heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning abstract in this paper we consider a linear stochastic univariate forward looking model with one lag under adaptive heterogeneous learning the system is populated by two different types of agents who learn through recursive least squares techniques the parameter values in their forecasting models the two groups are constrained to have different information sets one being always a subset of the other we analyze convergence of these two interacting learning processes under different specifications of the forecasting model and in one case we find that an heterogenous expectations equilibrium emerges

targeting inflation by constant interest rate forecasts this paper reviews the concept of constant interest rate inflation forecast cir targeting it stresses the time inconsistent nature of cir targeting and provides a new method for constructing cir forecasts consistently in the context of models with forward looking variables a dynamic new keynesian model with forward looking price setting is used as an illustration suggesting that the main reason for choosing a relatively long forecast targeting horizon lies in the monetary authorities objective to smooth interest rate movements as greater nominal and real stabilization is achieved at a relatively short inflation forecast targeting horizon

adjustment costs and indeterminacy in perfect foresight models abstract this paper suggests a method for resolving indeterminacy of equilibrium in perfect foresight models and applies it to several existing models quadratic adjustment costs are introduced into models with multiple equilibria and the limiting behavior of the resulting solutions is studied as the adjustment costs go to zero the method is shown to be useful in selecting among feasible equilibria in examples in which there is local indeterminacy

exchange market intervention under multiple solutions abstract this paper analyzes exchange market intervention in a small open economy in the analysis the solutions are refined by two alternative criteria under the minimal state solution a simple feedback rule can perfectly stabilize income fluctuation if and only if exogenous shocks are unanticipated and serially correlated however under a collective rational solution the simple rule can always perfectly stabilize income fluctuation regardless of the forms of exogenous shocks and their degrees of anticipation the latter result is surprising because this simple rule may be more effective than the rules derived in the previous literature

nominal income targeting in an open economy optimizing model abstract this paper presents simulation results regarding the performance of nominal income targeting a monetary policy rule that sets interest rates in response to deviations of nominal gdp growth from a target path the macroeconomic model is one in which agents solve dynamic optimization problems with rational expectations but in an environment with slow price adjustments in the present version consumption choices reflect habit formation and the economy is open to international flows of goods and securities when calibrated to quarterly us data the model s results suggest that nominal income targeting performs well in relation to inflation targeting and taylor rules

the real effects of liquidity during the financial crisis evidence from automobiles illiquidity in short term credit markets during the financial crisis might have severely curtailed the supply of nonbank consumer credit using a new data set linking every car sold in the united states to the credit supplier involved in each transaction we find that the collapse of the asset backed commercial paper market reduced the financing capacity of such nonbank lenders as captive leasing companies in the automobile industry as a result car sales in counties that traditionally depended on nonbank lenders declined sharply although other lenders increased their supply of credit the net aggregate effect of illiquidity on car sales is large and negative we conclude that the decline in auto sales during the financial crisis was caused in part by a credit supply shock driven by the illiquidity of the most important providers of consumer finance in the auto loan market these results also imply that interventions aimed at arresting illiquidity in short term credit markets might have helped contain the real effects of the crisis

ppp exchange rate rules macroeconomic in stability and learning in order to maintain competitiveness governments in developing economies seem to have pursued purchasing power parity ppp exchange rate rules by adjusting the nominal devaluation rate in response to real exchange rate deviations from an intermediate target this article shows that these rules are likely to induce macroeconomic instability as they generate sunspot driven fluctuations that are in fact learnable by agents in the expectational stability sense it finds that the existence of these learnable sunspots depends among others on open economy features including the degree of openness and the degree of exchange rate pass through to consumer s import prices

some issues concerning interest rate pegging price level determinacy and the real bills doctrine abstract in a recent paper canzoneri henderson and rogoff have shown that it is possible for the monetary authority to peg the nominal interest rate without creating price level indeterminacy in a simplified version of the 1975 sargent wallace model the present paper begins by reviewing that result which involves a limiting case of a money supply rule that depicts the authority as responding to current values of the interest rate then it shows that there exists an alternative rule that will peg the nominal rate without creating indeterminacy but that this rule induces a different pattern of price level fluctuations next the paper considers whether indeterminacy will prevail if the authority tries to effect a peg in a third way by simply standing ready to buy and sell securities at the desired rate finally the implications of the foregoing results are drawn for arguments concerning the real bills doctrine and some critical comments are directed at the recent attempted rehabilitation of that doctrine by sargent and wallace

multiple solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis abstract a sizeable fraction of recent research on monetary policy has been concerned with issues relating to analytical indeterminacies i e multiple solutions in rational expectations re models most of the literature features sophisticated re analysis conducted within dynamic models that reflect optimizing behavior by individual agents and incorporate taylor style policy rules a few papers have suggested that some of the particular indeterminacy arguments are misleading or irrelevant for the most part however there has been little dissent from the position that these indeterminacies present a genuine problem for monetary policy makers the purpose of the present paper by contrast is to argue that conclusions based on multiple solution indeterminacy findings are of dubious merit rather generally

