default premiums in commodity markets theory and evidence we model the effect of nonperformance risk on forward and futures pricing and look for evidence of nonperformance risk in precious metals futures prices from the hunt brothers episode changes in default premiums are measured and related to the sequence of events in the metals markets during this period results suggest first that ex ante costs of nonperformance can be a significant priced factor in commodity markets and second that the arrival of new information is often associated with changes in these costs the evidence has implications for both theoretical and empirical research on commodity markets organized commodity markets offer traders an efficient medium in which to execute their hedging and speculative strategies in particular the markets have developed mechanisms that reduce the costs of nonperformance which would be substantial in the absence of an organized exchange devices such as margin requirements position limits daily marking to market price limit moves and the clearinghouse reduce the expected costs of distress and default in commodity markets while organized exchanges greatly reduce expected costs of nonperformance they do not eliminate such costs throughout the history of organized futures trading there have been many instances of markets collapsing or coming to the brink of collapse after a period of unusual trading activity the most prominent example in recent times is the near collapse of the new

solving asset pricing models when the price dividend function is analytic we present a new method for solving asset pricing models which yields an analytic price dividend function of one state variable to illustrate our method we give a detailed analysis of abel s asset pricing model a function is analytic in an open interval if it can be represented as a convergent power series near every point of that interval in addition to allowing us to solve for the exact equilibrium price dividend function the analyticity property also lets us assess the accuracy of any numerical solution procedure used in the asset pricing literature

arbitrage continuous trading and margin requirements this paper studies the impact that margin requirements have on both the existence of arbitrage opportunities and the valuation of call options in the context of the blackscholes economy margin restrictions are shown to exclude continuous trading arbitrage opportunities and with two additional hypotheses still to allow the black scholes call model to apply the black scholes economy consists of a continuously traded stock with a price process that follows a geometric brownian motion and a continuously traded bond with a price process that is deterministic continuous trading security market models constitute a significant area of continuing reesearch in financial economics these models form the basis of the option pricing methodology see merton 16 for a review and current intertemporal asset pricing models see merton 15 breeden 3 and cox ingersoll and ross 5 given the importance of these models it is of no surprise that there has been significant academic concern see dybvig 9 cox ingersoll and ross 4 p 341 and ingersoll 13 pp 13 25 over the discovery of a continuous trading strategy by harrison and kreps 10 called the doubling strategy that generates a sure dollar from a zero investment the existence of this doubling strategy violates a basic premise of the option pricing methodology the premise of no arbitrage opportunities given this violation the question naturally arises as to whether the option pricing methodology is internally consistent fortunately harrison and pliska 11 showed that the exclusion of arbitrage opportunities and the doubling strategy does not invalidate the familiar derivation of the black scholes call option formula the exogenous exclusion of these doubling strategies is somewhat arbitrary however types of constraints that exclude continuous trading arbitrage opportunities were studied by kreps 14 harrison and kreps 10 and dybvig 9 these papers provide constraints that are unsatisfactory from an institutional point of view since they have no market analogue margin requirements on the other hand have a market analogue one purpose of this paper is to show that margin requirements also exclude continuous trading arbitrage opportunities to make this argument self contained we first provide a unified framework that synthesizes the previously stated results our assertion concerning margin re

the role of business subsidies in job creation of start ups gazelles and incumbents this study contributes to the empirical literature concerning the role of business subsidies in job creation our empirical analysis using an extensive firm level data suggests that the impact of business subsidies on employment growth differs more between high growth start ups and other firms than between start ups and incumbents on average all subsidies relate positively to the contemporary employment growth for both start ups and incumbents furthermore after subsidy reception the employment of both start ups and older incumbents receiving employment or other subsidies grows more than that of non subsidized firms however we find that business subsidies do not provide a significant additional boost to either contemporary or after subsidy growth for young high growth companies there are apparently some other factors that promote growth in young high growth firms these factors help foster strong growth in many cases with or without subsidies

why do stocks and consumption imply such different gains from international risk sharing abstract estimates of the gains to international risk sharing based upon stock returns tend to find dramatically higher gains than do estimates from consumption based models in this paper i examine the reasons for these differences using a common theoretical framework for both approaches i find that the differences are largely due to the much higher variability of stock returns and its implied intertemporal substitution in marginal utility also contrary to conventional wisdom the differences in gains from the two approaches do not arise from treating stock returns as exogenous rather than endogenous

