estimating convergence for asian economies using dynamic random variable models abstract this paper analyzes the convergence in per capita gross domestic product gdp among 17 asian countries over the period 1960 1992 we use a dynamic random variables model that allows both country differences and similarities to enter into the analysis of growth and convergence and also corrects for heteroskedasticity and serial correlation we find evidence in favor of regional convergence in these countries with a rate of convergence of around 2 per year

assessing income population and technology impacts on co2 emissions in canada where s the ekc abstract this study investigates the macroeconomic forces underlying carbon dioxide co2 emissions from fossil fuel use in canada in keeping with the relevant literature on environmental degradation three forces are expected to influence co2 emissions gross domestic product per capita gdp capita population and technological change while previous work has employed reduced form models that allow for non linear relationships between co2 and gdp capita it has been common practice to assume linear relationships between co2 and the latter two variables this study tests a more flexible model using a five region panel data set in canada over the period 1970 2000 findings indicate that gdp capita is unrelated to co2 that an inverted u shaped relationship exists with population and that a u shaped relationship exists with technology thus technological and population changes are supported over the commonly hypothesized environmental kuznets curve an inverted u shaped relationship between gdp capita and environmental degradation for affecting co2 emissions from fossil fuel use in canada

renewable natural resource management and use without markets natural resources by their nature are not readily bent to the status of private property efficient resource use is complicated by jurisdictional externalities public goods non use values and beneficiaries spatially separated from the location of resources the task is made more challenging by ecological complexity that obscures cause benefits and effects costs and dramatic time lags between individual actions and subsequent social consequences that together with substantial uncertainty introduce the chance of irreversibilities resource economists have played a major role in the literature on externalities the development of individual transferable quotas non market valuation techniques and common property management

institutions and the environmental kuznets curve for deforestation a crosscountry analysis for latin america africa and asia abstract the relationship between deforestation and income across 66 countries of latin america africa and asia is examined institutional characteristics as well as macroeconomic policies of each country are hypothesized to impact deforestation results show strong evidence of an environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between income and deforestation for all three continents institutional structure and macroeconomic policy significantly affect the tropical deforestation process improvements in political institutions and governance significantly reduce deforestation the factors leading to deforestation differ across regions however and there is no one size fits all global policy recommendation for restraining the tropical deforestation process

la dolce vita hedonic estimates of quality of life in italian cities colombo e michelangeli a and stanca l la dolce vita hedonic estimates of quality of life in italian cities regional studies this paper investigates quality of life in italian cities using the hedonic approach it analyses micro level data for housing and labour markets to estimate compensating differentials for local amenities within four domains weather environment services and society large compensating differentials in housing markets are found whereas the effects on wages are relatively small quality of life varies substantially across space and is generally better in large and medium sized cities of the centre north services and social conditions are strongly related to overall quality of life it is also found that across cities quality of life is positively and significantly related to subjective well being

the environmental kuznets curve and flow versus stock pollution the neglect of future damages in this paper we offer a possible explanation for the empirical finding that the pollution income relationship pir for flow pollutants is an environmental kuznets curve ekc i e inverted u shaped but that the pir for stock pollutants is monotonically rising we analyse an overlapping generations model with two pollutants the flow pollutant causes immediate damages but the stock pollutant harms the environment only in the future hence a succession of myopic governments lets stock pollution grow with income in contrast the flow pollutant follows an ekc whose downturn might be caused by the neglect of future damages and by ever rising stock pollution without the stock pollutant the pir for the flow pollutant can increase monotonically we also show that the turning point of the ekc for the flow pollutant lies at lower levels of income and of flow pollution if stock pollution is high and harmful this casts doubts on most empirical ekc studies because they assume that the turning point occurs at the same income level in all countries however it is consistent with recent empirical findings that the income level at the turning point of the ekc varies across countries

willingness to pay to reduce mortality risks evidence from a three country contingent valuation study valuing a change in the risk of death is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives typically such risks are monetized using the value of a statistical life vsl since the majority of the lives saved by environmental policies are those of older persons there has been much recent debate about whether the vsl should be lower for the elderly to reflect their fewer remaining life years we conducted a contingent valuation survey in the uk italy and france designed to answer this question the survey was administered in these three countries following a standardized protocol our results suggest that the vsl is 1 022 million or 2 264 million depending on whether we use median or mean wtp the vsl is not significantly lower for older persons but is higher for persons who have been admitted to a hospital or emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory problems income is positively and significantly associated with wtp the income elasticities of the wtp increase gradually with income levels and are between 0 15 and 0 5 for current income levels in eu countries we use the responses to the wtp questions to estimate the value of an extension in remaining life expectancy the value of a loss of one year s life expectancy is 54 000 or 163 000

the impact of climate change on internal migration in brazil abstract business as usual climate change forecasts point to sharp temperature rises and agriculture yield losses in many regions of brazil we study the impact of these changes on internal migration and population distribution we employ a spatial equilibrium model in which the climate shapes workers locational choices through the usual amenity value channel and the novel indirect channel via agriculture wages our simulations reveal that migration rates are 9 65 higher and that 0 9 million more people migrate inter regionally under future climate conditions furthermore climate change will likely exacerbate the country s regional inequalities as the most developed regions gain population and welfare while the least developed regions lose

the amenity value of the british climate this study explores the amenity value of climate to households in britain we employ the hedonic technique and use household panel data to derive the marginal willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables we analyse both the housing and the labour market climate is described in terms of heating cooling degree and rain days evidence suggests that it is the housing market that mainly compensates for climate amenities according to the results the relationship between property prices and climate has an inverted u shape for the sample about 50 per cent of the locations are close to the preferred levels of heating and cooling degree days while the results for rain days are more varied connecting the results to projections of climate change leads to the conclusion that future developments are likely to move a number of households further away from their preferred climate thus leading to larger regional disparities

urban sprawl and farmland prices a theoretical model of farmland valuation is developed to explicitly account for three effects of urban sprawl conversion of farmland to urban uses effect on agricultural returns and speculative effect as represented by farmland conversion risk this model is estimated using county level data in the continental united states evidence is found for all three effects of urban sprawl on farmland values counties more accessible to major urban centers have higher net agricultural returns subsidiary evidence supports that the latter effect may be attributed to survival of or conversion to high valued agriculture around urban centers

