price distortions in agriculture and their effects an international comparison the central thesis of this paper is that agricultural pricing policies pursued by developing countries produce effects which are diametrically opposite to those produced by the pricing policies of many developed countries and that the policies of both are costly in terms of global welfare in general the agricultural sector in developing countries is heavily taxed while that in the developed countries receives substantial price protection the effects of agricultural price distortions on output consumption trade and rural employment are estimated for nine countries in addition the effects of price distortions on the distribution of income between producers and consumers on government revenue and foreign exchange and the net social losses of the policies are calculated the results indicate that there are large income transfers and impacts on migration from the rural to the urban sector in developing countries and from the urban to the rural sector in developed economies

the effects of devaluation on the trade balance a critical view and re examination of mile s new results abstract in a often cited article miles 1979 claims to have shown empirically the validity of the global monetarist proposition that devaluations do not affect the balance of trade this paper first uses mile s own framework of analysis to reveal serious deficiencies in his methodology and tests that cast doubt on the validity of his results in a respecified trade balance equation we show that devaluations do affect the trade balance in the traditionally predicted direction the pivotal difference between the two specifications arises from our inclusion of relative price effects and longer lag structure for the exchange rate variable

you can t save alone commitment in rotating savings and credit associations in kenya abstract this article examines one reason why individuals develop and maintain local level financial savings organizations known as rotating savings and credit organizations or roscas economic theories suggest that individuals form roscas to finance the purchase of a lumpy durable good in response to intrahousehold conflict over savings or to provide themselves with insurance the article proposes an additional hypothesis for rosca participation saving requires discipline and some roscas may be formed to provide a collective mechanism for commitment in the presence of time inconsistent preferences data from 70 roscas located in western kenya indicate that the commitment hypothesis is plausible and broadly consistent with the design and patterns of participation in these roscas as many rosca participants put it you can t save alone

group lending repayment incentives and social collateral abstract in this paper we investigate the impact on repayment rates of lending to groups which are made jointly liable for repayment this type of scheme especially in the guise of the grameen bank in bangladesh has received increasing attention we set up and analyze the repayment game which group lending gives rise to our analysis suggests that such schemes have both positive and negative effects on repayment rates the positive effect is that successful group members may have an incentive to repay the loans of group members whose projects have yielded insufficient return to make repayment worthwhile the negative effect arises when the whole group defaults even when some members would have repaid under individual lending we also show how group lending may harness social collateral which serves to mitigate its negative effect

on the transmission of world agricultural prices two questions are asked about the relationship between domestic prices and world prices of agricultural commodities are variations in world prices transmitted to domestic prices domestic prices are regressed on world prices in various forms taking into account the possible effects of exchange rates and inflation the empirical analysis is based on data from the food and agriculture organization of the united nations for 58 countries from 1968 78 and for the countries of the european community from 1961 85 the results show that most of the variations in world prices are transmitted and that they constitute the dominant component in the variations of domestic prices

implications of agricultural trade liberalization for the developing countries abstract the developing countries as a group could expect to experience only small welfare gains if they chose not to actively participate in agricultural trade liberalization and relied solely on the benefits of partial liberalization in the oecd countries participation along the lines of the dunkel package with the developing countries reducing positive assistance by less than the developed countries would yield gains of the order of us 20 billion more comprehensive participation in trade liberalization involving reductions of both positive and negative protection would almost triple these welfare gains while some developing countries do not gain from trade liberalization even with full participation the number of such countries and the magnitude of their losses are greatly reduced

rotating savings and credit associations the choice between random and bidding allocation of funds abstract the performance and efficiency of random and bidding rotating savings and credit associations roscas are compared within a game theoretic model information about individuals return from investing the rosca pool is assumed to be asymmetric and imperfect and rosca members are allowed to use funds raised outside the rosca to supplement the funds raised in the rosca the conclusion is that although both types of roscas can improve individual welfare the bidding rosca is preferred to the random rosca except when credit from other sources is costly and types of rosca members are not widely dispersed

