a review of the recent empirical literature on displaced workers this article reviews the empirical literature on job displacement job displacement is widespread and strongly countercyclical tending to peak during economic downturns but concentrated in indus

learning and wage dynamics we develop a dynamic model of learning about worker ability in a competitive labor market the model produces three testable implications regarding wage dynamics 1 although the role of schooling in the labor market s inference process declines as performance observations accumulate the estimated effect of schooling on the level of wages is independent of labor market experience 2 timeinvariant variables correlated with ability but unobserved by employers such as certain test scores are increasingly correlated with wages as experience increases and 3 wage residuals are a martingale we present evidence from the nlsy that is broadly consistent with the model s predictions

the persistent effects of initial labor market conditions for young adults and their sources unlucky young workers entering the labor market in recessions suffer a range of medium to long term consequences this paper summarizes the findings of the growing empirical literature on this subject and uses it to assess economic models of career development the literature finds large initial effects on earnings labor supply and wages that tend to fade after ten to fifteen years in the labor market and that are accompanied by changes in occupation job mobility and employer characteristics adverse initial labor market entry also has persistent effects on a range of social outcomes including timing and completed fertility marriage and divorce criminal activities attitudes and risky alcohol consumption there is also evidence that early exposure to depressed labor market lowers health and raises mortality in middle age patterns accompanied by a reopening of earnings gaps

a simple framework for international monetary policy analysis abstract we study the international monetary policy design problem within an optimizing two country sticky price model where each country faces a short run tradeoff between output and inflation the model is sufficiently tractable to solve analytically we find that in the nash equilibrium the policy problem for each central bank is isomorphic to the one it would face if it were a closed economy gains from cooperation arise however that stem from the impact of foreign economic activity on the domestic marginal cost of production while under nash central banks need only adjust the interest rate in response to domestic inflation under cooperation they should respond to foreign inflation as well in either scenario flexible exchange rates are desirable

the predictive content of the output gap for inflation resolving in sample and out of sample evidence this paper evaluates potential explanations for the sometimes poor forecasting performance of the phillips curve one explanation is that out of sample metrics are noisy or equivalently have relatively low power another potential explanation is instability in the coefficients of the model to assess these forces this paper compares sample forecasting results to results from bootstrap simulations of models that either assume stability or allow breaks in the coefficients of the model this analysis indicates that a significant portion of the weakness of the out of sample evidence is attributable to power limitations but instabilities in the coefficients on the output gap also play a role

heterogeneous wage effects of apprenticeship training the relatively small average wage effects of employer and occupation changes after apprenticeship training mask large differences between occupation groups and apprentices with different schooling backgrounds people who change employer and occupation within industrial occupations enjoy large wage advantages whereas apprentices in commerce and trading occupations as well as in construction and crafts occupations face wage losses from an occupation change the differences between the firms that provide the apprenticeship training are found to be small or insignificant in this paper we reconcile the differences between previous findings by comparing and replicating the empirical estimation strategies used this demonstrates that selectivity in occupations and changes unobserved heterogeneity between occupations and sample selection do matter

the school to work transition a cross national perspective school to work patterns and issues are discussed for seven economies france germany japan the netherlands sweden the united kingdom and the united states the emphasis is placed on differences across countries in the current labor market position of young people and recent trends therein along with the institutions that regulate youth education training and employment the power of public policies including labor market deregulation labor market programs vocationalization of education and apprenticeship to improve youth outcomes is discussed drawing on national evaluation literatures evidence of extensive policy failure points up the need to develop nationally appropriate institutions to improve school to work transitions

the long term costs of job displacement for young adult workers using nlsy data the authors estimate the long term costs of job displacement for young adults earnings and wage losses were large for the first three years following displacement compared to earnings losses found by other studies for more mature workers however earnings losses for these young adults were short lived with differences between observed and expected earnings narrowing considerably five years after job loss at that point the shortfall in annual earnings relative to what would have been expected absent job loss was 9 for men and 12 5 for women and the shortfall in hourly wages was 21 2 for men young workers also apparently differ from more established workers in the composition of total earnings losses for older workers total losses largely represent actual immediate earnings losses whereas for young workers the loss of opportunities for rapid earnings growth is more important

why has u s inflation become harder to forecast we examine whether the u s rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and to the extent that it has what changes in the inflation process have made it so the main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend cycle model with stochastic volatility or equivalently an integrated moving average process with time varying parameters this model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles and begins to explain some multivariate inflation forecasting puzzles as well

long term consequences of short term precipitation shocks evidence from brazilian migrant households we find that large short term precipitation shocks damage the long term income of households that have permanently migrated from rural to urban areas this outcome is consistent with the behavior of credit constrained rural households who are willing to accept lower long term income in urban areas following the depletion of their productive assets during an adverse shock our empirical evidence suggests that there may be a link between large precipitation shocks in rural areas and urban poverty further exploration is warranted on the mechanisms by which natural disasters cause these long term losses

