poverty effects of food price escalation the importance of substitution effects in mexican households abstract recent food price increases reportedly caused significant numbers of households to fall into poverty particularly in the developing world most research into the welfare effects of these food price changes assumes constant demand or approximates second order substitution effects poverty forecasts with these assumptions may overestimate or underestimate the effect of food price increases in a nation where most households consume diverse food baskets we account for full substitution by calculating a theoretically consistent food demand system accounting for household responses to food price changes by decreasing some food purchases and increasing other food purchases we use mexican data to confirm the mitigation of adverse welfare effects from food price increases after accounting for country specific dietary preferences in modeling demand in comparison to previous literature our welfare measures predict theoretically consistent numbers of mexican households entering poverty due to recent food price changes

official and parallel cereals markets in senegal empirical evidence abstract senegal s experience with cereals market regulation grows out of a colonial legacy that accepts a preeminent role for the state as protector of producers and comsumers yet the reality of cereals market operation in senegal differs substantially from that specified in regulatory texts and satisfaction of certain performance objectives is achieved largely because of illegal parallel market activity involving violations of official rules and policies survey data collected in northern and central senegal provide valuable insights into the operation of a heterogeneous cereals marketing system made up of parallel channel marketing agents authorized private traders public sector marketing organizations and parastatals

smuggling and price disparity abstract this paper proposes a model of smuggling consistent with the coexistence of smuggling legal trade and price disparity defined as a domestic price which exceeds is less than the return from legal export import these phenomena have been found to characterize indonesian smuggling a framework is presented in which legal trade is used to cloak smuggling activity with the implication that the greater the volume of legal trade the less the costs of smuggling this model is then used to explain the observation noted above and to show that smuggling may be welfare increasing vis a vis the non smuggling situation and that even if the suppression of smuggling is costless tax revenue maximization may require a positive level of smuggling in addition the model is applied to coffee and rubber exports from indonesia

did the commodity price spike increase rural poverty evidence from a long run panel in bangladesh we assess the effects of the dramatic rise in agricultural commodity prices during 2007 2008 on income dynamics and poverty among rural households in bangladesh a unique panel data set allows us to put the effects of recent events in the context of long run trends in income and poverty we use data from a nationally representative longitudinal survey of rural households in bangladesh collected in four waves in 1988 2000 2004 and 2008 nargis and hossain nargis n hossain m 2006 income dynamics and pathways out of rural poverty in bangladesh 1988 2004 agric econ 35 425 435 analysed income dynamics and poverty incidence for the first three waves finding a declining trend in both the incidence and severity of poverty aided in particular by human capital development and off farm employment opportunities we update and extend the analysis to include data collected in 2008 at the height of a spike in agricultural prices we find that the price of a balanced food basket increased by more than 50 during 2000 2008 while household income rose only 15 as a result the incidence and severity of rural poverty in bangladesh sunk to pre 2000 levels during 2004 2008 thus the price spikes in 2007 2008 helped push an additional 13 million people into poverty in rural bangladesh moreover we find that the determinants of poverty have not been time invariant in particular agricultural production which had previously been associated with a higher incidence of poverty served as a hedge against higher food prices during 2004 2008

tricks with hicks the easi demand system we invent implicit marshallian demands which combine desirable features of hicksian and marshallian demands we propose and estimate the exact affine stone index easi implicit marshallian demand system like the almost ideal demand aid system easi budget shares are linear in parameters given real expenditures however unlike the aid easi demands can have any rank and its engel curves can have any shape over real expenditures easi error terms equal random utility parameters to account for unobserved preference heterogeneity easi demand functions can be estimated using gmm or three stage least squares and like aid an approximate easi model can be estimated by linear regression

the theory of taxation for developing countries tax policy has far reaching implications for economic development and public administration this book which presents a modern theory of public finance brings together many of the most distinguished economists who have written on the subject they provide coherent principles for tax design and a systematic framework for the analysis of practical questions of tax reform and pricing policy in developing countries the book is especially timely as countries experience increasing shortages of government revenue and the distortions brought about by poorly designed tax systems it pays particular attention to the special problems of developing countries such as the taxation of agriculture the aim throughout is to develop techniques that can be quantitatively applied given the data available and empirical case studies illustrate the methods in action the authors analyze the links between tax theory social cost benefit analysis and the pricing of publicly supplied goods and services they also explore the empirical and econometric problems of identifying the tradeoffs between equity and efficiency other topics treated include the analysis of labor markets the taxation of foreign private investment and of fuel and the pricing of education although the models used concentrate on developing countries most of the methods and discussion apply as well to the problems of more affluent countries

marketing margins and the welfare analysis of food price shocks abstract following the surge in world food prices of 2007 2008 there has been a revival of short run household welfare analysis that seeks to understand whether food price increases are beneficial or detrimental for households for a number of reasons including lack of data in some instances the short run analytical approach has embedded an assumption of equal percentage price changes for consumers and producers this assumption implies that food marketing costs change by the same percentage because an x percent change in both farm prices and consumer prices implies that there must also be an x percent change in their difference but this paper shows that most marketing costs are fixed not proportional and further that assuming proportional marketing costs leads to a bias towards finding negative impacts of higher food prices the magnitude of the bias is shown to be greater than that from failing to incorporate supply and demand responses to price changes and can be substantial relative to the effect estimated without incorporating the bias in addition the bias is not necessarily uniform across income classes thus failure to explicitly consider marketing margins has the potential to reverse the relative magnitudes of the impact on rich and poor

