stabilizing inflation in the open economy optimal monetary policy in the open economy continues to be of interest to the profession as in benavie and froyen 1 and price level stabilization has been investigated by bradley and jansen 4 marquis and cunningham 13 and fischer 6 among many others price level stabilization has also been investigated in the monetary policy literature by for example black 2 or black and gavin 3 the academic literature has included analysis of price level stabilization in a variety of macroeconomic frameworks ranging from overlapping generations models to equilibrium business cycle models and keynesian contracting models what has been lacking however is a rigorous analysis of price level stabilization in the open economy this apparent omission is interesting because the most famous historical application of price level targeting occurred in the 1930s in sweden a small open economy in this paper we carefully examine the effectiveness of price level or inflation stabilization in the small open economy 2 employing an equilibrium business cycle model with differentially informed agents we find that when shocks to the economy exhibit some persistence inflation stabilization has favorable output stabilization properties relative to alternative monetary policies further these beneficial aspects of inflation stabilization exist whether or not agents contemporaneously observe the money stock the only instance in which inflation stabilization policy is not preferred is when all shocks to the economy are strictly temporary shocks and when uninformed agents can not observe the money stock contemporaneously finally in all instances we find that price level stabilization is preferred from a macroeconomic stabilization perspective to exchange

us monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices abstract using a structural var svar model we examine the effects of the monetary policy of the united states on sectoral commodity prices including the non fuel commodity prices food prices beverage prices prices of agricultural raw materials prices of metals and prices of fuel energy commodities and macroeconomic activity the empirical evidence suggests that a u s monetary contraction leads to an immediate rise in the broad commodity price index which possibly reflects an aggregation bias greater expected inflation and speculation high production costs or some overshooting due to overreactions then the response erodes after six quarters as the positive interest rate shock vanishes and higher interest rates and liquidity drainage take traction despite this the aggregate price response masks the existence of significant heterogeneity in the price responses of the different types of commodity sectors more specifically a positive interest rate shock leads to i an initial pop in the price returns of the non fuel commodities which later reverses path and becomes negative as in the case of the prices of agricultural raw materials ii a positive and persistent rise in the volatile food prices iii a fall in the beverage prices and iv a persistent reduction in the prices of metals and the prices of energy prices our results also remain globally intact with respect to alternative specifications and identification schemes as well as to unconventional monetary policy effects similar results are also found when commodity futures prices are used we conclude that policymakers should recognize the source of sector inflation before embarking on contractionary monetary policy the design of core inflation targeting is also preferable to headline inflation targeting

monetary policy and oil price shocks empirical implications of alternative responses large swings in the price of oil which have occurred during tha past two decades have substantially affected us inflation unemployment and economic growth in the light of those experiences a debate has arisen over how monetay policy should respond this study contributes to that debate by evaluating empirically the economy s performance under three realistic monetary policy response rules by doing so it advances what has largely been a theoretical discussion the policy rules studied money growth targets nominal gdp growth targets and interest rate targets are evaluated by estimating how closely the resulting economic outcomes approximate an optimal outcome the optimal outcome arises when the fed follows a well defined optimal response rule of the three strategies a nominal gdp target is found to be mose desirable while an interest rate target is least desirable

biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism abstract this article studies the capacity of biofuels to reduce motor fuel price fluctuations for this purpose we study dependence between crude oil and biodiesel blend prices in spain copula models are used for this purpose results suggest that the practice of blending biodiesel with diesel can protect consumers against extreme crude oil price increases

in defense of base drift the federal reserve has been criticized for allowing the base from which it calculates its target growth paths for the monetary aggregatesto drift from year to year in response to past deviations from target drift in the base implies that target misses permanently affect the levels of the monetary aggregates using a simple theoretical model this paper shows that the optimal degree of base drift consistent withprice stability depends on the importance of permanent versus transitory income and velocity disturbances neither zero base drift nor complete base drift are likely to be compatible with price stability copyright 1986 by american economic association

