telecommunications in greece a study of production structure and natural monopoly issue until recently telecoms were everywhere large monopolies basically because their production was believed to have many natural monopoly attributes now new forces originated in technological evolution have set in to transform the monopoly regime but did natural monopoly attributes really exist the empirical evidence under consideration concerns hellenic telecom a complete study of the industry s production structure and a natural monopoly test are offered test s results are important for policy formation regarding market s degree of liberalization in greece given also the resemblance of current technology in different countries it is possible to claim a more general validity of the obtained results on production technology beyond the specific case studied

effective purchasing power in a quantity constrained economy an estimate for the german democratic republic a measure of microeconomic disequilibrium for households facing both budget and quantity constraints is estimated from east german data using a new specification the flexible cobb douglas utility function the parameters of a german direct utility function are estimated from west german family budgets it is estimated that an average east german family in 1977 would have been willing to give up 13 of its total expenditure in order to attain its demands at official prices

regulation and efficiency in transition the case of telecommunications in italy abstract in regulating the telecommunications industry the separation between network and retail functions which is designed to countervail the market power of incumbent operators is a relevant issue despite its importance little empirical research has addressed the effects of such a separation accordingly this paper provides insights into the consequences of the italian communications regulatory authority s agcom decision to impose this type of separation on the incumbent telecommunications operator telecom italia in particular the studied separation is between the firm s network related functions and those used for provision of its communication services the present research finds that the type of separation implemented by agcom allows a provider to maintain the advantages of operational scale in its network structure without dampening competition in the existing market for communications services the study also offers further empirical evidence on the advantages of a composite vs translog function in analyzing the multiproduct cost structure of a telecommunications operator

consumption housing collateral and the canadian business cycle using bayesian methods we estimate a small open economy model in which consumers face limits to credit determined by the value of their housing stock the purpose of this paper is to quantify the role of collateralized household debt in the canadian business cycle

a test for subadditivity of the cost function with an application to the bell system stable url http links jstor org sici sici 0002 8282 28198409 2974 3a4 3c615 3aatfsot 3e2 0 co 3b2 rthe american economic review is currently published by american economic association your use of the jstor archive indicates your acceptance of jstor s terms and conditions of use available athttp www jstor org about terms html jstor s terms and conditions of use provides in part that unless you have obtainedprior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content inthe jstor archive only for your personal non commercial use please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work publisher contact information may be obtained athttp www jstor org journals aea html each copy of any part of a jstor transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission the jstor archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world the archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations it is an initiative of jstor a not for profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology for more information regarding jstor please contact support jstor org http www jstor orgmon jul 2 16 52 19 2007

probability models and robust policy rules abstract we consider sims s 2008 argument that robust policy making requires that policy models be treated as probability models in a welfare based setting we estimate by bayesian methods a number of variants of a new keynesian macroeconomic model and use both the model odds and posterior densities to design robust interest rate rules consisting of an inflation forecast based rule and a wage targeting one each are shown to have distinct robustness qualities and distinct implications for the probability models approach to ensure feasible policy we further impose that rules are stable determinate and lower bound compatible our results have important implications for the design evaluation and analysis of the probability models approach to robust monetary policy making

simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty abstract we analyze the performance and robustness of some common simple rules for monetary policy in a new keynesian open economy model under different assumptions about the exchange rate model adding the exchange rate to an optimized taylor rule that responds to cpi inflation gives only small improvements in terms of economic stability in most model configurations the taylor rule is also slightly more robust to uncertainty about the exchange rate model than are rules that respond to the rate of exchange rate depreciation our results thus indicate that the taylor rule is sufficient to stabilize a small open economy also under exchange rate model uncertainty

the performance and robustness of simple monetary policy rules in models of the canadian economy in this report we evaluate several simple monetary policy rules in twelve private and public sector models of the canadian economy our results indicate that none of the simple policy rules we examined is robust to model uncertainty in that no single rule performs well in all models

an empirical analysis of scale and scope economies and technical change in an irish multiproduct banking firm abstract in contrast to most empirical investigations of the efficiency of multiproduct financial institutions which either estimate scale and scope economies with a given state of technology or only analyse technical change in the presence of overall scale economies this study estimates overall scale economies product specific scale economies and scope economies in the presence of both neutral and non neutral technical change also in contrast to most other empirical studies in this area standard errors are computed for all relevant statistics the findings indicate diseconomies of scope overall diseconomies of scale product specific economies are decreasing for investments and increasing for loans in addition to substantial neutral technical change biased technical change is labour and capital saving and deposits using in character

the influence of central planning on the economic slowdown in the soviet union and eastern europe a comparative production function analysis the estimation of various forms of the production function and because of the use of different data sets predictions of future growth based on these calculations have varied significantly but generally have implied continued decreasing growth of the economy the interpretation is that there are system determined technological constraints in the soviet economy causing the slowdown in growth and that these constraints are identifiable through the parameters of an aggregate production function the finding of diminishing returns to capital is linked to the belief that existing and future deployments of capital cannot be improved and the decreasing rate of factor productivity growth is attributed to microeconomic barriers to the introduction and diffusion of new technology and to expectations about future trends in technical and economic inefficiency the validity of these inferences has not been systematically tested although

