effects of economic shocks on children s employment and schooling in brazil abstract this paper uses longitudinal employment survey data to analyze the impact of household economic shocks on the schooling and employment transitions of young people in metropolitan brazil the paper uses data on over 100 000 children ages 10 16 from brazil s monthly employment survey pme from 1982 to 1999 taking advantage of the rotating panels in the pme we compare households in which the male household head becomes unemployed during a four month period with households in which the head is continuously employed probit regressions indicate that an unemployment shock significantly increases the probability that a child enters the labor force drops out of school and fails to advance in school the effects can be large implying increases of as much as 50 in the probability of entering employment for 16 year old girls in contrast shocks occurring after the school year do not have significant effects suggesting that these results are not due to unobserved characteristics of households that experience unemployment shocks the results suggest that some households are not able to absorb short run economic shocks with negative consequences for children

economic shocks wealth and welfare the immediate effects of the asian crisis on the well being of indonesians are examined using the indonesia family life survey an on going longitudinal household survey there is tremendous diversity in the effect of the shock for some households it was devastating for others it brought new opportunities a wide array of mechanisms were adopted in response to the crisis households combined to more fully exploit benefits of scale economies in consumption labor supply increased even as real wages collapsed households reduced spending on semi durables while maintaining expenditures on foods rural households used wealth particularly gold to smooth consumption

rural urban poverty differences in transition countries summary this paper uses new poverty data based on household level surveys to analyze changes in rural poverty and rural urban poverty differences in 23 transition countries of central and eastern europe and the former soviet union the paper presents a series of hypotheses to explain differences across countries and changes over time

entry auctions and strategic behavior under cross market price constraints abstract we examine how universal service provisions and price restrictions across markets impact strategic entry and pricing we develop a simple multi market model with an oligopolistic profitable urban market and entry auctions for unprofitable rural service cross market price restrictions induce a firm operating in both markets to become a softer competitor thus placing the firm at a strategic disadvantage when we account for entry incentives and strategic bidding the downstream strategic disadvantage becomes advantageous leading to higher prices and profits price restrictions may also put outside firms even relatively inefficient ones at a strategic advantage

mitigating the consequences of a health condition the role of intra and interhousehold assistance the behavior of noncoresident family members motivates much of the literature on consumption smoothing risk sharing and informal networks yet little is known empirically on the topic due to a lack of data simultaneously observing multiple households in an extended family this study utilizes genealogically linked longitudinal data to examine how extended family networks insure against financial risks from severely limiting health conditions we find that nonhealth consumption of unmarried households declines in response to worsening health whereas married households smooth expenditures in a way that is consistent with full insurance families mitigate losses by reallocating home production drawing down home equity holding formal health insurance collecting social security and receiving transfers from noncoresident relatives we illustrate that the costs of health shocks are transmitted throughout family networks and that noncoresident children draw down their assets and consumption when responding to a parent s health decline

credit market constraints consumption smoothing and the accumulation of durable production assets in low income countries investments in bullocks in india in this paper we formulate and estimate a finite horizon structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low income agricultural environments income uncertainty constraints on borrowing and rental markets and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption the model is fit to longitudinal indian household data on farm profits bullock stocks and pump sets the estimated structural parameters are used to assess the effects on the life cycle accumulation of bullocks agricultural profits and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance

consumption smoothing and the welfare consequences of social insurance in developing economies studies of risk in developing economies have focused on consumption fluctuations as a measure of the value of insurance a common view in the literature is that the welfare costs of risk and benefits of social insurance are small if income shocks do not cause large consumption fluctuations we present a simple model showing that this conclusion is incorrect if the consumption path is smooth because individuals are highly risk averse hence social safety nets could be valuable in low income economies even when consumption is not very sensitive to shocks

buying less but shopping more the use of nonmarket labor during a crisis households allocating time between market and non market uses should respond to income variations by adjusting the time devoted to shopping search and other home production activities in this paper we exploit high frequency household expenditure data to examine the use of changes in shopping intensity as a method of mitigating the effects of the 2002 argentine economic crisis although the total quantity and real value of goods purchased fell during the crisis consumers are found to be doing more shopping search this increase in shopping is shown to enable households to seek out lower prices and locate substitutes allowing a given level of expenditure to buy more goods the magnitude and prevalence of these effects suggest that this non market use of labor can be an important coping strategy for households during a recession

do workers remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals the authors combine the literature on financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies with that on international migrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workers remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals the rationale for this stands in the great stability and low cyclicality of remittances as compared with other private capital flows these properties combined with the fact that remittances are cheap inflows of foreign currencies might reduce the probability that foreign investors suddenly flee out of emerging markets and developing economies and trigger a dramatic current account adjustment the authors find that remittances can have such a beneficial effect in particular they show that a high level of remittances as a ratio of gdp makes the relationship between a decreasing stock of international reserves over gdp and a higher probability of current account crises less stringent the same occurs though less neatly for the positive relationship between an increasing stock of external debt over gdp and the probability of current account reversals the results point also to a threshold effect of remittances the mechanisms just described are in fact much stronger when remittances are above 3 percent of gdp

nutritional status during an economic crisis evidence from russia between 1996 and 1998 russia experienced a spectacular decline in economic activity which was followed by a dramatic rebound between 1998 and 2000 we use panel data to examine the impact of variation in household resources on six dimensions of nutritional status distinguishing longer run from short term fluctuations in resources nutritional status is very resilient to short term variation in household resources gross energy intake adult weight and child stature change very little as expenditure deviates from its long run average longer run resources have a substantively large positive and significant effect on energy intake diet quality adult weight and child stature the evidence indicates that individuals and households are able to weather short term fluctuations in economic resources at least in terms of maintaining body mass and energy intake increased globalisation has resulted in many less developed countries becoming more integrated into world markets this integration carries both benefits and costs for the populations of those countries an oft cited cost is elevated risk of exposure to economic fluctuations which has been manifest in several spectacular economic crises across the globe in the last few decades there is however little evidence on the extent to which individuals and families are able to mitigate deleterious effects of these economic upheavals on their well being in spite of its importance for understanding the consequences of globalisation this article provides new evidence on this issue specifically we examine the relationship between several dimensions of nutritional well being and variation in household resources during the russian economic crisis in the late 1990s the economies of the former soviet bloc have been especially volatile since the transition to market based economies which began in the early 1990s nowhere has this been more true than in russia where in the last half of 1998 real gdp collapsed by around 30 and then rapid growth brought the economy back to its pre crisis level by 2000 the time path of changes in gdp is closely mimicked by changes in the incomes and expenditures of russian households using extremely rich longitudinal household survey data from the russian longitudinal monitoring survey rlms we examine the impact of these large fluctuations in household resources on nutrient intake and on anthropometric markers of nutritional status at the individual level in so doing we address an important issue in the literature regarding the extent to which households in low income settings are able

efficiency and surplus bounds in cournot competition we derive bounds on the ratios of deadweight loss and consumer surplus to producer surplus under cournot competition to do so we introduce a parameterization of the degree of curvature of market demand using the parallel concepts of concavity and convexity the more concave is demand the larger the share of producer surplus in overall surplus the smaller is consumer surplus relative to producer surplus and the lower the ratio of deadweight loss to producer surplus deadweight loss over total potential surplus is at rst increasing with demand concavity then eventually

household saving micro theories and micro facts in this survey we review the recent theoretical and empirical literature on household saving and consumption the discussion is structured around a list of motives for saving and how well the standard theory captures these motives we show that almost all of the motives for saving that have been suggested in the informal saving literature can be captured in the standard optimizing model particular attention is given to recent work on the precautionary motive and its implications for saving and consumption behavior we also discuss the behavioral or psychological approach that eschews the use of standard optimization techniques and focuses instead on direct consideration on saving we provide a section on facts who save and how much we then discuss informally the recent decline in the u s saving rate and whether the theory is of much use in understanding this and other changes in aggregate saving rates over time we do not find any convincing explanation for the change in saving rates we also discuss some analyses of saving behavior over the life cycle addressing such questions as whether households save enough for retirement and whether the consumption patterns of older households can be rationalized within a simple life cycle model we also review a great number of studies of the consumption euler equations based on our analysis of the studies cited we conclude that there is still mixed evidence that consumption is excessively sensitive to income we also examine in depth the recent empirical literature on the precautionary motive we conclude that although some households do seem to have a significant precautionary motive at some points in their life cycle this motive is not so strong empirically as some investigators suggest

the impact of the global financial crisis on off farm employment and earnings in rural china this paper examines the effect of the financial crisis on off farm employment of china s rural labor force using a national representative data set collected from across china the paper finds that there was a substantial impact by april 2009 the reduction in off farm employment as a result of the crises was 6 8 percent of the rural labor force monthly earnings also declined however while it is estimated that 49 million were laid off between october 2008 and april 2009 half of them were re hired in off farm work by april 2009 by august 2009 less than 2 percent of the rural labor force was unemployed due to the crisis the robust recovery appears to have helped avoid instability

allocating and funding universal service obligations in a competitive market abstract we examine in a network market open to competition various mechanisms for allocating and funding universal service obligations among agents rival firms and consumers the obligations we consider are geographic ubiquity and nondiscrimination we analyze from both the efficiency and equity point of views the respective advantages of a restricted entry system where the entrant is not allowed to serve high cost consumers and a pay or play system we show that pay or play regulation always dominates restricted entry regulation under ubiquity constraint alone this result no longer holds when the regulator imposes also the nondiscrimination constraint

payoffs from panels in low income countries economic development and economic mobility economic development is a dynamic process with a time scale of more than a few years the scarcity of household survey data covering long periods of time has meant that most empirical evidence on hypotheses about growth and development has come from cross country aggregate time series data one important limitation of such data is that they cannot provide information on economic mobility thus little is known about which households and individuals are the beneficiaries of economic growth or about the degree of persistence of poverty over sustained time periods or generations as development proceeds disaggregated within country panels covering different time dimensions have been used to shed light on a number of important development topics that go beyond what can be learned from the cross country database carefully planned social experiments or intensive areaspecific fieldwork including the differentiated effects on households of macroeconomic shocks paul glewwe and gillette hall 1998 elizabeth frankenberg et al 2003 the effects of longer term processes such as population growth and technological change on forestation andrew d foster and rosenzweig 2003 and the consequences of institutional change such as local democratization foster and rosenzweig 2002b however household level panel surveys that cover time periods of a decade or more and thus have the potential for studying economic mobility are not only scarce but have design limitations that may bar unbiased inferences about economic mobility for example the indian village level studies of the international crop research institute for the semi arid tropics icrisat which followed households in six villages starting in 1975 for ten years thomas walker and james ryan 1984 dropped the 14 percent of households that divided similarly the 1982 rural economic development survey reds of indian households prem s vashishtha 1989 excluded the one third of 1971 baseline households that had split by 1982 indeed the design of the world bank living standards measurement surveys lsms includes in the panel component of each survey only those members of sampled residences who do not leave glewwe and m grosh 1999 although there is evidence suggesting that panel survey rules that condition on residence provide nonrandom subsamples of the baseline households duncan thomas et al 2001 foster and rosenzweig 2002a little is known about how these selection rules affect inferences about economic mobility or poverty persistence in this article i use data from a new 18 year panel survey from bangladesh to assess whether and how residence based sampling rules affect estimates of economic mobility in the presence of nonrandom household division the results suggest that the biases are substantial

risk and insurance in a rural credit market an empirical investigation in northern nigeria credit contracts play a direct role in pooling risk between households in northern nigeria repayments owed by borrowers depend on realizations of random shocks by both borrowers and lenders the paper develops two models of state contingent loans the first is a competitive equilibrium in perfectly enforceable contracts the second permits imperfect information and equilibrium default estimates of both models indicate that quantitatively important state contingent payments are embedded in these loan transactions but that a fully efficient risk pooling equilibrium is not achieved the research is based on a year long survey in zaria nigeria conducted by the author

the formation of risk sharing networks this paper examines the formation of risk sharing networks in the rural philippines we find that geographic proximity possibly correlated with kinship is a major determinant of mutual insurance links among villagers age and wealth differences also play an important role in contrast income correlation and differences in occupation are not determinants of network links reported network links have a strong effect on subsequent gifts and loans gifts between network partners are found to respond to shocks and to differences in health status from this we conclude that intra village mutual insurance links are largely determined by social and geographical proximity and are only weakly the result of purposeful diversification of income risk the paper also makes a methodological contribution to the estimation of dyadic models

monopoly price discrimination and demand curvature this paper presents a general analysis of the eects of monopolistic third degree price discrimination on welfare and output when all markets are served su cient conditions involving straightforward comparisons of the curvatures of the direct and inverse demand functions in the dierent mar kets are presented for discrimination to have negative or positive eects on

extended families and child well being studies of household behavior have established the distribution of resources among household members predicts spending and savings patterns however there is a paucity of evidence on the relationship between the well being of individual family members and the distribution of resources within an extended family including non co resident family members given the central role the family plays in many models of economic behavior this is an important gap in the literature using rich longitudinal survey data from the indonesia family life survey ifls evidence is presented on the relationship between three measures of health and education related human capital of children and the distribution of resources among extended family members ifls is ideally suited for this research since the survey collects detailed information about income and wealth from both coresident and non co resident family members the empirical model is founded on a natural extension of the collective model of household decision making chiappori 1988 1992 to the extended family the model is particularly appealing in this context because it places few restrictions on preferences of individual family members and does not specify a specific bargaining mechanism that underlies negotiations the collective model yields empirical tests of whether the behavior of family members is pareto efficient a special case of the model allows all family members to be completely altruistic which is observationally equivalent to a unitary model of family behavior that special case is rejected by the data however the restrictions of the efficient model are not rejected indicating that non co resident family members are able to co ordinate allocation decisions with respect to child human capital investments in such a way as to make no family member better off without another member being worse off

intra household labor supply migration and subsistence constraints in a risky environment evidence from rural el salvador abstract we investigate the use of intra household labor allocation as a means of risk coping when subsistence constraints matter in rural el salvador we show that households increase the labor supply of its male members to the family farm and abroad in the us after being subjected to adverse agricultural productivity shocks the latter is the result of a standard substitution effect whereas the former is the result of subsistence concerns theoretically these results are not at odds with each other if these events differentially impacted rich and poor households we also show that the earthquakes of 2001 resulted in large reductions in the number of female members who were sent abroad and large increases in hours of domestic labor supplied by female members we argue that this result is a consequence of subsistence motives because female labor supply at home increased despite lower remuneration

equity justifications for universal service obligations abstract equity is often invoked as a possible justification for the imposition of universal service obligations usos however no previous analysis supports a formal link between equity and uso in this paper we describe the extent to which the imposition of usos in oligopolistic network industries can meet the objectives of an inequality averse regulator we show that usos can be used for equity purposes provided that the regulator is able to control the competitive structure of the industry we also show that the uniform pricing constraint which is an obligation to offer the same price conditions to all consumers is welfare enhancing but rather surprisingly it does not necessarily improve equity

differential pricing when costs differ a welfare analysis this article analyzes the welfare effects of monopoly differential pricing in the important but largely neglected case where costs of service differ across consumer groups cost based differential pricing is shown to increase total welfare and consumer welfare relative to uniform pricing for broad classes of demand functions even when total output falls or the output allocation between consumers worsens we discuss why cost based differential pricing tends to be more beneficial for consumers than its demand based counterpart third degree price discrimination we also provide sufficient conditions for welfare improving differential pricing when costs and demands differ across consumer groups

skimming the other s cream competitive effects of an asymmetric universal service obligation abstract we consider a common situation in energy markets an incumbent firm provides an essential good under ubiquity and uniform pricing requirements while competing in two part tariffs with an entrant providing a non essential substitute we find that consumers captivity to the essential good allows the incumbent to partly appropriate the surplus brought to the economy by the entrant surprisingly the ubiquity requirement induces more aggressive pricing by the incumbent below marginal cost and reduced entry despite cream skimming by the entrant far from being a burden universal service obligations might thus confer strategic advantages to incumbents

reconnecting the long term unemployed to labour market opportunity the case for a local active labour market policy campbell m 2000 reconnecting the long term unemployed to labour market opportunity the case for a local active labour market policy reg studies 34 655 668 this paper argues that the development of a local active labour market policy can make a valuable contribution to reconnecting the long term unemployed to labour market opportunities such an approach is broadly consistent with the evolving eu and uk government policy agendas but it is argued the content and nature of local action needs to be informed by a sound understanding of the causes of long term unemployment and the lessons that can be learnt from studies of the effectiveness of previous active labour market policy interventions at national and local level a strategic framework is proposed which can be used as a means of examining current policy and as an approach to developing local policy campbell m 2000 reintegrer les chomeurs de longue duree dans le marchedu travail pour une politique en faveur d un marchedu travail actif

physiology and development why the west is taller than the rest we hypothesise that the timing of the fertility transition is an important determinant of comparative physiological development in support we provide a model of long run growth that elucidates the links between population size average body size and income during development industrialisation is shown to be accompanied by a reduction in family size and an intensification of nutrition per child early transition countries are therefore expected to be more developed today economically and physiologically empirically the timing of the fertility transition is strongly correlated with average body size across countries

consumption smoothing and hiv aids the case of two communities in south africa abstract hiv aids threatens to overstretch the already frail informal safety nets in countries heavily affected by the epidemic potentially making it difficult for households with hiv positive members to keep up appropriate consumption levels when experiencing shocks these households may in addition face exclusion from informal insurance networks because of widespread stigmatization surprisingly the resilience of informal networks to hiv related shocks and their uncertain worth for afflicted households in particular have not been empirically tested to date using 3 years of a novel panel data set from two poor south african communities experiencing hiv related illnesses and deaths we investigate the ability of households to insure their consumption we find little evidence that affected households show an extra propensity to consume out of income changes which indicates that these households can rely on informal insurance to the same degree as their nonaffected peers however on the basis of the

efficiency of uniform pricing in universal service obligations we provide an efficiency justification for the imposition of the uniform pricing constraint in universal service obligations uso where uso are defined as a set of constraints imposed on firms belonging to a network industry in addition to the uniform pricing up constraint which is an obligation to serve all consumers at an identical price constraints considered are the coverage constraint cc which is an obligation imposed on one of the firms to serve a given segment of the market and the license constraint lc which is a minimum or a maximum coverage restriction that is imposed on entrants we show that adding the up constraint to both a cc and a lc leads to an increase in welfare our contribution comes from the full recognition of the role of a lc in well designed uso and we illustrate this role with the particular case of linear demand

rearranging the family income support and elderly living arrangements in a low income country this study examines the link between income and living arrangements our identification comes from exploiting a discontinuity in age in the benefit formula for the social pension in south africa in contrast to previous literature we find no association between pension income and elderly independence we do find that potential beneficiaries alter their household structure when they become pension eligible prime working age women depart and the presence of children younger than five and young women of childbearing age increase these shifts in coresidence patterns are consistent with a setting where prime age women have comparative advantage in work away from extended family relative to younger women the additional income from old age support may induce a change in living arrangements to exploit this advantage

unemployment duration and the restart effect some experimental evidence in this paper we analyse the effect of ihe restart programme in the united kingdom this programme consisis of an interview of tbe long term unemployed to counsel them on effective job search failure to attend the interview carries the threat of the cessation of unemployment benefits the results using experimental data indicate that the programme has a significant effect of reducing unemployment duration estimation of an independent competing risks model distinguishing between exits from unemployment to a job a training placement or to signing off unemployment benefit shows that the channels through which restart works differs according to exit type

health shocks and consumption smoothing evidence from indonesia abstractepisodes of uninsured illness can seriously compromise a household s well being this article provides further evidence on the consequences of illness episodes on earnings and consumption in indonesia we exploit a rich panel data set that allows us to combine fixed effects and instrumental variables to address biases associated with the endogeneity of illness using deteriorations in physical functioning to measure illness for a sample of prime age individuals we find that earnings are significantly reduced however the effects on consumption are relatively small and statistically insignificant in addition we explore informal mechanisms that households may be using to smooth out the consequences of these episodes in particular we study whether households deplete liquid assets or receive transfers from noncoresident kin transfers are responsive to illness but there is no evidence of asset depletions overall our findings suggest some ability to smooth the income effects of illness on aver

the concept of employability the concept of employability plays a crucial role in informing labour market policy in the uk the eu and beyond this paper analyses current and previous applications of the term and discusses its value as an exploratory concept and a framework for policy analysis it then traces the development of the concept discusses its role in current labour market and training strategies with particular reference to the uk and seeks to identify an approach to defining employability that can better inform labour market policy by transcending explanations of employment and unemployment that focus solely on either supply side or demand side factors although the literature offers a range of definitions of employability many policy makers have recently used the term as shorthand for the individual s employability skills and attributes it is argued that this narrow usage can lead to a hollowing out of the concept of employability the paper concludes by presenting a broad framework for analysing employability built around individual factors personal circumstances and external factors which acknowledges the importance of both supply and demand side factors

the hidden costs of political instability evidence from kenya s 2007 election crisis abstract this paper studies the microeconomic impacts of the political crisis and civil conflict that immediately followed the december 2007 presidential election in kenya income expenditures and consumption dramatically declined for a broad segment of the rural population for the duration of the conflict to make up for the income shortfall women who supply transactional sex engaged in higher risk sex both during and after the crisis while this particular crisis was likely too short for these behavioral responses to seriously increase the risk of hiv or other stis for these women such responses could have long term repercussions for health in countries with longer or more frequent crises overall our results suggest that social unrest can be an important channel through which political instability can affect long term outcomes such as health

calories and poverty during a prolonged crisis abstract we study how calorie intake changes during prolonged crises by studying the calorie intake of households when exposed to short term and long term income and price shocks we use data from household surveys of mexican households during the income and price crises periods of 1994 to 1998 and 2006 to 2010 our focus is on low income mexican households those with the lowest 25 of expenditure per capita there is little effect on calorie intake following an income decline in the short run once households are exposed to reduced incomes for a longer period calorie intake falls households are able to weather short term fluctuations in income by shifting consumption to food items that are cheaper per calorie such as staple foods by consuming more foods at home instead of outside the home and by postponing expenditures on durable and semi durable goods when exposed to the income shock over a longer period of time we posit that households are not able to defer durable and semi durable purchases any more so their calorie consumption drops our results suggest that mexican households may be able to sustain calorie intake when faced with an income shock but it is less likely that they are able to do so if the income shock persists the government may want to support poor constituents when they are faced with prolonged crises

education in a crisis abstract the year 1998 saw the onset of a major economic and financial crisis in indonesia gdp fell by 12 that year the effect on education of the next generation is examined on average household spending on education declined most dramatically among the poorest households spending reductions were particularly marked in poor households with more young children while there was a tendency to protect education spending in poor households with more older children the evidence on school enrollments mirrors these findings poor households apparently sought to protect investments in the schooling of older children at the expense of the education of younger children

selling labor low wage responses to productivity shocks in developing countries productivity risk is pervasive in underdeveloped countries this paper highlights a way in which underdevelopment exacerbates productivity risk productivity shocks cause larger changes in the wage when workers are poorer less able to migrate and more credit constrained because of such workers inelastic labor supply this equilibrium wage effect hurts workers in contrast it acts as insurance for landowners agricultural wage data for 257 districts in india for 1956 87 are used to test the predictions with rainfall as an instrument for agricultural productivity in districts with fewer banks or higher migration costs the wage is much more responsive to fluctuations in productivity

psychological health before during and after an economic crisis the 1997 indonesian financial crisis resulted in severe economic dislocation and political upheaval previous studies have established the detrimental consequences for economic welfare physical health and child education the crisis also affected the psychological well being of the indonesian people comparing responses of the same individuals interviewed before and after the crisis this study documents substantial increases in several dimensions of psychological distress among men and women across the age distribution it shows larger impacts of the economic crisis on the more vulnerable groups including those with low education the rural landless urban residents and those in provinces most affected by the crisis elevated psychological distress persists even after the economy returns to precrisis levels suggesting that the deleterious effects of the crisis may persist longer on the psychological well being of the indonesian population than on standard measures of economic well being

economic shocks and subjective well being evidence from a quasi experiment this article examines how economic shocks affect individual well being in developing countries using the case of a sudden and unanticipated currency devaluation in botswana as a quasi experiment the article examines how this monetary shock affects individuals evaluations of well being this is done by using microlevel survey data which incidentally were collected in the days surrounding the devaluation the chance occurrence of the devaluation during the time of the survey enables us to use pretreatment respondents surveyed before the devaluation as approximate counterfactuals for post treatment respondents surveyed after the devaluation estimates show that the devaluation had a large and significantly negative effect on individuals evaluations of subjective well being these results suggest that macroeconomic shocks such as unanticipated currency devaluations may have significant short term costs in the form of reductions in people s sense of well being

civil war crop failure and child stunting in rwanda economic shocks at birth have lasting effects on children s health several years after the shock the authors calculate height for age z scores for children under age five using data from a rwandan nationally representative household survey conducted in 1992 they exploit district and time variation in crop failure and civil conflict to measure the impact of exogenous shocks that children experience at birth on their height several years later they find that boys and girls born after the shock in regions experiencing civil conflict are both negatively affected with height for age z scores 0 30 and 0 72 standard deviations lower respectively conversely only girls are negatively affected by crop failure with these girls exhibiting 0 41 standard deviation lower height for age z scores and the impact is worse for girls in poor households results are robust to using sibling difference estimators household level production and rainfall shocks as alternative measures of crop failure

under the weather health schooling and economic consequences of early life rainfall life in rural areas of developing countries is prone to many kinds of risk such as illness or mortality of household members crop or other income loss due to natural phenomena weather insect infestations or fire for example and civil conflict in addition to their contemporaneous effects the effects of certain types of shocks may still be felt many years or even decades later from a public policy standpoint it is particularly important to identify shocks that have large long run effects moreover the mechanics underlying the persistence of shocks may be of con siderable interest for example a health shock may have a long run effect simply because the health shock itself persists over time alternately the health shock may not directly affect long run outcomes but it could affect some other outcome such as educational attainment that helps determine long run well being in this paper we focus on shocks that occur at the very beginning of life we ask how sensi tive long run individual well being is to environmental conditions around the time of birth in particular we examine the effect of weather shocks around the time of birth on the adult health education and socioeconomic outcomes of indonesian women and men born between 1953 and 1974 in addition we attempt to shed light on the intervening pathways connecting early life rainfall to adult outcomes illuminating the roles of health and educational attainment in deter mining adult socioeconomic status this investigation has considerable data requirements it necessitates information on weather shocks experienced by individuals several decades earlier as well as detailed current informa tion on adult outcomes we use information in the indonesian family life surveys ifls on an individual s year and location of birth and link each individual in that survey to locality specific rainfall data for their birth year for individuals born in rural areas on whom we focus rainfall variation across space and time should generate corresponding variation in agricultural output and thus household income to deal with measurement error in the rainfall data we run instrumental variables regressions where variables for rainfall measured at slightly more distant rainfall stations serve as instruments for rainfall in the individual s birthplace and birth year we examine the impact of early life rainfall on a range of adult outcomes observed in 2000 we find that higher early life rainfall leads to improved health schooling and socioeconomic status for women women with 20 percent higher rainfall relative to normal local rainfall in their year and location of birth are 3 8 percentage points less likely to self report poor or very poor health they attain 0 57 centimeters greater height attain 0 22 more completed grades of

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains

fatal fluctuations cyclicality in infant mortality in india this paper investigates the impact of aggregate income shocks on infant mortality in india and investigates likely mechanisms a recent oecd dominated literature reports the provocative finding that mortality at most ages is pro cyclical similar analyses for poorer countries are scarce and both income risk and mortality risk are greater in poor countries this paper uses data and methods designed to avoid some of the specification problems in previous studies and it explores mechanisms and extensions that have not been previously considered it uses individual data on infant mortality for about 150 000 children born in 1970 1997 merged by cohort and state of birth with a state panel containing information on aggregate income identification rests upon comparing the effects of annual deviations in income from trend on the mortality risks of children born at different times to the same mother conditional upon a number of state time varying covariates including rainshocks and state social expenditure rural infant mortality is counter cyclical the elasticity being about 0 33 this is despite the finding that relatively high risk women avert birth or suffer fetal loss in recessions it seems in part related to recessions stimulating distress labor amongst mothers in contrast to the case in richer countries where they discourage labor market participation health care seeking declines in recessions and this appears to be related to the opportunity cost of maternal time disaggregation reveals that the average results are driven by rural households in which the mother is uneducated or had her first birth in teenage and that it is only girls that are at risk boys are protected from income shocks exposure to poor conditions in the fetal and neonatal period appears to have a larger effect on infant mortality than similar exposure in the postneonatal period

flexibility of household structure child fostering decisions in burkina faso using data i collected in africa this paper examines a household s decision to adjust its size through child fostering an institution where biological parents temporarily send children to live with other families households experiencing negative idiosyncratic income shocks child gender imbalances located further from primary schools or with more good quality network members fewer subsistence farmers and unmarried individuals and more educated members are significantly more likely to send a child results reject an overall symmetric fostering model across senders and receivers but evidence of symmetry is found when the test is restricted to exogenous income shocks and gender imbalances

assets and poverty traps in rural bangladesh using longitudinal survey from rural bangladesh this article examines the determinants of land and asset accumulation over time and explores why some households may be trapped in asset poverty non parametric and parametric methods are used to discern the shape of the asset accumulation path and whether unique or multiple equilibria exist we find evidence for concavity of the dynamic asset frontier but no evidence for multiple equilibria it is suggested that the existence of well functioning factor markets in rural bangladesh and elsewhere in south asia explain the contrasts between our results and those for several african countries