international real interest rate equalization a multivariate time series approach this paper investigates the dynamic behaviour of monthly ex post real interest rates from several countries over the period 1980 to 1991 it is found that real interest rates are stationary over this period and that deviations from real interest parity are significant in the short run but disappear in the long run the latter evidence is established using the concept of co dependent time series proposed by gourieroux and peaucelle 1989 for the analysis of multivariate stationary time series

costs and benefits of investment in electronic design abstract appraising any investment requires reliable quantification of the costs and benefits associated with the project this paper addresses the measurement of the value of investment in design in electronic industries it discusses a staged approach to the measurement of costs and benefits within the design activity itself and resulting from changes in downstream activities in manufacturing and test it considers the problems of estimating revenues resulting from strategic implications of investment in design and suggests a possible approach to evaluating those benefits difficult to quantity

flexibility and uncertainty the preserving of flexibility when faced with uncertainty is a neglected aspect of behaviour under risk yet it is an important factor in decisions to hold liquid assets or delay irreversible investment this paper formalizes the notion of flexibility in a sequential decision context and relates its value to the amount of information an agent expects to receive a rudimentary money demand model is developed embodying these ideas and the history of flexibility as an economic concept is traced choices are frequently made between alternatives that imply different degrees of future commitment between a short term investment that leaves future options open for example and a long term one that by its very nature forecloses those options the relative attractiveness of the two depends on their probability distributions of payoffs over time a basic consideration in this choice is the recognition that beliefs about the risks governing these payoffs may change current doubts may be partially resolved in the near future this prospect decreases the attractiveness of the longer term commitment in that one is able to respond less fully to new information and even if it does not directly affect the risks associated with shorter term choices enhances their appeal this paper formalizes the above remarks by establishing connections between the following two partial orderings the first is an ordering based on variability of beliefs one set of beliefs is more variable than another if more final risk is resolved at an intermediate stage the more one expects to learn by an intermediate period relative to what one knows today the more variation one is anticipating in beliefs about the final outcome the second is an ordering of current actions or positions based on flexibility one position is more flexible than another if it leaves available a larger set of future positions at any given level of cost these two orderings are incorporated in a simple sequential decision model to suggest the following behavioural principle the more variable are a decision maker s beliefs the more flexible is the position he will choose this principle potentially applies whenever i there will be opportunities to act after further information is received and ii current actions influence either the attractiveness or availability of different future actions

hicks s thread out of the equilibrium labyrinth the work of john hicks is an unending source of inspiration for many economists and an unsolved dilemma for historians of economic thought these pages highlight the fact that hicks peculiar perspective on the economic agent constitutes the substructure underlying his research path and the common premise to his theories of markets liquidity capital and risk hicks theory of the agent was intended to address the factual role of non measurable risk i e learning management and was primarily concerned with the price and wealth effects that the transaction costs costs of learning and moving entail for learning induced behaviours

deviations from purchasing power parity in the long run this paper demonstrates that deviations from purchasing power parity reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data since this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper proposes an alternative explanation which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism this paper will demonstrate that deviations from purchasing power parity ppp reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible exchange rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper therefore proposes an alternative explanation which does not presuppose free trade in goods but which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism the major implication of the theory and the results is that ppp is as likely to be violated in the long as in the short run as an empirical matter deviations from ppp can be observed for most currencies at any instant see kravis et al 21 stockman 37 and genberg 15 among others these deviations are typically both cumulative and persistent the real exchange rate can remain on either side of parity for lengthy but variable time intervals of a year or more as a consequence the current consensus shared

the irreversibility effect in environmental decisionmaking we provide a new more general definition for the irreversibility effect and demonstrate its relevance to problems involving environmental and other decisions under uncertainty we establish several analytical and numerical results that suggest both that the effect holds more widely than generally recognized and that an existing result epstein s theorem giving a sufficient condition for determining whether the effect holds can be applied more widely than previously indicated in particular to problems involving intertemporally nonseparable benefit functions we further show that a low elasticity of intertemporal substitution will however result in failure of the effect

theory based measurement of the saving investment correlation with an application to norway i introduction the findings of feldstein and horioka 19c 0 have led to numerous theoretical and empirical papers on the close correlation between domestic saving and domestic investment and its supposed implications for international capital mobility feldstein and horioka 1980 317 state that with perfect world capital mobility there should be no relation between domestic saving and domestic investment saving in each country responds to the worldwide opportunities for investment while investment in that country is financed by the worldwide pool of capital however in a cross country regression using period averaged saving and investment figures for sixteen oecd countries they obtain a significant coefficient close to unity and conclude that capital is rather immobile this result constitutes the feldstein horicka puzzle as it contradicts the widely held perception that capital is highly mobile across countries subsequent empirical work confirmed the close correlation though its implication for the degree of capital mobility is a moot point see tesar 1991 this paper contributes to the understanding of the puzzle on both theoretical and empirical counts first we present a theory based econometric specification for estimating saving investment correlations second we discuss the possible usefulness of the estimates for detecting capital mobility third we provide empirical results for the interesting case of norway we argue that feldstein and horioka s basic idea that the saving investment correlation contains information about international capital mobility is correct but that the interpretation of the estimated correlation value must be altered substantially in view of the results derived from modern macroeconomic models our research is motivated by the observation that various regression equations have been used to measure the saving investment correlation but that none of them has a firm theoretical foundation this in turn raises questions about the interpretation and comparability of the existing empirical results we propose an econometric specification that is founded in intertemporal general equilibrium models in which agents optimize under intertemporal budget constraints we show that time series studies have estimated misspecified equations and that cross section studies are seriously flawed because they neglect dynamics as a result the puzzle may turn out to be an artifact caused by measurement errors however the significance of reliable measurement of saving investment correlations goes beyond solving the feldstein horioka puzzle because they represent stylized facts open economy models should explain norway serves as a suitable example to cement our methodological arguments with empirical evidence thanks to its system of capital controls which were phased out during the 1970s and 1980s the oil discoveries and its small size we demonstrate that the failure to take structural breaks into account seriously distorts the picture making a strong case for careful diagnostic testing our main empirical result is that the feldstein horioka puzzle does not exist for norway the paper proceeds as follows in section ii we briefly summarize the state of the discussion regarding feldstein and horioka s findings in section iii we derive our specification from the theory compare it to the previous specifications and discuss how to make inferences about capital mobility in section iv we sketch major developments in the post war norwegian economy notably the abolition of capital controls and the emergence of the important oil sector section v presents the empirical results section vi summarizes and concludes ii the feldstein horioka puzzle many authors have confirmed feldstein and horioka s result of a high and stable correlation of saving and investment for oecd countries both in cross country studies and in time series studies