reap what you sow agricultural technology urbanization and structural change abstract this paper studies how productivity enhancing agricultural technology affects urbanization by provoking structural change we investigate these issues using a natural experiment in the united states the results show that technologies which improve crop productivity lead to a less urbanized economy as economic activity relocates from manufacturing and services towards agriculture the effects are highly persistent and are driven by the technology increasing agricultural labor demand our findings highlight the potentially unintended disruptive force of innovative technologies

indicators for sustainable energy development a multivariate cointegration and causality analysis from tunisian road transport sector this paper studies causal mechanism between indicators for sustainable energy development related to energy consumption from tunisian road transport sector the investigation is made using the johansen cointegration technique and the environmental kuznets curve ekc approach it examines the nexus between transport value added road transport related energy consumption road infrastructure fuel price and co2 emissions from tunisian transport sector during the period of 1980 2010 empirical results show that road transport related energy consumption transport value added transport co2 emissions and road infrastructure are mutually causal in the long run these results do not support the hypothesis of neutrality between energy and income for the tunisian road transport sector also there is a unidirectional causality running from fuel price to road transport related energy consumption with no feedback in both the short and long runs the fuel price and the road infrastructure are significant in the causal chain though the estimated long run cointegrated equation we conclude that there is an inverse n shaped relation between transport value added and transport co2 emissions with income turning point respectively equal to 75 and 579 constant 2000 tnd prices therefore our empirical findings refute the hypothesis of an inverted u shaped ekc for transport co2 emissions in tunisia the findings of this study have a number of policy implications economic growth environmental degradation energy and transportation policies should be recognized in order to improve the energy efficiency in transport sector all measures that should reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions without affecting economic growth may be undertaken the policymakers in tunisia should plan urban transport relocate production units improve fuel efficient vehicles and reinforce legislation on controlling emissions in order to copying with policies based on low carbon development and climate resilient strategies

amenity values versus land constraints the spatial effects of natural landscape features on housing values when local amenities are tied to natural land use features that cannot be developed for physical or regulatory reasons the corresponding implicit price estimates from a hedonic housing model may reflect local supply constraints and confound estimation of natural amenity values using a spatial simultaneous equations model of housing values and migration we examine whether local supply constraints from natural or preserved features have influenced the housing market results indicate that constraints associated with the presence of water bodies and some types of open space preservation have contributed to higher housing prices offsetting local demand for these natural amenities jel c31 r23

relationship between forest resources and economic growth empirical evidence from china abstract natural resources especially forests are critical to china s sustainable development in recent years effective utilization of forest resources has become a significant concern in china in this study on the basis of the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis the relationship between forest resources and economic growth is examined using panel data from 30 provinces in china for the period 2002 2015 and the generalized method of moments gmm approach to control for potential endogeneity the empirical results indicate that with continuous economic growth the timber output and area of afforestation would at first increase and then decrease after reaching the corresponding turning points given the considerable regional gap in economic and social development three regions of china were investigated to perform a more in depth analysis evidence observed for the country and the three regions suggests an ekc for forest resources these findings indicate positive effects of china s pursuit of a more balanced growth path where forest resources would be less consumed and more actively protected

the impact of supply constraints on house prices in england we test the theoretical prediction that house prices respond more strongly to changes in local earnings in places with tight supply constraints using a unique panel dataset of 353 local planning authorities in england between 1974 and 2008 exploiting exogenous variation from a policy reform vote shares and historical density to identify the endogenous constraints measures we find that regulatory constraints have a substantive positive impact on the house price earnings elasticity the effect of constraints due to scarcity of developable land is largely confined to highly urbanised areas and uneven topography has a quantitatively less meaningful impact

economic development and co2 emissions a nonparametric panel approach we examine the empirical relation between co2 emissions per capita and gdp per capita during the period 1960 1996 using a panel of 100 countries relying on the nonparametric poolability test of baltagi et al baltagi b h hidalgo j li q 1996 a nonparametric test for poolability using panel data journal of econometrics 75 345 367 we find evidence of structural stability of the relationship we then specify a nonparametric panel data model with country specific effects estimation results show that this relationship is upward sloping nonparametric specification tests do not reject monotonicity but do reject the polynomial functional form which leads to the environmental kuznets curve in several studies

public conservation land and employment growth in the northern forest region we quantify the effect that public conservation lands have on employment growth in the northern forest region of the united states a model of simultaneous employment and net migration growth is estimated with data on non metropolitan counties from 1990 to 1997 exogenous variables include the 1990 share of the land base in public conservation uses we find that net migration rates were higher in counties with more conservation lands but the effects are relatively small no significant effect on employment growth is detected as well variables measuring changes in public timber harvests have no effect on employment growth

optimal grain pricing and storage policy in controlled agricultural economies application to zimbabwe abstract maize pricing and storage policies of zimbabwe s grain marketing board are compared to those that would be optimal under certain objective function risk and risk aversion assumptions optimal producer prices and storage levels are found to be interdependent and to respond to prices at other levels of the marketing chain the ideal maize reserve stock increases with uncertainty over import transportation costs a factor to consider in light of the threat of south african sanctions but at a reasonable risk aversion level optimal reserves still are much lower than those presently held by the board

agricultural land values and the value of rights to future land development we investigate the inuence of fu ture land development on current agricultural land values from a theoretical model of land markets we derive a reduced form expression for agricultural land values in terms of observable variables this result dictates the speci cation of our econometric model and we nd strong sup port for the model in an application to new york state the estimated model together with a spa tial interpolation algorithm is used to generate a surface of estimated development rights values for orange county this approach overcomes several problems that arise with the use of stan dard appraisal methods to value conservation easements jel q24

the economics of the greenhouse effect the recognition that economic activity is contributing to climatic change with attendant costs that may be of large magnitudes has set in motion a substantial research effort this paper seeks to review the contribution of economics to analysis of the greenhouse effect and to the policies and instruments suggested as means of mitigating its damage a brief overview of the causes and consequences of global warming is given and a number of energy economy forecasting models are examined as the costs of global warming depend upon the extent to which preventative and adaptive measures are undertaken the techniques available to evaluate these costs are surveyed we examine extant targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and explore the frameworks within which optimal policy targets can be designed the paper also considers the narrower question of minimized abatement costs and surveys the types of models used to estimate them the merits of alternative policy instruments are examined paying particular attention to the role that risk and uncertainty and the costs of monitoring and implementation of policy under conditions of imperfect information may play in the choice of instruments problems of international co operation in the development of abatement policy are examined and we consider the compensations across both nations and generations that are likely to be necessary conditions for effective action

