employment impacts of eu biofuels policy combining bottom up technology information and sectoral market simulations in an input output framework this paper analyses the employment consequences of policies aimed to support biofuels in the european union the promotion of biofuel use has been advocated as a means to promote the sustainable use of natural resources and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions originating from transport activities on the one hand and to reduce dependence on imported oil and thereby increase security of the european energy supply on the other hand the employment impacts of increasing biofuels shares are calculated by taking into account a set of elements comprising the demand for capital goods required to produce biofuels the additional demand for agricultural feedstock higher fuel prices or reduced household budget in the case of price subsidisation price effects ensuing from a hypothetical world oil price reduction linked to substitution in the eu market and price impacts on agro food commodities the calculations refer to scenarios for the year 2020 targets as set out by the recent renewable energy roadmap employment effects are assessed in an input output framework taking into account bottom up technology information to specify biofuels activities and linked to partial equilibrium models for the agricultural and energy sectors the simulations suggest that biofuels targets on the order of 10 15 could be achieved without adverse net employment effects

more mortgages lower growth in newly collected data on 46 economies over 1990 2011 we show that financial development since 1990 was mostly due to growth in credit to real estate and other asset markets which has a negative growth coefficient we also distinguish between growth effects of stocks and flows of credit we find positive growth effects for credit flows to nonfinancial business but not for mortgage and other asset market credit flows by accounting for the composition of credit stocks and for the effect of credit flows we explain the insignificant or negative growth effects of financial development in recent times what was true in the 1960s 1970s and 1980s when the field of empirical credit growth studies blossomed is no longer true in the 1990s and 2000s new bank lending is not primarily to nonfinancial business and financial development may no longer be good for growth these trends predate the 2008 crisis they prompt a rethink of the role of banks in the process of economic growth jel e44 o16 o40 c33

strikes and holdouts in wage bargaining theory and data we develop a private information model of union contract negotiations in which disputes signal a firm s willingness to pay previous models have assumed that all labor disputes take the form of a strike yet a prominent feature of u s collective bargaining is the holdout negotiations often continue without a strike after the contract has expired production continues with workers paid according to the expired contract we analyze the union s decision to strike or hold out and highlight its importance to strike activity strikes are more likely to occur after a drop in the real wage or a decline in unemployment

interrelationships among banks stock markets and economic growth an empirical investigation this article utilizes a simultaneous equations model to study the relationships among economic growth banking and stock market development in contrast to conventional instrumental variable approach we implement the analysis via the methodology of identification through heteroscedasticity using beck and levine 2004 dataset we find that each of the three variables interacts in important ways while both are conducive to economic growth banking development matters more for growth in low income countries and stock market development is more favourable to growth in high income or low inflation ones the data also reveal coexistence of a positive effect of banking development on stock market development and a negative effect of stock market development on banking development besides the feedback effects of growth on both banking and stock market development are found

what type of finance matters for growth bayesian model averaging evidence this paper examines the effect of finance on long term economic growth using bayesian model averaging to address model uncertainty in cross country growth regressions the literature largely focuses on financial indicators that assess the financial depth of banks and stock markets these indicators are examined jointly with newly developed indicators that assess the stability and efficiency of financial markets once the finance growth regressions are subjected to model uncertainty the results suggest that commonly used indicators of financial development are not robustly related to long term growth however the findings from the global sample indicate that one newly developed indicator the efficiency of financial intermediaries is robustly related to long term growth

bargaining over reform abstract this paper models the delay in a macroeconomic stabilization as the outcome of a bargaining game between two parties who must reach an agreement over how the stabilization cost is to be shared the paper modifies alesina and drazen s 1991 american economic review 81 1170 1189 war of attrition model by endogenizing the distribution of the stabilization costs through a bargaining game using this bargaining framework the paper analyzes the role of crises and foreign assistance in bringing about a settlement to the distributional conflict in the bargaining game a crisis that increases the welfare loss from not stabilizing the economy will lower the probability of delay in contrast foreign aid that is used to reduce the stabilization costs will further increase the delay in reaching an agreement between the two parties

the financial development and growth nexus a meta analysis this is the accepted manuscript the final version is available from wiley at http onlinelibrary wiley com doi 10 1111 joes 12086 abstract

durable goods monopolists durable goods monopolists face special problems because the sale of their products creates a secondhand market not controlled by the monopolist to the extent the monopolist is able to rent his product rather than sell it or to make binding promises about his future production such problems are ameliorated given the inability to do the above the monopolist is led to producing goods less durable than those produced by either competitive firms or monopolist returns a reverse averch johnson result that monopolist sellers may invest less in fixed costs including plant modernization and research and development than would the renters is shown it is also shown that even though sellers have less monopoly power than renters and nondurable goods monopolists it is possible that the seller will cause a greater deadweight loss than the other types of monopolies

sustainability impacts of car road pricing a computable general equilibrium analysis for austria abstract nationwide car road pricing schemes are discussed across europe we analyse the impacts of such schemes with respect to environmental economic and social indicators of sustainability also quantifying the trade offs among these three dimensions under different charging principles and revenue recycling options in our analysis we employ a computable general equilibrium cge approach develop a modelling structure for private transport and provide detailed empirical analysis for the case of austria regarding the social dimension it has often been argued that poorer households and commuters would have to bear a disproportionate share of the road pricing burden we find the contrary i e a stronger negative policy impact on richer households and on a small group of intensive car users the choice of revenue recycling is able to ameliorate the negative social and economic effects of road pricing without reversing the desired positive environmental effects for political feasibility questions of distributional impacts are most urgent and therefore we address them systematically within a quantitative framework

financial development and economic growth a meta analysis we analyze 1334 estimates from 67 studies that examine the effect of financial development on economic growth taken together the studies imply a positive and statistically significant effect but the individual estimates vary widely we find that both research design and heterogeneity in the underlying effect play a role in explaining the differences in results studies that do not address endogeneity tend to overstate the effect of finance on growth while the effect seems to be weaker in less developed countries the effect decreases worldwide after the 1980s our results also suggest that stock markets support faster economic growth than other financial intermediaries

