another look at the spending response to the 2001 income tax rebates this article revisits the spending response to the 2001 us tax rebates by focussing on two key aspects of how tax policy researchers use the consumer expenditure survey cex these two attributes which are often overlooked are as follows the measures used for consumption and the outlier criteria applied to the data first i reproduce the results in johnson et al 2006 which using the cex concluded that households immediately spent 20 40 of their rebates on nondurable consumption goods then i show how making two changes both of which are relied upon in the literature affects their results these adjustments reduce the estimated magnitude of the rebate s impact by as much as 100

optimizing multinomial logit profit functions the multinomial logit model is a standard approach for determining the probability of purchase in product line problems when the purchase probabilities are multiplied by product contribution margins the resulting profit function is generally nonconcave because of this standard nonlinear search procedures may terminate at a local optimum which is far from the global optimum we present a simple procedure designed to alleviate this problem the key idea of this procedure is to find a path of prices from the global optimum of a related but concave logit profit function to the global optimum of the true but nonconcave logit profit function

unanticipated aggregate disturbances and tests of the life cycle consumption model several recent studies have used data on food consumption from the panel study of income dynamics psid to test t he rational expectations life cycle hypothesis against the alternative of prevalent liquidity constraints these tests invoke the rational expectations restriction that income forecast errors are independent of lagged information this restriction however applies only in a time series context it is possible that unanticipated macroeconomic disturbances cause forecast errors to be correlated with lagged information in a cross section of families the authors present evidence of such a correlation in the psid data show that this correlation biases previous tests of the life cycle model toward rejection and derive a proper test of the life cycle model using pa nel data copyright 1993 by mit press

consumption of durable goods and tests of the permanent income hypothesis evidence from korean macro data quarterly aggregate data from korean urban households is used to test the restrictions on the vector autoregressive var representation of the permanent income hypothesis pih in testing these restrictions an alternative consumption measure is proposed which takes account of the flow of services from durable goods for comparison two commonly used measures total consumption expenditures and expenditures on non durables and services are also employed in the empirical analysis and the results show that the choice of consumption measures could have a significant effect on the results of the tests leading to a false conclusion with the improper consumption variables

affirmative action in higher education how do admission and financial aid rules affect future earnings this paper addresses how changing the admission and financial aid rules at colleges affects future earnings i estimate a structural model of the following decisions by individuals where to submit applications which school to attend and what field to study the model also includes decisions by schools as to which students to accept and how much financial aid to offer simulating how black educational choices would change were they to face the white admission and aid rules shows that race based advantages had little effect on earnings however removing race based advantages does affect black educational outcomes in particular removing advantages in admissions substantially decreases the number of black students at top tier schools while removing advantages in financial aid causes a decrease in the number of blacks who attend college

consumer response to the reagan tax cuts abstract this paper uses micro data from the consumer expenditure survey to estimate the response of household consumption to the second and third phases of the reagan tax cuts since these phases were pre announced they allow for an unusually clean test of the canonical life cycle permanent income model consumption is found to be excessively sensitive to the tax cuts counter to the model liquidity constraints and other standard explanations do not appear to explain this excess sensitivity the consumption response is larger than previously estimated for tax refunds and more concentrated in nondurables these differences have important implications for the structure of tax changes in particular for choosing between varying withholding rates versus varying lumpy final tax payments and refunds

micro data heterogeneity and the evaluation of public policy nobel lecture this paper summarizes the contributions of microeconometrics to economic knowledge four main themes are developed 1 microeconometricians developed new tools to respond to econometric problems raised by the analysis of the new sources of micro data produced after the second world war 2 microeconometrics improved on aggregate time series methods by building models that linked economic models for individuals to data on individual behavior 3 an important empirical regularity detected by the field is the diversity and heterogeneity of behavior this heterogeneity has profound consequences for economic theory and for econometric practice 4 microeconometrics has contributed substantially to the scientific evaluation of public policy

