a simple framework for international monetary policy analysis abstract we study the international monetary policy design problem within an optimizing two country sticky price model where each country faces a short run tradeoff between output and inflation the model is sufficiently tractable to solve analytically we find that in the nash equilibrium the policy problem for each central bank is isomorphic to the one it would face if it were a closed economy gains from cooperation arise however that stem from the impact of foreign economic activity on the domestic marginal cost of production while under nash central banks need only adjust the interest rate in response to domestic inflation under cooperation they should respond to foreign inflation as well in either scenario flexible exchange rates are desirable

efficient mechanisms for bilateral trading we consider bargaining problems between one buyer and one seller for a single object the seller s valuation and the buyer s valuation for the object are assumed to be independent random variables and each individual s valuation is unknown to the other we characterize the set of allocation mechanisms that are bayesian incentive compatible and individually rational and show the general impossibility of ex post efficient mechanisms without outside subsidies for a wide class of problems we show how to compute mechanisms that maximize expected total gains from trade and mechanisms that can maximize a broker s expected profit journal of economic literature classification number 026

the performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the canadian economy in this report we evaluate several simple monetary policy rules in twelve private and public sector models of the canadian economy our results indicate that none of the simple policy rules we examined is robust to model uncertainty in that no single rule performs well in all models

commitment through specific investment in contractual relationships the effectiveness of stipulated damages in inefficiently excluding competitors can be undermined by the penalty doctrine and by the possibility of renegotiation recent works show that investment by the breached against party can restore the effectiveness of stipulated damages the authors investigate a model in which the breaching party makes a specific investment and show that 1 the breaching party s overinvestment can be an effective commitment device without need to use stipulated damages 2 the commitment through overinvestment does not suffer from the penalty doctrine nor from the possibility of renegotiation and 3 the availability of stipulated damages creates no additional effect

how much should inflation targeters care about the exchange rate abstract a dsge model is used to examine whether including the exchange rate in the central bank s policy rule can improve economic performance smoothing the exchange rate helps both financially robust economies and financially vulnerable emerging economies in handling risk premium shocks and given a small weight placed on the exchange rate the effects on inflation and output volatility are minimal with demand and cost push shocks financially vulnerable economies are especially likely to benefit from exchange rate smoothing due to perverse movements of the exchange rate they experience when hit by demand shocks and being more prone to risk premium shocks

lead markets and regulation a framework for analyzing the international diffusion of environmental innovations abstract environmental regulations are often intended to stimulate the generation and adoption of eco efficient innovations an important argument in the public debate is also the creation of new markets for environmentally benign products processes and services in other countries and the generation as a result of export opportunities for the pioneering country lead markets research on lead markets has not however focused on environmental innovations to date we therefore extend the lead market model to environmental innovations and take particular account of the peculiarities of such innovations in particular the public good character of environmental benefits and the role of regulations this approach is applied to two case studies wind energy and fuel efficient passenger cars in both cases the innovation was initially adopted in one country other countries subsequently adopted the same innovation design favored by the lead market which in turn developed into a large exporter in the wind generation and car industries respectively we discuss the regulations employed and the reasons for the international success of the innovations induced by them our findings demonstrate that when supported by global demand or regulatory trends strict regulation results in the creation of lead markets finally we provide recommendations on how our model could be used for further research and in the development of a coordinated environmental and innovation policy

increasing returns path dependence and the study of politics it is increasingly common for social scientists to describe political processes as path dependent the concept however is often employed without careful elaboration this article conceptualizes path dependence as a social process grounded in a dynamic of increasing returns reviewing recent literature in economics and suggesting extensions to the world of politics the article demonstrates that increasing returns processes are likely to be prevalent and that good analytical foundations exist for exploring their causes and consequences the investigation of increasing returns can provide a more rigorous framework for developing some of the key claims of recent scholarship in historical institutionalism specific patterns of timing and sequence matter a wide range of social outcomes may be possible large consequences may result from relatively small or contingent events particular courses of action once introduced can be almost impossible to reverse and consequently political development is punctuated by critical moments or junctures that shape the basic contours of social life

policy diffusion of emission standards is there a race to the top in a dramatic example of policy diffusion the past three decades have witnessed the spread of automobile emission standards throughout the world contrary to fears that global competition would produce a race to the bottom there appears to be a race to the top not only among rich countries but also among poor ones using econometric analysis of the adoption of automobile emission standards over the past twenty years for 129 countries the author argues that this global diffusion results from countries efforts to stay competitive in the international market due to the pressure from importing countries that have adopted stringent emission standards even developing countries have rapidly moved to adopt rich country standards the evidence shows that adoption of automobile emission standards correlates with an increase in the total value of automobile exports under some conditions economic incentives in a global market can be a complement to environmental protection

between a rock and a hard place a trade theory analysis of leakage under production and consumption based policies without a comprehensive global climate agreement carbon leakage remains a contentious issue consumption based pricing of emissions which could in practice be implemented with a full border tax adjustment bta has been forwarded as an option to increase the effectiveness of unilateral climate policy this paper questions the economic rationale behind this approach using a theoretical 2 times 2 trade model in which leakage occurs through terms of trade effects we show analytically first that consumption based pricing of emissions does not necessarily result in less leakage than production based policies second the sign of the optimal unilateral carbon tariff depends on the carbon intensity differential between the foreign country s exporting and non exporting sectors and not on the differential between home s and foreign s exporting sectors as implied by the full bta approach third based on empirical data for the year 2004 our model implies that full bta applied by the european union on e g imports from and exports to china would by shifting china s production from the export sector with a relatively low carbon intensity towards the more carbon intensive non export sector actually increase leakage

monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting dornbusch was right after all abstract dornbusch s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis is a central building block in international macroeconomics yet empirical studies of monetary policy have typically found exchange rate effects that are inconsistent with overshooting this puzzling result has been viewed by some researchers as a stylized fact to be reckoned with in policy modelling however many of these studies in particular those using vector autoregressive vars approaches have disregarded the strong contemporaneous interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate movements by placing zero restrictions on them in contrast we achieve identification by imposing a long run neutrality restriction on the real exchange rate thereby allowing for contemporaneous interaction between the interest rate and the exchange rate in a study of four open economies we find that the puzzles disappear in particular a contractionary monetary policy shock has a strong effect on the exchange rate which appreciates on impact the maximum effect occurs within 1 2 quarters and the exchange rate thereafter gradually depreciates to baseline consistent with the dornbusch overshooting hypothesis and with few exceptions consistent with uncovered interest parity uip

financial openness and business cycle volatility abstract this paper discusses whether the integration of international financial markets affects business cycle volatility in the framework of a new open economy macro model we show that the link between financial openness and business cycle volatility depends on the nature of the underlying shock empirical evidence supports this conclusion our results also show that the link between business cycle volatility and financial openness has not been stable over time

explicit and implicit targets in open economies under a flexible inflation targeting regime should policymakers avoid any reaction to movements in the foreign exchange market using data for six advanced open economies explicitly targeting inflation this article examines empirically whether real exchange rate disequilibria systematically affect the conduct of monetary policy estimates indicate that monetary policy responses in inflation targeting open economies have changed significantly as the institutional framework for the conduct of monetary policy has evolved in particular an explicit target for core inflation and a greater use of the expectation channel of monetary policy appear to be the key features of the newest policy framework in this context central banks are unlikely to react to regular fluctuations in the exchange rate

