two sample nonparametric estimation of intergenerational income mobility in the united states and sweden we estimate intergenerational income mobility in the us and sweden using a new nonparametric approach the approach addresses several empirical issues raised in the literature and applies when other estimators are infeasible we argue that previous estimates of income mobility conceal the heterogeneous nature of the transmission mechanism by keeping mobility constant across families the striking differences we find between mobility patterns across family backgrounds captured by father s education lead us to question the conventional result that intergenerational transmission of earnings is weaker in sweden than in the united states for important parts of the population

consumer support for environmental policies an application to purchases of green cars this paper focuses on how consumer motivation can be tapped in order to encourage the adoption of cleaner technologies consumers are heterogeneous they may be guided by intrinsic motivation or extrinsic motivation while information provision policies such as the energy label for cars may be effective in encouraging certain consumers to adopt green cars financial incentive schemes such as subsidies or fines may be more persuasive for extrinsically motivated consumers we develop a dynamic theory of adoption of environmental innovations in which information provision policies are followed by financial incentives first carrot then stick incentives analysis of a survey dataset of swiss households observes considerable heterogeneity in terms of support of information provision or financial incentive policies in line with our conjectures our results will be of particular interest to policymakers interested in guiding consumers towards cleaner technologies

adjusting to skill shortages in australian smes skill shortages are often portrayed as a major problem for advanced economies yet there is surprisingly little empirical evidence about how firms adjust to skill shortages and their associated effects on firm performance this article provides new evidence from the business longitudinal database an australian data set with unusually rich information on the causes and consequences of skill shortages in small and medium sized enterprises we document the range of alternative strategies that firms adopt when responding to skill shortages and show that certain types of adaptation are used in some cases and not in others depending on the type of shortage encountered and other attributes of the firm further we show that certain types of skill shortage are more likely to be long lasting and difficult to resolve while others are alleviated relatively quickly with minimal adjustment our findings yield lessons for the skill utilization strategies of firms and for the labour market policies of governments

integrated value assessment using paired comparisons abstract a survey methodology is described which uses paired comparisons in combination with contingent valuation to assess individuals values concerning the conservation of a rare mammal species the mountain pygmy possum burramys parvus value expressions which can be accommodated by economic theory are distinguished from those which are best represented by a noncompensatory preference structure a procedure for aggregating data involving these two categories of value expression is described this integrated value assessment is more inclusive than the conventional approach of using contingent valuation and other economic data within a benefit cost framework a comprehensive assessment of the value implications of a proposal can be undertaken in which the actual rather than assumed structures of individuals values are taken into account

intergenerational economic mobility in the united states 1940 to 2000 we estimate trends in intergenerational economic mobility by matching men in the census to synthetic parents in the prior generation we find that mobility increased from 1950 to 1980 but has declined sharply since 1980 while our estimator places greater weight on location effects than the standard intergenerational coefficient the size of the bias appears to be small our preferred results suggest that earnings are regressing to the mean more slowly now than at any time since world war ii causing economic differences between families to become more persistent however current rates of positional mobility appear historically normal

the role of expectations in adolescent schooling choices do youths respond to economic incentives i introduction over the postwar period the level of education attained by individuals in nations of the organisation for economic co operation and development has increased steadily this is especially true for the united states 1 in 1950 for example the average american aged 25 or older had 9 3 years of education by 2000 this had increased to 12 7 years this increase reflects sizable increases in the rate of high school completion in the cohort aged 16 24 in 1960 more than 27 were counted as high school dropouts by 2001 the proportion of high school dropouts in this age cohort had fallen to 10 7 although the proportion of whites in any given age cohort who graduated high school has exceeded that for african americans over this period this gap narrowed significantly during the 1970s and 1980s and by 2000 had nearly closed 2 observed trends in and patterns of educational attainment human capital accumulation and labor market success are determined by several factors in addition to changes in a wide variety of background factors such as ability motivation race and gender these involve decisions made by governments as reflected in school resources and macroeconomic performance and by parents e g parental education work effort and child care time also relevant are the choices made by adolescents themselves in response to the net economic returns of the options open to them in this article we explore the schooling choices of youths in response to their perception of these returns economic and sociological research on the determinants of the schooling outcomes of youths is extensive and distinguished 3 these studies focus primarily on the family neighborhood and peer group determinants of educational attainments and are largely reduced form in nature the role of youth preferences and the choices made in response to the economic incentives and constraints that young people face have not been systematically explored in these studies hence their results may attribute to background and family characteristics effects properly attributed to differences in youths own choices in response to the incentives that they face 4 in this study we address the role of youths own choice conditioned expectations in understanding their schooling choices by constructing a choice or switching model we emphasize the effect of individual student perceptions regarding the returns associated with graduating from high school versus dropping out while controlling for an extensive set of family and community factors youths are presumed to form their expectations by referring to the outcomes of a slightly older cohort of individuals who have characteristics similar to their own because these expected income returns are choice specific we require estimates of each youth s choice conditioned expected returns taken to be unobserved by the analyst but known by the youth 5 we focus on the high school graduation outcome for three reasons first individuals must complete high school to consider postsecondary schooling options hence the decision to complete high school carries with it an option value benefit 6 second high school completion the first schooling decision over which adolescents have some control plays a crucial role in understanding the declining labor market position of low skilled workers 7 finally our analysis of the high school graduation choice is nested within an extensive economic literature that addresses the determinants of this outcome by focusing on the role of youth s own expectations we have neglected other aspects of a complete analysis of the process of educational attainment for example we presume that our extensive set of family and neighborhood factors are exogenous to the outcome and independent of unobserved factors although we do not explicitly include school characteristics in our estimation our detailed neighborhood and family variables are likely to accurately proxy for neighborhood school quality