the role of the exchange rate in monetary policy rules for a country that chooses not to permanently fix its exchange rate through a currency board or a common currency or some kind of dollarization the only alternative monetary policy that can work well in the long run is one based on the trinity of i a flexible exchange rate ii an inflation target and iii a monetary policy rule while not often put into this threepart format the desirability of such a monetary policy in an open economy is in my view the clear implication of three corresponding strands of recent monetary research i research on fixed exchange rates regimes including the influential 1995 article the mirage of fixed exchange rates by maurice obstfeld and kenneth rogoff and the many analyses of the breakdown of fixed exchange rate regimes in the late 1990 s ii research on the practical success with inflation targeting by ben bernanke et al 1999 and iii research on the benefits of simple monetary policy rules see e g taylor 1999a this clear policy implication however does not end the debate about how exchange rates should be taken into account in formulating monetary policy even if one excludes capital controls and sterilized exchange market intervention from consideration because they are not effective or attractive ways to de link exchangerate movements from the domestic interest rate a crucial question remains how should the instruments of monetary policy the interest rate or a monetary aggregate react to the exchange rate should policymakers avoid any reaction and focus instead on domestic indicators such as inflation and real gdp or is the rule of thumb that a substantial appreciation of the real exchange rate furnishes a prima facie case for relaxing monetary policy as characterized by obstfeld and rogoff 1995 p 93 a better monetary policy rule or perhaps policymakers should heed the obstfeld rogoff warning that substantial departures from ppp purchasing power parity in the short run and even over decades make such a policy reaction to the exchange rate undesirable more generally if one accepts the trinity concept of monetary policy in an open economy then what is the role of the exchange rate in the monetarypolicy rule

optimal monetary policy in open versus closed economies an integrated approach in clarida et al 1999 hereafter cgg we presented a normative analysis of monetary policy within a simple optimization based closedeconomy framework we derived the optimal policy rule and among other things characterized the gains from commitment also we made precise the implications for the kind of instrument feedback rule that a central bank should follow in practice in this paper we show how our analysis extends to the case of a small open economy openness complicates the problem of monetary management to the extent the central bank must take into account the impact of the exchange rate on real activity and inflation how to factor the exchange rate into the overall design of monetary policy accordingly becomes a central consideration here we show that under certain conditions the monetary policy design problem for the small open economy is isomorphic to the problem of the closed economy that we considered earlier hence all our qualitative results for the closed economy carry over to this case openness does affect the parameters of the model suggesting quantitative implications though the general form of the optimal interest rate feedback rule remains the same as in the closedeconomy case for example how aggressively a central bank should adjust the interest rate in response to inflationary pressures depends on the degree of openness in addition openness gives rise to an important distinction between domestic inflation and consumer price inflation as defined by the cpi to the extent that there is perfect exchange rate pass through we find that the central bank should target domestic inflation and allow the exchange rate to float despite the impact of the resulting exchangerate variability on the cpi kosuki aoki 1999 gali and tommaso monacelli 2000

access costs and entry in the local telecommunications network a case for de averaged rates abstract the telecommunications bill passed by congress in february 1996 means that the present method of covering the cost of customer access to the local telecommunications network through non cost based access charges cannot be sustained over the long run however there is a belief that cost based rates at the local level would be prohibitively high and would threaten universal service objectives major tasks facing the federal communications commission and state regulators will be determining what the terms and charges for interconnection should be and who will bear the costs associated with universal service this work estimates a generalized translog cost function of access costs at the local level in order to address these issues the results of this study are that there are economies of scale in the provision of access to the local network and that these costs differ by geographical location one of the important findings of this study is that contrary to popular belief cost based rates at the local level would not be prohibitively high and would not threaten universal service objectives however given the existence of economies of scale pro competitive regulatory controls will be required that will restrain dominant carriers from abusing their market power and network owners from squeezing out new entrants

modelling cost structure the bell system revisited this paper analyses a recent public policy decision and the crucial role played by the choice of the functional form the break up of the bell system is indeed a classic case of anti trust settlement and constitutes one of the most prominent and controversial applications of microeconomics to public policy it is argued that demanding multi output cost properties such as economies of scope for this is the considerable robustness problem displayed by the tranlog cost functional form the reason for this is the considerable able to robustness problem displayed by the translog cost function which is the source underlying many of the expert disagreements it is suggested that the non robustness is due to what ils termed the flip flop property and it is shown that the available empirical evidence from the pre divestiture bell system supports this argument to obtain robust results we propose that the analysis is constrained to the proper region of the cost function we propose that the analysis is con

structural adjustment policies and productive efficiency of socialist enterprises abstract the paper uses panel data from a five percent stratified random sample of yugoslav industrial enterprises to test several hypotheses about the determinants of productive efficiency the estimating procedure selects the production function best supported by the data and allows for industry specific production function parameters as well as from firm specific fixed or random effects the instrumental variable estimates suggest that productive efficiency is unaffected by the four structural policy variables whose effect we examine the extent of export orientation joint venture status divisionalization of the firm and the firm s market share

the role of fixed costs and cost complementarities in determining scope economies and the cost of narrow banking proposals narrow banking proposals would separate insured deposits from most types of bank lending using data from large u s banks the authors examine the extent to which narrow banking proposals are likely to result in increased production costs production costs will rise for nonjoint provision of deposit and loan services if there are cost complementarities in producing the two outputs jointly or if joint production enables banks to spread their fixed costs more effectively unlike standard cost function approaches the authors methods allow them to estimate the fixed cost and cost complementarity effects separately they find the net production cost consequences of narrow banking to be negligible copyright 1993 by university of chicago press

inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule the purpose of the paper is to survey and discuss in ation targeting in the context of monetary policy rules the paper provides a general conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of in ation targeting compares in ation targeting to other monetary policy rules and draws some conclusions for the monetary policy of the european system of central banks jel classi cation e42 e52

scale economies and cost complementarities in commercial banks on and off balance sheet activities abstract bank off balance sheet obs activities have grown dramatically and have become significantly important especially at large banks we investigate whether failure to incorporate obs products may lead to a misspecification problem models that exclude deposits from the output specification suggest economies of scale which vanish when deposits are included we find that inclusion of obs products has little effect on the scale economies measures with only a few exceptions the results provide no evidence of cost complementarities in joint production the tremendous growth of bank obs activities in the 1980s may be explained by the very small approximately zero pecuniary cost of these activities

estimation of technical inefficiency in manufacturing industry an extension of the method of estimation of technical ineficiency is presented based on the stochastic production frontier approach a derivation of the estimation procedure is given and the technique applied at the industry level the choice of production function is considered and empirical results pertaining to australia and the uk are presented

the measurement of vertical economies and the efficient structure of the electric utility industry in this article the concept of multiproduct cost economies is modified to the case of production at vertically related stages to derive an explicit and general measure of economies of vertical integration the utility of this measure is then demonstrated by estimating the vertical cost structure of the electric utility industry and by carrying out the calculations necessary to determine the magnitude of vertical economies in this industry the results provide empirical evidence of the existence of significant economies of vertical integration between the generation and transmission distribution stages of electricity supply copyright 1991 by blackwell publishing ltd

competition and allocative efficiency the case of the u s telephone industry this study investigates the effect of competition on the productive efficiency of the u s telephone industry taking into account the fact that the industry was subject to rate of return regulation it is shown that competition induces the incumbents to use capital inputs closer to the unconstrained optima thereby reducing the allocative inefficiency caused by the averch johnson effect this effect is in addition to the usual technical efficiency improvement induced by competition empirical results based on annual data for the u s telephone industry for the 1951 90 period suggested that competition improved the allocative efficiency of the incumbent firms which had been under a rate of return regulation until 1989 copyright 1995 by mit press

measuring enterprise efficiency in the soviet union a stochastic frontier analysis western economists of diverse persuasions broadly concur that in pursuit of full employment sustained growth and macroecdnomic stability the soviets have built an economic system that imposes sundry constraints on enterprise management and substitutes centralized resource allocation for the automatic market mechanism these expedients to the extent that they have prevented resources from being directed to their best use have imposed efficiency losses on the economy of unknown but perhaps significant dimensions numerous western scholars have inferred from this command economy paradigm as well as from international productivity comparisons that these efficiency losses are large however the proper attribution of these efficiency losses to microlevel sources i e inefficient enterprise operation and to higher level sources i e resource misallocation among enterprises branches etc has been the subject of more speculation than evidence this is because until recently requisite micro level data on enterprise operations were unavailable in a form suitable for empirical analysis of enterprise efficiency this deficiency now has been partially remedied for one sub sector of the soviet economy the cotton refining industry estimates of technical efficiency reported in this study computed using stochastic frontier techniques with a sample of 151 cotton refining enterprises suggest that productive efficiency is high relative to the estimated frontier and exhibits little dispersion this finding in turn suggests that soviet planning administrative procedures and managerial incentive systems may be reasonably effective in controlling overt technical inefficiency by inducing cotton refining enterprises to operate close to the standards established by the most technically efficient enterprises in the industry although these domestic best practice standards may be absolutely high or absolutely low by international standards and may not fully reflect engineering potential our finding of high modal efficiency relative to these standards together with little dispersion does constitute an important piece of evidence bearing on the sources of efficiency loss in the soviet economy this finding suggests that inter enterprise efficiency variation may not be a promising place to look for sources of efficiency loss

product line deregulation and the cost structure of us savings and loan associations recent legislative actions restrict thrift powers which were broadened by deregulatory actions in the early 1980s using nationwide data for savings and loans s ls evidence is found that these restrictions may rise intermediation costs for s ls by limiting their ability to exploit economies of scope between mortgage related and other outputs in addition economies of scale for a wide size range of s ls are found evidence is also found to suggest that insolvent s ls have higher costs for the same level of outputs than solvent s ls

testing for subadditivity of vertically integrated electric utilities the public policy debate over electric utility deregulation has a long history and generated a considerable amount of research much of this research focused on estimating the degree of scale economies in generation with little attention given to the effect vertical integration may have on cost structure the vertical integration issue is important because most observers consider the transmission and distribution stages to be natural monopolies according to joskow and schmalensee economics of integration if any would link the production stages together possibly extending natural monopoly conditions from transmission distribution to generation even if the latter exhibited no economies of scale 27 refs 5 tabs