international corporate entrepreneurship and firm performance the moderating effect of international environmental hostility abstract globalization of the world economy has encouraged u s companies to leverage their resources and skills by expanding into existing or new foreign markets u s companies have also acquired new capabilities by locating important functional activities overseas and joining with foreign partners in new markets through alliances and joint ventures these opportunities however are tempered by the constraints imposed by the competitive forces that exist in international environments aggressive government intervention technological changes and fierce local rivalries all contribute to hostile international environments for u s firms global expansion success in global business operations requires resourcefulness and entrepreneurial risk taking the activities of u s companies in foreign markets therefore provide a unique opportunity to examine the effects of international corporate entrepreneurship ice efforts on company performance ice is defined as the sum of a company s efforts aimed at innovation proactiveness and risk taking these efforts offer an important means of revitalizing and renewing established companies and improving their performance few studies have empirically examined the effects of ice activities on companies financial performance this study used data from 98 u s companies to 1 determine the impact of ice efforts on firm performance and 2 explore the moderating effect that the perceived hostility of the international environment has on the relationship between ice and company performance the results showed that ice was positively associated with a firm s overall profitability and growth as well as its foreign profitability and growth those firms that aggressively pursued ice in international environments with higher levels of hostility had higher return on assets roa but did not achieve significantly higher levels of growth however as hostility in the international environment continued to intensify roa rose and then fell as companies increased their ice activities thus there was a point of diminishing returns to a company s aggressive pursuit of ice under excessive environmental hostility the results highlight both the rewards and risks of pursuing ice companies benefit from ice activities by achieving higher overall performance as well as foreign profits and growth in revenue however the aggressive pursuit of ice does not always guarantee superior performance our results show that the payoff from ice is moderated by executives perceptions of the hostility of their firm s international business environment our findings highlight the importance of ice for organizational success both overall and in foreign markets yet the results compellingly suggest that there are upper limits to the potential gains a firm achieves from its aggressive pursuit of ice when the international environment in which it competes is hostile

consumer response to tax rebates many households received income tax rebates in 2001 of 300 or 600 these rebates represented advance payments of the tax cut from the new 10 percent tax bracket based on a survey of a representative sample of households this paper finds that only 22 percent of households receiving the rebate would spent it instead they would either save it or use it to pay off debt this very low rate of spending represents a striking break with past behavior which would have suggested a much higher rate of spending the low spending rate implies that the tax rebate provided a very limited stimulus to aggregate demand this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the structure of equilibria in market share attraction models a market share attraction model of competitive effort allocation by two firms is formulated as a constant sum two person game the dependence of optimal competitive effort allocations on factors such as gross profit margins relative effectiveness of effort and attraction elasticity of effort is studied two versions of the model are developed in the first version effort budgets of both competitors are exogenously fixed in the second the competitors each choose both budget levels and allocations in each version of the model an important function of the parameters called the competitive advantage ratio indicates when it is optimal to either increase or decrease effort allocated in a market in response to changes in various measures of effectiveness implications of differences in the cost associated with each competitor s budget on equilibrium allocations are derived

durability and tests of the permanent income hypothesis using partially disaggregated consumption data since goods classified as non durable may in fact have a durable component random walk tests of the permanent income hypothesis using non durable data series may yield incorrect results this paper investigates this problem by first simulating a model of consumption to show the effects of durability on statistical tests of non durable consumption models and then by applying these tests to various disaggregated consumption series to determine the effect in practice the paper finds that there are significant differences in the behaviour of the series within the non durables and services catagories and that these differences may be related to durability the effect of this on standard tests of consumption is discussed

joint inventory and pricing decisions for an assortment we seek optimal inventory levels and prices of multiple products in a given assortment in a newsvendor model single period stochastic demand under price based substitution but not stockout based substitution we address a demand model involving multiplicative uncertainty motivated by market share models often used in marketing the pricing problem that arises is known not to be well behaved in the sense that in its deterministic version the objective function is not jointly quasi concave in prices however we find that the objective function is still reasonably well behaved in the sense that there is a unique solution to the first order conditions and this solution is optimal for our problem

platform investments and volatile exchange rates direct investment in the u s by japanese electronic companies this study examines the effects of previous entry on the subsequent decisions of japanese electronics companies to invest in the united states by gathering data at the firm level the empirical analysis provides a fine grain sorting out of firm and industry effects on foreign direct investment decisions the findings show that investment behavior is highly heterogeneous across firms and reflects their individual technological capabilities and their history of previous investments in the united states real exchange rate levels are also important the results suggest that initial investments serve as platforms for subsequent entry with the timing of entry triggered by movements in real exchange rates copyright 1996 by mit press

firm specific strategic advantages and foreign direct investment behavior of firms the case of japanese semiconductor firms we examine the effects of firm specific strategic advantages on the fdi behavior of japanese semiconductor firms we investigate the strategic advantages necessary for undertaking fdi in this industry and show that these advantages are systematically associated with the variation in fdi behavior we identify technological innovation a broad product line and vertical linkages with down stream businesses as sources of such strategic advantages we also show that size of the firm influences its decision to go international

optimal pricing of correlated product options under the paired combinatorial logit model in this paper we study price optimization with price demand relationships captured by the paired combinatorial logit pcl model which overcomes restrictions of the well studied multinomial logit mnl and nested logit nl models the pcl model allows for choice correlation and like the nl model includes the mnl model as a special case compared to the nl models the pcl model does not restrict the sequence of the choice structure and allows for different covariances among all pairs of choices this additional flexibility in structure enables a more accurate representation of some choice settings and broadens its empirical applications hence it is of both theoretical and practical interests to extend the normative studies on the mnl and nl models to the pcl model and examine the pricing problem under this model due to cross nesting of choice alternatives the pricing problem under the pcl model poses a greater challenge than the mnl and nl models however using the concept of p matrix we are abl

the choice theory approach to market research this paper surveys economic choice theory stressing developments that permit use of data from psychometric and conjoint experiments to produce market demand forecasts alternatives to the widely used multinomial logit model are summarized and a new method for estimating multinomial probits is described an integration of choice models with attitudinal scaling and perceptual mapping within a latent variable system is described estimation of such systems under either random effects or fixed effects descriptions of heterogeneity across individuals is discussed issues in the use of choice models to describe responses from conjoint experiments are presented new regression diagnostic tests for the consistency of multinomial logit representations are discussed

the response of expenditures to anticipated income changes panel data estimates standard models of intertemporal allocation predict that the time path of expenditures should be independent of the time path of income recently two papers parker 1999 and souleles 1999 have suggested that u s households have a high marginal propensity to spend within year anticipated income changes we use an expenditure survey panel from spain to re examine this issue we exploit two important features of the spanish data first we have quarterly panel data that follows households for more than four quarters second we use the fact that workers are exogenously sorted into one of two payment schemes some receive the same amount each month of the year and others receive an extra payment in june and december the extra payment is large and predictable we examine the detailed pattern of expenditures over the year to see whether they differ between the two groups we fail to find even weak differences we complement this with a conventional euler equation analysis of excess sensitivity our predicting equation for quarterly earnings growth is much better than usual and is likely to give a powerful test of the hypothesis that predictable changes in income do not lead to changes in expenditure patterns the results of this analysis confirm the graphical analysis we find no evidence of excess sensitivity we conclude that households in normal times do smooth consumption over the year we suggest a reconciliation of our results with those of parker and souleles

choice of foreign market entry mode impact of ownership location and internalization factors firms interested in servicing foreign markets face a difficult decision with regards to the choice of an entry mode the options available to a firm include exporting licensing joint venture and sole venture several factors that determine the choice of a specific foreign market entry mode have been identified in previous literature these factors can be classified into three categories ownership advantages of a firm location advantages of a market and internalization advantages of integrating transactions this study examines the independent and joint influences of these factors on the choice of an entry mode multinomial logistic regression model is employed to test the hypothesized effects

household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001 using questions expressly added to the consumer expenditure survey we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by the 2001 federal income tax rebates and test the permanent income hypothesis we exploit the unique randomized timing of rebate receipt across households households spent 20 to 40 percent of their rebates on nondurable goods during the three month period in which their rebates arrived and roughly two thirds of their rebates cumulatively during this period and the subsequent three month period the implied effects on aggregate consumption demand are substantial consistent with liquidity constraints responses are larger for households with low liquid wealth or low income

does the choice of consumption measure matter an application to the permanent income hypothesis abstract food consumption in the panel study of income dynamics is used as a proxy for total consumption in many applications in economics including tests of the permanent income hypothesis tests of separability between consumption and leisure and tests of intergenerational altruism food however explains only a small fraction of the variation in total consumption i propose a measure of composite consumption based on predicted wealth and compare it both to food consumption and to skinner s 1987 measure of predicted consumption in a test of the permanent income hypothesis using a log linear intertemporal consumption function i find that food does not reject the permanent income hypothesis but both skinner s predicted consumption and the composite measure proposed here to reject the hypothesis

the permanent income hypothesis estimation and testing by instrumental variables the permanent income hypothesis with rational expectation is restated estimated and tested by an instrumental variables technique on the postwar u s aggregate time series data the hypothesis is accepted on a consumption series which includes service flows from consumer durables if the consumption series is the one in the national income and product accounts the hypothesis is decisively rejected an explanation is suggested to reconcile the conflicting test results

