structural interpretation of vector autoregressions with incomplete identification revisiting the role of oil supply and demand shocks traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions vars can be viewed as special cases of bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs these methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves we use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply and demand supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after a significant lag whereas shocks to oil demand do not

modelling the transport sector fuel demand for developng economies abstract this paper concentrates on the transport sector of six developing countries with similar common denominators namely turkey thailand pakistan morocco tunisia and malaysia by using standard econometric techniques we analyse the evolution of oil demand for road transport in these countries in relation to independent variables such as income population price of gasoline and diesel etc unlike the treatment in the present literature on the subject gasoline and diesel consumption are estimated separately due to the high share of diesel in the total transport sector consumption on the basis of the estimation over the period 1970 1990 on a country by country basis we forecast the demand for these six countries until 2010 the results of this study indicate that the transport sector will be the driving force for energy and oil demand as part of economic growth in these developing countries its share in the future energy market structure is expected to grow consequently the pricing policies of oil products in this sector have a crucial role for shaping rational economic and energy strategies within the framework of rising environmental concern

fuel consumption for road transport in the usa abstract this study provides both a historical analysis of fuel demand for road transport and an example of using econometric results for projections fuel consumption by all motor vehicles in the usa has been analysed by splitting total demand into passenger car truck and other demands distance travelled and fuel efficiency equations have been estimated for both the passenger car fleet and trucks an essentially five equation model has been constructed and used to simulate likely fuel demand patterns up to 1990

gasoline price volatility and the elasticity of demand for gasoline abstract we examine how gasoline price volatility impacts consumers price elasticity of demand for gasoline results show that volatility in prices decreases consumer demand for gasoline in the intermediate run we also find that consumers appear to be less elastic in response to changes in gasoline price when gasoline price volatility is medium or high compared to when it is low moreover we find that when we control for variance in our econometric model gasoline price elasticity of demand is lower in magnitude in the long run

the demand for gasoline abstract sufficient time must be allowed to elapse to assess fully the response of gasoline demand to price changes hitherto empirical work on the subject has generally not examined the period beyond 1975 moreover the extant time series studies concentrate almost exclusively on the usa this study extends both the observation period and the country coverage a vehicle stock adjustment model is estimated via its reduced form without explicit consideration of the vehicle stock itself however the estimation procedure incorporates the structure by way of constraints on the parameters cross section analysis offers additional evidence concerning the truly long run price elasticity the results suggest that there is no need to resort to elaborate models to explain adequately gasoline demand gasoline demand exhibits a long run price elasticity near unity with time lags exceeding six years while there is tentative evidence that the duration of these lags is not fixed

fdi as an outcome of the market for corporate control theory and evidence abstract much foreign direct investment fdi takes the form of mergers and acquisitions m a it is commonplace in finance to view acquisitions as manifestations of the market for corporate control following on that insight we propose a model of fdi in which headquarters bid to control overseas assets we derive an equation for bilateral fdi stocks that resembles the recently developed fixed effects approach to modelling bilateral trade flows we estimate the model and use its parameters to construct benchmarks for evaluating multilateral inward and outward fdi

analyzing light fuel demand elasticities in brazil using cointegration techniques abstract this study is intended to assess the sensitivity of demand for light fuels in brazil to changes in prices and income considering the unique characteristics of the brazilian fleet the lack of convergence across studies available for the domestic market and its importance in discussions on climate change and national security among others for this purpose the short and long term price and income elasticities of light fuel demand were estimated using cointegration techniques based on an empirical model that incorporates the unique features of the internal market despite the characteristics of the brazilian fleet the results showed that the elasticities found for the national market are similar to those seen in other countries the conceptual framework and empirical analysis that were used also allowed for a better understanding of the differences between the results of studies on demand for gasoline ethanol or natural gas in brazil and those found in the international literature providing key players in the sector with crucial information for designing public policies and business strategies

demand for gasoline in kuwait an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract this paper estimates the demand for gasoline in kuwait for the period 1970 1989 using a cointegration and error correction model ecm it is found that gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run and while it is elastic in the long run gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run this suggests that gasoline demand response to income changes is higher in the long run than in the short run furthermore gasoline consumption adjusts towards its long run level with about 52 of the adjustment occurring in the first year

the effectiveness of gasoline taxation to manage air pollution abstract higher gasoline taxes can be justified because cars cause significant local regional and global air pollution damages this study examines whether charging higher taxes would result in significant emission reductions both experimental survey data and actual behavior in southern california and connecticut are evaluated to explore whether people would change their driving behavior in response to higher gasoline prices both sets of results reveal that drivers are price inelastic in the short run 0 4 to 0 6 and long run 0 5 to 0 7 imposing environmental surcharges on gasoline will result in only a small reduction in driving and thus only a small improvement in the environment such taxes will place a heavy and clear burden on drivers however making gasoline taxes extremely unpopular finally the study finds that the income elasticity of gasoline is low 0 1 0 2 so that the gas tax will fall heavily on the poor

toward a political theory of the emergence of environmental incentive regulation this article makes some steps toward a formal political economy of environmental policy economists quasi unanimous preference for sophisticated incentive regulation is reconsidered we recast the question of instrument choice in the general mechanism design literature within an incomplete contract approach to political economy we show why constitutional constraints on the instruments of environmental policy may be desirable even though they appear inefficient from a standard economic viewpoint their justification lies in the limitations they impose on the politicians ability to distribute rents insights are provided on the emergence of incentive mechanisms in environmental regulation

distributional effects of taxing transport fuel this paper1 takes as its starting point the observation that fuel prices and thus taxes are important for good management of climate change and other environmental problems to economists this should be no surprise yet it seems that the role of fuel taxation as an instrument of climate policy has not been fully appreciated it is however one of the few policy instruments that since several decades has actually reduced fuel consumption appreciably thanks to taxation mainly in europe and japan carbon emissions are considerably lower than they would have been otherwise in future where carbon emissions are to be cut drastically this instrument will be crucial there is however much opposition to the instrument this opposition uses various arguments for instance that fuel taxes hurt the poor since they are strongly regressive we however find that the choice of country and methodology turns out to be of great consequence we study seven european countries france germany united kingdom italy serbia spain and sweden and do find some evidence of regressivity but the evidence is very weak it does not apply when lifetime income is used and it does not apply to the poorest country in the group the best one line summary is probably that the tax is approximately proportional

is demand for polluting goods manageable an econometric study of car ownership and use in mexico abstract our motivation for estimating a demand system for gasoline and cars is its strategic relevance to policy objectives such as pollution control if demand is responsive to pricing demand reductions for polluting goods will provide an important share of the pollution reductions otherwise cleaner technologies will have to do most of the job we estimate a model of gasoline demand and car ownership in mexico using a panel of annual observations by state key features that we introduce include instrumental variables on differenced data and the treatment of possible dynamics measurement errors in the data and unobserved individual state characteristics we use tests of serial correlation in the a residuals to model the dynamics properly the resulting demand system is quite responsive to pricing even in the short term 0 6 for the own price elasticity of gasoline but we emphasize a medium to long term perspective of 5 10 years as most relevant for policy five to ten year elasticity estimates are in the range of 1 25 to 1 13 applying these elasticity estimates to data on pollution control options for the vehicle fleet in mexico city the costs of reaching a target for pollution reductions would be 45 more expensive if one were not willing to use a demand management instrument such a gasoline tax in the control program

fuel taxes an important instrument for climate policy abstract this article shows that fuel taxes serve a very important role for the environment and that we risk a backlash of increased emissions if they are abolished fuel taxes have restrained growth in fuel demand and associated carbon emissions although fuel demand is large and growing our analysis shows that it would have been much higher in the absence of domestic fuel taxes people often assert that fuel demand is inelastic but there is strong research evidence showing the opposite the price elasticity is in fact quite high but only in the long run in the short run it may be quite inelastic which has important implications for policy makers had europe not followed a policy of high fuel taxation but had low us taxes then fuel demand would have been twice as large hypothetical transport demand in the whole oecd area is calculated for various tax scenarios and the results show that fuel taxes are the single most powerful climate policy instrument implemented to date yet this fact is not usually given due attention in the debate

motor vehicle insurance rating with pseudo emissions coverage abstract there is general agreement amongst economists and ecologists that transportation is an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions typical proposals to reduce the demand for transportation and consequently emissions focus on imposing a fuel tax or a direct fee on vehicles this paper outlines the method and advantages of treating the environmental risk as additional pseudo coverage rated under existing property and liability motor vehicle insurance systems

world transport energy demand modelling methodology and elasticities abstract this paper presents the international energy agency s iea approach of modelling transport energy demand fuel demand which is not a demand per se is derived whenever possible from the economic activity in the transport sector and not estimated directly ie using one equation or simultaneous equation system in general the transport models employ a two step approach in the first step transport activity the sector s relevant energy service is estimated econometrically in the second step the transport activity projections are then combined with estimates of efficiency improvements car turnover rates and diesel gasoline penetration assumptions in order to arrive at projections of fuel demand the principal advantages of this approach are that the relevant energy services are modelled and that for model simulation efficiency improvements can be dealt with explicitly the effectiveness of economic instruments is a function of the reaction of consumers and businesses to income and price changes an in depth understanding of income and price elasticities of transport demand and transport energy demand is important in order to be able to assess the effectiveness of policies considered the paper also shows the underlying long term income and price elasticities for oecd and non oecd regions

green commuting and gasoline taxes in the united states abstract this paper analyzes how gasoline tax rates are related to the time workers in the united states spend commuting by private car public transport or with other physical modes of transport our identification strategy relies on both inter state differences and time variations in gasoline taxes using the american time use surveys for the years 2003 2015 we find that higher gasoline tax rates are related to less time spent in commuting furthermore higher gasoline taxes are related to less commuting by private car and more commuting by public transport and or a physical mode of transport walking or cycling our results highlight the importance of gasoline taxes in the consumption of energy for personal transport as higher gasoline taxes are related to a greater use of green modes of transport showing that fuel taxes are important for good environmental management

electricity demand analysis using cointegration and arima modelling a case study of turkey in the early 2000s the republic of turkey has initiated an ambitious reform program in her electricity market which requires privatization liberalization as well as a radical restructuring the most controversial reason behind or justification for recent reforms has been the rapid electricity demand growth that is to say the whole reform process has been a part of the endeavors to avoid the so called energy crisis using cointegration analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average arima modelling the present article focuses on this issue by both providing an electricity demand estimation and forecast and comparing the results with official projections the study concludes first that consumers respond to price and income changes is quite limited and therefore there is a need for economic regulation in turkish electricity market and second that the current official electricity demand projections highly overestimate the electricity demand which may endanger the development of both a coherent energy policy in general and a healthy electricity market in particular

gasoline demand revisited an international meta analysis of elasticities meta analysis is used to determine if there are factors that systematically affect price and income elasticity estimates in studies of gasoline demand four econometric models are estimated using long run and short run price and income elasticity estimates from previous studies as the dependent variables explanatory variables include functional form lag structure time span national setting estimation technique and other features of the model structure elasticity estimates are found to be sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of some measure of vehicle ownership static models appear to overestimate short run elasticities underestimate long run price elasticities but pick up the full long run income responsiveness there is variation in the elasticity of demand across countries especially in the short run and gasoline demand appears to be getting more price elastic and less income elastic over time

