stock price reactions as surrogates for the net cash flow effects of corporate policy decisions abstract this paper adopts a rational market structure to examine the link between the cash flow effects of management policy decisions and the resulting stock price reactions the focus is on testing cross sectional associations between cash flow effects and the underlying characteristics of affected firms we find that it is not possible to infer the sign of association between the stock price reaction and any characteristics of the firm that are observable before management announces its decision our methodological suggestions involve exploiting either a priori assumptions or sample information about the probability distribution of unobservable decision variables underlying the management decision process

economic growth and institutions some sensitivity analyses 1961 2000 do institutions help explain macroeconomic performance this article addresses two issues first especially given the practical implications of the literature measurement of institutions should avoid tautologies and therefore this study uses econometrics to estimate the effect of objectively measurable institutions such as labor market organization financial development fiscal federalism and political regime type second the growing literature on these promising factors in turn is unfortunately incommensurable because previous studies fail to control for other institutional and in some cases standard economic variables given data on up to ninety four countries from 1961 through 2000 extreme bound analysis eba an econometric technique that addresses the sensitivity of previous findings to alternative assumptions about model specification suggests that some institutions associated with the organization of labor and capital are robust correlates of investment few data support the view that variables related to the organization of the state including fiscal federalism and political regime type affect macroeconomic performance without implication the author thanks richard nelson doug chalmers robert shapiro alessandra casella brendan o flaherty geoffrey garrett alexander hicks brett hammond mark kesselman the editor lisa martin and two anonymous referees for helpful comments also ross levine peter rousseau geoffrey garrett and torben iversen were very helpful in locating data the views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the board of governors of the federal reserve system or any member of its staff

economic growth strategies the effects of ideological partisanship on interest rates and business taxation in the united states we reformulate the partisanship thesis in light of four claims leveled against it the reformulated version ideological partisanship is based upon the theory that similar rates of economic growth may follow from the different use of policy instruments owing to their role as determinants of investment and growth interest rates business taxation rates and the redistribution of the tax burden between capital gains and earned income are examined we advance models that take into account other views of politics beside the partisan one and test for political influences the united states is characterized by very pronounced partisan differences in national economic policy with democratic administrations seeking to promote growth through a consumption driven while republican administrations promote an investment driven strategy democratic administrations also seek to shift the tax burden toward corporations and owners of capital these findings are examined in light of the comparative political economy literature we conclude that the forms and institutional foundations of left partisan policies differ among democratic capitalist countries

does consumer sentiment forecast household spending if so why in the three months following the iraqi invasion of kuwait the university of michigan s index of consumer sentiment ics fell an unprecedented 24 3 index points to its lowest level since the 1981 1982 recession this collapse in household confidence became the focus of a great deal of economic commentary and indeed frequently was cited as an important if not the leading cause of the economic slowdown that ensued concern was fueled by the well known contemporaneous correlation between the ics and the growth of household spending figure 1 shows quarterly averages of the index 1978 1993 together with the quarterly growth in real personal consumption expenditures as measured in the national income accounts bureau of economic analysis the correlation is impressive of course it is not surprising that sentiment and the growth of spending are positively correlated this correlation may simply reflect that when economic prospects are poor households curtail their spending and also give gloomy responses to interviewers thus the contemporaneous correlation between sentiment and spending does not refute traditional life cycle or permanentincome models of consumption nor does it necessarily make the job of forecasting changes in consumption any easier from the point of view of an economic forecaster the questions of interest are first whether an index of consumer sentiment has any predictive power on its own for future changes in consumption spending and second whether it contains information about future changes in consumer spending aside from the information contained in other available indicators in section i we present evidence that the answer to the first question is a clear yes we find that lagged values of the ics taken on their own explain about 14 percent of the variation in the growth of total real personal consumption expenditures over the post1954 period further investigation shows that the answer to the second question is probably yes as well though here the margin is narrower and the evidence more murky the ics contributes about 3 percent to the r2 of a simple reduced form equation for total personal consumption expenditures in the longer of the two sample periods we examine but nothing in the shorter sample period though the latter result is heavily influenced by the observation for 1980 2 for the major subcategories of spending the contribution generally ranges between 1 percent and 8 percent overall we read the evidence as pointing toward at least some significant incremental explanatory power therefore we take as given for the remainder of the paper that sentiment forecasts spending and we turn to the issue of how that statistical relationship should be interpreted one possible interpretation is that sentiment is an independent driving factor in the economy and that changes in carroll division of research and statistics stop 80 federal reserve board washington dc 20551 fuhrer research department federal reserve bank of boston boston ma 02106 wilcox division of monetary affairs stop 71 federal reserve board washington dc 20551 we have benefited from the research assistance of stephen helwig and christopher geczy and the comments of an anonymous referee the views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not of the federal reserve board the federal reserve bank of boston or the other members of the staff of either institution ithe conference board s consumer confidence index also plunged at the same time

