global inequality how large is the effect of top incomes abstract despite the growing interest in global inequality assessing inequality trends is a major challenge because individual data on income or consumption is not often available nevertheless the periodic release of certain summary statistics of the income distribution has become increasingly common hence grouped data in form of income shares have been conventionally used to construct inequality trends based on lower bound approximations of inequality measures this approach introduces two potential sources of measurement error first these estimates are constructed under the assumption of equality of incomes within income shares second the highest income earners are not included in the household surveys from which grouped data is obtained in this paper we propose to deploy a flexible parametric model which addresses these two issues in order to obtain a reliable representation of the income distribution and accurate estimates of inequality measures this methodology is used to estimate the recent evolution of global interpersonal inequality from 1990 to 2015 and to examine the effect of survey under coverage of top incomes on the level and direction of global inequality overall we find that item non response at the top of the distribution substantially biases global inequality estimates but more importantly it might also affect the direction of the trends

the changing time series properties of earnings cash flows and accruals has financial reporting become more conservative abstract this paper documents changes in the patterns of earnings cash flows and accruals over the last four decades in the absence of a generally accepted definition of conservatism a number of measures of reporting conservatism are identified and examined these measures rely on the accumulation of nonoperating accruals the timeliness of earnings with respect to bad and good news characteristics of the earnings distribution and the market to book ratio the patterns are consistent with an increase in conservative financial reporting over time the findings have implications for accounting standard setting regulation of financial information and financial statement analysis

an earnings prediction approach to examining intercompany information transfers abstract we assess potential information transfers by examining the association between the earnings announcements of early and late announcers in an industry our earnings prediction models are statistically significant much more frequently than would be expected by chance the models suggest potential positive information transfers on average but there is substantial cross industry variation in the strength of this relation we find that the greatest price reactions by nonannouncers to same industry earnings announcements occur in industries with the greatest earnings comovement

endogenous information flows and the clustering of announcements we consider the strategic timing of information releases in a dynamic disclosure model because investors don t know whether or when the firm is informed the firm will not necessarily disclose immediately we show that bad market news can trigger the immediate release of information by firms conversely good market news slows the release of information by firms thus our model generates clustering of negative announcements surprisingly this result holds only when firms can preemptively disclose their own information prior to the arrival of external information these results have implications for conditional variance and skewness of stock returns jel d21 d83 g12 g14 l11

allies and friends the trade policy review of the united states 2006 the 2006 wto trade policy review of the united states reveals that national security concerns have become a dominant influence on us trade policy since 2001 this paper argues that direct and indirect effects of this influence have been deleterious to the multilateral trading system security concerns have led to an embrace of bilateralism that bears little relation to us commercial interests and will arguably detract from ongoing efforts at multilateral trade liberalisation security concerns have also led to a substantial change in customs and inspection procedures for goods bound for the us which could swamp tariffs in terms of their trade inhibiting effect finally the unpopularity at home of us military actions abroad has weakened the us president and opened the door for rising protectionism in congress

foreign investment and spillover efficiency in an underdeveloped economy evidence from the mexican manufacturing industry abstract in this paper we consider the question whether differences in technical efficiency of mexican plants in part derive from spillover efficiency associated with foreign direct investment we use labour productivity as a measure of technical efficiency and relate this to capital intensity labour quality and scale of production we measure the degree of competition by different concentration indices and the final factor determining efficiency is the presence of foreign subsidiaries if there is a positive relation between efficiency of domestic plants and the foreign participation of various industries we conclude that there is a spillover of technical efficiency the empirical evidence from the study indicates that this is the case

the first order stochastic dominance ordering of the singh maddala distribution abstract given two distributions from the singh maddala family this paper investigates how to determine whether one distribution first order stochastically dominates the other the resulting criteria are also applied to the dagum type i family of distributions

farm productivity and rural poverty in india armed with new data we return to an old question from the pages of this journal to what extent do india s rural poor share in agricultural growth combining data from 24 household sample surveys spanning 35 years with other sources we estimate a model of the joint determination of consumption poverty measures agricultural wages and food prices we find that higher farm productivity brought both absolute and relative gains to poor rural households a large share of the gains was via wages and prices though these effects took time the benefits to the poor were not confined to those near the poverty line

a measure of income inequality in the u s for the years 1952 1980 based on the beta distribution of the second kind abstract this paper presents gini measures of inequality for the u s size distribution of total income for the years 1952 1980 a beta distribution of the second kind is used as the hypothetical statistical distribution to approximate actual empirical income data we then examine the fit of the distribution and conclude that the beta distribution provides a good approximation to the actual empirical income data

the effects of changes of the job offer arrival rate on the duration of unemployment generally it is acknowledged that changing the job offer arrival rate has two opposite effects on unemployment duration for a basic job search model sufficient conditions on the wage offer distribution have been derived ensuring that one of the effects dominates however these are not satisfied for the popular families of wage offer distributions here i show that the conditions can be weakened at virtually no cost the set of distributions satisfying the new conditions is considerably larger than the set previously established in particular it includes all wage offer distribution families that are popular in structural empirical research

