the relative forecasting performance of the divisia and simple sum monetary aggregates this paper provides direct evidence on the forecasting performance of the divisia monetary aggregates relative to the traditional simple sum monetary aggregates it is shown that forecasts of u s real gdp from a four variable vector autoregression var are most accurate when a divisia aggregate is used rather than a simple sum aggregate particularly at broad levels of aggregation further the two m1 aggregates relative to the broader aggregates are superior predictors of the gdp deflator with a slight edge going to divisia m1 over simple sum m1

one market one number a composite indicator assessment of eu internal market dynamics we consider the lack of consensus about an appropriate theoretical framework linking sub indicators as a defining characteristic of composite indicators this intrinsic feature implies uncertainties about the appropriate normalization and aggregation of the raw data the two are related index theory offers some valuable guidelines about their connection yet these do not fully solve the basic problem of expert disagreement we embed such residual disagreement in the aggregation method itself specifically we apply an impartial benefit of the doubt weighting procedure where weight restrictions incorporate the available information on experts opinions we apply this procedure to the dynamic performance assessment of eu internal market effects thereby highlighting its capacity to disaggregate member states observed performance shifts into changes relative to benchmarks and performance changes of the benchmarks i e catching up versus genuine progress our results indicate that the latter factor is more important in explaining the observed progress

inferring the incidence of industry inefficiency from dea estimates abstract data envelopment analysis dea is among the most popular empirical tools for measuring cost and productive efficiency within an industry because dea is a linear programming technique establishing formal statistical properties for outcomes is difficult we model the incidence of inefficiency within a population of decision making units dmus as a latent variable with dea outcomes providing only noisy and generally inaccurate sample based categorizations of inefficiency we then use a bayesian approach to infer an appropriate posterior distribution for the incidence of inefficiency within an industry based on a random sample of dea outcomes and a prior distribution on that incidence the approach applies to the empirically relevant case of a finite number of firms and to sampling dmus without replacement it also accounts for potential mismeasurement in the dea characterization of inefficiency within a coherent bayesian approach to the problem using three different types of specialty physician practices we provide an empirical illustration demonstrating that this approach provides appropriately adjusted inferences regarding the incidence of inefficiency within an industry

degree of scale economies and congestion a unified dea approach abstract there are increasing concerns about how increase in congestion can adversely affect output as well as about the relative benefit cost ratio or return on investment associated with alternative projects or policies to address those problems regardless of what policy strategies are used to address congestion the fact remains that we cannot assess the economic benefits of congestion reduction strategies unless we are able to measure the extent to which congestion affects productivity in general and scale economies in particular this paper makes a novel attempt to suggest a method in a non parametric framework to measure scale elasticity in production in the presence of congestion

inequality and violent crime abstract we investigate the robustness and causality of the link between income inequality and violent crime across countries first we study the correlation between the gini index and homicide and robbery rates within and between countries second we examine the partial correlation by considering other crime determinants third we control for the endogeneity of inequality by isolating its exogenous impact on these crime rates fourth we control for measurement error in crime rates by modeling it as both unobserved country effects and random noise finally we examine the robustness of this partial correlation to alternative measures of inequality the panel data consist of nonoverlapping 5 year averages for 39 countries during 1965 95 for homicides and 37 countries during 1970 94 for robberies crime rates and inequality are positively correlated within countries and particularly between countries and this correlation reflects causation from inequality to crime rates even after controlling for ot

endogenous trade policy through majority voting an empirical investigation abstract the median voter approach to trade policy determination within a heckscher ohlin framework as in mayer am econ rev 74 5 1984 970 predicts that an increase in inequality holding constant the economy s overall relative endowments raises trade barriers in capital abundant economies and lowers them in capital scarce economies we find support for this prediction using cross country data on inequality capital abundance and diverse measures of protection we perform certain robustness checks that include controlling for the effects of political rights and schooling as well as using alternative datasets on factor endowments

some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis in management contexts mathematical programming is usually used to evaluate a collection of possible alternative courses of action en route to selecting one which is best in this capacity mathematical programming serves as a planning aid to management data envelopment analysis reverses this role and employs mathematical programming to obtain ex post facto evaluations of the relative efficiency of management accomplishments however they may have been planned or executed mathematical programming is thereby extended for use as a tool for control and evaluation of past accomplishments as well as a tool to aid in planning future activities the ccr ratio form introduced by charnes cooper and rhodes as part of their data envelopment analysis approach comprehends both technical and scale inefficiencies via the optimal value of the ratio form as obtained directly from the data without requiring a priori specification of weights and or explicit delineation of assumed functional forms of relations between inputs and outputs a separation into technical and scale efficiencies is accomplished by the methods developed in this paper without altering the latter conditions for use of dea directly on observational data technical inefficiencies are identified with failures to achieve best possible output levels and or usage of excessive amounts of inputs methods for identifying and correcting the magnitudes of these inefficiencies as supplied in prior work are illustrated in the present paper a new separate variable is introduced which makes it possible to determine whether operations were conducted in regions of increasing constant or decreasing returns to scale in multiple input and multiple output situations the results are discussed and related not only to classical single output economics but also to more modern versions of economics which are identified with contestable market theories

intrahousehold allocation of free and purchased mosquito nets for some health goods intrahousehold allocation may be more important in determining outcomes than household level consumption an example is the use of mosquito nets to prevent malaria malaria kills over one million people annually 90 percent of them children under the age of five the use of insecticide treated mosquito nets itns is considered the most costeffective available strategy for control of the disease in 2000 44 of the 50 malaria affected countries in africa committed themselves to increasing the use of itns by vulnerable populations in particular children under five years of age and pregnant women adults in malarious regions have typically acquired some immunity to the disease through repeated exposure over the course of their lives the risk of severe malaria resulting in lifelong disability or death is highest for young children and pregnant women across transmission environments robert w snow et al 2003 on the other hand lost labor time often accounts for the largest portion of the private cost of the disease this implies a trade off between minimizing the income lost to malaria and minimizing the risk that a household member dies or is permanently disabled despite public health messages emphasizing the importance of using mosquito nets to protect young children from malaria nets are often used by adults when a household does not have enough nets to cover all members eline l korenromp et al 2003 frederick mugisha and jacqueline arinaitwe 2003 determining the welfare maximizing allocation of nets is intrahousehold allocation of free and purchased mosquito nets

a ranked voting system using a dea ar exclusion model a note abstract this paper addresses ranked voting systems to determine an ordering of candidates in terms of the aggregate vote by rank for each candidate it is shown that specifying nothing arbitrary we can obtain a total ordering of candidates by using a dea ar data envelopment analysis assurance region exclusion model explaining the evaluation criterion used to rank candidates it is concluded that we may consider the system proposed at least as an alternative to determine an ordering of candidates

prevention or treatment the case of malaria we present a simple theoretical model of household preventive behavior in response to malaria prevalence the novelty is to include a trade off between prevention and treatment in an otherwise standard epidemiological model of disease transmission which depends on the relative price of treatment with respect to prevention a relatively low price of treatment reduces prevention

what accounts for the decline in crime in this article we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the united states we propose a dynamic equilibrium model that guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime our main findings can be summarized as follows first the model is capable of reproducing the drop in crime between 1980 and 1996 second the most important factors that account for the observed decline in property crime are the higher apprehension probability the stronger economy and the aging of the population third the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible fourth the increased inequality prevented an even larger decline in crime overall our analysis can account for the behavior of the time series of property crime rates over the past quarter century

international commodity prices growth and the outbreak of civil war in sub saharan africa to learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war we examine whether sub saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries main export commodities the data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars we also find that sub saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main oecd export destinations

alternative measures of environmental technology structure in dea an application abstract the nonparametric data envelopment analysis dea literature on environmental efficiency ee considers handling undesirable outputs in two alternative ways either in their original forms with the assumption that these are weakly disposable or in various translated forms with the assumption that these are strongly disposable choosing a particular approach implies adoption of a particular distinct treatment of undesirable outputs and hence yields a distinct set of ee estimates to explore the effects of the interplay between choice of ee measure and specific treatment of undesirable outputs this paper attempts to generate all possible output oriented ee measures based on these two alternative approaches furthermore guided by the argument that slacks are important in identifying properly the efficiency behavior of firms it proposes two new alternative slacks based formulations of ee one based on the range directional model and the other on the generalized proportional distance function model using a confected data set of ten firms and a real life data set of 22 oecd countries our empirical analysis reveals that first ee scores are influenced not only by the choice of disposability assumption for undesirable outputs but also by the way these are treated in various translated forms second the choice of any particular treatment of undesirable outputs plays no role in influencing the rankings of firms and third our two new alternative ee formulations are at the least viable alternatives to existing ee measures in ranking firms according to their eco efficiency behavior

traders cops and robbers abstract we propose a simple model of trade outside the law preyed on by robbers and possibly protected by private cops we establish the conditions for trade collapse secure trade and insecure trade endogenous predation and enforcement can explain both puzzling failures of commonly observed state policies against illegal trade and puzzlingly large trade responses to liberalization in licit goods

development crime and punishment accounting for the international differences in crime rates abstract this paper analyzes the determinants of the heterogeneity in crime rates across countries focusing on reporting rates and development the behavior of the reporting rate is studied by comparing data from victimization surveys to official records reporting rates are strongly correlated with development richer countries report a higher fraction of crimes the positive relation between development and crime found in previous studies is shown to result from this correlation once the presence of the reporting error is accounted for development does not affect crime reductions in inequality and increases in growth and education are associated with reductions in crime rates

crime and victimization an economic perspective the recent upward trend in crime rates of developing countries has spurred widespread public concern about personal and proprietary insecurity in some countries the questions of crime violence and victimization are attracting more attention from academics and policy makers than traditional economic problems the objective of this paper is to examine the main issues related to crime and victimization from an economic perspective for this purpose the paper combines a review of the main results established in the literature with original research on the causes of crime and the risk factors of victimization the first section provides a review of the estimates of the costs of crime the main theoretical and empirical research on its causes and the relative advantages of official and survey data on crime the second section presents original work on the main causes of violent crime from a cross country perspective the empirical work starts with a basic model of the economic determinants of homicide and robbery rates in turn this empirical model is extended along five dimensions 1 deterrence factors 2 illegal drug related activities 3 demographic issues 4 income and ethnic polarization and 5 social capital the third section reviews recent case studies of latin american cities that rely on survey data to assess the empirical determinants of the probability of victimization these studies focus on three types of risk factors 1 individual characteristics 2 household characteristics and 3 community characteristics the main conclusions from the previous sections are summarized in section four

an alternative approach to monetary aggregation in dea this paper proposes a set of alternative dea based money indices that are proved to be both theoretically and empirically competing monetary aggregates since they perform as good as the divisia aggregates based on all the results concerning causality forecasting and money demand we conclude that dea money aggregates prove to be at least competing alternatives to the divisia aggregates and hence suggest that these new aggregates may be considered along with the existing weighted monetary aggregates like the divisia ones given the inherent benefit of the doubt weighting mechanism underlying the dea models where the optimal weight assigned by dea to each monetary asset reflects the ongoing financial innovation and the reserve bank of india s policy priority in the distribution of total liquidity we feel that the dea money indices can truly capture the liquidity better with ongoing financial innovations in the economy

the menu setting problem and subsidized prices drug formulary illustration the menu setting problem msp determines the goods and services an institution offers and the prices charged it appears widely in health care from choosing the services an insurance arrangement offers to selecting the health plans an employer proffers the challenge arises because purchases are subsidized and consumers or their physician agents may make cost ineffective choices the intuitively comprehensible msp model readily solved by computer using actual data helps structure thinking and support decision making about such problems the analysis uses drug formularies lists of approved drugs in a plan or institution to illustrate the framework

can higher prices stimulate product use evidence from a field experiment in zambia the controversy over how much to charge for health products in the developing world rests in part on whether higher prices can increase use either by targeting distribution to high use households a screening effect or by stimulating use psychologically through a sunk cost effect we develop a methodology for separating these two effects we implement the methodology in a field experiment in zambia using door to door marketing of a home water purification solution we find evidence of economically important screening effects by contrast we find no consistent evidence of sunk cost effects jel c93 d12 i11 m31 o12

crime and social interactions the high variance of crime rates across time and space is one of the oldest puzzles in the social sciences this variance appears too high to be explained by changes in the exogenous costs and benefits of crime we present a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross city variance of crime rates this model provides an index of social interactions which suggests that the amount of social interactions is highest in petty crimes moderate in more serious crimes and almost negligible in murder and rape

social multi criteria evaluation methodological foundations and operational consequences in order to address contemporary issues economics and decision sciences need to expand their empirical relevance by introducing more and more realistic thus more complex assumptions in their models one of the most interesting research directions in the field of public economics is the attempt to introduce political constraints interest groups and collusion effects explicitly j j laffont incentives and political economy 2000 the main argument developed here is the proposal of the concept of social multi criteria evaluation smce as a possible useful framework for the application of social choice to the difficult policy problems of our millennium where as stated by funtowicz and ravetz facts are uncertain values in dispute stakes high and decisions urgent this paper starts from the following main questions 1 why social multi criteria evaluation 2 how should such an approach be developed the foundations of smce are set up by referring to concepts from complex system theory and philosophy such as reflexive complexity post normal science and incommensurability to give some operational guidelines on the application of smce basic questions to be answered are 1 how is it possible to deal with technical incommensurability 2 how can we deal with the issue of social incommensurability to answer these questions using theoretical considerations and lessons learned from real world case studies is the main objective of the present article

measuring macroeconomic performance in the oecd a comparison of european and non european countries abstract we study the macroeconomic performance of 19 oecd countries over the period 1970 1990 performance is defined in terms of the ability of a country s macroeconomic managers to provide four services to their citizens a high level of real gdp per capita a low rate of inflation a low rate of unemployment and a favorable trade balance we use linear programming techniques to construct a best practice macroeconomic performance frontier and to measure the performance of each country in each year relative to the frontier we then add two environmental disamenities carbon and nitrogen emissions to the service list and repeat the analysis to see if the performance rankings change throughout the analysis emphasis is placed on a comparison of the performance of 14 european oecd countries with that of five non european oecd countries we find that performance rankings do change and that the relative performance of the european countries declines when the environmental disamenities are added to the service list

does globalisation affect crime theory and evidence globalization skeptics argue that trade liberalization has high social costs including an increase in expropriative behavior such as civil conflict coercion of labor and crime we show that a theoretical relationship between trade and expropriation exists but the sign differs for developed and developing economies we verify this empirically using data on crime rates specifically we find trade liberalization as measured by both higher openness and lower import duty rates tends to increase burglaries and theft in very labor abundant countries for other countries however we find that trade liberalization has either a small negative effect on crime or no effect depending on the country s capital abundance

on the political economy of income redistribution and crime this article analyzes a general equilibrium model in which agents choose to specialize in either legitimate or criminal activities expenditures on police to apprehend criminals as well as income redistribution are determined endogenously through majority voting we investigate how crime redistribution and police expenditures depend on characteristics of the underlying distribution of income earning abilities and on the apprehension technology our model accounts for the positive correlation between inequality and crime the positive correlation between expenditures on police and redistribution and the lack of correlation between crime and redistribution observed in u s data

anarchy and autarky endogenous predation as a barrier to trade this article presents a general equilibrium two country ricardian trade model with endogenous transactions costs that arise from individual utility maximizing allocation of labor to production and piracy in the absence of institutions for risk sharing and coordination of defense autarky obtains over most of the parameter space when both trade and predation are supported in equilibrium terms of trade effects can make security immiserizing in that case paradoxically predation creates trade

semi non parametric estimates of substitution for canadian monetary assets we estimate the dynamic fourier expenditure system to obtain consistent estimates of short run and long run morishima elasticities of substitution for canadian liquid assets we argue that the variability of the estimated elasticities and evidence of less than perfect substitution between monetary assets interferes with the successful use of simple sum aggre gates and traditional log linear money demand functions

radial and non radial decompositions of profit change with an application to indian banking abstract grifell tatje and lovell grifell tatje e lovell c a k 1999 profits and productivity management science 45 1177 1193 made significant contributions to the literature on the extended radial dea framework by decomposing profit change into six mutually exclusive components their approach however poses two basic problems first the radial estimates on these components might give conflicting signals about the direction of profit change after the full radial efficiencies are achieved when slacks are present second evaluations of these components using base period prices as weights can be potentially misleading to address these concerns we first introduce non radial dea models and then provide a few strong theoretical arguments in favor of using as weights either current period prices or an average price covering both periods to value the contributions of each of these components the indian banking sector is taken as a case study to illustrate the radial and non radial decompositions of profit change so as to empirically examine the role of competition on profit change and its drivers our broad empirical results are as follows first radial and non radial models yield diametrically opposite results on the contributions of various components second the increasing efficiency change trends in all ownership groups after 2002 indicate that the government reform process instituted on the banking industry has had a favorable effect on the performance of the indian banking sector third despite the fact that nationalized banks are the oldest banks their output and resource allocation behaviors do not reflect their learning experience

spring cleaning rural water impacts valuation and property rights institutions the brief summarizes the spring cleaning rural water impacts valuation and property rights institutions the first two rounds of spring protection occurred in january april 2005 and august november 2005 the author measure health impacts of spring protection an investment that improves source water quality the author also estimate households valuation of spring protection and simulate the welfare impacts of alternatives to the current system of common property rights in water which limits incentives for private investment spring infrastructure investments reduce fecal contamination by 66 percent but household water quality improves less due to recontamination child diarrhea falls by one quarter travel cost based revealed preference estimates of households valuations are much smaller than both stated preference valuations and health planners valuations and are consistent with models in which the demand for health is highly income elastic the author estimate that private property norms would generate little additional investment while imposing large static costs due to above marginal cost pricing private property will function better at higher income levels or underwater scarcity and alternative institutions could yield pareto improvements

eliciting and utilizing willingness to pay evidence from field trials in northern ghana we utilize the becker degroot marschak 1964 mechanism to estimate the willingness to pay for clean drinking water technology in northern ghana the bdm mechanism has attractive properties for empirical research allowing us to directly estimate demand compute heterogeneous treatment effects and study the screening and causal effects of prices with minor modifications to a standard field experiment setting we demonstrate the implementation of bdm along these three dimensions compare it to the standard take it or leave it method for eliciting willingness to pay and discuss practical issues for implementing the mechanism in true field settings jel classifications c93 d12 d82 l11 l31

international trade and unemployment theory and cross national evidence abstract we present a model of trade and search induced unemployment where trade results from heckscher ohlin h o and or ricardian comparative advantage using cross country data on trade policy unemployment and various controls and controlling for endogeneity and measurement error problems we find fairly strong and robust evidence for the ricardian prediction that unemployment and trade openness are negatively related this effect dominates the positive h o effect of trade openness on unemployment for capital abundant countries which turns negative for labor abundant countries using panel data we find an unemployment increasing short run impact of trade liberalization followed by an unemployment reducing effect leading to the new steady state

tax subsidy policies toward vector borne infectious diseases abstract vector borne diseases especially rife in poor countries pose sectoral tax subsidy issues preventions and therapies mitigate these diseases in a numerical optimization model combining dynamic epidemiology and economics the medical distinction between prevention and therapy does not distinguish economic properties of preventions and therapies some interventions increase and others decrease moving to the steady state depending on the utility function the targeting of interventions and the disease process interventions display negative own price but indeterminate cross price effects juxtaposing the social planner s with decentralized choices quantifies externalities and shows how subsidies implement the first best one prevention and the therapy are equally subsidized

dynamic environmental performance analysis a malmquist index approach abstract this article presents a general framework for dynamic environmental performance analysis by generalizing the approach proposed by kuosmanen and kortelainen kuosmanen t kortelainen m 2005 measuring eco efficiency of production with data envelopment analysis journal of industrial ecology 9 4 59 72 from a static to a dynamic setting for this purpose we construct an environmental performance index epi by applying frontier efficiency techniques and a malmquist index approach compared to other dynamic environmental productivity and efficiency analysis approaches based on these methods our approach builds on the standard definition of eco efficiency as it is presented in the ecological economics literature recognizing the importance to analyze the sources of environmental performance changes we show how changes in overall environmental performance can be decomposed into changes in relative eco efficiency and shifts in environmental technology respectively we apply the presented technique at the macro level to dynamic environmental performance analysis of 20 member states of the european union in 1990 2003 according to the results environmental technical change mostly explains the improvement in overall environmental performance while relative eco efficiency change has been minor for most countries during the sample period

workers warriors and criminals social conflict in general equilibrium we incorporate appropriation activities social conflict into canonical models of trade and study how economic shocks and policies affect the intensity of conflict we show that not all shocks that could make society richer reduce conflict positive shocks to labor intensive industries diminish conflict while positive shocks to capital intensive industries increase it the key requirement is that conflict activities be more labor intensive than the economy as this determines how shocks affect the returns and costs of conflict our theory is consistent with several observed patterns of conflict and implies that empirical work should take into account the relative factor intensities of the productive and conflict sectors in each country incorporating appropriation into a canonic general equilibrium model affects what policies may be deemed desirable in order to reduce conflict and generate pareto improvements policy must be distortionary while reforms that appear efficiency enhancing under the unrealistic assumption of perfect property rights may backfire this offers one explanation for why reforms based on traditional models without appropriation may be delayed and become unpopular when implemented and why societies may sympathize with seemingly inefficient redistribution

radial dea models without inputs or without outputs in this paper we consider radial dea models without inputs or without outputs and radial dea models with a single constant input or with a single constant output we demonstrate that i a ccr model without inputs or without outputs is meaningless ii a ccr model with a single constant input or with a single constant output coincides with the corresponding bcc model iii a bcc model with a single constant input or a single constant output collapses to a bcc model without inputs or without outputs and iv all bcc models including those without inputs or without outputs can be condensed to models having one less variable the radial efficiency score and one less constraint the convexity constraint

targeting transfers through restrictions on recipients our objective is to design transfer programs that maximize some social welfare function following the optimal income tax formulation we assume that a random process endows individuals with characteristics that influence welfare such as ability to earn income medical condition or unmonitorable income the goal is to maximize the utility of a randomly chosen individual other individualistic social welfare functions would lead to equivalent results if the random characteristics were observable a first best outcome could be achieved by making them the basis for lump sum transfers in practice however we can observe only indicators of these characteristics such as earnings medical expenditures or consumption patterns the challenge for policy is to design an efficient second best transfer program based on indicators in this paper we argue that 1 an optimal transfer program in general must sacrifice productive efficiency to target efficiency this is done by imposing restrictions on the choices made by intended beneficiaries 2 a program that incorporates restrictions such as means tested in kind transfers commodity specific taxes and subsidies and even ordeals i e the imposition of deadweight costs to qualify for a transfer will perform better than programs that rely solely on income taxes and cash transfers

using data envelopment analysis to assess macroeconomic policy performance it is common practice to summarize the macroeconomic performance of countries in terms of the four well known dimensions captured by the magic diamond of the oecd this study provides a comparison of several synthetic indicators that merge the four separate indicators into one single statistic these indicators are inspired by data envelopment analysis dea based models which allow for unequal weighting of the different economic objectives the calculated weights then act as proxies for the true policy priorities comparison of the models focuses on the underlying assumptions as well as on the empirical results they generate

does capital punishment deter white collar crimes this paper examines whether capital punishment either directly or via a spillover effect has a deterrent effect on white collar crimes using data on nearly 150 nations and various dimensions of capital punishment including capital punishment for non violent crimes we consider two widely prevalent white collar crimes corruption and the shadow economy nesting the empirical analysis in the broader literature on determinants of corruption and the shadow economy we find that capital punishment in general reduced both corruption and the shadow economy and the deterrent effect on the shadow economy was relatively more prevalent adding some empirical insights to the theoretical arguments surrounding the desirability of maximal punishments results show some trade off between the quantity and quality of punishment

the optimal level of monetary aggregation in this paper i have three objectives 1 to describe the aggregation theoretic procedure for selecting the optimal monetary aggregates 2 to survey the available empirical evidence for information on the optimal aggregates and 3 to describe the procedures that should be followed to complete a redefinition of the monetary aggregates although all of the federal reserve board s current official aggregates are rejected as targets some newer aggregates are found to be substantially preferable to the official aggregates the board s staff recently completed the official redefinition of its monetary aggregates in a manner largely unrelated to aggregation and index number theory my own research in recent years has sought to remedy that shortcoming except for monetary aggregates most of the data provided by governmental agencies are constructed in accordance with aggregation and index number theory since aggregation theory can be applied to monetary aggregation 1 i constructed new monetary aggregates that are consistent with the economic theory 2 recently the empiri

micro loans insecticide treated bednets and malaria evidence from a randomized controlled trial in orissa india we describe findings from the first large scale cluster randomized controlled trial in a developing country that evaluates the uptake of a health protecting technology insecticide treated bednets itns through micro consumer loans as compared to free distribution and control conditions despite a relatively high price 52 percent of sample households purchased itns highlighting the role of liquidity constraints in explaining earlier low adoption rates we find mixed evidence of improvements in malaria indices we interpret the results and their implications within the debate about cost sharing sustainability and liquidity constraints in public health initiatives in developing countries

money and its substitutes abstract measurement of the elasticity of substitution between financial assets is an important element in evaluating the role that those assets play in the economy this paper generalizes the model developed by chetty by relaxing the separability conditions while restoring homotheticity to the utility function the general model is found to produce empirical estimates that are statistically superior to the original while substantially reducing the estimated elasticities of substitution consequently the various types of savings accounts no longer appear to be very close substitutes for money balances

price subsidies diagnostic tests and targeting of malaria treatment evidence from a randomized controlled trial author s dupas pascaline cohen jessica schaner simone abstract both under and over treatment of communicable diseases are public bads but efforts to decrease one run the risk of increasing the other using rich experimental data on household treatment seeking behavior in kenya we study the implications of this tradeoff for subsidizing life saving antimalarials sold over the counter at retail drug outlets we show that a very high subsidy such as the one under consideration by the international community dramatically increases access but nearly half of subsidized pills go to patients without malaria we study two ways to better target subsidized drugs reducing the subsidy level and introducing rapid malaria tests over the counter

a data envelopment model for aggregating preference rankings this paper presents a general model for aggregating votes from a preferential ballot the thrust of the model is to accord each candidate a fair assessment in terms of his overall standing vis a vis first place second place kth place votes the form of the model is a combined index j 1kwjvij where vij is the number of the jth place votes received by the ith candidate the weights wj are assumed to form a monotonically decreasing sequence with wj wj 1 dj e these constraints correspond to the assurance region ar side constraints in the dea framework the properties of the model are examined in terms of this discrimination intensity function d and in the special case that dj e e our model is shown to be equivalent to the consensus models of borda and kendall

free distribution or cost sharing evidence from a randomized malaria prevention experiment author s cohen jessica dupas pascaline abstract it is often argued that cost sharing charging a subsidized positive price for a health product is necessary to avoid wasting resources on those who will not use or do not need the product we explore this argument through a field experiment in kenya in which we randomized the price at which prenatal clinics could sell long lasting anti malarial insecticide treated nets itns to pregnant women we find no evidence that costsharing reduces wastage on those that will not use the product women who received free itns are not less likely to use them than those who paid subsidized positive prices we also find no evidence that costsharing induces selection of women who need the net more those who pay higher prices appear no sicker than the average prenatal client in the area in terms of measured anemia an important indicator of malaria cost sharing does however considerably dampen demand we find that uptake drops by 75 percent when the price of itns increases from zero to 0 75 i e from 100 to 87 5 percent subsidy the price at which itns are currently sold to pregnant women in kenya we combine our estimates in a cost effectiveness analysis of itn prices on child mortality that incorporates both private and social returns to itn usage overall our results suggest that free distribution of itns could save many more lives than cost sharing programs have achieved so far and given the large positive externality associated with widespread usage of itns it would likely do so at a lesser cost per life saved

short run subsidies and long run adoption of new health products evidence from a field experiment short run subsidies for health products are common in poor countries how do they affect long run adoption a common fear among development practitioners is that one off subsidies may negatively affect long run adoption through reference dependence people might anchor around the subsidized price and be unwilling to pay more for the product later but for experience goods one off subsidies could also boost long run adoption through learning this paper uses data from a two stage randomized pricing experiment in kenya to estimate the relative importance of these effects for a new improved antimalarial bed net reduced form estimates show that a one time subsidy has a positive impact on willingness to pay a year later inherit to separately identify the learning and anchoring effects we estimate a parsimonious experience good model estimation results show a large positive learning effect but no anchoring we black then discuss the types of products and the contexts inherit for which these results may apply

the predictive power of the business and bank sentiment of firms a high dimensional granger causality approach we study the predictive power of industry specific economic sentiment indicators for future macro economic developments in addition to the sentiment of firms towards their own business situation we study their sentiment with respect to the banking sector their main credit providers the use of industry specific sentiment indicators results in a high dimensional forecasting problem to identify the most predictive industries we present a bootstrap granger causality test based on the adaptive lasso this test is more powerful than the standard wald test in such high dimensional settings forecast accuracy is improved by using only the most predictive industries rather than all industries

learning misallocation and technology adoption evidence from new malaria therapy in tanzania i study how the misallocation of new technology to individuals who have low ex post returns to its use affects learning and adoption behavior i focus on antimalarial treatment which is frequently over prescribed in many low income country contexts where diagnostic tests are inaccessible i show that misdiagnosis reduces average therapeutic effectiveness because only a fraction of adopters actually have malaria and slows the rate of social learning due to increased noise i use data on adoption choices the timing and duration of fever episodes and individual blood slide confirmations of malarial status from a pilot study for a new malaria therapy in tanzania to show that individuals whose reference groups experienced fewer misdiagnoses exhibited stronger learning effects and were more likely to adopt

measuring the macroeconomic performance of the taiwanese economy abstract in this paper i construct a scalar valued summary measure of the macroeconomic performance of an economy the measure combines any number of conventional but noncommensurate performance indicators the basic idea behind the procedure is to use mathematical programming techniques of efficiency measurement to construct a best practice macroeconomic performance frontier and then to measure performance in terms of an indicator based efficiency score the procedure is applied to a set of ten asian economies over the past two decades with special attention paid to taiwan

decomposing capacity utilization in data envelopment analysis an application to banks in india abstract this paper briefly reviews the existing methods of capacity utilization in nonparametric framework from economic perspectives and then suggests an alternative in the light of limitations therein in the spirit of work by coelli et al coelli t j grifell tatje e perelman s 2002 capacity utilisation and profitability a decomposition of short run profit efficiency international journal of production economics 79 261 278 we propose two methods radial and non radial to decompose the input based physical technological capacity utilization into various meaningful components viz technical inefficiency ray economic capacity utilization and optimal capacity idleness a case study of indian banking industry is taken as an example to illustrate the potential application of these two methods of decomposition our two broad empirical findings are that first competition created after financial sector reforms generates high efficiency growth and reduces excess capacity second the cost gap of the short run cost from the actual cost is higher for the nationalized banks over the private banks indicating that the former banks though old do not reflect their learning experience in their cost minimizing behavior

crime and local inequality in south africa the authors examine the effects of local inequality on property and violent crime in south africa their findings are consistent with economic theories relating inequality to property crime and also with sociological theories that imply that inequality leads to crime in general burglary rates are 20 30 percent higher in police station jurisdictions that are the wealthiest among their neighbors suggesting that criminals travel to neighborhoods where the expected returns from burglary are highest the authors do not find evidence that inequality between racial groups fosters interpersonal conflict at the local level

cost revenue and profit efficiency measurement in dea a directional distance function approach abstract estimation of efficiency of firms in a non competitive market characterized by heterogeneous inputs and outputs along with their varying prices is questionable when factor based technology sets are used in data envelopment analysis dea in this scenario a value based technology becomes an appropriate reference technology against which efficiency can be assessed in this contribution the value based models of tone 2002 are extended in a directional dea set up to develop new directional cost and revenue based measures of efficiency which are then decomposed into their respective directional value based technical and allocative efficiencies these new directional value based measures are more general and include the existing value based measures as special cases these measures satisfy several desirable properties of an ideal efficiency measure these new measures are advantageous over the existing ones in terms of 1 their ability to satisfy the most important property of translation invariance 2 choices over the use of suitable direction vectors in handling negative data and 3 flexibility in providing the decision makers with the option of specifying preferable direction vectors to incorporate their preferences finally under the condition of no prior unit price information a directional value based measure of profit inefficiency is developed for firms whose underlying objectives are profit maximization for an illustrative empirical application our new measures are applied to a real life data set of 50 us banks to draw inferences about the production correspondence of banking industry

an economic approach to environmental indices abstract this study uses the directional output distance function from economic productivity theory as an alternative approach to environmental index construction we use the directional output distance function to aggregate multiple environmental objectives into one measure of environmental performance we apply this method to a set of watershed data and compare our results to the existing u s environmental protection agency epa index values when modeling the same set of objectives the directional output distance function and the existing epa index yield similar measures of environmental performance we discuss the mathematical properties of both indices using the axioms of economic index theory and explore the possible advantages to our approach the mathematical properties of the directional output distance function are well established and this approach provides a nonparametric way to aggregate individual characteristics this advances the standard use of a priori weighted summation and circumvents the often contentious selection of index weights