contagion as a wealth effect financial contagion is described as a wealth effect in a continuous time model with two risky assets and three types of traders noise traders trade randomly in one market long term investors provide liquidity using a linear rule based on fundamentals convergence traders with logarithmic utility trade optimally in both markets asset price dynamics are endogenously determined numerically as functions of endogenous wealth and exogenous noise when convergence traders lose money they liquidate positions in both markets this creates contagion in that returns become more volatile and more correlated contagion reduces benefits from portfolio diversification and raises issues for risk management during the f inancial panic associated with the default of the russian government in august 1998 and the subsequent collapse of the hedge fund long term capital management numerous hedge funds banks and securities firms tried simultaneously to reduce exposures to a variety of financial instruments such as russian bonds brazilian stocks u s mortgages spreads between on therun and off the run government securities and spreads between swaps and u s treasuries although the fundamental values of these positions would appear to have little correlation during this financial crisis the asset prices in these markets exhibited the following common empirical pattern 1 financial intermediaries suffered losses as prices moved against their positions 2 market depth and liquidity decreased simultaneously in several markets 3 the volatility of prices increased simultaneously in several markets and

investor flows and the 2008 boom bust in oil prices this paper explores the impact of investor flows and financial market conditions on returns in crude oil futures markets i argue that informational frictions and the associated speculative activity may induce prices to drift away from fundamental values and may result in price booms and busts particular attention is given to the interplay between imperfect information about real economic activity including supply demand and inventory accumulation and speculative activity in oil markets furthermore i present new evidence that there were economically and statistically significant effects of investor flows on futures prices after controlling for returns in the united states and emerging economy stock markets a measure of the balance sheet flexibility of large financial institutions open interest the futures spot basis and lagged returns on oil futures the largest impacts on futures prices were from intermediate term growth rates of index positions and managed money spread positions moreover my findings suggest that these effects were through risk or informational channels distinct from changes in convenience yield finally the evidence suggests that hedge fund trading in spread positions in futures impacted the shape of term structure of oil futures prices this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

do global risk perceptions influence world oil prices abstract this paper investigates the information transmission mechanism between world oil gold silver dollar euro exchange rate markets and volatility index vix accommodating for global risk perceptions we find that there is a unique long run equilibrium relationship where gold silver exchange rate and risk perceptions appear as long run forcing variables of world oil prices we uncover that global risk perceptions have a significantly suppressing effect on oil prices in the long run we also discover that global risk perceptions play a less important role in explaining the forecast error variance of oil prices in the short run than prices in the alternative investment markets our results also suggest that a shock in risk perceptions of global investors have a negative but short lived initial impact on oil prices

asset prices and institutional investors empirical evidence indicates that trades by institutional investors have sizable effects on asset prices generating phenomena such as index effects asset class effects and others it is difficult to explain such phenomena within standard representative agent asset pricing models in this paper we consider an economy populated by institutional investors alongside standard retail investors institutions care about their performance relative to a certain index our framework is tractable admitting exact closed form expressions and produces the following analytical results we find that institutions optimally tilt their portfolios towards stocks that comprise their benchmark index the resulting price pressure boosts index stocks while leaving nonindex stocks unaffected by demanding a higher fraction of risky stocks than retail investors institutions amplify the index stock volatilities and aggregate stock market volatility and give rise to countercyclical sharpe ratios trades by institutions induce excess correlations among stocks that belong to their benchmark index generating an asset class effect institutions finance their additional purchases of index stocks by taking on leverage a policy prescription that calls for a reduction in leverage while reducing the riskiness of institutional portfolios would also reduce the ability of institutions to tilt their portfolios towards index stocks depressing the index level

