economic deregulation days of reckoning for microeconomists economic deregulation of american industry is one of the most important experiments in economic policy of our time 1 in 1977 17 percent of u s gnp was produced by fully regulated industries 2 by 1988 following ten years of partial and complete economic deregulation of large parts of the transportation communications energy and financial industries that total had been cut significantly to 6 6 percent of gnp 3 the political forces behind the decision to change the market conditions under which roughly 600 billion of u s output is produced were strong and varied but according to political scientists martha derthick and paul quirk 1985 p 36 deregulation would never have occurred if economists especially microeconomists had not generally supported it through their research 4 in retrospect it is fair to ask were microeconomists able to develop a theoretical and empirical framework to explain regulation and its effects and to form predictions of deregulation s effects were they able to predict the actual effects of deregulation this paper surveys the evidence to address these questions and of

unanticipated aggregate disturbances and tests of the life cycle consumption model several recent studies have used data on food consumption from the panel study of income dynamics psid to test t he rational expectations life cycle hypothesis against the alternative of prevalent liquidity constraints these tests invoke the rational expectations restriction that income forecast errors are independent of lagged information this restriction however applies only in a time series context it is possible that unanticipated macroeconomic disturbances cause forecast errors to be correlated with lagged information in a cross section of families the authors present evidence of such a correlation in the psid data show that this correlation biases previous tests of the life cycle model toward rejection and derive a proper test of the life cycle model using pa nel data copyright 1993 by mit press

what drives deregulation economics and politics of the relaxation of bank branching restrictions this paper investigates private interest public interest and political institutional theories of regulatory change to analyze state level deregulation of bank branching restrictions using a hazard model we find that interest group factors related to the relative strength of potential winners large banks and small bank dependent firms and losers small banks and the rival insurance firms can explain the timing of branching deregulation across states during the last quarter century the same factors also explain congressional voting on interstate branching deregulation while we find some support for each theory the private interest approach provides the most compelling overall explanation of our results

universal banks and corporate control evidence from the global syndicated loan market we investigate the effects of bank control over borrowerfirms whether by representation on boards of directors or by the holding of shares through bank asset management divisions using a large sample of syndicated loans we find that banks are more likely to act as lead arrangers in loans when they exert some control over the borrower firm bank firm governance links are associated with higher loan spreads during the 2003 2006 credit boom but lower spreads during the 2007 2008 financial crisis additionally these links mitigate credit rationing effects during the crisis the results are robust to several methods to correct for the endogeneity of the bank firm governance link our evidence consistent with intertemporal smoothing of loan rates suggests that there are costs and benefits from banks involvement in firm governance jel g21 g32

the consumption response to predictable changes in discretionary income evidence from the repayment of vehicle loans abstract although the life cycle permanent income hypothesis is the primary framework for understanding household consumption and savings decisions only a few studies have used clearly identifiable income changes to test the basic predictions of the model the estimates produced using this empirical strategy have yet to lead to a consensus of beliefs since the results have both favored and rejected the model this paper contributes to this literature by examining the consumption reaction to predictable increases in discretionary income following the final payment of a vehicle loan using data from the consumer expenditure survey the results show that a 10 increase in discretionary income due to a loan repayment leads to a 2 to 3 increase in nondurable consumption additional analysis suggests that these findings may be explained by the presence of borrowing constraints

estimating intertemporal allocation parameters using synthetic residual estimation we present a novel structural estimation procedure for models of intertemporal allocation this is based on modelling expectations errors directly we refer to it as synthetic residual estimation sre the flexibility of sre allows us to account for measurement error in consumption and for heterogeneity in intertemporal allocation parameters an investigation of the small sample properties of the sre estimator indicates that it dominates generalized method of moments gmm estimation of both exact and approximate euler equations in the case when we have short panels and noisy consumption data we apply sre to two panels drawn from the panel study of income dynamics psid and estimate the joint distribution of the discount factor and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution we reject strongly homogeneity of the discount factor and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution we find that on average the more educated are more patient and less willing to substitute intertemporally than the less educated within education strata patience and willingness to substitute are positively correlated 2010 the review of economic studies limited

consumer default and the life cycle model this paper studies the impact of a default option on life cycle consumption using a two period life cycle model with uncertain income the paper demonstrates that a default option causes a kink in both the budget set and the indifference curve at the point where the individual switches from saving to borrowing this nonconvexity can have a dramatic impact on optimal consumption the paper also explores the circumstances under which liquidity constraints are likely to emerge and the characteristics of those borrowers who are likely to face constraints copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

the finance growth nexus evidence from bank branch deregulation this paper provides evidence that financial markets can directly affect economic growth by studying the relaxation of bank branch restrictions in the united states we find that the rates of real per capita growth in income and output increase significantly following intrastate branch reform we also argue that the observed changes in growth are the result of changes in the banking system improvements in the quality of bank lending not increased volume of bank lending appear to be responsible for faster growth

