dynamic analysis of aluminum stocks and flows in the united states 1900 2009 abstract a dynamic analysis of anthropogenic aluminum stocks and flows in the u s from 1900 to 2009 has been conducted key findings include 1 historical cumulative aluminum input into the u s anthroposphere amounts to 438 tg with only about 35 of it accumulating in domestic in use stock 2 less than 5 of most flows take place before 1950 while more than 50 of them happen after 1990 3 flows into fabrication manufacturing and use processes as well as trade flows are vulnerable to energy crises basically after an energy crisis the u s tends to produce less primary aluminum less semis as well as less final products and therefore import less bauxite and alumina but import more unwrought aluminum and final products 4 the u s has been a net importer of aluminum from the life cycle perspective with its total annual net import increasing from 1945 to 2005 5 as a result of the continuous increase of net import total domestic stock of aluminum in the u s dramatically increases in the period of 1945 2009 and amounts to 316 tg in 2009 about nine times of that in 1900 6 in use stock comprises about 48 of total domestic stock in 2009 and is dominated by two sectors buildings and construction 32 and transportation 35 7 total per capita stock in use of aluminum keeps increasing until 2009 and currently amounts to 490 kg 8 per capita stock of aluminum in transportation sector increases substantially after 1990s because of the light weighting of automobiles while that in the buildings and construction and electrical engineering sectors seems have reached a saturation level after 2005

the pricing of durable exhaustible resources partial or total durability characterizes a large class of exhaustible resources hotelling s r percent rule will apply to a durable resource produced in a competitive market but will not apply if the resource is produced in a monopolistic market however the r percent rule does not mean that price is steadily rising it is shown that in general the competitive market price will fall initially as the stock in circulation increases and later will rise as the stock decreases and eventually depreciates toward zero after production ceases accounting for durability may thus help explain the u shaped long term price profiles observed for many resources 11 references 3 figures

project based mechanisms for emissions reductions balancing trade offs with baselines project based mechanisms for emissions reductions credits like the clean development mechanism pose important challenges for policy design because of several inherent characteristics participation is voluntary so it will not occur without sufficient credits evaluating reductions requires assigning an emissions baseline for a counterfactual that cannot be measured some investments have both economic and environmental benefits and might occur anyway uncertainty surrounds both emissions and investment returns and parties to the project are likely to have more information than the certifying authority the certifying agent is limited in its ability to design a contract that would reveal investment intentions as a result rules for benchmarking emissions may be systematically biased to overallocate and they also risk creating inefficient investment incentives this paper evaluates in a situation with asymmetric information the efficacy of the main baseline rules currently under consideration historical emissions an average industry emissions standard and expected emissions

trading for the future signaling in permit markets abstract permit markets are celebrated as a policy instrument since they allow i firms to equalize marginal costs through trade and ii the regulator to distribute the burden in a politically desirable way these two concerns however may conflict in a dynamic setting anticipating the regulator s future desire to give more permits to firms that appear to need them firms purchase permits to signal their need this raises the price above marginal costs and the market becomes inefficient if the social cost of pollution is high and the government intervenes frequently in the market the distortions are greater than the gains from trade and non tradable permits are better the analysis helps to understand permit markets and how they should be designed

oil pricing policies and macroeconomy for an oil based economy abstract this paper analyses the oil pricing policies for an oil based economy within a national planning framework it contains a total asset maximization problem in the non oil sector and a macroeconomic model the main conclusion is that hotelling s r percent rule fails to apply for an oil based nation if the minimum import constraint becomes binding therefore the difference between the marginal revenue growth rate and the yield on domestic investment turns down when the import constraint is binding and then it goes through several cycles before it turns up as the constraint is non binding over the planning horizon

long run carbon emission implications of energy intensive infrastructure investments with a retrofit option abstract investments in long lived fossil fuel intensive infrastructure can have large effects on carbon emissions over a long future period we simulate a 2 period model of infrastructure investment with subsequent retrofit to purge its carbon emissions under uncertainty about climate and retrofit costs the energy intensity chosen upon investment depends on current and expected future energy and environmental costs and on future retrofit cost simulations of a simplified but realistic model indicate that energy consumption and carbon emissions can be highly excessive when future energy and climate costs are not considered at the time infrastructure investments are made and charged at globally suboptimal rates when operated often by more than 50 when energy costs are undervalued at this rate both ex ante and ex post good anticipated retrofit options reduce ex post energy costs but lead to ex ante choice of more energy intensive infrastructure which could more than fully offset the energy reducing effect of the retrofit these results are of particular importance for emerging economies with large current and anticipated energy related investments where long term climate policy goals may be seriously jeopardized by policy makers facing too low energy prices now and in the future

stock dynamics for forecasting material flows case study for housing in the netherlands abstract this article discusses the role of lifestyle in physical material accounting and introduces a new method for simultaneously determining national or regional resource demand and waste generation through estimations of the population and its lifestyle which is manifested in the stocks of service providing goods their composition and lifetimes improving our comprehension of the stocks in use is essential for environmental policy making because 1 they are becoming the most important resource providers 2 they are important drivers for resource and energy consumption as well as waste and emission generation and 3 their magnitudes and dynamics are the parts of the material cycles that is usually least understood a generic dynamic material flow analysis model is presented and applied for the diffusion of concrete in the dutch dwelling stock for the period of 1900 2100 simulation results are illustrated for a standard scenario and a parameter variation the results show that 1 construction and demolition flows follow a cyclical behaviour 2 the cycles of construction and demolition flows are phase displaced in the first half of the 21st century with decreasing construction and increasing demolition and 3 growth of the dwelling stock is becoming increasingly more material intensive as a growing amount of material is used for replacements the presented stock dynamics approach can principally be applied for any anthropogenic material stock however it is most useful for the examination of metabolic consequences of diffusion processes of durable and fixed capital stocks

economic growth and the evolution of material cycles an analytical framework integrating material flow and stock indicators abstract understanding the relationship between material cycles and economic growth is essential for relieving environmental pressures associated with material extraction production and consumption we developed an integrated analytical framework of dematerialization analysis incorporating both material flow and stock indicators a four quadrant diagram is designed to classify different stages of dematerialization based on the elasticity of material flow stock to economic output or well being we then conducted a case study on the long term evolution of aluminum cycle in the u s and found that different material flow and stock indicators decoupled from gross domestic product gdp growth in a clear sequential pattern flows closer to the beginning of the aluminum cycle e g primary aluminum production decoupled from gdp earlier than flows closer to the final consumption stage e g consumption of final products in use stock of aluminum decoupled from gdp much more slowly than any flow indicator and had just reached the status of relative decoupling around 2000 this phenomenon is determined by the fact that different causes of dematerialization such as import substitution and secondary material recycling take effect at different stages of economic development comprehensive understanding of dematerialization depends on in depth analysis on material economy relationships from an integrated stock and flow perspective

on the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances to meet its commitment under the kyoto protocol the eu plans to implement an emissions trading system whith grandfathering of allowances besides having distributional impacts the choice of the grandfathering scheme may affect efficiency if firms anticipate how future allocations depend on upcoming decisions in this paper we determine central design rules for optimal grandfathering within a simple two period model we find that for small open trading systems where allowance prices are exogenous first best second period grandfathering schemes must not depend on firm specific decisions in the first period second best schemes correspond to a ramsey rule of optimal tax differentiation and are generally based on both previous emissions and output however ofr closed emissions trading systems i e endogeneous allowance prices firstand second best rules coincide and must not depend on previous output levels they consist of an assignment proportional to the emissions in the first period plus a term which does not depend on firm specific decisions in either of the two periods

determinants of co2 emissions in a small open economy abstract the aim of the paper is to explore the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide co2 emissions for a small open and industrialized country austria we test whether an environmental kuznets curve relationship also holds for a single country rather than concentrating on panel or cross section data for a set of countries a cubic i e n shaped relationship between gdp and co2 emissions is found to fit the data most appropriately for the period 1960 1999 and a structural break is identified in the mid seventies due to the oil price shock furthermore two variables are additionally significant import shares reflecting the well known pollution haven hypothesis and the share of the tertiary service sector of total production gdp accounting for structural changes in the economy emission projections derived from this single country specification support the widely held opinion that significant policy changes are asked for when implementing the kyoto protocol in order to bring about a downturn in future carbon emissions