the reaction of household consumption to predictable changes in social security taxes the key implication of rational expectations and the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures is examined this implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy the causes and propagation of business cycles and the effects of income fluctuations on the growth rate of the economy using household level consumption data from the consumer expenditure survey whether expenditures on nondurable goods increase contemporaneously with predictable changes in social security tax withholding is tested it is found that households do change their consumption expenditures in response to the predictable fluctuations in income induced by the social security tax system

the perception and measurement of transaction costs the chapter discusses various explanations of how transaction cost minimising corporate configurations come about it contrasts darwinian with rational explanations finding both unsatisfactory what matters rather than computation of fully recognised transaction costs are managerial perceptions of transaction costs these perceptions are not expressed in numbers but in language this is related to arguments derived from bounded rationality and from transaction cost economics the chapter argues that issues of managerial perception must become central to analysis existing academic traditions which accord primacy to perception and to language are drawn upon and argued to be of great relevance to future work

do consumers react to anticipated income changes evidence from the alaska permanent fund a central implication of the life cycle permanentincome hypothesis lc pih is that consumers should not respond to predictable changes in their income to test this hypothesis a number of recent papers have exploited natural experiments to identify anticipated income changes in particular recent work by parker 1999 uses the change in after tax income due to the cap on earnings subject to the social security tax and a related paper by souleles 1999 examines the response of consumption to income tax refunds surprisingly parker and souleles find that even when income is expected to change within the year expenditure is excessively sensitive to the timing of the income change while their results can be interpreted as evidence that our canonical model of consumption is inadequate an alternative explanation is that the anticipated income changes they exploit are small and irregular and that households will not bother to change their consumption paths when the computational costs involved are large relative to the utility gains in support of this interpretation browning and collado 2001 find that the seasonal consumption patterns of spanish households that work in sectors that provide regular bonus payments do not differ from those of households that do not receive bonus payments this paper adds to this evidence by exploiting a natural experiment provided by annual payments from the state of alaska s permanent fund to every resident in the state of alaska that should yield an unusually powerful test of the lc pih these payments are large and clearly anticipated by alaskan residents using the variation in the size of the payments over time and in the amount received by families of different sizes to identify the response of consumption to payments from the permanent fund i find no evidence that the consumption of alaskan households reacts to these payments in addition i find no evidence that the seasonal pattern of consumption in alaska differs from that in the other 49 states or that households in alaska are subject to fewer liquidity constraints engage in less buffer stock saving or spend a smaller fraction of their income on semidurable goods than households in the rest of the united states however although households in alaska do not overreact to payments from the permanent fund i find that the consumption of the very same households is excessively sensitive to their income tax refunds this evidence suggest that households will take anticipated income changes into account in their consumption decisions when the income changes are large regular and easy to predict but will not do so when they are small and irregular the paper proceeds as follows the next section of the paper presents details on the department of economics princeton university princeton nj 08544 and national bureau of economic research e mail chsieh princeton edu i am very grateful to the bureau of labor statistics bls for providing access to the data from the consumer expenditure survey and to its staff particularly steven henderson walter vandeheide and wolf weber for their generous assistance during my visits to the bls i also thank nanci jones for providing data and patiently answering questions on the operation of the alaska permanent fund anne case angus deaton jonathan parker and two referees provided useful comments the views expressed in this paper are personal and should not be attributed to the bls 1 i refer to the certainty equivalent version of the lc pih or one in which the expected variance of consumption is constant as is well known without these assumptions the lc pih only implies smoothing of marginal utility not necessarily of consumption 2 see christina h paxson 1992 john shea 1995 jonathan a parker 1999 nicholas s souleles 1999 martin browning and m dolores collado 2001 also see ronald a bodkin 1959 for an early example of the use of a natural experiment to test for excess sensitivity for comprehensive reviews of the large literature on empirical tests of the lc pih see angus deaton 1992 browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 and browning and thomas f crossley 2001 3 in 1998 for example the permanent fund paid 1 541 to every resident of the state of alaska

