the livelihood impacts of cash transfers in sub saharan africa beneficiary perspectives from six countries summary cash transfers cts are a social protection mechanism to reduce the poorest households vulnerability to shocks and build human capital by smoothing consumption and sustaining expenditure on education and social welfare our study examines whether and how cts go beyond welfare objectives to promote livelihoods presenting a cross case analysis using original qualitative data on beneficiary perspectives from six african countries kenya ethiopia malawi lesotho zimbabwe and ghana we explore ct livelihood impacts within household economies and social networks paying attention to gender issues we find that a small but predictable flow of cash improves strategic livelihood choices and stimulates productive investments including through positive effects on beneficiary entry into risk sharing arrangements and networks for economic collaboration levels of household vulnerability and labor constraint nevertheless significantly mediate the ability of cts to consolidate livelihood outcomes the varying availability of economic opportunities plus effective program implementation also shape livelihood impact incorporating beneficiary perspectives brings to the fore the multi dimensionality of ct effects on experiences of poverty and deprivation including gender dynamics and intangibles such as dignity and respect they add powerful realism to the influence of the ct on both immediate survival and livelihood choices beyond this they confirm wider knowledge on productive impact and bring nuance to the conditions under which and mechanisms by which beneficiaries use cts to build productive capability and assets and to make strategic livelihood choices

reconciling food for work project feasibility with food aid targeting in tigray ethiopia abstract food for work ffw projects face the challenge of addressing three kinds of objectives to feed hungry people to build public works where needed and to be feasible for prompt project implementation in the debate over how to target ffw to the poorest of the poor the last two program objectives are often overlooked this research examines ffw afforestation and erosion control programs in central tigray ethiopia during 1992 95 in order to understand how these sometimes conflicting objectives were reconciled statistical analyses examined the factors that influenced 1 in which villages ffw projects were located 2 which households were deemed eligible to participate in ffw in those villages having ffw projects and 3 which eligible households elected to participate and 4 how much time the participating households dedicated to ffw activities project feasibility outweighed the needs for food security or natural resource conservation in influencing whether an ffw project would be located in one of the 25 villages surveyed in villages where ffw was available anti poverty targeting appears to be taking place since smaller households with less land were more likely to be eligible to participate in ffw projects but although the poor were likely to be eligible for ffw some non poor households were also eligible which suggests that anti poverty targeting was not efficient among households eligible for ffw those that were relatively better off larger families that did not lease out land tended to participate and supply more days of ffw labor than the poorest households the only households eligible for ffw which did not participate were headed mostly by elderly women and hence unable rather than unwilling to participate overall anti poverty targeting was sub optimal but reasonable considering that these resource conservation projects need to be located where labor and materials could be made available

capture and governance at local and national levels 135 despite the importance of this issue not much systematic research appears to have been devoted to assessing the relative susceptibility of national and local governments to interestgroup capture here we describe a model of two party electoral competition with probabilistic voting behavior and lobbying by specialinterest groups based on david baron 1994 and gene grossman and elhanan helpman 1996 that helps identify determinants of relative capture at different levels of government these include relative levels of voter awareness and interest group cohesiveness electoral uncertainty electoral competition heterogeneity of districts with respect to inequality and the electoral system while some of these uphold the traditional madisonian presumption others are likely to create a tendency for lower capture at the local level so the net effect is theoretically ambiguous this suggests that the extent of relative capture may be context specific and needs to be assessed empirically

escalators and elevators a phillips curve for keynesians the negatively sloped long run phillips curve remains an issue of contention this paper presents a theoretical model of the phillips curve in which nominal demand growth reduces unemployment caused by stochastic shifts of demand between sectors the model can be understood through the following metaphor keynesian economies are escalator economies in which markets adjust back to equilibrium slowly so that nominal demand growth presents a means of speeding up the escalator process contrastingly new classical economies as set forth by e g lucas 1973 are elevator economies in which adjustment is instantaneous consequently there is no role for nominal demand growth in the adjustment process and to the extent that policy sponsored nominal demand growth is uncertain it may actually disrupt the economy by sending the elevator to the wrong floor

