arbitrage boundaries treasury bills and covered interest parity abstract this paper uses the covered interest parity relationship to define upper and lower arbitrage boundaries on domestic treasury bill t bill rates adapting the methodology for estimating frontier functions empirical tests are specified to determine whether the arbitrage boundaries provide a binding constraint on the behavior of the domestic t bill rate empirical evidence is presented for the covered canadian t bill rate which indicates that at various times the us t bill rate has been a binding lower boundary and the euro us ollar deposit rate has provided a binding upper boundary

technical change external economies and the porter hypothesis abstract michael porter introduces the idea that environmental regulations may benefit affected firms this paper derives results consistent with porter s hypothesis by employing a general equilibrium framework with a large number of agents external economies of scale in production and discrete changes in technology the model shows that endogenous technical change makes porter s hypothesis feasible however a policy that produces results consistent with porter s hypothesis is not necessarily optimal

cost externalities and corporate diversification abstract this paper examines the optimal time of entry by established firms that strategically exploit cost externalities resulting from experience transfer from their core product line to the entered market established firms may delay entry even under conditions when newborn firms would enter early the paper can also explain other entry scenarios including early diversification at an initial loss into markets that newborn firms would never enter the shape of the experience curve in the entered market strongly affects these differences in scenarios

exchange rates inflation and the sterilization problem germany 1975 1981 when the goals of internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium are in conflict sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange market may provide an independent policy instrument through which the central bank can resolve its dilemma in the short run this paper is concerned with the west german bundesbank s use of sterilization during the recent years of exchange rate flexibility the paper asks whether the bundesbank pursued sterilization during the years 1995 1981 and whether sterilized foreign exchange intervention exerts a significant influence on the exchange rate in the german case estimation of a stylized bundesbank reaction function suggests an affirmative answer to the first of these questions to assess the efficacy of sterilized intervention a structural portfolio balance model of german asset markets and prices is estimated dynamic perfect foresight simulations of the empirical model are used to ascertain whether imperfect substitutability between foreign and domestic bonds is sufficient to allow the bundesbank to attain independent internal and external goals over the short run of about a month the model s verdict is that the bundesbank has little if any power to influence the exchange rate over that time span without altering current or expected future money market conditions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

approximating infinite horizon models in a complementarity format a primer in dynamic general equilibrium analysis abstract we demonstrate the advantages of the complementarity formulation for approximating infinite horizon equilibria in neoclassical growth models as compared with techniques originally developed for optimal planning models the complementarity approach does not require an ex ante specification of the growth rate in the terminal period and is therefore suitable for models with endogenous growth or short time horizons we also consider approximation issues in models with multiple infinitely lived agents changes in net indebtedness over a finite period are estimated as part of the model to obtain a precise approximation of the infinite horizon equilibria with a small number of time periods

dynamic entry and exit with uncertain cost positions abstract we study the dynamics of entry and exit based on firms learning about their relative cost positions each firm s marginal cost of production is its own private information thereby facing ex ante uncertainty about its cost position the inelastic market demand can accommodate only a fraction of firms to operate and thus only firms with relatively lower costs are viable in the long run some firms in the market will exit if excessive entry or overshooting occurs we derive the unique symmetric sequential equilibrium the equilibrium properties are consistent with empirical observations i entry occurs gradually over time with lower cost firms entering earlier than higher cost firms ii exiting firms are among the ones that entered later indeed in the last period moreover equilibrium overshooting probability is shown to always be positive and decreasing over time

dynamics of entry and exit of firms in the presence of entry adjustment costs abstract this paper presents a simple model of industry dynamics with entry adjustment costs these costs imply a non instantaneous adjustment path to the steady state so that the model permits the short run and long run characterization of industry dynamics in a single framework the type of the steady state zero entry and exit or positive entry and exit with the co existence of high efficiency and low efficiency firms depends on the fixed cost of entry as well as entry adjustment costs the short run dynamics exhibits non monotonicity if persistence in efficiency over time is not too high the model is consistent with the empirical observations that the total number of firms and net entry follow non monotonic paths and entry and exit are positively correlated over time

