credit constraints equity market liberalizations and international trade abstract this paper provides evidence that credit constraints are an important determinant of international trade flows i exploit shocks to the availability of external finance and examine the impact of equity market liberalizations on the export behavior of 91 countries in the 1980 1997 period i show that liberalizations increase exports disproportionately more in financially vulnerable sectors that require more outside finance or employ fewer collateralizable assets this result is not driven by cross country differences in factor endowments and is independent of simultaneous trade policy reforms moreover it obtains with equal strength in the full panel of countries as well as in both panel and event study analyses of countries which removed capital controls during the sample period finally the effects of liberalizations are more pronounced in economies with initially less active stock markets indicating that foreign equity flows may substitute for an underdeveloped domestic financial system similarly opening equity markets has a greater impact in the presence of higher trade costs caused by restrictive trade policies

the unbalanced uruguay round outcome the new areas in future wto negotiations the uruguay round involved a grand north south bargain the north reduced import barriers particularly in textiles and agriculture the south adopted new domestic regulations in such areas as services and intellectual property changes that would lead to increased purchases from the north in mercantilist economics apples for apples imports for imports in real economics apples for oranges the authors argue that while the north s reduction of import barriers benefits both the north and the south the new domestic regulations adopted by countries of the south could prove costly to those countries to begin with the regulations will be expensive to implement and while the cost side of their impact is secured by a legal obligation in the case of intellectual property rights for example the cost is higher prices for patented goods the benefits side is not so secured

does marriage really make men more productive this paper presents new descriptive evidence regarding marital pay premiums earned by white males longitudinal data indicate that wages rise after marriage and that cross sectional marriage premiums appear to result from a steepening of the earnings profile data from a company personnelfile that includes information on job grades and supervisor performance ratings reveal large marital status pay differences within a narrow range of occupations managers and professionals and environments a single firm married workers tend to be located in higher paying job grades there are very small pay differentials within grades married men receive higher performance ratings than single men as a result they are much more likely to be promoted controlling for rated performance however eliminates the promotion differential sanders korenman is an assistant professor of economics and public affairs at princeton university and is a faculty associate of the office of population research at princeton university and a research affiliate of the national bureau of economic research nber david neumark is an assistant professor of economics at the university of pennsylvania and a research affiliate of the nber korenman wishes to acknowledge the hewlett foundation and the harvard university center for population studies for financial support the authors are grateful to james medofffor making available an extract from the company personnelfile questions regarding data availability should be directed to professor james

measuring positive externalities from unobservable victim precaution an empirical analysis of lojack lojack is a hidden radio transmitter device used for retrieving stolen vehicles because there is no external indication that lojack has been installed it does not directly affect the likelihood that a protected car will be stolen there may however be positive externalities due to general deterrence we find that the availability of lojack is associated with a sharp fall in auto theft rates of other crime do not change appreciably at least historically the marginal social benefit of an additional unit of lojack has been fifteen times greater than the marginal social cost in high crime areas those who install lojack however obtain less than 10 percent of the total social benefits leading to underprovision by the market

the role of key stakeholders in the international joint venture negotiations case studies from eastern europe recent literature has suggested that a key stakeholder may be able to shift the balance of bargaining power during a joint venture negotiation and thus change the outcome of the process this paper explores the role of central and eastern european transitional governments as key stakeholders and how they influence international joint venture negotiations this role is described and analyzed by examining eight dyads of western european and central eastern european enterprises that have recently negotiated agreements the findings suggest that transitional governments as key stakeholders intervene at different stages of the negotiation process have both direct and indirect influences on the process and that they can change the balance of power in the negotiations sometimes to the detriment of their own state owned enterprise

