cut to the bone hospital takeovers and nurse employment contracts the authors examine changes in the wages employment and effort of nurses in california hospitals following takeovers by large chains in the 1990s the market for nurses has been described as a classic monopsony so that one might expect increases in firm market power to be associated with declines in wages however a basic contracting model predicts effects on effort rather than on wages which is what this analysis finds nurses experienced few declines in wages following takeovers but did see increases in the number of patients per nurse the measure of effort used here the authors show that their results are also consistent with an extended version of the monopsony model that considers effort and allows for revenue shifts following a takeover finally they find that these changes were similar in the largest for profit and non profit chains suggesting that market forces are more important than institutional form

hospital ownership and performance this study compares the performance of three ownership forms of hospitals for profit private nonprofit and public further classified according to whether or not the hospital is run by a hospital chain data come from a 1979 national survey of u s hospitals the authors find that hospital cost is quite similar among alternative ownership forms as is profitability the results do not provide much empirical support for standard property rights theory several reasons are suggested why this may be so

alternative p models of inflation forecasts i introduction inflation forecasts play a key role in monetary and macroeconomics during the past three decades dramatic changes in the inflationary environment have stimulated a wealth of studies on the relative accuracy of alternative models of inflation forecasts in particular mehra 1988 stockton and glassman 1987 and reichenstein and elliott 1987 found varying performance in traditional models including the term structure phillips curve and typical monetarist models across postwar periods against this background hallman porter and small 1991 hps introduced a model called p star p sup as inflation forecasters holy grail the p sup framework is built on the general perception that inflation over the long run is a monetary phenomenon however as christiano 1989 argued p sup entails no practical implication for shorter run horizons that are of primary interest to inflation forecasters he further pointed out that for the period of 1970 89 one to three year ahead forecasts from p sup are not meaningfully more accurate than those from traditional models the usefulness of p sup as an anchor for the price level also suffers from another limitation the assumption that velocity which is the ratio of nominal gdp to a monetary aggregate is stable over the long run hps justified the validity of this hypothesis based on postwar 1955 88 data for the broad monetary aggregate m2 used in their model during the early 1990s however the growth rate of m2 apparently slowed down relative to that of gdp leading to a sharp rise in m2 velocity this consequently caused p sup to persistently underpredict actual inflation duca 1995a has provided a detailed discussion on plausible sources of this instability in velocity the literature has also offered plausible solutions to correct p sup models for the observed structural change ranging from redefining the relevant monetary aggregate to directly accounting for a trend break in velocity while evidence supports that these individual methods improve upon the original p sup formulation there is a lack of research comparing their performance especially in periods other than the early 1990s the first objective of the present study therefore is to fill this void the second objective of this paper is to reevaluate the robustness of earlier findings regarding the relative performance of hps s original p sup model to this end we divide the full out of sample forecast period of 1970 96 into three subsamples our results reveal a pattern of switching forecast performance between money based and output based models across recent periods the fragility of these models highlights the extent of temporal instability in the inflation generating process this paper proceeds as follows the next section describes alternative p sup model specifications and other inflation forecast models section iii discusses the forecast results section iv summarizes and concludes ii model specifications the p sup model the benchmark of the p sup model is the quantity theory of money which relies on the equation of exchange 1 p sub t equivalent to m sub t v sub t y sub t where p is the price level m is a measure of money supply v is the velocity of money y is the level of output real gdp and a time subscript denotes the current value of a variable it follows that if v sub t and y sub t reach their long run equilibrium levels at mathematical expression omitted and mathematical expression omitted respectively then the current equilibrium price level mathematical expression omitted can be determined as 2 mathematical expression omitted according to hps mathematical expression omitted is measured by the historical mean of v sub t and mathematical expression omitted by the level of potential gdp

the effects of minimum wages on wage dispersion and employment evidence from the u k wages councils using data on wages council coverage from the united kingdom new earnings survey the authors examine the impact of mandated minimum wages on wage dispersion and employment in the united kingdom in the 1980s they find evidence that a dramatic decline in the toughness of the regulation imposed by the wages councils through the 1980s a decline that is in the level of the minimum wage relative to the average wage significantly contributed to widening wage dispersion over those years there is however no evidence of an increase in employment resulting from the weakening bite of the wages council minimum pay rates instead consistent with the conclusions of several recent u s studies the findings suggest that the minimum wage had either no effect or a positive effect on employment

are those paid more really more productive the case of experience this study uses computerized personnel microdata on the white male managerial and professional employees at a major u s corporation to address the following question can the additional earnings which are associated with more labor market experience at a point in time really be explained by higher productivity at the same point in time our answer to this question based on both cross sectional and longitudinal information is that performance plays a substantially smaller role in explaining cross sectional experience earnings differentials and earnings growth than is claimed by those who have adopted the human capital explanation of the experience earnings profile this response depends critically on our assumption that the performance ratings which supervisors give to their white male managerial and professional subordinates adequately reflect the subordinates relative productivity in the year of assessment we present a great deal of evidence which strongly supports this assumption

a long view of real rates in light of the large and sustained rise in real interest rates in the late 1970s and early 1980s this paper reviews i the theoretical discussion on the determination of nominal and real interest rates ii the factors determining real interest rates and iii problems of defining and measuring the real rate we go on to examine the historical record of real interest rates in france germany the uk and the usa since 1875 we find that high real rates since 1980 seem to be a return to a long run norm and it is the period from the second world war to 1979 that represents a more natural period in which to investigate an abrupt change of behaviour for real interest rates copyright 1999 by oxford university press

a comparison of models of long term inflationary expectations abstract this paper compares several models of long term inflationary expectations including time series models models drawn from interest rate relationships and a structural model developed from a portfolio balance framework their within sample performance over 1961 1974 and out of sample performance over periods covering 1975 1982 are compared evaluation criteria include accuracy of forecasts and ability to capture changes in the trend of long term inflation the structural model is judged best its forecasts are generally the most accurate and it performs well in periods of rising and falling inflation an attribute not present in other models

unions and hospitals some unresolved issues abstract this article investigates the impact of unions on the wages of hospital workers our ols findings agree with previous ols studies unions increase registered nurses rns wages by five percent and by about eight to ten percent for other hospital workers by contrast we find after correcting for selectivity bias in hospital unionization status a direct union effect of about twenty percent on rn wages and in excess of thirty percent on wages of other hospital workers while the results based on selectivity bias adjustments make us uneasy we do not reject them out of hand we also find indirect union effects up to five percent by other unionized occupations within a hospital and up to ten percent by other unionized hospitals in the local labor market prospective reimbursement programs have a negative impact on the wages of hospital workers but are only significant for non unionized occupations our three empirical tests of monopsony all reject the view that monopsony is a factor in hospital wage setting even considering the large union effects based on selectivity bias adjustment we conclude that unions have been a minor contributor to hospital cost inflation

returns to nursing education 1970 84 using four large micro data sets this paper examines the returns to investments in education by registered nurses during the period 1970 84 wage models are estimated by a maximum likelihood technique that accounts for selection bias no wage difference existed between associate and diploma degree nurses modest hourly wage premiums were found for baccalaureate bs compared with associate degree nurses returns to positions of responsibility were substantial however when career patterns of promotion were examined in a multinomial logit model and although statistically significant differences existed in favor of the baccalaureate nurses the differences were small blacks made substantial gains over the period while males consistently earned large wage premiums

factors affecting levels and growth rates in the wage rates of women evidence from nursing using data from two surveys of nurses 1981 and 1989 the study examines the factors affecting the levels and growth rates in the wage rates paid to women especially married women who were licensed as registered nurses our results indicate that the influence of such household characteristics as marital status age and number of children and spouse s characteristic tended to diminish over the 1980s the evidence further suggests that the penalties for frequent switches in employment state were larger at the end of the decade than at the beginning further wages paid to nurses with baccalaureates were statistically the same as those paid to nurses with lesser formal education the return to the baccalaureate appears to be in the form of the higher wages and salaries earned by those who obtain post baccalaureate degrees

using regional variation in wages to measure the effects of the federal minimum wage the imposition of a national minimum wage standard provides a natural experiment in which the treatment effect varies across states depending on the fraction of workers initially earning less than the new minimum the author exploits this fact to evaluate the effect of the april 1990 increase in the federal minimum wage on teenagers wages employment and school enrollment comparisons of grouped and individual state data confirm that the rise in the minimum wage increased teenagers wages there is no evidence of corresponding losses in teenage employment or changes in teenage school enrollment

why do part time workers earn less the role of worker and job skills part time workers receive considerably lower hourly earnings than do full time workers using current population survey earnings files for september 1995 through december 2002 the author finds that measurable worker and job characteristics including occupational skill requirements account for much of the part time penalty longitudinal analysis of the data indicates that much of the remaining gap reflects worker heterogeneity evidenced by small wage gains and losses among workers switching between part time and full time jobs the lower skills of part time than full time workers result primarily from limited work experience and accumulation of human capital little evidence can be found of a large wage gap between part time and full time women a part time wage penalty is found for men but men account for less than one third of total part time employment

addressing nurse shortages what can policy makers learn from the econometric evidence on nurse labour supply this paper provides a detailed review of the international studies that have used formal econometric models to investigate the labour supply decision of registered nurses rns the main finding is that at least in the short run rn labour supply appears to be fairly unresponsive to wage changes consequently even large wage increases are unlikely to be successful in tackling current and predicted nurse shortages this finding points to the importance of non pecuniary job aspects in influencing labour supply however the paper concludes by arguing that these empirical findings should be viewed with some caution given both theoretical and econometric limitations

capital accumulation and the growth of aggregate agricultural production abstract this report empirically examines the role which capital accumulation plays in the growth of agricultural production potential the report assumes that the degree towhich available technology can be implemented in a nation s agricultural sector depends on accumulated investments that have been made in the sector results from estimating aggregate agricultural production functions show the primary importance of rural labor in accounting for agricultural gdp and crop production capital accumulation is the dominant explainer of livestock production estimation results support the conjecture that capital tends to save scarce land resources substitute relationship and use rural labor complementarity relationship output supply elasticities derived from the estimated equations tend to be large the large elasticities imply that price distortions have had large impacts on resource use and production

the impact of hospital market structure on patient volume average length of stay and the cost of care a variety of recent proposals rely heavily on market forces as a means of controlling hospital cost inflation sceptics argue however that increased competition might lead to cost increasing acquisitions of specialized clinical services and other forms of non price competition as means of attracting physicians and patients using data from hospitals in 1972 we analyzed the impact of market structure on average hospital costs measured in terms of both cost per patient and cost per patient day under the retrospective reimbursement system in place at the time hospitals in more competitive environments exhibited significantly higher costs of production than did those in less competitive environments

monopsony power in the market for nurses estimates are presented of the inverse elasticity of supply of nursing services to the individual hospital a quantity which is a natural measure of employer market power the estimates corresponding to employment changes taking place over one year are quite high in the neighborhood of 0 79 and even for changes taking place over three years are substantial in the neighborhood of 0 26 the estimates do not significantly differ for hospitals in major metropolitan areas and do not depend very sensitively on the assumed form of the oligopsony equilibrium this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

on the real effects of short and long run inflation and relative sector price variability some empirical evidence using the kalman filter this paper evaluates empirically the effects of sector relative price variability and short run and long run inflation on the growth rate of real output in the united states since 1947 also permanent and transitory estimates are constructed to evaluate the effects of unanticipated movements in sector relative price on the growth rate of real output the results show a statistically significant inverse relationship beween the growth rate of real output and transitory sector relative price variability and anticipated long run inflation and a direct relationship between the growth rate of real output and unanticipated short run inflation

monopsony in the low wage labor market evidence from minimum nurse staffing regulations this paper provides direct evidence on the extent of monopsony power in the low wage labor market by estimating the firm level elasticity of labor supply for nurse aides in the long term care nursing home industry using exogenous variation in hiring induced by the passage of a state minimum nurse staffing law i find that facilities initially out of compliance with the new law did not have to raise their wage offers relative to their competitors in order to hire more nurses while this is consistent with perfect competition in simple monopsony models of the labor market i discuss how the results may be more ambiguous in more complicated models

wage determination of registered nurses in proprietary and nonprofit nursing homes this study explores why registered nurses employed in nonprofit nursing homes earn higher wages than those employed in proprietary facilities previous studies have explained this finding in a property rights context where higher wages were posited to result from the weaker incentives for cost minimization accompanying nonprofit status this paper tests an alternative explanation of sectoral wage differences which is predicated on the reason for the coexistence offor profit and nonprofit firms in a given industry informational constraints concerning the quality of care are posited to cause the long term health care market to fail to provide care at the upper levels of a quality of care continuum nonprofits are viewed as a response to this form of market failure acting to fulfill customers demand for higher quality and higher cost long term care with attendant demand for higher quality nurses than in for profit homes both the observed sectoral pattern in selectivity and wage decompositions based on selectivity corrected wage regressions call into question the property right explanation yet are consistent with an asymmetric information explanation

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

compensating differentials and unmeasured ability in the labor market for nurses why do hospitals pay more nurses employed in hospitals realize a large wage advantage relative to nurses employed elsewhere this paper examines alternative sources of the hospital premium a topic of some interest given the current shifting of medical care out of hospitals whereas cross sectional estimates indicate a hospital rn wage advantage of roughly 20 percent longitudinal analysis suggests that a third to a half of the advantage is due to unmeasured worker ability the remainder is likely to reflect compensating differentials for hospital disamenities we further probe possible sources of the rn hospital premium by examining the receipt of fringe benefits differences in cognitive ability as measured by afqt test scores differences in the quality of experience the role of labor unions and rents earnings on second jobs and the magnitude of wage differentials associated with work shift

international supply response abstract long run aggregate agricultural supply elasticities obtained from conventional supply functions fitted to time series data tend to be relatively inelastic in the range of 0 1 to 0 4 i argue that these estimates substantially understate the true long run supply response in agriculture because of the lack of international input price data implicit output input price ratios are estimated from a production function assuming profit maximization the estimation of an aggregate supply function utilizing these price ratios yields long run aggregate supply elasticities in the range of 0 90 to 1 19 these figures are substantially larger than those obtained from conventional supply functions fitted to time series data but correspond closely to estimates reported in an earlier cross country study that used different price data for different points in time the results imply that policies which distort domestic and or world market prices of agricultural products cause greater output distortions in both the dcs and ldcs than are predicted by the small supply elasticities obtained from conventional supply estimation

classic or new monopsony searching for evidence in nursing labor markets the market for registered nurses rns is often offered as an example of classic monopsony while a new monopsony literature emphasizes that firm labor supply is upward sloping independent of market structure using data from multiple sources we explore the relationship between nursing wages in hospitals and measures of classic and new monopsony wage level analysis fails to provide support for classic monopsony the relative wages of rns in 240 u s labor markets being largely uncorrelated with hospital system concentration longitudinal analysis shows nursing wages declining with increases in hospital concentration we interpret these results as providing support for classic monopsony effects in the short run but question whether wage effects are sustained in the long run no relationship is found between nursing wages and a new monopsony measure of mobility but support for new monopsony is found for women elsewhere in the labor market rns display greater interemployer mobility than do women or men in general two conclusions follow first upward sloping labor supply need not imply monopsonistic outcomes second absent more compelling evidence nursing should not be held up as a prototypical example of monopsony classic or new

firm sponsored general education and mobility frictions evidence from hospital sponsorship of nursing schools and faculty this study asks why hospitals provide direct financial support to nursing schools and faculty this support is striking because nursing education is clearly general clearly paid by the firm and information asymmetries appear minimal using aha and survey data i find hospitals employing a greater share of their msa s registered nurses are more likely to provide direct financial support to nursing schools and faculty net of size and other institutional controls given the institutional context i interpret this result as unusually specific evidence that technologically general skill training may be made de facto specific by imperfect and costly mobility

inflation output and money this paper uses money demand theory and a rational expectations version of the quantity theory of money to study inflation in the united states during the post korean war period the major results are as follows 1 the theory and tests explain the phenomenon of stagflation that is the negative relation between inflation and real activity observed during the post 1953 period the analysis calls into question the many variants of the phillips curve which presume that inflation real activity relations are positive 2 consistent with the models of patinkin 1961 and fama 1980 monthly quarterly and annual data indicate that the base currency plus reserves held against deposits is the relevant monetary variable in the inflation process and that demand deposits are irrelevant the direct policy implication is that the base is the key monetary variable in the control of inflation 3 the most convincing evidence for the simple quantity theory view of inflation proposed here comes from the comparison of the conditional exmoney demand theory and the quantity theory of money are used to study the inflation process as predicted by the model monthly quarterly and annual data indicate that inflation is positively related to money growth rates and negatively related to growth rates of real activity the theoretical and empirical origins of stagflation are explained and changes in monetary arrangements to simplify the control of inflation are prescribed

inflation real returns and capital investment we find evidence for the hypothesis of mundell 1963 and tobin 1965 that the expected real return component of interest rates is negatively related to the expected inflation component in the mundell tobin model the variation in expected real returns is caused by the variation in expected inflation our evidence suggests however that the variation in expected real returns is more fundamentally an outcome of the capital expenditures process equilibrium expected real returns vary directly with capital expenditures in order to induce equilibrium allocations of resources between consumption and investment this positive relation between expected real returns and real activity which comes out of the real sector combines with a negative relation between expected inflation and real activity which is traced to the monetary sector thus inducing the negative relation between expected inflation and expected real returns predicted by mundell and tobin but explained in terms of a model much different from theirs

seniority wages and productivity a turbulent decade why does a worker s wage tend to grow with seniority in the firm and what does this have to do with productivity two decades ago neoclassical labor economists thought that the theory of human capital provided a good answer to this question the last decade has however been one of puzzles and doubt at this point few would give an unambiguous answer and much hinges on the answer an attractive feature of human capital theory is that it yields a consistent and coherent explanation for several aspects of the employer employee relationship for example seniority systems layoff policies that vary with skill and the relationship between tenure and turnover can be explained in terms of human capital the fact that these explanations are connected leads however to something like a domino effect doubts about one cast doubt on the others if the human capital explanation for the wage seniority relationship is flawed then human capital explanations for other phenomena may require reevaluation in addition an important body of empirical research is built around the assumption that at any point in time a person s wage indicates the person s productivity included here is the extensive literature on the human capital earnings function as well as work on labor demand market discrimination and compensating differentials that assumption has become controversial in recent years in part because implicit contract theories predict that compensation will be redistributed over the period of the contract if a person s spot wage has little to do with spot productivity but rather is an instrument of a complex insurance or deferred compensation scheme then a reassessment of the empirical research may be necessary

is there monopsony in the labor market evidence from a natural experiment recent theoretical and empirical advances have renewed interest in monopsonistic models of the labor market however there is little direct empirical support for these models we use an exogenous change in wages at department of veterans affairs va hospitals as a natural experiment to investigate the extent of monopsony in the nurse labor market we estimate that labor supply to individual hospitals is quite inelastic with short run elasticity around 0 1 we also find that non va hospitals responded to the va wage change by changing their own wages

monopsony power and relative wages in the labor market for nurses this paper examines the thesis that monopsony power is an important determinant of wages in nursing labor markets using data from the 1985 93 current population surveys measures of relative nurse non nurse wage rates for 252 labor markets are constructed contrary to predictions from the monopsony model no positive relationship exists between relative nursing wages and hospital density or market size nor is support found for the presence of monopsony power based on evidence on union wage premiums slopes of experience profiles or the mix of rn to total hospital employment

estimating the residual demand curve facing a single firm this paper presents an econometric technique for estimating the single firm residual demand curve that does not require the estimation of demand cross elasticities the technique is particularly suited for the estimation of firm market power in product differentiated industries where cross elasticities are notoriously difficult to measure one estimated parameter is directly related to a firm s markup of price over marginal cost when product differentiation is extensive when an industry consists of a dominant firm and a price taking fringe when a consistent conjectures equilibrium is the correct oligopoly solution concept when firms are stackelberg leaders relative to their environment or when firms are perfect competitors the estimates can indicate power over price in other circumstances an instrumental variables technique is employed using firm individuated factor prices to identify firm specific residual demand yet even when instruments are unavailable the technique produces elasticity estimates biased in the conservative direction of disproving market power this methodology is applied to estimate the market power of three firms in an industry characterized by product differentiation brewing over our 1962 82 sample period pabst and coors had similar national market shares and each had high shares in several states yet pabst was virtually a price taker while coors possessed substantial market power anheuser busch had market power in the early part of the sample but little after 1975 when miller brewing changed the competitive nature of the industry

registered nurses and the value of bilingualism recent research indicates that markets do not value bilingual skills these results however are not robust across all labor markets and one notable counter instance is the market for registered

the endogeneity of union status an empirical test an unsettled issue in the literature relating to the relative wage effect of unions is the appropriate treatment of union status in a wage determination model in the context of a three equation model determining union membership and union and nonunion sector wage rates this paper presents an instrumental variables iv procedure for estimating the parameters of the wage equations and a test of the exogeneity of union status using the hausman specification test an advantage of our iv procedure in comparison to the widely used inverse mill s ratio procedure is that our procedure is a distribution free estimator whereas the inverse mill s ratio estimator hinges in the assumption that the error term of the choice equation is normally distributed using data for a sample of middle aged white workers we estimate the parameters of the union and nonunion wage equations with both procedures on the key question of the endogeneity of union status the hausman test decisively rejects the null hypothesis of exo

a simultaneous equation model of labor supply fertility and earnings of married women the case of registered nurses a simultaneous equation model of labor supply fertility and earnings is developed and estimated for an important subset of the female population married registered nurses rns measures of variables specific to married nurses age 21 64 are developed by aggregating observations on individual nurses or their families into standard metropolitan statistical area smsa averages from the 1 in 100 public use sample of the 1970 census of population in the u s the sample was restricted in certain ways the grouped observations apply only to white rns who are married with husband present and live in smsas of over 250000 population in 1970 except honolulu the sample is further restricted so that each included observation representing an smsa average is based upon an underlying pool of at least 15 individual nurses this last restriction reduces the sample of smsas to 88 from 124 the coefficient on the nurse wage variable is positive and statistically significant with an implied wage elasticity of 40 at the means these estimates are consistent with those observed using the analogous microcensus data on rns rn fertility has the predicted negative effect on nurse labor supply but is statistically insignificant but the magnitude of the fertility coefficient is plausible a 10 increase in nurse fertility within an smsa number of children ever born 1000 nurses ever married within an smsa is associated with a reduction in the smsa nurse labor supply the estimated coefficients of the husband earnings and nonlabor income variables are negative but only the former is statistically significant at the 90 level or above the estimated effect of the nurses earnings opportunities on her fertility are statistically insignificant but the wage coefficient is negative as expected and implies an elasticity of nurse fertility with respect to the nurse wage rate of approximately 2 the coefficient on the labor supply variable is negative and statistically significant confirming the hypothesis that increased labor market activity increases the opportunity costs of children husbands earnings are not a significant determinant of rn fertility the estimates suggest that nurse labor supply and fertility decisions are relatively unimportant factors in determining the nurses market earnings

effect of immigrant nurses on labor market outcomes of us nurses we study the effect of immigration of foreign trained registered nurses rns on the employment and wages of us trained rns we use the area approach and study effects of immigration in labor markets defined by the state we find substantial evidence that immigration by foreign trained nurses increases the supply of nurses and that this increase in supply is associated with a decrease in annual earnings estimates suggest that a 10 percent increase in supply due to immigration is associated with a one to four percent decrease in annual earnings

the union impact on hospital wages and fringe benefits this paper uses 1977 data from a national probability sample of 1 200 hospitals to estimate the effect of unions on wages and fringe benefits in four occupations registered nurses practical nurses secretaries and housekeepers the results show that unionization has a significant impact on wages that increases with the length of time collective bargaining has been in effect at the individual hospital the overall wage effect of unions is about 8 percent for both types of nurses and 11 to 12 percent for secretaries and housekeepers employed in hospitals the authors also estimate an equation for hospital wide fringe benefits which shows that such benefits are positively related to the percent of full time employees in the four occupations covered by union contracts

a comparison of inflation forecasts interest rate models provide slightly better monthly forecasts and substantially better eight and fourteen month forecasts of inflation than a univariate time series model the livingston surveys underestimate eight and fourteen month inflation rates especially during the high inflation period of 1978 81 in contrast eight and fourteen month inflation forecasts extrapolated from one month interest rates show little bias and track ex post eight and fourteen month inflation rates better than the survey forecasts

inflation and real interest rates on assets with different risk characteristics given the importance of ex ante real interest rates to economic decision making it is no surprise that much empirical research focuses on them 1 several recent studies find that the ex ante real returns for short term u s treasury securities are not constant and are negatively correlated both with inflation and with nominal interest rates this paper examines the extent to which these findings hold for assets of longer maturity are robust with respect to the choice of price index and are stable over time we expand the set of assets studied to include those of longer maturity both publicly and privately issued for two reasons first their ex ante real returns may differ substantially from that of a short term nominally riskless security second because longer maturity assets have risk characteristics closer to capital their ex ante real returns are potentially more relevant for investment and savings decisions we explore the use of various price indices because the index used in most studies the consumer price index severely overstates inflation during the 1970s as a result of its inappropriate treatment of residential housing costs 2 this overstatement casts doubt on an important finding of previous studies that there are long stretches of time during the 1970s when ex ante real rates are significantly negative given the existence of holding costs for the goods relevant to most price indices and the absence of a riskless real return no arbitrage conditions are violated by a negative ex ante real rate however its persistence is problematical because asset holders are typically assumed to have a positive rate of time preference which ensures a positive ex ante real rate in the long run we find that before 1979 a negative relationship of ex ante real rates both with inflation and with nominal interest rates appears for the longer maturity assets as well as the short term nominally riskless asset indeed the relationship grows

labor economics and the psychology of organizations this essay is a discussion of how economists are attempting to understand institutions within the organizations of the labor market the institutions and issues discussed include mandatory retirement discontinuous jumps in wages pay compression rights of tenure up or out hierarchies timing of raises promotions and evaluations the existence of partnerships the use of bonuses vs penalties and pay as a motivator

arthritis and the earnings of men an analysis incorporating selection bias abstract arthritis is a chronic and crippling disease which affects the work effort and earnings of more than 14 million working age victims this paper examines the effects of arthritis on the earnings of men aged 18 to 64 arthritis has large and significant effects on earnings most models incorporating selection bias have examined groups with lower labor force participation rates than prime age males but significant selection bias is found here when selection bias is considered the estimated absolute effects of arthritis are increased and the percentage of the gap between arthritic and non arthritic males explained by arthritis as opposed to other factors increases this study is unusual in identifying the effects of a single disease on earnings

monopsony in the labor market this paper surveys recent theoretical and empirical research on monopsony in labor markets broadly defined as upward sloping labor supply to an employer we compare older monopsony models based on small numbers of employers with newer models based on labor market frictions such as moving costs and search we also compare older econometric approaches that focus on static wage concentration relationships with newer approaches that focus on dynamics our review of empirical estimates suggests that monopsony power based on small numbers of employers is probably rare but occasionally large while monopsony power based on frictions is probably widespread but small on average

long term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices abstract crop yields are endogenous as long as economic agents adjust to permanent changes in expected prices the literature however does not offer a definitive value of how much yield would change in response to sustained price changes to fill the gap we use available scientific findings and data to estimate yield elasticities that enable agricultural commodity and food policy analysis using a world market model with short to long run yield response we show the impacts of sustained energy price shocks on global cereal supply and demand the results highlight substantial differences in quantity and price effects depending on the yield elasticities these results demonstrate the need to recognize yield response when assessing impacts of energy prices or biofuel production on food uses or more generally on food security in the face of income and population growth evolving dietary patterns climate change implications or other long run pressures

the earnings and employment of nurses in an era of cost containment previous research has shown that from the 1980s through the early 1990s nurses enjoyed substantial wage and employment gains that stemmed to some extent from increased labor demand using individual data for 1988 98 to compare nurses fortunes with those of college educated women and other workers in the health care industry the author documents that nurses experienced a decline in real wages beginning in the early 1990s at the same time that the skill premium for rns as reflected by the return to education and experience was increasing changes in measured characteristics and their returns explain very little of the decline consistent with the theory that the relative wage decrease was driven by a decline in the demand for rns and increased cost constraints the effects of hmo penetration are found to explain only a small part of the variation in wages across metropolitan statistical areas and across time

unions and relative real wages much attention has been focused recently on the effects of unions on economic stability resource allocation and income distribution almost always the discussion begins with the effects of unions on labor earnings or wages yet substantial agreement on the magnitude of the effect of unions on wages or earnings hardly seems close at hand among other studies on this subject it is noted that the classic study by h gregg lewis estimates a union nonunion wage differential of about 10 15 percent in 1957 58 leonard weiss estimates about the same differential as lewis and victor fuchs frank stafford adrian throop and orley ashenfelter and george johnson estimate a much larger differential the question such studies should attempt to answer is whether and how much union membership increases wages facing individuals holding constant other things such as education race sex age and occupation the studies mentioned above are not entirely appropriate to answer this question for example some suffer from a potentially severe aggregation bias in examining average wages or earnings and the percentage of the labor force unionized and or fail to disaggregate by race and sex those that attempt to examine opportunities facing individuals are forced to employ data on earnings rather than wages and thereby build at least partially voluntary labor supply and demand decisions into their estimates the purpose of this paper is to present new evidence on the relative wages of union and nonunion workers by applying recent advances in the hedonic method of price measurement to a new and rich source of data on individual workers in section i an equation relating wages to personal characteristics is developed which focuses on union membership and its interaction with race sex occupation and geographical area the equation extends work in this area by robert hall in section ii a brief discussion of the data is presented together with empirical estimates of the union nonunion wage differential formal tests are made of some interesting hypotheses about the pattern of the relative wages of union and nonunion workers by race sex occupation and geographical area the results are in much closer accord with the estimates of lewis and weiss than those of fuchs stafford and throop in section iii some concluding remarks are offered including some observations on the limitations of this type of study

monopsony power pay structure and training although interest in monopsonistic influences on labor market outcomes has revived in recent years only a few empirical studies provide direct evidence on this topic in this article the authors analyze the effect of monopsony power on pay structure using a direct measure of labor market thinness the authors find evidence of monopsony power as firms facing fewer local competitors offer lower wages to skilled labor and trainees but not to unskilled labor the findings have important implications for the economic theory of training as most recent models assume monopsonistic pay setting for skilled labor but not for trainees

what do economists know an empirical study of experts expectations for more than three decades economic columnist joseph a livingston has canvassed a panel of economists twice a year eliciting their six month and twelve month forecasts for more than a dozen key variables this study analyzes whether the experts predictions are unbiased and whether complete use was made of all relevant known information unbiasedness and completeness being necessary conditions for fully rational expectations little bias was found in either the half year or full year predictions but extensive underutilization of information particularly data on monetary growth occurred to prophecy is extremely difficult especially with respect to the future chinese proverb do economists expectations regarding key price and nonprice variables utilize all known relevant information in an unbiased efficient manner this is a worthy subject for research for several reasons properties of experts predictions likely form an upper bound for those of laymen further as john muth 14 has noted the character of dynamic processes is typically very sensitive to the way expectations are influenced by the actual course of events p 316 hence we need to know precisely how events do affect expectations finally the common practice of replacing a variable s generally unobserved expectation with a proxy based on its past values will be unbiased and will not cause bias in other

equity and tradeoffs in a tax based incomes policy a tax based incomes policy tip is a tax incentive that tries to induce employers and or workers to reduce wage and or price increases it is intended as a complement to the basic anti inflation policy of gradual monetary deceleration and fiscal restraint its purpose is to reduce the capital stock and output loss that would otherwise accompany such a policy see my 1978 1979a articles this article is divided into two sections section i examines the capital stock and output loss under monetary deceleration that is uncomplemented by tip this loss is due primarily to wage growth inertia a central feature of modern capitalist economies such inertia provides not only the rationale for a tip on wage increases but also implies that special effort is required to assure that the design of a complete tip package is fair to labor section ii analyzes the tradeoffs confronting two alternative methods of making tip more equitable to labor profit and or price restraint insurance and a tip on price increases of the largest firms the original tip limited to wage increases at first glance is often perceived as unbalanced and inequitable this section tries to contribute to the development of a balanced equitable tip

are foreign trained nurses perfect substitutes for u s trained nurses the authors investigate whether foreign and u s trained nurses are substitutes by studying the differences in their wages and whether wage differentials respond to relative supplies of foreign and u s trained nurses regression estimates suggest that foreign trained nurses without a bachelor s degree enjoy a wage premium of 1 to 3 over similar u s trained nurses after adjusting for demographic workplace work type and geographic differences but no wage difference remains among those with a bachelor s degree for all nurses combined the wage difference is modest and statistically insignificant this result suggests that foreign and u s trained nurses are equally productive and close substitutes the authors also test explicitly for whether foreign and u s trained nurses are substitutes and cannot reject the hypothesis that they are

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection

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