exchange rate changes and inflation in post crisis asian economies vector autoregression analysis of the exchange rate pass through macro economic consequences of large currency depreciations among the crisis hit asian economies varied from one country to another inflation did not soar after the asian currency crisis of 1997 98 in most crisis hit countries except indonesia where high inflation followed a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah the high inflation meant a loss of price competitive advantage a key for economic recovery from a crisis this paper examines the pass through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the east asian economies using a vector autoregression analysis the main results are as follows i the degree of exchange rate pass through to import prices was quite high in the crisis hit economies ii the pass through to consumer price index cpi was generally low with a notable exception of indonesia and iii in indonesia both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of cpi to monetary policy shocks were positive large and statistically significant thus indonesia s accommodative monetary policy coupled with the high degree of cpi responsiveness to exchange rate changes was an important factor in the inflation depreciation spiral in the wake of the currency crisis

mass privatization state capacity and economic growth in post communist countries why did the transition from socialism to capitalism result in improved growth in some countries and significant economic decline in others scholars have advanced three main arguments 1 successful countries rapidly implemented neoliberal policies 2 failures were not due to poli cies but to poor institutional environments and 3 policies were counterproductive because they damaged the state we present a state centered theory and empirically demonstrate for the first time one of several possible mechanisms linking neoliberal policies to poor economic performance mass privatization programs where implemented created a massive fiscal shock for post communist governments thereby undermining the development of private sector gover nance institutions and severely exacerbating the transformational recession we performed cross national panel regressions for a sample of 25 post communist countries between 1990 and 2000 and found that mass privatization programs negatively affected economic growth state capacity and property rights protection we further tested these findings with firm level data from a rep resentative survey of managers in 3 550 companies operating in 24 post communist countries within countries that implemented mass privatized programs newly privatized firms were sub stantially less likely to engage in industrial restructuring but considerably more likely to use bar ter and accumulate tax arrears than their state owned counterparts

information technology and transnational integration theory and evidence on the evolution of the modern multinational enterprise reflecting amplified hazards in cross border exchange and imperfections in markets for intangibles internalization has been central in multinational enterprise mne theory this centrality notwithstanding the fact is that internalization coheres with lower powered incentives and carries an implicit drawback namely higher realized production costs with the emergence and deployment of information and communication technology ict modern mnes are reshaping their transnational governance to address this cost the modern mne uses ict to mitigate transaction costs and evolves more to arm s length exchange to incentivize lower production costs a testable prediction is that mnes in industries more susceptible to and employing more ict will exhibit a reduced propensity for transnational integration we examine this hypothesis using available data from 1982 to 1997 for us mnes across all manufacturing sectors regression results and robustness tests are strongly congruent with the prediction this study a first to explore empirically the role of ict in the evolution of transnational exchange suggests that mne theory until now founded primarily on transaction cost economics and a cross border control theory of value capture is more likely to keep pace with developments in mne practice by opening up to incentive theories of exchange governance and a cross border coordination theory of value creation

bureaucracy and growth a cross national analysis of the effects of weberian state structures on economic growth the role of bureaucratic authority structures in facilitating economic growth has been a sociological concern since max weber s classic contributions almost 100 years ago using a recent and original data set we examine the characteristics of core state economic agencies and the growth records of a sample of 35 developing countries for the 1970 1990 period our weberianness scale offers a simple measure of the degree to which these agencies employ meritocratic recruitment and offer predictable rewarding long term careers we find that these weberian characteristics significantly enhance prospects for economic growth even when we control for initial levels of gdp per capita and human capital our results imply that weberianness should be included as a factor in general models of economic growth they also suggest the need for more attention by policymakers to building better bureaucracies and more research by social scientists on variations in how state bureaucracies are organized

social trust in subnational regions and foreign subsidiary performance evidence from foreign investments in china recent research suggests that subnational regions can explain the variation in foreign subsidiary performance however most studies either treat subnational regions as a whole or focus on formal institutions at the subnational level this study examines how general social trust an important dimension of informal institutions at the subnational level affects foreign subsidiary performance in a sample of 17 886 foreign investments in china in 2012 we find that the level of social trust in subnational regions has a positive effect on the performance of foreign subsidiaries reducing the liability of outsidership faced by foreign subsidiaries our results also show that this positive effect is contingent on local embeddedness of the foreign subsidiaries our findings highlight the importance of incorporating informal institutions at the subnational level in examining strategies and strategy outcomes

