improving supply chain performance and managing risk under weather related demand uncertainty we consider a manufacturer retailer supply chain for a seasonal product whose demand is weather sensitive the retailer orders from the manufacturer supplier prior to the selling season and then sells to the market we examine how a manufacturer can structure a weather linked rebate to improve his expected profit the proposed class of rebate contracts offers several advantages over many other contract structures including no required verification of leftover inventory and or markdown amounts and no adverse effect on sales effort by the retailer we provide a thorough analysis of the manufacturer s and retailer s decisions in this context we show that the weather linked rebate can take many different forms and this flexibility allows the supplier to design contracts that are pareto improving and or limit his risk in offering the contract and the retailer s risk in accepting it for weather rebates with certain characteristics the manufacturer can fully hedge his risks of offering a weather rebate by paying a risk premium we show how this can be accomplished we also show that the basic structural results extend to settings in which the two parties would like to limit their risk

cores of inventory centralization games abstract consider a set of n stores with single item and single period demands assume an option of centralized ordering and inventory with holding and penalty costs only in this case a cooperative inventory centralization game defines allocations of the cost we examine the conditions under which such an inventory centralization game has a nonempty core we prove the existence of nonempty core for demands with symmetric distributions and the existence of nonempty core for joint multivariate normal demand distribution we establish the equivalency of four different nonempty core conditions for the newsboy problem and demonstrate their efficacy for discrete independent and identically distributed iid demands journal of economic literature classification numbers c44 c62 c71

competition and cooperation in decentralized push and pull assembly systems in this paper we study a decentralized assembly system consisting of a single assembler who buys complementary components from independent suppliers under two contracting schemes push and pull in both schemes the component suppliers are allowed to freely form coalitions or alliances among themselves to better coordinate their pricing or production decisions we show that the sole driver of the inefficiency in a push system which is due to horizontal decentralization of suppliers is the number of alliances that were formed specifically it is shown that in a push system the assembler s profit the total profit of all suppliers and the consumers surplus are all decreasing in the number of coalitions and are thus maximized when the grand coalition is formed we further carry out a stability analysis of coalition structures to verify to what extent suppliers can reduce or eliminate the inefficiency due to their decentralization by forming alliances we show that in a push system with more than two

hedging production risk with options the expected utility maximization problem is solved for producers with both price and production uncertainty who have access to both futures and options markets introduction of production uncertainty alters the optimal futures and options position and almost always makes it optimal for the producer to purchase put options and to underhedge on the futures market simulation results lend support to the practice of hedging the minimum expected yield on the futures market and hedging remaining expected production against downside price risk using put options the results are strengthened if the producer expects local production to influence national prices and if risk aversion is higher at low income levels

on the integration of production and financial hedging decisions in global markets we study the integrated operational and financial hedging decisions faced by a global firm who sells to both home and foreign markets production occurs either at a single facility located in one of the markets or at two facilities one in each market the company has to invest in capacity before the selling season starts when the demand in both markets and the currency exchange rate are uncertain the currency exchange rate risk can be hedged by delaying allocation of the capacity to specific markets until both the currency and demand uncertainties are resolved and or by buying financial option contracts on the currency exchange rate when capacity commitment is made a mean variance utility function is used to model the firm s risk aversion in decision making we derive the joint optimal capacity and financial option decision and analyze the impact of the delayed allocation option and the financial options on capacity commitment and the firm s performance we show that the firm s financial hedging strategy ties closely to and can have both quantitative and qualitative impact on the firm s operational strategy the use or lack of use of financial hedges can go beyond affecting the magnitude of capacity levels by altering global supply chain structural choices such as the desired location and number of production facilities to be employed to meet global demand

stability and endogenous formation of inventory transshipment networks this paper studies a cooperative game of inventory transshipment among multiple firms in this game firms first make their inventory decisions independently and then decide collectively how to transship excess inventories to satisfy unmet demands in modeling transshipment we use networks of firms as the primitive which offer a richer representation of relationships among firms by taking the coalitions used in all previous studies as special cases for any given cooperative network we construct a dual price allocation under which the network is stable for any residual demands and supplies in the sense that no firms find it more profitable to form subnetworks under the allocation based on the marginal contribution of each firm to its network called the mjw value we show that various network structures such as complete hub spoke and chain networks are stable only under certain conditions on residual amounts moreover these conditions differ across network structures implying that a network structure plays an important role in establishing the stability of a decentralized transshipment system finally we consider the case when firms establish networks endogenously and show that pairwise nash stable networks underperform the corresponding networks in centralized systems

a new decision rule for lateral transshipments in inventory systems this paper deals with a single echelon inventory system consisting of a number of parallel local warehouses facing compound poisson demand there are standard holding and backorder costs as well as ordering costs at all warehouses normally the warehouses replenish from an outside supplier however lateral transshipments between the warehouses are also possible such transshipments take no time but incur additional costs when a demand occurs at a warehouse the question is whether the whole demand or part of it should be covered by a lateral transshipment from another warehouse given a set of alternative decisions our decision rule minimizes the expected costs under the assumption that no further transshipments will take place this rule is then used repeatedly as a heuristic a simulation study illustrates how the suggested technique performs under different conditions

operating flexibility global manufacturing and the option value of a multinational network the multinational corporation is a network of activities located in different countries the value of this network derives from the opportunity to benefit from uncertainty through the coordination of subsidiaries which are geographically dispersed we model this coordination as the operating flexibility to shift production between two manufacturing plants located in different countries a stochastic dynamic programming model treats explicitly this flexibility as equivalent to owning an option the value of which is dependent upon the real exchange rate the model is extended to analyze hysteresis effects and within country growth options we show that the management of across border coordination has led to changes in the heuristic rules used for performance evaluation and transfer pricing

