the welfare loss from unstable inflation abstract the calvo price setting mechanism produces relative price dispersion among firms while the rotemberg model is consistent with a symmetric equilibrium nonetheless both models imply the same welfare costs of inflation and the same prescriptions for welfare maximizing central banks

government spending effects in low income countries abstract despite the voluminous literature on fiscal policy very few papers focus on low income countries lics this paper develops a new keynesian small open economy model to show analytically and numerically that several prevalent features of lics dependence on external financing public investment inefficiency and a low degree of home bias in public investment play important roles in government spending effects external financing increases the resource envelope mitigating the crowding out effects but it tends to appreciate the real exchange rate lowering traded output although capital scarcity in lics implies high returns to public capital low marginal investment efficiency can substantially dampen the output multiplier also public investment may not be effective in stimulating output in the short run as lics often rely on imports to a large extent to carry out public investment projects weakening its role as a short run demand stimulus

a behavioral framework for time diversification the box of factors that we call risk is both too large and too small the box is large enough to include many sometimes conflicting measures of risk variance and semivariance probabilities of losses and their amounts but the box is too small to include factors that affect choices but fall outside the boundaries of risk frames and cognitive errors self control and regret we explore the role of these factors in time diversification the belief that time diversification reduces risk underlies the current drive to invest social security funds in stocks but is such investment prudent we discuss the role of advisors in providing prudent advice changes in the standards of prudence over time the use of time diversification in guiding investors to prudent portfolios and its use in the current debate on social security

linear quadratic approximation external habit and targeting rules abstract we examine the linear quadratic approximation of nonlinear dynamic stochastic optimization problems a discrete time version of magill 1977a a local analysis of n sector capital accumulation under uncertainty journal of economic theory 15 2 211 219 is generalized to models with forward looking variables paying special attention to second order conditions this is the large distortions case in the literature we apply the approach to monetary policy in a dsge model with external habit in consumption we then develop a condition for target implementability a concept related to targeting rules finally we extend the approach to a comparison between cooperative and non cooperative equilibria in a two country model and show that the small distortions approximation is inappropriate for this exercise

the inexorable and mysterious tradeoff between inflation and unemployment this paper discusses the short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment although this tradeoff remains a necessary building block of business cycle theory economists have yet to provide a completely satisfactory explanation for it according to the consensus view among central bankers and monetary economists a contractionary monetary shock raises unemployment at least temporarily and leads to a delayed and gradual fall in inflation standard dynamic models of price adjustment however cannot explain this pattern of responses reconciling the consensus view about the effects of monetary policy with models of price adjustment remains an outstanding puzzle for business cycle theorists several years ago i gave myself a peculiar assignment i decided to try to summarise all of economics in ten simply stated principles the purpose of this task was to introduce students to the economic way of thinking in the first chapter of my textbook principles of economics i figured if god could boil all of moral philosophy down to ten commandments i should be able to do much the same with economic science most of the ten principles i chose were microeconomic and hard to argue with they involved the importance of tradeoffs marginal analysis the benefits of trade market efficiency market failure and so on i allocated the last three principles to macroeconomics the first of these was a country s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services which i viewed as the foundation of all growth theory the second was prices rise when the government prints too much money which i took to be the essence of classical monetary theory the last of my ten principles is the subject of today s lecture society faces a short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment perhaps not surprisingly this statement turned out to be controversial when my publisher sent out the manuscript for review a few readers objected

inflation and welfare in a monetary economy it is in everyone s private interest to try to get someone else to hold non interest bearing cash and reserves but someone has to hold it all so these efforts must simply cancel out all of us spend several hours per year in this effort and employ thousands of talented and highly trained people to help us these person hours are simply thrown away wasted on a task that should not have to be performed at all

