eradicating diseases the effect of conditional cash transfers on vaccination coverage in rural nicaragua despite significant global efforts to improve vaccination coverage against major childhood diseases vaccination rates are below 90 to eradicate diseases such as measles however vaccination rates close to 95 are needed we use a randomized experiment to investigate the effect of a demand incentive a conditional cash transfer program in improving vaccination coverage in rural nicaragua double difference estimates show the program led to large increases in vaccination coverage and these resulted in vaccination levels greater than 95 for some vaccines effects were especially large for children who are typically harder to reach with traditional supply side interventions

the long run effects of unemployment monitoring and work search programs experimental evidence from the united kingdom this article examines the long run effects of the restart unemployment program in the united kingdom the program aimed at the long term unemployed involved a combination of tighter monitoring of benefit eligibility rules and increased job search assistance we compare the employment behavior of a treatment group who participated in the scheme with that of a randomly chosen control group for whom participation was delayed while there is little evidence of a long term benefit for women the unemployment rate among males in the treatment group was six percentage points lower than that of the control group 5 years after the initial experiment

the microfinance promise in the past decade microfinance programs have demonstrated that it is possible to lend to low income households while maintaining high repayment rates even without requiring collateral the programs promise a revolution in approaches to alleviating poverty and spreading financial services and millions of poor households are served globally a growing body of economic theory demonstrates how new contractual forms offer a key to microfinance success particularly the use of group lending contracts with joint liability for the most part however high repayment rates have not translated into profits and studies of impacts on poverty yield a mixed picture in describing emerging tensions the paper highlights the diversity of innovative mechanisms beyond group lending contracts the measurement of financial sustainability the estimation of economic and social impacts the costs and benefits of subsidization and the potential to reduce poverty through savings programs rather than just credit the promise of microfinance has pushed far ahead of the evidence and an agenda is put forward for addressing critical empirical gaps and sharpening the terms of policy discussion

the use of quantile regressions in estimating gender wage differentials a case study of the philippines quantile regressions are used to analyse the size components and nature of the gender earnings differentials as well as the returns to education by gender in the philippines over the entire conditional distribution of earnings using data from the 1999 apis survey this approach allows more focused conclusions about the nature of gender earnings differentials incorporating the quantile regression approach to the oaxaca blinder decomposition allows the localization of gender discrimination to particular quantiles of the earnings distribution and permits more targeted policy intervention

risk preferences are not time preferences balancing on a budget line comment in a recent experimental study of intertemporal risky decision making andreoni and sprenger 2012 find that subjects exhibit a preference for intertemporal diversification which is inconsistent with discounted expected utility theory it was claimed that their results are also at odds with models involving probability weighting such as rank dependent utility and cumulative prospect theory here we demonstrate however that rank dependent probability weighting explains intertemporal diversification if decision makers care about portfolio risk moreover we provide a unified account of all of andreoni and sprenger s key findings

enhancing the internal validity of entrepreneurship experiments by assessing treatment effects at multiple levels across multiple trials abstract treatment effects in entrepreneurship experiments could vary significantly due to environmental uncertainty and individual heterogeneity drawing on critical realism experimental replication is useful for assessing the generalizability of the treatment effects or for confirming treatment effects across diverse entrepreneurship settings yet experiments in entrepreneurship have traditionally relied on single experimental trials and have not considered potential variance in treatment effects across contexts accounting for variance in treatment effects is even more pertinent under higher levels of environmental uncertainty to help assess the contingent effects of treatments across contexts we propose a set of methodological and statistical approaches for entrepreneurship researchers using different types of experimental replications and proposed statistical methods one may draw inferences about treatment effects at the trial the treatment and at the individual level we illustrate the proposed approach using experimental replications across three randomized post test experiments

a reanalyis of marital stability in the seattle denver income maintenance experiment this paper challenges the widely cited finding of groeneveld hannan and tuma that the seattle denver income maintenance experiment provides evidence that guaranteed income plans for poor husband wife families will increase marital dissolution relative to the existing program aid to families with dependent children the reanalysis of the experimental data distinguishes between the experimental treatment in the form of the pure negative income tax and the treatment plans that involved an experimental training program all the time periods of the experiment are used with allowance for the timing of the marital dissolution in the inferences and with allowance for attrition the conclusion of this paper is that the plans specifically the negative income tax plans in the experiment had no effect on the rate of marital dissolutions among the treatment couples relative to the control couples

evaluating social policy by experimental and nonexperimental methods although it is important to establish causal relationships in social policy evaluation the effects are difficult to observe due to sample selection to evaluate the performance of estimators designed to handle sample selection bias we analyse data from a norwegian rehabilitation project with a randomised experimental design the data permit us to compare the performance of different nonexperimental estimators with the experimental results in our case study we find that nonexperimental evaluation based on sample selection estimators with selection terms that fail to meet conventional levels of statistical significance is highly unreliable the difference in difference estimator and propensity score matching estimators perform better in our context jel classification c51 j24 h43 i12

instant gratification temporal discounting and self employment differences in temporal discounting could separate self employed individuals from employees working for wages drawing on a sample of 13 198 individuals from the 2012 2013 cross sectional step skills measurement survey we find that higher temporal discounting is more positively associated with the likelihood of self employment we further find that younger individuals with higher temporal discounting are more likely to engage in self employment the association of lower socioeconomic status at a young age or those who experienced economic shocks at a young age with the likelihood of self employment is only significant when interaction effects of temporal discounting and age are present in the model risk seeking is not associated with the likelihood of engagement in self employment under higher discounting these findings have implications for the self employment literature as well as the literature on behavioral decision making