buy now and price later supply contracts with time consistent mean variance financial hedging abstract we consider a two stage supply chain comprising one risk neutral manufacturer he and one risk averse retailer she where the manufacturer procures consumption commodities in spot market as major inputs for production and sells the final products to the retailer the retailer then sells the final products to the market at a stochastic clearance price we investigate a flexible price contract that allows the manufacturer to determine the product wholesale price and the retailer to determine the order quantity based on the future spot price of consumption commodities compared with the simple wholesale price contract a win win situation can be achieved under the flexible price contract when the manufacturer s postponed processing cost is lower than a threshold however under this flexible price contract the retailer may suffer from the commodity price volatility even if she does not procure the commodities directly we further investigate how the risk averse retailer conducts mean variance financial hedging by purchasing consumption commodity futures contracts we formulate the problem using a dynamic programming model and derive a closed form time consistent financial hedging policy through numerical experiments we show that the commodity price risk from the manufacturer to the retailer is effectively mitigated with the hedging and the benefits of the flexible price contract are maintained

the amenity value of the british climate this study explores the amenity value of climate to households in britain we employ the hedonic technique and use household panel data to derive the marginal willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables we analyse both the housing and the labour market climate is described in terms of heating cooling degree and rain days evidence suggests that it is the housing market that mainly compensates for climate amenities according to the results the relationship between property prices and climate has an inverted u shape for the sample about 50 per cent of the locations are close to the preferred levels of heating and cooling degree days while the results for rain days are more varied connecting the results to projections of climate change leads to the conclusion that future developments are likely to move a number of households further away from their preferred climate thus leading to larger regional disparities

operations research models for coalition structure in collaborative logistics abstract given a set of players and the cost of each possible coalition the question we address is which coalitions should be formed we formulate mixed integer linear programming models for this problem considering core stability and strong equilibrium the objective function looks for minimizing the total cost allocated among the players concerned about the difficulties of managing large coalitions in practice we also study the effect of a maximum cardinality constraint per coalition we test the models in two applications one is in collaborative forest transportation and the other one in inventory of spare parts for oil operations in these situations collaboration opportunities involving significant savings exist but for several reasons it may be better to group the players in different sub coalitions rather than in the grand coalition the models we propose are thus relevant for deciding how to partition the set of players we also prove that if the strong equilibrium model is feasible its optimal cost is equal to the optimal cost of the core stability model and consequently a coalition structure that solves one problem also solves the other problem we present results that illustrate this property we also present results where the core stability problem is feasible and the strong equilibrium problem is infeasible setting an upper bound on the maximum cardinality of the coalitions allows us to study the marginal savings of enlarging the cardinality of the coalitions we find that the marginal savings of allowing one more player significantly decreases as the bound increases

the value of operational flexibility in the presence of input and output price uncertainties with oil refining applications refining is indispensable to almost every natural resource based commodity industry it involves a series of complex processes that transform inputs with a wide range of quality characteristics into refined finished products sold to end markets in this paper we take the perspective of a profit maximizing refiner that considers upgrading its existing simple refinery to include intermediate conversion flexibility i e the capability of converting heavy intermediate components to light ones we present a stylized two stage stochastic programming model of a petroleum refinery to investigate the value drivers of conversion flexibility and the impact of input and output market conditions on its economic potential conversion flexibility adds value to refineries by either transforming a nonprofitable situation into a profitable one referred to as purchase benefit or improving profitability of an already profitable situation referred to as unit revenue benefit in a real data calibrated numerical study w

farsighted coalitional stability abstract i define the largest consistent set a solution concept which applies to situations in which coalitions freely form but cannot make binding contracts act publicly and are fully farsighted in that a coalition considers the possibility that once it acts another coalition might react a third coalition might in turn react and so on without limit i establish weak nonemptiness conditions and apply it to strategic and coalitional form games and majority rule voting i argue that it improves on the von neumann morgenstern stable set as it is usually defined but is consistent with a generalization of the stable set as in the theory of social situations journal of economic literature classification numbers c70 c71

how firms should hedge substantial academic research explains why firms should hedge but little work has addressed how firms should hedge we assume that firms can experience costly states of nature and derive optimal hedging strategies using vanilla derivatives e g forwards and options and custom exotic derivative contracts for a value maximizing firm facing both hedgable price and unhedgable quantity risks customized exotic derivatives are typically better than vanilla contracts when correlations between prices and quantities are large in magnitude and when quantity risks are substantially greater than price risks finally we discuss how our model may be applied in practice copyright 2002 oxford university press

climbing the property ladder an analysis of market integration in london property prices we investigate the long run convergence of house prices across the london boroughs based on a pairwise unit root probabilistic testing procedure in sharp contrast to the earlier literature we emp

repeated newsvendor game with transshipments under dual allocations abstract we study a repeated newsvendor game with transshipments in every period n retailers face a stochastic demand for an identical product and independently place their inventory orders before demand realization after observing the actual demand each retailer decides how much of her leftover inventory or unsatisfied demand she wants to share with the other retailers residual inventories are then transshipped in order to meet residual demands and dual allocations are used to distribute residual profit unsold inventories are salvaged at the end of the period while in a single shot game retailers in an equilibrium withhold their residuals we show that it is a subgame perfect nash equilibrium for the retailers to share all of the residuals when the discount factor is large enough and the game is repeated infinitely many times we also study asymptotic behavior of the retailers order quantities and discount factors when n is large finally we provide conditions under which a system optimal solution can be achieved in a game with n retailers and develop a contract for achieving a system optimal outcome when these conditions are not satisfied

