paying down the environmental debt we reflect on scenarios of sustain able development constant utility paths in which the stock of pollution is drawn down by investments in environmental cleanup we also report on con stant utility as interest on the vector of capital stocks in our economy jel 02 the costs of cleaning up the environment involve multiyear programs for many sites and or problems and sums in the billions of dollars we have superfund activities in the united states in mind but obviously the site cleanup problems facing the people of eastern europe are also very large scale cleanup expenditures resemble programs of investment in infrastructure rather than once over disbursements for troubleshoot

intergenerational equity the capital environment trade off abstract this paper examines the trade off between capital accumulation and environmental quality that determines an intergenerationally equitable program according to the rawls maximin criterion this trade off is explored by an analysis of regular maximin programs in the framework developed by brock this results in a constant utility path supported by competitive prices with government imposed effluent charges and environmental rentals sufficient conditions for a regular maximin path to satisfy a hartwick rule in deciding on the combination of capital and environmental quality left to future generations are given

accounting for external costs in a study of a swedish district heating system an assessment of environmental policies sweden has historically had strict emission control by implementation of economic policy instruments with the aim of internalising the external costs of air pollution this study aims to evaluate how well current swedish policy instruments reflect the environmental costs associated with heat generation in several district heating dh plants in the dh system of goteborg furthermore it aims to simulate and evaluate the operation of the dh system based on its social cost effectiveness which takes into account the dh system s private and external costs non internalised environmental costs the study shows that the economic policy instruments do not fully internalise all external costs whereas for certain technologies the costs in terms of taxes emission permits environmental fees etc are higher than the environmental costs caused by the pollutants given the environmental cost estimates used in the study the simulation results show that the deviating internalisation of external costs affects the economic ranking of the different plants within the studied dh system the estimated loss in social cost effectiveness of the operation of the dh system of goteborg is noticable but relatively small if compared to the variable heat generation costs for most of the studied dh plants c 2010 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

ecological economic viability as a criterion of strong sustainability under uncertainty strong sustainability according to the common definition requires that different natural and economic capital stocks be maintained as physical quantities separately yet in a world of uncertainty this cannot be guaranteed to therefore define strong sustainability under uncertainty in an operational manner we propose to use the concept of viability viability means that the different components and functions of a dynamic stochastic system at any time remain in a domain where the future existence of these components and functions is guaranteed with sufficiently high probability we develop a unifying and general ecological economic concept of viability that encompasses the traditional ecological and economic notions of viability as special cases it provides an operational criterion of strong sustainability under a mild form of uncertainty and for medium spatial and temporal scales we illustrate this concept and demonstrate its usefulness by applying it to livestock grazing management in semi arid rangelands publication ecological economic viability as a criterion of strong sustainability under uncertainty available from https www researchgate net publication 46490456 ecological economic viability as a criterion of strong sustainability under uncertainty accessed apr 3 2017

nonrenewable resource scarcity nonrenewable resource theory often is summarized by hotelling s rule this paper reviews theoretical extensions and empirical investigations of resource extraction models observed data are often inconsistent with the hotelling rule suggesting that other characteristics of nonrenewable resource supply including exploration heterogeneous ore quality technological progress and capital investment are important determinants of the dynamic behavior of resource prices given the persistent recurrence of concern about nonrenewable resource scarcity measures of nonrenewable resource scarcity and the empirical evidence for the time trends of those measures are reviewed finally the implications of nonrenewable resource scarcity for economic growth are examined

a parsimonious model for forecasting gross box office revenues of motion pictures the primary objective of this paper is to develop a parsimonious model for forecasting the gross box office revenues of new motion pictures based on early box office data the paper also seeks to provide insights into the impact of distribution policies on the adoption of new products the model is intended to assist motion picture exhibitor chains retailers in managing their exhibition capacity and in negotiating exhibition license agreements with distributors studios by allowing them to project the box office potential of the movies they plan to or currently exhibit based on early box office results it is also of interest to practitioners in other software industries e g music books cd roms where the distribution intensity is highly variable over the product life cycle and is an important determinant of new product adoption patterns the model and its extensions are of interest to academic researchers interested in modeling distribution effects in new product adoption as well as forecasters looking for ways to leverage historical data on related products to forecast the sales of new products we draw upon a queuing theory framework to conceptualize stochastically the consumer s movie adoption process in two steps the time to decide to see the new movie and the time to act on the adoption decision the parameter for the time to decide process captures the intensity of information intensity flowing from various information sources while the parameter for the time to act process is related to the delay created by limited distribution intensity and other factors our conceptualization extends existing new product forecasting models which assume that consumers act instantaneously on the motivating information they receive about the new product the resulting model is parsimonious yet it accommodates a wide range of adoption patterns in addition the stochastic formulation allows us to quantify the uncertainty surrounding the expected adoption pattern in the empirical testing we focus on the most parsimonious version of the modeling framework boxmod i a model that assumes stationarity with respect to the two shape parameters that characterize the adoption process the model produces fairly accurate early forecasts using at most the first three weeks of data for calibration and the predictive performance of the model compares favorably with benchmark models we propose extensions of the basic model that account for more realistic non stationary distribution intensity patterns including a wide release pattern that relies on intensive distribution and promotion and a platform release pattern that involves a gradual buildup of distribution intensity finally we present an adaptive weighing scheme that combines initial parameter estimates obtained from a meta analysis procedure with estimates obtained from early data to produce forecasts of box office revenues for a new movie when little or no box office data are available an important finding from the empirical testing is that motion picture box office revenue patterns display remarkable empirical regularity we find that there are only three classes of adoption patterns and these can all be represented within the basic model by using a two parameter exponential or erlang 2 probability distribution or a three parameter generalized gamma distribution we also find that cumulative box office revenues can be predicted with reasonable accuracy often within 10 of the actual using as little as two or three data points however our attempts to predict revenue patterns without any sales data meet with limited success while the scale parameter can be estimated reasonably well from a historical database of parameter values we find that it is considerably more difficult to predict the shape parameters using historical data the parsimony we seek in developing the model comes at the cost of several limiting assumptions we assume that the time to decide subprocess and the time to act subprocess are independent which may not be the case if decisions on continued exhibition by retailers are endogenously related to box office revenues over the life cycle in the basic model formulation we also assume that the time to act process can be represented by an exponential distribution which may not always be the case while we provide some empirical evidence to support these assumptions further research could relax these and other assumptions to enrich the basic model although this would entail some loss in parsimony

