estimated using bayesian methods and time series data for cote d ivoire the model produces business cycle patterns that are consistent with the data and key stylized facts specifically the excess volatility of consumption with respect to output is successfully replicated the results suggest that the unpredictability of foreign aid contributes to explain the volatility of business cycles in the recipient economy and has negative welfare effects

returns to education a further international update and implications this paper updates evidence on the returns to investment in education by adding estimates for new countries and refining existing estimates to bring the total number of country cases to over 60 the new cross country evidence confirms and reinforces earlier patterns namely that returns are highest for primary education the general curricula the education of women and countries with the lowest per capita income the findings have important implications for directing future investment in education which for efficiency and equity purposes should concentrate on these priority areas

how do contribution limits affect contributions to tax preferred savings accounts abstract contributions to tax preferred savings accounts are typically constrained by a contribution limit these limits influence contributions not only for taxpayers currently constrained by the limit but also for those contributing less than the limit i develop a simple life cycle model in which taxpayers exhibit use it or lose it contribution behavior this connects current contributions to future contribution limits and implies that an increase in contribution limits can decrease contributions empirical evidence from microdata provides support for the model using variation from canadian limit reforms i find that larger future contribution room is associated with smaller contributions

education returns across quantiles of the wage function alternative explanations for returns to education by race in south america private wage returns to schooling in south africa in 1993 are twice as high for nonwhites as for whites and substantially higher at advanced levels of schooling for both races to explore how these returns might be expected to change as the proportion of africans with secondary and higher education increases quantile regressions for the wage function are estimated for african males and white males if the residuals based on a standard wage function specification are interpreted as omitted ability and it is assumed that ability increases decreases returns to schooling then we expect quantile returns to increase decrease at higher quantiles this is not observed for africans at the higher and secondary school level but is evident among whites at higher educational levels the opposite pattern of differential returns favoring the least able i e lowest deciles is reported for the lower tail of the educational distribution that is for africans at the level of primary school and for whites at secondary school authors

reconsidering the moral hazard risk avoidance tradeoff the received model for optimal demand side cost sharing trades off moral hazard and risk avoidance this model appears to lie behind recent increases in initial cost sharing such as those embodied in health savings accounts and health reimbursement accounts at the same time there is evidence that lower cost sharing for certain drugs can reduce future total health care costs and or improve future health and this may be true of other medical services as well to the degree that individuals remain in the same common insurance pool lower cost sharing that induces increases in certain services that reduce total costs including future costs represents a classic case for a subsidy and will minimize an employer s labor costs even if total costs increase the value of a change in health could increase more in that case such a subsidy is consistent with recent work in behavioral economics for those with self control problems

foreign aid and domestic absorption this paper introduces a new supply push instrument for foreign aid to be used together with an instrumental variable estimator that filters out unobserved common factors we use this instrument to study the effects of aid on macroeconomic ratios and especially the ratios of consumption investment imports and exports to gdp we cannot reject the hypothesis that aid is fully absorbed rather than used to build foreign reserves or exiting as capital flight nor do we find evidence of dutch disease effects aid leads to higher consumption while the evidence that it promotes investment is less robust

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

a dual self model of impulse control we propose that a simple dual self model gives a unified explanation for several empirical regularities including the apparent time inconsistency that has motivated models of quasi hyperbolic discounting and rabin s paradox of risk aversion in the large and small the model also implies that self control costs imply excess delay as in the o donoghue and rabin models of quasi hyperbolic utility and it explains experimental evidence that increased cognitive load makes temptations harder to resist the base version of our model is consistent with the gul pesendorfer axioms but we argue that these axioms must be relaxed to account for the effect of cognitive load

