an empirical analysis of wage dispersion and efficiency wages the main purpose of this study is to examine inter industry wage differentials in sweden after controlling for individual and job characteristics the results indicate that these differentials are substantial the ranking of the differentials was stable over time while the dispersion of wage premiums fell by 50 per cent during the period 1968 81 a period of strong efforts to reduce wage dispersion in sweden the relation between industry wage premiums and a number of industry characteristics is also examined along with new evidence which is in line with the shirking model hypothesis on the relation between wages and worker control

mass education or a minority well educated elite in the process of growth the case of india abstract this paper analyzes whether mass education is more growth enhancing in developing countries than having a minority well educated elite using indian census data as a benchmark and enrollment rates at different levels of education we compute annual attainment levels for a panel of 16 indian states from 1961 to 2001 results indicate that if the reduction in illiteracy stops at the primary level of education it is not worthwhile for growth instead the findings reveal a strong and significant effect on growth of a greater share of population completing tertiary education the economic impact is also found to be large a one percent change in tertiary education has the same effect on growth as a 13 decrease in illiteracy rates a sensitivity analysis shows the results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables structural breaks reverse causation or atypical observations

international migration the brain drain and poverty a cross country analysis the aim of the paper is threefold first it empirically investigates the effect of international migration on poverty in origin countries using data from a cross country analysis second it explores the specific part of the income distribution from which migrants are drawn by comparing the effect of international migration on different income quintiles of the population finally given that the selection of migrants depends not only on the income level of their households but also on the skill levels of movers the paper casts some light on the implications of the emigration of skilled workers on poverty this article shows that the stock of international migrants have a positive effect on the income of the poor while it does not have a significant impact on the income of the middle and top quintiles of the population in particular a 10 per cent increase in the per capita stock of migrants resident in oecd nations augments the income of the poor by 1 per cent on average and ceteris paribus finally the poverty reducing effect of migration holds even when the emigration process selects the best and the brightest

cultural distance and income divergence over time instead of featuring a long awaited convergence process the second half of the twentieth century witnessed a dramatic income divergence across countries we propose cultural distance between countries as a determinant of this economic divergence cultural similarity makes it easier for societies to interact learn and adopt from one another consequently cultural differences may lead to economic divergence over time as they slow down the adoption of technological and institutional innovations from the frontier countries we show that the overall economic divergence observed in the world since the 1950s is driven by countries with high relative cultural distance to the technological frontier in contrast the income gap among countries with low relative cultural distance remained unchanged over time further analysis reveals that a one unit rise in relative cultural distance to the frontier is associated with an increased income divergence of almost seven units

returns to investment in education a global update the author updates compilations of rate of return estimates to investment in education published since 1985 and discusses methodological issues surrounding those estimates some key patterns among the three main levels of education primary education continues to exhibit the highest social profitability in all world regions private returns are considerably higher than social returns because of the public subsidization of education the degree of public subsidy increases with the level of education which is regressive social and private returns at all levels generally decline by the level of a country s per capita income overall the returns to female education are higher than those to male education but at individual levels of education the pattern is more mixed the returns to the academic secondary school track are higher than the vocational track since unit cost of vocational education is much higher and the returns for those who work in the private competitive sector of the economy are higher than in the public noncompetitive sector and the returns in the self employment unregulated sector of the economy are higher than in the dependent employment sector controversies in the literature are discussed in the light of the new evidence the undisputable and universal positive correlation between education and earnings can be interpreted in many ways the causation issue on whether education really affects earnings can be answered only with experimental data generated by randomly exposing different people to various amounts of education given the fact that moral and pragmatic considerations prevent the generation of such pure data researchers have to make do with indirect inferences or natural experiments some have been attempted the author looks at the research on overeducation or surplus schooling the conclusions reinforce earlier patterns they confirm that primary education continues to be the number one investment priority in developing countries they also show that educating females is marginally more profitable than educating males that the academic secondary school curriculum is a better investment than the technical vocational tract and that the returns to education obey the same rules as investment in conventional capital that is they decline as investment is expanded

migration diversity and economic growth when migrants move from one country to another they carry a new range of skills and perspectives which nurture technological innovation and stimulate economic growth at the same time increased heterogeneity may undermine social cohesion create coordination and communication barriers and adversely affect economic development in this article we investigate the extent to which cultural diversity affects economic growth and whether this relation depends on the level of development of a country we use novel data on bilateral migration stocks that is the number of people living and working outside the countries of their birth over the period 1960 2010 and compute indices of fractionalization and polarization in so doing we explore the effect of immigration on development through its effect on the composition of the destination country we find that overall both indices have a distinct positive impact on real gdp per capita and that the effect of diversity seems to be more consistent in developing countries

dynamics of entry and exit of firms in the presence of entry adjustment costs abstract this paper presents a simple model of industry dynamics with entry adjustment costs these costs imply a non instantaneous adjustment path to the steady state so that the model permits the short run and long run characterization of industry dynamics in a single framework the type of the steady state zero entry and exit or positive entry and exit with the co existence of high efficiency and low efficiency firms depends on the fixed cost of entry as well as entry adjustment costs the short run dynamics exhibits non monotonicity if persistence in efficiency over time is not too high the model is consistent with the empirical observations that the total number of firms and net entry follow non monotonic paths and entry and exit are positively correlated over time

does low education delay structural transformation why do some countries industrialize later than others recent literature suggests that the prime reason is low agricultural productivity this paper argues that the initial level of human capital could also be a contributing factor we construct a neoclassical growth model which predicts that countries with a greater initial knowledge gap industrialize later we use this model as a baseline and calibrate it to historical data for the united kingdom we find that our baseline model performs well in replicating actual historical u k gross domestic product series during the postindustrialization era the same model also explains a significant fraction of past and recent cross country variations in per capita income levels

