the cost of road infrastructure in low and middle income countries the connections between transport infrastructure and economic development have been extensively analyzed in previous research but little is known about the cost of infrastructure investments in poor countries this paper examines drivers of unit costs of construction and maintenance of transport infrastructure in low and middle income countries and documents that i there is a large dispersion in unit costs for comparable road work activities ii after accounting for environmental drivers of costs residual unit costs are significantly higher in conflict countries iii there is evidence that costs are higher in countries with higher levels of corruption iv these effects are robust to controlling for a country s public investment capacity and business environment our findings have implications for governments aiming to increase connectivity in poor countries

new perspectives on capital sticky prices and the taylor principle abstract our main result is that dynamic new keynesian dnk models with firm specific capital feature a substantial amount of endogenous price stickiness we use this insight to assess the desirability of alternative interest rate rules and make the case for combining active monetary policy with interest rate smoothing and or some responsiveness of the nominal interest rate to real economic activity the key mechanism behind our results is also useful from a positive point of view the feature of firm specific capital increases the empirical appealingness of dnk models as documented by a growing body of literature

risk allocation and the costs and benefits of public private partnerships we study the agency costs of delegated public service provision focusing on the link between organizational forms and uncertainty at project implementation we consider a dynamic multitask moral hazard environment where the mapping between efiort and performance is ex ante uncertain but new information may come along during operations our analysis points out at the e ciency gains that bundling planning and implementation as under public private partnerships can bring in terms of better project design and lower operational costs bundling also results in increasingly better performance as uncertainty is reduced by growing experience in the sector bundling should instead be viewed with caution when the private sector seeks to radically innovate on public service provision or to introduce new services but lacks the knowledge and expertise to anticipate the impact of the innovative design procedure technology on the cost of operations the compounding of asymmetric information ex post plus moral hazard and renegotiation may generate diseconomies of scope in agency costs which for high operational risk can make unbundling optimal in this context the use of private flnance can help re establishing the beneflt of bundling only if lenders have su cient expertise to help assessing project risks

intertemporal substitution of effort some empirical evidence the labour economics literature refers often to effort but there is little empirical evidence as to how productivity and effort respond to wage rate variations an unusual natural experiment in which wage rates suffered an exogenous change of two weeks duration gives some insight into the magnitude of this effect for a group of workers in victorian county durham the effort response measured as the impact of a temporary wage rate change on output per shift dominates the response of attendance comparison of the estimates presented here with those in treble journal of economic history 61 414 38 2001 suggests that the effects are short lived

a theory of sticky rents search and bargaining with incomplete information abstract this paper offers the first theoretical explanation of housing rent stickiness and differential stickiness by housing structure type key features of rental markets worldwide previous theoretical work on the subject is sparse and explains why some landlords charge below market rents not stickiness apart from its interest for understanding housing markets and overall inflation rent stickiness is intriguing because it shows that stickiness can emerge in markets where the typical menu cost logic does not apply and where market participants typically engage in repeated bargaining over contracts our model involves search and bargaining with incomplete information in a two period game and generates stickiness in a novel manner the key decision is the landlord s choice of whether to renegotiate or not crucially landlords do not know tenant perceptions of unit quality the key force generating stickiness is that offering the identical contract preempts tenant search thus limiting tenants outside options and resolves uncertainty early risk aversion reinforces this mechanism and yields differential stickiness by landlord type renegotiation risk for large landlords disappears because the different outcomes rent increase rent decrease and vacancy average out landlords who manage only one unit loathe vacancy and are highly motivated to avoid renegotiation

political competition and policy adoption market reforms in latin american public utilities on y docencia econ omicas this article shows that political competition generates incentives that affect the pace of adoption of market reforms in the context of policy convergence previous work shows the effect of financial and technological pressures in promoting policy convergence and the impact of institutional constraints on shaping the pace of policymaking controlling for these effects this article demonstrates the policy effects of political competition and ideological polarization even at a time when ideological policy differences seem to be fading due to policy convergence this article studies policy adoption using duration analysis for the 18 countries of latin america during the 1985 2000 period when most of the market reforms in public utilities were adopted s tudies of market reforms in latin america have typically emphasized the common financial and technological pressures that limited the ability of incumbents to impose their ideological preferences on policy adoption during the 1980s and 1990s this article shows that although it is true that the ideology of incumbents cannot fully explain policy adoption political competition and the relative ideology of challengers did shape the incentives of policymakers and thus played a significant role in the adoption of market reforms the article shows these effects on the market reforms of latin american public utilities which have been widely regarded as an example of policy convergence market oriented reforms in telecoms and electricity including the privatization of assets the liberalization of markets and the separation of regulatory authority from operations spread rapidly around the globe and especially through latin america