procrastination and obedience in this lecture i shall focus on situations involving repeated decisions with time inconsistent behavior although each choice may be close to maximizing and therefore result in only small losses the cumulative effect of a series of repeated errors may be quite large thus in my examples decision makers are quite close to the intelligent well informed individuals usually assumed in economic analysis but cumulatively they make seriously wrong decisions that do not occur in standard textbook economics this lecture discusses and illustrates several pathological modes of individual and group behavior procrastination in decision making undue obedience to authority membership of seemingly normal individuals in deviant cult groups and escalation of commitment to courses of action that are clearly unwise in each case individuals choose a series of current actions without fully appreciating how those actions will affect future perceptions and behavior the standard assumption of rational forwardlooking utility maximizing is violated the nonindependence of errors in decision making in the series of decisions can be explained with the concept from cognitive psychology of undue salience or vividness for example present benefits and costs may have undue salience relative to future costs

optimal sales force compensation in dynamic settings commissions vs bonuses this paper studies optimal sales force compensation plans in a multiperiod moral hazard model when the firm wants to implement high effort in every period but only obtains aggregate information on sales the sales agent chooses effort each period after observing previous sales and his incentive responsiveness might change over time the paper derives conditions under which a linear incentive scheme a pure commission dominates a bonus plan and vice versa a commission is optimal if the agent is most difficult to motivate in the last period otherwise combining the commission with a bonus plan can lower the firm s cost of providing incentives in earlier periods the results are robust to different types of cost externalities and demand externalities across periods however if the firm obtains intermediate sales information bonus plans dominate commissions this paper was accepted by j miguel villas boas marketing

small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities abstract many small island developing states sids face special disadvantages associated with small size insularity remoteness and proneness to natural disasters these factors render the economies of these states very vulnerable to forces outside their control a condition which sometimes threatens their very economic viability the gdp or gnp per capita of these states often conceals this reality in this paper the major vulnerabilities faced by sids are discussed and when possible quantified in the form of an index an attempt is also made to construct a composite index of vulnerability

aid policies and growth the authors of this paper use a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid economic policies and growth of per capita gdp in panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and 6 four year periods 1970 93 they find that the policies that have a great effect on growth are those related to fiscal surplus inflation and trade openness they construct an index for those three policies and have that index interact with foreign aid they have instruments for both aid and aid interacting with policies they find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal monetary and trade policies in the presence of poor policies aid has no positive effect on growth this result is robust in a variety of specifications which include or exclude middle income countries include or exclude outliers and treat policies as exogenous or endogenous they examine the determinants of policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected policies either for good or for ill they estimate an aid allocation equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donors pursuit of their own strategic interests in a counterfactual they reallocate aid reduce the role of donor interests and increasing the importance of policy such a reallocation would have a large positive effect on developing countries growth rates

the source of optimality in action it is well known that the nature of the information set and the axioms of rational choice are critical in determining the type of ranking on which agents are held to act in economic theory this paper argues that the concept of the optimising agent is also sensitive to the conception of the relation between a ranking of options facing an agent and concrete action what is termed the realisation process three conceptions of the realisation process are examined which are seen to lead to three quite distinct views on the role of agency the enabling conditions under which the concept of the optimising agent may be legitimately applied and the resulting domain of application of optimisation

pricing of conspicuous goods a competitive analysis of social effects abstract social needs play an important role in the purchase of conspicuous goods in this article the authors extend traditional economic models to accommodate social needs such as desire for uniqueness and conformism and examine their implications for pricing conspicuous goods first in the context of a duopoly the authors identify the conditions under which the desire for uniqueness can increase demand among some consumers as the price of a product increases second the authors show that though the desire for uniqueness leads to higher prices and firm profits a desire for conformity leads to lower prices and profits third the authors find that consumers purchase high quality products not because of their desire for uniqueness but despite it finally marketers of conspicuous goods may find it beneficial not to emphasize the functional differences among their products when the need for uniqueness is high in a laboratory test the authors find support for the claim that demand for a product amo

income schooling and ability evidence from a new sample of identical twins we develop a model of optimal schooling investments and estimate it using new data on approximately 700 identical twins we estimate an average return to schooling of 9 percent for identical twins but estimated returns appear to be slightly higher for less able individuals simple cross section estimates are marginally upward biased these empirical results imply that abler individuals attain more schooling because they face lower marginal costs of schooling not because of higher marginal benefits