earnings management under price regulation empirical evidence from the spanish electricity industry abstract this paper analyses the effect of price regulation on the accounting policy of spanish electricity companies over the period 1991 2001 as predicted by the political costs hypothesis watts and zimmerman 1986 watts r l zimmerman j l 1986 positive accounting theory prentice hall englewood cliffs nj managers artificially reduce reported earnings when the government establishes tariff increases in this way companies attempt to diminish their political visibility and counteract social outcry arising from the government s decision several abnormal accruals models existent in the literature are used to obtain a proxy for managerial accounting discretion on earnings

replacement of agricultural price supports by area payments in the european union and the effects on pesticide use this article determines the contribution of recent european union agricultural policy reforms on the use of pesticides our theoretical model extends the multioutput generalization of the lichtenberg zilberman damage control technology model developed by chambers and lichtenberg our empirical analysis uses farm level data for a sample of french farms results suggest that price effects on the use of pesticides are always more elastic than area payment effects this indicates that policy reforms consisting of a reduction in price supports in favor of area payments may reduce application of crop protection inputs such policy changes which represent a certain degree of decoupling took place under the 1992 common agricultural policy reforms

let the good times roll the economic expectations of u s voters increasingly the concept of expectation is utilized to explain political choices with voters being depicted as prospective rather than retrospective in their orientations this paper tests competing theories of economic expectations forecasts with data from consumer surveys 1960 91 forecasts of inflation confirm the hypothesis of adaptive expectations but forecasts of general economic conditions do not nor do those forecasts conform to rational expectations instead voter forecasts of economic conditions are prone to a significant asymmetry while good economic times tend to foster optimism in an adaptive fashion bad times do not similarly feed pessimism instead they trigger a reverse forecast we explore this remarkable behavior in the light of psychological economics

market based empirical research in accounting a review interpretation and extension a decade and a half of the most concerted and ambitious research effort in accounting history is evaluated here it is the search into the relationship between publicly disclosed accounting information and the consequences of the use of this information by the major group of usersequity investors as such consequences are reflected in characteristics of common stocks traded in major exchanges this research effort known as market based accounting research mbar obtained its impetus from major developments in finance theory during the late 1950s and early 1960s these were the portfolio selection theory and its offspring the capital asset pricing model capm and the concept of informationally efficient capital markets ecm subsequent developments in information economics agency theory and optimal incentive signaling models were quickly incorporated into mbar while the impetus to this line of research came from other disciplines accounting was not only a beneficiary but also to a modest extent a benefactor mbar is relevant to the study of capital market efficiency the capm information economics and regulation this contribution distinguishes mbar from most accounting areas whose contributions to other disciplines are negligible in

depreciation policy changes tax earnings management and investment opportunity incentives abstract contrary to previous studies we find managers change depreciation policies in predictable ways we identify three dimensions of depreciation policy changes whether it is a method change or an estimate revision whether it is income increasing or decreasing and whether it applies to new assets only or both new and existing assets this disaggregation leads to three findings first a 1981 tax law altered the frequency of estimate revisions and method changes second firms adopting income increasing method changes for all assets experience worse performance than those adopting such changes only for new assets finally non income increasing policy changes are associated with changes in investment opportunities

normal inputs and joint production with allocatable fixed factors when jointness is caused by allocatable fixed factors in the normal case the marginal cost of any output increases as any other output increases the supply of any output decreases as any other output price increases and an input price increase may cause the supply of some outputs to increase

the impact of sfas no 8 on equity prices of early and late adopting firms abstract this study examines the economic consequences of statement of financial accounting standards no 8 sfas no 8 compared to a matched control group both early adopters and late adopters of sfas no 8 exhibited significantly negative excess returns in the exposure draft release period even after adjusting for a size effect in january weighted least squares and ordinary least squares cross sectional regressions were compared the late adopter regressions weakly support contracting and political cost theories

