past as prologue understanding energy use in post 2002 china abstract from 2002 to 2009 china s energy use nearly doubled making it the world s largest emitter of carbon dioxide more than a decade ahead of forecasts why did energy use in china rise so rapidly after 2002 using index decomposition analysis we find that the vast majority of growth in energy consumption in china over the 2000s was due to gdp growth with a small but important amount due to structural change as a result of china s emergence as a net metals exporter changing prices and data anomalies make energy intensity and structural change appear to be more important drivers of energy consumption than they actually were the infamous reversal in energy intensity in china from 2002 to 2004 may simply be an artifact of difficulties in accurately deflating value added about half of the growth in energy consumption in china from 2002 to 2007 was driven by heavy industry using structural decomposition analysis we find that growth in heavy industrial output was due primarily to growth in construction and equipment investment with a small amount due to an increase in net metal exports in tandem these two findings suggest that the primary driver of energy consumption in china after 2002 was an acceleration of the country s investment dominated model of gdp growth without rebalancing the economy toward consumption there are limits to what improvements in energy conversion efficiency and end use energy efficiency can achieve in moderating growth in china s energy use

the term structure of euromarket interest rates an empirical investigation abstract this paper is an empirical investigation of the predictability and co movement of risk premia in the term structure of euromarket interest rates we present regression results which suggest that risk premia in three euromarket term structures and on uncovered foreign asset positions move together we test formally the hypothesis that these risk premia move in proportion to a single latent variable we are unable to reject this hypothesis the single latent variable model can be interpreted as in hansen and hodrick 1983 and hodrick and srivastava 1984 as a specialization of the icapm in which assets have constant betas on a single unobservable benchmark portfolio

the role of capital and labour in shaping the environmental effects of fiscal stimulus abstract although the macroeconomic consequences of short term fiscal stimulation packages have been thoroughly analysed in the literature still relatively little is known about their environmental effects we discuss an important channel through which short run expansionary fiscal policy influences greenhouse gas emissions we show that fiscal policy exerts its impact not only by increasing general level of economic activity but also by changing the composition of factors of production capital and labour using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of economy we demonstrate that fiscal expansion results in a shift from capital intensive to more labour intensive technologies our panel study proves that the latter tends to be associated with lower emissions of greenhouse gases per unit of production hence our analysis demonstrates that an extensive use of fiscal stimulus during recessions can significantly reduce the environmental burden of the additional units of gdp

a cross country analysis of aggregate energy and carbon intensities abstract an update on the study by ang energy economics 9 1987 274 286 shows substantial changes in the relationship between energy consumption and national output across world countries from 1975 to 1997 while the ratio of commercial energy consumption to national output increases across countries as per capita income increases in 1975 the converse is observed in 1997 the cross country energy elasticity has also dropped from values well above unity to below or close to unity using the 1997 data the relationship between co 2 emissions and national output across countries is studied and the results show some interesting differences from that between energy consumption and national output

are macroeconomic policies better in curbing air pollution than environmental policies a dsge approach with carbon dependent fiscal and monetary policies abstract the environmental impacts of macroeconomic policies and their interaction with climate policies are under researched in the existing literature this paper compares the effectiveness of standard macroeconomic tools fiscal and monetary policies with carbon taxation in curbing air pollution by using an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium e dsge model we show how government expenditure interest rate and carbon tax rate should vary over time in order to stabilize carbon emission levels we find that i while all the aforementioned policies could stabilize carbon emissions their underlying mechanisms are different fiscal monetary and carbon tax policies uniquely and respectively lead to a reduction in abatement effort income tax revenue and general price level ii with economic expansions driven by total factor productivity tfp shocks fiscal policy is the only policy that could maintain the emission levels and simultaneously improve household welfare in term of consumption and labor iii regarding the interaction between carbon and macroeconomic policies carbon taxation should complement monetary policy while it should not respond to fiscal policy

assessment of the economic impacts of continuous energy intensity target constraint in china based on an analytical general equilibrium model abstract based on the framework of analytical general equilibrium model this study builds an energy intensity target eit constraint model and simulates the impacts of continuous eit constraint policy on the fossil fuel production ffp sector non fossil fuel production nffp sector household sector and price system in china the main findings of this paper are firstly the eit constraint can change the marginal products and the cross price elasticities of input factors secondly stricter eit constraint can transfer capital and labor inputs from the ffp sector to the nffp sector and lead to a contractionary effect in the ffp sector shown as declining inputs and output the contractionary effect will decline gradually or even fade away if the eit constraint is gradually reduced thirdly if the total capital and labor inputs in the whole economy continue to grow at certain rates along with the weakening of the eit constraint the reduction in energy input and the growth of capital and labor inputs in the nffp sector will slow down however the growth rates of output and intermediate input will increase continuously fourthly the eit constraint has negative impacts on the nffp sector price system and household consumption but these impacts are affordable to the whole economy if the eit constraint is loosened under a certain level it may not curb the growth of fossil fuel consumption anymore therefore other supporting policies for energy conservation must be in place