delay and cycles when the profitability of investment depends on the general level of economic activity entrepreneurs have an incentive to delay investments during a recession endogenous delay thus prolongs the recovery from a recession and heightens the effect of the boom this paper describes a dynamic model that exhibits both delay and cycles and develops methods for analysing the role of delay in propogating business cycles a number of interesting characteristics of the cycle are revealed first the effect of delay is asymmetric it lengthens the recovery but not the downturn second delay can increase the amplitude and typically reduces the frequency of the cycle third it can reduce the average level of activity but it achieves this effect by prolonging the recession rather than by reducing the amplitude of the cycle the welfare effects of delay are ambiguous however

technological regimes and schumpeterian patterns of innovation this paper proposes that the specific pattern of innovative activities in an industry can be explained as the outcome of different technological learning regimes a technological regime is defined by the particular combination of technological opportunities appropriability of innovations cumulativeness of technical advances and properties of the knowledge base building upon the distinction between schumpeter mark i and schumpeter mark ii industries this paper provides empirical estimates of the relationships between indicators of the schumpeterian patterns of innovation concentration of innovative activities stability in the hierarchy of innovators and importance of new innovators and indicators of the variables defining technological regimes

influence of social learning on exchange rate policy in developing countries a preliminary finding by using a suitable econometric model this study shows that beyond factors postulated by theorists social learning is a very powerful phenomenon for guiding developing countries in their exchange rate policy we introduce two variables that fairly encapsulate features of learning among neighbours the new variables together with those advanced in theory are then used to determine choice of a managed float by analysing 1993 cross section data from asian developing countries

technology shocks and job flows we consider a version of the solow growth model where technological progress can be investment specific or investment neutral the labour market is subject to search frictions and the existing productive units may fail to adopt the most recent technological advances technological progress can lead to the destruction of technologically obsolete jobs and cause unemployment we calibrate the model to replicate the high persistence that characterizes the dynamics of firms neutral technology and the frequency of firms capital adjustment we find that neutral technological advances increase job destruction and job reallocation and reduce aggregate employment investment specific technological advances reduce job destruction have mild effects on job creation and are expansionary hence neutral technological progress prompts schumpeterian creative destruction while investment specific technological progress operates essentially as in the standard neoclassical growth model using structural var models we provide support to the key dynamic implications of the model copyright 2007 wiley blackwell

modelling long term oil price and extraction with a hubbert approach the lopex model abstract the lopex l ong term o il p rice and ex traction model generates long term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100 in order to determine oil production in non opec countries the model uses hubbert curves hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from opec s intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour thereby opec is faced with both the price dependent production of the non opec competitive fringe and the price dependent world oil demand world oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from acropolis poles lopex results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario and a stagnating market share of maximal 50 to be optimal for opec

discrimination empirical evidence from the united states the study of discrimination received a major impetus in the 1960 s when increasing social attention focused upon race and gender differentials in market outcomes gary becker s the economics of discrimination 1957 strongly influenced empirical research by providing a definition of wage discrimination and suggesting a specific way in which it might operate during the following years new theories were developed and refined in an attempt to explain why there appears to be continued discrimination in spite of market forces presumably operating against it similarly a large amount of empirical work has been done to determine whether and how much discrimination actually exists and to a lesser extent to test the implications of the various theories even so the hope expressed by becker in the preface of the second edition 1971 that our understanding of discrimination would increase so rapidly that the materials in his book would become obsolete before another decade began has clearly not been fulfilled here we review what has been learned in the intervening years and suggest some fruitful directions for future research 1 the focus of this paper like that of most of the empirical research in this area is on determining the extent of discrimination rather than on testing alternative models of discrimination