spatial heterogeneity contract design and the efficiency of carbon sequestration policies for agriculture abstract in this paper we develop methods to investigate the efficiency of alternative contracts for carbon c sequestration in cropland soils taking into account the spatial heterogeneity of agricultural production systems and the costs of implementing more efficient contracts we describe contracts being proposed for implementation in the united states and other countries that would pay farmers for adoption of specified practices per hectare contracts we also describe more efficient contracts that would pay farmers per tonne of soil c sequestered and we show how to estimate the costs of implementing these more efficient contracts in a case study of a major agricultural region in the united states we confirm that the relative inefficiency of per hectare contracts varies spatially and increases with the degree of spatial heterogeneity the results also show that per hectare contracts are as much as five times more costly than per tonne contracts a degree of inefficiency similar to that found in assessments of command and control industrial emissions regulations measurement costs to implement the per tonne contracts are found to be positively related to spatial heterogeneity but are estimated to be at least an order of magnitude smaller than the efficiency losses of the per hectare contract for reasonable error levels this finding implies that contracting parties could afford to bear a significant cost to implement per tonne contracts and achieve a lower total cost than would be possible with the less efficient per hectare contracts

the economic consequences of accounting choice implications of costly contracting and monitoring abstract in this paper we review research into the economic consequences of voluntary and mandatory choices of accounting techniques and standards we discuss how the predictions of extant economic consequence theories are driven by contracting and monitoring costs associated with management compensation contracts bond covenants regulation and or political visibility we review empirical tests of economic consequence theories categorize those tests and discuss their strengths and weaknesses the empirical tests reveal two systematic associations with accounting choice size a proxy for political visibility and leverage a proxy for contracting and monitoring costs of lending agreements interpretation of the results is difficult due to general limitations of the tests we conclude by suggesting some directions for future research based on our analysis of the potential payoffs associated with different types of empirical tests

the magnitudes of financial statement effects and accounting choice the case of the adoption of sfas 87 abstract we examine the accounting choice decision in the context of the timing of adoption of sfas 87 unlike most prior studies we consider interactions between firm characteristics and the magnitudes of the financial statement effects of an accounting decision we expect that including interactions will both enhance the ability to explain accounting choice and facilitate distinction between omitted variables ball and foster 1982 and hypothesized relations results are consistent with these expectations

voters information heterogeneity and the dynamics of aggregate economic expectations theory it is argued here that previous studies analyzing the formation of voters economic expectations overlook important subtleties found in a differentiated heterogeneous electorate since different segments of the electorate possess varying information capabilities it is asserted that they will form their prospective economic evaluations differently from one another hypotheses the impact of expectational electoral cycles news coverage of the economy reported by voters retrospective economic evaluations and personal financial expectations are hypothesized to have a differential impact on their economic expectations based on varying levels of information education among subsets of the electorate methods time series multiple regression analysis is conducted for the monthly period between january 1978 and december 1990 the empirical analysis involves testing for the properties of the statistical time series i e integration and cointegration as well as specification of an error correction mechanism ecm that captures long run statistical relationships in appropriate circumstances results these findings uncover electoral heterogeneity based on information education differences with respect to voters prospective economic evaluations specifically the information capabilities of voters is inversely related to their reliance on past retrospective sources of information when forming both egocentric and sociotropic economic expectations the main implication of this research is that the assumption of electoral homogeneity contained in previous longitudinal analyses of aggregate economic opinion formation provides misleading results that either overlook intra electoral variations introduce aggregation bias or possibly both

profit maximizing land use revisited the testable implications of non joint crop production under land constraint this article derives new implications for the land allocation and production decisions of profit maximizing farm firms where production of different crops is non joint but subject to a constraint on the total land area these implications are observable and thus subject to empirical scrutiny an estimable model of crop production land allocation and input use decisions is derived that permits joint production and enables the implications of non joint but land constrained production to be tested this may improve econometric estimates of cross price elasticities of supply by linking models of land use and production decisions and allowing non jointness to be imposed where appropriate copyright 2013 oxford university press