infrastructure and development a critical appraisal of the macro level literature this survey reviews the existing macro level empirical literature on the link between infrastructure and development outcomes in a critical light after providing a general framework that casts the relevant terms of the controversy on the real effect of infrastructure on growth in the context of an aggregate production function it signals what are the relevant empirical questions to be addressed this guides the systematic review of a number of empirical studies and the discussion of the main econometric challenges to the identification of the effect of infrastructure on output and productivity finally building on related research in particular in contract theory and political economy the paper spells out several promising research avenues

retirement in dual career families a structural model a structural econometric model of retirement of dual career couples is specified and estimated with panel data from the national longitudinal survey of mature women a coincidence of spouses retiring together despite the younger ages of wives suggests explicit efforts at coordination the estimates suggest that one reason is a correlation of tastes for leisure more important each spouse and perhaps husbands in particular values retirement more once their spouse has retired the opportunity set accounts for peaks in the retirement hazards of each spouse individually but not for peaks in the simultaneous retirement of both spouses

moral hazard with several agents abstract we consider a situation in which a principal hires two agents whose cooperation is technically profitable and study three models that incorporate different assumptions about the agents cooperative behavior we find a close relationship between the agents commitment capacity and the characteristics of the optimal contract a greater capacity to cooperate leads to more efficient outcomes we also show that unless agents form a team the efficient level of mutual help is not achieved in equilibrium

an empirical analysis of the daily labor supply of stadium venors this paper analyzes the daily labor supply behavior of food and beverage vendors at a single stadium over an entire baseball season this labor market is attractive for the study of labor supply both because ofvendors unilateraly decide whether to participate on each game date and because canges in product demand conditions across days are large and highly predictable generating exogenous game to game variation in the vendor wage i exploit the observable shift in product demand conditions across games to esumate the labor supply participation elasticity of stadium vendors estimates that recognize that demand conditions and vendor labor supply decisions simultancously determine the venofdor wage always find substantial labor supply elasticities typically in the 55 65 range in contract estimates that ignore the endoreneity of the ties these results highlight the imporatance of using demand shift markets

corruption and infrastructure at the country and regional level abstractthis paper examines the relationship between corruption and infrastructure at both the country and regional level using the world bank s enterprise surveys data a statistically significant and considerable relationship is established between the measure of corruption in the macro data and the measures of transportation and electricity infrastructure countries with more corruption tend to have worse infrastructure at the regional level the key result is unchanged the magnitude and significance of this result is shown to vary by global region two stage least squares results using distance from the equator as an instrument at the macro level support the simple ordinary least squares ols finally it is shown that within country variation in corruption has a significant effect on regional infrastructure

renegotiation of concession contracts in latin america evidence from the water and transport sectors abstract high rates of contract renegotiation have raised serious questions about the viability of the concession model to attract private participation in infrastructure in developing countries after extending in reduced form a standard regulation model in which renegotiation occurs due to the imperfect enforcement of concession contracts we use a unique data set of 307 concessions awarded in latin america from 1989 to 2000 covering the sectors of transport and water to analyze the determinants of this high incidence of renegotiations of infrastructure contracts we look in details at the impact on the probability of renegotiation of a concession of regulatory institutions institutional features economic shocks and of the characteristics of the concession contracts themselves we then derive some policy implications of our work

comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self fulfilling expectations abstract this paper compares four equilibrium business cycle models with increasing returns to scale production technologies that allow for aggregate fluctuations due to self fulfilling expectations necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria are derived numerical examples demonstrate that the degree of increasing returns necessary for the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria lies in the upper range of available empirical estimates the paper also shows that persistent fluctuations are not a necessary property of these four models when the only source of fluctuations is changes in people s expectations about the future path of the economy journal of economic literature classification numbers e32 d43

new evidence on labor supply employment versus hours elasticities by sex and marital status using the tri annual micro panel data of the survey of income and program participation we estimate fixed effects labor supply models separating the extensive and intensive margins the employment elasticity is 0 6 for single men versus 1 1 for married men the employment elasticity is 2 4 for single women versus 1 8 for married women the compensated hours worked elasticity is 0 4 for employed single and married men and 0 7 for employed single and married women the implied aggregate employment elasticity of 1 5 and hours per employee elasticity of 0 5 indicate employment fluctuations account for three fourths of wage induced variation in labor hours

toward a theory of regulation for developing countries following jean jacques laffont s lead the efficient operation and expansion of infrastructures in developing countries is crucial for growth and poverty reduction however recent reforms aimed at improving the performance of these sectors have had limited success evidence suggests that in many instances this was because the traditional regulatory theory relied on by policymakers was not suitable for the institutional context in developing countries this article surveys more recent theoretical work focusing on problems with regulation in these countries at the heart of the survey is the work of jean jacques laffont who in the last decade of his life set about developing a theoretical framework for regulation in developing countries we consider the implications of his work which focused on the key institutional limitations faced in developing countries we then discuss where experience suggests that there are important omissions from this modeling bringing in extensions and alternative approaches pursued by other authors we conclude by summarizing the key ways in which regulatory policy will be different when institutions are weak overall we find that an understanding of the institutional context and its implications are crucial when designing a regulatory framework for developing countries

