factors influencing differences between survey and market based environmental value measures a unique us database combining survey and housing data is used to obtain household level stated and market based willingness to pay wtp measures to avoid living near landfills systematic differe

the incremental information content of investor fear gauge for volatility forecasting in the crude oil futures market abstract this paper aims to investigate whether investor fear gauge ifg contains incremental information content for forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures for this purpose we use oil volatility index ovx to measure the ifg adding the ifg to existing heterogeneous autoregressive har models we develop many har models with ifg subsequently we employ these har models to predict the volatility of crude oil futures the results from the parameter estimation and out of sample forecasting show that the in sample and out of sample performances of har models with ifg are significantly better than their corresponding har models without ifg the results are robust in different ways thus the har models with ifg are more beneficial to the decision making of all participants including financial traders manufacturers and policymakers in the crude oil futures market more importantly the results suggest that the investor fear gauge has a significant positive effect on volatility forecasting and can help improve the performances of almost all the existing har models

the relationship between international trade and capital flow a network perspective abstract the relationship between international trade and capital flow has been extensively discussed using bilateral data from 2001 to 2016 we construct international trade and capital flow networks defined as a weighted graph in which nodes are countries and edges represent trade and capital flow linkages centrality is employed as the main variable in this study to represent the importance of a country in the networks to gain further insight into the network characteristics we adopt a turning parameter centrality to combine both the original degree and strength measurements within the weighted network moreover we develop a new indicator called partner quality centrality to identify the quality of neighbors within the panel cointegration framework we argue that a positive long run equilibrium exists between the trade and capital flow networks as constructed in addition we employ a panel causality test to investigate the short run dynamics indicating that the international capital flow network has predictive power on the trade network from the short run perspective but not vice versa

inventory control with product returns the impact of imperfect information product returns are characterized by considerable uncertainty on time and quantity in the literature on inventory management for product return environments best forecasts of future returns are associated with methods that use the most information regarding product return history in practice however data is often scarce and unreliable while forecasts based on historical data reliable or not are never perfect in this paper we therefore investigate the impact of imperfect information with respect to the return process on inventory management performance we show that in the case of imperfect information the most informed method does not necessarily lead to best performance the results have relevant implications regarding investments in product return information systems

the nested piglog model an application to u s food demand a new demand system is introduced the nested piglog model nesting thirteen other demand systems including five that are also new this new model and its nested special cases are applied to models of u s food demand that include food at home fah food away from home fafh and alcoholic beverages although nested tests and out of sample forecasting performance favor generalizing models to a certain degree statistically insignificant improvements to in sample fit and even poorer out of sample forecast accuracy undermine further generalizations based on a subset of preferred models fafh is found to be price and income elastic compared to fah which is price and income

the environmental consequences of globalization a country specific time series analysis abstract the dynamic relationships among trade income and the environment for developed and developing countries are examined using a cointegration analysis results suggest that trade and income growth tend to increase environmental quality in developed countries whereas they have detrimental effects on environmental quality in most developing countries it is also found that for developed countries the causal relationship appears to run from trade and income to the environment a change in trade and income growth causes a consequent change in environmental quality for most developing countries on the other hand the causality is found to run from the environment to trade and income however the opposite causal relationship holds for china

household composition income and food away from home expenditure in urban china abstract china has experienced dramatic economic growth and socio demographic changes in the last three decades including rapid urbanization and an aging society in the coming decades this paper analyses food away from home fafh consumption in urban china with respect to household composition income and other socio economic variables the data are from household surveys in six chinese cities i e beijing nanjing chengdu xi an shenyang and xiamen collected by the authors findings indicate that both household composition and income have significant effects on fafh participation and expenditures projections based upon our results suggest that fafh expenditures in urban china will continue to increase through 2050 the leading contributor to increased fafh expenditure is china s strong income growth followed by the expected rapid urbanization the aging society however will have a negative influence on fafh consumption

demand for prepared meals by u s households using the 1987 88 nfcs a heckman two stage procedure was used to estimate the demand for prepared meals by u s households prepared meals were defined as those ready to eat and those ready to cook households headed by younger more educated and time constrained managers were more likely to purchase prepared meals income elasticities ranged from 0 07 to 0 13 while own price elasticities ranged from 0 23 to 0 66 evidence exists to indicate that prepared meals and food away from home are substitutes the presence of teenagers in a household is positively associated with expenditures of prepared meals

is trade good or bad for the environment sorting out the causality we seek to contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking what is the effect of trade on a country s environment for a given level of gdp we take specific account of the endogeneity of trade using exogenous geographic determinants of trade as instrumental variables we find that trade tends to reduce three measures of air pollution statistical significance is high for concentrations of so2 moderate for no2 and lacking for particulate matter although results for other environmental measures are not as encouraging there is little evidence that trade has a detrimental effect on the environment

a bootstrapped double hurdle analysis consumption of home produced food this article deals with home made food the consumption of such specific goods involves an important null consumption issue a two step procedure is used to estimate whether the decision to consume is distinct from the decision on the amount of consumption data from the 1991 french food consumption survey show the relevance of double hurdle models finally the estimation of cragg s model is improved with a new undersampling procedure numerous and sometimes opposite effects of household characteristics on the probability of consuming home produced food and on the amount consumed are obtained

quantifying china s oil import risks and the impact on the national economy abstract with an increase in china s oil imports china s oil supply will also continue to be effected by the socio economic stability of oil exporting countries and the safety of oil transport routes this paper introduces a systematic and quantitative method to evaluate the influence of china s oil import risks oir on the national economy and industrial sectors from a perspective of apply chain process for this analysis china s oir is quantified by integrating oil exporting country risk and the risks from oil transportation routes country risk is defined as the oil exporting country s political risk caused by political changes or internal conflicts transport risk is defined as the risk of shipping routes affected by pirate attacks and geopolitics second the relationship between china s oir and oil import costs is analyzed using a multiple linear approach third an input output analysis method is used to research the effect of the cost of china s oil imports on the cost of investment within china s domestic sectors this research finds that the corresponding impact on gdp is 3494 5 million dollars given an increasing by 10 of china s oir and the impact on domestic sectors differs from sector to sector finally this paper puts forth recommendations to improve long term oil supply security in china

the bullwhip effect in supply chains an overestimated problem abstract a phenomenon that is now well known as the bullwhip effect suggests that the variability of orders increases as they move up the supply chain from retailers to wholesalers to manufacturers to suppliers in this paper we will focus mainly on measuring the bullwhip effect existing approaches that aim at quantifying the bullwhip effect neglect the network structure of supply chains by only assuming a simple two stage supply chain consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer some of the relevant risk pooling effects associated with the network structure of supply chains are disregarded risk pooling effects arise when the orders which a retailer receives from its customers are statistically correlated with a coefficient of correlation less than one when analyzing the bullwhip effect in supply chains however the influence of risk pooling has to be considered the fact that these influences have not yet been analyzed motivates the research presented in this paper we will show that the bullwhip effect is overestimated if just a simple supply chain is assumed and risk pooling effects are present

analysis of compound bullwhip effect causes abstract this research investigates compound causes of the bullwhip effect bwe by considering an inventory system with multiple price sensitive demand streams joint price and demand dynamics are captured by a vector time series process that incorporates the stochastic co movements in price and demand we study two bwe measures one for each demand stream individually and one for the aggregated demand we show that demand parameters including demand autocorrelation cross correlation and price sensitivity serve as root causes of the bwe we prove that the impact of these parameters on the bwe can be additively decomposed conditions are established under which a pair of simultaneous compound causes may attenuate or dampen the bwe when demand streams are aggregated we derive a pooling factor that quantifies the impact of demand aggregation on order stability when positive the pooling factor corresponds to a synergy effect that captures the gain in the stability of the pooled orders conditions for the existence of the synergy effect are obtained for several special cases involving a zero leadtime we also discuss how our analytical findings can be managerially applied to bullwhip mitigation strategies

estimating fishing and hunting leisure spending shares in the united states abstract we apply a bivariate censored demand system to estimate hunting and fishing trip related spending shares in the united states using data from off site surveys the approach considers fishing and hunting destination decisions and includes respondents who were inactive i e did not hunt or fished in a particular season the statistical significance of correlation coefficient parameter supports the use of a joint e g bivariate rather than separate e g univariate decision modeling process for fishing or hunting share equations most individual characteristics are statistically significant as explanatory variables respondents holding recreation licenses tended to spend significantly more on recreation than those without licenses all own price and cross price elasticities are statistically significant and suggest that hunting and fishing are complements the results also suggest that the popularity of hunting may decline as the population ages

a double hurdle approach to modelling tobacco consumption in italy this article analyzes the determinants of tobacco expenditures for a sample of italian households a box cox double hurdle model adjusted for heteroscedasticity is estimated to account for separate individual decisions concerning smoking participation and tobacco consumption and to correct for nonnormality in the bivariate distribution of the error terms nested univariate and bivariate models are found to be excessively restrictive supporting the adequacy of a generalized specification estimation results show that consumption decisions are significantly affected by income and demographic characteristics in particular income positively impacts tobacco expenditure while participation probability substantially declines as age increases the existence of significant gender differences in both smoking participation and tobacco consumption patterns is found while high education and white collar occupation reduces the likelihood to smoke and tobacco expenditure levels single adult households have a lower

household composition and food expenditures a cross country comparison abstract in the analysis of food expenditures use of household member counts as an explanatory variable assumes each member has the same marginal food expenditure impact in our analysis of latin american food expenditures we reject this assumption via the estimation of endogenously determined adult equivalence scales that vary by household member gender and age a series of hypothesis tests indicate significant differences not only in the male versus female equivalence scales but also across country with the use of such equivalence scales in the definition of per capita expenditures we find significant differences in the distributions implying substantially different poverty rankings

rebound effects of new irrigation technologies the role of water rights we study how institutions such as water rights can complement new irrigation technologies in promoting the sustainability of u s agriculture using data from the ogallala high plains aquifer region of kansas we find that water extraction moderately increases after adopting low energy precise application lepa irrigation and this rebound effect is in general higher for farmers with larger water rights about half of the lepa s rebound effects arise because adopters tend to irrigate more land and grow more water intensive crops with the remaining half attributable to more intensive irrigation farmers with greater water rights use more water with two thirds of the effects arising from irrigating larger land areas and one third of the effects attributable to more intensive irrigation a 10 reduction of water rights will reduce water use by 5 in the long run and if the reduction targets the majority of the water rights which lie between 100 and 500 af lepa s rebound effect decreases by 15 4 finally we find that farmers have an incentive to apply a small amount of water in order to preserve their water rights but the associated water waste is insignificant

impact of off farm labor supply on food expenditures of the farm household abstract farm households diversify their income sources by working off the farm this is a risk management strategy that is used by farm households in both developed and developing countries income diversification via off farm work is associated with higher incomes and food consumption however little is known about the association between off farm work and farm household food expenditures in an effort to bridge this gap this study attempts to assess the impact of off farm work decisions by the operator and or the spouse on the food expenditures of the farm household using a nationwide farm household survey in the united states and new econometric method we find that the decisions of the operator and or the spouse to work off the farm are significantly interrelated 29 however these two decisions affect food expenditures in different ways the operator s off farm work decision is positively related to food expenditures while the spouse s decision is negatively associated with expenditures on food by the farm household

estimating the cost of leisure time for recreation demand models abstract in this paper we propose a method of determining the opportunity cost of leisure time with an empirical recreation demand application typically the opportunity cost of leisure time is assumed to be some fraction of the wage rate this practice has limitations first it assumes that individuals can trade time for money at their wage second it offers no guidance about how to value the time of an individual who is not in the labor force this paper proposes a method of determining this cost that does not suffer from these drawbacks an empirical example is provided which demonstrates the proposed approach and contrasts it with commonly applied approaches

trading in networks theory and experiments intermediation is a prominent feature of economic production and exchange two features of intermediation are salient coordination among traders between the source and the destination and competition between alternative combinations of intermediaries we develop a simple model to study these forces and we test the theoretical predictions in experiments our theoretical analysis yields a complete characterization of pricing equilibrium in networks there exist both ecient and inecient equilibria suggesting a key role of coordination among intermediaries strategic interaction leads to either buyer and seller retaining all surplus or intermediaries extracting all surplus we develop conditions on network structure under which these di erent extremal outcomes arise respectively laboratory experiments show that eciency prevails in almost all cases so traders are successful in coordination subjects coordinate on extreme surplus division finally experiments highlight the role of network structure in determining pricing and the

an investigation of the increasing prevalence of nonpurchase of meat by british households the purpose of the analysis has been to investigate the determinants of the household s decisions regarding the purchase of meat in great britain the approach using a box cox generalization of the double hurdle model has depicted the household making two choices namely whether or not to purchase the product the participation decision and then for those households which do purchase how much to buy the expenditure decision the determinants considered are socioeconomic variables such as the total expenditure of the household market prices characteristics of the householder age gender education type of employment and characteristics of the household location presence of children etc by conducting the analysis over several years of survey data 1975 1993 it is possible to investigate whether the influence of these variables has changed over time the bulk of the empirical analysis has concerned single adult households with or without children

trade openness and environmental quality international evidence we examine the relationship between trade openness and the environment in a cross country panel using the emission of particulate matter pm10 as the basic indicator of environmental quality the panel cointegration test results show a long run relationship between particulate matter emissions trade openness and economic growth we find that increased trade openness leads to environmental degradation for the global sample however the results differ according to the income of countries trade openness has a benign effect on the environment in high income countries but a harmful effect in middle and low income countries these results are generally robust to different measures of trade openness and environmental quality interestingly and significantly the results are consistent with the popular notion that rich countries dump their pollution on poor countries finally we find evidence of a feedback effect between trade openness and particulate matter emissions for the global sample as well as different income groups of countries

household consumption of cheese an inverse hyperbolic sine double hurdle model with dependent errors the dependent double hurdle model is generalized by an inverse hyperbolic sine transformation of the dependent variable the resulting specification features a flexible parameterization accommodates heteroskedastic errors and nests a range of common limited dependent variable models results for u s household cheese consumption suggest that the homoskedastic and normal double hurdle model is misspecified income elasticities are small and vary across household groups foodstamp recipients are more responsive to income changes than nonrecipients foodstamp recipients are also less likely to consume cheese but conditional on consumption spend more than nonrecipients

creating win win trade promotions theory and empirical analysis of scan back trade deals manufacturer trade promotion spending is second only to cost of goods sold as a profit and loss item yet manufacturers often lose money on these deals as a result of forward buying by retailers the search for more effective forms of trade promotion and the availability of scanners at cash registers has led to the emergence of a new type of trade deal the scan back that gives retailers a discount on unitssoldduring the promotion rather than on unitsbought we develop a theory to compare retailer pricing decisions and profitability under scan back and traditional off invoice trade deals we show that when the terms of the trade deal are identical retailers prefer off invoice trade deals and manufacturers prefer scan backs manufacturers can however redesign the scan back to leave the retailer weakly better off and leave themselves strictly better off using proprietary data from the beverage category we conduct an empirical analysis and find that during the promotion period scan back trade deals relative to off invoice deals 1 do not cause excess ordering and 2 generate higher retail sales through lower retail prices implications for researchers and managers are discussed

household demand for convenience and nonconvenience foods states the budget shares are generally more responsive to prices than to real total expenditure additionally the quantities demanded of convenience and nonconvenience foods are generally more sensitive to changes in income and own prices than to changes in cross prices with regard to demographic variates primary users of convenience foods are white households with employed household managers less than 35 years of age

quick service expenditure in ireland parametric vs semiparametric analysis the aim of this study is to identify the economic and socio economic factors influencing irish households expenditure on quick service meals a particularly dynamic component of the foodservice industry and to determine the extent to which these factors have changed over the course of the 1990s maximum likelihood estimation and semiparametric alternatives are considered with the conclusion that in this instance semiparametric techniques do not offer a viable alternative to maximum likelihood estimation of tobit models even in the presence of heteroscedasticity and non normality the results revel that household income place of residence commuters and household size have significant and positive influences on quick service expenditure older families single households and married couples together with homeowners display reduced expenditure the opportunity cost of time is positively related to quick service expenditure consistent with theory while health knowledge has a negative impact on quick

the impact of energy trade patterns on co2 emissions an emergy and network analysis abstract fossil fuel is considered to be the major cause of co2 emissions and it flows across countries through the international energy trade in this paper we analyse the impact of energy trade patterns on co2 emissions for a global sample from 2000 to 2014 we construct an international fossil fuel trade network based on emergy theory and calculate some corresponding structural parameters then we systematically evaluate the impact of energy trade on co2 emissions from the trade volume and trade relationships perspectives we obtain the following results 1 trade strength mainly affects co2 emissions through the scale effect composition effect and technique effect 2 trade security and trade centre status of one country will significantly affect co2 emissions 3 for high economic level he countries concentrating the trade volume on several finite countries will destroy the environment low economic level le countries that are proximal to the important countries of the energy market will experience an increase in pollution this research also discusses some implications for policy makers

working wives and food away from home the box cox double hurdle model household expenditures on food away from home are analyzed with the use of the bls 1989 consumer expenditure survey parameterization and distributional assumptions of cragg s double hurdle model are generalized for this purpose and the resulting model outperforms the more traditional ones results suggest households with working wives and those with higher income are more likely to consume food away from home and also to consume more than others wife s age and household size increase the conditional level of consumption education has conflicting effects on probability and conditional level of consumption

breakfast lunch and dinner expenditures away from home in the united states abstract this study investigates the differentiated effects of economic and socio demographic variables on food away from home fafh expenditures by type of meal among different types of households in the united states using data from the 2008 and 2009 consumer expenditure surveys the systems of expenditures on breakfast lunch and dinner are estimated with a multivariate sample selection procedure statistical significance of error correlations among equations justifies estimation of the sample selection systems income work hours race education geographic region and household composition are important determinants of fafh expenditures income contributes to fafh expenditures of all meal types implying that the future of fafh industry is tied to macroeconomic conditions more education is associated with increased expenditures for fafh lunch and dinner effects of the supplemental nutrition assistance program snap are negligible

adjustment strategies for a fixed delivery contract we consider a long term contractual agreement between buyer and seller in whichq units are delivered to the buyer at regular time intervals it must be true that the delivery quantity q is less than the mean demand per period in order to manage the inventory the buyer has the option of adjusting the delivery quantity upwards just prior to a delivery but must pay a premium to do so demand is assumed random and we model the system in a continuous review setting we show that the equations one must solve to find optimal adjustment strategies are intractable a diffusion approximation is developed which when coupled with the solution to an even simpler deterministic version of the problem yields very simple but effective approximations extensive computations are included to compare the performance of the optimal and approximate policies we also empirically derive a formula for computingq whose accuracy is established computationally we prove that the fixed delivery contract results in lower variance of orders to the seller we also include a computational study to find the unit cost discount that equalizes the expected costs for the fixed delivery contract and the base stock contract for a large parameter set

the world trade network and the environment this papers analyses the role of the world trade network on the environment we rely on methods developed for social network analysis to identify the most important countries in connecting trade between all the other countries in the world trade network we then estimate how the network or indirect effects from trade affect the environmental quality of a country as the trade networks are endogenously determined by trade and environmental conditions we use as instrumental variables the growth in the population of trade partners and the growth in the population of trade partners partners to exploit exogenous variation in the world trade network once we simultaneously estimate the environmental trade income and network equations using a three stage least square procedure we find that network effects harm the environmental quality of developed countries but improve the environment of developing countries

trade openness carbon emissions nexus the importance of turning points of trade openness for country panels abstract this paper explores the relationship between trade openness and co 2 emissions by incorporating economic growth as an additional and potential determinant of this relationship for three groups of 105 high middle and low income countries we apply the pedroni 1999 and westerlund 2007 panel cointegration tests and find that the three variables are cointegrated in the long run trade openness impedes environmental quality for the global high income middle and low income panels but the impact varies in these diverse groups of countries the panel vecm causality results highlight a feedback effect between trade openness and carbon emissions at the global level and the middle income countries but trade openness granger causes co 2 emissions for the high income and low income countries policy implications are also provided

stochastic financial analytics for cash flow forecasting abstract accurate cash flow forecasting is essential for successful management of firms and it becomes especially critical during uncertain market and credit conditions without accurate cash flow forecasting a firm may fail to meet its short term obligations and risk bankruptcy accurate cash flow forecasting can be limited by a number of factors including changes in macro economic conditions that influence liquidity in the economy customer payment behavior that can vary from time to time as well by industry and dynamics of the particular supply chain itself we develop stochastic financial analytics for cash flow forecasting for firms by integrating two models 1 markov chain model of the aggregate payment behavior across all customers of the firm using accounts receivable aging and 2 bayesian model of individual customer payment behavior at the individual invoice level as the stochastic dynamics of cash flow evolves every day the forecast can be updated every time an invoice is paid the proposed model is back tested using empirical data from a small manufacturing firm and found to differ 3 6 from actual monthly cash flow and differs approximately 2 4 compared to actual annual cash flow the forecast accuracy of the proposed stochastic financial analytics model is found to be considerably superior to other techniques commonly used furthermore in computer simulation experiments the proposed model is found to be largely robust to supply chain dynamics including when subjected to severe bullwhip effect the proposed model has been implemented in excel which allows it to be easily integrated with the accounts receivable aging data making it practicable for small and large firms

information distortion in a supply chain the bullwhip effect this article originally appeared in management science april 1997 volume 43 number 4 pp 546 558 published by the institute of management sciences consider a series of companies in a supply chain each of whom orders from its immediate upstream member in this setting inbound orders from a downstream member serve as a valuable informational input to upstream production and inventory decisions this paper claims that the information transferred in the form of orders tends to be distorted and can misguide upstream members in their inventory and production decisions in particular the variance of orders may be larger than that of sales and distortion tends to increase as one moves upstream a phenomenon termed bullwhip effect this paper analyzes four sources of the bullwhip effect demand signal processing rationing game order batching and price variations actions that can be taken to mitigate the detrimental impact of this distortion are also discussed

financial development environmental quality trade and economic growth what causes what in mena countries this paper examines the relationship between financial development co2 emissions trade and economic growth using simultaneous equation panel data models for a panel of 12 mena countries over the period 1990 2011 our results indicate that there is evidence of bidirectional causality between co2 emissions and economic growth economic growth and trade openness are interrelated i e bidirectional causality feedback hypothesis is validated between trade openness and financial development neutrality hypothesis is identified between co2 emissions and financial development unidirectional causality running from financial development to economic growth and from trade openness to co2 emissions is identified our empirical results also verified the existence of environmental kuznets curve these empirical insights are of particular interest to policymakers as they help build sound economic policies to sustain economic development and to improve the environmental quality

determinants of china s energy imports an empirical analysis sustained economic growth in china has triggered a surge of energy imports especially oil imports this paper investigates the determinants of china s energy import demand by using cointegraiton and vecm techniques the findings suggest that in the long run growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect china s oil imports while domestic energy output has a substitution effect thus as the chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands china s oil imports are likely to increase though china s domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs it is anticipated that china will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price

household consumption of food away from home total expenditure and by type of food facility consistent with prior expectations based on household production theory household income time value size and composition and the environment in which production and consumption occurred were all important determinants of total household expenditures on food away from home however the importance of these factors varied by type of food facility conventional restaurants fast food facilities and other commercial establishments decomposition of the tobit elasticities indicated the differential importance of market participation effects of household size income and time value by level of the variable and by type of food facility

he came he saw and he waited an empirical analysis of inertia in technology adoption the innovation adoption literature has focused primarily on a producer s decision of whether and how much to adopt an equally pertinent question is when to adopt because in the case of new techno

calibrating benefit function transfer to assess the conservation reserve program benefit transfer offers an inexpensive alternative to conducting an original study to determine economic value unfortunately benefit transfers can also result in biased welfare estimates in this paper we suggest a method of calibrating the benefit transfer to reduce this bias an empirical example to determine the benefits of the conservation reserve program on water based recreation illustrates the potentially large biases that can result if the transfer is not calibrated

what drives the formation of global oil trade patterns abstract in this paper the spatial characteristics of current global oil trade patterns are investigated by proposing a new indicator moran f meanwhile the factors that influence the formation of oil trade patterns are identified by constructing four different kinds of spatial econometric models the findings indicate that most oil exporters have an obvious export focus in north america and a relatively balanced export in europe and the asia pacific region besides supply and demand factors technological progress and energy efficiency have also significantly influenced the oil trade moreover there is a spillover effect of trade flow among different regions but its impact is weak in addition oil importers in the same region have the potential to cooperate due to their similar import sources finally promotion of oil importers r d investments can effectively reduce the demand for global oil trade

carbon dioxide emissions and trade evidence from disaggregate trade data abstract the relationship between trade and environmental quality is a major controversial issue the paper intends to provide robust evidence and new insights into the discussion specifically it examines the effect of trade on carbon dioxide emissions co2 systematically in a north north north south south north and south south context it employs a panel data instrumental variable quantile approach to control for endogeneity and account for potential quantile parameter heterogeneity some important results emerge first trade with the north increases co2 emissions whereas trade with the south mitigates co2 emissions with a relatively larger effect for less polluted host countries second for advanced countries their trade with the south or the north leads to a reduction in co2 emissions the effect that seems relatively stronger for less polluted advanced countries third for developing countries their trade with the north worsens co2 emissions whereas their trade with the south mitigates co2 emissions with a larger effect for less polluted developing countries last the environmental kuznets hypothesis is also detected across quantiles for the full sample and both developing and advanced countries subsamples the findings suggest that trade benefits the advanced countries but could hurt the developing countries when trade with high income trading partners occurs in terms of co2 emissions

a box cox double hurdle model of wildlife valuation the citizen s perspective abstract a stated preference approach is used to elicit the attitudes of the general public towards coyote conservation the payment vehicle is presented in a way that explicitly prompts respondents to adopt a citizen perspective rather than a consumer perspective when responding to the survey to deal with the large numbers of zero responses a box cox double hurdle specification is used to model separately individuals choices about whether to support conservation or not and their choice about the level of support the results show that simpler analyses that do not account explicitly for these two different decisions would lead to misleading conclusions in the study of nuisance wildlife the study uses primary data from prince edward island canada

calculating marginal effects in models for zero expenditures in household budgets using a heckman type correction using the heckamn approach either in single equation or multi equation settings general expressions are derived for calculating marginal effects and elasticities in the conventional calculation of marginal effects terms related to the change in the inverse of mills ratio are omitted using data from the 19877 88 nationwide food consumption survey we calculate income and household size elasticities for 12 food commodities we compare the magnitudes and signs of the elasticities using the conventional expressions of marginal effects and our derived expressions bottomline sizeable differences especially in single equation applications can occur in calculating marginal effects if one fails to account for changes in the inverse of the mills ratio

working wives and the marginal propensity to consume food away from home contrary to predictions from the new household economics theory and heuristic thought income earned by wives working full time did not increase the marginal propensity to consume food away from home tobit estimates of the same propensity from other income sources in married u s households in 1978 showed that income earned by part time working wives and children asset income and transfer payments increased this propensity above that from husband s labor income whites had higher expenditures higher marginal propensities to consume and lower income elasticities for food away from home than nonwhites

conditions of reverse bullwhip effect in pricing under joint decision of replenishment and pricing abstract a reverse bullwhip effect in pricing rbp occurs when an amplification of price variability takes place moving from the upstream suppliers to the downstream customers in a supply chain in this study we investigate rbp conditions for supply chains where joint replenishment and pricing decisions are made commencing with a single stage supply chain in which a retailer faces a random and price sensitive demand we extend the results to a multi stage supply chain using a leader follower game theoretical framework we discuss rbp conditions for supply chains where newsvendor and continuous review inventory policies are employed and present numerical examples for commonly used demand functions

reverse bullwhip effect in pricing price variability is one of the major causes of the bullwhip effect this paper analyzes the impact of procurement price variability in the upstream of a supply chain on the downstream retail prices procurement prices may fluctuate over time for example when the supply chain players deploy auction type procurement mechanisms or if the prices are dictated in market exchanges a game theory framework is used here to model a serial supply chain sequential price game scenarios are investigated to show that there is an increase in retail price variability and an amplified reverse bullwhip effect on prices rbp under certain demand conditions

investment in soil conservation in northern ethiopia the role of land tenure security and public programs abstract a double hurdle statistical analysis of 250 farms in the tigray region of ethiopia reveals different causal factors for soil conservation adoption versus intensity of use farmers reasons for adopting soil conservation measures vary sharply between stone terraces and soil bunds long term investments in stone terraces were associated with secure land tenure labour availability proximity to the farmstead and learning opportunities via the existence of local food for work ffw projects by contrast short term investments in soil bunds were strongly linked to insecure land tenure and the absence of local food for work projects public conservation campaigns on private plots reduced adoption of both stone terraces and soil bunds whereas capacity factors largely influenced the adoption decision expected returns carried more influence for the intensity of stone terrace adoption measured as metres of terrace per hectare more stone terracing was built where fertile but erodible silty soils in higher rainfall areas offered valuable yield benefits intensity of terracing was also greater in remote villages where limited off farm employment opportunities reduced construction costs these results highlight the importance of the right kind of public interventions direct public involvement in constructing soil conservation structures on private lands appears to undermine incentives for private conservation investments when done on public lands however public conservation activities may encourage private soil conservation by example secure land tenure rights clearly reinforce private incentives to make long term investments in soil conservation

capacity allocation using past sales when to turn and earn consider a supplier selling to multiple retailers demand varies across periods but the supplier s capacity and wholesale price are fixed if demand is high the retailers needs exceed capacity and the supplier must implement an allocation mechanism to dole out production we examine how the choice of mechanism impacts retailer actions and supply chain performance in particular we analyze turn and earn allocation a method commonly used in the automobile industry this scheme bases current allocations on past sales and thus enables retailers to influence their future allocations they compete for scarce capacity even if they do not compete for customers we show that turn and earn induces the retailers to increase their sales when demand is low and the supplier s capacity is otherwise underutilized supplier profits thus increase the impact on the supply chain depends on how restrictive capacity is with mildly tight capacity the retailers higher sales rate does not significantly lower their profits but does reduce the cost of idle capacity supply chain performance improves with extremely tight capacity the retailers intense competition dissipates more profits than the supplier gains and supply chain performance suffers consequently turn and earn does not generally coordinate the system it is best characterized as a means for the supplier to increase her profits at the expense of the retailers and potentially even the supply chain furthermore these results hold even if the retailers can hold inventory in anticipation of scarce capacity

managing supply chain demand variability with scheduled ordering policies this paper studies supply chain demand variability in a model with one supplier and n retailers that face stochastic demand retailers implement scheduled ordering policies orders occur at fixed intervals and are equal to some multiple of a fixed batch size a method is presented that exactly evaluates costs previous research demonstrates that the supplier s demand variance declines as the retailers order intervals are balanced i e the same number of retailers order each period this research shows that the supplier s demand variance will generally decline as the retailers order interval is lengthened or as their batch size is increased lower supplier demand variance can certainly lead to lower inventory at the supplier this paper finds that reducing supplier demand variance with scheduled ordering policies can also lower total supply chain costs

durables and wives employment yet again the literature examining the relationship between consumer durables expenditures and wives employment is analyzed several deficiencies in the literature are corrected in a revised model that is estimated with data from the 1977 1978 survey of consumer expenditures this article concludes that durables expenditures and wives employment time are complements

food expenditures and socioeconomic characteristics focus on income class changes in food consumption and expenditures in american households have been a topic of much research throughout the twentieth century so it is well known that income influences food expenditure patterns furthermore programs that increase the purchasing power of low income households e g the food stamp program also positively affect food expenditures given that income influences food ex

changing household characteristics and the away from home food market a censored equation system approach abstract the american consumer is obtaining more and more of his or her food at a restaurant and that worries some people concerned with the nation s dietary health to date much of this concern seems to be directed at the fast food segment of the restaurant industry this paper asks whether targeting one segment of the industry such as fast food restaurants is justified or whether a more balanced view of eating away from home is required to answer this question we look to the future and ask whether americans can be expected to purchase increasingly more fast food or more and more of the foods typically associated with full service dining one view is that sales at full service restaurants will now grow relatively faster than sales of fast food the argument supporting this position rests on rising incomes the aging of the population smaller household sizes and other changes taking place in the population using a new full information maximum likelihood procedure for estimating a system of censored expenditure equations we find evidence to support this argument

how does foreign direct investment affect pollution toward a better understanding of the direct and conditional effects this paper seeks to investigate the impact of foreign direct investments fdis on industrial pollution hbox co 2 hbox so 2 hbox no mathrm x and bod emissions on a large sample of highly heterogeneous countries by using panel data on manufacturing fdis from france germany sweden and the united kingdom between 1995 and 2008 and by developing an empirical model with first and second order interaction terms we investigate the existence and the conditionality of the most controversial fdi induced effects on industrial emissions i e pollution haven factor endowments and pollution halo hypotheses the paper has three main findings 1 the central hypotheses linking pollution to fdi are found to act simultaneously with opposing effects 2 fdis are associated with pollution reduction i e predominating pollution halo induced effect in countries with low to average capital to labour ratio but not too lax environmental regulation 3 fdis are found to increase pollution i e prevailing pollution haven and or factor endowments induced effects in countries with average capital endowments and lax environmental regulations as well as in all the capital abundant countries though with a smaller magnitude in countries having strict environmental regulations and or a high skilled labour force some specific and interesting findings are discussed regarding different fdi origin countries and fdi host country groups

the demand for alcoholic beverages in spain the objective of this study is to analyze the main determinants of alcoholic beverages consumption at home data comes from the latest spanish household national survey which provides information on expenditure and quantities of different food products by household because households are interviewed only 1 week a large number of zeros have been recorded among the existing censured demand models the double hurdle dh model the purchase infrequency model and the tobit purchase infrequency model among others and after carrying out model selection tests the dh model has been finally estimated all expenditure elasticities are positive corresponding the highest value to spirits own price elasticities are negative and also in this case the spirits exhibit the highest value socio economic variables also play an important role in explaining consumer purchase and consumption decisions

re exploring the trade and environment nexus through the diffusion of pollution some scholars argue that trade liberalization results in the outsourcing of pollution to pollution havens and this may explain the existence of the environmental kuznets curve ekc in industrialized countries others claim that trade liberalization effectively lessens pollution by allowing a more efficient use of resources and the diffusion of clean technologies in part because these theories generate similar predictions for industrialized countries empirical studies have not provided conclusive evidence for either argument to identify the role of trade i draw on the insights of the diffusion literature and estimate a spatial regression model where trade operates as the mechanism through which pollution shifts from country to country using the case of per capita carbon dioxide hbox co 2 emissions i find that once spatial correlation is accounted for the ekc disappears the effect is even stronger when looking at trade from developing countries only providing support for the pollution haven hypothesis i also show that the hbox co 2 trajectory of developing countries goes above the one previously followed by industrialized countries this suggests that developing countries carry on an additional carbon burden above the one that would be obtained in the absence of trade these findings contribute to the literature on the non economic effects of trade and the constraints of domestic policies when the costs of trade are low

analysis of food away from home expenditure patterns for u s households 1982 89 the two step decision process for food away from home fafh consumption is empirically estimated using a generalization of the heien and wessells approach household information gathered by the national panel diary group is used for the analysis marginal effects are corrected by untangling the respective variable impacts on the inverse mills ratio expenditure and participation probability elasticities are similar to previous studies income elasticities are about 0 20 suggesting that the fafh commodity is a necessary good for u s society northeastern households are less likely to consume fafh than other households but their expenditures are higher on average

quantifying the bullwhip effect using two echelon data a cross industry empirical investigation the bullwhip effect denotes the phenomenon whereby demand variability is amplified from a downstream site buyer to an upstream site supplier in the supply chain this paper contributes to the literature that empirically investigates the bullwhip effect by providing new evidence regarding its prevalence and magnitude in contrast to previous work we use a two echelon approach which allows us to observe variations at both the upstream and the downstream sites by drawing on a financial accounting standard regarding information disclosure about major customers we are able to link 5494 buyers and suppliers in the u s between 1976 and 2009 we merge this information with quarterly financial accounting data to form a sample of 14 933 buyer supplier dyad observations we correct for sample selection bias using propensity score matching and estimate the average bullwhip effect in our sample to be 1 90 i e 90 demand variability amplification between echelons a significant bullwhip effect is observed across industries mining manufacturing wholesale and retail and is supported by several robustness checks we investigate and discuss how these results can be generalized beyond our sample

rural electrification and household labor supply evidence from nigeria in nigeria the most populated african country rural electrification is a critical issue because of the low household electrification rate and the poor quality of the grid this energy poverty has harmful economic and social consequences in rural areas such as low productivity lack of income generating opportunities and poor housing conditions in this paper we consider electrification as a technical shock that may affect household time allocation using the 2010 2011 general household survey we investigate how electrification affects female and male labor supply decisions within rural households in nigeria focusing on husband wife data we consider potential dependence in spouses labor supply decisions and address the challenge of zero hours of work using a recent copula based bivariate hurdle model deb et al 2013 in addition an instrumental variable strategy helps identify the causal effect of elec trification our results underline that this dependence in spouses labor supply decisions is critical to consider when assessing the impact of electrification on these outcomes electrifi cation increases the working time of both spouses in the separate assessments but the joint analysis emphasizes only a positive effect of electrification on husbands working time in line with the household labor supply approach our findings highlight that within the household the labor supply decisions of one spouse significantly affect those of the other spouse thus if we neglect the effect of electrification on the spouse of the individual examined we may fail to assess how this individual has been actually affected by this common shock on both spouses our results suggest that these within household relationships promote husbands working time at the expense of wives working time

impact of changes in crude oil trade network patterns on national economy abstract crude oil is one of the most important energy sources for the development of the national economy the regions along the belt and road are rich in crude oil resources as the belt and road initiative b r initiative progresses and develops further an increasing numbers of countries are participating which thus increases trade cooperation and changes the pattern of crude oil trade among countries along the belt and road b r countries this change will have various impacts on the economies of different countries based on the complex network and econometric theory we study the impact of crude oil trade pattern changes of the b r countries on each country s gdp we obtained the following results 1 the impact of national trade influence on gdp was significant and positive particularly after the initiative was proposed 2 the centrality of the country s role in the trade network had a significant and favorable impact on gdp but it was weakened after the initiative was introduced 3 the impact of the country s import risk in the network on gdp was negative 4 for countries with different economic levels changes in the role of national trade had various effects on their gdps

analyzing time varying volatility spillovers between the crude oil markets using a new method abstract the spillover effect is an important factor affecting the volatility of crude oil price basing on the study of diebold and yilmaz 2009 2012 2014 we propose a new method that calculates the time varying volatility spillover indexes by the generalized forecast error variance decomposition of tvp var sv model then using the new method we study the time varying volatility spillovers between four major crude oil markets wti brent oman tapis from november 29 2002 to july 13 2018 by comparing the results of our new method and traditional rolling window method we verify the superiority of our new method the results show that the volatility spillovers calculated by the new method are clearer more stable and not outlier sensitive from the estimated results of time varying volatility spillovers we find that the volatility spillover between crude oil markets is slowly increasing but there are obvious cyclical changes and from the correlation analysis and the granger causality test we find that the volatility and volatility spillovers are positively correlated and are two way granger causality which supported for the market infection hypothesis of king and wadhwani 1990

comments on information distortion in a supply chain the bullwhip effect in this commentary we trace back how we pursued research on the bullwhip effect which resulted in the article published in management science we reflect on the evolution of this concept the impact that our work has had on industry the way our work has been used in the teaching of supply chain management and the key directions of research that have taken place since then

supply chain decision making will shorter cycle times and shared point of sale information necessarily help using a simulated supply chain experiment based on the well known beer game we examine how changes in order and delivery cycles availability of shared point of sale pos information and the pattern of customer demand affect supply chain efficiency we find that speeding up cycle time is beneficial but the sharing of pos information is not necessarily so whether or not the sharing of pos information is beneficial depends on the nature of the demand pattern represented by the pos information if the demand pattern conveys continual change in ultimate downstream customer demand as does an s shaped demand pattern the pos information can distract the upstream decision maker from what is perhaps more immediately relevant information orders placed by the proximate downstream agent and the supply line

a strategic model of social and economic networks we study the stability and efficiency of social and economic networks when self interested individuals can form or sever links first for two stylized models we characterize the stable and efficient networks there does not always exist a stable network that is efficient next we show that this tension persists generally to assure that there exists a stable network that is efficient one is forced to allocate resources to nodes that are not responsible for any of the production we characterize one such allocation rule the equal split rule and another rule that arises naturally from bargaining of the players

forecasting the good and bad uncertainties of crude oil prices using a har framework abstract good or bad uncertainty is the volatility that is associated with positive or negative innovations to asset prices this paper proposes new heterogeneous autoregressive type har type models to forecast the good and bad uncertainties of crude oil prices in this paper we investigate the effects of lagged bad and good uncertainties daily positive and negative signed jump variations and leverages on predicting good and bad uncertainties by in sample and out of sample analysis the in sample results show that bad and good uncertainties have long memory property and the predictability of long term good and bad uncertainties is stronger than that of short and mid term good and bad uncertainties the out of sample results indicate that lagged bad or good uncertainties daily positive signed jump variation and daily negative signed jump variation contain incremental out of sample information for forecasting good or bad uncertainties and in most cases lagged leverages also play indispensable roles in forecasting the good and bad uncertainties in the crude oil market moreover the results of out of sample analysis remain robust across using the other estimation window other har type models and the other sample

exploring the driving factors of global lng trade flows using gravity modelling abstract taking into account the attributes of the liquefied natural gas lng trade and the space time characteristics of trade flows this paper identifies the multiple dimensional factors that influenced the global lng trade between 2004 and 2015 following an analysis of the data via the application of gravity models the empirical results of this study indicate that these influencing factors possess both general and regional characteristics in contrast to general trade the lng trade is mainly affected by the economic magnitude of the demand side regionally pipeline natural gas has a significant substitute effect on the lng trade within the global model though not within the asian model additionally the lng trade in asia is more sensitive to the influence of import prices and research and development investment than in the global model our subsample analyses show that the results are robustness across different periods finally this paper discusses pertinent policy implications for the lng trade especially as related to asia

heterogeneous returns to chemical fertilizer at the intensive margins insights from nepal increased fertilizer use is considered important for agricultural development in low income countries promoting increased use of chemical fertilizer by lowering its price may be ineffective if demand is price inelastic in theory the price elasticity of demand depends on the returns to its use but the evidence is scarce furthermore while returns are often estimated for small changes in chemical fertilizer use returns to larger changes in its use intensive margins are less understood through the inter zonal comparisons in nepal we provide indicative evidence that greater returns to chemical fertilizer are associated with greater price elasticities of demand moreover the evidence suggests that returns at the intensive margins rather than returns to small changes may largely account for inter zonal differences in returns to chemical fertilizer within nepal the results suggest that better understanding the returns at the intensive margins is critical for effective agricultural inputs policies in developing countries

energy intensity and investment ownership across chinese provinces abstract the main objective of this paper is to investigate whether openness and investment ownership are key factors in explaining the diffusion of energy saving technologies in china compared with previous studies the novel aspect of this work is the use of a rich dataset at provincial level which allows the high level of regional heterogeneity to be taken into consideration the unbalanced regional growth has been translated into differences in the need for energy resources across the vast territory of china a detailed analysis of these issues may provide new insights into the energy situation in this country the analysis is also disaggregated by type of energy coal electricity and petroleum we estimate the models by panel corrected standard errors developed by beck and katz 1995 over the period 1985 2008 results obtained confirm the hypothesis that both foreign and non state investments play a leading role in the decline of energy intensity across chinese regions whereas there is no evidence of a positive contribution of state investment the findings also reveal differences in energy intensity across regions thus confirming the importance of accounting for the regional dimension when analyzing energy consumption in china

the time cost of food at home general and food stamp participant profiles little is known about the cost of time in food preparation at home yet this economic variable is a common thread running through recent concerns about obesity and the food stamp fs program this article provides initial estimates of the time cost in food preparation at home for the united states two standard methods of estimation are implemented and three demographic profiles are considered i the general population ii the typical fs participant and iii the typical fs participant following the united states department of agriculture thrifty food plan for the general population and averaging across methods the time cost share of total food cost is about 30 if the individual works in the market and at home but it is about 49 if the individual does not work in the market for the typical fs participant especially one following the thrifty food plan the time cost share of total food cost can be as much as 26 higher than the general population these substantial percentages provide strong i

mitigating the bullwhip effect by ordering policies and forecasting methods abstract the bullwhip effect in which order variability increases as one moves up the supply chain has been observed in a range of industries modeled by several authors and various remedies suggested this paper provides a simulation of the effect of improved forecasting methods and finds that holt s and brown s methods substantially mitigate the bullwhip effect across a range of performance metrics the end result is to identify ordering policies that perform particularly well in combination with these forecasting methods and indicate how they can be implemented in practice

is maternal employment related to childhood obesity in china evidence from the china health and nutrition survey using five waves from the china health and nutrition survey chns we investigate the association between maternal employment and obesity in children aged 3 17 in both rural and urban china using body mass index bmi and waist circumference wc as measures for paediatric adiposity we provide scant evidence for its relation to maternal employment we also find no strong association between maternal employment and our measures for children s diet and physical activity our study also suggests that grand parenting could have beneficial effects on childhood obesity

the roles of countries in the international fossil fuel trade an emergy and network analysis abstract a better understanding of the roles of countries in the international fossil fuel trade is crucial for trade security and policy optimization this study aims to provide a new way to quantitatively analyze the roles of countries in the international fossil fuel trade by complex network analysis and emergy theory we transform the trade quantity of coal crude oil and natural gas into emergy and the sum of the three emergies is the emergy of fossil fuel we build up network models of fossil fuel based on the value of fossil fuel emergy then the top relationships the central position the intermediary ability of the countries and the roles of countries in the trade groups were used to analyze the roles of countries in the international fossil fuel trade network we choose four countries the usa china russia and saudi arabia as examples to show the analysis of roles and policy implications we suggest that the usa and russia should try to improve their intermediary abilities by diversifying their trade orientations and pay more attention to building up relationships with countries in different communities china should seek for more tight relationships with other countries to improve its central position and more pipelines connecting china russia and other middle asia countries are needed as for saudi arabia expanding its industrial chain of crude oil is a better way to deal with the more fierce competition in the market

wife s employment food expenditures and apparent nutrient intake evidence from canada the increase in women working outside the home has had important economic effects one effect involves food expenditures both in terms of patterns of eating out and the types of foods prepared in the home with consequent effects on nutrient availability this study examines the effect of wife s employment on an extensive set of variables describing food behavior the variables include the share of food in total expenditure the share of food away from home fafh in the food budget price paid per calorie and the per capita availability of twelve nutrients the results are of potential interest for food policy for nutrition education and for programs which aim to affect the nutrient composition of food eaten outside the home restaurant food fast food school meals etc in ad

spanish food expenditure away from home fafh by type of meal changes in household income wife s labour force participation household size and other demographic factors influence purchasing meals away from home in spain spanish household expenditure on lunch breakfast and snacks away from home were investigated within the household production theory context the becker s model states that consumers maximize their utility subject not only to the budget constraint but also to a time constraint moreover this model assumes that consumers demand not only the food product itself but also the associated convenience to save time in food preparation therefore the relation between the value of time and food away from home has a high relevance data come from the spanish continuous household survey for 1996 due to the large number of zeros in the dependent variable different dependent variable censured models double hurdle infrequency of purchase etc have been specified and estimated these studies found that food purchasing behaviour away from home of spanish

an exogeneity test for a simultaneous equation tobit model with an application to labor supply a test of weak exogeneity in the simultaneous equation tobit model is proposed and illustrated using a female labour supply model estimated using cross section data the test statistic can be simply output from any standard tobit maximum likelihood package and is asymptotically efficient the procedure provides consistent estimators for the simultaneous tobit model whose asymptotic covariance matrix is a simple extension of the usual tobit formula we also provide the lagrange multiplier test of weak exogeneity this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a sample selection model for prepared food expenditures the factors affecting household expenditures on four types of prepared food products from a sample selection model estimated using a two step method are explored results suggest that several variables affect household expenditures on various prepared food products factors examined are presence of children number of earners region household size seasonality age race education and income