evaluating welfare reform in the united states this paper reviews the economic literature on welfare reform over the 1990s a brief summary of the policy changes is followed by a discussion of the methodological techniques that analyze the effects of these changes on outcomes the paper then critically reviews the econometric and experimental literature on caseload changes labor force changes poverty and income changes and family formation changes a growing body of evidence suggests that recent policy changes have influenced economic behavior and well being one particular set of new style welfare programs seems to show especially promising results with significantly increased work and earnings and reduced poverty

an equilibrium model of incentive contracts in the presence of information manipulation abstract this paper develops an agency model in which stock based compensation is a double edged sword inducing managers to exert productive effort but also to divert valuable firm resources to misrepresent performance we examine how the potential for manipulation affects the equilibrium level of pay for performance sensitivity and derive several new cross sectional implications that are consistent with recent empirical studies in addition we analyze the impact of recent regulatory changes contained in the sarbanes oxley act of 2002 and show how policies intended to increase firm value by reducing misrepresentation can actually reduce firm value or increase the upward bias in manipulated disclosures

assessing the case for social experiments rs ecent academic debates pit two alternative approaches to policy evaluation against one another the first is the experimental approach based on the random assignment of accepted program applicants to a recipient or treatment group and a non recipient or control group the second is the nonexperimental or econometric approach that uses a variety of microdata sources statistical methods and behavioral models to compare the outcomes of participants in social programs with those of nonparticipants the central question addressed in this paper is whether or not randomized social experiments aid in securing answers to basic questions about the evaluation of social programs there are many distinct and complementary approaches to the study of the impact of public policy including full general equilibrium analysis of policy impacts tinbergen 1956 auerbach and kotlikoff 1987 shoven and whalley 1992 kydland and prescott 1991 and less ambitious partial equilibrium microeconomic structural research programs such as those designed to estimate the impact of taxes on labor supply both approaches offer answers to many interesting counterfactual policy questions but their credibility rests critically on the quality of the empirical input used to generate their answers

time series minimum wage studies a meta analysis time series minimum wage studies a meta analysis author s david card and alan b krueger reviewed work s source the american economic review vol 85 no 2 papers and proceedings of the hundredth and seventh annual meeting of the american economic association washington dc january 6 8 1995 may 1995 pp 238 243 published by american economic association stable url http www jstor org stable 2117925 accessed 04 11 2011 15 46

social programs as positive inducements for tax participation a significant amount of non compliance with the personal income tax is due to individuals who have not filed a tax return and so who are not in the system we use experimental laboratory methods to examine the effect of positive inducements for filing a tax return our design captures the essential features of a voluntary income reporting and tax assessment system human participants earn income they must decide whether to file a tax return and conditional upon filing they must choose how much income to report taxes are paid on reported income only unreported income of filers may be discovered via a random audit and the participant then pays owed taxes plus a fine inducements for filing are introduced as treatments a social safety net e g unemployment replacement income that is conditional upon past filing behavior and a tax credit that is available only to those who file our results suggest that an untargeted tax credit can encourage participation but that targeting the credit to low income earners offers a stronger inducement to file also the provision of a social safety net via unemployment benefits has a positive albeit an indirect impact on participation

no taxation without information deterrence and self enforcement in the value added tax abstract claims that the vat facilitates tax enforcement by generating paper trails on transactions between firms contributed to widespread vat adoption worldwide but there is surprisingly little evidence this paper analyzes the role of third party information for vat enforcement through two randomized experiments among over 400 000 chilean firms announcing additional monitoring has less impact on transactions that are subject to a paper trail indicating the paper trail s preventive deterrence effect this leads to strong enforcement spillovers up the vat chain these findings confirm that when taking evasion into account significant differences emerge between otherwise equivalent forms of taxation jel d83 h25 h26 k34 o17

tax base erosion in developing countries it is widely believed that the tax base in most developing countries has been severely eroded by legal tax avoidance and illegal tax evasion brought about largely by poor tax administration 1 this erosion it is thought has had a variety of fiscal effects tax revenues are lost and the growth of the tax base is dampened the progressivity implied by the statutory rate structure is not achieved the costs of tax administration are increased and horizontal and vertical equity suffer because the effective tax rates faced by individuals depend largely upon their success in playing the tax compliance game it is not surprising therefore that virtually all fiscal reform programs in developing countries start with the promise to improve administration better administration is a discretionary government action that at once can lower the tax rate increase revenues slow capital flight and improve the fairness of the system yet tax base erosion in developing countries is something about which precious little is known and in particular the empirical evidence about the severity and the nature of the problem is all but nonexistent 2 why do we know so little about the dimensions of the evasionavoidance problem one reason is conceptual problems in measuring erosion of the tax base for example how does one estimate the substitution of nontaxable for taxable compensation in response to the tax structure or the extent to which a higher marginal tax rate has induced individuals to report less of their taxable income another reason is the problem of comparability across countries the many legal and

enforcement socioeconomic diversity and tax filing compliance in the united states in this article we examine the determinants of tax filing compliance in the united states we use county level data on non filing rates for the tax year 2000 obtained directly from the internal revenue service we include explanatory variables identified in the rational compliance framework including an enforcement index against identified non filers the audit rate of filers and the average penalty rate for both filers and non filers we also examine the role of socioeconomic diversity on tax compliance testing whether within county heterogeneity in household income language race and religion can help explain variation in non filing rates we find that non filing is increasing with heterogeneity by race although not by income or language and that non filing is decreasing with heterogeneity by religious membership as for enforcement variables we find that non filing rates tend to fall with the enforcement index other variables have somewhat mixed results

ghostbusting in detroit evidence on nonfilers from a controlled field experiment abstract many people who owe income tax fail to file a timely tax return in communication with these ghosts what messages from the tax authority are effective for eliciting a return this is the first study to address message content in communication with income tax nonfilers i assess the efficacy of messages related to penalty salience punishment probability compliance cost and civic pride by evaluating the response to experimental mailings distributed by detroit to 7142 suspected resident nonfilers the penalty salience message was the most effective relative to a basic mailing that requested a return penalty salience mailings that stated the statutory penalty for failing to file a return tripled response rates from 3 to 10 compliance cost mailings that enclosed a blank tax return and punishment probability mailings that stated the recipient s federal income also raised response rates relative to the basic mailing but civic pride mailings did not i investigate the impact of treatment mailings on the behavior of untreated neighbors and find no evidence of geographic network effects

getting the word out enforcement information dissemination and compliance behavior the question for the tax authority is how individuals become aware of enforcement effort to be an effective tool in reducing tax evasion taxpayers must be aware of the current audit and penalty regime we use laboratory experiments to examine the compliance impact of types of information dissemination regarding audit frequency and results the information includes official information disseminated by the tax authority and unofficial or informal communications among taxpayers our results indicate that the effect of the type of post audit information is conditional on whether the taxpayer is well informed of the audit rate prior to filing we find that the tax authority would be served by pre announcing audit rates credibly and by emphasizing the previous period audit frequency in annual reporting of enforcement effort

efficient tax reporting the effects of taxpayer liability information services the complexity of the individual income tax system can give rise to both under and overreporting of liability thus creating a wedge between taxpayer perceptions of the price of public services and their actual cost and potentially leading to budget misallocations and associated efficiency losses this study uses theory and experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of taxpayer service programs that endeavor to resolve uncertainty over tax liability to do so we induce uncertainty over tax liability and investigate the effects of both service accuracy and reliability we find participants are less likely to file when tax liability is uncertain but the provision of information offsets this effect furthermore it appears that simply providing a service even one that imperfectly reveals liability increases the propensity to file and the accuracy of the filing when a service that promises to resolve uncertainty completely is requested but not delivered the result is underreporting even more severe than in a setting where no service is available jel h2 h26 c91

time series evidence of the effect of the minimum wage on youth employment and unemployment our updated estimates indicate that a 10 percent increase in the federal minimum wage or the coverage rate would reduce teenage 16 19 employment by about 1 percent which is at the lower end of the range of estimates from previous studies because of substantial labor force withdrawal the unemployment effects are practically zero these minimum wage effects differ very little by sex and there is no strong evidence that the effects vary by race the study also finds a significant albeit small unemployment impact for young adults 20 24 and examines the consequences of numerous alternative statistical and mathematical specifications of the estimating model

electronic filing tax preparers and participation in the earned income tax credit abstract in 2002 more than 18 million low income individual taxpayers received the earned income tax credit eitc despite its size non participation in this program is a concern and substantial effort is devoted by the irs local governments and many non profits to address it using variation across states in the introduction of state electronic filing programs we show that the introduction of electronic filing had a significant effect on participation in the eitc our results are robust to accounting for other welfare eitc and irs reforms introduced during the same period we speculate that the impact of this policy change on the tax preparation industry played an important role in increasing participation

performance thresholds in managerial incentive contracts performance thresholds are commonly used in executive compensation contracts we examine the contractual nonlinearity associated with performance thresholds and its incentive implications incorporating a performance threshold into a standard principal agent model of a linear contract we show that pay schemes using a performance threshold are optimal by truncating a linear scheme at poor performance the threshold mitigates agency costs associated with the downside risk of production examining ceo compensation data we find evidence of the role of performance thresholds as a consequence of under threshold performance the tobit estimator is shown to increase pay performance sensitivity notably improving upon the standard ols estimator

monetary rewards and decision cost in experimental economics a survey of thirty one experimental studies which report data on the comparative effects of monetary rewards and opportunity cost shows 1 several studies in which increased rewards shift the central tendency of the data toward the predictions of rational models 2 in virtually all cases rewards reduce the variance of the data around the predicted outcome this is consistent with a model in which rewards are balanced against decision cost in agent behavior and explicates the argument that when rational models fail it can be attributed to low opportunity cost of deviations from the rational prediction

federal minimum wage laws and the employment of minority youth numerous studies have emerged over the past decade dealing with the employment effects of minimum wage legislation for example see jacob mincer and edward gramlich these studies uniformly show that some amount of disemployment results from the imposition of a minimum wage above a wage that would prevail in the absence of such legislation though there is considerable dispute concerning the magnitude of the effect in addition most if not all of the recent studies indicate a greater employment sensitivity to changes in the minimum wage on the part of teenagers nonwhites and the low skilled generally than is true for other groups job losses due to higher minimum wages may contribute to high unemployment rates among youth in general and minority youth in particular this paper presents no direct evidence on the impact of the minimum wage on teenage unemployment its results do suggest however that previous studies of the impact of the minimum wage on employment loss were probably biased towards overstatement of the effect of the minimum wage in the case of nonwhite teenagers the results presented here indicate that over the period 1954 to 1979 cyclical factors affected nonwhite teenage employment to a far greater extent than did changes in the minimum wage

annual bonus schemes and the manipulation of earnings abstract using confidential data of executive specific short term bonus plans we investigate the extent to which executives manipulate earnings to maximize the present value of bonus plan payments as such this paper extends the work of healy 1985 like healy we find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that managers manipulate earnings downwards when their bonuses are at their maximum unlike healy we find no evidence that managers manipulate earnings downwards when earnings are below the minimum necessary to receive any bonus we demonstrate that healy s results at the lower bound are likely to be induced by his methodology

is economics useful for public policy economists have always played an important role in major public policy debates even so i believe that the role of economists in these public policy discussions has often been misguided because it has typically relied upon best practices stated in the form of general guidelines or even universal principles however best practices are not best if the specific situation does not conform with the assumptions that underlie the advice so my first conclusion is a cautionary and negative one specific circumstances differ so profoundly across individuals firms markets countries and time that most any attempt to define best practices that apply in all circumstances will lead to profoundly misleading public policy recommendations however even if economics cannot identify the truth it can often identify a truth so my second conclusion is a more positive one economists should continue to develop multiple theories that inform public policies but we should also focus our efforts on identifying and testing the critical assumptions that drive the results of these theories recognizing that the validity of any assumptions will depend intimately on specific circumstances i illustrate these two main conclusions with specific examples from my own work i conclude with some best practices recommendations of my own recognizing the obvious irony of such an effort

heard it through the grapevine the direct and network effects of a tax enforcement field experiment on firms abstract tax enforcement may have deterrent effects that extend beyond directly treated taxpayers but evidence of such deterrent effects for major sources of revenue is limited this paper studies the effects of a large scale field experiment on employer deposits that make up most u s tax collections in person visits by revenue officers have a large direct effect on visited firms tax deposits the other clients of visited firms tax preparers also deposit more tax a network effect that suggests preparers disseminate information aggregating over all links this network effect accounts for 1 2 times as much revenue as the direct effect letters conveying the same message are found to have much smaller direct effects and no measurable network effects

biased forecasts or biased earnings the role of reported earnings in explaining apparent bias and over underreaction in analysts earnings forecasts the extensive literature that investigates whether analysts earnings forecasts are biased and or inefficient has produced conflicting evidence and no definitive answers to either question this paper shows how two relatively small but statistically influential asymmetries in the tail and the middle of distributions of analysts forecast errors can exaggerate or obscure evidence consistent with analyst bias and inefficiency leading to inconsistent inferences we identify an empirical link between firms recognition of unexpected accruals and the presence of the two asymmetries in distributions of forecast errors that suggests that firm reporting choices play an important role in determining analysts forecast errors r 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

taxation base in developing countries abstract informal sectors are larger in developing countries than in rich countries this is a result of higher fixed costs of entry into the formal economy in developing countries we show that raising barriers to entry is consistent with a deliberate government policy for raising tax revenue by generating market power and hence rents for the permitted entrants market entry fees foster the emergence of large taxpayers the rents can be readily confiscated by the government through entry fees and taxes on profits at a low administrative cost the relevance of the theory is assessed with a sample of 64 countries empirical analysis supports the results of the paper

the external validity of experimental economics techniques analysis of demand behavior this paper examines the parallelism which exists between demand behavior determined from the sale of a private good in an actual real world field setting and in a laboratory auction setting the demand behavior observed in the two settings is significantly the same leading to the corroboration of the thesis that there is often correspondence between laboratory and real world behavior

audit selection and income tax underreporting in the tax compliance game abstract this paper uses a game theoretic model of the tax compliance game to estimate a model of audit selection and income tax underreporting in jamaica the empirical analysis make use of audited tax returns for individual taxpayers and a random sample of tax returns for the population from which the audited returns are selected the estimation results strongly indicate a nonrandom audit strategy and thus provide support for the game theoretic approach the results also indicate that the probability of underreporting and the level of underreporting are positively related to the marginal tax rate and to income and negatively related to marginal payroll tax benefits in general the underreporting elasticities are small

keeping it off the books an empirical investigation of firms that engage in tax evasion this article uses a unique dataset that contains detailed information on firms from around the world to investigate factors that affect under reporting behaviour the empirical strategy employed exploits the nature of the dependent variable which is interval coded and uses interval regression which provides an asymptotically efficient estimator provided that the classical linear model assumptions hold these assumptions are investigated using standard diagnostic tests that have been modified for the interval regression model evidence is presented that shows that the firms in all regions engage in under reporting regression results indicate that government corruption has the single largest causal effect on under reporting resulting in the percentage of sales not reported to the tax authority being 51 3 higher taxes have the second single largest causal effect on under reporting resulting in the percentage of sales not reported to the tax authority being 18 0 higher followed by access to financing

why people pay taxes the case of the development levy in tanzania abstract this paper examines factors determining tax compliance behavior in local authorities in tanzania the case study is the poll tax locally named development levy the study finds support for the hypothesis that tax compliance is positively related to factors such as ability to pay the perceived probability of being prosecuted and the number of tax evaders known personally by the respondent oppressive tax enforcement harassment of taxpayers and discontent with public service delivery seem to increase tax resistance and may explain widespread tax evasion

on the external validity of laboratory tax compliance experiments i introduction laboratory methods are now widely accepted as a methodological approach in economics and increasingly they have been used to examine specific public policy issues there is much to be gained from careful laboratory experiments they offer a low cost means of testing and replicating policy innovations and they generate precise data on individual behavior thereby allowing estimation of behavioral responses importantly they allow many policy innovations to be introduced singly and exogenously in a controlled environment and as a result laboratory experiments are typically seen as having a high degree of internal validity brewer 2000 campbell and stanley 1966 shadish cook and campbell 2002 because the causal relation between variables can be properly demonstrated however as emphasized by plott 1987 using laboratory experiments can allow more general inferences regarding human behavior only when the setting implemented in the laboratory parallels what is observed in the naturally occurring world even beyond this requirement of parallelism is the need for generalizing behavioral observations from the laboratory to the field or external validity internal validity can be demonstrated through the evaluation of the design however external validity can only be verified empirically and only with respect to the specific setting being investigated this paper investigates the external validity of laboratory experiments and does so in the context of experiments on tax compliance behavior tax evasion is central to many important policy questions current estimates report the tax gap or difference between taxes owed and taxes paid in the united states to be 450 billion annually internal revenue service 2012 beyond these massive revenue losses evasion creates major misallocations in resource use when individuals alter their behavior to cheat on their taxes its presence requires that government expend resources to detect noncompliance to measure its magnitude and to penalize tax evasion evasion alters the distribution of income in arbitrary unpredictable and unfair ways and it may contribute to feelings of unjust treatment and disrespect for the law more broadly it is not possible to understand the true impact of taxation without recognizing the existence and the effects of tax evasion laboratory methods have been used to examine a wide range of policies that may affect the compliance decision policies that have not always proven amenable to either theoretical analyses or empirical analyses with field data however laboratory studies of compliance are sometimes viewed with skepticism the most common criticism is that the student subjects typically used in experiments may not be representative of taxpayers undergraduates may have little experience with filing tax returns and their economic and demographic backgrounds may differ from those of taxpayers another criticism is that the context of laboratory compliance experiments does not closely enough resemble the context in which actual compliance decisions are made as a result there is a concern that experimental results on policy innovations that rely upon student subjects in laboratory compliance experiments cannot be generalized to the population it is this issue that we examine here building on previous research we present several types of evidence on the external validity of experiments on individual compliance decisions a first question examines whether behavior of laboratory participants is replicated by behavior of individuals making a similar decision in the naturally occurring world that is do participants in laboratory experiments exhibit different patterns of behavior than individuals in a similar naturally occurring setting to answer this question we utilize a special data set from the u s internal revenue service irs assembled as part of its national research program nrp

is environmental income reporting evasive in household surveys evidence from rural poor in laos abstract literature has consistently reiterated that the self employed non poor underreport their business income to tax authorities and in household surveys in this work we measure the extent to which poor households engaging in illegal environmental activities underreport income in laos we use a two year panel data and apply the engel curve to detect and estimate the reporting gap we further use a switching probit regression to identify the factors of income underreporting and its impact on income poverty outcomes results show that on an average rural households who earn at least a quarter of their income from the environment underreport by over 50 in household surveys resulting in overestimation of income poverty moreover we find that a perceived threat to food security drives rural poor to engage in illegal environmental extraction

a dynamic portfolio choice model of tax evasion comparative statics of tax rates and its implication for economic growth abstract this paper extends the portfolio choice model of tax evasion from a static to a dynamic setting it is shown that while higher tax rates repress tax evasion in the static model they encourage tax evasion in the dynamic model we explore a novel implication of this result and show that while growth is decreasing in tax rates in the absence of tax evasion it is u shaped in tax rates in the presence of tax evasion

public goods hidden income and tax evasion some nonstandard results from the warm glow model abstract a large literature explores crowd out in situations where public goods are jointly provided work in this area typically depicts a tax system where individuals take taxes as given but in some settings such as those in developing economies efforts to evade or avoid taxes may be widespread using the canonical warm glow model this paper considers joint public good provision in a setting where individuals can evade taxes by hiding their income the model s implications change significantly in this setting with hidden income stronger warm glow will lead to greater crowd out not less using research on crowd out and inter family transfers i present suggestive evidence that the model s results may help to reconcile divergent estimates of crowd out in the literature

