the fiscal impact of immigration in france a generational accounting approach the objective of this study is to use both static and dynamic frameworks to compare the benefits that immigrants draw from the public system with their contributions through the taxes that they pay the main conclusion of this paper is that the impact of immigration on welfare systems is weak thus if we compare on a given date immigrants global contribution to the public administration budget with the volume of transfers they receive immigrants appear to be relatively favoured by the redistribution system at the same time even if immigrants seem to pay less taxes and receive more transfers than natives the difference in distribution between the two populations with a higher concentration of immigrants in the active age groups and a sparser concentration among the net beneficiaries of the social transfer system leads to a slightly positive long term impact of immigration on public finances however the impact of immigration remains very slight compared with the global effort that would have to be undertaken to reduce budgetary imbalances

using operating cash flow data to predict financial distress some extensions recently financial statement users and regulators of publicly reported financial accounting data have argued in favor of the disclosure of detailed information on firms current operating cash flows harris et al 1980 fasb 1981 smith 1982 and thomas 1982 the fasb suggests that such disclosures will allow users to assess better the amount timing and uncertainty of future cash flows it states that the greater the amount of future net cash inflows from operations the greater the ability of the enterprise to withstand adverse changes in operating conditions 1981 p 11 the presumption that historical operating cash flows enable better assessments of future cash flows however is based on intuition rather than on empirical evidence griffin 1982 our study was conducted to assess whether operating cash flow data and related measures lead to more accurate predictions of bankrupt and

el salvador s agricultural sector macroeconomic policy agrarian change and the environment abstract this paper argues that current agricultural policy in el salvador is failing to further the goals of macroeconomic growth and stability sustainable livelihood security and environmental sustainability macroeconomic policy has turned relative prices sharply against agriculture the plight of the rural poor has been exacerbated by continuing inequities in the agrarian structure the breakdown in rural livelihoods and limited access to land and other assets is accelerating environmental degradation suggested alternative policies such as more favorable price policies agrarian reform and environmental restoration would promote sustainable development by capitalizing on the complementarity among growth poverty reduction and consolidation of peace

crude oil corn ethanol nexus a contextual approach this paper offers a holistic study on the complex relationships between crude oil corn and ethanol during a turbulent period between 2006 and end of 2011 through a holistic mapping of the current market situation and a contextual analytical design we show that there exists a strong relationship between crude oil and corn markets on one side and crude oil and ethanol on the other however the price relationship between corn and ethanol was revealed to be less straightforward and is driven by the us government fuel policy furthermore the study indicates that corn markets have became more prone to volatility due to ethanol production especially when the demand for corn is high and or the crude oil prices are high enough to create a competitive market for ethanol

macroeconomic policy and the salvadoran peace accords abstract we analyze the relationship between macroeconomic policies and the implementation of the peace agreement that ended civil war in el salvador we review recent stabilization and adjustment policies and identify potential impediments to sustained growth we observe that the agreement mandated thorough going democratization of political institutions but its socioeconomic reforms promised little more than excombatants reintegration into civilian life the poverty and inequality impelling the war were not addressed we analyze the political bargaining governing the agreement s uneven implementation and conclude that the macroeconomic policy environment of austerity rather than resource constraints per se impeded its timely implementation

index investment and financialization of commodities the authors found that concurrent with the rapidly growing index investment in commodity markets since the early 2000s prices of non energy commodity futures in the united states have become incr

on the links between stock and commodity markets volatility this paper investigates the links between price returns for 25 commodities and stocks over the period from january 2001 to november 2011 by paying a particular attention to energy raw materials relying on the dynamic conditional correlation dcc garch methodology we show that the correlations between commodity and stock markets evolve through time and are highly volatile particularly since the 2007 2008 financial crisis the latter has played a key role emphasizing the links between commodity and stock markets and underlining the financialization of commodity markets at the idiosyncratic level a speculation phenomenon is highlighted for oil coffee and cocoa while the safe haven role of gold is evidenced

