when in rome how non domestic companies listed in the uk may not comply with accepted norms and principles of good corporate governance does home market culture explain these corporate behaviours and attitudes to compliance non domestic companies are increasingly present on the london stock exchange such companies have specific governance requirements they may seek to access capital in a more liquid market and to diversify ownership the reputational bonding coffee northwest univ law rev 93 641 708 1999 columbia law rev 102 1757 1831 2002 to a prestigious exchange should be a statement to the market of a propensity to disclosure and a willingness to protect minority shareholders yet many non domestic companies retain tightly controlled shareholding structures and are based in emerging regions where national culture norms differ to the uk we hypothesise that non domestic companies are likely to be less compliant with the principles of the uk corporate governance code and suggest a correlation between lower levels of compliance and non domestic companies from countries that demonstrate high power distance in the hofstede culture s consequences international differences in work related values 1980a cultural value framework we find some encouraging signs of compliance with the reigning governance code principles in board structures however we find only partial compliance in leadership and board effectiveness measures in those companies from cultures high on the power distance scale further we include analysis into ownership characteristics and find companies from emerging markets are dominated by a single or controlling group of shareholders which is likely to impact on attitudes to compliance and is particularly evidenced in terms of board structures with no executive directors or led by an executive chairman much of the prior research effort into the levels of compliance with the uk s comply or explain approach to governance has produced mixed results and focused on all companies in our exploratory approach to analysing only the non domestic subsample we report some evidence linking cultural distance to lower levels of compliance with the uk standards we develop a framework to guide future research into the context and cultural underpinnings of this sub sample of companies hypothesising that frequent market capitalisation induced index changes may divert attention away from any potential compliance issues on the one hand our evidence is encouraging for governance regimes based on voluntary compliance disclosures such as the uk and similar european and international markets as we report partial compliance with the principles of the current governance code our research may however be helpful in guiding future versions of the uk governance framework and other international governance regimes adopting the comply or explain approach and in setting policy to improve disclosure it contributes to the understanding of the specific context of non domestic companies and any cultural tendencies to non compliance by demonstrating evidence of lower levels of compliance with key principles of the code by non domestic companies we present a framework enabling lawmakers to further improve corporate governance codes

standard risk aversion this paper introduces the concept of standard risk aversion a von neumann morgenstern utility function has standard risk aversion if any risk makes a small reduction in wealth more painful in the sense of an increased reduction in expected utility also makes any undesirable independent risk more painful it is shown that given monotonicity and concavity the combination of decreasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing absolute prudence is necessary and sufficient for standard risk aversion standard risk aversion is shown to imply not only pratt and zeckhauser s proper risk aversion individually undesirable independent risks always being jointly undesirable but also that being forced to face an undesirable risk reduces the optimal investment in a risky security with and independent return similar results are established for the effect of broad class of increases in one risk on the desirability of or optimal investment in a second independent risk

exploring the use of trade and professional association services this article examines how the services offered by sector business associations are used and the impact that they offer a large scale survey of small and medium sized businesses is used to infer how association services operate an important focus is to determine the level at which the fixed costs of association services are covered this defines a minimum size level for associations this is found to be between one half and one member of staff per thousand businesses in that sector this is a fairly low barrier to market entry by an association which helps to explain the fragmentation of associations this is further indicated by the existence of declining internal economics of scale and scope for larger association sizes this suggests that efforts to stimulate association merger and co operation will continue to meet with limited success

the demise of the national union in italy lessons for comparative industrial relations theory using data collected during field research in italy on the reorganization of the auto industry the author analyzes recent changes in italian industrial relations based on this case study he argues for a new approach to comparative industrial relations research and theory instead of treating national systems as the basic unit of analysis and searching for macro institutional features as the key dimensions to use in constructing comparative typologies of industrial relations systems the author develops an approach focusing on micro level developments and the politics of strategic choice to explain variation within nations two factors appear to be crucial in explaining this variation local socioeconomic conditions that shape the strategies of unions and management in firms undergoing adjustment and the choices unions make in reallocating responsibilities between local and national structures

on reform of the state and regulation of the market abstract this concluding paper reviews possible interrelationships between the economic and political dimensions of contemporary liberalizations in latin america and southern and eastern central europe after noting the absence of certain negative features impediments to a liberal economic and political order the paper proposes a more positive justification based on the examination of four possible interrelated linking mechanisms responses to chronic fiscal crisis the stabilization of popular expectations the strengthening of transparent and accountable institutions and external forms of reinforcement can all in principle contribute to the coordinated reinforcement of a more democratized state and a more liberalized market system without this implying a single uniform end result applicable to all situations this special issue has focused on some theoretical questions whether these possible linkages operate in practice requires empirical verification

the bargaining system and performance a comparison of 18 oecd countries theoretical reasoning disagrees about what type of bargaining system performs best the authors have tested the explanatory power of three competing hypotheses neoliberalism corporatism and the hump shape hypothesis all of these hypotheses lack empirical support due to two main shortcomings first they ignore that wage restraint raises three distinct types of collective action problems second they do not consider qualitative differences among the national bargaining systems particularly the role of the state that do not allow analysis to construct such ordinal rankings of bargaining coordination as adopted by all previous empirical studies proceeding from a revised hypothesis and new measures of national bargaining systems the authors have found a nonlinear relationship between the bargaining system and economic performance in a way that economy wide wage coordination is superior only when the bargaining system is able to make local bargaining comply with coordination activities

evaluating interval forecasts a complete theory for evaluating interval forecasts has not been worked out to date most of the literature implicitly assumes homoskedastic errors even when this is clearly violated and proceed by merely testing for correct unconditional coverage consequently i set out to build a consistent framework for conditional interval forecast evaluation which is crucial when higher order moment dynamics are present the new methodology is demonstrated in an application to the exchange rate forecasting procedures advocated in risk management

