cycles in politics wavelet analysis of political time series spectral analysis and arma models have been the most common weapons of choice for the detection of cycles in political time series controversies about cycles however tend to revolve around an issue that both techniques are badly equipped to address the possibility of irregular cycles without fixed periodicity throughout the entire time series this has led to two main consequences on the one hand proponents of cyclical theories have often dismissed established statistical techniques on the other hand proponents of established techniques have dismissed the possibility of cycles without fixed periodicity wavelets allow the detection of transient and coexisting cycles and structural breaks in periodicity in this article we present the tools of wavelet analysis and apply them to the study of two lingering puzzles in the political science literature the existence of cycles in election returns in the united states and in the severity of major power wars

shifts in the composition of government spending in response to external debt burden abstract this paper examines the effects of external public debt burden on the composition of public spending in a sample of 47 developing countries for 1972 2001 we specify a system of equations for the relative spending shares of six economic categories and estimate it using several estimation methods and samples we find support for the adverse effect of the debt burden on capital expenditure in the full sample and in the middle east north africa and sub saharan africa subsamples where the debt burden was relatively high among components of current expenditure increased debt burden shifted the shares against nonwage goods services and subsidy and transfers while leaving the share of politically sensitive category of wages and salaries unscathed in most cases

long run welfare under externalities in consumption leisure and production a case for happy degrowth vs unhappy growth in this paper we contribute to the debate on the relationship between growth and well being by examining an endogenous growth model where we allow for externalities in consumption leisure and production we analyze three regimes a decentralized economy where each household makes isolated choices without considering their external effects a planned economy where a myopic planner fails to recognize both leisure and consumption externalities but recognizes production externalities and a planned economy with a fully informed planner we first compare the balanced growth paths under the three regimes and then we numerically investigate the transition to the optimal balanced growth path we provide a number of findings first in a decentralized economy growth or labor or both are greater than in the regime with a fully informed planner and hence are sub optimal from a welfare standpoint second a myopic intervention which overlooks consumption and leisure externalities leads to more growth and labor than in both the decentralized and the fully informed regime third we provide a case for happy degrowth a transition to the optimal balanced growth path that is associated with downscaling of production a reduction in private consumption and an ongoing increase in leisure and well being

government social spending and gdp has there been a change in social policy government social spending gss is made up of a very heterogeneous range of variables monetary transfers for retirement or illness unemployment benefits family services active labour market policies and health expenditure we believe that each of these components is of enormous importance to the economic development of a country as has often been affirmed however gss is one of the economic aggregates most sensitive to the ups and downs of economic growth in moments of crisis sharp cuts are almost immediate and these may or may not be recovered when times are good in this article we examine the sensitivity of gss to the evolution of gross domestic product gdp in order to reveal the relationship between the two

morishima on ricardo a rejoinder in his reply to our review article kurz and salvadori 1992 of his ricardo s economics morishima 1989 morishima called our criticisms insignificant from the point of view of elaborating and developing the main problems posed or discussed in the book he added i have to say that i am unable to accept any of the criticisms they made morishima 1996 p 92 1 if morishima were right in regarding our criticisms as mistaken or not pertinent then the latter could hardly have any bearing on his inter pretation of ricardo however this is not the case all our objections stand firm none is refuted by morishima in his reply in much of his paper he tilts at windmills this will be shown in the following for the reader s convenience we shall retain the order in which morishima deals with our criticisms we begin with a few general remarks and conclude with a brief statement on the bearing of our criticism on the main problems posed or discussed in ricardo s economics placing special emphasis on the relationship between the analyses of ricardo and walras

the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy we investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a bayesian structural vector autoregression b svar approach we identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme but also i include the feedback from government debt ii look at the impact on the composition of output iii assess the effects on asset markets iv use quarterly data and v analyse empirical evidence from the us the uk germany and italy the results show that government spending shocks in general have a small effect on gross domestic product gdp lead to important crowding out effects have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices the empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model

does higher government debt link to higher social expenditure new method new evidence abstractscholars believe that higher social expenditures are usually linked with higher government debts whereas higher debts reduce social expenditures however it is reasonable to speculate that higher government debt may contribute to higher social spending while fiscal deficits occur during a recession which commonly creates greater demand for social expenditure for a deeper investigation this paper revisits the dynamic relationship between social spending and public debts in the time frequency domain using the novel wavelet coherency analysis as well as the phase difference technique to derive the co moved and causal relationships between social spending and public debts in 13 oecd countries the evidence identifies a dynamic relationship between variables while higher social expenditures increase government debts the shocks from government debts to social expenditures are conversely uncertain we discover that higher government debt does reduce social expenditures but it may be linked to h

pasinetti versus rebelo two different models or just one abstract pasinetti s pasinetti l l 1960 a mathematical formulation of the ricardian system review of economic studies 27 78 98 model formalizing ricardian growth theory and one of the simplest models developed within the new growth theory rebelo s 1991 long run policy analysis and long run growth journal of political economy 99 500 521 are shown to share the same structure this enforces the thesis according to which many endogenous growth models have a classical flavour the main difference from pasinetti s to rebelo s framework may be interpreted as reflecting the change in the consumption pattern of workers from early to late industrial societies

public debt accumulation and fiscal consolidation in this study we analyse the relationship between interest rates on government bonds gb and the fiscal consolidation rule by using an overlapping generation model with endogenous and stochastic growth settings our key findings are summarized as follows first contrary to conventional view we find that interest rates on gb may decline as public debt accumulates relative to private capital second the simulation reveals that the economy may exhibit discrete changes with divergent interest rates implying that the observed trend of relatively low interest rates on gb with public debt accumulation may not continue indefinitely in the future third fiscal consolidation rule plays a key role in determining equilibrium interest rates

from stationary state to endogenous growth international trade in the mathematical formulation of the ricardian system in his 1814 15 correspondence with malthus and in his essay on profits ricardo championed the free importation of wage goods as a highly effective growth enhancing policy in order to capture this aspect in the mathematical formulation of the ricardian system first introduced by pasinetti in 1960 in the context of a closed economy we produce a variant of that model where the economy is a small open one we show that this economy is characterised by endogenous growth since the growth rate is bounded from below and we locate two thresholds concerning the allocation of labour among the two sectors of the economy and the pattern of international trade

bank reforms foreign ownership and financial stability abstract numerous studies have focused on foreign ownership of banks but instead of linkages to financial stability they typically analyzed other issues and used country level data this article fills the gap in the literature by applying the gmm techniques on dynamic panels using bank level data for asian countries to investigate the impact of foreign ownership on financial stability as well as whether the relation between foreign ownership and stability changes under different conditions of bank reforms in the host country specifically we reach five conclusions first the existence of the home field advantage hypothesis is supported nevertheless when considering the effects of bank reforms the global advantage hypothesis holds second an inverse u shaped relation between foreign ownership and stability is supported third a higher degree of credit control liberalization mitigates the negative effect of foreign ownership on stability fourth liberalization of interest rate control and banking supervision do enhance stability fifth and finally we confirm a significantly negative relation between an explicit deposit and stability

the link between life insurance activities and economic growth some new evidence abstract this paper applies the panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented dickey fuller suradf test to re investigate the stationarity properties of real life insurance premiums per capita and real gross domestic product gdp per capita for 41 countries within three levels of income covering 1979 2007 our empirical results first reveal that the variables in these countries are a mixture of i 0 and i 1 processes and that the traditional panel unit root tests could lead to misleading inferences second for the estimated half lives the degrees of mean reversion are greater in high income countries third there is concrete evidence favoring the hypothesis of a long run equilibrium relationship between real gdp and real life insurance premiums after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run estimated panel parameter results indicate that a 1 increase in the real life premium raises real gdp by 0 06 finally we determine that the development of life insurance markets and economic growth exhibit long run and short run bidirectional causalities these findings offer several useful insights for policy makers and researchers

revisiting the relationship between spot and futures oil prices evidence from quantile cointegrating regression article i nfo since most real decisions depend upon current market states or whether it is advantageous to the participants themselves this paper revisits the relationship between spot and futures oil prices of west texas intermediate covering 1986 to 2009 with an innovative approach named quantile cointegration different to previous perspectives we target the issues of cointegrating relationships causalities and market efficiency based on different market states under different maturities of oil futures in our empirical analysis except for market efficiency long run cointegrating relationships and causalities between spot and futures oil prices have significant differentials among futures maturities and the performances of spot oil markets furthermore the response of spot prices to shocks in 1 month futures oil prices is much steeper in high spot prices than in low spot prices this phenomenon is consistent with the prospect theory kahneman and tversky 1979 in that the value function is generally steeper for losses than for gains

the impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels an empirical investigation for the euro area abstract this paper investigates the average impact of government debt on per capita gdp growth in twelve euro area countries over a period of about 40 years starting in 1970 it finds a non linear impact of debt on growth with a turning point beyond which the government debt to gdp ratio has a negative impact on long term growth at about 90 100 of gdp confidence intervals for the debt turning point suggest that the negative growth effect of high debt may start already from levels of around 70 to 80 of gdp the channels through which government debt is found to have a non linear impact on the economic growth rate are private saving public investment and total factor productivity

is social protection a necessity or a luxury good new multivariate cointegration panel data results the aim of this paper is to test the claim that social protection is a luxury good therefore gdp elasticity of selected social protection expenditure is estimated using a new econometric approach developed first by kao and chiang advances in econometrics 15 179 222 2000 time series properties of selected social expenditure in 18 oecd countries from 1981 to 1998 are examined using panel data cointegration tests and ols fmols and dols estimators results were found which differ from previous analyses reporting substantially higher income elasticities with the fmols selected social expenditure has income elasticities smaller than one but greater than one with the dols it is noteworthy that whether selected social expenditure is stationary or nonstationary may have critical implications for researchers and policy makers desiring to model and explain the impact of this expenditure on a country economic system

morishima on ricardo two replies although ricardo does not use the concept general equilibrium his model may be described in terms of several sectors forming a consistent system we can find many similarities in formulations and conclusions between his and walras economics despite the fact that historians of economic thought generally tend to reject such a portrait of ricardo this paper is mainly a response to kurz salvadori s criticisms of morishima s ricardo from sraffa s point of view none of the criticisms is accepted the author also defends himself from peach whom he takes to be representative of the historians view of ricardo

the neo ricardians focuses on the neoclassical theory of economics in great britain calculation for the standard commodity assumptions of piedro sraffa on the cycle of production functions of the rate of return ebsco

money and output new evidence based on wavelet coherence abstract we reassess the relationship between money and output using quarterly data from the us economy we use several tools based on wavelets the wavelet power transform and the wavelet coherence with which we analyze this relationship in both time and frequency we find evidence of a weaker relationship within the great moderation as well as a stronger relationship during the great recession

do oil spot and futures prices move together abstract this paper investigates the time varying correlation and the causal relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices using a newly developed approach wavelet coherency analysis in time frequency domain first we find evidence of a long run cointegration relationship between oil spot and futures prices moreover the short run causality is more significant in shorter maturity pairs versus longer maturity pairs in the vector error correction framework second the results from wavelet coherency analysis show significant dynamic correlations between variables in the time frequency domain third the illustration of the phase difference series around zero suggests that spot and futures prices contribute to the dynamics of the long run equilibrium fourth and finally we provide reasons for the structural changes in oil prices and also recommend investment strategies corresponding to risk diversification future studies focusing on the behavior of oil prices should consider the characteristics of the time frequency space and lead lag dynamic relationships