asymmetric price responses of residential energy demand in ontario during the last few decades oil prices have experienced both sharp increases and more recently equally sharp decreases a number of researchers e g gately 1993a 1993b hogan 1993 shealy 1990 have examined the demand responses to these price movements and concluded that price induced changes in demand have not been symmetric more specifically this asymmetry is said to have taken the form of larger demand changes for price increases than for price decreases to explain this phenomenon it is typically argued that the oil price rises of the 1970s and early 1980s set in motion behavioural changes that had long lasting effects so that when price decreases occurred later in the 1980s relatively small changes in demand were observed shealy 1990 among others points to the capital stock as playing an important role in this process but does not explicitly incorporate infornmation on the stock of capital in the model he estimates studies that have examined this issue are typically based on as many as three broad levels of aggregation they tend to aggregate geographically focusing on entire countries or even groups of countries many of these studies also aggregate across sectors of the economy and thus fail to take into account the different patterns of energy utilization in different regions and or sectors of the economy finally by looking only at the demand for oil products or at total energy demand these studies do not explicitly allow for inter fuel substitution in contrast we examine residential energy demand in a single province ontario and allow for inter fuel substitution by specifying a system of fuel expenditure share equations which is estimated using annual data for the period 1962 1989 our focus on the residential sector is predicated on the

the role of amenities in a general equilibrium model of regional migration and growth economists have been steadily refining the theoretical framework developed by sherwin rosen 25 to determine the implicit prices of amenities rosen s model was a partial equilibrium model which focused on the behavior of households as consumers jennifer roback 23 24 substantially expanded rosen s model by explicitly including the behavior of firms in a more general framework which she used to measure the value of amenities blomquist berger and hoehn 3 extended the roback model by incorporating intraregional as well as interregional differences in amenities however their basic theoretical framework is the same as that proposed by roback other works in this literature which have been based on roback s model are primarily empirical in nature for example see beeson and eberts 2 in a recent paper voith 31 modifies roback s model by incorporating local as well as regional amenities and by recognizing that the effect of an amenity on wages and rents may differ depending upon the nature 6f the community i e whether the community is residential commercial or mixed use voith also presents empirical results with mixed success

employment and unemployment effects of unions despite an extensive literature examining the effects of unions on wages little attention has been paid to the resultant aggregate employment consequences of this change in the relative cost of unionized labor this article uses 1983 current population survey data to estimate the effects of union strength on the probability of employment and labor force participation union strength which reflects both union coverage and the union wage differential is found to decrease employment and increase unemployment by a small but significant amount these effects are concentrated primarily among females and young males while little impact is found on prime age males

residential energy demand in oecd countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements abstract after undergoing substantial changes during a period of high energy prices household energy demand did not rebound in times of declining energy prices as might have been expected hence other factors such as irreversible improvements in technical efficiency must be understood in order to describe both past and future household energy demand in this paper we consider irreversible efficiency improvements as a major reason for the moderate growth in energy demand after the plummeting of the oil price in 1985 we test different econometric models to take into account efficiency indicators the major conclusions of our investigation are i price elasticities are different for rising and falling prices for the latter they are close to zero implying a low rebound effect in the residential sector ii technical efficiency is an important parameter for describing and forecasting energy demand and iii income elasticities turn out to be higher once we incorporate indicators of technological efficiency in the process of estimating energy demand

determinants of regional migration by manufacturing firms economists have produced a sizable literature examining the role of labor migration in restoring wage and price equilibria among dispersed markets a much smaller literature addresses another dimension of mobility regional migration of entrepreneurs and firms in this study we examine a model of the firm s decision to migrate utilizing the duns market identifiers data file the model consists in part of an equation describing the decision to migrate in order to determine the extent to which measured characteristics of the firm s environment explain firm migration additional equations in the model explain particular outcomes of migration the growth in sales during a fixed interval after a move and the corresponding growth of employment

residential consumption of gas and electricity in the u s the role of prices and income abstract we study the residential demand for electricity and gas working with nationwide household level data that cover recent years namely 1997 2007 our dataset is a mixed panel multi year cross sections of dwellings households in the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the united states as of 2008 we estimate static and dynamic models of electricity and gas demand we find strong household response to energy prices both in the short and long term from the static models we get estimates of the own price elasticity of electricity demand in the 0 860 to 0 667 range while the own price elasticity of gas demand is 0 693 to 0 566 these results are robust to a variety of checks contrary to earlier literature metcalf and hassett 1999 reiss and white 2005 we find no evidence of significantly different elasticities across households with electric and gas heat the price elasticity of electricity demand declines with income but the magnitude of this effect is small these results are in sharp contrast to much of the literature on residential energy consumption in the united states and with the figures used in current government agency practice our results suggest that there might be greater potential for policies which affect energy price than may have been previously appreciated

monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy we lay out a small open economy version of the calvo sticky price model and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap we use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rulebased policy regimes for the small open economy domestic inflation and cpi based taylor rules and an exchange rate peg we show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail we also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules

variance properties of solow s productivity residual and their cyclical implications abstract for the united states economy 1960 1989 the correlation between the growth rates of the solow residual and the real price of energy government spending is 0 55 0 09 this study develops a model to see if it quantitatively captures the endogenous transmission mechanism underlying the observed solow residual correlations it does the transmission mechanism depends on endogenous capital utilization incorporating shocks to true technology energy prices and government spending the model economy accounts for 76 or 89 percent of u s output volatility and is generally consistent with features of u s business cycles

measuring the energy savings from home improvement investments evidence from monthly billing data an important factor driving energy policy over the past two decades has been the energy paradox the perception that consumers apply unreasonably high hurdle rates to energy saving investments we explore one possible explanation for this apparent puzzle that realized returns fall short of the returns promised by engineers and product manufacturers using a unique data set we find that the realized return to attic insulation is statistically significant but the median estimate 9 7 is almost identical to a discount rate for this investment implied by a capm analysis we conclude that the case for the energy paradox is weaker than has previously been believed

carbon tax scenarios and their effects on the irish energy sector abstract in this paper we use annual time series data from 1960 to 2008 to estimate the long run price and income elasticities underlying energy demand in ireland the irish economy is divided into five sectors residential industrial commercial agricultural and transport and separate energy demand equations are estimated for all sectors energy demand is broken down by fuel type and price and income elasticities are estimated for the primary fuels in the irish fuel mix using the estimated price and income elasticities we forecast irish sectoral energy demand out to 2025 the share of electricity in the irish fuel mix is predicted to grow over time as the share of carbon intensive fuels such as coal oil and peat falls the share of electricity in total energy demand grows most in the industrial and commercial sectors while oil remains an important fuel in the residential and transport sectors having estimated the baseline forecasts two different carbon tax scenarios are imposed and the impact of these scenarios on energy demand carbon dioxide emissions and government revenue is assessed if it is assumed that the level of the carbon tax will track the futures price of carbon under the eu ets the carbon tax will rise from 21 50 per tonne co2 in 2012 the first year forecasted to 41 in 2025 results show that under this scenario total emissions would be reduced by approximately 861 000 tonnes of co2 in 2025 relative to a zero carbon tax scenario and that such a tax would generate 1 1 billion in revenue in the same year we also examine a high tax scenario under which emissions reductions and revenue generated will be greater finally in order to assess the macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax the carbon tax scenarios were run in hermes the esri s medium term macroeconomic model the results from hermes show that a carbon tax of 41 per tonne co2 would lead to a 0 21 contraction in gdp and a 0 08 reduction in employment a higher carbon tax would lead to greater contractions in output

the demand for residential industrial and total electricity 1973 1998 this paper estimates residential industrial and total electricity demand by a partial adjustment approach and by a simultaneous equation approach simultaneous equation models are more appropriate since they provide negative price elasticity estimates for the residential industrial and total electricity samples flow adjustment models yield positive price elasticity estimates in some cases suggesting they fail to identify proper supply considerations that may be influencing prices the simultaneous equation approach suggests that residential customers are more price sensitive than industrial customers weather seems to have the greatest impact on the residential sector and cold weather appears to affect demand more than hot weather

the lagged impact of state and local taxes on economic activity and political behavior politicians are frequently characterized as making fiscal decisions based on a shorter time horizon than is required for full taxpayer adjustment thus generating near term benefits and relatively high tax rates this argument requires a negative impact of taxes on economic activity distributed over a relatively long time period considerable empirical evidence suggests that state and local taxes do not significantly impact the geographic distribution of economic activity this analysis however finds a significant negative distributed lag impact of such taxes on capital formation the approach emphasizes interstate tax competition in formulating the cross section time series estimating equation

business cycles in an oil economy abstract the recent oil price fall has created concern among policy makers regarding the consequences of terms of trade shocks for resource rich countries this concern is not a minor one the world s commodity exporters combined are responsible for 15 20 of global value added we develop and estimate a two country new keynesian model in order to quantify the importance of oil price shocks for norway a large prototype petroleum exporter domestic supply chains link mainland non oil norway to the off shore oil industry while fiscal authorities accumulate income in a sovereign wealth fund oil prices and the international business cycle are jointly determined abroad these features allow us to disentangle the structural sources of oil price fluctuations and how they affect mainland norway the estimated model provides three key results first oil price movements represent an important source of macroeconomic volatility in mainland norway second while no two shocks cause the same dynamics conventional trade channels make an economically less significant difference for the transmission of global shocks to the oil exporter than to oil importers third the domestic oil industry s supply chain is an important transmission mechanism for oil price movements while the prevailing fiscal regime provides substantial protection against external shocks

price sensitivity of residential energy consumption in norway abstract the main aim of this paper is to test the stability of the results of a model which focus on the relationship between the choice of heating equipment and the residential energy consumption the results for the income and energy price variables are of special interest stability in the time dimension is tested by applying the model on micro data for each of the years 1993 1995 the parameter estimates are stable within a 95 confidence interval however the estimated impact of the energy price variable on energy consumption was considerably weaker in 1994 than in 1993 and 1995 the results for two different income groups in the pooled data set are also subject to stability testing the energy price sensitivity in residential energy consumption is found to be higher for high income households than for low income households