residential demand for energy commodities a household production function approach abstract this paper formulates a demand model for energy commodities using a household production function approach the model is stated in a utility maximization framework where utility is assumed to be a function of two composite commodities directly yielding utility electricity and natural gas are used as inputs along with a capital stock to produce one of the utility yielding commodities the other utility yielding commodity is assumed to be produced with two non energy goods and capital stock which are purchased on the market the kuhn tucker conditions are then used to characterize the optimal time paths for input purchases and investments by the household

bargaining and strikes strikes are generally regarded as an important economic phenomenon and yet good theoretical explanations of them are hard to come by the difficulty is to understand why rational parties should resort to a wasteful mechanism as a way of distributing the gains from trade why could not both parties be made better off by moving to the final distribution of surplus immediately or if it is uncertain to its certainty equivalent and sharing the benefits from increased production

financial liberalization insurance market and the likelihood of financial crises this paper provides empirical evidence to investigate the direct impact of financial liberalization on the likelihood of currency systemic banking crises and examines the roles of insurance market country risk and economic conditional variables on the relationship between financial liberalization and financial crises in 39 countries our empirical results support that financial liberalization does have a significantly negative impact on the likelihood of currency systemic banking crises and that the indirect effects of insurance development and lower country risk decrease the probability of crises but the indirect effect of economic conditional proxies is enhanced with the likelihood of a financial crisis the policy implication is that the government or authority should strengthen the positive role of the insurance sector in order to combat financial crises

financial intermediation capital composition and income stagnation the case of europe abstract we look into the role of financial intermediation in inducing the european financial crisis of 2008 by exploring the effects of overall lending and the allocation of credit to specific categories of borrowers namely households vs firms we find that for the eu26 during the period 1995 2008 excessive household leverage through mortgage lending exerted a crowding out effect on availability of credit to support innovation and productive investment the crowding out effect ultimately translated into a gdp growth that was decoupled from real household income in this article we explain that shifting credit towards mortgages and away from corporate projects is consistent with rational behaviour based on historical trends aimed at minimizing short term risk for each individual bank nevertheless as a whole the sum of individual risk reducing attitudes generated a long term systemic risk

alternative models of individual behaviour and implications for environmental policy abstract most insights of environmental economics are in line with the standard neoclassical economic model of rational behaviour formulated in terms of maximization of utility in general or of profits in particular the standard theory of environmental policy is a case in point however the maximization hypothesis and its methodological foundation have been criticized on many grounds related to a lack of either logical or empirical content moreover over the years a great many alternative models of behaviour have been proposed both criticism and alternatives are surveyed here attention is devoted to relevant insights from the philosophy of science the notion of methodological individualism and other criticism the alternative behavioural models include bounded rationality and satisficing lexicographic preferences habitual behaviour incommensurability and multicriteria evaluation and various models of behaviour under uncertainty major implications of the criticism and alternative models of individual behaviour for environmental policy theory are outlined

is the relationship between financial development and economic growth monotonic evidence from a sample of middle income countries summary we revisit the relationship between financial development and economic growth in a panel of 52 middle income countries over the 1980 2008 period using pooled mean group estimations in a dynamic heterogeneous panel setting we show that there is an inverted u shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run in the short run the relationship is insignificant this suggests that too much finance can exert a negative influence on growth in middle income countries the finding of a non monotonic effect of financial development on growth is confirmed by estimating a threshold model

current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil exporting countries the role of financial development abstract oil exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices in this paper we investigate this oil price current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil exporting economies relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition regression models over the 1980 2010 period we provide evidence that refines the traditional interpretation of oil price effects on current accounts while current accounts are positively affected by oil price variations this effect is nonlinear and depends critically on the degree of financial development of oil exporting economies more specifically oil price variations exert a stronger impact on the current account position for less financially developed countries this influence diminishing with financial deepness

determinants of pro environmental consumption the role of reference groups and routine behavior abstract this paper investigates the determinants of pro environmental consumption focusing on the role of reference groups and routine behavior we study the factors that explain whether or not people have installed residential solar energy equipment or have subscribed to green electricity programs and the factors that influence the intensity of buying organic food in addition to demographic characteristics and environmental attitudes we consider the following categories of determinants economic and cognitive factors income estimated price premium level of information on environmentally friendly goods consumption patterns of reference persons own consumption patterns in the past using a unique data set from a survey conducted in the region of hanover germany we find the following 1 economic and cognitive factors are significant covariates of all three kinds of pro environmental consumption their influence is greatest in the case of green electricity 2 consumption patterns of reference persons are significant covariates of all three kinds of pro environmental consumption their influence is greatest in the case of organic food 3 the intensity of buying organic food is greater the longer people have been consumers of these goods

the cooperative bank difference before and after the global financial crisis abstract we compare characteristics of the banks specialization cooperative versus non cooperative at the world level in a time spell including the global financial crisis cooperative banks display higher net loans total assets ratios lower shares of derivatives over total assets and lower earning volatility than commercial banks with a diff in diff approach we test whether the global financial crisis produced convergence divergence in these indicators we finally document that in a conditional convergence specification the net loans total assets ratio is positively and significantly correlated with value added growth in some manufacturing sectors but not in others

financial development financial fragility and growth the authors study the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity on the one hand the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by for instance private domestic credit and liquid liabilities for example levine loayza and beck 2000 on the other hand the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates such as domestic credit are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns for example kaminski and reinhart 1999 the authors account for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short and long run impacts of financial intermediation working with a panel of cross country and time series observations they estimate an encompassing model of short and long run effects using the pooled mean group estimator developed by pesaran shin and smith 1999 their conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth coexists with a mostly negative short run relationship the authors further develop an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models by linking the estimated short run effects to measures of financial fragility namely banking crises and financial volatility and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions

financial development economic growth and convergence clubs abstractto study the role of financial development in economic growth we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs furthermore financial development emerges to be a significant determinant albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club

foreign aid and market liberalizing reform market oriented economic policies reflected in limited economic activity by government protection of private property rights sound monetary policy outward orientation regarding trade and efficient tax and regulatory policy have been strongly linked to faster rates of economic growth foreign aid is often provided in the belief that it encourages liberalizing reforms in these areas this paper analyzes the impact of aid on market liberalizing policy reform correcting for the possible endogeneity of aid results indicate that higher aid slowed reform over the 1980 2000 period as measured by a broad index of policies disaggregating policy into five areas aid is significantly linked to slower reform in some policy areas but not in others disaggregating by decade aid s adverse impact on policy reform is much more pronounced for the 1980s than for the 1990s

political fractionalization and delay in fiscal stabilizations a duration analysis this article employs a duration analysis approach to empirically investigate whether political fractionalization leads to delayed fiscal stabilizations using a broad sample of both developed and developing countries for the period 1975 2011 we consistently find strong evidence that political fractionalization is significantly associated with longer delays in stabilizing high deficits in particular political fractionalization has a greater impact on delays in periods of macroeconomic distress we also show that while the fractionalization of government parties delays fiscal stabilization the fractionalization of opposition parties tends to facilitate fiscal stabilization

entrepreneurship social mobility and income redistribution in south india development economists have been preoccupied with the problem of increasing the size of the gnp pie to the relative neglect of its distribution despite the recent disenchantment with the viewpoint that all classes share in the benefits of industrial growth empirical data on the distribution of income business opportunity and economic power are in short supply many of the studies on entrepreneurship and economic development when they are not apologetics for ruthless capitalist exploitation as paul baran suggests extol the achievements of the capitalist entrepreneur without examining class origins and monopoly advantage joseph schumpeter sees entrepreneurs irrespective of class origin as heroic figures with the dream and will to found a private kingdom to conquer adversity to achieve success for its own sake and to experience the joy of creation for gustav papanek 1967 the private entrepreneur who is frugal diligent far sighted remarkably able and willing to take political risks is in large part responsible for the success of pakistan in achieving rapid industrialization

inflation thresholds and the finance growth nexus abstract the robustness of the cross sectional relationship between the size of a country s financial sector and its rate of economic growth is by now well established in this article we examine whether the strength of this relationship varies with the inflation rate using five year averages of standard measures of financial development inflation and growth for 84 countries from 1960 to 1995 a series of rolling panel regressions show that there is an inflation threshold for the finance growth relationship that lies between 13 and 25 percent when inflation exceeds the threshold finance ceases to increase economic growth we also find that the level of financial depth varies inversely with inflation in low inflation environments and that disinflation is associated with a positive effect of financial depth on growth

the quality and quantity of bank intermediation and economic growth evidence from asia pacific we investigate the impact of the quantity and quality of bank intermediation on economic growth across 14 asia pacific economies over 2003 2015 measures of bank shareholder value efficiency as wel

divergent expectations as a cause of disagreement in bargaining evidence from a comparison of arbitration schemes the fact that settlement rates are much higher where final offer arbitration rather than conventional arbitration is the dispute settlement procedure is used as the basis of a test of the role of divergent and relatively optimistic expectations in causing disagreement in negotiations calculations of identical expectations contract zones using existing estimates of models of arbitrator behavior yield larger identical expectations contract zones in conventional arbitration than in final offer arbitration this evidence clearly suggests that divergent expectations alone are not an adequate explanation of disagreement in labor management negotiations a number of alternative explanations for disagreement are suggested and evaluated

the dynamics of willingness to consume abstract it is increasingly acknowledged that the growing consumption in the north constitutes an important part of global environmental problems to improve the possibilities of dealing with this aspect of the problems this paper explores some of the driving forces behind the growth in consumption the first section introduces the environmental debate on consumption including the relationship between final consumption and the consumption of resources the recent political acceptance of dealing with consumption and the fundamental conditions for consumption growth in the north in the following sections a cross disciplinary approach is applied in a broad search for the driving forces behind the willingness to consume throughout the exposition two questions are explored 1 why are productivity increases largely transformed into income increases instead of more leisure 2 why is such a large part of these income increases used for the consumption of goods and services with a relatively high materials intensity instead of less material intensive alternatives the explanations are divided into three groups first the economic explanations including socio economic aspects related to the institutional set up of the economy second socio psychological explanations focusing on consumption from the perspective of the human being embedded in specific social relations third historical and socio technological explanations focusing on different aspects of everyday life the paper concludes with some reflections on the political implications of the analysis

financial fragility in the great moderation abstract a nascent literature explores the measurement of financial fragility this paper considers evidence for rising financial fragility during the 1984 2007 great moderation in the u s the literature suggests that macroeconomic stability combined with strong growth of credit to asset markets in asset prices and in credit relative to output are all indicators of rising financial fragility we show each of these trends in the great moderation we derive the testable implication that in the great moderation credit growth is driven more by past credit growth and less by output growth allen and gale 2000 relative to pre great moderation years results from a var model estimated on quarterly data for 1955 2007 are consistent with the hypothesis this invites a reinterpretation of the great moderation our methodology may help understand when a credit boom turns into a credit bubble and contributes to the development of methods of measuring financial fragility

financialisation institutions and financing constraints in developing countries the paper uses a consistent firm level data from the world banks enterprise surveys to explore the impact of financialisation in the economy on firms access to finance in 138 developing countries access to finance reflects survey based firms perceptions of external financing constraints financialisation is proxied by consistent cross country measures of financial depth these proxies capture separately the role of bank based versus market based financing firm sector and country level information is jointly used for the analysis firm specific characteristics and economic and non economic national factors are included as controls the results show that the proxies of financialisation are broadly robust predictors of financing constraints of firms in developing countries however the magnitude of the financialisation effect varies between bank based and market based channels of financing as well as between low and high income countries and it is influenced by social institutional and religious factors