show me the money interjurisdiction political competition and fiscal extraction in china we argue that interjurisdiction competition in authoritarian regimes engenders a specific logic for taxation promotion seeking local officials are incentivized to signal loyalty and competence to their principals through tangible fiscal revenues the greater the number of officials accountable to the same principal the more intense political competition is resulting in higher taxation however too many officials accountable to the same principal leads to lower taxation due to shirking by uncompetitive officials and the fear of political instability using a panel dataset of all chinese county level jurisdictions from 1999 2006 we find strong evidence for an inverse u shaped relationship between the number of county level jurisdictions within a prefecture our proxy for the intensity of political competition and fiscal revenues in most provinces but not so in politically unstable ethnic minority regions the results are robust to various alternative specifications including models that account for heterogeneous county characteristics and spatial interdependence

do land revenue windfalls create a political resource curse evidence from china abstract by analyzing a panel on the political turnovers of 4390 county leaders in china during 1999 2008 we find that the revenue windfalls accrued to these officials from land sales have undermined the effectiveness of the promotion system for government officials instead of rewarding efforts made to boost gdp growth promotion is positively correlated with signaling efforts and with corruption the robust positive relationship between land revenue windfalls and political turnover or specifically promotion suggests that those who are politically connected to their superiors and those beyond the prime age for promotion are the primary beneficiaries the case for corruption is substantiated by the evidence inferred from anti corruption crackdowns which reveals that the additional effect of land revenue on political turnover and size of bureaucracy a proxy for corruption decreases significantly in crackdowns but that land revenue has no effect on city construction expenditure a proxy for signaling

price discrimination by u s and german exporters the insensitivity of the u s trade balance to the sharp depreciation of the dollar in the past three years has revived interest in the relationship between exchange rates and the trade balance a central issue in most analyses of the relation between the current account and the exchange rate concerns the price adjustment process the simple integrated competitive market model predicts that local currency prices should change in proportion to the nominal exchange rate for a country too small to influence world prices the relationship between local currency import prices and exchange rates has been referred to as the pass through relationship in the empirical literature in international economics if the proportional relationship between import prices and exchange rates holds pass through is said to be complete accounts of recent u s experience cite the failure of dollar prices of imported goods to rise in proportion to exchange rates i e incomplete pass through as an important factor in explaining the persistence of the trade deficit unfortunately observations on pass through alone provide limited insight into the behavior of markets since incomplete pass through is consistent with at least two fundamentally different paradigms one is the standard competitive model of trade in which the law of one price holds but exchange rate fluctuations are associated with large changes in import demand due to other factors for example if dollar appreciation is correlated with increases in world demand and industry marginal cost is increasing then pass through will be less than complete the other is an imperfectly competitive model in which exporters are capable of price discriminating across destination markets a phenomenon paul krugman 1987 has labeled pricing to market in this model incomplete pass through is typically associated with fluctuations in the markup of price over marginal cost on exports 2 these fluctuations in markups are believed to be countryspecific they do not reflect the behavior of prices to other export destinations both models are plausible explanations of recent u s experience unfortunately it is impossible to distinguish between these competing models using only information on import prices and exchange rates for a single country in order to distinguish between the competing models an empirical analysis of goods prices and exchange rates must be capable of measuring either marginal cost or the markup over marginal cost either of these tasks poses formidable empirical problems much of the empirical literature in industrial organization has been concerned with precisely these issues since markups are an important measure of the competitiveness of industries

does electoral accountability affect economic policy choices evidence from gubernatorial term limits this paper analyzes the behavior of u s governors from 1950 to 1986 to investigate a reputation building model of political behavior we argue that differences in the behavior of governors who face a binding term limit and those who are able to run again provides a source of variation in discount rates that can be used to test a political agency model we find evidence that taxes spending and other policy instruments respond to a binding term limit if a democrat is in office the result is a fiscal cycle in term limit states which lowers state income when the term limit binds

