endogenous business cycles and systematic stabilization policy we study the effects of fiscal policy rules on the determinacy of rational expectations equilibrium in a perfectly competitive monetary model with constant returns government spending implies a distortion of the monetary steady state due to the implied taxation we show that policy rules that let the gnp share of government spending depend sufficiently negatively on increases in gnp stabilize the economy with respect to endogenous fluctuations for arbitrarily little distortion of the steady state at which stabilization occurs the rules do not involve lump sum taxation negative income taxation or exact knowledge of the economy s laissez faire steady state

renewable to total electricity consumption ratio estimating the permanent or transitory fluctuations based on flexible fourier stationarity and unit root tests abstract this paper examines the stationarity properties of the renewable to total electricity consumption ratio for this purpose we use becker et al s 2006 flexible fourier stationarity test as a benchmark and the recent advanced fourier adf unit root test for 90 countries over the period 1980 2011 the results of the first test document the stationarity of the renewable to total electricity consumption ratio for 65 countries from different geographic areas namely africa america asia pacific and europe however when validated the fourier adf test shows that the null hypothesis of unit root is rejected in all the cases except for the united kingdom the fact that the stationarity in the share of renewable to total electricity consumption is documented by the new proposed more powerful tests does not necessarily mean that the renewable energy policies are ineffective as the previous literature states a wide range of elements might influence the stationarity or non stationarity of this ratio however our findings are important from the modeling perspective as the empirical studies on renewable energy can produce reliable results and use appropriate techniques for modeling and forecasting only if the stationarity or non stationarity is correctly documented

the stabilizing role of government size abstract this paper presents an analysis of how alternative models of the business cycle can replicate the stylized fact that large governments are associated with less volatile economies our analysis shows that adding nominal rigidities and costs of capital adjustment to an otherwise standard rbc model can generate a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of output however in the model we find that the stabilizing effect is only due to a composition effect and it is not present when we look at the volatility of private output given that empirically we also observe a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of consumption we modify the model by introducing rule of thumb consumers in this modified version of our initial model we observe that consumption volatility is also reduced when government size increases in similar way to the observed pattern in oecd economies over the last 45 years

looking for hysteresis in coal consumption in the us abstract this paper estimates an unobserved components model to explore coal consumption in the usa we ask whether coal consumption exhibits hysteresis defined as a dynamic structure in which the cyclical component of coal consumption has permanent effects on the natural component in contrast to previous analysis we provide evidence in favor of hysteresis in coal consumption by using the nonlinear framework proposed recently by perez alonso and di sanzo 13 in which threshold type nonlinearities are introduced by allowing past cyclical consumption to have a different impact on the natural component depending on the regime the article discusses implications of the findings for energy conservation policies

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model with public capital in this paper a real business cycle model with optimal tax rates government borrowing and productive public capital is analysed a specification that allows for multiple stochastic shocks to technology and preferences can reproduce some key features describing the cyclical behaviour of postwar u s fiscal policy the optimally chosen policy variables fluctuate substantially over the business cycle but they do not operate like automatic stabilizers jel classification e62 e32 politiquefiscale optimale dans un modee de cycle d affaires avec capital public ce m6moire analyse un modele de cycle d affaires r6el avec taux d imposition optimaux emprunts gouvernementaux et capital public productif une sp6cification de ce modele qui enregiste plusieurs chocs stochastiques affectant technologie et pr6f6rences peut reproduire quelquesunes des caract6ristiques d6crivant le comportement cyclique de la politique fiscale d apres guerre des etats unis les variables correspondant a la politique optimale choisie fluctuent substantiellement au cours du cycle mais n operent pas comme des stabilisateurs automatiques

energy consumption at business cycle horizons the case of the united states in this paper we propose a simple extension to a keynesian type macro model by augmenting it with energy consumption we show the relationship between energy consumption and output in a macroeconomic setting and ask the question do permanent shocks dominate changes in energy consumption and output at business cycle horizons for the united states to achieve the goal of this paper we undertake a variance decomposition analysis of shocks based on a common trend and common cycle framework within a vector error correction model our main finding is that permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in energy consumption and output at business cycle horizons for the united states

revisited are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary new evidence from a panel suradf approach abstract this paper explores whether the hypothesis of energy consumption stationarity is supported in different regions the stationarity properties indicate that the impact of a reduction in energy consumption or a realignment policy is only temporary and over time the series will revert back to the trend path this paper first applies the panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented dickey fuller panel suradf test developed by breuer et al breuer j b mcnown r wallace m s 2001 misleading inferences from panel unit root tests with an illustration from purchasing power parity review of international economics 9 3 482 493 which allows us to account for possible cross sectional effects and to identify how many and which members of the panel contain a unit root the main conclusion is that the stationarity of energy consumption will be affected by the differences among the five regions made up of 84 countries during the period 1971 2003 similar conclusions are reached when we analyze country groups based on levels of development moreover the results reveal that conventional panel unit root tests can lead to misleading inferences which are biased towards stationarity even if only one series in the panel is strongly stationary lastly some policy implications emerge from our results

