brain drain remittances and fertility this paper analyzes the effects of skilled migration and remittances on fertility decisions at origin we develop an overlapping generations model which accounts for endogenous fertility and education parents choose the number of children they want to raise and decide upon how many children obtain higher education only high skilled individuals migrate with a certain probability and remit to their parents we find that an increase in the probability to emigrate leads both high and low skilled parents to send more children to obtain higher education however the effect on the number of children is ambiguous in a further analysis we calibrate the model to match different characteristics of a developing economy when the destination country relaxes the immigration restrictions more high skilled individuals leave the origin country the result is that at origin increased high skilled emigration reduces fertility and fosters human capital accumulation

fiscal policy expectation traps and child labor i introduction child labor is widespread in the contemporary world in fact the international labor organization ilo estimates that 246 million of the world s children aged 5 17 or 16 are child laborers most living in developing countries 1 recently there has been renewed interest in this topic among economists which has led to a series of theoretical studies with the aim of better understanding the causes and consequences of child labor in order to help guide appropriate policy responses as in grootaert and kanbur 1995 basu 1999 and basu and tzannatos 2003 for useful literature surveys typically theoretical models designed to address the important policy issues surrounding child labor posit that a family s decision to send a child to the labor market is taken only as a last resort in order to escape the dire consequences of poverty for example basu and van 1998 baland and robinson 2000 show that this response on the part of the family may be stronger in a dynamic setting because contracts between children and adults are not self enforcing and capital markets are incomplete 2 in this case an adult decision maker may not only send their children to work to escape poverty in the present but do so to escape poverty in the future as well this decision will hinder a child s ability to accumulate human capital and can lead to persistent cycles of poverty and child labor across generations 3 we begin by showing that a benevolent government can address the incidence of child labor that results from the non enforceability of intergenerational contracts and incomplete capital markets through the appropriate use of fiscal policy and that this policy is pareto improving it is then shown that if society s confidence in their government is incomplete this lack of confidence can render the same fiscal policy ineffective in other words if households do not believe that the government will follow through on their policy promise then in fact it is quite possible that the government will not be able to follow through on their promise as a result of these beliefs 4 this self reinforcing nature of fiscal policy in the presence of uncertainty can leave a country in an expectations trap with a low level of human capital and child labor 5 to formally demonstrate this fiscal policy expectations trap hypothesis we employ a three period overlapping generations model in which child labor exists 6 this stylized setup will keep the dynamics manageable and allow us to highlight the effects of uncertainty also within this framework we introduce a missing intergenerational contracts market in conjunction with a human capital production function that exhibits a threshold with respect to parental human capital which gives rise to two locally stable steady states there is a good equilibrium where there is a relatively high level of parental human capital which results in a high level of income and no child labor and there is a bad equilibrium where there is a relatively low level of parental human capital which results in a low level of income and positive child labor this low income child labor equilibrium is the standard poverty trap scenario that typically exists in a deterministic economy with multiple equilibria it is then shown that a benevolent government can replicate the missing intergenerational contracts market with a pay as you go social security program thereby eliminating this component of child labor in an economy with perfect foresight in addition it is also shown that this policy is pareto improving in the sense that all generations are strictly better off under this policy except the initial old who are no worse off the dynamics of this social security program are intuitive if child labor is one possible mechanism adults can use to redistribute resources from their children then the government can reduce this incentive by announcing a social security program that will begin during the current adults old age an institutional intergenerational contract

structural change and income distribution an inverted u relationship abstract this paper constructs a disequilibrium model in order to analyse the structural transition characterized by the emergence of a new sector we show that in an economy where preferences and technology adapt over time multiple long term outcomes are mainly brought about by different distributive rules governing the assignment of innovative rents between workers and entrepreneurs we robustly establish that a successful transition to a two sector economy is ensured by a balanced distribution restoring the co ordination of investment and consumption plans instead when innovative rents are too concentrated in favor of either workers or entrepreneurs the system does not fully accomplish the transition and unemployment might emerge in contrast with the standard view of a negative relationship between real wages and employment

expectationally driven market volatility an experimental study abstract we study the existence and robustness of expectationally driven price volatility in experimental overlapping generation economies in the theoretical model under study there exist pure sunspot equilibria which can be learned if agents use some adaptive learning rules our data show the existence of expectationally driven cycles but only after subjects have been exposed to a sequence of real shocks and learned a real cycle in this sense we show evidence of path dependent price volatility journal of economic literature classification numbers c62 c92 f17 e32 e44

capital utilization and the foundations of club convergence abstract multiple steady states may arise in standard neoclassical growth models if the savings rate of wage income exceeds that of capital income this paper shows that endogenous capital utilization may produce such savings behavior in an otherwise standard solow model

convergence to efficiency in a simple market with incomplete information a model of trade with m buyers and m sellers is considered in which price is set to equate revealed demand and supply in a bayesian nash equilibrium each trader acts not as a price taker but instead misrepresents his true demand supply to influence price in his favor this causes inefficiency we show that in any equilibrium the amount by which a trader misreports is o 1 m and the corresponding inefficiency is o 1 m2 the indeterminacy and the inefficiency that is caused by the traders bargaining behavior in small markets thus rapidly vanishes as the market increases in size

banking development socioeconomic structure and income inequality abstract using rich unique data from the italian local credit markets provinces this paper investigates the impact of local banking development on income inequality and the role of the socioeconomic structure in this link exploiting the italian historical banking regulation to instrument for the local presence of bank branches we find that local banking development mitigates income inequality however the finance inequality nexus manifests itself only in relatively advanced areas when we study the structural channels of influence we uncover evidence that banking development can reduce inequality by affecting geographical mobility and urbanization while it has modest effects through the development of material infrastructures and human capital

