the dynamics of individuals fat consumption consumers are increasingly aware of the link between their lifestyle choices and the risk of noncommunicable diseases a dynamic approach incorporating this linkage in food demand is developed where consumers maximize utility over time by choosing fat intake to control their cumulative fat level the resulting dynamic indirect utility function and household data on meat fish and dairy consumption are used to estimate a censored demand system results show that consumers consciously adjust but not instantaneously their cumulative fat level highly educated households have a faster rate of adjustment of cumulative fat when cumulative fat level increases consumers shift to dairy or white meat from red meat products

women s access to credit does it matter for household efficiency studies that assess the impact of credit constraints on farm households efficiency have largely used the household as the unit of analysis this can be problematic when there are gender based market imperfections and asymmetries in how rights resources and responsibilities are distributed within the household constraints on women matter in addition to the efficiency loss associated with the husbands credit constraints when women are unable to meet their needs for capital their households experienced an additional 11 drop in efficiency this suggests that there are efficiency based arguments for enhancing women s access to capital and that studies based only on the household s head may significantly underestimate the true economic impact of credit constraints copyright 2008 oxford university press

consumer knowledge food label use and grain consumption in the us responding to mounting evidence of the association between whole grain consumption and a reduced risk of heart problems and other diseases as well as an increased probability of body weight maintenance the us government has strongly encouraged its citizens to increase consumption of whole grains however compared against the 2005 federal dietary recommendations in 1994 1996 only 6 of americans met the current recommended whole grain consumption to narrow this huge gap between actual and recommended consumption of whole grains considerable changes in consumer behaviour will be needed a demand system with two censored consumption equations and endogenous food label use and nutrition knowledge variables is estimated to investigate the factors that affect the consumption of whole and refined grains food label use and nutrition knowledge are found to play important roles in the consumption of refined and whole grain products as are sociodemographic variables the results can be used to help develop

measuring the value of life saving from consumer reactions to new information abstract past studies have relied on cross section patterns of risky behavior to generate estimates of the value of life saving this approach is colored by several problems that affect the reliability of the results in potentially serious ways it is difficult to separate the risk components from the dis utility attributes of work or consumption to avoid selectivity biases and to disentangle user costs e g wearing a face mask from the risk premium paid for accepting risk to circumvent some of these difficulties this paper uses a different approach one which exploits the information about the value of risk reduction that is provided by changing consumption patterns over time brought about by changes in available information about risks this approach makes it possible to more reliably estimate the pure effects of risks on behavior and to generate unbiased distributions of the value of life saving the case of cigarette consumption over time provides an ideal setting to illustrate this methodology

modelling the relationship between future energy intraday volatility and trading volume with wavelet abstractalthough the energy and stock markets are both characterized by volatility and liquidity and there has been substantial research to explore the relationship between volatility and trading volume tv in stock markets few researchers have investigated this relationship in energy markets moreover studies that have explored this association within energy markets did not describe its nature or impetus to redress this oversight we investigate this relationship using intraday data from the oil and gas markets the most liquid energy markets in the world in this way the current article extends the previous studies through the use of a frequency approach to propose an original analysis of the relationship between volume and volatility more specifically we employ a continuous wavelet transform to identify the lead lag phase between volatility and volume this framework supplants usual time series modelling as it uses a measure of coherence for different frequencies and time scales to capture fu

flexible demand systems with serially correlated errors fat and oil consumption in the united states a flexible demand system proposed by lewbel is used to estimate u s fat and oil demand from 1950 to 1986 results suggest that the lewbel model outperforms the translog and aids and that correction for serial correlation is important findings also suggest that price and income effects together with increasing public health concerns primarily determine u s fat and oil demand

a probit latent variable model of nutrition information and dietary fiber intake nutrition information and intake data for a sample of u s household meal planners are used to estimate the effects of fiber specific information on dietary fiber intake the information variables are measured using survey questions on fiber content of foods attitude toward consuming fiber rich foods and awareness of fiber health links the evidence confirms the influence of nutrition information on fiber intake household income meal planner age smoking status vegetarian status race and ethnicity are major determinants of both information and intake education exerts a sizable intake effect by enhancing the information level direct and indirect effects of exogenous variables are reported

effect of government quality grade labels on consumer demand for pork chops in the short and long run abstract despite ample evidence of pork quality variability at present there are few signals that would incentivize growers to produce higher quality pork using split sample choice experiment data from a nationwide online survey of u s pork chop eaters this research determines changes in pork chop demand in response to a potential change in u s government policy that would introduce a new pork quality grading system based on color scores our simulations include novel short run projections in which the conditional and latent class logit models are inverted to yield inverse demand curves the inverse demand curves are used to calculate equilibrium prices and pork revenue given a fixed supply of different pork qualities we supplement these calculations with a more traditional long run analysis in which prices are fixed and quantities of different qualities adjust compared to the status quo control of no quality grades we find that two grading systems based on alternative nomenclatures select choice prime vs good better best both have the potential to increase pork chop sales and revenue to the pork industry however we also find that if only the highest quality is labeled revenue could fall as the increase in demand for the higher quality is offset by the fall in demand for the lower qualities results also highlight important heterogeneity in consumer preferences and although sensory studies strongly suggest redder pork chops are more highly preferred there remains a non trivial share of consumers who prefer whiter pork even after quality grade labeling overall this study offers several insights that can help inform labeling and quality grading policies

