is there private information in the fx market the tokyo experiment it is a common view that private information in the foreign exchange market does not exist we provide evidence against this view the evidence comes from the introduction of trading in tokyo over the lunch hour lunch re turn variance doubles with the introduction of trading which cannot be due to public information since the flow of public information did not change with the trading rules having eliminated public information as the cause we exploit the volatility pattern over the whole day to discriminate between the two alternatives private information and pricing errors three key re sults support the predictions of private information models first the vola tility u shape flattens greater revelation over lunch leaves a smaller share for the morning and afternoon second the u shape tilts upward an impli cation of information whose private value is transitory finally the morning exhibits a clear u shape when tokyo closes over lunch and it disappears when trading is introduced

the social structure of a national securities market in this article a national securities market the stock options market is characterized as a social structure represented by the networks of actors who traded options on the floor of a major securities exchange trading among actors exhibited distinct social structural patterns that dramatically affected the direction and magnitude of option price volatility the argument that this market is socially structured is constructed in four parts behavioral assumptions about the nature of economic actors models of micronetworks models of macronetworks and price consequences in the ideal typical model of the market actors are assumed to be hyperrational and never to act opportunistically with these behavioral assumptions the micronetworks of actors should be expansive a condition which would result in undifferentiated and homogeneous macronetworks such macronetworks would tend to reduce the volatility of option prices but in the empirical market studied here actors are subject to bounded rationality a

non walrasian equilibria with speculation abstract the paper examines equilibria with out of equilibrium trading there are two types of consumers speculators who feel they have insight into where the ultimate equilibria price of the economy will be and non speculators the limit of the price process is a pareto optimum if and only if speculators are right and at the limit all consumers have zero excess demand when speculators are wrong price processes may converge to non pareto optimal limits with zero excess not every price process has a limit and not every limit of every price process will lead to zero excess demand

delegated portfolio management abstract a problem of screening agents with privately known forecasting abilities and reservation utilities and then eliciting truthful information from these agents once they are employed is considered for the case of risk averse agents and large principals an approximately optimal solution is constructively characterized under the assumption that payoffs are normally distributed a significant extension of the definnetti savage probability elicitation result is developed under this extension knowledge of agent preferences is not required when the underlying conditional distributions are symmetric and this fact is exploited to solve the screening problem in a mean variance formulation

miners wages in post war britain an application of a model of trade union behavior the paper studies the determination of wages in the british coal industry a utility maximising model of a trade union is used to represent the behaviour of the national union of mineworkers a non linear structural model is derived and is estimated by full information maximum likelihood the results are quite encouraging there is support for a neo classical demand curve for miners labour and a significant estimate of workers relative risk aversion

wage vacancy contracts and coordination frictions abstract we consider a directed search model with risk averse workers and risk neutral entrepreneurs who can set up firms that post wage vacancy contracts i e contracts where firms can make payments to more than one applicant and where the payments can be different for each applicant and be contingent on the number of applicants we establish that the type of contracts the literature focuses on are not offered if firms can post wage vacancy contracts we show that there exists an equilibrium satisfying a monotonic expected utility property which is efficient furthermore we investigate the role of wage vacancy contracts on welfare and competition

speculation incomplete currency market participation and nonfundamental movements in nominal and real exchange rates abstract this paper studies possible nonfundamental movements in nominal and real exchange rates arising from a world economy with speculation incomplete participation in international currency markets and nontraded goods the model is capable of generating equilibria which display comovements in nominal and real exchange rates not unlike those observed in actual economies

sources of meteor showers and heat waves in the foreign exchange market abstract we examine the role that news and heterogeneous expectations play in the persistence of exchange rate volatility or so called meteor shower effects our empirical focus is on the u s trade balance news which is shown to have a significant and persisting effect on the exchange rate and its conditional variance furthermore the impact of u s trade balance news is not isolated to the u s foreign exchange market the degree to which u s trade balance news affects other geographical market locations is functionally related to heterogeneous priors

market watch information and availability cascades among the media and investors in the u s ipo market in this study we advance current research on social influence in markets by examining how the recency and availability of information about others actions within and between different communities influence their allocation of attention and their evaluations specifically we examine how the media and investors allocate attention to and evaluate newly public firms in the days following their initial public offerings ipos our findings have implications for understanding the fieldwide processes through which the value of new firms is established in markets

short run employment functions when the speed of adjustment depends on the unemployment rate a bstratacross industry and country comparisons have found the speed of adjustment in short run employment functions to be positively related to the rate of unemployment the present paper develops a time series model in which the reaction coefficient varies with unemployment and estimates it for the manufacturing sectors of the eight oecd countries for which suitable data are available the new model is non linear and is estimated using full information maximum likelihood procedures application of the log likelihood ratio test finds that the new vanable reaction coefficient model is superior to the fixed reaction coefficient model for the united states canada australia austria ireland and the united kingdom

the effect of professional advice on the stability of a speculative market the paper is motivated by the apparent inconsistency of situations in which speculators rely heavily on relatively few advisers when theory and evidence indicate that market fluctuations are predominantly random and unpredictable a highly stylized model is used to show how such situations can arise if speculators choose advisers on the basis of observed track records and how block behavior and increased market instability can result it is argued that inferences based on track records may represent a confusion of luck with skill or more formally an inappropriate choice of null hypothesis to be tested other related issues are discussed

