substitution in the electric power industry an interregional comparison in the eastern us abstract the electric power industry is restructuring as regulations move from states to regional and national levels estimates of regional fuel and input substitution are essential for practitioners and policy makers this paper estimates substitution under static and dynamic scenarios examining changes in technology and total factor productivity from 2001 to 2008 two stage estimation reveals regional characteristics and underlying elements in fuel and factor choice processes substitution varies widely depending on the region coal technology capital investment and r d activities

the effect of deregulation on us fossil fuel substitution in the generation of electricity abstract fossil fuels produce the majority of electricity in the us with coal being by far the most popular fuel used in the past regulation in the natural gas market in the form of well head price controls and under the boiler fuel use restrictions distorted fuel use away from natural gas more recently with deregulation in the natural gas industry these restrictions have been repealed which has changed fuel use patterns to measure the short run fuel use response from regulatory and other market changes we estimate interfuel substitution using two flexible functional forms the translog and the logit on monthly data from 1991 to 1993 in both models we find coal demand has the least elastic price response while gas and oil demand have the highest both models also suggest there is substitution across fuels in the short run but the patterns and magnitudes vary from comparisons with earlier studies fuel use price response is also found to vary across market conditions and regulatory regime

integrating methods for ecosystem service assessment and valuation mixed methods or mixed messages a mixed method approach was used to assess and value the ecosystem services derived from the dogger bank an extensive shallow sandbank in the southern north sea three parallel studies were undertaken that 1 identified and quantified where possible how indicators for ecosystem service provision may change according to two future scenarios 2 assessed members of the public s willingness to pay for improvements to a small number of ecosystem services as a consequence of a hypothetical management plan and 3 facilitated a process of deliberation that allowed members of the public to explore the uses of the dogger bank and the conflicts and dilemmas involved in its management each of these studies was designed to answer different and specific research questions and therefore contributes different insights about the ecosystem services delivered by the dogger bank this paper explores what can be gained by bringing these findings together post hoc and the extent to which the different methods are complementary findings suggest that mixed method research brings more understanding than can be gained from the individual approaches alone nevertheless the choice of methods used and how these methods are implemented strongly affects the results obtained

the generalized multinomial logit model accounting for scale and coefficient heterogeneity the mixed or heterogeneous multinomial logit mixl model has become popular in a number of fields especially marketing health economics and industrial organization in most applications of the model the vector of consumer utility weights on product attributes is assumed to have a multivariate normal mvn distribution in the population thus some consumers care more about some attributes than others and the iia property of multinomial logit mnl is avoided i e segments of consumers will tend to switch among the subset of brands that possess their most valued attributes the mixl model is also appealing because it is relatively easy to estimate recently however some researchers have argued that the mvn is a poor choice for modelling taste heterogeneity they argue that much of the heterogeneity in attribute weights is accounted for by a pure scale effect i e across consumers all attribute weights are scaled up or down in tandem this implies that choice behaviour is simply more random for some consumers than others i e holding attribute coefficients fixed the scale of their error term is greater this leads to a scale heterogeneity mnl model s mnl here we develop a generalized multinomial logit model g mnl that nests s mnl and mixl by estimating the s mnl mixl and g mnl models on 10 data sets we provide evidence on their relative performance we find that models that account for scale heterogeneity i e g mnl or s mnl are preferred to mixl by the bayes and consistent akaike information criteria in all 10 data sets accounting for scale heterogeneity enables one to account for extreme consumers who exhibit nearly lexicographic preferences as well as consumers who exhibit very random behaviour in a sense we formalize below

comparing costs of living across world cities this paper compares costs of living across world cities the international comparison program icp reports price levels across world economies in its calculation of purchasing power parity through

breaking into tradables urban form and urban function in a developing city many cities in developing economies particularly in africa are experiencing urbanization without industrialization this paper conceptualizes this in a framework in which a city can produce non tradable goods and if it is sufficiently competitive also internationally tradable goods potentially subject to increasing returns to scale a city is unlikely to produce tradables if it faces high urban and hinterland demand for non tradables or high costs of urban infrastructure and construction the paper shows that if there are increasing returns in tradable production there may be multiple equilibria the same initial conditions can support dichotomous outcomes with cities either in a low level non tradable only equilibrium or diversified in tradable and non tradable production the paper demonstrates the importance of history and expectations in determining outcomes essentially a city can be built in a manner that makes it difficult to attract tradable production this situation might be a consequence of low and self fulfilling expectations or history the predictions of the model are consistent with several observed features of african cities

how deliberation affects stated willingness to pay for mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions an experiment respondents reported willingness to pay wtp for mitigating carbon dioxide emissions after structured group discussion or without this deliberation deliberation did not affect mean or median wtp but it increased the number of issues respondents considered with some issues becoming more frequently considered and others less survey only respondents considered issues relevant for responding to a request for a charitable contribution group mode participants considered issues relevant for a public policy assessment findings suggest that ordinary citizens can offer valid input to environmental policy decisions but that framing effects in ordinary wtp surveys may prevent them from providing such input

is coal desulphurisation worthwhile evidence from the market abstract the paper develops a forward looking way to estimate the economic benefits of research and development on coal desulphurisation the methodology makes use of survey based techniques pioneered in environmental economics the empirical results illustrate the difficulty of configuring desulphurised coal to meet the requirements of existing electricity generating plants in addition to estimating the returns to investment in coal desulphurisation the contributions of the paper are in extending survey based valuation to meet the needs of r d investors for intelligence about the prospective value of their investments and using robust estimation techniques to reduce the influence of outliers

biophysical causality and environmental preference elicitation evaluating the validity of welfare analysis over intermediate outcomes stated preference scenarios often describe outcomes to be valued in terms of intermediate biophysical processes or ecosystem services with indirect utility effects rather than in terms of final directly welfare relevant consequences this article evaluates whether valid welfare estimates can emerge from this practice we begin with a theoretical model demonstrating conditions under which stated preference scenarios that include intermediate outcomes will elicit welfare estimates identical to those from parallel scenarios that include associated final outcomes i e convergent validity will hold the model demonstrates that a necessary condition for convergent validity is the ability of respondents to correctly predict biophysical production functions linking intermediate to final outcomes hypotheses from the theoretical model are then evaluated empirically using an application of choice experiments to migratory fish restoration in the u s state of rhode island empirical results are mixed but generally reject convergent validity welfare estimates are not robust to the use of an intermediate outcome in lieu of a related final outcome in stated preference scenarios as predicted by theory results of the analysis suggest that greater attention should be given to the reliability of welfare estimation when final outcomes cannot be quantified

elasticity of substitution and technical efficiency evidence from the us electricity generation abstractthe implications of national or regional energy policies for technical efficiency and environmental outcomes in electricity generation depend on fossil fuel input substitution this study u

information effects in contingent markets information bias in contingent markets is poorly understood in this paper testable hypotheses concerning beneficial contingent market information effects are developed conceptually perspective information and relative expenditure information were expected to increase comprehension and increase bids provision cost information was expected to counteract free riding behavior and also increase bids hypothesis tests using experimental markets suggested that each information type induced small statistically insignificant bid increases however the combined effect of the three information types induced a desirable statistically significant increase in bids this result supports the contention that not all contingent market information effects are biases

individualized geocoding in stated preference questionnaires implications for survey design and welfare estimation this paper evaluates the common practice of generic mapping in stated preference valuation in which identical policy area maps are shown to all respondents this is compared to a more information intensive alternative in which individualized maps identify the location of each respondent s home relative to policy effects the evaluation is grounded in a theoretical model clarifying the impact of individualized spatial information on preferences for non market outcomes the model is illustrated using an application of choice experiments to riparian restoration in coastal maine results characterize valuation contexts for which valid preference elicitation likely requires the provision of individualized spatial information

enhancing the content validity of stated preference valuation the structure and function of ecological indicators stated preference surveys often provide ambiguous descriptions of ecological commodities yielding welfare estimates that have unclear interpretations and cannot be linked to measurable outcomes this paper proposes guidelines to promote ecological content validity in survey scenarios and defensible use of ecological information for welfare analysis these guidelines are illustrated through an application to migratory fish restoration content validity is evaluated vis a vis norms for communication of ecological changes in the ecological literature findings suggest that less structured treatment of ecological commodities may lead to an omission of information that is relevant to respondents and essential for valid welfare estimation

the demand for residential industrial and total electricity 1973 1998 this paper estimates residential industrial and total electricity demand by a partial adjustment approach and by a simultaneous equation approach simultaneous equation models are more appropriate since they provide negative price elasticity estimates for the residential industrial and total electricity samples flow adjustment models yield positive price elasticity estimates in some cases suggesting they fail to identify proper supply considerations that may be influencing prices the simultaneous equation approach suggests that residential customers are more price sensitive than industrial customers weather seems to have the greatest impact on the residential sector and cold weather appears to affect demand more than hot weather

