macroeconomics of stagflation under flexible exchange rates the concerns of macroeconomic policy in the industrial countries in recent years have shifted the focus of open economy ncroeconomics to new and interesting problems although no synthesis or a fully coherent theory of policy has yet emerged from this research the results have already led to major revisions in views about the nature of the problems that policy has to deal with this paper provides a selective survey and discussion of son of the results of recent research with errhasis on their inplications for policy pentti j k kouri department of economics 269 mercer street second floor new york university new york n y 10003 macroeconomics of stagflation under flexible exchange rates

exchange rates and the fiscal theory of the price level abstract this paper addresses exchange rate determination under a nominal interest peg in a two country cash in advance model under two types of cash in advance constraints if both governments peg the nominal interest rate on domestic bonds there is a continuum of equilibria each consistent with different nominal exchange rates and real resource allocations the well known finding of equilibrium uniqueness under a nominal interest rate peg in a closed economy does not survive in a multi country multi currency setting

sunspots currency substitution and inflationary finance abstract this paper explores some issues surrounding inflationary finance of government deficits in a two country world with currency substitution each country s monetary policy is assumed to be subordinate to fiscal policy private agents knowing that the monetary authorities cannot commit themselves to fixed policy rules substitute among the two monies each monetary authority is then forced to accomodate the actions of the fiscal authorities and private agents by setting monetary growth rates consistent with their decisions this framework offers some interesting insights into the behavior of nominal exchange rates and their co movements with relative money supplies and government deficits

an exploration in the theory of exchange rate regimes three exchange rate regimes a float a one sided peg and a cooperative peg are evaluated and compared in terms of efficiency and welfare levels the framework of analysis embodies country specific monies with the money of each country being used to transact in its commodity markets and its currency denominated bonds welfare levels depend only on consumption levels in the presence of perfect foresight all equilibrium allocations are pareto efficient in a floating exchange rate regime the perfect foresight equilibrium allocation coincides with an equilibrium of a costless barter economy the same result holds in a one sided peg if the pegging country s exchange rate stabilizing authority breaks even over time in a cooperative peg regime there is a different equilibrium allocation for each combination of exchange rate levels and monetary policies problems of policy coordination and conflicts in desired monetary policies are discussed

fiscal illusion and political accountability theory and evidence from two local tax regimes in britain local tax reform in britain in 1993 reinstating a propertytax may have reversed some intended fiscal illusion reducing and accountability improving features of the poll tax itself a reform introduced in 1990 with the specific aim ofpromoting accountability we formalize these features withina median voter model of the demand for local publicexpenditure that distinguishes between accountability andfiscal illusion effects the model shows that a prioriaccountability effects on expenditures are ambiguous available data for england and wales are used to test themodel we find strong evidence of grant illusion the flypapereffect similar across tax regimes with evidence of renterillusion and of less accountability under the property tax the degree of local income inequality appears to affectexpenditure levels only with the property tax

forward exchange rates in general equilibrium abstract this paper develops a two country overlapping generations model of an economy with a forward market in foreign exchange the equilibrium forward rate exhibits the conventional decomposition into the expected future spot rate a convexity term and a risk premium unlike partial equilibrium models however the model expresses these terms as functions of the primitive structural parameters of the economy it thus provides insights into the structure of the premium which may facilitate interpretation of empirical studies of the forward markets in particular it suggests that time varying risk premia may arise from changes in the distribution of wealth between countries over time

on the value of virtual currencies nous construisons un modele d analyse pour cerner les facteurs qui influent sur le taux de change des monnaies virtuelles trois elements importent tout d abord l utilisation actuelle d une monnaie virtuelle comme moyen de paiement ensuite la decision d investisseurs prospectifs d acheter de la monnaie virtuelle et de controler ainsi l offre de ce type de monnaie enfin les facteurs qui determineront ensemble l adoption d une monnaie virtuelle par les consommateurs et son acceptation par les commercants

