an econometric study of illegal electricity connections in the urban favelas of belo horizonte brazil abstract the data from the project conviver launched in 2006 in belo horizonte brazil provides a unique opportunity to study illegal electricity connections based on an original dataset of 15 279 low income households this paper studies the incidence and determinants of illegality in the context of low income urban favelas the probability of engaging in illegal behavior is explained not just by low income but by a combination of concurring factors sub standard energy provision and equipment inefficient incorrect use of domestic electric appliances and running an informal in house business these recurrent issues in the urban favelas aggravate a sense of exclusion from growth which is generally recognized as a trigger of illegality the impact of energy demand on energy related illegality is carefully analyzed and different empirical strategies adopted to circumvent some simultaneity problem between both decision processes the effectiveness of consumption based energy subsidies is also explored in spite of some contrary arguments in the literature in the context of peri urban slums such measures may exert a positive impact in mitigating illegal access and use of energy effectiveness will be enhanced by accompanying measures such as perceivable improvements of equipment metering and maintenance promotion of beneficiaries awareness of energy usage and energy saving behaviors

predicting exchange rate crises mexico revisited abstract this paper predicts ex ante probabilities of currency crises and sizes of expected devaluations month by month for mexico between 1980 and 1986 the forces contributing to speculative attacks on the mexican peso include domestic fiscal and monetary shocks external credit shocks and relative price shocks reducing domestic credit growth increasing the uncertainty surrounding this growth and reducing the size and perhaps increasing the frequency of currency realignments might have greatly reduced the amount of currency speculation against the peso between 1980 and 1986 anticipated external credit supply shocks played a relatively minor role during mexico s balance of payments crises

a model of the interactions between banking crises and currency crises abstract a second generation model of currency crises is combined with a standard banking model in a pegged exchange rate regime after funds have been committed to the banks news arrives about the quality of the banks assets and about the exchange rate fundamentals a run on the banks may cause a currency crisis or vice versa there are multiple equilibria with either twin crises or no crisis depending on depositors expectations of other depositors actions suspension of deposit convertibility can prevent a speculative attack on the currency but last resort lending to solvent banks can induce one

speculative currency attacks with endogenously induced commercial bank crises abstract to date all models of exchange rate crises ignore the existence of a commercial banking sector however if deposit money internal drain is used to purchase foreign exchange external drain then an external drain may give rise to a banking crisis the paper illustrates how an internal drain alters the dynamics of a speculative attack when it results in a cash payments restriction by interrupting the external drain such a restriction postpones devaluation and reduces the size of the initial devaluation the us internal and external drains of 1893 are discussed to provide motivation and support for the model

the optimal design of interest rate target changes most central banks currently implement monetary policy by targeting a short term interest rate this paper asks what is the optimal form for such interest rate targeting given the objectives facing central banks we find the optimal rule is for the central bank to change the target rate whenever the deviation between its preferred rate and the current target rate reaches some critical level and in this case the target rate is changed by a discrete amount in the direction of its preferred rate despite the simplicity of this rule we are able to replicate a number of puzzling features of interest rate targeting observed in practice as well as explain some dynamic properties of market interest rates

empowering change the effects of energy provision on individual aspirations in slum communities this paper discusses the role of energy provision in influencing the social aspirations of people living in slums we examine factors that influence the shift in aspirations in five slum settlements using data from 500 interviews conducted in serviced and non serviced slums from the state of gujarat in india the non serviced slums did not have access to basic services namely water sanitation energy roads solid waste and rainwater management we find empirical evidence which suggests that when basic infrastructure provisions are met slum dwellers shift their focus from lower order aspirations to the higher order aspirations like health education housing and land ownership we argue that energy provision enhances productivity and enables slum dwellers to shift their aspirations upwards furthermore we test the effect of work days lost due to illness on the relationship between higher order aspirations and aspirations for energy provision when provision of energy is low higher work day loss dampens higher order aspirations for policy makers this study highlights the critical link between the infrastructure services preferred by slum dwellers and their social aspirations for growth

opaque rather than transparent why the public cannot monitor monetary policy federal reserve officials and many observers of monetary policy claim that the implementation of monetary policy has become more transparent over the last decade this paper argues that monetary policy is anything but transparent because multiple and conflicting goals for monetary policy still exist precise targets for these goals never are defined the fed s economic model is unknown to the public and by confusing its apparent intermediate target variable with its true policy instrument actions taken to be stimulative can be contractionary and vice versa

which road leads to stable money demand this paper denies that the demand for money function is any more unstable than other demand functions and maintains that the controversies regarding unstable money demand are produce by poor methodology that is not shared by other areas of the field of economics when investigating demand function properties this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the role of the banking system in the international transmission of shocks paper analyzes the role of the banking system in the international transmission of financial shocks a channel of transmission is defined as a mechanism through which a financial crisis in one country induces a financial crisis in another country channe ls involving banks operate through changes in the capital adequacy ratios of a common lender and in the value of collateral of domestic borrowers through bank runs and bank panics and through moral hazard recent empirical evidence points to the significant effects of the common lchannel on the probability of a financial crisis while mitigating the role of bank runs and remaining inconclusive about moral hazard thus we introduce a series of indices of vulnerability to the common lender channel that improve existing measures by taking into account both the borrower s dependence on foreign loans and the lender s exposure to a single country by comparing the degree of vulnerabil ity to the common lender channel during the 1990s major crises we find that vulnerability was higher in the asia pacific region in 1997 and especially in the five countries most involved in the crisis than in latin america and east europe vulnerability was significantly lower in 2000 for almost all the countries in our sample due to both a more even distribution of liabilities on the part of developing countries and a higher degree of diversification of bank investments from the three main lending countries united states japan germany

buying and selling attacks on fixed exchange rate systems abstract in this paper we show how rational expectations models of speculative attacks on fixed exchange rate systems can be extended to take into account the possibility that the central bank could be forced to either devalue or revalue essential to the analysis are the concepts of buying attack and selling attack by means of which we were able to describe how expectations about the future exchange rate are formed we also provide a discussion on the problem of uniqueness of the equilibrium that may arise in this kind of speculative attack models

how important is precommitment for monetary policy we quantify the welfare differential between precommitment and discretionary monetary policy in three estimated models of the u s economy by calculating the permanent deviation of inflation from target that in welfare terms is equivalent to moving from discretion to precommitment using a range of reasonable central bank preference parameters this inflation equivalent ranges from 0 05 to 3 6 percentage points with a mid point of either 0 15 or 1 1 5 percentage points depending on the model in addition to the degree of forward looking behavior we show that the existence of transmission lags and or information lags is crucial for determining the welfare gain from precommitment

domestic bank runs and speculative attacks on foreign currencies abstract the paper extends the international transmission of financial crisis literature by illustrating how a domestic bank run can cause a speculative attack on foreign currencies the idea is that when domestic banks invest abroad a domestic bank run will give way to a repatriation of foreign capital if the repatriation causes a depletion of the foreign central bank s foreign exchange reserves then the foreign currency will be devalued as such a devaluation will render domestic banks insolvent in the rational equilibrium domestic bank runs will 1 cause a speculative attack on the foreign currency and 2 be self justified

balance of payments crises and devaluation the collapse of a fixed exchange rate is typically marked by a sudden balance of payments crisis in which speculators fleeing from the domestic currency acquire a large portion of the central bank s foreign exchange holdings faced with such an attack the central bank often withdraws temporarily from the foreign exchange market allowing the exchange rate to float freely before devaluing and returning to a fixed rate regime this paper links the timing of the initial speculative attack to the magnitude of the expected devaluation and to the length of the transitional period off loating an implication of the analysis is that there exist devaluations so sharp and transition periods so short that acrisis must occur the moment the market first learns that the current exchange parity will eventually be altered for sufficiently long transition periods the floating exchange rate overshoots its new peg before appreciating back toward it for shorter periods the rate depreciates monotonically to its new fixed level accordingly the central bank s return tothe foreign exchange market can occasion a capital outflow or a capital inflow this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the mirage of fixed exchange rates this paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets contrary to popular wisdom industrialized country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack but if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange rate peg can be very high the dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 swedish and british crises and the 1994 95 mexican collapse we also discuss the small number of successful fixers

crime and victimization an economic perspective the recent upward trend in crime rates of developing countries has spurred widespread public concern about personal and proprietary insecurity in some countries the questions of crime violence and victimization are attracting more attention from academics and policy makers than traditional economic problems the objective of this paper is to examine the main issues related to crime and victimization from an economic perspective for this purpose the paper combines a review of the main results established in the literature with original research on the causes of crime and the risk factors of victimization the first section provides a review of the estimates of the costs of crime the main theoretical and empirical research on its causes and the relative advantages of official and survey data on crime the second section presents original work on the main causes of violent crime from a cross country perspective the empirical work starts with a basic model of the economic determinants of homicide and robbery rates in turn this empirical model is extended along five dimensions 1 deterrence factors 2 illegal drug related activities 3 demographic issues 4 income and ethnic polarization and 5 social capital the third section reviews recent case studies of latin american cities that rely on survey data to assess the empirical determinants of the probability of victimization these studies focus on three types of risk factors 1 individual characteristics 2 household characteristics and 3 community characteristics the main conclusions from the previous sections are summarized in section four

financial crises and balance of payments crises a simple model of the southern cone experience abstract this paper starts from a simple model of the domestic banking sector and develops the potentially destabilizing macroeconomic consequences of its role in intermediating foreign capital inflows both financial and balance of payments crises may result reminiscent of the southern cone experience

collapsing exchange rate regimes shocks and biases abstract patterns in domestic credit creation stemming from inconsistent fiscal policies have received widespread attention for their role in aggrevating speculative attacks on central bank foreign exchange reserves and contributing to the collapse of exchange rate regimes this paper acknowledges the importance of monetary and fiscal discipline but also emphasizes the importance of other random shocks to the domestic money market most notably shocks from external credit supplies and relative prices policies of the domestic fiscal authorities are only partial catalysts for speculative attacks on a currency expansion of domestic credit stemming from the monetization of fiscal imbalances may be dominated by involuntary domestic credit expansions which are necessitated by surprise shortages in supplies of external capital further the unexpected availability of external capital translates into a lower net critical reserve floor making the depletion of central bank reserves by a speculative attack more difficult to accomplish relative price shocks also randomize the demand for nominal money balances and therefore may also have a strong direct influence on the probability of an exchange regime collapse empirical studies of exchange rate crises that neglect these considerations will produce biased estimates of both expected collapse probabilities and anticipated post collapse exchange rates

central bank reactions to banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes abstract until recently speculative attacks and banking crises have been largely treated as separate phenomena however the recent experiences of several southern cone countries indicates that banking difficulties can lead to a currency crises if in combatting them the central bank adopts policies which are inconsistent with the fixed exchange rate regime the paper illustrates how this can be the case and discusses what are the policy responses available to central banks that face banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes

the linkage between speculative attack and target zone models of exchange rates in this paper we generalize the target zone exchange rate as model formalized by krugman 1988b to include finite sized interventions in defense of the zone the main contributions of these pages consist of linking the recent developments in the theory of target zones to the mirror image theory of speculative attacks on asset price fixing regimes and in using aspects of that linkage to give an intuitive interpretation to the smooth pasting condition usually invoked as a terminal condition this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

estimation of residential electricity demand function in seoul by correction for sample selection bias abstract this paper attempts to estimate the residential electricity demand function in seoul to this end we collected the data from a survey of households in seoul and employed the bivariate model to rectify the undesirable impacts of non response data the results show that the size of family the size of house dummy for having a plasma display panel television dummy for having an air conditioner and the household s income have positive relationships with the residential electricity demand on the other hand electricity price contributes negatively to the residential electricity demand in addition the price and income elasticities were estimated as 0 2463 and 0 0593 respectively implying that residential electricity demand in seoul is price and income inelastic such useful information is expected to help policy makers regulate the residential electricity supply and predict the effect of the price on the residential electricity demand in the future

a new keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning abstract this paper provides a study of the implications for economic dynamics when the central bank sets its nominal interest rate target in response to variations in wage inflation i provide results on the existence uniqueness and stability under learning of rational expectations equilibrium for alternative specifications of the manner in which monetary policy responds to economic shocks when nominal rigidities are present monopolistically competitive producers set prices via staggered price contracts and households set nominal wages in the same fashion in this setting the conditions for determinacy and learnability of rational expectations equilibrium differ from a model where only prices are sticky i find that when the central bank responds to wage and price inflation and to the output gap a taylor principle for wage and price inflation arises that is related to stability under learning dynamics in other words a moderate reaction of the interest rate to wage inflation helps to avoid instability under learning and indeterminacy

a model of the joint distribution of banking and currency crises abstract we develop a simple framework for studying the joint distribution of banking and currency crises we make two points first banking and currency crises are related but they are not the same thing viewing crises in isolation or as joint events biases estimates of the likelihood of crises second the proliferation of government promises such as adding a promise to bail out bank depositors to the promise of fixing the exchange rate reduces the likelihood of keeping any individual promise when the resources devoted to keeping the promises are fixed

the size of banking crises in credible fixed exchange rate regimes abstract since monetary policy is constrained in fixed exchange rate regimes we should observe fewer banking crises due to moral hazard in countries with credible currency pegs however three countries with seemingly credible pegs in the nineteen eighties and nineties namely china hong kong and argentina still suffered crises in their domestic banking sectors the present note illustrates that bank incentives to take on excess risk still exist in countries with currency peg credibility and that the size of that risk exposure and thus the potential for crisis may be positively related to the level of central bank foreign exchange reserves

together or apart the relationship between currency and banking crises abstract the purpose of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the links between currency and banking crises panel data probit and bivariate probit models are estimated to a sample of 21 developed and developing countries having monthly observations between the years 1985 and 2010 the findings indicate that banking crises precede currency crises and vice versa currency crises also indirectly influence future banking crises probability through external shocks liberalized financial markets or highly leveraged banking sectors the study also finds evidence of contemporaneous correlation between the two crises the results not only confirm the theoretical links between banking and currency crises but also underline the importance of higher frequency data in analyzing the relationship between various financial crises

term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia abstract numerous studies have used quarterly data to estimate monetary policy rules or reaction functions that appear to exhibit a very slow partial adjustment of the policy interest rate the conventional wisdom asserts that this gradual adjustment reflects a policy inertia or interest rate smoothing behavior by central banks however such quarterly monetary policy inertia would imply a large amount of forecastable variation in interest rates at horizons of more than 3 months which is contradicted by evidence from the term structure of interest rates the illusion of monetary policy inertia evident in the estimated policy rules likely reflects the persistent shocks that central banks face

capital mobility and coalitional politics authoritarian regimes and economic adjustment in southeast asia this article investigates the coalitional bases of authoritarian rule to explain striking variation in adjustment policy to the asian financial crisis in indonesia and malaysia given currency depreciation with financial sector fragility holders of mobile assets prefer to maintain an open capital account while owners of fixed assets and labor favor restrictions of capital mobility to facilitate expansionary macroeconomic policies differences in adjustment policy across the two countries reflect differences in the political coalitions supporting the authoritarian regimes these findings illuminate the nature of political conflict during financial crises and show how a nuanced view of the coalitions supporting authoritarian rule can yield powerful insights into the political economy of authoritarianism and economic adjustment in a global economy

financial policy and speculative runs with a crawling peg argentina 1979 1981 abstract in this paper we present a model of a balance of payments crisis and examine the argentine experiment with a crawling peg between december 1978 and february 1981 the approach taken allows us to examine the evolution of a crisis when a collapse is not perfectly foreseen and yields plausible estimates of one month ahead probabilities of a collapse of the crawling peg the results suggest that the viability of an exchange rate regime depends on the consistency of exchange rate policy with domestic credit policy if the two are not consistent confidence in exchange rate policy is undermined

managing exchange rate crises evidence from the 1890s abstract this paper investigates the effectiveness of the monetary authority s borrowing policies in resolving exchange rate cises it shows why obtaining loans or lines of credit in foreign currency may avoid at least temporarily the devaluation of a fixed rate and discusses the problem of the optimal size of the loan and or the line of credit the analysis focuses on a particular episode of foreign exchange rate pressure during the troubled years between 1894 to 1896 the results suggest that the borrowing policy followed by the us treasury in those years was effective in avoiding the collapse of the united states gold standard and that the amount of the borrowing undertaken by the treasury might have been optimal

residential electricity demand in taiwan this paper examines the residential demand for electricity in taiwan as a function of household disposable income population growth the price of electricity and the degree of urbanization short and long term effects are separated through the use of an error correction model in the long run the income elasticity is unit elastic the own price effect is negative and inelastic in an error correction framework the short run income and price effects are small and less than the long run effects cooling degree day effects have a positive impact on short run consumption we have used a proxy variable urbanization to capture economic development characteristics and changes in electricity using capital stocks not explained by income the variable provides significant explanatory power to the model both in the short and long run we interpret it as controlling for economic development factors not captured by the pure income effect and we think it holds promise for explaining residential electricity consumption in other developing countries

violent crime does social capital matter this paper examines empirically the effect of some commonly used indicators of social capital such as the prevalence of trust on community members and the participation in voluntary secular and religious organizations on the incidence of violent crimes this is a cross country study whose basic sample consists of 39 developed and developing countries and whose dependent variable is the national intentional homicide rate the paper identifies and deals with three challenges in the empirical estimation of the effect of social capital on the incidence of violent crimes the omittedvariable problem is dealt with by including income inequality and economic growth as additional determinants of a country s violent crime rate the joint endogeneity or reverse causation problem is accounted for by using instrumental variables for social capital in the crime regression the specificity problem that is the potentially opposite effects of group specific and society wide social capital is noted and addressed only indirectly by emphasizing the results applied to the social capital indicators that have application for society as a whole the main result of the paper is that only the component of social capital measured by trust on community members has the effect of reducing the incidence of violent crimes the results regarding measures of other indicators of social capital are rather unclear this may be due to a combination of limited samples inability to fully control for reverse causation and most likely the opposite effects that society wide and group specific social capital may have on violent crime lederman and menendez are economists with the office of the chief economist for latin america and the caribbean of the world bank loayza is a senior economist with the research department of the central bank of chile and he is currently on leave from the development economics research group of the world bank the opinions expressed herein should not be attributed to the world bank the authors are grateful to ed glaeser jeff grogger gale johnson sanjay marwah steve messner nicholas sambanis and an anonymous referee for invaluable comments and suggestions the authors are responsible for any remaining errors

impact of energy subsidies on energy consumption and supply in zimbabwe do the urban poor really benefit abstract twenty percent of zimbabwe s urban poor households are still to be connected to the grid the majority of these households are poor there are several reasons why the zimbabwe urban poor are still not connected to the grid the most important one being the household incomes and the cost of different sources of energy in order to facilitate wider usage of electricity by the poor the policy makers have introduced a subsidy policy the objective of this paper is to ascertain the extent to which the poor urban households could afford the cost of electricity with or without subsidies this gives an indication on whether contrary to the current thinking subsidies are decisive for the affordability of electricity by the urban households the paper also examines the distribution of the subsidies amongst the different urban household income categories and other economic sectors furthermore the impact of such subsidies on the utility s finances is assessed

the timing and size of bank financed speculative attacks abstract the recent epidemic of banking and currency crises has led researchers to consider the role that unhealthy banks may have in currency crises the present paper in contrast investigates the anatomy of a currency crisis when banks are healthy enough to finance it it is shown that when banks finance the crisis an anticipated collapse occurs sooner and an unanticipated collapse is worse than when banks do not increase credit during the crisis the findings imply that restrictions on bank loan activities and careful management of bank balance sheet risks may lessen the severity of or even prevent a currency crisis

strategic complementarities and the twin crises the economic literature has emphasized the role of strategic complementarities in generating banking crises and currency crises motivated by evidence from recent financial crises we study a model where strategic complementarities exist not only within a group of creditors or within a group of currency speculators but also between the two groups the additional type of strategic complementarities generates a vicious cycle between banking crises and currency crises this vicious cycle magnifies the correlation between the two crises and destabilizes the economy we discuss some empirical implications and policy implications and in particular show that due to the interaction between the banking sector and the currency market a lender of last resort might not be able to prevent bank runs

the collapse of the mexican peso what have we learned the collapse of the mexican peso what have we learned in the first quarter of 1995 mexico found itself in the grip of an intense financial panic foreign investors fled the country despite very high interest rates an undervalued currency and financial indicators that pointed to long term solvency the fundamental conditions of the mexican economy cannot account for the extent of the crisis the crisis was not the result of irresponsible fiscal behaviour the crisis was due to unexpected shocks that occurred in 1994 the inadequate policy response to those shocks the increased vulnerability to panic and finally panic itself in the aftermath of the march assassination the exchange rate experienced a nominal devaluation of around 10 and interest rates increased by 7 percentage points however capital outflows continued the policy response was to maintain the exchange rate rule and to prevent further increases in interest rates interest rates were held down by expanding domestic credit and by converting short term peso denominated government liabilities cetes falling due into dollar denominated bonds tesobonos a fall in international reserves and an increase in short term dollar denominated debt resulted the government simply ended up illiquid and therefore financially vulnerable illiquidity exposed mexico to a self fulfilling panic jeffrey sachs aaron tornell and andres velasco

collapsing exchange rate regimes some linear examples abstract we construct a pair of linear examples to study the collapse time of a fixed exchange rate regime the first example is a perfect foresight continuous time model which allows calculation of the exact collapse time and the tracking of reserves the second example is a discrete time stochastic model which yields an endogenous probability distribution over the collapse time and produces a forward discount of the exchange rate

bank runs and currency peg credibility abstract it is shown that as a currency peg constrains a government s ability to finance a bailout bank runs are more likely in credible fixed exchange rate regimes than in those in which the central bank is less committed to its exchange rate within the context of the model and given the government responses to their respective banking crises during the period 1994 1995 the bank runs in argentina and lack thereof in mexico seem to be rational responses of depositors

currency crises and the stock market empirical evidence for another type of twin crisis we explore the dependency between currency crises and the stock market in emerging economies our focus is two fold first the risk of a currency crisis rises as the foreign stake in the domestic stock market increases successful economies with high capital flows into their booming stock markets especially are prone to stock market induced currency crises second we apply the dividend growth model to show that stock markets crash in the run up to a currency crisis this new type of twin crisis is empirically tested by employing a logit framework using quarterly data for 33 emerging economies for 1994q1 2007q4

the exact timing of the collapse of an exchange rate regime and its impact on the relative price of traded goods as of february 28 1983 ninety four countries are classified as having a fixed exchange rate regime 38 are pegged to the u s dollar 13 to the french franc 14 to the special drawing right and 24 to different baskets of currencies the choice of a fixed exchange rate peg implies a specific monetary discipline namely monetary growth equal to the growth rate of the currency or currencies to which a country is pegged monetary policy is thus subject to an exchange rate rule rather than to either a monetary growth rule or alternatively to discretionary policy a fixed exchange rate is a specific case of an active crawling peg where the preannounced rate of change in the exchange rate is zero active crawling peg rules whereby the exchange rate is adjusted downward by a preannounced amount over a specified period of time have been practiced in various places particularly in latin america recent experiments include argentina beginning december 1978 brazil during the 1980 calendar year chile from february 1978 to june 1979 jamaica from may 1978 to may 1979 portugal from august 1977 to june 1979 and uruguay beginning october 1978 1 at times the prean

borrowing to defend the exchange rate and the timing and magnitude of speculative attacks abstract the paper analyses the implications for the timing and magnitude of a speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate of government borrowing to increase the stock of international reserves it is shown that such borrowing reduces the likelihood of an early collapse and increases the likelihood of an eventual collapse the magnitude of the speculative attack also increases

exchange rate crises with domestic bank runs evidence from the 1980s abstract the sherman silver purchase act of 1890 led to inflation fears and a series of flights from the dollar in spite of these runs the dollar was never devalued the question remains why grilli 1990 argues that it was the treasury s ability to borrow that prevented collapse while this explains why the gold standard endured from 1894 to 1896 it does not explain why there was no successful attack before that time the paper argues that the gold standard endured during 1893 because an internal drain of commercial bank funds stopped the external drain a revised series of collapse probabilities is provided and shown to be zero during the internal drain

exchange rate expectations and the pricing of chinese cross listed stocks abstract i show that the price discounts of chinese cross listed stocks american depositary receipts adrs and h shares to their underlying a shares indicate the expected yuan us dollar exchange rate the forecasting models reveal that adr and h share discounts predict exchange rate changes more accurately than the random walk and forward exchange rates particularly at long forecast horizons using panel estimations i find that adr and h share investors form their exchange rate expectations according to standard exchange rate theories such as the harrod balassa samuelson effect the risk of competitive devaluations relative purchasing power parity uncovered interest rate parity and the risk of currency crisis

does the ecb act as a lender of last resort during the subprime lending crisis evidence from monetary policy reaction models abstract we investigate whether the ecb aligns its monetary policy with financial crisis risk in emu member countries we find that since the outbreak of the subprime crisis the ecb has significantly increased net lending and reduced interest rates when banking and sovereign debt crisis risk in vulnerable emu countries greece ireland italy portugal and spain increases while no significant effect is identified for the pre crisis period and relatively tranquil emu countries austria belgium france germany and the netherlands these findings suggest that the ecb acts as a lender of last resort for vulnerable emu countries

analyzing the relationships between information technology inputs substitution and national characteristics based on ces stochastic frontier production models abstract this research examines four interrelated issues at the country level the value of information technology it inputs substitution and complement the complementarity phenomenon created by it and national characteristics and the productivity paradox jointly and critically from a global perspective using the so called productive efficiency as the performance measure to that end we develop the three factor constant elasticity of substitution ces stochastic production frontier model and apply it to a set of panel data from 15 countries over the period 1993 2003 along with the traditional two factor ces models within the one and two equation frameworks in the two equation setting six national characteristics are selected as the contributing factors of the productive efficiency the findings include i the value of it as measured by the productive efficiency is duly recognized ii the productivity paradox is found to be absent from the production process in a majority of developed and developing countries considered rejecting the existing argument that the paradox exists only in developing economies but does not exist in developed countries however the developed countries have used it capital in their production systems more productively efficiently than the developing nations iii traditional capital non it capital traditional labor and it capital are not pairwise substitutable contrary to the notion that they are pairwise substitutable at the firm level iv constant returns to scale as commonly assumed are not supported by the data v different national characteristics affect a country s output represented by gross domestic product or gdp and its productive efficiency differently and vi the complementarity phenomenon is observed in most of the countries developed and developing under study

when zero interest rate differentials signal a lack of currency peg credibility abstract a negative shock to bank insolvency fears causes a positive domestic foreign interest rate differential if the currency peg is credible and a differential equal to zero if it is not this is contrary to what is expected from interest rate parity