strategic capacity rationing to induce early purchases dynamic pricing offers the potential to increase revenues at the same time it creates an incentive for customers to strategize over the timing of their purchases a firm should ideally account for this behavior when making its pricing and stocking decisions in particular we investigate whether it is optimal for a firm to create rationing risk by deliberately understocking products then the resulting threat of shortages creates an incentive for customers to purchase early at higher prices but when does such a strategy make sense if it is profitable to create shortages what is the optimal amount of rationing risk to create we develop a stylized model to study this problem in our model customers have heterogeneous valuations for the firm s product and face declining prices over two periods customers are assumed to have identical risk preferences and know the price path and fill rate in each period via its capacity choice the firm is able to control the fill rate and hence the rationing risk faced by customers customers behave strategically and weigh the payoff of immediate purchases against the expected payoff of delaying their purchases we analyze the capacity choice that maximizes the firm s profits first we consider a monopoly market and characterize conditions under which rationing is optimal we examine how the optimal amount of rationing is affected by the magnitude of price changes over time and the degree of risk aversion among customers we then analyze an oligopoly version of the model and show that competition reduces the firms ability to profit from rationing indeed there exists a critical number of firms beyond which a rationing equilibrium cannot be supported

competitive equilibria and the core of overlapping generations economies this paper analyzes whether the well known result that for arrow debreu economies all competitive equilibria belong to the core holds true in overlapping generations economies in these economies competitive equilibria are not a subset of the core we define the classical set as the set of all those competitive allocations which cannot be affected by a monetary tax transfer policy then we demonstrate that every competitive equilibrium in the classical set belongs to the core of the economy further we show that for large economies no monetary equilibrium belongs to the core journal of economic liferature classification numbers 021

the value of fast fashion quick response enhanced design and strategic consumer behavior a fast fashion system combines quick response production capabilities with enhanced product design capabilities to both design hot products that capture the latest consumer trends and exploit minimal production lead times to match supply with uncertain demand we develop a model of such a system and compare its performance to three alternative systems quick response only systems enhanced design only systems and traditional systems which lack both enhanced design and quick response capabilities in particular we focus on the impact of each of the four systems on strategic or forward looking consumer purchasing behavior i e the intentional delay in purchasing an item at the full price to obtain it during an end of season clearance we find that enhanced design helps to mitigate strategic behavior by offering consumers a product they value more making them less willing to risk waiting for a clearance sale and possibly experiencing a stockout quick response mitigates strategic behavior through a different mechanism by better matching supply to demand it reduces the chance of a clearance sale most importantly we find that although it is possible for quick response and enhanced design to be either complements or substitutes the complementarity effect tends to dominate hence when both quick response and enhanced design are combined in a fast fashion system the firm typically enjoys a greater incremental increase in profit than the sum of the increases resulting from employing either system in isolation furthermore complementarity is strongest when customers are very strategic we conclude that fast fashion systems can be of significant value particularly when consumers exhibit strategic behavior this paper was accepted by yossi aviv operations management

a note on the core of a monetary economy this note shows that there are monetary equilibria in the model of overlapping generations that are in the core some equilibria have positive stocks of outside money in every generation these equilibria are thus self enforcing and introducing money into an economy need not be tantamount to contriving a new social institution designed to enforce sequential contracts journal of economic literatureclassification numbers e40 e60 c71

early life circumstance and adult mental health we show that psychological well being in adulthood varies with circumstance in early life combining a time series of real producer prices of cocoa with a nationally representative household survey

dynamic pricing in the presence of social learning and strategic consumers when a product of uncertain quality is first introduced consumers may choose to strategically delay their purchasing decisions in anticipation of the product reviews of their peers this paper investigates how the presence of social learning affects the strategic interaction between a dynamic pricing monopolist and a forward looking consumer population within a simple two period model our analysis yields three main insights first we find that the presence of social learning has significant structural implications for optimal pricing policies in the absence of social learning decreasing price plans are always preferred by the firm by contrast in the presence of social learning we find that i if the firm commits to a price path ex ante preannounced pricing an increasing price plan is typically announced whereas ii if the firm adjusts price dynamically responsive pricing prices are initially low and may either rise or decline over time second we establish that under both preannounced an

earnings instability and earnings inequality of males in the united states 1967 1991 although much research has focused on recent increases in annual earnings inequality in the united states the increases could have come from either of two sources the distribution of lifetime earnings could have become more unequal or the receipt of lifetime earnings could have become more unstable based on an analysis of the 1968 92 panel study of income dynamics we find that lifetime earnings inequality increased during the early 1980s and that earnings instability increased during the 1970s we also examine how these trends are related to changes in the distribution of wages and hours and the returns to education

trading horizons and the value of money abstract this paper shows that fiat money can be feasible and essential even if the trading horizon is finite and deterministic the result hinges on two features of our model first individual actions can affect the future availability of productive resources so agents may be willing to sell for money even if on that date they have no reason to accept it this makes monetary trade feasible in all preceding dates second agents are anonymous and direct their search for partners so gift giving arrangements may be prevented because agents can misrepresent their consumption needs this makes money essential in exploiting any gains from specialization and trade

