integrated garch and non stationary variances evidence from european stock markets during the 1920s and 1930s abstract this paper provides a study of the persistence of stock return volatility in five european markets during the 1920s and 1930s the empirical investigation is conducted using the integrated garch model results show that for the bulk of the series shocks to volatility are permanent implying a significant impact of volatility on stock prices

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade there is a harberger laursen metzler effect abstract according to the harberger laursen metzler hlm effect an exogenous increase in the terms of trade faced by a small open economy leads to an improvement in that country s trade balance in this paper structural vector autoregression techniques are used to investigate whether there is any systematic pattern in the responses of the trade balance to terms of trade shocks for a large number of small open economies two important results emerge first there is strong support in the data for the existence of an hlm effect second the response of the trade balance and real income to a terms of trade shock implied by the structural vector autoregression model are strongly consistent with those reported by mendoza 1995 from simulating a particular dynamic stochastic equilibrium model of a small open economy

is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy abstract we examine the potential policy role of monetary aggregates by attempting to use them as effectively as possible in the analysis of empirical relationships we focus on their role as information variables since any more ambitious use such as in a policy rule would presuppose some information content in the aggregates our results show that in the united states since 1979 the monetary aggregates fall considerably short of those requirements and results with german m3 are hardly more favorable we also investigate whether empirical relationships are not reflective of information relationships because of the use of these variables in countercyclical policy the results are not consistent with that interpretation

real exchange rates trade balances and nominal shocks evidence for the g 7 abstract to identify nominal shocks in structural var models of open economies it is common practice to use purchasing power parity as a long run identifying restriction so that there are no long run effects of nominal shocks on real exchange rates however in some recent open economy intertemporal models with sticky prices nominal shocks can have long run effects on both real exchange rates and trade balances in this paper structural var models for the g 7 are identified in such a way that nominal shocks at least potentially can have long run effects on a country s real exchange rate for the g 7 nominal shocks are found to have a significant long run effect on each country s trade balance over the post bretton woods period we do not have to appeal to hysteresis effects to explain this finding for trade balances since nominal shocks are found to have a significant long run effect on each country s real exchange rate

inflation and asset returns in a monetary economy postwar u s data are characterized by negative correlations between real equity returns and inflation and by positive correlations between real equity returns and money growth these patterns are closely matched quantitatively by an equilibrium monetary asset pricing model the model also implies negative correlations between expected asset returns and expected inflation and it predicts that the inflationasset return correlation will be more strongly negative when inflation is generated by fluctuations in real economic activity than when it is generated by monetary fluctuations the co movements of real asset returns inflation and money growth have been studied extensively over the past fifteen years table i displays some of the statistical properties of these series using quarterly u s data from 1959 to 1990 note first the significantly negative correlation between real equity returns and inflation note also the negative correlation between inflation and the ex post real return to nominally riskless bonds while this fact is not particularly surprising numerous studies conclude that the correlations between ex ante real asset returns and expected inflation are also negative 2 in contrast to these patterns the correlation between money growth and real equity returns is weakly positive in the data while the correlation between money growth and the real bond return is virtually zero initially these empirical patterns were viewed as anomalies negative correlations between inflation and ex post real stock returns contradict the traditional view that equities ought to act as an inflation hedge 3 negative correlations between expected inflation and ex ante real returns violate the

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

the liquidity effect and money demand abstract i suggest a liquidity effect model in which financial intermediation costs are determined by aggregate economic activity an expansionary monetary shock leads to a persistent contraction in the loan deposit rate spread a persistent liquidity effect and a persistent real expansion a feature of this expansion is that nominal prices respond sluggishly to monetary shocks as an equilibrium outcome

economic forces fundamental variables and equity returns we investigate whether size and book to market values of equity are proxying for macroeconomic risks found in chen roll and ross s multifactor model or are measures of stocks risk exposure to relative distress we find that the role of size subsumes stocks risk exposures associated with the chen roll and ross s factors and that the chen roll and ross s multifactor model does not explain the book to market values of equity effect we also find that size and book to market values of equity are related to relative distress and that relative distress can explain the size effect but only partially the effect of book to market values of equity on average stock returns copyright 1994 by university of chicago press