collective labor supply heterogeneity and nonparticipation in this paper we extend the collective model of labour supply developed by chiappori 1988 to allow for discrete choices censoring and nonparticipation in employment we derive the collective restrictions on labour supply functions that we contrast with restrictions implied by the usual unitary framework we apply our results to the estimation of a collective labor supply model for married couples without children using uk data from 1979 to 1993 taking into account unobserved heterogeneity we use the log linear labor supply framework the implications of the unitary framework are rejected while those of the collective approach are not the estimates of the sharing rule show that wages have a strong influence on bargaining power within couples

alternative models of individual behaviour and implications for environmental policy abstract most insights of environmental economics are in line with the standard neoclassical economic model of rational behaviour formulated in terms of maximization of utility in general or of profits in particular the standard theory of environmental policy is a case in point however the maximization hypothesis and its methodological foundation have been criticized on many grounds related to a lack of either logical or empirical content moreover over the years a great many alternative models of behaviour have been proposed both criticism and alternatives are surveyed here attention is devoted to relevant insights from the philosophy of science the notion of methodological individualism and other criticism the alternative behavioural models include bounded rationality and satisficing lexicographic preferences habitual behaviour incommensurability and multicriteria evaluation and various models of behaviour under uncertainty major implications of the criticism and alternative models of individual behaviour for environmental policy theory are outlined

collective labour supply heterogeneity and non participation we present identification and estimation results for the collective model of labour supply in which there are discrete choices censoring of hours and non participation in employment we derive the collective restrictions on labour supply functions and contrast them with restrictions implied by the usual unitary framework using the large changes in the wage structure between men and women in the u k over the last two decades we estimate a collective labour supply model for married couples without children the estimates of the sharing rule show that male wages and employment have a strong influence on bargaining power within couples

mental health and working conditions in europe the authors investigate recent patterns in mental health at the workplace across 15 european countries using three waves of the european working conditions survey their study shows that adverse working conditions defined in terms of job demands and job hazards are strongly associated with workers mental health problems and it also finds a causal effect of job quality on workers mental health their analysis detects heterogeneous effects across countries and demographic groups and shows that labor market regulations and health care systems explain some of these crosscountry differences

actors ideology markets neoclassical and institutional perspectives on environmental policy abstract this essay is a critical examination of three well known textbooks of neoclassical environmental economics concerning their treatment of environmental policy dynamic efficiency in the sense of cost benefit analysis of a monetary kind is not the value neutral instrument to project and policy evaluation it purports to be measuring willingness to pay and other market values does not solve many problems if the issues is one of world view ideology and life styles as an alternative to conventional approaches a more open attitude to various ideological standpoints in society is recommended neoclassical textbooks emphasize the government as the main agent in environmental policy and classify policy instruments as either belonging to the command and control or the economic incentives category a broadening of perspective is here suggested in the sense of including many more agents of environmental policy for instance business companies and public interest groups environmental policy starts rather at the level of individuals than governments a distinction is made between monetary and non monetary incentives and disincentives as ways of influencing behaviour and alternatives to the neoclassical view of man business and markets are suggested for purposes of understanding social change

testing for liquidity constraints in euler equations with complementary data sources previous tests for liquidity constraints using consumption euler equations have frequently split the sample on the basis of wealth arguing that low wealth consumers are more likely to be constrained we propose alternative tests using different and more direct information on borrowing constraints obtained from the 1983 survey of consumer finances in a first stage we estimate probabilities of being constrained which are then utilized in a second sample the panel study of income dynamics to estimate switching regression models of the euler equation our estimates indicate stronger excess sensitivity associated with the possibility of liquidity constraints than the sample splitting approach

progress in behavioral game theory i s game theory meant to describe actual choices by people and institutions or not it is remarkable how much game theory has been done while largely ignoring this question the seminal book by von neumann and morgenstern the theory of games and economic behavior was clearly about how rational players would play against others they knew were rational in more recent work game theorists are not always explicit about what they aim to describe or advise at one extreme highly mathematical analyses have proposed rationality requirements that people and firms are probably not smart enough to satisfy in everyday decisions at the other extreme adaptive and evolutionary approaches use very simple modelsmostly developed to describe nonhuman animals in which players may not realize they are playing a game at all when game theory does aim to describe behavior it often proceeds with a disturbingly low ratio of careful observation to theorizing this paper describes an approach called behavioral game theory which aims to describe actual behavior is driven by empirical observation mostly experiments and charts a middle course between over rational equilibrium analyses and under rational adaptive analyses the recipe for behavioral game theory i will describe has three steps start with a game or naturally occurring situation in which standard game theory makes a bold prediction based on one or two crucial principles if behavior differs from interested readers familiar with game theory should read crawford 1997 whose approach is more eclectic than mine he concludes p 236 that most strategic behavior can be understood via a synthesis that combines elements from each of the leading theoretical frameworks traditional game theory evolutionary game theory and adaptive learning with a modicum of empirical information about behavior behavioral game theory adds psychological interpretations to this synthesis