on the dynamic dependence between equity markets commodity futures and economic uncertainty indexes this paper provides a thorough analysis on multiscale dependence schemes between equity markets commodity futures and uncertainty indexes based on decomposed return series we provide an exhausti

distributional implications of macroeconomic policy theory and applications to el salvador abstract this article offers a theoretical framework for designing macroeconomic strategy for el salvador that will both respect stabilization and structural adjustment needs and enhance social equity after outlining the largely negative distributional implications of the orthodox policies followed by el salvador in recent years we argue that stabilization and efficiency could actually be improved by increased equity and sketch out the elements of an alternative approach that would be distributionally sensitive and thereby help consolidate the peace

explaining the relative decline of agriculture a supply side analysis for indonesia the relative decline of agriculture in growing economies is a central feature of economic development and a major influence on agricultural policies the literature on the causes of this decline has focused on the relative price effects arising from demand factors especially engel s law rather than on supply side influences such as changes in relative factor endowments and differential rates of technical change this article develops a simple structural model of the transformation of the indonesian economy applying an error correction mechanism to capture the dynamics resulting from disequilibria and the costs of adjustment the decline in agriculture s share of gross domestic product is found to be caused much less by the relative price effects typically emphasized in the literature than by capital accumulation and rapid technical change in agriculture

the relationship between energy and equity markets evidence from volatility impulse response functions this paper examines the relationship between the energy and equity markets by estimating volatility impulse response functions from a multivariate bekk model of the goldman sach s energy index and the sp in addition we also calculate the time varying conditional correlations and time varying dynamic hedge ratios from volatility impulse response functions we find that low sp however we find only a weak response from s p 500 volatility to energy price shocks moreover our dynamic hedge ratio analysis suggests that the energy index is generally a poor hedging instrument

inertia and change in the early years employment relations in young high technology firms this paper considers processes of organizational imprinting in a sample of 100 young high technology companies it examines the effects of a pair of initial conditions the founders models of the employment relation and their business strategies our analyses indicate that these two features were well aligned when the firms were founded however the alignment has deteriorated over time due to changes in the distribution of employment models in particular the star model and commitment model are less stable than the engineering model and the factory model despite their instability these two blueprints for the employment relation have strong effects in shaping the early evolution of these firms in particular firms that embark with these models have significantly higher rates of replacing the founder chief executive with a non founder as well as higher rates of completing an initial public stock offering some implications of these findings for future studies of imprinting and inertia in organizations are discussed

tail events a new approach to understanding extreme energy commodity prices abstract this paper shows that extreme energy price changes located in the 10 tails of the distribution cluster across energy futures markets during the boom bust cycle of 2006 to 2012 using multinominal logit regressions we find that the coincidence of such tail events cannot be explained solely by common supply and demand fundamentals instead we provide evidence that the transmission of extreme price changes occurs through a financial demand channel specifically changes in the net long position of hedge funds are associated with a significant increase in the probability of coincident large positive and negative returns across energy markets evidence that index investments drive tail events is limited further we identify adverse shocks to speculator funding liquidity as determinant of synchronized price drops across energy markets the likelihood of extreme negative returns in more than one market significantly increases when the ted spread rises

a variance spillover analysis without covariances what do we miss we evaluate the relevance of covariances in the transmission mechanism of variance spillovers across the us stock us bond and gold markets from july 2003 to december 2012 for that purpose we perform a comparative spillover analysis between a model that considers covariances and a model that considers only variances our results emphasise the importance of covariances including covariances leads to an overall increase of the spillover level and detects the beginnings of the financial crisis and of the us debt ceiling crisis earlier than the spillover measure that considers only variances even for the low dimensional system that we consider one misses important variance spillover channels when covariances are excluded

how do great shocks influence the correlation between oil and international stock markets abstractwe investigate the impacts of great shocks 2003 iraq war and 2008 financial crisis on the correlations between oil and us china stock markets utilizing a novel madcc mixed asymmetry dynamic conditional correlation model this model successfully captures the coexistence of opposite signed asymmetries we find that great shocks indeed increased the correlations further results from the news impact surfaces indicate that correlations between oil and stock markets are higher to joint negative shocks however correlation between stock markets has stronger response to joint positive shocks

