energy disruptions interfirm price effects and the aggregate economy in an economy with many imperfect competitors monopolistic competition firms that pass through higher oil prices during a disruption will affect the demand for firms in other industries firms that charge higher prices for their final product will include the effect on their own final product in their private decisions but will exclude the effect on the final products of other firms although a pecuniary externality these actions will reduce society s welfare unlike the case of a perfectly competitive market this situation creates a societal risk that is much wider than an externality in any single market policy interest shifts from one of punishing persian gulf oil producers to one of cushioning an industrialized economy from sudden disruptions caused by political and military conflicts although the value of reducing oil use depends upon a number of unknown parameters with wide distributions a representative numerical example suggests that it may approach 5 per barrel

price adjustment in long term contracts the case of coal in two recent papers i examined the effects of relationship specific investment on the duration of contracts negotiated between electric utilities and coal suppliers that work demonstrated that when relationshipspecific investment is important for a cost minimizing supply relationship contracts are frequently utilized that specify ex ante the terms and conditions of trade over many future years in this article i examine the characteristics of the price adjustment provisions specified in these long term coal contracts i utilize a sample of about 250 coal contracts to analyze the structure of formal price adjustment provisions in coal contracts in order to determine the factors that affect initial negotiated contract prices and to examine actual transaction price behavior over time there has been much recent theoretical work as well as some related empirical work that has focused on the benefits of long term contracts when relationship specific investments are important 2 there has also been some theoretical work that focuses on the contractual arrangements that may be chosen to mitigate opportunism problems and guard against

exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price an application on path analysis and bvar tvp model abstract as the uncertainty of oil price increases impacts of the influential factors on oil price vary over time it is of great importance to explore the core factors and its time varying influence on oil price in view of this based on the path analysis model this paper obtains the core factors builds an oil price system var model which uses demand supply price and inventory as endogenous variables and china s net imports as well as dollar index as exogenous variables then we set up a bvar tvp time varying parameter model to analyze dynamic impacts of core factors on oil price the results show that 1 oil prices became more sensitive to oil supply changes and the influence delays became shorter 2 the impact of oil inventories on oil prices with a time lag of two quarters but has a downward trend 3 the impact of oil consumption on oil prices with a time lag of two quarters and this effect is increasingly greater 4 the us dollar index is always the important factor of oil price and its control power increases gradually and the financial crisis occurred in 2008 further strengthens the influence of us dollar

economic analysis of upgrading aging residential buildings in china based on dynamic energy consumption and energy price in a market economy abstract this article employed a standard lcc to conduct economic analysis of upgrading the aging residential buildings in china according to the current situation an interest rate of 6 an inflation rate of 3 an increase rate of annual energy savings of 2 and an increase rate of electricity price of 2 were assumed in the method the results indicated that only relying on gradually increasing electricity price and governments subsidies was not enough after detailed analysis of the energy saving measures and the distribution of all benefits from building energy retrofit it was found that actually only 1 3 of original cost was spent only for energy savings the second 1 3 for both energy savings and good facade appearance and occupants should share the last 1 3 because even if without energy retrofit they would have to pay the part too the corresponding results proved that the first 1 3 of investment cost could be drawn back within the residue life cycle and so the investment could be accepted in a sheer market economy in the end a model about distribution of investment cost of and benefits was proposed to adapt the market economy to overcome the financial problems in china

oil price shocks and the macroeconomy this paper examines the impact of oil price shocks and attempts to explain why the rise in oil prices up to 2008 had little impact on the world economy it makes three main arguments first that oil prices have never been as important as is popularly thought second that the most important route through which oil prices affect output is monetary policy when oil prices pass through to core inflation monetary authorities raise interest rates slowing growth based on the second argument the third argument is that high oil prices have not reduced growth in recent years because they no longer pass through to core inflation so the monetary tightening previously seen in response to high oil prices is absent it also argues that oil prices had little impact on the global recession of 20089

the british model in britain failing slowly in 1990 britain reorganised its electricity industry to run on competitive lines the british reforms are widely regarded as successful and the model used provides the basis for reforms of electricity industries worldwide the main reason for this perception of success is major reductions in the real price of electricity with no reduction in service quality this paper examines whether the reputation of the british reforms is justified it concludes that the reputation is not justified and that serious fundamental problems are beginning to emerge the central question is have the british reforms resulted in the creation of efficient wholesale and retail markets on this criterion the reforms have failed the wholesale market is dominated by obscure long term contracts privileged access to the market and self dealing within integrated generator retailers leaving the spot markets with minimal liquidity and unreliable prices the failure to develop an efficient wholesale market places the onus on consumers to impose competitive forces on electricity companies by switching regularly small consumers will not do this and they are paying too much for their power for the future there is a serious risk that the electricity industry will become a weakly regulated oligopoly with a veneer of competition

the outlook for us oil dependence abstract oil dependence is defined as a dynamic problem of short and long run market power the potential monopoly power of an oil cartel depends on its market share and the elasticities of oil supply and demand while the economic vulnerability of oil consuming states depends most directly on the quantity of oil imported and the oil cost share of gross domestic product gdp of these factors only the market share of the organization of petroleum exporting countries opec cartel and the rate of growth of world oil demand are clearly different than they were 25 years ago opec still holds the majority of world oil and in the future will regain market share a hypothetical 2 year supply reduction in 2005 2006 similar in size to those of 1973 1974 or 1979 1980 illustrates the potential benefits to opec and harm to the us economy of a future oil price shock opec s revenues are estimated to increase by roughly 0 7 trillion while the us economy loses about 0 5 trillion strategic petroleum reserves seem ineffective against a determined multi year supply curtailment increasing the market s price responsiveness by improving the technologies of oil supply and oil demand can greatly reduce the costs of oil dependence each element of this interpretation of the oil dependence problem is well supported by previous studies this paper s contribution is to unite these elements into a coherent explanation and to point out the enormously important implications for energy policy

a neglected welfare cost of monopoly and most other product market distortions abstract a neglected effect of monopoly is the distortion in the quantity of resources supplied monopoly not only affects the economy s output mix it also results in factor prices that are below social marginal value products this latter distortion is shown to be quantitatively important when other policies such as taxes on labor earnings also depress factor prices under plausible conditions the welfare cost due to this distortion of monopoly is shown to be between five and fifteen times larger than the more familiar harberger triangle output mix distortion of monopoly it is suggested that the resource supply effects of many other policies are similarly likely to be more important than their commonly evaluated output market effects

the reform of the natural gas industry in the pr of china abstract in light of china s energy revolution reform of the natural gas industry and the acceleration of the natural gas sector development are of strategic significance to ensure china s energy security to optimise the energy consumption structure and to address environmental pollution in recent years the chinese government has introduced numerous policies and developmental plans to speed up natural gas sector reform which have led to considerable progress however china s natural gas industry and reform still encounter many problems and challenges the purpose of this study is to investigate the reform of the natural gas industry in china first the current situation of china s natural gas industry is outlined next four aspects of natural gas industry reform are systematically reviewed natural gas administrative system reform industry structure reform pricing mechanism reform and tax and fee system reform third the major problems and challenges facing further reform of the natural gas industry are analysed in depth finally this study proposes policies and suggestions for china s natural gas sector in the coming future

identification problems in granger causality tests based on the net oil price increase the net oil price increase is one of the most popular models used to study the relationship between changes in the price of oil and macroeconomic activity the model postulates that an increase in the price of oil has negative consequences for the economy if the new price exceeds the maximum price observed over a reference period of arbitrary length the relationship between the net oil price increase and other economic variables is often evaluated with granger causality tests the results of which are sensitive to the choice of the reference period if the reference price is chosen to best fit the data it becomes an unidentified nuisance parameter under the null hypothesis causing standard tests to over reject the null this article proposes a simple method to obtain correct critical values using us data for the period 1954 to 2012 it is found that these corrected critical values reduce but do not eliminate support for the proposition that the net oil price increase granger causes real usgdp growth

the national and international impacts of coal to gas switching in the chinese power sector abstract we evaluate the national and international impacts on energy consumption and production trade and economic activity of chinese coal to gas switching in the electric power sector we find that assumptions about growth rates in electricity generation from renewables are the key determinant in evaluating the economic consequences for coal to gas switching in china the ability to supplement natural gas generation with renewables leads to smaller reductions in chinese and global economic activity than the alternatives

economic analysis of energy saving renovation measures for urban existing residential buildings in china based on thermal simulation and site investigation abstract energy saving renovations of existing residential buildings have proven to be very helpful in alleviating the pressure of energy shortages and co 2 emission but an economic analysis of the measures by using a life cycle cost lcc method is very important and necessary to determine whether to implement them or not based on thermal simulation and site investigation the paper uses one urban existing residential building in hangzhou city of china as the subject building and analyzes the economic benefits from the energy saving renovation measures through the lcc method the findings clearly show that the investigation of the factual electricity consumption of the subject building is very important to predict accurately the energy saving effects and financial benefits of the measures for the building because of the great discrepancy between in fact and in thermal simulation of the heating and cool loads and the too cheap electricity price may hamper the development of energy saving implementations in residential sector in china

scenario analysis on co2 emissions reduction potential in china s electricity sector abstract with the approach of the year 2012 a new round of international negotiations has energized the entire climate change community with this analyses on sector based emissions reduction and mitigation options will provide the necessary information to form the debate in order to assess the co2 emissions reduction potential of china s electricity sector this research employs three scenarios based on the long range energy alternative planning system leap model to simulate the different development paths in this sector the baseline scenario the current policy scenario and the new policy scenario seek to gradually increase the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement results imply that energy consumption and co2 emission in china s electricity sector will rise rapidly in all scenarios until 2030 triple or quadruple the 2000 level however through structural adjustment in china s electricity sector and through implementing technical mitigation measures various degrees of abatement can be achieved these reductions range from 85 to 350 million tons co2 per year figures that correspond to different degrees of cost and investment demand side management and circulating fluidized bed combustion cfbc ranked in order are employed prior to use to realize emissions reduction followed by supercritical plants and the renovation of conventional thermal power plants in the long term nuclear and hydropower will play the dominant role in contributing to emissions reduction it is also suggested that a self restraint reduction commitment should be employed to help contribute to the reduction of emission intensity an avenue that is more practical for china in light of its current development phase setting the year 2000 as the base year the intensity reduction target could possibly range from 4 2 to 19 4 dependent on the implementation effectiveness of various mitigation options

the reform of electricity power sector in the pr of china deregulation was launched as a concept in the united states more than a decade ago the european union commission has also formally announced that electric deregulation must be completed by the end of 2005 deregulation or reform has already been a popular topic on the electricity power sector this paper will discuss the restructuring and regulatory reforms in the pr china s power sector it begins with a discussion of the characteristics of electricity reform or deregulation in other countries including the us the united kingdom and so on it will be followed by the industry structure and regulatory framework that characterized china s power industry during the latter part of the 20th century and the history of china s reform to restructure the power industry to competitive suppliers of generating services in recent years it discusses the role of the state power corporation in the reform and gives a detailed description of the latest electricity reform in the year 2002 the paper concludes with some thoughts regarding future challenges and trends on the reform for china s power sector

why did the energy intensity fall in china s industrial sector in the 1990s the relative importance of structural change and intensity change there have been a variety of studies investigating the relative importance of structural change and real intensity change to the change in china s energy consumption in the 1980s however no detailed analysis to date has been done to examine whether or not the increased energy efficiency trend in the 1980s still prevailed in the 1990s this article has filled this gap by investigating the change in energy consumption in china s industrial sector in the 1990s based on the data sets of value added and end use energy consumption for the 29 industrial subsectors and using the newly proposed decomposition method of giving no residual our results clearly show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline in industrial energy use in the 1990s was the decline in real energy intensity indicating that the trend of real energy intensity declines in the 1980s at the 2 digit level was still maintained in the 1990s this conclusion still holds even if we lower the growth rate dramatically in line with the belief that the growth rate of china s gdp may be overestimated

a review of residential tiered electricity pricing in china abstract at present the unformed market oriented pricing mechanism has become a great challenge faced by china s electricity pricing and the unreasonable electricity pricing caused by cross subsidization has become increasingly serious with the economic development and energy shortage tiered electricity price tep which was developed and used since 1970s was introduced into china as a new electricity pricing method for residential electricity consumption the tep can also improve the tariffs the behaviors and the efficiency of residential electricity consumption in this study we use the fundamental theory of the electricity economics to analyze the pricing methods and the forms of china s power market with the reform of electric power industry we also point out the characteristics of residential tiered electricity pricing in china which is also compared with other countries such as the united states and japan the main factors influencing the residential tiered electricity pricing design are discussed in this paper from the perspectives of users the electric power enterprise and government regulation then we point out the main problems of china s existing tiered electricity pricing including inadequate level of public awareness and acceptance unreasonable tiered and electricity price standard insufficient reflection in regional differences less combination with other electricity pricing forms and low level of smart meter application

the impact of china s electricity price deregulation on coal and power industries two stage game modeling abstract the regulated price mechanism in china s power industry has attracted much criticism because of its incapability to optimize the allocation of resources to build an open orderly competitive and complete power market system the chinese government launched an unprecedented marketization reform in 2015 to deregulate the electricity price this paper examines the impact of electricity price deregulation at the industry level we first construct two stage dynamic game models to portrait the interaction between the coal and coal fired power industries using the models we compare analytically the equilibriums with and without electricity price regulation concerning electricity price electricity generation coal price and coal production the theoretical analyses find three regulated electricity price intervals that differentiate the reform impacts afterward we collect empirical data to estimate the model parameters the influences on the two industries in terms of market outcome and industrial profitability are simulated our results suggest that the current regulated electricity price falls within the medium interval which means deregulation will result in higher electricity price but lower coal price less coal production and less electricity generation the robustness analyses show that our results hold with respect to the electricity generation efficiency and price sensitivity of electricity demand

the effects of electricity reforms on productivity and efficiency of china s fossil fired power plants an empirical analysis abstract this paper investigates the effects of electricity reforms on productivity and efficiency of china s generation plants based on the third industrial census data and the first economic census data partial factor productivity pfp analysis indicates that the productivity improvements in labor and capital inputs associated with the reforms are approximately 26 and 45 respectively the effect of the reforms on fuel expense is weakly significant but there is evidence of significant productivity improvement in fuel usage further total factor productivity tfp analysis shows that the efficiency gain from the reforms is still significant when the substitution effect of labor and capital inputs are considered though the magnitude is much lower than that of the pfp analysis the effect of the reforms on technical efficiency becomes weakly significant when fuel expense is further included in tfp analysis but a significant positive effect is expected if fuel input is measured in physical quantity

an analysis on the short term sectoral competitiveness impact of carbon tax in china abstract market based instruments particularly carbon tax have recently drawn the attention of chinese government by their cost effective contribution to the achievement of china s climate targets most of the recent policy proposals have focused on its long term impact however particularly for policy makers both long term and short term effects of carbon tax would be necessary when determining tax rates we provided a detailed analysis of short term impacts of carbon tax on sectoral competitiveness in this paper we divided china s economy into 36 sectors based on its 2007 input output table in order to examine the ratio of carbon tax added costs to sector gdp we were thus able to determine the impact level of a carbon tax on each sector we then divided the sectoral trade impact into domestic competitiveness with regards to foreign imported products and international competitiveness external to the chinese domestic market we found that a high tax level 100 yuan t co2 may necessitate compensatory measures to certain highly affected industries and that a low tax rate 10 yuan t co2 would generate few competitiveness problems for all industries and may therefore be considered as an appropriate starting point

role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities an svar approach to the malaysian economy and monetary responses abstract this study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on malaysian macroeconomic activities and monetary responses we use a structural var svar model based on monthly data over the period 1986 2009 the egarch model estimates show an important asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on the conditional oil price volatility dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the svar model show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on malaysian industrial production we also find that levels of consumer price index cpi decline with a positive shock to oil price uncertainty this is the result of negative demand shock due to the postponement of consumption of big ticket items by individuals households and other sectors of the economy we also found that the malaysian central bank adopts an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price uncertainty variance decomposition analysis reconfirms that volatility in the oil price is the second most important factor to explain the variance of industrial production after its own shocks these results shed some light on how the central bank of malaysia can use controlling mechanisms to stabilize aggregate output and price level

on the dynamic effects of oil price shocks a study using industry level data abstract this paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on demand and supply in various industries the impulse responses of identified var models indicate that for industries that have a large cost share of oil such as petroleum refinery and industrial chemicals oil price shocks mainly reduce supply in contrast for many other industries with the automobile industry being a particularly important example oil price shocks mainly reduce demand the paper suggests that oil price shocks influence economic activities beyond that explained by direct input cost effects possibly by delaying purchasing decisions of durable goods

contract duration and relationship specific investments empirical evidence from coal markets this paper examines the importance of specific relationship investments in determining the duration of coal contracts negotiated between coal suppliers and electric utilities data for 277 coal contracts are used to perform the analysis the results provide strong support for the view that buyers and sellers make longer commitments to the terms of future trade at the contract execution stage and rely less on repeated bargaining when relationship specific investments are more important

analysis of the market penetration of clean coal technologies and its impacts in china s electricity sector abstract this paper discusses policy instruments for promoting the market penetration of clean coal technologies ccts into china s electricity sector and the evaluation of corresponding effects based on the reality that coal will remain the predominant fuel to generate electricity and conventional pulverized coal boiler power plants have serious impacts on environment degradation development of clean coal technologies could be one alternative to meet china s fast growing demand of electricity as well as protect the already fragile environment a multi period market equilibrium model is applied and an electricity model of china is established to forecast changes in the electricity system up to 2030s three policy instruments so 2 emission charge co 2 emission charge and implementing subsidies are considered in this research the results show that all instruments cause a significant shift in china s electricity structure promote ccts competitiveness and lead china to gain great benefit in both resource saving and environment improvement since resource security and environment degradation are becoming primary concerns in china policies that could help to gain generations market share of advanced coal based technologies such as ccts is suitable for the current situation of china s electricity sector

substitution possibilities and determinants of energy intensity for china abstract this paper measures technological change factor demand and inter factor and inter fuel substitutability measures for china we use individual fuel price data and a two stage approach to estimate total factor cost functions and fuel share equations both inter factor and inter fuel substitution elasticities are calculated and the change in energy intensity is decomposed into its driving forces the results suggest that energy is substitutable for capital regionally and for labor nationally capital substitutes for energy more easily than labor does energy intensity changes vary by region but the major drivers seem to be budget effect and the adoption of energy intensive technologies which might be embodied in high level energy using exports and sectors capital investment and even old technique and equipment imports whether the trend in rising energy intensity continues will be significant for china and the rest of the world

electricity pricing in a partial reformed plan system the case of china despite three decades of reform the electric power industry in china is still organised by a partial reformed plan system where the investment to build capacity has been liberalised but the prices and the production remain controlled by the state this paper examines the pricing behaviour of the power supply in china where the state attempts to balance the interest between the public and the electric power industry the empirical evidence shows that the cost factors are critical to the electricity pricing in china and that the bargaining mechanism which sets the plan price allows the power producers to face a soft budget constraint on their own costs

deregulation and growth in china s energy sector a review of recent development dramatic changes have taken place in china s energy sector over the past decade these changes have important implications for energy consumption trade production and regulatory policies in china and beyond the objective of this paper is to review some of the key issues associated with deregulation and growth in china s energy sector specifically the paper presents a survey of recent reforms in this sector it also analyses the impact of deregulation on energy policy ownership foreign investment and trade and sheds some lights on the sources of growth in china s energy sector

oil and stock market volatility a multivariate stochastic volatility perspective abstract this paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction it offers four major findings first the stock and oil futures prices are inter related their correlation follows a time varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile second conditioned on the past information the volatility in each market is very persistent i e it varies in a predictable manner third there is inter market dependence in volatility innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market in other words conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets the past volatility of the stock oil futures market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures stock market finally the model produces more accurate value at risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry

the integration of major fuel source markets in china evidence from panel cointegration tests abstract the paper tests for energy price co movement in china over the new regime as part of a strategy to test for the existence of a national energy market panel cointegration test statistics suggest that not all energy commodities are spatially homogenous in prices and the processes of energy price cointegration are different over time and over groups of fuels the statistics demonstrate china s gradual spatially partial and idiosyncratic energy reform process coal and electricity price series have co moved since 2003 while the national panel cointegration test statistics suggest that gasoline and diesel price series have co moved since 1997 regional panel tests also show that there are apparently differences in the emergence of energy price co movement this suggests that regional energy markets have emerged in china one of the important lessons of the research is that an energy market has to some extent already emerged in china and as a consequence energy prices are much less distorted than previously if correct this fact is of major global significance both in terms of future environmental effects and future trade and investment negotiations as china is seen internationally as a market driven economy

the relationship between oil price shocks and china s macro economy an empirical analysis china postdoctoral science foundation 20090460751 ministry of education of the people s republic of china 09yjc790167 09yja820074 national social science funds 09zd050 08ajy031

reform without losers an interpretation of china s dual track approach to transition this paper develops a simple model to analyze the dual track approach to market liberalization as a mechanism for implementing efficient pareto improving economic reform that is reform achieving efficiency without creating losers the approach based on the continued enforcement of the existing plan while simultaneously liberalizing the market can be understood as a method for making implicit lump sum transfers to compensate potential losers of the reform the model highlights the critical roles of enforcement of the plan for achieving pareto improvement and full liberalization of the market track for achieving efficiency we examine how the dual track approach has worked in product and labor market liberalization in china

reform of china s electric power industry challenges facing the government abstract china s electrical power industry requires substantial reform if the country s economic growth is to be sustained the 1997 electricity law the creation of a state power company and the abolition of the ministry of electric power are important first steps on the path of reform but it seems that a clear plan is lacking objectives of the reform should include increasing the capacity to deliver power constraining the costs of the power industry increasing end user efficiency and minimising environmental damage efforts should be directed at restructuring the industry in such a way that fair competition may be introduced at least in power generation and at establishing a viable regulatory agency both tasks have the potential to be thwarted by a range of vested interests at different levels of government and industry

energy policies for managing china s carbon emission abstract the well documented close relationship between economic growth and energy use indicates that the emergence of a country as an economic power cannot occur without increased in energy use but just as the scale of china s rise as an economic power has no clear parallel in history its conflict between economic growth and energy use has also shattered all precedents this planet s future energy scenario hinges on the ability of this decoupling the question this policy forum addressed is how to find the optimum way to accomplish this decoupling through government directive government centered command and control approaches or cac or market forces market based instruments or mbi it concludes that market rather than government can decide the optimum way to decouple china s economic growth from energy use facilitating this decoupling driven by market force requires getting the prices right for energy

an imbalanced development of coal and electricity industries in china china s coal and electricity industries have a strong reliance on each other however because of excessive invasion of government it is difficult for these two industries to form a stable reasonable and transaction cost saving relationships but long run disputes and quarrels this paper discusses the pricing policies and transaction relationship between these two industries from the historical perspective it begins with the discussion of coal coal market has become competitive since 1980 due to the system of dual track approach but coal sold to electricity was still tightly controlled by government guided pricing then the paper examines electricity investment and tariff reform unlike coal entry to electricity generation sector was gradually relaxed but generation and retailing tariffs are still strictly regulated as energy demand and prices soared after 2002 coal and electricity enterprises are all unsatisfied with the rule of price setting of coal sold to electricity industry this paper concludes that the deliberate low coal price policy does protect electricity industry from fuel cost fluctuation but harm coal industry allocative and productive efficiency are difficult to achieve in the long run

historical decomposition of aggregate demand and supply shocks in a small macro model we estimate and analyze the impact of multiple aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks in a small macroeconomic model of the economy the analysis serves two purposes first we assess the relative importance of the various shocks in explaining the path of output over the past three decades second we conduct counterfactual policy experiments which show the effects of alternative policies on key macro variables we find that using the monetary policy tool reserves or the base such that constant money growth occurs would have produced superior economic results fluctuations in macroeconomic activity are generally explained in terms of shocks to aggregate demand and supply many theoretical models suggest a role for both types of shocks demand shocks including but not limited to policy innovations are typically thought to have real effects in the short to medium run but not in the long run supply shocks including resource and technology shocks have effects in both the short and long runs most empirical studies find important effects of both aggregate demand and supply shocks although demand and supply shocks are important conceptually in applied work the nature of the identified shocks has differed some studies identify only one generic shock to aggregate

on grid electricity tariffs in china development reform and prospects abstract with the introduction of market oriented measures in china s power sector in the mid 1980s electricity sale prices to the grid companies on grid electricity tariffs became the focus of the energy industry thus affecting all related stakeholders including fuel suppliers power generators and end use consumers a number of changes have gradually been undertaken in terms of electricity tariff settings and their implementation to address specific requirements of the expansion of the power industry at each stage of its development on grid electricity tariffs had been used as a key lever to attract investment in power generation at an early stage of reform and then to encourage competition in the power industry in response to the rising concerns about environmental protection and the promotion of clean energy utilisation tariffs have progressively been developed for renewable electricity generation which has contributed to massive expansion of the renewable power industry in china this paper reviews key milestones of the development of on grid electricity tariffs in china examines the tariff setting mechanisms of coal fired power plants and renewable power generation analyses the factors associated with the adjustments of the tariff levels and discusses the options for further reform and more effective electricity pricing

empirical modelling of the aggregation error in the representative consumer model this paper examines different approaches to modelling the aggregation error associated with the representative consumer model each approach is based on an analytical framework intended for modelling aggregate time series data on quantities and prices with potential additional measures of income distribution simple functions that track aggregation error over time are found to perform better than more complex and theoretically sophisticated models an explanation is given based on typical time series characteristics of economic data

oil price fluctuations and u s dollar exchange rates adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the u s dollar usd against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008 our long run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil exchange rate relationship increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the usd against net oil exporter currencies such as canada mexico and russia on the other hand the currencies of oil importers such as japan depreciate relative to the usd when the real oil price goes up

electricity regulation and electricity market reforms in china the electricity industry of china has been in a process of reforms since the 1980s this paper gives a review on the three main stages of reforms in china so as to trace out key features of various reform measures including those for power investment financing the separation between government and power enterprises and the division between power generation firms and power grids the findings suggest that further regulatory change in china s electricity market reform is necessary when integration of the electricity markets and increased competition are paving the way ahead for a market oriented structure prospective electricity regulation in the form of a strong legal system and effective institutions that protect market competition and promote appropriate incentives for efficiency are suggested in the paper

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship reply abstract james hamilton argues that oil price changes are still important for the macroeconomy and that using a filter which screens out drops and measures increases relative to a reference level wellrepresents the effects of price changes when they are choppy while this measure outperforms the oil price transformations considered in my paper much of its predictive power is coming from the pre 1986 and pre 1973 part of the sample with less than 10 years of choppy data finding the best oil price transformation will likely require analysis with cross sectional components ruling out effects from oil price decreases is also probably counterproductive to uncovering structure

gradual reforms and the emergence of energy market in china evidence from tests for convergence of energy prices this study investigates the emergence of energy markets by testing for convergence of energy prices with a new dataset on energy spot prices in 35 major cities in china both descriptive statistics and unit root are employed to test the convergence of energy prices for each of four fuel price series the whole study period is divided into two sub periods in order to reconcile the gradual energy reforms the results show the steady improvement in energy market performance in china especially during the second sub period which suggests that the market appears to be playing an increasing role in determining energy prices while panel unit root tests show energy markets are integrated in china as a whole city by city univariate unit root tests suggest that there are still many regional energy markets probably because energy reserves especially coal vary widely across regions since china s energy economy is gradually moving towards market oriented mechanisms the existing literature may become obsolete soon

what can survey forecasts tell us about information rigidities a lot we derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers firms central bankers and professional forecasters we document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information the dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are consistent with the predictions of models with information rigidities the conditional responses of forecast errors and disagreement among agents can also be used to differentiate between some of the most prominent models of information rigidities

the emergence and evolution of regional convergence clusters in china s energy markets employing the new regression tests for convergence club convergence and clustering proposed by phillips and sul 2007 this paper models and analyses the behaviour of china s energy sectors energy market convergence clusters are identified using new price data and their regional spatial distributions are mapped for four major fuel types coal gasoline diesel and electricity the findings are as follows i as yet there are no fully integrated national energy markets in china as more than one convergence cluster is identified for all four fuels ii some regional energy markets can be regarded as quite mature as evidenced by the existence of some highly concentrated convergence clusters connected geographically iii some regional markets remain in a state of transition as witnessed by convergence clusters that are scattered geographically and that are growing in membership iv it seems that there is more regional based integration for coal and electricity than for gasoline and diesel as more convergent clusters were identified for coal and electricity than for gasoline and diesel and v overall china still appears to be in the process of energy market integration as demonstrated by the number and evolution of convergence clusters over time

market driven coal prices and state administered electricity prices in china this paper analyzes how the chinese government adjusts electricity prices for both industrial and residential users in response to changes in coal prices using an asymmetric error correction model our results show that there is a long term relation between the coal price and electricity prices but the relationship is weak especially for residential pricing in the short run we find electricity prices are adjusting faster upwards than downwards price adjustment towards long run equilibrium is faster for residential users upwards than downwards on the other hand we find no evidence of asymmetric equilibrium adjustment in the electricity price for industrial use the weak long term relationship reflects the rigidity in electricity pricing and government s reluctance to subject end users to fluctuations of raw materials cost shifts

china s large scale power shortages of 2004 and 2011 after the electricity market reforms of 2002 explanations and differences abstract since the electricity market reforms of 2002 two large scale power shortages one occurring in 2004 and one in 2011 exerted a tremendous impact on the economic development of china and also gave rise to a fierce discussion regarding electricity system reforms in this paper the background and the influence scale of the two power shortages are described second reasons for these two large scale power shortages are analyzed from the perspectives of power generation power consumption and coordination of power sources and grid network construction investments characteristics of these two large scale power shortages are then summarized by comparatively analyzing the performance and the formation of the reasons behind these two large scale power shortages finally some effective measures that take into account the current status of electricity market reforms in china are suggested this paper concludes that to eliminate power shortages in china both the supply and the demand should be considered and these considerations should be accompanied by supervisory policies and incentive mechanisms

what goes up recent trends in china s energy consumption since 1996 china s energy output has dropped by 17 while primary energy use has fallen by 4 driven almost entirely by shrinking output from coal mines and declining direct use since china is the world s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases it is important to understand the sources of this apparent transformation and whether it portends a permanent change in patterns of energy use this remarkable reversal of the long term expansion of energy use has occurred even as the economy has continued to grow albeit more slowly than in the early 1990s generation of electric power has risen implying a steep fall in end uses particularly in industry available information points to a variety of forces contributing to this phenomenon including rapid improvements in coal quality structural changes in industry shutdowns of factories in both the state owned and non state segments of the economy improvements in end use efficiency and greater use of gas and electricity in households a combination of slowing economic growth industrial restructuring broader economic system reforms and environmental and energy efficiency policies has apparently led to at least a temporary decline in and perhaps a long term reduction in the growth of energy use and therefore greenhouse gas emissions

theoretical ambiguity and the weight of historical heritage a comparative study of the british and norwegian electricity liberalisation britain and norway have been european pioneers in liberalising their electricity systems but they have done so in very different ways both attempted to create a system in which the potentially competitive activities generation and supply to final consumers were opened up to market forces however britain has liberalised by privatisation leaving generation largely concentrated in a few companies norway has maintained a dominant public ownership but has sought to create a competitive environment through a decentralised production structure the british capitalist and the norwegian structuralist approaches both exhibit clear market oriented features but with the dynamics placed respectively on the ownership side and on decentralised competition yet the two models are also reflections of two historical heritages the differences in political style help to explain the more dramatic and controversial character of the british reform as compared to the rather pragmatic norwegian process the difference between the two reform models also has a bearing on their strengths and weaknesses the norwegian model with its small scale municipal orientation is almost ideal for a competitive free trade market in a closed economy but problematic in a larger international competitive context for the british model the concentration and advanced capitalist ownership strategies create regulatory dilemmas such as the current wave of takeovers that are not easily handled

the impact of oil price shocks evidence from the industries of six oecd countries most of the studies about the macroeconomic consequences of oil price shocks have been focused on us aggregate data in contrast to these studies this paper empirically assesses the dynamic effect of oil price shocks on the output of the main manufacturing industries in six oecd countries the pattern of responses to an oil price shock by industrial output is diverse across the four european monetary union emu countries under consideration france germany italy and spain but broadly similar in the uk and the us moreover evidence on cross industry heterogeneity of oil shock effects within the emu countries is also reported

this is what happened to the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter when one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions

how sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices abstract there is growing evidence that the primary effect of energy price shocks on the u s economy involves a reduction in consumer spending we quantify the direct effect on real consumption of unanticipated changes in discretionary income shifts in precautionary savings and changes in the operating cost of energy using durables the possibility of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price shocks is also considered we demonstrate that linear models are consistent with the symmetric behavior of real consumption in 1979 when energy prices increased sharply and in 1986 when they fell sharply it is shown that historically energy price shocks have been an important factor in explaining u s real consumption growth but by no means the dominant factor

application of residual modification approach in seasonal arima for electricity demand forecasting a case study of china abstract electricity demand forecasting could prove to be a useful policy tool for decision makers thus accurate forecasting of electricity demand is valuable in allowing both power generators and consumers to make their plans although a seasonal arima model is widely used in electricity demand analysis and is a high precision approach for seasonal data forecasting errors are unavoidable in the forecasting process consequently a significant research goal is to further improve forecasting precision to help people in the electricity sectors make more sensible decisions this study proposes residual modification models to improve the precision of seasonal arima for electricity demand forecasting in this study pso optimal fourier method seasonal arima model and combined models of pso optimal fourier method with seasonal arima are applied in the northwest electricity grid of china to correct the forecasting results of seasonal arima the modification models forecasting of the electricity demand appears to be more workable than that of the single seasonal arima the results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the three residual modification models is higher than the single seasonal arima model and that the combined model is the most satisfactory of the three models

asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices a threshold var approach abstract we document asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy price shocks using a threshold vector autoregressive model estimated with bayesian methods on u s data with high and low real energy inflation regimes positive energy price shocks have a greater negative effect on consumption compared with the increase in consumption that arises from negative energy price shocks for large shocks the cumulative consumption responses are three to five times greater for positive than negative shocks in disaggregated spending data the asymmetric responses are strongest for durable goods consumption but asymmetries are also present in the responses of nondurables and services consumption

trade liberalization and the allocation over domestic and foreign supplies a case study for spanish manufacturing the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether spain s accession to the european union in 1986 caused a structural break in the allocation of total supplies of manufactures over domestic and foreign supplies to that end the homogeneity constrained almost ideal demand system is used to specify the long run equilibrium relationships between the shares in total supplies and total real demand and relative prices and a first order error correction mechanism in order to describe the adjustment process to equilibrium using a formal statistical test it turns out that a structural break actually occurred and led to a rather sharp decrease in the share of spain and an increase in the shares of the other members of the european union

a critical review of china s rapidly developing renewable energy and energy efficiency policies renewable energy and energy efficiency reee policies have far reaching implications for energy security climate change economic competitiveness pollution and human livelihood for these reasons reee has become a national priority for the chinese government particularly since 2005 this paper aims to critically review china s reee policies in six sectors electricity industry transportation buildings and local government in addition to examining the progress china has made in the development and implementation of reee policies this review also identifies limitations and room for improvement finally five policy recommendations are presented

the economic effects of energy price shocks large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the u s economy since the 1970s turmoil in the middle east rising energy prices in the u s and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance this paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate what are energy price shocks and where do they come from how responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices how do consumers expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks how do energy price shocks affect u s real output inflation and stock prices why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions why has there been a surge in the price of oil in recent years why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and if so why as the paper demonstrates it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets when answering these questions

economic impact of oil price shocks on the turkish economy in the coming decades a dynamic cge analysis as a small open economy turkey depends on both imported oil and natural gas importing almost two thirds of its primary energy demand this paper analyzes the economic effects of oil price shocks for turkey as a small open oil and gas importing country to analyze the potential long term effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables of interest including gdp consumer price inflation indirect tax revenues trade balance and carbon emissions we developed turgem d a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model for the turkish economy using turgem d we analyzed the impact of oil price shocks under three distinct scenarios reference high and low oil prices the simulation results show that these oil prices have very significant effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions in the turkish economy

relationship between oil prices interest rate and unemployment evidence from an emerging market abstract while the interrelation between oil price changes economic activity and employment is an important issue that has been studied mainly for developed countries little attention has been devoted to inquiries on fluctuations in the price of crude oil and its impact on employment for small open economies adopting an efficiency wage model for equilibrium employment that does not require any assumptions regarding labor supply this paper contributes to the literature by investigating the causality between unemployment and two input prices namely energy crude oil and capital real interest rate in an emerging market turkey for the period 2005 01 2009 08 applying a relatively new technique the toda yamamoto procedure we find that the real price of oil and interest rate improve the forecasts of unemployment in the long run this finding supports the hypothesis that labor is a substitute factor of production for capital and energy

elasticities in aids models in the literature a variety of approaches have been used to calculate demand elasticities in almost ideal demand system aids models of demand it is common to estimate the linear approximate almost ideal demand system la aids instead of the aids when the la aids is estimated all of the previously reported approaches to compute elasticities are theoretically incorrect this paper presents correct formulas for la aids elasticities and illustrates the potential errors from using incorrect computing the almost ideal demand system aids of deaton and muellbauer 1980a b has become popular in recent years anderson and blundell blanciforti and green 1983a b blanciforti green and king chalfant eales and unnevehr fujii khaled and mak fulponi heien and willett murray parsons ray a variety of approaches to computing elasticities has been used and some of the approaches may lead to significant errors this paper clarifies the differences between alternative approaches to estimating demand elasticities in aids models

demand side management in china the context of china s power industry reform abstract the reform of china s power industry has lasted for decades while the implementation of demand side management dsm in china is still in its infancy in this paper we present a comprehensive study of the dsm and demand response dr programs in china under the context of china s power industry reform we first present a brief introduction of the background including the socio economic status and geographical location of china the energy policy of china china s power industry the smart grids and microgrid in china and the reform of china s power industry then based on the introduction of dsm and the analysis of dsm practices in some countries we discuss the development status of dsm and the reform of electricity pricing in china finally the main challenges in five aspects for the future development of dsm programs in china are proposed and discussed these challenges include customer understanding and participation advanced metering infrastructure ami and information and communication technology ict pricing mechanisms and optimal scheduling big data analytics based decision support as well as government regulations and market policies

electricity demand and basic needs empirical evidence from china s households an increasing block tariff ibt has been implemented nationwide in the residential sector in china since 2012 however knowledge about ibt design is still limited particularly how to determine the electricity volume for the first block of an ibt scheme assuming the first block should be set based on some measure of electricity poverty we attempt to model household electricity demand such that the range of basic needs can be established we show that in chinese households there exists a threshold for electricity consumption with respect to income which could be considered a measure of electricity poverty and the threshold differs between rural and urban areas for rural urban families electricity consumption at the level of 7th 5th income decile households can be considered the threshold for basic needs or a measure of electricity poverty since household electricity demand in rural urban areas does not respond to income changes until after 7th 5th income decile accordingly the first ibt block for some provinces e g beijing appears to have been set at a level that is too high over time however given continued rapid growth the ibt will begin to better reflect actual basic needs

analysis of thermal coal pricing and the coal price distortion in china from the perspective of market forces abstract the price of thermal coal has always been the focus of the debate between coal mining industry and electric power industry the thermal coal price is always lower than other same quality coal and this phenomenon of thermal coal price distortion has been existing in china for a long time the distortion coal price can not reflect the external cost and the resource scarcity of coal which could result in environment deteriorating and inefficient resource allocation this paper studied the phenomenon of thermal coal price distortion through economic theoretical modeling and empirical cointegration analysis from the perspective of market forces the results show that thermal coal price is determined by electricity price the prediction elasticity of a electricity enterprise price elasticity of demand of electricity the input prediction elasticity of a electricity enterprise and the price elasticity of supply of thermal coal the main reason of coal price distortion is the unbalance market force of coal industry and thermal coal generation industry the distortion rate of coal price is positively related to the market force of electric power industry and negatively related to the industrial concentration of coal industry

the nature of oil shocks and the global economy abstract this paper identifies the main driving force behind oil price shocks in 1970 2006 by applying a simple identification strategy of supply driven and demand driven price shocks the identification hypothesis states that supply driven oil price shocks have a negative impact on the macroeconomic activity of countries which are net consumers of oil while demand driven oil price shocks do not have negative effects in order to identify global demand driven shocks a weighted aggregate gdp series of countries which are net consumers of oil is constructed over 1970 2006 the key result is that the main driving force behind oil price shocks has changed from supply driven shocks in 1970 1992 to demand driven shocks in 1992 2006

recent oil price shock and tunisian economy abstract the objective of this paper is to study the oil prices macroeconomy relationship by the analysis of the role of subsidy policy the vector autoregression var method was employed to analyze the data over the period 1993 q1 2007 q3 the results of the model using both linear and non linear specifications indicate that there is no direct impact of oil price shock on the economic activity the shock of oil prices affects economic activity indirectly the most significant channel by which the effects of the shock are transmitted is the government s spending

slow oil shocks and the weakening of the oil price macroeconomy relationship abstract many papers have been documenting and analysing the asymmetry and the weakening of the oil price macroeconomy relationship as off the early eighties while there seems to be a consensus about the factors causing the asymmetry namely adjustment costs which offset the benefits of low energy prices the debate about the weakening of the relationship is not over yet moreover the alternative oil price specifications which have been proposed by mork 1989 lee et al 1995 and hamilton 1996 to restore the stability of the relationship fail to granger cause output or unemployment in post 1980 data by using the concept of accelerations of the oil price we show that the weakening of this relationship corresponds to the appearance of slow oil price increases which have less impact on the economy when filtering out these slow oil price variations from the sample we manage to rehabilitate the causality running from the oil price to the macroeconomy and show that far from weakening the oil price accelerations gdp relationship has even been growing stronger since the early eighties

the performance of long term contracts further evidence from coal markets this article extends my previous work on price adjustment in long term coal contracts to cover a period in which the nominal market prices for coal were below the prices specified in the preexisting long term contracts two related sets of questions are explored first did actual transactions prices for coal delivered pursuant to old contracts follow contractual pricing formulas leading to higher rather than lower prices or did they adapt quickly to changing market conditions second what were the relative roles offormal contractual provisions voluntary renegotiation and breach of contractual promises in determining actual transactions prices quantities and the durability of contractual relations it appears that actual transactions prices for coal delivered pursuant to old contracts were rigid downward following written contractual provisions rather than changes in current market values changing economic conditions led to an increase in renegotiation breach and litigation but the vast majority of existing long term contracts endured through the market downturn without major changes in prices or quantities from those previously agreed to by contract the threat of legal sanctions appears to have played an important role in sustaining contractual promises

the political economy of electricity dispatch reform in china the transition to a cleaner and more cost efficient electricity system in china is political economic as well as technological an example is the reform of china s method of dispatching power plants which potentially affects the economic relationships between consumers and producers between grid and generating companies and between central and provincial governments historically coal fired power plants in china all received roughly the same number of operating hours regardless of efficiency or cost in 2007 chinese government agencies began to pilot energy efficient dispatch which requires that generators be dispatched on the basis of thermal efficiency using a case study of guangxi zhuang autonomous region in southern china we evaluated potential energy and cost savings from a change to energy efficient dispatch we found that the savings are at best relatively small because large efficient generators already account for a significant share of total generation moreover as an administrative policy that does not change economic incentives energy efficient dispatch exacerbates imbalances and center provincial tensions in the current system we argue that incentive based dispatch reform is likely to produce better outcomes and that the keys to this reform are empowering an independent regulator with pricing authority and establishing a formal transparent ratemaking process

assessing the impact of oil prices on firms of different sizes its tough being in the middle recent empirical research has found evidence of a relationship between oil price movements and stock prices most published research investigates the relationship between oil price movements and stock prices using either economy wide measures of stock prices or industry sector measures of stock prices an important question that has largely gone unanswered relates to the relationship between oil prices and stock prices when the size of firms is allowed to vary relative to large firms do oil price movements have larger or smaller impacts on the stock prices of small or medium sized firms the answer to this question could have important policy implications that affect economic growth and prosperity in this paper a panel of firms is followed over a 17 year period to investigate the relationship between oil price movements firm size and stock prices evidence is found that shows the relationship between oil price movements and stock prices does vary with firm size and the relationship is strongest for medium sized firms

efficiency assessment and benchmarking of thermal power plants in india abstract per capita consumption 1 of electricity in india is many folds lesser than canada usa australia japan chaina and world average even though total energy shortage 2 and peaking shortage 3 were recorded as 11 2 and 11 85 respectively in 2008 09 reflecting non availability of sufficient supply of electricity performance improvement of very small amount can lead to large contribution in financial terms which can be utilized for capacity addition to reduce demand supply gap coal fired thermal power plants are main sources of electricity in india in this paper relative technical efficiency of 60 coal fired power plants has been evaluated and compared using ccr and bcc models of data envelopment analysis target benchmark of input variables has also been evaluated performance comparison includes small versus medium versus large power plants and also state owned versus central owned versus private owned result indicates poor performance of few power plants due to over use of input resources finding reveals that efficiency of small power plants is lower in comparison to medium and large category and also performance of state owned power plants is comparatively lower than central and privately owned study also suggests different measures to improve technical efficiency of the plants

introducing the emissions trading system to china s electricity sector challenges and opportunities we examine the challenges and opportunities to introduce emissions trading ets in china s electricity sector in which the interaction between ets and electricity market reform plays a major role china s electricity sector is currently in a slow progress towards a more competitive and market based system both equal share dispatching policy and regulated wholesale and retail pricing policies pose significant challenges for implementation of ets in china s electricity sector one of the important points of ets is to give a price for carbon emissions and establish a cost pass through mechanism reminded that the essential of carbon pricing is to put a price on carbon emissions that is equal to discounted value of the external damages it should be regarded as a part of broader policy package for energy and resources price reform this will require that any low carbon power policy should be considered as a part of whole policy package aiming at further liberalizing the electricity sector in china three policy options are identified to incorporate ets with electricity reform under different circumstances a combination of those three options is also proposed to break the lock and reinforce the positive interaction between ets and the transition towards a competitive electricity system in link with current pilot ets designs a roadmap to introduce ets in a stepwise manner is suggested

china s electricity market oriented reform from an absolute to a relative monopoly abstract the market oriented reform in electricity industry has become a global trend since 1980s although china s electricity industry has been reformed since 1978 the substantial reform has not been conducted until 1985 before 1985 china s power industry had been absolutely monopolized by the central state owned companies the absolute monopoly has been broken since 1985 when the chinese government opened doors for non central state owned investment entities and foreign investors in power supplies in order to solve the chronic power shortage in 2002 the comprehensive electricity reform plan entitled scheme of the reform for power industry was enacted however implementation of this plan was delayed due to electricity supply shortages even worse a new kind of monopoly has been developed under the background the state advances the private sector retreats in late years in some sense the former absolute monopoly has transformed the current relative monopoly we contend that the relative monopoly has reversed the market oriented reform in china s electric industry if the relative monopoly remains unchanged it will be harmful to public welfare