does ecological economics have a future contradiction and reinvention in the age of climate change abstract this paper addresses the role of neoclassical methodologies in ecological economics and the contradictions these methodologies pose to the field s critical founding principles we first consider robert costanza s treatment of nicholas stern s global deal and then survey climate change related articles published in this journal over the past five years this survey reveals how mainstream neoclassical methodologies dominate discourse and do so by marginalizing more critical political economy analyses this situation imperils the field s founding vision of a no growth steady state it also fails to address the related growth dynamics of capitalism without such a critical treatment the field s formal embrace of methodological pluralism actually entails an ideological empiricism that renders ecological economics theoretically incoherent this situation undermines the field s historical promise as an alternative economic paradigm ecological economics now faces a problematic future its survival in a form faithful to its founding vision will require an explicit choice to address its internal contradictions and reinvent itself in ways relevant to our contemporary context without such a choice ecological economics will likely succumb to an implicit acceptance of the hegemony of mainstream economic methodologies and their pro growth imperatives

is there really a green paradox abstract in the absence of a co2 tax the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of co2 since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of co2 will decrease the effect on global warming is unclear green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit co2 emissions we establish these results by analyzing depletion of non renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited we also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non renewable resource is owned by a monopolist finally we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ thus boosting green welfare however if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare

emissions trading with updated allocation effects on entry exit and distribution allocation of emissions allowances may have significant distributional and efficiency effects it is well known that cost efficiency may be achieved if allowances are auctioned or distributed in a lump sum manner e g based on emissions levels before the start of the system grandfathering bohringer and lange eur econ rev 49 2041 2055 2005 show that a cost effective outcome can also be achieved if the base year for allocation is continually updated updating given that banking and borrowing are prohibited in this paper we examine whether updating alters the entry and exit conditions for firms compared to grandfathering and how it affects profits for new and existing firms we find that the two schemes function surprisingly similar first the incentives to entry and exit are identical second the total value of free quotas to existing firms based on emissions before the system starts is also identical without any auctioning with updating initial claims for free allowances have a shorter lifetime compared to grandfathering but quota prices are higher as firms anticipate the effect of current emissions on future claims to free allowances the two effects exactly cancel each other out if there is some combination of auction and free allocation the total value of free quotas will always be highest under grandfathering if the auction rate is the same entry and exit incentives are still equal

the additionality problem with offsets optimal contracts for carbon sequestration in forests abstract carbon offsets are a frequently discussed tool for reducing the costs of an emissions reduction policy however offsets have a basic problem stemming from asymmetric information sellers of offsets have private information about their opportunity costs leading to concerns about whether offsets are additional non additional offsets can undermine a cap and trade program or if the government purchases them directly result in enormous government expenditures we analyze contracts for carbon sequestration in forests that mitigate the asymmetric information problem landowners are offered a menu of two part contracts that induces them to reveal their type under this scheme the government is able to identify ex post how much additional forest each landowner contributes and minimize ex ante its expenditures on carbon sequestration to explore the performance of the contracting scheme we conduct a national scale simulation using an econometric model of land use change the results indicate that for an increase in forest area of 61 million acres government expenditures are 5 3 billion lower under the contracting approach compared to a uniform subsidy offered to all landowners this compares to an increase in private opportunity costs of just 110 million dollars under the contracts thus the contracting scheme is preferable from society s perspective

linking analyses and environmental kuznets curves for aggregated material flows in the eu abstract the relationship between economy and environmental impacts has been an essential topic in the discussion on environmental problems for a long time from the 1990s this relationship has gained a position in environmental policy as well de coupling the use of natural resources from economic growth has been set as one of the policy goals in the sixth environmental action programme by the european commission in the scientific discussion the concept of environmental kuznets curve deals closely with the de coupling or de linking phenomenon aggregated material flows on the other hand have often been considered as a macro level proxy of environmental degradation different methods or approaches have been designed for sustainability or carrying capacity evaluation as well the objective of this article is i to discuss the possibilities and limitations of using environmental and economic indicators in the sustainability analysis at the macro level ii to present a theoretical framework for the linking analysis including a classification of the degrees of de linking re linking environmental impacts from to economic growth and iii to give an empirical example by using indicators of direct material flows as a proxy of environmental degradation and by applying the framework into the european union and its 15 member countries the results show that the trend in the european union is a weak de linking of material flows from economic growth during the years 1980 2000 in other words material intensity of the economy has generally decreased due to increased efficiency but the absolute amount of material use has increased although at a lower rate of increase than economic growth on the other hand there is a quite large variation between different eu member countries however absolute decrease in the use of materials cannot be found as a continuous trend between the years 1980 and 2000 in any of the studied eu member countries