costly and bounded rationality in individual and team decision making the savage paradigm of rational decision making under uncertainty has become the dominant model of human behavior in mainstream economics and game theory however under the rubric of bounded rationality this model has been criticized as inadequate form both normative and descriptive viewpoints this paper sketches the historical roots and some current development of this movement distinguishing between attempts to extend the savage paradigm costly rationality and the need for more radical departures truly bounded rationality copyright 2000 by oxford university press

the collapse of purchasing power parities during the 1970 s one of the striking facts concerning the relationship beiveen prices and exchange rates during the 1970 s has been the dismal performance of the predictions of the simple versions of the purchasing power parity doctrine ppp that doctrine in its absolute version states that the equilibrium exchange rate between domestic and foreign currencies equals the ratio of domestic to foreign price levels the relative version of the doctrine relates equilibrium changes in exchange rates to changes in the ratio of domestic to foreign prices during the 1970 s short run changes in exchange rates bore little relationship to short run differentials in national inflation rates and frequently divergences from purchasing power parities have been cumulative this paper reviews and analyzes the empirical record of exchange rates and prices during the 1970 s and the analysis is based on the experience of the dollar pound the dollar frecch franc and the dollar dm exchange rates section 2 presents the evidence on ppp during the 1970 s and contrasts it with the evidence from the 1920 s a period during which the doctrine held up reasonably well this analysis is relevant for assessing whether the flexible exchange rate system was successful in providing national economies with an added degree of insulation from foreign shocks and whether it provided policymakers with an added instrument for the conduct of macroeconomic policy the evidence regarding devia tions from purchasing power parities is also relevant for determining whether there is a case for managed float section 3 attempts to explain what went wrong with

the pricing of forward contracts for foreign exchange this paper investigates the nature of observed deviations from the unbiased expectations hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market if these deviations are due to risk premia then the same premia should be observed in nominal bonds denominated in different currencies this condition imposes testable restrictions on the parameters of a multivariate regression model the empirical results are consistent with a world in which time varying risk premia cause the observed deviations from unbiased expectations

uncertain irreversibility information and transformation costs abstract the problem of allocation of a given stock of land between two alternatives uses preservation and development is analyzed in a two period model with initial uncertainty about future benefits of those uses and about the irreversibility of development arrival of information at the end of the first period and costs of changing the allocation of the resource it is shown how the consideration of those costs may imply results that do not coincide with the ones presented in the previous literature on irreversibility

the performance of ndf carry trades this paper investigates the performance of carry trade strategies for currencies with non deliverable forward ndf contracts we find that carry trades for currencies with ndf contracts are associated with higher sharpe ratios compared to carry trades for currencies with deliverable forward df contracts we also find that during the recent financial crisis df carry trades incur heavy losses while ndf carry trades realize insignificant losses df carry trade payoffs are shaped by credit risk global foreign exchange fx volatility and crash risk in contrast ndf carry trade payoffs are driven by global fx volatility and crash risk liquidity risk and currency convertibility risk measured by deviations from covered interest parity in offshore markets while global convertibility risk has a limited effect on carry trades

a note on exchange rate expectations and nominal interest differentials a test of the fisher hypothesis this note tests the hypothesis that nominal interest differentials between similar assets denominated in different currencies can be explained entirely by the expected change in the exchange rate over the holding period this proposition often called the fisher open hypothesis or the hypothesis of perfect asset substitutability has been a major component of recent theories of exchange rate determination and has important implications for monetary policy 1 the fisher hypothesis differs from the covered interest parity theorem enunciated by keynes 11 while covered interest parity equates the nominal interest differential between financial centers to a known premium or discount on forward foreign exchange and is thus in principle riskless fisher parity involves risk in an essential way the two conditions are equivalent only when forward exchange rates equal expected future spot rates recent theoretical work for example that of grauer litzenberger and stehle 8 kouri 12 and frankel 6 shows that this need not be the case when market participants are risk averse thus while covered interest parity must always hold exactly in an informationally efficient asset market with no transactions costs fisher parity need not nominal interest differentials may reflect risk premia in addition to expected exchange rate movements 2 it should be emphasized at the outset that the tests conducted in this paper are really joint tests of the fisher hypothesis and a weak form of foreign exchange market informational efficiency levich 14 has argued that tests of market efficiency are always joint tests involving some hypothesized structure of normal equilibrium returns below we assume informational efficiency and instead test fisher s hypothesized arbitrage condition that nominal interest differentials equal expected percentage changes in exchange rates

competitive incentives for manufacturing flexibility abstract a game theoretic model is used in this paper to analyze firms incentives to acquire product flexibility the degree of product flexibility is determined by the cost a firm must incur to produce a new product the model helps to identify characteristics of industries which are likely to encourage product flexibility strategies the model suggests that firms in industries where the ratio of price to variable cost is high are likely to expend more effort to increase product flexibility this hypothesis is then tested empirically

north south lending and endogenous domestic capital market inefficiencies abstract we develop an open economy model of intertemporal trade under asymmetric information capital market imperfections are endogenous and depend on a country s stage of economic development relative to the perfect information benchmark north south capital flows are dampened and possibly reversed and world interest rates are lower whereas riskless rates are equalized across borders the domestic loan rate is higher in poorer countries the model can be applied to a number of policy issues including the debt overhang problem the indexation of foreign public debts and the effect of income distribution on growth

optimal investment strategies for flexible resources considering pricing and correlated demands we study the optimal resource investment decision faced by a two product price setting firm that operates in a monopolistic setting and employs a postponed pricing scheme the firm has the option to invest in dedicated resources as well as a more expensive flexible resource that can satisfy both products while the resource investment decision is made under demand uncertainty pricing and resource allocation decisions are postponed to the time when demand curves are realized our analysis provides the structure of the firm s optimal resource investment strategy as a function of demand parameters and investment costs and shows that the flexible resource investment decision follows athreshold policy we also show that it can be optimal for the firm to invest in the flexible resource even when demand patterns are perfectly positively correlated the reason for flexible capacity investment in this case is financial rather than risk pooling on the other hand we show that it can be optimal for the firm not to invest in the flexible resource even when demand patterns are perfectly negatively correlated the flexible resource investment decision in this case depends on the profitability of the two products based on our analysis we provide principles on the firm s optimal resource investment decision

looking for a guide to protect the environment the development of the precautionary principle abstract if the precautionary principle is to become the guide of the international community for environmental protection policies an economic interpretation of the principle is in order the analysis of case studies and a survey of the recent decision theoretic literature show the lack of a fully satisfactory economic model more generally various theoretical and empirical results show that the principle cannot be assumed to apply a priori though it has been proposed by international treaties as a rule of thumb for situations of scientific uncertainty the precautionary principle could actually be inefficient

regulatory actions under adjustment costs and the resolution of scientific uncertainty food system regulators often decide whether to ban existing practices or approve new technologies without conclusive scientific evidence on possible damage and knowing that resolution is likely in the future in a model with three decision points and stochastic resolution of uncertainty we study interactions between expected losses due to regulation and information availability when a regulator is deciding on an early reversible ban and on a later reversible ban adjustment costs create inertia concerning intermediate signals such that earlier decisions are not overturned and also a bias against imposing an early ban the prospect of more later stage information can increase or decrease the incentive to ban early but research decreases the incentive to ban early

the stages of the policy process and the equal rights amendment 1972 1982 studies of how social movements impact policy outcomes typically treat policy change as a dichotomous phenomenon a governmental unit either adopts or does not adopt a particular policy in a particular time frame this simplistic view of the policy process runs the risk of masking how movements and other factors matter at various stages of the policy process each stage is characterized by different rules and different consequences thus movements and other factors ought to matter differently at each stage the authors examine three stages of policy development with regard to state ratification of the equal rights amendment results show that movements mattered more to legislative decisions in the earlier stages of the policy process but that their effects were eclipsed in later stages by public opinion

an empirical investigation of the determinants of national interest rates differences abstract under floating exchange rates countries are supposed to be able to follow independent monetary policies while exchange and interest rates are free to adapt to expectations and new information this note investigates over the recent period of floating exchange rates whether interest rate differences are caused by expectations of exchange rate fluctuations international arbitrage model or differences in domestic economic policies domestic model or both simultaneously a domestic interest rate determination model has to be postulated and a classical fisherian relation was selected even with such a simple domestic model the driving force in setting interest rate seems to be domestic rather than international this result could be explained by international market inefficiencies but more probably by the fact that exchange rate variations are so unpredictable that their expectations play a little role in setting differences between national interest rates

age structure politics and cross national patterns of public pension expenditures this study examines the determinants of spending on public pensions unlike other programs pensions benefit an easily identifiable high voting group the aged and may be especially amenable to their political influence with that in mind we draw out predictions of industrialism and class theories for the explanation of public pension expenditures the explanations are tested with data on 48 nations at all levels of political and economic development for four time points 1960 1965 1970 1975 pooling the data allows multivariate analysis of appropriate determinants both within and across different groups of nations and detailed analysis of advanced industrial democracies industrialism variables such as percent aged social insurance program experience andfamily size have dominant effects however the effects of percent aged increase with political democracy suggesting that the aged wield political power in increasing pension expenditures class variables in contrast have little or no effect on pensions suggesting the importance of age politics over class politics in the spending for this program

long term covered interest parity evidence from currency swaps abstract this paper constructs long term arbitrage conditions using a now well developed mechanism for hedging long term currency positions the currency swap using the arbitrage conditions bond yields denominated in different currencies are compared across the onshore markets of canada japan germany switzerland the united kingdom and the united states and within the euromarket the evidence indicates that long term financial capital is as mobile across these markets as is short term capital this appears to be the case both within the euromarket and across political jurisdictions

