comparing risks by acceptance and rejection stochastic dominance is a partial order on risky assets gambles that is based on the uniform preference of all decision makers in an appropriate class for one gamble over another we modify this requirement first by taking into account the status quo given by the current wealth and the possibility of rejecting gambles and second by comparing rejections that are substantive i e uniform over wealth levels or over utilities this yields two new stochastic orders wealth uniform dominance and utility uniform dominance unlike stochastic dominance these two orders are complete any two gambles can be compared moreover they are equivalent to the orders induced by respectively the aumann serrano index of riskiness and the foster hart measure of riskiness

finding a maximum skewness portfolio a general solution to three moments portfolio choice considering the three first moments and allowing short sales the efficient portfolios set for n risky assets and a riskless one is found supposing that agents like odd moments and dislike even ones analytical formulas for the solution surface are obtained and important geometric properties provide insights on its shape in the three dimensional space defined by the moments a special duality result is needed and proved the methodology is general comprising situations in which for instance the investor trades a negative skewness for a higher expected return computation of the optimum portfolio weights is feasible in most cases

a large scale linear complementarity model of the north american natural gas market abstract the north american natural gas market has seen significant changes recently due to deregulation and restructuring for example third party marketers can contract for transportation and purchase of gas to sell to end users while the intent was a more competitive market the potential for market power exists we analyze this market using a linear complementarity equilibrium model including producers storage and peak gas operators third party marketers and four end use sectors the marketers are depicted as nash cournot players determining supply to meet end use consumption all other players are in perfect competition results based on national petroleum council scenarios are presented

the 6lucas critique a generalisation the extraordinarily influential lucas critique of various familiar econometric practices is generalized the intention though is not to argue against the possibility of economics as science but to hasten its widespread realization to this end it is argued that a quite significant change of direction in economic practice is warranted and an outline of a sustainable potentially fruitful alternative approach is indicated c 1995 academic press ltd copyright 1995 by oxford university press

self selection of emigrants theory and evidence on stochastic dominance in observable and unobservable characteristics the roy model has more precise predictions about the self selection of migrants than previously realised the conditions shown to result in positive or negative selection in terms of expected earnings also imply a stochastic dominance relationship between the earnings distributions of migrants and non migrants we test these predictions using the danish full population administrative data we find strong evidence of positive self selection of emigrants in terms of pre emigration earnings and residual earnings the income distribution for the migrants almost stochastically dominates the distribution for the non migrants decomposing the self selection in total earnings reveals that unobserved abilities play the dominant role

abstraction tendencies and stylised facts a realist approach to economic analysis in his numerous methodological asides and assertions that feature in his more empirically oriented postwar contributions nicholas kaldor makes frequent reference to notions of abstraction tendencies and stylized facts however the employment of such terms seems rarely to be explicitly questioned justified or explicated this paper argues that such notions can be readily explicated and their employment justified through adopting an explicitly realist approach to economic analysis it is also argued that realism represents a serious alternative to current orthodox approaches to economics without suffering from some of the latter s more obvious limitations copyright 1989 by oxford university press

negative moments risk aversion and stochastic dominance a simple moment ordering condition is shown to be necessary for stochastic dominance closely related results on generalizations of the geometric and harmonic means are also provided an ordering of the moment generating functions is shown to be necessary and sufficient for stochastic dominance the results have a straightforward and useful interpretation in terms of constant relative and absolute risk aversion utility functions these results are used to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality of distributions on an important class of utility functions

weighted discounting on group diversity time inconsistency and consequences for investment abstract this paper presents the class of weighted discount functions which contains the discount functions commonly used in economics and finance weighted discount functions may describe the discounting behavior of groups uncertainty about what discount rate to use present biased time preferences and all of these simultaneously as an application we study investment behavior under weighted discounting and come up with the following general result greater group diversity greater parameter uncertainty and more present biased time preferences lead to delayed investment or equivalently more risk taking

financialised internationalisation and structural hierarchies a mixed method study of exchange rate determination in emerging economies this paper conducts an extensive mixed method study of exchange rate determination in the brazilian foreign exchange market it combines semi structured interviews with foreign exchange market participants in brazil and london and advanced time series econometrics in line with post keynesian theory and critical realist ontology the interviews uncover the context specific expectations and underlying processes and structures that condition exchange rate dynamics in brazil and emerging economies more generally the results point to important structural changes in brazil s financial integration in the form of currency internationalisation and financialisation moreover they show that this internationalisation has been mediated through a structured and hierarchic international monetary system which fundamentally distinguishes exchange rate drivers in emerging economies from those in developed ones