subsidy and tuition policies in public higher education i introduction the much discussed and widely debated recent conditions in public higher education include expanding enrollments flat if not declining public appropriations per resident student and rapid increases in tuition rates 1 to many observers tuition policy in public higher education appears be explained as an attempt to set tuition at whatever level is necessary to compensate for shortfalls between public appropriations and instructional expenditures ehrenberg 2006 asserts that public higher education has been buffeted by a perfect storm in which state appropriations to public higher education institutions have failed to keep pace with per student expenditures in private higher education because of economic recession the priorities placed on alternative uses of state tax revenues such as elementary and secondary education medicaid welfare and criminal justice and efforts to reduce income and sales tax rates a considerable empirical literature examines the relationship between tuition in public higher education and state appropriations koshal and koshal 2000 identify a negative relationship between tuition and state appropriation a study of college costs and prices which is conducted by cunningham et al 2001 identifies an inverse association between tuition rates and annual budget appropriations but finds little evidence of a link between tuition and expenditures on instruction lowry 2001 treats state appropriations as exogenous in a resident tuition equation and discovers a significant negative relationship between state funding and tuition rizzo 2005 finds that increases in tuition are linked to declines in future levels of state funding which hints at a dynamic association rizzo and ehrenberg 2004 in one of the more extensive examination of the topic treat real state appropriations per student as an exogenous variable in their resident tuition equation and find that schools that receive higher state appropriations per student charge lower tuition though the elasticity is far from unity acknowledging the economic and demographic conditions of public higher education and the empirical literature linking appropriations and tuition raises a number of questions what activities are legislatures supporting when they allocate public funds to higher education what are the implied responsibilities for subsidizing residents versus nonresidents how are resident and nonresident tuition rates determined and what are the relationships among tuition rates resident and nonresident enrollments and state appropriations to higher education in particular there appears to be the need to develop a better understanding of the decision processes that determine both the public subsidy and the setting of tuition rates a goal of this article is to develop a conceptual framework for that process there is a widely held notion that residents should pay a lower tuition than nonresidents and as a result of a resident subsidy they do so in nearly all public universities one rationale for favorable treatment is that residents and their parents pay state taxes another claim which receives some support by groen 2004 is that residents are likely to remain in the state after graduation and thus contribute future tax revenues although the public subsidy to higher education is justified for these and many other economic development reasons some argue that the higher education subsidy is simply a payoff to special interest groups who influence legislatures and governors friedman 1968 and goldin and katz 1998 provide a general discussion of the objectives of subsidized higher education for whatever reasons resident students continue to receive a substantial publicfinanced subsidy while nonresidents pay close to full cost there are two basic arrangements for determining tuition rates in higher education 1 institutions determine tuition rates under the direction of an independent governing board and 2 state legislatures who are governed by statues and budget policies make tuition decisions

empirical estimates of inflation tax laffer surfaces a 30 country study abstract long run or steady state inflation tax laffer surfaces are estimated with annual data over the 1960s through early 1990s for a varied group of 30 countries using the cagan semi elastic demand for currency and for deposits the model includes an explicit role for the reserve ratio variations in which are shown to be important in explaining inflation tax revenue statistically countries inflation and reserve ratio management are examined in terms of where they operated with respect to steady state laffer boundaries defined as the locus of instruments inflation and reserve ratio that maximize the inflation tax analysis is performed both in terms of sample means of the instruments and their annual values each approach requiring a different conceptual framework few countries operated frequently on the wrong side of the laffer surface

log linear approximation versus an exact solution at the zlb in the new keynesian model abstract how accurate is a log linear approximation of the new keynesian model when the nominal interest rate is bounded by zero this paper compares the solution of the exact non linear model to the log linear approximation it finds that the difference is modest for a common economic scenario this applies even for extreme events in numerical experiments that replicate the u s great depression the exact non linear model makes the same predictions as the log linear approximation for key policy questions such as the size and sign of government spending and tax multipliers it also replicates well known paradoxes like the paradox of toil and the paradox of price flexibility the paper also reconciles different findings reported in the literature using calvo versus rotemberg pricing

new keynesian phillips curve with bertrand competition and endogenous entry abstract we derive a new keynesian phillips curve under calvo staggered pricing and endogenous market structures with bertrand competition both strategic interactions and endogenous business creation strengthen the nominal rigidities price adjusters change their prices less when there are more direct competitors that do not adjust which reduces the slope of the phillips curve current and future firms entering in the markets decrease current inflation because they reduce markups and the welfare based price index endogenous entry amplifies the impact of both monetary and supply shocks we also characterize the optimal social planner allocation that can be replicated with a labor subsidy and a dividend tax both decreasing in the number of firms and zero producer price inflation the optimal ramsey allocation implies zero inflation tax in steady state

