the impact of population on co2 emissions evidence from european countries this paper analyses the impact of population growth on co2 emissions in european union countries traditionally researchers have assumed a unitary elasticity of emissions with respect to population growth in this study population is treated as a predictor in the model instead of being included as part of the dependent variable per capita emissions thus relaxing the above mentioned assumption of unitary elasticity we also contribute to the existing literature by taking into account the presence of heterogeneity in the sample and considering a dynamic specification the sample covers the period 1975 1999 for the current european union members our results show that the impact of population growth on emissions is more than proportional for recent accession countries whereas for old eu members the elasticity is lower than unity and non significant when the properties of the time series and the dynamics are correctly specified the different impact of population change on co2 emissions for the current eu members should therefore be taken into account in future discussions of climate change policies within the eu

how to improve the performance of carbon tax in china abstract the chinese government committed to controlling carbon dioxide co 2 emissions and promoting development of non fossil fuels thus it becomes a top priority for the government to develop effective climate policies against such background this paper develops a new multi country computable general equilibrium cge model with detailed energy disaggregation this study evaluates the impact of single policy instrument carbon tax and combined policy mixes in order to investigate driving factors affecting the policy performance the main findings are as follows firstly the driving factors can be classified into two types the first type of factors affects cost effectiveness significantly while the second type generates considerable effect on emission performance secondly cross border externalities function as important barriers to the co 2 emission reduction since they imply extra competitiveness loss and result in considerable carbon leakage finally this paper considers two integrated policy mixes wherein carbon tax revenue is recycled to reduce capital tax or support clean energy subsidy these policy mixes can improve both cost effectiveness and emission performance and thus perform better than carbon tax alone in this way carbon tax revenue can be used to improve the performance looking ahead complicated policy mixes are preferred to improve the performance of china s carbon tax

technological change and the rebound effect in the stirpat model a critical view abstract technological change is key to understand the explanatory variables behind environmental impacts in the context of the stirpat stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology model an adequate representation and analysis of the significance of the technology variable t in the stirpat model becomes crucial even more if one aims to better understand underlying processes such as the environmental rebound effect e re a critical review of the application of the stirpat model has been conducted to understand the diversity and value of the variables scopes assumptions statistical approaches and the environmental impacts commonly studied the findings highlight that despite the multiple applications and the high potential of the stirpat model inconclusive results and or knowledge gaps remain notably 1 a geographical imbalance in the scope of studies 2 the almost exclusive focus on carbon emissions 3 a lack of agreement on the choice of data additional explanatory variables and regression models 4 a lack of consensus on how to approximate t and 5 a lack of explicit analyses of the e re our findings are useful to both policymakers and academics for method design further research and policy evaluation

the cross country implications of alternative climate policies abstract because of worldwide growing concerns about global climate change great interest has been expressed in the potential of alternative climate policies to reduce global carbon emissions in this paper we compare cross country implications of alternative climate policies including unilateral and multilateral climate policies our main findings are as follows firstly there are large differences in cross country effects of alternative unilateral climate policies when the same given carbon emission reductions are achieved in each abating country respectively meanwhile cross border externalities undermine efficiency of unilateral climate policies secondly there are significant differences in cross country implications of alternative multilateral climate policies when the same global emission reductions are allocated in several different ways among abating countries thirdly it is difficult to reach a stable global climate treaty since any abating country has the incentive to argue for small carbon emission reductions finally multilateral climate policies can reduce the negative impacts of cross border externalities but cannot cure all cross border externalities looking ahead it will be a great policy challenge for the world to reduce carbon emissions in a cost effective way

an analysis of policy scenario effects on the adoption of energy production on the farm a case study in emilia romagna italy abstract the agriculture sector s contribution to energy production is a central issue in ongoing policy debates and one of the central elements of the development of bioeconomy sector the common agricultural policy cap is one of the main determinants of the different farm strategies of european farmers the cap is now undergoing a thorough revision process which necessarily includes a debate of the role of the policy in rural areas and the effectiveness of the various cap policy mechanisms the objective of this paper is to assess the impact of alternative cap scenarios in the light of the possible changes in 2013 and the willingness to adopt energy plants for energy crops in the province of bologna italy this is pursued using both survey information and farm household mathematical programming models hence using stated intentions and simulated profitability to analyse the adopt of new technologies for energy production the results underscore the relevance of the cap scenarios in altering intentions with regard to the adoption of energy production and the relevant effect of uncertainty in delaying the diffusion of energy production systems

revealing the nexus among energy economy system with haken model evidence from china s beijing tianjin hebei region abstract economic growth eg and energy consumption ec are interacting processes critical to regional sustainability the evolution mechanism and the nexus between them in the development process of jing jin ji region which is one of the most important agglomerations in china remain unrevealed systematically first the trends in decoupling state between eg and ec during 2001 2016 are checked with the impact gross domestic product technology igt model then eg and ec are defined as two sub systems to form a whole system with eg as the fast variable and ec as the slow one the evolutional interactions among the two subsystems and the whole system are elaborated through the haken model based on the synergetic theory by identifying changes in the decoupling index dr and the control variables a b 1 and 2 simulated by the haken model it can be demonstrated that the development of beijing reached a relatively good state with synergetic coordination of eg and ec the effect of eg on ec and ec on eg reversed in tianjin from positive to negative and hebei from negative to positive respectively ec kept prompting eg in tianjin and eg kept inhibiting ec in hebei both regions have not achieved a complete synergy of eg and ec calling for further ameliorations in economic development and energy consumption patterns in a transitional period this study is a first attempt to apply haken model in the field of energy and economy from the perspective of synergetics the exploration of the evolutional nexus between eg and ec in the jing jin ji region is expected to provide important references for policy formulation both locally and for other regions

efficient patent pools the paper builds a tractable model of patent pools agreements among patent owners to license sets of their patents it provides a necessary and sufficient condition for patent pools to enhance welfare and shows that requiring pool members to be able to independently license patents matters if and only if the pool is otherwise welfare reducing the paper allows patents to differ in importance asymmetric blocking patterns and licensors to also be licensees we undertake some initial exploration of the impact of pools on innovation the analysis has broader applicability than pools being relevant to a number of co marketing arrangements

evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process urbanization and economic development go hand in hand as a country moves from a rural agricultural base to an urban industrial base this paper argues that urbanization per se occurs in response to the basic sector shift out of agriculture and government policies such as price controls and trade protection of industry affect the process only indirectly through their effect on sector composition however urban concentration the extent to which a country s urban resources are concentrated in one or two large cities as opposed to more evenly spread is much more directly affected by policies and politics the paper finds specifically that investments in inter regional infrastructure facilitates urban deconcentration away from primate to hinterland cities as does increasing democratization or increasing fiscal decentralization the findings move beyond establishing basic correlations in the data to trying to quantify causal effects in a panel framework with instrumental variables estimation

the digital provide information technology market performance and welfare in the south indian fisheries sector when information is limited or costly agents are unable to engage in optimal arbitrage excess price dispersion across markets can arise and goods may not be allocated efficiently in this setting information technologies may improve market performance and increase welfare between 1997 and 2001 mobile phone service was introduced throughout kerala a state in india with a large fishing industry using microlevel survey data we show that the adoption of mobile phones by fishermen and wholesalers was associated with a dramatic reduction in price dispersion the complete elimination of waste and near perfect adherence to the law of one price both consumer and producer welfare increased

how urbanization affects china s energy efficiency a spatial econometric analysis abstract this paper investigates the impact of urbanization on provincial energy efficiency in china using panel data of 30 chinese provinces between 2003 and 2014 we adopt a stochastic frontier model to estimate energy efficiency in china and apply a series of spatial panel data models to tackle spatial dependence of energy efficiency between provinces our results show that the overall impact of urbanization on energy efficiency is negative in china these results are established after controlling for spatial correlation and other confounding factors and are also robust to various model specifications we also document that the impact of urbanization on provincial energy efficiency manifests through both a direct negative impact induced by the focal province s urbanization process and an indirect positive spillover effect caused by urbanization in adjacent areas

regional energy efficiency carbon emission performance and technology gaps in china a meta frontier non radial directional distance function analysis abstract at present china is the largest primary energy consumer and carbon emitter in the world meantime china is a large transitional economy with significant regional gaps against such backgrounds the calculated results of energy and carbon performance indicators may be biased without considering heterogeneity across regions to this end after incorporating region heterogeneity this paper provides detailed information regarding energy efficiency carbon emission performance and the potential of carbon emission reductions from regional perspectives which may be important and useful for policy makers our main findings are as follows firstly there is significant group heterogeneity across regions in china in terms of energy efficiency and carbon emission performance secondly there are no considerable differences between total factor and single factor performance indices since there is limited substitutability between energy inputs and other production inputs finally significant carbon emission reductions can be made by catching up for regions with low energy efficiency and carbon emission performance looking ahead the chinese government should adopt measures to promote improvements in terms of energy efficiency and carbon emission performance in the short term

an analysis of the implications of china s urbanization policy for economic growth and energy consumption abstract china intends to rely on urbanization policies to increase its economic growth even against the backdrop of new constraints on energy consumption this paper investigates the impact of urbanization on economic growth and energy consumption using data from china s 266 prefecture level cities over the 2000 2010 period and examines the heterogeneity of this impact across income and urbanization groups the main results of our empirical estimation indicate that 1 the effect of urbanization on economic growth is positive and significant for the entire sample although it is positive and significant only for high and middle income groups and not the low income group 2 the impact of urbanization on energy consumption is positive and significant for all groups when the sample is divided into three urbanization groups based on the northam curve indicating that urbanization will lead to large increases in energy consumption in summary our empirical results show that urbanization targets will be difficult to achieve in terms of increasing gdp per capita under energy consumption constraints

why competition may drive up prices abstract we show that the expected price of an incumbent firm may increase in response to increasing competition as it may become more profitable to exploit a rather immobile fraction of consumers instead of capturing a larger but more contested segment of the market to derive this result we consider two approaches of modelling the degree of competition first in a duopolistic setting competition is said to be more intense if the entrant s product becomes more attractive to the mobile fraction of buyers in this case we find that all buyers i e both the mobile and the immobile fraction may lose if the market becomes more competitive secondly in a model with two entrants competition is said to become intense if entrants serve an overlapping segment of the market for mobile buyers

can public private partnerships leverage private investment in agricultural value chains in africa a preliminary review summary public private partnerships ppps may be one way of increasing the level of private sector investment into poorly performing agricultural value chains this paper considers a range of ppp mechanisms that respond to different market failures affecting such chains and draws on principal agent theory to illustrate the challenges it reviews emerging experience with a number of these mechanisms along with experience from other sectors that may shed light on generic problems of implementing ppps in africa while finding some positive impacts on investment it notes that state failures can also undermine ppp effectiveness as the evidence base is still limited it calls on organizations promoting innovative ppps to disclose available information for critical examination

footprints on the earth the environmental consequences of modernity growing evidence demonstrating clear threats to the sustainability of the ecosystems supporting human societies has given rise to a variety of sociological theories of human environment interactions these environmental impact theories fall into three general perspectives human ecology modernization and political economy these theories however have not been empirically tested in a common analytic framework here a framework that relies on ecological principles is adopted and modified using a revised stochastic formulation of that framework and the most comprehensive measure of environmental impact to date the ecological footprint the factors driving the environmental impacts of societies are assessed the overall findings support the claims of human ecologists partially support the claims of political economists and contradict the claims of modernization theorists basic material conditions such as population economic production urbanization and geographical factors all affect the environment and explain the vast majority of cross national variation in environmental impact factors derived from neo liberal modernization theory such as political freedom civil liberties and state environmentalism have no effect on impacts taken together these findings suggest societies cannot be sanguine about achieving sustainability via a continuation of current trends in economic growth and institutional change authors

the effect of urbanization on co2 emissions in emerging economies the theories of ecological modernization and urban environmental transition both recognize that urbanization can have positive and negative impacts on the natural environment with the net effect being hard to determine a priori this study uses recently developed panel regression techniques that allow for heterogeneous slope coefficients and cross section dependence to model the impact that urbanization has on co2 emissions for a panel of emerging economies the estimated contemporaneous coefficients on the energy intensity and affluence variables are positive statistically significant and fairly similar across different estimation techniques by comparison the estimated contemporaneous coefficient on the urbanization variable is sensitive to the estimation technique in most specifications the estimated coefficient on the urbanization variable is positive but statistically insignificant the implications of these results for sustainable development policy are discussed

valuing new goods in a model with complementarity online newspapers many important economic questions hinge on the extent to which new goods either crowd out or complement consumption of existing products recent methods for studying new goods rule out complementarity by assumption so their applicability to these questions has been limited i develop a new model that relaxes this restriction and use it to study competition between print and online newspapers using new micro data from washington dc i estimate the relationship between the print and online papers in demand the welfare impact of the online paper s introduction and the expected impact of charging positive online prices

technical and allocative efficiency of irrigation water use in the guanzhong plain china due to increasing water scarcity accelerating industrialization and urbanization efficiency of irrigation water use in northern china needs urgent improvement based on a sample of 347 wheat growers in the guanzhong plain this paper simultaneously estimates a production function and its corresponding first order conditions for cost minimization to analyze efficiency of irrigation water use the main findings are that average technical allocative and overall economic efficiency are 0 35 0 86 and 0 80 respectively in a second stage analysis we find that farmers perception of water scarcity water price and irrigation infrastructure increase irrigation water allocative efficiency while land fragmentation decreases it we also show that farmers income loss due to higher water prices can be offset by increasing irrigation water use efficiency

does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower co2 emissions a cross country analysis despite the relationship between urbanization energy use and co2 emissions has been extensively studied in recent years little attention has been paid to differences in development stages or income levels most previous studies have implicitly assumed that the impact of urbanization is homogenous for all countries this assumption can be questionable as there are many characteristic differences among countries of different levels of affluence this paper investigates empirically the effects of urbanization on energy use and co2 emissions with consideration of the different development stages using the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat model and a balanced panel dataset of 99 countries over the period 1975 2005 the findings suggest that the impact of urbanization on energy use and emissions varies across the stages of development surprisingly urbanization decreases energy use in the low income group while it increases energy use in the middle and high income groups the impact of urbanization on emissions is positive for all the income groups but it is more pronounced in the middle income group than in the other income groups these novel findings not only help advance the existing literature but also can be of special interest to policy makers and urban planners

do urbanization and industrialization affect energy intensity in developing countries abstract against a backdrop of concerns about climate change peak oil and energy security issues reducing energy intensity is often advocated as a way to at least partially mitigate these impacts this study uses recently developed heterogeneous panel regression techniques like mean group estimators and common correlated effects estimators to model the impact that income urbanization and industrialization has on energy intensity for a panel of 76 developing countries in the long run a 1 increase in income reduces energy intensity by 0 45 to 0 35 long run industrialization elasticities are in the range 0 07 to 0 12 the impact of urbanization on energy intensity is mixed in specifications where the estimated coefficient on urbanization is statistically significant it is slightly larger than unity the implications of these results for energy policy are discussed

unbundling the local loop abstract we study competition for high bandwidth services in the telecommunications industry by introducing the possibility of unbundling the local loop where leased lines permit the entrant to provide services without building up its own infrastructure we use a dynamic model of technology adoption and study the incentives of the entrant to lease loops and compete service based and or to build up a new and more efficient infrastructure and compete facility based given the rental price we show that the incumbent sets too low a rental price for its loops hence the entrant adopts the new technology too late from a social welfare perspective the distortion may appear not only on the timing of technology adoption but also on the type quality of the new technology to be adopted we also show that while regulating the rental price may suffice to achieve socially desirable outcomes a sunset clause does not improve social welfare

can consumers willingness to pay incentivize adoption of environmental impact reducing technologies in meat animal production abstract this study develops a model estimating consumer willingness to pay wtp for environmental meat attributes and uses a multi objective nutritional optimizer to explore the extent to which wtp can offset on farm costs of reducing water use data for the wtp model are sourced from a literature survey of the agricola and google scholar databases yielding 46 studies estimating wtp for pure and impure organic grass fed natural environmental meat attributes bayesian analysis is used to estimate 3 models varying in independent variables models are evaluated by the correlation coefficient r2 root mean squared error of prediction rmspe and posterior model probability the most probable model is then used to estimate a confidence range of wtp for pure environmental beef impure environmental labels result in higher wtp than pure labels non hypothetical wtp for pure environmental labeling for north american consumers ranges from 6 7 to 32 6 a case study is conducted to identify the expected reduction in water use that can be funded from capturing wtp through labeling a multi objective nutritional optimizer is used to identify ideal management of beef cattle to reduce whole system water use in three regions of the united states cost increases from management are varied over the predicted range in wtp and combined with the probability of a consumer purchasing beef at each wtp value to identify the theoretical effect on expected environmental impact reduction a 10 premium is the ideal wtp resulting in water use reductions between 24 4 l and 41 4 l

impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use evidence from low middle and high income countries abstract few attempts have been made to investigate quantitatively and systematically the impact of urbanization on transport energy use for countries of different stages of economic development this paper examines the influence of urbanization on national transport and road energy use for low middle and high income countries during 1975 2005 using the stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology stirpat model after controlling for population size income per capita and the share of services in the economy the main results suggest that urbanization influences national transport and road energy use positively however the magnitude of its influence varies among the three income groups changes in urbanization appear to have a greater impact on transport and road energy use in the high income group than in the other groups surprisingly the urbanization elasticities of transport and road energy use in the middle income group are smaller than those of the low income group this study not only sheds further light on the existing literature but also provides policy makers with insightful information on the link between urbanization and transport energy use at the three different stages of development

u s industry adjustment to economic deregulation conomic deregulation does not happen overnight it takes time for lawmakers and regulators to dismantle regulatory regimes and then it takes more time for the deregulated industries to adjust to their new competitive environment federal regulatory agencies and the u s congress began liberalizing pricing entry and exit in the transportation financial energy and communications industries during the mid 1970s but while some smaller industries such as intercity bus transportation and air cargo have been fully deregulated during that time the only major american industries fully deregulated to date are airlines and motor carriers as to the pace of industry adjustment consider airlines economic deregulation of the airline industry began in 1974 when the civil aeronautics board first encouraged experiments with discount fares it was completed in 1983 when all regulations on fares entry and exit were eliminated yet more than 20 years after the deregulatory process began the airline industry continues to shed inefficiencies that accumulated over decades of regulation and to find new ways to market their service indeed the airlines latest marketing innovation selling discount fares on the internet would be illegal if fares were still regulated it is not surprising that deregulated or partially deregulated industries are slow to achieve maximum efficiency when regulatory restrictions on pricing operations and entry especially from new firms have been enforced for decades managers and employees of regulated firms settle into patterns of inefficient production and missed opportunities for technological advance and entry into new markets deregulation frees an industry from the state s control over prices entry and exit although of course firms are still subject to antitrust laws and safety regulations after deregulation some costs usually fall in short order but it takes

residential electricity demand in taiwan this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in taiwan as a function of household disposable income population growth the price of electricity and the degree of urbanization short and long term effects are separated through the use of an error correction model in the long run the income elasticity is unit elastic the own price effect is negative and inelastic in an error correction framework the short run income and price effects are small and less than the long run effects cooling degree day effects have a positive impact on short run consumption we have used a proxy variable urbanization to capture economic development characteristics and changes in electricity using capital stocks not explained by income the variable provides significant explanatory power to the model both in the short and long run we interpret it as controlling for economic development factors not captured by the pure income effect and we think it holds promise for explaining residential electricity consumption in other developing countries

meddling through regulating local telephone competition in the united states after a brief history of telecommunication policies and the development of local competition in the united states this paper analyzes the telecommunications act of 1996 and subsequent fcc and state regulatory decisions unfortunately these recent policy changes have generated pervasive intrusive regulations undermining the objectives the telecom act was intended to promote competition innovation and investment in telecommunications infrastructure states should allow incumbent local carriers to rebalance their retail rates and set interconnection prices based on actual costs federal policymakers should reduce and liberalize regulations allowing market forces more freedom to allocate resources and shape industry structure

agricultural technologies for climate change in developing countries policy options for innovation and technology diffusion climate has obvious direct effects on agricultural production the reverse is more apparent than ever as greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are tallied the development and effective diffusion of new agricultural practices and technologies will largely shape how and how well farmers mitigate and adapt to climate change this adaptation and mitigation potential is nowhere more pronounced than in developing countries where agricultural productivity remains low poverty vulnerability and food insecurity remain high and the direct effects of climate change are expected to be especially harsh creating the necessary agricultural technologies and harnessing them to enable developing countries to adapt their agricultural systems to changing climate will require innovations in policy and institutions as well potential constraints to innovation involve both the private and public sectors in both developing and developed countries the process of transferring agricultural innovations across agroecological and climatic zones is often subject to agronomic constraints often the most binding constraints occur at the adoption stage with several factors that potentially impede poor farmers access to and use of new technologies based on discussions of these constraints we derive six policy principles and use these principles to suggest several specific investments and policy priorities

trade policy and the effects of climate forecasts on agricultural markets damental to modeling the effects of a climate forecast on agricultural markets is the direct agronomic impacts of climate on commodity production but also important are the endogenous responses of growers traders and others this paper examines market responses to climate information in a simple framework that highlights the most important issues while abstracting from most complications we emphasize how trade policy affects commodity market responses and the value of climate information

dynamics of price regulation we study the dynamics of price regulation for an industry adjusting to exogenous technological progress first we characterize the optimal capacity path and replacement cycles in a neoclassical investment model second we show that naive rate ofreturn regulation which ignores components of economic depreciation eventually results in a deficient level of capacity due to excessively high retail prices burdened by the need to recover the underdepreciated costs of historical investments third we explain how price cap regulation leads to more efficient capital replacement decisions compared to naive rate of return regulation and we show how finite price cap horizons distort capital replacement finally we interpret recent regulatory reforms in telecommunications markets

urban concentration agglomeration economies and the level of economic development there is a view among planners in the developing nations that the process of economic development invariably results in the concentration of population in one or two primal cities there is also however considerable disagreement over whether this apparent relationship is either necessary or desirable proponents on the one hand argue that concentrated urbanization strongly supports industrial development through the realization of scale and agglomeration economies 2 dissenters from this view feel that urban concentration creates serious social costs and results more from historical or political forces than economic ones in this case policies aimed at decentralizing growth can achieve social objectives without sacrificing economic efficiency despite these deliberations it is surprising that there has been little or no empirical study of urban concentration on either a longitudinal or cross national basis the major related work which exists is williamson s research on economic development and income inequality 3 williamson demonstrates that as economic growth begins inequality initially increases but then diminishes in the more advanced stages of development this coincides with hirschman s4 view that industrialization eventually spreads into more backward areas reduc

do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change rapidly expanding global trade in the past three decades has lifted millions out of people out of poverty trade has also reduced manufacturing wages in high income countries and made entire industries uncompetitive in some communities giving rise to nationalist politics that seek to stop or reverse further trade expansion in the united states and europe given complex and uncertain political support for trade how might changes in trade policy affect the global food system s ability to adapt to climate change here we argue that we can best understand food security in a changing climate as a double exposure the exposure of people and processes to both economic and climate related shocks and stressors trade can help us adapt to climate change or not if trade restrictions proliferate double exposure to both a rapidly changing climate and volatile markets will likely jeopardize the food security of millions a changing climate will present both opportunities and challenges for the global food system and adapting to its many impacts will affect food availability food access food utilization and food security stability for the poorest people across the world global trade can continue to play a central role in assuring that global food system adapts to a changing climate this potential will only be realized however if trade is managed in ways that maximize the benefits of broadened access to new markets while minimizing the risks of increased exposure to international competition and market volatility for regions like africa for example enhanced transportation networks combined with greater national reserves of cash and enhanced social safety nets could reduce the impact of double exposure on food security

how urbanization affects energy use in developing countries abstract this paper identifies mechanisms whereby urbanization affects energy consumption industrialization and urbanization accompany each other during economic development but urbanization exerts a number of independent influences on energy use it permits economies of scale in production but requires more transportation food must be transported to urbanized populations and relatively smaller agricultural populations must modernize entailing considerable increases in agricultural energy use in cities a number of production activities which were domestically provided in rural areas using human or animal energy shift to sources outside the household using modern energy sources the largest single source of change in energy use is personal transportation passenger transport in cities is heavily weighted towards fuel using modes particularly as incomes increase to assess the overall impact a regression analysis of 59 developing countries for 1980 is conducted holding constant per capita income and the extent of industrialization the elasticity of energy consumption per capita and per dollar of gdp is between 0 35 and 0 48

is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change a micro econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in african agriculture abstract this paper examines whether an integrated farm that owns both crops and livestock is more resilient under global warming than a specialized farm in crops using around 9000 farm surveys across africa we explore how farmers choose one of the farm types and how the net revenue of each type varies across the range of climate in africa the results indicate that an integrated farm increases in number while a specialized farm decreases across africa under climate predictions for 2060 the relative profitability of each system against each other also changes an integrated farm becomes relatively more profitable over specialized farms half a century from now the impacts of climate change on integrated farms range from 9 loss to 27 gain depending on climate scenarios behavioral models can capture portfolio diversification benefits that agro economic models cannot measure