censored latent effects autoregression with an application to us unemployment a new time series model is proposed to describe observed asymmetries in postwar unemployment data we assume that recession periods when unemployment increases rapidly are caused by unobserved positive shocks the generating mechanism of these latent shocks is a censored regression model where linear combinations of lagged explanatory variables lead to positive shocks while otherwise shocks are equal to zero we apply our censored latent effects autoregression clear to monthly us unemployment where the positive shocks are found to depend on lagged oil prices industrial production the term structure of interest rates and a stock market index the model fits the data well and its out of sample forecasts appear to outperform those from alternative models

the opportunistic approach to monetary policy and financial market conditions we test the concept of the opportunistic approach to monetary policy in south africa post 2000 inflation targeting regime the article contributes to the current debate on central banks having additional objectives over and above inflation and output by incorporating a measure of financial conditions in the modelling framework our findings support the two features of the opportunistic approach first we find that the models that include an intermediate target that reflects the recent history of inflation rather than simple inflation target improve the fit of the models second the data supports the view that the south african reserve bank sarb behaves with some degree of nonresponsiveness when inflation is within the zone of discretion but react aggressively otherwise recursive estimates from our preferred model reveal that overall there has been a subdued reaction to inflation output and financial conditions amidst the increased economic uncertainty of the 2007 2009 financial crisis

utility covariances and context effects in conjoint mnp models experimental conjoint choice analysis is among the most frequently used methods for measuring and analyzing consumer preferences the data from such experiments have been typically analyzed with the multinomial logit mnl model however there are several problems associated with the standard mnl model because it is based on the assumption that the error terms of the underlying random utilities are independent across alternatives choice sets and subjects the multinomial probit model mnp is well known to alleviate this assumption of independence of the error terms accounting for covariances in utilities in modeling choice experiments with the mnp is important because variation of the coefficients in the choice model may occur due to context effects previous research has shown that subjects utilities for alternatives depend on the choice context that is the particular set of alternatives evaluated simonson and tversky s tradeoff contrast principle describes the effect of the choice context on attribute importance and patterns of choice they distinguish local contrast effects which are caused by the alternatives in the offered set only and background contrast effects which are due to the influence of alternatives previously considered in choice experiments these effects are hypothesized to cause correlations in the utilities of alternatives within and across choice sets respectively the purpose of this study is to develop an mnp model for conjoint choice experiments this model is important for a more detailed study of choice patterns in those experiments in developing the mnp model for conjoint choice experiments several hurdles need to be taken related to the identification of the model and to the prediction of holdout profiles to overcome those problems we propose a random coefficients rc model that assumes a multivariate normal distribution of the regression coefficients with a rank one factor structure on the covariance matrix of these regression coefficients the parameters in this covariance matrix can be used to identify which attributes and levels of attributes are potentional sources of dependencies between the alternatives and choice sets in a conjoint choice experiment we present several versions of this model moreover for each of these models we allow utilities to be either correlated or independent across choice sets the independent probit ip model is used as a benchmark given the dimensionality of the integrations involved in computing the choice probabilities the models are estimated with simulated likelihood where simulations are used to approximate the integrals involved in the choice probabilities we apply and compare the models in two conjoint choice experiments in both applications the random coefficients mnp model that allows choices in different choice sets to be correlated rc displays superior fit and predictive validity compared with all other models we hypothesize that the difference in fit occurs because the rc model accommodates correlations among choice sets that are caused by background contrast effects whereas the model that treats choice sets as independent irc accounts for local contrast effects only the irc model shows superior model fit compared with the ip model but its predictions are worse than those of the ip model we find differences in the importance of local and background contrast effects for choice sets containing different numbers of alternatives the background contrast effect may be stronger for smaller choice sets whereas the local contrast effect may be stronger for bigger choice sets we illustrate the differences in simulated market shares that are obtained from the rc irc and ip models in three hypothetical situations product modification product line extension and the introduction of a me too brand in all of those situations substantially different market shares are predicted by the three models which illustrates the extent to which erroneous predictions may be obtained from the misspecified irc and ip models

the political economy of corporate control and labor rents in a democracy a political majority can influence both the corporate governance structure and the return to human and financial capital we argue that when financial wealth is sufficiently concentrated there is political support for high labor rents and a strong governance role for banks or large investors the model is consistent with the great reversal phenomenon in the first half of the twentieth century we offer evidence that in several financially developed countries a financially weakened middle class became concerned about labor income risk associated with free markets and supported a more corporatist financial system

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

economic activity and recession probabilities information content and predictive power of the term spread in italy the aim of the present article is to examine the information content of the italian term spread as for real economic growth rates and recession probabilities and to test its predictive power in forecasting regime probabilities to this end the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear one and specifically the logistic smooth transition model is used while a probit model is implemented to forecast recession probabilities specific to this article is the use of the oecd business cycle chronology which was never used before to this end for the italian case overall evidence supports the informative content of the spread in italy over the whole period 1984 2005 although results are more satisfactory as from 1992 in particular recession forecasts are generally better than those obtained with other chronologies previously adopted for the italian case isae and ecri

predicting recessions with interest rate spreads a multicountry regime switching analysis abstract this study uses markov switching models to evaluate the informational content of the term structure as a predictor of recessions in eight oecd countries the empirical results suggest that for all countries the term spread is sensibly modelled as a two state regime switching process moreover a simple univariate model turns out to be a filter that transforms accurately term spread changes into turning point predictions the term structure is confirmed to be a reliable recession indicator however the results of probit estimations show that on average the markov switching filter does not improve the forecasting ability of the spread

using extremeness aversion to fight obesity policy implications of context dependent demand this article illustrates how the compromise effect alters consumers selection of soft drinks using three within subject studies we show that extremeness aversion and price insensitivity cause consumers to increase their consumption when the smallest drink size is dropped or when a larger drink size is added to a set as a result rational firms find it best to drop the smaller sizes and add a larger size thus increasing overall consumption after estimating each individual s demand as a function of price and drink size availability policy experiments demonstrate how it is possible to reduce soft drink consumption without additional taxation

