all pay war we study a model of conflicts and wars in which the outcome is uncertain not because of luck on the battlefield as in standard models but because countries lack information about their opponent in this model expected resource levels and production and military technologies are common knowledge but realized resource levels are private information each country decides how to allocate its resources to production and warfare the country with the stronger military wins and receives aggregate production in equilibrium both comparative and absolute advantages matter a larger resource share is allocated to warfare by the country with a comparative advantage in warfare at relatively low realized resource levels and by the country with an absolute disadvantage in warfare at relatively high realized resource levels from an ex ante perspective the country with a comparative advantage in warfare is more likely to win the war unless its military potential is much lower

the tragedy of the commons in a violent world earlier research has shown that the tragedy of the commons may be resolved by folk theorems for dynamic games in this article we graft on a standard natural resource exploitation game the possibility to appropriate the resource through violent means because conflict emerges endogenously as resources get depleted the threat supporting the cooperative outcome is no longer subgame perfect and thus credible the unique equilibrium is such that players exploit noncooperatively the resource when it is abundant and they revert to conflict when it becomes scarce the players utility is shown to be lower even if conflict wastes no resources

a sheriff two bullets and three problems this paper analyzes deterrence in international conflicts assume a strong country has several opponents and faces a military capacity constraint which is not exhausted after just one war two main effects are at work if the strong country is constrained then reputation is more expensive and may occur less often the problem is that the opponents may but need not be more aggressive compared to a world without a constraint it may be that an axis of evil does not exist before a war occurs but is implicitly formed even by moderate countries after the first war was waged a point of interest is whether the constrained strong country should obtain additional capacity given that the objective is to minimize the number of wars the analysis sheds some new light on the u s foreign policy the united nations and the axis of evil

carbon tax or emissions trading an analysis of economic and political feasibility of policy mechanisms for greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the mexican power sector this study provides a comparative assessment of carbon pricing instruments for the mexican electricity sector contrasting a carbon tax with an emissions trading scheme ets the assessment is per

a model of military spending and economic growth this paper investigates a model of militaryconflict between two regimes in which eachmay initiate combat in order to confiscateresources from the other conflict or thepotential for same results in wastefulmilitary spending which lowers growth foreach regime equilibrium military spendingis determined in a one shot game analysisof the one shot game is followed by a studyof the prospects for an equilibrium inwhich regimes lower military spending anddo not engage in combat in repeated play in this latter case military spending willbe decreased to a level just sufficient todeter deviations from the no combatequilibrium this minimum level increases and growth decreases with the internalpolitical instability of each regime moreover an exogenous increase in thedefensive capability of each regime mayeither increase or decrease growth depending upon the initial level ofmilitary spending and growth

understanding the process of agricultural technology adoption mineral fertilizer in eastern dr congo summary we analyze the adoption of mineral fertilizer in south kivu we model technology adoption as a three step process including awareness tryout and adoption and empirically analyze these steps using cross sectional farm household data and bivariate and heckman selection probit models we find that awareness about fertilizer is high 57 and mainly determined by education and social capital tryout is low 13 of aware farmers but positively influenced by extension interventions continued adoption is high 70 of tryout farmers but capital constraints are important and not all extension interventions are effective for continued adoption our results entail implications for extension policies in poor areas

anarchy efficiency and redistribution this paper develops a contractarian theory of the state and the existence of redistribution the existence of rules of redistribution is explained without any recourse to the risk aversion of agents no veil of ignorance is needed this avoids obligational problems inherent in most other contractarian theories of justice hence this paper departs from the standard legitimization of redistribution as fundamental insurance and interprets it as stemming from a principle of reciprocity in trade since this paper deals with an anarchic society the implementation of redistributional rules is constrained by the assumption of self enforcement we show that this assumption changes the interpretation of the state the state is characterized by a particular design of equilibrium strategies not by the existence of enforcement agencies