the economics of roscas and intrahousehold resource allocation this paper investigates individual motives to participate in rotating savings and credit associations roscas detailed evidence from roscas in a kenyan slum nairobi suggests that most roscas are predominantly composed of women particularly those living in a couple and earning an independent income to explain this phenomenon we propose an argument based on conflictual interactions within the household participation in a rosca is a strategy a wife employs to protect her savings against claims by her husband for immediate consumption the empirical implications of the model are then tested using the data collected in kenya

market integration and price transmission in consumer markets of developing countries abstract world prices for agricultural commodities surged in 2006 08 and then again in 2011 12 in many developing countries consumer prices for staple foods such as bread and rice mirrored these movements this paper examines whether prices in urban consumer markets within developing countries are co integrated with prices in world agricultural commodity markets using a single equation error correction model we examine the response of consumer prices for wheat rice maize and sorghum to changes in world market prices and exchange rates in urban centers of the developing world analyzing over 60 country commodity pairings we find that developing countries consumer markets are co integrated with world markets yet we also find that the transmission of changes in both world prices and real exchange rates to domestic consumer prices is not high and that the movement of domestic consumer prices to new equilibrium with world prices after a shock to the latter is relatively slow

lessons from the kibbutz on the equality incentives trade off the first kibbutz was established southwest of the sea of galilee in 1910 but the vast majority of kibbutzim were established in the 1930s and 1940s shortly before the creation of the state of israel in 1948 founders aimed to create a new human being who cared about the group more than about himself a homo sociologicus who would challenge the selfish homo economicus this idealistic view can explain many of the key features of kibbutzim equal sharing in the distribution of income no private property a noncash economy communal dining halls where members ate their meals together high provision of local public goods for use by kibbutz members separate communal residences for children outside their parents homes which were supposed to free women from their traditional role in society and allow them to be treated equally with men collective education to instill socialist and zionist values communal production whereby kibbutz members worked inside their kibbutzim in agriculture or in one of the kibbutz plants and no use of hired labor from outside kibbutzim because hiring labor was considered exploitation under the reigning socialist ideology to an economist steeped in thinking about incentives that self interested individuals face there are three reasons why an equal sharing arrangement of this sort seems unlikely to last first high ability members have an incentive to exit equal sharing arrangements to earn a wage premium so called brain drain second low ability individuals have an incentive to enter equal sharing arrangements so that they can be subsidized by more able individuals so called adverse selection third in context of equal sharing shirking and free riding are likely to be prevalent however kibbutzim have survived successfully for the past century and currently consist of 120 000 members living in 268 kibbutzim in a number of ways the kibbutzim offer an exceptional environment to examine the potential trade off between equality and incentives

the global food crisis and guatemala what crisis and for whom summary international food prices rose sharply during 2006 08 precipitating the global food crisis we analyze the welfare effects of changes in prices over categories of households in guatemala and find three surprising results the first is that the transmission of international into domestic prices was quite modest the second is that most farm households are net buyers of food implying that they lost from rising prices the third is that farm households represent two thirds of all poor households losing from rising food prices stressing the importance of production for home consumption in sheltering the poor from the crisis

spurious tests and sign reversals in international economics empirical tests of numerous theories in international economics e g the monetary explanation of the balance of payments exchange rate the portfolio balance model of capital flows purchasing power parity and covered interest rate arbitrage usually impose the subtractive linear constraint that corresponding foreign and domestic explanatory variables have equal but opposite effects on the dependent variable rasulo and wilford 15 investigate empirically the bias in general caused by such a restriction in monetary models of the balance of payments exchange rate 2 what is not recognized however is the peculiar nature and potential severity of the bias including sign reversals which results from subtracting as opposed to aggregating explanatory variables and the wide range of tests in international economics which may be spurious because of this type of bias

the relationship between bilateral and multilateral models of exchange rates abstract bilateral specifications of exchange rate models are expedient and widely used but their appropriateness in a multilateral world has not been examined formally this paper demonstrates that bilateral specifications are appropriate if i cross exchange rates are consistent ii multilateral weights are symmetric iii exchange rates are linear functions of domestic and foreign variables and iv coefficients on corresponding domestic and foreign variables are equal but opposite in sign conditions i iii and iv are common assumptions and evidence suggests that condition ii is met in approximate terms among most of the g 7 countries with the exceptions involving canada and japan

