bureaucratic minimal squawk behavior theory and evidence from regulatory agencies this paper develops a model in which a desire to avoid criticism prompts otherwise public spirited bureaucrats to behave inefficiently decisions are taken to keep interest groups quiet and to keep mistakes out of the public eye the policy implications of this minimal squawk behavior are at odds with the view that agencies should be structured to minimize the threat of capture an empirical test using data from us state public utility commissions rejects the capture hypothesis and is consistent with the squawk hypothesis longer puc terms of office are associated with a higher incidence of rate reviews and lower household electricity bills jel d73 l51 l97 l98

some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetary policy on exchange rates this paper investigates the effects of shocks to u s monetary policy on exchange rates we consider three measures of these shocks orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the romer and romer index of monetary policy in sharp contrast to the literature we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates specifically according to our results a contractionary shock to u s monetary policy leads to i persistent significant appreciations in u s nominal and real exchange rates and ii significant persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of u s interest rates

mean reversion in real exchange rates evidence and implications for forecasting abstract the stationarity of real exchange rates over the recent flexible exchange rate period is an issue that has long bedeviled researchers in international finance using a constrained multivariate framework this paper provides the strongest evidence yet that real exchange rates were mean reverting over the 1973 93 period we also investigate shifts in long run real exchange rates which may be important for the purpose of forecasting out of sample forecasting shows that the random walk model is outperformed by a mean stationary model especially at long horizons in addition there are substantial forecasting benefits from using a multivariate approach

quality of service efficiency and scale in network industries an analysis of european electricity distribution quality of service qos is of major economic significance in natural monopoly infrastructure industries in this article we present an efficiency analysis of electricity distribution networks from seven european countries we apply the stochastic frontier analysis method to multi output translog input distance function models to estimate cost efficiency and scale economies we show that introducing the quality dimension into the analysis affects estimated efficiency significantly especially that smaller utilities efficiency seems to decrease our results emphasize that qos should be an integrated part of efficiency and economic analysis of regulated natural monopolies

commitment and fairness in a dynamic regulatory relationship this paper considers a multiperiod model of a regulated firm that has stationary private information which may be revealed through performance if it cannot make commitments to future policies the regulator has an incentive to exploit any information the firm reveals and laffont and tirole show that there is no regulatory policy that is separating over any closed interval a fairness arrangement is proposed in which the firm agrees not to quit if in future periods the regulator allows it to earn a nonnegative profit given the type it revealed in earlier periods the properties of such arrangements are studied and an example is presented in which both the firm and the regulator prefer a fairness arrangement to a policy feasible without commitment

dynamic natural monopoly regulation time inconsistency moral hazard and political environments this paper quantitatively assesses time inconsistency moral hazard and political ideology in monopoly regulation of electricity distribution we specify and estimate a dynamic model of utility regulation featuring investment and moral hazard we find that 1 there is under investment in electricity distribution capital aiming to reduce power outages 2 more conservative political environments have higher regulated returns and 3 more electricity is lost in distribution in more conservative political environments we quantify the value of regulatory commitment in inducing more investment conservative regulators mitigate welfare losses due to time inconsistency but worsen losses from moral hazard

confidence intervals for half life deviations from purchasing power parity existing point estimates of half life deviations from purchasing power parity ppp around 3 5 years suggest that the speed of convergence is extremely slow this article assesses the degree of uncertainty around these point estimates by using local to unity asymptotic theory to construct confidence intervals that are robust to high persistence in small samples the empirical evidence suggests that the lower bound of the confidence interval is between four and eight quarters for most currencies which is not inconsistent with traditional price stickiness explanations however the upper bounds are infinity for all currencies so we cannot provide conclusive evidence in favor of ppp either

regulatory risk vertical integration and upstream investment abstract we investigate the impact of regulatory risk on vertical integration and upstream investment by a regulated firm that provides an essential input to downstream competitors regulatory risk reflects uncertainty about the regulator s commitment to a regulatory policy that promotes the regulated firm s noncontractible investment we show that when the regulator sets the regulatory policy after the vertical industry structure has been established some degree of regulatory risk is ex ante socially beneficial regulatory risk makes vertical integration profitable and stimulates high upstream investment at a lower social cost this occurs for moderate costs of high investment and firms small risk aversion our analysis sheds new light on some relevant empirical patterns in vertically related markets