estimation with censored regressors basic issues we study issues that arise for estimation of a linear model when a regressor is censored we discuss the efficiency losses from dropping censored observations and illustrate the losses for bound censoring we show that the common practice of introducing a dummy variable to correct for censoring does not correct bias or improve estimation we show how censored observations generally have zero semiparametric information and we discuss implications for estimation we derive the likelihood function for a parametric model of mixed bound independent censoring and apply that model to the estimation of wealth effects on consumption

how valuable is on farm work to farmers in this article we estimate a rural household model that allows specific tastes for working on farm and can fit the data as well as the general model of lopez we use two samples that are matched by individual characteristics and adopt the method for matched surveys proposed by arellano and meghir we replicate using french data the empirical finding of elhorst who reports evidence that implicit wages of on farm family labor are significantly below off farm wages we then provide estimates of the lower bounds for preferences for on farm work for males and females which are significant and positive

car buyers and fuel economy abstract this research is designed to help researchers and policy makers ground their work in the reality of how us consumers are thinking and behaving with respect to automotive fuel economy our data are from semi structured interviews with 57 households across nine lifestyle sectors we found no household that analyzed their fuel costs in a systematic way in their automobile or gasoline purchases almost none of these households track gasoline costs over time or consider them explicitly in household budgets these households may know the cost of their last tank of gasoline and the unit price of gasoline on that day but this accurate information is rapidly forgotten and replaced by typical information one effect of this lack of knowledge and information is that when consumers buy a vehicle they do not have the basic building blocks of knowledge assumed by the model of economically rational decision making and they make large errors estimating gasoline costs and savings over time moreover we find that consumer value for fuel economy is not only about private cost savings fuel economy can be a symbolic value as well for example among drivers who view resource conservation or thrift as important values to communicate consumers also assign non monetary meaning to fuel prices for example seeing rising prices as evidence of conspiracy this research suggests that consumer responses to fuel economy technology and changes in fuel prices are more complex than economic assumptions suggest the us department of energy and the energy foundation supported this research the authors are solely responsible for the content and conclusions presented

measuring the existence value of wildlife reply we know little about the motives underlying individual responses to contingent valuation cv questions concerning the existence of wildlife yet motives are important because they determine how the resulting value estimates should be interpreted and used in making management decisions for example zero bids are very common in cv but these are often protests that do not represent zero valuation for the resource itself protest zero bids may be particularly prevalent in wildlife existence value studies because some people may view trade offs between money and wildlife as unethical or immoral if protest zero bids are not interpreted correctly existence value estimates obviously will be biased the motives underlying positive cv bids also matter unfortunately these motives have received much less research attention and so may be more controversial our study of wildlife values in new england suggests that many respondents who gave positive bids were motivated by ethical concerns altruism or the desire to do their fair share concerns that indicate they used decision making processes inconsistent with the neoclassical paradigm stevens et al 1991 cv results may therefore fail to measure the economic value of existence in traditional terms the bergson tintner samuelson formulation presented by kohn 1993 is useful in this context because it attempts to disentangle behavior motivated by ethical concerns about existence from preferences about wildlife use each individual is assumed to wear two hats one as citizen the other as consumer from this perspective citizens express social values which may be ethically driven while economic values are expressed by consumers kohn suggests that we make use of this distinction by first asking respondents as citizens to make implicit trade offs between income and the preservation of wildlife respondents are then asked about their willingness to pay for the option of consuming wildlife while this is an interesting proposal the bergson tintner samuelson framework is only one of several alternative theories about behavior involving ethical considerations for discussion these theories can be classified into three groups a theories of social or group interest b natural rights and c theories based upon the neoclassical model of self interest social interest theories include the bergson tintner samuelson formulation outlined by kohn and the dual utilities model proposed by margolis 1982 margolis suggests that people are motivated by two basic concerns a self interest and b social or group interest social interest which pertains to the welfare of society as a whole is assumed to be governed in part by ethics moral duty and commitment expressions of social interest include charity participation in the political process voting and contributions for the provision of public goods margolis maintains that the neoclassical theory of self interest generally fails to adequately explain individual behavior about social interests and he proposes a dual utilities model of individual preferences in which people have irreducibly distinct social and private preferences unlike the framework proposed by kohn there is no grand maximum where social value is traded off against private value rather individuals are assumed to allocate income between social and private preferences so as to do their fair share for the welfare of society as a whole con

