political freedom and the response to economic incentives labor migration in africa 1972 1987 abstract policy reforms in developing countries often address in isolation either an economic or a political problem this study examines the interaction between political institutions and responses of labor migration to economic incentives migration data from thirty two african countries were used to quantify the statistical relationships between political institutions and labor migration out of agriculture regression results indicate that the presence of political freedoms and civil liberties increases the responsiveness of labor migration to economic incentives

religion corruption and the rule of law in a 207 country sample we find that rule of law and corruption are both associated with a country s religious heritage thereby partially explaining the correlation between religion and economic growth found in previous research we also show that our results change when we control for some variables lacking data for all countries in the sample but that these differences are attributable to changes in sample composition rather than the effects of the control variables our research suggests that researchers doing cross country analysis should distinguish between the effects of adding a control variable and the resulting sample composition effects

institutions and the environmental kuznets curve for deforestation a crosscountry analysis for latin america africa and asia abstract the relationship between deforestation and income across 66 countries of latin america africa and asia is examined institutional characteristics as well as macroeconomic policies of each country are hypothesized to impact deforestation results show strong evidence of an environmental kuznets curve ekc relationship between income and deforestation for all three continents institutional structure and macroeconomic policy significantly affect the tropical deforestation process improvements in political institutions and governance significantly reduce deforestation the factors leading to deforestation differ across regions however and there is no one size fits all global policy recommendation for restraining the tropical deforestation process

economic growth and institutions some sensitivity analyses 1961 2000 do institutions help explain macroeconomic performance this article addresses two issues first especially given the practical implications of the literature measurement of institutions should avoid tautologies and therefore this study uses econometrics to estimate the effect of objectively measurable institutions such as labor market organization financial development fiscal federalism and political regime type second the growing literature on these promising factors in turn is unfortunately incommensurable because previous studies fail to control for other institutional and in some cases standard economic variables given data on up to ninety four countries from 1961 through 2000 extreme bound analysis eba an econometric technique that addresses the sensitivity of previous findings to alternative assumptions about model specification suggests that some institutions associated with the organization of labor and capital are robust correlates of investment few data support the view that variables related to the organization of the state including fiscal federalism and political regime type affect macroeconomic performance without implication the author thanks richard nelson doug chalmers robert shapiro alessandra casella brendan o flaherty geoffrey garrett alexander hicks brett hammond mark kesselman the editor lisa martin and two anonymous referees for helpful comments also ross levine peter rousseau geoffrey garrett and torben iversen were very helpful in locating data the views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the board of governors of the federal reserve system or any member of its staff

democracy and economic growth a meta analysis despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the impact of political democracy on economic growth this article challenges the consensus of an inconclusive relationship through a quantitative assessment of the democracy growth literature it applies meta regression analysis to the population of 483 estimates derived from 84 studies on democracy and growth using traditional meta analysis estimators the bootstrap and fixed and random effects meta regression models it derives several robust conclusions taking all the available published evidence together it concludes that democracy does not have a direct impact on economic growth however democracy has robust significant and positive indirect effects through higher human capital lower inflation lower political instability and higher levels of economic freedom democracies may also be associated with larger governments and less free international trade there also appear to be country and region specific democracy growth effects overall democracy s net effect on the economy does not seem to be detrimental

the rule of law and economic growth where are we summary it is widely assumed that the rule of law is essential for economic growth however the rule of law is clearly a multidimensional concept encompassing a variety of discrete components from security of person and property rights to checks on government and control of corruption we review the theory underlying these different causal mechanisms linking the rule of law to economic growth and provide an introduction to some outstanding measurement issues we find that the correlation among different components of the rule of law concept are not tight among developing countries and that some inferences about the effects of property rights protection may not be warranted

one security many markets determining the contributions to price discovery when homogeneous or closely linked securities trade in multiple markets it is often of interest to determine where price discovery the incorporation of new information occurs this article suggests an econometric approach based on an implicit unobservable efficient price common to all markets the information share associated with a particular market is defined as the proportional contribution of that market s innovations to the innovation in the common efficient price applied to quotes for the thirty dow stocks the technique suggests that the preponderance of the price discovery takes place at the new york stock exchange nyse a median 92 7 percent information share although most of the classic paradigms in market microstructure concern a security that trades in a single centralized market such situations are becoming increasingly rare in practice fragmentation the dispersal of trading in a security to multiple sites has emerged as a dominant institutional trend this process is of concern to financial economists and regulators because price information and price discovery the impounding of new information into the security price arguably the most important products of a security market have many attributes of public goods as the process of fragmentation accelerates it may be important to determine where the price information and price discovery are being produced 1 this paper suggests a practical econometric approach to this problem the technique is illustrated with an application to u s equity markets many stocks listed on the new york stock exchange nyse trade concurrently on the regional exchanges and the national association of securities dealers national market system nasd nms since a share of ibm stock is the same security whether purchased on the midwest or pacific exchange this is a particularly clear instance of multiple markets nevertheless the expres

every minute counts in financial markets abstract this paper represents an introductory study of ultra high frequency minuute by minute data for forex spot rates bid ask reuters quotes on three days autumn 1987 the frequency of price revision size of spread and statistical characteristics are measured the series exhibit time varying leptokurtosis unit roots and first order negative correlation the latter especially in disturbed jumpy markets the effect of time aggregation on these characteristics is examined and variance ratios are analyzed multivariate analysis revealed significant relationships between lagged exchange rates both the own rate and the key deutsche mark us dollar rate and the current spot rate

