immigrant benefit receipt revisited sensitivity to the choice of survey years and model specification baker and benjamin 1995 analyse the receipt of unemployment insurance by immigrant men using two years of the canadian survey of consumer finances this study replicates their research on 13 of the annual surveys estimates are found to be sensitive to the choice of survey years furthermore the standard fixed effects model of assimilation is rejected when tested against a model that allows for separate year since migration effects by arrival cohort estimates from the more general model do not indicate higher incidence of benefit receipt ceteris paribus among more recent cohorts or that immigrants assimilate toward greater receipt of benefits

learning to believe in sunspots a number of authors have shown that competitive economies may possess sunspot equilibria that is rational expectations equilibria in which purely extrinsic uncertainty affects equilibrium prices and allocations 2 such results demonstrate that it does not require a lack of faith in the rationality of market participants to believe that competitive markets may be subject to purely speculative fluctuations driven solely by expectations 3 the mere existence of sunspot equilibria as solutions to a system of marketclearing conditions however might not be judged sufficient to indicate that competitive markets with rational participants could ever be subject to speculative instability the sunspot equilibria represent states of affairs in which agents act differently in the case of different realizations of the sunspot variable and it is rational for each agent to do so but it might be thought unlikely that the beliefs of all the participants in the market could ever come to be coordinated so as to bring about an equilibrium of that kind it is rational to believe that sunspots convey information about future states of affairs once the economy is in a sunspot equilibrium but why would rational agents ever begin to believe in such a thing so as to create the conditions under which the belief is rational in order to address such a question one must go beyond the mere statement of the conditions for equilibrium and discussion of what states of affairs satisfy them one must specify an explicit dynamic process according to which the beliefs of agents adjust when out of equilibrium any exercise of this kind is necessarily unsatisfactory as there is no univocal meaning for the postulate of rational behavior outside of an equilibrium it may well be the case that

convergence to rational expectations in a stationary linear game this paper describes several learning processes which converge with probability one to the rational expectations bayesian nash equilibrium of a stationary linear game the learning processes include a test for convergence to equilibrium and a method for changing the parameters of the process when non convergence is indicated this self stabilization property eliminates the need to impose stability conditions on the economic environment convergence to equilibrium is proved for two types of self stabilizing learning mechanisms a centralized forecasting mechanism and a decentralized strategy adjustment process

eductive stability in real business cycle models we reexamine issues of coordination in the standard rbc model is the unique rational expectations equilibrium attainable by rational agents who contemplate the possibility of small deviations from equilibrium surprisingly we nd that coordination cannot be expected even with strong common knowledge assumptions rational agents anticipating small but persistent deviations are led to take actions that eventually contradict the common knowledge assumption this impossibility theorem for eductive learning is not fully overcome when adaptive learning is incorporated into the framework

heterogeneous expectations adaptive learning and evolutionary dynamics this paper presents a linear self referential macroeconomic model with the possibility of multiple equilibria where agents have the choice of using one of two forecasting models one of minimum state variable form and the other of sunspot form to form expectations of current and future prices endogenous predictor selection is modeled as an evolutionary game where individuals choose among the forecasting models based on relative performance some nash solutions are not relevant as they are not stable under evolutionary or adaptive learning finally it is shown that the sunspot equilibrium is fragile against temporary shocks to information costs

stability of cycles and expectations the actual dynamics of an economy depends on how agents forecast the future at every date as a function of their information on the past while possibly learning the structure of their environment we show in the case of a one dimensional state variable that under mild conditions on expectations functions a given cycle with perfect foresight that is stable in the actual dynamics is stable in a fictitious backward perfect foresight dynamics we exhibit a restricted class of expectations functions for which the converse is true

stable near rational sunspot equilibria abstract we introduce a new class of solutions to nonlinear forward looking models called near rational sunspot equilibria nrse nrse are natural nonlinear extensions of the usual sunspot equilibria associated with the linearized version of the economy and are near rational in that agents use the optimal linear forecasting model when forming expectations generic results for existence and stability under learning are established nrse in indeterminate nonlinear models are found to be stable under learning provided that the corresponding linearized model s minimal state variable solution is e stable nrse are readily computable and our results make it possible to use the standard linear tools to search for stable nrse we illustrate our results using a canonical nonlinear new keynesian model

