gasoline price volatility and the elasticity of demand for gasoline abstract we examine how gasoline price volatility impacts consumers price elasticity of demand for gasoline results show that volatility in prices decreases consumer demand for gasoline in the intermediate run we also find that consumers appear to be less elastic in response to changes in gasoline price when gasoline price volatility is medium or high compared to when it is low moreover we find that when we control for variance in our econometric model gasoline price elasticity of demand is lower in magnitude in the long run

public capital and long run costs in u k manufacturing a model of u k manufacturing production that incorporates the inputs of public as well as private capital is specified and estimated the model is then used to measure the contribution of public capital to productivity growth over the period 1966 to 1990 it is found that before 1980 the public and private capital contributions were of comparable magnitude after 1980 the contribution of public capital declined significantly copyright 1993 by royal economic society

refining for export and the convergence of petroleum product prices abstract the petroleum refining industry has changed over the past decades from one in which capacity primarily served local and regional markets to one in which trade in refined petroleum products has become more widespread we investigate the hypothesis of increasing globalization by examining the convergence of prices for refined products across different markets using data on refined products from market centers in the us and europe we test for convergence of prices using standard time series techniques the data plainly show that markets for refined petroleum products have become more interrelated as europe exported its gasoline surplus and global demand for petroleum products approached refining capacity econometric evidence supports the hypothesis that the us and european markets for oil and refined products are integrated we find evidence that a structural break during the financial crisis of 2008 changed the long run equilibrium price relationships and the short run price dynamics refined product markets are likely to experience continued globalization given trends in the united states and europe and because of key export oriented refining capacity investments made to take advantage of access to specific crude oil sources

transactions costs and the term structure of interest rates in the otc bond market in japan this paper analyzes how the recent expansion of secondary bond trading reduced the transactions cost and discusses the imp lication of this reduced transactions cost for the term structure of interest rates in the over the counter otc bond market in japan it shows that the increased trading volume and competition reduced the bid ask price spreads of bonds and as a result the term structure o f interest rates in the otc market converged to the term structure in the euroyen market copyright 1987 by ohio state university press

demand for gasoline in kuwait an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract this paper estimates the demand for gasoline in kuwait for the period 1970 1989 using a cointegration and error correction model ecm it is found that gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run and while it is elastic in the long run gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run this suggests that gasoline demand response to income changes is higher in the long run than in the short run furthermore gasoline consumption adjusts towards its long run level with about 52 of the adjustment occurring in the first year

a cointegration analysis of gasoline demand in the united states time series estimation of gasoline demand elasticities often does not take into account the possibility of nonstationarity in the underlying data which may render the parameter estimates spurious studies have shown that the time trending variables used to explain gasoline demand could be difference stationary and therefore may require cointegration analysis to assess the relationship among the trending variables in this work we use the cointegration technique to derive long run and short run demand elasticities of noncommercial gasoline consumption using time series data for the usa from 1949 to 2004 we also attempt to incorporate the presence of a structural break in the data generation process of the time trending variables our results show that the consumption of gasoline and lifetime income have a long term stable relationship after the second oil shock of 1978 prior to the first oil shock of 1973 no such long run relationship could be established through cointegration

energy consumption and energy r d in oecd perspectives from oil prices and economic growth abstract we estimate the short run and long run elasticities of various types of energy consumption and energy r d to changes in oil prices and income of the 20 oecd countries over the period of 1980 2010 using the nerlove partial adjustment model npam we find negative income elasticity for coal consumption but positive income elasticity for oil and gas consumption suggesting the importance of economic growth in encouraging the usage of cleaner energy from coal to oil and gas by introducing time dummies into the regressions we show that climatic mitigation policies are able to promote the usage of cleaner energies through the dynamic linkages between energy consumption and energy r d we find that fossil fuel consumption promotes fossil fuel r d and fossil fuel r d in turn drives its own consumption renewable energy r d which is more responsive to economic growth reduces fossil fuel consumption and hence fossil fuel r d

term premiums in bond returns abstract this paper examines expected returns on u s treasury bills and on u s government bond portfolios expected bill returns are estimated from forward rates and from sample average returns both estimation methods indicate that expected returns on bills tend to peak at eight or nine months and never increase monotonically out to twelve months reliable inferences are limited to treasury bills and thus to maturities up to a year the variability of longer term bond returns preempts precise conclusions about their expected returns