an ordinal ranking of economic institutions abstractwe provide the first ranking of countries economic institutions using an ordinal methodology using the five areas of the fraser institute s economic freedom of the world efw index we find that final rankings of a country s institutions are sensitive to the importance ordering of area 1 size of government when areas 2 5 are in the most important position we find that there is no significant difference between the efw rankings and our rankings when area 1 is placed in the most important position however a number of european countries with large welfare states but good governance do poorly

the two freedoms economic growth and development an empirical study log linear methods are applied to categorical data containing economic freedom political freedom the level of income and the rate of economic growth for a panel of about 100 countries from 1975 to 1992 the main results are given economic freedom the rate of economic growth is independent of political freedom and the level of income given the level of income political freedom is independent of economic freedom and the growth rate the analysis suggests the fundamental effects of economic freedom in fostering economic growth and a high level of income as the condition of a high degree of political freedom

institutions and the convergence hypothesis the cross national evidence delong and others have shown that cross country convergence in per capita incomes is limited to samples of currently industrialized nations or universal literacy nations in particular income dispersion has failed to decline in groups of ex ante rich nations this study finds strong convergence in per capita incomes among nations with institutions namely secure property rights conducive to saving investing and producing incomes are shown to converge even within ex ante rich samples when measures of institutional quality are held constant

trading patterns and prices in the interbank foreign exchange market the behavior of quote arrivals and bid ask spreads is examined for continuously recorded deutsche mark dollar exchange rate data over time across locations and by market participants a pattern in the intraday spread and intensity of market activity over time is uncovered and related to theories of trading patterns models for the conditional mean and variance of returns and bid ask spreads indicate volatility clustering at high frequencies the proposition that trading intensity has an independent effect on returns volatility is rejected but holds for spread volatility conditional returns volatility is increasing in the size of the spread there is a growing body of theoretical studies on the pattern of trading activity in financial markets with implications for the time series behavior of transactions prices and intensity of trading the empirical literature addressing similar concerns using intraday market data appropriate for such tasks is sparse particularly in the area of the trading of currencies the purpose of this paper is to examine both international patterns of intraday trading activity and the time series properties of returns and bid ask spreads for the deutsche mark dollar exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market the goal is to provide information useful in the further development of market microstructure models of trading and to compare empirical findings against theoretical results already in existence the foreign exchange market is in operation twenty four hours a day seven

political instability and savings in less developed countries evidence from sub saharan africa a four equation model is used to investigate the effects of political instability pi on the savings rate in sub saharan africa utilising a comprehensive measure of pi we find that political instability has a deleterious effect on the savings rate both directly and indirectly through a reduction in investment and economic growth the negative effects of pi on savings rate occurs contemporaneously as well as with a lag we also find that economic growth has a stabilising effect on the political system and that not accounting for these effects through a simultaneous equations model results in biased coefficient estimates these relationships are robust with respect to model specification the implication of our results is that economic factors alone cannot explain the development process in less developed countries

does the type of political regime matter for trade and labor market policies this article uses cross country data to examine the link between a country s type of political regime and its degree of openness and labor market distortion the analysis indicates that more authoritarian regimes are associated with higher trade protection and greater labor market distortions this supports the view that political authoritarianism may be counterproductive to development in important respects

railway development from the japanese occupation period to the present using kaohsiung city as an example abstractthis study intended to discuss the interactive influence of the emergence transformation and decline of the railway in kaohsiung port on urban development the population the activities and the economy in the region during the period of 1895 2010 from the perspectives of urban planning railway development population and industry this study used the crossover analysis method and used the factors of railway development and urban planning within a fixed time period to explore the chain dependence relationship among the industry the population the regional economy and the railway stations in kaohsiung city this study found that urban planning economic development railway development and industry have an interactive influence on the overall urban development urban planning promotes the rapid growth of the population and economic development propels the growth and shaping of the regional economy thus increasing employment opportunities in addition the railway development process moves

the effects of property rights on economic performance this study augments the neoclassical growth model proposed by mankiw et al 1992 to analyse the effects of the property rights protection on the levels of economic performance measured by per capita gross domestic product gdp across countries the augmented model predicts that 1 the accumulation of physical and human capital and therefore the level of per capita gdp in a country is positively related with the degree of property rights protection as well as with the saving rates and 2 the effects of the saving rates on the level of per capita gdp in a country are positively related with the degree of property rights protection empirical evidence shows that the predictions of the augmented model are consistent with the variations in the levels of per capita gdp across countries

calibrating an algorithm for estimating transactions from fxfx exchange rate quotes abstract in this paper we investigate the efficiency of a class of transaction generating algorithms originally suggested in bollerslev and domowitz 1993 our comparison utilizes real transaction data recorded over reuters d2000 2 electronic broking system for 7 h in june 1993 and transaction data generated from fxfx quotations over an identical period results suggest that at this high frequency data sampling the performance of these transaction generating algorithms is poor with the most likely explanation of this outcome due to the high frequency characteristics of fxfx spreads and quotation intensity

round the clock market efficiency and home bias evidence from the international japanese government bonds futures markets abstract this paper examines how information is processed between almost identical international futures markets london liffe and tokyo tse jgb futures in these markets variations in open to open changes are virtually the same as those of close to close changes suggesting that information is transmitted efficiently across markets with small opening pricing errors the overall results confirm market efficiency around the clock yet the intraday u shaped patterns in volume volatility of the london jgb futures suggest home bias in international investments indicating a less global view of trading than expected specifically at the liffe open london investors rush to rebalance portfolios instead of doing so at the tse close which is only one hour before the liffe opens

