inefficient credit booms this paper studies the welfare properties of competitive equilibria in an economy with financial frictions hit by aggregate shocks in particular it shows that competitive financial contracts can result in excessive borrowing ex ante and excessive volatility ex post even though from a first best perspective the equilibrium always displays under borrowing from a second best point of view excessive borrowing can arise the inefficiency is due to the combination of limited commitment in financial contracts and the fact that asset prices are determined in a spot market this generates a pecuniary externality that is not internalized in private contracts the model provides a framework to evaluate preventive policies which can be used during a credit boom to reduce the expected costs of a financial crisis copyright 2008 wiley blackwell

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

marketization and perceptions of social protection in china s cities summary one of the major challenges for china s ongoing economic reforms is how best to handle the social protection needs of its citizens in the face of mounting insecurities resulting from the marketization process we first argue that china has adopted a middle road in its approach to balancing marketization and stability we then proceed to draw on a large survey of people living in china s cities to examine how successful china s middle road has been perceived to be through the eyes of its urban populace our findings support the view that the market and state are complements and that fostering sustained economic growth requires sound social protection arrangements

safe assets as commodity money this paper presents a model in which safe assets are systemic because they are the medium of exchange in risky assets it connects the literature from banking and finance on safe assets to the monetary literature on alternative monetary systems involving commodity money interest bearing money and private money creation because safe assets have intrinsic value changes in their supply lead to changes in market efficiency additionally because safe assets are costly to produce there is overproduction of safe assets relative to the social optimum when the model is calibrated to plausible liquidity premiums the resulting inefficiencies are not large

marketed surplus under risk do peasants agree with sandmo using a newly defined notion of aversion to income risk the behavior of the marketed surplus producer under price risk is characterized unlike the familiar case first examined by sandmo output depends on both ordinal preferences for goods and on risk attitudes conditions are found that yield an output level under risk that is smaller than under certainty if these conditions do not hold both risk and risk aversion may have a positive effect on output implications for econometric studies of risk attitudes are considered and illustrated with an example finally we examine the effect of uncertainty on the peasant s long run equilibrium

welfare states in hard times welfare states have been subject to a host of conflicting pressures from high unemployment rising income inequality population aging tax competition rising budget deficits and debts slow growth and fears that economic dynamism was being stifled by excessive taxes and benefit levels nevertheless total spending on welfare has edged up in many countries and cuts in rates of benefit have generally been fairly modest the generosity of the welfare state has an enormous influence on poverty and income inequality and still appears to be popular in most of europe suggestions that society would benefit from reduced working time must reckon with the fact that it is paid work which generates the tax revenue required to fund welfare spending

is globalisation undermining the welfare state this paper analyses the evolution of the welfare states in the majority of oecd countries during the pre globalisation 1946 80 and globalisation 1980 2000 periods our purpose is to find out whether globalisation has produced a convergence towards a smaller welfare state funded increasingly by non mobile factors such as labour property and consumption rather than by mobile factors such as capital the data presented here challenge the claims about such a convergence showing that social public expenditures and public employment have continued to expand during the globalisation period in most oecd countries we also show that the welfare states remain rooted in the political traditions that have governed them copyright 2004 oxford university press

a simple model of endogenous agricultural commodity price fluctuations with storage a debate has been raging for centuries regarding the effects of interannual storage on commodity prices most analysts consider storage to function as a price stabilizer while others place it at the core of an explanation of intriguing features of commodity price series such as skewed distributions most studies have been developed in the context of the theory of competitive storage where random shocks affect supply or demand recently the endogenous chaotic behavior of markets has become another possible hypothesis regarding the origin of commodity price fluctuations we develop a nonlinear cobweb model with intra and interannual storage risk averse agents and adaptive expectations like the theory of competitive storage this nonlinear cobweb model with storage can reproduce some of the stylized facts of agricultural commodity prices autocorrelation of first rank low kurtosis and skewness in addition the effects of storage on price variation are mixed in the presence of interannual storage chaotic price series show less variation compared to a situation without interannual storage but we find that storage contributes to the endogenous volatility of prices by making chaotic dynamics more likely

