determinants of import demand for non renewable energy petroleum products empirical evidence from nigeria abstract this study estimated determinants of import demand for refined petroleum products in nigeria for the period 1984 2013 it employed the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds test cointegration method and analysed both long run and short run determinants of import demand for total and specific petroleum products in the long run aggregate and sectoral incomes are significant determinants of import of refined kerosene further real effective exchange rate reer aggregate income gdp manufacturing sector s income domestic energy production dep and population growth rate pgr are drivers of import of refined motor spirit moreover reer dep and manufacturing sector s income are propellers of import of refined distillate fuel also reer and total output of petroleum products are major drivers of total import of refined petroleum products short run results show that previous period gdp pgr and manufacturing and service sectors incomes are determinants of import demand for refined kerosene moreover reer gdp previous pgr and manufacturing sector s income exert significant effects on the import of refined motor spirit further significant effects of reer dep previous pgr domestic output of the product and manufacturing and service sectors incomes on the import demand for distillate fuel were found policy implications of the foregoing are articulated in the paper

the demand for gasoline abstract sufficient time must be allowed to elapse to assess fully the response of gasoline demand to price changes hitherto empirical work on the subject has generally not examined the period beyond 1975 moreover the extant time series studies concentrate almost exclusively on the usa this study extends both the observation period and the country coverage a vehicle stock adjustment model is estimated via its reduced form without explicit consideration of the vehicle stock itself however the estimation procedure incorporates the structure by way of constraints on the parameters cross section analysis offers additional evidence concerning the truly long run price elasticity the results suggest that there is no need to resort to elaborate models to explain adequately gasoline demand gasoline demand exhibits a long run price elasticity near unity with time lags exceeding six years while there is tentative evidence that the duration of these lags is not fixed

ethanol demand under the flex fuel technology regime in brazil abstract this paper analyzes the characteristics of ethanol demand in the context of fuel mix diversification in brazil currently ethanol is the most important gasoline additive and alternative fuel consumed in brazil and is responsible there for profound changes in the dynamics of fuel consumption the diffusion of flex fuel vehicles in brazil symbolizes a new stage of ethanol expansion and is a central component of the increasing demand for fuel accordingly we evaluate ethanol demand in brazil following the introduction of flex fuel vehicles using a cointegration approach and autoregressive distributed lag bounds tests over the period 2003 2010 the evidences confirm that during the last decade ethanol has strengthened its position as both an independent fuel and a substitute for gasoline there is also evidence that growth in the brazilian automobile fleet based on flex fuel technology is a major driving factor of long run ethanol demand further the dynamics of gasohol mandatory blend of gasoline and ethanol and ethanol prices operate in a symmetric manner over ethanol demand thereby evidencing the increasing substitutability between these alternative fuels

estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of china s road transport sector national social science foundation of china 12zd059 ministry of education 10gbj013 national natural science foundation of china 71203186 fundamental research funds for the central universities 2010221051 national science foundation for disting

an estimation of crude oil import demand in turkey evidence from time varying parameters approach abstract the aim of this study is to model crude oil import demand and estimate the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil in turkey based on a time varying parameters tvp approach with the aim of obtaining accurate and more robust estimates of price and income elasticities this study employs annual time series data of domestic oil consumption real gdp and oil price for the period 1966 2012 the empirical results indicate that both the income and price elasticities are in line with the theoretical expectations however the income elasticity is statistically significant while the price elasticity is statistically insignificant the relatively high value of income elasticity 1 182 from this study suggests that crude oil import in turkey is more responsive to changes in income level this result indicates that imported crude oil is a normal good and rising income levels will foster higher consumption of oil based equipments vehicles and services by economic agents the estimated income elasticity of 1 182 suggests that imported crude oil consumption grows at a higher rate than income this in turn reduces oil intensity over time therefore crude oil import during the estimation period is substantially driven by income

demand for gasoline in kuwait an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract this paper estimates the demand for gasoline in kuwait for the period 1970 1989 using a cointegration and error correction model ecm it is found that gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run and while it is elastic in the long run gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run this suggests that gasoline demand response to income changes is higher in the long run than in the short run furthermore gasoline consumption adjusts towards its long run level with about 52 of the adjustment occurring in the first year

