exchange rates and the fiscal theory of the price level abstract this paper addresses exchange rate determination under a nominal interest peg in a two country cash in advance model under two types of cash in advance constraints if both governments peg the nominal interest rate on domestic bonds there is a continuum of equilibria each consistent with different nominal exchange rates and real resource allocations the well known finding of equilibrium uniqueness under a nominal interest rate peg in a closed economy does not survive in a multi country multi currency setting

carbon efficiency and carbon abatement costs of coal fired power enterprises a case of shanghai china abstract in this paper we adopt a non radial directional distance function to analyze the efficiency and shadow price of co2 emissions of coal fired power plants using a sample of shanghai s 20 coal fired power plants we find that the efficiency performance of power plants remained steady during the period 2007 2010 on average the carbon abatement costs of shanghai s power plants increased from 20 58 yuan ton to 39 67 yuan ton during 2007 2010 although the average shadow price of the power plants increased during the period the price was still well below shadow prices for the energy consumption of the industries and a little lower than the trading price in the ets markets in addition the paper discusses the implications of the findings

tests for parameter instability in regressions with i 1 processes this article derives the large sample distributions of lagrange multiplier lm tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models the fully modified estimator of phillips and hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends the test statistics considered include the supf test of quandt as well as the lm tests of nyblom and of nabeya and tanaka it is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes that is if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends the distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent it is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered an unstable intercept so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration the tests are applied to three data se

winning in professional team sports historical moments our aims in this paper are to 1 examine the higher moments of the distribution of winning percentages and 2 discover economic implications of such an examination the results prove useful to both current sports league policy questions and future research we speculate that the institutional differences between north american pro leagues and european soccer leagues will prove fruitful areas for future research on the determination of competitive balance jel c1 l83 z20

measuring unified efficiency of chinese fossil fuel power plants intermediate approach combined with group heterogeneity and window analysis abstract as a newly proposed method intermediate approach has several unique features relative to conventional radial and non radial approaches this study contributes to the dea literature by combining intermediate approach with group heterogeneity in a time horizon this extended methodology has two important advantages since it can separate inefficiency related to different production frontiers originated from heterogeneity issue and provide steady results of time effects across periods empirically this method is used to examine unified efficiency of chinese fossil fuel power plants at provincial levels from 2005 to 2015 all provinces are classified into two regional groups our main findings are as follows first there exists significant group heterogeneity between coastal and inland provinces where coastal provinces outperform inland provinces second there are considerable differences in unified efficiency measures across provinces for most observations best practice gap ratio is the most important driving factor furthermore the relative importance of three decomposed indicators varies sharply across provinces finally the concept of managerial disposability should attract sufficient attention when designing environmental policies thus there should be more combined contributions from eco technology advancements along with managerial efficiency improvements by corporate leaders and policy makers this can a new direction for china s environmental policy

meta data envelopment analysis finding a direction towards marginal profit maximization abstract this paper discusses a new meta dea approach to solve the problem of choosing direction vectors when estimating the directional distance function the proposed model emphasizes finding the direction for productivity improvement rather than estimating the score of efficiency focusing on planning over evaluation in fact the direction towards marginal profit maximization implies a step by step improvement and wait and see decision process which is more consistent with the practical decision making process an empirical study of u s coal fired power plants operating in 2011 validates the proposed model the results show that the efficiency measure using the proposed direction is consistent with all other indices with the exception of the direction towards the profit maximized benchmark we conclude that the marginal profit maximization is a useful guide for determining direction in the directional distance function

a literature study for dea applied to energy and environment abstract this study systematically summarizes previous research efforts on data envelopment analysis dea applied to energy and environment in the past four decades including concepts and methodologies on dea environmental assessment industrial developments are very important for all nations in terms of their economic prosperities a problem is that the development produces various pollutions on air water and other types of contaminations all of which are usually associated with our health problems and climate changes thus it is necessary for us to consider how to make a balance between economic success and pollution mitigation to maintain a high level of social sustainability in the world it is widely considered that dea is one of the methodologies to examine the level of sustainability this study examines a recent research trend on dea applications from 1980s to 2010s nowadays many researchers have paid serious attention on how to combat various difficulties in the areas of energy and environment as a result the number of articles on dea applications on energy and environment has dramatically increased particularly after 2000s however it is true that dea has strengths and drawbacks in the applications therefore it is very important for us to carefully use dea for guiding large policy issues and business strategies such as the global warming and climate change an underlying premise of this study is that technology innovation in engineering and natural science may solve various problems by linking it with political and managerial efforts the use of dea provides a methodological linkage among them so enhancing the practicality in mitigating problems due to climate change and environmental pollutions this literature study along with a summary on conceptual and methodological developments provides us with guidelines for our future research works on dea on energy and environment issues

