tariff effects on mnc decisions to engage in intra firm and arm s length trade using confidential firm level data from the bureau of economic analysis bea on activities of u s multinational corporations mncs and their canadian affiliates we study the dramatic growth of intra firm and arm s length u s canada trade over the 1984 95 period we find that decisions to engage in intra firm and arm s length trade are essentially unrelated to tariff and transport cost reductions over this sample period thus we find that the increase in trade occurred almost entirely on the intensive rather than the extensive margin this is consistent with case study evidence in keane and feinberg 2006 where mnc executives consistently indicate that the modest tariff reductions of the 1984 95 period were not sufficient to justify fixed costs of overhauling international supply chains our results have important implications for recent influential models of international trade that rely on sensitivity of intra firm trade to tariffs at the extensive margin to explain how small tariff declines could have led to the explosion of intra firm trade since the 1980s we also find that initial conditions i e 1983 tariffs are uncorrelated with whether firms engaged in intra firm or arm s length trade activity at the start of the sample period this result is surprising as it implies that firms industries with a greater propensity to engage in trade were not in general successful at lobbying for more favourable tariff treatment a l aide de donnees confidentielles au niveau de la firme du bureau of economic analysis bea a propos des activites des firmes plurinationales fpn americaines et de leurs succursales canadiennes on etudie la croissance dramatique du commerce usa canada tant intra firme qu a bout de bras pour la periode 1984 95 il appert que les decisions de s engager dans l un et l autre commerce sont fondamentalement non reliees aux reductions des couts de transport et des tarifs au cours de cette periode on decouvre que l accroissement du commerce s est produit presqu entierement a la marge intensive plutot qu a la marge extensive c est en ligne avec les resultats de l etude de cas de keane et feinberg 2006 ou les cadres des fpn ont systematiquement indique que les modestes reductions de tarifs entre 1984 et 1995 n etaient pas suffisantes pour justifier les couts fixes impliques par la modification de leurs chaines de production internationales ces resultats ont des implications importantes pour certains modeles influents de commerce international qui sont ancres dans une sensibilite du commerce intra firme aux tarifs a la marge extensive pour expliquer comment de faibles chutes de tarifs ont pu engendrer une explosion du commerce intra firme depuis les annees 80 on montre aussi que les conditions initiales e g les tarifs de 1983 ne sont pas co reliees avec le fait que la firme est engagee ou non dans l un ou l autre commerce en debut de periode le resultat est surprenant parce qu il implique que firmes et industries ayant une plus grande propension a commercer n ont pas eu de succes dans leur lobby pour obtenir un traitement tarifaire plus favorable

when is external debt sustainable the article empirically examines the determinants of debt distress defined as periods in which countries resort to any of three forms of exceptional finance significant arrears on external debt paris club rescheduling and non concessional international monetary fund lending probit regressions show that three factors explain a substantial fraction of the cross country and time series variation in the incidence of debt distress the debt burden the quality of policies and institutions and shocks the relative importance of these factors varies with the level of development these results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and the core specifications have substantial out of sample predictive power the quantitative implications of these results are examined for the lending strategies of official creditors

entry into pharmaceutical submarkets a bayesian panel probit analysis summary we study entry into pharmaceutical submarkets by using a dynamic panel probit model we develop a bayesian version of wooldridge s approach to dealing with unobserved heterogeneity we distinguish between greenfield entry entry with first product and undifferentiated entry which may take the form of introducing further products we extend the standard reduced form model to consider company size in the submarket and across all submarkets we find that greenfield and undifferentiated entries have different determinants that global and submarket size measures have different effects and that sunk costs often have positive effects on entry due to a commitment mechanism copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