some simple bitcoin economics abstract we provide a model of an endowment economy with two competing but intrinsically worthless currencies dollar bitcoin dollars are supplied by a central bank to achieve its inflation target while the bitcoin supply grows deterministically our fundamental pricing equation implies in its simplest form that bitcoin prices form a martingale mutual impatience implies absence of speculation price volatility therefore does not invalidate the medium of exchange function bitcoin block rewards are not a tax on bitcoin holders they are financed with a dollar tax we discuss monetary policy implications bitcoin production taxation welfare and entry and characterize the range of equilibria

intergenerational risk sharing abstract in this paper we examine government debt and tax transfer policies that can be improve the allocation of risk between generations markets cannot allocate risk efficiently between two generations whenever the two generations are not both alive prior to the occurence of a stochastic event this implies that government policies transferring risk between generations have the potential to create first order welfare improvements our model provides a non keynesian justification for the debt finance of wars and recessions as well as an added rationale for social security type tax transfer schemes which aid unlucky generations e g the depression generation at the expense of luckier generations

returning to the returns to computer use this paper re examines the returns to computer use using a new matched workplace employee data from canada we control for potential selection using instrumental variables results suggest that it is not merely the employee having a computer on his desk but rather having complementary computer skills that causes wages to increase this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

on the indeterminacy of equilibrium exchange rates in this paper we consider a particular international economic policy regime the laissez faire regime the distinguishing features of which are unrestricted portfolio choice and floating exchange rates and as we show this regime although favored by many economists is not economically feasible it does not have a determinate equilibrium that is an implication of an overlapping generations model more basically it is an implication of the notion that money is wanted only in order to accomplish trades

the use of the balance of payments as a shock absorber in fixed rate and managed float systems abstract this paper analyzes the use of the balance of payments as a shock absorber in fixed and managed exchange rate regimes the analysis is conducted in a monetary intergenerational model it shows that the balance of payments can be used to smooth consumption and raise the welfare of individuals the paper also justifies the stabilization of consumption as a policy goal achieved through the balance of payments mechanism

money time preference and external balance in monetary economies international differences in rates of time preference do not in general lead to long run trade imbalances in sharp contrast with butter s 119811 results on non monetary overlapping generation economies this claim is documented within the context of a simple two country framework in which new immortal families enter each economy over time with the two countries differing only in their subjective discount rates even if consumers are more impatient at home than abroad trade is balanced in the long run in the presence of valued fiat currencies in constant supply and the current account is indeterminate this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

new technologies wages and worker selection we study the effect of new technologies nt on wages and employment using a unique panel that matches data on individuals and on their firms as in the united states we show that computer users are better paid than nonusers 15 20 more but these workers were already better compensated before the introduction of the nts total returns to computer use amount to 2 measurement errors do not affect our estimates furthermore computer users are protected from job losses as long as bad business conditions do not last too long this result holds even after controlling for possible selection biases

an incremental budgeting model of local public expenditure setting in the presence of piecewise linear budget constraints this paper develops and tests an incremental budgeting model of local government expenditure decisions using data on british local government the model introduces two distinctive feautures into the incremental budegeting literature firstly it takes explicit account of the availability of an independent source of revenue for jurisdictions in this example a local property tax and secondly it shows how it is possible to develop satisfactory emperical models when budget constraints are only piecewise linear the model is shown to perform well both in explaining within year variability in budgeting decisions and in predicting subsequent budgets under revised budget constraints

optimizing the level of grant support for local government an application of a behavioral model abstract the united kingdom government has over the last decade undertaken an unprecedented campaign designed to reduce the level of current expenditure in local authorities the campaign has patently failed not least because of a failure adequately to research many of the measures introduced during the 1980s a major reform of local government finance has now been implemented which includes the replacement of the local domestic property tax by a community charge or poll tax this paper shows how using behavioural models of local authority budgeting developed under the old system of local government finance it might be possible for the government to approach an optimal policy in the implementation of the reforms