the politician and his banker should the european union grant state aid through an institution like the european investment bank this paper evaluates the efficiency of different measures for granting state aid we use a theoretical model with firms that differ in their creditworthiness and compare different types of subsidies with indirect subsidization through public banks we find that in a large parameter range the politician prefers public banks to direct subsidies because they avoid windfall gains to entrepreneurs and they economize on screening costs for similar reasons they may increase social welfare relative to subsidies one important prerequisite for this result is that public banks must not be allowed to fully compete with private banks however from a welfare perspective a politician uses public banks inefficiently often

r d support programs in developing countries the turkish experience in this study the determinants of private r d investment are examined at the level of firms in the turkish manufacturing industry we focus our attention on the effect of public r d support programs our findings indicate that public r d support significantly and positively affects private r d investment there seems to be even an acceleration effect on firm financed r d expenditures smaller r d performers benefit more from r d support and perform more r d in addition technology transfer from abroad and domestic r d activity show up as complementary processes given the scarcity of studies on r d support in technologically weaker economies our hope is that the less developed countries can exploit these findings in constructing socially beneficial technology policies

independent private value auctions bidder behaviour in first second and third price auctions with varying numbers of bidders the symmetric equilibrium of third price auctions is characterized it makes a number of contrasting predictions relative to firms and second price auctions bids exceed private values the marginal effects on bids of an increase in private values is greater than one increasing numbers of bidders reduces bids and risk aversion requires bidding below the risk neutral nash equilibrium in the experiment bidders do not always satisfy the point predictions of the theory however the game theoretic models correctly anticipate at least directionally the important effects of the price rule changes copyright 1993 by royal economic society

the effects of public r d subsidies on firms innovation activities the case of eastern germany this study analyzes the effects of public r d policy schemes on the innovation activities of firms in eastern germany the main question in this context is whether public funds stimulate r d activities or simply crowd out privately financed r d empirically we investigate the average causal effects of all public r d schemes in eastern germany using a nonparametric matching approach compared to the case in which no public financial means are provided it turns out that firms increase their innovation activities by about four percentage points

optimality of incomplete markets abstract in a static exchange economy where the traders initial endowments are risky the optimality of the financial structure is studied when markets are incomplete only financial structures with the same number of assets are compared a market structure is optimal when in a particular economy it yields an allocation of risks which cannot be pareto dominated through the implementation of any other market structure in a linear gaussian setup the optimal market structures are shown to span an eigenspace of a matrix which combines the risk exposures of the participants in the market approximately weighted by a measure of their risk aversions journal of economic literature classification numbers d60 g10

optimal financial market integration and security design 1 we study 2 period pure exchange capital asset pricing model capm economies with incomplete financial markets and restricted participation we characterize the optimal financial market structure and efficient innovations consisting of both the introduction of new assets and the integration of segmented markets welfare gains from innovations are maximal when the endowments of affected agents are negatively correlated uncoordinated innovations lead to efficient market structures if all assets have identical participation structure or the markets being integrated trade identical assets however coordination failure in the introduction of new assets may result when assets have participation structures that overlap only partially

do financial constraints hold back innovation and growth evidence on the role of public policy abstract this paper provides evidence that capital market imperfections hold back innovation and growth and that public policy can complement capital markets we deliver the evidence by studying the effects of government funding on the behavior of smes in finland by adapting the methodology recently proposed by rajan and zingales rajan r g zingales l 1998 financial dependence and growth american economic review 88 pp 559 587 to firm level data we show that government funding disproportionately helps firms from industries that are dependent on external finance we demonstrate that the result is economically significant and robust to a variety of tests

is public r d a complement or substitute for private r d a review of the econometric evidence is public r d spending complementary and thus additional to private r d spending or does it substitute for and tend to crowd out private r d conflicting answers are given to this question we survey the body of available econometric evidence accumulated over the past 35 years a framework for analysis of the problem is developed to help organize and summarize the findings of econometric studies based on time series and cross section data from various levels of aggregation laboratory firm industry country the findings overall are ambivalent and the existing literature as a whole is subject to the criticism that the nature of the experiment s that the investigators envisage is not adequately specified we conclude by offering suggestions for improving future empirical research on this issue