interfuel substitution in us electricity generation ongoing changes in the us electricity market include restructuring and increased competition with this unfettering of the market the fuel choice in generation is expected to become more flexible and responsive to investigate this hypothesis studies of us electricity fuel choices over the last three decades are summarized and the most recent analysis is provided on a market very different from the one on which earlier studies were done modern data handling techniques allow the consideration of the most comprehensive database including 185 utilities on monthly data for 1993 this paper finds fuel choice to show a considerable amount of price responsiveness the amount of responsiveness is sensitive to the fuel substitution possibilities within the utility and the amount of responsiveness seems to have increased recently for oil and natural gas

the value of familiarity effects of knowledge and objective signals on willingness to pay for a public good we design and conduct a field experiment in which treated subjects receive a precise and objective signal regarding their knowledge about a public good before estimating their wtp for it we find that the causal effect of objective signals about the accuracy of a subject s knowledge for a public good can dramatically affect their valuation for it treatment caused a significant increase of 85 129 in wtp for well informed individuals we find no such effect for less informed subjects our results imply that wtp estimates for public goods are not only a function of true information states of the respondents but beliefs about those information states

a discrete continuous choice approach to residential water demand under block rate pricing reply waldman is quite correct in noting that the microeconomic theory of block rate pricing in hewitt and hanemann hh 1995 is given for the general case of a k block rate structure whereas the econometric theory is largely confined to the case of exactly two blocks the extension in waldman to the more general case of k blocks is correct although the extension itself could be even more general if it addressed the nonnegativity of demand as is demonstrated below that no apparent attention was paid to the nonnegativity of demand in hh may be attributed to the fact that the need to do so was negated by a fortuitous assumption in the earlier work although that assumption that the errors are multiplicative and lognormally distributed was only maintained and not tested in hh i now estimate two models with the more common assumptions of linear demand and additive and normally distributed errors both with and without a modification for

a dynamic analysis of interfuel substitution for swedish heating plants abstract this paper estimates a dynamic model of interfuel substitution for swedish heating plants we use the cost share linear logit model developed by considine and mount considine t j mount t d 1984 the use of linear logit models for dynamic input demand systems review of economics and statistics 66 434 443 all estimated own price elasticities are negative and all cross price elasticities are positive the estimated dynamic adjustment rate parameter is small however increasing with the size of the plant and time indicating fast adjustments in the fuel mix when changing relative fuel prices the estimated model is used to illustrate the effects of two different policy changes

substitution between clean and dirty energy inputs a macroeconomic perspective in macroeconomic models the elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy inputs within the energy aggregate is a central parameter in assessing the necessary conditions for long run green growth using new sectoral data in a panel of 26 countries we formulate specifications of nested constant elasticity of substitution production functions that allow estimating this parameter for the first time we present evidence that it significantly exceeds unity a favorable condition for promoting green growth

what are the consequences of ignoring attributes in choice experiments implications for ecosystem service valuation this paper investigates the sensitivity of choice experiment values 3al for ecosystem services to attribute non attendance we consider three cases of attendance namely that people may always sometimes or never pay attention to a given attribute in making their choices this allows a series of models to be estimated which addresses the following questions to what extent do respondents ignore attributes in choice experiments what is the impact of alternative strategies for dealing with attribute non attendance can respondents reliably self report non attendance do respondents partially attend to attributes and what are the implications of this our results show that allowing for the instance of sometimes attending to attributes in making choices offers advantages over methods employed thus far in the literature

climate change adaptation a study of fuel choice and consumption in the us energy sector abstract using cross sectional data this paper estimates a national energy model of fuel choice by both households and firms consumers in warmer locations rely relatively more heavily on electricity rather than natural gas oil and other fuels they also use more energy climate change will likely increase electricity consumption on cooling but reduce the use of other fuels for heating on net american energy expenditures will likely increase resulting in welfare damages that increase as temperatures rise for example if the us warms by 5 c by 2100 we predict annual welfare losses of 57 billion

utility in willingness to pay space a tool to address confounding random scale effects in destination choice to the alps we compare two approaches for estimating the distribution of consumers willingness to pay wtp in discrete choice models the usual procedure is to estimate the distribution of the utility coefficients and then derive the distribution of wtp which is the ratio of coefficients the alternative is to estimate the distribution of wtp directly we apply both approaches to data on site choice in the alps we find that the alternative approach fits the data better reduces the incidence of exceedingly large estimated wtp values and provides the analyst with greater control in specifying and testing the distribution of wtp copyright 2008 oxford university press

