an economic theory of self control the concept of self control is incorporated in a theory of individual intertemporal choice by modeling the individual as an organization the individual at a point in time is assumed to be both a farsighted planner and a myopic doer the resulting conflict is seen to be fundamentally similar to the agency conflict between the owners and managers of a firm both individuals and firms use the same techniques to mitigate the problems which the conflicts create this paper stresses the implications of this agency model and discusses as applications the effect of pensions on saving saving and the timing of income flows and individual discount rates

managerial ability a review of its basis and potential improvement using psychological concepts abstract achieving an appropriate resource allocation structure usually revolves around the farm manager his or her ability is crucial to success yet most farmers learn by experience and or through various courses that concentrate on technical production economic and related aspects putting more effort into understanding the components of managerial ability and how a managers ability to perform well in each component might be improved is well overdue as psychology is the study of people and their actions it is the obvious discipline to turn to for assistance this paper contains a review of the psychology of decision making from a farm management perspective outlines what psychology offers for changing a person s attributes and considers the structure of a research programme aimed at developing methods for improving individual s managerial ability

measurement of economic efficiency in pakistani agriculture farm efficiency and the question of how to measure it is an important subject in developing countries agriculture there are three distinct approaches to measurement based on cost profits and production functions farrell developed the concept of technical efficiency based on input and output relationships technical inefficiency arises when actual or observed output from a given input mix is less than the maximum possible allocative inefficiency arises when the input mix is not consistent with cost minimization advances have been made in the frontier cost function literature using flexible functional forms bauer greene 1980 forsund knoxlovell and schmidt and schmidt an approach using systems of equations based on cost profit and distance functions was developed to incorporate all available information on multiproduct farms kumbhakar schmidt fare grosskopf and nelson hayes the present study uses a cost function approach and combines the concepts of technical and allocative efficiency in the cost relationship any errors in the production decision translate into higher costs for the producer at the same time the stochastic nature of production implies that the theoretical cost function is stochastic 2 two distinct approaches are used first we use the stochastic frontier approach in which translog cost function is specified and estimated without using share equations the derived measure of inefficiency is then related to socioeconomic demographic and farm size variables second we use a behavioral approach in which translog cost function again is estimated but this time as a function of the shadow prices of the inputs the cost share equations are estimated jointly with a cost equation incorporating all cross equation restrictions moreover the input use inefficiency is introduced through the parameters and these are related to the structural variables this approach permits us to obtain a farm specific measure of allocative inefficiency

profit efficiency among basmati rice producers in pakistan punjab farm specific profit inefficiency among basmati rice producers was estimated from a variable coefficient profit frontier the mean level of inefficiency at farm resources and price levels was 28 with a wide range 5 87 average loss of profit was rs 1 222 per hectare socioeconomic factors related to profit loss were the farm household s education nonagricultural employment and a credit constraint institutional determinants of profit loss were a water constraint and the late application of fertilizer punjab wide benefits of increasing farmer s profit efficiency are large a 25 reduction in profit loss among basmati rice producers may generate over rs 240 million in extra profits each rice season rice is a major export commodity for pakistan generating about 2 5 billion pakistan rupees rs annually or 20 of foreign exchange earnings from commodity trade in the early 1980s two varieties dominate in pakistan s international trade in rice basmati 370 a high quality long grained aromatic variety and the medium long grained irri 6 distinct export markets exist for these rices over 90 of the basmati is exported to oil rich middle eastern nations while the mediumlong varieties are mainly marketed in southeast asia in 1983 the export price of basmati was about rs 7 900 per ton while the price of medium long grained varieties averaged rs 2 700 per ton pakistan has a comparative advantage in the international market for basmati but probably not for medium long grained rices azhar and mamhud historically pakistan had a near monopoly in international trade in basmati but now faces increased competition from thailand and the united states efferson therefore pakistan must strive to increase the efficiency of basmati production to retain its comparative advantage and competitive edge in foreign rice markets basmati 370 is a pure line selection made in

the extent of resource use inefficiencies in cotton production in pakistan s punjab an application of data envelopment analysis abstract this paper attempts to identify sources of resource use inefficiency for cotton production in pakistan s punjab the use of a non parametric method data envelopment analysis dea is developed to study the relative technical and allocative efficiencies of individual farms which use similar inputs produce the same product and operate under comparable circumstances in the cotton wheat system of pakistan there are a considerable number of farms that are both technically and allocatively inefficient the use of dea shows that the technique provides a clear identification of both the extent and the sources of technical and allocative inefficiencies in cotton production however both the interpretation of the farm level results generated and the projection of these results to a higher level require care given the technical nature of the agricultural production processes

keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area the global financial crisis has led to a renewed interest in discretionary fiscal stimulus advocates of discretionary measures emphasize that government spending can stimulate additional private spending the keynesian multiplier effect thus we investigate whether the spending package announced by euro area governments for 2009 and 2010 is likely to boost gdp by more than one for one because of modelling uncertainty it is essential that such policy evaluations be robust to alternative modelling assumptions and parameterizations we use five different empirical macroeconomic models with keynesian features such as price and wage rigidities to evaluate the impact of the fiscal stimulus four of them suggest that the planned increase in government spending will reduce private consumption and investment significantly only a model that largely ignores the forward looking behavioural response of consumers and firms implies crowding in of private spending we review a range of issues that may play a role in the recession of 2008 2009 implementation lags are found to reinforce crowding out and may even cause an initial contraction zero bound effects may lead the central bank to abstain from interest rate hikes and increase the gdp impact of government spending crowding in however requires an immediate anticipation of at least two years at the zero bound using a multi country model we find that spillovers between euro area countries are negligible or even negative because direct demand effects are offset by the indirect effect of a euro appreciation new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models provide a strong case for government savings packages announced with sufficient lead time spending cuts induce a significant short run stimulus and crowding in of private spending tobias cwik and volker wieland

education experience and allocative efficiency a dual approach a generalization of the dual non frontier profit function approach to evaluating allocative efficiency is developed that allows for training human capital variables to influence the efficiency level directly an application to pennsylvania dairy indicates that education and experience are substitutes and play a significant role in the level of efficiency while these operators are not allocating their variable inputs in an absolutely efficient manner relative efficiency can be achieved for four of six possible input combinations for prescribed levels of education and experience furthermore the estimates of the efficiency measures suggest that these operators are maximizing production rather than short run profits

output effects of government purchases the theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases under plausible conditions the temporary case involves an output response that is positive less than one to one with the change in government purchases and larger than that generated by an equal sized but permanent shift in purchase the equilibrium real rate of return rise in the temporary case but changes little in the permanent one defense purchases are divided empirically into permanent and temporary components by considering the role of temporary wars no temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases the results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally supportive of the theory

how to define and study farmers management capacity theory and use in agricultural economics textbooks and articles on farm management stress the importance of the management capacity of the farmer with respect to his farm results however explicit definitions together with an elaboration of this concept are hard to find in this article aspects of management capacity are grouped into 1 personal aspects consisting of farmer s drives and motivations farmer s abilities and capabilities and his biographical facts such as age and education and 2 aspects of the decision making process consisting of practices and procedures with respect to planning implementation and control of decisions at the farm empirical studies on the role of management capacity in relation to farm results are reviewed frontier production functions are widely used in recent literature to estimate technical and economic efficiency of farms however in explaining differences in efficiency most studies do not go further than adding a biographical variable e g level of education this study concludes that a next step would be to include aspects of the decision making process longitudinal on farm observations which give possibilities for studying the dynamic aspects of the decision making are suggested to further analyze the concept of management capacity

risk and hedging do credit derivatives increase bank risk abstract the objective of this paper is to investigate whether financial innovation of credit derivatives makes banks more exposed to credit risk although credit derivatives are important for hedging and securitizing credit risk and thereby likely to enhance the sharing of such risk some commentators have raised concerns that they may destabilize the banking sector this paper investigates this issue in a simple model driven by costs of financial distress the analysis identifies two effects of credit derivatives innovation they enhance risk sharing as suggested by the hedging argument but they also make further acquisition of risk more attractive the latter effect if dominant can therefore destabilize the banking sector the critical factor is perhaps surprisingly the competitive nature of the existing underlying credit markets as these markets become more elastic the threat of destabilization increases the paper discusses issues related to bank regulation within the context of the model

the influence of management characteristics on the technical efficiency of wheat farmers in eastern england technical efficiency of wheat farms in eastern england is measured through the estimation of a stochastic frontier production function using panel data for the 1993 1997 crop years variations in the technical efficiency index across production units are explained through a number of managerial and farm characteristic variables following battese and coelli 1995 empirical econ 20 325 332 and incorporating the spirit of rougoor et al 1998 agric econ 18 261 272 the technical efficiency index across production units ranges from 62 to 98 the objectives of maximising annual profits and maintaining the environment are positively correlated with and have the largest influence on technical efficiency moreover those farmers who seek information have more years of managerial experience and have a large farm are also associated with higher levels of technical efficiency future studies that seek to explain variation in technical efficiency should include further aspects of the managerial decision making process

macroeconomic effects from government purchases and taxes for u s annual data that include world war ii the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0 4 0 5 contemporaneously and 0 6 0 7 over 2 years if the change in defense spending is permanent gauged by ramey s defense news variable the multipliers are higher by 0 1 0 2 since all estimated multipliers are significantly less than 1 greater spending crowds out other components of gdp particularly investment the lack of good instruments prevents estimation of reliable multipliers for nondefense purchases multipliers in the literature of two or more likely reflect reverse causation from gdp to nondefense purchases increases in average marginal income tax rates measured by a newly constructed time series have significantly negative effects on gdp when interpreted as a tax multiplier the magnitude is around 1 1 the combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that the balanced budget multiplier for defense spending is negative we have some evidence that tax changes affect gdp mainly through substitution effects rather than wealth effects

a top down approach to multiname credit a multiname credit derivative is a security that is tied to an underlying portfolio of corporate bonds and has payoffs that depend on the loss due to default in the portfolio the value of a multiname derivative depends on the distribution of portfolio loss at multiple horizons intensity based models of the loss point process that are specified without reference to the portfolio constituents determine this distribution in terms of few economically meaningful parameters and lead to computationally tractable derivatives valuation problems however these models are silent about the portfolio constituent risks they cannot be used to address applications that are based on the relationship between portfolio and component risks for example constituent risk hedging this paper develops a method that extends these models to the constituents we use random thinning to decompose the portfolio intensity into a sum of constituent intensities we show that a thinning process which allocates the portfolio intensity to constituents uniquely exists and is a probabilistic model for the next to default we derive a formula for the constituent default probability in terms of the thinning process and the portfolio intensity and develop a semi analytical transform approach to evaluate it the formula leads to a calibration scheme for the thinning processes and an estimation scheme for constituent hedge sensitivities an empirical analysis for september 2008 shows that the constituent hedges generated by our method outperform the hedges prescribed by the gaussian copula model which is widely used in practice

multiplicador del gasto publico en argentina this paper provides the first empirical estimates of argentina s public sector spending multiplier using a structural vector autoregression methodology svars at the same time it exploits the economic classification of expenditures to make a very interesting contribution by differentiating the multiplier between consumption expenditure and capital expenditure public investment results support the great importance of such differentiation as consumption spending has moderate effects on output while public investment has much more expansive macroeconomic effects resulting from the synergies it generates with the private sector these facts reveal the importance of thinking public and private sectors as complements rather than substitutes or rivals and the need to abandon the pro cyclical fiscal policies are emphasized

price distortions and resource use efficiency in indian agriculture a restricted profit function approach this paper develops a generalized profit function that incorporates price distortions resulting from imperfect market conditions sociopolitical and institutional constraints as well as technical and allocative inefficiency the model is applied to test 1 the appropriateness of the neoclassical profit function and 2 the effect of education and farm size on allocative performance using farm level data from indian agriculture empirical results reject the neoclassical profit maximization hypothesis based on market prices in favor of the general model with price distortions and therefore help to improve allocation of inputs and output farm size is found to reduce price distortions only for small farmers copyright 1992 by mit press

measuring managerial efficiency the case of commercial greenhouse growers abstract recently the managerial decision making process has been given new attention both in theoretical studies as well as in empirical research explaining differences in farm results however while critical to explaining efficiency managerial ability has been difficult to measure and therefore often ignored this study attempts to measure managerial ability it divides the decision making process into four steps goal formulation planning monitoring and evaluation the quality of each step is measured in a panel of 26 specialised flower producers the impact of decision making on the firms efficiencies is measured by means of a stochastic frontier production function a one step procedure is used in which technical and decision making parameters are jointly estimated the results show positive associations between firm efficiency and the quality of decision making especially monitoring and firm evaluation indicating that this procedure has been potentially successful and is a move towards successfully measuring a critical input

access to credit plot size and cost inefficiency among smallholder tobacco cultivators in malawi abstract using data from the malawi financial markets and household food security survey this paper examines the effect of access to credit from formal sources and tobacco plot size on cost inefficiency among malawian smallholder tobacco cultivators farm specific cost inefficiency is estimated within the framework of stochastic frontier analysis access to credit is measured as the sum of household members self reported credit limits at credit organisations arguably a truer measure of an exogenous credit constraint than credit program participation or actual loan uptake it is found that tobacco cultivation is significantly less cost inefficient per acre on larger plots while access to credit by itself has no statistically discernible effect on cost inefficiency it reduces the gain in cost efficiency from a larger plot size

hedging structured credit products during the credit crisis a horse race of 10 models abstract pricing and hedging structured credit products poses major challenges to financial institutions this paper puts several valuation approaches through a crucial test how did these models perform in one of the worst periods of economic history september 2008 when lehman brothers went under did they produce reasonable hedging strategies we study several bottom up and top down credit portfolio models and compute the resulting delta hedging strategies using either index contracts or a portfolio of single name cds contracts as hedging instruments we compute the profit and loss profiles and assess the performances of these hedging strategies among all 10 pricing models that we consider the student t copula model performs best the dynamical generalized poisson loss model is the best top down model but this model class has in general problems to hedge equity tranches our major finding is however that single name and index cds contracts are not appropriate instruments to hedge cdo tranches

what are the effects of fiscal policy shocks we propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions specifically we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock while controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock we explicitly allow for the possibility of announcement effects i e that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future but not at present we construct the impulse responses to three linear combinations of these fiscal shocks corresponding to the three scenarios of deficit spending deficit financed tax cuts and a balanced budget spending expansion we apply the method to us quarterly data from 1955 to 2000 we find that deficit financed tax cuts work best among these three scenarios to improve gdp with a maximal present value multiplier of five dollars of total additional gdp per each dollar of the total cut in government revenue 5 years after the shock copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

frontier production functions and technical efficiency a survey of empirical applications in agricultural economics abstract the modelling and estimation of frontier production functions has been an important area of econometric research during the last two decades forsund lovell and schmidt 1980 and schmidt 1986 present reviews of the concepts and models involved and cite some of the empirical applications which had appeared to their respective times of publication this paper seeks to update the econometric modelling of frontier production functions associated with the estimation of technical efficiency of individual firms a survey of empirical applications in agricultural economics is an important part of the paper

fiscal policy in general equilibrium this paper studies four classic fiscal policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model the authors main findings are as follows 1 permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short run and long run output multipliers that exceed one 2 permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes 3 the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases and 4 public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment these findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy copyright 1993 by american economic association

tax multipliers pitfalls in measurement and identification abstract to analyze the pitfalls in measuring and identifying tax shocks we build a novel value added tax rate dataset for the period 1980 2009 the problem of identification i e changes in tax policy not triggered by output fluctuations is clearly disentangled from the problem of measurement i e finding a tax policy variable under the direct control of policymakers on the identification front our results favor the use of narratives a la romer and romer 2010 on the measurement front our findings support the use of tax rates as the true measure of tax policy as opposed to revenue based measures such as cyclically adjusted revenues

efficiency estimation in a profit maximising model using flexible production function abstract this paper uses a flexible translog production function to estimate efficiency of 227 farms from west bengal india we consider estimation of technical and allocative inefficiencies using a profit maximising framework which accommodates both endogenous and exogenous inputs the maximum likelihood method of estimation developed in this paper is based on the production function and the first order conditions of profit maximisation farm specific technical and allocative inefficiencies are also estimated empirical results show that the mean level of technical efficiency is 75 46 while the best farm is 85 87 efficient technically so far as allocative efficiency is concerned the majority of the farms are found to be under users of the endogenous inputs viz fertiliser manure human and bullock labour