the growth and distributional consequences of international trade in natural resources and capital goods a neo austrian analysis abstract the problem explored is the role of natural resources in economic growth a neo austrian model is constructed which can represent either a single autarchic country or a pair of trading countries one of which can export natural resources and the other can export manufactured capital it is shown that under autarchy the price of the natural resource has no effect on economic growth while under conditions of trade it has a significant influence falling natural resource prices slow the growth in the resource exporting country and stimulate it in the capital exporting country some policy implications of this finding are explored

natural resources curse or blessing are natural resources a curse or a blessing the empirical evidence suggests that either outcome is possible this paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources these include that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate deindustrialization and bad growth prospects and that these adverse effects are more severe in volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law corruption presidential democracies and underdeveloped financial systems another hypothesis is that a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing and civil conflict especially if institutions are bad induces corruption especially in nondemocratic countries and keeps in place bad policies finally resource rich developing economies seem unable to successfully convert their depleting exhaustible resources into other productive assets the survey also offers some welfare based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies

the long term consequences of resource based specialisation using geological variation in oil abundance in the southern us i examine the long term effects of resource based specialisation through economic channels in 1890 oil abundant counties were similar to other nearby counties but after oil was discovered they began to specialise in its production from 1940 90 oil abundance increased local employment per square kilometre especially in mining but also in manufacturing oil abundant counties had higher population growth higher per capita income and better infrastructure 2010 the author s the economic journal 2010 royal economic society

natural resource rents economic dynamics and structural change a capital theoretic approach abstract this paper concerns the effects of natural resource rents on the dynamics and structural change of an economy which is accumulating capital the concept of rent is developed and the determinants of natural resource rents in the real world are discussed to examine the long run effects of rents on the price system and economic structural change a neo austrian capital theoretic model is developed this is presented in input output form and the corresponding prices for the model are derived so that a consistent set of national accounts for the model can be found natural resource use is introduced into the model with natural resource rents forming a further element of value added the model is then further generalised with the dynamics of capital accumulation being determined through a savings function which itself varies with the rate of return on capital this model is used to simulate the effect on economic dynamics and structural change of two natural resource rent profiles both of which follow the hotelling rule the effects of these two cases on the model are examined through the corresponding sets of national accounts

agricultural payments and land concentration a semiparametric spatial regression analysis over the last twenty years both crop production and agricultural payments have shifted toward larger operations this study examines whether payments from federal farm programs contributed to increased concentration of cropland and farmland using zip code level data constructed from the microfiles of the 1987 2002 agriculture censuses we examine the association between government payments per acre and subsequent growth in land concentration a semiparametric generalized additive model gam controls for location and historical concentration sales per acre and ratio of cropland area to zip code area findings indicate both with and without nonparametric controls government payments are strongly associated with subsequent concentration growth copyright 2008 oxford university press

input trade and the location of production stanley engerman has been a presence in the department of economics at the university of rochester for over 37 years he was an early and eminent participant in the cliometric revolution that swept throughout the economichistory profession in the 1960 s and 1970 s we doubt that anyone could have anticipated the gathering storm that greeted the publication of time on the cross co authored with robert fogel in 1974 since that time stan has become the world s leading authority on slavery in the americas and the caribbean as well as an important contributor to a set of issues ranging from the 19th century american iron industry to the economics of british imperialism his own human capital as extensive as we know it to be is complemented by capital of the physical variety an enormous library of research material spilling over into bookshelves and floors in several offices in rochester and attracting a yearly stream of itinerant scholars anxious to pick his books as well as his brains in this short note we intend to honor stan by applying the tools of international trade theory to illustrate several episodes in the development of industries both in the united states and in world markets a colleague of stan s at rochester lionel mckenzie once commented that in 19th century britain lancashire would have been unlikely to produce cotton cloth if the cotton had to be grown in england mckenzie 1954 this remark expresses in utter brevity the importance to production and trading patterns of the domain of tradability of raw materials or intermediate products for example it is difficult to envisage the patterns of production and trade in modern day japan should it be denied access to world supplies of oil coal and iron ore local production of each of these items being negligible transport costs as well as man made impediments to trade are mainly responsible for variations in the degree of access countries possess to the inputs available in the markets of other countries simple competitive generalequilibrium models of production of the type intensively utilized in the theory of international trade can usefully be harnessed to shed light on several episodes in 19th century american economic history in which the nature of trading possibilities for raw materials heavily influenced the extent to which local american production of final commodities could withstand the pressures in world markets without the aid of protective devices the simplest model setting in which to investigate the importance of trade in raw materials is a ricardian model augmented by the necessity of using a produced input in addition to labor in at least one commodity denote the pair of final commodities by x and y where in order to produce y a certain quantity of intermediate good z is required the competitive profit conditions for the two final commodities are shown in equation 1