behavioral anomalies in consumer wait or buy decisions and their implications for markdown management the decision to buy an item at a regular price or wait for a possible markdown involves a multidimensional trade off between the value of the item the delay in getting it the likelihood of getting it and the magnitude of the price discount such trade offs are prone to behavioral anomalies by which human decision makers deviate from the discounted expected utility model we build an axiomatic preference model that accounts for three well known anomalies and produces a parsimonious generalization of discounted expected utility we then plug this behavioral model into a stackelberg nash game between a firm that decides the price discount and a continuum of consumers who decide to wait or buy anticipating other consumers decisions and the resultant likelihood of product availability we solve the markdown management problem and contrast the results of our model with those under discounted expected utility we analytically show that accounting for the behavioral anomalies can result in larger markdowns a

alcohol availability prenatal conditions and long term economic outcomes this study examines how a policy that sharply increased alcohol availability during 8 5 months affected the labor productivity of those exposed to it in utero compared to the surrounding cohorts the prenatally exposed children have substantially worse labor market and educational outcomes and lower cognitive and noncognitive ability effects on earnings are found throughout the distribution but are largest below the median males are more affected than females consistent with growing evidence that boys are less resilient to early environmental insults the long term effects seem primarily driven by changes in prenatal health rather than changes in the childhood environment

growth rate heterogeneity and the covariance structure of life cycle earnings using u s panel data on adult males i compare the profile heterogeneity model of earnings dynamics in which the earnings experience profile varies across individuals to a competing model in which earnings has a unit root the latter specification enjoys increasing popularity among researchers my analysis questions this favor suggesting the profile heterogeneity model provides a more consistent representation of the data i also provide new estimates of the variation in earnings growth rates previous evidence is from relatively unrepresentative samples individuals one standard deviation above the mean enjoy a 20 30 earnings advantage in just 10 years

endowments at birth and parents investments in children do parents invest more in higher quality children or do they compensate for lower quality by giving more to children with lower endowments we answer this question in the context of a large scale iodine supplementation programme in tanzania we find that children with higher programme exposure were more likely to receive necessary vaccines and were breastfed for longer siblings of treated children were also more likely to be immunised fertility behavior and investments at the time of birth were unaffected

optimal decisions for sellers considering valuation bias and strategic consumer reactions abstract in the online market for new and innovative products valuation bias commonly occurs between the initial valuation before purchase and the true valuation after purchase as a result of the consumer s lack of knowledge regarding the product valuation bias works in a complex manner on the one hand positive valuation bias increases the seller s demand while on the other hand it can also cause consumers to return their purchases which results in losses for the seller this paper first investigates the effect of the bias on the seller s optimal pricing the optimal price is determined always to increase strictly in the valuation bias if and only if the valuation bias does not exceed the consumer s return cost this result remains true regardless of whether the seller decides on the stocking quantity in addition to the valuation bias we consider strategic consumer reactions to the bias in two selling periods namely the advance period and the spot period our analysis finds that the seller s selling strategies e g pre announcing pricing trends are significantly affected by the relationship between valuation bias and the strategic consumer s estimation of the bias in addition though the optimal selling period is either the advance selling term or the spot selling term the seller does not need to provide for both periods sequentially we also determine that the unannounced pricing trend strategy and the announced non increasing pricing trend strategy are equivalent when the seller faces strategic consumers

short run core equivalence in an overlapping generations model abstract this essay establishes the equality between the set of competitive equilibrium allocations and the set of allocations which belong to the cores of a sequence of short run economies for an overlapping generations model a short run economy is a finite period economy obtained by truncating the original economy so that the truncated economy is irreducible

the costs of low birth weight birth weight has emerged as the leading indicator of infant health and welfare and the central focus of infant health policy this is because low birth weight lbw infants experience severe health and developmental difficulties that can impose enormous costs on society but would the prevention of lbw generate equally sizable cost savings and health improvements estimates of the return to lbwprevention from cross sectional associations may be biased by omitted variables that cannot be influenced by policy such as genetic factors to address this we compare the hospital costs health at birth and infant mortality rates between heavier and lighter infants from all twin pairs born in the united states we also examine the effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy the leading risk factor for lbw in the united states on health among singleton births after controlling for detailed background characteristics both analyses imply substantially smaller effects of lbw than previously thought suggesting two possibilities 1 existing estimates overstate the true costs and consequences of lbw by at least a factor of four and by as much as a factor of 20 or 2 different lbw preventing interventions have different health and cost consequences implying that policy efforts that presume a single return to reducing lbw will necessarily be suboptimal

a second note on the core of the overlapping generations model abstract this note provides an example of an overlapping generations economy with a pareto optimal walrasian equilibrium and an empty core then in the context of the economy examined by balasko and shell 1980 a sufficient condition is provided for a pareto optimal walrasian equilibrium to be contained in the core

reducing the cost of demand uncertainty through accurate response to early sales traditionally fashion products have incurred high losses due to stockouts and inventory obsolence because long lead times coupled with a concentrated selling season force all or at least most production to be committed before demand information is available under a quick response system lead times are shortened sufficiently to allow a greater portion of production to be scheduled in response to initial demand we model and analyze the decisions required under quick response and give a method for estimating the demand probability distributions needed in our model we applied these procedures with a major fashion skiwear firm and found that cost relative to the current informal response system was reduced by enough to increase profits by 60 relative to the cost that would have been incurred if no response were used optimized response reduces cost by enough to roughly quadruple profits

