forest incomes and rural livelihoods in chiradzulu district malawi abstract this paper examines forest income among rural dwellers in one of malawi s most densely populated districts chiradzulu 160 households were interviewed in two sites only 20 km apart purposely selected on the basis of access to a forest reserve people are extremely poor with 97 having incomes of less than 1 usd day forest income constitutes around 15 of total income only non farm income 47 and agriculture 28 rank higher the poorest segment depends more on forest income than the least poor group but the medium income group exhibits the highest dependence fuelwood constitutes the major source of such income followed by fodder the incomes mainly support current consumption people with better access to the forest reserve have higher total income forest income and relative forest income as revealed through a gini coefficient analysis forest resources have an important income equalizing effect across rural households a particular group of resource poor farmers 8 1 of sample with little access to agricultural land and a high representation of female heads derives an average of 65 of their income from the forest an important policy lesson is that restricting people s access to forest resources can have substantial effects on household livelihoods and welfare and would serve to increase income inequalities in the area livelihood researchers should now recognize the substantial income from forest resources

aid volatility policy and development summary we build on bulir and hamann s analysis of aid volatility bulir a hamann j 2003 aid volatility an empirical assessment imf staff papers 50 1 64 89 bulir a hamann j 2008 volatility of development aid from the frying pan into the fire washington dc imf paper submitted to this special section showing that the conclusions reached depend on the dataset used their argument that the poorest countries have the highest volatility appears not to be correct the impact of volatility on growth is negative overall but differs between positive and negative volatility the mix between responsive components of aid for example programme aid and proactive components for example technical assistance is important finally we conclude that measures which increase trust between donor and recipient and reductions in the degree of donor oligopoly reduce aid volatility without obviously reducing its effectiveness

north south trade export led growth with abundant labour abstract a north south model is developed in which the south is represented as a neo classical dual economy conditions are imposed which make temporary equilibrium unique and walrasian stable and long run balanced growth paths globally asymptotically stable in the short run an expansion of northern demand for southern products always improves the terms of trade in the long run however an increase in the growth rate of northern demand can turn the terms of trade against the south reduce real wages and lower living standards

analyzing nutritional impacts of policies an empirical study for malawi summary widespread malnutrition in developing countries calls for appropriate strategies presupposing good knowledge about nutritional impacts of policies little previous work has been carried out in this direction especially with respect to micronutrients we use representative household data from malawi and develop a demand systems approach to estimate income and price elasticities of food demand and nutrient consumption these estimates are applied for policy simulations given multiple nutritional deficiencies income related policies are better suited than price policies to improve nutrition while consumer price subsidies for maize improve calorie and mineral consumption they can worsen vitamin consumption in urban areas

food insecurity poverty and the malawian starter pack fresh start or false start abstract chronic food insecurity and chronic poverty are closely related in malawi since independence in 1964 national food security has been a key policy objective however until the 1990s less emphasis was placed on the household dimensions of food security and its links with chronic poverty in the last decade a number of initiatives have been used in malawi to tackle the issue of household food insecurity one of the most controversial has been the starter pack programme launched in 1998 initially consisting of a free handout of packs of improved maize seed legumes and fertiliser to every small holder farm household in malawi the scheme under donor pressure was subsequently scaled down to become a form of targeted social safety net programme this paper analyses the strengths and weakness of both the original programme and its scaled down version and assesses the reason for the considerable opposition to the programme from malawi s donor community although starter pack is no longer operative in malawi the malawian experience is used to derive lessons for other countries where household food insecurity is an important dimension of chronic poverty

