improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over reaction to price movements abstract we examine the impact of price trends on the accuracy of forecasts from prediction markets in particular we study an electronic betting exchange market and construct independent variables from market price odds time series from 6058 individual markets a dataset consisting of over 8 4 million price points using a conditional logit model we find that a systematic relationship exists between trends in odds and the accuracy of odds implied event probabilities the relationship is consistent with participants over reacting to price movements in particular in different time segments of the market increasing and decreasing odds lead respectively to under and over estimation of odds implied probabilities we develop a methodology to detect and correct the erroneous forecasts associated with these trends in odds in order to considerably improve the quality of forecasts generated in prediction markets

equality employment and budgetary restraint the trilemma of the service economy this article presents an analysis of the postindustrial economy from a political economy perspective it identifies a set of specific distributional trade offs associated with the new role played by the services sector as the chief source of employment growth in advanced democracies over the last three decades it is argued that three core policy objectives budgetary restraint wage equality and expansion of employment constitute a political trilemma that allows only two of the goals to be successfully pursued at the same time using a combination of statistical and case oriented analysis the authors demonstrate the political and economic salience of the trilemma the distributional tensions inherent in each strategy to cope with it and the political institutional constraints under which these strategies are chosen

party systems and electoral volatility in latin america a test of economic institutional and structural explanations three different theoretical explanations are tested for the exceptionally high level of electoral volatility found in contemporary latin america economic voting institutional characteristics of political regimes and party systems and the structure and organization of class cleavages a pooled cross sectional time series regression analysis is conducted on 58 congressional elections and 43 presidential elections in 16 latin american countries during the 1980s and 1990s institutional variables have the most consistent effect on volatility while the influence of economic performance is heavily contingent upon the type of election and whether the dependent variable is operationalized as incumbent vote change or aggregate electoral volatility the results demonstrate that electoral volatility is a function of short term economic perturbations the institutional fragilities of both democratic regimes and party systems and relatively fluid cleavage structures

strong planning and forecast horizons for a model with simultaneous price and production decisions abstract in this paper we have solved a general inventory model with simultaneous price and production decisions both linear and non linear strictly convex production cost cases are treated upper and lower bounds are imposed on state as well as control variables the problem is solved by using the lagrangian form of the maximum principle strong planning and strong forecast horizons are obtained these arise when the state variable reaches its upper or lower bound the existence of these horizons permits the decomposition of the whole problem into a set of smaller problems which can be solved separately and their solutions put together to form a complete solution to the problem finally we derive a forward branch and bound algorithm to solve the problem the algorithm is illustrated with a simple example

transfer pricing in a dynamic marketing operations interface abstract a transfer price mechanism is proposed to coordinate the strategies of the marketing and operations functional areas operating in a dynamic interface environment in a decentralized firm marketing and operations are strategic decision makers in a differential game in which marketing has price and advertising and operations has production as control variables and advertising goodwill and production backlog are state variables a constant transfer price is entered into the objective functionals for marketing and operations and subgame perfect feedback strategies are derived for price advertising and production as functions of the state variables the feedback strategies allow a solution for the dynamic system involving goodwill and backlog and the total payoff to the firm the sum of the payoffs to marketing and operations is determined as a function of the transfer price finally for certain parameter conditions an interior maximum of the payoff function is achieved and the optimal transfer price is identified

the sources of business interest in social insurance sectoral versus national differences when and why have employers supported the development of institutions of social insurance that provide benefits to workers during various employment related risks the analysis developed in this article challenges the dominant explanations of welfare state development which are premised on the assumption that business opposes social insurance the article examines the conditions under which self interested profit maximizing firms support the introduction of a new social policy and it specifies the most significant variables explaining the variation in employers social policy preferences the model is tested in three political episodes of welfare state development in france and germany using policy documents submitted by various employers associations to bureaucratic and parliamentary commissions