directed search and the bertrand paradox i study a directed search model of oligopolistic competition extended to incorporate general capacity constraints congestion effects and pricing based on ex post demand in the presence of any one of these ingredients the bertrand paradox fails to hold hence despite the emphasis that has been placed by the literature on sellers capacity constraints as a resolution to the paradox the existence of such constraints is only a subcase of a general class of environments where the paradox fails specifically bertrand s paradox will not arise whenever the buyers expected utility from visiting a seller is decreasing in that seller s realized demand

foreign currency deposits and the demand for money in developing countries abstract this paper examines the relative demands for domestic and foreign currency deposits by residents of developing countries a dynamic currency substitution model that incorporates forward looking rational expectations is specified and estimated for a group of ten developing countries the results indicate that the foreign rate of interest and the expected rate of depreciation of the parallel market exchange rate are important factors in the choice between holding domestic money or foreign currency deposits abroad furthermore the model appears to fit the data better than a conventional partial adjustment model

concentration and dispersion in global industries remote electronic access and the location of economic activities we explore how the possibility of remote electronic access to markets resources and knowledge enabled by the new information and communication technologies icts might change the motivations of firms to locate activities internationally and in turn affect worldwide dispersion and concentration in an industry preliminary results from an exploratory analysis of the spatial distribution of firms in financial services suggest that the introduction of a business to business b2b trading network increases the global market participation of firms from peripheral countries but does not appear to reduce the importance of locational clusters a set of propositions is derived that provide guidance for more detailed research on the impact of icts on the strategy and structure of global industries

market networks and corporate behavior data on market relations between a large population of corporations and investment banks are used to study the organization market interforce the pattern of direct market ties between a firm and its banks forms of interfaces range from a long term exclusive tie the relationship interface to many short lived episodic ties the transaction interface with hybrid forms between the two poles contrary to widespread belief the article finds that strong relationships still exist transactions interfaces are rare most firms use hybrid interfaces a firm s interface is conceptualized as the intentional result of its efforts to reduce dependence and exploit power advantages observed interfaces are shown to be related systematically to various power dependence concepts including resource intensity number of transactions and dollar amounts raised criticality the availability of resource alternatives power asymmetry between a firm and its main bank organization size standardization of exchange and

information diversity and market behavior the paper addresses two major issues raised by information diversity in a speculative market first we analyze what property of an investor s information leads to an expected speculative profit and show that independence is more important than accuracy second we consider whether the market price must become fully efficient in the sense that every investor s information is accurately discounted when traders use it rationally as an information source we prove that for any information structure there is a unique equilibrium weighting of investor beliefs at which the price is fully efficient and also every trader s expected profit is zero except for special structures however this equilibrium need not be attained in finite time much of modern capital market theory depends heavily on the assumption that investors know the expected values variances and covariances of asset returns although the assumption of homogeneous expectations is a conventional one and necessary for many theoretical results it is not one which can be offered with much confidence real world investors have access to differing information and may also disagree on the correct interpretation of widely held information when asset returns are assumed to be governed by a known probability distribution many features of trading in real world markets are eliminated from consideration there is no role for information gathering and no way for an investor to profit from having superior information indeed this term has no real meaning since all relevant information is contained in the known returns distribution speculative trading is also hard to explain without divergence of opinion a speculator who thought the market price impounded all available information would never trade against it with heterogeneous information we lose some of the neat results of standard capital market theory but new questions can be addressed about how information diversity among investors affects the markets in which they participate one issue concerns the impact of informational differences on investor profits investors who are better informed than others or are better able to evaluate widely held information should be able to earn higher returns all effort devoted to security analysis and market research depends on the belief that this is so but what makes one investor s information superior to another s beyond the circular observation that those investors with consistent profits must be better informed than those with losses do investors with inferior information however measured continually lose money until they are squeezed out of the market or can an

speculation optimism and differential information speculative trading has for quite some time been an important question for at least two reasons firstly as a positive question of whether speculative behavior basically is caused by differences in information or by differences in aversion to risk secondly the question is related to the informational efficiency of decentralized market systems if access to information not currently available to the market makes possible a speculative profit the incentive to acquire information may be too excessive from a social point of view the aim of this paper is to clarify the relationship between information and speculation in his seminal article on information acquisition in decentralized market economies hirshleifer 12 showed that the private value of acquiring information depends critically on the speculative profits to be made from this information hirshleifer 12 distinguished between information foreknowledge which affects productive decisions and information which only has implications for exchange similarly fama and laffer 5 distinguish between operational information which improves a firms operating decisions and trading information which only affects trading decisions it is argued due to the speculative profits to be made from having access to information not available to the market that there are excessive private incentives to acquire information without any relevance for productive decisions

information diversity and market behavior a reply professor minassian has raised technical points regarding my paper which for the most part seem to be well founded though not crucial to the basic results in this reply my objective will be to discuss what these mean in the context of the model and to offer slightly revised statements of theorems 1 and 3 to eliminate the problems equation 1 which duplicates equation 9 in 1 gives the following expression for the expected profits earned by trader i from trading in a pure speculative market

the demand for money a variable adjustment model abstract standard models of the demand for money employ the partial adjustment framework in which the adjustment parameter is specified as a constant over the entire sample period this paper relaxes this assumption the adjustment parameter is specified as a function of the short term interest rate the variable adjustment model is estimated using us quarterly data spanning the 1959 iii 1983 iv period and is found to reject the constant partial adjustment model

directed search and firm size standard directed search models predict that larger firms pay lower wages than smaller firms contrary to the data this article proposes one way to obtain this positive size wage differential in a directed search setting i posit that there is an optimal size associated with a firm a firm suffers a penalty by not operating at its optimal size i show that if this penalty is sufficiently large the size wage differential will be obtained my model also gives a new way to look at the data because it highlights the importance of the distinction between intended and realized firm sizes

integration of the sales force an empirical examination this article develops and tests a model of integration of a marketing function personal selling the model derived from transaction cost analysis as developed principally by williamson is formulated as a logistic function which is estimated with data from the electronic components industry as expected integration is associated with increasing levels of asset specificity difficulty of performance evaluation and the combination of these two factors contrary to the transaction cost model neither frequency of transactions nor interaction of specificity and environmental uncertainty is significantly related to integration the transaction cost model improves significantly upon the fit of a simple model relating integration to company size alone these results suggest that for studying transactions of this kind it is fruitful to view the firm as a governance structure

equilibrium wage dispersion and interindustry wage differentials this paper develops a search theoretic explanation of interindustry wage differentials given coordination problems in the labor market the probability of filling a vacancy is an increasing function of the wage offered in equilibrium firms that find vacancies more costly will offer higher wages the model thus explains the persistence of interindustry wage differentials and their correlation with industry average capital labor ratio and profitability additionally the model predicts that high wage firms will receive more applications per job opening and that wages in the labor market will behave as strategic complements

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

employment in the british coal industry a test of the labour demand model the authors test the conventional model of labor demand against the alternative that bargaining takes place over both wages and employme nt for a time series cross section data set covering the british coal industry they note the difficulty of identifying the contract curve under the alternative hypothesis and suggest the use of variables affecting the union and management status quo points as instruments for the endogenous wage they find that outside variables such as benefits and manufacturing wages are important in determining the level of employment thus rejecting the labor demand model copyright 1988 by royal economic society

exchange rate speculation and chaos inducing intervention abstract we show that in a market characterized by high volatility transactions designed to have a stabilizing effect may inadvertently induce chaos in the foreign exchange market for example excessive interventions by a central bank may lead to an increase in erratic behavior rather than to the calming of exchange rate movements

the dynamics of the liability of foreignness a global study of survival in financial services we study the impact of foreignness on survival in interbank currency trading worldwide over the period 1974 93 in particular we develop hypotheses on the behavior of the liability of foreignness over time and on the consequences of evolving sources of firm level competitive advantage on this liability we test these hypotheses on the population of 2667 market making trading rooms located in 47 countries worldwide that either existed in 1974 or entered the industry between 1974 and 1993 the results show that there is a liability of foreignness and that it changes over time further strategic and organizational factors such as the adoption of technology by these firms and their mode of internal control significantly influenced survival as did location related factors such as the intensity of local and foreign competition 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

the global configuration of a speculative trading operation an empirical study of foreign exchange trading this paper proposes a theory of firm boundaries based on fore knowledge development and exploitation in speculative or informed trading foreign exchange trading provides this study s empirical context from research on information economics we suggest optimal speculative trading operations are multiunit and globally dispersed alternatively transaction cost economics suggests atomistic actors prevail in the market for fungible commodities like currencies we also develop competing hypotheses about information technology s effects on foreign exchange trading operations speculation arguments predict that the global scope of trading operations will expand after the introduction of generic information technologies transaction cost economics proposes that when atomistic actors do not prevail trading operations will contract after this introduction we test competing predictions with models of the expansion contraction and net change in a firm s global dispersion we estimate these models with data from the population of banks worldwide engaged in interbank foreign exchange currency fx trading from 1974 to 1993 our results uncover two types of firms those that approach the atomistic actor of transaction cost economics and those that resemble the globally dispersed multiunit configuration from our speculation discussion these results encourage reflection on how the theory of the firm differs when firms trade to produce versus speculate

directed search and job rotation abstract we consider the impact of job rotation in a directed search model in which firm sizes are endogenously determined and match quality is initially unknown a large firm benefits from the opportunity to rotate workers so as to partially overcome the loss of mismatch as a result in the unique symmetric equilibrium large firms have higher labor productivity and lower separation rates in contrast to the standard directed search model with multi vacancy firms this model can generate a positive correlation between firm size and wage without introducing any ex ante productivity differences or imposing any non concave production function assumptions

international transmission of transitory and persistent monetary shocks under imperfect information abstract we analyze the transmission of monetary shocks in a new open economy macroeconomics model with one period nominal contracts and imperfect information shocks may have transitory and persistent components that can be disentangled only through the accumulation of information over time as a consequence the responses to shocks are significantly altered compared with the case of full information there are persistent effects on international relative prices and delayed exchange rate overshooting is possible following a persistent shock in some cases there are ex post excess returns as a positive interest rate spread is accompanied by an appreciating currency or vice versa lastly it is demonstrated that staggering reinforces persistence