the short run dynamics of inter state migration a space time economic adjustment model of in migration to fast growing states ballard k p and clark g l 1981 the short run dynamics of inter state migration a space time economic adjustment model of in migration to fast growing states reg studies 15 213 228 interregional migration is analyzed with respect to its short run responsiveness to economic fluctuations and its efficiency as a spatial labour market allocation mechanism using a space time analytical framework in migration to four fast growing states of the united states is analyzed over the period 1958 1975 it is shown via a time series model employing a koyck distributed lag methodology that short run in migration is in fact responsive to economic fluctuations both employment and turnover variables figure prominently in this regard by a cross sectional analysis it is also shown that in migrants to fast growing states do not necessarily come from depressed or low growth regions thus interregional migration may not be an efficient allocator of labour across the aggregate spatial system in the short or long

smooth breaks and non linear mean reversion post bretton woods real exchange rates the recent literature on purchasing power parity ppp has emphasized the role of two phenomena that may lead to the rejection of the ppp hypothesis structural breaks and non linear adjustment induced by transaction costs these two hypotheses are analyzed separately in the literature we develop tests for unit roots that account jointly for structural breaks and non linear adjustment structural breaks are modeled by means of a fourier function that allows for infrequent smooth temporary mean changes and is hence compatible with long run ppp nonlinear adjustment is modeled by means of an estar model our tests present good finite sample properties the tests are applied to a set of 15 oecd countries rers and are able to reject the null of a unit root in 14 cases the breaks are usually associated with the great appreciation and later depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s and the estar adjustment appears to play an important role

moral hazard incentive contracts and risk evidence from procurement deadlines and late penalties are widely used to incentivize effort tighter deadlines and higher penalties induce higher effort but increase the agent s risk we model how these contract terms affect the work rate and time to completion in a procurement setting characterizing the efficient contract design using new micro level data on minnesota highway construction contracts that includes day by day information on work plans hours worked and delays we find evidence of ex post moral hazard contractors adjust their effort level during the course of the contract in response to unanticipated productivity shocks in a way that is consistent with our theoretical predictions we next build an econometric model that endogenizes the completion time as a function of the contract terms and the productivity shocks and simulate how commuter welfare and contractor costs vary across different terms and shocks accounting for the traffic delays caused by construction switching to a more efficient contract design would increase welfare by 22 5 of the contract value while increasing the standard deviation of contractor costs a measure of risk by less than 1 of the contract value

real exchange rate adjustment in european transition countries abstract in single equation tests real exchange rates show mean reversion for nine of 10 central and eastern european transition countries for the period january 1993 to december 2005 because of the shift from controlled to market economies and accompanying crises failed policy regimes and changes in exchange rate regimes unit root tests for transition countries often require allowance for structural changes accounting for structural breaks gives substantially faster mean reversion speeds than those found for major industrialized countries these fast adjustment speeds are plausible transition countries had perhaps 10 years to make unprecedented adjustments required for accession to the european union a number of papers have applied non linear models to the central and eastern european countries this paper investigates four non linear models and compares them with piece wise linear break models the break models appear superior in detecting mean reversion for the central and eastern european transition countries

median unbiased estimation in df gls regressions and the ppp puzzle using median unbiased estimation recent research has questioned the validity of rogoff s remarkable consensus of 3 5 year half lives of deviations from ppp these half life estimates however are based on estimates from regressions where the resulting unit root test has low power we extend median unbiased estimation to the df gls regression of elliott rothenberg and stock 1996 we find that median unbiased estimation based on this regression has the potential to tighten confidence intervals for half lives using long horizon real exchange rate data we find that the typical lower bound of the confidence intervals for median unbiased half lives is just under 3 years thus while previous confidence intervals for half lives are consistent with virtually anything our tighter confidence intervals now rule out economic models with nominal rigidities as candidates for explaining the observed behavior of real exchange rates therefore while we obtain more information using efficient unit root tests on longer term data this information moves us away from solving the ppp puzzle