a population macroeconomic growth model for currently developing countries abstract this paper constructs a theoretical model that predicts as observed in some currently developing countries that the average school enrollment ratio may fall even when the average fertility rate declines unlike existing models the current analysis indicates that economic growth may slow down when a fertility transition starts asymmetric behavior with respect to fertility and education between households stemming from income inequality plays an important role in generating this result we examine the implications of an education subsidy policy contrary to intuition in some circumstances this policy may decrease the average school enrollment ratio and future economic growth

the contribution of schooling in development accounting results from a nonparametric upper bound how much would output increase if underdeveloped economies were to increase their levels of schooling we contribute to the development accounting literature by describing a nonparametric upper bound on the increase in output that can be generated by more schooling the advantage of our approach is that the upper bound is valid for any number of schooling levels with arbitrary patterns of substitution complementarity another advantage is that the upper bound is robust to certain forms of endogenous technology response to changes in schooling we also quantify the upper bound for all economies with the necessary data compare our results with the standard development accounting approach and provide an update on the results using the standard approach for a large sample of countries

genetic distance trade and the diffusion of development the determinants of countries long term income differences feature prominently in the literature spolaore and wacziarg the diffusion of development quarterly journal of economics 2009 124 469 529 argue that cultural differences measured by countries genetic distance are an important barrier to the diffusion of development from the world s technological frontier we revisit their findings in three ways first we successfully reproduce their results and confirm the robustness of their baseline findings second we estimate their models for different time periods and find that the impact of genetic distance on income differences did not significantly change over time finally we explore one of the underlying mechanisms of technology adoption and show that bilateral trade is one channel through which cultural differences retard the diffusion of development less

does schooling cause growth a number of economists find that growth and schooling are highly correlated across countries a model is examined in which the ability to build on the human capital of one s elders plays an important role in linking growth to schooling the model is calibrated to quantify the strength of the effect of schooling on growth by using evidence from the labor literature on mincerian returns to education the upshot is that the impact of schooling on growth explains less than one third of the empirical cross country relationship the ability of reverse causality to explain this empirical relationship is also investigated

crises and human capital accumulation this paper studies the effects of crises on human capital formation theoretically a crisis undermines total factor productivity which reduces the return to working and to accumulating physical capital if the crisis is temporary young agents will study now and work later human capital rises to test our model we rely on inflation crises as our main empirical proxy using gmm panel procedures our analysis for 86 countries in 1970 2000 confirms the positive effects of crises on human capital our main findings survive several robustness tests jel classification e31 d90 ce memoire etudie les effets des crises sur la formation de capital humain theoriquement une crise mine la productivite totale des facteurs de production ce qui reduit le rendement sur le travail et l accumulation du capital physique si la crise est temporaire les jeunes agents vont alors se mettre aux etudes et decident de travailler plus tard le capital humain s accroit pour mettre au test ce modele on etudie les crises inflationnistes comme reference a l aide des procedures d analyse de donnees de panels a la gmm l etude de 86 pays pour la periode 1970 2000 confirme les effets positifs des crises sur le capital humain les principaux resultats survivent bien a divers tests de robustesse

socioeconomic background and the returns to schooling in two low income economies in the united kingdom the increment to income yielded by an additional year of schooling declines as the occupational status of the worker s father rises in this note the relationship between family background and the returns to schooling is measured in kenya and tanzania in contrast to the united kingdom a positive relationship is documented several explanations for this marked difference between a high income economy and two low income economies are suggested copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

growth or stagnation the role of public education abstract this paper presents a political economic theory of growth and human capital accumulation where individuals of different ages disagree over the resource commitment to public education in the context of an overlapping generations model with two period lived agents population growth implies that the equilibrium quantity of public education reflects the preferences of youth and is therefore forward looking despite forward looking behavior it is shown that sufficiently rapid population growth can trigger economic stagnation in the political economic equilibrium the model therefore offers a novel explanation for observed negative correlations between population growth measures and economic growth

economic development and the return to human capital a smooth coefficient semiparametric approach this paper investigates the impact of human capital on the process of economic growth by allowing the contribution of traditional inputs capital and labour as well as that of human capital to vary both across countries and time the former is accomplished by constructing an index of tfp growth for traditional inputs while the latter through semiparametric methods we derive estimates of the output elasticity and social return to human capital for 51 countries at various stages of economic development copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

discontinuity of output convergence within the united states why has the course changed has the progress of output convergence changed within the united states this article examines the output convergence among u s states for the last five decades by making several improvements over the extant literature by applying a battery of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real output per worker data i e nominal values deflated by state level price we find that output convergence has not been a feature of the continental united states since the 1970s instead output convergence has proceeded among four subgroups within which constituent states have certain characteristics in common our regression analysis suggests that state level characteristics related to technology and human capital play a crucial role in accounting for the formation and composition of convergence clubs in agreement with the recent theoretical models of growth and development e g aghion et al 2009 gennaioli et al 2013b the level of technology proxied by patents turns out to be a consistently significant determinant even after controlling for endogeneity suggesting that frictions in the diffusion of technology and human capital may have led to clustering of states with different levels of productivity our results therefore cast doubt on the common view that diffusion of knowledge and technology across state borders is frictionless jel o47 o51

which sectors make poor countries so unproductive which sectors are most responsible for the low total factor productivities of developing countries to answer this question we develop a new framework for sectoral development accounting applying this framework to the penn world table we find that in equipment construction and food the sectoral tfp differences between developing countries and the united states are much larger than in the aggregate however in manufactured consumption the sectoral tfp differences are about equal to the aggregate tfp differences and in services they are much smaller we show that our level of disaggregation allows us to reconcile the results of existing studies of sectoral productivity differences which have focused on noncomparable two sector decompositions of the aggregate data we also show that our results help shed light on existing theories of aggregate tfp differences

education s role in china s structural transformation abstract we explore education s role in improving the allocation of labor between china s agricultural and nonagricultural sectors and measure the portion of china s recent growth attributable to this channel using detailed micro level data and an empirical model that allows for the endogenous selection of education and sector of employment we estimate the relationship between an individual s educational attainment sector and income we find that about 11 of aggregate growth in output per worker from 1978 to 2004 is accounted for by increased education with 9 coming through the labor reallocation channel and 2 attributable to increased within sector human capital

impact of microfinance on schooling evidence from poor rural households in bolivia summary channels for the influence of microfinance programs on a rural household s demand for schooling are identified income growth risk management child labor demand gender empowerment and parent information within a random utility framework a model of household consumption investment in education and borrowing suggests determinants at the individual household and regional levels of the probability of schooling gaps using data from two surveys of households of clients of microfinance organizations in bolivia regression models examine determinants of schooling gaps inferences about otherwise positive microfinance impacts identify potential negative effects of increased child labor demand which challenge usual assumptions and pose dilemmas for policymakers

human capital and growth abstract this paper describes a growth model with the property that human capital accumulation can account for all observed growth the model is shown to be consistent with evidence on individual productivities as measured by census earnings data the central hypothesis is that we learn more when we interact with more productive people

survival duration of plants evidence from the us petroleum refining industry abstract this paper presents a duration analysis on the survival of us petroleum refining plants for the 1981 1986 period when the industry as a whole declines in response to the decontrol of crude oil markets the purpose is to examine the duration dependence and determinants of post deregulation plant lifetimes the weibull model with the correction for unobserved individual heterogeneity provides a better fit to the data empirical results show that plant size age regulatory subsidies technology use and multiplant coordination are key determinants of refinery life duration after deregulation in addition major integrated oil companies tend to make timely restructuring via refinery closures and sales the interactive effects of size and technology use and of multiplant coordination and integrated organization are also important to the refinery survival

economic growth and the structure of long term development this volume collects some of the papers presented at the 82nd round table conference of the international economic association that was organised in collaboration with fondazione eni enrico mattei the book considers different approaches to the analysis of economic growth and it is organised in five parts par i is devoted to empirical evidence part ii contains six papers which present a series of models based on different approaches but with special emphasis on endogenous growth and on schumpeterian models of growth and fluctuations part iii of the book is devoted to the impact of international trade on economic development part iv examines the effects of economic development on the natural environment the final part of the book part v contains the concluding evaluations contributors p aghion r aversi d ben david g bertola o castellino f donati g dosi w easterly s fabiani c freeman r goodwin j helliwell e helpman p howitt r king m landesmann r levine s lombardini k g maler w d nordhaus l l pasinetti s rebelo a sen l soete r m solow m syrquin b verspagen s zervos

is infrastructure capital productive a dynamic heterogeneous approach this paper offers an empirical evaluation of the output contribution of infrastructure drawing from a large data set on infrastructure stocks covering 88 countries and spanning the years 1960 2000 and using a panel time series approach the paper estimates a long run aggregate production function relating gdp to human capital physical capital and a synthetic measure of infrastructure given by the first principal component of infrastructure endowments in transport power and telecommunications tests of the cointegration rank allowing it to vary across countries reveal a common rank with a single cointegrating vector which is taken to represent the long run production function estimation of its parameters is performed using the pooled mean group estimator which allows for unrestricted short run parameter heterogeneity across countries while imposing the testable restriction of long run parameter homogeneity the long run elasticity of output with respect to the synthetic infrastructure index ranges between 0 07 and 0 10 the estimates are highly significant both statistically and economically and robust to alternative dynamic specifications and infrastructure measures there is little evidence of long run parameter heterogeneity across countries whether heterogeneity is unconditional or conditional on their level of development population size or infrastructure endowments

education and economic growth a meta regression analysis summary this paper surveys the literature which examines the effect of education on economic growth specifically we apply meta regression analysis to 57 studies with 989 estimates and show that there is substantial publication selection bias toward a positive impact of education on growth once we account for this the genuine growth effect of education is not homogeneous across studies but varies according to several factors specifically it is attributed to differences in education measurement and study characteristics mainly model specification as well as type of data used and the quality of research outlets where studies are published e g academic journals vs working papers

iq in the production function evidence from immigrant earnings the cross country growth literature especially sala i martin 1997 sala i martin doppelhofer and miller 2004 has found that traditional education measures rarely have a robust relationship with growth and productivity elementary education being a rare exception by contrast a new empirical growth literature jones and schneider 2006 lynn and vanhanen 2002 ram 2007 weede 2004 weede and kampf 2002 has shown that a nation s average iq has a remarkably robust relationship with its productivity figure 1 that a test designed by psychologists should have such a robust relationship with economic variables is a puzzle that demands explanation for instance jones and schneider showed that national average iq was more robust than other human capital variables and was statistically significant at the 1 level in all 455 growth regressions that controlled for all 18 factors that passed sala i martin doppelhofer and miller s 2004 robustness tests of course as with all the growth regression literature a key difficulty is disentangling cause and effect thus in this article we run no growth regressions whatsoever instead we perform a simple calibration of the iq productivity relationship based on widely agreed upon microeconomic parameters that means we can directly estimate one causal channel running from cognitive ability to productivity in the process we learn the following 1 if one knows the average iq of a nation s citizens as estimated by lynn and vanhanen 2002 2006 one can predict the average wages that immigrants from that country will earn upon their arrival in the united states whether or not one controls for immigrant education and even if the test is completely visual rather than verbal in other words national average iq predicts part of what hendricks 2002 calls unmeasured worker skill 2 we find that a 1 point increase in national average iq predicts 1 higher immigrant wages precisely the value found repeatedly in microeconometric studies note that by construction 1 iq point approximately equal to 1 15th of a standard deviation within any large national population together points 1 and 2 provide further evidence that cross country iq tests are valid predictors of worker productivity 3 when iq is added to the production function in the form implied by traditional externality free human capital theory differences in national average iq are quantitatively significant in explaining cross country income differences that said our productivity accounting exercise does not resolve the puzzle of why high iq countries are 15 times richer than low iq countries in a related vein hanushek and kimko 2000 use national math and science test scores to verify that cognitive skills appear to matter more for groups than for individuals like us they use immigrants to the united states as a way to test whether immigrants bring their home country productivity levels along with them when they immigrate to the united states when they interpret their results within a solow type framework they conclude that the cross country growth equation results are much larger than the corresponding results for individual earnings in sum our article rigorously explores the quantitative magnitude of the puzzle uncovered by hanushek and kimko 2000 and hanushek and woessman 2007 but by using iq tests rather than other widely used math and science test scores we can often double our sample size while simultaneously using the most widely analyzed best understood form of cognitive test we begin with an overview of the recent psychological literature on the validity of iq tests and then proceed to our discussion of the link between iq and immigrant wages the discussion of iq and immigrant wages yields a key parameter gamma the iq semi elasticity of wages which we use in our development accounting exercise we then discuss the questions of reverse causality and trends in the iq productivity relationship over the past 40 yr and conclude by discussing how our results fit into the growth literature