did unilateral divorce laws raise divorce rates a reconciliation and new results application of the coase theorem to marital bargaining suggests that shifting from a consent divorce regime to no fault unilateral divorce laws should not affect divorce rates each iteration of the empirical literature examining the evolution of divorce rates across us states has yielded different conclusions about the effects of divorce law liberalization i show that these results reflect a failure to jointly consider both the political endogeneity of these divorce laws and the dynamic response of divorce rates to a shock to the political regime taking explicit account of the dynamic response of divorce rates to the policy shock i find that liberalized divorce laws caused a discernible rise in divorce rates for about a decade but that this increase was substantially reversed over the next decade that said this increase explains very little of the rise in the divorce rate over the past half century both administrative data on the flow of new divorces and measures of the stock of divorcees from the census support this conclusion these results are suggestive of spouses bargaining within marriage with an eye to their partner s divorce threat

changing the price of marriage evidence from blood test requirements abstract we use state repeals of blood test requirements btrs for a marriage license that occurred between 1980 and 2008 to examine the impact of changes in the price of marriage on the marriage decision using a within group estimator that holds constant state and year effects and exploits variation in the repeal dates of btrs across states we find that btrs are associated with a 6 1 percent decrease in marriage licenses issued by a state this main finding is supported with results from individual level marriage license and current population survey data the largest effects are found for lower socioeconomic groups

policy watch the marriage penalty many government programs have implicit penalties or subsidies for marriage for example many couples pay higher income taxes when married than their combined tax liabilities as single filers while many other couples receive a marriage subsidy because their joint taxes fall with marriage likewise most low income couples are eligible for higher welfare benefits if they are separated rather than married this article discusses the marriage penalty with a particular focus on tax and transfer programs why does it exist who faces it to what extent does it affect marriage and labor market behavior what tradeoffs are involved in reducing it

how do sex ratios affect marriage and labor markets evidence from america s second generation sex ratios i e relative numbers of men and women can affect marriage prospects labor force participation and other social and economic variables but the observed association between sex ratios and social and economic conditions may be confounded by omitted variables and reverse causality this paper uses variation in immigrant flows as a natural experiment to study the effect of sex ratios on the children and grandchildren of immigrants the flow of immigrants affected the second generation marriage market because second generation marriages were mostly endogamous i e to members of the same ethnic group the empirical results suggest that high sex ratios had a large positive effect on the likelihood of female marriage and a large negative effect on female labor force participation perhaps surprisingly the marriage rates of second generation men appear to be a slightly increasing function of immigrant sex ratios higher sex ratios also appear to have raised male earnings and the incomes of parents with young children the empirical results are broadly consistent with theories where higher sex ratios increase female bargaining power in the marriage market

technology and financial structure are innovative firms different we use data on publicly traded u k firms to investigate whether financing choices differ systematically with r d intensity as well as looking at a balance sheet measure of the debt assets ratio we also consider the probability of raising finance by issuing new equity and the shares of bank debt and secured debt in total debt we find a nonlinear relationship with the debt assets ratio firms that report positive but low r d use more debt finance than firms that report no r d but the use of debt finance falls with r d intensity among those firms that report r d we find a simpler relationship with the probability of issuing new equity firms that report r d are more likely to raise funds by issuing shares than firms that report no r d and this probability increases with r d intensity the shares of bank debt and secured debt in total debt are both lower for firms that report r d compared to those that do not and tend to fall as r d intensity rises we discuss possible explanations for these patterns jel g32 o31 d21

economists capitalists and the making of globalization north american free trade in comparative historical perspective why did globalization happen current explanations point to a variety of conditions under which states have made the free market policy changes driving international economic integration since the 1980s such accounts disagree however about the key actors involved this article provides a reconciliation showing how two different combinations of actors and two different political economic pathways have led to globalization in recent decades in developed countries mobilization by business has been central elsewhere technocrats both constrained and empowered by international finance have pursued globalization more independently of business in both contexts economists technical authority has helped legitimate liberalization despite the limited diffusion of their ideas the article validates and elaborates this model using a comparative historical study of how the united states canada and mexico proposed negotiated and ratified agreements for free trade in north america

