dynamic conjectural variations in a lanchester oligopoly an approach based on dynamic conjectural variations is advanced for developing dynamic advertising strategies in a lanchester oligopoly differential game the approach allows competitors to anticipate rival reactions to market share state variables and maintains the computational advantage of open loop nash equilibrium strategies in an empirical application to the ready to eat cereal industry it is shown that advertising strategies based on dynamic conjectural variations can better explain the advertising of the cereal competitors than can open loop advertising strategies

advertising random sales response and brand competition some theoretical and econometric implications this paper examines implications for the firm s advertising decisions under conditions of random sales response to advertising within the context of multibrand competition the competitive environment assumed is characterized not only by interactions among different companies within a given industry but also by inter actions among different brands produced by a single company a theoretical model is first formulated to examine the effect of uncertainty in the sales advertising relations and that of the firm s attitude toward risk on its advertising the theoretical results are then assessed by estimating an econometric model using the cigarette data copyright 1987 by the university of chicago

dynamic competition valuation and merger activity we model the interactions between product market competition and investment valuation within a dynamic oligopoly to our knowledge the model is the first continuous time corporate finance model in a multiple firm setting with heterogeneous products the model is tractable and amenable to estimation we use it to relate current industry characteristics with firm value and financial decisions unlike most corporate finance models it produces predictions regarding parameter magnitudes as well their signs estimates of the model s parameters indicate strong linkages between model implied and actual values the paper uses the estimated parameters to predict rivals returns near merger announcements

the hedge ratio and the empirical relationship between the stock and futures markets a new approach using wavelet analysis this paper examines the relationship between the stock and futures markets in terms of lead lag relationship correlation and the hedge ratio using wavelet analysis empirical results show that 1 there is a feedback relationship between the stock and futures markets regardless of time scales 2 wavelet correlation between two markets varies over investment horizons but remains very high and 3 hedge ratio and the effectiveness of hedging strategies increase as the wavelet time scale increases simulation for utility comparisons shows that hedging effectiveness depends not only on the time scale but also on the risk aversion coefficient of an individual investor

closed loop advertising strategies in a duopoly using the lanchester model to describe the dynamics of the market where two firms compete for customers by advertising we solve the problem of determining an optimal advertising strategy for maximum discounted profits we develop both open and closed loop strategies and explain the relationship between them using a new mathematical approach we prove that our closed loop solution is a global nash equilibrium the closed loop strategy is time variant and depends linearly on the actual market share the time variant coefficient incorporates the discount factor its computation requires the solution of a backward differential equation and a set of two nonlinear differential equations for an initial value problem the closed loop advertising expenditures are proportional to the open loop advertising expenditures and to the square of the competitor s actual market share this provides a very practical adaptive control rule that allows the manager to adjust the actual advertising expenditure and to deviate f

controlling measurement errors in models of advertising competition abstract commercial market research firms provide information on advertising variables of interest such as brand awareness or gross rating points that are likely to contain measurement errors this unreliability of measured variables induces bias in the estimated parameters of dynamic models of advertising consequently advertisers either under or overspend on advertising to maintain a desired level of brand awareness monte carlo studies show that the magnitude of bias can be serious when conventional estimation methods such as ordinary least squares and errors in variables are employed to obtain parameter estimates therefore the authors have developed two new approaches that either reduce or eliminate parameter bias using these methods advertisers can determine an unbiased optimal advertising budget even if advertising variables are measured with error the application of these methods to estimate the extent of measurement noise in empirical advertising data is illustrated

de noising option prices with the wavelet method financial time series are known to carry noise hence techniques to de noise such data deserve great attention wavelet analysis is widely used in science and engineering to de noise data in this paper we show through the use of monte carlo simulations the power of the wavelet method in the de noising of option price data we also find that the estimation of risk neutral density functions and out of sample price forecasting is significantly improved after noise is removed using the wavelet method

optimal strategies for general price quality decision models of new products with learning production costs abstract the question of product quality permeates every level of business and is becoming crucial for the survival of modern manufacturing firms in automotive and high tech industries in this paper we deal with the optimal price and quality policies for the introduction of a new product on the supply side the firm wants to determine the unit price and quality level over time given that unit cost declines along a learning curve and increases if quality is made greater on the demand side dynamic demand is related to price and quality as well as to cumulative sales which represent diffusion and saturation effects we will model this problem in a general framework that includes several previous results as special cases by applying the maximum principle we will derive the optimal price and quality policies and discover the interactions between these two major strategic marketing instruments and the diffusion process several fundamental theoretical results will be established for the model under certain specified conditions higher prices do imply higher quality and under other conditions the optimal price declines over time while the product quality improves to illustrate these results the theoretical results are applied to two specific cases the first one is a simple nonseparable demand growth function in price and quality the other is a separable demand function of price and quality

dynamic promotional budgeting and media allocation this paper address the managerial problem of promotional budgeting and media allocation in a dynamic competitive framework we develop an extended lanchester model that is able to analyze multi instrument promotion in an oligopoly the competitors each with a different initial position as well as economic value of the market share and communication effectiveness adopt the strategy of maximizing their net present value of discounted profits taking the other players actions into account the resulting differential game is solved using a novel method providing both the open loop strategy and the closed loop strategy for each firm we prove that our solution is a global nash equilibrium we develop a simple formula that when applied to an open loop strategy readily generates a feedback strategy we also show that for both open and closed loop strategies the proportion of the budget allocated to each instrument is invariant with time and depends only on instrument effectiveness we illustrate the results and provide several managerial rules and discuss their application in practice finally we show that our model favorably compares with other model in the literature in explaining actual data