bridging behavioral and economic theories of decline organizational inertia strategic competition and chronic failure this paper is another plea for bridging behavioral and economic approaches to the study of competition in markets and strategy making by firms the arguments focus on a specific case in point the behavioral theory of organizational decline and the economic modeling of immediate exit the arguments come in three steps first the literature on organizational decline is reviewed by organizing a framework that summarizes arguments from varying economic and organizational perspectives that have for the most part developed independently observations from empirical and theoretical studies are combined in order to investigate the causes conditions courses and consequences of organizational downturn second a theoretical argument is developed that explains voluntary exit and chronic failure by introducing a proxy of organizational inertia in a model of strategic cournot duopoly the key assumptions which have a behavioral flavour that seemingly contradicts orthodox economics are grounded in the theoretical and empirical literatures the results of the model support the claim that pure profit maximizing behavior may be at the expense of organizational survival d aveni 1990 p 135 third by formulating two hypotheses and presenting tentative evidence from the chemical industry the paper hopes to convincingly argue that such integrative models lead to empirical testing of interesting hypotheses a key finding here is that inefficient firms may outlast their efficient rivals cf d aveni 1989a

technology diffusion and international income convergence abstract a macroeconomic model of international income convergence driven by differences in technology is presented ldc firms adopt foreign technology by paying an upfront cost of adaptation and early adopters create a positive externality for followers in equilibrium adoption is gradual and so is income convergence because of the externality small differences in adoption costs across ldcs can lead to large differences in long run income during convergence the ldc economy is dualistic with large high technology firms operating alongside small traditional establishments the effects of trade policy and direct foreign investment are also examined

intra plant diffusion of new technology role of productivity in the study of steel refining furnaces abstract this paper examines intra plant diffusion of new technology in the japanese steel industry the introduction of the basic oxygen furnace bof was the greatest breakthrough in steel refining in the last century using unique panel data the paper estimates total factor productivity by technology type and associates the estimates with intra plant diffusion the paper finds that intra plant diffusion accounts for about a half of the industry productivity growth large plants are likely to adopt the new technology earlier but retain the old technology longer than their smaller counterparts

wage discrimination in the reemployment process this paper examines wage discrimination by gender in the reemployment market by looking at the experiences of unemployed individuals and decomposing their wage gap upon reemployment the neumark decomposition technique is extended to incorporate selectivity and counter factual estimates are used to explain the development of the wage gap over time whereas total discrimination upon reemployment is declining over time the part directly attributable to hiring is increasing policy makers should consider that employers constrained by existing legislation that does not address hiring issues directly are switching over to discriminatory hiring practices that are becoming relatively easier to adopt less likely to be detected and harder to prove in a court of law

political vs currency premia in international real interest differentials a study of forward rates for 24 countries abstract different approaches to quantifying the degree of capital mobility for a cross section of currencies particularly saving investment correlations and tests of real interest parity have appeared to show a surprisingly low degree of financial integration we use a new data set forward rate data for 24 countries including many small industrialized countries and seven ldcs to decompose the real interest differential into two parts the covered interest differential or political premium and the real forward discount or currency premium the latter in turn can be decomposed into the exchange risk premium and expected real depreciation we find a high degree of capital mobility across political boundaries for most of the g 11 countries plus hong kong and singapore for our sample period of 1982 to 1987 even for most of the other ldcs and smaller industrialized countries for which covered interest parity clearly fails the political premium is not as big a component of the real interest differential as the currency premium france would appear to have higher capital mobility than most by the criterion of real interest differentials but is seen in fact to have low capital mobility by the criterion of covered interest differentials a clear example of the superiority of the latter criterion

covered interest arbitrage in the 1970 s abstract this paper provides an empirical overview on covered interest arbitrage during the flexible exchange rate regime of the 1970 s it estimates the cost of transactions in foreign exchange and security markets and shows that these costs account for most of the deviations from parity

uncertainty risk and incentives theory and evidence uncertainty has qualitatively different implications than risk in studying executive incentives we study the interplay between profitability uncertainty and moral hazard where profitability is multiplicative with managerial effort investors who face greater uncertainty desire faster learning and consequently offer higher managerial incentives to induce higher effort from the manager in contrast to the standard negative risk incentive trade off this learning by doing effect generates a positive relation between profitability uncertainty and incentives we document empirical support for this prediction this paper was accepted by wei jiang finance

a note on male female wage differences in west germany this paper examines wage discrimination by gender in the reemployment market by looking at the experiences of unemployed individuals and decomposing their wage gap upon reemployment the neumark decomposition technique is extended to incorporate

