the rotten kid theorem meets the samaritan s dilemma a familiar result in the economic theory of the family is becker s rotten kid theorem this theorem states that altruism by a family member will lead other selfish members to act efficiently from the family viewpoint we extend becker s one period model to two periods and show that parental altruism can result in an inefficiency known in other contexts as the samaritan s dilemma implications of this for transfer arrangements within the family and for the ricardian equivalence theorem are drawn

changing inequality in markets for workplace amenities among u s industries where earnings rose relatively from 1979 1995 injury rates declined relatively obversely during the 1960s narrowing interindustry wage differentials were associated with an increase in the relative risk of injury in high wage industries evidence from the nlsy suggests similar results among full time workers between 1988 and 1996 between 1973 and 1991 the disamenity of evening night work was increasingly borne by low wage male workers changing earnings inequality has understated changing inequality in the returns to work assuming skill neutral changes in the cost of reducing these disamenities estimates of the implied income elasticities of demand for amenities are well above unity

can labor market policies reduce deaths of despair do minimum wages and the earned income tax credit eitc mitigate rising deaths of despair we leverage state variation in these policies over time to estimate event study and difference in differences models of deaths due to drug overdose suicide and alcohol related causes our causal models find no significant effects on drug or alcohol related mortality but do find significant reductions in non drug suicides a 10 percent minimum wage increase reduces non drug suicides among low educated adults by 2 7 percent and the comparable eitc figure is 3 0 percent placebo tests and event study models support our causal research design increasing both policies by 10 percent would likely prevent a combined total of more than 700 suicides each year

unemployment and effort at work we measure the sensitivity of work effort to local labour market conditions using self reported non work at the workplace in the american time use survey atus 2003 12 non work at work is quantitatively significant and varies positively with local unemployment but in opposite directions at the extensive and intensive margins the fraction of workers reporting positive values declines with unemployment while time spent in non work conditional on any such time rises with unemployment the results speak to issues of labour hoarding efficiency wages and the cyclicality of labour productivity we also demonstrate a relationship between the incidence of non work and unemployment benefits in state data linked to the atus there are also pronounced occupational differences in the incidence and intensity of non work

the highs and lows of the minimum wage effect a time series cross section study of the canadian law we examine the effects of minimum wage legislation in canada over the period 1975 93 for teenagers we find that a 10 increase in the minimum wage is associated with roughly a 2 5 decrease in employment we also find that this result is driven by low frequency variation in the data at high frequencies the elasticity is positive and insignificant the difference in the elasticity across the bandwidth has implications for the interpretation of employment dynamics as a result of minimum wage policy and experimental design in minimum wage studies it also provides a simple reconciliation of the new minimum wage research which reports very small negative or positive elasticities

state alcohol policies teen drinking and traffic fatalities this empirical study evaluates the policy responsiveness of teen drinking in models that can condition on the unobserved state specific attributes that may have biased conventional evaluations the results demonstrate that cross state heterogeneity can be important and that beer taxes have relatively small and statistically insignificant effects on teen drinking models of youth traffic fatalities also indicate that the conventional beer tax elasticities are not robust to additional controls for omitted variables the importance of these omitted variables is illustrated by a counterfactual which compares models of nighttime fatalities to those that occur in the daytime when the rate of alcohol involvement is substantially lower

labor supply elasticities overcoming nonclassical measurement error using more accurate hours data we measure the impact of measurement error in labor supply elasticities estimated over recalled usual work hours as is ubiquitous in the literature we employ data on hours of work in diaries collected by the american time use survey 2003 2015 along with the same respondents recalled usual work hours estimates using the latter yield elasticities that are positively biased we argue that this bias arises from the salient effects of differences in wage rates on recalled hours abstract from author

transfer behavior in the health and retirement study measurement and the redistribution of resources within the family recent work by a number of economists has opened a debate about the role played by intergenerational transfers using the new health and retirement study hrs we are better able to address the issues involved contrary to the current literature on bequests we do not find that parents give transfers equally to all children rather we find that in the case of inter vivos transfers respondents give greaterfinancial assistance to their less well off children than to their children with higher incomes financial transfers to elderly parents are also found to be negatively related to the potential recipient s income these results hold both for the incidence of transfers and for the amounts in addition we allow for unobserved differences across families by estimating fixed effect models and find our results to be robust to these specifications a comparison of the hrs transfer data to other survey data demonstrates that the hrs is potentially quite useful for research on transfer behavior

the effects of minimum wages on wage dispersion and employment evidence from the u k wages councils using data on wages council coverage from the united kingdom new earnings survey the authors examine the impact of mandated minimum wages on wage dispersion and employment in the united kingdom in the 1980s they find evidence that a dramatic decline in the toughness of the regulation imposed by the wages councils through the 1980s a decline that is in the level of the minimum wage relative to the average wage significantly contributed to widening wage dispersion over those years there is however no evidence of an increase in employment resulting from the weakening bite of the wages council minimum pay rates instead consistent with the conclusions of several recent u s studies the findings suggest that the minimum wage had either no effect or a positive effect on employment

who minimum wage increases bite an analysis using monthly data from the sipp and the cps 1 introduction neoclassical competitive models of firm behavior predict that wage increases reduce the quantity of labor demanded by firms and holding the wage rate constant that the least valued workers are the first fired or the last hired minimum wage legislation exogenously increases the price of labor and data from periods when the minimum wage changes can be used to empirically test its effect on the employment of vulnerable workers however a new body of research using such data suggests that minimum wage increases do not reduce employment and may even increase it card 1992a b katz and krueger 1992 card katz and krueger 1994 card and krueger 1994 1995 from a theoretical perspective this new economics of the minimum wage has been characterized as an assault on the law of demand ehrenberg 1995 if modest increases in the minimum wage have no employment effects then the appropriateness of this method in helping the working poor is strictly a distributional issue 2 however if minimum wage increases reduce employment and if the jobs lost are concentrated among the vulnerable groups the policy claims to assist then policy makers must consider this unintended consequence hence estimating the elasticity of employment with respect to minimum wage increases is more than simply an empirical test of economic theory in this paper we use monthly data from the survey of income and program participation sipp and the current population survey cps to examine the effect of raising the minimum wage on employment in contrast to much of the new minimum wage literature we find that minimum wage increases significantly reduce employment moreover we find that the elasticity of demand for labor with respect to increases in the minimum wage is greatest for the most vulnerable groups in the working age population young adults who have low levels of education young black adults and teenagers and teenagers we also find that minimum wage increases reduce the overall employment of young adults and teenagers though the estimated elasticities are smaller 2 the new economics of the minimum wage the new minimum wage literature is dominated by studies that find that minimum wage increases have an insignificant or in some cases a positive and significant effect on the employment of young adults and teenagers aged 16 24 or on other subgroups within that population card 1992a b katz and krueger 1992 card katz and krueger 1994 card and krueger 1994 1995 most of these studies have now generated replies arguing that raising the minimum wage significantly decreases employment in these populations neumark and wascher 1992 1994 1996 in press deere murphy and welch 1995 taylor and kim 1995 burkhauser couch and wittenburg in press because these new studies of the minimum wage vary widely in their techniques we focus our discussion on those that use cps data and employ an estimation strategy related to the one we use in this paper neumark and wascher 1992 1994 1996 card katz and krueger 1994 card and krueger 1995 deere murphy and welch 1995 burkhauser couch and wittenburg in press 3 specifically we review studies that use a pooled time series cross sectional approach to estimate the employment effects of minimum wage increases on vulnerable groups such as teenagers with cps data deere murphy and welch 1995 also use pooled repeated cross sectional data from the cps to estimate the impact of minimum wage increases but their specification differs in some important ways from the studies discussed above deere murphy and welch 1995 estimate the effect of minimum wage increases over the period from 1985 through 1993 they construct intervals of monthly data from 1985 through 1993 that begin on the first day of april of each year and end on the last day of match during the following year for each interval they create annual averages of variables

from the fringe to the fore labor unions and employee compensation conventional wisdom suggests that labor unions raise worker wages while the newer empirical literature finds only negligible earnings effects i reconcile this apparent contradiction by arguing th

minimum wages and alcohol related traffic fatalities among teens abstract using cross state variation in minimum wages we observe a positive relationship between the minimum wage and the number of alcohol related accidents involving teen drivers a similar effect is not observed when examining accidents among adults the results are consistent with a positive income elasticity for alcoholic beverages and driving activities among young people in particular for consumption out of discretionary income accorded by higher minimum wages evidence of a sizable impact of beer taxes on alcohol related accidents among youths suggests that beer taxes are one avenue for policymakers to consider in counteracting this unintended consequence of minimum wages

inter vivos transfers and intergenerational exchange the surge of interest in intergenerational transfers in the past decade has sparked a debate over the motivation for them are transfers given out of altruism or part of an exchange while each motive is probably at work to some extent we know little about whether one motive predominates the question is relevant for issues concerning public income redistribution and inequality in the family but despite its importance empirical evidence about motives is scarce because of limited data we investigate a new data set the national survey of families and households which remedies many of the shortcomings of other data sets containing private transfer information we find that empirical patterns for inter vivos transfers i e transfers between living persons are more consistent with exchange than altruism

the life cycle profile of time spent on job search using time use survey data we document a hump shaped profile of job search time in the united states across the life cycle the middle aged unemployed spend roughly three times as much time in job search as the youngest group of unemployed the hump shaped profile of job search time is relatively stable across demographic groups however the profile of job search time appears to be declining in non us countries we discuss how standard life cycle models with incomplete markets have difficulty in accounting for the hump shaped profile found in the us data

the strategic bequest motive although recent research suggests that intergenerational transfers play an important role in aggregate capital accumulation our understanding of bequest motives remains incomplete we develop a simple model of strategic bequests in which a testator influences the decisions of his beneficiaries by holding wealth in bequeathable forms and by conditioning the division of bequests on the beneficiaries actions the model generates falsifiable empirical predictions that are inconsistent with other theories of intergenerational transfers we present econometric and other evidence that strongly suggests that bequests are often used as compensation for services rendered by beneficiaries

using regional variation in wages to measure the effects of the federal minimum wage the imposition of a national minimum wage standard provides a natural experiment in which the treatment effect varies across states depending on the fraction of workers initially earning less than the new minimum the author exploits this fact to evaluate the effect of the april 1990 increase in the federal minimum wage on teenagers wages employment and school enrollment comparisons of grouped and individual state data confirm that the rise in the minimum wage increased teenagers wages there is no evidence of corresponding losses in teenage employment or changes in teenage school enrollment

employment effects of minimum and subminimum wages panel data on state minimum wage laws using panel data on state minimum wage laws and economic conditions for the years 1973 89 the authors reevaluate existing evidence on the effects of a minimum wage on employment their estimates indicate that a 10 increase in the minimum wage causes a decline of 1 2 in employment among teenagers and a decline of 1 5 2 in employment for young adults similar to the ranges suggested by earlier time series studies the authors also find evidence that youth subminimum wage provisions enacted by state legislatures moderate the disemployment effects of minimum wages on teenagers

on the empirics of social capital this paper critically examines the way in which empirical evidence is developed in support of a role for social capital in socioeconomic outcomes three leading studies of social capital are reviewed and in each case argued to suffer from various identification problems a general set of conditions under which social capital effects may be identified in linear models is given careful attention to these conditions combined with greater openmindedness as to what constitutes appropriate evidence seems the best route to improving empirical studies of social capital

data watch the american time use survey we discuss the new american time use survey atus an on going household survey of roughly 1 200 americans per month 1 800 per month in the first year 2003 that collects time diaries as well as demographic interview information from respondents who had recently been in the current population survey the characteristics of the data are presented as are caveats and concerns that one might have about them a number of novel uses of the atus in economic research including in the areas of macroeconomics national income accounting labor economics and others are proposed to illustrate the magnitude of this new survey s possible applications

the inflation persistence of staggered contracts one of the criticisms routinely advanced against models with staggered contracts is their inability to generate inflation persistence this paper finds that staggered contracts a la taylor are in fact capable of reproducing the inflation persistence implied by u s data following fuhrer and moore i capture the moments that the model needs to replicate by using the correlograms from a small vector autoregression var i estimate the contract parameters using the method of maximum likelihood the correlogram of inflation for the contract model is very close to the correlogram from the var by the same metric taylor contracts fare poorly in reproducing the comovements of inflation and output

sticky price models of the business cycle can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem we construct a quantitative equilibrium model with firms setting prices in a staggered fashion and use it to ask whether monetary shocks can generate business cycle fluctuations these fluctuations include persistent movements in output along with the other defining features of business cycles like volatile investment and smooth consumption we assume that prices are exogenously sticky for a short time persistent output fluctuations require endogenous price stickiness in the sense that firms choose not to change prices much when they can do so we find that for a wide range of parameter values the amount of endogenous stickiness is small thus we find that in a standard quantitative model staggered price setting alone does not generate business cycle fluctuations

intergenerational household formation female labor supply and informal caregiving a bargaining approach children s provision of in kind services to their elderly parents informal caregiving represents an important form of economic transfers to the elderly in this paper we develop and estimate a joint model of informal caregiving and labor force participation decisions of adult daughters who have a frail elderly parent in a broader framework of intergenerational household formation parent and daughter agree to a nash bargaining rule as the solution to the household formation and intrahousehold decision making process however rather than severed relationships the threat point is given by a noncooperative equilibrium defined in terms of voluntary contributions toward a public good the parental well being maximum likelihood parameter estimates derived from the simultaneous multiequation endogenous switching model are generally consistent with expectations our results indicate that competing demands on daughters time reduce both coresidence and informal caregiving we also find that intergenerational coresidence is an important mode of assistance to elderly persons a simulation based on the estimated parameters suggests that public programs designed to meet the long term care needs of elderly persons by subsidizing formal home care services may have substantial effects on intergenerational living and care arrangement decisions

tied transfers and paternalistic preferences why do parents make inter vivos transfers to their children and leave them postmortem bequests 1 gary becker s notions of altruism 1981 ch 8 by which he means that children s utilities are arguments of their parents utility function provides one explanation denoting the children s utility functions by u ci where ci denotes consumption by child i the preferences of parents with two children can be represented by a utility function of the form w cp u1 c1 u2 c2 where cp is the parents own consumption 2 in the altruistic model parents sole motive for intergenerational transfers is to increase their children s utility in other models however parents may have nonaltruistic as well as altruistic motives for transferring resources to their children the literature on economic development emphasizes old age support as a motive for fertility and to a lesser degree as a motive for providing children with human capital as part of an explicit or implicit intergenerational contract when human capital formation is the primary focus of the analysis as in discussions of education and earnings it is useful to decompose inter vivos transfers into human capital formation and other inter vivos transfers such a decomposition can mislead in discussing intergenerational transfers however because it obscures the fact that the provision of human capital by parents constitutes an intergenerational transfer laurence kotlikoff and avia spivak 1981 analyze another old age support model one in which the family operates as an incomplete annuities market in their model children make regular transfers to their aging parents and the share that each child contributes to the parents determines his or her share of the parental estate although the prospect of old age support may be an important motive for downstream intergenerational transfers i e from parents to children in some societies in the united states today upstream transfers appear too small and too uncertain to make this motive credible to explain downstream transfers in the united states today economists have investigated other models in which parents have selfish as well as selfless motives for example b douglas bernheim andrei shleifer and lawrence summers propose a model in which parents use the prospect of bequests to exact services from their children we envision a testator who though altruistic is also affected by actions taken individually by a number of potential beneficiaries he may e g enjoy receiving attention from his children 1985 p 1046 bernheim et al assume that such actions increase parents utility and decrease children s utilities in their model the children s utility functions become u1 ai ci where ai denotes services the ith child provides the parents and the parents utility function becomes w cp al a2 ul al c1 u2 a2 ca to measure these services bernheim et al use frequency of contact i e visits plus telephone calls between parents and children this approach expands the concept of child services to include those provided by adult children who live outside the parents household in an attempt to explain bequests and inter vivos transfers child services originally appeared in discussions of fertility and the allocation of resources to young children living with their parents and thus tends to evoke the joys of young parenthood university of pennsylvania philadelphia pa 19104 and university of washington i am grateful to the national science foundation and the national institutes of health for financial support to gary becker samuel preston david stapleton and paul taubman for helpful comments and to judith farnbach for editonal assistance 1 even if bequests are unplanned as some versions of the life cycle savings model assume inter vivos transfers must be intentional 21 ignore the possible dependence of the children s utility on their own children s utility etc because it is not relevant to the issues discussed in this paper

forming wage expectations through learning evidence from college major choices abstract how do college students choose their majors and what role does the family play in their choices i use data from two major longitudinal surveys to develop and estimate a model in which students learn about earning opportunities associated with different majors through the wages of older siblings and parents the probability of a student choosing a major that corresponds to the occupation of a family member is strongly correlated with the family member s wage at the time the major choice is made this correlation remains strong after controlling for family correlated abilities or preferences and additional empirical evidence suggests that the observed correlation arises through a family based wage information channel

distinguished lecture on economics in government what we don t know could hurt us some reflections on the measurement of economic activity the routine production of u s economic statistics dates back to the early part of the twentieth century but in recent decades as services output has continued to expand a system of economic statistics that had been designed during the manufacturing era began to seem increasingly outdated over the past decade the statistical agencies have done yeoman work to expand the availability and quality of service sector statistics but the task is far from completed moreover the traditional accounting framework for economic statistics has focused almost exclusively on market transactions looking ahead more comprehensive measurement of productive activities however they may be organized must be a priority

the accident externality of driving evidence from observance of the jewish sabbath in israel we document and measure an externality of driving whereby a driver s decision to take to the road affects fellow drivers risk of accident because religious jews refrain from driving during the sabbath traffic on israeli roads decreases sharply when the sabbath begins each friday at a precisely defined time before sundown and increases after the sabbath ends on saturday evening at a precisely defined time after sunset using plausibly exogenous variation in traffic volume associated with the sabbath we estimate the effect of traffic volume on the risk of fatal or injurious accident we find that a positive accident externality emerges only at the sabbath exit when traffic volumes are greater remarkably similar results arise when the analysis is confined to non jewish drivers whose travel choices are not bound by the precise timing of the sabbath supporting the interpretation that our findings reflect an externality finally the effect emerges mainly on a class of road sections that is considered highly perilous suggesting that the interaction of traffic volume and road perilousness is important for understanding this issue and shaping implicated policy

time use and labor productivity the returns to sleep abstract we investigate how the largest use of time sleep affects productivity time use data from the united states allow us to test a model in which sleep improves productivity consistent with t