racing to the bottom or climbing to the top economic globalization and collective labor rights this article explores the impact of economic globalization on workers rights in developing countries the authors hypothesize that the impact of globalization on labor rights depends not only on the overall level of economic openness but also on the precise ways in which a country participates in global production networks using a new data set on collective labor rights the authors test these expectations their analysis of the correlates of labor rights in 90 developing nations from 1986 to 2002 highlights globalization s mixed impact on labor rights as climb to the top accounts suggest foreign direct investment inflows are positively and significantly related to the rights of workers but at the same time trade competition generates downward race to the bottom pressures on collective labor rights the authors also find that domestic institutions and labor rights in neighboring countries are important correlates of workers rights

dependency revisited international markets business cycles and social spending in the developing world while increased exposure to the global economy is associated with increased welfare effort in the organization for economic cooperation and development oecd the opposite holds in the developing world these differences are typically explained with reference to domestic politics tradables unions and the like in the developing world are assumed to have less power or interests divergent to those in the oecd interests that militate against social spending i claim that such arguments can be complemented with a recognition that developed and developing nations have distinct patterns of integration into global markets while income shocks associated with international markets are quite modest in the oecd they are profound in developing nations in the oecd governments can respond to those shocks by borrowing on capital markets and spending countercyclically on social programs no such opportunity exists for most governments in the developing world most of which have limited access to capital markets in tough times more significant incentives to balance budgets and as a result cut social spending at the times it is most needed thus while internationally inspired volatility and income shocks seem not to threaten the underpinnings of the welfare state in rich nations it undercuts the capacity of governments in the developing world to smooth consumption and particularly consumption by the poor across the business cycle the author would like to thank steph haggard kristin bakke wongi choe tim jones and seminar participants at duke university penn state university washington university mit and the university of new mexico for their helpful comments nancy brune mark hallerberg and rolf strauch and nita rudra were very generous in providing their capital account oecd fiscal and potential labor power data respectively

global markets and national politics collision course or virtuous circle increasing exposure to trade foreign direct investment and liquid capital mobility have not prompted a pervasive policy race to the neoliberal bottom among the oecd countries one reason is that there are strong political incentives for governments to cushion the dislocations and risk generated by openness moreover countries with large and expanding public economies when balanced with increased revenues even from capital taxes have not suffered from capital flight or higher interest rates this is because the modern welfare state comprising income transfer programs and publicly provided social services generates economically important collective goods that are undersupplied by markets and that actors are interested in productivity value these range from the accumulation of human and physical capital to social stability under conditions of high market uncertainty to popular support for the market economy itself as a result arguments about the demise of national autonomy in the global economy are considerably overdrawn

investigating the sensitivity of equilibrium profits to advertising dynamics and competitive effects the author investigates the validity of the flat maximum principle the insensitivity of a firm s profits to changes in its optimal advertising level in a duopolistic market in which advertising by the two firms has carryover effects two alternative competitive scenarios are examined i in which total industry sales are allowed to vary over time and ii where firms are engaged in market share rivalry for i the open loop nash equilibrium advertising strategies for the firms are derived assuming a specific sales response function and an infinite time horizon a numerical analysis of the sensitivity of firms profit functions to advertising expenditures is performed at different levels of the a discount rate b advertising elasticity and c advertising decay rate an empirical illustration from the pharmaceutical industry is provided special cases of the model formulation are examined analytically in order to highlight the intuition behind the flatness of the maximum and to study the sensitivity of results obtained to choice of equilibrium strategy closed loop vs open loop for the market share game closed loop policies are considered and the flat maximum principle is illustrated in the context of coke pepsi rivalry in the soft drinks market

social protection and economic integration the politics of pension reform in an era of capital mobility in the past two decades of the 20th century governments around the world began to apportion greater responsibility for old age income provision to individuals and market forces through the privati

optimal production purchasing and pricing a differential game approach abstract this paper deals with a problem of determining optimal production and pricing policies of a manufacturing firm which is supplying a retailer the latter faces a price dependent demand function towards the final consumers and wishes to determine optimal purchasing and pricing policies both firms carry inventories and backlogging is permitted the problem is modelled as a two player nonzero sum differential game with the inventory levels as the state variables the controls are the rates of production and purchasing as well as the prices assuming linear production costs but convex ordering and holding costs open loop nash controls are characterized by using switching point analysis as well as phase diagrams