trading volume maturity and natural gas futures price volatility important characteristics of the natural gas spot and futures markets are discussed the relationship between the variance of price change or volatility of the natural gas futures price and maturity of the futures contract and the volume of trading in the futures contact is also discussed and estimated it is found that the volume of trade rather than maturity explains the variance of the volatility it is also discovered that past levels of volume of trade influence current variability of price volatility but that past variability of price volatility has much less of an influence on current levels of trading

estate and gift taxes and incentives for inter vivos giving in the us abstract this paper describes the current estate and gift tax rules that apply to intergenerational transfers in the us it summarizes the incentives for inter vivos giving gifts from a donor to a recipient while the donor is alive as a strategy for reducing estate tax liability it shows that the current level of intergenerational transfers is much lower than the level that would be implied by simple models of dynastic utility maximization moreover even among elderly households with net worth in excess of 2 5 million roughly four times the net worth at which us households became liable for estate tax in 1995 only about 45 take advantage of the opportunity for tax free inter vivos giving cross sectional regressions using the 1995 survey of consumer finances suggest that transfers rise with household net worth possibly reflecting the impact of progressive estate taxes households with a preponderance of their net worth in illiquid forms such as a private business are less likely to make transfers than their equally wealthy counterparts with more liquid wealth those with substantial unrealized capital gains for whom the benefits of basis step up at death under the income tax are greatest are less likely to make large inter vivos transfers than similarly wealthy households with higher basis assets

information health risk beliefs and the demand for fats and oils mean and variance measures of health information about cholesterol and saturated fat are included in a demand system for fats and oils a bayesian model of health risk belief and consumer awareness surveys are the basis for computing these measures the empirical demand model shows that health information has resulted in significant increases in consumption for corn cottonseed and soybean oils and decreased consumption for butter and lard the predicted demand effects based on the bayesian information model are more reasonable than predictions from using either a time trend or a simple cumulative cholesterol information index copyright 1995 by mit press

spatial patterns in local taxation tax mimicking or error mimicking this paper tests for mimicry in local tax setting by using a panel data set of the english non metropolitan districts in the 1980s when property tax rate variability across districts was highest the results confirm the presence of large and significant spatial interactions among districts even after allowing for district specific and time effects a district appears to be significantly affected by its neighbours policies a 10 increase in the local property tax rate of a district s neighbours leads to an increase of 4 5 in its own property tax rate on the other hand the absence of correlation in tax rates between lower tier district authorities and upper tier county authorities suggests that the spatial pattern in district tax rates is not simply driven by spatially auto correlated shocks

tax structure in a federation abstract does national taxation of a base influence the degree to which the local government will use the same tax base does the tax rate chosen by one local government influence the choices made by another local government the theoretical answer to these questions is often in the affirmative because of vertical and horizontal externalities that result when several governments are operating at the same time in a fiscal system however little empirical information is available this paper estimates the impact of horizontal and vertical externalities on the choice of tax rates by local governments operating in a federation higher national income tax rates and lower poverty rates are found to lead to lower local income tax rates

consumer demand for nutrition versus taste in four major food categories this study addresses the trade off between nutrition and taste in expenditure on breakfast cereal milk bread and soft drinks within each category products have similar cost and convenience but have markedly different flavor and nutritional content using annual expenditure data for a large sample of households participating in the acnielsen homescan system we regress a measure of healthiness on household demographics and market prices and find that households with college educated heads and higher incomes made significantly healthier choices in all four categories these effects are puzzling in that the nutritional differences between products were well known to consumers and there are no cost or convenience differences between them the presence of children was associated with less healthy choices especially for cereal and bread while older households made healthier choices in all categories except milk

roughing it up including jump components in the measurement modeling and forecasting of return volatility a rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and forecasting via use of realized variation measures constructed from high frequency returns coupled with simple modeling procedures building on recent theoretical results in barndorff nielsen and shephard 2004a 2005 for related bi power variation measures the present paper provides a practical and robust framework for non parametrically measuring the jump component in asset return volatility in an application to the dm exchange rate the s p500 market index and the 30 year u s treasury bond yield we find that jumps are both highly prevalent and distinctly less persistent than the continuous sample path variation process moreover many jumps appear directly associated with specific macroeconomic news announcements separating jump from non jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model we find that almost all of the predictability in daily weekly and monthly return volatilities comes from the non jump component our results thus set the stage for a number of interesting future econometric developments and important financial applications by separately modeling forecasting and pricing the continuous and jump components of the total return variation process

nesting the aids and translog demand systems this paper shows that there exists a relatively simple demand model that is consistent with utility maximization and has nested within it both the almost ideal demand system and translog models this model is exactly aggregated then estimated using aggregate u s demand data the results are used to test the relative adequacy of the almost ideal demand system and translog models copyright 1989 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

a structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply work on estimating the labor supply effects of high marginal tax rates in welfare programs has been hindered by the difficulty of estimating the effects of participation in multiple welfare programs simultaneously the authors solve this problem by applying methods of simulation estimation to a model of labor supply and multiple program participation the results show asymmetric wage and tax rate effects with fairly large wage elasticities of labor supply but very inelastic responses to moderate changes in cumulative marginal tax rates implying that high welfare tax rates do not necessarily induce major reductions in work effort copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence evidence from the states abstract this paper formalizes and tests the notion that states expenditures depend on the spending of similarly situated states we find that even after allowing for fixed state effects year effects and common random shocks among neighbors a state government s level of per capita expenditure is positively and significantly affected by the expenditure levels of its neighbors ceteris paribus a one dollar increase in a state s neighbors expenditures increases its own expenditure by over 70 cents

charitable contributions and intergenerational transfers abstract this paper investigates the effects of bequest taxes and the income of children on the lifetime charitable contributions of parents using matched income tax records for parents and children the results show a positive elasticity of 0 6 for contributions with respect to the tax price of bequests the paper also finds that the income of children affects the amount that parents contribute to charity the results show a positive elasticity of up to 0 14 for contributions by parents with respect to the income of children implying that when children are better off parents are likely to increase charitable giving

consumer knowledge and meat consumption at home and away from home we investigate the roles of consumer knowledge and sociodemographic factors in the consumption of meat products at home and away from home censored dependent variables and endogenous dietary knowledge are accommodated by developing and estimating a simultaneous equations system results suggest endogeneity of knowledge and support the system approach to demand functions for meat products dietary knowledge decreases consumption of beef and pork at home and away from home but does not affect poultry or fish consumption in either location men eat more meat and fish than women meat consumption declines with age and regional and racial ethnic differences are present published by elsevier ltd

a brief empirical note on the tiebout hypothesis and state income tax policies some years ago tiebout 1956 418 hypothesized that the consumervoter may be viewed as picking that community which best satisfies his preference pattern for public goods the consumer voter moves to that community whose local government best satisfies his set of preferences based upon this argument by tiebout this brief note seeks to empirically examine the impact of state income tax policy upon the geographic mobility of consumer voters in the united states more specifically we attempt to determine whether the existence of a state income tax significantly influences the in migration of consumer voters naturally the analysis includes suitable non tax control variables to reflect other factors which may influence the migration decision calculus

estate taxation with intended and accidental bequests abstract in this paper we examine the properties of the optimal estate tax in the presence of a complete set of tax instruments available to the social planner we allow for both types of bequest motives namely altruistic and accidental we examine the case for estate taxation which seems to be the strongest but not impeccable with accidental bequests in general the estate tax is highly sensitive to the relative importance of the two bequest motives

household demand for fats and oils two step estimation of a censored demand system a censored system of household fat and oil demand equations is estimated with a two step procedure using cross sectional data from the 1987 1988 us nationwide food consumption survey own price and total expenditure elasticities are close to unity and there is no evidence of gross substitutability compensated elasticities suggest net substitution among the products considered

factors affecting the timing of purchasing of butter margarine and blends a competing goods analysis the purchase dynamics of a subset of food fats and oils are investigated using event history analysis applied to a panel of u s households the consumer behavior examined is the switching between purchases of butter margarine and butter margarine blends across purchase occasions we find that price previous purchases seasonality and household size and composition affect product switching probability

diagnosis murder the death of state death taxes since 1976 more than 30 states have eliminated their death taxes and many others have reduced them this unexplored case of interstate tax competition presents a unique opportunity to develop a new more satisfying definition of competitor based on historical elderly migration patterns using data from 1967 onward we outline the recent history of state death tax competition and present a spatial econometric analysis interstate tax competition is evident and grows stronger when using migration based definitions of competitors the article concludes with still more evidence of interstate tax competition the recent movement by states to effectively revive their death taxes jel h7 d7 i introduction the federal estate tax has received wide attention especially because its elimination has been a centerpiece of president george w bush s tax proposals 1 largely overlooked however is the quiet revolution that has been taking place at the state level since 1976 31 of the 48 contiguous states have repealed their death or estate inheritance and gift eig taxes instead relying only on the pick up tax whereby states capture a portion of the federal estate tax liability but do not increase the overall liability of the estate 2 of the remaining 12 states that still have eig taxes 2 have enacted legislation that will eliminate them by 2005 and others are considering doing so beyond the outright elimination of eig taxes many states have also acted to reduce them in a variety of ways such as exempting certain beneficiaries such as the spouse this trend is noteworthy for several reasons foremost it appears to us a prime example of intense interstate tax competition due to the growing size and political influence of the elderly population there is additional political pressure because states may worry that high eig taxes will drive the high income elderly to move to bordering states or retirement havens the stakes may be substantial for example longino and crown 1989 estimate that florida had a net gain of 5 billion in income from the elderly migrants it received between 1985 and 1990 and sastry 1992 73 estimates that one new job is created for every 2 5 elderly migrants it receives state eig tax competition also provides us with a unique opportunity to explore alternative definitions of competitor states beyond simple geography because the movements of the tax base the elderly are fairly easy to track via historical migration data yet no research to our knowledge has explored interstate eig tax competition furthermore these widespread changes in state eig taxes provide substantial cross sectional and time series variation that has been mostly overlooked by researchers interested in the behavioral effects of estate taxes 3 state eig tax policy is also still in flux current and proposed changes in the federal estate tax have substantial revenue consequences for states effectively eliminating eig tax revenues for those that rely solely on the pick up tax how will the states react to this change at present several states have enacted or are considering legislation that would effectively decouple their eig taxes from the federal estate tax and so would preserve the revenue source indeed as the federal estate tax is slowly eliminated eig taxes in states that continue to use them may be the only remaining taxes on bequests yet little is known about them our research seeks to fill this void using state level data from 1967 to the present we first describe the brief history and geographical pattern of these widespread reductions in state eig taxes to our knowledge ours is the first research to document in a systematic way this phenomenon we begin with a chronology of the states that eliminated completely their eig taxes thereby choosing to rely instead only on the pick up tax however there are many other ways that the states may reduce their eig taxes such as increasing exemptions or reducing tax rates

simple tests of distributional effects on macroeconomic equations the presence of distributional effects in macroeconomic equations is shown to coincide with nonlinearity in micro behavioral relationships parameters estimated with aggregate data as in representative agent models contain distributional biases that are not measurable using aggregate data alone tests for distributional effects and other measures of the extent of aggregation problems are derived using distributional data observed over time significant distributional effects are noted for a model of annual aggregate u s commodity expenditure data a static model that accommodates individual heterogeneity is found to be statistically equivalent to a simply dynamic model that accommodates first order autocorrelation

continuous time models realized volatilities and testable distributional implications for daily stock returns we provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily speculative returns within the context of the continuous time jump diffusion models traditionally used in asset pricing finance our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures and non parametric jump detection statistics constructed from high frequency intra day data a sequence of simple to implement moment based tests involving various transformations of the daily returns speak directly to the importance of different distributional features and may serve as useful diagnostic tools in the specification of empirically more realistic continuous time asset pricing models on applying the tests to the 30 individual stocks in the dow jones industrial average index we find that it is important to allow for both time varying diffusive volatility jumps and leverage effects to satisfactorily describe the daily stock price dynamics copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

higher moment risk premiums for the crude oil market a downside and upside conditional decomposition abstract relying on options written on the uso an exchange traded fund tracking the daily price changes of the wti light sweet crude oil we extract variance and skew risk premiums in a model free way we further decompose these risk premiums into downside and upside conditional components and show that they can be partially explained by uso excess returns and more importantly these decomposed risk premiums enable a much better prediction of uso excess returns than the standard or undecomposed variance and skew risk premiums a comparison with existing results for the equity index option market further confirms the usefulness of the decomposition for the crude oil market

stock prices and volume the authors undertake a comprehensive investigation of price and volume co movement using daily new york stock exchange data from 1928 to 1987 they adjust the data to take into account well known calendar effects and long run trends to describe the process they use a seminonparametric estimate of the joint density of current price change and volume conditional on past price changes and volume four empirical regularities are found 1 positive correlation between conditional volatility and volume 2 large price movements are followed by high volume 3 conditioning on lagged volume substantially attenuates the leverage effect and 4 after conditioning on lagged volume there is a positive risk return relation article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the impact of trades on daily volatility this article proposes a trading based explanation for the asymmetric effect in daily volatility of individual stock returns previous studies propose two major hypotheses for this phenomenon leverage effect and time varying expected returns however leverage has no impact on asymmetric volatility at the daily frequency and moreover we observe asymmetric volatility for stocks with no leverage also expected returns may vary with the business cycle that is at a lower than daily frequency trading activity of contrarian and herding investors has a robust effect on the relationship between daily volatility and lagged return consistent with the predictions of the rational expectation models the non informational liquidity driven herding trades increase volatility following stock price declines and the informed contrarian trades reduce volatility following stock price increases the results are robust to different measures of volatility and trading activity jel c30 g11 g12 stock return volatility is fundamental to finance contingent claims pricing risk management asset allocation and market efficiency tests use volatility as a basic building block consequently volatility has been widely studied along several dimensions volatility clustering in financial data has been well documented and extensively modeled by the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch of engle 1982 and the generalized arch extension of bollerslev 1986 1 shiller 1981 leroy and porter 1981 roll 1984 1988 french and roll 1986 and cutler poterba and summers 1989 have all documented a significant amount of volatility that cannot be explained by changes in fundamentals and thus may be attributable to mispricing schwert 1989 has studied the variation in stock market volatility over time and has analyzed the

the cost of equality unequal bequests and tax avoidance abstract for altruistic parents desiring to bequeath their wealth to their children estate taxes can be costly in utility terms the most straightforward way to reduce the tax burden is through inter vivos transfers taking full advantage of potential tax free giving often requires that parents differentiate between children in the amounts transferred this unequal giving contrasts sharply with the presumed desire to make equal bequests this paper examines the extent to which wealthy parents take advantage of tax free giving and whether the desire to spend down an estate is sufficient to induce unequal giving i find that while wealthy parents do appear to make early bequests they rarely do so to the extent permitted by law and thus forego a substantial amount of tax savings

explaining credit default swap spreads by means of realized jumps and volatilities in the energy market abstract this paper studies the relationship between credit default swap cds spreads for the energy sector and oil futures dynamics using data on light sweet crude oil futures from 2004 to 2013 which contains a crisis period we examine the importance of volatility and jumps extracted from the futures in explaining cds spread changes the analysis is performed at an index level and by rating group as well as for the pre crisis crisis and post crisis periods our findings are consistent with merton s theoretical framework at an index level futures jumps are important when explaining cds spread changes with negative jumps having higher impact during the crisis the continuous volatility part is significant and positive indicating that futures volatility conveys relevant information for the cds market as for the analysis per rating group negative jumps have an increasing importance as the credit rating deteriorates and during the crisis period while the results for positive jumps and futures volatility are mixed overall the relation between the cds market and the futures market is stronger during volatile periods and strengthened after the global financial crisis

will developing country nutrition improve with income a case study for rural south india aggregate estimates of food expenditure are consistent with such a possibility implying income expenditure elasticities close to one however the high degree of aggregation at which such estimates are made means that the considerable increase in price per nutrient as income increases is ignored and the nutrient elasticities are therefore overstated estimates for a rural south indian sample indicate that this bias is considerable and that the true nutrient elasticities with respect to income may be close to zero

maturity effects in energy futures abstract this paper examines the effects of maturity on future price volatility and trading volume for 129 energy futures contracts recently traded in the nymex the results provide support for the maturity effect hypothesis that is energy futures prices do become more volatile and trading volume increases as futures contracts approach maturity

the non equalization of true gift and estate tax rates abstract before 1976 the affluent transferred most of their wealth to their heirs through bequests not gifts even though gifts faced lower statutory tax rates this suggests the affluent were not acting altruistically however bequests had the advantage that unrealized capital gains were forgiven at the moment of transfer taking this into account i derive true marginal gift and estate tax rates contrary to previous research i find that the affluent failed to equalize these true rates both before and after 1976 this represents stronger evidence that the large transfers made by the affluent were not motivated by altruism

health and wage a simultaneous equation model with multiple discrete indicators in this article we propose all econometric approach for estimating the simultaneouls effects of health and wages in a structural equations framework in the theoretical works of grossmana 1972a 1972b health is viewed as anl elldogen1oulsly determined capital stock the demand for health should rise with the wage rate as the rate of return to health investment increases with wage onl the other hand better health should raise market productivity and hence wages since health capital is an abstract theoretical concept it can hardly be measured quantitatively however most population surveys include various health indicators these indicators are usually discrete variables in the empirical work of grossman and benham 1974 these qualitative indicators are treated as continuous variables and two stage least squares estimation techniques are used this specification raises various econometric problems see e g goldberger 1964 pp 248 255 domencich and mcfadden 1975 and nerlove and press 1973 a satisfactory specification should take into account the discrete nature of the indicators our specification generalizes the dummy variables simultaneous equations system of heckman 1978 the measurement models of joreskog and goldberger 1975 and is closely related to the models of muthe n 1976 1979 muthen studies full information maximum likelihood procedures for estimation except for very simple cases this does not generally yield feasible or tractable procedures in this article we introduce a tractable procedure for statistical estimation and testing this specification and the estimation procedure is then applied to study the joint dependence of health and wages another departure of our approach from others is that we will test and correct the possible incompatibility of the various health capital indicators in the population surveys one may have subjective health indicators such as self evaluation of health which may reflect different populations perception of health we propose a statistical procedure for testing measurement compatibility and if required for correcting this problem this article is divided into two parts initially we describe the model specification estimation and statistical tests in a general simultaneous equation model with multiple discrete indicators in the second part of the paper we consider specification of a simultaneous equation model for health and wages the model

forecasting the realized volatility of the oil futures market a regime switching approach considering nonlinear and highly persistent dynamics of realized volatility we introduce markov regime switching models to the heterogeneous autoregressive model of the realized volatility har rv models to forecast the realized volatility of the crude oil futures market in sample results demonstrate that the high volatility regime is short lived out of sample results suggest that har rv models with regime switching increase the forecasting ability significantly than those without regime switching moreover these findings are robust for different actual volatility benchmarks forecasting windows and model settings

the samuelson hypothesis in futures markets an analysis using intraday data this paper considers the samuelson hypothesis which argues that the futures price volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its expiration utilizing intraday data from 20 futures markets in six futures exchanges we find strong support for the samuelson hypothesis in agricultural futures however the samuelson hypothesis does not hold for other futures contracts we also provide supporting evidence that the negative covariance hypothesis is the key factor for the empirical support of the samuelson hypothesis in addition our findings remain largely unaltered even after we control for seasonality and liquidity effects

alleged tax competition the mysterious death of bequest taxes in switzerland abstract interjurisdictional competition over mobile tax bases is an easily understood mechanism but actual tax base elasticities are difficult to estimate political pressure for reducing tax rates could therefore be based on erroneous estimates of the mobility of tax bases we show that tax competition provided the most prominent argument in the policy debates leading to a succession of reforms of bequest taxation by swiss cantons yet canton level panel data spanning multiple bequest tax reforms over a 36 year period suggest the relevant tax base high income retirees to be relatively inelastic with respect to tax rates the alleged pressures of tax competition did not seem in reality to exist

transactions volume and volatility we show that the positive volatility volume relation documented by numerous researchers actually reflects the positive relation between volatility and the number of transactions thus it is the occurrence of transactions per se and not their size that generates volatility trade size has no information beyond that contained in the frequency of transactions our results suggest that theoretical research needs to entertain scenarios in which 1 both the frequency and size of trades are endogenously determined yet 2 the size of trades has no information content beyond that contained in the number of transactions article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

market conditions trader types and price volume relation in energy futures markets we investigate the asymmetric relations between trading volume and price changes and trading volume and price volatility of energy futures contracts across maturities and under different market conditions using a relatively long sample of daily observations we examine whether the impact of trading volume on returns and volatility of futures contracts can be time varying and dependent on the market condition we differentiate the market condition based on the slope of the forward curve into backwardation and contango the results indicate that trading volume and returns are positively related when the market is in backwardation and negatively related when the market is in contango in addition the positive relation between changes in trading volume and volatility of futures contracts seem to be stronger when the market is in backwardation than when it is in contango finally the results indicate that to a certain extent trade participation and trading activities of agents in energy futures markets can be explained by the slope of the forward curve which reflects the market condition and sentiment

news good or bad and its impact on volatility predictions over multiple horizons we examine whether the sign and magnitude of intra daily returns have impact on expected volatility the next day or over longer future horizons we first let the data speak namely with minimal interference we capture the mapping between intra daily returns and future volatility we revisit the concept of news impact curves introduced by engle and ng 1993 overall we find that moderately good intra daily news reduces volatility the next day while both very good news unusual high intra daily positive returns and bad news negative returns increase volatility with the latter having a more severe impact the asymmetries disappear over longer horizons we also introduce a new class of parametric models which feature asymmetries and with close ties to arch type models albeit applicable to a mixture of high and low frequency data models featuring asymmetries dominate especially during the 2007 2008 financial crisis

charitable bequests and taxes on inheritances and estates aggregate evidence from across states and time this paper examines the impact of wealth transfer taxes on charitable bequests we exploit the fact that federal and state taxes on estates and inheritances vary over time states and real wealth levels the effects of taxes are estimated using pooled cross sectional data spanning several decades based on aggregated information from federal estate tax returns under several different specifications we find evidence of a strong incentive effect of estate and inheritance taxes on charitable bequests

bequest taxes inter vivos gifts and the bequest motive abstract this paper investigates the existence of an operative bequest motive by testing whether state bequest taxes influence the giving of inter vivos gifts a significant positive relation between bequest tax rates and both the probability and level of inter vivos gifts is found suggesting that at least some portion of bequests is intentional

the econometric analysis of models with risk terms summary in this paper we have attempted to provide an integrated approach to the estimation of models with risk terms it was argued that there exist orthogonality conditions between variables in the information set and higher order moments of the unanticipated variable density these could be exploited to provide consistent estimators of the parameters associated with the risk term specifically it was recommended that an iv estimator should be applied with instruments constructed from the information set four existing methods commonly used to estimate models with risk terms are examined and applications of the techniques are made to the estimation of the risk term in the us c exchange market and the effects of price uncertainty upon production

assessing market microstructure effects via realized volatility measures with an application to the dow jones industrial average stocks transaction prices of financial assets are contaminated by market microstructure effects this is particularly relevant when estimating volatility using high frequency data in this article we assess statistically the effect of microstructure noise on volatility estimators and test the hypothesis that its variance is independent of the sampling frequency we provide evidence based on the dow jones industrial average stocks we find that noise has a statistically significant effect on volatility estimators at frequencies of 2 3 min or higher the independently and identically distributed specification with constant variance seems to be a plausible model for microstructure noise except for ultra high frequencies

testing for strategic interaction among local governments the case of growth controls this paper helps to fill a gap in the public economics literature by providing empirical evidence on strategic interaction among local governments using the methodology of case et al journal of public economics 52 285 307 1993 the paper focuses on the adoption of growth control measures by cities in california and looks for evidence of policy interdependence in these choices the data are drawn from an elaborate survey of growth control practices in california cities conducted by glickfeld and levine regional growth local reaction lincoln institute of land policy cambridge ma 1992 the survey results are used to compute an index of the stringency of growth controls in each city which serves as the dependent variable for the study

getting consumers to eat more whole grains the role of policy information and food manufacturers the 2005 dietary guidelines were unique because they offered quantitative recommendations for consumption of whole grains this case study examines the hypothesis that the changed recommendations were responsible for the recent increase in retail sales and consumption of whole grain food products we find that release of the dietary guidelines and related media attention did increase availability and sales of whole grain foods a large impact on consumption occurred through reformulation of existing products induced by competition among food suppliers this study reveals the key role product reformulation plays in inter firm competition and in realization of dietary changes recommended by public

quantity and quality effects of advertising a demand system approach quantity and quality effects of advertising are investigated in this article a censored demand system is estimated for fish beef pork and other meats using norwegian household data in the demand model generic fish advertising and meat advertising is introduced as demand shifters and at the same time unit values are treated as endogenous the unit values capture the quality of the commodities empirical findings show that advertising can have both quantity and quality effects on household demand

the relation between price changes and trading volume a survey this paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets and makes four contributions first two empiri cal relations are established volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and in equity markets to the price change per se second previous theoretical research on the price volume relation is summarized and critiqued and major insights are emphasized third a simple model ofthe price volume relation is proposed that is consis tent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations and fourth several directions for future research are identified

the demand for selected nutrients by greek households an empirical analysis with quantile regressions the article uses information from the 1993 1994 household consumption survey and the semiparametric quantile regression approach to analyze the demand for three macronutrients carbohydrates proteins and fats and three micronutrients minerals vitamins and cholesterol in greece according to the empirical results the age of the household head the degree of urbanization the percentage of food expenditure devoted to food away from home and the per capita consumption expenditure affect the intakes of nutrients across all the five quantiles considered the impact however of the household head s gender and the impact of his her educational achievement are located only at the lower and the higher quantiles respectively the expenditure elasticities are substantially lower than unity suggesting inelastic responses of nutrient intakes to per capita consumption expenditure

forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data abstract we use the information in intraday data to forecast the volatility of crude oil at a horizon of 1 66 days using a variety of models relying on the decomposition of realized variance in its positive or negative semivariances part and its continuous or discontinuous part jumps we show the importance of these decompositions in predictive in sample regressions using a number of specifications nevertheless an important empirical finding comes from an out of sample analysis which unambiguously shows the limited interest of considering these components overall our results indicates that a simple autoregressive specification mimicking long memory and using past realized variances as predictors does not perform significantly worse than more sophisticated models which include the various components of realized variance

the theory and econometrics of health information in cross sectional nutrient demand analysis understanding the role of health information in food and nutrient demand has become an important issue over the last decade endogeneity and measurement error are two empirical problems that are inherent in this type of analysis while some type of instrumental variables estimation would appear the obvious solution this article provides several theoretical and empirical reasons why this is not the case in cross sectional analysis an alternative estimation strategy is pursued an empirical example is given and the implications are discussed copyright 2001 oxford university press

brand inertia in u s household cheese consumption to analyze u s consumers brand choices for cheese purchases we derive a set of discrete choice models from dynamic utility maximization acnielsen homescan survey data on u s households is used to estimate a dynamic probit model for each of the top brands for cheddar shredded and sliced cheese in four u s regions we find that households have strong brand inertia a result robust across alternative specifications predicted probabilities confirm greater inertia in the top brands and consumers are more likely to switch into them brand inertia is relatively larger in cheddar and sliced cheese especially in the central and southeast regions copyright 2008 oxford university press

consumer attitudes and voluntary rate schedules for public utilities attitudes enter as latent explanatory variables in a model of consumers choice among optional rate schedules offered by a public utility a consistent estimator of the choice model is described that utilizes the distribution of the latent attitude variables conditional on manifest indicator variables the model is applied to households choice between time of use and non time differentiated rates for electricity to determine the impact of attitudes about energy conservation copyright 1987 by mit press

getting rid of trans fats in the us diet policies incentives and progress artificial trans fats in foods increase chronic disease risk in the us population federal nutrition label regulation enacted in 2003 requires mandatory disclosure of trans fat content on packaged foods this action created incentives for the food industry to reduce trans fats both in response to consumer demand and through competition to maintain product reputation subsequent public actions include a ban on trans fat use in new york city restaurants and lawsuits against food companies which created further incentives to remove trans fats especially in the food service industry industry has reformulated packaged foods and found substitutes for restaurant fry oils and trans fats are disappearing from the us food supply market response extends throughout the supply chain and has spurred research to alter oilseed crop characteristics the widespread and relatively rapid industry response likely has improved the quality of us diets and demonstrates the potential for policy actions to spur such improvements

on the volatility volume relationship in energy futures markets using intraday data this paper investigates the relationship between trading volume and price volatility in the crude oil and natural gas futures markets when using high frequency data by regressing various realized volatility measures with without jumps on trading volume and trading frequency our results feature a contemporaneous and largely positive relationship furthermore we test whether the volatility volume relationship is symmetric for energy futures by considering positive and negative realized semivariances we show that i an asymm etric volatility volume relationship indeed exists ii trading volume and trading frequency significantly affect negative and positive realized semivariance and iii the information content of negative realized semivariance is higher than for positive realized semivariance

the asymmetric volatility in the gold market revisited abstract based on 13 5 years of intraday data this paper sheds light on the inverse asymmetric volatility effect inherent in the gold market after decomposing realized volatility into positive and negative semivariance rolling estimations of the har model uncover the relative importance of the long term positive semivariance and reveal the dynamics of the individual volatility components over time two effects are identified the relevance of the short term negative semivariance is rather pervasive while the impact of the positive semivariance is strongly correlated with the overall development of the gold market the asymmetric nature of gold price volatility is multi faceted and hence more complex than previously documented

a new market for an old food the u s demand for olive oil while u s consumption of olive oil has tripled over the past two decades nearly all olive oil continues to be imported estimation of a demand system using monthly import data reveals that the income elasticity for virgin oils sourced from eu is above one but demand for nonvirgin oils is income inelastic the demand for olive oil as a single product is price inelastic differentiated by product characteristic and origin olive oils are highly substitutable with each other but not with other vegetable oils news about the health and culinary benefits of olive oil and the spread of mediterranean diet contribute significantly to the rising demand

information endogeneity and consumer health behaviour application to dietary intakes due to heightened public health interest a growing number of consumer health behaviour studies are focusing on the effect of health information on the demand for health inputs and outcomes many of these studies however have overlooked the potential endogeneity of information variables stemming from unobserved individual heterogeneity due to simultaneity bias ignoring endogeneity may lead to inaccurate estimates of informational effects on health behaviour using dietary intake data for fat saturated fat cholesterol and fibre this paper illustrates the pitfalls of treating health information related to these nutrients as exogenous variables in their demand equations in most of the estimated models the exogeneity of information is statistically rejected when the information variables are treated as exogenous variables their effects on dietary intakes are underestimated the estimated effects of key intake determinants such as income education ethnicity and race are also different in such a

incumbent behavior vote seeking tax setting and yardstick competition this paper develops a model of the political economy of tax setting in a multijurisdictional world where voters choices and incumbent behavior are determined simultaneously voters are assumed to make comparisons between jurisdictions to overcome political agency problems this forces incumbents into a yardstick competition in which they care about what other incumbents are doing we provide a theoretical framework and empirical evidence using u s state data from 1960 to 1988 the results are encouraging to the view that vote seeking and tax setting are tied together through the nexus of yardstick competition

can state tax policies be used to promote entrepreneurial activity despite a recent flurry of empirical research on the effects of taxes on small business activity state level taxes faced by entrepreneurs have been overlooked by most of the existing literature using a 50 state panel of tax policy information spanning the years 1989 through 2002 our analysis reveals that state tax policies generally do not appear to have quantitatively important effects on entrepreneurial activity when we find statistically important effects we find that higher individual income tax rates the existence of a state level estate inheritance or gift tax and a higher weight on the sales factor in the state corporate income tax apportionment formula all slightly reduce a state s share of the national entrepreneurial stock results also indicate that states with more progressive personal income tax structures and states that have more aggressive corporate income taxes through the imposition of a combined reporting requirement both tend to have slightly higher entrepreneurship rates the composition of state tax portfolios is not found to be a significant determinant of state entrepreneurship

bequest taxes and capital gains realizations abstract contrary to popular view capital gains do not escape taxation at death as they are subject to the estate tax the presence of the step up in basis increases the lock in effect of capital gains taxes as individuals are induced to hold assets until death this effect however is mitigated by the estate tax which applies to assets passed to heirs using a sample of matched income and estate tax records in a period that straddles significant changes in capital gains and estate tax rates the estate tax is found to have an unlocking effect on capital gains realizations the realization elasticity with respect to the estate tax rate is estimated at 0 36 in the basic model

the dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume domestic and cross country evidence abstract this paper examines the dynamic relations causal relations and the sign and magnitude of dynamic effects between stock market trading volume and returns and volatility for both domestic and cross country markets by using the daily data of the three largest stock markets new york tokyo and london major findings are as follows first trading volume does not granger cause stock market returns on each of three stock markets second there exists a positive feedback relationship between trading volume and return volatility in all three markets third regarding the cross country relationships us financial market variables in particular us trading volume contains an extensive predictive power for uk and japanese financial market variables fourth sub sample analyses show evidence of stronger spillover effects after the 1987 market crash and an increased importance of trading volume as an information variable after the introduction of options in the us and japan

vertical externalities in tax setting evidence from gasoline and cigarettes abstract a common feature of federal systems is that tax bases are joint property consequently state and federal tax setting decisions are interdependent our aim here is to put forward a rudimentary theoretical analysis of this phenomenon and to use the theory as a framework for econometrically estimating the magnitude of the responses we find that when the federal government increases taxes there is a significant positive response of state taxes for example a 10 cent per gallon increase in the federal tax rate on gasoline leads to a 3 2 cent increase in the state tax rate

household inequality entrepreneurial dynamism and corporate financing economic theories provide conflicting hypotheses on how wealth inequality affects entrepreneurial dynamism to empirically investigate its impact we construct local measures of household wealth inequality based on financial rents home equity and 1880 farmland we identify its effects on entrepreneurship by instrumenting it with land distribution under the 1862 homestead act or us states removal of death taxes wealth inequality decreases firm entry and exit and the proportion of high tech businesses across metropolitan statistical areas there is also less redistribution into public goods supportive of entrepreneurship such as schooling and the judiciary income per capita consequently grows more slowly

tax competition and tax structure in open federal economies evidence from oecd countries with implications for the european union tax competition arguments suggest that governments that operate in an open economy such as local governments should not and will not rely on non benefit taxes such as the income tax yet we observe reliance on income taxes by local governments in many countries and such reliance changes over time evidence from a panel data set of 13 oecd countries over the period 1975 1984 suggests that competition between levels of government resulting in a vertical fiscal externality and between levels of government at the same level resulting in a horizontal fiscal externality provide some economic rationale for these changes moreover the evidence indicates that the vertical and horizontal fiscal externalities interact these results have some interesting implications for fiscal policy in the european union particulary as the eu continues to evolve one implication for the eu is that enlargement that increases tax base disparities within the eu and is not accompanied by an eu level income tax will tend to lower national income tax rates although this must be qualified because it also depends on the mobility of the population a second implication is that fiscal expansion of the eu to include an eu levelincome tax may tend to lower the reliance of national governments on income taxes through the vertical externality but may also tend to equalize tax bases across countries and so increase reliance on national income taxes through the horizontal externality

economics food choices and nutrition abstract our goal in this paper is to examine the role and influence of economic factors defined rather broadly on consumer food choices and hence nutritional outcomes we attempt to do this in a non technical fashion we examine the role of prices especially as they relate to the affordability of food in the united states and as a policy lever income is analyzed as a driving force behind changes in eating habits in particular increasing the demand for convenience the role of time constraints as well as time preference are examined as links to healthy eating habits and as forces behind current trends in eating patterns information and knowledge are given prominent play as counter balances to economic forces driving eating habits we conclude with and examination into maternal nutrition knowledge and children s dietary quality

schooling health knowledge and obesity the connection between schooling and health is well documented an important empirical issue that needs to be examined however is whether schooling s effects are due to individual health knowledge differences this empirical study examines this issue with an increasingly important health indicator obesity since provision of health knowledge is a major tool of public agencies promoting health this empirical study uses a new direct measure of health knowledge to test this hypothesis the results show that knowledge is inversely related to the probability that an individual is obese schooling s effects on relative weight and the probability of being obese are explained by differences in knowledge this result may imply that schooling s effect on the allocative efficiency of the household production of health is the main reason schooling is linked to health behaviour the result also may imply that the most effective method of health education is to highlight the disease element of poor dietary habits a

choosing between gifts and bequests how taxes affect the timing of wealth transfers abstract a number of theories have been advanced to explain the size and timing of intergenerational transfers one factor only recently explored is the effects of taxes and in particular the estate tax on such transfers this paper represents the first attempt to explore how capital gains and gift taxes in addition to the estate tax interact to influence incentives in the timing of transfers using estate tax data and exploiting variations in state inheritance gift and capital gains tax rates this paper finds taxes to be an important consideration in the choice between gifts and bequests in particular each of capital gains and gift taxes are found to be important determinants of the timing of transfers these findings are robust to a number of specifications that control for borrowing charitable bequests marital status and the portfolio composition of wealth transfers

efficiency aspects of increasing inheritance taxes while decreasing income taxes this article tries to shed some light on the economic efficiency aspects of a tax reform that would increase inheritance taxes while decreasing income taxes an analysis of labour market decisions following the activation of such a reform is presented an international comparison of inheritance tax collection shows that almost all industrial countries impose an inheritance tax however government revenue from inheritance and gift taxes in europe is lower than 1 of gdp and is very low in the united states as well applying the proposed reform could increase work hours and delay retirement decisions

an exogeneity test for a simultaneous equation tobit model with an application to labor supply a test of weak exogeneity in the simultaneous equation tobit model is proposed and illustrated using a female labour supply model estimated using cross section data the test statistic can be simply output from any standard tobit maximum likelihood package and is asymptotically efficient the procedure provides consistent estimators for the simultaneous tobit model whose asymptotic covariance matrix is a simple extension of the usual tobit formula we also provide the lagrange multiplier test of weak exogeneity this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item