not all rivals look alike estimating an equilibrium model of the release date timing game a very serious game of strategy is at work a cross between chess and chicken which studio distribution chiefs play year round but with increasing intensity during the summer and holiday release period new york times december 6 1999 hubris hubris if you only think about your own business you think i ve got a good story department i ve got a good marketing department we re going to go out and do this and you don t think that everybody else is thinking the same way in a given weekend in a year you ll have five movies open and there s certainly not enough people to go around joe roth chairman of walt disney studios answering a question about the large number of major movies opening within days of each other los angeles times december 31 1996 i introduction the number of americans who go to the movies varies dramatically over the course of the year and sometimes more than doubles within a period of two weeks at the same time the first week accounts for almost 40 of the box office revenues of the average movie the combination of these two facts makes the timing of launching a new movie a major focus of attention for distributors of movies with virtually no subsequent price competition the movie s release date is one of the main short run vehicles by which studios compete with each other in this paper i develop and estimate a model of discrete games which allows me to analyze this release date timing game most empirical industry studies focus on price and quantity competition taking other product characteristics as given in many industries however prices play a very small role and competition is channeled through other product attributes the entertainment industry is a prime example competition among movies television programs or broadway shows is on nonmonetary product attributes such as content advertising and time therefore understanding competition in such industries requires a model that endogenizes some of these product attributes especially those that can be changed in the short run this paper provides a framework in which release decisions can be endogenized and nonprice competition can be analyzed the absence of price competition is useful because it allows the focus of the analysis to be on the timing dimension without relying on assumptions about the nature of the postrelease price competition 1 together with the frequent timing decisions associated with different movies this makes the motion picture industry quite attractive for empirical analysis of the timing game this industry however is not the only example in which timing decisions play a central role similar timing considerations are also important in the release decisions of books compact disks and other new products as well as in the scheduling decisions of major events television programs flight schedules and promotional sales 2 when taking on a new project distributors of movies typically plan for a friday release which falls within a relatively short window of time carefully chosen to match the type of the movie this makes the choice of the release date a very discrete one the exact friday within the season is generally determined by a strategic timing game played among distributors before each release season distributors scramble to release their movies on big holiday weekends when demand is high when doing so each distributor tries to release on the attractive holiday weekend and at the same time to deter competitors from doing the same the extent to which distributors are successful in doing so largely depends on the quality of the movies at their disposal and on the way they can compete with movies released by other studios thus modeling this timing game must account for the asymmetries among movies and for the variation in these asymmetries across release seasons specifically i develop and estimate a sequential move game with private information i assume that the observed release date decisions are the equilibrium outcome of such a game

building new plants or entering by acquisition firm heterogeneity and entry barriers in the u s cement industry i estimate a model of entry for the cement industry that considers two options of expansion building a plant or acquiring an incumbent the model takes into account that there is a transfer of the buyer firm level characteristics to the acquired plants which affects profits from the acquisition estimates show that a less permissive reagan bush administration s merger policy would decrease the number of acquired plants by 71 greenfield entry would increase by 9 2 and consumer surplus would decrease by 23 5 results suggest that regulators should be concerned about policies that negatively affect the efficient reallocation of assets between incumbents and entrants

targeting capital a cultural economy approach to understanding the efficacy of two anti genetic engineering movements in the late 1990s the british anti genetic engineering ge movement effectively closed britain s market for genetically modified foods while the u s anti ge movement had a negligible impact in seeking to explain the different outcomes of these similar social movements the authors draw upon the global commodity chains gcc literature to extend the understanding of the economic and industry related openings and closures social movements face as they seek to promote social change this analysis not only illustrates the importance of economic structures and organization for movement outcomes but also shows how the economic sphere is culturally constituted in this fashion it broadens the social movement literature s understanding both of the way that political economy matters to movement efficacy and of the way that cultural processes infuse the economic sphere the study advances the gcc literature by showing how gccs are cultural as well as economic constructs

shaming the corporation the social production of targets and the anti sweatshop movement as social movements co evolve with changes in states and markets it is crucial to examine how they make particular kinds of actors into focal points for the expression of grievances and the demand for rights but researchers often bracket the question of why some kinds of organizations are more likely than others to become targets of social movement pressure we theorize the social production of targets by social movements rejecting a simple reflection model to focus on configurations of power and vulnerability that shape repertoires of contention empirically we extend structural accounts of global commodity chains and cultural accounts of markets to analyze the production of targets in the case of the anti sweatshop movement of the 1990s using a longitudinal firm level dataset and unique data on anti sweatshop activism we identify factors that attracted social movement pressure to particular companies firms power and positions strongly shaped their likelihood of becoming targets of anti swea

empirical research on discrete choice game theory models of entry an illustration abstract we discuss the empirical implementation of discrete game theoretic models of firm entry after presenting a simple model of entry that underlies much of existing empirical analysis we discuss the major problems that must be tackled when empirically implementing theoretical models and econometric methods used in the literature finally we present results from a reduced form estimation of a sequential move entry game using data from the uk hamburger market

lagged beliefs and reference dependent utility abstract models of expectation based reference dependent preferences proposes that the reference point to which consumption outcomes are compared is endogenously determined as a function of lagged probabilistic beliefs this paper presents an experiment designed to test some predictions of expectation based reference dependence models the design induces a stochastic reference point via a lottery and then measures valuations for a commodity the experimental results find no effect of the first stage lottery on commodity valuation

