does the great recession imply the end of the great moderation international evidence in this paper we examine whether or not the great recession had a temporary or permanent effect on output growth volatility after years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties based on break detection methods applied to a set of advanced countries our empirical results do not give evidence to the end of the great moderation period but rather that the great recession is characterized by a dramatic short lived effect on the output growth but not on its volatility we show that neglecting the breaks both in mean and in variance can have large effects on output volatility modeling based on garch specifications

does it matter how monetary policy is implemented abstract in the u s existing monetary base measures add an adjustment factor for changes in reserve requirement ratios to high powered money implicitly the monetary base assumes that the economic effects of changes in reserve requirements are identical to those due to changes in high powered money theory however does not generally support the prediction that the two policy tools will have the same economic effects structural vars are estimated to compare the short run paths of inflation and output growth under two different types of policy shocks in doing so this analysis gives one a measure of the costs associated with this implicit equivalence assumption the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the federal reserve at least partially offsets reserve requirement changes with open market operations and the hypothesis that dynamic explanations of macroeconomic variables are improved by separating reserve requirement changes from other monetary policy moves

transfer fee regulations in european football abstract we analyze the impact of three different transfer fee systems on payoffs contract lengths training and effort incentives in european football the different regimes being used until 1995 pre bosman currently in use bosman and recently approved monti differ with respect to the transfer fee an initial club is entitled to depending on whether a player has a valid contract or not we show that the different systems differ only with respect to the contract length if the contract which maximizes the expected joint surplus of the initial club and the player is feasible under each system otherwise regime p is strictly dominated by regime b in terms of expected social welfare regime m leads to higher effort but lower incentives to invest in training compared to system b

unit root tests and the statistical pitfalls of seasonal adjustment the case of u s postwar real gross national product unit root tests applied to the postwar seasonally adjusted quarterly gross national product series strongly support the null hypothesis of the presence of a unit root in the data generating process evidence reported here with seasonally unadjusted data is far less conclusive it is explained why seasonal adjustment procedures may alter the outcome of conventional tests

a multicountry characterization of the nonstationarity of aggregate output the authors compute the scaled varlogram the variances of kth differences scaled by the variance of first differences of the log of annual per capita real aggregate output gdp or gnp as measured by 1 the long series for the united states and united kingdom 2 angus maddison s 1982 long series for twelve countries and 3 the postwar ifs data for thirty two countries simulations show that the scaled varlogram of real output is nearly always more consistent with the data being generated by parsimonious difference stationary than trend stationary univariate processes in fact the data reveal some excess nonstationarity relative to parsimonious arima models the power of the scaled varlogram to discriminate between trend stationary and difference stationary processes is somewhat greater than that of a dickey fuller type f test copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

cliometrics and time series econometrics some theory and applications the paper discusses a range of modern time series methods that have become popular in the past 20 years and considers their usefulness for cliometrics research both in theory and via a range of applications issues such as spurious regression unit roots cointegration persistence causality structural time series methods including time varying parameter models are introduced as are the estimation and testing implications that they involve applications include a discussion of the timing and potential causes of the british industrial revolution income convergence and the long run behaviour of english real wages 1264 1913 finally some new and potentially useful developments are discussed including the mildly explosive processes graphical modelling and long memory

seasonal adjustment and measuring persistence in output abstract this paper presents evidence on the following question by how much does an unexpected change in real gdp of 1 percent change this series in the long run to shed light on the robustness of the various methods suggested in the literature to answer this question we filter quarterly austrian data on real gdp by three seasonal adjustment methods applying a variety of time series techniques to the resulting series allows us to report two main findings first unexpected shocks affect gdp in the long run this finding contradicts conventional wisdom about the generating mechanism of business cycles and confirms results by campbell and mankiw 1987 for u s data second quantitative measures of persistence are not robust with respect to different seasonal adjustment methods in addition we present monte carlo evidence showing that the census x 11 method for seasonal adjustment can be a source of spuriously high measures of persistence if seasonal differencing is the appropriate adjustment method

measuring business cycles with business cycle models abstract business cycles may be defined or measured by parametrizing detrending filters to maximize the ability of a business cycle model to match the moments of the remaining cycles thus a theory can be used to guide cycle measurement we present two applications to u s postwar data in the first application the cycles are measured with a standard real business cycle model in the second they are measured using information on capacity utilization and unemployment rates simulation methods are used to describe the properties of the gmm estimators and to allow exact inference

the effects of volatility in the terms of trade on output growth new evidence abstract this paper examines the empirical evidence for the hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between terms of trade volatility and output growth it finds a statistically significant link between income terms of trade volatility and lower growth rates when the degree of volatility in the income terms of trade is decomposed into its components fluctuations in real exports are of a magnitude similar to those in the relative price of tradables similarly the volatility in the net barter terms of trade is equally affected by variations in the price of exports and of imports any policies aimed at stabilizing the terms of trade or any of its components need to take account of this

unit roots and infrequent large shocks new international evidence on output growth the authors examine output growth for the g 7 countries they use nathan s balke and thomas fomby s procedure to identify the date and type of trend breaks and note that these occur in clusters the authors estimate country specific intervention models and test the unit root hypothesis their critical values explicitly take account of the prior outliner search procedure for italy japan and the united kingdom the unit root null hypothesis can be rejected this suggests that the variance of output growth in these countries is generated by low frequency high magnitude shocks rather than high frequency low magnitude shocks copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