the long run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies abstract we investigate the relationship between inflation and real output in a large sample of postwar economies our methodology is to use a structural vector autoregression to estimate the response of the level of real output to permanent inflation shocks separately for each country we find that a permanent shock to inflation is not associated with a permanent movement in the level of real output for most countries in our sample the main exceptions are certain low inflation countries in which permanent inflation shocks permanently increase the level of output we also find that permanent inflation shocks do not permanently influence real output growth rates in our sample

stock market returns and inflation evidence from other countries this paper investigates the relation between common stock returns and inflation in twenty six countries for the postwar period our results do not support the fisher hypothesis which states that real rates of return on common stocks and expected inflation rates are independent and that nominal stock returns vary in one to one correspondence with expected inflation there is a consistent lack of positive relation between stock returns and inflation in most of the countries

private sector involvement in the resolution of financial crises how do markets react abstract to correct the disincentives of liquidity assistance during financial crises the official sector attempts to involve the private sector in the resolution of debt crises this paper empirically tests the reaction of investors to announcements of private sector involvement psi for this purpose we disentangle shifts in risk premia incorporated in excess returns on emerging market bonds into changes in risk and shifts in the price of risk a regime switching arch m model is employed to separate two regimes with respect to the market price of risk while psi has no effect on risk it is shown that the likelihood of switching to a state with a high price of risk rises in response to psi announcements thus the results indicate that burden sharing was credible and hence effective

stock returns and inflation with supply and demand disturbances we account for the relation between stock returns and inflation with two independent disturbances supply shocks and demand shocks supply shocks reflect real output shocks and cause a negative relation between stock returns and inflation while demand shocks are mainly due to monetary shocks and generate a positive relation between stock returns and inflation we show both theoretically and empirically that the stock return inflation relation varies over time and across countries depending on the relative importance of the two types of shocks our empirical evidence is based on pre and postwar periods in the united states as well as the postwar period in the united kingdom japan germany article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

vintage production models of u k manufacturing industry vintage production models for the u k are extended to cover hours worked as a separate element of labour input the main purpose of the analysis is then to ascertain whether the output of manufacturing as measured by some index can be satisfactorily explained as a simple stable function of a small number of input aggregates

anticipated inflation and the stock market the relation between fully anticipated inflation and stock prices is analysed in this paper the stock market is modelled within the construct of a choice theoretic intertemporal general equilibrium model where transactions are subject to a cash in advance constraint here a rise of the steady state inflation rate is shown to have a depressing effect on the stock market there are two reasons for this result first the consumption goods value of a given stream of dividends is reduced when inflation rises because the latter acts as a specific tax on dividends and secondly the firm s profits are lowered because the inflation rate distorts the labour leisure choice inflation anticipee et marche boursier l auteur analyse la relation entre l inflation pleinement anticip6e et le prix des actions en bourse a l int6rieur d un modele d 6quilibre g6n6ral de choix inter temporel on insere un march6 boursier dans lequel les transactions doivent etre r6gl6es comptant d avance on voit qu un accroissement du taux d inflation en regime permanent a un effet d6pressif sur le march6 boursier cela tient a deux raisons d abord quand l inflation monte la valeur en termes de biens de consommation d un flux donn6 de dividendes est r6duite parce que l inflation agit comme taxe sp6cifique sur les dividendes ensuite les profits de l entreprise sont r6duits parce que le taux d inflation introduit une distorsion dans la choix entre travail et loisir

asymmetric effects of industrial production money supply and exchange rate changes on stock returns in turkey the aim of this article is twofold first it examines the asymmetric effects of industrial production money supply and rer on stock returns in turkey by using the non linear autoregressive distri

estimating crop specific production technologies in chinese agriculture a generalized maximum entropy approach a generalized maximum entropy approach is adapted to empirically estimate crop specific production technologies in chinese agriculture despite a modest behavioral assumption about equal marginal returns of nonland inputs among crops this method does not require price information which is usually distorted in a centrally planned economy such as china a multi output technology for chinese agriculture is estimated and input allocations for each province are recovered simultaneously the estimated multi output production technology and input allocations imply that china may have greater grain production potentials than previously thought copyright 2001 oxford university press