the ethical backlash of corporate branding past decades have witnessed the growing success of branding as a corporate activity as well as a rise in anti brand activism while appearing to be contradictory both trends have emerged from common sources the transition from industrial to post industrial society and the advent of globalization the examination of which might lead to a socially grounded understanding of why brand success in the future is likely to demand more than superior product performance placing increasing demand on corporations with regard to a broader envelop of socially responsible behavior directions for strategic and managerial options are suggested

can prospect theory explain the disposition effect a new perspective on reference points there has been recent debate about whether prospect theory can explain the disposition effect using both theory and simulation this paper shows that prospect theory often predicts the disposition effect when lagged expected final wealth is the reference point under the principle of preferred personal equilibrium regardless of whether the reference point is updated or not when initial wealth is the reference point however there is often no disposition effect models that use a reference point with no lag under the principle of preferred personal equilibrium or that determine the reference point using the principle of disappointment aversion cannot explain why the investor bought a stock in the first place reference point adjustment weakens the disposition effect leads to more aggressive initial stock purchase strategies and predicts history dependence in stock holding this paper was accepted by john list behavioral economics

from streets to suites how the anti biotech movement affected german pharmaceutical firms how do social movements affect decisions within corporations such as the commercialization of new technologies we suggest that the effect of movement activism is conditioned by the internal polity and therefore varies across organizations this article examines how the anti genetic movement in germany during the 1980s affected six domestic pharmaceutical firms commercialization of biotechnology we develop a process model of how movements penetrate the relatively closed polity of private organizations external contestation weakened the position of internal champions of biotechnology precipitated divisions among organizational elites and undermined collective commitment to the technology the movement also increased perceptions of investment uncertainty but the consequences of this uncertainty depended on organizational logics of decision making as a result investments in some firms were tilted away from domestic biotechnology projects the model also explains this variation in organization level outcomes of movement contestation

organizational responses to public and private politics an analysis of climate change activists and u s oil and gas firms we explore how activists public and private politics elicit different organizational responses using data on u s petroleum companies from 1982 to 2010 we investigate how climate change activists serving as witnesses at congressional hearings and engaging in firm protests influenced firms internal and external responses we find that public politics induced internally focused practice adoption whereas private politics induced externally focused framing activities we also find that private and public politics had an interaction effect as firms faced more private political pressure they were less likely to respond to public political pressures similarly as firms faced greater public political pressure they were less likely to respond to private political pressures the results suggest that activists can have a significant impact on firm behavior depending on the mix of private and public political tactics they engage in we discuss the implications of our study for social movement research organ

the strategic timing incentives of commercial radio stations an empirical analysis using multiple equilibria commercial radio stations and advertisers may have conflicting interests about when commercial breaks should be played this article estimates an incomplete information timing game to examine stations equilibrium timing incentives it shows how identification can be aided by the existence of multiple equilibria when appropriate data are available it finds that stations want to play their commercials at the same time suggesting that stations incentives are at least partially aligned with the interests of advertisers although equilibrium coordination is far from perfect coordination incentives are much stronger during drivetime hours when more listeners switch stations and in smaller markets

competition and mergers in the retail market for toys i study competition between big box retailers k mart and wal mart and toy retailers kb toys and toys r us with the aim of estimating wal mart s effect on the profits of toy retailers using rece

how acquisitions affect firm behavior and performance evidence from the dialysis industry many industries have become increasingly concentrated through mergers and acquisitions which in health care may have important consequences for spending and outcomes using a rich panel of medicare claims data for nearly one million dialysis patients we advance the literature on the effects of mergers and acquisitions by studying the precise ways providers change their behavior following an acquisition we base our empirical analysis on more than 1 200 acquisitions of independent dialysis facilities by large chains over a 12 year period and find that chains transfer several prominent strategies to the facilities they acquire most notably acquired facilities converge to the behavior of their new parent companies by increasing patients doses of highly reimbursed drugs replacing high skill nurses with less skilled technicians and waitlisting fewer patients for kidney transplants we then show that patients fare worse as a result of these changes outcomes such as hospitalizations and mortality deteriorate with our long panel allowing us to identify these effects from within facility or within patient variation around the acquisitions because overall medicare spending increases at acquired facilities mostly as a result of higher drug reimbursements this decline in quality corresponds to a decline in value for payers we conclude the article by considering the channels through which acquisitions produce such large changes in provider behavior and outcomes finding that increased market power cannot explain the decline in quality rather the adoption of the acquiring firm s strategies and practices drives our main results with greater economies of scale for drug purchasing responsible for more than half of the change in profits following an acquisition

entry in monopoly market this paper develops new empirical models of market concentration from game theoretic models of entry we construct our models from inequality conditions that describe entrants equilibrium strategies in simultaneous move and sequential move games and use them to study the effects of entry in isolated monopoly markets for new automobiles from estimates of the market size necessary to support one and two dealers we conclude that monopoly dealers do not block the entry of a second dealer we also find that entry does not cause price cost margins to fall by much

