minimum effort coordination games stochastic potential and logit equilibrium abstract this paper revisits the minimum effort coordination game with a continuum of pareto ranked nash equilibria noise is introduced via a logit probabilistic choice function the resulting logit equilibrium distribution of decisions is unique and maximizes a stochastic potential function in the limit as the noise vanishes the distribution converges to an outcome that is analogous to the risk dominant outcome for 2 2 games in accordance with experimental evidence logit equilibrium efforts decrease with increases in effort costs and the number of players even though these parameters do not affect the nash equilibria journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c92

measuring returns on investments in collectibles this paper considers the question of how to measure and interpret the financial return to investing in collectibles we review various methodologies for creating priced indexes and then discuss studies that explicitly calculate a rate of return to some set of collectibles while most collectibles appear to yield positive real returns the majority embody more risk and yield lower financial returns than stocks other characteristics of collectibles prices such as covariance with other asset prices are also examined

dynamics of fine wine and asset prices evidence from short and long run co movements this article examines short and long term price linkages among the majority of fine wine and equity markets over the period of 2003 to 2012 we do not consider the price index liv ex 100 or 500 as is typically undertaken in previous studies but rather examine the auction price series of the world s most traded wine vintage pairs 5 bordeaux first growth 8 bordeaux second growth 5 burgundy 3 rhone 4 italian 5 californian 1 australian and 1 portuguese a global equity index is also included using the morgan stanley capital international world cointegration procedures the granger non causality test and ecm are used to analyse short and long run relationships among these markets the results indicate a strong effect of financial markets on wine prices and short term causality for certain wines moreover the findings indicate short run causality between the wines themselves revealing a leader exogenous or follower endogenous status of certain fine wines in price dynamics and also long ru

mixed equilibria are unstable in games of strategic complements in games with strict strategic complementarities properly mixed nash equilibria equilibria that are not in pure strategies are unstable for a broad class of learning dynamics

immigration and inequality immigration is often viewed as a proximate cause of the rising wage gap between highand low skilled workers nevertheless there is controversy over the appropriate theoretical and empirical framework for measuring the presumed effect and over the precise magnitudes involved this paper offers an overview and synthesis of existing knowledge on the relationship between immigration and inequality focusing on evidence from cross city comparisons in the u s while some researchers have claimed that a cross city research design is inherently flawed i argue that the evidence from cross city comparisons is remarkably consistent with recent findings based on aggregate time series data in particular cross city and aggregate time series comparisons provide support for three key conclusions 1 workers with below high school education are perfect substitutes for those with a high school education 2 high school equivalent and college equivalent workers are imperfect substitutes with an elasticity of substitution on the order of 2 3 within education groups immigrants and natives are imperfect substitutes together these results imply that the average impacts of recent immigrant inflows on the relative wages of u s natives are small the effects on overall wage inequality including natives and immigrants are larger reflecting the concentration of immigrants in the tails of the skill distribution and higher residual inequality among immigrants than natives even so immigration accounts for a small share 5 of the increase in u s wage inequality between 1980 and 2000

to save or savor the rate of return to storing wine for 28 000 one can buy a jaguar xj6 308 shares of mcdonnell douglas stock a one tenth interest in an oklahoma gas well 4i years of undergraduate life at stanford or one bottle of chateau lafite vintage 1806 that s 1 166 67 an ounce at this moment gold is worth only 275 an ounce and you can t smell or drink it saturday review of literature 1979 p 38 nine years ago 70 could persuade a paris restaurant to part with this same bottle of liquid gold goldwyn 1979 p 4 but for balance admire the growth of a slightly more pedestrian vintage a 1959 beaulieu estate bottled cabernet today a case of it may be purchased for 1 200 for the more modest budget 950 will buy a case of 1970 beaulieu george latour private reserve cabernet all this goes to show that wine the right wine in the last 10 years has provided the prudently daring investor with a spectacular return the virtues of wine as a liquid asset have been tested recently by krasker 1979 krasker cannot reject a hypothesis that wine offers no extraordinary rate of return the wine investor can expect no greater return than that which accrues to riskless assets while krasker finds the concept that an investment in wine outperforms treasury bills in nominal return incompatible with the way economists believe most assets are priced his result seems counter to intuition wine as a subcategory of riskless assets seems contrary to wine s very nature wine is a living substance its maturation process extends well beyond the bottling day lasting as long as 20 40 years in the case of some reds while a few others refuse to retire at 65 but the proper age

price determination for a collectible good the case of rare united states coins researchers investigating markets for collectible goods such as paintings 1 2 6 12 antique furniture 7 stradivarius violins 14 wine 8 10 and postage stamps 15 often report rates of return to holding collectibles that are both low 2 6 7 8 12 and volatile 6 7 8 12 baumol 2 argues that the market for paintings of noted deceased artists has no long run equilibrium price because the market is characterized by infrequent trades of unique assets which are available in fixed supply his empirical analysis supports the idea that paintings experience unpredictable price changes and highly dispersed rates of return with a mean near zero in contrast anderson 1 reports estimated equations explaining approximately 60 percent of the variation in log prices of paintings based on the size of painting date of sale and a constructed measure of repute of the artist other researchers have examined markets with more frequent transactions and greater substitutability among the goods traded schnitzel 15 finds that year to year changes in prices of postage stamps are predictable based on age of the stamp and quantity printed ross and zondervan 14 report that variations in quality affect prices but not rates of return of stradivarius violins a result which is consistent with user benefits being invariant with respect to quality among markets for collectibles the market for rare u s coins is active and well organized and faces the potential for increased federal regulation annual sales are estimated at 5 billion 16 two wall street brokerages recently have formed multimillion dollar limited partnerships to invest in rare coins and some coins now are traded on electronic exchanges 5 these innovations have come amid calls for increased regulation to guard against fraudulent grading of coins 5 16 a major determinant of the price of a collectible coin is its grade a measure of condition reflecting qualities such as sharpness of features regulators accuse coin dealers of defrauding collectors of millions of dollars annually by assigning higher than warranted grades to the coins dealers sell while downgrading coins they buy for example the federal trade commission ftc

politics economics and the regulation of direct interstate shipping in the wine industry in 1986 california passed legislation restricting the direct importation of wine from another state by california residents unless the originating state allowed direct shipment from california wineries to residents in that state the result has been a patchwork of direct shipment regulations across states we examine how various economic and public interest factors affect the likelihood that a state adopts a change in its direct shipment regulation and the nature of that change our results suggest that private and public sector economic considerations lie at the root of direct shipment regulations in the wine industry

heterogeneity and fine wine prices application of the quantile regression approach this study addresses the price heterogeneity of the five first growths of bordeaux we apply the quantile regression qr approach with market segmentation based on wine bottle price quantiles we

should the personal computer be considered a technological revolution evidence from u s metropolitan areas the introduction and diffusion of personal computers are widely viewed as a technological revolution using u s metropolitan area level panel data this paper asks whether links between pc adoption educational attainment and the return to skill conform to a model of technological revolutions in which the speed and extent of adoption are endogenous the model implies that cities will adjust differently to the arrival of a more skill intensive means of production with the returns to skill increasing most where skill is abundant and its return is low we show that the cross city data fit many of the predictions of the model during the period 1980 2000 the pc diffusion era

measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games this paper proposes a method to measure strategic uncertainty by eliciting certainty equivalents analogous to measuring risk attitudes in lotteries we apply this method by conducting experiments on a class of one shot coordination games with strategic complementarities and choices between simple lotteries and sure payoff alternatives both framed in a similar way despite the multiplicity of equilibria in the coordination games aggregate behaviour is fairly predictable the pure or mixed nash equilibria cannot describe subjects behaviour we present two global games with private information about monetary payoffs and about risk aversion while previous literature treats the parameters of a global game as given we estimate them and show that both models describe observed behaviour well the global game selection for vanishing noise of private signals offers a good recommendation for actual players given the observed distribution of actions we also deduce subjective beliefs and compare them with objective probabilities

the rate of return on investment in wine joyce p jacobsen is wine an investment alternative to stocks and bonds first we review prior studies regarding the pecuniary rate of return to wine and other alternatives to financial assets next we calculate the rate of return to holding red bordeaux wine from 1986 to 1996 using a repeat sale regression finally we contrast the financial performance of wine both on an aggregate basis and for various portfolios to that of other asset classes we conclude that wine does not yield greater returns than financial assets especially when the volatility of returns and transaction costs are taken into account jel d44 g12 c43 investments in art and other collectibles are generally deemed profitable but empirical examinations of the relative attractiveness of noncapital good tangible assets relative to financial instruments have shown that art and other collectibles are not sound investments from a financial point of view there is a large body of literature that calculates the rate of return on alternative asset classes and concludes with few exceptions that nonfinancial assets are not good financial investments however in the case of wine the evidence is mixed collectors often maintain that the pecuniary rate of return on investments in wine is comparable to or exceeds investments in stocks and bonds and economists have not reached a consensus vis a vis the relative attractiveness of wine in this article we consider 1 how investment grade wine compares to other alternative asset classes and 2 whether wine might be a viable investment alternative to stocks or bonds first we consider the results drawn from empirical investigations regarding the relative attractiveness of paintings and other collectibles as investments next we review prior econometric evidence regarding the pecuniary rate of return to wine finally we calculate the return on wine from 1986 to 1996 using a repeat sale regression and contrast wine s financial performance both for an aggregate portfolio and for selected submarkets to that of other asset classes i most investments in collectibles cannot be justified as purely monetary there is a virtual consensus in the economic literature of the arts that financial assets dominate less traditional tangible assets as investments because art and other collectibles embody a compensating differential in the form of a user benefit burton and jacobsen 1999 offer a survey of this literature that finds that most quantitative examinations of the markets for art and other collectibles have concluded that the high risk low return characteristics of noncapital good tangible assets effectively proscribe retaining them as financial investments a seminal study by baumol 1986 for example estimated the real annual rate of return on paintings over the period 1652 to 1961 to be only 0 55 frey and pommerehne 1989 who subsequently extended baumol s data set up through 1987 and expanded it by including sales from more countries also concluded that paintings were relatively unattractive investment instruments yielding only about 1 4 between 1635 and 1949 and 1 6 between 1950 and 1987 on an annual inflation adjusted basis more recent studies have only confirmed that investments in other forms of art and collectibles compare unfavorably to investments in traditional financial assets especially when the rate of return is risk adjusted 1 pesando 1993 for example constructed a price index of modem prints over 1977 to 1992 and estimated that the average real annual rate of return on an aggregate print portfolio was only 1 51 well below the concomitant real return on stocks moreover pesando noted that the risk as measured by the standard deviation of real returns associated with investing in prints was comparable to or even exceeded investments in stocks or long term bonds ii but what about wine

immigration restrictions as active labor market policy evidence from the mexican bracero exclusion an important class of active labor market policy has received little rigorous impact evaluation immigration barriers intended to improve the terms of employment for domestic workers by deliberately shrinking the workforce recent advances in the theory of endogenous technical change suggest that such policies could have limited or even perverse labor market effects but empirical tests are scarce we study a natural experiment that excluded almost half a million mexican bracero seasonal agricultural workers from the united states with the stated goal of raising wages and employment for domestic farm workers we build a simple model to clarify how the labor market effects of bracero exclusion depend on assumptions about production technology and test it by collecting novel archival data on the bracero program that allow us to measure state level exposure to exclusion for the first time we cannot reject the hypothesis that bracero exclusion had no effect on u s agricultural wages or employment and find that important mechanisms for this result include both adoption of less labor intensive technologies and shifts in crop mix

the effect of low skilled immigration on u s prices evidence from cpi data i exploit the large variation across u s cities and through time in the relative size of the low skilled immigrant population to estimate the causal effect of immigration on prices of nontraded goods and services using an instrumental variables strategy i find that at current immigration levels a 10 percent increase in the share of low skilled immigrants in the labor force decreases the price of immigrant intensive services such as housekeeping and gardening by 2 percent wage equations suggest that lower wages are a likely channel through which these effects take place however wage effects are significantly larger for low skilled immigrants than for low skilled natives implying that the two are imperfect substitutes

income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants abstract two prominent features of international labor movements are that the more educated are more likely to emigrate positive selection and more educated migrants are more likely to settle in destination countries with high rewards to skill positive sorting using data on emigrant stocks by schooling level and source country in oecd destinations we find that a simple model of income maximization can account for both phenomena results on selection show that migrants for a source destination pair are more educated relative to non migrants the larger is the absolute skill related difference in earnings between the destination country and the source results on sorting indicate that the relative stock of more educated migrants in a destination is increasing in the absolute earnings difference between high and low skilled workers we use our framework to compare alternative specifications of international migration estimate the magnitude of migration costs by source destination pair and assess the contribution of wage differences to how migrants sort themselves across destination countries

an explanation of anomalous behavior in models of political participation this paper characterizes behavior with noisy decision making for models of political interaction characterized by simultaneous binary decisions applications include voting participation games candidate entry the volunteer s dilemma and collective action problems with a contribution threshold a simple graphical device is used to derive comparative statics and other theoretical properties of a quantal response equilibrium and the resulting predictions are compared with nash equilibria that arise in the limiting case of no noise many anomalous data patterns in laboratory experiments based on these games can be explained in this manner

the race between man and machine implications of technology for growth factor shares and employment we examine the concerns that new technologies will render labor redundant in a framework in which tasks previously performed by labor can be automated and new versions of existing tasks in which labor has a comparative advantage can be created in a static version where capital is fixed and technology is exogenous automation reduces employment and the labor share and may even reduce wages while the creation of new tasks has the opposite effects our full model endogenizes capital accumulation and the direction of research towards automation and the creation of new tasks if the long run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low the long run equilibrium involves automation of all tasks otherwise there exists a stable balanced growth path in which the two types of innovations go hand in hand stability is a consequence of the fact that automation reduces the cost of producing using labor and thus discourages further automation and encourages the creation of new tasks in an extension with heterogeneous skills we show that inequality increases during transitions driven both by faster automation and introduction of new tasks and characterize the conditions under which inequality is increasing or stable in the long run

the determinants and welfare implications of us workers diverging location choices by skill 1980 2000 abstract from 1980 to 2000 the rise in the us college high school graduate wage gap coincided with increased geographic sorting as college graduates concentrated in high wage high rent cities this paper estimates a structural spatial equilibrium model to determine causes and welfare consequences of this increased skill sorting while local labor demand changes fundamentally caused the increased skill sorting it was further fueled by endogenous increases in amenities within higher skill cities changes in cities wages rents and endogenous amenities increased inequality between high school and college graduates by more than suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone jel d31 i26 j24 j31 j61 r23

the price of wine abstract using historical price records for bordeaux premiers crus we examine the impact of aging on wine prices and the long term investment performance of fine wine in line with the predictions of an illustrative model young maturing wines from high quality vintages provide the highest financial returns past maturity famous ch teaus deliver growing non pecuniary benefits to their owners using an arithmetic repeat sales regression over 1900 2012 we estimate a real financial return to wine investment net of storage costs of 4 1 which exceeds bonds art and stamps returns to wine and equities are positively correlated finally we find evidence of in sample return predictability

ability biased technological transition wage inequality and economic growth thispaper develops a growthmodel characterizedbyability biasedtechnological transition in which the evolution of technology education attainment and wage inequality is consistent with the observed pattern in the united states and other advanced countries over the past several decades it argues that an increase in the rate of technological progress raises the return to ability and simultaneously generates an increase in wage inequality between and within groups of skilled and unskilled workers an increase in average wages of skilled workers a temporary decline in average wages of unskilled workers an increase in education and a productivity transitory slowdown

immigration wages and education a labour market equilibrium structural model recent literature analysing wage effects of immigration assumes labour supply is fixed across education experience cells this article departs from this assumption estimating a labour market equilibrium dynamic discrete choice model on u s micro data for 1967 2007 individuals adjust to immigration by changing education participation and or occupation adjustments are heterogeneous 4 2 26 2 of prime aged native males change their careers of them some switch to white collar careers and increase education by about three years others reduce labour market attachment and reduce education also by about three years these adjustments mitigate initial effects on wages and inequality natives that are more similar to immigrants are the most affected on impact but also have a larger margin to adjust and differentiate adjustments also produce a self selection bias in the estimation of wage effects at the lower tail of the distribution which the model corrects