addressing leakage in the eu ets border adjustment or output based allocation the eu ets has been criticised for threatening the competitiveness of european industry and generating carbon leakage i e increasing foreign greenhouse gas emissions two main options have been put forward to tackle these concerns border adjustments and output based allocation i e allocation of free allowances in proportion to current production we compare various configurations of these two options as well as a scenario with full auctioning and no border adjustment against this background we develop a model of the main sectors covered by the eu ets electricity steel cement and aluminium we conclude that the most efficient way to tackle leakage is auctioning with border adjustment which generally induces a negative leakage a spillover this holds even if the border adjustment does not include indirect emissions if it is based on eu rather than foreign specific emissions or for some values of the parameters if it covers only imports another relatively efficient policy is to combine auctioning in the electricity sector and output based allocation in exposed industries especially if free allowances are given both for direct and indirect emissions i e those generated by the generation of the electricity consumed although output based allocation is generally less effective than border adjustment to tackle leakage it is more effective to mitigate production losses in the sectors affected by the ets which may ease climate policy adoption c 2011 elsevier b v all rights reserved

energy security in asean a quantitative approach for sustainable energy policy abstract we investigate energy security of the association of southeast asian nations asean under the 4 a s framework the asean economic community aec agreement launched in 2015 renewed a regional focus on energy security and sustainability we employ an analytic framework to quantitatively assess progress in different categories including availability acceptability affordability and applicability key metrics include the documentation of co 2 emissions energy access measures and energy supply reserves from 2005 2010 we identify relevant energy indicators using high quality historical data from the iea and world bank we find that asean made little progress toward establishing energy security in the previous five year planning period 2005 2010 as it regressed in most categories except applicability therefore we suggest that increased development of renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies would move asean in a positive direction toward achieving energy security and sustainable energy policy goals

the energy transition of the transition economies an empirical analysis the aggregate manufacturing energy intensity of 28 countries in eastern europe and central asia had declined by 35 percent during 1998 2008 this study reveals strong evidence of convergence less efficient countries improved more rapidly and the cross country variance in energy productivity narrowed over time an index decomposition analysis indicates that energy intensities declined largely because of more efficient energy use rather than shifts from energy intensive to less intensive manufacturing activities income growth and energy price increases were the main drivers of the convergence they dominated the impact of trade which led to specialization in energy intensive industries

dynamics and determinants of energy intensity in the service sector a cross country analysis 1980 2005 we present a detailed analysis of energy intensity developments across 23 service sectors in 18 oecd countries over the period 1980 2005 we find that the shift towards a service economy has contributed to lower overall energy intensity levels in the oecd but this contribution would have been considerably larger if the service sector had realized the same degree of energy efficiency improvements as the manufacturing sector in most oecd countries energy intensity levels in services tend to decrease relatively slow especially after 1995 if we control this trend for the impact of structural changes within the services sector by means of a decomposition analysis we find that in about one third of the oecd countries energy intensity levels in services have increased over time the impact of structural changes on aggregate energy intensity dynamics in services has increased considerably after 1995 highlighting a relatively poor energy efficiency performance within a wide range of service sectors we show that the introduction of information and communication technology ict plays a potentially important role here using panel data regression analysis we find a limited role for energy prices in explaining variation in energy productivity while climate conditions clearly impact energy productivity

the tree cutting problem in a stochastic environment the case of age dependent growth abstract harvest policies are derived for growing biological assets e g forests livestock subject to stochastic age dependent growth and price uncertainty the task posed is analyzed as a continuous time optimal stopping problem for diffusion processes both single and ongoing rotation problems are considered qualitative comparative static and numerical results are provided

energy metrics for driving competitiveness of countries energy weakness magnitude gdp per barrel and barrels per capita abstract energy metrics is the development of a whole new theoretical framework for the conception and measurement of energy and economic system performances energy efficiency and productivity improvements with important political economy implications consistent with the best use of all natural and economic resources the purpose of this research is to present some vital energy indicators based on magnitude and scale of energy weakness gdp per barrel of oil that is an indicator of energy productivity and barrels of oil per capita that is an indicator of energy efficiency energy metrics can support the monitoring of energy and economic system performances in order to design effective energy strategy and political economy interventions focused on the competitive advantage increase of countries in modern economies

informational efficiency of markets for stumpage this paper examines the weak form informational efficiency of markets for pine sawtimber stumpage in the u s south analyses of annual and quarterly rates of price change generally indicate that stumpage markets are efficient when viewed over monthly intervals stumpage markets do not pass the tests for weak form efficiency this failure is attributed to friction in the market due to the time and cost involved in consumating timber sales the results have implications for price responsive timber harvest scheduling for the application of asset pricing models to forestry investments and for policies governing sales of timber from public lands