how far down the path to free trade the importance of rice price stabilization in developing asia abstract international trade agreements are pushing the world in the direction of free trade but price stabilization which is inconsistent with completely free trade remains important in developing asia because of the large share of rice in economic output a policy of pure price stabilization for rice without consistent protection either subsidization or taxation can help to create the macroeconomic stability that is essential for sustained rapid economic growth by increasing the quantity and efficiency of investment throughout the economy pure price stabilization can also generate significant equity gains by protecting poor consumers and farmers from sharp fluctuations in prices while domestic commodity price stabilization schemes have a checkered history around the world the experience of asian countries in stabilizing rice prices offers more scope for optimism asian governments have been generally successful in stabilizing rice prices and there are several instances where this has been accomplished without sustained protection of either consumers or farmers however there is room for improved stabilization mechanisms that would lower the costs of intervention

from cash in the market pricing to financial fragility we review some recent research that explores the relationship between asset price volatility and financial fragility when markets and contracts are incomplete jel e5 g2

the value of ideal contingency markets in agriculture an incomplete markets equilibrium in which no contingency markets are available is compared to a complete markets equilibrium formed by introducing a futures market and a crop insurance market the two regimes are compared using comparative static and welfare analyses numerical examples highlight important characteristics of the model and illustrate how the effects of introducing contingency markets can be quantified the main conclusions are that contingency markets in agriculture increase economic efficiency but there is no guarantee that farmers and consumers both benefit it is found that futures and crop insurance markets may reduce farmer welfare when the demand for farm products is price inelastic

global food balances and food security abstract the major structural imbalance in the current global food scene surpluses in developed countries and deficits in developing countries offers opportunity for substantial progress in assuring food security in both the long and the short run to avail of this opportunity requires an understanding of the close connection between food supplies and purchasing power to purchase food massive investment in rural infrastructure is a major component of long term food security since infrastructure is efficiently produced by labor intensive processes food as a wage good is an important input and the global economy would appear to be under using it from an efficiency point of view in the short run food for work offers opportunity for immediate increase in food security as do food subsidy programs it is essential that a large complex of institutions be developed if the current global scene is to result in increased food security it will take time to develop those structures even though food is available now

food policy food aid and structural adjustment programmes the context of agricultural development abstract there are two troubling aspects to structural adjustment programmes currently underway in developing countries first in the urgency to achieve short term objectives adjustment programmes often neglect long term concerns of sustained growth second the immediate impact of adjustments can lead to a deterioration in the income and nutritional status of the poor this article emphasizes the need for structural adjustment programmes that help set the stage for renewed economic growth and are sensitive to the well being of the poor it recommends a strategy of agricultural development to return developing countries to their comparative advantage in the production of labour intensive goods and to encourage overall growth furthermore it argues for the use of food aid to support that strategy and as a means to protect the poor from the hardships inflicted by adjustment programmes

the financialization of food commodity equity and cross commodity return co movements rose dramatically after the 2008 financial crisis this development took place following what has been dubbed the financialization of commodity markets

grain price stabilization in india evaluation of policy alternatives abstract stabilization of prices is an important element of food policy in india as in most other countries both developing and developed however since the magnitude of grain stocks held for this purpose as well as the costs of physical storage have become prohibitively high there is now a need for finding cost effective alternatives including non interventionist and market oriented methods for price stabilization in this paper we consider the case of rice and wheat which are staple foodgrains in india we make a comparison between alternative price stabilization policies including that of holding buffer stocks in terms of their impact on domestic price stability producer and consumer welfare and government costs a multi market equilibrium framework is used where private storage consumption supply and prices of rice and wheat are determined simultaneously indian exports and imports are assumed to affect world prices the alternative price stabilizing mechanisms are ranked according to both the criteria welfare and price stability achieved the main findings are as follows the ranking of alternatives varies with the criterion used greater price stability need not necessarily imply greater welfare the option of variable levies on private external trade turns out to be the most inexpensive and that of domestic buffer stocks the costliest in achieving price stability further the efficacy of buffer stocks and subsidy to private storage in stabilizing prices is lower under free trade as compared to the case where the economy is closed to private external trade

integration and the structure of public spending he voluminous tax competition literature suggests that increased economic integration leads to reduced tax rates and suboptimal levels of government spending as countries compete for mobile factors of production integration may influence not only the size of the government but also the structure of public spending comprehensive studies analyzing the effect of integration on the overall structure of government spending are rare however this article fills this void by providing an empirical analysis of the effects of economic integration on the overall structure of public spending in a number of organisation for economic co operation and development countries using panel data on the different government spending components for the period 1970 to 2002 the authors find that integration negatively influences government consumption and investment but that there is no empirical evidence that transfers are positively or negatively affected by integration as suggested by the compensation and efficiency views respectively less