product variety and endogenous pricing with evaluation costs one important decision firms must make is to select the product line characteristics and number of products to offer consumers this paper explores the effect of the interaction between consumer evaluation costs and pricing on the optimal product line length to offer consumers before deciding to buy a product among all products offered a consumer learns the product line length given the product line length a consumer decides whether to evaluate the products available and their prices this decision to evaluate depends on the expected consumer surplus after the evaluation being greater than the evaluation costs when the firm offers few products the firm may not attract many consumers because of lack of product fit and may be forced to offer low prices when the firm offers many products all consumers will find a great product fit that is the variance of consumer valuations per product chosen is lower this allows the firm to charge high prices to extract ex post consumer surplus resulting in lower ex ante expected consumer surplus which may lead consumers not to evaluate the products in the first place that is by offering fewer products a firm can commit not to extract all possible consumer surplus these two forces may then lead to the existence of an interior optimal number of products to offer the optimal number of products offered is decreasing in the evaluation costs

economic development as self discovery in the presence of uncertainty about what a country can be good at producing there can be great social value to discovering costs of domestic activities because such discoveries can be easily imitated we develop a general equilibrium framework for a small open economy to clarify the analytical and normative issues we highlight two failures of the laissez faire outcome there is too little investment and entrepreneurship ex ante and too much production diversification ex post optimal policy consists of counteracting these distortions to encourage investments in the modern sector ex ante but to rationalize production ex post we provide some informal evidence on the building blocks of our model

quota based compensation plans for multiterritory heterogeneous salesforces we compare quota based salesforce compensation plans with the blss plan i e the optimal curvilinear agency theory based compensation plans proposed in basu lal srinivasan and staelin basu a k r lal v srinivasan r staelin 1985 salesforce compensation plans an agency theoretic perspective marketing sci 4 fall 267 291 a quota plan pays a fixed salary which is supplemented by commission income that is a prespecified fraction of the dollar sales that exceed the quota for a salesforce comprised of multiple salespersons territories we consider a basic quota plan where the commission rate and salary remain the same across salespersons however quotas vary across salespersons territories compared to the blss plan that is individually tailored to each salesperson territory the basic quota plan s total nonoptimality in profit has two components i a shapeinduced nonoptimality arising from the fact that the quota based plan does not have the same optimal shape as the curvilinear blss pl

a comparison of the economic performance of different micro states and between micro states and larger countries the economic performance of micro states and those sub national regions enjoying a high degree of autonomy is a generally under researched area this paper builds on earlier research armstrong and read 1995 by employing quantitative techniques to test 1 a the extent to which the economic performance of micro states differs by comparing their gnp per capita with that of the region in which they are located and with the countries to which they are adjacent 2 b whether some micro states perform better than others as a result of differences in their economic structure and 3 c whether the rates of growth of micro states have been faster or slower than those of larger countries considerable diversity among micro states is revealed although most exhibit strong economic performance