when where and how to estimate persistent and transient efficiency in stochastic frontier panel data models abstract in this paper we examine robustness of a recently developed panel data stochastic frontier model that allows for both persistent and transient also known as long run and short run or time invariant and time varying inefficiency along with random firm effects heterogeneity and noise we address some concerns that the practitioners might have about this model first given that there are two random time invariant components persistent inefficiency and firm effects the concern is whether the model can accurately identify them and if so how precisely can the model estimate them second there are two time varying random components transient inefficiency and noise and the concern is whether the model can separate noise from transient inefficiency and if so how precisely can the model estimate transient inefficiency third how well are persistent and transient inefficiency estimated under different scenarios viz under different configurations of the variance parameters of the four random components given that the model is quite complex relatively new and becoming quite popular in the panel efficiency literature we feel that there is need for a detailed simulation study to examine when where and how one can use this model with confidence to estimate persistent and transient inefficiency

the british low wage sector and the employment prospects of the unemployed abstractare low wages a way for the unemployed to switch to higher paying jobs using data from the british household panel survey the labour market dynamics of unemployed low paid and higher paid employed men are analysed moreover the respective un employment duration and occupational skill level are accounted for results show that in general low wages significantly reduce the risk of future unemployment and increase the chances of ascending the salary ladder especially in the case of long term unemployment 360 days furthermore the occupational skill level has a substantial influence on the upward mobility of low paid jobs individuals working in the initial period in a low paid and higher skilled occupation have on average an 11 percentage points higher probability of entering higher pay compared to when working in a low paid and low skilled occupation

strikes arbitration and teacher salaries a behavioral analysis this study uses bacharach and lawler s behavioral theory of bargaining to derive hypotheses about the impact of strikes and compulsory interest arbitration on teacher salaries those hypotheses are tested with data sets on illinois and iowa school districts and on a national sample of teachers drawn from the current population survey the results suggest that strike use affects teacher salaries but that arbitration use does not additional tests indicate that the availability of both arbitration and of the legal or de facto right to strike has similar effects on salary levels increasing salaries by about 10 percent the findings also suggest that arbitration and the strike are used as defensive rather than offensive strategies

state dependence and heterogeneity in health using a bias corrected fixed effects estimator this paper considers the estimation of a dynamic ordered probit of self assessed health status with two fixed effects one in the linear index equation and one in the cut points the two fixed effects allow us to robustly control for heterogeneity in unobserved health status and in reporting behaviour even though we can not separate both sources of heterogeneity the contributions of this paper are twofold first it contributes to the literature that studies the determinants and dynamics of self assessed health measures second this paper contributes to the recent literature on bias correction in nonlinear panel data models with fixed effects by applying and studying the finite sample properties of two of the existing proposals to our model the most direct and easily applicable correction to our model is not the best one and has important biases in our sample sizes

comment sequential moment restrictions in panel data 1992 comment sequential moment restrictions in panel data journal of business economic statistics vol 10 no 1 pp 20 26

measuring state dependence in individual poverty histories when there is feedback to employment status and household composition this paper argues that the assumption of strict exogeneity which is usually invoked in estimating models of state dependence with unobserved heterogeneity is violated in the poverty context as important variables determining contemporaneous poverty status in particular employment status and household composition are likely to be influenced by past poverty outcomes therefore a model of state dependence is developed that explicitly allows for possible feedback effects from past poverty to future employment and household composition outcomes empirical results based on data from the german socio economic panel gsoep suggest that there are indeed such feedback effects and that failure to take them into account may lead to biased estimates of the state dependence effect copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity i study a simple widely applicable approach to handling the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear unobserved effects models rather than attempting to obtain the joint distribution of all outcomes of the endogenous variables i propose finding the distribution conditional on the initial value and the observed history of strictly exogenous explanatory variables the approach is flexible and results in simple estimation strategies for at least three leading dynamic nonlinear models probit tobit and poisson regression i treat the general problem of estimating average partial effects and show that simple estimators exist for important special cases copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

the dynamics of health in the british household panel survey this paper considers the dynamics of a categorical indicator of self assessed health using eight waves 1991 1998 of the british household panel survey bhps our analysis has three focal points the relative contributions of state dependence and heterogeneity in explaining the dynamics of health the existence and consequences of health related sample attrition and the investigation of the effects of measures of socioeconomic status with a particular focus on educational attainment and income to investigate these issues we use dynamic panel ordered probit models there is clear evidence of health related attrition in the data but this does not distort the estimates of state dependence and of the socioeconomic gradient in health the models show strong positive state dependence and heterogeneity accounts for around 30 of the unexplained variation in health copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

balance of payments constrained growth a rejoinder to professor thirlwall professor thirlwall has argued that the growth rate of a country is constrained by the requirement that the external current account must broadly balance he maintains that a country s growth can be analysed using a dynamic harrod trade multiplier and that a country s long run growth rate y will approximate to the ratio of the rate of growth of exports x to the income elasticity of demand for imports a in a recent article in this journal mcgregor and swales 1985 doubts were expressed about the theoretical and empirical grounds on which thirlwall makes these claims in his reply thirlwall argues that such doubts are unfounded he clarifies his theory on a number of points he argues that his theory was subjected to inappropriate empirical tests and whilst accepting that equation 1 can be derived from a strict neoclassical model he invites the reader to choose between the plausibility of the neoclassical story as against the keynesian alternative

state dependence in the incidence of strikes evidence from canadian contract data using heckman s dynamic probit model abstract this paper considers whether there is state dependence in strike incidence using longitudinal contract data from canada i obtain my estimates using heckman s estimator for dynamic probit models and find that there is no state dependence in strike incidence

collective bargaining interest arbitration and police salaries previous research and conventional wisdom suggest that the practice of collective bargaining the availability of interest arbitration and the use of arbitration when available all have a positive

estimation of fractional dependent variables in dynamic panel data models with an application to firm dividend policy fractional dependent variables and models with state dependence arise in many economic applications however estimating models with fractional dependent variables is complicated by the presence of two corner solution outcomes when coupled with a dynamic panel data setting estimating quantities of interest can be quite complex or computationally difficult this article demonstrates a method for estimating fractional response variables which is easy to implement and presents an application of the technique to the determination of firm dividend policy the estimation demonstrates that neglecting dynamics unobserved heterogeneity or the doubly censored nature of the dependent variable can generate misleading conclusions

a reduced form model for dynamic efficiency measurement application to dairy farms in germany and the netherlands the stochastic distance function model is extended to allow for the inefficiency component of the error term to be autocorrelated as implied by a dynamic model of firm behavior the autocorrelation parameter can then be interpreted as a measure of the persistence of inefficiency the model is viewed from a state space perspective and kalman filtering techniques are proposed for estimation the model is applied to two panels of dairy farms from germany and the netherlands the results suggest a very high degree of persistence of inefficiency through time

dynamics of female labour force participation in france abstractthis article formulates and estimates a structural intertemporal model of labour force participation relying on theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of lifetime behaviour we estimate a dynamic probit model with correlated random effects using longitudinal data to allow for a dynamic structure the model is applied to a panel of married women drawn from the 1997 2002 french labour force surveys in order to represent their participation behaviour it is estimated by maximum simulated likelihood our results show that women s decisions to go out to work are characterized by significant state dependence unobserved heterogeneity and negative serial correlation in the transitory error component in addition we find that the presence of young children in a woman s household reduces her labour participation but unequally according to their age and number as expected educational level has a positive impact on women s participation last a rise in the husband s wage is found

dynamic effects in inefficiency evidence from the colombian banking sector firms face a continuous process of technological and environmental changes that requires them to make managerial decisions in a dynamic context however costs and constraints prevent firms from making instant adjustments towards optimal conditions and may cause inefficiency to persist in time we propose a dynamic inefficiency specification that captures differences in the adjustment costs among firms and non persistent effects of inefficiency heterogeneity the model is fitted to a ten year sample of colombian banks the new specification improves model fit and have effects on efficiency estimations overall colombian banks present high inefficiency persistence but important differences between institutions are found in particular merged banks present low adjustment costs that allow them to recover rapidly efficiency losses derived from merging processes

competitive conditions and sectors productive efficiency a conditional non parametric frontier analysis abstract the scope of this paper is to build an appropriate nonparametric frontier framework by using time dependent conditional efficiency estimators to investigate how competition and time affect the process of technological change and technological catch up our empirical analysis utilizes a sample of 462 u s 6 digit manufacturing sectors over the period 1958 2009 contrary to the existing studies we apply the probabilistic approach of efficiency measurement to evaluate the dynamic effects alongside with the effects of competition on the sectors technological change and technological catch up levels moreover we estimate the sectors idiosyncratic efficiencies which are an approximation of solow s residual representing the unexplained part of the time dependent conditional measures the empirical results shed new light on the topic and signify that the dynamic effect of competitive conditions has a nonlinear effect on the sectors estimated performance specifically we unveil a u shaped curve between market concentration and technological change implying that the sectors higher concentration levels enhance their technological change levels e g innovation capacity having however a downsize effect on their technological catch up ability moreover the relationship between the sectors market concentration and technological catch up although non linear exhibits an n shaped curve with two turning points lastly the above findings remain robust when we limit our analysis to the capital intensive sectors

decomposition of productivity growth using distance functions the case of dairy farms in three european countries within an output distance function framework the total factor productivity growth index is decomposed into four components technical change technical and allocative efficiency and scale component we estimate stochastic translog output distance functions using panel data from dairy farms over the period 1991 94 for three european countries germany the netherlands and poland results indicate that the change in the productivity growth index in germany 6 and poland 5 are mainly dictated by the technical change component in contrast the productivity growth index in the netherlands 3 is influenced by allocative efficiency components

de industrialization and british regional policy chisholm m 1985 de industrialization and british regional policy reg studies 19 301 313 only if very restrictive assumptions are made can the use of export multiplier analysis lead to the conclusion that faster growth will be achieved by the limitation of imports a more realistic view is that both import and export volumes are influenced by the competitiveness of industries and that the ability to pay for imports is not solely dependent on the export of manufactures changes in competitiveness are examined at the sic industry level and the regional implications examined the discussion highlights supply side variables and leads to a consideration of regional policy as an instrument for faster national economic growth in addition to its traditional re distributive role

the market for elective surgery joint estimation of supply and demand this paper develops models of the demand for and supply of elective non emergency surgery using a panel of quarterly data for 200 english hospitals over the period 1995 2002 unusually distinct measures of supply outpatients seen and inpatient admissions and demand outpatient referrals and decisions to admit are available for each observation these offer the opportunity to estimate separate empirical models of supply and demand using ordinary least squares ols regression methods however the strong correlation between the residuals of these models suggests some merit in the deployment of seemingly unrelated regression sur methods although both static and dynamic sur estimations leave the results largely qualitatively unchanged sur estimation can have a considerable quantitative effect relative to the ols results for example sur estimation generates a lower elasticity of inpatient demand with respect to waiting time than that obtained via ols the results offer an important justification for more careful econometric modelling of hospital behaviour than has traditionally been employed in the health economics literature

ghg registries participation and performance under the canadian voluntary climate challenge program between 1994 and 2004 the voluntary challenge and registry vcr played an important role in canadian climate change policy in this paper we examine the decision of firms to participate in the vcr the extent of their involvement and then ask if greenhouse gas emissions are related to past vcr participation as an information provision program we find evidence that firms may participate in vcr to signal their environmental responsibility to regulators and to some extent investors but not to consumers we also find that past involvement in the vcr is a strong and significant determinant of current involvement in the registry greenhouse gas emissions reported to the mandatory greenhouse gas reporting program in 2004 however do not appear to be different between vcr reporters and non reporters ghg emissions are observed to be significantly lower among firms that are smaller emit fewer toxic releases use more renewable energy sources are intermediate good producers and are located in quebec ontario and manitoba

firm heterogeneity persistent and transient technical inefficiency a generalized true random effects model this paper considers a panel data stochastic frontier model that disentangles unobserved firm effects firm heterogeneity from persistent time invariant long term and transient time varying short term technical inefficiency the model gives us a four way error component model viz persistent and time varying inefficiency random firm effects and noise we use bayesian methods of inference to provide robust and efficient methods of estimating inefficiency components in this four way error component model monte carlo results are provided to validate its performance we also present results from an empirical application that uses a large panel of us commercial banks