on the political economy of welfare expansion a comparative analysis of 18 advanced capitalist democracies 1960 1971 this article elaborates the thesis that economic growth and various types of collective action by class linked actors determine the expansion and decline of welfare spending in rich capitalist democracies our multivariate model of this thesis specified to 1960 1971 growth rates in direct cash transfer payments as proportions of gross domestic product is supported strongly by regression analyses these indicate that economic growth notably facilitates transfer payment growth they also suggest that rightist party participation in government notably dampens welfare expansion while leftist centrist and christian democratic party participation in government are conducive to welfare expansion and they suggest that the political influences of both unions and large industrial corporations are conducive to growth in transfers payments as well in addition state authorities appear to augment welfare spending in response to working class protests strike activity and capital investment disinvestment activ

flexibility and the theory of the firm abstract the object of this paper is 1 to bring together and integrate the various concepts of flexibility found in the economic literature 2 to flesh out the meaning of various aspects of flexibility and their implications thereby bridging the gap between the existing highly abstract theories and the empirical facts and 3 in the process to give a rich and comprehensive enough description of an industry to stimulate further theoretical as well as empirical work the study tries to combine inductive and deductive reasoning using empirical observations based on indepth interviews with manufacturers in the metalworking industry in the united states and sweden

covered interest arbitrage in the 1970 s abstract this paper provides an empirical overview on covered interest arbitrage during the flexible exchange rate regime of the 1970 s it estimates the cost of transactions in foreign exchange and security markets and shows that these costs account for most of the deviations from parity

science class and the welfare state a class centered functional account this article offers comparative analysis of economists role in new deal labor relations and social welfare policie to suggest a class centered functional hypothesis in the absence of a historically strong socialist labor movement state reliance on social science expertise occurs to the extent that it is functional for the reproduction of capitalism its markets and its market ideology the hypothesis differs from traditional neo marxist accounts of state reliance on science by 1 suggesting that reliance on science will probably not legitimate state action with overt class content and 2 arguing that although functional adjustments are not automatic science s facilitation of politicization and legitimation crisis in the short term can provide a mechanism through which dysfunctional state reliance on science is restricted or supressed whereas national labor relations board nlrb economists promoted radical possibilities in a statute undermining market determination of wages and market ideology

does the exchange rate follow a random walk a monte carlo study of four tests for a random walk abstract several authors have urged that real and nominal exchange rates follow a random walk conditions under which the exchange rate follows a random walk are reviewed in this paper many of these do not appear to hold therefore the empirical evidence presents a puzzle some evidence suggets the exchange rate follows a random walk while other evidence suggests the opposite should be true this paper attempts to reconcile the evidence it is argued that the tests for a random walk have low power monte carlo evidence on four tests for a random walk is presented that suppors this claim

does exchange rate pegging enhance credibility evidence from the european monetary system the european monetary system ems has been credited with immediately enhancing the credibility of onetary policy among its member countries however there is little empirical evidence to support this view this study provides evidence from exchange rate data that political actions taken to support the ems enhanced rate arangement further empirical results were sensitive to the specification of the estimating equations and varied dramatically if risk premia discounts were absent from estimating equations

business and welfare state development why did employers accept social reforms in recent years employer centered explanations of welfare state development have begun to challenge conventional labor centered and state centered explanations these new explanations suggest that sector specific business interests and cross class alliances propelled the adoption and expansion of social programs the business interests thesis this article presents a novel explanation of differences in business support for welfare state expansion based on a diachronic analysis of the german case and shadow case studies of sweden and the united states the article suggests that when looking at changes in employers positions across time rather than across sectors political constraints turn out to be the central factor explaining variation in employers support for social reforms the political accommodation thesis the article identifies two goals of business intervention in welfare state development pacification and containment in the case of pacification business interests propel social policy expansion in the case of containment they constrain it business chooses pacification when revolutionary forces challenge capitalism and political stabilization thus becomes a priority business chooses containment when reformist forces appear likely to succeed in expanding social protection and no revolutionary challenge exists the article shows that changes over time in the type of political challenges that business interests confront best explain the variation in business support for labor friendly social reforms

are real interest rates equal across countries an empirical investigation of international parity conditions this paper conducts empirical tests of the equality of real interest rates across countries the empirical evidence strongly rejects the hypothesis of real rate equality and the joint hypotheses of uncovered interest parity and ex ante relative ppp or the unbiasedness of forward rate forecasts and ex ante relative ppp the evidence suggests that it is worth studying open economy macroeconomic models which allow 1 domestic real rates to differ from world rates 2 time varying risk premiums in the forward market or 3 deviations from ex ante relative ppp the relationship of real interest rates across countries is of central importance to our understanding of open economy macroeconomics in some models where there is costless international arbitrage in goods and financial assets real interest rates for comparable securities should be equal across countries this has been a feature of much of the early research in the monetary approach to exchange rates e g frenkel 11 and bilson 2 on the other hand finance theory indicates that risk premia may well differ for comparable securities denominated in different currencies solnick 27 roll and solnick 26 stulz 28 fama and farber 7 hansen and hodrick 17 and dornbusch 6 and more recent theoretical models in the exchange rate literature such as dornbusch 5 frankel 10 and mussa 24 depend on real rates differing between countries in the short run the proposition that real rates are equal across countries is worth studying

did lower unionization in the united states result in more flexible industries do unions really impede manufacturers output flexibility if so in what ways the authors propose a methodology for quantifying george stigler s concept of output flexibility and for decomposing the effects of unionization on average cost differences between union and non union plants using a recently compiled data set on u s three digit manufacturing industries from 1973 to 1996 they adapt this methodology to simulate the effects of unionization on flexibility and average costs for average size plants simulation results indicate that higher unionization was associated with higher average costs and lower flexibility than low unionization higher average costs appear to have been primarily due to higher fixed costs such as higher benefits