hedging with price and output uncertainty abstract this paper extends mckinnon s analysis of hedging with price and output uncertainty to the general case where preferences are not necessarily quadratic and probability distribution not necessarily normal

stability and monotonicity in newsvendor situations this study considers a supply chain that consists of n retailers each of them facing a newsvendor problem and a supplier groups of retailers might increase their expected joint profit by joint ordering and inventory centralization however we assume that the retailers impose some level of stock that should be dedicated to them in this situation we show that the associated cooperative game has a non empty core afterwards we concentrate on a dynamic situation where several model cost parameters and the retailers dedicated stock levels can change we investigate how the profit division might be affected by these changes we focus on four monotonicity properties we identify several classes of games with retailers where some of the monotonicity properties hold moreover we show that pairs of cooperative games associated with newsvendor situations do not necessarily satisfy these properties in general when changes in dedicated stock levels are in concern

the risk averse and prudent newsboy the effects of risk and risk aversion in the single period inventory newsboy problem are examined comparative static effects of changes in the various price and cost parameters are determined and related to the newsboy s risk aversion the addition of a random background wealth and of an increase in the riskiness of newspaper demand are also examined although many of the comparative effects generally are ambiguous some fairly simple restrictions on preferences and or risk increases are shown to lead to qualitatively deterministic results

integrated operational and financial hedging with capacity reshoring abstract we consider a multinational corporation that employs capacity reshoring production switching and financial hedging to manage supply demand mismatches and currency risk we optimize mean conditional value at risk cvar by decomposing operations and finance operational flexibility maximizes expected profit subject to a cvar constraint whereas financial hedging minimizes cvar subject to a minimum expected profit we report three main findings first operational flexibility and financial hedging can be complements operational flexibility enhances profitability and reduces downside risk while financial hedging minimizes downside risk and can affect the feasible set of capacity portfolios albeit indirectly by relaxing a cvar constraint second operational flexibility and financial hedging are substitutes in risk reduction though the latter has greater risk reduction effects in cvar when used alone third coordinating operations and finance is crucial for minimizing substitution effects efficient financial hedging depends on rigorous estimation of cash flow distribution as shaped by operational flexibility and a capacity portfolio s feasibility relies on financial hedging because of the cvar constraint

a three stage model for a decentralized distribution system of retailers we present and study a three stage model of a decentralized distribution system consisting ofn retailers each of whom faces a stochastic demand for an identical product in the first stage before the demand is realized each retailer independently orders her initial inventory in the second stage after the demand is realized each retailer decides how much of her residual supply demand she wants to share with the other retailers in the third stage residual inventories are transshipped to meet residual demands and an additional profit is allocated our model is an extension of the two stage model of anupindi et al abz 2001 which implicitly assumes that all residuals enter the transshipment stage we show however that allocation rules in the third stage based on dual solutions which were used in the abz model may induce the retailers to hold back some of their residual supply demand in general we study the effect of implementing various allocations rules in the third stage on the values of the residual supply demand the retailers are willing to share with others in the second stage and the trade off involved in achieving an optimal solution for the corresponding centralized system

catering through nominal share prices we propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices the theory predicts that when investors place higher valuations on low price firms managers respond by supplying shares at lower price levels and vice versa we confirm these predictions in time series and firm level data using several measures of time varying catering incentives more generally the results provide unusually clean evidence that catering influences corporate decisions because the process of targeting nominal share prices is not well explained by alternative theories in frictionless and efficient stock markets there is no optimal nominal pershare stock price a firm s board of directors may choose to split to manage the nominal share price and number of shares outstanding but cannot change its overall market value through these means yet boards typically do manage their firms nominal share price rather than watch it passively drift with returns theories offered to explain share price management include arguments that trading costs depend on nominal prices dolley 1933 angel 1997 that splits signal inside information brennan and copeland 1988 asquith healy and palepu 1989 and ikenberry rankine and stice 1996 or that prices in certain ranges simply constitute a market norm from which there is little gain to deviating rozeff 1998 weld et al 2009 in this paper we propose a catering theory of nominal share prices we define catering as the managerial behavior of increasing the supply of a characteristic that investors appear to be paying a premium for even though that characteristic does not increase fundamental value the catering theory of nominal share prices thus posits that the supply of securities of different price ranges is partly a response to investor demand for securities of different price ranges managers increase the supply of low priced securities

who benefits from transshipment exogenous vs endogenous wholesale prices this paper studies how transshipments affect manufacturers and retailers considering both exogenous and endogenous wholesale prices for a distribution system where a single manufacturer sells to multiple identical cost retailers we consider both the manufacturer being a price taker and the manufacturer being a price setter in a single period setup under multivariate normal demand distribution in the case of the manufacturer being a price taker we provide several analytical results regarding the effects of key parameters on order quantities and profits in the case of the manufacturer being a price setter we characterize the stackelberg game that arises and provide several insights into how the game dynamics are affected by transshipments specifically we find that risk pooling makes retailers order quantities less sensitive to the wholesale price set by the manufacturer hence in general the manufacturer benefits from retailers transshipments by charging a higher wholesale price while retailers are often worse off the paper captures the effect of demand correlation and the effect of the number of retailers throughout and it illustrates the findings by a numerical example we also provide an interactive web page for numerical experiments

