tax policy asset prices and growth a general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper presents a computable general equilibrium tax policy model that combines a consideration of disaggregate industry effects with an integrated treatment of short and long run adjustments to policy initiatives the model s explicit consideration of forward looking investment decisions and adjustment dynamics permits assessments of short run effects of tax policy on asset values as well as long term impacts on capital accumulation simulations reveal that effects on asset values and investment depend critically on whether policies are oriented toward new or old capital investment tax credits yield significant increases in investment without conferring windfall gains to corporate shareholders corporate tax cuts with the same revenue cost on the other hand yield large windfalls to shareholders while providing only a modest investment stimulus incidence and growth effects differ considerably across sectors particularly between business and housing

banking in computable general equilibrium economies abstract in this paper we develop a computable general equilibrium economy that models the banking sector explicitly banks intermediate between households and between the household sector and the government sector households borrow from banks to finance their purchases of houses and they lend to banks to save for retirement banks pool households savings and they purchase interest bearing government debt and non interest bearing reserves we use this structure to answer two sets of questions one normative in nature that evaluates the welfare costs of alternative monetary and tax policies and one positive in nature that studies the real effects of following a procyclical interest rate policy rule

pricing and scheduling decisions with leadtime flexibility this paper studies a problem faced by a manufacturer who has the ability to set prices to influence demand reject orders and set leadtimes or due dates for accepted orders we present decision models that integrate pricing and production decisions for the cases where the manufacturer charges the same price or different prices to different customers through numerical analyses we present insights regarding the benefits of price customization leadtime and inventory flexibilities in various demand environments

the marginal cost of public funds and tax reform in africa abstract in this paper we propose estimates of the marginal cost of public funds mcf in 38 african countries we develop a simple general equilibrium model that can handle taxes on five major tax classes and can be calibrated with little more than national accounts data a key feature of our model is the explicit recognition of the informal economy our base case estimate of the average mcf from marginal increases in all five tax instruments is 1 2 focusing on the lowest cost tax instruments in each country commonly the vat but not always the average mcf is 1 1 finally extending the tax base to include sections of the informal economy by removing some tax exemptions offers the potential for a low mcf source of public funds and a lowering of mcfs on other tax instruments

institution induced productivity differences and patterns of international capital flows abstract this paper studies theoretically how the cross country differences in the institutional quality iq of the domestic credit markets shape the patterns of international capital flows when such iq differences cause productivity differences across countries iq affects productivity by changing productivity agency cost trade offs across heterogeneous investment projects which have opposite effects on the investment and capital flows from exogenous productivity differences the overall effect of iq could generate u shaped responses of the investment and capital flows this means that capital could flow from middle income to low income and high income countries and starting from a low iq a country could experience both growth and a current account surplus after an institutional reform more generally the results here offer some cautions when interpreting the evidence on the role of productivity and institutional differences on capital flows and question the validity of using financial frictions as a proxy for the quality of financial institutions

the incidence and efficiency costs of corporate taxation when corporate and noncorporate firms produce the same good one difficulty confronting harberger s celebrated model of the corporate income tax is how to treat noncorporate production in primarily corporate sectors and corporate production in primarily noncorporate sectors the paper presents a two good model with corporate and noncorporate production of both goods the incidence of corporate tax in our mutual production model can differ markedly from that in the harberger model the difference between the two models in deadweight loss is also striking with losses in the mutual production model many times larger than those in the harberger model

weak instruments diagnosis and cures in empirical econometrics what is the weak instruments wi problem and what causes it universal agreement does not exist on these questions we define weak instruments by two features i two stage least squares 2sls analysis is badly biased toward the ordinary least squares ols estimate and alternative unbiased estimators such as limited information maximum likelihood liml may not solve the problem and ii the standard first order asymptotic distribution does not give an accurate framework for inference thus a researcher may estimate bad results and not be aware of the outcome the cause of wi is often stated to be a low r or f statistic of the reduced form equation in the most commonly occurring situation of one right handside endogenous variable we find the situation is more complex with an additional factor the correlation between the stochastic disturbances of the structural equation and the reduced form that needs to be taken into account we discuss in this paper a specification test hahn and hausman 2002a for wi a caution against using no moments estimators such as liml in the wi situation and suggestions for different estimators an approach to inference of frank kleibergen 2002 for wi we end with a caution of how small biases can become large biases in the wi situation we begin with the limited information structural model under the assumptions of hausman 1983

investment ramifications of distortionary tax subsidies abstract this paper examines the investment effects of tax subsidies for which some assets and not others are eligible distortionary tax subsidies concentrate investments in tax favored assets thereby reducing the expected pre tax profitability of investment and reducing payoffs to bondholders in the event of default anticipation of asset substitution encourages lenders to require covenants in debt contracts which only imperfectly address asset substitution and distort investment the result is that borrowing is made more expensive which in turn discourages investment borrowing rates can react so strongly that aggregate investment may rise very little or even fall in response to higher tax subsidies debt issued by u s firms in risk of default after the 2002 introduction of bonus depreciation for u s equipment investment contained many more covenants than in other periods a pattern that reversed when bonus depreciation was discontinued after 2004 furthermore firms at risk of default borrowed less and were more apt to lease capital than were other firms during the bonus depreciation period

do voters demand responsive governments evidence from indian disaster relief abstract using rainfall public relief and election data from india we examine how governments respond to adverse shocks and how voters react to these responses the data show that voters punish the incumbent party for weather events beyond its control however fewer voters punish the ruling party when its government responds vigorously to the crisis indicating that voters reward the government for responding to disasters we also find evidence suggesting that voters only respond to rainfall and government relief efforts during the year immediately preceding the election in accordance with these electoral incentives governments appear to be more generous with disaster relief in election years these results describe how failures in electoral accountability can lead to suboptimal policy outcomes

tax reform theory and practice abstract the tax reform act of 1986 is the most significant piece of tax legislation enacted since the income tax was converted to a mass tax during world war ii after decades of erosion the indi

monetary innovations capital taxation and real wage movements some new evidence central to many new classical macroeconomic models is the notion that unanticipated money growth affects real wages adversely while anticipated money growth is neutral to date however the empirical evidence on the subject has been mixed early studies of sargent and sims 29 and sims 30 reported that monetary surprises had a positive effect on real wages leiderman 18 however provided evidence consistent with the implications of these models the results of more recent studies have also been ambiguous koray 16 concludes that anticipated money growth has an adverse effect on total real wages but unanticipated money growth is neutral in contrast kim 15 finds that both anticipated and unanticipated money growth have negative effects on real wages one difficulty with these studies is the implicit assumption that real wage movements are primarily caused by aggregate demand disturbances in a recent paper sumner and silver 33 assert that real shocks can also have an important influence on real wages and should be taken into account

sensitivity of optimal prices to system parameters in a steady state service facility we consider the problem of maximizing the long run average reward in a service facility with dynamic pricing we investigate sensitivity of optimal pricing policies to the parameters of the service facility which is modelled as an m m s k queueing system arrival process to the facility is poisson with arrival rate a decreasing function of the price currently being charged by the facility we prove structural results on the optimal pricing policies when the parameters in the facility change namely we show that optimal prices decrease when the capacity of the facility or the number of servers in the facility increase under a reasonable assumption we also show that optimal prices increase as the overall demand for the service provided by the facility increases or when the service rate of the facility decreases we illustrate how these structural results simplify the required computational effort while finding the optimal policy

pricing and lead time decisions for make to order firms with contingent orders abstract make to order mto firms have few standard products and volatile difficult to predict demand a production order usually stems from a successful bid which presents the mto firm s terms including price and lead time to satisfy a prospective customer s stated requirements the customer may decide to accept reject or modify these terms until the customer decides the tendered bid is a contingent demand on the mto firm s future production capacity in the short run this capacity may be relatively fixed and if the customer awards the contract to another bidder it may simply go to waste to hedge against this possibility the mto firm can bid on other projects that require the same capacity however this strategy introduces a new source of lead time uncertainty if two or more booked orders must contend for the same resources some work will inevitably be bumped to later time periods thus a hedging strategy carries the risk of penalties for late deliveries in this paper we model this little discussed source of lead time uncertainty and introduce a technique that simultaneously optimizes pricing and lead time decisions for mto firms with contingent orders we illustrate the procedure with a simple numerical example

good day sunshine stock returns and the weather psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood this paper examines the relationship between morning sunshine in the city of a country s leading stock exchange and daily market index returns across 26 countries from 1982 to 1997 sunshine is strongly significantly correlated with stock returns after controlling for sunshine rain and snow are unrelated to returns substantial use of weather based strategies was optimal for a trader with very low transactions costs however because these strategies involve frequent trades fairly modest costs eliminate the gains these findings are difficult to reconcile with fully rational price setting

pricing and lead time decisions in decentralized supply chains this paper studies a decentralized supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer facing price and lead time sensitive demands a stackelberg game is constructed to analyze the price and lead time decisions by the supplier as the leader and the retailer as the follower the equilibrium strategies of the two players are obtained using the performance of the corresponding centralized system as a benchmark we show that decentralized decisions in general are inefficient and lead to inferior performance due to the double marginalization effect however further analysis shows that the decision inefficiency is strongly influenced by market and operational factors and if the operational factors are dominating it may not be significant this shows that before pursuing a coordination strategy with retailers a supplier should first improve his or her own internal operations

something in the air pollution and the demand for health insurance we find that daily air pollution levels have a significant effect on the decision to purchase or cancel health insurance in a manner inconsistent with rational choice theory a one standard deviation increase in daily air pollution leads to a 7 2 increase in the number of insurance contracts sold that day conditional on purchase a one standard deviation decrease in air pollution during the cooling off i e cost free cancellation period relative to the order date level increases the return probability by 4 0 we explore a range of potential mechanism and find the most support for projection bias and salience

attribution error in economic voting evidence from trade shocks this article exploits the international transmission of business cycles to examine the prevalence of attribution error in economic voting in a large panel of countries from 1990 to 2009 we find that voters on average exhibit a strong tendency to oust the incumbent governments during an economic downturn regardless of whether the recession is home grown or merely imported from trading partners however we find important heterogeneity in the extent of attribution error a split sample analysis shows that countries with more experienced voters more educated voters and possibly more informed voters all conditions that have been shown to mitigate other voter agency problems do better in distinguishing imported from domestic growth jel e3 e6

the inverse newsvendor problem choosing an optimal demand portfolio for capacitated resources the classical newsvendor problem is one of optimally choosing a level of capacity to respond to a known demand distribution the inverse newsvendor problem is one of optimally choosing a demand distribution with fixed capacity the applications of the inverse problem include industrial settings where demand management is relatively less costly than capacity adjustments demand distributions are chosen from an opportunity set which reflects the set of market opportunities for the firm we analyze the firm s profit as a function of these demand alternatives provide solution methods and insights and identify inefficient and dominated distributions we provide results when the opportunity set is known or only partially known we extend the results to cases in which there are multiple prioritized customer classes that share the firm s productive capacity this paper was motivated by an industrial application in a firm selling a semicommodity product into three prioritized industrial sectors we review the application of our methods to this setting

tax reform and the political economy of the tax base abstract this paper studies the political prospects for reform in a model where the tax base and statutory rate are separate instruments of tax policy the model suggests that large changes in the tax code may be easier to enact than marginal reforms the tax base faces a tipping point where even the beneficiaries from tax exemptions support reform at this tipping point tax reform is pareto improving politically feasible tax reform occurs when fiscal needs are large but may nonetheless involve reductions in marginal tax rates there is strategic complementarity in lobbying for tax exemptions resulting in multiple equilibria the model s main predictions are consistent with recent tax reforms in oecd countries

attribution bias in consumer choice when judging the value of a good people may be overly influenced by the state in which they previously consumed it for example someone who tries out a new restaurant while very hungry may subsequently rate it as high quality even if the food is mediocre we produce a simple framework for this form of attribution bias that embeds a standard model of decision making as a special case we test for attribution bias across two consumer decisions first we conduct an experiment in which we randomly manipulate the thirst of participants prior to consuming a new drink second using data from thousands of amusement park visitors we explore how pleasant weather during their most recent trip affects their stated and actual likelihood of returning in both of these domains we find evidence that people misattribute the influence of a temporary state to a stable quality of the consumption good we provide evidence against several alternative accounts for our findings and discuss the broader implications of attribution bias in economic decision making

something to talk about social spillovers in movie consumption we exploit the randomness of weather and the relationship between weather and moviegoing to quantify social spillovers in movie consumption instrumenting for early viewership with plausibly exogenous weather shocks captured in lasso chosen instruments we find that shocks to opening weekend viewership are doubled over the following five weekends our estimated momentum arises almost exclusively at the local level and we find no evidence that it varies with either ex post movie quality or the precision of ex ante information about movie quality suggesting that the observed momentum is driven in part by a preference for shared experience and not only by social learning

price and lead time decisions in dual channel supply chains abstract manufacturers today are increasingly adopting a dual channel to sell their products i e the traditional retail channel and an online direct channel empirical studies have shown that service quality we focus on the delivery lead time of the direct channel even goes beyond product price as one of the major factors influencing consumer acceptance of the direct channel delivery lead time has significant effects on demand profit and pricing strategy however there is scant literature addressing the decision on the promised delivery lead time of a direct channel and its impact on the manufacturer s and retailer s pricing decisions to fill this gap we examine the optimal decisions of delivery lead time and prices in a centralized and a decentralized dual channel supply chain using the two stage optimization technique and stackelberg game and analyze the impacts of delivery lead time and customer acceptance of a direct channel on the manufacturer s and retailer s pricing behaviours we analytically show that delivery lead time strongly influences the manufacturer s and the retailer s pricing strategies and profits our numerical studies reveal that the difference between the demand transfer ratios in the two channels with respect to delivery lead time and direct sale price customer acceptance of the direct channel and product type have great effects on the lead time and pricing decisions

the psychological effect of weather on car purchases when buying durable goods consumers must forecast how much utility they will derive from future consumption including consumption in different states of the world this can be complicated for consumers because making intertemporal evaluations may expose them to a variety of psychological biases such as present bias projection bias and salience effects we investigate whether consumers are affected by such intertemporal biases when they purchase automobiles using data for more than 40 million vehicle transactions we explore the impact of weather on purchasing decisions we find that the choice to purchase a convertible or a four wheel drive is highly dependent on the weather at the time of purchase in a way that is inconsistent with classical utility theory we consider a range of rational explanations for the empirical effects we find but none can explain fully the effects we estimate we then discuss and explore projection bias and salience as two primary psychological mechanisms that are consistent with our results jel codes d03 d12

price and lead time quotation for contract and spot customers we study price and lead time quotation decisions in a make to order system with two customer classes 1 contract customers whose orders are practically always accepted and fulfilled based on a contract price and lead time agreed on at the beginning of the time horizon and 2 spot purchasers who arrive over time and are quoted a price and lead time pair dynamically the objective is to maximize the long run expected average profit per unit time where profit from a customer is defined as revenues minus lateness penalties incurred because of lead time violations we model the dynamic quotation problem of the spot purchasers as an infinite horizon markov decision process given a fixed price and lead time for contract customers we analyze the impact of customer preferences e g price and lead time sensitivity on the optimal price and lead time decisions for spot purchasers and characterize the optimal policy we explore the benefits of dynamic quotation compared to the use of fixed price and lead tim

technical note an optimal policy for joint dynamic price and lead time quotation for a dynamic joint price and lead time quotation problem with a fairly general demand function we show that the policy consisting of a threshold and a reward maximizing lead time is optimal this policy offers some interesting managerial insights under this policy finding the exact optimal quotation can be accomplished by single variable policy iterations of unimodal value functions

the welfare cost of capital income taxation in a growing economy the welfare cost of capital income taxation is analyzed in a general equilibrium framework where the private sector is represented by a competitive household endowed with perfect foresight and an infinite life the value of the welfare cost depends essentially on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in the production function numerical estimates are presented for different values of the parameters of the model the welfare gain obtained by the abolition of the capital income tax is smaller when the private sector is not endowed with perfect foresight it is reduced by about 40 percent when expectations are myopic the allocation efficiency cost of the corporate tax dwarfs the intertemporal welfare cost

dynamic pricing and lead time quotation for a multiclass make to order queue this paper considers a profit maximizing make to order manufacturer that offers multiple products to a market of price and delay sensitive users using a model that captures three aspects of particular interest first the joint use of dynamic pricing and lead time quotation controls to manage demand second the presence of a dual sourcing mode that can expedite orders at a cost and third the interaction of the aforementioned demand controls with the operational decisions of sequencing and expediting that the firm must employ to optimize revenues and satisfy the quoted lead times using an approximating diffusion control problem we derive near optimal dynamic pricing lead time quotation sequencing and expediting policies that provide structural insights and lead to practically implementable recommendations a set of numerical results illustrates the value of joint pricing and lead time control policies

dynamic pricing in the presence of inventory considerations research overview current practices and future directions the benefits of dynamic pricing methods have long been known in industries such as airlines hotels and electric utilities where the capacity is fixed in the short term and perishable in recent years there has been an increasing adoption of dynamic pricing policies in retail and other industries where the sellers have the ability to store inventory three factors contributed to this phenomenon 1 the increased availability of demand data 2 the ease of changing prices due to new technologies and 3 the availability of decision support tools for analyzing demand data and for dynamic pricing this paper constitutes a review of the literature and current practices in dynamic pricing given its applicability in most markets and its increasing adoption in practice our focus is on dynamic intertemporal pricing in the presence of inventory considerations

happiness and time preference the effect of positive affect in a random assignment experiment abstract we conduct a random assignment experiment to investigate whether positive affect impacts time preference where time preference denotes a preference for present over future utility our result indicates that compared to neutral affect mild positive affect significantly reduces time preference over money this result is robust to various specification checks and alternative interpretations of the result are considered our result has implications for the effect of happiness on time preference and the role of emotions in economic decision making in general finally we reconfirm the ubiquity of time preference and start to explore its determinants djel d12 d83 i31

tax reform and u s economic growth in this paper we evaluate the impact of the tax reform act of 1986 on u s economic growth we first calculate effective tax rates on income from capital employed in corporate noncorporate and household sectors we then project the future growth of the u s economy with and without the 1986 tax reform we find that much of the potential gain in welfare was dissipated through failure to index the income tax base for inflation the most promising avenue for future reform is to include income from household assets in the tax base while reducing tax rates on business income