a moral hazard trap to growth this paper studies the consequences of asymmetric information in the investment sector upon economic growth in this paper the information asymmetry generates a moral hazard problem this moral hazard problem restricts financial arrangements it is shown that these restrictions make even the long run competitive equilibrium income dependent upon history this result also holds in case there is perfect capital mobility however when there is capital mobility the government may be able to intervene in a pareto improving way copyright 1992 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

capital skill complementarity and the redistributive effects of social security reform abstract this paper analyses the general equilibrium implications of reforming pay as you go pension systems in an economy with heterogeneous agents human capital investment and capital skill complementarity it shows that increasing funding by raising savings delivers in the long run higher physical and human capital and therefore higher output but also higher across group wage and income inequality it also shows that the general equilibrium effects induced by this reform affect groups sizes in a way that the higher across group inequality generated by more funding goes with a larger share of the population against redistribution

cheap children and the persistence of poverty this paper develops a theory of fertility that offers an explanation for the persistence of poverty within and across countries if educated individuals have a comparative advantage in raising educated children then parental fertility choice is shown to give rise to a poverty trap in which the poor choose high fertility rates with low investment in child quality moreover the impact of child quality choice on economic performance is amplified by the diluting effect of higher fertility on physical capital accumulation the theory proposes insights regarding the effects of inequality globalisation and life expectancy on economic growth and demographic transitions this paper develops a theory of fertility and child educational choice that offers an explanation for the persistence of poverty within and across countries the joint determination of the quality education and quantity of children in a household is studied under the key assumption that individuals productivity as teachers increases with their own human capital in contrast the minimum time cost associated with raising a child regardless of the child s quality the quantity cost is not affected by parental education as a result the price of child quantity relative to the price of child quality increases with individuals wages in particular for low wage individuals for whom the opportunity cost of time is low children of minimal quality are cheap this assumption therefore generates a comparative advantage for the poor in child quantity whereas high wage educated individuals have a comparative advantage in raising quality children consistent with the well known evidence poor households thus choose relatively high fertility rates with relatively low investment in their offspring s education and therefore their offspring are poor as well in contrast high income families choose low fertility rates with high investment in education and therefore high income persists in the dynasty evidence from the us provided by hanushek 1992 suggests that a trade off between quantity and quality of children does indeed exist hanushek argues that movements in family size could explain over half the variance in some test scores and that the elasticity of achievements with respect to the number of children in the family is 0 03 implying that the annual achievement growth of each child in a family will fall about 2 when a second child is added and about 0 5 when a sixth child is added 1

endogenous growth and the emergence of equity finance abstract this paper characterises the development of equity markets as a dynamic process that both influences and is influenced by the development of the real sector of the economy in overlapping generations economy borrowers seek funds to run risky investment projects by drawing up contracts which may take the form of either equity or debt issue in the presence of information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders the optimal contract is determined by trading off information dilution costs against bankruptcy costs significantly the equilibrium choice of contract depends on the state of the economy which in turn depends on the contracting regime based on this analysis the paper provides a theory of the joint determination of real and financial development with the ability to explain the emergence of a stock market along the path of real development

religious participation and children s education a social capital approach abstract based on the argument in both economic and sociological literature that religion is conducive to children s human capital formation this paper provides a model of religious participation and explores a mechanism that social capital affects children s education a la coleman coleman j s 1988 social capital in the creation of human capital american journal of sociology 94 s95 s120 the model generates several interesting implications which help explain some important stylized facts about education and religion further in a dynamic setting the model shows that there exists a steady state in which individuals allocate a positive amount of time and resources to religious activities thus it complements the existing literature to explain why seemingly unproductive religions can be everlasting

wealth inequality and collective action abstract we study the effect of inequality in the distribution of endowments of private inputs e g land wealth that are complementary in production with collective inputs e g contribution to public goods such as irrigation and extraction from common property resources on efficiency in a class of collective action problems we focus on characterizing the joint surplus maximizing level of inequality making due distinction between contributors and non contributors in a framework that allows us to consider a wide variety of collective action problems ranging from pure public goods to impure public goods to commons we show that while efficiency increases with greater equality within the groups of contributors and non contributors so long the externalities positive or negative are significant there is an optimal degree of inequality between these groups

bubbles crashes and endogenous expectations in experimental spot asset markets1 spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of t 15 or 30 trading periods fourteen of twenty two experiments exhibit price bubbles followed by crashes relative to intrinsic dividend value when traders are experienced this reduces but does not eliminate the probability of a bubble the regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids number of bids minus the number of offers in the previous period p pt a f b 1 o l supports the hypothesis that a e d the one period expected value of the dividend and that f 0 where excess bids is a surrogate measure of excess demand arising from homegrown capital gains losses expectations thus when bt 1 o goes to zero we have convergence to rational expectations in the sense of fama 1970 that arbitrage becomes unprofitable the observed bubble phenomenon can also be interpreted as a form of temporary myopia tirole 1982 from which agents learn that capital gains expectations are only temporarily sustainable ultimately inducing common expectations or priors tirole 1982 four of twenty six experiments all using experienced subjects yield outcomes that appear to the chart s eye to converge early to rational expectations although even in these cases we get 0 and small price fluctuations of a few cents that invite scalping

