using state pension shocks to estimate fiscal multipliers since the great recession has government spending raised income and employment since 2008 i use new data on state pension returns during the great recession to recover exogenous changes in spending instrumenting with these return shocks i estimate that each dollar of windfall financed spending raised local incomes by 1 43 and every additional 22 011 of spending created one contemporaneous job these estimates are similar to those found in shoag 2010 despite the non overlapping datasets unlike shoag 2010 however the bulk of the employment increase post 2008 stems from decreases in unemployment rather than increased labor force participation

taxing consumption and other sins taxes as their primary tools to collect revenue in the rest of the world governments also use income and payroll taxes but rely much more heavily than does the united states on taxing consumption consumption taxes take many forms including general sales taxes value added taxes and excise taxes on the consumption of specific items including gasoline alcohol tobacco products firearms air travel telephone communication and others the u s government does not use a value added tax making the united states unique among high income countries and a rarity in the larger world as of 2004 at least 134 countries rely on value added taxes as a substantial source of funding value added taxes are sophisticated forms of sales taxes in which taxes are withheld by businesses according to value added at every stage of production american states do impose sales taxes on broad categories of consumer purchases but state governments are considerably smaller than national governments and their sales tax rates are very low compared to the value added tax rates used in the rest of the world the united states also imposes unusually low excise taxes even after controlling for total tax collections which are lower in the united states than they are in most high income countries the deliberate social engineering that underlies the selection of certain commodities for unusually high rates of taxation appeals less to americans than to residents of other countries moreover the sin taxes on

do higher tobacco taxes reduce adult smoking new evidence of the effect of recent cigarette tax increases on adult smoking there is a general consensus among policymakers that raising tobacco taxes reduces cigarette consumption however evidence that tobacco taxes reduce adult smoking is relatively sparse in this paper we extend the literature in two ways using data from the current population survey tobacco use supplements we focus on recent large tax changes which provide the best opportunity to empirically observe a response in cigarette consumption and employ a novel paired difference in differences technique to estimate the association between tax increases and cigarette consumption estimates indicate that for adults the association between cigarette taxes and either smoking participation or smoking intensity is negative small and not usually statistically significant our evidence suggests that increases in cigarette taxes are associated with small decreases in cigarette consumption and that it will take sizable tax increases on the order of 100 to decrease smoking by as much as 5 jel i18 i12

the 2009 recovery act stimulus at the extensive and intensive labor margins abstract this paper studies the effect of government stimulus spending on a novel aspect of the labor market the differential impact of spending on the total wage bill versus employment we analyze the 2009 recovery act via instrumental variables using a new instrument the spending done by federal agencies that were not instructed to target funds towards harder hit regions we find a moderate positive effect on jobs created saved i e the extensive margin and also a significant increase in wage payments to workers whose job status was safe without recovery act funds i e the intensive margin our point estimates imply that roughly one half of the wage payments resulting from the act were paid at the intensive margin to provide a theoretical underpinning for the estimates we build a micro founded dynamic model in which a firm meets new government demand with a combination of new hiring and increasing existing workers average hours faced with hiring costs and an overtime premium the firm responds by increasing hours along both margins our model analysis also provides insight into how government spending policy should be structured to lower the cost of generating new jobs finally we catalogue survey evidence from recovery act fund recipients that reinforces the importance of the intensive labor margin

surcharges plus unhealthy labels reduce demand for unhealthy menu items three laboratory experiments and a field experiment in a restaurant demonstrate that neither a price surcharge nor an unhealthy label is enough on its own to curtail the demand for unhealthy food however when the two are combined as an unhealthy label surcharge they reduce demand for unhealthy food the authors also show that the unhealthy label is as effective for women as the unhealthy label surcharge whereas it backfires for men who order more unhealthy food when there is an unhealthy label alone the authors demonstrate that an unhealthy surcharge which highlights both the financial disincentive and potential health costs can significantly drive healthier consumption choices from a policy and government perspective if the goal is to reduce demand for unhealthy food increasing the transparency of the health rationale for any financial disincentive is necessary to effectively lower unhealthy food consumption

studying optimal paternalism illustrated by a model of sin taxes the classical economic approach to policy analysis assumes that people always respond optimally to the costs and benefits of their available choices a great deal of evidence suggests however that in some contexts people make errors that lead them not to behave in their own best interests economic policy prescriptions might change once we recognize that humans are humanly rational rather than superhumanly rational and in particular it may be fruitful for economists to study the possible advantages of paternalistic policies that help people make better choices we propose an approach for studying optimal paternalism that follows naturally from standard assumptions and methods of economic theory write down assumptions about the distribution of rational and irrational types of agents about the available policy instruments and about the government s information about agents and then investigate which policies achieve the most efficient outcomes in other words economists ought to treat the analysis of optimal paternalism as a mechanism design problem when some agents might be boundedly rational this approach has many advantages first and foremost by explicitly addressing when and how people do and don t pursue their own best interests economists will be better able to contribute to policy debates to contribute to debates over regulating private financial decisions we must study whether financial decisions are based on fallacious statistical reasoning and whether self control problems lead people to borrow too heavily to contribute to debates over teenage smoking we must study whether teenagers become smokers against their long run best interest economists will and should be ignored if we continue to insist that it is axiomatic that constantly trading stocks or accumulating consumer debt or becoming a heroin addict must be optimal for the people doing these things merely because they have chosen to do it a second advantage of our approach is that it forces us to look for the best feasible policy our

tax incidence when individuals are time inconsistent the case of cigarette excise taxes abstract one of the most cogent criticisms of excise taxes is their regressivity with lower income groups spending a much larger share of their income on goods such as cigarettes than do higher income groups we argue that traditional quantity based measures of incidence are only appropriate under a very restrictive time consistent model of consumption of sin goods a model that is much more consistent with existing evidence on smoking decisions is a time inconsistent formulation where excise taxes on cigarettes serve a self control function that is valued by smokers who would like to quit but cannot this self control function benefits lower income groups more since they have a significantly higher price sensitivity of smoking calibrations show that as a result cigarette taxes are much less regressive than previously assumed and are even progressive for a wide variety of parameter values

optimal taxation in theory and practice the optimal design of a tax system is a topic that has long fascinated economic theorists and flummoxed economic policymakers this paper explores the interplay between tax theory and tax policy it identifies key lessons policymakers might take from the academic literature on how taxes ought to be designed and it discusses the extent to which these lessons are reflected in actual tax policy we begin with a brief overview of how economists think about optimal tax policy based largely on the foundational work of ramsey 1927 and mirrlees 1971 we then put forward eight general lessons suggested by optimal tax theory as it has developed in recent decades 1 optimal marginal tax rate schedules depend on the distribution of ability 2 the optimal marginal tax schedule could decline at high incomes 3 a flat tax with a universal lump sum transfer could be close to optimal 4 the optimal extent of redistribution rises with wage inequality 5 taxes should depend on personal characteristics as well as income 6 only final goods ought to be taxed and typically they ought to be taxed uniformly 7 capital income ought to be untaxed at least in expectation and 8 in stochastic dynamic economies optimal tax policy requires increased sophistication for each lesson we discuss its theoretical underpinnings and the extent to which it is consistent with actual tax policy to preview our conclusions we find that there has been considerable change in the theory and practice of taxation over the past several decades although the two paths have been far from parallel overall tax policy has moved in the y n gregory mankiw is professor of economics matthew weinzierl is assistant professor of business administration and danny yagan is a ph d candidate in economics all at harvard university cambridge massachusetts their e mail addresses are ngmankiw

new estimates of the optimal tax on alcohol in this paper i use a new data set to estimate the optimal alcohol tax rate as a benchmark the empirical results imply that the optimal tax rate is over 100 percent of the net of tax price however alcohol taxation is a second best solution to the problems associated with alcohol abuse i conclude that the optimal alcohol tax rate would be much lower if punishment for drunk driving were more certain and severe government provision of information about the health consequences of heavy drinking would also remove part of the efficiency rationale for alcohol taxes

optimal control of externalities in the presence of income taxation a substantial literature examines second best environmental policy focusing particularly on how the pigouvian directive that marginal taxes should equal marginal external harms needs to be modified in light of the preexisting distortion due to labor income taxation additional literature is motivated by the possibility that distributive concerns should amend the internalization prescription it is demonstrated however that simple first best rules unmodified for labor supply distortion or distribution are correct in a natural basic formulation of the problem specifically setting all commodity taxes equal to marginal harms and subsidies equal to marginal benefits can generate a pareto improvement likewise a marginal reform in the direction of the first best can yield a pareto improvement qualifications and explanations for differences from previous work are also presented

does britain or the united states have the right gasoline tax this paper develops an analytical framework to assess the second best optimal level of gasoline taxation taking into account unpriced pollution congestion and accident externalities as well as interactions with the broader fiscal system we provide calculations of the optimal taxes for the us and the uk under a variety of parameter scenarios under our central parameter values the second best optimal gasoline tax is 1 01 gal for the us and 1 34 gal for the uk current tax rates are much lower than this in the us and higher in the uk the calculations are moderately sensitive to alternative parameter assumptions the congestion externality is the largest component in both nations revenue raising needs also play a significant role as do accident externalities and local air pollution potential welfare gains from reducing the current uk tax rate are estimated at nearly one fourth the production cost of all gasoline used in the uk even larger gains could be achieved by switching to a tax on vehicle miles with equal revenue yield for the us the welfare gains from optimizing the gasoline tax are smaller but those from switching to an optimal tax on vehicle miles are very large

network externality an uncommon tragedy economists have defined network externality and have examined putative inframarginal market failures associated with it this paper distinguishes between network effects and network externalities where the latter are market failures the authors argue that while network effects are important network externalities are theoretically fragile and empirically undocumented some network externalities are merely pecuniary network ownership or transactions among network participants can internalize some network effects the type of market failure that has been associated with these externalities is a transition problem that has little to do with externality

a cup runneth over fiscal policy spillovers from the 2009 recovery act this article studies the effects of interregional spillovers from the american recovery and reinvestment act of 2009 the recovery act using cross county commuting data we cluster us counties into local labour markets each of which we further partition into two subregions we then compare differential labour market outcomes and recovery act spending at the regional and subregional levels among pairs of subregions we find evidence of fiscal policy spillovers according to our benchmark specification 1 of recovery act spending in a subregion increases its own wage bill by 0 64 and increases the wage bill in its neighbouring subregion by 0 50 during the first two years following the act s passage the spillover effect occurs in the service sector whereas the direct effect occurs in both the services and goods producing sector

optimal sin taxes abstract we investigate sin taxes on unhealthy items such as fatty foods that people may by their own reckoning consume too much of we employ a standard optimal taxation framework but replace the standard assumption that all consumers have 100 self control with an assumption that some consumers may have some degree of self control problems we show that imposing taxes on unhealthy items and returning the proceeds to consumers can generally improve total social surplus because such taxes counteract over consumption by consumers with self control problems while at the same time they naturally redistribute income to consumers with no self control problems who consume less such taxes can even create pareto improvements finally we demonstrate with some simple numerical examples that even if the population exhibits relatively few self control problems optimal taxes can still be large

the american recovery and reinvestment act solely a government jobs program abstract this paper estimates the private and government sector employment effects of american recovery and reinvestment act arra spending via an instrumental variables strategy we argue that this aid was effectively fungible and states used it to offset declines in revenue this enables us to use exogenous variation in states budget positions to identify the act s employment effects we also exploit exogenous variation across states in arra highway funding according to our benchmark estimates average state and local government employment during the 24 months following the program s inception was between 156 000 and 563 000 persons greater as a result of arra spending 90 confidence interval the corresponding estimate for the private sector ranges from a loss of 182 000 to a gain of 1 1 million jobs our point estimate for the implied cost of creating a job lasting one year is 202 000 which is substantially larger than the corresponding estimate from the president s council of economic advisors

excise tax avoidance the case of state cigarette taxes we conduct an applied welfare economics analysis of cigarette tax avoidance we develop an extension of the standard formula for the optimal pigouvian corrective tax to incorporate the possibility that consumers avoid the tax by making purchases in nearby lower tax jurisdictions to provide a key parameter for our formula we estimate a structural endogenous switching regression model of border crossing and cigarette prices in illustrative calculations we find that for many states after taking into account tax avoidance the optimal tax is at least 20 smaller than the standard pigouvian tax that simply internalizes external costs our empirical estimate that tax avoidance strongly responds to the price differential is the main reason for this result we also use our results to examine the benefits of replacing avoidable state excise taxes with a harder to avoid federal excise tax on cigarettes

value added taxation a tax whose time has come value added taxes vats are used in a large number of developed countries and have been under consideration at the national level in the united states in recent years this paper provides an introduction to the tax for those unfamiliar with it the author begins by describing how vats work and briefly surveys their use by other countries the remainder of the paper considers the economic impact as well as design issues that are likely to arise if the united states were to implement a vat

issues in the design of environmental excise taxes t ax law has long had environmental consequences although the consequences have often been unintended for example tax provisions passed to assist the timber industry in the 1920s permitted expensing of the costs of reforestation and planting rather than having to depreciate them over a period of time along with capital gains treatment for harvested timber provisions which may have encouraged a more rapid harvest of domestic timberland percentage depletion allowances to assist the oil industry a deduction based on a percentage of the value of oil sold rather than the taxpayer s basis in the oil which became part of the internal revenue code in 1926 arguably have led to exploitation of oil and mineral deposits at a rate greater than the socially optimal rate similarly the purpose of the federal motor fuels tax when expanded in 1956 was to fund highway construction although now it is common to regard it as at least potentially an environmental tax aimed at addressing the externalities caused by automobile use of course these tax provisions were not motivated by environmental concerns the 1970s began to see efforts at environmental tax policy although at the time the focus of the policies more often was energy conservation rather than reduction in pollution between 1978 and 1986 congress provided tax credits for residential energy conservation expenditures in 1978 congress enacted the gas guzzler excise tax an excise tax that varies with the environmental protection agency s fuel economy rating of automobiles it remains in force today congress also made available tax exempt bond finance for pollution control equipment between 1978 and 1986

lifetime incidence and the distributional burden of excise taxes this implies that low income households in one year have some chance of being higher income households in other years and significantly affects the estimated distributional burden of excise taxes this paper shows that household expenditures on gasoline alcohol and tobacco as a share of total consumption a proxy for lifetime income are much more equally distributed than expenditures as a share of annual income from a longer horizon perspective excise taxes on these goods are therefore much less regressive than standard analyses suggest this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the effects of government purchases shocks review and estimates for the eu in this article we review the theoretical consequences of government purchases shocks for both closed and open economies followed by a discussion of the empirical literature next we provide our own estimates for the eu countries we find that an increase in government purchases raises output consumption and investment and reduces the trade balance however the stimulating effect is weaker and the trade balance reduction is larger for the more open eu economies consistent with larger leakage effects further we show that government purchases shocks in large eu economies have non negligible consequences for economic activity in the main trading partners

taxing to control social costs the case of alcohol whether taxation of alcoholic beverages is an appropriate means of reducing social costs of alcohol consumption is a continuing public policy issue some argue that the public health costs and other external costs associated with the consumption of alcoholic beverages are so significant as to justify substantial excise taxes on those beverages others counter that a tax on alcohol would reduce consumption indiscriminately and therefore reduce the satisfaction experienced by millions of sensible drinkers without necessarily reducing the harm caused by a few excessive drinkers 2 this paper presents and applies a framework for evaluating these two views of the efficiency welfare effects of alcohol taxes determining the efficiency implications of alcohol taxes is complicated by the question of whether and how much abusers especially alcoholics benefit from alcohol consumption standard welfare theory assumes that all consumers of alcohol enjoy positive net benefits consumer surplus however it is possible that alcoholics over consume in the sense that consumer surplus from their

local and aggregate fiscal policy multipliers abstract using a newly constructed panel of state level defense contracts this paper studies the effect of defense spending on the u s macroeconomy summing observations across states we estimate aggregate income and employment multipliers comparing these to local multipliers estimated with the panel provides evidence that local multiplier estimates may be reliable indicators of fiscal policy s aggregate effects furthermore evidence of small positive spillovers is found across several specifications we estimate income and employment multipliers between zero and 0 5 this result is reconciled with the greater than one multipliers found in nakamura and steinsson 2014 by analyzing the korean war years impact on the estimation

natural resource curse and poverty in appalachian america the appalachian mountain region has long been characterized by deep poverty which led to the formation of the appalachian regional commission arc in 1965 the arc region covers west virginia and parts of 12 other states running from new york to mississippi ziliak 2012 the arc region had an average county poverty rate of over 40 percent in 1960 about double the national average deaton and niman 2012 ziliak 2012 while the poverty gap between the arc region and the rest of the nation closed significantly by 1990 it remained nearly twice as large in central appalachia there are many reasons for higher poverty in appalachia in general and central appalachia in particular possible causes include a low paying industry structure below average education low household mobility and remoteness from to cities weber et al 2005 partridge and rickman 2005 lobao 2004 a key distinction between central appalachia and the rest of the arc region is its historic dependence on coal mining there is long literature arguing that the area s dependence on coal mining has contributed to its deep poverty through weaker local governance entrepreneurship and educational attainment as well as degrading the environment poor health outcomes and limitations on other economic opportunities deaton and niman 2012 james and aadland 2011 these factors are broadly associated with the natural resources curse in the international development literature more recently the process of mountain top mining mtm has expanded coal mining s environmental footprint in the region possibly increasing health risks and further reducing the chances for long term amenity led growth that can alleviate poverty deller 2010 woods and gordon 2011 this study reinvestigates the causes of county poverty rates in appalachia with a special focus on coal mining s role using data over the 1990 2010 period we assess whether coal mining continues to have a positive association with poverty rates even as the industry s relative size has declined we also appraise whether mtm is associated with higher poverty we do this by comparing the arc region to the rest of the u s and by using more disaggregated employment data that allows us to differentiate the effects of coal mining from other mining versus aggregating all mining together as in past research the results suggest that any potential adverse effects of coal mining on poverty have declined over time below we first develop an empirical model followed by the empirical results the final section provides our concluding thoughts