income distribution and income dynamics in the united kingdom in this paper we propose a model of income dynamics which takes account of mobility both within and between jobs the model is a hybrid of the mover stayer model of income dynamics and a geometric random walk in any period individuals face a discrete probability of moving in which case their income is a random drawn from a stationary recurrent distribution otherwise they stay and incomes follow a geometric random walk the model is estimated on income transition data for the united kingdom from the british household panel survey bhps and provides a good explanation of observed non linearities in income dynamics the steady state distribution of the model provides a good fit for the observed cross sectional distribution of earnings we also evaluate the impact of tertiary education on income transitions and on the long run distribution of incomes copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

the institutional reforms debate and fdi flows to the mena region the best ensemble summary this paper empirically examines the theoretical debate on the adoption of a best approach to reforming institutions identified by rodrik 2008 in the context of property rights protection and fdi flows to eight mena countries the first best approach comprises strengthening domestic institutional functions only while the second best comprises in addition entering into force bilateral investment treaties and the interaction between functions and treaties empirically both approaches to reducing investment expropriation risk encourage fdi flows the positive effect of the second best approach depends on the success of the first best approach suggesting the two approaches are complementary

measuring aggregate welfare in developing countries how well do national accounts and surveys agree in a data set for developing and transition economies the author finds that private consumption per capita based on national accounts deviates on average from mean household income or expenditure based on national sample surveys growth rates also differ systematically so that the ratio of the survey mean to the national accounts mean tends to fall over time but there are revealing exceptions to these general findings the aggregate difference in the levels is due more to income surveys than to expenditure surveys and there are strong regional effects for example the severe data problems in the transition economies of eastern europe and central asia means that there is negligible correlation in that region between growth rates from national accounts and those from household surveys

how well do static indicators identify the chronically poor abstract we investigate how well the most widely used static welfare indicators perform in identifying the chronically poor we propose a normative measure of performance the cost of a given impact on chronic poverty when transfers are contingent upon a purely static indicator using longitudinal household data from rural india we find that current consumption is not always a better indicator of chronic poverty than current income both however perform much better than other common indicators such as food share and access to land

a note on the natural rate of subjective inequality hypothesis and the approximate relationship between the gini coefficient and the atkinson index abstract in a recent paper in this journal lambert et al j public econ 87 2003 1061 sought to establish the natural rate of subjective inequality nrsi hypothesis their statistical analysis however may have simply identified a relationship between the gini coefficient and the atkinson index rather than confirm the existence of a nrsi in this note an approximate relationship between the gini coefficient and atkinson index is identified using simulation analysis this finding does not appear to overturn the nrsi hypothesis and indicates the need for further investigation of this insightful and potentially far reaching hypothesis

underlying causal factors of the european union energy intensity econometric evidence abstract the aim of the research is to determine the main factors that define the level of energy intensity in the countries of the european union the research was conducted by estimation of six baseline and six auxiliary regressions with and without time lags in form of one way fixed and random effects error component models on different unbalanced panel data samples covering the period 1995 2015 the obtained baseline regressions results generate three sets of findings the first set consists of extremely robust findings relating to the positive influence of gross fixed capital formation and industrial gross value added and negative effects of real per capita gross domestic product and oil products retail price these variables are statistically significant in all 36 baseline empirical models the second set of results consists of quite robust findings relating to insignificant influence of foreign direct investment and negative influence of coal price according to the results it cannot be confirm the hypothesis of energy saving technology transfer via foreign direct investments in european union member states the third set of results shows that the research has failed to generate any robust findings for economic openness import ratio urbanization and natural gas price which means that the effect of these determinants on energy intensity in european union member states is unspecified finally auxiliary regressions estimation results show that changes in the sectorial composition within the european union member states economies have not enhanced energy saving technological transfer via foreign direct investments

systematic share price fluctuations after bankruptcy filings and the investors who drive them beginning in the 1990s firms often continue to trade on the major national exchanges after chapter 11 bankruptcy filings for bankruptcies filed from 1993 2003 we find that the more negative the filing period price reaction the more favorable the immediate post filing returns on average this reversal is not attributable to bid ask bounce it holds after controlling for other factors associated with post filing returns and it appears more attributable to the activities of large traders than to small traders supplementary tests reveal that the pattern of post filing returns differs significantly for bankruptcies filed in bull versus bear markets bankruptcies filed during the 1993 to 1999 bull market enjoy substantial but short lived reversals averaging one third of the filing period price plunge these reversals are inconsistent with efficient assimilation of the bankruptcy information in contrast we find no evidence of post filing reversals for bankruptcies filed from 2000 to 2003

