edgeworth price cycles cost based pricing and sticky pricing in retail gasoline markets abstract this paper examines dynamic pricing behavior in canadian retail gasoline markets i find three distinct pricing patterns cost based pricing sticky pricing and sharp asymmetric retail price cycles that resemble the edgeworth cycles of maskin and tirole 1988 i use a markov switching regression to estimate the prevalence of the regimes and the structural characteristics of the cycles themselves i find cycles are more prevalent when there are more small firms and are accelerated and amplified with very many small firms in markets with few small firms sticky pricing dominates the findings are consistent with the theory of edgeworth cycles

indirect effects of an aid program how do cash transfers affect ineligibles consumption cash transfers to eligible households indirectly increase the consumption of ineligible households living in the same villages this effect operates through insurance and credit markets ineligible households benefit from the transfers by receiving more gifts and loans and by reducing their savings thus the transfers benefit the local economy at large looking only at the effect on the treated underestimates the impact one should analyze the effects of this class of programs on the entire local economy rather than on the treated only and use a village level randomization rather than selecting treatment and control subjects from the same community

the effects of the breakup of at t on telephone penetration in the united states the breakup of att that is the price of basic access was well below its incremental or marginal cost the largest component of this cross subsidy arises from the prices of long distance services which are well in excess of their incremental cost however since the price elasticity of basic access is near zero while the price elasticity of long distance services varies from about 0 25 to 1 2 depending on the type of service a large economic efficiency loss occurs why did regulation evolve in the united states to cause this extremely large distortion in prices numerous reasons can and have been put forward see e g peter temin 1987 but our favorite explanation arises from a combination of an outmoded framework of telecommunications regulation and changing technology congressional legislation which established the federal communications commission fcc and remains the basic framework for telecommunications regulation was the communications act of 1934 this legislation led to the current joint regulation of telephone companies by both the fcc and state public utility commissions puc s the communications act codified the goal of universal service the notion that all u s households should have telephone service this policy has been quite successful with u s telephone penetration at 93 3 percent in 1990 according to the current population survey cps yet the fcc is basically in charge of setting long distance prices while state puc s are in charge of setting basic access prices both of which are important factors in telephone penetration during the post world war ii period the technology was changing so that the cost of long distance service was decreasing markedly while the cost of labor intensive basic access continued to rise essentially in line with inflation the so called separations system of regulation established to divide the cost of the public telephone network between federal and state regulatory jurisdictions created increasing cross subsidies as the contribution from long distance grew with increases in both the price cost ratio of long distance and increases in long distance demand economists were aware of this problem and in the 1970 s recommended that longdistance prices be decreased and basic access prices be increased indeed to a first approximation if the basic access price elasticity is zero the first best tax solution of a tdiscussants glenn a woroch gte laboratories molly k macauley resources for the future gerald faulhaber university of pennsylvania

policy watch medicare public policies are often made without much recourse to economic reasoning economists are sometimes unaware of what is happening in the world of public affairs as a result both the quality of public decision making and the role that economists play in it are less than optimal this feature contains short articles on topics that are currently on the agendas of policymakers thus illustrating the role of economic analysis in illuminating current debates suggestions for future columns and comments on past ones should be sent to daniel weinberg c o journal of economic perspectives hhes division bureau of the census department of commerce washington d c 20233

rockets and feathers the asymmetric speed of adjustment of uk retail gasoline prices to cost changes abstract the paper develops a quadratic quantity adjustment model to test the hypothesis put forward in the recent monopolies and mergers commission report that the speed of adjustment of uk retail gasoline prices to cost changes is more rapid when costs rise than when they fall and that the adjustment path is more concentrated around the mean value on the upswing using data from 1982 to 1989 evidence of faster and more concentrated responses to cost increases were found

do auctions and forced divestitures increase competition evidence for retail gasoline markets to foster competition governments can intervene by auctioning licenses to operate or by imposing divestitures the dutch government has done exactly that organizing auctions to redistribute tenancy rights for highway gasoline stations and imposing divestitures of such stations on the four major companies we evaluate this policy experiment and find that the auctioning of licenses without an obligation to divest has no discernible effect on prices an obligation to divest lowers prices by 1 3 2 3 at divested sites moreover prices decrease by 0 9 1 2 at sites nearby this suggests that the observed price decreases are at least partly due to competitive spillovers