on modeling the advertising operations interface under asymmetric competition abstract using a market share attraction structure of advertising competition and following a supermodular game approach this article demonstrates for an asymmetric oligopoly the directional impact of changes in model parameters on the marketing controlled variables of all rivals advertising budgets and the operations controlled variables of all rivals ordered quantities importantly the various changes are examined analytically empirically and numerically in both non dominated and dominated asymmetric oligopolies in this regard the results indicate that firms in a dominated oligopoly one firm of market share larger than or equal to 50 behave differently compared to firms in a non dominated oligopoly each firm of market share less than 50 in response to changes in model parameters furthermore changes in model parameters are investigated in terms of their relative influential impact on a variety of equilibrium measures in this regard the findings indicate that for the analyzed model the marketing parameters exert much more influence on the equilibrium measures than the operations parameters additionally a change in the mode of competition from non cooperation oligopoly to cooperation joint ownership dictates that strong asymmetric firms of favorable marketing and operations parameters continue advertising but at lower levels and weak asymmetric firms of less favorable parameters cease advertising altogether

trade based diffusion of labor rights a panel study 1986 2002 this article investigates the nature of the linkages between trade and labor rights in developing countries specifically we hypothesize that a california effect serves to transmit superior labor standards from importing to exporting countries in a manner similar to the transmission of environmental standards we maintain that all else being equal the labor standards of a given country are influenced not by its overall level of trade openness but by the labor standards of its trading partners we evaluate our hypothesis using a panel of 90 developing countries over the period 1986 2002 and we separately examine the extent to which the labor laws and the actual labor practices of the countries are influenced by those of their export destinations we find that strong legal protections of collective labor rights in a country s export destinations are associated with more stringent labor laws in the exporting country this california effect finding is however weaker in the context of labor rights practices highlighting the importance of distinguishing between formal legislation and actual implementation of labor rights

the boundaries of multinational enterprises and the theory of international trade this paper begins with a review of empirical evidence on multinational firms conceptual underpinnings of a theory are developed relying in particular on the notion of knowledge capital as a mobile joint input into geographically separated production facilities this idea is embedded in a simple two country general equilibrium model that supports multinational production in equilibrium under conditions consistent with the empirical evidence the final section examines internalization and shows why certain properties of knowledge capital also imply a preference for transferring technologies internally within the firm rather than through arm s length markets

remodeling the competition for capital how domestic politics erases the race to the bottom this paper proposes and tests a new formal model of the competition for capital using the analogy of a tournament as a substitute for the race to the bottom model our key insight is that political costs that accompany legislating have both direct and indirect effects on the likelihood and scale of reforms while countries with higher political costs are less likely themselves to enact reforms the presence of these costs also reduces competing countries incentives to reform regardless of their own political costs domestic politics therefore mitigates the pressures for downward convergence of tax policy despite increased capital mobility we examine the capital tax policies in oecd countries during the period from 1980 to 1997 and find that states are sensitive to tax reforms in competitor countries although their responses to reforms are mediated by their own domestic costs to reform we define two potential sources of political costs of reform transaction costs due to the presence of multiple veto players in the legislative process and constituency costs due to ideological opposition to policy changes that benefit capital our evidence reveals that a reduction in these costs either domestically or abroad increases the likelihood that a country enacts tax reforms hat are the policy consequences of the elimination of various barriers to international capital and labor mobility robert frost in mending wall instructed that good fences make good neighbors scholars have increasingly expressed this sentiment s converse i e the pessimistic viewpoint that as the mobility of factors of production increases international competition assumes a beggar thy neighbor character when fences separate countries and make it difficult for factors of production to move from country to country governments can operate essentially as monopolistic suppliers of services governments can extract a price from the owners of productive resources in the form of taxes or can place regulatory restrictions on production without fear that factors of production will emigrate when the fences fall and governments must compete with each other for the same resources a state s or country s ability to tax or regulate diminishes in the extreme countries lose sovereignty over domestic policymaking e g andrews 1994 and lee and mckenzie 1989 the model that most scholars employ implicitly or explicitly to understand international or interstate competition is known commonly by its central prediction the race to the bottom e g oates 1972