productivity health and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of food in low income countries a model is formulated incorporating linkages among nutrition labor market productivity health heterogeneity and the intrahousehold distribution of food and work activities in a subsistence economy empirical results based on a sample of households from bangladesh indicate that despite considerable intrahousehold disparities in calorie consumption households are averse to inequality furthermore consistent with the model the results also indicate that both the higher level and greater variance in the calories consumed by men relative to women reflect in part the greater participation by men in activities in which productivity is sensitive to health status copyright 1990 by american economic association

biases in standard measures of intergenerational income dependence abstract estimates of the most common mobility measure the intergenerational elasticity can be severely biased if snapshots are used to approximate lifetime income however little is known about biases in other popular dependence measures using long swedish income series we provide such evidence for log linear and rank correlations and rank based transition probabilities attenuation bias is considerably weaker in rank based measures life cycle bias is strongest in the elasticity moderate in log linear correlations and small in rank based measures however there are important exceptions persistence in the tails of the distribution is considerably higher and long distance downward mobility lower than estimates from short run income suggest

fiat exchange in finite economies the state of the art of rendering fiat money valuable is either to impose a boundary condition or to make the boundary condition unimportant through an infinite sequence of markets so as to circumvent backward induction we show fiat exchange may nevertheless arise in finite economies if agents have incomplete information about their relative position in the trade cycle or when the barter and autarky equilibria of the one shot trading round support a monetary equilibrium with repeated trades

economic status and health in childhood the origins of the gradient the well known positive association between health and income in adulthood has antecedents in childhood not only is children s health positively related to household income but the relationship between household income and children s health becomes more pronounced as children age part of the relationship can be explained by the arrival and impact of chronic conditions children from lower income households with chronic conditions have worse health than do those from higher income households the adverse health effects of lower income accumulate over children s lives part of the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status may work through the impact of parents income on children s health

a finite horizon monetary economy abstract conventional wisdom says that there is no demand for money in an economy of finite duration in this article we show that this is not necessarily the case we use a random matching model in which the function of money is to mediate exchange by alleviating the double coincidence of wants problem towards the end economic activity decreases but this does not affect the ability of money to speed up trade

from the cradle to the labor market the effect of birth weight on adult outcomes lower birth weight babies have worse outcomes both short run in terms of one year mortality rates and longer run in terms of educational attainment and earnings however recent research has called into question whether birth weight itself is important or whether it simply reflects other hard to measure characteristics by applying within twin techniques using an unusually rich dataset from norway we examine the effects of birth weight on both short run and long run outcomes for the same cohorts we find that birth weight does matter despite short run twin fixed effects estimates that are much smaller than ols estimates the effects on longer run outcomes such as adult height iq earnings and education are significant and similar in magnitude to ols estimates

revenue management by sequential screening abstract using a mechanism design approach we consider a firm s optimal pricing policy when consumers are heterogeneous and learn their valuations at different times we show that by offering a menu of advance purchase contracts that differ in when and for how much the product can be returned a firm can more easily price discriminate between privately informed consumers in particular we show that screening on when the return option can be exercised increases firm profits relative to screening on the size of the refund alone only if the expected gains from trade are higher for consumers who learn later we show that in some settings mean preserving spread the firm can achieve the complete information profits and analyze the optimal contract in other settings first order stochastic dominance in which the first best allocation is not always feasible

early life health interventions and academic achievement this paper studies the effect of improved early life health care on mortality and long run academic achievement in school we use the idea that medical treatments often follow rules of thumb for assigning care to patients such as the classification of very low birth weight vlbw which assigns infants special care at a specific birth weight cutoff using detailed administrative data on schooling and birth records from chile and norway we establish that children who receive extra medical care at birth have lower mortality rates and higher test scores and grades in school these gains are in the order of 0 15 0 22 standard deviations

do population control policies induce more human capital investment twins birthweight and china s one child policy in this paper we address the issues of whether reductions in fertility increase human capital investments per child and whether twinning can identify the quantity quality q q trade off we show that estimates of the effects of twinning at higher parities on the outcomes of older children in prior studies do not identify family size effects but are confounded by inter child allocation effects because of the endowment deficit and close spacing of twins however examining the effects of twinning by birth order net of the effects stemming from the endowment deficit of twins can provide upper and lower bounds on the trade off between the family size and average child quality our estimates based on data from china indicate that an extra child at parity one or at parity two net of one component of birth endowment effects associated with birth weight significantly decreases the schooling progress the expected college enrolment grades in school and the assessed health of all children in the family despite the evident significant trade off between number of children and child quality in china the findings suggest that the contribution of the one child policy in china to the development of its human capital was modest copyright wiley blackwell

private health investments under competing risks evidence from malaria control in senegal this study exploits the introduction of high subsidies for anti malaria products in senegal in 2009 to investigate if malaria prevents parents to invest in child health building upon the seminal paper of dow et al 1999 we develop a simple model of health investments under competing mortality risks in which people allocate expenses to equalize lifetime across all causes of death we predict that private health investments to fight malaria as well as other diseases should increase in response to anti malaria public interventions to test this prediction we use original panel data from a senegalese household survey combined with geographical information on malaria prevalence our strategy is to compare the evolution of child health expenditures before and after anti malaria interventions between malarious and non malarious regions of senegal we find that health expenditures in malarious regions catch up with non malarious regions at the extensive and intensive margins and both in level and in composition the same result holds for parental health seeking behavior in case of other diseases like diarrhea we provide evidence that these patterns cannot be explained by differential trends in total income or access to healthcare or child morbidity between malarious and non malarious regions our results suggest that behavioral responses to anti malaria campaigns magnify their impact on all cause mortality for children