conflict and deterrence under strategic risk we examine the determinants of cooperation and the effectiveness of deterrence when fear is a motive for conflict we contrast results obtained in a complete information setting with those obtained in a setting with strategic risk where players have different information about their environment these two strategic settings allow us to identify and distinguish the role of predatory and preemptive incentives as determinants of cooperation and conflict in our model weapons unambiguously facilitate peace under complete information in contrast under strategic risk we show that increases in weapon stocks can have a nonmonotonic effect on the sustainability of cooperation we also show that under strategic risk asymmetry in military strength can facilitate peace and that anticipated peacekeeping interventions may improve incentives for peaceful behavior

a household hedonic model of rice traits economic values from farmers in west africa abstract new crop varieties often have been promoted in developing countries based upon superior yield vis a vis locally available varieties this research presents a hedonic price model for upland rice by drawing upon the input characteristics and consumer good characteristics model literature model specification tests determine that a combination of production and consumption characteristics best explains the willingness to pay for new upland rice varieties the household model specification determined that five traits explain the willingness to pay for new rice varieties plant cycle length plant height grain colour elongation swelling and tenderness yield was not a significant explanatory variable of the willingness to pay for seed the implications of this model are two fold first varietal development and promotion must include post harvest characteristics in addition to production traits when determining which varieties to promote for official release secondly non yield production characteristics such as plant height and cycle length are significant factors in producer s assessments of the value of a new variety overall this paper provides an alternative explanation for limited adoption of modern upland rice varieties in west africa varietal evaluation programs have focused too narrowly on yield evaluation and have not promoted varieties with superior non yield characteristics than locally available varieties

a dynamic model of conflict and appropriation abstract this paper presents an extension of a static model of economic conflict analyzed by hirshleifer 1991 1995 and skaperdas 1992 to an infinite horizon differential game our aim is to highlight the strategic role of appropriation among a smaller group of agents in an intertemporal context the model yields the conclusion that there exists a unique linear nonlinear markov perfect equilibrium strategy even when strategies are defined over the entire state space we demonstrate that partial cooperation can be seen as a long run response to conflict moreover a decrease in the effectiveness of appropriation the depreciation rate of a common pool stock the rate of time preferences or an increase in the degree of noise improves the degree of partial cooperation and thus welfare in an anarchic society

the arms trade and the stability of regional arms races abstract arms sales to countries involved in regional conflicts raise a range of pressing policy issues this paper models the interaction between two potentially hostile countries who spend their national income on arms imports and consumption goods their welfare depends on consumption and military security military security is a function of relative arms stocks and depends on the relative advantages of aggressive and defensive strategies we examine the dynamic game for noncooperative and regional arms control regimes an innovation of the paper is the inclusion of the price of arms which proves to have a major effect on the stability of arms races

adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries a survey this paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector the survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms adoption nonadoption may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range more attention needs to be given to the socio cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred the presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved furthermore the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies finally the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research

arming as a strategic investment in a cooperative equilibrium to develop a positive economic theory of military spending this analysis focuses on a game theoretic general equilibrium model of international conflict in which consumption peaceful investment and military spending are endogenously determined the analysis illustrates that when there is repeated interaction between nations a game of threats and punishments generally will not support a disarmament outcome and that fluctuations in military spending can be an endogenous result of fluctuations in aggregate economic activity furthermore the analysis shows how the relation between aggregate economic activity and military spending qualitatively depends on whether governments are acting opportunistically or cooperatively copyright 1990 by american economic association

the impact of seed vouchers on poverty reduction among smallholder rice farmers in nigeria in response to the global food crisis of 2008 the united states agency for international development usaid funded an emergency rice initiative eri program to boost rice production in nigeria the supplementary seed voucher program implemented alongside the eri adopted a randomized control trial to grant randomly selected farmers access to subsidized certified improved rice seed using the seed voucher system svs in this study we provide a consistent estimate of the impact of the svs on poverty reduction using mixed methodologies such as inverse propensity score weighing ipsw and the local average treatment effect late estimation techniques results show that the svs has a positive and statistically significant impact on annual household income and per capita consumption expenditure this study shows that availability of good quality seed at an affordable price can raise agricultural productivity increase household income and contribute to poverty reduction

the macro economic rebound effect and the uk economy abstract this paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the uk economy arising from energy efficiency policies 2000 2010 using the macroeconomic model mdm e3 the literature distinguishes between three types of rebound effect direct indirect and economy wide the macroeconomic rebound effect considered here is the combination of the indirect and economy wide effects policies for the domestic business commercial and public and transport sectors of the economy are analysed for 2000 2010 overall the policies lead to a saving of about 8 of the energy which would otherwise have been used and a reduction in co2 emissions of 10 or 14 mtc by 2010 there are also favourable macroeconomic effects lower inflation and higher growth we find that the macroeconomic rebound effect arising from uk energy efficiency policies for the period 2000 2010 is around 11 by 2010 averaged across sectors of the economy when this is added to the assumed direct rebound effect of around 15 this gives a total rebound effect of around 26 arising from these policies thus the findings of the study support the argument that energy efficiency improvements for both consumers and producers stimulated by policy incentives will lead to significant reductions in energy demand and hence in greenhouse gas emissions

household welfare and co2 emission impacts of energy and carbon taxes in mexico abstract we analyse the effects of environmental taxes on welfare and carbon emissions at the household level for the case of mexico the integrated welfare environmental analysis which is based on a censored energy consumer demand system extends previous work in two ways first the estimation of a full matrix of substitution elasticities allows us to test the necessity of incorporating second order effects into the welfare analysis second the substitution elasticities derived from the demand system are used to estimate the shortrun co2 emission reduction potential we find that first order approximations of welfare effects provide reasonable estimates particularly for carbon taxes analog to evidence in other low and middle income countries the taxation of all energy items is found to be regressive with the exception of motor fuels the analysis of the emission implications of different tax scenarios indicates that short run emission reductions at the household level can be substantial though the effects depend on how revenue is recycled this effectiveness combined with moderate and manageable adverse distributional impacts renders the carbon tax a preferred mitigation instrument considering the large effect of food price increases on poverty and the limited additional emission saving potential the inclusion of ch4 and n2o in a carbon tax regime is not advisable

endogenous destruction in conflict theory and extensions this article develops a general equilibrium model of conflict to characterize the implications of endogenous destruction for bargaining and fighting specifically we consider the scenario where two contending parties engage in bargaining to avoid fighting when there are direct costs e g arms buildups and indirect costs e g destruction to consumable resources of conflict without imposing specific functional form restrictions on conflict production and destruction technologies we show their interactions in determining an optimal decision between fighting and bargaining we find that under the shadow of conflict bargaining is costly as the contending parties always allocate more resources to arming for guarding settlement through bargaining than in the event of fighting in contrast to conventional thinking that bargaining is pareto superior over fighting we show conditions under which fighting dominates bargaining as the nash equilibrium choice the positive analysis may help explain the general causes of fighting without resorting to the assumption of incomplete information or misperceptions jel d74 h56 c7

deterrence in contests this paper explores the role of deterrence in contests as a general rule we show that for a deterrence strategy to be played by rational agents it is necessary that the contest be destructive we show for a very general class of functions that pure strategy deterrence equilibria where contestants deter one another do not exist a corollary of this finding is that under fairly general conditions agents should always be expected to engage in contests applied to international relations our results imply that war is always a potential outcome despite deterrence attempts

perfectly secure property rights and production inefficiencies in tullock contests from the point of view of institutional economics property rights are an instrument to shape individual incentives efficiently for the case of a tullock contest with endogenously determined rent i analyze the circumstances under which perfectly secure property rights emerge in an economy where the security of property is endogenously determined i analyze different sequential structures for the determination of defensive and appropriative investments and determine the equilibrium sequence of moves if the sequential structure is endogenous it turns out that in subgames where perfectly secure property rights emerge incentives for production are still inefficient in addition it can be shown that the endogenous determination of moves leads to a sequence of events that result in open conflict even if perfectly secure property rights would have been an alternative

modeling technology adoption in developing countries an analysis of technology adoption decisions by poor farmers is provided some possible empirical models for studying technology adoption are reviewed the issue of theoretical consistency is dealt with in terms of the costs of such consistency measured in data needs and model complexity and the benefits measured in terms of understanding the micro economic foundations of adoption