stochastic dynamic pricing and advertising in isoelastic oligopoly models abstract in this paper we analyze stochastic dynamic pricing and advertising differential games in special oligopoly markets with constant price and advertising elasticity we consider the sale of perishable as well as durable goods and include adoption effects in the demand based on a unique stochastic feedback nash equilibrium we derive closed form solution formulas of the value functions and the optimal feedback policies of all competing firms efficient simulation techniques are used to evaluate optimally controlled sales processes over time this way the evolution of optimal controls as well as the firms profit distributions are analyzed moreover we are able to compare feedback solutions of the stochastic model with its deterministic counterpart we show that the market power of the competing firms is exactly the same as in the deterministic version of the model further we discover two fundamental effects that determine the relation between both models first the volatility in demand results in a decline of expected profits compared to the deterministic model second we find that saturation effects in demand have an opposite character we show that the second effect can be strong enough to either exactly balance or even overcompensate the first one as a result we are able to identify cases in which feedback solutions of the deterministic model provide useful approximations of solutions of the stochastic model

coordination mechanisms of supply chain systems supply chain management scm has become an important management paradigm as supply chain members are often separate and independent economic entities a key issue in scm is to develop mechanisms that can align their objectives and coordinate their activities so as to optimize system performance in this paper we provide a review of coordination mechanisms of supply chain systems in a framework that is based on supply chain decision structure and nature of demand this framework highlights the behavioral aspects and information need in the coordination of a supply chain the identification of these issues points out several directions of future research in this area

workers rights in open economies global production and domestic institutions in the developing world previous large n research suggests that globalization could have either positive or negative consequences for labor rights in developing nations this article examines the ways in which domestic political institutions and interests conditions the effects of economic globalization it develops several hypotheses regarding the impact of domestic factors on labor rights outcomes and uses the case of costa rica to assess these hypotheses the result is that although segments of the costa rican economy and labor force have benefited from industrial upgrading in recent years the enclave nature of the export oriented economy and the historical repression of organized labor render difficult the achievement of some internationally recognized core labor rights the article concludes by discussing some of the issues for future research that are highlighted by the costa rican case

globalization and the right to free association and collective bargaining an empirical analysis summary economies that are more open to trade and foreign direct investment fdi face greater competitive pressure than closed ones globalization critics are concerned that this pressure induces countries to lower labor standards in order to remain competitive and retain or attract foreign investment defenders of globalization counter that countries that are more closely integrated into global markets are likely to have higher rather than lower standards this article tests the effect of globalization on a specific labor right which forms part of what are commonly regarded as core or fundamental labor standards employing a new measure of free association and collective bargaining rights we find that countries that are more open to trade have fewer rights violations than more closed ones this effect holds in a global sample as well as in a developing country sub sample and holds also when potential feedback effects are controlled via instrumental variable regression the extent of an economy s penetration by fdi has no statistically significant impact globalization might not be beneficial for outcome related labor standards but it is likely to promote the process related standard of a right to free association and collective bargaining

competitive and cooperative inventory policies in a two stage supply chain we investigate a two stage serial supply chain with stationary stochastic demand and fixed transportation times inventory holding costs are charged at each stage and each stage may incur a consumer backorder penalty cost e g the upper stage the supplier may dislike backorders at the lower stage the retailer we consider two games in both the stages independently choose base stock policies to minimize their costs the games differ in how the firms track their inventory levels in one the firms are committed to tracking echelon inventory in the other they track local inventory we compare the policies chosen under this competitive regime to those selected to minimize total supply chain costs i e the optimal solution we show that the games nearly always have a unique nash equilibrium and it differs from the optimal solution hence competition reduces efficiency furthermore the two games equilibria are different so the tracking method influences strategic behavior we show that the system optimal solution can be achieved as a nash equilibrium using simple linear transfer payments the value of cooperation is context specific in some settings competition increases total cost by only a fraction of a percent whereas in other settings the cost increase is enormous we also discuss stackelberg equilibria