testing for choice dynamics in panel data this article applies different approaches to distinguish state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity and serial correlation and hence test for state dependence in consumer brand choices first we apply a simple method proposed by chamberlain which involves lagged exogenous variables only second we also estimate a lagged dependent variable specification proposed by wooldridge third we use the estimation approach suggested by wooldridge to estimate a model with both lagged dependent and exogenous variables to distinguish between the two different sources of choice dynamics state dependence and lagged effects of the exogenous variables our analysis reveals that the best approach is to use models with both lagged dependent and exogenous variables our findings include strong evidence for state dependence in five out of the six product categories studied in this article

medium term cycles and housing is regional integration different drehmann et al drehmann m borio c and tsatsaronis k 2012 characterising the financial cycle don t lose sight of the medium term bis working papers no 380 bank for international settlement

persistence of innovation in dutch manufacturing is it spurious this paper studies the persistence of innovation and the dynamics of innovation output in dutch manufacturing using firm data from three waves of the community innovation surveys cis pertaining to the periods 1994 1996 1996 1998 and 1998 2000 we estimate by maximum likelihood a dynamic panel data type 2 tobit model accounting for individual effects and handling the initial conditions problem we find that there is no evidence of true persistence in achieving technological product or process innovations while past shares of innovative sales condition albeit to a small extent current shares of innovative sales

union wage differentials in the public and private sectors a simultaneous equations specification the paper attempts to integrate new approaches to estimating union wage effects with the analysis of public private sector wage differentials estimates of the union differential in both public and private sectors allowing for the endogeneity of union status are presented the hypothesis that the recently measured rents to public sector employment primarily reflect the recent increase in unionization in that sector is examined and receives considerable empirical support there was evidence of positive selection into the union sector especially for private sector workers union status appears to be strongly influenced by the expected wage gain from joining the union sector

no money no honey financial versus knowledge and demand constraints on innovation the paper adds to the literature on the barriers to innovation in two ways first we assess comparatively what mostly constrains firms ability to translate investment in innovation activity into new products and processes whether it is mainly finance as most of the literature would suggest or whether it is mostly knowledge and market related aspects second we suggest a method to correct for the sample selection bias that often affects empirical contributions to this scholarship by filtering out firms that are not interested in innovation from those that struggle to engage in it we obtain a relevant sample of potential innovators which allows us to analyse the comparative effect of financial and non financial barriers on innovation success we find that demand side factors particularly concentrated market structure and lack of demand are as important as financial constraints in determining firms innovation failures this evidence redirects attention from financial to non financial barriers by considering traditional demand market structure and regulation factors involved in reduced firm innovation performance the empirical analysis is based on an unbalanced panel of firm level data from four waves of the uk community innovation survey cis between 2002 and 2010 merged with data from the uk business structure database

whose wages do unions raise a dynamic model of unionism and wage rate determination for young men we estimate the union premium for young men over a period of declining unionization 1980 87 through a procedure which identifies the alternative sources of the endogeneity of union status while we estimate the average increase in wages resulting from union employment to be in excess of 20 we find that the return to unobserved heterogeneity operating through union status is substantial and that the union premium is highly variable we also find that the premium is sensitive to the form of sorting allowed in estimation moreover the data are consistent with comparative advantage sorting our results suggest that the unobserved heterogeneity which positively contributes to the likelihood of union membership is associated with higher wages we are unable however to determine whether this is due to the ability of these workers to extract monopoly rents or whether it reflects the more demanding hiring standards of employers faced by union wages 1998 john wiley sons ltd

an examination of regional interaction and super regions in britain an error correction model approach gray d 2005 an examination of regional interaction and super regions in britain an error correction model approach regional studies 39 619 632 this paper examines spill over effects among regions estimating error correction models of british rates of unemployment and conducting granger causality tests it is found that on a short run basis the west midlands is a leading territory within a closely knit group of surrounding regions the paper draws a distinction between a core and a leading region suggesting the core region the south east is a follower responding to and magnifying economic fluctuations the policy implications are that current regional delineations may not be consistent with the demands of economic coherence at the national level and so is not optimal for the delivery of decentralized spatial economic policy indeed as economic engineering in the high unemployment periphery has consequences for more prosperous areas it may be better not to allow local administrators too m