scale and transfers in international emissions offset programs abstract voluntary emissions offset programs between developing and industrialized countries suffer from adverse selection because participants will self select into the program in contrast pure subsidies for mitigation lead to full participation and hence efficiency but require large financial transfers which make them unattractive to industrialized countries we present a simple model to demonstrate the impact of three policy options on the performance of offset programs 1 baseline scale increases 2 offset discounting and 3 setting stringent baselines with baseline scale increases entire political jurisdictions such as regions or nations are assigned a single aggregate baseline and must choose whether to participate as one entity we find that increasing scale both improves efficiency and reduces transfers from offset buyers to sellers offset discounting means paying less than the value of abatement and can be paired with trading ratios between offsets and allowances in a cap and trade system we show that discounting is inefficient but can make offsets more attractive to industrialized countries setting stringent baselines also involves a tradeoff between efficiency and transfers we finally show that pareto efficient policies that are individually rational for buyers and sellers entail some combination of discounting and or stringent baselines offset policies are never first best but can be efficiency improving especially with increased scale

growth in global materials use gdp and population during the 20th century the growing industrial metabolism is a major driver of global environmental change we present an assessment of the global use of materials since the beginning of the 20th century based on the conceptual and methodological principles of material flow accounting mfa on the grounds of published statistical data data compilations and estimation procedures for material flows not covered by international statistical sources we compiled a quantitative estimate of annual global extraction of biomass fossil energy carriers metal ores industrial minerals and construction minerals for the period 1900 to 2005 this period covers important phases of global industrialisation and economic growth the paper analyses the observed changes in the overall size and composition of global material flows in relation to the global economy population growth and primary energy consumption we show that during the last century global materials use increased 8 fold humanity currently uses almost 60 billion tons gt of materials per year in particular the period after wwii was characterized by rapid physical growth driven by both population and economic growth within this period there was a shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards mineral materials materials use increased at a slower pace than the global economy but faster than world population as a consequence material intensity i e the amount of materials required per unit of gdp declined while materials use per capita doubled from 4 6 to 10 3 t cap yr the main material groups show different trajectories while biomass use hardly keeps up with population growth the mineral fractions grow at a rapid pace we show that increases in material productivity are mostly due to the slow growth of biomass use while they are much less pronounced for the mineral fractions so far there is no evidence that growth of global materials use is slowing down or might eventually decline and our results indicate that an increase in material productivity is a general feature of economic development

incentives and prices in an emissions trading scheme with updating abstract emissions trading schemes where allocations are based on updated baseline emissions give firms less incentive to reduce emissions for a given quota or allowance price nevertheless according to bohringer and lange on the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances europ econ rev 49 2005 2041 2055 such allocation schemes are cost effective if the system is closed and allocation rules are identical across firms in this paper we show that the cost effective solution may be infeasible if marginal abatement costs grow too fast moreover if a price cap or banking borrowing is introduced the abatement profile is no longer the same as in the case with an auction or lump sum allocation in addition we show that with allocation based on updated emissions the quota price will always exceed marginal abatement costs possibly misguiding policy makers and investors about abatement costs numerical simulations indicate that the quota price most likely will be several times higher than marginal abatement costs unless a significant share of allowances is auctioned

voluntary compliance with market based environmental policy evidence from the u s acid rain program the u s acid rain program implemented a nationwide market for electric utilities sulfur dioxide so2 emissions and included voluntary compliance possibilities for nonaffected sources i observe significant voluntary participation albeit with small impact on the so2 market mostly from sources with counterfactual emissions below their allowance allocations an ex post analysis suggests that costs from the resulting higher emissions outweigh savings from shifts in emissions reductions from high cost affected sources to low cost nonaffected sources further utilities voluntary participation is well explained by economic variables which provides new evidence of cost effective compliance strategies and low transaction costs

mitigation incentives with climate finance and treaty options abstract future greenhouse gas ghg mitigation action of current non climate policy np countries is considered to take two alternative forms 1 climate finance payments received in return for future reductions in its ghg emissions below a defined baseline and 2 join a climate treaty whereby the required emissions reductions are formally binding it is assumed that baselines defining climate finance payments and required emissions reductions under a treaty depend positively on current emissions it is then shown that making such future options available reduces current ghg mitigation in np countries leading to higher emissions in the short run this effect is stronger when future climate finance payments are higher the required relative emissions reductions under a treaty are greater when commitments under a treaty are longer lasting and mitigation targets depend more on current emissions such short run increases in emissions can sometimes more than fully eliminate the effect of the subsequent policy when climate finance and treaties are both future alternatives more generous climate finance can make it harder and more expensive to induce the country to join a climate treaty

