motivations for promoting the consumption of green products in an emerging country exploring attitudes of brazilian consumers abstract understanding the motivations that stimulate green consumption can promote environmental thinking to increase demand especially because the current estimated market share for green products is less than 4 worldwide in this scenario emerging countries have contributed to the increasing levels of consumption and environmental effects culture and socio economic status play a significant role in environmental impacts and influences the consumption of green products the current body of literature lacks studies focused on the attitude of brazilian consumers in relation to these products this research evaluates the elements that motivate the consumption of green product a survey targeting individuals who have consumed these products was performed in the largest city in southern brazil data were analyzed using a factorial analysis and a causal structural equation model was created to evaluate the drivers that promote green consumption the elements of information and knowledge environmental attitude social context and environmental consciousness were strongly correlated with green consumption however the quality and price of green products has shown a weaker relationship with consumption these elements indicated that the individuals in the survey recognize and seek information covering environmental issues are concerned with the health effects associated with the consumption of the goods and reject a brand or company that might have demonstrated inappropriate environmental behaviours also indicate that the relation price versus quality does not play a central role in the decision of consuming green products finally information about these products and their point of sale availability were highlighted as enhancing green consumption this outcome suggests that education might increase green consumption this research contributed to understand the main drivers that support the decision about the green products option made for the surveyed sample from a managerial standpoint improvements in ethical transactions the promotion of socially responsible actions the distribution of appropriate information about green products and the structure of the green supply chain could create new businesses focused on sustainable production and consumption the findings of this research could support future policies and actions focused on providing information and knowledge about environmental and health contribution of the green products to the consumers producers companies and society

pricing and green level decisions of a green supply chain with governmental interventions under fuzzy uncertainties abstract environmental issues make green manufacturing become inevitable and fuzzy uncertainty prevails in supply chain management in order to further promote the development of green supply chain according to channel leadership scenario we develop three game models of a green supply chain with governmental interventions under fuzzy uncertainties of both manufacturing cost and consumer demand we study how prices green levels and expected profits are influenced by channel leadership and governmental interventions green level sensitivity and fuzzy degree of parameters are considered analytical results indicate that manufacturer stackelberg scenario is the inferior structure than other scenarios and retailer stackelberg scenario is superior to other scenarios for all players under the strong governmental interventions then when governmental interventions increase the green level will increase but the tendency of retail price depends on channel leadership governmental interventions are not always beneficial to the green supply chain and the manufacturer further although the government s subsidy is offered to the manufacturer the retailer benefits from it ultimately and further becomes the main puller of the development of green products in addition a relatively high green level floor for subsidy results in the manufacturer s first mover disadvantage

optimal retailer investments in green operations and preservation technology for deteriorating items abstract this paper examines the impact of dynamic retailer investments in green operations while considering the reference price effect a replenishment problem based on joint pricing dynamic investment in green operations preservation technology and optimal replenishment times for deteriorating items is considered as a way to maximize retailer profit in this problem the demand rate depends on the sales and reference prices as well as green concern level optimal control theory is employed to obtain a dynamic investment rate and a simulated annealing algorithm is used to find the solution of the nonlinear constraint optimization problem which determines the price preservation technology investment and replenishment cycle time in addition computational simulations and sensitivity analyses are carried out to offer managerial insights the findings suggest that continuous investment in green operations and preservation technology can significantly improve the retailer s financial performance the consumer reference price is an important influence on the retailer s decision to invest in green operations furthermore results show that the higher price sensitivity of the market always discourages the retailer from investing in green operations the retailer needs to invest more in green operations for products with relatively high unit value

money supply announcements and interest rates another view in this paper i use a new approach to analyze the impact of money supply announcements on the bond market before 1980 the only available work on this subject consisted of a few unpublished papers by conrad 1978 sivesind 1978 and urich 1979 1 more recently published papers by grossman 1981 and urich and wachtel 1981 have appeared roley 1982 extends the grossman study to incorporate data after the federal reserve policy statement of october 6 1979 both grossman and urich and wachtel are primarily concerned with the question of money market efficiency using survey data made available by money market services of san francisco and data on treasury bill yields each finds that the market responds quickly to unanticipated changes in the money supply but that anticipated changes have no effect on interest rates in addition grossman finds that when he adds other variables such as past changes in the money

financial contracting under extreme uncertainty an analysis of brazilian corporate debentures abstract economic volatility high transaction costs and fragile institutions hinder financial contracting in emerging markets these conditions characterize the economy of brazil yet a nascent corporate bond market thrives i analyze 50 brazilian indenture agreements and find that sample debentures are characterized by i features that mitigate inflation risk for investors ii contingent maturity mechanisms that provide periodic opportunities for exit or renegotiation iii a paucity of covenants that restrict the debtor s investment financing and dividend decisions and iv self enforcement mechanisms that avoid reliance on inefficient institutions analysis of these features enhances our understanding of contracting in emerging economies