economies of scale technical change and persistent and time varying cost efficiency in indian banking do ownership regulation and heterogeneity matter abstract banks with different ownership types adjust differently to changes in regulatory environments although this topic has been widely studied all the previous studies fail to control for bank heterogeneity bank specific effects in estimating cost structure and efficiency we propose a model where we control for bank heterogeneity and introduce persistent and time varying inefficiency additionally we incorporate determinants of both persistent and time varying inefficiency as well as production risks furthermore our model allows estimation of different technologies for different ownership types jointly we use this model to analyze the effect of regulation in indian banking we find that private banks have not exhausted their economies of scale foreign banks are operating under diseconomies of scale especially after the reforms and scale economies of state owned banks are unaffected by regulation banks of all ownership types have enjoyed technical progress however foreign banks have benefited the most followed by state owned banks only state banks were able to improve their cost efficiency while private banks and especially foreign banks were lagging behind their cost frontiers

third party intervention and the preservation of bargaining relationships this article uses longitudinal bargaining contract data to examine whether third party dispute resolution procedures improve the health of bargaining relationships and contribute to their preservat

does government funding complement or substitute private research funding to universities abstract there is growing political pressure on universities to intensify their interaction with industry and to enlarge their own research funding options in a context characterised by increasing constraints on public spending however whether the successful achievement of such a political desired outcome is consistent with a restriction of government funding is not clear and requires further investigation as a matter of fact there is scant empirical evidence on whether and to what extent government funding affects the external funding options available to universities in particular those related to research and consulting activities by using a set of probit and tobit panel data models estimated on financial data for the whole population of italian university departments engaged in research in the engineering and physical sciences this paper provides evidence that government funding to universities complements funding from research contracts and consulting contributing to increasing universities collaboration with industry and activating knowledge transfer processes

learning from interest arbitration the next round in final offer arbitration the decision of the arbitrator provides the parties with information about the preferences of the arbitrator that is not available prior to the award using data from wisconsin teacher negotiations from 1977 to 1986 the authors find that the information contained in an award altered the parties expectations about the arbitrator s preferences and influenced the subsequent negotiated settlement the negotiated settlement following an award was higher when the union s final offer was selected than when the employer s offer was selected in the round following an award the variance in negotiated settlements declined and the wage structure toward which the settlements converged was one that conformed with the arbitrator s views of fairness

poverty and social exclusion two sides of the same coin or dynamically interrelated processes there is growing interest in the analysis and measurement of social exclusion to complement the static and dynamic literature on income poverty on theoretical grounds social exclusion and income poverty are seen as different processes but with closely interrelated dynamics however our empirical understanding of the way these two processes dynamically interact at the individual level is still very limited to shed some light on the issue we use a dynamic bivariate probit model controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and wooldridge 2005 type initial conditions both the first and second order markov dynamics are examined we estimate the model using the italian sample of the european community household panel echp waves 1 8 and find a sizable extent of state dependence in both poverty and social exclusion moreover there are dynamic cross effects implying that poverty and social exclusion are mutually reinforcing social policies aimed at eradicating poverty and avoiding individuals social

poverty transition and persistence in ethiopia 1994 2004 summary this study analyzes the persistence of poverty in both rural and urban areas in ethiopia during 1994 2004 the key finding is that households move frequently in and out of poverty but the difficulty of exiting from poverty like the chance of avoiding slipping back increases with the time spent in that state and varies considerably between male and female headed households our results imply that it is important to design anti poverty policies both to hinder households from slipping into extreme poverty and to minimize the length of the poverty spell for households once they have fallen into it

a regional equilibrium growth model and its disequilibrium dynamics a one sector approach girardi r and paelinck j h p 1994 a regional equilibrium growth model and its disequilibrium dynamics a one sector approach reg studies 28 305 317 this paper deals with the problem of regional disequilibria its central concern is the derivation of an equilibrium and a disequilibrium growth model based on the concept of location elasticities the equilibrium model is based on the general idea that the production of a region for a given sector would be in equilibrium if every regional firm has located efficiently according to the regional location factor profile the disequilibrium model is developed assuming an adaptation process towards equilibrium the model explains growth as the sum of an equilibrium and a disequilibrium component the condition for a regional equilibrium growth pattern shows that adaptation is more difficult for regions with a small share of production because they have to follow a pattern of growth defined by regions with higher shares the disequilibrium model also hi

regional balance of payments problems an interpretation ho l s 1993 regional balance of payments problems an interpretation reg studies 27 457 466 this paper lays out a simple model and an accounting framework for analysing the relationship between different components of regional savings and investment between internal savings and external savings and between government sector savings and private sector savings in general stepping up investment to enhance regional growth must cause a deterioration of the regional trade balance in the short run even though the trade balance is likely to improve in the longer run analyses in recent years often ignore the effect of capital formation on trade as an example the german unification in requiring a rebuilding of capital stock suddenly rendered obsolete by a major change in relative factor prices requires a real appreciation of the dm and a deterioration of the german trade balance given nominal exchange rates this means higher german inflation than its trading partners on the other hand the pape

a synoptic view of regional growth and unemployment ii the post keynesian theory this paper discusses the post keynesian explanation of the causes of disparities in regional growth and unemployment rates it begins by examining the relationship between the real wage rate the level of demand and regional unemployment next it shows how regional growth is primarily determined by the rate of growth of exports a two region model is outlined which demonstrates how regional growth rates are interrelated through interregional trade flows and the regional balance of payments constraint the paper concludes with a discussion of the cumulative causation theory of regional growth

split panel jackknife estimation of fixed effect models we propose a jackknife for reducing the order of the bias of maximum likelihood estimates of nonlinear dynamic fixed effect panel models in its simplest form the half panel jackknife the estimator is just 2 hat theta bar theta 1 2 where hat theta is the mle from the full panel and bar theta 1 2 is the average of the two half panel mles each using t 2 time periods and all n cross sectional units this estimator eliminates the first order bias of hat theta the order of the bias is further reduced if two partitions of the panel are used for example two half panels and three 1 3 panels and the corresponding mles on further partitioning the panel any order of bias reduction can be achieved the split panel jackknife estimators are asymptotically normal centered at the true value with variance equal to that of the mle under asymptotics where t is allowed to grow slowly with n in analogous fashion the split panel jackknife reduces the bias of the profile likelihood and the bias of marginal effect estimates simulations in fixed effect dynamic discrete choice models with small t show that the split panel jackknife effectively reduces the bias and mean squared error of the mle and yields confidence intervals with much better coverage

borrowing from pui to pay pom multiple borrowing and over indebtedness in rural thailand summary rural financial markets have grown rapidly in asian emerging market economies thus contributing to economic development and the reduction of poverty at the same time however the level of indebtedness of rural households has increased making households more vulnerable to shocks one of the reasons for rising household debt is the ease of borrowing simultaneously from a growing number of lending institutions this paper addresses two major questions first does borrowing from multiple sources increase rural households risk of over indebtedness second do over indebted rural households refinance their outstanding loans through multiple borrowing running the risk of becoming trapped in a debt cycle employing a dynamic random effects bivariate probit model for a unique set of longitudinal household panel data from northeast thailand this study examines the bidirectional relationship between over indebtedness and multiple borrowing to determine to what extent rural households become trapped in debt cycles on the one hand the results indicate that households in northeast thailand take on multiple loans which further increases their risk of becoming over indebted on the other hand our model results do not confirm the widespread notion that over indebted rural households use multiple loans to refinance unpayable debts

environmental regulation and foreign direct investment evidence from south korea abstract this paper studies how environmental regulation shapes the pattern of foreign direct investment fdi and thereby assesses the pollution haven hypothesis conflicting results exist in the case studies examining the most advanced countries partly due to the deterrent effect of clean technology adoptions on industry migration to minimize the clean technology effect we examine the pattern of south korean fdi over 2000 2007 the period that korean firms relied on old production technologies despite facing rapidly strengthened environmental standards a difference in differences type identification strategy circumvents other potential confounders we find strong evidence that polluting industries tend to invest more in countries with laxer environmental regulations in terms of both the amount of investment intensive margin and the number of new foreign affiliates extensive margin a similar finding is obtained when imports are analyzed