pricing and trading european options by combining artificial neural networks and parametric models with implied parameters we compare the ability of the parametric black and scholes corrado and su models and artificial neural networks to price european call options on the s p 500 using daily data for the period january 1998 to august 2001 we use several historical and implied parameter measures beyond the standard neural networks in our analysis we include hybrid networks that incorporate information from the parametric models our results are significant and differ from previous literature we show that the black and scholes based hybrid artificial neural network models outperform the standard neural networks and the parametric ones we also investigate the economic significance of the best models using trading strategies extended with the chen and johnson modified hedging approach we find that there exist profitable opportunities even in the presence of transaction costs

dynamic advertising and pricing in an oligopology a nash equilibrium approach a general dynamic oligopolistic price advertising model is formulated and open loop nash solutions are derived as a main result a generalisation of the well known dorfman steiner theorem to heterogenous oligopoly markets is presented furthermore a detailed discussion of long run equilibrium solutions is given for an important special case of the general model formulation it is shown that the optimal advertising policies are constant over time and constitute degenerated feedback solutions

public private sector wage differentials in canada evidence from quantile regressions abstract quantile regressions are used to estimate the size of the public sector wage premium in canada we find that public sector rent payments tend to be highest for federal government employees females and individuals at the lower tail of the wage distribution

swimming upstream floating downstream comparing women s relative wage progress in the united states and denmark applying a new decomposition method to u s psid and danish longitudinal sample data the authors compare how u s and danish gender wage gaps developed between 1983 and 1995 in denmark they find the wage gap widened because the worsening in women s relative returns to observable human capital attributes as well as in their ranking relative to men in unobserv able productive attributes more than offset their wage gains from improved observable qualifications relative to men s in the united states in contrast the gender convergence in qualifications offset adverse influences including in creasing wage dispersion throughout the labor market to result in a narrowing of the gap the largest increase in the gap in denmark was experienced by women in the top earnings decile and the largest decline in the gap in the united states affected those at the top and in the middle of the distribution

implied volatility functions empirical tests derman and kani 1994 dupire 1994 and rubinstein 1994 hypothesize that asset return volatility is a deterministic function of asset price and time and develop a deterministic volatility function dvf option valuation model that has the potential of fitting the observed cross section of option prices exactly using s p 500 options from june 1988 through december 1993 we examine the predictive and hedging performance of the dvf option valuation model and find it is no better than an ad hoc procedure that merely smooths black scholes 1973 implied volatilities across exercise prices and times to expiration

a differential game model of a market of substitutable products abstract modern industrial organization often classifies groups of differentiated products that are fairly good substitutes to belong to the same market this paper develops a differential game model of a market of substitutable products to avoid the problem of time inconsistency we solve a feedback nash equilibrium solution for the game a set of state dependent equilibrium strategies is derived extensions of the model to a stochastic formulation and to an infinite time horizon specification are also provided

modeling asymmetric competition the effects of the marketing actions of one brand can be distributed among its competitors market shares in a complex manner this paper presents and illustrates methods for modeling brand competition and brand strategies in markets where competitive effects can be differentially and asymmetrically distributed we discuss the empirical specification parameter estimation and competitive strategy implications of the models proposed price and advertising competition among eleven brands of an australian household product is used to illustrate the application of these procedures

investigating the sensitivity of equilibrium profits to advertising dynamics and competitive effects the author investigates the validity of the flat maximum principle the insensitivity of a firm s profits to changes in its optimal advertising level in a duopolistic market in which advertising by the two firms has carryover effects two alternative competitive scenarios are examined i in which total industry sales are allowed to vary over time and ii where firms are engaged in market share rivalry for i the open loop nash equilibrium advertising strategies for the firms are derived assuming a specific sales response function and an infinite time horizon a numerical analysis of the sensitivity of firms profit functions to advertising expenditures is performed at different levels of the a discount rate b advertising elasticity and c advertising decay rate an empirical illustration from the pharmaceutical industry is provided special cases of the model formulation are examined analytically in order to highlight the intuition behind the flatness of the maximum and to study the sensitivity of results obtained to choice of equilibrium strategy closed loop vs open loop for the market share game closed loop policies are considered and the flat maximum principle is illustrated in the context of coke pepsi rivalry in the soft drinks market

endogeneity and simultaneity in competitive pricing and advertising a logit demand analysis in this article we use four data sets to provide a benchmark study of the effects of accounting for endogeneity and simultaneity in estimating marketing mix effects in a logit demand framework we compare the results obtained from accounting for endogeneity only to those from accounting for both endogeneity and simultaneity and in the latter case we allow for more general models of firm behavior to examine the consequences of imposing assumptions about the behavior of firms we find that accounting for both endogeneity and simultaneity not only affects the parameter estimates but also results in efficiency gains that affect the statistical significance of the estimates

on modeling the advertising operations interface under asymmetric competition abstract using a market share attraction structure of advertising competition and following a supermodular game approach this article demonstrates for an asymmetric oligopoly the directional impact of changes in model parameters on the marketing controlled variables of all rivals advertising budgets and the operations controlled variables of all rivals ordered quantities importantly the various changes are examined analytically empirically and numerically in both non dominated and dominated asymmetric oligopolies in this regard the results indicate that firms in a dominated oligopoly one firm of market share larger than or equal to 50 behave differently compared to firms in a non dominated oligopoly each firm of market share less than 50 in response to changes in model parameters furthermore changes in model parameters are investigated in terms of their relative influential impact on a variety of equilibrium measures in this regard the findings indicate that for the analyzed model the marketing parameters exert much more influence on the equilibrium measures than the operations parameters additionally a change in the mode of competition from non cooperation oligopoly to cooperation joint ownership dictates that strong asymmetric firms of favorable marketing and operations parameters continue advertising but at lower levels and weak asymmetric firms of less favorable parameters cease advertising altogether