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

costly transfer institutions and the core in an overlapping generations model we examine an overlapping generations economy with no pre existing intergenerational transfers and study the set of transfer institutions in the core of the economy that is institutions that would be admissible for the first generation to create and would not be rejected by any future generation institution building is assumed to be costly we allow the cost of creating a new institution to vary with the size of the transfer it institutes and show that all institutions in the core must cost as much to build as they transfer in fact the core set is nonempty if and only if the institution that supports the golden rule transfer costs as much to create as it transfers the core set is characterized for various cost functions we conclude that costs associated with the creation of transfer institutions are essential to make intergenerational transfers socially viable but they may induce the choice of institutions making suboptimal transfers

health at birth parental investments and academic outcomes this paper explores the relationship among health at birth academic outcomes and the potential role of parental investments using administrative panel data from chile using detailed data on pare

on money as a medium of exchange we analyze economies in which individuals specialize in consumption and production and meet randomly over time in a way that implies that trade must be bilateral and quid pro quo nash equilibria in trading strategies are characterized certain goods emerge endogenously as media of exchange or commodity money depending both on their intrinsic properties and on extrinsic beliefs there are also equilibria with genuine fiat currency circulating as the general medium of exchange we find that equilibria are not generally pareto optimal and that introducing fiat currency into a commodity money economy may unambiguously improve welfare velocity acceptability and liquidity are discussed

core equivalence in an overlapping generations model abstract in this paper we place the short term core of aliprantis and burkinshaw in the chart of core like sets in overlapping generations models for the limit of replica economis it is shown that the short term core is equivalent to chae s short run core and therefore to the set of competitive equilibrium allocations in the special case where each generation consists of only one type of agents who consume the same consumption vector but that in general the short term core is not equivalent to the set of competitive equilibrium allocations another result of the paper is a sufficient condition for a competitive equilibrium allocation to be in the core journal of economic literature classification numbers d50 d90 c70

the challenge of monetary theory departing from custom i want to address a problem that needs to be solved rather than one that has been solved i do not have much to contribute to its solution but i believe that the problem is important and want to focus attention on it in general terms the problem is to find appropriate conceptual foundations for monetary economics i believe that we do not as yet have a suitable theoretical framework for studying the functioning of a monetary system the main obstacle to the development of such a framework is our habit of thinking in terms of frictionless organized i e walrasian markets the problem is partly a problem of language the central concepts of economics demand supply and price are concepts that presuppose a system of centralized walrasian markets we are used to thinking in terms of these concepts and we tend to apply them rather automatically to the market for money frequently without realizing that the market for money must be a rather non walrasian market if indeed it can be called a market at all more or less all the models of monetary economics that are being used in practice proceed in this way using artifical adaptations of the walrasian centralized markets model to accommodate money without actually giving an account of what the role of money in the economy is the problem is one of pure economic theory however it bears on many important questions of applied economics and economic policy to study the relation between money income and prices we need a framework which gives a satisfactory account of the relation between the monetary system and the price mechanism to study the effects of central bank open market

selling to strategic consumers when product value is uncertain the value of matching supply and demand we address the value of quick response production practices when selling to a forward looking consumer population with uncertain heterogeneous valuations for a product consumers have the option of purchasing the product early before its value has been learned or delaying the purchase decision until a time at which valuation uncertainty has been resolved whereas individual consumer valuations are uncertain ex ante the market size is uncertain to the firm the firm may either commit to a single production run at a low unit cost prior to learning demand or commit to a quick response strategy that allows additional production after learning additional demand information we find that the value of quick response is generally lower with strategic forward looking customers than with nonstrategic myopic customers in this setting indeed it is possible for a quick response strategy to decrease the profit of the firm though whether this occurs depends on various characteristics of the market specifically we identify conditions under which quick response increases profit when prices are increasing when dissatisfied consumers can return the product at a cost to the firm and conditions under which quick response may decrease profit when prices are constant or when consumer returns are not allowed this paper was accepted by martin lariviere operations and supply chain management

endogenous market formation and monetary trade an experiment the theory of money assumes decentralized bilateral exchange and excludes centralized multilateral exchange however endogenizing the exchange process is critical for understanding the conditions that support the use of money we develop a traveling game to study the emergence of decentralized and centralized exchange theoretically and experimentally players located on separate islands can either trade locally or pay a cost to trade elsewhere so decentralized and centralized markets can both emerge in equilibrium the former minimize trade costs through monetary exchange the latter maximizes overall surplus through nonmonetary exchange monetary trade emerges when coordination is problematic whereas centralized trade emerges otherwise this shows that to understand the emergence of money it is important to amend standard theory such that the market structure is endogenized

family background and income during the rise of the welfare state brother correlations in income for swedish men born 1932 1968 we investigate if the association between family background and income in sweden has changed for men born between 1932 and 1968 our main finding is that the share of the variance in long run income that is attributable to family background the so called brother correlation in income has fallen by some 17 from 0 49 for the cohorts of brothers born in the early 1930s to below 0 32 for the cohorts born around 1950 from then on the correlations have inched back up to around 0 37 we report suggestive evidence that the decline is driven by changes in education

