inflation and world equity selection although much has been written about inflation and stock returns in the united states and the united kingdom little is known about the impact of inflation on a broader menu of countries consistent with previous research examining time series of inflation and stock returns in the united states this study of inflation in 41 developed and emerging equity markets documents a significant negative relation for most countries cross sectional analysis however indicates that inflation as a country attribute commands a positive premium this finding suggests that inflation reveals information about risk exposure supporting the risk interpretation the correlation between a country s inflation rate and the oecd rate of inflation is positively related to the country s equity return correlation with world market returns further equity volatility is positively linked to average inflation rates more than 50 percent of the cross sectional variation in average inflation rates can be accounted for by country cr

the effect of technology spillover on co2 emissions embodied in china australia trade abstract co2 emissions embodied in international trade have drawn wide attention in the academia and national climate negotiations in this study we estimate the embodied co2 emissions in the trade between china and australia using long time series disaggregated sectoral data based on missions embodied in bilateral trade eebt method and analyse the major driving forces for these emissions changes based on structural decomposition analysis sda method the results show that export volume contributed to these embodied co2 emissions increase while emission intensity could offset these co2 emissions increase we further predict embodied co2 emission in sino australia trade under different scenarios and the results indicate that technology spillover can significantly reduce embodied co2 emissions in trade electricity transportation and cement industries have significant potential to reduce carbon emissions in addition we evaluate future carbon reduction potential till 2030 the results in this study can inform decision makers for australia and china to formulate energy conservation and emission reduction policies

contracts as a barrier to entry it is shown that an incumbent seller who faces a threat of entry into his or her market will sign long term contracts that prevent the entry of some lower cost producers even though they do not preclude entry completely moreover when a seller possesses superior information about the likelihood of entry it is shown that the length of the contract may act as a signal of the true probability of entry

stock returns inflation and the proxy hypothesis a new look at the data abstract this paper reexamines the proxy hypothesis of fama american economic review 1981 71 545 565 as the main explanation for the negative correlation between stock returns and inflation we look at quarterly data on industrial production growth monetary base growth cpi inflation three month treasury bill rates and returns on the equally weighted nyse portfolio for the 1954 1976 and 1977 1990 periods using time series techniques we find that production growth induces only a weak negative correlation between inflation and stock returns and explains less of the covariance between the two series than inflation and interest rate innovations

the welfare effects of third degree price discrimination in the author examines third degree price discrimination by an upstream monopolist in an intermediate good market discrimination is motivated by the fact that downstream firms differ in their abilities to integrate backward into supply of the input the author shows that under reasonable specifications of equilibrium price discrimination leads to all buyers facing higher input prices in other cases discrimination raises some prices and lowers others the author derives conditions under which discrimination lowers welfare by reducing total output and shows that in some markets discrimination will raise welfare by preventing socially inefficient backward integration copyright 1987 by american economic association

stock market returns and inflation evidence from other countries this paper investigates the relation between common stock returns and inflation in twenty six countries for the postwar period our results do not support the fisher hypothesis which states that real rates of return on common stocks and expected inflation rates are independent and that nominal stock returns vary in one to one correspondence with expected inflation there is a consistent lack of positive relation between stock returns and inflation in most of the countries

on the optimal pricing policy of a monopolist the paper presents a simple explanation of price dispersion by a monopolist assuming only that consumers arrive in a random order and are served on a first come first served basis a firm can sometimes increase its profits by charging two different prices for the same good and rationing sales at the lower price however it is never necessary to charge more than two prices and a single price is sufficient as long as either the marginal revenue curve is everywhere downward sloping or the marginal cost of production is constant

cooperatives as entrants a potential shortcoming of game theoretic models in industrial organization is their failure to consider consumers as players we introduce a customer coalition a cooperative as a potential entrant and compare the cooperative entry threat with that posed by the usualforprofit entrant we identify four fundamental distinctions between cooperative andfor profit entrants and demonstrate that the strategic interplay between a cooperative and an incumbent firm may differ markedly from that between the incumbent and a for profit entrant the results impart a prospectively powerful role to potential cooperatives in beneficially regulating free market performance