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

exports investments and economic development of pre accession countries of the european union an empirical investigation of bulgaria and romania this paper attempts to analyse the relationship between exports investments and economic development in two pre accession countries of the european union bulgaria and romania for investigation of this relationship a multivariate autoregressive var model is used the results of cointegration analysis showed that there is one cointegrated vector among exports investments and economic growth for the two countries granger causality tests based on error correction models ecm indicated that there is a strong granger causal relation between economic growth and exports as well as between investments and exports for the two countries in addition economic development and capital accumulation in an economy seem to have just as much of an influence on exports as exports have on capital accumulation and economic development

capacity growth in a clay clay vintage model in this paper the growth rates of capacity output and capacity demand for labour are derived for a clay clay vintage model the results are simple and directly applicable in the sense that they only depend on parameters and measurable variables

volatility persistence and stock valuations some empirical evidence using garch summary in this paper issues of volatility persistence and the changing risk premium in the stock market are investigated using the garch estimation technique we get a point estimate of the index of relative risk aversion of 4 5 and confirm the existence of changing equity premiums in the us during 1962 1985 the persistence of shocks to the stock return volatility is so high that the data cannot reject a non stationary volatility process specification the results of this paper are consistent with malkiel and pindyck s hypothesis that it is the unforseen rise ini the investment uncertainty during 1974 that causes the market to plunge

the impact of china s economic reforms on agricultural productivity growth this paper presents a method for assessing the relative importance of price increases and strengthened individual incentives due to the introduction of the responsibility system for the post 1978 increase in china s agricultural productivity data on post 1978 chinese agricultural performance suggest that a little over three quarters of the measured productivity increase is due to payment system changes and the remainder to price increases we also use our method to calculate incentive indices giving an estimate of the fraction of their marginal product that peasants received under the pre 1978 regime

the relation between stock prices and inflationary expectations the international evidence this paper provides empirical evidence on the relation between stock returns and inflationary expectations for nine countries over the period 1971 80 the fisherian assumption that real returns are independent of inflationary expectations is soundly rejected for each major stock market of the world using interest rates as a proxy for expected inflation our data provide consistent support for the geske and roll model whose basic hypothesis is that stock price movements signal negative revisions in inflationary expectations finally a weak real interest rate effect was found for some of these countries

reforms the weather and productivity growth in china s grain sector we use disaggregate county level production data to study the effects of economic reform on china s grain production between 1980 and 1990 china s grain production area is divided into five regions based on geographic agronomic and meteorological criteria regional grain production functions are estimated and weather is explicitly modeled the institutional impact of economic reform was found to explain about 38 of the production growth from 1980 to 1985 this is lower than the estimates reported in many previous studies regional differences in efficiency gains from economic reform and in the effects of weather on grain production are found to be significant

stock market volatility and the crash of 1987 evidence from six emerging markets abstract this paper studies volatility risk premia and the persistence of volatility in six emerging stock markets before and after the 1987 stock market crash the empirical investigation is conducted by means of the garch in the mean model garch m and monthly data from argentina greece india mexico thailand and zimbabwe between january of 1976 and august of 1994 results indicate changes in the arch parameter risk premia and persistence of volatility before and after the 1987 crash but these noted changes are not uniform and depend upon the individual markets factors other than the 1987 crash may also be responsible for the changes

the effects of budget deficit on national saving in the oecd abstract in this paper we estimate a structural var using a panel of oecd countries which includes national saving and budget deficit both as the ratio to gdp to test the ricardian equivalence hypothesis in this framework we separate saving and deficit movements into two types of shocks associated with structural parameters of these economies our results suggest that ricardian equivalence did not work in our sample of oecd countries since private saving compensated only a small fraction budget deficit this supports the interpretation that the large budget deficits have been a very important factor behind the significant increase in real interest rates in the eighties and early nineties

monetary regimes and the relation between stock returns and inflationary expectations this paper analyzes the impact of changes in monetary policy regimes on the relation between stock returns and changes in expected inflation post war evidence from four countries reveals a direct link between these relations and the central banks operating targets i e money supply or interest rates specifically the post war negative relations between stock returns and changes in expected inflation are significantly stronger during interest rate regimes