unit roots and infrequent large shocks new international evidence on output abstract the nature and magnitude of the economic shocks that have affected the per capita gdp of 16 oecd countries are analyzed over a long period using the outlier method strong proof of infrequent large permanent and transitory shocks were found essentially resulting from the two major wars in the twentieth century the recession in the 1920s the great depression among others we also examine the nature of the output trend by combining different tests of non stationarity on different gdp series corrected by the outliers detected it is shown that the per capita gdp series cannot reject the unit root hypothesis in 13 of the 16 countries examined no conclusion could be drawn for the other countries because the test results were contradictory

consumer rationality and credit cards borrowing on credit cards at high interest rates might appear irrational however even low transactions costs can make credit cards attractive relative to bank loans credit cards also provide liquidity services by allowing consumers to avoid some of the opportunity costs of holding money the effect of alternative interest rates on the demand for card debits can explain why credit card interest rates only partially reflect changes in the cost of funds credit card interest rates that are inflexible relative to the cost of funds are not inconsistent with a competitive equilibrium that yields zero profits for the marginal entrant

does real u k gdp have a unit root evidence from a multi century perspective we employ linear and nonlinear unit root tests to examine the stationarity of five multi century historical u k series of real output compiled by the bank of england three series span 1270 to 201

changes in the behavior of output in the united kingdom 1856 1990 abstract this paper reports evidence of major increases in the persistence of output as well as contributions of low frequency components to the variance of output growth for the united kingdom during 1856 1990 these results are contrary to those obtained by jaeger 1990

the impact of transfer fees on professional sports an analysis of the new transfer system for european football we evaluate the effect of the recently approved transfer system for european professional football which will replace the current system implemented by the bosman judgment in 1995 the focus is on the comparison of wages profits the length of contracts and investment incentives our main findings are that i the new regime reduces a player s overall payoff because it increases the new club s renegotiation payoff and ii since training generates a general skill the new regime will also diminish incentives to invest in the education of young talents because a new club benefits more from the initial club s investment

a new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle abstract this paper introduces a general procedure for decomposition of non stationary time series into a permanent and transitory component allowing both components to be stochastic the permanent component is shown to be a random walk with drift and the transitory or cyclical component is a stationary process with mean zero the decomposition methodology which depends only on past data and therefore is computable in real time is applied to the problem of measuring and dating business cycles in the portwar u s economy we find that measured expansions and contractions are of roughly equivalent duration and that our dating of cyclical episodes tends to lead the traditional nber dating and to a lesser extent the growth cycle chronology of zarnowitz and boschan 1977

free agency long term contracts and compensation in major league baseball estimates using longitudinal data for major league baseball players this paper estimates the effects of eligibility for free agency or arbitration on compensation and contract duration becaus e eligibility is based on experience and better players are kept longe r a fixed effects approach is used arbitration and free agency eligibility both raised annual compensation however only free agen cy raised contract duration the free agency findings are consistent wi th nash bargaining however additionally considering the arbitration results suggests the winner s curse duration rises only when a team might lose a player the auction market is thus avoided copyright 1993 by mit press

segmented trends and non stationary time series since the influential work of charles r nelson and charles plosser 1982 many empirical studies have concluded that macroeconomic time series are difference stationary this paper proposes the segmented trend model as an alternative in which the series is the sum of a nonstationary trend and a stationary cycle and where the trend shows infrequent shifts the paper proposes tests between the difference stationary and segmented trends models and applies these to the data of nelson and plosser in general the results indicate that prices are difference stationary but quantities follow segmented trend processes copyright 1989 by royal economic society

unit root and trend breaks in per capita output evidence from sub saharan african countries abstractthis article examines the nonstationary properties of per capita real output in 28 sub saharan african ssa countries covering the period 1960 2014 the sequential testing approach proposed by kejriwal and lopez 2013 econometric reviews 32 8 892 927 is used to categorize ssa countries into growth shift level shift and linear trend hypotheses based on the presence or not of breaks in slope and or level of the trend function the break dates are associated to major historical or economic events such as sociopolitical crisis commodity price fluctuations on international market the discovery and the exploitation of mineral deposits or unfavourable environmental and climatic conditions the empirical evidences of appropriate unit root tests fail to reject the unit root hypothesis in all the countries suggesting that a shock would have a permanent effect on growth process and stabilization policies may be implemented in dealing with income fluctuations

the coase theorem free agency and major league baseball a panel study of pitcher mobility from 1961 to 1992 a great deal of conceptual and empirical work in the economic analysis of the law and property rights has been directed towards resolving a controversy surrounding the coase theorem many economists and legal scholars interpret the theorem as containing two propositions the first is that in the absence of transactions costs and wealth effects parties will bargain to an efficient outcome the second holds that the same outcome will be achieved regardless of the distribution of property rights the latter is known as the invariance thesis and it has been a source of dispute among scholars and between economic theorists and owners of economic enterprises e g owners of professional sports teams 5 11 16 23 24 25 26 28 29 this paper provides an econometric test of the invariance proposition major league baseball presents a natural experiment consisting of an industry in which there has been an explicit change in the assignment of property rights beginning in 1879 the reserve clause gave monopsony power to team owners a player could negotiate salary only with the team that owned his contract and the team could trade or sell the player as management saw fit in 1976 this system was replaced by the institution of free agency whereby a player with at least six years of major league experience acquired

long memory and persistence in aggregate output abstract we examine persistence in u s aggregate output by estimating fractionally integrated arima models these models provide better low frequency approximations to the wold representation than previous stochastic specifications and earlier results on the importance of a permanent component emerge as special cases we find evidence of long memory which induces persistence though this long memory need not be associated with a unit root our point estimates indicate that macroeconomic shocks while persistent are distinctly less persistent than many earlier studies suggest however confidence intervals associated with the long run response are quite wide

the nonstationarity of aggregate output some additional international evidence in this paper the stationarity of aggregate output is examined using the scaled variogram for a sample of twelve countries it is argued that if the true data generating process of output is stationary around a deterministic trend with a change in mean and or growth rate the results of previous studies are biased once the authors allow for a one time exogenous shock the conclusions are indeed less clear cut and for some countries even reversed copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

debt deficits and inflation an application to the public finances of india abstract the paper studies the solvency of the indian public sector and the eventual monetization and inflation that would be implied by stabilization of the debt gnp ratio in the absence of changes in the primary deficit the nonstationarity of the discounted public debt suggests that indefinite continuation of the pattern of behavior reflected in the historical time series process is inconsistent with the maintenance of solvency this message is reinforced by the recent behavior of the debt gnp ratio and of the ratio to gnp of the sum of the primary budget surplus and seigniorage our estimates of the base money demand function suggests that even maximal use of the inflation tax would not be sufficient to restore solvency measures to reduce the primary deficit are therefore unavoidable

do large recessions reduce output permanently the slow recovery following the 2008 2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions lower real gdp permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels using a recent quantile autoregression unit root test we check whether shocks to real gdp have permanent or temporary effects in contrast to earlier studies this approach takes into account that the transmission of a shock might depend on the sign and the size of the shock large recessionary shocks might have a different effect than smaller recessionary or expansionary shocks we do not only test the unit root hypothesis at the conditional mean of gdp but also in the tails of the distribution where the lower tail corresponds to large recessions the test has more power than conventional unit root tests we find that positive and negative shocks including large recessionary shocks have permanent effects on output therefore a rebound of gdp to its pre crisis trend level is unlikely current output gap estimates based on deterministic trends are likely to be too negative and inflation forecasts based on these are likely to be too low

nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination do african exchange rates follow a random walk in this article we aim at modelling the long run behaviour of the real effective exchange rates reer for a pool of african countries not much attention has been paid to this group of countries in particular to the existence of nonlinearities in the long run path of such a variable controlling for two sources of nonlinearities i e asymmetric adjustment to equilibrium and nonlinear deterministic trends allows us to gain some insight about the behaviour of the african reer we find that these sources of nonlinearities help us to explain the apparent unit root behaviour found applying linear unit root tests for most of the countries

bias in salary arbitration the case of major league baseball this study analyses all baseball arbitration cases from 1985 90 to determine if decisions differ among ethnic groups unlike earlier arbitration analyses extensive controls for individual and team performance are used holding performance constant the results indicate that latin american players have 33 less chance and blacks 19 less chance than does a white player of winning a case these differences are not reflected by more risky salary demands by minority players and only marginally reflected by market salary practices toward minority players therefore bias appears to emanate from arbitrator utility functions

the uncertain trend in u s gdp abstract several recent papers conclude that gdp is trend stationary implying that all shocks are transitory we re examine the evidence in light of test size distortion due to data based lag selection and departures from the maintained hypothesis of temporal homogeneity and find both effects trigger false rejections of the unit root hypothesis when it is true and signal the presence of permanent shifts in trend that did not occur trend stationarity is not supported by the more homogeneous post war data but if imposed implies cycles of implausible duration and pattern 1997 output was 8 below trend

are output growth rate distributions fat tailed some evidence from oecd countries this work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth rate time series we show that in the majority of oecd countries output growth rate distributions are well approximated by symmetric exponential power densities with tails much fatter than those of a gaussian fat tails robustly emerge in output growth rates independently of i the way we measure aggregate output ii the family of densities employed in the estimation iii the length of time lags used to compute growth rates we also show that fat tails still characterize output growth rate distributions even after one washes away outliers autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity

a measure of the u s output gap abstract an autoregressive distributed lag regression of the unemployment rate on output growth is structurally stable over the 1890 1986 period inverting this equation yields a measure of the output gap which is not subject to the spurious detrending problem

output and unemployment dynamics in the united states 1950 1985 for us data over 1950 1985 the stochastic components of gnp growth and the unemployment rate appear to be stationary and there is substantial feedback between these variables the unconditional mean rate of unemployment in a joint model thus provides a natural benchmark in discussions of the business cycle a bivariate var model is used to describe output unemployment dynamics to estimate the degree of persistence of output innovations and to decompose output into trend and cycle the bivariate results are interpreted using a restricted var and it is shown that a closely related cyclical measure can be obtained directly from the okun s law equation

oligopolistic pricing with sequential consumer search n identical stores compete by choosing prices for a homogeneous good with constant marginal costs consumers search sequentially with perfect recall for the lowest price one class of consumers called shoppers have zero search costs while all other consumers have a positive search cost c there is a unique symmetric nash equilibrium price distribution with the property that it changes smoothly from marginal cost pricing when all consumers are shoppers and or c 0 and monopoly pricing when no consumers are shoppers remarkably as the number of stores increases the nash equilibrium becomes more monopolistic copyright 1989 by american economic association

trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series two structural time series models for annual observations are constructed in terms of trend cycle and irregular components the models are then estimated via the kalman filter using data on five u s macroeconomic time series the results provide some interesting insights into the dynamic structure of the series particularly with respect to cyclical behavior at the same time they illustrate the development of a model selection strategy for structural time series models