an empirical analysis of ex ante profits from forward speculation in foreign exchange markets this paper constructs a time series band for ex ante profits from forward speculation and examines the permanent component of the median of the band for six different exchange markets the unpredictability of ex ante profits is rejected using nonparametric tests deviations of ex ante profits from forward premia are attributed to deviations of nominal exchange rates from martingale processes it is shown that movements in the terms of trade are responsible for most of the variability and serial correlation properties of ex ante profits t is by now widely recognized that the forward rate is not an unbiased predictor of future spot rates and that realized nominal profits from spec ulating in the forward market are nonnegligible and highly volatile see e g hodrick 1987 frankel and meese 1987 however the nature of these profits is as of yet undetermined this paper attempts to shed light on this issue by examining the time series properties of ex ante profits from forward speculations in six foreign exchange markets i focus on three aspects of the problem first i provide a measure of the range and the variability of ex ante profits two issues with contradictory evidence in the literature see hodrick 1987 and frankel 1988 for refer ences second i relate deviations from uncov ered interest parity to risk and to deviations of nominal spot rates from martingale processes third i link the time series properties of ex ante profits to the behavior of the real exchange rate since ex ante profits are not observable the empirical analysis requires the construction of a time series for the expected future spot rate frankel and froot 1987 ito 1988 cumby 1988 and diebold and nason 1990 have all suggested ways of computing this series here i provide an alternative method for constructing a time series for expected future spot rates and for statistically assessing the properties of ex ante profits expected future spot rates are measured as a 90 confidence band obtained from the simulated recursive distribution for the linear predictor of the series i simulate the distribution of the linear predictor rather than use simple point forecasts in order to reduce the forecast error due to parameter uncertainty an addi tional measure for expected future spot rates considered is a point estimate of the permanent component of the median of the band i use nonparametric tests to examine the rela tionship between ex ante profits and other series nonparametric tests are employed here for two reasons first i am interested in the entire popu lation properties of the data existing results are derived by examining only the first and second moments of the data second efficiency tests are generally based on linear parametric functional forms pagan and ullah 1988 have pointed out problems with these tests when the conditional mean of the data is nonlinear nonparametric tests overcome these problems the results indicate that nominal and real rates do not follow martingale processes that a risk premium rarely explains the behavior of the ex ante profits and that variations in expected terms of trade account for the time series proper ties of ex ante profits

luck versus forecast ability determinants of trader performance in futures markets statistical techniques are used to demonstrate that the fortunes of individual futures traders are determined by luck not forecast ability even though a large number of traders appear to exhibit significantly superior forecast ability the investigation strongly supports three conclusions there are fewer participants with significantly superior skill than expected if participants trade randomly there are more traders exhibiting no skill than expected if participants trade randomly and forecast ability is not correlated over time superior forecasters in the early period are only average forecasters in the later period therefore it is luck that determines trader performance copyright 1991 by university of chicago press

a theory of yes men this paper illustrates an incentive for workers to conform to the opinion of their supervisors when firms use subjective performance evaluation this desire to conform arises endogenously from the firm s need to induce the worker to exert effort the author shows that firms may optimally eschew the use of incentive contracts to retain workers incentives for honesty the author illustrates that the incentive to conform implies inefficiencies even when workers are risk neutral and is likely to lead to more centralized decision making than in the absence of the desire to conform copyright 1993 by american economic association

managerial prescriptions under the resource based view of strategy the example of motivational techniques working from the perspective of the resource based view of strategy this paper addresses whether academics consultants and other sources of general managerial prescriptions can affect firms long run rent streams the answer is affirmative to demonstrate this i discuss the use of motivational techniques as a well understood and common managerial choice that may affect a firm s chance of generating rents this paper interprets extant empirical research on goal setting and discusses the conceptualization of temporal rent patterns i build upon an empirical finding in goal setting research to compare the temporal patterns of rents for managerial choices embedded in path dependent vs path independent processes 1998 john wiley sons ltd

the salesperson as outside agent or employee a transaction cost analysis this descriptive study explores the reasons for integration of the personal selling function i e the use of employee direct salespeople rather than manufacturers representatives reps a hypothesized model is developed based on both transaction cost analysis and the sales force management literature data from 13 electronic component manufacturers covering 159 u s sales districts are used to estimate a logistic model of the probability of going direct in a given district results are shown to be stable across specification and estimation methods and to fit the data well the transaction cost model is generally supported the principal finding is that the greater the difficulty of evaluating a salesperson s performance the more likely the firm to substitute surveillance for commission as a control mechanism i e to use a direct sales force among other findings direct sales forces are also associated with complex hard to learn product lines and with districts that demand considerable nonselling activities several factors prove unrelated including company size the amount of travel a district requires and the importance of key accounts this article was originally published in marketing science volume 4 issue 3 pages 234 254 in 1985

a resource based theory of the firm knowledge versus opportunism this paper develops a resource based knowledge based theory of the firm its thesis is that the organizational mode through which individuals cooperate affects the knowledge they apply to business activity we focus on the polar cases of organization within a firm as compared to market contracting there will be a difference in the knowledge that is brought to bear and hence in joint productivity under the two options thus as compared to opportunism based transaction cost theory we advance a separate yet complementary answer to the question why do firms exist our aim is to develop an empirically relevant and complementary theory of why firms are formed a theory based on irreducible knowledge differences between individuals rather than the threat of purposeful cheating or withholding of information we assume limited cognitive abilities on the part of individuals bounded rationality and assume that opportunistic behavior will not occur the latter allows us to determine whether resource based

crossroads the organization of economic activity transaction costs firm capabilities and the nature of governance in a recent 1993 paper in organization science hennart discussed the underlying logic based on transaction cost and agency theory for explaining the choice between firms and markets and the reason why most transactions have both firm like and market like properties relying on williamson s comparative institutional approach which studies economic organization from a transaction cost minimizing point of view under the assumption of opportunism the argument was made that transaction cost tc logic provides a complete theory of the organization of economic activity in this paper i argue that with its purely incentive based logic governed by assumptions of opportunism tc economics is fundamentally incapable of being a complete theory of economic organization the notion of the firm as a bundle of transactions or contracts is an inadequate and shallow basis for a theory of the firm since it basically ignores the essential notion of the firm as a bundle of knowledge and the underlying processes there

the strategy of professional forecasting we develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters strategic behavior the first theory reputational cheap talk posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed the market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state if the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean with correct market expectations equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded the second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre specified rules in a winner take all contest equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated

the informational effects of restrictions on short sales some empirical evidence in a world of heterogeneous investors a competitive financial market has two major functions first it is the mechanism by which ownership of the existing supply of risky assets is distributed among investors this is the role which is analyzed in detail by the standard capital asset pricing model capm and its many extensions the second important market function is to aggregate the diverse information held by different investors into a single price most versions of the capm eliminate the information aggregation function by assuming that investors hold homogeneous beliefs with respect to the probability distribution of asset returns exceptions which deal with some aspects of the problem are lintner 7 grossman 4 grossman and stiglitz 5 and figlewski 1 3

testing the rationality of price forecasts new evidence from panel data this paper tests the rationality of individual price forecasts in a panel of professional forecasters here unlike in most previous studies rationality is not rejected the results here differ because 1 using individual forecasts avoids aggregation bias 2 comparison of forecasts to initial data avoids bias due to data revision 3 the professional forecasters have economic incentives to state their expectations accurately and 4 a new covariance matrix estimator consistent when forecast errors are correlated across individuals is used copyright 1990 by american economic association

when managers cover their posteriors making the decisions the market wants to see the stock market has opinions as to what choices firms should make we show that concern for current share prices may lead managers to make these choices rather than those suggested by their own superior information even when arbitrarily many privately informed firms have to make a similar decision the market s prejudices may still prevail we compare the distortions that arise from share price maximization with those due to herd behavior among profit maximizing firms and show that the former results in strictly less efficient use of information

wage vacancy contracts and multiplicity of equilibria in a directed search model of the labour market this paper studies a directed search model of the labour market which is standard in all aspects except two first we allow firms to post wage vacancy contracts advertising the number of workers they would pay as well as the payment all will receive second we consider two cases one where workers are risk neutral and one where workers are risk averse both in finite and large economies our paper shows that when firms post wage vacancy contracts whether workers are modelled as risk neutral or risk averse matters the types of symmetric equilibria and the nature of multiplicity of equilibria are different somewhat surprisingly when there are finite numbers of risk neutral workers and firms we obtain a finite number of symmetric equilibria but when workers are risk averse we obtain a continuum of equilibria furthermore our paper sounds a cautionary note on using large economies as an approximation of finite economies when workers are risk neutral the nature of equilibrium is preserved going from a finite to a large economy but the nature of equilibrium is different when workers are risk averse les contrats salaire emploi et la multiplicite des equilibres au sein d un modele de recherche dirigee applique au marche du travail cet article etudie un modele de recherche dirigee applique au marche du travail qui differe du modele standard en deux points premierement les entreprises peuvent proposer des contrats dits salaire emploi qui en plus du salaire indiquent le nombre de travailleurs qu un employeur est dispose a recruter deuxiemement nous considerons deux cas un ou les travailleurs ne presentent pas d aversion au risque et l autre ou ils sont averses au risque a chaque fois pour des economies avec une nombre fini puis infini d agents l article demontre que la presence ou non d aversion au risque a de l importance quand les entreprises peuvent proposer des contrats salaire emploi car les types d equilibres symetriques et la nature des multiplicites different dans les deux cas par exemple si l on considere une economie avec un nombre fini de travailleurs il existe un nombre fini d equilibres symetriques lorsque les travailleurs ne presentent pas d aversion au risque alors qu il en existe un continuum lorsque les travailleurs sont averses au risque qui plus est l article invite a la prudence en utilisant une economie a nombre infini d agents comme approximation d une economie peuplee d un nombre fini d agents car en allant de l une a l autre la nature des equilibres est preservee dans le cas de travailleurs ne presentant pas d aversion au risque alors qu elle change lorsque les travailleurs sont averses au risque

fat tails and volatility clustering in experimental asset markets abstract this paper presents results from experimental asset markets with asymmetric fundamental information we observe leptokurtic returns and a slowly decaying autocorrelation function of absolute returns in contrast to results from heterogeneous agent models hams we find that noise has no significant influence on the emergence of fat tails instead we observe a significantly positive relationship between the degree of heterogeneity of fundamental information and absolute returns which suggests that heterogeneous fundamental information is the source of fat tails with respect to volatility clustering we discover an intra periodical pattern where absolute returns decrease after the arrival of new asymmetric fundamental information