rates of return to degrees across british regions o leary n c and sloane p j rates of return to degrees across british regions regional studies earlier papers have found considerable heterogeneity in the returns to degrees in relation to subjects of study degree classification and higher education institution this paper examines heterogeneity of returns across british regions using the labour force survey it finds substantial regional variations in the financial rewards available to graduates with much higher returns in london and the south east than elsewhere adjusting for regional differences in the cost of living narrows such differences considerably decompositional analysis suggests that coefficient effects dominate composition effects consistent with agglomeration and productivity spillover effects being important o leary n c et sloane p j le taux de rendement des diplomes universitaires a travers les regions de la grande bretagne regional studies des articles anterieures ont trouve que le rendement des diplomes universitaires pa

differential game models in management science abstract this paper reviews a number of differential games applications to management science and operations research problems published with a few exceptions during the last decade the purpose of the article is to provide the reader with an up to date account of the state of the art within this field after having stated in an introduction the general differential games framework as well as some conceptual problems we proceed to review the models which have been divided into the following functional areas investment consumption and employment production inventories and maintenance marketing advertising pricing and rd bargaining natural resources and pollution the survey concludes with some remarks on applicability solvability and directions for future research

optimal pricing and advertising in a durable good duopoly abstract this paper analyzes dynamic advertising and pricing policies in a durable good duopoly the proposed infinite horizon model while general enough to capture dynamic price and advertising interactions in a competitive setting also permits closed form solutions we use differential game theory to analyze two different demand specifications linear demand and isoelastic demand for symmetric and asymmetric competitors we find that the optimal price is constant and does not vary with cumulative sales while the optimal advertising is decreasing with cumulative sales comparative statics for the results are presented

what has 20 years of public private pay gap literature told us eastern european transitioning vs developed economies this paper surveys the literature on public private sector pay differentials based on 20 years of research in transitioning countries of eastern europe ee and compares the results with estimates obtained from developed market economies the majority of empirical studies from ee economies found evidence of public sector pay penalties during the period of economic transition from a communist to market based economy in developed economies however the average differential is usually around zero or positive the public sector pay inequality reducing effect relative to the private sector is greater in transitioning economies than in developed economies nevertheless there is evidence that the sign of the public sector pay gap as well as the relative public sector pay distribution change with the progress of economic transition towards those usually observed in developed economies different pay setting arrangements between private and public sectors and competition for workers seem to be major arguments for the existence of systematic pay differences between the two sectors

a duopolistic model of dynamic competitive advertising abstract this paper proposes a differential game model of competitive advertising decisions for non durable products by extending the lanchester model and the deal model of competitive advertising in the literature the proposed model is compared empirically with the lanchester model for model fitting and forecast accuracy it is shown that the model is suitable for an actual market and out performs the lanchester model in forecast accuracy the model provides a sensible modeling alternative to the lanchester model for the study of dynamic competitive advertising decisions necessary and sufficient conditions for open loop and closed loop nash equilibrium solutions to the model are discussed a numerical algorithm for open loop and closed loop nash strategies to the model is developed

the public private sector gender wage differential in britain evidence from matched employee workplace data this article shows that little of the gender earnings gap in the public and private sectors in britain are explained by differences in employee characteristics the differences in workplace characteristics however make a significant sizeable contribution it is shown that performance related pay and company pension schemes are associated with higher relative earnings in the private sector whilst increased provision of family friendly employment practices in the public sector is associated with higher relative earnings for women

advertising competition in a dynamic oligopoly with multiple brands a model is developed that allows the derivation of feedback nash equilibrium advertising strategies for oligopolistic competitors the model is an extension of a modified vidale wolfe model that incorporates multiple brands per competitor the resulting expressions of feedback advertising strategies are combined with those for sales dynamics in an empirical model that is applied to the carbonated soft drink market which involves three primary competitors and five primary brands the research provides the following contributions a modification of the vidale wolfe model is extended to allow dynamic analysis of an oligopoly in which the competitors each offer multiple brands the model extension permits the derivation of a feedback nash equilibrium the determination of a feedback nash equilibrium enhances empirical analysis by allowing an expanded empirical model that includes the explicit modeling of endogenous advertising along with demand relationships

dynamic model of fresh fruit promotion a household production approach many studies consider the dynamic effects of commodity promotion on demand but few derive the theoretical basis for these effects in a model of optimal consumer behavior this study develops a dynamic household production model of u s fresh fruit consumption which it uses to evaluate the effectiveness of advertising and promotion expenditures by the washington apple commission estimates from a dynamic dual generalized leontief system show direct advertising to be marginally more effective than retail promotion in increasing apple sales but advertising has positive spillover effects to sales of other fruits whereas promotion reduces sales of competing products

using game theory to model competition the article is an exposition of the basic concepts of noncooperative game theory and their application to advertising product and price competition