the concept of natural capital the natural environment is now commonly viewed as a form of capital asset or natural capital also included are ecosystems that provide important goods and services to the economy managing natural capital has consequences for sustainable development however there are contrasting weak versus strong sustainability views which in turn have implications for green accounting natural resource based sovereign wealth funds have emerged as key financial instruments for compensating resource depreciation with greater economy wide investments recent scientific evidence recommends demarcating safe operating spaces to limit exploitation of critical global biophysical subsystems or processes these challenges suggest that the concept of natural capital is pivotal to sound policy

movie advertising and the stock market valuation of studios a case of great expectations product innovation is the key revenue driver in the motion picture industry because major studios typically launch fewer than 20 movies per year the financial performance of a single release can have a major effect on the studio s profitability in this paper we study how single movie releases impact the investor valuation of the studio we analyze the change in postlaunch stock price and predict the direction and magnitude of excess returns based on the revenue expectation built up for a movie release that expectation is set in part by media support i e highly advertised movies are expected to draw larger audiences than others by using an event study methodology we isolate the impact of a movie launch on studio stock price and track the determinants of that change we examine a comprehensive data set comprising over 300 movies released by the largest studios our results indicate a clear interaction between the marketing support received by a movie and the direction and magnitude of its excess stock return post launch movies with above average prelaunch advertising have lower postlaunch stock returns than films with below average advertising our findings also suggest that movies that are hits at the box office may result in a lowering of stock price if they had high media support because of high performance expectations built up prior to launch thus prelaunch advertising plays a dual role of informing consumers about a movie s arrival as well as helping investors form expectations about the studio s profit performance

constant consumption as interest on capital we consider the concepts of aggregate capital value arising in solow s constant consumption model for a traditional concept we establish consumption as interest on wealth in the sense of the interest flow being the vector product of weighted current values of capital stocks and own interest rates consumption can be viewed as maximum sustainable net product i introduction there is a presumption that net investment zero a generalization of investing exhaustible resource rents as in hartwick 1977 must be associated with preserving capital intact see dixit hammond hoel 1980 in fact solow 1986 set this argument out in some detail maintaining capital intact seems like a reasonable prescription for sutainable development elsewhere sustainable development has been tied to non declining consumption following solow s 1974 constant consumption model 2 there are at least two candidates for capital in maintaining capital intact that can be associated with solow s 1974 constant consumption model the two were present in solow 1986 i mention them below and analyze a new approach to linking constant consumption to capital value as in consumption is interest on capital our approach is to make all inputs in current production flows from explicit stocks in this extended solow 1974 model we observe a aggregate consumption constant under zeronet investment and b constant consumption is interest on capital in the sense n

a bayesian model to forecast new product performance in domestic and international markets this paper attempts to shed light on the following research questions when a firm introduces a new product or service how can it effectively use the different information sources available to generate reliable new product performance forecasts how can the firm account for varying information availability at different stages of the new product launch and generate forecasts at each stage we address these questions in the context of the sequential launches of motion pictures in international markets players in the motion picture industry require forecasts at different stages of the movie launch process to aid decision making and the information sets available to generate such forecasts vary at different stages despite the importance of such forecasts the industry struggles to understand and predict sales of new movies in domestic and overseas markets we develop a bayesian modeling framework that predicts first week viewership for new movies in both domestic and several international markets we focus on the first week because industry players involved in international markets studios distributors and exhibitors are most interested in these predictions we draw on existing literature on forecasting performance of new movies to formulate our model specifically we model the number of viewers of a movie in a given week using a poisson count data model the number of screens distribution strategy movie attributes such as genre and presence absence of stars are among the factors modeled to influence viewership we employ a hierarchical bayes formulation of the poisson model that allows the determinants of viewership to vary across countries we adopt the bayesian approach for two reasons first it provides a convenient framework to model varying assumptions of information availability specifically it allows us to make forecasts by combining different sources of information such as domestic and international market specific data second this methodology provides us with the entire distribution of the new movie s performance forecast such a predictive distribution is more informative than a point estimate and provides a measure of the uncertainty in the forecasts we propose a bayesian prediction procedure that provides viewership forecasts at different stages of the new movie release process the methodology provides forecasts under a number of information availability scenarios thus forecasts can be obtained with just information from a historical database containing data on previous new product launches in several international markets as more information becomes available the forecasting methodology allows us to combine historical information with data on the performance of the new product in the domestic market and thereby to make forecasts with less uncertainty and greater accuracy our results indicate that for all the countries in the data set the number of screens on which a movie is released is the most important influence on viewership furthermore we find that local distribution improves movie sales internationally in contrast to the domestic market we also find evidence of similar genre preferences in geographically disparate countries we find that the proposed model provides accurate forecasts at the movie country level further the model outperforms all the extant models in the marketing literature that could potentially be used for making these forecasts a comparison of root mean square and mean absolute errors for movies in a hold out sample shows that the model that combines information available from the different sources generates the lowest errors a bayesian predictive model selection criterion corroborates the superior performance of this model we demonstrate that the bayesian model can be combined with industry rules of thumb to generate cumulative box office forecasts in summary this research demonstrates a bayesian modeling framework that allows the use of different information sources to make new product forecasts in domestic and international markets our results underscore the theme that each movie is unique as is each country and viewership results from an interaction of the product and the market hence the motion picture industry should use both product specific and market specific information to make new movie performance forecasts

constant consumption and the economic depreciation of natural capital the nonautonomous case we investigate economic depreciation of natural capital for cases of nonstationary output prices technology and interest rates for the former two cases exogenous movements in prices and technology constant consumption emerges under a strategy of investing to cover off economic depreciation the interest rate case requires a modified sinking fund strategy

the effects of shared consumption on product life cycles and advertising effectiveness the case of the motion picture market abstractconsumers frequently consume hedonic products together with other consumers and derive value from this shared experience this article investigates the impact of shared consumption a type of social influence that determines the enjoyment of joint experiences in the context of a typical hedonic product movies the authors argue that this type of influence has important consequences for the diffusion curves of hedonic goods that are consumed together and the effectiveness of advertising in generating launch and postlaunch sales an empirically validated agent based model simulates the u s motion picture market with new movies launching competing and exiting the agent based model serves as a means to demonstrate the essential role of shared consumption for explaining movie life cycles and tests how advertising expenditures accelerate and or acquire movies demand in markets with varying levels of shared consumption the results provide key theoretical insights for the new product diffusion of

national product related welfare measures in the presence of technological change externalities and uncertainty the purpose of this paper is to discuss under what conditions welfare can be measured by observables related to the national product or hamiltonian along the optimal trajectory under nonattributable technological or environmental change welfare will depend on time itself meaning that the hamiltonian along the optimal trajectory will be a biased measure of welfare this result will also hold if we make the time dependence of welfare endogenous by replacing technological change will externalities that are not internalized during optimization on the other hand if we take the externalities fully into account then the hamiltonian will represent the appropriate measure of welfare similar results also hold in the case of uncertainty where we show that a generalized hamiltonian provides a welfare measure and that the deterministic measures are special cases of their stochastic counterparts

