the effect of ambiguity aversion on insurance and self protection in this article we derive a set of simple conditions such that ambiguity aversion always raises the demand for self insurance and the insurance coverage but decreases the demand for self protection we also characterise the optimal insurance design under ambiguity aversion and exhibit a case in which the straight deductible contract is optimal as in the expected utility model

the expansion of modern agriculture and global biodiversity decline an integrated assessment the world is banking on a major increase in food production if the dietary needs and food preferences of an increasing and increasingly rich population are to be met this requires the further expansion of modern agriculture but modern agriculture rests on a small number of highly productive crops and its expansion has led to a significant loss of global biodiversity ecologists have shown that biodiversity loss results in lower plant productivity while agricultural economists have linked biodiversity loss on farms with increasing variability of crop yields and sometimes lower mean yields in this paper we consider the macro economic consequences of the continued expansion of particular forms of intensive modern agriculture with a focus on how the loss of biodiversity affects food production we employ a quantitative structurally estimated model of the global economy which jointly determines economic growth population and food demand agricultural innovations and land conversion we show that even small effects of agricultural expansion on productivity via biodiversity loss might be sufficient to warrant a moratorium on further land conversion

profits and politics coordinating technology adoption in agriculture abstract this paper examines the political economy of government led coordination of economic activity in a simple two sector model in which individuals choice of agricultural technology affects industrialization we demonstrate the existence of multiple equilibria the economy is either characterized by the use of a traditional agricultural technology and a low level of industrialization or the use of a mechanized technology and a high level of industrialization relative to the traditional technology use of the mechanized technology increases output but leaves some population groups worse off we show that the distributional implications of choosing the mechanized technology restrict the possibility of pareto improving coordination by an elected policy maker even when we allow for income redistribution

the evolution of institutions in india and its relationship with economic growth this paper examines the evolution in a few public institutions over time in india it presents three types of evidence on institutional outcomes such as losses in power generation backlogs in disposal of court cases on perceptions based measures of governance some going back to the 1960s and finally on customs administration and whether it has been more effective at detecting evasion over time all the evidence suggests that institutional quality has not improved over time it then addresses the two way relationship between growth and institutions in terms of two apparent paradoxes the first is why growth has turned around so dramatically in india despite the relatively limited nature of reforms especially compared with other countries the second paradox is why despite nearly 30 years of rapid growth institutions have not improved the paper offers some explanations that might help explain these paradoxes

green revolution land reform and household income distribution in the philippines income of agricultural households consists of returns to labor capital and land from farming supplemented mainly by labor earnings from nonfarm sources agricultural technology affects farmers income through its effect on factor demands and factor prices which in turn induce changes in the allocation of farmers own resources to different uses income from farming is also affected by village institutions such as land tenure which governs the distribution of income between landlords and tenants as well as resource allocations

india s missing girls biology customs and economic development we review the evidence on the sex ratio among children below the age of six international evidence shows that the sex ratio at birth is slightly biased towards boys but boys suffer greater mortality a pattern consistent with darwinian evolution with economic development the male bias in the child sex ratio increases south and east india show levels and trends in the child sex ratio that are consistent with this evidence however unbalanced sex ratios in the northern and western states since the first censuses indicate discrimination against girls technological developments permitting sex selective abortions have seriously aggravated the imbalances in these states economic modelling of parental choice regarding a child s gender suggests that gender imbalances may be consistent with individual maximization and marriage market equilibrium nevertheless these choices have adverse welfare consequences which will be aggravated by the decline in population growth and consequent relaxation of the marriage squeeze

the progress of school education in india this paper provides an overview of school education in india first it places india s educational achievements in international perspective particularly against countries with which it is now increasingly compared especially china second the paper examines schooling access in terms of enrolment and school attendance rates and schooling quality in terms of literacy rates learning achievement levels school resources and teacher inputs third the paper investigates the role of private schooling in india examining the extent of growth of private schooling and surveying evidence on the relative effectiveness and unit costs of private and public schools last the paper discusses some major public education initiatives the concluding section suggests a future research agenda and appeals for rigorous evaluation of the impacts and costs of the numerous existing educational interventions in order to learn about their relative cost effectiveness for evidence based policy making

an error correction model of induced innovation in uk agriculture cointegration techniques are applied to a model of induced innovation based on the two stage constant elasticity of substitution ces production function this approach results in direct tests of the inducement hypothesis which are applied to agricultural data for the united kingdom from 1953 to 2000 the time series properties of the variables are checked cointegration is established and an error correction model ecm constructed which attempts to separate factor substitution from technological change finally the ecm formulation is subjected to causality tests which show that the factor price ratio for chemicals and land is granger prior to the factor saving bias of technological change however long run relative prices are not causally prior to the machinery labour ratio this results from perturbations in the user cost of machinery caused by oil price shocks thus the induced innovation hypothesis iih may explain long run transformations like the mechanical and fertilizer revolutions that