comparing open and sealed bid auctions evidence from timber auctions we study entry and bidding patterns in sealed bid and open auctions using data from the u s forest service timber auctions we document a set of systematic effects sealed bid auctions attract more small bidders shift the allocation toward these bidders and can also generate higher revenue a private value auction model with endogenous participation can account for these qualitative effects of auction format we estimate the model s parameters and show that it can explain the quantitative effects as well we then use the model to assess bidder competitiveness which has important consequences for auction design

vertical relationships and competition in retail gasoline markets empirical evidence from contract changes in southern california comment this study examines how much if any of the differences in retail gasoline prices between markets is attributable to differences in the composition of vertical contract types at gasoline stations in each market the purchase of the independent retail gasoline chain thrifty by arco provides a unique opportunity to examine the effects of changes in different vertical contract types on local retail prices this event caused sharp changes in the market share of i fully vertically integrated stations and ii independent stations differentially affecting local markets in the los angeles and san diego metropolitan areas using unique and detailed station level data this study examines how these sharp changes affected local retail prices the detailed data and the research design based on the thrifty station conversions allow for credible estimation of the effects of the market share of independent retailers and vertically integrated retailers on local market prices controlling for any omitted factors at the station level and the city level over time results for the los angeles and san diego metropolitan areas indicate that a decrease in the market share of independent stations has a significant positive impact on local retail price however a change in the market share of refiner owned and operated branded stations does not have a significant impact on local market price these results have important implications as policy makers consider the regulation of vertical contracts as a means to increase competition in gasoline markets the research design and detailed data also allow for inference on the underlying nature of retail gasoline competition

dynamic pricing in retail gasoline markets supergame models of tacit collusion show that supportable price cost margins increase with expected future collusive profits ceteris paribus as a result collusive margins will be larger when demand is expected to increase or marginal costs are expected to decline using panel data on sales volume and gasoline prices in 43 cities over 72 months we find behavior consistent with tacit collusion in retail gasoline markets controlling for current demand and cost current margins increase with expected next month demand and decrease with expected next month cost the results are not consistent with intertemporal l inkages due to inventory behavior or customer loyalty

do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to crude oil price changes the authors test and confirm that retail gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases than to decreases in crude oil prices among the possible sources of this asymmetry are production inventory adjustment lags and market power of some sellers by analyzing price transmission at different points in the distribution chain the authors attempt to shed light on these theories spot prices for generic gasoline show asymmetry in responding to crude oil price changes which may reflect inventory adjustment effects asymmetry also appears in the response of retail prices to wholesale price changes possibly indicating short run market power among retailers

2 00 gas studying the effects of a gas tax moratorium there are surprisingly few estimates of the effects of sales taxes on retail prices especially at the firm level we consider the temporary suspension and subsequent reinstatement of the gasoline sales tax in illinois and indiana following a price spike in 2000 earlier laws set the timing of the reinstatements providing plausibly exogenous changes in the tax rates using a unique dataset of daily prices at the gas station level 70 of the tax suspension is passed on to consumers in the form of lower prices while 80 100 of the tax reinstatements are passed on to consumers some evidence suggests that these short run pass through estimates are smaller near the state borders with the tax reinstatements associated with relatively higher prices up to an hour s drive into neighboring states

gas wars retail gasoline price fluctuations this paper examines the retail gasoline price fluctuations known as gas wars weekly prices for the los angeles area were examined for the period from january 2 1968 through december 23 1975 the observed fluctuations were remarkably regular and apparently large ly predictable the data appear consistent with the recent game theory model of e maskin and j tirole in which competing firms produce edgeworth cycles by undercutting each other and eventually relenting copyright 1993 by mit press

forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors linkages between banks and insurance companies are important when forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors we propose a novel empirical framework that allows us to estimate unobserved linkages in panel data sets that contain observed regressors we find that taking unobserved common factors into account reduces the root mean square forecasts error of firm specific forecasts by up to 9 of system forecasts by up to 14 and by up to 39 for systemic forecasts of more distressed firms relative to a model based on observed variables only estimates of the factor loadings suggest that the correlation of financial institutions has been relatively stable over the forecast period

are all the good men married uncovering the sources of the marital wage premium a longstanding and yet unsettled question in labor economics is does marriage cause men s wages to rise cross sectional wage studies consistently find that married men earn significantly higher wages than do men who are not currently married however it is well known that inferring causal relationships from crosssectional analysis is inappropriate because of the biases introduced by unobserved heterogeneity as a means of circumventing this problem this paper uses data on identical twins to control for unobserved heterogeneity our estimates suggest that marriage increases men s wages by as much as 27 and that little if any of the cross sectional relationship between marriage and wages is due to selection in addition we find little evidence that the marital wage premium is a consequence of household specialization

