behavioral causes of the bullwhip effect and the observed value of inventory information the tendency of orders to increase in variability as one moves up a supply chain is commonly known as the bullwhip effect we study this phenomenon from a behavioral perspective in the context of a simple serial supply chain subject to information lags and stochastic demand we conduct two experiments on two different sets of participants in the first we find the bullwhip effect still exists when normal operational causes e g batching price fluctuations demand estimation etc are removed the persistence of the bullwhip effect is explained to some extent by evidence that decision makers consistently underweight the supply line when making order decisions in the second experiment we find that the bullwhip and the underlying tendency of underweighting remains when information on inventory levels is shared however we observe that inventory information helps somewhat to alleviate the bullwhip effect by helping upstream chain members better anticipate and prepare for fluctuations in inventory needs downstream these experimental results support the theoretically suggested notion that upstream chain members stand to gain the most from information sharing initiatives

two interval inventory allocation policies in a one warehouse n identical retailer distribution system for a system of n identical retailers we construct a model for determining warehouse inventory allocation policies which minimize system lost sales per retailer between system replenishments an allocation policy is specified by a the number of withdrawals from warehouse stock b the intervals between successive withdrawals c the quantity of stock to be withdrawn from the warehouse in each interval and d the division of withdrawn stock among the retailers we show that in the case of two withdrawals available stock in each interval should be divided to balance retailer inventories we also develop an infinite retailer model and use it to determine two interval allocation heuristics for n retailer systems simulation tests suggest that the infinite retailer heuristic policies are near optimal for as few as two retailers simulation tests indicate that the risk pooling benefits of allocation policies with two well chosen intervals are comparable to those of base stock policies with four equal intervals

bullwhip and batching an exploration the rounding of orders to achieve a batch size is recognised as a source of the bullwhip problem within supply chains while it is often advocated that batch sizes should be reduced as much as possible there has been limited investigation into the impact of batching on bullwhip here we consider scenarios where orders are placed only in multiples of a fixed batch size for both deterministic and stochastic demand rates we derive a closed form expression for bullwhip when demand is deterministic this is validated through a simple model of a production control system an expression for bullwhip in a pass on orders scenario with stochastic demand is also derived and validated using simulation we show the impact of changing batch size on bullwhip in a production control system our results show that a manager may achieve economies through batching while minimising the impact on bullwhip through the careful selection of the batch size

does devaluation make sense in the least developed countries the exchange rate is a controversial instrument of economic policy especially in developing countries even in cases where currency overvaluation is clearly a major cause of an acute balance of payments crisis the governments of developing countries are frequently reluctant to devalue apparently for three main reasons a they doubt that export production import demand and domestic expenditures are very responsive to a change in the exchange rate elasticity pessimism b they fear the potentially disruptive side effects of devaluation on inflation employment and output growth as well as on real wages and income distribution and c they want to avoid political risk the focus of the present study is on the effects of devaluation in the deficit prone least developed countries where a large part of the population barely survives on a subsistence wage to be wholly successful devaluation generally requires a reduction of real wages to encourage the expansion of exports and of import substitution without a contraction of national income hence our lead question is devaluation an appropriate method of economic stabilization in the least developed countries where a decrease of real wages or earnings could result in severe economic hardship or even starvation more specifically the aim of our study is twofold 1 to investigate the short to medium term effects of devaluation on macroeconomic performance in the least developed countries subject to the condition that real wages or earnings

the analysis of bullwhip effect in a hmms type supply chain the aim of the paper is to investigate the well known bullwhip effect of supply chains control theoretic analysis of bullwhip effect is extensively analyzed in the literature with the laplace transform this paper tries to examine the effect for an extended holt modigliani muth simon model a two stage supply chain supplier manufacturer is studied with quadratic costs functional it is assumed that both firms minimize the relevant costs the order of the manufacturer is delayed with a known constant two cases are examined supplier and manufacturer minimize the relevant costs decentralized and a centralized decision rule the question is answered how to decrease the bullwhip effect

endogenous quality differentiation in congested markets firms selling a product with congestion externalities to a heterogeneous population of customers have an incentive to offer differentiated levels of quality in a price competitive market differentiation arises endogenously through the prices chosen by firms in equilibrium firms offer a range of prices which induce an efficiency improving range of quality levels and allow customers to self select their preferred price quality combinations additional results suggest that with many firms in the market the choice of prices dominates the choice of service capacities in determining congestion levels copyright 1991 by blackwell publishing ltd