ethnic diversity civil war and redistribution in a game theoretic framework we analyse the circumstances under which self enforcing redistribution and power sharing coalitions can be used to peacefully resolve ethnic conflict the existence of a pacific equilibrium depends crucially on ethnic diversity the number of ethnic groups the risk of civil war is comparatively high at intermediate levels of ethnic diversity the risk is low if a society is either very homogeneous or very diverse predictions of the model are consistent with evidence on the incidence of civil war

the distribution of income in the presence of appropriative activities we examine the distribution of income when agents allocate their initial endowments between production and appropriation arms investments influence or rent seeking activities final output depends on the productive contributions of the agents but is divided between them according to their relative contributions in appropriation various possible improvements in an agent s useful productivity reduce the agent s equilibrium share of income but increases in initial endowments increase an agent s share we contrast our results to those that would obtain in the competitive counterpart to our model and discuss its relevance both for history and for the present the results extend to a class of models where distribution is determined between two groups of agents with agents within each group behaving non cooperatively but without exhibiting the free rider problem

ecological deficit tax a tax design and simulation of compensation for ecosystem service value based on ecological footprint in china abstract the expansion of resource tax to the occupation of natural ecological space is an important part of china s tax reform this paper quantifies the occupation of natural ecological space based on the demand for energy water and agriculture resources in terms of an ecological footprint and creatively convert the carbon emissions from energy consumption to occupation of carbon sinks such as woodlands and grasslands to obtain the ecological deficits in various regions of china based on the evaluation of the ecological service value the paper determines the correspondence between consumption projects land types and ecological functions realized the accounting of the economic value of the national ecological deficit as the sum of the regional deficits based on this the ecological deficit is used as an unpaid input factor in the construction of a green social accounting matrix table and a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the effects of a tax policy on the compensation for the ecological deficit value the simulation results show that the double dividend hypothesis exists in the primary and tertiary industries and employment in the secondary industry that with a high value added labor decreased resulting in decreases in both the labor income of residents and their proportion of the national income the growth rate of gdp decreases in the short term and then gradually increases capital appreciation and net exports contribute greatly to economic growth based on the positive role of taxation schemes in reducing ecological deficits and their negative impacts on economic growth and the income distribution this paper suggests that with the improvement of big data on ecological occupation an ecological deficit tax can be introduced to target the energy sector which has a large ecological footprint in addition household income should be protected through tax cuts transfer payments and earmarked funds among other means to promote economic growth and protect the environment

adoption of agricultural innovations as a two stage partial observability process in this paper we reconsider the appropriateness of certain statistical analyses in innovation adoption studies and suggest that partial observability models may sometimes be more useful the proposed models allow for a flexible specification of the process of adoption from one stage to two stages facilitate the modelling of non adopters and remedy the violation of the assumption of full information an application to the adoption of organic cultivation in greece demonstrates the relative merits of the proposed analysis

agricultural technology crop income and poverty alleviation in uganda summary this paper evaluates the ex post impact of adopting improved groundnut varieties on crop income and poverty in rural uganda the study utilizes cross sectional data of 927 households collected in 2006 from seven districts in uganda using propensity score matching methods we find that adopting improved groundnut varieties technology significantly increases crop income and reduces poverty the positive and significant impact on crop income is consistent with the perceived role of new agricultural technologies in reducing rural poverty through increased farm household income this study supports broader investment in agriculture research to address vital development challenges reaching the poor with better technologies however requires policy support for improving extension efforts access to seeds and market outlets that simulate adoption

war politics an economic rational voter framework the frequency of foreign conflict initiations in the united states is found to be significantly greater following the onset of recessions during a president s first term than in other periods the authors develop an economic theory of the political use of wars which links the election cycle war decisions and economic performance consistent with the observed relationships among these events an incumbent leader with an unfavorable economic performance record may initiate a war to force the learning of his war leadership abilities and thus salvage with some probability his reelection this obtains despite voter rationality and informational symmetry copyright 1995 by american economic association