working over time dynamic inconsistency in real effort tasks experimental tests of dynamically inconsistent time preferences have largely relied on choices over time dated monetary rewards several recent studies have failed to nd the standard patterns of present bias however such monetary studies contain oftendiscussed confounds in this paper we sidestep these confounds and investigate choices over consumption real eort in a longitudinal experiment we pair this eort study with a companion monetary discounting study we conrm very limited time inconsistency in monetary choices however subjects show considerably more present bias in eort furthermore present bias in the allocation of work has predictive power for demand of a meaningfully binding commitment device therefore our ndings validate a key implication of models of dynamic inconsistency with corresponding policy implications

on the benefits of concurrent lending and underwriting this paper examines whether there are efficiencies that benefit issuers and underwriters when a financial intermediary concurrently lends to an issuer while also underwriting its public securities offering we find issuers particularly noninvestmentgrade issuers for whom informational economies of scope are likely to be large benefit through lower underwriter fees and discounted loan yield spreads underwriters both commercial banks as well as investment banks engage in concurrent lending and provide price discounts albeit in different ways we find concurrent lending helps underwriters build relationships increasing the probability of receiving current and future business for many years the 1933 glass steagall act prevented commercial banks from underwriting corporate bonds and equities due to the relaxation and recent repeal of the act many commercial banks have acquired investment banks or developed investment banking capabilities internally to create universal banks that can offer an array of financial services the entry of commercial banks into underwriting markets has increased the potential for financial institutions to offer both lending and underwriting services in particular it has become increasingly common for financial intermediaries to provide loans to a firm while also underwriting the firm s public securities in fact concurrent lending and underwriting has increased substantially over time in 1994 only 1 of seasoned equity issuers received a loan from their underwriter at around the time of issuance but by 2001 over 20 of all deals were concurrent the movement toward concurrent lending and underwriting raises a host of interesting questions first why are deals concurrent

testing the response of consumption to income changes with noisy panel data this paper tests the rational expectations lifecycle model of consumption against i a keynesian model and ii the rational expectations lifecycle model with imperfect capital markets the tests are based upon the relative responsiveness of consumption to income changes that can be predicted from past information and income changes that cannot he predicted the tests allow for measurement error in income the results reject the keynesian model and generally support the lifecycle model but the results are not sufficiently precise to rule out the possibility that some households are liquidity constrained measurement error has a strong influence on the relationship between consumption and income

housing wealth and consumption growth evidence from a large panel of households this article uses a large panel dataset that tracks the housing wealth and credit card spending of 12 793 individuals in hong kong to study the relationship between housing wealth and household consumption i identify a significant effect of housing wealth on consumption a pure wealth effect can explain part of the sensitivity households with multiple houses have much stronger consumption responses consistent with a relaxation of the credit constraints mortgage refinancing significantly increases households consumption sensitivities however for the majority of the households that do not refinance consumption sensitivity appears to be due to a reduction in precautionary saving jel e21 g21

the origins of utility regulation and the theories of regulation debate in this article the author attempts to show that the effort to ascribe regulatory effects to a theory largely deflects attention from the dynamic relationships between the regulator and the regulated firm or industry played out most frequently within a long term relationship closely resembling more familiar forms of long term contracts the focus on regulation by commission is misguided and the differences between regulation by commission and by other regulatory techniques are less important than has been appreciated the author s examination of the history of public utility regulation makes impossible any clear cut distinction between competing public interest and private interest theories

academic earmarks and the returns to lobbying abstract in this paper we estimate the returns to lobbying by universities to motivate our empirical work we develop a simple theoretical model of university lobbying for academic earmarks our statistical analysis shows that universities represented by a house appropriations committee hac or senate appropriations committee sac member spend less money on lobbying than those that are not represented in addition using instrumental variables estimations we show that universities without hac or sac representation may receive some benefit to lobbying for earmarks although in many estimations this benefit is not statistically different from zero however for universities with hac or sac representation a 10 percent increase in lobbying yields an additional 2 8 percent or 3 5 percent increase in earmarks respectively this suggests that there are large returns to lobbying for academic earmarks if a university is represented by a member of one the hac or sac but little or no return if not

pressure group influence and institutional change branch banking legislation during the great depression between 1931 and 1935 the change in the state laws governing the organizational structure of banking was significant twenty two states relaxed restrictions over branch banking even though many had previously prohibited it we apply a model of pressure group and rent seeking behavior to investigate the reasons underlying this remarkable shift in the institutional arrangements for regulating the structure of the banking industry the findings indicate that the extraordinarily high rate of bank failures tipped the political balance toward the pro branching forces in many states however in a number of states growth in the influence of branch and group bankers and increases in urbanization were largely responsible for the relaxation of restrictions over branch banking

habit formation in consumer preferences evidence from panel data this paper tests for the presence of habit formation using household data a simple model of habit formation implies a condition relating the strength of habits to the evolution of consumption over time when the condition is estimated with food consumption data from the panel study on income dynamics the results yield no evidence of habit formation at the annual frequency this finding is robust to a number of changes in the specification it also holds for several proxies for nondurables and services consumption created by combining psid variables with weights estimated from consumer expenditure survey data

is the glass steagall act justified a study of the u s experience with universal banking before the glass steagall act of 1933 removed commercial banks from the securities underwriting business we evaluate the argument for the separation of commercial and investment banking that conflicts of interest induce commercial banks to fool the public into investing in securities which turn out to be of low quality a comparison of the performance of securities underwritten by commercial and investment banks prior to the act shows no evidence of this instead the public appears to have rationally accounted for the possibility of conflicts of interest and this appears to have constrained the banks to underwrite high quality securities jel g21 g24 n22

