profit maximising goes global the race to the bottom we explore four decades of cyclical and long run dynamics in income distribution and economic activity for a panel of 13 oecd countries as measured by the wage share and output gap when modeled as predator prey dynamics economic activity in oecd countries is weakly profit led convergence to a long run equilibrium is relatively slow delaying the profit squeeze stage for many years our race to the bottom model suggests that the oecd countries have been engaged in undercutting each other s real unit labour costs an extension of the model shows that the long run equilibrium has been shifting south west towards a lower wage share it may even be that this race has the undesirable consequence of decreasing economic activity

energy saving behavior and marginal abatement cost for household co2 emissions abstract this paper attempts to measure consumers perceived net benefits or net costs of energy saving measures in using energy consuming durable goods using the estimated net costs and the volume of co2 reduced by the measures a marginal abatement cost mac curve for the average household s co2 emissions is produced an analysis using the curve suggests that in order to provide households with an incentive to take actions that can lead to co2 emission reductions in using energy consuming durables a high level of carbon price is needed in addition a regression analysis reveals that the net benefits of the measures are larger for households that put a higher priority on energy saving for those living in detached houses for those with a smaller number of persons living together and for those with less income the result of the analysis using the mac curve may suggest that promoting energy saving behavior will require not only a policy to provide economic incentives but also interventions to influence psychological factors of household behavior

taming macroeconomic instability monetary and macro prudential policy interactions in an agent based model abstract we develop an agent based model to study the macroeconomic impact of alternative macro prudential regulations and their possible interactions with different monetary policy rules the aim is to shed light on the most appropriate policy mix to achieve the resilience of the banking sector and foster macroeconomic stability simulation results show that a triple mandate taylor rule focused on output gap inflation and credit growth and a basel iii prudential regulation is the best policy mix to improve the stability of the banking sector and smooth output fluctuations moreover we consider the different levers of basel iii and their combinations we find that minimum capital requirements and counter cyclical capital buffers allow to achieve results close to the basel iii first best with a much more simplified regulatory framework finally the components of basel iii are non additive the inclusion of an additional lever does not always improve the performance of the macro prudential regulation

energy market liberalization and renewable energy policies in oecd countries abstract this paper investigates the effect of energy liberalization compared to other drivers on policies that support renewable energy in a long panel of oecd countries we estimate this effect by accounting for the endogeneity of liberalization related to joint decisions within a country s energy strategy using regulation in other industries as instruments we find that energy liberalization increases public support for renewable energy the effect of liberalization is the second largest after the effect of per capita income and is mostly driven by reductions in entry barriers while the effect of privatization is unclear this finding suggests that a reduction in the monopolistic power of state owned utilities has a positive effect on renewable energy policies when various types of actors are ensured access to the grid instead of it being provided to only a few large private firms

the environmental kuznets curve environmental protection policy and income distribution abstract the effect of economic growth on pollution emissions differs substantially among high income countries i address this issue by analyzing public environmental policy decisions individual heterogeneity relative income effect and the political framework in which policy decisions are taken determine the emergence of the downward sloping segment of the environmental kuznets curve ekc income inequality produces a gap between the country s ability to pay for environmental protection and a country s willingness to pay i test this result by using oecd data on public r d expenditure for environmental protection the conclusion is that contrary to the ek hypothesis moments of the income distribution function other than the mean may be important for the emergence of a virtuous path of sustainable growth in high income countries

household carbon inequality in urban china its sources and determinants designing mitigation policies for households requires knowledge of household carbon distributions this study surveys the household carbon inequality in urban china and analyzes its sources and determinants using weighted household survey data different from existing literatures studying carbon inequality on the international or regional level we focus on the household aspect and first survey its characteristics by some comparisons by ascribing household carbon emissions calculated by the consumer lifestyle approach to several consumption categories with the method of gini coefficient decomposition we find that residential consumption with high carbon intensity is the most important source of household carbon inequality in urban china food consumption and the consumption of educational cultural and recreational services are the next largest sources because of the consumed quantities or carbon intensity the application of shapley decomposition shows the determinants of household carbon inequality in urban china and their contributions which are household demographic characteristics 59 74 household employment and income 24 31 household burdens 8 00 and household assets and financial plans 7 95 the policy implications of these results are also discussed

does central supervision enhance local environmental enforcement quasi experimental evidence from china abstract this paper draws on a natural experiment generated by the national specially monitored firms nsmf program in china to evaluate the effectiveness of central supervision at improving local environmental enforcement we explore a unique firm level chinese environmental statistics dataset and utilize a regression discontinuity design to assess the impact of central supervision through the nsmf program on an industrial firm s chemical oxygen demand cod emissions the results suggest that central supervision significantly reduces industrial cod emissions by at least 26 8 these results highlight the substantial room for improvement in chinese environmental regulations via central supervision a more flexible environmental decentralization regime and comprehensive central supervision are thus recommended for future reforms

debt deleveraging and the liquidity trap a fisher minsky koo approach in this paper we present a simple new keynesian style model of debt driven slumps that is situations in which an overhang of debt on the part of some agents who are forced into rapid deleveraging is depressing aggregate demand making some agents debt constrained is a surprisingly powerful assumption fisherian debt deflation the possibility of a liquidity trap the paradox of thrift a keynesiantype multiplier and a rationale for expansionary fiscal policy all emerge naturally from the model we argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical episodes including japan s lost decade now in its 18th year and the great depression itself

trade liberalization and environmental taxation in federal systems the literature on trade liberalization and environment has not yet considered federal structures in this paper we show how the design of environmental policy in a federal system has implications for the effects of trade reform trade liberalization leads to a decline in pollution taxes regardless of whether pollution taxes are set at the federal centralized or local decentralized level and it increases social welfare the effect under a decentralized system is smaller than if these taxes are set by the federal government and pollution emissions therefore decline in this case moreover majority bias interacts with trade liberalization if federal taxes are used