business costs and business policy for export controls the objectives of this study are to assess the costs to american companies of u s export controls and to suggest business policies to minimize their adverse effects the 1982 soviet gas pipeline case is used as a concrete example original field research among business people and government officials in europe and the u s is the main data source the main findings of the study are that the costs of export controls to american business that can be measured are very high and much above government estimates the optimum strategy for business to follow is to influence the executive branch of government rather than to press for compensation schemes or legislative changes

total protection a new measure of the impact of government interventions on investment profitability host country interventions in goods markets e g tariffs and quotas and factor markets e g tax holidays and training grants for workers are recognized as having substantial effects on the profitability of foreign direct investments this study proposes two new comprehensive measures total protection and an internationalized version of the marginal effective rate of taxation that incorporate all government interventions in a single easily understood common denominator readily applicable to empirical research empirical estimates of the total protection measure for europe suggest that for new investments government interventions in factor market increase profitability more than trade interventions

brexit negotiations from negotiation space to agreement zones brexit is decidedly a big question we agree with international business scholars who say that such questions need to be addressed using an inter disciplinary approach we use bargaining theory models of rational behavior and the negotiation literature to explain various brexit options and predict their consequences considering the lack of relevant experiential knowledge and the multidimensional high stakes negotiations underway it is little wonder that anxiety is growing across all 28 european union member states our analysis supports a coherent approach from rational bargaining model to real life international negotiation we position outcome scenarios in different agreement zones and explore their ramifications

buyer seller negotiations around the pacific rim differences in fundamental exchange processes the determinants of buyer seller negotiations in four cultures are investigated in a laboratory simulation one hundred thirty eight american 54 chinese 42 japanese and 38 korean business people participated in a two person buyer seller intracultural negotiation simulation in negotiations between americans the use of more problem solving bargaining strategies positively influenced negotiation outcomes in negotiations between chinese more competitive strategies led to better results in japanese and korean negotiations buyers achieved higher economic rewards than sellers in all four cultures bargainers were more satisfied with negotiation outcomes when partners were rated more attractive

the impact of environmental policy stringency on industrial r d conditional on pollution intensity and relocation costs stringent environmental regulations may encourage industrial innovation as technological advancements lower the cost of pollution abatement popp et al in handbook of the economics of innovation vol ii academic press burlington pp 873 938 2010 the pollution havens hypothesis on the other hand indicates that rather than innovating dirty industries may relocate to countries with less stringent environmental regulations copeland and taylor in j econ lit 42 1 7 71 2004 thus more stringent environmental regulations may increase or decrease innovative activities this paper examines empirically the impact of environmental regulations on r d intensities and r d expenditures in 21 manufacturing industries in 28 oecd countries from 2000 to 2007 i consider pollution intensity and the relative ease of relocation immobility as industry characteristics that determine the optimal industry response to increased environmental policy stringency i find that more pollution intensive industries innovate less as regulatory environments become more restrictive relative to less pollution intensive industries at the same time more immobile industries innovate more than more mobile industries as environmental regulations become more stringent illustrating innovation as an alternative to relocation

financial markets financial dependence and the allocation of capital abstract we explore one specific channel through which finance promotes growth the allocation of capital using international industrial data we find that countries with developed financial markets invest more in growing industries and pull out more funds of declining ones most interestingly this pattern is more eminent for those industries more dependent on external financing various robustness checks show that the results are not driven by reverse causality omitted variables specific countries or industries

is environmental policy a secondary trade barrier an empirical analysis should international trade agreements be extended to include negotiations over environmental policy the answer depends on whether countries distort levels of environmental regulations as a secondary means of providing protection to domestic industries our results suggest that they do previous studies of this relationship have treated the level of environmental regulation as exogenous and found a negligible correlation between environmental regulation and trade flows in contrast we find that when the level of environmental regulation is modelled as an endogenous variable its estimated effect on trade flows is significantly higher than previously reported jel classification fl f14 f18 est ce que la politique environnementale est une barriere commerciale secondaire une analyse empirique est ce que les accords commerciaux internationaux doivent etre etendus pour couvrir la politique environnementale la reponse depend du degre de distorsion que les pays introduisent dans leur politique environnementale pour proteger leurs industries nationales nos resultats suggerent que cet impact est important des etudes anterieures de cette relation ont traite la politique environnementale comme exogene et ont montre qu il existe une co relation negligeable entre politique envir onnementale et flux commerciaux au contraire nous revelons que quand la politique environnementale est consideree comme variable endoge ne son effet sur les flux com merciaux est plus eleve de maniere significative que ce qu on a note anterieurement