life cycle consumption of a harmful and addictive good david goldbaum this article demonstrates that the endogenous desire to quit smoking can result from a rational consumption path chosen at the time the consumer begins smoking this result is obtained without relying on hidden costs or unknown preferences a finite lived agent chooses a path of consumption of a harmful and addictive good to maximize present discounted utility the consumer chooses his consumption rate to account for the future health consequence of smoking and the withdrawal costs of quitting a consumer may choose to smoke even if it means a lowered utility level for the majority of the time spent smoking jel d91 c61 i12 i introduction some of what we consume for pleasure can be harmful economists assume that consumers take measure of the potential harm and balance it against the pleasure derived from consumption when both the pleasure and the harm occur at the time of consumption the decision is straightforward some goods though impose a cost borne at some future date requiring intertemporal planning these present a greater challenge to the consumer and to the economist trying to explain the consumer s behavior at times observed behavior implores us to question whether the consumer is properly weighing the costs and benefits in a manner that maximizes his or her utility theoretically for each item under consideration the rational consumer properly balances the lifetime benefits derived from the consumption against the lifetime costs some observed behavior seems to contradict this rational approach to consumption in particular it is common for people to begin smoking cigarettes during their youth only to endogenously make a decision to quit at a future date to integrate this behavior with rationality modelers have proposed hidden costs multiple selves changing preferences or other strategies that limit the decision making ability of the youth in all of these cases for some consumers the decision to smoke is a mistake made during youth that has to be reversed at some cost as a middle aged adult this article aims to demonstrate that a lifetime path of consumption in which a person consumes a harmful and addictive good while young and quits at some later date is a path that is perfectly consistent with rational behavior it is not necessary to assume that mid life quitters are displaying irrational or time inconsistent behavior if all information regarding a good s harmful properties is revealed some consumers will still choose a path that requires quitting mid life this paper primarily examines the consumption of cigarettes but also includes analysis of a nonaddictive unhealthy good both of these harmful goods provide the consumer with immediate pleasure but at the cost of decreasing life expectancy background becker and murphy 1988 bm introduced the concept of rational addiction the idea that addicts are forward looking rational consumers present consumption choices reflect not only current utility considerations and budget constraints but also incorporate the anticipated impact of present consumption on future utility and budget constraints bm examine the behavior response of addicts to exogenous shocks changes from a steady state including the desire to quit originate only from exogenous shocks such as a change in the relative price of the good or a revelation about the detrimental health consequences of the addictive good that alters the consumer s utility derived from consumption the model offers no mechanism by which smokers may choose to alter behavior endogenously in contrast to bm s smokers many of today s smokers appear to quit in absence of an external shock anyone who began smoking after 1966 has been subjected to the legislated health warnings appearing on cigarette packages since that time 1 antismoking messages in radio and television advertisements during the 1950s and 1960s also helped to make the health consequences of smoking common knowledge

marketing of vice goods a strategic analysis of the package size decision consumers are often unable to resist the temptation of overconsuming certain products such as cookies crackers soft drinks alcohol etc to control their consumption some consumers buy small packages or abstain from purchasing the product altogether other consumers however still purchase large packages and overconsume from a strategic perspective firms have the option of introducing small packages or only offering large packages we use the literature on hyperbolic discounting to model consumers self control problems and examine conditions under which firms will offer small packages to help consumers combat their self control problem and how this offering in turn affects prices profits consumer and social welfare our results show that introducing small packages can increase firms profits only when a small fraction of consumers have overconsumption problems or when small packages can bring in new customers additionally we find that competition can sometimes reduce the incentives for firms to introduce small packages this is particularly true when a large fraction of consumers is attracted to small packages we also find that firms profits can sometimes decrease if they produce healthier alternatives of their goods our analysis of consumer welfare reveals that small packages enhance consumer and social welfare even though they sometimes increase the consumption of vice goods

a model of focusing in economic choice we present a generally applicable theory of focusing based on the hypothesis that a person focuses more on and hence overweights attributes in which her options dier more our model predicts that the decisionmaker is too prone to choose options with concentrated advantages relative to alternatives but maximizes utility when the advantages and disadvantages of alternatives are equally concentrated in intertemporal choice because the relative concentrations of an option s costs and benets can be dierent from the perspective of a single period and the perspective of the entire choice problem the decisionmaker often exhibits a form of time inconsistency she is present biased when the costs of current misbehavior are distributed over many future dates such as in harmful consumption but future biased when the benet of many

choice and procrastination author s o donoghue ted rabin matthew abstract recent models of procrastination due to self control problems assume that a procrastinator considers just one option and is unaware of her self control problems we develop a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self control problems this menu model replicates earlier results and generates new ones a person might forego completing an attractive option because she plans to complete a more attractive but never to be completed option hence providing a non procrastinator additional options can induce procrastination and a person may procrastinate worse pursuing important goals than unimportant ones

compensation plans for single and multi product salesforces an application of the holmstrom milgrom model the agency theory approach to understanding salesforce compensation plans is modified to incorporate the intratemporal nature of the salesperson s effort rate decision i e the decision about the effort rate at any given point in time potentially depends upon the sales performance up to that point in time in the accounting period under the assumptions considered in this paper holmstrom and milgrom 1987 have shown that the optimal compensation plan is linear in total sales over the accounting period the comparative statics results obtained here corroborate most of the corresponding results in the salesforce compensation literature moreover we derive many additional results not available in the literature it is demonstrated that the commission income as a fraction of total compensation goes up with an increase in the effectiveness of the sales effort or an increase in base sales on the other hand the salary component of the total compensation goes up with increases in uncertainty absolute risk