capacity decisions with debt financing the effects of agency problem abstract this paper studies the capacity management problem for a firm that uses debt financing this is done by analyzing the effect of the associated agency problem when making capacity decisions the agency problem arises when there are potential conflicts of interest between the firm owner and the lender we show that this agency problem can constrain the firm s optimal capacity decision because the borrowing rate will increase as the risk of default increases with capacity level chosen the firm will therefore try to optimally choose the level so as to reduce the risk of bankruptcy which the lender will take into account and as a consequence the firm will try to control the risk associated with potentially high borrowing costs however even when the expected bankruptcy cost is carefully controlled the optimal capacity decision is still made at the risk of incurring considerable agency costs in addition the corporate tax level can also play a significant role in capacity choice we show that although a higher tax rate leads to bigger tax benefit of debt and lower agency cost it also gives rise to a higher tax liability after balancing the tax benefit of debt with the agency cost the firm can make an optimal decision on the capacity level required the efficacy of financial hedging for mitigating the agency cost is also analyzed finally we compare and contrast our analysis with existing studies and it appears that we have been able to obtain a deeper insight into the problem

efficient supply contracts for fashion goods with forecast updating and two production modes we examine the problem of developing supply contracts that encourage proper coordination of forecast information and production decisions between a manufacturer and distributor of high fashion seasonal products operating in a two mode production environment the first production mode is relatively cheap but requires a long lead time while the second is expensive but offers quick turnaround we focus on contracts of the form w1 w2 b wherewi is the wholesale price offered for production modei andb is a return price offered for items left over at the end of the season we find that such a contract can coordinate the manufacturer and distributor to act in the best interest of the channel the pricing conditions needed to ensure an efficient solution vary depending on the degree of demand forecast improvement between periods and the manufacturer s access to forecast information we also examine whether these conditions ensure a pareto optimal solution with respect to two traditional production settings

the newsvendor problem in a global market optimal centralized and decentralized control policies for a two market stochastic inventory system the global markets of today offer to the style goods producer more selling opportunities and pose new challenges in production planning and coordination from a production management standpoint the opportunity to exploit the difference in timing of the selling season of geographically dispersed markets for style goods is important for improving the firm s profitability in this paper we examine the above issue with an insightful model of a producer of style goods selling the goods to two markets a primary and a secondary market with nonoverlapping selling seasons we refer to this problem as the global newsvendor problem for the above two market stochastic inventory systems we first develop optimal centralized control policies then we demonstrate the suboptimality of decentralized production control policies with the production centers at each market treated as independent profit centers and a constant transfer price being used to coordinate their production we propose as an effective alternative a decentralized production control structure with a nonlinear pricing scheme for production coordination among centers administered through an intermediate organizational unit in our modeling we explicitly consider the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the production planning decisions

trading volume and serial correlation in stock returns this paper investigates the relationship between aggregate stock market trading volume and the serial correlation of daily stock returns for both stock indexes and individual large stocks the first order daily return autocorrelation tends to decline with volume the paper explains this phenomenon using a model in which risk averse market makers accommodate buying or selling pressure from liquidity or noninformational traders changing expected stock returns reward market makers for playing this role the model implies that a stock price decline on a high volume day is more likely than a stock price decline on a low volume day to be associated with an increase in the expected stock return

multiplayer allocations in the presence of diminishing marginal contributions cooperative game analysis and applications in management science we use cooperative game theory to investigate multiplayer allocation problems under the almost diminishing marginal contributions admc property this property indicates that a player s marginal c

new estimates of climate demand evidence from location choice abstract we develop and apply to census data a new method for estimating climate demand the method is useful for ranking quality of life based upon a willingness to pay criterion our two major findings are that the willingness to pay quality of life index is correlated with the hedonic approach s ranking but that the migration approach generates much larger estimates of willingness to pay for a more moderate climate this finding is relevant for evaluating the economic impact of global warming

role of risk aversion in price postponement under supply random yield price postponement is an effective mechanism to hedge against the adverse effect of supply random yield however its effectiveness and the resulting production decisions have not been studied for

large scale service marketplaces the role of the moderating firm recently large scale web based service marketplaces where many small service providers compete among themselves in catering to customers with diverse needs have emerged customers who frequent these marketplaces seek quick resolutions and thus are usually willing to trade prices with waiting times the main goal of this paper is to discuss the role of the moderating firm in facilitating information gathering operational efficiency and communication among agents in service marketplaces surprisingly we show that operational efficiency may be detrimental to the overall efficiency of the marketplace furthermore we establish that to reap the expected gains of operational efficiency the moderating firm may need to complement the operational efficiency by enabling communication among its agents the study emphasizes the scale of such marketplaces and the impact it has on the outcomes this paper was accepted by yossi aviv operations management

risk aversion and expected utility theory a calibration theorem within the expected utility framework the only explanation for risk aversion is that the utility function for wealth is concave a person has lower marginal utility for additional wealth when she is wealthy than when she is poor this paper provides a theorem showing that expected utility theory is an utterly implausible explanation for appreciable risk aversion over modest stakes within expected utility theory for any concave utility function even very little risk aversion over modest stakes implies an absurd degree of risk aversion over large stakes illustrative calibrations are provided

risk aversion in inventory management traditional inventory models focus on risk neutral decision makers i e characterizing replenishment strategies that maximize expected total profit or equivalently minimize expected total cost over a planning horizon in this paper we propose a framework for incorporating risk aversion in multiperiod inventory models as well as multiperiod models that coordinate inventory and pricing strategies we show that the structure of the optimal policy for a decision maker with exponential utility functions is almost identical to the structure of the optimal risk neutral inventory and pricing policies these structural results are extended to models in which the decision maker has access to a partially complete financial market and can hedge its operational risk through trading financial securities computational results demonstrate that the optimal policy is relatively insensitive to small changes in the decision maker s level of risk aversion