time varying volatility spillover between chinese fuel oil and stock index futures markets based on a dcc garch model with a semi nonparametric approach abstract this paper reveals some new evidence on the volatility spillover between fuel oil and stock index futures markets in china by considering its time variant feature time varying effect is specified by the legendre polynomials in a dcc garch model moreover the semi nonparametric snp approach accounting for marginal excess kurtosis and asymmetry is applied we find different time evolving patterns of volatility spillover across multiple periods due to the structural breaks the direction of mean volatility spillover is found to be bilateral moreover the strength of mean volatility spillover shows that the effect from stock index to fuel oil futures is much stronger than the other way around this implies that the stock index futures market plays a leading role in information processing these findings have important implications for the fuel oil stakeholders as well as risk management

volatility behavior of oil industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime switching environment abstract this study supplements previous regime switching studies on wti crude oil and finds two possible volatility regimes for the strategic commodity prices of brent oil wti oil copper gold and silver and the s p 500 index but with varying high to low volatility ratios the dynamic conditional correlations dccs indicate increasing correlations among all the commodities since the 2003 iraq war but decreasing correlations with the s p 500 index the commodities also show different volatility persistence responses to financial and geopolitical crises while the s p 500 index responds to both financial and geopolitical crises implications are discussed

oil price and financial markets multivariate dynamic frequency analysis the aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries oil importers and oil exporters to this end we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series we use the frequency approach proposed by priestley and tong 1973 that is the evolutionary co spectral analysis this method allows us to distinguish between short run and medium run dependence in order to complete our study by analysing long run dependence we use the cointegration procedure developed by engle and granger 1987 we find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters markets than in the importers ones

the transmission from equity markets to commodity markets in crises periods abstractthis article investigates the transmission from equity markets to commodity markets during two major financial crises namely the subprime mortgage and the sovereign debt crises we perform an analysis on sub stages from 3 january 2003 to 31 october 2013 to capture the price behaviour of both equity and commodity markets two financial crises indicators vix and cds are used to represent fear of a crisis we find that correlations between commodity and equity markets are time varying and highly volatile during a financial crisis while sharing some common features commodities cannot be considered a homogeneous asset class segmentation characteristics of commodity markets disappear in times of financial crises reducing their substitutability as an investment portfolio for asset diversification purposes through our test for granger causality we find the existence of transmission during a financial crisis volatility spillover effect also plays a major role as transmission mechanisms after the

exogenous shocks and the spillover effects between uncertainty and oil price this paper evaluates the information spillover between equity related uncertainty and the oil price before and after the 2008 global financial crisis and the effects of exogenous shocks on the pattern of information spillover in particular we investigate mean and volatility spillovers between uncertainty and the oil price with and without exogenous shocks by using a bivariate egarch model there are two main findings in our paper first the evidence ensures significant information transmission between equity related uncertainty and the oil price and shows remarkable differences in transmission patterns before and after the crisis second the results show that exogenous shocks can intensify information transmission between oil prices and uncertainty in terms of both the mean and volatility spillover effects moreover exogenous shocks exhibit direct spillover effects on oil prices

inequality as a cause of environmental degradation abstract this paper advances two hypotheses first the extent of an environmentally degrading economic activity is a function of the balance of power between the winners who derive net benefits from the activity and the losers who bear net costs second greater inequalities of power and wealth lead all else equal to more environmental degradation

the benefits of strategic homogeneity and strategic heterogeneity theoretical and empirical evidence resolving past differences past research on the relationship between strategic variety and industry profitability has argued for either high homogeneity or high heterogeneity in this paper we review the literature on strategic variety and use it to develop hypotheses suggesting that the relationship between strategic variety and average industry profits is curvilinear based on our analysis of 61 industries we find empirical support for our hypotheses suggesting that very high levels of heterogeneity or homogeneity are more likely associated with industry profitability while the industries in our sample displaying moderate levels of strategic variety are most likely to suffer from widespread financial losses