searching for ghosts who are the nonfilers and how much tax do they owe this paper is about ghosts individuals who fail to comply with their income tax filing requirements as their name suggests the identities and characteristics of these individuals are shrouded in mystery in this paper we attempt to de mystify the issues surrounding ghosts and examine their role in the compliance process we begin by extending a standard model of tax evasion to account for the existence of ghosts we then examine the empirical significance and policy relevance of our extension using a unique data set containing detailed tax and audit information for both filers and nonfilers of u s federal income tax returns 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

additional evidence on bonus plans and income management abstract we extend healy 1985 by examining the relation between discretionary accruals and bonus plan bounds for a sample of 102 firms for the 1980 1990 period contrary to healy we find that when earnings before discretionary accruals fall below the lower bound managers select income increasing discretionary accruals and vice versa we believe that our results are more consistent with the income smoothing hypothesis than with healy s bonus hypothesis however mechanical selection bias in portfolio formation cannot be entirely ruled out as an alternative explanation for our results

fiscal corruption a vice or a virtue abstract recent literature on tax administration in poor countries suggests there are virtues in allowing fiscal corruption by strengthening the bargaining power of corrupt tax officers it is argued that tax evasion may be reduced and tax revenues increased but does such an intriguing paradox justify policies that stimulate corruption our answer is no and this note puts forward three arguments to support our view first while an increase in corruption may raise revenues in the short run in general the opposite will be the case in the longer run second the instrumental value of reducing corruption goes far beyond its effects on tax evasion and tax revenues accepting corruption as a policy strategy to increase tax revenues may undermine values of democracy and good governance third eliminating corruption should be considered an end in itself thus contrary to recent suggestions on incentive reforms in tax administration the reasonable starting point for policy debates in this area should still be that an increase in fiscal corruption is not an appropriate instrument for raising tax revenues sustained development cannot occur in an institutional framework that fosters corruption and extra legal tax enforcement

regional effects of the minimum wage on teenage employment previous research on the minimum wage using national level data concludes that the minimum wage has a small effect on the employment of teenagers this paper provides new evidence that there is substantial regional variation in the effect of the minimum wage and in some regions it has a decidedly larger impact on teenage employment than previously measured estimates from a panel data set of the us states suggest that the minimum wage may cause almost a 7 reduction in teenage employment in some regions this results is robust to different econometric specifications and holds whether a relative or real specification of the estimating equation is used

the optimal shape of compensation contracts with earnings management the research question of why earnings management occurs is decomposed into two questions in this article which component of executive compensation generates incentives for earnings management and why is the compensation structured that way in the first place we first use as a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model to show that big bath and earning overstatement can co exist as equilibrium financial reporting strategies when thresholds are used in compensation contracts in order to understand the use of performance thresholds as a prevailing compensation strategy in practice we then derive the optimal compensation contract when the manager is privately informed about economic earnings and his expertise in managing earnings equilibria exist in which the inactive region below a threshold in compensation should be economically significant

criminal behaviour and youth in the labour market the case of the pernicious minimum wage this paper empirically tests the relationship between variations in uniform crime reports ucr index crime rates for teenagers 16 19 years of age with changes in the real minimum wage adjusted for industry coverage in the united states for the period 1960 1987 the analysis reveals that there exists a positive relationship between changes in the real minimum wage and teenage criminal homicide forcible rape and motor vehicle theft crime rates these findings are consistent with the empirical evidence concerning the impacts of the minimum wage on youth labour market opportunities and also with the theoretical ad empirical evidence regarding the incidence of criminal activity made as an occupational choice decision formulated under risk and uncertainty however the results indicate no impact of the minimum wage on the other teenage ucr index crime rates as found by hashimoto 1987 the evidence also suggests that variations in real criminal justice expenditures per capita reduce teenage propety crime ra