modelling electric vehicle usage intentions an empirical study in malaysia in the new global economy carbon emission has become an important worldwide issue one key reason for this is the magnification of the transport sector as millions of gasoline based vehicles are plying on roads producing carbon emission throughout day and night in order to impede these vulnerabilities and promote a more sustainable economy one solution is to switch from gasoline based vehicles to using green technology vehicles there is growing agreement that electrification and the ability to decarbonize this sector seems to be significant as it helps to mitigate the high reliance on fossil fuels and reduce carbon emissions the introduction of electric vehicles has led the automotive industry to a whole new echelon one with zero fuel dependency and increased fuel efficiency while the usage of greener and cleaner vehicles such as electric vehicles is well supported with government policies and programmes it is surprising that little information is divulged about the public acceptance of electric vehicles from the social perspective public acceptance and diffusion of this new green technology is relatively fresh and unknown in malaysia in fact public acceptance can appear as a prevailing obstacle for market diffusion and encumber the development of technology adoption the rationale of this paper is to conduct an exploration to determine the key predictors affecting the usage of electric vehicles acceptance in malaysia malaysia has been referred to here as electric vehicles are just being introduced as one of the initiatives to encourage a low fossil carbon technology within the transportation sector more specifically an empirical study using a survey questionnaire was distributed to 1000 private vehicle drivers in malaysia an electric vehicle usage model was proposed based on a literature review and a multiple regression model the results demonstrated that electric vehicles acceptance in malaysia can be explained as being significantly related to social influences performance attributes financial benefits environmental concerns demographics infrastructure readiness and government interventions in addition the study offers a valuable wealth of information on the public acceptance of automotive players planning to market electric vehicles in malaysia it also offers sensible guidelines for the formulation of marketing strategies that will address the real wants and needs of future electric vehicles users in the meanwhile policy makers should concentrate on the appropriate intervention and policy to encourage the development of electric vehicles as part of the strategy towards a transition to a low carbon society in malaysia

sustainable consumption and production in the food supply chain a conceptual framework abstract increased globalization and a growing world population have a great impact on the sustainability of supply chains especially within the food industry the way food is produced processed transported and consumed has a great impact on whether sustainability is achieved throughout the whole food supply chain due to the complexity that persists in coordinating the members of food supply chain food wastage has increased over the past few years to achieve sustainable consumption and production scp food industry stakeholders need to be coordinated and to have their views reflected in an optimized manner however not much research has been done concerning the influence of stakeholders and supply chain members coordination in the food industry s scp context to facilitate the theory development for scp in this work a short literature review on sustainable supply chain management and sustainable supply chains in the food industry is provided to give the reader current knowledge on how the past and current research are introduced in this work following that different theories that drive sustainable consumption and production have been identified and focused as a result theories like the institutional theory dynamic capability theory and stakeholder theory are presented additionally a conceptual framework has been developed by identifying the indicators drivers and barriers based on the stakeholder theory to achieve the scp in food supply chain finally limitations and future scope are discussed

regime changes in international real interest rates are they a monetary phenomenon in this paper we use the bai and perron 1998 2001 2003 methodology to test for multiple structural breaks in the mean real interest rate for 13 industrialized countries we find extensive evidence of structural breaks in the mean real interest rate for all 13 countries in an attempt to explain the breaks in international real interest rates we also test for multiple structural breaks in the mean inflation rate for the 13 countries once again we find extensive evidence of structural breaks in the mean inflation rate for all of the countries interestingly the breaks in inflation rates and real interest rates often coincide with increases decreases in the mean inflation rate as we move from one regime to the next typically associated with decreases increases in the mean real interest rate

inflation and real short term interest rates a kalman filter analysis of the term structure this paper applies the kalman filter technique to look at the relationship among real interest rates inflation and the term structure of interest rate under the expectations hypothesis using quarterly data from 1960 1 to 1991 1 for inflation three month nominal short term interest rates and long term yields with maturities from one to five years this paper finds that the expectations hypothesis of the term structure holds up well for the data under the assumptions of a time varying premium and a random walk real interest rate in other words a reconciliation of the expectations hypothesis with the data is attained by assuming time varying term premium and non stationary real interest rate

eco labeling and horizontal product differentiation this paper investigates the impact of eco labels on the abatement of emissions in a market with horizontal product differentiation a distinction is made between an end of pipe abatement method and a clean technology approach in the former case underinvestment is likely to occur even if the marginal willingness to pay for abatement of consumers is equal to the social marginal benefit of abatement the level of abatement depends on the number of firms and on the number of consumers for a large market with few firms overinvestment in abatement is also possible clean technology abatement achieves a first best level regardless of market size if all consumers have a marginal willingness to pay for abatement equal to its social benefit

spectrum auctions yesterday s heresy today s orthodoxy tomorrow s anachronism taking the next step to open spectrum access abstract the auction paradigm for spectrum allocation has moved from heresy to orthodoxy but like its predecessors it will not be the end of history a better alternative not driven by the revenue needs of government is license free spectrum users would gain entry to frequency bands on a pay as you go basis instead of controlling a slice of the spectrum they would transmit their content together with access tokens these tokens are electronic money access prices would vary with congestion set by automatic clearinghouses of spectrum users spot and futures markets for spectrum access would emerge once technology and economics can solve the interference problem in ways other than exclusivity the question arises whether the right to use the spectrum for electronic speech is the government s to sell in the first place