social capital structural holes and the formation of an industry network the formation of a network is determined by the opposition of two forces the first is the reproduction of network structure as a general social resource for network members the second is the alteration of network structure by entrepreneurs for their own benefit the idea of reproduction is a conventional one in organizational sociology but has taken on increased importance due to the work of bourdieu and coleman in contrast burt stresses the entrepreneurship of individual agents in exploiting structural holes that lie between constrained positions though complementary the theories of social capital and structural holes have fundamentally different implications for network formation this paper investigates these theories by examining empirically the formation of the interorganizational network among biotechnology firms we propose that network structure determines the frequency with which a new biotechnology firm or startup establishes new relationships network structure indicates both where soci

on the short and long run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets this article contributes to the related literature by empirically investigating the efficiency of nine energy and precious metal markets over the last decades employing several pronounced models we test for both short and the long run efficiency using in addition to linear cointegration models nonlinear cointegration and error correction models ecms which allow the efficiency intensity to change per regime our findings can be summarized as follows i futures prices are found to be cointegrated with spot prices but they do not constitute unbiased predictors of future spot prices ii the hypothesis of risk neutrality is rejected iii the short run efficiency hypothesis is rejected suggesting that using past futures price returns improves the modeling and forecasting of future spot prices and iv the nonlinear modeling suggests the presence of two distinct regimes wherein the first regime the efficiency hypothesis is supported whereas in the second it is rejected the empirical findings have important implications for producers hedgers speculators and policymakers

adjustment toward peace an introduction abstract the recent experience of el salvador offers valuable lessons for economic policy in post conflictual transitions in the wake of a negotiated settlement to a civil war economic policy must support the adjustment toward peace in the short run policy must promote not only macroeconomic stabilization but also political stabilization this requires the mobilization of resources and the maintenance of political will for implementation of immediate peace related needs such as the reintegration of excombatants into civil society and the strengthening of democratic institutions long run policy objectives must encompass not only the attainment of macroeconomic balances but also equity that is balance in the distribution of income and wealth balanced investment in human natural and physical capital and democratization in the broad sense of a more balanced distribution of power in the end policies which fail to build on the crucial complementarities between peace and development are unlikely to achieve either goal

optimal food price stabilization in a small open developing country in poor countries most governments implement policies aiming to stabilize the prices of staple foods which often include storage and trade measures insulating their domestic market from the world market it is of crucial importance to understand the precise motivations and efficiency of those interventions because they can have consequences worldwide this paper addresses those issues by analyzing the case of a small open developing country confronted by shocks to both the crop yield and foreign price in this model government interventions may be justified by the lack of an insurance market for food prices considering this market imperfection the authors design optimal public interventions through trade and storage policies they show that an optimal trade policy largely consists of subsidizing imports and taxing exports which benefits consumers at the expense of producers import subsidies alleviate the non negativity of food storage in other words when stocks are exhausted subsidizing imports prevents domestic price spikes one striking result an optimal storage policy on its own is detrimental to consumers since its stabilizing benefits leak into the world market and it raises the average domestic price by contrast an optimal combination of storage and trade policies results in a powerful stabilizing effect for domestic food prices

effort technology and the efficiency of agricultural cooperatives abstract the inefficiency of cooperative agriculture relative to private farms is often attributed to difficulties in monitoring or poor incentives we develop a model to show that in technologies with numerous sequential steps even small shortfalls in worker effort can result in large output declines using data on cooperative and private farms in el salvador we find greater shortfalls in efficiency between cooperatives and private farms as well as among cooperatives for coffee a crop requiring numerous steps in its cultivation than for maize and sugar which require fewer steps thus the undersupply of effort in cooperatives may be less than differences in productivity suggest and cooperative agriculture is most likely to be successful where production does not involve many sequential steps

