money and capital abstract the effects of money anticipated inflation on capital formation is a classic issue in macroeconomics previous papers adopt reduced form approaches putting money in the utility function or imposing cash in advance but using otherwise frictionless models we follow instead a literature that tries to be explicit about the frictions making money essential this introduces new elements including a two sector structure with centralized and decentralized markets stochastic trading opportunities and bargaining these elements matter quantitatively and numerical results differ from findings in the reduced form literature the analysis also reduces a gap between microfounded monetary economics and mainstream macro

are health insurance markets competitive to gauge the competitiveness of the group health insurance industry i investigate whether health insurers charge higher premiums ceteris paribus to more profitable firms such direct price discrimination is feasible only in imperfectly competitive settings using a proprietary national database of health plans offered by a sample of large multisite firms from 1998 2005 i find firms with positive profit shocks subsequently face higher premium growth even for the same health plans moreover within a given firm those sites located in concentrated insurance markets experience the greatest premium increases the findings suggest health care insurers are exercising market power in an increasing number of geographic markets

complexity and path dependence in biotechnology innovation systems in commercial applications of biotechnology there is no international convergence on many critical dimensions the united states is pulling ahead vis a vis most other developed or emerging countries in spite of the efforts made by the potential catching up nations the article argues that the explanation lies in the institutional fabric that fosters commercial biotechnology this institutional structure is too complex and costly it exists mainly in the united states and the followers either do not understand it or are trapped with more inefficient institutions the paper builds on biotechnology in order to theorize about institutions and their evolution in sectoral innovation systems it also applies concepts and models from complex system theory copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

supply side interventions and redistribution we evaluate the eect on welfare of shifting the burden of capi tal income taxes to labor taxes in a dynamic equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and constant tax rates we calibrate and simu late the economy we nd that lowering capital taxes has two eects i it increases e ciency in terms of aggregate production and ii it redistributes wealth in favor of those agents with a low wage wealth ratio when the parameters of the model are calibrated to match the distribution of income in terms of the wage wealth ratio the redis tributive eect dominates and agents with a high wage wealth ratio would experience a large loss in utility if capital income taxes were eliminated

the hidden persuaders institutions and individuals in economic theory in his classic book the hidden persuaders vance packard claimed that large corporations manipulated consumers using advertising techniques john kenneth galbraith and others have repeated a similar view against this gary becker and george stigler have claimed that advertising is essentially informative rather than manipulative in contrast it is argued here that both of these opposed accounts of human agency neglect the more subtle and undesigned processes by which institutions bear upon and mould individuals this paper proposes a concept of reconstitutive downward causation in which institutions act upon individual habits and dispositions the mechanisms involved do not fall foul of past critiques of holism or methodological collectivism this argument involves a rehabilitation of the concept of habit in social science with far reaching implications

an equilibrium model of the business cycle with household production and fiscal policy the authors estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model of the u s economy that includes an explicit household production sector and stochastic fiscal variables they use their estimates to investigate two issues first the authors analyze how well the model accounts for aggregate fluctuations they find that household production has a significant impact and reject a nested specification in which changes in the home production technology do not matter for market variables second the authors study the effects of some simple fiscal policy experiments and show that the model generates different predictions for the effects of tax changes than similar models without home production copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

valuing lost home production of dual earner couples using a life cycle model in which women divide their time between home and market work we establish a link between retirement wealth and the value of forgone home production we use data from the health and retirement study to estimate the model s parameters and adjust the growth rate of gdp to reflect reductions in non market output we find that the value of forgone home production is modest about 25 percent of women s measured earnings

facilitating consumer learning in insurance markets what are the welfare effects we model a monopoly insurance market where consumers can learn their accident risks at a cost c we then ask what are the welfare effects of a policy that reduces c if c is sufficiently small c c marginally reducing c hurts the insurer and weakly benefits the consumer finally a reduction in c that is successful meaning that the consumer gathers information after the reduction but not before it can hurt both parties this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

international business cycles and financial frictions abstract in this study i build a two country dsge model to investigate the impact of financial integration on business cycle co movements with financial frictions in this model the investor can borrow but faces a collateral constraint that is tied to the value of her capital and real estate holdings i show quantitatively that the degree of financial integration and real exchange rate adjustment are important for understanding business cycle synchronization under different types of shocks with the technology shock greater financial integration leads to lower cross country correlations while with the financial shock greater financial integration leads to stronger cross country correlations these findings are consistent with the empirical evidence from the literature