account for sector heterogeneity in china s energy consumption sector price indices vs gdp deflator abstract a common practice in decomposition analyses is to deflate output indicators to purge the impact of inflation by using a general deflator this practice fails to account for sector heterogeneity and can be hazardous although the general identified patterns are largely correct the calculated magnitudes can be misleading or even wrongly signed instead it is strongly recommended that sector heterogeneity is accounted for by using individual sector price indices for all relevant sectors instead of one general gdp deflator this paper analyzes this advanced decomposition using chinese data and compares to the usual method of using only one deflator it is found that while most differences are only of quantitative quality some show even a qualitative difference furthermore the rising energy intensity in the early 2000s which has been discussed by previous studies vanishes completely

energy embodied in the international trade of china an energy input output analysis abstract growing international trade has not only positively affected the people s republic of china s china s economic development but also expanded the exportation of energy embodied in goods during their production this energy flow out will pose risks to china s rational utilization of natural resources as well as environmental protection in this paper we evaluate the energy embodied in goods produced in china during 1992 2005 and use input output structural decomposition analysis to identify five key factors causing the changes of energy embodied in exports direct primary energy efficiency primary energy consumption structure structure of intermediate inputs structure of exports and scale of exports for the three sub periods of 1992 1997 1997 2002 and 2002 2005 results show that china is a net exporter of energy and the energy embodied in exports tends to increase over time the expanding total volume of exports and increasing exports of energy intensive goods tend to enlarge the energy embodied in exports within all three sub periods but these driving forces were offset by a considerable improvement of energy efficiency and changes in primary energy consumption structure from 1992 to 2002 and the effects of structure of intermediate input only in the sub period from 1992 to 1997 from 2002 to 2005 the sharp augmentation of energy embodied in exports was driven by all the five factors our research has practical implications for the chinese economy results of this study suggest that the energy embodied in trade should receive special attentions in energy policies design to limit the energy resource out flow and pollution generation

measuring energy efficiency in the context of an emerging economy the case of indian manufacturing in recent years the indian economy has achieved a rapid growth rate however one of the challenges facing the economy is the large energy supply that would be needed to sustain this growth path hence attaining energy efficiency is crucial for the economy this paper examines the indian manufacturing sector and utilizes a variant of the directional distance function to obtain comprehensive measures of performance of the major manufacturing states given the joint goals of achieving energy conservation and output growth the results of the empirical application reveal that given the prevailing technology the average manufacturing firm across the states could reduce energy input and increase output simultaneously by an annual average of 3 84 by improving technical efficiency to accommodate a larger simultaneous increase in output and reduction in energy use india should adopt superior technologies so as to shift the efficient frontier outward

timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long run price shifts with timber these long run price shifts may be accompanied by a short run price drop due to salvage hurricane hugo damaged 20 of southern pine timber in the south carolina coastal plain in 1989 to estimate the short and long run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of south carolina sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices with prices of similar products from other regions modeling revealed a 30 negative price spike due to salvage and a long run enhancement effect leading to prices that are 10 to 30 higher than they would have been had hugo not occurred

why did the energy intensity fall in china s industrial sector in the 1990s the relative importance of structural change and intensity change there have been a variety of studies investigating the relative importance of structural change and real intensity change to the change in china s energy consumption in the 1980s however no detailed analysis to date has been done to examine whether or not the increased energy efficiency trend in the 1980s still prevailed in the 1990s this article has filled this gap by investigating the change in energy consumption in china s industrial sector in the 1990s based on the data sets of value added and end use energy consumption for the 29 industrial subsectors and using the newly proposed decomposition method of giving no residual our results clearly show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline in industrial energy use in the 1990s was the decline in real energy intensity indicating that the trend of real energy intensity declines in the 1980s at the 2 digit level was still maintained in the 1990s this conclusion still holds even if we lower the growth rate dramatically in line with the belief that the growth rate of china s gdp may be overestimated

index decomposition analysis applied to co2 emission studies index decomposition analysis ida was first extended from energy consumption to energy related co2 emission studies in 1991 since then many studies have been reported covering various countries and emission sectors however unlike the case of energy consumption studies a comprehensive literature survey that focuses specifically on emission studies has so far not been reported in this paper we attempt to fill this gap by reviewing 80 papers appearing in peer reviewed journals from 1991 to 2012 in this application area the first part of this paper deals with the developments with regard to the ida approaches used by researchers and the scope and focus of their studies in the second part the empirical results reported in the surveyed studies are analyzed consolidated and presented by emission sector the objective is to reveal the relative contributions of key effects on changes in the aggregate carbon intensity and this is done by emission sector and by country the findings of both parts are useful in understanding the development of ida in the application area of emission study as well as the key drivers of aggregate carbon intensities in the past and their possible future developments