job queues and wages this paper uses job applications data to investigate the relationship between job queues and wage differentials the main finding is that openings for jobs that pay the minimum wage attract more job applicants than jobs that pay either slightly more or slightly less than the minimum wage this spike in the job application rate distribution suggests that ex ante rents generated for employees by an above market level minimum wage are not completely dissipated by reductions in nonwage benefits in addition we find that highly unionized firms large firms and firms in high wage industries tend to receive relatively many job applicants for openings

investing in schooling in chile the role of information about financial aid for higher education we investigate the impacts of providing low income chilean adolescents with information about how to finance higher education and ask whether providing parents with the same information magnifies the effects on schooling outcomes we randomly assigned eighth graders and some parents to receive information about aid for higher education exposure to information raised college preparatory high school enrollment primary school attendance and financial aid knowledge with gains concentrated among medium and high grade students parental exposure to information did not significantly magnify these effects our results demonstrate that access to relevant information about financial aid affects important schooling choices long before tertiary education begins

the effect of minimum wages on employment a factor model approach this paper resolves issues in the minimum wage employment debate by using factor model econometric methods to address concerns related to unobserved heterogeneity recent work has shown that the negative effects of minimum wages on employment found using traditional methods are sensitive to the inclusion of controls for regional heterogeneity and selection of states that experience minimum wage hikes leaving the two sides of the debate in disagreement about the appropriate approach factor model methods are an ideal solution for this disagreement as they allow for the presence of multiple unobserved common factors which can be correlated with the regressors these methods provide a more exible way of addressing concerns related to unobserved heterogeneity and are robust to critiques from either side of the debate the factor model estimators produce minimum wage employment elasticities that are much smaller than the traditional ols results and are not statistically different from zero these results hold for many specications and two datasets that have been used in the minimum wage employment literature a simulation shows that unobserved common factors can explain the different estimates seen across methodologies in the literature

do minimum wage increases influence worker health this study investigates whether minimum wage increases impact worker health in the united states we consider self reported measures of general mental and physical health we use data on lesser skilled workers from the 1993 to 2014 behavioral risk factor surveillance survey among men we find no evidence that minimum wage increases improve health instead we find that such increases lead to worse health outcomes particularly among unemployed men we find both worsening general health and improved mental health following minimum wage increases among women these findings broaden our understanding of the full impacts of minimum wage increases on lesser skill workers jel i1 i11 i18

higher wages less gym time the effects of minimum wages on time use this study examines the effects of minimum wages on time use analyzing data from the american time use survey from 2003 to 2017 i investigate the role of time allocated towards exercise and other health enhancing activities as a potential mechanism underlying the link between minimum wages and health the study finds that a 1 increase in minimum wages is associated with reductions in exercising and total personal health time by 13 and 20 minutes during the week respectively this decline in health time is fully reallocated toward additional leisure time the results are largely driven by males and employed individuals

bequest behavior and the effect of heirs earnings testing the altruistic model of bequests that parents transfer resources to children because of altruistic concern is a reasonable a priori assumption however economic theories of altruistic transfers have produced many counterintuitive conclusions and consequently much debate when applied to bequests these theories predict that inheritances will compensate for earnings differences between siblings as well as between parents and children this paper tests these implications using a new data set centered on federal estate tax returns little support can be found for an altruistic theory of bequests this finding has implications for macroeconomic policy government transfer programs and inequality copyright 1996 by american economic association

intrinsic inflation persistence empirical evidence suggests that inflation determination is not purely forward looking but models of price setting have struggled to rationalize this finding without directly assuming backward looking pricing rules for firms this paper shows that intrinsic inflation persistence can be explained with no deviation from optimizing forward looking behaviour if prices that have remained fixed for longer are more likely to be changed than those set recently a relationship between the probability of price adjustment and the duration of a price spell is shown to imply a simple hybrid phillips curve including lagged and expected inflation which is estimated using macroeconomic data

survey measures of family decision processes for econometric analysis of schooling decisions in this article we consider the collection of novel subjective data on family processes of schooling decisions in particular we review recent progress on survey measurement of expectations information and locus of decision of american families within the context of secondary schooling and we discuss possible future developments by providing concrete examples from recent exploratory efforts we argue that collection of data on adolescents and parents perceptions of the available school options and the application and admission rules their subjective expectations about short and long term consequences of alternative choices and their assessments of the locus of decision making within families could greatly enhance economic modeling and contribute to effective econometric analysis of schooling decisions jel c83 d19 d79 d83 d84 i21 i26 j24

loafing or learning the demand for informal education abstract using detailed time use data for germany a positive correlation is found between the level of schooling and time investments in informal education two hypotheses explain this observation 1 highly educated people have higher opportunity costs of their leisure time and thus prefer leisure activities which add to their market productivity wage effect and 2 highly educated people have a preference for high quality leisure taste effect the demand for informal education is derived in a household production model accounting for both explanations an empirical investigation finds evidence for both effects with the taste effect being more important

noncooperative bargaining models of marriage in this paper we discuss some simple noncooperative models of distribution within marriage in which the equilibria are not necessarily pareto optimal in which history and culture can affect which equilibrium is realized and in which distribution may depend on whether resources are controlled by the husband or by the wife recent moves away from single decision maker models of the family have permitted economists to address distribution within marriage and cooperative bargaining models have played the central role in these moves the next step is to permit strategic interaction between family members by modeling distribution within marriage as a noncooperative game noncooperative game theory allows great flexibility in specifying the rules of the game and unlike cooperative game theory imposes few a priori restrictions on the nature of equilibrium outcomes in particular noncooperative models neither assume nor imply that all equilibria are pareto optimal

are minimum wages a silent killer new evidence on drunk driving fatalities abstract in volume 94 of this review adams blackburn and cotti abc using fatal accident reporting system data from 1998 to 2006 find that a 10 increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 7 to 11 increase in alcohol related fatal traffic accidents involving teen drivers we find this result does not hold when the analysis period is expanded to include 1991 through 2013 in addition auxiliary analyses provide no support for income driven increases in alcohol consumption the primary mechanism posited by abc together our results suggest that minimum wage increases are not a silent killer

factors influencing education achievement this study sets out to examine the factors that influence human capital formation in predominately rural communities the results indicated that parents educational attainment greatly influences the quality of education for their children thus consolidating smaller poor schools in which the parents have limited education above primary and secondary schools will not likely lead to much if any improvement in students test scores

time use during the great recession using data from the american time use survey between 2003 and 2010 we document that home production absorbs roughly 30 percent of foregone market work hours at business cycle frequencies leisure absorbs roughly 50 percent of foregone market work hours with sleeping and television watching accounting for most of this increase we document significant increases in time spent on shopping child care education and health job search absorbs between 2 and 6 percent of foregone market work hours we discuss the implications of our results for business cycle models with home production and non separable preferences jel codes d13 e32 j22

synchronization of work schedules why do people work intermittently and why do they synchronize their work schedules a group of interacting workers who differ in tastes is analyzed a lifetime labor supply model is developed which combines tiring rhythmic changes in the environment and interactions among workers arising from communication and coordination a multiplicity of synchronized equilibria arises these equilibria can be ranked according to the length of the work period equilibria with longer hours are preferred by all workers in the group the worker with the highest aversion to work sets the standard and others conform to him copyright 1996 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

gas prices beer taxes and gdl programmes effects on auto fatalities among young adults in the us efforts to reduce teenage driving fatalities can be categorized as enhancing driving skills constraining driving behaviour and limiting the exposure of young drivers to the road this article uses state year specific fatality analysis reporting system fars data on the motor vehicle fatalities of young adults aged 15 24 to estimate the effects of gasoline prices beer taxes and the enactment of graduated drivers license gdl programmes over the 1985 2006 period results indicate that a 10 increase in gasoline prices reduce fatalities by 3 2 6 2 the largest percentage reductions occurred among 15 to 17 year old drivers 10 higher beer taxes were estimated to reduce motor vehicle fatalities among young drivers by approximately 1 3 in this case there was virtually no effect on 15 to 17 year old drivers finally the introduction of more restrictive gdl programmes those with a 6 month learner s permit phase and subsequent limits on early nighttime driving or on the number of passengers reduced

drunk driving after the passage of smoking bans in bars abstract using geographic variation in local and state smoke free bar laws in the us we observe an increase in fatal accidents involving alcohol following bans on smoking in bars that is not observed in places without bans although an increased accident risk might seem surprising at first two strands of literature on consumer behavior suggest potential explanations smokers driving longer distances to a bordering jurisdiction that allows smoking in bars and smokers driving longer distances within their jurisdiction to bars that still allow smoking perhaps through non compliance or outdoor seating we find evidence consistent with both explanations the increased miles driven by drivers wishing to smoke and drink offsets any reduction in driving from smokers choosing to stay home following a ban resulting in increased alcohol related accidents this result proves durable as we subject it to an extensive battery of robustness checks

group decision making with uncertain outcomes unpacking child parent choice of the high school track predicting group decisions under uncertainty requires disentangling individual members utilities over the consequences of choice their expectations for uncertain outcomes and their choice process as a group i estimate simple bayesian models of child parent choice of high school track with subjective risk and unilateral or bilateral nonstrategic decisions by combining families actual choices with novel survey information about children s and parents subjective probabilities over choice consequences their individually preferred choices and their decision roles a set of policy counterfactuals confirms the importance of introducing the beliefs and decision roles of individual members in models and policy analysis of group decisions

college choice as a collective decision although the choice between colleges can be thought of as being made collectively by a family models of educational choice almost universally portray the decision as made by the student alone using a novel experimental method for identifying collective decision functions i find that students have more influence than parents over the decision but not exclusive control students care more than parents about classroom experience and future earnings ignoring the dual agent nature of the decision can weaken predictions and lead to poorly targeted policy designs jel i21 j24 d13

stressed out on four continents time crunch or yuppie kvetch social commentators have pointed to the problems of citizens of industrialized countries especially working women who face time stress an absence of sufficient time to accomplish all their tasks an economic theory views time stress as an increasing function of the shadow price of time and suggests it will be more prevalent in households with higher incomes and whose members work longer in the market or on required homework evidence from microeconomic data sets for australia germany korea and the united states corroborates this view adults in higher income households perceive more time stress in the united states a move from the 25 th to the 75 th percentile of the income distribution raises time stress by half as much as an interquartile change in weekly market work the relative effects of increased income compared to increased market work are larger in germany smaller in australia and roughly the same in korea time stress is part time crunch but much is also part yuppie kvetch

new keynesian economics and the phillips curve models with sticky prices are an important part of new keynesian economics the author shows that several of the new keynesian models imply a formulation that is similar to the expectations augmented phillips curve of milton friedman and edmund phelps he then presents new estimates of the new keynesian phillips curve the author uses two proxies for price expectations survey based measures and an econometric based measure originally developed by bennett mccallum 1976 overall the results are consistent with the model but the survey based results are more precise suggesting that the surveys may be better measures of actual expectations copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

the effect of the minimum wage on the fast food industry using a longitudinal survey of fast food restaurants in texas the authors examine the impact of recent increases in the federal minimum wage on a low wage labor market less than 5 of fast food restaurants were using the new youth subminimum wage in july august 1991 even though the vast majority paid a starting wage below the new hourly minimum wage immediately before it became effective although some restaurants increased wages beyond the level needed to comply with higher minimum wages in both 1990 and 1991 those federal minimum wage increases greatly compressed the distribution of starting wages in the texas fast food industry two findings at variance with conventional predictions are that 1 employment increased more in those firms likely to have been most affected by the 1991 minimum wage increase than in other firms and 2 price changes were unrelated to mandated wage changes

aggregate impacts of a gift of time lee jungmin kawaguchi daiji hamermesh daniel s december 2011 aggregate impacts of a gift of time reports cambridgenational bureau of economic research nber working paper series 17649 33

the minimum wage law and youth crimes time series evidence gtrowing evidence indicates that the federal minimum wage law has adversely affected the employment rate the labor force participation rate and on the job training of young workers 1 insofar as the minimum wage has adverse effects on youth labor markets it is also expected to affect the time spent in activities outside the labor market including criminal activities 2 little research has been done on the minimum wage