the social experiment market social experiments are field studies of social programs in which individuals households or in rare instances firms or organizations are randomly assigned to two or more alternative policy interventions or treatments treatments tested by social experiments have included negative income taxes low income housing assistance co insurance rates re employment bonuses welfare to work initiatives job training time of day electric rates and case management models of human service delivery the results of such experiments not only supply the public with policy relevant information but also provide employment and insight to economists this article examines the social experiments market and the characteristics of the rather complex product exchanged in this market we investigate the social experiment industry with data extracted from the digest of social experiments greenberg and shroder 1997 augmented by interviews with buyers and sellers in the market to qualify for a 2 3 page entry in the digest the human subjects had to be randomly assigned among the treatments each of which could involve different incentives opportunities or constraints data were then collected on market and or fiscal outcomes and subjected to professional evaluation the definition of experiment used for the digest and this article is deliberately narrow we do not cover the numerous evaluations of social programs

assessing the case for social experiments rs ecent academic debates pit two alternative approaches to policy evaluation against one another the first is the experimental approach based on the random assignment of accepted program applicants to a recipient or treatment group and a non recipient or control group the second is the nonexperimental or econometric approach that uses a variety of microdata sources statistical methods and behavioral models to compare the outcomes of participants in social programs with those of nonparticipants the central question addressed in this paper is whether or not randomized social experiments aid in securing answers to basic questions about the evaluation of social programs there are many distinct and complementary approaches to the study of the impact of public policy including full general equilibrium analysis of policy impacts tinbergen 1956 auerbach and kotlikoff 1987 shoven and whalley 1992 kydland and prescott 1991 and less ambitious partial equilibrium microeconomic structural research programs such as those designed to estimate the impact of taxes on labor supply both approaches offer answers to many interesting counterfactual policy questions but their credibility rests critically on the quality of the empirical input used to generate their answers

the impact of group lending in northeast thailand abstract much of the literature on group lending focuses on its high repayment rates rather than its goal of promoting borrower welfare most studies that attempt to measure the impact of group lending neglect the issues of self selection and endogenous program placement thus leading to biased estimates of impact one reason for this neglect is the lack of data that would allow for identification of impact this paper surmounts these problems by using data from a quasi experiment conducted in northeast thailand in 1995 1996 program participants were identified in six control villages 1 year prior to receiving loans surveys were then conducted of these control members treatment members in eight older program villages and nonmembers in both types of village this survey design allows for straightforward estimation of impact the results indicate that program loans are having little impact although naive estimates of impact that fail to account for self selection and endogenous program placement significantly overestimate impact

social motives vs social influence an experiment on interdependent time preferences we report experimental evidence on the effects of social preferences on intertemporal decisions to this aim we design an intertemporal dictator game to test whether dictators modify their discounting behavior when their own decision is imposed on their matched recipients we run four different treatments to identify the effect of payoffs externalities from those related to information and beliefs our descriptive statistics show that heterogeneous social time preferences and information about others time preferences are significant determinants of choices dictators display a marked propensity to account for the intertemporal preferences of recipients both in the presence of externalities social motives and or when they know about the decisions of their matched partners social influence we also perform a structural estimation exercise to control for heterogeneity in risk attitudes as for individual behavior our estimates confirm previous studies in that high risk aversion is associated with low discounting as for social behavior we find that social motives outweigh social influence especially when we restrict our sample to pairs of dictators and recipients who satisfy minimal consistency conditions

instruments randomization and learning about development there is currently much debate about the effectiveness of foreign aid and about what kind of projects can engender economic development there is skepticism about the ability of econometric analysis to resolve these issues or of development agencies to learn from their own experience in response there is increasing use in development economics of randomized controlled trials rcts to accumulate credible knowledge of what works without overreliance on questionable theory or statistical methods when rcts are not possible the proponents of these methods advocate quasirandomization through instrumental variable iv techniques or natural experiments i argue that many of these applications are unlikely to recover quantities that are useful for policy or understanding two key issues are the misunderstanding of exogeneity and the handling of heterogeneity i illustrate from the literature on aid and growth actual randomization faces similar problems as does quasi randomization notwithstanding rhetoric to the contrary i argue that experiments have no special ability to produce more credible knowledge than other methods and that actual experiments are frequently subject to practical problems that undermine any claims to statistical or epistemic superiority i illustrate using prominent experiments in development and elsewhere as with iv methods rct based evaluation of projects without guidance from an understanding of underlying mechanisms is unlikely to lead to scientific progress in the understanding of economic development i welcome recent trends in development experimentation away from the evaluation of projects and toward the evaluation of theoretical mechanisms jel c21 f35 o19

risk preferences are not time preferences on the elicitation of time preference under conditions of risk comment andreoni and sprenger 2012a b report evidence that distinct utility functions govern choices under certainty and risk i investigate the robustness of this result to the experimental design i find that the effect disappears completely when a multiple price list instrument is used instead of a convex time budget design alternatively the effect is reduced by half when sooner and later payment risks are realized using a single lottery instead of two independent lotteries the result is thus at least partially driven by intertemporal diversification supporting an explanation in terms of concavity of the intertemporal and not only atemporal utility function jel c91 d81 d91

ambiguity aversion and comparative ignorance decisions under uncertainty depend not only on the degree of uncertainty but also on its source as illustrated by ellsberg s observation of ambiguity aversion in this article we propose the comparative ignorance hypothesis according to which ambiguity aversion is produced by a comparison with less ambiguous events or with more knowledgeable individuals this hypothesis is supported in a series of studies showing that ambiguity aversion present in a comparative context in which a person evaluates both clear and vague prospects seems to disappear in a noncomparative context in which a person evaluates only one of these prospects in isolation

programme evaluation with multiple treatments this paper reviews the main identification and estimation strategies for microeconometric policy evaluation particular emphasis is laid on evaluating policies consisting of multiple programmes which is of high relevance in practice for example active labour market policies may consist of different training programmes employment programmes and wage subsidies similarly sickness rehabilitation policies often offer different vocational as well as non vocational rehabilitation measures first the main identification strategies control for confounding variables difference in difference instrumental variable and regression discontinuity identification are discussed in the multiple programme setting thereafter the different nonparametric matching and weighting estimators of the average treatment effects and their properties are examined download discussion paper pdf 484 kb

participation in school sponsored sports and academic spillovers new evidence from the early childhood longitudinal survey the link between participation in school sponsored sports and academic performance has been studied extensively in the literature whilst previous studies tend to show positive academic spillovers

assessing an experimental approach to industrial policy evaluation applying rct to the case of creative credits experimental methods of policy evaluation are well established in social policy and development eco nomics but are rare in industrial and innovation policy in this paper we consider the arguments forapplying experimental methods to industrial policy measures and propose an experimental policy eval uation approach which we call rct this approach combines the randomised assignment of firmsto treatment and control groups with a longitudinal data collection strategy incorporating quantitativeand qualitative data so called mixed methods the rct approach is designed to provide a causativerather than purely summative evaluation i e to assess both whether and how programme outcomesare achieved in this paper we assess the rct approach through an evaluation of creative credits auk business to business innovation voucher initiative intended to promote new innovation partnershipsbetween smes and creative service providers the results suggest the potential value of the rct approachto industrial policy evaluation and the benefits of mixed methods and longitudinal data collection

using electoral cycles in police hiring to estimate the effect of police on crime comment previous empirical studies have uncovered little evidence that police reduce crime possibly due to simultaneity problems this paper uses the timing of mayoral and gubernatorial elections as an instrumental variable to identify a causal effect of police on crime increases in the size of police forces are shown to be disproportionately concentrated in mayoral and gubernatorial election years increases in police are shown to substantially reduce violent crime but have a smaller impact on property crime the null hypothesis that the marginal social benefit of reduced crime equals the costs of hiring additional police cannot be rejected

the econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles early in this century american institutionists and members of the german historical school attacked and rightfully so neoclassical economic theory for not being quantitative this deficiency bothered ragnar frisch and motivated him along with irving fisher joseph schumpeter and others to organize the econometric society in 1930 the aim of the society was to foster the development of quantitative economic theory that is the development of what frisch labeled econometrics soon after its inception the society started the journal econometrica frisch was the journal s first editor and served in this capacity for twenty five years

memory and discounting theory and evidence abstract heterogeneous memory capacity is largely neglected in the economics literature although it may have profound economic implications adopting the concept of memory utility proposed by gilboa postlewaite and samuelson 2016 we explore the relationship between memory capacity and individual discounting behavior by building a simple two period model and comparing its predictions with experimental data both theoretical and experimental evidence confirm that memory capacity and discount rates are positively correlated

is there one unifying concept of utility an experimental comparison of utility under risk and utility over time the nature of utility is controversial whereas decision theory commonly assumes that utility is context specific applied and empirical decision analysis typically assumes one unifying concept of utility applicable to all decision problems this controversy has hardly been addressed empirically because of the absence of methods to measure utility outside the context of risk we introduce a method to measure utility over time and compare utility under risk and utility over time we distinguish between gains and losses and also measure loss aversion in two experiments we found that utility under risk and utility over time differed and were uncorrelated utility under risk was more curved than utility over time subjects were loss averse both for risk and for time but loss aversion was more pronounced for risk loss aversion over risk and time were uncorrelated this suggests that loss aversion although important in both decision contexts is volatile and subject to framing

evaluating welfare reform waivers under section 1115 beginning in 1962 section 1115 of the social security act allowed the u s secretary of health and human services to waive specific provisions of the act within individual states allowing them to implement welfare experiments or demonstration projects to reduce welfare recipiency ease transitions into the labor market for welfare clients or otherwise advance the objectives of the aid to families with dependent children afdc program the period between 1987 and 1996 was an especially active time for welfare reform waiver applications each section 1115 waiver application required a plan for evaluating the effects of the proposed changes in the afdc program this period of active welfare reform and experimentation accompanied by a rigorous evaluation component held the promise of an unparalleled opportunity to examine and document the effects of proposed welfare reform measures in this paper we review the section 1115 welfare reform and evaluation activity conducted by states during the bush and clinton administrations ending in august 1996 when the personal responsibility and work opportunity reconciliation act was passed by congress we base the review on publicly available data from the u s department of health and human services and on interviews we conducted with both state project managers and evaluators from each of the 44 states that had received section 1115 welfare reform waivers between 1992 and the passage of the 1996 welfare reform act

securitization and bank performance theory suggests that securitization provides financial institutions with an opportunity to lower the cost of funding improve credit risk management and increase profitability in practice however it might lead to adverse consequences through a number of indirect channels therefore the net impact of securitization on bank performance is ambiguous this study aims to evaluate whether banks improve their performance through the use of the securitization market by applying a propensity score matching approach in other words we build a counterfactual group of banks to assess what would have happened to the securitizing banks had they not securitized using us commercial banking data from 2001 to 2008 we first test these hypotheses using univariate analysis and find that securitizing banks are on average more profitable institutions with higher credit risk exposure and higher cost of funding however the propensity score matching analysis does not provide evidence of significant causal effects of securitization on the performance of banks therefore securitization does not seem to outperform alternative funding risk management and profitability improvement techniques used by banks that have ex ante similar characteristics to those securitizing our evidence raises important questions about the motives for banks increasing securitization activities and consequent implications for the banking system

the pre programme earnings dip and the determinants of participation in a social programme implications for simple programme evaluation strategies the key to estimating the impact of a programme is constructing the counterfactual outcome representing what would have happened in its absence this problem becomes more complicated when agents such as individuals firms or local governments self select into the programme rather than being exogenously assigned to it this paper uses data from a major social experiment to identify what would have happened to the earnings of self selected participants in a job training programme had they not participated in it we investigate the implications of these earnings patterns for the validity of widely used before after and difference in differences estimators

piece rates fixed wages and incentives evidence from a field experiment data from a field experiment are used to estimate the gain in productivity that is realized when workers are paid piece rates rather than fixed wages the experiment was conducted within a tree planting firm and provides daily observations on individual worker productivity under both compensation systems unrestricted statistical methods estimate the productivity gain to be 20 since planting conditions potentially affect incentives structural econometric methods are used to generalize the experimental results to out of sample conditions the structural results suggest that the average productivity gain outside of the experimental conditions would be at least 21 7

convex time budgets and individual discount rates in the long run the purpose of this study is to use experimental data to estimate individual discount rates and test for hyperbolic discounting over a long time horizon to do this we employ the convex time budget experimental approach with cash payments over a 20 year time horizon to date there are few experimental studies that explore discount rates beyond a 1 year time horizon previous experimental studies that focus on short time horizons find high discount rates which may not be applicable to decisions that affect outcomes in the distant future our findings are quite similar to the average rate of 4 9 found by grijalva et al environ resour econ 59 39 63 2014 who similarly use a 20 year time horizon but use the multiple price list elicitation method along with payment via government savings bonds we find annual discounts rates in the range of 1 9 5 5 depending on the specific model used we also find evidence for declining discount rates and that this hyperbolic pattern of behavior is related to the confidence subjects have in receiving distant future payments

risk attitudes randomization to treatment and self selection into experiments randomization to treatment is fundamental to statistical control in the design of experiments however randomization implies some uncertainty about treatment condition and individuals differ in their preferences towards taking on risk since human subjects often volunteer for experiments or are allowed to drop out of the experiment at any time if they want to it is possible that the sample observed in an experiment might be biased because of the risk of randomization on the other hand the widespread use of a guaranteed show up fee that is non stochastic may generate sample selection biases of the opposite direction encouraging more risk averse samples into experiments we directly test these hypotheses that risk attitudes play a role in sample selection our results suggest that randomization bias does affect the overall level of risk aversion in the sample we observe but that it does not affect the demographic mix of risk attitudes in the sample we show that the common use of non stochastic show up fees can generate samples that are more risk averse than would otherwise have been observed

human capital pricing equations with an application to estimating the effect of schooling quality on earnings this paper formulates and estimates alternative models for the pricing of labor services we present economic models that rationalize empirical specifications in the literature and we offer evidence on the validity of those specifications widely used efficiency units models of labor services are inconsistent with evidence from the u s labor market a model of heterogeneous skills provides a more accurate description of earnings data we present evidence that the pursuit of comparative advantage and selective migration are important features of the u s labor market when these features are included in the model the only support for an effect of schooling quality on earnings is through the return to college education three interactions are empirically important in explaining log wage equations a between schooling quality and education b between regional labor market shocks and education and c between region of residence and regionof birth because of this third interaction which can arise from comparative advantage in the labor market no unique quality effect on returns to education can be defined independently of the market in which it is used

making the most out of programme evaluations and social experiments accounting for heterogeneity in programme impacts the conventional approach to social programme evaluation focuses on estimating mean impacts of programmes yet many interesting questions regarding the political economy of programmes the distribution of programme benefits and the option values conferred on programme participants require knowledge of the distribution of impacts or features of it this paper presents evidence that heterogeneity in response to programmes is empirically important and that classical probability inequalities are not very informative in producing estimates or bounds on the distribution of programme impacts we explore two methods for supplementing the information in these inequalities based on assumptions about participant decision making processes and about the strength in dependence between outcomes in the participation and non participation states dependence is produced as a consequence of rational choice by participants we test for stochastic rationality among programme participants and present and implement methods for estimating the option values of social programmes

incomplete market demand tests for kreps porteus selden preferences abstract what does utility maximization subject to a budget constraint imply for intertemporal choice under uncertainty assuming consumers face a two period consumption portfolio problem where asset markets are incomplete we address this question following both the standard local infinitesimal and finite data approaches to focus on the separate roles of time and risk preferences individuals maximize kps kreps porteus selden preferences the consumption portfolio problem is decomposed into a one period portfolio problem and a two period certainty consumption saving problem we derive demand restrictions which are necessary and sufficient for portfolio choices and certainty intertemporal consumption to have been generated by maximization respectively of a one period expected utility representation and a certainty representation of time preferences conditions are provided for recovering the building block time and risk preference utilities for the finite data case we derive a set of linear inequalities that are necessary and sufficient for observations to be consistent with the maximization of kps utility

male female earnings differentials in malaysia empirical studies on male female earnings differentials in asian ldcs are few and far between this study finds that differences in productive endowments account for only about 54 per cent of the monthly earnings differential in malaysia the major part of this difference may be attributable to a more favourable occupational distribution among males overall females tend to be concentrated in subordinate occupations and appear to be paid less for similar human capital endowments

strotz meets allais diminishing impatience and the certainty effect abstract decision makers tend to exhibit a higher degree of impatience when considering a delay to an immediate reward than when contemplating an identical delay to an equal future reward this work argues that diminishing impatience originates from the distinction between the certain present and the risky future a simple functional representation of preferences exhibiting time inconsistency when the future is uncertain is derived experimental evidence which is inconsistent with other formulations that account for diminishing impatience supports the proposed approach the new theory uncovers a tight relation between diminishing impatience and well known behavioral regularities in choice under risk and uncertainty jel d12 d81

comment on risk preferences are not time preferences separating risk and time preference andreoni and sprenger 2012a b observe that utility functions are distinct for risk and time preferences and show that their findings are consistent with a preference for certainty we revisit this question in an enriched experimental setting in which subjects make intertemporal decisions under different risk conditions the observed choice behavior supports a separation between risk attitude and intertemporal substitution rather than a preference for certainty we further show that several models including epstein and zin 1989 chew and epstein 1990 and halevy 2008 exhibit such a separation and can account for the overall experimental findings jel c91 d81 d91 risk and time preferences are the cornerstones of economic analyses regarding risk preference expected utility eu has been the predominant theory in which the curvature of the utility index captures risk attitude regarding time preference discounted utility is the most widely used model in which the curvature of the utility index captures intertemporal substitution when risk and time are intertwined integrating the two theories yields discounted expected utility deu which evaluates a contingent consumption plan c c c 3 as follows