what drives the change in china s energy intensity combining decomposition analysis and econometric analysis at the provincial level abstract we employ decomposition analysis and econometric analysis to investigate the driving forces behind china s changing energy intensity using a provincial level panel data set for the period from 1995 to 2009 the decomposition analysis indicates that a all of the provinces except for a few experienced efficiency improvement while around three fourths of the provinces economics became more energy intensive or remained unchanged b consequently the efficiency improvement accounts for more than 90 of china s energy intensity change as opposed to the economic structural change the econometric analysis shows that the rising income plays a significant role in the reduction of energy intensity while the effect of energy price is relatively limited the result may reflect the urgency of deregulating the price and establishing a market oriented pricing system in china s energy sector the implementation of the energy intensity reduction policies in the eleventh five year plan fyp has helped reverse the increasing trend of energy intensity since 2002 although the chinese government intended to change the industry led economic growth pattern it seems that most of the policy effects flow through the efficiency improvement as opposed to the economic structure adjustment more fundamental changes to the economic structure are needed to achieve more sustainable progress in energy intensity reduction

manufacturing energy use in oecd countries decomposition of long term trends abstract in this paper we examine manufacturing energy use in 13 oecd countries over the period 1971 1995 we describe changes in aggregate energy intensity using the adaptive weighting divisia decomposition method we contrast the development in the periods after the oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979 with the period of relatively stable energy prices after the oil price crash of 1986 the results show that manufacturing output grew in most countries pushing up energy use the share of electricity increased in almost every sector while there was a clear trend away from oil and coal towards natural gas changes in the structure of output drove up energy use between 1973 and 1994 in some countries and down in others changes in energy intensities had a profound and downward effect on manufacturing energy use in all countries however contrasting the period after oil prices fell in 1986 with earlier years we see that for most countries the rate of energy intensity decline slowed slightly but did not reverse with falling prices in a few countries efficiency improvements continued to have a strong effect this suggests that even without higher prices improvements of energy efficiency seems to take place

the lmdi approach to decomposition analysis a practical guide in a recent study ang energy policy 32 2004 compared various index decomposition analysis methods and concluded that the logarithmic mean divisia index method is the preferred method since the literature on the method tends to be either too technical or specific for most potential users this paper provides a practical guide that includes the general formulation process summary tables for easy reference and examples

embedding the drivers of emission efficiency at regional level analyses of namea data abstract this paper provides new empirical evidence on regional national disparities in environmental efficiency based on analyses of namea data referring to italy and the lazio region where rome is the main city shift share analyses provide evidence on the drivers of environmental efficiency and on sector specificity our evidence shows that although the region around rome has achieved higher environmental performance compared to italy mainly thank to its being less industry based some critical points in the energy sector and in some services should be taken into account in shaping the future development of the region in addition the use of regional namea for econometric investigations of emission efficiency drivers at national level shows that though north south disparities favour northern and richer regions in accordance with development oriented dynamics environmental hot spots driven by specialisation and efficiency related issues also appear in some northern industrial regions further the role of public ad private r d is of main relevance in enhancing emission on economic value ratios environmental industrial and sector oriented policy making may derive valuable information from the evidence provided by our study that highlights how analytical exploitation of namea offers rich array of insights for regional policy making

reaping the carbon rent abatement and overallocation profits in the european cement industry insights from an lmdi decomposition analysis we analyse variations of carbon emissions in the european cement industry from 1990 to 2012 at the european level eu 27 and at the national level for six major producers germany france spain the united kingdom italy and poland we apply a log mean divisia index lmdi method cross referencing data from three databases the getting the numbers right gnr database developed by the cement sustainability initiative the european union transaction log eutl and the eurostat international trade database our decomposition method allows seven channels of emission change to be distinguished activity clinker trade clinker share alternative fuels thermal and electrical energy efficiency and electricity decarbonisation we find that apart from a slow trend of emission reductions coming from technological improvements first from a decrease in the clinker share then from an increase in alternative fuels most of the emission change can be attributed to the activity effect using counterfactual scenarios we estimate that the introduction of the eu ets brought small but positive technological abatement 2 2 1 3 between 2005 and 2012 moreover we find that the european cement industry has gained 3 5 billion euros of overallocation profits mostly due to the slowdown of production

estimating gamma for tail hedge discount rates when project returns are cointegrated with gdp martin weitzman has suggested a method for calculating social discount rates for long term investments when project returns are covariant with consumption or other macroeconomic variables so calle

structural change and energy efficiency in industry the change in the ratio of energy consumed to industrial production is examined over the years 1968 1980 changes in the composition of industry are analysed creating a better picture of movements in physical efficiency of energy use the medium term trends show the significance of the 1973 oil crisis the effects being contrary to those of intuition the implications of the two recessions for efficiency and industrial structure are described in detail the role of demand often relegated to an incidental consideration is brought to the fore in the years following 1973 it appears more important than ex post substitution in production and with this comes a particular implication for the use of aggregate production functions