electoral uncertainty fiscal policy and macroeconomic fluctuations abstract in this paper we study the link between elections fiscal policy and aggregate fluctuations the setup is a stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating both technology and political re election shocks the latter are incorporated via a two party model with elections the main theoretical prediction is that forward looking incumbents with uncertain prospects of re election find it optimal to follow relatively shortsighted fiscal policies and that this hurts capital accumulation our econometric estimation using u s data finds a statistically significant link between electoral uncertainty and policy instruments and in turn macroeconomic outcomes

housing dynamics over the business cycle housing construction measured by housing starts leads gdp in a number of countries measured as residential investment the lead is observed only in the united states and canada elsewhere residential investment is coincident variants of existing theory however predict housing construction lagging gdp in all countries in the sample nominal interest rates are low ahead of gdp peaks introducing long term nominal mortgages and an estimated process for nominal interest rates into a standard model aligns the theory with observations on starts as mortgages transmit nominal rates into real housing costs longer time to build makes residential investment cyclically coincident abstract from author

structural transformation and the deterioration of european labor market outcomes this paper examines hours worked in continental europe and the united states from 1956 to 2003 the empirical work establishes two results first hours worked in europe decline by almost 45 percent compared to the united states over this period second this decline is almost entirely accounted for by the fact that europe develops a much smaller market service sector than the united states a simple model of time allocation is used to understand these patterns i find that relative increases in taxes and technological catch up can account for most of the differences between the european and american time allocations over this period

time allocation and home production technology abstract this paper studies the effect of the relative productivity between the market sector and the home sector on time allocation a novelty of the paper is to jointly estimate home productivity and the elasticity of substitution between market goods and home hours which is accomplished through structural estimation based on income decile level data with a high elasticity of substitution and a slower growth rate of productivity in the home sector relative to the market sector the model can produce key data patterns of time allocation in both the cross sections and time series quantitatively relative productivity can account for 32 of the variation in market hours and 18 of the variation in home hours

by force of demand explaining cyclical fluctuations of international trade and government spending abstract this paper explores the role of demand shocks as an alternative to productivity shocks in driving both domestic and international business cycles within the international real business cycle irbc framework in addition to those well documented domestic business cycle fluctuations e g the volatility and cyclicality of output consumption investment labor hours and labor productivity and international business cycle properties e g the countercyclical net export and the comovement puzzle this paper focuses on two additional stylized facts in the industrialized countries the procyclical trade openness the gdp fraction of trade volume and the countercyclical government size the gdp fraction of government spending using a parsimonious dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model we show that the model s predictions under productivity shocks are not consistent with these facts instead a demand shock driven model replicates the above facts while matching other domestic and international business cycle properties an estimated version of the model confirms the quantitatively important impacts of demand shocks

wholly owned subsidiary versus technology licensing in the worldwide chemical industry this paper empirically analyzes the determinants of the choice between wholly owned subsidiary and technology licensing as a strategy for expansion abroad we use a new and comprehensive database on worldwide plant level investments in the chemical industry during the 1981 1991 period we find that both cultural distance and the presence of other potential licensors favor the use of licensing as a strategy for expanding abroad whereas prior experience favors the choice of wholly owned subsidiary an implication of this study is that competition in the market for technology can foster the international diffusion of technology through the use of arm s length agreements

on the allocation of time a quantitative analysis of the roles of taxes and productivities basic theory suggests that increases in labor income taxes induce people to substitute household production for market work time use surveys for 12 oecd countries during 1970 2010 however show that instead people substituted leisure for market work to understand why this happened we carefully measure the labor productivity of household production and find that it grew strongly in many countries of our sample employing a calibrated model of household production we show that strong growth in the labor productivity of household production implies that leisure absorbs the reductions in market work after labor income tax increases

contracts with endogenous information abstract i study covert information acquisition and reporting in a principal agent problem allowing for general technologies of information acquisition when posteriors satisfy two dimensional versions of the standard first order stochastic dominance and concavity convexity of the distribution function conditions a first order approach is justified under the same conditions informativeness and riskiness of reports are equivalent high powered contracts that make the agent s informational rents more risky are used to increase incentives for information acquisition insensitive contracts are used to reduce incentives for information gathering the value of information to the agent is always positive the value of information to the principal is ambiguous