the unit root hypothesis for aggregate output may not hold after all new evidence from a panel stationarity test with multiple breaks author affiliation diego romero avila pablo de olavide university department of economics carretera de utrera km 1 41013 seville spain dromtor upo es acknowledgment the author would like to thank seminar participants at pablo de olavide university and dg economics of the european central bank and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions 1 introductionsince the seminal work by nelson and plosser 1982 researchers have paid considerable attention to the presence of stochastic trends in macroeconomic variables that work also changed the way macroeconomists think about secular trends and short run fluctuations in business cycles since the existence of a unit root in output purports that shocks are permanent short run fluctuations cannot be explained by the traditional view as deviations around a deterministic trend that represents the secular component of the series instead the trend function itself can fluctuate as a result of permanent shocks king et al 1991 found that supply factors are important in explaining economic fluctuations but may not be the lone source of short run fluctuations campbell and mankiw 1987 stressed that demand shocks may also be the source of permanent shocks to output the existence of a high degree of persistence in output has important implications in macroeconomics for example the keynesian view that most shocks to output are transitory and output fluctuations are temporary deviations from the secular trend is inconsistent with a unit root in output on the contrary the real business cycle view conceives fluctuations as largely the result of real permanent shocks essentially of a technological nature this has important implications for economic policy since stabilization policies lose their effectiveness when variations of output are mainly permanent thus running counter to the keynesian view much of the empirical literature has focused on the nonstationarity properties of real u s gross national product gnp to cite a few studies perron and phillips 1987 schwert 1987 campbell and mankiw 1987 and perron 1988 fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in real u s gnp these results have not gone unchallenged christiano and eichenbaum 1990 and rudebusch 1993 highlighted the low power of standard unit root tests of the augmented dickey and fuller 1979 type to distinguish between the trend stationary and unit root behavior in aggregate output the development of cross country data sets such as the long gross domestic product gdp series provided by maddison 1989 and the penn world table pwt constructed by summers and heston 1990 has allowed researchers to provide international evidence on the unit root behavior in aggregate output for instance wasserfallen 1986 found a unit root in gnp series for some organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries over the postwar era kormendi and meguire 1990 confirmed the existence of a unit root in output for twelve oecd countries over the period 1870 1985 1 however the seminal work of perron 1989 uncovered the fact that nonstationarity may conceal the existence of stationarity with structural change showing that standard unit root tests tend to misinterpret trend stationarity with a structural break as a unit root by exogenously imposing a structural break in real u s gnp perron 1989 was able to strongly reject the unit root hypothesis however zivot and andrews 1992 provided slightly less evidence of a unit root in real u s gnp using a test that allowed for a structural break that was endogenously determined from the data in an international context zelhorst and de haan 1994 1995 found evidence for oecd countries that over long time periods where the presence of structural change becomes more likely the null of a unit root in output tends to be rejected in favor of regime wise stationarity

canadian economic growth random walk or just a walk this paper analyses the role of shocks in canadian economic growth since 1870 it uses a nonparametric technique to evaluate the degree of presistence of an innnovation in long run gnp it is found that a one percent shock to canadian gnp changes the long run forecast of this variable by appproximately the same amount which is characteristic of a random walk process it is also shown that in important periods of canadian economic growth its gnp evolved as a random walk with constant drift with the exception of the period 1929 42 no evidence of business cycles is found these results lead to the conclusion that movements and oscillations in the gnp of canada since 1870 have been primarily driven by the accumulation of shocks rather than by cyclical movements

are output fluctuations transitory according to the conventional view of the business cycle fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend the purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view if fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one s forecast of output in say five or ten years our examination of quarterly postwar united states data leads us to be skeptical about this implication the data suggest that an unexpected change in real gnp of 1 percent should change one s forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon

large shocks small shocks and economic fluctuations outliers in macroeconomic time series summary we analyse fifteen post world war i1 us macroeconomic time series using a modified outlier identification procedure based on tsay 1988a large shocks appear to be present in all the series we examined furthermore there are three basic outlier patterns i outliers seem to be associated with business cycles 2 outliers are clustered together both over time and across series 3 there appears to be a dichotomy between outlier behaviour of real versus nominal series also after controlling for outliers much of the evidence of non linearity in many of the time series is eliminated

bank competition and consumer search over credit card interest rates this article models bank competition facing consumers with different search incentivesandfindsthatconsumerswithhighercreditcardbalanceshavelowerinterestrates giventheirriskclassduetotheirgreatersearcheffort italsofindsthatadefaulthistory leads to higher interest rates the equilibrium interest rate corresponding to risk type and motive borrowing versus convenience transactions is derived theoretically and the determinants of the interest rate are estimated using an original data set endogeneity of default is handled with a two equation system jel d14 d12 d11 this study analyzes market outcomes in the credit card industry when credit card banks ccbs compete with interest rates and cardholders have different motives for using credit cards the study takes account of the role of consumer motivation in a way that has not been captured by previous work in our model consumers react differently to interest rate offers depending on their motive for using credit cards i e borrowing versus conve

international evidence on persistence in output in the presence of an episodic change this paper uses some newly developed methods and techniques to examine the dynamic properties of international output in the presence of a structural break we provide statistical evidence to show that the unit root test results can in some cases be sensitive to whether a one time structural break in the data is modelled exogenously or endogenously however in most cases the unit root test results remain robust to specification of the structural break exogenously or endogenously moreover we find that the null hypothesis of a unit root in output can be rejected in favour of a flexible trend alternative for a number of countries such as canada denmark france and the united states

ethnicity productivity and salary player compensation and discrimination in the national hockey league the paper considers the impact of potential minority francophone american european ethnic language culture discrimination on salary determination in the national hockey league using player salary data for the 1989 90 season a regression model of salary determination is constructed which includes variables measuring productivity skills market structure and allows for several ethnic influences including minority discrimination ethnically shaped consumer preferences and reservation wages the basic conclusion is that wages are principally determined by productivity and market structure and the only evidence of discrimination is found in the ethnically influenced consumer preference of american as opposed to canadian teams