structural change and technology choice energy use in mexican manufacturing industry 1970 1981 abstract this paper analyses industrial energy use in a country that has experienced falling instead of rising energy prices mexico subsidizes domestic energy consumption with the avowed purpose of stimulating industrialization methods are developed to distinguish the effects of technology choice from the effects of changing industrial structure and are then used to analyse the increased energy intensity of manufacturing industry 1970 1981 the increase is found to depend entirely on the adoption of more energy using technology whereas the changes in output structure have had little or no effect there has been a slight bias in favour of the less energy intensive sectors

measuring energy rebound effect in the chinese economy an economic accounting approach estimating the magnitude of china s economy wide rebound effect has attracted much attention in recent years most existing studies measure the rebound effect through the additional energy consumption from technological progress however in general technological progress is not equivalent to energy efficiency improvement consequently their estimation may be misleading to overcome the limitation this paper develops an alternative approach for estimating energy rebound effect based on the proposed approach china s economy wide energy rebound effect is revisited the empirical result shows that during the period 1981 2011 the rebound effects in china are between 30 and 40 with an average value of 34 3

what is the role of openness for china s aggregate industrial so2 emission a structural analysis based on the divisia decomposition method abstract having observed the weaknesses in previous structural analyses on the role of environmental kuznets curve ekc the author proposes a detailed analysis using a rich data set of provincial level production and so2 emission intensity of 13 industrial sectors the latter represent more than 98 of the total industrial production in each chinese province for the period 1991 2001 through the use of the log mean divisia index decomposition method the variations in province level industrial so2 emissions with regard to the 1990 baseline level are decomposed into the contribution from three components scale composition and technical effects the following analysis seeks to explain how trade openness affects aggregate industrial so2 emission through its impact on the structural determinants for these three components of region specific environmental variations

does energy efficiency promote economic growth evidence from a multicountry and multisectoral panel dataset abstract we examine the causal relationship between energy efficiency and economic growth based on panel data for 56 high and middle income economies from 1978 to 2012 using a panel vector autoregression approach we find evidence of a long run granger causality from economic growth to lower energy intensity for all economies we also find evidence of long run bidirectional causality between lower energy intensity and higher economic growth for middle income economies this finding suggests that beyond climate benefits middle income economies may also earn an extra growth dividend from energy efficiency measures

swedish co2 emissions 1993 2006 an application of decomposition analysis and some methodological insights this study undertakes a decomposition analysis to identify the drivers of carbon dioxide emissions change in the swedish business and industry sectors 1993 2006 on aggregate energy intensity decreased but this does not seem to have been very important for reducing emissions rather fuel substitution seems to have been more important which is in line with findings from the decomposition literature on sweden however at the sectoral level we find no clear pattern of the effect of fuel substitution and energy intensity on emissions we also draw some methodological conclusions decomposition analysis should be undertaken at the most disaggregate level possible assessing decomposition results by summing results over several time periods leads to biased results and decomposition analysis should not be based only on some initial and final years of a long time period furthermore we address the problem of double counting energy flows in decomposition analysis of aggregate effects when the energy sector is included and point out potential problems related to output measured in monetary terms

modeling of industrial energy consumption an introduction and context industrial energy accounts for roughly one third of total global energy consumption and is expected to continue to use a similar share in the foreseeable future however this is one of the hardest end uses to analyze model and forecast the reasons for modeling industrial energy consumption are as varied as the ways in which energy is used in production processes this has led to the application of a broad set of emperical tools from several different disciplines in this article we provide an introduction and context for a compendium or survey of the methods used in this area this special issue of energy economics is designed to provide both newcomers and accomplished researchers with an overview of the current state of development in the are of industrial energy modeling

measuring structural change and energy use decomposition of the us economy from 1997 to 2002 abstract the steadily increasing focus on energy production and consumption has led to growing research attention to patterns of energy use within economies of particular interest has been comparing the driving forces of increasing efficiency and economic structural change input output analysis ioa and decomposition analysis have become critical tools for performing such analyses this study analyzes aggregate energy use in the united states in 1997 and 2002 to discover the causes of changing energy usage and flows results show that rising population and household consumption acted to drive up energy demand but this driving force was offset by considerable structural change within the economy particularly related to a quickly increasing trade deficit in manufacturing goods thus while total energy intensity the ratio of energy use to economic output declined by approximately 12 between 1997 and 2002 changes in the structure of the economy explain this drop more than increased energy efficiency the level of aggregation at which decomposition analyses are run was identified as a crucially sensitive parameter for the determination of structural change and future studies should specifically address the amount of detail necessary to adequately measure changes in economic structure