utilities privatization and the poor lessons and evidence from latin america abstract the perception that privatization hurts the poor is growing and creating a backlash against the private provision of basic infrastructure services at the same time governments are finding themselves fiscally strapped searching for ways to finance the large investments needed to expand services to the poor in latin america a laboratory for privatization evidence exists which sheds light on the privatization experience this paper analyzes the channels through which the poor might either lose or gain from privatization examines the evidence accumulated on what has actually happened and then discusses the policy options available to decision makers who want to increase efficiency while at the same time dealing with the infrastructure needs of the poor that have been identified as being important for their welfare in that context the issue of whether welfare considerations should form part of the regulatory approach to privatized services is examined the paper s major aims are to shed light on the issue of who can and does benefit from privatization of utilities and to guide policy makers in the choices

labor force dynamics of older married couples this article analyzes the dynamics of joint labor force behavior of older couples in the united states using the retirement history survey rhs i analyze the determinants of joint retirement and the effect of one spouse s labor force status on the labor force transitions of the other spouse the results reveal strong associations between the labor force transition probabilities of one spouse and the labor force status of the other spouse these result from structural differences in exit and entry behavior by the spouse s status several lagged endogenous variables have substantial effects on behavior even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity

public pension programmes and the retirement of married couples in denmark in this paper we study the economic determinants of the joint retirement process of married couples we propose a tractable dynamic discrete choice model for retirement decisions which allows for non trivial saving behaviour we estimate the model on a 1 sample of danish couples of potential retirement age drawn from a population based administrative register the introduction and subsequent reforms of a publicly financed early retirement programme provide us with variation in the data to insure identification of the parameters of interest the elasticities of participation retirement with respect to income flows our estimates imply a significant asymmetry in the sensitivity of retirement behaviour of men and women with respect to variation in their own or their spouse s income flows

taylor rules and macroeconomic instability or how the central bank can preempt sunspot expectations this paper derives new results on the effects of employing taylor rules in economies that are subject to real market imperfections such as production externalities policies which respond to output movements can block sunspot equilibria that arise from the increasing returns the paper also finds that rules which should be chosen avoided in perfect market environments often yield ensure multiple unique rational expectations solutions in alternative settings therefore exact knowledge on the degree of market imperfection may be integral for robust policy advice

a theory of soft capture in this paper wee propose a model for regulatory capture that is based on information transmission and asymmetric information in a three tier model a regulator is charged by a political principal to provide a signal for the type of a regulated firm only the firm can observe his type and the production of a correlated signal with a given accuracy is costly for the regulator the firm can costlessly provide an alternative signal of lower accuracy that is presented to the regulator in a self enforcing equilibrium the regulator transmits the firm produced signal internalizes its own savings in information cost and the firm enjoys higher information rents the main feature of soft capture is that it is not based on a reciprocity of favors but on a congruence of interests between the firm and the regulator

sticky price models of the business cycle can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem we construct a quantitative equilibrium model with firms setting prices in a staggered fashion and use it to ask whether monetary shocks can generate business cycle fluctuations these fluctuations include persistent movements in output along with the other defining features of business cycles like volatile investment and smooth consumption we assume that prices are exogenously sticky for a short time persistent output fluctuations require endogenous price stickiness in the sense that firms choose not to change prices much when they can do so we find that for a wide range of parameter values the amount of endogenous stickiness is small thus we find that in a standard quantitative model staggered price setting alone does not generate business cycle fluctuations

returns to scale market power and the nature of price rigidity in new keynesian models with self fulfilling expectations increasing returns to scale and firms market power are two potential sources of sunspot expectations in neoclassical models we show that in new keynesian models returns to scale and market power can have fundamentally different implications for broad macroeconomic issues including self fulfilling expectations depending on the nature of price rigidity our findings suggest that the design of stabilization monetary policy can depend on precise knowledge about the economy s real and nominal features therefore a clear understanding of the specific economic environment and its relevance to monetary policymaking for ensuring macroeconomic stability can be an integrated part of monetary policy practice