short and long run demand for energy in mexico a cointegration approach abstract the objective of this paper is to estimate the demands for the different types of energy consumption for the mexican economy over the period 1965 2001 these demands are modeled as a function of output and the own real price the johansen j econ dynamics control 12 1988 231 procedure and the likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of long run and stable relationships between each type of energy demand and income with the exception of the industrial sector where the cointegrating vector also includes the relative prices the weak exogeneity tests indicate that energy consumption and income do not reject the null hypothesis of weak exogeneity when relative prices are weak exogenous the final econometric models show that relative prices in the short run are relevant in all cases with the exception of the residential sector these results indicate that in mexico the demand for energy is fundamentally driven by income and that the effect of the relative prices is basically concentrated on the short run with the exception of the industrial sector which also shows a long term price impact the strong dependence of energy consumption with respect to income and the price inelastic response indicates that it is necessary to introduce strong measures to decouple energy consumption from output in order to obtain sustainable economic growth in mexico

persistence in natural gas consumption in the us an unobserved component model abstract this article re examines the persistence in natural gas consumption using an alternative methodology in particular we report estimates of an unobserved components model in which hysteresis exists if cyclical and natural gas consumptions do not evolve independently in addition this framework is also extended by using the nonlinear approach in which nonlinearities are introduced by allowing past cyclical component to have a different impact on the natural component depending on the regime in a linear framework our results seem to indicate that hysteresis does not exist however when non linearity is taken into account we provide evidence in favor of hysteresis in natural gas consumption when the variations in natural gas consumption are above the threshold value we also selectively survey the empirical literature that examines the long term properties of energy series in order to put our contribution in perspective

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

household energy consumption versus income and relative standard of living a panel approach our fundamental premise is that energy consumption at the household level is a key indicator of standard of living we employ state of the art panel cointegration techniques to evaluate the nature of the relationship between income measures and energy consumption measures for seven east indian ocean countries the general finding is that income and household electricity consumption are not cointegrated given this finding we conclude that standard of living measures that rely on income measures and do not include household level energy consumption information will necessarily miss important indications of both levels and changes of standard of living

are fluctuations in coal consumption per capita temporary evidence from developed and developing economies abstract this paper investigates the unit root properties of coal consumption per capita for the 47 developed and developing countries for 1965 2010 period to examine the stationary properties of coal consumption per capita lagrange multiplier lm unit root test with one break and two breaks crash model has been utilized according to empirical results the coal consumption is stationary in almost all the countries analyzed thus if the coal consumption is mean or trend reverting then it follows that the series will return to its mean value or trend path and it might be possible to forecast future movements in the coal consumption based on past behaviors of the series for the policy makers it is not necessary to pay attention to coal consumption excepting for indian and italian however for the researchers it is important to take into account the stationarity property of coal consumption and also structural breaks should be modeled in their future studies

the relationship between energy and production evidence from turkish manufacturing industry this paper investigates the relationship between energy and production at the industry level in an emerging market turkey in a multivariate framework the electricity consumption and value added relation is examined in the turkish manufacturing industry while also accounting for labor and fixed investment we find that labor fixed investment electricity consumption and value added are related via three cointegrating vectors the vec results indicate uni directional causality running from electricity consumption to value added generalized impulse response and variance decomposition analyses confirm these results thus energy input appears to be closely related to production hence energy saving technologies and increased energy efficiency may increase the growth in manufacturing value added

indeterminacy and stabilization policy abstract it has been shown that a one sector real business cycle model with sufficient increasing returns in production may possess an indeterminate steady state that can be exploited to generate business cycles driven by animal spirits of agents this paper shows how an income tax schedule that exhibits a progressivity feature can ensure saddle path stability in such a framework and thereby stabilize the economy against sunspot fluctuations conversely an economy with a flat or regressive tax schedule is more susceptible to indeterminacy journal of economic literature classification numbers e32 e62

are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption in malaysia permanent or temporary evidence from lm unit root tests with structural breaks abstract the objective of this paper is to examine whether energy consumption in malaysia disaggregated by sector and type is stationary or contains a unit root to realize our objective we apply the lagrange multiplier lm family of unit root tests with up to two structural breaks depending on the decision rule for selecting between results in the no break one break and two break cases we find that energy consumption is stationary for between 50 per cent and 70 per cent of the disaggregated energy series and between 25 per cent and 50 per cent of sectors implications for the malaysian government s attempts to reduce fossil fuel consumption are discussed

are fluctuations in energy consumption transitory or permanent evidence from a fourier lm unit root test abstract in this study we employ a recently introduced unit root test with a fourier function that is capable of capturing the unknown nature of structural breaks to reexamine the stationarity properties of energy consumption per capita of 109 countries over the period 1960 2011 the results of the fourier lagrange multiplier unit root test show that the energy consumption per capita for algeria australia benin bolivia canada costa rica denmark egypt greece guatemala hong kong ireland jordan korea democratic republic mexico myanmar the netherlands new zealand oman paraguay qatar singapore tanzania the united states and vietnam is stationary indicating that energy demand management policies will not be effective on energy consumption in the long term in addition to this since the energy consumption in these countries does not contain a unit root future movements in energy consumption can be predicted by employing historical behaviors

an investigation of co integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in taiwan applying hsiao a version of the granger causality method this paper examines the causality between energy and gnp and energy and employment by applying recently developed techniques of co integration and hsiao s version of the granger causality to taiwanese data for the 1955 1993 period the phillips perron tests reveal that the series with the exception of gnp are not stationary and therefore differencing is performed to secure stationarity the study finds causality running from gdp to energy consumption without feedback in taiwan it is also found that causality runs from gdp to energy but not vice versa

convergence in per capita energy use among oecd countries abstract unlike previous studies which mainly focus on the integration properties of energy consumption and production this study examines the convergence of per capita energy use among 25 oecd countries over the period 1960 to 2010 in particular newly developed lm and rals lm unit root tests with allowance for two endogenously determined structural breaks are employed the results indicate significant support for per capita energy use convergence among oecd countries