a simple competitive model with production and storage we study a rational expectations partial equilibrium model of a market for a single storable commodity whose output each period is a function of previous period effort on production and a realization of a shock that affects equally all producers i he final demand is non random and depends only on each period s price risk neutral producers make production and storage decisions based on forecasts of future price distributions existence of equilibrium is proved and for the case of i i d shocks several comparative statics results are established as well as the existence and stability of a unique stationary distribution and whose output at each period is a multiplicative function of previous period s planting and of the realization of a shock that affects equally all producers the final demand for this good is non random and depends only on this period s price this describes approximately markets for agricultural products which are not traded internationally and where most of the price uncertainty stems from supply shocks risk neutral producers make their decisions based on forecasts of future price distributions and of known cost functions of storage and production to maximize their discounted profits in order to close the model an assumption on how such price forecasts are made is needed we assume that agents make equilibrium forecasts i e that their forecast is common and that when producers act taking the forecasted prices as given they make decisions that yield the forecasted prices as equilibrium prices this is of course what has been sometimes called rational expectations the assumption of equilibrium expectations and the presence of risk neutral pro ducers will imply that the equilibrium variables may be obtained by considering a related market surplus maximization problem 1 this places strong restriction on the stochastic process of equilibrium prices for the case where the basic shocks are assumed to be independently and identically distributed over time one may thus show that equilibrium prices are a function of a certain state variable the total stocks kept from last period plus this period s output and this allows us to derive properties of equilibrium solutions our main results concerning this case are a storage is a non increasing function of price and expected production a non decreasing one b the elasticity of expected future prices with respect to today s prices is positive and less than one c this elasticity is non constant being zero for high enough prices d the price process follows a renewal process if prices are low

factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry energy intensity versus product mix understanding the mechanisms of change of energy consumption in industry has attracted much attention since the 1973 world oil crisis a popular line of research has been to decompose changes in the aggregate energy intensity of industry to give the relative impacts arising from energy intensity change and product mix change using a decomposition technique many empirical studies covering a large number of countries have been reported the main objective of this paper is to put together the empirical results reported in these studies in a coherent framework and identify possible systematic features of particular interest are the basic trends in this line of research the relative importance of energy intensity change and product mix change possible variations over time and between country groups in the energy impacts of these changes and inconsistencies in findings among studies an overview of the decomposition technique including its strengths weaknesses and role in industrial energy consumption studies is also presented

the valuation of forestry resources under stochastic prices and inventories a contingent claims approach to capital budgeting may be preferable to traditional methods where uncertainty and managers strategic reactions to changing conditions are impor tant as an example of such a case we solve the classical problem of the duration of an investment in forestry resources i e when to cut down the trees in the general case of stochastic output prices and stochastic natural growth rate and timber inventories a con tingent claims approach is used to value the forestry resources as a function of 1 sto chastic prices and inventories and 2 an asymmetric optimal production policy that incorporates the option to halt timber production temporarily i introduction classical capital budgeting techniques are based on the assumption that fu ture cash flows follow a rigid pattern and can be accurately predicted far into the future on the basis of such cash flow predictions the project is either accepted or rejected the uncertainty in the project and management s strategic reactions to changing conditions are dealt with only superficially at best a risk adjusted interest rate is employed and various deterministic scenarios are plotted out in situations where uncertainty and management s strategic reactions to it are im portant the classical technique is apt to lead to wrong decisions the technology needed to deal with such problems more accurately is becoming available the purpose of this paper is to present a stylized example of how it can be used our example is a general solution to the classical duration problem of the optimal control of a long term renewable resource investment such as forestry resources i e when to chop down a tree 1 if the prices and the natural growth rate of the inventory of forest timber are assumed to be deterministic the optimal control is very simple to derive but when both the price and inventory of timber are stochastic the problem becomes both stochastic and asymmetric the asym

residential energy consumption in urban china a decomposition analysis abstract residential energy consumption rec is the second largest energy use category 10 in china and urban residents account for 63 of the rec understanding the underlying drivers of variations of urban rec thus helps to identify challenges and opportunities and provide advices for future policy measures this paper applies the lmdi method to a decomposition of china s urban rec during the period of 1998 2007 at disaggregated product activity level using data collected from a wide range of sources our results have shown an extensive structure change towards a more energy intensive household consumption structure as well as an intensive structure change towards high quality and cleaner energy such as electricity oil and natural gas which reflects a changing lifestyle and consumption mode in pursuit of a higher level of comfort convenience and environmental protection we have also found that china s price reforms in the energy sector have contributed to a reduction of rec while scale factors including increased urban population and income levels have played a key role in the rapid growth of rec we suggest that further deregulation in energy prices and regulatory as well as voluntary energy efficiency and conservation policies in the residential sector should be promoted