modelling the link between commodity prices and exchange rates the tale of daily data this paper examines daily data on exchange rates and the prices of three commodities traded on the winnipeg commodity exchange the temporal patterns of commodity prices and exchange rates are shown to be similar daily data are significantly non normal with garch models capturing the processes generating the data commodity prices and exchange rates are examined for cointegration using recent tests proposed by johansen and juselius 1990 currency depreciation is shown to granger cause commodity price inflation this information might be useful to central bankers concerned with reducing general price inflation through targeting commodity price inflation it also suggests that macro events have important effects on commodity markets in canada

targeting rules for monetary policy abstract we develop a framework for the analysis of targeting rules for monetary policy derive the optimal money supply rule and use an explicit criterion to evaluate the relative desirability of other targeting rules governing the money supply process

money income prices and interest rates including data from the 1980s sharply weakens the postwar time series evidence indicating significant relationships between money however defined and nominal income or between money and either real income or prices separately focusing on data from 1970 onward destroys this evidence altogether evidence indicating cointegration of real income and real money balances with due allowance for the effect of interest rates also deteriorates when the sample extends through the 1980s a positive finding is that the spread between the commercial paper rate and the treasury bill rate consistently contains highly significant information about future movements in real income copyright 1992 by american economic association

money stock targeting base drift and price level predictability lessons from the u k experience abstract it is controversial whether money stock targeting without base drift i e following a trend stationary growth path makes the price level more predictable in the presence of permanent shocks to money demand we develop a procedure that is not subject to the lucas critique applying this procedure to the case of the u k we find that the variance of the trend inflation rate in the u k would have been reduced by more than one half if the bank of england had not allowed base drift

the equilibrium degree of transparency and control in monetary policy we examine a central bank s endogenous choice of degree of control and degree of transparency under both commitment and discretion we argue that discretion is the more realistic assumption for the choice of control and that commitment is more realistic for the choice of transparency for the choice of control under discretion maximum degree of control is the only equilibrium for the choice of transparency under commitment a su ciently patient bank with su ciently low average in ation bias will always choose minimum transparency thus a maximum feasible degree of control with a minimum degree of transparency is a likely outcome the bundesbank and the federal reserve system are arguably examples of this jel classi cation e52 e58

interest rate smoothing and price level trend stationarity abstract this paper discusses the definition and mechanics of central bank interest rate smoothing under rational expectations a tension arising between interest rate smoothing and macroeconomic stabilization objectives induces non trend stationary price level and money stock behavior the paper thereby helps explain why such nominal non stationarities are widely observed further implications are drawn for base drift distribution of real returns on long term fixed rate nominal debt and operating characteristics of interest rate pegs and policy instruments

commodity price changes and the predictability of economic policy uncertainty in this study we forecast economic policy uncertainty epu using input on 23 commodity price changes we reveal the significant predictability of epu using three forecast combinations this indicates that commodity price changes can be taken as a leading indicator of epu

union egalitarianism as income insurance it is a common observation that unions often try to compress the wage distribution among their members as compared with the productivity distribution a troublesome aspect of standard theories of redistributive unions is the question why high productivity workers choose to enter the union in the first place this paper develops and explores the implications of an alternative insurance rationale for egalitarian wage objectives apart from providing a simple explanation of why heterogeneous union members may agree on egalitarian wage policies it also suggests a more guarded attitude toward the welfare costs of pay compression copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

activist monetary policy under rational expectations the purpose of this paper is to argue that the pursuit of an activist monetary policy may make economic sense even when people s expectations are formed rationally the paper presents a simple model in which 1 prices are costly to adjust 2 there is uncertainty concerning the parameters affecting aggregate demand and 3 there are positive costs of gathering and processing information by reference to this model it can be shown that an activist monetary policy may or may not be useful in offsetting aggregate disturbances depending upon the extent of information costs and of parameter uncertainty