induced innovations and farm mechanization cal change in agriculture then they come mainly from the public agent of farm technology the agricultural research system the research system should be held responsible for the social consequences of farm mechanization and it should be budgeted and directed accordingly on the other hand if mechanization and exit from farming are caused mostly by external price and wage changes the responsibility of the research system is limited principally to technology improvement in this note we discuss the newly emerging tradition of induced innovation and its relation to the alternative explanations of machine labor substitution in agriculture we first clarify the conceptual basis of the induced innovation hypothesis and the related innovation possibility function second we call into question the validity of some of the empirical applications we argue that an incomplete conceptualization of the induced innovation idea has led to invalid empirical tests and to inappropriate implications on the causes of american farm mechanization

agriculture in the global economy agriculture is diverse and full of contradictions the sector accounts for a griculture is diverse and full of contradictions the sector accounts for a comparatively small share of the global economy but remains central comparatively small share of the global economy but remains central to the lives of a great many people in 2012 of the world s 7 1 billion to the lives of a great many people in 2012 of the world s 7 1 billion people an estimated 1 3 billion 19 percent were directly engaged in farming people an estimated 1 3 billion 19 percent were directly engaged in farming but agriculture including the relatively small hunting fi shing and forestry sectors but agriculture including the relatively small hunting fi shing and forestry sectors represented just 2 8 percent of overall income world bank 2012 however in represented just 2 8 percent of overall income world bank 2012 however in today s middle and low income countries where most of the world s farmers are today s middle and low income countries where most of the world s farmers are to be found agriculture accounts for a much greater share of national income and to be found agriculture accounts for a much greater share of national income and employment for instance in india agriculture represents 18 percent of national employment for instance in india agriculture represents 18 percent of national income and 54 percent of employment income and 54 percent of employment 1

acreage decisions under risk the case of corn and soybeans an acreage supply response model is developed under expected utility maximization the resulting framework is used to specify and estimate a system of risk responsive acreage equations for corn and soybeans in the united states particular attention is given to the truncation effects of government price supports on the distribution of corn and soybean prices also a wealth variable is included in the acreage equations the empirical results indicate that risk and wealth variables play an important role in cornsoybean acreage decisions the analysis also shows that cross commodity risk reduction is important in acreage allocation decisions

comparative statics predictions for the cross effects of central dominance changes in risk with quasilinear payoffs abstract we examine cross effects for central dominance changes in the random payoff to one activity on the willingness of a risk averter to undertake or expand a second this willingness is enhanced for quasilinear payoffs when activities are cost substitutes

comparative statics of changes in risk on monotonically and partially responsive kinked payoffs abstract this paper derives two sets of necessary and sufficient conditions on the comparative statics of changes in risk under kinked payoff functions that are monotonically responsive and partially responsive to the realization of risk respectively the former case includes the newsboy problem with backorder the latter case includes the newsboy problem without backorder and under some restrictions also includes the optimal deductible insurance problem some relatively non restrictive conditions derived from the necessary and sufficient conditions reveal that the three problems can be quite different even though they are often viewed in the literature as being congruous these conditions lead to simple predictions of the direction of change in any risk averse agent s optimal choice upon a change in risk without assuming specific functional forms for the utility function

the induced innovation hypothesis and u s public agricultural research applicability of the induced innovation hypothesis that a change in relative input prices induces innovation to economize use of the increasingly expensive input hicks 1932 is examined for u s public agricultural research a reduced form test is developed using input prices from the agricultural production sector expenditures from the public research sector aimed at developing new technology to save specific agricultural inputs and variables to control for innovation marginal cost differences and nonhomotheticity unlike recent demand side studies that soundly reject the induced innovation hypothesis for agriculture support for the hypothesis is found for several input pairings through these tests of public agricultural research using state level panel data

growth and distribution a test of the induced innovation hypothesis for the korean economy this study investigates technical change biases and their effects on distribute shars in korea we are particularly concerned with whether technical change biases have been induced by changes in relative factor prices accompanied by rapid economic growth in korea our test results show that technical change in korea has been biased in the direction in the direction for saving labour and using capital thus rendering support to the induced innovation hypothesis these findings are roughly in parallel with empirical studies on the induced innovation hypothesis for the us and japanese economies the similar pattern in technical change biases between korea and the two advanced economies is noteworthy in light of their basic differences in factor endowments another salient feature of our empirical analysis is that the price corrected labour share in korea has continually shrunk in the process of rapid economic growth which has been partly precipitated by factor price disorting policies

market based systems for reducing chemical use in agriculture in the united states this study uses a computable general equilibrium cge model of the u s economy to estimate the economic effects of agricultural fertilizer and pesticide input reductions on individual farm sectors and on the economy as a whole the costs of reducing agricultural chemicals using a market based approach and a command and control approach are compared the real cost to society of restrictng fertilizer and pesticide use by 20 percent across all uses is estimated to be 2 3 billion a market based approach that would provide incentives to reduce chemical use in the most cost efficient manner would be about 10 percent less costly