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

new estimates of quality of life in urban areas implicit markets capture compensation for intraurban and interregional differe nces in amenities and yield differences in housing prices and wages these pecuniary differences become preference based weights in a qual ity of life index hedonic equations are estimated using microdata fr om the 1980 census and assembled county based amenity data on climati c environmental and urban conditions ranking of 253 urban counties reveals substantial variation within as well as among the 185 urba n areas the quality of life differences across counties within one s msa is almost one half of the difference between the top and bottom ranked counties in the nation copyright 1988 by american economic association

the amenity value of the italian climate the hedonics literature suggests that locations with more favourable characteristics should display compensating wage and house price differentials specifying climate in terms of january and july averages estimates of the marginal willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables are derived using this technique applied to italian data italians would prefer a drier climate during the winter months but higher summertime temperatures are shown to reduce welfare in some locations households would prefer to see clearer skies these results may have relevance to the task of determining the economic impact of future climate change c 2003 elsevier science usa all rights reserved

an integrated model of multinational flexibility and financial hedging abstract we construct a model of a multinational firm with flexibility in sourcing its production and with the ability to use financial markets to hedge exchange rate risk agency costs generated by the firm s capital structure create a link between the firm s financial policy and its production decisions the firm s need for hedging is directly related to the degree of flexibility and the production plan it chooses is a function of the hedging strategy it employs consequently the firm s ability to exploit its competitive position depends upon the degree to which its flexibility is matched by the construction of an appropriate hedging strategy

supply chain network equilibrium with strategic financial hedging using futures abstract in this paper we develop a network equilibrium model for supply chain networks with strategic financial hedging we consider multiple competing firms that purchase multiple materials and parts to manufacture their products the supply chain firms procurement activities are exposed to commodity price risk and exchange rate risk the firms can use futures contracts to hedge the risks our research studies the equilibrium of the entire network where each firm optimizes its own operation and hedging decisions we use variational inequality theory to formulate the equilibrium model and provide qualitative properties we provide analytical results for a special case with duopolistic competition and use simulations to study an oligopolistic case the analytical and simulation studies reveals interesting managerial insights

coalition formation as a dynamic process abstract we study coalition formation as an ongoing dynamic process with payoffs generated as coalitions form disintegrate or regroup a process of coalition formation pcf is an equilibrium if a coalitional move to some other state can be justified by the expectation of higher future value compared to inaction this future value in turn is endogenous it depends on coalitional movements at each node we study existence of equilibrium pcfs we connect deterministic equilibrium pcfs with unique absorbing state to the core and equilibrium pcfs with multiple absorbing states to the largest consistent set in addition we study cyclical as well as stochastic equilibrium pcfs

multiperiod production with forward and option markets production and hedging in both forward and options markets are analyzed for forward looking firms that maximize expected utility in the presence of unbiased forward and options prices it is shown that such firms will use options as hedging instruments this result contrasts with the conclusions from studies that assume myopic behavior and occurs because forward looking agents care about the effect of future output prices on profits from future production cycles simulations support the theoretical results and show how the introduction of an options market influences the optimal forward position

optimal bidding and hedging in international markets this paper examines the optimal bidding and hedging decisions of a risk averse contractor for a construction project abroad we show that currency options play no role as a hedging instrument when the contractor has a quadratic utility function however if the contractor is prudent currency options are used for hedging purposes prudence thus generates a hedging demand for currency options when foreign exchange exposure is uncertain contrary to the conventional wisdom we show that currency hedging may have perverse effects on the contractor s bidding behavior in a canonical example with negative exponential utility functions we demonstrate that the possibilities for the contractor to bid more aggressively in the absence of currency hedging are not factitious

optimal procurement strategies for online spot markets abstract spot markets have emerged for a broad range of commodities and companies have started to use them in addition to their traditional long term procurement contracts forward contracts in comparison to forward contracts spot markets offer products at essentially negligible lead time but typically command a higher expected price for this added flexibility while also exhibiting substantial price uncertainty in our research we analyze the resulting procurement challenge and quantify the benefits of using spot markets from a supply chain perspective we develop and solve mathematical models that determine the optimal order quantity to purchase via forward contracts and the optimal quantity to purchase via spot markets we analyze the most general situation where commodities can be both bought and sold via a spot market and derive closed form results for this case we compare the obtained results to the reference scenario of pure contract sourcing and we include results for situations where the use of spot markets is restricted to either buying or selling only our approaches can be used by decision makers to determine optimal procurement strategies based on key parameters such as demand and spot price volatilities correlation between demand and spot prices and risk aversion the results of our analysis demonstrate that significant profit improvements can be achieved if a moderate fraction of the commodity demand is procured via spot markets the results also show that companies who use spot markets can offer a higher expected service level but that they might experience a higher variability in profits than companies who do not use spot markets we illustrate our analytical results with numerical examples throughout the paper

the use of organized commodity markets to manage food import price instability and risk the article explores the possibility of insuring the price risks of wheat and maize imports of low income food deficit countries lifdcs optimal strategies for an importing agent who hedges with futures and options are derived based on the objective of minimizing the unpredictability of import bills ex post simulations for a set of lifdcs are run on wheat and maize imports hedged with futures and options in the chicago board of trade to explore the extent to which hedging reduces the unpredictability in import bills simulations encompass both periods of normal price behavior as well as the period of global upheaval that occurred in 2007 and 2008 results show that hedging with futures alone affords agents considerable opportunities for reducing import cost unpredictability and the same holds with options albeit to a lesser extent however during the recent price spike of 2007 2008 hedging with options would have increased the unpredictability of some countries maize import bills due to the combination of erratic import patterns and pronounced market uncertainty