investment interest rate policy and equilibrium stability abstract carlstrom and fuerst 2005 investment and interest rate policy a discrete time analysis journal of economic theory 123 4 20 show that in the presence of investment activity and price stickiness indeterminacy of equilibrium is induced by forward looking monetary policy that sets the interest rate in response only to future inflation in a stochastic version of their model we find that this indeterminacy problem is due to a cost channel of monetary policy whereby inflation expectations become self fulfilling and the problem can be overcome once the forward looking policy responds also to current output or contains sufficiently strong interest rate smoothing since this prevents the self fulfilling expectations we also show that when e stability is adopted as the selection criterion from multiple equilibria even the forward looking policy generates a locally unique non explosive e stable fundamental rational expectations equilibrium as long as the policy response to expected future inflation is sufficiently strong

a macro micro analysis of the effects of electricity reform in senegal on poverty and distribution abstract this paper uses a computable general equilibrium cge macro micro model to explore the distributional effects of price reform in the electricity sector of senegal in the first part of the paper we analyse the distribution of electricity in senegal by income quintiles between 1995 and 2001 the analysis demonstrates that poor and rural households are not the main beneficiaries of the expanded network the results of the cge model show that direct price effects are weaker than general equilibrium effects on poverty and inequality moreover compensatory policies tested can help attenuate some adverse effects

the design of monetary and fiscal policy a global perspective abstract we study the emergence of multiple equilibria in models with capital and bonds under various monetary and fiscal policies we show that the presence of capital is indeed another independent source of local and global multiplicities even under active policies that yield local determinacy we also show how a very similar mechanism generates multiplicities in models with bonds and distortionary taxation we then explore the design of monetary policies that avoid multiple equilibria we show that interest rate policies that respond to the output gap while potentially a source of significant inefficiencies may be effective in preventing multiple equilibria and costly oscillatory equilibrium dynamics

measuring corruption in infrastructure evidence from transition and developing countries abstract this paper examines what we can say about the extent and impact of corruption in infrastructure using existing evidence there is evidence that most perceptions measures appear to be very weak proxies for the actual extent of corruption in the infrastructure sector largely but inaccurately measuring petty rather than grand corruption survey evidence is more reliable but limited as a tool for differentiating countries in terms of access to infrastructure finance or appropriate policy models the paper suggests that a focus on bribe payments as the indicator of the costs of corruption in infrastructure may be misplaced

inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule the purpose of the paper is to survey and discuss in ation targeting in the context of monetary policy rules the paper provides a general conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of in ation targeting compares in ation targeting to other monetary policy rules and draws some conclusions for the monetary policy of the european system of central banks jel classi cation e42 e52

the role of policy in energy transitions lessons from the energy liberalisation era the aim of this paper is to discuss the period of energy privatisation and liberalisation which began in the 1980s within its wider historical context the key issues are what has been learned from this recent period and how significant is it in the light of an energy transition to low carbon energy system by 2050 energy liberalisation has led to positive and globally widespread but modest efficiency gains but a lack of clearly visible direct benefits to households in many countries it has significantly improved the governance of monopoly utilities via independent regulators the prospects for competition and innovation and the quality of policy instruments for environmental emissions control through the emergence of trading mechanisms we conclude that it is not liberalisation per se that will determine the movement towards a low carbon energy transition but the willingness of societies to bear the cost which will be significant no matter what the extent of liberalisation

inflation forecast targeting implementing and monitoring inflation targets abstract inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting the central bank s inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy the weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target money growth or exchange rate targeting is generally inferior than inflation targeting and leads to higher inflation variability commitment to target rules may be better than commitment to instrument rules

indeterminacy aggregate demand and the real business cycle abstract we show that under indeterminacy aggregate demand shocks are able to explain not only aspects of actual fluctuations that standard rbc models predict fairly well but also aspects of actual fluctuations that standard rbc models cannot explain such as the hump shaped trend reverting impulse responses to transitory shocks found in us output cogley and nason am econom rev 85 1995 492 the large forecastable movements and comovements of output consumption and hours rotemberg and woodford am econom rev 86 1996 71 and the fact that consumption appears to lead output and investment over the business cycle indeterminacy arises in our model due to capacity utilization and mild increasing returns to scale

getting reforms done in inhospitable institutional environments untying a gordian knot in india s power distribution sector when grand institutional reforms based on idealized models are stalled by the poor institutional environments and difficult politics which often surround large infrastructure systems in developing countries partial reforms whose design and implementation take into account the different interests of the key stakeholders can provide valuable and immediate benefits while moving these systems from low towards higher level equilibria strategically negotiated experimentally partial and purposefully hybrid these reforms are based on careful stakeholder analysis and strategic coalition building that avoid rigid positions based on idealized models our findings are based on a study of power sector reforms in india where we performed a micro level and in depth analysis of a partial and innovative experiment which has allowed private sector participation in electricity distribution within a hostile institutional environment

capacity utilization under increasing returns to scale abstract this paper overcomes an important objection against the empirical relevance of the benhabib farmer model as a potential account of actual business cycle fluctuations this is attributable to an elasticity effect and a returns to scale effect of capacity utilization these effects are closely related to the empirical puzzles that capital appears to play an insignificant role in explaining cyclical movements in output and that the estimated labor elasticity appears to be larger than labor s share due to these effects multiple equilibria and persistent fluctuations can easily occur in a growth model for externalities mild enough so that the aggregate labor demand curve is downward sloping analyses show that the propagation mechanism generated by capacity utilization under mild increasing returns is capable of explaining the periodic patterns of u s business cycles documented by watson journal of economic literature classification numbers e32 e22 c52

the measurement and impact of corruption victimization survey evidence from latin america summary does democracy suffer when corruption is high unfortunately most studies of corruption have been descriptive making it difficult to develop a well supported answer to this question there are of course quantitative corruption measures but the most popularly used of them are measures of corruption perception aggregated at the national level rather than corruption experience at the individual level it is difficult to draw firm conclusions about the impact of corruption from such data this paper proposes a corruption victimization measure based on a survey research approach to the measurement problem and discusses in a non technical fashion its strengths and limitations the paper then presents data from studies conducted by the vanderbilt university latin american public opinion project lapop and demonstrates the impact of corruption victimization on belief in the legitimacy of the political system a critical element in democratic political stability

monetary policy rules based on real time data this paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules using taylor s rule as an example i demonstrate that real time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with ex post revised data further estimated policy reaction functions based on ex post revised data provide misleading descriptions of historical policy and obscure the behavior suggested by information available to the federal reserve in real time these results indicate that reliance on the information actually available to policy makers in real time is essential for the analysis of monetary policy rules

indeterminacy and increasing returns abstract we investigate properties of the one sector growth model with increasing returns under two organizational structures capable of reconciling the existence of aggregate increasing returns with competitive behavior by firms the first involves input externalities the second involves monopolistic competition we show for parameters in close accord with recent literature on real business cycles that the model displays an indeterminate steady state that can be exploited to generate a model of business fluctuations driven by self fulfilling beliefs in our first class of models growth is generated by exogenous increases in factor productivity in the second class the marginal product of capital is large enough for endogenous growth journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 o40

business cycles and the relationship between concentration and price cost margins using a newly constructed panel data base we examine changes in price cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981 a key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period we provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations this finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition the results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading

prices output and hours an empirical analysis based on a sticky price model abstract i show that a simple sticky price model based on rotemberg 1982 is consistent with a variety of facts concerning the correlation of prices hours and output it is consistent with the negative correlation between forecastable movements in prices and output as well as the smaller negative correlation between forecastable movements in prices and hours it is also consistent with the positive correlations of unexpected movements in prices output and hours these patterns are harder to reconcile with the flexible price version of the model in particular they require that money respond differently to forecastable and to unforecastable real shocks

legal environment finance channels and investment the east african example abstract how do legal environments and finance affect investments by firms in the east african community property rights external and internal finance channels key conduits of the transmission mechanism from legal environment to investment individually and interactively affect firms decision to invest firms that perceive secure property rights are more likely to invest in fixed capital the interactions suggest governments in this community would do well to pursue investment growth policies that slant heavily towards financial markets deepening while not ignoring enhancement of legal infrastructures overall property rights external finance internal finance firm size and an export orientation are important determinants of the investment decision

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

sticky prices in the euro area a summary of new micro evidence this paper summarises the vast evidence on micro price setting recently obtained for euro area countries we consider studies with micro data on consumer and producer prices as well as survey information the main findings are 1 prices in the euro area are sticky and stickier than in the us 2 downward price rigidity is only slightly more marked than upward price rigidity 3 heterogeneity and asymmetries are observed in price setting and 4 the relevance of theories that explain price stickiness such as implicit or explicit contracts marginal costs and coordination failure is confirmed whereas menu costs pricing thresholds and costly information explanations are judged much less relevant by firms jel c25 d40 e31

eight questions about corruption this paper will discuss eight frequently asked questions about public corruption 1 what is corruption 2 which countries are the most corrupt 3 what are the common characteristics of countries with high corruption 4 what is the magnitude of corruption 5 do higher wages for bureaucrats reduce corruption 6 can competition reduce corruption 7 why have there been so few recent successful attempts to fight corruption 8 does corruption adversely affect growth

structural models of family labor supply a discrete choice approach a static neoclassical structural model is presented explaining labor supply of both spouses in two adult households in the netherlands family preferences are described with a direct translog utility function with the husbands leisure the wifes leisure and family income as its arguments we assume that the choice set of each family is finite account is taken of the dutch tax and benefits system we allow for hours restrictions and random preferences and account for unobserved wages of nonworkers the models are estimated using smooth simulated maximum likelihood results based upon dutch cross section data from 1987 are illustrated by confidence intervals for elasticities and by several policy simulations excerpt