expectations based reference dependent life cycle consumption this study incorporates a recent preference specification of expectations based loss aversion which has been applied broadly in microeconomics into a classic macro model to offer a unified explanation for three empirical observations about life cycle consumption first loss aversion explains excess smoothness and sensitivity that is the empirical observation that consumption responds to income shocks with a lag intuitively such lagged responses allow the agent to delay painful losses in consumption until his expectations have adjusted secondly the preferences generate a hump shaped consumption profile early in life consumption is low due to a first order precautionary savings motive however as uncertainty resolves over time this motive is dominated by time inconsistent overconsumption that eventually leads to declining consumption towards the end of life thirdly consumption drops at retirement prior to retirement the agent wants to overconsume his uncertain income before his expectations catch up post retirement however income is no longer uncertain and overconsumption is associated with a sure loss in future consumption as an empirical contribution i structurally estimate the preference parameters using life cycle consumption data my estimates match those obtained in experiments and other micro studies and generate the degree of excess smoothness observed in macro consumption data

an endowment effect for risk experimental tests of stochastic reference points recent models of reference dependent preferences indicate that expectations may play a prominent role in the presence of behavioral anomalies a subset of such expectations based models predicts an endowment effect for risk that risk attitudes differ when reference points change from certain to stochastic in two purposefully simple risk preference experiments eliminating often discussed confounds i demonstrate both between and within subjects such an endowment effect for risk these results provide needed separation between expectations based reference dependent models allow for evaluation of recent theoretical extensions and may help to close a long standing debate in decision science on inconsistency between utility elicitation methodologies

supply chain specific understanding the patchy success of ethical sourcing initiatives as a number of high profile companies have found to their cost corporate reputations can be significantly affected by firms management of sustainability issue including those that are outside their direct control such as the environmental and social impacts of their supply networks this paper begins by examining the relationship between corporate social responsibility reputation and supply network conditions it then looks at the effectiveness of one tool for managing supply network sustainability issues ethical sourcing codes of conduct by examining how the characteristics of three supply networks branded clothes diy wood products and branded confectionary affects the implementation ethical sourcing codes of conduct it ends by setting out conclusions on why implementation of such codes has been so much more successful in some sectors than others and recommendations on effective approaches to managing sustainability issues in supply networks

the effect of online protests and firm responses on shareholder and consumer evaluation protests that target firms socially irresponsible behavior are increasingly organized via digital media this study uses two methods to investigate the effects that online protests and mitigating firm responses have on shareholders and consumers evaluation the first method is a financial analysis that includes an event study which measures the effect of online protests on the target firm s share price as well as an investigation of the boundary effects of protest characteristics the second method is an online experiment that assesses the effect of an online protest campaign on consumers perception and purchase intention as well as any mitigating effects that a firm s response may have contrary to recent studies suggesting that participation in online protests is only token support without any substantive effects our results show that online protests do hurt firms can expect to suffer financial reputational and sales damage when an online protest campaign mobilizes consumers successfully we also show that online protests are more likely to take firms by surprise than offline protests firms can exacerbate or reduce the damage by their response we find that although firms may repair the damage to consumers purchase intentions the negative effects on a brand s image are harder to rectify the results have valuable implications for protest organizers and managers faced with the task of responding

exchange asymmetry in experimental settings abstract we review past trading experiments and present 11 new experiments designed to show how the trading rate responds to alterations of the experimental procedure in agreement with earlier studies results show that if the trade decision is converted to one resembling a choice between goods the exchange asymmetry disappears but otherwise the asymmetry is remarkably robust results also indicate that when trading is public herding can occur which may have caused some of the more extreme examples of the exchange asymmetry and that some of the lack of trade may result from preference indifference nevertheless some form of status quo bias which may consist of a combination of loss aversion gain attraction regret avoidance and dislike of trading and which may be enhanced by indifference between the goods offered probably remains as an important influence on the trading rate

expectations as endowments evidence on reference dependent preferences from exchange and valuation experiments while evidence suggests that people evaluate outcomes with respect to reference points little is known about what determines them we conduct two experiments that show that reference points are determined at least in part by expectations in an exchange experiment we endow subjects with an item and randomize the probability they will be allowed to trade subjects that are less likely to be able to trade are more likely to choose to keep their item in a valuation experiment we randomly assign subjects a high or low probability of obtaining an item and elicit their willingness to accept for it the high probability treatment increases valuation of the item by 20 30 copyright 2011 oxford university press

a survey of recent empirical work concerning auctions in this paper the authors survey some recent empirical work concerning auctions first outlining two complementary approaches to the empirical analysis of auctions and then discussing several recent developments in the econometric analysis of field data concerning auctions

is the endowment effect an expectations effect a hallmark result within behavioral economics is that individuals choices are affected by current endowments a recent theory due to k szegi and rabin 2006 quarterly journal of economics 121 1133 1165 explains such endowment effect with a model of expectations based reference dependent preferences departing from past work we conduct complementary experiments to disentangle expectations verified probabilistic beliefs held by subjects from other features of endowment such as assignment to a good hence allowing us to compare the effect of expectations with that of other variations while mere assignment can affect choices we do not find a large role in the effect for k szegi rabin expectations

leading by example values based strategy to instill ethical conduct years of research clearly shows that relying on traditional organizational power bases is not effective when companies want to promote business ethics and performance it is not only that the use of legitimate power to establish ethics codes and coercive power to punish employees who do not comply does not work this study based on a multi method research approach in the retail industry indicates that the classic iron fist leads to unethical business values and lower service performance but there is a light at the end of the tunnel for forward looking managers the ethical attitudes and behaviors of employees within international organizations is a dynamic variable that is possible to change by the use of values based leadership our extensive study of a large grocery store chain owned by a multinational corporation indicates that managers who lead by example will boost team values and commitment