private interest government beyond market and state market liberalism and state interventionism are both challenged as modes of democratic government by this book it suggests that the development of private interest governments might be a more viable policy alternative for the future it also questions whether the state could devolve certain public policy responsibilities to interest associations in specific economic sectors the book focuses specifically on interest associations in a disaggregated rather than global approach to economics and politics ten western industrialized countries are covered subjects ranging from advertising with self regulation private accountancy regulation and the british voluntary sector to four comparative papers on the corporatist arrangements in the governance of the dairy industry

structure and performance the task of economic history jhe cliometric revolution in ecoknomic history wedded neoclassical economics and quantitative methods in order to describe and explain the performance of economies in the past economic history gained in rigor and scientific pretension but at the expense of exploring a much more fundamental set of questions about the evolving structure of economies that underlies performance 2 cliometricians have turned their backs on a long tradition stretching back from joseph schumpeter to karl marx to adam smith these scholars regarded economic history as essential because it added a dimension to economics its purpose was to analyze the parameters held constant by the economist if economics is a theory of choice subject to specified constraints a task of economic history was to theorize about those evolving constraints the failure of economic historians to provide their colleagues with a historical dimension to their perspective has reduced the effectiveness of economists in dealing with contemporary problems failure of economists to appreciate the transitory character of the assumed constraints and to understand the source and direction of these changing constraints is a fundamental handicap to further development of economic theory the challenge to the economic historian which has equally compelling implications for the economic theorist is to explain the transformation of the structure of the american economy in the past century 3 in the rest of this essay i shall explore this issue in order to specify some of the dimensions of the economic historian s task

the politics of liberalizing zambia s maize markets abstract this paper discusses the process of agricultural liberalization in zambia the central argument is that maize markets have been more quickly and fully liberalized than maize input markets because the perceived political risks of liberalizing input markets are greater than those of liberalizing maize markets and because economic interest groups benefited from maize liberalization while similar interests benefited from continued government interventions in input markets these finding imply that in order to understand the prospects for economic liberalization in new democracies we must disaggregate both civil society and markets

reconceptualizing the developmental state public savings and economic growth abstract developmental state theory suggests that rapid economic growth can be achieved when states allocate financial resources to strategic industrial sectors while not denying this mechanism i argue that an equally important component of state led growth is public sector efforts to mobilize financial resources for investment and growth i support this argument with crossnational statistical evidence and a brazilian case study both of which suggest that public savings substantially influence economic growth rates

general economic conditions and national elections the fact that economic conditions influence voters is a leading commonplace of conversation in election years the question is is this fact in fact a fact despite the overwhelming popularity of the fact it has received neither an explicit theoretical analysis presumably because it is so obvious that economic adversity should create political adversaries nor until recently a satisfactory statistical analysis gerald h kramer has presented a multivariate analysis of congressional elections which would strongly suggest that fluctuations in the rate of unemployment have no appreciable effect upon elections but that fluctuations in per capita real income are influential in the following pages i propose to 1 reaffirm his finding on the electoral unimportance of ordinary fluctuations in unemployment 2 argue that contrary to kramer fluctuations in real income also do not have important electoral effects and 3 present an argument based upon rational voter behavior for the unimportance of general economic conditions in national elections

capture and ideology in the economic theory of politics the economic theory of regulation long ago put public interest theories of politics to rest these theories have correctly been viewed as normative wishings rather than explanations of real world phenomena they have been replaced by models of political behavior that are consistent with the rest of microeconomics anthony downs 1957 james buchanan and gordon tullock 1965 george stigler 1971 sam peltzman 1976 recently however debate has arisen over whether some version of a public interest theory of regulation will have to be readmitted to our thinking about actions and results in the political arena what is at issue is the empirical importance of the altruistic publicly interested goals of rational actors in determining legislative and regulatory outcomes james kau and paul rubin 1979 kalt 1981 peltzman 1982 this study assesses the nature and significance of publicly interested objectives in a particular instance of economic policymaking u s senate voting on coal strip mining regulations the existence of such objectives is of course no contradiction of the economic view of human behavior kenneth arrow 1972 gary becker 1974 and may well be rooted in genetic biological history becker 1976 jack hirshleifer 1978 generally however individuals altruistic publicly interested goals have been given little attention this reflects the judgment that such goals are so empirically unimportant as to allow the use of occam s razor in positive models or well founded apprehensions that these goals are unusually difficult to identify measure and analyze notwithstanding the latter problem we find that approaches which confine themselves to a view of political actors as narrowly egocentric maximizers explain and predict legislative outcomes poorly the tracking and dissecting of the determinants of voting on coal strip mining policy suggest that the economic theory of politics has been prematurely closed to a broader conception of political behavior

the risk in hedge fund strategies theory and evidence from trend followers hedge fund strategies typically generate option like returns linear factor models using benchmark asset indices have difficulty explaining them following the suggestions in glosten and jagannathan 1994 this article shows how to model hedge fund returns by focusing on the popular trend following strategy we use lookback straddles to model trend following strategies and show that they can explain trend following funds returns better than standard asset indices though standard straddles lead to similar empirical results lookback straddles are theoretically closer to the concept of trend following our model should be useful in the design of performance benchmarks for trend following funds

a new approach to measuring financial contagion this article proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets our measure of contagion captures the coincidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions we characterize the extent of contagion its economic significance and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s we find that contagion is predictable and depends on regional interest rates exchange rate changes and conditional stock return volatility evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed

human scale economics economic growth and poverty reduction in northeastern thailand under what conditions does economic growth benefit the poor one way to answer this question is to identify and compare positive and negative outlier areas those that experience greater and lesser poverty reduction respectively compared to what was anticipated given their levels of economic growth the more similar these areas the more leverage there is to unearth the factors that allow the poor to benefit from growth in this paper we employ an inductive approach to glean possible pathways out of poverty from two highly similar underdeveloped neighboring provinces in northeastern thailand using extensive fieldwork and interviews we explore factors that can account for one province reducing poverty at a quicker pace than expected even as the other failed to channel its faster growth into significant poverty reduction our study finds that in surin province because a strong network of local ngos was working closely with provincial leadership national policies that targeted the poor found fertile ground and thrived small scale low tech rural based initiatives including organic rice handicraft production and rural tourism helped drive initially high levels of poverty down though many in si saket also pursued many of these initiatives they were structured in ways that promoted economic growth but largely prevented poor farmers from benefitting further research can examine whether this kind of micro oriented path to rapid rural poverty reduction is useful in other contexts

bringing capital back in or social democracy reconsidered employer power cross class alliances and centralization of industrial relations in denmark and sweden the political domination of social democrats in denmark and sweden beginning in the 1930s was stabilized by the absence of intense opposition by capital to reformist programs aggressively opposed by business and the right elsewhere in the world this quiescence was not a symptom of weakness or dependency rather it was a product of a class intersecting cross class alliance behind institutions of centralized industrial relations that served mutual interests of sectoral groupings dominating both union and employer confederations well organized and militant and backed by social democrats employers in the two countries used offensive multi industry lockouts to force centralization on reluctant unions analysis of these cross class alliances and their pay distributional objectives is used to challenge a widely held view that centralization and social democratic electoral strength are sources of power against capital it also occasions a reassessment of conventional understandings of farmer labor coalitions and the decline of industrial conflict in scandinavia in the 1930s according to the alternative view presented here capital was included rather than excluded from these cross class alliances and industrial conflict subsided dramatically in part because employers achieved politically what they had previously tried to achieve with the lockout

bureaucratic discretion or congressional control regulatory policymaking by the federal trade commission this paper extends stigler and peltzman s approach to regulation by incorporating a legislature the model yields comparative statics results and hence testable implications the paper then tests between two opposing approaches about regulatory agency behavior the first assumes agencies operate independently of the legislature and hence exercise discretion the second assumes that congress controls agency decisions the recent behavior of the federal trade commission provides the empirical setting substantial evidence is found for the specific predictions of the model including the hypothesis of systematic congressional influence over ftc decisions

an econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns the returns to hedge funds and other alternative investments are often highly serially correlated in sharp contrast to the returns of more traditional investment vehicles such as long only equity portfolios and mutual funds in this paper we explore several sources of such serial correlation and show that the most likely explanation is illiquidity exposure i e investments in securities that are not actively traded and for which market prices are not always readily available for portfolios of illiquid securities reported returns will tend to be smoother than true economic returns which will understate volatility and increase risk adjusted performance measures such as the sharpe ratio we propose an econometric model of illiquidity exposure and develop estimators for the smoothing prole as well as a smoothing adjusted sharpe ratio for a sample of 908 hedge funds drawn from the tass database we show that our estimated smoothing coecien ts vary considerably across hedge fund style categories and may be a useful proxy for quantifying illiquidity exposure

the causes of government expenditure growth a survey of the u s evidence abstract the growth of government budgets can be broken down into a institutional and institutional components the former component the familiar substitution income and population public goods tax sharing effects is estimated to contribute about two fifths of the growth of u s government spending the latter component rent seeking political redistributions bureaucracy and perceptual informational impedimentia is important too but an exact imputation cannot be asserted given the state of the art in empirical public choice theory the cross effects on spending of the growth of regulation and tax preferences or tax expenditures though interesting is not pursued

a longer look at the asymmetric dependence between hedge funds and the equity market this paper reexamines at a range of investment horizons the asymmetric dependence between hedge fund returns and market returns given the current availability of hedge fund data the joint distribution of longer horizon returns is extracted from the dynamics of monthly returns using the filtered historical simulation we then apply the method based on copula theory to uncover the dependence structure therein while the direction of asymmetry remains unchanged the magnitude of asymmetry is attenuated considerably as the investment horizon increases similar horizon effects also occur on the tail dependence our findings suggest that nonlinearity in hedge fund exposure to market risk is more short term in nature and that hedge funds provide higher benefits of diversification the longer the horizon

human capital accumulation and endogenous public expenditures in this paper we present an overlapping generations model where individuals accu mulate human capital through formal schooling we model the role of the public sector in schooling as one of collecting taxes from households and providing inputs to the learning technology public expenditures on schools are determined endogenously under plausible restrictions our model s predictions qualitatively match the observations on schooling pub lic expenditures on education and student teacher ratios jel classification el 3 e62 accumulation de capital humain et depenses publiques endogenes dans ce memoire les auteurs presentent un modele de generations qui se chevauchent ofu les individus accumulent du capital humain via l education formelle le r6le du secteur public dans l education est defini comme celui de collecteur d imp6ts aupres des menages et de fournisseur d intrants dans la technologie d apprentissage les depenses publiques en education sont determinees de maniere endogene a partir de restrictions plausibles les predictions du modele s arriment qualitativement aux observations sur le monde scolaire aux depenses publiques en educa tion et aux ratios 6leves enseignants