strategic waiting for consumer generated quality information dynamic pricing of new experience goods in this paper we study the impact of consumer generated quality information e g consumer reviews on a firm s dynamic pricing strategy in the presence of strategic consumers such information is useful not only to the consumers that have not yet purchased the product but also to the firm the informativeness of the consumer generated quality information depends however on the volume of consumers who share their opinions and thus depends on the initial sales volume hence via its initial price the firm not only influences its revenue but also controls the quality information flow over time the firm may either enhance or dampen the quality information flow via increasing or decreasing initial sales the corresponding pricing strategy to steer the quality information flow is not always intuitive compared to the case without consumer generated quality information the firm may reduce the initial sales and lower the initial price interestingly the firm may get strictly worse off due to the consu

sufficiency of an outside bank and a default penalty to support the value of fiat money experimental evidence we present a model in which an outside bank and a default penalty support the value of fiat money and experimental evidence that the theoretical predictions about the behavior of such economies based on the fisher condition work reasonably well in a laboratory setting the import of this finding for the theory of money is to show that the presence of a societal bank and default laws provide sufficient structure to support the use of fiat money and use of the bank rate to influence inflation or deflation although other institutions could provide alternatives

on dynamics and the core of og models stationary overlapping generations models can exhibit fluctuations however the fluctuations which have been studied by benhabib and day journal of economic dynamics and control 1982 4 37 55 gale journal of economic theory 1973 6 12 36 grandmont econometrica 1985 53 995 1046 and others are not in the core even though they are pareto optimal in the present paper it is shown that general stationary overlapping generation economies can have periodic equilibria in the core

a characterization of the core in overlapping generations economies abstract in this paper we characterize the set of consumption allocations that belong to the core and show that for the case of one agent per generation and one good no monetary equilibrium is in the core for economies with many goods we give bounds on the value of money transactions for competitive equilibria to belong to the core

on the stability of age earnings profiles age earnings profiles are compared across three countries japan sweden and the united states dynamic changes in period age and cohort characteristics and permanent differences across countries are discussed observed differences in profiles are explained partly by intertemporal country differences in the labor market situation and partly by institutional differences

life cycle variations in the association between current and lifetime income replication and extension for sweden we apply haider and solon s generalized errors in variables model to swedish income tax data to produce estimates of the association between current and lifetime income our estimates demonstrate strong life cycle patterns this implies that the widespread use of current income as a proxy for lifetime income leads to inconsistent parameter estimates i e life cycle bias even when the proxy is used as the dependent variable estimates for comparable cohorts of swedish and american men demonstrate surprising similarities there are however significant gender and cohort differences in this association that lead to statistically significant and quantitatively meaningful differences in life cycle biases

snapshots versus movies empirical studies of the intergenerational inheritance of economic status should use observations on complete lifetime status profiles of parents and children to be consistent with underlying theory but they cannot only snapshots rather than movies on status are currently available in samples estimates of the degree of intergenerational inheritance may therefore be subject to lifecycle biases the paper investigates these in the context of a lifecycle earnings model and shows that these biases may be large that their direction varies and that correction methods suggested hitherto have questionable reliability until more complete data sets become available researchers should be more temperate in the conclusions they draw

the effects of poor neonatal health on children s cognitive development we make use of a new data resource merged birth and school records for all children born in florida from 1992 to 2002 to study the relationship between birth weight and cognitive development using singletons as well as twin and sibling fixed effects models we find that the effects of early health on cognitive development are essentially constant through the school career that these effects are similar across a wide range of family backgrounds and that they are invariant to measures of school quality we conclude that the effects of early health on adult outcomes are therefore set very early

the bounded core of an overlapping generations economy the bounded core is the set of allocations which are not improved upon by any bounded set of agents we submit that the bounded core does not serve as a criterion for the efficiency of allocations in an overlapping generations economy for it may include allocations which are not even short run pareto optimal we also submit that the bounded core is a weak criterion for the robustness of allocations in an overlapping generations economy for it may not shrink to the set of competitive equilibrium allocations as the individual agents become negligible