the new open economy macroeconomics of government debt in this paper we introduce an overlapping generations structure of the blanchard type in a new open economy macroeconomics model this allows us to study a wider range ofscal shocks compared to the traditional mundell fleming and to the baseline redux models one important policy implication of our model is that the tax cut imple mented in the us in 2001 might have contributed to the appreciation of the dollar vis a vis the euro in contrast the imposition ofscal constraint such as the golden rule proposed by the uk government can have opposite exchange rate e ects

was it real the exchange rate interest differential relation over the modern floating rate period in this paper we explore the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials in the united states germany japan and the united kingdom contrary to theories based on the joint hypothesis that domestic prices are sticky and monetary disturbances are predominant we find little evidence of a stable relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates we consider both in sample and out of sample tests one hypothesis that is consistent with our findings is that real disturbances such as productivity shocks may be a major source of exchange rate volatility this paper investigates the empirical relationship between major currency real exchange rates and real interest rates over the modern post march 1973 flexible rate experience the exchange rates examined here include the dollar mark dollar yen and dollar pound rates our two major findings are as follows first the data do not indicate a strong correspondence between real interest rate differentials short term or long term and real exchange rates this finding appears to conflict with the predictions of most monetary and portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination though the conflict can be substantially reconciled if aggregate disturbances are primarily real in nature i e changes in productivity tastes etc it is true that in many cases the sign of the estimated exchange rate interest rate differential relationship is consistent with the possible predominance of financial market disturbances but the relationship is not stable enough to be statistically significant second although one does find some evidence of a unit root in both real exchange rates and long term but not shortterm real interest differentials these two series do not appear to be linearly cointegrated hence the nonstationarity or near nonstationarity in the two series cannot be attributed to the same factor in section i we briefly describe a class of small scale monetary models of exchange rate determination the importance of this class of models for empirical work derives from its strong predictions about how the exchange rate will move

on the failure of purchasing power parity for bilateral exchange rates after 1973 point estimates suggest mean reversion in real exchange rates however it still remains uncomfortable that models without any mean reversion are often compatible with data from the floating period studies with data over longer periods find mean reversion but at the cost of mixing in data from earlier exchange rate arrangements pooling the floating period data potentially mixes country pairs with and without mean reversion we examine tests for mean reversion for individual country pairs where greater power against close alternatives is gained through modeling other economic variables with the real exchange rate by increasing the power of the tests we find strong evidence of mean reversion

understanding the effects of homeownership and regional unemployment levels on internal migration during the economic crisis in spain the spanish labour market is characterised by high levels of unemployment which have increased during the global economic crisis spain is also a country which is characterised by a very high percentage of homeownership with more than 83 of households being owner occupiers both regional levels of unemployment and homeownership are known to be important factors influencing the spatial mobility decisions of households but little is known about how these factors influenced mobility during the recent economic crisis this paper uses rich individual level microdata from the last two spanish censuses 2001 and 2011 to study the effect of homeownership and regional unemployment levels on both short and long distance mobility our finding suggest that the role influence and interconnection of unemployment and homeownership in mobility decision have changed in the last decade

net foreign assets and the exchange rate redux revived abstract we revisit obstfeld and rogoff s 1995 results on exchange rate dynamics in a two country monetary model with incomplete asset markets stationary net foreign assets and endogenous monetary policy the nominal exchange rate exhibits a unit root under flexible prices it also depends on the stock of real net foreign assets with sticky prices the exchange rate depends on the past gdp differential along with net foreign assets endogenous monetary policy and asset dynamics have consequences for exchange rate overshooting a persistent relative productivity shock results in delayed overshooting under both flexible and sticky prices a persistent relative interest rate shock generates undershooting under flexible prices

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

local persistence and the ppp hypothesis abstract this paper examines the statistical properties of the bilateral real exchange rates of the u s vs france germany and the u k during the post bretton woods period and draws implications on the purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis contrary to traditional studies that consider only unit root and stationary processes to describe the real exchange rate behavior this paper considers an in between process the locally persistent process the empirical results demonstrate the following two findings 1 locally persistent processes describe the real exchange rate movements better than unit root and stationary processes which implies that ppp reversion occurs and ppp holds in the long run 2 the confidence intervals for half life deviations from ppp under local persistence tend to be narrower than those obtained by assuming the adf and the local to unity models

