forest dependence and income distribution in a subsistence economy evidence from india abstract we examine an area of northern india where forestry acts to ameliorate the incidence of poverty and destitution though it does not otherwise contribute significantly to the reduction of income inequality the poor would be doubly disadvantaged without common property access to forest products conservation measures entailing curtailment in the right to common access pose a dilemma this issue is explored here

can a raise in your wage make you worse off a public goods perspective abstract we show that a seemingly paradoxical result is possible an increase in one s wage can reduce one s welfare such outcome can occur in an economy populated by agents who value a private good bought using labor income and a public good produced by voluntary time contributions a raise in the wage in general opportunity cost of time makes each agent substitute away from contributing to the public good failing to internalize the negative externality imposed on others the result is a decrease in public good provision under quite general conditions the implied cumulative negative effect on agents welfare can more than offset the positive effect of the wage raise from increased private good consumption and lead to an equilibrium in which all agents are worse off our result is particularly relevant for developing economy settings as it holds for relatively low initial wage levels we discuss the applicability of our findings to a number of important problems in development such as market integration cooperation in common pool resource conservation and social capital

real exchange rates and relative prices an empirical investigation abstract this paper uncovers a striking empirical regularity the consumer price of a good relative to a different good within a country tends to be much less variable than the price of that good relative to a similar good in another country this fact seems to hold for all goods except very simple homogeneous products models of real exchange rates are likely to have predictions regarding this relation so this fact may provide a useful gauge for discriminating among models

fish as the bank in the water evidence from chronic poor communities in congo abstract small scale fisheries in developing countries are often perceived as being a low productivity and backward informal sector as a result they are rarely considered in poverty reduction programmes and rural development planning in this paper we investigate the dual role of fish as a food and cash crop through data collected in river fisheries in democratic republic of congo drc fishing in this very remote rural region of drc is operated both by men and women as part of a household multiple activity livelihood strategy the data shows that poor households rely heavily on fishing for their supply of protein rich food in particular through women s subsistence catches fishing also appears to be the main source of cash income for the majority of households including local farmers based on these findings and a review of the literature the paper argues that small scale fisheries can play a fundamental role in local economies especially in remote rural areas where they strengthen significantly the livelihoods of people through their role in both food security and cash income generation

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

links between the local trade in natural products livelihoods and poverty alleviation in a semi arid region of south africa can the local commercialization of natural products contribute to reduced poverty and vulnerability commentary on this issue is mixed with some observers being quite optimistic while others hold a counterview this paper explores the poverty alleviation potential of four products traded in bushbuckridge south africa traditional brooms reed mats woodcraft and marula beer while key in enhancing the livelihood security of the poorest households these products were unlikely to provide a route out of poverty for most although there were exceptions incomes often surpassed local wage rates and some producers obtained returns equivalent to the minimum wage non financial benefits such as the opportunity to work from home were highly rated and the trade was found to represent a range of livelihood strategies both within and across products

are prices too sticky nominal price rigidity has a negative externality rigidity in one firm s price increases the variability of aggregate real spending which harms all firms this paper investigates whether this externality is large which would imply that stabilization policy can be highly beneficial even if the costs of making prices flexible are small there are three conclusions first both the private cost of price rigidity and the externality are second order in the size of fluctuations second the externality can nonetheless be arbitrarily large third in a simple model the externality is small for plausible parameter values

co integration error and purchasing power parity between canada and the united states the concept of cointegration and the associated error correction representation of a dynamic process see r f engle and c w g granger 1987 is applied to the purchasing power parity relationship between canada and the united states the results are supportive of purchasing power parity as a long run equilibrium relationship between the canadian dollar american dollar exchange rate the purchasing power parity relationship is maintained although with different dynamic mechanisms during both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes

an empirical examination of long run purchasing power parity as theory of international commodity arbitrage an empirical analysis of long run purchasing power parity ppp as a theory of international commodity arbitrage between uk and us prices and the sterling us dollar exchange rate for the period 1975 1980 is presented econometric techniques concerning the cointegration of economic time series are applied to a sample of 35 manufactured commodities which in 1977 constituted approximately a quarter of the net output of all manufacturing industry in great britain our results are extremely unfavourable to the ppp hypothesis as a stable long run proportionality between exchange rates and disaggregated prices

persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks this paper presents a theoretical basis for the argument that large exchange rate shocks such as the 1980s dollar cycle may have persistent effects on trade flows and the equilibrium exchange rate itself we begin with a partial equilibrium model in which large exchange rate fluctuations lead to entry or exit decisions that are not reversed when the currency returns to its previous level then we develop a simple model of the feedback from hysteresis in trade to the exchange rate itself here we see that a large capital inflow which leads to an initial appreciation can result in a persistent reduction in the exchange rate consistent with trade balance

real and nominal exchange rates in the long run an empirical investigation abstract this paper reports on econometric tests of the hypothesis that purchasing power parity holds as a long run relationship using data on eight industrialized countries during the flexible exchange rate period the empirical work proceeds by i testing whether nominal exchange rates and relative price levels are co integrated and ii conducting impulse response analysis of long run exchange rate and relative price level changes to explain the data keynesian models suggest that shocks during the estimation period were due principally to exogenous shifts in aggregate demand while equilibrium models suggest that monetary factors have been relatively more important

is the sticky price assumption reasonable for exchange rate models abstract the testable implications of sticky price exchange rate models are discussed the empirical examples suggest that the predetermined or sticky price assumption employed in recent asset models of exchange rate determination appears to be appropriate for germany japan the united states and the united kingdom

shocks income and wealth do they affect the extraction of natural resources by rural households summary this paper examines the effects of household and village level characteristics on environmental reliance and participation in resource extraction decisions unlike previous analyses that used case studies or regional samples i use a nationally representative sample of rural households rounds i and ii of the mexico national rural household survey enhrum econometric results show that participation in resource extraction follows an inverted u shaped relationship with income and that environmental reliance decreases with income beyond income results show that relatively wealthy households in rural mexico are less likely to participate in resource extraction and have lower reliance than those with less wealth there is also clear evidence that natural resources provide some sort of insurance for households that are subjected to negative agricultural shocks

incidence of forest income on reduction of inequality evidence from forest dependent households in milieu of joint forest management abstract this study suggests that there is a narrower scope to expand income inequality with the increase in forest source of income to total income relative to non forest income irrespective of the type of forest fringe villages the addition of forest income after joint forest management jfm reduces measured income inequality by about 12 all else equal in the jfm involved households but no such perceptible decrease has been found for non jfm households during this period categorically forest income plays the dominant role in reducing measured income inequality for those households who are relatively asset poor and that also live below poverty line the study also shows that the non involvement in jfm programme by the non jfm households might bring about a major environmental shirking because illegal timber income constitutes the major part in total income for non jfm households even after jfm scenario

non farm income and inequality in rural pakistan a decomposition analysis this article uses three year panel data to analyse the impact of non farm income on income inequality in rural pakistan after pinpointing the importance of rural non farm income for the poor the article decomposes total rural income among five sources non farm agricultural livestock rental and transfer this decomposition shows that non farm income represents an inequality decreasing source of income the study then decomposes the sources of non farm income this analysis reveals that while non farm unskilled labour income has an equalising effect on income distribution non farm government income has a disequalising effect

commons as insurance and the welfare impact of privatization abstract it is shown here that despite the efficiency gains from privatization when markets are incomplete all individuals may be made worse off by privatization even when the resource is equitably privatized such market incompleteness is common in the developing world and can explain the often encountered resistance to efficiency enhancing privatizing reforms especially in the case of village level landholdings and forests the advantage of common held property arises because of its superior insurance properties which tend to provide income maintenance in low states sufficient conditions are established under which any feasible insurance scheme under private property cannot ex ante pareto dominate allocations under the commons