the expected utility of the doubling strategy it has been noted that a certain continuous time trading strategy termed the doubling strategy generates a positive net return on borrowed funds with probability one and within a finite period of time since the doubling strategy seems to represent a free lunch or arbitrage opportunity a variety of constraints to render it infeasible have been proposed in this paper we show that the doubling strategy generates infinite disutility for a large class of utility functions and we can think of no utility function for a risk averse agent which is a counterexample harrison and kreps 5 pointed out that a certain continuous time trading strategy in frictionless markets since termed the doubling strategy generates a positive net return on borrowed funds with probability one and within a finite period of time moreover the returns can be made arbitrarily large by increasing the initial amount borrowed thus the doubling strategy seems to represent a free lunch or arbitrage opportunity the theory of valuation of derivative assets also assumes continuous time trading in frictionless markets an assumption necessary to argue that the derivative asset can be perfectly hedged by the underlying asset and the risk free asset as in black and scholes 2 or equivalently that the returns on the derivative asset can be replicated by a self financing trading strategy see harrison and kreps 5 or harrision and pliska 6 in addition it must be assumed that the economy is free of arbitrage opportunities so that the continuously revised hedge portfolio earns the risk free rate or again equivalently that the value of the derivative asset is equal to the replicating strategy s initial portfolio consequently harrison kreps and others have viewed the existence of the doubling strategy and its apparent violation of the arbitrage free economy condition as a serious problem in contingent claims theory more generally the doubling strategy seems to suggest an inconsistency in standard sets of assumptions e g diffusion type asset prices frictionless continuous time markets and market efficiency when sufficiently complex trading strategies are permitted since the doubling strategy was introduced by harrison and kreps a number of constraints have been proposed to eliminate the doubling strategy without at the same time ruling out the other continuous time trading strategies essential to derivative asset pricing and continuous time portfolio theory bounds on portfolio positions kreps 9 a positive constraint on wealth dybvig 3 and margin requirements heath and jarrow 7 more generally dybvig and huang 4 show that a lower bound on wealth precludes other complex trading strategies

the pre programme earnings dip and the determinants of participation in a social programme implications for simple programme evaluation strategies the key to estimating the impact of a programme is constructing the counterfactual outcome representing what would have happened in its absence this problem becomes more complicated when agents such as individuals firms or local governments self select into the programme rather than being exogenously assigned to it this paper uses data from a major social experiment to identify what would have happened to the earnings of self selected participants in a job training programme had they not participated in it we investigate the implications of these earnings patterns for the validity of widely used before after and difference in differences estimators

r d and subsidies at the firm level an application of parametric and semi parametric two step selection models this paper analyzes the effects of public r d subsidies on r d expenditure in the german manufacturing sector the focus is on the question whether public r d funding stimulates or crowds out private investment cross sectional data at the firm level is used by apllying parametric and semiparametric selection models it turns out that public funding increases firms r d expenditure altough the magnitude of the treatment effect depends on the assumpions imposed by the particular selection model

asset prices and consumption in a model of perpetual youth i construct a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents and obtain analytical solutions to asset prices consumption and asset demands individuals have constant absolute risk aversion and a constant probability of dying agents have three stages in their lives in the first stage agents are young and constrained from investing in stocks in the second stage they work and in the third they retire i analyze asset prices numerically and with comparative statics changing any exogenous parameter has large effects on asset prices when there are large demographic changes to the population constrained from investing in stocks

an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices this paper develops a continuous time general equilibrium model of a simple but complete economy and uses it to examine the behavior of asset prices in this model asset prices and their stochastic properties are determined endogenously one principal result is a partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy the solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in the economy in this paper we develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model for use in applied research an important feature of the model is its integration of real and financial markets among other things the model endogenously determines the stochastic process followed by the equilibrium price of any financial asset and shows how this process depends on the underlying real variables the model is fully consistent with rational expectations and maximizing behavior on the part of all agents our framework is general enough to include many of the fundamental forces affecting asset markets yet it is tractable enough to be specialized easily to produce specific testable results furthermore the model can be extended in a number of straightforward ways consequently it is well suited to a wide variety of applications for example in a companion paper cox ingersoll and ross 7 we use the model to develop a theory of the term structure of interest rates many studies have been concerned with various aspects of asset pricing under uncertainty the most relevant to our work are the important papers on intertemporal asset pricing by merton 19 and lucas 16 working in a continuous time framework merton derives a relationship among the equilibrium expected rates of return on assets he shows that when investment opportunities are changing randomly over time this relationship will include effects which have no analogue in a static one period model lucas considers an economy with homogeneous individuals and a single consumption good which is produced by a number of processes the random output of these processes is exogenously determined and perishable assets are defined as claims to all or a part of the output of a process and the equilibrium determines the asset prices our theory draws on some elements of both of these papers like merton we formulate our model in continuous time and make full use of the analytical tractability that this affords the economic structure of our model is somewhat similar to that of lucas however we include both endogenous production and