on the substitutability between private consumer expenditure and government spending in canada the purpose of this paper is twofold first to examine whether there is any substitutability between private consumer expendit ure and government spending in canada second to test the ricardian equivalence principle both hypotheses are nested within the life cyc le rational expectations model the results indicate that the joint h ypothesis of rational expectations and ricardian equivalence can not be rejected by the data moreover they suggest that government spend ing substitutes poorly for private consumer expenditure these result s imply that temporary increases in government spending will result i n an expansion of real output

regulation and the theory of legislative choice the interstate commerce act of 1887 this article concerns the economic incidence of the interstate commerce act of 1887 ica our focus is the short haul pricing constraint a provision of the ica that prohibited railroads from charging higher rates to isolated primarily agrarian shippers than it charged to intercity shippers of similar commodities utilizing the event study methodology we find that the impending passage of the ica generated a distribution of abnormal returns to railroads and shipping firms that is consistent with the theoretical implications of our analysis of the short haul pricing constraint shpc however early interpretations of the shpc by the interstate commerce commission reduced some of the abnormal returns to railroads in a manner that is inconsistent with the hypothesis that the short haul pricing constraint was an important mechanism of early railroad regulation the analysis does support a multiple interest interpretation of the interstate commerce act and has implications for the positive theory of regulation

consumer response to tax rebates many households received income tax rebates in 2001 of 300 or 600 these rebates represented advance payments of the tax cut from the new 10 percent tax bracket based on a survey of a representative sample of households this paper finds that only 22 percent of households receiving the rebate would spent it instead they would either save it or use it to pay off debt this very low rate of spending represents a striking break with past behavior which would have suggested a much higher rate of spending the low spending rate implies that the tax rebate provided a very limited stimulus to aggregate demand this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

bank geographic diversification and systemic risk exploiting staggered interstate banking deregulation as exogenous shocks to bank geographic expansion we examine the causal effect of geographic diversification on systemic risk using the gravity deregulation approach we find that bank geographic diversification leads to higher systemic risk measured by the change in conditional value at risk delta covar and financial integration logistic r 2 furthermore we document that geographic diversification affects systemic risk via its impact on asset similarity the impact of geographic diversification on systemic risk is stronger in bhcs located in states comoving less with the u s aggregate economy

evaluating microfoundations for aggregate price rigidities evidence from matched firm level data on product prices and unit labor cost a number of competing business cycle models have recently emerged all of which can explain why nominal shocks have real effects 1 although sharing a large number of common features a key difference between these models lies in the assumptions of how firms set prices and process information yet there exists very little direct micro evidence on the credibility of these assumptions this paper uses detailed data on product prices and unit labor cost merged at the firm level to evaluate competing sets of assumptions regarding firms price setting behavior thereby we provide firsthand evidence on the empirical relevance of the microfoundations of different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models

precautionary saving motives an assessment from uk time series of cross sections this paper gauges the strength of precautionary saving motives by estimating the coefficient of prudence from the u k family expenditure survey data set a time series of cross sections the instrumental variables estimates reveal that greater uncertainty systematically leads to larger current savings most of these impacts are large enough to be statistically consistent with widely accepted beliefs about attitudes towards risk so that precautionary saving behavior cannot be refuted moreover the households which are less likely to face liquidity constraints or to share risks are more sensitive to uncertainty finally the households for which the head works in the manufacturing industry are more inclined to self insure against uncertainty copyright 1996 by royal economic society

seasonal fluctuations and the life cycle permanent income model of consumption this paper examines a new possible explanation for the recent rejections of the life cycle permanent income model of consumption the treatment of seasonal fluctuations the paper shows that when the seasonal fluctuations in consumption purchases are included in an analysis of the life cycle permanent income model there is no evidence in the aggregate data against the model the estimates of the parameters of agents utility functions obtained with seasonally unadjusted data are plausible and the unadjusted data do not reject the overidentifying restrictions on the model

george stigler s contribution to the economic analysis of regulation george stigler changed the way economists analyze government regulation this enormous legacy is essentially embodied in two articles his 1962 analysis of electricity rates with claire friedland and his 1971 theoretical piece there were to be sure precursors and successors in his own work but none of them so profoundly affected the course of intellectual inquiry as these two the importance of both articles rests more i believe with the questions each posed than with the answers even by the standards of the day neither piece evinced the sort of technical sophistication that the profession has come to admire neither produced conclusions that were impervious to all serious subsequent challenges but both produced insights that have altered the course of research in the area to this day to understand stigler s contribution it is best to proceed chronologically and to begin with the state of the field around 1962 there is room here only for caricature rather than extensive survey however i think it is fair to say that the field derived its main energy from the normative economics of marginal cost pricing the proper role of government was to correct the private market failures that prevented attainment of marginal cost pricing applied economic analysis of regulation was then largely descriptive and its main tendency was to show how the regulatory institutions constrained departures from marginal cost pricing monopoly was viewed as the main barrier to marginal cost pricing and the natural monopoly occupied center stage in the economics of regulation the prime examples of natural monopoly were sup1 man made monopolies were the main subject matter of industrial organization stigler s profound influence on this field is summarized by harold demsetz s article in this issue