a cointegration analysis of gasoline demand in the united states time series estimation of gasoline demand elasticities often does not take into account the possibility of nonstationarity in the underlying data which may render the parameter estimates spurious studies have shown that the time trending variables used to explain gasoline demand could be difference stationary and therefore may require cointegration analysis to assess the relationship among the trending variables in this work we use the cointegration technique to derive long run and short run demand elasticities of noncommercial gasoline consumption using time series data for the usa from 1949 to 2004 we also attempt to incorporate the presence of a structural break in the data generation process of the time trending variables our results show that the consumption of gasoline and lifetime income have a long term stable relationship after the second oil shock of 1978 prior to the first oil shock of 1973 no such long run relationship could be established through cointegration

the effectiveness of gasoline taxation to manage air pollution abstract higher gasoline taxes can be justified because cars cause significant local regional and global air pollution damages this study examines whether charging higher taxes would result in significant emission reductions both experimental survey data and actual behavior in southern california and connecticut are evaluated to explore whether people would change their driving behavior in response to higher gasoline prices both sets of results reveal that drivers are price inelastic in the short run 0 4 to 0 6 and long run 0 5 to 0 7 imposing environmental surcharges on gasoline will result in only a small reduction in driving and thus only a small improvement in the environment such taxes will place a heavy and clear burden on drivers however making gasoline taxes extremely unpopular finally the study finds that the income elasticity of gasoline is low 0 1 0 2 so that the gas tax will fall heavily on the poor

dynamic supply response and welfare effects of technological change on perennial crops the case of cocoa in malaysia modern biotechnology will generate crops with higher yields and enhanced resistance to pests and diseases in the case of perennial crops the age composition of the present stand the farmers willingness to invest and the yield profiles of old and new trees determine the speed of adoption of the new technology and the timing of the effects on supply and demand conditions we adapt conventional welfare measures to account for these factors in the assessment of research induced supply shifts the application to cocoa in malaysia shows that consumers and adopting producers gain and non adopters lose overall 72 of the welfare gains go to the consumers copyright 2001 oxford university press

lowering consumer search costs can lead to higher prices we demonstrate that regulations that lower consumer search costs and make them less heterogeneous across consumers can lead to higher prices charged by firms we estimate the distribution of consumer search costs for 366 isolated retail gasoline markets and find that reducing the mean and standard deviation by 20 and 48 respectively leads to price increases in 32 of markets and an average price increase of 5 2 cents per gallon across all markets thus price transparency regulation that results in higher prices may not stem from collusion but from an equilibrium with less consumer search

influencing factors on electricity demand in chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry a quantile perspective abstract chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry is one of the largest electricity consumer in china and has a large impact on overall electricity consumption in china this paper examines the impact of economic variables on the demand for electricity in chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry where economic growth sectoral value added per worker sectoral r d intensity and energy price were utilized to analyze sectoral electricity consumption with an application of quantile model the paper s estimates unveiled the varying effects of economic variables across the spectrum of sectoral electricity consumption where the coefficient of economic growth was positive and significant across all quantiles while sectoral value added per worker had both positive and negative significant coefficients an increase in income level and sectoral value added per worker will increase the electricity consumed by the industry however the latter will also enhance a decreasing trend in few regions across china and did not influence high energy efficiency but rather enhanced the production of additional outputs while sectoral r d intensity and energy price will ensure a substantial decrease in sectoral electricity consumption with the latter having a greater impact increase in investment for sectoral r d intensity will boost technological advancement and is recommended as a cornerstone to ensuring decline in sectoral energy consumption that will buttress sectoral value added per worker coupled with a robust energy price