firm entry markups and the monetary transmission mechanism abstract two business cycle models with endogenous firm and product entry are estimated by matching impulse responses to a monetary policy shock the competition effect implies that entry lowers desired markups and dampens inflation under translog preferences where the substitutability between goods depends on their number we find evidence of such an effect that model generates more countercyclical markups than dixit and stiglitz 1977 monopolistic competition model where price stickiness is the only source of markup fluctuations in contrast a model with strategic interactions between oligopolistic firms cannot generate an empirically relevant competition effect and is statistically equivalent to the dixit stiglitz model

the optimum quantity of money rule in the theory of public finance this paper examines optimal tax policy in a monetary economy in which money serves as an intermediate good that helps facilitate the conversion of scarce resources into tinal consumption goods by enabling consumers to economize on the costs of transacting it is shown that in such an environment even though distorting taxes must be levied for revenue purposes the optimal tax structure calls for abstaining from inflationary finance and adopting the optimum quantity of money rule

real wage rigidities and the cost of disinflations this paper analyzes the cost of disinflations under real wage rigidities in a micro founded new keynesian model the conventional view is that real wage rigidities can be a useful mechanism to generate a slump in output after a credible disinflationary policy because they prevent the immediate adjustment of inflation this view is flawed since it depends on analyzing the model in a linearized framework once nonlinearities are taken into account the results change both qualitatively and quantitatively disinflations actually lead to a permanently higher level of output and real wage rigidities increase the output during the adjustment to the new steady state

investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes under inflation targeting estimates of the indexation parameter in hybrid new keynesian phillips curves are either equal to zero or very low in the united kingdom canada sweden and new zealand analogous results hold for the euro area under the european monetary union and for switzerland under the new monetary regime under stable regimes with clearly defined nominal anchors inflation appears to be purely forward looking these results question the notion that the intrinsic inflation persistence found in post wwii u s data is structural in the sense of lucas carnegie rochester conference series on public policy 1 1976 19 46 and suggest that hardwiring inflation persistence in macroeconomic models is potentially misleading

liquidity traps and expectation dynamics fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity we examine global dynamics under infinite horizon learning in new keynesian models where the interest rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound as in evans guse and honkapohja 2008 the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable unstable deflationary paths emerge after large pessimistic shocks to expectations for large expectation shocks that push interest rates to the zero bound a temporary fiscal stimulus or a policy of fiscal austerity appropriately tailored in magnitude and duration will insulate the economy from deflation traps however fiscal switching rules that automatically kick in without discretionary fine tuning can be equally effective

the propagation of uncertainty shocks rotemberg versus calvo this article studies the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity focusing on inflation using a vector autoregression i show that increased uncertainty has negative demand effects reducing gdp and prices i then consider standard new keynesian models with rotemberg type and calvo type price rigidities despite the belief that the two schemes are equivalent i show that they generate different dynamics in response to uncertainty shocks in the rotemberg model uncertainty shocks decrease output and inflation in line with the empirical results by contrast in the calvo model uncertainty shocks decrease output but raise inflation because of firms precautionary pricing motive

optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules welfare maximizing monetary and fiscal policy rules are studied in a model with sticky prices money and distortionary taxation the ramsey optimal policy is used as a point of comparison the main findings are the size of the inflation coefficient in the interest rate rule plays a minor role for welfare it matters only insofar as it affects the determinacy of equilibrium optimal monetary policy features a muted response to output interest rate rules that feature a positive response to output can lead to significant welfare losses the welfare gains from interest rate smoothing are negligible optimal fiscal policy is passive the optimal monetary and fiscal rule combination attains virtually the same level of welfare as the ramsey optimal policy

revisiting the matching function abstract there is strong empirical evidence for cobb douglas matching functions we show in this paper that this widely found relation between matches on the one hand and unemployment and vacancies on the other hand can be the result of different underlying mechanisms obviously it can be generated by assuming a cobb douglas matching function less obvious the same relationship results from a vacancy free entry condition and idiosyncratic productivity shocks a positive aggregate productivity shock leads to more vacancy posting a shift of the idiosyncratic selection cutoff and thereby more hiring we calibrate a model with both mechanisms to administrative german labor market data and show that idiosyncratic productivity for new contacts is an important driver of the elasticity of the job finding rate with respect to the market tightness accounting for idiosyncratic productivity can explain the observed negative time trend in estimated matching efficiency and asymmetric business cycle responses to large aggregate shocks

inflation employment and welfare in the presence of transactions costs for some time now two issues of primary importance in macroeconomics and monetary theory have been the relation between inflation and unemployment the phillips curve and the optimum rate of inflation the optimum quantity of money in both of these areas the work of friedman and phelps has been influential friedman 1968 and phelps 1970 emphasized the role of inflationary expectations in generating a short run phillips curve like tradeoff but argued that in the long run the phillips curve is vertical that is friedman and phelps claimed that in the long run defined as the time period within which expectations fully adjust to actual circumstances inflation and employment should be uncorrelated more recently friedman 1977 has argued that since the rate of inflation and its variability tend to be positively related inflation and employment may be negatively related in the long run this is the positively sloped phillips curve phenomenon in recent years the link between inflation and employment has continued to receive considerable attention the vast rational expectations literature on the role of monetary policy and the equilibrium approach to the business cycle are in large part an outgrowth of the earlier phillips curve controversy the notion that there is an inverse long run relation between inflation and employment has recently received theoretical support from barro and santomero 1976 stockman 1981 and aschauer and greenwood 1983 related studies concerning the real effects of inflation have been undertaken by jovanovic 1982 stockman 1984 and abel 1985 the common element running through all of these papers is that the real effects of inflation arise from the transactions technology that underlies money demand l

changes in the federal reserve s inflation target causes and consequences this paper estimates a new keynesian model to draw inferences about the behavior of the federal reserve s unobserved inflation target the results indicate that the target rose from 1 1 4 percent in 1959 to over 8 percent in the mid to late 1970s before falling back below 2 1 2 percent in 2004 the results also provide some support for the hypothesis that over the entire postwar period federal reserve policy has systematically translated short run price pressures set off by supply side shocks into more persistent movements in inflation itself although considerable uncertainty remains about the true source of shifts in the inflation target jel e31 e32 e52

put prices and pen participation rates at longer horizons is equity risk in the eye of the beholder two recent articles in the financial analysts journal address the question of how equity risk changes as investment horizons grow longer both use analyses based on derivatives pricing examples but draw exactly opposite conclusions we reexamine these authors arguments and find the logic of both analyses is flawed we demonstrate that the use of specialized put option prices as proxies for equity risk yields ambiguous conclusions about equity risk changes at longer investment horizons with added information about an investor s required minimum rate of return however we can specify the change in equity risk at longer horizons with these put prices

real wage rigidities and disinflation dynamics calvo vs rotemberg pricing abstract calvo pricing implies output gains while rotemberg pricing implies output losses after a disinflation introducing real wage rigidities has opposite effects it generates a long lasting boom in output in calvo and a moderate output slump in rotemberg

the imperfect common knowledge phillips curve calvo vs rotemberg i derive the imperfect common knowledge phillips curve under the assumption of rotemberg pricing the curve differs from the calvo version in one important aspect expectations of future relative prices impact inflation

trend inflation and firms price setting rotemberg versus calvo we compare the calvo and rotemberg price setting mechanisms in a new keynesian model with trend inflation we show that the long run relationship between inflation and output is positive in rotemberg and negative in calvo the dynamics of the two models differ even to a first order approximation positive trend inflation enlarges the determinacy region in the rotemberg model whereas it shrinks it in the calvo model the responses of output and inflation to technology shocks are amplified by trend inflation in calvo whereas they are dampened in rotemberg the two models imply differing non linear adjustments after a disinflation