stock market cycles financial liberalization and volatility in this paper we analyze the cycles of the stock markets in four latin american and two asian countries and we compare their characteristics we divide our sample in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the financial liberalization processes of the early 1990s we find that cycles in emerging countries tend to have shorter duration and larger amplitude and volatility than in developed countries however after financial liberalization latin american stock markets have behaved more similarly to stock markets in developed countries whereas asian countries have become more dissimilar concordance of cycles across markets has increased significantly over time especially for latin american countries after liberalization

rural reforms and agricultural growth in china this paper employs province level panel data to assess the contributions of decollectivization price adjustments and other reforms to china s agricultural growth in the reform period decollectivization is found to improve total factor productivity and to account for about half of the output growth during 1978 84 the adjustment in state procurement prices also contributed positively to output growth its impact came mainly from the responses in input use the effect of other market related reforms on productivity and output growth was very small reasons for slowdown in agricultural growth after 1984 are also analyzed copyright 1992 by american economic association

arch models properties estimation and testing abstract the aim of this survey paper is to provide an account of some of the important developments in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch model since its inception in a seminal paper by engle 1982 this model takes account of many observed properties of asset prices and therefore various interpretations can be attributed to it we start with the basic arch models and discuss their different interpretations arch models have been generalized in different directions to accommodate more and more features of the real world we provide a comprehensive treatment of many of the extensions of the original arch model next we discuss estimation and testing for arch models and note that these models lead to some interesting and unique problems there have been numerous applications and we mention some of these as we present different models the paper includes a glossary of the acronyms for the models we describe

the changing structure of the world rice market 1950 2000 abstract the world rice market has been unstable for much of its post world war ii history with prices volatile and the availability of supplies uncertain these characteristics exemplified by the world food crisis of the mid 1970s influenced domestic price and production policies in a number of asian countries however the structure of the world rice market has evolved and changed during the past 50 years this paper identifies three distinct phases in the history of the market based on trends in the level and stability of production and the trade orientation of major exporters the level and stability of production increased steadily over the entire period exporters have generally been active in the world market with the period 1965 1981 being an important exception since the mid 1980s prices have been low and quite stable and the patterns identified in the paper suggest that prices will remain so in the future the policy implication is that asian rice importers can afford to rely more on the world market than was warranted in the past

china s past and future role in the grain trade china s grain production consumption and trade are key factors in the world grain market in the 1960s china emerged as a major wheat importer and observers expect this situation to continue mainly because china has 20 of the world s population but only 7 of the earth s arable land in the early 1980s china was the second largest importer of wheat in the world ranking behind the ussr china s wheat imports then dropped off sharply in the mid 1980s but rose again in the late 1980s and this trade behavior created much uncertainty surrounding its future role in the grain trade the purpose of this article is to analyze china s historical role in the world grain markets to study the impact of the 1979 economic reforms on china s grain production consumption and trade 2 and to evaluate the probable participation of china in the grain trade in future years china is so large that regional differences in climate level of development and growth rates in grain production are substantial because of this regional heterogeneity this article attempts a disaggregated analysis of china s grain economy

oil price shocks and employment the case of ohio coal mining economic theory suggests that oil price shocks will have an impact on employment in local coal markets however theory is silent on both the absolute and relative magnitudes based on vector autoregressive models we find that oil price shocks and therefore opec policies have significant impacts on ohio coal mining employment our study indicates that oil price shocks have larger impacts on ohio coal mining employment than do shocks to coal prices or coal wages our study is unusual in that we have examined the impact of oil price shocks on employment in a specific industry

risk inflation and the stock market most explanations for the decline in share values over the past two decades have focused on the concurrent increase in inflation this paper considers an alternative explanation a substantial increase in the riskiness of capital investments we show that the variance of firms real gross marginal return on capital has increased significantly increasing the relative riskiness of investors returns on equity and that this can explain a large part of the market decline we also assess the effects of increase in the mean and variance of the inflation rate and a decline in firms expected return on capital this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