why are power couples increasingly concentrated in large metropolitan areas using the panel study of income dynamics psid we test costa and kahn s colocation hypothesis which predicts that power couples couples in which both spouses have college degrees are more likely to migrate to the largest cities than part power couples or power singles we find no support for this hypothesis instead regression analyses suggest that only the education of the husband and not the joint education profile of the couple affects the propensity to migrate to large metropolitan areas the observed location trends are better explained by higher rates of power couple formation in larger metropolitan areas

interest rates and the fisher effect in india an empirical study abstract this study throws light on the importance of adjustment lags variability of inflation changes in real income etc in the empirical estimation of fisher hypothesis variability of inflation has a significant negative impact on both short and long term interest rates in a developing economy like india the philips curve effect has not been operative in a developing country

is there persistence in the impact of emergency food aid evidence on consumption food security and assets in rural ethiopia we identify the impact of emergency food aid programs after the 2002 drought in rural ethiopia on future welfare based on a difference in differences matching estimator participation in food for work increases growth in total consumption and food consumption eighteen months after the drought separately receiving free food raises growth in food consumption but surprisingly negatively impacts food security food for work benefited households in the middle and upper tail of the consumption distribution while the better targeted free food program benefited the poorest evidence suggests these impacts demonstrate accumulated and persistent effects of food aid received in the first twelve months after the drought

uniform price reverse auction for estimating the costs of reducing open field burning of rice residue in nepal this paper describes the design implementation and results of a uniform price reverse auction and real payment system to incentivize the avoidance of open field burning of rice straw by smallholder farmers in nepal the main objective of the study was to reveal the private costs to farmers of avoiding rice straw burning the study used survey and auction data from a sample of 317 farmers from 18 villages in southern nepal using a sealed bid one shot reverse auction a level of payment was determined at which farmers would find acceptable to not engage in residue burning based on the bid amount 167 winner farmers were enrolled in a real payment programme the results revealed that 86 of the farmers complied with the programme to refrain from burning rice straw with an average payment of us 78 76 ha of paddy farm which represents us 13 17 ton of hbox co mathrm 2 eq of emissions to identify the policy variables linear and log linear regressions were fitted with the bid amount using socioeconomic variables land area farmer education practice of joint household decision making wage rate for farm labour and straw yield increased the bid amount the design and methods of field implementation of the reverse auction gave useful information for the advancement of conservation auctions and their replication in developing countries

do local officials know something we don t decentralization of targeted transfers in albania abstract albania provides a small amount of social assistance to nearly 20 of its population through a system which allows a degree of community discretion in determining distribution this study indicates that relative to other safety net programs in low income countries social assistance in albania is fairly well targeted to the poor moreover the poverty targeting exceeds that which could be expected on the basis of proxy indicators of targeting alone communes appear to be using local information unlikely to be obtained on the basis of a questionnaire or formula this remains the case conditional on the level of funding allocated from the central government

assessing the performance of conservation auctions an experimental study this work uses controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the budgetary and the economic performance of competitive tenders for allocating conservation contracts to landholders experiments have been replicated in two different countries to check for robustness of results we find that auctions outperform the more traditional fixed price programs only in the one shot setting with repetition the auctions quickly lose their edge the budget constrained auction performs similarly to the target constrained in the one shot setting but appears more robust to repetition our results suggest that previous estimates of conservation auction performance are too optimistic and we propose a method for improving such estimates

accounting for racial differences in marriage and employment what can account for the differences in marriage and employment decisions across blacks and whites to answer this question i develop a dynamic equilibrium model of marriage two explanations for the racial differences in behavior are considered differences in population supplies and wages black white differences in population supplies explain one fifth of the difference in marriage rates and between one fifth and one third of the differences in employment rates across race removing the racial gap in wages eliminates the differences in employment but increases the differences in marriage rates

the formation of risk sharing networks this paper examines the formation of risk sharing networks in the rural philippines we find that geographic proximity possibly correlated with kinship is a major determinant of mutual insurance links among villagers age and wealth differences also play an important role in contrast income correlation and differences in occupation are not determinants of network links reported network links have a strong effect on subsequent gifts and loans gifts between network partners are found to respond to shocks and to differences in health status from this we conclude that intra village mutual insurance links are largely determined by social and geographical proximity and are only weakly the result of purposeful diversification of income risk the paper also makes a methodological contribution to the estimation of dyadic models

crime and social interactions the high variance of crime rates across time and space is one of the oldest puzzles in the social sciences this variance appears too high to be explained by changes in the exogenous costs and benefits of crime we present a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross city variance of crime rates this model provides an index of social interactions which suggests that the amount of social interactions is highest in petty crimes moderate in more serious crimes and almost negligible in murder and rape

giving to the poor targeting of food aid in rural ethiopia abstract this study determines the factors underlying the allocations of food aid in ethiopia we focus on regional differences in targeting criteria and targeting accuracy according to per capita income data are drawn from two linked rural household surveys in 1995 96 we find large differences in food aid allocations across regions that cannot be explained by observable regional characteristics such as per capita income and rainfall these differences are consistent with speculation that food aid is being used by the ethiopian government to transfer resources to favored regions we also find wide variations in the criteria used to identify recipient households across regions we identify measurable indicators that could be used by food aid authorities to improve targeting effectiveness in the future both across and within regions finally we present simulation results on targeting accuracy under various targeting strategies and discuss potential benefits and shortcomings of those strategies

social networks and factor markets panel data evidence from ethiopia we investigate the role of an indigenous social network in ethiopia the iddir in facilitating factor market transactions among smallholder farmers we use detailed longitudinal household survey data and employ fixed effects estimation approaches to identify the effect of iddir membership on factor market transactions among farmers we find that joining an iddir network improves households access to land labour and credit transactions our findings also hint that iddir networks may crowd out borrowing from local moneylenders locally referred as arata abedari a relatively expensive credit source these results suggest that non market institutions can play crucial roles in facilitating market transactions

inflation and unemployment the world economy today is vastly different from the 1930s when seymour harris the chairman of this meeting infected me with his boundless enthusiasm for economics and his steadfast confidence in its capacity for good works economics is very different too both the science and its subject have changed and for the better since world war ii but there are some notable constants unemployment and inflation still preoccupy and perplex economists statesmen journalists housewives and everyone else the connection between them is the principal domestic economic burden of presidents and prime ministers and the major area of controversy and ignorance in macroeconomics i have chosen to review economic thought on this topic on this occasion partly because of its inevitable timeliness partly because of a personal interest reaching back to my first published work in 1941

too certain to invest public safety nets and insurance markets in ethiopia researchers efforts to introduce index insurance in developing countries have met with little demand despite its great potential to help farmers mitigate economic risk i argue that researchers have overlooked institutional context s critical role in the formation of private markets when designing insurance contracts using micro level evidence from ethiopia i show that recipients of a preexisting effective large scale public safety net fail to take up a new highly subsidized private insurance offer government safety net programs can decrease demand for private index insurance forming an additional barrier to index insurance take up a direct implication of this research is that policymakers should design private and public insurance products that account for or even complement each other

land and power theory and evidence from chile many employment relationships concede rents to workers depending on the political institutions the presence of such rents allows employers to use the threat of withdrawing them to control their workers political behavior such as their votes in the absence of secret ballot we examine the effects of the introduction of the secret ballot in chile in 1958 on voting behavior before the reforms localities with more pervasive patron client relationships tended to exhibit a much stronger support for the right wing parties traditionally associ ated with the landed oligarchy after the reform however this difference across localities completely disappeared jel d72 n46 o13 o15 o17

aid and agency in africa explaining food disbursements across ethiopian households 1994 2004 abstract we use a principal agent framework and data from the ethiopian rural household survey between 1994 and 2004 to understand biases in the distribution of food aid in ethiopia we show that even when aid is systematically misallocated aid recipients may match official classifications of needy households if agents deviate from allocation rules in ways that are difficult to monitor agent behavior is therefore best understood by comparing aid along dimensions of need that are visible to the principal with those that are difficult to observe outside the village we do this by using data on a panel of 943 households observed over six rounds of the ethiopian rural household survey in support of our model we find that while the demographics of aid recipients do match official criteria disbursements are increasing in pre aid consumption self reported power and involvement in village level organizations we conclude that the extent to which food aid insulates some of the world s poorest families from agricultural shocks depends on a nuanced interaction of policy constraints and informal structures of local power

a laboratory study of auctions for reducing non point source pollution abstract non point source pollution such as nutrient runoff to waterways from agricultural production is an environmental problem that typically involves asymmetric information land use changes to reduce pollution incur opportunity costs that are privately known to landholders but these changes provide environmental benefits that may be more accurately estimated by regulators this paper reports a testbed laboratory experiment in which landholder sellers in sealed offer auctions compete to obtain part of a fixed budget allocated by the regulator to subsidize abatement in one treatment the regulator reveals to landholders the environmental benefits estimated for their projects and in another treatment the regulator conceals the potential projects environmental quality the results show that sellers offers misrepresent their costs more for high quality projects when quality is revealed so total abatement is lower and seller profits are higher when landholders know their projects environmental benefits this suggests that concealing this information may improve regulatory efficiency

consumption insurance an evaluation of risk bearing systems in low income economies the hypothesis of full risk sharing can be taken to data from low income countries and evaluate formal and informal financial systems in many contexts idiosyncratic risks are high so credit insurance arrangements could be beneficial statistical tests reveal that households in southern india take advantage of these possibilities villages in cote d ivoire and countries in thailand do not do as well the paper includes an empirical description of the devices used to smooth consumption and a theoretical discussion of private information and incentives on ideal operating systems the full information and mechanism design frameworks provide benchmarks for policy analysis

a uniform price auction for conservation easements in the canadian prairies this paper describes the application of a uniform price auction with a hidden reserve price in a field project aimed at discovering canadian landowners willingness to accept compensation for placing conservation easements on their lands this is the only project of this kind in canada to date and one of the few worldwide the paper discusses the design of the auction describes its implementation and presents its results the bids received in the auction conformed with known factors affecting opportunity costs and willingness to accept the information from this auction was successful in guiding a long term easement procurement program

auctioning risky conservation contracts conservation auctions have the potential to increase the efficiency of payments to farmers to adopt conservation friendly management practices by fostering competition among them the literature considers bidders that have complete information about the costs of adoption and optimal bidding behavior reflects this information advantage farmers seek information rents and bids decrease when risk aversion increases because farmers are more averse to losing the auction we contribute to the literature by allowing for cost risk our paper shows that farmers must balance the risk of losing the auction thus foregoing information rent with the risk of submitting a bid that is not high enough to pay the costs of adopting conservation practices thus incurring losses we design an experiment to trade off these two risks and examine how risk aversion affects bidding behavior when participants face different sources and levels of risk our experiment contributes to a small literature on experimental auctions with risky product valuations we find that participants decrease their bids as risk aversion increases even in auctions with cost risk suggesting that the risk of losing the auction dominates these findings uncover new challenges for the practical implementation of conservation auctions as an efficient policy instrument

social security and private transfers in developing countries the case of peru do social security systems crowd out private transfers from younger to older generations this question has generated much theoretical discussion but little empirical work exists to confirm or refute this crowding out hypothesis we investigate the connection between social security and private transfers in peru using the peruvian living standards survey and find that private transfers from young to old would have been nearly 20 percent higher without social security benefits this indicates that the peruvian social security system is less effective at delivering benefits to the elderly than a simple assignment of government expenditures would suggest social security s displacement of private transfers while significant is less than that predicted by models with widespread altruistic transfers

should we get married the effect of parents marriage on out of wedlock children i introduction while marriage remains the foundation of family life in the united states the traditional process of family formation specifically marriage before having children has been dwindling the proportion of american children born to unmarried parents has increased dramatically over the past three decades from 12 in 1970 to nearly one third of all births today siglerushton and mclanahan 2002 the decoupling of marriage and fertility behavior is particularly common among the low income less educated urban population mclanahan and sandefur 1994 unmarried parents often have fewer resources and their children tend to display inferior outcomes compared to those raised by two married parents 1 concerned with the rise in out of wedlock parenthood and its implications for the children involved policies in recent years have been geared toward promoting marriage among unmarried parents 2 however little is known about the potential benefits of marriage after childbirth couples who have children out of wedlock are known to be selectively different from those who marry before having children unmarried parents tend to be of lower socioeconomic standing face poorer prospects in the marriage market and have lower incentives for assortative mating brown 2004 garfinkel glei and mclanahan 2002 rosenzweig 1999 hence interpreting the outcome differences found in simple comparisons of children born to married versus unmarried parents as benefits of marriage can be misleading as these differences may largely reflect the more favorable characteristics of married parents this study examines whether marriage between the biological parents after childbearing benefits the children involved using data on a representative sample of children all born to unmarried couples drawn from the fragile families and child wellbeing study ffcws the ffcws is particularly well suited to address this question as it provides child assessment data and detailed marriage fertility and socioeconomic information on both biological parents for a large representative sample of children born outside of marriage we focus on the effect of marriage among parents who are romantically involved at childbirth on child cognitive ability measured at age 3 based on scores from the peabody picture vocabulary test ppvt a widely used interviewer administered measure of receptive hearing and verbal ability in addition effects of marriage on child health and behavioral outcomes are analyzed a significant fraction of children in our sample experience the marriage of their parents we analyze whether marriage after childbearing affects early developmental outcomes using an empirical strategy centering around a potential outcome framework similar to an experiment where the treatment marriage after childbirth is randomly assigned we draw on matching methods e g heckman ichimura and todd 1998 rosenbaum and rubin 1983 to identify the treatment effect exploiting the detailed information on the parents provided in the ffcws this approach addresses the selection into marriage by constructing an appropriate comparison group for children whose parents marry after childbirth we first estimate the probability of marriage among unwed parents with a newborn and then compare the outcomes of children whose parents share similar probabilities of marriage but differ only in whether their parents transitioned into marriage within 3 yr after their birth the present study also sheds light on the role of typically unobserved factors likely to be important determinants of selection into marriage including the father s attributes and the degree to which the parents have similar characteristics positive assortative matching while some studies have examined the determinants of marital union formation among the population of single mothers e g aassve 2003 relatively little is known about the factors influencing the transition into marriage and the role of similarities in traits between unmarried biological parents

targeting of food aid in rural ethiopia chronic need or inertia abstract this paper quantifies the factors underlying the allocations of food aid by the ethiopian government together with local and international non governmental organizations ngos both across rural regions and to households within regions we focus on reduced form specifications in which as little structure as possible is put on the decision rules because so little is known about these rules and their implementation nationally representative rural household data from ethiopia collected in 1996 are used the paper determines the extent to which food aid both free distribution and food for work is targeted to poor households and communities we also demonstrate that food aid allocations display a large degree of spatial continuity over time and are concentrated in areas that at least during the time of the survey are not the poorest the paper attempts to disentangle two competing explanations for the apparent spatial rigidity of food aid allocations that the recipient areas are chronically needy or that needs shift geographically from 1 year to the next but that fixed costs in setting up operations and in the process of identifying needs lead to a degree of inertia in the location of food aid programs over time we conclude that the evidence best fits the inertia explanation

group based funeral insurance in ethiopia and tanzania a funeral is a costly occasion this paper studies indigenous insurance institutions developed to cope with the high costs of funerals based on evidence from rural areas in tanzania and ethiopia these institutions are based on well defined rules and regulations often offering premium based insurance for funeral expenses increasingly they are also offering other forms of insurance and credit to cope with hardship the paper argues that the characteristics and inclusiveness of these institutions make them well placed as models to broaden insurance provision and other developmental activities in these communities the history of these institutions is characterised by a resistance to attempts of political capture and helps to understand their apparent resistance to engage more broadly with ngos and government agencies as a result any attempt to expand their activities will have to be done cautiously

network effects and welfare cultures we empirically examine the role of social networks in welfare participation using data on language spoken at home to better infer networks within an area our empirical strategy asks whether being surrounded by others who speak the same language increases welfare use more for those from high welfare using language groups this methodology allows us to include local area and language group fixed effects and to control for the direct effect of being surrounded by one s language group these controls eliminate many of the problems in previous studies the results strongly confirm the importance of networks in welfare participation

decentralized targeting of an antipoverty program abstract developing country governments often delegate authority over the targeting of antipoverty programs to community organizations while retaining control over how much goes to each community we offer a theoretical characterization of the information structure in such programs and the interconnected behavior of the various players our model motivates an econometric specification for explaining distributional outcomes results for bangladesh s food for education ffe program indicate that within village targeting improved with program size lower land inequality less remoteness fewer shocks and less private redistribution there is no sign that the center took account of village attributes conducive to reaching the poor

participation and investment decisions in a retirement plan the influence of colleagues choices abstract this paper investigates whether peer effects play an important role in retirement savings decisions we use individual data from employees of a large university to study whether individual decisions to enroll in a tax deferred account plan sponsored by the university and the choice of the mutual fund vendor for people who choose to enroll are affected by the decisions of other employees in the same department to overcome the identification problems we divide the departments into sub groups along gender status age and tenure lines and we instrument the average participation of each peer group by the salary or tenure structure in this group our results suggest that peer effects may be an important determinant of savings decisions

consumption smoothing in island economies can public insurance reduce welfare abstract in this paper we study the effects of certain types of public compulsory insurance arrangements for aggregate shocks on private allocations in environments with limited commitment we show that this type of insurance can improve the wellbeing of private situations but it can also deteriorate it we also describe how different characteristics of the environment affect the role of public insurance using data on the mexican progresa program we document the impact that some government programs have in crowding out private transfers

a general equilibrium impact study of the emissions reduction fund in australia by using a national environmental and economic model abstract several climate change policies such as emissions trading schemes and carbon taxes have been implemented in many countries and regions around the world however the current coalition government in australia does not prefer such methods and has argued that these policies would substantially increase the electricity price and weaken the australian competitiveness and the whole economy subsequently the government replaced the carbon tax policy in july 2014 with its emissions reduction fund which fundamentally uses the government budget of a 2 55 billion to buy emission abatements from polluters there are major arguments among the australian public about the efficiency and the effects of this approach but the economic effects are still unidentified this study aims to examine the economy wide effects of this policy on the australian economy by employing a national environmental and economic general equilibrium model so that australians and international audience would be aware of the impacts and how the reverse auction and carbon subsidy work as a policy to reduce emissions at large scales across all sectors in a country results show that australia only experiences relatively small impact on its economy real gdp only declines by 0 3 0 4 over all scenarios industrial and private sectors also experience relatively small unfavourable impacts but the output and export level of the agricultural commodity will decline substantially the renewable sectors are expanded to compensate output reductions in fossil fuel electricity generation sectors though the expansion is insufficient to compensate for the losses

blending top down federalism with bottom up engagement to reduce inequality in ethiopia donors increasingly fund interventions to counteract inequality in developing countries where they fear it can foment instability and undermine nation building efforts to succeed aid relies on the principle of upward accountability to donors but federalism shifts the accountability of subnational officials downward to regional and local voters what happens when aid agencies fund anti inequality programs in federal countries does federalism undermine aid does aid undermine federalism or can the political and fiscal relations that define a federal system resolve the contradiction internally this study explores this paradox via the promotion of basic services program in ethiopia the largest donor financed investment program in the world using an original panel database comprising the universe of ethiopian woredas districts the study finds that horizontal geographic inequality decreased substantially donor financed block grants to woredas increased the availability of primary education and health care services in the bottom 20 percent of woredas weaker evidence from household surveys suggests that vertical inequality across wealth groups within woredas also declined implying that individuals from the poorest households benefit disproportionately from increasing access to and utilization of such services the evidence suggests that by combining strong upward accountability over public investment with extensive citizen engagement on local issues ethiopia s federal system resolves the instrumental dissonance posed by aid funded programs to combat inequality in a federation

food aid targeting in ethiopia a study of who needs it and who gets it abstract the need for systematic empirical analysis of food aid targeting and impacts is overwhelming especially given the large numbers of people concerned and volume of funds allocated to the problem of feeding ethiopia s food insecure this research examines the efficiency of food aid targeting in rural ethiopia based on empirical evidence from a nationally representative survey of 4166 farm households a key finding of the study is that there is no significant association between household food insecurity vulnerability and food aid receipts a result of high errors of exclusion and inclusion at both the wereda and household levels four factors are identified as causes of the high level of targeting error 1 the primary beneficiaries of food aid programs are found to be households at the extremes in terms of food availability those with the least and those with the most food available 2 a disproportionate number of female and aged heads of households received food aid irrespective of their food needs 3 an inability of the food aid system to reach households outside of the historically deficit areas and 4 a disproportionate concentration of food aid in the region of tigray

child growth shocks and food aid in rural ethiopia this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled child growth shocks and food aid in rural ethiopia conducted between 1995 and 1996 in ethiopia the study observed the impact of food aid on child growth and shocks in communities on the child level food aid has a positive significant impact on the growth in height of children the total amount of food aid appears on average to be sufficient to offset the negative effects of plot damage on child growth given the fact there remains a massive amount of child stunting there must be large amounts of mis targeting of aid girls seem to be more resilient to shocks than boys