economics and sustainability balancing trade offs and imperatives the concept of sustainability has been increasingly invoked in scholarly and public policy debates discussion has been hampered however by uncertainty and lack of uniformity in the meaning of sustainability this paper seeks to identify some common ground among economists ecologists and environmen tal ethicists two issues seem salient require ments for intergenerational and the defi nition of social capital to be provided to future generations a concept of safe minimum standard which has received at least some recognition in the ecology philosophy and eco nomics literatures may provide the beginnings of a common ground for debate about sus tainability jel q2

sustainability and technical progress a rigorous model connects together the following three basic concepts 1 sustainability meaning the generalized future power of an economy to consume over time 2 green nnp meaning a current measure of national income that subtracts off from gnp not just depreciation of capital but also more generally depletion of environmental assets evaluated at current efficiency prices 3 technological progress meaning a projection onto the future of the so called solow residual a simple general formula is derived some crude calculations suggest a possibly strong effect of the residual which hints that our best present estimates of long term sustainability may be largely driven by predictions of future technological progress

assessment of the performance and sustainability of mining sub soil assets for economic development in south africa abstract a natural resource accounting approach was applied in this study to evaluate the performance and sustainability of mining practices and strategies in south africa sa the study showed that except for a brief period during the 1980s rent capture was very low and almost all the resource rent from minerals dissipated to private companies recently however user costs have appeared to have been reasonably recovered by taxes and institutional royalties and the capital component of the rent user cost has fully been reinvested by mining companies while adequate reinvestment of recovered user costs in alternative forms of capital might imply sustainable management this can only hold under the assumptions of perfect substitution between human made and natural capital of the weak sustainability ws paradigm however even if one adopts ws the present analysis could not provide adequate evidence in support of the prudence of mining activities in the country this is due to a lack of adequate information on the proportions of royalties and taxes reinvested collected by the government and private landowners moreover the fact that this study does not account for the environmental impacts of mining is another important limitation on the ability of the present analysis to conclude that mineral resources have been prudently exploited in sa

accounting for the value of ecosystem services abstract a value of ecosystem services ves may be calculated by multiplying a set of ecosystem services by a set of corresponding shadow prices this paper examines the role of the ves concept in measuring trends in human well being under conventional arguments from applied welfare economics standard measures of market consumption may be extended to include the value of direct environmental services which affect welfare in ways that are not mediated by the consumption of purchased goods the ves concept does not capture values such as ecological sustainability and distributional fairness that are not reducible to individual welfare and its operationalization is constrained by the well known limitations of nonmarket valuation methods nonetheless attempts to calculate the value of environmental services can provide insights into the tradeoffs between market activity and environmental quality that are implicit in the process of economic growth such efforts can promote informed debate concerning the achievement of sustainable development

air pollution and green accounts a simple model treating air emissions as cumulative pollutants is used to derive measures of green net national product the model implies that pollution emissions are properly valued at their marginal social costs in the measurement of green nnp the level of genuine savings net savings less the value of resource depletion and pollution emissions is shown to provide a useful indicator of sustainable development recent figures on the social costs of fuel cycles are used to derive genuine savings measures for the uk and other european nations several countries had negative genuine savings during the 1980s

net national product as a welfare indicator the question of whether changes in net national product nnp will measure changes in welfare is investigated in this paper m weitzman 1976 demonstrated that under specific conditions nnp is proportional to discounted consumption the result requires nnp to be measured in current prices in utility units changes in real nnp measured using given prices from a base year will not represent a complete account of welfare changes copyright 1994 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

the genuine progress indicator methodological developments and results from australia abstract this paper is a contribution to the continuing development of the methods and results for the index of sustainable economic welfare also known as the genuine progress indicator gpi it attempts a more systematic approach to some of the components of the gpi it includes a more careful specification of types of capital and more plausible methods of estimating the costs of depletion of non renewable resources and environmental damage due to ozone depletion in addition the paper attempts a more comprehensive treatment of the value of time including the costs of unemployment and overwork results of the gpi calculations for australia over the period 1950 1996 are presented and analysed

household consumption smoothing through ethnic ties evidence from cote d ivoire abstract this paper investigates the hypothesis that households in cote d ivoire take part in spatially diversified risk sharing arrangements with members of their own ethnic group empirical tests are presented using several estimation methods to deal with heteroscedasticity measurement error and extreme value problems to examine whether results are robust across estimation procedures the hypothesis of complete risk sharing within ethnic groups is rejected however there appears to be some partial insurance performed by individual households with other members of the same ethnic group particularly for the households residing in the regions least likely to have access to formal financial arrangements

the role of technological progress in testing adjusted net savings evidence from oecd countries abstract in this paper we investigate the relationship between comprehensive measures of savings and changes in future consumption in oecd countries this relationship is at the basis of the interpretation of adjusted net savings as a weak sustainability indicator and so evidence of its validity provides support to the use of this indicator we construct various measures of comprehensive savings for 20 oecd countries to include depletion from non renewable resources human capital investment and technological progress given their importance especially for rich countries we focus on the role of technical progress and human capital in the form of changes in education level we do not find strong evidence in favor of including green adjustments in the conventional net savings however we find compelling evidence for the inclusion of technological progress since this involves a forward looking term the above result suggests that to construct an indicator of weak sustainability from conventional net savings some estimate of future technological progress is needed

wealth and sustainability for economists in 1974 it was a live question whether the exhaustion of natural resources such as oil would necessarily lead to the decline of economic activity solow showed that constant levels of consumption could be sustained in the face of exhaustibility if there is sufficient substitutability between produced and natural factors of production hartwick then proved that underpinning this result is a saving rule set investment in produced capital equal to the value of resource depletion at each point in time a large literature has shown that a comprehensive measure of the change in real wealth net saving plays a central role in determining whether current well being can be sustained in particular current declines in real wealth signal that future well being will also decline a result that has been confirmed empirically using data for developing countries changes in wealth and sustainability are therefore joined at the hip the current composition of wealth serves to define the policy challenges that countries face in achieving sustainable development if substitution possibilities are limited between natural and other factors of production as one might expect then technical progress is a necessary complement to policies for sustainability

on the intergenerational allocation of natural resources it is known hartwick and others that under standard assumptions a society that invests in reproducible capital the competitive rents on its current extraction of exhaustible resources will enjoy a consumption stream constant in time it is shown here that this result can be interpreted as saying that an appropriately defined stock of capital including the initial endowment of resources is being maintained intact and that consumption can be interpreted as the interest on that patrimony this seems like a useful rule of thumb for policy