the fragility of sunspots and bubbles abstract expectational stability e stability is used to examine the multiplicity of solutions in a range of rational expectations models of interest including muth s inventory model and an overlapping generations model in these model it is found that sunspot and other rational bubble solutions are either e unstable or weakly but not strongly e stable

social security eligibility and the labor supply of older immigrants the employment rate of native born men falls at a much faster rate than that of immigrants as the two groups approach the age of retirement the author draws on u s census data from 1960 2000 to examine how the eligibility requirements for social security benefits affect immigrants decisions to leave the labor market as they near retirement age because a person needs to have worked in the united states for at least ten years to qualify for benefits newly arrived immigrants may not yet have accumulated the requisite employment credits to do this and thus have greater employment rates than other comparably aged persons the probability that an older immigrant is employed falls once the ten year work rule is satisfied the implication of this finding is that immigration may affect the increase in retirement benefits that will inevitably occur as the baby boom generation retires

sufficient conditions for the existence of sunspot equilibria abstract this paper reports on conditions on agents preferences and endowments sufficient to guarantee the existence of sunspot equilibria in a simple overlapping generations model of pure exchange sunspot equilibria are those in which uncertainty extrinsic to the economy operates through expectations to yield a fulfilled expectations competitive equilibrium in which the extrinsic randomness has real effects on prices and allocations the paper also provides necessary and sufficient conditions for these equilibria to have agents trading in a fixed stock of valued fiat money the condition derived can be interpreted as requiring that intertemporal income effects appropriately dominate substitution effects

macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the european union abstract we use a very general bivariate garch m model and monthly data on eu countries covering the 1962 2003 period to test for the impact of real output growth and nominal inflation macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth our evidence supports a number of important conclusions first in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related to the average growth rate and the effect in several countries is negative second in half of the cases there is no significant relationship between inflation uncertainty and output growth performance third inflation and output uncertainty have a mixed effect on inflation nevertheless considerable evidence for the cukierman meltzer hypothesis is obtained our conclusions are based on adopting both a structural and a reduced form bivariate garch model finally we also find statistically significant evidence of regime switching for both inflation and output growth volatility throughout the sample

the fischer black hypothesis some time series evidence we estimate an arch m model to analyze the relationship between the conditional standard deviation of real gross national product gnp and its growth rate for the period 1871 1993 we find that variability significantly increases output growth rates in addition impulse response functions show that the effect of variability on growth rates is dynamic these results provide evidence in favor of black s 1987 business cycle hypothesis

canadian economics research on immigration through the lens of theories of justice we assess the current state of knowledge in the economics of immigration and consider how economic theories of knowledge can be used to further the goal of developing a just immigration policy in the process we highlight the contributions of economists working in canada and canadian economists internationally in furthering our understanding of this important research area we identify research gaps such as the need for more research on the underlying causes of the poor returns to foreign work experience for immigrants from non traditional source countries and the effect of immigrants on stimulating innovation more research is also needed on the implications of temporary foreign worker tfw programs and the growing importance of employers in immigrant selection systems la recherche canadienne en economie de l immigration a travers la lentille des theories de la justice on jauge l etat present des connaissances en economie de l immigration et on examine comment les theories economiques de la connaissance peuvent etre utiles dans la poursuite d un objectif qui serait de mettre en place une politique d immigration juste dans ce processus on souligne les contributions des economistes travaillant au canada a notre comprehension de ce chantier de recherche on identifie certaines zones d ombre comme la recherche pour comprendre les causes sous jacentes aux pauvres rendements de l experience de travail des immigrants en provenance des pays qui ne sont pas des sources d immigration traditionnelles et celle pour comprendre les effets des immigrants sur la stimulation de l innovation il faudra aussi davantage de recherches sur les implications des programmes pour attirer et accueillir les travailleurs etrangers temporairement et sur l importance croissante des employeurs dans les systemes de selection d immigrants

immigrant assimilation and welfare participation do immigrants assimilate into or out of welfare this paper analyzes differences in welfare utilization between immigrants and natives in sweden using a large panel data set for the years 1990 to 1996 we find that immigrants use welfare to a greater extent than natives and that differences cannot be explained by observable characteristics welfare participation decreases with time spent in sweden refugees assimilate out of welfare at a faster rate than nonrefugee immigrants but neither group is predicted to reach parity with natives increases in unemployment and immigration as well as the change in the composition of immigrants contributed to the increase in welfare utilization in sweden