taking a new look at empirical models of adoption average treatment effect estimation of adoption rates and their determinants this article shows that the observed sample adoption rate does not consistently estimate the population adoption rate even if the sample is random it is proved that instead the sample adoption rate is a consistent estimate of the population joint exposure and adoption rate which does not inform about adoption per se likewise it is shown that a model of adoption with observed adoption outcome as a dependent variable and where exposure to the technology is not observed and controlled for cannot yield consistent estimates of the determinants of adoption the article uses the counterfactual outcomes framework to show that the true population adoption rate corresponds to what is defined in the modern policy evaluation literature as the average treatment effect ate which measures the effect or impact of a treatment on a person randomly selected in the population in the adoption context a treatment corresponds to exposure to the technology the article uses the ate estimation framework to derive consistent nonparametric and parametric estimators of population adoption rates and their determinants and applies the results to consistently estimate the population adoption rates and determinants of the nerica new rice for africa rice varieties in c ote d ivoire the ate methodological approach developed in the article has significant policy implications with respect to judging the intrinsic merit of a new technology in terms of its potential demand by the target population independently of issues related to its accessibility and in terms of the decision to invest or not in its wide scale dissemination

the poverty impacts of improved cowpea varieties in nigeria a counterfactual analysis adoption of improved agricultural technologies has long been recognized as critical for reducing poverty through increased productivity incomes and asset accumulation using a nationally representative survey data from a sample of over 1500 households in nigeria this paper evaluates the impacts of adoption of improved cowpea varieties on income and asset poverty reduction using an endogenous switching regression model the results showed that adoption of improved cowpea varieties increased per capita household income and asset ownership by 17 and 24 percentage points respectively the results based on the observed and counterfactual income and asset distributions further showed that adoption reduced both income poverty and asset poverty by 5 percentage points the paper concludes with a discussion of the policy options for increasing adoption and impacts of improved cowpea varieties in nigeria

workers warriors and criminals social conflict in general equilibrium we incorporate appropriation activities social conflict into canonical models of trade and study how economic shocks and policies affect the intensity of conflict we show that not all shocks that could make society richer reduce conflict positive shocks to labor intensive industries diminish conflict while positive shocks to capital intensive industries increase it the key requirement is that conflict activities be more labor intensive than the economy as this determines how shocks affect the returns and costs of conflict our theory is consistent with several observed patterns of conflict and implies that empirical work should take into account the relative factor intensities of the productive and conflict sectors in each country incorporating appropriation into a canonic general equilibrium model affects what policies may be deemed desirable in order to reduce conflict and generate pareto improvements policy must be distortionary while reforms that appear efficiency enhancing under the unrealistic assumption of perfect property rights may backfire this offers one explanation for why reforms based on traditional models without appropriation may be delayed and become unpopular when implemented and why societies may sympathize with seemingly inefficient redistribution

alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics four alternative but related approaches to empirical evaluation of policy interventions are studied social experiments natural experiments matching methods and instrumental variables in each case the necessary assumptions and the data requirements are considered for estimation of a number of key parameters of interest these key parameters include the average treatment effect the treatment on the treated and the local average treatment effect some issues of implementation and interpretation are discussed drawing on the labour market programme evaluation literature

prosperity without conflict abstract social conflict and slow growth are features of many developing economies this paper considers the role institutions of property rights and conflict management can play in both achieving prosperity and mitigating conflict in these economies we study how introducing conflict over economic distribution into an otherwise standard model of growth can shape optimal second best taxation policy when diversionary activities cannot be taxed in this context we find that the maximization of economic efficiency may call for a reduction in growth in order to mitigate the problem of diversion even though the economy s growth is inefficiently slow in the absence of taxation this is so when institutional quality is sufficiently poor but not otherwise the paper warns against the conventional justification of growth promoting policies on efficiency grounds independently of institutions

self interest and national security the inner mechanism of global competition remains much as adam smith defined it two centuries ago nations interact while seeking to win by gaining higher wealth self interest in gaining wealth drives the process although wars and other deviations often occur in this setting economic concepts of competition benefit cost criteria and risk can help in defining efficient choices among policy tools including military activities from research using those concepts my study with theodora shepherd 1986 1 will discuss several tentative conclusions about the u s ussr rivalry 1 the global competitive process let us call it process 1 has properties which appear to make it stable 2 the united states and ussr appear to possess inherent security from conquest by each other 3 each country s efficient limit on military spending can be analyzed as an analog of payments for insurance to raise national security in that context inherent security reduces the u s and ussr s efficient levels of armaments 4 military entropy occurs global wealth is subject to a general process process 2 which subtracts it into military forms and warfare