a new environmental kuznets curve relationship between direct material input and income per capita evidence from industrialised countries abstract many studies have focused on the quantification of the input of materials into the economy however the insights provided by those studies have generally been limited this paper attempts to bring analytical value to the discussion on dematerialization considering direct material input dmi per capita as the dependent variable in a test of the environmental kuznets curve ekc the explanatory variable is as usual gross domestic product per capita the quadratic and cubic versions of the ekc are tested econometrically using panel data ranging from 1960 to 1998 for 16 industrialised countries the results indicate a strong and robust support for both the quadratic and cubic ekc relationships between material input and income in industrialised economies while the statistical support to both types of evolution may seem contradictory it suggests that as industrialised economies grow the intensity of material consumption first increases but eventually starts exhibiting a decreasing trend after a certain income threshold is reached the inverted u or quadratic relationship is confirmed even though for the ranges of income considered in this study the trend is mostly on the increasing part of the inverted u curve however the statistical support to the cubic specification suggests that these results need to be regarded with caution overall the statistically stronger models are the quadratic and cubic models with country random effects and the cubic model with country and year fixed effects

the impact of discounting emission credits on the competitiveness of different cdm host countries discounting the value of emission credits has been proposed as a possible approach for addressing some of the shortcomings of the clean development mechanism cdm it could be used to compensate for non additional cdm projects to increase the incentive for advanced developing countries to move from the cdm to own mitigation commitments and to improve the competitiveness of less developed countries as hosts for cdm projects we assess the impact of discounting on the distribution of cdm projects in host countries with a special focus on least developed countries ldcs cdm specific abatement cost curves are built for 4 regions china india other advanced asian countries and ldcs abatement costs are estimated using the information provided in the project documentation of 108 projects from 17 subtypes in 16 host countries abatement potentials are derived from the current cdm pipeline for each region for ldcs we additionally include an optimistic potential estimation by adding to the current pipeline the potential found by a world bank study for ldcs in sub saharan africa we then assess the effect of two emission credit discounting schemes on these abatement cost curves credit discounting is differentiated by host countries based on an index composed of per capita gdp and per capita emissions in the first scheme it only affects the most advanced cdm host countries in the second one it also affects china we find that discounting has an impact on the competitiveness of individual cdm host countries in the carbon market as it affects their abatement cost curves it could become an instrument for incentivising advanced developing countries to leave the cdm and engage in other farther reaching climate related commitments as a result of the resulting emission credit cost increases however even with discounting ldcs remain unimportant in terms of abatement potential if the financial technical and institutional barriers to cdm development in these countries are not overcome

on the extraction of an exhaustible resource by a monopoly hotelling s r percent rule does not hold for monopoly extractors of durable exhaustible resources an example with a nondurable resource in which the rule also fails to hold is presented an economy with a fixed average propensity to save is modelled the monopoly extractor recognizes that resource extraction by affecting output and hence capital accumulation affects future demand the firm exploits this effect by causing the marginal profitability of extraction to grow faster or slower than the rate of interest depending upon initial conditions conditions are developed under which the growth rate will be less than the interest rate

emissions trading with offset markets and free quota allocations we study optimal climate policy for a policy bloc of countries facing a market where emissions offsets can be purchased from a non policy fringe of countries such as with the cdm policy bloc firms benefit from free quota allocations which are updated according to either firms past emissions or outputs we show that the resulting abatement and its allocation between policy bloc and fringe are both inefficient when all quotas are traded freely at a single price the policy bloc chooses to either not constrain the offset market leading to suboptimal policy bloc mitigation or ban offsets completely the former latter case occurs when free allocation of quotas is not very generous and the offset market is large small it is preferable for policy bloc countries governments to instead buy offsets directly from the fringe at a quota price below marginal damage cost of emissions while the policy bloc quota price will be above this cost with maximization of global welfare and a unified quota price this price is higher and offsets constrained in fewer cases but the solution still inefficient full efficiency then requires a higher quota price in the policy bloc than in the fringe

