understanding developing country stances on post 2012 climate change negotiations comparative analysis of brazil china india mexico and south africa abstract an essential issue in future climate negotiations is how to bring developing countries on board this paper proposes and applies the two level interest based model to analyze the factors that affect the likely stances of the plus five countries brazil china india mexico and south africa on international climate negotiations this study finds mitigation capability to be a crucial factor which consists of at least such sub factors as per capita income energy endowment and economic structure while ecological vulnerability does not seem to play an important role which includes reductions in agricultural outputs sea level rise climate related natural disasters and others the paper proposes six options in an ascending order of stringency that the plus five are likely to adopt the paper suggests that the basic four the plus five excluding mexico particularly china and india are less likely to adopt a voluntary commitment to an emissions cap on the national economy in the near future than mexico which has the highest mitigation capability among all five the basic four are likely to adopt more stringent climate polices with increasing mitigation capabilities suggesting the importance of effective international financial and technology transfer mechanisms and further tighten emission reduction targets from developed countries

the great appreciation the great depreciation and the purchasing power parity hypothesis abstract although there has been much recent work on purchasing power parity ppp neither univariate nor panel methods have produced strong rejections of unit roots in us dollar real exchange rates for industrialized countries during the post 1973 period we investigate the hypothesis that these non rejections can be explained by one episode the large appreciation and depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s by developing unit root tests which account for this event and maintain long run ppp using panel methods we can strongly reject the unit root null for those countries that adhere to the typical pattern of the dollar s rise and fall

commodity currencies and causality some high frequency evidence abstract i investigate the link between economic fundamentals and exchange rate adjustment to commodity price fluctuations i overcome the traditional issue of simultaneity by exploiting the september 14 2019 drone attack on two saudi arabian refineries as a natural experiment this unanticipated event caused the largest 1 day global crude oil price shock in over a decade using high frequency exchange rate data for 30 countries i link the cross section of exchange rate movements around the event to country specific fundamentals and currency risk factors crude export and import intensities were associated with appreciation depreciation additionally countries with higher policy interest rates and weaker financial positions experienced greater currency depreciation while safe haven currencies appreciated consistent with risk off sentiment triggering carry trades to unwind estimated pre event crude oil and vix betas can also explain the cross section of exchange rate adjustment and these currency risk factors are tightly associated with oil related and financial fundamentals respectively

gender differences in training capital and wages this paper constructs an equilibrium job matching model where workers differ in their attachment to the labor force the model predicts that workers with weaker attachment to the labor market will receive lower starting wages and lower post training wages and will be placed in jobs that offer less training and use less capital the implications of the model for gender differences in pay and job assignment are tested with the eopp data set ourfindings suggest that while training intensity during the first three months of employment is similar in positions filled by males and females females are employed in positions that have a shorter duration of on the job training and that use less capital these differences in on the job training and capital in positions filled by men and women as well as a lower market value for women s prior labor market experience account for a substantial part of the gap in wages between males and females

is there an energy efficiency gap many analysts have argued that energy efficiency investments offer an enormous win win opportunity to both reduce negative externalities and save money this overview paper presents a simple model of investment in energy using capital stock with two types of market failures first uninternalized externalities from energy consumption and second forces such as imperfect information that cause consumers and firms not to exploit privately profitable energy efficiency investments the model clarifies that only if the second type of market failure cannot be addressed directly through mechanisms such as information provision energy efficiency subsidies and standards may be merited this chapter therefore reviews the empirical work on the magnitude of profitable unexploited energy efficiency investments a literature which frequently does not meet modern standards for credibly estimating the net present value of energy cost savings and often leaves other benefits and costs unmeasured these problems notwithstanding recent empirical work in a variety of contexts implies that on average the magnitude of profitable unexploited investment opportunities is much smaller than engineering accounting studies suggest finally there is tremendous opportunity and need for policy relevant research that utilizes randomized controlled trials and quasi experimental techniques to estimate the returns to energy efficiency investments and the welfare effects of energy efficiency programs