taxation and the structure of labor markets the case of corporatism we propose an explanation for the wide variation in rates of taxation across developed economies based on differences in labor market institutions in corporatist economies which feature centralized labor markets taxes on labor input will be less distortionary than when labor supply is determined individually since the level of labor supply is set by a small group of decision makers these individuals will recognize the linkage between the taxes that workers pay and the benefits that they receive labor tax burdens are indeed higher in more corporatist nations while nonlabor taxes are actually lower there is also some evidence that the distortionary effects of labor taxes are lower in more corporatist economies

monetary policy theory and practice in respect of the theory of monetary policy i am reminded of the comment that jacob viner made many years ago at a meeting of the american economic association about alfred marshall s economics what is new is highly unlikely at this late date also to be true and significant 1 consequently i shall restrict my remarks on theory to trying to summarize what i regard as the present intellectual position

cointegration results of farm incomes and production costs in us agriculture this study analyses the dynamic relationships between farm incomes and production costs in the us agricultural industry by applying the cointegration technique the results provide evidence of long run equilibrium relationships between cash marketings and production costs however the results do not show such relationships between total revenues which include cash marketings and government payments and production costs chief conclusions of this study are that if market forces alone were to guide farmers decisions one could expert long run equilibrium relationships between the cash receipts and costs however government interventions seem to disrupt this equilibrium the results also suggest that production costs can be forecast using cash marketings which are found to be weakly exogenous the error correction model and vector autoregression model are used to estimate and compare simulation performances of the cointegrated system of cash marketings and production costs

price level targeting vs inflation targeting a free lunch price level targeting without base drift and inflation targeting with base drift are compared under commitment and discretion with persistence in unemployment price level targeting is often said to imply more short run inflation variability and thereby more employment variability than inflation targeting counter to this conventional wisdom under discretion a price level target results in lower inflation variability than an inflation target if unemployment is at least moderately persistent a price level target also eliminates the inflation bias under discretion and as is well known reduces long term price variability society may be better off assigning a price level target to the central bank even if its preferences correspond to inflation targeting a price level target thus appears to have more advantages than commonly acknowledged

announcements inflation targeting and central bank incentives this paper studies the incentives a central bank faces in announcing inflation targets when the central bank has private information about the economy and the public is uncertain about the central bank s preferences targeting rules in the absence of announcements reduce the inflationary bias of discretionary policy but they distort the central bank s response to private information about the economy this distortion is eliminated when the central bank is allowed to announce the inflation target announcements also affect credibility although the way they do so depends on the exact definition of credibility that is employed in standard models of monetary policy in which dynamic inconsistency plays a prominent role announcements from the central bank about its policy inten tions are not believable the central bank has an incentive to lie yet central banks often do make announcements and they are legally required to do so in some cases the bank of england for example must issue periodic inflation reports the chairman of the federal reserve is required by the humphrey hawkins act to testify before congress twice each year to explain the fed s policy actions and to detail the fed s outlook for future economic develop ments similarly the reserve bank of new zealand is required under the reserve bank act of 1989 to publish policy statements that spell out its plans the january 1994 legislation governing the banque de france requires its gov ernor to appear before parliament and the european central bank must under the maastricht treaty report at least annually to the european parlia ment if public statements about policy intentions are not credible the question naturally arises as to why central banks are frequently required to make them the answer of course is that announcements do provide the public with some information given the growing interest in policy transparency particu larly among those central banks that have adopted some form of inflation targeting it is perhaps surprising that there has been relatively little explicit analysis of how inflation targeting requirements might combine with reporting requirements to influence the informational content of announcements the conduct of stabilization policies and the central bank s credibility the purpose of this paper is to analyse the way inflation targeting affects the incentives the central bank faces in announcing targets when the central bank has private information about the economy and the public is uncertain about the central bank s preferences inflation targeting has seen increased popularity in recent years but a fixed target for inflation is generally suboptimal in the face of supply shocks while state contingent targets are viewed as not feasible an important result of this paper is that allowing the central bank to announce its own inflation target