gasoline demand revisited an international meta analysis of elasticities meta analysis is used to determine if there are factors that systematically affect price and income elasticity estimates in studies of gasoline demand four econometric models are estimated using long run and short run price and income elasticity estimates from previous studies as the dependent variables explanatory variables include functional form lag structure time span national setting estimation technique and other features of the model structure elasticity estimates are found to be sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of some measure of vehicle ownership static models appear to overestimate short run elasticities underestimate long run price elasticities but pick up the full long run income responsiveness there is variation in the elasticity of demand across countries especially in the short run and gasoline demand appears to be getting more price elastic and less income elastic over time

capacity and lead time management when demand for service is seasonal and lead time sensitive in today s competitive business environment quick service with minimal waiting time is an important factor for customers when choosing a service many service organizations guarantee a uniform lead time to all customers in order to gain competitive advantages in the market in selecting a lead time to quote the firm has to take into consideration not only how customers will react to the delivery time guarantee but also whether it has adequate capacity to fulfill the commitment a short lead time can bring both benefits and costs it can increase customer demand but might require a higher capacity level we present a mathematical model and a solution method for determining the optimal quoted lead time and capacity level for a profit maximizing firm with time varying and lead time sensitive demand the firm incurs convex capacity costs and pays lateness penalties whenever the actual lead time exceeds the quoted lead time a few studies have been conducted on the relationship between uniform lead time capacity demand and overall profitability however none of them takes the time variation of demand into account our work differs from previous research in that we explicitly model such a demand pattern

a co integration analysis of the price and income elasticities of energy demand in turkish agriculture abstract agriculture has an important role in every country s development particularly the contribution of agriculture to development and competitiveness is increasing with agricultural productivity growth productivity in turn is closely associated with direct and indirect use of energy as an input therefore the importance of energy in agriculture cannot be denied as one of the basic inputs to the economic growth process following the importance of energy in turkish agriculture this study aims to estimate the long and short run relationship of energy consumption agricultural gdp and energy prices via co integration and error correction ecm analysis annual data from 1970 to 2008 for diesel and electricity consumptions are utilized to estimate long run and short run elasticities according to ecm analysis for the diesel demand model the long run income and price elasticities were calculated as 1 47 and 0 38 respectively for the electricity demand model income and price elasticities were calculated at 0 19 and 0 72 respectively in the long run briefly in turkey support for energy use in agriculture should be continued in order to ensure sustainability in agriculture increase competitiveness in international markets and balance farmers income

an estimation of u s gasoline demand a smooth time varying cointegration approach abstract in this paper the u s gasoline demand from 1976 to 2008 is estimated using a time varying cointegrating regression we find that price elasticity increased rapidly during the late 1970s and then decreased until 1987 after a relatively small scaled increase decrease cycle from 1987 to 2000 the price elasticity rose again after 2000 the time varying change of the elasticities may be explained by the proportion of gasoline consumption to income and fluctuation of the degree of necessity the result of the error correction model shows that a deviation from a long run equilibrium is corrected quickly and the welfare analysis illustrates there may be a gain by shifting the tax scheme from income tax to gasoline tax

time varying volatility spillover between chinese fuel oil and stock index futures markets based on a dcc garch model with a semi nonparametric approach abstract this paper reveals some new evidence on the volatility spillover between fuel oil and stock index futures markets in china by considering its time variant feature time varying effect is specified by the legendre polynomials in a dcc garch model moreover the semi nonparametric snp approach accounting for marginal excess kurtosis and asymmetry is applied we find different time evolving patterns of volatility spillover across multiple periods due to the structural breaks the direction of mean volatility spillover is found to be bilateral moreover the strength of mean volatility spillover shows that the effect from stock index to fuel oil futures is much stronger than the other way around this implies that the stock index futures market plays a leading role in information processing these findings have important implications for the fuel oil stakeholders as well as risk management

modeling energy demand some emerging issues abstract the proliferation of papers on energy demand modeling has offered different dimensions both in terms of methodology and estimation while this development has strengthened our understanding of the subject it may render the identification of gaps in the literature arduous for future research thus this study sets out to document some emerging issues that seem to have engendered new directions on energy demand modeling ranging from asymmetric price responses time varying demand parameters triangulation analyses to seasonal and climate change effects it is hoped that access to this review complemented with the previous ones will facilitate the comprehension of the extant literature as well as areas of future research in energy demand modeling

