cliometrics and time series econometrics some theory and applications the paper discusses a range of modern time series methods that have become popular in the past 20 years and considers their usefulness for cliometrics research both in theory and via a range of applications issues such as spurious regression unit roots cointegration persistence causality structural time series methods including time varying parameter models are introduced as are the estimation and testing implications that they involve applications include a discussion of the timing and potential causes of the british industrial revolution income convergence and the long run behaviour of english real wages 1264 1913 finally some new and potentially useful developments are discussed including the mildly explosive processes graphical modelling and long memory

long run welfare under externalities in consumption leisure and production a case for happy degrowth vs unhappy growth in this paper we contribute to the debate on the relationship between growth and well being by examining an endogenous growth model where we allow for externalities in consumption leisure and production we analyze three regimes a decentralized economy where each household makes isolated choices without considering their external effects a planned economy where a myopic planner fails to recognize both leisure and consumption externalities but recognizes production externalities and a planned economy with a fully informed planner we first compare the balanced growth paths under the three regimes and then we numerically investigate the transition to the optimal balanced growth path we provide a number of findings first in a decentralized economy growth or labor or both are greater than in the regime with a fully informed planner and hence are sub optimal from a welfare standpoint second a myopic intervention which overlooks consumption and leisure externalities leads to more growth and labor than in both the decentralized and the fully informed regime third we provide a case for happy degrowth a transition to the optimal balanced growth path that is associated with downscaling of production a reduction in private consumption and an ongoing increase in leisure and well being

tax evasion financial development and inflation theory and empirical evidence abstract using a standard overlapping generations monetary production economy faced with endogenously determined tax evasion by heterogeneous agents in the economy we provide a theoretical model that indicates that both a lower higher level of financial development and a higher lower level of inflation leads to a bigger smaller shadow economy these findings are empirically tested within a panel econometric framework using data collected for 150 countries over the period 1980 2009 to enable a broad generalisation of the results the results support the developed theoretical model even after having accounted for the differences in the levels of economic development the level of institutional quality that includes different tax regimes and regulatory frameworks central bank participation in the economy as well as different macroeconomic policies

tax evasion on a social network abstract we relate tax evasion behavior to a substantial literature on social comparison in judgements taxpayers engage in tax evasion as a means to boost their expected consumption relative to others in their social network the unique nash equilibrium of the model relates optimal evasion to a bonacich measure of network centrality more central taxpayers evade more given that tax authorities are now investing heavily in big data tools that aim to construct social networks we investigate the value of acquiring network information we do this using networks that allow for celebrity taxpayers whose consumption is seen widely and who are systematically of higher wealth we show that there are pronounced returns to the initial acquisition of network information especially in the presence of celebrity taxpayers

tests for parameter instability in regressions with i 1 processes this article derives the large sample distributions of lagrange multiplier lm tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models the fully modified estimator of phillips and hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends the test statistics considered include the supf test of quandt as well as the lm tests of nyblom and of nabeya and tanaka it is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes that is if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends the distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent it is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered an unstable intercept so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration the tests are applied to three data se

factor models and time varying parameter framework for forecasting exchange rates and inflation a survey a survey of models used for forecasting exchange rates and inflation reveals that the factor based and time varying parameter or state space models generate superior forecasts relative to all other models this survey also finds that models based on taylor rule and portfolio balance theory have moderate predictive power for forecasting exchange rates the evidence on the use of bayesian model averaging approach in forecasting exchange rates reveals limited predictive power but strong support for forecasting inflation overall the evidence overwhelmingly points to the context of the forecasts relevance of the historical data data transformation choice of the benchmark selected time horizons sample period and forecast evaluation methods as the crucial elements in selecting forecasting models for exchange rate and inflation

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

the asymmetric effect of endowments on vertical intra industrial trade este articulo trata de analizar los determinantes del comercio intra industrial vertical en espana con una muestra de paises extensa se contrasta empiricamente la hipotesis de la ventaja comparativa con esta finalidad hemos construido series de capital fisico humano y tecnologico en media cuando se utiliza la estimacion mco las diferencias en dotaciones suponen una limitacion al comercio intra industrial vertical usando la tecnica de regresion por cuantiles se observa que este efecto negativo disminuye en terminos absolutos a medida que los flujos de comercio intra industrial vertical se incrementan y en algunos casos llegan a ser positivos en los cuantiles altos de la distribucion este resultado ofrece evidencia a favor de una version reducida de la hipotesis de la ventaja comparativa

exchange rates and fundamentals under adaptive learning abstract this paper studies a monetary model that is standard in all respects except that market participants have incomplete knowledge about the economic structure and employ adaptive learning rules to learn about the economic environment market participants also must contend with unannounced regime shifts simulation results suggest that the models under adaptive learning especially constant gain learning combined with a structural change dominate the alternative specifications of expectations in their ability to account for why fundamentals predict exchange rate returns over long horizons but not over short horizons and for generating excessively volatile returns and persistent deviations of the exchange rate from the monetary fundamentals