price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand results from uecms and an application this paper presents an empirical analysis of the demand for maize milk powder butter and rice imports in cyprus using annual time series data covering the period 1975 1994 none of these products is produced in cyprus and all the necessary quantities are imported to meet domestic demand the primary objective of the paper is to derive long run price and income elasticities of import demand that can be used to analyse the impact of various policies such as the adoption of the common agricultural policy cap when and if the republic of cyprus joins the european union eu in so doing the paper takes on board some recent developments in time series econometrics the cointegration test used the bounds test is a recent test and is based on the estimation of an unrestricted error correction model uecm parsimonious models were derived using hendry s general to specific approach the estimated elasticities were subsequently used to quantify some of the implications for cyprus had the cap been ope

oil consumption and economic efficiency a comparative analysis of advanced developing and emerging economies abstract this paper investigates the economic efficiency oil consumption relationship in 42 countries during the period 1986 2006 in a first stage by using dea window analysis countries economic efficiencies are obtained in a second stage an econometric analysis based on robust gmm estimators reveals an inverted u shape relationship between oil consumption and economic efficiency in order to capture heterogeneities among countries development stages the analysis has been separated into two groups advanced economies and developing emerging economies the results show that advanced economies have much higher turning points compared to emerging and developing economies it appears that oil consumption increases countries economic efficiency in addition the consumption patterns of oil products and its derivatives have changed through years and among countries the different turning points from the econometric analysis indicate the dependence of oil consumption in advanced economies higher turning points is driven mainly by household purchasing activities and their standards of living transport housing and water food etc finally it appears that oil consumption is the main driver behind the progress of industrialization and urbanization regardless of the country s development stage

the mirage of fixed exchange rates this paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets contrary to popular wisdom industrialized country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack but if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange rate peg can be very high the dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 swedish and british crises and the 1994 95 mexican collapse we also discuss the small number of successful fixers

mexico s balance of payments crisis a chronicle of a death foretold this paper claims that the roots of mexico s balance of payments crisis are found in the prevailing high degree of capital mobility and financial globalization under these circumstances shifts in foreign capital flows and anticipation of a banking system bailout may produce large imbalances between stocks of financial assets and foreign reserves threatening the sustainability of currency pegs econometric analysis suggests that half of mexico s reserve losses could be accounted for by these phenomena large financial imbalances are also fertile ground for self fulfilling prophesy crises which lead devaluations to produce deep recessions these difficulties can be partly remedied by appropriate policies

temporal causality and the dynamics of judicial appellate caseload real income and socio economic complexity in australia this study applies granger causality tests within a multivariate error correction framework to examine the relationship between judicial caseload real income and urbanization for australia using annual data from 1904 to 2001 decomposition of variance and impulse response functions are also considered the granger causality results as well as the decomposition of variance and impulse response functions suggest that urbanization is the most exogenous of the three variables in both the long run and short run while judicial caseload and real income are relatively exogenous in the short run

the demand for rugby league evidence from causality tests during the last few years there has been an upsurge of interest in the determinants of the demand for professional team sports typically traditional demand estimation techniques are used to examine the determinants of attendance this paper attempts to show that the use of these techniques may be misleading existing studies implicitly or explicitly assume a direction of causality econometric estimation techniques are then applied to examine this direction of causality however no account is taken of possible spurious regression and time series properties of the data are not fully explored these omissions may have led to faulty policy recommendations in attempting to rectify traditional approaches this study will examine the time series properties of rugby league attendence and success prior to engaging in estimation

our fans in the north the demand for british rugby league this paper reports the results of estimating a single equation model of an attendance function for british rugby league over the seasons 1982 83 to 1990 91 the data are panel data covering virtually every team which played in the two division league over the nine year time period diagnostic tests indicate that the appropriate model is a semilog random effects model where the dependent variable is league attendance weighted by population the major results are as follows there are significant positive relationships between league attendance and various measures of team success although the direction of causality is moot team quality as proxied by the two divisions and the economic quality of team location as proxied by the unemployment rate but there is no discernible relationship between league attendance and either success in nonleague trophy competitions or measures of exceptional player quality

the economic design of sporting contests what is the optimal number of entrants in a race or the optimal number of teams in a baseball league what is the optimal structure of prizes for a golf tournament or degree of revenue sharing for a football championship how evenly balanced should the competing teams be in the nascar or formula one championships what is the maximum number of entrants per nation to the olympic games that should be permitted what quota of qualifying teams to the soccer world cup should be allocated to the developing nations

methodological comparison among radial non radial and intermediate approaches for dea environmental assessment abstract this study compares three dea approaches for environmental assessment all of which are designed to examine the level of simultaneous achievement on economic prosperity and environmental protection so measuring the degree of sustainability development dea standing for data envelopment analysis has been widely applied for performance assessment in the past five decades a new type of applications is referred to as dea environmental assessment and it measures the performance of many organizations that utilize inputs to produce not only desirable outputs e g electricity but also undesirable outputs e g co 2 in the previous studies dea based performance evaluation for environment assessment is methodologically classified into radial or non radial category recently a new intermediate approach analytically locating between the radial and non radial measures has been proposed as the third alternative a use of the intermediate approach has several unique features all of which cannot be found in the radial and non radial ones the new approach measures the degree of unified inefficiency on each production factor and determines the level of total unified inefficiency from the average of the sum of these inefficiency scores this study discusses the analytical features by comparing the intermediate approach with the radial and non radial ones the methodological comparison attempts to convey a message that dea is indeed an important methodology but not perfect rather it is an approximation approach to examine the performance of various organizations many dea applications on energy and environment often suffer from a methodological bias implying that different approaches produce different empirical results thus in guiding a large policy issue such as the global warming and climate change it is necessary for us to compare several different approaches e g models and concepts to derive a reliable empirical suggestion the importance of such a message is applicable to not only dea but also the other types of empirical research in natural and social sciences therefore this study discusses the methodological bias issue from the practicality of the three dea approaches in assessing various concerns on energy and environment

monetary policy and dividend growth in germany long run structural modelling versus bounds testing approach this study examines the long run relationship between monetary policy and dividend growth in germany for this purpose cointegration is tested for between both variables in the period 1974 to 2003 however problems related to spurious regression arise from the mixed order of integration of the series used from mutual causation between the variables and from the lack of a long run relationship among the variables of the model these problems are addressed by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration in addition to a more standard long run structural modelling approach in principle both procedures are capable of dealing with the controversial issue of the exogeneity of monetary policy vis a vis dividend growth however the structural modelling approach still leaves a certain degree of uncertainty about the integration properties of the interest rate and the dividend growth hence one feels legitimized to refer to the bounds testing procedure and to conclude that in the longer term short t

foreign direct investment pollution and economic growth evidence from malaysia the bounds test developed by pesaran et al 2001 is applied to examine the existence of a long run relationship between foreign direct investment fdi inflows pollution and output of malaysia granger causality tests are also utilized to test for the presence of the short run and long run causal relationship between these variables both fdi inflows and pollution have short run causal relationship on output output only has long run causal relationship on fdi inflows