the overvaluation of purchasing power parity abstract recent panel studies of purchasing power parity have reported strong evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates however these studies fail to control for cross sectional dependence in the data this failure has dramatic consequences raising the significance level of tests with a nominal size of 5 percent to as much as 50 percent it is shown in this paper that controlling for cross sectional dependence no evidence against the random walk null can be found in panels of up to 64 real exchange rates this finding cannot be attributed to low power as there is ample power in panels of this size to reject the unit root null

are fluctuations in oil consumption permanent or transitory evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests abstract this paper examines the integration properties of the total oil consumption in 57 countries for the period of 1965 2012 a combination of new and powerful linear and nonlinear stationarity tests are employed to achieve the objectives of the study we find that the oil consumption series in 21 countries follow a nonlinearity path while those in the other countries are linear in nature evidence of the presence of a unit root is found for the total oil consumption series in 38 countries while the series is stationary in the remaining 19 countries an important insight is that the blueprints that were designed to reduce oil consumption are likely to have a permanent effect in most of the countries

u s disaggregated renewable energy consumption persistence and long memory behavior abstract this study examines the degree of time persistence in u s disaggregated renewable energy consumption hydropower geothermal solar wind wood waste and biofuels using innovative fractional integration and autoregressive models with monthly data for the period 1994 2 to 2011 10 the results indicate that in the case of hydropower solar wind waste and biofuels the estimates of fractional integration are higher than 0 5 but less than 1 0 implying nonstationary but mean reverting behavior in the case of geothermal and waste the estimates of fractional integration are around 0 5 and in the boundary case between stationarity and nonstationarity for wood the estimate of fractional integration is significantly smaller than 0 5 and thus showing stationary behavior with long memory behavior furthermore the study incorporates the presence of breaks in the data with the absence of breaks in hydropower geothermal solar wind wood and biofuels but a single break in the case of waste due to the inclusion of non renewable waste from non biogenic sources through 2000 the results reveal that u s disaggregated renewable energy consumption measures are better explained in terms of a long memory model that incorporates persistence components and seasonality

real wage rigidities and the new keynesian model most central banks perceive a trade off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the gap between output and desired output however the standard new keynesian framework implies no such trade off in that framework stabilizing inflation is equivalent to stabilizing the welfare relevant output gap in this paper we argue that this property of the new keynesian framework which we call the divine coincidence is due to a special feature of the model the absence of nontrivial real imperfections we focus on one such real imperfection namely real wage rigidities when the baseline new keynesian model is extended to allow for real wage rigidities the divine coincidence disappears and central banks indeed face a trade off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the welfare relevant output gap we show that not only does the extended model have more realistic normative implications but it also has appealing positive properties in particular it provides a natural interpretation for the dynamic inflation unemployment relation found in the data

an analysis of oil production by opec countries persistence breaks and outliers this study examines the time series behaviour of oil production for opec member countries within a fractional integration modelling framework recognizing the potential for structural breaks and outliers the analysis is undertaken using monthly data from january 1973 to october 2008 for 13 opec member countries the results indicate there is mean reverting persistence in oil production with breaks identified in 10 out of the 13 countries examined thus shocks affecting the structure of opec oil production will have persistent effects in the long run for all countries and in some cases the effects are expected to be permanent

evidence of long memory behavior in u s renewable energy consumption this study examines the degrees of time persistence in u s total renewable energy consumption using innovative fractional integration and autoregressive models with monthly data from 1981 1 to 2010 10 the results indicate that renewable energy consumption is better explained in terms of a long memory model that incorporates persistence components and seasonality the degree of integration is above 0 5 but significantly below 1 0 suggesting nonstationarity with mean reverting behavior the presence of long memory behavior persistence in renewable energy consumption suggests that random shocks may very well move renewable energy consumption from pre determined target levels for a period of time

is per capita electricity consumption stationary time series evidence from oecd countries this study examines the stationary properties of per capita electricity consumption in which the endogenously determined break points are incorporated in 23 high income oecd countries by using annual data over 1960 2005 period we utilize lagrange multiplier lm unit root test that endogenously determines structural breaks in level and or trend we find that 21 country series reject the unit root null hypothesis at the 5 significance level except for 2 country series thus our empirical findings provide significant evidence that per capita electricity consumption is stationary in almost all countries considered in the study the stationarity of per capita electricity consumption indicates that it should be possible for the series to forecast future movements in the energy consumption based on the past behaviors of the series important policy implications emerge from our empirical results of the unit root test with multiple structural breaks

the energy growth nexus reconsidered persistence and causality abstract this article applies a recent econometric framework to the analysis of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the us which allows a joint study of causality and persistence we provide evidence suggesting a nonlinear relationship with a structural break in the most recent regime we find that gdp causes energy consumption and vice versa furthermore both series show persistence i e cyclical and natural components do not evolve independently thus policies oriented to the reduction of energy consumption could constrain economic growth and policy shocks can have permanent effects

energy production in brazil empirical facts based on persistence seasonality and breaks abstract this paper investigates the statistical properties of the production of energy in brazil using long range dependence techniques in monthly data from january 2000 to february 2013 two important features of the data are analyzed in particular its degree of persistence and seasonality the results indicate first that seasonality is an essential issue in modeling the persistence in energy production also the persistence itself measured in terms of the differencing parameter is relevant with orders of integration in the series found to be positive though smaller than 1 and thus implying mean reversion a single structural break is also found in two of the series policy implications of the results obtained are also derived