organizational inertia and dynamic incentives abstract we model the level of inertia as an endogenous rational choice made by the organization principal we show that the efficient organizational response to the presence of private information on the value of change will in general be to bias the decision rule towards the status quo the compensation of the agent differs significantly according to whether the information is private to the principal or the agent and the efficient distribution of real authority in an organization need not always be profitably retained by the principal

effect of information formats on information services analysis of four selected agricultural commodities in the usa we analyze sources of information in agricultural markets to understand patterns of demand for decision support services and the division of labor in the supply of these services information formatting qualitative variation that determines accessibility and relevance of information in specific contexts prohibits universal access to informational content information formats give rise to both transaction costs and complementarities reflected in patterns of information exchange in commodity systems controlling for actors structural roles and levels of education we develop a hedonic model of information demand such that actors seek information that is formatted to meet their needs and capabilities employing survey data we explain elements of observed patterns of information exchange in four commodity systems in the usa results point to opportunities to expand our understanding of socioeconomic processes underlying production and consumption of decision support

on some international parity conditions an empirical investigation abstract this paper investigates weak semi strong and strong forms of the following international parity conditions a uncovered interest parity b the hypothesis of equal ex ante real interest rates and c ex ante purchasing power parity the main results are as follows using data which roughly cover the 1975 1984 decade we find little evidence in favor of the strong form of the parity conditions under consideration however most test results are consistent with the weak forms finally regarding the semi strong forms the results are mixed

learning and stock effects in environmental regulation the case of greenhouse gas emissions abstract this paper concerns the optimal regulation of greenhouse gases that lead to global climate change in particular we focus on uncertainty and learning which over time resolves uncertainty we present an empirical stochastic model of climate economy interactions and present results on the tension between postponing control until more is known vs acting now before irreversible climate change takes place uncertainty in our model is in the damage caused by global warming the results suggest that a temporary carbon tax may dominate a permanent one because a temporary tax may induce increased flexibility

capital liberalization and the us external imbalance abstract differences in financial systems are often named as a prime candidate for the current state of global imbalances this paper focuses on cross country heterogeneity in access to international financial markets that derives from the presence of capital controls and argues that the process of capital liberalization over the past decades can explain a substantial fraction of us net external liabilities we present a simple two country model with an internationally traded bond in which capital controls are reflected in the presence of borrowing and lending constraints on that bond in a us versus the rest of the world row scenario we perform experiments that are largely consistent with countries liberalization experiences a reduction in the row s controls on capital outflows and or a tightening in the row s borrowing constraint enable the us economy to better insure against consumption risk relative to the rest of the world and therefore decrease its motives for precautionary asset holdings relative to the rest of the world as a result of these asymmetric shifts in countries barriers to capital mobility the us runs a long run external deficit

investment projects and natural resources economic rationality in janus role abstract the evaluation of a public project or a public policy is in general based on scientific principles and methods however such an evaluation is not simply a logical and computational exercise there are uncertainties often severe ones in the way scientific knowledge is to be used hence there are degrees of freedom available to the promoters of the project or policy and possibly to other parties involved this paper discusses what use of these degrees of freedom has been made in western europe in situations where the conservation of natural resources has been a significant issue at stake we examine how scientific requirements on one hand and on the other hand the particular views held by the promoter and by other parties involved interact and how main features of the methodology of evaluation are influenced by this interaction which in some cases takes the form of an elaborated negotiation on methodological points

ordering ambiguous acts we investigate what it means for one act to be more ambiguous than another the question is evidently analogous to asking what makes one prospect riskier than another but beliefs are neither objective nor representable by a unique probability our starting point is an abstract class of preferences constructed to be strictly partially ordered by a more ambiguity averse relation we define two notions of more ambiguous with respect to such a class a more ambiguous i act makes an ambiguity averse decision maker dm worse off but does not affect the welfare of an ambiguity neutral dm a more ambiguous ii act adversely affects a more ambiguity averse dm more as measured by the compensation they require to switch acts unlike more ambiguous i more ambiguous ii does not require indifference of ambiguity neutral elements to the acts being compared second we implement the abstract definitions to characterize more ambiguous i and ii for two explicit preference families maxmin expected utility and smooth ambiguity our characterizations show that the outcome of a more ambiguous act is less robust to a perturbation in probability distribution governing the states third the characterizations also establish important connections between more ambiguous and more informative as defined on statistical experiments by blackwell 1953 and others fourthly we give applications to defining ambiguity in the small and to the comparative statics of more ambiguous in a standard portfolio problem and a consumption saving problem

the rise of the pentagon and u s state building the defense program as industrial policy state centered theories stress the potential for states to be proactive as well as reactive but the analytic tools developed in this literature have not been employed to examine the most impressive episode of state building in the postwar united states the rise of the pentagon this article examines the bureaucratic resources at the disposal of the pentagon and concludes that high ranking military officers have operated as relatively autonomous bureaucrats case studies of the aeronautics and microelectronics industries provide evidence that the pentagon has implemented a de facto industrial policy in the name of national defense the substantive conclusion that the autarkic pentagon has implemented a massive industrial policy contradicts the view that the hegemonic u s state is strong in the international arena but too weak and fragmented to plan the domestic political economy

domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run the evidence and analysis in this paper support the earlier findings of feldstein and horioka 1980 that sustained increases in domestic savings rates induce approximately equal increases in domestic rates of investment new estimates for the post opec period 1974 79 imply that each extra dollar of domestic saving increases domestic investment by approximately 85 cents in a sample of 17 oecd countries an explicit analysis of the problems of identification and simultaneous equations bias suggests that the regression estimates are more relevant as a guide to the long run response of international capital flows than to their short run behavior coefficient estimates based on annual variations in savings and investment are subject to potentially severe simultaneous equations bias that is not present when annual observations are averaged over a decade or more and the regression is estimated with a cross country sample of these averages a portfolio model of international capital allocation that is presented in the paper indicates that the short run change in the rate of net foreign investment in response to a sustained increase in domestic saving is likely to be substantially greater than the ultimate steady state response this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