on cross country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates abstract previous findings of long run purchasing power parity come mainly from data for industrial countries raising the issue of whether the results suffer sample selection bias and exaggerate the general relevance of parity reversion this study uncovers substantial cross country heterogeneity in the persistence of deviations from parity the results show that it is more likely rather than less likely to find parity reversion for developing countries than industrial countries although some persistence variations may partly reflect country differences in structural characteristics such as inflation experience and government spending a considerable portion of those variations seems unaccounted for

does purchasing power parity hold sometimes regime switching in real exchange rates standard unit root tests are not very powerful in drawing conclusions regarding the validity of purchasing power parity ppp rather than asking whether ppp holds throughout the whole sample period we examine in this study if ppp holds sometimes by employing hamilton type 1989 markov regime switching models when at least one of multiple regimes is stationary ppp holds locally within the regime there are indeed various reasons that we should expect that the persistence of real exchange rates changes over time employing five real exchange rates spanning more than 100 years we find herein strong evidence that the strength of ppp varies during the sample periods and that there exist stationary regimes in which ppp holds throughout the article we also make comparisons to previous markov regime switching estimation results by kanas 2006 on the same data series the new markov switching model selection criterion of smith et al 2006 which is devised especially for discriminating markov regime s

behavior of the firm under regulatory constraint a recent article by akira takayama discusses an earlier paper by harvey averch and leland l johnson on fair rate of return regulation of public utilities although takayama p 255 agrees with averch and johnson s general conclusions that a firm will tend to increase its investment with the introduction of an active constraint on its rate of return he criticizes the a j argument as being confusing ambiguous and in error takayama then attempts a clarification and presents a new formulation which leads to the a j result quoted above this comment will discuss several of takayama s criticisms in addition to showing that the so called a j effect cannot be derived from the basic assumptions made by both averch and johnson and takayama 1 we will show that the very assumptions used to prove the a j effect by defining the region of x require an assumption that the a j effect exists in the first place

preferences and incentives of appointed and elected public officials evidence from state trial court judges we study how two selection systems for public officials appointment and election affect policy outcomes focusing on state court judges and their criminal sentencing decisions first under appointment policy congruence with voter preferences is attained through selecting judges with homogeneous preferences in contrast under election judges face strong reelection incentives while selection on preferences is weak second the effectiveness of election in attaining policy congruence critically depends on payoffs from the job which implies that the effectiveness of election may vary substantially across public offices third reelection incentives may discourage judges with significant human capital from holding office jel d72 k41 understanding systems concerning the selection and retention of public officials and their effects on policy outcomes has long been an important issue in economics e g barro 1973 and ferejohn 1986 in this paper we compare two selection systems for public officials appointment by the head of the executive branch and election by popular votes we study the influence of the selection systems on public officials behavior focusing on state court judges and their criminal sentencing decisions specifically we quantitatively assess the separate role of preference heterogeneity versus reelection incentives in determining sentencing decisions we focus on the behavior of state court judges in the state of kansas which has within state variation in the selection systems 1 we conduct three key analyses

regulation under asymmetric information in water utilities water utilities are reminiscent of network industries and are characterized by important fixed costs these factors contribute to a single firm serving an area justifying public intervention on pricing about one fourth of u s water utilities are private and subject to regulation regulators are unlikely to be perfectly informed and regulation is unlikely to be costlessly implemented these inherent imperfections have led economists to consider the incentive properties of regulatory procedures using the economics of information see david baron 1989 the empirical literature on regulation has focused on evaluating the effects of regulation on prices firms costs efficiency and innovation in such sectors as airlines electricity and energy as surveyed by paul l joskow and nancy l rose 1989 few of these empirical studies rely on the so called theory of regulation regarding the water industry there is an abundant literature on residential water demand firms cost and their efficiency given their public versusprivate nature relying on a model with asymmetric information and a sample of california water utilities frank a wolak 1994 assesses the consumer welfare loss due to asymmetric information and shows that the model with asymmetric information provides a superior description of the cost and demand data to the model under perfect information analyzing pricing for residential water is an important policy issue as the sector recently experienced price increases the problem is even more acute in california because of a high residential demand for water along with population growth water scarcity and the probability of severe droughts relying on a new dataset of 32 districts in california over the 1995 2000 period we analyze regulation of private water utilities for every district the california public utilities commission cpuc chooses a price for water an access fee per meter and a rate of return on capital to satisfy firms revenue requirements we assume that the cpuc is imperfectly informed about firms labor efficiency following david besanko 1984 and wolak 1994 we develop a model in which the firm s capital is used as a screening variable in particular the model has the features of a rate of return regulation we show how the rate of return and the access fee can be determined optimally to control firms rents we then adopt a structural approach to analyze the data a multistep estimator allows us to estimate the key parameters of the model the empirical results show price inelasticity an income effect slightly decreasing returns to scale and a concentration of efficient firms the computation of the optimal rate of return and access fee shows that the cpuc would tend to be cautious by allowing a lower than optimal rate and access fee relying on the estimated parameters a first experiment evaluates the cost of asymmetric information the price would be significantly lower resulting in a gain of consumer surplus a second experiment consists of simulating the outcome of an optimal price cap following the farid gasmi et al 2002 model the price cap became a popular regulatory tool in the 1980s such as for electricity though the incentives resulting in price cap regulation have been questioned by economists the counterfactual simulations show a price increase which results in a significant loss in consumer surplus the increase in firms profit does not however counterbalance this loss supporting the relevance of the actual rate of return mechanism