competition and outsourcing with scale economies scale economies are commonplace in operations yet because of analytical challenges relatively little is known about how firms should compete in their presence this paper presents a model of competition between two firms that face scale economies i e each firm s cost per unit of demand is decreasing in demand a general framework is used which incorporates competition between two service providers with price and time sensitive demand a queuing game and competition between two retailers with fixed ordering costs and pricesensitive consumers an economic order quantity game reasonably general conditions are provided under which there exists at most one equilibrium with both firms participating in the market we demonstrate in the context of the queuing game that the lower cost firm in equilibrium may have a higher market share and a higher price an enviable situation we also allow each firm to outsource their production process to a supplier even if the supplier s technology is no better than the firms technology and the supplier is required to establish dedicated capacity so the supplier s scale can be no greater than either firm s scale we show that the firms strictly prefer to outsource we conclude that scale economies provide a strong motivation for outsourcing that has not previously been identified in the literature

a case study of cocoa replanting and new planting in bahia brazil 1966 1985 abstract this paper is a case study of the investment planting decisions in the bahia cocoa sector in the period 1966 1985 with a special focus on the role of producer prices and investment subsidies the study deals separately with replanting decisions and new planting decisions using aggregate time series data and exploits several concepts of vintage production models the results of the analysis show that the dynamic response of replanting and new planting to changes in profitability and to interest subsidies is significantly different and that the latter played a very important role in the successful rejuvenation of the cocoa sector over this period

incentive effects favor nonconsolidating queues in a service system the principal agent perspective in this paper we study a service network in which an agency is responsible for satisfying a constraint on the expected waiting and service time experienced by customers however the agency does not render the actual service instead it serves to coordinate independently operated facilities the coordinating agency must devise a strategy for allocating compensation and customers to the self interested operators in order to minimize its own costs for a network of two facilities we model the facilities self interested capacity decisions as the solution to a game using this analytical framework we compare two types of customer allocation one from a common queue and one from separate queues our analysis shows that it can be in the best interest of the coordinating agency to adopt a separate queue allocation scheme instead of one based on a common queue although doing so sacrifices risk pooling benefits these can be more than offset by the stronger incentives that are created for the independent facilities

the economics of quality this paper develops a model of quality determination where the usual competitive equilibrium conditions hold the explicit form of quality considered is the wait required to obtain the product the analysis however is much more general being valid for products that have a characteristic z such that 1 demand is a function of price and a measure defined on z 2 costs are a function of output and the measure on z and 3 z is a function of output and capacity expected profit maximizing firms in equilibrium look like monopolistic competitors once constant quality is imposed however the perfect competitive results obtain