distribution of personal income development of a new model and its application to u s income data summary this paper proposes a four parameter statistical model of the personalized distribution of income using the income share elasticity approach suggested by esteban 1986 our proposed model includes the singh maddala 1976 and dagum 1977 distributions as special cases the generalized beta ii distribution of mcdonald 1984 is also a variant of this model it appears to give an excellent fit to us income data and its empirical performance turns out to be superior to those of the singh maddala 1976 dagum 1977 the five parameter champernowne 1953 distributions and the generalized beta ii distribution of mcdonald 1984 on some data

information in the tails of the distribution of analysts quarterly earnings forecasts investors generally measure earnings announcement news on the basis of the difference between actual earnings and two salient benchmarks earnings in the same quarter the previous year and a consensus drawn from a distribution of forecasts by financial analysts we evaluate the implications of a third salient benchmark the most optimistic forecast when actual earnings exceed the consensus and the most pessimistic forecast when the consensus exceeds actual earnings we find that considering the information in these tails of the distribution of analysts earnings forecasts enhances the profitability of post earnings announcement drift strategies

the influence of macroeconomic factors on personal income distribution in developing countries a parametric modelling approach this article examines the influence of macroeconomic factors on personal income distribution in developing countries using a parametric modelling approach the technique is based on the selection and estimation of a theoretical parametric model a dagum distribution which fits accurately to the empirical income distributions of the countries examined the parameters of the model specifically related to inequality are subsequently used as dependent variables in econometric models in order to examine the impact that certain macroeconomic variables gdp growth inflation employment and real interest rates have on inequality the results reveal that gdp growth employment rate and real interest rate are the macroeconomic factors with greater impact in shaping personal income distribution in developing countries

malaysia a success story stuck in the middle this study examines the malaysia development record in the context of widespread concerns that the country and others like it may encounter major difficulties in graduating to the ranks of high income economies it stresses the country s rapid socioeconomic development built on openness reasonably competent macroeconomic management and attention to equity issues it then investigates the country s significant slowdown in investment and economic growth since the late 1990s and asks whether this trend is related to the more general graduation issue our principal conclusion is that the slowdown has less to do with the problem of graduation and more to do with a set of country specific institutional and political economy challenges thus the current concern within the country that it is in some sense stuck in the middle points to the need for a set of major policy reforms to accelerate growth

unsystematic security price movements management earnings forecasts and revisions in consensus analyst earnings forecasts empirical evidence suggests that information about a firm s future earnings prospects is important to investors griffin 1976 givoly and lakonishok 1979 1980 and imhoff and lobo 1984 reported statistically significant abnormal stock returns before at and after announcements of analyst earnings forecast revisions in addition imhoff and lobo documented positive correlation between the magnitudes of the forecast revisions and the abnormal returns these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that investors find analyst forecast revisions informative another source of information about future earnings is projections from corporate officials several studies have found unsystematic stock price changes prior to and or immediately surrounding the public release of management earnings forecasts e g foster 1973 nichols and tsay 1979 patell 1976 jaggi 1978 penman 1980 and waymire 1984 the conclusion from this research is that management forecasts also convey information to investors

2004 trade policy review the united states many of the findings of the seventh trade policy review of the united states are similar to those reached in earlier reviews the us is unanimously acknowledged as having an open and transparent system the us economy has remained amongst the world s most competitive and has continued to support global growth by keeping its import market largely open this review finds however that the us has developed a disturbing pattern of non compliance with wto rules during the period of review the united states enacted policies most notably the infamous byrd amendment and the 2001 02 steel safeguard action that were found to be clear violations of its wto obligations despite these and other such findings the united states has obstinately refused to bring its domestic statutes in line with wto rules in addition in recent years the united states aggressive pursuit of regional and bilateral initiatives has led many members to question whether the united states is committed to the multilateral approach espoused by the wto overall despite the us s many virtues member countries expressed concern that the us s stated leadership of and commitment to the wto is not matched by its actions

the evolution of income inequality in the european union during the period 1993 1996 the objective of this work is to analyse the income inequality in the 15 eu countries during the convergence process to the monetary union using the information contained in the european community household panel corresponding to the four first waves using the inverse second order stochastic dominance concept an ordering of these countries has been carried out furthermore this ranking allows one to determine if the differences among eu country members have increased or decreased during this particular period whether the inequality of income has diminished within and between countries over time was studied gini s generalized family indices proposed by donaldson and weymark journal of economic theory 22 67 86 1980 and 29 353 8 1983 and yitzhaki international economic review 24 617 28 1983 have been used this allows one to test the sensitivity of the results obtained to different degrees of inequality aversion and to different equivalence scales taking into account household sizes

relative price changes and inequality in the size distribution of various components of income this article uses a comprehensive model of economic inequality to examine the impact of relative price changes on inequality in the marginal distributions of various income components in which the marginal distributions are derived from a multidimensional joint distribution the multidimensional joint distribution function is assumed to be a member of the pearson type vi family that is it is assumed to be a beta distribution of the second kind the multidimensional joint distribution is so called because it is a joint distribution of components of income and expenditures on various commodity groups gini measures of inequality are devised from the marginal distributions of the various income components the inequality measures are shown to depend on the parameters of the multidimensional joint distribution it is then shown that the parameters of the multidimensional joint distribution depend on the relative prices of various commodity groups and several other specified exogenous variables thus knowle