electric utilities fuel use and responsiveness to fuel prices this research tests the impact of changes in fuel price to explain fuel use by electric utilities we employ a three stage least squares model that explains changes in fuel use as a function of changes in three fuel prices this model is repeated across sub samples of data aggregated at the plant level and operating holding company level we expect that plants and holding companies reduce fuel use when fuel prices rise several fuel substitution effects within and across plants and holding companies are demonstrated as well as several frictions at the plant level higher prices of natural gas lead to less natural gas consumption less coal consumption and more fuel oil consumption at the operating holding company level results demonstrate the inelasticity of coal use and the increases of natural gas in response to higher coal prices subsamples demonstrate heterogeneity of results across different plants results emphasize that technological market and regulatory frictions may hinder the performance of energy policies

the impact of the automatic adjustment clause on fuel purchase and utilization practices in the u s electric utility industry the purpose of this paper is to examine the combined influence of the search and switching effects of the automatic fuel adjustment clause on the prices paid by utilities for the aggregate fuel input then given this combined effect an attempt is made to separate the individual influences of the two component effects findings indicate that the presence of an automatic fuel adjustment clause leads the regulated firm to pay a higher price for the aggregate fuel input than would be paid in the absence of the clause the severity of this aggregate fuel input than would be paid in the absence of the clause the severity of this aggregate fuel price differential is estimated to be on the order of 6 cents 10 sup 6 btu or approximately 10 of the average fossil fuel price moreover this aggregate effect is found to result from the induced disincentive to switch to less expensive fuels rather than the payment of higher prices for the individual component fuels 21 references 5 tables

the developing world is poorer than we thought but no less successful in the fight against poverty a new data set on national poverty lines is combined with new price data and almost 700 household surveys to estimate absolute poverty measures for the developing world we find that 25 of the population lived in poverty in 2005 as judged by what poverty typically means in the world s poorest countries this is higher than past estimates substantial overall progress is still indicated the corresponding poverty rate was 52 in 1981 but progress was very uneven across regions the trends over time and regional profile are robust to various changes in methodology though precise counts are more sensitive

why are services cheaper in the poor countries in their important work on international comparisons of national incomes and of comparative price structure kravis heston and summers i982 p 8 have noted that services are much cheaper in the relative price structure of a typical poor country than in that of a rich country this phenonomen has been documented now fairly systematically by the data gathered under their guiding hand of the united nations international comparison icp which covers 34 countries table i reproduced from their work i982 and fig i based on rows 3 and ii 13 indeed show this tendencyfor the relationship between relative service prices and real per capita gdp in this kravis heston summers 34 country 6 group sample the tendency is strongly evident except for the intermediate groups iii and iv

regional differences in nuclear and fossil fuel generation of electricity previous research on electric gen eration costs has mainly relied on economy wide data this study disaggregates a broad sample into regions known to have marked differences in fossil fuel availability climate regulatory ef fects and other variables we find differences exist in generation costs among the studied re gions and nuclear power using estimates of scale economies and other measures we also find smaller minimum efficient size fossil fuel firms than previous studies based on recent cost information this study provides insights into several industry structure issues such as capac ity expansion competition input costs environ mental policy and transmission access jel q42

willingness to pay for agricultural land preservation and policy process attributes does the method matter this article examines relationships between willingness to pay for land preservation and policy process attributes the approach departs from traditional welfare assessments in that it does not constrain attributes of the policy process to be utility neutral results indicate policy process attributes may influence utility in some circumstances even after controlling for the influence of land use outcomes often correlated with specific policy techniques results further imply that in some cases even comprehensive specification of land use outcomes by stated preference instruments may be insufficient to prevent systematic shifts in willingness to pay related to unspecified yet assumed policy process attributes

perceptions versus objective measures of environmental quality in combined revealed and stated preference models of environmental valuation abstract this study examines perceptions and objective attribute measures in discrete choice models of recreation site choice behavior these forms of attribute measurement are examined in individual and combined revealed preference stated preference models our results suggest that the model based on perceptions slightly outperforms the models based on objective attribute measures however issues such as the definition of the choice set and the measurement of welfare present significant challenges when using perceptions data

non market valuation in integrated assessment modeling the benefits of water right retirement abstract the impact of resource management on natural capital value depends on processes that affect resource stocks over space and time we develop an integrated assessment modeling framework that links econometric estimates of non market benefits from a resource stock to a spatially explicit model of resource dynamics results from a dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey are used to estimate a marginal willingness to pay function for groundwater which has no market we use the model to measure the economic benefits to agricultural producers of a program that pays for water right retirement under the baseline scenario without water right retirement the benefits from groundwater stocks in the study region decline in value by 3 6 million over 15 years because of groundwater depletion water right retirement leads to groundwater benefits that are 0 55 million higher than in the baseline after 15 years but benefits vary greatly over space comparing this to an explicit program cost of 45 million suggests that other social benefits from groundwater stocks must exist to justify the program from a benefit cost perspective valuing the economic benefits from increasing natural capital stocks can inform policy and provide insight into the value of management in resource and environmental systems

