interpreting economic time series this paper explores some of the implications for econometric practice of the principle that people s observed behavior will change when their constraints change in dynamic contexts a proper definition of people s constraints includes among them laws of motion that describe the evolution of the taxes they must pay and the prices of the goods that they buy and sell changes in agents perceptions of these laws of motion or constraints will in general produce changes in the schedules that describe the choices they make as a function of the information that they possess until very recently received dynamic econometric practice ignored this principle the practice of dynamic econometrics should be changed so that it is consistent with the principle that people s rules of choice are influenced by their constraints this is a substantial undertaking and involves major adjustments in the ways that we formulate estimate and simulate econometric models

household electricity demand revisited respond to price changes this paper develops a model for evaluating the effects of alternative tariff designs on electricity use the model concurrently addresses several interrelated difficulties posed by nonlinear pricing heterogeneity in consumer price sensitivity and consumption aggregation over appliances and time we estimate the model using extensive data for a representative sample of 1300 california households the results imply a strikingly skewed distribution of household electricity price elasticities in the population with a small fraction of households accounting for most aggregate demand response we then estimate the aggregate and distributional consequences of recent tariff structure changes recent efforts to restructure electricity markets have renewed interest in electricity demand and pricing this interest reflects a broad desire to improve the efficiency of electricity markets and policy makers concerns over the impact of price changes on consumers how new pricing mechanisms would affect households consumption and expenditures is a matter of considerable uncertainty however this uncertainty has provoked controversy and debate in the regulatory policy arena hampering market reforms using econometric methods to assess the effects of electricity price changes presents several challenges these include the nonlinear structure of tariff schedules aggregation of metered consumption behaviour over time and appliances and the interdependence of energy use with longer term household decisions over appliance ownership and dwelling characteristics the first two issues introduce complex simultaneity problems between marginal prices and consumption the third issue imposes high data requirements information on household specific appliance holdings and residence features and creates heterogeneity in consumption responses related to the characteristics of these durable goods when the researcher s objective is to develop a model for simulating the effects of prospective tariff changes ignoring these issues will provide an incomplete assessment of demand responses and potentially misleading predictions of a new tariff s consumption and revenue consequences in this paper we estimate a model of household electricity demand that can be used

estimating electricity demand the cost of linearising the budget constraint this paper derives elasticity estimates for the electricity demand of a cross section of residential customers in medellin colombia where prices follow a rising block scheme it contrasts methods following jerry hausman 1979 1985 with those based on harvey rosen 1976 to resolve the difference between the results produced by the two methods it uses a generalized selectivity bias corrections method due to frank vella 1990 copyright 1992 by mit press

job creation by company size class the magnitude concentration and persistence of job gains and losses in canada the statistical observation that small firms have created the majority of new jobs during the 1980s has had a tremendous influence on public policy governments have looked to the small firm sector for employment growth and have promoted policies to augment this expansion however recent research in the u s suggests that net job creation in the manufacturing small firm sector may have been overestimated relative to that in large firms

how good are small firms are predicting employment this paper utilises some data from an interview survey of very small firms in the north of england to examine the relationship between actual and forecast employment in small firms over a twelve month period the paper first provides some summary statistics on actual and forecast employment for the survey firms over the reference period it then looks at how successful the firms are in their short term forecasts and finds that there is systematic over estimation the causes of the systematic forecast error are investigated it is suggested tentatively that the firms may in some way be incorrectly interpreting the information embodied in their own employment figures when making their forecasts the paper concludes with a brief review of the results and possible policy implications avenues for future work are also proposed

why do big firms pay higher wages evidence from an international database abstract bigger firms pay higher wages this note reports tests of the hypothesis that this big firm premium bfp occurs because workers in big firms are more skilled we use the international adult literacy survey which gives richer skill measures than those typically available in labor market surveys to measure the bfp in nine countries with and without controls for worker skill the results show that the bfp is not as universal as is often suggested but in countries where it exists controlling for skills does little to reduce the size of the bfp

infrastructure quality and the subsidy trap abstract electricity and water are often subsidized in developing countries to increase their affordability for low income households ideally such subsidies would create sufficient demand in poor neighborhoods to encourage private investment in their infrastructure instead many regions receiving large subsidies have precarious distribution networks supplying users who never pay using a structural model of household electricity demand in colombia i predict the change in consumption and profits from upgrading low quality electricity connections i show that the existing subsidies which provide greater transfers to areas with unreliable supply deter investment to modernize infrastructure finally i analyze alternative programs with stronger investment incentives jel h23 h54 l94 l98 o12 o13

learning in expectation formation with applications to cattle and beef exports the paper briefly considers problems associated with rational expectations and formulates a more general model which allows for situations where economic agents do not immediately arrive at a fully rational solution it incorporates a learning mechanism whereby agents can provisionally adopt hypothetically derived expectations as a basis for comparison with the actual outturns utilizing the resultant past expectational errors as indicators of the likelihood of prospective future outcomes agents make explicit allowance a rational solution thus in situations where complete information is not freely available rationality would be approximated over time by means of a dynamic learning process which is founded on a firm empirical approach this essential empiricism requires that the problem be examined on the basis of direct observation of applied situations therefore the method is implemented and analysed with reference to irish foreign trade in fat cattle carcase and processed beef simultaneous equati

import demand with rational expectations estimates for bauxite cocoa coffee and petroleum abstrac t we offer a method for establishing the distributed lag structure in import demand models a priori we consider a firm which imports raw materials in a world of uncertainty traditional considerations of adjustment and inventory holding costs lead to a forward looking import decision rule linear rational expectations modelling allows us to transform the forward looking rule into a finite distributed lag specification while the resulting model is similar in form to earlier empirical models it is not subject to the lucas critique the model is fitted to u s data over the period 1954 1980

assessing empirical approaches for analyzing taxes and labor supply recent surveys on the labor supply responses of men document a divergence in the estimates of substitution and income effects obtained using various estimation approaches generally studies accounting for nonlinear tax schedules in a static setting via a piecewise linear approach produce estimates that typically imply higher substitution and lower income responses than are suggested by empirical work applying other approaches this paper demonstrates that maximum likelihood estimation of a consumer choice problem with nonlinear budget sets implicitly relies on the satisfaction of inequality constraints that translate into behaviorally meaningful restrictions these constraints arise not as a consequence of economic theory but instead as a requirement to create a properly defined statistical model in the analysis of piecewise linear budget sets the implicit constraints required by maximum likelihood in estimation amount to imposition of slutsky conditions at all wage income combinations associated with kink points in the analysis of differentiable budget sets the tacit constraints invoked by maximum likelihood also involve inequality restrictions on slutsky terms the empirical work presented in this study supports the contention that these implicit constraints play a major role in explaining the discrepancies in estimates found in the literature on men s labor supply