interest rate rules and transitional dynamics in an endogenously growing open economy abstract this paper sets up an endogenous growth model of an open economy in which the monetary authority implements a gradualist interest rate rule with targets for both inflation and economic growth we show that under a passive rule a monetary equilibrium exists and is unique moreover the equilibrium is locally determinate by contrast an active rule implies either two equilibria one high growth and one low growth or none in the case of two equilibria the high growth equilibrium is locally determinate while the low growth equilibrium is a source besides the stabilization and growth effects of alternative target policies are also explored in this study moreover in departing from the existing literature we turn to focus on the analysis of transition with a particular emphasis on the case of imperfect credibility

asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market abstract we show how bad and good volatility propagate through the forex market i e we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market using high frequency intra day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 2015 we document the dominating asymmetries in spillovers that are due to bad rather than good volatility we also show that negative spillovers are chiefly tied to the dragging sovereign debt crisis in europe while positive spillovers are correlated with the subprime crisis different monetary policies among key world central banks and developments on commodities markets it seems that a combination of monetary and real economy events is behind the positive asymmetries in volatility spillovers while fiscal factors are linked with negative spillovers

compulsive policy making the evolution of the german feed in tariff system for solar photovoltaic power abstract in recent years policy approaches that build upon the notion of innovation systems have enjoyed increasing attention in science technology and innovation policy but while the usefulness of systemic thinking in policy making has been demonstrated in a large number of empirical settings we still lack a detailed understanding of the dynamics at play when policy makers address systemic problems in this paper we show how complex interdependencies and the uncertain nature of technological change shape the process of targeted policy interventions in socio technical systems toward this end we analyzed the evolution of the german feed in tariff fit system for solar photovoltaic power a highly effective and widely copied policy instrument targeted at fostering the diffusion and development of renewable energy technologies we find that the policy has been subject to a considerable amount of changes many of which are the result of policy makers addressing specific system issues and bottlenecks interestingly however often these issues themselves were driven by unforeseen technological developments induced by previous policy interventions we argue that the pattern of policy serving as both a solution to and a driver of technological bottlenecks shows strong similarities with what rosenberg 1969 called compulsive sequences in the development of technical systems by shedding more light on how the characteristics of socio technical systems affect policy interventions our framework represents a first step toward more closely integrating the literature on innovation systems with the work on policy learning

strategic ex ante contracts rent extraction and opportunity costs this article cosiders the possibility that a seller can contract with one uninformed buyer prior to an auction involving two potential buyers the seller s optimal strategic ex ante contract more accurately reflects joint opportunity costs of the seller and the contracted buyer and therefore extracts more rent from the entrant moreover this ex ante contract mitigates the seller s ex post rent seeking vis a vis the contracted buyer accordingly it may create more social welfare than the absence of ex ante contracts depending upon the contracted buyer s financial constraint and the distributions of trade surplus implementation of the optimal strategic ex ante contract and policy implications are discussed

monetary policy rules in theory and in practice evidence from the uk and the us given the large amount of interaction between research on monetary policy and its practice this article examines whether some simple monetary policy rules that have been proposed in the academic literature part of which has originated from within central banks provide a reasonable characterization of actual policy in the united kingdom and the united states the article finds the simple rule that describes best the actual us monetary policy is a speed limit rule with dynamics whilst for the uk it is a forward looking rule the simpler dynamics in the uk s monetary policy rule are reflective of the lower persistence of inflation as a result of its policy of inflation targeting

determinacy and learnability of monetary policy rules in small open economies this paper evaluates under which conditions different taylor type rules lead to determinacy and expectational stability e stability of rational expectations equilibrium in a simple new keynesian small open economy model developed by gali and monacelli 2005 in particular we extend the bullard and mitra 2002 results of determinacy and e stability in a closed economy to this small open economy framework our results highlight an important link between the taylor principle and both determinacy and learnability of equilibrium in small open economies more importantly the degree of openness coupled with the nature of the policy rule adopted by the monetary authorities might change this link in important ways a key finding is that contrary to bullard and mitra expectations based rules that involve the cpi and or the nominal exchange rate limit the region of e stability and the taylor principle does not guarantee e stability we also show that some forms of managed exchange rate rules can help to alleviate problems of both indeterminacy and expectational instability yet these rules might not be desirable since they promote greater volatility in the economy

what to target inflation or exchange rate author affiliation shu lin shulin75 gmail comhaichun ye haichunye gmail com acknowledgment the authors would like to thank kent kimbrough and two anonymous referees for valuable comments 1 introductionone of the most important recent innovations in the conduct of monetary policy is inflation targeting in which a monetary authority makes public an estimated inflation rate or range and attempts to steer the actual inflation toward the target using monetary tools since its emergence in the early 1990s inflation targeting has certainly been gaining popularity over the last two decades by the end of 2006 27 countries among which 17 are developing countries had explicitly adopted this new monetary policy regime the emergence of inflation targeting has attracted substantial attention from both researchers and policymakers numerous studies have empirically evaluated the effects of adopting an explicit inflation targeting regime on a country s economic performance especially on inflation and growth while studies focusing on advanced industrial countries so far have yielded mixed results the evidence in developing countries seems to be more robust 1 batini kuttner and laxton 2005 goncalves and salles 2008 and lin and ye 2009 all find that inflation targeting significantly lowers inflation in developing countries where the credibility of the central bank has not yet been well established thus the credibility gain of adopting an explicit inflation targeting regime is substantial in addition capistran and ramos francia 2010 show that inflation targeting significantly lowers the dispersion of inflation expectations in developing countries two recent survey articles walsh 2009 and ball 2010 also concluded that inflation targeting has larger beneficial effects in developing countries than those in advanced industrial countries despite the success of inflation targeting in developing countries the more traditional exchange rate targeting framework still remains the dominant monetary policy regime in developing countries it is so popular that an influential study by calvo and reinhart 2002 finds an epidemic case of fear of floating in the developing world 2 furthermore similar to inflation targeting an exchange rate targeting regime especially a credibly enforced one is also viewed as an effective means to achieve price stability in developing countries because it serves as a nominal anchor by allowing a developing central bank to borrow credibility from a foreign monetary authority in a strict exchange rate targeting framework the targeting country s inflation rate should be equal to that of the country usually a low inflation rich country to which its exchange rate is pegged does an inflation targeting framework outperform an exchange rate targeting regime in achieving price stability in developing countries if so does this benefit come at a cost of slower growth these two important and policy related questions have not yet been examined in the literature a common feature of previous studies is that they all compare an inflation targeting regime with a very broad alternative namely a non inflation targeting regime while ignoring the substantial heterogeneity in the monetary policy regimes adopted by non inflation targeting countries a disadvantage of comparing inflation targeting with such a broad alternative is that the results may not be of direct use for policy choices the objective of this study therefore is to make the first attempt in the literature to conduct a direct empirical comparison of the emerging inflation targeting framework with the popular exchange rate targeting regime in developing countries in particular we compare the effects of these two monetary policy regimes on two key outcome variables inflation and economic growth our study is built upon three recent empirical works on the effects of inflation targeting in developing countries including batini kuttner and laxton 2005 goncalves and salles 2008 and lin and ye 2009 but we focus on directly comparing inflation targeting with exchange rate targeting

exclusive contracts and protection of investments we consider the effect of a renegotiable exclusive contract restricting a buyer to purchase from only one seller on the levels of noncontractible investments undertaken in their relationship contrary to some informal claims in the literature we find that exclusivity has no effect when all investments are fully specific to the relationship i e are purely internal exclusivity does matter when investments affect the value of the buyer s trade with other sellers i e have external effects we examine the effects of exclusivity on investments and aggregate welfare and the private incentives of the buyer seller coalition to use it

liquidity effects and the monetary transmission mechanism several recent papers provide strong empirical support for the view that an expansionary monetary policy disturbance generates a persistent decrease in interest rates and a persistent increase in output and employment existing quantitative general equilibrium models which allow for capital accumulation are inconsistent with this view there does exist a recently developed class of general equilibrium models which can rationalize the contemporaneous response of interest rates output and employment to a money supply shock however a key shortcoming of these models is that they cannot rationalize persistent liquidity effects this paper discusses the basic frictions and mechanisms underlying this new class of models and investigates one avenue for generating persistence we argue that once a simplified version of the model in christiano and eichenbaum 1991 is modified to allow for extremely small costs of adjusting sectoral flow of funds positive money shocks generate long lasting quantitatively significant liquidity effects as well as persistent increases in aggregate economic activity

the role of exchange rate in inflation targeting the case of turkey the role of the exchange rates in emerging market economies that have adopted inflation targeting it is a critical and contentious issue in the relevant literature this article investigates whet

how the ecb and the us fed set interest rates monetary policies of the european central bank ecb and us fed can be characterized by taylor rules that is both central banks seem to be setting rates by taking into account the output gap and inflation we also set up and tested taylor rules which incorporate money growth and the euro dollar exchange rate thereby improving the fit between actual and taylor rule based rates in general taylor rules appear to be a much better way of describing fed policy than ecb policy simulations suggest that the ecb s short term interest rates have been at a much lower level in the last 2 years compared with what a taylor rule would suggest

how do policies for efficient energy use in the household sector induce energy efficiency innovation an evaluation of european countries abstract research on innovation induced by climate mitigation policy has been focused predominantly on the supply side of the energy system despite considerable climate mitigation potential on the demand side less attention is given to the innovation effect of policies addressing the household sector based on a comprehensive data set including 550 policy measures over 30 years 1980 2009 and covering 21 european countries we find based on econometric estimations that policies targeting efficient energy use in the household sector significantly increase the number of patented energy efficiency inventions a comparison of the different policy types reveals a particularly strong influence from financial subsidies and energy labels the results indicate that policies supporting early market adoption of energy efficient technologies are effective in fostering innovation

anticipated versus unanticipated terms of trade shocks and the j curve phenomenon abstract using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model we examine the impact of anticipated and unanticipated terms of trade tot shocks on aggregate output inflation and the trade balance tb this allows us to offer an alternative explanation of the j curve phenomenon we find that an unanticipated tot shock increases real output as well as inflation but the j curve phenomenon may not exist under a certain condition however under the same condition an anticipated tot shock leads to the j curve effect we find that our main result concerning the j curve phenomenon continues to hold even if the assumption of rational expectations about the tot is relaxed further analysis reveals that the presence of a cost channel of monetary policy increases the intensity of the j curve effect assuming plausible parameter values while using a more general model calibration results support our theoretical predictions

how do exchange rates co move a study on the currencies of five inflation targeting countries abstract this paper does three things first it explores the type of asymmetry in exchange rate correlation for five inflation targeting countries we show their currencies co move more closely with the currencies of some influential foreign countries during joint appreciations than joint depreciations against a world currency second it establishes empirically the linkage between interest rate differentials and exchange rate correlation we find evidence that both widening and narrowing interest rate differentials will reduce the correlation third it proposes a new version of the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model the model proves to be capable of providing great insight into the two issues investigated

contractual form and market thickness in trucking a central proposition of the transaction costs literature is that firms will substitute more complicated contractual arrangements for simple spot arrangements when transactions involve relationship specific investments i investigate this proposition by testing whether simple spot arrangements are less common when local trucking markets are thin i find that doubling the thickness of the market increases the likelihood that simple spot arrangements govern transactions by about 30 for long hauls i find weaker evidence of relationships between local market thickness and contractual form for short hauls hauls for which quasi rents are particularly small contracts protect quasi rents over a surprisingly large range but they play a less important role as quasi rents decrease

monetary policy in the uk the authors argue that the institutional dimension of the bank of england monetary policy and the role the uk hm treasury assumes in this framework are both firmly based on the new consensus in macroeconomics ncm this is also the theoretical framework upon which the inflation targeting element of monetary policy is firmly based this paper discusses these aspects of uk monetary policy and then assesses the policy that has been pursued since 1997 with some reference made to the period between 1992 and 1997 when a version of the framework was introduced the strategy has been successful in terms of keeping uk inflation rates within the targets set by hm treasury however a number of problematic issues are highlighted and discussed

explaining saving investment correlations national saving and investment rates are highly positively correlated in virtually all countries this is puzzling as it apparently implies a low degree of international capital mobility this paper shows that the observed positive correlation between national saving and investment rates arises naturally within a quantitatively restricted equilibrium model with perfect mobility of financial and physical capital the model is consistent with the fact that saving investment correlations are larger for larger countries but are still substantial for small countries further the model is consistent with the finding that current account deficits tend to be associated with investment booms copyright 1993 by american economic association

labor market reforms job instability and the flexibility of the employment relationship we endogenize separation in a search model of the labor market and allow for bargaining over the continuation of employment relationships following productivity shocks to take place under asymmetric information in such a setting separation may occur even if continuation of the employment relationship is privately efficient for workers and firms we show that reductions in the cost of separation owing for example to a reduction in firing taxes lead to an increase in job instability and when separation costs are initially high may be welfare decreasing for workers and firms we furthermore show that in response to an exogenous reduction in firing taxes workers and firms may switch from rigid to flexible employment contracts which further amplifies the increase in job instability caused by policy reform

monetary policy rules for an open economy the most popular simple rule for the interest rate due to taylor 1993a is meant to inform monetary policy in economies that are closed on the other hand its main open economy alternative i e ball s 1999 rule based on a monetary conditions index mci may perform poorly in the face of specific types of exchange rate shocks and thus cannot offer guidance for the day to day conduct of monetary policy in this paper we specify and evaluate a comprehensive set of simple monetary policy rules that are suitable for small open economies in general and for the united kingdom in particular we do so by examining the performance of a battery of simple rules including the familiar taylor rule and mci based rules a la ball this entails comparing the asymptotic properties of a two sector open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated on united kingdom data under different rules we find that an inflation forecast based rule ifb i e a rule that reacts to deviations of expected inflation from target is a good simple rule in this respect when the horizon is adequately chosen adding a separate response to the level of the real exchange rate contemporaneous and lagged appears to reduce the difference in adjustment between output gaps in the two sectors of the economy but the improvement is only marginal importantly an ifb rule with or without exchange rate adjustment appears robust to different shocks in contrast to naive or ball s mci based rules