2018 wto trade policy review of malaysia this paper presents an academic analysis and review of the recently completed wto trade policy review tpr of malaysia 2018 this includes suggesting policies that can help to promote malaysia s international competitiveness we show that the sharp decline in commodity prices that started in 2014 contributed in narrowing malaysia s trade balance and current account balance as a share of gdp the faster decline of exports as a share of gdp compared to imports accounted for most of the substantial reduction further the collapse of commodity prices was accompanied by a sharp depreciation of ringgit malaysia we also show that malaysia is losing international attractiveness in terms of fdi inflows relative to its economic size this is evidenced by the downward trend in malaysia s fdi performance index since 1992 further international tourism has fallen on average since 2014 due largely to a drop in tourist arrivals from singapore policymakers should introduce policies to enhance international competitiveness such as reforming the education system to produce skilled workers and reducing reliance on low skilled foreign workers

using the dagum model to explain changes in personal income distribution this article studies the evolution of personal income distribution in spain from 1995 to 2005 using the dagum model dagum s three parameter model type i provides a good fitting to empirical income distributions in spain moreover its parameters can be interpreted as economic indicators of income distribution changes after studying the economic interpretation of the dagum model parameters we analyse the impact of parameter changes on different income percentiles and also on the evolution of inequality in spain using data from the european community household panel echp and the european union statistics on income and living conditions eu silc

the developing world is poorer than we thought but no less successful in the fight against poverty a new data set on national poverty lines is combined with new price data and almost 700 household surveys to estimate absolute poverty measures for the developing world we find that 25 of the population lived in poverty in 2005 as judged by what poverty typically means in the world s poorest countries this is higher than past estimates substantial overall progress is still indicated the corresponding poverty rate was 52 in 1981 but progress was very uneven across regions the trends over time and regional profile are robust to various changes in methodology though precise counts are more sensitive

the lorenz ordering of singh maddala income distributions abstract this paper gives a complete characterization of the family of singh maddala income distributions in terms of lorenz ordering in the sense that given any two distributions from this family we show how to determine from the respective parameters whether or not one lorenz dominates the other

earnings surprise research synthesis and perspectives an investigation of the relation between earnings surprise and three empirical anomalies the p e effect the size effect and the value line enigma indicates that the standardized unexpected earnings sue effect appears to be separate and distinct from each of the three the relations between the sue phenomenon and firm risk the appropriateness of the earnings expectations model and the role of transaction costs are also investigated the sue phenomenon is not attributable to inappropriate risk adjustment use of the wrong earnings expectations model or ignoring transaction costs the sue effect may be partly explained by analysts behavior and is both predictable and profitable the sue effect has also been observed in japan

the distribution of personal income revisited in a recent paper majumder and chakravarty 1990 propose a four parameter model which they find provides a better fit to some income data than the lognormal gamma singh maddala dagum and generalized beta of the second kind gb2 distributions this note 1 demonstrates that the model proposed by majumder and chakravarty is a reparameterization of the gb2 and 2 reconciles the corresponding contradictory empirical findings reported by majumder and chakravarty

price equilibrium and willingness to pay in a vertically differentiated mixed duopoly in the framework of a vertically differentiated mixed duopoly with uncovered market and zero costs we study the existence of a price equilibrium when a welfare maximizing public firm producing low quality goods competes against a profit maximizing private firm producing high quality goods we show that a price equilibrium exists if the quality spectrum is wide enough vis a vis a measure of the convexity of the distribution of the consumers willingness to pay and that such equilibrium is unique if this sufficient condition is tightened logconcavity of the income distribution is inconsistent with the existence of equilibrium

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

autocorrelation structure of forecast errors from time series models alternative assessments of the causes of post earnings announcement drift abstract this paper demonstrates that the evidence supporting the hypothesis that post earnings announcement drift pead is caused by investors failure to incorporate the implications of current earnings for future earnings is also consistent with researchers over differencing an already stationary time series specifically we show the evidence is driven by a subset of firms where over differencing of quarterly earnings in estimating earnings surprises is most likely to have occurred given the persistence of the pead over time our alternative explanation suggests that the prior research investigating the causes for the pead overestimates investors naivete

a comparison of the skewness of stock return distributions at earnings and non earnings announcement dates abstract this paper presents evidence that stock return prediction errors are less positively skewed in the time period surrounding accounting earnings report announcements than in a subsequent non announcement period assuming that information available about firms in non announcement periods depends on discretionary disclosure practices of firms and discretionary search for information by investors the results suggest that earnings reports cause more extreme bad news to be reflected in stock prices relative to discretionary sources of information

opening a can of worms the pitfalls of time series regression analyses of income inequality this paper argues that time series regression analysis is of only very limited use for understanding the determinants of income inequality the argument is based on a combination of results from the time series econometrics literature and several characteristics of inequality itself principally nonstationarity of the data in most inequality regression models and the weak theoretical foundations underlying the models a sample of postwar us data is used to illustrate the problems involved

emergent extremism in a multi agent model of religious clubs i introduction religious extremism is as old as religion itself but the tendency to promote militancy and terrorism from within extremist religions appears to be much more common now than in times past juergensmeyer 2001 stern 2003 wiktorowicz 2005 1 today s terrorists routinely frame their objectives in religious terms and organize their activities within religious movements this shift is not due to increased militancy within religion as a whole not even within the stricter subset of religious groups commonly labeled sectarian or fundamentalist bromley and melton 2002 marty and appleby 1995 rather groups with militant objectives are increasingly leveraging the latent potential for violence within extremist religion krueger and maleckova 2003 and krueger 2007 have shown that contrary to popular hypotheses regarding the salience of poverty and education it is instead institutional conditions such as civil liberties that contribute to the origination of terrorists within a country religious extremism has been shown to be a potentially powerful input into the production of terrorism berman 2004 2 and the origination of terrorists has been empirically connected to civil liberties we seek to complete the triangle and connect religious extremism to social conditions in an extension of existing theory and test the predictions of the model in an empirical context with an eye toward civil liberties this paper extends previous models of religious clubs to better account for observed patterns of extremism across different settings and test policies most likely to reduce the appeal of extremism economists at first blush should have trouble explaining the survival of groups that demand large sacrifices from their members successful religious groups however routinely impose all sorts of apparently unproductive costs on their members iannaccone 1992 introduced a formal model of religious clubs within which apparently irrational sacrifice and stigma enhances the individual and collective utility his model demonstrated the feasibility of extremist groups but does less to explain the relative prevalence of extremism across time and place further the original model allows for only corner solutions and as such the viability of extreme groups is indistinguishable from the viability of the more moderate groups they must compete with for members in the religious marketplace in section ii we revisit analyze and extend the club model of religion we push the analysis of the original model exploring sacrifice substitutability of club and private goods and their relationships to member commitment and the viability of extremist groups in this preliminary analysis we illustrate not only the potential insights of the club theory of religion into the strength and viability of extremist groups but also the limitations inherent to the representative agent model we proceed by extending the model in a multi agent ma computational framework this framework permits us to analyze the distributions of agents and clubs that make up a religious economy the computational nature of the model is critical because it allows for sufficient heterogeneity of agents and clubs and given this heterogeneity agent decision making absent closed form solutions via nash equilibria extremists groups emerge as just one segment the high cost tail of a distribution of religious clubs that range across the full spectrum of potential group imposed sacrifice and stigma extremism is identifiable and comparable in the model because it exists within a full spectrum of clubs by varying the parameters of the model that control the distribution of secular wages across agents and the degree of substitutability between religious and secular commodities we can better explain where and when religious extremism is most popular its strength relative to more moderate groups and which economic policies reduce its prevalence

production prices and poverty in rural india this paper challenges the view that increases in agricultural production have reduced poverty in rural india rural poverty is related directly to the consumer price index number for agricultural labourers and inversely to agricultural production the underlying time trend term indicates a residual rising trend in rural poverty after accounting for the influence of these two factors there are plausible though conjectural reasons for believing that to a significant extent the price factor as well as the variables implicit in the time trend term both derive their strength if not their existence from the nature of the growth processes which have generated the observed growth in agricultural production these results contradict ahluwalia s earlier conclusions even though they are themselves based on essentially the same data set

dagum vs singh maddala income distributions this letter shows that the dagum and the singh maddala income distributions are closely related it exploits this relationship to derive lorenz ordering results for the dagum distributions from known results for the singh maddala family

facing up to trump administration mercantilism the 2018 wto trade policy review of the united states as one of the largest trading economies in the wto system us trade policy is reviewed regularly by wto members informed by a trade policy review tpr report this paper discusses the 2018 tpr of the united states the 14th such review undertaken since the entry into force of the wto in 1995 it is the first review of trade policy under the trump administration while the tpr documents the significant changes in us trade policy it does not engage with the mercantilist vision that motivates trade policy under president trump or the apparent desire to engage in trade wars with its major trading partners the lack of discussion of the existential threat to the liberal trading system implied by the drastic changes to us trade policy reduces the salience of the tpr and makes it unclear exactly what purpose it serves