energy consumption and the influencing factors in china a nonlinear perspective abstract different from many studies on energy kuznets curve this paper does not directly consider income factor but conducts a nonlinear study on per capita primary energy consumption and electricity consumption in china whose economic development is considered investment driven in which government macroeconomic policies especially government expenditure plays a very important role in particular this paper attempts to compare the different impacts of government expenditures and the other influencing factors on energy consumption based on the results of the threshold regression in the future with the further development of the economy the driving force of labor population growth will slow down comparing with primary energy the relationship between electricity consumption and its influencing factors will change later and the difference in the effects of the influencing factors is mainly reflected in the formation of capital stock investment and the development of urbanization government expenditure on private goods may not be always as inefficient in energy consumption and cleaner production as previously thought in the literature meanwhile the growth of government expenditure on public goods will become a powerful driving factor which indicates that the government needs to assess its overall impact on energy consumption and energy efficiency when participating in the provision of public goods the paper also found that when studying the issue of energy consumption and regional differences in china the geographic classification of eastern central and western regions may not be appropriate grouping according to energy consumption levels may be one of the better options and the distribution of energy consumption levels in china s provinces is consistent with the distribution of government expenditure levels the estimation results also provide us with important policy implications the government expenditure in education is of great importance and it can produce a strong energy saving effect through technological progress

integrated multi item production inventory systems abstract we study an integrated multi item production inventory system with stochastic demands and capacitated production the problem is to find the base stock levels which minimize expected inventory costs per unit time for an infinite time horizon when unit manufacturing times are deterministic or exponentially distributed we derive analytical expressions that lead to the optimal base stock levels our results provide several implications about the interaction of inventories capacity utilization and variation in the production environment

on the term structure of the foreign exchange rates and market efficiency abstract the efficiency hypothesis of the foreign exchange market is examined by considering the term structure of foreign exchange rates jointly with that of interest rates in the context of interest rate parity principle the canadian u s data are found to be consistent with the hypothesis of the market efficiency and a constant exchange risk premium

modelling the efficiency of the canadian foreign exchange market a bivariate transfer function analysis the efficient market hypothesis for the canadian foreign exchange market is tested using monthly data on spot and forward exchange rates from january 1973 to october 1995 unlike most previous studies we have estimated a transfer function model which combines the results of the univariate time series models with those of the regression model following the convention equations derived from the market efficiency models have been used in both level and change specifications like many previous studies the results from the transfer function model have failed to provide evidence in support of the efficient market hypothesis these findings suggest that significant arbitraging opportunities existed in the canadian foreign during the period under study

the effects of fiscal policy on co2 emissions evidence from the u s a abstract this paper examines the effects of fiscal policy on co2 emissions using vector autoregressions on u s quarterly data from 1973 to 2013 in particular we analyze the short and mid term interactions between fiscal policy and emissions by using sign restrictions to identify the policy shocks we construct the impulse responses to linear combinations of fiscal shocks corresponding to the scenarios of deficit financed spending and deficit financed tax cuts to consider possible variations of the effect of fiscal policy according to the sources of pollution we distinguish between production and consumption generated co2 emissions the results point out that the implementation of expansionary fiscal spending provides an alleviating effect on emissions from both sources of the pollutant whereas deficit financed tax cuts are associated with an increase on consumption generated co2 emissions the exact pattern of the effects depends on the source of emissions the scenario of fiscal policy that is implemented and the functional class of government expenditure being increased

industrial structure energy saving regulations and energy intensity evidence from chinese cities abstract exploring the drivers of declining energy intensity is necessary in order to accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy in china to date studies have typically adopted case analysis to link enterprise features and energy saving performance the impact of internal industrial configuration in terms of size and ownership structure on aggregate energy intensity remains to be examined to fill this research gap this paper tests the impact of the internal structure of industries on city level energy intensity by employing a unique panel dataset of 283 cities for the period 2005 to 2010 the driscoll kraay method and instrumental variable are used to treat residual cross sectional dependence and endogeneity respectively results suggest that small scale enterprises exerts a negative effect on energy intensity a 1 increase in the output value proportion of small sized firms will lead to a decrease in total energy intensity of 0 067 in contrast the same change by medium enterprises will raise energy intensity by 0 031 a negative and or non significant coefficient suggests that for most energy intensive large and state owned enterprises china s 2006 top down energy saving regulation has been quite effective in targeting key energy intensive enterprises in china the findings reveal that state owned enterprises soes can act as promoters of rather than barriers to low carbon policy implementation in china given that the effectiveness of energy saving regulation will be undermined as a result of diluted regulatory strength in each enterprise market oriented energy price reform is proposed as a fundamental driver for guaranteeing a continual decline in energy intensity