why are stabilizations delayed when a stabilization has significant distributional implications e g tax increases to eliminate a large budget deficit socioeconomic groups may attempt to shift the burden of stabilization onto other groups the process leading to stabilization becomes a war of attrition each group attempting to wait the others out and stabilization occurring only when one group concedes and bears a disproportionate share of the burden the authors solve for the expected time of stabilization in a model of rational delay and relate it to several political and economic variables they motivate this approach and its results by comparison to historical and current episodes copyright 1991 by american economic association

bargaining with incomplete information an infinite horizon model with two sided uncertainty the resolution of any bargaining conflict depends crucially on the relative urgency of the agents to reach agreement and the information each agent has about the others preferences this paper explores within the context of an infinite horizon bargaining model with two sided uncertainty how timing and information affect the rational behaviour of agents when commitment is not possible since the bargainers are uncertain about whether trade is desirable they must communicate some of their private information before an agreement can be reached this need for learning due to incomplete information about preferences results in bargaining inefficiencies trade often occurs after costly delay thus the model provides an explanation for the inefficient bargaining behaviour that appears to occur often in practice

financial intermediation and economic performance historical evidence from five industrialized countries this paper examines the nature of links between the intensity of financial intermediation and economic performance that operated in the united states the united kingdom canada norway and sweden over the 1870 1929 period after describing the coevolution of the financial and real sectors in these countries vector error correction models vecms establish the quantitative importance of long run relationships among measures of financial intensity and real per capita levels of output and the monetary base granger causality tests then suggest a leading role for the intermediation variables in real sector activity while feedback effects are largely insignificant the results suggest an important role for intermediation in the rapid industrial transformations of all five countries

the effect of financial development on economic growth a meta analysis in this article we contribute to the current debate on the sign and size of the finance growth relation to this purpose we use a meta analysis with 551 estimates from 68 empirical studies that t

behaviour in commons dilemmas homo economicus and homo psychologicus in an ecological economic model in mainstream economy behaviour is often formalised following the rational actor approach however in real life the behaviour of people is typified by multidimensional optimisation to realise this people engage in cognitive processes such as social comparison imitation and repetitive behaviour habits so as to efficiently use their limited cognitive resources a multi agent simulation program is being developed to study how such micro level processes affect macro level outcomes sixteen agents are placed in a micro world consisting of a lake and a gold mine each agent s task is to satisfy its personal needs by fishing and or mining whereby they find themselves in a commons dilemma facing the risk of resource depletion homo economicus and homo psychologicus are formalised to study the effects of different cognitive processes on the agents behaviour results show that for the h psychologicus the transition from a fishing to a mining society is more complete than for the h economicus moreover introducing diversity in agents abilities causes the h economicus on the average to decrease its time spent working whereas for the h psychologicus we observe an increase in the time spent working these results confirm that macro level indicators of sustainability such as pollution and fish harvest are strongly and predictably affected by behavioural processes at the micro level it is concluded that the incorporation of a micro level perspective on human behaviour within integrated models of the environment yields a better understanding and eventual management of the processes involved in environmental degradation 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

cyclical fluctuations in strike durations canadian data on strikes between 1946 and 1983 are used to estimate linear regression models for the logarithm of completed duration a thorough investigation of the influence of the business cycle reveals strong support for the hypothesis that strike durations are countercyclical the cyclical effect is shown to be robust to both the choice of cyclical variable and the econometric specification and the magnitude of the effect is quite substantial experimentation with different representations of the cycle reveals that it is difficult to improve on a simple formulation involving a single continuous variable

financial development and economic growth the role of stock markets utilizing time series methods and data from five developed economies we examine the relationship between stock market development and economic growth controlling for the effects of the banking system and stock market volatility our results support the view that although both banks and stock markets may be able to promote economic growth the erects of the former are more powerful they also suggest that the contribution of stock markets on economic growth may have been exaggerated by studies that utilize cross country growth regressions

thresholds in the finance growth nexus a cross country analysis thresholds of inflation government size trade openness and per capita income for the finance growth nexus are investigated using five year averages of standard variables for 84 countries from 1965 to 2004 the results suggest that i high inflation crowds out positive effects of financial depth on long run growth ii small government sizes hurt the finance growth nexus in low income countries while large government sizes hurt high income countries iii low levels of trade openness are sufficient for finance growth nexus in high income countries but low income countries need higher levels of trade openness for similar magnitudes of the finance growth nexus and iv catch up effects through the finance growth nexus are higher for moderate per capita income levels

thresholds of financial development in the euro area we analyse the dynamics of financial development and economic growth in the euro area as these countries went through considerably higher levels of financial development using a balanced panel data of 38 years from 1980 to 2018 we offer new evidence on the finance growth nexus we show the presence of non linearity as there is an inverted u shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run estimating the thresholds in the finance growth nexus we notice a threshold effect at 74 86 of gdp for domestic credit 51 of gdp for stock turnover ratio and 65 of gdp for stock market capitalisation we notice that exceeding the threshold causes deceleration in economic growth as too much finance results in crowding out effect for productive economic activities the panel granger causality test results show that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance these findings in the euro area provide some useful policy implications to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies

implicit bank debt guarantees costs benefits and risks the expectation by market participants that public authorities might bailout the creditors of banks that are considered too important for financial system stability or another reason to be allowed to fail is commonly referred to as an implicit guarantee public authorities do not have any explicit commitment to intervene they may even honestly state that they not want to do so ex ante but may feel compelled to do so ex post a declared policy aim is to limit the value of implicit guarantees by making banks stronger more easily resolvable in case of distress as well as by imposing extra charges that rise as banks become more systemically important as part of the latter approach globally systemically important banks are identified and subjected to more costly and intrusive regulation there is little evidence that specific approach has been successful so far there is some evidence that the introduction of new resolution frameworks has been helpful while the use of newly available resolution tools and the involvement of bank creditors in the burden sharing associated with bank failure resolution has significantly reduced the value of implicit bank debt guarantees where it occurred in that sense actions speak louder than words

a letter to the editor on wage bargaining abstract the rubinstein perfect information alternating offers bargaining model is problematic when applied to wage negotiations a strike or any other industrial action is not an automatic consequence of a delay in reaching an agreement because production can continue normally also when negotiations take place this paper extends the rubinstein model to incorporate the choice of calling a strike and it is shown that in this model there is no longer a unique subgame perfect equilibrium and that strikes with a length in real time can occur in equilibrium

the benefit of crises for economic reforms when expenditures consistently outrun revenue the resulting inflation may have the effect of convincing the public and government that taxes must be raised to finance public investment in the advanced industrial countries income taxation and big spurts in taxation generally have become possible only under the impact of major emergency and crisis mostly in wartime in a number of developing countries in

recovering the finance growth nexus abstract we show that the finance growth nexus can be recovered by using quality adjusted measures of financial development specifically we utilize three world bank financial fragility indicators the z score a measure of liquidity and a measure of impaired loans to construct quality adjusted measures of private credit to gdp our findings suggest that the finance growth nexus is alive and kicking as long as banks use sound lending practices to prevent the buildup of non performing loans we also show that our results hold in sub saharan africa a region where the finance growth nexus could potentially make a big difference

equity markets and growth cross country evidence on timing and outcomes 1980 1995 abstract the rapid expansion of organized equity exchanges in both emerging and developed markets has prompted policymakers to raise important questions about their macroeconomic impact yet the need to focus on recent data poses implementation difficulties for econometric studies of dynamic interactions between stock markets and economic performance in individual countries this paper overcomes some of these difficulties by applying recent developments in the analysis of panels with a small time dimension to estimate vector autoregressions for a set of 47 countries with annual data for 1980 1995 after describing recent theories on the role of stock markets in growth and considering a pure cross sectional empirical approach our panel vars show leading roles for stock market liquidity and the intensity of activity in traditional financial intermediaries on per capita output the findings underscore the potential gains associated with developing deep and liquid financial markets in an increasingly global economy

the finance trade nexus revisited is the global trade slowdown also a financial story abstract this paper studies the role of non linearities in the finance trade nexus while we confirm the positive impact of financial development on the level of trade openness our findings reveal that the marginal effect decreases considerably with the size of the financial sector the study contributes to two different strands of the economic literature first while widely examined in the finance growth nexus literature the discovered non linearities have been neglected so far in studies on the link between finance and trade second the diminishing marginal effect of finance appears to be an important factor in explaining the recent slowdown in global trade growth

the finance growth nexus in crisis while the literature on the finance growth nexus suggests a positive link between financial development and economic growth another strand of literature highlights the crucial role of credit growth for the occurrence and strength of financial and economic crises in this paper we link the two seemingly contradicting strands of the literature by a strong and robust empirical finding while financial development is indeed positively linked to gdp p c growth in normal non crisis times larger financial sectors lead to significantly worse economic outcomes in the case of a banking crisis

can foreign aid accelerate stabilization this paper studies the effect of foreign aid on economic stabilization following alesina and drazen 1991 we model the delay in stabilizing as the result of a distributional struggle reforms are postponed because they are costly and each distributional faction hopes to reduce its share of the cost by outlasting its opponents in obstructing the required policies since the delay is used to signal each faction s strength the effect of the transfer depends on the role it plays in the release of information we show that this role depends on the timing of the transfer foreign aid decided and transferred sufficiently early into the game leads to earlier stabilization but aid decided or transferred too late is destabilizing and encourages further postponement of reforms

towards sustainable consumption economic modelling of mobility and heating for austria abstract the paper focuses on economic modelling and empirical analysis of sustainable structures in private consumption and strives to extend conventional economic consumption models the model analysis of sustainable consumption in the areas heating and transport for austria attempts to depart from traditional measurement of consumption in national accounts and economic consumption models the focus of the analysis is laid on consumer services derived from a combination of stocks e g building stock transport systems and flows mainly energy this approach intends to illustrate that a concentration on flows in consumption models lacks important aspects of sustainable consumption the economic analysis of sustainable consumption patterns aims to highlight the effects related to the substitution of flows by stocks in the consumption areas transport and heating e g improvements in thermal quality of buildings more energy efficient transport systems relevant too in this respect is the role that can be played by technological innovation improvements in energy efficiency of stocks the potential for specific incentives to promote new technologies two essential factors are crucial in the context of sustainable consumption the demand shifts concerning the consumer services desired and the composition of the stock flow mix necessary for the service provision

what matters in the finance growth nexus of advanced economies evidence from oecd countries over the last decades a large strand of finance and growth literature has provided ample evidence on the importance of financial deepening for economic development yet recently the focus of pub

imf programs and reforms inhibition or encouragement abstract we analyze the impact of international monetary fund imf programs on market oriented reforms employing panel data for 116 countries over the period 1970 2000 we find that the net effect of imf programs on reforms is negative

the changing face of financial development abstract we provide evidence from a large number of countries which demonstrates the changing nature of the finance growth nexus specifically we show that financial depth is no longer a significant determinant of long run growth instead we find evidence to suggest that certain financial reforms have sizeable growth effects which can be positive or negative depending on how well banks are regulated and supervised

the determinants of strike incidence and severity a micro level study this paper investigates the determinants of strike incidence and severity during labor contract negotiations the author develops a model that considers the forces influencing both unions willingness to strike and employers willingness to take a strike and estimates it using data describing 1 050 negotiations in u s manufacturing during the 1971 80 period the results indicate that strike incidence is influenced by the gender composition of the labor force demand fluctuations in the product market location in a right to work state the number of workers in the bargaining unit union density in the industry and the extent to which wages kept pace with inflation over the prior contract period on the other hand neither the local unemployment rate when negotiations began nor the inflation rate over the term of the expiring contract influenced strike incidence or severity in this sample

sustainable food consumption among young adults in belgium theory of planned behaviour and the role of confidence and values abstract this study investigates determinants of sustainable food consumer behaviour in belgium to gain a better insight in sustainable consumption a study was conducted in which attitudes and behaviour as well as the role of individual characteristics like confidence and values related to sustainable products are analyzed the focus of the analysis is on exploring the influence of determinants as hypothesised by the theory of planned behaviour tpb attitudes perceived behavioural control social norms on sustainable consumption intention in general and specifically depending on consumer s perceived confidence and personal values the empirical research builds on a survey with a sample of 456 young adults using a questionnaire and showing an advertisement for hypothetical sustainable dairy products stepwise multiple regression models showed that 50 of the variance in intention to consume sustainable dairy was explained by the combination of personal attitudes perceived social influences perceived consumer effectiveness and perceived availability in addition different levels of confidence and value orientation yield different strengths of the determinants the findings yield public policy and marketing recommendations for stimulating sustainable food consumption among young adults

beyond homo economicus evidence from experimental economics environmental policies are generally based on a model of the human actor taken from neoclassical economic theory this paper reports on laboratory experiments suggesting weaknesses in this model and describes alternative models correcting these weaknesses one finding is that economic actors tend to be hyperbolic as opposed to exponential discounters who discount the immediate future at a higher rate than the more distant future another finding is that economic actors are not self regarding but rather in many circumstances are strong reciprocators who come to strategic interactions with a propensity to cooperate respond to cooperative behavior by maintaining or increasing cooperation and respond to free riders by retaliating against the offenders even at a personal cost and even when there is no reasonable expectation that future personal gains will flow from such retaliation we discuss some implications for policy analysis 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

government financial institutions and capital allocation efficiency in japan abstract this paper uses the industry level panel data from 1975 2005 and estimates wurgler s the elasticity of industry investment to value added for each of japan s 47 prefectures we find that wurgler s varies considerably across prefectures even though there is no regulatory restriction on inter regional flow of financial capital moreover exploiting cross prefecture variation in wurgler s we show that the share of government loans is strongly and negatively correlated with the quality of capital allocation we also find that this negative correlation is robust to controlling for local economic and financial development and more pronounced in declining industries than growing industries moreover the share of government loans is positively correlated with investment to output ratio but negatively correlated with total factor productivity growth taken as a whole the results are broadly consistent with the view that japan s government financial institutions stimulate investment in declining industries while distorting capital allocation and reducing overall productivity growth

on the role of domestic and international financial cyclical factors in driving economic growth abstractwe investigate the effects of domestic and international financial cyclical factors on the us business cycle over the period 1890 2013 using an augmented stochastic version of the neoclas

when are stabilizations delayed alesina drazen revisited abstract in an influential article alesina and drazen 1991 why are stabilizations delayed american economic review 81 1170 1188 model delay of stabilization as the result of a struggle between political groups supporting reform plans with different distributional implications in this paper we show that ex ante asymmetries in the costs of delay for the groups will reduce the probability of conflict and will lead to a shorter expected delay accurate common information about the cost of delay may lead to no delay at all in an asymmetric conflict a wider divergence in the distributional implications of reform will reduce the probability of conflict but will lead to a longer expected delay we motivate the asymmetric model of delay by reference to latin american episodes of the 1980s

implicit bank debt guarantees costs benefits and risks implicit bank debt guarantees the expectation by market participants that public authorities might bailout the creditors of banks that are considered too important for financial system stability or another reason to be allowed to fail is commonly referred to as an implicit guarantee public authorities do not have any explicit commitment to intervene they may even honestly state that they not want to do so ex ante but may feel compelled to do so ex post a declared policy aim is to limit the value of implicit guarantees by making banks stronger more easily resolvable in case of distress as well as by imposing extra charges that rise as banks become more systemically important as part of the latter approach globally systemically important banks are identified and subjected to more costly and intrusive regulation there is little evidence that specific approach has been successful so far there is some evidence that the introduction of new resolution frameworks has been helpful while the use of newly available resolution tools and the involvement of bank creditors in the burden sharing associated with bank failure resolution has significantly reduced the value of implicit bank debt guarantees where it occurred in that sense actions speak louder than words

what is happening to the impact of financial deepening on economic growth i introduction among the strongest elements of the modern economists canon is that financial sector development has a significant impact on economic growth a generation ago economists like goldsmith 1969 1 and mckinnon 1973 began to draw attention to the benefits of financial structure development and financial liberalization by the early 1990s mckinnon 1991 12 could write with confidence that now however there is widespread agreement that flows of saving and investment should be voluntary and significantly decentralized in an open capital market at close to equilibrium interest rates since the 1990s a burgeoning empirical literature has illustrated the importance of financial sector development for economic growth despite the growing consensus however we find that the link between finance and growth in cross country panel data has weakened considerably over time at the very time that financial sector liberalization spread around the world the influence of financial sector development on economic growth has diminished the seminal empirical work that established the growth finance link is king and levine 1993 which extended the cross country framework introduced in barro 1991 by adding financial variables such as the ratios of liquid liabilities or claims on the private sector to gross domestic product gdp to the standard growth regression they found a robust positive and statistically significant relationship between initial financial conditions and subsequent growth in real per capita incomes for a cross section of about 80 countries in the subsequent decade numerous empirical studies expanded upon this using both cross country and panel data sets for the post 1960 period 2 in this paper we reexamine the core cross country panel result and find that the impact of financial deepening on growth is not as strong with more recent data as it appeared in the original panel studies with data for the period from 1960 to 1989 we consider various explanations for this clear shift first we suggest that financial deepening has a positive effect on growth if not done to excess rapid and excessive deepening as manifested in a credit boom can be problematic even in the most developed markets because it can both weaken the banking system and bring inflationary pressures we test this hypothesis by looking at the finance growth nexus among countries that have or have not experienced financial sector crises we find that once crisis episodes are removed the finance growth relationship remains intact its weakening over time thus seems to be a result of an increased incidence of crises in later years our second and related hypothesis is that the widespread liberalization of financial markets that occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s made financial deepening less effective this is reminiscent of robert lucas s 1975 critique of econometric policy evaluation advanced three decades ago policies that have promoted and or forced increases in financial depth over the past two decades may have altered the basic structural relationship between finance and growth this could occur if the observed benefits of financial deepening led many countries to liberalize before the associated legal and regulatory institutions were sufficiently well developed as a consequence the impact of financial deepening on growth would become smaller our evidence does not indicate that recent liberalizations are responsible for the breakdown of the finance growth link however there may be an indirect link as premature financial development can lead to financial crises that have real effects third we examine the role of global equity markets that have grown in importance and prominence in the years over which the finance growth relationship disappeared however we do not find any evidence to suggest that equity market growth has substituted for the role of credit markets and banks in particular

infrastructure finance and industrial takeoff in england that financial matters did not constrain industrial takeoff in the uk is generally accepted in the historical literature in contrast contemporary empirical analyses have found evidence that financial development can be a causal determinant of economic growth we look to reconcile these findings by concentrating on a particular aspect of industrializing uk where inefficiencies in finance could have had bite the finance of physical infrastructures we document the historical record and develop the importance of spatial disaggregation and spillovers in both technological and financial development we develop a simple model that captures the nature of infrastructure finance within a theory of endogenous growth where financial costs are endogenous we argue that the conception of the finance growth nexus as a largely static aggregative phenomenon misses out a good deal of complexity and we relate that complexity to a number of implications for regulation of both financial systems and the emergence of infrastructures

an almost ideal demand system for housing attributes in recent articles mendelsohn 16 and palmquist 20 use restricted versions of rosen s 22 model of household behavior to consistently estimate demand functions for attributes of a differentiated product rosen s 22 model is of a single market for such a product and he proposes a two step technique to estimate attribute demand functions first a single hedonic price function is estimated for the differentiated product attribute prices are the first derivatives of the fitted hedonic price function with respect to the relevant attributes second demand functions for attributes are estimated using the prices imputed in the first step if the hedonic price function estimated in the first step is linear then there is no price variation for attributes and demand functions cannot be estimated if the hedonic price function is nonlinear then there is price variation but it is endogenous to households since in a single market price and attribute quantity are chosen jointly 2 indeed within market price variation will always be endogenous in either case without sufficient restriction on the model the parameters of the demand functions for attributes cannot be consistently estimated using rosen s 22 method 3 mendelsohn 16 and palmquist 20 assume that there are many markets for the differentiated product and that households with like preferences may be observed in the different markets by this restriction households face price variation across markets that is exogenous whether hedonic price functions are linear or nonlinear if so demand functions can be consistently estimated 4

uncertainty and delay in bargaining this paper investigates the relationship between uncertainty and delay of agreement in the one sided offer bargaining model with two sided uncertainty where the seller makes offers we construct a weak stationary equilibrium in which different types of the seller charge different prices in every period we completely characterize the separating equilibrium by three regularity conditions and show that the time interval between offers converges to zero the seller s initial price offer in a separating equilibrium converges with probability 1 to the lowest valuation of the buyer if and only if the gain from trading is common knowledge we have witnessed a proliferation of sequential bargaining models that with a few remarkable exceptions fudenberg and tirole 1983 cramton 1984 and chatterjee and samuelson 1987 are based on models with one sided uncertainty the importance of studying bargaining models with one sided uncertainty is that despite their highly special informational structure we can derive valuable insights into the role of uncertainty in the delay in reaching an agreement while keeping the computational exercise tractable however the assumption of one sided uncertainty essentially excludes the situation where the buyer s actual reservation value is lower than the seller s actual reservation value though they are still engaged in the bargaining process the primary objective of this paper is to investigate the role of uncertainty about the gain from trading in a sequential bargaining model with two sided incomplete information in the models with one sided incomplete information important studies fudenberg levine and tirole 1985 and gul sonnenschein and wilson 1986 are often based on weak stationary equilibria where the equilibrium strategy of each player only depends upon the posterior conjecture about the other player and the previous period s offer although the importance of two sided uncertainty and the weak stationary equilibrium is well recognized previous research on sequential bargaining models has not combined the two features within the same framework studies on the models under two sided uncertainty have not focused on weak stationary equilibria for example cramton 1984 computes a specific sequential equilibrium with interesting properties in which the equilibrium strategies of both players depend upon histories in a rather complex fashion on the other hand it is only in models under one sided uncertainty that the weak stationary equilibrium has been extensively studied this paper computes and analyzes the weak stationary equilibria in a model under two sided uncertainty in order to investigate the effect of uncertainty on the delay in agreement we will extend the results from previous studies of one sided uncertainty models the computation of the equilibrium in models with two sided uncertainty is generally very complicated furthermore we must identify a sensible outcome if more than one equilibrium exists in the model to simplify the analysis we choose a standard bargaining

strategic bargaining models and interpretation of strike data attrition screening and signalling models of strategic bargaining are characterized in terms of their predictions about the incidence mean duration and settlement rates of strikes and the terms of wage settlements these predictions are compared with the general features observed in empirical studies of strikes in canada and the united states conclusions are drawn about the types of models capable of generating these features and about the conformity of the models to the evidence methods are described for computing the numerical examples used to illustrate the models

towards an accounting view on money banking and the macroeconomy history empirics theory in this paper three views are considered which are traditionally associated with money cranks and brave heretics the first is that the credit nature of money has macroeconomic significance the second is that financial development can be bad for economic growth the third is that macroeconomic models need to be explicitly monetary macroeconomic models it is argued that in each of these three areas there has been a recent shift in mainstream economic opinion this suggests new opportunities for meaningful debate between heterodox and orthodox schools on money and finance it is further argued following skaggs 2003 that a common meeting ground could be an accounting view of economics this is a mode of macroeconomic analysis which explicitly uses accounting definitions identities that credit is also debt or that flows of a variable affect the stock of that variable or accounting methods e g decomposing different kinds of liabilities or linking flows of liquidity to flows of transactions to structure and direct the analysis the accounting view is highly pluralist yet clearly defined i discuss its applications to each of the three views

the interest group theory of financial development evidence from regulation abstract we use a new dataset of de jure measures of trade capital account product market and domestic financial regulation for 91 countries from 1973 to 2005 to test rajan and zingales s 2003 interest group theory of financial development in line with the theory we find strong evidence that trade liberalization is a leading indicator of domestic financial liberalization this result is robust to the use of different data frequencies annual 5 year intervals estimation methods ols 2sls system gmm and a check for non linear effects however in contrast to the theory we do not find consistent evidence of an effect of capital account liberalization

harmonization and side payments in political cooperation for two districts or countries that try to internalize externalities i analyze a bargaining game under private information i derive conditions for when it is efficient with uniform policies across regions with and without side payments and when it is efficient to prohibit side payments in the negotiations while policy differentiation and side payments allow the policy to better reflect local conditions they create conflicts between the regions and thus delay the results also describe when political centralization outperforms decentralized cooperation and they provide a theoretical foundation for the controversial uniformity assumption traditionally used by the fiscal federalism literature

incorporating demand shifters in the almost ideal demand system abstract intercepts of share equations generally include demand shift variables in the almost ideal demand system and related models this results in estimates that depend on units of measurement solutions to this problem are identified and discussed

strikes and wages a test of an asymmetric information model this paper describes a simple model of labor disputes based on the hypothesis that unions use strikes to infer the profitability of the firm the model posits the existence of a negatively sloped resistance curve between wages and strike duration in addition it offer a series of predictions relating wage and strike outcomes to changes in the expected profitability of the firm and changes in the alternative opportunities of striking workers these implications are tested using data on wage outcomes strike probabilities and strike durations for a large sample of collective bargaining agreements

has the finance growth link been broken panel data evidence from latin america and the caribbean abstract this paper examines the two way relationship between economic growth and financial development for latin america and the caribbean lac the sample consists of 32 emerging and developing countries from lac spanning the period 1970 2014 controlling for country and time fixed effects the first central finding indicates that financial development is not a significant factor driving economic growth the evidence suggests however that larger government has a robust and significant effect on economic growth the second key finding is that the effect of economic growth on financial development is not significantly different from zero together these two main findings indicate that the finance growth link in lac has been broken over the 1970 2014 period the empirical results inform economic debates in lac and highlight the importance of public policy to improve the finance growth relationship

a multistage model of bargaining this paper presents a simple multistage model of bargaining wherein a seller makes an offer that can be either accepted or refused if rejected the process continues how the seller s ability to make commitments affects bargaining outcomes is analysed by comparing the commitment equilibria to those arising when commitment is impossible the effects of increasing uncertainty about preferences and varying the length of the bargaining horizon are analysed the ways in which the bargaining environment can be changed to improve outcomes are discussed

banks free banks and u s economic growth the federalist financial revolution may have jump started the u s economy into modern growth but the free banking system 1837 1862 did not play a direct role in sustaining it despite lowering entry barriers and extending banking into developing regions we find in county level data that free banks had little or no effect on growth the result is not just a symptom of the era as state chartered banks seem to have strong and positive effects on manufacturing and urbanization jel g21 n21 o43

does one size fit all a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship abstract recent research has found a strong positive effect of a country s financial development on economic growth we propose that this relationship may vary according to the level of financial development divided in three regions in the low region countries with very low levels of financial development additional improvements in financial markets have an uncertain effect on growth in the intermediate region financial development has a large positive effect on growth finally in the high region the effect is positive but smaller we examine a panel of 74 countries using generalized method of moments gmm dynamic panel techniques and find support for the different regions

financial development and economic growth views and agenda this critique argues that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive first order relationship between financial development and economic growth the body of work would push even most skeptics toward the belief that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sideshow responding passively to economic growth many gaps remain however and the paper highlights areas in acute need of additional research

demand for durable and nondurable goods environmental policy and consumer welfare if a tax on energy affects the demand for a nondurable good the stock of a durable good and the proportion of the energy consumption per unit of service of the durable good an integrated approach for investigating consumer demand for durables and nondurables is required the purpose of this paper is to employ the concept of a variable expenditure function with quasi fixed durable goods as arguments in order to derive a demand system for nondurable goods in prices of the nondurables in the stocks of durables and in variable expenditure from the envelope condition desired stocks of durables can be calculated and investment demand for durables can be determined for an application we choose a variable expenditure function based on the almost ideal demand specification and evaluate alternative environmental policy measures using the equivalent variation for comparing the welfare effects

revisiting the new normal hypothesis abstract the paper estimates the impact of crises on output growth augmenting cerra and saxena s 2008 analysis by extending the data until 2010 and by taking into account globalization and contagion effects the paper finds that the decline in output growth rates following currency banking and stock market crises are much larger in the sample ending in 2010 than in the one ending in 2001 the results are robust across different specifications and crisis databases the paper finds that globalization estimated using a factor augmented panel has benefitted economic growth in the long run but those gains have been diminishing in the new millennium moreover globalization also amplifies the negative effects of crises especially for upper middle and high income oecd countries starting with the new millenium as such lower output growth is to be expected as the new norm especially in these more advanced economies for a lot longer than what would have been expected in an usual cyclical recovery confirming el erian and pimco s 2009 statement of a new normal last but not least the estimation using a factor augmented panel leads to results consistent with thresholds effects of finance and growth and of globalization on growth