government partisanship labor organization and macroeconomic performance governments of the left and right have distinct partisan economic policies and objectives that they would prefer to pursue their propensity to do so however is constrained by their desire for reelection we argue that the ability of governments to further their partisan interests and preside over reelectable macroeconomic outcomes simultaneously is dependent on the organization of the domestic economy particularly the labor movement we hypothesize that there are two different paths to desirable macroeconomic performance in countries with densely and centrally organized labor movements leftist governments can promote economic growth and reduce inflation and unemployment conversely in countries with weak labor movements rightist governments can pursue their partisan preferred macroeconomic strategies and achieve similarly beneficial macroeconomic outcomes performance will be poorer in other cases these hypotheses are supported by analysis of pooled annual time series data for 16 advanced industrial democracies between 1967 and 1984

forecasting the performance of hedge fund styles this article predicts the relative performance of hedge fund investment styles using time varying conditional stochastic dominance tests these tests allow for the construction of dynamic trading strategies based on nonparametric density forecasts of hedge fund returns during the recent financial turmoil our tests predict a superior performance for the global macro investment style compared with the other strategies of directional traders the dedicated short bias investment style is stochastically dominated by the other directional styles these results are confirmed by simple nonparametric tests constructed from realized excess returns further by utilizing a cross validation method for optimal bandwidth parameter selection we discover the factors that have predictive power regarding the density of hedge fund returns we observe that different factors have forecasting power for different regions of the returns distribution and more importantly that the fung and hsieh factors have power not only for describing the risk premium but also if appropriately exploited for density forecasting

on the internal revenue service s service and enforcement i introduction the internal revenue service irs services as well as audits taxpayers the irs provides taxpayer service through a variety of channels including its website toll free telephone lines and the taxpayer assistance center for fy 2008 the irs budget request includes 3 6 billion for taxpayer service and 7 2 billion for enforcement everson 2007 in the assessment of the fy 2009 irs budget request the government accountability office gao 2008 1 points out that effective tax administration requires a balance of service and enforcement and enforcement efforts should be combined with taxpayer service because both affect compliance although taxpayer service is an important activity of the irs s operation to our knowledge there is no formal model to address the connection between service and enforcement and more importantly its policy implications in the context of tax compliance this article seeks to take a step to fill this void we consider a simple tax compliance model which is built upon the seminal work of graetz reinganum and wilde 1986 hereafter grw unlike the classical contribution of allingham and sandmo 1972 and yitzhaki 1974 which treats the irs actions as exogenous in their analysis of tax evasion the grw model views the irs as a strategic player that interacts with taxpayers the grw model also differs from the principal agent tax evasion model first introduced by reinganum and wilde 1985 as pointed out by grw the principal agent model suffers from the time inconsistency problem as it requires that the irs announce and commit to an audit policy even though the precommitted audit policy will typically prove suboptimal once taxpayers submit their reported income grw emphasize that their interactive model follows the natural temporal sequence of decisions first taxpayers report their income and only then does the irs decide whether to perform tax audits this sequence is what we typically observe in the real world 1 however like other models on tax compliance grw consider the enforcement part but leave out the service part of the irs activities we extend the grw model to the real world in which the irs services as well as audits taxpayers similar to grw we assume that a taxpayer has either high income or low income to incorporate the role of the irs s service we also assume that taxpayers are uncertain about whether their incomes are eligible for deduction exemption and may seek advice from the taxpayer service provided by the irs to mitigate the uncertainty an important feature of our model is that in equilibrium all net tax revenues collected by the irs are from those taxpayers who voluntarily report high incomes to the irs to maximize the population of the taxpayers in this group the irs will not provide the most accurate service but only maintain an intermediate level of quality the optimal level of accuracy will be increasing as the difficulty in identifying the true income eligibility increases which may be due to more complicated tax laws moreover there exists a conflict between the irs and the society with regard to the optimal taxpayer service in that the society s preferred quality of taxpayer service is likely to be sufficiently high the conflict tends to be intensified as the cost of tax audits becomes lower our result is consistent with the trend in the united states regarding the resources allocated to the taxpayer service in the past few decades we also extend our model in the following two directions the first extension is to address the issue of corruption in tax administration many developing countries suffer from inefficiencies in tax administration and corruption arising from enforcement some authors argue that it is important for developing countries to recognize the service paradigm of tax compliance which emphasizes not only the role of enforcement but also the role of taxpayer service

conflicts interest groups and politics in structural reforms abstract the present study is to my knowledge the first to examine the balance of power among all players influencing the adoption of structural reforms politicians regulators and interest groups special attention is devoted to the effect of conflicts between regulators professional conflicts signal to politicians that there is a high level of risk in implementing a given reform thereby weakening their confidence in it conflicts also benefit interest groups increasing their effectiveness vis a vis politicians using a unique data set on 32 attempts to reform israel s financial market i find that the greater the extent of conflicts among regulators and the greater the intensity of the opposition of interest groups the lower the probability that a reform will be approved these conflicts together with the strength of interest groups have led to repeated attempts to introduce reforms so that it takes on average 10 years for a reform to be adopted

zero r 2hedge funds and market neutrality factor models yield an r 2 insignificantly different from 0 for one third of hedge funds in a broad sample these funds illustrate the concept of market neutrality and feature lower volatilities higher sharpe ratios and higher alphas than other funds indicating that they provide a successful alternative investment however large portfolios of zero r 2 funds contain fully half the volatility of portfolios of other funds suggesting that they feature substantial systematic risk furthermore these funds display an increased probability of failure even after controlling for idiosyncratic volatility these results indicate the presence of an omitted factor that exposes investors to significant downside risk