national systems of biotechnology innovation complex interdependence in the global system this paper explores the relationship between national institutional context and the development of biotechnology in the united states united kingdom japan and germany national patterns in biotechnology r d are linked to the configuration of county specific institutional features into a system of innovation which supports or impedes the accumulation and diffusion of knowledge between the scientific and industrial communities building on this comparative analysis it is argued that the particular characteristics of national systems of biotechnology innovation form the basis for complex interdependence within the global system through international technological cooperation and the cross border adoption and adaptation of institutional forms and practices implications for national technological advantage and the stability of national institutional systems are discussed

household production and the excess sensitivity of consumption to current income empirical research on the permanent income hypothesis pih has found that consumption growth is excessively sensitive to predictable changes in income this finding is interpreted as strong evidence against the pih we propose an explanation for apparent excess sensitivity that is based on a quantitative equilibrium model of household production in which permanent income consumers respond to shifts in sectoral wages and prices by substituting work effort and consumption across home and market sectors although the pih is true this mechanism generates apparent excess sensitivity because market consumption responds to predictable income growth

marginal income tax rates in the united states a non parametric approach abstract the objective of this paper is to estimate both the u s federal marginal income tax rate and the state and local marginal income tax rates we use the non parametric regression method and data on income and tax extracted from u s individual tax model files for the period 1985 1995 the flexibility of the non parametric approach and the information at the individual level enable us to construct a more reliable time series of the average federal marginal income tax rates and that of the average state and local marginal income tax rates our results suggest that the average federal marginal income tax rate varies from 18 2 to 21 8 and the average state and local marginal income tax rate varies from 4 7 to 5 6 we also find that the state and local income tax accounts for roughly 18 of the total income taxes paid during 1985 1995 moreover our analysis shows that stephenson journal of monetary economics 41 1998 pp 389 409 provides the most consistent tax rate series for use in applications that require estimates of tax rates for years prior to 1985

the psychic distance paradox companies tend to begin their internationalization process in countries that are psychically close researchers describe the sequence of entry that firms follow and the mode of entry they choose they suggest that psychically close countries are more easily understood than distant ones and offer more familiar operating environments although not prescriptive an unstated conclusion can be drawn linking sequence of entry to performance evidence from thirty two canadian retail companies shows that only seven 22 were functioning successfully in the united states the psychic distance paradox is that operations in psychically close countries are not necessarily easy to manage because assumptions of similarity can prevent executives from learning about critical differences moreover empirical evidence from 271 ceos confirms greater cultural differences between canada and the u s than assumed previously modifications are suggested to improve the psychic distance concept

life cycle prices and production we use scanner data and time diaries to document how households substitute time for money through shopping and home production we document substantial heterogeneity in prices paid for identical goods for the same area and time with older households shopping the most and paying the lowest prices doubling shopping frequency lowers a good s price by 7 to 10 percent we estimate the shopper s price of time and use this series to estimate an elasticity of substitution between time and goods in home production of roughly 1 8 the observed life cycle time allocation implies a consumption series that differs markedly from expenditures

from mill town to board room the rise of women s paid labor the widespread participation of women in paid labor outside of the home and in the highest echelons of society would have been unheard of a century ago this paper documents this dramatic change in women s social and economic status and argues that it was determined both by contemporaneous demand factors and by the characteristics expectations and social norms regarding work and family of different cohorts of women history suggests that change in women s labor force experiences may be slow because it must await the entry of new cohorts of women and also of men into the labor market

labor and investment frictions in a real business cycle model abstract this paper develops a prototype real business cycle model in which labor and investment frictions may compete directly with technology shocks in accounting for fluctuations in the postwar us economy using ireland s 2004a a method for taking models to the data journal of economic dynamics and control 28 1205 1226 methodology we establish that both types of friction are quantitatively important technology shocks still explain a substantial fraction of the fluctuations in aggregate output as the baseline real business cycle model predicts formal hypothesis tests suggest that changes in the recurrence of shocks frictions and structural parameters all play a role in accounting for the shift in the time series properties of the data between the periods before and after 1980