freedom and international migration economic and political freedoms are regressed on a bilateral cross section of international migrant stocks using ordinary least squares and tobit techniques a positive relationship between these variables is found economic freedom is statistically significant even when controlling for income per capita and political freedom in addition the impact of these freedoms on migration flows into oecd countries between 2001 and 2006 using fixed effects estimations is analyzed the panel data analysis mostly corroborates the cross sectional analysis the notable exception is that political freedom appears to have had a negative impact on migration flows during this period

the adoption of new technology by the farmers in taiwan this study addresses the technologies the farmers adopted their reasons for adopting these technologies and the result of adopting these technologies the design and strategy used to collect the data needed are both qualitative and quantitative farmers who practised traditional farming methods and those who adopted the new technologies were both given survey questionnaires and were interviewed the result of the study shows that the technologies applied by the farmers are the use of tractors in tilling the ground the use of machinery in planting the practice of irrigation and the use of a combination of organic and commercial fertilizers the reasons for the adoption of the latter are the availability of chemicals and the convenience of their use and this is used to enhance the growth of plants the results of the new technology adoption are high yields of produce production of hybrid crops and the saving of labour thus increasing the income of the farmers

international structural adjustment and its sectoral and spatial impacts structural economic adjustment has relevance and significance in oecd countries among the countries in transition from socialism to capitalism and in the developing countries of asia africa and latin america its impacts are multi institutional being in firms government agencies non government organisations and households institutions are having to innovate to adapt and to reorganise to meet rapidly changing economic conditions in an increasingly competitive environment this article evaluates the structural adjustment process it will establish general principles for interpretation and for a newly emerging dominant political economy the new political economy npe in which adjustment is being articulated the npe is evolving being influenced by the post 1990 enhanced relevance of social and environmental issues adding to the neoliberalism characteristics of the early origins of the npe also the npe is being infused with intellectual institutionalism especially the new institutional econom

rent seeking bureaucracies and oversight in a simple growth model abstract following recent cross country empirical work research on public policy and growth has come to examine the impact of inefficient or corrupt bureaucracies most of this work has emphasized the interactions of bureaucracies with private markets by contrast this paper focuses on the relationship between rent seeking bureaucracies and their political authority we show that when oversight is relatively costly as in many developing economies the political authority exercises little monitoring of its agencies which reduces the effectiveness of productive government spending moreover when the technology used to provide public services is poor bureaus better succeed in requesting overly large budgets before triggering any monitoring both of these characteristics contribute to reducing the growth rate of already poor economies

the inefficiency of reuters foreign exchange quotes abstract reuters foreign exchange fxfx page is the world wide predominant information source to foreign exchange traders in this study we compare the indicative spot exchange rate quotes from reuters with their matching futures exchange rates from the chicago mercantile exchange we find that the indicative quotes on reuters fxfx page are inefficient and could be improved by incorporating information from the futures market this casts doubt on the way banks determine these quotes as well as on the informational content of these quotes as an indicator of the current exchange rate

news announcements and price discovery in foreign exchange spot and futures markets abstract this paper studies competition in price discovery between spot and futures rates for the eur usd and jpy usd markets around scheduled macroeconomic announcements using both the information shares approach and the common factor component weight approach for futures prices from the chicago mercantile exchange cme as well as deal prices from spot trading on the electronic broking services ebs we gauge how foreign exchange spot and futures markets respond to news surprises the results show that the spot rates provide more price discovery than do the cme futures rates overall however the contribution of the futures rates to price discovery increases in the time surrounding macroeconomic announcement releases

new evidence on the relationship between democracy and economic growth it is often maintained that democracy is a luxury which comes at a price in terms of subsequent slower increases in national living standards however various recent cross section studies on economic growth have found evidence that lack of civil and political liberties is negatively correlated with economic growth using a new measure of democracy which is based upon the number of years that a country can be regarded as a democracy the robustness of this relationship is examined both direct and indirect effects of lack of democratic liberties are analysed our main conclusion is that the relationship between democracy and economic growth is not rubust

economic freedom and the stability of stock prices a cross country analysis abstract this paper investigates the link between economic freedom and the price stability of individual securities in a unique setting using a sample of 327 american depositary receipts adrs we find an inverse relation between the economic freedom of a adrs home country and the price volatility of the adr this negative correlation is driven primarily by certain components of economic freedom such as property right protection the soundness of the money and the level of free trade in the home country further we find evidence that less regulation and less government control of markets in the home country leads to more stable adr prices

inward looking policies institutions autocrats and economic growth in latin america an empirical exploration this paper explores the institutionaldeterminants of economic growth in latinamerica by taking advantage of recentempirical research that employs subjectiveand objective measures to test for apossible northian explanation that linksinstitutional quality and economic growth we explore a simple framework that may helpbetter understand the policymakers choicesand persistence regarding inward lookingpolicies that were pursued between the1930s and the 1980s by arguing that in thelatin american case olson s 1982 idea ofencompassing interest should be expanded tocover not only the economic stakes of powerholders but in particular their psychicincome which includes their politicalstakes along the lines of recent work byrobinson 1997 coyne 2002 andothers

the new institutional economics and its applicability to development abstract the several remarkable developments in the social sciences which have come to be known as the new institutional economics nie have not yet been fully exploited for analyzing the determinants and effects of institutional change in the context of development this paper identifies two important components of the nie and illustrates both a potential complementarities between them and b their applicability to various problems and policies in the long term development of developing countries