personal bankruptcy and credit market competition we document a link between u s credit supply and rising personal bankruptcy rates we exploit the exogenous variation in market contestability brought on by banking deregulation the relaxation of entry restrictions in the 1980s and 1990s at the state level we find deregulation explains at least 10 of the rise in bankruptcy rates we also find that deregulation leads to increased lending lower loss rates on loans and higher lending productivity our findings indicate that increased competition prompted banks to adopt sophisticated credit rating technology allowing for new credit extension to existing and previously excluded households the last quarter century saw a dramatic increase in the share of u s con sumers filing for personal bankruptcy thereby seeking a discharge of their unsecured debt in 2005 this increase led to the most comprehensive change to u s bankruptcy law since 1978 while several causes for the rise in bankruptcies have been advanced and it is the subject of ongoing research two potentially significant changes occurred during this period banking deregulation the relaxation of bank entry restrictions in the 1980s and 1990s and technological change in consumer lending banking deregulation by removing barriers to entry increases credit market competition and there fore affects the supply of credit new screening technologies change the way loans are made allowing for interest rates to better reflect underlying risk and thus facilitating lending to riskier borrowers in this paper we examine whether banking deregulation and technological change played a role in the increase in consumer bankruptcy the empirical literature has mostly focused on cross sectional differences in personal bankruptcy in particular it has revolved around legal institutions as a way to answer whether consumers file due to adverse events as part of a rational financial calculation or as a consequence of unfair or deceptive lending practices usually researchers have exploited the different asset exemptions across u s states i e the amount of personal assets protected from creditors

does the choice of consumption measure matter an application to the permanent income hypothesis abstract food consumption in the panel study of income dynamics is used as a proxy for total consumption in many applications in economics including tests of the permanent income hypothesis tests of separability between consumption and leisure and tests of intergenerational altruism food however explains only a small fraction of the variation in total consumption i propose a measure of composite consumption based on predicted wealth and compare it both to food consumption and to skinner s 1987 measure of predicted consumption in a test of the permanent income hypothesis using a log linear intertemporal consumption function i find that food does not reject the permanent income hypothesis but both skinner s predicted consumption and the composite measure proposed here to reject the hypothesis

irreversibility and consumer durables expenditures abstract this paper examines the implications of resale market imperfection on consumer durables expenditures the consumer optimization problem under resale market imperfection is formulated and solved numerically by dynamic programming algorithm the obtained decision rules of consumers reveal the slow upward and downward adjustments of durables stock the simulated aggregate durables expenditures with resale market imperfection exhibit substantial serial correlations similar to those found in actual durables expenditures time series the substantial serial correlations are found to be related to the pattern of the decision rules under resale market imperfections

the permanent income hypothesis consumption euler relations are estimated with data from the 1986 1991 us consumer expenditure survey without creating a synthetic panel the stochastic implications of the permanent income hypothesis generally are not rejected and there is little evidence of liquidity constrained or rule of thumb behavior the results are robust with respect to consumption category changes in sample and choice of instruments 1999 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

demand for environmental goods evidence from voting patterns on california initiatives this article studies voting behavior on 16 environmental ballot propositions in california in order to characterize the demand for environmental goods the environment is found to be a normal good for people with mean incomes but some environmental goods are inferior for those with high incomes at least when supplied collectively an important price of environmental goods is reduced income in the construction farming forestry and manufacturing industries income and price can explain most of the variation in voting there is little need to introduce preference variables such as political ideology

some inconvenient truths about climate change policy the distributional impacts of transportation policies abstract climate policy has favored costly measures that implicitly or explicitly subsidize lowcarbon fuels we simulate four transportation sector policies cap and trade cat ethanol subsidies a renewable fuel standard rfs and a lowcarbon fuel standard our simulations confirm that alternatives to cat are 2 5 to 4 times more costly but are amenable to adoption due to right skewed distributions of gains we analyze voting on the waxman markey wm cat bill conditional on a district s cat gains a district s rfs gains are negatively correlated with the likelihood of voting for wm our analysis supports campaign contributions as a partial mechanism

banks equity stakes and lending evidence from a tax reform abstract we study how a bank s equity stake in a borrowing firm affects lending to that firm similar to prior papers we find a positive association between a bank s equity stake in a borrowing firm and lending to that firm while such a positive cross sectional correlation may be due to equity stakes benefiting lending it may also be driven by endogeneity to distinguish the two explanations we study a german tax reform that permitted banks to sell their equity stakes tax free after the reform many banks sold their equity stakes but did not reduce lending to the firms this observation is robust to several alternative model specifications control groups and time windows our findings suggest that banks equity stakes may be less important for lending than previously thought

the reaction of household consumption to predictable changes in social security taxes the key implication of rational expectations and the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures is examined this implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy the causes and propagation of business cycles and the effects of income fluctuations on the growth rate of the economy using household level consumption data from the consumer expenditure survey whether expenditures on nondurable goods increase contemporaneously with predictable changes in social security tax withholding is tested it is found that households do change their consumption expenditures in response to the predictable fluctuations in income induced by the social security tax system