in flexibility and the level of output a word of caution abstract it is widely believed that more flexibility stimulates output and investment in this letter we show that this view is too optimistic indeed with the help of a simple model improvements in flexibility are shown to have opposite effects on the level of output

capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in oecd countries abstract this paper considers tests that use data on saving and investment rates to determine the degree of international capital mobility two types of evidence are presented to show that a high correlation between saving and investment rates across oecd countries can be consistent with a high degree of capital mobility this evidence qualifies the conclusions of previous studies and casts doubt on the usefulness of testing hypotheses about capital mobility with data on saving and investment rates

pre commitment and flexibility abstract this paper considers several related strategic duopoly settings in which uncertainty creates an option value from retaining flexibility by delaying investment or output decisions until after uncertainty is resolved this value of flexibility must be weighed against the strategic value of pre commitment yielding a trade off between flexibility and pre commitment we obtain a simple characterization of the timing of output decisions as a consequence of the degree of uncertainty particular attention is paid to the implications for entry deterrence by an incumbent firm and to the possible flexibility enhancing effects of investment in capital

the real interest rate a multi country empirical study how real interest rates behave over time is critical to our understanding of many macroeconomic issues and much recent research has pursued this question very little of the research however has focused on real interest rates outside the united states this paper is an empirical exploration of real interest rate movements in seven oecd countries from 1967 ii to 1979 ii further research is needed on real rates in other countries for several reasons not only are measures of foreign real rates of interest in their ownright but extending an analysis of real rates to other countries also has the following additional benefits it can generate more powerful statistical tests of propositions previously tested on u s data and yield information on whether results found for the u s hold up in other countries this study pursues several questions that have arisen naturally from this earlier work is the hypothesis that the real rate is constant rejected when the analysis is extended to other countries does the real rate decline with increased inflation and money growth in other countries besides the united states how reliable is the fisher effect in which nominal interestrates reflect changes in expected inflation are movements in nominal interest rates a reliable indicator of movements in real rates what kind of variationsin real interest rates are there in different countries have real rates declined from the 60s to the 70s for other countries besides the u s this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

fertility and pension programs in ldcs a model of mutual reinforcement surveys of the determinants of fertility decline often include adoption of state sponsored pension programs among the many socioeconomic changes responsible for smaller average family size old age insurance appears in analyses of the western demographic experience pension programs have also been suggested as a policy tool that third world governments might use to reduce fertility 2 the theoretical literature on the pension fertility relationship has thus far emphasized the substitution of old age benefits provided by the state for help received from children and the implications of this substitution for the value of children and desired family size quantitative analysis of the pension fertility relationship has likewise proceeded in terms of the presumed impact of old age insurance 3 very little attention has been given to the possibility that pension programs might be implemented in response to fertility decline and to consequent shifts in the demand for old age security and in the ability of the government to finance such programs it is even possible that the pension response to falling levels of fertility could be mistaken for the assumed fertility effect of old age security programs our purpose is to consider and analyze both directions of effect the literature addressing the determinants of pension expenditure has not yet been linked with the literature addressing the determinants of fertility doing so will not only increase our understanding of fertility patterns but will make an important contribution to the study of how demographic demand factors influence social welfare policy for example aaron and wilensky have utilized the percentage of the population over 65 in their models of pension expenditure 4 although

monetary growth innovations in a simple cash in advance asset pricing model abstract this paper contributes to the existing literature in the rational expectations cash in advance asset pricing general equilibrium model in two directions first we show that by allowing a variable velocity of circulation an increase in the conditional variance of the money growth process triggers an increase in the demand for money relative to stocks and bonds with a consequent reduction in stock and bond prices which is the opposite of the current result in the literature with constant unitary velocity second we explicitly show how the sequential markets and specific timing of information fits exactly into the notion of irreversibility in the sense that when faced with uncertainty agents might find optimal to delay decisions in order to wait for the arrival of new information

coordinating the resource investment decision for a two market price setting firm abstract we study the capacity investment decision of a two product firm that is a price setter for both products the products are of varying complexities such that the resource that can be used to produce the higher level product can also be used to produce the lower level one but not vice versa although the firm needs to make its capacity investment decision under demand uncertainty it can utilize this limited downward resource flexibility in addition to pricing to more effectively match its supply with demand as an example consider a firm that owns a main plant satisfying both end product and intermediate product demand and a subsidiary satisfying the intermediate product demand only we formulate this decision problem as a two stage stochastic programming problem with recourse and analyze the impact of coordinated decision making when the resource flexibility is taken into account in the investment decision and demand correlation on the firm s optimal investment strategy our results offer managerial principles on the firm s optimal resource investment strategy

the origins of private social insurance public policy and fringe benefits in america 1920 1950 how did the american system of private employment related pension and health insurance arise data on corporate fringe benefit programs during the second quarter of the 20th century contradict the received wisdom that benefits rose in response to wartime federal policy changes and industrial factors instead it appears that public policies such as the wagner act and social security led to union and business support for private insurance which in turn spurred to growth of fringe benefits the historical record suggests that neoinstitutional and conflict approaches must be synthesized to explain the expansion of fringe benefits institutional factors influenced organizational outcomes by affecting interest group goals

do multinationals operate flexibly theory and evidence do multinational enterprises operate flexibly i e do they shift production in response to currency changes three theoretical perspectives are developed flexibility optimism premised on information and sunk cost advantages takes a macro efficiency perspective and predicts sizable responses flexibility pessimism premised on inertia and internal opportunism takes an organizational perspective and predicts sticky responses flexibility realism premised on the view that to be flexible in the current period multinational enterprises need to have planned and invested accordingly in previous periods predicts positive but relatively modest responses empirical analysis spanning the period 1977 1993 finds that multinational enterprises systematically exploit currency shifts but even in the face of large exchange rate changes their operational responses are relatively modest the results appear most consistent with flexibility realism and this hypothesis is selected over the alternatives considered

welfare capitalism and the social security act of 1935 a central concern of political theorists has been the relationship between the state and the economy or more specifically how political power gets translated into economic power recent debates have been shaped around critiques of the corporate liberal thesis which contends that class conscious capitalists manipulate the polity so that government comes to pursue policies favorable to capitalism alternative theories suggest that the state is capable of transcending the demands or interests of any particular social group or class the social security act of 1935 which represented the beginning of the welfare state in the united states was a conservative measure that tied social insurance benefits to labor force participation and left administration of its public assistance programs to the states in this paper the social security act is used as a case study to adjudicate between several competing theories of the state the analysis demonstrates that the state functions as a mediating body weighing the priorities of various interest groups with unequal access to power negotiating compromises between class factions and incorporating working class demands into legislation on capitalist terms a central concern of political theorists has been the relationship between the state and the economy or more specifically how economic power gets translated into political power recent debates have been shaped around critiques of the corporate liberal thesis which stresses the strategies of class conscious capitalists to manipulate the polity alternative theories suggest that the state is capable of transcending the demands or interests of any particular social group or class the core agenda of those espousing some variant of corporate liberalism has been to explain how major economic interests manipulated the polity in the twentieth century so that government came to pursue policies favorable to capitalism domhoff 1979 kolko 1963 o connor 1973 useem 1983 according to this perspective capitalists rationally pursued a series of policies designed to allow them control of the political process resulting in a synthesis of politics and economics for example kolko 1963 has argued that the regulatory reforms of the progressive era traditionally explained as a respose to muckraker s criticism were actually desired by large industry as a way not only of controlling

optimal investment in product flexible manufacturing capacity this paper presents a model and an analysis of the cost flexibility tradeoffs involved in investing in product flexible manufacturing capacity flexible capacity provides a firm with the ability to respond to a wide variety of future demand outcomes but at the expense of the increased cost of acquiring flexible manufacturing capacity as compared with dedicated or nonflexible capacity we formulate the product flexible manufacturing capacity investment decision as a two stage stochastic program in the first stage the firm must make its investment decision in manufacturing capacity before the resolution of uncertainty in product demand in the second stage after demand for products are known the firm implements its production decisions constrained by the first stage investments the main contributions of this paper are threefold first we develop a model of the firm s flexible manufacturing investment decision that conceptually captures some of the key characteristics of this complex decision probl

scientific progress and irreversibility an economic interpretation of the precautionary principle abstract we consider the problem of the optimal use of a good whose consumption can produce damages in the future scientific progress is made over time that provides information on the distribution of the intensity of damages we show that this progress induces earlier prevention effort only if prudence is larger than twice absolute risk aversion this paper thus identifies the class of quite restrictive but plausible conditions such that scientific uncertainties justify an immediate reduction of the consumption of a potentially toxic substance

some evidence on the international inequality of real interest rates abstract this paper undertakes econometric tests of the hypothesis that ex ante real interest rates are equal across countries with highly integrated capital markets the issue is of practical importance because the violation of real rate equality is a necessary condition for monetary policy to influence the open economy through the real interest rate channel although an empirical literature concerning real rate equality already exists previous investigators have focused on pre tax real rates this paper contributes to the literature by attempting to incorporate the effects of taxation into the analysis

recent estimates of time variation in the conditional variance and in the exchange risk premium abstract the optimal diversification model of investors portfolio behavior can give a linear relationship between the exchange risk premium and the conditional exchange rate variance this note surveys recent empirical work that allows the conditional variance itself and therefore the risk premium to vary over time in particular it examines the implications of recent empirical estimates for earlier arguments based on the assumption that the conditional variance was constant over time that the exchange risk premium had to be small in magnitude and variability

decision making under environmental uncertainty abstract the paper s main concern is with different decision making models for environmental issues and with the hypotheses of rationality underlying such models the hypothesis supported here is that most environmental problems are in a context of uncertainty of irreversibility and of complexity we shall explain why stressing the role of these elements implies a reversal of the traditional attitude towards decision making this presupposes a paradigm of economic rationality much broader that that of orthodox economics called procedural rationality our paper is in two parts the first part concerns the limits of the stochastic environmental approaches based on the bayesian decision theory and on a substantive rationality hypothesis the second part concerns the decision making analyses based upon a procedural rationality as well as their ability to take account of the interactions between uncertainty irreversibility and complexity

a theory of top income taxation and social insurance the development of the welfare state in the western economies between 1930 and 1990 coincided with a puzzling pattern in the taxation of top incomes eective tax rates at the top increased sharply but then gradually decreased even as social transfers continued rising we propose a new theory of the development of the welfare state to explain these facts our main insight is that social insurance and top income taxation are substitutes for averting social con ict we emphasize the role of the great depres sion as a source of aggregate risk and argue that the rise of the welfare state can be understood as a process of exploiting e ciency gains in response to gradual technolog ical improvements in the provision of social insurance our detailed arguments build on the policy histories of the united states great britain and sweden

technological competition uncertainty and oligopoly abstract in an oligopoly context the present technological choice of a firm which expects to receive private revelant information just prior to the uncertain market stage has both a flexibility value and a strategic commitment value in contrast to some common wisdom ideas we provide a natural two stage competition framework in which an increase in uncertainty always raises the commitment value of the technological choice of the firm and may decrease its flexibility value when the increased uncertainty takes the form of more variable beliefs the first result tends to reinforce therefore the findings of the strategic commitment literature under certainty

the euro and european financial market dependence a time varying copula model is used to investigate the impact of the introduction of the euro on the dependence between 17 european stock markets during the period 1994 2003 the model is implemented with a gjr garch ma t model for the marginal distributions and the gaussian copula for the joint distribution which allows capturing time varying non linear relationships the results show that within the euro area market dependence increased after the introduction of the common currency only for large equity markets such as in france germany italy the netherlands and spain structural break tests indicate that the increase in financial market dependence started around the beginning of 1998 when euro membership was determined and the relevant information was announced the uk and sweden but not other european countries outside the euro area are found to exhibit an increase in equity market co movement which is consistent with the interpretation that these countries may be expected to join the euro in the future

the international linkage of real interest rates the european us connection abstract in this paper we present evidence on several questions regarding the movement in short term real interest rates in eight countries have ex ante real estates in the united states and europe been high during recent years has there been a link between us real rates and those in other countries can this link be quantified the basic finding in this paper is that real rates have climbed dramatically from the 1970s to the 1980s in both the european countries and the united states there is also strong evidence that there is a positive association between movements in us real rates and those in europe however european real rates typically do not move one for one with us real rates still leaving open the possibility that european monetary policy can influence domestic economic activity

vignettes on the world capital market this paper is motivated by a sense that we as a profession need to understand much better than we now do how the world capital market works we seem to be genuinely schizophrenic in the ways we build models many of them are closedeconomy models in which the rest of the world does not even appear yet others of them are models of the small open economy in which hardly any degree of freedom is left for economic policy to influence events lying behind the schizophrenia is i believe a genuine ignorance on our collective part of how the world capital market

patterns of collaborative innovation in the us telecommunications industry after divestiture abstract this paper examines the implications of institutional change on collaborative innovation in the us telephone service industry the analysis relies on a database covering cooperative ventures in which two groups of firms were involved in the 1984 1990 period i e the regional holding companies and the independent holding companies in the post divestiture phase first it is shown that restrictions imposed on diversification may represent a strong mechanism inducing firms to collaborate with equipment suppliers and other service carriers through international cooperation companies attempt to exploit technological and market opportunities they cannot gain access to on the national arena moreover they take part in a number of agreements as a means to aggressively modernize their network equipment and to increase their own innovative capabilities on the markets they are allowed to enter second the paper discusses the consequences of the breaking up of r d manufacturer user integration on equipment procurement strategies on the one hand firms which were constrained in their vertical integration appear to have increased the number of sources as a protection against suppliers opportunistic behaviour on the other hand they tend to get involved into a larger and growing number of supply contracts which also have some collaborative implications in order to capture the value of their internally produced software it is further suggested that these areas of institutional intervention should be closely examined when discussing actual and potential patterns of collaborative ventures and innovation in other industrial contexts as well

how to design infrastructure contracts in a warming world a critical appraisal of public private partnerships we analyze how long term uncertainty for example regarding future climate conditions affects the design of concession contracts and organizational forms in a principal agent context with dynamic moral hazard limited liability and irreversibility constraints the prospect of future uncertain productivity shocks on the returns on the firm s effort creates an option value of delaying efforts a course that exacerbates agency costs contracts and organizational forms are drafted to control this cost of delegated flexibility the possibility for the agent to delay investment in response to uncertainty and irreversibility also elicits preference for unbundling different stages of the project through short term contracts our analysis is relevant to infrastructure sectors that are sensitive to changing weather conditions and sheds a pessimistic light on the relevance of public private partnerships in this context

an operational measure of liquidity embedding the process of selling an asset in a search environment enables one to provide an exact definition of liquidity an asset s liquidity is the expected time until it is sold while pursuing an optimal in the sense of maximization of expected discounted net proceeds policy this analysis reveals that this definition is compatible with most other notions of liquidity and in particular with those of john maynard keynes impatience the discount associatedwith a quick sale predictability and flexibility copyright 1986 by american economic association

wage wars institutional politics wpa wages and the struggle for u s social policy the wpa was the most expensive and politically prominent u s social program of the 1930s and the generosity and very nature of u s social policy in its formative years was contested through the wpa in this article an institutional politics theory of social policy is elaborated that incorporates the influence of both institutional conditions and political actors institutions mediate the influence of political actors specifically it is argued that underdemocratized political systems and patronage oriented party systems dampen the cause of generous social spending and the impact of those struggling for it state actors left party regimes and social movements spur social policy but only under favorable institutional conditions to appraise this theory key senate roll call votes on wpa wage rates are examined as well as state level variations in wpa wages at the end of the 1930s the analyses which include multiple regression and qualitative comparative analysis support the theory

foreign currency government debt asset markets and balance of payments abstract foreign currency government borrowing has implications for modelling asset markets and the balance of payments geographical balance of payments flows can be misleading indicators of exchange rate pressures in a world characterized by foreign currency govenment debt because the latter alter the currency composition of global asset supplies in a manner similar to foreign exchange market intervention a theoretical currency reinterpretation of the balance of payments is proposed and some estimates of the magnitude oecd foreign currency government borrowing are offered however more comprehensive measures of asset supplies may not by themselves improve the performance of simple portfolio balance models