why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock recent empirical evidence suggests that private consumption is crowded in by government spending this outcome violates existing macroeconomic theory according to which the negative wealth effect brought about by a rise in public expenditure should decrease consumption

structural transformation marketization and household production around the world we provide evidence on household and market production in 36 countries since 1960 on average the household sector accounts for almost half of total hours worked as gdp per capita increases the employment share of household production in total hours worked initially declines and then hardly changes while the employment shares of market goods and services decrease and increase estimating the value added of household production yields similar patterns labor productivity of household production is lower than and positively correlated with that in the market these findings can be used as an input into quantitative work involving household production

national institutional differences and cross border university industry knowledge transfer abstract does inter national institutional difference hamper technology transfer from the foreign university to the business enterprises a multinational study on institutions suggests that some elements of institutions of nations positively influence international technology transfer some other elements of institutions negatively influence the international technology transfer and yet some other elements of institutions of nations have no influence on the international technology transfer the empirical analysis on six institutional dimensions reveals variegated results i religious distance has a positive effect on international technology transfer when listed companies are controlled ii social distance has a positive effect when listed firms are not controlled iii education distance has a positive effect when listed companies are not controlled iv political distance has no effect on international technology transfer and vi industrial distance has negative effect on international technology transfer however hofstede s measures on national cultural dimensions show no significant effects the non significant results could be due to the measurement of national cultures characteristics of the biopharmaceutical industry or due to changes in the patterns of national cultures over time

regulating a monopolist with unknown costs we consider the problem of how to regulate a monopolistic firm whose costs are unknown to the regulator the regulator s objective is to maximize a linear social welfare function of the consumers surplus and the firm s profit in the optimal regulatory policy prices and subsidies are designed as functions of the firm s cost report so that expected social welfare is maximized subject to the constraints that the firm has nonnegative profit and has no incentive to misrepresent its costs we explicitly derive the optimal policy and analyze its properties in their classic papers dupuit 2 and hotelling 5 considered pricing policies for a bridge that had a fixed cost of construction and zero marginal cost they demonstrated that the pricing policy that maximizes consumer well being is to set price equal to marginal cost and to provide a subsidy to the supplier equal to the fixed cost so that a firm would be willing to provide the bridge this first best solution is based on a number of informational assumptions first the demand function is assumed to be known to both the regulator and to the firm while the assumption of complete information may be too strong the assumption that information about demand is as available to the regulator as it is to the firm does not seem unnatural a second informational assumption is that the regulator has complete information about the cost of the firm or at least has the same information about cost as does the firm this assumption is unlikely to be met in reality since the firm would be expected to have better information about costs than would the regulator as weitzman has stated an essential feature of the regulatory environment i am trying to describe is uncertainty about the exact specification of each firm s cost function in most cases even the managers and engineers most closely associated with production will be unable to precisely specify beforehand the cheapest way to generate various hypothetical output levels because they are yet removed from the production process the regulators are likely to be vaguer still about a firm s cost function 12 p 684 as this observation suggests it is natural to expect that a firm would have better information regarding its costs than would a regulator the purpose of this paper is to develop an optimal regulatory policy for the case in which the regulator does not know the costs of the firm one strategy that a regulator could use in the absence of full information about costs is to give the firm the title to the total social surplus and to delegate the pricing decision to the firm in pursuing its own interests which would then be to maximize the total social surplus the firm would adopt the same marginal cost pricing strategy that the regulator would have imposed if the regulator had

the effects of within country linguistic and religious diversity on foreign acquisitions this article explores how within country diversity of both language and religion influences the ownership structure of foreign acquisitions commentators have acknowledged the potential importance of within country diversity but to date this issue has received minimal empirical attention we propose that diversity plays two distinct roles namely diversity within the host country may be an additional source of behavioral uncertainty and information asymmetry over and above the effects arising from cross national differences moreover diversity within the home country may increase the cognitive complexity of the decision makers moderating the firm s response to the distance and diversity of the host country results based on foreign acquisitions across 67 acquirer and 69 target countries confirm both of these roles while the main focus of this article is on the role that within country diversity plays in international business decisions it also makes contributions in terms of expanding the range of dimensions of distance investigated in the cross border acquisition literature in highlighting a potentially positive role that diversity might play in such acquisitions and in providing a potential explanation for asymmetries in distance that is differences in cognitive complexity

