defining chronic poverty comparing different approaches in this study we discuss two methods commonly used in the literature to measure chronic poverty the permanent income approach where the chronically poor are those whose mean income over time is below the poverty line and the spells approach where the chronically poor are those households who are below the poverty line half of the time or more we check the differences between these two methods considering also several household characteristics the index we use is that of foster greer and thorbecke fgt with and when each method identifies the chronically poor which could be different individuals by each method and shows the percentage of the chronically poor while when the methods also take into account the depth of poverty our main goal is to show the differences between the two methods so that policymakers would have different perspectives on the problem of chronic poverty and could make decisions on this basis the results show that in the data used the permanent method and the spells

biofuels what a biopact between north and south could achieve abstract with very few exceptions such as the recent remarks by international energy agency iea head claude mandil commentators on the world s energy issues have yet to recognize the enormous contribution that biofuels producers from the south could make to solving the world s greenhouse gas emission problems and problems to do with the peaking of oil supplies once the equation between biofuels and high cost land intensive cultivation in the north is broken and a quite different scenario involving production in the south is adopted then the possibilities are dramatically changed the argument of this paper is that a transition to substitution of 20 percent of oecd gasoline needs by 2020 could be met from the south by creating the equivalent of 18 brazils over the course of the next decade such an enormous transition will not occur by itself or through the operation of market forces alone it needs an institutional framework one that guarantees for the countries of the north regular supplies of biofuels produced in a responsible manner and guarantees for the countries of the south open markets for the biofuels produced the oecd is in the best position to bring about such an arrangement through taking the initiative of offering developing countries a biopact between north and south thereby creating for the first time a global market for biofuels the launch of an international biofuels forum under the auspices of the un in early 2007 is a step towards the creation of such an international framework where north south issues on biofuels may be fruitfully addressed

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

measuring lifetime poverty abstract this paper presents an axiomatic framework for measuring lifetime poverty over multiple periods for an individual we argue that lifetime poverty is influenced by both the snapshot poverty of each period and the poverty level of the permanent lifetime consumption it is also influenced by how poverty spells are distributed over the lifetime we axiomatically characterize classes of lifetime poverty indices and derive dominance conditions of poverty orderings for both individual and societal lifetime poverty measurements

consumption vulnerability to risk in rural pakistan abstract as one of the dimensions of vulnerability this paper empirically investigates the inability of rural dwellers to cope with negative income shocks a variable coefficient regression model is applied to a two period household panel dataset collected in the north west frontier province pakistan an area with high incidence of income poverty and low human development the empirical model allows for a different ability to smooth consumption approximated by a linear function of households attributes and controls for the endogeneity of observed changes in income using qualitative information on subjective risk assessment estimation results show that the ability to cope with negative income shocks is lower for households that are aged landless and do not receive remittances regularly

a first empirical comparison of energy footprints embodied in trade mrio versus plum abstract the ecological footprint as an indicator that accounts for human demand on global bioproductivity sets out to quantify the impacts associated with consumption in a given country including the impacts associated with trade the national footprint accounts nfa by global footprint network gfn calculate trade embodied footprints by multiplying yield and embodied energy factors with mass volumes of traded goods in a product land use matrix plum this article compares energy footprints embodied in trade from and to the united kingdom in 2002 as calculated by the nfa plum with the results from a recently developed multi region input output model mrio for the uk although totals for imports and exports are comparable breaking down the results by economic sectors reveals large differences and hardly any correlation between the two methods the omission of trade in services especially transport services and upstream impacts of energy goods fossil fuels and the use of inappropriate embodied energy factors in the nfa plum method are identified as the main reasons for these differences in the light of the results it seems that a comprehensive footprint account of trade can better be achieved with an input output based approach i conclude that mrio models once fully developed will be particularly suitable in the future to estimate the ecological footprints of imports and exports of nations with the possibility to track their origin via inter industry linkages international supply chains and multi national trade flows