expectations and arms races recent empirical studies of arms races have produced two puzzling results first for several important arms races particularly the u s ussr case there appears to be no interaction arms acquisition appears to be driven only by internal factors second in several cases nations appear to be responding to the current military expenditures of their opponent this statistical result presents interpretation problems since nations do not know the current defense expenditure of their opponent at the time that they make their own military expenditure decision a number of interpretations for these results have been provided they include inappropriate model specification inappropriate operationalization of military threat and error ridden military expenditure data nevertheless the results persist and conflict with our more substantive and intuitive understanding of arms processes a process based upon expectations of current arms expenditures of the opponent is developed to deal with this puzzle in this paper several alternative expectation mechanisms are formulated and tested for a number of contemporary arms races

how to achieve full electrification lessons from latin america electricity coverage in latin america has increased substantially in recent decades rising from 50 of the population in 1970 to more than 95 in 2015 growth however slowed in the 1990s as many countries experienced difficulties in extending their networks further in particular to serve those living in isolated and rural areas in spite of this the process of electrification was not interrupted and at the beginning of the 2010s decade most countries in the region were able to provide access to electricity to almost all of their populations in this paper we examine the main strategies used in latin america to increase coverage and argue that only a combination of policy efforts has made it possible to achieve the current situation we also examine the remaining obstacles at policy and institutional levels to achieving full coverage

an intertemporal model of industrial exit a finite horizon model of industrial exit is developed after an initial lag most exits are by young firms the duration of the lag is positively related to sunk entry costs but not due to the fallacy of sunk costs the conception of entry differs from previous research as a result not all entrants are identical and firm size affects the rate of learning on average larger new firms last longer entrepreneurs in declining firms act more lazily as the firm declines a number of empirical observations about declining firms are organized by the model

pension coverage and retirement savings of young and prime aged workers in canada 1986 1997 in this paper we assemble data from several household surveys to document how pension coverage of young and prime aged workers has evolved in canada between the mid 1980s and the mid 1990s we show that between 1986 and 1997 pension coverage has fallen significantly for men has dropped slightly for young women and has increased for prime aged women the decline in union density and employment shifts towards low coverage industries explain most of the decline in pension coverage of men and young women in contrast most of the increase in coverage of prime aged women remains unexplained while pension coverage has fallen for men and young women their real average contributions to registered retirement savings plan rrsps have increased substantially as a result the sum of the amounts they contributed to registered pension plans rpps and rrsps has increased markedly jel classification j26 j32 couverture des regimes de rentes et epargnes pour la retraite des travailleurs jeunes et de ceux dans la force de l ge au canada 1986 1997 dans ce memoire les auteurs assemblent des donnees de plusieurs enquetes sur les menages pour documenter l evolution de la couverture des regimes de rentes des travailleurs jeunes et dans la force de l ge entre le milieu des annees 80 et le milieu des annees 90 on montre que cette couverture a chute de maniere significative pour les hommes a decline legerement pour les femmes et s est accrue pour les femmes dans la force de l ge la chute du taux de syndicalisation et les deplacements de l emploi vers des secteurs ou la couverture est plus faible expliquent le gros du declin de couverture pour les hommes et les jeunes femmes quant a l accroissement de la couverture pour les femmes dans la force de l ge il demeure inexplique alors que la couverture des deux premiers groupes a decline leurs contributions aux regimes enregistres d epargne retraite reer ont augmente substantiellement en consequence le total des sommes qu ils ont contribuees aux regimes de rentes enregistres et aux reer ont augmente de maniere importante

rational expectations in agricultural economics research and policy analysis despite recognition by agricultural economists that price expectations are important in agricultural decision making few changes in the way price expectations appear in economic models of agriculture have been made during the past two decades for example in the major proportion of existing supply response studies it has been assumed that price expectations are formed adaptively for an illustration of the extent that this assumption has been used see askari and cummings that is expected price is assumed to be a weighted average of past prices with the weights declining geometrically over time in other supply response studies it is assumed that a polynomial distributed lag on product prices provides an adequate representation of the system s dynamic structure see for example meilke zwart martin or fisher however as muth p 315 noted there is little evidence to suggest that the presumed relations bear a resemblance to the way the economy works although data on anticipations are collected in many ways only a few studies have tried to determine how individual decision makers actually form expectations heady and kaldor turnovsky and fisher and tanner katona in calling for more research of this kind also identifies some difficulties in studying the psychology of individuals learning processes until psychologists make more progress in this area economists who incorporate anticipations in their models will have to use another approach however there are few choices the popular adaptive expectations hypothesis is inadequate not because it implies that the forecast of a particular variable is a distributed lag of its own past values but because it implies that the distributed lag parameters are restricted in an ad hoc way in general assuming that price expectations are formed adaptively is ad hoc because the parameter restrictions in the distributed lag are not the result of an optimization process alternative formulations such as the assumption that expectations are naive or generated by some other simple autoregressive form are inadequate for similar reasons the rational expectations hypothesis

a discrete continuous choice approach to residential water demand under block rate pricing reply waldman is quite correct in noting that the microeconomic theory of block rate pricing in hewitt and hanemann hh 1995 is given for the general case of a k block rate structure whereas the econometric theory is largely confined to the case of exactly two blocks the extension in waldman to the more general case of k blocks is correct although the extension itself could be even more general if it addressed the nonnegativity of demand as is demonstrated below that no apparent attention was paid to the nonnegativity of demand in hh may be attributed to the fact that the need to do so was negated by a fortuitous assumption in the earlier work although that assumption that the errors are multiplicative and lognormally distributed was only maintained and not tested in hh i now estimate two models with the more common assumptions of linear demand and additive and normally distributed errors both with and without a modification for

the baby boom and baby bust what caused the baby boom and can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years the hypothesis is that a the secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children b the baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century this lowered the cost of having children a model is developed in an attempt to account quantitatively for both the baby boom and bust

water works the economic impact of water infrastructure abstract billions of hours are spent each year on water collection in developing countries this paper explores whether improvements in water technologies which decrease household distance to drinking water source and the time intensity of home production enable changes in household time allocation and thereby productivity gains in kyrgyzstan adults reallocate time to leisure and labor on the household farm average yearly household cereals production increased significantly results imply a rate of return to labor equaling 0 11 hour approximately half the hourly farm wage absent evidence of improved adult health results suggest that productivity gains were realized primarily through increased farm labor