the value of information in efficient risk sharing arrangements suppose that agents share risks in competitive markets we show that better information makes everyone worse off if the economy has a representative agent that is the economy s demand for state contingent consumption equals the demand of a hypothetical agent who owns all the economy s wealth the representative agent moreover is normatively unrepresentative although each agent dislikes information the representative agent is indifferent although we emphasize pure exchange our results imply that a representative agent model might seriously misstate the welfare effects of improved information in an economy with production and risk sharing even if it performs well otherwise

retirement home production and labor supply elasticities a standard life cycle model with home production implies a tight relationship between key preference parameters and the changes in time allocated to home production and leisure at retirement we derive this relationship and use data from the atus to explore its quantitative implications the key finding is that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution for leisure and the elasticity of substitution between time and goods in home production are approximately equal in contrast to what is commonly assumed

engines of liberation electricity was born at the dawn of the last century households were inundated with a flood of new consumer durables what was the impact of this consumer durable goods revolution it is argued here that the consumer goods revolution was conducive to liberating women from the home to analyse this hypothesis a beckerian model of household production is developed households must decide whether or not to adopt the new technologies and whether a married woman should work can such a model help to explain the rise in married female labour force participation that occurred in the last century yes the housewife of the future will be neither a slave to servants nor herself a drudge she will give less attention to the home because the home will need less she will be rather a domestic engineer than a domestic labourer with the greatest of all handmaidens electricity at her service this and other mechanical forces will so revolutionize the woman s world that a large portion of the aggregate of woman s energy will be conserved for use in broader more constructive fields thomas alva edison as interviewed in good housekeeping magazine lv no 4 october 1912 p 436

gathering information before signing a contract after being offered a contract an agent has the possibility to observe the state of nature this enables him to refuse the contract in unfavorable states but burdens him with an observation cost the authors show that the principal offers a contract in which the agent has no incentive to observe the state of nature and they explore its terms later they show that the principal finds it profitable to organize competition between several agents even though he has monopoly power and can push a single agent down to his reservation utility copyright 1992 by american economic association

homework in development economics household production and the wealth of nations we introduce home production into the neoclassical growth model and examine its consequences for development economics in particular we study the extent to which one can account for international income differences with differences in policies that distort capital accumulation in models with home production such policies not only reduce capital accumulation but also change the mix of market and nonmarket activity hence these models can generate larger differences in output than standard models for a given policy differential we also show how the welfare implications change when we incorporate home production

labor income taxation human capital and growth the role of childcare in this paper we examine the effects of labor income taxation on growth in an overlapping generations model in which schooling and childcare play a role in the production of human capital we compare such effects with those obtained in a model in which only schooling matters for skill formation we show that the omission of childcare from the technology of skill formation can bias the results related to the impact of labor income taxation on growth

understanding the persistence properties of international macroeconomic aggregates in this paper the ability of a two country model of growth and cycles is evaluated to explain the persistence properties of output and consumption across countries simulated output and consumption levels replicate the observed appearance of noncointegration across countries simulated output growth rates however do not explain the observed positive serial correlation of output growth rates the reallocation of resources in response to technology shocks generates a negative serial correlation for output growth rates

time use during the great recession using data from the american time use survey between 2003 and 2010 we document that home production absorbs roughly 30 percent of foregone market work hours at business cycle frequencies leisure absorbs roughly 50 percent of foregone market work hours with sleeping and television watching accounting for most of this increase we document significant increases in time spent on shopping child care education and health job search absorbs between 2 and 6 percent of foregone market work hours we discuss the implications of our results for business cycle models with home production and non separable preferences jel codes d13 e32 j22

the effect of national culture on the choice of entry mode characteristics of national cultures have frequently been claimed to influence the selection of entry modes this article investigates this claim by developing a theoretical argument for why culture should influence the choice of entry two hypotheses are derived which relate culture to entry mode choice one focusing on the cultural distance between countries the other on attitudes towards uncertainty avoidance using a multinomial logit model and controlling for other effects the hypotheses are tested by analysing data on 228 entries into the united states market by acquisition wholly owned greenfield and joint venture empirical support for the effect of national culture on entry choice is found