financial development and intersectoral allocation a new approach this paper uses a new methodology based on industry comovement to examine the role of financial market development in intersectoral allocation based on the assumption that there exist common global shocks to growth opportunities we hypothesize that country pairs should have correlated patterns of sectoral growth if they are able to respond to these shocks consistent with financial markets promoting responsiveness to shocks countries have more highly correlated growth rates across sectors when both countries have well developed financial markets this effect is stronger between country pairs at similar levels of economic development which are more likely to experience similar growth shocks copyright 2004 by the american finance association

financial development and financing constraints international evidence from the structural investment model this article provides evidence that financial development impacts growth by reducing financing constraints that would otherwise distort efficient allocation of investment the financing constraints are inferred from the investment euler equation by assuming that the firm s stochastic discount factor is a function of the firm s financial position specifically the stock of liquid assets the magnitude of the changes in the cost of capital is twice as large in a country with a low level of financial development as in a country with an average level of financial development the size effect business cycles and legal environment effects are also considered copyright 2003 oxford university press

does corporate transparency contribute to efficient resource allocation this paper examines whether a country s corporate transparency environment which includes the quality of accounting information contributes to efficient resource allocation based on a cross country study of 37 manufacturing industries in 37 countries we provide three pieces of related evidence first we find the contemporaneous correlations in industry growth rates across country pairs are higher when there is a greater level of corporate transparency in the country pairs after controlling for country level economic and financial development second we find the influence of transparency on these correlations is stronger when country pairs are at similar levels of economic development gdp finally when we control for the level of transparency explained by a country s institutions in place we find that residual transparency unexplained by country level factors is associated with industry specific growth rates taken together the results are consistent with corporate transparency facilitating the allocation of resources across industry sectors

theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates this paper explores several issues concerning a possible zero lower bound zlb including its theoretical rationale the magnitude of effects of low sustained inflation on real interest rates the validity of analyzing monetary policy in models with no monetary variables and the dynamic stabilizing properties of taylor rules in a zlb context the most important argument however is that if the short nominal rate is immobilized at zero there nevertheless exists a route for monetary stabilization policy to be effective via the foreign exchange market its quantitative importance is examined in a calibrated optimizing open economy model

could a monetary base rule have prevented the great depression abstract this paper continues an ongoing investigation of the properties of a policy rule that specifies settings of the monetary base that are designed to keep nominal gnp growing smoothly at a noninflationary rate counterfactual historical simulations for 1923 1941 are conducted with the rule and a small model of nominal gnp determination estimated with u s quarterly data with residuals fed in as estimates of the behavioral shocks that occurred the simulation results indicate that nominal gnp would have been kept reasonably close to a steady three percent path over 1923 1941 if the rule had been in effect

stable near rational sunspot equilibria abstract we introduce a new class of solutions to nonlinear forward looking models called near rational sunspot equilibria nrse nrse are natural nonlinear extensions of the usual sunspot equilibria associated with the linearized version of the economy and are near rational in that agents use the optimal linear forecasting model when forming expectations generic results for existence and stability under learning are established nrse in indeterminate nonlinear models are found to be stable under learning provided that the corresponding linearized model s minimal state variable solution is e stable nrse are readily computable and our results make it possible to use the standard linear tools to search for stable nrse we illustrate our results using a canonical nonlinear new keynesian model

financial markets financial dependence and the allocation of capital abstract we explore one specific channel through which finance promotes growth the allocation of capital using international industrial data we find that countries with developed financial markets invest more in growing industries and pull out more funds of declining ones most interestingly this pattern is more eminent for those industries more dependent on external financing various robustness checks show that the results are not driven by reverse causality omitted variables specific countries or industries

comment on endogenous objectives and the evaluation of targeting rules for monetary policy 1 four mccallum principles itis bothanprivilege andapleasureformetoparticipateinthisconferenceinhonorofbennettt mccallum henceforthbtm thus beforeproceedingtomakespeci c comments regarding carl walsh s elegant paper on endogenous objectivesand targeting rules i would like to begin by providing some context in light ofbtm snumerouscontributionstotheanalysisofmonetarypolicy forthispurpose itishelpfultohighlightfourbasicprinciplesofeffectivemonetarypolicythatbtmhas consistently emphasized over the past several decades given the logicalcoherencyandintuitiveappealofhisworkonthissubject itisonlynaturaltorefertothesefourpointsasthe mccallumprinciples the rstmccallumprincipleisthatmonetarypolicymatters thatis theconductof monetary policy can have important consequences for social welfare btmanalyzedthetheoreticalandempiricalunderpinningsofthisprincipleinaseriesof

exchange market intervention under alternative forms of exogenous disturbances abstract this paper analyzes exchange market intervention in a stochastic model of a small open economy the distinction is made between disturbances which are unanticipated and anticipated on the one hand and those that are perceived as being transitory or permanent on the other it is shown how the appropriate form of exchange market intervention is sensitive to these aspects of the disturbances of particular interest is the case of an unanticipated permanent disturbance when output may be stabilized perfectly about its frictionless level by the use of a very simple class of intervention rules the optimal rules in other cases are also discussed