testing the bargaining hypothesis in the manufacturing sector in developing countries the bargaining power model of hc mnc host country multinational corporation interaction conceives of economic nationalism in terms of rational self interest and assumes both inherent conflict and convergent objectives in extractive industries there is strong evidence that outcomes are a function of relative bargaining power and that as power shifts to developing hcs over time the bargain obsolesces a cross national study of the bargaining model using data from 563 subsidiaries of u s manufacturing firms in forty nine developing countries indicates that while the bargaining framework is an accurate model of mnc host country relationships manufacturing is not characterized by the inherent structurally based and secular obsolescence that is found in the natural resource industries shifts in bargaining power to hcs may take place when technology is mature and global integration limited in industries characterized by changing technologies and the spread of global integration the bargain will obsolesce very slowly and the relative power of mncs may even increase over time

politics and inequality in latin america and the caribbean this article presents the first pooled time series analysis of the impact that politics and policy have on inequality in latin america and the caribbean the authors build on models consisting of sociological and economic variables adding the strength of the democratic tradition long term legislative partisan political power distribution and social spending to explain variation in inequality they analyze an unbalanced pooled time series data set for income distribution in 18 latin american and caribbean countries from 1970 to 2000 they show that the political variables add explanatory power a strong record of democracy and a left leaning legislative partisan balance are associated with lower levels of inequality as are social security and welfare spending under democratic regimes thus they replicate some and modify other well established findings from studies of organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries in the very different context of latin america and the caribbean

reversal of fortunes democratic institutions and foreign direct investment inflows to developing countries does increased democracy promote or jeopardize foreign direct investment fdi inflows to less developed countries we argue that democratic institutions have conflicting effects on fdi inflows on the one hand democratic institutions hinder fdi inflows by limiting the oligopolistic or monopolistic behaviors of multinational enterprises facilitating indigenous businesses pursuit of protection from foreign capital and constraining host governments ability to offer generous financial and fiscal incentives to foreign investors on the other hand democratic institutions promote fdi inflows because they tend to ensure more credible property rights protection reducing risks and transaction costs for foreign investors hence the net effect of democracy on fdi inflows is contingent on the relative strength of these two competing forces our argument reconciles conflicting theoretical expectations in the existing literature empirical analyses of fifty three developing countries from 1982 to 1995 substantiate our claims we find that both property rights protection and democracy related property rights protection encourage fdi inflows after controlling for their positive effect through property rights protection democratic institutions reduce fdi inflows these results are robust against alternative model specifications statistical estimators and variable measurements

probabilistic forecasting with discrete choice models evaluating predictions with pseudo coefficients of determination abstract probabilistic forecasts from discrete choice models which are widely used in marketing science and competitive event forecasting are often best evaluated out of sample using pseudo coefficients of determination or pseudo r 2 s however there is a danger of misjudging the accuracy of forecast probabilities of event outcomes based on observed frequencies because of issues related to pseudo r 2 s first we show that mcfadden s pseudo r 2 varies predictably with the number of alternatives in the choice set then we evaluate the relative merits of two methods bootstrap and asymptotic for estimating the variance of pseudo r 2 s so that their values can be appropriately compared across non nested models finally in the context of competitive event forecasting where the accuracy of forecasts has direct economic consequence we derive new r 2 measures that can be used to assess the economic value of forecasts throughout we illustrate using data drawn from uk and ireland horse race betting markets

globalization democracy and effective welfare spending in the developing world the literature on the effects of globalization on social policy and welfare and the parallel literature on the effects of democracy operate in mutual isolation to a surprising degree this article extends the debate on the welfare state in the developing world by examining the social policy reactions of democratic and authoritarian governments to globalization using unbalanced panel data on 57 developing nations and considering social security and health and education spending the authors examine whether democratic and authoritarian regimes exhibit similar or different social spending priorities in the context of increasing economic openness the results show that social spending in hard authoritarian regimes is more sensitive to the pressures of globalization than in democratic or intermediate regimes