exact consumer s surplus and deadweight loss consumer s surplus is a widely used tool in applied welfare economics both economic theorists and cost benefit analysis often use consumer s surplus despite its somewhat dubious reputation the basic idea is to evaluate the value to a consumer or his willingness to pay for a change in price of a good from say pricep to pricep because price changes affect consumer welfare an evaluation of this effect is often a key input to public policy decisions yet consumer s surplus is probably the most controversial of widely used economic concepts both paul samuelson and ian little conclude that the economics profession would be better off without it it is my feeling of the situation that substantial agreement exists on the correct quantities to be measured the amount the consumer would pay or would need to be paid to be just as well off after the price change as he was before the price change the quantities correspond to john hicks compensating variation measures an alternative measure which takes ex post price change utility as the basis of comparison is hicks equivalent variation the controversy arises in the measurement of these quantities the usual measurement procedure is to use the area to the left of the marshallian market demand curve between two price levels jules dupuit originated this measure of welfare change and alfred marshall and hicks derived appropriate conditions for its use the primary condition for the area to the left of the demand curve to correspond to the compensating variation is to have constant marginal utility of income marshall gave this condition and if it holds the same quantity will be derived as the area to the left of the compensated hicksian demand curve this area to the left of the compensated demand curve is exactly what the compensating variation and equivalent variation measure thus the constant marginal utility of income is a sufficient condition for marshallian consumer s surplus to be equal to hicks consumer s surplus in this case arnold harberger s plea to use the welfare triangle as one half times the product of the price change times the quantity change to measure deadweight loss corresponds to the correct theoretical amount of welfare change in a recent paper robert willig derives bounds for the percentage difference between the correct measure of either the compensating or equivalent variation and the marshallian measure derived form the market demand curve his bounds which depend on the income elasticity of demand for the single good in the region of price change being considered as well as the proportion of the consumer s income spent on the good demonstrate that the marshallian consumer s surplus is often a good approximation to hicks consumer s surplus the fact that the proportion of the consumer s income spent matters as well as the income elasticity was first pointed out by harold hotelling willig contends that the approximation error will be less than the errors involved in estimating the demand curve thus he hopes to remove the need for apology that applied economists often need to give to theorists who remark on the inappropriateness of using marshallian consumer s surplus to measure welfare change however in this paper i show that for the case primarily considered by willig of a single price change which is also the situation in which consumer s surplus is often used in applied work no approximation is necessary professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research associate national bureau of economic research i would like to thank peter diamond erwin diewert daniel mcfadden robert merton robert solow hal varian joel yellin and the referees for help and comments research support from the national science foundation is acknowledged the reason that we still have two rather than one of samuelson s six measures of consumer s surplus arises from an index number problem of the correct basis for the welfare comparison i will give both measures but plan to concentrate on the compensating variation

the effects of uncertainty and adjustment costs on investment in the almond industry a neoclassical model of investment behavior is developed wherein firms are assumed to maximize the expected present value of net revenue under leontief technology prices and yields are assumed to be stochastic this framework yields investment as a function of the expected present value of the output from one unit of capital and the variance of the expected value this theory is applied to investment in the almond industry the model outperforms both a model without uncertainty and one with neither uncertainty nor adjustment costs using in sample and out of sample tests copyright 1989 by mit press

time varying income and price elasticities for energy demand evidence from a middle income panel abstract we estimate time varying income and price elasticities for energy demand for a 26 country middle income balanced panel that spans 1996 2014 to do so we employ a recently developed local linear dummy estimation method to estimate the trend and coefficient functions we find that the price elasticity for energy demand is either insignificant or positive and small while the income elasticity for energy demand behaves in a non linear fashion over time it is always less than unity and is generally within 0 6 0 8 a gdp elasticity of less than one suggests that these middle income countries are on the right hand side of an inverted u energy intensity gdp path that is consistent with the dematerialization process also this finding suggests that energy intensity but not energy consumption in these countries will fall with economic growth hence intensity based targets may be met in a business as usual setting but aggregate or per capita based carbon emissions targets would likely require policy interventions

an empirical analysis of economic performance under the marketing order for raisins this study utilizes a dynamic econometric model of the california raisin industry to compare predictions of prices production profits and related measures under the volume control program with predictions under several no control scenarios the outcomes are evaluated in relation to performance criteria proposed by a usda study team the twenty two year comparisons suggest that the public interest may have been well served by the raisin volume control program or at worst there was no significant welfare loss

household adjustment to gasoline price change an analysis using 9 years of us survey data this paper examines the dynamics and composition of household adjustment to changes in the real price of gasoline using a panel of us households by decomposing the demand for gasoline into the demand for vehicle miles traveled and the demand for household composite miles per gallon we are able to add rich detail to the description of how households respond to gasoline price changes while obtaining total price elasticity estimates well within the range found in the literature we find that consumers initially respond to a price rise with a much larger decrease in consumption than would be indicated by the total elasticity in addition households respond to price changes by adjusting vehicle miles traveled more than composite miles per gallon in the year after a price change