mobility housing and labour markets in times of economic crises this special issue addresses the effects of the most recent financial and economic crisis starting in 2007 on mobility housing and labour markets in order to learn some lessons for the future t

on the empirical failure of purchasing power parity tests summary empirical research on the validity of the purchasing power parity ppp condition is generally based on real exchange rates built using the consumer price index cpi but fails to provide clear support to ppp in this paper we show theoretically that even if the law of one price lop holds for traded goods cpi based real exchange rates are not mean reverting and are neither stationary nor integrated therefore both unit root and stationarity tests should reject their null our theoretical results are validated both by simulations and an empirical application copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

regulation asymmetric information and auditing this article analyzes a model of a regulated firm that is better informed about its cost function than is the regulator by auditing at a cost however the regulator is assumed to be able to observe the realized cost of the firm if the regulator finds that the firm had misrepresented its costs at the time at which prices were set he can order a refund to consumers in the optimal policy the regulator audits when the firm reports for pricing purposes that its costs will be high and orders a refund when the auditfinds that realized costs are lower than anticipated given the original report a separation result that obtains for an important case indicates that the initial pricing decision is independent of the auditing decision the auditing decision however depends on the price that was initially set the optimal auditing strategy is characterized and the nature of the welfare gains are identified the methodology used in the analysis involves the characterization of an equilibrium of a revelation game with an ex post observable

incentive regulatory policies the case of public transit systems in france we assess the empirical relevance of the new theory of regulation using a principal agent framework to study the regulatory schemes used in the french urban transport industry taking the current regulatory schemes as given the model of supply and demand provides estimates for the firms inefficiency the effort of managers and the cost of public funds it allows us to derive the first best and second best regulatory policies for each network and compare them with the actual situation in terms of welfare loss or gain fixed price policies lie between fully informed and uninformed second best schemes cost plus contracts are dominated by any type of second best contract from these results we may conjecture that fixed price contracts call for better informed regulators

real exchange rates under the gold standard purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics empirically it is also one of the most hotly contested numerous recent studies for example have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post bretton woods float and have reached different conclusions we assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons first the post 1973 data contain by definition only a very limited amount of the low frequency information relevant for examination of long run parity second the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to admissible low frequency dynamics both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper with dramatic results we construct a new data set of 16 real exchange rates covering more than a century of the classic gold standard period and we study deviations from parity using long memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean

the common trend and transitory dynamics in real exchange rate fluctuations this study examines the behaviour of both common trend ct and transitory components of real exchange rate rer fluctuations under the current float the ct component is in most cases found to be sizeable albeit its relative importance can vary considerably across major currencies and its estimate can be sensitive to whether or not long run purchasing power parity ppp is imposed on the data further analysis suggests that both ct and transitory innovations are linked much more to interest rate changes than to productivity changes accordingly it is interest rate not productivity disturbances that drive the highly persistent rer