political intervention in debt contracts this paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model of an agricultural economy in which poor farmers borrow from rich farmers because output is stochastic we allow for idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks there may be default ex post we compare equilibria with and without political intervention intervention takes the form of a moratorium and is decided by voting when bad economic shocks are highly likely state contingent debt moratoria always improve ex post efficiency and may also improve ex ante efficiency moreover the threat of moratoria enhances efficiency when adverse macro shocks are unlikely state contingent moratoria always improve ex ante welfare by completing incomplete debt contracts

the limits of attraction consumer research has documented dozens of instances in which the introduction of an irrelevant third option affects preferences between the remaining two in nearly all such cases the unattractive dominated option enhances the attractiveness of the option it most resembles a phenomenon known as the attraction effect in the studies presented here however the authors contend that this phenomenon may be restricted to stylized product representations in which every product dimension is represented by a number e g a toaster oven that has a durability rating of 7 2 and ease of cleaning rating of 5 5 such effects do not typically occur when consumers experience the product e g taste a drink or when even one of the product attributes is represented perceptually e g differently priced hotel rooms whose quality is depicted with a photo the authors posit that perceptual representations of attributes do not support the sorts of comparisons that drive the attraction effect with highly stylized e

a money demand system for euro area m3 in order to assess the importance of monetary and financial developments for key macroeconomic variables in the euro area a money demand system for m3 is estimated adopting a structural cointegrating var approach while maintaining a good statistical representation of the data long run relationships are based on economic theory by using generalized response profiles the dynamics of the money demand system is investigated without any further identifying assumptions error bounds of the profiles are derived using bootstrap simulations

overchoice and assortment type when and why variety backfires almost universally research and practice suggest that a brand that increases its product assortment or variety should benefit through increased market share in this paper we show this is not always the case we introduce the construct assortment type and demonstrate that the effect of assortment size on brand share is systematically moderated by assortment type we define an alignable assortment as a set of brand variants that differ along a single compensatory dimension such that choosing from that assortment only requires within attribute trade offs in contrast we define a nonalignable assortment as a set of brand variants that simultaneously vary along multiple noncompensatory dimensions demanding between attribute trade offs in turn we argue that an alignable assortment can efficiently meet the diverse tastes of consumers thereby increasing brand share but that a nonalignable assortment increases both the cognitive effort and the potential for regret faced by a consumer thereby decreasing brand share we term this effect overchoice across three studies we provide evidence of overchoice and tie the effect to the effort and regret brought about by nonalignability in the process we demonstrate that simplification of information presentation reversibility of choice and a reduction in underlying nonalignability serve to reduce or eliminate this effect

why does the yield curve predict output and inflation the slope of the yield curve has been shown empirically to be a significant predictor of inflation and real economic activity but there is no standard theory as to why the relationship exists this article constructs an analytical rational expectations model to investigate the reasons for the empirical results the model suggests that the relationships are not structural but are instead influenced by the monetary policy regime however the yield curve should have predictive power for output and inflation in most circumstances various implications of the theoretical model are tested and confirmed empirically

risk and macroeconomic activity this article explores the macroeconomic role that risk plays using the baa aaa spread as the measure of risk first it shows that meaningful upward movements in this spread are associated with recessions and their severity second it includes the baa aaa spread in a structural vector autoregression var to identify a shock to risk and finds that it causes a statistically significant and economically important decrease in output as well as increased holdings of real money balances third it uses historical decompositions to show that the shock to risk explains an important part of the declines in output during four post 1970 recessions notably the shock to risk explains almost none of the decline in output during 2001 prior to the september 11 2001 terrorist attacks but does clarify why the recovery was relatively weak afterwards and it explains the bulk of the decline in output during 2008 and 2009

the income environment relationship evidence from a binary response model abstract the empirical environmental kuznets curve ekc literature is vast but far from conclusive many authors have analysed the existence of an ekc for various pollutants others have used the ekc framework to identify country characteristics that help to explain the income environment relationship in this framework environmental degradation is analysed using a second or third order polynomial in income and a limited number of control variables some authors question whether this standard framework is appropriate this paper proposes an alternative to study the specific characteristics of countries that have experienced economic growth and an improving environment at the same time we estimate a binary response model and find an ekc like relation between the probability that a country s environment improves with economic growth and per capita gdp our evidence further suggests that the level of environmental damage is an important explanatory variable we also confirm the importance of an open political system these results indicate that the binary response model could be a valuable alternative to test which country specific characteristics are associated with a negative ier

debt relief and debtor outcomes measuring the effects of consumer bankruptcy protection consumer bankruptcy is one of the largest social insurance programs in the united states but little is known about its impact on debtors we use 500 000 bankruptcy filings matched to administrative tax and foreclosure data to estimate the impact of chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on subsequent outcomes exploiting the random assignment of bankruptcy filings to judges we find that chapter 13 protection increases annual earnings by 5 562 decreases five year mortality by 1 2 percentage points and decreases five year foreclosure rates by 19 1 percentage points these results come primarily from the deterioration of outcomes among dismissed filers not gains by granted filers jel d14 i12 j22 j31 k35

bankruptcy as implicit health insurance this paper examines the implicit health insurance that households receive from the ability to declare bankruptcy exploiting multiple sources of variation in asset exemption law i show that uninsured households with a greater financial cost of bankruptcy make higher out of pocket medical payments conditional on the amount of care received in turn i find that households with greater wealth at risk are more likely to hold health insurance the implicit insurance from bankruptcy distorts the insurance coverage decision using a microsimulation model i calculate that the optimal pigovian penalties are three quarters as large as the average penalties under the affordable care act

could ralph nader s entrance and exit have helped al gore the impact of decoy dynamics on consumer choice abstract people are frequently faced with making a new choice decision after a preferred option becomes unavailable prior research on the attraction effect has demonstrated how the introduction of an option into a choice set increases the share of one of the original options the authors examine the related but previously unaddressed issue of whether the unexpected exit of an option from a choice set returns the choice shares of the original options to the status quo in a series of experiments they observe that when an option turns out to be unselectable following a choice problem in which it was selectable the choice shares of the remaining options are predictably different from those of a choice problem in which the option was unselectable from the start they also observe that this attraction effect due to the disappearance of a decoy is likely a consequence of changes in the importance of decision criteria they conclude with a discussion of the theoretical and managerial implications of the research