automakers short run responses to changing gasoline prices abstract we provide empirical evidence that automobile manufacturers use cash incentives to offset how gasoline price fluctuations affect the expected fuel expenses of automobile buyers regressions based on a database of incentives over 2003 to 2006 suggest that on average manufacturers offset 40 of the change in relative fuel costs between vehicles due to gasoline price fluctuations the results highlight that carbon taxes and emissions trading programs likely would generate substantial substitution within vehicle classes and studies that ignore manufacturer discounting likely underestimate consumer demand for fuel economy the results also have implications for the optimal design of feebate programs

do state and local taxes affect economic growth this paper tests if variations in the treatment of expenditures by state and local governments are an explanation for the inconsistent results of previous tax studies estimates for net investment and employment in manufacturing for 1962 82 support this conjecture indicating that state and local taxes have a negative effect when the revenues are devoted to transfer payment programs and that with taxes held constant increases in expenditures on health education consistent with the vicious circle phenomenon do not appear simply to reflect common cyclical movements and provide evidence of structural linkages implicit in previous results for growth in state personal income copyright 1990 by mit press

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

estimation of short run and long run elasticities of energy demand from panel data using shrinkage estimators this article discusses the problem of obtaining short run and long run elasticities of energy demand for each of 49 states in the united states using data for 21 years estimation using the time series data by each state gave several wrong signs for the coefficients estimation using pooled data was not valid because the hypothesis of homogeneity of the coefficients was rejected shrinkage estimators gave more reasonable results the article presents in a unified framework the classical empirical bayes and bayes approaches for deriving these estimators

how serious is the aggregation problem an empirical illustration heterogeneity in consumer behaviour may create problems with aggregation across consumers if so we may not be able to make correct inferences about behaviour based on aggregated data however using micro estimates to predict aggregate demand responses to policy changes may also create a bias if not aggregated properly this may sound like a catch 22 situation but it is not as it is possible to calculate both micro and aggregate demand responses based on microdata the size of the aggregation bias is an empirical question in this article we show how to calculate theoretically consistent aggregate demand responses we use both micro and macro data for norwegian household electricity consumption to illustrate the magnitude and direction of different aggregation biases we find considerable aggregation biases in particular when estimating with macro data

public capital and the factor intensity of the manufacturing sector numerous studies have examined the effect of local fiscal policy on business activity few have emphasised local public services and fewer still have examined the effect of local fiscal policy on the composition of business activity using newly derived estimates of regional public infrastructure the effect of public capital on the factor intensity of the manufacturing sector of 36 smsas during the 1970 78 period is examined the findings of this study indicate that public investment can play an important role in determining the composition of a region s industrial sector

do unions discourage economic activity abstract previous examinations of the influence of unions on economic activity fail to use a measure of unionization that varies both by state and industry such a failure introduces the possibility of serious specification errors a possibility confirmed by comparing traditional estimates which suggest unions depress a state s economic activity with new estimates which reveal no such effect

who offers tax based business development incentives abstract many american communities seek to attract or retain businesses with tax abatements tax credits or tax increment financing of infrastructure projects tifs the evidence for 1999 indicates that communities are most likely to offer one or more of these business development incentives if their residents have low incomes if they are located close to state borders and if their states have troubled political cultures ten percent greater median household income is associated with a 3 2 lower probability of offering incentives 10 greater distance from a state border is associated with a 1 0 lower probability of offering incentives and a 10 higher rate at which government officials are convicted of federal corruption crimes is associated with a 1 2 greater probability of offering business incentives tifs are the preferred incentive of communities whose residents have household incomes between 25 000 and 75 000 whereas tifs are much less commonly offered by communities whose residents have household incomes below 25 000 the need to finance tifs out of incremental tax revenues may make it infeasible for many of the poorest of communities to use tifs for local business development

economic growth and human capital accumulation simultaneity and expanded convergence tests abstract earlier economic growth studies are extended to account for simultaneity between economic growth and human capital accumulation the speed of income convergence and contribution of human capital to economic growth are underestimated if contemporaneous human capital growth effects are ignored

residential electricity demand in spain new empirical evidence using aggregate data this paper presents an empirical analysis on residential demand for electricity this analysis has been performed using aggregate panel data at the province level for 47 spanish provinces for the period from 2000 to 2008 for this purpose we estimated a log log demand equation for electricity consumption using a dynamic partial adjustment approach this dynamic demand function has been estimated using a two step system gmm estimator proposed by blundell and bond 1998 the purpose of this empirical analysis is to highlight some of the characteristics of spanish residential electricity demand particular attention has been paid to the influence of price income and weather conditions on electricity demand the estimated short and long run own price elasticities are negative as expected but lower than 1 furthermore weather variables have a significant impact on electricity demand