gathering information before the contract is offered the case with two states of nature abstract focusing on a baron myerson model with two states of nature in the first part of the paper we study the contract that a principal would offer to an agent when he does not know whether the agent is informed or not about the state of nature in the second we endogenize the information of acquisition and show that in equilibrium a baron myerson type contract will never be offered

the social construction of market value institutionalization and learning perspectives on stock market reactions this study advances a social constructionist view of financial market behavior the paper suggests that the market s reaction to particular corporate practices such as stock repurchase plans are not as financial economists contend simply a function of the inherent efficiency of such practices rather stock market reactions are also influenced by the prevailing institutional logic and the degree of institutionalization of the practice the theory first predicts that the emergence of the agency perspective on corporate governance in the mid 1980s represented a powerful new institutional logic that would lead the market to reverse its prior aggregate reaction to stock repurchase plans in the united states the paper then considers the potential for institutional decoupling of repurchase plans and develops competing hypotheses about how the market value of these policies might have changed as more firms formally adopted but did not implement the plans over time in contrast to a financial economic pers

consumption and time use over the life cycle we incorporate home production in a dynamic general equilibrium model of consumption and savings with illiquid housing and a collateralized borrowing constraint the calibrated model explains life cycle patterns of households time use and consumption of different categories documented from the microdata it predicts that the interaction of the labor efficiency profile and the home production technology explains households time use the resulting income profiles the endogenous borrowing constraint and home production account for the initial hump in consumption the complementarity of home hours home input and housing in home production drives the consumption profiles later in the life cycle

growth effects of shifting from a graduated rate tax system to a flat tax i introduction recently the debate concerning fundamental u s tax reform has led to a number of proposals that involve a shift toward a consumption based system 1 one such proposal is the so called flat tax of hall and rabushka 1995 the flat tax would apply a single tax rate to all labor income above a given threshold and to all capital income after fully expensing investment expenditures hall and rabushka 1995 argue that the adoption of their proposal would provide an enormous boost to the u s economy by dramatically improving incentives to engage in productive activities and would save taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in compliance and administration costs 2 in this article we develop a quantitative general equilibrium model to assess the growth effects of adopting a flat tax plan similar to the one proposed by hall and rabushka 1995 the model captures many of the features of the current u s tax code such as graduated personal tax rates a standard personal deduction separate tax rates applied to personal and business income double taxation of business income and differential tax treatment of physical and human capital under appropriate parameter settings the model can exhibit either endogenous or exogenous long run growth our choice of functional forms facilitates a closed form solution to the model this allows us to characterize explicitly the economy s transition path following the reform a central issue in the debate over fundamental tax reform is the effect that such a reform would have on economic growth the present analysis builds on the work of stokey and rebelo 1995 who use an endogenous growth framework to identify the key model features and parameters that are important for determining the quantitative impacts of distortionary taxes on long run growth 3 our study differs from theirs and the bulk of the dynamic tax literature in one fundamental respect here we evaluate the growth effects of shifting from a graduatedrate tax system to a flat rate system stokey and rebelo 1995 consider only flat rate systems in which the marginal tax rate is equal to the average tax rate we approximate the graduated rate tax system in the u s economy by an empirical tax rate function that allows the personal tax rate to depend positively on household taxable income in equilibrium household decisions are influenced by both the level and slope of the tax schedule to implement the flat tax reform we shift the parameters of the tax rate function to flatten the marginal tax schedule while maintaining revenue neutrality our methodology treats the hall rabushka proposal as one that in effect moves a representative household from one tax rate schedule to another we view this setup as a reasonable approximation to gauge the growth effects of tax reform at the macro level a more elaborate setup would of course allow for household heterogeneity at a given point in time in this regard we note that caucutt et al 2003 have recently examined the growth effects of graduated rate taxes in a two period overlapping generations model that includes both skilled and unskilled agents in their model a flatter tax schedule increases the fraction of skilled agents in the economy the share of total output devoted to education rises accordingly and the economy s long run growth rate is observed to increase the quantitative implications of their model are difficult to compare to ours however because their two period framework implies a very long time horizon between household decisions about 30 years moreover their model abstracts from many of the features of the u s tax code that we include here in addition to examining the consequences of flattening the marginal tax schedule we investigate the growth effects attributable to other parts of the flat tax proposal such as allowing full investment expensing eliminating the double taxation of business income and increasing the standard personal deduction

technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid rbc model this paper contributes to the on going empirical debate regarding the role of the rbc model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations to this end we estimate the model s posterior density using markov chain monte carlo mcmc methods within this framework we extend ireland s 2001 2004 hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average varma process to describe the movements and co movements of the model s errors not explained by the basic rbc model the results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model s fit relative to the var and ar alternatives moreover despite setting the rbc model a more difficult task under the varma specification our analysis based on forecast error and spectral decompositions suggests that the rbc model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post war u s economy

comparative advantage and unemployment worker heterogeneity in productivity and labor supply is introduced into a matching model workers who earn high wages and work high hours are identified as those with strong market comparative advantage high rents from being employed the model is calibrated to match separation job finding and employment in the sipp data the model predicts a big drop in employment for workers with weak comparative advantage during recessions but the data show that workers with strong comparative advantage also display sizable employment fluctuations implying that aggregate employment fluctuations are not explained by the responses of workers with small rents to employment

estimation of dsge models when the data are persistent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models are often solved and estimated under specific assumptions as to whether the exogenous variables are difference or trend stationary however even mild departures of the data generating process from these assumptions can severely bias the estimates of the model parameters this paper proposes new estimators that do not require researchers to take a stand on whether shocks have permanent or transitory effects these procedures have two key features first the same filter is applied to both the data and the model variables second the filtered variables are stationary when evaluated at the true parameter vector the estimators are approximately normally distributed not only when the shocks are mildly persistent but also when they have near or exact unit roots simulations show that these robust estimators perform well especially when the shocks are highly persistent yet stationary in such cases linear detrending and first differencing are shown to yield biased or imprecise estimates

does psychic distance moderate the market size entry sequence relationship an analysis of 924 foreign market entries made by a sample of chinese exporters reveals that psychic distance moderates the relationship between foreign market size and entry sequence in doing so this study challenges the extant hypothesis that the establishment of foreign operations conforms to a simple pattern of increasing psychic distance to markets the findings also reveal that psychic distance is asymmetrical in nature and that assessments made by sellers and their buyers are inherently inequivalent

optimal taxation in a growth model with public consumption and home production in a neoclassical growth model with public consumption we show the following pareto optimal tax rules the government should tax leisure and private consumption at the same rate and subsidize net investment at the same rate it taxes net capital income also it should tax capital income more heavily than labor income in an extension for home production the additional rule is to tax investment for home production at the same rate of the tax on private market consumption these tax and subsidy rates should be constant over time except the initial tax rate on capital income

home production meets time to build an innovation in this paper is to introduce a time to build technology for the production of market capital into a model with home production our main finding is that the two anomalies that have plagued all household production models the positive correlation between business and household investment and household investment s leading business investment over the business cycle are resolved when time to build is added

adverse selection with endogenous information in insurance markets abstract models of adverse selection assume that risk type is known to the consumer but not to the insurer many analyses suggest that information has zero social value and negative prior value why then would consumers become informed what is the incentive to gather information and why does adverse selection arise we show that the private value of information is non negative only if insurers cannot observe consumers information status or if consumers can conceal their informational status we examine the existence and characterization of equilibria under different configurations of information costs and benefits finally we examine some welfare implications of the endogenous information model for public policy regarding genetic testing and for state regulations concerning hiv testing

the value of genetic information in the life insurance market abstract this paper analyzes the effects of additional information in a life insurance market under adverse selection individuals have an incentive to acquire information about their risk type if their informational status cannot be observed by insurers in aggregate however the existence of a testing opportunity has an effect on the equilibrium premium we describe the conditions under which from an ex ante standpoint all individuals gain all lose or in which some gain and some lose from the existence of the test

the approach of institutional economics this paper assesses the old institutional economics it emphasizes the importance of key old institutionalist themes concerning the necessity of habits and rules and the role of institutions a problem in the alternative theoretical program of the new institutionalism is the untenability of its assumption of an original institution free market or state of nature even optimizing behavior requires the prior existence of habits and rules although it still lacks a complete and systematic theory the evolutionary approach of the old institutionalists tackles the problem of the interactive relationship of actor to structure without analytical reduction to one or the other