production organization and efficiency during transition an empirical analysis of east german agriculture enterprise restructuring is expected to improve efficiency in transition economies with data from former east germany we compare the efficiency of family farms and partnerships with large scale successor organizations of the collective and state farms lsos using parametric and nonparametric techniques we show that lsos display lower technical efficiency than do family farms and partnerships but that this difference is small and declining during transition mainly as a result of structural changes in agriculture family farms are not as scale efficient as partnerships and lsos and partnerships are superior to all other organizational forms

productivity growth in canadian telecommunications canadian telecommunications firms do not price proportionately to marginal cost the prices of toll services tend to be above marginal costs whereas the prices of basic local services are typically set below marginal costs by regulators in such circumstances estimates of tfp growth using the conventional tornqvist divisia formula which weights outputs by revenue shares in determining the rate of growth of aggregate output is theoretically incorrect and needs to be replaced by a formula which uses cost elasticity weights empirically the conventional tornqvist index yields a very distorted picture of efficiency gains in the two largest canadian telephone companies during the 1980s for bell canada i calculate the upward bias to be approximately 75 percent over the period 1980 89 and 80 percent over the period 1985 89 for b c tel a similar calculation yields an upward bias of 37 percent over the period 1980 89 and 48 percent over the period 1985 89

a review of monetary policy rules this article reviews monetary policy rules edited by john taylor the book evaluates the taylor rule a policy rule that specifies changes in the central bank s interest rate according to what is happening to two variables real output and inflation questions are raised about a how well the models fit the data b the validity of the assumption that there has been clear improvement in monetary policy and c the rule s microfoundations

testing efficiency hypotheses in joint production a parametric approach n recent years a great deal of research has been directed to the modelling and measurement of technical and allocative efficiency in production with few exceptions this research has been restricted to single product firms however recent developments in duality theory have facilitated the extension of this research to multi product firms the main purpose of this paper is to develop a model of the multiproduct firm in which the possibilities of both technical and allocative inefficiency are incorporated in an econometrically useful way the first model we develop includes a nonneutral2 type of technical inefficiency and three distinguishable types of allocative inefficiency output mix input mix and scale each type of inefficiency is costly to the firm in the sense that each causes a reduction in profit beneath the maximum value attainable under full efficiency the cost of each type of inefficiency depends on the magnitude of the inefficiency and the structure of the underlying production technology in the second model we develop technical inefficiency remains nonneutral but allocative inefficiency is not generally decomposable into output mix input mix and scale components however both technical and allocative inefficiency remain costly to the firm the cost of each type of inefficiency depending on its magnitude and the structure of the underlying production technology we model the technology of a competitive profit maximizing multi product firm with the dual profit function this enables us to use hotelling s lemma to generate a system of profit maximizing output supply and input demand equations these equations are then modified to allow for the possibility of technical and three types of allocative inefficiency a virtue of using the profit function to represent production technology is that it permits a straightforward comparison of maximum profit under full efficiency with actual profit and with the profit that would result from any combination of the four types of inefficiency this enables us to allocate the cost of inefficiency to each of four components our model of inefficiency is parametric and is embedded in a generalized leontief profit function although any flexible specification of the profit function can be used the model is developed in sections ii iv estimation of the model is considered in section v an empirical example designed to illustrate the workings of the model is discussed in section vi section vii concludes

incremental reform and distortions in china s product and factor markets the purpose of economic reform is to reduce distortions and enhance efficiency however when reforms are partial and incremental individuals and local governments are often able to capture the rent inherent in the gradual transition process young 2000 warned that such rent seeking behavior might lead to increasing market fragmentation empirical studies have shown the opposite in the product market this article argues that as the rent from china s product market has been squeezed out due to deepening reforms rent seeking behavior may have shifted to the capital market further reforms are needed in the capital market to squeeze out these rent seeking opportunities just as those from the product and labor markets were squeezed out earlier

estimating distortions in the chinese economy a general equilibrium approach a computable general equilibrium model is constructed to simulate the chinese economy under a system of free markets and is estimated using a calibration procedure coupled with econometric estimation for key parameters the equilibrium solution of the model indicates substantial distortions in prices and resource allocation in the 1983 chinese economy labour was found to be overpaid and capital underpaid in most non agricultural sectors two fifths of the agricultural labour force would have been employed by the non agricultural sectors had china been a market economy the elimination of these distortions would imply a significant improvement in allocative efficiency and a redistribution of income from labour to capital from households to the state and from urban to rural households china embarked upon its economic reform programme in the late 1970s over the period 1979 83 there were dramatic reforms in the rural agricultural sector including the dismantling of the three level ownership of communes the dis tribution of land to peasant households and the relaxation of controls over labour transfer from the agricultural sector to the rural non agricultural sector in contrast in the urban economy and especially in the state industrial sector reforms were confined to modest improvements in incentives for enterprises and workers notably through the introduction of profit retention schemes and bonus systems in 1983 much of the traditional mechanism of resource alloca tion remained essentially intact the problem of distortions in the price system and in resource allocation in centrally planned economies cpes has long been a concern of economists and there has been a considerable interest in empirical modelling of distortions in cpes thornton 1971 estimated potential efficiency gains from equalizing the return to capital for different branches of soviet industry in the early 1960s desai and martin 1983 provided similar estimates using econometrically esti mated production functions portes and winter 1980 estimated excess demand in the aggregated consumption goods market for a number of pre reform eastern european economies using the technique of econometric dis equilibrium modelling podkamine 1988 calculated free market demands and prices in the absence of rationing for consumption goods markets in poland during 1965 86 by transplanting demand systems estimated for market econ omies into the quantity constrained polish economy chow 1985 investigated the efficiency of labour allocation in chinese state industry by comparing the average wage rate with the value of the marginal product of labour all these studies however involve partial equilibrium analysis in the sense that they are concerned only with examining the distortion in a specific market and therefore have tended to ignore distortions in the rest of the economy and a

productivity growth in pre 1990 mongolian agriculture spiralling disaster or emerging success the reasons for the spectacular collapse of so many centrally planned economies are a source of ongoing debate in this paper we use detailed farm level data to measure total factor productivity tfp changes in mongolian grain and potato farming during the 14 year period immediately preceding the 1990 economic reforms we measure tfp growth using stochastic frontier analysis sfa and data envelopment analysis dea methods our results indicate quite poor overall performance with an average annual tfp change of 1 7 in grain and 0 8 in potatoes over the 14 year period however the pattern of tfp growth changed substantially during this period with tfp growth exceeding 7 per year in the latter half of this period this suggests that the new policies of improved education greater management autonomy and improved incentives which were introduced in final two planning periods in the 1980s were beginning to have a significant influence upon the performance of mongolian crop farming crown copyright c 2002 published by elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the performance of private and cooperative socialist organization postwar yugoslav agriculture socialist enterprises in yugoslav agriculture show higher levels of productivity than private producers the author examines the sources of these differences with total factor productivity estimates based on sectoral aggregate cobb douglas production functions which permit separation of environmental policy and organizational effects the results support the following conclusions cooperative socialist enterprises are not inherently inefficient and can even outperform private producers both types of producers were responding to their environment and their differential rates of technological change reflect the different constraints they faced and socialist enterprises exhibited technology adoption behavior similar to nonsocialist enterprises elsewhere copyright 1987 by mit press

effort technology and the efficiency of agricultural cooperatives abstract the inefficiency of cooperative agriculture relative to private farms is often attributed to difficulties in monitoring or poor incentives we develop a model to show that in technologies with numerous sequential steps even small shortfalls in worker effort can result in large output declines using data on cooperative and private farms in el salvador we find greater shortfalls in efficiency between cooperatives and private farms as well as among cooperatives for coffee a crop requiring numerous steps in its cultivation than for maize and sugar which require fewer steps thus the undersupply of effort in cooperatives may be less than differences in productivity suggest and cooperative agriculture is most likely to be successful where production does not involve many sequential steps

is private farming more efficient than socialized agriculture this paper examines the technical efficiency of state and private farms in poland for the period 1960 74 we find that the average technical efficiency of the two types of farms does not differ although the dispersion of efficiency levels is greater among state farms than among private ones we do find clear evidence of allocative inefficiency with state farms oversupplied with fertilizer and machinery

unnatural monopolies in local telephone we attempt to overcome the serious data problems of past telecommunications cost studies by focusing on local exchange carriers lecs with enough degrees offreedom to yield precise estimates our global subadditivity tests show that the cost function is definitely not subadditive the results suggest that the benefits to breaking up the monopoly outputs of existing lecs substantially outweigh the potential losses in efficiency they also support permitting entry and increasing competition in local exchange markets furthermore given the competitive nature of long distance service it is doubtful that the predivestiture bell system was a natural monopoly

technical and scale efficiency of crop and livestock farms in poland does specialization matter l efficacite technique et d echelle des exploitations agricoles polonaises est calculee par la methode data envelopment analysis l etude porte sur les differences selon l orientation productive en grandes cultures ou elevage a deux dates de la transition en 1996 et en 2000 l article examine de plus la variabilite statistique des resultats d efficacite ceux ci sont revus a la lumiere des intervalles de confiance construits gr ce au bootstrapping en moyenne les exploitations d elevage ont une efficacite technique et d echelle superieure aux exploitations de grandes cultures l efficacite d echelle est toutefois tres elevee pour les deux orientations l inefficacite technique semble donc due principalement a une inefficacite technique pure c est a dire a une gestion inefficace la faible education des agriculteurs en est une raison majeure en 2000 64 des exploitations d elevage et 86 des exploitations de grandes cultures presentaient des retours d echelle croissants ce resultat suggere des recommandations politiques afin de supprimer les incitations a garder une structure operationnelle fragmentee et de stimuler le marche de la terre il s agit en particulier d ameliorer la legislation concernant la location des terres et de modifier le systeme de retraite agricole

on the choice offunctional forms in agricultural production analysis empirical results obtained by an analyst may depend on prior choice of functional form three alternative parametric specifications of the cost function are considered these are generalized leontief translog and normalized quadratic functions performance of these functional forms is evaluated by allen elasticities of substitution biases in technical change and some theory based hypotheses all three parametric specifications yielded mixed results together empirical results reinforce the need for model specification searches