energy gdp relationship revisited an example from gcc countries using panel causality abstract this work investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product gdp and energy consumption in the six countries of the gulf cooperation council gcc recently developed panel cointegration and causality techniques are used to uncover the direction of energy gdp causality in the gcc empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption evidence shows no support for the hypothesis that energy consumption is the source of gdp growth in the gcc countries such results suggest that energy conservation policies may be adopted without much concern about their adverse effects on the growth of gcc economies

balanced budget rules distortionary taxes and aggregate instability a traditional argument against a balanced budget fiscal policy rule is that it amplifies business cycles by stimulating aggregate demand during booms via tax cuts and higher public expenditures and by reducing demand during recessions through a corresponding fiscal contraction this paper suggests an additional source of instability that may arise from this type of fiscal policy rule it shows that within the standard neoclassical growth model a balanced budget rule can make expectations of higher tax rates self fulfilling if the fiscal authority relies heavily on changes in labor income taxes to eliminate short run fiscal imbalances calibrated versions of the model show that indeterminacy occurs for income tax rates that are empirically plausible for the u s economy and other group of seven countries

fiscal policy and monetary integration in europe fiscal policy economists policy makers and the media often argue that the maastricht treaty and the stability and growth pact make it difficult for governments of emu countries to stabilize their economies with appropriate fiscal policy and to provide adequate public investment our empirical analysis offers little support to this view discretionary budget deficits have actually become more counter cyclical in emu countries after the maastricht treaty as well as in the other eu and non eu industrialized countries we study and while public investment has declined recently in emu countries a similar tendency is apparent in other countries and started well before the maastricht treaty was signed jordi gali and roberto perotti

a new approach to energy consumption per capita stationarity evidence from oecd countries abstract applying a new panel stationary test procedure to data from 32 oecd countries from 1971 to 2013 this study examines the time series properties of per capita energy consumption the results indicate that energy consumption per capita follows a mean reverting process for 16 oecd countries whereas for the remaining 16 oecd countries a mean reverting process is not the case besides energy consumption per capita exhibits some sharp and smooth structural shifts breaks in its mean and or trend levels and the endogenously identified break dates correspond to specific macroeconomic events such as oil crises gulf war asian and global financial crises these results also have important policy implications for the 16 oecd countries that have stationary energy consumption per capita series government policies intended to stabilize energy demand will have no long lasting effects and therefore governments should not adopt unnecessary policy targets for energy demand level however for the remaining 16 oecd countries such policies will have long lasting effects

multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption exports and gdp evidence from a panel of middle eastern countries this paper examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption exports and gross domestic product gdp for a panel of middle eastern countries we find that for the panel as a whole there are statistically significant feedback effects between these variables a 1 per cent increase in electricity consumption increases gdp by 0 04 per cent a 1 per cent increase in exports increases gdp by 0 17 per cent and a 1 per cent increase in gdp generates a 0 95 per cent increase in electricity consumption the policy implications are that for the panel as a whole these countries should invest in electricity infrastructure and step up electricity conservation policies to avoid a reduction in electricity consumption adversely affecting economic growth further policy implications are that for the panel as a whole promoting exports particularly non oil exports is a means to promote economic growth and that expansion of exports can be realized without having adverse effects on energy conservation policies

applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research abstract developments in applied econometrics particularly with regard to unit root tests and cointegration tests have motivated a rich empirical literature on energy economics over the last decade this study reviews recent developments in time series econometrics applications in the energy economics literature we first consider the literature on the integration properties of energy variables we begin with a discussion of the implications of whether energy variables contain a unit root and proceed to examine how results differ according to the specific unit root or stationarity test employed we then proceed to examine recent developments in the literature on cointegration granger causality and long run estimates between disaggregated energy consumption and economic growth we review both single country and panel studies and pay particular attention to studies which have expanded the literature through adding variables such as financial development and trade in addition to energy consumption to the augmented production function as well as studies which have extended the literature through examining disaggregated energy consumption by type in each case we highlight best practice in the literature point to limitations in the literature including econometric modeling challenges and suggest recommendations for future research a key message of our survey is that the profession needs to guard against overload of research in these areas as most applied studies are no longer adding anything more to what is already known

fiscal sustainability in a new keynesian model recent work on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in new keynesian models suggests that it is optimal to allow steady state debt to follow a random walk in this paper we consider the nature of the time inconsistency involved in such a policy and its implication for discretionary policymaking we show that governments are tempted given inflationary expectations to utilize their monetary and fiscal instruments in the initial period to change the ultimate debt burden they need to service we demonstrate that this temptation is only eliminated if following shocks the new steady state debt is equal to the original efficient debt level even though there is no explicit debt target in the government s objective function analytically and in a series of numerical simulations we show which instrument is used to stabilize the debt depends crucially on the degree of nominal inertia and the size of the debt stock we also show that the welfare consequences of introducing debt are negligible for precommitment policies but can be significant for discretionary policy finally we assess the credibility of commitment policy by considering a quasi commitment policy which allows for different probabilities of reneging on past promises

speed limit policies the output gap and optimal monetary policy in a standard new keynesian model a myopic central bank concerned with stabilizing inflation and changes in the output gap will implement a policy under discretion that replicates the optimal timeless perspective precommitment policy by stabilizing output gap changes the central bank imparts inertia into output and inflation that is absent under pure discretion even a fully optimizing i e non myopic central bank operating in a discretionary policy environment achieves better social outcomes if it focuses on inflation and changes in the output gap than are achieved under inflation targeting this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