quantifying u s aluminum in use stocks and their relationship with economic output abstract a dynamic material flow analysis model is developed to quantify aluminum in use stocks and old scrap recycling and recovery in the united states for the period of 1900 to 2007 the total in use aluminum stock in 2007 is estimated as 93 million metric tons which represents approximately 34 of the cumulative apparent consumption since 1900 alternately since 1900 nearly 40 of the cumulative discarded aluminum has not been recycled for domestic use in the u s or for export to foreign consumers statistical time series analysis is used to explore the relationship between model results of in use stocks and gross domestic product gdp unlike most previous studies of material consumption and economic activity which ignore the statistical properties of time series data to the detriment of model estimation and inference data stationarity is explicitly evaluated through unit root testing and model specification is adjusted accordingly the annual percentage change in gdp is found to have a large and significant association with the annual percentage change in net additions to in use stocks model sensitivity and uncertainty are quantified through the application of the fourier amplitude sensitivity test and alternate specifications of product lifetime probability density functions

strategic climate policy with offsets and incomplete abatement carbon taxes versus cap and trade abstract this paper provides a first analysis of a policy bloc of fossil fuel importers which implements an optimal climate policy faces a non policy fringe of other fuel importers and an exporter bloc and purchases offset from the fringe we compare a carbon tax and a cap and trade scheme for the policy bloc in either case accompanied by an efficient offset mechanism for reducing emissions in the fringe the policy bloc is shown to prefer a tax over a cap since only a tax reduces the fuel export price and by more when the policy bloc is larger offsets are also more favorable to the policy bloc under a tax than under a cap the optimal offset price under a carbon tax is below the tax rate while under a cap and free quota trading the offset price must equal the quota price the domestic carbon and offset prices are both higher under a tax than under a cap when the policy bloc is small when the policy bloc is larger the offset price can be higher under a cap fringe countries gain by mitigation in the policy bloc more under a carbon tax since the fuel import price is lower

dynamic models for managing durables using a stratified approach the case of tunja colombia in this paper dynamic models for managing durables are applied for the first time to an urban region in developing countries i e tunja in colombia the focus lies on the analysis of the material balance of furniture as an example in private households one of the major problems in calculating the material balances in regions in developing countries is the low availability of reliable data the investigations lead to the following conclusions 1 in developing countries regional stocks and fluxes of durables can be described using a dynamic model based on a stratified approach this allows for understanding the relevance of different social strata i e the use of goods in form of cascades identifying the parameters relevant for the system behavior estimating a plausible development pattern 2 the three behavioral parameters i stock saturation and residence time of the goods ii ratio of reused to new durables and iii ratio of deposited to recycled material drive the development of the regional furniture balance 3 to anticipate changes and problems in the management of durables in the region the potential changes of these behavioral parameters in each stratum have to be included in the analysis

beyond pure offsetting assessing options to generate net mitigation effects in carbon market mechanisms the current project based carbon market mechanisms such as the clean development mechanism cdm and the joint implementation ji do not have a direct impact on global greenhouse gas emission levels because they only replace or offset emissions nor do they contribute to host country s national greenhouse gas emission reduction targets contributions to net emission reductions in host countries is likely to become mandatory in new mechanisms under development such as in the framework for various approaches a new market based mechanism and even in a reformed ji this research analysed the question if approaches for carbon market based mechanisms exist that allow the generation of net emission reductions in host countries while keeping project initiation attractive we present a criteria based assessment method and apply it for four generic options in existing mechanisms and derive implications for future mechanism frameworks we identified the application of discounts on the amount of avoided emissions for the issuance of carbon credits and standardisation below business as usual as most promising options over limiting the crediting period and over conservativeness we propose to apply these options differentiated over project types based on internal rate of return to ensure cost efficiency and attractiveness

joint implementation strategic reactions and possible remedies this paper investigates the promising proposal of joint implementation ji to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions this was ultimately the only concrete outcome of the conference on climate change in berlin albeit restricted to a pilot phase the basic idea given the public s awareness of global warming sounds economically plausible the industrialized countries the only ones required to stabilize and lower carbon emissions can search for cheaper reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries and economies in transition however this proposal leads to strategic reactions by developing countries reinforced by the fact that this cheating coincides with the interest of the industrialized country in short this proposal will lead to cheating given asymmetric information and will thus produce largely faked reductions in emissions on the constructive side an efficient mechanism retaining the spirit of ji is derived which deters strategic reactions this differs from a usual principal agent problem through an additional hierarchical layer a global authority e g the conference of parties on climate change an industrialized country and a developing country the unavoidable loss that is even associated with an optimal scheme due to strategic behavioural reality the first best optimum is unattainable except at the top leads of course to much less glamorous predictions in emission reductions moreover the implicit subsidization scheme focuses and favours on already efficient partners

evidence of the clean development mechanism impact on the chinese electric power system s low carbon transition the extension of the kyoto protocol till 2020 has left uncertainty dominating the future of climate change negotiations meanwhile on going debate on the variety of measures introduced by the protocol demonstrate that there is no consensus among academics and policy makers on the efficacy of those measures by focusing on a specific but extensive case study which encompasses the whole contribution of the clean development mechanism cdm to the chinese electricity production sector this paper aims to reflect upon the effectiveness of that mechanism during its originally planned lifetime which was to be the end of 2012 the paper contributes to the international debate by offering a new evidence based perspective on the efficacy of the cdm in a strategic sector of the most relevant non annex i country the obtained empirical results can serve as evaluation instruments for both academics and policy makers involved in the elaboration of a new protocol and its related mechanisms while at the same time offering a stimulus for further analyses sharing similar objectives the results reveal a new perspective on the chinese electricity system s low carbon transition while prompting debate over the original efficacy of the cdm

how to make the clean development mechanism sustainable the potential of rent extraction the clean development mechanism cdm should foster sustainable development and greenhouse gas emission reductions the design of the cdm and first experience suggest that it may not achieve these goals developing countries hosting cdm projects may lose cheap emission reduction possibilities for their own future use and sustainable development and technology transfer may not take place on the other hand the cdm has the potential to generate considerable rents if permit prices are high or costs low to account for equity and distributional issues a deliberate decision on how to distribute these rents could be taken and the potential failure of the cdm in meeting its goals calls for some further regulation i suggest to combine these two issues and to extract the rents by a profit tax ideally the tax revenues could contribute to national sustainable development strategies to offset external costs imposed by cdm projects and to extract part of the resource rent they may generate the international character of the cdm could offer a frame for internationally coordinated tax design this would hedge against a potential race to the bottom

correlation analysis of co 2 emissions material stocks and economic growth nexus evidence from chinese provinces abstract a better understanding of the economy material emissions nexus is fundamental in order to reveal the interactions between human development and the natural environment and more importantly to design integrated de carbonization and de materialization policies in this paper we conducted a decoupling analysis of fossil fuel induced co2 emissions and in use material stocks in infrastructure to economic growth at the provincial level in china and investigated the trilateral causal relationships among the three indicators the results show that the average elasticity of co2 emissions and material stocks to economic growth was smaller than 1 representing a status of relative decoupling however in many less developed provinces in central and western china we observed increasing trends of elasticity in the past three decades which suggest their economic growth became more tightly linked to co2 emissions and the accumulation of material stocks granger tests suggest that in the long run there existed a unidirectional causality running from co2 emissions economic growth and urbanization to material stocks in the short run a bi directional causality between co2 emissions and economic growth and a unidirectional causality from material stocks to co2 emissions were detected policy implications for the de carbonization and de materialization transition include enhancing renewable energy utilization upgrading industries to less carbon intensive ones developing compact cities prolonging the lifespan of infrastructure and strengthening the life cycle carbon management of infrastructure

wood and industrialization evidence and hypotheses from the case of spain 1860 1935 abstract the aim of this paper is to study wood consumption during the industrial expansion which took place in the western world in the second half of the nineteenth and the first decades of the twentieth century through the analysis of the case of spain for this purpose we present the series of spanish wood consumption both as a raw material wrm and as firewood fw between 1860 and 1935 and we carry out two exercises with these series the first calculates the intensity of use iou which relates wood consumption in physical terms with the evolution of the gdp the second more complex exercise estimates a standard consumption function that allows us to know the elasticity of wrm with respect to the gdp the spanish price of wood and the spanish price of a substitute material like iron based on our results we discuss the lower dependence of the spanish industrial economy on wood the liberation of forest areas that may have occurred in spain as a result of industrialization and to what extent the trends observed for the spanish case can be extrapolated internationally the main conclusion is that industrialization transformed the uses of wood and though the importance of this resource per unit of gdp decreased its overall consumption increased generating greater pressure on forests at an international level