taking an option on the future subsidizing biofuels for energy security or reducing global warming abstract this paper examines the biofuels industry from a policy and international trade perspective across the globe there are two main public policy objectives driving the development of biofuels industries improving energy security and reducing global warming the us and canadian governments have respectively fostered biofuels industries for these reasons as biofuels industries will not be financially viable without government support in the foreseeable future government policies can be interpreted as taking options on the future a theoretical model is developed using option value theory to determine whether the same governmental policy subsidization can lead to different levels of optimal subsidies in each country where the subsidy policy is driven by two distinct motivating factors if the reason subsidy levels differ is structural the likelihood of a trade dispute arising increases

the impact of corruption on entry strategy evidence from telecommunication projects in emerging economies with globalization and the growth in emerging economies multinational enterprises mnes now frequently confront challenges associated with corrupt governments already a growing body of research has demonstrated that corruption significantly reduces a countrys aggregate inflows of foreign direct investment through its effects on firm performance we move the analysis of corruption from aggregate financial flows toward managerial theory and practice by examining how firms adjust their strategy for entering foreign markets in corrupt environments and how different types of corruption affect firms choices building on institutional theory we predict that mnes will respond to pervasive and arbitrary corruption in a host country by selecting particular types of equity and nonequity modes of entry using data on 220 telecommunications development projects in 64 emerging economies we find that firms adapt to the pressures of corruption via short term contracting and entry into joint ventures we also find that the arbitrariness surrounding corrupt transactions has a significant impact on firms decisions in addition to the overall level of corruption in contrast to extant research we show that mnes use nonequity entry modes or partnering as an adaptive strategy to participate in markets despite the presence of corruption

optimal incentive contracts in the presence of career concerns theory and evidence this paper studies optimal incentive contracts when workers have career concerns concerns about the effects of current performance on future compensation we show that the optimal compensation contract optimizes total incentives the combination of the implicit incentives from career concerns and the explicit incentives from the compensation contract thus the explicit incentives from the optimal compensation contract should be strongest for workers close to retirement because career concerns are weakest for these workers we find empirical support for this prediction in the relation between chief executive compensation and stock market performance

foreign currency pricing a special case of dollarization is analyzed quotation of prices in dollars the proposed explanation is price stickiness when price adjustment is costly firms prefer to fix their prices in a stable foreign currency in order to avoid frequent price changes the proposed model demonstrates that there are often two nash equilibria in an economy populated by symmetric firms an equilibrium with uniform domestic currency pricing and one with uniform dollar pricing hence foreign currency pricing may exhibit hysteresis the model also demonstrates that the degree of competition in the economy is important in determining the pricing currency

state ownership effect on firms fdi ownership decisions under institutional pressure a study of chinese outward investing firms this study investigates the effect of state ownership on chinese firms foreign direct investment fdi ownership decisions it adopts a political perspective to extend the application of institutional theory in international business research specifically it examines firms heterogeneous responses to external institutional processes during foreign market entry while taking into consideration the political affiliation of firms with the external institutions we argue that state ownership creates the political affiliation of a firm with its home country government which increases the firm s resource dependence on home country institutions while at the same time influencing its image as perceived by host country institutional constituents such resource dependence and political perception increase firms tendency to conform to rather than resist isomorphic institutional pressures we tested our hypotheses using primary data for 132 fdi entries made by chinese firms during 2000 2006 and we found that the effects of home regulatory host regulatory and host normative pressures on a firm to choose a joint ownership structure were stronger when the share of equity held by state entities in the firm was high

policy uncertainty and the sequence of entry by japanese firms 1980 1998 we extend the stages model of internationalization to incorporate a sophisticated consideration of temporal and cross national variation in the uncertainty of the policy environment using a sample of 6465 international expansions of 665 japanese manufacturing firms in 49 countries we develop arguments from internationalization and bargaining power perspectives to show how japanese firms manage policy uncertainty in host country environments through the within country sequencing of investments although a distribution to manufacturing entry sequence tends to prevail in countries with low levels of policy uncertainty as uncertainty in the policy environment increases initial entry by distribution is increasingly likely to be eschewed in favor of an initial entry by a joint venture manufacturing plant we suggest that this change in investment sequence occurs as firms shift from an emphasis on developing knowledge about local markets and consumers in low hazards markets to an international expansion strategy in uncertain policy environments that places knowledge development of the policy environment at the forefront of a firm s strategy