the alaskan labor market during the pipeline era built between 1974 and 1977 the trans alaska pipeline was the largest privately financed construction project in world history the alaskan labor market during the pipeline era provides an ideal opportunity to view labor market responses to a large anticipated and temporary shock to labor demand the paper presents several theoretical models of market responses to temporary demand shocks and then assesses the ability of each model to explain the alaskan data among the findings are that alaskan wages were very flexible labor supply was quite elastic on both the intensive hours per worker and extensive number of workers margins and even a major short run demand shock need not have a long run impact

water for life the impact of the privatization of water services on child mortality while most countries are committed to increasing access to safe water and thereby reducing child mortality there is little consensus on how to actually improve water services one important proposal under discussion is whether to privatize water provision in the 1990s argentina embarked on one of the largest privatization campaigns in the world including the privatization of local water companies covering approximately 30 percent of the country s municipalities using the variation in ownership of water provision across time and space generated by the privatization process we find that child mortality fell 8 percent in the areas that privatized their water services and that the effect was largest 26 percent in the poorest areas we check the robustness of these estimates using cause specific mortality while privatization is associated with significant reductions in deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases it is uncorrelated with deaths from causes unrelated to water conditions

intertemporal substitution in labor supply evidence from micro data the sensitivity of the supply of labor to intertemporal variation in the wage is an important issue in macroeconomics the analysis of social security and pensions and the study of life cycle patterns of work this paper explores two approaches to the measurement of intertemporal substitution that have appeared in the literature the first approach is to use consumption to control for wealth and unobserved expectations about future wages in the labor supply equation the second approach is to estimate a first difference equation for hours in which labor supply from the previous period serves as a control for wealth and wage expectations the results indicate that intertemporal substitution elasticity for married men is positive but small

inflation targeting a new framework for monetary policy he world s central bankers and their staffs meet regularly in venues from basle to washington to share ideas and discuss common problems perhaps these frequent meetings help explain why changes in the tactics and strategy of monetary policymaking such as the adoption of money growth targets in the 1970s the intensification of efforts to reduce inflation in the 1980s and the recent push for increased institutional independence for central banks tend to occur in many countries more or less simultaneously whatever their source major changes in the theory and practice of central banking are of great importance for both individual countries and the international economy in this article we discuss a new strategy for monetary policy known as inflation targeting which has sparked much interest and debate among central bankers and monetary economists in recent years this approach is characterized as the name suggests by the announcement of official target ranges for the inflation rate at one or more horizons and by explicit acknowledgment that low and stable inflation is the overriding goal of monetary policy other important features of inflation targeting include increased communication with the public about the plans and objectives of the monetary policymakers and in many cases increased accountability of the central bank

building support for taxation in developing countries experimental evidence from mexico abstract drawing on insights from the literature on institutional design how rules shape behavior to achieve desired outcomes this article examines how certain design features of taxes such as allowing for civil society oversight earmark mechanisms that direct tax revenue for a specific purpose and sunset provisions that make the duration of taxes finite affect political support for tax reforms it also evaluates how three important aspects of the fiscal exchange trust in government perceptions of the public good and level of income shape the effect of these design features based on an original survey experiment focusing on the provision of public safety in mexico i find that these design features increase political support for taxation especially among those with low trust in government and low income these findings have important implications not just for mexico but also a number of other countries across latin america that have both low levels of extraction and increased public spending imperatives

state dependent or time dependent pricing does it matter for recent u s inflation in the 1988 2004 micro data collected by the u s bureau of labor statistics for the cpi price changes are frequent every 4 7 months depending on the treatment of sale prices and large in absolute value on the order of 10 the size and timing of price changes varies considerably for a given item but the size and probability of a price change are unrelated to the time since the last price change movements in aggregate inflation reflect movements in the size of price changes rather than the fraction of items changing price due to offsetting movements in the fraction of price increases and decreases neither leading time dependent models taylor or calvo nor 1 st generation state dependent models match all of these facts some 2 nd generation state dependent models however appear broadly consistent with the empirical patterns

privatisation discontent and utility reform in latin america abstract privatisation faces strong and increasingly popular opposition in latin america this paper uses individual data on social attitudes socioeconomic status and demographic information from three waves of latinobarometro surveys 1998 2000 and 2002 in 17 countries to study the role of privatisation of utilities and its distributional impact we find that disagreement with privatisation is most likely when the respondent is on a low to middle income and when it involves a high proportion of public services such as water and electricity this complements recent empirical research that points to distributional concerns in the implementation of privatisation in latin america particularly because of inadequate regulation of utilities

the seasonal cycle and the business cycle almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data this paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but are small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables the timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarters a large decrease in the first quarter and a mild decrease in the third quarter the paper demonstrates that with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle that is we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies output movements across broadly defined sectors move together the timing of production and the

