contingent democrats industrialists labor and democratization in late developing countries many classic works of political economy have identified capital and labor as the champions of democratization during the first wave of transition by contrast this article argues for the contingent nature of capital and labor s support for democracy especially in the context of late development the article offers a theory of democratic contingency proposing that a few variables namely state dependence aristocratic privilege and social fear account for much of the variation found in class support for democratization both across and within cases conditions associated with late development make capital and labor especially prone to diffidence about democratization but such diffidence is subject to change especially under the impact of international economic integration poverty reducing social welfare policies and economic growth that is widely shared case material from korea indonesia mexico zambia brazil tunisia and other countries is offered as evidence

geographical mobility and potential wage gain of immigrants within spain ruiz a c geographical mobility and potential wage gain of immigrants within spain regional studies geographical mobility of workers within countries can be a means of equilibrating regional economic disparities within this context a relevant topic is the mobility of foreign workers in the destination country the spanish case is interesting because spain has one of europe s fastest growing immigration rates this paper is aimed first at studying the determinants of interregional geographical mobility of immigrants in spain and second at obtaining consistent estimates of an individual s opportunity wage as a mover or a stayer findings show that an expected wage gain exerts a positive influence on mobility and leads to a better allocation of resources

the empirical content of the roy model this paper clarifies and extends the classical roy model of self selection and earnings inequality the original roy model based on the assumption that log skills are normally distributed is shown to imply that pursuit of comparative advantage in a free market reduces earnings inequality compared to the earnings distribution that would result if workers were randomly assigned to sectors aggregate log earnings are right skewed even if one sectoral distribution is left skewed most major implications of the log normal roy model survive if differences in skills are log concave however few implications of the model survive if skills are generated from more general distributions we consider the identifiability of the roy model from data on earnings distributions the normal theory version is identifiable without regressors or exclusion restrictions sectoral distributions can be identified knowing only the aggregate earnings distribution for general skill distributions the model is not identified and has no empirical content with sufficient price variation the model can be identified from multimarket data cross sectional variation in regressors can substitute for price variation in restoring empirical content to the roy model

an empirical analysis of self employment in the u k the paper formulates a self employment paid employment choice problem that draws upon knight s notion that the individual responds to the risk adjusted relative earnings opportunities in each sector based on a development of such choice theoretic considerations an econometric model is developed with the purpose of empirically examining the determinants of self employment the model features simultaneous determination of employment status and earnings which allows for self selectivity the model is estimated using a sample of 4762 individuals from the general household survey for 1978 the estimation of the earnings equation enables a calculation of the self employment paid employment earnings differential and the estimated probit equation for self employment paid employment status facilitates the prediction of the probability of self employment the paper finds that there is positive selection bias in the observed earnings of employees that the probability of self employment depends positively on the earnings difference between the two sectors and that education and age are significant determinants of self employment

interprovincial migration and local public goods the objective of this paper is to test whether fiscally induced migration occurs in canada that is whether interprovincial migration flows are influenced by government tax and expenditure policies in order to do so a multinominal logit model of migration is developed in which individuals choose to live in the province where their utility would be highest the model is estimated using aggregate data for the period 1962 81 the results indicate that migration is influenced by provincial government spending trough the magnitude and direction of the effect differs with the type of government spending the implication of these results is that intergovernmental transfer payments and provincial natural resource revenues also have the potential to influence migration flows in canada summary in fre excerpt

north american migration returns to skill border effects and mobility costs utilizing a utility maximizing roy type discrete choice model of worker location in canadian provinces and u s states that incorporates returns to skill amenities fixed costs distance langua

the era of electoral authoritarianism in recent years scholarly attention has shifted from the study of democratization to the phenomenon of electoral authoritarianism in these regimes regular elections are held for national legislatures and chief executives yet they fail to live up to democratic standards of freedom and fairness a range of new research has investigated these regimes and especially the capacity of elections to either dislodge or reinvigorate authoritarian incumbents this article reviews some of the current work on electoral authoritarianism and attempts to find ways to achieve synthesis and better theoretical development it notes the need for greater conceptual consensus attention to context and better evaluation of what electoral competiveness means under authoritarian conditions it argues that the next stage for research should be smaller and contextual comparison that can allow for greater attention to concepts while allowing for strong midrange theory

an econometric analysis of interfirm labour mobility this paper utilizes the survey of work history 1981 data to examine the importance of non random sampling in the context of a model of interfirm labour mobility the paper adopts heckman s two step procedure in order to estimate a three equation model incorporating an individual s mobility status as endogenously determined the main conclusion is that in estimating wage equations it is important to consider the role of job mobility and to correct for the effects of sample selection bias the results generally accord with those reported by osberg et al 1986 in the only previous canadian study of job mobility in a sample selection context

labor market performance as a determinant of migration in a comparison of migrants with nonmigrants both observed and unobservable productivity factors are relevant this paper focuses more on the unobservable factors and their correlation between places of origin and destination a human capital model of migration demonstrates that more productive workers at the origin would choose to migrate only if the correlation between origin and destination factors is strongly positive longitudinal data drawn from the cote d ivoire living standards survey 1985 86 are used to examine the pattern of migration in the light of labor market performance both of wage employees and non farm self employed workers it is found that indeed the more productive workers migrate furthermore the general direction of migration is toward cities the conclusion is therefore that rural areas lose their productive workers and that urban areas may gain in productivity from the geographical shifts in population

defeating dictators electoral change and stability in competitive authoritarian regimes what explains electoral stability and change in competitive authoritarian regimes this article addresses the question by comparing eleven elections six of which led to continuity in authoritarian rule and five of which led to the victory of the opposition that took place between 1998 and 2008 in competitive authoritarian regimes countries located in the postcommunist region using interviews conducted with participants in all of these elections and other types of data and constructing a research design that allowed the authors to match these two sets of elections on a number of important dimensions they assess two groups of hypotheses those that highlight institutional structural and historical aspects of regime and opposition strength on the eve of these elections and others that highlight characteristics of the elections themselves the authors conclude that the key difference was whether the opposition adopted a tool kit of novel and sophisticated electoral strategies that made them more popular and effective challengers to the regime

exhaustible resources and the dynamics of comparative advantage abstract this paper analyses the role of international differences in factor endowments and rates of time preference in determining the pattern of trade and specialization when one of the factors of production is an exhaustible resource the length of the period over which a country exports the resource is found to be directly related to the fraction of the world s resource stock under its control while the relative endowments of the inexhaustible factor influence only the volume of trade the direction of trade is determined by the rates of time preference with the more impatient country being the first to export the resource effects of trade on factor rewards are also examined

electoral institutions ethnopolitical cleavages and party systems in africa s emerging democracies do electoral institutions and ethnopolitical cleavages shape the structure the fragmentation or concentration of party systems separately or jointly if they shape the structure of party systems jointly how can this joint effect be theoretically specified and empirically tested if ethnopolitical groups and associated ethnopolitical cleavages are not primordially fixed but constructed in the course of social economic and political interactions as the accumulated findings of over three decades of comparative research on ethnopolitics attest how can constructed ethnopolitical groups be specified and associated eth

authoritarian state building and the sources of regime competitiveness in the fourth wave the cases of belarus moldova russia and ukraine this article explores the sources of regime competitiveness in the post cold war era through a structured comparison of regime trajectories in belarus moldova russia and ukraine for the period 1992 2004 an examination of these cases suggests the need for a fundamental rethinking of the commonly held view of the transition process especially in countries that face relatively weak international democratizing pressures approaching these countries as unconsolidated autocracies rather than as simply emerging democracies draws attention to key sources of political competition that have largely been ignored in the literature on competitive regimes thus competitive politics in belarus moldova russia and ukraine were rooted less in robust civil societies strong democratic institutions or leadership than in the inability of incumbents to maintain power or concentrate political control by preserving elite unity controlling elections and or using force against opponents such pluralism by default has been the outgrowth of the strength of anti incumbent national identity and incumbent weakness as defined by a lack of know how ineffective incumbent organization and or the weakness of certain dimensions of state power

who moves a logit model analysis of inter provincial migration in canada this paper addresses the topic of inter provincial migration in terms of the basic question who moves panel logit models of the probability that an individual changes his or her province of residence from one year to the next over the 1982 1995 period are estimated using tax based longitudinal data it is found that moving is i inversely related to the home province s population size presumably reflecting local economic conditions and labour market scale effects while language also plays an important role ii more common among residents of smaller cities towns and especially rural areas than those in larger cities iii negatively related to age marriage and the presence of children for both men and women iv positively related to the provincial unemployment rate the individuals receipt of unemployment insurance except entry men having no market income except for entry men and entry women and the receipt of social assistance especially for men v slightly positively related

economics and the well being of canadian children the basic argument of this paper is that as economists we need to pay more attention to how policy affects the well being of children as individuals not just as members of families except with reference to programs explicitly designed for children e g the child tax benefit the issue of how economic policy in general affects the well being of the children themselves is relatively missing in the economics literature though children constitute nearly 25 per cent of the canadian population for example discussions of monetary policy are unlikely to consider the impact of alternative choices for children s well being debates about the merits of labour market mobility do not pay much attention to the impact of mobility on children discussions of optimal tax structures do not look at the issue from the perspective of the child 2

migration of seasonal agricultural workers nearly half of all seasonal farm workers migrate at least 75 miles in a given year an expected earnings differential from migration weakly induces migration a 10 earnings differential raises the probability of migrating by slightly more than 1 this result indicates that there are substantial costs to migrating and that employers must offer large earnings premia to induce a substantial number of workers to move to their jobs some demographic groups earn substantially higher earnings by migrating these higher earnings from migration are primarily due to higher wages rather than more hours of work

wage changes and job changes of canadian women the paper employs data from the 1986 87 labour market activity survey to investigate empirically how the wage rates of female paid workers in canada change when they change jobs in particular whether canadian women realize short run wage gains from job mobility following mincer 1986 we estimate the short run wage gain to job mobility by comparing the between job wage changes of current period job movers with the on the job wage growth of next period job movers the findings indicate that canadian women who changed jobs in 1986 realized short run wage gains of 8 9 percent and that women who quit their first job for nonpersonal job related reasons realized substantially greater wage gains than did women who quit for personal reasons were laid off or separated for other reasons

the observer effect in international politics evidence from a natural experiment by pressuring governments to hold democratic elections and by becoming directly involved in the electoral process through technical assistance and funding or as election monitors international actors now play a visible role in domestic elections and other democratic processes throughout the developing world although scholars have documented several macrolevel relationships between international level variables and movement toward democracy there has been little attention paid to the microlevel effects of international involvement in the democratization process this article examines the effects of international election observation as a prominent form of international involvement in domestic elections and exploits a natural experiment in order to test whether international observers reduce election fraud using data from the 2003 presidential elections in armenia the article demonstrates that although observers may not eliminate election fraud they can reduce election day fraud at the polling stations they visit the unusual advantage of experiment like conditions for this study offers unique causal evidence that international actors can have direct measurable effects on the level of election day fraud and by extension on the democratization process

rent extracting tariffs and the management of exhaustible resources this paper examines the interaction between a resource exporting and a resource importing country the exporting country must choose the optimal rate of depletion of an exhaustible resource and also must decide on the allocation of the extracted resource between exports and domestic use optimal management from a national point of view entails inefficiency from a global perspective in that too little resource is exported as the supplying country exploits its monopoly power the importing country however has an incentive to extract some of the resource rent by using a tariff although rent extraction is limited by the exporter s ability to use the resource domestically the optimal tariff is positive and induces greater overall inefficiency

earnings by language group in quebec in 1980 and emigration from quebec between 1976 and 1981 between 1976 and 1981 many pople moved out of quebec especially anglophones to the extent that a persons decision to stay or to move may be related to earnings prospects earnings comparisons with individuals who lived in quebec in 1981 may suffer from a selection bias this paper analyses emigration from quebec and earnings with a two equation model using a sample of men drawn from the from the 1981 canadian census it is found that a selection bias is indeed present for anglophones and that the returns to learning french may be underestimated when that bias is ignored excerpt

when do votes count regime type electoral conduct and political competition in africa the effects of electoral systems have been tested recently in africa raising several questions are the systematic effects of electoral rules the same across regime types does the conduct of elec

life of the party the origins of regime breakdown and persistence under single party rule this article develops a theory of single party regime consolidation to explain the dramatic variation in longevity among these regimes the strength of the opposition and rent scarcity during party consolidation it argues structure the choices available to elites as they decide how to build a support base a weak opposition and ready access to rents makes a low cost consolidation possible but these conditions provide little incentive to build a robust coalition or strong party organization this trajectory generates weak single party rule that is likely to collapse in a crisis conversely elites who face a powerful opposition and scarce rents have no choice but to offer potential allies access to policy making and have powerful incentives to build a strong and broad based party organization ruling parties that emerge from initial conditions like these prove more resilient during later crises the author conducts an initial test of the argument against paired comparisons of guinea bissau and tanzania and of indonesia and the philippines

the migration of young adults from non metropolitan counties this article examines young adult migration from non metropolitan counties to either different non metropolitan counties or to metropolitan areas the results show that expected gains in initial earnings provide young entrants to the labor force with a marked incentive to migrate from their non metropolitan counties of origin initial earnings gains stem in part from higher returns to schooling in both metropolitan areas and other non metropolitan counties the propensity to migrate is also sensitive to the costs of migration which in turn are correlated with paternal education and the local presence of extended family copyright 2001 oxford university press

trade and depletable resources the small open economy a two sector two factor small open economy intertemporal trade model is examined in which one of the factors is an exhaustible resource unlike the static model complete specialization in production will occur at any date with the economy switching at some date from resource intensive goods to less resource intensive goods a complete set of comparative dynamic results for the model are given one surprising result is that an increase in the price of the resource intensive good leads to a reduction in the quantity of output supplied at each date but an increase in the length of time over which the economy specializes in resource intensive production commerce international et ressources epuisables le cas d une petite economie ouverte l auteur developpe un modele de petite economie ouverte a deux secteurs et avec deux facteurs de production dont l un est une ressource epuisable c est un modele qui met l accent sur le commerce international en contexte intertemporel et dynamique contrairement a ce qui se produit en contexte statique il y a a tout moment specialisation complete de la production l economie se d6placant a certains moments de la production de biens dependant plus ou moins de la ressource epuisable le memoire presente un ensemble de resultats de dynamique comparee a partir du modele un resultat surprenant est que une augmentation dans le prix du bien dependant le plus de la ressource epuisable entraine une r6duction de la quantite produite a chacune des periodes mais aussi un accroissement dans la longueur de la periode de specialisation de l economie dans la production de ce bien

the fourth wave of democracy and dictatorship noncooperative transitions in the postcommunist world the transition from communism in europe and the former soviet union has only sometimes produced a transition to democracy since the crumbling of the berlin wall in 1989 and the collapse of the soviet union in 1991 most of the twenty eight new states have abandoned communism but only nine of these have entered the ranks of liberal democracies the remaining majority of new postcommunist states are various shades of dictatorships or unconsolidated transitional regimes this article seeks to explain why some states abandoned communism for democracy while others turned to authoritarian rule in endorsing actorcentric approaches that have dominated analyses of the third wave of democratization this argument nonetheless offers an alternative set of causal paths from ancien regime to new regime that can account for both democracy and dictatorship as outcomes situations of unequal distributions of power produced the quickest and most stable transitions from communist rule in countries with asymmetrical balances of power the regime to emerge depends almost entirely on the ideological orientation of the most powerful in countries where democrats enjoyed a decisive power advantage democracy emerged conversely in countries in which dictators maintained a decisive power advantage dictatorship emerged in between these two extremes were countries in which the distribution of power between the old regime and its challengers was relatively equal rather than producing stalemate compromise and parted transitions to democracy however such situations in the postcommunist world resulted in protracted confrontation between relatively balanced powers the regimes that emerged from these modes of transitions are not the most successful democracies but rather are unconsolidated unstable partial democracies

introduction to the distribution of earnings and of individual output by a d roy this article summarises the lasting contribution of roy s 1950 fundamental paper roy a d 1950 the distribution of earnings and of individual output economic journal vol 60 239 pp 489 505

on optimal domestic processing of exhaustible natural resource exports abstract this paper is concerned with the desirability of domestic processing of natural resource exports from a small open economy completely dependent upon these exports in the framework of a malleable capital model where the services of imported capital are needed to process the resource domestically the paper examines the optimal rates of extraction domestic processing and import of capital services in different economic scenarios defined in terms of processing technology cost and market structures presence or absence of taxes and subsidies historical growth in prices etc

self selection and internal migration in the united states abstract within the conceptual framework of the roy model this paper provides an empirical analysis of internal migration flows using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth the theoretical approach highlights regional differences in the returns to skills regions that pay higher returns to skills attract more skilled workers than regions that pay lower returns our empirical results suggest that interstate differences in the returns to skills are a major determinant of both the size and skill composition of internal migration flows persons whose skills are most mismatched with the reward structure offered by their current state of residence are the persons most likely to leave that state and these persons tend to relocate in states which offer higher rewards for their particular skills