optimal intertemporal consumption decisions under the threat of starvation abstract this paper studies consumption and saving decisions over time in a life cycle model in which survival from one period to the next is endogenous survival probabilities depend on health which is a capital stock subject to depreciation and which can be augmented by consumption nutrition borrowing is ruled out in our model and we investigate optimal consumption decisions when income fluctuates at seasonal frequencies and when income follows a stochastic process among other results we show that understanding the pattern of income is necessary for understanding consumption decisions when survival is probabilistic and endogenous

prices credit markets and child growth in low income rural areas in this paper it is argued that fluctuations in child growth in rural areas of bangladesh during and after severe floods in i988 can provide insight into the structure of credit markets a model of intertemporal resource allocation is developed and euler equations relating growth patterns of children to the cost of borrowing by household are then derived from the model the evidence indicates that although some of the variation in growth patterns over the relevant period may be attributed to variation in illness and the price of rice growth patterns for children in landless households were influenced by credit market imperfections this paper links two prominent strands of research in economic development the first strand examines the extent to which households in poor rural economies are able to protect themselves from the adverse weather and other shocks that importantly influence earnings in underdeveloped areas while it has long been thought that credit market imperfections and other forms of market failure make it difficult for poor individuals in these economies to smooth consumption both within and across years there remains some question about the magnitude and pervasiveness of these imperfections while there is evidence that fluctuations in economic conditions result in inefficient allocation of resources e g morduch 1990 rosenzweig and wolpin i993 some recent papers have emphasised the fact that consumption patterns of households in the same village comove in a manner consistent with the idea that a substantial fraction of idiosyncratic variation in income is effectively

the evolution of a financial crisis collapse of the asset backed commercial paper market this paper documents runs on asset backed commercial paper abcp programs in 2007 we find that one third of programs experienced a run within weeks of the onset of the abcp crisis and that runs as well as yields and maturities for new issues were related to program level and macro financial risks these findings are consistent with the asymmetric information framework used to explain banking panics have implications for commercial paper investors degree of risk intolerance and inform empirical predictions of recent papers on dynamic coordination failures

flight to liquidity and the great recession abstract this paper argues that counter cyclical liquidity hoarding by financial intermediaries may strongly amplify business cycles it develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which banks operate subject to agency problems and funding liquidity risk in their intermediation activity importantly the amount of liquidity reserves held in the financial sector is determined endogenously balance sheet constraints force banks to trade off insurance against funding outflows with loan scale a financial crisis simulated as an abrupt decline in the collateral value of bank assets triggers a flight to liquidity which strongly amplifies the initial shock and induces credit crunch dynamics sharing key features with the great recession the paper thus develops a new balance sheet channel of shock transmission that works through the composition of banks asset portfolios

the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the distribution of household welfare and poverty in rural kenya1 this study estimates the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the welfare of a sample of rural kenyan households the usual first order welfare approximation formula is extended to a second order formula that allows for supply and demand responses to the price change results show that many rural households are not affected greatly by the price change and there are about as many gainers as losers however these full sample results mask important differences across regions welfare gains generally take place in major production areas while losses are in areas where most households are net buyers of maize semiparametric methods are used to investigate the relationship between income and the size of the welfare effect and poverty dominance techniques are applied to study the impacts of the maize price increase on rural poverty

the macro dimensions of food security economic growth equitable distribution and food price stability abstract rather than asking how to cope with hunger and famine the question might be how to escape their threat altogether important in this regard is recognizing that agriculture and the rural economy are greatly influenced by policies and outcomes in the rest of the economy strategies include economic growth with unchanging income distribution and growth with redistribution the latter encourages balanced growth to create non farm employment opportunities while investing in rural infrastructure

asset smoothing consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints abstract a growing literature asks whether low wealth agents can accumulate assets over time or whether they are trapped in poverty this paper develops a stochastic dynamic programming model with endogenous asset price risk to explore savings and portfolio decisions in a resource poor environment characterized by risk and subsistence constraints optimal portfolio strategies are found to bifurcate despite divisible assets and fully rational agents wealthier agents acquire a higher yielding portfolio and pursue conventional consumption smoothing poorer agents acquire a less remunerative portfolio and pursue asset smoothing rather than consumption smoothing asset based risk coping thus results in positive correlation between initial wealth and portfolio rate of return