farmer organizations and food production in zimbabwe abstract institutional analysis of the food crisis in africa must extend beyond a concern with the operation of central states and markets collective action among smallholders is a necessary adjunct to outside intervention this article reports on the effect of farmer organization on food production in zimbabwe in the period 1980 1985 a typology of farmer groups in developed based upon the nature of the resources that are mobilized for agricultural production evidence is presented to show how farmer groups improve access to household assets and agricultural services for their members the impressive recent record of maize output in zimbabwe is traced in part to the initiatives of small farmers to organize themselves

people places and earnings differentials in scotland abstractpeople places and earnings differentials in scotland regional studies this paper investigates the contribution of people and place effects to earnings differentials in scotland using individual and regional data the main sources of differentials are attributed to workers characteristics people effects particularly academic and vocational qualifications followed by occupational and industrial affiliations on the other hand differences in the attributes of local area labour markets place effects explain only a small part of individual earnings differentials the most relevant spatial attribute is local area human capital the findings suggest that people based policies are likely to be more effective at improving workers earnings prospects than place based policies

amenities and the attraction of dutch cities abstractamenities and the attraction of dutch cities regional studies research on the relevance of amenities for urban wages jobs or housing prices has mainly focused on the case of us cities in many european countries the labour and housing markets function however rather differently than in the case of the united states as a result amenities may affect urban labour or housing markets differently in addition in european countries the proximity of cities is such that spatial interdependencies between cities have to be taken into account as well by using a very rich dataset this paper analyses the relationship between urban amenities agglomeration and housing prices for the case of a highly urbanized european country the netherlands it finds that dutch cities that combine a favourable job location with a variety of urban amenities have significantly higher housing prices relatively safe cities offering a variety of history and cultural events as well as good restaurants also have sign

the role of site and job characteristics in hedonic wage models recent economic analyses of wage rate differentials have generally used some form of hedonic framework in explaining the observed wage structure while these studies have adopted this common theoretical justification the models have been used to serve two distinct objectives the first of these is an empirical test of the theory of equalizing differences originally introduced by adam smith in such applications see brown 7 lucas 26 olson 28 thaler and rosen 36 and viscusi 40 as examples specific job characteristics measured with technical information or with worker perceptions have been used to explain differences in wage rates across individuals and jobs while there are a number of these studies there has not been a consistent pattern of support for the theory indeed with the exception of job risks many characteristics that a priori would be expected to lead to equalizing differences have often exhibited incorrect and or statistically insignificant measured effects on wages the second use for wage models has been as the basis for an index of the quality of life in urban areas in this framework households are assumed to select residential locations so as to maximize their individual welfare migration between cities provides the mechanism for an equilibrium household assignment under ideal conditions the pattern of equilibrium wage rates reflects the attributes of the cities involved see hoch 20 izraeli 23 cropper lo cropper and arriaga salinas 111 and rosen 31 as examples the purpose of this paper is to develop a model for wage rate differentials that includes both job and site characteristics and to estimate the model with a large micro data set our wage models provide estimates of a market clearing envelope which includes each of two types of past analyses as a

stoking the fires co2 emissions and economic growth abstract we examine the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions a greenhouse gas central to global warming predictions estimates derived from global panel data suggest a diminishing marginal propensity to emit mpe carbon dioxide as gdp per capita rises despite this global carbon dioxide emissions growth will continue at 1 8 percent per annum for the foreseeable future a result that is not sensitive to average output growth instead emissions growth continues because output and population will grow most rapidly in lower income nations with high mpes this latter feature emphasizes the distributional consequences of policies to reduce emissions

the economic impacts of climate change evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather fisher et al 2012 hereafter fhrs have uncovered coding and data errors in our paper deschenes and greenstone 2007 hereafter dg we acknowledge and are embarrassed by these mistakes we are grateful to fhrs for uncovering them we hope that this reply will also contribute to advancing the literature on the vital question of the impact of climate change on the us agricultural sector fhrs main critiques of dg are as follows i there are errors in the weather data and climate change projections used by dg ii the climate change projections are based on the hadley 2 model and scenarios rather than the more recent hadley 3 model and scenarios iii standard errors are biased due to spatial correlation iv the inclusion of state by year fixed effects does not leave enough weather variation to obtain meaningful estimates of the relationship between agriculture profits and weather v storage and inventory adjustment in response to yield shocks invalidate the use of annual profit data and vi fhrs argue that a better specified hedonic model produces robust estimates unlike the results reported in dg four of these critiques have little basis and we respond to them here in the introduction specifically with respect to ii the more recent daily climate predictions were not available when we wrote dg nevertheless the most important issue is providing the reliable estimates of climate change and in this note we report estimates based on the climate model we used in dg and a more recent one that we gained access to in the meantime iii in the primary table on agricultural profits dg reports two sets of standard errors with the first clustered at the county level and the second based on a variance covariance matrix that accounts for spatial correlation using the method proposed in conley 1999 thus the claim of fhrs 2012 seems overblown nevertheless to ease comparisons of papers in this literature this note will adopt the fhrs convention of reporting estimated standard errors clustered at the county and state levels we find that inference is largely unaffected by the choice between these different assumptions about the variance covariance matrix

going home evacuation migration decisions of hurricane katrina survivors in the wake of hurricane katrina many evacuees from the gulf region began the difficult process of deciding whether to rebuild or restart elsewhere we examine pre katrina gulf residents decision to return to the postdisaster gulf region which we call the return migration decision we estimate two separate return migration models first using data from a mail survey of individuals in the affected region and then focusing on self administered questionnaires of evacuees in houston our results indicate that return migration can be affected by household income age education level and employment marital and home ownership status but the results depend on the population under consideration we find no effect of connection to place on the return migration decision although the effect of income is relatively small within subsamples we find a much higher proportion of middle income households planning to return than lower income households when comparing across the subsamples in addition the real wage differential between home and host region influences the likelihood of return larger implicit costs in terms of foregone wages for returning induce a lower likelihood of return exploiting this difference at the individual level we are able to produce estimates of willingness to pay wtp to return home average wtp to return home for a sample of relatively poor households is estimated at 1 94 per hour or 3954 per year