pension reform and economic performance under imperfect capital markets we consider an overlapping generations model where heterogeneous agents take decisions on consumption and investment in education under the assumption of imperfect capital markets we study how the introduction of a pay as you go and of a fully funded pension scheme affects output and lifetime opportunities and then analyse the impact of a pension reform the standard neutrality result for fully funded pension schemes does not hold in this framework we establish che conditions under which a fully funded scheme is associated with a higher investment in human capital we show that the transition path may involve poverty traps pension reform is nowadays one of the dominant issues in policy discussion and intervention in developing and transition economies as well as in western countries in eastern europe the process of conversion from centrally planned to decentralised market economies calls for a revision of social security systems problems of financial sustainability and equity towards future generations are the basis for the changes in the existing pension schemes of some western countries the choice of privatising social security undertaken by some developing countries see chile for instance is often referred to as the example to follow it is held that moving from public pay as you go pension schemes which nowadays represent the dominant organisational form for old age security to private fully funded ones would raise savings and eliminate factor market distortions therefore enhancing long term growth and welfare levels although the impact of social security on economic growth is the major concern emerging from policy discussion the limited direct application of economic literature to the analysis of the impact of old age security arrangements on growth shows that economic theory has not developed yet a set of tools suitable for this kind of investigation in this paper we restrict our attention to a particular aspect of this policy issue namely we address the following question what are the effects of a pension reform on lifetime opportunities and output to investigate this issue we first analyse the effects of the introduction of a pay as you go pension scheme and of a fully funded one on income levels and income distribution both in the short and in the long run we then proceed to discuss the impact on the same variables of the transition from a pay as you go pension scheme to

finance and income inequality in kazakhstan evidence since transition with policy suggestions abstractkazakhstan gained independence in 1990 and has undergone significant changes in economic social and trade conditions since then we analyse the effects of financial development on income inequality in kazakhstan incorporating economic growth foreign investment education and the role of democracy as the drivers we establish that income inequality in kazakhstan is impaired by financial development in summary we send three messages for policy purposes first strengthening financial sector is necessary to close the gap between haves and have nots second attracting fdi beyond the hydrocarbon sector is necessary to alleviate inequality finally adaptation of education system to the new social and economic environment would help in improving income distribution

decision making with naive advice in many of the decisions we make we rely on the advice of others who have preceded us for example before we buy a car choose a dentist choose a spouse find a school for our children sign on to a retirement plan etc we usually ask the advice of others who have experience with such decisions the same is true when we make major financial decisions here people easily take advice from their fellow workers or relatives as to how to choose stock balance a portfolio or save for their child s education although some advice we get is from experts most of the time we make our decisions relying only on the rather uninformed word of mouth advice we get from our friends or neighbors we call this aive advice in this paper i will outline a set of experimental results that indicate that word of mouth advice is a very powerful force in shaping the decisions that people make and tends to push those decisions in the direction of the predictions of the rational theory

cross country evidence on the distributional impact of fiscal policy abstractthis article provides new evidence on the distributional effects of fiscal policy using data on a panel of oecd economies over the last four decades we study how four measures of income in

financial frictions occupational choice and economic inequality we develop a quantitative theory of entrepreneurship income inequality and nancial frictions disciplined with household data from brazil the theory extends lucas 1978 by modeling heterogeneity in two skills working and managerial skills consistently with the evidence the theory implies three occupational categories workers employers and self employed entrepreneurs we nd that the correlation between working and managerial skills matters importantly for the distribution of earnings across occupations and for the quantitative implications of nancial frictions we also nd

is inequality harmful for growth comment endogenous growth models have reignited interest in institutional and path dependencies in the economic growth process one reason for the interest in endogenous growth models is that they may explain why countries consistently grow at different rates in this vein it has been recently proposed that greater economic inequality reduces future economic growth an important paper in this literature is by torsten persson and guido tabellini 1994 who will be referred to as pt pt s model shows why it is reasonable to expect a negative relationship between inequality and future economic growth moreover their empirical evidence is consistent with their contention if pt s findings are robust to other data sets there would be important policy implications for example they imply that policy makers should not only be concerned with the distributional implications of government policies for political and social reasons but also because income distribution has long run effects on economic growth this indicates that greater u s income inequality since the early 1970 s may have resulted in lower subsequent economic growth however pt s results are somewhat fragile to various specifications suggesting that they should be replicated with different data sets and over different time periods pt p 617 with these implications in mind this study employs data from a panel of u s states to further explore the relationship between economic growth and income inequality in what follows section i summarizes pt s study and discusses how this comment extends their findings the empirical implementation and results in section ii directly examine the link between overall income inequality and growth section iii expands the analysis to alternative measures of income distribution and government policy one emphasis in section iii is the distinction between how the overall income distribution especially at the tails influences economic growth from how the relative well being of the median voter affects economic growth section iv provides some concluding discussion

an experimental analysis of contingent capital with market price triggers we report an experiment that evaluates three market based regimes for triggering the conversion of contingent capital bonds into equity a fixed trigger regime where a price threshold triggers mandatory conversion a regulator regime where regulators make conversion decisions based on prices and a prediction market regime where regulators also observe a market that predicts conversion consistent with theory we observe inefficiencies and conversion errors in the fixed trigger and regulator regimes the prediction market somewhat improves the regulator s performance but inefficiencies and conversion errors persist the regulator regime has conversion errors over the widest range of shocks