the safe asset share we document that the percentage of all u s assets that are safe has remained stable at about 33 percent since 1952 this stable ratio is a rare example of calm in a rapidly changing financial world over the same time period the ratio of u s assets to gdp has increased by a factor of 2 5 and the main supplier of safe financial debt has shifted from commercial banks to the shadow banking system we analyze this pattern of stylized facts and offer some tentative conclusions about the composition of the safe asset share and its role within the overall economy

financial intermediaries and liquidity creation trading losses associated with information asymmetries can be mitigated by designing securities which split the cash flows of underlying assets these securities which can arise endogenously have values that do not depend on the information known only to informed agents bank debt deposits is an example of this type of liquid security which protect relatively uninformed agents and we provide a rationale for deposit insurance in this content high grade corporate debt and government bonds are other examples implying that a money market mutual fund based payments system may be an alternative to one based on insured bank deposits

why sweden s welfare state needed reform according to professor walter korpi the swedish economy would be in better shape if leading politicians had paid less attention to the advice from an influential group of swedish academic economists allegedly hostile to the welfare state their claim that high taxes and extensive social security programmes have strong adverse effects on aggregate economic performance rested on a politically biased reading of comparative international data in purporting to show that sweden had fallen behind other comparable countries the sclerosis diagnosis they set the stage for cutbacks in the welfare state and a major tax reform involving substantially lower marginal tax rates apart from creating inequality at a negligible gain in efficiency the very same reforms may also explain why sweden ran into a macroeconomic tailspin in the early i 990s rather than an instructive case study of the ultimate consequences of a long term obsession with income equality and social protection the exceptional economic crisis can be traced to severe macroeconomic policy blunders the views of professor korpi are quite familiar for anyone that has followed the swedish debate over the last decade supporters of the welfare state applaud professor korpi for revealing the ideological bias underlying the evidence presented in support of the sclerosis diagnosis some swedish economists rather thank of him as a modern day don quixote eager to pick a fight with imaginary villains being a swede and a professor of economics i can hardly claim the status of an impartial observer i certainly believe that harberger triangles convey information and i am convinced that most of the recently implemented reforms make sense nevertheless i believe that professor korpi raises important issues many of the accusations made against the welfare state in sweden and elsewhere rest on evidence which does not survive normal academic scrutiny in their capacity as policy advisors academic economists far from always live up to the standards of the seminar room speculation and sweeping generalisations are poor substitutes for facts and empirical investigations like professor korpi i doubt that very important insights on the harmfulness of the welfare state can be gained from comparative aggregate data over the period i970 90 swedish economic growth was below the oecd average at the same time the public sector was very large however

liquidity and asset market dynamics this study analyzes economies with an essential role for liquid assets in the exchange process the model can generate multiple stationary equilibria across which asset prices market participation capitalization output and welfare are positively related it can also generate a variety of nonstationary equilibria even when fundamentals are deterministic and time invariant including periodic chaotic and stochastic sunspot equilibria with recurrent market crashes some equilibria have asset price trajectories that resemble bubbles growing and bursting endogenous private and public liquidity is also introduced sometimes it is efficient to provide enough liquid assets to satiate demand other times it is not

consumption insurance an evaluation of risk bearing systems in low income economies the hypothesis of full risk sharing can be taken to data from low income countries and evaluate formal and informal financial systems in many contexts idiosyncratic risks are high so credit insurance arrangements could be beneficial statistical tests reveal that households in southern india take advantage of these possibilities villages in cote d ivoire and countries in thailand do not do as well the paper includes an empirical description of the devices used to smooth consumption and a theoretical discussion of private information and incentives on ideal operating systems the full information and mechanism design frameworks provide benchmarks for policy analysis

producer attitudes toward output price risk experimental evidence from the lab and from the field a number of agricultural and food policy instruments are predicated on the idea that producers dislike output price risk we test experimentally some theoretical predictions about the behavior of producers in the face of output price risk namely sandmo s 1971 prediction that price risk at the extensive margin causes risk averse producers to decrease how much they produce and batra and ullah s 1974 prediction that price risk at the intensive margin causes producers whose preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion to further decrease how much they produce we do so in labs with us college students as well as in the field with peruvian farmers first as regards price risk at the extensive margin we find no support for sandmo s prediction second consistent with batra and ullah s prediction we find that output decreases in response to price risk at the intensive margin when imposing a linear relationship between output and price risk when relaxing the assumption of linearity between output and price risk however we find a nonmonotonic relationship between output and price risk taken together these results are broadly inconsistent with expected utility theory alternative models of behavior in the face of risk such as prospect theory may explain the behavior we observe

asset prices liquidity and monetary policy in an exchange economy i formulate a model in which money coexists with equity shares on a risky aggregate endowment agents can use equity as a means of payment so shocks to equity prices translate into aggregate liquidity shocks that disrupt the mechanism of exchange i characterize a family of optimal monetary policies and find that the resulting equity prices are independent of monetary considerations i also study a perturbation of the family of optimal policies that targets a positive constant nominal interest rate and find that in this case the real equity return includes a liquidity return that depends on monetary considerations

on money as a medium of exchange we analyze economies in which individuals specialize in consumption and production and meet randomly over time in a way that implies that trade must be bilateral and quid pro quo nash equilibria in trading strategies are characterized certain goods emerge endogenously as media of exchange or commodity money depending both on their intrinsic properties and on extrinsic beliefs there are also equilibria with genuine fiat currency circulating as the general medium of exchange we find that equilibria are not generally pareto optimal and that introducing fiat currency into a commodity money economy may unambiguously improve welfare velocity acceptability and liquidity are discussed

the effects of the food reserve agency on maize market prices in zambia over the last decade governments throughout eastern and southern africa have increasingly used strategic reserves and or marketing boards to influence grain market outcomes yet little is known about how these activities are affecting grain markets this article estimates the effects of the food reserve agency fra on maize market prices in production and consumption regions in zambia using a vector autoregression model and monthly data from july 1996 through december 2008 in recent years fra has become the dominant buyer of smallholder maize in zambia simulations show that fra activities stabilized market prices throughout the july 1996 december 2008 study period and raised mean prices between july 2003 and december 2008 by 17 19 the price raising effects of fra policies have assisted surplus maize producers but adversely affected net buyers of maize in zambia namely urban consumers and the majority of the rural poor the increase in maize price stability is unlikely to have had substantial welfare effects on poor households in contrast relatively wealthy producers are likely to have benefited from the higher average and more stable maize prices resulting from fra policies

the microeconomics of the developmental paradox on the political economy of food price policy abstract a longstanding puzzle in comparative economics is the developmental paradox the tendency for government support for agriculture to increase with national income and to decrease with the proportion of economic activity and of the population in agriculture this paper offers a microeconomic explanation for that puzzle it establishes analytically the microeconomic basis for coalition alignments with respect to food price policy then numerically simulates the comparative static effects of alternative food policies on coalition structure a parsimonious household model applied to a heterogeneously endowed society demonstrates how variation in individual welfare effects might beget distinct coalitions in the debate over food price policy and how those policies are inextricably linked to land population and technology policies in food agriculture moreover coalition alignments on particular policy debates are path dependent in particular food price policy creates its own political support

on the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries abstract conventional welfare measures of the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries are extended to allow for both economic growth and food security effects the analysis reveals that growth and food security effects may dominate more conventional welfare costs of food price fluctuations although estimating the empirical magnitude of the effects is hampered by the lack of consensus on the extent to which food price fluctuations actually reduce economic growth and food security even if the welfare costs of food price fluctuations are high there are many challenges to the design and successful implementation of price stabilization schemes

does europe need neoliberal reforms this paper examines the neoliberal claim that the only way to achieve sustainable growth and full employment is to abandon keynesian macroeconomic management and the welfare state and bring back flexible labour market policies it summarises the conditions required for neoliberal policies to produce such an outcome and their relevance to contemporary economic social and political realities this is followed by an empirical comparison of the economic performance and social well being of seven advanced economies widely regarded as leading proponents of the three models of capitalism liberal corporatist and social democratic contrary to the claim the model that performs best is the one that has least in common with the neoliberal economic orthodoxy a conclusion that is likely to be of particular relevance in the present century

pecuniary externalities in economies with financial frictions this article characterizes the efficiency properties of competitive economies with financial constraints in which phenomena such as fire sales and financial amplification may arise we show that financial constraints lead to two distinct types of pecuniary externalities distributive externalities that arise from incomplete insurance markets and collateral externalities that arise from price dependent financial constraints for both types of externalities we identify three sufficient statistics that determine optimal taxes on financing and investment decisions to implement constrained efficient allocations we also show that fire sales and financial amplification are neither necessary nor sufficient to generate inefficient pecuniary externalities we demonstrate how to employ our framework in a number of applications whereas collateral externalities generally lead to over borrowing the distortions from distributive externalities may easily flip sign leading to either under or over borrowing both types of externalities may lead to under or over investment

externalities in economies with imperfect information and incomplete markets this paper presents a simple general framework for analyzing externalities in economies with incomplete markets and imperfect infonnation by identifying the pecuniary effects of these externalities that net out the paper simplifies the problem of determining when tax interventions are pareto improving the approach indicates that such tax interventions almost always exist and that equilibria in situations of imperfect information are rarely constrained pareto optima it can also lead to simple tests based on readily observable indicators of the efficacy of particular tax policies in situations involving adverse selection signaling moral hazard incomplete contingent claims markets and queue rationing equilibria traditional discussions of externalities have emphasized the distinction between technological externalities in which the action of one individual or firm directly affects the utility or profit ofanother and pecuniary externalities in which one individual s or firm s actions affect another only through effects on prices while the presence of technological externalities imply in general that a competitive equilibrium may not be pareto efficient pecuniary externalities hy themselves are not a source of inefficiency the fact that prices change has of course important consequences there are both distributional and allocational effects but the distribution effects net out gains for example hy firms whose prices increase are precisely offset by losses e g to individuals who must pay higher prices and there are no welfare losses from the allocation effects as long as the price changes involved are small if firms are maximizing profits and individuals are maximizing utility both facing prices that correctly refiect opportunity costs then standard envelope theorem arguments imply that changes in profits or utility induced by changes in allocations resulting from any small change in prices are negligible

on price risk and the inverse farm size productivity relationship abstract the oft observed inverse relationship between farm size and productivity has elicited several explanations having important policy and theoretical implications using advances in the analysis of price risk effects on producer behavior and a simple two period model of an agricultural household that both produces and consumes under price uncertainty at the time labor allocation decisions are made this paper demonstrates analytically that a non degenerate land distribution and price risk can together produce an inverse relationship even absent any of the more common explanations empirical evidence from madagascar confirms the plausibility of this intuitive explanation for the phenomenon

consumer s surplus and welfare change in a simple dynamic model la somme escomptee d equivalents instantanes ou les variations compensees n est jamais un indicateur du bien etre economique exact pour un consommateur dont les preferences sont representees par une fonction utilite inter temporelle croissant

rice price stabilization and food security in bangladesh abstract the paper reviews the rationale of price stabilization establishes the importance of price stabilization for food security examines the nature and extent of fluctuations in rice prices and develops an approach to stabilize rice prices in bangladesh it shows that the extent of annual price variability has increased somewhat in the post technology 1976 1984 period compared to pre technology period 1960 1970 seasonal pattern of prices has also changed with sharper troughs in september and peak in may in the 1976 1984 period the paper argues that the theoretical positions against price stabilization are not valid in the context of rice price in bangladesh a framework for stabilization of rice prices that integrates public procurement import rationing and open market operations is developed in order to contain annual and seasonal prices within desired price bands

monetary policy as financial stability regulation this paper develops a model that speaks to the goals and methods of financialstability policies there are three main points first from a normative perspective the model defines the fundamental market failure to be addressed namely that unregulated private money creation can lead to an externality in which intermediaries issue too much short term debt and leave the system excessively vulnerable to costly financial crises second it shows how in a simple economy where commercial banks are the only lenders conventional monetary policy tools such as open market operations can be used to regulate this externality while in more advanced economies it may be helpful to supplement monetary policy with other measures third from a positive perspective the model provides an account of how monetary policy can influence bank lending and real activity even in a world where prices adjust frictionlessly and there are other transactions media besides bank created money that are outside the control of the central bank

towards greater food security for india s poor balancing government intervention and private competition to achieve its strategic objective of food security the government of india goi maintains an elaborate set of food grain policies which include public procurement and price support operations price stabilisation through buffer stocks public food grain distribution and extensive controls on private trade we use aggregate and household level evidence to show that this system is costly generates inefficiencies in the food grain marketing system for both the public and the private sector and often offers few if any benefits to its intended beneficiaries the poor on this basis we propose an integrated reform agenda involving improvements in the targeting of the public distribution system creation of an enabling environment for increased private participation in food grain markets and greater incentives for efficiency by the food corporation of india fci

a new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth abstract this paper is concerned with the effects of export instability on investment and growth it is shown that past cross sectional empirical studies on the effects of export instability either in prices or in value terms used an incorrect measure of instability that does not properly take account of the share of exports in gdp using a new instability index and a broad set of conditioning variables it is shown that export instability was positively associated with investment but negatively associated with growth in a large sample of countries during the period from the early 1970s to the mid 1980s

international and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises abstract we build a model of emerging markets crises which features two types of collateral constraints firms in a domestic economy have limited borrowing capacity from international investors they also have limited borrowing capacity with respect to each other we study how the presence and changes in these collateral constraints affect financial and real variables a binding international constraint in the aggregate leads to a sharp rise in interest rates and fire sales of domestic assets while limited domestic collateral can lead to wasted international collateral these two collateral constraints can interact in important ways the first is disintermediation a fire sale of domestic assets causes banks to fail in their function of reallocating resources across the economy leading to wasted international collateral the second is a dynamic effect we show that firms in an economy with limited domestic collateral and a binding international collateral constraint will not adequately precaution against adverse shocks increasing the severity of these shocks

the swedish experiment the deterioration of the economic performance in sweden from about 1970 was to some extent the result of a number of exogenous shocks and unnecessary policy mistakes it was however also related to basic changes in the economic and social system in sweden in the late 1960s and early 1970 when government spending taxes and regulations started to expand dramatically it is also argued in the paper that problematic political economic and social mechanisms had become embedded in the long term dynamics of the system itself these various experiences are the background for recent reforms and retreats of the swedish experiment

liquidity and inefficient investment we study the role of fiscal policy in a complete markets model where the only friction is the nonpledgeability of human capital we show that the competitive equilibrium is constrained inefficient leading to too little risky investment we also show that fiscal policy following a large negative shock can increase ex ante welfare finally we show that if the government cannot commit to the promised level of fiscal intervention the ex post optimal fiscal policy will be too small from an ex ante perspective

survival versus consumption we develop an indirect method to estimate utility and willingness to pay wtp for reductions in the risk of death at various ages using a life cycle model of consumption we assume that an individual sets his consumption level each year so as to maximize his expected lifetime utility alternative assumptions about opportunities for borrowing and annuities characterize two polar types of societies in our robinson crusoe case an individual must be entirely self sufficient and annuities are not available in our perfect markets case an individual can borrow against future earnings and purchase actuarially fair annuities we show that under these assumptions wtp is the sum of livelihood discounted expected future earnings and consumer surplus to illustrate our methods we derive wtp for an average financially independent american man under plausible assumptions the model is calibrated to 1978 earnings e g 18 000 per year for men aged 45 54 with at least some income in the robinson crusoe case wtp increases from 500 000 at age 20 to a peak of 1 250 000 at age 40 and declines to 630 000 at age 60 in the perfect markets case age variations are less pronounced wtp is 1 050 000 at age 20 peaks at 1 070 000 at age 25 and declines to 600 000 at age 60 these results suggest that individuals value risks to their lives at several times the pro rata share of their future earnings

seasonal food crises and policy responses a narrative account of three food security crises in malawi summary this paper examines seasonal food price crises in malawi in the 2000s malawi experienced three episodes in which seasonal maize prices rose in 2001 02 2004 05 and 2007 09 by 354 218 and 395 respectively these extreme price spikes resulted from a sequential interaction of economic and political events a repeated pattern of cause inapt response and adverse outcome is identified the relative neglect in vulnerability analysis of staple food price movements as lead indicators of impending food crises is emphasized and implications are drawn for price stabilisation public private coordination and social protection policies

commodity price stabilisation macroeconomic impacts and policy options a macroeconometric simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the impact of commodity price stabilisation cps schemes for the export tree crop industry in papua new guinea the findings suggest that there is a negligible level of favourable macroeconomic impacts of cps contrary to the expectation cps adversely affects the stability of monetary and external sectors bop cps policy has failed to stabilise the macroeconomy the price stabilisation policies are no longer appropriate from the macroeconomic point of view technical change futures market and rural savings are the possible alternative policy options to manage the price risk

is food financialized yes but only when liquidity is abundant abstract in this paper we investigate whether commodity index trader cit positions help to explain the increase in the correlations between agricultural commodities and equities starting around 2008 some argue institutional investors who invest both in stock and commodity markets demolish the borders between these two seemingly unrelated markets and increase correlations a recent phenomenon known as financialization yet some others argue recently correlations have decreased back to historical levels and the increase between 2008 and 2012 was merely due to a business cycle effect our results do not support one side at the expense of the other but rather shows that both factors are important in explaining the correlations between agricultural commodities and stocks furthermore we find that cits prefer to go back to their circle of competence under scarce liquidity and thus correlations decrease back to levels absent institutions hence low liquidity is a significant obstacle inhibiting financialization to occur