consumption and income some simple excercises with panel data this paper reports on the performance of simple versions of the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis of hall 1978 and the error correction approach of davidson et al 1978 in explaining nondurable consumption expenditure from austrian panel data paying particular attention to the characterization of nondurability we examine the parameter restrictions implied by the respective models and then select favoured dynamic consumption income relationship our findings suggest that the models receive limited support only for the narrowest category of nondurables food consumed at home particularly for broader categories the strength of model rejections and the complex dynamic paths observed imply that the models provide an inadequate description of consumption at the micro level

consumer electricity and gas prices across australian capital cities structural breaks effects of policy reforms and interstate differences abstract we detect and analyze the most significant structural changes in the quarterly growth rate of consumer electricity and gas prices in australia and estimate their corresponding seasonal effects to do so we apply the general modelling framework of the bai perron breaking regression to all available quarterly data for capital cities individually and australia as a whole 1989q3 2017q2 retail energy prices in most australian states were deregulated in the 2000s we find that increases in average quarterly growth rates of electricity and gas prices consistently occurred in the third september quarter and find very few instances of increases in any other quarters of the year in the post deregulation period price increases are significantly higher than in the pre deregulation era results for some capital cities are stark in perth third quarter growth in electricity prices has been five times higher after the structural break in australia as a whole third quarter growth in gas prices has been three times higher after the structural break we discuss several possible explanations for energy price rises in the period since deregulation

union contracts and the life cycle permanent income hypothesis this paper isolates households in the psid whose heads can be matched to particular long term union contracts with high confidence the author uses use published information on these contracts to construct a household specific measure of expected wage growth he finds that predictable wage movements are significantly correlated with consumption changes contrary to neoclassical consumption theory the author finds that consumption responds more strongly to predictable income declines than to predictable income increases this asymmetry is inconsistent with liquidity constraints and myopia but is qualitatively consistent with models in which preferences exhibit loss aversion copyright 1995 by american economic association

informational frictions and the credit crunch in this paper i estimate the magnitude of an informational friction limiting credit reallocation to firms during the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis because lenders rely on private information when deciding which relationship to end borrowers looking for a new lender are adversely selected i show how to separately identify private information from information common to all lenders but unobservable to the econometrician by using bank shocks within a discrete choice model of relationships quantitatively these informational frictions appear to be too small to explain the credit crunch in the u s syndicated corporate loan market

trends random walks and tests of the permanent income hypothesis abstract recent studies find that consumption is excessively sensitive to income these studies assume that income is stationary around a deterministic trend the data however do not reject the hypothesis that disposable personal income is a random walk with drift if income is indeed a random walk then the standard testing procedure is greatly biased toward finding excess sensitivity moreover if income follows either a more general non stationary process or a borderline stationary process this procedure is also seriously biased

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article by akira takayama discusses an earlier paper by harvey averch and leland l johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities although takayama p 255 agrees with averch and johnson s general conclusions that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return he criticizes the a j argument as being confusing ambiguous and in error takayama then attempts a clarification and presents a new formulation which leads to the a j result quoted above this comment will discuss several of takayama s criticisms in addition to showing that the so called a j effect cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both averch and johnson and takayama 1 we will show that the very assumptions used to prove the a j effect by defining the region of x require an assumption that the a j effect exists in the first place

financial intermediation and delegated monitoring this paper develops a theory of financial intermediation based on minimizing the cost of monitoring information which is useful for resolving incentive problems between borrowers and lenders it presents a characterization of the costs of providing incentives for delegated monitoring by a financial intermediary diversification within an intermediary serves to reduce these costs even in a risk neutral economy the paper presents some more general analysis of the effect of diversification on resolving incentive problems in the environment assumed in the model debt contracts with costly bankruptcy are shown to be optimal the analysis has implications for the portfolio structure and capital structure of intermediaries

the influence of the economic approaches to regulation on banking regulations a short history of banking regulations this article highlights the theoretical foundations of the regulations at work in the banking sector and examines their responsibility in the onset of the 2007 2008 financial crisis drawing a parallel between the main changes in banking regulations since the 1960s and the evolutions in the economic analyses of regulation over the same period it shows that the shift from the public interest theory of regulation that prevailed until the late 1960s towards the private interest theory of regulation accounts for the substitution of micro prudential regulations for macro prudential ones and explains a paradigmatic change in the conception of the regulatory instruments of the banking authorities it also shows that although the outcome of several factors the 2007 2008 crisis was also a consequence of the fact that the economic analysis of banking regulations supported micro prudential regulations that fail to take the global features and impact of banking activities into account and have proved unable to recommend effective solutions in a context of crisis

de jure interstate banking why only now this paper tackles three tasks it reviews the history of restrictions on interstate banking it summarizes the provisions of the interstate banking and branching efficiency act of 1994 underscoring the opt in and opt out lobbying pressure this act assigns to state legislatures finally the paper develops a lobbying pressure model designed to explain statutory changes in the framework of financial regulation the model implies that de facto liberalization of a regulatory regime precedes its de jure liberalization once adopted statutory restrictions on banks remain in place until technology and competitive regulatory enforcement have fashioned loopholes wide enough to reverse the statute sponsoring balance of lobbying pressure copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