firm entry and exit in the canadian manufacturing sector 1970 1982 this paper measures the importance of entry and exit to the canadian manufacturing sector in the 1970s it focuses on the size of entrants as they move from a stage of infancy to adolescence the exit rates of births their length of life and the growth path of entrants are presented distinctions are made between greenfield and merger entry while entrants are small at birth the cumulative effect of successive cohorts of entrants in the 1970s adds up to a significant fraction of all firms and total sales by 1979

hyteresis in import prices the beachhead effect this paper shows that temporary real exchange rate fluctuations can have persistent hysteretic effects on trade specifically when market entry costs are sunk sufficiently large exchange rate shocks alter domestic market structure and thereby induce hysteresis this simple result has strong implications for exchange rate theory t rade policy and estimation of trade equations empirical evidence su ggests that the recent dollar overvaluation induced hysteresis in u s import prices namely the aggregate pass through equation of exchange rates to import prices shifted in the 1980s the shift s nature and timing is broadly consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis copyright 1988 by american economic association

human capital accumulation and endogenous public expenditures in this paper we present an overlapping generations model where individuals accu mulate human capital through formal schooling we model the role of the public sector in schooling as one of collecting taxes from households and providing inputs to the learning technology public expenditures on schools are determined endogenously under plausible restrictions our model s predictions qualitatively match the observations on schooling pub lic expenditures on education and student teacher ratios jel classification el 3 e62 accumulation de capital humain et depenses publiques endogenes dans ce memoire les auteurs presentent un modele de generations qui se chevauchent ofu les individus accumulent du capital humain via l education formelle le r6le du secteur public dans l education est defini comme celui de collecteur d imp6ts aupres des menages et de fournisseur d intrants dans la technologie d apprentissage les depenses publiques en education sont determinees de maniere endogene a partir de restrictions plausibles les predictions du modele s arriment qualitativement aux observations sur le monde scolaire aux depenses publiques en educa tion et aux ratios 6leves enseignants

the economics of schooling production and efficiency in public schools n recent years public and professional interest in schools has been heightened by a spate of reports many of them critical of current school policy these policy documents have added to persistent and long standing concerns about the cost effectiveness and fairness of the current school structure and have made schooling once again a serious public issue as in the past however any renewed interest in education is likely to be short lived doomed to dissipate as frustration over the inability of policy to improve school practice sets in this frustration about school policy relates directly to knowledge about the educational production process and in turn to underlying research on schools although the educational process has been extensively researched clear policy prescriptions flowing from this research have been difficult to derive 2 there exists however a consistency to the research findings that does have an immediate application to school policy schools differ dramatically in quality

the impact of education on subjective discount rate in ugandan villages abstract heterogeneity in time discounting may reinforce the existing barriers to save and invest faced by rural populations in developing countries we elicit a subjective discount rate for a varied sample of ugandan villagers in accordance with other studies we have found the discount rate to decrease with education we examine this correlation further by testing the causal effect of education and exploit two different sources of its variation school frequency across villages and the number of the respondents school going years that overlap with the era of the dictator idi amin s rule for men we find that education has a significant impact on their discount rate similar in magnitude for both types of instruments and robust to observable characteristics this finding highlights the importance of education in development

green economics putting the planet and politics back into economics green economics is arising from a study of the economy that takes a philosophical position characterised by a deep respect for nature it is primarily a system of ideas and principles rather than a rationally argued intellectual position its ideas are powerful and influential on developments in policy and politics but it is presently less well grounded in the academy green economists do not dwell overmuch on introspection and their method is implicit rather than explicit relying on a grounded embedded and phenomenological approach and rejecting the scientism and spurious objectivity of neoclassical economics in this paper i outline four key issues central to a green study of the economy the need to end economic growth the importance of equality and questions of the just distribution of resources the requirement to consider appropriate scale in economic decision making and the need to include multiple perspectives in the study of economics copyright oxford university press

technological change entry and stock market dynamics an analysis of transition in a monopolistic industry we consider the share price dynamics induced by changes in technological progress perhaps due to the introduction of a new technology or institutional reforms and the resultant entry of firms the focus is not so much in comparing the steady states before or after the change but rather on the transitional dynamics of the industry or economy as it adjusts the model is one with efficient markets and perfect foresight where fundamentals drive the stockmarket value should we expect technological progress to lead only to increases in the level of the stockmarket monotonic dynamics or should we expect nonmonotonic behavior of boom followed by partial bust a u shaped or overshooting dynamic is it possible to have share values falling even when the underlying technology is improving we model a stylized monopolistic industry or economy in a continuous time generalequilibrium setting with no uncertainty and perfect foresight we adopt a model of entry found in sanghamitra das and satya p das 1997 datta and dixon 2000 and marta aloi and dixon 2001 in which the cost of entry is increasing in the flow of entry due to some congestion effect or other externality the flow of entry is determined by an intertemporal arbitrage condition that equates the cost of entry with the present value of incumbency this gives rise to a dynamic zero profit condition the present value of incumbents in each instant is equal to the cost of entry we first consider the case of a step increase in the level of technology with no other underlying growth when an unanticipated technological improvement occurs it causes a stock market boom there is a jump in the share value the current profitability of incumbents and an increase in the flow of entry however eventually entry drives the profit level back to zero and shares decline back to the initial value the initial boom is followed by a bust we next consider the case of an economy with constant exponential technology growth what happens when the pace of technological change unexpectedly increases there is an upward jump in the stock market value of firms this can overshoot the new balancedgrowth path with the possibility that there will be a u shaped dynamic the initial boom is followed by a slump before tracking back to the higher growth rate if the initial jump overshoots the new balanced growth path there is a downward pull of share prices toward the new balanced growth path which may dominate this stock market behavior reflects the behavior of entry after an initial rush there is a temporary slowdown before eventually getting back on track a similar pattern can occur if the change is anticipated we believe that this might be some part of the explanation of the behavior of the stock market in the late 1990 s although real life is much more complicated see jeremy greenwood and boyan jovanovic 1999 the initial technological change causes a bonanza of profitable investment opportunities resulting in high profits for incumbents and many new firms being set up the increase in entry reduces profitability and this may cause the flow of entry to reduce if only in the short run finally however the long run growth opportunities begin to come through and the economy gets onto the new higher growth path