personal bankruptcy and credit supply and demand this paper examines how personal bankruptcy and bankruptcy exemptions affect the supply and demand for credit while generous state level bankruptcy exemptions are probably viewed by most policy makers as benefiting less well off borrowers our results using data from the 1983 survey of consumer finances suggest that they increase the amount of credit held by high asset households and reduce the availability and amount of credit to low asset households conditioning on observable characteristics thus bankruptcy exemptions redistribute credit toward borrowers with high assets interest rates on automobile loans for low asset households also appear to be higher in high exemption states

consumer bankruptcy a fresh start consumer bankruptcy provides partial insurance against bad luck but by driving up interest rates makes life cycle smoothing more difficult we argue that to assess this trade off one needs a quantitative model of consumer bankruptcy with three key features life cycle component idiosyncratic earnings uncertainty and expense uncertainty exogenous negative shocks to household balance sheets we find that transitory and persistent earnings shocks have very different implications for evaluating bankruptcy rules more persistent shocks make the bankruptcy option more desirable larger transitory shocks have the opposite effect our findings suggest the current us bankruptcy system may be desirable for reasonable parameter values jel d14 d91 k35

imprecision as an account of the preference reversal phenomenon many individuals choices and valuations involve a degree of uncertainty imprecision this paper reports an experiment designed to obtain some measure of imprecision and to examine the extent to which it can explain preference reversals of two opposite forms one of which appears not to have been reported previously the model of imprecision we examine not only predicts both patterns but also provides an account of earlier results that are otherwise not well explained the results suggest that any successful descriptive theory of choice and valuation will need to allow in some way for the imprecision surrounding people s decisions

welfare implications of the bankruptcy reform act of 1999 abstract in recent years personal bankruptcy has become an important issue to consumers creditors and legislators alike over 40 billion dollars of unsecured debt were discharged in 1998 by 1 44 million households these losses have led legislators to propose a variety of changes in bankruptcy law the most important and recent of which is the bankruptcy reform act of 1999 ba99 i develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of personal bankruptcy to investigate the trade off between the consumption smoothing role of bankruptcy and the interest rate and deadweight costs it imposes i find that stringent means tests would reduce filing rates only slightly and would have only modest welfare consequences on the other hand the elimination of bankruptcy altogether is found to have substantial benefits this result is robust to income shock persistence and to stringency in the application of means tests

the relevance of irrelevant alternatives abstract in an experimental setting subjects face a standard elicitation task for certainty equivalents we show that when a third objectively irrelevant option is added to the standard task the willingness to take risks increases

the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in europe and the united states implications for the european central bank abstract this paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both europe and the united states the results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread but is unlikely to be the only determinant in addition there is significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation the yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which along with other information can be used to help guide european monetary policy

constructive consumer choice processes consumer decision making has been a focal interest in consumer research and consideration of current marketplace trends e g technological change an information explosion indicates that this topic will continue to be critically important we argue that consumer choice is inherently constructive due to limited processing capacity consumers often do not have well defined existing preferences but construct them using a variety of strategies contingent on task demands after describing constructive choice consumer decision tasks and decision strategies we provide an integrative framework for understanding constructive choice review evidence for constructive consumer choice in light of that framework and identify knowledge gaps that suggest opportunities for additional research

market boundaries and product choice illustrating attraction and substitution effects what happens to the share of choices each item receives when the choice set boundaries are extended by adding a new item that is extremely good on one dimension but poor on the others first there is a substitution effect whereby the new item takes choice share mainly from similar items in the set second there is an attraction effect resulting in a general shift of preference toward the added item experimental studies show that choice patterns conflict with current theoretical and common sense ideas about the effect of added alternatives on choice

predicting u s recessions financial variables as leading indicators this paper examines the out of sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of u s recessions series such as interest rates and spreads stock prices and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators the analysis focuses on out of sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead results show that stock prices are useful with one to three quarter horizons as are some well known macroeconomic indicators beyond one quarter however the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear individual choice and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables

credit wages and bankruptcy laws we analyze how bankruptcy laws affect the general equilibrium interactions between credit and wages soft laws reduce the frequency of liquidations and thus ex post inefficiencies but they worsen credit rationing ex ante this hinders firm creation and thus depresses labor demand rich agents who need few outside funds can invest even if creditor rights are weak hence they favor soft laws that exclude poorer agents from the credit market and reduce the competition for labor such laws can generate greater utilitarian welfare than under perfect contract enforcement by barring access to credit to some agents soft laws lower wages which increases the pledgeable income of richer agents and decreases the liquidation rates they must commit to when they induce strong credit rationing however soft laws are pareto dominated by tougher laws combined with subsidies to entrepreneurs

sources of regime switching in short term interest rates for canada the purpose of this study is to identify sources of regime switching in short term interest rates for canada the choice of information variables is based on three well known hypotheses about interest rates the expectations hypothesis the fisher relationship and the condition for uncovered interest parity the empirical framework consists of an autoregressive distributive lag adl model in error correction form with information spreads and a markov regime switching estimation methodology the models choose interest rate regimes that are similar in many respects to those found for the usa the different regimes in canada are driven by movements in the monetary policy rate the us short term rate and the long term yield the monetary policy rate is found to trigger very large changes in the short term rate responding one for one in the high variance regime and slightly less in the more normal interest rate regime both the us short rate and long term yield are also found to trigger relatively large

incentives and the de soto effect this paper explores the consequences of improving property rights to facilitate the use of fixed assets as collateral popularly attributed to the influential policy advocate hernando de soto we use an equilibrium model of a credit market with moral hazard to characterize the theoretical effects and also develop a quantitative analysis using data from sri lanka we show that the effects are likely to be nonlinear and heterogeneous by wealth group they also depend on the extent of competition between lenders there can be significant increases in profits and reductions in interest rates when credit markets are competitive however since these are due to reductions in moral hazard that is increased effort the welfare gains tend to be modest when cost of effort is taken into account allowing for an extensive margin where borrowers gain access to the credit market can make these effects larger depending on the underlying wealth distribution