unemployment risk labour force participation and savings this paper analyses labour force participation and precautionary savings in the presence of risks of being fired or failing to secure a job offer when out of the labour market we use a finite horizon framework with two employment states and a stage utility function which is cara in consumption but non separable in leisure the results are that there is precautionary labour force participation employment risk lowers the reservation wage generally it also reduces consumption however due to the non separability assumption precautionary savings as usually defined may not be positive we characterize the reservation wage and contrast the results with those in which the stage utility is additive in leisure and consumption we extend the analysis to study the effects of cyclical variation in employment risk of stochastic future wage rates and of adding a third employment state of search

female labour supply and on the job search an empirical model estimated using complementary data sets we develop an empirical model of labour supply that is consistent with on the job search and which is identified and estimated by combining two data sets the u k family expenditure survey which contains information on income and expenditure and the u k labour force survey which has data on hours and job search behaviour we provide statistical evidence on the compatibility of the two samples for the purposes of estimating our model we find that search has a direct negative effect on hours of work and we establish a strong positive effect of wages on hours

what do we learn from recall consumption data in this paper we use two complementary italian data sources the 1995 istat and bank of italy household surveys to generate householdspecific nondurable expenditure in the bank of italy sample that contains relatively high quality income data we show that food expenditure data are of comparable quality and informational content across the two surveys once we properly account for heaping rounding and time averaging we therefore depart from standard practice and rely on the estimation of an inverse engel curve on istat data to impute nondurable expenditure to bank of italy observations and show how we can use these estimates to analyze consumption age profiles conditional on demographics our key result is that predictions based on a standard set of demographic and socioeconomic indicators are quite different from predictions that also condition on simulated food consumption in the sense that their age profile is less in line with the implications of the standard consumer intertemporal optimization problem

estimating labour supply responses using tax reforms the 1980 s tax reforms and the changing dispersion of wages offer one of the best opportunities yet to estimate labor supply effects nevertheless changing sample composition aggregate shocks the changing composition of the tax paying population and discontinuities in the tax system create serious identification and estimation problems we develop grouping estimators that address these issues our results reveal positive and moderately sized wage elasticities we also find negative income effects for women with children

the dynamics of willingness to consume abstract it is increasingly acknowledged that the growing consumption in the north constitutes an important part of global environmental problems to improve the possibilities of dealing with this aspect of the problems this paper explores some of the driving forces behind the growth in consumption the first section introduces the environmental debate on consumption including the relationship between final consumption and the consumption of resources the recent political acceptance of dealing with consumption and the fundamental conditions for consumption growth in the north in the following sections a cross disciplinary approach is applied in a broad search for the driving forces behind the willingness to consume throughout the exposition two questions are explored 1 why are productivity increases largely transformed into income increases instead of more leisure 2 why is such a large part of these income increases used for the consumption of goods and services with a relatively high materials intensity instead of less material intensive alternatives the explanations are divided into three groups first the economic explanations including socio economic aspects related to the institutional set up of the economy second socio psychological explanations focusing on consumption from the perspective of the human being embedded in specific social relations third historical and socio technological explanations focusing on different aspects of everyday life the paper concludes with some reflections on the political implications of the analysis

constructive consumer choice processes consumer decision making has been a focal interest in consumer research and consideration of current marketplace trends e g technological change an information explosion indicates that this topic will continue to be critically important we argue that consumer choice is inherently constructive due to limited processing capacity consumers often do not have well defined existing preferences but construct them using a variety of strategies contingent on task demands after describing constructive choice consumer decision tasks and decision strategies we provide an integrative framework for understanding constructive choice review evidence for constructive consumer choice in light of that framework and identify knowledge gaps that suggest opportunities for additional research

assessing the impact of skill shortages on the productivity performance of high tech firms in northern ireland this article utilizes data from three separate skill related surveys of firms in the northern ireland it electronic engineering and mechanical engineering industries in order to assess the extent to which the performance of high tech firms are being constrained as a result of hard to fill and or unfilled vacancies whist it was found that the determinants of skill shortage varied somewhat depending upon the definitional approach adopted a high degree of correlation was found with regards to the impacts of skill shortages on firm level performance it was found that both hard to fill and unfilled vacancies had reduced output per worker levels by between 65 and 75 in affected firms however these impacts were only detecw after controlling for selection effects the evidence suggests that standard ols procedures can generate highly misleading results in studies of this nature

the impact of immigration on the structure of wages theory and evidence from britain immigration to the uk particularly among more educated workers has risen appreciably over the past 30 years and as such has raised labor supply however studies of the impact of immigration have failed to find any significant effect on the wages of native born workers in the uk this is potentially puzzling since there is evidence that changes in the supply of educated natives have had significant effects on their wages using a pooled time series of british cross sectional micro data on male wages and employment from the mid 1970s to the mid 2000s this paper offers one possible resolution to this puzzle namely that in the uk natives and foreign born workers are imperfect substitutes we show that immigration has primarily reduced the wages of immigrants and in particular of university educated immigrants with little discernable effect on the wages of the native born