are fluctuations in electricity consumption per capita transitory evidence from developed and developing economies abstract this paper investigates the unit root properties of electricity consumption per capita of 67 developed and developing countries for the period 1971 2010 to examine the stationary properties of electricity consumption per capita we have adopted lee and strazicich 2003 2004 test of unit root that allows us to test for at most two endogenous breaks and uses the lagrange multiplier lm test statistics results show that 65 country series reject the unit root null hypothesis except for 2 country series thus our empirical findings provide significant evidence that electricity consumption per capita is stationary in almost all countries considered the stationarity of electricity consumption per capita indicates that it should be possible for the series to forecast future movements in the energy consumption based on the past behaviors of the series

why conditional aid does not work and what can be done about it abstract this paper studies a simple reform that introduces ex post incentives for the donor to reward good policies contrary to existing practices instead of committing aid to each recipient ex ante and making aid conditional on reform the donor centralizes the disbursement decision by committing aid to a group of countries the actual amount disbursed to each individual country would depend on its relative performance this explicit linkage of the allocation and disbursement decisions has two important advantages as compared to present practices first it raises the opportunity cost of disbursing aid ex post thereby giving the donor stronger incentives to reward good policies second competition among recipients allows the donor to make inferences about common shocks which otherwise conceal the recipient s choice of action this enables the donor to give aid more efficiently

is energy consumption per capita broken stationary new evidence from regional based panels abstract for the first time a new panel unit root testing procedure developed by 51 carrion i silvestre et al 2005 breaking the panels an application to gdp per capita econometrics journal 8 159 175 is applied to re investigate the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for 7 regional panel sets covering the 1971 2002 period with structural breaks and cross sectional correlations introduced into the model it becomes clear that all regional based panels of energy consumption per capita are stationary the structural breakpoints identify the likely causes of major changes in energy consumption in the past the findings underscore the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks to a series and offer several important implications for policy makers and energy economists

will policies to promote renewable electricity generation be effective evidence from panel stationarity and unit root tests for 115 countries abstract this study examines whether policies to promote renewable electricity generation are likely to be effective by applying panel unit root and stationarity tests to time series data on renewable electricity generation for 115 countries over the period 1980 2008 we find that for the panel as a whole and almost three quarters of the individual countries renewable electricity generation is characterized by a unit root this result implies that policies to promote renewable electricity generation such as renewable portfolio standards which result in annual increases in renewable energy and as such which represent permanent positive shocks to the long run growth path of renewable electricity generation will be more effective in increasing renewable electricity generation than policies with a pre specified time horizon

long run growth and welfare effects of public policies with distortionary taxation abstract in a one sector growth model with infrastructure investment we study the impact of fiscal policies on growth the government collects taxes on labor income and profits the government uses these revenues to purchase infrastructure investment provide utility enhancing government services and to provide transfer payments to the households we show that the balanced growth rate is an increasing function of the percent of government revenues that goes to infrastructure we find that the growth maximizing mix of taxes depends on the elasticity of substitution between inputs in particular with distortionary taxes the growth maximizing tax rate on capital is higher the lower the elasticity of substitution between private physical capital and public capital in addition the growth maximizing size of the government is higher when the elasticity of substitution between public and private inputs is low we also investigate welfare effects of other public expenditures as well depending on the elasticity of substitution in production the welfare implications of different public policies can be substantial

optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules welfare maximizing monetary and fiscal policy rules are studied in a model with sticky prices money and distortionary taxation the ramsey optimal policy is used as a point of comparison the main findings are the size of the inflation coefficient in the interest rate rule plays a minor role for welfare it matters only insofar as it affects the determinacy of equilibrium optimal monetary policy features a muted response to output interest rate rules that feature a positive response to output can lead to significant welfare losses the welfare gains from interest rate smoothing are negligible optimal fiscal policy is passive the optimal monetary and fiscal rule combination attains virtually the same level of welfare as the ramsey optimal policy

automatic stabilizers fiscal rules and macroeconomic stability abstract this paper analyzes the effect of the fiscal structure upon the trade off between inflation and output stabilization induced by technological shocks in a dge model with nominal and real rigidities that also integrates a rich menu of fiscal variables as well as a target on the debt to output ratio the channels through which fiscal policy affects macroeconomic stability include supply side effects of distortionary taxes the procyclical behavior of public spending induced by fiscal rules and the conventional effect of automatic stabilizers operating through disposable permanent income the paper investigates these channels and concludes that contrary to what has been found in rbc models distortionary taxes tend to reduce output volatility relative to lump sum taxes when significant rigidities are present we also study the stabilization effect of alternative distortionary tax structures and find that these are only relevant if substantial rigidities are present

monetary policy rules for an open economy the most popular simple rule for the interest rate due to taylor 1993a is meant to inform monetary policy in economies that are closed on the other hand its main open economy alternative i e ball s 1999 rule based on a monetary conditions index mci may perform poorly in the face of specific types of exchange rate shocks and thus cannot offer guidance for the day to day conduct of monetary policy in this paper we specify and evaluate a comprehensive set of simple monetary policy rules that are suitable for small open economies in general and for the united kingdom in particular we do so by examining the performance of a battery of simple rules including the familiar taylor rule and mci based rules a la ball this entails comparing the asymptotic properties of a two sector open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated on united kingdom data under different rules we find that an inflation forecast based rule ifb i e a rule that reacts to deviations of expected inflation from target is a good simple rule in this respect when the horizon is adequately chosen adding a separate response to the level of the real exchange rate contemporaneous and lagged appears to reduce the difference in adjustment between output gaps in the two sectors of the economy but the improvement is only marginal importantly an ifb rule with or without exchange rate adjustment appears robust to different shocks in contrast to naive or ball s mci based rules