modeling supply response in a multiproduct framework the paper models multiproduct supply response in agriculture and tests key assumptions traditionally maintained in supply response studies the technology is approximated by a restricted profit function the properties of the restricted profit function are imposed during estimation the hypothesis that maintains the existence of output price and quantity indexes that satisfy the adding up property is rejected the existence of individual production functions for each output is also rejected unless joint production is permitted the estimates of responsiveness of a particular commodity to changes in own price or prices of competing outputs are likely to be considerably understated

structural agricultural land use modeling for spatial agro environmental policy analysis this paper develops a spatially disaggregated structural econometric model of agricultural land use and production based on the joint multi output technology representation introduced by chambers and just 1989 starting from a flexible specification of the farm profit function we derive land use allocation input application crop yield and livestock intensity equations in a joint and theoretically consistent framework to account for the presence of censored observations in micro level data the model is estimated as a system of two limit tobit equations via quasi maximum likelihood we present an empirical application using fine scale spatial data covering the entirety of england and wales and including the main economic policy and environmental drivers of land use change in the past forty years a simulation of the effects of diffuse pollution reduction measures illustrates how our approach can be applied for agro environmental policy appraisal

evidence on the effect of bond covenants and management compensation contracts on the choice of accounting techniques the case of the depreciation switch back abstract provisions of bond indenture agreements and management compensation contracts are examined to derive testable implications concerning management s incentives to choose among alternative accounting techniques the hypotheses are subjected to empirical examination by investigating the voluntary change from accelerated to straight line depreciation for financial reporting purposes only the methodology utilized incorporates an expectations model of accounting earnings in an attempt to separate out of the effects of earnings announcements from accounting change announcements which are often concurrent the evidence from both price and non price data is not consistent with the general hypothesis that bond covenants and management compensation contracts are important determinants of the decision to change depreciation techniques five potential explanations for the results are offered

negotiated accounting rules in private financial contracts abstract this paper explores how private contracts tailor gaap and whether tailoring reflects the characteristics of the contracting parties the analysis reveals that contracts of bank and insurance lenders are different with bank agreements closer to public debt tailoring is one of several characteristics associated with insurance lending agreements the extensive tailoring of gaap income in insurance contracts enforces dividend and payout restrictions that are consistent with the interest of long term insurance lenders in contrast bank lenders deal with borrowers default risk by negotiating shorter maturities security sinking funds and loan syndication

animal spirits the effect of economic expectations on economic output the public is characterized as able forecasters of future economic performance they engage in rational expectations empirical evidence exists to bolster the claim this article considers the possibility that the public does more than predict economic output they may engage in a self fulfilling prophecy where belief about the future economy translates into personal financial behaviour e g consumption and investment that actually drives economic performance after controlling for rational expectations with elite forecasts leading indicators and past economic performance it is shown that between 5 and one third of the variance in economic output can be explained by prospective economic sentiment this result has broad implications for electoral behaviour research

aggregation of test statistics an evaluation of the evidence on contracting and size hypotheses abstract more powerful tests of a theory of choice of accounting methods and the effect of changes in these choices on equity values are provided the power increase comes from efficiently aggregating results across studies one conclusion is that at least six variables common to more than one study have explanatory power these variables are managerial compensation leverage size risk and constraints on interest coverage and dividends another conclusion is that the posterior probability that the theory taken as a whole has explanatory power is close to one this conclusion includes the effect of variables that only appear in one study

a new view of political accountability for economic performance most political support models imply that in evaluating economic performance voters use a standard that would provide poor predictions of the future and leave the economy vulnerable to manipulation by vote hungry politicians drawing on macroeconomic theory we develop a simple standard of evaluation which encompasses a concern not only for current economic outcomes but also for accurately assessed future consequences of current policies we find that political support for the president can be explained as well by models that assume that voters use this sophisticated standard as by models that assume voter naivete our analysis questions the wisdom of measures typically used to assess voter evaluation of economic performance in a variety of theoretical contexts the results also help to explain the absence of convincing evidence that governments exploit voter ignorance in manipulating the economy

relation between market model prediction errors and omitted variables a methodological note a number of accounting studies have examined market model prediction errors to evaluate the share price effects of various events such as voluntary or mandatory accounting changes a common approach is to examine the prediction errors around the event date of a portfolio of potentially affected firms this approach has been extended recently through the use of cross sectional regressions e g leftwich 1981 holthausen 1981 collins rozeff and dhaliwal 1981 sepe 1982 and chow 1983 in which prediction errors or raw returns are regressed on firm specific variables such as size the purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of some recent findings in finance for the various finance based empirical accounting studies in general two types of omitted variables from the standard capital assets pricing model have been identified first several studies have reported that certain firm specific variables such as size banz 1981 and reinganum 1981 earnings yield basu 1975 1983 and dividend payout ratio litzenberger and ramaswamy 1979 may be omitted variables from the standard capm in addition other studies have found some special time series characteristics of stock returns such

allocatable fixed inputs and jointness in agricultural production implications for economic modeling allocatable fixed inputs such as land are a potentially important source of jointness in agriculture as with other causes of jointness they necessitate multiple product systems for modeling product supply and input demand in other important ways however their analytical implications are very different from other causes of jointness model specification differs demand functions for the quantities of each input used in the production of individual commodities can be derived if a primal approach is used but such allocation equations cannot in general be identified from a dual specification available allocation data are not even useful in such dual estimations

the political and economic origins of consumer confidence economic conditions the story usually goes influence consumer confidence which in turn influences both political evaluations and votes but we have little sense of the origins of consumer confidence itself it is generally assumed that monthly reports of the nation s level of consumer confidence respond to objective economic conditions we argue that politics is important for understanding consumer sentiment beyond what we know from economic conditions specifically we demonstrate a direct effect of political evaluations of the president s management of the economy the party of the president extraordinary political events and monetary policy as well as an indirect effect of media coverage of the economy on consumer sentiment after controlling for economic conditions when news coverage is positive citizens give favorable evaluations leading to more positive sentiment our findings suggest that understanding the political economy requires an emphasis on the causal effect of politics as well as economics

debt covenant violation and manipulation of accruals abstract this paper examines the abnormal accruals of a sample of 94 firms that reported debt covenant violations in annual reports we expect debt covenant restrictions to influence accounting choices in the year preceding and the year of violation time series and cross sectional models are used to estimate normal accruals in the year prior to violation both models indicate that abnormal total and working capital accruals are significantly positive in the year of violation there is evidence of positive abnormal working capital accruals after controlling for management changes and auditor going concern qualifications

misspecification of capital asset pricing this study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one period capital asset pricing model capm is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient in particular portfolios based on firm size or earnings price e p ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the capm furthermore the abnormal returns persist for at least two years this persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency rather the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified however the data also reveals that an e p effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect the firm size effect largely subsumes the e p effect thus while the e p anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than e p ratios

financial contracting and the choice between private placement and publicly offered bonds the financial contracting in private placement bonds and publicly offered bonds are different our data show that private placement bonds are more likely to have restrictive covenants than public bonds private placement bonds are also more likely to be issued by smaller and riskier firms for investment grade firms that issue bonds in both markets our analysis shows that firms select the bond type to minimize financing costs we find significant differences in the pricing of private placement and publicly offered bonds and some of these differences appear to be related to the different institutional features between the two markets

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

determinants of the corporate decision to capitalize interest abstract until 1974 firms could choose within gaap to capitalize or expense interest costs associated with capital expenditures the predominant practice had been to treat interest as a period expense however in 1974 the securities and exchange commission imposed a moratorium on further adoption of interest capitalization by non regulated firms this study empirically examines economic factors potentially influencing firms decisions to expense or capitalize interest prior to the sec moratorium we hypothesize that the choice may be affected by 1 the existence of management compensation agreements tied to reported earnings 2 debt covenant constraints and 3 the political costs for some firms of reporting higher earnings when compared to the control group our findings are that 1 the frequency of explicit management compensation packages was not greater for the interest capitalization group 2 firms with financial ratios closer to likely debt agreement constraints on dividends interest coverage and leverage tended to elect interest capitalization and 3 other than the largest firms in the politically sensitive petroleum refining industry the larger firms were more likely to capitalize interest

on cross sectional analysis in accounting research abstract this paper examines cross sectional analysis procedures common to many market based accounting research papers both the economic and econometric properties of levels and returns studies are discussed topics covered include the relations between the accounting studies and cash flow valuation models the role of expectations of accounting variables deflators spurious inference risk adjustment and its relation to growth size and leverage residual dependence dependence among explanatory variables and the effect of scale differences across firms major conclusions are that market value is the correct deflator in returns studies and that levels and returns studies are economically but not econometrically equivalent