the vulnerability of price stabilization schemes to speculative attack this paper examines the effects of government attempts to stabilize the prices of commodities by use of buffer stocks agricultural goods subject to supply uncertainty as well as depletable resources are considered in each case it is shown that the resulting rational expectations competitive equilibrium contains a speculative attack a situation where the entire government stock is suddenly purchased by previously inactive speculators the analysis is applied to the historical attempt to peg the gold price which caused the attack of 1968 the insights gained and the methodology developed also apply to the various international agreements to impose bans on commodity prices which have been proposed by the united nations conference on trade and development

j shaped returns to timing advantage in access to information experimental evidence and a tentative explanation abstract the question of how useful information is in financial markets has been discussed for decades and is still unresolved in this paper we challenge the widely held belief that additional information is never a disadvantage we present results from experimental financial markets with asymmetrically informed traders in all treatments we conduct we find a j shaped distribution of returns while the best informed outperform all others average informed traders have significantly lower returns than the least informed this can mainly be attributed to trend reversals in the fundamental information prices in our markets do not reflect ree but rather naive trader equilibrium

momentary exchange rate locked in a triangular mechanism of international currency this study uses two way quoted data on major and nonmajor currencies to test the exchange rate dynamics particular attention is paid to the arbitrage and the spread in triangular foreign exchange trades there is only one possible triangle when a bilateral exchange rate equals its trilateral rate otherwise any third currency would potentially create arbitrage opportunities empirical testing evidence supports that small but possibly exploitable profitable arbitrage has significantly occurred over the very short haul of uncertainty and turbulence in other words we are convinced that the bilateral exchange rate could be diverged from one common currency side of the trilateral basket rates until markets function efficiently this helps in better explaining foreign exchange rate movements in addition we find that the currency correlating decreases slightly but the volatility increases over time as we expected

catching the wave alertness responsiveness and market influence in global electronic networks this paper introduces the concepts of alertness and responsiveness as key capabilities for firms in fast moving information intensive environments such as global currency trading hypotheses drawn from the resource based view of the firm from network theory and from austrian economics are tested on objective cross section and time series data for the population of 4 088 banks engaged in foreign exchange trading on the reuters dealing system results strongly support the hypotheses that banks that are alert i e use their information networks in ways that expand the range of information they are exposed to and responsive those that act quickly in volatile markets tend to exercise greater market influence in this industry

choice between disaggregate and aggregate specifications estimated by instrumental variables methods a choice criterion is proposed for discriminating between disaggregate and aggregate models estimated by the instrumental variables method the criterion based on prediction errors represents a generalization of criteria developed in the context of classical regression models the article also derives general tests for aggregation bias in the instrumental variables context the criterion and the tests are applied in an analysis of u k employment demand it is shown that a model disaggregated by 40 industries predicts aggregate employment better than an aggregate model and that significant biases exist in estimates of the long run wage and output elasticities obtained from the aggregate model

is more information always better experimental financial markets with cumulative information abstract we study the value of information in financial markets by asking whether having more information always leads to higher returns we address this question in an experiment where information about an asset s intrinsic value is cumulatively distributed among traders we find that only the very best informed traders i e insiders significantly outperform less informed traders however there is a wide range of information levels from zero information to above average information levels where additional information does not yield higher returns the latter result implies that the value of additional information need not be strictly positive

a framework linking intangible resources and capabilities to sustainable competitive advantage this article is concerned with the role of intangible resources in business strategy in particular it is concerned with identifying the intangible sources of sustainable competitive advantage sustainable competitive advantage results from the possession of relevant capability differentials regulatory and positional capabilities are concerned with intangible assets functional and cultural capabilities are concerned with competencies a framework linking intangible resources to capabilities has been devised and is used as the basis of a new technique for identifying the relative contribution which the different intangible resources make to competitive advantage the results of the use of this technique in six case studies are reported

econometric analysis of aggregation in the context of linear prediction models this paper deals with the problem of aggregation where the focus of the analysis is whether to predict aggregate variables using macro or micro equations the grunfeldgriliches prediction criterion for choosing between aggregate and disaggregate equations is generalized to allow for contemporaneous covariances between the disturbances of micro equations and the possibility of different parametric restrictions on the equations of the disaggregate model a new test is proposed of the hypothesis of perfect aggregation which tests the validity of aggregation either through coefficient equality or through the stability over time of the composition of the regressors across the micro units the tools developed in the paper are then applied to employment demand functions for the uk economy disaggregated by 40 industries firstly a set of unrestricted log linear dynamic specifications are estimated for the disaggregate equations and then linear parameter restrictions are imposed as appropriate corresponding unrestricted and restricted aggregate equations are estimated two different levels of aggregation are considered aggregation over the 23 manufacturing industries and aggregation over all 40 industries of the economy in both cases the hypothesis of perfect aggregation is firmly rejected for the manufacturing industries the prediction criterion marginally favors the aggregate equation but over all industries the disaggregated equations are strongly preferred

meteor showers or heat waves heteroskedastic intra daily volatility in the foreign exchange market this paper seeks to explain the causes of volatility clustering in exchange rates careful examination of intra daily exchange rates provides a test of two hypotheses heat waves and meteor showers the heat wave hypothesis is that the volatility has only country specific autocorrelation alternatively the meteor shower is a phenomenon of intra daily volatility spillovers from one market to the next using the garch model to specify the heteroskedasticity across intra daily market segments we find that the empirical evidence is generally against the null hypothesis of the heat wave using a volatility type of vector autoregression we examine the impact of news in one market on the time path of per hour volatility in other markets

information diversity and market behavior a comment in figlewski 1 the author construct s a model of a purely speculative market in which speculation on price changes is the only motive for trading and the return for investors as a group is zero even though each trader possesses information which he believes will allow him personally to make a profit p 90 lines 8 12 1 this zero sum game of commodity speculation is played over several successive periods in each period information is released the market opens and a market clearing price is established by tatonnement so that investors know what the market price pm will be before they trade and thereby obtain additional information about other traders estimates of p the ultimate endof period commodity spot price they use this information to update their expectations and all trading by the ith investor is ultimately based on forecasts conditioned on both 4ji trader i s information set and pm p 91 paragraph 2 of course investor i believes he has information that pm does not accurately reflect which will allow him to earn a speculative profit trading against the market p 91 paragraph 3 figlewski presents four theorems in his paper the major result of his paper is theorem 1

models of the multinational enterprise flexibility is identified as the hallmark of recent modelling of the multinational enterprise the focus on flexibility is a response to the rationalization and restructuring of international business which has occurred since the end of the golden age of western economic growth flexibility has been south in factor markets intermediate product markets and markets for final products it has been sought by both governments and firms flexible firms are attracted to locations with flexible host governments this article contrasts the modern research agenda based on flexibility with the more traditional research agenda which predominates in the literature reviewed by caves 1996

ex ante price offers in matching games non steady states a matching problem is considered in which sellers can publicly commit to a trading price that differs from the price at which buyers expect to trade elsewhere in the market when demand and supply are nearly equal the equilibrium ex ante price offer lies below the price associated with the nash bargaining split this relationship reverses when the level of excess demand is large sellers always have an incentive to make ex ante offers when prices elsewhere are determined by nash bargaining this can be interpreted to mean that nash bargaining is an unstable pricing institution copyright 1991 by the econometric society

circadian rhythms the effects of global market integration in the currency trading industry this essay assesses the impact of global market integration in the currency trading industry as the market interfaces with states with firms and with individuals and raises questions for research from a variety of disciplines issues discussed include the question of state control in global markets the impact of globalization on firm structures and processes how firms can derive competitive advantage from global circadian rhythms and the influences of the circadian rhythms of the global market on the individuals who work in this industry

directed search and optimal production abstract i consider a model of directed search where strategic sellers advertise general trading mechanisms a mechanism determines the number of buyers that will get served and the side payments as a function of ex post realized demand buyers observe these advertisements and visit one seller without being able to coordinate their visiting strategies despite the oligopolistic nature of the model all symmetric equilibria are constrained efficient in small markets multiple equilibria exist that are not payoff equivalent this indeterminacy vanishes as the market grows large i provide closed form solutions for equilibrium prices profits and the matching function under any parameter values

pricing and matching with frictions suppose that n buyers each want one unit and m sellers each have one or more units of a good sellers post prices and then buyers choose sellers in symmetric equilibrium similar sellers all post one price and buyers randomize hence more or fewer buyers may arrive than a seller can accommodate we call this frictions we solve for prices and the endogenous matching function for finite n and m and consider the limit as n and m grow the matching function displays decreasing returns but converges to constant returns we argue that the standard matching function in the literature is misspecified and discuss implications for the beveridge curve

product market and the size wage differential using directed search to model the product market and the labor market i show that large plants can pay higher wages to homogeneous workers and earn higher expected profit per worker than small plants although plants are identical except size a large plant charges a higher price for its product and compensates buyers with a higher service probability to capture this sizerelated benefit large plants try to become larger by recruiting at high wages this size wage differential survives labor market competition because a high wage is harder to get than a low wage moreover the size wage differential increases with the product demand when demand is initially low and falls when demand is already high

transaction cost economics in real time this paper attempts to place the theq of the boundaries of thejirm within the context of the passage of time more precisely it resurrects and places in a modem frame some of the insights of the chsical and marshallian theories of organization the modem reinterpretation of those theories centers around the capabilities view of the jirm taken together with governance costs the capabilities ofjirm and market determine the boundaries of the jirm in the short run ovw time capabilities change as firms and markets learn which implies a kind of information or knowledge cost the cost of trandewing the firm s capability to the market w vice versa these dynamic governance costs are the costs of persuading negotiating and coordinating with and teaching others they arise in the face of change notably txchnological and organizational innovation in fit they are the costs of not having the capabilities you need when you need them dynamic transaction costs provide an explanation for vertical integration that is arguably more general than those dominant in the literature in the face of uncertainty and divwgent views ofthe future common ownership of multiple stages of production is a supwior institutional arrangement for coordinating systemic change asset specrfity is neither necessary nor suffient for this to be true dynamic governance costs may also affit internal organization it may sometimes be costly in 3 terms of persuasion negotiation and teaching to create within the firm capabilities readily available on the market indeed in cases in which systemic coordination is not 4 the issue the market may turn out to be the superior institution of coordination in e 2 genwal the capabilities view of the jirm suggests that we look atfim2 and market as alternative and sometimes overlapping institutions of learning 1 transaction costs in the long rzln and the short 9 x classical and neoclassical perspectives

non fundamental speculation we study an intertemporal asset market where insiders coexist with non fundamental speculators non fundamental speculators possess no private information on fundamental values of assets but have superior knowledge about some aspect of the market environment we show that the entry of these rational speculators can lead to reductions in market liquidity and in the information content of prices even in an efficient market also equilibrium trades display patterns of empirical interest for example speculators appear to chase trends and lose money after market overreactions while insiders trade as contrarians and profit after such overreactions

who forecasts better this article suggests that the emphasis on forecast evaluations should be redirected from searching for best forecasters to finding those who are better a new methodology is developed and the results indicate that it is possible to identify better forecasters

market efficiency and natural selection in a commodity futures market while the literature usually justifies informational efficiency in the context of rationality this article shows informational efficiency by applying the evolutionary idea of natural selection in a dynamic futures market speculators are assumed to merely act upon their predetermined trading types buyer or seller their predetermined fractions of wealth allocated for speculation and their inherent abilities to predict the spot price reflected in their distributions of prediction errors with respect to the spot price this article shows that the proportion of time that the futures price equals the spot price converges to one with probability 1 article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

costly adjustment under rational expectations a generalization this note provides a generalization of the standard adjustment cost rational expectations model due to sargent 1978 which in addition to the cost of changing the level of the decision variable also allows for the cost of altering the speed with which decisions are changed it establishes the existence of a unique stable solution for this more general model derives an explicit solution for the underlying decision problem and provides a necessary order condition for identification of the structural parameters the note also contains an application of the model to the determination of employment in the u k coal industry over the 1956 83 period copyright 1991 by mit press

towards an economic theory of the multiproduct firm this paper outlines a theory of the multiproduct firm important building blocks include excess capacity and its creation market imperfections and the peculiarities of organizational knowledge including its fungible and taut character a framework is adopted in which profit seeking firms are seen to diversify in order to avoid the high transactions costs associated with using various markets to trade the services of various specialized assets neoclassical explanations of the multiproduct firm are shown to be seriously deficient

heterogeneous firms and the organization of production firms in the same industry exhibit systematic differences in the organization of production and the structure of employment entrepreneurial ability is the specific scarce input that limits the size of a firm this input must be allocated to two activities coordinating production and monitoring workers able entrepreneurs can convert calendar time into larger supplies of coordinating effort that enable them to assemble large firms greater ability implies a higher shadow price of time which increases the implicit costs of monitoring a dispersion of entrepreneurial abilities generates an equilibrium size distribution of firms differences in monitoring costs affect the choice of worker productivities the design of products and the organization of production the monitoring cost hypothesis advanced in this paper goes a long way in explaining the equilibrium of an industry containing heterogeneous firms that differ in size and behavior

intra day and inter market volatility in foreign exchange rates four foreign exchange spot rate series recorded on an hourly basis for a six month period in 1986 are examined a seasonal garch model is developed to describe the time dependent volatility apparent in the percentage nominal return of each currency hourly patterns in volatility are found to be remarkably similar across currencies and appear to be related to the opening and closing of the worlds major markets robust lm tests designed to deal with the extreme leptokurtosis in the data fails to uncover any evidence of misspecification or the presence of volatility spillover effects between the currencies or across markets

wage differentials employer size and unemployment the unique equilibrium solution to a game in which a continuum of individual employers choose permanent wage offers and a continuum of workers search by sequentially sampling from the set of offers is characterized wage dispersion is a robust outcome provided that workers search while employed as well as when unemployed the unique nondegenerate equilibrium distribution of wage offers is constructed for three cases 1 identical workers and employers 2 identical employers and an atomless distribution of worker supply prices and 3 identical workers and an atomless distribution of job productivities copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

an investigation of the determinants of manufacturing employment in the united kingdom in this paper we present and estimate an adjustment cost model of industry employment which takes explicit account of both expectations and aggregation over different labour types the resulting model is subject to a large number of tests and is a highly robust representation of the data finally forecasts are produced for manufacturing employment up to 1990

real effects of futures speculation asymptotically rational expectations to what extent does the diversity in the forecasting ability of futures speculators simply result in transfers of wealth among themselves and to what extent does it affect the allocation of resources on the basis of bayesian analysis it is assumed that the variance of forecast errors between the subjective and objective expectations of the subsequent price differs among groups two major conclusions are as follows 1 if given our parameter estimates the forecast error variance of the amateur speculators is less than six times that of the professionals then the existence of futures markets will lower the expected price to consumers increase expected output and lower the variance of the price 2 since small speculators lose to the professionals the relative variance of the forecast error of the amateurs to the professionals exceeds their relative weights as measured by the ratio of numbers to average risk aversion

information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy abstract this paper analyzes a general equilibrium model of a competitive security market in which traders possess independent pieces of information about the return of a risky asset each trader conditions his estimate of the return both on his own private source of information and price which in equilibrium serves as a noisy aggregator of the total information observed by all traders a closed form characterization of the rational expectations equilibrium is presented a counter example to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium is developed