land reforms poverty reduction and economic growth evidence from india recognition of the importance of institutions that provide security of property rights and relatively equal access to economic resources to a broad cross section of society has renewed interest in the potential of asset redistribution including land reforms empirical analysis of the impact of such policies is however scant and often contradictory this paper uses panel household data from india together with state level variation in the implementation of land reform to address some of the deficiencies of earlier studies the results suggest that land reform had a significant and positive impact on income growth and accumulation of human and physical capital the paper draws policy implications especially from the fact that the observed impact of land reform seems to have declined over time

the multiple unit double auction the note outlines institutional features of an open outcry market that permit multiple unit or block trades the purpose of the note is to introduce the process as a tool to be used in economics experiments the detailed rules governing the multiple unit double auction muda are stated for the case where offers are tendered by voice as opposed to through a computer the results of markets that use the rules are reported as a demonstration that convergence to equilibrium price traditionally observed in experimental markets remains with the use of the muda process

dualism and macroeconomic volatility this paper develops a simple macroeconomic model that shows that combining capital market imperfections together with unequal access to investment opportunities across individuals can generate endogenous and permanent euctuations in aggregate gdp investment and interest rates reducing inequality of access may be a necessary condition for macroeconomic stabilization moreover countercyclical escal policies have a role to play in our model savings are underutilized in slumps because of the limited debt capacity of potential investors therefore the government should issue public debt during recessions in order to absorb those idle savings and enance investment subsidies or tax cuts for investors the most important single fact about saving and investment activities is that in our industrial society they are generally done by different people and for different reasons for years there might tend to be too little investment leading to deeation losses excess capacity and unemployment for other years there might tend to be too much investment leading to periods of chronic ineation unless prudent and proper public policies in the escal and monetary eelds are followed paul a samuelson economics 8th edition 1970 pp 196 198

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

should higher education subsidies depend on parental income textabstractin many countries student grants tuition fees and subsidized loans depend on parental income this paper examines the efficiency and distributional effects of such conditioning and assesses whether it is optimal practice when the government wants to reduce after tax income inequality in the most efficient manner increasing the mean level of education among the work force compresses wage differentials by level of education and thereby the pre tax income distribution hence subsidizing education may be part of an optimal redistribution policy however education subsidies mainly benefit high ability students limiting their redistributive virtues conditioning education subsidies on parental income may enable the government to reduce inframarginal subsidies mainly benefiting high ability students while preserving the marginal subsidy and thus the favourable effect on the mean education level which leads to wage compression

workers machines and economic growth this paper models technology adoption as replacing workers by machines which perform the same job in the production process the paper shows that such modelling of technology adoption affects significantly the analysis of economic growth this model can explain large and persistent international differences in output levels and growth rates caused by small differences in underlying parameters

pecuniary emulation inequality and growth abstract we study a two class growth model in which agents care about both consumption and the social perception of their wealth rank the latter determines the social status enjoyed by agents social perceptions are based upon noisy signals of wealth and in equilibrium there is incomplete separation of classes the steady growth rate of the economy increases with the full information status differential between classes and contrary to the growth model without status it is affected by the initial level of wealth inequality both too much equality and too much inequality are detrimental to economic growth

land and the transition from a dual to a modern economy tenurial contracts in agriculture can be an initial source of wealth accumulation for dynasties of poor credit constrained individuals the income from such contracts can be invested in education of offspring who then can find work in the formal manufacturing sector this process allows the economy to develop into a modern economy with a large manufacturing sector an excessive number of poor individuals competing for scarce land however drives up the rental price of land which then slows the process of accumulation and forces the economy to converge to a less efficient dual equilibrium in such cases a policy of land redistribution coupled with a temporary education subsidy may be needed to push the economy to a modern equilibrium

what constrains financial inclusion for women evidence from indian micro data summary the role and relevance of gender in financial inclusion has been an evolving area of research in recent times although there are several cross country studies on this aspect few within country studies have addressed this issue in a comprehensive manner in this context exploiting disaggregated household level data for india we analyze the interface between gender and finance more specifically we examine whether gender matters for financial inclusion and if so what are the possible factors that influence this relationship our findings suggest significant disparity in both the access to as well as the use of finance by gender on average female headed households are 8 less likely to access formal finance and 6 more likely to access informal finance as compared to households that are headed by males after taking into account other relevant household and state level characteristics that are important in explaining financial access by households similar evidence carries over to the use of finance households headed by female use 20 less cash loans as compared to male headed households subsequently we investigate the possible channels which impede financial inclusion for female headed households our analysis highlights that for female headed households education and wages are more relevant in explaining the access to finance whereas political and social factors are much more germane in explaining the use of finance

why are stabilizations delayed when a stabilization has significant distributional implications e g tax increases to eliminate a large budget deficit socioeconomic groups may attempt to shift the burden of stabilization onto other groups the process leading to stabilization becomes a war of attrition each group attempting to wait the others out and stabilization occurring only when one group concedes and bears a disproportionate share of the burden the authors solve for the expected time of stabilization in a model of rational delay and relate it to several political and economic variables they motivate this approach and its results by comparison to historical and current episodes copyright 1991 by american economic association

political equilibrium income distribution and growth this paper analyzes the impact of income distribution on growth when investment in human capital is the source of growth and individuals vote over the degree of redistribution in the economy the model has three main features first very different patterns of income distribution are conducive to high growth at different levels of per capita income second growth is associated with an externality whereby investment in human capital by one group increases the productivity of other groups thus potentially enabling them to invest in human capital third the initial pattern of income distribution and the resulting political equilibrium are crucial in determining whether the transmission of this externality is promoted in which case growth is enhanced or prevented in which case growth is stopped using a non overlapping generations model with voting i derive several empirical implications in particular the model implies an inverted u relation between levels of inequality and levels of income in cross sections but not necessarily in time series a result that seems consistent with a number of empirical studies