new evidence on the monetary approach of exchange rate determination in mexico 1994 2007 a cointegrated svar model abstract we provide empirical evidence supporting the validity of both short and long run versions of the monetary approach of exchange rate determination for the mexican peso u s dollar exchange rate from 1994 to 2007 using a cointegrated svar model we estimate not only the long run relationship between the variables of the monetary model for the exchange rate but also the very short run effects which have been often ignored in previous empirical work we show that there are robust short and long run relationships between the mexican monetary aggregates and the exchange rate which ultimately responds to what bilson s variant of maer predicts

purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data abstract this paper reports the results of unit root tests for real exchange rates using a panel framework this panel approach provides greatly improved power compared to conventional univariate time series unit root tests we obtain evidence supporting ppp over the recent flexible exchange rate period for g 6 and oecd countries we show explicitly that failure to find such evidence in previous research was due to the low power of the tests

unconventional policies and exchange rate dynamics abstract we study exchange rate dynamics under cooperative and self oriented policies in a two country dsge model with unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies the cooperative solution features a large exchange rate adjustment that cushions the impact of negative shocks and a moderate use of unconventional policy instruments self oriented policies nash equilibrium however entail limited exchange rate movements and an aggressive use of unconventional policies in both countries our results suggest that sizable exchange rate depreciations are not always a symptom of beggar thy neighbor policies they could also reflect a desirable process of external adjustment that improves global welfare

testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination new evidence from a century of data abstract we test the long run monetary model of exchange rate determination for a collection of 14 industrialized countries using data spanning the late nineteenth or early twentieth century to the late twentieth century interestingly we find support for a simple form of the long run monetary model in over half of the countries we consider for these countries we estimate vector error correction models to investigate the adjustment process to the long run monetary equilibrium in the spirit of meese and rogoff journal of international economics 14 1983 3 24 we also compare nominal exchange rate forecasts based on monetary fundamentals to those based on a naive random walk model

money stock versus monetary base in time frequency exchange rate determination abstract this study uses a time frequency analysis to provide empirical evidence of the changing role of the money supply in the determination of the japanese yen u s dollar exchange rate we demonstrate that in the short run money supply has a stable significant effect on the exchange rate only after the introduction of quantitative easing policies together with a remarkable difference between the money stock and the monetary base under quantitative easing policies while money stock has a limited role at best in short run exchange rate dynamics increases in the monetary base cause the currency to depreciate in the short run the notable role of the monetary base remains exceptionally stable over time only in quantitative easing regimes while the exchange rate is unstably connected to other fundamentals moreover in the long run the monetary base outperforms the money stock in explaining the exchange rate in general lastly the growing role of the monetary base is shown to be robust to several checks

fundamentals and exchange rate prediction revisited this paper measures latent fundamental exchange rates with independent component based rates constructed from a cross section of exchange rates and then uses their deviations from exchange rates to forecast empirical results indicate that the independent component based model and its taylor rule and purchasing power parity augmented models are superior to the random walk in predicting exchange rates these results are robust to several scenarios and are likely to be observed if the us sources and the recursive scheme are applied our results reveal that information regarding the third moment of exchange rate changes is helpful to explain exchange rate movements

on the predictive power of monetary exchange rate model the case of the malaysian ringgit us dollar rate the predictive power of the monetary model for the malaysian ringgit us dollar rm usd rate is analysed using quarterly data ending in 2006 q3 we find compelling evidence of a long run relationship between exchange rates and the economic fundamental determinant macroeconomic factors systematically affect the long run movement of the rm usd rate additionally the rm usd rate was overvalued by about 10 several quarters before the 1997 crisis after the crisis rates fluctuated close to the equilibrium value the out of sample forecasts demonstrate that the monetary model outperforms the naive random walk model the monetary and purchasing power parity ppp models do well at the four to eight quarters horizon

are real exchange rates nonstationary evidence from a panel data test it is well documented that real exchange rates between the united states and many industrialized countries in the post bretton woods period are integrated this result implies that purchasing power parity ppp does not hold even as a long run relationship this paper demonstrates that the failure to reject the unit root hypothesis may result from the low power of existing univariate test procedures i test for unit roots in real exchange rates by employing a more powerful panel based procedure using both cpi and wpi real dollar exchange rate data i strongly reject the null hypothesis of a unit root my results provide overwhelming support for the long run ppp under the current float copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

choosing the joneses endogenous goals and reference standards a growing economic literature stresses the importance of relative comparisons e g for savings and consumption or happiness in this literature it is usually assumed that reference standards against which people compare themselves are exogenously given in contrast findings from social psychology suggest that people play an active role in determining their reference standards we introduce a social comparison model where people choose their reference standards to serve motives of self improvement and self enhancement the model predicts that reference standards increase in individuals abilities and that people thus tend to compare themselves to similar others the results of a questionnaire study confirm the prediction of the model

relativity mobility and optimal nonlinear income taxation in an open economy abstract recent evidence suggests that globalization has reduced the barriers to international labor mobility and induced more cross country social comparisons in an open economy with tax driven migration and consumption externalities relativity we derive an optimal tax formula that subsumes existing ones obtained under a maximin social objective and additively separable utility and sign the second best mirrleesian marginal tax rates for all skill levels we establish the thresholds of the elasticity and level of migration to determine when relativity and inequality act as complements or substitutes in shaping the optimal top tax rate under both nash and stackelberg tax competition if the migration probability of top income workers is approximately 50 numerical calculation using parameter estimates from empirical studies shows that the country with labor inflow outflow implements over 10 lower higher marginal tax rates than suggested by the autarky equilibrium of kanbur and tuomala 2013

intraindustry specialization in production and trade in newly industrializing countries a conceptual framework and some empirical evidence from east asia abstract this paper argues that as newly industrializing countries continue on a path of industrialization led growth and development their pattern of manufacturing production and trade specialization tends to resemble that of the industrial countries consequently the importance of intraindustry specialization in production and trade in certain manufactures increases in newly industrializing countries this hypothesis is tested in the analysis of intraindustry trade in manufactures of east asian newly industrializing countries as expected the economic development and industrial growth of these countries is accompanied by growth in intraindustry trade in manufactures a substantial proportion of this trade is with industrial countries

the failure of the monetary model of exchange rate determination in this paper we test three popular versions of the monetary model flexible price forward looking and real interest differential models for the oecd member countries by applying johansen cointegration technique based on country by country analysis we conclude that monetary models do not provide the expected results we reveal several shortcomings of the models and examine the building blocks of the fundamental version although researchers always blame the deviations from purchasing power parity as the reason for the failure of the monetary model our analysis indicates that invalidity of keynesian money demand function is also responsible for unfavourable results

social comparisons and optimal taxation in a small open economy in this paper we analyze how international capital mobility affects the optimal labor and capital income tax policy in a small open economy when consumers care about relative consumption the main

social comparisons of wage increases and job satisfaction abstractwe combine status quo and social comparison considerations and investigate whether relative wage increases in the sense of differences between individual wage increases and wage increases of comparable employees are related to managers job satisfaction using a panel data set of managers in the german chemical industry we indeed find first evidence the relation between relative wage increases and job satisfaction is relevant for managers with lower absolute wage levels in particular

the integration of major fuel source markets in china evidence from panel cointegration tests abstract the paper tests for energy price co movement in china over the new regime as part of a strategy to test for the existence of a national energy market panel cointegration test statistics suggest that not all energy commodities are spatially homogenous in prices and the processes of energy price cointegration are different over time and over groups of fuels the statistics demonstrate china s gradual spatially partial and idiosyncratic energy reform process coal and electricity price series have co moved since 2003 while the national panel cointegration test statistics suggest that gasoline and diesel price series have co moved since 1997 regional panel tests also show that there are apparently differences in the emergence of energy price co movement this suggests that regional energy markets have emerged in china one of the important lessons of the research is that an energy market has to some extent already emerged in china and as a consequence energy prices are much less distorted than previously if correct this fact is of major global significance both in terms of future environmental effects and future trade and investment negotiations as china is seen internationally as a market driven economy

conspicuous consumption and political regimes evidence from east and west germany abstract this paper investigates the influence of political regimes on the relative importance of conspicuous consumption we use the division of germany into the communist gdr and the democratic frg and its reunification in 1990 as a natural experiment relying on household data that are representative for germany our empirical results strongly indicate that conspicuous consumption is relatively more important in east germany significantly although we find some convergence a considerable gap in conspicuous consumption expenditures remains even 18 years after the german reunification

testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination a closer look at panels abstract in this paper we undertake an extensive evaluation of panel tests of the long run monetary model of exchange rate determination we first show how poorly the monetary model performs on a country by country basis for us dollar exchange rates over the post bretton woods period for a large number of industrialized countries in sharp contrast we find considerable support for the monetary model using panel procedures as in groen 2000 and mark and sul 2001 given the disparity in the country by country and panel approaches we carefully analyze the homogeneity restrictions inherent in the panel procedures the evidence on the appropriateness of the homogeneity restrictions is mixed in the end whether the monetary model conforms to post bretton woods data largely depends on one s prior beliefs