mergers stock prices and industrial production further evidence abstract economic theory has been developed to correlate mergers and stock prices and mergers and industrial production this study tests for significant relations among annual mergers stock prices and industrial production and examines whether multiple time series models can forecast annual mergers more accurately than a univariate merger model we do not find that the mean square forecasting error of the multivariate time series model is significantly less than the mean square forecasting error of the univariate merger model the stock price series does not aid in forecasting mergers

model evaluation based on residual analysis of two similar models models that may appear to have different properties may in fact produce residuals that differ only in subtle ways by analysing the relationships between model residuals the problems in distinguishing between models can perhaps be discovered as illustrated by the econometric examples considered regressing residuals gives the long memory residual which is the difference between two models but this difference is very subtle and deeply hidden which explains why the traditional standard technique does not find this difference

an investigation into adequate data for estimating annual earnings time series models abstract the purpose of this study is to examine the stability of corporate earnings per share eps time series models as the length of the time series are altered evidence is found to support the stationarity of corporate eps data furthermore outlier analysis is employed and supports the long run stability of corporate earnings series

the sports business as a labor market laboratory with superior data on compensation and productivity as well as the occurrence of abrupt dramatic market structure and player allocation rules changes sports labor markets offer an excellent setting in which to test economic hypotheses this paper reviews evidence from sports in four areas employer monopsony discrimination the coase theorem and incentive contracts supervision and performance there is considerable evidence of monopsony as well as for the existence of some forms of discrimination against minority athletes incentive contracts have strong effects on player performance and behavior and there is mixed evidence on the predictions of the coase theorem

unobserved component time series models with markov switching heteroscedasticity changes in regime and the link between inflation rates and inflation uncertainty in this article i first extend the standard unobserved component time series model to include hamilton s markov switching heteroscedasticity this will provide an alternative to the unobserved component model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity as developed by harvey ruiz and sentana and by evans and wachtel i then apply a generalized version of the model to investigate the link between inflation and its uncertainty u s data gross national product deflator 1958 1 1990 4 i assume that inflation consists of a stochastic trend random walk component and a stationary autoregressive component following ball and cecchetti and a four state model of u s inflation rate is specified by incorporating regime shifts in both mean and variance structures i analyze the interaction of mean and variance over long and short horizons the empirical results show that inflation is costly because higher inflation is associated with higher long run uncertainty

an economic evaluation of the moneyball hypothesis in his 2003 book moneyball financial reporter michael lewis made a striking claim the valuation of skills in the market for baseball players was grossly inefficient the discrepancy was so large that when the oakland athletics hired an unlikely management group consisting of billy beane a former player with mediocre talent and two quantitative analysts the team was able to exploit this inefficiency and outproduce most of the competition while operating on a shoestring budget the publication of moneyball triggered a firestorm of criticism from baseball insiders lewis 2004 and it raised the eyebrows of many economists as well basic price theory implies a tight correspondence between pay and productivity when markets are competitive and rich in information as would seem to be the case in baseball the market for baseball players receives daily attention from the print and broadcast media along with periodic in depth analysis from lifelong baseball experts and academic economists indeed a case can be made that more is known about pay and quantified performance in this market than in any other labor market in the american economy in this paper we test the central portion of lewis s 2003 argument with elementary econometric tools and confirm his claims in particular we find that hitters salaries during this period did not accurately reflect the contribution of various batting skills to winning games this inefficiency was sufficiently large that knowledge of its existence and the ability to exploit it enabled the oakland athletics to gain a substantial advantage over their competition further we find

shifting trends segmented trends and infrequent permanent shocks abstract a stochastic trend model is considered in which permanent shocks occur infrequently and randomly we show that this model is observationally equivalent to shifting segmented deterministic trend models moreover we show that standard full sample time series methods are incapable of distinguishing between small frequent permanent shocks and large infrequent permanent shocks an outlier search however reveals substantial evidence of large infrequent shocks to the gnp deflator and that these shocks account for most of the persistence in the gnp deflator for real gnp evidence of infrequent permanent shocks is weaker

changing inflation dynamics and uncertainty in the united states garch estimation we investigate recent changes in the level persistence and uncertainty of u s inflation despite the great strides in lowering inflation in the 1980s and 1990s we find that uncertainty has risen palpably in the current decade this is disturbing given the aforementioned findings of the negative impact of inflation uncertainty on output moreover analyzing both the standard consumer price index cpi and the cpi minus energy our results suggest that volatile energy costs contribute to the higher inflation uncertainty in the united states in the current decade

international evidence on shock persistence structural change nonlinearities and subsample robustness testing for unit roots and the related issue of measuring shock persistence has attracted considerable theoretical and applied econometric interest the issue of the size of the random walk component raised by cochrane journal of political economy 96 893 920 1988 has been extended in the work of other authors leung economics letters 40 435 44 1992 in particular considers the effects of structural breaks on measures of persistence in this paper we consider new results for the effects of structural change nonlinearities and subsample robustness on spectral based measures of persistence illustrating the potential problems via an updated and extended version of the cogley journal of political economy 98 501 18 1990 data set we find that significant structural breaks exist in the majority of the series investigated furthermore measured persistence differs markedly across distinct periods with the assumption of common growth rates over very long periods leading on occasions to potentially