on the peaking of consumption with exhaustible resources and zero net investment we investigate an intertemporal model with an exhaustible resource inflowwhich exhibits a single peak in consumption on the path of development thepeak follows the date at which net investment is zero the top ofconsumption is higher and flatter and peaks later when the discount rate islower low endowments of the exhaustible resource stock and high discount rates are associated with strictly declining consumption paths

environmental externalities and social optimality in biomass markets waste to energy in the netherlands and biofuels in france this paper explores two existing markets for energy produced from biomass waste to energy electricity production in the netherlands and the blending of biofuels with oil based fossil fuels in cars in france both cases provide excellent material to analyse social optimality of current biomass markets vis a vis their fossil fuel substitute the paper applies social cost benefit analysis to estimate both private and environmental cost of these supplies and uses the results to evaluate actual government behaviour in both countries the main findings for the waste to energy case in the netherlands are perhaps somewhat surprizingly that waste to energy is optimal only if the alternative of landfilling is excluded as an opportunity for waste management the case for biofuels in france shows that the take off of this market is only due to considerable government subsidization these subsidies cannot be defended by the difference they make in externality reduction even if the opportunity cost and benefits of set aside land are included as well as the potential productivity improvements

neoclassical natural capital theory and weak indicators for sustainability we appraise neoclassical theory of growth with natural capital for the estimation of indicators for sustainability relationships between four theoretically distinct measures are clarified hicksian change in capital stock value the hartwick net savings which excludes capital gains sustainable national income sni and environmentally adjusted net national product gnnp an overlapping generations olg general equilibrium model with depletable natural capital demonstrates the significance of model parameters determining technical feasibility and intertemporal distribution of consumption irremediable uncertainties in model specification and empirical measurement mean that the neoclassical theory is not robust for defining or estimating indicators for sustainability

sustainability economics general versus specific and conceptual versus practical we clarify the definition and interpretation of sustainability economics baumgartner and quaas 2010 in response to recent comments by van den bergh 2010 bartelmus 2010 and others for that sake we distinguish between general and specific definitions of sustainability and sustainability economics as well as between conceptual and practical approaches

the hartwick rule myths and facts we shed light on the hartwick rule for capital accumulation and resource depletion by providing semantic clarifications and investigating the implications and relevance of this rule we extend earlier results by establishing that the hartwick rule does not indicate sustainability and does not require substitutability between man made and naturalcapital we use a new class of simple counterexamples i to obtain the novel finding that a negative value of net investments need not entail that utility is unsustainable and ii to point out deficiencies in the literature

international trade and the sustainability footprint a practical criterion for its assessment a simple and minimal criterion for sustainability is that the value of natural capital plus manufactured capital be not decreasing on the basis of any individual country or region the above simple comparison may be misleading as it does not take account of the production of goods for consumption in other countries regions via international trade in other terms the full environmental footprint of a country may not be properly assessed a method of calculating a weak sustainability criterion has been established for both a closed economy approach and an open economy approach there are significant differences between the open and closed economies measures for several regions particularly the middle east overall global sustainability on this criterion has been positive and increasing using a difference equation approach a further analysis has been made of the average proportional rate of change of global sustainability between 1980 and 1990 and its various regional and structural components have been determined these indicate that most of global sustainability growth can be attributed to western europe other asia and japan particularly through high savings ratios the usa on the other hand has made a very small net contribution to the growth in global sustainability

assessing sustainability a comprehensive wealth accounting prospect an application to mozambique we estimate the wealth of mozambique in 2000 and 2005 in order to assess the sustainability of its development path our methodology builds on arrow et al 2010 we show that mozambican wealth increases through human and physical capital accumulation while the pressure on natural capital remains low the growth of total factor productivity enhances the outcome of the different capital assets but population growth has a strong downward effect on wealth per capita results suggest that mozambican development was sustainable between 2000 and 2005 but these remain ambiguous and are highly sensitive to data and assumptions used

the concept of income in a general equilibrium this paper derives a concept of aggregate real income for a competitive economy in general equilibrium consisting of heterogeneous infinitely lived people and relates it to current and future consumption possibilities an important characteristic of our measure of income which we call real income is that deflation is carried out using a consumption deflator rather than any price index of output we suggest that it may be inappropriate to regard capital gains as income we also present a coherent treatment of the effects of changes to the terms of trade on real income and explain the implications of this for resourceexporting economies hicks 1939 defined income as the maximum amount a man can spend and still be as well off at the end of the week as at the beginning since then there has been a succession of attempts to apply this definition the problem is as hicks acknowledged that the correct interpretation of as well off is by no means clear weitzman 1976 and asheim 1997 suggest that income is equal to the level of consumption which could be sustained indefinitely out of the capitalized value of current income and equate this to being as well off at the end of the week as at the beginning eisner 1988 argues specifically that in a total incomes system effects arising from asset price changes and conventionally regarded as capital gains should be included with income here building on earlier work by sefton and weale 1996 asheim and weitzman 2001 and pemberton and ulph 2001 we provide a comprehensive account of the implications of the idea that as well off should be understood to mean that the present discounted value of current and future utility should be unchanged over the interval considered we work in the context of a general equilibrium taking the prices established in the general equilibrium as given we first look at income from the production side showing that in an economy where prices and the interest rates satisfy an intertemporal efficiency condition income along an equilibrium path can be interpreted as a weighted average of the value of the current and future consumption bundle plus a term adjusting for changes in the nominal price level converting prices to real prices by deflating by the divisia consumption price index removes the need for this adjustment these results are suggestive first they offer a way of defining the income of a household entirely in terms of its consumption possibilities second they indicate that to calculate real income deflation is best carried out using a price index of consumption this is a substantial divergence from current national accounting practice third because we have assumed constant returns there is a trivial aggregation result that aggregate income is equal to the sum of the incomes from the individual sectors

rawlsian intergenerational justice as a markov perfect equilibrium in a resource technology the rawlsian maximin criterion is combined with nonpaternalistic altruistic preferences in a nonrenewable resource technology the maximin programme is shown to be time inconsistent for a subset of initial conditions a solution to this intergenerational conflict is found under a given assumption as a generically unique subgame perfect equilibrium

toward a new welfare economics for sustainability the debate over various definitions of sustainability has for the most part been conducted within the framework of traditional welfare economics discussion has centered on technical issues imbedded within the functional forms of various optimization models especially the coefficient of the elasticity of substitution and the social discount rate two more basic problems are 1 intractable theoretical difficulties within welfare economics call into question the results of traditional models of sustainability regarding intergenerational welfare and 2 equating per capita consumption with welfare contradicts empirical evidence suggesting that the link between happiness and wealth income is relatively weak alternative approaches to measuring well being are being developed and these have great potential to move the sustainability debate forward