vertical and horizontal intra industry trade a cross industry analysis for the united kingdom a large theoretical literature has emerged directed at explaining the presence of intra industry trade iit one of the distinctions which comes out of these models is that between horizontal iit where goods are differentiated by attributes and vertical iit where goods are differentiated by quality in this paper horizontal and vertical iit in u k trade are disentangled using a unit value dispersion criterion and a range of industry characteristics the paper not only points up the relative importance of vertical and horizontal iit in the united kingdom it also demonstrates how a failure to separate them out can impact on the interpretation of empirical results copyright 1995 by royal economic society

testing for bubbles in exchange markets a case of sparkling rates this paper investigates the possibility that the observed deviations of major bilateral exchange rates from values implied by market fundamentals are a consequence of rational asset market bubbles when a new econometric methodology for detecting asset market bubbles is used the joint hypothesis of no bubbles and stable autoregressive processes for relative money supplies and real incomes is rejected for the dollar deutsche mark and dollar pound ratesusing monthly data over the period 1973 82 additional tests for coefficient stability and for lack of cointegration between exchange rates and market fundamentals suggest that the bubble findings must be interpreted with care

the monetary exchange rate model as a long run phenomenon abstract pure time series based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models in this paper we apply pooled time series estimation on a forward looking monetary model resulting in parameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlying theory based on a panel version of the engle and granger engle r f granger c w j 1987 co integration and error correction representation estimation and testing econometrica 55 251 276 two step procedure we find that the residuals of the panel based estimated monetary model are stationary this indicates that on a pooled time series level there is cointegration between the exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals of this monetary model

relative income effects on subjective well being in the cross section abstract recent work suggests that a person s subjective well being swb depends to a large degree on relative income focusing on the underlying identification this paper makes four contributions to this literature it describes the aggregation problem with past studies implements an estimation strategy to overcome this problem finds micro level evidence in support of the hypothesis that relative income does matter in individual assessments of swb and uses cross section estimates to replicate the aggregate time series the evidence further indicates that relative income effects may be smaller at low income levels the results are obtained from ordered probit techniques and the general social survey gss

the link between life insurance activities and economic growth some new evidence abstract this paper applies the panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented dickey fuller suradf test to re investigate the stationarity properties of real life insurance premiums per capita and real gross domestic product gdp per capita for 41 countries within three levels of income covering 1979 2007 our empirical results first reveal that the variables in these countries are a mixture of i 0 and i 1 processes and that the traditional panel unit root tests could lead to misleading inferences second for the estimated half lives the degrees of mean reversion are greater in high income countries third there is concrete evidence favoring the hypothesis of a long run equilibrium relationship between real gdp and real life insurance premiums after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run estimated panel parameter results indicate that a 1 increase in the real life premium raises real gdp by 0 06 finally we determine that the development of life insurance markets and economic growth exhibit long run and short run bidirectional causalities these findings offer several useful insights for policy makers and researchers

exchange rate predictability the main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question does anything forecast exchange rates and if so which variables it is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model the meese and rogoff puzzle however the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle this article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up to date thorough empirical analysis overall our analysis of the literature and the data suggests that the answer to the question are exchange rates predictable is it depends on the choice of predictor forecast horizon sample period model and forecast evaluation method predictability is most apparent when one or more of the following hold the predictors are taylor rule or net foreign assets the model is linear and a small number of parameters are estimated the toughest benchmark is the random walk without drift

job satisfaction and co worker wages status or signal we use matched employer employee panel data to show that individual job satisfaction is higher when other workers in the same establishment are better paid this runs counter to substantial existing evidence of income comparisons in subjective well being we argue that the difference hinges on the nature of the reference group we here use co workers their earnings not only induce jealousy but also provide a signal about the worker s own future earnings in our data this positive future earnings signal outweighs any negative status effect this phenomenon is stronger for men and in the private sector but weaker for those nearer retirement

when information dominates comparison abstract we propose a micro econometric evaluation of the relation between life satisfaction and income distribution using a balanced panel survey of the russian population russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms running from 1994 to 2000 covering 4685 individuals we show that in the context of the very volatile russian environment hirschman s q j econ 87 1973 544 tunnel effect conjecture seems to be confirmed variables reflecting income distribution do not influence satisfaction through social comparisons individuals rather seem to use their informational content in order to form their expectations the reference group s income thereby exerts a positive influence on individual satisfaction which contrasts with other studies on the subject inequality indices do not affect individual welfare

uncovering the link between a flexible exchange rate and fundamentals the case of central and eastern european economies this article examines the link between a nominal exchange rate and macrofundamentals in central and eastern european cee countries we use the model based on the monetary policy rule as a theoret

intra industry trade with multinational firms recent developments including the analysis of firm level adjustment to falling trade costs have contributed to a revival of interest in intra industry trade iit most empirical work still relies on the standard grubel lloyd measure this however refers only to international trade disregarding income flows stimulated by repatriated profits of multinational firms given the overwhelming importance of the latter this is a major shortcoming this paper provides a guide to measurement and estimation of the determinants of bilateral iit shares from the perspective of new trade theory with multinational firms we develop an analytically solvable general equilibrium model to investigate the impact of investment costs multinational activities and income flows from repatriated profits we also discuss and quantify the bias of the grubel lloyd index associated with repatriated profit flows of multinationals using bias corrected versions of the grubel lloyd index as the dependent variable we demonstrate that the determinants motivated by our theoretical analysis offer important insights into variations in iit shares

