stock price reactions as surrogates for the net cash flow effects of corporate policy decisions abstract this paper adopts a rational market structure to examine the link between the cash flow effects of management policy decisions and the resulting stock price reactions the focus is on testing cross sectional associations between cash flow effects and the underlying characteristics of affected firms we find that it is not possible to infer the sign of association between the stock price reaction and any characteristics of the firm that are observable before management announces its decision our methodological suggestions involve exploiting either a priori assumptions or sample information about the probability distribution of unobservable decision variables underlying the management decision process

on the possibility of efficient private provision of public goods through government subsidies abstract this paper investigates the possibility of implementing an efficient provision of a public good through distortionary tax subsidy policies in a simple one shot game of voluntary contributions within the class of all linear tax subsidy policies two cases are distinguished the first is where individual taxes only depend on the sum of all other individuals contributions although such policies may increase total supply of the public good it is shown that the implementation of an efficient amount is not possible unless the government has complete information about individual characteristics in the second case where taxes depend on the distribution of contributions the equilibrium supply of the public good is no longer unique for any efficient interior solution there might also exist inefficient boundary solutions moreover unlike the boundary solutions the efficient interior solution is in general not stable

the strategic advantage of being less skilled abstract ability need not pay if public goods are financed by voluntary contributions this result first shown for exogenously given income is reinforced if income is endogenously generated in equilibrium welfare of complete free riders is ranked according to their wage rate whereas for contributors a higher productivity is disadvantageous furthermore it can be shown that the set of contributors consists of the skilled agents and only the less productive will act as complete free riders this results in a strong incentive for being less skilled

tax authority to the european parliament in this paper we analyze whether countries of the ec community should plead for a decentralized system to finance the european funds rather than using a uniform tax imposed by the european parliament the analysis is within a multistage game theoretic framework in which the implication of the financing system of a confederation on the investment behavior in the respective states is considered the paper is in the tradition of the literature which claims that from a view of global efficiency property rights structures inducing ex post efficient allocations may be worse than a system leading to an ex post inefficient allocation for this specific economic issue we elucidate the tradeoff between incentive effect and distributional policy especially we demonstrate that rather homogeneous countries benefit by installing a central tax institution if the countries are rather heterogeneous the countries may have opposing interests with respect to the answer of the question which is presented in the title it is possible that the high developed country prefers to install a central tax authority while the low developed country does not however in general the reverse ordering which is more in line with our intuition results

income redistribution in a common labor market when households are mobile among jurisdictions income redistribution by individual jurisdictions creates fiscal externalities a model of interjurisdictional migration is used to study the nature of this redistributive externality analysis of optimal redistribution and optimal corrective subsidies from higher level governments shows that benefit levels for the recipients of income transfers and tax rates on mobile taxpayers should be equalized across jurisdictions a system of jurisdictions with a common labor market can achieve welfare improvements through coordination of domestic redistributive policy or through the intervention of a higher level government copyright 1991 by american economic association

government preferences and public forest harvesting a second best approach around the world governments own forest capital stocks and can harvest them for revenue or provide public goods from preserving them this article examines how government preferences for revenue generation and public goods provision affect policy choices many instances are found where governments might exploit public forests at the expense of public goods this is most likely when budget pressures are severe or when the government prefers revenue generation to nontimber benefits provision in particular budget constrained governments are more likely to exploit public harvests to raise revenues and subsidize the forest sector especially when revenues are increasing in public harvesting public harvesting should also influence tax choice the results shed light on current forest policy debates and can be used to predict behavior of developed and developing country governments facing external pressures