financial integration macroeconomic volatility and welfare this paper studies the effects of financial integration on macroeconomic volatility and welfare we examine a two sector tradable and nontradable twocountry world economy with production in which both stocks and bonds are traded internationally but markets are incomplete the effects of integration are examined by comparing the equilibrium properties of the model under three financial configurations autarky low integration and high integration the model predicts a non monotonic relationship between the degree of financial integration and the volatility of several macroeconomic variables greater integration is initially associated with more volatile consumption and output but as integration proceeds further volatility declines we also find that while increased integration allows for significantly greater risk sharing between countries the improvement in welfare can be very small

efficient reliance and damage measures for breach of contract this article considers a situation where the buyer or the seller of a good must engage in expenditures on specific capital before the exchange either to prepare to use the product or to prepare to sell it it is assumed that postbreach bargaining is possible and carried out in a cooperative fashion and that buyers and sellers form expectations about the outcome of such bargaining in a specific way without enforceable contracts the potential appropriability of specific rents results in inefficiently low levels of investment three damage measures commonly used to enforce contracts are shown to produce inefficiently high levels of investment and to be pareto ranked from best to worst as follows specific performance expectation damages and reliance damages

incomplete exchange rate pass through and simple monetary policy rules abstract this paper investigates the performance of various monetary policy rules in an open economy with incomplete exchange rate pass through implementing monetary policy through an exchange rate augmented policy rule does not improve social welfare compared to using an optimized taylor rule irrespective of the degree of pass through a direct exchange rate response improves welfare only if the other reaction coefficients on inflation and output are sub optimal however an indirect exchange rate response through a policy reaction to consumer price index cpi inflation rather than to domestic inflation is welfare enhancing this result is independent of whether society values domestic or cpi inflation stabilization

inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries abstract we analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets our central finding is that tight management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting in a flexible exchange rate system inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy moreover small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post both problems disappear when the central bank fixes the path of the nominal exchange rate or leans heavily against the wind in a managed float

the right of first offer abstract this paper examines the right of first offer which requires a seller to bargain with the contracted buyer before subsequent buyers arrive the contract also prevents the seller from selling his unique asset to subsequent buyers at a price below what he offers to the contracted buyer the right of first offer makes the seller less aggressive in bargaining with the contracted buyer who is privately informed about his valuation such a contract can reduce inter temporal misallocation in which a subsequent buyer gets the asset when the contracted buyer has higher valuation but it also may cause misallocation in which the contracted buyer gets the asset when subsequent buyers have higher valuations overall whether the right of first offer can increase the joint surplus for the seller and the contracted buyer as well as social welfare depends on the contracted buyer s renegotiation power and the distribution of the buyers valuations this paper also discusses the differences between the right of first offer and the most favored customer clause

does trade openness matter for aggregate instability abstract this paper presents a cash in advance model of a small open economy and shows that whether an inflation targeting interest rate rule introduces aggregate instability depends in general on the degree of openness to international trade this result emerges regardless of whether prices are sticky or flexible in a closed economy as the monetary authority responds to movements in inflation the resulting changes in interest rates affect aggregate consumption through an intertemporal substitution effect and an inflation tax effect in a small open economy this policy also induces changes in the terms of trade which depending on the degree of openness can generate counteracting effects on consumption as a consequence the implications of interest rate rules on macroeconomic stability in an open economy differ from those in a closed economy

the effects of monetary policy on unemployment dynamics under model uncertainty evidence from the united states and the euro area this paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the united states we employ a bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models which differ in several dimensions to account for the uncertainty that the policymaker faces when setting the monetary policy and evaluating its effect on real economy we find evidence of a high degree of dispersion across models in both policy rule parameters and impulse response functions moreover monetary policy shocks have very similar recessionary effects on the two economies with a different role played by the participation rate in the transmission mechanism finally we show that a policymaker who does not take model uncertainty into account and selects the results on the basis of a single model may come to misleading conclusions not only about the transmission mechanism but also about the differences between the euro area and the united states which are on average essentially small

monetary policy and the sterling exchange rate this article introduces the three contributions to the feature which address issues raised by the sterling appreciation of 1996 97 and the subsequent prolonged overvaluation cobham discusses the mpc s understanding of exchange rate changes and examines policy makers responses to the proposal that policy should respond to exchange rate misalignments kirsanova leith and wren lewis construct a new open economy macroeconomics model with international risk sharing shocks in which the welfare function derived includes a term in the terms of trade gap allsopp kara and nelson investigate the exchange rate prices pass through and how imports should be modelled and draw out the policy implications

real exchange rates and time varying trade costs this paper re examines the empirical modeling of purchasing power parity ppp deviations in the presence of commodity market frictions first we show that a specific type of smooth transition models can closely approximate the functional form of the theoretical adjustment mechanism derived by dumas 1992 dynamic equilibrium and the real exchange rate in a spatially separated world review of financial studies 5 2153 180 for the case of constant as well as changing trade costs second we develop for the first time an empirical model of the real exchange rate which allows for changes in the degree of market integration by employing a long span of data on the dollar sterling real exchange rate and a micro founded proxy for trade frictions we provide novel evidence of a significant relationship between the persistence of the real exchange rate and the level of trade costs this finding suggests that both the difficulty of detecting ppp and the extend of rogoff s puzzle vary over time with the degree of trade restrictiveness finally we highlight policy repercussions of our results

contracts as a barrier to entry it is shown that an incumbent seller who faces a threat of entry into his or her market will sign long term contracts that prevent the entry of some lower cost producers even though they do not preclude entry completely moreover when a seller possesses superior information about the likelihood of entry it is shown that the length of the contract may act as a signal of the true probability of entry

singular focus or multiple objectives what the data tell us about inflation targeting in latin america proquest denotes formulae omitted introductionin the last decade and a half several latin american countries have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary framework moving away from other intermediate targets such as monetary aggregates and allowing at least on paper more exchange rate flexibility while the literature so far has not delivered a clear verdict on the impact of inflation targeting on macro economic performance in general particularly in comparison to other mon etary frameworks that have faced the same global environment it is evident that countries that have adopted inflation targeting have generally succeeded both in stabilizing inflation at relatively low rates and in anchoring the public s expectations at levels near the target 1one recurring question that arises regarding the use of inflation targeting concerns the flexibility that policymakers need to implement it namely to what extent should exchange rate fluctuations or financial stability concerns also be incorporated into the policy of a central bank that aims at achiev ing a preannounced target for inflation this is particularly relevant given that such targeting relies critically on policy credibility and effective com munication with the public thus the perception that multiple and possibly conflicting objectives are being pursued might undermine such credibility thereby endangering the integrity of the policy regarding the exchange rate the question is whether inflation targeting can or should accommodate a certain degree of fear of floating calvo and reinhart 2002 that is a policy reaction directed at preventing or smooth ing out exchange rate fluctuations in the most narrow sense it is clear that central banks using inflation targeting should respond to these movements when via a pass through they are likely to be transmitted to inflation or inflationary expectations however beyond this pass through effect there is also a case for reacting to exchange rate movements as these could gen erate supply side effects through their impact on the prices of intermediate inputs they could also affect competitiveness and particularly in highly dollarized economies lead to balance sheet effects that feed into financial instability in fact there is evidence that countries using inflation targeting do react to exchange rate movements estimating a monetary reaction function for a panel of advanced and emerging economies during 1996 2011 munoz and schmidt hebbel 2012 find that the short term policy rate in countries both with and without inflation targeting known as it reacts to changes in the nominal exchange rate using a similar approach but focusing on emerging economies aizenman hutchinson and noy 2011 find that the policy rate reacts to changes in the real exchange rate particularly in commodity export ing countries note that it is not possible to determine from these studies whether there is a separate exchange rate objective at play as opposed to the exchange rate being treated as one more signal regarding future inflation ary pressures from a different perspective berganza and broto 2012 focus their attention directly on foreign exchange forex interventions by central banks consistent with the presumed greater exchange rate flexibility of it they find that exchange rates are indeed more volatile in inflation targeting countries than in countries that do not target inflation however forex inter vention is far from absent in the targeting countries and it is found to be effective in reducing exchange rate volatility on the second question whether financial stability concerns should be incorporated into an inflation targeting framework there is also a case for expanding the set of instruments at the disposal of policymakers making use of macroprudential tools such as dynamic provisioning countercyclical capital requirements and loan to value limits and even complementing these instruments with an explicit reaction of the policy rate to an appropriate financial stability indicator

on the international effects of inflation targeting abstract this study empirically examines the international effects of inflation targeting employing a variety of propensity score matching methods we find strong evidence that inflation targeting has significantly different impacts on exchange rate volatility and international reserves in different country groups it significantly increases real and nominal exchange rate stability and international reserves in developing countries but lowers them in industrial countries on average inflation targeting increases lowers reserves roughly by the size of 1 3 1 8 months of imports values in developing industrial countries the treatment effects on targeting countries current accounts are found to be insignificant in both country groups

simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty abstract we analyze the performance and robustness of some common simple rules for monetary policy in a new keynesian open economy model under different assumptions about the exchange rate model adding the exchange rate to an optimized taylor rule that responds to cpi inflation gives only small improvements in terms of economic stability in most model configurations the taylor rule is also slightly more robust to uncertainty about the exchange rate model than are rules that respond to the rate of exchange rate depreciation our results thus indicate that the taylor rule is sufficient to stabilize a small open economy also under exchange rate model uncertainty

the role of the exchange rate in monetary policy rules for a country that chooses not to permanently fix its exchange rate through a currency board or a common currency or some kind of dollarization the only alternative monetary policy that can work well in the long run is one based on the trinity of i a flexible exchange rate ii an inflation target and iii a monetary policy rule while not often put into this threepart format the desirability of such a monetary policy in an open economy is in my view the clear implication of three corresponding strands of recent monetary research i research on fixed exchange rates regimes including the influential 1995 article the mirage of fixed exchange rates by maurice obstfeld and kenneth rogoff and the many analyses of the breakdown of fixed exchange rate regimes in the late 1990 s ii research on the practical success with inflation targeting by ben bernanke et al 1999 and iii research on the benefits of simple monetary policy rules see e g taylor 1999a this clear policy implication however does not end the debate about how exchange rates should be taken into account in formulating monetary policy even if one excludes capital controls and sterilized exchange market intervention from consideration because they are not effective or attractive ways to de link exchangerate movements from the domestic interest rate a crucial question remains how should the instruments of monetary policy the interest rate or a monetary aggregate react to the exchange rate should policymakers avoid any reaction and focus instead on domestic indicators such as inflation and real gdp or is the rule of thumb that a substantial appreciation of the real exchange rate furnishes a prima facie case for relaxing monetary policy as characterized by obstfeld and rogoff 1995 p 93 a better monetary policy rule or perhaps policymakers should heed the obstfeld rogoff warning that substantial departures from ppp purchasing power parity in the short run and even over decades make such a policy reaction to the exchange rate undesirable more generally if one accepts the trinity concept of monetary policy in an open economy then what is the role of the exchange rate in the monetarypolicy rule

home bias exchange rate disconnect and optimal exchange rate policy abstract this paper examines how much the central bank should adjust the interest rate in response to real exchange rate fluctuations the paper first demonstrates in a two country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model that home bias in consumption is important to replicate the exchange rate volatility and exchange rate disconnect documented in the data when home bias is high the shock to uncovered interest rate parity uip can substantially drive up exchange rate volatility while leaving the volatility of real macroeconomic variables such as gdp almost untouched the model predicts that the volatility of the real exchange rate relative to that of gdp increases with the extent of home bias this relation is supported by the data a second order accurate solution method is employed to find the optimal operational monetary policy rule our model suggests that the monetary authority should not seek to vigorously stabilize exchange rate fluctuations in particular when the central bank does not take a strong stance against the inflation rate exchange rate stabilization may induce substantial welfare loss the model does not detect welfare gain from international monetary cooperation which extends obstfeld and rogoff s obstfeld m rogoff k 2002 global implications of self oriented national monetary rules quarterly journal of economics may 503 535 findings to a dsge model

empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect a review beginning with william stanley jevons in 1865 a number of authors have claimed that economically justified energy efficiency improvements will increase rather than reduce energy consumption jevons paradox is extremely difficult to test empirically but could have profound implications for energy and climate policy this paper summarises and critiques the arguments and evidence that have been cited in support of jevons paradox focusing in particular on the work of len brookes and harry saunders it identifies some empirical and theoretical weaknesses in these arguments highlights the questions they raise for economic orthodoxy and points to some interesting parallels between these arguments and those used by the biophysical school of ecological economics while the evidence in favour of jevons paradox is far from conclusive it does suggest that economy wide rebound effects are larger than is conventionally assumed and that energy plays a more important role in driving productivity improvements and economic growth than is conventionally assumed 2008 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

japan s post fukushima challenge implications from the german experience on renewable energy policy the japanese electricity sector is facing serious challenges in the aftermath of the fukushima nuclear disaster the government has responded to the crisis with a new feed in tariff to promote increased utilization of renewable energy and proposed to reduce the dependence on nuclear power in this viewpoint we liken the transition implied by recently updated goals for the diffusion of renewables in japan to the transition in germany in the last decade we argue that some of the lessons learned in germany might prove valuable for the steps japan considers taking in particular we focus on the new japanese feed in tariff for solar photovoltaics in view of the recent developments in germany we emphasize the importance of the scheme s political legitimacy which needs to be maintained through adequate design of both policy instrument and political process we conclude with policy implications and a targeted research agenda

environmental policy stringency and technological innovation evidence from survey data and patent counts this article uses patent data to examine the impact of public environmental policy on innovations in environment related technology the analysis is conducted using data on an unbalanced panel of 77 countries between 2001 and 2007 drawing upon data obtained from the european patent office epo world patent statistical patstat database and the world economic forum s wef executive opinion survey the results support our hypotheses concerning the positive role of both general innovative capacity and environmental policy stringency on environment related innovation a subsequent two stage model assesses the factors which drive innovation in general and uses the fitted values to estimate environmental innovation while the analysis is conducted on a smaller sample they confirm the findings of the reduced form model

do central banks respond to exchange rate movements some new evidence from structural estimation l auteure etudie l incidence des mouvements du taux de change sur la conduite de la politique monetaire en australie au canada en nouvelle zelande et au royaume uni elle elabore et estime un modele structurel d equilibre general a deux secteurs dans lequel les prix et les salaires sont rigides et les variations du taux de change se repercutent de facon limitee

the robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the european central bank abstract this paper examines the implications of recent research on monetary policy rules for practical monetary policy making with special emphasis on strategies for setting interest rates by the european central bank ecb the paper draws on recent research and new simulations of a large open economy model to assess the efficiency of a simple benchmark rule in comparison with other proposed rules further it stresses new results on the robustness of monetary policy rules in which each rule that is optimal or good according to one model or researcher is tested for robustness by other researchers using different models because of the large increase in the number of economists focussing on econometric evaluation of monetary policy rules for the interest rate instrument and because of the parallel increase in the variety of models being developed for this purpose much more evidence is becoming available on the robustness of simple monetary policy rules for the interest rate than ever before

pollution tax heuristics an empirical study of willingness to pay higher gasoline taxes economists widely agree that in concept pollution taxes are the most cost effective means of reducing pollution with the advent of monitoring and enforcement technologies the case for pollution taxation is generally getting stronger on the merits despite widespread agreement among economists however pollution taxes remain unpopular especially in north america some oppose pollution taxes because of a suspicion that government would misspend the tax proceeds while others oppose pollution taxes because they would impose economic hardships upon certain individuals groups or industries and there is no pollution tax more pathologically hated as the gasoline tax this is unfortunate from an economic perspective as a gasoline tax is easy to implement and is a reasonable pigouvian tax scaling proportionately with the harms of consumption surprisingly there is a dearth of theory explaining this cleave between economists and virtually everybody else drawing on behavioralist literatures this paper introduces several theories as to why people and governments so vehemently oppose pollution taxes using the example of gasoline taxes we provide some empirical evidence for these theories we also show that revenue recycling the use of tax proceeds to reduce other taxes is an effective means of reducing opposition to gasoline taxes

a stable international monetary system emerges inflation targeting is bretton woods reversed a stable international monetary system has emerged since the early 1990s a large number of industrial and a growing number of developing countries now have domestic inflation targets administered by independent and transparent central banks these countries place few restrictions on capital mobility and allow their exchange rates to float the domestic focus of monetary policy in these countries does not have any obvious international cost inflation targeters have lower exchange rate volatility and less frequent sudden stops of capital flows than similar countries that do not target inflation inflation targeting countries also do not have current accounts or international reserves that look different from other countries this system was not planned and does not rely on international coordination there is no role for a center country the imf or gold it is durable in contrast to other monetary regimes no country has been forced to abandon an inflation targeting regime succinctly it is the diametric opposite of the post war system bretton woods reversed

the dependence structure between the canadian stock market and the usd cad exchange rate a copula approach this paper investigates the dependence structure between the real canadian stock returns and the real usd cad exchange rate returns using the symmetrized joe clayton sjc copula function we estimate the sjc copula with monthly data over the period 1995 1 to 2006 12 our results show significant asymmetric static and dynamic tail dependence between the real stock returns and the real exchange rate returns such that the two returns are more dependent in the left than in the right tail of their joint distribution we explain this asymmetric dependence in terms of an asymmetric interest rate policy by canadian monetary authorities in response to changes in the real exchange rate during sub periods of falling and rising commodity prices le texte analyse la structure de dependance entre les rendements reels sur les actions canadiennes en bourse et les taux de rendements reels sur le taux de change entre le canada et les etats unis en utilisant la fonction a copule symetrisee joe clayton sjc on calibre cette fonction a l aide de donnees mensuelles pour la periode allant de 1995 1 a 2006 12 les resultats montrent une dependance asymetrique statique et dynamique significative entre les rendements reels sur les actions et les taux de rendements reels sur le taux de change telle que les deux rendements reels sont davantage dependants l un de l autre a l extremite gauche qu a l extremite droite de leur distribution conjointe on explique cette dependance asymetrique en termes d une politique asymetrique du taux d interet par les autorites canadiennes en reponse aux changements dans le taux de change reel durant les sous periodes de prix croissants et decroissants des denrees

perils of unconventional monetary policy abstract unconventional monetary policy by relaxing restrictions on the composition of the balance sheet of the central bank compromises control over the stochastic path of inflation or in open economies over the stochastic path of exchange rates if the composition of the balance sheet is unrestricted then the path of inflation is indeterminate this is the case under pure quantitative easing where the target is the size of real money balances in contrast credit easing policies restrict the composition of the portfolio by targeting a specific expansion in the maturity profile of bonds bought and thus can implement a determinate path of inflation the composition of the portfolios traded by monetary fiscal authorities also determines premia in asset and currency markets

product oriented climate policy learning from the past to shape the future abstract product oriented climate policies such as labels financial incentives and emission standards for vehicles and buildings have achieved considerable reductions in emissions and triggered innovations that offer very low emissions during the use phase in contrast to other climate policy instruments these policies are successfully applied in an increasing number of regions however a major proportion of global emissions namely those from industry remain outside the scope of most current forms of product oriented climate policies all economic activities could be included by extending product oriented policies to embodied emissions i e emissions resulting from manufacturing products to guide such a development we need a better understanding of the current state and potential future development of this policy approach therefore in this paper we review and evaluate policy evolution over the past decade in terms of both measures implemented and emissions addressed on this basis we synthesize a framework for developing policy towards greater stringency and broader scope the framework describes a step wise process to achieve increasingly stringent standards once established standards can extend their scope to include additional similar products and related embodied emissions our framework and policy review informs the reinforcement and extensions of current product oriented climate policies a relevant implication for international climate policy is that the regional adoption of such policies incentivizes the global diffusion of low ghg products international climate policy can foster this development by supporting the harmonization of carbon footprint norms for products in order to enhance conformity with international trade and facilitate the extension of product oriented climate policy to embodied emissions

the role of exclusive contracts in facilitating market transactions vertical contracts between a buyer and a seller often contain exclusivity provisions that restrict their ability to transact with third parties in the future in this paper we develop a matching model in which matched agents first decide whether or not to adopt exclusivity provisions and then bargain over the price of a good in the presence of private information we show that by making disagreement more costly exclusivity provisions reduce the risk of inefficient bargaining breakdowns and that agents find it optimal to adopt exclusive contracts in thin markets but not in thick markets for intermediate levels of market thickness all agents matched and unmatched would be better off if courts did not enforce the exclusivity provisions

launching new products through exclusive sales channels when launching a new product a manufacturer usually sells it through competing retailers under non exclusive arrangements recently many new products cellphones electronics toys etc are sold through a single sales channel via an exclusive arrangement in this paper we present two separate models that examine these two arrangements each model is based on a stackelberg game in which the manufacturer acts as the leader by setting the wholesale price and the retailers act as the followers by choosing their retail prices for each model we solve the stackelberg game by determining the manufacturer s optimal wholesale price and each retailer s optimal retail price in equilibrium then we examine the conditions under which the manufacturer should sell the new product through an exclusive retailer in addition we examine the impact of postponing the wholesale price decision and the impact of demand uncertainty on the manufacturer s optimal profit under both arrangements

agency and strategic contracts theory and evidence from r d agreements in the pharmaceutical industry we examine the use of strategic rights in research and development r d agreements between a client and an agent when an entrant may compete with the client for the license of non contracted discoveries developed by the agent the agent puts effort either in the contracted project or into other r d activities which can result in non contracted discoveries strategic rights help the client and the agent extract rent from the entrant and also motivate the agent to place effort into the contracted project accordingly firms are more likely to adopt strategic rights when the likelihood of entry is larger moreover strategic rights and termination rights are substitutes in mitigating agency problems by investigating r d agreements between pharmaceutical clients and bio tech agents we find consistent evidence of the positive impact of entry threat on the use of strategic rights as well as evidence of the substitution between strategic rights and termination rights

financial integration and business cycles in a small open economy abstract the purpose of this study is to examine a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework with financial and informational frictions and foreign borrowing in the case of money growth and technology shocks for a small open economy and to analyze the implications of varying degrees of financial integration for aggregate fluctuations and propagation mechanisms in the economy the existence of informational asymmetries among the agents in the model necessitates financial intermediation in the economy moreover there is uncertainty involved in the production process which leads to collateralized borrowing by firms and therefore has to be taken into account in the design of the loan contracts between firms and financial intermediaries it is shown that increasing financial integration amplifies the effect of a positive temporary monetary shock on output consumption investment labor demand and loans whereas it has barely any implication for the impact of a positive temporary technology shock on the economy

money new keynesian macroeconomics and the business cycle abstract we show in this paper that the typical modern business cycle cannot be reduced to the real business cycles archetype a monopolistic competition model with price adjustment costs affected by technological and monetary shocks better mimics the economic fluctuations in two countries with very different cyclical properties namely france and the united states in our model monetary shocks are necessary to reproduce the standard deviation of output the money output correlation the labour productivity worked hours relative standard deviation the labour productivity worked hours correlation and the mark up output correlation with two independent shocks one real more specifically defined than the solow residual and one nominal the model gives an answer to some empirical puzzles which were left unexplained by traditional rbc models

do central banks respond to exchange rate movements a structural investigation abstract we estimate a small scale structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using bayesian methods our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in australia canada new zealand and the uk we consider generic taylor type rules where the monetary authority reacts in response to output inflation and exchange rate movements we perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates the main result of this paper is that the central banks of australia and new zealand do not whereas the bank of canada and the bank of england do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule this result is robust for various specification of the policy rule we also find that terms of trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles

from production based to consumption based national emission inventories abstract under the united national framework convention of climate change unfccc countries are required to submit national emission inventories nei to benchmark reductions in greenhouse gas ghg emissions depending on the definition and system boundary of the nei the mitigation options and priorities may vary the territorial system boundary used by the unfccc has been critiqued for not including international transportation and potentially causing carbon leakage to address these issues past literature has argued in favour of using consumption based nei in climate policy this article discusses several issues in moving from the standard production based nei to consumption based nei first two distinct accounting approaches for constructing consumption based nei are presented the approaches differ in the allocation of intermediate consumption of imported products second a consistent method of weighting production based and consumption based nei is discussed this is an extension of the previous literature on shared responsibility to nei third due to increased uncertainty and a wide system boundary it may be difficult to implement consumption based nei directly into climate policy several alternative options for incorporating consumption based inventories into climate policy are discussed

financial market integration and macroeconomic volatility the process of financial market integration is modeled in an intertemporal general equilibrium framework as the elimination of trading frictions between financial markets in different countries goods markets are assumed to be imperfectly competitive and goods prices are subject to sluggish adjustment simulation experiments show that increasing financial market integration increases the volatility of a number of variables when shocks originate from the money market but decreases the volatility of most variables when shocks originate from real demand or supply copyright 1996 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

new directions for stochastic open economy models the paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based on sticky nominal wages explicit solution of the wage setting problem under uncertainty allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare expected output and the expected terms of trade despite the potential interplay between imperfections due to sticky wages and monopoly the optimal monetary policy rule has a closed form solution to motivate our model we show that observed correlations between terms of trade and exchange rates are more consistent with our traditional assumptions about nominal rigidities than with a popular alternative based on local currency pricing 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

cooperative investments and the value of contracting recent articles have shown that contracts can support the efficient outcome for bilateral trade even in the face of specific investments and incomplete contracting these studies typically considered selfish investments that benefit the investor e g the seller s investment reduces her production costs the authors find very different results for cooperative investments that directly benefit the investor s partner e g the seller s investment improves the buyer s value of the good most importantly if committing not to renegotiate the contract is impossible then contracting has no value i e the parties cannot do better than to abandon contracting altogether in favor of ex post negotiation

bargaining under incomplete information this paper presents and analyzes a bargaining model of bilateral monopoly under uncertainty under the bargaining rule proposed the buyer and the seller each submit sealed offers that determine whether the good in question is sold and the transfer price the nash equilibrium solution of this bargaining game implies an offer strategy of each party that is monotonic in its own reservation price and depends on its assessment of the opponent s reservation price issues of relative bargaining advantage and efficiency are examined for a number of special cases finally we discuss the appropriateness of the nash solution concept

globalisation pass through and the optimal policy response to exchange rates abstract in this paper we examine how monetary policy should respond to nominal exchange rates in a new keynesian open economy model that allows for a non trivial role for sterilised intervention the paper develops the argument against the backdrop of the evolving policy making environment of asian economies sterilised intervention can be a potent tool that offers policymakers an additional degree of freedom in maximising global welfare we show that the gains to sterilised intervention are greater when goods market integration is low and exchange rate pass through is high however increased financial internationalisation reduces the effectiveness of sterilised intervention as the international policy trilemma becomes more relevant unsterilised intervention may also have a role to play although the potential welfare gains from this are generally smaller most central banks in asia have actively used sterilised foreign exchange intervention as a policy tool to smooth exchange rates but over time declining exchange rate pass through and the increasing international integration of financial and goods markets will tend to reduce the efficacy of sterilised intervention given the limited effectiveness of unsterilised intervention our model implies that the role of exchange rate movements in the optimal setting of monetary policy in asia is decreasing

trade climate change and the political game theory of border carbon adjustments the lack of real progress at the durban climate change conference in 2011 postponing effective action until at least 2020 has many causes one of which is the failure to address trade issues and in particular carbon leakage this paper advances two arguments first it argues that the conventional view of border carbon adjustments bcas as a dirty trade barrier should be turned on its head rather the absence of a carbon price comprises an implicit subsidy to dirtier production in non regulated markets second bcas could act as a game changer when climate policy negotiations move at a glacial pace if at all materially stronger progress could be achieved indirectly from the threat of unilateral trade policies the paper shows how this could come about using a simple political game theory model the appropriate game form is one in which parties move unilaterally and sequentially given the failure to agree on a common course of action and are fully aware of the impacts of their actions the paper shows that properly crafted bcas could help reduce trade distortions limit the competiveness effects and help build a broader coalition of interests for more global actions

economic versus belief based models shedding light on the adoption of novel green technologies abstract understanding the determinants for the adoption of novel green consumer technologies is important to effectively foster their diffusion energy and environmental science literature often takes an approach based on economic variables such as objectively measureable household and technology characteristics increasingly also subjective variables based on personal belief are considered on the basis of a survey about the intention to adopt an exemplary novel green consumer technology intelligent thermostats we contribute to the clarification of the explanatory power of these two approaches we first compare the economic model to the belief based model and second investigate how beliefs about the green technology are influenced by personal environmental norms and innovativeness our evaluation shows that the belief based model explains considerably higher variance in the intention to adopt thereby the perceived hedonic satisfaction usefulness habit and facilitating conditions reveal as key determinants moreover environmental norms show lower impact than personal innovativeness in the discussion we consolidate these findings and point to the risk of omitted variable bias when selectively including belief based variables in adoption models our findings suggest that policies can effectively accelerate the early market diffusion of green consumer technologies by incentivizing retailers to introduce and market such technologies

borders and nominal exchange rates in risk sharing models of risk sharing predict that relative consumption growth rates are positively related to changes in real exchange rates we investigate this hypothesis using a new multicountry and multiregional data set within countries we find evidence for risk sharing episodes of high relative regional consumption growth are associated with regional real exchange rate depreciation across countries however the association is reversed relative consumption and real exchange rates are negatively correlated we define this reversal as a border effect we find the border effect and show that it accounts for over half of the deviations from full risk sharing since cross border real exchange rates involve different currencies it is natural to ask how much of the border effect is accounted for by movements in exchange rates our measures indicate that a large part of the border effect comes from nominal exchange rate fluctuations we develop a simple open economy model that is consistent with the importance of nominal exchange rate variability in accounting for deviations from cross country risk sharing

complexity and renegotiation a foundation for incomplete contracts the paper considers a hold up model where only one of n future trading opportunities will prove to be efficient and where ex post renegotiation of the ex ante contract cannot be prevented as the environment becomes more complex n the outcome under any message contingent long term contract converges to that of the incomplete contracting model where trade is contractible ex post but not ex ante when trades are costly to describe both ex ante and ex post the incomplete contracting result is extended to a broader class of environments

do real balance effects invalidate the taylor principle in closed and open economies this paper examines the determinacy implications of forecast based monetary policy rules that set the interest rate in response to expected future inflation in a neo wicksellian model that incorporates real balance effects we show that the presence of such effects in closed economies restricts the ability of the taylor principle to prevent indeterminacy of the rational expectations equilibrium the problem is exacerbated in open economies particularly if the policy rule reacts to consumer price rather than domestic price inflation however determinacy can be restored in both closed and open economies with the addition of monetary policy inertia

a comparison of optimal policy rules prior to and during inflation targeting empirical evidence from bank of canada abstractwe examine policy rules that are consistent with inflation targeting it framework in a small macroeconomic model of the canadian economy we set up an optimal linear regulator problem and derive policy rules to compare the dynamics of pre it and it eras we find that while the optimal monetary policy rule in the pre it period is best described with a loss function that attaches equal weight to price stability financial stability and output stability the it era is dominated by the price stability objective followed by the financial stability and output stability consecutively moreover we do not find an explicit role for exchange rate stability in the objective function of the bank of canada for both monetary policy eras we then compare the properties of the derived optimal rules with those of an ad hoc taylor rule for the it period in response to inflationary shocks taylor rule brings down inflation rates more quickly compared to the derived policy rules but at the cost of a higher sac

the innovation effects of environmental policy instruments a typical case of the blind men and the elephant abstract in this paper we examine the innovation effects of environmental policy instruments in four literatures theoretical models on incentives for eco innovation econometric studies based on observed data survey analysis based on stated information and technology case studies the aim of this paper is to critically examine the methods and the results we argue that the case studies literature even when its results are specific and difficult to generalise is a necessary source of empirical evidence about policy impacts and the factors responsible for these impacts pointing to issues that are neglected in the theoretical and econometric literature such as the specifics of the innovation context and policy interaction effects the paper states five synthesised findings and makes a plea for multi method analysis one other important synthesised finding is that the influence of market based instruments on innovation such as emission trading and taxes is far weaker than assumed

implicit asymmetric exchange rate peg under inflation targeting regimes the case of turkey especially after the 2000s many developing countries let exchange rates float and began implementing inflation targeting regimes based on mainly manipulation of expectations and aggregate demand however most developing countries implementing inflation targeting regimes experienced considerable appreciation trends in their currencies might have exchange rates been utilized as implicit tools even under inflation targeting regimes in developing countries to answer this question and investigate the determinants of inflation under an inflation targeting regime as a case study this paper analyzes the turkish experience with the inflation targeting regime between 2002 and 2008 there are two main findings of this paper first the evidence from a vector autoregressive var model suggests that the main determinants of inflation in turkey during this period are supply side factors such as international commodity prices and the variation in exchange rate rather than demand side factors since the turkish lira tl was considerably over appreciated during this period it is apparent that the turkish central bank benefited from the appreciation of the tl in its fight against inflation during this period second our findings suggest that the appreciation of the tl is related to the deliberate asymmetric policy stance of the bank with respect to the exchange rate both the econometric analysis from a var model and descriptive statistics indicate that appreciation of the turkish lira was tolerated during the period under investigation whereas depreciation was responded aggressively by the bank we call this policy stance under the inflation targeting regimes as implicit asymmetric exchange rate peg the turkish experience indicates that as opposed to rhetoric of central banks in developing countries inflation targeting developing countries may have an asymeyric stance toward exchange rates and favour appreciation of their currencies to hit their inflation targets in this sense it seems to contribute to the ignorance of dangers regarding to over appreciation of currencies in developing countries

efficiency wages financial market integration and the fiscal multiplier abstract we used a new open economy macroeconomic model featuring a labor market friction in the form of efficiency wages to analyze the implications of financial market integration for the fiscal multiplier the fiscal multiplier measures the accumulated effect of fiscal policy on output conventional wisdom based on the basic textbook version of the classic mundell fleming model suggests that the fiscal multiplier should become smaller as financial markets become more integrated we show that a labor market friction in the form of efficiency wages implies that financial market integration should increase the fiscal multiplier

the new open economy macroeconomics a survey since the 1995 publication of obsteld and rogoff s redux model there has been an outpouring of research on open economy dynamic general equilibrium models that incorporate imperfect competition and nominal rigidities this paper offers an interim survey of this recent literature 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

do you not like pigou or do you not understand him tax aversion and revenue recycling in the lab tax aversion reduces the likelihood that price rationing can be a politically viable tool for environmental protection we examine the case of the classic pigouvian tax to control a negative externality and consider how recycling the revenues labeling of the tax and information about its purpose affects the support for taxation we test the support for taxation within a single price market experiment in which purchases by some buyers impose external costs on others observing behavior consistent with tax aversion we also find that recycling the revenues to more narrowly targeted groups seems to increase support for taxation in the absence of narrow revenue recycling labeling a pigouvian instrument as a tax may significantly lower the likelihood of voter support