staying in business abstract the paper analyses factors which help a small entrepreneurial firm to stay in business the time scale for the analysis is three years 1985 1988 the main issue that the paper is concerned with is the role of market and financial variables primary source data are used an estimated probit model indicates that for this sample product range and gearing are the key maket and financial variables respectively the greater the product range and the lower the gearing ceteris paribus the better the chances of staying in business

the digital provide information technology market performance and welfare in the south indian fisheries sector when information is limited or costly agents are unable to engage in optimal arbitrage excess price dispersion across markets can arise and goods may not be allocated efficiently in this setting information technologies may improve market performance and increase welfare between 1997 and 2001 mobile phone service was introduced throughout kerala a state in india with a large fishing industry using microlevel survey data we show that the adoption of mobile phones by fishermen and wholesalers was associated with a dramatic reduction in price dispersion the complete elimination of waste and near perfect adherence to the law of one price both consumer and producer welfare increased

domestic political conflict and basic needs outcomes an empirical assessment this study undertakes an empirical investigation of the near universal assumption that domestic political conflict is invariably harmful to the societies in which it occurs in particular we examine the implications of domestic conflict for the provision of basic human needs once the known effects of aggregate national wealth are removed using a variation of the panel regression model we regress an index of basic needs satisfaction on measures of domestic conflict scope and intensity along with suitable controls for a sample of 85 contemporary nations the findings indicate that the intensity measure is associated with long term improvements in basic needs while the scope of conflict carries a negative impact for basic needs outcomes

political parties world demand and unemployment domestic and international sources of economic activity this article replicates and extends earlier work on the politics of macroeconomic policy by considering political effects on unemployment in 14 western industrial nations between 1960 and 1983 changes of party control of government display broadly the expected effects namely that unemployment falls under left wing governments and rises under right wing governments however the principal conclusions of this article are that partisan effects on unemployment in open economies that is economies heavily dependent on trade with other countries can only be satisfactorily estimated relative to the constraint imposed by the level of world economic activity and that in addition to politicians strategic incentives political institutions and economic regime constraints also determine whether partisan effects on unemployment will be sustained transitory or absent with respect to the latter on the whole no effects are found where no such effects were promised by the new government before taking office where one party or dominant partner coalitions form the effect on unemployment is transitory whereas where broad coalitions form it is sustained or absent finally ceteris paribus any partisan effects are more likely where governments secure parliamentary majorities

urban growth and transportation we estimate the effects of interstate highways on the growth of u s cities between 1983 and 2003 we find that a 10 increase in a city s initial stock of highways causes about a 1 5 increase in its employment over this 20 year period to estimate a structural model of urban growth and transportation we rely on an instrumental variables estimation that uses a 1947 plan of the interstate highway system an 1898 map of railroads and maps of the early explorations of the u s as instruments for 1983 highways we investigate the role of interstate highways in the growth of u s cities our investigation is in three parts in the first we develop a simple structural model describing the joint evolution of highways and employment in cities in the second we develop an instrumental variables strategy that allows us to identify key parameters of our structural model we are also able to provide out of sample evidence for the validity of our estimates and for the central assumptions of our model in the third we use our estimates to assess counterfactual transportation policies we find that a 10 increase in a city s stock of interstate highways causes about a 1 5 increase in its employment over 20 years and that an additional kilometre of highway allocated to a city at random is associated with a larger increase in employment or population than is a road assigned to a city by the prevailing political process our results also suggest that too many new highways were built between 1983 and 2003 these findings are important for three reasons first transportation generally and infrastruc ture in particular are large segments of the economy the median u s household devotes about 18 of its income to road transportation while all levels of government together spend another 200 billion dollars annually overall the value of capital stock associated with road transporta tion in the u s tops 5 trillion dollars united states bureau of transportation statistics 2007 2010 given the magnitude of transportation expenditures it is important that the impact of these expenditures on economic growth be carefully evaluated and not assessed on the basis of the claims of advocacy groups our analysis provides a basis for assessing whether these resources are well allocated our results also provide useful guidance to policy makers charged with planning cities since changes in a city s transportation infrastructure cause changes to the city s employment new transportation infrastructure causes complementary changes in the demand for public utilities and schools our results provide a basis for estimating the magnitude of such changes finally this research is important to furthering our understanding of how cities operate and grow transportation costs are among the most fundamental quantities in theoretical models

pay as you go prepaid metering and electricity expenditures in south africa abstract high rates of customer default on utility bills present a barrier to the expansion of electricity access in the developing world pre paid electricity metering offers a technological solut

property rights and water access evidence from land titling in rural peru summary insecure land tenure and property rights are an impediment to infrastructure access and services for households in many developing countries this paper explores whether alleviating this impediment through a land titling program in rural peru is associated with improvements in household water sources as well as sanitation and electricity services the economics literature on the links between property rights and investment decisions has amassed yet due to the necessity of water for life the high fixed costs associated with water infrastructure construction and the positive externalities that can result from water provision it is not obvious how water services might respond to land tenure improvements utilizing the phased in program timing in a quasi experimental design we exploit the differences in implementation timing across space in conjunction with the differences in program impact across households that held property titles prior to the project and those that did not results from this modified difference in differences method indicate that land titling is associated with small in magnitude but statistically significant increases in water access larger gains in sanitation and electricity services are found we investigate the channels through which this improved access occurs and find evidence of investments in all three services via either government or water utilities we find evidence of individual household investment only in the case of sanitation taken together these results indicate that land titles are important but not sufficient to increase access to water and other services

employer size wage effects evidence from matched employer employee survey data in the uk this paper employs a random sample of matched employer employee data from the uk to test seven possible explanations for the positive relationship between employer size and pay individual wage equations show a large employer size wage premium we then control for a range of establishment level variables based on seven hypotheses typically advanced to explain this premium each establishment level factor reduces the wage premium but a sizeable premium nonetheless remains in adjudicating on these hypotheses we find a strong association between the internal labour market and the employer size wage premium this finding supports the theory that the employer size wage effect may be due to the higher costs of turnover or monitoring in larger firms however we find contrasting effects for public versus private sector establishments