dynamite in the ekc tunnel inconsistencies in resource stock analysis under the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis recent studies incorporating consumption into the relationship between gdp and conservation increasingly reveal that economic prosperity does not lead to improvements in environmental quality even in cases where rich countries may appear to protect a greater proportion of their domestic resources this study reinforces those findings for forest and species conservation across two groups of countries additionally through explicit comparison with two previous ekc studies i enable an illustration of precisely how ekc results are affected by the incorporation of consumption and highlight persistent problems with ekc analyses despite general linear modeling results showing that wealthy countries drive deforestation in poorer countries through the import of forest resources ekc analyses can still indicate improvements in conservation for wealthier countries such contradictions suggest that recent methodological improvements to the ekc cannot guarantee the validity of evidence from ekc analyses poor quality of resource stocks data the restrictive time scales that can be examined with those data and the lack of consistent results across different groups of countries all speak to continued inadequacies of the ekc hypothesis and the need to focus on approaches that address actual behavior patterns exhibited by different income groups

global warming discounting is not the issue but substitutability is the cost benefit study of nordhaus 1994 is representative for the neoclassical approach towards global warming nordhaus found that no substantial emission cuts are warranted most of his critics have concentrated on the issue of discounting and demanded that a lower discount rate should be applied these criticisms first miss the point and second lead to ethically dubious inconsistent conclusions and inefficient policy choices they miss the point because the real problem of nordhaus s methodology is his implicit underlying assumption of perfect substitutability between natural and other forms of capital given the validity of this assumption lowering the rate of discount is inconsistent with current savings behaviour is ethically dubious because future generations will be much richer than the current one anyway and is inefficient because scarce financial resources are channelled into emissions abatement that exhibits rates of return far inferior to alternative public investments any call for aggressive emission abatement must therefore directly attack the perfect substitutability assumption of neoclassical economics the real disagreement is about whether consumption growth can compensate for environmental degradation caused by global warming discounting is not the issue but substitutability is

the value of adaption climate change and timberland management abstract adaptation to exogenous change occurs on both intensive and extensive margins whether and how one accounts for human adaptation directly affects estimates of the economic consequences of environmental change estimates that are both critical in informing policy decisions and notoriously difficult to value this paper introduces and applies an analytical framework for placing an economic value on adaptation we explore the issue first in a stylized model that facilitates making concrete generalizations about the kinds of adaptations that generate high or low economic value we then test the soundness of our insights by incorporating learning and adaptive decision making into a structural dynamic forestry model where climate change is imposed exogenously and agents respond optimally using downscaled climate projections integrated with site and species specific timber productivity data we estimate the economic value of adaptation to climate change within the california timber industry we find on the intensive margin changing the rotation intervals will yield a low value of adaptation but on the extensive margin replanting more suitable tree species can yield significant value

bidding for firms recently toyota sought a plant location in the united states the 800 million plant will employ 3000 workers and numerous states offered toyota generous investment incentives hoping this would induce toyota to select their state the commonwealth of kentucky won this competition but the price was high the present value of the payments exceeds 125 million the payment of investment incentives for the toyota plant is not unique in 1976 pennsylvania paid 75 million to attract a volkswagen plan nissan honda and mazda received generous investment incentives when locating plants in the united states and this bidding is not limited to states to attract the headquarters of the presbyterian church usa with its 1300 jobs and 38 million annual payroll civic leaders in louisville kentucky offered the church a warehouse and 6 2 million for renovation of the structure bidding the church away from kansas city missouri in this paper we contend that this competition may result from the average cost pricing of publicly provided goods and services 2 when the marginal cost of providing a firm and its workers with public services is less than the tax revenue they generate a government may offer the firm subsidies that reduce the distortions the average cost pricing of the public service creates thus this competition for industry is not a zero sum game where the subsidies are only transfers from the government to the firm rather these subsidies may facilitate the efficient location of industry

global observation of ekc hypothesis for co2 sox and nox emission a policy understanding for climate change mitigation in bangladesh abstract environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis is critical to understanding the developmental path of a nation in relation to its environment how the effects of economic development processes dictate environmental changes can be found through the study of ekc to understand the ekc phenomena for climate change this study was undertaken by reviewing the available literature as co2 sox and nox are the significant greenhouse gases ghg responsible for global warming thus leading to climate change the study focused on those ghgs for ekc consideration with an understanding of the different ekc trajectories an attempt was made to determine the implications for the economic development of bangladesh in regards to the ekc it was shown that ekc for co2 was following a monotonous straight line in most cases sox were shown to follow the full trajectory of the ekc in most situations and nox was shown the hope only for the developed countries getting the low income turning point the type of economic policy that bangladesh should follow in regards to the discussed pollutants and sources is also revealed from these discussions contributions to policy stimulation in bangladesh are likely to be made

environmental degradation in developing countries households and the reverse environmental kuznets curve abstract we propose an alternative explanation for the inverted u shape relationship between income and environmental degradation in developing countries production and consumption patterns of rural households are the main cause of environmental damage with a conventional household model we demonstrate that the so called environmental kuznets curve may arise when the restrictive assumption of a set of perfect markets for factors and commodities is relaxed depending on the criterion or indicator that is used to represent environmental pressure however we demonstrate that the reverse may also hold this finding highlights the importance of selecting the appropriate dependent variable in regression analyses

economic implications of climate change for u s agriculture assessing recent evidence recent studies estimate potential economic impacts of climate change on u s agriculture while results are not directly comparable several big picture lessons can be drawn these broader findings are developed and put into a policy context while the estimated impacts on u s agriculture and the u s economy do not yet justify costly adaptation or mitigation strategies some regional and environmental impacts could be quite severe current policy efforts should focus on reducing climate change uncertainties and increasing farm sector flexibility from a national perspective future agreements to limit greenhouse gas emissions could be partially met through adjustments of farm practices

environmental kuznets curve for co2 in canada abstract according to the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis the relationship between per capita gdp and per capita pollutant emissions has an inverted u shape this implies that past a certain point economic growth may actually be profitable for environmental quality most studies on this subject are based on estimating fully parametric quadratic or cubic regression models while this is not technically wrong such an approach somewhat lacks flexibility since it may fail to detect the true shape of the relationship if it happens not to be of the specified form we use semiparametric and flexible nonlinear parametric modeling methods in an attempt to provide more robust inferences we find little evidence in favour of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis our main results could be interpreted as indicating that the oil shock of the 1970s has had an important impact on progress towards less polluting technology and production

climate change irrigation and israeli agriculture will warming be harmful the authors use a ricardian model to test the relationship between annual net revenues and climate across israeli farms they find that it is important to include the amount of irrigation water available to each farm in order to measure the response of farms to climate with irrigation water omitted the model predicts that climate change is strictly beneficial but with water included the model predicts that only modest climate changes are beneficial while drastic climate change in the long run will be harmful using the atmospheric oceanic global circulation models scenarios the authors show that farm net revenue is expected to increase by 16 percent in 2020 while in 2100 farm net revenue is expected to drop by 60 390 percent varying between the different scenarios although israel has a relatively warm climate a mild increase in temperature is beneficial due to the ability to supply international markets with farm products early in the season the findings lead to the conclusion that securing water rights to the farmers and international trade agreements can be important policy measures to help farmers adapt to climate change

is there an environmental kuznets curve for deforestation abstract this paper examines the relationship between deforestation and gross domestic product gdp per capita in particular whether an inverted u relationship indicative of worsening then improving deforestation exists between them we note that previous work has used models with restrictive assumptions and recommend a more flexible random coefficients specification which allows for a greater degree of cross country heterogeneity empirical results using data for 76 developing countries between 1961 1992 suggest that the inverted u shaped relationship observed in other studies does not appear to be an empirical regularity with our less restrictive specification statistical tests indicate that this specification is supported by the data we argue that such results are not surprising in view of the wide diversity of physical and social characteristics that exist across countries

the interaction of population growth and environmental quality an important question for policy is whether holding constant per capita income and other relevant factors population pressures have a significant effect upon environmental degradation the authors examine the effect of population pressures upon deforestation in 64 developing countries in an attempt to provide relevant empirical findings data on deforestation were drawn from the food and agriculture organizations production yearbook results suggest that a relationship exists between per capita income and deforestation and that for africa rural population density shifts the relationship upward the increase in the rate of deforestation levels off as income increases the rate of growth in per capita income also has a significant negative impact upon deforestation although the magnitude of the effect is small the authors close in stressing that reducing the rate of population growth is not necessarily the best way to reduce the rate of deforestation deforestation in developing countries is really a problem of market failure since property rights are often neither defined nor enforced there is essentially no private cost of deforestation with no long term stake in the land people have no incentive to use land efficiently this situation must be addressed in conjunction with the problems of poverty and population growth

new estimates of climate demand evidence from location choice abstract we develop and apply to census data a new method for estimating climate demand the method is useful for ranking quality of life based upon a willingness to pay criterion our two major findings are that the willingness to pay quality of life index is correlated with the hedonic approach s ranking but that the migration approach generates much larger estimates of willingness to pay for a more moderate climate this finding is relevant for evaluating the economic impact of global warming

is the choice of renewable portfolio standards random this study investigated factors influencing the adoption or intention to adopt renewable portfolio standards rps by individual states in the united states u s theory of adoption of innovation was applied as a conceptual framework a logistic model was used to achieve the task gross state product gsp growth rate of population grp political party dominancy education level natural resources expenditure and share of coal in electricity generation were used as explanatory variables results indicated that the model predicts the dependent variable state s choice of adopting or not adopting rps 82 times correctly out of 100 results also suggested that education followed by political party dominancy gsp and grp are shown to have large impacts on the probability of rps adoption

life satisfaction dynamics with quarterly life event data using life satisfaction responses from australian panel data we examine the questions of when and to what extent individuals are affected by major positive and negative life events including changes in financial situation marital status death of a close relative and being the victim of crime the key advantage of our data is that we are able to identify these events on a quarterly basis rather than on the yearly basis used by previous studies we find evidence that life events are not randomly distributed that individuals anticipate major events to a large extent and that they fully adapt to many events within 12 months the estimates can be used to calculate monetary values needed to compensate individuals for life events using a new valuation methodology that incorporates these dynamic factors produces considerably smaller compensation valuations than those calculated using the standard approach

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

the amenity value of the italian climate the hedonics literature suggests that locations with more favourable characteristics should display compensating wage and house price differentials specifying climate in terms of january and july averages estimates of the marginal willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables are derived using this technique applied to italian data italians would prefer a drier climate during the winter months but higher summertime temperatures are shown to reduce welfare in some locations households would prefer to see clearer skies these results may have relevance to the task of determining the economic impact of future climate change c 2003 elsevier science usa all rights reserved

combining price and quantity controls to mitigate global climate change abstract uncertainty about compliance costs causes otherwise equivalent price and quantity controls to behave differently and leads to divergent welfare consequences although most of the debate on global climate change policy has focused on quantity controls due to their political appeal this paper argues that price controls are more efficient simulations based on a stochastic computable general equilibrium model indicate that the expected welfare gain from the optimal price policy is five times higher than the expected gain from the optimal quantity policy an alternative hybrid policy combines both the political appeal of quantity controls with the efficiency of prices using an initial distribution of tradeable permits to set a quantitative target but allowing additional permits to be purchased at a fixed trigger price even sub optimal hybrid policies offer dramatic efficiency improvements over otherwise standard quantity controls for example a 50 trigger price per ton of carbon converts the 3 trillion expected loss associated with a simple 1990 emission target to a 150 billion gain these results suggest that a hybrid policy is an attractive alternative to either a pure price or quantity system