optimal monetary policy with relative price distortions this paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model with calvo type staggered price setting in the paper the optimal monetary policy maximizes the expected utility of a representative household without having to rely on a set of linearly approximated equilibrium conditions given the distortions associated with the staggered price setting it shows that the complete stabilization of the price level is optimal in the absence of initial price dispersion while optimal inflation targets respond to changes in the level of relative price distortion in the presence of initial price dispersion

new keynesian economics and the phillips curve models with sticky prices are an important part of new keynesian economics the author shows that several of the new keynesian models imply a formulation that is similar to the expectations augmented phillips curve of milton friedman and edmund phelps he then presents new estimates of the new keynesian phillips curve the author uses two proxies for price expectations survey based measures and an econometric based measure originally developed by bennett mccallum 1976 overall the results are consistent with the model but the survey based results are more precise suggesting that the surveys may be better measures of actual expectations copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

state dependent fiscal multipliers calvo vs rotemberg abstract this paper studies the properties of the fiscal multiplier in both the calvo 1983 and rotemberg 1982 variants of the new keynesian model though identical to first order the two variants of the model are not the same globally or to higher order we solve both versions of the model using a third order approximation and compute the distributions of fiscal multipliers by drawing from the ergodic distributions of states the multiplier is significantly more variable across states in the rotemberg model these differences are magnified when the nominal interest rate is pegged instead of governed by an active taylor rule

the taylor rule and optimal monetary policy where it denotes the fed s operating target for the federal funds rate pt is the inflation rate measured by the gdp deflator yt is the log of real gdp and y t is the log of potential output identified empirically with a linear trend the rule has since been subject to considerable attention both as an account of actual policy in the united states and elsewhere and as a prescription for desirable policy taylor argues for the rule s normative significance both on the basis of simulations and on the ground that it describes u s policy in a period in which monetary policy is widely judged to have been unusually successful taylor 1999 suggesting that the rule is worth adopting as a principle of behavior here i wish to consider to what extent this prescription resembles the sort of policy that economic theory would recommend i consider the question in the context of a simple but widely used optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism which allows one to reach clear conclusions about economic welfare the model is highly stylized but incorporates important features of more realistic models and allows me to make several points that are of more general validity out of concern for the robustness of the conclusions reached the analysis here addresses only broad qualitative features of the taylor rule and attempts to identify features of a desirable policy rule that are likely to hold under a variety of model specifications

the inflation bias under calvo and rotemberg pricing new keynesian models rely heavily on two workhorse models of nominal inertia price contracts of random duration calvo 1983 and price adjustment costs rotemberg 1982 to generate a meaningful role for monetary policy these alternative descriptions of price stickiness are often used interchangeably since to a rst order of approximation they imply an isomorhpic phillips curve and if the steady state is ecient identical objectives for the policy maker and as a result in an lq framework the same policy conclusions

revenue maximizing inflation abstract a classic monetary policy result is that revenue maximization entails setting the inflation tax rate equal to the inverse of the interest semi elasticity of the demand for money the standard approach underlying cagan s rule is partial equilibrium in nature treating money demand as being given from outside the model and abstracting from the real effects of inflation this paper reconsiders the question of the revenue maximizing inflation rate in a general equilibrium framework with a labor leisure choice where money is held because it reduces transactions costs in this framework the revenue maximizing inflation tax rate is lower than that implied by cagan s rule

the strategic choice of managerial incentives do firms with separate owners and managers maximize profits we address this question for an oligopoly where managers compete in quantities or prices as in the cournot or bertrand models and owners choose their managers incentives we find that there is a strategic aspect in the problem of selecting incentives and that profit maximizing behavior does not result in particular in the oligopoly we study the behavior of firms competing in quantity price more closely resembles perfectly competitive collusive behavior than cournot bertrand behavior

the macroeconomic effects of nonzero trend inflation we study the macroeconomic effects of nonzero trend inflation in a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model under three common time dependent pricing schemes calvo truncated calvo and taylor we show that regardless of the pricing mechanism trend inflation leads to a reduction in the stochastic means of output consumption and employment and an increase in the stochastic mean of inflation beyond its deterministic steady state level the variability of most aggregates also increases these effects are quantitatively much stronger with calvo pricing

disinflation inequality and welfare in a tank model we investigate the redistributive and welfare effects of disinflation in a two agent new keynesian tank model characterized by limited asset market participation lamp and wealth inequality we highlight two key mechanisms driving our long run results i the cash in advance constraint on firms working capital cia ii dividends endogeneity these two channels point in opposite directions lower inflation softens the cia and by raising labor demand lowers inequality but the disinflation also raises dividends and this increases inequality the disinflation is always welfare improving for asset holders we obtain ambiguous results for non asset holders who suffer substantial consumption losses during the transition

an economic theory of vertical restraints vertical restraints imposed by manufacturers on the prices locations and sales of retail firms represent a puzzling departure from the simple price mediated exchange of conventional markets in this article we analyze the theoretical basis for these restraints in a setting where retailers inform consumers and are imperfectly competitive and where a manufacturer has some monopoly power we identify three potential externalities affecting retailers decisions these externalities lead to the failure of simple uniform price contracts to coordinate the incentives of retailers with the objective of maximizing combined manufacturer and retailer profits we identify the packages of vertical restraints that are minimally sufficient under various conditions to neutralize the externalities and to achieve the joint profit maximum

welfare implications of calvo vs rotemberg pricing assumptions abstract this paper compares the welfare implications of two widely used pricing assumptions in the new keynesian literature calvo pricing vs rotemberg pricing we show that despite the strong similarities between the two assumptions to a first order of approximation in general they might entail different welfare costs at higher order of approximation

trend inflation indexation and inflation persistence in the new keynesian phillips curve purely forward looking versions of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc generate too little inflation persistence some authors add ad hoc backward looking terms to address this shortcoming we hypothesize that inflation per sistence results mainly from variation in the long run trend component of inflation which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy we derive a version of the nkpc that incorporates a time varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflation when drift in trend inflation is taken into account a purely forward looking version of the model fits the data well and there is no need for backward looking components jel e12 e31 e52 in this paper we consider the extent to which guillermo calvo s 1983 model of nominal price rigidities can explain inflation dynamics without relying on arbitrary backward looking terms in its baseline formulation the calvo model leads to a purely forward looking new keynesian

relative price distortions and inflation persistence sticky price models often suggest that relative price distortion is a major cost of inflation we provide an intuition for this even at low rates inflation strongly affects price dispersion which in turn has an impact on the economy qualitatively similar to and of the order of magnitude of a negative shift in productivity the utility cost of price dispersion is quantified and its impact on optimal monetary policy discussed price dispersion is incorporated into a linearised model strikingly a contractionary nominal shock has a persistent negative hump shaped impact on inflation but may have a positive hump shaped impact on output

in state versus out of state students the divergence of interest between public universities and state governments abstract this paper examines the divergence of interest between universities and state governments concerning standards for admitting in state versus out of state students we find that public universities set lower minimum admission standards for in state than out of state applicants presumably in response to state pressure while private universities treat both groups equally however we also find that favoring in state applicants goes against states long term financial interest this is because marginal out of state students pay higher tuition than marginal in state students pay more in future state taxes and are equally influenced in whether they locate in the state after graduation by attending public university there

banks leverage behaviour in a two agent new keynesian model abstract we study the distributive effects of a negative shock to banks assets in a saver capitalist model we analyze how this kind of heterogeneity affects macroeconomic variables and the distribution between savers and capitalists through banks leverage procyclicality the distributive effects are non favourable to savers and long lasting lower risk aversion of capitalists strengthens and lengthens the procyclicality of leverage leading to a lower decrease of savers income and consumption whilst stricter regulatory requirements are favourable to savers a tougher inflation targeting is unfavourable to savers the model is robust to the combined introduction of labour market frictions and hysteresis which together generate an amplification and lengthening of the recessionary and distributive effects unfavourable to savers