change in consumer sensitivity to electricity prices in response to retail deregulation a panel empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity in the united states abstract about ten years have passed since the deregulation of the u s retail electricity market and it is now generally accepted that the available data is adequate to quantitatively assess and compare conditions before and after deregulation this study therefore estimates the changes in price elasticity in the residential electricity market to examine the changes if any in household sensitivity as a result of retail electricity market deregulation policies to residential electricity rates specifically six types of panel data are prepared based on three cross sections all states except for alaska and hawaii and the district of columbia deregulated states and non deregulated states and two time series the period before deregulation and the period after deregulation the panel empirical analysis techniques are used to determine whether or not the variables are stationary and to estimate price elasticity we find that there is no substantial difference in the price elasticity between deregulated and non deregulated states for both periods before deregulation and after deregulation thus it can be said that the deregulation of the retail electricity market has not made consumers more sensitive to electricity rates and that retail deregulation policies are not the cause of price elasticity differences between deregulated and non deregulated states

monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy this paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in a small open economy featuring monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities it shows that the utility based loss function for this economy can be written as a quadratic expression of domestic inflation output gap and real exchange rate the presence of an internal monopolistic distortion and a terms of trade externality drives optimal policy away from domestic inflation targeting and affects the optimal level of exchange rate volatility when domestic and foreign goods are close substitutes for each other the optimal policy rule implies lower real exchange rate volatility than a domestic inflation targeting regime the reverse is true when the elasticity of substitution between goods is low

energy consumption for space heating a discrete continuous approach energy demand for space heating is estimated using a discrete continuous choice model which focuses on the relationship between the choice of heating equipment and energy consumption the model is estimated on norwegian micro data and the two stages of the model are estimated simultaneously the capital cost and the operating cost of the heating systems are both found to have a significant impact on the choice of heating system furthermore the results show that household characteristics are important variables in residential energy models energy price elasticities and income elasticities are also estimated

the rebound effect microeconomic definitions limitations and extensions abstract the rebound effect results in part from an increased consumption of energy services following an improvement in the technical efficiency of delivering those services this increased consumption offsets the energy savings that may otherwise be achieved if the rebound effect is sufficiently large it may undermine the rationale for policy measures to encourage energy efficiency the nature and magnitude of the rebound effect is the focus of long running dispute with energy economics this paper brings together previous theoretical work to provide a rigorous definition of the rebound effect to clarify key conceptual issues and to highlight the potential consequences of various assumptions for empirical estimates of the effect the focus is on the direct rebound effect for a single energy service indirect and economy wide rebound effects are not discussed beginning with khazzoom s original definition of the rebound effect we expose the limitations of three simplifying assumptions on which this definition is based first we argue that capital costs form an important part of the total cost of providing energy services and that empirical studies that estimate rebound effects from variations in energy prices are prone to bias second we argue that energy efficiency should be treated as an endogenous variable and that empirical estimates of the rebound effect may need to apply a simultaneous equation model to capture the joint determination of key variables third we explore the implications of the opportunity costs of time in the production of energy services and highlight the consequences for energy use of improved time efficiency the influence of time costs on the rebound effect and the existence of a parallel rebound effect with respect to time each of these considerations serves to highlight the difficulties in obtaining reliable estimates of the rebound effect and the different factors that need to be controlled for we discuss the implications of these findings for econometric studies and argue that several existing studies may overestimate the magnitude of the effect

smart meter devices and the effect of feedback on residential electricity consumption evidence from a natural experiment in northern ireland abstract using a unique set of data and exploiting a large scale natural experiment we estimate the effect of real time usage information on residential electricity consumption in northern ireland starting in april 2002 the utility replaced prepayment meters with advanced meters that allow the consumer to track usage in real time we rely on this event account for the endogeneity of price and payment plan with consumption through a plan selection correction term and find that the provision of information is associated with a decline in electricity consumption of 11 17 we find that the reduction is robust to different specifications selection bias correction methods and subsamples of the original data the advanced metering program delivers reasonably cost effective reductions in carbon dioxide emissions even under the most conservative usage reduction scenarios

regional electric power demand elasticities of japan s industrial and commercial sectors abstract in the assessment and review of regulatory reforms in the electric power market price elasticity is one of the most important parameters that characterize the market however price elasticity has seldom been estimated in japan instead it has been assumed to be as small as 0 1 or 0 without proper examination of the empirical validity of such a priori assumptions we estimated the regional power demand functions for nine regions in order to quantify the elasticity and found the short run price elasticity to be 0 09 0 30 and the long run price elasticity to be 0 12 0 56 inter regional comparison of our estimation results suggests that price elasticity in rural regions is larger than that in urban regions popular assumptions of small elasticity of 0 1 for example could be suitable for examining japan s aggregate power demand but not power demand functions that focus on respective regions furthermore assumptions about smaller elasticity values such as 0 01 and 0 could not be supported statistically by this study

public infrastructure and regional economic development a simultaneous equations approach an analysis of how central bank exchange market intervention can affect both the level of exchange rates and the risk premium in asset returns showing how the risk premium is related to the conditional variances of intervention and other exogenous processes

unobservables in consumer choice residential energy and the demand for comfort a model of consumption of residential energy in dwellings is developed distinguishing between attributes of housing that provide direct benefits to consumers and attributes that serve as inputs in the production of final goods for example the thermal comfort of dwellings empirical estimates are made of the mode based upon the annual housing survey and the results are used to calculate the effects of changes in energy prices on the consumption of housing residential energy and other goods the analysis suggests that the adjustment process within the housing market permits a great deal of substitution in response to energy price changes copyright 1989 by mit press