country characteristics and the incidence of capital income taxation on wages an empirical assessment this paper examines the incidence of corporate income taxes on wages using data from the us bureau of labor statistics for 13 oecd countries within a wage bargaining framework our econometric analysis shows that a substantial share of the corporate tax burden is shifted from capital to labour however the magnitude of this shift is influenced importantly by country characteristics affecting the process of wage determination such as the degree of capital mobility a country s relative influence over the world price of output and trade unions strength

dynamics of oil price precious metal prices and exchange rate this study examines the co movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals gold silver platinum and palladium oil price and the us dollar euro exchange rate we find evidence of a weak long run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run the spot precious metal markets respond significantly but temporarily to a shock in any of the prices of the other metal prices and the exchange rate furthermore we discover some evidence of market overreactions in the palladium and platinum cases as well as in the exchange rate market in conclusion whether there are overreactions and re adjustments or not investors may diversify at least a portion of the risk away by investing in precious metals oil and the euro policy implications are provided

the welfare state and competitiveness in all industrial countries fiscal policy is increasingly about redistribution in this paper the authors study redistribution across different types of agents in a world characterized by the presence of labor unions and distortionary taxation they show that an increase in transfers financed by distortionary taxation has nonlinear effects on unit labor costs relative to the other countries depending on the degree of centralization of the wage setting process in the labor market the authors find considerable empirical support for the model in a sample of fourteen oecd countries copyright 1997 by american economic association

supply shocks wage stickiness and accommodation the key issue in the supply shock literature that developed after the 1973 74 oil and food price shocks was whether to accommodate l there is of course nothing to be done about the reduction in the equilibrium level of output caused by the supply shock but twice in the 1970s supply shocks resulted in output falling below its potential level the question discussed in the supply shock literature and taken up here is whether government policy is either responsible for or can offset the fall in the level of output to below its potential level i also discuss the costs and benefits of alternative policy responses to a supply shock it will be seen that the basic issues are precisely those that arise in considering activist policy in general the paper opens by discussing optimal responses to a supply shock in a one sector model these would be observed if markets cleared at all times in section 2 i examine the behavior of output and prices when wages are slow to adjust to the supply shock the key factors here are whether the supply shock requires a reduction in the real wage and whether there is real wage resistance by workers in contrast to much of the recent literature i concentrate on the closed economy 2 the supply shock is domestic and there is no recourse to foreigners to mitigate its effects the main result of the paper is that supply shocks by themselves are unlikely to lead to unemployment if monetary policy remains passive and so long as there is no

price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations abstract this paper reconsiders a result obtained by sargent and wallace namely that price level indeterminacy obtains in their model if the monetary authorities adopt a feedback rule for the interest rate rather than the money stock it is shown that the indeterminacy vanishes if the interest rate rule is chosen so as to have a desired effect on the expected quantity of money demanded this holds even if considerable weight is given in the choice of a rule to the aim of smoothing interest rate fluctuations

can exchange rates forecast commodity prices we show that commodity currency exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices both in sample and out of sample and against a variety of alternative benchmarks this result is of particular interest to policy makers given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular we also explore the reverse relationship commodity prices forecasting exchange rates but find it to be notably less robust we offer a theoretical resolution based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward looking whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short term demand imbalances

why u s money does not cause u s output but does cause hong kong output abstract standard econometric tests for whether money causes output will be meaningless if monetary policy is chosen optimally to smooth fluctuations in output if u s monetary policy were chosen to smooth u s output we show that u s money will not granger cause u s output indeed as shown by rowe and yetman 2002 identifying policy makers objectives an application to the bank of canada canadian journal of economics 35 2 239 256 if there is a say 6 quarter lag in the effect of money on output then u s output will be unforecastable from any information set available to the fed lagged 6 quarters but if other countries for example hong kong have currencies that are fixed to the u s dollar hong kong monetary policy will then be chosen in washington d c with no concern for smoothing hong kong output econometric causality tests of u s money on hong kong output will then show evidence of causality we test this empirically our empirical analysis also provides a measure of the degree to which macroeconomic stabilisation is sacrificed by adopting a fixed exchange rate rather than an independent monetary policy

optimal wage indexation and monetary policy in an economy with imported raw materials abstract an economy s openness from the input side has important effects on the optimal design of its macroeconomic policies given the exchange rate regime the larger the share of imported raw materials in domestic production the smaller the optimal degree of wage indexation to unanticipated inflation alternatively given the wage indexation parameter the larger the share of imported raw materials in domestic production the smaller the optimal degree of foreign exchange intervention by the monetary authority the more flexible the exchange rate

a global model of oecd aggregate supply and demand using vector autoregressive techniques this paper presents a vector autoregressive model of the aggregate oecd economy using a theoretical model of global aggregate supply and demand relationships between industrial production cpi money supply and energy prices are examined using f tests variance decompositions and impulse response functions the empirical results are consistent with theory energy prices influence output and the price level in the short run while money influences the price level in the long run despite data problems this approach appears to be a reasonable compromise between simple arima models and the very detailed link type models

inflationary finance of budget deficits as an automatic stabilizer abstract a rational expectations model is presented to generalize mccallum and whitaker s 1979 model the model demonstrates the effectiveness and stability of the full employment budget deficit and of inflationary finance used to finance this deficit as automatic stabilizers in the determination of current income under rational expectations within the same model the problem of optimal dynamic stochastic monetary policy is also briefly explored

is there a role for commodity prices in the design of monetary policy some empirical the consumer price index in the united states follows a non trend stationary stochastic process that describes the index as drifting randomly upward without bound monetarists have long pointed to similar properties in the time series of monetary aggregates as the source of this incipient inflation their solution to this problem is close adherence by the central bank to targets for a monetary or reserve aggregate that correspond to slow and steady monetary growth with any periods of excessive monetary growth subsequently offset this would produce monetary series that are trend stationary if the demand for money is reasonably stable price series would also become trend stationary and for properly chosen targets the price level would be bounded with a mean inflation rate of zero

effects of global liquidity on commodity and food prices summary this article investigates the relationship between global liquidity and commodity and food prices applying a global cointegrated vector autoregressive model we use different measures of global liquidity and various indices of commodity and food prices for the period 1980 2011 our results support the hypothesis that there is a positive long run relation between global liquidity and the development of food and commodity prices and that food and commodity prices adjust significantly to this cointegrating relation global liquidity in contrast does not adjust it drives the relationship

are reserve requirements relevant for economic stabilization abstract the level of the required reserve ratio and the payment of interest on required reserves are irrelevant for economic stability 1 when the central bank appropriately adjusts its interest elasticity of supply of reserves or currency to offset changes in the required reserve ratio or in the interest rate paid on required reserves or 2 when economic agents form their price level expectations rationally conditional on the current interest rate

informational implications of money interest rate and price rules the information available to private agents determines the effectiveness of various types of monetary policy in an economy in which private agents have differential information sets the ranking of three classes of monetary policy rules critically depends on the specification of agents information sets a price rule for example minimizes the variance of output around its full information level when agents observe both the interest rate and money stock more generally if all three monetary policy variables the money stock the price level and the interest rate are contemporaneously observed the policy ranking is indeterminate

monetary policy lessons of recent inflation and disinflation by 1975 most economists agreed that the money demand function in the united states was reasonably stable and could serve as a reliable basis for the formulation of monetary policy those suspicious of monetarism were on the defensive in the light of the apparently inexorable increase of m1 velocity of about three percent per year with deviations of only a few tenths of a percent experience with rising money growth and rising inflation through 1980 only confirmed monetarist views as figure 1 shows all this had changed by 1986 with disinflation in the 1980s m1 velocity departed convincingly from its 1953 79 trend the money demand function seems to have fallen apart and is apparently not a reliable basis for monetary policy after all consequently the first major section following this introduction is devoted to the decline of velocity after 1981 and the demise of the standard money demand function some authors including i believe benjamin friedman conclude that this evidence leaves us so uncertain about the nature of money demand that policymakers cannot rely at all on any presumed money demand regularities in contrast my working hypothesis is that the money demand continues to be a stable function of relatively few variables but that the interest elasticity of money demand is substantially higher than previously thought others have sought money demand explanations in terms of regime shifts but that literature will not be discussed here events have not been kind to keynesian monetary policy positions either keynesians tend to concentrate on interest rates especially real interest rates as the best guide to the effects of monetary policy on the economy the real rate is discussed

can opec cause inflation and recession abstract this paper addresses an issue that has been the subject of debate in the media and in academic circles the issue concerns the effect of higher oil prices initiated by opec on economic activity in oecd countries results of cointegration tests indicate that there is no long run relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic variables in oecd countries however causality testing indicates the existence of unidirectional causality from oil prices to domestic prices and output

the relation between narrative and money market indicators of monetary policy this paper studies the relation between narrative based indicators of monetary policy and widely used money market indicators of monetary policy three principal findings emerge first changes in monetary policy as measured by the narrative based policy indices are associated with persistent changes in the levels of m2 and the monetary base in contrast changes in the narrative policy indicators lead to transitory changes in short term interest rates nonborrowed reserves and the spread between the six month commercial paper rate and the three month treasury bill rate third these findings are generally robust across different narrative based policy indices

interest rates aggregate information and monetary policy abstract interest rates set on economy wide markets represent an important source of information to economic agents within the class of business cycle models advanced by lucas and barro this paper explores the information conveyed by such aggregate signals and the types of monetary policies that can influence economic activity by changing the information content of interest rates

wealth effects of open market operations and optimal monetary policy abstract equilibrium models of the business cycle such as those developed by lucas 1973 and barro 1976 barro 1980 are often used to analyze the effects of monetary disturbances on the economy these models typically view monetary injections as arising through lump sum transfer payments that are independent of an agent s holdings of money this paper examines the effects caused by misperceptions about money for the more realistic case when money is injected through open market operations the major result is that unperceived open market operations have a negative wealth effect

tests of long run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks abstract we present tests of long run monetary neutrality using an empirical framework that allows for the effects of real shocks on the long run behavior of both output and monetary aggregates our findings support long run monetary neutrality as a feature of the post world war ii u s economy we further find that permanent innovations in labor supply as measured by working age population are a principal factor in the long run movements in u s output and monetary aggregates

the informational role of commodity prices in formulating monetary policy a reexamination abstract this paper reexamines the issue of whether commodity prices provide useful information for formulating monetary policy through the application of a recent development in time series methodology developed by toda and yamamoto j econometrics 66 1995 225 250 we found that commodity prices signal the future direction of the economy

is there an operational interest rate rule in his 1983 paper jeremy siegel derives a seemingly implementable policy rule involving optimal responses to interest rates the existence of such a rule would be of tremendous interest to central banks whose monetary policies place heavy weight on responses to interest rates the siegel rule is especially appealing because it is i an optimal combination policy in the sense of william poole 1970 and ii the proposed implementation of the rule does not require detailed knowledge of the structure of the economy all that is required is a calculation of the covariance between innovations in prices and interest rates within the confines of a rational expectations equilibrium model in which siegel assumes agents do not make use of information embodied in the current nominal interest rate he is able to design an optimal combination policy that does not require detailed information about the economy that such an optimal policy exists is not new but that it can be easily implemented is novel the policy rule depends solely on the covariance between innovations in the aggregate price level and innovations in the nominal rate of interest normalized by the variance of innovations in the interest rate when this index is zero policy has been set optimally when the index is positive the feedback term on interest rates in the money supply rule is too large and when the index is negative the feedback term is too small given that one can obtain reduced form expressions for prices and interest rates the index is easily computed unfortunately siegel s proposal violates robert lucas s 1976 critique that is he implicitly treats as invariant certain aspects of economic behavior that will generally change when one moves to an operational interest rate rule this note shows in detail that in a model where prices are flexible and agents observe local market prices i e the model at least employed verbally by siegel that the coefficients in the aggregate supply and demand functions are not invariant to the form of the money supply rule this lack of invariance will cause siegel s rule to be nonoperational the sensitivity of parameters in aggregate supply functions to policy is not restricted to equilibrium models with flexible prices this property also extends to contracting models with endogenous indexing see for example jo anna gray 1976 therefore siegel s rule will not be implementable in a wide variety of commonly used macro models

monetary policy and the information content of prices rational expectations and cleared markets lead to the proposition that feedback monetary policy is irrelevant to real activity as in the analyses of sargent and wallace however if agents are differentially informed and have access to a common price then prospective monetary policy actions future feedback to imperfectly known current circumstances can alter real activity by changing the information content of prices

the heterogeneity of labor wage indexation and welfare abstract when disturbances are nominal full indexation seems to be optimal for real disturbances less than full indexation should be used in the indexation literature this general result is obtained by assuming that labor is homogeneous and indexation is applied throughout the economy in the paper we show that some qualifications need to be made when labor is heterogeneous and only a small portion of labor market is covered by indexation

the direct incidence of corporate income tax on wages a stylised model is provided to show how the direct effect of corporate income tax on wages can be identified in a bargaining framework using cross company variation in tax liabilities conditional on value added per employee using data on 55 082 companies located in nine european countries over the period 1996 2003 we estimate the long run elasticity of the wage bill with respect to taxation to be 0 093 evaluated at the mean this implies that an exogenous rise of 1 in tax would reduce the wage bill by 49 cents only a weak evidence of a difference for multinational companies is found

staggering the optimal monetary rule and persistence abstract the purpose of this paper is to show that persistence is not an attribute that derives from the characteristics of wage and price setting alone the structure of demand the monetary rule and the welfare loss function are also crucial determinants of the time series characteristics of the model

monetary policies in interdependent economies an open economy explanation for base drift and price level non trend stationarities abstract most nations have experienced base drift of their money stocks and associated price level non trend stationarities recent explanations for this fact have emphasized tensions among various possible objectives of central banks in closed economy or small open economy frameworks in contrast this paper explores structural and policy interdependence among economies as an explanation for price level non trend stationarities it demonstrates that such interdependence can induce central banks to follow non trend stationary policies even if they desire only to smooth prices in their home economies

commodity prices money surprises and fed credibilit strict monetarist theory in an extreme form holds that excessive money growth or the expectation of future money growth shows up immediately in the rapid inflation of goods prices however it is widely argued that for most goods prices are in fact sticky in the short run and reflect money growth only in the long run if one seeks a sensitive market measure of the perceived looseiless or tightness of monetary policy one must look elsewhere than at the general price level interest rates being determined in quickly adjusting financial markets are free to respond immediately to expectations regarding monetary policy in 1981 and 1982 every friday at 4 10 p m eastern standard time the federal reserve board would announce the money stock for the week ending nine days previously if the announced money stock was different from what the market had been expecting interest rates generally jumped in the same direction clearly they were responding to revisions of the expected future path of the money stock but nominal interest rates are an ambiguous indicator of expectations on the one hand an announced increase in the money stock may be received by the market as indicating a higher

monetary instruments and policy rules in a rational expectations environment abstract this paper explores the implications of rational expectations and the aggregate supply theory advanced by lucas 1973 and barro 1976 for analysis of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty along the lines of poole 1970 returning to a topic initially treated by sargent and wallace 1975 not surprisingly these two classical concepts alter both the menu of feasible policy choice and the desirability of certain policy actions in our setup unlike that of sargent and wallace 1975 the systematic component of monetary policy is a relevant determinant of the magnitude of business fluctuations that arise from shocks to the system central bank behavior both the selection of monetary instruments and the framing of overall policy response to economic conditions can work to diminish or increase the magnitude of business fluctuations however the activist policies stressed by the present discussion bear little if any relationship to the policy options rationalized by the conventional analysis of monetary policy under uncertainty in particular in contrast to poole s analysis money supply responses to the nominal interest rate are not important determinants of real economic activity rather the central bank should focus on policies that make movements in the general price level readily identifiable by economic agents