common trends and convergence south east asian equity markets 1988 1999 abstract this paper uses two different estimation approaches to demonstrate that equity markets in south east asia have shown signs of converging during the 1990s according to the haldane and hall economic journal 101 436 443 1991 method of measuring convergence a subset of asian markets had converged by mid 1997 this process appears to have been abruptly halted and somewhat reversed by the recent financial crisis we find that in general there are two common trends present in the eight asian equity market indices modeled here and also two trends when the us market is additionally included in a johansen var

demand and supply shocks in italy an application to industrial output abstract we investigate the impact of three different kinds of disturbances on industrial output in italy they originate respectively in aggregate demand technology and the labour supply we first illustrate the theoretical restrictions which permit identification of the three shocks then econometric identification is achieved by extending the blanchard and quah 1989 the american economic review 79 pp 655 673 procedure to a multivariate case our main conclusion is that output variability is significantly affected by technological shocks at all frequencies labour supply disturbances are also relevant while demand shocks have a minor impact on the series although they act in the expected direction therefore the short run behaviour of industrial production is largely explained by supply side shocks

relative price variability real shocks and the stock market in this paper we investigate the effects of relative price variability on output and the stock market and gauge the extent to which inflation proxies for relative price variability in stock return inflation regressions the evidence shows that the negative stock returninflation relations proxy for the adverse effects of relative price variability on economic activity particularly during the seventies when the u s experienced oil supply shocks hence it appears that inflation spuriously affects the stock market in two ways the aggregate output link of fama 1981 and the supply shocks reflected in relative price variability a number of papers have attempted to explain the anomalous negative relations between stock returns and inflation witnessed in the post war period one hypothesis that has held up well in light of empirical evidence suggests that the negative relation between stock returns and unexpected inflation simply reflects the more fundamental positive relation between stock returns and future real variables see e g fama 1981 geske and roll 1983 and kaul 1987 1989 in this paper we investigate the effects of relative price variability on output and the stock market and gauge the extent to which inflation proxies for relative price variability in stock return inflation regressions first relative price variability can have detrimental effects on output and employment see e g friedman 1977 and barro 1976 second absolute relative price confusion models of the lucas 1973 type suggest that monetary shocks can induce a positive relation between inflation and relative price variability see e g cukierman 1983 hence the negative stock return inflation relations could simply be a reflection of the negative effects of relative price variability on the stock market we use data for the 1947 1985 period to test the various links of our hypothesis the results indicate that relative price variability is positively related to both expected and unexpected inflation measures relative price variability also has a significant negative effect on output and the stock market more importantly

effects of technological change and institutional reform on production growth in chinese agriculture recent rapid agricultural production growth in chinese agriculture could be attributed to an increase in inputs technological change and institutional reform an accounting approach was used to separate the relative contribution of these three factors institutional change like the introduction of the household production responsibility system has contributed to past growth in production however technological change is crucial to furthering production growth because of the limited potential for significant increase in the use of conventional inputs in particular land continued institutional change must accompany corresponding technological changes

the persistence of volatility and stock market fluctuations this paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices it demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated implying that shocks to volatility do not persist these shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices since changes in volatility affect expected required rates of return for relatively short intervals these findings lead us to be skeptical of recent claims that the stock market s poor performance during the 1970 s can be explained by volatility induced increases in risk premia this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

effects of us interest rates and news on the daily interest rates of a highly indebted emerging economy evidence from turkey it has been widely demonstrated that asset prices react sensitively to macroeconomic news releases both in the industrialized countries and emerging markets however there are contradicting results on the effects of changes in interest rates of industrialized countries on asset prices of emerging markets in heavily indebted economies in addition to these factors political news and announcements from international institutions that may increase or decrease concerns about debt sustainability can affect asset prices as well this potential notwithstanding there has been relatively limited empirical work on the effects of such variables the objective of this study is to quantify the impact of all of these factors on interest rates of a highly indebted emerging economy using daily post crisis data of the turkish economy we show that both good and bad political news international monetary fund announcements and european union related news significantly affected secondary market government securities yi

industry returns and the fisher effect we investigate the cross sectional relation between industry sorted stock returns and expected inflation and we find that this relation is linked to cyclical movements in industry output stock returns of noncyclical industries tend to covary positively with expected inflation while the reverse holds for cyclical industries from a theoretical perspective we describe a model that captures both i the cross sectional variation in these relations across industries and ii the negative and positive relation between stock returns and inflation at short and long horizons respectively the model is developed in an economic environment in which the spirit of the fisher model is preserved the fisher model states that expected nominal rates of return on assets should move one for one with expected inflation this belief is generally attributed to irving fisher s 1930 work on interest rates in particular to his view that the real and monetary sectors are causally independent in an apparent contradiction to the fisher hypothesis however it is a common empirical finding that stock returns are negatively related to both expected and realized inflation 1 this negative correlation is especially surprising for stocks which as claims against real assets should compensate for movements in inflation we provide two main contributions to the existing literature on the relation between stock returns and inflation the first contribution of the article is to provide a theoretical description of the cross sectional relation between stock returns and expected inflation we describe an asset pricing model that predicts cross sectional variation in the coefficients of expected inflation across various industry portfolios an interesting feature of the model is that it synthesizes some of the more palatable features of existing explanations of the negative relation between inflation and returns of special interest is the development of the model in a money neutral world so that the basic premise underlying fisher s work is maintained since most theoretical models of the

the effects of macroeconomic shocks on sector specific returns the reliance on market and sector specific indexes to evaluate managed portfolios and the popularity of index investing has increased the importance of understanding what leads to market movements how long they may last and how different sectors respond to macroeconomic shocks this research is concerned with how shocks to macroeconomic variables affect five major s p sector specific stock market indexes the paper employs the newly developed econometric technique of generalized impulse response analysis the results identify the various responses of the sectors to unanticipated changes in some key macroeconomic variables asset prices are commonly believed to react sensitively to economic news daily experience seems to support the view that individual asset prices are influenced by a wide variety of unanticipated events and that some events have a more pervasive effect on asset prices than do others chen et al 1986 p 386

the impact of grain self sufficiency regime on regional welfare and agricultural productivity in china the nineties agricultural reforms in china that were aimed at deregulating the agricultural market eventually resulted in a huge drop in agricultural production and a high rate of inflation in agricultural input prices this apparently motivated the government to introduce the grain self sufficiency regime in 1998 we examine how and to what extent this reform affected the productivity and welfare of grain farmers in china at the regional level we find that the price regulations that destroyed the incentive to exert more effort adversely affected the growth in agricultural productivity but contributed to the growth in farmers welfare although the price regulations resulted in short term improvement in welfare across all the regions in the long run such regulations can potentially result in larger drop in agricultural production because of its negative impact on the incentives to produce more

total factor productivity change in china s farming sector 1952 1989 a crucial problem in economic development is choosing institutions that are relatively efficient in resource allocation and conducive to growth however institutional innovations usually take time and it is often difficult to isolate these effects from the effects of noninstitutional factors modern china is one of the few exceptions it offers a rich experience in dramatic institutional changes after 1949 a smallholder system was experimented with immediately after the land reform this was quickly followed by various forms of collectivization since 1979 the household responsibility system hrs has gradually replaced the commune system thus china provides a unique opportunity for a comparative study of these different rural institutions in terms of the total factor productivity index tfpi this index measures the change in output relative to the change in inputs the examination of the tfpi also has policy implications the apparent plateau in grain production and the slow growth in other crop production from 1985 to 1989 constitute a sharp contrast to the period 1979 84 which witnessed rapid growth in both grain and economic crop production in china public ownership is favored by orthodox ideology and noneconomic factors often play an important role in economic life 2 in facing slower growth in crop production whether the hrs should or should not be the long term rural institution has become a sensitive question again and has kindled a heated debate within china in this study i will examine the performance of the successive rural institutions in china in terms of changes in the tfpi over the period 1952 89 using 1989 as the final year of my study the most important finding of this study is that the hrs showed a clear advan

an intercountry comparison of agricultural production efficiency intercountry cross section comparison of total productivity in agriculture showed that differences in production efficiency were small relative to differences in labor productivity among countries at a same stage of economic development but very large among different stages of development moreover the large differences in total productivity between the developed and the less developed countries widened further during the past two decades the results suggest a hypothesis that agriculture in the less developed countries as a whole has not yet entered the phase of modern economic growth a la kuznets

china s regional agricultural productivity growth in 1985 2007 a multilateral comparison1 in this study we estimate total factor productivity tfp growth as well as multilateral tfp index for 25 contiguous china provinces over the 1985 2007 period agricultural output growth for each province was decomposed into tfp growth and input growth where input growth was further disaggregated into contributions from growth of labor capital land and intermediate goods over the study period tfp growth contributed 2 7 percentage points to output growth annually which was slightly higher than the input growth contribution of 2 4 percentage points per annum on average the annual rate of productivity growth peaked during 1996 2000 at 5 1 it slowed in 2000 2005 to a rate of 3 2 per annum and declined in the most recent years 2005 2007 to 3 7 differences in productivity among regions persisted over the entire period the tendency toward faster tfp growth in relatively well off coastal regions may imply a widening of regional inequality

solving estimating and testing a nonlinear stochastic equilibrium model with an example of the asset returns and inflation relationship abstract this paper describes a method for solving estimating and testing a fully specified nonlinear stochastic equilibrium model by simulation a nonlinear stochastic asset pricing model with production and money is formulated which aims to explain observed empirical relations between inflation and asset returns complete solution paths to the equilibrium model are generated through a backwards mapping method the parameters of the model are estimated by simulation taking account of the broad range of dynamics of the model and overidentifying restrictions of the model are tested by extending gmm procedures

persistence in variance structural change and the garch model this article examines the persistence of the variance as measured by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model in stock return data in particular we investigate the extent to which persistence in variance may be overstated because of the existence of and failure to take account of deterministic structural shifts in the model both an analysis of daily stock return data and a monte carlo simulation experiment confirm the hypothesis that garch measures of persistence in variance are sensitive to this type of model misspecification

a varma analysis of the causal relations among stock returns real output and nominal interest rates previous research has documented a negative relation between common stock returns and inflation recently fama 3 and geske and roll 6 have argued that this relation results from a more fundamental one between real activity and expected inflation stock returns they argue signal changes in real activity which in turn affect expected inflation however unlike fama geske and roll argue that changes in real activity result in changes in money supply growth which in turn affect expected inflation empirical tests have analyzed separately each link in the proposed causal chain in this article we investigate simultaneously the relations among stock returns real activity inflation and money supply changes using a vector autoregressive moving average varma model our empirical results strongly support geske and roll s reversed causality model there have been many attempts to explain the negative relations observed between stock returns and expected inflation changes in expected inflation and unexpected inflation 1 these phenomena documented by fama and schwert 5 are troublesome because they appear contrary both to fisher s theory that nominal asset returns are positively related to expected inflation and to received wisdom that common stocks are hedges against expected as well as unexpected inflation fama 3 suggests an explanation for the observed negative relation between stock returns and inflation based on money demand theory an increase in anticipated real activity leads he argues to an increase in the demand for real money balances given the level of nominal money the increased demand for real money balances must be accommodated by a fall in the price level because stock returns are assumed to be positively related to expected future real activity a negative relation between inflation and stock returns is induced however this negative relation is merely a proxy for the more fundamental relation between anticipated real activity and stock returns therefore fama argues that the observed relation between stock returns and inflation is spurious as noted by fama and others this line of reasoning cannot explain completely the negative relation between stock returns and inflation fama finds that measures of unexpected inflation are significant determinants of monthly stock returns in regressions where anticipated real activity is included as an explanatory variable in addition the explanatory power of expected inflation is eliminated

a simple way of determining the supply side in macroeconomic models abstract this paper suggests a simple way for determining the supply side in macroeconomic models based on a clay clay type vintage production model shown is how production capacity and utilization rates can be quantified for germany the netherlands the united kingdom and the united states

stock returns and volatility most asset pricing models postulate a positive relationship between a stock portfolio s expected returns and risk which is often modeled by the variance of the asset price this paper uses garch in mean models to examine the relationship between mean returns on a stock portfolio and its conditional variance or standard deviation after estimating a variety of models from daily and monthly portfolio return data we conclude that any relationship between mean returns and own variance or standard deviation is weak the results suggest that investors consider some other risk measure to be more important than the variance of portfolio returns