the family as an incomplete annuities market families can self insure against uncertain dates of death through implicit or explicit agreements with respect to consumption and interfamily transfers interfamily transfers need have nothing to do with altruistic feelings they may simply reflect risk sharing behavior of completely selfish family members although family annuity markets are incomplete even small families can substitute by more than 70 percent for perfect market annuities given adverse selection and transaction costs family risk pooling may be preferred to public market annuities in the absence of public annuities these risk sharing arrangements provide powerful incentives for marriage and family formation

roscas as financial agreements to cope with self control problems abstract we consider a model in which people with limited self control can sign binding financial agreements among themselves thereby forming coalitions we show that these financial agreements may help them to alleviate their self control problems we then demonstrate that there exists a stable structure of coalitions in which people form rotating savings and credit associations roscas we therefore provide a behavioral rationale for one of the most prevalent and puzzling financial institutions in developing countries finally we derive and discuss some empirical predictions

roscas in urban ethiopia are the characteristics of the institutions more important than those of members abstract using household data from urban ethiopia we provide an empirical test of the economic theory of rotating savings and credit associations roscas and identify the impact of roscas and member characteristics on participation and volume of saving unlike other studies we account for the endogeneity of all rosca variables muslims individuals who live in richer households the self employed private sector employees and households with large numbers of women are more likely to join roscas a robust finding is that the savings are significantly affected by the characteristics of the members but not that of the informal saving institution some policy implications are discussed

rosca composition and repayment evidence from taiwanese bidding roscas abstractrotating savings and credit associations roscas are widespread and remain a key financial management tool for poor individuals we analyse data from taiwanese bidding roscas and focus on how social relationships within the group influence contribution behaviour and rosca failure we find that less socially connected participants were more likely to receive the pot early in the cycle which increases their incentive to default yet contrary to accepted wisdom groups including more outsiders were not more likely to experience repayment problems our results highlights how bidding roscas can be a versatile device that provide profitable savings while allowing for emergency credit

commercial policy variability bindings and market access abstract protection unconstrained by rules often varies substantially over time rules based disciplines such as wto tariff bindings and bindings on market access in services constrain this variability we examine the theoretical effects of such constraints on the expected cost of protection and offer a formalization of the concept of market access emphasizing both the first and second moments of the distribution of protection as an illustration we provide a stylized examination of uruguay round bindings on wheat

effects of macroeconomic policies on sectoral prices the effect of macroeconomic policies on the relative prices of internationally traded and domestic goods has been the subject of extensive study analysis of the way in which these policies then affect prices at the sectoral level is complicated by the beterogeneity of sectoral production even the prices of single products usually are determined by both domestic and traded components we present a framework which first traces the influence of macropolicy on the relative prices of exports imports and home goods it then accounts for each sector s degree of tradability which is based on the importance of trade in sectoral income and the influence of macroeconomic policy on sectoral prices to illustrate the use of this approach it is applied to a simulation of trade liberalization in argentina our results suggest that economywide policies had substantial negative effects on both the real exchange rate and the incentives to agricultural exports in an open economy the prices of tradable products are determined by world prices nominal exchange rates and taxes the prices of products which are not tradable are determined by domestic supply and demand which are themselves influenced by the actions and policies of the government some very important economic decisions depend on the price of tradables relative to that of nontradables the real exchange rate we examine here the way in which broader government policies affect the real exchange rate and through it prices at the sectoral level

now or later the allocation of the pot and the insurance motive in fixed roscas abstract we start from the observation that in fixed roscas in sub saharan african members often prefer to take the last turn we argue that when exchanges of turns are allowed during a cycle a late turn allows to request the pot when an urgent need arises survey data indicate that insurance needs are critical in determining the preferred position of rosca members we develop a theoretical model to formalize the argument and show that the preference for the last position requires that the probability of a shock is neither too low nor too high we test this prediction in a lab in the field experiment and confirm that the preference for being last is non monotonic in the risk of negative shocks