electronic tickets smart cards and online prepayments when and how to advance sell advance selling occurs when sellers allow buyers to purchase at a time preceding consumption shugan and xie 2000 electronic tickets smart cards online prepayments and other technological advances make advance selling possible for many if not all service providers these technologies lower the cost of making complex transactions at a greater distance from the seller s site they also give sellers more control over advance selling by decreasing arbitrage as technology enhances the capability to advance sell more academic attention is vital this paper strives to exploit these technologies by developing advance selling strategies until recently advance selling research focused on the airline industry and specific characteristics of that industry these characteristics included the price insensitivity of late arrivals e g business travelers compared with early arrivals e g leisure travelers demand uncertainty across flights on the same day and capacity constraints recent findings by shugan and xie 2000 show that advance selling is a far more general marketing tool than previously thought it does not require these industry specific characteristics it only requires the existence of buyer uncertainty about future valuations moreover sellers without the ability to price discriminate can use advance selling to improve profits to the level of first degree price discrimination this finding is important because buyers are nearly always uncertain about their future valuations for most services e g the utility of next year s vacation or a future college education in this paper we take the next step from shugan and xie 2000 we show that advance selling profits do not come from buyer surplus but from more buyers being able to purchase we determine when and how to advance sell in a variety of situations including situations with limited capacity second period arrivals refunds buyer risk aversion exogenous credibility continuous preference distributions and premium pricing we determine when advance selling improves profits and when it does how to set advance prices we ask and answer seven questions first when should sellers advance sell second how much can advance selling improve profits compared with only spot selling third what factors impact the profitability of advance selling and how fourth should advance prices be higher or lower or the same as spot prices fifth how do capacity constraints impact advance selling strategies sixth should sellers limit the number of advance sales finally what is the possible impact of buyer risk aversion first we provide precise conditions when sellers should advance sell for example without capacity constraints we show that sellers should advance sell when marginal costs are sufficiently low to make it profitable to sell to buyers with low valuations and sufficiently high to convince buyers that the spot price will be higher than the advance price second we find that advance selling can almost double the profits from optimal spot selling to early arrivals we also show that advance selling has no impact on consumer surplus in markets with homogenous consumers and no capacity constraints therefore advance selling can increase social welfare because seller profits increase third we find that two very important factors impacting the profitability of advance selling are seller credibility and marginal costs buyers only advance buy when they expect an advantage from advance buying over spot buying without capacity constraints sellers must credibly convince buyers that the advance price is at a discount to the spot price we show that this condition is met under different circumstances for example large marginal costs can create credibility because buyers believe that these costs will lead to high spot prices fourth we find although optimal advance prices can be at a discount to the spot price that sometimes a premium is optimal premiums are optimal when capacity is large but limited and marginal costs are not too large buyers advance purchase at a premium to spot prices when capacity is limited and spot prices are low note that this is not a risk premium and risk aversion is not required no prior research has suggested this strategy because that research relies on the assumption that early arrivals are more price sensitive than later ones without that assumption premium advance pricing is sometimes optimal fifth we find that binding capacity constraints can impact the profitability of advance selling in opposite ways on one hand capacity constraints create seller credibility buyers believe that spot prices will be high when they know spot capacity is limited and perhaps more limited by advance sales on the other hand when capacity is limited the need to increase sales from discounted advance prices diminishes sixth consistent with desiraju and shugan 1999 we find that limiting advance sales can be profitable but only under restrictive conditions these conditions are 1 selling to all early arrivals would leave insufficient capacity in the spot period to sell to all second period arrivals with high valuations 2 the optimal spot price is high and 3 marginal costs are sufficiently small to make advance selling profitable finally we find that buyer risk aversion can sometimes increase the profitability of advance selling our findings provide precise guidelines for a large number of service providers that will have the technical capability to advance sell for those service providers advance selling provides a creative pricing strategy that can potentially provide substantial improvements in profits

longevity complementarities under competing risks many of the high expenditure health programs established by international organizations or national and subnational governments involve disease specific interventions such as measles vaccinations hiv education programs mammogram screening malaria prevention and lung cancer research typically these programs are evaluated solely upon the success or failure of their impact on the targeted disease this paper argues that such an exclusive evaluation may significantly underestimate the overall effect of disease specific interventions when multiple risks act as competing forces on life we suggest that programs that target one disease may have important spillover effects on the mortality and morbidity of other causes of death in order to better understand and evaluate the overall effects of disease specific programs it is necessary to understand and measure these spillover effects this paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the incentives introduced by disease specific mortality interventions more precisely we discuss predictions about health investment incentives as implied by the competing risk model which is the empirical framework almost exclusively used to study multiple cause mortality we show that important complementary effects between niultiple causes of death operate to equalize the occurrence of the causes we argue that this complementarity should alter the evaluation of cause specific interventions by discrediting the argument that interventions are wasted because competing mortality risks are just around the corner in support of the existence of such complementarities we present substantive evidence from one of the most important public health programs ever introduced in developing countries the expanded programme on immunization epi of the united nations the paper is organized as follows section i provides a theoretical analysis arguing that the competing risk model of multiple causes of mortality corresponds to the leontief production function of survival this implies that there are inherent complementarities between investments in the prevention of cause specific mortality risks both on the individual level and on the aggregate level for competing risks the marginal benefit of investing to avoid one cause of death increases as a function of the survival rates of other causes the implications of this complementarity are important and have not received sufficient attention in theoretical or practical evaluations of causespecific interventions when mortality is treated as exogenous a disease specific intervention may seem wasteful if members of the targeted group are likely to die from a second cause as soon as the first has been eliminated then reducing the mortality from one cause of death would not appear to substantially increase life expectancy indeed this argument is repeatedly made by economists and demographers about medical care interventions in old age however it is sguided to use the preintervention background mortality when assessing the effectiveness of an interventionbehavior under one policy should not be assumed to prevail under a new policy as the leontief nature of competing risks predicts health investments will be focused upon he most immediate cause of death so that there are dow department of health policy and administration cb 7400 university of north carolina chapel hill nc 27599 philipson irving b harris graduate school of public policy studies department of economics and the law school university of chicago 1155 east 60th street chicago il 60637 sala i martin department of econornics columbia university 420 west 118th street 1005 new york ny 10027 and universitat pompeu fabra we are thankful to three anonymous referees for comments that substantially improved the paper and we especially acknowledge the contributions of jessica holmes who was a research assistant and co author on early drafts of this work we also thank gary becker kate howe steen jorgenson casey mulligan sherwin rosen paul schultz and participants at numerous workshops for discussions dow acknowledges financial support from national institute on aging grant no t32 ag00244 philipson from the national science foundation and the rockefeller foundation this research was begun while all authors were at yale university during 1994

estimating a household production function heterogeneity the demand for health inputs and their effects on birth weight the household production literature emphasizes that technical or biological processes condition input selection by households in their production activities along with prices and income exogenous variations in health to the extent that they are perceived by individuals heterogeneity lead to correlations between inputs and health outcomes that cannot be used to derive causal conclusions therefore estimates of health technology must be obtained from a behavioral model in which health inputs are themselves choices consistent estimates are reported of the effect of endogenous inputs such as medical care smoking and fertility on birth weight and fetal growth in the presence of health heterogeneity

emergence of money as a medium of exchange an experimental study findings are reported from an experiment that implements a search theoretic model of money as a medium of exchange the question is whether subjects learn to adopt the same commodities as media of exchange that the model predicts will be used in equilibrium it is reported that subjects have a strong tendency to play fundamental rather than speculative strategies even in environments where speculative strategies yield higher payoffs some possible motivations for subjects behavior are examined and it is concluded that subjects are mainly motivated by past payoff experience as opposed to the marketability considerations that the theory emphasizes

indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world experimental evidence the authors design and study an olg experimental economy where the government finances a fixed real deficit through seigniorage the economy has continua of nonstationary rational expectations equilibria and two stationary rational expectations equilibria the authors do not observe nonstationary rational expectations paths observed paths tend to converge close to or somewhat below the low inflation stationary state the adaptive learning hypothesis is consistent with the data in selecting the low inflation stationary state rational expectations equilibrium as a long run stationary equilibrium nevertheless simple adaptive learning models do not capture the market uncertainty or the biases observed in the data copyright 1993 by the econometric society

agricultural spillover effects of cash transfers what does lewie have to say lewie simulations suggest that there are positive production spillovers fromsctprograms in nominal terms total production multipliers are always significantly greater than zero and income multipliers are always greater than one however real impacts depend on supply elasticities and market closure assumptions to date studies do not point to inflationary impacts of scts opm 2012a opm 2012b although the evidence on price effects is very limited this suggests that simulation 2 best characterizes the production impacts of scts which target poor economies with under utilized factors this simulation reveals a minimal inflationary impact and real production value added multipliers of 1 58 ksh per shilling transferred a key finding of lewie is that the production impacts are concentrated in nonbeneficiary households this is not surprising given the program s eligibility criteria which target the most asset and labor constrained households rcts focusing on treated households are likely to miss many or most of the productive impacts of social cash transfer programs this finding reaffirms the importance of a local economy wide approach if we wish to capture the transfers full impact finally our findings underline the importance of local supply constraints in shaping the impacts of transfer programs in the high unemployment environment characterizing rural kenya we believe it unlikely that there are significant labor constraints on production nevertheless production constraints limit program benefits particularly in nonbeneficiary households which are far and away the main source of new supply when production bottlenecks generate inflation transfers may even negatively affect some households interventions focusing on local production constraints in nonbeneficiary as well as beneficiary households may be needed to unlock the productive potential of scts

finite bubbles with short sale constraints and asymmetric information abstract we present a finite period general equilibrium model of an exchange economy with asymmetric information we say that a rational expectations equilibrium exhibits a strong bubble if the price is higher than the dividend with probability one we show that necessary conditions for a strong bubble to occur are that 1 each agent must have private information in the period and state in which the bubble occurs 2 each agent must be short sale constrained at some period in the future with positive probability and 3 agents trades are not common knowledge we present examples of bubbles when the necessary conditions are satisfied journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d52 d82 d84 g12 g14

playing with money abstract experimental work in monetary economics is usually based on theory that incorporates an infinite horizon yet hard constraints on laboratory sessions lead to finite times when the game must with probability 1 end and then simple backward induction implies monetary equilibria cannot exist hence these experiments cannot evaluate subjects ability to settle on the use of money as a medium of exchange that ameliorates trading frictions as an equilibrium outcome to address this we present some finite horizon games where monetary exchange is an equilibrium outcome and report some experimental results using these games

strategic customer behavior facing possible stockout an experimental study abstract this paper studies strategic customer behavior in a monopolistic seller system given the stock quantity and the selling prices a customer chooses either to buy at the full price to certainly obtain a product or to wait for a discount with the risk of stockout we model the behavior of strategic customers as a customer game it is shown that the customer game may have multiple nash equilibria specifically in the condition of weak incentive compatibility the trembling hand perfect equilibrium is all wait which is inconsistent with the all buy assumption in the literature we conduct laboratory experiments to investigate behavior of strategic customers the results show that customers behaviors exhibit a deviation from nash equilibria using a framework of quantal response equilibrium we develop behavioral models to effectively characterize the behavior of strategic customers

markdown or everyday low price the role of behavioral motives we study a seller s optimal pricing and inventory strategies when behavioral nonpecuniary motives affect consumers purchase decisions in particular the seller chooses between two pricing strategies markdown or everyday low price and determines the optimal prices and inventory level two salient behavioral motives that impact consumers purchase decisions and the seller s optimal strategies are anticipated regret and misperception of product availability regret arises when a consumer initially chooses to wait but encounters stockout later or when the consumer buys the product at the high price but realizes that the product is still available at the markdown price in addition consumers often perceive the product s future availability to be different than its actual availability we determine and quantify that both regret and availability misperception have significant operational and profit implications for the seller for example ignoring these behavioral factors can result in up to 10 profit