does the flypaper model stick a test of the relative performance of the flypaper and conventional models of local government budgetary behaviour two of the most widely referred to models of local or state budgetary behaviour are developed and tested the models considered are a variant of the flypaper model see for example courant et al 1979 and oates 1979 and a conventional model which builds on the seminal work of wilde 1969 1971 the models are developed in a manner which allows them to be tested empirically using data for english local governments two types of test are employed the ability of the two models to explain the variations in expenditure levels across local governments within any given fiscal year the ability of the models to predict future levels of expenditure given changes to local government budget constraints as brought about for example by changs in grants in aid from central government

the estimation of british local government expenditure decisions under a piecewise linear budget constraint in the light of the reforms that have affected local government finance in britain the empirical analysis of local government responses to the changes in the grant system has become a topical subject because of its policy implications barnett et al proposed different models to predict the likely impact of the reforms on local government expenditure but never tested ofr the validity of the functional form used in their model the main reason for this omission is related to the piecewise nature of the budget constraint faced by local authorities which complicated the estimation techniques and restricted the choice of the functional forms that could be used the presented here tests for the validity of the functional form using data for the three fiscal years that preceded the poll tax reform namely 1986 87 to 1988 89 and suggests specific tests to compare the parameters obtained using different models the main conclusion of the analysis is that only the behaviour of metropolitan districts is consistent

gmm estimates of currency substitution between the canadian dollar and the u s dollar this paper investigates the empirical strength of currency substitution between the canadian dollar and the u s dollar euler equations implied by a small open economy money in the utility function model are estimated and tested by hansen s generalized method of moments procedure the major empirical finding is that both the elasticity of currency substitution and the share of u s currency in the production of canadian liquidity services are economically small even though the combined domestic and u s real balances appear to provide statistically significant economizing on transactions costs copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

can neuroscience inform economics rationality emotions and preference formation the interaction between neuroscience and economics has gained much prominence recently leading to the emergence of the new and expanding field of neuroeconomics i will argue that although there is much insight to be gained from the interaction between neuroscience and economics the implications of recent developments in neuroscience and neuroeconomics for the deductivist methodology of mainstream economics and its emphasis on prediction of events have not been sufficiently addressed in fact much research on neuroeconomics has contributed to the formulation of deductivist models aimed at the prediction of events when the more fruitful use of neuroscience in economics consists rather in the utilisation of its insights for the development of an explanation of social behaviour that moves beyond the mainstream deductivist methodology the somatic marker hypothesis developed by damasio and others working closely with him will be suggested as an alternative framework for conceptualising the emergence of social behaviour from a neurobiological substrate

local governments monopoly power and local tax reform theory and evidence from the u k this paper hypothesises the existence of several sources of monopoly power for local governments when the system of local taxation is reformed by central government in particular we argue that information asymmetries between tax payers and central and local government at the time of reform provide opportunities for local politicians to set tax levels which differ from those expected in a full information setting we predict that compared to pre reform tax levels local tax levels post reform will differ according to four local government characteristics i the size of the seat majority of the ruling local party ii whether the party controlling local government is the same as or is different from the ruling party of central government iii whether the local government structure has one or two tiers and whether the same party controls both tiers and iv the degree of indebtedness of the local authority testing the model on the u k local tax reform of 1990 we find strong evidence consistent with the hypothesis that inter authority differences in local tax levels reflect differences in the degree of local political monopoly power resulting from information asymmetries this monopoly power appears to have been used generally but not exclusively to raise tax levels

on the relationship between the exchange regime and the portfolio rules of optimizing agents the paper utilizes the overlapping generations framework to derive demand functions for money and capital we show that many of the macroeconomic comparisons of alternative exchange regimes are not legitimate since changing the exchange regime alters the portfolio rules of rational agents one cannot simply postulate a set of asset demand equations and then hold various income interest rate and wealth elasticities constant when the exchange regime changes having derived the demands for money and capital from optimizing behavior we show how changing the exchange regime affects expected capital holdings and expected utility levels of optimizing agents

optimal and time consistent exchange rate management in an overlapping generations economy abstract this paper analyzes exchange rate management in a simple overlapping generations model this framework is used to evaluate alternative policies in terms of their implications for the welfare of individuals in the economy and for generating seigniorage when the chief concern is to provide a desirable store of value a policy of fixing the exchange rate does better when shocks are primarily of domestic origin while floating becomes more desirable when foreign shocks predominate the same is true when the government is concerned with maximizing total expected seigniorage although more intervention is typically desirable when generating seigniorage is the major objective when seigniorage concerns are paramount and when the monetary authority cannot establish a reputation for conducting monetary policy in a way that makes the currency a desirable store of value a national currency may not be viable in the absence of exchange controls such controls may be justified in this situation

nominal prices and interest rates in general equilibrium endowment shocks the outstanding problem of neoclassical monetary theory has been to determine the effect of changes in the money stock on nominal prices and interest rates the classic result is that in the absence of money illusion contracts fixed in nominal terms and other such impedimenta money is neutral thus a doubling of the money stock results in a doubling of the nominal price level and in no change in nominal interest rates except at most for a temporary liquidity effect while the price level is rising to its new level during the adjustment period the nominal interest rate might temporarily drop this neutrality result has conventionally been proved in a static framework in intertemporal models it is necessary to distinguish between static neutrality and dynamic neutrality if a model displays dynamic neutrality fluctuations in the money stock immediately induce a proportional change in the nominal price level and no change in nominal interest rates or any real variable this property is different from and stronger than static neutrality which in dynamic models states only that if the money stock at all dates is doubled so will be the price level at all dates the effects of exogenous shocks in the monetary growth rate on nominal prices and interest rates are analyzed a representative individual rational expectations framework is adopted and a demand for money is generated by entering money in the utility function the effects of monetary shocks on inflation and interest rates are shown to depend on the autocorrelation of the monetary growth rate for example under serial independence the inflation rate equals the monetary growth rate and the nominal interest rate is nonrandom while under positive negative autocorrelation the nominal interest rate is affected positively negatively by positive growth rate shocks i am grateful to the staff of the federal reserve bank of philadelphia to the finance groups at the university of southem california and virginia polytechnic institute and to c j lacivita dan peled john seater and jon sonstelie for valuable comments on earlier drafts

the returns to computer use revisited have pencils changed the wage structure too are the large measured wage differentials for on the job computer use a true return to computer skills or do they just reflect that higher wage workers use computers on their jobs we examine this issue with three large cross sectional surveys from germany first we confirm that the estimated wage differential associated with computer use in germany is very similar to the u s differential second we also measure large differentials for on the job use of calculators telephones pens or pencils or for those who work while sitting down we argue that these findings cast some doubt on the literal interpretation of the computer use wage differential as reflecting true returns to computer use or skill

dynamics of a floating exchange rate regime we study the full equilibrium dynamics of a two country world economy with a floating exchange rate traded and nontraded goods and explicit modeling of the use of money the resulting exchange rate equation depends on several details of the economic structure such as the supply structure and propensities to spend on various goods although real exchange rate movements have the usual association with the current account the ordinary exchange rate may appreciate or depreciate when there are deficits on current account even when the quantities of money do not change deviations from purchasing power parity and the fisher equation are shown to be the rule rather than the exception

currency substitution in a production economy abstract this paper examines a small open economy with endogenous employment using an intergenerational model under floating rates risk averse workers enhance their welfare through currency substitution workers currency substitution behavior produces a phillips curve with anticipated exchange rate movement and domestic inflationary expectation as explanatory variables the dependence of the level of equilibrium employment on the terms of trade is demonstrated finally the association between exchange rates and current accounts is examined in relation to the role of money