the effects of economic development policy on local economic growth this article after examining the evidence for the conventional wisdom that development policies are ineffective reports the results of an empirical analysis of the effects of local policies on manufacturing growth in u s cities in response to design difficulties in previous studies the effects of local economic development policy on manufacturing activity for 212 cities were estimated with a disequilibrium adjustment model the results provide evidence that local policies have positive effects on capital investment but little effect on employment

durable goods and residential demand for energy and water evidence from a field trial this article describes a household production model in which energy efficient durable goods cost less to operate so households may use them more the model is estimated using household level data from a field trial in which participants received high efficiency clothes washers free of charge the estimation strategy exploits this quasi random replacement of washers to derive precise estimates of the household production technology and a demand function for clothes washing during the field trial households increased clothes washing on average by 5 6 after receiving a high efficiency washer implying a price elasticity of 06 the complete model is used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of recent changes in minimum efficiency standards for clothes washers

economic growth regressions for the american states a sensitivity analysis i introduction researchers motivated by a variety of questions turn to data on the economic performance of the american states to analyze their ideas empirically the appeal of cross state empirical analysis derives from the fact that while states differ in relevant dimensions they are not so different as to make omitted variables an overwhelming source of error for example the state economies operate under the same monetary regime the federal reserve comparable legal institutions the u s constitution and borders open to the flow of productive factors knowledge and products cross state analysis avoids the myriad structural differences that encumber cross national empirical analysis thus investigators feel secure in considering a relatively small number of control variables in attempting to establish a statistical relationship between state economic performance and a particular variable of interest the availability of uniform and accurate time series data for the states adds to the appeal of cross state regression models despite the advantages associated with evaluating institutionally similar economies researchers who rely on state regressions find little systematic guidance concerning which variables to include and other basic specification issues for instance do demographic and geographic characteristics vary sufficiently across states to require independent controls do cultural or climatic conditions affect growth or are these variables correlated with other factors that may affect growth such as labor force participation rates or education levels a review of the extensive literature reveals that few studies control for the variables analyzed by other researchers these specification differences make it hard to evaluate and compare the results of existing studies bartik 1991 and phillips and goss 1995 illustrate this problem as they attempt to garner the effect of taxes on state economic development from dozens of studies that employ alternative specifications and methodologies they use meta regression analysis mra to test whether specification changes and alternative variables significantly affect the estimated elasticity of state growth with respect to taxes the mra technique focuses on the sensitivity of the estimated coefficients for state tax variables to model variation in this paper we employ a technique to assess the sensitivity of numerous control variables identified in the state growth literature we also introduce several new control variables the approach identifies which variables are robust to small changes in the conditioning information set our procedure closely follows that in levine and renelt 1992 which for its part relies on the extreme bounds analysis eba suggested by learner 1983 1985 1 the main difference is that we employ annual panel data on the american states pooling cross sectional and time series data whereas levine and renelt employ cross country data averaged over 20 year or even longer time intervals the cross country studies such as those assessed in levine and renelt that average long time periods generally seek to identify factors associated with long run steady state growth the u s state studies using annual panel data do not share a comparable unifying purpose relationships estimated from yearly data reveal short term responses and pick up business cycle effects which confounds drawing implications about growth theory with this qualification in mind the results presented below indicate which variables included in past studies are robust and provide a set of core variables as a starting point for future research that relies on state growth regressions and annual panel data finally the findings demonstrate that several important conclusions in the literature depend on how variables are measured for example the relationship between state growth and government size reverses sign depending on whether we denominate government size in per capita terms or as a share of state income

sensitivity of price elasticity of demand to aggregation unobserved heterogeneity price trends and price endogeneity evidence from u s data abstract price elasticity estimates of residential electricity demand vary widely across the energy economics and policy literature in this paper we seek to explain these findings using three nationwide datasets from the u s the american housing survey forms eia 861 and the residential energy consumption survey we examine the role of the sample period level of aggregation use of panel data use of instrumental variables and inclusion of housing characteristics and capital stock our findings suggest that price elasticities have remained relatively constant over time upon splitting our panel datasets into annual cross sections we do observe a negative relationship between price elasticities and the average price whether prices are rising or falling appears to have little effect on our estimates we also find that aggregating our data can result in both higher and lower price elasticity estimates depending on the dataset used and that controlling for unit level fixed effects with panel data generally results in more inelastic demand functions addressing the endogeneity of price and or measurement error in price with instrumental variables has a small but noticeable effect on the price elasticities finally controlling for housing characteristics and capital stock produces a lower price elasticity

estimation of elasticity price of electricity with incomplete information abstract the sharp increase in energy prices and growing concern for environmental issues among other things are behind the renewed interest in energy demand estimation however there is scarce academic literature that takes real situation of energy suppliers into account high quality but incomplete data in this paper we propose a useful and rather simple instrument for estimating electricity demand with the incomplete and or imperfect data currently available to suppliers in particular using real expenditure and consumption data on electricity we employ a model of random effects for panel data to estimate residential and industrial electricity demand in spain

