fixing exchange rates a virtual quest for fundamentals abstract fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates but the volatility of macroeconomic variables such as money and output does not change very much across exchange rate regimes this suggests that exchange rate models based only on macroeconomic fundamentals are unlikely to be very successful it also suggests that there is no clear tradeoff between reduced exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic stability

towards an attention based view of the firm the central argument is that firm behavior is the result of how firms channel and distribute the attention of their decision makers what decision makers do depends on what issues and answers they focus their attention on what issues and answers they focus on depends on the specific situation and on how the firm s rules resources and relationships distribute various issues answers and decision makers into specific communications and procedures the paper develops these theoretical principles into a model of firm behavior and presents its implications for explaining firm behavior and adaptation 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

dynamic forecasts of qualitative variables a qual var model of u s recessions this article presents a new qual var model for incorporating information from qualitative and or discrete variables in vector autoregressions with a qual var it is possible to create dynamic forecasts of the qualitative variable using standard var projections previous forecasting methods for qualitative variables in contrast produce only static forecasts i apply the qual var to forecasting the 2001 business recession out of sample and to analyzing the romer and romer narrative measure of monetary policy contractions as an endogenous variable in a var out of sample the model predicts the timing of the 2001 recession quite well relative to the recession probabilities put forth at the time by professional forecasters qual vars which include information about the qualitative variable can also enhance the quality of density forecasts of the other variables in the system

organizational transformation as punctuated equilibrium an empirical test the punctuated equilibrium model of organizational transformation has emerged as a prominent theoretical framework for explaining fundamental changes in patterns of organizational activity to date

high frequency analysis of foreign exchange interventions what do we learn abstract the high frequency analysis of foreign exchange dynamics is helpful in order to better identify the impact of central bank interventions evidence robustly shows that interventions do indeed move the exchange rate level in the desired direction interventions increase volatility in the short run as they are regarded as information but they can reduce volatility overall ways of transmission may reach beyond the signalling channel and also include the portfolio balance and a damping channel finally interventions are more successful if they obey certain conditions such as being coordinated among central banks and going with the market and fundamentals

central bank interventions and exchange rate band regimes abstract this paper presents an endogenous switching regression model for the exchange rate process where the switch is defined by the central bank criteria functions for intervening we study the signal effect of interventions on the exchange rate using norwegian daily data on official interventions we first find that interventions seemed to have been more effective in moving the exchange rate in the expected desired direction in the regime when the exchange rate was kept away from the edges of the band this type of intervention regime also reduces significantly the conditional volatility of the exchange rate thus when the exchange rate was near the weakest edge of the currency band its conditional variance was significantly larger than when it was moving around its central parity finally we show that in order to obtain consistent estimates intervention variables cannot enter as exogenous variables in the conditional mean or conditional variance of the exchange rate

identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions evidence from australia and japan abstract using a model incorporating the endogenous relationship between exchange rates and intervention we show how a change in central bank policy can be used as an identification assumption estimating this model with simulated gmm for daily data from australia and japan we find that a us 100 million purchase appreciates the australian dollar by 1 3 1 8 but the yen by just 0 2 almost all of the impact of an intervention occurs during the day it is conducted and we confirm that central banks typically lean against the wind

monetary neutrality under evolutionary dominance of bounded rationality i introduction a key property of the dynamic relationship between money and output is that due to price stickiness monetary shocks have persistent although not permanent impacts on the real output see e g christiano eichenbaum and evans 1999 the nominal adjustment of the aggregate price level in response to a monetary shock is therefore temporarily incomplete and considerable supporting empirical evidence for price rigidity has been found in several microprice studies see e g nakamura and steinsson 2013 and klenow and malin 2011 for comprehensive discussions of these studies mankiw and reis 2002 develop a novel model of temporarily incomplete nominal adjustment based on the assumption that costly information disseminates slowly in each period a random fraction of the price setters updates itself on the state of the economy so as to compute and set the optimal price while the remaining fraction keeps setting prices based on outdated information they admit that micro foundations for price stickiness may require a better understanding of bounded rationality and that information processing is more complex than the time contingent adjustment assumed in their paper in fact as added in mankiw and reis 2011 while the cost of acquiring information may be small and may even have fallen in this information age the costs of absorbing and processing information may be rather large and actually higher today than those in the past this paper contributes to the intuition on price setting under bounded rationality by developing a model in which the share of firms that have up to date information on relative prices to establish the optimal price follows evolutionary dynamics with and without mutation and not a random dynamics a la calvo 1983 as in mankiw and reis 2002 and the related literature our aim is to devise evolutionary game theoretic dynamics to provide alternative microfoundations for a temporarily incomplete nominal adjustment following a monetary shock we investigate the behavior of the general price level in an economy in which an individual firm can either pay a cost featuring a random component to update its information set and establish the optimal price nash strategy or freely use full information from the previous period and set a one period lagged optimal price bounded rationality strategy indeed detailed empirical studies such as the investigation for the euro zone by alvarez et al 2006 have found persistent coexistence of forward looking and backward looking price setting behavior and there is also robust empirical evidence showing persistent and time varying heterogeneity both in the frequency and in the extent of information updating see e g branch 2007 coibion and gorodnichenko 2012 we then devise evolutionary game theoretic microdynamics in discrete time that by interacting with the dynamics of the macroeconomic variables affects the coevolution of the frequency distribution of information updating strategies across firms and the completeness of the nominal adjustment of the general price level to a monetary shock our model economy is composed of monopolistically competitive firms whose individual optimal price depends positively upon the prices set by others implying the existence of strategic complementarity in a given period there is a fraction of firms that set prices without perfect knowledge of the structure of relative prices and hence of the prices that other firms will be setting as they decide not to pay the information cost involved in knowing it we refer to these firms as boundedly rational firms the remaining fraction is composed of firms that decide to incur the information updating cost to obtain that perfect knowledge and we follow droste hommes and tuinstra 2002 in referring to them as nash firms as they become perfect foresight firms meanwhile the optimal price is assumed to be given as in ball and romer 1991 varying positively with the actual general price level and nominal stock of money which is publicly known

a comprehensive indicator set for measuring multiple benefits of energy efficiency abstract in this paper we develop a quantitative indicator approach including 20 indicators to measure the multiple benefits of energy efficiency mb ee the mb ees are classified into three groups environmental e g energy savings emissions economic e g gdp employment and social health energy poverty aspects we explain the methodological approach the underlying data sources and limitations the indicator set has been applied to 29 countries eu28 plus norway for the period 2000 to 2015 proving that it allows to conduct in depth comparisons of developments and differences across europe the indicator set also supports the design of well suited energy policies by allowing to take into account on an informed basis more of the multiple impacts of energy efficiency for example our analysis of the effect of energy savings for the period 2000 to 2015 in germany shows ghg savings of about 158 mtco2eq about 30 000 avoided deaths due to less air pollution a reduction of germany s import dependency by 5 8 percentage points and a growth of gdp by around 0 3 per year for the period 2010 to 2015 as a consequence of improved energy efficiency to conclude the presented approach allows to comprehensively and regularly assess policies in terms of their mb ees

organizational environments in flux the impact of regulatory punctuations on organizational domains ceo succession and performance a central debate in organizational theory concerns how organizations evolve there are two diametrically opposing viewpoints adaptation theories predict that change occurs as fluid organizations adjust to meet shifting environmental demands while selection theories predict that change occurs through the differential selection and replacement of inert organizations as environmental demands vary over time our paper bridges these polar opposites by using a punctuated equilibrium framework to examine organizations responses to discontinuous industry level change this framework recognizes that the histories of many industries are occasionally punctuated by dramatic exogenous shocks such as radical technological innovation social and political turmoil major changes in government regulation and economic crashes our central thesis is that such environmental punctuations dramatically reduce pressures and rewards for organizational inertia and thereby alter both organizations propensities for change and their survival chances following change we focus on one form of punctuation major regulatory change and study firms in two industries general hospitals and savings and loan associations for organizations in both industries we examine three important outcomes shifts in organizational domain ceo succession and changes in financial performance our analyses show that punctuational regulatory change prompts shifts in organizational domains and executive leadership additionally post punctuation domain change and post punctuation ceo succession both affect subsequent performance we discuss our results in light of current thinking about the content and process effects of core organizational change which has been developed in the context of stable environments finally we argue for the development of more temporally sensitive theories of organizational action

testing the portfolio balance model a multi lateral approach abstract this paper estimates outside bond demand equations from the portfolio balance model of exchange rate determination for five currencies the approach used in this paper differs from other structural studies of the portfolio balance model in two fundamental ways first while previous studies limit the portfolio choice to domestic assets relative to a composite foreign asset the model analyzed in this paper decomposes the foreign asset by currency second exploiting the cross equation correlation that arises from this decomposition provides more efficient estimates of the asset market parameters

toward an aspiration level theory of open innovation although open innovation has become increasingly established in the management literature comprehensive theoretical explanations of what drives firms to be open are sparse taking the perspective of the behavioral theory of the firm we conceive of open innovation as a form of nonlocal search arguing that firms will turn to open innovation when substantially under or over performing relative to their aspirations we further enquire how this relationship is moderated by firm specific innovation related resources human capital research and development investment and patents employing a representative survey of uk firms we find some evidence of moderation allowing us to present explanations of search through open innovation and contribute to the behavioral theory of the firm itself

customer power strategic investment and the failure of leading firms why might firms be regarded as astutely managed at one point yet subsequently lose their positions of industry leadership when faced with technological change we present a model grounded in a study of the world disk drive industry that charts the process through which the demands of a firm s customers shape the allocation of resources in technological innovation a model that links theories of resource dependence and resource allocation we show that established firms led the industry in developing technologies of every sort even radical ones whenever the technologies addressed existing customers needs the same firms failed to develop simpler technologies that initially were only useful in emerging markets because impetus coalesces behind and resources are allocated to programs targeting powerful customers projects targeted at technologies for which no customers yet exist languish for lack of impetus and resources because the rate of technical progress can exceed the performance demanded in a market technologies which initially can only be used in emerging markets later can invade mainstream ones carrying entrant firms to victory over established companies

occasional interventions to target rates this paper develops a model of central bank intervention based upon a policy characteristic of foreign exchange interventions by the united states germany and japan in the late 1980 s and evaluates it empirically central bankers intervene with greater intensity as rates deviate from target levels but they also try to stabilize rates around current levels the model is estimated using exchange rates and data based upon observed central bank interventions interestingly the estimates of the model are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model for both the deutsche mark dollar rate and less strongly for the yen dollar rate jel f41 g15 f31

do central banks lose on foreign exchange intervention a review article abstract estimates of central bank intervention losses or profits vary widely some estimates find substantial losses others profits in most cases estimated profits are not risk adjusted and risk adjustment can have large effects furthermore profit estimates involve variables integrated of order one and because of this test statistics may have nonstandard distributions few studies take this into account estimates of risk adjusted profits for the us fed and the swedish riksbank with allowances for possible nonstandard distributions suggest that neither made losses and might have made significant profits

the evolution of new industries and the determinants of market structure several empirical regularities concerning firm growth rates and industry firm size distributions have been developed by studying primarily mature industries the primary purpose of this article is to bring together and extend empirical regularities on the evolution of new industries and to use these regularities to gain further insight into the forces governing industry evolution to explain these regularities a model is constructed which emphasizes how factors governing the early evolution of industries may shape their market structure at maturity it stresses how chance events and exogenous factors that influence the number of potential entrants to the industry the growth rate of incumbents and the ease of imitation of industry leaders will influence the ultimate number and size distribution of firms in the industry

on the effects of sterilized intervention an analysis of weekly data abstract as the recent empirical studies surveyed here illustrate it is very difficult to demonstrate that the exchange rate risk premium depends through a portfolio balance channel on the currency composition of outside assets the existence of a portfolio balance effect is a necessary condition for sterilized intervention to be a genuinely independent tool of monetary policy this paper studies u s canadian data and attempts to improve on earlier studies by using higher frequency weekly data and by implementing an appropriate instrumental variables technique 2s2sls however we still fail to detect evidence of a portfolio balance effect

fed intervention dollar appreciation and systematic risk abstract in a four factor asset pricing model estimated on daily data fed intervention significantly affects betas of surprises in the market return expected inflation rate yield curve and corporate bond risk premium fed foreign currency sales cause economically and statistically significant increases in the systematic risk premium in appreciation and thus in the dollar s expected appreciation rate the direction the fed desires and consistent with the signaling but not the portfolio balance channel intervention s effects on actual appreciation are less reliable they depend on unpredictable risk factor realizations even successful intervention to strengthen the dollar may be costly by increasing the dollar s systematic risk intervention reduces the attractiveness of u s relative to foreign investments further uncertainty about future fed interventions may induce resource misallocation ceteris paribus investors find it harder to estimate risk adjusted discount rates and forecast the home currency value of cash flows