health and work in the family evidence from spouses cancer diagnoses abstract using canadian administrative data from multiple sources we provide the first nationally representative estimates for the effect of spouses cancer diagnoses on individuals employment and earnings and on family income our identification strategy exploits unexpected health shocks and combines matching with individual fixed effects in a generalized difference in differences framework to control for observable and unobservable heterogeneity while the effect of spousal health shocks on labor supply is theoretically ambiguous we find strong evidence for a decline in employment and earnings of individuals whose spouses are diagnosed with cancer we interpret this result as individuals reducing their labor supply to provide care to their sick spouses and to enjoy joint leisure family income substantially declines after spouses cancer diagnoses suggesting that the financial consequences of such health shocks are considerable

tests for parameter instability in regressions with i 1 processes this article derives the large sample distributions of lagrange multiplier lm tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models the fully modified estimator of phillips and hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends the test statistics considered include the supf test of quandt as well as the lm tests of nyblom and of nabeya and tanaka it is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes that is if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends the distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent it is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered an unstable intercept so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration the tests are applied to three data se

liquidity and the dynamic pattern of asset price adjustment a global view abstract global liquidity expansion has been very dynamic since 2001 contrary to conventional wisdom high money growth rates have not coincided with a concurrent rise in goods prices at the same time however asset prices have increased sharply significantly outpacing the subdued development in consumer prices we investigate the interactions between money and goods and asset prices at the global level using aggregated data for major oecd countries our var results support the view that different price elasticities on asset and goods markets explain the observed relative price change between asset classes and consumer goods

china s capacities for mitigating climate change summary economic growth and structural change have turned china into the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world the country has no international commitments to reduce its emissions but it has developed domestic policies and climate relevant capacities which do have mitigative effects economic and political reforms have supported capacity development however so far china s climate relevant actions have not been influenced by climate considerations potential emission reductions are mainly a by product of measures embedded in energy and transport policies aimed at cutting energy costs and increasing energy security

carbon pricing revenues could close infrastructure access gaps introducing a price on greenhouse gas emissions would not only contribute to reducing the risk of dangerous anthropogenic climate change but would also generate substantial public revenues some of these revenues could be used to cover investment needs for infrastructure providing access to water sanitation electricity telecommunications and transport in this way emission pricing could promote sustainable socio economic development by safeguarding the stability of natural systems which constitute the material basis of economies while at the same time providing public goods that are essential for human well being for a scenario that is consistent with limiting global warming to below 2 c we find that domestic carbon pricing without redistribution of revenues across countries has substantial potential to close existing access gaps for water sanitation electricity and telecommunication however for the majority of countries carbon pricing revenues would not be sufficient to pave all unpaved roads and for most countries in sub saharan africa they would be insufficient to provide universal access to all types of infrastructure except water if some fraction of the global revenues of carbon pricing is redistributed e g via the green climate fund more ambitious infrastructure access goals could be achieved in developing countries our paper also bears relevance for the design of climate finance mechanisms as it suggests that supporting carbon pricing policies instead of project based finance might not only permit cost efficient emission reductions but also leverage public revenues to promote human development goals

the nexus between oil price and russia s real exchange rate better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis abstract instead of analyzing the causality between two time series unconditional analysis as it is usually done the present study deals with the nexus between oil price and russia s real exchange rate conditioning upon potential control variables at well specified horizons and on a frequency by frequency basis this research accounts also for the possible transient linkages and signal discontinuities a major finding of this paper is deeply suggestive of a sharp causality running from oil price to real exchange rate in lower frequencies this implies that russia should better tackle with turbulence triggered by oil price and continue to reduce its energy dependency via drastic and proactive measures the economic and fiscal initiatives of putin administration may help to cope with sudden shocks to lessen the great oil dependence and to build confidence needed for economic recovery while our research does not say much about the routes through which oil price may affect differently real exchange rate it clearly indicates the presence of short term relationship conditional to gdp government expenditures terms of trade and productivity differential the conditional analysis and signal detection appear as meaningful exercises to find new insights into the focal issue