the stop loss start gain paradox and option valuation a new decomposition into intrinsic and time value the downside risk in a leveraged stock position can be eliminated by using stop loss orders the upside potential of such a position can be captured using contingent buy orders the terminal payoff to this stop loss start gain strategy is identical to that of a call option but the strategy costs less initially this article resolves this paradox by showing that the strategy is not self financing for continuous stock price processes of unbounded variation the resolution of the paradox leads to a new decomposition of an option s price into its intrinsic and time value when stock price follows geometric brownian motion this decomposition is proven to be mathematically equivalent to the black scholes 1973 formula article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the significance of the market portfolio the market portfolio is in one sense the least important portfolio to provide to investors in an j agent one period stochastic endowment economy where preferences are quadratic a social welfare minded contract designer would never create a contract that would allow trading the market portfolio even the complete set of contracts all j 1 of them which achieve a first best solution never span the market portfolio these conclusions rely on the assumption that the contract designer has perfect information about agents utilities we also show that as the contract designer s information about agents utilities becomes more imperfect the optimal contracts approach contracts that weight individual endowments in proportion to elements of eigenvectors of the variance matrix of endowments then if there is a strong enough market component to endowments a portfolio approximating the market portfolio may be the most important portfolio

r d in smes a paradox this paper has three objectives 1 to survey the relevant literature addressing the apparent paradox of research development investments carried out within small and medium enterprises 2 to provide focused summaries of the articles in this special issue 3 to draw some general conclusions in terms of policy implications

the relationship between r d collaboration subsidies and r d performance empirical evidence from finland and germany this study focuses on the impact of innovation policies and r d collaboration in germany and finland we consider collaboration and subsidies as heterogeneous treatments and perform an econometric matching to analyze r d and patent activity at the firm level in general we find that collaboration has positive effects in germany subsidies for individual research do neither exhibit a significant impact on r d nor on patenting but the innovative performance could be improved by additional incentives for collaboration for finnish companies public funding is an important source of finance for r d without subsidies recipients would show less r d and patenting activity whilst those firms not receiving subsidies would perform significantly better if they were publicly funded copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

infinite horizon incomplete markets the model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets is a generalization of the arrow debreu model which provides a rich framework for studying problems of macroeconomics this paper shows how the model which has so far been restricted to economies with a finite horizon can be extended to the more natural setting of an open ended future thereby providing an extension of the finite horizon representative agent models of modern macroeconomics to economies with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets there are two natural concepts of equilibrium over an infinite horizon which prevent agents from entering into ponzi schemes that is from indefinitely postponing the repayment of their debts the first is based on debt constraints which place bounds on debt at each date event the second is based on transversality conditions which limit the asymptotic rate of growth of debt the concept of an equilibrium with debt constraint is a natural concept of equilibrium for macroeconomic analysis however the concept of an equilibrium with transversality condition is more amenable to theoretical analysis since it permits the powerful techniques of arrow debreu theory to be carried over to the setting of incomplete markets in an economy in which agents are impatient expressed by the mackey continuity of their preference orderings and have a degree of impatience at each date event which is bounded below a concept defined in the paper we show that the equilibria of an economy with transversality condition coincide with the equilibria with debt constraints an equilibrium with transversality condition is shown to exist it follows that for each economy there is an explicit bound m such that an equilibrium with explicit debt constraint m exists in which the constraint is never binding this latter property ensuring that the debt constraint whose objective is to prevent ponzi schemes does not in itself introduce a new imperfection into the model over and above the incompleteness of the markets

r d subsidies and productivity in smes this paper examines the effect of r d subsidies on labour productivity we use firm level data on finnish smes from 2000 to 2012 and apply a combined matching and difference in differences method to control for selection bias we find no significant positive effect on labour productivity over the five year period after a subsidy is granted however the results vary over time and indicate a 2 4 negative effect on smes annual productivity growth one to 2 years after the subsidy year nevertheless subsidies generate a positive employment effect and enhance firm survival additional scrutiny reveals that subsidies positively affect the human capital level of low skill firms

convertible bonds model value attribution and analytics convertible bonds provide investors an option to convert the bond into the underlying equity for this reason a convertible bond is exposed to both equity and interest rate risk incorporating these two sources of risk into the model is particularly important for callable issues in this study a two factor model is used to analyze a sample of bonds the model shows that the correlation of stock risk and interest rate risk may affect convertible bond prices significantly the bond pricing model also provides portfolio analytics and can decompose a convertible bond into its basic components the stock and bonds with different maturities this approach enables an investor to implement a more precise hedging strategy than is possible using only delta

how does probability of innovation change with firm age this paper looks at the probability of introducing innovations by manufacturing firms at different stages of their lives once differences related to activity and size are controlled for we examine how the probability of innovation varies over entry post entry ages and advanced ages of mature firms we also measure the association between exit from the market and pre exit innovation results show that the probability of innovating widely varies by activity and that small size per se broadly reduces the probability of innovation but also that entrant firms tend to present the highest probability of innovation while the oldest firms tend to show lower innovative probabilities some sets of firms with intermediate ages also present a high probability of innovation and exiting firms are clearly associated to lower levels of introducing process innovations