the macroeconomics of trend inflation most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero inflation steady state but most central banks target an inflation rate of about 2 percent many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy in this survey we show that the conduct of monetary policy should be analyzed by appropriately accounting for the positive trend inflation targeted by policymakers we first review empirical research on the evolution and dynamics of u s trend inflation and some proposed new measures to assess the volatility and persistence of trend based inflation gaps we then construct a generalized new keynesian model that accounts for a positive trend inflation in this model an increase in trend inflation is associated with a more volatile and unstable economy and tends to destabilize inflation expectations this analysis offers a note of caution regarding recent proposals to address the existing zero lower bound problem by raising the long run inflation target jel e12 e31 e32 e52 e58

why inflation rose and fell policy makers beliefs and u s postwar stabilization policy this paper provides an explanation for the run up of u s inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation in the early 1980s which standard macroeconomic models have difficulties in addressing i present a model in which rational policymakers learn about the behavior of the economy in real time and set stabilization policy optimally conditional on their current beliefs the steady state associated with the self confirming equilibrium of the model is characterized by low inflation however prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the phillips curve i estimate the model using likelihood methods the estimation results show that the model accounts remarkably well for the evolution of policymakers beliefs stabilization policy and the postwar behavior of inflation and unemployment in the united states

optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices this paper studies optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky product prices the theoretical framework is a stochastic production economy without capital the government finances an exogenous stream of purchases by levying distortionary income taxes printing money and issuing one period nominally risk free bonds the main findings of the paper are first for a miniscule degree of price stickiness i e many times below available empirical estimates the optimal volatility of inflation is near zero this result stands in stark contrast with the high volatility of inflation implied by the ramsey allocation when prices are flexible the finding is in line with a recent body of work on optimal monetary policy under nominal rigidities that ignores the role of optimal fiscal policy second even small deviations from full price flexibility induce near random walk behavior in government debt and tax rates third sluggish price adjustment raises the average nominal interest rate above the one called for by the friedman rule finally an interest rate feedback rule whereby the nominal interest rate depends on inflation and output fits well the data emanating from the ramsey economy however the fitted rule is not of the taylor type for the implied inflation coefficient is less than one and close to zero and the output coefficient is negative jel classification e52 e61 e63

on inflation and output with costly price changes a simple unifying result this paper determines the real effects of credible disinflation when price setting is staggered the results are surprising a fairly quick disinflation causes a boom this finding suggests that nominal price rigidity alone does not explain why disinflation is costly in actual economies this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

monetary conservatism and fiscal policy abstract does an inflation conservative central bank a la rogoff 1985 remain desirable in a setting with endogenous fiscal policy to provide an answer we study monetary and fiscal policy games without commitment in a dynamic stochastic sticky price economy with monopolistic distortions monetary policy determines nominal interest rates and fiscal policy provides public goods generating private utility we find that lack of fiscal commitment gives rise to excessive public spending the optimal inflation rate internalizing this distortion is positive but lack of monetary commitment generates too much inflation a conservative monetary authority thus remains desirable when fiscal policy is determined before monetary policy each period the monetary authority should focus exclusively on stabilizing inflation monetary conservatism then eliminates the steady state biases associated with lack of monetary and fiscal commitment and leads to stabilization policy that is close to optimal

second order approximation to the rotemberg model around a distorted steady state social welfare objectives are investigated when changing prices is costly rotemberg 1982 a quadratic welfare function is derived with a distorted steady state implying inflation and output stabilization goals economic distortions influence inflation aversion in a way that differs from calvo models

the international transmission of volatility shocks an empirical analysis this paper proposes an empirical model which can be used to estimate the international transmission of volatility shocks using this model we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the volatility of the shock to us real gdp leads to a decline in uk gdp of 1 relative to trend and a 0 7 increase in uk cpi relative to trend at the two year horizon using a nonlinear open economy dsge model we find that these empirical estimates are consistent with the response to a perturbation to the volatility of foreign supply type shocks while an increase in the volatility of demand shocks has a negligible impact

reserve requirements and the inflation tax the inflation tax on currency and required bank reserves is modeled in a general equilibrium setting by specifying a transactions technology in which currency and demand deposits allow agents to economize on time spent transacting in the goods market revenue maximizing conditions for the nominal interest rate and reserve ratio are analyzed for any given revenue requirement less than the revenue maximizing level minimization of the welfare costs of inflationary finance results in the choice of a combination of the interest rate and reserve ratio that lies on a set of tangency points formed by iso revenue and iso welfare curves copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