transfer of newsvendor inventory and supply risks to sub industry and the public by financial instruments abstract we consider a two stage newsvendor model of a sub industry in which suppliers have short lead time capacity to produce goods for retailers that are selling non identical products we argue that the inventory and supply risks of the newsvendors due to demand uncertainty can be pooled and shared among different supply chains by treating reserved capacity as commodities and trading them as futures and options on futures to hedge the risks the risks will be further shared with and transferred to the public if speculators are allowed to play the game we show that this new mechanism of combining operational and financial risk hedging strategies offers industries a new way to more efficiently meet demand and improve profit

transshipment and its impact on supply chain members performance this note extends some of the key results of dong and rudi 2004 to general demand distributions this generalization is achieved in two steps first we build on the analysis of dong and rudi to demonstrate that an inventory problem with transshipment is equivalent to a newsvendor problem with an adjusted demand then we study the impact of transshipment by comparing the adjusted demand with the original demand in addition to extending the results in the existing literature this note presents a novel approach for analyzing the impact of risk pooling

hedging with commodity options when price distributions are skewed lapan moschini and hanson have demonstrated that commodity options can be useful for hedgers who face a symmetric price distribution and who wish to maintain a net open market position this is because options skew the distribution of profits to the right and such skewness typically increases expected utility in this paper i use standard comparative statics to show that options are relatively more valuable for reducing the skewness of a nonsymmetric price distribution depending on the direction of the skewness and the underlying price expectations hedgers may write options as well as purchase them

integrating long term and short term contracting in beef supply chains this paper analyzes the optimal procurement processing and production decisions of a meat processing company hereafter a packer in a beef supply chain the packer processes fed cattle to produce two beef products program premium boxed beef and commodity boxed beef in fixed proportions but with downward substitution of the premium product for the commodity product the packer can source input fed cattle from a contract market where long term contracts are signed in advance of the required delivery time and from a spot market on the spot day contract prices are taken to be of a general window form linear in the spot price but capped by upper and lower limits on realized contract price our analysis provides managerial insights on the interaction of window contract terms with processing options we show that the packer benefits from a low correlation between the spot price and product market uncertainties and this is independent of the form of the window contract although the expected revenues from processing increase in spot price variability the overall impact on profitability depends on the parameters of the window contract using a calibration based on the report by the gipsa grain inspection packers and stockyards administration 2007 gipsa livestock and meat marketing study vol 3 fed cattle and beef industries report u s department of agriculture washington dc this paper elucidates for the first time the value of long term contracting as a complement to spot sourcing in the beef supply chain our comparative statics results provide some rules of thumb for the packer for the strategic management of the procurement portfolio in particular we show that higher variability higher spot price variability product market variability and correlation increases the profits of the packer but decreases the reliance on the contract market relative to the spot market this paper was accepted by yossi aviv operations management

stable farsighted coalitions in competitive markets in this paper we study dynamic alliance formation among agents in competitive markets we look at n agents selling substitutable products competing in a market in this setting we examine models with deterministic and stochastic demand and we use a two stage approach in stage 1 agents form alliances coalitions and in stage 2 coalitions make decisions price and inventory and compete against one another to analyze the stability of coalition structures in stage 1 we use two notions from cooperative games the largest consistent set lcs and the equilibrium process of coalition formation epcf which allow players to be farsighted thus in forming alliances players consider two key phenomena first players trade off the size of the total profit of the system versus their allocation of this total pie and second they weigh the possibility that an immediate beneficial defection can trigger further counter defections that in the end may prove to be worse than the status quo in particular one such example is that of the grand coalition which we show to be stable in the farsighted sense even though players benefit myopically by defecting from it we also provide conditions under which a situation of a few lone players competing against a large coalition is stable we examine the impact of the size of the market n the degree of competition the effect of cost parameters and the variability of the demand process on the prices inventory levels and structure of the market we discuss the possible strategic implications of our results to firms in a competitive market and for new entrants

inventory control with an exponential utility criterion a base stock policy is shown to be optimal when a dynamic version of the news vendor model is optimized with respect to an exponential utility criterion

formation of alliances in internet based supply exchanges in different industries such as automobiles chemicals or retailing competitors are joining forces in establishing electronic marketplaces to reduce inefficiencies in the purchasing process and cut costs by combining their buying power joining such an alliance leads to reduced costs including those of possible rivals because members share the development and operating costs a company that joins an alliance agrees to share its suppliers with others which may lead to more intense competition among the increased number of suppliers and it may further benefit an alliance member at the expense of companies left outside the alliance natural questions that could arise then are when would a firm prefer to take part in an electronic marketplace joint venture when would it prefer that other firms possibly rivals join the venture and what are the financial consequences of either joining an alliance or remaining independent in an attempt to gain a better understanding of the issues we have developed a model of three retailers whose products may have a certain degree of substitutability we provide some conditions in terms of product substitutability and compatibility of retailers that would lead to the formation of a three member alliance or a two member alliance or no alliance at all we also study the effect of alliance structure and compatibility of retailers on the profit of a company

vertical integration with endogenous contract leadership stability and fair profit allocation abstract this paper studies vertical integration in serial supply chains with a wholesale price contract we consider a business environment where the contracting leader may be endogenously changed before and after forming the integration a cooperative game is formulated to normatively analyze the stable and fair profit allocations under the grand coalition in such an environment our main result demonstrates that vertical integration is stable when all members are pessimistic in the sense that they are sure that they will not become the contracting leader if they deviate from the grand coalition we find that in this case the grand coalition s profit must be allocated more to the retailer and the members with higher costs nevertheless we also show the conditions under which the upstream manufacturer can have strong power as in traditional supply chains