an assessment of a proposed ets in australia by using the monash green model abstract using the monash green model and a database containing detailed energy sectors this paper evaluates the effects of a proposed emissions trading scheme on the australian economy and the emissions levels the simulation results indicate that the price of carbon permits has to increase from a 4 1 per tonne in 2015 through a 13 1 per tonne in 2020 to a 41 3 per tonne in 2030 to achieve a target of 28 below the 2005 level in 2030 the main buyers of permits would be the agricultural sector black coal electricity sector and brown coal electricity sector compared to the business as usual scenario australia s gdp is projected to be 0 85 lower in 2020 and 1 6 lower in 2030 household welfare measured in terms of equivalent variations will increase due to compensations provided by the government the results also lend strong support towards the transition to renewable energy the stylised model was adapted to inform the results of the full model

exclusionary pricing when scale matters we consider an incumbent firm and a more efficient entrant both offering a network good to several asymmetric buyers and both being able to price discriminate the good has positive value to buyers only if the network size exceeds a certain threshold the incumbent s installed base guarantees this critical size to the incumbent while the entrant needs to attract enough new buyers to meet this threshold we show that price discrimination in the various forms it may take reduces the set of achievable socially efficient entry equilibria and discuss the policy implications of this result

development of the electricity environmental policy cge model gtap e powers a case of the carbon tax in south africa abstract a new carbon price mechanism with full emission coverage is developed within the framework of a global computable general equilibrium model gtap e powers to enhance the capacity and accuracy for climate change and energy policy assessment the model developed is then used to examine the potential impacts of the carbon tax in south africa results show that incorporation of non co2 emissions in the model significantly alters the results of which the economy of south africa experiences higher costs compared to the case that only has co2 emissions when more sectors are included in the policy it also puts higher costs on the economy as higher levels of emissions are subject to the carbon tax results also show that south africa only experiences small tradeoffs from introducing the carbon tax in all scenarios that is with a tax rate of 9 15 the country is able to reduce its emission levels by 12 25 15 6 at the costs of real gdp reduction by 1 17 1 59 fossil based industrial sectors are particularly worst off while clean and renewable energy sectors strongly expand their production the results indicate that south africa is likely to move to a low carbon and sustainable economy with such a policy

inflation and asset returns sustained inflation is detrimental to long run growth and the financial system a recent theoretical literature suggests that high inflation implies low real returns on assets these low returns exacerbate informational frictions interfering with the functioning of financial markets and the allocation of investment we investigate the plausibility of an inverse relationship between inflation and real returns inflation and nominal equity returns are negatively correlated or uncorrelated for all low to moderate inflation economies examined safe nominal rates of return and inflation are only weakly positively correlated however for high inflation economies inflation and nominal returns are strongly positively correlated

poverty and distributional effects of a carbon tax in mexico abstract mexico recently declared ambitious goals in reducing domestic co2 emissions and introduced a carbon tax in 2014 although negative effects on household welfare and related poverty measures are widely discussed as possible consequences empirical evidence is missing we try to fill this gap by simulating an input output model coupled with household survey data to examine the welfare effects of different carbon tax rates over the income distribution the currently effective tax rate is small and has negligible effects on household welfare higher simulated tax rates maintaining the current tax base show a slight progressivity but welfare losses remain moderate welfare losses regressivity and poverty rise more with widening the tax base towards natural gas and the other greenhouse gases methane ch4 and nitrous oxide n2o mainly through food price increases for a complete analysis of the policy we simulate a redistribution of calculated tax revenues and find that the resulting effects become highly progressive also for high rates wider tax bases and even in the absence of perfect targeting of social welfare programs