aggregate price indexes cointegration and tests of the purchasing power parity hypothesis abstract in this paper i show that cointegration tests of ppp using aggregate price indexes are not always robust to changes in relative prices i offer a method of gauging the importance of these effects and find them to be unimportant in recent rejections of ppp

cointegration how short is the long run abstract when testing for cointegration and faced with short sample periods it is common for researchers to turn to more frequently sampled observations that is to move from annual to quarterly or monthly data in order to increase the number of observations we argue that such a gain in the degrees of freedom is more apparent than real essentially cointegration is a long run concept and hence requires long spans of data to give tests for cointegration much power rather than merely large numbers of observations using monte carlo simulations we demonstrate this for four popular tests for cointegration

heterogeneity and collective management evidence from common forests in himachal pradesh india summary this paper conducts a statistical investigation into the impact of differences in economic benefits wealth and social classes within the community on collective management of forests there are two key results first social parochialism is not a pre requisite for collective management of forests moderate levels of social diversity are associated with low collective management but at high levels of social diversity collective management is high second moderate wealth heterogeneity is beneficial however at high levels and in the presence of benefit heterogeneity it decreases collective management similarly benefit heterogeneity reduces collective management if wealth heterogeneity also exists these results run counter to the dominant understanding of heterogeneity but may be seen as alternate explanations under a specific socioeconomic context

environmental income and rural livelihoods a global comparative analysis this paper presents results from a comparative analysis of environmental income from approximately 8000 households in 24 developing countries collected by research partners in cifor s poverty environment network pen environmental income accounts for 28 of total household income 77 of which comes from natural forests environmental income shares are higher for low income households but differences across income quintiles are less pronounced than previously thought the poor rely more heavily on subsistence products such as wood fuels and wild foods and on products harvested from natural areas other than forests in absolute terms environmental income is approximately five times higher in the highest income quintile compared to the two lowest quintiles

haircuts or hysteresis sources of movements in real exchange rates abstract we empirically assess the importance of two sources of real exchange rate movements in models where ppp holds only among traded goods real exchange rate variation results from relative price movements within countries an alternative explanation relies on hysteretic price setting and nominal exchange rate changes using disaggregated price data from 11 oecd nations we find some support for the non traded goods models for example prices of haircuts in canada and the united states are unrelated in the long run we find stronger evidence to support models that emphasize sticky prices transportation costs or other impediments to frictionless trade

assessing poverty deforestation links evidence from swat pakistan abstract this paper contributes to the debate on the links between poverty and forestry degradation the view that due to poverty and the meeting of subsistence needs the poor use natural resources more intensively and hence cause them to degrade using the case of the forest rich swat district pakistan the paper addresses the issue empirically historically and institutionally we do not find empirical support for the poverty environment nexus in that the poor and other income groups are equally resource dependent and also show that resource degradation is not associated with poverty our historical and institutional analyses provide alternative explanations for resource degradation selective and rotating ownership patterns starting with the 17th century provided limited incentive for resource conservation it also created tension between de jure and de facto owners that has persisted and is one source of forest degradation ill defined resource rights have also exacerbated the impacts of several other factors contributing to forest degradation which is compounded by poor management corruption and perverse incentives

real exchange rates under the gold standard purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics empirically it is also one of the most hotly contested numerous recent studies for example have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post bretton woods float and have reached different conclusions we assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons first the post 1973 data contain by definition only a very limited amount of the low frequency information relevant for examination of long run parity second the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to admissible low frequency dynamics both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper with dramatic results we construct a new data set of 16 real exchange rates covering more than a century of the classic gold standard period and we study deviations from parity using long memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean

household wealth status and natural resource use in the kat river valley south africa abstract much work has demonstrated the significant role and value of non timber forest products ntfps in the livelihoods of rural people in southern africa and elsewhere the findings provide a mean or composite picture averaged across the sample households within each community yet within any given community there is significant socio economic differentiation it is important to acknowledge such differentiation when considering policy and management interventions to support rural livelihoods and promote sustainable resource use this paper reports on a study in south africa the objective of which was to explore wealth related differences and similarities in the use and value of ntfps data on ntfp consumption purchase and sale were collected from households in three rural villages households were divided into three wealth classes and patterns of ntfps use between the classes examined there was no difference in the proportions of households in each wealth class using ntfps nor the total number of ntfps used per household yet there was some supporting evidence that poorer households derive greater benefits from ntfps than do wealthy or intermediate households one clear difference was that with increasing wealth households purchased significantly more ntfps and a greater proportion of wealthy households did so conversely a greater proportion of poor households were involved in the sale of one or more ntfps and they sold a greater number per household compared to wealthy and intermediate households detailed examination of use and value of four ntfps fuelwood wild fruits edible herbs and grass hand brushes revealed that in all instances the poorest households used more of the resource per capita than the other wealth classes this was not the case for comparisons based on the total household as the unit of analysis gross annual direct use value did not differ between the wealth classes for any of the four ntfps examined at the household level but on a per capita basis a significantly higher gross annual direct use value was evident within poorer households for fuelwood and edible herbs the significance of these differences is discussed

poverty alleviation and tropical forests what scope for synergies abstract this paper explores the state of the art of the two way causal links between poverty alleviation and natural tropical forests microimpacts of rising poverty can increase or slow forest loss at the macrolevel poverty also has an ambiguous effect but it is probable that higher income stimulates forest loss by raising demand for agricultural land the second question is what potential forest led development has to alleviate a country s poverty in terms of producer benefits consumer benefits and economy wide employment natural forests widely serve as safety nets for the rural poor but it proves difficult to raise producer benefits significantly urban consumer benefits from forest an important target for pro poor agricultural innovation are limited and seldom favor the poor absorption of poor unskilled labor is low in forestry which tends to be capital intensive natural forests may thus lack comparative advantage for poverty alleviation there are few win win synergies between natural forests and national poverty reduction which may help to explain why the loss of tropical forests is ongoing this may have important implications for our understanding of sustainable forest development and for the design of both conservation and poverty alleviation strategies

income and the environment in rural india is there a poverty trap we study the relationships between rural income distributions and changes in environmental conditions in southern western and central india between 1994 95 and 2000 01 other than the relatively rich we find that all income strata benefit from an improved environment and intermediate expenditure households benefit more than the very poor in absolute terms higher median consumption expenditures and richness are estimated to increase environmental decline but we do not find a significant impact of income poverty on local environmental health the results do not support the poverty trap conjecture with environmental degradation driving expenditure reductions that promote offsetting aforestation which benefits the poor

outside opportunities and termination abstract we study a dynamic principal agent relationship where a stochastic outside opportunity offer arises each period for the risk averse agent termination is costly but it allows the agent to pursue the available outside opportunity and the principal to return to an external market to hire a new agent the principal acts strategically with respect to the agent s outside offers and we show that it is optimal to terminate the current relationship if and only if the agent s outside offer is above a cutoff level the optimal contract generates both voluntary and involuntary terminations severance compensation arises endogenously and we show that it may be paid only in involuntary terminations conditional on termination the size of the optimal severance compensation depends positively on the agent s current compensation but negatively on his outside offer the optimal contract dictates an inverted u relationship between compensation and the probability of termination

cointegration and tests of purchasing power parity nonstationarity in the levels of spot exchange rates and domestic and foreign price indices makes the use of conventional tests of the absolute version of purchasing power parity ppp inappropriate if ppp is true inter country commodity arbitrage ensures that deviations from a linear combination of spot exchange rates and domestic and foreign price levels should be stationary under these conditions exchange rates and price levels should form a cointegrated system we find the null hypothesis of no cointegration cannot be rejected for all five countries thus violating the long run absolute version of ppp

a model of exchange rate dynamics this model treats the exchange rate as an asset price that depends on expectations concerning exogenous real and monetary factors that will affect relative prices and absolute price levels in future periods changes in exchange rates reflect both expected changes in these exogenous factors and changes in expectations occasioned by new information the model explains the random component in exchange rate behavior the source of divergences from purchasing power parity the anticipatory response of exchange rates to future expected disturbances and the causes of exchange rate overshooting

small menu costs and large business cycles a macroeconomic model of monopoly i introduction the conflict between modern neoclassical and traditional keynesian theories of the business cycle centers upon the pricing mechanism in neoclassical models prices are fully flexible they represent the continuous optimization of economic agents and the continuous intersection of supply and demand in keynesian models prices are often assumed to be sticky they do not necessarily equilibrate all markets at all times one of the reasons for the resurgence of the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics has been the absence of a theoretical underpinning for this keynesian price stickiness this note shows that sticky prices can be both privately efficient and socially inefficient the business cycle results from the suboptimal adjustment of prices in response to a demand shock to the extent that policy can stabilize aggregate demand it can mitigate the social loss due to this suboptimal adjustment in some keynesian models prices are simply exogenously fixed 2 in others agents must set their prices in advance of the transaction date the act of altering a posted price is certainly costly these costs include such items as printing new catalogs and informing salesmen of the new price yet these menu costs are small and therefore generally perceived as providing only a weak foundation for these fixed price models however this inference is flawed small menu costs can cause large welfare losses the claim that price adjustment costs are small does not rebut the claim that they are central to understanding economic fluctuations

poverty and resource dependence in rural india abstract previous studies of rural households in developing countries have tended to find that the dependence of these households on common pool resources declines with income our study of households in jhabua india finds a more complex relationship using the share of resource income in total long run or permanent income as our dependence measure which we argue is more appropriate than the short run income based measure commonly used in the literature we find that for households that collect any resources at all dependence exhibits a u shaped relationship with income that is the poorest and richest households depend more on resources than households with intermediate incomes the poorest and richest households are also found to be least likely to collect however indicating that resource use at the income extremes is bimodal either zero or above average moreover the observed trends for resources as a whole are not mirrored in those for individual resources dependence on fuelwood and dung declines with income for example while dependence on fodder and construction wood increases these findings suggest that common pool resources are a productive source of income not just for the poor but also for the rich and that improvements in the stocks of these resources can potentially form the basis of poverty reduction efforts in these economies

a note on a troublesome axiom for poverty indices in a recent article in this journal clark hemming and ulph i98i henceforth chu review the recent literature on welfare indices for the measurement of poverty and propose two new such indices the axiomatic approach to the measurement of poverty which was initiated by sen 1976 has been from the very beginning plagued with difficulties with the transfer axiom and chu s paper is not altogether immune we show that one of their two indices does not satisfy the axiom and we take this opportunity to complement their review with a few remarks in particular we show that the index proposed by kakwani ig80a has the same defect let y be a non negative income vector and z the poverty line the number of people with income no larger than the poverty line is q and the total population n assuming y y2 n y gi z yi i i q are the income gaps following chu the reader is referred to their paper for the motivation let us define the equally distributed equivalent income gap as

exchange rates and prices the adjustment of relative prices to exchange rate movements is explained in an industrial organization approach given labor costs in the respective currencies exchange rate movements change costs for firms selling in the home market and thus disturb the industry equilibrium the extent of absolute and relative price adjustment is shown to depend on market integration product substitutability the relative number of domestic and foreign firms and the market structure the impact of exchange rates on prices is illustrated in a variety of approaches including the cournot a dixit and j stiglitz 1977 and s salop 1979 models some empirical evidence is offered in support of the theory copyright 1987 by american economic association