bulls bears and market sheep abstract a deterministic excess demand model of stock market behavior is presented that generates stochastically fluctuating prices and randomly switching bear and bull markets

producer s dilemma experiments abstract embedding profit motivated producers in a simple macroeconomic model creates a system where expansion by one producer is unprofitable but coordinated expansions are profitable in this system any level of aggregate demand is a potential equilibrium the ruling equilibrium is determined by expectations rather than close the model with behavioral assumptions behavioral observations are made of subjects in this incentive environment

a characterization of erratic dynamics in the overlapping generations model abstract in this paper we characterize and give examples o wide classes of utility functions which generate erratic dynamics in the standard deterministic overlapping generations model erratic dynamics refers to feasible trajectories which are bounded but which do not converge to stationary points or periodic orbits we show that such trajectories are pareto efficient we introduce credit into the model and show how a constant credit expansion rate can result in erratic trajectories in prices and the real value of credit finally we briefly discuss certain technical aspects of the mathematics used and the statistical nature of the dynamics that can arise from deterministic dynamical systems

entrepreneurship entrepreneurial training and x efficiency theory abstract a basic motivational component of entrepreneurship is an individual s commitment to overcome gaps and obstacles in imperfect markets research associated with n achievement theory indicates the possibility of the selection and training of potential entrepreneurs and therefore a means to increase the supply of entrepreneurs a tendency to glorify entrepreneurship and the use of a tight equilibrium concept make it difficult to integrate entrepreneurship into standard economic theory despite the desirability of doing so x efficiency theory accommodates a non heroic view of entrepreneurs which in turn allows for the inclusion or entrepreneurial training in the model

competitive dynamics and economic learning an extended resource based view in this paper a conceptual framework for the analysis of economic learning is developed economic learning by analogy with organizational learning results in the development of economic competences or capabilities shared between firms which rest on a foundation of economic resources from which value is generated and economic routines through which resources are utilized it is the mobility of resources and their exchange and production dynamics along evolutionary pathways which underpins the plausibility of a notion of economic learning the paper elaborates this framework as a resource based view rbv of the economy as a whole as an extension of the rbv of the firm such a framework captures the dynamics of exchange and circulation of technologies know how and intangible assets as well as of tangible assets and capital goods it is concerned with investment behavior by entrepreneurs rather than with the behavior of producers and consumers in goods and services markets within this resource economy framework it is possible to generate an account of the resource dynamics that underpin production of goods and services including resource propagation diffusion imitation replication and recombination these processes encompass evolutionary pressures experienced through resource variation selection and retention entrepreneurial initiatives take the form of resource recombinations while resource innovation captures the creation of new economic resources such as technological standards such a perspective brings into focus the resource specialization and configurations that drive real economies within firms and between firms that translates into enhanced or diminished performance of the economy as a whole copyright 2003 oxford university press

common factors in latin america s business cycles this paper constructs new business cycle indices for argentina brazil chile and mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output external trade fiscal and financial variables the analysis spans the 135 years since the insertion of these economies into the global economy in the 1870s the constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts in particular we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle volatility and persistence relative to benchmark countries and that such volatility has been time varying with important differences across policy regimes we also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing

modeling the experimentally organized economy complex dynamics in an empirical micro macro model of endogenous economic growth abstract the swedish micro to macro model moses is used to show how complex economic behavior emerges from interacting boundedly rational agents the simulation model has been calibrated using business firm data non linearities arise in its specification of technology the distribution of firm characteristics and in the rules that govern entry and exit the model economy is characterized by a restless competitive growth process that is normally robust but that now and then generates phases of local disorderly behavior including for some parameter settings the collapse of entire sectors the model explains why government agents have difficulty predicting the reactions of the economy to policies suggesting that government treads cautiously in order not to do more harm than good

disequilibrium economic dynamics a post schumpeterian contribution abstract adaptive economizing in a decentralized economy with alternative technologies and scarce resources leads to various kinds of locally unstable behavior economic disequilibrium is the rule in such a world and requires the presence of market mechanisms that make possible continued viability if in addition to local instability economies are also globally unstable as considerable evidence suggests then the discovery and application of new structure is essential a complete dynamic theory of economic change must therefore be based not only on conventional rationality and routinely adapting behavior but on a superior faculty which may perhaps best be called creative intelligence