spring cleaning rural water impacts valuation and property rights institutions the brief summarizes the spring cleaning rural water impacts valuation and property rights institutions the first two rounds of spring protection occurred in january april 2005 and august november 2005 the author measure health impacts of spring protection an investment that improves source water quality the author also estimate households valuation of spring protection and simulate the welfare impacts of alternatives to the current system of common property rights in water which limits incentives for private investment spring infrastructure investments reduce fecal contamination by 66 percent but household water quality improves less due to recontamination child diarrhea falls by one quarter travel cost based revealed preference estimates of households valuations are much smaller than both stated preference valuations and health planners valuations and are consistent with models in which the demand for health is highly income elastic the author estimate that private property norms would generate little additional investment while imposing large static costs due to above marginal cost pricing private property will function better at higher income levels or underwater scarcity and alternative institutions could yield pareto improvements

vector rational error correction abstract systems of forward looking linear decision rules can be formulated as vector rational error correction models the closed form solution of the restricted error corrections is derived and a full information estimator is suggested the error correction format indicates that the assumptions of convex adjustment costs and rational expectations impose different types of a priori restrictions on the dynamic structure of the error corrections an empirical model of the producer decision rule for capital investment illustrates that the data rejects dynamic restrictions imposed by a standard model of adjustment costs but supports a more general description of convex frictions

human capital and information this paper examines the issue of the establishment size wage effect it analyzes a cross section for the year 1979 with information on 607 individuals and the 60 private sector establishments where they work it discusses four theories of the establishment size wage effect and uses empirical proxies to test them it shows that when a dummy variable on computer access in the establishment is introduced as a regressor the establishment size variable is an insignificant regressor this result and other evidence supports the contention that the establishment size coefficient captures the effect of unobserved human capital accumulation

granger causality and the time series analysis of political relationships political scientists have employed causal modeling techniques for quite some time in most cases however they have relied on methods of a static cross sectional variety time series methods have been disseminated and applied but these have not been expressly causal the problem of assessing the causal character or direction of political relationships over time has not been addressed granger 1969 has suggested a notion of causality that is applicable in longitudinal analysis the study and application of granger s idea of causation now is widespread in economics and business this discussion evaluates the usefulness of applying granger causality in the study of political relationships granger s definition of causality is introduced several popular procedures for assessing granger causality are reviewed and certain problems surrounding interpretation of those empirical tests are elucidated the virtues and pitfalls of granger causal analysis then are illustrated in an analysis of an important topic in international political economy and also in a reanalysis of a recent granger causal investigation of arms races

local governance and the quality of local infrastructure evidence from village road projects in rural china abstract research has shown that allowing local communities to elect their own leaders increases local infrastructure investment however much less is known about the effects of local governance reform on the quality of local infrastructure this paper examines the effects of governance reform implemented in rural chinese villages on the quality of village road projects we conduct surveys in 101 rural villages and collect data related to the implementation of the reform over the last two decades we also measure the quality of over 550 village road projects completed in these villages using fixed effects and instrumental variable estimation methods we find that the implementation of village governance reform increases the quality of village road projects we also find evidence supporting the following effect mechanisms 1 village leaders become younger and more educated 2 high quality road projects increase incumbent leaders re election chances and 3 village residents participate more actively in the management and monitoring of village road projects

the allocative cost of price ceilings in the u s residential market for natural gas a direct consequence of restricting the price of a good for which secondary markets do not exist is that in the presence of excess demand the good will not be allocated to the buyers who value it the most we demonstrate the empirical importance of this allocative cost for the u s residential market for natural gas which was subject to price ceilings during 1954 89 using a household level discrete continuous model of natural gas demand we estimate that the allocative cost in this market averaged 3 6 billion annually nearly tripling previous estimates of the net welfare loss to u s consumers

complex actions and simple outcomes how new entrepreneurs stay in business in this paper the entrepreneur within the new small firm is regarded as taking complex rather than simple actions which determine whether he or she will remain in business thus instead of simply choosing output as in the standard analysis of the competitive firm the entrepreneur may take actions which involve choices about markets finance organisation innovation and much else besides to explore this approach very detailed information on actions within small firms is required it is shown how this was obtained by a fieldwork study of new business starts using data from this fieldwork a rich statistical picture was created of actions within the new small firm in turn this permitted econometric analysis of actions that help a new small firm to stay in business over a three year period this indicates that the crucial actions which enable a small firm to stay in business are the rapid repayment of debt and the willingness to sacrifice short run profit for growth there is also evidence that staying in business is fostered by tight control of the wage bill especially by substituting other labour inputs for full time employees

the techno bureaucratic elite and the entrepreneurial state in dependent industrialization a common characteristic of dependent industrializing countries is a substantial direct entrepreneurial role for the state one explanation for this is that in dependent industrializing countries the system of allocation and production has been captured by a key group the techno bureaucratic elite the argument is that this elite lends its political support to the state in return for the state substituting as entrepreneur in the industrialization process in this article we analyze the theoretical implications of this explanation of the entrepreneurial state a formal model is constructed of the relationship between state entrepreneurship material consequences for the techno bureaucratic elite and important domestic and international constraints we then use deductive methods to analyze the logic of state entrepreneurship among other things we show how cyclical fluctuations in the global economy are reflected in constantly changing levels of state entrepreneurship and we investigate the consequences of alternative kinds of dependency syndromes for histories of entrepreneurial substitution and for streams of benefits to the techno bureaucratic elite it is demonstrated that there is an inverse relationship between the tendencies to reach stable levels of state entrepreneurship and the long term potential for economic growth

the econometrics of piecewise linear budget constraints a survey and exposition of the maximum likelihood method in this article maximum likelihood techniques for estimating consumer demand functions when budget constraints are piecewise linear are exposited and surveyed consumer demand functions are formally derived under such constraints and it is shown that the functions are themselves nonlinear as a result the econometric problems in estimating such functions are exposited and the importance of the stochastic specification is stressed in particular the specification of both unobserved heterogeneity of preferences and measurement error econometric issues in estimation and testing are discussed and the results of the studies that have been conducted to date are surveyed

the conquest of south american inflation we infer determinants of latin american hyperinflations and stabilizations by using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate a hidden markov model that assigns roles both to fundamentals in the form of government deficits that are financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals levels and conditional volatilities of monetized deficits drove most hyperinflations and stabilizations with a notable exception in peru where a cosmetic reform of the type emphasized by marcet and nicolini occurred