a rational reconstruction of the compromise effect using market data to infer utilities this article explores the possibility that consumers use market data to make inferences about product utilities the argument is made by means of an example based on the compromise effect found in extant experimental data this phenomenon is generally looked at as a manifestation of deviations from rationality in choice however assuming full rationality i describe a decision rule that is based on consumers inferences about their personal valuation of alternatives from the portfolio of market offerings and some information about their own relative tastes through a number of examples i will argue that consumers often use this or similar decision rules to make inferences about utility i then show that the decision rule may generate compromise effects in experiments and that it may be sustainable the compromise effect could therefore be seen as preliminary evidence that consumers make such inferences

decision making approaches and the propensity to default evidence and implications abstract this paper examines heterogeneity in the responsiveness to default options in a large state retirement plan focusing on individuals decision making approaches as well as their economic and demographic characteristics analyses of a survey of plan participants show that procrastination and the need for cognitive closure are important determinants of the likelihood of default this paper also explores an important implication of defaulting individuals who default are significantly more likely to subsequently express a desire to enroll in a different plan the desire to change plans is also correlated with numerous economic and decision making characteristics including procrastination

discount rates inferred from decisions an experimental study two hundred and four students of economics and finance participated in an intertemporal choice experiment which manipulated three dimensions in a 4 4 4 factorial design scenario postponing a receipt postponing a payment expediting a receipt expediting a payment time delay 0 5 1 2 and 4 years and size of cashflow 40 200 1000 and 5000 individual discount rates were inferred from the responses and then used to test competitively four hypotheses regarding the behavior of discount rates the classical hypothesis asserting that the discount rate is uniform across scenarios time delays and sums of cashflow was flatly rejected a market segmentation approach was found lacking the results support an implicit risk hypothesis according to which delayed consequences are associated with an implicit risk value and an added compensation hypothesis which asserts that individuals require compensation for a change in their financial position

a theory of sales quotas with limited liability and rent sharing sales quotas are a fixture of sales compensation plans and are often associated with a significant discrete bonus this article shows that under certain assumptions about salesperson utility and the distribution of sales outcomes the optimal compensation is a discrete bonus for meeting a sales quota the results are similar when the assumption of agent risk neutrality is relaxed the model has implications for many moral hazard problems where the agent has a liability limitation and job specific skill

information learning and wage rates in low income rural areas in this essay we present evidence that employers in rural areas of developing countries have imperfect information with regard to the productivity of heterogeneous workers in addition to obtaining direct measures of the completeness of employer information we consider the implications of information asymmetries for the structure of casual labor markets we then evaluate the extent to which casual labor markets do in fact exhibit these attributes we find that 1 there is adverse selection out of the time rate labor market 2 employers discriminate statistically given two workers with different observed characteristics but the same actual productivity the worker from the group with the higher average productivity will have a higher wage 3 employers exhibit learning over time the extent of employer ignorance is negatively related to labor market exposure on the part of the workers and 4 calorie consumption affects productivity but is not rewarded in the time rate labor market in concluding we argue that an analysis of wage and employment patterns and the implications of these patterns for human capital investment in rural areas of developing countries that ignored the role of information problems could yield misleading conclusions

schooling information and nonmarket productivity contraceptive use and its effectiveness information from two u s fertility surveys on couples knowledge about and use of specific contraceptives are used to estimate the technology of human reproduction in order to examine the association between schooling and productivity in the household sector the results indicate that more schooled couples have a wider knowledge of contraceptive methods use more efficiently those contraceptive methods for which there is little information and large scope for misuse and are better able to mitigate the effects of their biological constraints fecundity on their fertility compared to less schooled couples excerpt