indices of biotic integrity in stated preference valuation of aquatic ecosystem services stated preference surveys often give minimal attention to distinctions between intermediate and final ecosystem services leading to the potential for welfare estimates that overlook misrepresent or double count associated values this paper illustrates potential mechanisms through which multimetric indexes of the type developed in the ecological literature here an index of biotic integrity can be used within stated preference survey scenarios to both improve the validity of survey responses and provide otherwise unavailable information on willingness to pay for intermediate and final ecosystem services we illustrate the approach using a choice experiment application to the restoration of migratory fish in a rhode island watershed where assumptions of the model hold results can allow transparent disentanglement and estimation of marginal values for both intermediate and final ecosystem services

structural determinants of real exchange rates and national price levels some empirical evidence contrary to the long held notion of purchasing power parity ppp economists have found systematic evidence that the general level of prices across countries at a point in time varies dramatically irving b kravis alan w heston and robert summers 1982 for example report that some countries national price levels are no more than one third the u s price level extensions of this work show that such departures from ppp have persisted for decades recently efforts have been made to explain systematically these persistent or structural departures from ppp pioneering work by kravis and robert e lipsey 1983 1987 1988 has demonstrated that a positive correlation between the price level and real per capita gross domestic product is robust across numerous cross sectional specifications for instance using data from kravis et al 1982 table 6 12 87 percent of the variation in national price levels pl of 21 countries in 1975 is explained by per capita gdp y and a constant

fuel switching and climate and energy policies in the european power generation sector a generalized leontief model abstract the purpose of this paper is to analyze a the role and the nature of price induced switching behavior between fossil fuels i e coal oil and natural gas in the western european power sector as well as b the fuel choice impacts of a number of public policies implemented in this sector during the last 20 years the analysis is conducted within a generalized leontief cost function framework and employs pooled data across eight countries over the time period 1978 2004 we present short run own and cross price elasticities of fossil fuel demand and assess the impacts of a set of government policies implemented over this time period the empirical results show evidence of notable short run interfuel substitution between oil and gas and particularly in countries where fossil fuels are used extensively for both base and peak load purposes these findings support the notion that ex post fossil fuel substitution takes place in dual and multi fired plants by switching load between different single fuel fired plants as well as through the conversion of power plants to be able to burn alternate fuels the results also illustrate that different public policies i e removal of coal subsidies electricity market liberalization etc have had profound impacts on fossil fuel choices and have in particular favored power generation gas use at the expense of coal finally the paper makes use of the empirical results to simulate the fuel switching impacts of different carbon prices within the european emissions trading scheme eu ets

a pooled dynamic analysis of interfuel substitution in industrial energy demand by the g 7 countries a dynamic version of considine s 1990 linear logit model is used to obtain theoretically consistent estimates of long run price elasticities from pooled intercountry data on industrial energy consumption this model also provides a rare direct estimate of the important rate of dynamic adjustment revealing a median lag of ten years the long run demands for oil and coal are the most elastic and the strongest channels for interfuel substitution are between oil and natural gas with no significant evidence of complementarity between fuels

firing the furnace an econometric analysis of utilities fuel choice abstract this paper attempts to estimate how the fuel mix of german electricity producers does react to fuel price changes the empirical analysis is based on panel data 1968 1998 of major utilities two different aspects of fuel choice are distinguished at the one hand the construction of usually fuel specific capacities for electric power generation i e investment decisions that determine the fuel mix in the long run at the other fuel use conditional on existing generation capacities i e short run inter fuel substitution according to the results from panel unit root tests both the econometric models which describe these two aspects are specified in changes rather than levels the partly discrete nature of investment decisions is taken into account by constructing a discrete model of capacity adjustment our estimation results suggest that the fuel mix of electric utilities is price inelastic either if long term investment or short term inter fuel substitution is considered finally the empirical results are used to predict the potential impacts of co 2 emissions trading on fuel choice in the german electric power industry