new directions for stochastic open economy models the paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based on sticky nominal wages explicit solution of the wage setting problem under uncertainty allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare expected output and the expected terms of trade despite the potential interplay between imperfections due to sticky wages and monopoly the optimal monetary policy rule has a closed form solution to motivate our model we show that observed correlations between terms of trade and exchange rates are more consistent with our traditional assumptions about nominal rigidities than with a popular alternative based on local currency pricing 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

output value risk for commodity producers the uncertain benefits of diversification summary commodity price volatility has long been recognized as a main risk for commodity producers welfare and has led to diversification efforts less noticed has been the importance of commodity correlations and their increase after 2006 in the risk faced by producers to assess their impact we perform an empirical analysis of the market value of commodity producers output in a sample of 56 countries producing 26 commodities we find that diversification and correlations strongly explain output value volatility during 1987 2006 producers effectively specialized in a single commodity had an average output value volatility of 27 0 while producers of three or more commodities had a 12 7 volatility in this period average correlation was 8 and diversification was very effective in the 2007 12 period correlations averaged 26 and output volatilities for specialized and diversified commodities were 30 4 and 19 5 respectively thus reducing the benefit of diversification at a time of macroeconomic distress in 2013 16 output volatilities reverted to levels close to those in 1987 2006 as commodities decorrelated again our findings should be relevant to policy makers embarking in diversification efforts and in the analysis of macroeconomic risk of commodity producers

workers compensation and consumption smoothing abstract this paper investigates the consumption smoothing benefits of state workers compensation wc programs these programs are among the largest and most controversial forms of social insurance with the putative purpose of supporting families affected by unexpected income shocks due to workplace injuries and illnesses using health and retirement study hrs data for a sample of workers who have experienced a work related work limiting disability i find that a 10 increase in wc benefit generosity offsets the drop in household consumption upon injury by 3 to 5 moreover my estimates imply that if benefits were very low the drop in consumption upon injury would be in the range of 30 a model adapted from the literature on optimal social insurance yields a formula for the optimal level of wc benefits which depends on empirical estimates of the consumption smoothing parameter my calculations suggest that current wc benefit levels are somewhat higher than optimal

the economic consequences of labor mobility unlike most previous research on the relative changes in earnings of job stayers and job changers this study examines the variance in earnings changes rather than simply average changes men and women rather than only men and the five year period following job change rather than only the first year or two the author finds great variability in earnings changes both within and across race and gender groups notably men gained more from quits and except in the case of low wage workers lost less from layoffs than women also men suffered a much smaller penalty than women for repeated job changes for all groups the percentage difference between earnings before and after leaving a job generally persisted for several years

comparing the climate policy performance of emerging economies summary domestic climate policies and the actual environmental performance differ between emerging economies using a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis qca this paper tests the influence of the domestic green industry the ratio of fossil fuels to financial power the international negotiating position and the environmental civil society in brazil china india indonesia south korea mexico and south africa a bad ratio of domestic fossil fuel production to financial power and a weak environmental civil society are a sufficient condition for weak climate policy performance a weak domestic green industry combined with a weak influence of the negotiations only explains some of the cases

the relationship between oil price shocks and china s macro economy an empirical analysis china postdoctoral science foundation 20090460751 ministry of education of the people s republic of china 09yjc790167 09yja820074 national social science funds 09zd050 08ajy031

trends and cycles in the net barter terms of trade a new approach this study has two objectives first it uses time series techniques including unit root tests to reexamine the classic prebisch singer hypothesis that the relative prices of primary commodities in terms of manufactured goods are characterized by secular deterioration second commodity price movements are decomposed into permanent and cyclical components using the beveridge and nelson 1981 technique the latter information is valuable when assessing the viability of commodity stabilization funds and formulating countercyclical macroeconomic policy responses to commodity booms and busts copyright 1989 by royal economic society

the determinants of full time versus part time reemployment following job displacement this article explores the determinants of full time and part time reemployment following job displacement in canada among those who lose full time jobs women are found to have both longer median joblessness durations and higher probabilities of part time reemployment than men with little of this difference explained by gender differences in worker characteristics unemployment insurance receipt is associated with longer median joblesness durations and among those who find a job within 1 year of displacement an increased probability of part time reemployment for both men and women

commodity price volatility with endogenous natural resources abstract natural resource reserves are exogenous in models of small commodity exporters changes in the stock of reserves play no role in the macroeconomy including in business cycle volatility trade dynamics or exchange rate volatility we consider richer supply dynamics and model exploration and depletion we show that an endogenous supply of reserves is important for capturing the stylised facts associated with commodity price shocks including a commodity currency the crowding out of non commodity activity dutch disease and a volatile business cycle we also consider how exploration and depletion affect the ranking of optimal monetary and taxation policies when natural resource reserves are held fixed monetary policy is an efficient tool for stabilising the effects of commodity price shocks however when exploration and depletion are accounted for using interest rates to stabilise the effects of commodity price changes becomes inefficient using taxes on the resource sector specifically an ad valorem royalty remains efficient

effects of global liquidity on commodity and food prices summary this article investigates the relationship between global liquidity and commodity and food prices applying a global cointegrated vector autoregressive model we use different measures of global liquidity and various indices of commodity and food prices for the period 1980 2011 our results support the hypothesis that there is a positive long run relation between global liquidity and the development of food and commodity prices and that food and commodity prices adjust significantly to this cointegrating relation global liquidity in contrast does not adjust it drives the relationship

terms of trade and real exchange rates the canadian evidence abstract this paper presents empirical evidence linking the canada us real exchange rate with the terms of trade using recently developed econometric methods for nondashstationary data we find that the real exchange rate is cointegrated with terms of trade variables and that causality runs from the terms of trade to the exchange rate we then construct a simple exchange rate equation that satisfies several specification tests and performs better than a random walk in post sample forecasting experiments the results suggest that much of the variation in the real exchange rate is attributable to movements in the terms of trade and that the influence of monetary factors is secondary

on the impact of volatility on the real exchange rate terms of trade nexus revisiting commodity currencies abstract the aim of this paper is to study the relationship between terms of trade and real exchange rates in commodity producing countries on both the short and the long run we investigate potential non linearity in the real exchange rate terms of trade nexus according to the level of volatility in commodity and financial markets to this end we consider a panel of 68 commodity exporters split in sub samples of advanced intermediate and low income countries we first show that there is a long run relationship between real exchange rates and terms of trade taking also into account productivity and net foreign assets then we run panel smooth transition regressions to estimate the adjustment process of the real effective exchange rate to its equilibrium value depending on different proxies of volatility our results show that only advanced oil exporters currencies are sensitive to changes in terms of trade in the short run especially when volatility is high on commodity markets

commodity currencies and the real exchange rate abstract this paper examines whether the real exchange rates of commodity exporting countries and the real prices of their commodity exports move together over time using international monetary fund imf data on the world prices of 44 commodities and national commodity export shares we construct new monthly indices of national commodity export prices for 58 commodity exporting countries over 1980 2002 evidence of a long run relationship between national real exchange rate and real commodity prices is found for about one third of the commodity exporting countries the long run real exchange rate of these commodity currencies is not constant as would be implied by purchasing power parity based models but is time varying being dependent on movements in the real price of commodity exports

what drives oil prices emerging versus developed economies this paper explores the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil using a favar model that allows us to identify and compare demand from dierent groups of countries across the world we nd that demand from emerging economies most notably from asian countries is more than twice as important as demand from developed countries in accounting for the uctuations in the real price of oil and in oil production furthermore we

identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates abstract previous empirical study on the effects of monetary policy shocks in small open economies has generated puzzling dynamic responses in various macroeconomic variables this paper argues that these puzzles derive from an identification of monetary policy that is inappropriate for such economies to remedy this it is proposed that a structural model be estimated to explicitly account for the features of the small open economy such a model is applied to canada with tightly estimated results overall the dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the exchange rate as a transmission mechanism

on the exposure of the bric countries to global economic shocks the financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries while large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis their performance deteriorated in the last years despite the modest recovery in advanced economies the higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the chinese transformation during the crisis the chinese fiscal stimulus prevented a decline in gdp growth not only in that country but also in resource rich economies the chinese shift to consumption driven growth led to a decline in commodity demand and the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets this view is supported by bayesian vars specified for the bric brazil russia india and china countries the results reveal a strong impact of international variables on gdp growth in contrast to the other countries china plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices hence the change in the chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure on countries with abundant natural resources

employers discriminatory behavior and the estimation of wage discrimination this paper considers the linkage of empirical estimates of wage discrimination between two groups introduced by oaxaca 1973 to a theoretical model of employers discriminatory behavior it is shown that conditional on different assumptions about employers discriminatory tastes oaxaca s estimators of wage discrimination can be derived that the approach is more generally useful is demonstrated by deriving an alternative estimator of wage discrimination based on the assumption that within each type of labor e g unskilled skilled the utility function capturing employers discriminatory tastes is homogeneous of degree zero with respect to labor inputs from each of the two groups the estimators are compared empirically in an application to male female wage differentials

boom goes the price giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation we estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates the size and plausibly exogenous timing of such discoveries make them ideal for identifying the effects of an anticipated resource boom on prices we find that a giant discovery with the value of a country s gdp increases the real exchange rate by 14 within 10 years following the discovery the appreciation is nearly exclusively driven by an appreciation of the prices of non tradable goods we show that these empirical results are qualitatively and quantitatively in line with a calibrated model with forward looking behaviour and dutch disease dynamics

commodity prices interest rates and the dollar this paper sheds light on recent fluctuations in commodity prices we investigate whether a decline in real interest rates and the us dollar contributes to higher commodity prices and whether commodity prices display overshooting behavior in response to changes in real interest rates we analyze the behavior of real prices of crude oil food metals and industrial raw materials the analysis is based on structural var models estimated on quarterly data over the period 1990q1 2007q4 our results suggest that commodity prices increase significantly in response to reductions in real interest rates moreover oil prices and prices of industrial raw materials tend to display overshooting behavior in response to such interest rate changes the evidence also suggests that a weaker dollar leads to higher commodity prices shocks to interest rates and the dollar are found to account for substantial shares of fluctuations in commodity prices

framing energy efficiency and renewable energy policies an international comparison between mexico and china abstract this essay compares national strategies on mitigation of ghg emissions for mexico and china this state centered analysis stresses the importance of the interaction between international commitments the disposition of internal interest of economy wide actors and the legacies of policy making and institutions particularly in relation to economic development and central local government relations this research does not attempt to classify institutions according to their effectives to foster climate change policies but rather explores specific circumstances for climate change policy making on developing countries contrary to international proposal to find a generic optimal policy choice the research explored the relevance of certain political and economic institutions that can be present in other national cases it shows that the legacies on liberalization and state retreat undermine the state ability to effectively engage with the economic actors on decisions and management likewise regular engagement with them undermines the state affinity towards pursuing economic efficient solutions the relevance of adequate system of incentives for local government to engage in an agenda that is by nature adopted by the central government