the influential factors of china s regional energy intensity and its spatial linkages 1988 2007 abstract a large amount of literature on china s energy intensity seldom considers the regional differences of energy intensity inside china and the spatial effects based on spatial statistics methods this paper explores the regional imbalance of china s provincial energy intensity and the spatially correlation of energy intensity among provinces using spatial panel data models this paper finds that gdp per capita transportation infrastructure the level of marketization and scientific and technological input significantly reduce the energy intensity the ratio of heavy industries to total industries and the ratio of coal consumption to total energy consumption significantly expand the energy intensity meanwhile the coefficient of the ratio of export to gdp is not significant then the spillover and convergence of china s regional energy intensity have been tested the results indicate that the spillover effect between the eastern and western china is remarkable and there exist absolute convergence of provincial energy intensity moreover gdp per capita transportation infrastructure the level of marketization and scientific technological input are conducive to conditional convergence after the spatial effects are controlled according to the empirical results this paper proposes some policy suggestions on reducing china s energy intensity

covered interest arbitrage and market turbulence the covered interest parity theorem states that the covered interest differential between two similar assets denominated in different currencies should be zero this paper utilizes high quality data recorded by the dealers at the bank of england to test covered interest parity during certain historical periods in which there is known to have been turbulence as well as during a relatively calm control period the data is high frequency and allowance is made for the bid offer spread brokerage costs and other considerations the results have three main implications firstly profitable arbitrage opportunities do occasionally occur and sometimes persist during turbulent periods secondly the degree of efficiency of the relevant markets appears to have increased over time thirdly there appears to be a maturity effect whereby the existence and size of profitable arbitrage opportunities appear to be positive functions of the length of maturity a rationalization of this phenomenon is offered in terms of the existence of credit limits copyright 1989 by royal economic society

china s changing energy intensity trend a decomposition analysis china experienced a dramatic decline in energy intensity from the onset of economic reform in the late 1970s until 2000 but since then the rate of decline slowed and energy intensity actually increased in 2003 most previous studies found that most of the decline was due to technological change but disagreed on the role of structural change to the best of our knowledge no decomposition study has investigated the role of inter fuel substitution in the decline in energy intensity or the causes of the rise in energy intensity since 2000 in this paper we use logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period 1980 2003 we find that 1 technological change is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in energy intensity 2 structural change at the industry and sector sub industry level actually increased energy intensity over the period of 1980 2003 although the structural change at the industry level was very different in the 1980s and in the post 1990 period 3 structural change involving shifts of production between sub sectors however decreased overall energy intensity 4 the increase in energy intensity since 2000 is explained by negative technological progress 5 inter fuel substitution is found to contribute little to the changes in energy intensity

rational expectations risk and efficiency in the london metal exchange an empirical analysis there now exists a number of studies which reject efficiency of the london metal exchange as a joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and risk neutrality in this paper we investigate the presence of time varying risk premia in a number of metal price series conditional on the assumption of rationality our findings include evidence to suggest that forward prices contain information on future spot prices over and above the information contained in current spot prices that there is some evidence of time varying premia in the forward prices for tin and zinc and that the behaviour of these premia are intuitively plausible in particular there appears to be significant covariation between risk premia and the expected spot price change

optimal production and inventory policy for multiple products under resource constraints we show that a modified base stock policy is optimal for multiproduct infinite horizon production inventory systems where demand for the products is random and the products share a finite resource every period we characterize the optimal policy for the case of homogeneous products because of the difficulty in computing the optimal base stock levels for the heterogeneous case we propose a heuristic that is simple enough for practical applications we present numerical results that suggest that the heuristic yields near optimal solutions

government expenditure and energy intensity in china the recent economic stimulus package of china has raised growing concern about its potential impact on energy demand and efficiency to what extent does such expansion of government expenditure influence energy intensity this question has not been well answered by the previous research using provincial panel data this paper provides some evidence of a link between government expenditure and energy intensity in china the empirical results demonstrate that the expansion of government expenditure since asian financial crisis has exerted a significant influence on energy intensity an increase in government expenditure in china leads to an increase in energy intensity further analysis compares such relationships in different economic situations the comparison shows that such positive effect of government expenditure remains significant after the alteration in economic situation therefore the results suggest introducing some measures to consolidate china s existing gains in energy efficiency the analysis also explains why the downward trend in energy intensity is reversed in china since 2002