testing and estimating time varying elasticities of swiss gasoline demand this paper is intended to test and estimate time varying elasticities for gasoline demand in switzerland for this purpose a smooth time varying cointegrating parameters model is investigated in order to describe smooth mutations of the swiss gasoline demand the methodology based on chebyshev polynomials is rigorously outlined our empirical finding states that the time invariance assumption does not hold for long run price and income elasticities furthermore they highlight that gasoline demand passed through some periods of sensitivity and non sensitivity with respect to the price our empirical statements are of great importance to assess the performance of a gasoline tax as an instrument for co2 reduction policy indeed such an instrument can contribute to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases only if the demand is not fully inelastic with respect to the price our results suggest that such a carbon tax would not be always suitable since the price elasticity is found not stable over time and not always significant

equilibrium analysis of disaggregate facility choice systems subject to congestion elastic demand this paper considers the impact of congestion on the spatial distribution of customer utilization of service facilities in a stochastic dynamic environment previous research has assumed that the rate of demand for service is independent of the attributes of the facilities we consider the more general case in which facility utilization is determined both by individual facility choice based on the stochastic disaggregate choice mechanism and by the rate of demand for service we develop generalized results for proving that equilibria exist and describe sufficient conditions for the uniqueness and global stability of these equilibria these conditions depend upon the elasticity of demand with respect to the level of congestion at the facilities and on whether customers are congestion averse or are congestion loving finally we examine special cases when these conditions are satisfied

the role of inventory in delivery time competition the paper operationalizes the notion of shortage cost by considering the behavior of customers and competing firms and examines the role of inventory in response time competition we start with a single firm production control model in which customers are characterized by their preferences of price quality and delivery time the optimal production inventory policy and the optimal choice between make to order and make to stock operations are determined in simple newsboy like formulas the basic model is then extended to an n firm market game in which firms compete for orders from the aspect of early delivery one could think of this setting as an oligopoly racing market the analysis shows that competition can breed a demand for produce to stock just as other economic phenomena such as economies of scale uncertainty or seasonality can induce make to stock and that delivery time competition increases the buyer s welfare while decreasing the producer s welfare

pricing production scheduling and delivery time competition this paper studies competition between firms that produce goods or services for customers sensitive to delay time firms compete by setting prices and production rates for each type of customer and by choosing scheduling policies the existence of a competitive equilibrium is proved the competitive equilibrium is well defined whether or not a firm can differentiate between customers based upon physical characteristics because each customer has incentive to truthfully reveal its delay cost further insights are derived in two special cases a unique equilibrium exists for each of the cases in the first case firms are differentiated by cost mean processing time and processing time variability but customers are homogeneous the conclusions include that a faster lower variability and lower cost firm always has a larger market share higher capacity utilization and higher profits however this firm may have higher prices and faster delivery time or lower prices and longer delivery time in the second

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

property rights production technology and deforestation cocoa in cameroon in this article we use a vintage capital model with risk of eviction to assess cocoa farmers response to changes in their tenure security and to the introduction of a new faster maturing cocoa variety the model is calibrated with data from cameroon in calendar year 2000 and then used to simulate the effects of institutional and technical change on farmer welfare and deforestation rates our findings can be summarized in three points first improved tenure security over cocoa fields increases farmers consumption and welfare but at the expense of more deforestation second the introduction of new cocoa varieties with faster maturity and higher input response also unambiguously raises farmers consumption and welfare doing so increases deforestation under insecure land tenure but slows down deforestation under secure land tenure third when introducing the two innovations together more security and also new varieties there is both an increase in welfare and a decline in deforestation in sum the availability of new cocoa cultivars calls for stronger tenure security to accommodate investment in the new technology without increasing deforestation

optimal service speeds in a competitive environment this is a study of the economic behavior of vendors of service in competition a simple model with two competing exponential servers and poisson arrivals is considered each server is free to choose his own service rate at a cost per time unit that is strictly convex and increasing there is a fixed reward to a server for each customer that he serves the model is designed to study one specific aspect of competition namely competition in speed of service as a means for capturing a larger market share in order to maximize long run expected profit per time unit a two person strategic game is formulated and its solutions are characterized depending on the revenue per customer served and on the cost of maintaining service rates the following three situations may arise i a unique symmetric strategic nash equilibrium in which expected waiting time is infinite ii a unique symmetric strategic equilibrium in which expected waiting time is finite and iii several nonsymmetric strategic equilibria with infinite expected waiting time an explicit expression for the market share of each server as a function of the service rates of the two servers is also given