dutch disease and the mitigation effect of migration evidence from canadian provinces this article evaluates whether immigration can mitigate the dutch disease effects associated with booms in natural resource sectors we derive predicted changes in the size of the non tradable sector from a small general equilibrium model a la obstfeld rogoff using data for canadian provinces we find evidence that aggregate immigration mitigates the increase in the size of the non tradable sector in booming regions the mitigation effect is due mostly to interprovincial migration and temporary foreign workers there is no evidence of such an effect for permanent international immigration interprovincial migration also results in a spreading effect of dutch disease from booming to non booming provinces

real exchange rate volatility terms of trade shocks and financial integration in primary commodity exporting economies using a panel of 53 primary commodity exporting countries we show that greater international financial integration reduces the impact of terms of trade shocks on real exchange rate volatility this reduction is larger when we define financial integration as foreign direct investment

market power inflation targeting and commodity currencies abstract the commodity currency literature highlights the robust exchange rate response to fluctuations in global commodity prices that occurs for major commodity exporters the magnitude of the response however varies widely across countries and over time horizons this paper examines the real exchange rates of 51 commodity exporters over the period from 1980 to 2010 and finds that in the long run a higher degree of market power in the world commodity trade can reduce the exchange rate response while in the short run an inflation targeting regime can amplify it these differential impacts across countries and horizons are of particular relevance for monetary policy making and for trade strategy in commodity abundant economies

income losses of women and men injured at work women and men injured at work in wisconsin during 1989 and 1990 have similar levels of lost earnings in the quarter of injury however in the three and one half years after the post injury quarter women lose an average of 9 2 percent of earnings while men lose only 6 5 percent even after accounting for covariates with a variant of the oaxaca blinderneumark decomposition the disparity in long term losses remains differences in injury related nonemployment account for about half the covariate adjusted gap over the four year post injury period changes in hours worked may explain all or part of the remaining gap gender differ

primary commodity prices manufactured goods prices and the terms of trade of developing countries what the long run shows the authors revisit in this article the empirical foundation of the alleged secular decline in the prices of primary commodities relative to those of manufactures they use a newly constructed index of commodity prices and two modified indexes of manufactured good prices and find that from 1900 to 1986 the relative prices of all primary commodities fell on trend by 0 5 percent a year and those of nonfuel primary commodities by 0 6 percent a year they thus confirm the sign but not the magnitude of the trend implicit in the work of prebisch but even the more limited secular decline shown by their relative price indexes may be magnified by an incomplete account of quality improvements in manufactures they then show that the evolution of terms of trade of nonfuel primary commodities is not the same as that of the net barter terms of trade of non oil exporting developing countries finally they find that despite the decline that has probably occurred during the current century in the terms of trade of nonfuel primary commodities the purchasing power of total exports of these products has increased considerably similarly the fall that may have occurred after world war ii in the net barter terms of trade of developing countries seems to have been more than compensated for by the steady improvement in their income terms of trade

financial liberalization structural change and real exchange rate appreciations abstract the last twenty years have witnessed periods of sustained appreciations of the real exchange rate in emerging economies the case of mexico between 1988 and 2002 is representative of several episodes in latin america and central and eastern europe in which countries opening to capital flows experienced large appreciations accompanied by a significant reallocation of workers towards the non tradable sector we account for these facts using a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with frictions to labor reallocation and two driving forces i a decline in the cost of borrowing in foreign markets and ii differential productivity growth across sectors these two mechanisms account together for 60 of the decline in the domestic relative price of tradables in mexico and for a large fraction of the observed reallocation of labor across sectors the decline in the interest rate faced by mexico in international markets is quantitatively the most important channel our results are robust to the inclusion of terms of trade into the model

performance pay and workplace injury panel evidence using panel survey data we show cross sectional evidence of an elevated risk of workplace injury for those paid piece rates and bonuses while consistent with adam smith s behavioural conjecture this could simply reflect sorting across workers or firms in response we successively control for a risk proxy for worker fixed effects and for worker with employer match fixed effects no previous examination has controlled for such fixed effects or examined us survey data the estimates indicate that injury risk increases substantially when blue collar manual workers become paid by piece rates and bonuses