genuine savings and sustainability genuine savings gs has emerged as the leading economic indicator of sustainable economic development at the country level it derives from the literatures on weak sustainability wealth accounting and national income accounting we discuss the theoretical underpinnings of gs focusing on the relationship between changes in a nation s extended capital stock and the future path of consumption the indicator has entered widespread use propelled by the world bank s publications despite its varying performance as a predictor for future consumption notwithstanding the extensive body of literature reviewed promising future research avenues are identified

scarcity resource price uncertainty and economic growth over the course of the past decade significant steps have been taken to empirically link indicators of resource scarcity to changes in economic growth this paper extends this previous literature in two ways first rather than concentrating exclusively on energy we focus on the technological change embodied in the prices of an array of complementary natural resource inputs second we investigate using g arch methods the importance of resource price uncertainty as well as resource price levels on aggregate economic growth we find that output growth is significantly influenced by both resource price levels and resource price uncertainty

moviemod an implementable decision support system for prerelease market evaluation of motion pictures in spite of the high financial stakes involved in marketing new motion pictures marketing science models have not been applied to the prerelease market evaluation of motion pictures the motion picture industry poses some unique challenges for example the consumer adoption process for movies is very sensitive to word of mouth interactions which are difficult to measure and predict before the movie has been released in this article we undertake the challenge to develop and implement moviemod a prerelease market evaluation model for the motion picture industry moviemod is designed to generate box office forecasts and to support marketing decisions for a new movie after the movie has been produced or when it is available in a rough cut but before it has been released unlike other forecasting models for motion pictures the calibration of moviemod does not require any actual sales data also the data collection time for a product with a limited lifetime such as a movie should not take too long for moviemod it takes only three hours in a consumer clinic to collect the data needed for the prediction of box office sales and the evaluation of alternative marketing plans the model is based on a behavioral representation of the consumer adoption process for movies as a macroflow process the heart of moviemod is an interactive markov chain model describing the macro flow process according to this model at any point in time with respect to the movie under study a consumer can be found in one of the following behavioral states undecided considerer rejecter positive spreader negative spreader and inactive the progression of consumers through the behavioral states depends on a set of movie specific factors that are related to the marketing mix as well as on a set of more general behavioral factors that characterize the movie going behavior in the population of interest this interactive markov chain model allows us to account for word of mouth interactions among potential adopters and several types of word of mouth spreaders in the population marketing variables that influence the transitions among the states are movie theme acceptability promotion strategy distribution strategy and the movie experience the model is calibrated in a consumer clinic experiment respondents fill out a questionnaire with general items related to their movie going and movie communication behavior they are exposed to different sets of information stimuli they are actually shown the movie and finally they fill outpostmovie evaluations including word of mouth intentions these measures are used to estimate the word of mouth parameters and other behavioral factors as well as the movie specific parameters of the model moviemod produces forecasts of the awareness adoption intention and cumulative penetration for a new movie within the population of interest for a given base marketing plan it also provides diagnostic information on the likely impact of alternative marketing plans on the commercial performance of a new movie we describe two applications of moviemod one is a pilot study conducted without studio cooperation in the united states and the other is a full fledged implementation conducted with cooperation of the movie s distributor and exhibitor in the netherlands the implementations suggest that moviemod produces reasonably accurate forecasts of box office performance more importantly the model offers the opportunity to simulate the effects of alternative marketing plans in the dutch application the effects of extra advertising extra magazine articles extra tv commercials and higher trailer intensity compared to the base marketing plan of the distributor were analyzed we demonstrate the value of these decision support capabilities of moviemod in assisting managers to identify a final plan that resulted in an almost 50 increase in the test movie s revenue performance compared to the marketing plan initially contemplated management implemented this recommended plan which resulted in box office sales that were within 5 of the moviemod prediction moviemod was also tested against several benchmark models and its prediction was better in all cases an evaluation of moviemod jointly by the dutch exhibitor and the distributor showed that both parties were positive about and appreciated its performance as a decision support tool in particular the distributor who has more stakes in the domestic performance of its movies showed a great interest in using moviemod for subsequent evaluations of new movies prior to their release based on such evaluations and the initial validation results moviemod can fruitfully and inexpensively be used to provide researchers and managers with a deeper understanding of the factors that drive audience response to new motion pictures and it can be instrumental in developing other decision support systems that can improve the odds of commercial success of new experiential products

net national product as an indicator of sustainability net national product nnp can potentially serve several objectives among others to measure value added and to be an indicator of welfare in the aftermath of the world commission on environment and development however it also seems important to investigate whether the concept of nnp can serve as an indicator of sustainability my point of departure following hicks 1946 ch 14 is therefore to require that nnp should measure what can be consumed in the present period without reducing future consumption possibilities and in line with this to argue that the nnp should equal the maximum per capita consumption level that can be sustained if sufficiently many facilitating assumptions are made then a concept of nnp that serves as an exact indicator of sustainability can easily be constructed for instance for a closed economy with a constant population a stationary technology and with only one capital good it follows that the present does not reduce future consumption possibilities if and only if it does not decrease the stock of the single capital good hence under the assumption that the one capital good k is identical to the one consumption good x nnp defined as y x k measures the maximal sustainable consumption at time t because then x y is equivalent to k the purpose of this note is to establish that with multiple capital goods it is not in general possible to construct an exact indicator of sustainability on the

internalisation of external costs in the polish power generation sector a partial equilibrium model this paper presents a methodical framework which is the basis for the economic analysis of the mid term planning of development of the polish energy system the description of the partial equilibrium model and its results are demonstrated for different scenarios applied the model predicts the generation investment and pricing of mid term decisions that refer to the polish electricity and heat markets the current structure of the polish energy sector is characterised by interactions between the supply and demand sides of the energy sector the supply side regards possibilities to deliver fuels from domestic and import sources and their conversion through transformation processes public power plants public chp plants industry chp plants and municipal heat plants represent the main producers of energy in poland demand is characterised by the major energy consumers i e industry and construction transport agriculture trade and services individual consumers and export the relationships between the domestic electricity and heat markets are modelled taking into account external costs estimates the volume and structure of energy production electricity and heat prices emissions external costs and social welfare of different scenarios are presented results of the model demonstrate that the internalisation of external costs through the increase in energy prices implies significant improvement in social welfare

national accounts and environmental resources in the paper optimal growth theory is used to derive the appropriate definition of the net national product concept when there are environmental resources and environmental damage to take into account the basic conclusions are that conventional defined np should be corrected by deducting environmental damage and adding the value of the net change of all resources