how should monetary policy respond to changes in the relative price of oil considering supply and demand shocks abstract this paper examines optimal monetary policy in a new keynesian model where supply and demand shocks affect the price of oil optimal policy fully stabilizes core inflation when wages are flexible the nominal rate rises falls in response to the demand supply shock with sticky wages core inflation falls rises in response to the demand supply shock impulse response functions from a var estimated with post 1986 u s data show minimal movement in core inflation in response to both shocks the federal funds rate rises falls in response to the demand supply shock consistent with the predictions from the theoretical model for policy that stabilizes core inflation

short and long run elasticities of electricity demand in the korean service sector abstract this paper attempts to examine the electricity demand function in the korean service sector using the annual data covering the period 1970 2011 the short and long run elasticities of electricity demand with respect to price and income are empirically estimated using a co integration and error correction model the short and long run price elasticities are estimated to be 0 421 and 1 002 respectively the short and long run income elasticities are computed to be 0 855 and 1 090 respectively electricity demand in the service sector is inelastic to changes in both price and income in the short run but elastic in the long run therefore it appears that a pricing policy is more effective than the direct regulation of reducing electricity demand in the long run in order to stabilize the electricity demand in the service sector moreover it is necessary to encourage a more efficient use of electricity to cope with increasing demand for electricity following economic growth because the electricity demand in the service sector is income elastic in the long run

the effect of state and local taxes on economic development a meta analysis economists and policy makers have long questioned the effect of state and local taxes on economic development according to schmenner 55 economists have long argued that taxes had little impact on business location decisions while development practitioners and elected officials ignored this advice and aggressively pursued development by using tax incentives more recent research using improved data and methodologies has begun to show that taxes can make a difference and the emerging consensus among economists now says that taxes do matter this changing view among researchers is perhaps best exemplified in a 1991 study by timothy j bartik 2 bartik examined 84 econometric studies completed since 1979 which assess the impact of state and local taxes on economic growth in the u s he concluded that the long run elasticity of business activity with respect to state and local taxes was between 10 and 60 for studies focusing on intermetropolitan or interstate business economic activity and between 1 0 and 3 0 for intrametropolitan areas however bartik s study did not control for a variety of study characteristics that may have influenced the measured elasticity this study builds upon bartik s analysis by performing a meta analysis of the studies bartik reviewed meta analysis is a method for statistically analyzing results across empirical studies though it has been little used by economists researchers in psychology education and health sciences have used meta analysis extensively this study uses a meta analytic technique suggested by stanley and jarrell 57 to analyze the studies reviewed by bartik the technique yields increased precision for our understanding of the relationship between state and local taxes and economic development the objective of this study is two fold first to derive a more precise estimate of the tax elasticity and second to determine how the inclusion and omission of key variables in the estimated equations influences the elasticity estimates

monetary policy response to oil price shocks how should monetary authorities react to an oil price shock this paper shows that in a noncompetitive economy policies that perfectly stabilize prices entail large welfare costs hence explaining the reluctance of policymakers to enforce them the policy trade off is nontrivial because oil energy is an input to both production and consumption as welfare maximizing policies are hard to implement and communicate i derive a simple interest rate rule that depends only on observables but mimics the optimal plan in all dimensions the optimal rule is hard on core inflation but accommodates oil price changes

notes on the underground monetary policy in resource rich economies how should monetary policy respond to a commodity price shock in a resource rich economy as in the baseline new keynesian model the central bank of a small oil exporting economy faces a tradeoff between the stabilization of domestic infl ation and an appropriately defined output gap but in our framework the output gap depends on oil technology and the weight on output gap stabilization is increasing in the importance of the oil sector given substantial spillovers to the rest of the economy optimal policy calls for a reduction of the interest rate following a drop in the oil price in contrast a central bank with a mandate to stabilize consumer price infl ation would raise interest rates to limit the infl ationary impact of an exchange rate depreciation

the effect of state and local taxes on economic growth a time series cross section approach results based on pooled time series and cross section data are presented which indicate that state and local tax increases significantly retard economic growth when the revenue is used to fund transfer payments however when the revenue is used instead to finance improved public services such as education highways and public health and safety the favorable impact on location and production decisions provided by the enhanced services may more than counterbalance the disincentive effects of the associated taxes these findings underscore the importance of considering the incentives provided by a state s expenditures as well as by its taxes i n the past several years a number of states have implemented limitations on taxes or expenditures while others have raised tax rates in response to the revenue shortfalls of the early 1980s although much of the ongoing debate over state fiscal structures revolves around expressed preferences over tax expenditure combinations per se the question of how state and local taxes may affect economic growth is often central to the discussion nonetheless the empirical evidence remains sparse previous studies can be divided into two broad categories assessments of the magnitudes of tax costs and statistical analyses of the relationship between tax rates and growth cost studies have tended to minimize the role of taxes in business location decisions either because state and local taxes are a relatively small component of total costs for most businesses or because interstate tax differences are small relative to other cost differences between states although these results suggest that the role played by taxes is a minor one describing how large the tax disparities may be is not the same as ascertaining their economic effect of the statistical studies many including bloom 1955 thompson and mattila 1959 and carlton 1979 1983 find no relationship between taxes and growth however kleine 1977 grieson 1980 and generally grieson et al 1977 report negative correlations romans and subrahmanyam 1979 find growth to be negatively related to the fraction of revenues devoted to transfer payments and a variable which they claim measures personal tax progressivity but positively related to business taxes with the exception of carlton who estimates models of the birth and size of firms within metropolitan areas and the grieson et al 1977 and grieson 1980 studies which consider taxes in new york city and philadelphia these authors use data from a single cross section of states more recently newman 1983 and plaut and pluta 1983 both use cross sectional data from two time periods the former finding negative effects of corporate tax rates and the latter yielding mixed results in this study we utilize a time series from 1965 through 1979 of cross sections of 48 states exploiting the richness of this data set we are able to allow for otherwise unexplained differences between states which could be expected to bias results based on a single cross section moreover this much larger sample provides the statistical power necessary to disentangle the separate effects of different categories of taxes public expenditures and transfer payments a distinguishing feature of this paper is that we explicitly recognize the government budget constraint linking these fiscal variables and the deficit or surplus in addition we have taken account of the effects of labor force characteristics by including variables for wage rates unionization and population density our results indicate that tax increases significantly retard economic growth when the revenue is used to fund transfer payments as a result programs of income redistribution are more effectively undertaken at the federal than at the state and local level on the other hand when the revenue is received for publication april 30 1984 revision accepted for publication january 22 1985 university of california davis i am indebted to the institute of governmental affairs at the university of california davis for financial support to adrienne kandel for invaluable research assistance and to two referees for their helpful comments 1 see williams 1967 morgan and brownlee 1974 vasquez and deseve 1977 and the advisory commission on intergovernmental relations 1981 see also due 1961 for a survey of the early literature including a discussion of the findings and limitations of survey results on this topic 574 1 copyright 1985 this content downloaded from 157 55 39 35 on mon 29 aug 2016 04 45 38 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms state and local taxes and economic growth 575 used instead to finance enhanced public services such as highways education and public health and safety the favorable impact on location and production decisions provided by the improved services may more than counterbalance the disincentive effects of the concomitant taxes these findings underscore the importance of considering the incentives provided by a state s expenditures as well as by its taxes we begin by sketching a model which provides the basis for the analysis and discussing appropriate estimation techniques then in section ii we describe the data used and our hypotheses the econometric results are presented in section iii followed by brief concluding remarks in the final

estimating residential demand for electricity in the united states 1965 2006 abstract this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in the us economy as a function of the per capita income the price of electricity the price of oil for heating purposes the weather conditions and the stock of occupied housing over the period 1965 2006 this paper has two novelties first the occupied stock of houses as a proxy for the stock of electrical appliances and second the identification of a possible equilibrium relationship among the variables is ascertained through the recently advanced ardl approach to cointegration our empirical findings give support to a stable long run relationship implying also short run and long run elasticities whose size and sign are comparable to other similar studies

accounting for behavioral effects of increases in the carbon dioxide co2 tax in revenue estimation in sweden in this paper we describe how behavioral responses of carbon dioxide co 2 tax increases are accounted for in tax revenue estimation in sweden the rationale for developing a method for this is a

modeling the impact of a carbon tax a trial analysis for washington state abstract in recent years energy policy makers have proposed a carbon tax as an economy wide policy tool to curb greenhouse gas ghg emissions the quantification of its impact on ghg emissions has relied on an energy economy model whose complexity often makes it difficult to comprehend how it simulates the interaction of a carbon tax and energy demand this study therefore aims at developing an alternative model called the carbon tax analysis model c tam the elasticity based approach used in c tam is less sophisticated than an equilibrium based approach used in an energy economy model but c tam is designed to maximize its predictive capabilities by using a wide range of elasticities for each sector and fuel use accounting for likely changes in fuel mix for electricity generation and addressing the model s sensitivity to elasticity estimates with monte carlo simulation the trial analysis in this study evaluates a potential carbon tax in washington state suggesting a carbon tax at us 30 per metric ton of co 2 tco 2 lowers ghg emissions by 8 4 from the business as usual bau scenario in 2035 the study concludes that c tam can provide meaningful policy implications by forecasting detailed impact on revenues and energy demand for each sector and fuel use

what do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data the aim of this paper is to assess the importance of using micro level data in the econometric analysis of consumer demand to do this we utilize a time series of repeated cross sections covering some 4 000 households in each of 15 years employing a number of different aggregation procedures we conclude that aggregate data alone are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of structural price and income coefficients however once certain aggregation factors as well as trend and seasonal components are included an aggregate model is not necessarily outperformed across all demand equations in terms of forecasting ability jel d12 c52 c31 the purpose of this paper is to develop a complete consumer demand system based on a time series of individual household data and to use it to measure the biases introduced into the study of consumer de mand behavior when aggregate data are used in place of the appropriate microeco nomic data we assess the suitability of ag gregate data through the impact on income and price elasticities and by evaluating the ability of both micro and aggregate based models to forecast aggregate consumer de mand the biases introduced by the use of aggregate data depend upon the way that household characteristics interact with in come and price effects and on departures of demand systems from linearity we explore the structure of microeconomic demand sys tems and the role of household characteris tics in the behavior of consumer demand both for the light this may shed on the pattern of future demands and for the im plications this behavior has for issues of aggregation consumer demand patterns typically found in micro data sets vary considerably across households with different household characteristics and with different levels of income we model this variability by making intercept and slope parameters in the budget share equations of our demand sys tem depend on household characteristics and by allowing for nonlinear total log expenditure terms in fact in theory consistent demand systems it is total ex penditure rather than disposable income that is allocated across goods we find that this general framework leads to a well specified data coherent demand system which is a quadratic extension of the popu lar almost ideal model of angus s deaton and john muellbauer 1980 the micro level estimates are shown to be sensitive to the treatment of endogeneity of total expen diture and to the specification of interaction terms with household characteristics in ad dition this specification is also shown to possess many attractive features for the evaluation of aggregate models

estimation of japanese price elasticities of residential electricity demand 1990 2007 abstract this paper estimates elasticities of japanese residential price electricity from 1990 to 2007 the first difference generalized method of moment estimator is employed to avoid dynamic panel bias which is not considered in most previous studies the results show that while short run elasticities are similar to those in previous studies long run elasticities are significantly lower in our study we also find that the price elasticity of japanese residential electricity consumption is notably affected by income inequality and severe weather based on these results we provide some insights to tailor environmental taxation so as to effectively attain the kyoto protocol

industry migration and growth in the south for at least the last two decades the south and southwest have been the fastest growing regions in the united states during this period we have witnessed considerable shifts in the location of economic activity and overall the movement has been decidedly toward the south since the early sixties when this southern migration began to accelerate an increasing amount of public attention has been directed to this topic so much so that it is now popularly referred to as the sunbelt phenomenon numerous explanations have been advanced to account for this rapid growth in the south but three explanations have persistently evoked an impressive level of debate first many have argued that a significant portion of this regional redistribution can be attributed to differentials in state and local taxing policies in particular the state corporate income tax these rates vary considerably across states but even more important is the observation that there have been significant changes in the structure of corporate taxes over the last few decades beginning in the early 1950s the relative tax rate for several southern states particularly those in the east south central and west south central divisions began to decline sharply on the other hand relative tax rates for three divisions new england the east north central and the midatlantic rose in the early sixties by 1970 the relative tax rate ranged from 0 60 in the west south central down from 1 20 in 1950 to 1 37 in the mid atlantic up from 1 15 in 1950 notwithstanding these stylized facts the consensus from previous empirical work on industry location suggests that state taxes have not influenced the direction or magnitude of industry migration however there are reasons to believe that acceptance of this conclusion may be premature for example in the early body of work results were based on simple correlations of tax levels and changes in either value added or employment 2 more recent attempts to empirically model corporate tax effects have arrived at somewhat ambiguous results carlton 1977 examining three 4 digit industries found that corporate tax differentials failed to explain any of the variation in new births of firms across smsas hodge 1979 while confirming carlton s results for the same industries discovered that taxes have significantly affected regional investment patterns in another industry not covered in carlton s study 3 why taxes mattered in one industry and not in the other three remained a matter of ad hoc speculation a second explanation alleges that states in the south have begun to exhibit a more favorable business climate although it is difficult to measure directly a state s business climate one important manifestation of that climate is its position with respect to the division of power between union and management in the collective bargaining process legal obstacles to union organization and bargaining power will be viewed by firms as a positive signal of a pro business environment the creation of legislative obstareceived for publication october 29 1981 revision accepted for publication april 16 1982 miami university the author is especially indebted to michael ward at the rand corporation for numerouls helpful discussions throughout the preparation of this study also the author benefited from the advice and comments of john antel robert cotterman lee lillard john lunn william j moore james smith finis welch and two referees of this review financial suppoi t was provided by the foundation for research in economics and education at ucla and the university of british columbia humanities and social sciences committee i the relative tax is defined as a state s tax rate divided by the average for all states as in most economic discussions it is relative price that matters 2 for a review of earlier work see due 1961 some of the studies reviewed include bloom 1955 campbell 1958 floyd 1952 and larson 1957 see also garwood 1952 3 most of the other empirical work focused exclusively on intt urban location decisions and hence had no reason to examine state corporate taxes however they found local tax differentials inter zonal were unimportant in determining intra urban movement for example see moses and williamson 1967 and schmenner 1978

the economic impact of right to work laws evidence from collective bargaining agreements and corporate policies abstract we analyze the economic and financial impact of right to work rtw laws in the us using data from collective bargaining agreements we show that there is a decrease in wages for unionized workers after rtw laws firms increase investment and employment but reduce financial leverage labor intensive firms experience higher profits and labor to asset ratios dividends and executive compensation also increase post rtw our results are consistent with a canonical theory of the firm augmented with an exogenous bargaining power of labor and suggest that rtw laws impact corporate policies by decreasing that bargaining power