market uncertainty correlated and sunspot equilibria in imperfectly competitive economies first version received june 1988 final version accepted november 1990 eds an imperfectly competitive economy is very prone to market uncertainty including uncertainty about the liquidity or thickness of markets we show in particular that there exist stochastic equilibrium outcomes in nonstochastic market games if and only if the endowments are not pareto optimal we also provide a link between extrinsic uncertainty arising in games e g correlated equilibria and extrinsic uncertainty in market economies e g sunspot equilibria a correlated equilibria to the market game is either a sunspot equilibrium or a non sunspot equilibrium to the related securities games but the converse is not true in general

the 2005 lawrence r klein lecture emergent class structure this article presents a model of the emergent class structure in which a society inhabited by inherently identical households may be endogenously split into the rich bourgeoisie and the poor proletariat for some parameter values the model has no steady state where all households remain equally wealthy in this case the model predicts emergent class structure or the rise of class societies even if every household starts with the same amount of wealth the society will experience symmetry breaking and will be polarized into two classes in steady state where the rich maintain a high level of wealth partly due to the presence of the poor who have no choice but to work for the rich at a wage rate strictly lower than the fair value of labor the nonexistence of the equal steady state means that a one shot redistribution of wealth would not be effective as wealth inequality and the class structure would always reemerge thus the class structure is an inevitable feature of capitalism for other parameter values on the other hand the model has the unique steady state which is characterized by perfect equality in this case the model predicts dissipating class structure or the fall of class societies even if the society starts with significant wealth inequality labor demand by the rich employers pushes up the wage rate so much that workers will escape from the poverty and eventually catch up with the rich eliminating wealth inequality and the class structure in the long run in an extension we introduce self employment which not only provides the poor with an alternative to working for the rich but also provides the rich with an alternative to investment that creates jobs due to this dual nature of self employment the effects of self employment turn out to be quite subtle yet within the present framework it is possible to offer a complete characterization of the steady states even in the presence of self employment

welfare effects of unfunded pension systems when labor supply is endogenous abstract a mandatory unfunded pension system can lead to welfare losses if the contributions are levied in such a way that the labor supply decision of the individuals is distorted this is shown in an overlapping generations model for a closed economy furthermore it is shown that under certain conditions a gradual abolition of unfuded pensions using lump sum contributions in the transition phase can lead to an intergenerational pareto improvement thus the paper extends a result recently derived by homburg for a small open economy to the closed economy case

reaching out access to and use of banking services across countries the authors 1 present new indicators of banking sector penetration across 99 countries based on a survey of bank regulatory authorities 2 show that these indicators predict household and firm use of banking services 3 explore the association between the outreach indicators and measures of financial institutional and infrastructure development across countries and 4 relate these banking outreach indicators to measures of firms financing constraints in particular they find that greater outreach is correlated with standard measures of financial development as well as with economic activity controlling for these factors the authors find that better communication and transport infrastructure and better governance are also associated with greater outreach government ownership of financial institutions translates into lower access while more concentrated banking systems are associated with greater outreach finally firms in countries with higher branch and atm penetration and higher use of loan services report lower financing obstacles thus linking banking sector outreach to the alleviation of firms financing constraints

does income polarization affect economic growth the case of the european regions ezcurra r does income polarization affect economic growth the case of the european regions regional studies this paper examines the relationship between income polarization and economic growth in the regions of the european union over the period 1993 2003 the results indicate that the level of income polarization is negatively associated with regional growth this finding is in fact robust to various alternative specifications including a number of additional explanatory variables such as initial per capita gross domestic product industry mix human capital stock population density or market potential furthermore it should be noted that the observed negative correlation between polarization and economic performance does not depend on the number of groups used to analyse the degree of income stratification within the sample regions ezcurra r la polarisation des revenus affecte t elle la croissance economique le cas des regions europeennes regional studies cet article etudie les relations en

the role of acquisition of foreign technology in taiwanese growth this article argues that one source of taiwan s exceptionally rapid growth rate in value added per worker in manufacturing was its ability to tap the accumulated technology of more advanced industrial nations the impact of technology embodied in new equipment is quantified the role of knowledge transfers from purchasers of exports consultants technology licensing agreements returning taiwanese nationals educated abroad and foreign direct investment is documented it is argued that considerable local effort was expended to assimilate successfully the transferred technology copyright 2001 by oxford university press

education democracy and growth abstract this note presents a model of endogenous growth where redistribution determined by a political equilibrium is in the form of public education it is shown that there need not be a negative relationship between growth and redistribution as public education increases the level of human capital in the conomy and at the same time tends to produce a more even income distribution

income distribution and investment abstract after being the subject of a heated debate during the sixties and the seventies the relation between income distribution and growth has received renewed attention in recent years the new literature has focused on three channels whereby this relation can occur imperfections in capital markets voting on fiscal policy and political instability in all these approaches growth in or outside the steady state is the result of investment in physical or human capital therefore these theories can also be stated and tested in terms of the effects of income distribution on investment this has the double advantage of reducing the complexity of a necessarily brief survey and of bringing out more clearly the main elements of novelty in this literature so far empirical implementations of these theories have in general been restricted to reduced form regressions of growth or equivalently investment on income distribution and other variables in this survey i take a step further and test the three approaches by explicitly estimating the role of the imperfections in capital markets of government expenditure and of political instability in mediating the effects of income distribution on investment