endogenous corruption in a neoclassical growth model abstract the following paper presents a simple neoclassical growth model where corruption is an endogenous result of competition between a public agent and a private agent the model provides a simple theoretical framework in which the level of corruption as well as the effects of corruption on income consumption and growth are identifiable bureaucratic red tape is then added to the model the results suggest that a priori corruption is neither efficiency enhancing nor efficiency detracting with respect to growth but always results in some income redistribution

optimizing reorder intervals for two echelon distribution systems with stochastic demand we consider a periodic review inventory system in which n non identical retailers replenish from a warehouse which further replenishes from an outside vendor with ample supply each facility faces poisson demand and replenishes according to a base stock policy in a fixed time interval fixed costs are incurred for placing an order the warehouse fills the retailers orders in the same sequence as the occurrence of the demand at the retailers the objective is to minimize the average system cost per period this paper develops an evaluation scheme and provides a method to obtain the optimal base stock levels and reorder intervals specifically with fixed reorder intervals we show that the optimal base stock levels can be obtained by generalizing the result in the literature to find the optimal reorder intervals we first allocate the total system cost to each facility and then construct a lower bound to the allocated facility cost these lower bound functions which are separable functions of reorder i

contractionary devaluation in the southern cone the case of chile abstract this paper discusses the effects of a currency devaluation on output employment and the trade balance in a small open economy chile the structure of the foreign trade sector in terms of price elasticities the sectoral differences in relative domestic value added intensities across exports and import competing industries and the degree of wage indexation are the main determinants in our model of the impact of devaluation a simulation carried out with a computable macro model for chile shows a currency devaluation to be contractionary in the short to medium run

an equilibrium queuing model of bribery it is sometimes argued that bribery is inefficient because bureaucrats may cause delays for attracting more bribes this hypothesis is examined in the context of a queue where customers having different values of time are ranked by their bribe payments to the queue s server the nash equilibrium strategies of the customers are derived it is shown that the server is unlikely to slow down the allocation process when bribery is allowed the model does not have stringent informational requirements and the equilibrium outcome minimizes the average value of time costs of the queue it also suggests a useful auctioning procedure

corruption is bad for growth even in the united states we estimate the impact of corruption on growth of output per worker in u s states we improve on existing studies of the cost of corruption by using a better specified empirical model focusing on a study population that is less likely to be affected by parameter heterogeneity and controlling for endogeneity using political variables to instrument for corruption we find that corruption plays a significant and causal role in lowering growth and investment across the states

the stabilizing effect of inventory in supply chains this paper presents a hierarchical model framework for the analysis of the stabilizing effect of inventories in multiechelon manufacturing distribution supply chains this framework is used to compare the variance of demand to the variance of replenishment orders at different echelons of the system e g retailer wholesaler empirical data and experience with management games suggest that in most industries inventory management policies can have a destabilizing effect by increasing the volatility of demand as it passes up through the chain the bullwhip effect our model helps to explain these observations and indicates mechanisms that can promote stabilization the analysis results also define sufficient conditions for the existence of stabilization and relate these conditions to the optimality of myopic control policies

quantity discounts under demand uncertainty to motivate buyers to increase their order quantity suppliers often rely on a well established and widely used approach they offer quantity discounts this practice is in large part driven to obtain improved economies in transportation through higher truckload utilization recently transportation rates which are increasing faster than other costs have become a larger portion of total net landed cost placing the traditional quantity discount practices under scrutiny many suppliers are left perplexed as to why their approach is not effective anymore and some are even concerned that their overall profits may have actually decreased due to their discount parameters in this paper we study a multiperiod model with a buyer facing stochastic end item demand and a supplier offering an all units quantity discount to him to understand better the dynamics of such systems we provide guidelines and insights on how to set effective discount parameters and when not to expect much from them we derive the opt

on the relationship between the value of the mark and german production this study employs johansen s cointegration technique to determine the long run relationship between exchange value of the dm and german production it is shown that depreciation of the dm has a long run expansionary impact on german production this conclusion is based on a new method of selecting the order of var and the appropriate cointegrating vector simultaneously

the incidence and persistence of corruption in economic development abstract economic development and bureaucratic corruption are determined jointly in a dynamic general equilibrium model of growth bribery and tax evasion corruption arises from the incentives of public and private agents to conspire in the concealment of information from the government these incentives depend on aggregate economic activity which in turn depends on the incidence of corruption the model produces multiple development regimes transition between which may or may not occur in accordance with recent empirical evidence the relationship between corruption and development is predicted to be negative

a make to stock system with multiple customer classes and batch ordering this paper examines the impact of customer order sizes on a make to stock system with multiple demand classes we first characterize the manufacturer s optimal production and rationing policies when the demand is nonunitary and lost if unsatisfied we also investigate the optimal policies of a backorder system with two demand classes and fixed order sizes through a numerical study we show the effects of batch orders on the manufacturer s inventory cost as well as on the benefit of optimal stock rationing it is shown that batch ordering may reduce the manufacturer s overall cost if carefully introduced in a first come first served fcfs system with the same effective demand rates the customers order sizes also have a strong impact on the benefit of optimal stock rationing

application of multi steps forecasting for restraining the bullwhip effect and improving inventory performance under autoregressive demand recent research suggests that the bullwhip effect or increasing variability of inventory replenishment orders as one moves up a supply chain illustrates inventory management inefficiencies this paper quantifies the bullwhip effect in the case of serially correlated external demand if autoregressive models are applied to obtain multiple steps demand forecasts a materials requirements planning mrp based inventory management approach is proposed to reduce the order variance simulation modeling is used to investigate the impact of the forecasting method selection on the bullwhip effect and inventory performance for the most downstream supply chain unit the mrp based approach is shown to reduce magnitude of the bullwhip effect while providing the inventory performance comparable to that of a traditional order up approach the application of autoregressive models compares favorably to other forecasting methods considered according to both the bullwhip effect and inventory performance criteria

preferential resource spending under an employment guarantee the political economy of mgnregs in andhra pradesh are ostensibly demand driven public works programs with high levels of safeguards nonetheless susceptible to political influence this conjecture is investigated using expenditure data at the local level from india s national rural employment guarantee scheme focusing on one state where accountability and transparency mechanisms have been employed and implementation efforts have been widely applauded there is no evidence of partisan influenced spending before the 2009 election however a statistically significant but small in magnitude effect after the 2009 election most variation in public works expenditures is explained by the observed needs of potential beneficiaries as the scheme intended

seeking rents by setting rents the political economy of rent seeking in recent years there has been a large number of papers on the subject of rent seeking most such works on rent seeking have taken the rent as exogenously determined by regulators regulators howeve r may also be expected and indeed have been shown to be rent seeke rs and hence the determination of the rent itself should be endogeniz ed to reflect the fact that the rent setters are themselves rent se ekers in this paper the authors do this by presenting an analysis o f the interaction of regulators firms and consumers within a rent s eeking framework where all three groups are assumed to be self motiva ted the analysis is carried out under alternative assumptions regard ing the nature of the market and the reaction functions of the partic ipants policy implications are drawn where appropriate copyright 1987 by royal economic society

contractionary devaluation substitution in production and consumption and the role of the labor market using a demand determined model involving both consumption goods imports and home goods with imported inputs this paper shows that the condition under which devaluation reduces demand for home goods and thus aggregate output if real exports are fixed basically depends on the sign of one plus the weighted sum of the price elasticities of demand for imported consumer goods and of derived demand for imported inputs this model includes cooper s and krugman taylor s models as special cases and shows that substitution substantially lessens the possibility of contactionary devaluation however these results are dependent on the assumptions regarding the labor market and monetary policy if wages are indexed or are determined in a labor market with labor supply dependent on real wages then output and the balance of payments again become inversely related in these circumstances devaluation alone cannot cure a balance of payments deficit a contraction of aggregate demand is required relative to an unsustainable initial level devaluation should be judged in terms of its longer run impact rather than whether it is contractionary also increased borrowing to avoid a contractionary devaluation is neither relevant nor feasible in many cases

waiting line auctions if prizes are to be awarded simultaneously at a specified time on a first come first served basis then individuals who queue for them will choose different waiting times through their arrivals at the queue this choice of arrival time at a queue is similar to the choice of a sealed tender in an auction an equilibrium for this waiting line auction is obtained here using methods for analyzing sealed tender auctions when individuals are risk neutral it is shown that several alternative waiting line allocation procedures result in the same transactions cost associated with waiting in line

an efficiency and welfare classification of rationing by waiting in the presence of bribery abstract governments often allocate commodities at low prices and on a first come first served basis rationing by waiting while bureaucrats who distribute the commodities usually take bribes a model is developed to classify the efficiency implications of bribery and socially optimal pricing schemes in rationing by waiting if the rationed good and individual income spent on other goods other income are complements then bribery may enhance allocative efficiency and a dual pricing scheme can augment social welfare however if the rationed commodity and other income are substitutes then bribery may not improve allocative efficiency and distributing the rationed commodity free is socially optimal

information distortion in a supply chain the bullwhip effect this article originally appeared in management science april 1997 volume 43 number 4 pp 546 558 published by the institute of management sciences consider a series of companies in a supply chain each of whom orders from its immediate upstream member in this setting inbound orders from a downstream member serve as a valuable informational input to upstream production and inventory decisions this paper claims that the information transferred in the form of orders tends to be distorted and can misguide upstream members in their inventory and production decisions in particular the variance of orders may be larger than that of sales and distortion tends to increase as one moves upstream a phenomenon termed bullwhip effect this paper analyzes four sources of the bullwhip effect demand signal processing rationing game order batching and price variations actions that can be taken to mitigate the detrimental impact of this distortion are also discussed

is corruption an efficient grease this paper tests whether corruption may be an efficient grease in the wheels of an otherwise deficient institutional framework it analyzes the interaction between aggregate efficiency corruption and other dimensions of governance for a panel of 69 countries both developed and developing using two measures of corruption and two other aspects of governance we observe that corruption is less detrimental to efficiency in countries where institutions are less effective it may even be positively associated with efficiency in countries where institutions are extremely ineffective we thus find evidence for the grease the wheels hypothesis in its weak and strong forms

measuring endogenous supply chain volatility beyond the bullwhip effect most recent research on supply chain volatility has focused on one particular dimension of that volatility namely the amplification of upstream order variability while not ignoring this aspect of supply chain volatility we focus on a different but equally critical aspect of volatility the cyclical oscillation of on hand and on order inventories about their target values we prove that such cyclicality does not require oscillatory or random retailer demand as a prerequisite the resulting volatility is therefore endogenous rather than simply an amplification of exogenous demand inputs we also measure the amount of amplification resulting from a step increase in demand the order amplification is the product of two factors each of which is clearly linked to either on hand or on order inventory our results attest that supply chain volatility can arise in the absence of exogenous oscillatory or random demand and suggest strategies for avoiding or minimizing such volatility

the bullwhip effect progress trends and directions the bullwhip effect refers to the phenomenon where order variability increases as the orders move upstream in the supply chain this paper provides a review of the bullwhip literature which adopts empirical experimental and analytical methodologies early econometric evidence of bullwhip is highlighted findings from empirical and experimental research are compared with analytical and simulation results assumptions and approximations for modelling the bullwhip effect in terms of demand forecast delay replenishment policy and coordination strategy are considered we identify recent research trends and future research directions concerned with supply chain structure product type price competition and sustainability

reduction of the value of information sharing as demand becomes strongly auto correlated information sharing has been identified in the academic literature as one of the most important levers to mitigate the bullwhip effect in supply chains a highly cited article on the bullwhip effect has claimed that the percentage inventory reduction resulting from information sharing in a two level supply chain when the downstream demand is autoregressive of order one is an increasing function of the autoregressive parameter of the demand in this paper we show that this is true only for a certain range of the autoregressive parameter and there is a maximum value beyond which the bullwhip ratio at the upstream stage is reduced and the percentage inventory reduction resulting from information sharing decreases towards zero we also show that this maximum value of the autoregressive parameter can be as high as 0 7 which represents a common value that may be encountered in many practical contexts this means that large benefits of information sharing cannot be assumed for those stock keeping units skus with highly positively auto correlated demand instead equally careful analysis is needed for these items as for those skus with less strongly auto correlated demand

corruption and development a review of issues in this paper we start with a discussion of some of the different denotations of the problem of corruption we then consider the ways in which the damaging consequences of corruption operate in a developing economy while not ignoring its possible redeeming features in some cases we pursue the question of why corruption is perceptibly so different in different societies and also persistent finally we examine the feasible policy issues that arise in this context

98 effective integer ratio lot sizing for one warehouse multi retailer systems a warehouse supplies n retailers constant external demand occurs at each retailer and shortages are not allowed there are linear holding costs and fixed costs for ordering at the warehouse and at each retailer the goal is to minimize the long run average cost over an infinite time horizon we define a new class of policies for this problem whose simple structure facilitates both computation and implementation the cost of a policy that is optimal within this class is shown to be within 2 of the cost of an optimal policy for the original problem in the worst case such a policy can be computed in on log n time

on controlling crime with corrupt officials abstract this paper attempts to synthesize the recently developed strategic approach towards modeling corruption and the classical views the following propositions are sought to be proved a if reward schemes are introduced the classical and the strategic approaches yield similar results so far as controlling crime is concerned b with probability of detection being dependent on the effort of a corrupt official crime cannot be controlled and c in the context of an infinitely repeated game of crime the corrupt law enforcing agent might choose less bribes and lower effort level than the myopic optimal and hence would strategically pamper crime

the optimal control of batched production and its effect on demand amplification abstract we review the control theoretic approaches made to solving aggregate production inventory problems highlighting some of their common failings one of these is the inability to realistically model batch production costs by applying a novel optimal control algorithm to a differential equation model of a production inventory system we successfully mimic these cost structures and find optimal responses to fluctuations in demand we then examine how the various penalty costs qualitatively affect the response of the system the second part of the paper deals with the supply chain phenomenon of demand amplification the tendency of small fluctuations in demand at the retailer end of the supply chain to be amplified as they are communicated down the chain by considering our production inventory system to be part of a supply chain we examine the effect of batch sizes on demand amplification under the assumption of the rational behaviour of supply chain players

clientelism corruption and the allocation of resources corruption has been shown to have more serious effects upon allocation than simply drawing resources into rent seeking activities if politicians anticipate gains from corruption in the policy making process sub optimal policies will be the result typical examples include excessive nationalization of industry excessive regulation of the private sector through practices such as licensing and quotas with a view to extract the rent created by these measures in addition further misallocation will result at the execution state it has been shown that the revisionists were wrong in assuming that licenses and contracts will be allocated to the most efficient producers that rent will be eliminated in government employment and that corruption increases the efficiency of the bureaucracy moreover differential access to government services leads to additional allocative losses

inventory performance under pack size constraints and spatially correlated demand abstract motivated by a problem facing a large retailer we consider the impact of pack size on the performance of a periodic review inventory system in the presence of spatial i e between retailers correlation of demand which we model using an equicorrelated multivariate poisson distribution employing simulation we utilise a full factorial experiment to provide support for decisions on product and supplier selection and whether or not packs should be split during distribution we consider variables such as pack size correlation and the number of branches and discuss how they and their interactions impact performance metrics such as inventory and shortage levels and the bullwhip effect

using scheduled ordering to improve the performance of distribution supply chains we study a supply chain with one supplier and many retailers that face exogenous end customer demands the supplier and the retailers all try to minimize their own inventory related costs in contrast to the retailers newsvendor type ordering behavior under which retailers may place orders freely in every period we propose two scheduled ordering policies the scheduled balanced ordering policy sbop and the scheduled synchronized ordering policy ssop under both the sbop and ssop retailers are allowed to order freely only in one period of an ordering cycle and receive fixed shipments in other periods retailers take turns to order freely under the sbop while under the ssop all retailers order freely in the same period with the average supply chain cost per period as the performance measure we identify mathematical conditions under which scheduled ordering policies outperform the newsvendor type ordering through a large scale numerical study we find that scheduled ordering policies are most effective when i the supplier s holding and expediting costs are high and the retailer s backorder cost is small ii the end customer demand variance and correlation are high and iii the supplier s capacity is high in addition we observe that the behavior of the ssop often complements that of the sbop whereas the sbop is better than ssop when the supplier s capacity is low and when the end customer demand correlation level is high the ssop is better when the opposite conditions prevail

incentive compatible pricing for a service facility with joint production and congestion externalities this paper considers the pricing problem of a service facility when services are jointly produced by the customers and the facility building on the work of mendelson 1985 we model the facility as a gi gi 1 queue with customer chosen service rates and linear delay costs we show that the service rates chosen by the customers based on their self interest are always suboptimal for the facility due to congestion externalities we derive optimal incentive compatible pricing schemes that can achieve optimal arrival rates and induce customers to choose optimal service rates for the case of systemwide net value maximization we show that the optimal incentive compatible pricing scheme consists of a variable fee that is proportional to the actual service time and a fixed rebate that is equal to a customer1s expected delay cost in the queue for the case of profit maximization of the facility we show that the optimal pricing scheme again consists of a fixed fee and a variable fee one insight from our analysis is that it may be appropriate for a service facility to reimburse each customer for his actual delay cost in the queue

how does corruption affect public debt an empirical analysis summary this paper investigates the relationship between corruption the shadow economy and public debt it additionally examines whether the shadow economy increases the adverse effects of corruption on public debt the model is empirically tested for 126 countries over 1996 2012 using ordinary least squares ols fixed effects system generalized method of moments gmm and instrumental variable estimation and two measures of corruption the transparency international corruption perceptions index and the kaufmann et al corruption index results confirm that increased corruption and a larger shadow economy lead to an increase in public debt results additionally indicate that the shadow economy magnifies the effect of corruption on public debt suggesting that they act as complements results also suggest that a larger shadow economy reduces tax revenues and thus increases public debt similarly higher government expenditure enhances the effects of corruption on government debt hence reducing corruption should be a primary policy goal of governments given the complementarity detected between corruption and the shadow economy reducing corruption would also lead to a fall in the size of the shadow economy and public debt reducing corruption will also minimize the adverse effects of corruption on government debt through government expenditure

managing supply chain demand variability with scheduled ordering policies this paper studies supply chain demand variability in a model with one supplier and n retailers that face stochastic demand retailers implement scheduled ordering policies orders occur at fixed intervals and are equal to some multiple of a fixed batch size a method is presented that exactly evaluates costs previous research demonstrates that the supplier s demand variance declines as the retailers order intervals are balanced i e the same number of retailers order each period this research shows that the supplier s demand variance will generally decline as the retailers order interval is lengthened or as their batch size is increased lower supplier demand variance can certainly lead to lower inventory at the supplier this paper finds that reducing supplier demand variance with scheduled ordering policies can also lower total supply chain costs

a dynamic model of corruption deterrence abstract this paper presents a model of corruption deterrence with a simple overlapping generations structure built into it a crucial assumption is that when corruption becomes more prevalent in the economy it is harder to audit a corrupt official effectively it is shown that this assumption may give rise to several stationary equilibrium levels of corruption this possibility has been exploited to explain why sometimes a government may temporarily resort to an extremely severe deterrence policy and why the same deterrence scheme may imply quite different levels of corruption a case study is provided to give empirical support to the model

coordinated replenishment strategies in inventory distribution systems in this paper we study the impact of coordinated replenishment and shipment in inventory distribution systems we analyze a system with multiple retailers and one outside supplier random demand occurs at each retailer and the supplier replenishes all the retailers in traditional inventory models each retailer orders directly from the supplier whenever the need arises we present a new centralized ordering policy that orders for all retailers simultaneously the new policy is equivalent to the introduction of a warehouse with no inventory that is in charge of the ordering allocation and distribution of inventory to the retailers under such a policy orders for some retailers may be postponed or expedited so that they can be batched with other retailers orders which results in savings in ordering and shipping costs in addition to the policy we propose for supplying inventory to the retailers we also consider three other policies that are based on these well known policies in the literature a can order policy b echelon inventory policy and c fixed replenishment interval policy furthermore we create a framework for simultaneously making inventory and transportation decisions by incorporating the transportation costs or limited truck capacities we numerically compare the performance of our proposed policy with these policies to identify the settings in which each policy would perform well

value of capacity pooling in supply chains with heterogeneous customers we investigate the value of pooling capacity in supply chains that serve product demands of different variabilities we build and analyze models that integrate production queuing models with base stock inventory systems serving demands with different inter arrival time distributions the first model combines hyperexponential and exponential demand inter arrival time distributions exact analysis of the model allows us to develop insights into the impact of the difference in demand variabilities on the value of pooling capacity simulation experiments allow us to validate these insights for more general settings we then find one special case that combines exponential and deterministic demand arrivals with deterministic service where pooling capacity results in increasing the total cost

distribution and development in a model of misgovernance abstract this paper presents an analysis of bureaucratic corruption income inequality and economic development the analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model in which bureaucrats are appointed by the government to implement a redistributive programme of taxes and subsidies designed to benefit the poor corruption is reflected in bribery and tax evasion as bureaucrats conspire with the rich in providing false information to the government in accordance with empirical evidence the model predicts a positive relationship between corruption and inequality and a negative relationship between corruption and development

one warehouse multiretailer systems with centralized stock information we consider a distribution system with a central warehouse and multiple retailers the warehouse orders from an outside supplier and replenishes the retailers which in turn satisfy customer demand the retailers are nonidentical and their demand processes are independent compound poisson there are economies of scale in inventory replenishment which is controlled by an echelon stock batch transfer policy for the special case with simple poisson demand we develop an exact method for computing the long run average holding and backorder costs of the system based on this exact method we provide approximations for compound poisson demand numerical examples are used to illustrate the accuracy of the approximations we also present a numerical comparison between the average costs of a heuristic echelon stock policy and an existing lower bound on the average costs of all feasible policies

comments on information distortion in a supply chain the bullwhip effect in this commentary we trace back how we pursued research on the bullwhip effect which resulted in the article published in management science we reflect on the evolution of this concept the impact that our work has had on industry the way our work has been used in the teaching of supply chain management and the key directions of research that have taken place since then

quantifying the bullwhip effect using two echelon data a cross industry empirical investigation the bullwhip effect denotes the phenomenon whereby demand variability is amplified from a downstream site buyer to an upstream site supplier in the supply chain this paper contributes to the literature that empirically investigates the bullwhip effect by providing new evidence regarding its prevalence and magnitude in contrast to previous work we use a two echelon approach which allows us to observe variations at both the upstream and the downstream sites by drawing on a financial accounting standard regarding information disclosure about major customers we are able to link 5494 buyers and suppliers in the u s between 1976 and 2009 we merge this information with quarterly financial accounting data to form a sample of 14 933 buyer supplier dyad observations we correct for sample selection bias using propensity score matching and estimate the average bullwhip effect in our sample to be 1 90 i e 90 demand variability amplification between echelons a significant bullwhip effect is observed across industries mining manufacturing wholesale and retail and is supported by several robustness checks we investigate and discuss how these results can be generalized beyond our sample

a model of bureaucracy and corruption we analyze bureaucracy and corruption in a market with decentralized exchange and lemons exchange is modeled as a sequence of bilateral random matches agents have private information about the quality of goods they produce and can supplement trade with socially inefficient bribes bureaucracy is modeled as a group of agents who enjoy centralized production and consumption transaction patterns between the bureaucracy and the private sector are fully endogenous centralized production and consumption in the bureaucracy give rise to low power incentives for the individual bureaucrats as a result private agents might bribe bureaucrats whereas they do not bribe each other an equilibrium with corruption and an equilibrium without corruption can coexist we discuss some welfare implications of the model

does devaluation improve the current account this paper incorporates the link between devaluation foreign interest payments and the current acccount into a fairly general macroeconomic model in which exchange rate changes influence aggregate demand through exports imports and expenditures as well as aggregate supply via the cost of imported factors of production on the basis of avaliable statistical estimates of the behavioral and structural parameters of the model an attempt is mafe to assess the empirical importance of this link among others in a group of highly indebted industrial and developing countries by and large the empirical results indicate that high foreign debt and interest payments tend to reduce the short to medium run effect of devaluation on national income expecially in the ldcs but make little difference to its generally positive effect on the current account

a multiechelon inventory model with fixed replenishment intervals this paper develops a new model for studying multiechelon inventory systems with stochastic demand for the model we assume that each site in the system orders at preset times according to an order up to policy that delivery times are deterministic and that the demand processes are stochastic with independent increments we introduce a new scheme for allocating stock in short supply which we call virtual allocation and which permits significant tractability we exercise the model on a set of test problems for two echelon systems to get insight into the structure of good policies the primary findings are that both the central warehouse upper echelon and the retail sites lower echelon should hold safety stock but that most of the safety stock should be at the retail sites consequently the central warehouse will stock out with high probability furthermore we show that the virtual allocation rule is near optimal for the set of test problems

industrial production volatility and the supply chain abstract the issue of production volatility is important to firms interested in managing their supply chain this paper empirically estimates the volatility of industrial production using the garch and egarch time series models three questions are addressed can volatility be predicted is the effect of unexpected changes in production on volatility asymmetric and how persistent is volatility following a production disturbance the results indicate that production volatility is time varying and can be predicted in the majority of cases examined and that overestimates of production lead to greater increases in volatility than do underestimates