effects of term limits on fiscal performance evidence from democratic nations political reputation models feature forward looking rational voters who re elect incumbents based on their estimate of an incumbent s ability level fiscal policy is one of the ways an incumbent establishes a reputation and thereby signals this ability level to voters the reputation building framework implies that term limits should affect fiscal performance a term limited incumbent places less value on reputation building than an incumbent eligible for re election does we examine differences in fiscal performance in democratic countries under alternative executive term limit regimes our results generally agree with the prior findings of besley and case 1995a who analyzed gubernatorial term limits in the american states we provide new evidence that the fiscal effects of term limits differ under a two term rule versus a single term rule

timing is everything elections and trade liberalization in the postcommunist world in the wake of the soviet bloc s collapse various postcommunist countries rushed to gain greater access to foreign markets many of them have made substantial progress in liberalizing commerce but the movement toward free trade has been by no means universal one prominent view is that the establishment of democratic institutions has stimulated economic reform in thepostcommunist world the authors conduct one of the first studies on this topic and find that democracies are indeed more likely to liberalize trade than nondemocracies they also find that the electoral calendar has a potent influence on the timing of commercial reform in postcommunist democracies controlling for a range of factors politicians are most likely to reduce trade barriers immediately after voters go to the polls trade liberalization is much less likely to occur at other points in a democracy s electoral calendar and elections have no effect on commercial reform in nondemocracies

political aspects of mne theory political behavior by mnes has usually been ignored downplayed or passively treated in dominant economic models of the multinational enterprise in order to remedy this lacuna dunning s eclectic paradigm is expanded to integrate political dimensions in the analysis of ownership internalization and location advantages

exchange rate pass through abstract the resilience of trade balances of the major industrialized economies to changes in their exchange rates has evoked interest in the exchange rate pass through relationship so far there has not been a comprehensive survey of this literature the paper aims to fill this gap in two ways first it pieces together the theoretical literature on exchange rate pass through second it provides a critical survey of the empirical literature on exchange rate pass through emphasis is placed on the data and methodology employed in previous work this is done in order to guide future work in this growing area of research

how much does subnational region matter to foreign subsidiary performance evidence from fortune global 500 corporations investment in china what explains the heterogeneity of foreign subsidiary performance previous studies have emphasized the importance of industry corporate parent and home country effects on the variation of foreign subsidiary performance building on recent international business and economic geography research this study examines the extent to which subnational region effects can also explain such performance variation we empirically decompose the variance of the performance of fortune global 500 corporations subsidiaries in china during 1998 2006 results show that not only are subnational region effects statistically significant in explaining the variation of subsidiary performance but their interactions with industry corporate parent and home country effects are also significant and economically important we further show that subnational region effects tend to be stronger in the period prior to china s wto accession and in the country s less developed subnational regions our findings highlight the importance of considering both the direct and indirect roles of subnational region in shaping firms strategy and performance in international business research

spanning the institutional abyss the intergovernmental network and the governance of foreign direct investment global economic transactions such as foreign direct investment fdi must extend over an institutional abyss between the jurisdiction and therefore protection of the states involved intergovernmental organizations igos represent an important attempt to span this abyss the authors use a network approach to demonstrate that the connections between two countries through joint membership in the same igos are associated with a large positive influence on the fdi that flows between them moreover they show that this effect occurs not only in the case of connections through economic igos but also through those with social and cultural mandates this demonstrates that relational governance is important and feasible in the global context even for the most risky transactions the authors also examine the interdependence between the igo network and the domestic institutions of states social and cultural igo connections do more and economic igo connections less to increase fdi when the target country is mo

how do mncs vote in developing country elections research on multinational corporations mncs and host government political risk in developing countries has largely ignored local electoral politics economic policies and the mnc investment ince

polluting thy neighbor unintended consequences of china s pollution reduction mandates this paper studies how the pollution reduction mandates imposed by china s central government in 2001 triggered unanticipated responses from its provinces we apply the difference in differences in differences ddd method to a unique dataset on industry level activities in counties along 24 major rivers in china from 1998 through 2008 we find that the most downstream county of a province has up to 20 percent more water polluting activities than otherwise identical counties since 2001 moreover we find that the enforcement of pollution fee collection is more lenient in the most downstream county of a province and that private firms contribute more to the downstream effect than state owned enterprises and foreign firms these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the provincial governments respond to the pollution reduction mandates by shifting their enforcement efforts away from the most downstream county

running out of steam a political incentive perspective of fdi inflows in china drawing on the sociological literature of state bureaucracy we develop a political incentive perspective on fdi inflows we argue that political term as a core feature of career advancement in state bureaucracy influences the incentives of newly appointed government officials and in turn their efforts toward achieving the state s goal of attracting fdi due to the mandatory retirement age which limits the career advancement officials in their first terms perceive that they have better chances of promotion and hence have stronger incentives to work toward advancement than those continuing to serve in the current position for the following term we test this argument by examining chinese city government leaders and fdi inflows in their cities from 2003 to 2010 using a difference in differences design the results show that first term leaders who are newly appointed after political turnover attract more fdi inflows than continuing leaders the difference is smaller when the new leaders are close to retirement but greater if they are appointed to cities with low prior gdp performance this study offers a new perspective on intra country fdi variations and extends the literature on the role of political institutions by investigating the political incentives of government officials

the state led transition to liberal capitalism neoliberal organizational world systems and social structural explanations of poland s economic success neoliberals argue that rapid liberalization and privatization can transform postcommunist economies into western style capitalist systems organizational sociologists argue that these policies produce a unique variety of capitalism while world systems theorists argue that they lead to underdevelopment this article advances a social structural alternative in a crucial case poland s relative economic success resulted from prolonged state ownership and an interventionist state employing various industrial policy tools that facilitated efficiency enhancing market oriented restructuring before ushering in beneficial foreign direct investment the resulting capitalist system closely resembles the typical pattern found in most late industrializers

the global economy as instituted process the case of central and eastern europe i argue that economic globalization indicated by the tremendous rise in world foreign direct investment fdi in recent decades is not driven simply by investor considerations of economic risk and return but is significantly shaped by the construction of demand for foreign capital by receiving states states signal this demand through the levels of formal and substantive legitimacy they grant to fdi they institutionalize globalization in formal rule as a normatively desirable development strategy states substantiate this commitment by providing domestic and foreign actors with ideational and organizational resources to facilitate fdi to illustrate this argument i use the case of central and eastern europe which was largely closed to global capital before the collapse of communism analyses of quantitative and qualitative data show that substantive legitimacy granted to fdi by host states more than formal regulations determined the size of foreign capital flows into postsocialist countries in the

competing for global capital or local voters the politics of business location incentives the competition for global capital has led to interjurisdictional competition between countries states and cities as to who can offer the most attractive incentives to firms in this study we examine the domestic politics of this competition by focusing on incentive use in the united states from 1999 to 2012 we define incentives as the targeted tax deductions or exemptions that are used to lure businesses into a locality drawing on data from municipal incentive programs we examine how electoral competition shapes the use and oversight of targeted incentives we find evidence that cities with elected mayors provide larger incentives than non elected city managers by taking advantage of exogeneity in the assignment of city government institutions and a database of over 2000 investment incentives from 2010 to 2012 we also find that elected mayors enjoy more lax oversight of incentive projects than their appointed counterparts our results have important implications for the study of interjurisdictional competition and the role of electoral institutions in shaping economic policy

governance infrastructure and us foreign direct investment this paper examines the statistical importance of governance infrastructure as a determinant of us foreign direct investment fdi in broad terms governance infrastructure represents attributes of legislation regulation and legal systems that condition freedom of transacting security of property rights and transparency of government and legal processes our econometric analysis uses a two stage estimation procedure in the first stage the probability that a country is an fdi recipient is estimated the results indicate that countries that fail to achieve a minimum threshold of effective governance are unlikely to receive any us fdi countries that receive no us fdi are typically countries that do not promote free and transparent markets that have ineffective governments and that often have legal systems that are not rooted in english common law in the second stage the analysis is restricted to those countries that did receive fdi flows the estimated equations focus on the determinants of the amount of fdi received given that a country is a recipient of us fdi governance infrastructure including the nature of the legal system is an important determinant of the amount received

an empirical assessment of currency devaluation in east asian countries the hypothesis of contractionary devaluation has received surprisingly strong empirical support especially in the context of latin american countries in this paper we study whether it applies equally well in seven east asian countries when we use the pre 1997 crisis data and the trade weighted exchange rate we find no evidence of contractionary devaluations in fact currency devaluation appears strongly expansionary in several countries this is contrasted to the case of chile and mexico where the evidence of devaluation is persistent we find that the results are somewhat sensitive to the definition of the exchange rate and the period of estimation