market imperfections access to information and technology adoption in uganda challenges of overcoming multiple constraints limited empirical evidence exists on how multiple binding constraints influence the adoption of improved technologies by smallholder farmers this article uses the case of groundnut variety adoption in uganda to investigate the role of information seed supply and credit constraints in conditioning technology uptake new data from a household survey in seven groundnut growing districts n 945 indicate that 8 of farmers lack information on new varieties while 18 and 6 of farmers respectively cannot adopt mainly due to seed supply and capital constraints a tobit type specification that considers all nonadopters as being uninterested in the technology i e corner solutions would lead to inconsistent parameter estimates and incorrect conclusions in this context we therefore estimate a modified multi hurdle specification of demand for new varieties taking into account how information seed supply and capital constraints jointly determine adoption probability and intensity the study reveals new empirical insights on why agricultural technology adoption in africa has lagged behind slow uptake is not mainly due to a lack of economic incentives but rather a reflection of information seed supply and credit constraints that prevent farmers from translating their desired demand into adoption of modern varieties policy implications are discussed

investment under uncertainty in dynamic conflicts this paper analyses a model in which two groups repeatedly compete with each other for a prize in every time period we assume that there is a status quo bias if there is a fight today yesterday s winner is in a stronger position than the other group hence a change of the status quo has long term consequences that groups need to take into account important applications of this model include lobbying for legislation and political transitions through revolutions we analyse the strategic timing of attacks on the status quo which is similar to investment decisions under uncertainty we find that the attack threshold is considerably lower than in a comparable one period game and that the expenditure level necessary to change the status quo is low in comparison to the prize this provides a possible solution to tullock s rent seeking paradox in lobbying copyright 2006 wiley blackwell

war and conflict in economics theories applications and recent trends we review the main economic models of war and conflict these models vary in details but their implications are qualitatively consistent highlighting key commonalities across a variety of conflict settings recent empirical literature employing both laboratory and field data in many cases confirms the basic implications of conflict theory however this literature also presents important challenges to the way economists traditionally model conflict we finish our review by suggesting ways to address these challenges

the macroeconomics of dr strangelove the cold war has ended and president george bush has declared the beginning of a 4 new world order this new world order has so far been characterized by the intensification of regional disputes civil strife and civil war its implications for arms proliferation and arms control are still unclear this paper considers both superpower conflict and the transition to international cooperation in the context of a model that emphasizes intergenerational linkages specifically we explore the weapons accumulation decisions of two adversarial countries in the context of a deterrence conflict initiation game embedded in an overlapping generations model the demographic structure of the overlapping generations model allows the analysis of both between and withincountry intergenerational external effects caused by past weapons accumulation decisions while the two country setting permits consideration of international external effects caused by the adversary country s current weapons accumulation decision we analyze the noncooperative equilibrium and then consider the effects of a regime change characterized by international cooperation but where the intergenerational externali

social composition social conflict and economic development this article investigates how the existence of non cooperative social groups that appropriate resources either peacefully or through contest affects economic growth when property rights are unenforceable for symmetric groups it shows that economic growth is generated only in peaceful societies for the case of asymmetric groups rebel equilibria are investigated in which a large majority behaves peacefully although challenged by an aggressive minority the article explains how conflict intensity and the rate of economic growth depend on social fractionalisation general productivity of the economy power of social elites and the ease at which resources are appropriated

can the shadow of the future harm cooperation abstract it is generally thought that in long term relationships high valuations of the future are conducive to cooperation in an intertemporal model of conflict however we demonstrate the possibility of the opposite effect a longer shadow of the future may harm cooperation in particular we show that the degree of inefficiency is positively related to i the agents valuation of the future ii potential growth rates in resources iii the size of initial resource endowments and iv the effectiveness of conflict