a framework for estimating dynamic unobserved effects panel data models with possible feedback to future explanatory variables abstract i show how to construct the likelihood function for the conditional maximum likelihood estimator in dynamic unobserved effects models where not all conditioning variables are strictly exogenous the method for handling the initial conditions problem appears to be novel and offers a flexible relatively simple alternative to existing methods

a second great depression in the uk regions can anything be done moore b and rhodes j 1982 a second great depression in the uk regions can anything be done reg studies 16 323 33 this is a revised version of a paper given to the regional studies conference in glasgow in may 1981 the authors were asked to put forward the views of the cambridge economic policy group cepg on the economy as a whole and to draw out any implications for the uk regions a diagnosis of the uk economic problem and its regional manifestation is followed by a discussion of the macro economic strategy favoured by the group which aims to ensure that the economy can be expanded at a permanently faster rate without running into balance of payments problems only a strategy of this kind could make a significant impact on the very high rates of unemployment in the depressed regions

the wages of older men in this paper net depreciation rates in human capital are estimated from wage data on a longitudinal sample of men aged 45 to 64 the results indicate that wage rates begin to decline in the early fifties at rates under 1 percent annually and decline at about 2 percent annually after age 60 this decrease was offset by the general increase in wage levels so that on average the real wages of men approaching retirement did not decline during the period studied the general increase was larger for blacks than for whites probably because of decreases in labor market discrimination between 1966 and 1974 an appendix presents a gls estimator for a variance components model in which the number of observations per individual varies

productivity growth measurement and decomposition under a dynamic inefficiency specification the case of german dairy farms abstract standard parametric models for efficiency and total factor productivity growth measurement either impose strict structures on the time evolution of efficiency scores or no structure at all when the data capture a sector in turbulent periods both specifications may be inappropriate the dynamic stochastic frontier model takes a middle way in terms of the time structure it imposes on efficiency scores we apply the dynamic stochastic frontier model to the case of german dairy farms in a period that is characterized by high milk price volatility the model is able to capture time specific efficiency and total factor productivity growth shocks that may have been induced by this high volatility furthermore the dynamic stochastic frontier model is favored by the data when compared to a model that imposes a very restrictive time structure on efficiency and two models that do not impose any time structure at all

is cumulative growth in manufacturing productivity slowing down in the eu12 regions the cumulative causation in the relation between labour productivity and output growth known as verdoorn s law is empirically tested using data from 109 eu12 regions during the period 1977 2005 several specifications of verdoorn s law are put forward in this paper which attribute the process of cumulative causation to a series of factors including manufacturing agglomeration spatial interaction and responses to the problems of growth the findings suggest that although cumulative causation holds over this period the slowdown of its pace is nonetheless apparent post 1992 revisions in responses e g policy along with further research are thus recommended the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved

crossing the innovation threshold through mergers and acquisitions firms are resorting more and more to mergers and acquisitions m a to bridge the gap between where they are and where they would like to be in relation to innovation and performance this paper investigates whether involvement in m a triggers distinct patterns of innovative behaviour across firms and whether this effect is conditional on firm size the analysis combines data from four waves of the community innovation survey cis and the business register of dutch manufacturing firms we observe that m as influence the probability that firms will begin innovation activities or persist with them and these effects vary at different points in the firm size distribution in particular by using m a firms are able to persist with the innovation efforts and output over time and this effect is especially strong for large firms for small firms m a help them to cross the innovation threshold increasing the probability of the transition from a non innovator to an active innovator however the m a effect does not mitigate the tendency of small firms to be occasional innovators

thirlwall and balance of payments constrained growth this paper outlines the theory which thirlwall uses to determine the growth of domestic income and argues that crucial elements of this theory appear to be very weak the empirical evidence presented by thirlwall to support his argument for balance of payments constrained growth is considered