the institutional dynamics of policy administration bureaucratic influence over securities regulation theory a dynamic systems model of administrative politics that 1 relaxes restrictive causal assumptions among the president congress and an administrative agency 2 emphasizes aggregate institutional behavior and 3 analyzes both anticipated and unanticipated policy behavior is set forth as a more general means to investigate agency political relationships hypotheses the main set of hypotheses focus on the aggregate institutional relationships among the president congress and administrative agency these four possible hypotheses include bureaucratic influence bureaucratic autonomy mutual influence and political influence the purpose here is to assess the relative merits of competing explanations for bureaucratic behavior securities regulation is a perfect area of inquiry to investigate these competing perspectives since the findings of existing research on this topic are disparate methods vector autoregressive time series statistical methods are used to empirically test the dynamic systems model of administrative politics by examining three empirical models of sec enforcement behavior in relation to presidential and congressional budgetary preference signals for the 1949 92 annual period results the sec sends potent signals of their own via their changes in regulatory outputs that will affect the budgetary preferences of its political principles however the sec s administrative outputs are shown to be somewhat less sensitive to political budgetary preference signals than what one would expect presidential and congressional budgetary preference signals with respect to the sec are interdependent to a sizeable extent thus raising doubts about the separate independent effect democratic institutions have over the bureaucracy the implications of this study suggest that conventional theories of agency political relations serve as an oversimplified way to study administrative behavior future research on this topic

a selectivity model of employer size wage differentials this article investigates wage differentials for employees of different size firms utilizing an econometric methodology that allows the size of employer to be treated as endogenous in the context of discrete ordered employer size data as a result we are able to estimate i employer size wage gaps which are corrected for selectivity bias and ii the magnitude and direction of the selection bias decompositions of the resulting wage differentials are computed with comparisons of the conditional on sorting across employer size and unconditional wage gaps

a dynamic nash game model of oil market disruptions and strategic stockpiling in this paper we present and analyze a nash dynamic game model for investigating public and private sector oil inventory policies in unstable world oil markets conceptual results about the model include simple verifiable conditions for uniqueness and stability of solutions along with characterizations of optimal policies we also present results and discuss computational issues that arise in determining subgame perfect infinite horizon equilibria using a steady state policy iteration approach

rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods abstract this paper formulates and estimates a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment of labor the view that the primary role of inventories of finished goods is to act as a buffer stock in the face of fluctuating demand is examined both the model and estimation results indicate that this is the case because of differences in the costs involved for firms in changing their inventory stocks and labor force in addition to providing some new evidence on the behavior of inventories of finished goods and employment the paper illustrates a technology for maximum likelihood estimation of structural parameters under the hypothesis of rational expectations

change and stability in superpower rivalry we investigate the dynamics of superpower rivalry participants in policy debates within each state use information about expected future threats and economic costs to influence other policy actors and this process of sophisticated reaction links the security policies of these two states into a single rivalry system analysis of vector autoregression models of u s and soviet military expenditures and diplomatic hostility and u s gross national product supports the hypothesis that these policies approximate the behavior of unitary rational states capable of forming rational expectations of each other s future behavior the dynamic response of this system to a wide range of exogenous shocks or innovations reveals the underlying stability of this rivalry system the military expenditures of both states exhibit a cyclical response to innovations with a shorter u s cycle this lack of synchronization creates several problems for analysis and for policy change

peasants or bankers the american electorate and the u s economy t he usual model of electoral reaction to economic conditions assumes the retrospective economic voter who bases expectations solely on recent economic performance or personal economic experience voter as peasant a second model assumes a sophisticated economic voter who incorporates new information about the future into personal economic expectations voter as banker using the components both retrospective and prospective of the index of consumer sentiment ics as intervening variables between economic conditions and approval we find that the prospective component fully accounts for the presidential approval time series with aggregate consumer expectations about long term business conditions in the approval equation neither the usual economic indicators not the other ics components matter moreover short term changes in consumer expectations respond more to current forecasts than to the current economy the qualitative result is a rational expectations outcome the electorate anticipates the economic future and rewards or punishes the president for economic events before they happen economics moves political behavior with hard times administrations lose support with good times they gain it we know this to be true but when we ask how by what processes the political translation of economic experience occurs the an

canadian jobs and firm size do smaller firms pay less even after controlling for observable workers characteristics and for occupation and industry specific effects a substantial wage differential remains between large and small firms what underlies the remaining wage differential is unclear direct evidence on pension plan coverage and on lay off rates by firm size is inconsistent with the bad working conditions hypothesis the union avoidance hypothesis does not seem to explain an important portion o f the wage differential as suggested by efficiency wage models part of the remaining wage differential may be due to firms heterogeneity similarly perhaps large firms pay higher wages simply partly beca use they employ workers with more unobserved abilities because differen t explanations of the wage differential may lead to different policy implications determining the source of the wage firm size effect is an important question for future research

work contracts and earnings inequality the case of chile great social inequality has been one of the worrisome features of economic development in latin america this study focuses on chile one of latin america s fastest growing economies with one of the highest levels of income inequality during the 1990s using micro level data from the 1994 and 2000 encuestas de caracterizacion socio economica this article examines the role of work contracts in explaining male and female earnings and earnings inequality among wage and salary workers over the second half of the 1990s the analysis distinguishes between wage and salary work without a work contract referred to as informal work and wage and salary work with a work contract within the latter group the study further differentiates by the type of work contract held such as permanent and a variety of contingent work contracts the findings reveal that the majority of employees in informal and contingent wage and salary work arrangements earned significantly less than their permanent counterparts additiona

the political manipulation of macroeconomic policy conventional wisdom and some research indicate that macroeconomic policies follow cycles corresponding to political as well as economic forces using vector autoregression analysis i test three models of monetary policy determination for the united states 1953 1984 the electoral cycle model that reelection motivations on the part of presidents create a policy cycle the party differences model that policy changes reflect revolving presidential party administrations and the referendum model that changes in presidential approval create in effect a continuing referendum allowing presidents to monitor their success and change macroeconomic policies when necessary analysis shows that monetary policies as measured by the monetary base and short term interest rates respond to the election cycle and presidential approval although the effect on macroeconomic outcomes is ambiguous party differences are found in real income but are not very significant in other variables

choice among wage hours packages an empirical investigation of male labor supply this article specifies and estimates an empirical model of male labor supply based on an implicit market model of wage hours determination we discuss how moving from a standard labor supply model to an implicit market model affects model specification and choice of estimation technique we find that average hourly earnings are not independent of hours worked and that ols estimates of the wage hours relationship are biased we also show that a labor supply model that assumes wages to be independent of hours worked produces a positively biased estimate of the effect of the wage on labor supply