why farmers quit a county level analysis we identify the effects of alternative explanatory variables on the propensity of u s farmers to cease farming with a particular emphasis on understanding the roles of off farm employment and federal farm program payments conventional ordinary least squares analysis using all counties suggests that off farm employment has no statistical effect on the net number of farmers quitting between 1987 and 1997 ceteris paribus a more refined analysis which separates counties losing farmers from those that gained farmers reveals subtle and less clear cut effects of off farm employment and federal program payments on farm exits copyright 2001 oxford university press

the evolution of the industrial organisation of the production of knowledge this work elaborates the notion of localised technological knowledge based upon the distinction between information competence and knowledge and analyses the emergence of the new knowledge industry the evolution of the organisation of knowledge production is analysed through four stylised modes scientific entrepreneurship institutional variety vertical integration and technological cooperation the new trends towards the growth of knowledge intensive business service industries are detected and underlined they are considered as the outcome of the institutional formation of a market for knowledge based upon a process of increasing appropriability of localised knowledge based on the blending of generic scientific information and competence and growing scope of applicability via computercommunication systems deverticalisation of research activities from the boundaries of corporations the specification of a demand for technological competence and the specialising of independent firms in the production of technological competence and knowledge

the curse of natural resources in fractionalized countries abstract this paper develops a model that can explain why natural resources are a blessing for some countries but a curse for others in this model natural resources cause fighting activities between rivalling groups fighting reduces productive activities and weakens property rights making productive activities even less attractive the aggregate production decrease exceeds the natural resources direct positive income effect if and only if the number of rivalling groups is sufficiently large the model thus predicts that natural resources lower incomes in fractionalized countries but increase incomes in homogenous countries empirical evidence supporting this prediction is provided

contract and exit decisions in finisher hog production finisher hog production in north america has shifted toward larger units and contract format since 1990 exit among independent growers has been high we develop a model showing that growers with any of three efficiency attributes lower innate hazard of exit variable costs or contract adoption costs are more likely to contract produce more and expend more on business protection using 2004 agricultural resource management survey data a recursive bivariate probit model confirms that contracting producers are less likely to exit specialization increases the probability of contracting education nonfarm income and older production facilities are significant in increasing expected exit

factor price convergence in the late nineteenth century the authors examine a dramatic historical episode of factor price convergence in the late nineteenth century their focus is convergence between old world and new and the analysis centers on land and labor wage rental ratios boomed in the old world and collapsed in the new moving the resource rich labor scarce new world closer to the resource scarce labor abundant old world the authors use econometrics and simulations to identify proconvergence forces which include commodity price convergence factor accumulation and factor saving biases the results confirm that open economy characteristics and international market integration are important sources of convergence copyright 1996 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

optimal timing of farm transferal from parent to child when farm income is first increasing and then decreasing in the operator s age the timing of farm transferal from parent to child is optimally determined by families who seek to maximize joint income or utility using a sample of israeli farms in which the operation of the farm changed from parent to child between 1971 and 1981 equations of transfer time and child s education are derived a simultaneous equation censored regression model is estimated using a two stage method results support the theoretical predictions that transfer time is decreasing with parent s age and with child s schooling and increasing with parent s experience

business models of heat entrepreneurship in finland abstract this paper presents the business models of small scale heat energy production in finland firstly the development of heat entrepreneurship in the country is presented including the remarkable growth of small and medium size enterprises smes in the last 15 years secondly the concept of business model business architecture of product service flows and earning logics is modified to the framework of wood heat production the business model concept and its sub concepts is applied in a brief review of current heat energy businesses in finland we arrive at a business model of heat entrepreneurships that are public companies utilities public private partnerships private companies and cooperatives energy saving company esco network model of large enterprise and franchising descriptive cases of these models are presented finally the paper concludes with a discussion on the applicability of the business models in different operational environments and geographical contexts

the cost of doing business in africa evidence from enterprise survey data summary data from the world bank enterprise surveys show that indirect costs related to infrastructure and services account for a relatively high share of firms costs in poor african countries and pose a competitive burden on african firms we estimate firm level revenue and value added functions for six industries in 17 developing countries demonstrating that firm performance is sensitive to the cost of indirect inputs as indirect inputs are not usually included in estimations of value added we argue that existing estimates understate the relative performance of african manufacturing firms

immigrants and the making of america we study the effects of european immigration to the u s during the age of mass migration 1850 1920 on economic prosperity exploiting cross county variation in immigration that arises from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and of the gradual expansion of the railway network we find that counties with more historical immigration have higher income less poverty less unemployment higher rates of urbanization and greater educational attainment today the long run effects seem to capture the persistence of short run benefits including greater industrialization increased agricultural productivity and more innovation

differentiation and synergies in rural tourism estimation and simulation of the israeli market this article applies a discrete choice equilibrium model with product differentiation to study the rural tourism industry in israel and to jointly estimate the effect of lodging and farm characteristics on consumer preferences and firms costs the model accounts for heterogeneity in tastes and technologies and allows for unobservable product characteristics we find evidence for technological synergy in the joint production of agricultural goods and rural tourism services but none in the demand the differentiation in the industry is the major contributor to the price cost margin which averages 62 an additional minor cause is government regulation which restricts supply simulation results demonstrate the growth potential of the industry and show that the government can play an important role in catalyzing growth via investment subsidization deregulation of supply and information distribution

differential human capital investments and the choice of successor in family farms economic development typically is characterized by occupational migration away from agriculture migrants commonly are more educated than average on the other hand the remaining farmers are expected to master more sophisticated production techniques hence the pace of development depends on human capital accumulation of the population as a whole and of farmers in particular for this reason it is important to understand the way human capital investment decisions are made in the rural sector human capital levels are determined to a large extent within the family i e through investments of parents in their children becker chap 6 investments in children are motivated by altruism becker pp 362 79 by concern about family succession chu and by expectations of receiving benefits from descendants in the future bernheim schleifer and summers parents care for migrating children as well as for succeeding children they can also influence the decisions of succession versus migration both directly through their authority and indirectly through differential investments in sector specific human capital intergenerational succession is common in the farm sector as the value of the farm within the family is higher than its market value kimhi 1994b farms in developed economies generally are not large enough to permit division among several successors hence this discussion will focus on the case of a single successor one of the difficult decisions facing the farm family is the choice of a suitable successor birth order and age differentials of children affect this decision since the choice is not independent of the timing of farm transfer kimhi 1994a the emphasis in this paper is on differential ability if one child has an absolute advantage in farming and the other in off farm jobs the choice is easy it is more difficult when one child is more able to run the farm and can also do better off the farm on the one

growth theory and industrial revolutions in britain and america abstract long run economic growth has again become a major focus of economic theory a perception of technological change as an economic process with externalities has motivated the development of aggregate models that generate different steady state growth paths economic history has also long been interested in long run economic growth here a dialogue is presented between growth theory and the historical literature on the industrial revolution in britain and america s surge to international economic leadership in the late nineteenth century in conclusion economists recent thinking about the microeconomics of technological change has provided fruitful material for the economic historian of growth unfortunately the models of endogenous growth on the other hand present too aggregated a view of the economy to prove helpful when confronted with the details of economic history jel classification n0 n1 1 theorie de la croissance et revolutions industrielles en grande bretagne et en amerique la croissance economique a long terme est redevenue un point d interet majeur pour la theorie economique une perception du changement technologique comme processus economique porteur d externalites a engendre le developpement de modeles agreges qui generent differents sentiers de croissance en regime permanent l histoire economique s interesse depuis longtemps a la croissance economique a long terme ce texte engage le dialogue entre la theorie de la croissance et la litterature historique a propos de la revolution industrielle en grande bretagne et de l emergence de l amerique au statut de leader international a la fin du dix neuvieme siecle on en arrive a la conclusion que les recents developpements dans la pensee economique a propos de la micro economie du changement technologique ont produit des resultats utiles pour l histoire economique de la croissance malheureusement d autre part les modeles de croissance endogene presente une vue trop agregee de l economie pour s averer utile dans l examen des details de l histoire economique

the voracity effect abstract we analyze an economy that lacks a strong legal political institutional infrastructure and is populated by multiple powerful groups powerful groups dynamically interact via a fiscal process that effectively allows open access to the aggregate capital stock in equilibrium this leads to slow economic growth and a voracity effect by which a shock such as a terms of trade windfall perversely generates a more than proportionate increase in fiscal redistribution and reduces growth we also show that a dilution in the concentration of power leads to faster growth and a less procyclical response to shocks jel f43 o10 o23 o40

variable costs and the visible hand the re regulation of electricity supply 1932 37 national transmission grid and rationalize uk electricity generation a constrained cost model estimates the gains from this re regulation of the electricity generating industry the new regime reduced costs by one third radically improving the utilization of capital and boosting the average scale of operations it did so by persuading private and municipal enterprises to accept central direction of the extent and timing of their electricity generation this voluntarism saved on enforcement costs but perhaps one half of the industry cost reduction the ceb actually achieved by 1937 was apparently forgone

scarcity resource price uncertainty and economic growth over the course of the past decade significant steps have been taken to empirically link indicators of resource scarcity to changes in economic growth this paper extends this previous literature in two ways first rather than concentrating exclusively on energy we focus on the technological change embodied in the prices of an array of complementary natural resource inputs second we investigate using g arch methods the importance of resource price uncertainty as well as resource price levels on aggregate economic growth we find that output growth is significantly influenced by both resource price levels and resource price uncertainty

how do patent laws influence innovation evidence from nineteenth century world fairs studies of innovation have focused on the effects of patent laws on the number of innovations but have ignored effects on the direction of technological change this paper introduces a new dataset of close to fifteen thousand innovations at the crystal palace world s fair in 1851 and at the centennial exhibition in 1876 to examine the effects of patent laws on the direction of innovation the paper tests the following argument if innovative activity is motivated by expected profits and if the effectiveness of patent protection varies across industries then innovation in countries without patent laws should focus on industries where alternative mechanisms to protect intellectual property are effective analyses of exhibition data for 12 countries in 1851 and 10 countries in 1876 indicate that inventors in countries without patent laws focused on a small set of industries where patents were less important while innovation in countries with patent laws appears to be much more diversified these findings suggest that patents help to determine the direction of technical change and that the adoption of patent laws in countries without such laws may alter existing patterns of comparative advantage across countries jel d2 k11 l51 no 014

farm income variability and the supply of off farm labor if farmers are risk averse greater farm income variability should increase off farm labor supply this effect is confirmed for a sample of kansas farmers off farm employment of farmers and their spouses is also found to be significantly influenced by farm experience off farm work experience farm size leverage efficiency and farm specific education in addition farm operators and spouses who receive significant income support through government farm programs are less likely to work off the farm this may suggest that policy changes reducing farm income support payments may increase off farm employment of farmers and their spouses

production and environmental resources a prelude to an evolutionary framework the paper advances a framework to study the evolution of technology and institutions it is based on two simple tenets first the quality and quantity of environmental resources are defined and constrained by the regime of technology and institutions second the character and extent of innovations are informed and limited by the regime as well the framework is contrasted with neoclassical and ecological economics while the framework assimilates ideas from both paradigms it departs from them by stressing the importance of the technological institutional regime tir the two views ignore in different ways the significance of tir 46 the neoclassical program conceives the flow of innovations as tir independent while the ecological agenda regards the fund of resources as tir independent 1 consequently both camps fail to provide an endogenous account of the observed punctuated character of the evolution of tir neoclassical economists maintain that as a resource depletes its price rises which induces switching to a cheaper one encourages exploration or spurs invention harold barnett and chandler morse 7 11 state that nature imposes particular scarcities not an inescapable general scarcity the responses to environmental resource limitation are supposedly singular activities stripped from any underpinning regime the neoclassical disregard of tir heuristically resembles the fable of marie antoinette s folly in response to the scarcity of bread at the eve of the french revolution she advised according to legend buying cake instead ecological economists offer a different view of resource limits 48 for herman daly 21 8 nature really does impose an inescapable general scarcity while neoclassical economists emphasize relative limitation scarcity pricing ecological economists stress malthusian general limitation for ecological economists substitution can solve relative allocation but cannot solve general limitation general limitation can be avoided only if economic activity proceeded within certain boundaries or as put by martin o connor 69 within appropriate cyclical structure of resource transformations under the motto sustainable development a low pace production activity supposedly enables a population to replicate indefinitely ecological economists conceive

farm level production effects from participation in government commodity programs did the 1996 federal agricultural improvement and reform act make a difference in theory lump sum transfers are a way to redistribute wealth without distorting production decisions recent agricultural policy reforms are an unusual large scale application of this concept the 1996 federal agricultural improvement and reform fair act removed most price contingent agricultural subsidies and replaced them with production flexibility contracts lump sum payments with few ties to farmers production decisions the payments were envisioned as way to maintain income transfers to agricultural interests while minimizing production distortions the united states has argued that these decoupled agricultural payments are minimally trade distorting usda ers there is a great deal of uncertainty about how the system of agricultural payments established under the 1996 reforms affects production some including representatives from developing nations with domestic agricultural sectors that compete with the united states contend that decoupled payments significantly affect agricultural production and trade two general arguments underpin this assertion first decoupled payments are not really lump sum that is despite the reforms important links to production remain for example there are restrictions in the fair act that preclude new vegetable plantings or the conversion of land to nonagricultural uses second the perfect market assumptions underpinning the

natural resources rent seeking and welfare abstract a new and very simple mechanism to explain why natural resource abundance may lower income and welfare is developed in a model with rent seeking a greater amount of natural resources increases the number of entrepreneurs engaged in rent seeking and reduces the number of entrepreneurs running productive firms with a demand externality it is shown that the drop in income as a result of this is higher than the increase in income from the natural resource more natural resources thus lead to lower welfare

institutions and the resource curse countries rich in natural resources constitute both growth losers and growth winners we claim that the main reason for these diverging experiences is differences in the quality of institutions more natural resources push aggregate income down when institutions are grabber friendly while more resources raise income when institutions are producer friendly we test this theory building on sachs and warner s influential works on the resource curse our main hypothesis that institutions are decisive for the resource curse is confirmed our results contrast the claims of sachs and warner that institutions do not play a role

family farm dynamics in canada and israel the case of farm exits abstract canada is one of the few countries for which data exist on individual family farms over time using these data researchers have been able to show that much of the microdynamics of family farms in canada e g changes in size distribution can be attributed to farmer entry and exit however the behavioral aspects of the exit decision received little attention in the literature a comparison of canadian and israeli data could help us understand these behavioral aspects because of the vast institutional differences between the farm sectors in the two countries and the possible effect of the institutional setup on exit decisions comparison of exit patterns may enable us to identify the dependence of farmers mobility on the institutional setup this may also have policy relevance in both canada and israel exit probability decreases with the extent of off farm work we conclude that off farm work is complementary rather than a substitute for farm work perhaps due to its less volatile nature both canadian and israeli farmers over a certain age are more likely to exit as they become older which is a natural result but exit probability in canada rises much faster with age than in israel the major difference between canadian and israeli farm exit patterns lies in the farm size farm size decreases exit probability in canada but increases it in israel perhaps this is because israeli farm exits are less planned in advance than canadian exits institutional constraints on land transactions in israel may also play a role

it s the rents stupid the political economy of the resource curse a number of studies suggest that natural resources can have a negative impact on the developing prospects of countries empirical results suggest that political economy models of patronage and rent seeking are central to understanding why such a resource curse arises in other words the resource curse is created by certain resource rents leading to dysfunctional behaviour this article introduces the term impartiality enhancing institutions to structure policy debates by distinguishing conditions under which negative effects of resources can be mitigated moreover it is argued that viewing institutions as an equilibrium outcome has implications for the analysis of institutional change policy initiatives that do not promote the impartiality of institutions nor attend to the underlying interests and incentives keeping a bad institutional equilibrium in place will not help lift the resource curse

the theorems of international trade with factor mobility abstract this paper addresses the relation between goods trade and international factor mobility in general terms the basic theorems of international trade suitably interpreted are shown to hold in their strong versions if the number of international markets for goods and factors is at least as large as the number of factors the crucial dimensionality issue is hence not the relative number of goods and factors per se but the number of international markets relative to the number of factors only the price version of the heckscher ohlin theorem fails to be essentially preserved by this condition

oil and entrepreneurship economic theory predicts that rents produced from natural resources especially oil and gas can increase opportunities for entrepreneurship but they may also reduce engagement in entrepreneurial activities as they change incentives towards rent seeking using global entrepreneurship monitor gem annual surveys this study provides empirical evidence that more per capita profit from oil and gas reduces entrepreneurship only in corrupt environments the more the corruption is the larger is the impact the results have important implications for policy makers especially in resource rich developing countries

trade in goods and trade in tasks an integrating framework abstract we introduce a simple but flexible analytical framework in which both trade in goods and trade in tasks arise we use this framework to provide versions of the gains from trade and the famous four ho theorems heckscher ohlin factor price equalisation stolper samuelson and rybczynski that apply to this environment we extend our framework to accommodate monopolistic competition and two way offshoring and to integrate theoretical results of the early offshoring literature

comparative advantage in uk manufacturing trade 1910 1935 this paper uses a maintained hypothesis of comparative advantage based on relative factor endowments to investigate uk manufacturing trade prior to world war ii the results from several independent tests indicate that britain exported goods intensive in the use of unskilled labour and had a comparative disadvantage in goods intensive in the use of human capital right up to the mid 1930s this is consistent with the views of contemporaries but somewhat at odds with recent optimistic assessments of structural change in pre war britain this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

explaining america s surge in manufactured exports 1880 1913 the united states became a net exporter of manufactured goods around 1910 after a dramatic surge in iron and steel exports began in the mid 1890s this paper argues that natural resource abundance fueled the expansion of iron and steel exports in part by enabling a sharp reduction in the price of u s exports relative to other competitors the commercial exploitation of the mesabi iron ore range for example reduced domestic ore prices by 50 in the mid 1890s and was equivalent to over a decade s worth of industry productivity improvement in its effect on iron and steel export prices the nontradability of american ore resulted in its distinctive impact on the pattern of u s trade the results are consistent with wright s 1990 finding that u s manufactured exports were natural resource intensive at this time

political foundations of the resource curse in this paper we argue that the political incentives that resource endowments generate are the key to understanding whether or not they are a curse we show 1 politicians tend to over extract natural resources relative to the efficient extraction path because they discount the future too much and 2 resource booms improve the efficiency of the extraction path however 3 resource booms by raising the value of being in power and by providing politicians with more resources which they can use to influence the outcome of elections increase resource misallocation in the rest of the economy 4 the overall impact of resource booms on the economy depends critically on institutions since these determine the extent to which political incentives map into policy outcomes countries with institutions that promote accountability and state competence will tend to benefit from resource booms since these institutions ameliorate the perverse political incentives that such booms create countries without such institutions however may suffer from a resource curse

farm size and growth in canada in this paper we empirically examine the relationship between farm size and growth in canada over the period 1966 81 the analysis is undertaken by testing gibrat s law of proportionate effect gibrat offered the hypothesis that the percentage growth rates of firms are independent of their initial size thus growth is a purely stochastic process that arises from the cumulative effect of the random operation of a multitude of forces acting independently of each other an important outcome of models based on gibrat s law is that the stochastic process results in a size distribution of firms which is skewed and not unlike the size distribution actually observed in particular it is well known that depending on the precise formulation the operation of gibrat s law leads to a skewed size distribution which is either log normal prais or pareto steindl ijiri and simon although it is difficult to determine the exact form of observed size distributions it is generally agreed that either of the above provides a reasonable approximation to reality depending on the industry or sector being observed by contrast a deterministic model of firm growth based strictly on standard cost theory either predicts the facts incorrectly or it makes no prediction at all ijiri and simon p 10 although there are models combining cost theory with assumptions about the adjustment process which result in skewed size distributions e g lucas the testing of gibrat s law remains as an important point of departure for the analysis of firm growth an additional feature of models based on

the political resource curse this paper studies the effect of additional government revenues on political corruption and on the quality of politicians both with theory and data the theory is based on a political agency model with career concerns and endogenous entry of candidates the data refer to brazil where federal transfers to municipal governments change exogenously at given population thresholds allowing us to implement a regression discontinuity design the empirical evidence shows that larger transfers increase observed corruption and reduce the average education of candidates for mayor these and other more specific empirical results are in line with the predictions of the theory jel d72 d73 h77 o17 o18

logistic infrastructure and the international location of fragmented production abstract casual evidence suggests that multinational companies increasingly look for places with adequate transport and logistic infrastructure to locate affiliates that participate in cross border production sharing yet there are no systematic empirical analyses examining how logistic infrastructure interacts with the location decisions made by multinationals most studies on the determinants of fdi address the issue of transportation logistics by examining the impact of distance on the relevant outcome but distance does not capture by itself the quality of the logistic systems in place we overcome this shortcoming in the literature by embedding indicators of infrastructure into an empirical framework that examines whether countries with adequate logistic systems attract more vertical fdi and particularly in industries that are more dependent on logistic services we find that logistic infrastructure positively impacts vertical fdi in addition to the impact typically found on distance a change from the first quartile to the third quartile of the distribution of logistic infrastructure is associated with an average increase in the number of vertically integrated subsidiaries equivalent to 29

the resource curse and its potential reversal several recent papers suggest that the negative association between natural resource intensity and economic growth can be reversed if institutional quality is high enough we try to understand this result in more detail by decomposing the resource measure using alternative measures of both resources and institutions and by studying different time periods while an institutional reversal is present in many specifications only ores and metals interacted with the icrg measure of institutional quality consistently have a negative growth effect but a positive interaction that turns the curse around when institutions are good enough

government payments and farm business survival using farm level panel data from recent u s agricultural censuses this study examines how direct government payments influence the survival of farm businesses paying particular attention to the differential effect of payments across farm size categories a cox proportional hazards model is used to estimate the effect of government payments on the instantaneous probability of a farm business failure controlling for farm and operator characteristics results indicate that an increase in government payments has a small but statistically significant negative effect on the rate of business failure and the magnitude of this effect increases with farm size

the origins of american industrial success 1879 1940 the united states became the world s preeminent manufacturing nation at the turn of the twentieth century this study considers the bases for this success by examining the factor content of trade in manufactured goods surprisingly the most distinctive characteristic of u s manufacturing exports was intensity in nonreproducible natural resources furthermnore this relative intensity was increasing between 1880 and 1920 the study then asks whether resource abundance reflected geological endowment or greater exploitation of geological potential it was mainly the latter jel 042 recent thinking about american economic performance has been marked by alarm over the country s loss of its competitive edge most of this discussion is not rooted in an understanding of the historical origins of the economic leadership now thought to be in jeopardy modern economists tend to assume that the american advantage has been technological and

natural resources democracy and corruption we study how natural resources can feed corruption and how this effect depends on the quality of the democratic institutions our game theoretic model predicts that resource rents lead to an increase in corruption if the quality of the democratic institutions is relatively poor but not otherwise we use panel data covering the period 1980 to 2004 and 124 countries to test this theoretical prediction our estimates confirm that the relationship between resource rents and corruption depends on the quality of the democratic institutions our main results hold when we control for the effects of income time varying common shocks regional fixed effects and various additional covariates they are also robust across different samples and to the use of various alternative measures of natural resources democracy and corruption

a century of missing trade in contemporary data the measured factor content of trade is far smaller than its predicted magnitude in the pure heckscher ohlin vanek framework the so called missing trade mystery authors wonder if this problem has been there from the beginning that is authors ask if the heckscher ohlin theory was so much at odds with reality at its time of conception authors apply contemporary tests to historical data focusing on the major trading zone that inspired the factor abundance theory the old and new worlds of the pre 1914 greater atlantic economy this places autor s analysis in a very different context than contemporary studies an era with lower trade barriers higher transport costs a more skewed global distribution of the relevant factors especially land and comparably large productivity divergence these conditions might seem more favorable to the theory but the results are still very poor

does oil corrupt evidence from a natural experiment in west africa abstract this paper explores the oil discovery announcements in sao tome and principe 1997 1999 to assess the role of natural resources in determining corruption for this purpose we use a natural experiment framework which contrasts sao tome and principe to cape verde a control west african country sharing the same colonial past and important recent economic and political shocks our measurement is based on tailored household surveys we conducted in both island countries the unique survey instrument was retrospective and used personal histories to elicit memories from the respondents we analyze changes in perceived corruption across a wide range of public services and allocations we find clearest increases on vote buying education namely in the allocation of scholarships and customs ranging from 31 to 40 of the subjective scale we interpret these findings as symptoms of increased competition for core state resources