manufacturer retailer channel interactions and implications for channel power an empirical investigation of pricing in a local market the issue of power in the marketing channels for consumer products has received considerable attention in both academic and practitioner journals as well as in the popular press our objective in this paper is to provide an empirical method to measure the power of channel members and to understand the reasons demand factors cost factors nature of channel interactions for this power we confine our analysis to pricing power in channels we use methods from the game theory literature in marketing on channel interactions to obtain the theoretical framework for our empirical model this literature provides us a definition of power one that is based on the proportion or percentage of channel profits that accrue to each of the channel members there can be a variety of possible channel interactions between manufacturers and retailers in channels the theoretical literature has examined some of these games for example choi 1991 examines how channel profits for manufacturers and retailer vary if channel interactions are either vertical nash or if they are stackelberg leaderfollower with either the manufacturer or the retailer being the price leader each of these three channel interaction games has different implications for profits made by manufacturers and retailers and consequently for the relative power of the channel members in contrast to the previous literature that has focused largely on the above three channel interaction games our model extends the game theoretic literature by allowing for a continuum of possible channel interactions between manufacturers and a retailer furthermore for a given product market we empirically estimate from the data where the channel interactions lie in this continuum more critically we obtain measures of how channel profits are divided between manufacturers and the retailer in the product market where a higher share of channel profit is associated with higher channel power we then examine how channel power is related to demand conditions facing various brands and cost parameters of various manufacturers in going from game theory based theoretical models of channel interactions to empirical estimation we use the new empirical industrial organization framework bresnahan 1988 as part of this structural modeling framework we build retail level demand functions for the various brands manufacturer and private label in a given product category given these demand functions we obtain optimal pricing rules for manufacturers and the retailer in determining their optimal prices manufacturers and the retailer account for how all the players in the channel choose their optimal prices that is we account for dependencies in decision making across channel members these dependencies are characterized by a set of conduct parameters which are estimated from market data the conduct parameters enable us to identify the nature of channel interactions between manufacturers and the retailer along the continuum mentioned previously in addition to the demand and conduct parameters manufacturers marginal costs are also estimated in the model these marginal cost estimates along with the manufacturer prices and retail prices available in our dataset enable us to compute the division of channel profits among the channel members hence we are able to obtain insights into who has pricing power in the channel in the empirical application of the model we analyze a local market for two product categories refrigerated juice and tuna in both categories there are three major brands the difference between them is that the private label has an insignificant market share in the tuna category our main empirical results show that the usual games examined in the marketing literature do not hold for the given data we also nd that the retailer s market power is very significant in both these product categories and that the estimated demand and cost parameters are consistent with the estimated pattern of conduct between the manufacturers and the retailer given the evidence from the trade press of intense manufacturer competition in these categories as well as the commodity nature of these products the result of retailer power appears intuitive

option pricing with mean reversion and stochastic volatility many underlying assets of option contracts such as currencies commodities energy temperature and even some stocks exhibit both mean reversion and stochastic volatility this paper investigates the valuation of options when the underlying asset follows a mean reverting lognormal process with stochastic volatility a closed form solution is derived for european options by means of fourier transform the proposed model allows the option pricing formula to capture both the term structure of futures prices and the market implied volatility smile within a unified framework a bivariate trinomial lattice approach is introduced to value path dependent options with the proposed model numerical examples using european options american options and barrier options demonstrate the use of the model and the quality of the numerical scheme

on the generalizability of advertising pulsation monopoly results to an oligopoly this paper introduces for the first time an analytical framework for modeling and analyzing sales response to advertising pulsation for competitive markets of mature products in continuous time for discrete piecewise policies that allow unequal cycle lengths employing a nash equilibrium solution concept this study supported with numerical analysis demonstrates that there is an oligopolistic as opposed to a monopolistic justification for advertising at a constant rate in the presence of concave response functions or advertising according to a pulsing policy in the presence of s shaped response functions the article employs a modeling framework whereby each of a set of competitors responses to advertising spending is governed mainly by lanchester type response is used to analyze the game resulting from cyclical advertising policies that are strictly adhered to by all players a non discounted averaged performance is used to assess the purported optimality of different variants of piecewise constant policies

pricing strategies in a dynamic duopoly a differential game model we formulate a differential game model for dynamic pricing in a duopolistic market firms demand functions are derived from utility maximizing behavior of consumers with the demand for a brand given by the logit model preferences for brands are assumed to evolve over time in the market in a manner akin to learning models postulated in the marketing literature we derive the differential equations governing the equilibrium open loop price paths over time and show that in steady state the brand with the higher preference level charges the higher price the formulation is extended to include the effects of consumer heterogeneity and equilibrium steady state prices are compared with those obtained when heterogeneity is ignored a comparison of steady state dynamic prices with myopic prices is provided an empirical example is discussed to show how steady state model predictions may be obtained from actual longitudinal purchase data

a theory of dynamic oligopoly iii cournot competition abstract we study the markov perfect equilibrium mpe of an alternating move infinite horizon duopoly model where the strategic variable is quantity we exhibit a pair of difference differential equations that when they exist differentiable mpe strategies satisfy for quadratic payoff functions we solve these equations in closed form and demonstrate that the mpe corresponding to the solution is the limit of the finite horizon equilibrium as the horizon tends to infinity we conclude with a discussion of adjustment costs and endogenization of the timing

competitive advertising strategies and market size dynamics a research note on theory and evidence this paper analyzes competing firms advertising strategies in markets characterized by dynamic market sizes for new product innovations a large literature has been developed on the basis of the celebrated bass diffusion process which captures what we call market size dynamics however in spite of the significant literature incorporating competitiveness into the bass model few if any analytical results have been obtained especially those with normative implications on the other hand important theoretical and empirical insights have recently been obtained using the famous lanchester warfare model of competition in which market share dynamics are governed by advertising activities for mature products whose market sizes are typically fixed or stable our paper seeks to address the issue of optimal advertising strategies incorporating both market share dynamics and market size dynamics in doing so we seek to take advantage of the theoretical and normative insights currently available in the lanchester formulation for mature products to obtain normative analytical results on competitive advertising strategies for new product innovations whose markets evolve around the bass process we first obtain analytical solutions to the problem at hand and offer theoretical implications for competitive advertising on the bass diffusion model the models parameters are then estimated using a set of data on sales and advertising expenditures of polaroid corp and eastman kodak co in instant photography during the 19761985 period optimal trajectories for the firms advertising spending are then calculated and other marketing and managerial implications of optimal advertising strategies are explored

a model of advertising competition using a dynamic model of advertising rivalry between competitors in a duopoly the author obtains analytical results for the case of pure market share rivalry in a mature market a more general mod

the gender wage gap a comparison of australia and canada using data from the 1989 canadian labour market activity survey and for australia the 1989 90 income distribution survey the authors investigate the reasons for the significantly lower gender wage gap in australia than in canada key similarities and differences between these two countries the authors argue make them a good basis for a natural experiment to investigate the effects of different labor market institutions in particular australia has a stronger union movement and a greater degree of centralization in wage determination than canada and most of its workers are covered by legally binding minimum working conditions the authors conclude that several differences between the countries in labor market structure notably a lower rate of return to education a lower rate of return to labor market experience and a lower level of wage inequality in australia than in canada are largely responsible for the smaller gender wage gap in australia

wage structure and gender earnings differentials an international comparison using microdata to analyse the gender pay gap in ten industrialized nations we focus on the role of wage structure the prices of labour market skills in influencing the gender gap we find wage structure enormously important in explaining why the us gender gap is higher than that in most other countries we conclude that the us gap would be similar to that in sweden and australia the countries with the smallest gaps if the united states had their levels of wage inequality this finding reflects the larger penalty in the united states for those with low skill levels or employed in low wage sectors 650 o 75 the united states was amoung the countries with the largest differ entials oecd ilo usbls this paper uses microdata to analyse inter national differences in the gender pay gap among a sample of ten industrialized nations we focus particularly on explaining the surprisingly low ranking of the united states in comparison with other industrialized countries an advan tage of an international perspective is that countries vary considerably with respect to governmental policies women s relative labour market qualifications and wage setting institutions such variability allows one to infer reasons for differences in the pay gap and by implication the impact of alternative govern ment policies empirical research on gender pay gaps has traditionally focused on the role of gender differences in qualifications and on differences in the treatment of otherwise equally qualified male and female workers i e labour market dis crimination analyses of trends over time in the gender differential within countries as well as inter country comparisons of gender earnings ratios have tended to emphasize these types of gender specific factors an innovative feature of our study is to focus on the role of wage structure as an additional factor influencing the gender gap to analyse the impact of wage structure we adapt a framework developed by juhn et al 1991 to analyse trends over time in race differentials in the united states our findings suggest that labour market institutions that affect overall wage inequality have an extremely impor tant effect on the gender earnings gap wage structure describes the array of prices set for various labour market skills measured and unmeasured and rents received for employment in par

are low skill public sector workers really overpaid a quasi differenced panel data analysis public private sectoral wage differentials have been studied extensively using quantile regression techniques these typically find large public sector premiums at the bottom of the wage distribution this may imply that low skill workers are overpaid prompting concerns over efficiency we note several other potential explanations for this result and explicitly test whether the premium varies with skill using australian data we use a quasi differenced generalized method of moments gmm panel data model which has not been previously applied to this topic internationally unlike other available methods this technique identifies sectoral differences in returns to unobserved skill it also facilitates a decomposition of the wage gap into components explained by differences in returns to all observed and unobserved skills and by differences in their stock we find no evidence to suggest that the premium varies with skill one interpretation is that the compressed wage profile of the public sector ind

analytical models of competition with implications for marketing issues findings and outlook the authors review a representative cross section of analytical models of competition using a framework for competitive analysis developed from a marketing perspective models are classified by the

advertising strategies in a dynamic oligopoly the author uses a dynamic model of oligopolistic advertising competition in which competitors are assumed to make a series of single period advertising decisions with salvage values attached to achieved sales in each period as the foundation for empirical analysis of the competitive situation involving the three largest ready to eat cereal manufacturers kellogg general mills and the post division of philip morris general foods the primary insight of the author s empirical analysis is that general mills places a higher future value on achieved sales than do the other competitors in the market

investigating dynamic multifirm market interactions in price and advertising diagnosing the nature and magnitu de of competitive interactions among firms is important for developing effective marketing strategies in this paper we formulate a game theoretic model of firm interaction to analyze the dynamic price and advertising competition among firms in a given p roduct market firm or brand level demand functions account for the contemporaneous and carry over effects of these marketing activities and also allow for the effects of competitor actions firms take into consideration the actions of their rivals as well as their own demand and cost functions both production and advertising when determining the profit maximizing price and advertising levels our formulation enables us to quantify not only the direction and magnitude of competitive reactions but also to identify the underlying form of market conduct that generates the particular pattern of interaction we specify and estimate a fully structural econometric model for three firms constituting a distinct sub market within a personal care product category we estimate the demand and competitive interaction parameters as well as the production and advertising cost functions for each firm we then derive implications for competitive interactions and market structure interestingly we find that while firms seem to compete on advertising they price cooperatively thereby enhancing their price cost margins

wavelet based option pricing an empirical study abstract in this paper we scrutinize the empirical performance of a wavelet based option pricing model which leverages the powerful computational capability of wavelets in approximating risk neutral moment generating functions we focus on the forecasting and hedging performance of the model in comparison with that of popular alternative models including the stochastic volatility model with jumps the practitioner black scholes model and the neural network based model using daily index options written on the german dax 30 index from january 2009 to december 2012 our results suggest that the wavelet based model compares favorably with all other models except the neural network based one especially for long term options hence our novel wavelet based option pricing model provides an excellent nonparametric alternative for valuing option prices