demand fluctuations in the ready mix concrete industry i investigate the role of demand shocks in the ready mix concrete industry using census data on more than 15 000 plants i estimate a model of investment and entry in oligopolistic markets these estimates are used to simulate the effect of eliminating short term local demand changes a policy of smoothing the volatility of demand has a market expansion effect the model predicts a 39 increase in the number of plants in the industry since bigger markets have both more plants and larger plants a demand smoothing fiscal policy would increase the share of large plants by 20 finally the policy of smoothing demand reduces entry and exit by 25 but has no effect on the rate at which firms change their size

the effect of ownership structure on prices in geographically differentiated industries i analyze how ownership structure and market geography jointly influence fast food prices i estimate a model of demand and supply that accounts for the market geography and run counterfactual experiments that demonstrate how mergers affect prices i find that the impact of mergers can be large that this impact decreases as the merging outlets are farther apart that mergers among market leaders generally increase prices more than mergers among weaker firms and that mergers can increase prices even if the outlets are so far apart that neither outleti s presence affects prices at the other before the merger

change actors in the u s electric energy system the role of environmental groups in utility adoption and diffusion of wind power we study the contribution of environmental groups to new technology adoption and diffusion by dominant incumbents building on institutional and social movement theory we develop a theoretical framework that sheds light on environmental groups as change actors we theorize that by approaching embedded key constituents with various strategic actions environmental groups affect taken for granted beliefs build legitimacy for renewable energy technologies and convince skeptical constituents to support the new technology we verify our theoretical framework with a case study of wind power development in colorado we find that environmentalists educate constituents on the benefits of the new technology engage in activities leading to regulatory and legislative decisions for wind while also providing direct assistance to the utility as a result utilities are both pressured and encouraged to adopt and diffuse wind power on a large scale this research directs attention to the role of environmental groups as change actors and the legitimating effects of their actions it highlights their part in creating a more favorable institutional environment for new technologies while directly influencing the incumbent s technology choice this paper contributes to an understanding of bottom up actor initiated changes in energy systems taking into account both the systemic technological infrastructure and the institutional context

present or future incentives on the optimality of fixed wages with moral hazard abstract this paper uses a laboratory experiment to show that principals can defer all incentives for present effort to future payments and thus pay fixed wages and still motivate workers at the least cost whenever outcomes are observable this result contrasts with the prediction of the classical moral hazard model according to which future and present payments must be made contingent on present outcomes to induce effort at the least cost even though risk aversion cannot explain this result i estimate an expectation based reference dependent model to show that it is consistent with loss aversion

the economics of movement success business responses to civil rights mobilization1 this article explores why movements are successful in obtaining concessions from economic actors while social movement theorists have suggested that economic actors weigh the costliness of protests the author considers the vulnerability of movement targets to both the cost of disruptions in routine transactions and the cost of conceding to movement demands by addressing the magnitude of these costs and their interaction the author derives an economic opportunity structure to predict the receptivity of economic actors to movement demands and the likely struggles among them over the decision to yield also this cost assessment approach reveals patterns of vulnerability across economic sectors to the costs of disruptive mobilization the author tests this analysis based on case studies of the responses of economic actors to civil rights mobilization in the 1960s in five southern localities these cases depict how the character of protest and variation in the configuration of business communities defined

the dynamic spillovers of entry an application to the generic drug industry this paper examines whether experience from entry in one market can potentially enhance profitability at a future market opportunity for a related product we formulate and estimate a dynamic game of entry in which forward looking firms make decisions not just based on present benefits of past entry but also anticipating potential future benefits of current entry dynamic spillovers of entry are incorporated through a firm specific unobservable to the researcher cost that depends on past entry decisions the unobserved costs may also be serially persistent thus the model allows for firm specific unobserved heterogeneity that evolves based on firm actions the challenge of estimating a dynamic game with serially correlated unobserved state variables subject to endogenous feedback is overcome by embedding a particle filter based technique in a nested fixed point algorithm using an application to a stylized model of entry in the generic pharmaceutical industry we underscore the motivation for the model specification and the methodology developed our estimates imply positive spillover effects of entry moreover these spillovers suggest heterogeneity not just across firms but also within firms over time based on their history of entry decisions our results illustrate that entry may potentially provide firms with additional strategic advantage in later markets and that entry spillovers may be an important factor to consider in the equilibrium evolution of the generic drug industry the web appendix is available at https doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2016 2648 this paper was accepted by j miguel villas boas marketing

clumped or piecewise evidence on preferences for information in this paper we examine individuals attitudes toward the timing of information we test a theoretical prediction that people prefer to get information clumped together rather than piecewise we conduct a controlled lab experiment where subjects participate in a lottery and can choose between different resolutions of uncertainty clumped or piecewise and analyze which kind of resolution is preferred two additional treatments allow us to get a quantitative measure of subjects preferences over different information structures our data provide little support for a systematic aversion to piecewise information on the aggregate level in additional treatment conditions we demonstrate the robustness of our findings and explore potential explanations data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2013 1884 this paper was accepted by john list behavioral economics

the influence of retail management s use of social power on corporate ethical values employee commitment and performance recent cases in retailing reflect that ethics have a major impact on brands and performance in turn demonstrating that brand owners employees and consumers focus on ethical values in this study we analyze how various sources of social power affect corporate ethical values retailer s commitment to the retail organization and ultimately sales and service quality multi source data based on a sample of 225 retailers indicated a strong link between power ethics and commitment and that these affected output performance

estimating spatial differences in the brazilian cost of living with household location choices abstract this paper uses a model of optimal household residential decisions to construct a comprehensive true spatial cost of living index with readily available brazilian census data we find evidence of a decreasing or u shaped relationship differing with education level and region between the cost of living and urbanization suggesting that both market disintegration and congestion play roles in raising costs controlling for spatial differences in the cost of living is shown to have important consequences for the determinants of poverty and contrary to many previous results to increase income inequality

estimation of a model of entry in the airline industry this paper considers the effect of an airline s scale of operation at an airport on the profitability of routes flown out of that airport the empirical methodology uses the entry decisions of airlines as indicators of underlying profitability the results extend the empirical literature on airport presence by providing a new set of estimates of the determinants of city pair profitability these estimates imply that city pair profits increase in airport presence and decrease rapidly in the number of entering firms the literature on empirical models of oligopoly entry is also extended via a focus on the role of differences between firms

quantifying loss averse tax manipulation this article presents evidence that loss aversion affects taxpayers as they file their annual tax returns and presents a framework for estimating the policy impact of this psychological phenomenon in my theoretical framework taxpayers manipulate the money paid to the tax authority through avoidance and evasion activities when taxpayers face the prospect of owing the tax authority money on tax day loss aversion generates the perception of a greater marginal utility of tax reduction and therefore motivates greater pursuit of tax reduction activities applying a bunching based identification strategy to u s tax return data i estimate that taxpayers facing a payment on tax day reduce their tax liability by 34 more than taxpayers owed a refund

negative voters electoral competition with loss aversion this paper studies how voter loss aversion affects electoral competition in a downsian setting assuming that the voters reference point is the status quo we show that loss aversion has a number of effects first for some values of the status quo there is policy rigidity both parties choose platforms equal to the status quo regardless of other parameters second there is a moderation effect when there is policy rigidity the equilibrium policy outcome is closer to the moderate voters ideal point than in the absence of loss aversion in a dynamic extension of the model we consider how parties strategically manipulate the status quo to their advantage and we find that this increases policy rigidity finally we show that with loss aversion incumbents adjust less than challengers to changes in voter preferences the underlying force is that the status quo works to the advantage of the incumbent this prediction of asymmetric adjustment is new and we test it using elections to us state legislatures the results are as predicted incumbent parties respond less to shocks in the preferences of the median voter

getting to know you a theory of strategic group identity this paper develops a theory of strategic group identity that explains how strategic groups emerge in an industry and how they can affect firm behaviors and outcomes in so doing it provides a theoretical basis for the existence of strategic groups we argue that managers cognitively partition their industry environment to reduce uncertainty and to cope with bounded rationality social learning theory and social identification theory are used to describe how cognitive groups coalesce into meaningful substructures and how a group level identity emerges we describe the ways in which macro level factors condition the development of groups and their identities we introduce the notion of a strong identity which characterizes any group sufficiently recognized and attended to by members to affect individual action groups with weak identities are no more than transient agglomerations of firms and do not exist in any meaningful sense these ideas are developed into propositions that describe the conditions under which groups with strong identities are likely to emerge a second set of propositions describes their transformation over time identity strength is linked to both positive and negative outcomes in a final set of propositions we show how strategic groups with strong identities can affect firm performance resolving a longstanding problem which has plagued strategic groups research and conclude by suggesting some approaches for measurement and future research 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

social business hybrids demand externalities competitive advantage and growth through diversification organization scholars have recently studied the internal challenges and opportunities faced by companies that combine business and social logics i e social business hybrids by adopting a demand side perspective this paper addresses the implications of hybridity for strategic choices with products and businesses by focusing on the role of social business hybrids customers in the conceptual framework social identity theory explains how hybridity generates both positive and negative demand side externalities thus hybridity can be a source of competitive advantage in the marketplace but also create hurdles to firms ability to scale up their business diversification represents a potential choice that simultaneously generates growth preserves hybridity and avoids negative demand side externalities this paper analyzes the optimal type timing and scope of such diversification

an empirical model of firm entry with endogenous product type choices i describe a model of entry with endogenous product type choices these choices are formalized as the outcomes of a game of incomplete information in which rivals differentiated products have nonuniform competitive effects on profits i estimate the model for location choices in the video retail industry using a nested fixed point algorithm solution the results imply significant returns to product differentiation simulations illustrate the tradeoff between demand and intensified competition and the extent to which markets with more scope for differentiation support greater entry

bid preference programs and participation in highway procurement auctions we use data from highway procurement auctions subject to california s small business preference program to study the effect of bid preferences on auction outcomes our analysis is based on an estimated model of firms bidding and participation decisions which allows us to evaluate the effects of current and alternative policy designs we show that incorporating participation responses significantly alters the assessment of preferential treatment policies

neoclassical theory versus prospect theory evidence from the marketplace several experimental studies have provided evidence that suggest indifference curves have a kink around the current endowment level these results which clearly contradict closely held economic doctrines have led some influential commentators to call for an entirely new economic paradigm to displace conventional neoclassical theory e g prospect theory which invokes psychological effects this paper pits neoclassical theory against prospect theory by investigating data drawn from more than 375 subjects actively participating in a well functioning marketplace the pattern of results suggests that prospect theory adequately organizes behavior among inexperienced consumers but consumers with intense market experience behave largely in accordance with neoclassical predictions moreover the data are consistent with the notion that consumers learn to overcome the endowment effect in situations beyond specific problems they have previously encountered this transference of behavior across domains has important implications in both a positive and normative sense

product positioning and competition the role of location in the fast food industry this paper examines optimal product positioning strategies of asymmetric firms in the context of retail outlet locations in the fast food industry the relationships between profits and product differentiation reveal that both mcdonald s and burger king are better off avoiding close competition if the market area is large enough however in small market areas mcdonald s would prefer to be located together with burger king rather than have the two outlets be only a slight distance apart in contrast burger king s profits always increase with greater differentiation offsetting these incentives is the desirability of locating centrally to appeal to the most customers the equilibrium depends on the market s size in small markets mcdonald s locates near the center of the market and burger king locates to the side of the market in larger markets mcdonald s and burger king choose locations on opposite sides of the market although mcdonald s locates closer to the optimal central location than burger king i also show that the role of price competition on product positioning is fundamentally different under asymmetric competition than under symmetric competition price competition unambiguously induces symmetric firms toward differentiation in contrast with asymmetric firms price competition shifts burger king s incentives toward locating closer to mcdonald s even while price competition increases mcdonald s desire for differentiation as a result equilibrium locations with asymmetric firms are approximately the same regardless of whether prices adjust with location

determining the impact of federal antidiscrimination policy on the economic status of blacks a study of south carolina this paper evaluates alternative explanations for the dramatic increase in black employment in south carolina manufacturing that occurred in the mid 1960s black progress in traditionally segregated sectors of manufacturing in operation at the time jim crow laws were passed cannot be attributed to tight labor markets the decline of agriculture or the growth of education of the black workforce the only plausible explanation is federal government civil rights and affirmative action policy for newer industries that entered the state on a large scale after world war ii the growth of skills among blacks accounts for black economic progress copyright 1989 by american economic association

bargaining power strike durations and wage outcomes an analysis of strikes in the 1880s strike outcomes in the 1880s had a winner take all character successful strikes ended with a discrete wage gain failed strikes ended with a return to work at the prestrike wage we present a theoretical interpretation of these outcomes based on a war of attrition model we fit an empirical model specifying the capitulation times of the two parties and the size of the wage gain in the event of a strike success the results show a systematic relation between the determinants of strike success and the determinants of the wage gain for a successful strike

the social and environmental responsibilities of multinationals evidence from the brent spar case this paper argues that multinational corporations face levels of environmental and social responsibility higher than their national counterparts drawing on the literatures of stakeholder salience corporate reputation management and evidence from the confrontation between shell and greenpeace over the brent spar in 1995 two mechanisms international reputation side effects and foreign stakeholder salience are identified and their contribution in creating an environment more restrictive in terms of environmental and social responsibility is elaborated on the paper concludes with discussing the links of the work presented here with a number of ongoing debates within the filed of international business ethics and the managerial implications of the two mechanisms identified

public monopoly and economic efficiency evidence from the pennsylvania liquor control board s entry decisions we estimate a spatial model of liquor demand to analyze the impact of government controlled retailing on entry patterns in the absence of the pennsylvania liquor control board the state would have roughly 2 5 times the current number of stores higher consumer surplus and lower payments to liquor store employees with just over half the number of stores that would maximize welfare the government system is instead best rationalized as profit maximization with profit sharing government operation mitigates but does not eliminate free entry s bias against rural consumers we find only limited evidence of political influence on entry jel d42 d72 l11 l12 l43 l81

exchange asymmetries incorrectly interpreted as evidence of endowment effect theory and prospect theory systematic asymmetries in exchange behavior have been widely interpreted as support for endowment effect theory an application of prospect theory positing that loss aversion and utility function kinks set by entitlements explain observed asymmetries we experimentally test an alternative explanation namely that asymmetries are explained by classical preference theories finding influence through the experimental procedures typically used contrary to the predictions of endowment effect theory we observe no asymmetries when we modify procedures to remove the influence of classical preference theories when we return to traditional type procedures however the asymmetries reappear the results support explanations based in classical preference theories and reject endowment effect theory

intertemporal incentives under loss aversion this paper studies the intertemporal allocation of incentives in a repeated moral hazard model with reference dependent preferences as in k oszegi and rabin 2009 besides consumption utility the agent experiences utility from the change in his beliefs about present and future eort and income when eort plans are rational the prospect of being disappointed by the outcome realization equals that of being pleasantly surprised and hence the loss averse agent is on net hurt by news in contrast to the prediction with classical preferences but consistent with real world contracts if consumption utility is not too concave and news about present income carries suciently larger weight in utility than news about future income a contract setting a current

regulation and capacity competition in health care evidence from u s dialysis markets abstract this paper studies entry and capacity decisions by dialysis providers in the united states we estimate a structural model where providers make continuous strategic choices of capacity based on their private information about own costs and knowledge of the distribution of competitors private information we evaluate the impact on the market structure and providers profits under counterfactual regulatory policies that increase the costs or reduce the payment per unit of capacity we find that these policies reduce the market capacity as measured by the number of dialysis stations however the downward sloping reaction curve shields some providers from negative profit shocks in certain markets the paper also has a methodological contribution in that it proposes new estimators for bayesian games with continuous actions

spatial price competition a semiparametric approach we investigate the nature of price competition among firms that produce differentiated products and compete in markets that are limited in extent we propose an instrumental variables series estimator for the matrix of cross price response coefficients demonstrate that our estimator is consistent and derive its asymptotic distribution our semiparametric approach allows us to discriminate among models of global competition in which all products compete with all others and local competition in which products compete only with their neighbors we apply our semiparametric estimator to data from u s wholesale gasoline markets and find that in this market competition is highly localized

the costs of free entry an empirical study of real estate agents in greater boston this paper studies the consequences of xed commissions and low entry barriers in greater boston s real estate brokerage industry from 1998 2007 a period with substantial agent turnover we nd that entry is not associated with increased sales probabilities or reduced sales time instead it decreases the market share of experienced agents and reduces average service quality we develop a dynamic empirical model motivated by these patterns to study the extent of ineciency in the current system compared to alternatives to accommodate a large state space we approximate the value function using sieves and impose the bellman equation as an equilibrium constraint if commissions are cut in half there would be 40 fewer agents implying social savings of 23 of industry revenue and the average agent would facilitate 73 more transactions house price appreciation of 50 during our sample period accounts for a 24 increase in the number of agents and a 31 decline in average agent productivity finally improving information about past agent performance can increase productivity and generate signicant social savings

expected prices as reference points theory and experiments abstract i show theoretically that applying the model of k szegi and rabin 2006 to a simple purchasing decision where consumers are ex ante uncertain about the price realisation gives when changing the underlying distribution of expected prices rise to counterintuitive predictions in contrast with a good deal model where consumers are predicted to be disappointed rejoice when the realised price is perceived as being worse better than the other possible realisation while the underlying ideas of both models are similar with respect to expectation based reference points the different results come from the concept of personal equilibrium in k szegi and rabin 2006 the experimental results show some support for the simpler good deal model for a number of different real consumption goods though the support is weaker for goods that either have a salient market price or no market price outside of the experiment

identification and estimation of dynamic games when players beliefs are not in equilibrium this article deals with the identification and estimation of dynamic games when players beliefs about other players actions are biased that is beliefs do not represent the probability distribution of the actual behaviour of other players conditional on the information available first we show that an exclusion restriction typically used to identify empirical games provides testable non parametric restrictions of the null hypothesis of equilibrium beliefs in dynamic games with either finite or infinite horizon we use this result to construct a simple likelihood ratio test of equilibrium beliefs second we prove that this exclusion restriction together with consistent estimates of beliefs at two points in the support of the variable involved in the exclusion restriction is sufficient for non parametric point identification of players belief functions as well as useful functions of payoffs third we propose a simple two step estimation method we illustrate our model and methods using both monte carlo experiments and an empirical application of a dynamic game of store location by retail chains the key conditions for the identification of beliefs and payoffs in our application are the following 1 the previous year s network of stores of the competitor does not have a direct effect on the profit of a firm but the firm s own network of stores at previous year does affect its profit because the existence of sunk entry costs and economies of density in these costs and 2 firms beliefs are unbiased in those markets that are close in a geographic sense to the opponent s network of stores though beliefs are unrestricted and potentially biased for unexplored markets which are farther away from the competitors network our estimates show significant evidence of biased beliefs furthermore imposing the restriction of unbiased beliefs generates a substantial attenuation bias in the estimate of competition effects

market structure and multiple equilibria in airline markets we provide a practical method to estimate the payoff functions of players in complete information static discrete games with respect to the empirical literature on entry games originated by bresnahan and reiss 1990 and berry 1992 the main novelty of our framework is to allow for general forms of heterogeneity across players without making equilibrium selection assumptions we allow the effects that the entry of each individual airline has on the profits of its competitors its competitive effects to differ across airlines the identified features of the model are sets of parameters partial identification such that the choice probabilities predicted by the econometric model are consistent with the empirical choice probabilities estimated from the data we apply this methodology to investigate the empirical importance of firm heterogeneity as a determinant of market structure in the u s airline industry we find evidence of heterogeneity across airlines in their profit functions the competitive effects of large airlines american delta united are different from those of low cost carriers and southwest also the competitive effect of an airline is increasing in its airport presence which is an important measure of observable heterogeneity in the airline industry then we develop a policy experiment to estimate the effect of repealing the wright amendment on competition in markets out of the dallas airports we find that repealing thewright amendment would increase the number of markets served out of dallas love

the endowment effect and the reference state evidence and manipulations abstract recent reports suggest that the endowment effect may be due to conditions under which it is observed and explained by incentives long recognized in standard theory evidence from new experiments reported here provides empirical support for the role of the economic environment on people s perceived reference state and consequently on their valuations as suggested by koszegi and rabin koszegi b rabin m 2006 a model of reference dependent preferences quarterly journal of economics 121 1133 1165 and indicates that the disappearance of the valuation disparity is more likely due instead to conditions that weaken the perception of reference states further these conditions appear to be poor approximations of those that prevail in most cases for which valuations are normally made

reconsidering the effect of market experience on the endowment effect simple exchange experiments have revealed that participants trade their endowment less frequently than standard demand theory would predict list 2003a finds that the most experienced dealers acting in a well functioning market are not subject to this exchange asymmetry suggesting that a significant amount of market experience is required to overcome it in order to understand this market experience eect we introduce a distinction between two types of uncertainty choice uncertainty and trade uncertainty both of which could lead to exchange asymmetry we conjecture that trade uncertainty is most important for exchange asymmetry to test this conjecture we design an experiment where the two treatments impact dierently on trade uncertainty while controlling for choice uncertainty supporting our conjecture we find that forcing subjects to give away their endowment in a series of exchanges eliminates exchange asymmetry in a subsequent test we discuss why markets might not provide sucient

loss aversion and competition in vickrey auctions money ain t no good we present results from an experiment with a within subject design aimed at testing a unique prediction of expectations based reference dependent preferences and loss aversion in private value second price vickrey auctions if bidders have expectationsbased reference dependent preferences the total number of participants in an auction should affect bids in auctions for real objects but not in auctions with induced monetary values our findings are consistent with expectations based reference dependent preferences and loss aversion in real object auctions subjects bids are affected by the number of competitors and on average they decline with the intensity of competition in induced value auctions instead bids are unaffected by the intensity of competition we also successfully replicate an experiment from sprenger 2015 aimed at distinguishing expectations based loss aversion from models of disappointment aversion this provides additional evidence that our findings in the auction experiments are due to expectations based loss aversion

semi structural models of advertising competition we propose a semi structural discrete choice model that can be used to estimate static or dynamic decision rules it is particularly useful in strategic contexts when games involve a rich set of choices when private information is correlated and when one wants to uncover the effect of historic behavior on for example prices sales and profits we apply our discrete choice estimator to study decision rules for a dynamic game of price and advertising competition and we evaluate the long run consequences of those rules

your loss is my gain a recruitment experiment with framed incentives empirically labor contracts that financially penalize failure induce higher effort provision than economically identical contracts presented as paying a bonus for success an effect attributed to loss aversion this is puzzling as penalties are infrequently used in practice the most obvious explanation is selection loss averse agents are unwilling to accept such contracts i formalize this intuition then run an experiment to test it surprisingly i find that workers were 25 percent more likely to accept penalty contracts with no evidence of adverse or advantageous selection consistent with the existing literature penalty contracts also increased performance on the job by 0 2 standard deviations i outline extensions to the basic theory that are consistent with the main results but argue that more research is needed on the long term effects of penalty contracts if we want to understand why firms seem unwilling to use them

a dynamic model of entry and exit in a growing industry the potential demand in a new industry evolves over time demand is initially low but advertising by the industry s early entrants can speed up demand growth however there is intrinsic uncertainty of the demand level in each period and uncertainty of the demand evolution path which can be affected by the underlying economic environment we construct a dynamic model that features the stochastically and endogenously expanding demand of a new industry and we investigate the optimal entry and exit behavior of firms as the industry evolves we find that firms incentive to enter early depends critically on the cost that early entrants have to pay in developing the market when the cost is high and the benefit spills over to potential entrants firms have an incentive to wait and the probability of entry can increase with the number of incumbents under certain circumstances firms entry strategy is also influenced by the transition of economic states firms are more likely to enter under a state that shows the prospect of demand taking off soon we also find that in the early stage of an industry higher demand uncertainty can induce faster entry

reference points and effort provision a key open question for theories of reference dependent preferences is what determines the reference point one candidate is expectations what people expect could affect how they feel about what actually occurs in a real effort experiment we manipulate the rational expectations of subjects and check whether this manipulation influences their effort provision we find that effort provision is significantly different between treatments in the way predicted by models of expectation based reference dependent preferences if expectations are high subjects work longer and earn more money than if expectations are low

firm expansion size spillovers and market dominance in retail chain dynamics we develop and estimate a dynamic game of strategic firm expansion and contraction decisions to study the role of firm size in future profitability and market dominance modeling firm size is important because retail chain dynamics are more richly driven by expansion and contraction than de novo entry or permanent exit additionally anticipated size spillovers may influence the strategies of forward looking firms making it difficult to analyze the effects of size without explicitly accounting for these in the expectations and hence decisions of firms expansion may also be profitable for some firms while detrimental for others thus we explicitly model and allow for heterogeneity in the dynamic link between firm size and profits as well as potential for persistent brand effects through firm specific unobservable factors as a methodological contribution we surmount the hurdle of estimating the model by extending a two step procedure that circumvents solving the game the first stage combines semipar

endowment effects in the field evidence from india s ipo lotteries we study a unique field experiment in india in which 1 5 million stock investors face lotteries for the random allocation of shares we find that the winners of these randomly assigned initial public offering ipo lottery shares are significantly more likely to hold them than lottery losers 1 6 and even 24 months after the random allocation this finding strongly evokes laboratory findings of an endowment effect for risky gambles and persists in samples of highly active investors suggesting along with additional evidence that this behaviour is not driven by inertia alone the effect decreases as experience in the ipo market increases but remains even for very experienced investors leading theories of the endowment effect based on reference dependent preferences are unable to fully explain these and other findings in the data