earnings losses and unemployment of displaced workers in germany data from the german socio economic panel are used to examine the experiences of german workers following job displacement due to plant closure in the year of displacement annual earnings decline

plant level employment development before collective displacements comparing mass layoffs plant closures and bankruptcies this article analyzes the development of employment levels and worker flows before bankruptcies plant closure without bankruptcies and mass layoffs utilizing administrative plant level data for g

comparative advantage learning and sectoral wage determination we develop a model in which a worker s skills determine the worker s current wage and sector the market and the worker are initially uncertain about some of the worker s skills endogenous wage changes and sector mobility occur as labor market participants learn about these unobserved skills we show how the model can be estimated using nonlinear instrumental variables techniques we apply our methodology to study wages and allocation of workers across occupations and industries using individual level panel data from the national longitudinal survey of youth we find that high wage sectors employ high skill workers and offer high returns to workers skills

returns to apprenticeship training in austria evidence from failed firms in the german speaking countries little is known about the payoffs to apprenticeship training for the participants ols estimates suggest that the returns are similar to those of other types of schooling however there is considerable heterogeneity in the quality of apprenticeships offered and institutional descriptions suggest that there might be an important element of selection in who obtains an apprenticeship and what type in order to overcome the resulting ability bias we estimate returns to apprenticeship training for apprentices in small austrian firms which cease to operate when a firm fails current apprentices cannot complete their training in this firm since apprentices will be at different stages in their apprenticeship at that time the failure of a firm will manipulate the length of the apprenticeship period completed for some apprentices the time to firm failure can therefore serve as an instrument for the length of the apprenticeship completed both at the original firm and at other firms we find instrumental variables returns which are similar or larger than the ols returns in our sample indicating relatively little selection

task specific human capital since gary becker s 1964 seminal work the theoretical and empirical literature on human capital has focused almost exclusively on general purpose and firm specific human capital in this paper we discuss the implications of a third type of human capital which we call task specific and which we believe is potentially as commonplace and as important as the two classic types by task specific human capital we mean that some of the human capital an individual acquires on the job is specific to the tasks being performed as opposed to being specific to the firm in other words task specific human capital is the simple but plausible idea that much of the human capital accumulated on the job is due to task specific learning by doing the idea of task specific human capital is closely related to occupationand industryspecific human capital in each case human capital is specific to the nature of the work not specific to the firm hence when capital is accumulated multiple firms value the capital so most or even all of the value of the capital will be reflected in the worker s wage the main difference between the idea of task specific human capital and occupationand industryspecific human capital is in how the idea is applied we argue that task specific human capital has much wider applicability than suggested so far by the occupationand industry specific human capital literatures the specific issues we address are cohort effects job design and promotions another argument in the literature closely related to ours is the classic argument of adam smith 1776 in the wealth of nations concerning returns to specialization smith s argument was that due to learning by doing at the level of the task productivity can be enhanced by having each job entail fewer tasks we believe that smith was correct in focusing on learningby doing at the level of the task as an important idea for thinking about organizations the goal of our paper is to describe some of the other implications of this idea for the design and operation of organizations

when credit bites back using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle relative to typical recessions financial crisis recessions are costlier and more credit intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions in financial crises or otherwise and slower recoveries we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macro economic controls to study how past credit accumulation impacts key macro economic variables such as output investment lending interest rates and inflation the facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle

an econometric view on the estimation of gravity models and the calculation of trade potentials this paper presents an ar 1 model in the spirit of hausman and taylor zero differences between actual and in sample predicted trade flows large systematic differences between observed and in sample predicted trade flows only indicate model misspecification and econometric problems out of sample predictions make sense if countries of interest are in an early stage of the transformation process the gravity model remains an interesting tool for the calculation of counterfactuals e g the impact of catching up in gdp per capita in the ceec or of the reduction of trade costs via infrastructure investments or tariffs on bilateral trade etc for this line of research the difference between short term and long term influences could provide interesting insights

understanding global liquidity abstract we explore the concept of global liquidity based on a factor model estimated using a large set of financial and macroeconomic variables from 24 advanced and emerging market economies we measure global liquidity conditions based on the common global factors in the dynamics of liquidity indicators by imposing theoretically motivated sign restrictions on factor loadings we achieve a structural identification of the factors the results suggest that global liquidity conditions are largely driven by three common factors and can therefore not be summarised by a single indicator these three factors can be identified as global monetary policy global credit supply and global credit demand

disentangling market access effects of preferential trading arrangements with an application for asean members under an asean eu fta the paper develops two synthetic measures at the hs 10 level to depict effective market access for a country receiving preferential access and applies these to the market access asean members would receive following the implementation of an fta with the eu first the measures show that current effective market access for asean eba members is cut in half by the preferences granted by the eu to countries that compete with these countries in the eu markets second the measures show that about one quarter of the preferential margin under the proposed fta for eba members would be lost as a result of preferential access granted to asean gsp members third disaggregated estimates of the restrictiveness of rules of origin confirm that rules are more restrictive for products with higher preferential margins and that asean countries usually face tougher rules of origin in the eu because of the composition of their exports

assessing the impact of unilateral trade policies eba and agoa on african beneficiaries exports using matching econometrics the existing literature studying the impact of non reciprocal preferential trade agreements nrptas assumes implicitly nrptas are non randomly assigned without showing the evidence of that using a matching methodology this paper investigates whether the african growth and opportunity act agoa and the everything but arms eba unilateral trade concessions have had an impact and in what magnitude on the exports of african beneficiary countries in the light of the evidence of the non random nature endogeneity of nrptas methodologically previous studies using the matching procedure focused on bi or multilateral trade agreements our work focuses on nrptas that depend only on donors conditions accordingly we show that for nrptas gravity covariates cannot be used for the matching procedure we propose to use political variables as determinants for obtaining non reciprocal trade preferences in order to address the endogenous nature of nrpta assignment our main results confirm that a country becomes eligible for a nrpta only when it meets certain conditions defined by their donors such as political stability and economic regulation for agoa and freedom of expression and human development for eba results also show that both agoa and eba policies have had a positive impact on african beneficiary countries exports to nrpta s providers even if the magnitude impact of eba is significantly lower than that of agoa

incentives in organizations n 1975 steven kerr published on the folly of rewarding a while hoping for b the argument was simple you get what you pay for kerr distilled this unifying theme from a disparate set of examples involving politicians soldiers doctors orphanage directors professors and students as well as manufacturing and clerical employees and even human resource managers from these examples kerr pp 77980 concluded that two main causes of distorted incentives are fascination with an objective criterion where individuals seek to establish simple quantifiable standards against which to measure and reward performance and overemphasis on highly visible behaviors when some parts of the task are highly visible while others are not it took agency theory 15 years to express kerr s title not to mention to evaluate or extend his conclusions during this period agency theory was obsessed with the tradeoff between incentives and insurance even though clear eyed observations like kerr s about the design and performance of real incentive contracts suggested that several other issues are at least as important fortunately recent work has brought agency theory not only to kerr s position but beyond in this paper i summarize four new strands in agency theory that help me think about incentives in real organizations as a point of departure i begin with a quick sketch of the classic agency model i then discuss static models of objective performance measurement that sharpen kerr s argument repeated game models of subjective performance assessments incentives for skill development rather than simply for effort and incentive contracts between versus within organizations i con

the link between ability and specialization an explanation for observed correlations between wages and mobility rates wage levels and turnover rates are negatively correlated across types of employment and this fact is often interpreted as evidence that high wage jobs are rationed a simple training model illustrates however that this correlation may arise because able workers have an incentive to choose highly specialized jobs in any job the most able workers possess the most valuable stocks of specific skills and therefore face the highest mobility costs thus able workers may have a comparative advantage in specialized employments data from the national longitudinal survey of youth provide an opportunity to evaluate the merits of the training model developed here data on worker training and mobility provide support for several implications of the model the model also provides new ways to interpret existing results in the literature on interindustry wage differentials

revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model this paper uses a gravity model to assess ex post regional trade agreements the model includes 130 countries and is estimated with panel data over the period 1962 1996 the introduction of the correct number of dummy variables allows for identification of vinerian trade creation and trade diversion effects while the estimation method takes into account the unobservable characteristics of each pairs of trade partner countries the endogeneity of some of the explanatory variables as well as a potential selection bias in contrast to previous estimates results show that regional agreements have generated a significant increase in trade between members often at the expense of the rest of the world

forecast comparisons in unstable environments we propose new methods for comparing the out of sample forecasting performance of two competing models in the presence of possible instabilities the main idea is to develop a measure of the relative local forecasting performance for the two models and to investigate its stability over time by means of statistical tests we propose two tests the fluctuation test and the one time reversal test that analyze the evolution of the models relative performance over historical samples in contrast to previous approaches to forecast comparison which are based on measures of global performance we focus on the entire time path of the models relative performance which may contain useful information that is lost when looking for the model that forecasts best on average we apply our tests to the analysis of the time variation in the out of sample forecasting performance of monetary models of exchange rate determination relative to the random walk copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

trade creation and diversion revisited accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects summary the effect of preferential trade agreements ptas on trade flows is subject to model uncertainty stemming from the diverse and even contradictory effects suggested by the theoretical pta literature the existing empirical literature has produced remarkably disparate results and the wide variety of empirical approaches reflects the uncertainty about the correct set of explanatory variables that ought to be included in the analysis to account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing pta theories we introduce bayesian model averaging bma to the pta literature statistical theory shows that bma successfully incorporates model uncertainty in linear regression analysis by minimizing the mean squared error and by generating predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy we find strong evidence of trade creation trade diversion and open bloc effects our results are robust to a range of alternative empirical specifications proposed by the recent pta literature copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

impacts of free trade agreements on agricultural trade creation and trade diversion this paper evaluates agricultural trade creation and diversion effects of the most important free trade agreements ftas trade creation and diversion effects are estimated using a poisson pseudo maximum likelihood ppml estimator with various fixed effects to deal with heteroskedasticity and zero trade observations the analysis finds that ppml estimation is preferred to ols and the estimated impacts of ftas are different if zero trade observations are considered the asean china preferential trade agreement eu 15 eu 25 and southern african development community agreements have generated large increases in agricultural trade among their members

a theory of wage and promotion dynamics inside firms we show that a framework that integrates job assignment human capital acquisition and learning captures several empirical findings concerning wage and promotion dynamics inside firms including the following first real wage decreases are not rare but demotions are second wage increases are serially correlated third promotions are associated with large wage increases fourth wage increases at promotion are small relative to the difference between average wages across levels of the job ladder fifth workers who receive large wage increases early in their stay at one level of the job ladder are promoted quickly to the next

the impact of an early career recession on schooling and lifetime welfare this paper evaluates the lifetime welfare and labor market consequences of experiencing a recession during youth using a directed search equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and aggregate shocks in particular the model allows for endogenous schooling decisions over the business cycles the counterfactual analysis shows that experiencing the 1981 1982 recession in youth causes a 1 6 to 2 3 loss in lifetime welfare endogenizing the schooling decision avoids overestimation of welfare loss because of the selection effect and the human capital effect i also decompose lifetime wage changes into different channels changes from schooling work experience and job mobility this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

immigrant language fluency in the low skilled labor market using longitudinal linked employer employee data the author investigates the returns to being a native speaker for immigrant men in the low skilled labor market she compares the two main recent immigrant groups in portugal brazilians who are portuguese native speakers and eastern europeans who are not findings show that both wage level and wage growth of the two groups are similar to better understand this surprising result the author studies two mechanisms through which language fluency may lead to higher wages sorting across occupations and across firms brazilians do sort into occupations that require greater language skills however this does not translate into a wage premium considerable workplace segregation occurs in portugal but brazilians are not less segregated from natives than are eastern europeans evidence in this article suggests that language skills are not a major driver of economic assimilation in the low skilled labor market

wage growth due to human capital accumulation and job search a comparison between the united states and germany this paper compares the sources of wage growth of young male workers in two countries with very different labor market institutions the united states and germany the author first develops a simple method for decomposing wage growth into components due to general human capital accumulation firm specific human capital accumulation and job search the empirical analysis uses data from administrative records germany and the national longitudinal survey of youth united states for cohorts entering the labor market in the late 1970s and early 1980s although the two countries differed substantially in mobility rates they were similar in the sources of wage growth with general human capital accumulation being the most important single source and job search accounting for an additional 25 or more of total wage growth there is no evidence that returns to firm specific human capital accumulation were higher for german apprentices than for u s high school dropouts or graduates

inflation dynamics and the cost channel of monetary transmission evidence from vector autoregressions indicates that the impact of interest rate shocks on macroeconomic aggregates can substantially be affected by the so called cost channel of monetary transmission in this paper we apply a structural approach to examine the relevance of the cost channel for inflation dynamics in g7 countries we augment the so called hybrid new keynesian philips curve by letting firms costs for external funds rise with the short run nominal interest rate our estimates reveal that the magnitude of this cost channel strongly varies between countries including member countries of the emu in accordance with differences in their financial systems simulations of a new keynesian model further show that the presence of the cost channel substantially affects the transmission of monetary policy shocks in particular the inflation response

china s one belt one road initiative the impact of trade facilitation versus physical infrastructure on exports the one belt one road obor project is perhaps china s most significant international relations initiative in recent times it is based on openness harmony inclusivity mutual benefit and market operations and aims to connect the economically vibrant east asia and the developed europe by land and by sea and in the process it brings growth and development to tens of countries along the modern silk routes in this paper we compare the impact of the main initiatives of obor namely enhancements in physical infrastructure and improvements in border administration on the trade of countries that have signed on to this project especially countries along the six economic corridors we find overwhelming evidence that shows improvements in border administration has the greatest impact on exports of corridor countries although physical infrastructure is important for trade the chinese government should place equal attention to improvements in trade facilitation to ensure trade routes operate seamlessly across the various corridors

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

a theory of quits and layoffs with efficient turnover this paper answers the efficient turnover literature s long silence regarding the quit layoff distinction treating quits as worker initiated separations and layoffs as firm initiated separations i establish that the existence of layoffs is compatible with optimizing workers and firms forming and dissolving employment matches to exploit all the gains from trade the efficient turnover approach is shown to be consistent with many empirical regularities that distinguish quits from layoffs structural implications of the model are tested on data from the psid

youth labor markets in the united states shopping around vs staying put the need for school to work programs or other means of increasing early job market stability is predicated on the view that the chaotic nature of youth labor markets in the united states is costly because workers drift from one job to another without developing skills behavior or other characteristics that in turn lead to higher adult earnings however there is also ample evidence that workers receive positive returns to job shopping this paper asks whether youths in unstable jobs early in their careers suffer adverse labor market consequences as adults its specific contribution is to account for the endogenous determination of early job stability and adult wages as outcomes of a job search job shopping process labor market conditions in the early years in the labor market are used as instrumental variables for the job stability experienced during those years the instrumental variables estimates generally point to substantial positive effects of early job stability on adult wages in contrast to

why do firms train theory and evidence this paper offers a theory of training whereby workers do not pay for the general training they receive the superior information of the current employer regarding its employees abilities relative to other firms creates ex post monopsony power and encourages this employer to provide and pay for training even if these skills are general the model can lead to multiple equlibria in one equilibrium quits are endogenously high and as a result employers have limited monopsony power and provide little training while in another equilibrium quits are low and training is high using microdata on german apprentices we show that the predictions of our model receive some support from the data

how destructive is creative destruction effects of job loss on job mobility withdrawal and income we analyze short and long term effects of worker displacement our sample consists of male workers displaced from norwegian manufacturing plants we find that displacement increases the probability of leaving the labor force by 31 the drop out rate from the labor force is particularly high in the first years following displacement the average earnings effects for those who remain in the labor force are moderate a 3 loss relative to non displaced workers after seven years splitting displaced workers on within and between firm movers we find that the estimated earnings loss is entirely driven by between firm movers who experience a 3 6 loss transfers to other plants within multi plant firms upon displacement are quite common our results support the view that human capital is partly firm specific and partly industry specific we find no evidence suggesting that human capital is plant specific

classic promotion tournaments versus market based tournaments as initially formulated in the seminal analysis of lazear and rosen 1981 an important perspective for understanding the role of promotions in firms is the tournament perspective that is a promotion and in particular the wage increase associated with a promotion is a prize that serves as an incentive for workers to exert effort and take other actions beneficial to the firm such as the accumulation of human capital in this paper i consider whether the best way to model promotion tournaments is by having firms commit to prizes ex ante as in lazear and rosen s initial formulation or whether promotion prizes should be modeled as arising from the signaling role of promotions and the competition between firms for promoted workers

general education vocational education and labor market outcomes over the life cycle policy proposals promoting vocational education focus on the school to work transition but with technological change gains in youth employment may be offset by less adaptability and diminished employment later in life to test for this tradeoff we employ a difference in differences approach that compares employment rates across different ages for people with general and vocational education using microdata for 11 countries from ials we find strong and robust support for such a tradeoff especially in countries emphasizing apprenticeship programs german microcensus data and austrian administrative data confirm the results for within occupational group analysis and for exogenous variation from plant closures respectively

a century of inflation forecasts abstract we investigate inflation predictability in the united states across the monetary regimes of the twentieth century the forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation only during the regimes associated with neither a clear nominal anchor nor a credible commitment to fight inflation these include the years from the outbreak of world war ii in 1939 to the implementation of the bretton woods agreements in 1951 and from nixon s closure of the gold window in 1971 to the end of volcker s disinflation in 1983

aid for trade effectiveness complementarities with economic integration developing countries are increasingly using regional integration as a main policy lever when pursuing a trade led growth strategy and today deep preferential trade agreements go beyond trade policy negotiations and cover trade facilitation issues since aid for trade aft has been recognised as a powerful instrument for increasing developing countries trade capacity by targeting internal trade costs this article tests whether complementarities exist between this type of aid and economic integration using a gravity model on panel data for the period 1995 2005 results indicate that aft when combined with economic integration has been effective in increasing trade flows both south south and north south trade flows have benefited and the combination of the two instruments has been particularly effective in expanding the south s exports to the north finally when breaking down aft into categories assistance to trade related institutions seems to generate the strongest complementarities with economic integration

evidence on adverse selection and establishment size in the labor market a commonly suggested explanation for the finding that laid off workers have greater mean post displacement earnings losses than workers who lose theirjobs through plant closings is that the former are of lower quality than the latter but there is also an alternative explanation for this result laid off workers suffer larger earnings losses because as a group they have more to lose in the first place having been displaced from larger higher wage establishments an analysis of data from the national longitudinal survey of youth confirms this hypothesis accounting for establishment size removes virtually all of the difference in wage losses for the two groups of displaced workers an adverse selection framework has been employed by many authors to explain various phenomena in the labor market spence 1973 harris and holmstrom 1982 greenwald 1986 recently several authors gibbons and katz 1991 doiron 1995 grund 1997 have investigated whether the postjob loss experiences of two different types of displaced workers those who are laid off from their jobs and those who are displaced by a plant closing reflect adverse selection specifically do laid off workers exhibit larger post job loss wage

the internal economics of the firm evidence from personnel data we analyze twenty years of personnel data from one firm the hierarchical structure is quite simple and stable career movements suggest that the employee s rate of learning and the firm s learning about ability are important there are promotion fast tracks exit rates vary little with tenure or salary the firm has personnel policies like those described in the internal labor markets literature although several theoretical preconditions for ilms such as ports of entry and exit are lacking job levels are important to compensation but there is also substantial individual variation in pay within levels our companion paper in this issue explores the wage policy of this firm

in the right place at the wrong time the role of firms and luck in young workers careers we examine administrative data on young german workers and their employers to study the long term effects of an early career job loss to account for nonrandom sorting of workers into firms with different turnover rates and for selective job mobility we use changes over time in firm and age specific labor demand as an instrument for displacement we find that wage losses of young job losers are initially 15 percent but drop to zero within five years only workers leaving very large establishments suffer persistent losses a comparison of estimators implies that initial sorting negative selection and voluntary job mobility biases ordinary least squares estimates toward finding permanent negative effects of early displacements

empirical age earnings profiles the human capital earnings function in which earnings are expressed as a quadratic in potential experience is probably the most widely accepted empirical specification in economics in spite of its widespread acceptance the human capital earnings function provides a very poor approximation of the true empirical relationship between earnings and experience the standard formulation understates early career earnings growth by about 30 50 and overstates midcareer growth by 20 50 however simple alternative specifications that fit the data are available

the taylor rule and optimal monetary policy where it denotes the fed s operating target for the federal funds rate pt is the inflation rate measured by the gdp deflator yt is the log of real gdp and y t is the log of potential output identified empirically with a linear trend the rule has since been subject to considerable attention both as an account of actual policy in the united states and elsewhere and as a prescription for desirable policy taylor argues for the rule s normative significance both on the basis of simulations and on the ground that it describes u s policy in a period in which monetary policy is widely judged to have been unusually successful taylor 1999 suggesting that the rule is worth adopting as a principle of behavior here i wish to consider to what extent this prescription resembles the sort of policy that economic theory would recommend i consider the question in the context of a simple but widely used optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism which allows one to reach clear conclusions about economic welfare the model is highly stylized but incorporates important features of more realistic models and allows me to make several points that are of more general validity out of concern for the robustness of the conclusions reached the analysis here addresses only broad qualitative features of the taylor rule and attempts to identify features of a desirable policy rule that are likely to hold under a variety of model specifications

does unmeasured ability explain inter industry wage differentials this paper provides empirical assessments of the two leading explanations of measured inter industry wage differentials 1 true wage differentials exist across industries and 2 the measured differentials simply reflect unmeasured differences in workers productive abilities first we summarize the existing evidence on the unmeasured ability explanation second we construct a simple model which shows that if matching is important then endogenous job change decisions can create important self selection biases even in first differenced estimates of industry wage differentials third we analyze a sample that approximates the experiment of exogenous job loss we find that i the wage change experienced by a typical industry switcher closely resembles the difference in the relevant industry differentials estimated in a cross section and ii pre displacement industry affiliation plays an important role in post displacement wage determination

mind the gap a monetarist view of the open economy phillips curve abstract in many countries inflation has become less responsive to domestic factors and more responsive to global factors over the past decades we introduce money and credit into the workhorse open economy new keynesian model with this framework we show that i an efficient forecast of domestic inflation is based solely on domestic and foreign slack and ii global liquidity global money as well as global credit is tied to global slack in equilibrium then motivated by the theory we evaluate empirically the performance of open economy phillips curve based forecasts constructed using global liquidity measures such as g7 credit growth and g7 money supply growth instead of global slack as predictive regressors using 50 years of quarterly u s data we document that these global liquidity variables perform significantly better than their domestic counterparts and outperform in practice the poorly measured indicators of global slack that global liquidity proxies for

losing heart the effect of job displacement on health job reallocation is considered a key characteristic of well functioning labor markets as more productive firms grow and less productive ones contract or close despite its potential benefits for t

trade creation and trade diversion in the eec the lafta and the cmea 1960 1994 in a simplified version of the gravity model appropriate dummy variables have been introduced to analyse the effects of both trade creation and trade diversion by three economic organizations the european economic community eec the latin american free trade association lafta and the council of mutual economic assistance cmea for the period 1960 94 five year intervals are the main subject of measurement the results show that both trade creation dummies and trade diversion dummies have statistically significant coefficients which show the appropriateness of this new approach the trade creation effect and trade diversion effect of each institution are proved to be generally weakening during the 1990s it is also observed that each organization has a distinctive international trade character for japanese trade a similar approach is used to analyse nonaligned trade by japan with particular interest in the effects of these three institutions on trade with japan the result is that there is no s

order from chaos the effects of early labor market experiences on adult labor market outcomes this paper examines the consequences of initial periods of churning or mobility in the labor market to help assess whether faster transitions to stable employment relationships as envisioned by advocates of school to work programs would be likely to lead to better adult labor market outcomes an analysis of national longitudinal survey of youth data for the years 1979 92 yields modest evidence at best linking early job market stability to better labor market outcomes the authors find that for both genders adult labor market outcomes defined as of the late 20s or early to mid 30s are for the most part unrelated to early labor market experiences this evidence does not support efforts to explicitly target the school to work transition insofar as doing so implies changing the structure of youth labor markets so that workers form earlier and firmer attachments to employers industries or occupations

does mercosur s trade performance raise concerns about the effects of regional trade arrangements this study employs a new methodological approach that measures production efficiency in changing trade patterns it shows that the most rapidly growing products in mercosur s intratrade generally are goods in which members do not have a comparative advantage and have not been able to export competitively to outside markets this is consistent with substantial trade diversion within the arrangement mercosur s discriminatory tariffs against nonmembers which are four to six times higher than those in arrangements such as the european union european free trade area or north american free trade agreement are likely the cause recent further increases in mercosur s tariffs against nonmembers are likely to exacerbate the magnitude of trade diversion

does global liquidity help to forecast u s inflation we construct a measure of global liquidity using the growth rates of broad money for the g7 economies global liquidity produces forecasts of us inflation that are significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on us money growth phillips curve autoregressive and moving average models the marginal predictive power of global liquidity is strong at three years horizons results are robust to alternative measures of inflation

wage policies of a russian firm and the financial crisis of 1998 evidence from personnel data 1997 to 2002 the authors use a rich personnel data set from a russian firm for the years 1997 to 2002 to analyze how the firm adjusts wages and employment during this period in which local labor market conditions changed in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 1998 they relate the development of turnover and wages for various employment categories to alternative models of wage and employment determination the authors argue that the firm s behavior is consistent with the predictions of efficiency wage models of the shirking and turnover type

training and union wages abstract this paper investigates whether unions through imposing wage floors that lead to wage compression increase on the job training our analysis focuses on germany based on a model of unions and firm financed training we derive empirical implications regarding apprenticeship training intensity layoffs wage cuts and wage compression in unionized and nonunionized firms we test these implications using firm panel data matched with administrative employee data we find support for the hypothesis that union recognition via imposing minimum wages and wage compression increases training in apprenticeship programs

are college graduates more responsive to distant labor market opportunities abstract are highly educated workers better at locating in areas with high labor demand to answer this question i use three decades of u s census data to estimate a mcfadden style model of residential location choice i test for education differentials in the likelihood that young workers reside in states experiencing positive labor demand shocks at the time these workers entered the labor market i find effects of changes in state labor demand on college graduate location choice that are several times greater than for high school graduates nevertheless medium run wage effects of entry labor market conditions for college graduates equal or exceed those of less educated workers

identifying sorting in theory assortative matching between workers and rms provides evidence of the complementarities or substitutes in production the presence of complementarities is important for policies that aim to achieve the optimal allocation of resources for example unemployment insurance we argue that using wage data alone it is virtually impossible to identify whether assortative matching is positive or negative even though we cannot identify the sign of the sorting we can identify the strength i e the magnitude of the cross partial and the associated welfare loss we show rst that the wage for a given worker is non monotonic in the type of his employer this is due to the fact that in a sorting model wages reect the opportunity cost of mismatch we show analytically that this non monotonicity prevents standard rm xed eects to correlate with the true type of the rm we then propose an alternative procedure that measures the strength of sorting in the presence of search frictions knowing the strength of sorting facilitates the measurement of the output loss due to mismatch

ranking unemployment duration and wages it explores the implication of one central assumption when firms receive multiple acceptable applications they hire the worker who has been unemployed for the least amount of time this assumption ranking is contrasted with the assumption of random hiring no ranking by embodying this assumption in a model of the labour market with job creation destruction and matching the joint behaviour of unemployment the distribution of unemployment durations and wages are characterized the implication that the re employment prospects of employed workers were they to become unemployed are better than those of the currently unemployed appears to have been an important feature of european unemployment experience in the 1980 s this paper examines the effects of the composition of unemployment on wage determination it explores one central assumption when firms receive multiple acceptable applications they hire the worker who has been unemployed for the least amount of time we refer to this assumption as ranking and contrast it throughout to the assumption of random hiring or no ranking by embodying this assumption in a model of the labour market with job creation destruction and matching we characterize the joint behaviour of unemployment the distribution of unemployment durations and wages ranking has a number of important implications first in addition to the obvious result that the exit rate from unemployment is a decreasing function of duration we show that the effect of duration is stronger the higher the rate of unemployment second with the wage depending on the distributions of prospective unemployment durations the presence of long term unemployed per se has little effect on wages third looking at the relation between the wage and the aggregate level of unemployment and comparing ranking to the case of no ranking the wage moves less with the level of unemployment but more with the change in unemployment put simply ranking and no ranking models show exactly the same aggregate unemployment slightly different long run responses of wages to unemployment and sharply different wage dynamics the paper is organized as follows section i characterizes the matching process and derives a matching function based on an urn ball process with vacancies as urns and applications by unemployed workers as balls thus the distribution of applications per vacancy depends on aggregate unemployment and vacancies vacancies with at least one acceptable application are filled when a vacancy receives more than one acceptable application firms use a rule to choose among applicants thus the rule determines who is hired but does not affect the number of hires section ii uses this matching function in a model of the labour market with continual job creation and destruction and characterizes the equilibrium values of unemployment vacancies and hires

the income losses of displaced workers abstract we use a new matched worker firm dataset for the united kingdom to estimate the income loss resulting from firm closure and mass layoffs we track workers for up to nine years after the displacement event and the availability of predisplacement characteristics allows us to implement difference in differences estimators using propensity score matching methods income losses during the first five years after the displacement event are in the range 18 35 percent per year for workers whose firm closes down and 14 25 percent for workers who exit a firm which suffers a mass layoff these losses are largely due to periods of nonemployment which is consistent with previous work from europe but contrasts with that from the united states

inflation as a global phenomenon some implications for inflation modeling and forecasting abstract we model local inflation dynamics using global inflation and domestic slack motivated by a novel interpretation of the implications of the workhorse open economy new keynesian model we evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the single equation forecasting specification implied by the model exploiting the spatial pattern of international linkages underpinning global inflation we find that incorporating cross country interactions yields significantly more accurate forecasts of local inflation for a diverse group of 14 advanced countries including the u s than either a simple autoregressive model or a standard closed economy phillips curve based forecasting model we argue that modeling the temporal dimension but not the cross country spillovers of inflation does limit a model s explanatory power in sample and its pseudo out of sample forecasting performance moreover we also show that global inflation without domestic slack often contributes the most to achieve the gains on forecasting accuracy observed during our sample period 1984 q1 2015 q1 this observation according to theory is crucially related to the flattening of the phillips curve during this time period of increased globalization

trade creation and trade diversion in the canada united states free trade agreement in this paper the changes in trade patterns introduced by the canada united states free trade agreement are examined variation in the extent of tariff liberalization under the agreement is used to identify the impact of tariff liberalization on the growth of trade both with member countries and non member countries data at the commodity level are used and the results indicate that the canada united states free trade agreement had substantial trade creation effects with little evidence of trade diversion jel classification f13 f14

the effects of unemployment and underemployment on employment opportunities results from a correspondence audit of the labor market for college graduates the authors use data from a resume audit to estimate the impact of unemployment and underemployment on the employment prospects of recent college graduates they find no statistical evidence linking unemployment spells of different durations to employment opportunities by contrast college graduates who are underemployed have callback rates that are 30 lower than those of applicants who are adequately employed the null effects associated with unemployment and the adverse effects associated with underemployment are robust across cities with relatively tight and loose labor market conditions internship experience obtained while completing one s degree substantially reduces the negative effects of underemployment the data support the proposition that employers view underemployment as a strong signal of lower expected productivity

labor market institutions and long term effects of youth unemployment graduating from a school during a time of adverse economic conditions has a persistent harmful effect on workers subsequent employment opportunities an analysis of panel data from oecd countries during the 1960 2010 periods reveals that a worker who experiences a 1 percentage point higher unemployment rate while the worker is 16 24 years old has a 0 14 percentage point higher unemployment rate at ages 25 29 years and 0 03 percentage points higher at ages 30 34 years the persistence of this negative effect is stronger in countries with stricter employment protection legislation a composite index for labor market rigidity is constructed and the index is shown to have positive correlation with the persistence moderating macroeconomic fluctuations is more important in countries that have more persistent labor market entry effects on subsequent outcomes

globalization macroeconomic performance and monetary policy the paper argues that many of the exaggerated claims that globalization has been an important factor in lowering inflation in recent years just do not hold up globalization does however have the potential to be stabilizing for individual economies and has been a key factor in promoting economic growth the paper then examines four questions about the impact of globalization on the monetary transmission mechanism and arrives at the following answers i has globalization led to a decline in the sensitivity of inflation to domestic output gaps and thus to domestic monetary policy no ii are foreign output gaps playing a more prominent role in the domestic inflation process so that domestic monetary policy has more difficulty stabilizing inflation no iii can domestic monetary policy still control domestic interest rates and so stabilize both inflation and output yes iv are there other ways besides possible influences on inflation and interest rates in which globalization may have affected the transmission mechanism of monetary policy yes

assessing the enlargement and deepening of the european union this paper estimates a theoreticallymotivated gravity model to examine the effect of the european union eu on trade and whet her the order of entry has affected the trade performance of member countries additionally we analyse the impact of the diffe rent phases of eu integration on trade the results show that both original countries and successive enlargements boost intra b loc trade moreover the results suggest that the deepening in the integration process has led to more trade creation among members finally only the latter ph ase of the european integration process the single currency has increased trade with non members