who is credit constrained in the u s economy an important assumption of the life cycle model of consumption is the postulate of perfect capital markets this hypothesis has recently been challenged by substantial empirical evidence hall and mishkin 1982 using the panel study of income dynamics estimate that 20 percent of united states families are liquidity constrained mariger 1986 derives a life cycle model with endogenous liquidity constraints and using a cross section estimates this fraction to be 19 4 percent hubbard and judd 1986 simulate a model with a constraint on net worth which shows that with reasonable assumptions about preferences 19 0 percent of united states consumers are liquidity constrained the emerging consensus points therefore to a fraction of approximately 20 percent of the population behaving in a manner that is inconsistent with the pure life cycle model in addition hayashi 1985 and zeldes 1989 investigate the correlation among consumption wealth and income for various population groups and infer that liquidity constraints are more important for younger families with low levels of wealth and saving the main limitation of these studies is that in their data sets constrained consumers are not observable and have to be identified via indirect evidence thus there is as yet little firm evidence about the characteristics of the consumers who are likely to be credit constrained this paper adopts an approach that differs from previous tests for liquidity constraints because it makes use of data where constrained consumers are observable and explicitly links their existence to credit market imperfections and personal characteristics the data drawn from the 1983 survey of consumer finances scf and described in section ii provide information on individuals whose request for credit has been rejected by financial intermediaries in section iii a model is developed in which consumers and lenders behavior jointly determines the probability that a consumer is rationed in the credit market this probability is then

consumption and income some simple excercises with panel data this paper reports on the performance of simple versions of the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis of hall 1978 and the error correction approach of davidson et al 1978 in explaining nondurable consumption expenditure from austrian panel data paying particular attention to the characterization of nondurability we examine the parameter restrictions implied by the respective models and then select favoured dynamic consumption income relationship our findings suggest that the models receive limited support only for the narrowest category of nondurables food consumed at home particularly for broader categories the strength of model rejections and the complex dynamic paths observed imply that the models provide an inadequate description of consumption at the micro level

assortment optimization under variants of the nested logit model we study a class of assortment optimization problems where customers choose among the offered products according to the nested logit model there is a fixed revenue associated with each product the objective is to find an assortment of products to offer so as to maximize the expected revenue per customer we show that the problem is polynomially solvable when the nest dissimilarity parameters of the choice model are less than one and the customers always make a purchase within the selected nest relaxing either of these assumptions renders the problem np hard to deal with the np hard cases we develop parsimonious collections of candidate assortments with worst case performance guarantees we also formulate a convex program whose optimal objective value is an upper bound on the optimal expected revenue thus we can compare the expected revenue provided by an assortment with the upper bound on the optimal expected revenue to get a feel for the optimality gap of the assortment by using this approach our computational experiments test the performance of the parsimonious collections of candidate assortments that we develop

are consumers forward looking evidence from fiscal experiments how changes in current and future income affect consumer spending is a perennial question in macroeconomics and public finance theoretical constructs such as the permanent income hypothesis are of limited assistance in resolving this issue because they neglect borrowing constraints and other market imperfections that can significantly affect the marginal propensity to spend out of current income recent empirical work has also proven inconclusive since whether consumption responds to income fluctuations by more or less than the permanent income hypothesis predicts turns critically upon whether disposable income follows a random walk or is stationary around a longrun trend see john campbell and angus deaton 1987 this controversy is unlikely to be resolved conclusively because it is notoriously difficult to distinguish a stationary but highly persistent time series from one that is nonstationary these difficulties suggest the importance of searching for natural experiments income shocks with predictable and well understood effects on future income to test models of consumer behavior changes in federal tax and transfer policy during the last two decades provide several episodes of this type analyzing the effects of these tax changes is also central to understanding the role of fiscal policy in affecting national saving this paper examines two aspects of consumer response to tax changes section i argues that consumption responds to temporary income tax shocks by more than the permanent income hypothesis would suggest results from the 1975 tax rebate in particular suggest that a 1 increase in transitory income raises spending by about 20 cents section ii examines consumption responses to tax announcements although the results are not conclusive they suggest that some consumers do not adjust consumption in anticipation of tax changes the final section sketches some implications for analyzing fiscal policy

competition under generalized attraction models applications to quality competition under yield uncertainty we characterize the equilibrium behavior in a broad class of competition models in which the competing firms market shares are given by an attraction model and the aggregate sales in the industry depend on the aggregate attraction value according to a general function each firm s revenues and costs are proportional with its expected sales volume with a cost rate that depends on the firm s chosen attraction value according to an arbitrary increasing function whereas most existing competition papers with attraction models can be viewed as special cases of this general model we apply our general results to a new set of quality competition models here an industry has n suppliers of a given product who compete for the business of one or more buyers each of the suppliers encounters an uncertain yield factor with a given general yield distribution the buyers face uncertain demands over the course of a given sales season the suppliers compete by selecting key characteristics of their yield distributions either their means their standard deviations or both these choices have implications for their per unit cost rates