the taylor rule and optimal monetary policy where it denotes the fed s operating target for the federal funds rate pt is the inflation rate measured by the gdp deflator yt is the log of real gdp and y t is the log of potential output identified empirically with a linear trend the rule has since been subject to considerable attention both as an account of actual policy in the united states and elsewhere and as a prescription for desirable policy taylor argues for the rule s normative significance both on the basis of simulations and on the ground that it describes u s policy in a period in which monetary policy is widely judged to have been unusually successful taylor 1999 suggesting that the rule is worth adopting as a principle of behavior here i wish to consider to what extent this prescription resembles the sort of policy that economic theory would recommend i consider the question in the context of a simple but widely used optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism which allows one to reach clear conclusions about economic welfare the model is highly stylized but incorporates important features of more realistic models and allows me to make several points that are of more general validity out of concern for the robustness of the conclusions reached the analysis here addresses only broad qualitative features of the taylor rule and attempts to identify features of a desirable policy rule that are likely to hold under a variety of model specifications

total factor productivity growth technological progress and technical efficiency change dimensions of productivity change in yugoslavia 1965 1978 this article total factor productivity growth technological progress and technical efficiency change dimensions of productivity change in yugoslavia 1965 78 was reprinted with permission from the december 1982 issue of the economic journal this article proposes a methodology that decomposes total factor productivity change into two distinct elements technological progress and changes in technical efficiency technological progress is defined as the change in the best practice production frontier all other productivity change is attributed to technical efficiency change the article provides a theoretical framework for decomposing total factor productivity growth as well as a specification and estimation of the deterministic frontier production function it employs a programming technique to estimate a flexible functional form of the production frontier the paper then applies this technique to empirical data from yugoslavia of the period from 1965 to 1978 it concludes that for yugoslavia improvements to technical efficiency comprise the dominant contribution to total factor productivity change this agrees with accumulating evidence that in many developing economies productivity gain due to technological mastery of imported technology is substantial

economic optimization and technical efficiency in soviet enterprises jointly regulated by plans and incentives abstract it is shown under a very general set of conditions that soviet multi product enterprises should be technically efficient in the sense that factors are fully employed and put to best internal use soviet firms may also be economically efficient to the extent that supplies respond to selected purchaser s demand these attributes suggest that the economic efficiency potential of soviet firms is higher than many institutional theorists intimate but at the same time falls very short of the paretian ideal

efficiency loss from resource misallocation in soviet industry the paper analyzes the problems that arise in estimating the efficiency loss from misallocation of resources in soviet industry as revealed by the inequality of marginal rates of substitution among factors in the eight branches of soviet industry econometric estimates of production functions in these branches are utilized to reach estimates of the loss arising from interbranch misallocation of capital and labor deployed in soviet industry this loss appears to be nonnegligible ranging from a low of about 3 to 4 percent to a high of 10 percent of efficient factor use and to be rising over time thus an added reason for the current deceleration in soviet industrial and overall growth is suggested

insurance policies for monetary policy in the euro area in this paper we aim to design a monetary policy for the euro area that is robust to the high degree of model uncertainty at the start of monetary union and allows for learning about model probabilities using the data that has become available since then to this end we compare and ultimately combine bayesian and worst case analysis using four reference models developed at the ecb and estimated with pre emu synthetic data we start by computing the cost of insurance against model uncertainty that is the relative performance of worst case or minimax policy versus bayesian policy we find that maximum insurance across this range of models can be obtained at moderate costs costs are measured in terms of lower expected performance relative to a bayesian policy with flat priors further scrutiny however highlights three shortcomings of this worst case insurance policy i prior beliefs that would rationalize the minimax policy from a bayesian perspective indicate that such insurance is strongly oriented towards the model with highest baseline losses ii the minimax policy is not as tolerant towards small perturbations of policy parameters as the bayesian policy and iii the minimax policy offers no avenue for incorporating posterior model probabilities derived from data available since monetary union thus we propose preferences for robust policy design that reflect a mixture of the bayesian and minimax approaches these preferences referred to as intermediate ambiguity aversion incorporate model probabilities while still giving extra weight to the worst uncertain outcomes we show how the incoming emu data may then be used to update model probabilities and investigate the implications for policy design

fdi trade and spillover efficiency evidence from china s manufacturing sector using firm data from the 1995 third industrial census of china this paper finds that the presence of foreign ownership has a positive and significant effect on domestic firms productivity moreover trading with more advanced countries helps china gain access to new technology and information which improves its productivity and enables it to compete in international markets it is found that china s imports from oecd and the four asian tigers and exports to oecd have positive effects on domestic firms productivity by dividing industries into high technology gap and low technology gap groups it is found that the spillover effects of fdi are larger for the low technology gap group than for the high technology gap group however the estimation results of the trade induced technology spillover effect support the technology gap learning theory and the significance of importing appropriate technology

rejoinder natural monopoly and the bell system response to charnes cooper and sueyoshi our study of the bell system cost function shows that it is possible to reject the hypothesis that at t was a natural monopoly our study is based on a regression analysis of a translog cost function estimated on 1947 1977 data charnes cooper and sueyoshi charnes a w w cooper t sueyoshi 1988 a goal programming constrained regression review of the bell system breakup management sci 34 1 26 claim that they reverse our conclusion when they use goal programming estimators of a translog cost function estimated on exactly the same data that we use this claim is false there is no basis for comparing our estimates with their estimates because they in fact use different data than we use and estimate a different cost function than we estimate moreover when goal programming estimates and regression estimates based on the same data and similar cost function specifications are compared they yield similar estimates and produce the same inference about natural monopoly

the robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the european central bank abstract this paper examines the implications of recent research on monetary policy rules for practical monetary policy making with special emphasis on strategies for setting interest rates by the european central bank ecb the paper draws on recent research and new simulations of a large open economy model to assess the efficiency of a simple benchmark rule in comparison with other proposed rules further it stresses new results on the robustness of monetary policy rules in which each rule that is optimal or good according to one model or researcher is tested for robustness by other researchers using different models because of the large increase in the number of economists focussing on econometric evaluation of monetary policy rules for the interest rate instrument and because of the parallel increase in the variety of models being developed for this purpose much more evidence is becoming available on the robustness of simple monetary policy rules for the interest rate than ever before

economic efficiency in polish peasant farming an international perspective one decade following the market transition in poland the agricultural sector still exhibits low productivity policy makers often describe the sector as fragmented and inefficient to understand why small scale farming in poland is inefficient despite longstanding secure property rights a survey of economic efficiency in southern agriculture was conducted and compared with limited studies of efficiency in poland the most important issues particularly related to farm size and efficiency are price risk uncertainty and low rural development comparative studies across regions with varying institutional arrangements and economic organization are powerful but must be made carefully and critically

success and failure of reform insights from the transition of agriculture this paper analyzes the linkages between the reform strategies in transition countries and economic performance the authors focus on agriculture because of the sharpness of the policy changes fundamental differences among countries and relative simplicity of agricultural relationships the authors document post reform performance in the transition countries of asia and europe the authors show how a pricing reform and subsidy reductions b land rights reform and policies that affect farm restructuring and c the presence institutions that facilitate exchange either markets or market substitutes affect output and productivity the paper ends with general lessons on reforms and transition

scale factor intensity and efficiency an empirical study of the chinese coal industry this paper deals with the interrelationship among firm scale factor intensity and efficiency using the chinese industrial survey data in 1985 and stochastic frontier models according to empirical

ruble convertibility demand responsive exchange rates in a goal directed economy abstract this essay shows how the ruble can be made partially convertible without radically changing the soviet economic system it demonstrates that the necessary and sufficient conditions for trade enhancing convertibility merely require that incentive maximizing enterprises be permitted to engage in import and export activities and be authorized to participate in foreign currency auctions organized by the state additional conditions required for a significant improvement in foreign trade efficiency are then examined and it is shown that although numerous micro and macroeconomic disequilibria do pose difficulties partial ruble convertibility could improve east west trade efficiency if properly designed and implemented

productive performance in west german manufacturing industry 1970 80 a farrell frontier characterisation some measure of the success with which economic resources are utilised lies at the heart of any meaningful indicator of economic performance a traditional and obvious point of departure is to say that for a given state of technical knowledge and initial endowments of factor inputs resource allocation depends on the degree of ability to transform inputs into outputs and the relative returns which these resources can earn in this paper the more recent productive performance of the west german manufacturing sector is appraised from one particular viewpoint whilst remaining firmly within what might be called the conventional framework of relating outputs to the factor inputs labour and capital section ii provides an initial brief overview of the west german manufacturing sector over the period i 970 80 in which some of the more interesting trends are noted for a more detailed analysis in later sections section iii sets out the approach used again this is not very extensive given the relatively well documented nature of the methodology section iv takes the form of some notes on the data used with a more substantial section v containing the major analysis some more general observations and concluding comments are brought together in a final section vi

measuring market distortion international comparisons policy and competitiveness this paper develops a framework to simultaneously estimate production possibility frontiers and measure distortions in factor and product markets the econometric results based on a panel of 61 countries over the period 1970 through 1985 reveal very little distortion in factor markets but considerable distortion in product markets in addition the distortions tend to vary with the cyclical behaviour of economic activity further the results suggest that in order to improve efficiency commercial policy should aim at reducing product market distortions rather than factor market ones

positive prices in capm some equilibrium prices in capm may be negative because of nonmonotonicity of preferences we identify several sets of sufficient conditions for prices to be positive the central conditions impose bounds on the investors risk aversion these bounds do not need to hold globally but only in a relevant range of portfolios or combinations of mean and standard deviation the relevant range is specified on the basis of exogenous parameters and variables and it must contain any endogenously determined equilibrium the bounds on risk aversion ensure that the preferences for assets are sufficiently well behaved within the relevant range the two period mean variance capital asset pricing model capm has the peculiar property that preferences may not be monotone the expected return to an investor s portfolio increases as he holds more and more shares of the assets but so does the variance of return it may be that at some point the additional expected return gained from adding more shares to the portfolio is not sufficient to compensate for the increase in variance if so then the induced preferences for assets are not monotone nonmonotonicity of preferences in the mean variance model is analyzed in nielsen 1987 because portfolio preferences are not necessarily monotone equilibrium asset prices may be negative or zero in fact it is possible that the value of the market portfolio of risky assets is negative this is demonstrated in nielsen 1985 1990a and in two examples in the present paper when the capm is used as a model of the prices of stocks which in reality have limited liability it is of course disturbing that it may predict negative prices it can be seen as a symptom of the fact that mean variance preferences are not always a good approximation to reality this paper analyzes various conditions on the exogenous parameters which ensure that the preferences are sufficiently realistic to yield positive prices the exogenous parameters in question are the expectations variances and covariances of total returns the initial allocations of the assets endowments and the investors utility functions for mean and variance of return the analysis applies to the classical version of the capm with a riskless asset as developed by sharpe 1964 lintner 1965 and mossin 1966 as well as the capm with risky assets only which was introduced by black 1972 and has been much used in empirical work under the name the zero beta or two factor capm

the variation of productivity within british and german industries unweighted average labor productivities indicate an even larger german advantage over britain than the usual employment weighted averages the difference between these two averages is used to compare the dispersion of productivity within fifteen matched industries with positive correlations between productivity and size in eight of them the dispersion of productivity in britain appears to be higher which is consistent with a long tail of low productivity businesses vulnerable to the single european market british vulnerability in the remaining seven industries is even greater copyright 1992 by blackwell publishing ltd

a goal programming constrained regression review of the bell system breakup the recently implemented court decision to break up bell american telephone telegraph co to accord with u s anti trust laws represents a highly significant policy decision which is proving to be influential in other countries as well as the u s the telecommunication industry is of such size and importance that even relatively small economies that might be lost with bell s breakup as a natural monopoly could involve substantial welfare losses to consumers and producers studies commissioned by the u s justice department that approached this topic by econometric methods reported that the evidence failed to support the contention that bell was a natural monopoly here a goal programming constrained regression as developed in the management science literature uses the same functional form and the same data but nevertheless reverses the main findings of the econometric studies in every one of the 20 years covered this kind of difference in results obtained by two different methods of analysis poi

labour and capital saving technical change in telecommunications the australian telecommunications sector is being improved and extended through substantial recent investment in intelligent technology such as digital switching fibre optics satellite and cellular transmission and the internet these technologies are being progressively integrated with technology from the broadcasting computer and electronics industries providing a unified information infrastructure for information transmission and processing technological progress embodied in new equipment has the effect of increasing the efficiency of the factors of production such efficiency increases can be biased towards a particular factor for instance the impact of labour augmenting technical change is a decline in the cost of labour per unit of production when such biases are apparent the relativity between the costs of labour and capital per unit of production is changed in the longer term technical change can impact on the rate of employment growth and also on the rate of capital accumulation in th

can neoclassical economics underpin the reform of centrally planned economies te here s a curious symmetry between the arguments propounded over the last century in advocacy of socialism and the present popular discussion of the reform of centrally planned economies in those old discussions the vision of socialism was utopian which was contrasted with the dickensian realities of capitalism now the disasters of central planning are contrasted with the benefits flowing from perfectly functioning markets in the conventional wisdom of reform the vision of markets is utopian and that of central planning concentrates on the awful reality what is largely missing in the conventional wisdom is a satisfactory attempt to come to grips with the central question that should be answered in formulating reform plans how does one explain the differences in performance of market capitalist and centrally planned economies of course capitalism has outperformed central planning the developed west is therefore an obvious source of ideas for reforms but the institutions of capitalism come in many varieties and cannot be put in place instantaneously there are many alternative reform paths depending upon the importance attributed to each of these institutions thus there remains the problem of tracing the source of the superiority of capitalist economies to specific characteristics this point was made clear to me on hearing a vietnamese official justify single party rule by noting the economic success of taiwan and singapore reformers need a filter that interprets the experience of capitalist and socialist systems this is exactly where economic theory plays a vital role

what is wrong with taylor rules using judgment in monetary policy through targeting rules it is argued that inflation targeting is best understood as a commitment to a targeting rule rather than an instrument rule e ither ageneral targeting rule explicit objectives for monetary policy or a specific targeting rule a criterion for the forecasts of the target variables to be fulfilled essentially the equality of the marginal rates of transformation and substitution between the target variables targeting rules allow the use of judgment and extramodel information are more robust and easier to verify than optimal instrument rules and they can nevertheless bring the economy close to the socially optimal equilibrium

the measurement and sources of technical inefficiency in the indonesian weaving industry production function models are estimated with a time series of cross section data on indonesian weaving establishments the sources of technical inefficiency are investigated three firm attributes are identified as being potentially related to firm efhciency tbey are firm ownership age and size the importance of these attributes as sources of inefficiency in the indonesian weaving industry is investigated and the implications of the find ings discussed

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

the bell system divestiture deregulation and the efficiency of the operating companies abstract a variety of casual evidence has been offered in measurement of the efficiencies and inefficiencies thought to flow from the bell system divestiture and accompanying state regulatory reforms to address several questions in this regard we estimate a regulated cost function for local exchange services using panel data on the divested bell operating companies bocs divestiture and regulatory reform are found to have produced significant efficiencies as of 1993 saving about 20 percent in cost relative to what would have obtained in the absence of these events more specifically to 1993 the divestiture yielded savings of 115 4 billion and state level regulatory reform yielded a slightly smaller 96 7 billion in savings both measured in 1993 dollars output augmentation factor bias and allowed rate of return effects contribute in identified ways to these overall results

should inflation targeting central banks respond to exchange rate movements abstract this paper examines whether it is optimal for inflation targeting central banks to respond to exchange rate movements the paper finds that exchange rate movements can provide a signal on the developments in the economy that the central bank cannot perfectly observe the results suggest that when the degrees of exchange rate pass through and international financial integration are high it is optimal for the central bank to pay more attentions to exchange rate movements these results however depend on two conditions 1 the ability of the central bank to observe the true exchange rate process and 2 the number of real frictions in the model economy