a re examination of stationarity of energy consumption evidence from new unit root tests abstract in this paper we re examine the stochastic behaviour of per capita total primary energy consumption across 178 countries around the world for this purpose in addition to conventional unit root tests we apply newly developed tests that allow for nonlinear adjustments and structural breaks in the data generating process the results of the unit root tests show that allowing for structural breaks and nonlinearity result in more frequent rejection of the null hypothesis of unit root suggesting that most of the series under consideration follow a stationary process these findings imply that both energy economists and policy makers must be careful and take account of possible nonlinearities and structural breaks in their analyses of energy consumption in addition the results imply that government interventions into the energy markets in most countries have no effect in the long run although the short run effects of the interventions depend on the size and the direction of interventions

the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the asean countries abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among the association of south east asian nations asean 4 members namely indonesia malaysia singapore and thailand using modern time series techniques for the period 1971 2002 the results indicate that there is a bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia and singapore this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in the two countries however uni directional causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption in indonesia and thailand without any feedback effect thus electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects in the two countries

company interests and foreign aid policy playing donors off against one another abstract the evidence on conditionality indicates that this instrument sometimes works and sometimes does not work we suggest that third parties to the donor recipient relationship influence the aid disbursement the halt in aid that should follow non compliance could trigger the recipient to cancel contracts with companies from donor countries which creates incentives for the companies to put pressure towards aid disbursement we use a multi agent triadic model of the relationships between a recipient and two donors and two companies to illustrate that recipients may act strategically to make third parties like companies and others influence the disbursement decision failing to take account of third parties role yields the opposite result conditionality becomes successful

energy consumption and economic activities in iran abstract the causal relationship between overall gdp industrial and agricultural value added and consumption of different kinds of energy are investigated using vector error correction model for the case of iran within 1967 2003 a long run unidirectional relationship from gdp to total energy and bidirectional relationship between gdp and gas as well as gdp and petroleum products consumption for the whole economy was discovered causality is running from value added to total energy electricity gas and petroleum products consumption and from gas consumption to value added in industrial sector the long run bidirectional relations hold between value added and total energy electricity and petroleum products consumption in the agricultural sector the short run causality runs from gdp to total energy and petroleum products consumption and also industrial value added to total energy and petroleum products consumption in this sector

long memory in us disaggregated petroleum consumption evidence from univariate and multivariate lm tests for fractional integration previous studies that have tested for a unit root in aggregate energy consumption have potentially reached misleading conclusions because they fail to allow for the possibility that energy consumption might be fractionally integrated and do not distinguish between different types of energy consumption this study tests for long memory in disaggregated petroleum consumption in the united states using univariate and multivariate lagrange multiplier lm tests for fractional integration the results point strongly to the need to distinguish between different forms of energy consumption and allow for a generalization of the i 0 i 1 dichotomy when considering the order of integration of energy consumption allowing for short run dynamics the univariate test suggests that less than 50 of the series are fractionally integrated consistent with expectations the non stationary series are found to have the highest mean and standard deviation the multivariate test suggests that petroleum consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors is clearly fractionally integrated when allowing for short run dynamics and as such exhibits persistent effects while petroleum consumption in the residential sector is a stationary process

testing for convergence in electricity consumption across croatian regions at the consumer s sectoral level abstract using the panel unit tests with and without structural break s the convergence hypothesis in relative per capita electricity consumption series is tested across croatian regions during the period 2001 2013 the results are mixed depending primarily on the consumption sector considered and the test applied they indicate the necessity to conduct analysis and formulate energy policy measures on the sector disaggregated and regional specific electricity consumption time series the croatian electricity markets are not fully integrated and some regions are faced with statistically significant structural break s demonstrating thereby the croatian gradual energy reform process with several sudden innovations significant regional differences and the market dependence on expectations domestic and international economic and non economic innovations the impacts of innovations are likely to be permanent for most of the regions and their electricity consumption behaviours are likely to be path dependent consequently innovations into the energy markets including government interventions may have long run effects indicating that space and time for experimenting with alternative mechanisms are quite limited

are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary evidence from 182 countries this article applies univariate and panel data unit root tests to annual panel data for 182 countries over the period 1979 2000 to examine the stationarity properties of per capita energy consumption the univariate unit root test can only reject the unit root null for 56 countries or 31 of the sample at the 10 level or better however univariate unit root tests have low power with short spans of data and therefore failure to reject the unit root null should be treated with caution when we apply the panel data unit root test we find overwhelming evidence that energy consumption is stationary we discuss the policy implications of these findings and offer suggestions for future research

energy consumption and gdp revisited a panel analysis of developed and developing countries this paper applies a new panel data stationarity testing procedure first developed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 econometrics journal 8 159 175 with panel vars that employ the generalized method of moment techniques in order to re investigate the dynamic interactions between energy consumption per capita lec and real gdp per capita lry in 22 developed and 18 developing countries when multiple breaks in the series are taken into account there is convincing evidence of panel stationarity for lec and lry in both groups the energy crises evidently had a substantive impact on both lec and lry in all sample countries furthermore our panel vars attest to bidirectional causality between lec and lry in developed countries but there is uni directional causality from lry to lec in developing countries finally from the orthogonalized impulse response functions all of the variables in the panel vars have a positive effect on each other but their impact is greater and more persistent in developing countries some important policy implications do emerge

fiscal policy with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets i undertake a quantitative investigation into the short run effects of changes in the timing of proportional income taxes for model economies in which heterogeneous households face a borrowing constraint temporary tax changes are found to have large real effects in the benchmark model a temporary tax cut increases aggregate consumption on impact by around 29 cents for every dollar of tax revenue lost comparing the benchmark incomplete markets model to a complete markets economy income tax cuts provide a larger boost to consumption and a smaller investment stimulus when asset markets are incomplete copyright 2005 wiley blackwell

are shocks to natural gas consumption temporary or permanent evidence from a panel of u s states abstract this short communication examines whether or not u s natural gas consumption follows a stationary process unlike previous research that has focused on regional country or industrial sector based panel studies this study undertakes a sub national investigation of natural gas consumption for the 50 u s states levin et al 2002 im et al 2003 maddala and wu 1999 and hadri 2000 panel unit root and stationarity tests reveal that natural gas consumption is integrated of order one however once allowance is made for endogenously determined structural breaks the carrion i silvestre et al 2005 im et al 2005 and westerlund 2005 panel unit root and stationarity tests indicate that natural gas consumption is integrated of order zero discussion of the structural breaks is briefly surveyed in relation to the natural gas industry s response to legislative actions

are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory evidence from a panel of pacific island countries this study applies the panel stationarity test developed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 breaking the panels an application to gdp per capita econometrics journal 8 159 175 to examine the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for a panel of 13 pacific island countries over the period 1980 2005 this test has the advantage that it allows for multiple structural breaks at unknown dates that can differ across countries and can account for all forms of cross sectional correlation between countries the conclusion from the study is that energy consumption per capita in approximately 60 of countries is stationary and that energy consumption per capita for the panel as a whole is stationary the study offers several suggestions for modelling energy consumption and policy making in the pacific islands

structural breaks energy consumption and economic growth revisited evidence from taiwan abstract this paper studies the stability between energy consumption and gdp for taiwan during 1954 2003 we use aggregate as well as various disaggregate data of energy consumption including coal oil gas and electricity to employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks our main findings are first though gas consumption seems to have structural breaks in the 1960s after considering the structural breaks the series is a stationary variable when taiwan adopted its expansionary export trade policy second we find that different directions of causality exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption the empirical result shows unanimously in the long run that energy acts as an engine of economic growth and that energy conservation may harm economic growth third the cointegration between energy consumption and gdp is unstable and some economic events may affect the stability overall we do find the structural breakpoints and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic incidents

fourier quantile unit root test for the integrational properties of clean energy consumption in emerging economies abstract since the adoption of the kyoto protocol in 1997 and its entry into force in 2005 as well its aftermath such as the doha amendment and paris agreement national policies have become more conscious of the usage of clean energy mostly the different forms of renewable energy and nuclear energy ratifying countries and signatories had committed themselves to binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse emissions by 8 with respect to 1990 levels until 2012 also based on the particular contribution to global emissions from each country this paper examines the integrational properties of clean energy consumption from eight emerging economies which are also high greenhouse gas emitters the empirical results show that the clean energy consumption is stationarity for brazil and philippines by using a quantile unit root test without smooth breaks koenker and xiao 2004 however after capturing the smooth breaks bahmani oskooee et al 2018 we find the clean energy consumption of china pakistan and thailand are stationary the time varying deterministic trend with smooth breaks is more fitted to the path of clean energy consumption in comparison to the deterministic trend without smooth breaks the paper suggests economic insights useful for policy making

aid investment and incentives promoting productive investment and economic growth are among the key objectives of most aid organizations operating in poor countries however it is not possible to conclude from existing empirical evidence that aid contributes positively to growth in this paper it is shown that those rather negative results may be explained by important incentive problems built into the aid system itself the recipient countries own efforts to contribute to investment and growth may in reality be undermined and the result may be aid dependency

structural break unit root and the causality between energy consumption and gdp in turkey abstract this paper tries to investigate a series of unit root and causality tests to detect causality between the gdp and energy consumption in turkey employing hsiao s version of granger causality method for the 1950 2000 period the conventional unit root tests indicate the series are i 1 whereas the endogenous break unit root tests proposed by zivot and andrews zivot e and andrews d w k 1992 further evidence on the great crash the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis journal of business and economics statistics 10 251 270 and perron perron p 1997 further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables journal of econometrics 80 355 385 reveal that the series are trend stationary with a structural break therefore it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the data to achieve stationarity the main conclusion of this study is that there is no evidence of causality between energy consumption and gdp in turkey based on the detrended data

the purchasing power parity debate originally propounded by the 16th century scholars of the university of salamanca the concept of purchasing power parity ppp was revived in the interwar period in the context of the debate concerning the appropriate level at which to re establish international exchange rate parities broadly accepted as a long run equilibrium condition in the post war period it first was advocated as a short run equilibrium by many international economists in the first few years following the breakdown of the bretton woods system in the early 1970s and then increasingly came under attack on both theoretical and empirical grounds from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s accordingly over the last three decades a large literature has built up that examines how much the data deviated from theory and the fruits of this research have provided a deeper understanding of how well ppp applies in both the short run and the long run since the mid 1990s larger datasets and nonlinear econometric methods in particular have improved estimation as deviations narrowed between real exchange rates and ppp so did the gap narrow between theory and data and some degree of confidence in long run ppp began to emerge again in this respect the idea of long run ppp now enjoys perhaps its strongest support in more than 30 years a distinct reversion in economic thought

the relationship between energy consumption energy prices and economic growth time series evidence from asian developing countries this paper estimates the causal relationships between energy consumption and income for india indonesia the philippines and thailand using cointegration and error correction modelling techniques the results indicate that in the short run unidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for india and indonesia while bidirectional granger causality runs from energy to income for thailand and the philippines in the case of thailand and the philippines energy income and prices are mutually causal the study results do not support the view that energy and income are neutral with respect to each other with the exception of indonesia and india where neutrality is observed in the short run c 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classifications c22 q43 q48

estimating temperature effects on the italian electricity market abstract this paper provides empirical evidence of the effects that weather conditions exert on the electricity market offering a new contribution to the understanding of hourly regional price formation in the day ahead market in italy the empirical estimation uses a new data set of hourly data on both market variables and temperature variables there is a vast body of literature on the effect of temperature on final consumers and on wholesale electricity market equilibrium however the influence of temperature on the behavior of the wholesale electricity market has not been studied at the hourly level a new econometric estimation shows some evidence of different effects of temperature and provides a more accurate estimation of the hourly prices forecasting out of sample performance of the model is satisfactory the present results have welfare improving policy implications because appropriate policy strategies can help public decision makers promote regulation such as issuing public weather alert and designing contingent plans to face extreme weather conditions which improves production efficiency network management and consumer saving behavior taking specific weather conditions into account

unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices in this article we examine whether wti and brent crude oil spot and futures prices at 1 3 and 6 months to maturity contain a unit root with one and two structural breaks employing weekly data over the period 1991 2004 to realise this objective we employ lagrange multiplier lm unit root tests with one and two endogenous structural breaks proposed by lee and strazicich 2003 minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks review of economics and statistics 85 1082 1089 2004 minimum lm unit root test with one structural break working paper no 04 17 department of economics appalachian state university we find that each of the oil price series can be characterised as a random walk process and that the endogenous structural breaks are significant and meaningful in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets

energy consumption and gdp in turkey is there a co integration relationship energy consumption and gdp are expected to grow by 5 9 and 7 annually until 2025 in turkey this paper tries to unfold the linkage between energy consumption and gdp by undertaking a co integration analysis for turkey with annual data over the period 1970 2003 the analysis shows that energy consumption and gdp are co integrated this means that there is a possibly bi directional causality relationship between the two we establish that there is a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption indicating that energy saving would not harm economic growth in turkey in addition we find that energy consumption keeps on growing as long as the economy grows in turkey

will disruptions in opec oil supply have permanent impact on the global oil market abstract opec has long been a major stakeholder and strong player in the global energy market especially in the petroleum sub sector in recent time however there have been questions over the influence of opec in the sub sector due to changing petroleum production landscape specifically as a result of the discovery of unconventional energy resources in north america and emergence of non opec petroleum producing and exporting countries this development could have significant effect on the global energy market and the macro economy of opec member countries the stationarity or otherwise of opec oil production supply has important implications for determining whether fluctuations in opec market supply has temporary or permanent effect using the zivot andrews structural break stationarity test and production data of opec member countries from 1980 to 2011 this paper investigates whether fluctuations in opec market supply has temporary or permanent effect the empirical analysis shows that for only 5 opec members nigeria saudi arabia ecuador kuwait and uae is the hypothesis of unit root rejected this implies that for the five 5 opec members the effects of shocks to oil production are not permanent and future pattern of oil production can be predicted following past trend the practical implication of this finding is that opec production quota strategy may not have long term impact on the global oil market thus the cartel needs to improve oil production policy coordination among members and ensure strict adherence to production quota while also stressing the need for diversification in member countries

will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective evidence from univariate and panel lm unit root tests with structural breaks abstract this paper examines whether initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption are likely to be effective by applying univariate and panel lagrange multiplier lm unit root tests to hydroelectricity consumption in 55 countries over the period 1965 2011 we find that for the panel as well as about four fifths of individual countries that hydroelectricity consumption is stationary this result implies that shocks to hydroelectricity consumption in most countries will only result in temporary deviations from the long run growth path an important consequence of this finding is that initiatives designed to have permanent positive effects on hydroelectricity consumption such as large scale dam construction are unlikely to be effective in increasing the share of hydroelectricity relative to consumption of fossil fuels

to react or not technology shocks fiscal policy and welfare in the eu 3 this paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model to examine the quantitative macroeconomic implications of counter cyclical fiscal policy for france germany and the uk the model incorporates real wage rigidity and consumption habits as the particular market failures justifying policy intervention we subject the model to productivity shocks and allow policy instruments to react to the output gap and the debt to output ratio a welfare analysis reveals that the most effective instrument target combination is to use public consumption to stabilize the output gap moreover welfare gains from counter cyclical fiscal policy are much stronger in the presence of wage rigidities compared with consumption habits finally since active policy and automatic stabilizers are substitutes it is possible that relatively undistorted economies may be in need of countercyclical fiscal action due to inadequate automatic stabilizers

structural breaks and petroleum consumption in us states are shocks transitory or permanent abstract this short communication extends the literature on the stationarity of energy consumption to the case of us petroleum consumption at the state level from 1960 to 2007 the results of lee and strazicich 2003 and narayan and popp forthcoming unit root tests with endogenously determined structural breaks in the intercept and slope of the trend function reveal break dates that correspond to the two opec oil shocks of the 1970s along with the double dip recession of 1980 1982 the null hypothesis of a unit root in petroleum consumption is rejected for a majority of states these results highlight the importance of recognizing the heterogeneity in the behavior of petroleum consumption across states in the formulation of energy conservation and demand management policies