the environmental and economic impact of the carbon tax in australia to fulfil its emission reduction target pledged in the copenhagen accord the australian government has determined to introduce a carbon tax from july 1st 2012 this paper simulates the effects on the environment and on the economy of a carbon tax of a 23 per tonne of carbon dioxide proposed by the government with and without a compensation policy we employ a computable general equilibrium model with an environmentally extended social accounting matrix according to the simulation results the carbon tax can cut emissions effectively but will cause a mild economic contraction because the price signal is intact the proposed compensation plan has little impact on emission cuts while significantly mitigating the negative effect of a carbon tax on the economy

impact of an emissions trading scheme on australian households a computable general equilibrium analysis abstract following the international commitment to tackle climate change issues many countries have introduced climate change policies to reduce emission levels australia also expects to follow the international pathways to implement a climate change policy to curb its greenhouse gas emissions in this context the former labor government in australia intended to switch its carbon tax policy to an emissions trading scheme ets after 2 years of its initial operation to achieve an emission target of 5 per cent below the 2000 level by 2020 by employing a computable general equilibrium model and a social accounting matrix database this article analyses the potential impacts of an ets with various revenue recycling options on australian households results show that an emission permit price of a 20 per tonne of co2 e would help australia to achieve the 2020 emission reduction target this permit price is likely to have a small contraction in australia s real gdp i e about 0 3 per cent and in real household consumption i e about 0 19 per cent the price of electricity is projected to increase by 13 per cent the revenue recycling options seem to create an improvement in the macro economy and there is a trade off between economic efficiency and equity in the australian economy with compensations the personal income tax reduction policy results in an economic efficiency with a positive change in real aggregate household consumption whereas providing an equal lump sum transfer brings benefits equally for all household groups increased government transfers based on recipients current pension and allowance rates generate more welfare gains for middle income household groups

price discrimination and social welfare studies the effect of price discrimination on social welfare using methods from duality theory features of the reservation model presented quasi linear utility and consumers surplus upper and lower bounds on welfare change bounds on welfare change with optimal price discrimination from ebsco

carbon taxation in russia prospects for a double dividend and improved energy efficiency russia is not only one of the world s major sources of carbon based energy coal oil and gas but is also one the most intensive users of energy furthermore russia accounts for a disproportionately large share of global carbon dioxide emissions some 5 to 6 of global carbon dioxide emissions eia 2011a it has been estimated world bank 2008 that russia could reduce its use of primary energy use by 45 with consequent economic and environmental benefits high energy and carbon intensity of the russia economy is inter alia explained by low energy prices due to high export taxes as well as administrative regulation of domestic prices of gas and electricity and low environmental taxes carbon taxes are one such pigouvian tax and they would address concerns on several fronts simultaneously in the short to medium term they would inter alia lead to lower ghg emissions and encourage the diffusion of more energy efficient technologies in the longer term the increased cost of energy inputs is expected to induce technological progress in this analysis the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of carbon taxes on the russia economy are examined this analysis addresses the following objectives i to test the double dividend hypothesis under perfect and imperfect competition in output markets to analyse ii the incidence of carbon taxes iii impacts on sectoral competitiveness iv effects on income equity and v interactions of carbon taxes with other taxes a computable single country multi sector comparative static cge model is employed russland verfugt nicht nur uber einen der grosten vorrate an kohlenstoffbasierter energie wie kohle rohol und gas sondern ist auch einer der grosten energieverbraucher daruber hinaus ist russland fur einen uberproportional grosen anteil von kohlendioxid emission etwa 5 bis 6 der weltweiten kohlendioxidemission verantwortlich mit der einfuhrung einer kohlendioxidsteuer konnten gleichzeitig unterschiedliche wirkungen erzielt werden kurz und mittelfristig wurden kohlenstoffsteuern sowohl zu einer reduzierung von treibhausgasemissionen als auch zur einfuhrung von energieeffizienteren technologien fuhren langfristig wird erwartet dass hohe energiekosten den anreiz zur entwicklung und zur investition in energiesparenden technischen fortschritt erhohen die vorliegende arbeit analysiert und bewertet die makrookonomischen und sektoralen auswirkungen einer einfuhrung von kohlenstoffsteuern auf die russische wirtschaft die ziele der arbeit bestehen darin die hypothese der doppelten dividende fur den fall des vollkommenen und des unvollkommenen wettbewerbs auf gutermarkten zu uberprufen und die inzidenz einer kohlenstoffsteuer ihre auswirkungen auf die sektorale wettbewerbsfahigkeit ihre auswirkungen auf die einkommensverteilung und die interaktion von kohlenstoffsteuern mit anderen steuern zu analysieren und zu bewerten als methodischer ansatz wurde ein single country und multi sektor model gewahlt

the impact of an ets on the australian energy sector an integrated cge and electricity modelling approach this paper utilises a new computable general equilibrium cge model which integrates an electricity supply model to gauge the effects of a national emissions trading scheme ets on the australian energy sector and the broader economy the modelling results show that an ets can reduce emissions effectively and with a relatively small impact on the overall economy but the impact of the ets on individual sectors varies wind electricity generation is projected to benefit greatly brown coal electricity and gas electricity are expected to be adversely affected substantially somewhat surprisingly the impact on black coal electricity is negative but relatively small

inflation and real stock returns revisited i introduction this article empirically reinvestigates the relationship between real stock returns and inflation according to fisher 1930 1 in an efficient market real stock returns should reflect expectations only about real factors such as growth in output and time preference of savers such that real stock returns and inflation should vary independently in other words on average investors are fully compensated for erosions in purchasing power over time however this so called generalized fisher hypothesis has received little empirical support while kaul 1990 boudoukh and richardson 1993 solnik and solnik 1997 madsen 2005 and ryan 2006 find positive or weakly positive correlation between stock returns and inflation most empirical studies including nelson 1976 fama 1981 1983 geske and roll 1983 gultekin 1983 kaul 1987 and solnik 1983 uncover a negative effect of inflation anticipated and or unanticipated on real or nominal stock returns these apparent inconsistencies between the data and the predictions of economic theory have been termed as the stock return inflation puzzle and cited as evidence of monetary nonsuperneutrality or irrationality and market inefficiency 2 to reconcile the seemingly conflicting contributions danthine and donaldson 1986 provide a rational expectations equilibrium model in which a negative relation between stock returns and inflation arises from non monetary sources e g a real output shock and a positive relation is driven by purely monetary sources stulz 1986 marshall 1992 and bakshi and chen 1996 also assert that stock returns may be negatively correlated with inflation especially when the source of inflation is related to nonmonetary factors evidently hess and lee 1999 khil and lee 2000 and lee 2003 find that while monetary shocks drive a positive correlation real fiscal or real output shocks result in a negative correlation between stock returns and inflation from a different perspective kaul 1987 1990 argues that the relation between these two variables depends on both the money demand and the money supply specifically while the combination of money demand effects with a countercyclical monetary response accentuates a negative correlation money demand shocks along with a procyclical monetary response lead to a neutral or positive correlation between real stock returns and inflation similar arguments can be found in day 1984 kaul and seyhun 1990 boudoukh richardson and whitelaw 1994 and gallagher and taylor 2002 and are supported by compelling empirical evidence see e g kim 2003 lee 1992 as an alternative this article models the real stock return inflation relationship as intrinsically dynamic explicitly distinguishing between the short run and the long run such a distinction is crucial because imperfect information rigidity and or contractual obligations are more prevalent in the short run than in the long run in that sense the response of real stock returns to inflation could differ in the short run versus long run moreover we assess the long and short run impacts of inflation uncertainty on real stock returns as argued the real costs of inflation are associated with its uncertainty greater inflation uncertainty resulting from higher inflation may lead to economic inefficiency lower real investment and unemployment thereby reducing economic growth thus it is interesting to see if there are independent effects of inflation uncertainty on real stock returns both in the short run and in the long run in so doing this article uses an innovative econometric technique to explore the long and short run relationships between real stock returns and inflation both anticipated and unanticipated and the relationships with inflation uncertainty it departs from earlier work and complements recent evidence in at least three aspects

general equilibrium macroeconomic models of unemployment can they explain the unemployment path in the oecd several theories which seek to explain the high and apparently persistent unemployment in the oecd countries over the past two decades have arisen within the framework of imperfections in the goods and labour markets probably the most prominent theories within this class of models are the general equilibrium models of phelps 1994 layard and nickell 1986 and layard et al 1991 labelled structuralist theories of unemployment by phelps 1994 common to the structuralist theories is that the low frequency movements in unemployment or the nairu are determined by structural variables such as unemployment benefits taxes real interest rates etc however the high frequency movements in unemployment are determined by wage and price surprises and in the layard and nickell 1986 model also by cyclical mark ups employment is entirely determined by the firms willingness to supply and the firms are never sales constrained by contrast the general equilibrium model of sarantis 1993 which is in post keynesian spirit suggests that unemployment on all frequencies is mainly an outcome of demand side factors in this model imperfections in the goods and labour markets are less important determinants of unemployment in this paper i estimate the extent to which the models of phelps 1994 layard and nickell 1986 henceforth l n and sarantis 1993 are able to explain the unemployment path of the oecd countries using annual data over the period 1960 to 1993 the theoretical set up of the models is presented in section 1 and the empirical estimates are set out in section 2

distributional impacts of carbon pricing a general equilibrium approach with micro data for households article i nfo many policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions have at their core efforts to put a price on carbon emissions carbon pricing impacts households both by raising the cost of carbon intensive products and by changing factor prices a complete analysis requires taking both effects into account the impact of carbon pricing is determined by heterogeneity in household spending patterns across income groups as well as heterogeneity in factor income patterns across income groups it is also affected by precise formulation of the policy how is the revenue from carbon pricing distributed as well as the treatment of other government policies e g the treatment of transfer payments what is often neglected in analyses of policy is the heterogeneity of impacts across households even within income or regional groups in this paper we incorporate 15 588 households from the u s consumer and expenditure survey data as individual agents in a comparative static general equilibrium framework these households are represented within the mit usrep model a detailed general equilibrium model of the u s economy in particular we categorize households by full household income factor income as well as transfer income and apply various measures of lifetime income to distinguish households that are temporarily low income e g retired households drawing down their financial assets from permanently low income households we also provide detailed within group distributional measures of burden impacts from various policy scenarios

tradeable carbon permit auctions how and why to auction not grandfather abstract an auction of carbon permits is the best way to achieve domestic carbon caps designed to limit global climate change to minimize administrative costs permits would be required at the level of oil refineries natural gas pipe lines natural gas liquid sellers and coal processing plants to maximize liquidity in secondary markets permits would be fully tradable and bankable the government would conduct quarterly auctions a standard ascending clock auction in which price is gradually raised until there is no excess demand would provide reliable price discovery an auction is preferred to grandfathering giving companies permits based on historical output or emissions because it allows reduced tax distortions provides more flexibility in distribution of costs provides greater incentives for innovation and reduces the need for politically contentious arguments over the allocation of rents

serial correlation and the fixed effects model this paper generalizes the durbin watson type statistics to test the ols residuals from the fixed effects model for serial independence also generalized are the tests proposed by sargan and bhargava for the hypothesis that the residuals form a random walk a method for efficient estimation of the parameters is also developed finally an earnings function is estimated using the michigan survey of income dynamics in order to illustrate the uses of the tests and the estimation procedures developed in this paper

how to set the proper level of carbon tax in the context of chinese construction sector a cge analysis abstract under global warming and severe environmental problems the paris agreement urges china to accelerate the pace of the low carbon economy improving the energy efficiency of the construction sector may be an important way to reduce co2 emissions as a reasonable energy policy instrument a carbon tax can effectively improve energy efficiency and reduce co2 emissions in this study a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is developed to explore the possible impacts of different carbon tax conditions on the energy consumption of the construction sector and the macroeconomy of china results show that the appropriate carbon tax is 60 rmb t which cannot only achieve the emission reduction target but also minimize the negative impact on the macroeconomy however the proper level of the carbon tax varies by building stage under the proper carbon tax level the peak of carbon emissions could be reached in 2025 the main purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical basis for the government in formulating different energy policies

the fisher hypothesis and the interaction between share returns inflation and supply shocks abstract recent tests reject the fisher hypothesis even when expected income growth is accommodated in the estimates this paper suggests that the coefficient of expected inflation is biased downwards when supply shock variables are omitted from standard tests of the fisher hypothesis because they simultaneously affect inflation and real profits using data for 16 oecd countries over the past four decades it is shown that the fisher hypothesis cannot be rejected when supply shock variables are accommodated in the estimates

optimal carbon allowance price in china s carbon emission trading system perspective from the multi sectoral marginal abatement cost abstract china s carbon emission trading system ets was officially launched at the end of 2017 to further promote carbon emissions mitigation in the ets the carbon price is the key factor determining whether the emission reduction target can be achieved the optimal carbon price is the smallest marginal abatement cost that can achieve the emission reduction target this study simulates the marginal abatement cost curves of different sectors in china s ets and calculate the optimal carbon price of sector coverage scenarios based on the criteria that involve eight sectors in turn the results show that the marginal abatement cost decreases with increasing sector involvement the optimal carbon price to achieve the two intensity targets at the same time is between 345 yuan ton and 1140 yuan ton from the sectoral perspective the power sector undertakes the largest emission reduction while the transportation sector is responsible for smaller emission reduction china s ets will cause gdp losses from 1 63 to 2 27 compared with the bau scenario but it can achieve co2 reduction from 9 56 to 10 13

corporate profitability and stock valuation in japan the coexistence of low corporate profitability and high valuations in the japanese stock market is seemingly contradictory the japanese financial system which provided low cost debt and equity capital as a package to major corporations through stable interlocking relationships between large financial institutions and borrowing companies was in fact a hidden key factor for the unprecedented economic success of japan after world war ii as japan s economy successfully completes its catch up phase and enters a mature stage the traditional financial system is becoming more of a liability than an asset for achieving new economic priorities pressures are building to transform the system into one based on purely financial investment emphasizing management efficiency and profitability of borrowing companies how soon and in what form this transformation will take place remains to be seen

customer coalitions monopoly price discrimination and generic entry deterrence abstract this paper analyzes the interplay between a profit maximizing monopolist and a set of consumers who are able to form coalitions that bargain with the monopolist and or integrate into production we show that the monopolist will deter the formation of these countervailing coalitions through strategic selection of generic limit price offers to each consumer these limit prices are derived as subgame perfect equilibria in two alternative models of customer monopoly interplay in both models price discrimination emerges in environments wherein it has previously been considered unprofitable welfare analysis of the equilibria demonstrates the procompetitive effects of potential customer coalitions and generally provides an efficiency based motivation for a government ban on price discrimination

two part pricing with costly arbitrage this paper considers the optimal two part pricing strategy of a monopolist whose customers collude when they purchase the firm s product in contrast to the sentiment in the existing price discrimination literature i find that a monopolist s profit can actually increase when consumers share its good when transaction costs for collusion are zero the firm can extract the full consumer surplus through two part prices when transaction costs are positive or there are a substantial number of consumers without access to resale the firm may be hurt by arbitrage

inflation s negative effects on real stock prices new evidence and a test of the proxy effect hypothesis the present study examines the effects of inflation on real stock prices using an error correction model of the s p 500 inflation is shown to have a negative and significant impact in a variety of model specifications the study also investigates whether the observed negative relation arises because inflation proxies for more fundamental relations between stock prices and either future output relative price uncertainty or inflation uncertainty the evidence reveals that inflation does not merely proxy for those other factors and thus the proxy effect hypothesis in its various forms is rejected

the environmental and economic impact of the emissions trading scheme ets in vietnam abstract this study aims to fill a gap in the literature by examining the impacts of an emissions trading scheme ets in vietnam as the policy has been discussed for a decade in the country but the likely impacts on the economy and different sectors are still unidentified the simulations are carried out in a global energy computable general equilibrium cge model an extension of the gtap e model which treats vietnam as a country region results show that restricting the number of industrial sectors in the emissions trading market substantially affects the country s economy with a decline in real gdp by 4 57 however the country experiences much smaller adverse impacts e g real gdp declines by 1 78 when all industries participate in the emissions trading market in either case of the ets design the coal mining manufacturing transportation and electricity sectors are highly adversely affected however the crude oil and natural gas extraction sectors would experience expansion in their production levels due to substitutions for coal in general under the policy the emission levels from burning fossil fuels decline at significant rates particularly from the electricity generation sector

the most favored nation pricing policy and negotiated prices previous work has viewed the most favored nation mfn contract as a practice capable of facilitating collusion among sellers but this paper shows that even a monopoly seller may gain by including the mfn provision in sales contracts we consider a case in which the seller negotiates price separately with each of two buyers by including a mfn clause in her contract with the first buyer the seller raises her cost of granting price concessions to the second buyer this increases the seller s bargaining strength with respect to the second buyer thereby helping her negotiate a higher price

aviation and the eu emissions trading scheme lessons learned from previous emissions trading schemes designing an emissions trading scheme requires in depth knowledge regarding several aspects this paper attempts to clarify some important design points of the forthcoming emissions trading scheme

china s income gap and inequality under clean energy transformation a cge model assessment abstract to achieve nationally determined contribution ndc targets china has developed a series of low carbon development plans among them the clean energy transformation is very crucial this study evaluates the impact of a set of policies including the development of renewable energy upgrading heavy industry and energy efficiency improvement on china s income gap between 2012 and 2050 a dynamic computable general equilibrium cge model with detailed representations of economic activity an upgraded labor market and disaggregated labor types based on statistical and survey data is used our research provides support for the necessity of low carbon policies to achieve ndc targets results show some key findings first low carbon policies have the greatest impact on employment across all energy industries with negative impacts in most traditional energy sectors and positive impacts in most renewable power sectors second labor will continue to migrate from rural to urban areas with the transformation of the economic structure and the urbanization rate will further increase reaching a maximum of around 70 the reduction of the rural population will bring new opportunities for the modernization of agriculture increasing the income of rural residents and realizing the equitable development between urban and rural areas third the income gap among urban residents will widen due to the different level of labor demand for employees with different education levels

the welfare effects and the distributive impact of carbon taxation on italian households in this work the welfare effects and the distributive impact on italian households of the italian carbon tax are calculated the carbon tax has been introduced in italy at the beginning of 1999 asking for smooth increases over a number of years in the prices of most fossil fuels its welfare effects have been calculated using true cost of living index numbers and the compensating variation the parameters have been obtained through estimation of a complete almost ideal demand system using households data from 1985 to 1996 the welfare loss turns out to be quite substantial and affects italian households in a non negligible way but the distribution of welfare losses across different levels of total monthly expenditures does not allow sustaining the regressivity of carbon taxation as the effect becomes bigger as we move up the income distribution this evidence might encourage the use of carbon taxes at least in the transport sector as cost effective instruments of environmental policy especially after the ratification of the kyoto protocol on climate change