re thinking economic progress the call for countries to pursue sustainable development and in doing so place the environment at the heart of policy making was established notably in the report of the brundtland commission in 1987 wced 1987 and at the earth summit meeting between world leaders in rio de janeiro in 1992 many national governments have now pledged a commitment to this goal and the transformation of these pledges into policy is a formidable challenge faced by decision makers it also raises fundamental questions regarding the design of indicators needed to construct suitable policy responses and furthermore to monitor progress towards stated goals allied to this is a feeling of dissatisfaction with the way in which economic progress is currently evaluated in particular this unease has found a focus in often trenchant criticism of the perceived emphasis of policymakers on changes in gross domestic product gdp this has led over the past decade to a view that unless the way in which progress is currently evaluated is changed or at least augmented commitments to sustainability or environmental goals will be largely meaningless of particular interest in this respect are proposals for the construction of green alternatives to gdp

the welfare economic theory of green national accounts this paper takes a critical look at the literature on green national accounts the problem studied is to find a linear index of economic variables that responds to perturbations in the same direction as social well being the thesis of a large literature that net national product which is a flow is that index in closed economies is shown in some interpretations to be simply false and in others to suffer from deep estimation problems it is argued that capital depreciation using shadow prices should certainly be included in national accounts but that the right welfare index is a comprehensive measure of wealth defined as the shadow value of an economy s stock of all capital assets it is shown that comprehensive wealth is usable as a criterion for policy evaluation as well as for determining sustainable economic development

a review of the pricing mechanisms for district heating systems heating represents the largest proportion of energy use as supplied to consumers across all end energy uses therefore there is huge potential for energy savings in the heating sector in order to reduce the emission of co2 district heating dh has been considered an efficient environmentally friendly and cost effective method for heating in buildings and is playing an important role in the mitigation of climate change in the interest of fairness and in the highly competitive market the dh companies operate there is a strong need to develop a novel heat pricing mechanism in order to promote sustainable development of dh systems in this paper existing methods and models regarding heat pricing have been reviewed the features of different pricing mechanisms have been analysed including advantages and disadvantages insights into developing an advanced pricing mechanism for dh systems have been offered

measuring sustainable development some empirical evidence for france from eight alternative indicators abstract this paper presents results from a time series analysis of eight measures of development and or sustainability for france the measures chosen are green national net product genuine savings ecological footprint indicator of sustainable economic welfare genuine progress indicator pollution sensitive human development indicator sustainable human development indicator and french dashboard on sustainable development a theoretical description of each index highlights their advantages and drawbacks underlining the fact that no indicator is perfect and no one can give an exhaustive view of sustainable development therefore the analysis of various indicators is necessary to evaluate sustainable development with accuracy empirical results of measures of well being show that french development was improving between 1990 and 2000 concerning sustainability indicators support different conclusions it seems that french development was weakly sustainable but unsustainable in the strong sense over the period examined

endogenous growth with public education abstract we investigate balanced aggregate growth in a model in which new knowledge is produced as an intermediate input and becomes embodied in all workers knowledge is a public input in the public goods sense we examine the institutional arrangement of taxing all labor income to pay for new knowledge production an optimal tax rate is characterized

ecosystem services and regional development an application to sweden this study carries out interregional comparisons of development and sustainable use of natural capital with and without inclusion of non marketed ecosystem services a simple dynamic model of an open economy shows that appropriate adjustment of conventional income accounts includes flow and stock components but excludes explicit entrance of pollution calculations are made for swedish regions and for two types of ecosystem services pollution sequestration and recreational services provided by three types of ecosystems forests agricultural landscape and wetlands when comparing the adjusted and non adjusted regional income accounts it is shown that the two measurements generate significantly different pictures of regional income and growth regions that are traditionally considered as relatively less growth promoting are shown to hold important sources of wealth from natural capital while counties that are rich in conventional accounts fall behind when adjusting for values of changes in natural capital

adjusting green nnp to measure sustainability weitzman provides a foundation for nnp as the stationary equivalent of a wealth maximizing path when there is a constant interest rate and no exogenous technological progress here the implications of weitzman s foundation are explored in a case encountered in resource models i e the case of non constant interest rates in a setting that allows for exogenous technological progress an expression for nnp is obtained that adjusts green nnp for anticipated capital gains and interest rate effects to produce a measure that indicates sustainability this result is important when measuring the relative sustainability of resource rich and resource poor countries i introduction how should net national product nnp be adjusted for the depletion of natural and environmental resources a prerequisite for examining this problem is to decide on an underlying notion of income at the personal level hicks 1946 defines income as the consumption that if kept constant would yield the same present value as a person s actual future receipts since market prices are not influenced by any single person this notion of income equals a person s maximal sustainable consumption at the national level national income can likewise be defined as the consumption that if kept constant would yield the same present value as the actual future consumption path unless the nation is a small open economy faced with given international prices this notion of national income will exceed

implications of endogenous group formation for efficient risk sharing the existing literature on sub game perfect risk sharing suffers from a basic inconsistency while a group of size n is able to coordinate on a risk sharing outcome it is assumed that deviating subgroups cannot i relax this assumption and characterise the optimal contract among all coalition proof history dependent contracts this alters the predictions of the standard dynamic limited commitment model i show that the consumption of constrained agents depends on both the history of shocks and its interaction with the current income of other constrained agents from this i derive a formal test for the presence of endogenous group formation under limited commitment

a general approach to welfare measurement through national income accounting a framework is developed for analyzing national income accounting using a revealed welfare approach that is sufficiently general to cover both the standard discounted utilitarian and maximin criteria as special cases we show that the basic welfare properties of comprehensive national income accounting previously ascribed only to the discounted utilitarian case extend to this more general framework in particular under a wider range of circumstances it holds that real nnp growth or equivalently a positive value of net investments indicates welfare improvement we illustrate the applicability of our approach in the dasgupta heal solow model of capital accumulation and resource depletion

constant utility paths and irreversible global warming this paper shows that the hartwick rule for sustainable utility with depletable resources still applies to the case of the greenhouse effect from fossil fuel carbon emissions although a carbon tax is necessary for sustainable utility it is sufficient that the sum of net energy rents and carbon tax revenues is invested in reproducible capital examination of recent savings rates and energy cost shares suggests that this may be difficult to achieve with current global savings rates jel classification q32