micro heterogeneity of firms and the stability of industrial growth abstract in the micro macro m m model moses real swedish firms make independent decisions in markets schumpeterian innovative activities and wicksellian capital market disequilibria generate a growth cycle production and investment decisions in firms are dynamically coordinated by markets for products labor and capital under different market regimes as to speed intensity of competitive processes and of innovative activity by varying market regime ceteris par leux long term growth rates of the economy can be generated at cliffe as much as between the industrial countries during the last 50 years high speed market processes increase output growth for long periods but make the model economy sensitive to disturbances that eventually generate a severe depression simulation results suggest the importance for stable macroeconomic growth of a steady input of innovative technical change through new investment new entry and exit to preserve micro diversity of structures

mean reversion in long horizon real exchange rates evidence from latin america abstract this paper examines mean reversion in real effective exchange rates in six leading latin american economies during the xxth century using a new data set a unit root approach is complemented by an error correction model including key fundamentals such as terms of trade trade openness and relative productivities unit root testing shows a very slow process of reversion if any to a constant mean in the original series rejecting the strict ppp hypothesis however mean reversion is found after allowing for trends and structural breaks with a half life average of 1 years for the six countries we also found reversion to a conditional mean defined by the co integrating relationship with an average half life of 2 years our estimates although lower than the 3 5 year range that motivated the rogoff s puzzle still indicate the presence of important obstacles to the adjustment process that need further investigation

the hungarian hyperinflation and stabilization of 1945 1946 inflation in hungary after world war ii was the most intense on record the reforms of august 1946 were immediately and entirely successful in stabilizing prices this paper describes and analyzes the unique policies and institutions that produced these phenomena despite its severity the hungarian experience was consistent with the less extreme inflation and stabilization experiences examined by sargent price stabilization was accomplished by fiscal rather than purely monetary measures and was paradoxically accompanied by rapid and prolonged money growth

comments on arrow and on lucas such a number of interesting and provocative things are put forward in lucas and in arrow in this issue that i would like to be able to dissect them in detail for example lucas states that the problem of controlling inflation has been successfully solved in a scientific sense p s405 i am tempted to explore the limits of the set of problems that might be said to be scientifically solved in the lucas sense but i fear that this would take up a good deal of space arrow deplores the use of homogeneity assumptions as a device for adding content to otherwise inconclusive economic theories but presumably he does not believe that the sonnenschien mantel debreu theorem is the ultimate conclusion regarding the useful content of the propositions of general equilibrium theory some restrictions of intermediate strength are presumably called for and i would like to make the case that strong empirical generalizations about the nature of human actors such as those describing the biological requirements for survival are available and relevant in this connection this too would take some space to develop in detail though not as much as the first subject given the constraints i must choose a focus i will focus on what i take to be the main message that lucas has put forward regarding the relationship between adaptive behavior and the rationality assumptions employed in standard economic theory this message is recognizable as the intellectual descendant of similar discussions by friedman and machlup in the 1940s and 1950s and the ideas involved remain extremely influential in the discipline today i will present and comment on my own statement of this position which i following blaug 1980 will call the classic defense of the rationality as

modes of economizing behavior experimental evidence abstract in addition to more or less elaborate explicity rational procedures economic choices in reality are frequently made by trial and error imitation following an authority habit thoughtless impulse and hunch presenting results from a number of experiments that explicity incorporate decision cost this paper explores the extent to which these alternative decision making modes can lead to optimal choices

structure and cycles abstract on the basis of a neo austrian representation of the production process we show how recurrent cycles can emerge from a distortion of productive capacity which hamper the viability of changes that imply structural modifications even the quickest and most complete adaptation of the structure of productive capacity cannot prevent the economy from bearing fluctuations it can only make them regular

rational choice and erratic behaviour in this paper we show that rational choice in a stationary environment can lead to erratic behaviour when preferences depend on experience we mean by erratic behaviour choice sequences that do not converge to a long run stationary value or to any periodic pattern early investigations of the effects of experience on choice goes back to pareto see also benhabib 1979 some keynesian theories of the consumption function incorporate the effects of experience and habit formation on current levels of consumption duesenberry 1949 modigliani 1949 and brown 1952 a general model of experience dependent choice was described in day 1970 and investigated in day and kennedy 1971 while the specific issue of the existence of stable representable long run consumer demand when tastes vary endogenously has been treated by gorman 1967 pollak 1970 1976 weizsaicker 1971 mccarthy 1974 and hammond 1976 pollak gave conditions for the representability of long run choice when the equations of preference dependence are linear and utility additive hammond in a generalization of these findings provides conditions for stable representable long run choice when preferences are acyclic a condition which in essence assures convergence to a long run choice

costly optimization an experiment abstract an experimental technique is developed and used to examine how human subjects make choices when optimization is costly the total cost of making a choice is defined to include two parts 1 the direct cost of making the decision and 2 the indirect cost of making a choice that is not best among the available alternatives the total cost of choice for subjects in the experimental economy ranged from 15 to 42 percent of the economy s resources the hypothesis that agents are rational on average was strongly rejected while the hypothesis that agents are rational in the long run fared better

the effect of decision costs on the formation of market making intermediaries a pilot experiment abstract an economy is presented where trade is beneficial but not assumed if trade is to occur it must arise endogenously as either barter or mediated trade the role decision costs play in the development of trade is explicitly recognized the theoretical model is examined in an experimental setting by imbedding it in a computer trading game the data obtained from the experiments are used to examine the impact of decision costs on the development of trade and on the welfare of subjects in the experimental economy

the emergence of economic organization abstract a model of decentralized markets is studied in which transactors follow simple adaptive rules transactions are coordinated by specialist trading firms that bear the costs of market disequilibrium starting from an initially autarkic situation in which none of the institutions that support exchange exist computer simulation shows that for a wide range of parameter values a fully developed market economy will emerge spontaneously moreover in virtually every case where a market economy develops one of the commodities traded will emerge as a universal medium of exchange being traded by every firm and changing hands in every act of exchange

finance innovation and industrial change abstract this paper investigates the impact financial structures upon industrial dynamics whenever the system is permanently characterized by unexploited opportunities for innovation highly bounded rationality and trial and error search processes in these circumstances it is argued specific financial set ups such as market based vs credit based mechanisms of allocation control and ownership transfer are likely to exert different influences on the rates and modes of industrial innovation relatedly one suggests some hypotheses on the links between financial systems and features of industrial evolution and some tentative taxonomies

the evolving economy abstract a general theory of economic change development and policy is presented based on bounded rationality adaptive economizing in disequilibrium and creative intelligence the latter perturbs the economic system as in the schumpeterian theory but is here regarded as a fundamental faculty that both underlies the exercise of rationality and makes possible the imitation of new behavior that is at the basis of socio economic transformation moreover it generates the institutional innovations that insure continued viability in a globally unstable world

an experimental investigation of transaction costs abstract this research builds on hoffman and spitzer 1982 and 1986 and coursey hoffman and spitzer 1987 and investigates how transaction costs may alter price patterns and economic efficiency in markets sixteen experimental markets were conducted which were designed to have different levels of transaction costs the transaction costs were of two types either as a consequence of strategic price setting due to potential holdouts or due to the number of traders who had to contract to trigger a synergistic payoff the results of the markets indicated that transaction costs had the anticipated influence on the price patterns and the efficiency of the markets

exchangeability and its economic applications abstract the symmetry possessed by exchangeability is the key to its usefulness the methods that are used to comprehend reality will edify insofar as they reflect this symmetry this is true of theoretical models empirical methods and algorithms indeed if the design of mechanisms is by rearrangement of natural matter their survival value will depend on the degree to which they retain the symmetry of the original matter this comment encompasses complex machinery and sophisticated political social and economic institutions the paper simply embroiders this observation

on the instability of mixed strategy nash equilibria abstract what behavior processes will lead to a nash equilibrium of an n person game two very general processes are examined for finite games with finite horizon generalized fictitious play strict mixed strategy nash equilibria are shown to be unstable for almost all finite games with discrete or continuous time generalized gradient processes mixed strategy nash equilibria are shown to be unstable

inflation and monetary stabilization in mexico during the revolution abstract the mexican revolution like in so many cases of war witnessed a large inflationary process which appeared in early 1913 the group in power and other revolutionary factions resorted to seizing bank reserves and to printing money the exchange rate these various monies depreciated steadily until mid 1916 the new government tried to stabilize prices and the exchange rate by having a low level of reserves but the effort failed shortly after the government repudiated its own money by demanding that a growing amount of the various taxes to be paid in hard currency at the same time some sectors of the ecnomy also demanded their salaries to be paid in gold money finally as if by magic gold and silver coins returned to circulation reversing gresham s law and the gold standard was reassumed thus stabilizing the exchange rate and level of prices some of these results are also compared with those experienced by various countries in similar situations

primaries and candidate polarization behavioral theory and experimental evidence do primary elections cause candidates to take extreme polarized positions standard equilibrium analysis predicts full convergence to the median voter s position with complete information but behavioral game theory predicts divergence when players are policy motivated and have out of equilibrium beliefs theoretically i show that primary elections can cause greater extremism or moderation depending on the beliefs candidates and voters have about their opponents in a controlled incentivized experiment i find that candidates diverge substantially and that primaries have little effect on average positions voters employ a strategy that weeds out candidates who are either too moderate or too extreme which enhances ideological purity without increasing divergence the analysis highlights the importance of behavioral assumptions in understanding the effects of electoral institutions