the globalization of liberalization policy diffusion in the international political economy one of the most important developments over the past three decades has been the spread of liberal economic ideas and policies throughout the world these policies have affected the lives of millions of people yet our most sophisticated political economy models do not adequately capture influences on these policy choices evidence suggests that the adoption of liberal economic practices is highly clustered both temporally and spatially we hypothesize that this clustering might be due to processes of policy diffusion we think of diffusion as resulting from one of two broad sets of forces one in which mounting adoptions of a policy alter the benefits of adopting for others and another in which adoptions provide policy relevant information about the benefits of adopting we develop arguments within these broad classes of mechanisms construct appropriate measures of the relevant concepts and test their effects on liberalization and restriction of the current account the capital account and the exchange rate regime our findings suggest that domestic models of foreign economic policy making are insufficient the evidence shows that policy transitions are influenced by international economic competition as well as the policies of a country s sociocultural peers we interpret the latter influence as a form of channeled learning reflecting governments search for appropriate models for economic policy

globalization and capital taxation in consensus and majoritarian democracies this article contributes to the growing literature on the role that domestic political institutions play in mediating globalization pressures by arguing that the capital tax constraints arising from international economic integration are the most severe for countries with majoritarian political institutions in doing so the author solves a tax puzzle that challenges conventional thinking about how institutions condition the relationship between economic globalization and domestic politics he presents a formal game theoretic model to sharpen the basic logic of his argument and then tests some of the model s predictions empirically using both quantitative and qualitative evidence

optimal pricing and production in an inventory model abstract this paper deals with the problem of simultaneously determining the optimal price policy and production rate over a given planning horizon for nonlinear demand functions and convex inventory and shortage cost functions the optimal solution paths are derived by using optimal control theory the treatment of linear nonsmooth cost functions requires the use of a generalized maximum principle the solution method is a phase portrait analysis providing insight into the optimal pricing and production policies as well as the resulting inventory paths moreover it is shown that in the case of nonsmooth piecewise linear cost functions the equilibrium is approached within finite time although the model is nonlinear in the control variables finally it is illustrated that exogenous fluctuations in the demand rate seasonal demand pattern amount to cyclical optimal solutions

maquila economic reform and corporate strategies abstract corporate strategies in maquila have changed over time while they were originally geared only to the exploitation of low paid low skilled labor nowadays firms are upgrading human capital and increasing the scope and technological complexity of production processes the adoption of the new economic model in host countries aimed precisely at this type of strategy change but cannot solely be credited for it in addition policies regarding maquila under the nem did not achieve all the stated goals regarding corporate strategy change trends in local procurement and technology transfer are still unsatisfactory strengthening of local supply and absorption capabilities is required

a differential game model of the marketing operations interface in the development of their dynamic strategies the marketing and operations functions within a firm have differing objectives and conflict between the two functions is common the strategic interdependence involving marketing and operations decisions is modeled as a noncooperative differential game demand is assumed to be a function of price and advertising goodwill and marketing controls price and advertising to maximize its discounted stream of revenue net of advertising costs backlogging is allowed and operations controls production to minimize its discounted stream of production and backlog costs a feedback nash equilibrium is derived for the game which allows a solution of the system of differential equations for goodwill and backlog and is analyzed to study the nature of the dynamic strategies for price advertising and production

production inventory and pricing under cost and demand learning effects abstract the paper considers a monopolist firm that plans its production inventory and pricing policy over a fixed and finite horizon the problem is represented by an optimal control model which combines elements from three streams of literature the first of these is a classical or area and deals with optimal production and inventory under exogenously given demand conditions the second is an area of marketing science which studies dynamic pricing under demand learning effects demand learning refers to the situation where current demand for a product is influenced by past demand the third area belongs to microeconomics and industrial organization and is concerned with the effects of learning by doing in a firm s production process learning is reflected in a unit production cost that decreases with cumulative production using a path synthezising procedure we obtain closed form characterizations of optimal production pricing and inventory policies

the effects of capital mobility trade openness and democracy on social spending in latin america 1980 1999 empirical studies measuring the impact of globalization on social spending have appeared recently in leading journals this study seeks to improve upon previous work by 1 employing a more sophisticated and comprehensive measure of financial openness 2 using a more accurate measure of trade openness based on purchasing power parities and 3 relying on social spending data that are more complete than those used by previous studies on latin america our estimates suggest that several empirical patterns reported in previous work deserve a second look we find that trade openness has a positive association with education and social security expenditures that financial openness does not constrain government outlays for social programs and that democracy has a strong positive association with social spending particularly on items that bolster human capital formation t he international integration of markets for goods and services over the past two decades is unprecedented amidst a broader context of international integration latin america has experienced the most dramatic change in its economic policy orientation since world war ii few regions have undergone as rapid and thorough an economic transformation how has economic integration affected the social welfare policies of latin american governments has it forced them to reduce spending on social programs in order to compete in the world economy or has it induced them to provide social safety nets for those hurt by economic competition has democratization in latin america compelled governments to spend more on social programs in relatively open economies

