rational inattentiveness in a forecasting experiment while standard theory assumes rational optimizing agents under full information the latter is rarely found in reality information has to be acquired and processed both involving costs in rational inattentiveness models agents update their information set only when the benefit outweighs the information cost we test the rational inattentiveness model in a controlled laboratory environment our design is a forecasting task with costly information and a clear cost benefit structure while we find numerous deviations from the model predictions on the individual level the aggregate results are consistent with rational inattentiveness and sticky information models rejecting simpler behavioral heuristics

hand in the cookie jar an experimental investigation of equity based compensation and managerial fraud the use of equity based compensation is an increasingly popular means by which to align the incentives of top management with those of the shareholders however recent theoretical and empirical research indicates that the use of equity based compensation has the unintended consequence of creating the incentive to commit managerial fraud of the type being reported in the press this paper reports experimental evidence that shows that the amount of fraud committed by subjects is positively correlated with the level of equity as is the level of effort in addition the amount of fraud that is committed is negatively correlated with the probability of detection and subjects risk aversion the experimental design permits the identification of causal relations in the directions just noted

lottery choice incentives complexity and decision time this paper reports the results of an experiment on lottery choice in which decision cost is measured as decision making time a simple decision cost model motivates this measurement and the experiment and predicts relationships between incentive mechanism manipulations and decision making time which are borne out in the experiment the decision cost model also suggests that decisions will change in the face of the incentive manipulations in the experiment this suggestion is borne out in a complex decision making environment but not in a simple one specification tests demonstrate that observed changes in subjects behavior are not merely due to changes in subject specific error variance one may conclude from this that the payoff dominance problem is a real issue in complex decision making experiments copyright 1993 by royal economic society

how do different designs of energy labels influence purchases of household appliances a field study in switzerland abstract energy labels are a key element of energy efficiency policies they provide information on appliances energy consumption and aim at increasing consumers attention to this characteristic a well known example is the eu energy label which is required by law to be displayed on most energy using durables in the eu as well as in switzerland in cooperation with a large online retailer in switzerland we assess the impact of the eu energy label and of a newly designed monetary lifetime oriented energy label in the field we analyze private purchases of household appliances especially freezers vacuum cleaners and tumble dryers we find that the display of any of the two energy labels increases the sales proportion of energy efficient appliances compared to the absence of any energy label at the same time we observe a volume effect for freezers the average size of purchased freezers is larger when any of the two energy labels is displayed compared to the absence of any energy label the influence of the two different energy labels is similar except for vacuum cleaners for which monetary information might have an adverse effect

market barriers to energy efficiency abstract discussions of energy policy in an environmentally constrained world often focus on the use of tax instruments to internalize the external effects of energy utilization or achieve specified reductions in energy use in the most cost effective manner a substantial literature suggests however that significant opportunities exist to reduce energy utilization by implementing technologies that are cost effective under prevailing economic conditions but that are not fully implemented by existing market institutions this paper examines the theory of the market for energy using equipment showing that problems of imperfect information and transaction costs may bias rational consumers to purchase devices that use more energy than those that would be selected by a well informed social planner guided by the criterion of economic efficiency consumers must base their purchase decisions on observed prices and expectations of post purchase equipment performance if it is difficult or costly for individuals to form accurate and precise expectations the level of energy efficiency achieved by competitive markets will vary from the socially efficient outcome such market barriers suggest a role for regulatory intervention to improve market performance at prevailing energy prices

constrained after college student loans and early career occupational choices abstract in the early 2000s a highly selective university introduced a no loans policy under which the loan component of financial aid awards was replaced with grants we use this natural experiment to identify the causal effect of student debt on employment outcomes in the standard life cycle model young people make optimal educational investment decisions if they are able to finance these investments by borrowing against future earnings the presence of debt has only income effects on investment decisions we find that debt causes graduates to choose substantially higher salary jobs and reduces the probability that students choose low paid public interest jobs we also find some evidence that debt affects students academic decisions during college our estimates suggest that recent college graduates are not life cycle agents two potential explanations are that young workers are credit constrained or that they are averse to holding debt we find suggestive evidence that debt reduces students donations to the institution in the years after they graduate and increases the likelihood that a graduate will default on a pledge made during her senior year we argue this result is more likely consistent with credit constraints than with debt aversion

do natural field experiments afford researchers more or less control than laboratory experiments abstract a commonly held view is that laboratory experiments provide researchers with more control than natural field experiments this paper explores how natural field experiments can provide researchers with more control than laboratory experiments while laboratory experiments provide researchers with a high degree of control in the environment which participants agree to be experimental subjects when participants systematically opt out of laboratory experiments the researcher s ability to manipulate certain variables is limited in contrast natural field experiments bypass the participation decision altogether due to their covertness and they allow for a potentially more diverse participant pool within the market of interest

valuing life experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events global environmental phenomena like climate change major extinction events or flutype pandemics can have catastrophic consequences by properly assessing the outcomes involved especially those concerning human life economic theory of choice under uncertainty is expected to help people take the best decision however the widely used expected utility theory values life in terms of the low probability of death someone would be willing to accept in order to receive extra payment common sense and experimental evidence refute this way of valuing life and here we provide experimental evidence of people s unwillingness to accept a low probability of death contrary to expected utility predictions this work uses new axioms of choice defined by chichilnisky 2000 especially an axiom that allows extreme responses to extreme events and the choice criterion that they imply the implied decision criteria are a combination of expected utility with extreme responses and seem more consistent with observations

the new institutional economics and the theory of the firm abstract concepts of importance in the literature of the new institutional economics such as transaction costs and bounded rationality have been used to extend the standard neoclassical model of the firm but the hybrid models created have failed to provide adequate explanations of enterprise behavior an alternative neoinstitutional model of the firm is developed in the paper that differs from the pure neoclassical model and hybrid models in respect to both the nature of the solution it yields and the process by which it reaches a solution the neoinstitutional firm cannot be expected to achieve either the hypothetical allocative efficiency promised by the frictionless neoclassical model or the relatively efficient constrained pareto optimal solutions predicted by the largely frictionless hybrid models the orthodox marginal rules of neoclassicism can only be used to solve lower level problems that appear within the firm

experimental evidence on the importance of competing for profits on forecasting accuracy abstract subjects forecasts of the price of a stock were compared across two experiment conditions payments were determined by a tournament based on forecasting accuracy with the conditions differing in the number of subjects earning positive profits the results suggest that subjects who consistently lost money learned to form more accurate forecasts than others who consistently made positive profits the implications of these results for learning in markets are discussed in terms of previous research in which competition for profits was seen as continually driving participants in markets toward making better decisions

loads of green washing can behavioural economics increase willingness to pay for efficient washing machines in the uk the eu energy efficiency labelling scheme has successfully increased demand for efficient appliances by providing a prominent letter rating to consumers during their product search behavioural economics be suggests the adoption of efficient appliances could be accelerated further by i monetising efficiency ii directly communicating the link between efficiency and carbon emissions iii communicating the long term e g operational life financial and environmental impact of product choices and iv framing the information as avoided losses extra rather than gains savings this study tested these hypotheses via an online stated preference survey of 465 uk residents using actual market pricing and efficiency data for washing machines the provision of information about either running costs or running emissions did encourage selection of more expensive and efficient products strongly correlated variables in the choice set and actual market p 001 r 30 41 with no statistically significant difference between their impact providing lifetime running cost information also nudged respondents towards more expensive efficient products than annual information p 006 027 r 15 18 finally loss framed running emissions information encouraged selection of more expensive efficient products than gain framed information p 05 r 13 16 the eu label is an impracticable means of communication but digital communication channels e g price comparison websites may offer potential for inexpensive localisation and personalisation of the information the results suggest that successful communication could benefit the private sector whilst making a contribution to reducing carbon emissions

anomalies in intertemporal choice evidence and an interpretation research on decision making under uncertainly has been strongly influenced by the documentation of numerous expected utility eu anomalies behaviors that violate the expected utility axioms the relative lack of progress on the closely related topic of intertemporal choice is partly due to the absence of an analogous set of discounted utility du anomalies we enumerate a set of du anomalies analogous to the eu anomalies and propose a model that accounts for the anomalies as well as other intertemporal choice phenomena incompatible with du we discuss implications for savings behavior estimation of discount rates and choice framing effects

the discourse of bounded rationality in academic and policy arenas pathologising the errant consumer this article draws on perspectives in philosophy and the sociology of knowledge to critically review the discourse of bounded rationality within contemporary economics it is argued that the discourse pathologises consumers who are susceptible to sub optimal market outcomes treating their behaviour as abnormal and treating individuals as deviants in need of rehabilitation it is claimed that by this means new forms of policy are legitimated specifically behavioural remedies designed to draw apparently errant consumers towards behaviour that conforms more closely to the standard that is neoclassical model of decision making it is argued that the upsurge of interest in these behavioural remedies distracts attention from facets of the individual s environment such as the characteristics of markets and the behaviour of firms and also the set of norms and beliefs underpinning the economic system copyright oxford university press

the ethology of homo economicus early critics of john stuart mill attacked him for creating a monomaniacal economic man concerned only with the accumulation of money in fact mill s construct possessed a considerably richer psychology including desires for leisure luxury and sexual relations this psychology played a central role in mill s analysis of alternative institutional regimes mill also considered the social origins or ethology of preference structures mill s framework provides a useful reference point for ongoing work in comparative economics and feminist economics in particular mill s emphasis on psychological parsimony needs careful reconsideration by advocates of enriching the motives of economic man

decision making in electrical appliance use in the home this paper presents the results of a survey as well as an argument from the viewpoint of behavioral economics with the aim of clarifying how consumers make decisions about electrical appliance use in the home a survey of consumers showed that most have little awareness of the energy efficiency of appliances the price of the services produced by electrical appliances or electricity rates these findings indicate that price does not function as a signal in electricity consumption through electrical appliance use rather we found that consumer decision making in electricity consumption is dependent on the characteristics of the particular electrical appliances they use additionally we argue that the payment system for home electricity consumption plays an important role in decision making causing biases due to aspects of human psychology discussed here in terms of satisficing and heuristics payment decoupling and budgeting we conclude that decision making about electrical appliance use and electricity consumption in the home is not always rational and is affected both by the particular characteristics of appliances and the payment system for electricity consumption along with human psychology

bounded rationality and market fluctuations abstract in a model of a competitive market each firm in each period faces a planning problem caused by random changes in circumstances due to bounded rationality a firm is unable to compute costlessly and exactly its optimal output instead the firm approximates optimal output through a decision making process called a deliberation technology this technology involves a rule of thumb a costly deliberation mechanism and a random deliberation error the issue addressed by the model is how bounded rationality affects market fluctuations the first glance intuition is that fluctuations will increase since deliberation error is an added disturbance to the market however the actual effect is much more complicated and might go either way

committee decisions under alternative procedural rules an experimental study applying a new non monetary method of preference inducement committees operating with simple majority rule procedures and with closed rule procedures are studied a new method the duplicate method was used to induce preferences the results of the control experiments compare favorably to those for which monetary incentives have been used in all cases the core is a relatively accurate model of committee choice

does aid matter measuring the effect of student aid on college attendance and completion does student aid increase college attendance or simply subsidize costs for infra marginal students settling the question empirically is a challenge because aid is correlated with many characteristics that influence educational investment decisions a shift in financial aid policy that affects some youth but not others can provide an identifying source of variation in aid in 1982 congress eliminated the social security student benefit program which at its peak provided grants totaling 3 7 billion a year to one out of ten college students using the death of a parent as a proxy for social security beneficiary status i find that offering 1 000 1998 of grant aid increases educational attainment by about 0 16 years and the probability of attending college by four percentage points the elasticities of attendance and completed years of college with respect to schooling costs are 0 7 to 0 8 the evidence suggests that aid has a threshold effect a student who has crossed the hurdle of college entry with the assistance of aid is more likely to continue schooling later in life than one who has never attempted college this is consistent with a model in which there are fixed costs of college entry finally a cost benefit analysis indicates that the aid program examined by this paper was a cost effective use of government resources this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

disequilibrium economic dynamics a post schumpeterian contribution abstract adaptive economizing in a decentralized economy with alternative technologies and scarce resources leads to various kinds of locally unstable behavior economic disequilibrium is the rule in such a world and requires the presence of market mechanisms that make possible continued viability if in addition to local instability economies are also globally unstable as considerable evidence suggests then the discovery and application of new structure is essential a complete dynamic theory of economic change must therefore be based not only on conventional rationality and routinely adapting behavior but on a superior faculty which may perhaps best be called creative intelligence

the role of revenue sharing and first mover advantage in emission abatement with carbon tax and consumer environmental awareness abstract in this study we explore the role of revenue sharing and first mover advantage in manufacturer s carbon emission abatement effort and the firms profitability in a linear demand setting where the government might impose some carbon emission charges and consumers may have environmental awareness we consider a supply chain system consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer either of them can move first to offer the other firm a wholesale price contract wp or a revenue sharing contract rs which is termed as abatement level promise strategy pr and abatement level requirement strategy rq respectively our analysis shows that under both pr and rq there exists a unique abatement level maximizing the manufacturer s profit in wp and rs respectively moreover both firms incentives for abatement are perfectly aligned under pr but are misaligned under rq when the marginal abatement cost is large contrary to conventional wisdom rs does not necessarily dull the manufacturer s effort in abatement it depends on whether she possesses first mover advantage and whether consumers have environmental awareness further with consumer environmental awareness numerically or without both firms always prefer to possess first mover advantage but the system s profit under rq is smaller than that under pr numerically surprisingly whether a greater share of revenue benefits a firm depending on whether the firm possesses first mover advantage numerically finally under both rq numerically and pr rs fails to coordinate the system

do dropouts drop out too soon wealth health and happiness from compulsory schooling abstract this paper uses compulsory schooling laws to evaluate high school dropout decisions the main empirical result is that lifetime wealth increases by about 15 with an extra year of compulsory schooling students compelled to stay in school are also less likely to report being in poor health unemployed and unhappy the main conclusion is that high school aversion alone is unlikely to explain why dropouts forgo substantial gains to lifetime wealth the results are more consistent with the possibility that adolescents ignore or heavily discount future consequences when deciding to drop out of school if teenagers are myopic making school compulsory or offering incentives to stay in school may help improve lifetime outcomes

bidding behavior and decision costs in field experiments i introduction positive opportunity costs of mental effort may invalidate the predictions of traditional models of rational or hyperrational agents conlisk 1996 uses deliberation costs as a recurring theme when discussing four important reasons for incorporating bounded rationality in economic models smith and walker 1993 and smith and szidarovszky 1999 present effort models that predict individual behavior will more closely match the predictions of rational behavior theories as 1 the stakes of the decision increase and 2 the decision costs decrease smith and walker 1993 find evidence of these two effects in a comprehensive review of 31 published laboratory experiments camerer and hogarth 1999 extend smith and walker s survey by examining 74 experimental papers and find evidence in favor of the cognitive effort theory noting that higher levels of incentives have the largest effects in judgment and decision tasks p 34 although the laboratory evidence is compelling there has been little verificati on of these predictions outside the laboratory 1 the present article fills this gap by examining field data from 214 multiunit sports card auctions carried out in an active marketplace on the floor of a sports card show we auctioned four types of trading cards with book values ranging from 3 to 70 providing significant variation in the stakes of the auction our auctions also included two distinct types of subjects some auctions had sports card dealers bidding against each other whereas others had individual card collectors as the participants this variation allows us to explore the second dimension of decision cost theory do dealers who commonly participate in sports card auctions and therefore likely require less effort to bid optimally bid more rationally than nondealers our measure of rational bidding comes from multiunit auction theory which predicts strategic demand reduction in uniform price auctions 2 for each type of bidder and each type of card we measure this demand reduction behavior in the uniform price auction relative to a control the multiunit vickrey 1961 auction where bidders are predicted to fully reveal their demands our sports card data generated from sales of 428 cards with a combined book value of nearly 10 000 provide two major insights first we find that the predicted strategic behavior is considerably greater when the auctioned cards have higher values second dealers exhibit more of the predicted strategic behavior than do nondealers for both lower and higher priced cards one conjecture to explain this finding is that nondealers may find that the cognitive effort required to bid strategically exceeds the benefits especially for low valued cards by contrast dealers have more experience with auctions and make their living by buying selling trading cards so their cognitive costs are likely much lower than those of nondealers these two findings are consistent with recent theoretical models of monetary rewards and decision costs and extend previous experimental evidence from the laboratory into the field ii experimental design as mentioned recent theoretical literature has suggested that demand reduction inherent in uniform price auctions with multiunit demand can induce inefficient allocations and possible reductions in auction revenue to avoid the inefficiencies associated with the uniform price auction theorists have identified an alternative mechanism the generalized vickrey auction which gives bidders a dominant strategy of revealing their true valuations for all units of the good in this multiunit vickrey auction as in the uniform price auction each bidder can submit up to n different sealed bids on individual units and the highest n bids are declared winners if a bidder submits one or more of the winning bids his or her price for the first unit equals the highest rejected bid submitted by someone else and his or her price for the kth unit equals the kth highest of the rejected bids submitted by others

experimental tests of the separation theorem and the capital asset pricing model a computer controlled multistage portfolio selection task was devised to test experimentally basic assumptions underlying the separation theorem and the capital asset pricing model although most of the subjects diversified among the three risky assets the introduction of a riskless asset did not have the effect predicted by the separation theorem nor were the subjects affected by systematic changes in the variance covariance matrix of the risky returns however performance improved as the reward was increased tenfold the capital asset pricing model capm proposed by william sharpe 1964 john lintner 1965 and jan mossin 1966 has been the predominant normative as well as positive theory for determining assets returns and prices in financial markets the capm has a wide range of implications for various financial issues including the allocation of risky assets price predictions performance indices and market efficiency tests as well as tools for corporate finance decisions such as capital structure costs of financial sources and prices of new issues during the last decade numerous theoretical studies have examined and extended the capm a most recent development is the

payoff effects in information cascade experiments lisa r anderson i introduction this article examines payoff effects in information cascade experiments 1 cascade experiments provide a unique environment to study errors because decisions are made publicly and in sequence allowing people to learn from the decisions of others however there are no payoff interdependencies so subjects are only concerned with maximizing their own expected payoffs which cannot be directly affected by the actions of others this feature simplifies the analysis of the decision making process and makes it possible to focus more clearly on how subjects draw inferences from public decisions furthermore errors are recursive in the sense that mistakes made by initial decision makers influence the decisions of those that come later in the sequence this study focuses on learning and errors by analyzing data econometrically in a logistic error model econometric methods have gained popularity as a way to examine errors in experimental data harless and camerer 1994 present a maximum likelihood estimation method to test the predictive power of various utility theories using data from 23 different experiments mckelvey and palfrey 1995 and 1998 use the logistic structure to estimate error rates with data from a variety of games palfrey and prisbrey 1997 use a similar structure with a probit model to estimate error rates in a public goods experiment the analysis presented here differs from these previous econometric studies of experimental data in the following way in this model errors are analyzed in a sequential structure so the errors of others must be taken into account but there is no strategic element in the decision making process this study expands on the error analysis presented in anderson and holt 1997 by examining error rates under different payoff conditions smith and walker 1993a present a model of decision making in which the effort of contemplating a decision is balanced against potential gains in payoffs in addition they survey the experimental literature in economics and psychology addressing the issue of payoff effects and they find mixed results some studies report a decrease in error rates as payoffs increase others show little difference in results under payoff and no payoff treatments however there is a consensus that higher payoffs reduce the variance of decisions from the predicted outcome testing their own theory in the context of a first price auction experiment smith and walker 1993b report that the amount and severity of error decreases as payoffs increase interestingly behavior is not random even when there is no monetary reward for a correct decision using data from lottery choice experiments wilcox 1993 finds that higher monetary payoffs affect behavior in complex situations but not in relatively simple decision making environments harless and camerer 1994 use econometric methods to compare error rates in experiments with real losses to those with hypothetical losses they find that error rates are lower and variances are reduced in data with real losses this article adds to the literature on the saliency of rewards by analyzing behavior in a different experimental framework and by using the logistic model to generate econometric estimates of error rates under no payoff payoff and double payoff conditions the underlying behavioral model is an extension of the cascade model presented in bikhchandani hirshleifer and welch 1992 experimental procedures are discussed in section ii section iii discusses econometric details section iv reports results and section v concludes ii procedures 2 for each session of this experiment seven subjects were recruited from undergraduate economics courses at the university of virginia one subject was randomly chosen to be a monitor and the remaining six subjects were decision markers at the beginning of each period the monitor threw a six sided die to determine which of two urns was to be used for that period

laboratory subjects as multiproduct monopoly firms an experimental investigation abstract previous experimental research demonstrates that market responses of laboratory subjects as monopoly firms converge to theoretic predictions this research increases the complexity of market decisions facing such subjects each subject is established as a multiproduct monopoly firm capable of producing two distinct goods in this environment the seller must select a selling strategy from limited alternatives and offer prices results show that market responses of subjects are more likely to converge to multiproduct monopoly model predictions when strategy options are relatively simple or when greater rewards are present results are consistent with profit maximizing behavior

modes of economizing behavior experimental evidence abstract in addition to more or less elaborate explicity rational procedures economic choices in reality are frequently made by trial and error imitation following an authority habit thoughtless impulse and hunch presenting results from a number of experiments that explicity incorporate decision cost this paper explores the extent to which these alternative decision making modes can lead to optimal choices

an economic theory of the second moments of disturbances of behavioral equations applied econometricians have known for a long time that the smooth curves in economics texts which pretend to be the geometric representations of behavioral equations present an over simplified picture of the real world it almost never occurs that data fit a simple theoretical relation exactly and an explicit method of interpreting and handling the deviations from such relations is therefore needed in the early days of econometrics it was frequently assumed that observational errors were the only or at least the main cause of the occurrence of deviations but this idea was later rejected on the ground that even when the data are perfect deviations will continue to be found because there are very few economic agents who react exactly according to some simple mathematical law the neglected factors entered into the picture their combined influence came to be regarded as a random disturbance with zero mean and unknown variance

how does the benefit effect vary as unemployment spells lengthen summary this paper investigates how the effect of income while unemployed on the probability of an individual leaving unemployment varies with the length of time that the individual has been unemployed we examine this question in the context of a variety of alternative econometric models we extend the proportional hazards model with unrestricted baseline hazard to one in which there are unrestricted effects of a subset of the explanatory variables and also consider models that can be estimated as series of binary response models the proportional hazard restrictions are rejected for the sample of british unemployed men analysed and in the binary sequence framework logit and probit models based on symmetric distributions dominate in likelihood terms the extreme value form model implied by extension of the proportional hazards formulation logit models with a flexible form for the duration dependence which also incorporate unobserved heterogeneity in a flexible way are estimated the results for all formulations indicate a rapidly declining effect of unemployment income as a spell lengthens with no significant effect for the long term unemployed the preferred specifications which allow for omitted heterogeneity indicate no significant effect after about 5 months and this result is robust to the inclusion or exclusion of previous labour market experience variables and to the choice of mixing distribution

rewards experience and decision costs in first price auctions consistent with a model of asymmetric risk aversion subjects in first price auctions consistently bid above the risk neutral nash prediction it has been argued that this is due to low opportunity cost of deviating from the risk neutral bid we increase opportunity cost and payoff levels by factors of 0 1 5 10 and 20 from the normal levels generating payoffs up to 250 for risk neutral subjects and observe an insignificant increase in the slope of individual bid functions the rmse of bids declines significantly this is consistent with a reward decision cost model of bidding behavior

costly optimization an experiment abstract an experimental technique is developed and used to examine how human subjects make choices when optimization is costly the total cost of making a choice is defined to include two parts 1 the direct cost of making the decision and 2 the indirect cost of making a choice that is not best among the available alternatives the total cost of choice for subjects in the experimental economy ranged from 15 to 42 percent of the economy s resources the hypothesis that agents are rational on average was strongly rejected while the hypothesis that agents are rational in the long run fared better

monetary rewards and decision cost in experimental economics a survey of thirty one experimental studies which report data on the comparative effects of monetary rewards and opportunity cost shows 1 several studies in which increased rewards shift the central tendency of the data toward the predictions of rational models 2 in virtually all cases rewards reduce the variance of the data around the predicted outcome this is consistent with a model in which rewards are balanced against decision cost in agent behavior and explicates the argument that when rational models fail it can be attributed to low opportunity cost of deviations from the rational prediction

shrouded attributes consumer myopia and information suppression in competitive markets bayesian consumers infer that hidden add on prices e g the cost of ink for a printer are likely to be high prices if consumers are bayesian firms will not shroud information in equilibrium however shrouding may occur in an economy with some myopic or unaware consumers such shrouding creates an inefficiency which firms may have an incentive to eliminate by educating their competitors customers however if add ons have close substitutes a curse of debiasing arises and firms will not be able to profitably debias consumers by unshrouding add ons in equilibrium two kinds of exploitation coexist optimizing firms exploit myopic consumers through marketing schemes that shroud high priced add ons in turn sophisticated consumers exploit these marketing schemes it is not possible to profitably drive away the business of sophisticates it is also not possible to profitably lure either myopes or sophisticates to nonexploitative firms we show that informational shrouding flourishes even in highly competitive markets even in markets with costless advertising and even when the shrouding generates allocational inefficiencies

the effect of decision costs on the formation of market making intermediaries a pilot experiment abstract an economy is presented where trade is beneficial but not assumed if trade is to occur it must arise endogenously as either barter or mediated trade the role decision costs play in the development of trade is explicitly recognized the theoretical model is examined in an experimental setting by imbedding it in a computer trading game the data obtained from the experiments are used to examine the impact of decision costs on the development of trade and on the welfare of subjects in the experimental economy

theory and misbehavior of first price auctions comment glenn harrison s recent 1989 article in this review has provoked the loudest debate yet heard among experimental economists his critique of the james cox vernon smith and james walker 1983a b 1985a b 1988 henceforth csw laboratory studies of first price sealed bid auctions with independent and private values in my view raises a fundamental methodological issue that is well worth debating and the csw research program deserves further discussion in this short comment i confine myself to what i see as the most important issues and do not try to address all evidence relevant to the ongoing debate first i summarize harrison s central argument very briefly after pointing out two shortcomings in harrison s specific analysis of csw i propose a methodological reconciliation finally and with some trepidation since my own experience with the auction data is relatively slight i suggest an alternative approach to understanding the anomalies discovered by csw

acquisition of costly information an experimental study abstract i study decision making in a situation where subjects can buy information in order to uncover the initially unknown deterministic structure the majority of subjects fail to find the most economical way of choosing between two possible prospects many subjects underestimate the value of information and as a result make avoidable forecasting errors other subjects learn correctly which action is most successful under any given condition but fail to implement this knowledge efficiently they either accept errors for the sake of economizing on small amounts of information costs or they invest in redundant information the measured losses are substantial however in certain settings the fact that half of the economist subjects and one fourth of non economist subjects learn to behave optimally may be sufficient for efficient market functioning the present findings thus help to explain the near competitive outcomes observed in many experimental and actual markets

the effects of the 2006 tuition fee reform and the great recession on university student dropout behaviour in the uk abstract this paper investigates the causal effect of the great recession and a conditional effect of a tuition fee reform on the risk of students dropping out of he we use hesa data and our analysis combines duration modelling with difference in differences we find that the causal effect of the recession increases the risk of drop out especially for males a smaller and positive effect of the tuition fee reform for males whereas we observe the opposite effect for females differences in dropout behaviour are also found for high and low income groups and between different types of university and subjects studied

polices for increasing energy efficiency thirty years of experience in oecd countries energy efficiency improvement was an important phenomenon in the global energy balance over the past 30 years without energy efficiency improvements the oecd nations would have used approximately 49 more energy than was actually consumed as of 1998 this paper first reviews energy intensity trends for the major oecd nations since 1973 considering how much of the overall reduction in e gdp was due to energy efficiency improvement and how much was due to structural change the bulk of the paper examines the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in japan united states and western europe commenting on their effectiveness and energy savings impacts where possible the paper also reviews the energy efficiency policies and programs adopted in california this experience shows that well designed policies can result in substantial energy savings as demonstrated in the united states where nine specific policies and programs reduced primary energy use in 2002 by approximately 11 substantial energy savings also occurred in japan some european countries and in the electricity sector in california

willingness to pay for carbon offset certification and co benefits among high flying young adults in the uk voluntary carbon offsets represent a growing share of the carbon market as a whole and have the potential to contribute to meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and reducing anthropogenic climate change certain offset project types may also deliver co benefits including safeguarding or promoting biodiversity supporting human development and poverty reduction and enabling market and technology development in low carbon sectors these co benefits might encourage consumers to participate in the voluntary offset market depending on their effects both on consumers willingness to pay wtp for offsets and on implementation costs however the offset market is not yet sufficiently developed to give a clear indication of consumer wtp for offsets with varying attributes this exploratory stated preference study therefore uses a choice experiment to estimate wtp for certified and uncertified offsets with or without these specific co benefits in an aviation context it is to the best of our knowledge the first to do so our results suggest that uptake of voluntary offsets may be encouraged by investing in projects with co benefits and by emphasising those co benefits to consumers they also suggest that certification regimes will add value to offsets helping compensate for increased costs provided that consumers are made fully aware of them

what determines urban households willingness to pay for co2 emission reductions in turkey a contingent valuation survey abstract this paper explores turkish urban households willingness to pay wtp for co2 emission reductions expected to result from improvements in power production a face to face questionnaire with a contingent valuation cv module prepared using the double bounded dichotomous choice elicitation framework was administered to 2422 respondents representative of urban turkey a developing country with low but rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions the determinants of wtp were identified by considering not only the impact of standard socio economic factors but also the effects of environmental knowledge attitudes and behaviour the relevance of the identity of the collection agent national versus international institutions in terms of trust people have towards them and the degree of perceived participation of others in the realization of the project our study confirms the existing literature in demonstrating that wtp figures reported by young and educated people that are active on environmental issues and who also possess material security and environmental knowledge are more likely to be high however their willingness to make contributions is hampered significantly by their belief that their fellow citizens will not contribute and the general lack of trust in institutions overall this study may be taken as a call to eliminate governance related uncertainties in climate change deals

experimental investigations of errors in decision making under risk abstract many if not all of the recent theories of decision making under risk that have been developed in the light of experimentally observed violations of expected utility theory are essentially deterministic in nature yet it is clear that actual decision making contains a random or error component this paper surveys the assumptions that have been employed in previous analyses of such experimental data and tries to find better explanations both from an economic and an econometrics point of view of such errors hopefully such work will lead to a unified theory in which the stochastic component is an integral part

incentives performance and choking in darts this paper examines how within match variation in incentives affects the performance of darts players the game of darts offers an attractive naturally occurring research setting because performance can be observed at the individual level and without obscuring effects of risk considerations and behavior of others we analyze four data sets covering a total of 29 381 darts matches of professional amateur and youth players we find that amateur and youth players display a sizable performance decrease at decisive moments professional players appear less susceptible of such choking under pressure our results speak to a growing literature on the limits of increasing incentives as a recipe for better performance

experiment on entrepreneurial discovery an attempt to demonstrate the conjecture of hayek and kirzner friedrich hayek conjectured that the free enterprise system is most effective in making discoveries israel kirzner refines the conjecture as follows the availability of profit opportunities tends to evoke entrepreneurial discovery we hoped to demonstrate the conjecture in an outdoor experiment we asked subjects to transfer water from one bucket to another there were two methods of doing so an obvious method and a nonobvious and much superior method we varied the payment schedules to see if higher potential rewards would more readily evoke discovery of the superior method the hoped for demonstration was not achieved the investigation holds several lessons for those who would attempt to demonstrate the entrepreneurship conjecture investigators must make the opportunity discoverable but not obvious operationalize motivation not merely vary monetary rewards and separate entrepreneurial discovery from other types of discovery such as that had by deliberate problem solving

buybacks with costly participation abstract posted price offers and first price auctions along with the multi unit discriminatory auction extension are two widely used mechanisms for allocating conservation contracts the choice between the two typically hinges on the trade off between the posted price s simplicity and the potential revenue gains of the auction in this paper we introduce a novel mechanism that attempts to bridge the gap between the performance of posted price offers and auctions a two price and lottery schedule combines the simplicity of the former with some of the flexibility of the latter using a model that incorporates agents cognitive and information costs of bidding we analyze how the ranking of allocative efficiency and cost effectiveness between the mechanisms varies as the wedge of participation costs increases when the number of bidders is endogenously determined by participation costs bid shading associated with a lack of competition in the auction compromises its cost effectiveness vis a vis the posted price and the lottery schedule we use data from three recent buybacks for fishing licenses conducted in maryland to calibrate our model and identify conditions under which the two price schedule outperforms the other mechanisms

determinants of investor expectations and satisfaction a study with financial professionals abstract we investigate determinants of price expectations and satisfaction levels of financial professionals and students in experiments with 150 professionals and 576 students we systematically vary price paths according to the final return positive or negative and the way in which the final return is achieved upswing followed by downswing or vice versa professionals show the most optimistic price expectations and are most satisfied if assets fall in price first and then recover in addition professionals price expectations are highest after positive returns among students qualitatively similar patterns emerge but professionals price expectations are less prone to framing effects

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

additive general error models for production cost and derived demand or share systems many empirical studies of production specify a deterministic model of the firm derive the implied behavioral equations input demand or share system and then embed this system in a stochastic framework by tacking on linear error terms in contrast this paper proposes general error models gems in which the error specification is an integral part of the optimization model these models are the statistical embodiment of stigler s view that apparent observed inefficiencies reflect the investigator s ignorance of the true optimization problem additive gems are proposed and interpreted specification tests indicate that a translog additive gem is superior to the standard translog specification

the ubiquity of habits and rules under what circumstances is it necessary or convenient for an agent to rely on habits or rules this paper focuses on the types of decision situations giving rise to their use even optimization requires the deployment of rules and for this reason mainstream economics cannot legitimately ignore these questions the argument is that habits and rules are ubiquitous in human activity in a new taxonomy seven types of decision situations are considered classified according to the type of information problem involved neither neoclassical nor behavioral economics can provide a complete account of the bases of habits or rules in these cases copyright 1997 by oxford university press

social comparison and performance experimental evidence on the fair wage effort hypothesis we investigate the impact of wage comparisons for worker productivity we present three studies which all use three person gift exchange experiments consistent with akerlof and yellen s 1990 fair wage effort hypothesis we find that disadvantageous wage discrimination leads to lower efforts while advantageous wage discrimination does not increase efforts on average two studies allow us to measure wage comparison effects at the individual level we observe strongly heterogeneous wage comparison effects we also find that reactions to wage discrimination can be attributed to the underlying intentions of discrimination rather than to payoff consequences

on the external validity of laboratory tax compliance experiments i introduction laboratory methods are now widely accepted as a methodological approach in economics and increasingly they have been used to examine specific public policy issues there is much to be gained from careful laboratory experiments they offer a low cost means of testing and replicating policy innovations and they generate precise data on individual behavior thereby allowing estimation of behavioral responses importantly they allow many policy innovations to be introduced singly and exogenously in a controlled environment and as a result laboratory experiments are typically seen as having a high degree of internal validity brewer 2000 campbell and stanley 1966 shadish cook and campbell 2002 because the causal relation between variables can be properly demonstrated however as emphasized by plott 1987 using laboratory experiments can allow more general inferences regarding human behavior only when the setting implemented in the laboratory parallels what is observed in the naturally occurring world even beyond this requirement of parallelism is the need for generalizing behavioral observations from the laboratory to the field or external validity internal validity can be demonstrated through the evaluation of the design however external validity can only be verified empirically and only with respect to the specific setting being investigated this paper investigates the external validity of laboratory experiments and does so in the context of experiments on tax compliance behavior tax evasion is central to many important policy questions current estimates report the tax gap or difference between taxes owed and taxes paid in the united states to be 450 billion annually internal revenue service 2012 beyond these massive revenue losses evasion creates major misallocations in resource use when individuals alter their behavior to cheat on their taxes its presence requires that government expend resources to detect noncompliance to measure its magnitude and to penalize tax evasion evasion alters the distribution of income in arbitrary unpredictable and unfair ways and it may contribute to feelings of unjust treatment and disrespect for the law more broadly it is not possible to understand the true impact of taxation without recognizing the existence and the effects of tax evasion laboratory methods have been used to examine a wide range of policies that may affect the compliance decision policies that have not always proven amenable to either theoretical analyses or empirical analyses with field data however laboratory studies of compliance are sometimes viewed with skepticism the most common criticism is that the student subjects typically used in experiments may not be representative of taxpayers undergraduates may have little experience with filing tax returns and their economic and demographic backgrounds may differ from those of taxpayers another criticism is that the context of laboratory compliance experiments does not closely enough resemble the context in which actual compliance decisions are made as a result there is a concern that experimental results on policy innovations that rely upon student subjects in laboratory compliance experiments cannot be generalized to the population it is this issue that we examine here building on previous research we present several types of evidence on the external validity of experiments on individual compliance decisions a first question examines whether behavior of laboratory participants is replicated by behavior of individuals making a similar decision in the naturally occurring world that is do participants in laboratory experiments exhibit different patterns of behavior than individuals in a similar naturally occurring setting to answer this question we utilize a special data set from the u s internal revenue service irs assembled as part of its national research program nrp

rationality in psychology and economics the task i shall undertake here is to compare and contrast the concepts of rationality that are prevalent in psychology and economics respectively economics has almost uniformly treated human behavior as rational psychology on the other hand has always been concerned with both the irrational and the rational aspects of behavior in this paper irrationality will be mentioned only obliquely my concern is with rationality economics sometimes uses the term irrationality rather broadly e g becker 1962 and the term rationality correspondingly narrowly so as to exclude from the domain of the rational many phenomena that psychology would include in it for my purposes of comparison i will have to use the broader conception of psychology one point should be set immediately outside dispute everyone agrees that people have reasons for what they do they have motivations and they use reason well or badly to respond to these motivations and reach their goals even much or most of the behavior that is called abnormal involves the exercise of thought and reason freud was most insistent that there is method in madness that neuroses and psychoses were patients solutions not very satisfactory solutions in the long run for the problems that troubled them the assumption that actors maximize subjective expected utility economic rationality supplies only a small part of the premises in economic reasoning and that often not the essential part the remainder of the premises are auxiliary empirical assumptions about actors utilities beliefs expectations and the like making these assumptions correctly requires an empirically founded theory of choice that specifies what information decision makers use and how they actually process it this behavioral empirical base is largely lacking in contemporary economic analysis and supplying it is essential for enhancing the explanatory and predictive power of economics

men women and competition an experimental test of behavior this study reports a series of experiments that examine outcomes when agents are able to choose between a payment scheme that rewards based on absolute performance i e piece rate and a scheme that rewards based on relative performance i e a tournament we test for the presence and persistence of gender differences in performance and the rate of entry into the tournament option and whether these differences are sensitive to the structure of the tournament rewards in the winner take all wta condition only the best performer in the tournament for each round received a payment 4 50 in the graduated tournament condition the same payment 4 50 was divided among the first second and third finishers in the tournament in the wta condition men showed significantly lower forecast errors than women in addition a clear sorting effect occurs in the wta condition in early rounds of the wta condition male entrants into the tournament show significantly lower forecast errors than female tournament entrants however the difference disappears over time after controlling for forecasting skill gender did not predict entry into the tournament for the wta condition however lower forecasting skill reduced the probability of entry in the graduated tournament the situation was reversed men entered the tournament at significantly higher rates even after controlling for skill forecasting skill had no impact on the decision to enter the tournament while the average male entrant to the tournament had lower forecast errors than the average female entrant the men entered at much higher rates as a consequence men were much more likely than women to enter the tournament too frequently

forecasters as imperfect information processors experimental and survey evidence abstract one step ahead forecasts of random walks with four different variances are collected from student subjects the increasing variance creates a more complex learning environment and engenders forecasts that deviate from the rational expectation a 1 increase in the standard deviation of information released after the forecast date creates a 0 9 increase in the standard deviation of forecasts from rational expectations the effect is remarkably strong and is even stronger in survey data collected from professional forecasters one potential application is the stock market as random shocks undermine consensus and induce volatility which undermines consensus we also find that deviations from rational expectations are serially correlated

examining risk preferences under high monetary incentives experimental evidence from the people s republic of china several experimental sessions were conducted to elicit certainty equivalents for a sequence of lotteries involving real monetary outcomes the opportunity to conduct sessions in the people s republic of china afforded the ability to offer very large monetary incentives relative to subjects living costs in the highest payoff condition subjects earned three times their normal monthly revenue in the course of a two hour experiment results indicate a statistically significant impact of the level of monetary incentives on revealed risk preferences however even under extreme monetary incentives subjects demanded amounts well in excess of expected value for low probability gain prospects copyright 1992 by american economic association

investigations concerning the dynamics of consumer behavior in uncertain environments this paper reports the results of several experiments investigating dynamic consumer behavior when consumers know their incomes and prices but are uncertain about their preferences we find that they typically adopt a two step approach to locating optimal consumption bundles initially a grid search method is employed this is followed by a gradient search method an interesting phenomenon observed in many of our experiments is a tendency to consume a bundle well away from the optimum immediately after the optimum is located the effects of income and price changes are also studied

human economic choice as costly information processing abstract we develop and test a model that provides a unified account of the neural processes underlying behavior in a classical economic choice task the model describes in a stylized way brain processes engaged in evaluating information provided by the experimental stimuli and produces a consistent account of several important features of the decision process in different environments e g when the probability is specified or not ambiguous choices these features include the choices made the time to decide the error rate in choice and the patterns of neural activation the model predicts that the further two stimuli are from each other in utility space the shorter the reaction time will be fewer errors in choice will be made and less neural activation will be required to make the choice the model also predicts that choices with ambiguity can be made more quickly and will require reduced neural activation in the horizontal intra parietal sulcus than for choices with risk also everything else being equal a larger value of certainty option in the choice will induce larger neural activation and less experience on the part of the subject making choices will induce larger activation we provide experimental evidence that is consistent with these predictions

are hypothetical referenda incentive compatible a comment in a recent article in this journal cummings al 1997 offer experimental evidence rejecting the hypothesis that a hypothetical referendum is an incentive compatible mechanism for obtaining the social value of or willingness to pay for changes in the allocation of environmental goods and services while cautions in offering a blanket rejection of hypothetical referenda as a means of measuring economic values on the basis of their findings the authors do suggest that at least in experimental settings respondents appear to behave differently when real money is changing hands wheather hypothetical situations adequately mimic real market situations has been debated in the contigent valuation literature since its inception see cummings brookshire and schulze 1986 cummings et al s finding of incentive incompatibility appears to offer strong evidence for the critics of hypothetical referenda

theory and misbehavior of first price auctions recent experimental evidence appears to reject simple nash equilibrium models of bidding behavior in first price auctions the author presents a methodological critique of this evidence existing tests have concentrated on deviations of subjects from predictions in the message space of the action bid deviations the author suggests that it is more natural to evaluate subject behavior in expected payoff space he concludes that the evidence against the simple models is not significant enough to warrant their rejection copyright 1989 by american economic association

rational choice the contrast between economics and psychology rational choice the published record of a conference on economics and psychology frames the issues as a contest between economic theory and the falsifying evidence from psychology according to a third perspective that of experimental economics most standard theory provides a correct first approximation in predicting motivated behavior in laboratory experimental markets but the theory is incomplete particularly in articulating convergence processes in time and in ignoring decision cost this view has roots in the work of herbert simon and sidney siegel but it is not plainly represented in contemporary research in economic pyschology

the recovery of risk preferences from actual choices since its introduction the expected utility hypothesis has been widely used in the construction of economic models more recently attention has focused on the conditions under which it is possible in principle to recover individual investors risk preferences from their demand for assets dybvig and polemarchakis 2 this paper represents a first attempt to recover preferences operationally from data on the actual demand for assets numerous difficulties are encountered in attempting to measure preferences toward risk in a real world setting preferences are revealed through the choices of an individual but in an uncertain world these choices also depend on his expectations of future events hence an immediate problem arises in separating the influences of each on such decisions problems can also arise in measuring other variables such as wealth which influence choices because of these difficulties efforts to classify and measure an individual s risk preferences have been confined to direct assessments in hypothetical environments e g kahneman and tversky 4 and keeney and raiffa 5 pp 203 212 2 in these studies the authors assumed that stated preferences are accurate indicators of actual behavior the question remains however whether individuals actually behave in the way their assessments predict the purpose of this note is to make some progress in answering this question in it an experiment is described which infers an individual s risk preferences from his actual choices in a real world environment specifically the risk aversion of a dealer in u s government securities is assessed directly and then estimated statistically from his actual demand for bills in the weekly treasury auctions the distribution of returns used in the analysis are calculated from the forecasts made by the dealer himself in addition to introducing new procedures for measuring preferences this study provides insights into the reliability of direct assessments in predicting the actual behavior

incentive compatibility tests of choice experiment value elicitation questions abstract this paper uses laboratory experiments with induced values to address fundamental issues related to the incentive compatibility of choice experiment value elicitation questions in particular we compare two versus three option choice sets and the effect of using alternative provision rules including one where the outcome is influenced by both participant and regulator votes we find the overall proportion of choices that are inconsistent with induced preferences is rather low however there are more deviations from induced preferences for two option choice sets and for alternatives to a simple plurality vote implementation rule a multinomial probit analysis of choices in tandem with a mixed logit welfare analysis suggests there is a statistically significant but modest degree of bias towards selecting the status quo option