stock price reactions to lifo adoptions the association between excess returns and lifo tax savings although long a topic of accounting research little is known about the motives for or effects of voluntary changes in accounting techniques among the motives which have been suggested are attempts by managers to smooth reported earnings gordon 1964 copeland 1968 cushing 1969 white 1972 and ronen and sadan 1981 to influence man agement compensation to reduce regulatory or political costs watts and zimmerman 1978 and to avoid bond covenant restrictions holthausen 1981 while some of these motives may be consistent with a market value rule they often fail to provide unambiguous accounting change predictions e g which accounting changes result in lower regulatory costs moreover empirical verification has been constrained by the unobservability of the variables to which the managers allegedly respond the stock price reaction which should be expected for a given account ing change depends not only on its implications for the valuation of securities but also on the extent to which the implications are already known or anticipated by investors 3 ultimately our ability to detect these stock price effects if any depends on the power of our tests previous studies of the effects of accounting changes have generally not found significant stock price reactions archibald 1972 ball 1972 kaplan and roll 1972 harrison 1977 and holthausen 1981 4 for the most part these studies dealt with accounting changes which had no direct cash flow effects in contrast changes in inventory costing methods especially those involving the last in first out lifo cost flow assumption can generate potentially large changes in a firm s cash flows due to their impact on taxable earnings these cash flow effects provide not only a motive for lifo changes5 which is consistent with the market value rule but also implications for associated stock price effects if investors react to lifo s cash flow implications rather than to its effects on reported earnings then positive stock price adjustments should be associated with lifo adjustments however the evidence from previous studies of stock price reactions to lifo adoptions is inconclusive ball 1972 sunder 1973 1975 abdel khalik and mckeown 1978 brown 1980 and ricks 1982 while several factors may account for these results see section 2 it can be noted that the previous studies have considered only a dichotomous variable whether or not a firm has adopted lifo yet because the cash flow consequences of a lifo adoption decision depend on a number of firm specific factors this approach ignores potentially large differences among firms in the economic consequences of lifo adoptions most firms switching to lifo now reveal in their financial statement disclosures the tax savings which have been realized this study uses these disclosures to examine the association between unsystematic re turns and the magnitudes of first year lifo tax savings for all nyse firms which adopted or extended their use of lifo during the period 1972 80 subject to data availability 6 the research design employs within group comparisons based on cumulative monthly unsystematic excess returns with appropriate controls for unexpected earnings per formance 7 this design avoids several methodological weaknesses inherent in the previous studies and allows more definitive tests of hypotheses relating investor reactions to the income and cash flow effects of lifo adoptions as reported more fully below results based on lifo adoptions made in 1974 are consistent with a positive association between cumulative excess stock returns and the magnitudes of lifo tax savings 8 the results also provide evidence that changes in systematic risk may accompany lifo adoptions however contrary to previous studies most of the sample firms exhibit downward rather than upward changes in systematic risk section 2 reviews the previous studies of stock price reactions to lifo adoptions and suggests explanations for their results section 3 discusses the alternative approach employed in this study while section 4 describes the test methodologies employed the data and data selection procedures are described in section 5 the results and a discussion are presented in section 6 section 7 offers some conclusions

matching grants and ricardian equivalence this paper investigates the effectiveness of matching grants to correct for interjurisdictional spillovers in the light of bernheim general neutrality result indeed this result suggests that the usual argument that matching grants are needed to internalize the externality arising from the existence of interjuridictional spillovers is an artifact of the assumption that jurisdictions neglect the impact that their decisions have on the federal budget relaxing this assumption and using a classical model where the arbitrage resulting from labor mobility implies that redistribution has the properties of a public good we find that matching grants are relevant although somewhat less ective we also find that optimal matching rates are independent of the number of jurisdictions and their strategic variables contrarily to the case where jurisdictions ignore the impact of their decisions on the federal budget

volunteer work and club size nash equilibrium and optimality the non cooperative provision of public goods is analyzed in the context of a two stage game in which club size is determined endogenously equilibrium club size and voluntary labour supply are shown to be inefficient the impact of optimally chosen fiscal policies using simple instruments is studied when agents do not derive non pecuniary benefits from volunteer work lump sum grants can be used to implement the first best equal treatment allocation but private provision is fully crowded out otherwise it is found that simple fiscal instruments cannot implement the first best equal treatment allocation unless club size is directly regulated

consistent estimation of cross sectional models in event studies event studies often include cross sectional regressions of announcement effects on exogenous variables if the event is voluntary and investors are rational then standard ols and gls estimators are inconsistent consistent ml estimators are constructed for a cross sectional model of horizontal mergers relating announcement effects to exgeneous characteristics of firms and industries the ols and ml estimates differ dramatically for bidders but not for targets the evidence suggests that managers of bidders but not targets have valuable private information about the potential synergies from proposed mergers article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

ex post redistribution in a federation implications for corrective policy abstract this paper analyzes whether changes in the timing of equalizing transfers to state governments necessitate an adjustment in federal corrective policy according to the existing literature assuming an ex ante choice of transfers the corrective grant is equal to the marginal damage benefit inflicted by externality generation when the federal government accommodates state finances ex post the grant differs in formula from existing prescription allocative federal policy corrects state policy incentives twofold it entails a correction for the distortion in the marginal benefit of state spending as in earlier literature and for the distortion in the marginal cost of public funds induced by the ex post provision of transfers the required grant rule is generically disproportionate to the equilibrium externality even with lump sum taxation furthermore the ex post provision of transfers is critical for the nature of the equilibrium inefficiency equalizing transfers at least partly internalize consumption spill overs but simultaneously establishes a new source of inefficiency as a final result the existing prescription for allocative federal policy continues to apply if the public good is pure

the economic consequences of extending the use of fair value accounting in regulatory capital calculations we investigate the economic consequences of the basel iii requirement to include unrealized fair value gains and losses on available for sale afs securities in regulatory capital using data for u s banks we find negative market reactions around news indicating an increased likelihood of this regulatory change being implemented consistent with increased regulatory costs we also find that banks affected by this regulation reduce their investment in risky afs securities relative to unaffected banks this result suggests that extending the use of fair values for regulatory purposes reduces ex ante risk taking

is everything neutral in his well known analysis of the national debt robert barro introduced the notion of a dynastic family this notion has since become a standard research tool particularly in the areas of public finance and macroeconomics in this paper we critique the assumptions on which the dynastic model is predicated and argue that this framework is not a suitable abstraction in contexts in which the objective is to analyze the effects of public policies we reach this conclusion by formally considering a world in which each generation consists of a large number of distinct individuals as opposed to one representative individual we point out that family linkages form complex networks in which each individual may belong to many dynastic groupings the resulting proliferation of linkages between families gives rise to a host of neutrality results including the irrelevance of all public redistributions distortionary taxes and prices since these results are not at all descriptive of the real world we conclude

public goods provision redistributive taxation and wealth accumulation this paper presents an extension of a static model of public goods provision with redistributional taxation as described by uler journal of public economics 93 3 4 pp 440 453 as a dynamic model of wealth accumulation intertemporal consumption and saving behavior strongly affect the relation between redistributive taxation and charitable contribution indeed the analyses presented herein reveal that more patience i e higher saving engenders a lower redistributional tax rate however the optimal redistributive tax rate is not zero because redistributive taxation improves the efficiency of providing public goods that are not improved by balanced growth this paper fills the gap separating static analysis and dynamic analysis and generalizes the results presented by static analysis

the impact of replacement cost disclosure on security prices new evidence abstract a number of studies have tested for information content in the asr 190 disclosure by comparing the conditional and unconditional distribution of abnormal security returns around the time of disclosure since no differences were observed it was concluded that asr 190 had no information content the study reported below performs a similar test by estimating the regression function of the conditional distribution of abnormal returns this test procedure controls for the information content in contemporaneous historical cost disclosure and uses a conditioning variable not considered in earlier tests it finds statistically significant stock price effects however because most of the effects appear to precede the official announcement date by several months it is unclear whether stock prices were responding to the leakage of the information content of asr 190 prior to disclosure to private production of information contained in asr 190 or to a variable omitted from the study which happens to be correlated with replacement costs

budgetary pressures in the eec a fiscal federalism perspective as is widely known the eec has gone through some troubling budgetary difficulties in recent years disputes have revolved around the growth of agricultural subsidies and about the contributions to be made to the eec by various member countries in particular the u k these problems have been brought under control for the short run however the implementation of the single european act could be greatly complicated and might falter if policymakers again became intensely involved in acrimonious budgetary disputes maintaining budgetary control for the next several years and for that matter in the longer term as well is thus a matter of considerable tactical importance within the context of the overall progress of european economic affairs in view of the fact that the threat of acute budgetary crisis has receded somewhat and in view of the prospect of a significant step forward toward more complete economic integration associated with the 1992 initiative it seems appropriate to give some thought to the budgetary problems that the eec is likely to confront in the medium term at a time of enormous political change in eastern europe it is exceptionally hazardous to attempt projections about economic affairs in the eec it is easy to visualize scenarios in which significant amounts of resources whether from the eec itself or from individual member states are directed toward promoting economic and other reform in the east forcing new choices with respect to the commitment of resources by member countries to the eec however to limit the scope of this paper attention is restricted to developments within the eec itself the major trends in the eec budget are easily delineated since only a few main initiatives account for the bulk of eec expenditures first agricultural subsidies through the european agricultural guidance and guarantee fund eaggf have entailed large expenditures through the 1980s these outlays accounted for about two thirds of eec expenditures another major category of eec expenditures are for the so called structural funds in particular the european regional development fund erdf and the european social fund esf the erdf funds economic development projects in specially targeted low income regions the esf funds programs that promote the training and employment of workers especially youth and long term unemployed persons these and related expenditures have accounted for about 10 15 percent of expenditures during the 1980s altogether then agricultural and structural expenditures account for about 85 percent of the total budget the u k has repeatedly protested against what it regards as excessive contributions to the eec relative to the return that it gets in the form of structural fund outlays and it has garnered a partial rebate of its contributions to the eec equal to two thirds of the difference between the u k vat contribution and eec expenditures allocable to the u k these rebates account for roughly 5 percent of the eec budget as a result of decisions taken in 1988 the outline of the eec budget for the next sevtdiscussants paul courant university of michigan rudolph penner the urban institute john yinger syracuse university

strategic transfers and private provision of public goods abstract this paper considers strategic monetary transfers between two agents when these contribute to a mutual public good if the agents differ in their contribution productivity then the less productive agent has an incentive to make large unconditional transfers to the more productive agent although agents move simultaneously in each stage of the game the less productive agent becomes a stackelberg leader furthermore the generic subgame perfect equilibrium is characterized by full specialization

conditioning the return generating process on firm specific events a discussion of event study methods empirical investigations into the codetermination of security prices and eco nomic events are called event studies there are several ways of estimating the codetermination of interest since fama fisher jensen and roll 8 it has been general practice to first translate variables into rates of return then net out gen eral market movements and finally examine the relationship between residual returns and events the methodology in all of its variants fails under the rubric of 4 residual analysis empirical methods used in residual analysis deviate from the structure and terminology generally found in classical econometrics while this is not a criticism of residual analysis it results in a communication problem that is more than simply pedantic in nature a broad body of econometric literature dealing with parameter estimation statistical inference and hypothesis testing often goes untapped by empiricists in finance who within internally consistent sets of as sumptions have created a separate body of statistical methods in this paper a union of the two disciplines is advocated to provide a forum for comparing and contrasting alternative empirical methods the event study problem is broken down into three phases the parameterization of informa tion arrival applicable to the problem an examination ofthe relationship between parameters in the information arrival process and the estimates resulting from alternative estimation methods and aggregation across firms experiencing simi

market expectations of the effects of the tax reform act of 1986 on banking organizations abstract this study investigates market expectations regarding the effect of the tax reform act of 1986 on the banking industry the evidence shows that overall the tax reform did not adversely affect the stocks of banking institutions the findings suggest that overall banking organizations were expected to largely mitigate any negative effects of the tax reform on their cash flow by rebalancing and or repricing their portfolios of assets and liabilities the most significant provision of the new act was the limitation on foreign tax credits interestingly the markets did not expect any adverse valuation effects from the recapture of loan loss reserves or the elimination of the interest deductibility for carrying tax exempt securities

evidence on the effect of bond covenants and management compensation contracts on the choice of accounting techniques the case of the depreciation switch back abstract provisions of bond indenture agreements and management compensation contracts are examined to derive testable implications concerning management s incentives to choose among alternative accounting techniques the hypotheses are subjected to empirical examination by investigating the voluntary change from accelerated to straight line depreciation for financial reporting purposes only the methodology utilized incorporates an expectations model of accounting earnings in an attempt to separate out of the effects of earnings announcements from accounting change announcements which are often concurrent the evidence from both price and non price data is not consistent with the general hypothesis that bond covenants and management compensation contracts are important determinants of the decision to change depreciation techniques five potential explanations for the results are offered

investment in local public services nash equilibrium and social optimum within a two community setting we study the optimal provision of a local public good which is indivisible and generates interjurisdictional spillovers each community has to decide whether or not to invest in this public good the resulting nash equilibrium is compared with an optimal solution based on a benthamian welfare function we then analyze to what extent conditional grants are able to restore optimality when needed c 1997 elsevier science s a

pareto optimal redistribution and private charity abstract when private charity exists and is motivated by utility interdependence a non pareto optimal outcome the free rider problem typically arises nevertheless incremental fiscal redistribution cannot achieve a paretian welfare improvement so long as private charity continues at positive levels donors respond to incremental fiscal redistribution by reducing their voluntary contributions by exactly a dollar for every dollar transferred in this way no net transfer is achieved unless incremental fiscal redistribution is pursued to the point where private contributions have been driven to zero alternatively a net transfer may be achieved by fiscal measures which affect donors marginal incentives to donate

voluntary contributions and local public goods in a federation abstract this paper considers nonneutral effects of government spending in a federation of multiple jurisdictions both government spending and private donations finance local public goods redistributive programs that provide transfers for the poor in the standard model government spending has no effect on the public goods as donors reduce their donations one for one in response to an increase in government spending in a federation donors of a jurisdiction donate through federal charities to help the poor in the jurisdiction and the poor in other jurisdictions as well jurisdictions are thus linked through donations such linkage influences donors behavior beyond the traditional crowding out effect as a result government spending has nonneutral effects on the level of public goods

pareto improvement through unilateral matching of public good contributions the role of commitment when providing public goods through voluntary contributions a donor may introduce unilateral matching in order to reduce underprovision of the public good and thus inefficiency by itself however matching benefits the donor but harms the recipient we apply cornes and hartley s aggregative game approach to provide a novel graphical explanation of this transfer paradox and also show how it may be avoided by introducing a commitment device

more powerful portfolio approaches to regressing abnormal returns on firm specific variables for cross sectional studies ols regression ignores both heteroscedasticity and cross correlations of abnormal returns therefore tests of regression coefficients are weak and biased a portfolio ols pols regression accounts for correlations and ensures unbiasedness of tests but does not improve their power we propose portfolio weighted least squares pwls and portfolio constant correlation model pccm regressions to improve the power both utilize the heteroscedasticity of abnormal returns in estimating the coefficients pwls ignores the correlations while pccm uses intra and inter industry correlations simulation results show that both lead to more powerful tests of regression coefficients than pols cross sectional studies that attempt to explain event period abnormal returns on firms securities by economic and or firm specific variables generally use cross sectional ordinary least squares ols regression abnormal returns of different securities are heteroscedastic of unequal variances and contemporaneous abnormal returns may be cross correlated ols ignores both heteroscedasticity and correlations therefore it leads to inefficient and biased tests of significance of regression coefficients for these reasons sefcik and thompson 1986 suggested using generalized least squares gls regression when sufficient data are available to obtain a reliable estimate of the covariance matrix of abnormal returns and portfolio time series ols pols regression should be used when that matrix cannot be estimated reliably in pols regression a cross sectional ols is used to estimate the regression coefficients and a time series of portfolio of estimation period unsystematic returns to estimate the standard errors of those estimates the resulting coefficients estimates are unbiased and their standard errors account for correlations among abnormal returns thus unbiasedness of tests is insured however concern for the power of tests lingers on because cross sectional

too big or too small a synthetic view of the commitment problem of interregional transfers abstract there is a growing body of literature on the commitment problem of interregional transfers the problem occurs because of an ex post bailout by a central government leading to ex ante adverse incentive consequences for a local government however different models have yielded different economic consequences the local government may be too large overspending and or overborrowing or it may be too small raising less of its own revenue in the presence of interregional spillovers the equilibrium may yield a pareto efficient outcome the present paper aims to synthesize these models developing a simple decentralized leadership model a critical question concerns what decision is made ex ante by the local government namely public expenditure or tax collection with the remaining policy instrument being residual adjusted by ex post transfers we discuss how different scenarios affect the equilibrium outcome

capital markets assessment of the economic impact of the dodd frank act on systemically important financial firms abstract we examine stock and bond market reactions to the key events leading to the passage of the dodd frank act to assess the markets expectations about the effectiveness of the act on systemically important financial firms using small medium sized domestic financial institutions as a control group we find that large financial institutions overall had negative abnormal stock returns and positive abnormal bond returns suggesting that the markets expect the act to be effective in reducing these banks risk taking we further investigate the market reactions for 1 larger and more interconnected financial institutions and 2 the big 6 banks to evaluate the markets assessment about the effectiveness of the act in ending the too big to fail policy we document that larger and more interconnected financial institutions experienced more negative abnormal stock returns and more positive abnormal bond returns as compared to other banks in our sample but these relations are not present during the final phase of the passage likewise we find that both shareholders and bondholders of the big 6 banks initially experienced significant negative returns followed by insignificant returns during the final phase of the passage these results appear to suggest the markets are doubtful about the effectiveness of the final version of the bill to end the too big to fail status in particular for the big 6 banks

tax transfer policies and the voluntary provision of public goods abstract the purpose of this paper is twofold first it extends previous models of non cooperative private funding of pure public goods by allowing both for distortionary taxation of private goods and for subsidies based on contributions to the public goods second it clarifies the type of behavioral and informational assumptions which are needed to insure neutrality of both lump sum and distortionary policies the analysis is developed in the context of fiscal federalism

pure public goods and income redistribution in a federation with decentralized leadership and imperfect labor mobility abstract we examine the non cooperative provision of a pure public good by regional governments in a federation similar to the european union where regional governments are stackelberg leaders and the central government is a stackelberg follower a federation with decentralized leadership the center makes interregional income transfers after it observes the contributions to the pure public good imperfectly mobile workers react to regional and central governments policies by establishing residence in their most preferred region despite the degree of labor mobility we show that the pure public good and interregional transfers are generally allocated efficiently in a federation with decentralized leadership

the public and private provision of pure public goods and the distortionary effects of income taxation a political economy approach a pure public good is provided by the government and the voluntary contri butions of two types of households the government finances its contribution by means of income taxation the latter has distortionary effects a third type of household never makes contributions we analyse the effects of changes in the income tax rate on a the pro vision of the public good b the private contributions of the households and c changes in the distribution of income and welfare between contributing and non contributing households we derive a simple and testable condition under which the lowering of the income tax entails a pareto improvement jel classification h23 h24 h41 la fourniture privie et publique de biens publics purs et les effets de distorsion de l imp6t sur les revenus une approche en terme d conomie politique un bien public pur est fourni par le gouvernement et par des contributions volontaires de deux types de m6nages le gouvernement finance sa contribution par un imp6t sur le revenu qui a des effets de distorsion un troisi6me type de menages ne contribue d aucune maniere on examine les effets de changements dans le taux d imposition du revenu sur a la fourniture du bien public b les contributions privees des menages c les changements dans la distribution du revenu et du bien etre entre les menages qui contribuent et ceux qui ne contribuent pas on derive une condition simple et verifiable qui assure qu une reduction d imp6t sur le revenu va engendrer une amelioration au sens de pareto

cross sectional association between abnormal returns and firm specific variables abstract abnormal returns market model prediction errors are the subject of many event studies in accounting and finance literature conditional on the event of interest researchers have recently used cross sectional regressions to examine relations between abnormal returns and firm specific variables this paper demostrates that non constant variences and covariances in market model residuals across firms introduced bias in the estimated slope coefficients of the independent variables i e the expected signs of the estimated slope coefficients can be predicted a priori a method is develope to removed the bias in the estimated slope coefficiets and is found to be effective this method explicitly takes the dependence among abnormal returns across firms into account methods that assume abnormal returns across firms to be independent do not control for such bias

temporary layoff unemployment in austria empirical evidence from administrative data temporary layoffs rehires recalls have been widely recognized as an important feature of north america s labour markets for europe however several observers have suggested that tighter regulatory impediments to the recruitment and dismissal of employees are responsible for temporary layoff unemployment being virtually non existent against this background this paper uses administrative data to evaluate the quantitative importance of temporary separations among the unemployed in austria and to track its composition by industries the main finding of our empirical analysis is that about one third of all unemployment spells in austria in 1985 ended with the individual returning to the former employer since temporary layoff unemployment was found to be on average of shoter duration it comprised a somewhat lower fraction of total weeks of unemployment however temporary layoff unemployment thus accounts for the same proportion of unemployment in austria as in the us or canada

the timing of and incentives for annual earnings forecasts near interim earnings announcements abstract security analysts anticipate and respond to interim earnings announcements when they revise their annual earnings forecasts analysts avoid revising for two weeks before an interim announcement and more frequently revise immediately after an announcement as expected revision activity after an interim announcement is greater if absolute unexpected interim earnings are larger if there are more competing analysts and if unexpected interim earnings are negative unexpectedly analysts are reluctant to revise their forecasts early in the fiscal year these findings carry implications for research designs that use analyst forecasts

internet downturn finding valuation factors in spring 2000 abstract during spring 2000 the internet stock index declined 45 using a sample of internet firms this paper investigates whether this decline was associated with new disclosures such as earnings analyst forecast revisions and web traffic measures or to a reassessment by investors of pre existing information we find only modest evidence that the decline was associated with new disclosures however returns and post decline stock prices are significantly explained by 1999 annual report data when earnings are decomposed into gross profit and various expenses traditional financial information contributes significantly more in explaining the cross sectional returns and price levels than non financial information

evidence of the impact of mandatory changes in accounting principles on corporate loan agreements abstract the theory in this paper predicts that mandatory changes in accounting princples can affect the measurement rules defined in restrictive covenants in firms lending agreements consequently those mandatory changes can have an impact on the value of a firm s equity even if the changes appear to be merely cosmetic this contracting cost theory is tested by examining of both event related and cross sectional abnormal performance of the equity of a sample of firms when the accounting princples board changes accounting princples for business combinations the theory provides at best in incomplete explanation of the observed abnormal performance

interior matching equilibria in a public good economy an aggregative game approach abstract if the equilibrium generated by a matching mechanism is to be the desired pareto optimal outcome it is necessary for every player to be at an interior solution at that equilibrium using the aggregative game approach developed by cornes and hartley 2003 2007 this paper analyzes the conditions under which matching mechanisms in a public good economy lead to interior matching equilibria at which all agents make strictly positive flat contributions to the public good in particular we show that the distribution of income among the agents is crucial for both the existence of interior matching equilibria and warr neutrality in the case of matching

optimal tax treatment of private contributions for public goods with and without warm glow preferences abstract tax favored contributions for financing some public goods may be a useful part of optimal nonlinear income tax and expenditure policy there are two sides to the potential gain from subsidized donations first for a given level of public good provision higher private donations from high earners than low earners eases the incentive compatibility constraint for donors and so can raise social welfare this follows since considering a lower paid job includes a perception of a drop in public good provision second private donation reduces consumption easing the resource constraint this paper explores optimal policy using first a model with standard preferences and then a model with a warm glow of giving in addition to showing the conditions for the level of public goods the paper considers the pattern of optimal subsidization across earnings levels analysis of optimal taxation with warm glow preferences is sensitive to the choice of preferences that are relevant for a social welfare evaluation after considering optimal rules with formulations of social welfare which do and do not include warm glow utility the paper considers the choice of normative criterion like the earlier literature this paper assumes that organizing private donations is costless while tax collection has a deadweight burden since private charitable fundraising is very far from costless the paper is an exploration of economic mechanisms not a direct guide to policy

on the efficiency of least squares regression with security abnormal returns as the dependent variable monte carlo procedures are used to compare the finite sample performance of several estimators that may be used in cross sectional regressions with security abnormal returns as the dependent variable alternative models of event induced increases in stock return variance are examined for the event clustering scenario event clustering implies crosssectional correlation and heteroskedasticity in market model prediction errors violating one of the fundamental ordinary least squares ols assumptions i i d disturbances nonetheless provided that the conditions for asymptotic validity derived by greenwald 1983 are met the ols estimator is well specified in finite samples further for sufficiently large cross sections there is no advantage to several other more complex estimators

impure public goods and transfers in a three agent model abstract this paper extends previous models of non cooperative private funding of pure public goods by allowing for impure public goods the analysis is developed in the context of international public goods under certain conditions the consequences of transfers on utility are paradoxical if the preferences are divergent a country may gain by giving a transfer the receiver may lose and these two phenomena may appear at the same time

an approach to statistical inference in cross sectional models with security abnormal returns as dependent variable several recent event studies test hypotheses about the association between event related abnormal security returns and firm characteristics using a three step procedure first forecast model parameters are estimated usually parameters of a market model second prediction errors or residuals are computed over an event period third prediction errors are regressed cross sectionally on firm characteristics hypothesized to influence the impact of the event on share values results of these regressions are used to draw inferences about the relation between abnormal returns and firm characteristics researchers who employ three step procedures acknowledge that crosssectional ols regressions lead to valid inferences if the disturbances are iid normal in cross section see for example leftwich 1981 p 23 and lustgarten 1982 p 138 while sufficient assumptions to draw valid inferences from ols regressions are clear these assumptions are violated if there is cross correlation and cross sectional heteroscedasticity in the firm return processes from which the prediction errors are estimated assumptions about the processes generating these prediction

financing public goods public goods can be financed by direct taxation or a subsidy to private spending this paper examines the relative efficiency and distributional consequences of the two methods efficiency is shown to depend on the price elasticity of private spending and the trade off between public and private spending when this trade off is dollar for dollar however a subsidy is always more efficient than direct taxation the gains from a subsidy are larger for a mixed good than for a pure public good looking a t distributional effects the author shows when richer taxpayers may prefer a tax credit to deductibility even though they face lower prices with deductibility and also shows when richer taxpayers prefer direct taxation to either type of subsidy copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

does auditor reputation matter the case of kpmg germany and comroad ag we study the stock and audit market effects associated with a widely publicized accounting scandal involving a public company comroad ag and a large reputable audit firm kpmg in a country germany that has long provided auditors with substantial protection from shareholder legal liability we use this event to study whether an auditor s reputation helps to ensure audit quality a rationale for which recent literature and events provide scant support given the absence of a strong insurance rationale for audit quality germany permits a relatively clean test of whether auditor reputation matters we find that kpmg s clients sustain negative abnormal returns of 3 at events pertaining to comroad and that these returns are more negative for companies that are likely to have higher demands for audit quality we also find an increase in the number of clients that drop kpmg in the year of the comroad scandal mostly smaller recently public companies that are similar to comroad overall our results provide support for the reputation rationale for audit quality

an empirical analysis of the economic implications of fair value accounting for investment securities abstract this paper analyzes security returns of bank holding companies and insurance companies during periods surrounding the adoption of sfas 115 we find bank share prices were negatively affected by the examined events but find little share price reaction for insurance companies our evidence suggests banks were adversely affected by the standard because of problems with the standard s market value accounting approach cross sectional analysis of event period returns shows that banks that more frequently traded their investments with longer maturing investments and that are more fully hedged against interest rate changes were the most negatively impacted by the standard

the incremental information content of replacement cost earnings abstract the study explores the incremental explanatory power of replacement cost earnings variables derived from asr 190 data with respect to explaining cross sectional differences in security returns as such the study is a natural extension of previous research including analyses of the effect of security returns of asr 190 data at the time of disclosure investigations of cross sectional relationships between security returns and historical cost earnings and studies of multiple signals the basic finding is that pre holding gain net income provides no incremental explanatory powerm given knowledge of historical cost earnings however the converse does not hold taken together the findings are consistent with the contention that pre holding gain net income is a garbled version of historical cost earnings the basic finding is robust under several extensions of the initial research design the research design incorporates a two stage approach which permits a determination of the incremental explanatory power of collinear variables the findings are in contrast to those of a previous study by easman et al 1979 the nature of the difference in research design inducing the difference is identified potential reasons for the difference in findings are provided

the economic determinants of the market reaction to proposed mandatory accounting changes in the oil and gas industry a cross sectional analysis abstract this paper examines the economic reasons for the observed negative abnormal common stock performance of firms whose reported earnings and stockholders equity were negatively affected by the proposed elimination of full cost accounting in the oil and gas industry four explanations of the market effects of this mandatory accounting change are examined 1 naive investor theory 2 modified naive investor theory 3 contracting cost theory and 4 estimation risk theory these hypotheses are developed in detail and used to generate variables for a cross sectional model which explains observed return behavior the effect of the accounting change on total stockholder s equity the existence of financial contracts denominated in terms of accounting numbers and to a lesser extent firm size are shown to be important explanatory variables the importance of these variables is consistent with both the contracting cost and estimation risk theories

an empirical test of neutrality and the crowding out hypothesis this paper tests warr s neutrality hypothesis that the voluntary provision of a public good is independent of the distribution of income specifically i test the null hypothesis of neutrality against the alternative that total contributions to a public good will be larger the less equally income is distributed to test this hypothesis a new data set is constructed by merging data on total voluntary contributions to individual public radio stations with 1990 census data on the income distribution in each station s listening area i find that voluntary contributions increase as income inequality rises

altruism voluntary contributions and neutrality the case of environmental quality this paper develops an intertemporal model wherein production generates pollution which is viewed by consumers as a public bad there are two types of consumer those who are altruistic and leave bequests to their children and those who are pure life cyclers both types voluntarily contribute to the quality of environment through environmental groups it appears that if bequests by altruists and voluntary contributions by all are positive redistribution is neutral which does not mean that pollution abatement and capital accumulation are optimal to achieve optimality one needs a tax on inheritance and a differential subsidy on all consumer contributions

economic consequences of increasing the conformity in accounting for uncertain tax benefits abstract commentary during the development of fasb interpretation no 48 suggests the interpretation could be costly for firms because new disclosure requirements could be used by the irs to more effectively challenge uncertain tax positions stock returns around fin 48 pronouncements suggest investors were not concerned about an increase in tax costs and investors responded favorably to initial disclosures required under fin 48 however we document a significant negative market reaction to subsequent news of a senate inquiry into these disclosures consistent with investors revising their beliefs over the potential for additional tax costs

the strategic advantage of being poor private and public provision of public goods when people know that a public good is to be privately provided in the future economic behaviour may change in periods before the one with the private provision game individuals have a distortionary incentive to reduce their disposable income so as to shift the burden of provision to others the incentive is eliminated if the government provides a sufficient amount of the public good in a second best world private provision of public goods has been claimed to be a reasonably good alternative to public provision this claim needs to be reconsidered in the light of these results

international public goods and contribution productivity differentials abstract this paper investigates the impacts of productivity differentials in contributing to the public good on national welfare in the context of non cooperative voluntary provision of a pure public good a country with high productivity does not necessarily enjoy high welfare subsidizing the other country in a contribution game may lead to a strong paradoxical result while a lump sum transfer will lead to a weak paradoxical result we also explore the relationship between the price of the public good and the size of an open club in a multi club model

family policy with non cooperative families we consider a non cooperative model of a family s time allocation between market work and providing a home produced family public good such as child care or care for the elderly the model predicts underprovision of the public good because of crowding out this does not necessarily warrant public provision in contrast to other approaches in family economics we find that attempts to redistribute between spouses may alter the final distribution within the marriage and that such a policy may be pareto improving we also find that some degree of progressivity of the income tax can be welfare improving

potentially harmful international cooperation on global public good provision recent international climate negotiations suggest that complete agreements are unlikely to materialize instead partial cooperation between like minded countries appears a more likely outcome in this paper we analyze the effects of such partial cooperation between like minded countries in doing so we link the literature on partial cooperation with so called matching approaches matching schemes are regarded as providing a promising approach to overcome undersupply of public goods like climate protection the functioning of matching mechanisms in a setting with an incomplete agreement i e a contract where only a subset of the players participates has however not been investigated yet this paper fills this research gap by analyzing incomplete matching agreements in the context of international climate protection we analyse their effect on both welfare and the global climate protection level we show that matching coalitions may bring about a decline in global public good provision and a reduction in the welfare of outsiders

provision of a pure local public good in a spatial model with many jurisdictions abstract this paper examines the provision of a pure local public good in jurisdictions that are spaced evenly along an infinite line each jurisdiction either supplies the local public good or else its residents travel to another jurisdiction to consume the local public good the equilibrium spacing between jurisdictions which supply the local public good which can be uneven varying between a minimum spacing and a maximum spacing for given exogenous parameters can be greater than equal to or less than the socially optimal spacing

matching as a cure for underprovision of voluntary public good supply abstract matching mechanisms are widely regarded as providing a promising way to cure the public good underprovision problem but the pareto optimal interior matching equilibrium emerges only under very special conditions however we show that public good underprovision is normally avoided

international aspects of public infrastructure investment m odelling infrastructure as an international public good in a two country m odel of trade where each country s social planner behaves strategically we show that the equilibrium levels of infrastructure are sub optimal from a global perspective utilising an appropriate econom etric fram ework and data from 16 european countries over the period 1987 95 we find evidence that accords well with the m ain predictions of our theory thus we are able to offer a plausible theoretical explanation why public capital m ay be undersupplied as suggested by previous em pirical literature