attribute causality in environmental choice modelling when selecting attributes in environmentalchoice modelling studies preference should begiven to those attributes that aredemand relevant policy relevant andmeasurable the use of these criteria willoften result in a short list of environmentalattributes of which some are causally related the inclusion of attributes that have a cause effect relationship may stimulate somerespondents to seek to understand the causalrelations among attributes in order to assigngreater meaning to the alternatives andpotentially simplify the decision makingprocess this may have implications for theweights they assign to each of the attributeswhen identifying the preferred alternatives and subsequently for the implicit prices and orwelfare estimates a test of the impact ofincluding an attribute that causesimpacts on ecosystem health as well as anattribute relating to ecosystem health effectson parameter estimates implicitprices and welfare estimates is conducted twoquestionnaires are developed one with the causal attribute included and one without acomparison of results indicates that when the causal attribute is included in the vector ofchoice attributes the implicit value of asingle endangered species falls by 34 per centwhilst no significant difference is detected inthe parameter estimates importantly however estimates of compensating surplus for a givenpolicy package do not differsignificantly across the two treatments thisimplies that to the extent that the inclusionof a causal attribute reduces the implicitprices for one or more of the effect attributes the associated loss in utility isapproximately offset by the utility nowassociated with the new attribute

designing conjoint choice experiments using managers prior beliefs abstract the authors provide more efficient designs for conjoint choice experiments based on prior information elicited from managers about the parameters and their associated uncertainty the authors use a bayesian design procedure that assumes a prior distribution of likely parameter values and optimizes the design over that distribution the authors propose a way to elicit prior information from managers and show in monte carlo studies that the procedure provides more efficient designs than the current procedures the authors provide an empirical application in which they elicit prior information on the parameter values and the associated uncertainty from managers here the bayesian design provides 30 50 lower standard errors of the estimates and an expected predictive validity that is approximately 20 higher

the effects of the corporate average fuel efficiency standards in the us this paper examines the effects of the corporate average fuel economy standards cafe on automobile sales prices and fuel consumption first a discrete choice model of automobile demand and a continuous model of vehicle utilization are estimated using micro data from the consumer expenditure survey for 1984 1990 next the demand side model is combined with a model of oligopoly and product differentiation on the supply side with these elements in place the effects of the cafe regulation are assessed through simulations and compared to the effects of alternative policy instruments such as an increase in gasoline tax

mobility and the return to education testing a roy model with multiple markets self selected migration presents one potential explanation for why observed returns to a college education in local labor markets vary widely even though u s workers are highly mobile to assess the impact of self selection on estimated returns this paper first develops a roy model of mobility and earnings where workers choose in which of the 50 states plus the district of columbia to live and work available estimation methods are either infeasible for a selection model with so many alternatives or place potentially severe restrictions on earnings and the selection process this paper develops an alternative econometric methodology that combines lee s 1983 parametric maximum order statistic approach to reduce the dimensionality of the error terms with more recent work on semiparametric estimation of selection models e g ahn and powell 1993 the resulting semiparametric correction is easy to implement and can be adapted to a variety of other polychotomous choice problems the empirical work which uses 1990 u s census data confirms the role of comparative advantage in mobility decisions the results suggest that self selection of higher educated individuals to states with higher returns to education generally leads to upward biases in ols estimates of the returns to education in state specific labor markets while the estimated returns to a college education are significantly biased correcting for the bias does not narrow the range of returns across states consistent with the finding that the corrected return to a college education differs across the u s the relative state to state migration flows of college versus high school educated individuals respond strongly to differences in the return to education and amenities across states

the economics of fuel choice at us electric utilities abstract this paper compares and contrasts results obtained from estimating fossil fuel cost shares in the generation of electricity in the usa from two models one national and one regional while the national model provides acceptable first order results correct signs and magnitudes of critical parameters it is the regional model that reveals the underlying economics of this fuel choice problem results which hold consistently across regions and across fuels are more plausible than those which are found to be special cases in each region of the country or for each fuel type

deriving and testing efficient estimates of wtp distributions in destination choice models estimation of welfare measures is often a dominant driver in the empirical literature on nonmarket valuation to this end qualitative choice models based on random utility theory have been widely employed in outdoor recreation studies a frequent goal of applied studies has been the estimation of welfare changes associated with site attribute changes at recreation sites in order to inform regulatory policy and resource management we review the evolution of the methodology of random utility theory in this field with a focus on taste heterogeneity models and then focus on the recent proposal of specifying utility in the wtp space train k weeks m 2005 discrete choice models in preference space and willing to pay space in scarpa r alberini a eds applications of simulation methods in environmental and resource economics chapter 1 springer dordrecht pp 1 16 our empirical application is on outdoor alpine recreation data we emphasize the efficiency and direct testing that using the maximum simulated likelihood estimator affords to practitioners using the wtp space approach and illustrate these with examples