international interest rate linkages and the exchange rate regime abstract return differentials between instruments denominated in canadian dollars and instruments denominated in american dollars are investigated the study compares the properties of return differentials in the period of fixed exchange rates during the 1960s and in the period of flexible exchange rates during the 1970s and 1980s both real and nominal return differentials are investigated the results indicate that the change in exchange rate regime is not associated with a change in the average level of ex post return differentials between canada and the united states models which predict ex ante return differentials from available information in a rational expectations framework show a surprisingly large amount of structural stability across the regime change the major impact of the flexible exchange rate regime is on the variance of ex post return differentials and not on the average level of ex post or ex ante return differentials jel e42 e58 g15

on industry life cycles delay entry and shakeout in beer brewing abstract this paper proposes a new explanation for industry shakeout an event evident in the life cycle of many industries in which the number of firms drops significantly in a short interval of time based on an in depth analysis of the shakeout in the united states beer brewing industry between 1880 and 1890 we propose that industry shakeouts naturally follow periods of mass entry by firms similar patterns are evident in two other industries we briefly examine the us automobile and tire industries while entry rates fluctuate broadly in all these industries we find that the timing of exit for a given cohort of entrants is remarkably similar over time the exit hazard rate is peaked in the first two years of every cohort s life and drops dramatically to low and stable levels for subsequent ages in this sense mass exit follows mass entry and does not require a deep explanation it is the mass entry evident in the data for these industries that requires an explanation we propose a theoretical model of information accumulation to explain entry into an industry entrepreneurs are uncertain about the profitability of the industry and this uncertainty is resolved through sufficient accumulation of information regarding the fortunes of incumbent firms delay in entry occurs solely due to the fact that it takes time to accumulate sufficient information to support more entry the resulting entry pattern from simulations of the model looks much like that observed in the industries we study

vintage human capital growth and the diffusion of new technology we develop a model of vintage human capital in which each technology requires vintage specific skills we examine the properties of a stationary equilibrium for our economy the stationary equilibrium is characterized by an endogenous distribution of skilled workers across vintages the distribution is shown to be single peaked under general conditions there is a lag between the appearance of a technology and its peak usage a phenomenon known as diffusion an increase in the rate of exogenous technological change shifts the distribution of human capital to more recent vintages thereby increasing the diffusion rate

let s get real a factor analytical approach to disaggregated business cycle dynamics this paper develops a method for analysing the dynamics of large cross sections based on a factor analytic model we use law of large numbers arguments to show that the number of common factors can be determined by a principal components method the economy wide shocks can be identified by means of simple structural var techniques and that the parameters of the unobserved factor model can be estimated consistently by applying ols equation by equation we distinguish between a technological and a non technological shock identification is obtained by minimizing the negative realizations of the technology shock empirical results on 4 digit industrial output and productivity for the u s economy from 1958 to 1986 show that 1 at least two economy wide shocks both having a long run effect on sectoral output are needed to explain the common dynamics 2 although the technological shock accounts for at least 50 of the aggregate dynamics of output it cannot by itself explain dynamics at business cycle frequencies 3 sector specific shocks explain the main bulk of total variance but generate mainly high frequency dynamics 4 both the technological and the non technological component of output show a peak for positive sectoral comovements of output at business cycle frequencies 5 technological shocks are strongly correlated with the growth rates of the investment in machinery and equipment sectors and their inputs many interesting questions about cyclical fluctuations and economic growth can be answered only by studying the dynamic behaviour of sectoral variables when data contain information on time for a large cross section of sectors traditional econometric techniques used in the macroeconomic literature such as vector autoregressive var and vector autoregressive moving average varma models are not appropriate since they require the estimation of too many parameters this is why new methods which allow for the reduction of the parameter space need to be developed the objective of this paper is both methodological and descriptive at the methodological level we develop a simple framework for the dynamic analysis of large cross sections the basic model is a dynamic factor analytic model as in sargent and sims 1977 the sectoral variables are decomposed into two unobservable components a common component driven by macroeconomic shocks and a purely sectoral component when