prisoner s dilemma on behavioral choices in the presence of sticky prices farsightedness vs myopia abstract when making decisions in a dynamic environment myopic supply chain members tend to ignore the future effects of their decisions on the evolution of state dynamics by contrast far sighted decision makers consider about the impacts of current decisions on both current profits and future profits in order to study how behavioral choices affect the operation decisions and profits of supply chain members we develop a differential game with sticky prices where one manufacturer purchases components from one supplier and makes final products for end customers the supplier decides on its wholesale price while the manufacturer sets its production quantity either of supply chain members has two behavioral choices myopia and farsightedness we derive and compare equilibrium solutions under four different behavioral combinations our analysis shows that there always exists a prisoner s dilemma caused by behavioral choices farsightedness is a dominant strategy for either the supplier or the manufacturer but both to act myopically makes both of them better off furthermore comparing with other scenarios the whole supply chain obtains the highest profit when both players are myopic in addition we introduce a revenue sharing contract with static wholesale price to mitigate the adverse impacts of the prisoner s dilemma

openness and the politics of potable water improving access to potable water has become an increasingly urgent concern for developing nations in the current era of globalization according to standard wisdom if developing countries undertake certain domestic reforms such as investing in infrastructure and engineering then safe and clean drinking water will improve this analysis uncovers however that in addition to such domestic efforts one of the greatest factors affecting water uncertainty is in fact internationally induced trade surprisingly both scholars and practitioners have neglected the potential impacts of expanding trade on access to potable water this analysis is the first large n cross national study of water that focuses on the interplay of trade and politics both international and domestic as the primary driving forces behind improvements in or constraints to water access the author hypothesizes that growing export pressures are constraining drinkable water in poor countries but a particular domestic condition can mit

quality improvement vs advertising support which strategy works better for a manufacturer abstract we consider a marketing channel with a single manufacturer and a single retailer where both advertising and quality improvement contribute to the build up of goodwill in a non coop scenario the retailer controls the advertising efforts while the manufacturer controls the quality improvements and wholesale price although improving quality positively contributes to goodwill it also increases the production cost thereby reducing the manufacturer s profit in a coop scenario the manufacturer supports the retailer s advertising while decreasing his investments in quality we investigate the conditions under which a coop program is beneficial when such a trade off occurs our results demonstrate that only when advertising significantly contributes to goodwill the manufacturer has an incentive to cooperate and a coop program turns out to be pareto improving conversely the retailer is always better off with a coop program moreover the channel is operational and marketing driven when quality effectiveness is high independent of advertising effectiveness or when both quality and advertising effectiveness are large in all other cases the channel is marketing driven

globalization and the decline of the welfare state in less developed countries why have trends in government welfare spending in developing countries diverged from those in developed countries i address this question by investigating the effects of capital and trade flows on government welfare spending in fifty three developing countries using an original measure of labor power in developing countries i test the links between international markets labor s political strength and the welfare state i argue that labor s collective action problems caused by large populations of low skilled and surplus workers offset labor s potential political gains from globalization i show that when the proportion of low skilled workers in a nation is high globalization will lead to a decline in welfare spending most significantly the results suggest that in nations where labor market institutions are not yet well developed government social welfare spending is constrained by international market forces

globalization taxation and burden shifting in latin america most researchers interested in the relationship between global markets and public policy focus on advanced industrial democracies in contrast we examine competing hypotheses as to globalization s effect on governments by expanding the scope of the discussion to include developing nations more specifically we investigate the relationship between international market integration and the evolving burden of taxation on capital as well as the subsequent response of markets to shifts in tax policy in latin america since the late 1970s consistent with our theoretical expectations we find that global market forces are more constraining vis a vis tax policy in latin america than in the world s wealthiest nations despite these market based pressures however national politics continue to influence tax policy in latin america in a manner consistent with findings on advanced industrial democracies as such developing nations continue to have some room to manipulate policy though within the context of a more strictly neoliberal context than their counterparts in advanced industrial democracies

