tourism demand forecasting models choice of appropriate variable to represent tourists cost of living abstract price is generally regarded as a major determinant of demand tourism has two price elements the cost of travel to the destination and the cost of living for tourists in the destination previous studies where econometric forecasting models have been developed for international tourism demand usually take the consumer price index in a country to be a proxy for the cost of tourism in that country owing to lack of appropriate data this article attempts to evaluate the performance of proxy variables compared with a specific tourists cost of living variable within the context of tourism demand forecasting models

downward nominal wage rigidity and state dependent government spending multipliers abstract despite much empirical evidence on business cycle dependent government spending multipliers the theoretical channels underlying such results are uncertain in an environment with involuntary unemployment this paper shows that downward nominal wage rigidity which arises only in recessions can generate business cycle dependent government spending multipliers in line with keynesian views a demand stimulus reduces unemployment in recessions and may not drive up inflation and wages as in expansions thus the positive income effects from reduced unemployment and weaker crowding out effects from a smaller increase in the real interest rate enhance the expansionary spending effects in recessions the theoretical implications are largely consistent with existing empirical evidence on business cycle dependent government spending effects on key macroeconomic variables

persistent media bias abstract the news media plays an essential role in society but surveys indicate that the public views the media as biased this paper presents a theory of media bias that originates with private information obtained by journalists through their investigations and persists despite profit maximizing news organizations and rivalry from other news organizations bias has two effects on the demand for news first rational individuals are more skeptical of potentially biased news and thus rely less on it in their decision making this skepticism reduces demand and leads the news organization to set a lower price for its publication the greater is the bias it tolerates lower quality news thus commands a lower price second bias makes certain stories more likely than others given their private information journalists may bias their stories if their career prospects can be advanced by being published on the front page news organizations can control bias by restricting the discretion allowed to journalists but granting discretion and tolerating bias can increase profits if it allows journalists to be hired at a lower wage bias is not driven from the market by a rival news organization nor by a news organization with an opposing bias and the profits of a high bias news organization can be higher than the profits of a low bias one moreover bias can be greater with competition than with a monopoly news organization if individuals collectively choose regulation in place of their individual decision making bias increases the expected stringency of regulation

household welfare and co2 emission impacts of energy and carbon taxes in mexico abstract we analyse the effects of environmental taxes on welfare and carbon emissions at the household level for the case of mexico the integrated welfare environmental analysis which is based on a censored energy consumer demand system extends previous work in two ways first the estimation of a full matrix of substitution elasticities allows us to test the necessity of incorporating second order effects into the welfare analysis second the substitution elasticities derived from the demand system are used to estimate the shortrun co2 emission reduction potential we find that first order approximations of welfare effects provide reasonable estimates particularly for carbon taxes analog to evidence in other low and middle income countries the taxation of all energy items is found to be regressive with the exception of motor fuels the analysis of the emission implications of different tax scenarios indicates that short run emission reductions at the household level can be substantial though the effects depend on how revenue is recycled this effectiveness combined with moderate and manageable adverse distributional impacts renders the carbon tax a preferred mitigation instrument considering the large effect of food price increases on poverty and the limited additional emission saving potential the inclusion of ch4 and n2o in a carbon tax regime is not advisable

spillover effects in local public spending abstractthis paper investigated the fiscal interactions between italian municipalities over the period 2001 11 and found a positive horizontal interdependence in spending decisions the results are robust to different specifications of the spatial neighbours and are confirmed by a natural experiment an earthquake in the abruzzo region of italy in 2009 that creates an exogenous variation in the neighbours spending furthermore there is no evidence of yardstick competition when one considers political effects while a negative relationship is found between spatial interaction and the size of the municipality thus it can be concluded that spillover effects drive the strategic interactions in spending decisions

unconventional energy taxation and interstate welfare an analysis of pennsylvania s severance tax policy abstract natural gas production from unconventional sources has increased over the past decade a significant portion of this increase has come from output in the marcellus region of pennsylvania this output has altered gas markets and repositioned pennsylvania as a major gas exporter it has also put pennsylvania at odds with other states as it is one of a few without a formal severance tax on extractive resources in this paper we combine results from a structural demand model with a two sector trade model to analyze the interstate welfare impacts of pennsylvania s current severance tax proposal our results demonstrate that most of the welfare losses from this proposed policy are likely to be shifted to residents in other states we also demonstrate how fluctuations in gas prices can substantially reduce tax revenue these findings have important implications for both pennsylvania and u s energy policy given the significant rise in energy production from new sources throughout the u s

the effects of energy price technology and disaster shocks on china s energy environment economy system abstract this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model to analyze the effects of energy price technology and disaster shocks on china s energy environment economy 3e system it also studies stylized facts as well as co integration and error correction dynamic analyses of this system the disaster shock is modeled as a two state markov switching process the results show that both technology and energy price shocks increase the ratio of environmental investment to gdp the improvement in technology and rising energy prices helps to reduce co2 pollution and improve economic restructuring among the three kinds of shocks technology shock is the most important the robustness of the model is tested through statistical methods

does electoral accountability affect economic policy choices evidence from gubernatorial term limits this paper analyzes the behavior of u s governors from 1950 to 1986 to investigate a reputation building model of political behavior we argue that differences in the behavior of governors who face a binding term limit and those who are able to run again provides a source of variation in discount rates that can be used to test a political agency model we find evidence that taxes spending and other policy instruments respond to a binding term limit if a democrat is in office the result is a fiscal cycle in term limit states which lowers state income when the term limit binds

environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new keynesian model this paper studies the dynamic behavior of an economy under different environmental policy regimes in a new keynesian model with nominal and real uncertainty we find the following results i an emissions cap policy is likely to dampen macroeconomic fluctuations ii staggered price adjustment alters significantly the performance of the environmental policy regime put in place iii the optimal environmental policy response to shocks is strongly influenced by the degree to which prices adjust and by the monetary policy reaction

environmental expenditure spillovers evidence from an estimated multi area dsge model abstract this article constructs and estimates a multi area dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a spatial simultaneous equation taking beijing tianjin hebei region in china as an example we explain the dynamic effect of environmental expenditure shock and its spillover effects environmental expenditure has an obvious crowding out effect on consumption and investment in local area but has some positive influences on the economy of external regions over the business cycle environmental expenditure shock in local area can well explain the volatility of real output and social investment in the last 52 quarters however environmental expenditure shocks in external regions have little contribution to the volatility of output and investment in local area one interesting result is that the contribution of environmental expenditure shocks in external regions to the trend of pollution fluctuation is greater than that in local area

the role of energy prices in the great recession a two sector model with unfiltered data we investigate the role of energy shocks during the great recession we study the behaviour of the uk energy and non energy intensive sectors firms in a real business cycle rbc model using unfiltered data the model is econometrically estimated and tested by indirect inference output contraction during the great recession was largely caused by energy price and sector specific productivity shocks all of which are non stationary and hence tend to dominate the sample variance decomposition we also found that the channel by which the energy price shock reduces output in the model is via the terms of trade these fall permanently when world energy prices increase and as substitutes for energy inputs are strictly limited there are few reactions via production channels therefore there is no other way to balance the deteriorating current account than through lower domestic absorption

how population and energy price affect china s environmental pollution abstract this paper examines the impact of population and energy price on china s environmental pollution through both industrial and residential channels our theoretical models reveal that the influences of population on environmental pollution are contingent on wage stickiness and wage elasticity we also predict that environment pollution decreases with rising energy price but downward energy price distortion intensifies environmental pollution we test these hypotheses using panel data of 30 chinese provinces from 2001 to 2016 and employing both constant coefficient and time varying coefficient panel data models to conduct analyses our empirical results show that population growth increased urbanization and energy price distortion all intensify environmental pollution while population aging and rising energy price tend to alleviate environmental pollution our results also reveal significant regional and time heterogeneity on the impact of population factors and energy price on china s environmental pollution

expenditure spillovers and fiscal interactions empirical evidence from local governments in spain abstract the paper presents a framework for measuring spillovers resulting from local expenditure policies we identify and test for two different types of expenditure spillovers i benefit spillovers arising from the provision of local public goods and ii crowding spillovers arising from the crowding of facilities by residents in neighboring jurisdictions benefit spillovers are accounted for by assuming that the representative resident enjoys the consumption of a local public good in both his own community and in those surrounding it crowding spillovers are included by considering that a locality s consumption level is influenced by the population living in the surrounding localities we estimate a reaction function with interactions between local governments occurring not only between expenditure levels but also between neighbors populations and expenditures the equation is estimated using data on more than 2500 spanish local governments for the year 1999 the results show that both types of spillovers are relevant

green bond and financial markets co movement diversification and price spillover effects abstract we examine co movement between the green bond and financial markets finding that the green bond market couples with corporate and treasury bond markets and weakly co moves with stock and energy commodity markets we also find that green bonds have negligible diversification benefits for investors in corporate and treasury markets whereas diversification benefits are sizeable for investors in stock and energy markets we further confirm that green bonds are affected by substantial price spillovers from corporate and treasury fixed income markets and that large price swings in stock and energy markets have a negligible impact on green bond prices

is the media liberal an indirect test using news magazine circulation many critics allege that the us national news media is biased in favour of liberal causes and democratic candidates the lack of an objective measure of news content ensures that such charges remain controversial i consider an indirect test for media bias if the national news media do exhibit a liberal bias consumption should be higher in liberal media markets ceteris paribus i examine determinants of circulation of the three major weekly news magazines across the us and find that newsweek and time have higher circulation in liberal markets while us news has higher circulation in conservative markets the evidence is consistent with a liberal bias for time and newsweek while us news may be relatively conservative but still left of centre or absolutely conservative

correlations and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies abstract in this paper multivariate garch models are used to model conditional correlations and to analyze the volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy companies and technology companies four different multivariate garch models bekk diagonal constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation are compared and contrasted the dynamic conditional correlation model is found to fit the data the best and generates results showing that the stock prices of clean energy companies correlate more highly with technology stock prices than with oil prices on average a 1 long position in clean energy companies can be hedged for 20 cents with a short position in the crude oil futures market

when can a news organization lead public opinion ideology versus market forces in decisions to make news do news organizations purposefullylead the public to support a particularideological agenda when debating thisquestion many analysts draw conclusionsfrom weak empirical evidence we introducea model that clarifies how a newsorganization s internal structure combineswith market forces to affect when it canlead public opinion we identify conditionsunder which liberal reporters orpolitically driven media magnates canachieve ideological goals we alsoilluminate important barriers that preventmany would be public opinion leaders fromever satisfying these conditions we showthat internal structure and market forcesare critical determinants of any newsorganization s power over public opinion

the market for news we investigate the market for news under two assumptions that readers hold beliefs which they like to see confirmed and that newspapers can slant stories toward these beliefs we show that on the topics where readers share common beliefs one should not expect accuracy even from competitive media competition results in lower prices but common slanting toward reader biases on topics where reader beliefs diverge such as politically divisive issues however newspapers segment the market and slant toward extreme positions yet in the aggregate a reader with access to all news sources could get an unbiased perspective generally speaking reader heterogeneity is more important for accuracy in media than competition per se

a system of equations model of uk tourism demand in neighbouring countries this paper uses a system of equations model to examine tourism demand during periods of destination country transition and integration into the wider international community the almost ideal demand system model is applied to the uk demand for tourism in the neighbouring destinations france spain and portugal spain and portugal are interesting cases as during the period under consideration they experienced a process of transition from economies with characteristics typical of developing countries only entering the world bank s industrialized countries classification in the 1980s the paper examines the evolution of tourism demand during these countries transition from developing to developed status consideration of france as a neighbouring destination also allows the behaviour of tourism demand to be compared between relatively rich and poor countries the results show the extent to which the cross country behaviour of demand becomes more or less similar over time with respect to changes in ex

who owns the media the authors examine patterns of media ownership in 97 countries around the world they find that almost universally the largest media firms are controlled by the government or by private families government ownership is more pervasive in broadcasting than in the printed media government ownership is generally associated with less press freedom fewer political and economic rights inferior governance and most conspicuously inferior social outcomes in education and health the adverse effects of government ownership on political and economic freedom are stronger for newspapers than for television the adverse effects of government ownership of the media do not appear to be restricted solely to instances of government monopoly the authors present a range of evidence on the adverse consequences of state ownership of the media state ownership of the media is often argued to be justified on behalf of the social needs of the disadvantaged but if their findings are correct increasing private ownership of the media through privatization or by encouraging the entry of privately owned media can advance a variety of political and economic goals especially those of meeting the social needs of the poor

crowding out or crowding in public and private investment in india abstract this paper contributes to the debate on the relationship between public and private investment in india along the following dimensions first acknowledging major structural changes that the indian economy has undergone in the past three decades we study whether public investment in recent years has become more or less complementary to private investment in comparison to the period before 1980 second we construct a novel data set of quarterly aggregate public and private investment in india over the period 1996 2015 using investment project data from the capex cmie database third embedding a theory driven long run relationship on the model we estimate a range of structural vector error correction models svecms to re examine the public and private investment relationship in india identification is achieved by decomposing shocks into those with transitory and permanent effects our results suggest that while public investment crowds out private investment in india over the period 1950 2012 the opposite is true when we restrict the sample to post 1980 or conduct a quarterly analysis since 1996 this change can likely be attributed to the policy reforms which started during the early 1980s and gained momentum after the 1991 crisis

the liberal media bias or customer preferences allegations of liberal bias against the national news media in the us remain very contentious conservative critics of the media argue biased news stems from liberal leaning journalists another explanation of alleged bias could be that liberals have a greater demand for news than moderates or conservatives so the media simply tailors its product to their customers i test whether liberals in the us have a greater demand for news by investigating the determinants of newspaper circulation across states and metropolitan areas i find mixed evidence for liberal demand circulation is higher in more liberal metropolitan areas but is independent of local political preferences across states

competitiveness of international tourism in taiwan us versus japanese visitors this paper intends to identify the factors determining the relative competitiveness of taiwan s international tourism among a group of seven east asian countries using data on visitors from the usa and japan the major message which emerged from this study is that there are sharp differences between factors affecting us visitors and japanese visitors specifically we found 1 the decline of taiwan s market share in japan has been mainly due to appreciation of nt dollars and changing preferences whereas they are not crucial factors in the us market 2 qualitative supply side factors indeed could have decisive influences on the market share however their effect is again origin dependent the open door policy of china is the only important determinant of taiwan s competitiveness in the us market while it has no impact on the japanese visitors