mandated accounting changes and debt covenants the case of oil and gas accounting abstract the relationships among mandated accounting changes bond covenants and security prices has been the focus of several studies these studies have provided mixed evidence on the existence of a bond covenant effect on security prices this paper suggests that inconclusive prior results are a consequence of inappropriately measuring the default risk of debt using an option pricing framework it is shown that the debt to equity alone is not an adequate measure of default risk in particular both the debt to equity ratio and the total risk of the firm are necessary to adequately model the bond covenant effects of an accounting change these theoretical propositions are supported by the empirical analysis of the security market reaction to changes in oil and gas accounting

peasants or bankers the american electorate and the u s economy t he usual model of electoral reaction to economic conditions assumes the retrospective economic voter who bases expectations solely on recent economic performance or personal economic experience voter as peasant a second model assumes a sophisticated economic voter who incorporates new information about the future into personal economic expectations voter as banker using the components both retrospective and prospective of the index of consumer sentiment ics as intervening variables between economic conditions and approval we find that the prospective component fully accounts for the presidential approval time series with aggregate consumer expectations about long term business conditions in the approval equation neither the usual economic indicators not the other ics components matter moreover short term changes in consumer expectations respond more to current forecasts than to the current economy the qualitative result is a rational expectations outcome the electorate anticipates the economic future and rewards or punishes the president for economic events before they happen economics moves political behavior with hard times administrations lose support with good times they gain it we know this to be true but when we ask how by what processes the political translation of economic experience occurs the an

the effects of debt covenants and political costs on the choice of accounting methods the case of accounting for r d costs abstract until 1974 firms could capitalize or expense all or part of their research and development r d costs managerial choice between these two alternatives is hypothesized to be affected by the existence of debt covenants which employ accounting numbers relating to leverage interest coverage and ability to pay dividends in addition the use of public versus private debt is hypothesized to affect the accounting choice due to differential renegotiation costs lastly a political cost hypothesis is tested this study uses a multivariate statistical technique the generalized jackknife the results suggest that firms which capitalized r d costs were more highly levered used more public debt were closer to dividend restrictions and were smaller than firms which expensed r d costs

consumer confidence and economic fluctuations if consumers become pessimistic about the state of the economy can there be a slowdown in output even if their pessimism is not based on economic fundamentals recent macroeconomic models show the answer is yes if there are strategic complementarities and multiple equilibria we investigate the link between consumer confidence and economic fluctuations using vector autoregressions in all models after controlling for economic fundamentals the hypothesis that consumer sentiment does not cause gnp in the granger sense can be rejected variance decompositions suggest that consumer sentiment accounts for between 13 and 26 percent of the innovation variance of gnp

negotiated measurement rules in debt contracts this paper investigates contractual definitions of net income and net worth and the cross sectional variation in definitions of net income in a large sample of private debt contracts to shed light on the debt contracting demand for accounting numbers the descriptive evidence indicates that removing transitory earnings is one principal concern in the measurement of earnings but not in the measurement of net worth in the extreme contracts are never written on comprehensive income as an earnings concept whereas accumulated other comprehensive income is included in net worth in most contracts in contrast conservative adjustment in the sense of including certain types of negative earnings but not the corresponding positive earnings does not seem to be a primary consideration in measuring net income and net worth cross sectionally i find that net income is more likely to be defined differently from the gaap when net income plays a more important role in a contract when the loan maturity is longer and when transitory earnings are less useful for debt contracting collectively the evidence shows that debt contracting parties choose contracting variables in a manner consistent with efficient contracting and that transitory earnings are relatively less useful in measuring firm performance for debt contracting

an empirical examination of debt covenant restrictions and accounting related debt proxies abstract prior studies of discretionary accounting choices have generally relied on one or more proxy variables to measure closeness to debt covenant restrictions without actually examining the existence or extent of restrictive covenants this study tests the validity of the most commonly used proxy the debt equity ratio by examining its relation to actual debt covenant restrictions for a random sample of u s firms the results indicate that several versions of the debt equity ratio capture the existence and tightness of retained earnings restrictionsand the existence of net tangible asset and working capital restrictions but are unrelated to four other covenant restrictions

evidence of the impact of mandatory changes in accounting principles on corporate loan agreements abstract the theory in this paper predicts that mandatory changes in accounting princples can affect the measurement rules defined in restrictive covenants in firms lending agreements consequently those mandatory changes can have an impact on the value of a firm s equity even if the changes appear to be merely cosmetic this contracting cost theory is tested by examining of both event related and cross sectional abnormal performance of the equity of a sample of firms when the accounting princples board changes accounting princples for business combinations the theory provides at best in incomplete explanation of the observed abnormal performance

debt covenants and accounting choice abstract in this issue duke and hunt and press and weintrop show that leverage is significantly related to the existence of and closeness to accounting based debt covenants alternative rationales for this relation are presented the theory requires more rigorous specification to define closeness to covenants and determine which measure of leverage produces a more appropriate proxy for closeness to covenants then healy and palepu investigate a sample of firms close to their dividend restriction and find in general they are no more likely than other firms to change accounting methods their sample selection criteria reduces the generalizability of their results

the proposed introduction of current cost accounting in the u k determinants of corporate preference abstract this paper examines the corporate reaction to a major u k accounting proposal the 1976 exposure draft which called for the introduction of current cost accounting as the primary accounting convention written submissions to the u k rule making body are analyzed and four categories of preference identified probit analysis reveals that the expected cost of compliance is the most significant factor in shaping corporate preference in addition firms at risk of government investigation are more likely to support and service sector firms are more likely to oppose the proposed standard

an approach to statistical inference in cross sectional models with security abnormal returns as dependent variable several recent event studies test hypotheses about the association between event related abnormal security returns and firm characteristics using a three step procedure first forecast model parameters are estimated usually parameters of a market model second prediction errors or residuals are computed over an event period third prediction errors are regressed cross sectionally on firm characteristics hypothesized to influence the impact of the event on share values results of these regressions are used to draw inferences about the relation between abnormal returns and firm characteristics researchers who employ three step procedures acknowledge that crosssectional ols regressions lead to valid inferences if the disturbances are iid normal in cross section see for example leftwich 1981 p 23 and lustgarten 1982 p 138 while sufficient assumptions to draw valid inferences from ols regressions are clear these assumptions are violated if there is cross correlation and cross sectional heteroscedasticity in the firm return processes from which the prediction errors are estimated assumptions about the processes generating these prediction

performance measures in earnings based financial covenants in debt contracts this paper examines how performance measures are defined in major earnings based financial covenants in loan contracts to shed light on the economic rationales underlying the contractual use of performance measures i find an earnings based covenant is typically based on a performance measure close to earnings before interest tax amortization and depreciation expenses ebitda however my empirical analyses show that ebitda is less useful in explaining credit risk than earnings before interest and tax expenses ebit and even the bottom line net income thus measuring credit risk cannot fully explain the choice of accounting performance measures in earnings based covenants i conjecture that contracting parties choose an ebitda related measure instead of a measure calculated after depreciation and amortization expenses e g ebit to make the performance measure less sensitive to investment activities which can be controlled through other contractual terms such as a restriction on capital expenditure and provide empirical evidence consistent with this conjecture

taxes and firm size abstract firm size has been used as a proxy for the firm s political costs and hence managers proclivity to choose income reducing accounting procedures this study provides additional evidence on this topic by examining the association between firm size and effective corporate tax rates the latter are one component of a firm s political costs the roughly fifty largest u s exchange listed firms in particular oil and gas companies and manufacturing firms have significantly higher worldwide tax rates than other firms these higher tax rates are observed primarily after the implementation of the u s 1969 tax reform act and after the opec countries raised their tax rates on u s oil producers the findings which are insensitive to alternative sources of data alternative measures of firm size and alternative measures of effective tax rates are consistent with the use in previous studies of firm size as a proxy for the firm s political costs

an empirical study of selected factors influencing the decision to list on foreign stock exchanges the growing internationalization of capital markets suggests that an increasing number of firms perceive the benefits of listing their stocks on foreign exchanges as outweighing the related costs many other firms however still limit listing their securities to their domestic exchanges this study investigates the motives for listing abroad the empirical analyses based on data on 481 multinationals indicate significant association between the likelihood of listing abroad and 1 the relative size of a firm in its domestic capital market 2 the ratio of foreign to total sales

analyst following and count data econometrics abstract this paper reexamines the determinants of the number of analysts following a firm using econometric models based on count distributions we replicate bhushan s 1989 analyst following study to demonstrate the effects of using count data econometrics in lieu of ols in studying phenomena where the dependent variable ranges among nonnegative integers in contrast with the original paper our findings indicate the number of institutional investors is inversely related with analyst following we also provide econometric evidence to support the preferred use of the negative binomial model in estimating cross sectional analyst following regressions

the effect of accounting procedure changes on ceos cash salary and bonus compensation abstract this paper examines the effect of accounting procedure changes on cash salary and bonus compensation to ceos we estimate whether there is an adjustment to the statistical relation between compensation and corporate earnings following changes that lower earnings fifo to lifo inventory valuation and that raise earnings accelerated to straight line depreciation the results indicate that 1 subsequent to these changes salary and bonus payments are based on reported earnings rather than earnings under the original accounting method and 2 the potential compensation effect of the changes is small compared to the effect of economy or industry wide changes in compensation

an income strategy approach to the positive theory of accounting standard setting choice abstract this paper is designed to provide additional evidence on the positive theory of accounting policy choice by combining individual accounting principles into firm income strategies these strategies were the dependent variable in a probit analysis where the independent variables were size management compensation industry concentration ratio systematic risk capital intensity and the total debt to total asset ratio the results indicate that four of these factors size management compensation concentration ratio and the total debt to total asset ratio have a significant association with the choice of a firm s income strategy this test provides strong evidence consistent with the positive theory of accounting standard setting choice we also present evidence that smaller firms and or firms in less concentrated industries do not appear to make accounting policy choice decisions that are consistent with this theory

the economic determinants of the market reaction to proposed mandatory accounting changes in the oil and gas industry a cross sectional analysis abstract this paper examines the economic reasons for the observed negative abnormal common stock performance of firms whose reported earnings and stockholders equity were negatively affected by the proposed elimination of full cost accounting in the oil and gas industry four explanations of the market effects of this mandatory accounting change are examined 1 naive investor theory 2 modified naive investor theory 3 contracting cost theory and 4 estimation risk theory these hypotheses are developed in detail and used to generate variables for a cross sectional model which explains observed return behavior the effect of the accounting change on total stockholder s equity the existence of financial contracts denominated in terms of accounting numbers and to a lesser extent firm size are shown to be important explanatory variables the importance of these variables is consistent with both the contracting cost and estimation risk theories

does it pay to change your company s name a stock market perspective a company s name is commonly considered to be an integral part of its image just like the quality of its products or the quality of its technical services changing a company s name is a major policy decision contemplated by many firms and actually implemented by some each year this paper attempts to examine albeit indirectly whether a name change can improve the profit performance of a firm and what type of firm is more likely to succeed in doing so we use the event study methodology developed in finance to examine the above questions with respect to 58 corporations that changed their names in 1981 1985 our findings are that for most of the firms name changes are associated with improved performance and that the greatest improvement tends to occur in firms that produce industrial goods and whose performance prior to the change was relatively poor evidence that industrial good producers are also heavy users of corporate advertising lends further credence to this finding our findings do not support however the contention that the new name per se will enhance demand for the firm s products rather it seems that the act of a name change serves as a signal that other measures to improve performance such as changes in product offerings and organizational changes will be seriously and successfully undertaken the rationale behind why such a signal is sent and why it is believed is discussed

estimation of area elasticities from a standard profit function this article demonstrates that both crop area and output elasticities can be calculated from a profit function a chambers just profit function which includes land allocations as quasi fixed factors is used to derive shadow price equations for each crop area allocation jointly solving these shadow price equations for crop area makes it possible to calculate individual crop area elasticities a profit function is specified to represent agricultural producers in the state of iowa shadow price equations are jointly estimated with output supply and input demand equations from these estimated equations we derive the individual crop area response and output response to a change in prices

the personal and political underpinnings of economic forecasts recently a great deal of attention has been focused on the impact of prospective evaluations of the economy on vote choice yet little attention has been focused on the actual process whereby such evaluations are formed this paper employs panel data to test a model of the formation of prospective evaluations of inflation and unemployment our findings indicate that retrospective assessments of economic conditions do not greatly influence economic forecasts instead economic forecasts are shaped by personal economic circumstances and partisan assessments of governmental performance the political implications of such findings are discussed