volatility risk premia and future commodity returns abstract this paper extends the empirical literature on volatility risk premium vrp and future returns by analyzing the predictive ability of commodity currency vrp and commodity vrp the empirical evidence throughout this paper provides support for a positive relationship of commodity currencies vrp and future commodity returns but only for the period after the 2008 global financial crisis this predictability survives the inclusion of control variables like equity vrp and past currency returns furthermore gold vrp also has the ability to predict future commodity returns however this predictability is restricted to precious metals when control variables are considered

does euro or dollar pegging impact the real exchange rate the case of oil and commodity currencies the aim of this paper is to investigate the equilibrium exchange rates for commodity and oil currencies as well as the discrepancies of their observed exchange rates to these equilibriums to this end first we estimate a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals including the commodity terms of trade the estimation relies on panel cointegration techniques and covers annual data from 1980 to 2007 our results show that real exchange rates co move with commodity prices in the long run and respond to oil price somewhat less than to commodity prices second we assess the degree of misalignment of these currencies as the gap between their observed exchange rate and the estimated equilibrium exchange rate we show that these misalignments are not significantly related to the exchange rate regimes adopted by the countries either pegged or floating however for pegged currencies the size of misalignments significantly depends on the anchor currency either the euro or the dollar a comparison of misalignments of pegged commodity and oil currencies across different periods confirms these results during periods of dollar euro overvaluation currencies pegged to the dollar euro tend to be overvalued the reverse being true when the dollar euro is undervalued consequently pegged currencies are often driven away from their equilibria by wild fluctuations in the key currencies on which they are anchored

how resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies to the global financial crisis during the crises of the 1990s emerging economies usually lacked the policy tools to deal with external shocks that were available to advanced economies worldwide turbulent episodes found most emerging economies unable to perform countercyclical policies and in many cases their own vulnerabilities and poor institutional frameworks amplified negative external shocks leading to sharper recessions this paper shows that the 2008 2009 global financial crisis represents a structural break in the way emerging economies conduct their policies with more countercyclical policies pursued before and during the global crisis moreover breaking with the past emerging economies did not fall more than developed economies during the global financial crisis thus becoming more similar to developed economies the resilience of emerging economies during the 2008 2009 crisis might be partly attributed to a combination of sounder macroeconomic and financial policy frameworks with a shift towards safer domestic and international financial stances

disabled workers and wage losses some evidence from workers with occupational injuries using data from the survey of ontario workers with permanent impairments 1989 90 the authors examine the effects of work related disabilities on the wage losses of disabled male workers one important focus of the analysis is whether the size of disabled workers wage losses was affected by whether they remained at or left the job where the accident occurred the authors also estimate the longer term persistence of wage shocks for disabled workers the estimates suggest that wage losses were larger for disabled workers who did not return to work with their time of accident employer than for those who did return with the latter earning 27 more furthermore wages appear to have been more persistent for workers who did not return to their accident employer than for those who did return

gender differences in displacement cost evidence and implications this paper uses a unique and newly available data set on displaced workers to estimate differences in the wage costs of displacement between women and men while predisplacement wages rise at about the same rate with tenure for women as men in this data set women lose more from displacement than men and the magnitude of this loss increases with tenure overall we interpret our results as not supportive of the specific capital hypothesis that women accumulate less firmspecific human capital than men and we suggest that future attempts to explain our result focus on gender differences in the process of search for a new job

trends in the well being of american women 1970 1995 this paper examines the trends in the well being of american women over the last 25 years a time of significant changes in the relative economic status of women and in the labor market as a whole a broad range of indicators are considered to capture changes in women s well being in the family as well as in the labor market for virtually all age and education groups substantial evidence is obtained of rising gender equality in labor market outcomes notably labor force participation wages and occupational distributions broad evidence is also found of greater gender parity within married couple families as the housework time of husbands increased relative to wives and the relative wages of wives rose compared to their husbands however parallel to the recent evidence of the declining labor market position of lower skilled men there has been a similar deterioration in the economic status of less educated women especially high school dropouts their labor force participation rates and wages have risen at a much slower pace than those of more highly educated women while their incidence of single headship has increased much more rapidly these findings for less educated women serve to underscore the widening gap between more and less skilled americans of both sexes as well as to emphasize its broad dimensions