valuing wetland attributes an application of choice experiments abstract the interest for wetlands is increasing not only because of the possibility of a cost efficient uptake of nutrients but also because wetlands can be designed to provide other services what values that are supplied depend largely on the design there are numerous different design options and different actors may promote different alternatives whether we want to design a wetland for nutrient retention alone or one that also serves other interests policy makers need information about the value of different options conducting a choice experiment we are able to identify attributes that increase and decrease citizens perceived value of wetlands using a random parameter model we find that biodiversity and walking facilities are the two greatest contributors to welfare while a fenced waterline and introduction of crayfish decrease welfare

how people respond to contingent valuation questions a verbal protocol analysis of willingness to pay for an environmental regulation abstract this paper investigates what a respondent is thinking when answering a willingness to pay question in a contingent valuation using a think aloud technique from psychology called verbal protocol analysis the willingness to pay responses we observed seem to be constructed from a variety of considerations including an obligation to pay a fair share of the cost of the solution and signaling concern for a larger set of environmental issues the finding that respondents seem to construct their values at the time they are asked rather than reporting a more well defined value is seen as consistent with over two decades of research on the psychology of decision making potential uses of verbal protocols in contingent valuation studies are also discussed

information and effort in contingent valuation surveys application to global climate change using national internet samples this contingent valuation study investigates the issues of information access and respondent effort and is based on a series of national internet samples the focus is on a split sample treatment basic information bi versus enhanced information ei in the latter significantly expanded information is provided about global climate change and the kyoto protocol using a referendum format we compare the treatment effect bi versus ei on willingness to pay wtp we develop measures of respondent effort in accessing optional information through the technology of web based surveys and jointly model effort and wtp using a simultaneous estimation approach results support the use of the joint modeling approach for objective measures of respondent effort and wtp respondent effort is shown to be positively and significantly related to wtp however use of the optional menu is rather modest counts of pages and time spent and is highly variable both across pages and respondents

a bayesian approach to assessing the robustness of hedonic property value studies hedonic price models are widely employed to estimate implicit prices for bundled attributes residential property value studies dominate these applications using a representative cross sectional property value data set we employ bayesian methods to translate a range of priors in covariate selection typical of hedonic property value studies into a range of posterior estimates we also formulate priors regarding measurement error in individual covariates and compute the ranges of resulting posterior means finally we empirically demonstrate that a greater and more systematic use of prior information drawn from one s own data and from other studies can break the collinearity deadlock in this data

the effects of experience on preferences theory and empirics for environmental public goods this article develops a choice model for environmental public goods which allows for consumers to learn about their preferences through consumption experiences we develop a theoretical model of bayesian updating perform comparative statics over the model and show how the theoretical model can be consistently incorporated into a reduced form econometric model our main findings are that in a random utility model rum discrete choice model a subject s scale should increase and the variability of scale should decrease with experience if subjects are bayesians we then estimate the model using field data regarding preferences for one particular public good water quality we find strong evidence that additional experience increases scale thereby making consumer preferences more predictable from the econometrician s perspective we find supportive but less convincing evidence that experience decreases the variability of scale across subjects

preferences for site and environmental functions when selecting forthcoming national parks abstract a political decision to establish the first ever national parks in denmark allowed us to examine if people hold preferences regarding which site to be designated as national park separate from the preferences for its environmental functions to this end we designed a choice experiment representing the national park alternatives by the possible site and the possible improvements in environmental functions results revealed that respondents have strong preferences for the establishment of a national park per se furthermore there are significant differences in taste parameters for the different sites which cannot be explained by respondents valuing the different functions differently across sites instead we explain the results with differences in regional and cultural preferences we also performed a balanced split sample test of anchoring effects and found clear evidence of this we included a zero bidder screening question prior to the choice set part of the survey instrument to improve wtp estimation

fossil fuel flexibility in west european power generation and the impact of system load factors this paper analyzes short run interfuel substitution in west european power generation and the impact of system load factors on fossil fuel choice the problems are studied within a restricted translog cost share model the paper concludes that interfuel substitution in existing power plants is substantial especially that between oil and gas this is consistent with the notion that short run fuel substitution takes place in dual or multi fired plants by switching load between different single fired plants and by some conversions of power plants to be able to burn alternate fuels the empirical investigation also indicates that the system load factor is a notable determinant of fossil fuel choices in west europe and the paper ends with an assessment of the fuel consequences of some load management schemes in the region

heterogeneous preferences regarding global climate change we examine the structure of preferences for mitigating impacts of global climate change that will not occur during the lifetimes of most who are alive today because no market data exist for such distant markets a statedpreference approach is used the analysis is based on the random parameters logit model and the results indicate substantial heterogeneity in respondent preferences that mean willingness to pay is a significant and increasing function of the scope of the impact and provocatively that respondents have the same preferences over the two very different time horizons that we consider e examine the structure of preferences for mitigating impacts of global climate change that will not occur during the lifetimes of most who are alive today studies using current market data have estimated the potential costs of climate change on agriculture mendelsohn nordhaus shaw 1994 and on other aspects of measured production nordhaus 1994 but market data can not reveal the willingness of those currently alive to pay for measures to mitigate impacts that may not happen for 100 years or more there is serious public discussion involving diplomats at the highest levels about measures to mitigate emissions that would cost the united states alone 100 to 200 billion dollars annually therefore estimating the willingness of those currently alive to pay for mitigation measures is not a fanciful exercise but rather a crucial effort to determine how much mitigation should be undertaken it is the preferences of those alive today regarding acceptable levels of climate impacts and not the unknowable preferences of those who do not yet exist that will ultimately determine how much mitigation we pursue in the next quarter century as this question cannot be answered with market data we use the stated preference sp approach and elicit preferences for preventing climate change induced impacts a host of climate change impacts have been enumerated this study focuses on one type of impact that may be important but has received little attention from economists scientists have predicted that widespread ecosystem shifts may accompany changes in climate vemap 1995 ecosys tem shifts are likely to evolve slowly indicating that lost use values are likely to be small for those alive today yet the public may still be willing and asked to pay for mitigation measures that are designed to slow the transformation of ecosystems the current debate over climate change demon strates two things the first is that some people do care about long term changes that will never affect them or perhaps even their children the second is that preferences regarding the impacts of climate change are very heterogeneous as other members of the public appear much less concerned long term horizons combined with heterogeneous prefer ences makes ecosystem shifts a useful place to begin analyzing preferences for mitigating climate change im pacts a stated preference survey was designed that asked respondents to choose their most preferred program to reduce ecological impacts from a set menu of five or six different programs the programs varied in terms of costs the degree of ecosystem change and in the mitigation method four different menus provided to each respondent yielded four distinct valuation responses section ii de scribes the random parameters logit model for repeated choices that allows for a flexible correlation structure based on heterogeneous preferences the ecosystem change and the stated preference survey are discussed in section iii in section iv we estimate the random parameters model and estimate the willingness to pay to prevent various levels of ecosystem change section v concludes with a discussion of how the scope of the impact preference heterogeneity and the time horizon affect willingness to pay

what to value and how ecological indicator choices in stated preference valuation the ecological literature accepts that many policy outcomes cannot be observed directly and must be characterized using indicators multiple indicators can often be used to communicate similar ecological outcomes previous studies using alternative indicators in stated preference surveys suggest that welfare estimates may be indicator dependent casting doubt on whether welfare estimates are sufficiently reliable for cost benefit analysis we suggest that the reason for such indicator dependence may be that indicators used in these prior studies represented different outcomes valued by respondents this possibility underscores the need for greater attention to selection of indicators and their properties within stated preference survey design this paper develops a model introducing the concept of outcome equivalent indicators defined as indicators that provide alternative representations of identical underlying outcomes to assess empirically whether welfare estimates are indeed robust to indicator choice when alternative indicators are expected to be outcome equivalent we analyze data from a choice experiment estimating willingness to pay for migratory fish restoration in rhode island usa results demonstrate that welfare estimates are robust to the use of alternative ecological indicators within stated preference scenarios

distributional effects of alternative vehicle pollution control policies abstract previous work shows that policies that subsidize new vehicles and tax size miles or gasoline efficiently reduce pollution less is known about their distributional effects this paper examines distributional effects by estimating the joint demand for vehicles and miles using the consumer expenditure survey greater price responsiveness among low income households enhances progressivity of gas or miles taxes across lower incomes and mitigates regressivity across upper incomes taxes on engine size or subsidies to new vehicles are significantly more regressive than gas or miles taxes

rural amenity values and length of residency new residents of rural communities are often assumed to have preferences for development and conservation that differ from those of longer term residents however the literature offers little to quantify presumed preference heterogeneity this article assesses whether stated preferences differ according to length of residency results are based on a conjoint choice experiment survey of rhode island rural residents heterogeneity according to length of town residency is modeled using dummy variables multiplicative interactions and lagrangian interpolation polynomials results are compared across the three models and identify a range of attributes for which willingness to pay depends on length of residency