price and lead time decisions in dual channel supply chains abstract manufacturers today are increasingly adopting a dual channel to sell their products i e the traditional retail channel and an online direct channel empirical studies have shown that service quality we focus on the delivery lead time of the direct channel even goes beyond product price as one of the major factors influencing consumer acceptance of the direct channel delivery lead time has significant effects on demand profit and pricing strategy however there is scant literature addressing the decision on the promised delivery lead time of a direct channel and its impact on the manufacturer s and retailer s pricing decisions to fill this gap we examine the optimal decisions of delivery lead time and prices in a centralized and a decentralized dual channel supply chain using the two stage optimization technique and stackelberg game and analyze the impacts of delivery lead time and customer acceptance of a direct channel on the manufacturer s and retailer s pricing behaviours we analytically show that delivery lead time strongly influences the manufacturer s and the retailer s pricing strategies and profits our numerical studies reveal that the difference between the demand transfer ratios in the two channels with respect to delivery lead time and direct sale price customer acceptance of the direct channel and product type have great effects on the lead time and pricing decisions

tax avoidance and the deadweight loss of the income tax traditional analyses of the income tax greatly underestimate deadweight losses by ignoring its effect on forms of compensation and patterns of consumption the full deadweight loss is easily calculated using the compensated elasticity of taxable income to changes in tax rates because leisure excludable income and deductible consumption are a hicksian composite good microeconomic estimates imply a deadweight loss of as much as 30 of revenue or more than ten times harberger s classic 1964 estimate the relative deadweight loss caused by increasing existing tax rates is substantially greater and may exceed 2 per 1 of revenue

oil prices and stock markets does the effect of uncertainty change over time abstract this paper investigates empirical marginal effects of uncertainty measured by conditional variance of the stock and crude oil prices on their returns using stock index prices for u s japan korea and hong kong over the period 1996 2015 a time varying parameter model with a dynamic conditional correlation dcc bivariate garch in mean specification is considered to investigate time varying marginal effects of uncertainty on the stock and crude oil returns the empirical findings show that there exist significant negative time varying effects of uncertainty on the returns over some sub periods

reduction potential of co2 emissions in china s transport industry newhuadu business school research fund china sustainable energy program g 1311 19436 ministry of education 10 jbg 013 national social science foundation of china 71203186

nonparametric estimation of exact consumers surplus and deadweight loss we apply nonparametric regression models to estimation of demand curves of the type most often used in applied research from the demand curve estimators we derive estimates of exact consumers surplus and deadweight loss which are the most widely used welfare and economic efficiency measures in areas of economics such as public finance we also develop tests of the symmetry and downward sloping properties of compensated demand we work out asymptotic normal sampling theory for kernel and series nonparametric estimators as well as for the parametric case the paper includes an application to gasoline demand empirical questions of interest here are the shape of the demand curve and the average magnitude of welfare loss from a tax on gasoline in this application we compare parametric and nonparametric estimates of the demand curve calculate exact and approximate measures of consumers surplus and deadweight loss and give standard error estimates we also analyze the sensitivity of the welfare measures to components of nonparametric regression estimators such as the number of terms in a series approximation

oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down an extension of hamilton s results in an important paper hamilton 1983 demonstrated a strong correlation between oil price changes and gross national product growth in u s data however his study pertained to a period in which all the large oil price movements were upward and thus it left unanswered the question whether the correlation persists in periods of price decline moreover the price variable he used was somewhat distorted by price controls in the 1970s this note investigates whether hamilton s results continue to hold when the sample is extended to include the recent oil market collapse and the oil price variable is corrected for the effects of price controls particular attention is given to the possibility of asymmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases as suggested in the structural employment literature loungani 1986 davis 1987 hamilton 1988 like hamilton i based my investigation on the gnp equation in sims s 1 980b six variable quarterly vector autoregressive model