energy intensity and its determinants in china s regional economies abstract this paper contributes to the existing literature as well as policy debates by examining energy intensity and its determinants in china s regional economies the analysis is based on a comprehensive database of china s regional energy balance constructed for this project through its focus on regional china this study extends the existing literature which mainly covers nationwide studies it is found in this paper that energy intensity declined substantially in china the main contributing factor is the improvement in energy efficiency changes in the economic structure have so far affected energy intensity modestly thus there is considerable scope to reduce energy intensity through the structural transformation of the chinese economy in the future

robustness of capacity rationing policies a recent paper discusses a capacity rationing policy that allows make to order manufacturing firms encountering expected total demand in excess of available capacity to discriminate between two classes of products one yielding a higher profit contribution per unit of capacity allocated to it than the other the result is a selective rejection of orders for the class with lower unit contribution yielding an increase in total profit when compared to a base case that implements no capacity rationing implementation of the policy requires forecasts of demand parameters for both product classes in this paper we test the sensitivity of the capacity rationing policy to forecast errors in these parameters the results indicate that on average the rationing policy is quite robust in improving profit even when actual demands are approximately twenty percent different from forecast values

fuel consumption in road transport a comparative study of china and oecd countries abstract energy conservation and emissions reduction have been the focus of the road transport sector due to its energy intensive and air pollution intensive nature it also embodies the imprints of human technological progress this paper compares the energy consumption of the road transport sector in china and oecd countries we used time series and panel data co integration analysis error correction model and dynamic model to study the impacts of the major influencing factors such as income income structure urbanization price and technological advancement on gasoline and diesel consumption in road transport overall china s fuel consumption is influenced mainly by investment government expenditure and demographic changes such as urbanization while the fuel consumption of oecd countries is mainly driven by household final consumption expenditure in the short run and from a dynamic perspective china s fuel consumption is less influenced by its historical consumption than current influencing factors while that of oecd countries is more affected by historical fuel consumption based on the analysis and findings of this study some policy implications are proposed

effects of urbanization on energy efficiency in china new evidence from short run and long run efficiency models abstract energy efficiency in china has been the cause for increasing concern for national and local sustainable development due to rapid economic development and large scale energy consumption using panel data of 30 provinces between 1997 and 2016 in china the measurement of energy efficiency is disentangled and the effects of urbanization on different types of energy efficiency are explored first the measurement of energy efficiency is disentangled with long run and short run efficiencies derived results of energy efficiency scores highlight the predominant status of long run inefficiency is low and that disparate energy efficiency is present between provinces second the effects of urbanization were found to be significantly negative on short run long run and overall energy efficiency comparatively the effect of urbanization on long run efficiency was shown to have recently grown implying an urgent call for energy conservation during rapid urbanization finally this study outlines broader implications and suggests policies to improve energy efficiency here application of energy conservation technology industrial structure upgrading and efficiency information disclosure to urban residents are thought to be smart ways to improve energy efficiency

china s ongoing energy efficiency drive origins progress and prospects abstract in 2004 china s government launched a vigorous programme to reverse the trend of rising national energy intensity and to reduce intensity by 20 over the period 2006 2010 the aim of this paper is to examine this programme in the context of nearly 30 years of measures to enhance energy efficiency in china and thus to evaluate the likelihood that today s policies will yield improvements over a longer period the country achieved a sustained decline of energy intensity in the period 1980 2001 but this trend was reversed in 2002 this reversal arose from a shift in the structure of the economy to more energy intensive industries and from a decline in the rate of technical innovation the measures taken since 2003 have been directed principally at energy intensive industries but have also addressed other sectors of the economy though the energy intensity target for the year 2010 may be achieved greater efforts will be needed to address a number of constraints which include the reluctance to use economic and financial instruments the dependency of energy policy on industrial and social policies the nature of political decision making and of public administration a shortage of skills and social attitudes to energy

the impact of human behavior on ecological threshold positive or negative grey relational analysis of ecological footprint energy consumption and environmental protection human behavior has the positive and negative impact on ecosystem to study the interaction between ecosystem and behavior system per capita energy ecological footprint eef is selected as the ecosystem threshold elasticity coefficient of environmental investment ecei and elasticity coefficient of energy consumption ecec represent the positive and negative human impact on ecosystem respectively it takes shanghai china as the empirical area to implement grey relational analysis of per capita eef consist of coal coke fuel oil and electricity ecec and ecei from 1978 to 2010 the grey correlation coefficients show that negative behavior of energy consumption has the closer influence on the ecosystem than positive behavior of environmental protection electricity is the most significant factor of the energy consumption and the highest sensitive indicator to the environmental capital input output from the perspective of government policy energy saving is more efficient than emission reduction reducing the negative activities is imminent in the current process of development

on some international parity conditions an empirical investigation abstract this paper investigates weak semi strong and strong forms of the following international parity conditions a uncovered interest parity b the hypothesis of equal ex ante real interest rates and c ex ante purchasing power parity the main results are as follows using data which roughly cover the 1975 1984 decade we find little evidence in favor of the strong form of the parity conditions under consideration however most test results are consistent with the weak forms finally regarding the semi strong forms the results are mixed

what induced china s energy intensity to fluctuate 1997 2006 abstract china is the second largest energy consumer in the world during 1997 2002 china s energy intensity declined by 33 however it rose by 10 7 over 2003 2005 and declined by 1 2 in 2006 what induced china s energy intensity to fluctuate so drastically industry accounts for approximately 70 of the total energy consumption in china in this paper we decompose china s industrial energy intensity changes between 1997 and 2002 into sectoral structural effects and efficiency effects measured by sectoral energy intensities at two digit level and including the shifts of product mix in the sub sector or firm level using tornqvist and sato vartia index methods the results show that in this period efficiency effects possibly contributed to a majority of the decline while the contribution from structural effects was less during 2003 2005 the excessive expansion of high energy consuming sub sectors and the high investment ratio were foremost sources of the increasing energy intensity attributed to the government efforts the energy intensity has started to decline slightly since july 2006 in future to save more energy in addition to technical progress china should attach more importance to optimizing its sectoral structure and lowering its investment ratio

testing interest rate parity and rational expectations for canada and the united states the purpose of this paper is to examine the joint hypothesis of interest rate parity and rational expectations for canada and the united states using monthly data two approaches to testing are considered 1 the substitution method and 2 testing the cross equation non linear rational expectations restrictions from solving the interest rate parity equation it is demonstrated that standard application of the substitution method requires the assumption that the interest rate parity equation holds deterministically tests for unit roots in the spot exchange rate and interest rate differentials are also investigated

allocating production capacity among multiple products we consider the problem of allocating production capacity among multiple items assuming that a fixed proportion of overall capacity can be dedicated exclusively to the production of each item given a capacity allocation production of each item follows a base stock policy i e each demand triggers a replenishment order to restore safety stocks to target levels we present procedures for choosing base stock levels and capacity allocations that are asymptotically optimal our objective is to minimize holding and backorder costs or to minimize holding costs subject to a service level constraint asymptotic optimality refers to large backorder penalties or stringent service level constraints numerical results indicate that our rules perform very well even far from the asymptotic regime a further approximation step results in allocation rules based on heavy traffic limits these too perform well

expectations of exchange rates and differential inflation rates further evidence on purchasing power parity in efficient markets the paper tests the null hypothesis of ex ante purchasing power parity the empirical evidence obtained is inconsistent with the null for major industrialized countries over the current floating exchange rate regime expected nominal exchange rate changes appear to deviate systematically from expected inflation rate differentials over the same holding period even though real exchange rate changes appear to be serially uncorrelated this supports the presence of time varying risk premia in foreign exchange markets and real determinants of exchange rate movements as suggested by equilibrium theories of international asset markets this paper tests the hypothesis that the expected change in the exchange rate of two countries equals the expected differential in their inflation rates over the same holding period this relationship is an ex ante version of the classical relative purchasing power parity ppp that holds under some versions of efficient foreign exchange and international commodity markets it has important implications for the efficacy of government policies in open economies and has been the focus of numerous empirical studies the ex ante ppp eppp differs from the traditional ppp proposed by cassel 4 in the explicit treatment of uncertainty as formulated by roll 32 the eppp is based on the constraint that in efficient markets the net return to speculators engaging in intertemporal speculation on goods in the foreign country is anticipated to be zero 1 an immediate implication of eppp is that innovations in real exchange rates or deviations from ppp follow a martingale process in sharp contrast to the well documented empirical rejections of the conventional ppp strong support for the martingale property of eppp exists in the literature 2 the proposition that the differences in the expected price relatives of two countries are exactly accounted for by the expected change in exchange rates over the same period is inconsistent with a number of theoretical observations in the extant literature in particular the eppp model assumes that the expected real interest rate differential between each pair of countries is intertemporally constant in order to rule out commodity and financial arbitrage in a world of

china s large scale power shortages of 2004 and 2011 after the electricity market reforms of 2002 explanations and differences abstract since the electricity market reforms of 2002 two large scale power shortages one occurring in 2004 and one in 2011 exerted a tremendous impact on the economic development of china and also gave rise to a fierce discussion regarding electricity system reforms in this paper the background and the influence scale of the two power shortages are described second reasons for these two large scale power shortages are analyzed from the perspectives of power generation power consumption and coordination of power sources and grid network construction investments characteristics of these two large scale power shortages are then summarized by comparatively analyzing the performance and the formation of the reasons behind these two large scale power shortages finally some effective measures that take into account the current status of electricity market reforms in china are suggested this paper concludes that to eliminate power shortages in china both the supply and the demand should be considered and these considerations should be accompanied by supervisory policies and incentive mechanisms

tests of rational expectations and no risk premium in forward exchange markets abstract this paper tests the simple efficiency hypothesis i e that traders have rational expectations and charge no risk premium in the forward exchange market it uses a statistical procedure which is consistent under a large class of heteroscedasticity and a set of data which takes into account the institutional features of the forward exchange market the results show that this procedure leads to stronger rejections of the simple efficiency hypothesis than do procedures using the standard assumption of homoscedasticity

an analysis of bid price controls for network revenue management bid prices are becoming an increasingly popular method for controlling the sale of inventoryin revenue management applications in this form of control threshold or bid prices are set for the resources or units of inventory seats on flight legs hotel rooms on specific dates etc and a product a seat in a fare class on an itinerary or room for a sequence of dates is sold only if the offered fare exceeds the sum of the threshold prices of all the resources needed to supply the product this approach is appealing on intuitive and practical grounds but the theory underlying it is not well developed moreover the extent to which bid price controls represent optimal or near optimal policies is not well understood using a general model of the demand process we show that bid price control is not optimal in general and analyze why bid price schemes can fail to produce correct accept deny decisions however we prove that when leg capacities and sales volumes are large bid price controls are asymptotically optimal provided the right bid prices are used we also provide analytical upper bounds on the optimal revenue in addition we analyze properties of the asymptotically optimal bid prices for example we show they are constant over time even when demand is nonstationary and that they may not be unique

what goes up recent trends in china s energy consumption since 1996 china s energy output has dropped by 17 while primary energy use has fallen by 4 driven almost entirely by shrinking output from coal mines and declining direct use since china is the world s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases it is important to understand the sources of this apparent transformation and whether it portends a permanent change in patterns of energy use this remarkable reversal of the long term expansion of energy use has occurred even as the economy has continued to grow albeit more slowly than in the early 1990s generation of electric power has risen implying a steep fall in end uses particularly in industry available information points to a variety of forces contributing to this phenomenon including rapid improvements in coal quality structural changes in industry shutdowns of factories in both the state owned and non state segments of the economy improvements in end use efficiency and greater use of gas and electricity in households a combination of slowing economic growth industrial restructuring broader economic system reforms and environmental and energy efficiency policies has apparently led to at least a temporary decline in and perhaps a long term reduction in the growth of energy use and therefore greenhouse gas emissions

causal relationship between energy consumption and gdp growth revisited a dynamic panel data approach abstract this paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and gdp for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002 based on the income levels defined by the world bank the data are divided into four categories low income group lower middle income group upper middle income group and high income group we employ the gmm sys approach for the estimation of the panel var model in each of the four groups afterwards the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained we discover a in the low income group there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth b in the middle income groups lower and upper middle income groups economic growth leads energy consumption positively c in the high income group countries economic growth leads energy consumption negatively after further in depth analysis of energy related data the results indicate that in the high income group there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of co2 however in the upper middle income group countries after the energy crisis the energy efficiency declines and the release of co2 rises since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries

the term structure of the forward premium abstract most studies of the efficiency of the foreign exchange market focus on a single maturity usually a one month forward exchange rate however one observes that forward contracts of many maturities are simultaneously traded in the foreign exchange market the hypothesis that the foreign exchange market uses all available information has implications for the joint behavior of forward exchange rates of various maturities this paper proposes an equilibrium theory of the term structure of the forward premium the model is tested using data on the german and canadian exchange rates the results indicate that the data are consistent with the theory for germany and inconsistent with the theory for canada

can we sterilize theory and evidence under managed floating as under the bretton woods system central banks have intervened heavily in the foreign exchange market as before they have often attempted to divorce their intervention activities from their money supplies through offsetting operations in domestic financial markets an official purchase of foreign exchange can be sterilized through a corresponding openmarket sale of domestic securities the transaction which is equivalent to an official forward sale of domestic currency leaves relative money supplies unchanged but alters the relative supplies of foreign and domestic currency bonds available to the public regardless of the exchange rate regime sterilized intervention may be viewed as an attempt to attain independent exchange rate and money stock targets in the short run for this to be possible bonds denominated in different currencies must be imperfect substitutes in private portfolios if feasible sterilization may or may not be useful in attaining the long run objectives of the central bank

what drive the changes in china s energy consumption and intensity during 12th five year plan period abstract during the 12th five year plan period 2011 2015 the chinese government has released a series of energy conservation plans to launch and deepen the transition in the energy use particularly the dual control of the energy consumption and energy intensity was firstly emphasized this paper intends to explore the targeted and effective energy policy implications through investigating the drivers of changes in energy consumption intensity of china during the 12th five year plan period under the input output framework the embodied energy consumptions intensities by final demand category were estimated at aggregate sector level and the total energy consumption intensity was decomposed using the additive multiplicative structural decomposition analysis among the final demand categories china s energy consumption intensity was mainly contributed by the investment followed by the household consumption according to the sda results china s total energy consumption increased by 28 8 of which the energy intensity effect and the investment effect were the most retardant and accelerator respectively at the same time china s total aggregate energy intensity decreased by 16 0 of which the energy intensity effect and the household consumption effect were the most retardant and accelerator respectively in detail the key sectors with respect to the critical effects were picked out above all policy implications are discussed for achieving the energy goals during the 13th five year plan period and launching the energy revolution during the 14th five year plan period

china s energy consumption change from 1987 to 2007 a multi regional structural decomposition analysis abstract increasing use of energy has helped to stimulate china s economy despite central planning china has great differences in economic development energy endowment and energy consumption across its regions this paper uses the structural decomposition approach to uncover the regional disparities in energy consumption from 1987 to 2007 we also examine six possible key factors for the change in energy consumption by region we find that final demand change outpaced efficiency improvements to drive up energy use in all regions between 1987 and 2007 more surprisingly from 2002 to 2007 it appears that changes in production structure enhanced energy consumption in most regions china produced more energy intensive goods for capital investment and export we contend that improving the energy efficiency of key energy intensive sectors would lead a significant decline in energy intensity energy directly or indirectly is flowing from northwest central and north china to coastal regions regional specific policies should be designed to promote production structure change and curb energy demand

managing capacity in tightly constrained systems abstract many make to order firms face total expected demand in excess of available capacity this is particularly true in the short range for capital intensive firms such as those in the flow process industry firms making short life cycle products such as those in high fashion apparel industry and printing shops in such situations the manager is left with the difficult task of allocating the available capacity between competing classes of products and or customers at the same time the manager is faced with the challenge of achieving delivery dependability and speed in order to stay competitive in this paper i describe the problem contrast it with a class of problems known as perishable asset revenue management problems review recent literature that presents alternative approaches for managing capacity such as capacity rationing improved coordination mechanisms and subcontracting and discuss fruitful avenues for future research

does urbanization affect energy intensities across provinces in china long run elasticities estimation using dynamic panels with heterogeneous slopes abstract although there has been extensive debate in the literature that addresses the impact of urbanization on total energy use the relative magnitude of each impact channel has not been empirically examined and urbanization s effects on energy transition dynamics in china remains unknown using panel datasets at the provincial level from 1986 to 2011 this paper employs dynamic models to investigate both the long run and short run elasticities of urbanization on energy intensities and the most significant impact channel is identified coal intensity and electricity intensity are also modeled to reveal energy transition dynamics driven by urbanization a set of newly developed regression techniques namely well performed common correlated effects mean group ccemg and augmented mean group amg estimators are used to treat residual cross sectional dependence nonstationary residuals and unlikely to hold homogeneous slope assumptions the results obtained verify that the net effects of urbanization on overall energy intensity and electricity intensity are statistically positive with long run elasticities of 0 14 to 0 37 and 0 23 to 0 29 respectively whereas china s urbanization does not significantly increase coal intensity the fact that short run elasticities account for a majority of corresponding long run values indicates that the short run effect that is indirect energy use induced by urban infrastructures is the most significant impact channel of urbanization on energy use in china an energy transition from high pollution coal to clean electricity is also present in china although the fundamental transition to renewable energy is still in its infancy from a regional perspective urbanization exerts asymmetric impacts on provincial energy use so that energy policies associated with urbanization should be province specific the findings also illustrate that for a panel dataset on regional dimension within large and fast growing economies such as china error cross sectional dependence and residual nonstationarity must be tested and properly treated to avoid size distortion and biased estimators

efficiency in foreign exchange markets a vector autoregression approach abstract this paper examines and tests the simple efficiency property of the forward exchange market by analyzing the linearly indeterministic covariance stationary propertoes of the vector stochastic proceess that governs the joint behavior of the spot exchange rate and forward rates wiht different maturity dates a multivariate autoregressive methodology for testing the simple efficiency hypothesis that relies upon a set of highly non linear cross equation restrictions is utilized the results of the estimation and testing for the british pound and the deutsche mark over the period september 1974 to november 1987 using monthly observation on the spot rate the one month forward rate and the three month forward rates are presented special concern is given to the sensitivity of the tests results to subsampling over the period

revenue management without forecasting or optimization an adaptive algorithm for determining airline seat protection levels we investigate a simple adaptive approach to optimizing seat protection levels in airline revenue management systems the approach uses only historical observations of the relative frequencies of certain seat filling events to guide direct adjustments of the seat protection levels in accordance with the optimality conditions of brumelle and mcgill 1993 stochastic approximation theory is used to prove the convergence of this adaptive algorithm to the optimal protection levels in a simulation study we compare the revenue performance of this adaptive approach to a more traditional method that combines a censored forecasting method with a common seat allocation heuristic emsr b

airline seat allocation with multiple nested fare classes this paper addresses the problem of determining optimal booking policies for multiple fare classes that share the same seating pool on one leg of an airline flight when seats are booked in a nested fashion and when lower fare classes book before higher ones we show that a fixed limit booking policy that maximizes expected revenue can be characterized by a simple set of conditions on the subdifferential of the expected revenue function these conditions are appropriate for either the discrete or continuous demand cases these conditions are further simplified to a set of conditions that relate the probability distributions of demand for the various fare classes to their respective fares the latter conditions are guaranteed to have a solution when the joint probability distribution of demand is continuous characterization of the problem as a series of monotone optimal stopping problems proves optimality of the fixed limit policy over all admissible policies a comparison is made of the optimal solutions

how do industrialization and trade openness influence energy intensity evidence from a path model in case of bangladesh abstract nowadays multifaceted interdependence between macroeconomic variables results in an extended list of factors that have diverse impacts on energy intensity thus sustaining energy intensity at a desired level demands advanced studies to investigate the multifarious influences of its factors and ensure proactive measures to deal with them this paper aims to set up a path model to analyze the direct and indirect impacts of industrialization and trade openness on energy intensity in bangladesh the results corroborate that industrialization has a direct positive influence on energy intensity where trade openness shows a direct negative effect on it and both industrialization and trade openness have negative indirect impact on energy intensity through technological innovation and economic growth respectively in case of individual total impacts only industrialization affects energy intensity positively where trade openness technological innovation and economic growth negatively do based on the empirical results some policy implications regarding energy intensity and effects of its factors on it are also presented

multiple maturities and time varying risk premia in forward exchange markets abstract this paper derives the necessary conditions for an intertemporal optimization problem faced by an international investor who can enter forward contracts of several maturity dates and simultaneously borrow in domestic money markets the model parameters are estimated and the overidentifying restrictions are tested using hansen s proposed gmm technique the restrictions are strongly rejected when forward premia are used as instruments the risk neutral specification is rejected when expenditures on non durables and services are used as the consumption measure possible explanations for these rejections are provided

discrete order admission atp model with joint effect of margin and order size in a mto environment abstract swarming demands and seasonality periodically induce a stringent capacity problem in the made to order mto b2b environment desirable order admission is a tactic with minimal application cost for handling this problem a real time order admission problem with limited major customer population and batch size demand with heterogeneous distributions is modeled as a dynamic and stochastic knapsack problem the optimality of the markovian deterministic reward threshold policy is verified optimal policy basic policy and the capacity rationing method are compared in the designed experiment the numerical results suggest great potential for increasing profit using the optimal order admission policy for mto businesses

the optimal pricing of exports invoiced in different currencies abstract the paper presents a model of optimal pricing of exports invoiced in different currencies integrating export pricing with exchange risk management the model maximizes the present value of an exporter s profits from sales in different currencies in the presence of covered interest arbitrage exchange risk and transactions costs given the corresponding cost minimization by the buyers it turns out that the optimal prices in the different currencies are equal at the spot exchange rate only by chance if all the other conditions for the equality of the prices are satisfied it is optimal to set a lower export price in the currency with the lower interest rate and a higher price in the currency with the higher interest rate in order to induce the buyers to pay in the currency offering the lower interest rate the effects on the optimal prices of factors such as interest rates spot exchange rates the buyers and seller s exchange rate expectations and initial foreign exchange positions as well as demand elasticities are analyzed in detail the paper shows that the observed pass through of exchange rates to prices of less than 100 is consistent with optimality