a decomposition of the price and income elasticity of the consumer demand for gasoline the authors specify and estimate a model of the short run demand for gasoline which allows them to decompose a consumer s gasoline demand elasticities into miles driven and driving efficiency components their model is estimated using detailed household survey data which allows direct focus on the short run holding both the household s automobile stock and demographic profile fixed among the most interesting results are 1 the data allow interesting insights to be drawn into the interrelationship between these important variables and household behavior with respect to gasoline consumption miles driven and driving efficiency 2 the gasoline demand behavior of one car and multi car households differ significantly from each other evaluated at overall sample means one car households have higher in absolute value price elasticites for gasoline miles driven and fuel efficiency demand conversely multi car households have higher in absolute value total expenditure elasticities for each category 3 for both one car and multi car households roughly 75 of the estimated price elasticity and roughly 80 of the estimated total expenditure elasticity of gasoline demand stem from the miles driven component the estimated fuel efficiency elasticities though smaller than their standard errors indicate that households respond to changes in prices and total expenditure levels not only by changing the number of miles theymore drive but also by changing the efficiency with which they drive them 23 references 3 tables less

an estimation of u s gasoline demand a smooth time varying cointegration approach abstract in this paper the u s gasoline demand from 1976 to 2008 is estimated using a time varying cointegrating regression we find that price elasticity increased rapidly during the late 1970s and then decreased until 1987 after a relatively small scaled increase decrease cycle from 1987 to 2000 the price elasticity rose again after 2000 the time varying change of the elasticities may be explained by the proportion of gasoline consumption to income and fluctuation of the degree of necessity the result of the error correction model shows that a deviation from a long run equilibrium is corrected quickly and the welfare analysis illustrates there may be a gain by shifting the tax scheme from income tax to gasoline tax

the car park diffusion models revisited abstract growth in the car park in two countries the uk and japan is studied with the help of a diffusion model of car ownership the model interprets the complicated dynamics of the car park in particular the transitions between different stages of growth in terms of three effects product diffusion income dispersion and income growth from the insights gained in the analysis a specific parameterized non linear lifecycle model of car ownership is constructed which is of use in the investigation of a range of issues including the impact of social trends and green policies on car ownership

estimates from a consumer demand system implications for the incidence of environmental taxes abstract most studies suggest that environmental taxes are regressive making them less attractive policy options we consider the distributional effects of a gasoline tax increase using four incidence measures and under three scenarios for gas tax revenue use to incorporate behavioral responses we use consumer expenditure survey data to estimate a consumer demand system that includes gasoline other goods and leisure our estimates confirm that when revenues are not recycled a gasoline tax is regressive use of incidence measures that ignore demand responses however will substantially overstate this regressivity in contrast the differences between the equivalent variation and easier to implement consumer surplus measures are relatively small in addition our results suggest that using the additional gas tax revenue to fund labor tax cuts makes the policy substantially less regressive while using the revenue to fund lump sum transfers actually makes it progressive

strategy proof uniform effort sharing schemes for transfrontier pollution problems uniform effort sharing rules for transfrontier pollution problems like the popular equal percentage reduction arrangement do not result in a cost efficient allocation of emission abatement efforts in addition they may violate voluntary participation constraints if the uniform effort level is decided upon by means of ordinary majority vote in contrast to ordinary majority vote i consider in this paper the so called conservative mechanism by moulin 1994 which picks the smallest revealed effort level in stead of the median the conservative mechanism always respects a weak participation constraint moreover it is coalitionally strategy proof meaning that no individual player or group of players can achieve a better outcome by misrepresenting its preferences for environmental quality in order to remedy the cost inefficiency of the equal percentage arrangements i propose to apply the conservative mechanism to the choice of a uniform emission tax rate simulations for the greenhouse effect indicate that the latter mechanism does considerably better than the traditional equal percentage arrangement

demand for gasoline in the gcc an application of pooling and testing procedures the structure of gasoline demand in the gcc countries was analysed the aim was to estimate price and income elasticities both for the short and long run it was found that gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to both price and income for both the short and long run when gcc countries were divided into two groups based on their pricing policies it was found that the group with the free market approach and higher reliance on market forces gave larger price elasticities and smaller income elasticities in both the short run and long run

a meta analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand abstract price elasticities of energy demand have become increasingly relevant in estimating the socio economic and environmental effects of energy policies or other events that influence the price of energy goods since the 1970s a large number of academic papers have provided both short and long term price elasticity estimates for different countries using several models data and estimation techniques yet the literature offers a rather wide range of estimates for the price elasticities of demand for energy this paper quantitatively summarizes the recent but sizeable empirical evidence to facilitate a sounder economic assessment of in some cases policy related energy price changes it uses meta analysis to identify the main factors affecting short and long term elasticity results for energy in general as well as for specific products i e electricity natural gas gasoline diesel and heating oil

coordination of environmental policy for transboundary environmental problems abstract in order to reach a pareto optimal outcome with transboundary environmental problems there must be some kind of international environmental agreement one possibility is to have an international environmental agreement focusing directly on emissions in each country given such an agreement an important issue is whether one ought to supplement the agreement with some kind of policy coordination or if the choice of environmental policies should be left to each country to decide on unilaterally it is shown that under ideal conditions pareto optimality will be achieved without policies being coordinated across countries such ideal conditions include among other things that all markets including the labour market are competitive however if one has imperfect competition in goods markets or unemployment decentralized policy making may give an outcome which is not pareto optimal

the empirical effects of a gasoline tax on co2 emissions reductions from transportation sector in korea the introduction of carbon tax is expected to mitigate ghg emissions cost effectively with this expectation identifying the impacts of carbon tax on energy demand and ghg emission reductions is an interesting issue one of the basic methods of estimating these impacts is using the price elasticity there are however some unanswered questions regarding the use of price elasticity first which elasticity estimates are appropriate to measure the impacts of carbon tax on energy demand the existing estimates are estimated in the presence of a substitute to assess the impact of carbon tax could we use these estimates second how can we compromise the differences among the existing estimates depending on estimation methods and specifications for example how can we accommodate the difference in the estimates from the regional panel specification and the aggregate specification this paper tries to answer these questions with the price elasticity of gasoline demand with an appropriate price elasticity we show how much gasoline consumption and ghg emissions are reduced by carbon tax for different scenarios of carbon tax rate

quasi experimental taxation elasticities of us gasoline demand abstract taxation elasticities provide useful inputs in public policy aimed at raising revenues using the quasi experimental method this paper calculates gasoline taxation elasticities for the usa over 1952 1986 the median mean elasticity over this period is found to be 0 075 0 122 however the elasticity following the oil shock of 1973 is found to be statistically different from the pre shock elasticity reasons for this change in elasticity are discussed the implication of this analysis is that tax policies based on price elasticities rather than on tax elasticities might be using an inappropriate elasticity estimate and consequently misinterpreting the government s ability to raise tax revenues especially in the post embargo era

horizontal and vertical indirect tax competition theory and some evidence from the usa this paper provides a simple theoretical framework for analysing simultaneous vertical and horizontal competition in excise taxes and estimates equations informed by the theory on a panel of us state and federal excise taxes on cigarettes and gasoline we also examine the role played by smuggling the results are generally consistent with the theory when the characteristics of the markets for the goods are taken into account for neither good do federal excise taxes affect state taxes taxes in neighbouring states have a significant and large effect in the case of cigarettes and a much weaker effect in the case of gasoline we also find that in the setting of cigarette taxes concerns about cross border shopping play a more important role than concerns about smuggling

an empirical analysis of gasoline demand in denmark using cointegration techniques abstract danish time series data covering the period 1948 1991 are used in order to estimate short run and long run elasticities in gasoline demand a cointegration test for a stable long run relationship between the variables in the model proves to be positive showing a smaller value of the long run price elasticity than often quoted in empirical studies of gasoline demand finally an error correction model is estimated

gasoline consumption and the stock of motor vehicles an empirical analysis for the swiss economy abstract the demand for gasoline and the stock of cars is empirically explained for the swiss economy by applying statistical methods from modern time series analysis to annual data over the period 1962 1985 the short run price and income elasticities of gasoline consumption are 0 3 to 0 45 and 0 7 the price elasticity became substantially higher after the first opec shock in 1973 pollution control measures introduced in 1982 negatively affected the stock of cars longer run effects operating over changes in the size of the stock and the fuel efficiency of cars are stretched out over several years as shown by a variety of simulation experiments

long run gasoline demand for passenger cars the role of income distribution it is commonly agreed that the level of income and prices are crucial determinants of the consumption of motor gasoline the respective long run price and income elasticities are regularly calculated using cross sectional models despite the acknowledgement of the role of income distribution it plays no role in intercountry cross sectional models this is due to a lack of appropriate data this paper shows that the omission of distributional characteristics provides misleading elasticities using available distributional measures this paper is referring to an income threshold which is crucial to the acquisition of an automobile it is shown that on the one hand in poor countries an unequal income distribution is needed to enable at least some people to buy automobiles on the other hand in wealthy countries an unequal income distribution would exclude some people from acquiring automobiles hence depending on the income level inequality has a diverging impact on the ability to buy durable goods the second part of this paper develops a pooled 90 country model to examine this approach empirically it could be shown that distribution variables are highly significant to explain the demand for automobiles and motor gasoline moreover the consideration of the distribution of income leads to a considerable decrease in income elasticity values this is mainly due to the positive correlation between income level and income equality within the sample

granular institutional investors and global market interdependence we study the propagation of global investment risk across markets through the granular view of institutional investors applying the conditional value at risk estimation to micro level weekly observations of international mutual funds between 2003 and 2011 we find that idiosyncratic shocks to large institutional investors explain both aggregate market risk and cross market risk interdependence conditional on the us capital markets being in financial distress idiosyncratic shocks to the top 10 largest funds investing in the us explain about 40 of the risk fluctuations in other non us markets the findings are also economically and statistically significant for the top largest funds investing in non us markets with the effects becoming especially large during the global financial crisis of 2007 09 these results are robust after controlling for common risk factors and applying alternative measures of idiosyncratic shocks

the demand for gasoline in south africa an empirical analysis using co integration techniques abstract using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag ardl bound testing approach to co integration suggested by pesaran et al pesaran m h shin y smith r j bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 2001 16 3 289 326 we empirically analyzed the long run relationship among the variables in the aggregate gasoline demand function over the period 1978 2005 our study confirms the existence of a co integrating relationship the estimated price and income elasticities of 0 47 and 0 36 imply that gasoline demand in south africa is price and income inelastic

the demand for petrol with explicit new car fuel efficiency effects a uk study 1977 86 abstract a full quarterly model for the demand for petrol motor gasoline is presented which deals with problems of seasonality in price and volume it is shown that the annual new car fuel consumption rate can be incorporated in modelling demand for petrol and this allows a better representation of the structure and mean speed of response of demand to price effects by separately specifying a new car fuel parameter the estimated short run price elasticity is 0 18 after three months rising to 0 2 after a year without such specification the elasticity reduces to 0 14 after three months 0 12 after a year the difference is discussed and interpreted as compensation due to the new car effect the new model year car fuel elasticity is defined and found to be about 0 1 in the sense that a 10 decrease in l 100 km 10 increase in efficiency over the previous model year decreases total petrol demand by 1 by endogenizing both petrol price and volume in a simultaneous system it is possible to identify a supply model for petrol volume in terms of the now endogenous petrol price to give a long run supply elasticity of about 0 4

modeling gasoline demand in the united states a flexible semiparametric approach abstract the focus of this paper is on the modeling and estimation of quarterly state level gasoline demand in the united states the existing literature may not appropriately evaluate the price elasticity and income elasticity of gasoline demand most studies fail to address the possible heterogeneity in gasoline demand elasticities that may arise from a variety of sources the endogeneity issue of gasoline price has remained redundant throughout the literature i address these challenges using a flexible demand model and a recently developed estimation technique the econometric approach allows for functional coefficients to accommodate the heterogeneity in demand elasticities several instrumental variables are used to investigate the endogeneity of gasoline price the estimation results provide strong evidence of heterogeneous gasoline demand elasticities across states and over time some state level attributes along with income and macroeconomic shocks are the potential sources of heterogeneity

between ostrom and nordhaus the research landscape of sustainability economics abstract we survey the emerging research area of sustainability economics through a quantitative full text analysis of peer reviewed journal publications from 1987 to 2013 to identify relevant contributions we draw on existing definitions of sustainability economics for a keyword based identification strategy a combined focus on a the human nature relationship b the long term uncertain future c normative orientation towards sustainability and d economic analysis our analysis of a random subsample of 343 relevant papers reveals that i sustainability economics is a rapidly developing research area ii while theoretical contributions shaped the area in earlier years applied work now constitutes the largest share of contributions iii the research landscape can be clustered into eleven research clusters these range from participatory governance of social ecological systems associated with the work of elinor ostrom to questions of intertemporal allocation and distribution applied to climate economics associated with the work of william nordhaus iv the research area is broad in scope and heterogeneous and there is relatively little interaction between important clusters v relevant contributions are published in more than 100 journals ten journals publish half of all contributions led by ecological economics and 40 appear in non economics journals underscoring the importance of interdisciplinary dialogue

zipf s law for cities an explanation zipf s law is a very tight constraint on the class of admissible models of local growth it says that for most countries the size distribution of cities strikingly fits a power law the number of cities with populations greater than s is proportional to 1 s suppose that at least in the upper tail all cities follow some proportional growth process this appears to be verified empirically this automatically leads their distribution to converge to zipf s law

concentration indices and zipf s law abstract the relationships between zipf s law a relevant model for the firms size and the financial investment amounts and the major concentration indices are derived the hirschman herfindahl index is the most sensitive index in contexts where zipf s law applies

the politics of international regime formation managing natural resources and the environment why do actors in international society succeed in forming institutional arrangements or regimes to cope with some transboundary problems but fail to do so in connection with other seemingly similar problems this article employs a threefold strategy to make progress toward answering this question the first section prepares the ground by identifying and critiquing the principal models embedded in the existing literature on regime formation and the second section articulates an alternative model called institutional bargaining the third section employs this alternative model to derive some hypotheses about the determinants of success in institutional bargaining and uses these hypotheses in a preliminary way to illuminate the process of regime formation in international society to lend empirical content to the argument the article focuses throughout on problems relating to natural resources and the environment

comparative politics and environmental taxation abstract in this paper we take a step towards understanding the role of democratic institutions on the level of pollution taxation persson et al j polit economy 108 2000 1121 argue that presidential congressional regimes set lower taxes than parliamentary regimes this conclusion results from the checks and balances built into the former and the higher degree of legislative cohesion in the latter we test this prediction on gasoline and diesel prices using the method of propensity score matching along with data from 86 democratic countries the empirical evidence is consonant with the theory we find that ceteris paribus the average price of super gasoline is 0 14 0 20 less per liter in presidential congressional systems the average price of diesel gasoline is 0 11 0 14 less per liter

rational habits in gasoline demand abstract the dynamics of demand for energy goods such as gasoline are complicated by investment decisions and behavioral habits both types of complication can be captured by a habits model in which past consumption enters into an agent s current utility function if the agent is forward looking or rational then habits imply his consumption of the habit forming good will be sensitive to his expectation of future market conditions in particular future prices this sensitivity implies in turn that traditional measures of price elasticity will underproject consumers responsiveness to policy interventions this paper examines the implications of rational habits on gasoline demand using a simple model encompassing myopic and rational habits i demonstrate that an agent with rational habits will respond to anticipated future price changes and react more strongly to permanent than to temporary price changes with this distinction increasing in the strength of the habit i then estimate several habits models using panel data on u s states for the years 1989 through 2008 my preferred specification yields evidence of rational habits and moreover i find consumers to be twice as responsive to tax driven price changes as to market driven price changes taxes and other policies that operate through the gasoline price are a more powerful policy instrument than traditional price elasticity would lead us to believe

the optimal gas tax for california this paper calculates the optimal gasoline tax for the state of california according to our analysis the optimal gasoline tax in california is 1 37 gal which is over three times the current california tax when excluding sales taxes the pigovian tax is the largest part of this tax comprising 0 85 gal of this the congestion externality is taxed the most heavily at 0 27 followed by oil security accident externalities local air pollution and finally global climate change the other major component a ramsey tax comprises a full 0 52 of this tax reflecting the efficiency in raising revenues from a tax on gasoline consumption due to the inelastic demand of this consumption good

the role of efficiency improvements vs price effects for modeling passenger car transport demand and energy demand lessons from european countries abstract the objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of changes in fuel prices and fuel intensity i e liters of fuel used per 100 kilometers on overall fuel gasoline and diesel consumption and on the demand for vehicle km driven in car passenger transport this is important for deriving effective policy portfolios consisting of fuel taxes and technical standards such as fuel intensity mandates or specific co 2 emission limits to extract these impacts we apply cointegration analyses to six european countries and their aggregate over the period 1970 2007 we consider the impact of fuel prices household income and fuel intensity on fuel consumption furthermore we investigate how changes in fuel prices and fuel intensity interact analyzing the rebound effect due to lower fuel intensity and due to the switch to diesel because we find a high rebound effect with 44 more km driven if fuel intensity is improved 100 the major conclusion of our analysis for policy makers is that technical standards as the only policy instrument will have limited success rather we recommend increased fuel taxes along with fuel intensity standards so that the taxes compensate for the rebound due to the standards

how much can co2 emissions be reduced if fossil fuel subsidies are removed abstract this paper analyzes consumers price elasticities of demand for fossil fuels and how a reduction of fossil fuel subsidies can lead to important reduction in co 2 emissions for various groups of countries that have relatively high fossil fuel subsidies and notably on diesel including countries in the middle east and north africa mena these countries continue to maintain significant levels of fuel subsidies with iran and saudi arabia being the largest contributors to co 2 emissions this paper illustrates that fuel price policy reforms by these countries would be an important instrument for both climate and economic policies we estimate that a reduction in subsidies to both gasoline and diesel by about 20 us cents per liter will lead to significant decreases in co 2 emissions both in the mena region and globally in iran for example the reductions could be up to 90 and 50 of current emissions generated from diesel and gasoline consumption respectively and for saudi arabia approximately 70 and 40 respectively

the effect of bottle laws on income new empirical results eleven us states have bottle laws deposit refund programs that combine a consumption tax with a recycling rebate when states set the bottle deposit low enough it becomes a tax on high wage earners for whom the opportunity cost of their time prevents them from returning containers for their deposit however this bottle deposit will still be high enough that harvesting recyclables provides employment for low wage earners using individual data on observed cash recycling behavior this paper shows that an unintended consequence of bottle laws is that they have the potential to increase the incomes of very low wage workers

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

on the variable elasticity of the demand for gasoline the case of the usa this paper tests the variable elasticity of the demand for gasoline by applying the well known box cox extended autoregressive bcea model of savin and white this model can simultaneously test for functional form and autocorrelation in a time series regression major findings are the log linear form chosen a priori in most of previous studies can be rejected in favour of the bcea model long run price elasticities varied from 1 118 in 1973 to 0 290 in 1981 and long run income elasticities declined consistently from 0 944 in 1960 to 0 452 in 1985 these findings have policy implications for more accurate forecast of gasoline demand gasoline taxes energy conservation and others

revealed and stated preferences for co2 emissions reduction the missing link abstract in this paper we combine data collected from two strands of literature dealing with revealed preferences expressed by conventional vehicle drivers for fuel price variation and stated preferences expressed by consumers for alternative fuel vehicles we employ a meta analysis approach drawing data on 30 primary studies reflecting two important policy interventions which are fuel price taxation and subsidies for alternative fuel vehicles this is a new contribution in environmental and energy economics in that we rescale all primary information into a unique index which captures consumers economic attitude towards carbon dioxide co2 emission reduction in monetary terms focusing on the transport sector we compute the implicit price for the avoidance of a kilogram of co2 emissions named pco2 explaining the existing heterogeneity from several points of view the results of the meta analysis show that contextual and individual characteristics influence the implicit price for co2 emissions avoidance this implicit price is on average positive in the case of revealed preferences studies whereas it is negative in the stated preferences studies although there are some important geographical differences our results show that fuel taxes could be an important additional instrument for environmental policy

estimating the effect of urban density on fuel demand much of the empirical literature on fuel demand presents estimates derived from national data which do not permit any explicit consideration of the spatial structure of the economy intuitively we would expect the degree of spatial concentration of activities to have a strong link with transport fuel consumption the present paper addresses this theme by estimating a fuel demand model for urban areas to provide a direct estimate of the elasticity of demand with respect to urban density fuel demand per capita is decomposed into car stock per capita fuel consumption per kilometre and annual distance driven per car per year urban density is found to affect fuel consumption mostly through variations in the car stock and in the distances travelled rather than through fuel consumption per kilometre

the taxation of drivers and the choice of car fuel type in this paper the choice of the car fuel type is studied in the dutch situation three types are important gasoline diesel and lpg with 80 of the cars using gasoline incentives for using diesel or lpg are provided by the tax system that implies higher fixed cost but lower variable cost for users of these fuel types we start by studying fuel type choice on the basis of a logit model and move on to estimate demand functions for kilometres driven for social purposes while correcting for the possible selectivity bias we find that diesel and lpg are in general regarded as inferior alternatives but that monetary incentives are sufficiently strong to overcome this hurdle for drivers with a large demand for kilometres we also find that there are significant effects of the lower variable cost for diesel and lpg drivers on their demand for kilometres the conclusions are confirmed by estimation of a structural model in which fuel type choice and demand for kilometres are consistently explained on the basis of one set of preferences and unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account

gasoline demand in the oecd an application of pooling and testing procedures abstract this study utilizes a pooled inter country data set finding the long run price elasticity falls in the range 0 55 to 0 9 depending on the choice of pooled estimators the estimators included the ols within and between country estimators plus five feasible gls estimators even allowing for a ten year distributed lag on price to reflect changes in auto efficiency characteristics the within country estimator yields appreciably more inelastic estimates than did the o s estimator which was heavily influenced by the between or inter country variation this difference raises intriguing questions for future research

estimating the demand for gasoline in developing countries senegal abstract this paper estimates the aggregate demand for gasoline in senegal from 1970 to 2008 the long term and short term elasticities of demand with respect to gasoline prices and income are of paramount interest in this study in senegal rising food prices unemployment and shortage of electric supply are always associated with the spiking cost of world oil prices to understand the external shocks of world oil price and demand for gasoline in senegal this study tested a log linear model against the linear model of the demand for oil function with lagged dependent variables as an explanatory variable here the linear specification of the demand for oil is rejected in this study in favor of the log linear the natural log transformation is typical when using high frequency data and significantly reduces skewness and kurtosis generally in this study i found that short run elasticity is smaller than long run elasticity and gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to both price and income for both the short and long runs in senegal this is why researcher like moosa posits that this assertion can be rationalised on the grounds that oil is such an important commodity that does not have close substitutes at least for its uses 1998 p 3

a meta analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand a sur approach abstract automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency mileage per car and car ownership this implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency mileage per car and car ownership in this meta analytical study we aim to investigate and explain the variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of gasoline demand a methodological novelty is that we use the linear relationship between the elasticities to develop a meta analytical estimation approach based on a seemingly unrelated regression sur model with cross equation restrictions this approach enables us to combine observations of different elasticities and thus increase our sample size furthermore it allows for a more detailed interpretation of our meta regression results the empirical results of the study demonstrate that the sur approach leads to more precise results i e lower standard errors than a standard meta analytical approach we find that with mean short run and long run price elasticities of 0 34 and 0 84 respectively the demand for gasoline is not very price sensitive both in the short and the long run the impact of a change in the gasoline price on demand is mainly driven by responses in fuel efficiency and mileage per car and to a slightly lesser degree by changes in car ownership furthermore we find that study characteristics relating to the geographic area studied the year of the study the type of data used the time horizon and the functional specification of the demand equation have a significant impact on the estimated value of the price elasticity of gasoline demand

fuel consumption for road transport in quebec abstract an econometric model of fuel demand for road transport is developed and is applied to provincial level both the short term and long term elasticities have been computed we find that gasoline demand in quebec is captive and is strongly dependent on provincial economy the recent slack in demand was mainly due to recession

nash implementation of a proportional solution to international pollution control problems abstract for a very general class of pollution control models involving strictly quasi concave utility functions over consumption and environmental quality and strictly convex emission abatement cost functions a proportional cost sharing mechanism is presented inspired by the ratio equilibrium introduced by 7 it is shown that the proportional solution yields a cost efficient allocation of abatement efforts and that the resulting utility imputation always lies in the stand alone core of the cost sharing game in order to decentralize the proportional cost sharing equilibrium a financial compensation mechanism implementing the proportional solution in complete information nash equilibrium is presented

international environmental agreements the case of costly monetary transfers most existing international environmental agreements to resolve transboundary pollution problems appear constrained in the sense that either monetary transfers accompany uniform abatement standards agreements based on a uniform standard with monetary transfers or differentiated abatement standards are established but without monetary transfers agreements based on differentiated standards for two asymmetric countries facing the challenge of a transboundary pollution problem we compare the relative efficiency of these two second best agreements we study especially the role of the costs associated with transfer payments across countries in the choice of these agreements to conduct this analysis we use a negotiation game and the generalized nash bargaining solution nash in econometrica 21 128 140 1953 as the equilibrium for total welfare our findings show that countries collectively prefer the uniform to the differentiated agreement if the cost of transfers is sufficiently low compared to the ratio for countries of the difference of the abatement costs between the two agreements in the analysis of individual welfare we also discuss the reluctance of one country to sign a specific type of agreement even if it is better off than in the case of non cooperation

gasoline demand the case of saudi arabia this paper specifies a partial adjustment model to estimate the demand for gasoline in saudi arabia for the period 1970 1985 it is found that the demand for gasoline is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run as compared to other countries the kingdom s gasoline demand elasticities more closely resemble those of industrial countries

the demand for gasoline a comment on the cross section analysis by drollas abstract a recent article 1 used data for 1977 from different countries to estimate the long run price elasticity of demand for gasoline some aspects can be criticized particularly the interpretation of the results and the model used an alternative is developed which accepts that the key factor influencing gasoline consumption is the stock of cars however energy use per car will vary depending on the size of the country and its average income and price of fuel this model gives a non linear equation which is estimated using the same data all the coefficients are significant with the price elasticity being inelastic

stochastic analysis of a shale gas investment strategy for coping with production uncertainties abstract the soaring demand for natural gas and deteriorating environmental conditions in recent years have together created a significant incentive for china to develop shale gas exploration in this endeavor production capacity is a major uncertainty that substantially affects the net investment return we propose a markov decision process model to explore and determine the desirable investment strategy under such uncertainty our model has the advantage of being able to handle dynamic stochastic market states and it considers not only the value of the project itself net cash flow but also the social welfare environmental cost and financial subsidy our objective is to maximize the long run expected return of investment the methodology was applied to determine the investment strategy for a case study in china we found that the project is feasible only when the production capacity is larger than 8 55 billion cubic meters additional shale gas supply may generate higher sales revenue however the benefits may be neutralized by the decrease in price when domestic demand is inelastic to price we also found that financial subsidy is an effective incentive for shale gas investment because it significantly increases the expected return of investment

comparing alternative policies to reduce traffic accidents abstract this paper derives and implements formulas for the welfare effects of uniform mileage taxes gasoline taxes per mile insurance premiums and mileage taxes differentiated across vehicle and driver groups for reducing the external costs of passenger vehicle accidents the average external accident cost is estimated at 2 2 6 6 cents per mile accidents costs differ substantially across driver groups but only moderately across vehicles groups annual welfare gains from a mileage tax equal to marginal external costs for each driver vehicle group are 9 4 billion in the benchmark case the uniform mileage tax and per mile insurance reform can achieve 76 and 65 of this welfare gain respectively while the gasoline tax can achieve only 28 of the welfare gain unlike other policies the gasoline tax induces costly improvements in average fleet fuel economy that have little effect on reducing external costs

automobile externalities and policies this paper discusses the nature and magnitude of externalities associated with automobile use including local and global pollution oil dependence traffic congestion and traffic accidents it then discusses current federal policies affecting these externalities including fuel taxes fuel economy and emissions standards and alternative fuel policies summarizing insofar as possible the welfare effects of those policies finally we discuss emerging pricing policies including congestion tolls and insurance reform and summarize the appropriate combination of policies to address automobile externalities

light fuel demand and public policies in brazil 2003 2013 abstractthe main objective of this article is to evaluate determinants of demand for light fuels in brazil between 2003 and 2013 through a vector autoregression analysis an effort was made to identify and quantify the impact of different economic variables and public policy measures adopted during this period on the surprising increase in energy consumption by brazil s light vehicle fleet the results suggest that demand for energy by the light vehicle fleet was influenced by an increase in income by a decrease in fuel prices associated with a policy designed to prevent increases in the price of gasoline from pushing the inflation rate up by a higher availability of credit for buying vehicles and by a drop in the real price of those goods with emphasis on countercyclical measures to waive the tax on industrialized products levied on new vehicles during economic downturns in the automotive industry

demand for oil products in the gcc countries abstract the purpose of this study is to estimate the price and income elasticities of oil products demand in the gcc countries annual data spanning the period 1970 1991 were fitted to a partial adjustment model to obtain the estimates the main finding of the study is that both price and income are relatively inelastic in the short run and there has been a great variation in these elasticities among fuels and cross country

are uniform solutions focal the case of international environmental agreements the application of uniform solutions has several drawbacks notably their lack of cost efficiency and their inability to guarantee individual rationality a proper specification of uniform solutions however reveals that uniform solutions that satisfy individual rationality always exist when all countries hold private information about their own reduction costs there only exists one solution that always satisfies individually rationality without use of side payments and the requirement of dominant strategy implementation the solution that selects the smallest individually preferred uniform reduction which also give a theoretical explanation of the lowest common denominator effect

modeling the impact of a carbon tax a trial analysis for washington state abstract in recent years energy policy makers have proposed a carbon tax as an economy wide policy tool to curb greenhouse gas ghg emissions the quantification of its impact on ghg emissions has relied on an energy economy model whose complexity often makes it difficult to comprehend how it simulates the interaction of a carbon tax and energy demand this study therefore aims at developing an alternative model called the carbon tax analysis model c tam the elasticity based approach used in c tam is less sophisticated than an equilibrium based approach used in an energy economy model but c tam is designed to maximize its predictive capabilities by using a wide range of elasticities for each sector and fuel use accounting for likely changes in fuel mix for electricity generation and addressing the model s sensitivity to elasticity estimates with monte carlo simulation the trial analysis in this study evaluates a potential carbon tax in washington state suggesting a carbon tax at us 30 per metric ton of co 2 tco 2 lowers ghg emissions by 8 4 from the business as usual bau scenario in 2035 the study concludes that c tam can provide meaningful policy implications by forecasting detailed impact on revenues and energy demand for each sector and fuel use

world crude oil and natural gas a demand and supply model abstract this paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918 1999 it analyzes the time series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918 1973 and 1973 1999 oil and gas prices were stable during the first period they became volatile afterwards reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973 demand price elasticities were too low however demand income elasticities were high supply price elasticities were also too low the elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

estimating individual driving distance by car and public transport use in sweden how much to drive and how much to use public transport are modelled as three and two level decisions respectively based on micro data for sweden the choices whether to have a car whether to drive given access to a car and how much to drive given that the individual drives at all are then estimated using a three equation model also after correcting for other variables such as income men are driving much more and using less public transport compared to women people living in big cities are less likely to drive but those who do are on average driving about as much as others age and access to company cars are also important determinants for travel behaviour but being a member of an environmental organization is not driving increases with income but to a lower degree compared to most aggregated studies on national level the difference is explained in a model with income dependent structural changes implying that it becomes more difficult to live without a car when average income increases

international environmental problems a simple taxonomy of international environmental problems is developed based on economic considerations the unidirectional externalities are illustrated by the case of one upstream and one downstream country the main problem in this case is an informational one the analysis of regional reciprocal externalities is illustrated by the acid rains in europe it is shown that an efficient solution could be achieved by transferable export rights finally global external problems are discussed with reference to greenhouse effects and extinction of species copyright 1990 by oxford university press

distributional effects of alternative vehicle pollution control policies abstract previous work shows that policies that subsidize new vehicles and tax size miles or gasoline efficiently reduce pollution less is known about their distributional effects this paper examines distributional effects by estimating the joint demand for vehicles and miles using the consumer expenditure survey greater price responsiveness among low income households enhances progressivity of gas or miles taxes across lower incomes and mitigates regressivity across upper incomes taxes on engine size or subsidies to new vehicles are significantly more regressive than gas or miles taxes

the pareto zipf and other power laws abstract many empirical size distributions in economics and elsewhere exhibit power law behaviour in the upper tail this article contains a simple explanation for this it also predicts lower tail power law behaviour which is verified empirically for income and city size data