economic reforms and cycles of state intervention abstract this paper views recent programs of state shrinking within a long term cyclical perspective it argues that the recent crisis of the state in latin america and eastern europe is a product of the excessive and distorted pattern of state growth during the expansionary phase of the cycle the current phase is one of necessary reform and privatization but there will be no final minimal state as theorized by the neoliberals on the contrary the cyclical pattern will produce a reorganized state ready to intervene and grow again the paper discusses both the economic and the political forces at work in these cycles invoking not only kondratieff but also hirschman unless the present generation of reformers learn to recognize the cyclical context within which they are operating and to accept that a strong reformed state is required for the resumption of growth and the consolidation of democracy they risk promoting measures which may eventually prove harmful both to market oriented reform and to political liberty

comparing capitalisms understanding institutional diversity and its implications for international business this paper examines the role of institutional analysis within the field of international business ib studies within ib institutions matter but the view of institutions tends to be thin utilizing summary indicators rather than detailed description and thus approaches institutions as unidimensional variables that impact on particular facets of business activity this paper argues that ib research would be usefully advanced by greater attention to comparing the topography of institutional landscapes and understanding their diversity a number of alternative case based approaches are outlined that draw on a growing comparative capitalisms literature in sociology and political science the paper develops a number of empirical examples to show the utility and limits of these approaches for ib scholars

fiscal restraints and voter welfare this paper explores the logic of fiscal restraints in a political agency model with both moral hazard and adverse selection the role of the political process is both to discipline incumbents who may act against the public interest and to sort in those politicians who are most likely act in voters interests we use the model to examine the optimality of inefficient taxation limits on the size of government increasing transparency and yardstick competition some conclusions are surprising for example we show that some forms of fiscal restraint can only be desirable when incumbents are sufficiently likely to be benevolent

are market neutral hedge funds really market neutral one can consider the concept of market neutrality for hedge funds as having breadth and depth breadth resects the number of market risks to which a fund is neutral while depth resects the completeness of the neutrality of the fund to market risks we focus on market neutrality depth and propose ve different neutrality concepts mean neutrality nests the standard correlation based de nition of neutrality variance neutrality value at risk neutrality and tail neutrality all relate to the neutrality of the risk of the hedge fund to market risks finally complete neutrality corresponds to independence of the fund to market risks we suggest statistical tests for each neutrality concept and apply the tests to a combined database of monthly market neutral hedge fund returns from the hfr and tass hedge fund databases we nd that around one quarter of these funds exhibit some signi cant exposure to market risk

the growth of government in the united states an economic historian s perspective abstract this paper first outlines the salient features of the growth of government in american history secondly it offers a neoclassical explanation of that history in which increasing specialization and division of labor brought on by the scientific technological revolution of the nineteenth century drastically altered the demand for and supply of government finally it argues that institutions matter and describes the way the particular structure of governments was important in the timing and pace of its growth

the east asian miracle study does the bell toll for industrial strategy the world bank s east asian miracle study1 has been anticipated with considerable interest by the development community it was intended not least by the japanese government that financed it to be an objective re examination of the role of government interventions in economic particularly industrial development it reflected a widespread unease that the bank was too strongly committed to a neoliberal view of the development process 2 this approach evolved over the 1980s drawing mainly upon evidence from east asia and fuelled by a shift in mainstream economics and political perceptions in the leading developed countries it formed the basis of the bank s subsequent lending and policy advice and was at the core of the structural adjustment programs that have shaped policy in many developing countries this review confines itself to the study s analysis of industrial policy concentrating on the approach and the analysis of the established nies the four tigers

the size of government most research on the causes of growth in government expenditure has focused on the demand for government services in this paper we argue that in fact this growth may have occurred because of changes in supply changes in technology leading to increased specialization and thus increased opportunity costs of self production have led to increased market production and increased record keeping also female labor force participation has increased both of these factors serve to reduce the efficiency cost of collecting taxes if the demand for government spending has not changed this increase in supply would lead to a larger public sector we estimate a system of simultaneous equations for the period 1929 1970 incorporating this hypothesis and the results are consistent with the theory we are able to explain virtually all of the growth of government increases in female labor force participation seems to be a very important variable in this explanation

deadweight costs and the size of government abstract we provide a model for analyzing effects of the tax system and spending programs on the determination of government spending and taxpayer welfare an improvement in the efficiency of either taxes or spending would reduce political pressure for suppressing the growth of government and thereby increase total tax revenue and spending we demonstrate the similarity of the political responses to revenue shocks spending shocks changes in tax efficiency and changes in spending program efficiency empirical analysis of oil shocks intergovernmental grants and other autonomous changes in taxes or spending indicates that cause and effect is not only from spending to tax structures

a new approach to international arbitrage pricing this paper uses a nonlinear arbitrage pricing model a conditional linear model and an unconditional linear model to price international equities bonds and forward currency contracts unlike linear models the nonlinear arbitrage pricing model requires no restrictions on the payoff space allowing it to price payoffs of options forward contracts and other derivative securities only the nonlinear arbitragepricing model does an adequate job of explaining the time series behavior of a cross section of international returns the idea that a few relevant state variables explain expected returns is the main driving force of the seminal papers of merton 1973 and ross 1976 these seminal ideas have been extended to the pricing of international assets by ikeda 1991 ross and walsh 1983 solnik 1974 1983 and stulz 1981 among others the key implication of these arbitrage pricing models is that only risks related to these factors state variables are relevant in determining asset prices testable implications of these international asset pricing models have been derived either by placing restrictions on the payoff structure i e payoffs are linear in factors as in ikeda 1991 ross and walsh 1983 and solnik 1983 or on the joint distributions of the payoffs and state variables as in constantinides 1989 these restrictions lead to the testable implication that expected asset returns are linear in the conditional covariances with the factor payoffs in what follows we refer to these models as linear arbitrage models or linear models

macroeconomic conditions in the u s and congressional voting on environmental policy 1970 2008 using the environmental scorecard ratings of congressmen and senators published annually by the league of conservation voters we explore empirically whether political support for pro environment legislation aggregated across each legislative body is sensitive over time to changing economic conditions that is whether there is a political trade off between economic conditions and the environment using lcv scorecard ratings from 1970 to 2008 we find evidence consistent across both the house and senate that political support for the environment is related to per capita income but this general tendency can be decomposed into sharp differences by party

markets and states against minimalism abstract this paper argues against the currently fashionable case for state minimalism or laissez faire it not only argues for a strong state but also for an activist one though operating on a different basis from the many recently failed interventionist states the argument is developed via a critique of a series of overstated or one sided propositions that bolster the state minimalist position these include the notion of price distortions of inherently inefficient public enterprise of an unambiguous dividing line between the public and the private sectors and of statism as inherently rent seeking the paper seeks to rescue alternative perspectives from outside neoclassical political economy approach such as the importance of civil society and the need for a nonmaximizing theory of the state successful liberalization programs may require more intervention of a different kind at least for a transitional period a broad view of democracy is required allowing the possibility of state action guided by motives of public interest

equity market neutral hedge funds and the stock market an application of score driven copula models in this article we study the time varying market neutrality of equity market neutral hedge funds we use data from the hedge fund research equity market neutral index hfrx eh which represents

currency substitution and instability in the world dollar standard comment myron ross correctly points out in his comment that u s price inflation is better predicted by the american money supply mlus than by the broader ten country world money supply mlw over the whole statistical time series from 1960 to 1980 provided in mckinnon s 1982 article specifically he showed that american price inflation is more highly correlated with mlus lagged one or two years than with mlw similarly lagged however mckinnon s present tense assertion that in general growth in the world money supply is a better predictor of american price inflation than is american money growth applies only to the weak dollar standard of the 1970 s and early 1980 s as his preceding discussion intended but failed to indicate clearly only in this later period of volatile exchange rates and price level instability in the united states do alternative hard currencies such as the yen and deutsche mark become competitive as international stores of value and units of account hence international currency substitution associated with the ebb and flow of speculation against or for the dollar significantly destabilized the demand for mlus in the 1970 s and 1980 s and only in this later period might one expect the sum of these internationally substitutable monies ml to predict world and perhaps even american price inflation better than does mlus in contrast during the strong dollar standard of the 1950 s and 1960 s the dollar was unchallenged as international money exchange rates were by and large convincingly fixed speculation for or against the dollar was incapable of substantially altering u s interest rates or of directly affecting the demand for mlus because cyclical international influences did not then destabilize the demand for dollars mlus was by itself a fairly efficient predictor of american prices thus ross s statistical results for the period 1960 to 1980 show somewhat greater predictive strength in mlus compared to ml because the 1960 s data outweigh the dissimilar data of the 1970 s let us instead partition the sample of imf data around the year 1970 whence began the transition from fixed to fluctuating exchange rates and the maturation of alternative monetary systems in europe and japan after applying similar statistical correlation procedures to those used by ross we show a striking structural shift in the world s monetary system the explanatory power of mlw increases sharply as that of mlus declines moderately tan 1982 for the early period of 1960 to 1970 table 1 shows simple correlation coefficients between annual percentage changes in money supplies and changes in american and world wholesale price indices the mlus provides a good explanation of u s prices and of world prices one to two years hence whereas the broader definition of mlw in which mlus enters with a 50 percent weight does surprisingly poorly being insignificantly correlated with american or world prices apparently money growth in industrial countries other than the united states was not then an independent source of worldwide inflationary pressure during the strong dollar standard table 2 shows the same simple correlations between percentage changes in prices and money for the weak dollar standard of stanford university please note that a typographical error giving the last word in the original title as market appeared on the cover of the june 1982 issue of this review the title was correct in the table of contents and on the article

trust in a rent seeking world health and government transformed in northeast brazil abstract this article draws lessons from a set of innovative programs carried out by a state government in brazil now widely acclaimed for excellence in public management key to the high performance was strong worker commitment to the job and what the state did to elicit a topic of little note in the development literature but of central importance in the literature of industrial performance and workplace transformation in the industrialized countries the state created an unusual sense of calling among the program s workers new prestige in the communities where they worked and an informed citizenry that both monitored the workers and trusted them

constructing the international foundations of e commerce the eu u s safe harbor arrangement much recent international relations scholarship has argued that states are unable to control e commerce so that private actors are coming to play a dominant role however this body of literature fails to account for emerging hybrid institutions in which states create general frameworks of rules which are then implemented by private actors this article examines a prominent example of such an institution the eu u s safe harbor arrangement in the field of privacy and sets out an alternative explanation of state private actor relations in the sphere of e commerce it shows how safe harbor had its origins in efforts by the european union eu and united states to mitigate problems of interdependence that threatened to undermine the principles of order on which their regulatory systems were based safe harbor reflects neither the eu nor u s approach but rather a novel blend of state and private regulation the article demonstrates the vital role of argument and persuasion in identifying safe harbor as a solution and in negotiating its particulars it finds that conventional game theoretic accounts of bargaining are unable to explain the negotiation of safe harbor and argues that constructivist approaches should pay more attention to how argument can disclose new possibilities of action