do fluctuations in u s inflation rates reflect infrequent large shocks or frequent small shocks we investigate whether fluctuations in u s inflation rates are better described by infrequently occurring large shocks or by frequently occurring small shocks we estimate a model that encompasses the two hypotheses within the framework of non gaussian state space models our results indicate support for infrequently occurring large shocks but this weakens somewhat once we allow for outliers and conditional heteroskedasticity it appears that for the purpose of forecasting monthly u s inflation rates recognizing the distinction between frequent small shocks and infrequent large shocks does not matter much once outliers and conditional heteroskedasticity are allowed for

international evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence we estimate output growth rate spectra for 58 countries the spectra exhibit diverse shapes to study the sources of this diversity we estimate the short run business cycle and long run frequency components of the sampled series for most oecd countries the bulk of the spectral mass is in the business cycle frequency band and the magnitude of this cyclical component increases with income for the developing countries however the spectral mass is not concentrated in the business cycle frequency band and the income cycle relationship is not as strong we also estimate two frequency domain measures of shock persistence and find both measures to vary considerably across countries with the u s having the lowest estimates for the oecd countries most of the variation in the variance ratio statistic appears to be explained by the variation in the long term growth component

credit card debt and consumption evidence from household level data this research investigates the relationship between credit card debt and consumption using household level data this is a departure from the previous studies which have used aggregate measures of consumption and general debt such as the debt service ratio or total revolving credit we use a detailed monthly survey of credit card use to impute credit card debt to respondents from the consumer expenditure survey sample in contrast to some earlier studies using aggregate data we find a negative relationship between debt and consumption growth our work shows that a 1000 increase in credit card debt results in a decrease in quarterly consumption growth of almost 2 investigations are also made into effects of debt within different age categories and into the impact of expected income growth on the debt consumption relationship

arbitrator compromise in final offer arbitration evidence from major league baseball i introduction the purpose of interest arbitration is to encourage two bargainers to reach a mutually agreeable settlement in the event of impasse an independent arbitrator determines the settlement in conventional arbitration ca each of the bargainers submits an offer the arbitrator may select one of the two offers or one of his or her own choosing as the settlement critics have argued that arbitrators split the difference between the offers to enhance their chances of being rehired in future cases this gives each bargainer an incentive to submit an extreme offer to increase its expected gains from arbitration as a result ca chills rather than encourages productive negotiation final offer arbitration foa was created by stevens 1966 to remedy the chilling effect he proposed that arbitrators select one of the two submitted offers as the award unable to compromise between the offers the arbitrator will presumably choose the most reasonable offer as the award ironically arbitrator compromise may exist even in foa according to theory foa arbitrators maximize their chances of being rehired by formulating a notion of the ideal settlement the preferred award and selecting the nearest offer importantly bazerman and farber 1985 farber and bazerman 1986 and gibbons 1988 noted that the preferred award is not exogenous but reflects the perspectives of the bargainers consequently although foa arbitrators may not compromise by splitting the difference between the offers they may formulate preferred awards that compromise between the bargainers perspectives because farber 1980 and gibbons 1988 showed that submitted offers should be strategically aligned around the arbitrator s preferred award an empirical analysis of final offers should reveal any compromises implicit in the preferred award to test the compromised preferred award hypothesis this study examines foa offers in major league baseball unique characteristics in baseball foa allow for a test of the compromised preferred award baseball players become eligible for foa after completing roughly three years of major league service during these first three years the players bargain in a purely monopsonistic environment the players may not freely negotiate with other clubs until they have completed six years of service the coexisting monopsonistic and oligopsonistic free agency markets have led to extraordinary differentials in player salaries that have been well documented in economic literature as in kahn 1993 although players with three to six years of experience continue to be bound to one club they may unilaterally opt for foa consequently the arbitrator must determine the appropriate payscale for an eligible player because the clubs prefer to extend monopsony salaries into the arbitration eligibility years they are likely to stress the importance of the player s prior salary i e the size of the raise a player is entitled to receive whereas the players would rather have the arbitrators rely on free agent salaries to determine the proper wage although the arbitrators could side with one of the positions theory predicts the preferred award will reflect a compromise between the two perspectives the results strongly support the existence of compromised preferred award the submitted final offers are a weighted average between the mean free agent salary and the player s salary in the previous season the notion that the preferred award represents a compromise between the two perspectives is strengthened when one examines the weights of losing offers specifically for both hitters and pitchers the losing player offer does not differ significantly from the mean free agent salary for a comparable player winning player offers on the other hand are less than the comparable free agent salary perhaps the most intriguing finding is that by compromising between the perspectives of players and clubs baseball foa has generated its own unique labor market through which player salaries lie between the monopsony and free agent levels

do liquidity constraints and interest rates matter for consumer behavior evidence from credit card data this paper utilizes a unique new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze how people respond to changes in credit supply the data consist of a panel of thousands of individual credit card accounts from several different card issuers with associated credit bureau data we estimate both marginal propensities to consume mpcs out of liquidity and interest rate elasticities we also evaluate the ability of different models of consumption to rationalize our results distinguishing the permanent income hypothesis pih liquidity constraints precautionary saving and behavioral models we find that increases in credit limits generate an immediate and significant rise in debt counter to the pih the average mpc out of liquidity ddebt dlimit ranges between 10 14 the mpc is much larger for people starting near their limits consistent with binding liquidity constraints however the mpc is significant even for people starting well below their limit we show this response is consistent with buffer stock models of precautionary saving nonetheless there are other results that conventional models cannot easily explain e g why so many people are borrowing on their credit cards and simultaneously holding low yielding assets unlike most other studies we also find strong effects from changes in account specific interest rates the long run elasticity of debt to the interest rate is approximately 1 3 less than half of this elasticity represents balance shifting across cards with most reflecting net changes in total borrowing the elasticity is larger for decreases in interest rates than for increases which can explain the widespread use of temporary promotional rates the elasticity is smaller for people starting near their credit limits again consistent with liquidity constraints

memory and infrequent breaks abstract we study how processes with infrequent regime switching may generate a long memory effect in the autocorrelation function in such a case the use of a strong fractional i d model for economic or financial analysis may lead to spurious results

the climacteric in late victorian britain and france a reappraisal of the evidence the paper investigates the question of whether the trend rate of growth of gdp slowed down in britain or france in the nineteenth century we establish that real gdp belongs to the trend stationary process class of time series in each case rather than the difference stationary process and using kalman filter techniques analyse trends in a model incorporating time varying parameters without specifying breakpoints in advance we find contrary to the literature that neither country experienced a climacteric our results suggest that economic historians have been prone to exaggerated views of variations in trend economic growth

does gnp have a unit root a re evaluation abstract stock and watson 1986 test the hypothesis that real per capita gnp has a unit root by using a test statistic due to phillips 1985 which incorporates a non parametric correction for the serial correlation induced by system and error dynamics the version of this test that is used by stock and watson does not accomodate the presence of a drift and to compensate they detrend the series by extracting a 1 5 annual trend growth we use a version of this class of non parametric tests developed by phillips and perron 1986 which allows for an estimated drift and reassess the stock and watson findings

structural breaks in financial share savings and growth in oecd 1960 92 indivisibilities in extending financial markets imply level shifts in the financial cost share this could induce growth and savings slumps we search for structural breaks in the financial sector share of seven oecd countries and relate these to changes in gdp growth and the savings share the event patterns of these macro series are classified and weighted by typicities financial structural breaks are associated with decreased savings but ambiguous with respect to growth we conjecture that most of the period is a successive transition to increasing financial shares accompanied by lower savings and more sluggish growth

does output have a unit root new international evidence in this paper unit root tests for per capita output of 12 oecd countries are performed using traditional unit root tests it follows that the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected except for the us however following the approach of perron 1989 which takes shifts in mean and or trend into account the null hypothesis of a unit root can be rejected in most countries in our sample in contrast to perron a method suggested by christiano 1992 is used to determine the break date endogenously

property rights and resource use evidence from mlb starting pitchers we conduct a unique test of the efficiency of property rights in major league baseball the rights to the services of players are resources that can be possessed by the clubs or by the players them

the cyclical component of u s economic activity quarterly data on industrial production and deflated gross national product in the united states from 1947 through 1985 are decomposed into independent nonstationary trend and stationary cycle components using kalman filtering and smoothing techniques estimates of the model parameters imply that at least half of the quarterly innovation in u s economic activity can be attributed to a stationary cyclical component that persists over periods of time as long as five years this finding is inconsistent with the hypothesis that most of the apparent variation in u s economic activity can be attributed to a nonstationary trend component

structural breaks in parallel markets the case of nigeria 1980 1993 abstract this paper demonstrates the importance of allowing for structural breaks in the time series when investigating the relationship between the official and the parallel markets in foreign exchange only when structural breaks are accounted for does a relationship emerge in nigeria we find that over the period 1980 1993 the official rate has granger caused the parallel rate

nonlinear business cycle dynamics cross country evidence on the persistence of aggregate shocks i introduction economists have long been interested in the dynamics of business cycles particularly regarding the symmetry of expansions and contractions more recently the specification of stochastic trends in economic growth has generated concerns about the relative persistence of positive and negative shocks to the economy several papers have looked at the persistence of business cycles including nelson and plosser 1982 campbell and mankiw 1987 cochrane 1988 diebold and rudebusch 1989 balke and fomby 1990 zelhorst and de haan 1994 and bradley and jansen 1995 while results vary especially on the issue of a unit root in output the overarching result is that output fluctuations are highly persistent one question not asked by the above authors is whether business cycle dynamics are asymmetric this issue has been investigated by neftci 1984 falk 1986 delong and summers 1986 hamilton 1989 diebold and rudebusch 1990 and terasvirta and anderson 1991 these authors take a variety of approaches but they reach a general conclusion that there is some evidence of asymmetric business cycle dynamics however most of these studies ask if contractions are shorter and steeper than expansions except hamilton 1989 they do not ask if there is a difference in persistence due to the asymmetries in a recent paper beaudry and koop 1993 propose a set of methods for simultaneously examining these two questions specifically beaudry and koop bk recommend the augmentation of the standard arma representation of real output growth through the inclusion of a nonlinear term that captures the relative state of the economy this augmentation provides for nonlinear dynamics and the possibility of asymmetric dynamic responses to positive and negative shocks in addition calculation of the implied impulse responses permits detection of the relative persistence implied by the combination of asymmetric cycle dynamics and stochastic trend based upon their analysis of u s data bk conclude that the response of the economy to positive and negative shocks is indeed asymmetric and the imposition of symmetry on impulse responses has likely led to misleading measures of persistence bk p 162 as a result bk conclude we find that the effects of negative shocks to be mainly temporary and the effects of positive shocks to be very persistent bk p 162 if bk s results are correct they have strong implications for the way macro economists view economic fluctuations and will in their words contribute to a reappraisal of some macroeconomic theories that is bk s results suggest that macroeconomic models must be revised to provide for temporary effects of negative shocks but permanent effects of positive shocks because of the potential importance of bk s results we examine the robustness of those results by modifying and extending bk s proposed methods of testing not only do we extend the analysis to the other six g7 countries besides the united states but also we redefine in a sensible way the nature of the nonlinear dynamics overall our results from other economies provide only mixed support for the asymmetry of cyclical dynamics and the lack of persistence of negative shocks ii the model to be estimated in the bk framework the estimated model includes an asymmetric response term the asymmetry is generated by a variable that measures the strength of a recession the variable is calculated as the distance between current real gdp and the previous peak level of real gdp that is bk define a measure they call current depth of the recession cdr where 1 cdr sub t max y sub t j sub j greater than or equal to 0 y sub t with this definition in place bk recommend augmenting an autoregressive model of real gdp growth as 2 phi l delta y sub t delta omega l 1 cdr sub