genetic testing in competitive insurance markets with repulsion from chance a welfare analysis a central theme in the international debate on genetic testing concerns the extent to which insurance companies should be allowed to use genetic information when offering insurance contracts we provide a welfare analysis of this issue within a model of an insurance market with asymmetric information having the following crucial feature in addition to a state contingent consumption profile a person s well being depends on her attitude towards resolution of future health uncertainty and this attitude varies across the population we present stylized facts that motivate this approach in the formal analysis we find that both tested high risks and untested individuals are equally well off whether or not test results can be used by insurers individuals who test for being low risks on the other hand are made worse off by not being able to verify this to insurers this implies that in terms of welfare a regulatory regime in which the use of genetic information by insurers is allowed is better than one in which it is not allowed

pessimistic information gathering an agent gathers information on productivity shocks and accordingly produces on behalf of a principal information gathering is imperfect and whether it succeeds or not depends on the agent s effort contracting frictions come from the fact that the agent is pessimistic on the issue of information gathering and there are both moral hazard in information gathering private information on productivity shocks and moral hazard on operating effort an optimal menu of linear contracts mixes high powered productivity dependent screening options following good news with a fixed low powered option otherwise

using theory for measurement an analysis of the cyclical behavior of home production abstract a significant amount of economic activity takes place within the home unfortunately it is difficult to assess the cyclical properties of home production because the available data are too sporadic using a real business cycle rbc model we construct quarterly data on three variables that are unobservable at a quarterly frequency hours worked in the home sector hours spent in leisure and the consumption of home produced goods three results emerge leisure is countercyclical while nonmarket hours are acyclical hours spent in home production have declined significantly since the 1970s fluctuations in market output are a good measure of fluctuations in individual utility as long as home and market consumption are either extreme complements or extreme substitutes in the production of utility

household borrowing constraints and residential investment dynamics abstract it is well known that residential investment leads output in the us economy the main contribution of our paper is to highlight the role of household borrowing constraints in accounting for this fact we study the role of home equity loans used to boost consumption as a channel that affects residential investment we consider a multi agent model where some home owning households face borrowing constraints that reflect home equity loans or refinancing constraints we show that the severity of the households borrowing constraints in an economy can generate this stylized fact of us residential investment dynamics interestingly the model correctly predicts coincident residential investment dynamics in countries with less severe borrowing constraints this prediction is borne out when the model is calibrated to french data

homework in labor economics household production and intertemporal substitution abstract we argue that estimates of intertemporal substitution elasticities obtained from standard life cycle models are subject to a downward bias because they neglect changes in work done at home over the life cycle we extend the standard life cycle model to include home production and estimate it using data from three time use surveys we find that the downward bias is large

consumption versus expenditure previous authors have documented a dramatic decline in food expenditures at the time of retirement we show that this is matched by an equally dramatic rise in time spent shopping for and preparing meals using a novel data set that collects detailed food diaries for a large cross section of u s households we show that neither the quality nor the quantity of food intake deteriorates with retirement status we also show that unemployed households experience a decline in food expenditure and food consumption commensurate with the impact of job displacement on permanent income these results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income whereas measures of expenditures obscure the distinction

optimal taxation with home production abstract optimal taxes for europe and the u s are derived in a realistically calibrated model in which agents buy consumption goods and services and use home capital and labor to produce household services the optimal tax rate on services is substantially lower than the tax rate on goods specifically the planner cannot tax home production directly and instead lowers the tax rate on market services to increase the relative price of home production the optimal tax rate on the return to home capital is strictly positive and the welfare gains from switching to optimal taxes are large

productivity and the labor market comovement over the business cycle the productivity driven mortensen pissarides model predicts that labor productivity dened as the ratio of output to employment is strongly correlated with employment unemployment vacancies and wages whereas these correlations were argued to be much weaker in the data especially since the mid 1980s we rst document that the size of these discrepancies between the data and the model becomes substantially smaller if employment data from the current population survey is used in measuring productivity instead of the commonly used employment data from the current employment statistics second we show that incorporating time to build and a stochastic value of home production helps reconcile the quantitative performance of the model with the data with stochastic productivity being the key determinant of the business cycle dynamics of the model