cointegration how short is the long run abstract when testing for cointegration and faced with short sample periods it is common for researchers to turn to more frequently sampled observations that is to move from annual to quarterly or monthly data in order to increase the number of observations we argue that such a gain in the degrees of freedom is more apparent than real essentially cointegration is a long run concept and hence requires long spans of data to give tests for cointegration much power rather than merely large numbers of observations using monte carlo simulations we demonstrate this for four popular tests for cointegration

engineering an incentive to search for work a comparison groups approach social comparisons are important in the employment sphere a culture of unemployment may evolve and prevail because it is optimal for an individual to remain unemployed when other unemployed individuals constitute his main reference group we advance the idea that by making the receipt of unemployment benefits conditional on engagement in an incentive enhancing activity for example work under state sponsored employment schemes or participation in work site based training programs a government can engineer a revision of the reference groups of an unemployed individual in order to induce him to seek work

clean evidence on peer effects we study subjects who were asked to fill letters into envelopes with a remuneration independent of output in the pair treatment two subjects worked at the same time in the same room and peer effects were possible in the single treatment subjects worked alone and peer effects were ruled out we find evidence of peer effects in the pair treatment because the standard deviations of output are smaller within pairs than between pairs moreover average output is higher in the pair treatment thus peer effects raise productivity finally low productivity workers are the most sensitive to the behavior of peers

does the euro follow the german mark evidence from the monetary model of the exchange rate abstract this paper investigates whether german or synthetic european pre emu data provides the appropriate empirical basis for evaluating euro dollar exchange rate behavior monetary exchange rate equations are estimated for both data sets over the pre emu period and out of sample forecasts are evaluated to assess their ability to explain the euro dollar exchange rate from 1999 to 2004 while forecast accuracy tests confirm the usefulness of synthetic european data for euro exchange rate analysis forecasts based on the german pre emu experience cannot even beat a random walk our results indicate that the euro does not simply follow the german mark but that it has its origins in the other pre emu currencies as well

hedonic recall bias why you should not ask people how much they earn abstract the empirical literature which explores the effect of wage on job satisfaction typically uses data drawn from social surveys in these surveys the amount of wage is reported by the respondents themselves thus the explanatory variable of the econometric models may differ from the true wage people earn our paper shows that the use of survey data can lead to considerable over estimation of the importance of wage as a determinant of wage satisfaction in particular responses seem to be affected by a recall bias people who are satisfied with their wage are more likely to over report their wage in questionnaires the more satisfied they are the more they over report and vice versa unsatisfied people we name this behavioral disposition hedonic recall bias

co integration tests for long run equilibrium in the monetary exchange rate model abstract the monetary model of exchange rate determination is tested as a long run equilibrium relation tests of co integration among the variables in this model over a wide range of specifications are generally unfavorable to the monetary approach

dynamic status effects savings and income inequality this paper advances the hypothesis that the intensity of status preferences depends negatively on the average wealth of society endogenous dynamic status effect in accordance with empirical evidence our theory replicates the contradictory historical facts of an increasing saving rate along with declining returns to capital over time by affecting the dynamics of the saving rate the dynamic status effect raises inequality thereby providing a behavioural mechanism for the observed diverse dynamics of income inequality across countries in countries in which the dynamic status effect is strong weak inequality rises declines over time in response to a positive productivity shock

innovation and trade performance in the united kingdom a popular explanation for the u k s poor trade performance in the postwar period is that insufficient attention was paid to the quality of goods offered to consumers the authors explore the role of both price and quality factors in determining the net trade balances of a number of u k manufacturing and service industries particular attention is paid to the role of innovation used empirically as a proxy for product improvement the findings show considerable support for the view that an advanced industrial country like britain needs to continually upgrade its products to avoid erosion of its domestic and international market shares

japanese monetary policy and international spillovers abstract we present a simple monetary model with sticky prices to highlight spillovers to output gaps we then show using a sequence of nonstructural vars and a global var the effects of monetary policies measured using short term interest rates and money base stocks we conclude that money base expansions in particular have generally positive output effects both within and across borders

endogenous aspirations growth and the rise of environmental concerns abstract in this paper we analyze the implications of assuming that the intensity of aspirations is endogenous in accordance with empirical evidence consumption aspirations decrease with capital accumulation while environmental ones increase we show that such a change in the intensity of aspirations gives rise to a u shaped relationship between capital accumulation and environmental quality we also study the implications of our assumption concerning the optimal allocation and show that the steady state capital stock can be larger or smaller than the one corresponding to the modified golden rule in addition for realistic parameter values the decentralization of the optimal allocation requires the implementation of a maintenance investment subsidy and a lump sum transfer from the old to the young generation

a panel project on purchasing power parity mean reversion within and between countries abstract previous time series studies have shown evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates deviations from purchasing power parity ppp appear to have half lives of approximately four years however the long samples required for statistical significance are unavailable for most currencies and are potentially inappropriate because of regime changes in this study we re examine deviations from ppp using a panel of 150 countries and 45 annual post wwii observations our panel shows strong evidence of mean reversion that is similar to that from long time series ppp deviations are eroded at a rate of approximately 15 annually i e their half life is around four years such findings can be masked in time series data but are relatively easy to find in cross sections

caste comparisons in india evidence from subjective well being data this paper evaluates how caste influences economic comparisons in india using happiness data from an original panel survey we find that both within caste comparisons and between caste comparisons reduce well being between caste comparisons reduce well being three times more than within caste comparisons in absolute terms an increase in rival caste expenditures affects well being as much as primary expenditure these findings highlight the strong influence that comparisons between rival castes have on well being yet this comparison scheme turns out to be asymmetrical only low caste individuals are affected by the economic successes of their rivals whereas only higher caste individuals compete with their fellows

relative pay and labor supply we examine the impact of relative wages on labor supply in a laboratory experiment we test the hypothesis that ceteris paribus making a given wage high low relative to other wage levels will lead to an increase decrease in labor supply we find that labor supply does respond significantly to relative pay and in the expected direction however when a strong enough reason for the relative low pay is given this difference disappears

merit pay and wage compression with productivity differences and uncertainty abstract this paper experimentally investigates wage setting and effort choices in a multi worker setting when there is heterogeneity in worker productivity and managers perception of this productivity is imperfect worker ability is assigned via an aptitude test and in an innovative design manager uncertainty concerning this ability is related to the manager s own test performance we propose a merit pay hypothesis that higher ability workers will reduce their effort if they are not paid more than coworkers with lower ability but not vice versa based on a simple model we also predict that the higher the uncertainty about employee ability levels the more managers compress wages between perceived high and low ability workers we find strong experimental support for both hypotheses

comparing with the average reference points and market reactions to above average earnings surprises abstract we examine whether the average earnings surprises announced yesterday affect investors responses to earnings news announced today we find that in the short window surrounding an earnings announcement the market rewards today s earnings news that is above yesterday s average earnings surprises with a premium consistent with yesterday s average becoming a reference point for investors to classify today s earnings news as a gain or a loss the price premium for an above average earnings surprise is larger when more earnings announcements are made on the same day and when investors face greater uncertainty in assessing firms performance we interpret this evidence as suggesting that investors rely more on the average as a reference point when they are more likely to be subject to cognitive constraints in processing information we also find that firms announcing above average earnings surprises exhibit a greater abnormal trading volume consistent with the notion that beating reference points prompts investors to trade

the failure of the monetary exchange rate model for the canadian u s dollar in this paper the validity of the monetary exchange rate model in the long run for the canadian u s dollar exchange rate is examined the primary test employed is the johansen 1991 and johansen and juselius 1990 cointegration technique the effects of dummy variables and lag specification on the statistical inference are considered and monte carlo simulations based on the estimated parameters are employed despite the use of the longest data set yet for the canadian case no evidence is found in favour of the monetary exchange rate model using the johansen procedures this result is confirmed by several other cointegration procedures jel classification f31 f41 la faillite du modele monetaire du taux de change pour les dollars canadien et americain ce memoire examine le modele monetaire du taux de change pour savoir s il est valide par l experience canado americaine en longue periode le test principal utilise est la technique de cointegration de johansen 1991 et johansen et juselius 1990 les effets des variables fictives et de la specification de la structure de delais sur l inference statistique sont consideres et on utilise des simulations de monte carlo fondees sur les parametres calibres malgre le fait qu on fait appel a la plus longue serie chronologique utilisee dans ce type d analyse a ce jour on ne trouve aucun support du modele monetaire du taux de change en utilisant les procedures de johansen ce resultat est confirme par l utilisation de plusieurs autres procedures de cointegration

social comparison and performance experimental evidence on the fair wage effort hypothesis we investigate the impact of wage comparisons for worker productivity we present three studies which all use three person gift exchange experiments consistent with akerlof and yellen s 1990 fair wage effort hypothesis we find that disadvantageous wage discrimination leads to lower efforts while advantageous wage discrimination does not increase efforts on average two studies allow us to measure wage comparison effects at the individual level we observe strongly heterogeneous wage comparison effects we also find that reactions to wage discrimination can be attributed to the underlying intentions of discrimination rather than to payoff consequences

income redistribution going awry the reversal power of the concern for relative deprivation abstract we demonstrate that a rank preserving transfer from a richer individual to a poorer individual can exacerbate income inequality when inequality is measured by the gini coefficient this happens when individuals preferences depend negatively not only on work time effort but also on low relative income it is rigorously shown that the set of preference profiles that gives rise to this perverse effect of a transfer on inequality is a non empty open subset of all preference profiles a robust example illustrates this result

relative consumption of housing marginal saving subsidies and income taxes as a second best policy this paper analyzes whether marginal taxation of labor and capital income are useful second best instruments for internalizing the externalities caused by conspicuous housing consumption when the

who compares to whom the anatomy of income comparisons in europe this article provides unprecedented direct evidence from large scale survey data on both the intensity how much and direction to whom of income comparisons income comparisons are considered to be at least somewhat important by three quarters of europeans they are associated with both lower levels of subjective well being and a greater demand for income redistribution the rich compare less and are happier than average when they do which latter is consistent with relative income theory with respect to the direction of comparisons colleagues are the most frequently cited reference group those who compare to colleagues are happier than those who compare to other benchmarks

exchange rate predictability and monetary fundamentals in a small multi country panel in this paper a panel of vector error correction models based on a common long run relationship is utilized to test whether the euro exchange rates of canada japan and the united states have a long run link with monetary fundamentals we use both exchange relationships relative to the full emu area with synthetic aggregates for the pre emu period and relative to germany solely compared to existing cointegration frameworks our approach provides more evidence that the aforementioned exchange rates are consistent with a rational expectations based monetary exchange rate model based on a common long run relationship albeit with a long run impact of relative income that is higher than predicted by the theory as a next step we analyze the out of sample fit of this common long run exchange rate model relative to naive random walk based forecasts these forecasting evaluations indicate that the monetary fundamentals based common longrun model is superior to both random walk based forecasts and standard cointegrated var model based forecasts especially at horizons of 2 to 4 years

on the measurement of intra industry trade countries or more specifically newly industrialising countries increased in importance as exporters of manufactures over this period some 6o of the overall expansion of trade in manufactures comprised trade within western europe and north america a phenomenon which appears to have increased in importance as a consequence of the growth of trade between manufacturing nations is intra industry trade i e the simultaneous import and export of commodities classified in the same industry or product group although there are considerable difficulties associated with the computation of a meaningful summary statistic of the importance of intra industry trade relative to total trade a substantial amount of evidence now exists to suggest that intra industry trade has increased in importance to the point where it may account for in excess of 6o of total trade in most developed market economies 2 intra industry trade is important for at least two reasons first accurate measurement of pure intra industry trade can give some indication of the importance of determinants of international exchange other than relative factor proportions recent work has for example emphasised the role of preference diversity and decreasing costs despite attempts to generalise the heckscherohlin model neither of these factors can be comfortably accommodated consequently the heckscher ohlin postulate that countries specialise in and export commodities which use their abundant factor intensively is of little value in explaining intra industry exchange secondly there is a possibility that adjustment to trade expansion may be easier when the expansion takes the form of an increase in intra as opposed to inter industry exchange 3 in order to explore either of these issues empirically or to test any of the models of intraindustry exchange which have emerged in recent years 4 intra industry trade has to be measured as accurately as possible the principal complication with measurement is the unknown influence of categorical aggregation this paper discusses alternative approaches to assessing the influence of categorical aggre

categorical aggregation and international trade a comment the central issue of the literature on intra industry trade iit is the extent to which iit is a substantive phenomenon or a statistical artefact due to aggregation greenaway and milner hereafter gm have recently proposed an adjusted index of iit to shed new light on categorical aggregation and they contrast this index with the widely adopted procedure of disaggregating the standard iit index the contrast is a false one gm s disaggregated treatment of the standard index is not the method adopted by the cited earlier studies while gm s adjusted index is the one which these writers did in fact use the usual definition of iit is xj m2 i xj amj where xj and mj are exports and imports of thejth industry for comparability this is conventionally stated as a percentage of total trade

taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies abstract this study demonstrates the relationship between exchange rate determination and an endogenous monetary policy represented by taylor rules we fill a gap in the literature by focusing on a group of fifteen emerging economies that adopted free floating exchange rates and inflation targeting beginning in the mid 1990s because of the limited span of the time series which is a common obstacle to studying emerging economies we employ panel data regressions to produce more efficient estimates following the recent literature we use a robust set of out of sample statistics incorporating bootstrapped and asymptotic distributions for the diebold mariano statistic the clark and west statistic and theil s u ratio by evaluating different specifications for the taylor rule exchange rate model based on their out of sample performances we find that a present value forward looking specification shows strong evidence of exchange rate predictability

the monetary model of the exchange rate long run relationships short run dynamics and how to beat a random walk abstract the monetary model is re examined for the sterling dollar exchange rate first it is demonstrated using a multivariate cointegration technique that an unrestricted monetary model is a valid framework for analyzing the long run exchange rate second we find once proper account has been taken of the short run data dynamics that an unrestricted monetary model outperforms the random walk and other models in an out of sample forecasting contest jel f31

relative concerns for consumption at the top an intertemporal analysis for the uk abstract this paper investigates whether the consumption of rich households provides a reference point in the intertemporal consumption choices of non rich households using uk household data on food consumption we estimate the euler equation implied by a life cycle model incorporating relative concerns for the consumption of rich households according to both our ols and gmm estimates for the population of non rich households as a whole there is no evidence of such relative concerns we also examine an alternative model of relative concerns in which households overconsume when exposed to higher reference group consumption and find correlational evidence that this may be the case for food consumed away from home finally we investigate the presence of heterogeneous relative concerns across county and household characteristics in both models finding evidence of relative concerns for consumption at the top in counties with relatively low income inequality this mechanism seems to operate for food consumed away from home

searching for stationarity purchasing power parity under the current float abstract using panel data methods we investigate long run purchasing power parity by testing for unit roots in real exchange rates of industrial countries under the current float the evidence against the unit root hypothesis is stronger for larger than for smaller panels for monthly than for quarterly data and when the german mark rather than the united states dollar is used as the base currency while we find that accounting for serial correlation considerably weakens the evidence against the unit root null the results as a whole are consistent with long run purchasing power parity

genuine saving and positional externalities much evidence suggests that people are concerned with their relative consumption yet positional externalities have so far been ignored in savings based indicators of sustainable development this

conspicuous leisure optimal income taxation when both relative consumption and relative leisure matter previous studies on public policy under relative consumption concerns have ignored the role of leisure comparisons this paper considers a two type optimal nonlinear income tax model where people care both about their relative consumption and their relative leisure increased consumption positionality typically implies higher marginal income tax rates for both the high ability and the low ability type whereas leisure positionality has an offsetting role however this offsetting role is not symmetric concern about relative leisure implies a progressive income tax component i e a component that is larger for the high ability than for the low ability type moreover leisure positionality does not modify the policy rule for public good provision when the income tax is optimally chosen

a new poolability test for cointegrated panels this paper proposes a new test of the null hypothesis that the parameters in a cointegrated panel data regression are equal across the cross section the asymptotic distribution of the new test statistic is derived and simulation results are provided to suggest that it performs very well in small samples an empirical application to the monetary exchange rate model is also provided copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

reign in hell or serve in heaven a cross country journey into the relative vs absolute perceptions of wellbeing abstract questionnaires exploring the relativist vs absolutist perception of wellbeing are administered to 3883 students in eight different countries four low income countries bolivia brazil kenya and laos 1924 respondents and four high income countries italy sweden switzerland and the uk 1959 respondents our data reveal that wellbeing is perceived mainly in relative terms with the strength of relativism being higher for respondents in high income countries however when the satisfaction of some basic needs is at stake the absolutist concern becomes powerful personal characteristics such as gender and background of studies have a significant role in determining respondents perception of wellbeing finally additional insights emerge from our study interpersonal comparisons take place by looking both upward and downward along the income scale not only income ranking but also the magnitude of reference incomes plays a role and the perception of wellbeing is more elastic to absolute rather than relative income

testing for cointegration power versus frequency of observation further monte carlo results abstract this paper studies the effects of increasing the frequency of observation and the data span on the johansen cointegration tests the ability of the tests to detect cointegration depends more on the total sample length than the number of observations

testing the canonical model of exchange rates with unobservable fundamentals in this paper the authors test the asset market approach or canonical model of exchange rates they treat exchange rate fundamentals as unobservable the empirical results do not reject the canonical model and therefore the embedded rational expectations assumption in sharp contrast with previous empirical evidence the authors also find evidence of feedback from the exchange rate to fundamentals which is normally omitted in the theoretical literature copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

domestic tourism demand of urban and rural residents in china does relative income matter abstract the aim of this research is to investigate the domestic tourism demand of urban and rural residents in china based on the data from the national household tourism survey we specify chinese domestic tourism demand as a function of absolute income relative income domestic tourism price and substitute price as a major contribution of this study relative income is measured using the distance between individual income and average income over a city province based on the estimation results from multilevel models this paper highlights the effect of relative income on domestic tourism demand in some sub regions of china furthermore regional differences between residents in different sub regions and different patterns of determinants between urban and rural residents are identified and discussed

a cross section analysis of intra industry trade in the u k abstract in this paper the inter industry patterns of intra industry trade in the united kingdom are explored a cross section econometric model is explained and estimated for the year 1977 two samples of 37 and 68 observations are tested using a variety of proxies for features of market structure including market concentration product differentiation and cost conditions the results suggest that a significant proportion of the inter industry variation in intra industry trade can be explained by the model