bread and the attrition of power economic events and german election results aggregate votes for incumbent parties in post war germany were determined by the weighted average growth of real per capita disposable income each percentage point of per capita real disposable income growth sustained over the legislative term yielded approximately two percentage points of votes in germany no other economic variables add value or significantly perturb the coefficients of our model however attrition of power reduced the vote share in election years 1961 1994 and 1998

the attraction effect and its explanations abstract the attraction effect violates choice consistency one of the central assumptions of economics i present a risky choice experiment to test it and disentangle some of its explanations i find the attraction effect but in a smaller magnitude than previously thought i uncover a range effect that shows that people weight more attributes whose range increases i also show that the aggregate results hide considerable heterogeneity between subjects

taylor rules mccallum rules and the term structure of interest rates abstract recent empirical research shows that a reasonable characterization of federal funds rate targeting behavior is that the change in the target rate depends on the maturity structure of interest rates and exhibits little dependence on lagged target rates see for example cochrane and piazzesi 2002 the fed and interest rates a high frequency identification american economic review 92 90 95 the result echoes the policy rule used by mccallum 1994a monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates nber working paper no 4938 to rationalize the empirical failure of the expectations hypothesis applied to the term structure of interest rates that is rather than forward rates acting as unbiased predictors of future short rates the historical evidence suggests that the correlation between forward rates and future short rates is surprisingly low mccallum showed that a desire by the monetary authority to adjust short rates in response to exogenous shocks to the term premiums imbedded in long rates i e yield curve smoothing along with a desire for smoothing interest rates across time can generate term structures that account for the puzzling regression results of fama and bliss 1987 the information in long maturity forward rates the american economic review 77 680 392 mccallum also clearly pointed out that this reduced form approach to the policy rule although naturally forward looking needed to be studied further in the context of other response functions such as the now standard taylor 1993 discretion versus policy rules in practice carnegie rochester conference series on public policy 39 195 214 rule we explore both the robustness of mccallum s result to endogenous models of the term premium and also its connections to the taylor rule we model the term premium endogenously using two different models in the class of affine term structure models studied in duffie and kan 1996 a yield factor model of interest rates mathematical finance 57 405 443 a stochastic volatility model and a stochastic price of risk model we then solve for equilibrium term structures in environments in which interest rate targeting follows a rule such as the one suggested by mccallum i e the mccallum rule we demonstrate that mccallum s original result generalizes in a natural way to this broader class of models to understand the connection to the taylor rule we then consider two structural macroeconomic models which have reduced forms that correspond to the two affine models and provide a macroeconomic interpretation of abstract state variables as in ang and piazzessi 2003 a no arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables journal of monetary economics 50 745 787 moreover such structural models allow us to interpret the parameters of the term structure model in terms of the parameters governing preferences technologies and policy rules we show how a monetary policy rule will manifest itself in the equilibrium asset pricing kernel and hence the equilibrium term structure we then show how this policy can be implemented with an interest rate targeting rule this provides us with a set of restrictions under which the taylor and mccallum rules are equivalent in the sense if implementing the same monetary policy we conclude with some numerical examples that explore the quantitative link between these two models of monetary policy

adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis an asymmetrically dominated alternative is dominated by one item in the set but not by another adding such an alternative to a choice set can increase the probability of choosing the item that dominates it this result points to the inadequacy of many current choice models and suggests product line strategies that might not otherwise be intuitively plausible

the role of explanations and need for uniqueness in consumer decision making unconventional choices based on reasons this research investigates the interaction between a very common task explaining decisions and an individual difference need for uniqueness nfu on buyer decision making we propose that explaining or providing reasons for decisions shifts the focus from the choice of options to the choice of reasons furthermore buyers who explain their decisions and have high nfu tend to select unconventional reasons and are consequently more likely to make unconventional choices these predictions were supported in a series of studies involving choices between conventional and less conventional options such as whether to switch to a brand on sale whether to select a compromise option and whether to accept a gamble with a possible loss the findings also indicate that the effects of providing reasons are not due to attempts to act rationally or to concerns about being evaluated three boundary conditions on the generalization that high nfu consumers who provide reasons tend to make unconventional choices we

do market prices aggregate information about macroeconomic uncertainty or risk this article examines several economic variables that represent either confidence in future economic conditions or the degree of risk uncertainty about future conditions in order to determine which contain more information about future employment and output some of these variables are prices while others are from surveys causality tests historical decompositions within a var and out of sample forecasts are among the tools used this article concludes that monthly stock returns contain much more information about future economic conditions than the other variables the spread between moody s baa and aaa bonds the spread between the constant maturity 10 year government bond and the federal funds rate as well as uncertainty in future economic conditions as measured by the federal reserve bank of philadelphia s business outlook survey also provide information about future economic conditions notably this article finds that monthly stock returns contain more information about future economic conditions

macro factors and the term structure of interest rates this paper presents an essentially affine model of the term structure of interest rates making use of macroeconomic factors and their long run expectations the model extends the approach pioneered by kozicki and tinsley 2001 by modeling consistently long run inflation expectations simultaneously with the term structure application to the u s economy shows the importance of long run inflation expectations in the modeling of long term bond yields the paper also provides a macroeconomic interpretation for the latent factors found in standard finance models of the yield curve the level factor represents the long run inflation expectation of agents the slope factor captures business cycle conditions and the curvature factor expresses a clear independent monetary policy factor

european business cycles new indices and their synchronicity this article presents a new business cycle index that allows for cycle to cycle comparisons of the depth of recessions within a country cross country comparisons of business cycle correlation and simple aggregation to arrive at a measure of a european business cycle the data augmentation implied by gibbs sampling generates posterior distributions for a latent coincident business cycle index subsample correlations between an aggregated europe index and the national business cycle indices from france germany and italy are consistent with the claim that the european economies are becoming more harmonized

me myself and my choices the influence of private self awareness on choice abstract this article examines the impact of private self awareness on consumer decision making in four studies the authors show that the ease of preference formation accompanying private self awareness makes people more willing and able to rely on their personal preference weights as the authors predict privately self aware consumers are less inclined to opt for a varied choice set study 1 and are less likely to select compromise options studies 2 and 3 unless they find that it is too difficult to construct their personal preferences study 4

international yield curve comovements impact of the recent financial crisis empirical evidence on international yield comovement is sparse and lacks consensus employing a dynamic correlation approach we show that during the recent global financial crisis euro area yields have ceased to comove with the yields of the other international markets canada uk and us some implications of our results are discussed

tree structured multiple regimes in interest rates this article develops a generalized tree structured gts model of the short term interest rate that accommodates regime dependent mean reversion and regime dependent volatility clustering and level effects in the conditional variance the model is constructed using the idea of multivariate tree structured thresholds and nests the popular generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and square root processes as simple special cases it allows us to estimate the optimal number of regimes endogenously from the data and to exploit possible additional information in the term structure and in other macroeconomic variables we provide empirical evidence of the strong potential of the gts model in forecasting conditional first and second moments also in comparison with alternative models of the short rate

a multi country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation abstract empirical analysis of data from ten oecd countries indicates that except for france the united kingdom and germany the shorter maturity term structure does not contain a great deal of information about the future path of inflation on the other hand except for the united kingdom there is a great deal of information in the term structure of nominal interest rates at shorter maturities about the term structure of real interest rates these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes for the different countries

macroeconomic models and the yield curve an assessment of the fit abstract many have questioned the empirical relevance of the calvo yun model this paper adds a term structure to three widely studied macroeconomic models calvo yun hybrid and svensson we back out from observations on the yield curve the underlying macroeconomic model that most closely matches the level slope and curvature of the yield curve with each model we trace the response of the yield curve to macroeconomic shocks we assess the fit of each model against the observed behaviour of interest rates and find limited support for the calvo yun model in terms of fit with the observed yield curve we find some support for the hybrid model but the svensson model performs best

an empirical analysis of information in the yield spread on future recessions in japan this article examines whether the yield spread contains information on the likelihood of future economic recessions using a probit model by taking the stability of the relationship between the yield spread and future recessions into account we also compare the accuracy of information in the yield spread with stock returns and money supply we find the following results in this article first a structural change in the relationship between the yield spread and future recessions occur at the end of 1996 second whereas the japanese yield spread contains more precise information on future recessions than stock returns and nominal money supply before the structural break we cannot predict future recessions using the yield spread after the break third the money supply does not forecast future recessions for the entire sample period

context dependent preferences the standard theory of choice based on value maximization associates with each option a real value such that given an offered set the decision maker chooses the option with the highest value despite its simplicity and intuitive appeal there is a growing body of data that is inconsistent with this theory in particular the relative attractiveness of x compared to y often depends on the presence or absence of a third option z and the market share of an option can actually be increased by enlarging the offered set we review recent empirical findings that are inconsistent with value maximization and present a context dependent model that expresses the value of each option as an additive combination of two components a contingent weighting process that captures the effect of the background context and a binary comparison process that describes the effect of the local context the model accounts for observed violations of the standard theory and provides a framework for analyzing context dependent p

a decomposition of the predictive content of the term structure for output growth in canada the purpose of this study is to identify the underlying economic disturbances that drive the predictive content of the term structure for future output growth and those that may distort its information content the study uses a structural vector autoregressive var model of a small and open economy for canada that takes into account its relationship with financial markets in the usa and that canada is a relatively large exporter of commodities the model is used to decompose the sources of the variation of the slope of the yield curve and the correlation between the term spread and output growth monetary policy disturbances in both canada and the usa as well as short term interest rates are found to trigger excessive volatility in short term rates and the term spread that do not contribute to the predictive content of the term spread for future output growth at horizons relevant for monetary policy analysis however innovations in output growth inflation and other macroeconomic variables do not dist

the information content of the term structure of interest rates this paper presents the results of an alternative test of the rational expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates other researchers have also examined the validity of the expectations hypothesis of term structure while there is more often rejection of the expectations hypothesis no other theory data consistent with the entire yield curve provides an empirically adequate explanation of this phenomenon the study considers postwar us pure discount zero coupons bond yields with various maturities from one month to 60 months based on the ex post formation of rational expectations the expectations error is quantified and the level of truth of the expectations hypothesis tested that is the strength of the departure of the yield curve from the expectations theory the results suggest that a significant amount of information available at no cost to market agents is not incorporated in forming people s expectations

core and crust consumer prices and the term structure of interest rates we propose a model for nominal and real term structures of interest rates that includes dynamics for the three main components of total inflation core food and energy these dynamics combine together to produce a measure of expected total inflation that investors use to price nominal treasuries this framework captures different frequencies in inflation fluctuations shocks to core are more persistent and less volatile than shocks to food and especially energy the crust we find that a common structure of latent factors determines and predicts the term structure of yields and inflation our model outperforms popular benchmarks e g arma var and random walk specifications and it is at par with the survey of professional forecasters in forecasting inflation moreover we estimate real rates that agree with inflationindexed bond yields after adjusting for the liquidity premium in these bonds finally inflation and real rate risk premia show a declining pattern consistent with the changing nature of inflation and real rate risks

observing violations of transitivity by experimental methods the preference reversal phenomenon is usually interpreted as evidence of nontransitivity of preference but has also been explained as the result of the difference between individuals responses to choice and valuation problems the devices used by experimenters to elicit valuations and the random lottery selection incentive system this paper reports an experiment designed so that none of these factors could generate systematic nontransitivities yet systematic violations of transitivity were still found the pattern of violation was analogous with that found in previous preference reversal experiments and is consistent with regret theory copyright 1991 by the econometric society

a general equilibrium analysis of personal bankruptcy law we analyze an economy where principals lenders asset owners franchisors and agents borrowers tenants franchisees match and contract subject to moral hazard bankruptcy law defines the limited liability constraint in these contracts we provide a walrasian characterization of stable allocations and use it to analyze the distributional impact of changing bankruptcy law we show i weakening liability law leads to a redistribution of debt from poor to rich agents ii it makes rich agents better o and poor agents and principals worse o iii exemption limits pareto dominate other bankruptcy laws if project size is fixed and iv means testing as used in the new us bankruptcy law which is ex post pro poor in intent makes the poor worse o ex ante

capital requirements and business cycle regimes forward looking modelling of default probabilities abstract this paper proposes a forward looking model for time varying capital requirements which finds application within basel ii the model rests on the relationship between default rates and the business cycle by positing two regimes expansion and recession and by forecasting the associated probabilities the default probability for each rating class is defined as the expected value of a default rate whose distribution is a mixture of an expansion and a recession distribution the application to us data over the forecasting period 1971 2002 provides evidence that the model makes it possible to preserve the risk sensitivity of the capital requirement and at the same time to dampen procyclicality

financial variables and real activity in canada in this paper we utilize canadian and u s data to investigate the relationship between financial market variables canadian and u s and canadian output growth using a non parametric technique the financial variables examined are those that are often associated with future output growth namely stock prices interest rates interest rate spreads and monetary aggregates our results show that as the number of autocovariances that are assigned a non zero weight increases the feedback from selected canadian or u s financial variables to future canadian output growth increases in particular we find that stock prices as well as yield spreads and monetary aggregates are useful predictors of output growth this is in line with earlier parametric studies in the literature that find these variables to be good predictors of economic activity variables financieres et niveau d activite reelle au canada ce memoire utilise des donnees canadiennes et americaines pour analyser la relation entre les variables des marches financiers au canada et aux e u et la croissance du produit canadien a l aide d une technique non parametrique les variables financieres analysees sont celles qui sont generalement associees a la croissance du produit national dans l avenir i e le prix des actions les taux d interet les ecarts entre taux d interets et les agregats monetaires les resultats montrent que a proportion que le nombre des auto covariances auquel on assigne une valence zero s accroit les effets d echos variables financieres sur la croissance future du produit canadien s accroissent en particulier il appert que les prix des actions les ecarts entre taux d interets et les agregats monetaires sont des predicteurs utiles de la croissance du produit voila qui confirme les resultats d etudes parametriques

information in the yield curve a macro finance approach this paper uses an a ne term structure model that incorporates macroeconomic and nancial factors to study the term premium in the u s bond market the results corroborate the known rejection of the expectation hypothesis and indicate that one factor closely related to the cochrane and piazzesi 2005 factor the cp factor is responsible for most of the variation in bond premia furthermore the model implied bond premia are able to explain around 32 and 40 of the variability of one and two year excess returns and their outof sample performance is comparable to the one obtained with the cp factor the model is also used to decompose yield spreads into an expectations and a term premium component in order to forecast gdp growth and in ation although this decomposition does not seem important to forecast gdp growth it is crucial to forecast in ation for most forecasting horizons also the inclusion of control variables such as the short term interest rate and lagged variables does not drive out the predictive power of the yield spread decomposition

mental accounting in portfolio choice evidence from a flypaper effect this paper documents a lack of coordination between the asset allocations of different financial accounts in a household portfolio our findings are predicted by the theory of mental accounting richard h thaler 1985 1990 1999 agents sometimes make decisions about individual accounts in their portfolio without considering their other accounts the setting for our analysis is a large u s firm when an employee at this firm makes a 401 k contribution the company makes a matching contribution proportional to the employee s contribution up to a match threshold in march 2003 the firm changed its 401 k matching rules creating a natural experiment both before and after the rule change the initial allocation of participants own contribution flows was determined by the participants 1 the change in march 2003 was to the policy determining the initial asset allocation of the employer match contributions in the first regime before march 2003 the firm directed matching contribution flows entirely into employer stock this was not a binding restriction as participants could freely reallocate their match balances after matching contributions were made although in practice participants rarely did so in march 2003 the company changed its match policy requiring new enrollees to actively choose the asset allocation for both their own and match contribution flows the change between these regimes was economically neutral any allocation of balances in one regime could be replicated in the other nevertheless allocations to employer stock differed vastly across the two regimes employees who enrolled in february 2003 just before the regime change allocated 23 of their own contribution flows to employer stock since all of their match contributions were directed into employer stock this resulted in a 56 total 401 k allocation to employer stock combining the own contribution and match contribution accounts few of these february enrollees made subsequent trades to reduce their employer stock balances in either account employees who enrolled in march 2003 right after the change allocated 23 of their total own plus match contribution flows to employer stock notice that own contribution allocations to employer stock in the first regime precisely match the combined allocation of own and match contributions in the second regime 23 in both cases even though combined allocations differ greatly across the regimes these results imply that each dollar of employer stock contributed to enrollees through the match in the first regime increased the employees total holdings of employer stock by a full dollar rather than being offset by reduced employer stock holdings elsewhere or being sold off directly in other words money sticks where it hits a phrase attributed to arthur okun generating an asset allocation flypaper effect that is akin to the flypaper effects of public finance corporate finance and intra household consumption 2 after considering several explanations for the asset allocation flypaper effect we conclude that it is due in part to mental accounting our results can be explained by the following simple model in the first regime new enrollees actively allocated only their own contribution flows effectively ignoring the fact that their matching contributions were entirely directed into employer stock in the second regime the match allocation became salient because new enrollees were required to choose both their match and own contribution allocations during the enrollment process this caused enrollees to consider their entire 401 k portfolio instead of just their own contribution accounts as a result the fraction of total contributions allocated to employer stock under the second regime equaled the fraction of own contribution flows allocated to employer stock under the first regime the average participant allocated roughly one quarter of assets to employer stock in whatever accounts were salient whether the set of salient accounts was narrow regime one or broad regime two the dependence of portfolio outcomes on account salience is inconsistent with investors having a clear target asset allocation for their entire portfolio which they efficiently implement through their investment choices in accordance with much prior research we also find that investors are quite passive rarely reallocating their portfolios 3 however our central finding concerns asset allocation decisions made at enrollment a point when people have overcome their passivity and are taking action investor passivity thus cannot account for the unresponsiveness of own contribution allocations to the match allocation at enrollment under the first regime although passivity helps explain why these initial decisions are rarely reversed subsequently

a monetary measure of the strength and robustness of the attraction effect the attraction effect has been studied in conditions of indifference among options and measured at the aggregate level we introduce a new within subjects design based on induced preferences and psychometrics our method yields two individual level measures the traditional frequency measure and a new monetary indicator the monetary indicator measures the robustness of the effect to decreases in the relative utility of the target with respect to the competitor we find choice frequencies consistent with the literature our monetary measure shows that subjects still prefer the target up to the point where it is 8 more expensive than the competitor

the euro and corporate valuations in this paper we study the changes in corporate valuations induced by the adoption of the euro as the common currency in europe we use corporate level data from seventeen european countries of which eleven adopted the euro we show that the introduction of the euro has increased tobin s q ratios by 17 1 in the euro area countries that previously had weak currencies part of the increase in corporate valuations is explained by the decrease in interest rates and by the decrease in the cost of equity the increases in tobin s q are larger for firms that would be harmed by currency devaluations the author 2008 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

a multicountry comparison of term structure forecasts at long horizons abstract this paper extends previous work on the information in the u s term structure at longer maturities to britain west germany and switzerland we find strong evidence that the term structure does have significant ability to forecast changes in inflation particularly at long maturities on the other hand the ability of the term structure to forecast changes in one year interest rates is somewhat weaker only at the very longest horizon five years is there significant forecasting ability for interest rate changes

case based decision theory this paper suggests that decision making under uncertainty is at least partly case based we propose a model in which cases are primitive and provide a simple axiomatization of a decision rule that chooses a best act based on its past performance in similar cases each act is evaluated by the sum of the utility levels that resulted from using this act in past cases each weighted by the similarity of that past case to the problem at hand the formal model of case based decision theory naturally gives rise to the notions of satisficing decisions and aspiration levels

context dependent voting and political ambiguity abstract in recent decades psychologists have shown that the standard model of individual choice is often violated one regularly observed violation is that choices are influenced by the decision context to incorporate these effects into politics we introduce a theory of context dependent voting and apply it to the puzzle of why candidates are so frequently ambiguous in their policy pronouncements we show that context dependent voters develop a taste for ambiguity even when they evaluate distances quadratically and exhibit traditional risk aversion turning to aggregate effects we incorporate context dependent voting into a model of electoral competition and show that strategic candidates respond in equilibrium to context dependent voters by offering ambiguous platforms thereby affecting the policy outcome

choice based on reasons the case of attraction and compromise effects building on previous research this article proposes that choice behavior under preference uncertainty may be easier to explain by assuming that consumers select the alternative supported by the best reasons this approach provides an explanation for the so called attraction effect and leads to the prediction of a compromise effect consistent with the hypotheses the results indicate that 1 brands tend to gain share when they become compromise alternatives in a choice set 2 attraction and compromise effects tend to be stronger among subjects who expect to justify their decisions to others and 3 selections of dominating and compromise brands are associated with more elaborate and difficult decisions

a re examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread this paper revisits the yield spread s usefulness for predicting future real gdp growth we show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium we find that both factors are relevant for predicting real gdp growth but the respective contributions differ we investigate whether the cyclical behavior of interest rate volatility could account for either or both effects we find that while volatility displays important correlations with both the term structure of interest rates and gdp it does not appear to account for the yield spread s usefulness for predicting gdp growth

competition and incentives with motivated agents a unifying theme in the literature on organizations such as public bureaucracies and private nonprofits is the importance of mission as opposed to profit as an organizational goal such mission oriented organizations are frequently staffed by motivated agents who subscribe to the mission this paper studies incentives in such contexts and emphasizes the role of matching the mission preferences of principals and agents in increasing organizational efficiency matching economizes on the need for high powered incentives it can also however entrench bureaucratic conservatism and resistance to innovations the framework developed in this paper is applied to school competition incentives in the public sector and in private nonprofits and the interdependence of incentives and productivity between the private for profit sector and the mission oriented sector through occupational choice jel d23 d73 h41 l31 the late twentieth century witnessed a historic high in the march of market capitalism with unbridled optimism in the role of the profit motive in promoting welfare in the production of private goods moreover this generated a broad consensus on the optimal organization of private good production through privately owned competitive firms when it comes to the provision of collective goods no such consensus has emerged debates about the relative merits of public and private provision still dominate this paper suggests a contracting approach to the provision of collective goods it focuses on two key issues how to structure incentives and the role of competition between providers at its heart is the idea that organizations that provide collective goods cohere around a mission 2 thus production of collective goods can be viewed as mission oriented

efficiency and the role of default when security markets are incomplete this paper argues that default plays an important positive role in the economy if markets are incomplete and traders are only able to enter into contracts that they will be able to execute regardless of future events contingent contracting may be severely restricted moreover opening new markets may not relieve these restrictions default promotes efficiency in a way that opening new markets does not by making it possible for traders to enter into contracts that they will be able to execute with high probability but not with certainty copyright 1993 by american economic association

sharecropping and the interlinking of agrarian markets one of the often noted features of less developed agrarian economies is the existence of interlinkages among the land labor credit and product markets the landlord is often the supplier of credit he frequently purchases and markets the output of the tenant farmers and often sells raw materials and even consumption goods to his tenant farmers how can this phenomenon be explained what are the welfare consequences of attempts to restrict these practices which often seem to constitute restraints on free trade these are the questions to which this paper is addressed a general set of arguments applicable to both competitive and noncompetitive environments are presented to situations where all the terms of the contract are determined in an optimal way as well as to situations where many of the terms are specified institutionally section i examines interlinked credit and tenancy contracts section ii examines interlinked marketing and tenancy contracts section iii points out the possible interlinking between labor contracts and consumption goods markets and section iv presents the different equilibrium frameworks discussed in the paper such as monopoly monopsony competition and equilibria with surplus labor

on the theory of strategic voting many analyses of plurality rule elections predict the complete coor dination of strategic voting and hence support for only two candidates here i suggest that stable multi candidate support will arise in equilibrium a group of voters must partially coordinate behind one of two challenging candidates in order to dislodge a disliked incumbent in a departure from existing models the popular support for each challenger is uncertain this support must be inferred from the private observation of informative signals such as the social communication of pref erences throughout the electorate or the imperfect observation of opinion polls the uniquely stable voting equilibrium entails only limited strategic voting and hence incomplete coordination this is due to the surprising presence of negative feed back an increase in the degree of strategic voting by others reduces the incentives for an individual to vote strategically the incentive to vote strategically is lower in relatively marginal elections after controlling for the distance from contention of a trailing preferred challenger a calibration of the model applied to the uk general election of 1997 is consistent with the impact of strategic voting and the reported accuracy of voters understanding of the electoral situation it suggests that nearly 50 seats may have been lost by the conservative party due to strategic voting 1 plurality rule elections and strategic voting 1 1 strategic voting and duverger s law plurality rule elections where the winner is the candidate who receives the largest number of votes are vulnerable to strategic voting a voter might well switch away from her preferred candidate and toward a perceived leader in the hope of exerting a greater influence over the outcome of the election this phenomenon has long been the focus of both economic and political scientific study in an influential essay riker 1982b cited droop s 1871 eloquent exposition of the strategic voting problem 1 i oer my grateful thanks to the many friends colleagues seminar participants referees and editors who have oered insightful comments during the long gestation of this paper its antecedents and companion work special thanks go to steve fisher whose empirical analysis of strategic voting raised many of the questions that i seek to answer in this paper and to chris wallace this particular paper brings together much of the analysis previously circulated in the papers a new theory of strategic voting strategic voting under the qualified majority rule and idiosyncrasy information and the impact of strategic voting

the yield curve and the macro economy across time and frequencies this paper assesses the relation between the yield curve and the main macroeconomic variables in the u s between early 1960s and 2009 across time and frequencies using wavelet analyses the shape of the yield curve is modelled by latent factors corresponding to its level slope and curvature estimated by maximum likelihood with the kalman filter the macroeconomic variables measure economic activity unemployment inflation and the fed funds rate the cross wavelet tools employed coherency and phase difference the set of variables and the length of the sample allow for a thorough appraisal of the timevariation and structural breaks in the direction intensity synchronization and periodicity of the relation between the yield curve and the macro economy our evidence establishes a number of new stylized facts on the yield curve macro relation and sheds light on several results found in the literature which could not have been achieved with analyses conducted strictly in the time domain as most of the literature or purely in the frequency domain

u s consumer bankruptcy choice the importance of general equilibrium effects abstract we study the implications of u s personal bankruptcy rules for resource allocation and welfare our analysis shows that general equilibrium considerations along with bankruptcy chapter choice and production matter crucially for the effects of policy reform contrary to previous work we find that completely eliminating bankruptcy provisions causes significant declines in output and welfare by reducing capital formation and labor input furthermore subjecting chapter 7 filers to means testing as suggested by recent legislative proposals would not improve upon current bankruptcy provisions and at best leave aggregate filings output and welfare unchanged however we do find that an alternative tightening of chapter 7 in the form of lower asset exemptions can increase economic efficiency

credit market frictions and political failure we study how an excessively favorable regulatory environment for banks could arise even with a perfectly competitive credit market in a median voter world in our occupational choice model with heterogeneous wealth endowments market failure due to unobservability of entrepreneurial talent endogenously creates a misalignment between surplus maximizing reforms and reforms that are preferred by the median voter who is a worker this is in contrast to the world without market failure where the electorate unanimously vote in favor of surplus maximizing institutional reforms this paper illustrates how market failure could lead to political failure even in the benchmark political system that is free from capture by interest groups

what does the term structure tell us about future inflation abstract this empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less the term structure of nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but does provide information about the term structure of real interest rates however as maturities lengthen to nine and twelve months the nominal term structure begins to contain information about future inflation but ceases to provide information about the real term structure these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes at different points in the term structure

justification effects on consumer choice of hedonic and utilitarian goods abstract people want to have fun and they are more likely to have fun if the situation allows them to justify it this research studies how people s need for justifying hedonic consumption drives two choice patterns that are observed in typical purchase contexts first relative preferences between hedonic and utilitarian alternatives can reverse depending on how the immediate purchase situation presents itself a hedonic alternative tends to be rated more highly than a comparable utilitarian alternative when each is presented singly but the utilitarian alternative tends to be chosen over the hedonic alternative when the two are presented jointly second people have preferences for expending different combinations of time effort and money for acquiring hedonic versus utilitarian items they are willing to pay more in time for hedonic goods and more in money for utilitarian goods the author explores the topic through a combination of four experiments and field studies

reference dependent risk attitudes we use koszegi and rabin s 2006 model of reference dependent utility and an extension of it that applies to decisions with delayed consequences to study preferences over monetary risk because our theory equates the reference point with recent probabilistic beliefs about outcomes it predicts specific ways in which the environment influences attitudes toward modest scale risk it replicates classical prospect theory including the prediction of distaste for insuring losses when exposure to risk is a surprise but implies first order risk aversion when a risk and the possibility of insuring it are anticipated a prior expectation to take on risk decreases aversion to both the anticipated and additional risk for large scale risk the model allows for standard consumption utility to dominate reference dependent gain loss utility generating nearly identical risk aversion across situations

on the informational role of term structure in the us monetary policy rule abstract this paper uses a structural approach based on the indirect inference principle to estimate a standard version of the new keynesian monetary nkm model augmented with term structure using both revised and real time data the estimation results show that the term spread and policy inertia are both important determinants of the us estimated monetary policy rule whereas the persistence of shocks plays a small but significant role when revised and real time data of output and inflation are both considered more importantly the relative importance of term spread and persistent shocks in the policy rule and the shock transmission mechanism drastically change when it is taken into account that real time data are not well behaved

how stable is the predictive power of the yield curve evidence from germany and the united states empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation some of these relationships are highly significant but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time we use recent econometric techniques for break testing to examine whether the empirical relationships are in fact stable we consider continuous models which predict either economic growth or inflation and binary models which predict either recessions or inflationary pressure in each case we draw on evidence from germany and the united states models that predict real activity are somewhat more stable than those that predict inflation and binary models are more stable than continuous models the model that predicts recessions is stable over our full sample period in both germany and the united states