green revolution in sub saharan africa implications of imposed innovation for the wellbeing of rural smallholders green revolution policies are again being pursued to drive agricultural growth and reduce poverty in sub saharan africa however conditions have changed since the well documented successes of the 1960s and 1970s benefitted smallholders in southern asia and beyond we argue that under contemporary constraints the mechanisms for achieving improvements in the lives of smallholder farmers through such policies are unclear and that both policy rationale and means of governing agricultural innovation are crucial for pro poor impacts to critically analyze rwanda s green revolution policies and impacts from a local perspective a mixed methods multidimensional wellbeing approach is applied in rural areas in mountainous western rwanda here malthusian policy framing has been used to justify imposed rather than induced innovation the policies involve a substantial transformation for rural farmers from a traditional polyculture system supporting subsistence and local trade to the adoption of modern seed varieties inputs and credit in order to specialize in marketable crops and achieve increased production and income although policies have been deemed successful in raising yields and conventionally measured poverty rates have fallen over the same period such trends were found to be quite incongruous with local experiences disaggregated results reveal that only a relatively wealthy minority were able to adhere to the enforced modernization and policies appear to be exacerbating landlessness and inequality for poorer rural inhabitants negative impacts were evident for the majority of households as subsistence practices were disrupted poverty exacerbated local systems of knowledge trade and labor were impaired and land tenure security and autonomy were curtailed in order to mitigate the effects we recommend that inventive pro poor forms of tenure and cooperation none of which preclude improvements to input availability market linkages and infrastructure may provide positive outcomes for rural people and importantly in rwanda for those who have become landless in recent years we conclude that policies promoting a green revolution in sub saharan africa should not all be considered to be pro poor or even to be of a similar type but rather should be the subject of rigorous impact assessment such assessment should be based not only on consistent objective indicators but pay attention to localized impacts on land tenure agricultural practices and the wellbeing of socially differentiated people

getting agriculture moving do markets provide the right signals abstract political discrimination has often pushed the domestic value of agriculture in developing countries below its value in markets at the border this paper seeks to explain the reasons why border prices themselves undervalue the linkages that agriculture has to economic growth in the early stages of development if agriculture is critically important to stimulating and sustaining rapid economic growth those countries that fail to correct this discrimination exact a heavy toll in economic performance furthermore the poorest countries will suffer the most agricultural development and development of the non agricultural economy are closely linked the traditional market mediated linkages form the core of economic analysis of the role of agriculture in economic development providing labour for an industrial work force food for an expanding population with higher incomes savings for industrial investments markets for industrial output export earnings to pay for imported capital goods and raw materials for agro processing industries a second category of linkages is not well mediated by market forces even when markets are working well the impact of agricultural growth on the rest of the economy through non market linkages can be traced using a simple growth accounting framework that examines contributions to the labour force capital investment and the productivity with which these two physical factors are utilised several linkages stand out as likely to be important and potentially measurable because they draw on the efficiency of decision making in rural households the low opportunity cost of their labour resources the opportunity for farm investment without financial intermediaries the potential to earn high rates of return on public investments that correct for urban bias the contribution of food price stability to increased efficiency in investment decisions and the impact of growth in food production on widespread improvement in nutrient intake and labour productivity each of these factors alone as public investment and favourable policy stimulate growth in the agricultural sector should cause an increase in the efficiency of resource allocation and thus higher total factor productivity several of these mechanisms will also serve to speed factor accumulation by increasing the savings rate or improving factor mobility

the economics of development a survey i the subject our definition of the subject will be the use of economic analysis to understand the economies of poor or developing countries this includes in particular how standards of living in the population are determined and how they change over time and further how policy can or should be used in the influence of these processes the definition contains in principle much or most of analytical methods in economics insofar as they can be put to use in the examination of the issues of interest this is as it should be but it poses a problem for a survey in a journal a comprehensive treatment is infeasible so we shall follow a different route the survey will focus on what i take to be the major themes and approaches which characterise the productive aspects of the subject there is therefore no pretence at being exhaustive the purpose is rather to highlight some of the advances many of these have been of real substance there are a number of possible purposes for a survey and it is important to be clear at the outset for whom it is intended what it is and what it is not this survey is addressed to economists and students of economics who know the tools of their trade but not necessarily how they have been applied to and fashioned for the analysis of the economics of developing countries it is a description of the ways in which problems can be productively formulated and approached in terms of examples chosen for their intrinsic importance and interest the vastness of the subject means that we have to be highly selective it does not seek to provide a summary evaluation of the current view of the appropriate response to immediate policy questions it is not a history of thought nor a research manifesto nor an attempt to adjudicate or settle the major debates where they arise naturally from the major purpose some judgements on these subjects will be offered but they do not themselves constitute the primary intent of this survey there are three lines of enquiry or sets of questions which have i suggest been distinctive of the most fruitful work in development economics they will

is women s ownership of land a panacea in developing countries evidence from land owning farm households in malawi our analysis of a rich representative household survey for malawi where patrilineal and matrilineal institutions coexist suggests that in matrilineal societies the likelihood of high value crop cultivation by a household increases with the extent of land owned by males while the income generated from high value crop production decreases with the amount of land owned by females and the cultivation of high value crops increases household welfare the policy implication is that facilitating female ownership of assets through informal and formal institutions does not on its own increase welfare when appropriate complementary resources and institutions are absent

impact of improved maize adoption on welfare of farm households in malawi a panel data analysis summary this paper assesses rural households decision to use improved maize varieties in malawi and examines its impact on household welfare using a three year household panel data the distributional effect of maize technology adoption is investigated by looking at impacts across wealth and gender groups we applied control function approach and iv regression to control for possible endogeneity of input subsidy and area under improved maize we found that area under improved maize varieties is positively correlated with own maize consumption income and asset holdings we found evidence that improved maize adoption has a stronger impact on welfare of poorer households

the stagnation of smallholder agriculture in malawi a decade of structural adjustment abstract malawi s efforts at structural adjustment have revolved around reforming the marketing and pricing of outputs and inputs in smallholder agriculture in practice the price oriented adjustment policies were not thorough enough and have led to disappointing results there is clearly a need to push for further reforms in pricing however structural adjustment in malawi will have to go beyond just getting prices right policies must also concentrate on structural and institutional weaknesses that constrain smallholder agriculture and contribute to widespread food insecurity and malnutrition

approaches to uprooting poverty in africa abstract poverty in africa is primarily a rural phenomenon its growing incidence is partly due to slow growth in gdp induced by economic policies that discriminated against agriculture urban bias in social spending has left the rural poor with little or no access to basic needs technological change improved rural infrastructure and an efficient marketing environment are needed to enhance agricultural growth and maximize returns to the rural producer improving the human capital of the rural poor will expand their employment opportunities cost effective transfer programmes would provide a safety net for the vulnerable poor

rural income and poverty in a time of radical change in malawi abstract malawi is one of the poorest countries in africa there is widespread though not universal agreement about the shape of poverty in the country and the policy challenge this sets agriculture continues to be the most obvious means to stimulate broad based rural growth and to provide levels of food security and income needed for the majority rural population a longitudinal study over a decade during which radical policy and political changes occurred provides the data and basis for discussing the appropriate policy directions for reducing poverty

the effectiveness of structural adjustment lending initial evidence from malawi abstract the world bank s new programs of structural adjustment lending are likely to prove most effective with those governments which demonstrate shared ideals in their approach to economic adjustment and policy reform malawi has long been regarded as a country placing great reliance on the market in resource allocation showing restraint in public sector expansion and retaining a strong export orientation the balance of payments difficulties and the deterioration in economic circumstances which began in 1980 did not arise solely from external shocks but the structural adjustment lending programs introduced in 1981 as a means of easing the painful reform process found root in a fertile and responsive policy environment this paper chronicles the first two sals to malawi reviewing in particular the specific policy reforms advocated and required by the bank the extent of their implementation and the provisional effects on the malawi economy

modelling the impact of world bank policy based lending the case of malawi s agricultural sector this article uses a multi market agricultural pricing model to analyse the impact of the world bank s three structural adjustment loans sals to malawi on the smallholder agricultural sector three price policy scenarios are simulated on the model representing zero partial and full compliance with the bank s sal price policy conditionality these scenarios are analysed in terms of their impact on the government budget smallholder real incomes maize production exportable cash crop production and the balance of payments critiques of the bank s programme and the government and bank bargaining strategies are assessed in the light of the modelling results

terms of trade and domestic distribution export led growth with abundant labour abstract a general equilibrium macro model is constructed to explore effects of export led growth policies on the terms of trade and the domestic distribution of a developing region with abundant labour this region the south trades with another the north they have different technologies and supplies of factors it is shown that under certain conditions of dualism in the production of goods and of abundant labour supply in the south an increase in the volume of exports from the south may bring about a sustained worsening of the south s terms of trade with the north even if this increase in exports is due to a positive shift in demand from the north this change in the terms of trade is accompanied by a sustained loss of purchasing power of wages within the south these results take place in a walrasian stable market when technologies are more homogenous and labour less abundant the results are reversed increased exports will take place together with improvements in terms of trade and a tendency to equalise factor prices between the regions the results argue for coordination of domestic and international policies with special attention to technologies and labour markets

distributional effects of maize price increases in malawi abstractin the wake of highly volatile world prices of staple commodities we examine the impacts of increases in maize prices on various categories of households in malawi using household level data changes in household income are calculated taking into account the net maize production status of the household and food price elasticities estimated from a censored demand system while maize price increases have unequivocal deleterious effects on the incomes of urban households rural households experience differential impacts net producing households in rural areas benefit from price increases with households above the poverty line obtaining proportionally higher incomes

malawi reforming the state s role in agricultural marketing abstract the role of the state in agricultural marketing activities has been a contentious issue in many countries undergoing structural adjustment this paper examines three examples of smallholder market reform in malawi to illustrate the case for various forms of state involvement and the complexities involved in reducing the state s role when this is required

comparative risk aversion abstract even when some risk prospects have no certain equivalents increases in risk aversion are equivalent to concave transformations of the utility function strict or sharp increases in risk aversion correspond to concave and non linear or strictly concave transformations respectively

the impact of agricultural liberalisation on food security in malawi abstract the donor supported structural adjustment programmes have not impacted favourably on livelihoods food security and the general welfare of the poor in malawi this resulted from the prescription of wrong policy packages and limited attention to poverty alleviation policies policies have tended to concentrate on promoting market and price mechanisms less on addressing production constraints and non economic barriers to broad based economic growth there are losers and winners as a result of policy reforms in agricultural produce marketing the losers are mainly the smallholder farmers in the category of net food buyers low income or wage earners in urban and semi urban areas and smallholder farmers in remote areas the winners are smallholder farmers in the category of net food sellers private traders institutional traders and the state marketing agency the paper analyses the impact of pricing policy and market deregulation on the state marketing organisation and on the private marketing system highlighting the lessons to be learned and making recommendations on how to improve the food security situation at the household level

food marketing and pricing policy in eastern and southern africa a survey abstract this article surveys the empirical record of grain marketing and pricing policy in eastern and southern africa over 1930 1995 the paper addresses five key issues with major implications for food policy throughout africa a why the anticipated supply response to market liberalization has not yet occurred b why the common assumption of state taxation of farmers to support a cheap food policy does not apply in most of the countries in the region c why the temporary successes of the state led approach to stimulating smallholder grain production were unsustainable d why the elimination of government food subsidies associated with market reform has not adversely affected consumers and e why the fiscal cost of the marketing systems at least initially worsened rather than improved after the reforms were implemented in most countries the key future challenges for marketing policy are how to develop coordinated and financially sustainable input finance and commodity marketing systems for raising productivity growth in smallholder agriculture while overcoming inherited agricultural dualism and how to mitigate the effects of food price instability in a cost effective manner

how is the liberalization of food markets progressing market integration and transaction costs in subsistence economies we propose a modification of baulch s parity bounds model to measure the market integration of food markets in developing countries instead of extrapolating a single observation of transaction costs we estimate transaction costs predicted transaction costs compare well with survey data of traders probabilities of market regimes computed on the basis of predicted transaction costs fluctuate significantly and do not support fixed regime probabilities over time the probability of market integration with trade decreases consistently during food shortages increasing either the probability of no trade or loss making trade or the probability of profitable but unexploited trade opportunities the data further support a negative trend in market integration with trade

export led growth with abundant labour a defense of orthodoxy abstract using a general equilibrium model of north south trade graciela chichilnisky has concluded that if dualism and labour abundance in the south are sufficiently pronounced the export supply curve of that region will be negatively sloped and as a result the familiar neoclassical results of an increase in the north s demand for these exports and of an export policy in the south are reversed we show that the neoclassical results are valid whether or not the supply curve is downward sloping

u turns and full circles two decades of agricultural reform in malawi 1981 2000 abstract this paper traces the evolution of malawi s agricultural policy over the past two decades during this period the world bank has played a key role in shaping policy reform through its adjustment loans three distinct reform phases can be identified 1981 87 when policy was dominated by the dogmatism of the world bank s pricist and state minimalist policies 1988 94 when a more flexible position was taken by both the bank and the malawi government both of whom acknowledged the structuralist critique of earlier policies and 1994 to the present when the reform process in agriculture became more politicized and a schism developed between the bank and the government this latter period is used to illustrate some of the unresolved policy issues pertaining to similar low income agrarian economies

structural change in malawi since independence consequences of a development strategy based on large scale agriculture abstract this paper investigates the nature of the structural change which has occured in the malawian economy since independence and identifies key policies pursued by the government which it is argued have been decisive in shaping this development the salient feature of structural change is shown to be the rapid growth of large scale agriculture associated with an equally rapid transfer of labour into wage employment and a decline in the importance of peasant production the implications of these changes for living standards and future development and policy are considered

a comparative political economic analysis of maize sector policies in eastern and southern africa abstract maize sector policies in eastern and southern africa are characterized by a large and often growing presence of the state yet the scope scale and modalities of state activities vary substantially across countries drawing on data from malawi zambia kenya and mozambique this article compares the relative degree of state intervention in the maize sector we show that relative preferences for output market subsidies input market subsidies trade restrictions or non interventionist approaches reflect the interplay of interest group lobbying patronage networks and ethnic and regional political affiliations these relationships have deep historical roots and have often been intensified in the context of the emergence of multiparty politics we show that interventionist orientations in output markets and trade do not translate into better performance or welfare outcomes input subsidy preferences produce more ambiguous welfare results when the opportunity costs are not fully accounted for

the privatization of agricultural trading in malawi abstract this paper examines the privatization of smallholder agricultural output marketing in malawi despite problems with implementing the privatization program including serious disruptions in the supply of maize the staple food the move toward greater private sector involvement in agricultural marketing has been successful nonetheless several medium term development issues e g food security and buyer and seller of last resort functions need to be addressed in the context of relations between the marketing parastatal admarc and the private sector before the policy change can be regarded as fully successful

a natural experiment for identifying the impact of natural trade barriers on exports abstract the paper investigates the relative importance of trade policy and natural sources of export taxation in malawi a landlocked african economy these sources of export taxation are in turn used to explore how export supply would respond to trade liberalisation as opposed to measures which lower other international trade costs the findings indicate that trade policy barriers are now only a limited source of true export taxation and that trade policy reform needs to be complemented with reforms to reduce international trade including transport costs

risk sensitivity in bargaining with more than two participants abstract in two person bargaining over riskless outcomes where the outcome is chosen according to the nash solution or the kalai smorodinsky solution an increase in a player s risk aversion is to the advantage of the opponent it is shown in this note that for the n person nash solution an increase in risk aversion is to the player s own disadvantage but needs not be advantageous to all the opponents for the n person kalai smorodinsky solution the increase is to the player s own disadvantage and to the advantage of all the opponents

credit program participation and child schooling in rural malawi summary we evaluate the impact of agricultural credit program participation on children s school attendance in rural malawi our paired site sampling survey reveals that credit uptake decreased school attendance by young girl children this finding raises concerns that young girl children are exploited as child labor either at home or in the field when working adults become more involved in income generating activities financed by credit the data however do not show clear evidence for young girls staying at home to do household chores or working in the fields in households that obtained credit but instead find simultaneous occurrence between attending school and taking responsibilities for domestic chores by young children it would appear therefore that credit uptake delays the realization of this concurrence among young girl children and leads to delayed school enrollment

agricultural commercialisation and food security in rural economies malawian experience this paper contributes to the debate on the nutrition related outcomes of cash crop adoption by using a model with essential heterogeneity and a semi parametric estimation technique the model expl

the pareto principle of optimal inequality the pareto principle is often viewed as a mild requirement compatible with a variety of value judgements in particular it is generally thought that it can accommodate different views on the desirable degree of equality we show that this is generally not true in intertemporal models where some uncertainty prevails to do so we formalize the concept of inequality aversion we show that different degrees of inequality aversion are not possible in typical models of time consistent dynamic decision under uncertainty

the political economy of policies for smallholder agriculture summary as the experience of the 20th century has shown implementing policies that increase agricultural productivity among smallholders is a particularly promising strategy to achieve pro poor growth however history also reveals major political challenges to adopting this strategy the paper compares the experience of asian countries that were able to launch a smallholder based green revolution with the experience of african countries that are still struggling with this goal it then reviews the political economy literature to identify the factors that account for these divergent experiences finally the paper develops a conceptual framework to guide empirical research to close the knowledge gaps identified by the review

graciela chichilnisky s model of north south trade abstract the model of the effects of north south trade set out by chichilnisky in the april 1981 issue of the journal of development economics is shown to contain a number of errors the model is presented anew in this note after corrections are made one can still obtain results similar in spirit to some of those chichilnisky tried to derive although the interpretation of the cause of the results must be substantially altered in particular it is shown that for appropriate parameter values in this model one will find that it is possible for an increase in the demand for the good the north exports to lead to 1 a worsening of the terms of trade for the south 2 a worsening of the distribution of factor incomes in the north and in the south 3 a reduction in the total export revenues of the south and 4 at the same time an increase in the physical volume of the south s exports the cause is in essence a shift in world demand from the good the south exports to the good the north exports which leads to a terms of trade loss for the south income effects following from the terms of trade loss then lead to a situation where the south s own demand for its export good falls by more than its supply thus leading to the preverse effect of an increase in the volume of its exports the paper also considers the model of chichilnisky and cole 1978 this model is similar to that of chichilnisky 1981 and is used to examine the same issues but is closed in a different way it is shown that this second model may give similar results as the first but that also a quite different set of results is now possible closure is therefore shown to play a key role

a time of agric rethinking the failure of agricultural programs in 1970s ghana summary recent interest in a new green revolution in africa has revived debate about state intervention in agricultural markets and biotechnology these debates take for granted that the first wave of green revolution interventions in africa failed to influence small scale food farmers this essay uses oral historical and documentary evidence from ghana s northern region to revisit the evidentiary basis of this assessment tracing how the production of aggregate data and changing interpretive frameworks in the 1970s and 1980s allowed policymakers to ignore the experiences of farmers the essay advocates for the role of micro historical analysis in assessing africa s recent agricultural past

heterogeneity of commercialization gains in the rural economy farmers in low income rural economies often fail to switch to cash crops from staple production despite the positive income effects of commercialization expected by policy makers the literature suggests that market failures prevent households from cash crop adoption but remains inconclusive regarding farmers motives and the effects of commercialization this article contributes to the debate by offering an original approach to the analysis of commercialization outcomes and farmers decisions it consists of applying a model with essential heterogeneity and a semiparametric estimation technique to analyzing harvest value returns to cash cropping using malawian data we show considerable heterogeneity in harvest value returns to cash cropping both within and between groups of farmers choosing different crop portfolios importantly the results imply rational choices based on comparative advantage considerations of farming households farmers self select into the activity where they expect higher gains and adopt cash crops when facing weaker market barriers

terms of trade and domestic distribution a comment abstract this note comments on a paper by chichilnisky in the april 1981 issue of this journal it is shown that within the context of her model a rightward shift in the demand curve of the north for exports from the south can never result in a worsening of the terms of trade for the south it is however possible that the quantity of exports from the south may decline in the new equilibrium due to the income effect of the improved terms of trade

modeling spatial price transmission in the grain markets of ethiopia with an application of ardl approach to white teff following the agricultural market liberalization policy there is an emerging grain market structure in ethiopia in which the central wholesale market exhibits concentration of power and spatial integration with the local markets due to this it is hypothesized that the central wholesale market influences the long run price movements in the local markets the relationship can be modeled as spatial price equilibrium with the aim to guide subsequent policy decisions with regard to public intervention in the post liberalization period in this study we modeled the spatial equilibrium relationship between the producer and the wholesale prices of white teff a major staple in ethiopia using the autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis first the existence of a nonspurious long run relationship in levels between the producer prices in the local market and the wholesale prices in the central market is confirmed second the long run relationship and the error correction model for the producer price are estimated the results reveal that the wholesale price of white teff in the central consumer market is a major short and long run determinant of the producer price in the local supply markets therefore the institutional role of the government with the aim of improving producers marketing margin and the overall performance of the grain markets in the post liberalization period can be influenced through targeted interventions at the central wholesale market

maize is life malawi s delayed green revolution abstract the pattern of maize seed development in malawi demonstrates the importance of farmers capacity to articulate their interests through collective action and institutions despite the vital significance of maize as a wage good in malawi limited effective demand for maize seed research prolonged the period of technical stagnation analysis of the institutional factors shaping the demand for maize seed research complements previous work on malawi s political economy the supply of seed technology and adoption with implications for current political changes in that nation the importance of farmers organizations and state commitment to agricultural research in sub saharan africa

false promise or false premise the experience of food and input market reform in eastern and southern africa abstract the literature on the effects of agricultural market reform in africa is sharply divided and inconsistent this article attempts to reconcile opposing viewpoints on the effects of food and input market policy reform in eastern and southern africa drawing from studies of ethiopia kenya malawi zambia and zimbabwe we argue that a major source of the controversy stems from assumptions that countries have actually moved to a liberalized market environment we find that many of the most fundamental elements of the reform programs either remain unimplemented were reversed within several years or were implemented in such a way as to negate private sector investment incentives a framework is developed for explaining why some countries have been able to liberalize their food and fertilizer markets while others have not these findings have implications for how donor assistance and policy oriented research can more constructively contribute to an improved policy environment

perspectives and problems of development in sub saharan africa this paper analyzes the initial conditions for development facing post colonial african nations outlines alternative development strategies followed by different groups of countries and assesses the consequences for growth and poverty alleviation on the basis of this diagnosis the paper outlines a number of policy priorities for the future including greater research extension and infrastructure support for smallholder agriculture an improvement in the overall structure of incentives in favor of agriculture a more realistic urban formal sector wage structure to reduce rural urban migration and foster a more internationally competitive manufacturing sector and greater emphasis on surplus generation through government budgets and parastatal enterprises

off farm labor supply and correlated shocks new theoretical insights and evidence from malawi abstractwe offer new conceptual insights into the understanding of occupational choice in uncertain rural environments with a focus on its ex ante before a shock and ex post after a shock consequences for farmers belonging to different portions of the asset distribution we model theoretically the choice between relatively safe subsistence farming higher return but higher risk cash crop activities and off farm labor conditional on preexisting asset allocation and look at the general equilibrium labor market implications of correlated shocks our results backed by evidence from malawi challenge some stylized perceptions in the literature on consumption smoothing via off farm labor supply

agricultural incentives in developing countries measuring the effect of sectoral and economywide policies the impact of sector specific direct and economywide indirect policies on agricultural incentives for 18 developing countries for the period 1975 84 are estimated the direct effect is measured by the proportional difference between the producer price and the border price adjusting for distribution storage transport and other marketing costs the indirect effect has two components 1 the impact of the unsustainable portion of the current account deficit and of industrial protection policies on the real exchange rate and thus on the price of agricultural commodities relative to nonagricultural nontradables and 2 the impact of industrial protection policies on the relative price of agricultural commodities to that of nonagricultural tradable goods the authors found that a in almost all cases the direct effect is equivalent to a tax on exportable goods and to a subsidy for importables b the indirect effect also taxes agriculture and dominates the direct effect and c the direct policies for both importables and exportables stabilize domestic producer prices

structural adjustment and the welfare of rural smallholders a comparative analysis from sub saharan africa the direction and level of changes in real incomes brought about by structural adjustment are determined by a variety of factors including sources of income patterns of expenditures and movements in relative prices in the wake of adjustment an econometric model is used to derive an index of real income which is employed for data from cote d ivoire ghana malawi madagascar and tanzania no systematic changes in relative prices and especially in the ratio of tradable to nontradable prices were noted after the beginning of adjustment although the diversity of income sources implies that the implications of movements in relative prices on smallholder welfare are indeed complex the results indicate that there is no unequivocal pattern of increase or decline in the real welfare of the rural poor but that there are marked differences among countries and regions

public expenditures in sub saharan africa during a period of economic reforms abstract public expenditure restraint is the most direct means of reducing balance of payments and budget deficits and is consequently a key aspect of macroeconomic adjustment programs the results of this study indicate a steady increase in total central government and social services spending during 1977 1989 in sub saharan africa the growth in population however contributed to an overall erosion in per capita expenditures while total government expenditures as a share of gdp have been stable during the past decade they have declined net of interest repayments which represent an increasingly large share of total spending an analysis of spending in the three years before and after donor financed adjustment programs began reveals no pattern of increase or decrease in real levels of total and social sector expenditures or in social sector spending as a share of the total expenditures elasticities of health and education spending with respect to gdp were found to be greater than unity in recent years indicating that as countries develop social spending will constitute a larger share of gdp

market emergence and transition arbitrage transaction costs and autarky in china s grain markets using trimonthly chinese provincial grain prices from 1988 to 1995 we estimate a parity bounds model of interregional trade for four subperiods to characterize how multiple aspects of market performance change during the process of economic transition for each period we estimate the extent to which arbitrage opportunities are realized by traders the transaction costs between location pairs and the likelihood that regions do not trade trade restrictions cannot explain the pattern of uneven market development over time infrastructure bottlenecks managerial incentive reforms and production specialization policies all were likely important factors affecting market performance

pricing policies in africa with special reference to agricultural development in malawi abstract microeconomic policy in the controlled market economy of malawi rests upon three fundamental balances these are the food export balance the rural urban income linkage and the domestic donor contribution to development capital there are therefore six major domestic polarities food and exports rural and urban domestic and donor within the microeconomic system any change in one will necessitate changes in the other five or the triplex becomes unbalanced this is the rigidity in the capacity of small economies to adjust

donors and domestic policy makers two worlds in agricultural policy making in recent decades many developing countries have moved from taxing their agricultural sector to subsidizing it a phenomenon referred to as overshooting using ghana and uganda as case study countries this study aims to contribute to explaining this phenomenon by examining the role of policy beliefs the study is based on the advocacy coalition framework and relies on discourse analysis as analytical method in depth interviews with policy actors in both countries served as empirical basis a quantitative analysis of the transcripts was used to identify different discourse coalitions and a qualitative analysis was conducted to examine the discourses and identify their underlying policy beliefs the paper identified far reaching differences in the agricultural policy beliefs between domestic policy makers and donors regarding the question what does it actually take to develop small holder agriculture the evidence from this analysis highlights the role that divergent policy beliefs can play in influencing agricultural policy choices

a note on the generalised measures of risk aversion abstract this paper is concerned with generalised scalar measures of risk aversion a measure r which may meaningfully be applied to both unidimensional risks risk in income or wealth and multidimensional risks has been constructed in case of identical preferences we have also constructed an alternative measure of risk aversion r which is shown to be related to the khilstrom mirman measure this relationship explains the nature of the khilstrom mirman measure

evaluating the effectiveness of inter regional trade and storage in malawi s private sector maize markets abstract this paper evaluates the effectiveness of the private sector maize marketing system in malawi using threshold autoregression models two dimensions of maize market performance are evaluated 1 inter regional trade and spatial price transmission and 2 storage and seasonal price relationships in both cases threshold autoregression models which account for nonlinearities predicted by economic theory are applied results indicate that spatial price transmission and seasonal price patterns in private sector maize markets in malawi are generally consistent with long run competitive inter regional trade and storage behavior and that in most cases shocks to long run equilibrium are arbitraged away quickly this suggests the private sector in malawi is generally doing a good job of transporting maize from surplus to deficit regions and smoothing maize consumption between harvests

north south trade and exported led policies abstract an earlier paper in this journal chichilnisky 1981 formulated a model of north south trade where the south exports a labor intensive commodity in exchange for industrial goods the paper studied moves to new equilibria with higher levels of exports of the south and of industrial demand in the north it was established that with abundant labor and technological dualism such moves lead to more exports but no lower terms of trade consumption and real wages in the south this occurs within walrasian stable and perfectly competitive markets sufficient conditions were also given for the south to improve its terms of trade real wages and consumption through an export expansion this paper comments on several other papers written on these results generalizes the earlier propositions and extends them to a larger class of economies which export labor intensive products but need not have abundant labor it gives a generalization of the earlier results on uniqueness and stability of the equilibria and reports also on recent econometric tests for sri lanka and the u k and numerical simulations of the model

green gold burley tobacco smallholder agriculture and poverty alleviation in malawi abstract the abolition in 1990 of the estate monopoly on cultivation of burley tobacco is expected to play an important role in reducing poverty among smallholders in malawi a nationwide survey in 1993 shows that smallholder households cultivating burley also grow more hybrid maize use more fertilizer and are more food secure but resource poor households particularly those headed by women face land and labor constraints on burley adoption burley and hybrid maize increase the demand for hired labor but not enough to absorb the growth in the rural labor force broad based poverty alleviation requires technology and programs targeted at the majority of smallholders with holdings of 0 5 hectares or less

terms of trade and domestic distribution a comment abstract in a recent issue of this journal chichilnisky 1981 develops a north south two good static model to explore the implications of export led growth policies for the south s terms of trade and income distribution it is my contention that most of the results of this paper are invalid as stated furthermore i claim that the problems with these results are due in good part to mistakes when dealing with the elementary properties of the model namely existence uniqueness and stability of equilibria the first part of this note reviews these properties and the main results of chichilnisky 1981 are discussed in the final part

cash crops in developing countries the issues the facts the policies the issue of cash crops is profoundly controversial the debate uses different definitions of the term and slides across levels of analysis from the household to the international economy it also cuts across arguments crops countries and time periods this paper sets out to order the debate it deals first with definitions and taxonomy and then reviews issues connected with cash crops and a growth b distribution c food security d dependency and e the environment the paper concludes that with appropriate policies cash crops can offer a route to equitable growth