international trade and environmental quality a survey abstract international trade has been incorporating various aspects of environmental issues since 1970 the extent to which environmental problems might affect many facets of trade or vice versa has been the subject of considerable debate over these years in this article we have attempted to establish some of the links between international trade and environmental quality by performing a comprehensive literature review we discuss issues such as establishing direct and indirect effects of international trade on environmental quality effects of trade on economic development environmental quality and energy and their relation with each other and finally the role of governments and international organizations in this context studies have so far revealed some linkages between trade and environment through conventional trade theory however interactions between international trade and types of pollution their sink and assimilative capacity need to be analyzed using a general equilibrium approach currently very little knowledge and agreement on the nature of interactions between trade theories development process and environmental quality exist existing studies have shown that the structure of environmental regulations should be modified to reflect the existence of trade under imperfect competition therefore further research on the interaction between new trade theory and environmental regulation is needed also theoretical and quantitative analysis regarding the effects of environmental regulations on competitiveness and location decision is needed the intensity and type of environmental measures vary across issues and countries therefore harmonizing environmental measures creates an inefficient atmosphere and to assume that trade restrictions will either improve or reverse the environmental damages is a serious mistake given the dynamic and intricate nature of the problem trade and environment debate continues despite vast research and poses a challenge for researchers and policy makers in the foreseeable future

for love or money the impact of income taxes on marriage higher sometimes lower than their combined single income tax obligations in this paper we explore the impact of the federal individual income tax as well as other economic and demograplhic variables on the marriage decisionis of individuals using longitudinal data from the panel study on income dynamics for the period 1968 92 we estimate a discrete time hazard model of the time to first marriage we find that the probability of marriage is significantly affected by a range of economic and demographic variables importantly we find that an increase in total income taxes paid by married versus single women has a negative effect on the likelihood of marriage and that the change in the marginal tax rate is also a significant determinant of marriage in some cases in contrast the tax effects are rarely significant in determining marriage probabilities among men although there are some differential responses by race in general the impacts of the income tax variables even when statistically significant are small

bargaining and distribution in marriage the standard economic model of the family is a common preference model that assumes that a family maximizes a single utility function and implies that family behavior is independent of which individuals receive income or control resources in recent years this model has been challenged by game theoretic models of marriage that do not impose pooling and are therefore consistent with empirical evidence that income controlled by husbands and wives does have different effects on family behavior in this paper the authors review a number of simple bargaining models and relevant empirical evidence and discuss their implications for distribution within marriage

r d and internal finance a panel study of small firms in high tech industries since joseph schumpeter economists have argued that internal finance should be an important determinant of r d expenditures yet almost without exception previous empirical studies have not found evidence of such a relation using newly available data the authors investigate this puzzle with a panel of 179 small firms in high tech industries under each estimation strategy they employ the authors find an economically large and statistically significant relationship between r d investment and internal finance their results are consistent with the view that because of capital market imperfections the flow of internal finance is the principal determinant of the rate at which small high tech firms acquire technology through r d copyright 1994 by mit press

government policies market imperfections and foreign direct investment the internalization eclectic theory of foreign direct investment includes the important insight that government policies create market imperfections which make foreign direct investment an economically rational strategic alternative for firms this paper reexamines the effects of government policies on market imperfections and foreign direct investment fdi it broadens and refines the analysis of the impact of government policies by developing the following arguments 1 there is a wide range of government policies that affect firms fdi decisions via their effects on market imperfections 2 there are numerous dimensions of variability in government policies that need to be identified in order to understand fully the effects of government policies on market imperfections and hence fdi flows 3 some of the effects of government policies on market imperfections and fdi are the opposite of those previously noted in the fdi literature 4 the effects of government policies vary across the several individual components of fdi flows the paper thus examines the following variables and relationships more extensively and precisely than has the previous literature government policy variables as causal factors affecting fdi market imperfection variables as intervening factors in the causal connections between government policies and fdi and the multiple indicators of the various dimensions of fdi as dependent variables

what s the point of reciprocal trade negotiations exports imports and gains from trade this paper explains why trade policy makers may prefer reciprocal trade negotiations rtn to unilateral tariff reductions utr for economic reasons it answers puzzles like why wto reciprocity and strengthens the unnecessarily weak case made for the wto by those who downplay or dismiss benefits from foreign tariff reductions ftr rtn is superior to utr because it provides economic benefits that utr cannot namely ftr benefits which are clearer than potentially important utr benefits whereas each policy offers efficiency gains any terms of trade effect of utr generally detracts from these gains while any terms of trade effect of ftr is typically beneficial especially for a small price taking country with this benefit augmenting ftr s efficiency gains moreover benefits from reductions in foreign barriers may come from several sources they are not solely the result of terms of trade improvement or economies of scale the two benefits already noted in the literature though often dismissed for example with foreign ntb elimination possible home benefits are shown even with rising costs and terms of trade deterioration rtn is also superior to utr because by eliminating protection in either ntb or tariff form rtn provides an escape from not only a terms of trade prisoners dilemma but many other previously unrecognised prisoners dilemmas including one in international rent transfers and several others with no economies of scale or terms of trade motivation of course if superior rtn is not an option utr may well be desirable if reciprocity is an option but only in a narrower cu or fta form such reciprocity may still be superior to utr or it may be inferior theory cannot unambiguously rank these

capital account liberalization what do cross country studies tell us capital account liberalization it is fair to say remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day one reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very different implications for the desirability of liberalizing capital flows another is that empirical analysis has failed to yield conclusive results the answer another influential strand of thought contends is that this efficient markets paradigm is fundamentally misleading when applied to capital flows limits on capital movements are a distortion it is an implication of the theory of the second best that removing one distortion need not be welfare enhancing when other distortions are present

state government promotion of manufacturing exports a gap analysis this study empirically examines the level of the export related expertise of manufacturing firms in a midwestern state of the united states various problems they face in export business and types of government assistance desired by their stage of export involvement it also investigates the appropriateness of government export assistance and the gap between governmental export promotion efforts and private sector needs it is shown that the identification of expertise problems and government assistance needs by export stage can help government agencies develop a systematic approach to export promotion

why should trade negotiators negotiate about in recent years there have been growing demands to make trade liberalization contingent on adoption of common labor and environmental standards the straightforward economic answer is that this makes little sense neither the gains from trade nor the gains from appropriate regulation are compromised if other countries impose standards that are weaker than your own it is possible to offer second bet economic rationales for harmonization but these are empirically unconvincing the only serious argument in favor or regulation is political that regulation which is in the national interest may not be politically feasible unless other countries do the same

international multilateral negotiations and social networks compared to their bilateral counterparts multilateral negotiations in an international setting present an extremely complex set of negotiation phenomena this paper proposes a model of negotiations that examines how national culture organization specific factors and individual characteristics of the negotiators impact the multilateral negotiation process in a cross national context specifically social network theory and tools are utilized to examine how coalitions form and roles emerge among participants the model also posits the effect of social network activity on negotiation outcomes research propositions are forwarded in hopes of setting an agenda for the research stream implied by the model methods for testing the model and implications for academics and managers are also discussed

how the other half lived marriage and emancipation in the age of the pill abstract the contraceptive pill was fda approved in 1960 however it would be another decade before young unmarried women had full access in the meantime marriage constituted a way to the pill the later 1960s early 1970s also saw a convergence on 18 as the minimum age of marriage many states lowering it from 21 exploiting these law changes we find that a lowered minimum age precipitated marriage delayed marital fertility and improved women s educational and occupational outcomes marriage easing credit constraints combined with the contraceptive properties of the pill form the hypothesized pathway

who is afraid of political risk multinational firms and their choice of capital structure this paper investigates how multinational firms choose the capital structure of their foreign affiliates in response to political risk we focus on two choice variables the leverage and the ownership structure of the foreign affiliate and we distinguish different types of political risk such as expropriation unreliable intellectual property rights and confiscatory taxation in our theoretical analysis we find that as political risk increases the ownership share tends to decrease whereas leverage can both increase or decrease depending on the type of political risk using the microdatabase direct investment of the deutsche bundesbank we find supportive evidence for these different effects

should we get married the effect of parents marriage on out of wedlock children i introduction while marriage remains the foundation of family life in the united states the traditional process of family formation specifically marriage before having children has been dwindling the proportion of american children born to unmarried parents has increased dramatically over the past three decades from 12 in 1970 to nearly one third of all births today siglerushton and mclanahan 2002 the decoupling of marriage and fertility behavior is particularly common among the low income less educated urban population mclanahan and sandefur 1994 unmarried parents often have fewer resources and their children tend to display inferior outcomes compared to those raised by two married parents 1 concerned with the rise in out of wedlock parenthood and its implications for the children involved policies in recent years have been geared toward promoting marriage among unmarried parents 2 however little is known about the potential benefits of marriage after childbirth couples who have children out of wedlock are known to be selectively different from those who marry before having children unmarried parents tend to be of lower socioeconomic standing face poorer prospects in the marriage market and have lower incentives for assortative mating brown 2004 garfinkel glei and mclanahan 2002 rosenzweig 1999 hence interpreting the outcome differences found in simple comparisons of children born to married versus unmarried parents as benefits of marriage can be misleading as these differences may largely reflect the more favorable characteristics of married parents this study examines whether marriage between the biological parents after childbearing benefits the children involved using data on a representative sample of children all born to unmarried couples drawn from the fragile families and child wellbeing study ffcws the ffcws is particularly well suited to address this question as it provides child assessment data and detailed marriage fertility and socioeconomic information on both biological parents for a large representative sample of children born outside of marriage we focus on the effect of marriage among parents who are romantically involved at childbirth on child cognitive ability measured at age 3 based on scores from the peabody picture vocabulary test ppvt a widely used interviewer administered measure of receptive hearing and verbal ability in addition effects of marriage on child health and behavioral outcomes are analyzed a significant fraction of children in our sample experience the marriage of their parents we analyze whether marriage after childbearing affects early developmental outcomes using an empirical strategy centering around a potential outcome framework similar to an experiment where the treatment marriage after childbirth is randomly assigned we draw on matching methods e g heckman ichimura and todd 1998 rosenbaum and rubin 1983 to identify the treatment effect exploiting the detailed information on the parents provided in the ffcws this approach addresses the selection into marriage by constructing an appropriate comparison group for children whose parents marry after childbirth we first estimate the probability of marriage among unwed parents with a newborn and then compare the outcomes of children whose parents share similar probabilities of marriage but differ only in whether their parents transitioned into marriage within 3 yr after their birth the present study also sheds light on the role of typically unobserved factors likely to be important determinants of selection into marriage including the father s attributes and the degree to which the parents have similar characteristics positive assortative matching while some studies have examined the determinants of marital union formation among the population of single mothers e g aassve 2003 relatively little is known about the factors influencing the transition into marriage and the role of similarities in traits between unmarried biological parents