indirect tax evasion and product efficiency though a number of papers have considered the issues of income tax evasion few have considered indirect tax evasion one of the exceptions is a paper which considers the very special case of a risk averse monopolist producer the present paper addresses the issue of indirect tax evasion in competitive markets evasion in such a market is shown to be associated with production inefficiency the results also suggest that laffer type curves could arise due to evasion

black markets and optimal evadable taxation in a simple model of evadable indirect taxation some surprises emerge because of a market thinning effect of high prices high taxes induce multiple equilibria low price black markets and high price legal markets further evadability introduces a bifurcation to optimal taxation for less effective tax administrations the optimal tax system follows a cash cow pattern with one sector bearing all of the tax but for relatively effective administrations the optimum follows a slightly modified ramsey rule this discontinuity results from the mathematics of evasion incentives and may help explain tax reforms commonly seen over the course of economic development

revenue erosion through exemption and evasion in cameroon 1993 abstract the administration of tax statutes materially determines their economic effects a survey of cameroonian businesses a country seemingly typical of its economic level demonstrates widespread erosion of the tax bases paid by businesses through exemptions and evasion businesses seem willing to provide information on these potentially confidential activities the survey provides information on the number of businesses evading taxes or having exemptions on the characteristics of these businesses relative to others on whether businesses maintain information of use to the tax administration on the contacts between the administration and businesses affecting evasion and on penalties imposed by the administration

the transhipment problem smuggling and welfare in paraguay abstract this paper studies the effects of contraband on resource allocation and welfare using parguayan data a major portion of exports from this economy involves the transhipment of goods from third countries through paraguay to brazil and argentina to avoid trade taxes both explicit and implicit via quantitative restrictions and multiple exchange rates using international and paraguayan databases for 1990 we calculate that contraband accounted for 58 of exports and 31 of imports finally we estimate that such trade increased welfare by 2 1 of gdp

technology enhanced learning and higher education this article surveys current and emerging practice in technology enhanced learning in higher education the article uses disruptive innovation as a lens to examine technology enhanced learning disruptive innovation focuses on simple and convenient technologies which disrupt markets for existing goods and services the article argues that disruptive technologies are used frequently in higher education but also that students practise demarcation using different technologies to support their learning lives and their social lives the article further argues that current practice in technology enhanced learning has implications for the design and use of emerging technologies such as massive open online courses and emerging practices such as bring your own device and learning analytics as well as having implications for cost structures and for the future of higher education as a whole

optimal taxation with costly enforcement and evasion abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between optimal taxation and optimal tax enforcement a central question concerns the extent to which revenue should be raised through higher tax rates which distort behavior or greater enforcement which distorts behavior and also entails direct resource costs in the models examined some expenditure on enforcement may be optimal despite its resource cost its distortionary effect and the availability of other revenue sources having no enforcement costs rules for optimal tax rates and enforcement expenditures are derived which also indicate the marginal cost of government funds and optimal enforcement priorities for a tax collection agency

tax regimes tariff revenues and government spending this paper develops a model that describes the role of tariffs as a source of government revenue the model takes a public finance perspective and treats as part of the optimum revenue raising tax package relating the behavior of tariff rates and revenues to observable macroeconomic variables such as income and government spending although the approach is quite general the model is constructed to fit the stylized facts concerning the changing role of the tariff in u s history it is shown that relative collection costs for tariffs and other forms of taxes interact with changes in macroeconomic variables to explain the regime shifts qualitative changes in the relative importance of tariffs and other taxes found in u s tariff history copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

the corn price surge impacts on rural mexico summary we use an agent based general equilibrium model to explore the impacts of world corn price increases on land use and income in rural mexico in the model interactions among heterogeneous agents within a local context shape both macro and microeconomic outcomes results suggest that subsistence activities allowed agriculture to absorb the shock limiting the benefits of higher prices for the population while keeping deforestation pressures in check an estimated 5 7 corn area expansion by 2008 and wide variation across regions corresponds well with ex post reports agricultural growth led to 0 02 and 3 9 increases in real income for rural households and absentee landholders respectively

crossing the border does commodity tax evasion reduce welfare and can enforcement improve it this paper compares discrete equilibria in which consumers do and do not evade commodity taxes by making cross border purchases when the government faces a revenue requirement the comparison shows that border crossing reduces welfare if resources wasted by evasion exceed the benefit of consumption changes where these changes reflect lower prices across the border and induced changes in domestic tax rates enforcement reduces welfare if administrative and uncertainty costs outweigh the benefits of consumption changes and the reduction in resource costs the analysis shows that the welfare effect of evasion depends on how well designed the tax system is and how effective enforcement resources are in deterring border crossing