microeconomic approaches to development schooling learning and growth within the field of economic development over the past 15 years or so particularly significant advances have been made in what can be loosely called micro development an area defined principally by the units that are examined not by a particular methodological approach the units may be indi viduals households networks banks government agencies and so on as opposed to countries within this area economists use a wide variety of empirical methods informed to different degrees by economic models they use data from developed and

how important is human capital a quantitative theory assessment of world income inequality we develop a quantitative theory of human capital investment in order to evaluate the magnitude of cross country dierences in total factor productivity tfp that explains the variation in per capita incomes across countries we build a heterogeneousagent economy with cross sectional variation in ability schooling and expenditures on schooling quality in our theory the parameters governing human capital production and random ability process have important implications for a set of cross sectional statistics mincer return variance of earnings variance of schooling and intergenerational correlation of earnings these restrictions of the theory and u s household data are used to pin down the key parameters driving the quantitative implications of the theory our main finding is that human capital accumulation strongly amplifies tfp dierences across countries in particular we find an elasticity of output per worker with respect to tfp of 2 8 a 3 fold dierence in tfp explains a 20 fold dierence in output per worker we argue that the cross country dierences in human capital implied by the theory are consistent with a wide array of evidence including earnings of immigrants in the united states average mincer returns across countries and the relationship between average years of schooling and per capita income across countries the theory implies that using mincer returns to measure human capital understates dierences across countries by a factor of 2

retornos privados da escolaridade no parana the present studys goal is to estimate the returns of parana state private sectors labor schooling by means of heckman method in other words we carry through an analysis of schooling effects on wage return in parana state and evaluate which level of education primary secondary or tertiary is more important on income generation and therefore on labor productivity additionally we attempt to identify other factors that determine parana states labor income and we compare the results of the present analysis with other studies results for the brazilian and parana economies carried out by other authors

traders teachers and tyrants democracy globalization and public investment in education this article develops a model of the redistributive political economy of education spending focusing on the role of democracy and economic openness in determining the provision of education i argue that democratization should be associated with higher levels of public education spending lower private education spending and a shift from tertiary education spending toward primary education spending furthermore i argue that integration with the international economy should lead to higher public education spending conditioned on regime type and income and should push the balance between tertiary and primary education toward states particular comparative advantages these propositions are tested on a data set of more than one hundred states from 1960 to 2000 using a variety of panel data techniques including instruments for democracy the logic of the causal mechanism developed in the formal model is also tested on a number of case histories including the philippines which shows great variation in democracy and openness and india and malaysia which constitute unusual cases that lie off the diagonal of open democracies and autarkic autocracies the author would like to thank beth simmons torben iversen michael hiscox jeffry frieden jim alt teri caraway john freeman jane gingrich david samuels w phillips shively mark kayser john ahlquist and michael kellerman for highly useful comments and criticisms in addition i thank the current and past editors lou pauly emanuel adler david stasavage and lisa martin and three anonymous reviewers for their suggestions

the size of human capital externalities cross country evidence human capital accumulation is usually held to generate positive externalities however the empirical evidence on human capital externalities has been scarce and inconclusive the missing evidence appears to be caused by misleading comparisons between private and social rates of return by incorrect interpretations of regression coefficients or by an inappropriate level of aggregation our own estimates point to relatively robust empirical evidence for a human capital externality that is about twice as large as a benchmark estimate which is derived from a standard parameterization of a simple growth model we ponder a possible causal link from human capital to social capital in the context of alternative views of long run development and argue that the grand transition view paldam 2002 is compatible with the existence of a large human capital externality

human capital and industrialization evidence from the age of enlightenment while human capital is a strong predictor of economic development today its importance for the industrial revolution is typically assessed as minor to resolve this puzzling contrast we differentiate average human capital worker skills from upper tail knowledge both theoretically and empirically we build a simple two sector model where worker skills raise the productivity in both agriculture and manufacturing and scientific knowledge affects the entrepreneurial ability to keep up with a rapidly advancing technological frontier the model predicts that the local presence of knowledge elites is unimportant in the pre industrial era but drives growth thereafter worker skills in contrast are not crucial for growth to measure the historical presence of knowledge elites we use city level subscriptions to the famous encyclopedie in mid 18th century france we show that subscriber density is a strong predictor of city growth after 1750 but not before the onset of french industrialization alternative measures of development confirm this pattern soldier height and industrial activity are strongly associated with subscriber density after but not before 1750 literacy on the other hand does not predict growth finally by joining data on british patents with a large french firm survey from 1837 we provide evidence for the mechanism upper tail knowledge raised the productivity in innovative industrial technology

the contribution of education to economic growth a review of the evidence with special attention and an application to sub saharan africa summary this paper examines recent studies that estimate the impact of education on economic growth it explains why cross country regressions face formidable econometric problems recent studies are reviewed some show strong impacts of education on economic growth others show little effect all have multiple estimation problems which may explain their divergent results evidence shows that education quality in sub saharan africa is much lower than in other developing countries estimates from three influential studies are extended the results suggest that the impact of education on economic growth in sub saharan africa is lower than in other countries likely due to lower school quality

poverty and economic development evidence for the brazilian states abstract in the present study our primary concern is to examine the effects of poverty on economic development across the brazilian states from 1980 to 2015 many studies assess the effects of economic growth and economic development on poverty incidence but there is almost no one trying to measure the impact of poverty prevalence on economic development the results of this paper indicate that poverty incidence is essential in the economic development of the brazilian states poorer brazilian states have lower income per worker even when controlling for investment in physical capital human capital stock and the effective depreciation of capital the results point to the variables measuring extreme poverty as having more influence on the economic development of the brazilian states in relation to the variables quantifying poverty

the economic consequences of brain drain of the best and brightest microeconomic evidence from five countries this article presents results of innovative surveys that tracked academic high achievers from five countries to wherever they moved in the world to directly measure at the micro level the channels through which high skilled emigration affects sending countries there are high levels of emigration and of return and the income gains to the best and brightest from migrating are an order of magnitude greater than any other effect most high skilled migrants from poorer countries remit but involvement in trade and foreign direct investment is rare fiscal costs vary widely but are much less than the benefits to the migrants themselves two narratives drive discussions of the development impact of high skilled migration the first is the idea of a brain drain whereby the departure of doctors teachers engineers scientists and other highly skilled workers decimates the human capital and fiscal revenues of sending countries bhagwati and hamada 1974 such fears lead to calls for policies to restrict the flow of highly skilled workers such as demands that developed countries stop recruiting doctors from developing nations and efforts by developing nations to restrict the ease of their highly skilled individuals migrating 1 contrasting with this is the view of a highly educated diaspora as a potent force for developing the local economy through remittances trade foreign direct investment fdi and knowledge transfers with the experience of india and china in setting up technology firms as a result of diaspora working in silicon valley a prominent example saxenian 2002 economists have also emphasised that the possibility of migrating may spur human capital accumulation potentially leading to a net increase in the education levels of those in the home country 2

latin america in the rearview mirror abstract latin american countries are the only western countries that are poor and that are not gaining ground on the u s this paper evaluates why latin america has not replicated western economic success we find that this failure is primarily due to tfp differences latin america s tfp gap is not plausibly accounted for by human capital differences but rather reflects inefficient production we argue that competitive barriers are a promising channel for understanding low latin tfp we document that latin america has many more international and domestic competitive barriers than do western and successful east asian countries we also document a number of microeconomic cases in latin america in which large reductions in competitive barriers increase latin american productivity to western levels

cross country differences in the quality of schooling abstract this paper constructs a cross country measure of the quality of education using a novel approach based on international test scores data the first main finding is that there are large differences in education quality one year of schooling in the u s is equivalent to three or more years of schooling in a number of low income countries i incorporate the estimated series for schooling quality in an accounting framework calibrated using evidence on mincerian returns this leads to the second important finding which is that the fraction of income differences explained by the model rises substantially when one includes education quality the increase is around 22 percentage points

the slowdown in american educational attainment relative to those for high school graduates lifetime earnings for college graduates are higher for more recent cohorts at the same time across successive cohorts born after 1950 there is a stagnation in the fraction of high school graduates that go on to complete a college degree what explains this phenomenon i formulate a life cycle model of human capital accumulation in college and on the job where successive cohorts decide whether or not to acquire a college degree as well as the quality of their college education cohorts differ by the sequence of rental price per unit of human capital they face and by the distribution of initial human capital across individuals my model reproduces the observed pattern in college attainment for the 1920 1970 birth cohorts the stagnation in college attainment is due to the decrease in the growth rate of the rental price per unit of human capital commencing in the 1970s my model also generates about 80 of the increase in lifetime earnings for college graduates relative to those for high school graduates observed across cohorts

barriers to prosperity parasitic and infectious diseases iq and economic development iq scores differ substantially across nations this study argues that cross country variations in iq scores to a large extent reflect the burden of parasitic and infectious diseases pids and iron and iodine deficiency iid in infancy and in utero furthermore it is shown that the prevalence of health insults through the channel of cognitive ability is influential for the level as well as the growth in productivity across the world using data for 181 countries and an instrumental variable approach regressions reveal that the prevalence of pid iids is influential for growth and income inequalities globally

economic demographic and institutional determinants of life insurance consumption across countries life insurance has become an increasingly important part of the financial sector over the past 40 years providing a range of financial services for consumers and becoming a major source of investment in the capital market but what drives the large variation in life insurance consumption across countries remains unclear using a panel with data aggregated at different frequencies for 68 economies in 1961 2000 this article finds that economic indicators such as inflation income per capita and banking sector development and religious and institutional indicators are the most robust predictors of the use of life insurance education life expectancy the young dependency ratio and the size of the social security system appear to have no robust association with life insurance consumption the results highlight the importance of price stability and banking sector development in fully realizing the savings and investment functions of life insurance in an economy

eco localism and sustainability abstract economic sustainability is best secured by the creation of local or regional self reliant community economies this is the central argument of eco local economic theory drawing on the experience of local currencies community corporations regional food economies and other locally oriented efforts eco local theory presents a new analysis of the economy of place it focuses on locally symbiotic capital positive externalities of self reliance and negative externalities of long distance trade and its specific concepts and analyses of the economy efficiency and economies of scale and consumption and welfare given its specific values and assumptions it is an economic theory of the social economy that is compatible with but distinct from ecological economics

testing production functions used in empirical growth studies abstract we estimate and test alternative functional forms which have been used in the growth literature representing the aggregate production function for a panel of countries functional forms are confronted using a box cox test and results favor the mincerian formulation of schooling returns to skills

prospects for a heterodox economics of the environment and sustainability this paper introduces a special issue on heterodox economics of the environment and sustainability at present humanity faces several challenges such as resource scarcity biodiversity loss and climate change and yet we would argue contributions from traditional heterodox schools of thought such as post keynesianism marxism and to a lesser extent institutionalism have had relatively little to say about them instead the economic analysis of environmental issues has been dominated by approaches inspired by neoclassical economics and latterly by ecological economics the special issue is part of an effort to stimulate more heterodox work on the environment and to explore connections between existing groups of scholars particularly between ecological and heterodox economists

education lifetime labor supply and longevity improvements this paper presents an analysis of the differential role of mortality for the optimal schooling and retirement age when the accumulation of human capital follows the so called ben porath mechanism we set up a life cycle model of consumption and labor supply at the extensive margin that allows for endogenous human capital formation this paper makes two important contributions first we provide the conditions under which a decrease in mortality leads to a longer education period and an earlier retirement age second those conditions are decomposed into a ben porath mechanism and a lifetime human wealth effect vs the years to consume effect finally using us and swedish data for cohorts born between 1890 and 2000 we show that our model can match the empirical evidence

human capital and convergence a production frontier approach using nonparametric production frontier methods we decompose labor productivity growth into components attributable to technological change shifts in the world production frontier technological catch up movements toward or away from the frontier and physical and human capital accumulation movements along the frontier we find that 1 technological change is decidedly nonneutral 2 productivity growth is driven primarily by physical and human capital accumulation 3 the increased international dispersion of productivity is explained primarily by physical capital accumulation and 4 international polarization the shift from a unimodal to a bimodal distribution is brought about primarily by efficiency changes technological catch up

cultural constraints on innovation based growth to what extent does the cultural composition of a society impose a constraint on its long run growth potential we study this question in the context of an innovation based model of growth where cultural attitudes are endogenously transmitted from one generation to the next focusing on attitudes regarding patience we analyze the two way interaction between economic growth and the intergenerational transmission of patience exploiting this interaction we compare the long run growth performance of a culturally heterogeneous society where patience is initially underrepresented in the population with a culturally homogeneous society where all agents are perfectly patient our main result is that in the absence of any intrinsic preferences of patient parents to transmit their attitudes to their children the development paths of the two societies are bound to diverge with the culturally heterogeneous society experiencing lower growth rates yet if patient parents ceteris paribus prefer their children to be patient like them we show that the two societies can in the long run grow at the same rate jel d91 e24 o30 o40 z10

the optimal public expenditure financing policy does the level of economic development matter i introduction does the growth effect of public expenditures depend on the way these expenditures are financed over the years a substantial volume of theoretical and empirical research has been directed toward identifying the elements of public expenditure at its aggregated and disaggregated level that bear significant association with economic growth in contrast only a handful of studies have paid particular attention to examine the extent to which the growth effect of public expenditures depends on the method of financing such expenditures e g de gregorio 1993 miller and russek 1997 palivos and yip 1995 the consensus appears to be that the two primary modes of financing income taxation and seigniorage are distortionary opinions however are divided as to their relative merits for example according to palivos and yip 1995 income tax financing is more detrimental to growth than seigniorage financing at the same time de gregorio 1993 suggests that as long as the rate of return on indexed bonds is substantially responsive to changes in the rate of inflation seigniorage financing of public expenditure is more growth reducing pecorino 1997 on the other hand prescribes a mix of both modes of financing despite these differences the above mentioned studies share a common characteristic the optimal mode of financing public expenditure in these studies is viewed as being not contingent on the stages of economic development accordingly there remains little understanding of the process by which public expenditure financing policies shape the prospect of economic growth for developing vis a vis developed countries the primary objective of this paper is to bridge this gap in the existing literature it is a long standing belief among development experts that outcomes of public expenditures and revenue policies are conditional on the state of an economy recent evidence supports such belief for example miller and russek 1997 suggest that for developing countries a deficit financed increase in public expenditure retards economic growth and a tax financed increase leads to higher growth for developed countries a deficit financed increase in government expenditure does not affect economic growth and a tax financed increase leads to a lower growth in light of these findings and in light of the theoretical controversy about the relative merits of seigniorage versus tax finance it is meaningful to ask the following question does the relative merit of seigniorage vis a vis tax financing of public expenditure depend on the stage of economic development this paper seeks an answer to this question using both theoretical and empirical analyses the theoretical framework developed in this paper shares many of the characteristics of the models proposed by espinosa vega and yip 1999 2000 and schreft and smith 1997 in particular we consider a two period overlapping generations model where agents are subjected to stochastic relocations shocks which act like shocks to their portfolio preferences these shocks have the same consequence as liquidity preference shocks as in diamond and dybvig 1983 and create a role for financial intermediaries who take deposits and make a portfolio decision on behalf of the households in addition there is a government that relies on two alternative sources of revenue seigniorage and tax revenue to finance its exogenously given expenditure sequence the results that we derive are shaped by the portfolio decision of the financial intermediaries in particular at each point in time financial intermediaries are required to allocate their portfolios between a nonproductive liquid asset money and a productive illiquid asset the illiquid asset takes the form of financing risky investment projects which in turn generate productive capital stock for the economy the financial intermediaries optimal portfolio allocation rules depend on the relative rate of return of the two available assets

how important is human capital for development evidence from immigrant earnings this paper offers new evidence on the sources of cross country income differences it exploits the idea that observing immigrant workers from different countries in the same labor market provides an opportunity to estimate their human capital endowments these estimates suggest that human and physical capital account for only a fraction of cross country income differences for countries below 40 of the us output per worker less than half of the output gap relative to the us is attributed to human and physical capital

identifying human capital externalities theory with applications the identification of aggregate human capital externalities is still not fully understood the existing mincerian approach confounds positive externalities with wage changes due to a downward sloping demand curve for human capital as a result the mincerian approach yields positive externalities even when wages equal marginal social products we propose an approach that identifies human capital externalities whether or not aggregate demand for human capital slopes downward another advantage of our approach is that it does not require estimates of the individual return to human capital applications to u s cities and states between 1970 and 1990 yield no evidence of significant average schooling externalities copyright 2006 wiley blackwell

entry exit and diffusion with learning by doing early entry has the advantage of higher revenues per unit of output early on late entry has the benefit of learning from the experience of earlier entrants and hence lower production costs the advantages are balanced off in a continuous time perfect foresight equilibrium competition generates s shaped diffusion and staggered entry and exit a monopolist will innovate less than a competitive industry but the innovation that he does do he will do sooner copyright 1989 by american economic association

the medium run effects of educational expansion evidence from a large school construction program in indonesia this paper studies the medium run consequences of an increase in the rate of accumulation of human capital in a developing country from 1974 to 1978 the indonesian government built over 61 000 primary schools the school construction program led to an increase in education among individuals who were young enough to attend primary school after 1974 but not among the older cohorts 2sls estimates suggest that an increase of 10 percentage points in the proportion of primary school graduates in the labor force reduced the wages of the older cohorts by 3 8 10 and increased their formal labor force participation by 4 7 i propose a two sector model as a framework to interpret these findings the results suggest that physical capital did not adjust to the faster increase in human capital

firm entry excess capacity and endogenous productivity abstract we show that sluggish firm entry causes productivity to vary endogenously in response to technology shocks the endogenous productivity effect is caused by incumbent firms utilizing excess capacity as entry adjusts we develop a nonparametric model of endogenous sunk costs and monopolistic competition to show that imperfect competition and dynamic entry are necessary and jointly sufficient conditions for endogenous productivity fluctuations quantitatively we show the endogenous productivity effect is as large as that from a traditional capital utilization effect

longevity and lifetime labor supply evidence and implications conventional wisdom suggests that increased life expectancy had a key role in causing a rise in investment in human capital i incorporate the retirement decision into a version of ben porath s 1967 model and find that a necessary condition for this causal relationship to hold is that increased life expectancy will also increase lifetime labor supply i then show that this condition does not hold for american men born between 1840 and 1970 and for the american population born between 1890 and 1970 the data suggest similar patterns in western europe i end by discussing the implications of my findings for the debate on the fundamental causes of long run growth

human capital and development accounting new evidence from wage gains at migration we use new data on the pre and postmigration wages of immigrants to the united states to measure wage gains at migration the average immigrant from a middle income or poor country increases their wage by a factor of two to three upon migration this wage gain is small relative to the underlying gap in gdp per worker in a development accounting framework this finding implies that switching countries accounts for 40 of cross country income differences while human capital accounts for 60 wage gains decline with education consistent with imperfect substitution between skill types we augment our analysis to allow for this possibility and bound the human capital share in development accounting to between one half and two thirds we also provide results on the importance of premigration sector of employment assimilation and skill transfer

education quality and development accounting this paper measures the role of quality adjusted years of schooling in accounting for cross country output per worker differences while data on years of schooling are readily available data on education quality are not i use the returns to schooling of foreign educated immigrants in the u s to measure the education quality of their birth country immigrants from developed countries earn higher returns than do immigrants from developing countries i show how to incorporate this measure of education quality into an otherwise standard development accounting exercise the main result is that cross country differences in education quality are roughly as important as cross country differences in years of schooling in accounting for output per worker differences raising the total contribution of education from 10 to 20 of output per worker differences copyright 2012 oxford university press

returns to education in india summary in india both men and women with more education live in households with greater consumption per capita yet aggregating across age cohorts and states an extra year of education brings male cohorts only 4 more consumption and provides no additional consumption for female cohorts this result is robust to 1 accounting for survey measurement error 2 different measures of household consumption and composition 3 allowing returns to differ by state and school quality and 4 age misreporting the only area with substantial returns is entering into regular wage work which still employs only a small fraction of the population

increasing social returns to human capital evidence from hungarian regions abstractincreasing social returns to human capital evidence from hungarian regions regional studies using individual level data from 2002 to 2008 this paper estimates augmented mincerian wage equations to analyze social returns to human capital in hungary the results show that geographically localized human capital externalities have a strong productivity effect on the wages of local workers but the strength of this effect falls short of the private returns a one year increase in the average schooling of the local labour force has a 3 average external effect on the wages of local workers

entry and exit over the industry life cycle this article presents a theoretical model of the rivalry between two firms in a market that undergoes a life cycle of growth and eventual decline firms in this market have the option of exit and reentry in the equilibrium for the growth phase high entry costs can act like high exit costs thereby conveying a commitment advantage for some parameter configurations this advantage is sufficient to enable a high costfirm to preempt its lower cost rival during the decline phase the smaller duopolist is able to outlast its rival provided that the smaller firm s reentry costs are positive

education growth and income inequality estimates of the effect of education on gdp the social return have been hard to reconcile with micro evidence on the private return to schooling we present a simple explanation combining two ideas imperfect substitution and endogenous skill biased technological progress and use cross country panel data on inequality and gdp to test these ideas a one year increase in the level of education reduces the private return by 2 percentage points consistent with katz murphy s 1992 elasticity of substitution we find no evidence for reversal of this initial effect as in acemoglu 2002 in the short run the social return equals the private return

the dynamic effects of currency union on trade abstract the response of trade to a monetary union is a dynamic process an empirical study of the european monetary union finds that the extensive margin of trade in new goods responded several years ahead of emu implementation and ahead of overall trade volume a dynamic rational expectations trade model shows that early entry of new firms in anticipation is explainable as a rational forward looking response to news the model helps identify which types of trading frictions are reduced by a currency union and shows how new entry can be affected by uncertainty about emu

how large are learning externalities the quantitative features of human capital externalities are not fully understood although static externalities are estimated in some studies learning externalities remain mostly unestimated by calibrating a growth model this article provides an estimate of learning externalities the calibration uses an equilibrium condition that equates private returns on physical capital and human capital the results suggest that sizable learning externalities exist even in a conservative setup the estimated social rate of return on human capital is 9 0 compared to the private rate of return 6 6 therefore human capital externalities are an important source of economic growth