competition and entrepreneurs human capital in small business longevity and growth abstract an analysis of data on a sample of small scale manufacturers shows that a business is less likely to survive and grows slower the smaller the average price cost margin in the industry in which it operates the probability of survival is also smaller in import competing industries so is the mean growth rate among survivors we interpret this as evidence that small businesses are less likely to survive and grow slower in industries where the pressure of competition is stronger given competitive pressure and establishment characteristics the probability of business survival and the expected growth rate conditional on survival both increase with entrepreneurial human capital this is in the sense that the probability of business survival increases with the number of years of schooling and the number of years of business experience of the entrepreneur as does the expected growth rate conditional on survival these results are consistent with another finding that unobservable influences on business

financial portfolio management through the goal programming model current state of the art abstract since markowitz 1952 formulated the portfolio selection problem many researchers have developed models aggregating simultaneously several conflicting attributes such as the return on investment risk and liquidity the portfolio manager generally seeks the best combination of stocks assets that meets his her investment objectives the goal programming gp model is widely applied to finance and portfolio management the aim of this paper is to present the different variants of the gp model that have been applied to the financial portfolio selection problem from the 1970s to nowadays

portfolio analysis with factors and scenarios recently there has been a growing interest in the scenario model of covariance as an alternative to the one factor or many factor models we show how the covariance matrix resulting from the scenario model can easily be made diagonal by adding new variables linearly related to the amounts invested note the meanings of these new variables note how portfolio variance divides itself into within scenario and between scenario variances and extend the results to models in which scenarios and factors both appear where factor distributions and effects may or may not be scenario sensitive

a fuzzy goal programming approach to portfolio selection abstract portfolio selection is a usual multiobjective problem this paper will try to deal with the optimum portfolio for a private investor taking into account three criteria return risk and liquidity these objectives in general are not crisp from the point of view of the investor so we will deal with them in fuzzy terms the problem formulation is a goal programming g p one where the goals and the constraints are fuzzy we will apply a fuzzy g p approach to the above problem to obtain a solution then we will offer the investor help in handling the results

empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics abstract this paper considers two models of firm behavior that allow for heterogeneity among firms idiosyncratic or firm specific sources of uncertainty and discrete outcomes exit and or entry both the characteristics of firm level panel data sets and the nature of the questions we characteristically ask of them imply that models with these features are likely to underlie most detailed empirical work on microdata sets the models we consider are a bayesian learning model due to jovanovic 20 and a model of research and exploration due to ericson and pakes 11 the paper provides a simple set of empirical procedures to help determine which if either of these two models might be appropriate for alternative data sets we conclude by checking for the implications of the two models on an eight year panel of wisconsin firms the results indicate that one model is consistent with the data on manufacturing firms while the other is consistent with the data on retail trade journal of economic literature classification numbers c52 l60 l80

asset allocation with distorted beliefs and transaction costs abstract in this paper we study the problem of the optimal portfolio selection with transaction costs for a decision maker who is faced with knightian uncertainty the decision maker s portfolio consists of one risky and one risk free asset and we assume that the transaction costs are proportional to the traded volume of the risky asset the attitude to uncertainty is modeled by the choquet expected utility we derive optimal strategies and bounds of the no transaction region for both optimistic and pessimistic decision makers the no transaction region of a pessimistic investor is narrower and its bounds lie closer to the origin than that of an optimistic trader moreover under the choquet expected utility the structure of the no transaction region is not necessarily a closed interval as it is under the standard expected utility model

government policy for a partially deregulated industry deregulate it fully alfred kahn was a major force behind regulatory reform that initially benefited air travelers and subsequently consumers in other industries by placing greater reliance on markets than on regulators to allocate resources kahn also believed that effective governance was important for deregulation s success in this paper i argue that such governance has not occurred in practice and that problems that persist in partially deregulated industries are more likely to be solved by full deregulation and if necessary privatization than by government intervention

on the relationship between firm size and export intensity export marketing literature supports the view that firm size is positively related to export intensity although the empirical findings have been mixed a number of theoretical arguments are used to support this proposition i e international marketing economies of scale limited managerial and financial resources of small firms decisionmaker s risk perception based on a large survey of the italian manufacturing industry the article falsifies the proposition and challenges some widely held assumptions in export marketing literature

business failure of new firms an empirical analysis using a multiplicative hazards model abstract this paper investigates business failure of new firms using a multiplicative hazards model we estimate the determinants of business failure among new manufacturing firms in tokyo during the period 1986 to 1994 it is found that a new firm without sufficient capital or a sufficient size has a higher risk of business failure it is also found that the new firm tends to have more difficulty surviving in an industry characterized by a high entry rate with respect to the timing of entry the new firm that entered just before or after the collapse of the so called bubble economy has been more likely to fail furthermore we estimate a regression model based not only on age but also on calendar time by using a regression model based on calendar time it is found that the firm s age has been related to business failure

the relationship between firm growth size and age estimates for 100 manufacturing industries this study uses a sample of all firms operating in 100 manufacturing industries to examine some aspects of firm dynamics it finds that firm growth the variability of firm growth and the probability that a firm will fail decrease with firm age it also finds that firm growth decreases at a diminishing rate with firm size even after controlling for the exit of slow growing firms from the sample gibrat s law therefore fails although the severity of the failure decreases with firm size copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

a multi period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with minimum transaction lots abstract in this paper we consider a multi period fuzzy portfolio optimization problem with minimum transaction lots based on possibility theory we formulate a mean semivariance portfolio selection model with the objectives of maximizing the terminal wealth and minimizing the cumulative risk over the whole investment horizon in the proposed model we take the return risk transaction costs diversification degree cardinality constraint and minimum transaction lots into consideration to reflect investor s aspiration levels for the two objectives a fuzzy decision technique is employed to transform the proposed model into a single objective mixed integer nonlinear programming problem then we design a genetic algorithm for solution finally we give an empirical application in chinese stock markets to demonstrate the idea of our model and the effectiveness of the designed algorithm

after airline deregulation and alfred e kahn among alfred e fred kahn s many accomplishments none is better remembered than his pivotal role in deregulation of the us airline industry kahn s commitment to marry core microeconomic principles with institutional analysis willingness as chairman of the civil aeronautics board to step outside the regulation as usual box and appealing wit made him the face of the airline deregulation act of 1978 one of the great microeconomic policy triumphs lessons drawn from kahn s work and the airline deregulation experience remain instructive for current academic research and regulatory policy design across broad sectors of the economy

age size growth and survival uk companies in the 1980s this paper examines growth and survival amongst quoted and unquoted u k companies in the period 1975 85 and compares the results with earlier u k and u s studies an examination of death rates shows that smaller companies had higher death rates but the largest and smallest companies were least vulnerable to takeover careful attention is therefore paid to problems of sample selection bias it is shown that smaller companies grew faster than larger companies that gibrat s law does not hold amongst smaller firms that age is negatively related to growth and that these results are not an artifact of sample selection bias copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

portfolio selection under strict uncertainty a multi criteria methodology and its application to the frankfurt and vienna stock exchanges abstract in modern portfolio theory it is common practice to first compute the risk reward efficient frontier and then to support an individual investor in selecting a portfolio that meets his her preferences for profitability and risk potential flaws include a the assumption that past data provide sufficient evidence for predicting the future performances of the securities under consideration and b the necessity to mathematically determine or approximate the investor s utility function in this paper we propose a methodology whose initial phase filters portfolios that are inefficient from a historical perspective while this is consistent with traditional approaches the second phase differs from the standard approach as it uses a decision table constructed by considering multiple scenarios assuming strict uncertainty the table cells measure consequences by a multi criteria linear performance index of simulated future returns which avoids difficulties with performance ratios the real world applicability is illustrated through two studies based on data from the stock exchanges in frankfurt and vienna

socially responsible investment a multicriteria approach to portfolio selection combining ethical and financial objectives abstract in a context of socially responsible investment sri this paper deals with portfolio selection for investors interested in ethical policies in the opportunity set there are ethical assets and other assets which are not characterized as ethical two goals are considered the traditional financial goal in the classical utility theory under uncertainty and an ethical goal in the same utility framework a new financial ethical bi criteria model is proposed with absolute risk aversion coefficients and targets depending on the investor s ethical profile this approach is relevant as an increasing number of mutual funds are becoming interested in sri strategies from the proposed model an actual case on green investment is developed concerning this case without generalizing to other contexts an analysis of the numerical results shows that efficient portfolios obtained by the traditional e v model outperform the strong green portfolios in terms of expected return and risk but this does not significantly occur with weak green investment

distinguished lecture on economics in government the private uses of public interests incentives and institutions as a long time student of the public sector i welcomed the opportunity to come to washington as a member of the council of economic advisers and later to become the chairman of the council partly because it gave me an opportunity to study at first hand this immensely important part of our economy and society and to test my ideas against the reality of government in action to be sure i came also as an activist if not with a fully articulated agenda at least with a view about what it was that government should and should not be doing my reference point was the fundamental theorems of welfare economics which as some describe them proved that the market left to itself would produce efficient allocations many saw in these theorems the vindication of adam smith s faith in the invisible hand leading the self interested decisions of each person to maximize the well being of the nation as a whole today many of us look at the fundamental theorem not as a description of the world but as an explication of the conditions under which a market equilibrium will be pareto efficient these conditions are quite strong the importance of some of the more explicit assumptions like the lack of externalities and the completeness of markets has long been known in the last two decades we have explored much more seriously the consequences of the informational assumptions implicit in the belief that markets are efficient in particular it has been shown that in the presence of imperfect information or incomplete markets the economy will not be pareto efficient in other words there joseph stiglitz is senior vice president and chief economist world bank washington d c stiglitz was a member of the council of economic advisers from 1993 95 and chairman

can privatization of u s highways improve motorists welfare abstract we assess the welfare effects of highway privatization accounting for government s behavior in setting the sale price firms strategic behavior in setting tolls and motorists heterogeneous preferences for speedy and reliable travel we find motorists are able to benefit from privatization by negotiating tolls with private providers that increase their consumer surplus surprisingly we find that by obtaining tolls and service that align with their varying preferences motorists may be better off negotiating with a monopolist than with duopoly providers or under public private competition toll regulation may be counterproductive because it is likely to treat motorists as homogeneous

the measurement and control of trading costs 1990 the measurement and control of trading costs financial analysts journal vol 46 no 6 pp 73 80

stochastic network programming for financial planning problems several financial planning problems are posed as dynamic generalized network models with stochastic parameters examples include asset allocation for portfolio selection international cash management and programmed trading arbitrage despite the large size of the resulting stochastic programs the network structure can be exploited within the solution strategy giving rise to efficient implementations empirical results are presented indicating the benefits of the stochastic network approach for the asset allocation case

new firm survival new results using a hazard function a limitation of audretsch s 1991 study of new firm survival was the level of aggregation to industries this precluded linking establishment specific characteristics such as organizational structure and size to post entry performance the purpose of this paper is to relate the post entry performance of individual establishments not only to their technological and market structure environments but also to establishment specific characteristics we do this by estimating a hazard duration function for more than 12 000 individual establishments in u s manufacturing started in 1976 by tracking their subsequent performance over a ten year period we conclude that establishment specific characteristics which audretsch was not able to capture in his earlier study play an important role in shaping the exposure to risk confronting new establishments copyright 1995 by mit press

a simple algorithm for optimal portfolio selection with fixed transaction costs the general optimal portfolio selection problem with fixed transaction costs is a complex mathematical programming problem however by placing reasonable restrictions on the variance covariance matrix of returns it is possible to simplify the solution of the problem specifically if the structure of returns between securities is such that the pairwise correlation coefficients are approximately the same a fairly simple algorithm which requires little computational effort can be employed this method can also be extended to the case where changes in the information set necessitate a revision of an existing portfolio

a simple approach to arbitrage pricing theory the following sections are included introductionarbitrage pricingdiscussionreferencesdiscussion notes on the arbitrage pricing theorypure arbitrage pricing theoryapproximate arbitrage and the aptapproximate factor modelsthe competitive equilibrium version of the aptconclusionnotereferences this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a possibilistic mean semivariance entropy model for multi period portfolio selection with transaction costs abstract this paper deals with a multi period portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns a possibilistic mean semivariance entropy model for multi period portfolio selection is presented by taking into account four criteria viz return risk transaction cost and diversification degree of portfolio in the proposed model the return level is quantified by the possibilistic mean value of return the risk level is characterized by the lower possibilistic semivariance of return and the diversification degree of portfolio is measured by the originally presented possibilistic entropy furthermore a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed to obtain the optimal portfolio strategy finally the comparison analysis between the possibilistic entropy model and the proportion entropy model is provided by two numerical examples to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approaches and the designed algorithm

portfolio rebalancing model with transaction costs based on fuzzy decision theory the fuzzy set is one of the powerful tools used to describe an uncertain environment as well as quantifying any potential return and risk portfolio liquidity is taken into account and a linear programming model for portfolio rebalancing with transaction costs is proposed the level of return that an investor might aspire to the risk and the liquidity of portfolio are vague in an uncertain financial environment considering them as fuzzy numbers we propose a portfolio rebalancing model with transaction costs based on fuzzy decision theory an example is given to illustrate the behavior of the proposed model using real data from the shanghai stock exchange

u s industry adjustment to economic deregulation conomic deregulation does not happen overnight it takes time for lawmakers and regulators to dismantle regulatory regimes and then it takes more time for the deregulated industries to adjust to their new competitive environment federal regulatory agencies and the u s congress began liberalizing pricing entry and exit in the transportation financial energy and communications industries during the mid 1970s but while some smaller industries such as intercity bus transportation and air cargo have been fully deregulated during that time the only major american industries fully deregulated to date are airlines and motor carriers as to the pace of industry adjustment consider airlines economic deregulation of the airline industry began in 1974 when the civil aeronautics board first encouraged experiments with discount fares it was completed in 1983 when all regulations on fares entry and exit were eliminated yet more than 20 years after the deregulatory process began the airline industry continues to shed inefficiencies that accumulated over decades of regulation and to find new ways to market their service indeed the airlines latest marketing innovation selling discount fares on the internet would be illegal if fares were still regulated it is not surprising that deregulated or partially deregulated industries are slow to achieve maximum efficiency when regulatory restrictions on pricing operations and entry especially from new firms have been enforced for decades managers and employees of regulated firms settle into patterns of inefficient production and missed opportunities for technological advance and entry into new markets deregulation frees an industry from the state s control over prices entry and exit although of course firms are still subject to antitrust laws and safety regulations after deregulation some costs usually fall in short order but it takes

the hazards of small firms in southern africa small enterprises are a ubiquitous feature of the economies of many developing countries this study is the first to examine the duration of their survival using economic theory and modern econometric techniques using data sets from surveys conducted in four southern african countries i estimate a proportional hazards model describing the closure rates of a sample of approximately 21 000 firms there is an inverse relationship between enterprise growth rates and the closure hazard the sector where it operates influences the hazard as does its location in some countries female headed firms are at a survival disadvantage compared to their male counterparts

the cost of institutional equity trades presented are an overview of the findings from the recent literature on the cost of u s equity trades for institutional investors and new evidence on trading costs from a large sample of institutional trades the findings discussed have important implications for policymakers and investors implicit trading costs are economically significant equity trading costs vary considerably and vary systematically with trade difficulty and order placement strategy and whether a trade price represents best execution depends on detailed data for the trade s entire order submission process especially information on pretrade decision variables such as the trading horizon

estimation risk in portfolio selection the mean variance model versus the mean absolute deviation model konno and yamazaki konno h k yamazaki 1992 mean absolute deviation portfolio optimization model and its applications to tokyo stock market management sci 39 519 531 propose the mean absolute deviation mad model as an alternative to the mean variance mv model they claim it retains all the positive features of the mv model saves the investor computing time and does not require the covariance matrix this paper shows that ignoring the covariance matrix results in greater estimation risk that outweighs the benefits in both models estimation error is more severe in small samples small observations relative to the number of assets and for investors with high risk tolerance the mv model s lower estimation risk is most striking in small samples and for investors with a low risk tolerance