changes in life cycle earnings what do social security data show a matched sample of social security and current population survey records is used to examine life cycle earnings patterns of white males over the 1951 1976 period estimated direct effects of schooling and experience compare well with other studies but interaction effects with cohort do not younger cohorts exhibit smaller marginal returns to schooling and larger marginal returns to experience but differences between cohorts are very small when demographic factors namely veteran status are controlled direct cohort effects are linear in these data and show no tendency to vary with cohort size

society land love or money a strategic model of how to glue the generations together abstract the purpose of this paper is to show that if reasonable care is taken in well defining the types of games of strategy which arise naturally from considerations of the multigenerational aspects of any society then many different plausible explanations of intergenerational links will all be consistent with an ongoing economy with intergenerational transfers of wealth given that the problem is stated and deemed to be important what can we do about it in this paper we proceed by developing in highly simplified form the apparatus needed to consider a multistage variable person game of strategy this is applied to several relatively simple examples involving conscious altruism coded or instinctive behavior the threat of social custom and the role of ownership in conclusion it is argued that although the examples analyzed are simple they are examples of general phenomena the level of mathematical analysis itself is kept as a minimum further development calls for a considerable enlargement of notation and further discussion of items such as information games with infinite horizons and the many problems associable with the development of adequate solution theories for games played in extensive form as the stress is upon the modeling problems of glueing the generations together the game theory is presented only as a useful method for furthering this purpose because it stresses the general concepts of strategic analysis it is our belief that it is particularly suited to the analysis of situations in which economic social political and other decisions and motivations must be considered together

heterogeneity intrafamily distribution and child health data were collected in candelaria colombia from 1968 to 1974 to evaluate the impact of child health services in all households in which there were any children under 6 years old to estimate the birth outcome equation and post birth health equation a subsample of 109 households was selected in which at least 2 children were born during the 7 year program the sample size was 238 children estimates of the parameters of the normalized weight equations were obtained using seemingly unrelated regression sur the family fixed effects procedure ffe and the lagged instrumental fixed effects technique life an illustrative dynamic model of intra family allocative behavior incorporating variations in individual child characteristics was formulated to show how both the timing of childbearing and child specific allocations vary with both family and child specific health endowments the information restrictions were used in the model associated with the sequencing of births to develop an estimation procedure which takes into account both intrafamily and interfamily heterogeneity longitudinal data on children and households compared estimates of the effects of birth order birth spacing and timing per capita food consumption inoculations and the incidence of breast feeding on the age standardized weight of children at 2 life cycle points at birth and within 6 months after birth the estimates indicated that healthier families for given income had more children and more closely spaced children but consumed no more food per capita than did less well endowed families these results imply that families behave so as to reduce inherent interfamily inequalities in child health however while the estimates suggest that the healthier the prior surviving child the more quickly parents are likely to have a subsequent child parents are also more likely to breastfeed an inherently healthier child

birth weight in the long run we study the effect of birth weight on long run outcomes using data on swedish twins born between 1926 and 1958 linked to administrative records spanning entire life time labor market histories we

advance selling effects of interdependent consumer valuations and seller s capacity we examine the impact of consumer valuation interdependence and capacity on a firm s optimal selling strategies we consider a seller who can offer a single product to consumers twice in advance and in spot consumers choose whether and when to buy but if they buy in advance they are uncertain about their own valuations whether they buy in advance or in spot consumers valuations are realized in the spot period and they may range from fully independent to perfectly correlated creating markets with different characteristics of aggregate demand for the seller facing these consumers the seller chooses a portion of the total capacity to offer in advance and prices in both periods we describe how the optimal strategy and benefits of advance selling depend on the interdependence of consumer valuation as well as capacity level and other market parameters we find that a change in valuation interdependence can lead to dramatically different policies for the seller for example when individual valuations are highly diverse and the consumer population is large the seller must offer a discount during advance selling but may limit the advance sales on the other hand when valuations are highly correlated the seller can charge a premium price during advance selling for the same valuation interdependence the qualitative nature of the optimal strategy changes with available capacity this paper was accepted by martin lariviere operations management

purchasing pricing and quick response in the presence of strategic consumers we consider a retailer that sells a product with uncertain demand over a finite selling season the retailer sets an initial stocking quantity and at some predetermined point in the season optimally marks down remaining inventory we modify this classic setting by introducing three types of consumers myopic consumers who always purchase at the initial full price bargain hunting consumers who purchase only if the discounted price is sufficiently low and strategic consumers who strategically choose when to make their purchase a strategic consumer chooses between a purchase at the initial full price and a later purchase at an uncertain markdown price in equilibrium strategic consumers and the retailer make optimal decisions given their rational expectations regarding future prices availability of inventory and the behavior of other consumers we find that the retailer stocks less takes smaller price discounts and earns lower profit if strategic consumers are present than if there are no strategic consumers we find that a retailer should generally avoid committing to a price path over the season assuming such commitment is feasible committing to a markdown price or to not mark down at all is often too costly inventory may remain unsold even in the presence of strategic consumers the better approach is to be cautious with the initial quantity and then mark down optimally furthermore we discuss the value of quick response the ability to procure additional inventory after obtaining updated demand information albeit at a higher unit cost than the initial order we find that the value of quick response to a retailer is generally much greater in the presence of strategic consumers than without them on average 67 more valuable and as much as 558 more valuable in our sample in other words although it is well established in the literature that quick response provides value by allowing better matching of supply with demand it provides more value often substantially more value by allowing a retailer to control the negative consequences of strategic consumer behavior