cost of business cycles with indivisibilities and liquidity constraints it is almost universally agreed that individuals face incomplete insurance markets and cannot perfectly insure against the idiosyncratic risk in this paper simple general equilibrium models with incomplete insurance markets are examined in order to assess the impact of imperfect insurance on the magnitude of the welfare costs of business cycles two versions of incomplete insurance markets are considered and certain statistical properties of the equilibrium stochastic processes in these environments are compared with those of a perfect insurance economy

the transition from barter to fiat money how did it become possible to exchange apparently valueless pieces of paper for goods this paper provides an equilibrium account of the transition between barter and fiat money regimes the explanation relies on the intervention of a self interested government that must be able to promise credibly to limit the issue of money to achieve credibility the government must offset the benefits of seigniorage by internalizing some of the macroeconomic externalities generated by the issue of fiat money the government s patience and the extent of its involvement in the economy are key determinants of whether the transition can be accomplished copyright 1995 by american economic association

welfare state retrenchment revisited entitlement cuts public sector restructuring and inegalitarian trends in advanced capitalist societies in recent years it has become commonplace for comparativists to emphasize the resilience of welfare states in advanced capitalist societies and the failure of neoliberal efforts to dismantle the welfare state challenging some tenets of the resilience thesis this article seeks to broaden the discussion of welfare state retrenchment the authors argue that a sharp deceleration of social spending has occurred in most oecd countries since 1980 that welfare states have failed to offset the rise of market generated inequality and insecurity and that welfare programs have become less universalistic they stress the distributive and political consequences of market oriented reforms of the public sector

price stabilization liberalization and food security conflicts and resolutions abstract an important stimulus for cereal sector reform has been the massive fiscal costs of many state procurement and intervention agencies this has led to policies to minimize their role in the future through rapid market liberalization and a substantially increased role for the private sector this approach may pay insufficient attention to price stabilization and food security issues there are several instances in which even with a well developed private sector government intervention will be required to achieve adequate stability moreover where the private sector is not fully developed public sector agencies can potentially play an important but hopefully declining role in either performing or financing stabilization services international assistance could be invaluable in supporting well run intervention agencies through temporary liquidity crises cereal sector reform is a difficult process even with strong government commitment this is frequently weakened because donor agencies are unwilling to appreciate and accommodate the real fears of governments concerning their loss of control over food security as a consequence of rapid liberalization the hope is expressed that with a more measured pace and explicit concern for this issue a stronger commitment to reform might emerge

liquidity a new monetarist perspective this essay surveys the new monetarist approach to liquidity work in this literature strives for empirical and policy relevance plus rigorous foundations questions include what is liquidity is money essential in achieving desirable outcomes which objects can or should serve in this capacity when can asset prices differ from fundamentals what are the functions of commitment and collateral in credit markets how does money interact with credit and intermediation what can and should monetary policy do the research summarized emphasizes the micro structure of frictional transactions and studies how institutions like monetary exchange credit arrangements or intermediation facilitate the exchange process

trading off volatility and distortions food policy during price spikes this paper analyses the trade off between price distortions and reduced volatility when governments intervened in agricultural and food markets during the recent food price spikes we develop a model to derive how much distortions a government would introduce when it cares about price stability in a situation with limited policy options we show that there is a trade off and identify the optimal combination of distortions and stability for given international price shocks and interest groups preferences for stability we compare these theoretical findings with empirical indicators on actual government interventions in staple food markets we find that several countries have been able to reduce short run price volatility in the domestic markets while at the same time allowing structural medium and long term price changes to pass through to producers and consumers however this is not the general case for many countries even when explicitly taking into account the trade off and the benefits of reducing volatility government policies appear far removed from the optimal trade off and there appears to be much room for policy improvement

project food aid and equitable growth income transfer efficiency first abstract this paper discusses the income transfer properties of food aid in order to shed light on the inputs necessary to ensure a contribution to equitable growth particularly with reference to the alleviation of poverty and malnutrition the author defines the concepts of income transfer efficiency and nutrition efficiency and shows that food aid which is income transfer efficient is usually also nutrition efficient some empirical evidence of the income transfer efficiency of different commodities supplied to various countries is reviewed and policy implications for the selection of food aid commodities and projects are discussed the author concludes with some working propositions designed to stimulate further debate on the selection and administration of food aid projects

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains