efficient black markets abstract this paper investigates analytically the welfare effects of black market activities that firms undertake to evade taxes the desirability of a black market is linked to the attributes of the goods supplied by black market firms the analysis identifies cases where a black market reduces increases the distortionary impact of taxation on the allocation of resources across the goods that the government is attempting to tax leading to a welfare gain loss

entry mode organizational learning and r d in foreign affiliates evidence from japanese firms this paper develops hypotheses concerning the role of entry mode and experience based organizational learning as determinants of the r d intensity of foreign affiliates and tests these hypotheses on a sample of 420 japanese manufacturing affiliates abroad entry mode has a major impact on r d activities the r d intensities of acquired affiliates substantially exceed those in wholly owned greenfield affiliates while the r d intensities of minority owned ventures are higher if japanese parent firms lack strong r d capabilities at home for greenfield operations support is found for an incremental growth pattern of foreign r d as a function of organizational learning and affiliate capability building the results are consistent with the view that part of the explanation for japanese firms relative lack of involvement in overseas r d must be sought in their status as latecomers in the establishment of overseas manufacturing networks at the same time a number of japanese firms have actively used foreign acquisitions and joint ventures to gain access to overseas technology and to establish overseas r d capabilities at a faster pace copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

regime switching in the reactions of stock markets in saudi arabia to oil price variations the study revisits the stock oil nexus by examining the reactions of equity markets to oil price shocks at national and sectoral levels for saudi arabia in a time varying framework by employing the markov switching egarch model developed by henry 2009 journal of banking and finance 33 405 based on weekly data the findings reveal that the behaviour of all stock markets switches between an expansion regime and a recession regime with more persistence for the expansion state additionally influential international events associated with stock market drops are clearly identified in the recession regime furthermore there is evidence of asymmetric reactions of the equity index returns and the probabilities of transition from one state to another to oil price variations with heterogeneous impacts across sectors and regimes the stock markets are more sensitive to oil price decreases than to oil price increases although the evidence of relatively slight differences in some findings across weekdays the study allows investors and policymakers to understand well the interactions of stock sector markets vis a vis the world oil market in a regime switching framework in order to make the right decision as regards portfolio diversification and regulation of the stock markets

the management of multinational r d a neglected topic in international business research despite the growing involvement of multinational firms in foreign based r d during the past fifteen years little research has been done on why and how firms internationalize their r d and what effects it might have on firm competitiveness the present paper calls attention to this neglect and seeks to advance the management of multinational r d as an area of study for international business scholars to this end the paper first examines the key contributing factors to increased foreign r d investments among multinationals it then reviews the research literature to find out what we presently know about the management of multinational r d finally a research agenda is proposed to provide a foundation and stimulus for future investigations seven research directions are recommended with an emphasis on interdisciplinary inquiry and a focus on issues that have both theoretical and practical significance

the federal reserve s new operating procedures a post mortem abstract although money stock targeting has been the strategic focus of federal reserve policy since the mid 1970 s operating policy the tactics whereby the longer run strategy is implemented over short term intervals has been changed by the federal reserve at least twice over this period a particularly dramatic change in operating policy was announced by the federal reserve in october 1979 this paper provides empirical evidence that settles questions about the nature of this change and suggests that the new operating procedures may have contributed to the heightened interest rate volatility experienced over the 1979 to 1982 period

informal work networks we present a model of time allocation between formal and informal labour supply where workers learn of informal job opportunities from their peers in addition to formal income taxation and enforcement individuals labour supply decisions depend on the number of their peers with informal jobs and the strength of social ties workers allocate more time to informal activities when tax enforcement is lax and job information transmission is good more connected social networks e g wheel complete feature lower average income but higher average utility than poorly connected social networks e g star empty average income may be non monotonic in tax enforcement on presente un modele d allocation du temps entre l offre de travail formel et informel dans le cas ou les travailleurs apprennent l existence de possibilites de travail informel de leurs pairs en plus de dependre de l imposition des revenus formels et de la rigueur de ce processus les decisions des individus dans leur offre de travail dependent du nombre des pairs qui ont du travail informel et de la force des liens sociaux les travailleurs allouent plus de temps aux activites informelles quand l application de la loi fiscale est rel chee et que la transmission de l information a propos du travail informel est bonne des reseaux sociaux mieux connectes e g roue complet se traduisent par un revenu moyen plus bas mais par une utilite moyenne plus elevee que des reseaux sociaux plus pauvrement connectes e g etoile vide le revenu moyen peut avoir un lien non monotone a la nature de l application de la loi fiscale

normal mixture diffusion with uncertain volatility modelling short and long term smile effects this paper introduces a parameterization of the normal mixture diffusion nmd local volatility model that captures only a short term smile effect and then extends the model so that it also captures a long term smile effect we focus on the binomial nmd parameterization so called because it is based on simple and intuitive assumptions that imply the mixing law for the normal mixture log price density is binomial with more than two possible states for volatility the general parameterization is related to the multinomial mixing law in this parsimonious class of complete market models option pricing and hedging is straightforward since model prices and deltas are simple weighted averages of black scholes prices and deltas but they only capture a short term smile effect where leptokurtosis in the log price density decreases with term in accordance with the stylised facts of econometric analysis on ex post returns of different frequencies and the central limit theorem however the last part of the paper shows that longer term smile effects that arise from uncertainty in the local volatility surface can be modeled by a natural extension of the binomial nmd parameterization results are illustrated by calibrating the model to several euro us dollar currency option smile surfaces

new silicon valleys or a new species commoditization of knowledge work and the rise of knowledge services clusters this paper explores knowledge services clusters kscs as a distinct and increasingly important form of geographic cluster in particular in developing countries kscs are defined as geographic concentrations of lower cost skills serving global demand for increasingly commoditized knowledge services based on prior research on clusters and services offshoring and data from the offshoring research network orn major properties and contingencies of ksc growth are discussed and compared with both high tech clusters and low cost manufacturing clusters special emphasis is put on the ambivalent effect of commoditization of knowledge work on ksc growth it is proposed that kscs attract most client projects if service commoditization is medium whereas higher or lower commoditization either increases global competitive pressure or lowers demand and economies of scale and scope ksc attractiveness is further related to the perceived availability of skills at relatively low costs and cluster connectedness with client economies through corporate networks and professional communities findings not only advance current debates on clusters global services sourcing and the geography of knowledge production but also have important policy implications

a bivariate markov regime switching garch approach to estimate time varying minimum variance hedge ratios this article develops a new bivariate markov regime switching bekk generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch rs bekk garch model the model is a state dependent bivariate bekk garch model and an extension of gray s univariate generalized regime switching grs model to the bivariate case to solve the path dependency problem inherent in the bivariate regime switching bekk garch model we propose a recombining method for the covariance term in the conditional variance covariance matrix the model is applied to estimate time varying minimum variance hedge ratios for corn and nickel spot and futures prices out of sample point estimates of hedging portfolio variance show that compared to the state independent bekk garch model the rs bekk garch model improves out of sample hedging effectiveness for both corn and nickel data we perform white s 2000 data snooping reality check to test for predictive superiority of rs bekk garch over the benchmark model and find that the difference

optimal taxation in the presence of tax evasion expected utility versus prospect theory abstract it is now well known that the predictions of expected utility theory eut applied to tax evasion are quantitatively and qualitatively at variance with the evidence while prospect theory pt makes the correct predictions in this literature the tax rate is exogenous we endogenize the tax rate and require that a successful theory should explain jointly the facts on the tax rate tax gap and the level of government expenditure we find that the data is best described by taxpayers using pt and the government using standard utility theory eut the results are robust to several possible alternative specifications we discuss how our results have a bearing on the debate between liberalism versus paternalism in behavioral economics we also propose an alternative explanation based on the notion of context dependent preferences

on jumps in common stock prices and their impact on call option pricing the black scholes call option pricing model exhibits systematic empirical biases the merton call option pricing model which explicitly admits jumps in the underlying security return process may potentially eliminate these biases we provide statistical evidence consistent with the existence of lognormally distributed jumps in a majority of the daily returns of a sample of nyse listed common stocks however we find no operationally significant differences between the black scholes and merton model prices of the call options written on the sampled common stocks

the friedman rule in an overlapping generations model with nonlinear taxation and income misreporting this paper models a two period overlapping generations economy with money populated with individuals of different skills they face a nonlinear income tax schedule and can engage in tax evasion money serves two purposes the traditional one modeled through a money in the utility function it also facilitates tax evasion the main message of the paper is that income tax evasion in this framework leads to the violation of the friedman rule the paper also shows that even in the absence of tax evasion when optimality requires differential commodity taxation complementarity of real cash balances and labor supply does not guarantee the optimality of the friedman rule as a boundary solution an additional assumption is required

international research networks in pharmaceuticals structure and dynamics abstract knowledge production and scientific research have become increasingly more collaborative and international particularly in pharmaceuticals we analyze this tendency in general and tie formation in international research networks on the country level in particular based on a unique dataset of scientific publications related to pharmaceutical research and applying social network analysis we find that both the number of countries and their connectivity increase in almost all disease group specific networks the cores of the networks consist of high income oecd countries and remain rather stable over time using network regression techniques to analyze the network dynamics our results indicate that accumulative advantages based on connectedness and multi connectivity are positively related to changes in the countries collaboration intensity whereas various indicators on similarity between countries do not allow for unambiguous conclusions

fishing upstream firm innovation strategy and university research alliances this paper examines how innovation strategy influences firms level of involvement with university based research our results suggest that firms with internal r d strategies more heavily weighted toward exploratory activities allocate a greater share of their r d resources to exploratory university research and develop deeper multifaceted relationships with their university research partners in addition firms with more centralized internal r d organizations spend a greater share of their r d dollars on exploratory research conducted at universities in contrast to other external partners we find evidence suggesting that universities are preferred when the firm perceives potential conflicts over intellectual property 2007 elsevier b v all rights reserved

innovation performance of the us american and european electricity supply industry abstract using a production function approach based on cobb douglas this analysis relates r d efforts of 32 electric utilities on both sides of the atlantic to their performance in terms of labour productivity we find that higher r d levels generally have a positive impact on revenues however only in the sub sample of 16 electricity suppliers in europe this effect is significant knowledge spill over effects can be estimated for the us american sub sample since us utilities have bundled their r d efforts in a centralized research institution and have to report that data our analysis reveals though that collaborative research efforts do not lead to positive spill overs at the assumption of a time delay of one year

transaction cost economics the comparative contracting perspective abstract gregory dow s assessment of transaction cost economics is both thoughtful and provocative although we agree on many matters these remarks focus on our differences i begin with a brief sketch of the framework out of which transaction cost economics operates i then examine the purported bias of transaction cost economics in favor of capital managed as against labor managed firms and my alleged failure to deal with downward opportunism dow s claim that transaction cost economics is given to functionalist excesses is considered next concluding remarks follow

the optimal elasticity of taxable income abstract the strength of the behavioral response to a tax rate change depends on the environment individuals operate in and may be manipulated by instruments controlled by the government we first derive a measure of the social benefit to affecting this elasticity the paper then examines this effect in the solution to the optimal income taxation problem when such an instrument is available first in a general model and then in an example when the government chooses the income tax base

firm capabilities technological dynamism and the internationalisation of innovation a behavioural approach we develop a behavioural framework of bounded rational decision making under uncertainty to analyse the role of technological dynamism in the firm s environment for its decision to internationalise innovation applying prospect theory we argue that technological uncertainty in the firm s environment affects its risk preferences differently depending on its technological capabilities a key prediction is that firms with low capabilities will internationalise innovation when faced by technological uncertainty while firms with high capabilities will concentrate their innovation at the home base we also argue that our behavioural approach based on prospect theory is not a stand alone programme but benefits from the integration with traditional concepts in ib in particular we make a case that organisational measures fostering absorptive capacity such as intensive personnel exchange between headquarters and subsidiaries can help to attenuate the high capability firms tendency to concentrate innovation at the home base when faced by high uncertainty we corroborate the predictions of our framework based on data from the german part of the community innovation survey

monetary and fiscal policy switching with time varying volatilities abstract this paper extends the ongoing literature on regime change the extension allows time variation in disturbance variances of interest rate rules for monetary policy and tax rules for fiscal policy that switch stochastically between two regimes we achieve superior modelings of monetary and fiscal policy rules with quarterly us data

indirect tax evasion and product efficiency though a number of papers have considered the issues of income tax evasion few have considered indirect tax evasion one of the exceptions is a paper which considers the very special case of a risk averse monopolist producer the present paper addresses the issue of indirect tax evasion in competitive markets evasion in such a market is shown to be associated with production inefficiency the results also suggest that laffer type curves could arise due to evasion

volatility persistence and stock valuations some empirical evidence using garch summary in this paper issues of volatility persistence and the changing risk premium in the stock market are investigated using the garch estimation technique we get a point estimate of the index of relative risk aversion of 4 5 and confirm the existence of changing equity premiums in the us during 1962 1985 the persistence of shocks to the stock return volatility is so high that the data cannot reject a non stationary volatility process specification the results of this paper are consistent with malkiel and pindyck s hypothesis that it is the unforseen rise ini the investment uncertainty during 1974 that causes the market to plunge

the limits of r d internationalization and the importance of local initiatives turkey as a critical case the growth of r d in east asia has triggered the notion of a new innovation geography where r d is no longer a privilege of the traditional oecd countries what does this mean for mid sized emerging economies without the scale advantages and bargaining power of india or china this paper uses turkey as a case to examine the continual unevenness of international r d investments by analyzing opportunities and limitations for local initiatives in the telecommunications pharmaceutical and automotive industries the paper finds that active private capital a sufficient scale of production and focused public policies are needed to attract international r d

distributional implications of joint tax evasion both buyers and sellers of goods and services may benefit from letting their economic transactions go unrecorded for tax purposes the supplier reduces his tax burden by underreporting income and sales whereas the consumer may gain from buying a non taxed lower priced product the distributional implications of such joint tax evasion depend on the amounts evaded on where the evaders on both sides of the market are found in the income distribution and on how the financial gain is split our empirical investigations show that the tax evasion controlled estimate of income inequality in norway exhibits more income dispersion than official estimates

evading auditing and taxing the equity compliance tradeoff tax evasion and auditing are analyzed in a model of linear income taxation taxpayers minimize expected tax payments including penalty for underreporting while the tax administration sets its audit policy to maximize expected net revenue under the restriction of only two audit rates per class of taxpayers given the reaction of taxpayers and tax administration we derive the optimal income tax that the government should adopt to maximize social welfare there are several classes of taxpayers each characterized by a given distribution of pretax income and specific audit policy parameters

market versus technology drive in r d internationalization four different patterns of managing research and development research and development are subject to different location drivers the analysis of 1021 r d units each distinguished by its main orientation towards either research or development work reveals that research is concentrated in only five regions worldwide while development is more globally dispersed our research is based on 290 research interviews and database research in 81 technology intensive multinational companies we identify two principal location rationales access to markets and access to science as the principal determinants for four trends that lead to four archetypes of r d internationalization national treasure market driven technology driven and global their organizational evolution is characterized by four trends the model is illustrated with short cases of international r d organization at kubota schindler xerox and glaxo wellcome differences in rd separation seems to contradict this trend we argue that this need not be the case for there are good reasons to maintain some independence between research and development

changes in regime and the term structure a note abstract in a recent paper in this journal james hamilton 1988 argues that anomalous behaviour of interest rate data in the u s can be accommodated within the expectations model if allowance is made for the possibility of stochastic changes of regime but close examination of his data reveals that an inappropriate series for the yield on ten year bonds was used with more appropriate data his finding of a switch of regime over the period 1979 1982 appears to be robust the stochastic regime switching model however is no longer able to reconcile this data with the expectations model of the term structure

monetary fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus abstract increases in government spending trigger substitution effects both inter and intra temporal and a wealth effect the ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate this paper estimates markov switching policy rules for the united states and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior when the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new keynesian model government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized the paper reports the model s predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the american recovery and reinvestment act s implied path for government spending under alternative monetary fiscal policy combinations

tax evasion and the marginal cost of public funds tax evasion and deadweight loss have similar implications for the rules of public finance the optimal mix of taxes can be derived from the minimization of the sum of aggregate deadweight loss and aggregate cost of tax evasion similarly the marginal cost of public funds includes allowances for marginal deadweight loss and marginal cost of tax evasion per dollar of public revenue acquired

tobin tax and trading volume tightening a reassessment this article extends the previous literature on the tobin tax and financial transaction tax we investigate the linkages between trading volumes and transaction costs using both a linear and a nonlinear methodology in stark contrast with previous studies we consider the possibility that our model may exhibit threshold effects or regime dependency by estimating a markov switching ms model this paper is the first contribution to specify the trading volume of the forex through different low and high volatility regimes our empirical investigation looks at the eur usd currency market our results show evidence of nonlinear patterns for trading volumes and transaction costs on the forex the tobin tax would not have a monotonic impact on trading activity across market conditions however the change in elasticity between low and high volatility regimes is slight 0 17 versus 0 21 we may suggest that the low variance regime might be the fundamentalist regime and the high variance regime lower tobin tax elasticity might be the chartist regime this study is a first step towards understanding which categories of agents dominate the market under the various market regimes and how they would react to the introduction of a tax this means our results are consistent with tobin s underlying thinking 1974 1978 1996 since a tax would penalize chartists more than fundamentalists it could reduce exchange rate volatility

towards a theory of the direct indirect tax mix despite the fact that all developed economies levy broadly based indirect taxes alongside direct taxes little theory is devoted to explaining the direct indirect tax mix our purpose is to show that if different taxes have different evasion characteristics some optimal tax mix emerges naturally assuming that only income tax can be evaded and focusing on a two class economy we analyse the case for supplementing optimal non linear income taxation with commodity taxation and we develop conditions under which the latter should or should not be uniform

the globalisation of technology what remains of the product cycle model this paper reexamines two hypotheses associated with earlier versions of the product cycle model the first hypothesis that innovations are almost always located in the home country of the parent company is rejected on the basis of evidence drawn from one hundred years of u s patent office data the second hypothesis that the international dispersion of activity is led by technology leaders is historically valid however over the last twenty years technology leaders have been ahead instead in the globalization of technology that is in developing internal international networks to exploit the locationally differentiated potential of foreign centers of excellence c 1995 academic press inc copyright 1995 by oxford university press

estimation of the optimal futures hedge standard approaches to designing a futures hedge often suffer from two major problems first they focus only on minimizing risk so no account is taken of the impact on expected return second in estima ting the hedge ratio no allowance is made for time variation in the distribution of cash and futures price changes this paper describes a technique for estimating the optimal futures hedge that corrects these problems and illustrates its use in hedging treasury bonds with t bond futures copyright 1988 by mit press

technological internationalisation in the electro technical industry a cross company comparison of patenting patterns 1986 2000 abstract this paper addresses the issue of r d internationalisation of two multinationals in the electro technical industry ge and abb by means of a patent data analysis the overwhelming majority of both companies r d activities are concentrated in western europe and north america the locational overlap between the two firms activities is small these results are consistent with findings from earlier studies that 1 there is little evidence to suggest that the production of technology is globalised in a general sense and 2 that tapping knowledge from an industry s global lead location plays a very limited role in foreign r d investments

tax evasion fiscal competition and economic integration abstract this paper examines the implications of tax evasion for fiscal competition and tax harmonization policies in an economic union first for symmetric countries it proves that the equilibrium values of the tax and audit rates are less than optimal tax harmonization alone will also lead to a less than optimal audit rate second for asymmetric countries the paper shows that integration may turn an honest country into an evading one it argues that tax harmonization alone may be a bad policy in that it can make both countries worse off it may also cause an otherwise honest country to turn to evasion

monetary and fiscal policy switching a growing body of evidence finds that policy reaction functions vary substantially over different periods in the united states this paper explores how moving to an environment in which monetary and fiscal regimes evolve according to a markov process can change the impacts of policy shocks in one regime monetary policy follows the taylor principle and taxes rise strongly with debt in another regime the taylor principle fails to hold and taxes are exogenous an example shows that a unique bounded non ricardian equilibrium exists in this environment a computational model illustrates that because agents decision rules embed the probability that policies will change in the future monetary and tax shocks always produce wealth effects when it is possible that fiscal policy will be unresponsive to debt at times active monetary policy like a taylor rule in one regime is not sufficient to insulate the economy against tax shocks in that regime and it can have the unintended consequence of amplifying and propagating the aggregate demand effects of tax shocks the paper also considers the implications of policy switching for two empirical issues

internationalization of r d a survey of some recent research this paper surveys the current state of the art concerning the management and economic impact of geographically decentralized research and development r d in multinational companies mncs this line of research has recently begun to attract renewed interest in reflection of not only critical new trends regarding the nature and conditions of technological change but also significant developments in the realm of economic and managerial theory the aim of this paper is first to outline the empirical and theoretical background and perspective of this new research agenda second it gives a summary and overview of prior research in the area third it outlines the content and structure of a number of recent studies based on these studies the paper identifies a number of trends and implications in terms of policy issues and critical areas for future research

regime switching correlation hedging this paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of commodity futures when the correlations of spot and futures returns are subject to multi state regime shifts an independent switching dynamic conditional correlation garch is dcc which is free from the problems of path dependency and recombining is applied to model multi regime switching correlations the results of hedging exercises indicate that state dependent is dcc outperforms state independent dcc garch and three state is dcc exhibits superior hedging effectiveness illustrating importance of modeling higher state switching correlations for dynamic futures hedging

new concepts and trends in international r d organization abstract the globalization of markets the regionalization of technical and scientific expertise and the rapid change in technologies are forcing technology based companies to continuously adjust their r d organization our study of 33 companies reveals five different types of r d organization in multinational companies mnc we classified r d organizations according to the dispersion of r d activities and the degree of cooperation between individual r d units and identified the ethnocentric centralized the geocentric centralized the polycentric decentralized the r d hub and the integrated r d network organization five trends of organizational change among these forms of international r d organization were identified 1 stronger orientation of r d activities towards international markets and knowledge centers 2 establishment of tightly coordinated listening posts 3 strengthening and reinforcement of foreign r d sites 4 increased integration of decentralized r d units and 5 tighter coordination and recentralization of r d activities at fewer know how centers the search for the optimal balance between coordination and control is reflected by hybrid structures and intermediary configurations detected in some of the investigated companies since effective changes in behavioral orientation require considerable time successful quantum leaps in multinational r d organization are next to impossible

optimal taxation with costly enforcement and evasion abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between optimal taxation and optimal tax enforcement a central question concerns the extent to which revenue should be raised through higher tax rates which distort behavior or greater enforcement which distorts behavior and also entails direct resource costs in the models examined some expenditure on enforcement may be optimal despite its resource cost its distortionary effect and the availability of other revenue sources having no enforcement costs rules for optimal tax rates and enforcement expenditures are derived which also indicate the marginal cost of government funds and optimal enforcement priorities for a tax collection agency

technology sourcing versus technology exploitation an analysis of us foreign direct investment flows the traditional paradigm of foreign direct investment fdi suggests that fdi is undertaken principally to exploit some firm specific advantage in a foreign country which provides a locational advantage to the investor however recent theoretical work suggests a model of fdi in which the motivation is not to exploit existing technological advantages in a foreign country but to access such technology and transfer it from the host economy to the investing multinational corporation via spillover effects this paper tests the technology sourcing versus technology exploiting hypotheses for a panel of sectoral fdi flows between the united states and major oecd nations over a 15 year period the research makes use of patel and vega s research policy 28 145 55 1999 taxonomy of sectors which are likely a priori to exhibit technology sourcing and exploiting behaviour respectively while there is evidence that fdi flows into the united states are attracted to r and d intensive sectors very little support is found for the technology sourcing hypothesis either for inward or outward fdi flows the results suggest that in aggregate firm specific ownership effects remain powerful determinants of fdi flows

income tax compliance in a principal agent framework previous analyses have modeled income tax evasion as a portfolio problem deriving the optimal consumption of the risky asset unreported income under the assumption of a fixed probability of detection the purpose of this paper is to examine some of these issues in tax compliance starting from a different set of assumptions in particular we compare alternative audit policies to the standard random audit policy we focus on an audit cutoff policy in which an agent triggers an audit if his or her reported income is too low and is not audited if reported income is sufficiently high this paper establishes two major results first random audit rules are weakly dominated by audit cutoff rules it can be shown given lump sum taxes and fines that these audit cutoff rules are the least cost policies which induce truthful reporting of income second the dominance of audit cutoff rules over random audit rules holds for lump sum as well as proportional taxation in fact the equilibrium consequences of the two are equivalent

on indirect tax evasion abstract this paper examines some aspects of the decision to evade indirect taxes in the context of a monopolistic firm in particular the degree of interdependence between the tax shifting and the tax evasion decisions is analyzed both in the case of a fixed and of a variable probability of being detected it is shown that in the first case the shifting and evasion decisions are separable while in the second case this is no longer true in this latter case a rule according to which the probability decreases with larger declarations can be said to be an efficient one the conditions for a firm s becoming a completely submerged one are derived and finally direct and indirect tax evasion are compared it is shown that for decreasing risk aversion an indirect tax is evaded as a percentage less than a profit tax of equal yield

budget balance welfare and the growth rate dynamic scoring of the long run government budget this paper determines conditions under which a reduction in the role of government either through a tax cut alone or together with accompanying expenditure cuts will improve long run government fiscal balance for a ceteris paribus cut in the income tax rate to improve long run government balance the intertemporal elasticity of substitution must exceed unity a tax cut balanced by an expenditure cut is likely to improve the long run balance even if it does not improve the short run balance the relationship between improving the long run fiscal balance and economic welfare is also analyzed

on jump processes in the foreign exchange and stock markets exchange rates exhibit systematic discontinuities even after allowingfor conditional heteroskedasticity in the diffusion process the results are much more significant in theforeign exchange market than in the stock market which suggests differences in the structure of these markets finally this jump component is shown to explain some of the empirically observed mispricings in the currency options market the objective of this article is to analyze and compare the empirical distribution of returns in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market there are a number of reasons why a better understanding of the stochastic processes driving prices in these markets would be useful many financial models rely heavily on the assumption of a particular stochastic process while relatively little attention is paid to the empirical fit of the postulated distribution as a result models like option pricing models are applied indiscriminately to various markets such as the stock market and the foreign exchange market when the underlying processes may be fundamentally different the foreign exchange market for instance is characterized by active exchange rate man

a markov model of heteroskedasticity risk and learning in the stock market abstract we examine a variety of models in which the variance of a portfolio s excess return depends on a state variable generated by a first order markov process a model in which the state is known to economic agents is estimated it suggests that the mean excess return moves inversely with the level of risk we then estimate a model in which agents are uncertain of the state the estimates indicate that agents are consistently surprised by high variance periods so there is a negative correlation between movements in volatility and in excess returns

rational expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime an investigation of the term structure of interest rates abstract this paper is of interest both for its methodological contribution of new tools for analyzing rational expectations models and for its substantive conclusions concerning the term structure of interest rates during the monetary experiment of october 1979 the paper studies systems subject to changes in regime interpreted here as occasional discrete shifts in the parameters governing the time series behavior of exogenous economic variables the specification is shown to be quite tractable both theoretically and empirically the technique is used to analyze yields on three month treasury bills and ten year treasury bonds during 1962 to 1987 a constant parameter linear model for short term rates is shown to be inconsistent both with the univariate time series properties of short rates and with the observed bivariate relation between long and short rates under the expectations hypothesis of the term structure an alternative nonlinear model that admits the possibility of changes in regime affords a much better description of the univariate process for short rates moreover the cross equation restrictions implied by the expectations hypothesis of the term structure are consistent with the nonlinear specification indeed the residuals of the restricted relation have a standard error of only 0 8 basis points this is a third less than that of a completely unrestricted linear regression of long rates on short rates and compares with an unconditional standard deviation of long rates of 142 basis points i conclude that once the recognition by bond traders of changes in regime is taken into account the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates holds up fairly well for these data

testing for real effects of monetary policy regime shifts the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics has forced economists to think about macroeconomic policy in terms of alternative policy rules or regimes huizinga and mishkin 1986 for example have argued recently that monetary policy has important effects on the ex ante real rate of interest and as evidence they cite apparent changes in the stochastic properties of the real rate coinciding with major shifts in monetary policy regimes more specifically they claim that in the post war period the real rate process in the united states shifted in october 1979 the month the fed changed operating procedures and in october 1982 when the fed deemphasized monetary aggregates mishkin 1986 has argued that these results suggest monetary policy not fiscal deficits bears responsibility for high u s real interest rates in the early 1980s because an understanding of the impact of monetary policy shifts on real interest rates is important for many issues in macroeconomics suggested methods for detecting real rate shifts deserve careful scrutiny the method employed by huizinga and mishkin 1986 tests for shifts in a projection equation of the expost real rate on a set of information variables such as the nominal interest rate and past inflation this projection equation approach is straightforward to apply and therefore potentially of use in testing a variety of macroeconomic hypotheses such as the neutrality of money for the projection equation approach to be valid it is desirable that it exhibit shifts if and only if the true real rate generating process has shifted the purpose of this paper is to show that changes in the real rate process while sufficient to

the effect of a fiscal squeeze on tax enforcement evidence from a natural experiment in china abstract this paper investigates the impact of the abolition of the agricultural taxes in 2005 across china on county governments incentives for tax enforcement i show that the revenue loss of county governments was largely offset by tougher tax enforcement the incentive for vat enforcement can be weakened however if the county 1 receives a lower share of total vat revenues 2 has a broader vat tax base or 3 has more abundant sources of revenue from land sales these findings suggest that incentives of local governments can be vital to tax enforcement and to the tax capacity of a country

geographical amplitude in the international generation of technology present situation and business determinants abstract building on a rich dataset with information on 65 000 firms and 465 000 european patent applications from 1978 to 2000 this paper addresses the geographical amplitude of international technology generation first we show that the number of countries hosting international technological activities is increasing the usa and some developing nations benefit from this internationalisation conversely although europe as a whole still plays a leading role in the encouragement of foreign technological activities some european countries such as germany and the uk appear to be losing their technological appeal second we verify that multinational corporations mncs have increased the geographical amplitude of their technological activities in fact the mean number of countries in which mncs internationalised technology generation has doubled during the 23 years we have analyzed third we address the business characteristics that explain this phenomenon a negative binomial regression suggests that internationalisation is higher in mncs showing a greater technological diversification a higher volume of technological activity a wider presence in international markets and more experience in the international generation of technology finally american corporations and regardless of the home country those firms whose main technological fields are in chemistry pharmaceuticals or electronics present the highest geographical dispersion of their international technological activities

tax evasion and optimal environmental taxes abstract this paper introduces a new argument to the debate about the role of environmental taxes in modern tax systems some environmental taxes particularly taxes on gasoline or electricity are more difficult to evade than taxes on labor or income when the tax base is shifted in a revenue neutral manner toward these environmental taxes the result is a net reduction in the amount of tax evasion using a carbon tax as a motivating example the tax evasion effect is shown to sharply reduce the welfare cost of controlling emissions a simple computable general equilibrium model suggests that the impact of considering tax evasion can be large costs are lowered by 28 in the united states by 89 in china and by 97 in india in countries with high levels of pre existing tax evasion a carbon tax will pay for itself through improvements in the efficiency of the tax system

measuring volatility persistence in the presence of sudden changes in the variance of canadian stock returns it is well known that volatility persistence is overestimated if regime shifts are not accounted for in the standard garch model this research detects time periods of sudden changes in variance using the iterated cumulated sums of squares icss algo rithm using weekly data for the canadian stock market indicates that after accounting for endogenously determined volatility shifts in the garch model the estimated persistence in volatility is significantly reduced this casts some doubt on previous findings that volatility in financial markets is highly persistent the findings have impor tant implications for investors and financial market participants jel classification g1

markov switching and stochastic volatility diffusion models of short term interest rates this article empirically compares the markov switching and stochastic volatility diffusion models of the short rate the evidence supports the markov switching diffusion model estimates of the elasticity of volatility parameter for single regime models unanimously indicate an explosive volatility process whereas the markov switching models estimates are reasonable itis found that either markov switching or stochastic volatility but not both is needed to adequately fit the data a robust conclusion is that volatility depends on the level of the short rate finally the markov switching model is the best for forecasting a technical contribution of this article is a presentation of quasi maximum likelihood estimation techniques for the markov switching stochastic volatility model

imperfect observability of emissions and second best emission and output taxes abstract this paper studies the second best tax design problem when emissions are publicly unobservable but can be discovered through costly monitoring a representative firm in industry chooses its emissions and declarations to maximize its expected profits the paper shows the pigouvian rule of equating the marginal private benefit of emissions in production to the marginal social damage of emissions is modified to take account of the resource costs of monitoring and enforcement emissions from different sectors must be taxed at different rates every polluting good must face an effective emission tax that is less than the full marginal social damage of emissions emission taxes do not reflect standard optimal tax objectives output taxes have a pigouvian role so that the targeting principle fails

tax compliance and firms strategic interdependence we focus on a relatively neglected area of the tax compliance literature in economics the behaviour of firms we examine the impact of alternative audit rules on receipts from a tax on profits in the context of strategic interdependence of firms the enforcement policy can have an effect on firms behaviour in two dimensions their market decisions as well as their compliance behaviour an appropriate design of the enforcement policy can thus have a double dividend by manipulating firms in both dimensions

were there regime switches in u s monetary policy working paper 2004 14 june 2004 abstract a multivariate model identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances is confronted with u s data since 1959 the best fit is with a model that allows time variation in structural disturbance variances only among models that also allow for changes in equation coefficients the best fit is for a model that allows coefficients to change only in the monetary policy rule that model allows switching among three main regimes and one rarely and briefly occurring regime the three main regimes correspond roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed and the differences in policy behavior are substantively interesting though statistically ill determined the estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 80s but was also important sporadically in the 70s the changes in regime were essential neither to the rise in inflation in the 70s nor to its decline in the 80s jel classification e52 e47 c53 key words counterfactuals lucas critique policy rule monetary targeting simultaneity volatility model comparison i the debate over monetary policy change in an influential paper clarida gali and gertler 2000 cgg presented evidence that us monetary policy changed between the 1970 s and the 1980 s indeed that in the 70 s it was drastically worse they found that the policy rule apparently followed in the 70 s was one that when embedded in most stochastic general equilibrium models would imply non uniqueness of the equilibrium and hence vulnerability of the economy to sunspot fluctuations of arbitrarily large size their estimated policy rule for the later period on the other hand eliminated this indeterminacy these results are a possible explanation of the volatile and rising inflation of the 70 s and of its subsequent decline the cgg analysis has two important weaknesses one is that it fails to account for stochastic volatility us macroeconomic variables and particularly the federal funds rate have gone through periods of tranquility and of agitation with forecast error variances varying greatly from period to period ignoring such variation does not lead to inconsistent estimates of model parameters when the forecasting equations themselves are constant but it strongly biases toward a finding of changed parameters tests of the stability of the forecasting equations the other weakness is that the cgg analysis rests on powerful and implausible identifying assumptions they require that we accept that the response of the monetary authority to expected future inflation and output does not depend on the recent history of inflation money growth or output it is hard to understand why this should be so especially in the 70 s when monetarism was a prominent theme in policy debates congress was requiring reports from the fed of projected time paths of monetary aggregates and financial markets were reacting sensitively to weekly money supply numbers the requirement for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in dynamic models is that the monetary policy rule show a more than unit response of interest rates to the sum of the logs of all nominal variables that appear on the right hand side of the reaction function if we force a particular measure of expected future inflation to proxy for all the nominal variables that actually appear independently in the reaction function we are bound to get distorted conclusions on the one hand because expected future inflation will be a noisy measure of the full set of nominal influences on policy we might get downward bias in our estimates from the usual errorsin variables effect on the other hand to the extent that expected future inflation like most expected future values shows less variation than current nominal variables we could find a mistaken scaling up of coefficients

a markov model of switching regime arch in this article i present a new approach to model more realistically the variability of financial time series i develop a markov arch model that incorporates the features of both hamilton s switching regime model and engle s autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity arch model to examine the issue of volatility persistence in the monthly excess returns of the three month treasury bill the issue can be resolved by taking into account occasional shifts in the asymptotic variance of the markov arch process that cause the spurious persistence of the volatility process i identify two periods during which there is a regime shift the 1974 2 1974 8 period associated with the oil shock and the 1979 9 1982 8 period associated with the federal reserve s policy change the variance approached asymptotically in these two episodes is more than 10 times as high as the asymptotic variance for the remainder of the sample i conclude that regime shifts have a greater impact on the properties of the data and i ca

how firms innovate through r d internationalization an s curve hypothesis abstract this article examines the effects of r d internationalization and organizational slack on innovation performance we suggest that there is an s shaped relationship between r d internationalization and innovation performance innovation performance increases in the decentralization stage decreases in the transition stage and increases again in the recentralization stage in addition organizational slack is hypothesized to have a negative moderating effect on the s shaped relationship longitudinal data on 210 taiwanese firms in the information technology sector during a 10 year period is collected to test the hypotheses the findings support our prediction managerial implications and future research directions are discussed

mean reversion in equilibrium asset prices this paper demonstrates that negative serial correlation in long horizon stock returns is consistent with an equilibrium model of asset pricing when investors display only a moderate desire to smooth their consumption commonly used measures of mean reversion in stock prices calculated from historical returns data nearly always lie within a 60 percent confidence interval of the median of the monte carlo distributions implied by the authors equilibrium model from this evidence the authors conclude that the degree of serial correlation in the data could plausibly have been generated by their model copyright 1990 by american economic association

tax evasion and optimal commodity taxation abstract this paper incorporates tax evasion into ramsey s optimal taxation problem it provides i a precise and intuitive characterization of the tradeoff between optimal tax rates and audit probabilities and ii a modified version of the ramsey equation it also proves that in the presence of tax evasion a the well known requirement of proportional reduction in compensated demands b the traditional result on the optimality of uniform taxation when income is exogenous and c the equivalence of wage and uniform commodity taxes are no longer valid

large firms in the production of the world s technology an important case of non globalisation us patenting by 686 of the world s largest manufacturing firms shows that their share of the world s production of technology is less than their share of r d activities and varies greatly amongst sectors in most cases the technological activities of these large firms are concentrated in their home country the characteristics of which influence the volume and trends in their technological activities much more strongly then the international component of these activities at the same time these large firms are major elements in the volume and the pattern of sectoral specializations in their home countries technological activities

persistence in variance structural change and the garch model this article examines the persistence of the variance as measured by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model in stock return data in particular we investigate the extent to which persistence in variance may be overstated because of the existence of and failure to take account of deterministic structural shifts in the model both an analysis of daily stock return data and a monte carlo simulation experiment confirm the hypothesis that garch measures of persistence in variance are sensitive to this type of model misspecification

modelling the conditional volatility of commodity index futures as a regime switching process commodity index futures offer a versatile tool for gaining different forms of exposure to commodity markets volatility is a critical input in many of these applications this paper examines issues in modelling the conditional variance of futures returns based on the goldman sachs commodity index gsci given that commodity markets tend to be choppy webb 1987 a general econometric model is proposed that allows for abrupt changes or regime shifts in volatility transition probabilities which vary explicitly with observable fundamentals such as the basis garch dynamics seasonal variations and conditional leptokurtosis the model is applied to daily futures returns on the gsci over 1992 1997 the results show clear evidence of regime shifts in conditional mean and volatility once regime shifts are accounted for garch effects are minimal consistent with the theory of storage returns are more likely to switch to the high variance state when the basis is negative than when the basis is positive the regime switching model also performs well in forecasting the daily volatility compared to standard garch models without regime switches the model should be of interest to sophisticated traders who base their trading strategies on short term volatility movements managed commodity funds interested in hedging an underlying diversified portfolio of commodities and investors of options and other derivatives tied to gsci futures contracts copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

samurai accountant a theory of auditing and plunder a risk neutral principal wishes to exact a payment from a risk neutral agent whose wealth he does not know but may verify through a costly auditing procedure we characterize efficient schemes for the principal when he is allowed to choose schedules for preaudit and postaudit payments and audit probabilities subject to the constraint that only monetary incentives can be used and that the principal may never make a net payment to the agent the main results are that efficient schemes involve preaudit payments which are increasing in the agent s wealth audit probabilities are decreasing in the agent s wealth and also satisfy certain constraints as equalities in general such schemes involve stochastic auditing and rebates after an audit in this paper we analyse the problem of a principal extracting wealth from an agent who is reluctant to part with it and is also better informed than the principal as to the amount he owns we assume that the principal has a costly means of discovering the agent s

long and short term interest rates in a risky world abstract the paper develops and tests a general equilibrium model in which variability or risk affects the choice of portfolios our measures of variability include only the variability of unanticipated growth in monetary and non monetary aggregates and our tests use data ending with the change in federal reserve procedures in october 1979 we find that increased variability of unanticipated money growth raises demands for debt and money and reduces the demand for real capital interest rates on both short and long term debt rise by a risk premium we estimate the size of the risk premium before and after the october 1979 change and we show that the change in federal reserve procedures moved the economy to a less efficient point

voting over taxes the case of tax evasion this paper studies majority voting on taxes when tax evasion is possible we characterize the voting equilibrium where the agent with median taxed income is pivotal since the ranking of true incomes does not necessarily correspond to the ranking of taxed incomes the decisive voter can differ from the median income receiver in this case we find unconventional patterns of redistribution e g from the middle class to the poor and the rich