convergence of carbon dioxide performance across swedish industrial sectors an environmental index approach the overall objective of the paper is to analyze convergence of co2 emission intensity across manufacturing sectors in sweden our approach differs from previous work on carbon convergence in that

real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries a reappraisal commodity price booms as those recorded in the last decade may have a significant economic impact in small commodity exporting developing countries whether the impact on output is positive or negative is still unclear it depends on various factors notably on the impact that commodity prices can have on the real exchange rate of the commodity exporting countries two recent papers show that the real exchange rate appreciates when commodity prices increase our analysis produces new estimates of this relationship by focusing on a large sample of developing countries which are specialized in the export of one leading commodity by using non stationary panel techniques robust to cross sectional dependence we find that the price of the dominant commodity has a significant long run impact on the real exchange rate when the exports of the leading commodity have a share of at least 20 percent in the country s total exports of merchandises our results also show that the larger this share the larger the size of the impact

emerging floaters pass throughs and some new commodity currencies in spite of early skepticism on the merits of floating exchange rate regimes in emerging markets 8 of the 25 largest countries in this group have now had a floating exchange rate regime for more than a decade using parsimonious var specifications covering the period of floating exchange rates this study computes the dynamics of exchange rate pass throughs to consumer price indices we find that pass throughs have typically been moderate even though emerging floaters have seen considerable nominal and real exchange rate volatilities previous studies that set out to estimate exchange rate pass throughs ignored changes in policy regimes making them vulnerable to the lucas critique we find that within the group of emerging floaters estimated pass throughs are higher for countries with greater nominal exchange rate volatilities and that trade more homogeneous goods these findings are consistent with the pass through model of floden and wilander 2006 and earlier findings by campa and goldberg 2005 respectively furthermore we find that the indonesian rupiah the thai baht and possibly the mexican peso are commodity currencies in the sense that their real exchange rates are cointegrated with international commodity prices

dynamic spillover between commodities and commodity currencies during united states q e abstract this paper comprehensively discusses the dynamic relationship between commodities and commodity currencies particularly during the u s quantitative easing qes by integrating the generalized spillover index into a fractionally integrated var fivar model our empirical analyses reach the following conclusions first the static return and volatility spillovers analyses show that the food is the only net receiver among all the commodity price indices second the dynamic total return and volatility spillover accelerated growth in term of the index by roughly between 15 and 25 for four regional groups during the initiation of the qe1 and subsequently remained across the first two rounds of the u s qe nevertheless both the total return and volatility spillover declined in the midst of the qe3 as the u s federal reserve signaled the qe tapering due to the anticipated u s economic recovery third the energy and metals components were the largest net transmitters of return and volatility spillovers during the u s qes a possible interpretation is that demand for energy and metals increase associated with an increase in economic activity that is triggered by the u s qes last almost all the sample commodity currencies acted as net receivers of return and volatility spillovers during the u s qes supporting the pass through of commodities to commodity currencies

booms and slumps in world commodity prices abstract this paper examines the duration and magnitude of cycles in world commodity prices cycles are a dominant feature of commodity prices and dealing with the economic consequences of booms and slumps in prices continues to be one of the most challenging issues facing policymakers in commodity exporting developing countries we find that there is an asymmetry in commodity price cycles as price slumps last longer than price booms how far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they tend to rebound in a subsequent boom in addition for most commodities the probability of an end to a slump boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump boom

commodity currencies and the real exchange rate abstract this paper shows that a change in the terms of trade of a commodity exporting country could cause the relative price of nontraded goods to rise or fall depending on the strength of income and substitution effects