minimum variance hedging of bitcoin inverse futures we formulate an optimal hedging problem of bitcoin inverse futures under the minimum variance framework we obtain the optimal hedging strategy in closed forms for both short and long hedges and co

is bitcoin really untethered this paper investigates whether tether a digital currency pegged to the u s dollar influenced bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices during the 2017 boom using algorithms to analyze blockchain data we find that purchases with tether are timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in bitcoin prices the flow is attributable to one entity clusters below round prices induces asymmetric autocorrelations in bitcoin and suggests insufficient tether reserves before month ends rather than demand from cash investors these patterns are most consistent with the supply based hypothesis of unbacked digital money inflating cryptocurrency prices

how reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies according to the long term scenarios of the international energy agency iea and the u s energy information administration eia conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 20

oil supply risk and affecting parameters associated with oil supplementation and disruption abstract the fossil fuel energy carriers significantly affect the energy security the oil security has turned to one of the main political agenda by considering the two world s oil crises in this study an index of oil supply vulnerability has been developed to compare the world s top fifteen oil importing south asian countries the index includes comprehensive set of indicators like imported oil over gdp ratio market liquidity gdp per capita geopolitical risk diversification the ratio of oil importation over consumption transportation risk oil price volatility and us volatility two popular techniques composite indicator ci and the principal component analysis pca were used to combine all the aforesaid indicators although numerous techniques have been used to assess the oil vulnerability index for example dea like models and markowitz theory of portfolio none of them incorporated the principal component analysis and composite indicator together to develop an oil vulnerability index results shows that the south asian countries have highest economic supply and overall oil vulnerability risk whereas the second group countries belgium thailand spain netherlands japan korea india and china are in a relatively less risky as compared to south asian countries contrary to this third group of countries are canada singapore uk and france italy germany and us are considered as a least vulnerable country

oil vulnerability index of oil importing countries abstract this paper assesses the relative oil vulnerability of 26 net oil importing countries for the year 2004 on the basis of various indicators the ratio of value of oil imports to gross domestic product gdp oil consumption per unit of gdp gdp per capita and oil share in total energy supply ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption exposure to geopolitical oil market concentration risks as measured by net oil import dependence diversification of supply sources political risk in oil supplying countries and market liquidity the approach using the principal component technique has been adopted to combine these individual indicators into a composite index of oil vulnerability such an index captures the relative sensitivity of various economies towards developments of the international oil market with a higher index indicating higher vulnerability the results show that there are considerable differences in the values of individual indicators of oil vulnerability and overall oil vulnerability index among the countries both inter and intraregional

booms busts and heavy tails the story of bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets abstract we develop bespoke rational bubble models for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies that incorporate both heavy tails and the probability of a complete collapse in asset prices empirically we present robustified evidence of bubbles in bitcoin and ethereum theoretically we show that liquidity risks may generate heavy tails in bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets even in the absence of bubbles dramatic booms and busts can occur we thus sound a timely note of caution

a comparison of oil supply risks in eu us japan china and india under different climate scenarios for many countries the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves in this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the european union united states china japan and india being the five largest importers of oil in the world based on their current supplier portfolio scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil supply projections it is found that risks increase strongly when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account resulting in major oil supply disruptions china faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of india china and us converge over time due to increasing import dependency of china and india japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification for the eu all figures are strongly influenced by russia accounting for 32 of total imports and to a lesser extent norway 11 with high overall risks

the impact of tether grants on bitcoin abstract in recent years tether issuances or grants have increased significantly which correlated broadly with a significant rise in bitcoin valuation this paper examines the impact of cryptocurrency issuances on subsequent cryptocurrency returns it is argued that as tether is the undisputed stable coin the minting of new tether acts similarly to monetary expansion in cryptocurrency markets inflating the prices of bitcoin we construct a var model and show contrary to investor expectations tether issuances do not impact subsequent bitcoin returns however they do impact traded volumes we also document an increase in tether trading following a subsequent decrease in bitcoin returns

energy security analysis the case of constrained oil supply for ireland abstract ireland imports 88 of its energy requirements oil makes up 59 of total final energy consumption tfc import dependency low fuel diversity and volatile prices leave ireland vulnerable in terms of energy security this work models energy security scenarios for ireland using long term macroeconomic forecasts to 2050 with oil production and price scenarios from the international monetary fund within the irish times energy systems model the analysis focuses on developing a least cost optimum energy system for ireland under scenarios of constrained oil supply 0 8 annual import growth and 2 annual import decline and subsequent sustained long term price shocks to oil and gas imports the results point to gas becoming the dominant fuel source for ireland at 54 total final energy consumption in 2020 supplanting oil from reference projections of 57 to 10 8 tfc in 2012 the cost of net oil imports stood at 3 6 billion 2 26 gdp the modelled high oil and gas price scenarios show an additional annual cost in comparison to a reference of between 2 9bn and 7 5bn by 2020 1 9 4 9 of gdp to choose to develop a least cost energy system investment and ramifications for energy security are discussed

on the value of virtual currencies nous construisons un modele d analyse pour cerner les facteurs qui influent sur le taux de change des monnaies virtuelles trois elements importent tout d abord l utilisation actuelle d une monnaie virtuelle comme moyen de paiement ensuite la decision d investisseurs prospectifs d acheter de la monnaie virtuelle et de controler ainsi l offre de ce type de monnaie enfin les facteurs qui determineront ensemble l adoption d une monnaie virtuelle par les consommateurs et son acceptation par les commercants

return and volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies abstract this paper measures interdependencies among 18 major cryptocurrencies and shows that i bitcoin is the dominant contributor of return and volatility spillovers among all the sampled cryptocurrencies ii return and volatility spillovers have risen steadily over time iii there are spikes in spillovers during major news events regarding cryptocurrencies these findings suggest growing interdependence among cryptocurrencies and by extension a higher degree of contagion risk it may be the case that cryptocurrencies are becoming more integrated albeit this makes for interesting future empirical testing in addition the time varying nature of spillovers reveals a certain dimension of uncertainty regarding the future of these digital currencies

global oil gas depletion an overview abstract the world s production of conventional hydrocarbons will soon decline hydrocarbon shortages are inevitable unless radical changes occur in demand or in the supply of non conventional hydrocarbons the details are as follows global conventional oil supply is currently at political risk this is because the sum of conventional oil production from all countries in the world except the five main middle east suppliers is near the maximum set by physical resource limits should middle east suppliers decide to substantially curtail supply the shortfall cannot be replaced by conventional oil from other sources world conventional oil supply will soon be at physical risk the middle east countries have only little spare operational capacity and this will be increasingly called upon as oil production declines elsewhere large investments in middle east production if they occur could raise output but only to a limited extent a partial exception is iraq but even here there would be significant delays before prospects are confirmed and infrastructure is in place if demand is maintained and if large investments in middle east capacity are not made the world will face the prospect of oil shortages in the near term even with large investments resource limits will force middle east production to decline fairly soon and hence also global conventional oil production the date of this resource limited global peak depends on the size of middle east reserves which are poorly known and unreliably reported best estimates put the physical peak of global conventional oil production between 5 and 10 years from now the world contains large quantities of non conventional oil and various oil substitutes but the rapidity of the decline in the production of conventional oil makes it probable that these non conventional sources cannot come on stream fast enough to fully compensate the result will be a sustained global oil shortage for conventional gas the world s original endowment is probably about the same in energy terms as its endowment of conventional oil since less gas has been used so far compared to oil the world will turn increasingly to gas as oil declines but the global peak in conventional gas production is already in sight in perhaps 20 years and hence the global peak of all hydrocarbons oil plus gas is likely to be in about 10 or so years

analysis of oil export dependency of mena countries drivers trends and prospects abstract the purpose of this paper is to analyse how oil export dependencies of middle east and north african mena oil producers have evolved over the past two decades and to identify the main driving factors from an energy policy perspective the paper expresses the oil export dependency of each economy in terms of a multiplicative identity that captures effective export price export to primary oil supply ratio oil dependency and oil export intensity of the country using the data for 1980 2006 the evolution in these factors is investigated for seven mena countries and the influence of the above factors is decomposed using the laspeyres index the analysis shows that energy price and increasing energy intensity in the mena countries have influenced the overall oil export dependency reducing the energy intensity can improve oil export revenue share to gdp by 5 10 in most of the countries while iran can gain significantly by increasing its export volume

a framework to evaluate security of supply in the electricity sector security of electricity supply soes has become a major concern for regulators and policymakers over the last decade however most work focusses either more generally on energy security or on a single fuel we develop a comprehensive but flexible framework to assess the soes for a single jurisdiction taking into the account the specificities of electricity this framework has two aims i provide a snapshot of the situation to understand current weaknesses and determine what actions are required ii capture the evolution over time to evaluate progress and identify potential problems before they materialise the framework based on an extensive literature review consists of twelve dimensions that are critical for soes we develop metrics that capture the state and evolution of each dimension this framework is intended to be a management information tool for all stakeholders aimed at organising data and structuring its analysis to enable monitoring the evolution of the soes while also functioning as an early warning system by flagging potential future problems