fixed effect estimation of highly mobile production technologies we consider fixed effect estimation of a production function where inputs and outputs vary over time space and cross sectional unit we exploit variability in the spatial dimension to identify time varying individual effects without parametric assumptions on the effects while estimation is unbiased asymptotics along the spatial dimension allow estimation of robust standard errors and asymptotic normality of the marginal products also if inference on the estimates of the individual effects is warranted then spatial asymptotics provide asymptotic normality while precluding an incidental parameters problem caused by asymptotics along the time or crosssectional dimensions we apply our results to a production function of bottom trawler fishing vessels in the flatfish fisheries of the bering sea we find significant spatial variability of output catch which we exploit in estimation of a harvesting function we conclude that vessel individual effects did not change across the period 2002 to 2004 we apply the theory of ranking and selection to determine that individual effects are not statistically significant across vessels

did j p morgan s men add liquidity corporate investment cash flow and financial structure at the turn of the twentieth century this article presents evidence suggesting that the relationship that existed between the partnership of j p morgan and its client firms partially resolved the latter s external financing problems by diminishing the principal agent and asymmetric information problems i estimate and compare investment regression equations for a sample of morgan affiliated companies and a control group of nonaffiliated companies the econometric results seem to indicate that companies not affiliated to the house of morgan were liquidity constrained

credit constraints and demand for higher education evidence from financial deregulation abstract we use staggered banking deregulation across states in the united states to examine the impact of the resulting increased credit supply on college enrollment from the 1970s to the early 1990s our research design produces estimates that are not confounded by wealth effects due to changes in income or housing wealth we find that lifting banking restrictions raises college enrollment by about 2 6 percentage points 4 9 we rule out alternative interpretations by examining results for different income groups and bankrupt households we also find similar effects for two year or four year college completion and supporting evidence in household educational borrowing

motivations for market restructuring evidence from u s electricity deregulation abstract the purpose of this paper is to examine whether electricity restructuring was brought about due to the public interest theory that regulatory changes are undertaken to benefit society or the interest group theory that groups hoping to gain from deregulation lobby for regulatory changes from 1996 to 2002 eighteen states developed restructuring programs targeted at improving efficiency through the use of increased wholesale trading abolition of cost of service regulation measures to open electricity production to non utility entities and the unbundling of transmission and distribution results indicate some evidence of the public interest theory and strong evidence of the interest group theory

the adoption of state electricity regulation the role of interest groups this paper examines the adoption of state electricity regulation around the beginning of the 20th century i model this decision as a hazard rate to determine what influenced the adoption of state regulation i find that adoption is positively correlated with capacity shortages greater wealth and lower residential electricity penetration rates these results suggest that state regulation responded to regulatory inefficiencies and residential consumer interests in addition adoption rates were higher in states that had a strong industrial and coal mining presence these results are consistent with the interest group and contracting theories of regulation states began replacing municipal regulation of electric utilities with state regulation in 1907 despite the long history surprisingly little is known about the causes of the regime shift in this paper i estimate a hazard model that defines the probability of adopting state regulation as a function of variables that measure the potential benefits and costs of a number of interest groups the shortage of installed capacity and concurrent levels of electricity prices and profits the results shed light on which theories of regulation are most consistent with the data i find evidence that is consistent with the interest group theory of regulation which began with peltzman 1976 and the contracting theory of regulation attributed to priest 1993 the interest group theory of regulation centers around private interest group competition regulators respond to the pressures of interest groups one testable implication of the interest group theory is that if state regulation benefited a certain class of consumers such as residential consumers at the expense of another class of consumers the

the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income estimates from panel data on households we investigate the stochastic relation between income and consumption specifically consumption of food within a panel of about 2 000 households our major findings are 1 consumption responds much more strongly to permanent than to transitory movements of income 2 the response to transitory income is nonetheless clearly positive 3 a simple test independent of our model of consumption rejects a central implication of the pure life cycle permanent income hypothesis the observed covariation of income and consumption is compatible with pure life cycle permanent income behavior on the part of80 percent of families and simple proportionality of consumption and income among the remaining 20 percent as a general matter our findings support the view that families respond differently to different sources of income variations in particular temporary income tax policies have smaller effects on consumption than do other more permanent changes in income of the same magnitude this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

habit formation and intertemporal substitution in individual food consumption individual food consumption data are used to examine three issues first is food consumption linked intertemporally at the individual level second does the association between current and past consumption reflect habit or heterogeneity third what do the estimates imply about the intertemporal elasticity of substitution the authors find that habit matters that controlling for heterogeneity reduces estimated habit effects and that the product of the estimated intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the risk aversion parameter is less than one these results all lead to rejection of time separable specifications of intertemporal consumption behavior copyright 1996 by mit press

political power economic freedom and congress effects on bank performance abstract this paper studies the linkages between bank performance connections to powerful politicians and the degree of economic freedom in a bank s home state we find that bank performance is positively related to state economic freedom we also reconfirm the finding of gropper et al 2013 that bank performance is improved by political connections however the positive effect of political connections appears to be significantly reduced when there is a higher degree of economic freedom in the state indicating that political connections may matter less to banks when there is more economic freedom economic freedom in a state can have a beneficial effect on state economic growth and hence may outweigh any political connection benefits however the declines in state economic freedom in recent years could make political connections potentially more valuable to banks