political instability freedom and economic growth some further evidence over time the impact of both political and institutional factors on the rate of economic growth has received a lot of attention in the economic literature since adam smith if not before it has been observed that economic performance depends in part on political and institutional factors unfortunately attempts to discover how and under what conditions such factors impinge on economic performance often did not progress beyond anecdote 1 it is only recently that more systematic attempts were undertaken to analyze the importance of political and institutional factors in explaining cross country variances in economic growth for instance many researchers have examined whether the democratic character of national political procedures and institutions can help explain cross country differences in national development l sirowy and a inkeles reviewed 13 studies all of which attempted to evaluate the economic consequences of variation in the democratic character of national political regimes sirowy and inkeles conclude that the studies they considered present a very mixed and confusing picture with regard to the effect of democracy on economic growth 2 the relationship between civil and political liberty on the one hand and economic growth on the other has also been the subject of much discussion two conflicting hypotheses have been advanced concerning the connection between economic growth and political freedom some economists argue that freedom fosters economic performance and hence economic growth others pose that high growth rates require economic controls and reduced freedom four recent cross section studies on economic growth have found evidence that lack of civil and political liberties is negatively correlated with economic growth 3 all of these studies used r d gastil s measures of civil liberties or political rights 4 g w scully concludes that for the

the informal sector elephant abstract different analysts have used the term informal sector to mean different things a data set with 2 200 small enterprises chosen using random procedures in seven countries makes it possible to test the relationships between different measures the analysis finds only limited parallels between definitions based on size on registration on conformity to fiscal and other regulations and on degrees of modernization wide variations appear from one country to another the term may be appropriate for examination of individual countries especially if the analyst defines it precisely but its use in multicountry analysis is fraught with difficulties

tests of competing theories of consumer choice and the representative consumer hypothesis tests of competing theories of consumer choice and the representative consumer hypothesis in this paper the authors estimate demand functions for individual agents they test if commonly used functions are consisten t with the data and if parameters are the same across subjects the y examine decision rules based on random choice psychological and bi ological models of choice and utility functions commonly employed in the economics literature a generalized minimum needs hypothesis per forms well across experimental conditions and individual subjects st atistically significant differences in tastes across subjects were id entified in the data copyright 1987 by royal economic society

the size of the state economic growth and the efficient utilization of national resources the motives of the state in projecting a more than minimal presence in the economy may be conceived of as benevolent or malevolent whatever the characterization of the motivation increases in the size of the government share of the economy adversely affect economic growth and the allocation of resources nations with relatively large government shares in 1960 on the whole grew more slowly than nations with relatively small state sectors interperiod increases in the size of government were associated with lower growth rates over the period the size of the government share coefficients in the regressions were of sufficiently large magnitude to conclude that the rise in the size of the government has had a substantial depressing effect on economic growth these results are consistent with those reported by landau 1983 and marlow 1986 landau did not adjust economic growth for the growth in factor endowment consequently his results overstate the adverse effect of government size

the short run dynamics of the price adjustment to new information we examine how prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets adjust to the new information contained in scheduled macroeconomic news releases in the very short run using 10 second returns and tick by tick data we find that prices adjust in a series of numerous small but rapid price changes that begin within 10 seconds of the news release and are basically completed within 40 seconds of the release there is some evidence that prices overreact in the first 40 seconds but that this is corrected in the second or third minute after the release while volatility tends to be higher than normal just before the news release there is no evidence of information leakage in our analysis we correct for the biases created by bid ask spreads and tick by tick data

cultural and institutional determinants of economic growth a cross section analysis economic growth rates for the period 1968 1987 are analyzed for ninety countries culture political and economic arrangements and personal freedoms are statistically significant determinants of growth personal freedom is shown to be a normal good whose demand might be affected by cultural influences democracies raise personal freedoms ceteris paribus and consequently grow more quickly than non democratic regimes evidence is found for the convergence hypothesis other things equal lower income countries grow more rapidly than higher income countries

segmentation and time of day patterns in foreign exchange markets abstract this paper sheds light on a puzzling pattern in spot foreign exchange markets domestic currencies appreciate depreciate systematically during foreign domestic working hours this phenomenon spans many years and several exchange rates and overrides calendar effects we argue that it is mainly due to liquidity and inventory patterns that emerge from the combination of two factors domestic agents tend to be net buyers of foreign currency and to trade mostly in their country s working hours the prevalence of domestic foreign traders demanding the counterpart currency during domestic foreign working hours implies sell price buy price pressure on the domestic currency during domestic foreign working hours

can repressive regimes be moderated through foreign aid in what circumstances should foreign aid be given to less developed countries with repressive rulers repressive rulers are assumed to control the national income and to trade it against the probability of staying in office which is assumed in turn to depend positively on popular wealth and repression a foreign donor aware of this process of optimization will pursue his international objectives by attaching conditions to his aid that alter the relative price of repression and popular wealth in the calculations of the tyrant the effectiveness of direct and in kind aid and the desirability of a carrot an stick aid policy depend on the direct and the interactive effects that popular wealth repression and the parameters of economic growth exert on the regime s stability and its level of income

how markets process information news releases and volatility we examine the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets we find these announcements are responsible for most of the observed time of day and day of the week volatility patterns in these markets while the bulk of the price adjustment to a major announcement occurs within the first minute volatility remains substantially higher than normal for roughly fifteen minutes and slightly elevated for several hours nonetheless these subsequent price adjustments are basically independent of the first minute s return we identify those announcements with the greatest impact on these markets we examine the impact on interest rate and foreign exchange markets of scheduled macroeconomic news releases such as the employment report the consumer price index cpi and the producer price index ppi many market participants believe that such announcements have a major impact on financial markets indeed a small industry devoted to predicting the figures to be released in upcoming releases has evolved in recent years with the exception of the weekly money supply figures however the impact of such announcements on financial markets has received scant attention 1 this is doubly surprising given the considerable research interest in market volatility since these news releases are a potential source of much of this volatility consider for instance figure 1 as shown there prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets are much more volatile between 8 30 and 8 35 a m eastern time et than during any other five minute trading period including

rights equity and economic efficiency the adelman morris premise that economic development and equity are incompatible is not supported by the evidence of a strong relationship between equality of rights and the income distribution the premise that equity requires the denial of individual rights and the affirmation of state control is an oxymoron what has been overlooked in the literature on growth and equity is the effect of the rights structure on both economic efficiency and on the income distribution the evidence is that free societies have much larger shares of income going to the middle 60 percent of the distribution than is observed in societies where men are not free to choose in politically open societies compared to politically closed regimes the share of income to the middle three quintiles is q2 10 7 vs 8 0 q3 16 0 vs 11 5 and q4 22 9 vs 17 9 in the aggregate the shares to the middle quintiles are 49 6 vs 37 4 in nations that obey the rule of law compared to regimes in which the rights of the state relative to the individual are paramount the comparisons are q2 11 2 vs 7 4 q3 16 3 vs 10 6 q4 23 0 vs 17 3 summing the three quintiles yields a comparison of 50 5 vs 35 3 in countries that have private property market allocation of resources and minimum intervention by the state compared to command economies the shares of income to the middle quintiles are q2 10 8 vs 8 0 q3 16 0 vs 11 1 and q4 22 8 vs 17 7 aggregated the shares of the middle class in regimes with high levels of economic liberty are 49 6 vs 36 8 for regimes with restricted private economic rights

does the influence of institutional investors depend on the institutional framework an international analysis this article analyses the effect of institutional ownership in alleviating or exacerbating the conflicts of interests among stakeholders in different legal and institutional frameworks this analysis is carried out based on two characteristics the concentration of power of institutional ownership and the identification of the main types of institutional investors in common law countries consistent with the convergence and entrenchment hypotheses we find a u shape relation between ownership structure and firm performance in civil law countries consistent with the collusion and contest theories we find an inverted u shape relation we also find that when institutional investors are classified as pressure resistant and pressure sensitive according to the strength of their ties with managers pressure resistant investors who operate more independently are the most capable of improving the value of the firm

rule and policy spaces and economic progress lessons for third world countries despite greater rates of capital accumulation per capita growth rates among third world nations particularly africa are much lower than among the advanced capitalist nations in this paper i examine the critical roles of the rule space and policy on economic growth empirically nations with poor institutions and policies grow at about a fifth of the rate of nations with good institutions and policies

political regimes and economic growth arguments that relate regimes to growth focus on property rights pressures for immediate consumption and the autonomy of dictators while everyone seems to agree that secure property rights foster growth it is controversial whether democracies or dictatorships better secure these rights the main mechanism by which democracy is thought to hinder growth is pressure for immediate consumption which reduces investment only states that are institutionally insulated from such pressures can resist them and democratic states are not the main argument against dictatorships is that authoritarian rulers have no interest in maximizing total output these views are summarized in turn

arbitrage cointegration and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in financial markets we use a no arbitrage cost of carry asset pricing model to show that the existence of coin tegration between spot and forward futures prices depends on the time series properties of the cost of carry we argue that the conditions for cointegration are more likely to hold in currency markets than in commodity markets explaining many of the empirical results in the literature we also use this model to demonstrate why the forward rate forecast error the basis and the forward premium are serially correlated and to develop econometric tests ofthe unbiasedness hypothesis sometimes called the simple efficiency hypothesis in various financial markets the unbiasedness hypothesis is so prevalent in the finance liter ature that many tests for it have been developed we examine four of the common tests and and use our cointegration results to demonstrate why each of these tests should reject the null hypothesis of unbiasedness we find strong support for our hypothesis in the existing empirical literature

institutions investment and growth new cross country and panel data evidence this paper outlines the alternative channels through which institutions affect growth and studies the empirical relationship between institutions investment and growth the empirical results indicate that i free market institutions have a positive effect on growth ii economic freedom affects growth through both a direct effect on total factor productivity and an indirect effect on investment iii political and civil liberties may stimulate investment iv an important interaction exists between freedom and human capital investment v milton friedman s conjectures on the relation between political and economic freedom are correct vi promoting economic freedom is an effective policy toward facilitating growth and other types of freedom jel o17 o40 p51

economic freedom government policy and the trade off between equity and economic growth this study investigates the role that economicfreedom plays in economic growth and in the distribution in marketincome the role of government policy in advancingeconomic progress and in promoting income equality and the effectthat the rate of economic progress has on thedistribution of market income structural and reduced formmodels are estimated that reveal that economic freedompromotes both economic growth and equity and that there is apositive but relatively small trade off between growth andincome inequality

the political economy of public research investment and commodity policies in agriculture an empirical study the paper tests a political economy theory of simultaneous government decision making on income redistribution through commodity policies and on public research investment in agriculture we use data from 37 countries on agricultural protection and public agricultural research expenditures pari the empirical results are consistent with the political economy hypotheses the analysis suggest that structural changes in the economy have important effects on the political incentives for governments not only to subsidize or tax farmers but also to invest in public agricultural research furthermore the analysis supports the hypotheses that the impact of such structural changes on government decision making on pari is non linear and conditional on other factors regarding the impact of political institutions the results suggest that more democracy neither leads to more distortionary transfers agricultural protection nor to lower investment in public goods pari

seasonality in foreign exchange volatility the paper reports further empirical evidence on seasonality in foreign exchange volatility using high frequency data using a basis of the signal plus noise framework the approach decomposes tick by tick reuters fxfx quotes into a random walk and a stationary component termed the efficient price and the pricing error respectively the efficient price is not directly observable and is an approximation of the true value the pricing error captures the deviation between the observed indicative quote and the efficient price under the proposed model daily and intraday volatilities of the efficient price are estimated a pronounced pattern of volatility is uncovered and appears related to the daily activity cycle of major organized stock exchanges it is argued that seasonality in volatility is a symptom of foreign exchange markets results confirm andersen and bollerslev s findings that significant seasonal effects are one important determinant of overall volatility at high frequencies

institutional technology and economic growth an endogenous model of constitutional changes and economic growth links the temporal decline in private market returns when technology is constant with the returns to rule changes realized in a political market there is a steady state constitutional setting in which all rule changes have been incorporated that is analytically equivalent to the neoclassical steady state as in the neoclassical model private sector technological progress postpones the steady state to the extent the original constitutional setting promotes innovation the evolutionary process toward the steady state is delayed the model yields a theory of revolution based on forces leading to the adoption of inefficient changes in the constitutional setting

the institutional framework and economic development the compound growth rates of per capita output and farrell type efficiency measures for 115 market economies over the period 1960 80 were compared with measures of political civil and economic liberty it was found that the institutional framework has significant and large effects on the efficiency and growth rate of economies politically open societies which subscribe to the rule of law to private property and to the market allocation of resources grow at three times the rate and are two and one half times as efficient as societies in which these freedoms are abridged

human capital accumulation and the expansion of women s economic rights abstractbetween 1850 and 1920 most u s states enacted laws expanding the rights of married women to own and control their separate property and to own their market earnings the economic approach to property rights implies that as married women gain economic rights the incentive to invest in girls human capital will rise this prediction is tested by examining the impact of these legal changes on girls school attendance rates relative to boys state level census data are used to examine the effects of these changes on school attendance among all school aged children integrated public use microdata series data are used to examine their effect on school attendance among children ages 15 19 who are just beyond compulsory schooling ages consistent with hypothesized effects the empirical analysis shows that expanding women s economic rights resulted in higher relative rates of school attendance by girls and had the largest effect on the 15 19 age group

property rights vs redistribution which path to national wealth recent empirical and theoretical research suggests that egalitarian income distribution may spur economic growth another different strand of research suggests that property rights are important these two results are not at odds a model of switching between a career of rent seeking and wealth producing shows that for redistribution to boost national income property rights need to be secure a more equal distribution of earned income can induce rent seekers to switch to wealth making but only if they can be assured that their earned income will be protected from other rent seekers the model suggests new directions for empirical testing

price discovery in the foreign exchange market an empirical analysis of the yen dmark rate abstract using reuters exchange rate data we investigate the dynamic relations between the direct quotes of the yen dmark rate and the rate implied by yen dollar and dmark dollar rates since these high frequency data are observed at irregular intervals technical problems arise in calculating auto correlations and cross correlations we propose a covariance estimator for irregularly spaced data the empirical results show lagged adjustment of the direct yen dmark cross rate to changes in the dollar implied rate however since the dollar implied rate is extremely noisy substantial price discovery takes place through the direct yen dmark market especially during the most busy parts of the day

on the rationale of bank lending in pre crisis thailand evidence from credit files is provided to examine bank lending determinants of thai commercial banks their lending practice follows reasonable patterns as a standard set of variables including indirect risk variables explains much of the variance in interest rate spread reflecting institutional differences with mature markets we find a higher importance of relationship banking and risk control via credit availability information about later default reveals prudent relationship lending however banks could have made better use of available information about borrowers riskiness these findings do not support a general verdict of bad banking but indicate room to improve lending decisions

the effectiveness of position limits evidence from the foreign exchange futures markets abstract this study considers the effects of the relative size of hedger and speculator open interests and the potential impact of implementing position limits on the price discovery process in both jpy usd and eur usd futures markets hedging trading exerts a negative impact regardless of its size on price discovery in futures markets hedgers are less likely to be information motivated so their trading uniformly delays the price discovery process however there is a positive and nonlinear impact of speculators trade size on price discovery the contribution of which depends on the relative size of the speculative open interest contrary to conventional wisdom among regulators speculative trading does not harm the market in terms of market efficiency as long as the percentage of speculators open interest is below an endogenously determined threshold approximately 20 for eur usd and 16 3 for jpy usd speculative trading even improves futures market efficiency

governance structures and the durability of economic reforms evidence from inflation stabilizations abstract this paper investigates the relationship between a country s political economic and institutional environment and its ability to implement sustainable economic reform programs the policy issue on which the study focuses is inflation stabilization it consists principally of econometric estimations of the relationship between the success of stabilizations in a large sample of countries and several political and economic explanatory variables the hypotheses tested are drawn both from the recent macroeconomic literature on policy credibility and from political science the major findings include the following 1 a despite the conventional wisdom to the contrary political repression does not appear to be an effective means for implementing sustainable stabilization policies durable economic reforms and political freedoms appear to be complementary 2 b as has been previously argued theoretically and demonstrated empirically political instability is detrimental to policy reform 3 c the political will and popular consensus for stabilization policies are enhanced during a severe economic crisis 4 d there is weak evidence that intervention by the international monetary fund rather than supporting reform programs can undermine their credibility

political freedom economic freedom and income convergence do stages of economic development matter in the literature theory and empirical evidence on the nexus of political freedom economic freedom and economic growth are mixed in this paper we test the hypothesis that the effect of political freedom on promoting economic growth is realized and detectable at later stages of social and economic development using panel data for a sample of 104 countries between 1970 and 2003 we find strong support for our hypothesis while economic freedom has greater effects on income convergence in the oecd countries political freedom clearly promotes the convergence among those oecd countries

political sources of growth a critical note on measurement this note critically reviews the research on the link between political systems and economic growth empirical attempts to capture this patent relationship have been met with mixed success we conclude that the political variables used in these studies i e democracy and political instability do not adequately reflect the investors problem we suggest that a political variable that encompasses all kinds of potential discretionary state interventions would be more effective in explaining cross country differences in economic growth

choice under uncertainty problems solved and unsolved ffifteen years ago the theory of choice under uncertainty could be considered one of the success stories of economic analysis it rested on solid axiomatic foundations it had seen important breakthroughs in the analytics of risk risk aversion and their applications to economic issues and it stood ready to provide the theoretical underpinnings for the newly emerging information revolution in economics 1 today choice under uncertainty is a field in flux the standard theory is being challenged on several grounds from both within and outside economics the nature of these challenges and of our profession s responses to them is the topic of this paper

on democracy and debt as we explained there is really little a priori reasoning for a clear prediction that authoritarian regimes will incur more foreign debt in fact some other empirical literature reveals that such regimes will face a higher supply price for such debt anderson presents a study of a single year using an admittedly crude measure of authoritarianism that finds that such regimes do issue more debt

animals choices over uncertain outcomes further experimental results the betweenness axiom of expected utility theory which is not required under several nonexpected utility formulations is examined choices are checked for independence axiom violations in the allais direction and for fanning out in little explored areas of the unit probability triangle as predicted by machina s hypothesis ii the data show allais type violations of the independence axiom systematic failure of the fanning out hypothesis in the northwest portion of the unit probability triangle and consistent violations of the betweenness axiom in favor of folded orderings results are related to findings from human choice experiments exploring similar phenomena copyright 1991 by royal economic society

democracy and development a theoretical framework a simple framework is set up to discuss the relationship between democracy material welfare and development democracy is regarded both as a good in its own right and as an input in the production of material welfare the optimum level of democracy is then related to the level of development at the optimum point the marginal cost of democracy in terms of foregone output is positive and growth is a decreasing function of the level of democracy deviations from the optimum path are described as either repressive or populist democratization is not unambiguously an optimal response to exogenous shocks

political systems and distortions an empirical study this paper studies empirically why price distortions are more prevalent in some countries than in others we find no significant difference between democracies and dictatorships but frequent regime changes reduce distortions political systems factional subordinate that encourage redistributive activities rda tend to have more distortions allowing for different effects of rda in democracies and dictatorships there is a positive and significant effect of rda on distortions in dictatorships in democracies distortions destroying lobbying seems more important since no significant relation between rda and distortions can be found

politics and productivity i introduction economic studies of long run performance are focusing increasingly on political legal financial and social factors development is no longer regarded as a gradual inevitable transformation from self sufficiency to specialization and participation in the division of labor instead progress follows the creation and evolution of institutions that support social and commercial relationships the new institutional economics explains that growth requires that the potential hazards of trade shirking opportunism risk and so on be controlled by institutions like secure property rights reliable procedures for resolving disputes and means of enforcing contracts in the absence of close social ties these institutions reduce information costs encourage capital formation and capital mobility allow risks to be priced and shared and otherwise facilitate cooperation north and thomas 1973 north 1990 drobak and nye 1997 levine 1997 in particular political authorities must make credible commitments not to expropriate private resources once investments have been made 1 despite widespread agreement that institutions matter there is no consensus on how they should be incorporated into the analysis even the best empirical studies of productivity and growth treat institutional characteristics in an eclectic way barro s 1991 influential article for example uses the numbers of assassinations and revolutions per capita as proxies for political instability finding these measures negatively correlated with growth and investment scully 1988 regresses growth rates on dummy variables derived from gastil s 1982 ordinal rankings of political and economic liberty king and levine 1993a 1993b 1993c derive various measures of the quality of financial intermediaries and show that these measures are good predictors of growth this article presents a different approach to analyzing the relationship between institutions and aggregate economic performance following the modem productivity literature see for example fried et al 1993 we model economic performance with a stochastic production frontier frontier analysis is a form of benchmarking it analyzes a group of branches firms nations or other units by identifying best practices and evaluating each member s performance relative to the best practice frontier the results produce not only qualitative rankings of the group members but also numerical efficiency scores that can be used to assess the effects of various policies and characteristics for this reason frontier analysis is well suited for studying the effects of legal and political institutions on the economic performance of nations to capture institutional factors we use two comprehensive indexes of legal regulatory and political conditions working with a broad sample of countries from 1975 to 1990 we incorporate a widely used measure of economic freedom along with a new measure of policy stability to represent a country s institutional environment the new institutional economics suggests that countries with high levels of economic freedom protection of private property rights respect for the rule of law an unhampered price system and so on and policy stability commitment not to change the rules of the game ex post will be closer to the best practice frontier in our model economic freedom and policy stability affect economic performance by enhancing technical efficiency in other words these institutions do not alter the state of technology but they allow producers to squeeze more out of current technology for instance countries with more stable policies attract more foreign investment than countries with less stable policies ceteris paribus this leads to increased competition among producers which in turn brings efficiency gains similarly countries with lower taxes milder regulatory burdens lower inflation fewer restrictions on foreign ownership and so on are likely to produce output more efficiently than countries with policies that restrict production inhibit capital formation and reduce competition

state market civil institutions the case of eastern europe and the soviet republics abstract the transition tasks facing the countries of central and eastern europe are monumental the public sector will play a dominant role during the transition process available evidence suggests that orthodox prescriptions for public sector reform cannot be effectively implemented without an underlying constitution and a legal and regulatory infrastructure lri a well designed constitution and lri instill confidence and policy credibility with perfectly rational expectations and confidence in the constitution and lri the sequence of reforms matters little future reforms are perfectly anticipated today and agents act as though the reforms will occur with certainty short of such confidence reforms need to be simultaneously pursued on many fronts the most important activity is to redefine the role of the state setting a constitution that clearly defines and secures basic political civil and economic freedoms and designing an lri that creates a fertile environment for a vibrant market economy

information shares in the us treasury market abstract this paper highlights the previously neglected role of the futures markets in us treasury price discovery the estimates of 5 and 10 year govpx spot market information shares typically fail to reach 50 from 1999 on the govpx information shares for the 2 year contract are higher than those of the 5 and 10 year maturities but also decline after 1998 relative bid ask spreads number of trades and realized volatility are statistically significant and explain up to 21 of daily information shares in roughly 1 4 of cases when public information is released the futures market gains information share but macroeconomic announcements rarely explain information shares independently of liquidity

national competitive advantage and the roles of economic and political freedom evidence from hong kong the equivocal interrelationships between economic performance and the institu tions of respectively economic and political freedom are examined using data from firms op erating in hong kong an economy where both an erstwhile paramount international business reputation for competitiveness and the institutional basis on which it was predicated have come into question in recent years it is hypothesized that i both economic and political freedom declines will be associated with a proxy for future economic performance competitiveness decline but that ii the correlation of economic freedom declines with competitiveness de cline will be mediated by political freedom declines hierarchical regression analyses tend to support these hypotheses although results vary by firm origin

democracy property rights and economic growth what does the global surge in democracy and capitalism portend for economic growth the shift toward popular government is predicted by some to accelerate growth by others to retard it often left out of the equation is property rights as a factor distinct from democratic rule using recent data on 59 less developed and transitional countries this article explores the relationship among institutional factors and growth in the 1980s and early 1990s democratic freedoms and property rights are associated with the dependent variable suggesting that national income in poor countries stands to gain from recent efforts to implant these institutions

governance and growth a simple hypothesis explaining cross country differences in productivity growth cross country evidence shows that a subset of developing countries isgrowing very rapidly taking advantage of opportunities to catch up atthe same time that other developing countries are growing slowly we arguethat this is due to differences in the quality of governance inparticular we show that productivity growth is higher in better governedcountries

three variants on the allais example three variants on the famous allais example were administered to student subjects two variants involved small changes in the example yet greatly diminished the qualitative behavior known as the allais paradox the third variant is almost a direct test of daniel kahneman and amos tversky s certainty effect against mark machina s fanning out hypothesis the results favor the certainty effect over the fanning out hypothesis for at least the case of straight line indifference curves copyright 1989 by american economic association

natural resources and the tradeoff between authoritarianism and development abstract why do african and middle eastern countries seem cursed by an abundance of natural resources yet usa australia and norway seem blessed a growing literature has argued that the benevolence or malignance of natural resources depends upon the quality of institutions this paper offers a new explanation based on associational freedom and its interaction with the political system the model predicts that natural resources have an adverse impact on economic performance and transition to democracy in authoritarian regimes but not in democracies it also predicts that repression of associational freedom will be increasing in natural resources in authoritarian regimes i test the model s predictions using fixed effects regressions on an international panel from 1975 to 2000 and find support

the sustainability of political democracy lessons from south america recent literature emphasizes the fragility of newly emerging democracies and the importance of economic performance to their survival the analysis reevaluates this conventional wisdom and tests a

democracy rent seeking public spending and growth abstract does democratization imply faster growth less corruption and less inefficiency past studies yield ambiguous results on the effects of democracy on economic performance and growth we develop a simple two sector endogenous growth model that shows both very young and mature democracies grow faster than countries in mid stages of democratization producing a u effect this effect results from the pattern of rent seeking as it diverts from the provision of public goods rent seekers act as monopolistic competitors initially more democracy increases their number raising aggregate rents however rents per rent seeker fall with the number of rent seekers due to this crowding effect and the increased competition among rent seekers aggregate rents fall in mature democracies thus rents show an inverted u effect in relation to democracy we find fairly robust supportive evidence for the latter

why not africa growth and welfare effects of secure property rights this paper presents the long run equilibrium and developmentdynamics in the neoclassical growth model and a simple modelof endogenous growth when property rights are absent theresults are compared to the outcome in a corresponding modelwith secure property rights the main findings are that thereexists a considerable gain in level and growth of consumptionfrom establishing secure property rights that economicperformance without property rights worsens with an increasingnumber of competing social groups and that the existence orabsence of property rights explains conditional convergence

political variables in cross country growth analysis the recent boom in cross country growth analysis has renewed the empirical interest in political sources of economic growth a large number of studies have tested political variables in growth regressions and a very heterogenous set of variables has been proposed to measure economically relevant differences in the political systems of countries this paper distinguishes five categories of relevant political variables democracy government stability political violence policy volatility and subjective perception of politics for each of these categories the specification testing method and results of the most relevant studies are presented and are critically discussed the paper concludes that measures of democracy are least successful and measures of policy volatility and subjective perception of politics most successful as explanatory variables in cross country growth regressions

liberty and development a further empirical perspective this paper uses the wright ratings of economic freedom to investigate the relationship between economic freedom and economic development for most countries in the world this rela tionship is apparently strong and direct for such economic freedoms as freedom of property and freedom of movement but inverse for freedom of association these findings appear to be indepen dent of the type of economic system or civil liberties as measured by the gastil ratings which have their own important effects on economic development