adjustment costs learning and indeterminacy abstract i compare the adjustment cost and learning approaches to resolving indeterminacy of perfect foresight equilibrium in a continuous time model with local indeterminacy rapid learning tends to select different perfect foresight equilibria of the original model than does the inclusion of vanishing adjustment costs this difference has implications for the dynamic response of the economy to unanticipated shocks

adaptive learning and monetary exchange abstract this paper investigates three classic questions in monetary theory how can an intrinsically worthless asset such as fiat money maintain value as a medium of exchange what are the short run and long run effects of a change in the money supply what is the social cost of inflation i answer these questions using a microfounded model of monetary exchange that replaces the rational expectations assumption with an adaptive learning rule first i show that monetary exchange is a robust arrangement in the sense that agents are able to learn the stationary monetary equilibrium while the non monetary equilibrium is unstable under learning second an unanticipated monetary injection has real effects in the short run because learning the value of money takes time in the long run agents successfully learn the value of money hence money is neutral third under a constant money growth policy an increase in the growth rate of money increases output in the short run producing a short run phillips curve a ten percent increase in the money growth rate has a social cost of 0 41 percent of output per year alternatively a ten percent decrease in the money growth rate has a social benefit of 0 37 percent of output per year

the dynamics of immigrant participation in entitlement programs evidence from canada 1993 2007 using uniquely rich canadian administrative data from the 1993 2007 period i find no evidence of rising employment insurance ei participation across recent immigrant cohorts and no evidence of rising ei participation with number of years spent in canada beyond the short period following entrance into the canadian labour market i also find little evidence of the rising immigrant participation in social assistance sa either across recent arrival cohorts or with years in canada the results do not appear to be seriously affected by emigration and attrition within each immigrant cohort while the immigrant participation in traditional welfare programs such as social assistance has generally declined from 1993 to 2007 i show that canada child tax benefit and other federal and provincial programs aimed at providing financial assistance to families with children have become a major source of transfer income to immigrant families a l aide de donnees administratives canadiennes particulierement riches pour la periode 1993 2007 on decouvre qu il n y a pas d evidence de participation plus elevee au programme d assurance emploi ae d une cohorte d immigrants recents a l autre dans le temps non plus que d evidence de participation accrue a l ae des immigrants recents avec le nombre d annees passees au canada si ce n est pour la courte periode qui suit l entree dans le marche du travail canadien on ne trouve que peu de support pour l hypothese de participation accrue a l assistance sociale as tant d une cohorte a la suivante qu avec le nombre d annees passees au canada ces resultats ne semblent pas affectes par l emigration ou l attrition a l interieur de chaque cohorte alors que la participation des immigrants aux programmes de bien etre traditionnels comme l assistance sociale ont generalement decline entre 1993 et 2007 on montre que la prestation fiscale canadienne pour enfants et autres programmes federaux et provinciaux visant a fournir de l assistance financiere aux familles avec enfants sont devenus une source majeure de revenus de transfert pour les familles d immigrants

complexity and economic policy a paradigm shift or a change in perspective a review essay on david colander and roland kupers s complexity and the art of public policy in their recent book colander and kupers 2014 argue that viewing the economy as a complex adaptive system should change the way in which we make economic policy this would necessitate a paradigm shift economics has over time tried to produce a coherent model to underpin the dominant laissez faire liberal approach but we have never proved in that model that left to their own devices the participants in an economy will self organize into a satisfactory state this is an assumption complex interactive systems with direct interaction between heterogeneous agents may show no tendency to self equilibrate and will undergo endogenous crises economists should concentrate on the emergence of certain patterns colander and kupers suggest that we may be able to nudge the system into good basins of attraction a more radical view is that there are no fixed basins of attraction these change with the evolution of the system and it is illusory to believe that we can choose good basins we may be able to recognize and influence the emergence of certain states of the economy but we are far from leon walras s dream of economics as a science like astrophysics

learning large deviations and recurrent currency crises this article studies a version of obstfeld s journal of international economics 43 1997 61 77 escape clause model the model is calibrated to produce three rational expectations equilibria two of these equilibria are e stable and one is unstable dynamics are introduced by assuming that agents must learn about the government s decision rule it is assumed they do this using a stochastic approximation algorithm it turns out that as a certain parameter describing the sensitivity of beliefs to new information gets small the algorithm converges to a small noise diffusion process the dynamics of exchange rate changes are then characterized using large deviation techniques from freidlin and wentzell random perturbations of dynamical systems second edition berlin springer verlag 1998 these methods describe the sense in which the limiting distribution of exchange rate changes is approximated by a two state markov switching process where the two states correspond to the two e stable equilibria the model is calibrated to the exchange rate histories of argentina brazil and mexico currency crises in these countries resemble the predicted escape routes of the model a key feature of these escape routes is that expectations of a devaluation erupt suddenly without large contemporaneous shocks this is consistent with evidence showing that crises are often poorly anticipated by financial markets

the effect of gnp announcements on fluctuations of gnp growth abstract this paper is an empirical study of the degree in which perceptions affect the evolution of the economy we study the effects of the announcements that the government makes on gnp growth these announcements are subject to a substantial degree of noise and its accuracy improves with time a revised number is published several years after the first announcement was made public we consider that the final revision is the true value of gnp growth we show that once announcements are taken into account the true value of gnp growth at time t has no predictive power in determining growth at any future time all the predictive power lies in the announcements and not in the true level of growth actually we show that the variable that determines future growth is the unexpected part of the announcements we also show that announcements affect growth via aggregate investment

on endogenous competitive business cycles the belief that the long run equilibrium of a competitive monetary economy that does not experience any exogeneous shocks whether originating from the external environment or from policy should be modelled as a state that is stationary or perhaps growing at a constant rate seems to be deeply rooted in the mind of some economists

living in an imaginary world that looks real abstract in the paper we show using standard approaches general equilibrium modeling and the assumption of complete rationality that the macroeconomic environment is endogenous and is indeterminate specifically it is argued without resorting to sunspot type arguments that microeconomic fundamentals do not suffice to characterize the economy at the macro level in particular we show how perceptions of rational agents of the workings of the economy a shape the environment b affect the environment sufficiently to ensure that rational economic agents find the observed environment consistent with their beliefs even though it is not as a by product we illustrate that endogenous macro uncertainty can arise as an outcome if rational economic agents whose expectations are anchored on endogenous variables expect them to arise finally we show that systematic errors can persist indefinitely under rationality

communication and monetary policy recent trends toward greater central bank independence and the adoption of formal inflation targeting by several countries have served to emphasize the importance of communication policy in this paper we explore some of the economic effects of public information that arise whenever public information serves the dual role of conveying fundamental information as well as serving as a focal point for better coordination more precise public information is a double edged tool while it is very effective in influencing actions through coordination sometimes it can be too effective and coordinate actions away from fundamentals copyright 2002 oxford university press

income transfers and assets of the poor contrary to the predictions of the standard life cycle model many low lifetime income households accumulate little wealth relative to their incomes compared to households with high lifetime income i use data from the panel study of income dynamics and a correlated random effects generalized method of moments estimator to decompose the rich poor gaps in wealth to permanent income ratio into the portions attributable to differences in characteristics such as labor market earnings income uncertainty observed demographics and the utilization of transfer programs which may have stringent income and liquid asset tests and those attributable to differences in the estimated coefficients on the respective characteristics the results suggest that wealth to permanent income ratios are increasing in permanent labor income and income uncertainty but that transfer income with or without asset tests discourages liquid asset accumulation the decompositions indicate that most of the rich poor wealth gap is attr

on the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics abstract in this article we investigate the possibility of sunspot equilibria to emerge from a process of learning and adaptation on agents beliefs we consider both finite state markov sunspots and sunspots in autoregressive form and derive conditions for the existence of an heterogeneous equilibrium where only a fraction of agents condition their forecasts on the sunspot we then show that when the fraction of agents conditioning their forecasts on a sunspot changes over time under evolutionary dynamics these restrictions need to evolve endogenously with population shares we argue that such requirement questions the possibility of sunspot equilibria to emerge through a process of evolution and adaptation on agents beliefs in order for a sunspot equilibrium to emerge all agents must simultaneously coordinate on the same sunspot variable at the same time

money and interest in a cash in advance economy the authors analyze an aggregative general equilibrium model in which the use of money is motivated by a cash in advance constraint applied to purchases of a subset of consumption goods the system is subject to both real and monetary shocks which are economy wide and observed by all they develop methods for verifying the existence of characterizing and explicitly calculating equilibria copyright 1987 by the econometric society

adaptive behavior and economic theory the relationship between psychological and economic views of behavior once a subject of heavy dispute is now understood in a very similar way by practitioners of both these disciplines and of our sister social sciences in general terms we view or model an individual as a collection of decision rules rules that dictate the action to be taken in given situations and a set of preferences used to evaluate the outcomes arising from particular situation action combinations these decision rules are continuously under review and revision new decision rules are tried and tested against experience and rules that produce desirable outcomes supplant those that do not i use the term adaptive to refer to this trial anderror process through which our modes of behavior are determined if one is interested in modeling particular decisions in any very explicit way it is obviously necessary to think about rather narrow aspects of an individual s entire set of decision rules his or her personality experimental psychology has traditionally focused on the adaptive process by which decision rules are replaced by others in this tradition the influence of the subject s or as an economist says the agent s preferences this essay uses a series of examples to illustrate the use of rationality and adaptation in economic theory it is argued that these hypotheses are complementary and that stability theories based on adaptive behavior may help to narrow the class of empirically interesting equilibria in certain economic models an experiment is proposed to test this idea

genetic algorithms and inflationary economies abstract this paper studies overlapping generations economies in which agents use genetic algorithms to learn correct decision rules the results of computer simulations show that a genetic algorithm converges to the unique monetary steady state in case of a constant money supply policy and to the low inflation stationary equilibrium in case of a constant real deficit financed through seignorage features of the genetic algorithm adaptation are compared to the performance of other learning algorithms and to the behavior observed in experiments with human subjects in the same olg environments

are sunspots learnable an experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model abstract we conduct experiments with human subjects in a model with a positive production externality in which productivity is a nondecreasing function of the average level of employment of other firms the model has three steady states and a sunspot equilibrium that fluctuates between the high and low steady states steady states are payoff ranked low values give lower profits than higher values we investigate whether subjects can learn a sunspot equilibrium we observe coordination on the extrinsic announcements in our experimental economies cases of apparent convergence to the low and high steady states are also observed

rational random walks the paper examines within the framework of a multi dimensional one step forward looking model a special category of rational expectations equilibria their support is infinite with two accumulation points steady states the stochastic motion of the system is of random walk type a general strategy for an existence proof associated with the study of a dynamical systemstresses necessary conditions in a simple overlapping generations model the proof is made complete no backwards bending labour supply is required in the pure sunspot case by continuity heteroclinic random walk equilibria are also shown to exist when shocks are real i introduction many economic models consider exogenous variables that follow stochastic processes of a random walk type the present paper considers a category of rational expectation equilibria in which the path of endogenous variables exhibits a similar qualitative feature the state of the system walks randomly furthermore this random walk takes place between two steady states of the system we call such equilibria random walk because of the temporal stochastic process followed by the equilibrium state heteroclinic because the support of the process connects two steady states in the state space equilibria the paper defines and discusses such equilibria and proposes a general methodology for assessing their existence it shows on a simple example that they do exist they may be either of sunspot type in the case where fluctuations are driven by beliefs only or extrinsic in cass shell 1983 terminology or non sunspot when some underlying fundamentals actually follow a random walk although the study has an exploratory dimension it strongly suggests that the random walk rational expectation equilibria under scrutiny exist within a large class of models in particular an explicit example of sunspot random walk equilibria is exhibited in a subclass of overlapping generations models that do not have traditional sunspot equilibria i e sunspot equilibria triggered by stationary markov processes finally when

learnability of an equilibrium with private information abstract this paper investigates the learnability of an equilibrium with private information agents of each type have their own private information about an exogenous variable and conduct adaptive learning with a heterogeneously misspecified perceived laws of motion plm that includes only this variable the paper shows that the existence of private information has a nonnegative impact on the learnability of the equilibrium that is the condition for learnability is unaffected or relaxed by heterogeneity and or misspecification in plms caused by private information in a new keynesian model with private information about fundamental shocks the learnability of the equilibrium is ensured by the taylor principle of monetary policy the paper also confirms that these results hold true not only in the presence of private information but also in a variety of informational structures

monetary policy expectations and commitment commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies a number of interest rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approximate commitment policy we assess these rules in terms of whether they lead to a rational expectations equilibrium that is both locally determinate and stable under adaptive learning by private agents a reaction function that appropriately depends explicitly on private sector expectations performs particularly well on both counts