structural change power politics and community organizations in africa challenging the patterns puzzles and paradoxes abstract this paper explores two phenomena shaping processes of local institutional and organizational change in rural africa the first is the complexity of institutional layering and dissonance in which local organizations and institutions in rural africa coexist the second is the paradox often found in state local relations in africa central governments encourage local communities to take on responsibilities which the center cannot manage should significant organizational strength emerge at the local level however central powers often move expeditiously to destroy it illustrative material comes primarily from kenya and zimbabwe and selectively from several other countries we ask what new structures are emerging and what old ones are being adapted to new functions we argue that local organizations are critical for addressing ecological decline and restoring the productivity and sustainability of rural africa both localities and national governments have much to gain if the capacities of local organizations can become themselves a valued resource in the resource scarce setting comprising much of rural africa

causality between income and emission a country group specific econometric analysis abstract empirical studies of the environmental kuznets curve ekc examine the presence or otherwise of an inverted u shaped relationship between the level of pollution and the level of income customarily in the diagram of ekc the level of income is shown on the horizontal axis and that of pollution on the vertical axis thus it is presumed that the relationship between income and pollution is one of unidirectional causality with income causing environmental changes and not vice versa the validity of this presumption is now being questioned it is being asserted that the nature and direction of causality may vary from one country to the other in this paper we present the results of a study of income co 2 emission causality based on a granger causality test to cross country panel data on per capita income and the corresponding per capita co 2 emission data briefly our results indicate three different types of causality relationship holding for different country groups for the developed country groups of north america and western europe and also for eastern europe the causality is found to run from emission to income for the country groups of central and south america oceania and japan causality from income to emission is obtained finally for the country groups of asia and africa the causality is found to be bi directional the regression equations estimated as part of the granger causality test further suggest that for the country groups of north america and western europe the growth rate of emission has become stationary around a zero mean and a shock in the growth rate of emission tends to generate a corresponding shock in the growth rate of income in contrast for the country groups of central and south america oceania and japan a shock in the income growth rate is likely to result in a corresponding shock in the growth rate of emission finally causality being bi directional for the country groups of asia and africa the income and the emission growth rates seemed to reinforce each other

macroeconomic conditions in the u s and congressional voting on environmental policy 1970 2008 using the environmental scorecard ratings of congressmen and senators published annually by the league of conservation voters we explore empirically whether political support for pro environment legislation aggregated across each legislative body is sensitive over time to changing economic conditions that is whether there is a political trade off between economic conditions and the environment using lcv scorecard ratings from 1970 to 2008 we find evidence consistent across both the house and senate that political support for the environment is related to per capita income but this general tendency can be decomposed into sharp differences by party

estimating the net implicit price of energy efficient building codes on u s households abstract requiring energy efficiency building codes raises housing prices or the monthly rental equivalent but theoretically this effect might be fully offset by reductions in household energy expenditures whether there is a full compensating differential or how much households are paying implicitly is an empirical question this study estimates the net implicit price of energy efficient buildings codes iecc 2003 through iecc 2006 for american households using sample data from the american community survey 2007 a heteroskedastic seemingly unrelated estimation approach is used to estimate hedonic price house rent and energy expenditure models the value of energy efficiency building codes is capitalized into housing rents which are estimated to increase by 23 25 percent with the codes however the codes provide households a compensating differential of about a 6 47 percent reduction about 7 71 in monthly energy expenditure results indicate that the mean household net implicit price for these codes is about 140 87 per month in 2006 dollars 163 19 in 2013 dollars however this estimated price is shown to vary significantly by region energy type and the rent gradient

corruption and the environmental kuznets curve empirical evidence for sulfur abstract we investigate how corruption influences the income level at the turning point of the relationship between sulfur emissions and income using a wide cross national panel of countries at different levels of development and with different degrees of corruption our results support the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis for sulfur we find evidence that the higher the country s degree of corruption the higher the per capita income at the turning point suggesting different income pollution paths across countries due to corruption we build upon a new specification for the ekc developed by bradford et al 2005 that avoids using nonlinear transformations of potentially nonstationary regressors in panel estimation also we account for the indirect impact of corruption on emissions through its impact on per capita income our main findings remain unchanged when we investigate additional heterogeneity allowing for different income slopes across richer and poorer countries

towards an integrated framework for development and environment policy the dynamics of environmental kuznets curves abstract environmental kuznets curves ekcs have recently received considerable attention in development and environment policy but little is known on how the interaction between ecological and economic factors may result in an ekc or other qualitatively different outcomes we introduce a restricted class of vector valued differential equations for representing the evolution of socioeconomic and environmental variables which influence or are influenced by the process of economic development our model includes not only the complete path of each variable over time but also the highly critical interactions among multiple variables we demonstrate analytically and numerically that among a multiplicity of possible outcomes an inverted u pattern can only be obtained under specific circumstances and requires attention to the multiple factors which form the economic environmental system rather than a single dominant one

uncertainty and climate change uncertainty is pervasive in analysis of climate change how should economists allow for this and how have they allowed for it this paper reviews both of

kuznets type relationship between water use and economic growth in china economic growth cannot completely explain water use patterns as many other factors also affect the amount of water use using province level panel data this research explores the relationship between water use and economic growth in china by analyzing multiple factors ipat identity which conventionally includes three factors is expanded to elucidate five driving factors of water use population affluence technology urbanization and industrial structure a quadratic model a cubic model and a piecewise regression model are tested and analyzed full sample and region sample over the period from 2003 to 2014 are investigated results show that first all the five factors studied have positive effects on water use at both national and regional scales population is the most influential factor at the national scale as well as in the eastern region and technology plays the most important role in the central and the western regions second there is a clear inverted u shape relationship between water consumption and economic growth and the inflection point of water consumption occurs at 35 477 rmb per capita gdp as measured in 2000 constant price in this regard water use has not reached the inflection point at either national or any of the regional scales it is concluded that water use in china will rise in the coming years and is expected to reach the inflection point in 2021

agriculture and climate change in global scenarios why don t the models agree agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change the production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs temperature solar radiation available to the plant and precipitation previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices production and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification this article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture by harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects differences in model outcomes were reduced the particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects all models respond with higher prices producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response demand response is least important the differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future the results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to monte carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty

trade policies economic growth and the direct causes of deforestation by ramon lopez gregmar i galinato please send correspondence to ramon lopez 2200 symons hall university of maryland college park md 20742 email rlopez arec umd edu tel 301 405 1281 fax 301 314 9091 gregmar i galinato 2200 symons hall university of maryland college park md 20742 email ggalinato arec umd edu tel 301 405 0477 fax 301 314 9091