oil price shocks and stock markets in the u s and 13 european countries abstract oil price shocks have a statistically significant impact on real stock returns contemporaneously and or within the following month in the u s and 13 european countries over 1986 1 2005 12 norway as an oil exporter shows a statistically significantly positive response of real stock returns to an oil price increase the median result from variance decomposition analysis is that oil price shocks account for a statistically significant 6 of the volatility in real stock returns for many european countries but not for the u s increased volatility of oil prices significantly depresses real stock returns the contribution of oil price shocks to variability in real stock returns in the u s and most other countries is greater than that of interest rate an increase in real oil price is associated with a significant increase in the short term interest rate in the u s and eight out of 13 european countries within one or two months counter to findings for the u s and for norway there is little evidence of asymmetric effects on real stock returns of positive and negative oil price shocks for oil importing european countries

isolating the network effect of immigrants on trade within the migration trade nexus literature this paper proposes a more carefully defined measure of migration business networks and quantifies its impact on bilateral trade using cross sectional data and controlling for the overall bilateral stock of migrants the share of migrants employed in managerial business related occupations has a strong additional effect on trade those immigrants should be the ones directly involved in the diffusion and transmission of information relevant for companies trading with other countries their presence is found to increase the volume of trade especially of imports beyond the already known effect of immigrants or highly educated immigrants when we control for the presence of highly educated immigrants the share of immigrants in business network occupations shows a particularly large effect on trade in differentiated goods we also find that highly educated individuals in business related occupations are those contributing to stimulate import and export by the largest margin business network effects seem particularly important in stimulating exports to culturally different countries such as those with different language and legal origin

interaction between oil and us dollar exchange rate nonlinear causality time varying influence and structural breaks in volatility abstractthis article examines the nonlinear granger causality and time varying influence between crude oil prices and the us dollar usd exchange rate using the hiemstra and jones hp test the diks and panchenko dp test and the time varying parameter structural vector autoregression model by applying the iterated cumulative sums of squares icss algorithm and the dcc garch model the effects of structural breaks in volatility of the two markets are also investigated the empirical analysis indicates that first crude oil prices are the nonlinear granger cause of the usd exchange rate but not vice versa second the usd exchange rate exerts a stronger and more stable negative influence on crude oil prices in the short term and the influence gradually weakens after 2012 finally ignoring structural breaks can increase the negative volatility correlation between the oil and usd exchange rate markets which is particularly remarkable during the financial crisis

time and frequency dynamics of connectedness between renewable energy stocks and crude oil prices abstract this paper examines the time and frequency dynamics of connectedness among stock prices of u s clean energy companies crude oil prices and a number of key financial variables using the methodology developed by barunik and krehlik 2018 this approach allows measuring the dynamics of return and volatility connectedness over time and across frequencies simultaneously the empirical results show that most of return and volatility connectedness is generated in the very short term i e movements up to five days while the long term plays a minor role our analysis further reveals a greater degree of interconnectedness across crude oil and financial markets since the onset of the u s subprime mortgage crisis in summer of 2007 consistent with the view of a global re pricing of risk triggered by the recent worldwide financial crisis crude oil prices do not appear as a key driver of the stock market performance of renewable energy companies in the short term or the long term which suggests a decoupling of the alternative energy industry from the traditional energy market moreover crude oil prices are a net receiver of financial shocks supporting the financialization of the commodity markets since the early 2000s in addition a significant pairwise connectedness is found mainly in the short term between clean energy and technology stock prices indicating that these two types of stocks are perceived by investors as similar assets these results can have important practical implications for investors and policy makers with different time horizons

true or spurious long memory in volatility further evidence on the energy futures markets abstract the main goal of this paper is to investigate whether the long memory behavior observed in many volatility energy futures markets series is a spurious behavior or not for this purpose we employ a wide variety of advanced volatility models that allow for long memory and or structural changes the garch 1 1 the figarch 1 d 1 the adaptative garch 1 1 k and the adaptative figarch 1 d 1 k models to compare forecasting ability of these models we use out of sample forecasting performance using the crude oil heating oil gasoline and propane volatility futures energy time series with 1 month and 3 month maturities we found that five out of the eight time series are characterized by both long memory and structural breaks for these series dates of breaks coincide with some major economics and financial events for the three other time series we found strong evidence of long memory in volatility