the rise fall and sustainability of capital resource economies in debates about green accounting it is sometimes argued that a positive value of aggregate investments indicates that an economy is developing sustainably asheim 1994 and pezzey 1994 have shown that this is wrong using a version of the well known dasgupta heal economy with one capital and one non renewable resource stock as a counterexample asheim s proof referred to the unproved assumptions that in such an economy a higher rate of time preference induces higher initial consumption and vice versa and that optimal consumption is initially rising and then falling here we show that these assumptions do hold true under certain circumstances thereby also proving some of dasgupta and heal s other conjectures about sustainability

external costs of energy do the answers match the questions looking back at 10 years of externe abstract while the claim for getting prices right is quite popular in conceptual policy papers the implementation of appropriate internalisation strategies is still hampered by a lack of reliable external cost data great expectations were set into the externe project a major research programme launched by the european commission at the beginning of the 1990s to provide a scientific basis for the quantification of energy related externalities and to give guidance supporting the design of internalisation measures after more than a decade of research the externe label became a well recognised standard source for external cost data looking back into the externe history the paper pursues how emerging new scientific insights and changing background assumptions affected external cost estimates and related recommendations to policy over time based on externe results the usefulness and inherent limitations of external cost estimates for impact categories like climate change or nuclear waste disposal is discussed the paper also gives examples on how external costs in spite of remaining uncertainties are successfully used to support environmental policy

evaluating projects and assessing sustainable development in imperfect economies we are interested in three related questions 1 how should accounting prices be estimated 2 how should we evaluate policy change in an imperfect economy 3 how can we check whether intergenerational well being will be sustained along a projected economic programme we do not presume that the economy is convex nor do we assume that the government optimizes on behalf of its citizens we show that the same set of accounting prices should be used both for policy evaluation and for assessing whether or not intergenerational welfare along a given economic path will be sustained we also show that a comprehensive measure of wealth computed in terms of the accounting prices can be used as an index for problems 2 and 3 above the remainder of the paper is concerned with rules for estimating the accounting prices of several specific environmental natural resources transacted in a few well known economic institutions

modeling movie life cycles and market share we examine box office sales in the context of a market share model this is accomplished by developing a combination of a sliding window logit model and a gamma diffusion pattern in a hierarchical bayes framework we show that accounting for the full choice set available every week not only increases the fit of weekly movie sales but also leads to parameter estimates that depict a richer picture of the movie industry we show that movie studios appear to have a good understanding of the products they produce knowing when to support them and when not to we also show that the effect of the number of opening week screens is overestimated in traditional models our research indicates that actors have a direct and directors an indirect effect on consumers movie choice releasing a movie contemporaneously with other movies of the same genre adversely affects box office performance all around releasing a movie against movies of the same motion picture association of america mpaa rating hurts its sales in the beginning but there is a displacement effect which leads to a less severe sales loss in the long run

municipal solid waste management and energy production consideration of external cost through multi objective optimization and its effect on waste to energy solutions abstract energy production from municipal solid waste msw has become one of the most prominent strategies in msw management in this study a multi objective mathematical programming model is developed in order to provide the candidate pareto optimal solutions for a msw management system performing structural design and operational optimization besides the economic criterion the green house gas ghg emissions are taken into account as a second optimization criterion therefore we do not obtain just an optimal solution i e least cost but a set of pareto optimal solutions that spread from minimum cost to minimum ghg emissions each pareto optimal solution provides the corresponding technologies and the capacities that are associated with it an innovative issue is that we incorporate the external costs benefits associated with a atmospheric pollution impacts b impacts on soil and groundwater c impacts on quality of life d electricity use displacement e fertilizer use reduction from compost using the external costs benefits as an additional term in the cost objective significantly affects the results especially regarding the waste to energy options this is clearly illustrated in the case study for the msw management of the athens region in greece

a conceptual exploration and critical inquiry into the theoretical foundation s of economic welfare measures abstract economic welfare measures ewm such as the isew and the gpi are often argued to lack a sound theoretical foundation however we observe that the initial ewm were jointly inspired by hicksian and fisherian income welfare s experiential nature is fisherian inspired whereas seeing the consumption of community capital e g the ecosystem as a cost is hicksian inspired as most scholars do not recognize this double theoretical foundation two distinct welfare interpretations with different time and boundary dimensions are often conflated ewm can be seen as either capturing the benefits and costs experienced or as reflecting the benefits and costs of present economic activities bcpa the former interpretation excludes future costs costs shifted abroad and capital changes as they are not experienced in the present while the latter includes them recent developments reveal that ewm are converging toward the ex post established experiential fisherian foundation formulated by lawn 2003 yet this is not the only way forward as the bcpa view offers an alternative to account for for instance the costs of present activities shifted abroad or to the future whether they are experienced or not to avoid inconsistencies ewm s standardization would greatly benefit from making explicit in future studies which interpretation is taken

accounting for the wealth of nations the net versus gross output controversy and its ramifications there has been a longstanding controversy over the use of net versus gross measures of national product in accounting for economic growth most recently reflected in several papers which have examined the role of environmental variables it is argued in this paper that the two measures are not substitutes but complements which reveal different aspects of the growth process gross product is the correct output concept for estimating the structure of production while net product is the correct concept for measuring the welfare consequences of economic growth an alternative to the conventional solow growth accounting framework is then presented in which the change in national wealth is decomposed into its component elements copyright 1992 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

performance regimes and marketing policy shifts even in mature markets managers are expected to improve their brands performance year after year when successful they can expect to continue executing on an established marketing strategy however when the results are disappointing a change or turnaround strategy may be called for to help performance get back on track in such cases performance diagnostics are needed to identify turnarounds and to quantify the role of marketing policy shifts in this process this paper proposes a framework for such a diagnosis and applies several methods to provide converging evidence for two main findings first contrary to prevailing beliefs the performance of brands in mature markets is not always stable instead brands systematically improve or deteriorate their performance outlook in clearly identifiable time windows that are relatively short compared to windows of stability second these shifts in performance regimes are associated with the brand s marketing actions and policy shifts as opposed to competitive marketing promotion oriented marketing policy shifts are particularly potent in improving a brand s performance outlook

measuringincome and measuring sustainability we examine what interpretation can be given to inclusive income understood to be consumption plus the value of the net increase in all relevant capital stocks we introduce the concept of instantaneously constant value income defined as the maximum amount the economy can consume at a moment of time and keep the expected present value of utility of current and future generations constant we argue that this income concept captures some of the concerns underlying sustainability our main result is that inclusive income equals instantaneously constant value income we show that this result holds in a very general setting and in particular carries over to models incorporating technological progress when such progress can be captured by augmented stocks of knowledge an important implication of our main result is that it provides a very simple method for deriving inclusive income which does not involve any linearization of the hamiltonian