experts vs discounters consumer free riding and experts withholding advice in markets for credence goods this paper studies the incentives for credence goods experts to invest effort in diagnosis if effort is both costly and unobservable and if they face competition by discounters who are not able to perform a diagnosis the unobservability of diagnosis effort and the credence characteristic of the good induce experts to choose incentive compatible tariff structures this makes them vulnerable to competition by discounters we explore the conditions under which honestly diagnosing experts survive competition by discounters we identify situations in which experts misdiagnose consumers in order to prevent them from free riding on experts advice and we discuss policy options to solve the free riding consumers cheating experts problem

mixed strategy in oligopoly pricing evidence from gasoline price cycles before and under a timing regulation this paper studies oligopoly firms dynamic pricing strategies in a gasoline market before and after the introduction of a unique law that constrains firms to set price simultaneously and only once per day the observed gasoline pricing behavior both before and under the law is well captured by the edgeworth price cycle equilibrium in the maskin and tirole dynamic oligopoly model my results highlight the importance of price commitment in tacit collusion i also find evidence that the price leadership outcome under the law is better predicted by mixed strategies play than by alternative hypotheses

estimation of limited dependent variable models with dummy endogenous regressors applied economists have long struggled with the question of how to accommodate binary endogenous regressors in models with binary and nonnegative outcomes i argue here that much of the difculty with limited dependent variables comes from a focus on structural parameters such as index coefcients instead of causal effects once the object of estimation is taken to be the causal effect of treatment several simple strategies are available these include conventional two stage least squares multiplicative models for conditional means linear approximation of nonlinear causal models models for distribution effects and quantile regression with an endogenous binary regressor the estimation strategies discussed in the article are illustrated by using multiple births to estimate the effect of childbearing on employment status and hours of work

awarding telecom licences the recent european experience this paper analyses the procedures used by different european countries for awarding spectrum licences to potential operators of third generation 3g mobile telephone networks we contrast market based methods such as auctions with bureaucratic methods such as beauty contests they have been used for decisions about two major questions 1 how many licences should be awarded and how much spectrum should each licence give access to 2 which companies should receive which licences and how much should they pay for their licences most countries used a bureaucratic process to answer the first question however germany austria and greece were different and constructed auctions in which the number and size of licences were determined by the auction itself as for the second question there was much variation between countries and both auctions and beauty contests were popular methods we have four main findings first the bureaucratic procedure used by most countries to answer the first question led to companies concealing relevant information from the authorities second while firms may have tried to manipulate the procedures used in germany austria and greece to deter entry to their markets they were surprisingly unsuccessful in this third the traditional economic criticisms of beauty contests seem to apply to some but not to all those that were conducted finally the bidding strategies adopted by the telecom companies were often more complex than those predicted by economic theory

do retail gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to cost shocks the influence of edgeworth cycles asymmetric price cycles similar to edgeworth cycles are appearing in increasingly many retail gasoline markets in the united states and worldwide the asymmetry in the cycles can give rise to a finding of asymmetric price responses to cost shocks asymmetric passthrough this article estimates asymmetric passthrough for the market of toronto which exhibits cycles and decomposes it into two components that part explainable by the cycles and that part driven by other unknown sources significant asymmetric passthrough is found with increases passed through more quickly than decreases a significant cause of the finding is the presence of the cycles themselves

edgeworth price cycles evidence from the toronto retail gasoline market i exploit a new station level twelve hourly price dataset to examine the strong retail price cycles in the toronto gasoline market the cycles appear similar to theoretical edgeworth cycles strongly asymmetric tall rapid and highly synchronous across stations i test a series of predictions made by the theory about how firm behaviors would differentially evolve over the path of a cycle the evidence is consistent with the existence of edgeworth cycles and inconsistent with competing hypotheses while the cycles are an interesting phenomenon for study in their own right the evidence has important policy and welfare implications

price asymmetry in the dutch retail gasoline market abstract this article analyses the retail price adjustments in the dutch gasoline market we estimate an asymmetric error correction model on weekly price changes for the years 1996 2001 we construct five datasets one for each working day the conclusions on asymmetric pricing are shown to differ over these datasets suggesting that the choice of the day for which the prices are observed matters more than commonly believed in our view the insufficient robustness of the outcomes might explain the mixed conclusions found in the literature using these two approaches we also show that the effect of asymmetry on the dutch consumer costs is negligible