capital and macroeconomic instability in a discrete time model with forward looking interest rate rules abstract we establish the necessary and sufficient conditions for local real determinacy in a discrete time production economy with monopolistic competition and a quadratic price adjustment cost under forward looking policy rules for the case where capital is in exogenously fixed supply and the case with endogenous capital accumulation using these conditions we show that i indeterminacy is more likely to occur with a greater share of payment to capital in value added production cost ii indeterminacy can be more or less likely to occur with constant capital than with variable capital iii indeterminacy is more likely to occur when prices are modelled as jump variables than as predetermined variables iv indeterminacy is less likely to occur with a greater degree of steady state monopolistic distortions and v indeterminacy is less likely to occur with a greater degree of price stickiness or with a higher steady state inflation rate in contrast to some existing research our analysis indicates that capital tends to lead to macroeconomic instability by affecting firms pricing behavior in product markets rather than households arbitrage activity in asset markets even under forward looking policy rules

corruption in public service delivery experience from south asia s water and sanitation sector summary this paper presents empirical information regarding the types and magnitude of corrupt behaviors documented in water supply and sanitation service provision in several south asian localities it also examines the strengths and weaknesses of current strategies to reduce corruption among several public water and sanitation bureaucracies in south asia drawing on interviews and focus group discussions with more than 1 400 staff customers and key informants where corruption has been reduced two concomitant drivers are observed a shift in the accountability networks of service providers and a change in the work environment that increases the moral cost of misconduct 2003 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

gender and corruption in business abstractare firms with female owners or managers less corrupt than other firms we test this question using firm level data on corruption ownership and management we find that women in positions of influence are associated with less corruption female owners are associated with a lower incidence of bribery and report smaller levels of bribery moreover corruption is seen as less of an obstacle in companies where women are represented in top management by providing evidence that women are associated with lower levels of corruption in business our research contributes to the literature on development gender equality and corruption

european inflation dynamics abstract we provide evidence on the fit of the new phillips curve npc for the euro area over the period 1970 1998 and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of european inflation dynamics with those observed in the u s we also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs as well as that of its two main components namely labor productivity and real wages some of the findings can be summarized as follows a the npc fits euro area data very well possibly better than u s data b the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial but in line with survey evidence and u s estimates c inflation dynamics in the euro area appear to have a stronger forward looking component i e less inertia than in the u s d labor market frictions as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and consequently inflation in europe

empirical evidence on satisfaction with privatization in latin america since the 1980s privatization of formerly state owned firms has been extensively implemented by governments across latin america despite the fact that most evaluations of the process fail to find significant adverse efficiency and welfare effects there has been a strong surge in public discontent with such policy in the region this paper performs a systematic empirical analysis of the determinants of such dissatisfaction using survey data from latinobarometro covering 17 countries over the period 1998 2008 complemented by country level data on macroeconomic political and institutional aspects as well as data on privatization dissatisfaction appears to respond to absolute and relative welfare effects and the authors find a robust u shaped effect in term of education and income levels with individuals in the middle of such distributions being more critical with the outcome of privatizations

job search requirements for unemployed at the end of working life effects on unemployment dynamics and self employment probabilities this paper investigates the extent to which job search requirements in unemployment insurance u i increase the probability of self employment as a retirement route for causal identification we apply a difference in differences approach using a dutch 2004 policy reform that introduced job search requirements in u i for persons aged 57 5 and older unemployment dynamics and self employment probabilities are studied using a dynamic multinomial logit model with unobserved heterogeneity the results suggest that job search requirements stimulated people to exit unemployment and discouraged older workers to enter unemployment the probability of self employment as an exit route to retirement increased relative to u i but not relative to paid employment

inflation targeting regimes abstract this paper divides the monetary frameworks of countries that use an inflation target to define their monetary framework into three different regimes i full fledged inflation targeting ii implicit price stability anchor and iii inflation targeting lite the regimes are differentiated by the clarity and credibility of the commitment to the inflation target the revealed preference for different regimes is related empirically to cross country structural differences in economic and financial development policy implications of moving from one regime to another are drawn especially for emerging market countries aiming at full fledged inflation targeting

using micro surveys to measure and explain corruption summary this paper discusses survey techniques aimed at a better measurement of corruption at the micro level and argues that with appropriate survey methods and interview techniques it is possible to collect quantitative micro level data on corruption public expenditure tracking surveys service provider surveys and enterprise surveys are highlighted with several applications these surveys permit measurement of corruption at the level of individual agents such as schools health clinics or firms they also permit the study of mechanisms responsible for corruption including capture of public funds and bribery 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