the feasibility of the double dividend hypothesis in a democratic economy the two dividends in the double dividend hypothesis are assumed to be independent this assumption can be misleading when it comes to formulating policy i construct a model where the pollution tax rate is voted for by heterogeneous people in addition to the revenue recycling effect the equilibrium pollution tax rate depends on two opposite forces the tax cutting effect and the profit effect the two forces show that an instrument that exploits a greater revenue recycling effect can cause a more severe environmental deterioration thereby resulting in the infeasibility of the hypothesis the introduction of the interdependence between the two dividends can also mean that non revenue raising instruments are more efficient than revenue raising instruments

an interdisciplinary model for macroeconomics macroeconomic modelling has been under intense scrutiny since the great financial crisis when serious shortcomings were exposed in the methodology used to understand the economy as a whole criticism has been levelled at the assumptions employed in the dominant models particularly that economic agents are homogeneous and optimizing and that the economy is equilibrating this paper seeks to explore an interdisciplinary approach to macroeconomic modelling with techniques drawn from other natural and social sciences specifically it discusses agent based modelling which is used across a wide range of disciplines as an example of such a technique agent based models are complementary to existing approaches and are suited to answering macroeconomic questions where complexity heterogeneity networks and heuristics play an important role

progressive supply side economics an explanation and update of the rehn meidner model the swedish rehn meidner model is a unique economic and wage policy program for the simultaneous achievement of full employment price stability growth and equality this article presents specif

public acceptance for environmental taxes self interest environmental and distributional concerns abstract while strongly recommended by economists it has often been politically difficult to impose taxes on externalities there is a substantial literature on public attitudes towards environmental taxes there has however been few comprehensive attempts to understand attitudes towards environmental taxes the main research question in this paper is which factors influence support for fuel taxation we propose a model of attitudes towards fuel taxation and test this model as well as more specific hypotheses using data from a representative survey of the adult norwegian population our results suggest that support for fuel taxation is best predicted by beliefs about environmental consequences followed by beliefs about consequences to others beliefs about consequences to self self interest is the factor that explains the least variation in support for fuel taxation the academically interesting result that support cannot be well explained without capturing a broad range of motivational factors is also highly policy relevant it implies that there is no magic formula for increasing public support for environmental taxes there are however some issues which can be addressed trust in how well the government spends the revenue and the perception that taxation does very little to change behaviour and thus to reduce environmental problems

the effects of interbank networks on efficiency and stability in a macroeconomic agent based model we develop a macroeconomic agent based model that consists of firms banks unions and households who interact on labour goods credit and interbank markets the model endogenises pricing decisions by firms wage setting by unions and interest rate setting by banks on both firm and interbank lending banks also set leverage targets and precautionary liquidity buffers on the basis of internal risk models our model produces endogenous fluctuations driven by the pricing behaviour of firms and the wage setting behaviour of unions fluctuations lead to loan defaults which are exacerbated as lenders reduce lending and charge higher interest rates inducing a credit crunch we also study how making the inter banking network more connected affects the key outcomes of the economy and find that while the flow of funds from surplus banks to firms can be increased the latter effect is soon dominated by increasing instability in the real sector as firms default at higher rates while the banking sector experiences fewer defaults as a whole losses on the interbank market increase as a source of bank defaults

fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies what is the most appropriate combination of fiscal and monetary policies in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions we study this issue using an agent based model that is able to reproduce a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities simulation results suggest that policy mixes associating unconstrained counter cyclical fiscal policy and monetary policy targeting employment is required to stabilise the economy we also show that discipline guided fiscal rules can be self defeating as they depress the economy without improving public finances finally we find that the effects of monetary and fiscal policies become sharper as the level of income inequality increases

applying quantile regression and shapley decomposition to analyzing the determinants of household embedded carbon emissions evidence from urban china abstract as co2 emissions differ in households with different characteristics mitigation policies still address the contributions of these characteristics and their effects on specific households using a representative resident survey in urban china this paper compares how household characteristics differ in their associations with household embedded carbon emissions heces at different levels by quantile regression then this paper analyzes the contributions of these characteristics by shapley decomposition the findings include the following i household income is the most important contributor to the difference of heces and its positive effect increases as heces rise ii the use of wealth has different effects on heces because household housing ownership and deposits contribute little to heces but the positive effects of household car ownership contribute 25 8 iii young people and children will emit more heces than adults the employed emit more than persons who are unemployed or retired iv education increases heces overall but mainly at the low quantiles the negative effect of the marriage increases as heces rise v income car ownership marital status size and constitution of households with high heces should be addressed to reduce the inequality of heces indeed education on the low carbon concept is another way forward

the financial instability hypothesis a stochastic microfoundation framework this paper examines the dynamics of financial distress and in particular the mechanism of transmission of shocks from the financial sector to the real economy the analysis is performed by representing the linkages between microeconomic financial variables and the aggregate performance of the economy by means of a microfounded model with firms that have heterogeneous capital structures the model is solved both numerically and analytically by means of a stochastic approximation that is able to replicate quite well the numerical solution these methodologies by overcoming the restrictions imposed by the traditional microfounded approach enable us to provide some insights into the stabilization policies which may be effective in a financially fragile system

post keynesian stock flow consistent modelling a survey the aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the current stock ow consistent sfc literature indeed we feel the sfc approach has recently led to a blossoming literature requiring a new summary after the work of dos santos and above all after the publication of the main reference work on the methodology godley and lavoie s monetary economics an integrated approach to credit money income production and wealth the paper is developed along the following lines first a brief historical analysis investigates the roots of this class of models that can be traced as far back as 1949 and the work of copeland second the competing points of view regarding some of its main controversial aspects are underlined and used to classify the different methodological approaches followed in using these models namely we discuss i how the models are solved ii the treatment of time and its implication and ii the need or not for microfoundations these results are then used in the third section of the paper to develop a bifocal perspective which allows us to divide the literature reviewed according to both its subject and the methodology we explore various topics such as financialisation exchange rate modelling policy implication the need for a common framework within the post keynesian literature and the empirical use of sfc models finally the conclusions present some hypotheses and wishes for the possible lines of development of sfc models

buffalo hunt international trade and the virtual extinction of the north american bison in the sixteenth century north america contained 25 to 30 million buffalo by the late nineteenth century fewer than 100 remained while removing the buffalo east of the mississippi took over 100 years the remaining 10 to 15 million buffalo on the great plains were killed in a punctuated slaughter lasting little more than ten years i employ theory international trade statistics and first person accounts to argue the slaughter was initiated by a foreign made innovation and fueled by a foreign demand for industrial leather european demand and american policy failure are jointly responsible for the slaughter on the plains jel f14 n51 n71 q57