the evolution of collective strategy frames in high and low velocity industries we argue that the collective assumptions of firms drive their actions and practices and create the conditions of industry velocity in our view cognitive construction by firms is the primary driver of industry velocity this is in contrast to the contingency views common in the literature which hold that industry velocity plays a role by constraining and shaping firm strategies specifically we suggest that firms develop unique assumptions social networks and feedback mechanisms that these mechanisms perpetuate patterns of changes in collective beliefs and aggregate actions and that these patterns in turn shape high and low velocity conditions we examine these assertions by tracing the collective beliefs of three aircraft low velocity and semiconductor high velocity firms over a 20 year period 1977 1997 our results suggest that the cognitive construction view of industry velocity is reasonable

on the dynamic links between commodities and islamic equity abstract this paper investigates whether commodities offer potential diversification benefits for islamic equity index investors in light of possible financialization of commodity markets using mgarch dcc and wavelet coherence analyses our findings reveal that correlations between commodity markets and the dow jones islamic market world index are time varying and highly volatile throughout the january 1999 april 2015 period a substantial and persistent increase was observed in the return correlations between commodities and islamic equity at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis however trends in the recent two years suggest that this association is heading towards its pre crisis levels offering again diversification benefits for islamic equity holders these benefits vary across different commodities in various time scales overall gold natural gas soft commodities grains and livestock are better portfolio diversifiers than oil and other metals relative to medium to long term investors short term investors less than 32 days horizon gained better diversification benefits in most commodities during bullish bearish and market recovery periods these findings have implications for investors who are heterogeneous in risk tolerance and time preference as well as for policymakers who are concerned with market stability

time varying co movements between energy market and global financial markets implication for portfolio diversification and hedging strategies abstract this study explores the time patterns of volatility spillovers between energy market and stock prices of seven major global financial markets including clean energy energy information technology corporations equity markets and united states economic policy index over the period vary from december 28 2000 to december 31 2018 we employ a time domain connectedness measures of diebold and yilmaz dy 2009 2012 and 2014 to examine spillover mechanism of volatility shocks across future markets optimal weights and hedge ratios are calculated for portfolio diversification and risk management the main findings of the study conclude that oil shocks are exogenous and contribution of oil market volatility to global financial markets is insignificant the returns of world stock index and world energy index are major transmitters of volatility to clean energy market moreover the impact of energy market become strong in global financial market when data is divided into pre during and post financial crisis periods finally the hedge ratios are volatile over time and their maximum value is observed during the financial crisis period of 2008 09 the optimal portfolio between energy and stock prices are heavily weighted to the stock markets

dynamic capabilities what are they this paper focuses on dynamic capabilities and more generally the resource based view of the firm we argue that dynamic capabilities are a set of specific and identifiable processes such as product development strategic decision making and alliancing they are neither vague nor tautological although dynamic capabilities are idiosyncratic in their details and path dependent in their emergence they have significant commonalities across firms popularly termed best practice this suggests that they are more homogeneous fungible equifinal and substitutable than is usually assumed in moderately dynamic markets dynamic capabilities resemble the traditional conception of routines they are detailed analytic stable processes with predictable outcomes in contrast in high velocity markets they are simple highly experiential and fragile processes with unpredictable outcomes finally well known learning mechanisms guide the evolution of dynamic capabilities in moderately dynamic markets the evolutionary emphasis is on variation in high velocity markets it is on selection at the level of rbv we conclude that traditional rbv misidentifies the locus of long term competitive advantage in dynamic markets overemphasizes the strategic logic of leverage and reaches a boundary condition in high velocity markets copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty abstract while there exists numerous studies on the macroeconomic effects of oil and commodity shocks the literature is quite silent on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on oil and commodity prices and especially on their volatility this paper tackles this issue through the estimation of a structural threshold vector autoregressive tvar model on a sample of 19 commodity markets we aim at i assessing whether the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty shocks on commodity price returns depends on the degree of uncertainty and ii investigating the transfer from macroeconomic uncertainty to price uncertainty using a newly developed measure of commodity price uncertainty our findings show that both agricultural and industrial markets are highly sensitive to the variability and the level of macroeconomic uncertainty while the impact on precious metals is more parsimonious given their well identified safe haven role in time of economic turmoil in addition we find evidence that the recent 2007 09 recession has generated an unprecedented episode of high uncertainty in numerous commodity prices interestingly our analysis further reveals that volatility and uncertainty in prices can be disconnected this is especially true for the oil market as most important shocks in the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s that lead to price volatility do not generate price uncertainty highlighting the relevance of our uncertainty measure in linking uncertainty to predictability rather than to volatility