differential game models of advertising competition abstract differential game methodology combines two attractive features that are critical to the study of advertising competition dynamics and multi competitor decision making a focused review of two decades of differential game modeling of advertising competition indicates that insights gained to date while valuable are of a limited nature and research in the area needs to extend beyond present limits four recent studies are offered as examples of possible directions to follow in continued research

a note on feedback sequential equilibria in a lanchester model with empirical application we study in this paper dynamic equilibrium advertising strategies in a duopoly with asymmetric information structure and sequential play the advertising model of lanchester is used in a game where the relevant solution concept is feedback stackelberg equilibrium which is subgame perfect an algorithm is devised for the computation of this equilibrium and numerical results are reported and discussed using a data set from the cola market we obtain the resulting advertising strategies and provide a comparison with closed loop and open loop nash equilibria

revealing the implied risk neutral mgf from options the wavelet method options are believed to contain unique information on the risk neutral moment generating function mgf or the risk neutral probability density function pdf of the underlying asset this paper applies the wavelet method to approximate the implied risk neutral mgf from option prices monte carlo simulations are carried out to show how the risk neutral mgf can be obtained using the wavelet method with the black scholes model as the benchmark we offer a novel method to reveal the implied mgf and to price in sample options and forecast out of sample option prices with the estimated mgf

optimal management of fringe entry over time abstract in this paper we investigate the problem of a dominant company facing entry of a competitive fringe smaller competitor or fringe of smaller competitors we seek to identify pricing and advertising or other promotional strategies that maximize long term profits for the dominant firm under possible reactions of the competitive fringe two main situations are considered the firms in the fringe are price takers but they advertise the firms in the fringe are not price takers and advertise the possibility of a passive reaction in the case of a very small fringe is considered as a particular case we assume that the rate of change of fringe sales is dynamically related to the current sales price and advertising efforts of both the dominant firm and the fringe the higher the dominant firm price the faster fringe entry the higher dominant firm advertising effort the slower fringe entry fringe advertising and pricing may counterbalance these effects formulating a dynamic game with the dominant firm as a leader and the fringe as a follower we present a new methodology for providing time invariant feedback stackelberg equilibrium the methodology relies on finding the relationship between the co state variables and the state variable the equilibrium solution is obtained in an implicit form by solving a set of two backward differential equations to show the applicability of our solution to real situations we use data from the u s long distance market and find optimal decision rules for at t facing the entry of mci and sprint during the 1980 1990 period the feedback equilibrium indicates that while at t s price is decreasing when fringe mci and sprint sales increase the fringe price is increasing at t s advertising is increasing with fringe sales while the fringe s advertising increases and then decreases the comparison with actual behavior indicates that at t has adhered closer to the optimal solution in both price and advertising than the fringe

an empirical analysis of dynamic nonprice competition in an oligopolistic industry this article develops a dynamic model of nonprice competition in an oligopolistic industry and uses it to analyze advertising competition in the u s cigarette industry the model generalizes existing studies by allowing advertising to affect both firm market shares and the total size of the market the model also allows dynamic conjectural variations to arise from the intertemporal links created by the durability of advertising we use these dynamic conjectural variations to distinguish alternative models of competitive interaction we estimate the complete model of firm production demand and advertising choice by using data for u s cigarette producers the results indicate that firm advertising primarily affects the level of market demand with a firm s effect on rival firms market shares arising through variations in the number of brands sold empirical results on firm behavior suggest that firms act as if their advertising choices will alter the future advertising choices of rival firms in both the high tar and low tar cigarette markets

on the robustness and strategic implications of a parsimonious advertising inventory competitive model with extensions to pricing competition abstract using a market share attraction structure of advertising competition this research introduces first a parsimonious inventory advertising model for which competition is limited to two symmetric firms thus obtaining its related comparative statics following a supermodular game approach the derived comparative statics remain robust upon considering non dominant firms each with a market share of less than 50 competing in an asymmetric oligopoly of n rivals where each firm controls the inventory advertising decision variables furthermore changes in model parameters are investigated in terms of their relative impact on equilibrium measures in this regard the findings indicate that for the analyzed model the marketing parameters possess much more influence on the equilibrium measures than the operations parameters the generalization appears applicable to both non dominated oligopolies as well as dominated oligopolies where one firm has a market share equal to or greater than 50 where each firm controls the inventory advertising decision variables in addition to price however changes in shift parameters elicit a response from the dominant firm which will differ from its non dominant rivals for products and services additionally while the literature shows that the non dominant firm will pursue a defensive strategy of decreasing both the equilibrium price and the amount of equilibrium advertising in response to competitive entry our findings show that results for a fixed market potential may not continue to be robust once inclusion of the operations variables of order quantity are considered finally the study explores the implications of the free entry equilibrium for which the number of firms in the industry is determined endogenously

an oligopoly model of dynamic advertising competition abstract an oligopoly model is presented that allows the determination of feedback nash equilibrium advertising strategies for an oligopoly analyses of symmetric and asymmetric oligopolies with the model show that unit contribution and advertising effectiveness have positive effects on a competitor s own advertising and steady state sales while discount rate and decay rate have negative effects an asymmetric analysis further shows that unit contribution and advertising effectiveness affect positively and discount rate and decay rate negatively a competitor s rivals advertising but have effects in opposite directions regarding rivals steady state sales the symmetric and asymmetric analyses also show that steady state sales per competitor decline with the number of competitors in the oligopoly while total oligopoly steady state sales increase the model is applied empirically to the triopolistic competition involving anheuser busch sabmiller and molson coors in the beer industry

vix derivatives hedging and vol of vol risk we study the empirical hedging performance of alternative vix option pricing models recent advances in the literature find evidence of asymmetric volatility of volatility similar to the leverage effect in equity markets stochastic mean reversion and jumps using such findings in our model framework we show that while sophisticated models have superior pricing performance and can explain a range of stylized facts in the vix derivatives market their hedging performance is inferior to a simple black model hedge we also study the empirical performance of regime dependent hedge ratio adjustments commonly applied in equity markets

an empirical investigation of advertising strategies in a dynamic duopoly the equilibrium profit maximizing advertising policies of firms operating in a dynamic duopoly are derived by linking in a single framework the econometric estimation of the market response function and the technique of differential games that characterizes dynamic competitive behavior we use the lanchester model of combat to represent the system dynamics that capture the competitive shifts due to investments in advertising by the two market rivals we determine the equilibrium advertising levels using both closed and open loop policies we also compare these equilibrium advertising policies for each firm to those obtained using an optimal control theory formulation wherein the advertising spending levels of the rival are assumed to be known the empirical results obtained by analyzing the advertising rivalry between coke and pepsi for the period 1968 1981 under the above three alternative spending policies provide some interesting insights into the nature of competition between these two market rivals a significant contribution of this paper is to extend the existing literature on advertising competition by integrating theoretical and empirical analyses

robust option pricing abstract in this paper we combine robust optimization and the idea of arbitrage to propose a tractable approach to price a wide variety of options rather than assuming a probabilistic model for the stock price dynamics we assume that the conclusions of probability theory such as the central limit theorem hold deterministically on the underlying returns this gives rise to an uncertainty set that the underlying asset returns satisfy we then formulate the option pricing problem as a robust optimization problem that identifies the portfolio which minimizes the worst case replication error for a given uncertainty set defined on the underlying asset returns the most significant benefits of our approach are a computational tractability illustrated by our ability to price multi asset american and asian options using linear optimization and thus the computational complexity of our approach scales polynomially with the number of assets and with time to expiry and b modeling flexibility illustrated by our ability to model different kinds of options various levels of risk aversion among investors transaction costs shorting constraints and replication via option portfolios

price flexibility in channels of distribution evidence from scanner data in this study we empirically examine the extent of price rigidity using a unique store level time series data set consisting of i actual retail transaction prices ii actual wholesale transaction prices which represent both the retailers costs and the prices received by manufacturers and iii a measure of manufacturers costs for 12 goods in two widely used consumer product categories we simultaneously examine the extent of price rigidity for each of the 12 products at both final goods and intermediate goods levels we study two notions of price rigidity employed in the existing literature i the frequency of price changes and ii the response of prices to exogenous cost changes we find that retail prices exhibit remarkable flexibility in terms of both notions of price rigidity i e they change frequently and they seem to respond quickly and fully to cost changes furthermore we find that retail prices respond not just to their direct costs but also to the upstream manufacturers costs which further reinforces the extent of the retail price flexibility at the intermediate goods level of the market in contrast we find relatively more evidence of rigidity in the response of manufacturers prices to cost changes this despite the fact that wholesale prices change frequently and therefore exhibit flexibility according to the first notion of price rigidity

prisoner s dilemma on behavioral choices in the presence of sticky prices farsightedness vs myopia abstract when making decisions in a dynamic environment myopic supply chain members tend to ignore the future effects of their decisions on the evolution of state dynamics by contrast far sighted decision makers consider about the impacts of current decisions on both current profits and future profits in order to study how behavioral choices affect the operation decisions and profits of supply chain members we develop a differential game with sticky prices where one manufacturer purchases components from one supplier and makes final products for end customers the supplier decides on its wholesale price while the manufacturer sets its production quantity either of supply chain members has two behavioral choices myopia and farsightedness we derive and compare equilibrium solutions under four different behavioral combinations our analysis shows that there always exists a prisoner s dilemma caused by behavioral choices farsightedness is a dominant strategy for either the supplier or the manufacturer but both to act myopically makes both of them better off furthermore comparing with other scenarios the whole supply chain obtains the highest profit when both players are myopic in addition we introduce a revenue sharing contract with static wholesale price to mitigate the adverse impacts of the prisoner s dilemma

competitive dynamic advertising a modification of the case game abstract in this paper we consider a modified version of the advertising differential game of case 1979 we derive non cooperative nash equilibria for open loop controls as well as for feedback strategies we consider finite and infinite planning horizons the feedback equilibrium is shown to be robust against stochastic disturbances of the state equation

risk sensitive dynamic market share attraction games we present partial results showing that risk sensitive oligopolists would spend less on advertising than would their risk neutral counterparts the model is an infinite horizon stochastic game in which each firm s goodwill is a random function of both its own and its competitors current and past advertising expenditures single period firm profits have a market share attraction form each firm seeks to maximize its expected exponential utility of the sum of discounted profits we analyze the impact that risk sensitivity and other parameters have on equilibrium advertising strategies by exploiting the special structure of the stochastic game model journal of economic literatureclassification number c73

what is a public sector pension worth we measure accruals in defined benefit db pension plans for public and private sector workers in britain using typical differences in scheme rules and sector specific lifetime age wage profiles by sex and educational group we show not just that coverage by db pension plans is greater in the public sector but that median pension accruals as a percentage of salary are more than 6 higher among db covered public sector workers than covered private sector workers this is largely driven by earlier normal pension retirement ages but also by differences in earnings profiles across the sectors