estimating the economic return to educational levels using data on twins this paper relaxes some restrictions of previous twin based estimates of the effects of education on earnings first it estimates the earnings premiums associated with different educational levels second it estimates a piecewise linear relationship between the natural logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling third the measurement error corrections are based on a less restrictive non classical measurement error model the estimation strategy implies that ability bias can be investigated separately in different parts of the educational distribution the linear relationship between the logarithm of annual earnings and years of schooling is rejected furthermore the results in the sample of identical mz twins indicated both that the ability bias could be of different signs and of different magnitudes in different parts of the educational distribution the twin based estimates in the sample of fraternal dz twins did not display any marked differences as compared to the cross sectional estimates finally the results indicated that the error corrected twin based estimates of the average return to years of schooling that rely on a classical measurement error model are upwards biased by approximately 30 copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

intergenerational mobility in the very long run florence 1427 2011 we examine intergenerational mobility in the very long run across generations that are six centuries apart we exploit a unique dataset containing detailed information at the individual level for all people living in the italian city of florence in 1427 these individuals have been associated using their surnames with their pseudo descendants living in florence in 2011 we find that earnings elasticity is about 0 04 much higher than predicted by traditional models of intergenerational mobility we also find an even stronger role for real wealth inheritance and evidence of persistence in belonging to certain elite professions our results are confirmed when we account for the quality of the pseudo links and when we address the potential selectivity bias due to the differential survival rates across surnames we argue that the quasi immobility of pre industrial society and the positional advantages in the access to certain professions might explain in part the long lasting effects of ancestors socioeconomic status

combining micro and macro data in microeconometric models or panel samples to improve accuracy of estimation in this paper we show how to do this efficiently we show that the gains from use of marginal information can be substantial we also discuss how to test the compatibility of sample and marginal information

consumption sustainable welfare and human needs with reference to uk expenditure patterns between 1954 and 1994 abstract this paper explores the complex relationship between economic consumption and human welfare or well being conventional economics suggests that increasing levels of economic consumption lead to increasing levels of well being however this view has been criticised on both environmental and social grounds on the one hand the material impacts of increasing consumption are environmentally unsustainable on the other hand material consumption can conflict with crucial social and psychological components of human welfare this paper develops a perspective on human welfare which is based on max neef s characterisation of human needs it discusses the implications of this alternative perspective for the conventional viewpoint and illustrates the importance of it with reference to patterns of consumer expenditure in the uk over the last 40 years the authors suggest that from this perspective modern societies may be seriously adrift in their pursuit of human well being however they also point out that addressing this situation provides far more opportunity for ecologically sustainable development than is generally recognised

the welfare effects of lotto evidence from the uk abstract this paper estimates the demand for lottery tickets using pooled cross section data that contain individual incomes and extensive information about characteristics one of the cross sections corresponded to a draw which was a double rollover the jackpot was enhanced by adding the two previous draws jackpots which had not been won together these datasets provide sufficient observations facing different prices to allow us to estimate the price elasticity as well as the income elasticity of demand we estimate tobit and other specifications and use the estimates to evaluate the welfare effects arising from the introduction of the lottery

beyond the economics of more the place of consumption in ecological economics abstract the relation between consumption and welfare generally assumed by orthodox economists must be re examined by ecological economists present attitudes towards consumption among the latter are often ambiguous resulting in a modified form of consumerism yet questioning the often dubious benefits of consumption is as important for the environmental debate as emphasising its neglected costs beyond basic needs satisfaction it is at most one s consumption level relative to others which counts for welfare so that benefits from consumption cannot be increased in the aggregate thus there is much scope for reducing consumption and thus environmental costs while increasing or maintaining welfare identifying those goods the consumption of which adds little or nothing to welfare and assessing the effect of reducing their consumption on resource use natural and human should be a major concern of an ecological economics aimed at promoting sustainable welfare

the value of commuting time in an empirical on the job search model an application based on moments from two samples this article estimates the value of commuting time voct among swedish males in an empirical on the job search model it uses a large sample of employee establishment linked data obtained from administrative registers the sample lacks information on mode choice for the journey to work we therefore estimate a mode choice model on another sample and use this model to link the administrative data to the relevant set of travel times costs and distances the voct is found to be 1 8 times the net hourly wage rate in the sample the relatively high estimate results from a high voct among cohabiting men

do skill shortages reduce productivity theory and evidence from the united kingdom in this paper the authors examine the effect of skilled labor shortages on productivity in the uk they develop a simple model that explains how skill shortages might reduce productivity and its rate of growth shortages may lead firms to substitute unskilled for skilled workers thereby reducing productivi ty they may also leave the firm less able to bargain higher levels of effort from their workers using a panel data set of 81 industries 1980 86 the authors find that the increase in skill shortages over the mid 1980s reduced uk productivity growth by around 0 7 percent p er annum had shortages risen by the ec average productivity growth wo uld have been about 0 4 percent per annum higher copyright 1993 by royal economic society

how much do incentives affect car purchase agent based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars part i model structure simulation of bounded rationality and model validation this article presents an agent based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars the fundamental decision making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership a two stage model of individual decision processes is employed in the first stage individual choice sets are constructed using simple non compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars second decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi attributive weighting rule the attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross country policy analysis in european countries additionally prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values the microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares the presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments as a result the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated

getting a healthy start the effectiveness of targeted benefits for improving dietary choices there is growing policy interest in encouraging better dietary choices we study a nationallyimplemented policy the uk healthy start scheme that introduced vouchers for fruit vegetables and milk we show thatthe policy has increased spending on fruit and vegetables and has been more effective than an equivalent value cash benefit we also show that the policy improved the nutrient composition of households shopping baskets with no offsetting changes in spending on other foodstuffs

identification of treatment effects under imperfect matching with an application to chinese elite schools abstract this paper extends the treatment effect framework for causal inference to contexts in which the instrument appears in a data set that can only be linked imperfectly to the treatment and outcome variables contained in another data set to overcome this problem i form all pairwise links between information on the instrument and information on the treatment and outcome matched by the commonly recorded personal characteristics in both data sets i show how these imperfect conditional matches can be used to identify both the average and distributional treatment effects for compliers of the common units of the two data sets this multiple data source approach is then applied to analyze the effect of attending an elite middle school in a chinese city where schools admissions lottery records can only be linked imperfectly to the administrative student records

optimisation and evolution winter s critique of friedman revisited milton friedman s 1953 article remains an often quoted defense of the maximization hypothesis but sidney winter s 1964 critique of friedman is less well known this paper examines critically both the natural selection argument invoked by friedman and others and the main elements of winter s critique in the light of recent development in evolutionary theory winter attempted to identify the circumstances in which the selection of maximizers could occur and these are elaborated critically finally winter s critique is extended by considering the very meaning of rational or maximizing behavior it is argued that the answer to this is neither obvious nor straightforward in an evolutionary context copyright 1994 by oxford university press

sustainable development and girardian economics what is sustainable development why is it an issue ideally what needs to be done and practically what can be done are answered in this chapter by relying on the framework of girardian economics developed by french economist andre orlean and based on rene girard s model of mimetic rivalry under conditions of high uncertainty

weak comparability of values as a foundation for ecological economics the main argument of this paper is that weak comparability of values should be seen as one characteristic feature of ecological economics the formal properties of the concepts of strong comparability implying strong or weak commensurability and weak comparability implying incommensurability will be clarified multicriteria evaluation offers the methodological and mathematical tools to operationalize the concept of incommensurability at both macro and micro levels of analysis the concept of incommensurability of values already has a long tradition in economics moreover we will show that analytic philosophy theories of complexity post normal science and the recent theories of rationality lead with different trajectories to a non algorithmic approach which in our view could be implemented by some forms of multicriteria evaluation 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

combining census and survey data to trace the spatial dimensions of poverty poverty maps provide information on the spatial distribution of living standards they are an important tool for policymakers who rely on them to allocate transfers and inform policy design poverty maps art also an important tool for researchers who use them to investigate the relationship between distribution within a country and growth or other economic environmental or social outcomes a major impediment to the development of poverty maps has been that needed data on income or consumption typically are available only from relatively small surveys census data have the required sample size but generally do not have the required information this article uses the case of ecuador to demonstrate how sample survey data can be combined with census data to yield predicted poverty rates for the population covered by the census these poverty rates are found to be precisely measured even at fairly disaggregated levels however beyond a certain level of spatial disaggregation standard errors rise rapidly

the use of structural models in econometrics costas meghir has been supported by the cowles foundation and the institution for social and policy studies isps at yale university

exploring policy impacts for servicising in product based markets a generic agent based model the shift to markets based on servicising i e market level transitions from product based to service based production and consumption patterns may contribute to achieve absolute decoupling i e the combined development of economic growth and environmental impact reduction however the potential of this contribution is largely unknown in this paper a generic agent based model of servicising is presented with which this potential can be explored further taking into account decision making procedures of business and consumer agents including market research preferences and willingness to pay the details of the servicising model are presented and the model s abilities are demonstrated through three case studies from different sectors car and bike sharing crop protection and domestic water saving systems absolute decoupling was found to occur in some of the policy scenarios but results vary widely between cases it is concluded that the model can be used to explore the impact of public policy on the uptake of servicising and on absolute decoupling in various sectors and is therefore a useful support tool for policy makers who aim to promote servicising as well as for researchers studying potential servicising impacts

consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles comparing a utility maximization and a regret minimization model this paper presents a utility based and a regret based model of consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles based on a large scale stated choice experiment held among company car leasers in the netherlands estimation and application of random utility maximization and random regret minimization discrete choice models shows that while the two models achieve almost identical fit with the data and differ only marginally in terms of predictive ability they generate rather different choice probability simulations and policy implications the most eye catching difference between the two models is that the random regret minimization model accommodates a compromise effect as it assigns relatively high choice probabilities to alternative fuel vehicles that perform reasonably well on each dimension instead of having a strong performance on some dimensions and a poor performance on others

ecosystems contingent valuation and ethics the case of wetland re creation this paper addresses a current issue in environmental valuation namely the extent to which environmental preferences depart from the usual economic paradigm to incorporate some lexicographic elements after a theoretical discussion the paper reviews attempts to explore this question empirically by supplementing contingent valuation analyses with an exploration of the motives behind willingness to pay responses including zero bids and refusals to answer this is followed by the presentation of new evidence investigating respondents willingness to pay for the creation of a wetland taken from 713 personal interviews of the british public 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

how much do incentives affect car purchase agent based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars part ii forecasting effects of feebates based on energy efficiency abstract in this paper we simulate the car market in order to forecast the effects of feebate systems based on an energy labeling scheme using categories a to g very fuel efficient a cars receive a cash incentive highly inefficient g cars pay additional fees consumers have different price elasticities and behavioral options to react to feebates they can switch to a smaller sized car but as energy efficiency varies widely within size segments they can also stick to the preferred size class and choose a more efficient smaller engine in addition previously owned cars influence the next car to be chosen we use an agent based microsimulation approach particularly suited to predict environmental and market effects of feebates heteorogenous agents choose from a choice set drawn from a detailed fleet of new cars incentives of 2000 for a labeled cars induce an additional rated co 2 emission decrease of new car registrations between 3 4 and 4 3 with co 2 abatement costs between 6 and 13 per ton and otherwise little undesired market disturbance the risk of rebound effects is estimated to be low after adopting the frequencies of consumer segments to a given country the model presented is applicable to all european car markets

technology unemployment and efficiency abstract this paper analyzes technology choices and unemployment in search equilibrium in contrast to standard search models the presence of technology choices makes the decentralized equilibrium inefficient there is too little investment in skills too little job creation and there can be multiple equilibria the paper also shows that technological progress is likely to be slower in labor markets where job tenure is low

permanent income current income and consumption evidence from two panel data sets in this article i estimate euler equations that is the first order conditions of the consumers maximization problem using data from two data sets consumption data are taken from the consumer expenditure survey income data are taken from the panel study of income dynamics because the data for the estimation come from two samples i use a generalization of the instrumental variables estimator the two sample instrumental variables estimator i find evidence that consumption is excessively sensitive to predictable income growth the estimates of the coefficient of excess sensitivity for three consumption measures range from 2 to 5

long run returns to education does schooling lead to an extended old age while there is no doubt that health is strongly correlated with education whether schooling exerts a causal impact on health is not firmly established we exploit a dutch compulsory schooling law to estimate the causal effect of education on mortality the reform provides a powerful instrument significantly raising years of schooling which in turn has a significant and robust negative effect on mortality for men surviving to age 81 an extra year of schooling is estimated to reduce the probability of dying before the age of 89 by almost three percentage points relative to a baseline of 50 percent

the evolution of preferences why sovereign preferences may not lead to sustainable policies and what to do about it abstract the conventional economic paradigm assumes that tastes and preferences are exogenous to the economic system and that the economic problem consists of optimally satisfying those preferences tastes and preferences usually do not change rapidly and in the short term this assumption makes sense sustainability is an inherently long term problem and in the long run it does not make sense to assume tastes and preferences are fixed and given if preferences are expected to change over time and under the influence of education advertising changing cultural assumptions etc the old assumption of consumer sovereignty is not adequate different criteria of optimality are needed how preferences change how they relate to the goal of sustainability and how they can or should be actively influenced to satisfy the new criteria needs to be determined ecological economics has emphasized the three rank ordered goals of ecological sustainability fair distribution and allocative efficiency this paper examines how preferences evolve and change over time and the implications of this for developing policies that meet these three goals in democratic societies

intergenerational earnings persistence and economic inequality in the long run evidence from french cohorts 1931 75 this paper analyses long term trends in intergenerational earnings persistence in france for male cohorts born between 1931 and 1975 this time period has witnessed important changes in the french labour market and educational system in particular an important compression of earnings differentials as well as a large expansion in access to secondary and higher education using a two sample instrumental variables approach i estimate two measures of intergenerational economic persistence the intergenerational earnings elasticity ige and the intergenerational correlation igc over the period the ige exhibits a v shaped pattern it falls from a high of value of 0 6 for cohorts born in the 1930s to around 0 4 for those born in the 1950s but subsequently rises to a level close to that at the beginning of the period in contrast the igc remains relatively stable over the period this suggests that changes in the ige are partly driven by transitory responses to changes in cross sectional inequality rather than long term changes in the degree of intergenerational persistence

identifying the influencing factors of the sustainable energy transitions in china abstract this paper aims to explore the influencing factors that facilitate sustainable energy transitions in china for this purpose this paper assumes that the impact of the energy transition is from three main factors energy technology innovations the energy market and socio technical regimes which can be subdivided into 11 subfactors to empirically test the proposed hypotheses questionnaire survey data collected from chinese energy enterprises are statistically analysed by structural equation models sems the results show that first energy technology innovations the energy market and socio technical regimes are the major forces in the transition to sustainable energy in china second the effects of the three main factors on the energy transition vary according to 11 different subfactors some subfactors i e innovation strategy innovation factors innovation policy innovation network and new energy competitiveness have very important positive effects on the energy transition some subfactors i e competitiveness of the coal industry customer habits and coal based infrastructure have negative effects on the transition to sustainable energy in china third the influence of the subfactors on the transition performance is diminished as a result of the joint intermediate effects of transition behaviours

a reconsideration of the sugar sweetened beverage tax in a household production model abstract we study the impact of a hypothetical tax on sugar sweetened beverages ssbs on the u s households nutrients purchase welfare change and health benefit differently from the traditional approach food at home fah is here defined as a home good instead of a market good and consumers demands derived under the assumption that households maximize utility subject to both a money and a time constraint the model is estimated by using an incomplete approximate exact affine stone index easi demand system on a data set built by merging the u s consumer expenditure and time use surveys results show that a ssb tax would be much more effective in decreasing household nutrients purchase than it would appear by estimating a model neglecting time costs in home food production due to a lesser compensation of calories from increasing fah consumption a tax induced 38 increase in ssb price is predicted to decrease the per capita energy purchase by 41 kcal day

anticipation and the valuation of delayed consumption this paper presents a model of intertemporal choice that incorporates savoring and dread i e utility from anticipat ion of delayed consumption the model explains why an individual with positive time preference may delay desirable outcomes or get unpleas ant outcomes over with quickly contrary to the prediction of convent ional formulations of intertemporal choice implications of savoring and dread for savings behavior empirical estimation of discount rate s and public policy efforts to combat myopic behavior are explored the model provides an explanation for common violations of the indepe ndence axiom as applied to intertemporal choice copyright 1987 by royal economic society

environmental norms society and economics abstract environmental norms seem to be on the upsurge everywhere norm orientation is however neglected in neoclassical economics which is fixed on homo economicus as the model of human behaviour the paper addresses the question whether homo economicus needs to give way to a norm oriented concept in environmental economics this question is tackled in an interdisciplinary and evolutionary approach using economics concepts forces are identified which are detrimental to or which promote environmental norms in the process of civilisation this investigation provides some clues on the likely importance of environmental norms in a future ecologically oriented society these clues provide in turn one answer to the fundamental question posed whether the neoclassical concept of human behaviour will likely remain or cease to be the standard tool in environmental economics rather than tackling the question in greatest generality the analysis takes recourse to an example the problem of the commons the commons is particularly suited for this investigation because it is well roamed by all the disciplines which are of relevance for the undertaking

female labour supply human capital and welfare reform we estimate a dynamic model of employment human capital accumulation including education and savings for women in the united kingdom exploiting tax and benefit reforms and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy we find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers returns to experience which are important in determining the longer term effects of policy increase with education but experience mainly accumulates when in full time employment tax credits are welfare improving in the u k increase lone mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts

the effect of immigration on wages exploiting exogenous variation at the national level this paper estimates the effect of immigration on native wages at the national level taking into account the endogenous allocation of immigrants across skill cells time varying exogenous variation across skill cells for a given country is provided by interactions of push factors distance and skill cell dummies distance mitigates the effect of push factors more severely for less educated and middle experienced because the analysis focuses on the united states and canada i propose a two stage approach sub sample 2sls that estimates the first stage regression with an augmented sample of destination countries and the second stage equation with the restricted sub sample of interest i derive asymptotic results for this estimator and suggest several applications beyond the current one the empirical analysis indicates a substantial bias in estimated ols wage elasticities to immigration sub sample 2sls estimates average 1 2 and are very stable to the use of alternative instruments

what are occupational pension plan entitlements worth in britain the acquisition of rights by workers in private pension plans underpins retirement behaviour recruitment policy and wage structure but there is controversy as to how these individual pension rights should be valued the paper combines four data sets to calculate pension entitlements for a sample of 3000 british workers in 1987 expected scheme tenure is a key variable in valuation younger workers and women face greater initial uncertainty as to their pension outcomes which is resolved as job tenure lengthens given the distribution of tenure durations many employees would obtain higher returns in defined contribution schemes than in a typical final salary defined benefit plan

measuring the existence value of wildlife what do cvm estimates really show two research programs are brought together to contribute to the growing body of work on alternatives to standard welfare based approaches to environmental valuation and policy the first is the theoretical literature undermining the new welfare

limits to substitution and irreversibility in production and consumption a neoclassical interpretation of ecological economics abstract there are many methodological approaches within ecological economics one of the principal modes of analysis is a modified version of the standard neoclassical model this paper examines the parallels which emerge between the ideas of some ecological economists concerning production and the ideas of others concerning consumption when these ideas are interpreted in the neoclassical paradigm it is well known that ecological economics is characterized by arguments concerning limits to substitution between inputs energy natural capital etc vs manufactured capital labor etc in production and the implications these have for sustainability however various authors have also expressed concerns regarding limits to substitution in consumption either between environmental assets and other goods or between basic needs commodities and other goods though the specific reasons for non substitution are different in the production and consumption cases the underlying theme is that individual commodities and other inputs have unique physical or other properties which make them poor substitutes ideas about irreversibility in production and economic development are also prominent in ecological economics likewise many authors have argued for similar irreversibilities in consumption behavior in analogy to the term technological change i coin the term preferential change to describe these phenomena the linking themes in this case are that the economy environment system is evolutionary in character and that external effects intended and unintended consequences of actions or processes imposed on other parties or resources are all pervasive