enhancing the internal validity of entrepreneurship experiments by assessing treatment effects at multiple levels across multiple trials abstract treatment effects in entrepreneurship experiments could vary significantly due to environmental uncertainty and individual heterogeneity drawing on critical realism experimental replication is useful for assessing the generalizability of the treatment effects or for confirming treatment effects across diverse entrepreneurship settings yet experiments in entrepreneurship have traditionally relied on single experimental trials and have not considered potential variance in treatment effects across contexts accounting for variance in treatment effects is even more pertinent under higher levels of environmental uncertainty to help assess the contingent effects of treatments across contexts we propose a set of methodological and statistical approaches for entrepreneurship researchers using different types of experimental replications and proposed statistical methods one may draw inferences about treatment effects at the trial the treatment and at the individual level we illustrate the proposed approach using experimental replications across three randomized post test experiments

market based empirical research in accounting a review interpretation and extension a decade and a half of the most concerted and ambitious research effort in accounting history is evaluated here it is the search into the relationship between publicly disclosed accounting information and the consequences of the use of this information by the major group of usersequity investors as such consequences are reflected in characteristics of common stocks traded in major exchanges this research effort known as market based accounting research mbar obtained its impetus from major developments in finance theory during the late 1950s and early 1960s these were the portfolio selection theory and its offspring the capital asset pricing model capm and the concept of informationally efficient capital markets ecm subsequent developments in information economics agency theory and optimal incentive signaling models were quickly incorporated into mbar while the impetus to this line of research came from other disciplines accounting was not only a beneficiary but also to a modest extent a benefactor mbar is relevant to the study of capital market efficiency the capm information economics and regulation this contribution distinguishes mbar from most accounting areas whose contributions to other disciplines are negligible in

the 6lucas critique a generalisation the extraordinarily influential lucas critique of various familiar econometric practices is generalized the intention though is not to argue against the possibility of economics as science but to hasten its widespread realization to this end it is argued that a quite significant change of direction in economic practice is warranted and an outline of a sustainable potentially fruitful alternative approach is indicated c 1995 academic press ltd copyright 1995 by oxford university press

on some criticisms of critical realism in economics methodological comments on critical realism in economics have proliferated over the past decade typically focusing on tony lawson s economics and reality and reorienting economics which constitute the core of this project in the present paper we select a series of important mostly very recent arguments against critical realism in economics and assess their merits and demerits

realist philosophy of the social sciences and economics a critique this paper deals with critical realism as a contribution to the philosophy of the social sciences in the first section critical realism is introduced differences from other philosophies of sciences espicially positivism and falsificationism are discussed in the second section critical realism is criticised first for failing as a normative philosophy of science second for relying upon an impoverished notion of knowledge acquistion and finally for its unsuitablity as a contribution to social theory

on the economic dividend of devolution rodriguez pose a and gill n 2005 on the economic dividend of devolution regional studies 39 405 420 recent political and academic discourse about devolution has tended to stress the economic advantages of the transfer of power from national to subnational institutions this economic dividend arises through devolved administrations ability to tailor policies to local needs generate innovation in service provision through inter territorial competition and stimulate participation and accountability by reducing the distance between those in power and their electorates this paper however outlines two related caveats first there are many forces that accompany devolution and work in an opposite direction devolved governmental systems may carry negative implications in terms of national economic efficiency and equity as well as through the imposition of significant institutional burdens second the economic gains as well as the downsides that devolution may engender are contingent to some

bringing the benefits of david to goliath special economic zones and institutional improvement abstractthe theory behind special economic zones sezs focuses on their role in overcoming broader policy failings in a country this paper hypothesizes that the ability of smaller countries to reform more quickly provides a theoretical missing link as to how sezs can assist reform developing the idea of sezs as a small country in a large country using a new database the paper tests this proposition by examining if sezs have actually been able to spur on institutional improvement in large countries results show that sezs do influence the institutional development of a country contingent upon prevailing institutional trends

schumpeter s conceptions of process and order this article scrutinises the conceptions of process and order present in schumpeter s substantive writings to facilitate a detailed understanding of his position his work is examined from different angles in three successive approximations the coherence or mismatch of schumpeter s conceptions is subsequently discussed the article argues that schumpeter s essay on social classes provides an ontologically grounded theory of process which is also a theory of reproduced order and that this theory does not fit well with schumpeter s alternative conception of order as equilibrium his methodological commitment to an orthodox notion of order as equilibrium is shown to be the source of pervasive tensions in his writings here classified as retroductive problems and spurious problems

a materialist development of some recent contributions to the labour theory of value the paper offers a novel interpretation and affirmation of the opening arguments of capital answering the fundamental but neglected question of why labour is the substance of value marx s arguments require that two philosophical threads often separated in the literature on value be woven together the argument that value is the intrinsic content making commodities exchangeable employs the thread of realism the argument that abstract labour is the emergent social substance of value employs the thread of dialectics this interpretation develops the materialist and dialectical philosophy of e v ilyenkov and deepens the approach to value theory initiated by ben fine

abstraction tendencies and stylised facts a realist approach to economic analysis in his numerous methodological asides and assertions that feature in his more empirically oriented postwar contributions nicholas kaldor makes frequent reference to notions of abstraction tendencies and stylized facts however the employment of such terms seems rarely to be explicitly questioned justified or explicated this paper argues that such notions can be readily explicated and their employment justified through adopting an explicitly realist approach to economic analysis it is also argued that realism represents a serious alternative to current orthodox approaches to economics without suffering from some of the latter s more obvious limitations copyright 1989 by oxford university press

realism underlabouring and institutions despite recent advances economic methodology has found it difficult to transcend certain positivist premisses and concerns we argue that developments in philosophy and social theory under the heading of critical realism are particularly significant with respect to overcoming these problems to illustrate we focus upon various themes that arise in a recent collection concerned with economic methodology and institutionalist economics relating these themes to relevant aspects of this realist position in so doing we argue that an economic methodology restricted to description and an institutionalism committed to some form of methodological individualism are not only unnecessary but problematic

smith and newton some methodological issues concerning general economic equilibrium theory there is general consensus that in economics adam smith is in the words of jevons the father of the science in this setting it has regularly been argued that neoclassical and modern mainstream economics carry through the methodological impetus brought into the discipline by smith moreover economists conventionally take it for granted that smith applied newton s method to political economy because newton s method is thought to be similar to that of modern mainstream economics the association of smith with newton is taken to further bolster the claim that modern mainstream economics continues the smithian tradition support for this commonly accepted view is gathered from smith s panegyric attitude to newton s conception of philosophy this shared conviction among economists underpins some interpretations of the invisible hand and of the intention behind the controversial chapter 7 of book i of the wn baptising smith as a forerunner if not the founder of theories of general economic equilibrium e g robbins 1962 1932 schumpeter 1994 1954 arrow hahn 1971 jaffe 1977 hollander 1973 1987 samuelson 1977 1992 as an offspring of the same tradition walras the architect of the equilibrium system has been set alongside newton the discoverer of the world system samuelson 1952 p 61

shackle on time uncertainty and process this paper is intended both as a contribution to the conceptual work on process in economic thought and as an attempt to connect a non institutionalist non evolutionary thinker to it the paper has two principal objectives i to delineate a broad philosophically grounded conception of what an economic process theory ept is and ii to locate the contributions of george shackle within this broad conception of ept in pursuing these two objectives i hope to draw out the originality and significance of shackle s economics with a particular emphasis on what he adds to process conceptions developed within other heterodox traditions such as institutional and evolutionary economics i will also highlight some of the perceived limitations of shackle s approach and link them to the limitations of process philosophy

the unknown masterpiece marx s model of capital this paper develops an alternative to traditional interpretations of karl marx rooted in his 1859 preface widely regarded as the definitive summary of his materialist conception of society it does this by reading marx in the light of the ontology of realism and the reproductive mode of inference via an examination of some pivotal texts centered around the grundrisse notebooks the paper indicates how a realist understanding of marx s reproductive method can be used to reconstruct and develop its creation marx s model of capital copyright 1998 by oxford university press

rules of the game the place of institutions in regional economic change gertler m s rules of the game the place of institutions in regional economic change regional studies institutions exert a pervasive influence on the evolution and character of regional economies yet this role is poorly understood within recent debates on neoliberalism varieties of capitalism and other approaches to the study of economic change a reconstituted institutional economic geography must accommodate individual agency institutional evolution interscalar relations and comparative methodologies examining recent work on universities in local economies as well as on creativity based strategies and social inclusion polarization it is shown how locally distinctive institutional architectures shape evolutionary trajectories leading to differentiated social and economic outcomes the paper then enunciates some important principles of methodology and theory building in institutional analysis gertler m s les regles du jeu le role des institutions dans le developpement economique region

small states in big trouble state reorganization in australia denmark new zealand and sweden in the 1980s in australia denmark new zealand and sweden in the 1980s coalitions of politicians fiscal bureaucrats and capital and labor in sectors exposed to international competition allied to transform the largest single nontradables sector in their society the state particularly the welfare state they exposed state personnel and agencies to market pressures and competition to reduce the cost of welfare and other state services the impetus for change came from rising foreign public and private debt rising public debt levels and expensive welfare states interacted to create a tax wedge between employers wage costs and workers received wages this undercut international competitiveness worsening current account deficits and leading to more foreign debt accumulation two factors explain variation in the degree of reorganization in each country differences in their electoral and constitutional regimes and the willingness of left parties to risk splitting their core constituencies introduction of market pressures is an effort to go beyond the liberalization of the economy common in industrial countries during the 1980s and both to institutionalize limits to welfare spending and to change the nature of statesociety relations away from corporatist forms of interest intermediation in short not just less state but a different state

the uncertain foundations of the welfare state abstract the welfare state is often portrayed as provider of insurance against uncertainties in knight s 1921 sense of the term which would be refused or underinsured on private markets this image conflicts with the standard economic model of risk exchange founded on the subjective interpretation of probability which predicts that all individual uncertainties will be insured by private markets our aim in this paper is to explain why this prediction fails and building on contributions to decision theory that take seriously the idea of knightian uncertainty to show why social insurance may be justified

economics for sustainable rural systems abstract critics often reproach the discipline of economics for supporting developments that result in environmental and social degradation this article identifies where such censure is valid but proceeds to argue that the rationale underlying economic techniques is at fault rather than the techniques themselves within the rural context we suggest that economics can make a valuable contribution to the design and achievement of sustainable ways of living valid criticism of economics focuses on its assumptions about value since this has led to emphasis of favourable effects of markets and laissez faire policies exposing rural areas to more rigorously competitive market conditions encourage their transformation by increasing mechanisation industrialisation and a less sustainable use of resources new approaches and policies are required if different outcomes are to be achieved an initial step is to identify desirable outcomes a matter of social choice however society makes multiple demands on rural resources and such issues cannot be adequately captured within a neo classical welfare model an alternative hierarchical framework in the tradition of systems thinking capable of analysing the complex relations associated with rural resource use provides appropriate emphasis to the economic links between goals at different levels within the system and appears to have some heuristic value an empirical counterpart of the hierarchical framework input output analysis generates information to support social choices and can also contribute to the understanding of economic systems and their interaction with the wider social cultural ethical and environmental universe the article concludes with some revised economic policy prescriptions to promote rural sustainability

special economic zones and the opening of the chinese economy some lessons for economic liberalization abstract this paper studies the implications of special economic zones in china s economic transition and attempts to draw some policy lessons for economic liberalization in a more general context establishing the zones has been the first and most crucial step that china took to reform and open its economy since 1979 the zones establishment performance and impacts on china s transition are examined in addition to related reform efforts and policy issues it is argued that the zones may serve as a policy means in facilitating trade and financial liberalization enhancing resource utilization and promoting economic growth and structural changes

veblen on the machine process and technological change this paper explores veblen s analysis of technological change i claim that rather than succumbing to the traditional criticisms his approach founders due to his failure to fully articulate a social ontology whilst veblen s analysis of his own time remains in many ways compelling this failure creates a gap between meta theoretical promise and current theoretical results i show how work in the social studies of technology has successfully avoided the ontological problems associated with veblenian economics this success is tempered by the fact that the field has not yet provided an appropriate framework to systematise the ways in which technical innovations transform social relations in ways that are beyond conscious control and manipulation copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

the appeal of neoclassical economics some insights from keynes s epistemology neoclassical economics continues to hold a particularly strong appeal for economists in spite of concerns about its internal logic and applicability to policy issues this appeal can be understood in terms of keynes s system of logic which established grounds for rational belief when knowledge is in general uncertain mainstream methodology limits economic theory to those elements of the economic process which can in practice be represented by a closed formal system a high degree of certainty can be achieved within those limits keynes s more general epistemology supports a methodology which can increase knowledge beyond those limits and thus extend the applicability of economics if this approach is to be pursued economics education needs to be broadened c 1995 academic press limited copyright 1995 by oxford university press

time series properties of earnings a comparison of extrapolative and component models for several years now accounting researchers have applied univariate time series analysis to investigate the behavior of reported numbers see foster 1977 griffin 1977 watts and leftwich 1977 and brown and rozeff 1979 univariate methods examine the interstructure of a series that is the behavior of the series explained by its own past variability when modeling the behavior of accounting data however the intrastructure between variables may also be relevant relationships exist between reported accounting numbers because economic events are interrelated and because the accounting measurement system imposes its own relationships consider the impact of investment in plant or equipment on earnings a direct impact occurs through depreciation an additional impact may occur through interest charges depending on both the extent of debt financing and the cost of debt finally since earnings is the aggregate of components such as revenue depreciation and interest charges its behavior is also the result of component aggregation multivariate methods are able to model such intrastructure while univariate

an investigation into adequate data for estimating annual earnings time series models abstract the purpose of this study is to examine the stability of corporate earnings per share eps time series models as the length of the time series are altered evidence is found to support the stationarity of corporate eps data furthermore outlier analysis is employed and supports the long run stability of corporate earnings series

a realist appraisal of post keynesian pricing theory this paper argues that based on the ontological insights of critical realism epistemological guidelines can be established to review post keynesian pricing theories critically consequently the paper suggests a basis on which the coherence of post keynesian pricing theory can be established crucially some often cited contrib u t i o n s are inconsistent with such a realist define d post keynesian economics the role of empirical work in critical realism is discussed

a critical realist interpretation of evolutionary growth theorising the article discusses a critical realist interpretation of evolutionary growth theorising by focusing on some of its basic characteristics the evolutionary ontology is complex differentiated structured systemic open ever changing and radically uncertain its methodology tends to be increasingly based on appreciative theorising retroductive explanations and interdisciplinary analysis after discussing these features the article suggests that critical realism may indeed constitute an important philosophical and methodological foundation for the future development of evolutionary theories of economic growth

the size of countries does it matter borders are a man made institution and as such their shape cannot be taken as part of the physical landscape the size of countries is endogenous to politico economic forces this paper discusses recent efforts by economists to study three related questions what determines the evolution of the size of countries does size matter for economic success given the trend toward decentralization and of creation of supernational unions such as the eu is the meaning of national borders evolving jel h10

das maynard keynes problem one of the classic questions in the history of ideas first arose one hundred years ago in germany reading adam smith s two great works the theory of moral sentiments and the wealth of nations late 19th century german economists were struck by an apparent puzzle how could the theorist who made sympathy the mainspring of human action in the first book argue in the second that calculating self interest was the primary motive force thus arose das adam smith problem how could one reconcile the advocate of sympathy with the advocate of self interest the history of the attempts to answer this question is instructive in many ways it is instructive in part as a lesson in the fertility of the history of economic thought as a source of ideas a o hirschman is an outstanding example of an original and creative theorist who has come to fresh insights on the basis of his research on the question see hirschman 1977 1986 the history is also instructive in pointing out the indeterminate nature of the solution to the problem despite the stature of the scholars who have worked in the field and the high quality of their work one must ultimately accept that we shall never know the true answer to the question smith left few papers and the context of his thought is itself a puzzle for us careful reconstruction of the unfolding social cultural and philosophical worlds that smith inhabited would certainly be hallmarks of any acceptable answer to the question but authorities on each of these background areas themselves disagree about what was happening in the worlds in which smith lived reasonable persons must agree to disagree about the answer to the question

stationarity and outliers in annual accounting earnings abstract the purpose of this study is to apply a unit root test to examine the stationarity of corporate earnings per share eps series we find evidence to support the stationarity of corporate eps data furthermore outlier analysis is employed and supports the long run stability of corporate earnings series

deficient foresight a troublesome theme in keynesian economics the fact that john maynard keynes had made a distinguished contribution to the theory of probability 1921 no doubt predisposed many of his readers to imbue with great significance his subsequent remarks on the related topic of uncertainty in economic decision making among those who have provided commentaries on his work there are those who have singled out this uncertainty theme not only for its special importance but also for its potential for analytical subversion the purpose of this paper is to scrutinize the ideas involved in this particular aspect of keynes work together with the lines of argument that have emerged from those commentators who have pursued it the result of this scrutiny will be to call into question the idea that there is anything peculiarly subversive in the analytical consequences of broaching problems of uncertainty in economic decision making i shall argue rather that as an analytical issue it is depending on how it is handled either innocuous or else quite indiscriminately destructive

a model intervenes the many faces of moral hazard this article builds on advances in social ontology to develop a new understanding of how mainstream economic modelling affects reality we propose a new framework for analysing and describing how models intervene in the social sphere this framework allows us to identify and articulate three key epistemic features of models as interventions specificity portability and formal precision the second part of the article uses our framework to demonstrate how specificity portability and formal precision explain the use of moral hazard models in a variety of different policy contexts including worker compensation schemes bank regulation and the euro sovereign debt crisis

causality and interdependence in pasinetti s works and in the modern classical approach the formal representation of economic theories normally takes the form of a model that is a system of equations which connect the endogenous variables with the values of the parameters which are taken as given sometimes it is possible to identify one or more equations which are able to determine a subset of endogenous variables priorly and independently of the other equations and of the value taken by the remaining variables of the system the first group of equations and variables are thus said to determine causally the remaining variables in pasinetti s works this notion of causality has often been emphasized as a formal property having the burden to convey some deep economic meaning in this work we will go through those pasinetti s works where this notion of causality plays a central role with the purpose to contextualize it within the econometric debate of the sixties to enucleate its economic meaning and to show its connections with other fields of the modern classical approach

the relative absolute nature of knowledge and economic analysis central to economic analysis are assumptions and hypotheses concerning the extent and nature of the knowledge held by individuals in this respect it is a noticeable feature of realist accounts that they tend to focus upon the pervasiveness of uncertainty as an undeniable fact of economic life nonrealist or instrumentalist accounts in contrast tend to assume that agents have perfect information correct foresight rational expectations and so on it is also apparent that this realist focus upon uncertainty tends to give rise to a concentration of attention upon those situations in which possibly numerically measurable probabilistic knowledge is thought to be available clearly such accounts are important nevertheless i wish to suggest that such a restricted choice of focus for the realist is not entirely satisfactory since in particular it tends to lead to a neglect of the widespread observation that feelings of certainty and claims to truth are also pervasive in human society i want to suggest moreover that if we are to account for the latter observation and economists concerned with realism of analysis surely need to then various arguments and conclusions have to be taken on board which in turn appear to bear consequentially upon the nature and conduct of economic analysis in general section i below discusses such possible limitations of existing realist accounts of agent knowledge in some detail the suggested route for responding to and resolving apparent problems which involves the argument that aspects of knowledge can have a relative as well as an absolute character is described in sections ii and iii and the various analytical consequences of the account there set out are discussed in section iv section v contains concluding comments and touches upon ways in which the proposed account might be appraised and rnade operational

institutional rigidities and economic growth this paper involves a critical discussion of nicholas kaldor s contribution to the theory of economic growth and the associated verdoorn law as well as kaldor s theory prominent rival theories such as the diffusion hypothesis of s gomulka and the neo marxist model proposed by s bowles et al are found wanting an alternative approach is developed based on the nature and role of institutions in modern economies and their function in encapsulating or transmitting both codifiable and noncodifiable knowledge confirmation of this institutional theory of economic growth is provided by an econometric test using cross section oecd data copyright 1989 by oxford university press

reform and openness why china s economic reforms have delayed democracy most theories that seek to explain democratization look to changes in the economy as the precursor to significant political liberalization locating the main causal factor in either severe economic crisis or rapid economic growth in the chinese context by contrast the communist party has extricated itself from the socialist social contract with the urban working class without losing its grip on political power moreover china has maintained a rapid pace of economic growth for over twenty five years without significant political liberalization comparative analysis of china s post 1978 reform policies yields insights both across types of socialist transition comparing china with eastern europe and russia and across time comparing china with other high growth east asian economies a key factor in china s ability to reform the economy without sacrificing political control is the timing and sequencing of its foreign direct investment fdi liberalization there are two key variables that are important to this comparative analysis china s pattern of ownership diversification and china s mode of integration into the global economy the article relates these two variables to the success of economic change without political liberalization in particular how fdi liberalization has affected relations between workers and the ruling communist party reform and openness in this context resulted in a strengthened chinese state a weakened civil society especially labor and a delay in political liberalization

a new look at forecasting annual corporate earnings in the u s a abstract in this study composite earnings per share models are estimated for 35 chemical food and utility firms during the 1981 1982 period although it is generally held that financial analysts produce superior earnings forecasts when compared to time series model forecasts the results of this study indicate that analysts fared very poorly in 1982 and the average mean square forecasting error of analyst forecasts may be reduced by 74 2 percent by combining analyst and univariate time series model forecasts this reduction is very interesting when one finds that the univariate time series model forecasts do not substantially deviate from those produced by random walk drift models the arima 0 1 1 process moreover despite the high degree of correlation existing among analyst and time series forecasts the ordinary least squares estimation of the composite earnings model is a better forecasting model than the composite earnings models estimated with ridge regression and latent root regression techniques

post modernism and the notion of rationality in economics this article assesses contributions from economists who see the postmodernist framework as providing a viable alternative to the behavioristic model of action in economics it is found that although postmodernism identifies many of the problems of mainstream economics it too remains unable to sustain the notions of choice and agency that it preaches because it fails to escape the anthropocentrism of positivist philosophy once this anthropocentrism is abandoned it can be seen that agency lies not only in linguistic redescription but also in the understanding of real causal mechanisms that exist and act independently of any individual human agents c 1995 academic press inc copyright 1995 by oxford university press