interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels most advanced economies have experienced a striking decline in the volatility of aggregate economic activity since the early 1980s volatility reductions are evident for output and employment at the aggregate level and across most industrial sectors and expenditure categories inflation and inflation volatility have also declined dramatically previous studies offer several potential explanations for this great moderation we review evidence on the great moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level we combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline and its consequences the key ingredients are declines in firm level volatility and aggregate volatility most dramatically in the durable goods sector surprisingly this has occurred without a decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply chain management particularly in the durable goods sector and less important a shift in production and employment from goods to services we provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm level and aggregate volatility consistent with this view if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s much of the moderation reflects a decline in high frequency short term fluctuations while these developments represent efficiency gains they do not imply nor is there evidence for a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households

regulation and efficiency in transition the case of telecommunications in italy abstract in regulating the telecommunications industry the separation between network and retail functions which is designed to countervail the market power of incumbent operators is a relevant issue despite its importance little empirical research has addressed the effects of such a separation accordingly this paper provides insights into the consequences of the italian communications regulatory authority s agcom decision to impose this type of separation on the incumbent telecommunications operator telecom italia in particular the studied separation is between the firm s network related functions and those used for provision of its communication services the present research finds that the type of separation implemented by agcom allows a provider to maintain the advantages of operational scale in its network structure without dampening competition in the existing market for communications services the study also offers further empirical evidence on the advantages of a composite vs translog function in analyzing the multiproduct cost structure of a telecommunications operator

the role of investment specific technological change in the business cycle this is a quantitative investigation of the importance of technological change speci c to new investment goods for postwar us aggregate uctuations a growth model that incorporates this form of technological change is calibrated to us data and simulated using the relative price of new equipment to identify the process driving investmentspeci c technology shocks the analysis suggests that this form of technological change is the source of about 30 of output uctuations 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

regulatory measurement and evaluation of telephone service quality regulators of utilities that operate as local monopolies would like to set prices or allow rates of return based upon the quality of a utility s service however quality is highly multidimensional traditionally regulators have collected measures of quality on many separate dimensions and compared performance on these dimensions to explicit pass fail standards they have lacked a method of combining complex patterns of substandard and superstandard performance on these many dimensions to arrive at an overall evaluation of the quality of service to redress this problem we first describe the information processing problems regulators encounter when they attempt to integrate this complex array of information intuitively and the problems that arise when the link between service quality as reflected in patterns of passed and failed standards and regulatory incentives is not made explicit to utility management we develop a bootstrapped method for formalizing each expert regulator s evaluation policy us

inventory behavior with permanent sales shocks abstract empirically adf tests fail to reject the null hypothesis that sales are i 1 we build a model of inventory behavior that incorporates permanent sales shocks analytically the model with i 1 sales implies that the variance ratio of log production to log sales is one in the long run regardless of the strength of production smoothing stockout avoidance or cost shocks but that at business cycle horizons the conditional variance ratio conditional on past production and sales is greater than one we explain analytically using our model and intuitively four traditional inventory puzzles and three puzzles about inventories and monetary policy

declining volatility in the u s automobile industry dramatic changes in the volatility of output occurred in the u s auto industry in the early 1980s namely output volatility declined the covariance of inventory investment and sales grew more negative and adjustments to production schedules which in earlier decades stemmed primarily from plants hiring and laying off workers were more often accomplished with changes in average hours per worker after the mid 1980s using a linear quadratic inventory model with intensive and extensive labor adjustments we show how all of these changes could have stemmed from one underlying factor a decline in the persistence of motor vehicle sales jel g31 l25 l62 m11

inventories stock outs and production smoothing if stock outs are ignored and if demand shocks are additive then optimal behaviour requires that the marginal cost of production mc be equated with the expected marginal revenue of increasing expected sales by one unit emr however with more general demand shocks and still ignoring stock outs the excess of mc over emr has the same sign as the covariance of the slope of the demand curve and the marginal valuation of inventory the equality of emr and mc is also broken by taking account of stock outs even if demand shocks are additive if there is a production lag then taking account of stock outs implies that optimal behaviour will be characterized by production smoothing even if the cost of production is linear two alternative definitions of production smoothing are presented and optimal behaviour in the presence of stock outs displays each type of smoothing it is a well known proposition that a firm producing a storable good under conditions of increasing marginal cost will tend to smooth the time profile of its production relative to the time profile of its sales the incentive to smooth production arises from the fact that the cost function is a convex function of the level of production for a given average level of production average costs can be reduced by reducing the variation in production of course if the cost function is linear in the level of production then this incentive to smooth production disappears however we will demonstrate in this paper that if the possibility of stock outs is explicitly incorporated into the firm s dynamic optimization problem i e if we impose a non negativity constraint on inventories and if there is a lag in production then optimal behaviour can be characterized by production smoothing even if the cost function is linear

markups aggregation and inventory adjustment in this paper i suggest a unified explanation for two puzzles in the inventory literature first estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in aggregate data are very small relative to the apparent rapid reaction of stocks to unanticipated variations in sales second estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in firm level data are significantly higher than in aggregate data the paper develops a multisector model where inventories are held to avoid stockouts and price markups vary along the business cycle the omission of countercyclical markup variations from inventory targets introduces a downward bias in estimates of adjustment speeds obtained from partial adjustment models when the cyclicality of markups differs across sectors this downward bias is shown to be more severe with aggregate rather than firm level data similar results apply not only to inventories but also to labor and prices montercarlo simulations of a calibrated version of the model suggest that these biases are quantitatively significant

some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis in management contexts mathematical programming is usually used to evaluate a collection of possible alternative courses of action en route to selecting one which is best in this capacity mathematical programming serves as a planning aid to management data envelopment analysis reverses this role and employs mathematical programming to obtain ex post facto evaluations of the relative efficiency of management accomplishments however they may have been planned or executed mathematical programming is thereby extended for use as a tool for control and evaluation of past accomplishments as well as a tool to aid in planning future activities the ccr ratio form introduced by charnes cooper and rhodes as part of their data envelopment analysis approach comprehends both technical and scale inefficiencies via the optimal value of the ratio form as obtained directly from the data without requiring a priori specification of weights and or explicit delineation of assumed functional forms of relations between inputs and outputs a separation into technical and scale efficiencies is accomplished by the methods developed in this paper without altering the latter conditions for use of dea directly on observational data technical inefficiencies are identified with failures to achieve best possible output levels and or usage of excessive amounts of inputs methods for identifying and correcting the magnitudes of these inefficiencies as supplied in prior work are illustrated in the present paper a new separate variable is introduced which makes it possible to determine whether operations were conducted in regions of increasing constant or decreasing returns to scale in multiple input and multiple output situations the results are discussed and related not only to classical single output economics but also to more modern versions of economics which are identified with contestable market theories

understanding the inventory cycle abstract careful examination of aggregate data from the u s and other oecd countries reveals that production and inventory behavior exhibit paradoxical features 1 inventory investment is strongly countercyclical at very high frequencies e g 2 3 quarters per cycle it is procyclical only at relatively low cyclical frequencies such as the business cycle frequencies e g 8 40 quarters per cycle 2 production is less volatile than sales around the high frequencies it is more volatile than sales only around business cycle or lower frequencies 3 unlike capital investment or gdp the bulk of the variance of inventory investment is concentrated around high frequencies rather than around business cycle frequencies these features of production and inventory behavior at the low and high frequencies provide a litmus test for inventory theories this paper shows that the stockout avoidance theory kahn j 1987 inventories and the volatility of production american economic review 77 667 679 has much better potential than other competing theories for explaining the seemingly paradoxical features of inventory fluctuations observed at different cyclical frequencies my analysis suggests that demand shocks are the main source of the business cycle

x efficiency in emerging competitive markets the case of u s telecommunications abstract whether or not the progressive introduction of competition in the u s telecommunications industry has induced firm level efficiencies is studied in this paper two sets of performance measures are computed for local operating companies using data envelopment analysis for the years 1973 1978 1981 1984 and 1987 the first set measures whether firms are able to augment output values the second set measures whether firms conserve resources or inputs both sets of measures improve between 1973 and 1987 the output value augmentation measures initially rise steeply and then plateau while the input conservation measures rise more steadily these indicate that firms have benefited from incumbency positions in early exploitation of opening markets but increasing pressures have induced firms to continuously strive towards frugality in resource consumption

forming priors for dsge models and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities abstract we discuss prior elicitation for the parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models and provide a method for constructing prior distributions for a subset of these parameters from beliefs about steady state relationships and second moments of the endogenous variables the empirical application documents how the specification of the prior distribution affects our assessment of the relative importance of price and wage rigidities in a new keynesian dsge model

input and output inventories abstract this paper presents a new stage of fabrication inventory model with delivery usage and stocks of input materials that distinguishes between gross production and value added it extends the linear quadratic model of output inventories by adding the joint determination of input inventories empirically input inventories are more important than output inventories maximum likelihood estimation of the decision rules yields correctly signed and significant parameter estimates using data for nondurable and durable goods industries but the overidentifying restrictions of the model are rejected the value added specification dominates because adjustment costs on materials usage are critical to fitting the data

behavioral rationality in finance the case of dividends as the title suggests this paper attempts to get to the specifics of the behavioral rationality theme of this conference by focusing on an area in the main core of finance namely the demand and supply of dividends where by common consent the essentially rationalist paradigm of the field seems to be limping most noticeably important and pervasive behavior patterns on both the paying and the receiving ends have despairingly been written off as puzzles even by theorists as redoubtable as fischer black see esp his much cited 1976 article behaviorists have homed in on precisely these same dividendrelated soft spots in the current body of theory see esp shefrin and statman 1984 we seem to have in sum an ideal place to look for signs of an imminent paradigm shift in the behavioral direction of precisely the kind envisioned by some of the other contributors to this conference the dividend related difficulties and supposed anomalies at issue here are more than just the parochial concern of finance specialists the dividends seem a natural area in finance where the introduction of behavioral cognitive elements might help resolve long standing anomalies particularly the seeming failure of supply to adjust to taxinduced price penalties a closer look at the empirical record however particularly at evidence of responsiveness to major structural changes shows behavior of the aggregates to be less anomalous than conventional handwringing might suggest behavioral cognitive elements whatever they might contribute to the description of particular microdecisions do not appear to be essential adjuncts to the basic finance model in the major comparative static applications for which it was intended helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper have been received from nai fu chen jean marie gagnon gur huberman kose john james poterba and especially melvin reder

taking stock a critical assessment of recent research on inventories empirical and theoretical aspects of inventory behavior became hot topics in the 1950s and early 1960s no one seemed to notice the tension that was developing between the emerging macroeconomic and microeconomic views of inventories macroeconomists routinely thought of inventories as a destabilizing factor yet the prevailing micro theory viewed inventories as a stabilizing factor it was a fascinating question that was barely explored instead somewhat inexplicably interest in inventories dried up as if inventories were of minor economic significance and little intrinsic interest by the early 1980s then economists once again knew something they had known in the 1950s that inventory investment is of first order importance in business cycles but they were also beginning to realize that the standard production smoothing buffer stock model of inventories was in deep trouble this paper focuses on developments since that realization

s s inventory policies in general equilibrium we study the aggregate implications of s s inventory policies in a dynamic general equilibrium model with aggregate uncertainty firms in the model s retail sector face idiosyncratic demand risk and s s inventory policies are optimal because of fixed order costs the distribution of inventory holdings affects the aggregate outcome in two ways variation in the decision to order and variation in the rate of sale through the pricing decisions of retailers we find that both mechanisms must operate to reconcile observations that orders are more volatile than and inventory investment is positively correlated with sales while remaining consistent with other salient business cycle characteristics the model exhibits strong amplification for some shocks and persistence to a limited extent

non stationary hours in a dsge model the time series fit of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models often suffers from restrictions on the long run dynamics that are at odds with the data using bayesian methods we estimate a stochastic growth model in which hours worked are stationary and a modified version with permanent labor supply shocks if firms can freely adjust labor inputs the data support the latter specification once we introduce frictions in terms of labor adjustment costs the overall time series fit improves and the model specification in which labor supply shocks and hours worked are stationary is preferred

interrelated demands for buffer stocks and productive inputs estimates for two digit manufacturing industries empirical estimates of interrelated factor demand equations for inventories labor inputs capital stocks and unfilled orders in selected two digit industries are provided this framework is more comprehensive than previous research as it disaggregates inventories by stage of fabrication accounts for production to stock and production to order and disaggregates capital and labor inputs all estimated decision rules display stock adjustment effects but there are asymmetries in the parameter estimates that are puzzling there is evidence that factor input prices have a role in explaining stock levels but own factor price effects are largely absent evidence is uncovered that stocks are sensitive to expectations errors attached to output demand copyright 1990 by mit press

the role of ethics in finance the role of ethics in the financial community today seems to be limited to its role in financial economic theory contemporary financial economists view ethics in the context of objective wealth maximization in this context ethics functions primarily as a constraint on behavior this view is both illogical and ambiguous it is illogical because it may actually sanction unethical behavior if such behavior can be shown to lead to material gain it is ambiguous because throughout he 2000 year history of moral philosophy ethics has generally been viewed as a behavioral motivation not as a constraint if a conception of ethics as the fundamental objective in all human endeavor is disseminated in the financial community there is real hope that ethics will be accepted as both logically consistent and desirable

the production and inventory behavior of the american automobile industry understanding inventory movements is central to an understanding of business cycles this paper presents an empirical study of the behavior of inventories in the automobile industry it finds that inventory behavior is well explained by the assumption of intertemporal optimization with rational expectations the underlying cost structure appears to have substantial costs of changing production as well as substantial costs of being away from target inventory thelatter being a function of current sales given this cost structure whether inventory behavior is stabilizing or destabilizing depends on the characteristics of the demand process in the automobile industry inventory behavior is destabilizing the variance of production is larger than the variance of sales

business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour new evidence for the euro area abstract the purpose of this paper is for the first time to use business tendency survey data first to identify new facts that are useful for the interpretation of the decline in the volatility of real activity in the euro area and second to test the inventory management hypothesis as an explanation for the great moderation in europe we present stylized facts from the business tendency data on series for inventories current production current orders and expected production for the euro area emphasizing the decline in the volatility of the series further we investigate whether the decline in inventory volatility can be attributed to an endogenous change in the persistence of shocks to the accumulation dynamics of inventories or to an exogenous change in the shocks hitting the inventory optimisation process our results at euro level generally indicate that there is no evidence of a break in the inventory accumulation process on the contrary the impact of exogenous shocks on inventory volatility appears to be steadily declining over time beginning from the mid 1980s

price cap regulation incentives and quality the case of brazilian telecommunications abstract this paper reviews the incentive properties of yardstick schemes with special reference to quality performance and to the economic foundations and practical applications of data envelopment analysis dea the core of the paper is related to the construction of synthetic relative efficiency scores for quality which were obtained for brazilian local telephony over the period 1998 2002 the telecommunications industry in brazil has been characterized by the recent implementation of price cap regulation the evidence indicates substantial quality underperformance with some improvements towards the end of the period the efficiency scores obtained based on the flexible dea approach suggest that adjustment factors should be used in the productivity offset of the price cap rule so as to provide premiums for superior quality performance in terms of lower x factors the dea based yardstick procedure can provide a practical alternative to monitoring a series of specific quality indicators in terms of a set of penalties for underperformance the composite quality indicators do not rule out the identification of optimal adjustments recommended for individual indicators

production chains and general equilibrium aggregate dynamics abstract recent empirical studies reveal that monetary shocks can cause persistent fluctuations in aggregate output in this paper we propose a mechanism to help generate such persistence our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a vertical input output structure with staggered price contracts at each stage of production working through the input output relations and the timing of firms pricing decisions the model generates persistent fluctuations in aggregate output and the observed patterns of price dynamics following a monetary shock output responses are more persistent the greater the number of stages of production and the larger the share of intermediate inputs with a sufficient number of stages the persistence is arbitrarily large if the share of intermediate inputs is one at all but finitely many stages

estimating most productive scale size using data envelopment analysis abstract the relation between the most productive scale size mpss for paparticular input and output mixes and returns to scale for multiple inputs multiple outputs situations is explicitly developed this relation is then employed to extend the applications of data envelopment analysis dea introduced by charnes cooper and rhodes ccr to the estimation of most productive scale sizes for convex production possibility sets it is then shown that in addition to productive inefficiencies at the actual scale size the ccr efficiency measure also reflects any inefficiencies due to divergence from the most productive scale size two illustrations of the practical applications of these results to the estimation of most productive scale sizes and returns to scale for hospitals and stem electric generation plants are also provided emphasize the advantage of this method in examining specific segments of the efficient production surface

technology shocks in the new keynesian model in the new keynesian model preference cost push and monetary shocks all compete with the real business cycle model s technology shock in driving aggregate fluctuations a version of this model estimated via maximum likelihood points to these other shocks as being more important for explaining the behavior of output inflation and interest rates in the postwar u s data these results weaken the links between the current generation of new keynesian models and the real business cycle models from which they were originally derived they also suggest that federal reserve officials have often faced difficult trade offs in conducting monetary policy

theory measurement and calibration of macroeconomic models abstract calibration has become a standard tool of macroeconomics this paper extends and refines the calibration methodology along several important dimensions first accounting for home production is important both in measuring calibration targets and in organizing the data in a model consistent fashion for this reason thinking about home production is important even if the model under consideration does not include home production second investment specific technological change is included because of its strong balanced growth parameter restrictions third the measurement strategy is laid out as transparently as possible so that others can easily replicate the underlying calculations the data and calculations used in this paper are available at http clevelandfed org research models rbc index cfm

inventories as factors of production and economic fluctuations this paper presents a theory of inventory investment by stage of processing and uses it to examine the role of inventory investment in economic fluctuations the model in which inventories are treated as factors of production is estimated for four durable goods industries three conclusions emerge from the estimation first the estimates generally satisfy the theoretical restrictions second the elasticity of inventory demand with respect to output is high indicating an important accelerator effect finally the estimates suggest that shifts in the demand for inventories are an important source of economic fluctuations copyright 1989 by american economic association

inventories sticky prices and the persistence of output and inflation post war business cycle fluctuations of output and inflation are remarkably persistent many recent sticky price models however grossly underpredict this persistence we assess whether adding inventories to a standard sticky price model raises the persistence of output and inflation for this addition we consider a shopping cost model in the model consumers find shopping activities costly and the cost of shopping depends on the stock of goods available in this context producers manage inventories to smooth production and to affect the cost of shopping we find that the shopping cost model generates a persistence for output and inflation that matches the persistence observed in the post 1985 us data

inventory investment and output volatility abstract this paper reports the results of a detailed examination of the hypothesis that improved inventory management and production techniques are responsible for the decline in the volatility of u s gdp growth our innovations are to look at the data at a finer level of disaggregation than previous studies to exploit cross sectional heterogeneity to obtain clearer identification of this hypothesis and to provide a complete decomposition of the change in gdp volatility at the aggregate level changes in inventory behavior can account directly for almost half of the total reduction in gdp volatility however reduced volatility of sales and lower covariance among the output of major sectors in the economy each account for more than one fourth of the reduction in gdp volatility improved inventory management appears to be associated loosely with lower volatility at the industry level

on the employment effects of productivity shocks the role of inventories demand elasticity and sticky prices abstract whether technological progress raises or lowers employment in the short run has been the subject of much debate in the recent years we show that cross industry differences in inventory holding costs demand elasticities and price rigidities potentially all affect employment decisions in the face of productivity shocks in particular the employment response to a permanent productivity shock is more likely to be positive the less costly it is to hold inventories the more elastic industry demand is and the more flexible prices are using data on 458 4 digit u s manufacturing industries over the period 1958 1996 we find statistically significant effects of variations in inventory holdings and demand elasticities on short run employment responses but less conclusive evidence pertaining to the effects of measured price stickiness

a comparative application of data envelopment analysis and translog methods an illustrative study of hospital production this paper compares inferences about hospital cost and production correspondences from two different estimation models 1 the econometric modeling of the translog cost function and 2 the application of data envelopment analysis dea while there are numerous examples of the application of each approach to empirical data this paper provides insights into the relative strengths of the estimation methods by applying both models to the same data the translog results suggest that constant reruns are operant whereas the dea results suggest that both increasing and decreasing returns to scale may be observed in different segments of the production correspondence in turn suggesting that the translog model may be averaging diametrically opposite behavior on the other hand by examining the rate of output transformation both models agree that patient days devoted to care of children are more resource intensive than those devoted to adults or to the elderly in addition we compare estimates of technical efficiencies of individual hospitals obtained from the two methods the dea estimates are found to be highly related to the capacity utilization but no such relationship was found for the translog estimates this comparative application of different estimation models to the same data to obtain inferences about the nature of underlying cost and production correspondences sheds interesting light on the strengths of each approach and suggests the need for additional research comparing estimation models using real as well as simulated data

inventories markups and real rigidities in menu cost models a growing consensus in new keynesian macroeconomics is that nominal cost rigidities rather than countercyclical markups account for the bulk of the real effects of monetary policy shocks we revisit these conclusions using theory and data on inventories we study an economy with nominal rigidities in which goods are storable our theory predicts that if costs of production are sticky and markups do not vary much in response to say expansionary monetary policy firms react by excessively accumulating inventories in anticipation of future cost increases in contrast if the data inventories are fairly constant over the cycle and in response to changes in monetary policy we show that costs must increase and markups must decline sufficiently in times of a monetary expansion in order to reduce firm s incentive to hold inventories and thus bring the model s inventory predictions in line with the data versions of the model consistent with the dynamics of inventories in the data imply that countercyclical markups account for a sizable fraction of the response of real variables to monetary shocks

rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods abstract this paper formulates and estimates a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment of labor the view that the primary role of inventories of finished goods is to act as a buffer stock in the face of fluctuating demand is examined both the model and estimation results indicate that this is the case because of differences in the costs involved for firms in changing their inventory stocks and labor force in addition to providing some new evidence on the behavior of inventories of finished goods and employment the paper illustrates a technology for maximum likelihood estimation of structural parameters under the hypothesis of rational expectations

inventories and sticky prices note in a recent contribution to this review alan blinder provides an interesting analysis of the relationship between optimal inventory decisions and the process of price adjustment arguing that inventory permits separation of production and sale decisions and allows the firm greater flexibility in responding to anticipated demand disturbances blinder shows that the responsiveness of relative prices depends critically upon the cost of storage and the temporal structure of the demand shocks few economists would fault the intuitive substance of blinder s basic proposition and the proposition is justified with characteristic precision the analysis however is considerably less general than blinder maintains the formal argument of his paper relies upon a simple model of a monopolist capable of backlogging orders and storing unsold goods as the model is constructed order backlogs assume a role of fundamental importance in any stationary equilibrium this feature of the model vitiates blinder s extension of his result to situations in which order backlogs are prohibited the basic monopoly model developed in sections i and ii of blinder s paper places no restriction upon the sign of inventory negative inventory is interpreted as net unfilled orders while no distinction is drawn between reductions in gross inventory and additions to the order backlog as a result the cost of holding inventory is symmetric around an arbitrary minimum point the only role of inventory is to permit the time paths of production and sales to differ gross inventory allows production to antedate sales while order backlogs generate revenue before production costs are borne under these circumstances if future costs and revenues are discounted it is natural to expect any stationary equilibrium level of net inventory to be negative this can be shown to be true of blinder s model it is useful to distinguish in general between the nonstochastic stationary level of inventory n and the stochastic stationary level n the former is realized when the current expected demand disturbance eo is zero and production equals sales the latter which differs from customary usage represents the level of inventory expected to prevail when adjustment to the current nonzero expected demand disturbance is complete if the demand disturbance is not a random walk so that p 1 in blinder s 5 the two equilibria coincide relatively little attention is devoted to either stationary solution because blinder s main interest is in the optimal current solution level n1 the stochastic stationary level is crucially important however since it represents the goal toward which the current choice must provide an optimal first step to verify that both nand n are negative whenever production is strictly positive note that blinder s necessary condition 7 with the coefficient cl set equal to zero together with the definition of xa as the deviation of the shadow value of inventory q from its nonstochastic stationary value q implies

a theory of yardstick competition in the typical regulatory scheme a franchised monopoly has little incentive to reduce costs this article proposes a mechanism in which the price the regulatedfirm receives depends on the costs of identical firms in equilibrium each firm chooses a socially efficient level of cost reduction the mechanism generalizes to cover heterogeneous firms with observable differences medicare s prospective reimbursement of hospitals by using diagnostically related groups is a scheme very similar to the one outlined here

the time varying volatility of macroeconomic fluctuations we investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of us mac roeconomic variables in the postwar period to this end we propose the esti mation of dsge models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations we apply our estimation strategy to a large scale model of the business cycle and find that shocks specific to the equilibrium condition of investment account for most of the sharp decline in volatility of the last two decades jel c51 e32

inventories and the business cycle an equilibrium analysis of s s policies we develop an equilibrium business cycle model where nonconvex delivery costs lead firms to follow s s inventory policies calibrated to postwar us data the model reproduces two thirds of the cyclical variability of inventory investment moreover it delivers strongly procyclical inventory investment greater volatility in production than sales and a countercyclical inventory to sales ratio our model challenges several prominent claims involving inventories including the widely held belief that they amplify aggregate fluctuations despite the comovement between inventory investment and final sales gdp volatility is essentially unaltered by inventory accumulation because procyclical inventory investment diverts resources from final production thereby dampening fluctuations in sales

productivity change and its determinants among leading mobile operators in europe the european mobile telecommunications industry has seen increased competition and market saturation in recent years so improving productivity will become crucially important for mobile operators in the near future this study adopts a bootstrap malmquist index approach to estimate productivity change among a sample of 23 of europe s leading mobile operators over the 2008 to 2009 period using a second stage regression this article also analyses the determinants of productivity changes in terms of regulation competition and ownership structure the results show that mobile companies operating in countries that have recently joined the eu have a positive association with productivity change in contrast to their counterparts in south east europe concerning market competition the leading mobile operators that experience higher productivity changes operate in more concentrated markets the results also indicate that international mobile operators perform better in terms of productivity change than their

inventories and the volatility of production a stylized fact associated with inventory behavior is that the variance of production exceeds the variance of sales this paper presents a model of production decisions with demand uncertainty that incorporates no nnegativity constraints on inventories even with no productivity shocks optimal behavior by the firm is consistent with this stylized fact either if demand exhibits positive serial correlation or if the firm can backlog excess demand the reason is that a demand shock affects both the actual inventory level given unchanged production and the desired level production must replenish the stock and adjust to the new desired level copyright 1987 by american economic association

ethics in finance ii the best way to approach professional ethics whether in the finance profession or elsewhere is from the perspective of virtue ethics theory this theory places particular emphasis on the character and motivations of an individual professional and on the organizational community in which the individual acts this article extends and clarifies the central argument of an earlier article on financial ethics several real world examples illustrate the role of virtue ethics in professionalism

beyond balanced growth balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well known kaldor facts regarding economic growth these models however are inconsistent with one of the most striking regularities of the growth process the massive reallocation of labour from agriculture into manufacturing and services this paper presents a simple model consistent with both the kaldor facts and the dynamics of sectoral labour reallocation

linear rational expectations equilibrium laws of motion for selected u s raw material imports in this paper the authors develop and estimate time series models of the rational expectations equilibrium laws of m otion for several u s commodity imports bauxite cocoa coffee and petroleum the theoretical model is based upon the optimizing behavi or of firms that import in the presence of supply shocks delivery la gs and adjustment and inventory holding costs one of the important features of the empirical model is that the authors are able to estim ate elasticities that distinguish between responses to changes in the environment that importers expect to be relatively temporary versus relatively permanent copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

integrating the regulatory and utility firm perspectives when measuring the efficiency of electricity distribution abstract several dea applications for benchmarking in utility regulation use classical models which reveal inconsistencies due to pareto inefficient targets the natural course of action would be to incorporate weight restrictions reflecting value judgments and requiring interaction between analyst and decision maker we show that weight restricted dea models still present some inconsistencies since it is not possible to ensure that the target both dominates the observed dmu and lies on the empirical production frontier besides the decision maker and analyst interaction it is necessary to consider a further distinction between the two parties the regulatory agency and the utility company which adopt different criteria to determine the efficient target a model to obtain a preferred target dea index is formulated taking advantage of the dual based dea graphical analysis thus we propose a two phase dea analysis that can integrate both perspectives a case study about the brazilian electricity sector is included which illustrates the above mentioned issues

can the production smoothing model of inventory behavior be saved the production smoothing model of inventory behavior has a long and venerable history and theoretical foundations that seem very strong yet certain overwhelming facts seem not only to defy explanation within the production smoothing framework but actually to argue that the basic idea of production smoothing is all wrong most prominent among these is the fact that the variance of detrended production exceeds the variance of detrended sales this paper first documents the stylized facts then it derives the production smoothing model rigorously and explains how the model can be amended to make it consistent with the facts finally it reviews the theoretical and empirical evidence and tries to draw some tentative conclusions

trend breaks in us inventory to sales ratios abstract this paper documents econometrically that us inventory to sales ratios have time trends and that there have been significant breaks in these time trends at both the aggregate and industry level using techniques developed by bai rev econ stat 1997 551 and by bai and perron econometrica 66 1 1998 47 we simultaneously estimate the time trend parameters and the dates of statistically significant breaks in those trends using data from 1967 through 2001 it is estimated that aggregate manufacturing and trade inventory to sales ratio trended upwards at a 0 76 year rate before 1985 q3 and has trended downwards at a 1 29 year rate since then downtrends are estimated to have begun in manufacturing ratios in 1983 wholesalers in 1985 and retailers in 1990 before the mid 1990s nearly all the reductions in ratios occurred in industries carrying durable goods examination of the timing and possible explanations of trend breaks for the 20 two digit manufacturing industries suggests that breaks are much more likely to have occurred in recessions and may be related to changes in the variance of the industry s sales growth rate

service quality in brazilian mobile telephony an efficiency frontier analysis the mobile telephony sector is characterized by the dynamic interplay of rapid changes in technology and an apparently growing competition as indicated by the fierce nonprice competition and is yet associated with the entry of new operating companies in some cases in this context a relevant and neglected issue is the assessment of how service quality responded to an increasingly competitive environment this study utilizes data envelopment analysis to assess the quality efficiency of mobile telephony companies in brazil during the 2000 2003 period window analysis was conducted for the entire period taking as reference different quality indicators pertaining to different forms of complaints and calls completed and interrupted the efficiency measurement was made feasible by interpreting the indicators reflecting a positive dimension of quality as outputs and those reflecting negative aspects of quality as inputs given potential heterogeneities across firms that relate to the frequency band and to th

conflicts of interest in financial intermediation the last years have seen a surge of scandals in financial intermediation this article argues that the agency structure inherent to most forms of financial intermediation gives rise to conflicts of interest though this does not excuse scandalous behavior it points out market imperfections there are four types of conflicts of interest personal individual personal organizational impersonal individual and finally impersonal organizational conflicts analyzing recent scandals we find that all four types of conflicts of interest prevail in financial intermediation

why do real and nominal inventory sales ratios have different trends this note explains the diverging trends between real and nominal aggregate inventory sales ratios the combined effect of two features of the data explains the divergence first while aggregate sales include both goods and services inventories include only goods second there has been a strong secular decrease in the relative price of goods the combination of these two factors causes the real and nominal aggregate inventory sales ratios to have different trends

relative efficiency measurement and prospects for yardstick competition in brazilian electricity distribution abstract the paper considers the non parametric methodology of data envelopment analysis dea in the context of efficiency measurement for brazilian electricity distribution in 1997 98 indicating the existence of firms operating substantially below the efficiency frontier the potential and difficulties associated with the implementation of yardstick competition schemes are then discussed stressing in particular the role of relative efficiency scores obtained from the dea approach

intersectoral labor mobility and the growth of the service sector one of the most striking changes in the u s economy over the past 50 years has been the growth in the service sector between 1950 and 2000 service sector employment grew from 57 to 75 percent of total employment however over this time the real hourly wage in the service sector grew only slightly faster than in the goods sector in this paper we assess whether or not the essential constancy of the relative wage implies that individuals face small costs of switching sectors and we quantify the relative importance of labor supply and demand factors in the growth of the service sector we specify and estimate a two sector labor market equilibrium model that allows us to address these empirical issues in a unified framework our estimates imply that there are large mobility costs output in both sectors would have been double their current levels if these mobility costs had been zero in addition we find that demand side factors that is technological change and movements in product and capital prices were responsible for the growth of the service sector

the decline in u s output volatility explanations for the decline in u s output volatility since the mid 1980s include better policy good luck and technological change our multiple break estimates suggest that reductions in volatility since the mid 1980s extend not only to manufacturing inventories but also to sales this finding along with a concentration of the reduction in the volatility of inventories in materials and supplies and the lack of a significant break in the inventory sales covariance imply that new inventory technology cannot account for most of the decline in output volatility

long run implications of investment specific technological change an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional hicksneutral form of technological progress the balanced growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to u s national income and product account nipa data the quantitative analysis suggests that investment specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth jel e13 030 041 047

the comparative productivity efficiency for global telecoms abstract this paper reconciles diverse efficiency measures to characterize the productivity efficiency of 39 forbes 2000 ranked leading global telecom operators productivity efficiency ratings should be considered as a key element for achieving greater business performance and better market position this study applies the data envelopment analysis dea approach with the classical radial measure a p efficiency measure and efficiency achievement measure respectively combining multiple outputs and inputs to measure the magnitude of performance differences between leading telecom carriers empirical results indicate that top ranked forbes telecom operators are not the same as those having top ranked ccr efficiency measures the results show that about 20 5 of forbes 2000 telecom operators are operating on the best practice frontier for ccr efficiency measure while only 7 7 match the efficiency achievement measure criteria this study also shows that asia pacific telecom operators have better productivity efficiency than those in europe and america but the differences are not significant another interesting find is that the state owned telcos as a group show a relatively higher scoring than the privatized telcos as a group because they maintain full service fixed line mobile and internet operations as compared to maintaining fixed only or mobile only operations except china but the differences are not significant it has been concluded that competition in the global telecom market will continue to be tied to the enhanced productivity efficiency

priors from general equilibrium models for vars abstract this paper uses a simple new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as a prior for a vector autoregression shows that the resulting model is competitive with standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting and can be used for policy analysis jel classification c11 c32 c53 key words bayesian analysis dsge models forecasting vector autoregressions 1 introduction dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models are popular nowadays in macroeconomics they are taught in virtually every economics ph d program and represent a predominant share of publications in the field yet when it comes to policy making these models are scarcely used at least from a quantitative point of view the main quantitative workhorse for policy making at the federal reserve system is frb us a macro econometric model built in the cowles foundation tradition a style of macroeconomics that is no longer taught in many ph d programs 1 in their decision process fed policy makers rely heavily on forecasting they want to know the expected path of inflation in the next few quarters and by how much a 50 basis point increase in the federal funds rate would affect that path frb us offers answers to these questions answers that many macroeconomists would regard with suspicion given both the lucas 1976 critique and the fact that in general the restrictions imposed by cowles foundation models are at odds with dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomics sims 1980 general equilibrium models on the other hand have a hard time providing alternative answers the fact that these models are perceived to do badly in terms of forecasting as they are scarcely parameterized is perhaps one of the reasons why they are not at the forefront of policy making while progress is being made in the development of dsge models that deliver acceptable forecasts e g smets and wouters 2003 this paper proposes an approach that combines a stylized general equilibrium model with a vector autoregression var to obtain a specification that both forecasts well and is usable for policy analysis specifically the approach involves using prior information coming from a dsge model in the estimation of a vector autoregression loosely speaking this prior can be thought of as the result of the following exercise i simulate time series data from the dsge model ii fit a var to these data in practice we replace the sample moments of the simulated data by population moments computed from the dsge model solution since the dsge model depends on unknown structural parameters we use a hierarchical prior in our analysis by placing a distribution on the dsge model parameters a tightness parameter controls the weight of the dsge model prior relative to the weight of the actual sample markov chain monte carlo methods are used to generate draws from the joint posterior distribution of the var and dsge model parameters the paper shows that the approach makes even a fairly stylized new keynesian dsge model competitive with standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting real output growth inflation and the nominal interest rate the three variables that are of most interest to policy makers 2 up to this point our procedure borrows from the work of dejong ingram and whiteman 1993 and ingram and whiteman 1994 who are the first to use priors from dsge models for vars ingram and whiteman showed that prior information from the bare bones stochastic growth model of king plosser and rebelo 1988 is helpful in forecasting real economic activity such as output consumption investment and hours worked in addition to documenting the forecasting performance of a trivariate var with a prior derived from a monetary dsge model this paper makes two contributions that significantly extend the earlier work first we show formally how posterior inference for the var parameters can be translated into posterior inference for dsge model parameters

inventories and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy abstract we study how inventory investment affects the design of optimal monetary policy in a new keynesian small open economy model we find that under producer currency pricing when the intratemporal elasticity of substitution is smaller than 1 optimal monetary policy in our model with inventories is similar to a standard model without inventories however when the intratemporal elasticity of substitution is larger than 1 inventory investment increases the importance of nominal exchange rate stabilization relative to a standard model without inventories the importance of nominal exchange rate stabilization increases with the intratemporal elasticity of substitution

interest rates and the market for new light vehicles we study the impact of interest rates changes on both the demand for and supply of new light vehicles in an environment where consumers and manufacturers face their own interest rates an increase in the consumers interest rate raises their cost of financing and thus lowers the demand for new vehicles an increase in the manufacturers interest rate raises their cost of holding inventories both channels have equilibrium effects that are amplified and propagated over time through inventories which serve as a way to both smooth production and facilitate greater sales at a given price through the estimation of a dynamic stochastic market equilibrium model we find evidence of both channels at work and of the important role played by inventories a temporary 100 basis point increase in both interest rates causes vehicle production to fall 12 percent and sales to fall 3 25 percent at an annual rate in the short run

quality frontier of electricity distribution supply security best practices and underground cabling in finland electricity distribution is a prime example of local monopoly in most countries the costs of electricity distribution operators are regulated by the government however the cost regulation may create adverse incentives to compromise the quality of service to avoid this cost regulation is often amended with quality incentives this study applies theory and methods of productivity analysis to model the frontier of service quality a semi nonparametric estimation method is developed which does not assume any particular functional form for the quality frontier but can accommodate stochastic noise and heteroscedasticity the empirical part of our paper examines how underground cabling and location affect the interruption costs as expected higher proportion of underground cabling decreases the level of interruption costs the effects of cabling and location on the variance of performance are also considered especially the location is found to be a significant source of heteroscedasticity in the interruption costs finally the proposed quality frontier benchmark is compared to the current practice of finnish regulation system the proposed quality frontier is found to provide more meaningful and stable basis for setting quality targets than the average practice benchmarks currently in use

input and output inventories in general equilibrium we build and estimate a two sector goods and services dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of inventories materials input inventories facilitate the production of nished goods while nished goods output inventories yield utility services the model is estimated using bayesian methods the estimated model replicates the volatility and cyclicality of inventory investment and inventory to target ratios although inventories are an important element of the model s propagation mechanism shocks to inventory e ciency or management are not an important source of business cycles when the model is estimated over two subperiods pre and post 1984 changes in the volatility of inventory shocks or in structural parameters associated with inventories such as the input inventory to output ratio play a small role in reducing the volatility of output

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

is shareholder wealth maximization immoral for those educated in modern business schools the justification for decisions made by financial professionals in business organizations has been supplied by financial economic theory broadly thi

inventories and the propagation of sectoral shocks this paper contrasts the dynamic properties of an imperfectly competitive economy with a representative agent real business cycle model for both economies inventories are the important dynamic linkage the predictions of these models with regards to the comovement of employment across sectors may differ empirical evidence on the comovement of employment over the business cycle is consistent with the model of imperfect competition with inventory holdings copyright 1990 by american economic association

durability market structure and new used goods models focuses on the relationship between market structure and monopoly power durability models new used goods model durability and monopoly in the new used model interdependence between market structure and durability ebsco

foreign effects of higher u s interest rates abstract this paper analyzes the spillovers of higher u s interest rates on economic activity in a large panel of 50 advanced and emerging economies we allow the response of gdp in each country to vary according to its exchange rate regime trade openness and a vulnerability index that includes current account foreign reserves inflation and external debt we document large heterogeneity in the response of advanced and emerging economies to u s interest rate surprises in response to a u s monetary tightening gdp in foreign economies drops about as much as it does in the united states with a larger decline in emerging economies than in advanced economies in advanced economies trade openness with the united states and the exchange rate regime account for a large portion of the contraction in activity in emerging economies the responses do not depend on the exchange rate regime or trade openness but are larger when vulnerability is high

the adoption of incentive regulation and its effect on technical efficiency in telecommunications in the united states abstract incentive regulation has become an important regulatory tool in the telecommunications industry in the united states the issue explored here is whether incentive regulation has resulted in an increase in efficiency after providing an overview of the nature of incentive regulation a methodology for measuring technical efficiency and its change is introduced this is a multiple output multiple input distance function approach to measuring technical efficiency the results of implementing this approach for 19 local exchange carriers for the 1988 1999 period indicate that in the production of local service intrastate toll access service and interstate access to local loops there was no change in technical efficiency between the 1988 1990 period and the 1991 1999 period something that incentive regulation was specifically designed to promote