attribution of changes in divisia real energy intensity index an extension to index decomposition analysis abstract in this paper we extend the methodology of index decomposition analysis ida in energy studies by quantifying the contribution of individual attributes to the percent change of factors such as the real energy intensity index and structural change index we apply the proposed method to the real energy intensity index in the multiplicative logarithmic mean divisia index m lmdi approach a major ida technique since the m lmdi is based on geometric mean type indices and chain computation we need some appropriate method to cope with the difficulties that arise we present a numerical illustration of the proposed method using the energy consumption and real value added data of the us manufacturing industry and compare the results obtained by the fisher real energy intensity index

decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions growth in the united states the role of research and development abstract the united states has achieved economic growth compatible with carbon reduction since 2007 this work is addressed to understand the eight effects especially effects related to research development rd whereas economic scale was the primary inhibitor to the drop of carbon emission followed by investment intensity population size and sectoral energy structure the results of decoupling efforts analysis uncover that energy intensity r d intensity r d efficiency and sectoral carbon intensity contributed to decoupling economic growth from carbon emission whereas investment intensity population size and sectoral energy structure did not contribute to the decoupling finally some policy implications are proposed

energy conservation and co2 emission reduction in china s 11th five year plan a performance evaluation in the 11th five year plan fyp 2005 2010 the chinese government initiated a series of energy saving and emission reduction policies in many key fields in response to environmental pollution and climate change this paper quantitatively evaluates the performance of energy conservation and co2 emission reduction in this period the impact of these policies and potentials by integrating the contributions of energy conversion efficiency and energy utilization efficiency improvement industrial restructuring fuel mix shift and renewable energy development in a unified framework as a first attempt to introduce energy conversion efficiency improvement into a decomposition approach comprehensive and specific policies are summarized as a policy list to be investigated the results show that energy intensity and conversion efficiency effects were mainly responsible for driving down energy consumption by 637 4 mtce and 85 4 mtce respectively and they reduced co2 emissions by 1345 3 mt and 243 8 mt respectively due to a significant improvement in the 11th fyp period most of the contributions made by the conversion efficiency effect 94 come from thermal power generation and the emission coefficient effect reduced co2 emissions by 17 4 mt through developing renewable energy economic growth is still the biggest driver of energy consumption and increasing emissions while industrial restructuring and fuel mix shift effects contributed relatively little developing renewable energy and promoting economic restructuring to limit the increase of energy intensive sectors are still the main challenges and the next policy focus to achieve the targets for energy saving and carbon emission reduction in the 12th five year plan

economic reform energy and development the case of mexican manufacturing abstract given increasing concern over global climate change and national security there is a burgeoning interest in examining the relationship between economic growth and energy use in developed and developing countries more specifically decoupling energy use per unit of gross domestic product gdp has fast come to be seen as in the interests of national economies and the world as a whole recent attention has been paid to the dramatic decreases in the energy intensity of the chinese economy which fell by 55 between 1975 and 1995 do other developing economies follow similar trajectories this paper examines the energy intensity of the mexican economy for the period 1988 1998 although the long term trend in mexican energy intensity is rising the energy intensity of the mexican economy began to decline in 1988 this paper explores the factors that have contributed to this reduction diminishing mexican energy use per unit of gdp has been driven by significant decreases in industrial energy intensity we show that these changes have resulted from changes in the composition of mexican industrial structure and technological change

informational efficiency of markets for stumpage comment in a study of the information efficiency of markets for stumpage in the southern united states washburn and binkley found that time series data on stumpage price if given on annual or quarterly bases reveal weak form information efficiency for stumpage markets from this they conclude that there can be no gain from using past price movements to play the market in timing timber harvests p 403 specifically they infer that the reservation price rules derived for optimal forest harvesting by norstrom lohmander and brazee and mendelsohn are not applicable to the management of southern pine timberlands

review on integrated strategies for energy policy planning and evaluation of ghg mitigation alternatives abstract this review paper is devoted to elaborating the status of different energy policy planning studies and the evaluation of various ghg mitigation studies it includes some of the major developments in global energy scenario status of green house gas ghg emissions issues in the implementation of kyoto protocol and ghg mitigation clean development mechanism cdm and energy scenario especially pertaining to the residential industrial and commercial energy sector in the initial sections the later part of this paper highlights the salient contributions in various literatures pertaining to energy demand forecasting in residential commercial and industrial sector ghg estimation methodologies and ghg mitigation studies in various sectors the success and difficulties in implementing various policy planning practices were also discussed in the paper most of the prominent literature in the area of energy demand and consumption analysis towards effective implementation of ghg mitigation is described in the end a comprehensive comments and recommendations based on the study were furnished

structural change and convergence of energy intensity across oecd countries 1970 2005 abstract this paper uses new and unique data derived from a consistent framework of national accounts to compute and evaluate energy intensity developments across 18 oecd countries and 50 sectors over the period 1970 2005 we find that across countries energy intensity levels tend to decrease in most manufacturing sectors in the service sector energy intensity decreases at a relatively slow rate with diverse trends across sub sectors a decomposition analysis reveals that changes in the sectoral composition of the economy explain a considerable and increasing part of aggregate energy intensity dynamics a convergence analysis reveals that only after 1995 cross country variation in aggregate energy intensity levels clearly tends to decrease driven by a strong and robust trend break in manufacturing and enhanced convergence in services moreover we find evidence for the hypothesis that across sectors lagging countries are catching up with leading countries with rates of convergence that are on average higher in services than in manufacturing aggregate convergence patterns are almost exclusively caused by convergence of within sector energy intensity levels and not by convergence of the sectoral composition of economies

analysis and decomposition of energy consumption in the chilean industry abstract with rising energy costs and climate change concerns energy efficiency will be important in maintaining competitiveness and reducing the environmental impact of industrial activities in this paper we study the chilean industrial sector which is the largest consumer of energy within the country energy demand and co 2 emissions in chile have grown rapidly in recent years while energy supply is mostly imported and subject to disruption therefore it is important to understand energy consumption in this sector and determine which sub sectors have the greatest potential to reduce energy consumption we used the index decomposition analysis ida applying the logarithmic mean divisia index method i lmdi i to quantify the impact of diverse driving factors on energy consumption furthermore a panel data analysis was used to determine whether there are differences in energy intensity across firms with different characteristics our results show that energy intensity has risen over time although energy consumption remains stable this fact supports the idea that energy efficiency policies could play an important role for the industrial sector additionally energy consumption and energy intensity follow different patterns in each sub sector therefore we conclude that the application of differentiated sectoral policies is preferable over a single global policy

energy intensity and firm growth abstract using micro level data we attempt to identify the causal relationship between improvement decline in energy intensity and firm growth in six countries namely france germany japan korea the u k and the u s and 21 manufacturing industries during the period 1991 to 2005 we run a panel regression of firm growth using the inverse of a country and industry specific relative energy intensity rei measure with the corresponding industrial sector in the reference case the u s industry in addition to the inverse of the traditional energy intensity measure ei after controlling several firm industry and country variables we find that ei and rei may have somewhat different impacts on firm growth in terms of profits and capital accumulation when we control the heterogeneity in industrial dependence on energy firm profits in the industry club with lower rei grow faster than the six country average compared to the six country case we find that the efficient use of energy inputs has made a smaller contribution to firm growth in korea

structural change and energy use the case of the manufacturing sector in taiwan abstract this paper examines the role of sectoral shift and improvements in energy intensity of individual industries in aggregate manufacturing sector energy intensity changes in taiwan during 1971 1985 the divisia index approach is employed to decompose sectoral shift and energy intensity effects a major finding of this analysis is that changes in energy intensities of individual industries were the main influence in changes in aggregate manufacturing sector fuel and electricity intensities during the period sectoral shifts were found to contribute very little to the energy intensity changes

why cooperate public goods economic power and the montreal protocol this paper develops a correlated probit model to describe dichotomous choices that may contain a public goods component or some other forms of interdependency the key contribution of the paper is to formulate tests for interdependent behavior among agents in particular we examine the decisions by nations whether or not to ratify the montreal protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer specifically we reject free riding as a motive for not ratifying the protocol and we find little evidence that individual nations were influenced by the behavior of their largest trading partners hence the data suggest that with respect to the montreal protocol most nations acted without regard for the actions of other nations

energy decomposition analysis iea model versus other methods abstract in energy decomposition analysis the international energy agency iea model which is based on the laspeyres index method is included in a recent international collaborative initiative on energy indicators for sustainable development for possible adoption iaea 2005 energy indicators for sustainable development guidelines and methodology international atomic energy agency vienna www pub iaea org mtcd publications pdf pub1222 web pdf from an empirical analysis using the data of the united states we found that the residual term given by the iea model could be significant and that the estimates of the impacts of structure and intensity changes given by the model could be quite different from those given by other decomposition methods the residual term tends to be large when changes in structure and or energy intensity variables are significant since changes in these variables over time are generally larger in the developing countries than in the iea countries there is the question about whether the iea model is an appropriate decomposition method for the developing countries

disaggregated analysis of us energy consumption in the 1990s evidence of the effects of the internet and rapid economic growth abstract this paper decomposes us energy use from 1988 to 1998 and attributes the changes in energy use to three underlying factors activity structure and intensity for this study we use a bottom up methodology by separately decomposing delivered energy use in six sectors travel freight manufacturing industries non manufacturing industries residential and services the most commonly used indicator of energy efficiency in the total economy the ratio of energy consumed to unit of gdp e gdp created can often be misleading the rapid decline in the e gdp ratio in recent years has been used to support assertions that the internet and information technologies in general have enabled improvements in energy efficiencies however our disaggregate analysis suggests that energy intensities on average are falling more slowly than ever before while actual energy use increased faster than at any time since 1970 the decline in the e gdp ratio in the mid to late 1990s owes much more to structural changes in the demand for energy services than to falling energy intensities

industry energy use and structural change a case study of the people s republic of china abstract this paper examines the effects of structural change and improvements in energy intensities of individual industries in aggregate industry energy intensity changes in china during 1980 88 the divisia index is used to decompose the energy intensity effect and structural effect a major finding of this analysis is that the main contribution to changed aggregate energy intensity was from the changes in energy intensities of individual industries during the period structural effects were found to contribute little to the aggregate energy intensity changes

the dynamic behavior of efficient timber prices a simple theoreticalmodel of a tim consist ing of faustmann rotations evalubermarket finds that there exists a rational expecta ated at the mean of the price process tions equilibrium in which prices evolve according the central question addressed in this to a stationary a r 1 process simulations analyz e study is what is the appropriate model of a model with a more general representation of tim timber prices this is an important quesber stock dynamics implications for the optimal tion given the prescriptive nature of the harvesting literature are 1 market efficiency pro timber harvesting literature3 vides little justification for random walk prices 2 and evidence unit root tests used in previous studies to analyz e that the form of the price process strongly the informational efficiency of timber markets do influences the performance of a reservanot distinguish between efficient and inefficient tion price rule relative to the faustmann markets and 3 failure to recognize asymmetric rotation haight and holmes 1991 plandisturbances in time series analyses of historical tinga 1998 nonetheless most authors aptimber prices can lead to sub optimal harvesting pear to select the form of the price process rules

energy use in a transitional economy the case of poland abstract this paper provides a sectoral analysis of how energy use has changed in poland since the 1970s with particular emphasis on changes since the country began its transition from a centrally planned to a market economy in 1990 total final energy use in 1991 was 25 below that in 1988 and the lowest since the mid 1970s the most important factors behind the large decline in polish energy use in 1990 were a sharp fall in industrial output and a huge drop in residential coal use driven by higher prices energy use declined by only 2 in 1991 which was less than the fall in gdp of 8 key factors that lessened the decrease in energy use after 1989 were a rise in energy intensity in many heavy industries and a shift toward greater use of cars and trucks in passenger and freight transport higher energy prices have had an evident impact on residential coal use but in industry there was relatively little sign of energy conservation in 1991

manufacturing energy use in eight oecd countries decomposing the impacts of changes in output industry structure and energy intensity this paper examines trends in manufacturing energy use in eight oecd countries decomposing the changes that occured between 1973 and 1987 into the effects of changes in aggregate manufacturing activity industry structure and energy intensities measured at the industry group level while manufacturing production grew in every country except the uk the rate of growth was variable from nation to nation structural change led to modest reductions in energy use in most countries although in norway structural change led to substantial growth in energy use the reduction in energy intensities was strikingly uniform across all nations ranging from 20 norway to 36 japan over the period of the analysis while other studies have used divisia decomposition techniques we use an alternative method based on laspeyres indices a comparison of the two techniques shows that they yield closely similar empirical results although the laspeyres approach is more easily interpreted while the interactions between changes in structure and intensity are arbitrarily assigned to the two factors by the divisia approach the lapeyres method yields interaction terms that explicitly account for such effects

on solving the multirotational timber harvesting problem with stochastic prices a linear complementarity formulation this article develops a two factor real options model of the harvesting decision over infinite rotations assuming a known stochastic price process and using a rigorous hamilton jacobi bellman methodology the harvesting problem is formulated as a linear complementarity problem that is solved numerically using a fully implicit finite difference method this approach is contrasted with the markov decision process models commonly used in the literature the model is used to estimate the value of a representative stand in ontario s boreal forest both when there is complete flexibility regarding harvesting time and when regulations dictate the harvesting date

informational efficiency of markets for stumpage reply we appreciate the opportunity to reply to hultkrantz s comment on our analysis of the informational efficiency of markets for pine sawtimber stumpage in the u s south washburn and binkley the efficiency or inefficiency of stumpage markets does indeed have important implications for forest management decisions and we are pleased by hultkrantz s interest in the subject his comment makes many valid points and furthers the debate on stumpage market efficiency there are however some issues raised by hultkrantz that require discussion clarification or correction our reply proceeds in five stages first we clarify the meaning of stumpage market efficiency and illustrate its consequences for the time series behavior of stumpage prices and for the profitability of priceresponsive timber harvesting strategies second we argue that the price elasticity of aggregate timber supply has little relevance to the question of stumpage market efficiency third we show that hultkrantz s analysis of the stationarity of southern pine stumpage prices and our analysis of the serial relationship between departures from equilibrium rates of stumpage price change are simply alternative means of testing the hypothesis that stumpage markets are weak form efficient fourth we argue that hultkrantz s results are largely consistent with those presented in washburn and binkley finally we interpret the results of tests of stumpage market efficiency to date and suggest a path forward