on the effect of devaluation during stabilization programs in ldcs this paper is a cross section study of the effect of real devaluations on capacity utilization during stabilization programs in ldcs it finds that such devaluations had a significant negative effect on output as predicted in many recent papers this was not because devaluation caused a rise in aggregate saving but more because of a sharp contraction in investment external factors such as terms of trade and the capacity to import had a significant positive impact while monetary and fiscal policy played only a minor role copyright 1992 by mit press

how corruption influences foreign direct investment a panel data study abstract this article analyzes the sign and development of the effect of corruption on foreign direct investment fdi economic theory distinguishes grabbing hand corruption from helping hand corruption the former suggests a negative impact of corruption on fdi the latter one a positive effect empirically we apply a data set of 21 home and 59 developed and less developed host countries covering between 1983 and 1999 to investigate the corruption impact we employ a panel data model that particularly refers to the knowledge capital model of multinational activity we find a negative relationship between corruption and fdi this in turn suggests that the helping hand effects of corruption are outweighed by the grabbing hand effects further we observe that corruption is an important impediment of fdi in developed economies but not in less developed ones finally we demonstrate that the importance of corruption has decreased over the years

exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries abstract we outline three channels via which a devaluation has a direct contractionaly impact on the aggregate supply side of the economy local currency costs of intermediate imports wage indexing in the presence of food imports and reduced volume of real credit to firms contractionary effects via the supply side are more damaging than krugman taylor effects via aggregate demand since a cut in aggregate supply leads to upward pressure on inflation while a cut in aggregate demand tends to abate inflation upward pressure on inflation may over time threaten the increase in competitiveness a nominal devaluation also intends to achieve we also discuss the implications of a substantial foreign debt we demonstrate that a successful devaluation raises the real in terms of domestic goods debt service burden causing a krugman taylor like contractionary effect on aggregate demand we then analyse the effects of a preannounced slowdown of the rate of depreciation our results of course do not imply that a devaluation should never be considered they do suggest however that a devaluation is likely to be an ineffective tool for demand management since it may cut aggregate supply as much or more in the short run

bullwhip effect measurement and its implications the bullwhip effect or demand information distortion has been a subject of both theoretical and empirical studies in the operations management literature in this paper we develop a simple set of formulas that describe the traditional bullwhip measure as a combined outcome of several important drivers such as finite capacity batch ordering and seasonality our modeling framework is descriptive in nature as it features certain plausible approximations that are commonly employed in practical inventory systems the results are nonetheless compelling and can be used to explain various conflicting observations in previous empirical studies building on the theoretical framework we discuss the managerial implications of the bullwhip measurement we show that the measurement can be completely noninformative about the underlying supply chain cost performance if it is not linked to the operational details such as decision intervals and leadtimes specifically we show that an aggregated measurement over relatively long time periods can mask the operational level bullwhip in addition we show that masking also exists under product or location aggregation in some illustrative cases

exact and approximate evaluation of batch ordering policies for two level inventory systems we consider a two level inventory system with one warehouse and n identical retailers lead times transportation times are constant and the retailers face independent poisson demand in a previous paper we derived a recursive procedure for determining the policy costs for an average item in case of one for one replenishment policies in this paper we show how these results can be used for the exact or approximate evaluation of more general policies where both the retailers and the warehouse order in batches we compare our methods to the method recently suggested by a svoronos and p zipkin

corruption delivery systems and property rights a comment abstract this comment on vijay jagannathan s article corruption delivery systems and property rights world development vol 14 no 1 1986 casts the problem of corruption in the framework of neoclassical economic theory it is shown that there is not necessarily a problem of loss of efficiency as is commonly understood in a system of monetized corruption but there may be a problem of equity or waste due to an excessive investment of time and resource cost in securing a particular job

the market for public office why the indian state is not better at development abstract how and why officials are transferred from one post to another can in india does have far reaching consequences for the effectiveness of public service organizations such as irrigation agriculture forestry and soil conservation departments the transfer mechanism used in many departments of indian states involves a kind of internal labor market a truer market than in the way that term is often used by labor market economists it allows pressures for corrupt behavior to bear down on the incumbents of certain posts and itself amplifies those pressures frequently the pressures on officials to be corrupt cause them to behave in ways contrary to the ostensible objectives of their departments why is the indian state not better at promoting development to an important degree because of the corruption transfer mechanism and its effects on bureaucratic initiatives