should we test the life cycle permanent income hypothesis with food consumption data abstract most household consumption studies use food consumption data i show that in aggregate data one cannot reject the life cycle hypothesis using food but can reject it using other goods existing micro tests of the life cycle hypothesis thus may have low power

implications of ownership regulation and market structure for performance evidence from the u s electric utility industry before and after the new deal this study evaluates the impact of variations in regulation ownership and market structure in the u s electric utility industry during the period surrounding the new deal when considerable institutional variation provided a natural experiment for analysis a simultaneous equations model of electricity supply and demand is developed and estimated for the years 1930 and 1942 with firm and market level data collected on utilities serving cities of population 50 000 or more the paper offers evidence that regulation public ownership and competition served to reduce electricity prices and enhance allocative efficiency during the period under examination

financial markets intermediaries and intertemporal smoothing in an overlapping generations economy with incomplete financial markets but no intermediaries there is underinvestment in safe assets in an economy with intermediaries and no financial markets accumulating reserves of safe assets allows returns to be smoothed nondiversifiable risk to be eliminated and an ex ante pareto improvement compared to the allocation in the market equilibrium to be achieved in a mixed financial system however competition from financial markets constrains intermediaries so that they perform no better than markets alone

on the profitability and cost of relationship lending abstract we provide evidence on the costs and profitability of relationship lending by banks we derive bank specific measures of loan rate smoothing for small business borrowers in response to exogenous shocks to their credit risk and to interest rates and then estimate cost and profit functions to examine how smoothing affects bank costs and profits our results suggests that in general loan rate smoothing in response to a credit risk shock is not part of an optimal long term contract between a bank and its borrower while loan rate smoothing in response to an interest rate shock is

balancing environmental protection and energy production in the federal hydropower licensing process the u s federal energy regulatory commission ferc must balance environmental protection of riverine resources with the nation s growing demand for power production every time it issues a hydroelectric license this paper models the bureaucratic agency s decision making process in issuing these licenses data on nearly 500 hydro power licenses issued from 1983 to 2005 are utilized it is discovered that legislative and institutional constraints are by far the largest influences on ferc s regulatory decisions implying that if the current allocation of surface water in the united states is considered inefficient the most effective way to alter this allocation is by passing new legislation or by implementing institutional reform at ferc

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence this paper presents a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence political equilibrium depends on the efficiency of each group in producing pressure the effect of additional pressure on their influence the number of persons in different groups and the deadweight cost of taxes and subsidies an increase in deadweight costs discourages pressure by subsidized groups and encourages pressure by taxpayers this analysis unifies the view that governments correct market failures with the view that they favor the politically powerful both are produced by the competition for political favors

on the costs of a bank centered financial system evidence from the changing main bank relations in japan we examine the effects of bank firm relationships on firm performance in japan when access to capital markets is limited close bank firm ties increase the availability of capital to borrowing firms but do not lead to higher profitability or growth the cost of capital of firms with close bank ties is higher than that of their peers this indicates that most of the benefits from these relationships are appropriated by the banks finally the slow growth rates of bank clients suggest that banks discourage firms from investing in risky profitable projects however liberalization of financial markets reduces the banks market power the close relationship between manufacturing firms and financial institutions in japan has recently been at the center of the debate on the appropriate financial system for the reforming economies of eastern europe as opposed to the anglo saxon separation of finance and industry long term ties between main banks and their client firms involving bank loans bank equity holding and some bank appointed personnel which are common in japan and germany have often been described as a growth oriented financial system that could serve the needs of developing and reformed economiies better than anonymous capital markets modeled after the arnerican and british financial systems the claim that close ties between investmentoriented banks and industrial firms could help overcome the difficulties of relative backwardness dates back to gerschenkron 1962 who investigates european development rosovsky 1961 applies gerschenkron s framework to the analysis of japanese growth more recently aoki patrick and sheard 1994 hoshi kashyap and loveman 1994 and teranishi 1993 among others portray the close ties between finance and industry in japan as an important factor in the international competitiveness of modern japanese

the social costs of unit banking restrictions abstract many u s commercial banks are prohibited from establishing more than one full service office location in the absence of free entry to the banking industry this constraint may force unit banks to operate with a socially inefficient combination of inputs moreover entry to the industry in unit banking states may be more difficult than in branching states where market entrants need not necessarily acquire a new charter if so existing unit banks could price their output above marginal social cost earning excess profits and imposing allocational inefficiencies this paper demonstrates empirically that unit banking restrictions in the united states impose statistically and economically significant deadweight social costs

the making of economic policy a transaction cost politics perspective economic policymaking as a political process the normative approach to policy analysis the positive view of political economy a synthesis the policy process in real time a theme transaction costs the transaction cost politics framework political outcomes and economic efficiency transaction cost analysis in politics mechanisms to cope with transaction costs in politics national differences two case studies to illustrate transaction cost politics tax and expenditure reform in the united states the gatt and national trade politics some reflections and suggestions some lessons for the policy process the role of the economist concluding comments appendix multiprincipal multitask agencies