do minimum wages fight poverty i introduction one of the most compelling rationales for a national minimum wage floor is to raise the incomes of poor or near poor families with members in the workforce this general point however is often missed in the debates over the merits of a higher minimum wage in contrast to these oft stated distributional goals much of the focus in such debates has been on the employment effects of minimum wages especially among the teenage population in large part this focus is probably attributable to the extensive body of economic research on the effects of minimum wages on employment of low skilled workers however although negative employment effects represent a cost of minimum wages such costs do not necessarily imply that minimum wages constitute bad social policy in particular the employment losses associated with a higher minimum wage may be more than offset by positive effects on low income families especially if minimum wages are a significant factor in helping move families out of poverty 1 this is not to argue that research on employment effects of minimum wages is irrelevant but such research may be more important as a test of the theory of labor demand and as a method of learning how employers and individuals adjust to exogenous wage increases than as a method of assessing the wisdom of the policy in addition we do not mean to suggest that the short run effects of minimum wages on the incomes of poor families should be the sole criterion for evaluating such policies other studies have found evidence suggesting for example that minimum wage increases reduce school enrollment rates and training neumark and wascher 1996a hashimoto 1982 factors that may affect longer run earnings or earnings growth these deleterious longer run effects might offset the benefits of shorter run effects of minimum wages on family incomes nonetheless our perception is that potential increases in the incomes of poor families provide the main motivation for raising the minimum wage making it important to assess the evidence on whether minimum wage increases achieve this goal in this regard there are two questions that pertain to the influence of minimum wages on family incomes generally and on poverty in particular first there is the question of the effects of minimum wages on low wage workers that is do the wage gains received by employed workers more than offset the lost earnings suffered by those who lose or cannot find jobs 2 second there is the question of how minimum wages affect workers in different parts of the family income distribution because many roughly speaking a large minority of minimum wage workers are in relatively affluent families gramlich 1976 card and krueger 1995 burkhauser et al 1996 which workers gain and which lose will have an important influence on the effects of minimum wages on the distribution of family incomes in this article we present evidence on the effects of minimum wages on family incomes focusing in particular but not solely on the effectiveness of minimum wages in reducing poverty using matched march current population surveys cpss we estimate the effects of minimum wages on the probabilities of various transitions in the family income distribution such as transitions into and out of poverty given that federal changes in minimum wages may be confounded with other aggregate level shocks influencing family income we rely heavily on state level changes in minimum wages to identify minimum wage effects in a nutshell our empirical strategy is to compare rates of transition through the family income distribution in states in which minimum wages do and do not increase for example if poor families are more likely to escape from poverty when minimum wages increase in their states of residence we would infer that minimum wage hikes help families move out of poverty on the other hand if transitions in to poverty are more common when minimum wages increase we would infer that the disemployment effects of minimum wages play a dominant role among the low income population

a reassessment of the new economics of the minimum wage literature with monthly data from the current population survey we estimate the employment effects of federal minimum wage increases using monthly current population survey cps data from 1979 through 1997 we find that the empirical differences in the new minimum wage literature based on cps data primarily can be traced to alternative methods of controlling for macroeconomic conditions we argue that the macroeconomic controls commonly included in models where no employment impact is found are inappropriate we consistently find a significant but modest negative relationship between minimum wage increases and teenage employment using alternative controls or allowing employer responses to the policy to occur with some delay

efficient intra household allocations a general characterization and empirical tests the neoclassical theory of demand applies to individuals yet in empirical work it is usually taken as valid for households with many members this paper explores what the theory of individuals implies for households that have more than one member we make minimal assumptions about how the individual members of the household resolve conflicts all we assume is that however decisions are made outcomes are efficient we refer to this as the collective setting we show that in the collective setting household demands must satisfy a symmetry and rank condition on the slutsky matrix we also present some further results on the effects on demands of variables that do not modify preferences but that do affect how decisions are made we apply our theory to a series of surveys of household expenditures from canada the tests of the usual symmetry conditions are rejected for two person households but not for one person households we also show that income pooling is rejected for two person households we then test for our collective setting conditions on the couples data none of the collective setting restrictions are rejected we conclude that the collective setting is a plausible and tractable next step to take in the analysis of household behavior

a fresh look at the rotten kid theorem and other household mysteries gary becker s rotten kid theorem asserts that if all family members receive gifts of money income from a benevolent household member then even if the household head does not precommit to an incentive plan for family members it will be in the interest of selfish family members to maximize total family income i show by examples that the rotten kid theorem is not true without assuming transferable utility i find a simple condition on utility functions that is necessary and sufficient for there to be the kind of transferable utility needed for a rotten kid theorem while restrictive these conditions still allow one to apply the strong conclusions of the rotten kid theorem in an interesting class of examples

staggered price contracts and inflation persistence some general results despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities some have questioned whether models based on staggered price contracts with rational expectations can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process this article presents some general results about this class of models it is shown that these models do not have a problem matching high autocorrelations for inflation however they fail to explain a key feature of reducedform phillips curve regressions the positive dependence of inflation on its own lags it is shown that staggered price contracting models instead predict that the coefficients on these lag terms should be negative

do legal minimum wages create rents a re examination of the evidence the effects of minimum wage laws have interested economists for many years while much of the research regarding minimum wage laws has focused on its employment effects several economists have been concerned with the laws effects on the non pecuniary aspects of jobs there is disagreement in the literature as to whether minimum wage legislation creates rents in those jobs for which the law is a constraint several researchers have argued that firms will offset any rent created by the minimum wage by reducing the non wage aspects of the job 4 7 14 15 in a recent paper holzer katz and krueger 5 present evidence suggesting that employers do not completely offset the minimum wage they use information on application rates for job openings found in the employment opportunities pilot project data set eopp to test for the existence of rents on minimum wage jobs minimum wage jobs are found to have longer queues of applicants than other jobs ceteris paribus which suggests the existence of rents this paper presents additional tests of the existence of rents using the eopp data we find that workers who received starting wages equal to the minimum wage have a significantly higher probability of quitting than workers paid either less than or more than the minimum wage this result seems to contradict the findings of holzer katz and krueger regarding minimum wage jobs as we see it our findings support wessels 15 contention that since wages are more visible than non pecuniary aspects of compensation low wage workers mistakenly queue for minimum wage jobs thinking them more attractive than they are but then quit when reality sets in the paper is organized as follows section ii discusses the existing theoretical and empirical research regarding minimum wages section iii presents our empirical procedures section iv discusses the eopp data set and in section v we discuss our results finally in section vi we draw some tentative conclusions and discuss future research

european inflation dynamics abstract we provide evidence on the fit of the new phillips curve npc for the euro area over the period 1970 1998 and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of european inflation dynamics with those observed in the u s we also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs as well as that of its two main components namely labor productivity and real wages some of the findings can be summarized as follows a the npc fits euro area data very well possibly better than u s data b the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial but in line with survey evidence and u s estimates c inflation dynamics in the euro area appear to have a stronger forward looking component i e less inertia than in the u s d labor market frictions as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and consequently inflation in europe

parental preferences and choice of school this paper provides a uk high resolution microeconometric study of parental preferences and the choice process for secondary schools given the particular geographical features of the region first preference almost entirely related to one of two state schools which is a situation that perhaps better reflects the real nature of the options faced by most parents in the uk in contrast to earlier work distance and access considerations were explicitly incorporated in the preference and choice models estimated and found to be a significant influence on parental decisions further significant factors were found dependent upon the parents actual choice of school

how do we know that real wages are too high it is common belief that the wages that we observe are above the level that would prevail in a competitive labour market and also it is common to believe that wage moderation should be encouraged as a way to keep unemployment down this paper considers whether we can have confidence in these beliefs it presents a number of models designed to cast doubt on the conventional wisdom first we show that in an efficiency wage model in which there is involuntary unemployment a binding minimum wage may increase employment we then present a general equilibrium matching model in which there is involuntary unemployment but wages are below market clearing levels and raising wages can reduce unemployment we then consider the empirical evidence on employment and wage determination to argue that it is just as consistent with this model as with models in which wages are at or above market clearing levels

estimates of a labour supply function using alternative measures of hours of work abstract depending on the data source estimates of hours of work give widely different results both as to level and change in this study three alternative measures of hours worked are used to estimate a simple labor supply function to investigate if the estimated wage rate and income effects are data dependent as well the measures used include those from time use surveys and from labor force surveys the latter are based on the responses to a question about normal weekly hours of market work the results suggest that the estimates of the wage rate effects become much smaller when measures of normal hours are used compared to data collected for a well defined time period close to the date of interview such as time use data the income effects appear less sensitive to the choice of data

do minimum wages affect non wage job attributes evidence on fringe benefits although many studies have tested neoclassical labor market theory s prediction that employers will react to binding minimum wages by reducing employment levels much less empirical research has explored the possibility that employers also respond to minimum wages by adjusting non wage components of the job such as fringe benefits job safety and access to training using current population survey data for 1979 2000 this study investigates the effect of minimum wage legislation on the provision of employer health insurance and employer pension coverage the authors examine effects of state and federal variation in minimum wages on groups likely to be affected by the minimum wage and compare these effects to estimates found for groups unlikely to be affected whether the analysis uses only state level variation or federal and state variation in minimum wages the results indicate no discernible effect of the minimum wage on fringe benefit generosity for low skill workers

the joint determination of household membership and market work the case of young men except in special cases market work and household membership are jointly chosen a nash bargaining model of family behavior is used to specify stochastic structural relationships two indirect utility functions and a market and a reservation wage function that jointly determine work consumption and household membership the maximum likelihood estimates of the implied trinomial probit model differ sharply from those obtained when either market work or household membership is taken as exogenous this application to white male youths from the national longitudinal surveys shows the insurance function of families parents insure their sons against poor market opportunities

has euro area inflation persistence changed over time this paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for euro area inflation since 1970 focusing in particular on the behavior of the so called persistence parameter the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables perhaps surprisingly in light of the lucas critique our principal finding is that there appears to be relatively little instability in the parameters of the euro area inflation process full sample estimates of the persistence parameter are generally close to 1 and we fail to reject the hypothesis that this parameter has been stable over time we discuss how these results provide some indirect evidence against rational expectations models with strong forward looking elements such as the new keynesian phillips curve

the effects of cognitive ability and high school quality on college entry decisions nonparametric estimation of parameters of interest the decisions to attend college are analysed and nonparametric predictions compared to those obtained from the widely used logit model the impacts of measured cognitive ability and proxies for high school quality on the decisions to attend college are examined for a sample of white and black males and females from the usa two different parameters of interest which isolate the effects of ability and high school quality on college entry decisions are described and estimated by integrating out the effect of other covariates it is found that measured cognitive ability is an extremely important determinant of college entry for all race and gender groups at the same point in the ability distribution blacks are more likely to select into college than whites and females more likely than males of the same racial group proxies for high school quality such as teacher education student teacher ratios school enrolment and library size are shown to have little or no effects on the likelihood of college entry

parental altruism and inter vivos transfers theory and evidence this paper uses psid data on the extended family to test whether inter vivos transfers from parents to children are motivated by altruism specifically the paper tests whether an increase by one dollar in the income of parents actively making transfers to a child coupled with a one dollar reduction in that child s income results in the parents increasing their transfer to the child by one dollar this restriction on parental and child transfer income derivatives is derived for the standard altruism model augmented to include uncertainty and liquidity constraints these additional elements pin down the timing of inter vivos transfers the method used to estimate income transfer derivatives takes into account unobserved heterogeneity across families in the degree of altruism the findings strongly reject the altruism hypothesis redistributing one dollar from a recipient child to donor parents leads to less than a 13 cent increase in the parents transfer to the child far less than the one dollar increas

the fiscal theory of the price level a critique abstract this paper argues that the fiscal theory of the price level ftpl has feet of clay the source of the problem is a fundamental economic misspecification the ftplconfuses two key building blocks of a model of a market economy budgetconstraints which must be satisfied identically and market clearing or equilibriumconditions the ftpl asssumes that the government s intertemporal budgetconstraint needs to be satisfied only in equilibrium this economic misspecification has far reaching implications for the mathematicalproperties of the equilibria supported by models that impose the structure of theftpl it produces a rash of contradictions and anomalies jel classifications e31 e41 e51 e52 e62 e63 key words fiscal theory of the price level ricardian fiscal financial monetaryprogrammes government budget constraint price level indeterminacy author willem h buiter european bank for reconstruction and development oneexchange square london ec2a 2jn uktel 44 20 73386805fax 44 20 73386110 6111e mail buiterw ebrd comweb page http www nber org wbuiter index htm

parent child bargaining parental transfers and the post secondary education decision schooling decisions are often modelled within a unitary preference framework in this article an alternative to the unitary preference model is proposed in which parents and child have conflicting preferences over parental transfers and the level of post secondary schooling and participate in cooperative bargaining as a means of resolving this conflict comparisons of the implications of the bargaining and unitary preference models motivate tests of parental altruism and income pooling to test these hypotheses reduced form transfer and schooling equations are estimated using data from the high school and beyond surveys the evidence suggests that the unitary preference model be rejected

minimum wage and tax evasion theory and evidence the paper investigates the role of the minimum wage in a competitive economy in which there is underreporting of earnings by employed labour the minimum wage induces higher compliance by some lowproductivity workers and transforms a nominally neutral scal system into a regressive one a spike in the wage distribution at the minimum wage level appears and a positive correlation between the size of the spike and the size of the informal economy is predicted and documented using cross country data for europe a further result is that employees whose o cially declared earnings appear to be boosted by a minimum wage hike actually experience a decline in their true income this prediction nds support in an empirical test using the massive increase in the minimum wage that took place in hungary in 2001 as a quasi natural experiment

revisiting the minimum wage employment debate throwing out the baby with the bathwater we revisit the minimum wage employment debate which is as old as the department of labor in particular we assess new studies claiming that the standard panel data approach used in much of the new minimum wage research is flawed because it fails to account for spatial heterogeneity these new studies use research designs intended to control for this heterogeneity and conclude that minimum wages in the united states have not reduced employment we explore the ability of these research designs to isolate reliable identifying information and test the untested assumptions in this new research about the construction of better control groups our evidence points to serious problems with these research designs we conclude that the evidence still shows that minimum wages pose a tradeoff of higher wages for some against job losses for others and that policymakers need to bear this tradeoff in mind when making decisions about increasing the minimum wage

state dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs in such a setting optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy yet while widely discussed statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models this paper develops a new tractable theoretical state dependent pricing framework we use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand and the interest sensitivity of money demand

the response by adults to increases in cigarette prices by sociodemographic characteristics cigarette excise taxes are widely viewed by health economists as an effective tool to reduce cigarette consumption however those opposed to increasing cigarette excise taxes often state that the taxes unfairly target certain segments of the population notably the poor and minorities some of this opposition may have been fueled by a lack of understanding of how the tax will affect the health and welfare of various demographic groups of interest this article provides guidance to policy makers by estimating price elasticities among adults by gender income age and race or ethnicity women adults with income at or below the median income young adults african americans and hispanics are most responsive to cigarette price increases for example adults with income at or below the median are more than four times as price responsive as those with income above the median

did liberalising bar hours decrease traffic accidents legal bar closing times in england and wales have historically been early and uniform recent legislation liberalised closing times with the object of reducing social problems thought associated with drinking to beat the clock indeed using both difference in difference and synthetic control approaches we show that one consequence of this liberalisation was a decrease in traffic accidents this decrease is heavily concentrated among younger drivers moreover we provide evidence that the effect was most pronounced in the hours of the week directly affected by the liberalisation late nights and early mornings on weekends this evidence survives a series of robustness checks and suggests at least one socially positive consequence of extending bar hours

shocks and government beliefs the rise and fall of american inflation working paper 2004 22 september 2004 abstract the authors use a bayesian markov chain monte carlo algorithm to estimate a model that allows temporary gaps between a true expectational phillips curve and the monetary authority s approximating nonexpectational phillips curve a dynamic programming problem implies that the monetary authority s inflation target evolves as its estimated phillips curve moves the authors estimates attribute the rise and fall of post world war ii inflation in the united states to an intricate interaction between the monetary authority s beliefs and economic shocks shocks in the 1970s altered the monetary authority s estimates and made it misperceive the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment that misperception caused sharp rise in inflation in the 1970s the authors estimates indicate that policy makers updated their beliefs continuously by the 1980s policy makers beliefs about the phillips curve had changed enough to account for fed chairman paul volcker s conquest of u s inflation in the early 1980s jel classification e3 e5 key words updating beliefs policy evaluation self confirming equilibrium nash inflation ramsey outcomes i introduction today many statesmen and macroeconomists believe that inflation can largely be determined by a government monetary authority then why did the federal reserve board preside over high us inflation during the late 1960s and the 1970s and why under paul volcker did it rapidly bring inflation down during the early 1980s this paper answers these questions by estimating a model that features a particular process that makes a procession of economic shocks induce the monetary authority to alter its model of inflation unemployment dynamics the phillips curve at each date t the monetary authority updates its beliefs about the phillips curve and then recomputes a first period action recommended by a phelps problem a discounted dynamic programming problem that minimizes the expected value of a discounted quadratic loss function of inflation and unemployment 1 the monetary authority pursues the same objectives at each date using the same structural model with only its estimates of that model changing over time 2 this model of the systematic part of inflation puts the monetary authority s beliefs about the phillips curve front and center 3 we assume that the monetary authority s model of the phillips curve deviates in two subtle but important ways from what it would be in a rational expectations model e g kydland and prescott 1977 the first deviation is that while the true phillips curve is like kydland and prescott s we assume that the monetary authority omits the public s expected rate of inflation from its phillips curve by itself this omission need not prevent the outcomes of our model from coinciding with those of kydland and prescott s nor need it imply that the government s model is wrong in a way that could be detected from even an infinite sample whether the monetary authority s model is wrong in a statistically detectable way depends on how we allow the monetary authority to reestimate the parameters of its model in particular if the monetary authority were to believe that the coefficients of its phillips curve are constant over time then its estimates would converge to ones that support a self confirming equilibrium sce after convergence its estimated phillips curve would correctly describe occurrences along the sce path for inflation and unemployment such an after convergence version of our model has little hope of explaining the rise and fall of us inflation that model would have inflation fluctuating randomly around a constant sce level that coincides with kydland and prescott s time consistent suboptimal i e excessive level 4 this outcome motivates our second subtle deviation from a rational expectations equilibrium

a comparison of nominal and indexed debt under fiscal constraints this paper makes a welfare comparison between the issuance of price indexed and nominal public debt in the presence of fiscal constraints viz a debt constraint a deficit constraint and a combination of both distortionary taxes or public consumption are regulated to avoid the violation of the relevant fiscal constraint s under a debt constraint indexed debt is generally preferred while under a deficit constraint the results are more mixed introducing inflation persistence and raising the maturity of the debt tend to increase the magnitude of the welfare differences between the two types of debt welfare differences are further affected by the degree to which public consumption and tax revenues are indexed to actual versus structural nominal gdp