volatility of development aid from the frying pan into the fire summary the paper building on the authors previous analysis examines the relative volatility of aid flows into developing countries and their domestic revenue using new data and three alternative measures of aid instability relative volatility vis a vis fiscal revenue unpredictability of aid disbursement relative to commitments and failure of aid to smooth fluctuations in aggregate income it finds that the volatility of aid flows is still much greater than that of domestic revenue and that this difference is not decreasing especially in very poor aid dependent countries this high volatility of inflows makes the macroeconomy hard to manage further the influence of aid has been procyclical and not countercyclical aid has failed to act either as a stabilizing force or as an insurance mechanism we argue that to counter these unwelcome trends donors need to be able to respond more speedily and effectively to large adverse shocks and their conditionalities need to become more flexible possibilities explicitly discussed elsewhere in this special section

the intertemporal dynamics of consumer lock in this article examines how dynamic changes in information cost structure and time preferences affect consumers search and switching behavior over time and lead to lock in the information cost structure is conceptualized as a trade off of initial setup costs and ongoing usage costs lock in is defined as consumers decreased propensity to search and switch after an initial investment which is determined both by a preference to minimize immediate costs and by an inability to anticipate the impact of future switching costs the results of three experiments support the proposed mechanism experiment 1 shows that a small initial investment is sufficient to produce lock in experiment 2 shows that the results of a prior investment on lock in are not due to psychological commitment but to a shift in relative costs of incumbent and new options experiment 3 shows that respondents fail to anticipate how their prior investment will lock them in

heterogeneity in returns to schooling econometric evidence from ethiopia this paper investigates whether returns to schooling in ethiopia vary across the wage distribution of individuals to do so it adopts an instrumental variables quantile regression framework that allows for both endogeneity of schooling resulting from unmeasured ability and possible heterogeneity in the impact of schooling the empirical estimates indicate that education contributes more to the earnings of individuals at a lower end of the income distribution

what accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among u s households even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics saving and wealth vary considerably life cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates risk tolerance exposure to uncertainty relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages and income replacement rates these factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile using the panel study of income dynamics and the consumer expenditure survey we find little support for these implications the data are instead consistent with rule of thumb mental accounting or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation jel di d91 e21

the short run macroeconomic impact of foreign aid to small states an agnostic time series analysis abstract this paper investigates the short run macroeconomic impact of aid in small developing countries sdcs by using a vector auto regression var model to study the impact of aid on net import absorption and domestic demand spending we focus on average country effects within two country sub groups and find substantial differences between aid dependent sdcs and other sdcs that are more dependent on natural resources tourism or financial services in aid dependent sdcs aid absorption more or less equals spending although only half of the aid flow is absorbed and spent in the non aid dependent group aid does not seem to be absorbed or spent in any systematic fashion

incentives for procrastinators we examine how principals should design incentives to induce time inconsistent procrastinating agents to complete tasks efficiently delay is costly to the principal but the agent faces stochastic costs of completing the task and efficiency requires waiting when costs are high if the principal knows the task cost distribution she can always achieve first best efficiency if the agent has private information the principal can induce first best efficiency for time consistent agents but often cannot for procrastinators we show that second best optimal incentives for procrastinators typically involve an increasing punishment for delay as time passes

fiscal year ends and nonlinear incentive contracts the effect on business seasonality salesperson and executive compensation contracts typically specify a nonlinear relationship between firm revenues and pay these agents therefore have incentive to manipulate prices influence the timing of customer purchases and vary effort over their firms fiscal years this paper empirically establishes results consistent with agents focusing on performance over the fiscal year most notably in addition to varying with the calendar business cycle manufacturing firms sales are higher at the end of the fiscal year and lower at the beginning than they are in the middle further evidence is found in fiscal year price movements and patterns in the industry variation of fiscal year effects

aid instability as a measure of uncertainty and the positive impact of aid on growth this article contributes to the literature on aid and economic growth we posit that uncertainty measured as the instability of aid receipts will influence the relationship between aid and investment how recipient governments respond to aid and will capture the fact that some countries are especially vulnerable to shocks when we account for uncertainty which is negative and significant we find that aid has a significant positive effect on growth largely due to its effect on the volume of investment the finding that uncertainty of aid receipts reduces the effectiveness of aid is robust when the regression is estimated for the sub sample of african countries these findings hold although the effectiveness of aid appears weaker than for the full sample