social security national policies with international implications social security policies within individual countries are determined independently by national governments but the resulting outcome is inefficient compared with what would result from the international co ordination of policies this is because national social security policies produce international externalities via their effects on world interest rates an illustrative example suggests that the gains from co ordination are potentially significant virtually all countries operate social security or redistributive policies each chooses policies independently and to my knowledge no one either in a policymaking context or in the large literature on international policy co ordination has suggested that such decisions would benefit from international coordination 1 however a simple argument suggests that independent national social security policies are inefficient more specifically in the long run national governments make policy decisions which are too egalitarian this holds provided that social security lowers national saving in this case each national government faces a trade off between income redistribution and national saving and can be assumed to locate at the nationally optimal point on this trade off taking as given the world interest rate the latter is clearly not independent of the combined effect of all countries policies however if all countries expand social security the resulting fall in world saving will raise the world interest rate with adverse consequences for each national economy each country rationally ignores its own small contribution to the global outcome if this international externality were internalised by co ordination countries would relocate on the trade off between income redistribution and national saving demonstrating the existence of an externality says nothing about its quantitative significance i address this with an example which focuses on pay as you go payg retirement pensions in an economy with a mixture of forward looking and myopic individuals the pensions prevent destitution among retired myopes and thus effectively redistribute life time welfare but they also lower saving because of payg financing for all parameter values considered international co ordination of pensions policy decisions generates welfare gains which are larger for many parameter values substantially larger than recent estimates of the welfare gains from either the entire elimination of all cyclical fluctuations or the reduction of inflation and nominal interest rates from suboptimally high to optimal levels hence the issues addressed in the paper are quantitatively significant when judged against other frequently advocated i am grateful to two anonymous referees for helpful comments on earlier versions they are not responsible for the present version

intergenerational persistence of earnings the role of early and college education recent empirical evidence from the united states indicates a high degree of persistence in earnings across generations designing effective public policies to increase social mobility requires identifying and measuring the major sources of persistence and inequality in earnings we provide a quantitative model of intergenerational human capital transmission that focuses on three sources innate ability early education and college education we find that approximately one half of the intergenerational correlation in earnings is accounted for by parental investment in education in particular early education we show that these results have important implications for education policy

human capital risk and economic growth this paper develops a tractable incomplete markets model of economic growth in which households invest in risk free physical capital and risky human capital the paper shows that a reduction in uninsurable idiosyncratic labor income risk decreases physical capital investment but increases human capital investment growth and welfare a quantitative analysis based on a calibrated version of the model reveals that these effects are substantial and of the same order of magnitude as the effects of distortionary income taxation the analysis further suggests that government sponsored severance payments to displaced workers increase growth and welfare even if these payments have to be e nanced through distortionary income taxation

financial development growth and the distribution of income a paradigm is presented in which both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures thus financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the goldsmith mckinnon shaw view on economic development the model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the kuznet hypothesis in particular in the transition from a primitive slow growing economy to a developed fast growing one a nation passes through a stage in which the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens

inequality and growth uncovering the main conclusions from the empirics abstractthis paper is a critical survey of the empirical literature on the effects of inequality on economic growth we conclude that it is most likely that the disparities found in the results are due to differences in the type of countries and time periods included in the samples the variable used to measure inequality the structure of the data and the estimation techniques these findings suggest that the mechanisms that link inequality to growth are likely to operate differently in different circumstances an element that may offer important guidelines for both policy makers and researchers

nonspeculative bubbles in experimental asset markets lack of common knowledge of rationality vs actual irrationality we report the results of an experiment designed to study the role of speculation in the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets in a setting in which speculation is not possible bubbles and crashes are observed the results suggest that the departures from fundamental values are not caused by the lack of common knowledge of rationality leading to speculation but rather by behavior that itself exhibits elements of irrationality much of the trading activity that accompanies bubble formation in markets where speculation is possible is due to the fact that there is no other activity available for participants in the experiment

landownership concentration and the expansion of education we study the relationship between large landownership concentration and the expansion of mass education in nineteenth century prussia cross sectional estimates show a negative association between landownership concentration and enrollment rates fixed effects panel estimates indicate that regions with an initially stronger landownership concentration exhibit increasing enrollment rates this relationship is not driven by differences in the supply of schooling we argue that the implementation of agricultural reforms including the stepwise abolition of serfdom is an important driver of the change in enrollment the results are consistent with the interpretation that emancipation from labor coercion increased the private demand for education

is democracy more expropriative than dictatorship tocquevillian wisdom revisited abstract we reexamine the incentive effect of political democracy on the tax rate by defining a political regime over two dimensions the extent of the franchise and the extent that the redistribution of tax revenues is biased towards the rich standard tocquevillian models assume that even if there is limited franchise there is no redistribution bias from this it follows that democracy is more expropriative than oligarchy because a poorer median voter opts for higher taxes introducing the realistic assumption of a redistribution bias we find a countervailing effect democratization decreases exploitation by the rich on the disenfranchised poor since tax revenues are redistributed over a larger base the median voter may gain less from redistributive taxation we call this the olson effect

payoff inequity reduces the effectiveness of correlated equilibrium recommendations we examine theoretically and experimentally how individuals willingness to follow third party recommendations in 2 2 games is affected by payoff asymmetry we consider six versions of battle of the sexes recommendations imply monetary payoffs that are equal ex ante but unequal ex post so although following recommendations constitutes a nash equilibrium under standard preferences sufficiently inequity averse players can rationally disobey a recommendation that would lead to a very unfavourable payoff distribution as long as the cost of doing so is not too large our theoretical model incorporates inequity aversion along with level k reasoning our main experimental result is consistent with the model as either payoff asymmetry increases or the cost of disobeying an unfavourable recommendation decreases subjects are more likely to disobey recommendations

access to finance an unfinished agenda recent data compilations show that many poor and non poor people in many developing countries face a high degree of financial exclusion and high barriers in access to finance theory and empirical evidence point to the critical role that improved access to finance has in promoting growth and reducing income inequality an extensive literature shows the channels through which finance promotes enterprise growth and improves aggregate resource allocation there is less evidence at the household level however and on the effectiveness of policies to overcome financial exclusion the article summarizes recent efforts to measure and analyze the impact of access to finance and discusses the unfinished research agenda

learning to believe in simple equilibria in a complex olg economy evidence from the lab abstract we set up a laboratory experiment to empirically investigate equilibrium selection in a complex economic environment we use the overlapping generation model of grandmont 1985 which displays multiple perfect foresight equilibria including periodic and chaotic dynamics the equilibrium selection problem is not solved under learning as each outcome is predicted by at least one existing learning theory we find that subjects in the lab systematically coordinate on an equilibrium despite the complexity of the environment coordination only happens on simple equilibria in this case the steady state or the period two cycle a result which is predicted only if the subjects follow simple learning rules this suggests that relevant perfect foresight equilibria should be robust to the use of simple rules

how do corporate governance model differences affect foreign direct investment in emerging economies this study examines the impact of national corporate governance models on inward foreign direct investment fdi in emerging economies we consider three potential mechanisms and conduct an empirical test of how family ownership and control in large group affiliated firms in taiwan affect joint venture investment from us and japanese firms during the period 1988 1998 results support the neo institutional perspective of fdi developed in this study the home country corporate governance models are likely to shape foreign firms choice of local partners

intergenerational transfers production and income distribution abstract we consider an overlapping generations economy where the aggregative production process uses physical capital and human capital intergenerational transfers from parents to their children are motivated by altruism we distinguish between two types of transfers investment of parents in the education of their offspring and capital transfer the gift bequest motive we show that the intensity of each type of altruism and hence the composition of the two types of transfers affect significantly the equilibrium output and the intragenerational income distributions comparing competitive equilibria from the same initial distributions of capital transfers and human capital we derive a the economy with the higher education inclined altruism attains lower output and more equal intragenerational income distributions if either the production function s elasticity of substitution is not large or the altruism is weak b for more bequest inclined altruism the effects are usually reversed c under public provision of education higher bequest inclined altruism results in lower output and less equal distribution of income in all dates

focusing effect and the poverty trap abstract i build a dynamic consumption savings model in which agents choices are distorted by the focusing effect agents overweight the utility of goods in which their options differ more i show that the consumption savings choice depends both on the marginal return on savings and on the total return on savings implying that the incentive to save may increase with the initial level of wealth as a consequence a salience based poverty trap may exist when the marginal return on savings is sufficiently high and sufficiently flat i also consider the case of a perfect credit market and show that a poverty trap may emerge when the salience of consumption is bounded above i discuss policy implications in particular imposing upon an agent a punishment for decreasing savings below a threshold leads to a higher level of savings even when the threshold triggering the punishment is not binding

price dynamics in general equilibrium experiments general equilibrium ge theory faces several related challenges classical theories of out of equilibrium adjustment are intuitive but implausibly centralized further standard restrictions on individual preferences place little structure on aggregate excess demand functions amongst other issues this fact implies that economies can be unstable under classical dynamics and thus instability appears to be an unavoidable feature of ge theory this paper recounts laboratory studies of ge environments which reveal that classical theories of dynamics do in fact organize market activity surprisingly well these experiments suggest that the walrasian auctioneer for example appears to be a constructive abstraction and that instability should be accommodated within theory rather than circumscribed laboratory applications of ge theory focused on issues beyond stability and dynamics are also briefly surveyed

financial market imperfections labour market imperfections and business cycles a greenwald stiglitz 1993a style rational expectations business cycle model is introduced in which uncorrelated productivity shocks or monetary shocks generate autocorrelated employment fluctuations due to financial constraints the propagation mechanism is carefully modelled because of capital market imperfections only standard debt contracts are traded firms labour demand changes in response to changes in their balance sheet position because of labour market imperfections efficiency wages employment and unemployment fluctuate in response to shifts in labour demand the virtue of the model is its simplicity despite the fact that unemployment is endogenous the dynamic behaviour of the model under rational expectations can be characterised analytically

the power of sunspots an experimental analysis abstract in an experiment using a coordination game with extrinsic random signals sunspots we systematically vary the stochastic process generating these signals and measure how signals affect behavior we find that sunspot equilibria emerge naturally with salient public signals however highly correlated private signals can also lead to sunspot driven behavior even when this is not an equilibrium private signals reduce the power of public signals as sunspot variables the higher the correlation of extrinsic signals and the more easily they can be aggregated the more powerful these signals are in distracting actions from the action that minimizes strategic uncertainty

sunspots in the laboratory we show that extrinsic or nonfundamental uncertainty influences markets in a controlled environment this work provides the first direct evidence of sunspot equilibria these equilibria require a common understanding of the semantics of the sunspot variable and they appear to be sensitive to the flow of information sunspots always occur in a closed book call market but they happen only occasionally in a double auction where inframarginal bids and offers are observable

experimental evidence of bank runs as pure coordination failures abstract we investigate how coordination requirement measured by the coordination parameter affects the occurrence of miscoordination based bank runs in controlled laboratory environments we identify an indeterminacy region of the coordination parameter such that games with the parameter within the region have varying coordination outcomes and exhibit persistent path dependence experimental economies with the parameter above below the region stay close or converge to the run non run equilibrium switches between the two equilibria occur even with fixed economic fundamentals the experimental results are well accounted for by a version of the evolutionary algorithm that uses experimentation rates estimated from the experimental data

risk taking behavior in the presence of nonconvex asset dynamics a growing literature on poverty traps emphasizes the links between multiple equilibria and risk avoidance however multiple equilibria may also foster risk taking behavior by some poor people we illustrate this idea with a simple analytical model in which people with different wealth and ability endowments make investment and risky activity choices in the presence of known nonconvex asset dynamics this model underscores a crucial distinction between familiar static concepts of risk aversion and forward looking dynamic risk responses to nonconvex asset dynamics even when unobservable preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion observed behavior may suggest that risk aversion actually increases with wealth near perceived dynamic asset thresholds although high ability individuals are not immune from poverty traps they can leverage their capital endowments more effectively than lower ability types and are therefore less likely to take seemingly excessive risks in general linkages between behavioral responses and wealth dynamics often seem to run in both directions both theoretical and empirical poverty trap research could benefit from making this two way linkage more explicit jel d81 o12 d90

ability biased technological transition wage inequality and economic growth thispaper develops a growthmodel characterizedbyability biasedtechnological transition in which the evolution of technology education attainment and wage inequality is consistent with the observed pattern in the united states and other advanced countries over the past several decades it argues that an increase in the rate of technological progress raises the return to ability and simultaneously generates an increase in wage inequality between and within groups of skilled and unskilled workers an increase in average wages of skilled workers a temporary decline in average wages of unskilled workers an increase in education and a productivity transitory slowdown

are sunspots learnable an experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model abstract we conduct experiments with human subjects in a model with a positive production externality in which productivity is a nondecreasing function of the average level of employment of other firms the model has three steady states and a sunspot equilibrium that fluctuates between the high and low steady states steady states are payoff ranked low values give lower profits than higher values we investigate whether subjects can learn a sunspot equilibrium we observe coordination on the extrinsic announcements in our experimental economies cases of apparent convergence to the low and high steady states are also observed

credit constraints inequality and the growth gains from trade abstract this paper tests the hypothesis that in the presence of credit constraints higher wealth inequality affects negatively the growth gains from trade liberalisation variations in the growth rate of value added decomposed in the growth rate of the number of establishments and the growth rate in average size of manufacturing industries in 34 developing countries before and after trade liberalisation are used to study the effects of inequality on the difference in growth under liberalised and nonliberalised regimes the results show that the number of firms in industries with high dependence on external finance in countries with higher inequality grow significantly slower in both statistical and economic terms than in industries with low dependence on external finance in countries with lower inequality following a trade liberalisation relative to the closed economy period

income distribution in the dynamic two factor trade model the issue of the effects of trade on personal income distribution has remained largely unexamined this paper describes an overlapping generations 2 x 2 model with a bequest motive and heterogeneous agents in order to examine the problem in this dynamic setting trade leads to both short run and long run reductions increases in inequality in labor capital abundant countries if the investment good is capital intensive if the consumption good is capital intensive the short run effects continue to hold but the long run effects are ambiguous copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

early and late human capital investments borrowing constraints and the family we develop a dynastic human capital investment framework to study the importance of family borrowing constraints and uninsured labor market risk as well as the process of intergenerational ability

foreign firms and chinese employment this paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment fdi on employment in the chinese manufacturing sector as one of the world s largest recipients of fdi china has arguably benefited from foreign multinational enterprises in various respects however one of the main challenges for china and other developing countries is job creation and the effect of fdi on employment is uncertain the effect depends on the amount of jobs created within foreign firms as well as the effect of fdi on employment in domestic firms we analyse fdi and employment in china using a large sample of manufacturing firms for the period 1998 2004 our results show that fdi has positive effects on employment growth the relatively high employment growth in foreign firms is associated with their firm characteristics and their high survival rate employment growth is also relatively high in private domestic chinese firms there also seems to be a positive indirect effect of fdi on employment in private domestically owned firms presumably caused by spillovers

dollars dollars everywhere nor any dime to lend credit limit constraints on financial sector absorptive capacity we exploit an unexpected inflow of liquidity in an emerging market to study how capital is intermediated to firms we find that backward looking credit limit constraints imposed by banks make it difficult for firms to borrow despite readily available bank liquidity healthy aggregate demand and a sharply falling cost of capital the resulting aggregate failure to extend and retain capital in the economy suggests that agency costs that force banks to rely on sticky balance sheet based credit limits prevent emerging economies from effectively intermediating capital

risk bearing and the theory of income distribution this paper develops the stochastic theory of distribution with a dynamic model which focuses on the role of incomplete insurance in generating inequality unlike previous work our approach takes explicit account of the reason for market incompleteness in modeling agents behaviour in particular the amount of risk borne is endogenous using a model of growth with altruism in which agents are risk averse and there is moral hazard we show that lineage wealth follows a markov process which converges globally to an ergodic distribution this also represents the long run population distribution of wealth we discuss the role of particular assumptions such as availability of production loans and unboundedness of utility in yielding the qualitative properties of the distribution of wealth the choice of occupation and the prevention of poverty traps