timing and quality decisions for entrepreneurial product development abstract an entrepreneur is developing a new product and each period must decide whether to enter the market or to continue development we formulate a model of this decision for ventures facing diminishing returns to product quality and for which funding availability product development success and market competition growth are uncertain we characterize the profit maximizing time to stop product development and enter the market and then show how this stopping time is affected by changes in the business environment by further focussing our modeling assumptions we are able to translate our time based criteria into product quality terms we propose that management set a target quality level that the product must meet in order for the venture to maximize profit we also demonstrate that management should decrease this target and hence the quality of the final product over time and adjust it to respond to changes in the business context

departures from interest rate parity further evidence abstract daily data are used to test the theory of interest parity between the irish pound and three major currencies the tests are carried out within the context of a model suggested by pippenger 1978 and the statistical methodology used is spectral analysis the pippenger model emphasises the relaxation of two important implicit assumptions the exogeneity of the interest differential and the assumed infinitely elastic supply of arbitrage funds which have tended to characterise previous studies we attempt to reconcile our results which are generally supportive of interest parity with the exchange control arrangements currently in force in ireland

complementarity and cumulative learning effects in early diffusion of multiple technologies this paper concentrates on the contextual diffusion of flexible automation production and design engineering technologies in the italian metalworking industry the authors use duration data analysis with explanatory covariates to point out the role of complementarities between the technologies examined and learning by using effects matured with experience of previously available technologies in shaping diffusion paths the impact of industry and plant specific control variables as well as that of the stock of previous adopters on adoption probabilities is also taken into account in addition the authors analyze duration versus calendar time dependence of adoption probabilities copyright 1995 by blackwell publishing ltd

externalities and complementarities in telecommunications dynamics abstract this paper focuses on the complementarities between the international diffusion of computers and the variance in the levels of telecommunications revenue per installed line in 30 countries the economic analysis elaborates on the marshallian notion of derived demand the hypothesis is that the increasing variance in the levels of telecommunications traffic per line across countries is a consequence of the growing levels of computer communication which in turn can be approximated by the diffusion of computers empirical analysis confirms the strong positive correlation between computer density and telecommunications intensity

evolutionary trends of industry variables abstract the paper offers empirical evidence on the evolutionary trends of industry variables it investigates the time path of patents product price and quantity and number of firms from the first introduction of a product to maturity of the market the paper extends earlier work by gort and klepper by expanding the data on products through 1991 and augmenting it with new products and new data sources the reexamination of the aging patterns reveal the gort and klepper results to be robust the time trends follow the expected patterns with remarkable consistency and are strongly significant for most products new evidence on patenting activity reveal an eventual decline in technological activity over the later years of the product market life cycle

employers discriminatory behavior and the estimation of wage discrimination this paper considers the linkage of empirical estimates of wage discrimination between two groups introduced by oaxaca 1973 to a theoretical model of employers discriminatory behavior it is shown that conditional on different assumptions about employers discriminatory tastes oaxaca s estimators of wage discrimination can be derived that the approach is more generally useful is demonstrated by deriving an alternative estimator of wage discrimination based on the assumption that within each type of labor e g unskilled skilled the utility function capturing employers discriminatory tastes is homogeneous of degree zero with respect to labor inputs from each of the two groups the estimators are compared empirically in an application to male female wage differentials

frictionless technology diffusion the case of tractors many new technologies display long adoption lags and this is often interpreted as evidence of frictions inconsistent with the standard neoclassical model we study the diffusion of the tractor in american agriculture between 1910 and 1960 a well known case of slow diffusion and show that the speed of adoption was consistent with the predictions of a simple neoclassical growth model the reason for the slow rate of diffusion was that tractor quality kept improving over this period and more importantly that only when wages increased did it become relatively unprofitable to operate the alternative laborintensive horse technology jel l62 n51 n52 n71 n72 o33 q11 understanding the determinants of the rate at which new technologies are created and adopted is a critical element in the analysis of growth even though modeling equilibrium technology creation can be somewhat challenging for standard economic theory understanding technology adoption should not be specifically once the technology is available the adoption decision is equivalent to picking a point on the appropriate isoquant dynamic considerations make this calculation more complicated but they still leave it in the realm of the neoclassical model a simple minded application of the theory of the firm suggests that profitable innovations should be adopted instantaneously or with some delay depending on various forms of cost of adjustment the evidence on the adoption of new technologies seems to contradict this prediction jovanovic and lach 1997 report that for a group of 21 innovations it takes 15 years for its diffusion to go from 10 percent to 90 percent the 10 90 lag they also cite the results of a study by grubler 1991 covering 265 innovations who finds that for most diffusion processes the 10 90 lag is between 15 and 30 years 1