investment and interest rate policy a discrete time analysis this paper analyzes the restrictions necessary to ensure that the interest rate policy rule used by the central bank does not introduce local real indeterminacy into the economy it conducts the analysis in a calvo style sticky price model a key innovation is to add investment spending to the analysis in this environment local real indeterminacy is much more likely in particular all forward looking interest rate rules are subject to real indeterminacy

is forward looking inflation targeting destabilizing the role of policy s response to current output under endogenous investment we show that with endogenous investment virtually all monetary policy rules that set a nominal interest rate in response solely to expected future inflation induce real indeterminacy in models with i staggered prices ii staggered prices and staggered wages and iii staggered prices staggered wages and firm specific capital in i policy s response to current output can help significantly in ensuring determinacy with an infinite labor supply elasticity but little with empirically plausible labor supply elasticity in ii responding to output always helps a great deal though under low price stickiness and without capital adjustment cost it may call for a moderate response to output in order to ensure determinacy for a wide range of response to inflation in iii even a tiny response to output can always render equilibrium determinate for a wide range of response to inflation

real business cycles and the animal spirits hypothesis abstract we calibrate a quantitative equilibrium macroeconomic model with an aggregate technology that is subject to increasing returns and show that this model may display fluctuations at business cycle frequencies even when there are no shocks to the fundamentals of the economy these fluctuations are due to the self fulfilling beliefs of investors which we call animal spirits we compare the impulse response functions predicted by our model and by two other more standard models with a four variable vector autoregression on u s data our animal spirits economy is the most successful of the three at matching broad features of the dynamic responses in the data journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 e32

how sensitive are retirement decisions to financial incentives a stated preference analysis we study the effects of financial incentives on retirement decisions using stated preference data dutch survey respondents were given hypothetical retirement scenarios describing age s of partial and full retirement and replacement rate s a stylized model is estimated in which utility is the discounted sum of within period utilities that depend on employment status and income parameters of the utility function vary with observed and unobserved characteristics simulations show that the income and substitution effects of pensions as a function of the retirement age are substantial and larger than according to studies using data on actual retirement decisions in the netherlands

firm specific capital nominal rigidities and the taylor principle in the presence of firm specific capital the taylor principle can generate multiple equilibria sveen and weinke new perspectives on capital sticky prices and the taylor principle j econ theory 123 2005 21 39 obtain that result in the context of a calvo style sticky price model one potential criticism is that the price stickiness which is needed for our theoretical result to be relevant from a practical point of view is somewhat to the high part of available empirical estimates in the present paper we show that if nominal wages are not fully flexible which is an uncontroversial empirical fact then the taylor principle fails already for some minor degree of price stickiness we use our model to explain the consequences of both nominal rigidities for the desirability of alternative interest rate rules

distributional coalitions and the politics of economic reform in latin america for much of the discipline of economics a closed economy is seen as the result of efforts of distributional coalitions and rent seekers to maintain sector specific protections accordingly economic liberalization is explained by the policy consistency of uncompromising reform elites students of the politics of economic adjustment in the developing world in turn have argued that reform programs concentrate costs in the present and disperse benefits in the future hence losers are prepared to engage in collective action whereas prospective winners facing uncertainty about payoffs remain disorganized they thus posit the cohesiveness and insularity of policymakers as the main variable for explaining successful reform both economists and political scientists therefore adopt a collective action approach that overlooks how groups organize in support of liberalization in the recent latin american experience however these reforms have preserved market reserves for firms that provided vital political support to and often colluded with policymaking elites this setting has thus reproduced incentives for rent seeking behavior even in the presence of comprehensive liberalization this evidence supports two interrelated theoretical claims first distributional coalitions may proliferate when the state withdraws from the economy not only when it intervenes second interest based variables retain explanatory power in political economy which state autonomy arguments disregard irrespective of whether the economy is closed or open which neoclassical perspectives overlook to highlight the centrality of interest groups favoring marketization therefore the article suggests modifications to the dominant theories of collective action and the literature on the politics of economic adjustment

homework in labor economics household production and intertemporal substitution abstract we argue that estimates of intertemporal substitution elasticities obtained from standard life cycle models are subject to a downward bias because they neglect changes in work done at home over the life cycle we extend the standard life cycle model to include home production and estimate it using data from three time use surveys we find that the downward bias is large

the performance of forecast based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty we investigate the performance of forecast based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics we identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty such rules respond to the one year ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia in contrast rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy in light of these results we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences

retirement behaviour of dutch elderly households we specify and estimate retirement models for singles and married couples and estimate these on data from the dutch socio economic panel we perform some simulations and find strong effects of retirement options in determining the retirement behaviour within different household types model estimates are used to simulate the effect of relevant retirement policies across subgroups we find that the disadvantageous treatment of the old age pension in the netherlands for married households with two earners has unintended perverse effects on the labour market behaviour of couples copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd