deviations from purchasing power parity in the long run this paper demonstrates that deviations from purchasing power parity reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data since this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper proposes an alternative explanation which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism this paper will demonstrate that deviations from purchasing power parity ppp reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible exchange rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper therefore proposes an alternative explanation which does not presuppose free trade in goods but which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism the major implication of the theory and the results is that ppp is as likely to be violated in the long as in the short run as an empirical matter deviations from ppp can be observed for most currencies at any instant see kravis et al 21 stockman 37 and genberg 15 among others these deviations are typically both cumulative and persistent the real exchange rate can remain on either side of parity for lengthy but variable time intervals of a year or more as a consequence the current consensus shared

money supply announcements and interest rates another view in this paper i use a new approach to analyze the impact of money supply announcements on the bond market before 1980 the only available work on this subject consisted of a few unpublished papers by conrad 1978 sivesind 1978 and urich 1979 1 more recently published papers by grossman 1981 and urich and wachtel 1981 have appeared roley 1982 extends the grossman study to incorporate data after the federal reserve policy statement of october 6 1979 both grossman and urich and wachtel are primarily concerned with the question of money market efficiency using survey data made available by money market services of san francisco and data on treasury bill yields each finds that the market responds quickly to unanticipated changes in the money supply but that anticipated changes have no effect on interest rates in addition grossman finds that when he adds other variables such as past changes in the money

the pricing of forward contracts for foreign exchange this paper investigates the nature of observed deviations from the unbiased expectations hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market if these deviations are due to risk premia then the same premia should be observed in nominal bonds denominated in different currencies this condition imposes testable restrictions on the parameters of a multivariate regression model the empirical results are consistent with a world in which time varying risk premia cause the observed deviations from unbiased expectations

an international arbitrage pricing model with ppp deviations an internation al arbitrage pricing model with ppp deviations i introduction there is a growing literature examining the implications of purchasing power parity ppp deviations in international asset pricing models this literature typically assumes that residents of a country deflate nominal returns by their national price index in order to determine real returns in this setting stochastic ppp deviations imply that the real return on an asset differs internationally this international difference in real returns has forced authors to make important simplifying assumptions in order to derive international asset pricing models solnik 1974 develops an international capital asset pricing model icapm assuming no inflation and no correlation between ppp deviations and local real returns his model is extended by sercu 1980 to permit correlation between exchange rates and local real returns and by kouri and de macedo 1978 to allow for nonstochastic inflation this paper abandons the icapm approach in order to price assets in a setting of stochastic inflation rates stochastic ppp deviations and correlation between ppp deviations and real asset returns without imposing concomitant restrictions on agents utility functions 1 the paper extends ross s 1976 arbitrage pricing theory to an international environment with ppp deviations it improves upon solnik s 1983 and ross and walsh s 1983 international arbitrage pricing models iapm by i allowing both stochastic inflation and stochastic ppp deviations ii demonstrating how returns may be translated into any nominal or real numeraire and iii emphasizing the dynamic nature of international asset pricing in addition the model specifies risk the price of risk and the translation of these variables between all nominal and real numeraires as functions of the model s fundamental state variables this yields testable restrictions not found in domestic arbitrage pricing models apm 2 after deriving an iapm with ppp deviations this paper uses the model to examine the forward exchange market s riks premium the model s state variables determine the stochastic structure of ppp deviations and national price levels which in turn define the dynamics of risk and the price of risk the analysis demonstrates the potentially central role of ppp deviations in determining the evolution of forward exchange risk premia since the source of the bias between forward and future spot exchange rates has not bee convincingly identified and since ppp deviations have not been highlighted in studies of this bias future empirical investigations concerning the systematic discrepancies between forward and future spot exchange rates should incorporate ppp deviations 3 the model s equations are discussed in section ii section iii derives an intertemporal iapm with ppp deviations demonstrates how to translate risk and the price of risk into any nominal or real numeraire using the model s state variables and identifies testable restrictions not found in the domestic apm section iv derives and examines the forward exchange market s risk premium and section v presents a brief summary ii the model the world economy consists of n 1 countries each with its own currency currency 0 is arbitrarily chosen as the nominal numeraire every investor is able to issue and purchase assets in any country through freely floating international exchange markets it is assumed that country i has n sub i assets and the total number of assets mathematical expression omitted is much larger than the number of countries n 1 for convenience the first n 1 assets are nominally riskless in local currency terms so that asset o is country o s nominally riskless asset although all goods are available in each country residents of country i can consume only goods purchased in country i

the relationship between relative prices and the general price level it is very nearly a truismi amaong neoclassical economists that the public is wont to confuse changes in the general price level with relative price changes correspondingl y one might speak of the independence between the two as one of the central postulates of the neoclassical tradition william stanley jevons was aml ong the first to identify this basic dichotomin economic life as well as to attempt to explain the ordinary citizen s seenming incapacity to understand it

why there are organized futures markets i shall present an explanation of the existence of organized futures markets with more predictive power than the two prevailing rival views my explanation briefly is this an organized futures market facilitates trade among strangers one of the rival prevailing views is a defense of futures trading it asserts that an organized futures market furnishes legitimate businessmen with a means of hedging so that they can obtain insurance against price risk the other prevailing view is an attack on organized futures markets it asserts that such markets enable speculators to manipulate prices to the detriment of outsiders who are less well informed and to the detriment of legitimate businessmen such as farmers the attack on organized futures markets likens them to gambling casinos the defense sees them as a form of insurance neither the attack nor the defense is valid the correct explanation is closely related to why we conduct trade using money instead of by barter

tax policy and urban development evidence from the indiana enterprise zone program abstract this paper analyzes the effect of the indiana enterprise zone ez program on local employment and investment using a panel of local taxing jurisdictions as in other ez programs indiana s incentives favor capital relative to labor but the target of the capital incentive is unusual the stock of inventories using various estimation methods i estimate that zone designation initially reduces the value of depreciable personal property by about 13 percent but also reduces unemployment claims in the zone and surrounding community by 19 percent the value of inventories in indiana zones is 8 percent higher than it would be without the program

a quantitative reassessment of the purchasing power parity hypothesis evidence from norway and the united kingdom summary annual data from norway and the united kingdom from 1874 to 1971 are used to reassess the empirical performance of the purchasing power parity ppp doctrine the simple version of the ppp relationship is supported by the data only if different short run dynamics during a floating rate period 1914 1928 is allowed for two sets of factors were found to be important in amending the simple ppp model these were short run cyclical variables affecting the adjustment towards the ppp equilibrium relationship and long run structural factors such as productivity and terms of trade within this expanded model the proportionality between the exchange rate and relative price levels could not be rejected

was it real the exchange rate interest differential relation over the modern floating rate period in this paper we explore the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials in the united states germany japan and the united kingdom contrary to theories based on the joint hypothesis that domestic prices are sticky and monetary disturbances are predominant we find little evidence of a stable relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates we consider both in sample and out of sample tests one hypothesis that is consistent with our findings is that real disturbances such as productivity shocks may be a major source of exchange rate volatility this paper investigates the empirical relationship between major currency real exchange rates and real interest rates over the modern post march 1973 flexible rate experience the exchange rates examined here include the dollar mark dollar yen and dollar pound rates our two major findings are as follows first the data do not indicate a strong correspondence between real interest rate differentials short term or long term and real exchange rates this finding appears to conflict with the predictions of most monetary and portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination though the conflict can be substantially reconciled if aggregate disturbances are primarily real in nature i e changes in productivity tastes etc it is true that in many cases the sign of the estimated exchange rate interest rate differential relationship is consistent with the possible predominance of financial market disturbances but the relationship is not stable enough to be statistically significant second although one does find some evidence of a unit root in both real exchange rates and long term but not shortterm real interest differentials these two series do not appear to be linearly cointegrated hence the nonstationarity or near nonstationarity in the two series cannot be attributed to the same factor in section i we briefly describe a class of small scale monetary models of exchange rate determination the importance of this class of models for empirical work derives from its strong predictions about how the exchange rate will move

the effects on output of money growth and interest rate volatility in the united states in october 1979 the federal reserve began a policy of disinflation and also stopped stabilizing interest rates subsequently interest rates became much more volatile using a methodology advanced by barro this paper estimates what this change in policy did to output in the united states the paper finds that the stagnation of the u s economy since 1979 stemmed almost as much from increased interest rate volatility as from reduced money growth the paper also assesses the extent to which increased volatility of money growth has contributed to stagnation it finds no evidence of any appreciable contribution the paper concludes that stabilizing interest rates is probably sensible monetary policy

local economic development agglomeration economies and the big push 100 years of evidence from the tennessee valley authority we study the long run eects of one of the most ambitious place based economic development policies in u s history the tennessee valley authority using a rich panel dataset of counties we conduct an evaluation of the dynamic eects of the tva on local economies in the seventy years following the program s inception we nd that the tva led to short run gains in agricultural employment that were eventually reversed while impacts on manufacturing employment continued to intensify well after the program s subsidies had lapsed a pattern consistent with the presence of strong agglomeration economies in the manufacturing sector economists have long cautioned that the local gains created by place based policies may be oset by losses elsewhere yielding ambiguous eects on the u s as a whole building on the framework in glaeser and gottlieb 2008 we develop a novel approach to assessing the aggregate consequences of shifting the spatial distribution of manufacturing employment our ndings suggest the aggregate productivity gains associated with relocating manufacturing activity to the tva region were probably minimal

second best institutions the focus of reforms in the developing world has moved from getting prices right to getting institutions right this reflects the recognition that markets are unlikely to work well in the absence of a predictable and legitimate set of rules that support economic activity and dis pense its fruits governance reforms have become the buzzword for bilateral donors and multilateral institutions in much the same way that liberalization privatization and stabiliza tion were the mantras of the 1980s but what kind of institutions should reform ers strive to build it is easier to list the func tions that good institutions perform than it is to describe the shape they should take desirable institutions provide security of property rights enforce contracts stimulate entrepreneurship foster integration in the world economy maintain macroeconomic stability manage risk taking by financial intermediaries supply social insurance and safety nets and enhance voice and account ability but as the variety of institutional forms that prevail in the advanced countries themselves suggests richard freeman 2000 peter hall and david soskice 2001 each one of these ends can be achieved in a large number of different ways rodrik 2007a

international asset pricing with time varying risk premia abstract recent empirical evidence that forward exchange rates are biased predictors of future spot rates can also be interpreted as evidence against the hypothesis of a constant risk premium consequently reconciliation of this evidence with efficient international capital markets requires the existence of time varying risk premia this paper modifies kouri s 1977 asset pricing model to allow time varying exected returns on assets eliminates the assumption of a risk free real asset and derives the characteristics of the risk premia in the forward market as well as the equilibrium yield relationships among the equities and riskless nominal bonds of all countries

an examination of uncovered interest rate parity in segmented international commodity markets we examine the effect of segmented commodity markets on the relation between forward and future spot exchange rates in a dynamic economy we calculate the slope coefficient in our theoretical economy from regressing exchange rate changes on forward premia with reasonable parameter values the slope coefficient is less than unity however even for extreme parameters the slope is not less than zero as found in the data a negative slope coefficient in a nominal version of the model requires the covariance between monetary shocks and relative output shocks to be significantly negative in contrast to the covariance in the data one of the most studied relations in international finance is that between forward exchange rates and future spot rates empirical tests typically find that when one regresses changes in spot rates on forward premia the slope coefficient is less than one and often negative this result is called the forward bias anomaly and implies that the returns from investing in forward exchange contracts are predictable our objective is to examine the effect of segmentation of international commodity markets on the relation between the forward premium and the change in the spot rate segmentation of commodity markets is modeled by introducing a cost for transferring goods across countries giving rise to deviations from purchasing power parity ppp in this article we first derive the theoretical implications of the effect of segmentation on the forward bias in a dynamic general equilibrium model and then analyze a calibrated version of the model our analysis serves as a useful benchmark to study how much of the predictable deviations from uncovered interest parity uip can be explained by endogenous deviations from ppp

an empirical inquiry into the nature of the forward exchange rate bias abstract this paper tests whether anticipated real exchange rate movements fully account for the systematic time varying discrepancies between forward and future spot exchange rates the data do not reject this hypothesis the results demonstrate that 1 real exchange rate changes are predictable 2 anticipated real exchange rate changes are reflected in the forward bias and 3 information available at the signing of the forward contract is useless in forecasting differences between forward and future spot prices beyond the information s ability to predict real exchange rate changes the results emphasize the importance of real exchange rates in international asset pricing

risk and parity in purchasing power deviations from purchasing power parity in efficient markets are often attributed to time varying risk premiums some models have also identified the risk premiums to be the expected real interest rate differentials this paper shows that risk premiums generally are not equal to ex ante real rate differentials empirically the author finds risk premiums to be better than ex ante real rate differentials in accounting for deviations from purchasing power parity in addition both the risk premiums and the deviations from purchasing power parity respond proportionately to a single common factor copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

inflation real returns and capital investment we find evidence for the hypothesis of mundell 1963 and tobin 1965 that the expected real return component of interest rates is negatively related to the expected inflation component in the mundell tobin model the variation in expected real returns is caused by the variation in expected inflation our evidence suggests however that the variation in expected real returns is more fundamentally an outcome of the capital expenditures process equilibrium expected real returns vary directly with capital expenditures in order to induce equilibrium allocations of resources between consumption and investment this positive relation between expected real returns and real activity which comes out of the real sector combines with a negative relation between expected inflation and real activity which is traced to the monetary sector thus inducing the negative relation between expected inflation and expected real returns predicted by mundell and tobin but explained in terms of a model much different from theirs

flexible exchange rates prices and the role of news lessons from the 1970s recent experience with flexible exchange rate systems has led to renewed interest in the operation of foreign exchange markets as reflected in many recent studies of the principal determinants of exchange rates the 1970s witnessed the dramatic alteration of the international monetary system from a regime of pegged exchange rates which prevailed for about a quarter of a century since the bretton woods conference into a regime of flexible though managed rates as a consequence of the emergence of the new legal and economic system traders national governments and international organisations were confronted with new economic problems choices and instruments during the 1970s ex change rates fluctuated widely and inflation rates accelerated the international monetary system had to accommodate extraordinarily large oil related shocks which affected trade flows in goods and assets huge oil payments had to be recycled uncertainties concerning future developments in international politics reached new heights and the prospects for the world economy got gloomier these developments placed unprecedented pressures on the markets for foreign exchange as well as on other asset markets they were associated with a large slide in the value of the us dollar and resulted in speeding up the creation of new institutions like the european monetary system which provided the formal framework for the management of exchange rates among members

information aggregation inflation and the pricing of indexed bonds using daily prices of indexed bonds between 1970 and 1979 we test whether announcements of the israeli cpi contain information that is not already reflected in bond prices the results indicate that bond prices reflect about 85 percent of the new information about inflation as it occurs i e when the central bureau of statistics samples prices the announcement of the cpi 15 days after the end of the sampling period causes the remaining 15 percent adjustment in bond prices this evidence raises questions about the empirical importance of misperceptions about inflation as a source of nonneutrality in monetary policy

futures markets and the fluctuations in inflation monetary growth and asset returns inflation and nominal interest rates have been volatile in recent years futures contracts in price indices would help in this environment by enhancing information about prices and by providing a convenient means for people to hedge against inflation there is some evidence that the availability of these instruments would encourage investment and reduce the mean real rate of return on long term bonds indexed bonds which are now significant in britain serve a similar purpose in the absence of such bonds there would be a market for price index futures although the volume of trading would probably be modest this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the determination of the real exchange rate the productivity approach abstract this paper explains deviations of exchange rates from purchasing power parity with the differences between countries of the relative growth rates of labor productivity between traded and nontraded sectors two cases are considered germany and japan versus their respective major trading partners the results show that the time series methodology yields a more favorable confirmation of the productivity differential model than the cross section regressions in the literature

what explains the risk premium in foreign exchange returns abstract we decompose excess returns to holding foreign exchange into components associated with deviations from real interest rate parity and purchasing power parity respectively we find that deviations from purchasing power parity account for over 80 percent of the predictable variation in excess returns to holding foreign exchange in the period 1974 1989 and that deviations from real interest rate parity play a relatively minor role jel f31 g12 g15

a comparison of inflation forecasts interest rate models provide slightly better monthly forecasts and substantially better eight and fourteen month forecasts of inflation than a univariate time series model the livingston surveys underestimate eight and fourteen month inflation rates especially during the high inflation period of 1978 81 in contrast eight and fourteen month inflation forecasts extrapolated from one month interest rates show little bias and track ex post eight and fourteen month inflation rates better than the survey forecasts

assessing the incidence and efficiency of a prominent place based policy abstract this paper empirically assesses the incidence and efficiency of round i of the federal urban empowerment zone ez program using confidential microdata from the decennial census and the longitudinal business database using rejected and future applicants to the ez program as controls we find that ez designation substantially increased employment in zone neighborhoods and generated wage increases for local workers without corresponding increases in population or the local cost of living the results suggest the efficiency costs of first round ezs were relatively modest jel h26 h77 j31 r23 r58

market government and malaysia s new economic policy leading economic institutions such as the world bank have argued that liberalisation holds the key to growth poverty alleviation and redistribution even recent efforts to model increasing returns within the framework of new growth theories have not resulted in prescriptions for stronger roles for governments the fast growing southeast asian economies are still being used to demonstrate causation between liberalisation and growth poverty alleviation and redistribution using malaysia as an example this paper argues that growth poverty alleviation and redistribution in the country was achieved under circumstances of both interventionist policies as well as market coordination throughout the new economic policy nep period 1970 90 strong incentives were offered to both the import substitution and exportoriented manufacturing sectors and the state made strong forays into the market to redress poverty and inequality the paper also argues that poorly coordinated government intervention generated substantial unproductive rent seeking

the employment impact of poland s special economic zones policy abstractin 1994 poland launched a special economic zones experiment to maintain employment structures outside the major cities using difference in difference estimations this paper evaluates whether the policy has been successful in its primary objective which is to sustain employment in gminas communes more likely to be negatively affected by the economic transition a significant and positive effect of the policy on employment is documented but with some negative spillovers at the policy level as zones start to spread rapidly accounting for covariates timing policy spillovers and reducing imbalance through matching the average treatment effect for employment is estimated to be 60

money and price dispersion in the united states this paper reports an empirical test of a price dispersion equation using data on the u s after world war ii the equation derived elsewhere from a version of the partial informationlocalized market models relates price dispersion to the magnitude of the aggregate shocks in order to test the model a price dispersion series is computed using annual wholesale price indexes and weights for the period 1948 76 the data on money shocks are the unanticipated money growth series estimated by barro the tests also include a measure of aggregate real disturbances from the theoretical point of view the results are negative they do not detect an effect of money shocks on price dispersion but support the predicted effect of real shocks

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection