definition consistent measurement of exchange market pressure currencies can be under severe pressure but in a managed exchange rate regime that is not fully visible via the change in the exchange rate the literature has proposed a way to measure such exchange market pressure emp indirectly by adding interest rate changes and forex interventions to the exchange rate change we demonstrate that this measure is not consistent with the definition of emp and develop a new measure that is consistent this is first derived within the commonly used monetary exchange rate model then we generalize the analysis by avoiding the use of an exchange rate model we find that the interest rate should not be taken in the first difference form used so far but rather in level form and relative to the interest rate chosen if the country had no exchange rate objective applications on the european monetary system and east asian crises confirm that this improvement is highly relevant in practice

the effect of annuity insurance on savings and inequality this paper examines the amount of precautionary savings and wealth inequality arising from life span uncertainty by comparing saving behavior under perfect insurance arrangements with that arising under imperfect arrangements namely when longevity risk can be pooled only with members of one s own family the central findings of the paper are that 1 perfecting insurance arrangements can sharply lower savings in both intergenerationally altruistic and life cycle economies and that 2 in altruistic economies perfecting annuity insurance can greatly influence inequality indeed in the long run in our model switching from imperfect family insurance to perfect insurance can mean the difference between absolute inequality and absolute equality

an exchange market pressure measure for cross country analysis abstract emp measures in the existing literature are oriented towards applications in crisis dating and prediction we propose a modified emp measure where cross country comparisons are possible this is the sum of the observed change in the exchange rate with an estimated counterfactual of the magnitude of the change in the exchange rate associated with the observed currency intervention we construct a multi country dataset for emp in each month this opens up many new research possibilities

measuring and estimating exchange market pressure in the eu abstract this paper estimates a model of exchange market pressure for several eu currencies vis a vis the german mark over the period 1980 94 it differs from previous work in that we use principal components analysis to derive a measure of exchange market pressure rather than adding exchange rate and reserves changes or using ad hoc weighting schemes secondly we also try to explain movements in our measure of exchange market pressure by a wealth augmented monetary model the results suggest that exchange market pressure can indeed be explained by differential money growth the change in the long term interest rate differential real depreciation budget deficit and the current account for five members of the eu s exchange rate mechanism

are any growth theories robust this article investigates the strength of empirical evidence for various growth theories when there is model uncertainty with respect to the correct growth model using model averaging methods we find little evidence that so called fundamental growth theories play an important role in explaining aggregate growth in contrast we find strong evidence for macroeconomic policy effects and a role for unexplained regional heterogeneity as well as some evidence of parameter heterogeneity in the aggregate production function we conclude that the ability of cross country growth regressions to adjudicate the relative importance of alternative growth theories is limited despite the vast amount of empirical research generated by new growth theories there is remarkably little consensus on which mechanisms are most salient in explaining cross country differences this article is designed to provide some evidence on this question by examining the robustness of empirical support for different growth the ories as determinants of both aggregate growth and its underlying components total factor productivity tfp growth and physical and human capital accumulation one reason for the lack of empirical consensus on growth determinants is that the main statistical tool in empirical studies cross country growth regressions provides very different answers depending on how the regression is specified which for this context typically amounts to the choice of control variables individual papers typically employ regressions that include modest subsets of the body of regressors that have been pro posed in the literature as a whole others employ a kitchen sink approach to evaluate the relative evidentiary support of competing growth theories in such an exercise a large number of variables are included in a regression and those variables that prove to be significant are then declared to be the important determinants of growth while the others are dismissed as unimportant rodrik et al 2002 sachs 2003

bequest as a public good within marriage a note bequest to and marriage of children can lead to a pareto inefficient allocation the inefficiency or market failure arises because one family making a bequest to its own child ignores the contribution to the utility of the other family whose child enters the marriage this note shows that an assortative mating rule based on bequests can improve or even restore pareto efficiency when parents take account of the rule in deciding the amount of bequests to their own children

energy aesthetics and knowledge in complex economic systems it is argued that the fact that economic systems are dissipative structures must be taken fully into account in economics if we are to understand the nature of the economic ecological interface and how to deal with emergent environmental problems such as global warming such problems are a product of economic growth which is widely accepted to be the outcome of the acquisition and application of knowledge drawing upon disparate literatures within and outside economics it is argued that economic growth should be more properly viewed as the outcome of a co evolutionary process that involves the autocatalytic interaction of new knowledge and access of increasing amounts of free energy to do increasingly specialized forms of work specifically the relevance of the energy hypothesis associated with erwin schrodinger and more recently revived by eric schneider and his collaborators is assessed this hypothesis states that all dissipative structures have as their primary objective the reduction of accessible free energy gradients it is concluded that such a hypothesis cannot be rejected in the context of economic behaviour and that this opens up an important research agenda for economists

cognition market sentiment and financial instability the purpose of this paper is to explore the role for psychology within an open system structural theory of financial instability and to consider the implications for policy while behavioural finance has drawn on ideas from psychology in order to explain evidence of behaviour that deviates from the rationality axioms it is argued that the way in which psychology is framed by this approach is unduly limiting minsky s structural theory of financial instability with its keynesian and ultimately humean roots incorporates psychology into the theoretical foundations in particular cognition and sentiment are shown to be interconnected rather than separable it is concluded that the policy implications for addressing the current crisis while apparently similar between these different approaches are in fact very different the underlying theory involves different methodology and indeed different framing from behavioural finance the way in which the crisis is understood is therefore important for policy copyright the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

capital accumulation and the characteristics of private intergenerational transfers many recent studies of the process of family accumulation in general and household response to social security in particular have revealed growing dissatisfaction with the life cycle theory of saving see for example barro 1978 kotlikoff 1979 darby 1979 kotlikoff and summers 1981 kurz 1981 blinder gordon and wise 1981 david and menchik 1982 leimer and lesnoy 1982 an alternative to the life cycle hypothesis is expressed by defining the preference of each family over its own consumption as well as the welfare of the generations that follow thus each family consists of an infinite chain of generations who have interdependent preferences and for this reason we shall call it the inter generational hypothesis it was recently used by barro 1974 1978 to attack the conclusions of the life cycle hypothesis our purpose in this paper is to start the long road of studying the structure of the private inter generational transfer system with the aim of providing additional tests of the two competing hypotheses

sine praejudicio economics and the 2014 scottish independence referendum the purpose of this paper is to analyse the contribution of expert economic opinion to the 2014 referendum campaigns on scottish independence we argue that the input from economics to both sides of the debate as well as to independent analysis was constrained by a mainstream economics framing the result was a focus on calculable outcomes predicated on unchanging institutions and behaviour and the question of currency arrangements that assumes the status quo is an optimal currency area as the consequences of constitutional change for institutions and behaviour are uncertain an equilibrium framework treats anything beyond calculable prediction as a shock inducing fear of the unknown in contrast a political economy approach is tailored to analysing uncertain developments and encompassing the broader issues relating to values democracy and power and is thus better suited to the analysis of constitutional change

home ownership as status competition some theory and evidence abstract in this paper we explore the implications of home ownership as a status good for housing prices more concretely if a family s housing wealth relative to others is an important sorting variable for relative attractiveness in the marriage market then competition for marriage partners might motivate people to pursue a bigger and more expensive house apartment to test the hypothesis we explore regional variations in the sex ratio for the pre marital age cohort across china as a proxy for differential strength for concerns for status we find that the evidence is consistent with the status competition hypothesis

economics and the self organisation approach alfred marshall revisited the economics of alfred marshall is reassessed in the light of new developments in the natural sciences whereby a nonequilibrium thermodynamic approach is adopted to analyze self organization in dissipative structures it is argued that there is a clear correspondence between marshall s treatment of time irreversibility and this modern approach particularly when the latter is set in an informational context thus his principles is viewed as a very useful starting point in adapting the self organization approach for application in economics the main features of such a post marshallian approach to economics are discussed and compared with the mechanical approach of neoclassicism copyright 1993 by royal economic society

incentives and social norms in household behavior in a broad psychological perspective both economic incentives and social norms may be be regarded as giving rise to purposesful or rational behavior by this i simply mean that individuals act in accordance with expected reward or punishment even though the form these take differs substantially in the two cases whereas economic incentives imply material rewards or favors that can be traded for such rewards including leisure social norms imply social rewards the latter basically take the form of approval or disapproval from others and related feelings of pride or shame moreover once a social norm has been internalized in an individual s own value system behavior in accordance with or against the norm will also result in feelings of self respect or guilt all this suggests that not only economic incentives but also social norms may be analyzed by means of utility theory as will be illustrated below many social norms may not have much to do with economic incentives elster 1989 in some cases it is however useful to study the interaction between them indeed this is the basic message of the paper my discussion will be limited to three norms of apparent importance for household behavior i work norms ii norms against wage underbidding and iii saving and consumption norms thus the paper deals with norms concerning willingness to work ability to get a job and the use of income this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed

population policies demographic structural changes and the chinese household saving puzzle abstract using combined data from population censuses and urban household surveys we study the effects of demographic structural changes on the rise of household savings in china variations in fines across provinces for unauthorized births under the one child policy and in cohort specific fertility influenced by the implementation of population control policies are exploited to facilitate identification we find evidence that older households with fewer adult children saved more middle aged households with fewer dependent children experienced increase in savings and younger households with fewer siblings also saved more these findings lend support to a simple economic model in which the effects of population control policies are investigated in the context of household saving decisions in china

ontology and the study of social reality emergence organisation community power social relations corporations artefacts and money the conception of social reality i have previously defended and here extend positing features such as social relations positions and powers is thoroughly naturalistic and even consistent with modern interpretations of quantum field theory it also serves to ground a social science that can be scientific in the sense of natural science this is the thesis defended here central to the argument is an emphasis on a strong form of emergence and the category of organisation in process to bring out various salient features of the position defended i take the opportunity to compare aspects of it with relevant components of the contribution of john searle whose ontological conception appears at once to be both very similar yet also very different copyright the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

ontology and the history of economic thought the case of anti reductionism in the work of friedrich hayek tony lawson has long advocated an ontological turn in the history of economic thought this essay aims to contribute towards that goal by considering how one aspect of the methodology adopted by a prominent heterodox economist was informed by ontological considerations the economist is friedrich hayek the aspect of his methodology concerns the possibility of reductionism while the ontological category that informs his anti reductionist methodology though not as we shall see in a wholly consistent way is that of emergence the account presented below suggests that the notion of emergence played an increasingly important and also increasingly explicit role in the arguments hayek mounts against reductionism in his postwar work on theoretical psychology and social theory in the case of his theoretical psychology notwithstanding the fact that he had access to a set of concepts that afforded him the opportunity to mount an emergentist case against reductionism hayek s most prominent argument against reductionism was and remained computational rather than emergentist in nature in the case of his mature post 1960 social theory however hayek explicitly advanced a consistently emergentist case against reductionism based on the importance of organising relations for the generation of higher level structural properties such as the coordinative powers of the liberal market economy the implications of this ontologically informed discussion of hayek s arguments against reductionism for existing interpretations of hayek s work are considered

the current economic crisis its nature and the course of academic economics the current crisis has triggered significant debate concerning economic theory and policy largely absent from this debate is an informed discussion of the methods used by economists in analysing the economy and formulating their proposals but method matters here i argue that current academic research practices need to be transformed before real insight can be achieved specifically i indicate why and how a more grounded framework than that presupposed by current research practices facilitates a potentially more fruitful approach to understanding the crisis

shackle on time uncertainty and process this paper is intended both as a contribution to the conceptual work on process in economic thought and as an attempt to connect a non institutionalist non evolutionary thinker to it the paper has two principal objectives i to delineate a broad philosophically grounded conception of what an economic process theory ept is and ii to locate the contributions of george shackle within this broad conception of ept in pursuing these two objectives i hope to draw out the originality and significance of shackle s economics with a particular emphasis on what he adds to process conceptions developed within other heterodox traditions such as institutional and evolutionary economics i will also highlight some of the perceived limitations of shackle s approach and link them to the limitations of process philosophy

from simplistic to complex systems in economics the applicability of complex systems theory in economics is evaluated and compared with standard approaches to economic theorising based upon constrained optimisation a complex system is defined in the economic context and differentiated from complex systems in physio chemical and biological settings it is explained why it is necessary to approach economic analysis from a network rather than a production and utility function perspective when we are dealing with complex systems it is argued that much of heterodox thought particularly in neo schumpeterian and neo austrian evolutionary economics can be placed within a complex systems perspective upon the economy the challenge is to replace prevailing simplistic theories based in constrained optimisation with simple theories derived from network representations in which value is created through the establishment of new connections between elements

is foreign exchange intervention effective some microanalytical evidence from the czech republic abstract i estimate a two equation system on the czech koruna euro exchange rate and order flow at hourly frequency with transactions data from the reuters spot matching market in the second half of 2002 during which the czech national bank intervened to stem the appreciation of the koruna i find a significant impact of order flow on the exchange rate equal to 7 6 basis points per 10 million of which 80 persists throughout the day the news of intervention increases the price impact of order flow by 3 9 basis points per 10 million the order flow equation yields inconclusive results

econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change a methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometric model in the presence of structural change of an evolutionary type the theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn from the self organisation approach and operationalised in the context of the logistic diffusion growth model the latter is augmented to allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusion rate and boundary limit we show how the hypothesis of augmented logistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods an illustrative case study is used namely the growth and decline of australian building society deposits with the aid of this example it is shown how the approach could be of use to both economic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structural change where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate jel classification c51 c53 e42 e47 g18 o31

exchange rate policies in asia in an era of financial globalisation an empirical assessment ebbs and flows of capital have complicated macroeconomic policy management for all emerging market and developing economies emdes regardless of whether they have adopted flexible or managed exchange rate regimes in the light of the renewed interest in the trilemma versus dilemma debate we contribute to the related literature by presenting an empirical analysis of exchange rate flexibility and intervention for selected asian emdes over the time period 2001 2016 in addition to estimating augmented frankel wei regressions we employ a generalised auto regressive conditional heteroscedasticity garch model to assess the extent of foreign exchange fx intervention and whether there exist any asymmetries in the way countries intervene our results show that although there is greater flexibility in exchange rates there is evidence of some countries potentially using fx intervention to manage currency movements we also find evidence of asymmetry in intervention where exchange rate volatility responds more emphatically to fx sales than purchases

the effect of social security on lifetime wealth accumulation and bequests this paper is an empirical study of the effects of social security on lifetime wealth accumulation and bequests using a sample of wisconsin males we have matched lifetime earnings records from income tax returns with their social security account records and their bequests obtained from probate court records since the cohort of males was born between 1890 and 1899 they represent a cohort that saw a great change in the size and coverage by occupation of the system hence there is substantial within cohort variation in social security wealth from which effects can be estimated for nearly 30 years the life cycle theory of savings has enjoyed an enormous amount of academic support in the no bequest variant individuals save with the sole intention of consuming their savings in later years the economy wide stock of capital can therefore be generated by this pattern without any reliance on bequests modigliani 1966 such a model will lead to rather strong predictions about the effect of a pay as you go public pension hereafter social security on private savings as feldstein 1974 points out social security should displace private savings as well as reduce macro saving since the programme is unfunded this result follows from the assumption that each household will consume all of its assets during its own lifetime some recent research however has been at odds with the no bequest variant of the life cycle model see kurz 1984 and included references darby 1979 claims that life cycle assets savings consumed later in the life cycle constitute only 13 29 per cent of total assets kotlikoff and summers 1981 report that the major share nearly 80 per cent of capital stock in the united states is due to intergenerational transfers 2 indeed these authors write life cycle models of savings that emphasize savings for retirement as the dominant form of capital accumulation should give way to models that illuminate the determinants of intergenerational transfers p 706 in addition recent empirical work suggests that people tend to accumulate or fail to significantly decumulate wealth wealth in old age a finding at odds with the strict life cycle model 3 given the potentially large role of bequests in the process of capital accumulation it is important to know how bequests are affected by the large public programme that social security has become even if social security depresses private savings among those near or at retirement if people bequeath it is conceivable that saving during retirement is augmented by the programme 4 aside from the issue of savings effects the response of people s bequests to their old age benefits might allow one to assess the target efficiency of the social security system since the original objective of the system was to ensure adequate levels of consumption among the elderly a finding that benefits

motives for private transfers over the life cycle an analytical framework and evidence for peru abstract this paper tests for the motives for private income transfers we consider two motives altruism and exchange the question of private transfer motives is important because such motivation can influence the effects of public income transfers on the distribution of income using a household survey for peru we find that transfer amounts received increase with recipient pre transfer income which contradicts a key prediction of the strong form of the altruism hypothesis but is consistent with exchange we also find that capital market imperfections are likely to be an important cause of private transfers and that social security benefits crowd out the incidence of private transfers

foreign exchange intervention in emerging markets a survey of empirical studies nowadays foreign exchange interventions occur in emerging market economies whereas empirical studies on interventions mainly refer to advanced economies however interventions in emerging markets are different from those in advanced economies they occur regularly and central banks have considerable leverage derived from relatively high reserves some non sterilisation the central bank s information advantage and capital controls consequently these interventions often successfully impact the level and volatility of exchange rates nevertheless more research on interventions in emerging markets is needed analysing the influence of heterogeneous institutional circumstances examining the role of central bank communication and using high frequency data

do exchange rate shocks have asymmetric effects on reserve accumulation evidence from emerging markets it is generally argued that central banks in emerging market countries motivated by a desire to defend export competitiveness tend to intervene in foreign exchange markets to limit currency appreciations rather than depreciations using panel data from 13 emerging market countries for the period 1998 m1 to 2016 m12 we find that exchange rate shocks play an important role in determining the accumulation of international reserves moreover we find evidence that central banks in emerging markets tend to follow a leaning against the depreciation wind policy rather than the appreciation wind i e we provide evidence of a fear of depreciation

saving and bequest in china an analysis of intergenerational exchange particularly high saving rates among the elderly in both rural and urban china call for an investigation of the involved bequest motive utilizing unique survey data from a diverse group of chinese households we document that the magnitude of the bequest from parent to child is associated with the level of personal assistance from child to parent moreover we find indicative evidence that both bequest and assistance are increasing in the parent s income and decreasing in the child s income comparing with the predictions from a stylized intergenerational model these findings are consistent with an exchange based bequest motive our findings have potential implications for how public policies and transfer schemes should be designed in order to contribute to the chinese government objective of increased private consumption our results are conditional on the inclusion of housing wealth as part of the bequest which indicates that transfer of housing is key to understanding the intergenerational assistance and bequest motives and subsequently the high saving levels among the elderly in china

the chinese saving rate long term care risks family insurance and demographics abstract a general equilibrium model that properly captures the risks in old age the role of family insurance changes in demographics and the productivity growth rate is capable of generating changes in the national saving rate in china that mimic the data well our findings suggest that the combination of the risks faced by the elderly and the deterioration of family insurance due to the one child policy may account for approximately half of the increase in the saving rate between 1980 and 2010 changes in the productivity growth rate account for the fluctuations in the saving rate during this period

case based decision theory this paper suggests that decision making under uncertainty is at least partly case based we propose a model in which cases are primitive and provide a simple axiomatization of a decision rule that chooses a best act based on its past performance in similar cases each act is evaluated by the sum of the utility levels that resulted from using this act in past cases each weighted by the similarity of that past case to the problem at hand the formal model of case based decision theory naturally gives rise to the notions of satisficing decisions and aspiration levels

economic emergence an evolutionary economic perspective abstract the standard neoclassical approach to economic theorising excludes by definition economic emergence and the related phenomenon of entrepreneurship we explore how the most economic of human behaviours entrepreneurship came to be largely excluded from mainstream economic theory in contrast we report that evolutionary economists have acknowledged the importance of understanding emergence and we explore the advances that have been made in this regard we go on to argue that evolutionary economics can make further progress by taking a more naturalistic approach to economic evolution this requires that economic analysis be fully embedded in complex economic system theory and that associated understandings as to how humans react to states of uncertainty be explicitly dealt with we argue that knowledge because of the existence of uncertainty is to a large degree conjectural and thus is closely linked to our emotional states our economic behaviour is also influenced by the reality that we and the systems that we create are dissipative structures thus we introduce the notions of energy gradients and knowledge gradients as essential concepts in understanding economic emergence and resultant economic growth

motives for private income transfers private income transfers are becoming increasingly recognized as a key aspect of the u s economy the majority of private income transfers occur inter vivos i e between living persons but very little is known about this type of transfer behavior this paper tests alternative hypotheses concerning motivation for inter vivos transfers two motives are considered altruism and exchange evidence presented here casts doubt on the altruistic model of transfer behavior observed patterns for inter vivos transfers are more consistent with exchange related motives this finding has important implications for the effects of public transfer programs on the distribution of economic well being

leaving the mainstream behind uncovering subjective understandings of economics instructors roles in the wake of the economic crisis a number of student organizations and researchers highlighted the lack of pluralism and heterodox approaches in economics curricula the relevance of pluralism becomes clear once set within the implications of a given scientific discourse on reality e g economics and policy making this study explores the role of instructors in co constructing the pluralism discourse and debates while recognizing the role of institutional obstacles to change within the discipline an empirical field study is conducted with lecturers in introductory economics courses at the wu vienna university of economics and business where they place themselves within the pluralism discourse via a q study a mixed method employed for studying subjectivity in socially contested topics in q a set of statements undergo a sorting procedure on a relative ranking scale followed by factor rendering four voices are identified moderate pluralist mainstreamers responsible pluralists and applied pluralists the implications of their ideas are discussed from the viewpoint of discursive institutionalism stressing the role of ideas and discourse in institutional change although a discursive readiness for changes towards more pluralism is claimed strategies for overcoming the difficulties on the institutional level need to be developed

notions of order and process in hayek the significance of emergence this article explores the notions of order and process to which friedrich hayek subscribed it is argued that a satisfactory understanding of hayek s conceptions of order and process and in particular a clear understanding of those how the two concepts relate to each other in his scheme of thought requires an appreciation of the ontological categories of emergence and emergent properties ultimately for hayek the capacity of liberal market economies to co ordinate people s actions in the face of tacit and dispersed knowledge is an emergent property that arises only when people s interactions are governed by certain sets of rules this static analysis of the co ordinative powers of the market as an emergent property of a given system of rules must be supplemented by a dynamic account of the process through which the set of rules in question comes into being hayek provides such an account in his account of society as developing through a multi level evolutionary process key implications of hayek s accounts of order and process for debates about the co ordinative powers of free market economies are drawn out

collective wage bargaining and the role of institutional stability a cross national comparison of macroeconomic performance since the advent of the economic crisis interest in the efficacy of collective wage bargaining institutions has increased as the labour market was required to bear the burden of economic adjustment and became an important policy field for institutional reform in many countries in this article the role of institutional stability trust and certainty for the efficacy of collective bargaining systems is investigated and their effects on macroeconomic outcomes inflation and unemployment are analysed we argue that stability of the institutional framework of collective bargaining is of major importance for its efficacy as it reduces uncertainty and provides the necessary basis for trust among bargaining actors thus we hypothesise that institutional change and instability are associated with significant transaction costs and have at least temporarily negative effects on economic outcomes the hypotheses are confirmed by an empirical analysis which uses data of 34 industrialised countries from 1965 to 2014

addressing uncertainty in economics and the economy this article explores the way society in general and economists in particular deal with fundamental uncertainty it is argued that uncertainty is interdependent with the evolution of institutions and behaviour including that designed to help society cope with uncertainty whilst some mainstream theory does address uncertainty it employs a much narrower concept than fundamental uncertainty generally in spite of the evident increase in fundamental uncertainty during the crisis most mainstream theory ignores it although ignoring uncertainty can sometimes be a successful coping mechanism it is argued that as a blanket coping mechanism ignoring uncertainty seriously limits the realism of theory and therefore also practice and policy it is concluded that economists should embrace uncertainty by tailoring methodologies and theories to address it this would provide a more fruitful basis for policy aimed at reducing uncertainty in the economy and also reducing our own uncertainty

the anatomy of emergence with a focus upon capital formation abstract emergence is a unifying theme of both evolutionary economics and complex systems theory in spite of this centrality emergence in economics has not been subject to an extensive critical analysis this paper remedies this deficit we identify several conditions that economic patterns i e rule systems structures must satisfy to qualify as emergent 1 material realization emergent patterns are realized in physical structures and processes 2 coherence pattern is not a mere aggregate but a systemic whole 3 non distributivity pattern possesses global properties absent from its parts 4 structure dependence systemic properties depend upon connective structure these four core features are common to all forms of emergence in economics evolutionary economic systems also exhibit extra strength versions of emergence which require that patterns possess one or more additional features 5 genuine novelty 6 unpredictability in principle and 7 irreducibility we introduce three basic forms of emergence that occur in economic systems minimal diachronic and synchronic emergence and apply these ideas to capital formation at all levels of economic order the economy wide capital structure exhibits strongly emergent properties both diachronic and synchronic that depend on its structural and functional organization it is not a mere aggregate of capital goods within the realm of capital phenomena we also compare the distinguishing characteristics of emergent and spontaneous self organizing orders we provide a case study of the iphone as an emergent capital pattern to illustrate conditions 1 7 above and the different types of emergence

technology and economic theory technology and technological change play a central role in economics whether in the theory of resource allocation or in the theory of growth and development yet the nature of technology is largely ignored in economic theory it being considered sufficient to treat technology as a constraint on productive opportunities this short essay delves a little deeper into the nature of technology and the material energy and information transformation processes that it represents a deeper understanding of technology leads to a deeper understanding of the main currents of technological advance and to the reasons why the development of technology and its application are so uneven over time and place copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

non bayesian decision theory ahead of its time the case of g l s shackle this article deals with the reception of george l s shackle s volume expectation in economics introducing a unique attempt to discard the probability framework in the investigation of behaviour under uncertainty through a fresh reading of the textual evidence including correspondence held at cambridge university library the article assesses why decision theorists interest in shackle s theory substantial during the 1950s faded away in the early 1960s the article argues that apart from shackle s refusal to comprehend that his critics were under the influence of a new subjective probability perspective a major explanation of the dismissal of his work stays in shackle s stance not to establish a collaborative link with those critics who showed a positive attitude towards his theory the article shows though that the discussion between shackle and his critics hinged on a number of topics that are still crucial to the current developments of decision theory

institutions economics and the development quest institutions crucial for the analysis of how agents deal with uncertainty have been gaining increasing relevance on the economic research agenda in this paper we analyze the institutional literature aiming to explain why this perspective obtains better results than others in development economics in particular we stress the relevance of new institutional economics as an adequate framework for a broad understanding of development issues

uncertainty and imagination illusion and order shackleian connections shackle s work has many connections to economic scientific and philosophical ideas and also to the practicalities of economic organization and business management uncertainty is not only a pervasive problem but a necessary condition for human intelligence initiative and imagination unpredictability is essential to both scientific progress and entrepreneurship we create knowledge by making patterns that enable us to impose order and envisage new combinations in an evolutionary process driven by human purpose of competing and complementary conjectures many of which turn out to be false representations though academia was shackle s natural environment he was always concerned with applicability and testament to the practical relevance of his ideas is provided by two former senior managers with particular emphasis on the fundamental and domain specific issues of what to think about and how to think about it copyright the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

imperfect commitment altruism and the family evidence from transfer behavior in low income rural areas in this paper we examine empirically whether risk pooling is more advantageous among altruistic compared to selfish agents in a framework where individuals cannot make binding commitments in particular we incorporate altuism into a model of risk sharing under imperfect commitment and use simulation methods to establish tests of the roles of both altruism and commitment problems in determining the extent of insurance and the intertemporal movements in interhousehold transfers the tests are carried out using three panel data sets from two countries of rural south asia that provide detailed information on transfers and enable the measurement of income shocks the estimates provide strong support for the notion that imperfect commitment substantially constrains informal transfer arrangements whether kin based or not but also provide evidence that altruism plays an important role in ameliorating commitment constraints and thus in increasing the gains from income pooling

shackle on choice imagination and creativity hayekian foundations this paper develops a response to some of the criticisms that have been made of g l s shackle s analysis of human decision making because of its reliance on a cartesian account of the mind it is argued that the basis for a response can be found in the work on theoretical psychology developed by shackle s fellow subjectivist and one time phd supervisor f a hayek in particular the ideas advanced by hayek in his 1952 book the sensory order can be used to provide an account of the mind that avoids the shortcomings of shackle s cartesianism whilst still doing justice to his emphasis on genuine choice expectations and the role of creativity and the imagination in human decision making