petrol prices oil price rises and oil price falls some evidence for the uk since 1972 this paper examines the relationship between retail petrol prices excise duties and crude oil prices in the uk over the period 1973 1988 the existence of a stable relationship between the petrol price level of excise duty and spot oil price is confirmed through use of the cointegration approach although the speed of reaction of petrol prices to changes in the crude price depends on whether crude prices are rising or falling any asymmetry in the pricing response is virtually absent after an adjustment period of only four months

vacancies unemployment and the phillips curve abstract the canonical new keynesian phillips curve has become a standard component of models designed for monetary policy analysis however in the basic new keynesian model there is no unemployment all variation in labor input occurs along the intensive hours margin and the driving variable for inflation depends on workers marginal rates of substitution between leisure and consumption in this paper we incorporate a theory of unemployment into the new keynesian theory of inflation and empirically test its implications for inflation dynamics we show how a traditional phillips curve linking inflation and unemployment can be derived and how the elasticity of inflation with respect to unemployment depends on structural characteristics of the labor market such as the matching technology that pairs vacancies with unemployed workers we estimate on us data the phillips curve generated by the model while we can reject the baseline new keynesian phillips curve in favor of the search frictions specification we show it is still too stylized to fully describe the dynamics of firms marginal costs

disclosure strategies for pollution control disclosure strategies which involve public and or private attempts to increase the availability of information on pollution form the basis for what some have called the third wave in pollution control policy after legal regulation the first wave and market based instruments the second wave while these strategies have become common in natural resource settings forest certification and organic farming for example they are less familiar in a pollution control context yet the number of applications in that context is now growing in both oecd and developing countries this survey will review what we know and don t know about the use of disclosure strategies to control pollution and conclude with the author s sense of where further research would be particularly helpful

dynamic contracts with worker mobility via directed on the job search this article proposes a model with dynamic incentive contracts and on the job search in a frictional labor market the optimal long term contract exhibits an increasing wage tenure profile with increasing wages worker effort also increases with tenure these two features imply that the probabilities of both voluntary and involuntary job separation decrease with both job tenure and the duration of employment given these results workers experience differing labor market transitions between employment unemployment and across different employers and the equilibrium generates endogenous heterogeneity among ex ante homogeneous workers abstract from author

unemployment and productivity in the long run the role of macroeconomic volatility abstract this paper presents a new empirical regularity between the volatility of productivity growth and long run unemployment for a given level of long run productivity growth a theoretical framework based on asymmetric real wage rigidities is shown to have the potential to rationalize this finding the model tends to fit u s long run unemployment better than a specification based on long run productivity growth only especially during the great moderation and the great recession

a monetary business cycle model with unemployment abstract to reproduce key features of the post war u s data most monetary business cycle models must assume there are high price markups and that agents have high labour supply elasticities despite the existence of contradictory microeconomic evidence this paper eliminates the need for these assumptions by introducing imperfectly observed effort into a limited participation model the estimated model is better able to capture the sluggish price response to a monetary policy shock than the standard model and is consistent with evidence regarding the qualitative responses of the u s economy to technology shocks fiscal policy shocks and monetary policy shocks

an empirical model of labor supply in a life cycle setting this paper formulates and estimates a structural intertemporal model of labor supply using theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of lifetime behavior a two step empirical analysis yields estimates of intertemporal and uncompensated substitution effects which provide the information needed to predict the response of hours of work to life cycle wage growth and shifts in the lifetime wage path

a bayesian evaluation of an efficiency wage model with indeterminacy this paper provides a quantitative assessment of a general equilibrium economy with non walrasian labour markets indeterminacy in the economy does not require production externalities or increasin

risk sharing in the business cycle why do all developed economies experience fluctuations in their economic activity the real business cycle rbc literature has provided an answer to this question by demonstrating that a well functioning decentralized model economy subject to exogeneous productivity shocks will behave in a way similar in many respects to the business fluctuations experienced by actual economies kyland and prescott 1982 this is particularly true if one imposes restrictions on the choice set of the representative consumer worker hansen 1985 taking account of demand shocks in the form of variations in government spending further improves the performance of the model christian0 and eichenbaum 1990 should we be content with this answer first we must observe that the set of facts current rbc models are able to replicate is very limited and thus that claims of theoretical success should be proportionately modest danthine and donaldson 1990 second at this level of explanation it is quite likely that the same modest set of facts currently used to define the business cycle will be consistent with models of the economy which are significantly different from the pure walrasian formulations which have predominated to date it is this latter issue tihich we propose to address in this paper our starting point is the observation that all industrial economies have developed institutional and social arrangements designed to improve the distribution of income and risks over what would prevail in walrasian equilibrium trade unions minimum wage laws and unemployment compensation mechanisms are examples of such arrangements and they could be all interpreted as having the objective either of moving the economy away from

current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations hours worked and the return to working are weakly correlated traditionally the ability to account for this fact has been a litmus test for macroeconomic models existing real business cycle models fail this test dramatically we modify prototypical real business cycle models by allowing government consumption shocks to influence labor market dynamics this modification can in principle bring the models into closer conformity with the data our empirical results indicate that it does

equilibrium unemployment as a discipline device when finding employment is costly in this paper we study a model that incorporates costly job search into an efficiency wage model we show that the relationship between wages and detection rates is ambiguous in this framework the model can generate a positive relationship consistent with empirically reasonable values for unemployment rates job finding rates and employment duration dans ce memoire on etudie un modele qui incorpore une recherche d emploi couteuse dans un modele de salaire d efficience on montre que la relation entre salaires et taux de detection est ambigue le modele peut generer une relation positive consistante avec des valeurs empiriquement raisonnables pour les taux de chomage les taux de detection d emplois et les durees d emplois

unions power collective bargaining and optimal monetary policy we study ramsey policies and optimal monetary policy rules in a model with sticky prices and unionized labour markets collective wage bargaining and unions monopoly power dampen wage uctuations and amplify employment uctuations relatively to a dnk model the optimal

unemployment and product market competition in a cournot model with efficiency wages this paper analyzes the impact of product market competition on unemployment wage and welfare in a model where unemployment is caused by the efficiency wage consideration and oligopolistic firms compete in quantity it is shown that while more intense competition in the product market increases output and reduces price it does not necessarily lead to a lower unemployment rate or a higher wage for workers depending on the technologies the relationship between the intensity of competition and the level of employment respectively wage welfare is not always monotonic and in some instances has an inverted u shape resume chomage et concurrence dans le marche du produit dans un modele a la cournot en presence de salaires d efficience ce texte analyse l impact de la concurrence dans le marche du produit sur le chomage le salaire et bien etre dans un modele ou le chomage est cause par des considerations de salaires d efficience et ou les firmes oligopolistiques se concurrencent par les quantites on montre que meme si une concurrence plus intense dans le marche du produit accroit la production et reduit le prix ceci n entraine pas necessairement un taux de chomage plus bas ou un niveau de salaire plus eleve pour les travailleurs selon les technologies la relation entre l intensite de la concurrence et le niveau de l emploi respectivement salaire bien etre n est pas toujours monotone et parfois a la forme d un u inverse

shirking unemployment and aggregate fluctuations empirically real wages exhibit relatively little cyclical variation and a weak cyclical pattern early real business cycle rbc models predict to the contrary large procyclical real wage movements incorporating efficiency wages into a rbc environment would seem promising since one prediction from the efficiency wage literature is real wage rigidity this paper evaluates a common microfoundation for efficiency wages the shirking model with respect to its predictions for real wages within a rbc style model simulations of the model reveal that it can generate dampened but still strongly procyclical real wage behavior

growth and unemployment in a shirking efficiency wage model the relationship between growth and unemployment in a general equilibrium shirking efficiency wage model is explored in contrast to past work on this subject detected shirkers are not dismissed but instead incur a monetary punishment as a result of this modification the model can account for a stable rate of unemployment when there is positive population growth and or technological growth in the economy moreover i show that institutions and policies that limit the ability of firms to punish detected shirkers or restrict their use of discretionary bonuses can increase unemployment and reduce the economy s long run growth rate jel classification e0 j41 croissance et chomage dans un modele de salaires efficients ou certains se derobent a leurs obligations ce memoire explore la relation entre croissance et chomage dans un modele d equilibre general de salaires efficients ou certains se derobent a leurs obligations contrairement a ce qui postule dans certains travaux anterieurs sur le sujet les tricheurs detectes ne sont pas renvoyes mais subissent une penalite monetaire gr ce a cette modification le present modele est capable d expliquer un taux de chomage naturel stable meme quand il y a croissance de la population et ou progres de la technologie dans l economie de plus les resultats suggerent que les institutions et politiques qui limitent la possibilite pour les entreprises de punir les tricheurs ou reduisent la possibilite d offrir des bonis discretionnaires peuvent accroitre le niveau de chomage d equilibre et reduire le taux de croissance a long terme de l economie

do matching frictions explain unemployment not in bad times this paper models unemployment as the result of matching frictions and job rationing job rationing is a shortage of jobs arising naturally in an economic equilibrium from the combination of some wage rigidity and diminishing marginal returns to labor during recessions job rationing is acute driving the rise in unemployment whereas matching frictions contribute little to unemployment intuitively in recessions jobs are lacking the labor market is slack recruiting is easy and inexpensive so matching frictions do not matter much in a calibrated model cyclical fluctuations in the composition of unemployment are quantitatively large

strategic information revelation we analyze the problem in which agents have non public information and are to play an asymmetric information game the agents may reveal some or all of their information to other agents prior to playing this game revelation is via exogenously specified certifiable statements the equilibria resulting from various revelation strategies are used to determine equilibrium revelation of information sufficient conditions are provided for complete revelation of all private information a number of examples are provided illustrating when revelation will or will not occur in commonly analyzed games many economic problems are characterized by the presence of both strategic behaviour on the part of individuals and by asymmetric information models encompassing both of these characteristics have been used successfully to examine questions in many fields usually using the concept of bayesian nash equilibrium as the solution concept typically the agents information is given exogenously and is fixed throughout the analysis modelling the information structure as static is appropriate for some problems but not for all in particular situations that are inherently dynamic most economic encounters allow for some interchange between the agents before the outcome is settled irrevocably in such circumstances it is possible that at least one or more of the agents possessing non public information may be able to reveal part or all of his information to one or all of the other agents in the economy during the course of their contact to the extent that such a communication is believed by the other agents the priors of the other agents will change and we will have what is in essence a new asymmetric information game new in

indivisible labor lotteries and equilibrium abstract this paper considers an economy where labor is indivisible and agents are identical although the discontinuity in labor supply at the individual level disappears as a result of aggregation it is shown that indivisible labor has strong consequences for the aggregate bahavior of the economy it is also shown that optimal allocations involve lotteries over employment and consumption

the most beautiful variations on fair wages and the phillips curve this paper explores the connection between inflation and unemployment in two different models with fair wages in both the short and the long runs under customary assumptions regarding the sign of the parameters of the effort function more inflation lowers the unemployment rate albeit to a declining extent this is because firms respond to inflation which spurs effort by decreasing the reference wage by increasing employment thus maintaining the effort level constant as implied by the solow condition a stronger short run effect of inflation on unemployment is produced under varying as opposed to fixed capital given that in the former case the boom produced by a monetary expansion is reinforced by an increase in investment therefore i provide a new theoretical foundation for recent empirical contributions that find negative long and short run effects of inflation on unemployment

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

labor market dynamics when unemployment is a worker discipline device efficiency wage models of the effort elicitation type have important implications for labor market dynamics these models have a wide array of discontinuous sunspot equilibria driven by extraneous variables in addition to well behaved equilibria characterized by continuous slowly adjusting patterns of employment many aspects of actual labor markets can be replicated by these models for example the longer run movements they predict in employment allow macroeconomic evidence for a large labor supply elasticity to be reconciled with panel data evidence for a small labor supply elasticity many testable but as yet untested predictions about labor market dynamics can also be generated this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

unemployment and the business cycle abstract this paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model where labor effort is imperfectly observable and there is unemployment in equilibrium in contrast to shirking models in the efficiency wage literature detected shirkers are not dismissed instead they face a monetary punishment because they forgo an increase in their compensation estimated versions of the model can generate the high variation in employment and low variation of real wages observed over the business cycle and are consistent with existing qualitative evidence about the responses of the economy to fiscal policy shocks

incentives for information production and disclosure in a duopolistic environment this paper examines the nature of the equilibrium solution to the duopoly problem under various incomplete information structures and the incentives to produce and disclose information attention is focused on the duopolists cost functions the results indicate that disclosure of such information is generally beneficial to the duopolists

efficiency wages financial market integration and the fiscal multiplier abstract we used a new open economy macroeconomic model featuring a labor market friction in the form of efficiency wages to analyze the implications of financial market integration for the fiscal multiplier the fiscal multiplier measures the accumulated effect of fiscal policy on output conventional wisdom based on the basic textbook version of the classic mundell fleming model suggests that the fiscal multiplier should become smaller as financial markets become more integrated we show that a labor market friction in the form of efficiency wages implies that financial market integration should increase the fiscal multiplier

shirking in a monetary business cycle model this paper investigates whether a limited participation model with imperfectly observed effort can reproduce the economy s responses to a monetary policy shock without appealing to high labour supply elasticities or high markups the results demonstrate that the presence of imperfectly observed effort in combination with the limited participation assumption allows the model to account for the presence of involuntary unemployment nominal wage rigidity and the observed responses to monetary policy shocks jel clas sification e3 j41

labor hoarding and the business cycle this paper investigates the sensitivity of solow residual based measures of technology shocks to labor hoarding behavior using a structural model of labor hoarding and the identifying restriction that innovations to technology shocks are orthogonal to innovations in government consumption we estimate the fraction of the variability of the solow residual that is due to technology shocks our results support the view that a significant proportion of movements in the solow residual are artifacts of labor hoarding behavior specifically we estimate that the variance of innovations to technology is roughly 50 percent less than that implied by standard real business cycle models in addition our results suggest that existing real business cycle studies substantially overstate the extent to which technology shocks account for the variability of postwar aggregate u s output

unemployment insurance in a sticky price model with worker moral hazard abstract this paper studies the role of unemployment insurance in a sticky price model that features an efficiency wage view of the labor market based on unobservable effort the risk sharing mechanism central to the model permits but does not force agents to be fully insured structural parameters are estimated using a maximum likelihood procedure on us data formal hypothesis tests reveal that the data favor a model in which agents only partially insure each other against employment risk the results also show that limited risk sharing helps the model capture many salient properties of the business cycle that a restricted version with full insurance fails to explain

business cycles with worker moral hazard we consider an economy with unemployment where firms pay efficiency wages due to effort enforcement problems and face output prices that vary cyclically between a high and a low level ph and pl we show that for a range of pl ph 1 employment and the wage will be cylically rigid and that this range is greater the shorter h periods are for lower pl ph employment will vary procyclically but then also the wage and more so the more employment varies this implies a limited role for efficiency wage theory in explaining employment variations over the business cycle but a greater role for explaining productivity fluctuations according to okun s law

unemployment and business cycles we develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates including labor market variables in sharp contrast to leading new keynesian models we do not impose wage inertia instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers negotiate wages our model outperforms a variant of the standard new keynesian calvo sticky wage model according to our estimated model there is a critical interaction between the degree of price stickiness monetary policy and the duration of an increase in unemployment benefits

optimal monetary policy with imperfect unemployment insurance abstract we consider an efficiency wage model with the calvo type sticky prices and analyze the optimal monetary policy when the unemployment insurance is not perfect with imperfect risk sharing the strict zero inflation policy is no longer optimal even when the zero inflation steady state equilibrium is made conditionally efficient quantitative results depend on how the idiosyncratic earning loss due to unemployment varies over business cycles if the idiosyncratic income loss is acyclical the optimal policy differs very little from the zero inflation policy however if it varies countercyclically as evidence suggests the deviation of the optimal policy from the complete price level stabilization becomes quantitatively significant furthermore the optimal policy in such a case involves stabilization of output to a much larger extent

a non walrasian labor market in a monetary model of the business cycle abstract this paper investigates to what extent a new keynesian monetary model with the addition of a microfounded non walrasian labor market solely based on union bargaining is able to replicate key aspects of the business cycle the presence of a representative union offers an explanation for two features of the cycle first it generates an endogenous mechanism which produces persistent responses to both supply and demand shocks second labor unionization reduces the elasticity of marginal costs to output this leads to lower inflation volatility model simulations show that the unionized framework can better reproduce european business cycle data than can a model with a competitive labor market

unemployment and indeterminacy abstract using an efficiency wage model we examine the relationship between indeterminacy and unemployment insurance it is shown that the less unemployment insurance is the more likely equilibrium is to be indeterminate equilibrium can be indeterminate even without externalities or increasing returns which makes a sharp contrast to the recent literature on indeterminacy our result is based on the fact that the no shirking condition with marginal utility of wealth kept constant is downward sloping when income insurance is not perfect

dynamic incentives by environmental policy instruments a survey abstract in this paper i survey and discuss recent developments on the incentives provided by environmental policy instruments for both adoption and development of advanced abatement technology a main conclusion to be drawn from the literature is that under competitive conditions market based instruments usually perform better than command and control moreover taxes may provide stronger long term incentives than tradable permits if the regulator is myopic if the government can anticipate new technology or is able to react on it optimally regulatory policies by virtue of administered prices taxes and policies by setting quantities issuing tradable permits are almost equivalent the literature also shows that under competitive conditions there is no difference between auctioning permits and grandfathering moreover timing and commitment of environmental policy is not crucial for adoption under competitive conditions commitment has positive incentive effects however if an r d sector has market power in the presence of market imperfections the ranking of the different policy instruments is ambiguous

voluntary disclosure and investment in environmental technology abstract i examine the role of voluntary disclosure programs in creating market incentives for competing firms to invest in environmentally cleaner technology in an industry subject to environmental regulation such as emission taxes such programs may allow firms to credibly disclose their progress in achieving compliance cost reduction through investments in internal rd the outcome of the investment is private information i show that the ex ante incentive to invest is always higher in the presence of the voluntary disclosure program than without it in particular the opportunity to credibly disclose progress in cost reduction allows a successful firm to convey its true position of competitive advantage to the rival firm and realize higher market share and profit thus voluntary disclosure programs increase the efficacy of traditional forms of environmental regulation in creating incentives for green technological change even when buyers have no preference for greener technology i show that such programs generally increase social welfare

public policy towards r d in oligopolistic industries the importance of determining optimal policy towards r d cannot be exaggerated given the worldwide interest in fostering r d and given the significant differences between european and u s policies towards interfirm cooperation on r d moreover the problem is an inherently difficult one because of the complex nature of the r d process since r d is a component of fixed costs industries where it is important tend to be concentrated hence r d policy must go hand in hand with competition policy at the same time r d is like any form of investment in that it precedes the production stage hence issues of time consistency and strategic commitment inevitably arise in considering the choice of r d policy finally r d by one firm typically leads to spillovers wbich benefit other firms so that r d exhibits many of the character department of economics university college dublin belfield dublin 4 ireiatid for helpful discussions and comments we are grateful to two anonymous referees to pedro bartos steve martin massimo motta and damien neven and to participants at seminars in birmingham st andrew s and warwick at a cepr workshop on r d spillovers in lausanne at erwit 94 in caslel gandolfo eea 95 in prague the 1996 conference on industrial economics at universidad carlos iii de madrid and a meeting of the dublin economics workshop this paper was produced as part of the international economic performance programme of the centre for economic performance london school of economics supported by the u k esrc an earlier version was circulated as cepr discussion paper no 1243 see alexis jacquemin 1988 and stephen martin 1996 istics of a public good albeit one that is mostly privately produced tbe degree to which such spillovers occur and can be internalized is another crucial influence on the desirable pattem of intervention