production with risk hedging optimal policy and efficient frontier demand for many products may depend on the price of a tradable asset or on the economy in general for example demand for equipment that plants or harvests corn correlates with the corn price on the commodity market and discount stores experienced increased sales revenue during the last recession thus we model demand as a stochastic process with two components in addition to the usual gaussian component reflecting demand volatility there is a drift component taking the form of a function of a tradable asset price in the case of dependence on the general economy the asset price can be a broad market index such as the s p 500 index with this demand model we study the one time production quantity decision along with a real time risk hedging strategy over a given planning horizon the production cycle pursuing a mean variance formulation we derive the optimal solution to both production and hedging decisions we give a complete characterization of the efficient frontier and quantify the improv

optimal investment in product flexible manufacturing capacity this paper presents a model and an analysis of the cost flexibility tradeoffs involved in investing in product flexible manufacturing capacity flexible capacity provides a firm with the ability to respond to a wide variety of future demand outcomes but at the expense of the increased cost of acquiring flexible manufacturing capacity as compared with dedicated or nonflexible capacity we formulate the product flexible manufacturing capacity investment decision as a two stage stochastic program in the first stage the firm must make its investment decision in manufacturing capacity before the resolution of uncertainty in product demand in the second stage after demand for products are known the firm implements its production decisions constrained by the first stage investments the main contributions of this paper are threefold first we develop a model of the firm s flexible manufacturing investment decision that conceptually captures some of the key characteristics of this complex decision probl

inventory games with permissible delay in payments abstract meca et al 2004 studied a class of inventory games which arise when a group of retailers who observe demand for a common item decide to cooperate and make joint orders with the eoq policy in this paper we extend their model to the situation where retailer s delay in payments is permitted by the supplier we introduce the corresponding inventory game with permissible delay in payments and prove that its core is nonempty then a core allocation rule is proposed which can be reached through population monotonic allocation scheme under this allocation rule the grand coalition is shown to be stable from a farsighted point of view

newsvendor model with random supply and financial hedging utility based approach abstract this paper takes a utility based approach to the single period and single item newsvendor model unlike most models in the literature the newsvendor is not necessarily risk neutral and chooses the order quantity that maximizes the expected utility of the cash flow at the end of the period we suppose that there is uncertainty in demand as well as supply furthermore random demand and supply may be correlated with the financial markets the newsvendor exploits this correlation and manages his risks by investing in a portfolio of financial instruments the decision problem therefore includes not only the determination of the optimal ordering policy but also the selection of the optimal portfolio at the same time we first use a minimum variance approach to select the portfolio the analysis results in some interesting and explicit characterizations on the structure of the optimal policy we also present numerical examples to illustrate the effects of the parameters on the optimal order quantity and the importance of financial hedging on risk reduction

price versus production postponement capacity and competition this article presents a comparative analysis of possible postponement strategies in a two stage decision model where firms make three decisions capacity investment production inventory quantity and price typically investments are made while the demand curve is uncertain the strategies differ in the timing of the operational decisions relative to the realization of uncertainty we show how competition uncertainty and the timing of operational decisions influence the strategic investment decision of the firm and its value in contrast to production postponement price postponement makes the investment and production inventory decisions relatively insensitive to uncertainty this suggests that managers can make optimal capacity decisions by deterministic reasoning if they have some price flexibility under price postponement additional postponement of production has relatively small incremental value therefore it may be worthwhile to consider flexible ex post pricing before production postponement reengineering while more postponement increases firm value it is counterintuitive that this also makes the optimal capacity decision more sensitive to uncertainty we highlight the different impact of more timely information which leads to higher investment and inventories and of reduced demand uncertainty which decreases investment and inventories our analysis suggests appropriateness conditions for simple make to stock and make to order strategies we also present technical sufficiency and uniqueness conditions under price postponement these results extend to oligopolistic and perfect competition for which pure equilibria are derived interestingly the relative value of operational postponement techniques seems to increase as the industry becomes more competitive

firms as buyers of last resort abstract we develop a model to explore the asset pricing implications of firms being buyers of last resort for their own stocks those with more ability to repurchase shares when prices drop far below fundamental value i e less financially constrained firms should have lower short horizon return variances controlling for fundamental variance than other firms using standard proxies for financing constraints such as past repurchases and firm age we find strong support for this predicted relation we also find that this relation is stronger in the u s after 1982 when regulatory reforms lowered the legal cost of conducting repurchases as well as in countries where share repurchases are legally easier to execute

export flexibility and currency hedging this article studies the behavior of an export flexible firm under exchange rate uncertainty we show that the separation theorem holds if selling exclusively in the domestic market is suboptimal even under the most unfavorable spot exchange rate otherwise the firm s optimal output depends on its preferences and on the underlying uncertainty we further show that the full hedging theorem holds only when the firm always finds it optimal to sell its entire output in the foreign market otherwise export flexibility introduces a convexity into the firm s foreign exchange risk exposure which calls for the use of currency options for hedging purposes

valuing operational flexibility under exchange rate risk in this paper we develop a stochastic dynamic programming formulation for the valuation of global manufacturing strategy options with switching costs overall we adopt a hierarchical approach first exchange rates are modeled as stochastic diffusion processes that exhibit intercountry correlation second the firm s global manufacturing strategy determines options for alternative product designs as well as supply chain network designs product options introduce international supply flexibility supply chain network options determine the firm s manufacturing flexibility through production capacity and supply chain network linkages third switching costs determine the cost of operational hedging i e the costs associated with reducing downside risks overall the firm maximizes its expected discounted global after tax value through the exercise of product and supply chain network options and or through exploitation of operational flexibility contingent on exchange rate realizations in this environment the firm must trade off fixed operating costs switching costs and the economic benefits derived from exploiting differentials in factor costs and corporate tax rates a multinomial approximation of correlated exchange rate processes is proposed that leads to a consistent and tractable lattice model for this compound option valuation problem we then demonstrate how the global manufacturing strategy planning model framework can be utilized to analyze financial and operational hedging strategies

inventory sharing and rationing in decentralized dealer networks an increasing number of manufacturers have started to pursue a strategy that promotes inventory sharing among the dealers in their distribution network in this paper we analyze a decentralized dealer network in which each independent dealer is given the flexibility to share his inventory we model inventory sharing as a multiple demand classes problem in which each dealer faces his own customer demand with high priority and inventory sharing requests from other dealers with low priority assuming that each dealer uses a base stock and threshold rationing policy for his inventory stocking and inventory sharing decisions we explicitly model the interactions between the dealers through inventory sharing and obtain aclosed form cost function for each dealer based on the steady state distribution of the inventory levels at the two dealers we then provide a detailed supermodularity analysis of the inventory sharing and inventory rationing game in which each dealer has a two dimensional strategy set stocking level and rationing level we show that the full sharing game in which dealers precommit to sharing all of their on hand inventory and the fixed sharing level game in which dealers precommit to sharing a portion of their on hand inventory are supermodular and thus a pure strategy nash equilibrium is guaranteed to exist for the rationing game in which dealers precommit to their stocking levels we show that there exists a dominant strategy equilibrium on the dealers sharing rationing levels finally a comprehensive computational study is conducted to highlight the impact of the manufacturer s incentives subsidies and or transshipment fees on the dealers sharing behavior

operational flexibility and financial hedging complements or substitutes we consider a firm that invests in capacity under demand uncertainty and thus faces two related but distinct types of risk mismatch between capacity and demand and profit variability whereas mismatch risk can be mitigated with greater operational flexibility profit variability can be reduced through financial hedging we show that the relationship between these two risk mitigating strategies depends on the type of flexibility product flexibility and financial hedging tend to be complements substitutes i e product flexibility tends to increase decrease the value of financial hedging and vice versa financial hedging tends to increase decrease the value of product flexibility when product demands are positively negatively correlated in contrast to product flexibility postponement flexibility is a substitute to financial hedging as intuitively expected although our analytical results assume perfect flexibility and perfect hedging and rely on a linear approximation of the value of hedging we validate their robustness in an extensive numerical study

transshipment of inventories among retailers myopic vs farsighted stability the author considers a model of a decentralized distribution system consisting of n retailers selling an identical product retailers face a stochastic demand and must order their initial inventory before this demand is realized after demand realization retailers decide how much of their unsold inventory or unsatisfied demand they want to share with other retailers this is followed by a transshipment of leftover inventories and distribution of the additional profit generated through inventory sharing the author addresses the following issue suppose that the retailers distribute the profit from inventory sharing according to an allocation rule that induces retailers to share their residuals in a way that maximizes the additional profit such as the shapley value but may not belong to the core is it likely that in this framework all retailers will jointly share their residuals and not form subcoalitions previous research has looked at this problem from a myopic viewpoint and concluded that the grand coalition is not stable unlike the prior work the author looks at stability in a farsighted sense that is retailers do not consider only their immediate payoffs but are also concerned with reactions of other retailers to their actions in a symmetric setting with identical additional unit revenues from transshipments generated by all retailers farsighted retailers always maximize their allocations by not defecting from the grand coalition the author also provides conditions when the same is true for nonidentical additional unit revenues

on the determinants of corporate hedging finance theory indicates that hedging increases firm value by reducing expected taxes expected costs of financial distress or other agency costs this paper provides evidence on these hypotheses using survey data on firm s use of forwards futures swaps and options combined with computstat data on firm characteristics of 169 firms in the sample 104 firms use hedging instruments in 1986 the data suggest that firms which hedge face more convex tax functions have less coverage of fixed claims are larger have more growth options in their investment opportunity set and employ fewer hedging substitutes

stochastic economic assessment of afforestation on marginal land in irrigated farming system we analysed the economic viability of afforestation on marginal irrigated croplands in irrigated drylands of uzbekistan the revenues derived from a combination of diversified agricultural production carbon sequestration nitrogen fixation and avoided irrigation water use were analysed considering uncertainty associated with on farm activities such as crop production and short rotation forestry at the per hectare scale variability in land use revenues would necessitate substantial increases in carbon prices for afforestation to be as profitable as crop cultivation on marginal lands assuming an abundant irrigation water supply in contrast at the farm scale the analysis results revealed that afforestation can be attractive financially even without carbon payments due to farm production constraints variable land use returns and the benefits of land use diversification increased carbon prices would promote carbon sequestration by motivating farmers to plant high biomass producing tree species but would have an ecosystem service trade off by reducing the appeal of nitrogen fixing species that are essential for nitrogen self sufficiency of afforestation efforts given the modest irrigation needs of afforestation efforts compared to the cultivation of annual crops tree plantations could become a primary income source for farms during periods of drought irrigation water saved from replacing crops with trees on marginal farmland would enhance the cultivation of commercial crops on productive lands thus increasing farm income