an empirical study on the lanchester model of combat for competitive advertising decisions this paper presents an empirical study on the lanchester model of combat for competitive advertising decisions three issues are evaluated i the specification of the market share response model ii the effect of inflation on the estimation of the response model and iii the performance of competitive strategies it is shown that a the square root function that is used in previous studies is often inappropriate to characterize the market share response model b market share variations are more responsive to current advertising expenditures c closed loop nash equilibrium strategies are better competitive advertising strategies for firms to maximize profits than open loop nash equilibrium strategies and d finally general perfect equilibria nash equilibrium strategies developed by case are usually not good competitive advertising strategies for firms to maximize profits

the payment of public sector workers in the uk reconciliation with north american findings abstract in common with recent north american evidence the highest wage premiums for uk public sector workers are found in the lower tail of the wage distribution evidence of public sector underpayment at the opposite extreme of the earnings spectrum is also apparent

estimating coke s and pepsi s price and advertising strategies a semiparametric information based estimator is used to estimate strategies in prices and advertising for coca cola and pepsi cola separate strategies for each firm are estimated with and without restrictions from game theory these information entropy estimators are consistent and efficient these estimates are used to test theories about the strategies of firms and to see how changes in incomes or factor prices affect these strategies

recent developments in dynamic advertising research a variety of continuous time differential functions have been developed to investigate dynamic advertising problems in business and economics fields since major dynamic models appearing before 1995 have been reviewed by a few survey papers we provide a comprehensive review of the dynamic advertising models published after 1995 which are classified into six categories i nerlove arrow model and its extensions ii vidale wolfe model and its extensions iii lanchester model and its extensions iv the diffusion models v dynamic advertising competition models with other attributes and vi empirical studies for dynamic advertising problems for each category we first briefly summarize major relevant before 1995 models and then discuss major after 1995 models in details we find that the dynamic models reviewed in this paper have been extensively used to analyze various advertising problems in the monopoly duopoly oligopoly and supply chain systems our review reveals that the diffusion models have not been used to analyze advertising problems in supply chain operations which may be a research direction in the future moreover we learn from our review that very few publications regarding dynamic advertising problems have considered the supply chain competition we also find that very few researchers have used the diffusion model to investigate the dynamic advertising problems with product quality as a decision variable and the pricing decision has not been incorporated into any extant lanchester model the paper ends with a summary of our review and suggestions on possible research directions in the future

competition in a duopoly with sticky price and advertising abstract this paper develops a differential duopolistic game where price is sticky and firms can invest in market enlarging promotional activities which have a public good nature one finding indicates that advertising and not output as in fershtman and kamien econometrica 55 1987 1151 1164 is responsible for the higher stationary price found in the open loop equilibrium relative to the linear feedback one that is free riding is more intense when firms play linear markov feedback strategies however the collusive outcome can be approximated and opportunism eliminated if firms can engage in preplay negotiations where they select a nonlinear markov perfect strategy for output and advertising achieving the collusive outcome requires as in the folk theorem for infinitely repeated games the discount rate to be sufficiently small

markov perfect equilibrium advertising strategies of lanchester duopoly model a technical note we propose a numerical approach to compute stationary markov perfect nash equilibrium advertising strategies of the lanchester model the algorithm can be implemented using a standard mathematical package and importantly it does not require that the players discount their future earnings at a zero rate an assumption that has been made in the literature

empirical analysis of closed loop duopoly advertising strategies closed loop perfect equilibria in a lanchester duopoly differential game of advertising competition are used as the basis for empirical investigation two systems of simultaneous nonlinear equations are formed one from a general lanchester model and one from a constrained model two empirical applications are conducted in one involving coca cola and pepsi cola a formal statistical testing procedure is used to detect whether closed loop equilibrium advertising strategies are used by the competitors rather than open loop strategies in the second application involving anheuser busch and miller the general model is estimated results indicate that closed loop equilibria better explain dynamic advertising competition than do open loop equilibria also closed loop equilibrium advertising strategies implied by model estimates show that competitive advertising levels may or may not be monotonic in market share

quality improvement and goodwill accumulation in a dynamic duopoly abstract this paper analyzes optimal advertising and quality improvement decisions by duopolist firms competing in a dynamic setting an extended version of the lanchester model is formulated where conformance quality and goodwill are both involved in competition for market share each competitor s new customer attraction rate depends on its own goodwill while the disloyalty rate for current customers is influenced by the proportion of defective items the search for a non cooperative solution by qualitative as well as numerical means leads to definition of the optimal path for advertising and improvement efforts for each competitor examined under a wide range of configurations

the central government private sector wage differential since ehrenberg and schwarz 1986 there has been a plethora of articles investigating the relationship between public and private sector wages this article examines part of this post 1986 literature by reviewing articles that examine central government private sector wage differentials in sum most articles find that there is a premium paid to central government workers although the premium has declined in recent years in developing countries however the differential is usually negative women and minorities tend to do better in the public sector relative to their private sector counterparts the evidence on union premiums between sectors is mixed although the premium tends to be higher in the private sector however public sector union workers do not do much better than private sector union members the magnitude of all of the wage differentials discussed are sensitive to the estimation technique and data source used the most common explanation for the public sector wage premium is economic rent accruing to government workers although the public sector wage determination literature suggests that the differential is due to returns to political and vote producing activities not relevant in the private sector

advertising in a dynamic spatial monopoly this paper characterises the dynamics of advertising investment in a spatial monopoly contrasting the socially optimal behaviour of a benevolent planner against that of a profit seeking monopolist in steady state the monopolist always distorts both output and advertising decisions as compared to the social optimum except in a situation where under both monopoly and social planning the equilibrium entails full market coverage