are we consuming too much this paper articulates and applies frameworks for examining whether consumption is excessive we consider two criteria for the possible excessiveness or insufficiency of current consumption one is an intertemporal utility maximization criterion actual current consumption is deemed excessive if it is higher than the level of current consumption on the consumption path that maximizes the present discounted value of utility the other is a sustainability criterion which requires that current consumption be consistent with non declining living standards over time we extend previous theoretical approaches by offering a formula for the sustainability criterion that accounts for population growth and technological change in applying this formula we find that some poor regions of the world are failing to meet the sustainability criterion in these regions genuine wealth per capita is falling as investments in human and manufactured capital are not sufficient to offset the depletion of natural capital

natural resources national accounting and economic depreciation abstract the current value hamiltonian in an aggregate optimal growth problem with heterogeneous capital stocks including exhaustible renewable and environmental stocks is the nnp function routine substitutions reveal that the using up of natural resource stocks is representable as easy to interpret economic depreciation magnitudes we obtain true nnp inclusive of natural resource stock diminution implications for actual national accounting practices are also discussed

maximin viability and sustainability the maximin criterion defines the highest utility level that can be sustained in an intergenerational equity perspective the viability approach makes it possible to characterize all the economic trajectories sustaining a given not necessarily maximal utility level in this paper we exhibit the strong links between maximin and viability we show that the value function of the maximin problem can be obtained in the viability framework and that the maximin path is a particular viable path this result allows us to extend the recommendations of the maximin approach beyond optimality to characterize the sustainability of economic trajectories which differ from the maximin path attention is especially paid to non negative net investment at maximin accounting prices which is shown to be necessary to maintain the productive capacity of the economy whether the development path is optimal or not our results provide a new theoretical ground to account for sustainability in imperfect economies based on maximin prices

capital gains and net national product in open economies it is shown within a given framework that with the world economy following an egalitarian path the aggregate capital gains being positive is equivalent to the interest rate tending to decrease this result is of importance for the concept of net national product in open economies in particular with positive aggregate capital gains an open economy cannot sustain consuming the return on its capital stocks since some part of the return must be used to augment the country s national wealth it is established that a country s share of world wide sustainable consumption equals its share of worldwide wealth

on sustainability and social welfare abstract this paper proposes to define sustainability in terms of leaving it possible for future generations to sustain certain defined targets it is shown that variants of genuine savings and the ecological footprint can then serve as indicators of sustainability the link between sustainability and intergenerational welfare is examined and it is shown how to incorporate indicators of sustainability into a social welfare measure including risk in the analysis

setting quality expectations when entering a market what should the promise be this paper examines optimal advertised quality actual quality and price for a firm entering a market it develops a two period model where advertised quality influences expectations and hence trial and the gap between actual quality and expectations determines satisfaction which in turn impacts second period sales in such situations a company makes a choice between advertising high quality and getting trial but little repeat and advertising low quality and getting low trial but high repeat results are derived by numerical methods as well as analytically for a special case of the model the model suggests it is optimal to overstate quality when i customers rely relatively less on advertising to form quality expectations and ii customers intrinsic satisfaction with a product is high these results are consistent with deceptive advertising cases at the ftc which showed more deception for unknown firms and for firms whose customers were more satisfied they are also consistent with the decisions made by future managers mbas except that the respondents would advertise higher versus lower quality when advertising was effective

national wealth and net national product solow 1986 established that corresponding to constant consumption programs with essential exhaustible resource stocks there was a capital value that was remaining constant he thus obtained a hick s type of result namely that current consumption left capital intact solow was using weitzman 1976 as a point of departure it turns out that there is a quite general solow type of result namely that nnp t is interest on the value of accumulated capital v t where v t can include diminutions in natural resource stocks and the interest rate is the social discount rate a weitzman 1976 result is that nnp t is interest on capital where capital is discounted future optimal consumption the interest rate being the discount rate there is then an attractive duality here forward views of capital discounted future optimal consumption programs at date t coincide with backward views of capital current value of accumulated stocks at date t first we observe the weitzman result as the solved bellman equation in dynamic programming this leads directly to the result that nnp t is interest on the value of accumulated capital next we re work the derivations with an essential exhaustible resource and then with endogenously produced knowledge

demand and supply dynamics for sequentially released products in international markets the case of motion pictures we develop an econometric model to study a setting in which a new product is launched first in its domestic market and only at a later stage in foreign markets and where the product s performance demand and availability supply are highly interdependent over time within and across markets integrating literature on international diffusion success breeds success trends and the theatrical motion picture industry the focus of the empirical analysis we develop a dynamic simultanenous equations model of the drivers and interrelationship of the behavior of consumers audiences and retailers exhibitors our findings emphasize the importance of considering the endogeneity and simultaneity of audience and exhibitor behavior and challenge conventional wisdom on the determinants of box office performance which is predominantly based on modeling frameworks that fail to account for the interdependence of performance and availability specifically we find that variables such as movie attributes and advertising expenditures which are usually assumed to influence audiences directly mostly influence revenuesindirectly namely through their impact on exhibitors screen allocations in addition consistent with the idea that the buzz for a movie is perishable we find that the longer is the time lag between releases the weaker is the relationship between domestic and foreign market performance an effect mostly driven by foreign exhibitors screen allocations

genuine saving and positional externalities much evidence suggests that people are concerned with their relative consumption yet positional externalities have so far been ignored in savings based indicators of sustainable development this

hicksian income from resource extraction in an open economy we derive a measure of national income defined in terms of maximum sustainable per capita consumption if population and interest rates are constant the income generated by natural resource extraction is the return on resource wealth defined as the present value of future resource rents with a growing population or declining interest rate sustainability requires net increases in wealth over time the income from extraction of nonrenewable resources can exceed resource rents contrary to the conclusions of el serafy 1989 and repetto et al 1989 finally we present an example illustrating the hazard of consuming the full increment of hicksian income

sector level decisions in a sustainability constrained economy despite two decades of debate there remains little consensus about what sustainability is and how it should be achieved economists primarily portray sustainability as a macro level concern but there has been less attention on the implications of this social objective for policies related to the management of individual resources this paper derives guidance for sector level planning and project analysis from a macro level norm of intergenerational fairness optimal sustainable management involves making tradeoffs between sectors we derive a criteria for sector level planning and project analysis that help make those tradeoffs without losing site of the sustainability goal

investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption we set out dollar valued net national product for an economy with a wasting essential stock oil deposit we take up maintaining capital intact and locally unchan ging consumption the percentage change in net investment or genuine savings relative to the market rate of interest denotes whether current consumption is rising

genuine saving and the social cost of taxation following the 1987 report by the world commission on environment and development the genuine saving has come to play a key role in the context of sustainable development and the world bank regula