water demand under alternative price structures we estimate the price elasticity of water demand with household level data structurally modeling the piecewise linear budget constraints imposed by increasing block pricing we develop a mathematical expression for the unconditional price elasticity of demand under increasing block prices and compare conditional and unconditional elasticities analytically and empirically we test the hypothesis that price elasticity may depend on price structure beyond technical differences in elasticity concepts due to the possibility of endogenous utility price structure choice observed differences in elasticity across price structures may be due either to a behavioral response to price structure or to underlying heterogeneity among water utility service areas

the ineffectiveness of effective tax rates on business investment a critique of feldstein s fisher schultz lecture abstract in his fisher schultz lecture martin feldstein 1982 examined the effects of non neutral tax rules on business investment by estimating three econometric models and he concluded that the rising rate of inflation has because of the structure of existing u s tax rules substantially discouraged investment in the past 15 years in a detailed examination of feldstein s effective tax rate model and a less extensive review of his other formulations neoclassical and return over cost we advance a number of important and independent criticisms and find that these three models fail to support feldstein s conclusion that taxes have exerted a significantly depressing effect on net investment during the recent inflation episode

stratification and public utility services in colombia subsidies to households or distortion of housing prices domiciliary public utility services in colombia have a cross subsidy system which charges subsidized rates to the households who live in houses located in strata associated to low wealth levels and taxed rates to the better off we assesses the hypothesis that the flow of subsidies that potentially come from a particular house are discounted by housing market agents so that most of them are transferred to the prices of the houses that generate the subsidies by estimating a hedonic prices model applying a regression discontinuity approach we find that the increment in house value estimated because of subsidies is similar in magnitude to the present value of the flow of subsidies likely effects are found on the rent amount we conclude that subsidies to the poor population through public spending in domiciliary public utility services in colombia is being achieved if anything in a very limited way most of the financial effort on this subject ends up distorting housing relative prices according to socioeconomic strata with an annual cost of up to 0 7 of gdp in supposed gross subsidies to domiciliary public utility services

new firm growth and bank financing this paper examines the extent to which lucas ideas on human capital and jovanovic theorising on learning can provide further insights into the development of small firms it focuses exclusively upon newly established independent firms our evidence from two surveys is that bank lending to new firms is unrelated to many of the personal characteristics of founders which have been argued by other researchers to relate to small firm performance instead lending appears to be more related to whether or not the founder can or chooses to use personal savings and the legal status of the business

tariffs and trade fluctuations does protectionism matter as much as we think despite the widespread assumption that tariffs reduce trade volume in the short term it is conceivable that long term expansion and contractions in trade actually drive tariff levels a granger causality analysis performed on british u s french german japanese and a systematic aggregate data on gdp tariff levels encompassing the 1854 1990 period finds mixed support for both the short and long term interpretations in general the antecedence of trade on protectionism predominates over the antecedence of protectionism on trade one implication is that the long term context should not be ignored in analyzing short term dynamics

u s soviet chinese relations routine reciprocity or rational expectations international relations theorists disagree about whether great power behaviors reflect bureaucratic routine or reciprocity recently some have suggested that these behaviors result from great powers rational expectations rather than from simple routine or reciprocity the debate is flawed in several respects the quasi experimental studies of great power behavior suffer from specification and measurement errors furthermore most studies of great power behavior focus exclusively on the superpowers without adequately appreciating china s role in world politics we present an improved analysis that recognizes the potential effects of chinese behavior and ameliorates the methodological flaws in existing work the results indicate that the behaviors of the united states the soviet union and china are a relatively stable mix of bureaucratic routine and reciprocity the results also indicate complex asymmetrical connections among u s soviet u s chinese and soviet chinese relations consistent with the notion of a strategic triangle

the effects of rural electrification on employment new evidence from south africa this paper estimates the impact of electrification on employment growth by analyzing south africa s mass roll out of electricity to rural households using several new data sources and two different identification strategies an instrumental variables strategy and a fixed effects approach i find that electrification significantly raises female employment within five years this new infrastructure appears to increase hours of work for men and women while reducing female wages and increasing male earnings several pieces of evidence suggest that household electrification raises employment by releasing women from home production and enabling microenterprises migration behavior may also be affected jel h54 l94

econometric policy evaluation note for successive values of the endogenous variables y with the x treated as deterministic forcing variables here 0 is a parameter vector and the et are random shocks lucas correctly observed that such a formulation is inconsistent with a view of agents as optimizers except in special cases in which the future is irrelevant to present decisions it makes no sense to think of agents as optimizing if they know that their budget constraints are liable to shift arbitrarily i e in a way which is not characterized probabilistically as government policy changes lucas was led to augment the foregoing equation by adding to the system a government policy function

social capital and the dynamics of trust in government it is well understood that trust in government responds to the performance of the president congress and the economy despite improved government performance however trust has never returned to the levels witnessed in the 1950s and 1960s social capital may be the force that has kept trust low if so we need to assess the relative contributions of both government performance and social capital at the macro level using macrolevel data the analysis here is designed to capture the variation over time in both social capital and government performance and let them compete to explain the macro variation in trust the empirical results demonstrate that both government performance and social capital matter but that social capital appears to be the force which accounts for the decline in trust over the last 40 years

mature micro firms and their experience of funding shortages funding shortages are analysed in the context of a simple neoclassical model of the micro firm that uses financial capital for its operations it predicts that a response to funding shortages is to substitute part time workers for full time workers under the assumption that the latter are the more financial capital intensive employees the experience of funding gaps in finance capital by long lived micro firms is investigated using data which were obtained by telephone interviews the micro firms examined had an average size of six full time and two part time workers and an average age of fifteen years using probit estimators of the probability of experiencing funding shortages it is found that a strong and significant negative association exists between the number of part time workers and the probability of experiencing funding shortages refuting the simple neoclassical hypothesis and suggesting an alternative hypothesis emphasising the flexibility advantages of part time embloyees in averting funding shortages a ten per cent increase in part time employees is shown to reduce the probability of experiencing funding shortages by two and a half per cent a regional effect was also discovered and bivariate probits gave results which were consistent with univariate probits

longitudinal analyses of the effects of trade unions but union members are different from nonmembers in unobserved ways biasing your estimates y ou should make a selectivity bias correction simultaneously determine union status and economic outcomes develop an unobservables model use longitudinal data archetypical comment on virtually any study of the economic effects of umomsm or suitably modified on any other empirical subject