optimal sales force compensation we analyze a dynamic moral hazard model to derive optimal sales force compensation plans without imposing any ad hoc restrictions on the class of feasible incentive contracts we explain when the compensation plans that are most common in practice fixed salaries quota based bonuses commissions or a combination thereof are optimal fixed salaries are optimal for small revenue cost ratios quota based bonuses commissions should be used if the revenue cost ratio takes intermediate large values if firms face demand uncertainty markets are rather thin and the revenue cost ratio large firms should combine a commission with a quota based bonus if word of mouth advertising affects sales a dynamic commission that increases over time can be optimal when entering a new market or launching a new product firms should install long term bonus plans

incentives and ratcheting in a multiproduct firm a field experiment we develop a model and derive behavioral predictions for a multiproduct sales force subject to goals set based on past performance we test these predictions using a field experiment in which 53 salespersons from a chilean beverage company face exogenous variations in monthly sales goals confirming our predictions we found that 1 absent strategic considerations no goal ratcheting salespersons increase decrease sales in the product category for which the return to effort increases decreases 2 including strategic considerations behavior reverses salespersons who expect high goal ratcheting decrease increase sales in the category for which the return to effort increases decreases 3 sales did not change for the average salespersons reflecting heterogeneity in the expectations of goal ratcheting rather than unresponsiveness to incentives our study points at the importance of the dynamics of incentive design in particular the importance of understanding the dynamics of goal setting in fir

that s what i thought i wanted miswanting and regret for a standard good in a mass customized world how can a standardized product survive in a mass customized world this requires understanding that consumers often experience problems predicting their future hedonic reactions to new experiences such as custom products leading to feelings of regret this form of regret occurs not because the custom product differs from specifications but because consumers miswanted the design they ordered our analytic model shows that regret aversion induces consumers to design custom products to reflect the attributes of the available standard products consequently regret averse consumers may choose the standard product rather than place a custom order the number of available standard products however moderates both these effects two experiments empirically substantiate the key predictions of the analytical model a the custom product s resemblance to the standard product grows with regret aversion associated with miswanting b there exists a segment of regretfully loyal consumers for the standard product in a mass customized world and it expands with regret aversion c both the above effects are weakened by the presence of a second standard product and d the custom product can increase its market share when the number of standard products increases

symposium on organizations and economics m t r ost production in modern economies occurs within organizations and this production is regulated only to a limited extent by prices the size of some of the largest organizations like general motors or ibm or att if managers didn t they would be replaced and firms that didn t maximize value wouldn t survive accordingly what went on inside the black box was mere detail the behavior of the firm could be described completely without knowledge of those details

returns to investment in education a global update the author updates compilations of rate of return estimates to investment in education published since 1985 and discusses methodological issues surrounding those estimates some key patterns among the three main levels of education primary education continues to exhibit the highest social profitability in all world regions private returns are considerably higher than social returns because of the public subsidization of education the degree of public subsidy increases with the level of education which is regressive social and private returns at all levels generally decline by the level of a country s per capita income overall the returns to female education are higher than those to male education but at individual levels of education the pattern is more mixed the returns to the academic secondary school track are higher than the vocational track since unit cost of vocational education is much higher and the returns for those who work in the private competitive sector of the economy are higher than in the public noncompetitive sector and the returns in the self employment unregulated sector of the economy are higher than in the dependent employment sector controversies in the literature are discussed in the light of the new evidence the undisputable and universal positive correlation between education and earnings can be interpreted in many ways the causation issue on whether education really affects earnings can be answered only with experimental data generated by randomly exposing different people to various amounts of education given the fact that moral and pragmatic considerations prevent the generation of such pure data researchers have to make do with indirect inferences or natural experiments some have been attempted the author looks at the research on overeducation or surplus schooling the conclusions reinforce earlier patterns they confirm that primary education continues to be the number one investment priority in developing countries they also show that educating females is marginally more profitable than educating males that the academic secondary school curriculum is a better investment than the technical vocational tract and that the returns to education obey the same rules as investment in conventional capital that is they decline as investment is expanded