technology adoption and agricultural price policy market interventions such as price supports or fertilizer subsidies can lead to gains from speeding up adoption of new technologies but the policies distort resource allocation a framework is developed for optimizing policies in light of the adoption allocation trade off based on adoption coefficients and production parameters from third world agriculture levels and duration of policies are estimated sensitivity analyses are performed gains are small at best and may be zero or negative in view of farmer costs of adjustment and deadweight losses from taxes profit technology adoption if new technologies are desirable why not use price supports or input subsidies to encourage faster technology adoption while frequently raised in policy deliberations this question has received little serious analysis particularly neglected has been the conflict or trade off between a gains in output as producers switch from old to new technologies and b the losses from resource use distortions brought about by price policies when output prices are raised or prices of inputs such as fertilizer are lowered the

when does extra risk strictly increase an option s value it is well known that risk increases the value of options this article makes that precise in a new way the conventional theorem says that the value of an option does not fall if the underlying asset becomes riskier in the conventional sense of the mean preserving spread this article uses two new definitions of riskier to show that the value of an option strictly increases i if the underlying asset becomes pointwise riskier and ii only if the underlying asset becomes extremum riskier

third down with a yard to go recursive expected utility and the dixit skeath conundrum abstract in two outcome strictly competitive games equilibrium mixed strategies do not depend on ultimate prizes dixit and skeath games of strategy 1999 norton new york find this counter intuitive we show this invariance comes from reduction not independence and provide conditions for intuitive comparative statics under recursive expected utility

labor productivity measurement in japanese agriculture 1956 1990 abstract this paper investigates the factors responsible for a drastic decline in the growth rate of labor productivity of the agricultural sector for the 1956 1990 period this investigation is carried out by a newly devised procedure which decomposes the growth rate of labor productivity into 1 the total substitution effect which consists of the effects due to factor price changes and biased technological change and 2 the tfp effect composed of the effects due to scale economies and technological progress based on empirical estimation of the translog cost function it was found that the total substitution effect contributed to the growth of labor productivity much more than the tfp effect did for the period under question

endogenous regional agricultural production technologies technical relationships between six productive factors for ten agricultural produvction regions in the continental united states are examined the applied methodology provides a departure from conventional production methodologies contained in the literature by allowing aggregate technical relationships to be endogenized within the economic system

capital inflows financial repression and macroeconomic policy in india since the reforms since the early 1990s the indian economy has seen a considerable relaxation of controls as a consequence of which it has witnessed unprecedented growth this is especially remarkable in the external sector in this paper i evaluate the progress made on the macroeconomic front and address the possibility of opening up the capital account of the balance of payments i show that given the weakness in the financial sector and the government finances it may be dangerous to speed up the process of opening up the capital account further

demand response in indian electricity market this paper outlines a methodology for implementing cost of service regulation in retail market for electricity in india when wholesale market is liberalised and operates through an hourly spot market as in a developing country context political considerations make tariff levels more important than supply security satisfying the earmarked level of demand takes a back seat retail market regulators are often forced by politicians to keep the retail tariff at suboptimal level this imposes budget constraint on distribution companies to procure electricity that it requires to meet the earmarked level of demand this is the way demand response is introduced in the system and has its impact on spot market prices we model such a situation of not being able to serve the earmarked demand as disutility to the regulator which has to be minimised and we compute associated equilibrium this results in systematic mechanism for cutting loads we find that even a small cut in ability of the distribution companies to procure electricity from the spot market has profound impact on the prices in the spot market

discounting and growth in a growing economy investing in safe projects raises intergenerational inequalities this deteriorates social welfare because of inequality aversion as expressed by decreasing marginal utility of consumption the social discount rate can be interpreted as the minimum rate of return that is necessary to compensate for the increased inequality generated by the investment for an intuitive precautionary argument this growth effect is reduced if growth is uncertain to complete the picture if the investment raises the collective risk this discount rate should also contain a risk premium recent developments weitzman 1998 2001 2013 gollier 2008 arrow et al 2013 converge toward recommending using a smaller discount rate for safe assets maturing later in this paper i show that this recommendation applied to the risk free rate relies on the assumption that shocks on the growth rate of consumption exhibit some degree of persistence i also show that this implies in parallel an increasing term structure for the risk premium globally the risk adjusted discount rate will have a decreasing term structure only if the asset s beta is small enough