evaluating the dynamic performance of energy portfolios empirical evidence from the dea directional distance function abstract in recent years the complex global energy commodity market has led to increased uncertainty for energy investment returns and tremendous challenges for investors to design appropriate energy portfolios therefore we employ four popular portfolio methods to determine energy portfolios based on daily fossil fuel futures prices during 2006 2015 moreover we use the dea window analysis method and dea directional distance function to comprehensively evaluate the dynamic performance of these energy portfolios based on the efficiency perspective the empirical results indicate that first to increase investment returns the mean variance method that exclusively emphasizes the maximization of returns shows the best performance however in order to decrease the volatility and risk of investment returns the mean variance method that aims to resist risk more than make profits and the bootstrap historical simulation value at risk var method have the best performance second when the global financial crisis broke out in the second half of 2008 and energy markets experienced a sharp downturn in the second half of 2014 the dea efficiency of energy portfolios appeared relatively lower than those of their neighboring periods regardless of which portfolio method is employed finally the average dea efficiencies of energy portfolios are all higher than those of single energy investment throughout the sample period except when the equally weighted method and the information entropy comprehensive index method are used meanwhile the mean variance method that prefers profit making to risk resisting possesses the highest average dea efficiency among various methods concerned

league level attendance and outcome uncertainty in u s pro sports leagues we extend the breakpoint literature regarding annual league level attendance and the impact of outcome uncertainty to the national basketball association national football league and national hockey league as our measures are different than past work on baseball we also apply our model to the american and national leagues attendance series for each league under consideration are not stationary overall but are stationary with break points no form of outcome uncertainty game play off or across seasons matters for attendance in hockey or baseball regardless of which game uncertainty variable is used under the measure of game uncertainty that recommends itself for football only play off uncertainty matters for attendance whether outcome uncertainty matters for basketball depends on the measure of game uncertainty situational similarities in the break points across leagues suggest general areas for future research jel l83 c22

self fulfilling risk predictions an application to speculative attacks abstract we show that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate the attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable we illustrate this point by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a first generation model of a speculative attack the model is further modified to take account of sterilization debt financed fiscal deficits and anticipatory price setting behavior we use the model to interpret the 1994 mexican peso crisis

dea environmental assessment in a time horizon malmquist index on fuel mix electricity and co2 of industrial nations abstract climate change and global warming become a major policy issue in the world economic activities produce not only desirable outputs e g electricity but also undesirable outputs e g co 2 emission the important policy issue is how each nation can balance between economic development and environmental protection to attain a sustainable society in attaining the sustainable society environmental assessment is increasingly important because it can serve as an initial step toward the green growth of each nation for the purpose this study proposes a new use of dea data environment analysis for environmental assessment in a time horizon the proposed use of dea incorporates malmquist index to examine the degree of a frontier shift among multiple periods the frontier shift indicates a technology progress and or managerial innovation during an observed period the index is conceptually separated into six subcomponents which are further divided into twelve different subcomponents six subcomponents two disposability concepts under the natural and managerial disposability in the index measurement it is necessary for us to consider a frontier crossover among different periods because technology innovation usually has a time lag until it really appears as an empirical application this study utilizes the proposed approach to identify the relationship among fuel mix electricity and co 2 of ten industrial nations this study finds three important empirical findings first there is a time lag in technology innovation on electricity generation and co 2 emission reduction consequently it is necessary to consider the existence of a frontier crossover in assessing the electric power industry second nuclear generation as found in france as well as hydro and renewable energy as found in netherlands are important for the development of a sustainable society although the former is associated with a very high level of risk and the latter has a limited generation capacity finally the electric power industry has been making a corporate effort to reduce the amount of co 2 emission by utilizing nuclear and renewable energy

speculative attack and the external constraint in a maximizing model of the balance of payments balance of payments models of speculative attack differ from non renewable resource models in that foreign exchange reserves may be borrowed from abroad this paper shows that in an idealized world where all private income is subject to lump sum taxation central bank reserves can become infinitely negative without violating the government s intertemporal budget constraint none the less a growth rate of domestic credit exceeding the world interest rate if maintained indefinitely leads to violation of the constraint in the paper s model given an assumed limit to official external borrowing the paper next analyses inevitable transitions between fixed and floating exchange rate regimes when individual preferences are explicitly specified in a discrete time deterministic model the collapse of a fixed rate may be characterized by two successive speculative attacks

impact of league restructuring on team sport attendances the case of rugby league an econometric analysis of attendances at rugby footbal league matches in england over the period 1966 1990 is presented the major finding is that the move from one to two leagues in 1973 had a substantial impact on attendances teams in the upper league experienced greater attendances ceteris paribuswhilst those in the lower league had reduced attendances