the political economy of branching restrictions and deposit insurance a model of monopolistic competition among small and large banks this article suggests that the introduction of bank branching restrictions and federal deposit insurance in the united states likely was motivated by political considerations specifically we argue that these restrictions were instituted for the benefit of the small unit banks that were unable to compete effectively with large multiunit banks we analyze this political hypothesis in two steps first we use a model of monopolistic competition between small and large banks to examine gains to the former group from the introduction of branching restrictions and governmentsponsored deposit insurance we then find strong evidence for the political hypothesis by examining the voting record of congress

organization structure and credibility evidence from commercial bank securities activities before the glass steagall act we examine the two ways in which us commercial banks organized their investment banking operations before the 1933 glass steagall act forced the banks to leave the securities business as an internal securities department within the bank and as a separately incorporated affiliate with its own board of directors while departments underwrote seemingly higher quality firms and securities than did comparable affiliates the departments obtained lower prices for the issues they underwrote the higher risk premium associated with the internal department is consistent with investors discounting for the greater likelihood of conflicts of interest when lending and underwriting are within the same structure as a result commercial banks evolved toward choosing the separate affiliate structure our results suggest that internal structure is an effective commitment mechanism and absent other distortions market pressures would propel banks to adopt an internal structure that would address regulators concerns about conflicts of interest

consumption and aggregate constraints evidence from u s states and canadian provinces state level consumption exhibits excess sensitivity to lagged income to the same extent as u s aggregate data but state specific idiosyncratic consumption exhibits substantially less sensitivity to lagged state specific income a result that also holds for canadian provinces we propose the following interpretation borrowing and lending in response to changes in consumer demand are easier for individual u s states than for the united states as a whole and therefore the measured deviation from the benchmark permanent income hypothesis model is smaller however lagged state specific variables help predict state specific consumption suggesting that the pih model still requires qualification

the benefits of lending relationships evidence from small business data this paper empirically examines how ties between a firm and its creditors affect the availability and cost of funds to the firm we analyze data collected in a survey of small firms by the small business administration the primary benefit of building close ties with an institutional creditor is that the availability of financing increases we find smaller effects on the price of credit attempts to widen the circle of relationships by borrowing from multiple lenders increases the price and reduces the availability of credit in sum relationships are valuable and appear to operate more through quantities rather than prices

an analysis of intra industry differences in the effect of regulation the case of deposit rate ceilings abstract this study examines the impact of deposit rate ceiling changes on the market value of commercial banks and stock savings and loan associations statistically significant increases in market value are found on announcement of the removal of ceilings on large denomination certificates of deposit in contrast retail commercial banks and savings and loans experienced declines in value on announcement of the elimination or relaxation of deposit rate ceilings on small denomination consumer accounts in addition for all events analyzed significant differences were found in the effect of ceiling changes on the market value of wholesale and retail commercial banks

the permanent income hypothesis and the real interest rate some evidence from panel data abstract a test of the permanent income hypothesis in panel data is formulated taking into account both the time series and cross section variation in the rate of return the over identifying restrictions of the theory rejected

politicians and banks political influences on government owned banks in emerging markets abstract government ownership of banks is very common in countries other than the united states this paper provides cross country bank level empirical evidence about political influences on these banks it shows that government owned banks increase their lending in election years relative to private banks this effect is robust to controlling for country specific macroeconomic and institutional factors as well as bank specific factors the increase in lending is about 11 of a government owned bank s total loan portfolio or about 0 5 of the median country s gdp per election per government owned bank

interest group competition and the organization of congress theory and evidence from financial services political action committees we develop a positive theory of how interest group competition shapes the organization of congress and use it to explain campaign contribution patterns in financial services since interest groups cannot enforce fee for service contracts with legislators legislators have an incentive to create specialized standing committees which foster repeated dealing between interests and committee members the resulting reputational equilibrium supports high contributions and high legislative effort for the interests contribution patterns by competing interests in the congressional battle over whether banks can enter new businesses support the theory which also has implications for term limits and campaign reform

3rd of tha month do social security recipients smooth consumption between checks this paper examines the response of consumption expenditures to the monthly receipt of social security checks since the amount and arrival date of these checks are known to the recipients the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis lcpih predicts that consumption should not respond to the receipt of these checks using daily diary data from the consumer expenditure survey this paper finds evidence that both the dollar amount and probability of expenditures increase immediately following the receipt of this check most relevant to testing the lcpih categories of instantaneous consumption expenditure such as food away from home increase on the check arrival date the response is found primarily amongst households for whom social security is the primary source of income however the magnitude of the estimated responses are relatively small and do not suggest that the utility losses are large from this non smoothing behavior this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

regulatory incentives and the thrift crisis dividends mutual to stock conversions and financial distress during the 1980s insolvency of individual thrifts and the thrift deposit insurer created severe incentive problems lacking cash to close insolvent thrifts regulators induced nearly 10 billion of private capital to flow into the industry through mutual to stock conversions we test a theory of how regulators encouraged capitalimpaired mutual thrifts to convert by permitting them to pay dividends rather than rebuild capital we estimate the costs of this policy and interpret the 1991 federal deposit insurance corporation improvement act as requiring regulators to impose restraints on depository institutions parallel to debt covenants that prevent capital distributions by nonfinancial firms experiencing distress