firm and country level trade offs and contingencies in the evaluation of foreign investment the semiconductor industry 1994 2002 this paper examines the joint impact of firm and country level factors on the international plant location decisions of semiconductor firms from 1994 2002 we find that these factors interact to influence the location decisions of firms investing abroad in a given host country firms with more advanced technological capabilities are more likely to make investments in countries with greater technological sophistication but not in politically hazardous countries where they face greater expropriation hazards firms with less advanced technology are more willing to accept a trade off between country level political hazards and technological sophistication firms also trade off own versus other firm experience as sources of critical knowledge regarding the foreign investment environment

recent developments in dynamic advertising research a variety of continuous time differential functions have been developed to investigate dynamic advertising problems in business and economics fields since major dynamic models appearing before 1995 have been reviewed by a few survey papers we provide a comprehensive review of the dynamic advertising models published after 1995 which are classified into six categories i nerlove arrow model and its extensions ii vidale wolfe model and its extensions iii lanchester model and its extensions iv the diffusion models v dynamic advertising competition models with other attributes and vi empirical studies for dynamic advertising problems for each category we first briefly summarize major relevant before 1995 models and then discuss major after 1995 models in details we find that the dynamic models reviewed in this paper have been extensively used to analyze various advertising problems in the monopoly duopoly oligopoly and supply chain systems our review reveals that the diffusion models have not been used to analyze advertising problems in supply chain operations which may be a research direction in the future moreover we learn from our review that very few publications regarding dynamic advertising problems have considered the supply chain competition we also find that very few researchers have used the diffusion model to investigate the dynamic advertising problems with product quality as a decision variable and the pricing decision has not been incorporated into any extant lanchester model the paper ends with a summary of our review and suggestions on possible research directions in the future

market share pioneering advantage a theoretical approach in this paper we present an industry in which a pioneer has entered accumulated capital in the form of goodwill and in his monopoly period has also reduced his cost of production as a result of some form of learning by doing at some later date a newcomer enters his production cost is higher than that of the monopolist at that date however due to diffusion of information the costs of the two firms equate at some future date once the new firm enters the market a duopolistic game begins in which the firms choose prices and investment rates analyzing this game we discover the conditions under which the final market shares no longer depend on the order of entry the initial cost advantage the length of the monopoly period or the length of time it took the newcomer to overcome the pioneer s cost advantage we analyze the speed and pattern of convergence to the final market shares and the capital path of the pioneer in his monopoly period depending on his beliefs concerning the possibility of entry

dynamic price competition with discrete customer choices abstract for many years dynamic pricing has proven to be an effective tool to increase revenue in the airline and other service industries most studies however focused on monopolistic models and ignored the fact that nowadays consumers can easily compare prices on the internet in this paper we develop a game theoretic model to describe real time dynamic price competition between firms that sell substitutable products by assuming the real time inventory levels of all firms are public information we show the existence of nash equilibrium we then discuss how a firm can adapt if it knows only the initial but not the real time inventory levels of its competitors we compare a firm s expected revenue under different information structures through numerical experiments

leftist parties neoliberal policies and reelection strategies the case of the pln in costa rica how do leftist parties in government abandon their traditional economic development programs adopt neoliberal policies and still win reelection this article examines the case of the leftist national liberation party pln in costa rica to explain this unexpected outcome the author argues that the explanation lies on two separate but related levels those of institutional rules and policy implementation strategies institutional rules constrain the behavior of political actors in multiple ways and structure political interaction however governments also employ specific policy implementation strategies e g obfuscation compensation division and incrementalism to adopt unpopular policies while reducing electoral costs as a result opposition to the reforms is more difficult to organize and potential negative consequences are difficult to identify for voters the institutional rules and the strategies that governments employ can account for the seeming paradox of a leftist party repeatedly abando