a flexible model of factor biased technological change an application to japanese agriculture abstract results indicate that when restrictive assumptions on production structure and parameter constancy are avoided and quality adjusted flow variables employed an explanation of factor biased technological change emerges that is consistent with observed patterns of factor use while substitution possibilities during this period were limited biol nearly as strong a substitute for labor as for land technological change was found to be significantly labor saving and using in biological inputs and machinery and only weakly land saving descriptions of pre world war ii technology as primarily land saving miss the significant contribution of labor saving technology in agricultural transformation and ignore the dynamics of inter sectoral factor demand

monotonicity of asset price toward higher changes in risk abstract this note gives the conditions on preferences to guarantee the monotonicity of asset prices when the payoffs of the risky asset change in the sense of the n th stochastic dominance and with an n th degree increase in risk those conditions are expressed in terms of the sign of the successive derivatives of the utility function coupled with the relative risk aversion of higher orders less than their benchmark values

global population growth technology and malthusian constraints a quantitative growth theoretic perspective we structurally estimate a two sector schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long run evolution of global population technological progress and the demand for food the estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population gdp sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010 projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress and because it is a key determinant of fertility costs significant population growth by 2100 global population reaches 12 4 billion and agricultural production doubles but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress

on abel s concept of doubt and pessimism abstract in this paper we characterize subjective probability beliefs leading to a higher equilibrium market price of risk we establish that abel s result on the impact of doubt on the risk premium is not correct in general see abel 2002 an exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns journal of economic dynamics and control 26 1075 1092 we introduce on the set of subjective probability beliefs market price of risk dominance concepts and we relate them to well known dominance concepts used for comparative statics in portfolio choice analysis in particular the necessary first order conditions on subjective probability beliefs in order to increase the market price of risk for all nondecreasing utility functions appear as equivalent to the monotone likelihood ratio property

geographic aggregation and induced innovation in american agriculture the induced innovation hypothesis is tested for the usa and western regions using cointegration procedures an error correction model separates short run and long run effects of relative price changes a significant difference in the elasticities of factor substitution along the isoquant and the innovation possibility curve implies induced innovation the estimated results support the hypothesis for washington the pacific northwest and the western region but not for the nation corroborative tests of weak exogeneity fail to support the hypothesis in any of the geographic units changes in output level and research investment do not significantly bias agricultural technology in the usa

green revolution and labour demand in rice farming the case of central luzon 1966 90 while the adoption of modern rice varieties mvs increased labour requirements for crop care and other activities it might have induced the adoption of labour saving technologies thus whether the net impact of mv adoption on labour demand is significantly positive is still debated in the green revolution literature using farm level survey data collected in central luzon from 1966 to 1990 this study estimated simultaneously the labour saving technology adoption and the labour demand functions we found among other things that mvs increased labour demand significantly without inducing the widespread adoption of labour saving technologies

research and extension expenditures and productivity in japanese agriculture 1960 1990 abstract this paper investigates the cause for the decline in the growth of productivity in japanese agriculture since the late 1960s for this objective it investigates the effects of research and extension r e activities on the extent and the direction of the bias of technological change in japanese agriculture for the period 1960 1990 based on the translog cost function framework empirical results show that the cost reducing effects of r e measured in terms of the absolute value of the cost r e elasticity increased slightly from 0 194 in 1960 to 0 205 in 1965 and then decreased consistently to 0 110 in 1990 this finding is broadly consistent with the finding of the decline or slowdown in agricultural productivity since the late 1960s the bias due to r e was found to be toward labor intermediate inputs and other inputs saving on the one hand and machinery and land using on the other labor saving and machinery using biases are consistent with the hicksian induced innovation hypothesis

supply demand and technology in a multiproduct industry texas field crops the purpose of this paper is to examine the structure of agricultural production for six texas field crops cotton grain sorghum wheat corn rice and hay which account for nearly 95 of recent field crop value specific objectives are to a test the structure of technology to determine i if output and input utilization choices for individual products are independent of production decisions about other outputs and ii if products and or inputs can be consistently aggregated b estimate a coherent set of interrelated supply functions for the six commodities and input demand functions for fertilizer and hired labor because the empirical focus of this paper is specific to one state the results will be of limited value for interpreting specific production relationships elsewhere however the problem is of common interest in production agriculture and the techniques used demonstrate an important application of dual modeling

top indian incomes 1922 2000 this article presents data on the evolution of top incomes and wages for 1922 2000 in india using individual tax return data the data show that the shares of the top 0 01 percent 0 1 percent and 1 percent in total income shrank substantially from the 1950s to the early to mid 1980s but then rose again so that today these shares are only slightly below what they were in the 1920s and 1930s this u shaped pattern is broadly consistent with the evolution of economic policy in india from the 1950s to the early to mid 1980s was a period of socialist policies in india whereas the subsequent period starting with the rise of rajiv gandhi saw a gradual shift toward more pro business policies although the initial share of the top income group was small the fact that the rich were getting richer had a nontrivial impact on the overall income distribution although the impact is not large enough to fully explain the gap observed during the 1990s between average consumption growths shown in national sample survey based data and the national accounts based data it is sufficiently large to explain a non negligible part of it