the state and industrial strategy abstract the debate about the role of the state in promoting industrial growth in developing economies is reviewed we begin with the ideas of the early development economists of the 1950s and 1960s then take up two waves of neoclassical criticism respectively emphasizing the primacy of the market and the lack of autonomy and competence of the developmentalist state and sketch the elements of a countercritique the fact that all successfully developing economies apply industrial strategies incorporating institutional change is emphasized and boundary conditions and lessons from experience which delimit sensible strategic choices are pointed out

political explanations of macroeconomic management a survey abstract this paper surveys eight overlapping types of political explanation for patterns of macroeconomic management in the third world 1 historical traditions 2 socio structural determinants 3 the self interest of politically powerful sectors 4 entrenched characteristics of the political system 5 formal properties of the political institutions 6 the influence of economic ideologies 7 vicious virtuous circles and 8 a residual category of conjunctural factors it then considers the scope and limitations of such explanations and reassesses the notion of political constraints on economic optimization

government size and economic growth a new framework and some evidence from cross section and time series data a study of the impact of government size on economic performance and growth is important theoretically one point of view suggests that a larger government size is likely to be detrimental to efficiency and economic growth because for example i government operations are often conducted inefficiently ii the regulatory process imposes excessive burdens and costs on the economic system and iii many of government s fiscal and monetary policies tend to distort economic incentives and lower the productivity of the system at the other extreme one can identify some points of view that assign to the government a critical role in the process of economic development and could argue that a larger government size is likely to be a more powerful engine of economic development there are several arguments on which the latter point of view is based these include besides others i role of the government in harmonizing conflicts between private and social interests ii prevention of exploitation of the country by foreigners and iii securing an increase in productive investment and providing a socially optimal direction for growth and development

political aspects of mne theory political behavior by mnes has usually been ignored downplayed or passively treated in dominant economic models of the multinational enterprise in order to remedy this lacuna dunning s eclectic paradigm is expanded to integrate political dimensions in the analysis of ownership internalization and location advantages

market failure and government failure f or several decades a debate has been raging in development economics on the relative virtues of the free market as opposed to state intervention with the help of analytical models of a market economy the interventionists demonstrate what they consider serious instances of market failure that is the inability of a market economy to reach certain desirable outcomes in resource use the protagonists of free markets on the other hand compile impressive lists of ill conceived and counterproductive policy measures implemented by the governments of different countries at various times leading to wasteful use of resources in their economies this debate inevitably remains inlconclusive the analytical results on market failure do not disappear in the face of the evidence that most governments or for that matter most economies of less developed countries with or without state intervention have performed rather badly when there appears to be scope for imnprovement over the market outcome the search for the appropriate corrective measures goes on some protagonists of government failure question the significance of such market failures others voice skepticism about the ability of governments to take any action in the economy which is not counterproductive but none of them seems to be able to explain why a less developed country like india failed to grow during the first half of this century under a non interventionist colonial adnministration thus while the debate goes on neither side succeeds in convincing the other

performance characteristics of hedge funds and commodity funds natural vs spurious biases it is well known that the pro forma performance of a sample of investment funds contains biases these biases are documented in brown goetzmann ibbotson and ross 1992 using mutual funds as subjects the organization structure of hedge funds as private and often offshore vehicles makes data collection a much more onerous task amplifying the impact of performance measurement biases theis paper reviews these biases in hedge funds we also propose using funds of hedge funds to measure aggregate hedge fund performance based on the idea that the investment experience of hedge fund investors can be used to estimate the performance of hedge funds

structural adjustment a survey of the issues and options abstract the article raises and attempts to answer questions such as adjustment for what purpose to what shocks of what factors or forces by whom who loses and who benefits from adjustment and adjustment how it also discusses the question of adjustment when the distinction between external and internal shocks is rejected as neither helpful for the allocation of blame nor for the justification of raising finance an analysis of the impact on the poor is sketched out after a brief discussion of the role of the market and government intervention in adjustment policy and the fallacy of aggregating country policies there follows a discussion of the double paradox of conditionality why should a donor impose conditions that are in the best interest of the recipient and why instead of paying for getting good advice is the recipient rewarded with extra money ten possible reasons are given the paper ends with proposals as to how to overcome the conflict between national sovereignty and assuring that donor money is well spent

hedge fund return dependence model misspecification or liquidity spirals we test whether model misspecification or liquidity spirals primarily explain the observed excess dependence in filtered for economic fundamentals hedge fund index returns and the links between volatility liquidity shocks and hedge fund return clustering evidence supports the model misspecification hypothesis i hedge fund filtered return clustering is symmetric ii filtered short bias fund returns exhibit negative dependence with filtered returns for other hedge fund types iii negative liquidity shocks are associated with clustering in both tails and market volatility subsumes the role of negative liquidity shocks and iv these same patterns appear in size sorted equity portfolios

approximating the asset pricing kernel this article tests a simple consumption based asset pricing model by approximating the true asset pricing kernel using low order orthonormal polynomials based on the model s state variables approximated kernels based solely on next period s consumption growth are not rejected by overall measures of model fit but they produce statistically and economically large pricing errors approximated kernels based on two quarters of future consumption growth and technology shocks have substantially improved overall fit in particular the best of these kernels are capable of eliminating the small firm effect a conventional approach to examining the implications of dynamic asset pricing models is to assume that markets are complete the economy is in equilibrium and that the unique state price deflator can be interpreted as the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution of a representative consumer given assumptions about the form of this unobservable utility function and on the observability of aggregate consumption the model can be tested by examining the conditional or unconditional covariation of estimated intertemporal marginal rates of substitution with measured asset returns the fact that this method of testing dynamic models requires strong assumptions is in and of itself not particularly troubling however the fact that these attempts have been almost uniformly inconsistent with the data on asset returns and consumption is problematic for example when the utility function is assumed to be time and state separable the absolute and relative levels of the real returns on risk free and risky securities see for example mehra and prescott 1985 and weil 1989 are inconsistent with the model s predictions the primary finding from a large literature testing consumption based models is that measured consumption is too smooth to rationalize the observed level and variability of asset returns for reasonable parameterizations of time separable utility functions an alternate approach pursued in this paper is to approximate the stateprice deflator or asset pricing kernel using orthonormal polynomials in a

international influences on the u s economy summary of an exchange in currency substitution and instability in the world dollar standard 1982 ronald mckinnon hypothesized that shifts in international portfolio preferences for dollar assets including bonds destabilized the effective demand for money in the united states from the dollar depreciation of 1971 73 to the great dollar appreciation of 1981 83 these demand shifts were telegraphed by large changes in the dollar exchange rate against other hard currencies they signaled sudden inflation in the united states when the dollar was unexpectedly weak and deflation when the dollar became strong in addition mckinnon argued this ebb and flow in the demand for dollar assets provoked foreign central banks but not the u s federal reserve system to adjust their money growth rates to mitigate these exchange fluctuations consequently since 1970 annual percentage growth in world mi the sum of percentage growths in dollars marks yen sterling and so on fluctuated more than annual money growth in the united states the resulting international business cycle had a first order impact on american income and prices other than discussing some suggestive money and price data for ten industrial countries mckinnon provided no formal econometric testing of his theory this note summarizes an exchange between mckinnon and tan m t and radcliffe warga and willett r w w prompted by the latter s 1984 econometric test of mckinnon s hypothesis copies of the full exchange including new econometric work are available from the authors consider the single equation econometric technique of explaining u s prices or incomes by current or lagged changes in u s ml all authors agree that there was a significant deterioration in the fit of this basic monetary equation from the fixed exchange rate period of 1958 69 to the era of floating rates from 1972 to 1982 by itself american money growth now gives a less satisfactory explanation of cyclical fluctuations in nominal income or prices but how can changing international asset preferences be represented statistically in a mixed exchange rate regime of dirty floating one proxy variable is money growth in the rest of the industrial world mlrow mckinnon 1982 originally hypothesized that world money inclusive of mlrow has a stronger impact on american prices than u s money by itself but this conjecture turns out to be true only for american and world tradable goods prices as approximated by the wholesale price index wpi see mckinnon tan 1983 radcliffe warga and willett correctly pointed out that the influence of mlrow is not helpful in predicting changes in u s nominal gnp myles wallace 1983 showed that domestic price indices such as the american cpi or gnp deflator which have large nontradable components are not well explained by world money r w w s objection is important because monetary variables

a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence this paper presents a theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence political equilibrium depends on the efficiency of each group in producing pressure the effect of additional pressure on their influence the number of persons in different groups and the deadweight cost of taxes and subsidies an increase in deadweight costs discourages pressure by subsidized groups and encourages pressure by taxpayers this analysis unifies the view that governments correct market failures with the view that they favor the politically powerful both are produced by the competition for political favors

cointegration tests of a long run relation between money demand and the effective exchange rate abstract for the period starting with the floating of the us dollar we find evidence that long run stationarity of the demand function for m2 but not m1 requires inclusion of the effective exchange rate these results lend some support to mckinnon s hypothesis that nonstationarity in the demand for money can be resolved by inclusion of the exchange rate jel f41 e41

economic reform in developing countries some conceptual issues abstract this paper is an effort to show that the outcome of stabilization and structural adjustment policies largely based on the neoclassical economic rationale was justifiable neither in terms of the analytical nor the historical literature the very ideological nature and the inherent contradictions of policies inhibited successful implementation and accentuated poverty and inequity in developing countries by drawing on the views of various contemporary schools of economic thought the paper also questions the validity of the international financial institutions claims of consensus on development policy the paper emphasizes that in social science research and more so in policy prescriptions the search for consensus may in fact be futile

technology in a world of national frontiers abstract the accumulation of scientific knowledge and its application to production are accelerating the institutionalization of research in universities and corporate bodies was the first accelerator early in the century nationalism and the intensification of international competition are the current accelerators at the century s end nationalism increasingly drives r d through three mechanisms military rivalry trade rivalry and prestige rivalry the resultant steady rise in oecd countries r d spending as a percentage of gnp is by no means to be automatically applauded in particular it intensifies the problem of the developing countries for technology transfer remains for all the siren talk of alternatives a matter of hard slog learning and the task gets harder and harder

the korean system of innovation and the semiconductor industry a governance perspective1 this paper explores in detail the political institutional processes and governance aspects of the korean system of innovation it shows i how the specific form of corporate governance chaebol evolved out of korea s national political institutional arrangements such as the state firm relationship based on reciprocal subsidy and ii how the dramatic emergence of korean semiconductor firms in world memory chip markets resulted from the subtle and changing interactions of state world market conditions and chaebol governance copyright 1998 by oxford university press

do cio it budgets explain bigger or smaller governments theory and evidence from u s state governments given the recent concern on big governments and rising budget deficits in the united states and european nations there has been a fundamental economic debate on the proper boundary and role of governments in a society inspired by this debate we study the relationship between information technology it and government size drawing on a broad range of the literature from multiple disciplines such as information systems industrial organization and political sciences we present several theoretical mechanisms that explain the impact of it on government expenditures using a variety of data on it spending and state government expenditures we find that greater it investments made by a state chief information officer cio are associated with lower state government spending it is estimated that on average a 1 increase in state cio budgets is associated with a reduction of as much as 3 49 in state overall expenditures this study contributes to the literature by identifying a key technological factor that affects government spending and showing that it investments can be a means to restrain government growth