economic growth and co2 emissions in malaysia a cointegration analysis of the environmental kuznets curve this paper attempts to establish a long run as well as causal relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide co2 emissions for malaysia using data for the years from 1980 to 2009 the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis was tested utilizing the auto regressive distributed lag ardl methodology the empirical results suggest the existence of a long run relationship between per capita co2 emissions and real per capita gross domestic product gdp when the co2 emissions level is the dependent variable we found an inverted u shape relationship between co2 emissions and gdp in both short and long run thus supporting the ekc hypothesis the granger causality test based on the vector error correction model vecm presents an absence of causality between co2 emissions and economic growth in the short run while demonstrating uni directional causality from economic growth to co2 emissions in the long run

does poverty constrain deforestation econometric evidence from peru this paper examines the relationship between income and land clearing for households living in tropical forest regions a simple model of the agricultural household that clears land for agriculture is developed to investigate the relationship between lagged income and cleared land holdings analysis of panel data from peru suggests that lagged income is positively correlated with clearing though at a decreasing rate and because of labor market constraints clearing is positively correlated with household labor availability this work suggests that small increases in the incomes of the poorest are unlikely to reduce deforestation in this context

adapting natural resource enterprises under global warming in south america a mixed logit analysis this paper develops an integrated model of adapting natural resource intensive enterprises in latin america to future climate changes based on about 2 000 rural household surveys we model six specialized and diversified resource enterprises across seventeen land covers we estimate random coefficients of climatic parameters with a mixed logit model by 2020 under a hotter and drier ccc scenario crops only and cropforests enterprises are predicted to fall by 6 2 and 0 6 respectively offsetting these losses livestock only enterprise increases by 5 5 and crops livestock forests enterprise increases by 0 7 these changes magnify over time through 2060 by which time the crops livestock enterprise increases by more than 5 adaptation measures should be designed in a manner that captures the unique characteristics of latin american ecosystems

is the environmental kuznets curve for deforestation a threatened theory a meta analysis of the literature abstract although widely studied deforestation remains a common research topic the relationship between economic development and deforestation is still in question this paper presents a meta analysis of environmental kuznets curve ekc studies for deforestation using 69 studies offering 547 estimations we shed light on why ekc results differ we investigate the incidence of choices made by authors such as econometric strategy measure of deforestation geographical area and presence of control variables on the probability of finding an ekc after a phase of work corroborating the ekc we find a turning point after the year 2001 building on our results we conclude that the ekc story will not fade until theoretical alternatives are provided

deforestation and the environmental kuznets curve an institutional perspective institutions for secure property rights and better environmental policies for moving the system towards a sustainable growth path can reduce the height of an environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between income and deforestation this study examines the impact of these specific institutional factors on the ekc relationship for deforestation across latin american african and asian countries the factors related to agricultural production population economy and governmental policies of each country are hypothesised to affect deforestation results of the latin american countries show significant evidence of an ekc relationship for deforestation and also relevance of the institutional factors to reduce the rate of deforestation improvements in institutions for secure property rights and better environmental policies can thus significantly reduce the rate of deforestation without hindering the level of economic growth evidence also suggests that the effect of agricultural production on deforestation could be halted by strengthening institutional factors there was found to be complementarity between the institutional factors and forest sector polices and an additive effect between the institutional factors and forest products export promotion policies which could also eventually reduce the rate of deforestation

the income temperature relationship in a cross section of countries and its implications for predicting the effects of global warming hotter countries are poorer on average this paper attempts to separate the historical and contemporaneous components of this income temperature relationship following ideas by acemoglu et al am econ rev 91 5 1369 1401 2001 we use colonial mortality data to account for the historical role of temperature since colonial mortality was highly correlated with countries average temperatures the remaining income temperature gradient after colonial mortality is accounted for is most likely contemporaneous this contemporaneous effect can be used to estimate the consequences of global warming we predict that a 1 c temperature increase across all countries will cause a decrease of 3 8 in world gdp this prediction is robust across functional forms and an alternative method for separating historical effects

economic structure development policy and environmental quality an empirical analysis of environmental kuznets curves with chinese municipal data in many cases the relationship between environmental pollution and economic development can be generally depicted by an inverted u shaped curve or an environmental kuznets curve where pollution increases with income at the beginning and decreases after a certain level of income however what determine the shape of an enviornmental kuznets curve such as the height and the turning point of the curve have not been thoroughly studied a good understanding of the determinants is vitally important to the development community especially for the developing world where income growth is a high priority and yet environmental pollution also needs to be carefully controlled this study analyzes the impacts of economic structure development strategy and environmental regulation on the shape of the environmental kuznets curve with a city level panel dataset obtained from china the results show that economic structure development strategy and environmental regulation can all have important implications on the relationship between environmental environmental quality and economic development but the impacts can be different at different development stages

nonlinearities and heterogeneity in environmental quality an empirical analysis of deforestation we use a panel data set of 59 developing countries over the 1972 1994 period to study the deforestation process relying on both parametric and semiparametric models we examine nonlinearities and heterogeneity in the deforestation process we first study the existence of an environmental kuznets curve ekc and then analyze determinants of deforestation our data sample provides no evidence of an ekc we also find that political institution failures may worsen the deforestation process in developing countries

redd and forest transition tunneling through the environmental kuznets curve abstract international attention is focused on finding ways to reduce emissions from deforestation because of the emerging concerns over climate change however the causes of deforestation are rooted in current economic and development paradigms the causes of deforestation also vary across different geographical regions and have implications for the forest transition attempts to reach an international agreement on curbing deforestation have achieved little success despite over 30 years of un negotiations new initiatives from redd reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation could provide financial incentives to curb deforestation hence alternative development paths for forest cover changes and forest transition are analyzed for the redd policy within the framework of an environmental kuznets curve ekc for deforestation the ekc models are estimated for geographical regions of latin america africa and asia the results based on the panel data analysis of 43 countries covering the period 1970 1994 provides evidence that an inverted u shaped ekc fits for latin america and africa while a u shaped ekc applies to asia the results also indicate that strengthening agricultural and forestry sector policies are important for curbing deforestation the ekc models estimates could provide guidance for decisions on financing the redd policy as specific to each region