forests fuelwood and livelihoods energy transition patterns in eastern indonesia the central thesis of the energy ladder model is a unidirectional transition from primitive to advance fuel with increased affluence of households although now largely discredited this assumption remains a foundation of laissez faire policies that anticipate energy transition resulting spontaneous forest recovery with economic development our results suggest that such policies can undermine broader policy objectives and actually worsen forest conditions in rural indonesia based on a case study of forest margin communities in eastern indonesia we demonstrate that fuel subsidy reform did little to reduce rural household demand for fuelwood while dramatically increasing fuelwood demand for processing agricultural products our results show how household decisions related to fuel sources are affected by non economic considerations and external factors such as opportunities to sell fuelwood we argue that policy interventions that encourage energy transition of households do not necessarily improve forest conditions as household fuelwood use may be a symptom rather than a driver of deforestation and forest degradation thus policies to improve forest conditions should focus more on addressing the market environment of forest margin communities providing energy alternatives to small industries that are often the larger consumers of fuelwood

changes in the u s wage structure 1963 1987 application of quantile regression the 1980 s witnessed rapid changes in the structure of wages in the united states in this study recently developed techniques for quantile regression are applied to every march current population survey since 1964 and changes in the return to schooling and experience at different points of the wage distribution are examined the quantile regression technique parsimoniously describes the entire conditional wage distribution this conditional distribution is used to examine changes in within group wage inequality as measured by the difference between conditional quantiles two linear models are considered a simple one group model and a 16 group model the results suggest that the returns to schooling and experience differ across quantiles of the wage distribution but their patterns of change are similar significant differences in wage inequality are also found across the various skill groups the paper also presents a new imputation method for cps data

determinants of income mobility and household poverty dynamics in south africa this article analyses household income mobility among africans in south africa s most populous province kwazulu natal between 1993 and 1998 compared to industrialised and most developing countries mobility has been quite high as might have been expected after the transition in south africa this finding is robust when measurement error is controlled for when disaggregating the sources of mobility it is found that demographic changes and employment changes account for most of the mobility observed which is related to rapidly shifting household boundaries and a very volatile labour market in an environment of high unemployment using a multivariate analysis it can be seen that transitory incomes play a large role four types of poverty traps are found associated with large initial household size poor initial education poor initial asset endowment and poor initial employment access that dominate the otherwise observed regression towards the mean

geographies of energy transition space place and the low carbon economy this paper makes a case for examining energy transition as a geographical process involving the reconfiguration of current patterns and scales of economic and social activity the paper draws on a seminar series on the geographies of energy transition security climate governance hosted by the authors between 2009 and 2011 which initiated a dialogue between energy studies and the discipline of human geography focussing on the uk government s policy for a low carbon transition the paper provides a conceptual language with which to describe and assess the geographical implications of a transition towards low carbon energy six concepts are introduced and explained location landscape territoriality spatial differentiation scaling and spatial embeddedness examples illustrate how the geographies of a future low carbon economy are not yet determined and that a range of divergent and contending potential geographical futures are in play more attention to the spaces and places that transition to a low carbon economy will produce can help better understand what living in a low carbon economy will be like it also provides a way to help evaluate the choices and pathways available

assessing the extent and nature of chronic poverty in low income countries issues and evidence discussions of chronic poverty have mostly considered its monetary dimensions with current evidence suggesting that such poverty is much more transient than chronic but chronic poverty is a real and important phenomenon potentially more important quantitatively than it first appears once account is taken of different methodological approaches and inevitable measurement difficulties the chronic poor have distinctive characteristics such as lack of assets or high dependency rates which may account for their persistent poverty the paper argues that it is also necessary to develop concepts of chronic poverty further covering relevant nonmonetary dimensions and not just relying on panel data

rural livelihood diversification in sub saharan africa a literature review abstractthis article provides a comprehensive review of the literature on the nature and evolution of rural livelihood diversification in sub saharan africa and the situation regarding smallholders it reveals mixed findings about the causes and consequences of livelihood diversification on rural smallholders adopting this strategy a lot of evidence from the literature suggests that it is relatively better off smallholders with sufficient assets who achieve successful livelihood diversification mainly by exploiting opportunities and synergies between farm and nonfarm activities because of asset constraints increase in incomes and wealth based on livelihood diversification has not yet benefitted the large majority of smallholders

multidimensional poverty in crisis lessons from zimbabwe abstractzimbabwe experienced an acute social political and economic crisis from 2001 to 2008 and is now on a recovery path this paper explores changes in poverty between 2001 2007 and 2011 2012 using an alkire foster multidimensional poverty index results indicate a large increase in poverty across multiple dimensions of household wellbeing between 2001 and 2007 the start of the crisis peak followed by a decrease in poverty between 2007 and 2011 2012 during the recovery period decomposition of the index shows significantly different trends in poverty dimensions over time with implications for short and long term social assistance policies

a world away and close to home the multi scalar making of indonesia s energy landscape abstract indonesia is the world s largest producer of palm oil a feedstock for agrofuels and an important source of direct nutritional energy for human consumption the country is also an important global supplier of coal petroleum and natural gas while per capita fossil energy consumption is relatively low for biomass and fossil fuel based energy indonesia has been transforming its energy landscape in order to provide for foreign demand the landscape both in literal and in the figurative sense simultaneously forms and is formed by the material resource flows required for society s biophysical reproduction i e the social metabolism in the context of the ongoing energy transition both are subject to change in our analysis of indonesia s palm oil production we find that the drivers shaping the country s resource use as well as its energy landscape are located at a spatial temporal and functional distance from where they take effect the energy landscape and resource use patterns are formed across levels of scale from the subnational to the global energy policy confined to the framework of the sovereign nation state cannot effectively address the complex drivers of increasingly detrimental environmental change associated with energy transitions nor can it trigger a sustainability transition

swimming upstream local indonesian production networks in globalized palm oil production summary when agricultural commodities in developing countries experience an economic boom they offer potential pathways out of poverty while creating environmental and social problems while recent research provides insights into the governance of international supply chains it provides less analysis of the local production networks creating critical problems indonesia is now the world s largest exporter of crude palm oil this paper analyses processes of oil palm development in three oil palm districts it considers how policy models regime interests and agribusiness strategies shape local production networks generate local outcomes and affect the possibilities of tackling issues associated with this boom

wealth weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments despite the growing evidence that farmers in low income environments are risk averse there has been little empirical evidence on the importance of risk in shaping the actual allocation of production resources among farmers differentiated by wealth the authors use panel data on investments in rural india to examine how the composition of productive and nonproductive asset holdings varies across farmers with different levels of total wealth and across farmers facing different degrees of weather risk income variability is a prominent feature of the experience of rural agents in low income countries the authors report evidence based on measures of rainfall variability that the agricultural investment portfolio behavior of farmers in such settings reflects risk aversion due evidently to limitations on consumption soothing mechanisms such as crop insurance or credit markets the authors results suggest that uninsured weather risk is a significant cause of lower efficiency and lower average incomes a one standard deviation decrease in weather risk measured by the standard deviation of the timing of the rainy season would raise average profits by up to 35 percent among farmers in the lowest wealth quartile moreover rainfall variability induces a more unequal distribution of average incomes for a given distribution of wealth wealthier farmers are willing to absorb significant risk without giving up profits to reduce production risk smaller farmers have to invest their limited wealth in ways that reduce their exposure to risk at the cost of lower profit rates the authors found that at high levels of rainfall variability differences in rates of profit per unit of agricultural assets were similar across classes of wealth but over the sample range of rainfall variability these rates of profit were always higher for the poorer farmers than for the wealthier ones suggesting that the disadvantages of small farmers in risk diffusion are more than offset by their labor cost advantage

adverse incorporation and microfinance among cross border traders in senegal summary this paper highlights the relevance of adverse incorporation as a neglected theoretical approach to debates on microfinance through a case study of cross border traders in senegal although women s organizations do not exclude even the poorest women traders in remote areas were unable to access credit due to particularly harsh standards of joint liability and adverse relations with donors lenders and elite women meanwhile the peer monitoring function of group microcredit schemes is challenged by the fact that traders are strikingly uncritical of defaulting borrowers findings highlight the detrimental consequences of donors misconceptions regarding women s organizations and economic activities

understanding the political economy and key drivers of energy access in addressing national energy access priorities and policies abstract globally 1 5 billion people lack access to electricity and nearly 3 billion lack access to modern cooking energy options of the world s energy poor 95 are in asia and sub saharan africa within asia almost 80 of electricity deprived and 86 of biomass dependent populations are in the big 5 countries bangladesh china india indonesia and pakistan in this paper we discuss the broad contours of the political economy of energy access in these countries the political economy is assessed through an examination of three sustainability objectives accessibility of physical infrastructure energy service delivery and conformance to social goals the key areas of concern include emphasis on supply driven grid electricity vested power dynamics favouring affluent and urban areas unreliability of energy service provision and misdirected and misappropriated subsidies the above mentioned issues are responsible for limiting accelerated achievement of universal energy access in the big 5 countries and need to be addressed through innovative approaches the paper emphasizes the need for firm commitments policy convergence and the implementation of pro poor equitable energy policies through a broad based energy framework of bench marked technology neutral energy provisioning that ensures reliability and equity it highlights the need for reorienting of the subsidy regime and incorporating energy service delivery indicators in monitoring and reporting mechanisms

growth inequality and poverty looking beyond averages the evidence is compelling that the poor in developing countries do typically share in the gains from rising aggregate affluence and in the losses from aggregate contraction but how much do poor people share in growth do they gain more in some settings than others do some gain while others lose does pro poor growth mean more or less aggregate growth recent theories and evidence suggest some answers but deeper microeconomic empirical work is needed on growth and distributed change only then will we have a firm basis for identifying the specific policies and programs needed to complement and possibly modify growth oriented policies

technology adoption in the presence of network externalities we analyze technology adoption in industries where network externalities are significant the pattern of adoption depends on whether technologies are sponsored a sponsor is an entity that has property rights to the technology and hence is willing to make investments to promote it key findings include the following 1 compatibility tends to be undersupplied by the market but excessive standardization can occur 2 in the absence of sponsors the technology superior today has a strategic advantage and is likely to dominate the market 3 when one of two rival technologies is sponsored that technology has a strategic advantage and may be adopted even if it is inferior 4 when two competing technologies both are sponsored the technology that will be superior tomorrow has a strategic advantage

expected poverty under risk induced welfare variability two of the most widely accepted stylised facts about agriculture in south asia sub saharan africa and elsewhere are that income is highly uncertain from one year to another and that deep and widespread poverty exists and yet there has been very little analysis of the joint problems of poverty and risk this paper offers a methodological approach to the issue of how risk affects poverty and applies it to household level data for dry areas of rural india the following questions are addressed under what conditions can one expect an increase in the riskiness of an income or consumption stream to increase poverty how should one measure the contribution of risk to poverty and what long term benefits in terms of reduced poverty can be expected from policies aimed at stabilising incomes of the poor such policies have been widely discussed in the indian subcontinent of late and their effect on rural

is transient poverty different evidence for rural china we define transient poverty as the component of time mean consumption poverty at household level that is directly attributable to variability in consumption this can be thought of as a measure of vulnerability to falling consumption the non transient component then depends solely on mean consumption over time and we call this chronic poverty using robust semi parametric methods and household panel data for rural china we test whether transient poverty is determined by a process that is similar to chronic poverty commonly identified causes of poverty in this setting have weak explanatory power for transient poverty and some of the factors determining transient poverty do not matter to chronic poverty or even have the opposite effect successful policy responses to chronic poverty may still leave considerable transient poverty

managing the energy trilemma the case of indonesia abstract this article argues that a central challenge for energy governance is how to manage a complex energy trilemma involving the sometimes competing demands of energy security climate change mitigation and particularly in developing countries energy poverty it suggests that tensions between the horns of the trilemma in large part explain indonesia s current profoundly suboptimal energy policy while these tensions are not inherently incapable of resolution such resolution would require good governance at both state and global levels the possibilities for and obstacles confronting such governance are explored and provisional solutions canvassed

geographical targeting for poverty alleviation an introduction to the special issue in the face of rising public deficits and shrinking public resources geographical targeting may be a viable way to allocate resources for poverty alleviation in developing countries efficiency can be increased and leakage to the non poor reduced substantially by targeting increasingly smaller areas this article and more generally the symposium on geographical targeting for poverty alleviation proposes several techniques for augmenting data to produce more detailed poverty maps it focuses on practical considerations in the design of geographically targeted poverty alleviation programs in particular it assesses the advantages and disadvantages of geographical targeting and describes how geographic information systems can be applied to improve poverty mapping

in the eye of the storm the welfare impacts of a hurricane summary the impact of a large covariant shock namely hurricane mitch is examined in the context of household asset holdings in rural nicaragua utilizing household panel data from the period it is found that the hurricane did not have an adverse impact on the ownership of productive assets among the affected households on average on the other hand nonproductive asset holdings seem to have been significantly reduced a further examination confirms that the shock affected the poorest households disproportionally especially in terms of nonproductive assets finally this study presents strong suggestive evidence of a geographical poverty trap within the shock affected areas of the country

poverty transition and persistence in ethiopia 1994 2004 summary this study analyzes the persistence of poverty in both rural and urban areas in ethiopia during 1994 2004 the key finding is that households move frequently in and out of poverty but the difficulty of exiting from poverty like the chance of avoiding slipping back increases with the time spent in that state and varies considerably between male and female headed households our results imply that it is important to design anti poverty policies both to hinder households from slipping into extreme poverty and to minimize the length of the poverty spell for households once they have fallen into it

new technology based firms in innovation networks symplectic and generative impacts abstract the traditional body of research on new technology based firms reflects the linear sequential view of the technological innovation process the modern innovation theory views the innovation process as a complex interative process that is essentially systemic in character the systemic view of the technological innovation process largely remains to be implemented in research on new technology based firms the present study represents an attempt to bridge this gap by applying a systemic approach to research on new technology based firms the empirical part of the present study develops and empirically tests a model that classifies new technology based firms into science based firms and engineering based firms the two categories are defined in terms of the functional relationship between the new technology based firm and the articulation process of basic technologies in the model new technology based firms are analyzed in terms of the systemic knowledge conversion process to which they are attached the model receives support in three empirical databases compiled among new technology based firms in finland the united kingdom and silicon valley the analysis of the silicon valley database is the first ever systematic survey of the spin off firms of stanford university

identifying vulnerability to poverty a critical survey in the economic literature on poverty various methods have been proposed for measuring a phenomenon known as vulnerability however after more than a quarter century of research no consensus has been reached on how to identify such vulnerable individuals within a given population some misunderstandings have also arisen from the overlapping of other closely related concepts such as the expectation of being poor expected poverty multi period poverty and risk exposure this paper offers a detailed conceptual discussion on vulnerability to poverty and its related elements reviewing a wide range of identifying criteria provided in the literature it is found that according to the state of the art in this field of research two key elements stand out in identifying vulnerable individuals an expected well being below the poverty line and a relevant risk of falling into poverty due to downside deviation from a reference level of well being the traditional classification of vulnerability approaches has been updated into four groups i those that stress the element of exposure to risk ii those that emphasize the element of expected poverty iii those that define vulnerability through a utility gap and iv those that are supported by a mean risk dominance criterion

are the poor less well insured evidence on vulnerability to income risk in rural china the authors test how well consumption is insured against income risk in a panel of sampled households in rural china they estimate the risk insurance models by generalized method of moments treating income and household size as endogenous insurance exists for all wealth groups although the hypothesis of perfect insurance is universally rejected those in the poorest wealth decile are the least well insured with 40 percent of an income shock being passed on to current consumption by contrast consumption by the richest third of households is protected from almost 90 percent of an income shock the extent of insurance in a given wealth stratum varies little between poor and nonpoor areas

ten years of q squared implications for understanding and explaining poverty summary over the past decade there have been a number of initiatives to promote a more systematic integration of quantitative and qualitative or q squared approaches to poverty analysis in the global south and a large body of literature had emerged the objective of the article is to present a selective review of this empirical work with a view to demonstrate the value it has added for understanding and explaining poverty the evidence strongly suggests that q squared approaches have aided our understanding of the characteristics of the poor and the causes of poverty

how access to irrigation influences poverty and livelihoods a case study from sri lanka abstractthis study combines a livelihoods approach with a regression approach to quantify the effectiveness of irrigation infrastructure investment on improving people s livelihood strategies using a unique dataset based on households in southern sri lanka and a natural experimental setting we estimate from a two stage income regression model to show that irrigation access has a positive effect on income through livelihood choices we also show through qualitative approaches that factors not linked to irrigation infrastructure may contribute to changes in livelihood portfolios in addition we highlight factors that result in certain households being unable to move out of poverty despite access to the improved irrigation infrastructure

livelihoods and chronic poverty in semi arid zimbabwe abstract remoteness and geographic natural physical human and social capital are contrasted with social and political exclusion in explaining persistent rural poverty we found that persistent poverty was strongly associated with the structural poverty of zimbabwe s semi arid communal areas relative urban proximity assisted income diversification and improvement in a very poor socially and politically excluded area less excluded but remote areas remained poor but not as poor as the excluded population livelihoods changed and diversified more in the nonremote area speeding poverty reduction as measured by an index of perceived change we conclude with what policy options and sequence might support the inclusion of chronically poor people

household strategies and rural livelihood diversification this article reviews the recent literature on diversification as a livelihood strategy of rural households in developing countries with particular reference to sub saharan africa livelihood diversification is defined as the process by which rural families construct a diverse portfolio of activities and social support capabilities in order to survive and to improve their standards of living the determinants and effects of diversification in the areas of poverty income distribution farm output and gender are examined some policy inferences are summarised the conclusion is reached that removal of constraints to and expansion of opportunities for diversification are desirable policy objectives because they give individuals and households more capabilities to improve livelihood security and to raise living standards

is your firm a creative destroyer competitive learning and knowledge flows in the technological strategies of firms abstract a firm s technology strategy can be described either as a war of position or a war of movement the first kind of strategy leads the firm to hoard its technological assets in an attempt to defy the equilibrating action of market forces neoclassical or n learning the second pushes for a selective diffusion of its technological assets that will move it beyond market equilibrium and towards new opportunities schumpeterian or s learning using boisot s 1986 culture space as an analytical tool the paper explores the difference between n and s learning and how they each affect a firm s technological prospects

are workers close to cities paid higher nonagricultural wages in rural china in the present study we investigate whether workers close to cities are paid higher non agricultural wages than workers in outlying rural areas we find that workers close to urban areas not only benefit from more opportunities to engage in non agricultural activities but also from better paid jobs in addition distance exhibits a strongly nonlinear impact distance always has a negative impact on wages but the effect is more detrimental the closer the village is to the urban center we also find evidence of urban hierarchy effects workers living close to bigger cities are paid higher wages finally we provide evidence on the transmission channels at work

poverty dynamics in brazilian metropolitan areas an analysis based on hulme and shepherd s categorization 2002 2011 abstract ever more sophisticated studies on the methodological approach and the conceptual scope of poverty have led to a consensus among scholars on the dynamic characteristic of this phenomenon in other words the existence of an in and out of privation movement of individuals and families within this context hulme and shepherd 2003 defined five groups according to the location of the punctual and average indicators of poverty vis a vis the poverty line this paper s objective is to adapt this typology to brazil using pme monthly job survey micro data for the 2002 2011 timeframe and the six brazilian metropolitan regions covered by pme as well as by estimating a multinomial logit investigate which family characteristics relate to a greater or lesser chance of belonging to each of the chronic and transitory poverty categories categorization allows observation that despite a sweeping across the board decline in the percentage of families in all poverty categories in the past decade those families always or usually poor display demographic socioeconomic access to and insertion into the labor market categories which differ from families in transitory poverty or classified as never poor moreover northeastern metropolitan regions salvador and recife have higher percentages of chronic or transitory poverty multinomial logit estimates make it possible to verify that families whose members have completed secondary schooling or college or hold a higher qualified occupation stand lesser chances of entering into or remaining in poverty results call for differentiating among poor families as they enter into or leave poverty which is tantamount to saying that the dynamics of poverty must be taken into account as public policies are drawn up