student work placements in small firms do they pay off or shift tastes we present a model of training investments and employment outcomes in this model training may enhance trainees tastes for particular types of career taste shift and or shift their wage offer distributions pay off an empirical analysis is conducted with a unique data set of uk graduates these data contain information on students career tastes before small firm placements as well as their employment outcomes after graduation analysis of these data indicates that the placements provide a pay off among highly employable graduates who face certain disadvantages in the labour market conversely individuals who expressed a taste for small firm careers before placements are more likely to take up small firm employment after placements suggesting these individuals experience enhanced opportunities for their preferred career however individuals with pre placement large firm preferences have no greater likelihood of entering small firms employment after placements indicating there is no fundamental effect on career tastes

should workers care about firm size the authors analyze how firms of different sizes reward measured skills and unmeasured ability the empirical methodology based on nonlinear instrumental variable estimation permits direct estimation of the returns to unmeasured ability by firm size an analysis of panel data from the canadian survey of labour and income dynamics for two periods 1993 1998 and 1996 2001 reveals statistically significant differences between firms of different sizes in particular returns to unmeasured ability are higher in medium sized firms than in either small firms or large firms the authors find that the firm size wage gap and the differential in returns to unmeasured ability between small and medium sized firms is mainly explained by ability sorting the fact that larger firms reward ability less than medium sized firms is consistent with an explanation based on monitoring costs when firms become too large monitoring costs may prevent them from rewarding ability directly through wages

the value of free water analyzing south africa s free basic water policy this paper analyzes south africa s free basic water policy under which households receive a free water allowance equal to the world health organization s recommended minimum of 6 kiloliters per month i structurally estimate residential water demand evaluate the welfare eects of free water and provide optimal price schedules derived from a social planner s problem i use a unique dataset of monthly metered billing data for 60 000 households for 2002 2008 from a particularly disadvantaged suburb of pretoria the dataset contains rich price variation across 18 dierent nonlinear tarischedules and includes a policy experiment which removed the free allowance i nd that without government subsidy the mean monthly consumption would decrease from 12 6 to 5 6 kiloliters which is below the clean water consumption recommended by the who however it is possible to reallocate the current subsidy to form an optimal tari without a free allowance which would increase welfare while leaving the water provider s revenue unchanged this optimal tariwould also reduce the number of households consuming below the who recommended level

u s defense spending and the soviet estimate there is a glaring and potentially important discontinuity surrounding discussions of u s defense expenditure policy making on the one hand a growing body of empirically based research questions whether the u s reacts in any significant fashion to the military expenditures of the soviet union on the other hand defense policy makers routinely justify defense increases as a response to similar increases by the soviet union the discontinuity is resolved in the context of a multistep model of the defense expenditure policy making process that incorporates a new estimate of soviet defense spending and mass public opinion once formulated the model provides answers to the following two questions 1 does the u s insofar as defense spending is concerned react to the military expenditures of the soviet union 2 if so what is the magnitude of the reaction the answers indicate that not only does the u s react to estimated soviet defense spending but that the reaction is directly responsible for a very substantial portion of the post 1978 increases in u s military expenditures

household responses to increased water rates during the california drought this paper explores the use of fixed effects and maximum likelihood techniques to es timate household responses to water price in creases during the california drought estimates are based on bimonthly meter readings from 599 single family households in the alameda county water district over the period 1982 1992 before and after the introduction of a steeply increasing block rate price structure i find that household and monthly fixed effects models are not success ful in modeling water demand with these data however maximum likelihood models that ex plicitly consider the household s response to the rate structure result in plausible estimates of wa ter demand jel q25

efficiency wage models of unemployment keynesian economists hold it to be self evident that business cycles are characterized by involuntary unemployment but construction of a model of the cycle with involuntary unemployment faces the obvious difficulty of explaining why the labor market does not clear involuntarily unemployed people by definition want to work at less than the going wage rate why don t firms cut wages thereby increasing profits

the trade off between supervision and wages evidence of efficiency wages from the nlsy standard efficiency wage models suggest that workers employed in places with lower probabilities of identifying shirking will earn more as will workers who have better alternative opportunities this paper provides new empirical evidence in support of efficiency wage theory using the national longitudinal surveys of youth data the empirical results support the prediction of the model that workers employed in larger work groups are paid more a finding consistent with a supervision wage trade off additional evidence supports the prediction that workers with better alternative opportunities earn more the classical competitive theories of wage determination predict that workers will be paid the value of their marginal product these theories suggest that after accounting for differences in working conditions there should be no variation in wages among homogeneous workers recent findings that industry affiliation and firm size affect wages suggest that part of the explanation of wage structure is missing these results call into question the view that industry wage differentials can plausibly be rationalized with textbook competitive models krueger and summers 1988 p 280 this paper follows the efficiency wage literature by assuming that one important determinant of wage differences is variation in employers ability to monitor workers efforts 2 this paper provides new empirical evidence in support of efficiency wage theory using data from the national longitudinal surveys of youth nlsy a data set that is noticeably absent from the efficiency wage literature efficiency wage models attempt to complete the explanation of wage structure by focusing

sophisticated reaction in the u s soviet arms race evidence of rational expectations because of the pervasive security rivalry between the united states and the soviet union information about the expected future behavior of the rival state proves useful to domestic political actors competing to influence budgetary allocations this article examines the hypothesis that in the aggregate this process of sophisticated reaction approximates the behavior of two unitary rational actors capable of forming rational expectations of each other s behavior this rational expectations arms race model implies that the military expenditure series of arms racers should be independent in the granger causal sense but that their residuals should be correlated contemporaneously the latter prediction is inconsistent with bureaucratic process models or alternative expectational formulations and empirical analysis of u s and soviet yearly military expenditures is provided that supports the predictions of the rear model finally some implications of this intimate linkage between the domestic policy processes of these two rival superpowers are briefly discussed

exclusionary policies in urban development under servicing migrant households in brazilian cities localities in developed countries often enact regulations to deter low income households from moving in in developing countries such restrictions lead to the emergence of informal housing sectors to deter low income migrants localities in developing countries withhold public services to the informal housing sector using a large sample of brazilian localities we examine migration and exclusion focusing on the public provision of water to small houses where low income migrants are likely to live withholding water connections reduces the locality growth rate particularly of low education households in terms of service provision during dictatorship in brazil we find evidence of strategic exclusion where localities appear to withhold services to deter in migration we also find evidence of strategic interactions among localities within metro areas in their setting of service levels if one locality provides more services to migrant households other localities respond by withholding service