are forign exchange intervention and monetary policy related and does it really matter the relationship between foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy underlies the question of whether sterilized interventions can affect the exchange rate in this article the author examines this relationship using data on u s foreign exchange interventions from 1985 to 1990 recently made publicly available she examines whether interventions could be viewed as signaling changes in future monetary policy variables the author also considers whether changes in monetary policy may induce interventions in an effort by central bankers to lean against the wind of exchange rate movements interestingly she finds evidence both that interventions help predict monetary policy variables and that monetary variables help predict interventions copyright 1995 by university of chicago press

a model of exchange rate dynamics this model treats the exchange rate as an asset price that depends on expectations concerning exogenous real and monetary factors that will affect relative prices and absolute price levels in future periods changes in exchange rates reflect both expected changes in these exogenous factors and changes in expectations occasioned by new information the model explains the random component in exchange rate behavior the source of divergences from purchasing power parity the anticipatory response of exchange rates to future expected disturbances and the causes of exchange rate overshooting

a structural threshold model of the exchange rate under optimal intervention abstract by considering a social trade off between targeting the exchange rate and minimizing intervention costs nonlinear exchange rate dynamics can be captured by a structural threshold model this article provides a theory based empirical exchange rate model and shows how to put the model into an empirical investigation to estimate the structural threshold model we propose a two step procedure which separately estimates the permanent and temporary fundamentals of the foreign exchange market a demonstration of our approach is applied to 1981q3 2008q3 taiwan s foreign exchange market with a brief review of its monetary policies and central bank given prior estimation results are consistent with theoretical predictions and many intervention operations of taiwan s central bank are successfully identified

survival of businesses using collaborative relationships to commercialize complex goods authors with many theoretical and managerial perspectives argue that businesses commercializing technologically complex goods benefit when they collaborate closely with other businesses collaboration is viewed as a means for businesses to overcome competency limitations and to achieve the close configuration of components required for complex goods we predict that collaborative relationships often assist businesses to produce complex goods but that the relationships might also cause problems for the collaborating businesses we find that firms using development oriented and marketing oriented collaborative relationships in the hospital software systems industry are less likely to shut down than businesses that follow independent approaches when the environment changes gradually but businesses using collaborative relationships are sometimes susceptible to being acquired by other firms following a sudden environmental shock businesses with collaborative relationships for activities central to the shock became more likely to shut down while businesses with collaborative relationships for activities outside the focus of the shock became more likely to survive the study critically evaluates and tests the widely stated but little tested argument that interfirm collaboration is usually beneficial the results address the issue of whether organizational choices affect comparative business performance

the road taken origins and evolution of employment systems in emerging companies excerpt drawing on a unique archive of qualitative and quantitative data describing 100 bay area high technology firms within their first decade this paper examines the models of employment relations espoused by company founders and bow those models shaped the evolution of human resource management within their organizations information gleaned from interviews suggests that founders and others involved in designing and launching these companies had blueprints for the employment relation that varied along three key dimensions the primary basis of employee attachment and motivation the primary means for controlling and coordinating work and the primary criterion emphasized in selection based on combinations of these three dimensions firms in our sample cluster fall into one of four distinct types which we label the star factory engineering and commitment models multivariate statistical analyses document how the founder s employment model shaped the subsequent adoption and timing of various human resource policies and documents over these companies early histories as well as the speed with which the first full time human resource manager was appointed the findings are strongly suggestive of complementarities and a tendency toward internal consistency among dimensions of human resource management and of strong path dependence in the evolution of employment systems in organizations some implications of these findings for transactions cost perspectives on the employment relationship are discussed

on the origin of strategy action and cognition over time we develop a perspective on how managers search for a strategy in the spirit of cyert and march 1963 we aim for a perspective that reflects the reality of managerial behavior that respects both the reasoning power of managers and the bounds on their rationality and that permits organizations to change but within realistic limits our perspective employs the variable time to frame the question of strategy s origins in a distinctive way over time the cognitive and physical elements that make up a strategy become less plastic while mechanisms to search rationally for a strategy become more available this generates a fundamental tension in the origin of strategy managers struggle to understand their environment well enough to search rationally for an effective strategy before their firms lose the plasticity necessary to exploit that understanding a focus on time allows us to synthesize and extend the evolutionary and positioning models of strategic search toward this end we couple induction and deduction the inductive part of the paper uses detailed observation of the search for a strategy at one firm to identify constructs that play a crucial role in strategic search the deductive part steps beyond our focal firm and uses these constructs to derive theoretical propositions about the typical path of strategic search and the mortality associated with different approaches to search