can futures market data be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates this paper examines whether futures market data can be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates several ways of examining the data indicate that futures market data are not particularly informative about real interest rates not only does this evidence cast some doubt on results in previous research that make use of futures market data to draw inferences about real interest rates but it also indicates that future research on real interest rates may need to turn to a different line of attack understanding the behavior of real interest rates is a central issue in financial economics in previous research on this topic several approaches have been used to measure real interest rates in one approach real interest rates have been calculated by subtracting survey data on inflation expectations such as the livingston data from nominal interest rates the problem with survey based measures of real interest rates is that they are only as good as the survey measure of inflation expectations and there may be little incentive for the survey respondents to answer accurately an even more telling criticism of survey based measures often ignored in the literature is that the behavior of market expectations in driven by economic agents ai the margin who are eliminating unexploited profit opportunities market expectations are unlikely therefore to be well measured by the average expectations of survey respondents 2 because of doubts about survey based measures of real interest rates other

is inflation persistence different in reality this study examines the inflation persistence using both online and official price indexes in argentina brazil china japan germany south africa the uk and the us using fractional integration technique the main results suggest that the degree of persistence estimated by the long memory parameter is smaller when using online price indexes believed to be a more realistic measure of inflation mainly in the cases of argentina brazil china and the uk monetary policy implications are discussed

nominal interest rates as indicators of inflation expectations forward interest rates have become popular indicators of inflation expectations theusefulness of this indicator depends on the relative volatilty and the correlation of inflation expectations and expected real interest rates this paper studies u s and u k data using a range of different tools and data sets the forward rate rule perfoms reasonably well in spite of significant movements in the expected real interest rate the reason is that the noise that movements in the expected real interest rate add to the inflation expectations is balanced by a tendency for expected real interest rates and inflation expectations to move in opposite directions

an empirical investigation into the international real interest rate linkages linear dynamic stochastic processes are derived for the ex ante real interest rates from those followed by the ex post real rates under the identifying assumption of rational expectations the technique is used to study instantaneous and lagged effects of u s ex ante real rates on a number of oecd ex ante real rates the author finds significant contemporaneous correlations between ex ante real rates in the long run however real rates seem to be insulated

stock prices asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten european countries abstract this paper investigates the relationship between stock indices asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten european countries it is shown that employment imports inflation and interest rates are inversely related to stock prices expectations about future real activity measures for money and the u s yield curve are positively related to stock prices a portfolio of european stock indices was constructed and it is shown that this portfolio is the variable that most strongly explains the variation in the stock prices the associations between stock prices and macroeconomic variables are shown to be strongest in germany the netherlands switzerland and the united kingdom there is a high degree of similarity between the effects in the first three of these countries in several instances the stock prices are related to historic value of economic variables indicating that predictive models can be constructed

the effects of inflation and money supply announcements on interest rates this paper examines the impact of the money supply and inflation rate announcements on interest rates survey data on expectations of the money supply and consumer and producer price indexes are used to distinguish anticipated and unanticipated components of the announcements this distinction is used to test for the efficiency of the financial market response to the announcements of new information the results indicate that the unanticipated components of the announced changes in the producers price index and in the money supply have an immediate positive effect on short term interest rates the consumer price index announcement has no apparent effect there is no evidence of a delayed announcement effect however there is some indication of a liquidity effect of the money supply change on interest rates this takes place when reserves are changing and several weeks prior to the information announcement the effect of money supply announcements on interest rates has attracted considerable attention in both the academic literature and the financial press in the last few years it has been firmly established that unanticipated increases in the money supply lead to immediate increases in interest rates however there are several competing explanations for this phenomenon in the literature in this paper we present some additional empirical evidence which helps to distinguish between two of these hypotheses the policy anticipations and inflationary expectations hypotheses by examining the effect of money supply and inflation announcements on interest rates the positive effect on interest rates of announcements of unanticipated increases in the money supply was demonstrated by urich and wachtel 9 grossman 3 and roley 5 the announcement effect was interpreted in our earlier paper as a policy anticipations effect and has been interpreted by others e g cornell 1 as an inflationary expectations effect since both effects are in the same direction it is difficult to distinguish between them without additional evidence the policy anticipations effect is simply that an unanticipated increase in the money supply causes financial market participants to expect that the federal reserve will tighten the monetary reins in order to offset the increase in anticipation of future tightening there is a tendency for interest rates to increase the inflationary expectations effect is that an unanticipated increase

learning from trading the incorporation of diverse information into asset prices is empirically examined in an actual securities market with multiple rounds of trade using prices of israeli index and nominal bonds of equal maturity we calculate implied expectations of inflation that has already occurred butfor which the official statistic has not yet been announced learning is defined as the convergence of these expectations to the actual level of infzation in the period after the end of the month but before the announcement of the official statistic wefind that the variance of the injiation expectation errors decreases with trading days in this period the decline in the variance suggests that investors learn by repeatedly observing prices about the distribution of other investors information we also find a positive relation between the dispersion of relative price changes and the size of the inflation expectation errors on thefirst round of trade the correlation diminishes as

beyond ecolabels what green marketing can learn from conventional marketing ecolabels have emerged as one of the main tools of green marketing although a great deal of effort has been invested in making them more effective and efficient the market share of ecolabelled products is still low partly because they have been addressed mainly to green consumers in a theoretical exposition of marketing theory we find that green marketing could learn from conventional marketing in discovering other means than labelling to promote green products examples include addressing a wider range of consumers working with the positioning strategies of price place and promotion and actively engaging in market creation

the relation between stock prices and inflationary expectations the international evidence this paper provides empirical evidence on the relation between stock returns and inflationary expectations for nine countries over the period 1971 80 the fisherian assumption that real returns are independent of inflationary expectations is soundly rejected for each major stock market of the world using interest rates as a proxy for expected inflation our data provide consistent support for the geske and roll model whose basic hypothesis is that stock price movements signal negative revisions in inflationary expectations finally a weak real interest rate effect was found for some of these countries

correct cointegration tests of the long run relationship between nominal interest and inflation the fisher 1930 hypothesis suggests that a long run equilibrium relationship exists between the non stationary series nominal interest and expected inflation testing such a cointegrating relationship is complicated by the presence of the unobserved ex antereal rate of interest in residuals from the cointegrating regression assumptions concerning the stochastic properties of the expected real rate of interest are examined and two proxies for the ex antereal rate are employed in multivariate cointegration tests of the fisher hypothesis

a simple adaptive measure of core inflation this paper proposes a new measure of core inflation and compares it with several existing measures the new measure is adaptive and is designed to track sudden and persistent movements in inflation such as those arising from changes in monetary policy regimes the adaptive measure filters out transients more effectively than existing measures and it is a superior predictor of locally mean reverting components of inflation

when do tips prices adjust to inflation information this event study of market efficiency found that prices of treasury inflation protected securities tips adjust to inflation information without delay during the u s consumer price index cpi survey period and even before the beginning of the survey period the cumulative effect of unexpected inflation on the tips holding period returns peaks at the end of the survey period after the cpi announcement there is no discernible price adjustment

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection

money supply announcements interest rates and foreign exchange abstract this paper presents a test of the joint hypothesis that money supply announcements affect the real interest rate and that changes in the real interest rate affect the exchange rate in the short run the test results are consistent with the joint hypothesis for example it is found that announcement of an unexpected jump in the money supply is accompanied by an increase in interest rates and an appreciation of the dollar if the rise in interest rates was entirely due to higher inflationary expectations the dollar should not appreciate

tests of the fisher hypothesis with international data theory and evidence the fisher hypothesis 7 8 states that nominal interest rates adjust fully to expected inflation for years tests of this hypothesis followed fisher 8 in regressing nominal rates on a distributed lag of past inflation which was used as a proxy for the expected rate of inflation see roll 15 for references fisher eventually concluded that nominal rates do not fully reflect expected inflation saying that when the cost of living is not stable the rate of interest takes the appreciation and depreciation into account to some extent but only slightly and in general indirectly 1 fisher attributed this to money illusion in more recent years other researchers have explained the non neutrality of inflation on grounds of general equilibrium sargent 16 and taxes darby 3 and feldstein 6 a new method of testing the fisher hypothesis was introduced by fama 4 he concluded that interest rates set in u s financial markets are informationally efficient fama s work highlighted the two separate although not always distinguishable elements in the fisher hypothesis 1 the effect of expected inflation on the expected real rate and 2 the question of whether or not the nominal rate reflects a rational forecast of expected inflation to test the informational efficiency of nominal rates fama 4 assumed a constant expected real rate arguing in the later paper that the efficiency test is robust with respect to the assumption of the constancy of the expected real rate this assumption has come under severe criticism carlson 2 nelson and schwert 14 on the grounds that the efficiency results are not verifiable given the actual behavior of realized real rates summers 17 extended the study of interest rates to the period 1860 to 1979 using both fisher s and fama s methods and found that the results are less favorable for the fisher hypothesis in a more recent study fama and gibbons 5 tested the fisher hypothesis using a procedure developed by ansley 1 which assumes that the expected real rate follows a random walk they concluded that nominal rates fully reflect expected inflation at the same time that the expected real rate adjusts to it this paper examines the question of whether international interest rates reflect expected inflation in their respective countries in doing so we expand on the previous work of kane and rosenthal 11 we show that although fama 4 introduced a bias into his tests his general approach was correct we then present simple time series tests and show that they fail for eurocurrency rates

market rationality tests based on cross equation restrictions abstract the information used by researchers in cross equation tests of rational expectations may be a small subset of the information available to the market such tests produce consistent estimates but have low power we develop a mechanism for dealing with this problem and use the procedure to perform cross equation tests on predictions from the football betting market the tests fail to reject rationality we provide evidence that market predictions from betting markets are not formed rationally it appears therefore that cross equation tests have low power even if the information sets used by the researcher and the market are approximately the same

on the accuracy of time series interest rate and survey forecasts of inflation there has been much work examining and evaluating different methodologies in forecasting inflation for example fama 1975 1977 develops an interest rate model to predict the 1 monthahead rate of inflation using the cpi fama and gibbons 1982 1984 modify the interest rate model to account for a nonconstant real rate of interest and compare it to a univariate timeseries forecasting model and to the livingston forecasts carlson 1977a 1977b and others also analyze the consensus forecasts from the livingston survey pertaining to multiperiod forecasts of inflation pearce 1979 considered the livingston survey and time series forecasts our purpose in this paper is to investigate further the relative forecasting ability of three different methodologies in contrast to previous studies that have generally used the cpi to measure inflation our analysis uses the implicit gnp deflator this modification is motivated largely by the fact that calculations of the cpi inflat n rate often are distorted greatly by changes in relative prices e g blinder 1980 fischer 1981 this paper compares the accuracy of three different inflation forecasting procedures these include a univariate time series model an interest rate model based on the methodology of fama and gibbons and the median forecasts derived from the american statistical association national bureau of economic research survey the evidence presented is based on ex ante forecasts of quarterly inflation rates using the gnp deflator for the period 1970 11984 11 based on the evidence presented the general conclusion is that the survey forecasts provide the most accurate inflation forecasts

examining green consumerism motivational drivers does premium price and demographics matter to green purchasing environmental deterioration caused by consumers non sustainable consumption pattern is putting a strain on the environment and is hindering sustainable development in order to impede this effect and promote a more sustainable economy one solution is to reduce or shift consumption from conventional products to green products the unfortunate reality indicates that inadequate information on how to promote consumers green behavioral intention is slowing the growth of green markets such inadequacy appears as a prevailing obstacle facing firms while developing segments and communicating strategies for effectively promoting green products the mentioned impact is more prevailing and most experienced in countries like malaysia hence consumers behavioral intentions must be better understood in order to strengthen knowledge about fostering green purchases this study aims to determine the motivational factors that influence green purchasing intention and simultaneously assess the moderator roles of the premium price and demographic characteristics given that consumers degree of greenness varies a survey was administered and a total of 405 usable questionnaires were obtained structural equation modeling sem was applied to test the hypotheses results indicate that environmental attitude eco label and cultural value man nature orientation significantly influence the green purchase intention the result also indicates that the premium price has no moderating effect denying its role as one of the main barriers for consumers to walk their talk as it has previously been reported by studies and opinion polls in addition the findings revealed that education level and gender have a significant positive moderation effect this suggests that green purchase intentions motivational factors are greater among highly educated individuals especially with female consumers in particular this study contributes to the understanding of the main factors that motivate consumers intention to purchase green products in malaysia it also offers insights and discusses implementations for manufacturers marketers and policy makers concerned with the drivers that motivate consumers green purchasing intentions which require different marketing plan and strategy than conventional products

are tax effects important in the long run fisher relationship evidence from the municipal bond market are nominal bonds appropriately discounted for taxes empirical estimnates of the response of nominal interest rates to changes in inflation the fisher effect have failed to produce a definitive answer four reasons have been put forward as possible explanations i tobin effects ii fiscal illusion iii peso problems and iv different estimators utilizing data on taxable and tax exempt bond interest rates and several different estimators we find that the fisher effect estimates are always larger for the taxable bond relative to the tax exempt bond suggesting that fiscal illusion and different estimators cannot account for the previous results how economic agents respond to the tax burdens of assets with different tax treatment is an important issue at both the level of the individual micro and the aggregate economy macro one clear source of evidence would appear to be the market for high quality debt trading in both taxable and tax exempt debt occurs on a daily basis the response of the rates of return on taxable and tax exempt debt to changes in expected inflation are described by the fisher relationship the fisher relationship is one of the oldest equilibrium relationships in financial economics fisher s original proposition was that if the real rate of interest is relatively constant over time a fully perceived change in the purchasing power of money as proxied by the inverse of the rate of inflation would be accompanied by a proportional increase in the nominal interest rate darby 1975 points out that when nominal interest income is taxed as are interest payments on u s treasury bills the fisher relationship implies a response from nominal interest rates that is greater than the change in expected inflation in order to maintain the constant ex ante real interest rate summers 1983 suggests that given average marginal tax rates in the united states the appropriate value of the fisher effect is 1 3 to 1 5 for tax exempt bonds the original fisher specification should be a good approximation implying a fisher effect close to unity in a seminal paper fama 1975 presents evidence to support the hypothesis that changes in nominal

leveraging factors for sustained green consumption behavior based on consumption value perceptions testing the structural model changing lifestyle and consumption pattern being the aftermath of growth and urbanization is putting a strain on environment and sustainable development the consumption value perceptions are identified in the study as the drivers of sustained green product consumption and intention to pay the green price premium using the theory of consumption values these value perceptions are certain parameters measuring consumer utilities along multiple value dimensions impacting choice behavior environmental attitude contextual factors and consumer innovativeness were included as the first order constructs data was collected through survey based method using structured questionnaires structural equation modeling was applied for testing the hypothesized model results confirmed consumers price and knowledge perceptions to be the major determinants of the behavioral outcome of sustained green consumption and behavioral intention to pay the green price premium is the outcome of sustained green consumption implications of the research were discussed

real and nominal effects of central bank monetary policy abstract we examine the impact of monetary policy using israeli data on nominal and indexed bonds which allow us to decompose nominal interest rates into inflation expectations and ex ante real interest rates we find that a monetary policy shock introduced by raising the overnight rate the bank of israel charges member banks raises real interest rates but lowers inflation expectations long term real interest rates are less impacted than short term rates lastly monetary shocks affect the exchange rate between the israeli currency and the us dollar our estimates are robust to numerous modifications to the basic var model

fisher s paradox and the theory of interest irving fisher s theory of interest has proved to be a most durable and influential contribution to economic theory a central element of fisher s contribution is the fisher hypothesis that over the longer term the real rate of interest is approximately constant being determined largely by time preference with movements in the nominal interest rate reflecting movements in the rate of inflation one for one the paradox of the fisher hypothesis is that despite its wide acceptance as the cornerstone of interest rate theory most empirical evidence appears to be inconsistent with the hypothesis at least in its strictest form this empirical anomaly was noted by fisher himself who attributed it to money illusion in the fifty years following the publication of the theory of interest a considerable literature has evolved around this paradox the unifying theme of this literature is a common acceptance of the essence of fisher s hypothesis most of the energy in this literature has been devoted to explaining systematic movements in the real rate of interest and to providing reasons why the relationship between the nominal interest rate and inflation may only be approximate in

money real interest rates and output a reinterpretation of postwar u s data this paper reexamines both monthly and quarterly u s postwar data to investigate if the observed comovements between money real interestrates prices and output are compatible with the money real interest output link suggested by existing monetary theories of output which include both keynesian and equilibrium models the major empirical findings are these 1 in both monthly and quarterly data we cannot reject the hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is exogenous or granger causally prior in the context of a four variable system which contains money prices nominal interest rates and industrial production 2 in quarterly data there is significantly more information con tained in either the levels of expected inflation or the innovationof this variable for predicting future output given current and lagged output than in any other variable examined money actualinflation nominal interest rates or ex ante real rates the effect of an inflation innovation on future output is unambiguously negative the first result casts strong doubt on the empirical importance of existing monetary theories of output which imply that money should have a causal role on the ex ante real rates the second result would appear incompatible with most demand driven models of output in light of these results we propose an alternative structural model which can account for the major dynamic interactions among the variables this model has two central features i output is unaffected by money supply and ii the money supply process is motivated by short run price stability this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

information aggregation inflation and the pricing of indexed bonds using daily prices of indexed bonds between 1970 and 1979 we test whether announcements of the israeli cpi contain information that is not already reflected in bond prices the results indicate that bond prices reflect about 85 percent of the new information about inflation as it occurs i e when the central bureau of statistics samples prices the announcement of the cpi 15 days after the end of the sampling period causes the remaining 15 percent adjustment in bond prices this evidence raises questions about the empirical importance of misperceptions about inflation as a source of nonneutrality in monetary policy

the real thing a dynamic profile of the term structure of real interest rates and inflation expectations in the united kingdom 1982 89 this article estimates real interest rates and inflation expectations from market observable data without assuming anything about the form of agents expectation formation mechanism by examining prices of index linked and conventional gilt edged securities form the u k bond market real interest rates and inflation expectations are computed quarterly beginning 1982 2 for up to fourteen maturities ranging from 1988 to 2024 copyright 1990 by the university of chicago

macroeconomic announcements and price discovery in the foreign exchange market this study shows that the dominance of the overlapping trading hours of london and new york in the price discovery of the eur usd and usd jpy markets only applies on days with u s announcements different from cai et al 2008 and wang and yang 2011 we highlight the informational advantage of local traders at the arrival of macroeconomic announcements in the local market and find that macroeconomic announcements affect the pattern of price discovery across different markets consistent with chen and gau 2010 and jiang et al 2012 we also examine changes in information shares before and after the announcement a significant increase in price discovery before the announcement suggests the possibility of information leakage while enhanced price discovery efficacy after the announcement suggests that prices gradually adjust to new information not just immediately respond to the arrival of announcements

the adjustment of stock prices to information about inflation this paper analyzes the reaction of stock prices to the new information about inflation based on daily returns to the standard and poor s composite portfolio from 1953 78 it seems that the stock market reacts negatively to the announcement of unexpected inflation in the consumer price index c p i although the magnitude of the reaction is small it is interesting to note that the stock market seems to react at the time of announcement of the c p i approximately one month after the price data are collected by the bureau of labor statistics

futures markets and the fluctuations in inflation monetary growth and asset returns inflation and nominal interest rates have been volatile in recent years futures contracts in price indices would help in this environment by enhancing information about prices and by providing a convenient means for people to hedge against inflation there is some evidence that the availability of these instruments would encourage investment and reduce the mean real rate of return on long term bonds indexed bonds which are now significant in britain serve a similar purpose in the absence of such bonds there would be a market for price index futures although the volume of trading would probably be modest this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

relative price variability real shocks and the stock market in this paper we investigate the effects of relative price variability on output and the stock market and gauge the extent to which inflation proxies for relative price variability in stock return inflation regressions the evidence shows that the negative stock returninflation relations proxy for the adverse effects of relative price variability on economic activity particularly during the seventies when the u s experienced oil supply shocks hence it appears that inflation spuriously affects the stock market in two ways the aggregate output link of fama 1981 and the supply shocks reflected in relative price variability a number of papers have attempted to explain the anomalous negative relations between stock returns and inflation witnessed in the post war period one hypothesis that has held up well in light of empirical evidence suggests that the negative relation between stock returns and unexpected inflation simply reflects the more fundamental positive relation between stock returns and future real variables see e g fama 1981 geske and roll 1983 and kaul 1987 1989 in this paper we investigate the effects of relative price variability on output and the stock market and gauge the extent to which inflation proxies for relative price variability in stock return inflation regressions first relative price variability can have detrimental effects on output and employment see e g friedman 1977 and barro 1976 second absolute relative price confusion models of the lucas 1973 type suggest that monetary shocks can induce a positive relation between inflation and relative price variability see e g cukierman 1983 hence the negative stock return inflation relations could simply be a reflection of the negative effects of relative price variability on the stock market we use data for the 1947 1985 period to test the various links of our hypothesis the results indicate that relative price variability is positively related to both expected and unexpected inflation measures relative price variability also has a significant negative effect on output and the stock market more importantly

does environmental information overcome practice compartmentalisation and change consumers behaviours this paper questions the long held paradigm of consumers rationality as well as its corresponding policy tool the supply of information theoretical considerations as well as empirical evidence from a research on residential energy consumption in belgium show that both environmental information namely on climate change and customised advice to save energy at home are neither just taken in as such by consumers nor translated into corresponding practices in consumerist societies practice compartmentalisation and moods are indeed normalised mechanisms for not adopting green lifestyles that would threaten social normality as defined in valued networks c 2007 published by elsevier ltd

the fisher hypothesis under different monetary regimes we examine the relation between inflation and nominal interest rates under the various monetary regimes in effect in the united states since the turn of the century our data include a newly constructed time series of short term municipal bond yields observed annually since 1902 the results generally support the hypothesis that after tax nominal yields adjust point for point with rationally forecasted inflation for the postwar years but strongly reject that hypothesis for the preceding years we suggest and offer supporting evidence that the difference between the two subperiods may be attributable to differences in the optimal forecasting technique for each era when forecasting is a costly endeavor

do forest assets hedge inflation forest assets are commonly viewed as good hedges against inflation the view is based largely however on anecdotal evidence rather than empirical analysis this paper examines the historical relationship between forestry returns and inflation the results suggest that forests in the u s west and south have been superior hedges against higher than anticipated inflation forests in the northeast have been less effective inflation hedges the results also indicate that western and southern forests have been overvalued during periods of relatively high expected inflation markets for forests in the northeast however have been relatively efficient processors of inflation expectations

estimation of the specification error in the fisher equation this paper asks how false is the fisher hypotheis previous work has asked is the fisher hypothesis true the framework here characterizes the specification error in the the fisher equation as model noise following durlauf and hall 1988 1989a 1989b the noise provides a metric for the specification error for the post war period to october 1979 the variance of the noise is small while after that date it is apparently large that is using a method that contains many previous tests of the fisher effect in explaining nominal in explaining nominal interest rate movements mishkin 1991 has criticized this consensus as reflection a common stochastic trend in inflation and nominal interest rates prior to october 1979 the test here is immune to this criticism as i use the ex post real interest rate as the regressand and show that at least prior to october 1979 it obeys a sationary process

inflation and real interest rates on assets with different risk characteristics given the importance of ex ante real interest rates to economic decision making it is no surprise that much empirical research focuses on them 1 several recent studies find that the ex ante real returns for short term u s treasury securities are not constant and are negatively correlated both with inflation and with nominal interest rates this paper examines the extent to which these findings hold for assets of longer maturity are robust with respect to the choice of price index and are stable over time we expand the set of assets studied to include those of longer maturity both publicly and privately issued for two reasons first their ex ante real returns may differ substantially from that of a short term nominally riskless security second because longer maturity assets have risk characteristics closer to capital their ex ante real returns are potentially more relevant for investment and savings decisions we explore the use of various price indices because the index used in most studies the consumer price index severely overstates inflation during the 1970s as a result of its inappropriate treatment of residential housing costs 2 this overstatement casts doubt on an important finding of previous studies that there are long stretches of time during the 1970s when ex ante real rates are significantly negative given the existence of holding costs for the goods relevant to most price indices and the absence of a riskless real return no arbitrage conditions are violated by a negative ex ante real rate however its persistence is problematical because asset holders are typically assumed to have a positive rate of time preference which ensures a positive ex ante real rate in the long run we find that before 1979 a negative relationship of ex ante real rates both with inflation and with nominal interest rates appears for the longer maturity assets as well as the short term nominally riskless asset indeed the relationship grows

real interest rates and inflation an ex ante empirical analysis we develop a method of measuring ex ante real interest rates using prices of index and nominal bonds employing this method and newly available data we directly test the fisher hypothesis that the real rate of interest is independent of inflation expectations we find a negative correlation between ex ante real interest rates and expected inflation this contradicts the fisher hypothesis but is consistent with the theories of mundell and tobin darby and feldstein and stulz we also find that nominal interest rates include an inflation risk premium that is positively related to a proxy for inflation uncertainty

new zealand spectrum policy a model for the united states abstract in 1989 the new zealand government began to auction management rights to the electromagnetic spectrum using sealed bid second price vickrey auctions subsequently the united states began to auction spectrum through ascending bid multiple round auctions although students of auction processes find the latter type of auction to be the more efficient form i find that the prices realized in the new zealand cellular auctions are very similar to those realized in the u s personal communications services auctions after adjusting for differences in demographics the flexibility of the new zealand management rights should theoretically allow the winning bidders to find the highest valued use for the spectrum but many of the auctioned rights remain unused several years later a country as small as new zealand simply cannot be as innovative in finding new uses for the spectrum because of the large initial costs of developing the requisite equipment for using it

identification of standard auction models this paper presents new identification results for models of first price second price ascending english and descending dutch auctions we consider a general specification of the latent demand and information structure nesting both private values and common values models and allowing correlated types as well as ex ante asymmetry we address identification of a series of nested models and derive testable restrictions enabling discrimination between models on the basis of observed data the simplest model symmetric independent private values is nonparametrically identified even if only the transaction price from each auction is observed for richer models identification and testable restrictions may be obtained when additional information of one or more of the following types is available i the identity of the winning bidder or other bidders ii one or more bids in addition to the transaction price iii exogenous variation in the number of bidders iv bidder specific covariates while many private values pv models are nonparametrically identified and testable with commonly available data identification of common values cv models requires stringent assumptions nonetheless the pv model can be tested against the cv alternative even when neither model is identified

property rights and wireless license values abstract while extending the scope of spectrum property rights promotes efficiency such reforms are often deterred by equity concerns theoretically however the windfalls may be negative relaxing license restrictions may increase profits by allowing enhanced productivity yet liberalization across a class of licensees can reduce the expected profits by increasing competitiveness this article examines license value changes for regimes that decisively shift toward private property rights in radio spectrum by analyzing the average prices paid in international cellular phone license auctions during 1995 2001 this unique data set encompasses 1 365 licenses assigned by competitive bidding in 38 auctions held in 24 countries licenses awarded by regimes with more expansive spectrum property rights generated winning bids that were 61 percent lower adjusting for other factors this evidence reverses the equity argument against liberalization over the policy margin studied and is consistent with coase s view

the determinants of price in 3g spectrum auctions this article examined the empirical relationship between prices paid for national 3g wireless licenses when spectrums were sold by auction the reduced form modelling approach was based on the prem

inflation or disinflation evidence from maturing us treasury inflation protected securities the prices of maturing us treasury inflation protected securities tips during the last 6 month coupon period reveal whether the market is anticipating an inflationary or disinflationary regime against the benchmark of the treasury bill yield to adjust for the time value of money maturing tips prices represent a sequence of updated forecasts of the consumer price index cpi to be used to determine the final single cash flow on the maturity date under the assumption of risk neutrality the sequence of forecasts is modelled as a martingale generalized method of moments and regression analysis are used to test two martingale properties of the cpi forecasts 1 the unconditional mean of daily changes in the cpi forecasts is zero and 2 serial correlations of the daily changes in the cpi forecasts are zero the test statistics reject both martingale properties of the cpi forecasts implied in maturing tips prices a persistent upward movement of the cpi forecasts toward the actual target cpi during the

the prospects of zero packaging grocery stores to improve the social and environmental impacts of the food supply chain increasing consumer awareness of the environmental and social externalities of food supply chains in developed countries instigates the opening of grocery stores that renounce the use of disposable plastic packaging for their entire product range the opportunities these novel stores offer in moving to an alternative more sustainable retail system are currently not well understood semi structured interviews with representatives of seven stores across europe and six food supply chain experts were conducted in order to address this gap findings suggest that these stores may induce more resource efficient behaviour in suppliers and consumers due to the reduction of packaging and food waste social benefits range from the support of small regional farmers to higher transparency along the supply chain and better informed consumers however these benefits come at the expense of consumer convenience due to slower shopping operations and limited product variety a wider adoption of zero packaging will require influencing consumer behaviour convincing suppliers to change their packaging practices and solving the dependency of food logistics on packaging in order to achieve wide ranging significant environmental and social benefits zero packaging stores will ultimately have to offer service levels that are comparable to conventional supermarkets potential pathways illustrating how zero packaging could overcome current market limitations are presented

is there a unit root in the inflation rate evidence from sequential break and panel data models summary using sequential trend break and panel data models we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen oecd countries with individual country tests we find evidence of stationarity in only four of the thirteen countries the results are more striking with the panel data model we can strongly reject the unit root hypothesis both for a panel of all thirteen countries and for a number of smaller panels consisting of as few as three countries the non rejection of the unit root hypothesis for inflation is very fragile to even a small amount of cross section variation 1997 john wiley sons ltd

what does the term structure tell us about future inflation abstract this empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less the term structure of nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but does provide information about the term structure of real interest rates however as maturities lengthen to nine and twelve months the nominal term structure begins to contain information about future inflation but ceases to provide information about the real term structure these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes at different points in the term structure

taxable and tax exempt interest rates the link with inflation abstract a single equation model utilizing taxable tax exempt yield spreads is developed to test restrictions required by the darby feldstein inflation tax hypothesis evidence indicates these restrictions generally can be rejected for post accord data and that there is important information in both yields linking them to inflation

estimating the fisher effect and the stochastic money growth process this paper demonstrates that a change in the stochastic process generating money can alter the relationships between money and inflation and between inflation and interest rates the extent to which inflation is forecastable is shown to depend significantly on the extent to which money is forecastable thus the greater the persistence and forecastability of money the greater the likelihood of observing a statistically significant fisher effect us data over the 1953 86 period are used to demonstrate that instability in the fisher effect coincides with changes in the stochastic process generating money there is a significantly stronger fisher effect during a subsample in which money and hence inflation are more predictable

information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy abstract this paper analyzes a general equilibrium model of a competitive security market in which traders possess independent pieces of information about the return of a risky asset each trader conditions his estimate of the return both on his own private source of information and price which in equilibrium serves as a noisy aggregator of the total information observed by all traders a closed form characterization of the rational expectations equilibrium is presented a counter example to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium is developed