who influences u s foreign policy research in international relations has identified a variety of actors who appear to influence u s foreign policy including experts and epistemic communities organized interests especially business and labor and ordinary citizens or public opinion this research however has often focused on a single factor at a time rather than systematically testing the relative importance of alternative possible influences using extensive survey data gathered over three decades we conduct a comparative test attempting to account for the expressed foreign policy preferences of policy makers by means of the preferences of the general public and those of several distinct sets of elites the results of cross sectional and time lagged analyses suggest that u s foreign policy is most heavily and consistently influenced by internationally oriented business leaders followed by experts who however may themselves be influenced by business labor appears to have significant but smaller impacts the general public seems to have considerably less effect except under particular conditions these results generally hold over several different analytical models including two observation time series and different clusters of issues economic military and diplomatic with some variations across different institutional settings the u s house senate and executive branch

a model of the natural rate of unemployment since the publication of edmund phelps volume the new macroeconomics has treated the labor market as a dynamic process of rational search by unemployed workers for available vacancies wages are viewed as at least potentially flexible though free contracting between workers and firms may lead to fixed wages in the short run imperfect information is a crucial element of the theory for it implies both a need for contracting and a need for rational search rather than simple market clearing in each period a positive rate of frictional unemployment may exist in equilibrium denoted as the natural rate this unemployment is due to the frictions in the search process and imperfections in information rather than to any deficiency in aggregate demand milton friedman defined the natural rate as the level that would be ground out by the walrasian system of general equilibrium equations provided there is embedded in them the actual structural characteristics of the labor and commodity markets including market imperfections stochastic variability in demands and supplies the cost of gathering information about job vacancies and labor availabilities the costs of mobility and so on p 8 this paper reexamines the micro foundations of the natural rate in a model of labor market equilibrium in which turnover flows and imperfect information are explicitly considered workers may quit their current jobs to enter the unemployment pool in order to search among available vacancies for a more preferred position firms economize on turnover by an appropriate wage policy

responsiveness to energy price changes when salience is high residential natural gas demand in ukraine abstract despite its importance for policy purposes evidence about the price elasticity of natural gas demand in the residential sector is very limited and based on inference from situations with modest variation in prices we focus on a locale and time when price changes were extreme and salient to consumers namely ukraine between 2013 and 2017 we exploit the tariff reforms and detailed micro level household consumption records to assess whether consumers adjust their consumption in response to the rate changes and estimate the price elasticity of the demand for natural gas to isolate behavior attention is restricted to those households that made no structural energy efficiency upgrades to their homes thus keeping the stock of gas using capital fixed we find that households are capable of reducing consumption even without installing insulation or making any other structural modifications to their homes the price elasticity is about 0 16 wealthier households people living in multifamily buildings and heavy users have more inelastic demands households reduced consumption even when they received government assistance this and the fact the demand is inelastic especially for wealthier households bode well for tariffs or energy tax schemes where wealthier households subsidize the consumption of the poorer ones

the power of tv cable television and women s status in india cable and satellite television have grown rapidly throughout the developing world the availability of cable and satellite television exposes viewers to new information about the outside world which may affect individual attitudes and behaviors this paper explores the effect of the introduction of cable television on gender attitudes in rural india using a three year individual level panel dataset we find that the introduction of cable television is associated with improvements in womens status we find significant increases in reported autonomy decreases in the reported acceptability of beating and decreases in reported son preference we also find increases in female school enrollment and decreases in fertility primarily via increased birth spacing the effects are large equivalent in some cases to about five years of education in the cross section and move gender attitudes of individuals in rural areas much closer to those in urban areas we argue that the results are not driven by pre existing differential trends these results have important policy implications as india and other countries attempt to decrease bias against women authors

heterogeneous firms and the organization of production firms in the same industry exhibit systematic differences in the organization of production and the structure of employment entrepreneurial ability is the specific scarce input that limits the size of a firm this input must be allocated to two activities coordinating production and monitoring workers able entrepreneurs can convert calendar time into larger supplies of coordinating effort that enable them to assemble large firms greater ability implies a higher shadow price of time which increases the implicit costs of monitoring a dispersion of entrepreneurial abilities generates an equilibrium size distribution of firms differences in monitoring costs affect the choice of worker productivities the design of products and the organization of production the monitoring cost hypothesis advanced in this paper goes a long way in explaining the equilibrium of an industry containing heterogeneous firms that differ in size and behavior

towards an interdisciplinary theory of entrepreneurship entrepreneurship is one of the least understood topics in economics the rising significance of small companies and especially of start ups for the creation of new jobs has been an intensively discussed subject for nearly one decade but there is still no theory of entrepreneurship

working hours and hedonic wages in the market equilibrium in the conventional model of labor supply working hours are implicitly assumed to be divisible goods which is an obviously unrealistic assumption the purpose of this paper is to analyze working hours as indivisible goods when working hours are indivisible labors are differentiated in the market by their length and wages will be a function of working hours the main conclusions are that 1 in the market equilibrium the elasticity of the hedo nic wage curve with respect to hourly wage rates must be positive or less than a1 and 2 generally data will reveal neither demand nor su pply structures copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

dynamic firm behavior and regional deadweight losses from a u s oil import fee this paper analyzes the national and regional efficiency aspects of a 5 per barrel fee on crude oil imported into the united states the emphasis of the paper is twofold firstly a dynamic model of firm behavior capturing explicitly both expectations formation and resource nonrenewability is used to assess the impact of the fee on domestic firm behavior and secondly the regional breakdown of the producer and consumer surplus changes tariff revenues and deadweight losses or gains is performed by taking explicit account of stock ownership in oil producing and oilconsuming corporations and consumption by end use sector the import fee is a politically contentious issue but one that refuses to go away in political circles the perceived benefits of the fee are usually seen as increased energy security and aid to a beleaguered domestic oil and gas industry perceived drawbacks are usually inflation and regional inequities the last point is the political downfall of the tariff producing states are seen to gain from the higher prices brought on by the tariff and consuming states are seen to lose representatives from states with little or no production and this of course covers most states are hard pressed to sell the idea to constituents this paper thus deals with two of the most important questions from a policy perspective the regional incidence of the tariff and its impact on domestic output in a related paper 20 i discuss the economic rationales for an oil import fee i find that any optimal tariff arguments based on u s monopsony power in the world oil market are not valid in today s market estimates show an import supply curve of approximately infinite elasticity and thus an optimal tariff near zero i dispense with the energy security rationale for a tariff as well arguing that any risk of a disruption of imports in the future and that risk may be small in today s market is best handled with other policy tools such as government owned or subsidized stockpiles these conclusions imply that a tariff would impose deadweight losses on the u s economy by encouraging overproduction of domestic petroleum resources and underconsumption of petroleum imports how much overproduction results from the tariff is the focus of section ii below a