rational and self fulfilling balance of payments crises speculative attacks on a pegged exchange rate must sometimes occur ifasset price paths are to be free of abnormal profit opportunities suchattacks are fully rational as they reflect the market s response to aregime breakdown that is inevitable the authors shows that under someexpectations about policy balance of payments crises can also be purely self fulfilling events in such cases even a permanently viableregime may collapse and the economy will possess multiple equilibriacorresponding to different subjective assessments of the probability ofa crisis the behavior of the domestic interest rate will naturally reflect the possibility of a speculative attack copyright 1986 by american economic association

attendance and pricing at sporting events empirical results from granger causality tests for the melbourne cup this study applies granger causality tests to examine the relationship between attendance admission prices and real income at the melbourne cup which is australia s premier horseracing event and one of the world s leading handicap races the motivation for the paper is that while market demand suggests that causation should run from admission price to attendance it is equally plausible that sporting authorities could alter admission prices in response to a change in demand reflected in attendance the main findings are that in the short run there is unidirectional granger causality running from income to attendance attendance to admission price and income to admission price while in the long run both admission price and income granger cause attendance

collapsing exchange rate regimes some linear examples abstract we construct a pair of linear examples to study the collapse time of a fixed exchange rate regime the first example is a perfect foresight continuous time model which allows calculation of the exact collapse time and the tracking of reserves the second example is a discrete time stochastic model which yields an endogenous probability distribution over the collapse time and produces a forward discount of the exchange rate

location and survival in the national hockey league a model of professional sport franchises is introduced and used to explore the locational and other determi nants of profitability particular attention is paid to the effect of location on attendance market power and long run team quality whe n estimated using data for the national hockey league in 1977 78 the model indicates that location has an effect on each of these and tha t their combined effect on profitability is effective in explaining p rior and subsequent decisions concerning league expansion and franchi se relocation a number of other matters are also addressed includin g league arguments for antitrust exemption and league policies to res trict expansion copyright 1988 by blackwell publishing ltd

the demand for cricket the case of the john player league multiple regression analysis is used to estimate attendance functions 1976 and 1977 for the john player league one of the one day competitions in english top class cricket likely determinants of attendance are grouped according to whether they are economic locational team performance player attraction seasonal and residual preference factors the results suggest implications for the management of the game in respect of pricing strategy scheduling the structure of competition player qualification rules payment scales and television policy

the timing of exchange rate collapse abstract recent episodes of exchange rate collapse have renewed interest in models of speculative attacks these episodes have been considered by some observers to be inconsistent with fundamentals models of attack since there was no prolonged period of policy misalignment and declining reserves as required by such models this paper develops a fundamentals model in which collapse is instantaneous at the time of unexpected policy change and or a change in the expectations of future policy even for a reserve abundant country

performance and revenue in professional league football evidence from granger causality tests using a dataset comprising annual performance measured by final league position and gate revenue for 77 football league clubs which maintained unbroken league membership between 1946 and 1994 the relationship between performance and revenue is investigated using cointegration and causality tests a cointegrating relationship between performance and revenue is established in only 10 cases out of 77 although it is argued that some caution is required in interpreting these results due to the low power of the relevant tests in relatively small samples in granger causality tests more evidence is found of causality running from lagged revenue to current performance than of causality in the opposite direction while the dependence of performance on revenue seems to be greater for the smaller clubs than for the larger these results lend empirical support to the popular view that unless checked by mechanisms for revenue redistribution within the league the natural tendency is for success to become concen

evaluating the performance of chinese fossil fuel power plants by data environment analysis an application of three intermediate approaches in a time horizon abstract to our knowledge the previous studies did not answer the following questions how much does window analysis differ from the original data envelopment analysis dea approaches and how to develop dea window analysis to address these questions we propose three intermediate approaches cross sectional approach window efficiency analysis and window index approach and statistically compare their performances the underlying concern is that we need to examine whether a metrological bias exists in our study the concern is important in guiding policy issues such as energy policy and climate change empirically the proposed approaches are applied to measure the unified efficiency of fossil fuel power plants at a provincial level in china from 2007 to 2017 since these plants are important energy consumers and co2 emitters we obtain two important implications first considerable differences were confirmed among the three approaches thus implying an existence of the methodological bias second beijing the capital of china outperformed the other provinces in terms of their measures since the government has paid serious attention to air pollution emitted from fossil fuel power plants the governmental regulation in beijing is a good example of pollution prevention in china it is expected that the success on beijing will be disseminated to the other provinces

dea environmental assessment on us petroleum industry non radial approach with translation invariance in time horizon abstract this study empirically assesses the performance of the petroleum industry focusing upon independent companies in the united states us for the empirical study we use the data envelopment analysis dea that has been widely used for environmental assessment and performance measurement the conventional use of dea requests that all observations in the data set should be positive prohibiting an occurrence of zero and or negative values the requirement of non negative value is inconsistent with the reality of us petroleum industry because many oil firms recently experience negative shocks in financial performance to overcome the obstacle this study discusses the property of translation invariance under undesirable congestion e g capacity limit in the transportation pipeline network and desirable congestion e g green technology innovation based on the non radial models the property implies that the unified efficiency measure should be not influenced even if production factors are shifted toward the same direction by adding or subtracting a specific real number the property makes it possible that we can evaluate the performance of firms whose production factors contain zero and or negative values this study is empirically concerned with practical implications of translation invariance from energy and environmental perspectives in addition this study examines the proposed environmental assessment in a time horizon for the purpose this study uses window analysis to examine an efficiency change along with a time shift our empirical investigation finds the following three implications first under the natural disposability the oil firms efficiency growth rates have become less than unity implying the industry wide difficulty or inability to cut back their drilling and production operations second all firms have been under regulatory and stakeholder pressures on air pollution therefore the efficiency growth rates under managerial disposability have not exhibited a major change during the observed annual periods finally such implications are statistically reconfirmed by regression analysis that examines how the change of energy price influences unified efficiencies under natural and managerial disposability an exception can be found in the natural disposability where energy prices influence their efficiency growths thus an increase in energy prices is important in maintaining a high level of efficiency growths in the us petroleum industry

attendance demand and core support evidence from limited overs cricket in this paper we construct and estimate a model for match attendances in english one day limited overs league cricket our dataset separates pay at gate spectators from club members enabling us to distinguish between the attendance decisions of casual spectators and those of the potentially more committed core supporters in addition to providing a more direct analysis of the relatively underdeveloped issue of core support we also investigate variability within the core apart from providing further evidence regarding demand determination in professional team sports we consider some specific policy implications particular to the peculiar sport of cricket

social sustainability measured by intermediate approach for dea environmental assessment chinese regional planning for economic development and pollution prevention abstract this study examines the level of simultaneous achievement on economic prosperity and environmental protection so measuring the level of sustainability by a newly proposed intermediate approach conventionally dea data envelopment analysis for performance evaluation was used to assess various economic activities of organizations that utilized inputs e g the number of employees to yield desirable outputs e g the number of products the methodology was usually classified into radial or non radial category in an effort of extending it to environmental assessment dea needs to incorporate undesirable outputs e g the amount of co 2 into the computational framework this type of assessment is referred to as dea environmental assessment the proposed intermediate approach develops a new type of dea environmental assessment by combining the analytical features of radial approach with those of non radial approach the new approach measures the level of unified inefficiency on each production factor and determines the level of total unified inefficiency from the average of the sum of these inefficiency scores a rank sum test and a mean test are additionally incorporated into the proposed intermediate approach such a combination enhances the statistical capability as an application this study examines the level of sustainability related to 30 provinces in china from 2003 to 2014 the application finds four policy implications first it is important for china to allocate its resources to western provinces at a level that it has used for coastal developments second the government continues to reinforce the policy making effort on environmental protection by paying attention to central and southern regions the chinese industries need to transfer toward green energy the transfer should be efficiently executed for their future developments third the government has focused on the sustainability development in urban provinces and then has gradually shifted the policy influence toward rural areas finally the policy implementation needs a time lag until it becomes effective the time lag on economic policy is longer than that of environmental policy the economic policy has historically produced a regional imbalance often leading to educational and income imbalances among chinese provinces