multi country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float abstract using panel data for the united states and 22 other oecd countries for the current float this paper presents evidence that despite substantial short term perturbations purchasing power parity actually performed much better than commonly believed average rates of growth of real exchange rates over long horizons bear little relationship either to average rates of growth of nominal exchange rates or to average inflation differentials thus implying a close to one to one relation between average rates of growth of nominal exchange rates and average inflation differentials panel data variants of standard unit root tests suggest that the real exchange rates of these countries can be characterized as mean reverting

oversight of long term investment by short lived regulators certain regulators of economic activity like utility regulators and government procurement officers typically serve for relatively short periods of time the authors consider how to best motivate long term investment in the presence of short lived regulators a firm s investment decision is overseen by one regulator whether the investment is ultimately adopted is determined by a second distinct regulator each regulator is concerned with the welfare of its own contemporary population transfer payments between populations are limited and relevant data cannot be verified by third parties underadoption and underinvestment on average result although overinvestment may also occur under the optimal regulatory charter copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the migration of technical workers using panel data on the danish population we estimated the revealed preferences of scientists and engineers for the places in which they choose to work our results indicate that these technical workers exhibit substantial sensitivity to differences in wages but that they have even stronger preferences for living close to family and friends the magnitude of these preferences moreover suggests that the greater geographic mobility of scientists and engineers relative to the population as a whole stems from more pronounced variation across regions in the wages that they can expect these results remain robust to estimation on a sample of individuals who must select new places of work for reasons unrelated to their preferences those who had been employed at establishments that discontinued operations

public utility regulation and bond ratings this paper investigates the extent to which political factors which vary across state public utility commissions affect electric utility bond ratings the paper focuses on the effects of the commissioner selection method election or appointment and other politically determined variables on bond ratings of privately owned and regulated electric utilities the paper develops a generalization of ordered logit that allows the latent risk measure to have a skewed and thicktailed distribution the distributional assumption underlying the standard logit model is strongly rejected empirically both political variables and financial variables are determinants of electric utility bond ratings and election of the puc has a strong negative effect on bond ratings

the harrod balassa samuelson hypothesis real exchange rates and their long run equilibrium the harrod balassa samuelson hypothesis frictionless perfectly competitive traded goods markets justify thinking of purchasing power parity ppp as the main driver of exchange rates in the long run but differences in the traded non traded sectors of economies tend to be persistent and affect movements in local price levels in ways that upset the ppp balance the underpinning of the harrod balassa samuelson hypothesis hbs this paper uses panel data techniques on a broad collection of countries to investigate the long run properties of the ppp hbs equilibrium using novel local projection methods for cointegrated systems these semi parametric methods isolate the long run behavior of the data from contaminating factors such as frictions not explicitly modelled and thought to have effects only in the short run absent the short run effects we find that the estimated speed of reversion to long run equilibrium is much higher in addition the hbs effects means that the real exchange rate is converging not to a steady mean but to a slowly to a moving target the common failure to properly model this effect also biases the estimated speed of reversion downwards thus the so called

corruption and inefficiency theory and evidence from electric utilities we investigate the determinants of the efficiency of firms with a focus on the role of corruption we construct a simple theoretical model where corruption increases factor requirements of firms because it diverts managerial effort away from factor coordination we then exploit a unique dataset comprising firm level information on 80 electricity distribution firms from 13 latin american countries for the years 1994 to 2001 as predicted by the model we find that more corruption in the country is strongly associated with more inefficient firms in the sense that they employ more inputs to produce a given level of output the economic magnitude of the effects is large the results hold both in models with country and firm fixed effects the results survive several robustness checks including different measures of output and efficiency and instrumenting for corruption other elements associated with inefficiency are public ownership inflation and lack of law and order but corruption appears to play a separate and more robust role

measuring the dynamic efficiency costs of regulators preferences municipal water utilities in the arid west evidence suggests that municipal water utility administrators in the western us price water significantly below its marginal cost and in so doing inefficiently exploit aquifer stocks and induce social surplus losses this paper empirically identifies the objective function of those managers measures the deadweight losses resulting from their price discounting decisions and recovers the efficient water pricing policy function from counterfactual experiments in doing so the estimation uses a continuous butconstrained control version of a nested fixed point algorithm in order to measure the important intertemporal consequences of groundwater pricing decisions