the changing pattern of foreign trade specialization in indian manufacturing this paper examines the pattern of international trade specialization in indian manufacturing since the mid 1980s by using data on trade flows low technology sectors still dominate the categories for which india exhibits the largest degree of trade specialization by contrast high technology sectors are prevalent among the categories for which india is import dependent significantly india has experienced an improvement in the degree of specialization in some of the most dynamic sectors of world trade

is india s economic growth leaving the poor behind there has been much debate about how much india s poor have shared in the economic growth unleashed by economic reforms in the 1990s the authors argue that india has probably maintained its 1980s rate of poverty reduction in the 1990s however there is considerable diversity in performance across states this holds some important clues for understanding why economic growth has not done more for india s poor india s economic growth in the 1990s has not been occurring in the states where it would have the most impact on poverty nationally if not for the sectoral and geographic imbalance of growth the national rate of growth would have generated a rate of poverty reduction that was double india s historical trend rate states with relatively low levels of initial rural development and human capital development were not well suited to reduce poverty in response to economic growth the study s results are consistent with the view that achieving higher aggregate economic growth is only one element of an effective strategy for poverty reduction in india the sectoral and geographic composition of growth is also important as is the need to redress existing inequalities in human resource development and between rural and urban areas

estimating farm level input demand and wheat supply in the indian punjab using a translog profit function application of the translog profit function to farm level data from punjab india allowed a more disaggregated analysis of the farm production structure compared to the case of cobb douglas formulation the flexibility afforded by translog formulation permitted measurement of the different impacts that exogenous variables have within and across input demand and output supply functions policy relevant elasticity estimates with respect to variable inputs and output prices fixed inputs a few soil related state of nature variables measured by soil analysis and education which are usually considered constraints to farm production were obtained and two examples of policy applications were developed

india s development in the era of growth the recent growth pattern of india is set in the context of the parallel experience of china the experience of poverty reduction is reviewed and a number of papers illuminating india s development are introduced

portfolio choice under noisy asset returns abstract the lack of a clear effect of increases in risk upon the demand for risky assets has led to many restrictions on the types of risk increases and or on consumer preferences in order to obtain unambiguous comparative statics this paper examines the particularly simple yet overlooked case of white noise added to the return distribution it is shown that kimball s standard risk aversion is sufficient for noise to lead to reduced demand for risky assets

defining bad news changes in return distributions that decrease risky asset demand we provide a random variable characterization of the necessary and sufficient conditions for a shift of the distribution of rate of return on the risky asset in the two asset portfolio problem to reduce demand for all strictly risk averse expected utility maximizing investors we also provide random variable characterizations of the shifts that reduce both demand and expected utility for all strictly risk averse investors

investment in risky r d programs in the face of climate uncertainty we analyze how the socially optimal technology rd and that uncertainty in damages interacts with uncertainty in the returns to rd and r d that reduces the emissions to output ratio and argue that this is a good representation of r d into fossil fuel technologies for r d programs into non carbon technologies optimal investment is higher in riskier programs our empirical model indicates that the optimal investment in a risky program is about 3 1 2 times larger than in a program with certain returns for r d programs aimed at reducing emissions in fossil fuel based technologies our results show that qualitatively investment is higher in less risky programs under most uncertain damage scenarios our empirical model shows however that the risk profile of fossil fuel based r d programs generally has little quantitative impact on optimal investment the exception is that when the probability of a catastrophe inducing full abatement is very high investment is about twice as high in risky programs compared to programs with certain returns

portfolio choices and asset prices the comparative statics of ambiguity aversion we investigate the comparative statics of more ambiguity aversion as defined by klibanoff marinacci and mukerji 2005 in the context of the static two asset portfolio problem it is not true in general that more ambiguity aversion reduces the demand for the uncertain asset we exhibit some sufficient conditions to guarantee that ceteris paribus an increase in ambiguity aversion reduces the demand for the ambiguous asset and raises the equity premium for example this is the case when the set of plausible distributions of returns can be ranked according to the monotone likelihood ratio order we also show how ambiguity aversion distorts the price kernel in the alternative portfolio problem with complete markets for contingent claims

welfare impacts of alternative public policies for agricultural pollution control in an open economy a general equilibrium framework a general equilibrium approach is used to evaluate the welfare impacts of alternative policies for reducing agricultural pollution in an open economy with preexisting distortions caused by income taxes and agricultural subsidies the policies examined here include the removal of distortionary agricultural subsidies we find that even though these distortions are small compared to others in the economy removing them and imposing nitrogen reduction subsidies and or output taxes can enhance welfare and reduce nitrogen pollution thereby leading to a substantial double dividend the relative efficiency of the alternative policies examined here depends on the level of the nitrogen reduction target copyright 2008 oxford university press

decreasing aversion under ambiguity abstract under which condition does the set of desirable uncertain prospects expand when wealth increases we show that the decreasing concavity dc of the utility function u is necessary and sufficient in the maxmin expected utility model in the smooth ambiguity aversion model with the ambiguity valuation function the dc of u and of u is necessary and sufficient an alternative classical definition of decreasing aversion is based on the hypothesis that the investment in a risky asset is increasing in wealth we show that this hypothesis does not hold in general under ambiguity aversion and that one needs to constrain the structure of ambiguity to obtain unambiguous results

a delayed revolution environment and agrarian change in india slow growth of agricultural income has contributed to poor economic growth and poverty in india in modern times the condition was weakened by green revolutions in the last third of the twentieth century conventional accounts attribute the stagnation to institutions created during colonial rule in india this article suggests instead that it derived from an environmental constraint the green revolutions succeeded partly because state aid enabled peasants to overcome the constraint in some regions

specification of production functions for analyzing technical change and factor inputs in agricultural development abstract this paper focuses on some vital issues involed in specifying the number of variables to be included in agriculture s production function and on the functional form that the agricultural production function should assume in the context of a computable general equilibrium model when land and intermediate inputs seeds and fertilizers as well as capital and labor are included modeling the agricultural sector can best be done in a more disaggregated format than simple cobb douglas or ces specifications after examining the transcendental logarithmic production function the paper proposes to adopt nested ces specifications on the basis of empirically observed elasticities of substitution

multiple input multiple output production choices and technology in the u s wheat region duality theory motivates a translog expected profit function consistent with multiple products price uncertainty preseason climate constraints acreage control policies and possibly nonhomothetic technology although multiple outputs are allowed enterprise specific data is not necessary instead time series measures of output revenues and expected prices input expenses and prices and fixed input flows are employed appropriate measures of elasticities of choice returns to size and biases in technological change are derived results indicated decreasing returns to size rather limited though complementary responsiveness of choices to price changes and the nature of biases in technological changes

the structure of u s agricultural technology 1910 78 this paper utilizes 1910 78 time series data and a single product aggregate translog profit function to measure the structure of u s agricultural technology duality relations are used to devise a multifactor measure of biased technical change a measure of nonhomotheticity is introduced which indicates the effects scale change has had on aggregate cost shares the empirical analysis finds that different nonhomothetic technologies characterized the prewar and postwar periods differing technical change biases are consistent with relative price trends during the two periods showing that the long run structure of u s agricultural technology has been consistent with the hayami ruttan induced innovation theory

agricultural production technologies with systematic and stochastic technical change a production system modeling tool is developed that implements recent work on autoregressive and endogenous stochastic production technologies associated with generalized fechner thurstone gft optimizing functions a gft class production system is used to evaluate the empirical support for technology specifications inherent in the neoclassical theoretic structure of an agricultural production region little likelihood support is found for zero serial correlation elimination of systematic technology changers from the production system strict neoclassical production technologies hicks neutral technical change or zero homogenous factor demand functions

optimal choice and beliefs with ex ante savoring and ex post disappointment we propose a new decision criterion under risk in which individuals extract both utility from anticipatory feelings ex ante and disutility from disappointment ex post the decision maker chooses his degree of optimism given that more optimism raises both the utility of ex ante feelings and the risk of disappointment ex post we characterize the optimal beliefs and the preferences under risk generated by this mental process and apply this criterion to a simple portfolio choice insurance problem we show that these preferences are compatible with first degree and second degree stochastic dominance and yield a preference for early resolution of uncertainty furthermore they are consistent with observed violations of the independence axiom such as the preference reversal in the allais paradox and predict that the decision maker takes on less risk compared to an expected utility maximizer our decision criterion can thus help explain the equity premium puzzle and the preference for low deductibles in insurance contracts

testing the induced innovation hypothesis an error correction model of south african agriculture abstract this paper applies cointegration techniques to a model of induced innovation based on the two stage constant elasticity of substitution ces production function this approach results in direct tests of the inducement hypothesis which are applied to data for south african commercial agriculture for the period 1947 1991 south african data is used because the policy changes have been substantial enough that the factor and price ratios have turning points rather than being monotonic the time series properties of the variables are checked cointegration is established and an error correction model ecm constructed allowing factor substitution to be separated from technological change finally the ecm formulation is subjected to causality tests which show that both the factor price ratios and r d and extension expenditures are granger prior to the factor saving biases of technological change thus each stage of the analysis corroborates the inducement hypothesis however straightforward price inducement is only part of the explanation of changes in factor ratios policy induced innovation in response to tax concessions and subsidised credit is also present

mean variance preferences and investor behaviour we study the comparative statics implications of mean variance preferences for optimal portfolios specifically we show that all risk averse mean variance investors raise their investment in a risky asset in response to a change in that asset s return distribution if and only if the change lowers both the mean and standard deviation of the return by the same percentage besides being of interest in its own right our results allow us to compare some comparative statics implications and the expected utility and mean variance models systematically

the comparative statics of changes in risk revisited abstract in this paper we consider the problem of determining the conditions under which a change in risk increases the optimal value of a decision variable for all risk averse agents for a large class of payoff functions we obtain the least constraining necessary and sufficient condition on the change in risk for signing its effect without any additional restriction on the utility function than risk aversion it entails all existing sufficient conditions as particular cases our results are applied to the linear model which describes the standard portfolio problem the necessary and sufficient condition for unambiguous comparative statics in this class of problems is termed greater central riskiness cr it is shown that cr dominance is neither stronger nor weaker than second degree stochastic dominance journal of economic literature classification number d81

global economic growth and agricultural land conversion under uncertain productivity improvements in agriculture we study how stochasticity in the evolution of agricultural productivity interacts with economic and population growth at the global level we use a two sector schumpeterian model of growth in which a manufacturing sector produces the traditional consumption good and an agricultural sector produces food to sustain contemporaneous population agriculture demands land as an input itself treated as a scarce form of capital in our model both population and sectoral technological progress are endogenously determined and key technological parameters of the model are structurally estimated using 1960 2010 data on world gdp population cropland and technological progress introducing random shocks to the evolution of total factor productivity in agriculture we show that uncertainty optimally requires more land to be converted into agricultural use as a hedge against production shortages and that it significantly affects both optimal consumption and population trajectories

a translog cost function analysis of u s agriculture 1939 77 over the past four decades major changes have occurred in u s agriculture a new era in agricultural production in the united states began in 1939 world war ii gave a boost to agriculture still bogged in the depression productivity increases over the period 1939 77 have been quite impressive measured crudely by the ratio of the indices of output and input the productivity index 1967 100 increased from 59 in 1939 to 119 in 1977 to study this phenomenon a multi input translog cost function incorporating hicks neutral technical change hntc was specified annual timeseries data for the united states was used to estimate the model neoclassical duality theory provides an approach for computing the pairwise elasticities of substitution between inputs for each year as well as the annual own and cross price elasticities of demand for inputs

biased technological change and factor demand in postwar japanese agriculture 1958 84 abstract the objective of this study is to gain a better understanding of factor substitutions in postwar japanese agriculture by shedding special light on biased technological change such biased technological change is first measured then associated with the movements of factor prices and then tested for the hicksian induced innovation hypothesis in addition a decomposition analysis is carried out in order to quantitatively examine the importance of the biased effects for determining changes in factor cost shares and factor proportions during the 1958 84 period a slightly modified stevenson greene model of the translog cost function is employed this model has at least two important advantages over ordinary translog cost functions first it incorporates time into the model such that all coefficients of the ordinary translog cost function may change over time this is more realistic than the ordinary translog cost function which assumes that all coefficients are constant over the period of estimation another attractive feature is that it enables us to test the induced innovation hypothesis directly the model is applied to the 1958 84 period by making use of farm level data the results show that technological change was biased towards saving labor and other inputs and using machinery intermediate inputs and land this biased technological change is found to be in principle consistent with the induced innovation hypothesis furthermore it is shown through decomposition analyses that the biased technological change had significant impacts on changes in factor cost shares and factor proportions during these years the empirical results of this study imply that technological change in japanese agriculture has in general proceeded in a manner consistent with factor endowments conditions since the late 1950s an implication of this study for agriculture in less developed countries is that agricultural policies seeking development through technological progress should be carried out so as to take advantage of peculiar factor endowments conditions in the individual countries

stochastic volatility implies fourth degree risk dominance applications to asset pricing abstract what is the contribution of stochastic volatility to the resolution of asset pricing puzzles i demonstrate that increasing the risk surrounding the variance of future consumption does not change its unconditional variance but it generates a fourth degree risk deterioration in future consumption yielding in particular an increase in its excess kurtosis if shocks to the volatility of consumption growth are persistent the term structure of annualized excess kurtosis is increasing in a lucas economy with a eu representative agent this increases the aggregate risk premium if and only if the fourth derivative of the utility function u is negative and it makes its term structure increasing persistent stochastic volatility also reduces the interest rate if and only if the fifth derivative of u is positive and it makes its term structure decreasing these conditions are satisfied under constant relative risk aversion and these results are robust to epstein zin preferences we show that persistent stochastic volatility is supported by the evidence that the excess kurtosis of consumption growth is positive and has an increasing term structure using quarterly growth data in the u s between 1947 and 2016

induced bias of technical change in agriculture the united states and japan 1880 1980 because of extreme differences in factor endowments and price ratios among factors between the united states and japan both countries have experienced sharply different patterns of factor use and productivity growth in agriculture for the past 100 years of modern economic growth in this study the method of testing the hicksian hypothesis of induced innovation was developed using the two level ces production function the model was applied to the historical data of u s and japanese agricultural development for 1880 1980 the results were consistent with the hypothesis that different patterns of technical change in the two countries were induced by differences in the levels and the movements in relative factor prices

induced innovation and marginal cost of new technology abstract lacking data on development and implementation costs for input saving technologies we develop a nonparametric procedure to estimate relative differences in marginal technology costs for technical change to be consistent with the induced innovation hypothesis we apply it to u s agriculture

substitution and income effects for increases in risk abstract comparative statics effects for rothschild stiglitz increases in risk can be decomposed into substitution and income effects associated with diamond stiglitz compensated increases in risk and first degree deterministic transformations providing an avenue for understanding conflicting responses to increases in risk

monotone comparative statics under uncertainty this paper analyzes monotone comparative statics predictions in several classes of stochastic optimization problems the main results characterize necessary and sufficient conditions for comparative statics predictions to hold based on properties of primitive functions that is utility functions and probability distributions the results apply when the primitives satisfy one of the following two properties i a single crossing property which arises in applications such as portfolio investment problems and auctions or ii log supermodularity which arises in the analysis of demand functions affiliated random variables stochastic orders and orders over risk aversion

the no loss offset provision and the attitude towards risk of a risk neutral firm abstract this paper examines how discrete tax brackets induce an otherwise risk neutral firm to behave in a very specific risk averse manner we show how the firm s investment decisions relate to various factors such as other firm revenue tax rates tax exemption levels and project risk in particular such a firm is shown to exhibit first order risk aversion with a possible zero demand for a risky investment even when the expected excess return is positive firm behavior displays risk aversion that is in some sense increasing in firm profits at low profit levels and decreasing at high profit levels

induced innovation in u s agriculture time series direct econometric and nonparametric tests the hypothesis of induced innovation is tested for u s agriculture using a high quality state level panel data set and three disparate testing techniques time series direct econometric and nonparametric we find little support for the hypothesis that conclusion is robust across testing techniques however as with all empirical tests of this hypothesis conducted to date ours focus only on the demand side of the hypothesis the hypothesis could have been rejected simply because the marginal cost of developing and implementing input saving technologies for the relatively expensive inputs is greater than for the relatively cheap inputs copyright 2009 oxford university press

uniform and non uniform second best input taxes we investigate second best input based taxes foragricultural nonpoint pollution control when marketprices are endogenous and production isheterogeneous theoretically we derive the optimalforms of taxes which take account of heterogeneity non uniform taxes and a tax which does not auniform tax empirically we use a multi factor market equilibrium simulation model to determineoptimal tax rates and associated equity effects particularly differences in landowner gains lossesacross a heterogeneous region when market prices areendogenous second best tax policies result inpecuniary externalities that affect existingenvironmental externalities in particular thepecuniary externalities amplify the effect of producerheterogeneity on determination of sub regionaldifferences in tax rates and returns to land particularly for the uniform policy with endogenousprices the uniform tax rate is considerably higherthan any of the non uniform rates and ironically thenon uniform taxes result in less dispersion oflandowner gains across sub regions than the uniformtax

portfolio choice in personal equilibrium abstract this paper finds that in portfolio choice where reference point arises endogenously in personal equilibria investors behave as if they had a concave probability weighting function this finding establishes a link between the reference dependent utility and the rank dependent utility theories

land reform and agricultural productivity in india a review of the evidence in this paper we review as well as contribute to the empirical literature on the impact of land reform on agricultural productivity in india we find that overall for all states land reform legislation had a negative and significant effect on agricultural productivity however this hides considerable variation across types of land reform as well as variation across states decomposing by type of land reform the main driver for this negative effect seems to be land ceiling legislation in contrast the effect of tenancy reform averaged across all states is insignificant there seems to be a wide range of state specific effects which suggests that focusing on average treatment effects can hide a considerable amount of heterogeneity in particular allowing a separate slope for west bengal one of the few states that implemented tenancy laws rigorously we find that land reform had a marginal positive effect relative to the rest of india

the output bias of technological change in postwar japanese agriculture in order to explain the rapid change in the output mix this study tests the hypothesis that technological change in postwar japanese agriculture was biased towards livestock production a multioutput translog cost function was estimated for the 1958 84 period in which results are consistent with the hypothesis furthermore changes in the composition of crop and livestock production had significant impacts on relative factor uses above all expanding livestock production required relatively less labor than expanding crop production implying a positive contribution to the rapid exodus of labor to the nonagricultural sectors

a note on portfolio dominance dominated if it reduces the demand for the risky asset by all risk averse agents irrespective of the risk fiee rate we show that the condition obtained by landsberger and meilijson 1993 while necessary is not sufficient for portfolio dominance and we present an exact necessary and sufficient condition