volatility and return jumps in bitcoin abstract in this article we are interested in understanding the dynamics of bitcoin daily returns and volatility cryptocurrencies have very high unconditional volatility and are subject to sudden massive price swings we start with a standard log normal stochastic volatility model then explore two formulations which incorporate discontinuous jumps to volatility and returns jumps to volatility are permanent while jumps to mean returns have contemporaneous effects only results point to two high volatility periods the first from late 2013 to early 2014 likely associated to the mt gox incident the second covers the year of 2017 peaking on december likely driven by increased popular attention jumps to mean returns are specially relevant to capture large price variations mostly negative associated with formative events in cryptocurrency markets such as hacks and unsuccessful fork attempts

energy supply security and geopolitics a european perspective the security of energy supply to the eu is examined in the context of two storylines markets and institutions exemplifies an economically and politically integrated multilateral world with effective institutions and markets regions and empires involves a world broken up in rival political and economic blocks competing for resources and markets via political economic and military power it is shown that these storylines have a significant impact on the development of the energy market on the way in which energy supply may be secured and on the effect and applicability of the several types of instruments available the current eu is geared towards enlargement and a deepening of economic integration based on the tenets of the post 1945 multilateral world system the present world tends towards regions and empires and suggests that the eu may have to reorient its energy security policy energy policy must become an integral part of eu external trade and foreign relations and security policy the eu should develop its own strategy actively investing in dialogues with producer countries in the persian gulf and africa and with russia sustainable prosperity and governance in these regions will support eu energy security

liquidity uncertainty and bitcoin s market microstructure abstract this paper provides a novel measure of liquidity uncertainty for bitcoin using bid ask spread data from bitfinex one of the largest and most liquid bitcoin exchanges this measure can be used to analyze liquidity developments in bitcoin exchanges or to gauge the immediacy associated with buying or selling bitcoin it then proceeds to identify what aspects of bitcoin s market microstructure can explain the time series behavior of this liquidity uncertainty the estimation results are based on a markov regime switching model that captures episodes of high and low liquidity uncertainty for bitcoin over the period from october 2013 to march 2018

energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices taiwan energy supply structure case study abstract facing the risk and uncertainty inherent in social and economic development many countries have adopted an energy supply diversification strategy in their energy security policy to control the energy import risk and cost to ensure that sufficient energy can be obtained at an affordable price level diversification helps the energy system respond to external changes and shocks diversification can also lessen the vulnerability of a single energy source to supply shocks and the market power of various energy supply sources this study develops the diversity reliability index and co vary diversity reliability index based on the hirschman herfindahl and shannon wiener indices investigates the contribution of different energy sources to the energy system and analyzes the covariance between various energies and their impacts on energy security to determine the impact of energy diversity in reducing the risk of energy supply shortages and cost fluctuations

a quantitative analysis of low carbon society lcs measures in thai industrial sector abstract energy is a commodity which impacts heavily upon the competitiveness of a country in the global scale thus nations have begun to understand that utilization of energy affects its economic performance in recent times there has been a drive for global awareness on low carbon society lcs measures where carbon mitigation is at the forefront thus this paper analyses the lcs measures for the thai industrial sector thai industrial sector is the second highest co 2 emitting end use sector and contributes approximately 30 to the national income of thailand the total co 2 emission from end use sectors in 2010 was 119 mton co 2 and approximately 38 constituted industrial sector emissions the primary objective of this research study is to quantitatively analyse the carbon mitigation possible in the thai industrial sector and the co benefits which accrue along with mitigation in various policy pathway scenarios thai industrial sector was modeled using asia pacific integrated model aim enduse three groups of scenarios under lcs emission tax and reduction target principles were modeled along with the bau case results show that lcs scenarios are capable of cumulative mitigation of approximately 35 by 2050 in comparison to the bau case and the predominant technologies are the 2nd generation biomass and the ccs technology the emission tax scenarios where tax rates of 50 100 200 and 500 usd t co 2 were enforced show a maximum of 55 cumulative mitigation by 2050 even though this reduction is higher than the lcs scenarios there is no shift to long term renewable or sustainable technologies in the emission tax scenarios the same applies to reduction target scenarios as well the co benefits which were measured along the themes of energy security and local air pollutant mitigation show maximum benefits accruing to the lcs scenarios where renewable fuel share increases whilst primary energy intensity and carbon intensity decreases the lcs scenarios also show a mitigation of local air pollutants such as so 2 and particulate matter

london and beyond taking a closer look at urban energy policy this paper considers the field of urban energy policy a neglected yet important topic cities account for approximately two thirds of global primary energy consumption creating significant benefits and costs as a result there has been growing interest in the contribution of cities to global energy policy issues such as climate change but a number of significant questions remain e g how do energy policy processes differ between national and urban scales and how can cities contribute most effectively to global policy goals we present the results of interviews with key stakeholders in london to illustrate some unique features of the urban energy policy cycle we then take a wider view proposing a research agenda with three key goals describing the global variety of urban energy consumption and policy understanding the resulting diversity in responsibility vulnerability and capacity and developing shared procedures and solutions tackling these questions is vital if cities are to contribute fully to current energy policy efforts

global oil depletion a review of the evidence within the polarised and contentious debate over future oil supply a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak and subsequent decline in production but although liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies the growing debate on peak oil has relatively little influence on energy and climate policy with this in mind the uk energy research centre ukerc has conducted an independent thorough and systematic review of the evidence with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus the study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in depth literature review analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison of global supply forecasts this communication summarises the main findings of the ukerc study a key conclusion is that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020

an alternative model of metcalfe s law for valuing bitcoin abstract this short paper presents a new model of the market capitalization of bitcoin that builds upon a standard model based upon metcalfe s law the model incorporates the logistic diffusion of the innovation which could be extended to capture population and economic factors this model appears to have some improved efficacy over the standard model using this model some areas for future research are briefly discussed

the economics of bitcoin price formation abstractthis is the first article that studies bitcoin price formation by considering both the traditional determinants of currency price e g market forces of supply and demand and digital currencies specific factors e g bitcoin attractiveness for investors and users the conceptual framework is based on the barro 1979 model from which we derive testable hypotheses using daily data for five years 2009 2015 and applying time series analytical mechanisms we find that market forces and bitcoin attractiveness for investors and users have a significant impact on bitcoin price but with variation over time our estimates do not support previous findings that macro financial developments are driving bitcoin price in the long run

gas generation and wind power a review of unlikely allies in the united kingdom and ireland no single solution currently exists to achieve the utopian desire of zero fossil fuel electricity generation until such time it is evident that the energy mix will contain a large variation in stochastic and intermittent sources of renewable energy such as wind power the increasing prominence of wind power in pursuit of legally binding european energy targets enables policy makers and conventional generating companies to plan for the unique challenges such a natural resource presents this drive for wind has been highly beneficial in terms of security of energy supply and reducing greenhouse gas emissions however it has created an unusual ally in natural gas this paper outlines the suitability and challenges faced by gas generating units in their utilisation as key assets for renewable energy integration and the transition to a low carbon future the single electricity market of the republic of ireland and northern ireland and the british electricity transmission trading agreement market are the backdrop to this analysis both of these energy markets have a reliance on gas generation matching the proliferation of wind power the unlikely and mostly ignored relationship between natural gas generation and wind power due to policy decisions and market forces is the necessity of gas to act as a bridging fuel this review finds gas generation to be crucially important to the continued growth of renewable energy additionally it is suggested that power market design should adequately reward the flexibility required to securely operate a power system with high penetrations of renewable energy which in most cases is provided by gas generation

quest for middle east oil the us versus the asia pacific region abstract two very powerful geopolitical factors will decisively determine whether the quest for middle east oil mainly gulf oil could enhance the global oil security or could lead to oil supply disruptions and also instability and conflict in the asia pacific region the two factors are the united states growing dependence on oil imports from the middle east and the asia pacific region s thirst for oil and the increasingly likely chinese dependence on oil from the region the asia pacific countries are increasingly growing concerned about their ability to supply enough oil to fuel future economic growth the region s phenomenal economic growth up to july 1997 and its economic recovery since then and its steadily rising energy needs lend urgency to the question of how the region would meet its considerable energy challenges this paper will endeavour to analyze the impact of this growing dependence on middle east oil on global oil supplies the price of oil and global oil security it will argue that such dependence on a volatile region like the middle east and the perception of scarcer energy resources in the asia pacific region have the potential to lead to conflict in both regions unless these issues are dealt with in geoeconomic rather than geostrategic terms the paper will strongly express the view that potential conflicts can be resolved not by force but through markets and investment and also through the diversification of energy sources and the promotion of alternative energy development and use across the region

future oil supply the changing stance of the international energy agency the iea was established in 1974 with a mandate to promote energy security amongst its members namely the states of the oecd and to advise those members on sound energy policy its recent forecasts of the medium and long term prospects for oil supply however have wavered alternating from optimistic to pessimistic and back again for policy makers such inconsistency is difficult to deal with firstly we examine whether the changing outlooks seen in iea forecasts made between 2007 and 2010 truly reflect a demonstrable underlying change in the known facts and we can find no such factual changes reported by the iea secondly we examine whether the serious criticisms of the iea s 2008 forecast made by other analysts have yet been addressed and we conclude that they have not thirdly we consider the possible effects of the current economic downturn upon the iea s assumptions and upon future oil supply we conclude that all the forecasts made by the iea appear to be too optimistic throughout this period

conceptual proposals for measuring the impact of international regimes on energy security abstract the paper proposes two concepts to assess the effect of international regimes on energy security existing indicators focus mainly on state level factors excluding international influences international relation scholars on the other hand see a clear connection between international regimes and stable energy relations international regimes stabilise energy relations by providing frameworks for negotiations defining controlling and sanctioning compliance and allowing the actors to engage in package deals the researcher needs to include these factors in a complete assessment of political energy security risks as first step the paper uses the effectiveness of control mechanisms as basis for such consideration it refers specifically to international arbitration as the most important control mechanism in international energy relations the simplest measurement option is the share of a county s energy imports covered by a certain regime the paper applies the oslo potsdam solution to account for outcome effectiveness it applies a variant of the international regimes data base protocol to account for effective regime structures in a last section the paper proposes some possible paths for future research

oil futures a comparison of global supply forecasts this paper compares and evaluates fourteen contemporary forecasts of global supply of conventional oil and provides some observations on their relative plausibility despite the wide range of modelling approaches used and multiplicity of assumptions made it is shown that forecasts can be usefully compared along two dimensions namely shape of future production profile and assumed or implied ultimately recoverable resource of conventional oil other differences between forecasts are either secondary or are components of these two parameters the paper shows how large differences in the assumed size of the resource make relatively little difference to the timing of a global peak in conventional oil production it also examines the impact of rates of discovery reserves growth and depletion on the forecast date of peak and shows how forecasts that delay this peak until beyond 2030 rest on assumptions that are at best optimistic and at worst implausible

indicators for energy security the concept of energy security is widely used yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation in this research we have provided an overview of available indicators for long term security of supply sos we distinguished four dimensions of energy security that relate to the availability accessibility affordability and acceptability of energy and classified indicators for energy security according to this taxonomy there is no one ideal indicator as the notion of energy security is highly context dependent rather applying multiple indicators leads to a broader understanding incorporating these indicators in model based scenario analysis showed accelerated depletion of currently known fossil resources due to increasing global demand coupled with increasing spatial discrepancy between consumption and production international trade in energy carriers is projected to have increased by 142 in 2050 compared to 2008 oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a few countries up to 2030 after which production from other regions diversifies the market under stringent climate policies this diversification may not occur due to reduced demand for oil possible benefits of climate policy include increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources

price manipulation in the bitcoin ecosystem abstract to its proponents the cryptocurrency bitcoin offers the potential to disrupt payment systems and traditional currencies it has also been subject to security breaches and wild price fluctuations this paper identifies and analyzes the impact of suspicious trading activity on the mt gox bitcoin currency exchange in which approximately 600 000 bitcoins btc valued at 188 million were fraudulently acquired during both periods the usd btc exchange rate rose by an average of four percent on days when suspicious trades took place compared to a slight decline on days without suspicious activity based on rigorous analysis with extensive robustness checks the paper demonstrates that the suspicious trading activity likely caused the unprecedented spike in the usd btc exchange rate in late 2013 when the rate jumped from around 150 to more than 1 000 in two months

protecting eden markets or government abstract the majority of species classified as threatened endangered or vulnerable by the iucn are to be found in government controlled parks and legally protected areas in developing countries dissatisfaction with the public sector s record in protecting endangered species has prompted calls for the use of market based instruments and other economic incentives to promote more effective environmental outcomes in this paper we examine whether greater reliance on market based incentives would result in improved environmental outcomes in national parks we address this issue by extending the literature on optimal contracts to the case of a renewable resource we identify conditions under which private ownership or control of a national park induces more less efficient management of protected areas the paper concludes with a discussion of the limitations of the analysis and the implications of these results for the conservation of biodiversity

combining ecological and recreational aspects in national park management a choice experiment application increasing pressure to diversify development of national parks emphasizes the need for new and relevant information for park management decisions in this paper we use choice experiment to value different tradeoffs that evolved in park development scenarios specifically we examine which kind of development profiles are worth considering and which paths not to follow we focus on biodiversity and recreational services provided by oulanka national park in finland which represents a popular recreation site attracting a large number of visitors the increase of biodiversity was the most highly valued feature by the respondent national park visitors thus our results show that the protection of biodiversity and recreational and tourism use of national parks can cause conflicting welfare effects if managed in inappropriate ways increasing the number of visitors expanding present resting places constructing new resting places and an intense increase in information boards especially if combined with shrinking biodiversity are welfare reducing managerial actions in national parks

oil supply and oil politics deja vu all over again president bush has identified us dependence on imported oil as an urgent energy economic and national security concern the president s energy plan promotes the development of domestic resources based on the assumption that economic incentives and the opening of frontier areas for exploration will increase domestic production if realized this will reduce dependence on imported oil and reduce opec s ability to affect aggregate oil supply and price the evidence suggests however that this policy will not increase significantly us production of crude oil will not reduce significantly opec s influence and it will distort the us macroeconomy even if allowed production from the arctic national wildlife refuge will have a negligible impact on the world oil markets further subsidies to the oil industry will divert resources from other more productive investments conservation and energy efficiency merit greater emphasis in us energy policy given their ability to reduce the use of cost effective and environmentally beneficial ways

long term diversification paths and energy transitions in europe the concentration of the energy mixes of eight european countries is measured latecomers historically enjoyed lower levels of concentration in their energy mixes early comers followed an inverted u path of concentration latecomers a u path a time effect and size effect explains the different patterns small energy consuming countries will be able to do faster transitions

conceptualizing energy security abstract energy security 1 is one of the main targets of energy policy however the term has not been clearly defined which makes it hard to measure and difficult to balance against other policy objectives we review the multitude of definitions of energy security they can be characterized according to the sources of risk the scope of the impacts and the severity filters in the form of the speed size sustention spread singularity and sureness of impacts using a stylized case study for three european countries we illustrate how the selection of conceptual boundaries along these dimensions determines the outcome this can be avoided by more clearly separating between security of supply and other policy objectives this leads us to the definition of energy security as the continuity of energy supplies relative to demand

the good the bad and the contradictory neoliberal conservation governance in rural southeast asia summary the logic of the market economy increasingly informs the design and the outcomes of conservation in the developing world this paper uses case studies from thailand and the philippines to investigate this changing conservation landscape and argues first that such conservation governance does not abandon but rather rearticulates forms of coercive conservation and second that the particular manifestations of neoliberal conservation are shaped by the national policies local histories and livelihoods of recipient communities the conclusion asserts that market based conservation governance may constrain as well as support farmer freedom to pursue particular livelihoods resulting in contradictory outcomes for neoliberal conservation governance 2010 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

assessing the determinants of sids pattern toward sustainability a statistical analysis abstract the aim of this paper is twofold first we assess the sids pattern towards energy sustainability second we try to understand the macro factors that drive policy makers in setting the optimal framework for investments in renewable energy sources the empirical analysis is performed on a large dataset of 136 countries and 41 variables observed in the time span 2000 2011 countries analyzed include a sample of 12 sids bahrain cuba dominican republic fiji islands guyana haiti jamaica maldives mauritius papua new guinea singapore trinidad and tobago distributed worldwide due to the large number of variables collected and their high degree of collinearity the first step of the analysis concerns the implementation of a principal component analysis in order to extract factors explaining the majority of variation of the original variables in the second step three different scenarios of modeling are designed to examine the key factors promoting res investments in a first scenario we employ a pooled regression model in the second a fixed effect model and in the third a random effect model is estimated the main results of empirical analysis could be unexpected at first sight they show in fact that sids are not on a energy sustainability path as in the case of other developing countries policy makers prefer to use resources to improve economic aspects of development leaving behind issues related to the environmental protection the use of res and sustainability in order to improve economic and environmental resilience of sids a synergy between local governments and international organizations to promote the investments in res is needed moreover an energy plan that clearly supports the generation of energy from res is recommended finally policy makers should strength their commitment in raising population s awareness toward a green energy generation such synergic interventions will allow sids to achieve a more sustainable development