the role of roscas lumpy durables or event insurance abstract the stylised representation of roscas in recent theoretical work as a device driven by impatience for lumpy consumer durables misses the important insurance role of this pervasive informal financial institution in the developing world that insurance role explains why roscas with concurrent bidding are the dominant means of determining the sequence and pricing of allocations in roscas so structured the recipient and the implied interest rate for each period s allotment are determined by competitive bids at the time of distribution we use an example of an actual bidding rosca to demonstrate the extent of unpredictable needs for funds as reflected in the volatility of interest rates implicit in winning bids

the economics of rotating savings and credit associations supported by the center for energy policy studies m i t and the japanese corporate associates program at the kennedy school of government

private information and altruism in bidding roscas this article studies how altruism improves allocations in a private information environment where strategic behaviour reduces economic welfare a theoretical analysis establishes that in an environment characterised by uncertainty and private information outcomes of auctions in rotating savings and credit associations roscas are more efficient when bidders preferences are altruistic rather than selfish a semi parametric structural estimation technique for rosca auctions is presented a parametric structural estimation identifies interactions between group characteristics and bidder altruism it is found that effective leadership and intra group diversity are associated with a greater extent of bidder altruism and thus more efficient intra rosca allocations

the political economy of agricultural protection east asia in an international perspective kym anderson and yujiro hayami allen and unwin australia japan research centre australian national university london sydney boston 185 pp

exchange rate alignment and producer support estimates pses for india this article examines the effects of exchange rate alignment during 1985 2002 on agricultural producer support estimates pses for india based on several time series techniques the equilibrium exchange rate of the indian rupee and the corresponding misalignment of the actual rate are estimated and applied to recent pse calculations our results show that the exchange rate was substantially misaligned before a financial crisis and macroeconomic reform in the early 1990s with subsequent indirect effects on the pses we find a relatively high pass through of exchange rate movements to domestic agricultural prices so that removal of the exchange rate misalignment would have improved incentives to indian farmers during this period more recently this indirect exchange rate effect is smaller than the direct effect in the pses indicating the dominance of sectoral specific policies over economy wide policies

rotating savings and credit associations when participants are risk averse we model rotating savings and credit associations roscas among risk averse participants who experience privately observed income shocks a random rosca is not advantageous whereas a bidding rosca is if temporal risk aversion is less pronounced than static risk aversion the payoff scheme of a bidding rosca facilitates risk sharing in the presence of information asymmetries the risk sharing performance of a simple arrangement where a group of homogenous individuals runs several bidding roscas simultaneously is as good as that of a linear risk sharing contract and is more enforceable because it carries a fixed rather than a variable contribution

saving in developing countries theory and review in the literature on economic development much of the interest in saving has been focused on the relation between saving and growth but saving is not only about accumulation it is about smoothing consumption in the face of volatile and unpredictable income and helping to ensure the living standards of poor people whose lives are difficult and uncertain this paper develops a model of households which cannot borrow but which accumulate assets as a buffer stock to protect consumption when incomes are low such households dissave as often as they save do not accumulate assets over the long term and have on average very small asset holdings but their consumption is markedly smoother than their income much of the evidence is as consistent with this view of saving as it is incosistent with standard views of smoothing over the life cycle and with explanations of the link between saving and growth in terms of life cycle saving behavior consumption smoothing is also a useful way of thinking about government policy where volatility in the world prices of taxed commodities can generate sharp fluctuations in government revenues as well as reallocations of revenue between the private and public sectors many important policy issues in developing countries hinge on issues of consumption and smoothing and research on these issues is currently likely to be more productive than work on the relation between saving and growth

the impact of kinship networks on the adoption of risk mitigating strategies in ethiopia the adoption of certain farm management practices such as tree planting and soil and water conservation can reduce exposure to weather shocks however in many countries the adoption of such risk mitigating measures is far from complete we explore how risk sharing networks in the form of kinship characterized by the moral imperative of within group sharing affects the adoption of risk mitigating activities in rural ethiopia we find suggestive evidence that compulsory sharing invites free riding and attenuates incentives for self protection against weather shocks we also find evidence of the existence of a possible substitution effect between credit and social networks

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains