optimal monetary policy in an economy with inflation persistence abstract this paper studies optimal monetary policy in a model where inflation is persistent two types of price setters are assumed to exist one acts rationally given calvo type constraints on price setting the other type sets prices according to a rule of thumb this results in a phillips curve with both a forward looking term and a backward looking term the phillips curve nests a standard purely forward looking phillips curve as well as a standard purely backward looking phillips curve as special cases a cost push supply shock is derived from microfoundations by adding a time varying income tax and by making the elasticity of substitution between goods stochastic a central bank loss function for this model is derived from a second order taylor approximation of the household s welfare function optimal monetary policy for different relative values of the forward and backward looking terms is then analyzed for both the commitment case and the case of discretion

the quantitative importance of news shocks in estimated dsge models we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with several frictions and both unanticipated and news shocks using quarterly u s data from 1954 to 2004 and bayesian methods we find that unanticipated shocks dominate news shocks in accounting for the unconditional variance of output consumption and investment growth interest rate and the relative price of investment the unanticipated shock to the marginal efficiency of investment is the dominant shock accounting for over 45 of the variance in output growth news shocks account for less than 15 of the variance in output growth within the set of news shocks nontechnology sources of news dominate technology news with wage markup news shocks accounting for about 60 of the variance share of both hours and inflation we find that in the estimated dsge model i the presence of endogenous countercyclical price and wage markups due to nominal frictions substantially diminishes the importance of news shocks relative to a model without these frictions and ii while there is little change in the estimated contributions of technology news when we restrict wealth effects on labor supply the contributions of nontechnology news shocks are relatively more sensitive

optimal monetary policy responses to relative price changes abstract an optimizing model with a flexible price sector and a sticky price sector is presented to analyze the effects of relative price changes on inflation fluctuations the relative price of the flexible price good represents a shift parameter of the new keynesian phillips curve the optimal monetary policy is to target sticky price inflation rather than a broad inflation measure although stabilizing the relative price around its efficient value is one of the appropriate goals of the central bank stabilizing sticky price inflation is sufficient for achieving this goal an optimal monetary policy for a small open economy is also discussed

a two sector model of endogenous growth with leisure externalities abstract this paper considers the impact of leisure preference and leisure externalities on growth and labor supply in a lucas 1988 12 type model as in gomez 2008 7 with a separable non homothetic utility and the assumption that physical and human capital are both necessary inputs in both the goods and the education sectors in spite of the non concavities due to the leisure externality the balanced growth path is always unique which guarantees global stability for comparative static exercises we find that small differences in preferences toward leisure or in leisure externalities can generate substantial differences in hours worked and growth which may play a significant role in explaining differences in growth paths between the us and europe in addition to the mechanisms uncovered in prescott 2004 15 relying on differing marginal tax rates on labor income our model indicates however that a higher preference for leisure or leisure externality implies less growth but also less education attainment which seems counterfactual

can behavioral finance models account for historical asset prices i construct a behavioral model of asset pricing in which agents choose whether to base their expectations on chartist or fundamental forecasts i simulate the model in order to test its efficacy in explaining the moments and time series properties of the ftse all share index and find that the model cannot be rejected as the data generating process

average inflation targeting the analysis of this paper demonstrates that when the phillips curve has forward looking components a goal for average inflation i e targeting a j period average of one period inflation rates will cause inflation expectations to change in a way that improves the short run trade off faced by the monetary policymaker average inflation targeting is thus an example of a modified loss function which when implemented in a discretionary fashion results in more efficient outcomes from the standpoint of the true social objective inflation targeting under commitment than the discretionary pursuit of the true objective itself in purely forward looking models average inflation targeting is dominated by price level targeting but we also demonstrate in a micro founded model where the phillips curve has both forward and backward looking components that there are cases when the average inflation target provides more efficient outcomes than both ordinary one period inflation targeting and price level targeting

sticky information in general equilibrium this paper develops and analyzes a general equilibrium model with sticky information the only rigidity in goods labor and financial markets is that agents are inattentive sporadically updating their information sets when setting prices wages and consumption after presenting the ingredients of such a model the paper develops an algorithm to solve this class of models and uses it to study the model s dynamic properties it then estimates the parameters of the model using u s data on five key macroeconomic time series it finds that information stickiness is present in all markets and is especially pronounced for consumers and workers variance decompositions show that monetary policy and aggregate demand shocks account for most of the variance of inflation output and hours jel e30 e10

menu costs and the neutrality of money a model of endogenous price adjustment under money growth is presented firms follow s s pricing policies and price revisions are imperfectly synchronized in the aggregate price stickiness disappears and money is neutral the connection between firm price adjustment and relative price variability in the presence of monetary growth is also investigated the results contrast with those obtained in models with exogenous fixed timing of price adjustment

price level versus inflation targeting abstract this paper shows that price level targeting outperforms inflation targeting in the standard new keynesian model under the assumption that the central bank is forced to operate in an environment characterized by discretion in the benchmark case with no persistence in the shocks the commitment solution can be fully replicated intuitively price level targeting introduces history dependence and a stationary level of prices both of which are prominent features of the commitment solution

how much nominal rigidity is there in the us economy testing a new keynesian dsge model using indirect inference we evaluate the smets wouters new keynesian model of the us postwar period using indirect inference the bootstrap and a var representation of the data we find that the model is strongly rejected while an alternative new classical version of the model fares no better adding limited nominal rigidity to it produces a weighted model version closest to the data but on data from 1984 onwards the great moderation the best model version is one with a high degree of nominal rigidity close to new keynesian our results are robust to a variety of methodological and numerical issues

are inflation expectations rational abstract several recent papers report evidence of an apparent statistical bias in inflation expectations and interpret these findings as overturning the rational expectations hypothesis in this paper we investigate the validity of such an interpretation we present a computational dynamic general equilibrium model capable of generating aggregate behavior similar to the data along several dimensions by construction model agents form rational expectations we run a standard regression on equilibrium realizations of inflation and inflation expectations over sample periods corresponding to those tests performed on actual data and find evidence of an apparent bias in inflation expectations our experiments suggest that this incorrect inference is largely the product of a small sample problem exacerbated by short run learning dynamics in response to infrequent shifts in monetary policy regimes

nonspeculative bubbles in experimental asset markets lack of common knowledge of rationality vs actual irrationality we report the results of an experiment designed to study the role of speculation in the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets in a setting in which speculation is not possible bubbles and crashes are observed the results suggest that the departures from fundamental values are not caused by the lack of common knowledge of rationality leading to speculation but rather by behavior that itself exhibits elements of irrationality much of the trading activity that accompanies bubble formation in markets where speculation is possible is due to the fact that there is no other activity available for participants in the experiment

generalised taylor and generalised calvo price and wage setting micro evidence with macro implications the generalised calvo and the generalised taylor models of price and wage setting are unlike the standard calvo and taylor counterparts exactly consistent with the distribution of durations observed in the data using price and wage micro data from a major euro area economy france we develop calibrated versions of these models we assess the consequences for monetary policy transmission by embedding these calibrated models in a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model the generalised taylor model is found to help rationalise the hump shaped and persistent response of inflation without resorting to the counterfactual assumption of systematic wage and price indexation

externality in labor supply and government spending standard business cycle models face difficulties generating i government spending multipliers exceeding unity and ii stabilizing effects of government size using a simple model with externality in labor supply we show that a sufficient degree of complementarity between aggregate and private labor supplies is key to reproducing these stylized facts

optimal tax policy in the presence of productive consumption and leisure externalities abstract this paper presents the optimal tax policy in an economy featuring consumption production and leisure externalities this extends prior models that only consider consumption and production externalities the immediate consequence is labor income should be taxed subsidized if the leisure externality is positive negative in addition numerical simulations show that in the presence of positive production externalities and irrespective of the sign of consumption externalities an increase in the importance of the leisure externality reduces the distortion generated by consumption and production externalities this effect is reversed if production externalities are negative

consumption externalities production externalities and efficient capital accumulation under time non separable preferences the effects of consumption and production externalities on economic performance under time non separable preferences are examined both theoretically and numerically we show that a consumption externality alone has long run distortionary effects if and only if labor is supplied elastically with fixed labor supply it has only transitional distortionary effects production externalities always generate long run distortions irrespective of labor supply the optimal tax structure to correct for the distortions is characterized we compare the implications of this model with those obtained when the consumption externality is contemporaneous while some of the long run effects are robust there are also important qualitative and quantitative differences particularly along transitional paths

stabilisation policy rational expectations and price level versus inflation targeting a survey we survey literature comparing inflation targeting it and price level targeting pt as macroeconomic stabilisation policies our focus is on new keynesian models and areas that have seen significant developments since ambler s 2009 price level targeting and stabilisation policy a survey journal of economic surveys 23 5 974 997 survey optimal monetary policy the zero lower bound financial frictions and transition costs of adopting a pt regime ambler s conclusion that pt improves social welfare in new keynesian models is fairly robust but we note an interesting split in the literature pt consistently outperforms it in models where policymakers commit to simple taylor type rules but results in favour of pt when policymakers minimise loss functions are overturned with small deviations from the baseline model since the beneficial effects of pt appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy new keynesian we discuss survey and experimental evidence on rational expectations and the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of new keynesian models overall the evidence is not clear cut but we note that new keynesian models can pass formal statistical tests against macro data and that models with rational expectations outperform those with behavioural expectations i e heuristics in direct statistical tests we therefore argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to pt

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

to aggregate pool or neither it is well known that even if all forecasters are rational unbiasedness tests using consensus forecasts are inconsistent because forecasters have private information however if all forecasters face a common realization pooled estimators are also inconsistent in contrast we show that when predictions and realizations are integrated and cointegrated microhomogeneity ensures that consensus and pooled estimators are consistent therefore contrary to claims in the literature in the absence of microhomogeneity pooling is not a solution to the aggregation problem we reject microhomogeneity for a number of forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters therefore for these variables unbiasedness can only be tested at the individual level

ex dividend day trading who how and why evidence from the finnish market abstract this study examines the ex dividend day trading behavior of all investors in the finnish stock market consistent with dynamic dividend clientele theories investors with a preference for dividend income buy shares cum dividend and sell ex dividend the reverse is true for investors with the opposite preference investors also engage in overnight arbitrage earning on average a 2 overnight return on their invested capital trades at the investor level reveal that idiosyncratic risk is an important determinant in the choice of stock for short term ex day trading furthermore transaction costs and dividend yield jointly determine whether the volume of short term trading activity is nonzero