are prices countercyclical evidence from the g 7 abstract this paper re examines the cyclical behavior of prices using postwar quarterly data for the g 7 we confirm recent evidence that the price level is countercyclical however we find strong evidence that the inflation rate is procyclical in our sample our results show the importance of making a clear distinction between inflation and the cyclical component of the price level when reporting and interpreting stylized facts regarding business cycles

the existence and persistence of a winner s curse new evidence from the baseball field this study takes advantage of recent developments in the measurement and valuation of individual output in the baseball labor market to i reassess prior evidence that this market is afflicted by the winner s curse phenomenon and ii test whether bidders learn to avoid this curse over time though we find no evidence of negative average returns on player contracts for the earliest cohort of baseball free agents we conclude that teams in that era failed to efficiently discount their bids in accord with available information especially about risk what is more evidence from a larger sample of players signed in the late 1990s shows that teams have continued to overvalue inconsistent free agents and failed to limit their bids to conform to players lower values in small markets this is consistent with experimental evidence that finds bounded rational behavior when bidders are faced with complex valuation problems involving multiple elements

the estimation of prewar gross national product methodology and new evidence the paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar gnp taps previously unused data sources and develops new estimates for the periods 1869 1908 and 1869 1928 primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation communications and construction sectors and estimates of the consumer price index new measures of real gnp nominal gnp and the gnp deflator are developed the new estimates of real gnp are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional kuznets kendrick series but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others the new estimates of the gnp deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than those in the postwar period

hedonics and demand analysis the implicit demand for player attributes i introduction hedonic analysis is the standard technique of applied econometrics for modeling differentiated products a hedonic price function relates the observed price of a differentiated good to the bundle of characteristics of which the good is composed the derivatives of the function with respect to the characteristics are the implied hedonic prices which empirical work typically seeks to estimate as has been recognized since at least the work of rosen 1974 underlying the hedonic price function is an implicit market for these characteristics a number of studies have attempted to estimate the associated supply demand system in particular applied contexts based on data on the quantities of the characteristics used in the estimation of the hedonic price function and the resulting estimated hedonic prices examples include nelson 1978 witte sumka and erekson 1979 and thomas 1993 rather than a complete supply demand system other authors focus only on the implicit demand for characteristics for example polinsky and rubinfeld 1977 harrison and rubinfeld 1978 agarwal and ratchford 1980 bender gronberg and hwang 1980 blomquist and worley 1981 quigley 1982 mendelsohn 1984 and palmquist 1984 a curious aspect of these studies which appears to have gone unrecognized is the failure to draw on modern econometric demand analysis in the estimation of the implied demand system for the characteristics instead the analysis of the implicit market proceeds on the basis of ad hoc typically linear or loglinear functional forms which involve no explicit derivation from consumer theory and which impose arbitrary and non testable restrictions on preferences as a consequence there is little means beyond descriptive econometric measures goodness of fit examination of signs and t ratios and so on for judging the adequacy or legitimacy of the results no use is made of contemporary flexible functional form methodology which provides a second order approximation to arbitrary preferences and which permits in addition to the calculation of elasticities the testing of fundamental hypotheses of consumer theory such as demand homogeneity and symmetry of the slutsky matrix and numerical checks on the concavity of the associated implied expenditure function the present work attempts to fill this gap however instead of a differentiated good in a product market to which consumer demand theory would apply we choose to study a good in a factor market so that the relevant demand equations are a system of factor demands for the underlying characteristics the good in question is the service of baseball players to major league baseball teams which is a differentiated good in that different players represent different bundles of alternative attributes such as pitching or hitting skills our focus is solely on the implicit demand system for these attributes no attempt is made to estimate the associated supply system reflecting player behavior there are several reasons for this seemingly peculiar choice of commodity first the factor market for baseball players is of some intrinsic interest as evidenced by the extent to which it has been studied by economists for a taste of this see the entry by quirk 1987 in the new palgrave and the recent survey by fort and quirk 1995 in particular the market has been the focus of work by labor economists examples are blass 1992 khan 1993a 1993b and sommers 1992 much of this literature derives from the seminal work of scully 1974 who estimated equations for baseball player salaries as functions of player skills although not previously recognized in these terms underlying scully s salary equations are implicit markets for player skills the previous work involving baseball salary equations by scully 1974 1989 and others for example blass 1992 hill and spellman 1984 fort 1992 pascal and rapping 1972 raimondo 1983 and sommers 1990 is useful because it provides guidance as to the appropriate specification of the hedonic price equation

forecasting economic time series with structural and box jenkins models a case study the basic structural model is a univariate time series model consisting of a slowly changing trend component a slowly changing seasonal component and a random irregular component it is part of a class of models that have a number of advantages over the seasonal arima models adopted by box and jenkins 1976 this article reports the results of an exercise in which the basic structural model was estimated for six u k macroeconomic time series and the forecasting performance compared with that of arima models previously fitted by prothero and wallis 1976