purchasing power interest rate parities and the modified fisher effect in presence of tax agreements abstract this paper shows that in a world with different rates of inflation and taxation in the presence of an international tax agreement the simultaneous coexistence of the purchasing power parity mechanism the interest rate parity mechanism and the revised fisher effect is impossible the analysis reveals a possible inherent instability of interest rates and exchange rates generated by inflation this instability is greater the larger the tax rate differentials among countries

the law of one price in the eurocurrency market abstract this paper studies the interest rate parity arbitrage condition in the eurocurrency market in the period 1967 to 1980 the results suggest that this market is relatively efficient with few opportunities for arbitrage profits turbulance associated with external shocks to this market is relatively short lived the evidence indicates that the foreign exchange and eurocurrency markets respond rapidly to monetary shocks

entry exit and diffusion with learning by doing early entry has the advantage of higher revenues per unit of output early on late entry has the benefit of learning from the experience of earlier entrants and hence lower production costs the advantages are balanced off in a continuous time perfect foresight equilibrium competition generates s shaped diffusion and staggered entry and exit a monopolist will innovate less than a competitive industry but the innovation that he does do he will do sooner copyright 1989 by american economic association

models of technology diffusion abstract the literature on new technology diffusion is vast and it spills over many conventional disciplinary boundaries this paper surveys the literature by focusing on alternative explanations of the dominant stylized fact that the usage of new technologies over time typically follows an s curve the most commonly found model which is used to account for this model is the so called epidemic model which builds on the premise that what limits the speed of usage is the lack of information available about the new technology how to use it and what it does the leading alternate model is often called the probit model which follows from the premise that different firms with different goals and abilities are likely to want to adopt the new technology at different times in this model diffusion occurs as firms of different types gradually adopt it there are actually many ways to generate an s curve and the third class of models which we examine are models of density dependence popularized by population ecologists in these models the twin forces of legitimation and competition help to establish new technologies and then ultimately limit their take up finally we look at models in which the initial choice between different variants of the new technology affect the subsequent diffusion speed of the chosen technology such models often rely on information cascades which drive herd like adoption behaviour when a particular variant is finally selected

optimal timing of technology adoption abstract in a dynamic programming framework this paper investigates the optimal timing of technology adoption by a competitive firm when technology choice is irreversible and the firm faces a stochastic innovation process with uncertainties about both the speed of the arrival and the degree of improvement of new technologies a numerical example illustrates how the optimal timing decision is affected by changes in parameter values reflecting market conditions the firm s initial technological attributes and the characteristics of the stochastic innovation process some of these effects turn out to be in sharp contrast to common intuition contrasting the optimal decision rule derived here with the rule obtained under the net present value shows that the former implies a slower pace of adoption than implied by the latter the optimal decision rule is generalized for the case of multiple technology switches and it is shown that for all the switching decisions except the last one the optimal rule satisfies the net present value criterion

shakeouts and market crashes this article provides a microfoundation for the rise in optimism that seems to precede market crashes small young markets are more likely to experience stock price run ups and crashes we use a zeira rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain optimism then grows rationally if traders prior distribution over market size has a decreasing hazard such prior beliefs are appropriate if most new markets are duds and only a few reach a large size the crash occurs when capacity outstrips demand as an illustration for the period 1971 2001 we fit the model to the telecom sector

on the diffusion of new technology a game theoretic approach this paper is an attempt at a rigorous albeit not exceedingly general analysis of the diffusion of new technology in particular consider an industry composed of two firms each using the current best practice technology the firms are assumed to be operating at nash equilibrium output levels generating a market price given demand and profit allocations when a cost reducing innovation is announced each firm must determine when if ever to adopt it based in part upon the discounted cost of implementing the new technology and in part upon the behavior of the rival firm if either firm adopts before the other it can expect to make substantial profits at the expense of the other firm on the other hand the discounted sum of purchase price and adjustment costs may decline with the lengthening of the adjustment period as various quasi fixed factors become more easily variable therefore although waiting costs the firm more in terms of foregone profits it may save money on the cost of purchasing the new technology thus the firm must weigh the costs and benefits of delaying adoption as well as take account of its rival s strategic behavior

a dynamic general equilibrium analysis on fostering a hydrogen economy in korea hydrogen is anticipated to become one of the major alternative energy technologies for a sustainable energy system this study analyzes the dynamic economic impacts of building a hydrogen economy in korea employing a dynamic computable general equilibrium cge model as a frontier technology hydrogen is featured as having a slow diffusion rate due to option value positive externality resistance of old technology and complementary vintages without government intervention hydrogen derived energy will supply up to 6 5 of final energy demand by 2040 simulation outcomes show that as price subsidy rates increase by 10 20 and 30 hydrogen demand will increase by 9 2 15 2 and 37 7 respectively of final energy demand by 2040 the output of the transportation sector will increase significantly while demands for oil and electricity will decline demands for coal and lng will experience little change household consumption will decline because of the increase of income taxes overall gdp will increase because of the increase in exports and investments co2 emission will decline for medium and high subsidy rate cases but increase for low subsidy cases ultimately subsidy policy on hydrogen will not be an effective measure for mitigating co2 emission in korea when considering dynamic general equilibrium effects

industry competition and firm human capital this paper argues that objective and subjective human capital may have substantial impact upon organizational performance in a competitive context objective human capital pertains to such features as education and experience whereas subjective human capital relates to personality characteristics the argument is illustrated by presenting the results of two empirical studies 1 a cross section 1990 1991 analysis of about 50 incumbents in the flemish furniture industry concentrating on the impact of subjective human capital particularly the chief executive officer s ceo s locus of control personality on financial performance and 2 a longitudinal 1970 1992 analysis of a cohort of 100 entrants into the dutch audit industry focusing on the influence of objective human capital particularly education and experience on exit by merger and acquisition m a or diaspora both studies support the claim that objective and subjective human capital matters for example flemish furniture firms headed by a ceo with an internal locus of control trait reach higher levels of financial performance and dutch audit firms with a high proportion of personnel with business experience are more likely to exit the industry over the years as a result of diaspora finally the data of the flemish furniture and dutch audit industries are re analyzed so as to compare the impact of human capital variables on small firm performance in both industries this re analysis reveals that in both industries the impact of human capital variables is more pronounced in large firms compared to small businesses

a dynamic model of entry and exit in a growing industry the potential demand in a new industry evolves over time demand is initially low but advertising by the industry s early entrants can speed up demand growth however there is intrinsic uncertainty of the demand level in each period and uncertainty of the demand evolution path which can be affected by the underlying economic environment we construct a dynamic model that features the stochastically and endogenously expanding demand of a new industry and we investigate the optimal entry and exit behavior of firms as the industry evolves we find that firms incentive to enter early depends critically on the cost that early entrants have to pay in developing the market when the cost is high and the benefit spills over to potential entrants firms have an incentive to wait and the probability of entry can increase with the number of incumbents under certain circumstances firms entry strategy is also influenced by the transition of economic states firms are more likely to enter under a state that shows the prospect of demand taking off soon we also find that in the early stage of an industry higher demand uncertainty can induce faster entry

a hydrogen economy and its impact on the world as we know it an assortment of governmental technological environmental and economic factors has combined to spur renewed interest in alternatives to petroleum and especially in hydrogen while there is no clear consensus on the viability of the technology governments and corporations alike have vigorous hydrogen research programs the result is that hydrogen may stand on the verge of becoming a true successor to oil a transition from oil to hydrogen would alter familiar global economic and political structures in profound ways the ramifications will influence developed and developing nations oil importers and exporters alike new alliances among governments corporations and other groups may challenge existing notions of governance although a hydrogen based economy may be decades away the vision for it requires near and mid term thinking to manage the transition smoothly further hydrogen is only a metaphor any change from the current oil economy will entail dramatic changes to the global status quo that must be planned for now