aggregate structural macroeconomic analysis a reconsideration and defence aggregate structural macroeconomic analysis asma is frequently criticised for being ad hoc and justified if at all only as a pragmatic expedient this paper argues instead that asma is consistent with the principles of well established bodies of social theory appeal to these principles reveals that asma is adequate and likely even necessary for the successful prosecution of macroeconomic inquiry

deliverability and regional pricing in u s natural gas markets during the 1980s and early 90s interstate natural gas markets in the united states made a transition away from the regulation that characterized the previous three decades with abundant supplies and plentiful pipeline capacity a new order emerged in which freer markets and arbitrage closely linked natural gas price movements throughout the country after the mid 1990s however u s natural gas markets tightened and some pipelines were pushed to capacity we look for the pricing effects of limited arbitrage through causality testing between prices at nodes on the u s natural gas transportation system and interchange prices at regional nodes on north american electricity grids our tests do reveal limited arbitrage which is indicative of bottlenecks in the u s natural gas pipeline system

two moment decision models and expected utility maximization two moment decision models are consistent with expected utility maximization only if the choice set or the agent s preferences are restricted this paper identifies a restriction which is sufficient to ensure this consistency and confirms that it holds in many economic models the implications for economic analysis are then derived two different approaches to representing an agent s preferences over strategies yielding random payoffs are in wide use under the mean standard deviation ms approach the agent is assumed to rank the alternatives according to the value of some function defined over the first two moments of the random payoff while the expected utility eu criterion assumes that the expected value of some utility function defined over payoffs is used instead the fact that there are these two competing approaches has generated a considerable literature some authors are concerned with the advantages and disadvantages of each while others deal with conditions under which the potentially different approaches would yield the same results or at least approximately so space does not

mean gini portfolio theory and the pricing of risky assets this paper presents the mean gini mg approach to analyze risky prospects and construct optimum portfolios the proposed method has the simplicity of a mean variance model and the main features of stochastic dominance efficiency since mean gini is consistent with investor behavior under uncertainty for a wide class of probability distributions gini s mean difference is shown to be more adequate than the variance for evaluating the variability of a prospect the mg approach is then applied to capital markets and the security valuation theorem is derived as a general relationship between average return and risk this is further extended to include a degree of risk aversion that can be estimated from capital market data the analysis is concluded with the concentration ratio to allow for the classification of different securities with respect to their relative riskiness

a stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades abstract yen carry trades have made headline news for over a decade we examine the profitability of such trades for the period 2001 2009 yen carry trades generated high mean returns and sharpe ratios prior to the recent financial crisis they continued to outperform major stock markets for the full sample period given the non normality of carry trade returns we apply non parametric tests based on stochastic dominance sd to evaluate whether the high returns of yen carry trades are compatible with risk as reflected in returns on us and global stock market indices we apply a general test for sd developed recently by linton maasoumi and whang 2005 to six currencies as well as portfolios of these currencies for a large class of risk averse investors profits from yen carry trades cannot be attributed to risks

competition in gas markets abstract this paper discusses some of the current regulatory issues that arise in gas markets under perfect or imperfect competition it first presents a benchmark model of gas transportation pricing when all markets are competitive optimal prices and capacities are characterized both without and with a break even constraint for the transportation operator elaborating on this framework it then studies the appropriate dimensioning of the transportation network when an otherwise unregulated supplier exerts market power specifically it points to the possibility of building up excess transmission capacity in order to mitigate local market power

third degree stochastic dominance here f x and g x are less than cumulative probability distributionis where x is a continuous or discrete random variable representing the outcome of a prospect the closed interval a b is the sample space of both prospects the integral shown in rule 2 and those shown throughout the paper are stieltjes integrals recall that the stieltjes integral fb f x dg x exists if one of the functions f and g is continuous and the other has finite variation in a b let d1 d2 and d3 be three sets of utility functions x d1 is the set containing all utility functions with 4 x and 1 x continuous and 41 x 0 for all xe a b d2 is the set with x 1 x 2 x continuous and q j x 0 02 x o for all xc a b d3 is the set with x 1 x 2 x 3 x continuous and 1 x 04 2 x o o for all xc a b here 1 x denotes the ith derivative of x hadar and russell proved that rule 1 is valid for all cd1 and rutle 2 is valid for all ed2 the authors point out that the set of probability distributions that can be ordered by means of second degree stochastic dominance is in general larger than that which can be ordered by means of first degree stochastic dominance note that in rule 2 they assume that x is not only an increasing function of x but also exhibits weak global risk aversion a condition guaranteed by requiring the second derivative of x to be nonpositive in this paper a condition which will be called third degree stochastic dominance is considered it is based on the following assumption about the form of the utility function x from a normative point of view one expects the risk premium associated with an uncertain prospect to become smaller the greater is the individual s wealth the plausibility and implications of this assumption h ave been explored by john pratt as well as others the risk premium of an uncertain prospect is that amount by which the certainty equivalent of the prospect differs from its expected value in mathematical terms given the prospect f x with expected value a the corresponding risk premium t is obtained by solving the following equation rb

economies of scale and scope in expansion of the u s natural gas pipeline network abstract i analyze cost capacity mileage and technical data for 254 u s natural gas pipeline projects over the period 1997 2012 although project costs exhibit economies of scale over the capacity margin and economies of scope over the spatial margin network expansion costs may not exhibit cost economies overall that is proportional increases in both transmission capacity and length in miles may result in a proportional or even greater than proportional increase in expansion costs moreover large projects high capacity pipelines spanning long distances likely require installation of compression horsepower which has direct cost effects my results suggest such projects exhibit significant diseconomies in cost structure as a result pipeline tariffs based on cost of service pricing likely present a disincentive for prospective pipeline customers to commit to long term contracts which are necessary for the pipeline to acquire regulatory permission to build particularly for large long distance expansion projects the implication is that cost of service pricing may inhibit network expansion exacerbating congestion issues

nonconvex equilibrium models for gas market analysis failure of standard techniques and alternative modeling approaches abstract this paper provides a first approach to assess gas market interaction on a network with nonconvex flow models in the simplest possible setup that adequately reflects gas transport and market interaction we elaborate on the relation of the solution of a simultaneous competitive gas market game its corresponding mixed nonlinear complementarity problem mncp and a first best benchmark we provide conditions under which the solution of the simultaneous game is also the solution of the corresponding mncp however equilibria cannot be determined by the mncp as the transmission system operator s tso s first order conditions are insufficient which goes back to nonconvexities of the gas flow model this also implies that the welfare maximization problem may have multiple solutions that sometimes do not even coincide with any of the market equilibria our analysis shows that even in the absence of strategic firms market interaction fails to implement desirable outcomes from a welfare perspective due to the tso s incentive structure we conclude that the technical environment calls for a market design that commits the tso to a welfare objective through regulation and propose a design where the market solution corresponds to a welfare maximum and vice versa

a note on almost stochastic dominance abstract both the expected utility maximization and the hierarchy property are very important properties in stochastic dominance for almost stochastic dominance leshno and levy 2002 propose a definition and tzeng et al 2013 modified it to give another definition this note provides more information on the two definitions the former has the hierarchy property but not the expected utility maximization whereas the latter has the expected utility maximization but not the hierarchy property

portfolio selection in multidimensional general and partial moment space abstract this paper develops a general approach for the single period portfolio optimization problem in a multidimensional general and partial moment space a shortage function is defined that looks for possible increases in odd moments and decreases in even moments a main result is that this shortage function ensures sufficient conditions for global optimality it also forms a natural basis for developing tests on the influence of additional moments furthermore a link is made with an approximation of an arbitrary order of a general indirect utility function this non parametric efficiency measurement framework permits to differentiate mainly between portfolio efficiency and allocative efficiency finally information can in principle be inferred about the revealed risk aversion prudence temperance and other higher order risk characteristics of investors

stochastic dominance analysis without the independence axiom we characterize the consistency of a large class of nonexpected utility preferences including mean variance preferences and prospect theory preferences with stochastic orders for example stochastic dominances of different degrees our characterization rests on a novel decision theoretic result that provides a behavioral interpretation of the set of all derivatives of the functional representing the decision maker s preferences as an illustration we consider in some detail prospect theory and choice acclimating preferences two popular models of reference dependence under risk and we show the incompatibility of loss aversion with prudence this paper was accepted by james smith decision analysis

the new classical macroeconomics comprises articles published between 1972 and 1992 on new classical macroeconomics it starts by examining the rational expectations hypothesis and the application of general equilibrium to labour markets and continues with various arguments for the ineffectiveness of government policy

an empirical comparison of stochastic dominance among lognormal prospects l introduct ion the theory of portfolio selection and diversification developed by markowitz 22 and tobin 33 was based primarily on the criterion of meanvariance mv efficiency the objective was to select an efficient set of portfolios from which every risk averter will choose the optimal portfolio which maximizes his expected utility the mv criterion is the appropriate rule either for the case in which the utility function is quadratic or if the returns are normally distributed and risk aversion is assumed two approaches to the choice among risky alternatives that have been developed independently over the past two decades are the geometric mean criterion gm and the stochastic dominance sd decision model both can be justified by the expected utility hypothesis with the geometric mean cri terion following as a result of the assumption that the decision maker has a logarithmic utility function and the stochastic dominance models requiring the less restrictive assumption of signs of the first few derivatives of the decision maker s utility function this paper compares the concept of ordinary stochastic dominance to stochastic dominance of the lognormally distributed prospects from an empirical point of view further 1ight is also shed on the issue of applying the markowitz tobin mean variance rule