poverty agricultural production and prices in rural india a reformulation the empirical analysis at the all india level demonstrates that while the level of agricultural production and rural poverty were inversely related unanticipated consumer price increases aggravated rural poverty whether the advent of the new agricultural technology in the late 1960s altered the relationships in question is also considered during the new technology phase the coefficient of agricultural production ceased to be significant while that of unanticipated price changes continued to be significant rationalization of the absence of a significant inverse relationship between rural poverty and agricultural production at the state level in terms of distress migration between neighboring states is questioned and an alternative explanation is provided copyright 1989 by oxford university press

government spending growth and poverty in rural india using state level data for 1970 93 a simultaneous equation model was developed to estimate the direct and indirect effects of different types of government expenditure on ruralpoverty and productivity growth in india the results show that in order to reduce rural poverty the indian government shoul d give highest priority to additionalinvestments in ruralroads and agricul turalresearch these types of investment not only have much larger poverty impacts per rupee spent than any other government investment but also generate higher productivity growth apart from government spending on education which has the third l argest marginalimpact on ruralpoverty and produc

risk and insurance in village india comment the protection of poor households in high risk agrarian economies from shocks to their incomes has often been seen as a compelling motive for various forms of policy intervention including transfers of cash or food credit subsidies and public employment schemes for a survey see lipton and ravallion 1995 the desirability of such safety net policies clearly depends on how well pre existing risk sharing arrangements work while it is commonly thought that without effective policy intervention rural households are vulnerable to village wide shocks such as adverse prices or poor rains it is less clear to what extent risk sharing institutions within the village mitigate the effects of idiosyncratic income risk stemming for instance from ill health or localized crop damage 2 several recent papers have used household level data to implement tests of risk sharing that might inform such concerns 3 these tests are based on the proposition that with perfect risk sharing consumption at the household level should be insured against idiosyncratic risks and thus depend solely on the realization of the aggregate risk wilson 1968 diamond 1967 townsend 1994 tests this implication of perfect intra village risk sharing using longitudinal household data on consumptions and incomes for three villages in india he reports that the full insurance hypothesis provides a surprisingly good benchmark in that household consumptions co move and do not appear to be much influenced by contemporaneous own income our aim here is to examine the robustness of this potentially important finding we have two main concerns the first is that the specification townsend adopts potentially biases his test towards the null hypothesis of full insurance because it yields inconsistent estimates of the key test parameter under a plausible alternative we therefore estimate a different specification that generates consistent estimates under both the null and the alternative our second concern is that a particular form of measurement error in the consumption data townsend uses may have further biased his results toward the null hypothesis of full insurance to address this concern we use an instrumental variables procedure when we implement the test of consumption insurance with townsend s consumption data we also re estimate the test equations with a measure of consumption derived from the same underlying primary data by an alternate method finally townsend reports 1discussions with robert townsend stimulated our interest in this investigation the staff of the

insider trading earnings changes and stock prices this study empirically examines the relation between reportable insider trading and the information captured by annual unexpected earnings for a large sample of firms spanning a ten year period 1978 87 each observation is assigned to one of four groups based on the direction of net insider trading buy sell and the sign of unexpected earnings for each of these groups 15 month cumulative abnormal returns are regressed on annual unexpected earnings the slope coefficient is the largest for the group where insiders are net purchasers and the sign of unexpected earnings is positive this is consistent with an inference that insider buying interactively confirms the favorable information captured by positive unexpected earnings and this interaction reduces the noise in unexpected earnings the result with regard to the unfavorable information captured by the group with insider selling and negative unexpected earnings is similar but less pronounced the analysis also suggests that insider trading conveys information not fully captured by the year s earnings

risk coping and starvation in rural china we use a 3 year panel from two poor provinces in southern china to examine the nature of risks to which rural households are exposed and their ability to insure calorie consumption and spending of total consumption against idiosyncratic shocks to their income we find that idiosyncratic risks are indeed the main source of income variation in the sample consumption is better insured than total spending unlike total spending where full insurance is rejected in most cases calorie intake is completely insured for both land rich and land poor households in both provinces access to even modest amounts of land significantly enhances households ability to guard against total spending land rich households are much better insured against total spending than land poor households the results are robust across model specifications although generalized method of moments gmm estimations increase the magnitude of difference in total spending between the land rich and the land poor policies targeting poverty red

output prices and the distribution of consumption in rural india this article analyzes the relation among agricultural output inflation and the distribution of consumption in rural india using both the singh maddala and dagum families to model the entire distribution parametrically employing a benchmark case in which growth is distributionally neutral and idiosyncratic shocks are completely smoothed and using a gmm estimator to deal with potential simultaneity between output and consumption we conclude that i growth was not distributionally neutral ii good harvests relative to trend yielded improvements according to first order stochastic dominance iii slow growth before 1980 went with decreasing inequality iv accelerated growth thereafter tended to increase inequality though yielding improvements according to first order stochastic dominance v consumption smoothing was incomplete

exploring the income distribution business cycle dynamics abstract we document the business cycle behavior of the us income distribution and explore the extent to which unemployment spells and cyclically moving factor shares account for this behavior by analyzing four heterogeneous household extensions of the neoclassical growth model we conclude i that partitioning the population into five types subject to type specific employment processes seems to be enough to account for most aspects of the us income distribution business cycle dynamics ii that the role played by cyclically moving factor shares is small and iii that the income distribution business cycle dynamics may be essentially independent from the significant part of the observed wealth concentration that these model worlds fail to account for

the multiperiod information content of accounting earnings confirmations and contradictions of previous earnings reports in this study we propose and test the hypothesis that investors reevaluate earnings announcements in the light of postannouncement information 1 our argument for multiperiod price reactions to earnings news is motivated by the literature linking price responses to earnings persistence 2 when earnings are announced we assume that investors are unable to determine with certainty the persistence of an earnings

malaysia trade policy review 2006 the trade policy review tpr is an important document for small open economies like malaysia it provides an outsider perspective of its trade policies and implementation in this paper we provide an update of the malaysian economy emphasising the degree of competitiveness vis a vis other asian counterparts we also discuss the issue of regional and bilateral trading agreements involving malaysia with a focus on the services sector finally we briefly consider the issue of tariff protection an issue raised by many commentators of the tpr

united arab emirates fdi outlook fdi is important in building a sustainable and diversified knowledge based uae economy the stock of fdi grew at an average annual growth rate of 45 3 percent over the past decade reaching us 95 billion or nearly 27 percent of gdp in 2012 fdi flows have not recovered from the global financial crises most fdi stock is concentrated in finance construction and real estate recent greenfield fdi is concentrated in construction while more than half of top m a deals took place in finance transportation communications and utilities the list of top oecd home countries for fdi flows to the uae include italy germany chile united kingdom luxembourg france united states and belgium though uae investment policy limits foreign investment and reduces competition the government has undertaken reforms and contracted investment treaties that have encouraged investment efforts are under way to speed up the ratification of a new foreign investment law which removes several of the current legal barriers to fdi and offers foreign investors similar rights to those of uae nationals the uae has high fdi potential with plenty of room for improving fdi performance and benefiting the economy

trade policy review malaysia 2010 the paper reviews the recently completed trade policy review for malaysia we find that in the case of malaysia trade has been liberalised and subjected to structural changes to a very high extent over the last three decades however reform has been less effective when it comes to trade related policies such as investment policies and other national policies that de facto rather than de jure affect competition due to differential treatment of different firms brands and individuals this is also mirrored in the faltering levels of investment in malaysia an area where malaysia has been successful is the reorientation towards services a good example is the tourism industry which is mature and a major export industry in malaysia today nascent service industries such as health finance ict related services and education hold promise to become important export earners in the future the paper shows that for this new phase of structural change to be truly successful malaysia must prioritise trade negotiations and integration with her own region and especially asean

why have some indian states done better than others at reducing rural poverty the unevenness of the rise in rural living standards in the various states of india since the 1950s allowed the authors to study the causes of poverty they modeled the evolution of average consumption and various poverty measures using pooled state level data for 1957 91 they found that poverty was reduced by higher agricultural yields above trend growth in nonfarm output and lower inflation rates but these factors only partly explain relative success and failure in reducing poverty initial conditions also mattered states that started the period with better infrastructure and human resources with more intense irrigation greater literacy and lower infant mortality rates had significantly greater long term rates of consumption growth and poverty reduction by and large the same variables that promoted growth in average consumption also helped reduce poverty the effects on poverty measures were partly redistributive in nature after controlling for inflation the authors found that some of the factors that helped reduce absolute poverty also improved distribution and none of the factors that reduced absolute poverty had adverse impacts on distribution in other words there was no sign of tradeoffs between growth and pro poor distribution

how naive is the market s use of firm specific earnings information recent studies suggest the apparent delay in the stock price response to earnings announcements i e post earnings announcement drift is caused by investors who underestimate the autocorrelation of seasonally differenced earnings persistence i present results that suggest 1 a firm s future persistence is predictable on the basis of its past persistence 2 the immediate stock price response to earnings is positively related to historical persistence 3 post earnings announcement drift is independent of historical persistence and 4 consistent with 2 and 3 the difference between a firm s current observed persistence and that implied in stock prices is independent of its historical persistence these results extend prior research by demonstrating that investors are aware not only that seasonally differenced earnings are autocorrelated but that investors recognize firm specific differences in the magnitude of the autocorrelation

effective protection policy appraisal and trade policy reform when the effective protection concept was rst developed it was widely regarded as a key widely used especially in the context of policy reform and policy appraisal in developing countries this paper re appraises tmeasure of the structure of protection and became widely deployed it was however subject to a he concept reviews the extent of its application and discusses the factors behind its longevity as an investigative tool the theoretical critique on the grounds that it was essentially a partial equilibrium measure which could not be easily embedded ipaper concludes that the measure still has a role to play in evaluating the structure of protection n a general equilibrium framework notwithstanding this critique the concept has continued to be