taxation of investment and savings in a world economy the equilibrium of capital and equilibrium market prices are derived for a world economy with a unified securities market mobile capital no uncertainty and varying tax rates on different sources of income in each country the paper then characterizes optimal tax rates for a small country in this setting focusing on the peculiar incentives created when the before tax rate of return differs among securities due to differences in their typical tax treatment copyright 1986 by american economic association

wage setting and the tax system theory and evidence for the united kingdom abstract this paper analyses the effects of a non linear tax system on wage bargaining the main conclusions are an increase in the marginal income or payroll tax rate reduces the pre tax wage in the isoelastic case an increase in the average tax rate increases the pre tax wage by more than the tax increase and a measure of the progressivity of the tax system residual income progression is a sufficient measure of the effect of the tax system on wage pressure empirical evidence is presented to support these propositions and the predictions of the model regarding the effect of recent changes to the u k tax system on the distribution of earnings discussed

lessons on monetary policy from the 1980s t he half decade running from mid 1982 to mid 1987 was a pretty good era for u s monetary policy as these things go a sharp easing of policy beginning some time around midyear 1982 helped set in motion a recovery from the most severe business downturn the united states had experienced since the 1930s a downturn that tight monetary policy earlier on had deliberately brought about in order to slow the alarming acceleration of prices the recovery that ensued developed into a sustained expansion that continued without interruption through the end of 1987 thereby setting a new record for the longest recorded business expansion in u s peacetime experience a fiscal policy based on unprecedentedly large and continually growing structural budget deficits was a major factor underlying this record length expansion but at least monetary policy did not stand in the way just as importantly the severe 1981 82 recession served its intended purpose of substantially restoring price stability and even after five years of expansion inflation remained modest by recent historical standards at least as judged by these outcomes for the standard objectives of macroeconomic policy u s monetary policy was a distinct success during these years economists hoping to say something useful about monetary policy have had a tougher time the quantitative relationships connecting income and price movements to the growth of familiar monetary aggregates including especially the m1 measure of the money stock that had been the chief focus of monetary policy during 1979 82 utterly fell apart during this period moreover the collapse of these long standing

the stability of money supply policies that peg the rate of interest this paper examines monetary policies that peg the rate of interest without relying on an interestelastic money supply in one case the money supply is completely predetermined in the sense that it only depends on past disturbances that is current disturbances do not affect the current money supply as is the case with an interest elastic money supply interest elastic money supply rules are shown to be untenable because such interest elasticity if large enough results in dynamic instability economists have long debated the relative desirability and the viability of two alternate monetary policies a fixed money supply and a pegged rate of interest one familiar theme which runs from wicksell through patinkin 6 and finally to sargent and wallace 7 is the possible incompatibility between a pegged rate of interest and a determinate nominal price level using different models and quite different analytical techniques both patinkin 6 and sargent and wallace 7 demonstrate this incompatibility more recently sargent and wallace 8 do not treat a pegged rate of interest and a fixed money supply as mutually exclusive alternatives rather their version of the real bills doctrine is a policy that fixes both the money supply and the rate of interest through the use of one period currency loans while preserving dynamic stability and establishing a determinate equilibrium price level the money supply rules derived below which peg the rate of interest are similar to the policy considered by sargent and wallace 8 since the analytic framework employed below is similar to that used by mccallum 5 canzoneri henderson and rogoff 1 and goodfriend 3 this paper bridges the gap between the sargent wallace treatment of a pegged rate of interest and discussions that employ a more conventional analytic framework section ii derives two interest rate pegging policies by employing the notion of a permanent future rate of money growth defined analogously to permanent income this concept is used to show that policies that peg the rate of interest while preserving dynamic stability are equivalent to policies that fine tune the public s perception of future rates of money growth it is this fine tuning of the public s perception of future rates of money growth rather than a perfectly interest