the growth of social security electoral push or political pull the growth of social security electoral push or political pull i introduction during the post world war ii period the social security program was among the fastest growing programs in the federal budget surpassing defense spending as the largest category of expenditures in the mid seventies the program which disbursed only 132 million dollars in 1942 disbursed more than 156 billion dollars forty years late a thousand fold increase as a consequence of this growth and the program s recent financial problems a number of economists have turned their attention to the economics of social security recent examples include kahn 1988 boskin et al 1987 and veall 1986 yet only weaver 1982 and turner 1984 attempt to analyze the growth of the social security program weaver s legislative history of the program suggests that special interest groups had a major impact on social security programs turner argues that program benefit levels are affected by demographic changes which affect the cost of intergenerational redistribution in this paper we use the public choice approach to explain increases in benefit levels from 1946 1980 we develop and test three alternative public choice models of the politics of retirement benefit levels our analysis thus sheds light on an important question neglected by previous research have social security expenditures grown because special interest groups have effectively captured the congress or is congress simply responding to demands placed on it by the electorate the answer to this question is relevant to normative analysis of existing programs and to alternative proposals for reform in addition our study of the principal determinants of the growth of program benefit levels serves as an event study for assessing the merits of alternative theories of political decision making borcherding 1985 discusses two public choice explanations for the growth of public expenditures first public programs may expand as a result of the voting rules which underlie the political process when decisions are made by majority rule an increase in the median voter s demand for public services tends to increase public service levels because prospective candidates will revise their policy positions in order to be elected the wagner 1958 hypothesis for example maintains that increases in real income cause individuals to prefer both absolutely and relatively larger public expenditures borcherding notes that about 40 percent of the rate at which public sector spending has replaced private sector spending over the past eighty years can be explained with a median voter approach such an approach does better in what borcherding calls traditional areas of public expenditure where a median voter model can account for about 73 percent of the rate at which public expenditures excluding transfers have displaced private expenditures the median voter might favor public transfers to the elderly for two reasons first he may have an interdependent utility function in which the plight of the elderly poor arouses a charitable response while the redistribution from young to old does not simply target the old poor as a group the elderly do seem to be relatively less wealthy than the middle aged and the yound if one considers the average capitalized value of future income receipts from labor and capital second to the extent that the social security program offers a connection between reductions in current consumption and increases in future consumption it is a rather complex savings and insurance program the median voter s motivation for transferring monies to today s elderly may be a vehicle for ensuring future transfers to himself while this explanation is difficult to motivate at the individual level since a savings program for future retirement need not pay anything to today s elderly a continuing program of tax funded transfers is plausible method of establishing the moral constitution necessary to ensure that future transfers do in fact take place

the hotspots reference routes and research trends of marginal abatement costs a systematic review abstract as one of the most effective means of evaluating environmental policies marginal abatement costs macs have been adopted in a growing body of research this study characterizes the mac related literature from 1993 to 2018 on web of science based on a systematic review bibliometric analysis and mind mapping the results classify the research hotspots into influential factors methods and empirical applications the three most frequently mentioned influential factors are technical change discount rates and energy prices compared with top down models bottom up models including engineering model and expert based method are the most widely used improvements in the former focus on strengthening market behavior effect while those in the latter aim to overcome the weaknesses of negative costs and lack of interaction across measures mac applications focus on environmental policies with two new research areas recently emerging co benefits and sectoral abatement costs furthermore a reference route is proposed by summarizing the applicability of methods and matching relationships among influential factors methods and empirical problems finally potential research directions are summarized based on the identified research hotspots and a similar co word analysis in marginal cost field such as considering the effects of both multiple influential factors and the interaction among factors on maccs

cost benefit analysis of leaning against the wind abstract an obvious cost of leaning against the wind is a weaker economy if no financial crisis occurs possible benefits are lower probabilities and smaller magnitudes of crises a second cost less obvious previously overlooked but higher is a weaker economy if a crisis occurs for representative estimates costs exceed benefits by substantial margins overturning the result requires policy rate effects on the probability and magnitude of crises more than 5 40 standard errors larger than representative estimates higher probabilities larger magnitudes or longer durations of crises typical consequences of ineffective macroprudential policy increase the margin of costs over benefits

quantifying the concerns of dimon and buffett with data and computation abstract despite considerable efforts the determinants of firm growth and financial market volatility have not been definitively identified yet sets of stylized facts most notably power law distributions relating to firm size and market returns suggest both evolve as part of a complex system this scenario implies that a positive feedback loop between firms and investors exists and may be responsible for prejudicing the way management allocates their resources with firm and economic growth adversely affected further there are growing real world concerns that the management of publicly listed firms is becoming too concerned with the movement of their firm s share price which is adversely influencing resource allocation decisions a related concern is that agents in general within financial markets are placing a disproportionate focus on short term factors to investigate the ramifications of the proposed feedback loop on firm growth and market volatility this paper implements a novel agent based artificial stock market where management can consider the movements of their firm s endogenously determined share price when allocating resources between sales and margin growth the results highlight an inferior outcome regarding firm growth and various other financial metrics if management is overly concerned with share price movements the growth of the firms and market is also affected by the mixture of the investor classes initiated due to the divergent levels of volatility they create additionally the model presents insights into how and why the extent to which agents consider past outcomes in their decision making process becomes influential notably the model s results emulate an extensive set of global micro level firm data by providing significant insights on the effects of the stock market on management decision making and its ramifications for firm growth this paper provides crucial insights into the mechanisms responsible for inefficient behavior by market participants

rethinking macroeconomics what failed and how to repair it the standard macroeconomic models have failed by all the most important tests of scientific theory they did not predict that the financial crisis would happen and when it did they understated its effects monetary authorities allowed bubbles to grow and focused on keeping inflation low partly because the standard models suggested that low inflation was necessary and almost sufficient for efficiency and growth after the crisis broke policymakers relying on the models floundered notwithstanding the diversity of macroeconomics the sum of these failures points to the need for a fundamental re examination of the models and a reassertion of the lessons of modern general equilibrium theory that were seemingly forgotten in the years leading up to the crisis this paper first describes the failures of the standard models in broad terms and then develops the economics of deep downturns and shows that such downturns are endogenous further the paper argues that there have been systemic changes to the structure of the economy that made the economy more vulnerable to crisis contrary to what the standard models argued finally the paper contrasts the policy implications of our framework with those of the standard models

impact of household consumption on co2 emissions danish household consumption increased by 58 over the period 1966 1992 while co2 emissions only increased by 7 using decomposition analysis we investigated the global co2 impact of danish household consumption from 1966 to 1992 our conclusion is that overall growth in private consumption but not changes in the composition of consumption is the key to understanding the increase in co2 emissions however the effect of growth in private consumption has been partly offset by substantial energy conservation in the energy supply and manufacturing sectors

demand for environmental goods evidence from voting patterns on california initiatives this article studies voting behavior on 16 environmental ballot propositions in california in order to characterize the demand for environmental goods the environment is found to be a normal good for people with mean incomes but some environmental goods are inferior for those with high incomes at least when supplied collectively an important price of environmental goods is reduced income in the construction farming forestry and manufacturing industries income and price can explain most of the variation in voting there is little need to introduce preference variables such as political ideology

semi autonomous household expenditures as the causa causans of postwar us business cycles the stability and instability of luxemburg type external markets similar patterns can be observed in post wwii us business cycles the initial upswings tend to be led by household investment and debt financed personal consumption expenditures which then wane in relative importance and lead downswings as those expenditures are financed in significant part by money creation they function as an external market driving accumulation by enabling monetary profit realisation in a way analogous to rosa luxemburg s treatment of the public and foreign sectors empirical studies on wage led profit led demand regimes typically exclude household investment or include it in with business investment this paper argues that it is vital to distinguish an independent role for semi autonomous household expenditures as a driver of effective demand and cyclical dynamics the failure to do so in empirical studies sustains misleading conclusions such as the perceived relevance of goodwin type profit squeeze cycles

cash flow investment and keynes minsky cycles this paper analyzes a dynamic model with 1 an investment function that emphasizes cash flow 2 a keynesian macroeconomic framework that determines cash flow endogenously 3 a dynamic labor market model that drives wage and price adjustments and 4 boundedly rational expectations simulations from the calibrated model generate endogenous cycles with characteristics described in hyman minsky s research the cycle arises from the link between investment interest rates debt service and cash flow the amplitude and frequency of the cycle are related to the importance of cash flow for investment the dynamics of inflation and the distribution of income

a clarification of the goodwin model of the growth cycle abstract we show that there is a difficulty in the original goodwin model which is also found in some more recent applications in it both the labour share and the proportion employed can exceed unity properties which are untenable however we show that the underlying dynamic structure of the model can be reformulated to ensure that these variables cannot exceed unity an illustrative example extends the original model and we argue it is both plausible and satisfies the necessary unit box restrictions

debt cycles instability and fiscal rules a godley minsky synthesis wynne godley and hyman minsky were two macroeconomists who saw the crisis coming this paper develops a simple macrodynamic model that synthesises some key perspectives of their analytical frameworks the model incorporates godley s financial balances approach and postulates that private sector s propensity to spend is driven by a stock flow norm the target net private debt to income ratio that changes endogenously via a minsky mechanism it also includes two fiscal rules a maastricht type fiscal rule according to which the fiscal authorities adjust the government expenditures based on a target net government debt ratio and a godley minsky fiscal rule which links government expenditures with private indebtedness following a counter cyclical logic the analysis shows that i the interaction between the propensity to spend and net private indebtedness can generate cycles and instability ii instability is more likely when the propensity to spend responds strongly to deviations from the stock flow norm and when the expectations that determine the stock flow norm are highly sensitive to the economic cycle iii the maastricht type fiscal rule is destabilising while the godley minsky fiscal rule is stabilising iv the paradox of debt can apply both to the private sector and the government sector

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

budgetary rigour with stimulus in lean times policy advices from an agent based model abstract the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent global recession triggered a wide spread economic and political debate on the proper policy combination to deal with the crisis and to prevent similar ones in the future probably the main dispute has been around the use of fiscal instruments in order to foster growth while keeping public debt under control the european union for instance endorsed austerity measures for fiscal consolidation but has been sharply criticized by several scholars this paper aims at contributing to the current debate by presenting the outcomes of a computational study performed with the eurace agent based model we set up an experiment with two base policy scenarios i e stability and growth pact and fiscal compact incrementally enriching them with complementary policies which relax fiscal rigidity and introduce quantitative easing results show that budgetary rigour performs well if and only if some mechanisms of fiscal relaxation and monetary accommodation are considered during bad times thus confirming in a richer and more realistic model setting the fundamental tenet of keynesian economics about the importance of sustaining aggregate demand during recessions

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

testing goodwin growth cycles in ten oecd countries following desai 1984 goodwin s simple predator prey growth cycle model of the economy 1967 is tested using post war data for ten oecd countries australia canada finland france germany greece italy norway the uk and the us at a quantitative level goodwin s model is found not to be adequate i estimated parameter values poorly predict the cycles centres and ii goodwin s restrictive assumptions are not justified however at a qualitative level the evidence presented here for the existence of goodwin type cycles is extremely encouraging justifying both existing theoretical extensions of goodwin s model and further empirical work in this area copyright 2000 by oxford university press

pseudo goodwin cycles in a minsky model goodwin cycles result from the dynamic interaction between a profit led demand regime and a reserve army effect in income distribution the paper proposes the concept of a pseudo goodwin cycle we define this as a counter clockwise movement in output and wage share space which is not generated by the usual goodwin mechanism in particular it does not depend on a profit led demand regime to illustrate this a simple minsky type model is extended by a reserve army distribution adjustment in this model the cycle is generated by the interaction of financial fragility and demand the wage share rises at higher levels of output but this generates no feedback so that by design demand does not react to changes in income distribution but the model does exhibit a pseudo goodwin cycle in the output wage share space this holds true even if we introduce a wage led demand regime this demonstrates that the existence of a counter clockwise movement of output and the wage share cannot be regarded as proof of the existence of a goodwin cycle and a profit led demand regime

income distribution credit and fiscal policies in an agent based keynesian model this work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables gdp growth unemployment etc on the grounds of an agent based keynesian model the direct ancestor of this work is the keynes meeting schumpeter formalism presented in dosi et al 2010 to that model we add a banking sector and a monetary authority setting interest rates and credit lending conditions the model combines keynesian mechanisms of demand generation a schumpeterian innovation fueled process of growth and minskian credit dynamics the robustness of the model is checked against its capability to jointly account for a large set of empirical regularities both at the micro level and at the macro one the model is able to catch salient features underlying the current as well as previous recessions the impact of financial factors and the role in them of income distribution we find that different income distribution regimes heavily affect macroeconomic performance more unequal economies are exposed to more severe business cycles fluctuations higher unemployment rates and higher probability of crises on the policy side fiscal policies do not only dampen business cycles reduce unemployment and the likelihood of experiencing a huge crisis in some circumstances they also affect positively long term growth further the more income distribution is skewed toward profits the greater the effects of fiscal policies about monetary policy we find a strong non linearity in the way interest rates affect macroeconomic dynamics in one regime with low rates changes in interest rates are ineffective up to a threshold beyond which increasing the interest rate implies smaller output growth rates and larger output volatility unemployment and likelihood of crises

is the income elasticity of environmental improvements less than one we estimated the income elasticity of environmental improvements for a number of european data sets the value of this parameter is consistently found to be less than one with few exceptions our findings are compared with state of the art contingent valuation studies from other countries we also compared our findings with those reported in the literature on charitable donations and corporate donations these studies show a similar pattern donations decrease as a percentage of income as income increases

harmonizing tailpipe policy in symmetric countries improve the environment improve welfare abstract we show that harmonizing emissions policy may be bad for the environment and or global welfare even when pollution is transboundary and countries are identical in every way harmonization effectively internalizes the transboundary aspects of pollution but it also changes the politics surrounding tailpipe regulation with harmonization producers can no longer avoid strict local regulation by simply exporting their products to overseas markets with weak standards for consumer goods as a result harmonization may raise political opposition to regulation to examine these competing effects we develop a generic treatment of the politics of environmental regulation a treatment we show to be isomorphic to three popular models of political economy majority rules a political elite and a political contributions approach we find that harmonization both weakens environmental regulation and reduces global welfare when the level of political capture by dirty industry is high relative to the rate of pollution transmission across borders

leaning against boom bust cycles in credit and housing prices this paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro prudential policies that lean against house price and credit cycles we rely on a model that features borrowers and savers and allows for over borrowing induced by news shock driven cycles we find that policy that responds to changes in financial variables is socially optimal considering the use of a single policy instrument both types of agents are better off when the interest rate optimally responds to credit growth when we allow for the implementation of both interest rate and ltv policies heterogeneity in the welfare implications is key in determining the optimal use of policy instruments the optimal policy for the borrowers is characterized by a ltv ratio that responds countercyclically to credit growth which most effectively stabilizes credit relative to gdp in contrast the optimal policy for the savers features a constant ltv ratio coupled with an interest rate response to credit growth news shock driven cycles account for most of the gains from a policy response to changes in financial variables

determinants of local school spending some consistent estimates the traditional median voter model predicts that median income and taxprice are the primary determinants of local school spending levels it further implies that lump sum grants wills be utilized like private income and thus income and grant coefficients should be the same our comprehensive search technique shows that excluding equalized assessed value these predictions hold up quite well over 2048 specifications income and taxprice elasticities are reasonable and tightly distributed with income and blockgrant effects of the same general size as note above any hint of flypaper effect is completely dependent on the inclusion of equalized assessed value in the regression equation since the state of new york has annual district level tax levy elections it would be hard to rationalize bureaucratic power or agenda control as capable of producing flypaper type effects so this absence is not surprising future research should 1 investigate the specification sensitivity of flypaper effects with other datasets and wealth variables and 2 examine election and tax rules for the possibility of budget maximizing actions by school officials finally the consistently positive effects of private schooling nonwhite and in poverty suggest that future work should attempt to model non linear income effects

are there limits to growth a simple theoretical model of pollution is developed that generates an inverted u shape relationship between per capita income and environmental quality this model is then used to study long run growth the same inverted u shape is shown to appear in time series and the prospects for sustained growth are shown to hinge on whether increasingly strict environmental regulation is compatible with a constant rate of return on capital implementation is also studied tax and voucher schemes are shown to have an advantage over direct regulation because they provide the correct incentives for capital accumulation copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the euro area an increase in the wage share has contradictory effects on the subaggregates of aggregate demand private consumption expenditures ought to increase because wage incomes typically are associated with higher consumption propensities than capital incomes investment expenditures ought to be negatively affected because investment will positively depend on profits net exports will be negatively affected because an increase in the wage share corresponds to an increase in unit labour costs and thus a loss in competitiveness therefore theoretically aggregate demand can be either wage led or profit led depending on how these effects add up the results will crucially depend on how open the economy is internationally the paper estimates a post kaleckian macro model incorporating these effects for the euro area and finds that the euro area is presently in a wage led demand regime implications for wage policies are discussed

a bibliometric review energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector residential sector has been one key sector for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions due to its significant contribution to global warming researchers in different countries have studied household energy consumption patterns and greenhouse gas emissions in order to promote low carbon lifestyles however few review papers have been published in this regard leading to a lack of systematic understanding on the related research achievements hence by using a bibliometric approach this paper aims to review the existing literature and examine the evolution of such a field so that the research trends can be uncovered including popular research methods citation analysis is performed to assess the influence of most productive journals countries territories and authors network analysis is also conducted to evaluate the relationship among different countries territories authors and keywords research outcomes of this paper present a comprehensive research picture on residential energy consumption and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions ree related papers published from 1997 to 2016 the most productive journals countries territories authors are also analyzed based on citation analysis and network analysis in addition results also revealed that behavioral analysis input output analysis life cycle assessment and cost benefit analysis are the most commonly used methods in this field results obtained from this study can provide valuable information for researchers interested in the ree related field

effective demand class struggle and cyclical growth the paper presents an analytical model of endogenous cyclical growth in a pure capitalist economy the model integrates keynesian ideas on effective demand with a marxian emphasis on class struggle and the reserve army of labor for reasonable parameter values the model has a unique nontrivial balanced growth equilibrium the equilibrium is unstable and using the poincare bendixson theorem it is shown that the economy will exhibit perpetual fluctuations around the balanced growth path copyright 1989 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

winter is possibly not coming mitigating financial instability in an agent based model with interbank market abstract we develop a macroeconomic agent based model to study how financial instability can emerge from the co evolution of interbank and credit markets and the policy responses to mitigate its impact on the real economy the model is populated by heterogenous firms consumers and banks that locally interact in different markets in particular banks provide credit to firms according to a basel ii or iii macro prudential frameworks and manage their liquidity in the interbank market the central bank performs monetary policy according to different types of taylor rules we find that the model endogenously generates market freezes in the interbank market which interact with the financial accelerator possibly leading to firm bankruptcies banking crises and the emergence of deep downturns this requires the timely intervention of the central bank as a liquidity lender of last resort moreover we find that the joint adoption of a three mandate taylor rule tackling credit growth and the basel iii macro prudential framework is the best policy mix to stabilize financial and real economic dynamics however as the liquidity coverage ratio spurs financial instability by increasing the pro cyclicality of banks liquid reserves a new counter cyclical liquidity buffer should be added to basel iii to improve its performance further finally we find that the central bank can also dampen financial instability by employing a new unconventional monetary policy tool involving active management of the interest rate corridor in the interbank market

the trade off between income inequality and carbon dioxide emissions abstract we investigate the theoretically ambiguous link between income inequality and per capita carbon dioxide emissions using a panel data set that is substantially larger in both regional and temporal coverage than those used in the existing literature using an arguably superior group fixed effects estimator we find that the relationship between income inequality and per capita emissions depends on the level of income we show that for low and middle income economies higher income inequality is associated with lower carbon emissions while in upper middle income and high income economies higher income inequality increases per capita emissions the result is robust to the inclusion of plausible transmission variables

growth cycles with induced technical change this paper concerns itself with two related topics the relative shares of workers and capitalists in the national income and the labour augmenting bias of technical change both have been dealt with in contrasting fashion in two seminal papers on distribution theory kennedy i964 attempts to explain the then observed constancy of relative shares with the help of the now famous invention possibility frontier however the wage and profit rates are exogeneous to his model goodwin i967 on the other hand presents a model of cycles in growth rates in which the share of labour the wage rate and the profit rate are endogenously determined however unlike the kennedy analysis technical change is assumed to be constant and exogeneously given given that these pioneering works have addressed themselves to important questions it seems a worthwhile task to build a model in which the shares of labour and capital the wage rate the profit rate and technical change are all endogenously determined the perspective we have chosen here introduces the key element of kennedy s perception induced technical change into the goodwin scheme and the consequences of so doing are traced out in the following terse account there are two classes in the economy workers and capitalists only one good q t is produced and it can be either consumed or invested capital stock k t is homogeneous and for simplicity also assumed to be non depreciating the capital output ratio at time t is denoted by o t labour i t is also homogeneous and its productivity at time t a t q t l t improves at the rate ac t labour s share in the national income denoted by u t is

distribution and growth reconsidered empirical results for six oecd countries we analyse the relationship between functional income distribution and economic growth in austria france germany the netherlands the uk and the usa from 1960 until 2005 the analysis is based on a demand driven distribution and growth model for an open economy inspired by bhaduri and marglin which allows for either profit or wage led growth we find that growth in france germany the uk and the usa has been wage led whereas austria and the netherlands have been profit led in the case of austria a domestically wage led economy changes to profit led when including the effect of distribution on external trade the netherlands however are already profit led without external trade our results so far only partially confirm bhaduri and marglin s theoretical conclusion that wage led growth becomes less feasible when the effects of distribution on foreign trade are taken into account

faraway so close coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent based integrated assessment model abstract in this work we develop an agent based model that offers an alternative to standard computable general equilibrium integrated assessment models iams the dystopian schumpeter meeting keynes dsk model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital good consumption good and energy sectors production and energy generation lead to greenhouse gas emissions which affect temperature dynamics climate damages are modelled at the individual level as stochastic shocks hitting workers labour productivity energy efficiency capital stock and inventories of firms in that aggregate damages emerge from the aggregation of losses suffered by heterogeneous interacting and boundedly rational agents the model is run focusing on a business as usual carbon intensive scenario consistent with a representative concentration pathway 8 5 we find that the dsk model is able to account for a wide ensemble of micro and macro empirical regularities concerning both economic and climate dynamics simulation experiments show a substantial lack of isomorphism between the effects of micro and macro level shocks as it is typical in complex system models in particular different types of shocks have heterogeneous impact on output growth unemployment rate and the likelihood of economic crises pointing to the importance of the different economic channel affected by the shock overall we report much larger climate damages than those projected by standard iams under comparable scenarios suggesting possible shifts in the growth dynamics from a self sustained pattern to stagnation and high volatility and the need of urgent policy interventions

identifying the impacts of income inequality on co2 emissions empirical evidences from oecd countries and non oecd countries abstract the emergence of environmental quality challenges is rooted in social problems which mainly come from income inequality and power gap income inequality and climate change have been highlighted as hindering the achievement of sustainable development and environmental protection globally though existing literature has estimated the influences of income inequality on co2 emissions relatively little is known about the long run and short run effects from a cross national perspective therefore the aim of this study is to shed light on the long run and short run relationships between income inequality and per capita co2 emissions based on balanced country level panel dataset for 78 countries from 1990 to 2017 in order to understand how a country s economic level affects the link between inequality and co2 emissions this study classified the sample countries into three groups oecd countries low income non oecd countries and high income non oecd countries the fmols and dols model is applied to examine the relationship between the income inequality and per capita co2 emission meanwhile the estimates of an ardl model revealed the long run and short run effects our empirical results indicate that there is a long term cointegration relationship between income inequality and per capita co2 emissions higher income inequality promotes emission reductions in oecd countries and high income non oecd countries while the influences are insignificant in low income non oecd countries in the long run per capita income carbon intensity population size and urbanization were also considered in this study the estimates of an ardl model indicate that whilst income inequality does not have a significant impact on co2 emissions in the short run per capita national income positively affects co2 emissions meaning that income growth will accelerate emissions carbon intensity positively affects co2 emissions in the long term indicating that increased income facilitates increased energy use and emissions but that progress in co2 recycling technology may ultimately reduce emissions neither population size nor urbanization rate exerted any obvious effects on per capita co2 emissions from a policy perspective governments have an onerous task ahead of them in balancing economic efficiency and distributary justice lastly we provide insights for policy makers that in order to realize the goal of emission reductions in the long run it may be best to proceed by making reasonable national income redistribution policies and by adjusting the welfare system

minsky models a structured survey minsky s ideas have recently gained prominence in the mainstream as well as in the heterodox literature however there exists no agreement upon the formal presentation of minsky s insights the aim of this paper is to survey the literature and identify differences and similarities in the ways through which minskyan ideas have been formalised we distinguish between the models that focus on the dynamics of debt or interest with no or a secondary role for asset prices and the models in which asset prices play a key role in the dynamic behaviour of the economy within the first category of models we make a classification between i the kalecki minsky models ii the kaldor minsky models iii the goodwin minsky models iv the credit rationing minsky models v the endogenous target debt ratio models and vi the minsky veblen models within the second category of models we distinguish between i the equity price minsky models and ii the real estate price minsky models key limitations of the models and directions for future research are outlined

voting for environmental policy under income and preference heterogeneity we examine the design of policies for promoting the consumption of green products under preference and income heterogeneity using organic food products as an example two instruments are considered a price subsidy for the organic food products and a tax on the conventional products under income disparity consumers with high income always prefer a socially optimal subsidy to a socially optimal tax while low income consumers prefer a tax on conventional products when environmental policy is determined by the median voter the policies implemented tend to be stricter than socially optimal policies if income differences are large

what drives markups evolutionary pricing in an agent based stock flow consistent macroeconomic model this paper studies coordination between firms in a multi sectoral macroeconomic model with endogenous business cycles firms are both in competition and interdependent and set their prices with a markup over unit costs markups are heterogeneous and evolve under market pressure we observe a systematic coordination within firms in each sector and between each sector the resulting pattern of relative prices are consistent with the labor theory of value those emerging features are robust to technology shocks

trading rules and the environment does equal treatment lead to a cleaner world abstract in this paper we consider a three stage game in the context of a competing exporters model to compare and contrast the effects of discriminatory and uniform most favored nation mfn tariffs on countries choice over environmental standards for varying degrees of pollution spillovers because of the presence of punishment effects and stronger own and cross tariff effects we find that discrimination yields higher standards than mfn and free trade independently of the extent of pollution spillovers when pollution is local and incentives to free ride on other countries abatement efforts are weak we show however that welfare is larger under mfn than under discrimination in a dynamic setting we consider the impact of symmetric and asymmetric treatments on the sustainability of an international environmental agreement iea and obtain that multilateral cooperation is easier to sustain under discrimination than under mfn or free trade

deleveraging crises and deep recessions a behavioural approach macroeconomic dynamics are characterized by alternating patterns of periods of relative stability and large swings standard micro founded macro economic models account for these patterns through exogenous and persistent shocks in this paper we develop a fully decentralized and micro founded macro economic agent based model augmented with an opinion model which produces endogenous waves of pessimism and optimism that feed back into firms leverage and households precautionary saving behaviour a major emergent property of our model is precisely the complex successions of stable and unstable macro economic regimes the model is further able to account for a wide spectrum of macro and micro empirical regularities within this framework we analyse a series of macro economic phenomena of key relevance in the current macro economic debate especially the occurrence of deleveraging crises and fisherian debt deflation recessions our analysis suggests that the relative dynamics of prices and wages and the resulting income distribution along a deflation ary path are critical determinants of the severity of the recession and the chances of recovery

trade politics and the environment tailpipe vs smokestack abstract the vast majority of economic research on environmental regulation in open economies focuses on producer generated smokestack pollution we instead consider consumer generated tailpipe pollution we examine how political opposition to environmental regulation varies with a country s trade regime and show that the impact on environmental policy of a move from autarky to free trade can depend critically on who ultimately generates pollution producers or consumers we find that opening to trade may raise industry opposition to smokestack regulation but reduce its opposition to strict tailpipe policy

income inequality and pollution a reassessment of the environmental kuznets curve abstract improvements in some measures of air and water quality can accompany rising per capita income as illustrated by the so called environmental kuznets curve for pollution variables which show such a relationship we hypothesize that a more equitable distribution of power contributes to these outcomes by enhancing the influence on policy of those who bear the costs of pollution relative to the influence of those who benefit from pollution generating activities an empirical analysis of international variations in seven indicators of air and water quality supports this hypothesis literacy political rights and civil liberties are found to have particularly strong effects on environmental quality in low income countries

agent based stock flow consistent macroeconomics towards a benchmark model abstract the paper moves from a discussion of the challenges posed by the crisis to standard macroeconomics and the solutions adopted within the dsge community although several recent improvements have enhanced the realism of standard models we argue that major drawbacks still undermine their reliability in particular dsge models still fail to recognize the complex adaptive nature of economic systems and the implications of money endogeneity the paper argues that a coherent and exhaustive representation of the inter linkages between the real and financial sides of the economy should be a pivotal feature of every macroeconomic model and proposes a macroeconomic framework based on the combination of the agent based and stock flow consistent approaches the papers aims at contributing to the nascent ab sfc literature under two fundamental respects first we develop a fully decentralized ab sfc model with several innovative features and we thoroughly validate it in order to check whether the model is a good candidate for policy analysis applications results suggest that the properties of the model match many empirical regularities ranking among the best performers in the related literature and that these properties are robust across different parameterizations second the paper has also a methodological purpose in that we try to provide a set or rules and tools to build calibrate validate and display ab sfc models

schumpeter meeting keynes a policy friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles this paper studies an agent based model that bridges keynesian theories of demandgeneration and schumpeterian theories of technology fueled economic growth we employ the model to investigate the properties of macroeconomic dynamics and the impact of public polices on supply demand and the fundamentals of the economy we find profound complementarities between factors influencing aggregate demand and drivers of technological change that affect both short run fluctuations and longterm growth patterns from a normative point of view simulations show a corresponding complementarity between keynesian and schumpeterian policies in sustaining long run growth paths characterized by milder fluctuations and relatively lower unemployment levels the matching or mismatching between innovative exploration of new technologies and the conditions of demand generation appear to suggest the presence of two distinct regimes of growth or absence thereof characterized by different short run fluctuations and unemployment levels

stabilizing an unstable complex economy on the limitations of simple rules abstract this paper offers a systematic comparison of a wide range of leaning against the wind interest rate policy rules within a macroeconomic stock flow consistent agent based model the model generates endogenous booms and busts along credit cycles as feedback loops on aggregate demand affect the goods and the labor markets the real and the financial sides of the economy are closely interconnected the baseline scenario is able to qualitatively reproduce a wide range of stylized facts we show that a monetary policy rule that targets the movements in the net worth of firms significantly dampens the credit cycles and reduces the employment costs of financial crises because this indicator incorporates early signals of financial imbalances performances of this three mandate taylor rule are also more robust to the specific parameter values and regulatory framework than the standard dual mandate taylor rules nonetheless none of the policy rules under study completely eliminates the high employment costs of financial crises

voting for pollution policy the importance of income inequality and openness to trade abstract this paper analyzes how openness and the distribution of factor ownership interact to determine individual and aggregate demand for pollution policy analysis of voter preferences in autarky shows that an increased stake in either the dirty or the clean industry can induce an individual voter to prefer stricter environmental policy similarly the paper shows that poorer voters may be the greener voters within an electorate the model also reveals that the incidence of pollution policy depends upon a country s trade regime with consequences for the direction in which income inequality influences aggregate demand for pollution policy

disequilibrium dynamics an empirical study despite the amount of attention devoted in economics to the study of equilibria the process by which an equilibrium can be attained is not well understood stephen smale 1977 called this the fundamental problem of economic theory this paper explores the microeconomics of the adjustment process by examining empirically the disequilibrium behavior of firms implications for the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics are stressed the data from german industry describe the month by month price and output changes of individual firms as well as the firms own assessments of the levels of their inventories and unfilled orders because the data are qualitative use is made of the multivariate conditional logit model developed by marc nerlove and s james press 1973 1976 and extended by kawasaki and zimmermann section i discusses the underlying model of firm behavior and the significance of the inquiry for macroeconomics in section ii the econometric techniques are briefly described in section iii the empirical results are summarized and interpretations of the results are offered in section iv

toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis the great recession that followed the financial crisis of 2007 is not only the largest economic crisis after the great depression of the 1930s it also signals a crisis of economics as a discipline this is not only the consequence of the inadequacy of mainstream macroeconomics and specifically the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge workhorse model to forecast such a huge event or at least to detect the worrying tendencies towards it even more relevant is the choice to explicitly avoid the modeling of large crises that for someone is a motivation for not attacking pre crisis dsge models focused on the analysis of small deviations from the steady state so denying the intrinsic nature of capitalism a system that necessarily proceeds through cycles and extended crises the replies of the dsge approach to critics have led to extensions regarding for instance the role of financial frictions heterogeneous agents and bounded rationality though typically in the form of quasi rational expectations the alternative paradigm of agent based ab macroeconomics can take into account all these elements at once within an evolutionary modeling framework based on heterogeneity and interaction so capable to endogenously reproduce complex dynamics from small fluctuations to large crises due to innovation and industrial dynamics rising inequality and financial instability and so on the integration between ab macroeconomics and the post keynesian stock flow consistent approach represents a promising way for the future development of this research field

income inequality consumption credit and credit risk in a data driven agent based model abstract the issue of income inequality occupies a prominent position in the research agenda of academic and policy circles alike especially after the crisis of 2008 due to its potential causal link with the development of credit bubbles and therefore the emergence of financial crises this paper examines the long run effect of income inequality on consumption consumer credit and non performing loans through the means of a data driven agent based model the data driven nature of the model enhances its ability to match historical series and thus makes it suitable for policy simulations tailored for specific economies the analysis indicates that higher income inequality has a detrimental impact on consumption and is associated with lower volumes of consumer credit however the ratio of non performing loans as a share of total loans seems to be independent of income inequality

cleaning up while cleaning up pollution abatement interest groups and contingent trade policies this paper analyzes the political economy of environmental policy formation in a trading economy with established rules for administered protection we argue that the social costs associated with the adoption of an inefficient environmental regime are likely to be compounded by induced restrictions on trade when the effected industries are import competing the preferences of interest groups for alternative environmental regimes tend to be linked to the legal institutional setting in which trade policy is conducted under existing rules and practices in the area of administered protection there is reason to believe that interest group preferences for an inefficient approach to pollution control will be strengthened because the adoption of such a regime is more likely to lead to a concomitant increase in trade barriers

emergent dynamics of a macroeconomic agent based model with capital and credit in this paper we present and discuss a macroeconomic agent based model with capital and credit cc mabm which builds upon the framework put forward by delli gatti et al 2011 the novelty of this model with respect to the previous framework consists in the introduction of a stylized supply chain where upstream firms i e producers of capital goods k firms supply a durable and sticky input capital to the downstream firms who produce consumption goods c firms to be sold to households both c firms and k firms resort to bank loans to satisfy their financing needs there are two way feedbacks between firms and markets which yield interesting emerging properties at the macro level we show that the interaction of upstream and downstream firms and the evolution of their financial conditions in a nutshell capital and credit are essential ingredients of a crisis i e a sizable slump followed by a long recovery

relief for the environment the importance of an increasingly unimportant industrial sector deindustrialization stagnant real incomes of production workers and increasing inequality are latter day features of many economies it is common to assume that such developments pressure policymakers to relax environmental standards however when heavily polluting industries become less important economically their political importance also tends to diminish consequently a regulator may increase the stringency of environmental policies like some other studies we find that declining industrial employment translates into stricter environmental standards in contrast to previous studies but consistent with our argument we find that greater income inequality is associated with policies that promote a cleaner environment jel q58 p16 j31 c23