the effects of rising food prices on poverty in mexico we evaluate the impact of the rise in food prices during 2006 2008 on the poverty and extreme poverty rates in mexico we concentrate on the poor s consumption of staple foods and analyze the change in their consumption brought about by changed prices we also allow households receiving income from the farming and livestock sector to benefit from increases in prices of food products we find a modest increase in poverty using 2006 2007 prices however there is a daunting effect on the poor once the 2008 prices are taken into account after considering the positive effects of public policies announced in 2008 such as reduced taxes and tariffs on food products and greater subsidies to the extremely poor the poverty rate measured through consumption increases from 25 to 33 5 and the extreme poverty rate from 10 58 to 16 given the increase in food prices further analysis using the theory of optimal taxes suggests policies oriented towards relieving the food price pressure on the mexican poor should aim at lowering the prices of eggs vegetable oil milk and chicken

three bubbles and a panic an explanatory review of recent food commodity price events abstract this paper is a summary of the behaviour of food commodity prices in 2007 2008 and a review of the causes of the price increases extracted from a report to the chief scientific advisor to her majesty s government thirtle c piesse j 2008 an explanatory review of the world food commodity price events of 2007 2008 a report to the chief scientific advisor department for innovation universities and skills london the historical background shows that the price spike was much less severe than in the 1970s the conventional wisdom that prices of the main food commodities were falling prior to 2006 is questioned most ceased falling and were quite stable from the 1980s the paper separates the causes of the spike from the underlying changes driving the long run trends the literature on the causes of the spike is critically reviewed and summarised there is a reasonably broad consensus on most of the causes but much less on the impact of the depreciation of the us dollar there are also concluding speculations on the future

optimal trade taxes on agriculture in developing countries subsistence foodcrops and incomes are hard to tax in developing countries it is easy and common to tax agricultural imports and exports if domestic transactions cannot be taxed how should agricultural trade taxes be set and how should indirect taxes on nonagricultural consumer goods be set this paper derives and quantifies formulas for the optimal export tax on a nonfood agricultural product ghanaian cocoa in which the country has market power and the level of indirect taxes on taxable consumer goods it asks whether starting from free trade on cereals there should be import tariffs or subsidies copyright 1990 by royal economic society

the short run impact of import bans on poverty the case of nigeria 2008 2012 the nigerian government uses food import prohibition as part of policies that seeks to protect existing domestic producers and reduce the country s dependence on imports this paper argues that such policies have negative effects on net consumers of such products due to higher prices with 70 percent of poor households budget spent on food and about 13 percent of the total budget devoted to products subject to import bans poor households are vulnerable to such trade policies prices of some import prohibited food products are found to be higher than what they would be in the absence of such bans the elimination of import bans is estimated to reduce national poverty rates by as much as 2 6 percentage points

a theory of risk smuggling and welfare abstract this paper argues that the existing models of smuggling do not provide a proper treatment of risk the paper develops a smuggling model which is an application of james tobin s celebrated risk analysis to the smuggling situation the paper shows that a large number of existing key smuggling related results are fundamentally modified the paper then develops special cases using this properly specified risk model these special cases help identify the assumptions one needs to obtain results in the existing smuggling literature it is shown that the required assumptions for these results to hold are generally quite unrealistic

price controls and rent seeking behavior in developing countries abstract when the price of a good is controlled a nonprice allocation rule must necessarily be substituted for allocation by price examples are first come first served allocation which gives rise to rationing by waiting and allocation by an explicit system of ration coupons with rationing by waiting consumers are induced to pursue activities that economize on waiting costs such as buying a larger quantity per purchase although such responses are individually rational they are socially self defeating in the sense that they lower equilibrium consumer welfare rationing by coupons can avoid some but typically not all of these losses these ideas are developed with examples of model economies and their practical relevance is illustrated with evidence from developing countries

quadratic engel curves and consumer demand this paper presents a model of consumer demand that is consistent with the observed expenditure patterns of individual consumers in a long time series of expenditure surveys and is also able to provide a detailed welfare analysis of shifts in relative prices a nonparametric analysis of consumer expenditure patterns suggests that engel curves require quadratic terms in the logarithm of expenditure while popular models of demand such as the translog or the almost ideal demand systems do allow flexible price responses within a theoretically coherent structure they have expenditure share engel curves that are linear in the logarithm of total expenditure we derive the complete class of integrable quadratic logarithmic expenditure share systems a specification from this class is estimated on a large pooled data set of u k households models that fail to account for engel curvature are found ro generate important distortions in the patterns of welfare losses associated with a tax increase

the market for public office why the indian state is not better at development abstract how and why officials are transferred from one post to another can in india does have far reaching consequences for the effectiveness of public service organizations such as irrigation agriculture forestry and soil conservation departments the transfer mechanism used in many departments of indian states involves a kind of internal labor market a truer market than in the way that term is often used by labor market economists it allows pressures for corrupt behavior to bear down on the incumbents of certain posts and itself amplifies those pressures frequently the pressures on officials to be corrupt cause them to behave in ways contrary to the ostensible objectives of their departments why is the indian state not better at promoting development to an important degree because of the corruption transfer mechanism and its effects on bureaucratic initiatives