towards a low carbon growth in mexico is a double dividend possible a dynamic general equilibrium assessment this paper simulates the medium and long term impact of proposed and expected energy policy on the environment and on the mexican economy the analysis has been conducted with a multi sector macroeconomic model for the evaluation of environmental and energy policy three me this model is well suited for policy assessment purposes in the context of developing economies as it indicates the transitional effects of policy intervention three me estimates the carbon tax required to meet emissions reduction targets within the mexican climate change law and assesses alternative policy scenarios each reflecting a different strategy for the recycling of tax revenues with no compensation the taxation policy would reduce co2 emissions by more than 75 by 2050 with respect to business as usual bau but at high economic costs under full redistribution of carbon tax revenues a double dividend arises the policy appears beneficial both in terms of gdp and co2 emissions reduction

assessing short term and long term economic and environmental effects of the covid 19 crisis in france in response to the covid 19 health crisis the french government has imposed drastic lockdown measures for a period of 55 days this paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic and environmental impacts of these measures in the short and long term we use a computable general equilibrium model designed to assess environmental and energy policies impacts at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels we find that the lockdown has led to a significant decrease in economic output of 5 of gdp but a positive environmental impact with a 6 6 reduction in co2 emissions in 2020 both decreases are temporary economic and environmental indicators return to their baseline trajectory after a few years co2 emissions even end up significantly higher after the covid 19 crisis when we account for persistently low oil prices we then investigate whether implementing carbon pricing can still yield positive macroeconomic dividends in the post covid recovery we find that implementing ambitious carbon pricing speeds up economic recovery while significantly reducing co2 emissions by maintaining high fossil fuel prices carbon taxation reduces the imports of fossil energy and stimulates energy efficiency investments while the full redistribution of tax proceeds does not hamper the recovery

conflict war and redistribution this article analyzes the circumstances under which conflict leads to the outbreak of war using a formal model which incorporates both the redistribution of resources as an alternative to war and imperfect information countries act as rational agents concerned with both consumption and the public bad of a war in the first period both countries can either consume or build arms whereas in the second period there can be either the threat or the use of force to reallocate resources if both countries are fully informed then there will be no war but rather a voluntary redistribution of resources in a situation of asymmetric information however in which one country is fully informed and the other is not a war can occur if the uninformed country uses a separating equilibrium strategy precommitting itself to a positive probability of war in order to prevent bluffing by the informed country

technology of military conflict military spending and war abstract this paper studies how the technology of military conflict affects the allocation of resources in military spending guns and productive investment butter we first identify the fundamental property of conflict technology which the two commonly used contest success functions the difference and ratio forms share using this property named the constant elasticity of augmentation we construct a new class of contest success functions hence generalizing the two forms we provide axiomatic and probabilistic characterizations of the new contest success function then adopting the new contest success function we study how the elasticity of augmentation affects the trade off between guns and butter and countries international policy to settle or wage a war finally we estimate the elasticity of augmentation using actual battle data including seventeenth century european battles and world war ii battles and explore the implications of the estimated parameters of military technology on military spending and the preference of settlement

a european defence union a european defence union jacques fontanel and ron smith the end of the cold war the unification of germany and the removal of us troops has rekindled interest in european defence cooperation the ec has common security policies on its agenda the military role of the weu is being enhanced and the new nato strategy emphasizes multilateral european forces a european defence union offers large potential efficiency gains power like any natural monopoly is generated more effectively and more cheaply by joint forces than by the sum of fragmented individual forces there are also large economies of scale in weapons production trends in budgets costs and threats are making national provision problematic and national arms industries non viable an edu may appear more attractive than either spending vast sums to attain minimum efficient scale or relying on forces that are so small and ill equipped as to require either dependence on the us or acceptance of effective neutrality however an edu reduces national sovereignty poses problems of command control and organization risks free riding and adverse reactions by the us and ussr and is vulnerable to exploitation and rent seeking by military industrial interests this paper examines the economics of these issues and suggests a route towards effective cooperation

swords or plowshares a theory of the security of claims to property this paper develops a general equilibrium model of the allocation of resources among appropriative and productive activities the model emphasizes the distinction between offensive weapons which are the instruments of predation and fortifications which provide defense against predation the analysis of this model shows how the equilibrium security of claims to property is determined the analysis focuses on the possibility of a nonaggressive equilibrium in which no resources are allocated to offensive weapons and claims to property are fully secure we also analyze the complex relation between economic welfare and the security of claims to property we find for example that a relatively poor agent could be better off in an equilibrium with less secure claims to property