comparative studies of national incomes and prices income comparisons between persons or groups of persons in different countries are a special field of inquiry mainly because there are different currency units for the most part the other theoretical and empirical problems encountered in international income comparisons are similar to those of within nation comparisons between different persons at the same time or different groups of persons either interspatially or what is more common intertemporally e g constant price series of national income the qualifications mainly and for the most part are included because some writers hold that international comparisons are complicated or even invalidated by differences in consumption patterns sometimes differences in tastes are held to underlie these variations in consumption patterns variations that are often much larger between countries than those found between regions within a country or between different periods in the same country this essay focuses in its methodological aspects on these special problems the basic problems that are common to international and within nation comparisons are left to the standard literature on national accounts 2 we turn now to the currency unit problems and reserve the question of tastes for a later section

comparative productivity the ussr eastern europe and the west this paper compiles comparative measures of output per worker in 1975 in four socialist and seven western market economy wme countries and explores sources of observed differences between the two groups of countries in that regard such differences seem explicable only partially by reference to differences in per worker capital stock and farm land a residual disparity of 25 to 34 percent in favor of wme countries appears to testify to superior efficiency in the latter copyright 1987 by american economic association

tax base and crowding in effects of balanced budget fiscal policy a dynamic general equilibrium business cycle model is constructed with staggered price adjustment monopolistic wage setting and distortionary taxation the government purchases goods runs an unemployment benefit system and balances its budget through a proportional tax on labour income a temporary tax financed increase in government expenditures can lower the tax rate through a demand induced widening of the tax base it is shown analytically that this allows private consumption to rise under realistic conditions despite the negative wealth effect of increased fiscal spending

testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy reply this paper considers a prototypical new keynesian model in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is passive the likelihood based estimation of dynamic equilibrium models is extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot fluctuations we construct posterior weights for the determinacy and indeterminacy region of the parameter space and estimates for the propagation of fundamental and sunspot shocks according to the estimated model u s monetary policy post 1982 is consistent with determinacy whereas the pre volcker policy is not we find that before 1979 indeterminacy substantially altered the propagation of shocks

on real and sticky price theories of the business cycle after presenting some facts about the growth of government in western industrialized countries possible causes of this development are analyzed from a public choice perspective next some empirically tested theories which seek to explain this growth are discussed finally possible consequences for efficiency and individual liberty are examined it is shown that both the number and size of interest groups age of democracy as stated by mancur olson 1982 and the increasing share of government expenditure in gdp seem to exert a negative influence on the growth rate of gdp copyright 1986 by ohio state university press

nominal price rigidity money supply endogeneity and business cycles abstract this paper investigates the ability of nominal price rigidity to explain the co movement of inflation with the cyclical component of output observed in the post war u s data a dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed with the introduction of monopolistic competition and nominal price rigidity in a standard real business cycle model allowing for an endogenous money supply rule it is then demonstrated that sticky price models can explain the observed associations between movements in inflation and output much better than flexible price models this result depends little on whether money supply is assumed to be endogenous or not

is corruption grease grit or a gamble corruption increases variance of productivity across countries the effect of corruption on economic growth has attracted interest in empirical development economics the conventional view of corruption as impediment for growth has been challenged by the grease on the wheels hypothesis we take a new perspective on the issue and suggest corruption as macro risk referred to as a gamble hypothesis using cross country data and two alternative indicators of corruption we find corruption to be a significant driver of heteroscedasticity in total productivity this supports the new gamble hypothesis we also note some misleading interpretations in the previously published frontier applications to avoid these shortcomings we apply a flexible semi nonparametric estimator

on the consistency of aggregate production frontiers abstract this paper investigates the consistency of efficiency frontier methods applied at the aggregate level we estimate eight aggregate production frontiers on a sample of 93 countries depending on three methodological choices for the specification of the frontier the choice of the approach technique stochastic frontier approach or data envelopment analysis the specification of human capital as an input and the nature of returns to scale we observe some differences on the descriptive statistics of the distributions of the efficiency scores but also a very high significant and positive correlation between scores rankings regardless of the methodological choices made our results tend then to suggest the consistency of the efficiency techniques at the aggregate level

global growth opportunities and market integration we propose an exogenous measure of a country s growth opportunities by interacting the country s local industry mix with global price to earnings pe ratios we find that these exogenous growth opportunities predict future changes in real gdp and investment in a large panel of countries this relation is strongest in countries that have liberalized their capital accounts equity markets and banking systems we also find that financial development external finance dependence and investor protection measures are much less important in aligning growth opportunities with growth than is capital market openness finally we formulate new tests of market integration and segmentation by linking local and global pe ratios to relative economic growth in a perfectly integrated world economy capital should be invested where it

learning monetary policy and asset prices this working paper should not be reported as representing the view s of the imf the views expressed in this working paper are those of the author s and do not necessarily represent those of the imf or imf policy working papers describe research in progress by the author s and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

the transition to a market economy pitfalls of partial reform we present a theory of a partial economic reform of a planned economy similar to the one that took place in russia since 1988 and in china earlier in such a reform some markets are liberalized in the sense that producers can sell output to whomever they want including private firms at free prices but at the same time must sell to state firms at state prices we show that such a reform can result in a substantial diversion of subsidized inputs away from state firms and toward private firms even when state firms value these inputs more the result may be a reduction of total output the simple analysis sheds light on many consequences of the soviet reform such as breakdown of coordination of production increased state policing of delivery quotas prohibitions of trading cooperatives and opposition to privatization the model also explains why partial reform failed in russia but worked in china

monetarist principles and the money stock growth rule given the influence of milton friedman it is hard to keep from identifying monetarisms with the advocacy of a policy rule that would require the money stock to grow at a constant rate and prohibit cyclical adjustments in government spending or in tax schedules this identification is somewhat inaccurate since karl brunner and allan meltzer the other two leading proponents of monetarism have not always been advocates of a constant money growth rate it may nevertheless he useful to relate one s thoughts about monetarism to friedman s rule as will be done in this paper but the question that immediately arises is what more fundamental beliefs about the economy give rise to the idea that such a rule would be socially desirable at this more basic level there may he more agreement among monetarists than about the rule itself in any event it appears that there are two basic monetarist propositions that are of crucial importance as follows i cyclical and secular movements in nominal income are primarily attributable to movements in the stock of money relative to capacity output ii there is no permanent tradeoff between unemployment and inflation or any other characteristic of the path of the price level that is the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis is valid this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

does the lucas critique apply during hyperinflation empirical evidence from four hyperinflationary episodes farmer review of economic studies 58 321 32 1991 suggests that in a model in which there are multiple rational expectations equilibria agents may find it useful to coordinate their expectations in a unique rational expectations equilibrium which is supported by a self fulfilling forecast rule having the property of being immune to the lucas critique in this paper farmer s hypothesis is tested using data from hyperinflationary episodes it is believed that those episodes are suitable for testing this hypothesis because an agent who lives in a hyperinflationary environment usually faces frequent changes in policy regime the agent may thus choose a selffulfilling forecast rule which is immune to the lucas critique as a way of hedging against unanticipated policy regime switches the empirical results show mixed evidence on farmer s hypothesis during the hyperinflationary episodes studied

adjustment costs learning and indeterminacy abstract i compare the adjustment cost and learning approaches to resolving indeterminacy of perfect foresight equilibrium in a continuous time model with local indeterminacy rapid learning tends to select different perfect foresight equilibria of the original model than does the inclusion of vanishing adjustment costs this difference has implications for the dynamic response of the economy to unanticipated shocks

should monetary policy respond strongly to output gaps much recent monetary policy analysis has featured stochastic simulations with small structural macroeconomic models that include a spending vs saving is sector a price adjustment sector and an interest rate policy rule the first two are frequently specified so as to reflect optimizing behavior policy may or may not be specified as optimizing depending on the study s objectives some leading issues concern modifications to simple quantitative optimizing models that are needed to generate realistic degrees of persistence in inflation and output gap variables a major policy issue is whether it is desirable for monetary policy to respond strongly to the output gap the paper argues that the latter is unobservable and considers the implications of using a trend type measure while the true concept is of a type more in keeping with basic theory in such circumstances highly undesirable consequences are likely to ensue if policy responds strongly to the measured gap this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the historical slave trade and firm access to finance in africa access to finance helps explain the link between the historical african slave trade and current gross domestic product we first present mistrust weakened institutions and ethnic fractionalization as plausible historical channels linking the slave trade to modern finance and development we then show i the slave trade is consistently linked to reduced access to the formal and trade credit needed by modern firms ii this shortage particularly reduces capital investment in smaller firms not in business groups and iii the slave trade cannot explain most other business obstacles suggesting that long term societal shocks are exceptionally important for finance received december 16 2014 editorial decision june 29 2017 by editor philip strahan

on non uniqueness in rational expectations models an attempt at perspective abstract many macroeconomic models involving rational expectations give rise to an infinity of solution paths even when the models are linear in all variables some writers have suggested that this non uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis one purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but instead is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations it is also argued that there typically exists in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models a single solution that excludes bubble or bootstrap effects one that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur a systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed in addition this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities including ones developed by fischer black and john b taylor

price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations abstract this paper reconsiders a result obtained by sargent and wallace namely that price level indeterminacy obtains in their model if the monetary authorities adopt a feedback rule for the interest rate rather than the money stock it is shown that the indeterminacy vanishes if the interest rate rule is chosen so as to have a desired effect on the expected quantity of money demanded this holds even if considerable weight is given in the choice of a rule to the aim of smoothing interest rate fluctuations

does the size of islamic banking matter for industry growth international evidence islamic banking which has witnessed unprecedented growth in the last quarter of the century is hypothesized to be able to contribute to the development of the financial sector and thus to economic

is corruption an efficient grease this paper tests whether corruption may be an efficient grease in the wheels of an otherwise deficient institutional framework it analyzes the interaction between aggregate efficiency corruption and other dimensions of governance for a panel of 69 countries both developed and developing using two measures of corruption and two other aspects of governance we observe that corruption is less detrimental to efficiency in countries where institutions are less effective it may even be positively associated with efficiency in countries where institutions are extremely ineffective we thus find evidence for the grease the wheels hypothesis in its weak and strong forms

financial dependence and growth revisited we revisit an earlier highly influential paper on financial dependence and growth by rajan and zingales 1998 we re examine their assumptions and the robustness of their results to alternative theories and interpretations we first show that they may be implicitly testing whether financial intermediaries allow firms to better respond to global shocks to growth opportunities rather than the extent that financial intermediaries allow firms to grow in industries with an inherent technological financial dependence we propose a more direct measure of growth opportunities if u s capital markets are perfect then actual growth in the u s is a good proxy for global growth opportunities we test this directly by including u s industry growth in rajan and zingales s original specification and find that our direct growth measure outperforms their financial dependence measure and is less vulnerable to controlling for outliers and level of development this still suggests an important role for finance in the allocation of resources but shifts the emphasis from financial dependence to global growth opportunities jel f3 g1 o4

comparative statics and perfect foresight in infinite horizon economies does a pure exchange economy with an infinite time horizon have determinate perfect foresight equilibria when there is a finite number of infinitely lived agents equilibria are generically determinate this is not true with overlapping generations of finitely lived agents we ask whether the initial conditions together with the requirement of convergence to a steady state locally determine an equilibrium price path in this framework there are many economies with isolated equilibria many with continua of equilibria and many with no equilibria at all with two or more goods in every period not only can the price level be indeterminate but relative prices as well furthermore such indeterminacy can occur whether or not there is fiat money and whether or not the equilibria are pareto efficient this paper considers whether infinite horizon economies have determinate perfect foresight equilibria this question is of crucial importance if instead equilibria are locally indeterminate not only are we unable to make comparative static predictions but the agents in the model are unable to determine the consequences of unanticipated shocks the idea underlying perfect foresight is that agents expectations should be the actual future sequence predicted by the model if the model does not make determinate predictions the concept of perfect foresight is meaningless we consider two extreme cases the first with a finite number of infinitely lived consumers and the second with an infinite number of finitely lived consumers an overlapping generations model both are models of stationary pure exchange economies no production including the storage of goods between periods can occur these models are unrealistic but are the easiest to study extensions of the results of this paper to models with production infinitely lived assets and mixtures of the two types of consumers are presented by muller and woodford 29 when there is a finite number of infinitely lived consumers we argue that equilibria are generically determinate this is because the effective number of equations determining equilibria is not infinite but equal to the number of agents minus one and must determine the marginal utility of income for all but one agent generically near an equilibrium these equations are independent and exactly determine the unknowns when there are infinitely many overlapping generations this reasoning breaks down an infinite number of equations is not necessarily sufficient to determine

on consequences and criticisms of monetary targeting the purpose of this paper is to review and evaluate the most important existing criticisms of policy strategies that feature adherence to money stock targets four main categories of criticism and counterargumerits are analyzed the first of these involves the claim that accurate money stock control is infeasible while the second contends that such control can only be obtained along with extreme volatility of interest rates the third emphasizes difficulties resulting from technical change and deregulation and the fourth concerns strategic issues of rules vs discretion activist vs non activist policy and the logical function of intermediate targets this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

financial development and economic growth abstract this paper examines the empirical relationship between long run growth and financial development proxied by the ratio between bank credit to the private sector and gdp we find that this proxy is positively correlated with growth in a large cross country sample but its impact changes across countries and is negative in a panel data for latin america we argue that the latter findings is the result of financial liberalization in a poor regulatory environment our findings also show that the main channel of transmission from financial development to growth is the efficiency rather than the volume of investment

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

financial development and corporate growth in the eu single market the establishment of the eu 15 single market in 1993 brought about a high degree of similarity in firms growth opportunities across countries while substantial diversity existed in the development of national financial markets we compare within industry growth rates of similar single market firms facing financial systems of different depth and institutional quality as of 1993 moving from the least to the most developed financial market within the eu 15 boosts firms annual value added growth by about three percentage points our results also suggest that the growth gap due to initially underdeveloped financial systems was closed by 2003

a simple nonnegative process for equilibrium models abstract this paper presents a general specification for dynamic equilibrium models where nonnegative variables follow the autoregressive gamma process in jasiak and gourieroux 2006 the model solution implies linear dynamics for endogenous variables and provides conditional and unconditional moments in closed form finding the solution is computationally inexpensive requiring only to solve linear and quadratic equations the specification can be applied to a wide variety of models in finance and economics two applications are presented first a time varying volatility premium in a long run risks asset pricing model second time varying volatility in policy shocks in a simple new keynesian model accuracy in these models solutions is high and not significantly affected by time varying volatility

spending reversals and fiscal multipliers under an interest rate peg this paper examines whether fiscal stimuli are more effective when the monetary policy is less responsive to inflation first we provide empirical evidence suggesting that in the period of u s passive monetary policy a positive government spending shock was followed over time by a spending cut second our theoretical analysis reveals that the pegged nominal interest rate is not a sufficient condition to generate a large fiscal multiplier an increase in government spending could increase the long run real interest rate if it is associated with a government spending reversal and a less responsive monetary policy consequently the response of private consumption can be negative and the government spending multiplier is not necessarily greater than 1

trend inflation sticky prices and expectational stability abstract micro evidence indicates that each period a fraction of prices is kept unchanged under a positive trend inflation rate in a sticky price model based on this evidence recent research shows that high trend inflation is a serious cause for indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibrium under the taylor rule this paper examines implications of trend inflation for expectational stability of the equilibrium an empirically plausible calibration of the model demonstrates that a fundamental rational expectations equilibrium is likely to be expectationally stable even in cases of indeterminacy induced by high trend inflation

productivity growth transparency and monetary policy abstract this study examines whether central bank transparency about views of future productivity growth contributes to stabilizing macroeconomic fluctuations in a standard new keynesian model the central bank and private agents make their subjective estimates on the persistence of productivity growth in this situation if private agents believe that the central bank s projections include forecast errors on future productivity growth these beliefs can destabilize private agents own expectations because the central bank s forecast errors may lead to policy mistakes in the future consequently central bank transparency does not necessarily stabilize the variations of the output gap and inflation rate the central bank should respond strongly to the inflation rate if the impact of transparency is uncertain

new evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the euro area implications for macro modeling this paper evaluates new evidence on price setting practices and inflation persistence in the euro area with respect to its implications for macro modeling it argues that several of the most commonly used assumptions in micro founded macro models are seriously challenged by the new findings jel e31 e52

on the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics abstract in this article we investigate the possibility of sunspot equilibria to emerge from a process of learning and adaptation on agents beliefs we consider both finite state markov sunspots and sunspots in autoregressive form and derive conditions for the existence of an heterogeneous equilibrium where only a fraction of agents condition their forecasts on the sunspot we then show that when the fraction of agents conditioning their forecasts on a sunspot changes over time under evolutionary dynamics these restrictions need to evolve endogenously with population shares we argue that such requirement questions the possibility of sunspot equilibria to emerge through a process of evolution and adaptation on agents beliefs in order for a sunspot equilibrium to emerge all agents must simultaneously coordinate on the same sunspot variable at the same time

seasonal cycles business cycles and monetary policy abstract this paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model that is consistent with both seasonal and business cycle facts in the u s economy the model features consumption durability and a transaction technology both crucial in accounting for seasonal patterns of nominal variables a calibrated version of the model is used to quantitatively evaluate welfare consequences of three alternative monetary policy rules 1 the fed s historical policy that smooths nominal interest rates at the seasonal frequency but not at the business cycle frequency 2 a constant money growth rule and 3 a constant interest rate rule we find that the historical policy is associated with higher welfare than both alternatives

fundamentalists vs chartists learning and predictor choice dynamics abstract in a simple forward looking univariate model of price determination we investigate the evolution of expectations dynamics in the presence of two types of agents fundamentalists and chartists in particular we combine evolutionary selection among heterogeneous classes of models through predictor choice dynamics based on a logit model with adaptive learning in the form of parameters updating within each class of rules we find that for different parameterizations it can happen that fundamentalists drive chartists completely out of the market or vice versa and also that heterogeneous equilibria in which fundamentalists and chartists coexist are possible interestingly though only equilibria in which fundamentalists outperform chartists turn out to be adaptively learnable by agents

are hyperinflation paths learnable abstract earlier studies of the seigniorage inflation model have found that the high inflation steady state is not stable under learning we reconsider this issue and analyze the full set of solutions for the linearized model our main focus is on stationary hyperinflationary paths near the high inflation steady state these paths are shown to be stable under least squares learning if agents can utilize contemporaneous data in an economy with a mixture of agents some of whom only have access to lagged data stable hyperinflationary paths emerge only if the proportion of agents with access to contemporaneous data is sufficiently high

imperfect credibility and inflation persistence in this paper we formulate a dynamic general equilibrium model with staggered nominal contracts in which households and rms use optimal ltering to disentangle persistent and transitory shifts in the monetary policy rule the calibrated model accounts quite well for the dynamics of output and insation during the volcker disinsation and implies a sacri ce ratio very close to the estimated value our approach indicates that insation persistence and substantial costs of disinsation can be generated in an optimizing agent framework without relaxing the assumption of rational expectations or relying on arbitrary modi cations to the aggregate supply relation jel classi cation e31 e32 e52

an optimizing is lm specification for monetary policy and business cycle analysis we ask whether relations of the is lm type can sensibly be used for the aggregate demand portion of a dynamic optimizing general equilibrium model intended for analysis of issues regarding monetary policy and cyclical fluctuations the main result is that only one change the addition of a term regarding expected future income is needed to make the is function match a fully optimizing model whereas no changes are needed for the lm function this modification leads to a dynamic forward looking model of aggregate demand that is tractable and usable with a wide variety of aggregate supply specifications theoretical applications concerning price level determinacy and gradual price adjustment are included

a test for speculative bubbles in the sterling dollar exchange rate 1981 84 the u s dollar price of the u k pound sterling is tested for a speculative bubble defined as a period with a nonzero median in excessreturns a nonparametric procedure is developed which controls for data mining over the period of flexible exchange rates and finds a negative bubble in the excess return to holding sterling rather than dollar assets during the period 1981 84 possible interpretations arebootstrap equilibria rational bubbles nonsym metric fundamentals and nonrational expectations copyright 1986 by american economic association

adaptive behavior and economic theory the relationship between psychological and economic views of behavior once a subject of heavy dispute is now understood in a very similar way by practitioners of both these disciplines and of our sister social sciences in general terms we view or model an individual as a collection of decision rules rules that dictate the action to be taken in given situations and a set of preferences used to evaluate the outcomes arising from particular situation action combinations these decision rules are continuously under review and revision new decision rules are tried and tested against experience and rules that produce desirable outcomes supplant those that do not i use the term adaptive to refer to this trial anderror process through which our modes of behavior are determined if one is interested in modeling particular decisions in any very explicit way it is obviously necessary to think about rather narrow aspects of an individual s entire set of decision rules his or her personality experimental psychology has traditionally focused on the adaptive process by which decision rules are replaced by others in this tradition the influence of the subject s or as an economist says the agent s preferences this essay uses a series of examples to illustrate the use of rationality and adaptation in economic theory it is argued that these hypotheses are complementary and that stability theories based on adaptive behavior may help to narrow the class of empirically interesting equilibria in certain economic models an experiment is proposed to test this idea

financial innovation the bright and the dark sides based on data from 32 countries over the period 1996 2010 this paper is the first to assess the relationship between financial innovation on the one hand and bank growth and fragility as well as economic growth on the other hand we find that different measures of financial innovation capturing both a broad concept and specific innovations are associated with faster bank growth but also higher bank fragility and worse bank performance during the recent crisis these effects are stronger in countries with larger securities markets and more restrictive regulatory frameworks in spite of these seemingly ambiguous findings our evidence points to a positive net effect of financial innovation on economic growth financial innovation is associated with higher growth in countries and industries with better growth opportunities

has monetary policy become more effective we investigate the implications of changes in the structure of the u s economy for monetary policy effectiveness estimating a vector autoregression over the pre and post 1980 periods we provide evidence of a reduced effect of monetary policy shocks in the latter period we estimate a structural model that replicates well the economy s response in both periods and perform counterfactual experiments to determine the source of the change in the monetary transmission mechanism and in the economy s volatility we find that by responding more strongly to inflation expectations monetary policy has stabilized the economy more effectively in the post 1980 period

uncovered interest parity monetary policy and time varying risk premia abstract in a recent paper mccallum argued that monetary policy behavior can be responsible for the apparent empirical failure of uncovered interest parity uip the present paper investigates whether optimizing policy behavior can account for the observed regime dependence of uip evidence the main result is that the tradeoff between interest rate and exchange rate stability is a potential candidate for the explanation of the apparent failure of uip and that the consideration of policy reactions can explain why deviations from uip differ systematically by the exchange rate regime

specification of policy rules and performance measures in multicountry simulation studies abstract much recent analysis of international monetary and fiscal policy issues has been conducted by stochastic simulations with multicountry econometric models in these studies it has become standard practice to consider alternative policy rules of a form that calls for departures of a policy instrument from some baseline reference path that are proportional to deviations of a specified target variable from its own baseline path the present paper argues that this standard rule form is seriously defective for such issues because th eimplied rules often fail to be operational and have associated performance measures that can be misleading in important cases jel c50 f30

technical efficiency and productivity analysis in indonesian provincial economies this article estimates inefficiency and total factor productivity tfp across indonesian provinces from 1993 to 2000 indonesia is a large emerging market economy but provinces within the country due to the island structure of the country are more distinct from one another compared to other countries we use a stochastic frontier methodology to estimate inefficiency and tfp we find that tfp fell by an average rate of 7 5 across provinces due to the decrease in technical efficiency in fact the majority of output growth within indonesia is explained by the accumulation of inputs in this sense economic growth within indonesia does not appear to be sustainable without reversing these trends

equilibrium beliefs in linear rational expectations models abstract non unique equilibria are widely found in dynamic models with money increasing returns and imperfect competition this paper provides a convenient method for representing the entire set of equilibria in a large class of models similar to those studied by blanchard and kahn the method utilizes restrictions imposed on comovements implied by the structures of such models it is an aid in theoretical analysis and can be instrumental in the development of econometric tests of indeterminacy and sunspots important restrictions on admissible non fundamental uncertainty and on model forecasts are also highlighted

fiscal policy in the new neoclassical synthesis we analytically derive the cyclical effects of fiscal policy shocks in a new neoclassical synthesis model price stickiness has the consequence that a rise in government demand affects labor demand while at the same time the usual wealth effect boosts labor supply the strength of the demand effect depends on the response of the real interest rate governed by the monetary policy regime when the central bank controls money growth fiscal expansions are deflationary and might even be contractionary whereas output wages and inflation can increase when the rise in the real interest rate is dampened by an interest rate rule however price stickiness alone is not sufficient to explain a rise in consumption as predicted by keynesian theory

household wealth inequality entrepreneurs financial constraints and the great recession evidence from the kauffman firm survey we empirically test if household wealth inequality affects borrowing constraints of young entrepreneurs we construct a measure of wealth inequality at the us county level based on the distribution of financial rents in 2004 we find that in more unequal areas entrepreneurs are less likely to apply for a loan fearing that their applications will be turned down and they use more of their own funds to finance their ventures in more unequal areas the number of bank establishments per capita is lower this effect being stronger during the 2007 2008 financial crisis

monetarist rules in the light of recent experience recent experience does not include a monetarist experiment as some have argued but may slightly reinforce preexisting reasons for doubting that the best way of formulating monetarist policy prescriptions is in the form of a constant growth rule for the money stock a more desirable rule would pertain to the monetary base which is much more directly under fed control while a constant base growth rule might provide good macroeconomic performance better results should be obtainable from a rule that at regular intervals adjusts the base growth rate upward or downward depending on whether nominal gnp is below or above a target path that specifies constant non inflationary growth for that variable this type of rule is activist to an extent but is non discretionary the implied absence of policy making flexibility is desirable for reasons explained in the literature on dynamic inconsistency this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

interest rate rules vs money growth rules a welfare comparison in a cash in advance economy abstract this paper considers the welfare consequences of two particularly simple rules for monetary policy an interest rate peg and a money growth peg the model economy consists of a real side that is the standard real business cycle model and a monetary side that amounts to imposing cash in advance constraints on certain market transactions the paper also considers the effect of assuming a rigidity in the typical household s cash savings choice the competitive equilibrium of the economy is not pareto efficient partly because of two distortions a distortion on the capital accumulation decision and a distortion on portfolio choice that arises from the assumed rigidity the principal result of the paper is that the interest rate rule but not the money growth rule entirely eliminates these two distortions and is thus the benevolent central banker s policy choice

phillips curve instability and optimal monetary policy this paper assesses the implications for optimal discretionary monetary policy if the slope of the phillips curve changes the paper first derives a phillips curve from the optimal pricing decision of a monopolistic firm that faces a changing cost of price adjustment the second aspect of the paper constructs a utility based welfare criterion a novel feature of this criterion is that is has a relative weight on output gap deviations that changes synchronously with changes in the cost of price adjustment the systematic component of the targeting rule that implements the optimal discretionary policy under the utility based criteria is constant in contrast the systematic component of the targeting rule under an ad hoc criteria changes along with changes in the slope of the phillips curve

local financial development and firm performance evidence from morocco abstract combining data from the moroccan census of manufacturing enterprises with information from a commune survey we test whether firm expansion is affected by local financial development our findings are consistent with this hypothesis local bank availability is robustly associated with faster growth for small and medium size firms in sectors with growth opportunities with a lower likelihood of firm exit and a higher likelihood of investment regarding the channel the evidence suggests that over the study period access to credit was used by pre existing moroccan firms to mobilize investment funds with some evidence that they were partly used towards reducing labor costs

institutions freedom and technical efficiency the impact of institutions on economic performance is currently the subject of much research in this study we use panel data to estimate a stochastic production frontier and the sources of inefficiency for a broad set of countries a maximum likelihood procedure is used to estimate the parameters for the stochastic production frontier and the determinants of inefficiency simultaneously our results show that institutions that promote greater economic freedom in turn promote efficiency

the relative efficiencies of market and planned economies are planned economies systematically more or less productive than market economies this question provoked heated intellectual debate since the time of hayek 11 keynes 16 lange 19 lange and taylor 20 and lerner 22 the collapse of the communist systems of east europe since 1989 closed the debate planned economies were without doubt less efficient in utilizing economic resources than market economies but how much less efficient this question is of obvious scientific interest but it has not been answered some work addressing the broad question of comparative efficiency has been done by bergson 4 5 6 marer 25 26 moroney 28 and others all indicate comparatively lower efficiency in planned economies but none addresses the question by how much our contribution here is to answer this question using a novel methodology we estimate aggregate frontier production functions for two groups of countries 7 centrally planned economies in east europe and 17 predominantly market economies in west europe estimating frontier production functions enables two types of comparisons that have not

the phillips curve the persistence of inflation and the lucas critique evidence from exchange rate regimes comment we present evidence from the united states and the united kingdom that the persistence of price inflation is significantly higher under managed exchange rate regimes than under gold based fixed exchange rate regimes these differences are also reflected in expectations augmented phillips curves we use a two country macro model with forward looking price setters to demonstrate that higher monetary accommodation of inflation and exchange rate accommodation of inflation differentials increase inflation persistence the evidence does not contradict this hypothesis it supports the hypothesis of forward looking price setters and highlights the empirical significance of the lucas critique jel e31 e42 f33

monetary policy expectations and commitment commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies a number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approximate commitment policy we assess these rules in terms of whether they lead to a rational expectations equilibrium that is both locally determinate and stable under adaptive learning by private agents a reaction function that appropriately depends explicitly on private sector expectations performs particularly well on both counts

the ussr before the fall how poor and why this essay appraises the scholarly findings on the level of consumption and output in the ussr compared with that in the west such aggregative calculations are onerous for any country and not very surprisingly have encountered particular difficulty where such a strange society as soviet communism has been in question predictably the results have been controversial but properly viewed they still provide illuminating perspective on the extraordinary events that have lately transpired in the ussr

backward and forward solutions for economies with rational expectations in models where anticipations of future endogenous variables influence current behavior there exists an infinity of solutions under the assumption of rational expectations this problem has been dealt with in the study of macro economic models by the implicit or explicit use of one of three additional requirements optimality consistency with alleged economic behavior or conformity of the endogenous variables to an imposed stationarity condition these requirements have coincided in existing models leading to the choice of a unique solution a forward solution the purpose of this paper is to review the problem characterize the solutions and examine whether these requirements are acceptable section i presents a simple model and derives the set of solutions the model makes no claim to generality but has the major advantage that the issues are easily understood in this simple case section ii discusses the requirement of consistency with economic behavior section iii discusses the requirement of stationarity and section iv provides some conclusions