origins and development of the eu ets the successful creation of the european union emissions trading scheme eu ets was not inevitable countries such as canada and japan which might be thought to have a less complex and more cohesive cultural and institutional context failed to do so europe succeeded for a number of reasons with a single market for the economy the logic of a single market for environment is inexorable the european commission which had failed in its earlier efforts to introduce a carbon energy tax made the case for trading with great skill and persistence on the basis of qualified majority voting which meant no country had a veto the uk and denmark initiated their own national schemes and there was a serious risk of balkanising the market with up to 27 different schemes with the losses of scale and scope this would entail meeting the union s kyoto commitments required a substantive pan european response and eu ets was the most credible and effective way of doing so the european parliament and environmental non governmental organisations played a constructive role pushing for more auctioning of allowances and less of them allocated centrally free allocation managed by member states ms was a necessary condition to achieve the support needed so they failed to achieve these objectives in the initial phase but they characterize the commission s proposals post 2012

financialization in commodity markets a passing trend or the new normal abstract in this paper we show that large inflows into commodity investments a recent phenomenon known as financialization has changed the behavior and dependence structure between commodities and the general stock market the common perception is that the increase in comovements is the result of distressed investors selling both assets during the 2007 2009 financial crisis we show that financial distress alone cannot explain the size and persistence of comovements instead we argue that commodities have become an investment style for institutional investors given that institutional investors continue to target funds into commodities we predict spillovers between commodities and the stock market to remain high in the future

index investment and financialization of commodities the authors found that concurrent with the rapidly growing index investment in commodity markets since the early 2000s prices of non energy commodity futures in the united states have become incr

evaluation of land use based greenhouse gas abatement measures in germany abstract agricultural production contributes 11 to the total german greenhouse gas ghg emissions we compare the efficiency of three different land use based ghg abatement measures in combination and as separately applied measures the production of short rotation coppices of feedstocks for biomethane production and peatland restoration we evaluate these options with respect to the following criteria cost efficiency ghg abatement costs abatement potential and impact on agricultural production we use the regional supply model raumis to investigate the different abatement measures at the sector and regional level up to a reduction of ghg emission of 25 1012 g co2eq peatland restoration is the most cost efficient option short rotation coppice allow some cost efficient mitigation also only at limited scale energy maize is only an option if high abatement targets should be met the joint implementation of several abatement strategies allows meeting specified targets at lower costs the crowding out effect between the options is limited the spatial analysis indicates measure specific regional competitiveness and application e g short rotation coppice in eastern and southern germany peat restoration in northern germany and energy maize production in central germany

estimating the marginal abatement cost curve of co2 emissions in china provincial panel data analysis abstract this paper estimates the marginal abatement cost curve macc of co2 emissions in china based on a provincial panel for the period of 2001 2010 the provincial marginal abatement cost mac of co2 emissions is estimated using a parameterized directional output distance function four types of model specifications are applied to fit the mac carbon intensity pairs the optimal specification controlling for various covariates is identified econometrically a scenario simulation of china s 40 45 carbon intensity reduction based on our macc is illustrated our simulation results show that china would incur a 559 623 yuan t roughly 51 57 increase in marginal abatement cost to achieve a corresponding 40 45 reduction in carbon intensity compared to its 2005 level

index investment and the financialization of commodities the authors found that concurrent with the rapidly growing index investment in commodity markets since the early 2000s prices of non energy commodity futures in the united states have become increasingly correlated with oil prices this trend has been significantly more pronounced for commodities in two popular commodity indices this finding reflects the financialization of the commodity markets and helps explain the large increase in the price volatility of non energy commodities around 2008

eu climate policy up to 2020 an economic impact assessment in its fight against climate change the eu is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20 below 1990 levels by 2020 to meet this commitment the eu builds on segmented market regulation with an eu wide cap and trade system for emissions from energy intensive installations ets sectors and additional measures by each eu member state covering emission sources outside the cap and trade system the non ets sector furthermore the eu has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target in this paper we evaluate the economic impacts of eu climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of eu compliance cost

advertising for attention in a consumer search model we model the idea that when consumers search for products they first visit the firm whose advertising is most salient the gains a firm derives from being visited early increase in search costs so equilibrium advertising increases as search costs rise as a result higher search costs may decrease both consumer welfare and firm profits we extend the basic model by allowing for firm heterogeneity in advertising costs firms that raise attention more easily advertise more but also charge lower prices and obtain higher profits as advertising cost asymmetries increase consumer surplus falls and aggregate profits rise

marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions from european agriculture cost effectiveness and the eu non ets burden sharing agreement abstract we propose a quantitative assessment of the marginal abatement costs mac of greenhouse gas emissions from european agriculture and analyze the implications of the non ets burden sharing agreement bsa for this sector this assessment is based on mac reduced forms the generic specification of which enables simple parameterization and numerical computations such mac curves are parameterized for each member state using the outputs of a detailed model of the european agricultural supply they are then used to compute total and marginal abatement costs involved by the bsa targets as well as the cost effective effort sharing the corresponding emission price and abatement costs the main findings are i flexibility mechanisms such as a cap and trade system for agricultural emissions could reduce the total costs of meeting the 10 eu abatement target by a factor two to three relative to the strict implementation of each country s target ii the corresponding equilibrium emission price is found to be 32 42 tco2eq depending on the assumption regarding business as usual emissions and iii a cap and trade system with allowances based on the bsa targets would involve substantial transfers from eu 15 countries to new member states an important share of which being made of hot air

price match announcements in a consumer search duopoly using a model of sequential search we show that announcements to price match raise prices by altering consumer search behavior first price matching diminishes firms incentives to lower prices to attract consumers who have no search costs second for consumers with positive search costs price matching lowers the marginal benefit of search inducing them to accept higher prices finally price matching can lead to asymmetric equilibria where one firm runs fewer sales and both firms tend to offer smaller discounts than in a symmetric equilibrium price increases grow in the proportion of consumers who invoke price matching guarantees and in the level of equilibrium asymmetry

does ecological economics have a future contradiction and reinvention in the age of climate change abstract this paper addresses the role of neoclassical methodologies in ecological economics and the contradictions these methodologies pose to the field s critical founding principles we first consider robert costanza s treatment of nicholas stern s global deal and then survey climate change related articles published in this journal over the past five years this survey reveals how mainstream neoclassical methodologies dominate discourse and do so by marginalizing more critical political economy analyses this situation imperils the field s founding vision of a no growth steady state it also fails to address the related growth dynamics of capitalism without such a critical treatment the field s formal embrace of methodological pluralism actually entails an ideological empiricism that renders ecological economics theoretically incoherent this situation undermines the field s historical promise as an alternative economic paradigm ecological economics now faces a problematic future its survival in a form faithful to its founding vision will require an explicit choice to address its internal contradictions and reinvent itself in ways relevant to our contemporary context without such a choice ecological economics will likely succumb to an implicit acceptance of the hegemony of mainstream economic methodologies and their pro growth imperatives

consumer search with asymmetric price sampling we explore asymmetries in the way consumers sample prices in a simple sequential search framework in equilibrium the price distribution of a firm catering to more local consumers first order stochastically dominates that of its rival prices rise in the degree of asymmetry

technical efficiency shadow price of carbon dioxide emissions and substitutability for energy in the chinese manufacturing industries abstract china is the world s largest co 2 producer and energy consumer in this paper we calculate the maximum technically obtainable co 2 emissions reduction from the efficient use of inputs and estimate the shadow prices of co 2 emissions in order to assess the potential cost savings deriving from trading emissions among industries by measuring the input distance function for 30 chinese manufacturing industries our empirical results indicate that co 2 emissions could be reduced by as much as 680 million tons in the aggregate the shadow prices of co 2 vary from a high of 18 82 to a low of zero across industries with an average of 3 13 per ton additionally the estimated indirect morishima elasticities of substitution of capital for fossil fuels indicate that the substitutabilities of capital for oil gas and coal are higher than the substitutability for labor

oligopolistic pricing with heterogeneous consumer search abstract a finite number of identical stores sell a homogeneous good to consumers with heterogeneous search costs who search sequentially with perfect recall and without replacement consumers search rules are optimal with respect to the stores pricing strategies and consumers must visit a store to obtain information about its actual price a symmetric nash equilibrium sne always exists the model exhibits a variety of equilibrium behaviors between monopoly pricing and marginal cost pricing the competitiveness of a market depends crucially on the shape of the search cost distribution moreso than on the number of competing firms

oligopolistic pricing with sequential consumer search n identical stores compete by choosing prices for a homogeneous good with constant marginal costs consumers search sequentially with perfect recall for the lowest price one class of consumers called shoppers have zero search costs while all other consumers have a positive search cost c there is a unique symmetric nash equilibrium price distribution with the property that it changes smoothly from marginal cost pricing when all consumers are shoppers and or c 0 and monopoly pricing when no consumers are shoppers remarkably as the number of stores increases the nash equilibrium becomes more monopolistic copyright 1989 by american economic association

is there co movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil even though significant attempts have appeared in literature the current perception of co movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static in particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures a comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed our results indicate that co movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold

strategic financial innovation in segmented markets rohit rahi obtained his ph d in economics from stanford university in 1993 he is a reader in finance and economics and a member of the financial markets group at the london school of economics his research interests are in the theory of financial markets in particular arbitrage in segmented markets security design and asset pricing with asymmetric information and in general equilibrium theory with incomplete markets he has published articles in the review of economic studies journal of economic theory and journal of business he served a nine year term on the editorial board of the review of economic studies jean pierre zigrand is a lecturer at the london school of economics his research interests are asset pricing financial intermediation theory and general equilibrium theory any opinions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the fmg the research findings reported in this paper are the result of the independent research of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the lse

search market equilibrium bilateral heterogeneity and repeat purchases abstract we develop a general model of search market equilibrium with heterogeneous buyers and sellers this framework unifies previous models with one sided heterogeneity and clarifies many of their special properties it easily accounts for price dispersion active search and the matching of buyer and seller types it also extends to repeat purchases once we embed it into a dynamic game with incomplete information we formalize the inferences and strategies underlying equilibria where firms charge constant prices and customers patronize them loyally we establish a general correspondence between such equilibria and single purchase markets journal of economic literature classification numbers d83 l13

on the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries abstract conventional welfare measures of the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries are extended to allow for both economic growth and food security effects the analysis reveals that growth and food security effects may dominate more conventional welfare costs of food price fluctuations although estimating the empirical magnitude of the effects is hampered by the lack of consensus on the extent to which food price fluctuations actually reduce economic growth and food security even if the welfare costs of food price fluctuations are high there are many challenges to the design and successful implementation of price stabilization schemes

competitive promotional strategies this article analyzes the equilibrium pricing strategies of brands engaged in a pricing game each brand has a monopoly market loyal consumers and competes with others in a common market called brand switchers in the case of a duopoly it is shown that the behavior of the brand switchers characterizes the equilibrium behavior of the duopolists this article focuses on two key comparative statics namely the depth of discounts away from a regular high price and the probability of giving a deal or the frequency of deals how these properties vary with the size of the loyal markets and the behavior of the brand switching population is discussed copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

intra union flexibility of non ets emission reduction obligations in the european union the eu proposal on greenhouse gas emission reduction has 28 targets for 2020 an eu wide one for co2 emissions covered by the european trading system ets and one target for non ets emissions per member state implementation is more expensive than needed i consider three alternative proposals to reduce costs in the irish proposal member states can purchase ets permits to offset excess non ets emissions in the polish proposal member states can sell excess non ets emissions in the ets in the swedish proposal member states can trade their non ets allocations i compare these alternatives to the default policy no flexibility outside the ets and the cost effective solution full flexibility i calibrate a simple model to the results of the eu impact assessment which did not disclose all details and made odd assumptions the non ets allocation exceeds the projected emissions for three member states the alternative flexibility mechanisms would be used to only a limited extent but would cut the costs of meeting the target the swedish and polish proposals come closest to the cost effective solution because of the hot air the irish proposal performs best if there are negative surprises in either abatement costs or emissions the swedish proposal will become policy

oil price agricultural commodity prices and the dollar a panel cointegration and causality analysis abstract this study examines the dynamic relationship between world oil prices and twenty four world agricultural commodity prices accounting for changes in the relative strength of us dollar in a panel setting we employ panel cointegration and granger causality methods for a panel of twenty four agricultural products based on monthly prices ranging from january 1980 to february 2010 the empirical results provide strong evidence on the impact of world oil price changes on agricultural commodity prices contrary to the findings of many studies in the literature that report neutrality of agricultural prices to oil price changes we find strong support for the role of world oil prices on prices of several agricultural commodities the positive impact of a weak dollar on agricultural prices is also confirmed

truly costly sequential search and oligopolistic pricing we modify the paper of stahl 1989 stahl d o 1989 oligopolistic pricing with sequential consumer search american economic review 79 700 12 by relaxing the assumption that consumers obtain the first price quotation for free when all price quotations are costly to obtain the unique symmetric equilibrium need not involve full consumer participation the region of parameters for which non shoppers do not fully participate in the market becomes larger as the number of shoppers decreases and or the number of firms increases the comparative statics properties of this new type of equilibrium are interesting in particular expected price increases as search cost decreases and is constant in the number of shoppers and in the number of firms welfare falls as firms enter the market we show that monopoly pricing never obtains with truly costly search d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

advertising brand loyalty and pricing i consider an oligopoly model where prior to price competition firms invest in persuasive advertising and induce brand loyalty in consumers who would otherwise buy the cheapest alternative on the market this setting in which persuasive advertising is introduced to homogenous product markets provides an alternative explanation for price dispersion phenomena despite ex ante symmetry the equilibrium profile of advertising outlays is asymmetric it follows that endogenously determined brand loyal consumer bases are not symmetric across firms this raises a robustness question regarding varian s model of sales where symmetry is exogenously assumed

a model of price leadership based on consumer loyalty this paper analyzes a duopolistic price setting game in which firms have loyal consumer segments but cannot distinguish them from price sensitive consumers the authors adapt a variant of h varian s 1980 simultaneous price setting game to analyze price leader equilibria the properties of the price leader equilibria with an exogenously specified leader motivate the construction of a game of timing in which the firm with the larger segment of loyal consumers becomes an endogenous price leader this demonstrates that consumer loyalty may play an important role in establishing the existence and identity of a price leader copyright 1992 by blackwell publishing ltd

how costly is mitigation of non co2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture a meta analysis this text reviews the assessments of marginal abatement costs of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture we use agricultural emissions and the corresponding prices collected from 21 studies that have assessed abatement potentials and costs using various modeling approaches and assumptions we first highlight the implications of the modeling approach for marginal abatement costs harmonized abatement rates for three emission prices 10 20 and 50 2005 tco2eq are regressed on variables that reflect various modeling assumptions and study characteristics in a second step the emission price is introduced as an explanatory variable when controlling for a few key characteristics of the studies the models explain an important share of the observed variability in abatement rates the type of modeling approach is found to have a significant effect in particular we find that equilibrium models lead to higher abatement rates for a given price the flexibility in nitrogen use and its effect on crop yields also plays a significant role in lowering marginal abatement costs the results of the second step indicate that the price elasticity of the abatement rate is about 0 6 this estimate is found to be robust to several specifications and consistent with previous assessments covering other economic sectors

analysis of the eu policy package on climate change and renewables abstract in 2009 the eu decided to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least by 20 in 2020 compared to 1990 and to supply 20 of energy needs by 2020 from renewable energy sources this paper uses an energy model coupled with a non co 2 greenhouse gas model to assess the range of policy options that were debated to meet both targets policy options include trading of renewable targets carbon trading in power plants and industry and the use of the clean development mechanism to improve cost efficiency the models also examined fairness by analysing the distribution of emission reduction in the non emission trading sector the distribution of co 2 allowances in the emission trading sector and the reallocation of renewable targets across member states the overall costs of meeting both targets range from 0 4 to 0 6 of gdp in 2020 for the eu as a whole the redistribution mechanisms employed significantly improve fairness compared to a cost effective solution

prominence and consumer search this article examines the implications of prominence in search markets we model prominence by supposing that the prominent firm will be sampled first by all consumers if there are no systematic quality differences among firms we find that the prominent firm will charge a lower price than its less prominent rivals making a firm prominent will typically lead to higher industry profit but lower consumer surplus and welfare the model is extended by introducing heterogeneous product qualities in which case the firm with the highest quality product has the greatest incentive to become prominent and making it prominent will boost industry profit consumer surplus and welfare

search and segregation abstract consumers willingness to pay for an identical product e g as caused by differences in local income or tastes may differ greatly across locations yet while a large literature examines consumers optimal price and product search behavior under various market configurations the equilibrium effects of such consumer segregation remain unexplored to this end i study a stylized model in which two local monopolistic markets differ in size and their consumers willingness to pay after observing their native market s price a subset of flexible consumers may travel to the other market at positive cost hoping for a bargain i show that as long as the proportion of flexible high valuation consumers is not too large active and directed search to the lower valuation market will occur in equilibrium if the higher valuation market is relatively large in size complex mixed strategy pricing emerges in equilibrium for regulators increasing the fraction of flexible consumers tends to be more effective than manipulating search costs

the applicability of marginal abatement cost approach a comprehensive review abstract the marginal abatement cost mac methodology is widely used in climate change policies policy makers rely on mac to assess feasible strategies and related costs to achieve emission reduction goals this paper introduces a variety of mac methodologies aiming at solving diverse problems which utilizes various calculable logic thus producing different results and implications this study applies a mind mapping method to capture differentiation of mac methods and systematically classify mac methodologies the applicability path analysis was proposed based on principles such as stakeholder type decision making objectives cost concept strategy mode and information scope our goal is to assess the applicability of different methodologies to reduce misuse by policy makers and to serve as a guide for subsequent research which might prompt and lead to the derivation of more consequential results in future studies the results of this study suggest that the complex method is not always better than the simplified method because policy makers are required to select the appropriate method according to the type of information needed it may even be suggested that mac could be reliable by ranking relative value of options compared with baseline rather than focusing on the absolute value of individual measures

is food financialized yes but only when liquidity is abundant abstract in this paper we investigate whether commodity index trader cit positions help to explain the increase in the correlations between agricultural commodities and equities starting around 2008 some argue institutional investors who invest both in stock and commodity markets demolish the borders between these two seemingly unrelated markets and increase correlations a recent phenomenon known as financialization yet some others argue recently correlations have decreased back to historical levels and the increase between 2008 and 2012 was merely due to a business cycle effect our results do not support one side at the expense of the other but rather shows that both factors are important in explaining the correlations between agricultural commodities and stocks furthermore we find that cits prefer to go back to their circle of competence under scarce liquidity and thus correlations decrease back to levels absent institutions hence low liquidity is a significant obstacle inhibiting financialization to occur

true monopolistic competition as a result of imperfect information the paper restates hart s 1985a 1985b definition of large group monopolistic competition distinguishes it from oligopolistic competition and raises the question of whether there are reasonable circumstances that give rise to true monopolistic competition as defined the purpose is to show that consumers imperfect information may create conditions that will turn an otherwise oligopolistic market into a truly monopolistically competitive one