linear or nonlinear cointegration in the purchasing power parity relationship we test long run purchasing power parity ppp within a general model of cointegration of linear and nonlinear form nonlinear cointegration is tested with rank tests of breitung 2001 we determine first the order of integration of each variable using monthly data from the post bretton woods era for g 10 countries in many cases prices are i 2 whereas all exchange rates are i 1 however there are several countries that have a price level that linearly cointegrates with the us price level so that this combination is i 1 overall we find some though limited evidence for nonlinear and also linear cointegration for the weak version of ppp

local amenities and life cycle migration do people move for jobs or fun abstract do households move for jobs or fun and where do they go when they move we address these questions using the 1970 2000 us census based on a panel of quality of life and business environment measures households prefer msas in warm coastal areas and non metropolitan locations while firms prefer large growing cities in addition cities with improving business environments acquire increasing shares of workers especially workers with high levels of human capital cities with improving consumer amenities become relatively more populated by retirees further analysis of individual level migration decisions indicates that regardless of marital status young highly educated households tend to move towards places with higher quality business environments this tendency is especially pronounced among highly educated couples who are more subject to job market co location problems in contrast regardless of education couples near retirement tend to move away from places with favorable business environments and towards places with highly valued consumer amenities these patterns help explain why areas unattractive to both households and business have struggled as with upstate new york while the sun belt and other regions are thriving

aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives we consider the problem of providing incentives over time for an agent with constant absolute risk aversion the optimal compensation scheme is found to be a linear function of a vector of n accounts which count the number of times that each of the n kinds of observable events occurs the number n is independent of the number of time periods so the accounts may entail substantial aggregation in a continuous time version of the problem the agent controls the drift rate of a vector of accounts that is subject to frequent small random fluctuations the solution is as if the problem were the static one in which the agent controls only the mean of a multivariate normal distribution and the principal is constrained to use a linear compensation rule if the principal can observe only coarser linear aggregates such as revenues costs or profits the optimal compensation scheme is then a linear function of those aggregates the combination of exponential utility normal distributions and linear compensation schemes makes computations and comparative statics easy to do as we illustrate we interpret our linearity results as deriving in part from the richness of the agent s strategy space which makes it possible for the agent to undermine and exploit complicated nonlinear functions of the accounting aggregates

using ex ante approaches to obtain credible signals for value in contingent markets evidence from the field while contingent valuation remains the only option available for measurement of total economic value of nonmarketed goods the method has been criticized due to its hypothetical nature we analyze field experimental data to evaluate two ex ante approaches to attenuating hypothetical bias directly comparing value statements across four distinct referenda hypothetical cheap talk consequential and real our empirical evidence suggests two major findings hypothetical responses are significantly different from real responses and responses in the consequential and cheap talk treatments are statistically indistinguishable from real responses we review the potential for each method to produce reliable results in the field

the purchasing power parity debate originally propounded by the 16th century scholars of the university of salamanca the concept of purchasing power parity ppp was revived in the interwar period in the context of the debate concerning the appropriate level at which to re establish international exchange rate parities broadly accepted as a long run equilibrium condition in the post war period it first was advocated as a short run equilibrium by many international economists in the first few years following the breakdown of the bretton woods system in the early 1970s and then increasingly came under attack on both theoretical and empirical grounds from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s accordingly over the last three decades a large literature has built up that examines how much the data deviated from theory and the fruits of this research have provided a deeper understanding of how well ppp applies in both the short run and the long run since the mid 1990s larger datasets and nonlinear econometric methods in particular have improved estimation as deviations narrowed between real exchange rates and ppp so did the gap narrow between theory and data and some degree of confidence in long run ppp began to emerge again in this respect the idea of long run ppp now enjoys perhaps its strongest support in more than 30 years a distinct reversion in economic thought

immobility and insecure labour markets an active response to precarious employment this article explores how people experience and respond to a post industrial labour market context through residential im mobility focusing on places that are represented through a range of offic

searching for stationarity purchasing power parity under the current float abstract using panel data methods we investigate long run purchasing power parity by testing for unit roots in real exchange rates of industrial countries under the current float the evidence against the unit root hypothesis is stronger for larger than for smaller panels for monthly than for quarterly data and when the german mark rather than the united states dollar is used as the base currency while we find that accounting for serial correlation considerably weakens the evidence against the unit root null the results as a whole are consistent with long run purchasing power parity

covariate selection for testing purchasing power parity this article employs hansen s 1995 covariate augmented dickey fuller cadf test to reexamine the issue of purchasing power parity ppp using post bretton woods exchange rate data for 20 industrialized countries instead of just using a single covariate as in the literature we implement the test by using bai and ng s 2002 method to choose suitable stationary covariates our empirical results show that the real exchange rates generally display long run mean reversion and support ppp as contrasted with those obtained in amara and papell 2006 that less rejections of unit root hypothesis are made with the same test the panel unit root test suggested by chang 2004 is also performed to justify our results

the dynamic efficiency of regulatory constitutions in this article we model regulation as a repeated game between a utility facing a random sequence of demands and a regulator tempted to underreward past investment rate of return regulation designed with a constitutional commitment to an adequate rate of return on capital prudently invested is able to support an efficient investment program as a subgame perfect nash equilibrium for a larger set of parameter values than rate of return regulation without such a commitment furthermore rate of return regulation is superior to price regulation according to the same criterion assuming that the regulator is unable to make state contingent transfer payments

regulating a monopolist with unknown costs we consider the problem of how to regulate a monopolistic firm whose costs are unknown to the regulator the regulator s objective is to maximize a linear social welfare function of the consumers surplus and the firm s profit in the optimal regulatory policy prices and subsidies are designed as functions of the firm s cost report so that expected social welfare is maximized subject to the constraints that the firm has nonnegative profit and has no incentive to misrepresent its costs we explicitly derive the optimal policy and analyze its properties in their classic papers dupuit 2 and hotelling 5 considered pricing policies for a bridge that had a fixed cost of construction and zero marginal cost they demonstrated that the pricing policy that maximizes consumer well being is to set price equal to marginal cost and to provide a subsidy to the supplier equal to the fixed cost so that a firm would be willing to provide the bridge this first best solution is based on a number of informational assumptions first the demand function is assumed to be known to both the regulator and to the firm while the assumption of complete information may be too strong the assumption that information about demand is as available to the regulator as it is to the firm does not seem unnatural a second informational assumption is that the regulator has complete information about the cost of the firm or at least has the same information about cost as does the firm this assumption is unlikely to be met in reality since the firm would be expected to have better information about costs than would the regulator as weitzman has stated an essential feature of the regulatory environment i am trying to describe is uncertainty about the exact specification of each firm s cost function in most cases even the managers and engineers most closely associated with production will be unable to precisely specify beforehand the cheapest way to generate various hypothetical output levels because they are yet removed from the production process the regulators are likely to be vaguer still about a firm s cost function 12 p 684 as this observation suggests it is natural to expect that a firm would have better information regarding its costs than would a regulator the purpose of this paper is to develop an optimal regulatory policy for the case in which the regulator does not know the costs of the firm one strategy that a regulator could use in the absence of full information about costs is to give the firm the title to the total social surplus and to delegate the pricing decision to the firm in pursuing its own interests which would then be to maximize the total social surplus the firm would adopt the same marginal cost pricing strategy that the regulator would have imposed if the regulator had

is more information always better party cues and candidate quality in u s judicial elections abstract we investigate the influence of electoral rules on voting behavior and the quality of judges using newly collected data on judicial elections and ratings from 39 u s states we find that in partisan elections where candidates party affiliations are listed on the ballot party drives voting behavior and candidate quality has little effect on outcomes in nonpartisan elections where party affiliation is not on the ballot party has a much smaller influence on voting behavior and candidate quality has a substantial effect on outcomes if the primary task of public officials is not to represent voters ideology and their decisions have little variability across parties then we need to seriously consider the potential cost of partisan competition to the extent that partisan voting behavior crowds out the influence of candidate quality on voting outcomes the desirability of the partisan election system should be carefully assessed

the overvaluation of purchasing power parity abstract recent panel studies of purchasing power parity have reported strong evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates however these studies fail to control for cross sectional dependence in the data this failure has dramatic consequences raising the significance level of tests with a nominal size of 5 percent to as much as 50 percent it is shown in this paper that controlling for cross sectional dependence no evidence against the random walk null can be found in panels of up to 64 real exchange rates this finding cannot be attributed to low power as there is ample power in panels of this size to reject the unit root null