a pedagogical treatment of bilateral monopoly most economists are familiar with the concept of bilateral monopoly an upstream monopolist sells its output to a single downstream buyer that may also be a monopolist in its output market the theory of bilateral monopoly has a rich history that can be traced to the writings of cournot 10 and menger 31 over the 150 or so years that the problem has been under consideration however economists have offered a variety of solutions ranging from a completely determinate intermediate good price and output to a completely indeterminate solution within a specified range interestingly this historical divergence of opinion concerning the correct outcome under bilateral monopoly still persists a clear consensus has not yet emerged surprisingly this lack of unanimity exists despite the fact that bowley 5 provided the theoretically correct solution in 1928 2 even more surprising however is the apparent popularity of the incorrect solution a recent survey of the population of intermediate microeconomic texts on the authors bookshelves revealed that over 80 percent of the current treatments of this topic are in error 3 table i presents the results of that survey those authors who present a correct analysis of bilateral monopoly recognize that optimality requires joint profit maximization this leads them to the correct conclusion regarding the determinate quantity of the intermediate product exchanged of the five treatments we have classified

shocks and government beliefs the rise and fall of american inflation working paper 2004 22 september 2004 abstract the authors use a bayesian markov chain monte carlo algorithm to estimate a model that allows temporary gaps between a true expectational phillips curve and the monetary authority s approximating nonexpectational phillips curve a dynamic programming problem implies that the monetary authority s inflation target evolves as its estimated phillips curve moves the authors estimates attribute the rise and fall of post world war ii inflation in the united states to an intricate interaction between the monetary authority s beliefs and economic shocks shocks in the 1970s altered the monetary authority s estimates and made it misperceive the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment that misperception caused sharp rise in inflation in the 1970s the authors estimates indicate that policy makers updated their beliefs continuously by the 1980s policy makers beliefs about the phillips curve had changed enough to account for fed chairman paul volcker s conquest of u s inflation in the early 1980s jel classification e3 e5 key words updating beliefs policy evaluation self confirming equilibrium nash inflation ramsey outcomes i introduction today many statesmen and macroeconomists believe that inflation can largely be determined by a government monetary authority then why did the federal reserve board preside over high us inflation during the late 1960s and the 1970s and why under paul volcker did it rapidly bring inflation down during the early 1980s this paper answers these questions by estimating a model that features a particular process that makes a procession of economic shocks induce the monetary authority to alter its model of inflation unemployment dynamics the phillips curve at each date t the monetary authority updates its beliefs about the phillips curve and then recomputes a first period action recommended by a phelps problem a discounted dynamic programming problem that minimizes the expected value of a discounted quadratic loss function of inflation and unemployment 1 the monetary authority pursues the same objectives at each date using the same structural model with only its estimates of that model changing over time 2 this model of the systematic part of inflation puts the monetary authority s beliefs about the phillips curve front and center 3 we assume that the monetary authority s model of the phillips curve deviates in two subtle but important ways from what it would be in a rational expectations model e g kydland and prescott 1977 the first deviation is that while the true phillips curve is like kydland and prescott s we assume that the monetary authority omits the public s expected rate of inflation from its phillips curve by itself this omission need not prevent the outcomes of our model from coinciding with those of kydland and prescott s nor need it imply that the government s model is wrong in a way that could be detected from even an infinite sample whether the monetary authority s model is wrong in a statistically detectable way depends on how we allow the monetary authority to reestimate the parameters of its model in particular if the monetary authority were to believe that the coefficients of its phillips curve are constant over time then its estimates would converge to ones that support a self confirming equilibrium sce after convergence its estimated phillips curve would correctly describe occurrences along the sce path for inflation and unemployment such an after convergence version of our model has little hope of explaining the rise and fall of us inflation that model would have inflation fluctuating randomly around a constant sce level that coincides with kydland and prescott s time consistent suboptimal i e excessive level 4 this outcome motivates our second subtle deviation from a rational expectations equilibrium