oil price shocks stock market economic activity and employment in greece abstract using a multivariate vector autoregression var approach this paper attempts to shed light into the dynamic relationship among oil prices real stock prices interest rates real economic activity and employment for greece the empirical evidence suggests that oil price changes affect real economic activity and employment oil prices are important in explaining stock price movements stock returns do not lead to changes in real activity and employment

investment strategies to combat rural poverty a proposal for latin america abstract the economic crisis that started in 1980 has forced the latin american countries to implement drastic stabilization policies and structural adjustment programs the consequent appreciation of the real exchange rate has transformed agriculture into the most dynamic sector of the economy this creates the possibility of defining a forward looking rural development strategy that is consistent with this new role for agriculture and that has the potential of significantly lessening rural poverty starting from a social poverty map for the rural areas we identify a five pronged approach that includes 1 farm oriented rural development projects for the upper subfamily and family farms 2 household oriented rural development projects for the lower subfamily farms 3 access to addtional assets for the landless and subfamily farmers through land reform and colonization 4 employment creation and labor market rationalization and 5 the promotion of backward forward and final demand linkages with agriculture located in the rural areas

the relationships between petroleum and stock returns an asymmetric dynamic equi correlation approach in this paper we propose an asymmetric dynamic equi correlation adeco model to investigate the correlations between returns of petroleum futures and stock indices our adeco reveals the in sample significant asymmetric effect in oil stock correlations to evaluate out of sample performance we consider a portfolio with petroleum futures and stocks in which the weights are determined by forecasts of covariance matrix we find that adeco provides portfolios with better performances than existing popular deco dcc and adcc models in the minimum variance framework moreover energy price risk can be better hedged by stocks in oil exporting countries than stocks in oil importing countries our findings are further demonstrated to be robust to the change of futures maturity

the simplicity of competitive repertoires an empirical analysis this research explores the notion of competitive simplicity a tendency of some firms to concentrate intensely on just a few central activities our focus here is the simplicity inherent in the repertoire of concrete market oriented actions used by companies to compete these actions include product introductions pricing or advertising decisions and changes in market scope the simplicity of a competitive repertoire can be assessed by its range of actions and its degree of concentration on one or a few dominant types of actions we argue that competitive simplicity is largely a function of organizational and environmental properties that attenuate managerial search or restrict knowledge of competitive alternatives these properties include good performance munificent homogeneous or certain markets a lack of breadth in competitive experiences and the complacency that may accompany age and size paradoxically although good past performance may contribute to simplicity simplicity can hurt subsequent performance especially during periods of uncertainty and growth many of these ideas were borne out in a study of the major carriers of the post deregulation domestic airline industry

u s equity and commodity futures markets hedging or financialization abstract in this paper we investigate the hedging versus the financialization nature of commodity futures vis a vis the equity market using a arma filter based correlation approach our results suggest that while gold futures are typically seen as a hedge against unfavorable fluctuations in the stock market the majority of commodity futures appears to be treated as a separate asset class in line with their increasing financialization our results are robust to the presence of inflation highlight the hedging role played by fuel energy commodity futures in the nineties and reveal that the commodity financialization boosted since the 2000s we also show that gold futures are partially a safe haven for equity investments in the short term but not in the mid term finally we uncover some hedging financialization of crude oil futures associated to global demand oil supply shocks

speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets a bayesian analysis this paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil corn and wheat futures prices from november 1998 to january 2009 model parameters are estimated using bayesian markov chain monte carlo methods speculation scalping and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established including mean reversion an asymmetry between returns and volatility volatility clustering and infrequent compound jumps we find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil corn and wheat markets after the fall of 2006 this can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production

the effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock commodity correlations and its implications on optimal hedging abstract motivated by previous studies documenting significant return and volatility effects of economic policy uncertainty epu on the stock market this study examines whether epu has an effect on the dynamic conditional correlations between stock and commodity returns our findings point to a positive and significant effect of epu on stock commodity correlations with particularly stronger effects in the case of energy and industrial metals the epu effect is stronger during weak economic conditions while vix as a proxy of market uncertainty is generally found to be insignificant finally we show that the epu effect on correlations has investment implications as well implied by a significant effect on optimal hedge ratios in commodities in order to mitigate stock market risks our results underscore the importance of selective hedging strategies in which risk managers base the timing and size of their hedging programs on future price expectations conditional on the level of policy uncertainty state and prevalent economic conditions

volatility spillovers and cross hedging between gold oil and equities evidence from the gulf cooperation council countries the paper examines the return and volatility spillovers between crude oil gold and equities and investigates the usefulness of the two commodities in hedging equity portfolios using daily data from january 20043 to may 2016 for the gulf cooperation council countries a dcc garch model is used to estimate dynamic correlations and hedge ratios we find significant spillovers from oil to equities highlighting the heavy dependence of the local economies on oil moreover the spillovers of gold on the stock markets are insignificant suggesting that gold price fluctuations do not necessarily influence equity investment decisions in the opposite direction we find that equities do not exert significant influence on the two commodities which we attribute to the relatively small capitalisation of the exchanges our results reveal low dynamic correlations and hedge ratios with a few spikes during crises indicating that oil and gold are cheap hedges for stocks albeit not good ones while they could be considered as weak safe havens but at a considerable cost

do high frequency stock market data help forecast crude oil prices evidence from the midas models abstract extensive studies have used stock market information to forecast crude oil prices and stock market can more easily derive high frequency data than crude oil market due to no revisions which raises a question that whether high frequency stock market data can improve the forecast performance of crude oil prices therefore this paper employs the midas model and the high frequency data of four stock market indices to forecast wti and brent crude oil prices at lower frequency the results indicate that the high frequency stock market indices have certain advantage over the lower frequency data in forecasting monthly crude oil prices and the midas model using high frequency data proves superior to the ordinary model

volatility spillovers between crude oil and chinese sectoral equity markets evidence from a frequency dynamics perspective abstract we examine the frequency dynamics of volatility spillovers between crude oil and china s stock markets in a spectral representation framework of generalized forecast error variance decomposition using sectoral stock indices data we find evidence of total volatility spillover driven mainly by short term spillovers the net spillovers of the oil market are almost all positive and dominated by short ter m components although the spillover during china s 2015 financial crisis is negative and attributable to long term components in addition there exists heterogeneity in net pairwise frequency spillovers between the oil and sectoral stock markets moreover structural breaks in volatilities appear to be a significant feature of volatility spillovers finally frequency spillovers in our system can predict future stock market volatility these results have economic implications for investors and policymakers

making sense in hypercompetitive environments a cognitive explanation for the persistence of high velocity competition this paper explores the cognitive aspects underlying industries in hypercompetitive environments hypercompetition represents a state of competition with rapidly escalating levels of competition and reduced periods of competitive advantage for firms in hypercompetitive industries member firms act boldly and aggressively to create a state of competitive disequilibrium in this paper we explore the particular conditions that managers encounter in making sense of hypercompetitive industries and argue that the nature of these conditions is such that conventional sensemaking frameworks will not work we then describe the adaptive sensemaking practices established in the literature for dealing with temporary turbulence and suggest that in hypercompetition those processes continue indefinitely we argue that these processes can become institutionalized as standard operating procedures within firms and as shared recipes within industries which in turn perpetuates hyperturbulent conditions