decreasing relative risk aversion and tests of risk sharing the relative risk aversion rra coefficient of a household whose consumption is close to the subsistence level may be very high for example if consumption is exactly at the subsistence level the household may not be willing to bear any risk if this is the case then the rra coefficient must be a decreasing function of wealth for poor households therefore we should allow the possibility of decreasing rra drra in testing the full risk sharing hypothesis however existing tests in the empirical literature are derived using preferences that exhibit either increasing or constant rra even when they are applied to data containing low income households we therefore use a hyperbolic absolute risk aversion hara utility which implies increasing constant and decreasing rra as special cases to test full risk sharing hypothesis using the international food policy research institute ifpri and the international crops research institute of the semi arid tropics icrisat household level data sets we find evidence in support of the drra hypothesis along with evidence favoring full risk sharing hypothesis at the village level and evidence against the hypothesis at the inter village level when rra is restricted to be constant we replicate the previous results in the literature reject the full risk sharing hypothesis at both levels our tests however reject this restriction and favor drra in almost all cases these results suggest that it is important to allow for drra in testing the full risk sharing hypothesis when data containing low income households are investigated this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

fdi productivity and financial development this paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment fdi on growth factor accumulation physical and human capital does not seem to be the main channel through which countries benefit f rom fdi instead we f ind that countries with well developed financial markets gain significantly

a theory of trickle down growth and development this paper develops a model of growth and income inequalities in the presence of imperfect capital markets and it analyses the trickle down effect of capital accumulation moral hazard with limited wealth constraints on the part of the borrowers is the source of both capital market imperfections and the emergence of persistent income inequalities three main conclusions are obtained from this model first when the rate of capital accumulation is sufficiently high the economy converges to a unique invariant wealth distribution second even though the trickle down mechanism can lead to a unique steady state distribution under laissez faire there is room for government intervention in particular redistribution of wealth from rich lenders to poor and middle class borrowers improves the production efficiency of the economy both because it brings about greater equality of opportunity and also because it accelerates the trickle down process third the process of capital accumulation initially has the effect of widening inequalities but in later stages it reduces them in other words this model can generate a kuznets curve

the dynamics of the wealth distribution and the interest rate with credit rationing are uniquely determined and wealth dispersion among individuals or firms is irrelevant introducing credit rationing into the solow model modifies these conclusions multiple stationary interest rates and wealth distributions can exist because higher initial rates can be self reinforcing through higher credit rationing and lower capital accumulation the wealth accumulation process is ergodic in every steady state but wealth mobility is lower with higher steady state interest rates aggregate output is higher in steady states with lower interest rates because credit is better allocated short run interest rate or distribution shocks can be self sustaining and can have long run effects on output through the induced dynamics of the wealth distribution and credit rationing

united arab emirates trade policy review this paper reviews the wto s first trade policy review tpr of the united arab emirates the tpr raises a number of concerns about barriers to foreign investment and competition in reviewing the evaluation the approach adopted in this paper is to elaborate on two main issues insufficiently developed in the tpr the first is investment treaties which are treated by the uae as legally superior to and prevailing over domestic legal instruments the second is free trade zones which constitute an economic enclave free of barriers to foreign investment and competition the paper provides preliminary statistical evidence on the relationship between inward fdi free trade zones and bilateral investment treaties suggesting the presence of a statistically significant positive association between the three the evidence lends initial support to the concerns raised by the review

book rate of return and prediction of earnings changes an empirical investigation over the years there has developed a fairly substantial body of research on the time series of earnings as a whole this literature concludes that changes in annual accounting earnings are unpredictable that is earnings follow a random walk 1 based on this result some inferences of economic substance policy have been claimed 2 in this paper we reconsider empirical issues which at least to some extent have been obscured by this conclusion we argue that the above result is only true in a limited sense since a modest enlargement of the predictive information set should allow for a rejection of the hypothesis that earnings changes are

originator performance cmbs structures and the risk of commercial mortgages this article examines information and incentive problems that can exist in the market for commercial mortgages that are pooled and repackaged as commercial mortgage backed securities cmbss we find that mortgages that are originated by institutions with large negative stock returns in the quarters prior to the origination date tend to have higher credit spreads and default more than other mortgages with similar observable characteristics properties financed with these mortgages also exhibit weaker post securitization operating performance in addition stock price loser institutions are anxious to securitize mortgages they originate more quickly finally we find that credit rating agencies require higher levels of subordination for cmbs pools i e view these pools as riskier that include more mortgages originated by underperforming originators this evidence is consistent with reputation models in which poorly performing originators have less incentive to carefully evaluate the credit quality of prospective borrowers thereby letting relatively riskier mortgages pass through their weaker screening standards the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press