on the prediction power of market share attraction models logical consistency of market share models has received considerable attention in the recent marketing literature the reports suggest that at least theoretically attraction type specifications a

foreign direct investment by japanese electronics firms in the united states and canada modelling the timing of entry this paper examines the relationship between attributes of japanese electronics firms and the sequence of their investments in the u s and canada it is argued that a useful way to model foreign direct investment fdi decisions is to recognize explicitly the uncertainties involved in them a probabilistic model of fdi is specified the following hypotheses are incorporated in the model 1 the higher the risk adjusted expected net benefits from foreign direct investment ceteris paribus the higher the probability of making an investment at any particular moment and thus the probability of investing earlier 2 risk adjusted expected net benefits from fdi by a firm are a function of its possession of certain types of intangible transportable assets 3 the uncertainties involved with fdi may be reduced with the passage of time and with increased experience with foreign operations 4 parent company attributes that facilitate market intelligence capabilities permit early recognition of investment opportunities and 5 timing of entry may reflect strategic considerations such as responding to growing foreign market opportunities the need to ensure market access and the presence of opportunities to obtain abnormal profits due to market concentration the models are estimated using cox s proportional hazards regression model results generally confirm the hypotheses that size and financial capabilities as well as possession of some knowledge based firm specific strategic assets are significantly related to early fdi they also confirm that timing of entry is affected by market opportunities and in some cases by the need to ensure market access we did not find evidence in this sector that differences in market concentration significantly affected the timing of fdi analyses are also provided of inter period changes in the importance of different types of intangible assets in explaining earlier fdi as well as changes that reflect differences in host country environments

policy specific alienation and indifference in the calculus of voting a simultaneous model of party choice and abstention this article aims to combine the spatial models of candidate party choice and abstention participation choice in a single decision model and to provide empirical reaction functions the starting point of this study is the hypothesis of a sequential ordering of candidate choice and participation choice riker and ordeshook 1973 the proposed model simultaneously considers the choice among n 2 parties and the abstention option it differentiates between policy specific effects of alienation and indifference the models are estimated with nested multiattributive discrete choice models which are theoretically founded on random utility theory

the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income estimates from panel data on households we investigate the stochastic relation between income and consumption specifically consumption of food within a panel of about 2 000 households our major findings are 1 consumption responds much more strongly to permanent than to transitory movements of income 2 the response to transitory income is nonetheless clearly positive 3 a simple test independent of our model of consumption rejects a central implication of the pure life cycle permanent income hypothesis the observed covariation of income and consumption is compatible with pure life cycle permanent income behavior on the part of80 percent of families and simple proportionality of consumption and income among the remaining 20 percent as a general matter our findings support the view that families respond differently to different sources of income variations in particular temporary income tax policies have smaller effects on consumption than do other more permanent changes in income of the same magnitude this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

japanese firms and the decision to invest abroad business groups and regional core networks the determinants of the decision by japanese firms to set up manufacturing plants in southeast asia europe and north america are analyzed using micro data on the behavior of firms in the electronics industry while firm specific intangible assets based on r d and marketing efforts are positively related to the decision to invest in europe and north america investment in southeast asia is mainly related to human resources and driven by interfirm ties within horizontal and vertical business groups the empirical results suggest that membership of horizontal keiretsu relaxes liquidity constraints while the manufacturing networks of horizontal and vertical keiretsu in southeast asia facilitate the establishment of manufacturing plants by member firms copyright 1996 by mit press

competing for capital the diffusion of bilateral investment treaties 1960 2000 over the past forty five years bilateral investment treaties bits have become the most important international legal mechanism for the encouragement and governance of foreign direct investment the proliferation of bits during the past two decades in particular has been phenomenal these intergovernmental treaties typically grant extensive rights to foreign investors including protection of contractual rights and the right to international arbitration in the event of an investment dispute how can we explain the widespread adoption of bits we argue that the spread of bits is driven by international competition among potential host countries typically developing countries for foreign direct investment we propose a set of hypotheses that derive from such an explanation and develop a set of empirical tests that rely on network measures of economic competition as well as more indirect evidence of competitive pressures on the host to sign bits the evidence suggests that potential hosts are more likely to sign bits when their competitors have done so we find some evidence that coercion and learning play a role but less support for cultural explanations based on emulation our main finding is that the diffusion of bits is associated with competitive economic pressures among developing countries to capture a share of foreign investment we are agnostic at this point about the benefits of this competition for development for useful comments on earlier drafts of this article we thank bill bernhard bear braumoeller frank dobbin robert franzese jeffry frieden geoffrey garrett tom ginsburg jude hays lisa martin bob pahre mark ramsayer steven ratner susan rose ackerman and john sides for research assistance we thank elizabeth burden raechel groom and alexander noonan

vertical keiretsu and international market entry the case of the japanese automobile ancillary industry this study investigated whether small japanese automobile ancillary firms followed the major japanese automakers in setting up production facilities in the united states based on dunning s eclectic theory of foreign direct investment and resource dependence theory hypotheses were generated to explain the determinants of foreign investment of japanese suppliers it was hypothesized that mutual dependencies between the major japanese automobile firms and their suppliers firm specific ownership advantages profitability and keiretsu affiliation influenced the foreign direct investment of the first tier automobile ancillary firms into the united states data on the entire population of 446 japanese automobile ancillary manufacturers were obtained from archival sources logistical regression analyses indicated that keiretsu affiliation previous international experience small size lower dependence of supplier firms on the automobile assembly firm and higher dependence of core firms on affiliate firms all contributed to this foreign direct investment

the life cycle model of consumption and saving a central implication of life cycle models is that agents smooth consumption we review the empirical evidence on smoothing at frequencies from within the year up to across a lifetime we find that life cycle models particular those which incorporate realistic features of markets and goods have more empirical successes than failures we also show that some apparent deviations from theoretical predictions imply very small welfare losses for agents finally we emphasize that the coherence of life cycle models imposes an important discipline when incorporating new features into models

further evidence of excess sensitivity of consumption nonseparability among goods and heterogeneity across households the standard theoretical framework for analysing households intertemporal decisions is the life cycle permanent income model among its implications testing the model allows to analyse the response of consumption to fiscal policy however the empirical literature with microdata has yielded mixed results this article examines the sensitivity of the results to the assumption of separability among goods and of homogeneity across households for that purpose we test a rational expectations permanent income model with household data drawn from the spanish family expenditure survey this survey contains detailed information on total expenditure and the income presents large exogenous quarterly changes due to an institutional feature the article shows that assuming separability among commodities biases the test against the model when separability is not imposed we show that the rejection of the model depends on heterogeneity across households in terms of their members being unemployed or not for those

consumption of spanish households evidence from cohort data in this paper empirical evidence on elasticity of intertemporal substitution for spanish household consumption is shown several recent studies have rejected the lifecycle permanent income hypothesis using aggregate time series the rejection of the theory has often been blamed on the restrictive assumptions adopted in order to test the hypothesis this article tests the household behaviour using cohort data from the spanish encuesta continua de presupuestos familiares continuous survey of household budgets this source allows us to relax some of the most restrictive assumptions by using data with a certain degree of disaggregation evidence of consumer behaviour following the theory is found indirect evidence of liquidity constraints is also found and an alternative discount rate designed to be in better accordance with the theoretical foundations of the model is proposed

permanent income current income and consumption evidence from two panel data sets in this article i estimate euler equations that is the first order conditions of the consumers maximization problem using data from two data sets consumption data are taken from the consumer expenditure survey income data are taken from the panel study of income dynamics because the data for the estimation come from two samples i use a generalization of the instrumental variables estimator the two sample instrumental variables estimator i find evidence that consumption is excessively sensitive to predictable income growth the estimates of the coefficient of excess sensitivity for three consumption measures range from 2 to 5

economic analysis and the quest for competitive advantage curred in the past decade between applied microeconomists and those who study business strategy business strategists have cast up a series of questions for industrial economists who have responded with numerous applications of economic theory and quantitative research methods this interchange has been fruitful and indeed more fruit remains for the picking i shall argue for centering the collaborative effort on what may be called committed competition rivalrous moves among incumbent producers that involve resource commitments that are irrevocable for nontrivial periods of time most concerns of business strategy are with policy choices that

the response of household consumption to income tax refunds a central implication of the life cycle or permanent income theory is that consumption should not respond to predictable fluctuations in income tests of this implication have yielded mixed results especially on micro data angus deaton 1992 martin browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 in large part this might be due to the difficulties of isolating the predictable component of income at the micro level most tests proceed by instrumenting for income but since the available instruments are typically poor such tests might be prejudiced against finding significant excess sensitivity of consumption to income john shea 1995 also it is not clear how closely the resulting econometric predictions of income coincide with agents actual expectations of income to avoid these difficulties this paper examines the response of household consumption to a particular type of income that is both predictable and transitory income tax refunds since a refund depends on events in the previous calendar year it is predictable income as regards consumption in the year of its receipt consequently under the life cycle theory consumption should not increase on receipt of a refund 2 in addition to testing the canonical model of consumption this paper provides estimates interpretable as the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of refunds since federal tax refunds now amount to over 80 billion per year averaging well over 1 000 per refund these estimates are of interest in themselves more generally they bear on the impact of even preannounced and temporary changes in fiscal policy the paper begins by surveying related studies in section i section ii describes the data the consumer expenditure survey cex which of the leading u s micro data sets has the most comprehensive coverage of expenditure the empirical specification is set out in section hi section iv reports the results and section v concludes

comparative business failures of foreign controlled firms in the united states we explore the comparative business failures of foreign owned or controlled firms and domestically owned firms original data are collected regarding foreign controlled firms in the u s that filed for bankruptcy protection were involuntarily liquidated or ceased operations mainly due to poor financial performance during the 1978 1988 period our results show that foreign controlled firms fail less often than domestically owned firms the patterns of foreign controlled business failures and the impacts of entry modes ownership types and national culture on the failures of foreign controlled firms are also examined

strategic implications of market share attraction models market share attraction models which specify that a firm s market share is equal to the ratio of its attraction to the total attraction for all firms have received increasing attention in recent years however there has been little research investigating the practical implications of such models this paper presents a game theoretic analysis of such a model and deduces the strategic implications of a nash equilibrium solution to the model it is shown that these implications are consistent with previous empirical research in marketing and business policy

technical note pricing under the nested attraction model with a multistage choice structure we develop a solution approach to the centralized pricing problem of a nested attraction model with a multistage tree structure we identify conditions under which the optimal solution can be uniquely determined and we characterize the optimal solution as a fixed point of a single variable in the special case of a multistage nested logit model we show the impact of asymmetry in price sensitivity and adjustment index also known as the dissimilarity index and we derive a closed form solution when the tree structure is symmetric many existing results in the literature regarding the single or two stage nested attraction model are shown to be special cases of the results we have derived we show that the equal markup property which holds for the single stage logit model with symmetric price sensitivity in general does not hold for products that do not share the same immediate parent node in the nested choice structure even when price sensitivities are the same for all products

do liquidity constraints vary over time evidence from survey and panel data note much empirical work has been devoted to estimating the proportion of liquidity constrained consumers p and the fraction of income held by these liquidity constrained consumers l a common feature of these studies is that p and l are taken to be constant over time this paper attempts to determine whether this assertion is empirically justified by providing new evidence on the extent of liquidity constraints using survey and panel data the authors find that p and l do vary over time with trend and cyclical components but that over the period 1968 82 these fluctuations have not been dramatic copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

product differentiation and oligopoly in international markets the case of the u s automobile industry this paper develops and estimates a model of the u s automobile industry on the demand side a discrete choice model is adopted that is estimated using micro data from the consumer expenditure survey the estimation results are used in conjunction with population weights to derive aggregate demand on the supply side the automobile industry is modelled as an oligopoly with product differentiation equilibrium is characterized by the first order conditions of the profit maximizing firms the estimation results are used in counterfactual simulations to investigate two trade policy issues the effects of the ver and exchange rate pass through

the d level nested logit model assortment and price optimization problems we consider assortment and price optimization problems under the d level nested logit model in the assortment optimization problem the goal is to find the revenue maximizing assortment of products to offer when the prices of the products are fixed using a novel formulation of the d level nested logit model as a tree of depth d we provide an efficient algorithm to find the optimal assortment for a d level nested logit model with n products the algorithm runs in o d n log n time in the price optimization problem the goal is to find the revenue maximizing prices for the products when the assortment of offered products is fixed although the expected revenue is not concave in the product prices we develop an iterative algorithm that generates a sequence of prices converging to a stationary point numerical experiments show that our method converges faster than gradient based methods by many orders of magnitude in addition to providing solutions for the assortment and price optimization problems

private saving interest rates and liquidity constraints in ldcs recent evidence there is still considerable controversy about the interest rate responsiveness of private saving in developing countries this paper provides recent evidence based on individual country estimations for a sample of 16 countries the model used here follows the uler equation approach and includes rational and forward looking permanent income consumers together with liquidity constrained consumers overall for this sample of countries the results obtained in this paper offer new evidence of a low responsiveness of saving to changes in the interest rate my results also support a strong role of liquidity constraints in these countries