the implications of wto and gats for the banking sector in africa in this paper we assess the implications of the world trade organisation wto and the general agreement on trade in services gats for the banking sector in african signatory countries with emphasis on the free trade element we first review the relevant provisions of the gats for banking services and the main exemptions held by african countries we then analyse the main efficiency indicators for a sample of the top banks in 18 african economies for the period 1997 1998 we also use univariate statistics to analyse the dispersion of the key bank pricing and liquidity indicators in these economies for the period 1994 1998 the main findings imply that although full liberalization implicit in the wto and gats protocols will lead to a substantial shake up of the african banking industry however provided they have an appropriate regulatory framework and allow sufficient lead time most african countries have little to fear from liberalization at least in terms of the continuing existence of a locally owned banking industry and indeed these countries could reasonably expect to be able to restructure and compete at the very least in african wide or regional markets

does simplifying divorce and marriage registration matter evidence from china abstractthis article evaluates the marital consequences of easier access to divorce and marriage by exploiting a major policy change in china that simplifies both i first use a regression discontinuity design to examine the short run effect and find that simplified registration immediately triggered more and faster divorces and marriages in estimating the long run effect i adopt a difference in differences strategy that further exploits cross sectional variation in urbanization rate results indicate that the positive effect on marital outcomes especially on marriage rate persisted in the medium run for 4 years

volatility and growth credit constraints and the composition of investment abstract how does uncertainty and credit constraints affect the cyclical composition of investment and thereby volatility and growth this paper addresses this question within a model where firms engage in two types of investment a short term one and a long term one which contributes more to productivity growth because it takes longer to complete long term investment has a relatively less cyclical return but it also has a higher liquidity risk the first effect ensures that the share of long term investment to total investment is countercyclical when financial markets are perfect the second implies that this share may turn procyclical when firms face tight credit constraints a novel propagation mechanism thus emerges through its effect on the cyclical composition of investment tighter credit can lead to both higher volatility and lower mean growth evidence from a panel of countries provides support for the model s key predictions

orchestrating impartiality the impact of blind auditions on female musicians a change in the audition procedures of symphony orchestras adoption of blind auditions with a screen to conceal the candidate s identity from the jury provides a test for sex biased hiring using data from actual auditions in an individual fixed effects framework we find that the screen increases the probability a woman will be advanced and hired although some of our estimates have large standard errors and there is one persistent effect in the opposite direction the weight of the evidence suggests that the blind audition procedure fostered impartiality in hiring and increased the proportion women in symphony orchestras

male incarceration the marriage market and female outcomes abstract this paper studies how rising male incarceration has affected women through its effect on the marriage market variation in marriage market shocks arising from incarceration is isolated using two facts the tendency of people to marry within marriage markets defined by the interaction of race location and age and the fact that increases in incarceration have been very different across these three characteristics using a variety of estimation strategies including difference and fixed effects models and tsls models in which we use policy parameters to instrument for within marriage market changes in incarceration we find evidence that is on the whole consistent with the implications of the standard marriage market model in particular higher male imprisonment appears to have lowered the likelihood that women marry modestly reduced the quality of their spouses when they do marry and shifted the gains from marriage away from women and toward men the evidence suggests that women in affected

openness government size and the terms of trade this paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size ofngovernments both theoretically and empirically we argue that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels 1 a terms of trade externality whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and 2 the demand for insurance whereby trade raises risk and public transfers we provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms our main theoretical prediction is that the relative strength of the two explanations depends on a key parameter namely the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods moreover while the first mechanism is inefficient from the standpoint of world welfare the second is instead optimal in the empirical part of the paper we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and government size and we explore its determinants consistently with the terms of trade externality channel we show that the correlation is contingent on a low elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods our findings raise warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments

when in rome the effects of cultural adaptation on intercultural business negotiations drawing on social identity and similarity attraction theories as well as empirical studies in intercultural communication hypotheses were developed to test the effects of three degrees of adaptive behaviors during intercultural buyer seller negotiations hypotheses covered both the positive and negative effects of adaptation on the adjudged interpersonal attractiveness of the adaptor these hypotheses were tested in two experimental studies using scenario based manipulations the first study looked at american subjects responses to adaptive behaviors of japanese business people to test the generalizability of these findings to a less familiar culture a replication looking at american subjects responses to adaptive behaviors of korean business people was also conducted the findings partially support the notion that moderate adaptation may be the optimal strategy in intercultural negotiations moderate adaptation was found to improve the adjudged attraction of the japanese business people relative to no adaptation and substantial adaptation however this finding was not replicated with korean business people

dispensing with nafta rules of origin some policy options the objective of this paper is to use a computable general equilibrium cge methodology to estimate the economic gains for both canada and mexico of 1 adopting a north american customs union cu that would also liberalise rules of origin roo and 2 reviving the wto scenario of multilateral free trade thereby eliminating preferential commerce and thus the need for preferential roo across free trade agreements ftas such a cge methodology is useful as the approach permits computation of an efficiency or ex post cost of roo that might in some contexts be more relevant than the existing ex ante indices of roo restrictiveness which are unable to account for the fact that the use of preferential access in an fta and the concomitant roo compliance is an option not an obligation the paper shows that the erosion of nafta tariff preferences at the end of the 1990s and early 2000s which resulted from a different phasing of the nafta and uruguay round measures has reduced the efficiency cost of nafta roo making these rules economically less relevant especially for canada and therefore limiting somewhat the gains from liberalising them through a cu given this the wto scenario of multilateral free trade remains the approach that would deliver the largest economic gains in terms of gdp and welfare while making preferential commerce and roo obsolete

r d tax incentives in eu countries does the impact vary with firm size this paper studies the effect of r d tax incentives on the research activity of manufacturing firms based in france italy spain and the uk over the period 2007 2009 using a matching procedure we show that in all the examined countries but spain r d tax incentives induced a statistically significant increase in the intensity of r d expenses over sales however this effect is driven only by the behaviour of small firms by assessing the benefit cost ratio of r d tax policies we find evidence of substantial additional effects in italy and the uk

the effect of male wage inequality on female age at first marriage a model in which women search for husbands characterized by their wages predicts increasing within group male wage inequality raises the expected value of continued marital search and so lowers female marriage propensities using 1970 1980 and 1990 census data i test this hypothesis within geographically racially and educationally defined marriage markets the estimates suggest rising male wage inequality accounted for 7 to 18 of the decline in the propensity to marry between 1970 and 1990 for white women and more educated black women growing wage inequality appears to have had little effect on the marriage behavior of less educated black women

how national and international financial development affect industrial r d abstract we examine the impacts of both domestic and international financial market development on r d intensities in 22 manufacturing industries in 18 oecd countries for the period 1990 2003 we take account of such industry characteristics as the need for external financing and the amount of tangible assets multiple forms of domestic financial development are important determinants of r d intensity but only foreign direct investment is significant among alternative measures of international financial development we find the strongest effects for private bond market capitalization while fdi private credit by banks and stock market capitalization have similar effects in terms of magnitude

finance and the sources of growth the authors evaluate whether the level of development in the banking sector exerts a causal impact on economic growth and its sources total factor productivity growth physical capital accumulation and private saving they use 1 a pure cross country instrumental variable estimator to extract the exogenous component of banking development and 2 a new panel technique that controls for country specific effects and endogeneity they find that banks do exert a large causal impact on total factor productivity growth which feeds through to overall gdp gross domestic product growth the long run links between banking development and both capital growth and private savings are more tenuous

international business and trade in the next decade report from a delphi study the globalization of business causes major changes in the business environment and in business practices forecasting such changes is crucial for the preparation of responses to them this article reports on a delphi study conducted with a global set of experts drawn from the policy business and academic communities over three rounds of mailings these experts analyzed and debated the likelihood of changes in the international business environment over the next decade and the impact of these changes on corporate practices the findings identify key geographic areas of business growth major sectoral transformations shifts in the trade framework and its institution and strategies for corporate adjustment