the impact of global warming on agriculture reply in our paper with daigee shaw mendelsohn et al 1994 henceforth mns we developed a new approach to measuring the impact of global warming on agriculture we call this approach ricardian because it relies upon standard rent theory as a way of identifying the impact of changes on net economic welfare we compared the ricardian approach with the traditional production function approach which uses agricultural production functions but has great difficulty identifying all the other adjustments that farmers make in response to changing external conditions the ricardian approach is particularly well suited to a tremendously heterogeneous sector because it can rely upon reduced form estimation and does not require the impossible task of constructing structural models of hundreds of crops in thousands of locations estimating the model using cross sectional data on climate farm land prices and other economic and geophysical data for almost 3 000 counties in the united states the ricardian approach shows a significantly lower estimated impact of global warming than the traditional productionfunction approach indeed our preferred statistical approach showed modest benefits of climate change in his comment on mns in this issue of the review william r cline 1996 raises three concerns first he notes that the analysis assumes that output prices remain constant second he asserts that the analysis assumes that the supply of water for irrigation is perfectly elastic third he calls for testing the results of the model on alternative climate scenarios from general circulation models gcm s his first and third points are useful additions while the second is incorrect our ricardian approach assumes that the existing pattern of agricultural land rents and land prices reflects the long run equilibrium economic effect of climate and other geophysical and economic variables standard economic reasoning shows that by calculating the estimated effects of perturbing the climatic variables we can project the impact of climate change on economic welfare we do so in a partial equilibrium approach which assumes that output prices are invariant to the climate and cline is correct to point out that this might lead to biased estimates because the partialequilibrium estimates tend to underestimate damages and overestimate benefits in fact the bias is small given standard parameters for agricultural demand and supply functions we illustrate this point using linear supply and demand functions for agricultural crops let demand be given by qd ao a1p while supply is q po pi p where q and p are output and price and ai and i are parameters in equilibrium at the old climate market outcomes are qo and po now suppose that global warming contracts supply so that

water use and economic growth reconsidering the environmental kuznets curve relationship abstract predictions of national and global water use have been criticized for being inaccurate and for not taking into consideration economic development of the little research that does address water use as a function of economic development results are inconsistent but much claims to find clear evidence of an environmental kuznets curves ekc or inverted u type relationship this research attempts to elucidate the relationship between income growth and freshwater use by a evaluating a variety of cross sectional and panel datasets on water withdrawals and consumptive use b employing both traditional least squares and non parametric regression analysis the latter of which offers the advantage of not assuming a given functional form c testing both per capita and total water use and d comparing water withdrawals to consumptive use the research finds some support for the existence of an ekc but results are highly dependent on choice of datasets and statistical technique results are also sector specific and ekc curves prove to be poor indicators of individual country behavior as such the study points to limitations of ekcs in terms of water use policy and planning

the politics of government ngo relations in africa abstract non governmental organizations ngos deservedly or not have gained a reputation as the leading practitioners of rural development in africa african governments have responded ambiguously to the presence of these new agencies on the one hand valuing the economic resources ngos can raise but resisting the political pluralization implied by popular development action this article describes the growth of ngos in africa and proposes a framework for analyzing the dynamics of government ngo relations by means of examples drawn from kenya and zimbabwe among other african countries the article illustrates the strategies used by governments to exercise control and by ngos to assert autonomy an argument is made that politics rather than economics best explain the contribution of ngos to development as well as the attitude of governments toward the burgeoning voluntary sector

energy consumption income and carbon emissions in the united states abstract this paper investigates the effect of energy consumption and output on carbon emissions in the united states earlier research focused on testing the existence and or shape of an environmental kuznets curve without taking energy consumption into account we investigate the granger causality relationship between income energy consumption and carbon emissions including labor and gross fixed capital formation in the model we find that income does not granger cause carbon emissions in the us in the long run but energy use does hence income growth by itself may not become a solution to environmental problems

energy and depletable resources economics and policy 1973 1998 abstract this paper reviews the impact of the literature in depletable resources and energy economics over the period 1973 1998 particularly the initial period of publication of the journal of environmental economics and management 1974 1998 a discussion of prominent policy issues in this arena is provided along with an indication of what academic economics papers have contributed to that debate this is followed by a citation analysis of contributions in the fields of energy and exhaustible resource economics for each of these two fields a list of the top papers in each five year period from 1974 to 1998 is presented along with a list of the top journals in each decade based on average citations per article the top ten cited articles in the fields in the journal of environmental economics and management are also presented

a ricardian model of climate change in canada a comparative static ricardian model is used to establish relationships between climate and agricultural land value in canada from these relationships agricultural costs of climate change scenarios are estimated this study is motivated partly by evidence of potential agricultural benefits of climate change from a similar analysis of the united states by mendelsohn nordhaus and shaw and partly by the void of canadian studies furthermore it extends the analysis to non uniform climate change scenarios its finding of a slightly positive upper bound on the agricultural benefits from climate change within a wide margin of error is motivation for further analysis un modele ricardien de changement climatique au canada l auteur utilise un modele statique ricardien classique pour etablir des relations entre le climat et la valeur des terres agricoles au canada a partir de ces relations on calibre les couts agricoles de divers scenarios de changement climatique cette etude a pris forme en partie en reaction aux resultats d une analyse similaire de mendelsohn nordhaus et shaw aux etats unis et en partie en reponse a un manque d etudes de ce genre au canada cet article etend les analyses aux scenarios de changements climatiques non uniformes les resultats suggerent qu il existe une sorte de borne positive superieure aux avantages agricoles du changement climatique a l interieur d une marge d erreur assez vaste voila qui encourage a poursuivre les analyses

riding the wave of urban growth in the countryside spread backwash or stagnation the advisability of an urban centered growth strategy to reap the benefits of urban agglomeration economies is much debated rural areas benefit when the growth spreads to the hinterlands especially within daily commuting distance yet in distant peripheral locations urban growth may create a backwash as households relocate to the urban center this study examines spread vs backwash as separate from long run distance from urban center trend effects using a novel canadian gis database the unique nation wide approach yields a spread and backwash rural growth topography that varies by distance from the urban center by urban population vs income growth and by size of rural community