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

evaluation of swedish youth labor market programs this paper evaluates two swedish active labour market programmes for youth namely youth practice and labour market training a non parametric matching approach is applied to estimate the average p

poverty traps and nonlinear income dynamics with measurement error and individual heterogeneity theories of poverty traps stand in sharp contrast to the view that anybody can make it through hard work and thrift however empirical detection of poverty traps is complicated by the lack of long panels measurement error and attrition this paper shows how dynamic pseudo panel methods can overcome these difficulties allowing estimation of non linear income dynamics and testing for the presence of poverty traps the paper explicitly allows for individual heterogeneity in income dynamics to account for the possibility that particular groups of individuals may face traps even if the average individual does not these methods are used to examine the evidence for a poverty trap in labor earnings income and expenditure in mexico and are compared to panel data estimates from a short rotating panel the results do find evidence of nonlinearities in household income dynamics and demonstrate large bias in the panel data estimates nevertheless even after allowing for heterogeneity and accounting for measurement error the paper finds no evidence of the existence of a poverty trap for any group in the sample

matching as a tool to decompose wage gaps abstract this paper presents a methodology that uses matching comparisons to explain gender wage differences the approach emphasizes gender differences in the supports of the distributions of observable characteristics and provides insights into the distribution of unexplained gender pay differences this nonparametric alternative to the blinder oaxaca bo decomposition does not require the estimation of earnings equations and divides the gap into four additive elements two of these are analogous to the elements of the bo decomposition but computed only over the common support of the distributions of characteristics while the other two account for differences in the supports

time preference and real investment abstract this paper studies the investment timing problem of an entrepreneur with a non tradable real option with undiversifiable risk we find that the time preference can have a significant impact on the risk attitude toward the idiosyncratic risk which results from the wealth effect on the implied option value if the agent is impatient patient an increase in idiosyncratic volatility increases decreases the agent s value and delays hastens investment this finding suggests several important implications and empirical predictions for investment decisions in private firms and public firms with concentrated ownership

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

time discounting for primary and monetary rewards this paper reports a positive and statistically significant relation between short term discount rates elicited with a monetary and a primary reward chocolate the relation is most evident among people who like chocolate and are hungry this finding suggests that high short term discount rates are related to an underling individual trait consistent with models of presentbiased preferences

women wages and discrimination some evidence from taiwan in 1982 male employees in taiwan earned an average monthly salary of nt 11 008 us 275 women earned under two thirds of this at nt 7 087 this paper examines whether the male female earnings differential in taiwan can be explained by different endowments between the sexes of productivity related characteristics such as education and work experience if men and women are paid according to the same wage structure different endowments will account for all the observed earnings differential any wage gap that remains as a residual after adjustment for endowments can be interpreted as evidence of wage discrimination between the sexes following the work of oaxaca and malkiel and malkiel there is now a large number of american studies that use human capital theory as the basis for decomposing sex specific earnings into an endowment component and a discrimination component estimates also exist for canada and britain 2 house in his calculations for cyprus has provided the first estimates for a developing country 3 a case study for taiwan is particularly interesting not only because of the role of female employment in taiwan s industrial growth but also because the quality of the data makes possible a sharper test of discrimination than most other studies

gender and poverty issues and policies with special reference to asian developing countries abstract recent years saw the outpouring of a theoretical and empirical literature exploring the nexus between gender and poverty in developing countries this paper which provides a critical review of the literature examines the conceptual basis for a gender focused approach to poverty alleviation reviews the relevant empirical studies and data drawn principally but not exclusively from asian developing countries and explores the role of public policies to redress gender disparity the present review argues that the conceptual basis for many gender focused policies is far from well established the empirical foundations of many conventional wisdoms as well as of popular policies remain fragile due to the dearth of reliable gender segregated data and rigorous empirical studies the paper underscores the need for more careful empirical analyses as an input to formulating sound public policy with regard to gender and poverty

the effect of a first child on female labor supply evidence from women seeking fertility services estimating the causal effect of a first child on female labor supply is complicated by the endogeneity of fertility this paper addresses this problem by focusing on a sample of women from the national survey of family growth nsfg who sought help to become pregnant after a certain period only some of these women gave birth results using this strategy show that having a first child younger than one year old reduces female employment by 26 percentage points these estimates are close to ols estimates from census data and to those from ols and fixed effects models on nsfg data

risk aversion in the theory of expected utility with rank dependent probabilities expected utility with rank dependent probability theory is a model of decision making under risk where the preference relations on the set of probability distributions is represented by the mathematical expectation of a utility function with respect to a transformation of the probability distributions on the set of outcomes this paper defines based on g teaux differentiability measures of risk aversion for such preferences which characterize the relation more risk averse and applies these measures to the analysis of unconditional and conditional portfolio choice problems

the effect of separation bonuses on voluntary quits evidence from the military s downsizing this paper analyzes the decision of mid career personnel to voluntarily leave the u s military in response to a financial incentive program a model of the separation decision is tested using data on navy and air force enlisted personnel who were targeted for the buyout in 1992 two alternative estimates are provided one from a fixed effects model and one from a structural annualized cost of leaving model our basic results indicate the financial incentive had a modest effect in inducing additional quits the impact of the separation bonus however was much larger for occupations facing a threat of involuntary layoff

are classical experiments needed for manpower policy the critical element that distinguishes classical experiments from all other modes of analysis is the random assignment of treatment to enrollees in a study this paper examines the major methodological advantages of random assignment for the purpose of estimating the effectiveness of current manpower policy it also reviews the claimed methodological and ethical objections to experiments the main valid objection to an experiment is neither methodological nor ethical it is the experiment s cost in relation to that of nonexperimental methods of analysis the authors argue that the offsetting gain from experimentation is the inherent reliability of experimental estimates of treatment effects the paper offers a simple framework for deciding whether the improved reliability of treatment effect estimates is worth the added cost of experimentation it concludes with an assessment of the actual value of experiments for evaluating current manpower policies

creating a lab in the field economics experiments for policymaking in this paper i focus on the role that artefactual and certain framed field experiments what i term lab like field experiments or lfes play in informing policymaking using examples primarily from rural contexts in developing countries i identify four main purposes of lfes 1 to test theories or heuristic principles 2 to identify and estimate parameters associated with characteristics 3 to explore the structural nature of parameters derived from empirical methods including other types of experiments and 4 to assess methodological difficulties associated with lfes and how these can impact parameter estimates i address the importance of generalizability for lfes that are intended to inform policymaking and in the process emphasize the complementary role between lfes and other empirical methods in particular other experiments finally i discuss nine basic principles for conducting lfes and suggest four directions for future research

on the external validity of laboratory tax compliance experiments i introduction laboratory methods are now widely accepted as a methodological approach in economics and increasingly they have been used to examine specific public policy issues there is much to be gained from careful laboratory experiments they offer a low cost means of testing and replicating policy innovations and they generate precise data on individual behavior thereby allowing estimation of behavioral responses importantly they allow many policy innovations to be introduced singly and exogenously in a controlled environment and as a result laboratory experiments are typically seen as having a high degree of internal validity brewer 2000 campbell and stanley 1966 shadish cook and campbell 2002 because the causal relation between variables can be properly demonstrated however as emphasized by plott 1987 using laboratory experiments can allow more general inferences regarding human behavior only when the setting implemented in the laboratory parallels what is observed in the naturally occurring world even beyond this requirement of parallelism is the need for generalizing behavioral observations from the laboratory to the field or external validity internal validity can be demonstrated through the evaluation of the design however external validity can only be verified empirically and only with respect to the specific setting being investigated this paper investigates the external validity of laboratory experiments and does so in the context of experiments on tax compliance behavior tax evasion is central to many important policy questions current estimates report the tax gap or difference between taxes owed and taxes paid in the united states to be 450 billion annually internal revenue service 2012 beyond these massive revenue losses evasion creates major misallocations in resource use when individuals alter their behavior to cheat on their taxes its presence requires that government expend resources to detect noncompliance to measure its magnitude and to penalize tax evasion evasion alters the distribution of income in arbitrary unpredictable and unfair ways and it may contribute to feelings of unjust treatment and disrespect for the law more broadly it is not possible to understand the true impact of taxation without recognizing the existence and the effects of tax evasion laboratory methods have been used to examine a wide range of policies that may affect the compliance decision policies that have not always proven amenable to either theoretical analyses or empirical analyses with field data however laboratory studies of compliance are sometimes viewed with skepticism the most common criticism is that the student subjects typically used in experiments may not be representative of taxpayers undergraduates may have little experience with filing tax returns and their economic and demographic backgrounds may differ from those of taxpayers another criticism is that the context of laboratory compliance experiments does not closely enough resemble the context in which actual compliance decisions are made as a result there is a concern that experimental results on policy innovations that rely upon student subjects in laboratory compliance experiments cannot be generalized to the population it is this issue that we examine here building on previous research we present several types of evidence on the external validity of experiments on individual compliance decisions a first question examines whether behavior of laboratory participants is replicated by behavior of individuals making a similar decision in the naturally occurring world that is do participants in laboratory experiments exhibit different patterns of behavior than individuals in a similar naturally occurring setting to answer this question we utilize a special data set from the u s internal revenue service irs assembled as part of its national research program nrp

cash or condition evidence from a cash transfer experiment this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled cash or condition evidence from a cash transfer experiment conducted from 2008 to the end of 2009 in malawi the study observed the impact of conditionality in cash transfer programs with two distinct interventions unconditional transfers uct arm and transfers conditional on school attendance cct arm targeted at adolescent girls in malawi on individual level dropout rates declined in both treatment arms however the uct arm is 43 percent as large as the cct arm the fraction of days attended in the cct arm is significantly higher than the uct cognitive ability math and english scores significantly improve for the cct but not for the uct probability of pregnancy and marriage were much lower in the uct arm the delays in marriage and fertility in the uct arm are found entirely among adolescent girls who dropped out of school after the start of the intervention improvements in human capital for the recipients of the cct are achieved at the cost of worse outcomes for people who drop out of school funding for the study derived from the global development network bill and melinda gates foundation national bureau of economic research nber africa project world bank research support budget grant world bank knowledge for change trust fund world development report 2007 small grants fund spanish impact evaluation fund and gender action plan trust fund

bounding causal effects using data from a contaminated natural experiment analysing the effects of teenage childbearing in this paper we consider what can be learned about causal effects when one uses a contaminated instrumental variable in particular we consider what inferences can be made about the causal effect of teenage childbearing on a teen mother s subsequent outcomes when we use the natural experiment of miscarriages to form an instrumental variable for teen births miscarriages might not meet all of the conditions required for an instrumental variable to identify such causal effects for all of the observations in our sample however it is an appropriate instrumental variable for some women namely those pregnant women who experience a random miscarriage although information from typical data sources does not allow one to identify these women we show that one can adapt results from horowitz and manski 1995 on identification with data from contaminated samples to construct informative bounds on the causal effect of teenage childbearing we use these bounds to re examine the effects of early chilbearing on the teen mother s subsequent educational and labour market attainment as considered in hotz mcelroy and sanders 1995a 1995b consistent with their study these bounds indicate that women who have births as teens have higher labour market earnings and hours worked compared to what they would have attained if their childbearing had been delayed

can information about local government performance induce civic participation evidence from the philippines abstract the question of whether people are motivated to engage in civic activities once informed of their local government s performance is relevant to many developing countries that adopted decentralisation applying propensity score matching technique on a unique household level dataset from the philippines it is found that the knowledge of an index of local government performance has positive and statistically significant effects on the likelihood of membership in local organisations and participation in local projects thus the results support policies for greater transparency in local governance to deepen citizenship

the generalized roy model and the cost benefit analysis of social programs the literature on treatment effects focuses on gross benefits from program participation we extend this literature by developing conditions under which it is possible to identify parameters measuring the cost and net surplus from program participation using the generalized roy model we nonparametrically identify the cost benefit and net surplus of selection into treatment without requiring the analyst to have direct information on costs we apply our methodology to estimate the gross benefit and net surplus of attending college

viewpoint empirical evidence and tax policy design lessons from the mirrlees review this paper examines the role of evidence in drawing up the recommendations for tax reform in the mirrlees review the arguments are organised loosely under five related headings i key margins of adjustment ii measurement of effective tax rates iii the importance of information and complexity iv evidence on the size of responses v implications from theory for tax design although the mirrlees review focuses on all aspects of tax reform the focus is this paper is on the taxation of earnings with some examples drawn from the taxation of consumption and savings ce memoire examine le role des resultats dans la confection des recommandations pour la reforme fiscale dans l enquete mirrlees les arguments sont regroupes sous cinq rubriques i les importantes marges d ajustement ii la mesure des taux d imposition effective iii l importance de l information et de la complexite iv constat sur la taille des reponses et v les implications pour la theorie du design des politiques d imposition meme si l enquete mirrlees a examine tous les aspects de la reforme fiscale ce texte met l accent sur l impot sur les remunerations avec quelques exemples portant sur l impot sur la consommation et l epargne

are the poor less well insured evidence on vulnerability to income risk in rural china the authors test how well consumption is insured against income risk in a panel of sampled households in rural china they estimate the risk insurance models by generalized method of moments treating income and household size as endogenous insurance exists for all wealth groups although the hypothesis of perfect insurance is universally rejected those in the poorest wealth decile are the least well insured with 40 percent of an income shock being passed on to current consumption by contrast consumption by the richest third of households is protected from almost 90 percent of an income shock the extent of insurance in a given wealth stratum varies little between poor and nonpoor areas

the impact of conditional cash transfers on consumption and investment in nicaragua abstract this article examines the impact of a nicaraguan conditional cash transfer programme on measures of expenditures and productive investment despite clear evidence from a randomised evaluation that the programme increased current expenditures there is little evidence that it increased agricultural or non agricultural investment an estimated marginal propensity to consume out of the transfers of nearly one combined with no effect of cumulative past transfers on current consumption corroborate the direct evidence on investment in contrast to gains made in human capital investment the potential for long term increases in consumption as a result of other forms of increased investment may be limited

are there lessons for africa from china s success against poverty at the outset of china s reform period the country had a far higher poverty rate than for africa as a whole within five years that was no longer true this paper tries to explain how china escaped from a situation in which extreme poverty persisted due to failed and unpopular policies while acknowledging that africa faces constraints that china did not and that context matters two lessons stand out the first is the importance of productivity growth in smallholder agriculture which will require both market based incentives and public support the second is the role played by strong leadership and a capable public administration at all levels of government

intertemporal tradeoffs for gains and losses an experimental measurement of discounted utility this article provides a parameter free measurement of utility in intertemporal choice and presents new and more robust evidence on the discounting of money outcomes intertemporal utility was concave for gains and convex for losses consistent with a hypothesis put forward by loewenstein and prelec 1992 discount rates declined over time but less so than previously observed under the assumption of linear utility for approximately 40 of our subjects constant discounting provided the best fit the remaining 60 were most consistent with harvey s 1986 power discounting our data provide little support for the popular quasi hyperbolic model which is widely used in economics today we observed an asymmetry in the discounting of gains and losses that unlike earlier findings cannot be explained by a framing effect

estimating time preferences from convex budgets experimentally elicited discount rates are frequently higher than what seems reasonable for economic decision making such high rates are often attributed to present biased discounting a well known bias of standard measurements is the assumption of linear consumption utility attempting to correct this bias using measures of risk aversion to identify concavity researchers find reasonable discounting but at the cost of exceptionally high utility function curvature we present a new methodology for identifying time preferences both discounting and curvature from simple allocation decisions we find reasonable levels of both discounting and curvature and surprisingly dynamically consistent time preferences jel c91 d12 d81 understanding and estimating time preferences is obviously of great importance to economists marketers and policy makers consumers decide how much to invest in savings education real estate and life insurance how much to diet exercise and smoke whether to marry when to have children and what to leave in their wills while there has been substantial research estimating time preferences using aggregate consumption data 1 the bulk of the effort has occurred in laboratory environments 2 among the many laboratory techniques employed recent studies have favored multiple price lists mpl with monetary payments 3 with mpls individuals are asked multiple times to choose between smaller payment amounts closer to the present and larger amounts further into the future the interest rate increases monotonically in a price list such that the point where an individual switches from preferring sooner payments to later payments carries interval

heterogeneous impacts of conditional cash transfers evidence from nicaragua abstract in the last decade the most popular policy tool used to increase human capital in developing countries has been the conditional cash transfer program a large literature has shown significant mean impacts on schooling health and child labor this paper examines heterogeneous effects using random assignment data from the red de proteccion social in rural nicaragua using interactions between the targeting criteria and the treatment indicator estimates suggest that children located in more impoverished localities experienced a larger impact of the program on schooling in 2001 but this finding is reversed in 2002 estimated quantile treatment effects indicate that there is considerable heterogeneity in the impacts of the program on the distribution of food expenditures as well as total expenditures in particular households at the lower end of the expenditure distribution experienced a smaller increase in expenditures this study also presents evidence of the rank invariance assumption to hel

on the relevance and composition of gifts within the firm evidence from field experiments we investigate the economic relevance and the composition of gifts within a firm where output is contractible we develop a structural behavioral model that identifies workers optimal reaction to monetary gifts received from their employer we estimate the model using data from two separate field experiments conducted within a tree planting firm we use the estimated structural parameters to generalize beyond the experiment simulating how workers would react to different gifts on the part of the firm within different labor market settings we find that gifts have a role to play within this firm increasing in importance when the workers outside alternatives deteriorate profit maximizing gifts would increase profits within slack labor markets by up to 10 on average and by up to 17 for certain types of workers

violence and risk preference experimental evidence from afghanistan comment in this comment on callen et al 2014 i revisit recent evidence uncovering a preference for certainty in violation of dominant normative and descriptive theories of decision making under risk i show that the empirical findings are potentially confounded by systematic noise i then develop choice lists that allow me to disentangle these different explanations experimental results obtained with these lists reject explanations based on a preference for certainty in favor of explanations based on random choice from a theoretical point of view the levels of risk aversion detected in the choice list involving certainty can be accounted for by prospect theory through reference dependence activated by salient outcomes

time consistency stationarity and time invariance a sequence of experiments documents static and dynamic preference reversals between sooner smaller and later larger rewards when the sooner reward could be immediate the theoretically motivated design permits separate identification of time consistent stationary a ndtime invariant choices at least half of the subjects are time consistent but only three quarters of them exhibit stationary choices about half of subjects with time inconsistent choices have stationary preferences these results chal lenge the view that present bias preferences are the main source of time inconsistent choices the past twenty years have seen a surge of interest in time inconsistent preferences mostly this has been motivated by psychological experiments and introspection that have suggested the existence of present bias a decision maker prefers smaller immediate reward to a larger delayed reward but when she is asked about her preferences between these two alternatives when both are equally shifted into the future her preferences are reversed although there is no inconsistency per se in her answers this behavior has been taken to suggest that when the decision maker will be asked to update her choices in the future she will generally deviate from her ex ante plans our goal in the present study is to perform a dynamic preference reversal experiment as such one is required to extend the standard framework of pref erences over temporal payments to a dated collection of such preferences this extension allows us to formally define three distinct properties stationarity im plies that ranking of temporal payments depends only on the time distance and payment distance between the alternatives time invariance assumes that the decision maker evaluates each temporal payment relative to the evaluation pe

risk preferences are not time preferences risk and time are intertwined the present is known while the future is inherently risky this is problematic when studying time prefer ences since uncontrolled risk can generate apparently present biased behavior we systematically manipulate risk in an intertemporal choice experiment discounted expected utility performs well with risk but when certainty is added common ratio predictions fail sharply the data cannot be explained by prospect theory hyperbolic discounting or preferences for resolution of uncertainty but seem consistent with a direct preference for certainty the data suggest strongly a difference between risk and time preferences jel c91 d81 d91 understanding individual decision making under risk and over time are two foundations of economic analysis 1 in both areas there has been research to suggest that standard models of expected utility eu and exponential discounting are flawed or incomplete regarding time experimental research has uncovered evidence of a present bias or hyperbolic discounting frederick loewenstein and o donoghue 2002 regarding risk there are number of well documented departures from eu such as the allais 1953 common consequence and common ratio paradoxes an organizing principle behind expected utility violations is that they seem to arise as so called boundary effects where certainty and uncertainty are combined camerer 1992 harless and camerer 1994 and starmer 2000 indicate that violations of expected utility are notably less prevalent when all choices are uncertain this observation is especially interesting when considering decisions about risk taking over time in particular certainty and uncertainty are combined in intertemporal decisions the present is known and certain while the future is inherently risky this observation is problematic if one intends to study time preference in isolation from

a reassessment of the effect of income maintenance on marital dissolution in the seattle denver experiment cain and wissoker claim that income maintenance treatment had no effect on marital dissolution in the seattle denver income maintenance experiment yet parametric and nonparametric analyses reveal that there was a significant increase in the dissolution rate for blacks and whites but not chicanos this conclusion holds for many different specifications including a number that allow free form time variation in response while cain and wissoker s analyses and results differ in many ways from that of groeneveld hannan and tuma consideration of the full set of estimates including both main effects and interaction effects and analyses of the complete samples reveal that their analyses agree that the income maintenance treatment increased rates of marital dissolution for blacks and whites

substitution and dropout bias in social experiments a study of an influential social experiment this paper considers the interpretation of evidence from social experiments when persons randomized out of a program being evaluated have good substitutes for it and when persons randomized into a program drop out to pursue better alternatives using data from an experimental evaluation of a classroom training program we document the empirical importance of control group substitution and treatment group dropping out evidence that one program is ineffective relative to close substitutes is not evidence that the type of service provided by all of the programs is ineffective although that is the way experimental evidence is often interpreted

risk preferences are not time preferences reply can the well known experimental phenomenon of present bias in intertemporal choice be confounded with the risks associated with receiving payment can measurements of risk preferences be used to represent desires for smoothness in intertemporal payments in our two 2012 papers in this journal we explored these two questions and found the answer to the first to be yes and the second to be no we feel the three papers inspired by our work and published here underscore these arguments and point to interesting new possibilities for modeling and measuring risk over time jel c91 d81 d91

using experiments to evaluate performance standards what do welfare to work demonstrations reveal to welfare reformers this paper examines how experimental demonstrations can be used to inform planners about the efficacy of social programs in light of a performance standard the problem is illustrated by considering the situation faced by state governments attempting to design programs to meet the new federal welfare to work standards data from experimental evaluations alone allow only limited inferences about the labor market outcomes of welfare recipients combined with prior information on the selection process however these data are informative suggesting either that the long run federal requirements cannot be met or that these standards will only be met under special circumstances