estimating shocks and impulse response functions this paper examines the issue of how to identify the shocks in a cointegrated var when the following assumptions are made the variables can be classified as endogenous or exogenous there are as many cointegrating relations as endogenous variables the cointegrating vectors are identified and they contain at least one exogenous variable it is shown that with these assumptions it is possible to identify the shocks without the use of further restrictions on the covariance matrix of the disturbances or the short run dynamics if the long run parameters are known the whole model can be estimated by ols the analysis is extended to allow the var to have both stationary and non stationary variables an illustration of the method is provided using the traditional benchmark var model involving us data on output prices interest rates and money a liquidity effect is not found using this var methodology

cooperative investments induced by contract law lecture on the first sfb tr 15 meeting gummersbach july 18 20 2004this paper revisits the economic analysis of contract law for a setting of cooperative investments while che and chung 1999 have shown that expectation damages perform rather poorly the present paper argues that this negative result follows from their impicit assumption of unilateral expectation damages yet the very nature of cooperative investments gives rise to the possibility that both parties may claim expectation damages it is shown that such a regime of bilateral expectation damages provides the incentives for the first best solution even in a framework of binary choice where for selfish investments the traditional overreliance result would hold

a new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle abstract this paper introduces a general procedure for decomposition of non stationary time series into a permanent and transitory component allowing both components to be stochastic the permanent component is shown to be a random walk with drift and the transitory or cyclical component is a stationary process with mean zero the decomposition methodology which depends only on past data and therefore is computable in real time is applied to the problem of measuring and dating business cycles in the portwar u s economy we find that measured expansions and contractions are of roughly equivalent duration and that our dating of cyclical episodes tends to lead the traditional nber dating and to a lesser extent the growth cycle chronology of zarnowitz and boschan 1977

estimates of price elasticity of demand for urban freeway use with high frequency control variables the case of santiago chile estimates are presented of toll and fuel price elasticities of demand for urban freeway use in santiago chile high frequency toll and vehicle data were collected from four urban freeways for different route segments and times of day estimation was performed using log linear regression models whose explanatory variables were tolls fuel prices city traffic levels and sets of dichotomous variables to control for daily weekly and monthly seasonality city traffic is a high frequency control of the activity level of the city the elasticities to changes in tolls and fuel were all low in absolute value the toll elasticities were below 0 05 for two freeways and 0 16 for the third while for the fourth which had more alternative routes it was 0 47 the fuel price elasticities were also heterogeneous with values of approximately 0 45 for two freeways and 0 21 for the third whereas for the fourth which had the fewest alternatives it was 0 07

an asymmetric error correction model of uk consumer spending this paper augments the granger and lee journal of applied econometrics 4 1989 non symmetric error equilibrium correction model to assess the possibility that in the aggregate consumers respond differently to different types of disequilibrium error this idea is illustrated using an engle granger implementation of the davidson hendry srba and yeo dhsy economic journal 80 1978 model the disequilibrium error is endogenously determined by the long run empirical model and a binary dummy variable captures two alternative states above and below equilibrium spending interaction of the dummy variable with key variables in a short run dynamic model of uk consumer spending augments the dynamics of the dhsy model income elasticities inflation elasticities and speeds of adjustment are all seen to change significantly depending on whether the disequilibrium error is positive or negative and is suggestive of asymmetric behaviour on the part of consumers moreover the asymmetrically augmented mode

an estimation of u s gasoline demand a smooth time varying cointegration approach abstract in this paper the u s gasoline demand from 1976 to 2008 is estimated using a time varying cointegrating regression we find that price elasticity increased rapidly during the late 1970s and then decreased until 1987 after a relatively small scaled increase decrease cycle from 1987 to 2000 the price elasticity rose again after 2000 the time varying change of the elasticities may be explained by the proportion of gasoline consumption to income and fluctuation of the degree of necessity the result of the error correction model shows that a deviation from a long run equilibrium is corrected quickly and the welfare analysis illustrates there may be a gain by shifting the tax scheme from income tax to gasoline tax

liquidity maturity and the yields on u s treasury securities the efrect8 of aaaet liquidity on expected retuma for ts with infinite maturities toc ka are eumined for bonda treuury notes and bills with matched maturities of lellll than 6 months the yield to maturity ill higher on notes which have lower liquidity the yield di1ferential between notes and billa is a decreuing and convex function of the time to maturity the results provide a robult confirmation of the liquidity effect in auet pricing this paper studies empirically the effects of the liquidity of capital assets on their prices amihud and mendelson 1986 1989 proposed that liquidity affects asset prices because investors require a compensation for bearing transaction costs transaction costs paid whenever the asset is traded form a sequence of cash outflows the discounted value of this cost stream proxies for the value 1088 due to illiquidity which lowers the asset s value for any given cash flow that the asset generates 1 as a result the return on assets should be an increasing function of their illiquidity other things equal for stocks the illiquidity effect is expected to be strong because their transaction cost sequence is infinite amihud and mendelson 1986 1989 demonstrated that common stocks with lower liquidity yielded significantly higher average returns after controlling for risk and for other factors these results on the importance of liquidity in the pricing of stocks raise additional questions i does the liquidity effect depend on the specific controls used by amihud and mendelson 1986 1989 1 ii does illiquidity have a similarly strong effect on the pricing of bonds whose maturities are finite and iii if liquidity affects bond yields how is this effect related to the bond s time to maturity

have north south growth linkages changed abstract this paper provides econometric evidence suggesting that the traditional tradebased business cycle linkages between the north and the south have changed many countries in the south particularly in asia appear to have become more resilient to cyclical movements in the north and play a more significant role in sustaining global activity a number of factors may have contributed to these changes improved domestic policies and more open trade and exchange regimes closer financial linkages with the north and a substantial increase in capital flows a marked rise in intraregional trade and greater diversification of the exports of the south

japan s financial deregulation and linkage of the gensaki and euroyen deposit markets summary this paper examines whether japan s financial deregulation weakened the linkage between the euroyen and gensaki markets it defines and analyses the linkage of the two markets in terms of the persistence and predictability of yield spreads as well as cross market causality by using johansen tests and an error correction model this paper shows first cross market causality before and after deregulation and second one common trend in interest rates substantial gensaki euroyen yield spreads and a slower response of the one month gensaki euroyen yield spread to a shock after deregulation

the middleman as a panacea for supply chain coordination problems abstract the prevalence of intermediaries middlemen in supply chains is often seen as a dying remnant of less efficient times despite predictions that supply chains will rapidly cut out the middleman as technological advances have eased logistics middlemen have continued to thrive in this paper we demonstrate a transaction role of middlemen that may help clarify their staying power in a model with self interested decision making by both a manufacturer and a retailer wherein incentive misalignment creates investment and production inefficiencies we show that the integrated first best outcome can be achieved with simple cost based contracts if and only if a middleman is present we further show that the approach of utilizing a middleman to fully coordinate the supply chain is robust in that it can be applied to a variety of circumstances discussed in the literature including multilateral investment effort choices multiple product providers and logistical investments made by the middleman

net foreign assets and international adjustment the united states japan and germany abstract this paper examines external adjustment in the usa japan and germany from the perspective of net foreign asset positions it asks two questions what are in the long run the determinants of net foreign asset equilibrium what are in the short run some of the adjustment mechanisms sustaining that equilibrium an analysis of post war data produces two insights first using a cointegration approach the existence of long run net foreign asset equilibrium can be identified it is a function of demographic variables and public debt second deviations from long run equilibrium give rise to feedback through different components of domestic absorption in the three countries

an empirical analysis of gasoline demand in denmark using cointegration techniques abstract danish time series data covering the period 1948 1991 are used in order to estimate short run and long run elasticities in gasoline demand a cointegration test for a stable long run relationship between the variables in the model proves to be positive showing a smaller value of the long run price elasticity than often quoted in empirical studies of gasoline demand finally an error correction model is estimated

the demand for transport fuels in turkey abstract in this paper we estimate the demand for transport fuels in turkey specifically using four different models namely a partial adjustment model a distributed lag model an autoregressive distributed lag model and an error correction model we estimate gasoline and diesel demand functions with quarterly data covering the period 2003 q1 2014 q3 we find a stable long run relationship only for diesel demand income and price our results imply that gasoline demand does not respond to income and price in the long run reflecting a shift from gasoline towards diesel induced by differential tax policies furthermore we find that transport fuel demand is price inelastic making tax on fuel a perfect tool for raising budget revenues in addition our results suggest that fuel demand responds to negative and positive price changes symmetrically

short and long run elasticities of gasoline demand in india an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract in developing countries like india consumption of petroleum products has implications on its balance of payments economic growth and fiscal deficit gasoline is one of the prime petroleum products in this paper the relationship between gasoline demand national income and price of gasoline is empirically examined using cointegration and error correction techniques the time frame of the analysis is from 1972 1973 to 1993 1994 it has been found that gasoline demand is likely to increase significantly for a given increase in the gross domestic product the increase will be larger in the long run 2 682 than in the short run 1 178 gasoline demand is relatively inelastic to price changes both in the long and short terms the error correction model has shown that gasoline demand adjusts to their respective long run equilibrium at a relatively slow rate with about 28 of adjustment taking place in the first year

measuring market power for some industrial sectors in austria this paper applies an oligopoly model which parameterizes the degree of market power for two industrial sectors glass industry non electrical machinery in austria in contrast all other paper in the new empirical indsutrial organization literature we account for the non stationarity characteristics of the data series a dynamic specification procedure which assumes structural long run equilibrium relationships is therefore applied since a simultaneous system with non linear cross equation restrictions is implied by the economic model a full information maximum likelihood method is used the data reveal a higher degree of market power for the glass industry than for non electrical machinery this hierarchy is in line with the position of these industries for concentration rates and herfindahl indices

impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems abstract impulse response or dynamic multiplier analysis of vector autoregressive systems with cointegrated variables is considered the asymptotic distribution of the responses estimated with johansen s 1988 maximum likelihood procedure is derived the results are illustrated with an analysis of a west german money demand system the investigation shows that a direct interpretation of the cointegration relations may be difficult or misleading thereby the virtue of impulse response analysis for applied work is illustrated

declining discount rates and the fisher effect inflated past discounted future uncertain and persistent real interest rates underpin one argument for using a declining term structure of social discount rates in the expected net present value enpv framework despite being controversial this approach has influenced both the inter agency working group on cost benefit analysis and the uk government s guidelines on discounting we first clarify the theoretical basis of the enpv approach then rather than following previous work which used a single series of u s treasury bond returns we treat nominal interest rates and inflation as co integrated series and estimate the empirical term structure of discount rates via the fisher effect this nests previous empirical models and is more flexible it also addresses an irregularity in previous work which used data on nominal interest rates until 1950 and real interest rates thereafter as we show the real and nominal data have very different time series properties this paper therefore provides a robustness check on previous discounting advice and updated methodological guidance at a time when governments around the world are reviewing their guidelines on social discounting the policy implications are discussed in the context of the social cost of carbon nuclear decommissioning and public health

short run long run and cross elasticities of gasoline demand in brazil gasoline is one of the most important of the oil derived products its importance is closely related to its participation in the value of imports of many countries and in a number of cases it is one of the determinants of their balance of payment deficit fiscal deficit and economic growth as opposed to most nations brazil has had a gasoline substitute since 1985 alcohol many studies have tried to estimate the income and price elasticities of the demand for gasoline in several countries this paper extends previous studies by estimating the cross price elasticity between gasoline and alcohol our findings indicate that alcohol is an imperfect substitute for gasoline even in the long run as a consequence the need for a new fuel substitution must be initiated long before petroleum reserves vanish

intraday volatility in the stock index and stock index futures markets we examine the intraday relationship between returns and returns volatility in the stock index and stock index futures markets our results indicate a strong intermarket dependence in the volatility of the cash and futures returns price innovations that originate in either the stock or futures markets can predict the future volatility in the other market we show that this relationship persists even during periods in which the dependence in the returns themselves appears to weaken the findings are robust to controlling for potential market frictions such as asynchronous trading in the stock index our results have implications for understanding the pattern of information flows between the two markets article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

analysing gasoline demand elasticities a survey this paper is a survey of studies on gasoline demand although there are very many dxerent studies in this eld which sometimes appear to arrive at contradictory results we find that with proper stratification of studies by model and data type much of the contict turns to consensus in this survey we classtfy studies by data type and by ten d erent categories of model and with the exception of estimates on seasonal data which tend to be unstable and of certain inappropriate model formulations we find a fair degree of agreement concerning average short run and even long run income and price elasticities

efficient reliance and damage measures for breach of contract this article considers a situation where the buyer or the seller of a good must engage in expenditures on specific capital before the exchange either to prepare to use the product or to prepare to sell it it is assumed that postbreach bargaining is possible and carried out in a cooperative fashion and that buyers and sellers form expectations about the outcome of such bargaining in a specific way without enforceable contracts the potential appropriability of specific rents results in inefficiently low levels of investment three damage measures commonly used to enforce contracts are shown to produce inefficiently high levels of investment and to be pareto ranked from best to worst as follows specific performance expectation damages and reliance damages

elasticities of transport fuels at times of economic crisis an empirical analysis for spain abstract this paper provides an updated calculation of the price and income responsiveness of spanish consumers of transport fuels with an explicit exploration of the effects of the recent economic crisis we examine separate gasoline and diesel demand models using a set of estimators on a panel of 16 spanish regions over the period 1999 2015 the paper confirms the persistence of low own price elasticities both for diesel and gasoline in the short and long runs it also shows that the crisis of 2008 2013 slightly increased the price elasticity of demand for transport fuels with a higher effect on diesel than on gasoline by contrary the crisis slightly reduced the income elasticity of transport fuel demand given the intensity and length of the economic recession in spain the results of this paper may be useful to anticipate the effects of domestic public policies that impact transport fuel prices as well as to advance some of the potential consequences of crises elsewhere

road transport energy demand in australia a cointegration approach abstract a cointegration framework is used to examine the short run and long run characteristics of energy demand in the australian road transport sector a lagged endogenous equation based on a partial adjustment process is proposed and estimated results indicate that energy demand output and real energy prices are integrated of order 1 and cointegrated the long run output and price elasticities of energy demand are estimated to be 0 52 and 0 12 respectively causality tests ervealed a bidirectional causality path between output and energy demand and a unidirectional path from energy consumption to prices no other causality paths between output prices and energy demand are detected the short run output elasticity of energy demand is estimated to be 0 25 based on an error correction model the short run price elasticity is found to be insignificant the inertia parameter is 0 48 corresponding to 95 of the demand adjustment occurring after five periods the results are compared with previous findings and the variations are partially attributed to the structural changes in the road transport sector in the 1980s some of which are discussed

meteor showers or heat waves heteroskedastic intra daily volatility in the foreign exchange market this paper seeks to explain the causes of volatility clustering in exchange rates careful examination of intra daily exchange rates provides a test of two hypotheses heat waves and meteor showers the heat wave hypothesis is that the volatility has only country specific autocorrelation alternatively the meteor shower is a phenomenon of intra daily volatility spillovers from one market to the next using the garch model to specify the heteroskedasticity across intra daily market segments we find that the empirical evidence is generally against the null hypothesis of the heat wave using a volatility type of vector autoregression we examine the impact of news in one market on the time path of per hour volatility in other markets

ricardian equivalence and the public and private saving nexus in india abstractthis study tests the ricardian equivalence theorem ret and examines the responsiveness of private saving to public saving in india most estimators do not provide support for the empirical validity of ret and long run cointegration between public and private saving the increases in household saving hhs seem to have been engendered by the provision of saving incentives institution of saving schemes self driven motivation to save and the precautionary accumulations induced by uncovered uncertainties in incomes rather than by ricardian behaviour of households the self imposed aversion to debt and debt bequest borrowing and liquidity constraints and the intertemporal smoothing of consumption have been the added catalysts that contributed to the increases in hhs the households with binding borrowing constraints inadequate or no insurance and uncovered uncertainties in incomes seem to have been saving more to pay for higher inflation tax the fiscal consolidation and generation of public s

services sector and economic growth in india this study examines the long run equilibrium and short run dynamic relationship between services sector and gross domestic product gdp and between services and nonservices sectors in india the model is estimated using the optimal single equation and the maximum likelihood system estimators all the estimators consistently suggest the cointegrating relationship between services sector and gdp as well as between services and nonservices sectors the estimates of long run elasticity parameters are statistically significant and dimensionally consistent across the estimators the conventional cumulative sum cusum and the new cusum and moving sum mosum tests suggest the stability of the equilibrium residuals and reinforce the cointegrating relationship between the model series the error correction model provides some support for unidirectional granger causality from services sector to gdp the impulse response and variance decomposition analyses instead suggest the bidirectional causality between servic

are japanese interest rates too stable abstract we examine the effects of japanese financial market liberalization using daily data on eurocurrency and two japanese onshore interest rates the gensaki and cd rates our evidence suggests that japanese money markets are now fully integrated with world markets but that the degree of integration depends heavily on the japanese asset examined in particular we find that the gensaki market is not completely integrated with the euroyen market the cd rate however is cointegrated with the euroyen rate since june 1984 and the euroyen cd rate variance ratio is similar to that of dollar denominated assets after november 1988 jel e43

expectation damages divisible contracts and bilateral investment this paper examines the efficiency of expectation damages as a breach remedy in a bilateral trade setting with renegotiation and relationship specific investment by the buyer and the seller as demonstrated by edlin and reichelstein 1996 no contract that specifies only a fixed quantity and a fixed per unit price can induce efficient investment if marginal cost is constant and deterministic we show that this result does not extend to more general payoff functions if both parties face the risk of breaching the first best becomes attainable with a simple price quantity contract

estimating long run economic equilibria with stochastic trends an asymptotic theory is provided to analyze a menu of currently existing estimators of cointegrated systems we study in detail the single equation ecm seecm approach of hendry our theoretical results lead to prescriptions for empirical work such as specifying seecm s nonlinearly and including lagged equilibrium relationships rather than lagged differences of the dependent variable as covariates simulations support these prescriptions and point to problems of overfitting not encountered in the semiparametric approach of phillips and hansen 1990