welfare gains from international risksharing abstract this paper uses consumption data to compute yet unexploited welfare gains that can be achieved through risksharing among twenty oecd countries there is both aggregate national consumption risk and nondiversifiable individual specific risk countries engage in an optimal risksharing arrangement to pool risk associated with the aggregate consumption endowment streams welfare gains are associated with reduced consumption variability and with the international pricing of the consumption streams of individual countries the paper considers the standard vnm time additive preferences as well as nonexpected utility and habit formation preferences large unexploited gains are found under all sets of preferences leading to an international risksharing puzzle

primes and scores an essay on market imperfections this paper investigates the reported relative mispricing of primes and scores to the underlying stock given transaction costs we establish arbitrage based bounds on prime and score prices we then develop a new nonparametric statistical technique to test whether prime and score prices violate these bounds we find that prime and score prices do exceed stock prices and often by a considerable amount we demonstrate that this increased value is most likely due to the score s ability to save on the costs of dynamic hedging we also show how short sale and trust size constraints impede the ability to arbitrage price disparities in an efficient market the price of a security reflects the value of its underlying assets it should not be possible therefore to create value simply by splitting a security into different parts since the underlying assets are unchanged the packaging of the cash flows should not matter the recent introduction of primes and scores suggests that this is not always the case by separating a security s cash flows into a dividend based component the prime and an appreciation or option based component the score developers of these securities have seemingly created two assets whose value separately exceeds that of the original stock since the prime and the score are based on the same underlying asset this raises a puzzling question about the actual efficiency of securities markets this paper investigates this anomaly by examining whether primies and scores are actuauy mispriced and if so why given the costs of transacting in the prime score and stock we establish bounds on prime and score prices that are consistent with no arbitrage opportunities we then develop a new nonparametric statistical technique to test whether prime and score prices violate these bounds this nonparametric procedure is designed both to confront the measurement error problems plaguing the literature i e nonobservable bid ask prices and nonsimultaneous prices see phillips and smith 1980 bhattacharya 1983 and bookstaber 1981 and to avoid the estimation of round trip transaction costs commissions we find the surprising result that prime and score prices exceed the price of the underlying stock often by a considerable amount using time series data we de monstrate that significant price differentials exist for each firm in our sample

the cyclical behavior of individual production series 1889 1984 this paper uses simple summary statistics to analyze the volatility persistence and comovement of 38 annual individual production series for the period 1889 1984 it seeks to identify the size source and correlation of fluctuations in the production of specific commodities within various sample periods and to analyze possible changes in these characteristics over time the paper also discusses the implications of the behavior of individual production series for the behavior of the aggregate economy within the prewar interwar and postwar eras

obviously strategy proof mechanisms what makes some strategy proof mechanisms easier to understand than others to address this question i propose a new solution concept a mechanism is obviously strategy proof osp if it has an equilibrium in obviously dominant strategies this has a behavioral interpretation a strategy is obviously dominant if and only if a cognitively limited agent can recognize it as weakly dominant it also has a classical interpretation a choice rule is osp implementable if and only if it can be carried out by a social planner under a particular regime of partial commitment i fully characterize the set of osp mechanisms in a canonical setting with one dimensional types and transfers a laboratory experiment tests and corroborates the theory

when bureaucrats meet entrepreneurs the design of effective public venture capital programmes recently public efforts to finance small high technology firms have proliferated we review the motivations for these efforts and make some preliminary observations about their design we explore the underlying challenges that the financing of young growth firms poses the ways that specialised financial intermediaries address them and the rationales for public efforts to finance these companies the final section makes a set of observations about the ways in which the structure of these efforts can most effectively complement private sector activity a frequent fault in programme design is the presumption that technological criteria can be divorced from business considerations when evaluating firms the federal government has played an active role in financing new firms particularly in high technology industries since the soviet union s launch of the sputnik satellite in recent years european and asian nations and many us states have adopted similar initiatives while these programmes precise structures have differed the efforts have been predicated on two shared assumptions i that the private sector provides insufficient capital to new firms and ii that the government either can identify investments which will ultimately yield high social and or private returns or can encourage financial intermediaries to do so in contrast to other government interventions designed to boost economic growth such as privatisation programmes these claims have received little scrutiny by economists the neglect of these questions is unfortunate while the sums of money involved are modest relative to public expenditures on defence procurement or retiree benefits these programmes are very substantial when compared to contemporaneous private investments in new firms government programmes in this arena have been divided between those efforts that directly fund entrepreneurial firms and those that encourage or subsidise the development of outside investors in this paper i will focus on public venture capital initiatives programmes that make equity or equity like investments in young firms or encourage other intermediaries to make such investments in some such programmes such as the advanced technology program and the small business innovation research programmes discussed below the funds are provided as a contract or outright grant while these efforts have proliferated a consensus as to how to structure these programmes remains elusive while the design of regulatory agencies has been extensively studied from a theoretical and empirical perspective little work has

world income components measuring and exploiting risk sharing opportunities a method is constructedfor decomposing the variance of changes in incomes in the world into components to indicate the most important risk sharing opportunities among people of the world a constant absolute risk premium carp model an intertemporal general equilibrium model of the world is presented to permit optimal contract design for a contract designer maximizing a social welfare function the optimal contracts maximize the equilibrium world real interest rate securities are defined in terms of eigenvectors of a transformed variance matrix the method is applied using penn world table data on the g 7 countries 1950

bounded rationality and robust mechanism design an axiomatic approach abstract we propose an axiomatic approach to study the superior performance of mechanisms with obviously dominant strategies to those with only dominant strategies guided by the psychological inability to reason state by state we develop obvious preference as a weakening of subjective expected utility theory we show that a strategy is an obviously dominant if and only if any obvious preference prefer it to any deviating strategy at any reachable information set applying the concept of nash equilibrium to obvious preference we propose obvious nash equilibrium to identify a set of mechanisms that are more robust than mechanisms with only nash equilibria

do subsidies to private capital boost firms growth a multiple regression discontinuity design approach there is still little consensus among economists on the effectiveness of business support policies the evaluation of such policies requires a reliable identification procedure that is hardly achieved in empirical studies we analyse the impact of a policy instrument law 488 92 l488 the main italian regional policy that allocates subsidies to private firms by a multiple ranking system thanks to the peculiar l488 selection process that creates the conditions for a local random experiment we are able to assess the effectiveness of these types of incentives for a relevant subgroup of firms we propose a nonparametric multiple rankings regression discontinuity design that exploits the sharp discontinuities in the l488 rankings and extends the regression discontinuity design rdd approach to a context where the treatment is assigned by multiple rankings with different cut off points we find that the impact of the subsidies on employment investment and turnover is positive and statistically significant while the effect on productivity is mostly negligible the new subsidised capital is additional but non complementary with the owner financed investment the results are robust to different specifications and not due to intertemporal substitution

employment innovation and productivity evidence from italian microdata italian manufacturing firms have been losing ground with respect to many of their european competitors this paper presents some empirical evidence on the effects of innovation on employment growth and therefore on firms productivity with the goal of understanding the roots of such poor performance we use firm level data from the last three surveys on italian manufacturing firms conducted by mediocredito capitalia which cover the period 1995 2003 using a modified version of the model proposed by harrison jaumandreu mairesse and peters 2005 which separates employment growth rates into those associated with old and new products we provide robust evidence that there is no employment displacement effect stemming from process innovation the sources of employment growth during the period are split equally between the net contribution of product innovation and the net contribution from sales growth of old products however the contribution of product innovation is somewhat lower than that for the four comparison european countries considered by harrison et al

risk management instruments for debt driven conservation efforts the case of india s project tiger abstract project tiger has been india s premier case of conservation success since mid 1990s select project tiger reserves in india were chosen for intensive funding by the global environment facility the international development agency ida and the government of india under the india eco development project this project marked a modest shift towards debt based funding the gef project has become a benchmark for tiger conservation in india both in terms of management outcomes and scale and scope of funding however in the absence of large scale budgetary support or self generating income flows it becomes difficult for the gef type of project to be replicated in other tiger reserves of the country debt instruments hold promise as enablers of conservation finance the paper proposes issue of tiger bonds to meet the financial requirements of tiger reserves though attractive as a debt instrument a tiger bond could nevertheless entail interest rate and default risks bioprospecting activities form good revenue sources for tiger reserves to pay off their debts however bioprospecting activities do not provide assured returns to tiger reserves pharmaceutical companies that prospect for genetic resources and practice real options approach to r d investment planning adopt multi phased investment systems and sequential searches that gives them the flexibility to abandon r d projects from the point of view of genetic resource providing entities like project tiger reserves the postponement value generated by real options enables a drug company to tap substitutes for the genetic resources that form the subject matter of bioprospecting contracts to obviate possible repayment risks by tiger reserves the paper advocates the institution of put bonds as a risk management tool for project tiger reserves in order to hedge themselves against loan defaults arising from possible loss in bioprospecting income the paper also brings out the mechanics of the issue of tiger bonds in the indian context it is argued that a put bond not only hedges default risks but would also aid value discovery and payment for ecosystem services as far as the project tiger reserves of india are concerned

obvious ex post equilibrium abstract i propose a new solution concept obvious ex post oxp equilibrium this is a formal standard of cognitive simplicity for mechanisms in settings with interdependent values under some standard assumptions the ascending auction has an efficient oxp equilibrium i discuss a decision theoretic foundation for oxp mechanisms

consumption puzzles and precautionary savings abstract when marginal utility is convex agents accumulate savings as a precautionary measure against labor income eventualities this paper shows that precautionary savings can go a long way in making the excess growth excess smoothness and excess sensitivity features of consumption consistent with the stochastic processes of labor income observed in the u s at the microeconomic level

are firms that received r d subsidies more innovative this paper looks at the effectiveness of r d grants for canadian plants that already benefit from r d tax credits using a non parametric matching estimator we find that firms that benefited from both policy measures introduced more new products than their counterparts that only benefited from r d tax incentives they also made more world first product innovations and were more successful in commercializing their innovations

assessing the effect of public subsidies on firm r d investment a survey this survey examines the empirical literature on the relationship between public r d subsidies and private r d investment over the past five decades the survey reveals a considerable heterogeneity of empirical results that cannot be explained fully by methodological issues we aim to provide further explanations of the possible causes of that heterogeneity in particular we emphasise a set of issues that in our view are critical to understanding the potential effect of public r d subsidies on private r d spending special attention is paid to the dynamic aspects and composition of firm r d the constraints faced by the firm such as financial constraints and the amount and source of public subsidies none of these issues have been investigated in depth we formulate a set of research assumptions to guide future empirical research in this field

is subsidizing entry an optimal policy public subsidies in support of new firm foundation are among the most frequently used instruments of industrial policy in the euro zone this paper analyses their effectiveness and efficiency vis a vis some features of the overall process of industry dynamics in italian manufacturing to this end the survival and growth patterns of new small firms are investigated using a unique dataset on electrical and electronic engineering in italy as regards survival our results confirm the findings of other studies namely that the hazard rates are particularly high in the early stages of firm s life cycle as far as growth is concerned the study s main finding is that gibrat s law fails to hold in the years immediately following start up when smaller firms must rush in order to achieve a size large enough to enhance their likelihood of survival conversely in later stages of firm s life cycle the law cannot be rejected these results radically question the use of subsidies as an optimal policy for the support of new entries since the subsidy brings about a major bias in the process of market selection including substitution and deadweight effects and hampers the post entry scale adjustment of newborn firms

r d investment of start up firms does founders human capital matter this article examines whether founders human capital affects not only actual investment but also required investment in research and development r d using the original data of japanese start up firms the estimation results indicate that higher levels of founders human capital especially their education levels increase both actual and required investment in r d and thus do not necessarily contribute to reducing the funding gap for r d

the politician and his banker how to efficiently grant state aid abstract politicians should spend money as efficiently as possible but what is the best method of granting state aid to firms we use a theoretical model with firms that differ in their success probabilities and compare different types of direct subsidies with indirect subsidies through bank loans we find that for a large range of parameters subsidies through banks entail higher social welfare than direct subsidies avoiding windfall gains to entrepreneurs and economizing on screening costs for selfish politicians subsidizing a bank has the additional advantage that part of the screening costs are born by private banks consequently from a welfare perspective politicians use subsidized banks inefficiently often

estimating the benefits of targeted r d subsidies we study the expected welfare effects of targeted r d subsi dies using project level data from finland we model the application and r d investment decisions of firms and the subsidy granting decision of the public agency in charge of the program our model and institutional environment allow us to identify different benefits and costs of the r d subsidy program we find that expected effects of subsidies are very het erogeneous and estimated application costs low on average the social rate of return on targeted subsidies is 30 to 50 but spillover effects of subsidies are smaller than effects on firm profits

r d innovation and productivity new evidence from italian manufacturing microdata italian manufacturing firms have been losing ground with respect to many of their european competitors this article presents some empirical evidence on the effects of innovation on employment growth and therefore on firms productivity with the goal of understanding the roots of such poor performance we use firm level data from the last three surveys on italian manufacturing firms conducted by mediocredito capitalia which cover the period 1995 2003 using a slightly modified version of the model proposed by harrison jaumandreu mairesse and peters harrison et al 2005 which separates employment growth rates into those associated with old and new products we find no evidence of significant employment displacement effects stemming from process innovation the sources of employment growth during the period are split equally between the net contribution of product innovation and the net contribution from sales growth of old products however the contribution of product innovation to employment growth is somewhat lower than in the four european countries considered in harrison et al 2005 and the contribution of innovation in general to productivity growth is almost nil in italy during this period

the relation between forward prices and futures prices abstract this paper consolidates the results of some recent work on the relation between forward prices and futures prices it develops a number of propositions characterizing the two prices these propositions contain several testable implications about the difference between forward and futures prices many of the propositions show that equilibrium forward and futures prices are equal to the values of particular assets even though they are not in themselves asset prices the paper then illustrates these results in the context of two valuation models and discusses the effects of taxes and other institutional factors

full extraction of the surplus in bayesian and dominant strategy auctions we consider auctions for a single indivisible object in the case where the bidders have information about each other which is not available to the seller we show that the seller can use this information to his own benefit and we completely characterize the environ ments in which a well chosen auction gives him the same expected payoff as that obtainable were he able to sell the object with full information about each bidder s willingness to pay we provide this characterization for auctions in which the bidders have dominant strate gies and for those where the relevant equilibrium concept is bayesian nash in both set ups the existence of these auctions hinges on the possibility of constructing lotteries with the correct properties we consider the situation in which an agent the seller possesses one indivisible unit of a good to which he attaches no value but the good has value to a number of potential buyers and its transfer to one of them would increase social welfare in particular the transfer to the buyer with the highest valuation maximizes social welfare in this paper we completely characterize environments in which the seller can design an auction that will enable him to capture for himself the full increase in social welfare induced by the transfer of the good to the bidder with the highest willingness to pay if the seller had full information about the reservation prices of potential buyers his optimal selling strategy would be very simple he would announce a price equal or very close to the highest reservation value the optimal strategy for the bidder with the highest evaluation would be to accept the offer note that we are treating a situation in which the seller can commit himself to a price as a result of the exchange the utility of the seller increases by the full amount of the increase in social welfare and he has been able to fully extract the surplus in many circumstances however a seller has only imperfect knowledge of the buyers willingnesses to pay in this case he must find some mechanism or auction which will enable him to maximize his benefit from the sale of the object the auction literature starts with this observation and shows how the seller can by an astute choice of auction extract the largest possible fraction of the surplus in general the literature has shown that this proportion is strictly less than one in some circumstances the bidders will have information about each other which is not available to the seller for instance in auctions for petroleum drilling rights bidders know the results of geological tests which they have

option pricing and implicit volatilities abstract this paper demonstrates that black scholes implied volatilities can be used to value options in many situations where the assumptions of the black scholes model are violated including i alternative stock processes ii stochastic interest rates and iii market frictions given its computational simplicity this procedure provides an attractive alternative to the more complex models with a direct estimation procedure

complementarities in innovation policy this paper develops a framework for testing discrete complementarities in innovation policy using european data on obstacles to innovation we propose a discrete test of supermodularity in innovation policy leading to a number of inequality constraints we apply our test to two types of innovation decisions to innovate or not and if so by how much we find that the evidence regarding the existence of complementarity in innovation policies depends on the phase of innovation that is targeted getting firms innovative or increasing their innovation intensity as well as on the particular pair of policies that is being considered the two phases of the innovation process i e the probability of becoming an innovator and the intensity of innovation are subject to different constraints interestingly there seems to be a need to adopt a package of policies to make firms innovate while a more targeted choice among policies is necessary to make them more innovative

high tech r d subsidies estimating the effects of sematech abstract sparked by concerns about their shrinking market share 14 leading u s semiconductor producers with the financial assistance of the u s government in the form of 100 million in annual subsidies formed a joint r d consortium sematech in 1987 using compustat data on all u s semiconductor firms we estimate the effects of sematech on members r d spending profitability investment and productivity in so doing we examine two hypotheses the commitment hypothesis that sematech obligates member firms to spend more on high spillover r d and the sharing hypothesis that sematech reduces duplication of member r d spending whereas the commitment hypothesis provides a rationale for the government subsidies the sharing hypothesis does not we find that sematech induced members to cut their overall r d spending on the order of 300 million per year providing support for the sharing hypothesis

nonparametric tests of alternative option pricing models using all reported trades and quotes on the 30 most active cboe option classes from august 23 1976 through august 31 1978

valuation of american call options on dividend paying stocks empirical tests abstract this paper examines the pricing performance of the valuation equation for american call options on stocks with known dividends and compares it with two suggested approximation methods the approximation obtained by substituting the stock price net of the present value of the escrowed dividends into the black scholes model is shown to induce spurious correlation between prediction error and 1 the standard deviation of stock return 2 the degree to which the option is in the money or out of the money 3 the probability of early exercise 4 the time to expiration of the option and 5 the dividend yield of the stock a new method of examining option market efficiency is developed and tested