how responsive are private transfers to income evidence from a laissez faire economy abstract in recent years there has been burgeoning interest in how private transfers respond to household income or transfer derivatives much of it is fueled by the specter of crowding out the more responsive are private transfers the more likely they could be supplanted by expansions in public transfers weakening or destroying the latter s distributive impact yet there is also an emerging consensus that actual transfer derivatives are trivial at least for the united states suggesting that crowding out might loom larger in the minds of some economists than in the data but perhaps crowding out is a fait accompli in the united states accordingly we focus on the philippines which has a much smaller public sector we also pursue a novel theoretical angle which generates a sharp non linear relationship between private transfer receipts and income in the form of a spline our empirical work applies recently developed estimation techniques that treat the spline s threshold as an unknown parameter and they uncover transfer derivatives much larger than conventional methods reveal notably private transfers patterns are consistent with altruistic preferences effective risk sharing or both in accord with theoretical predictions however strong transfer derivatives prevail only among low income households our findings suggest that attempts to aid the poor could be thwarted by private responses which leak benefits to richer households in the form of lighter burdens of support for less fortunate kin so the problems that operative private transfers create for public redistribution policy first pointed out by becker and barro over 25 years ago do indeed matter empirically

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

bottlenecks and the phillips curve a disaggregated keynesian model of inflation output and unemployment benchmark macroeconomic models of output and inflation combine the demand side of the economy with aggregate supply equations based upon some version of the phillips curve in contrast to classical and new classical models such as lucas i972 and sargent 1979 chs i xii and xvi in which prices jump instantaneously to market clearing levels the gradual price adjustment approach represented by tobin 1972 laidler and parkin i975 section 4 barro and grossman 1976 ch 5 sargent 1979 ch ii and ch v i okun i98i and perry i983 take wages and or prices to be predetermined at an instant in time while their rates of change depend on the level of aggregate output in the prototype complete macroeconomic model incorporating this approach output is determined by aggregate demand equations while the augmented phillips curve specifies that prices move in a direction which will tend to return output to its equilibrium value this short run keynesian long run monetarist character is typical of many structural macroeconometric models it is the standard textbook account found for example in dornbusch and fischer i98i and is implicit in much current research there are fundamental questions of consistency in the type of model just described the central difficulty is that with wages and prices predetermined the non market clearing analysis ofbarro and grossman i 976 ch 2 and malinvaud i977 is applicable but in this world the aggregate demand equations are decisive only in the keynesian regime in the other regimes which must arise at high levels of aggregate demand the effective supplies of output or labour or both must be modelled indeed at the aggregate level it is difficult to provide a coherent account of how it is possible to have output above its equilibrium value since this would require labour and output in excess of their notional supplies violating barro and grossman s min condition that quantities be determined by the short side of the market an appealing line for addressing this last difficulty is to disaggregate markets an approach taken by hansen i970 tobin i972 and barro and grossman i976 ch 5 however because each market can be in either excess supply or demand a formal fixed price general equilibrium model appears to be intractable due to the resulting multiplicity of regimes and is not attempted by these authors in this paper these problems are overcome in a disaggregated model in which

how accurate is food for work self targeting in the presence of imperfect factor markets evidence from ethiopia effective targeting of transfers is a key issue in public policy to combat poverty much faith is presently placed in self targeting mechanisms such as public employment schemes supported by food for work transfers where targeting errors have been observed these are usually attributed to mismanagement of key operational details such as the project s wage rate using a unique data set from rural ethiopia we demonstrate that targeting errors may also have structural causes in some low income countries we hypothesise that imperfect factor markets generate a predictable dispersion across households in reservation wage rates that breaks down the unconditionally positive relation between income and shadow wages on which the theory of self targeting public employment programmes rests our results confirm that the inaccuracy of ffw targeting stems from the fact that in rural ethiopia higher income households are endowed with more labour per unit of land or animal due to poor factor markets in land and liv

political connections and social networks in targeted transfer programs evidence from rural ethiopia abstractdespite increasingly large scale social protection programs in africa we have limited evidence on the local political economy of their allocation we investigate community based processes for food aid allocation and the role of political and social networks using the case of ethiopia in the aftermath of a serious drought in 2002 local political authorities are in charge of food transfers in terms of free food aid or food for work programs we find that although targeting is clearly imperfect free food aid is responsive to need as well as targeted to households with less access to support from relatives or friends we also find a strong correlation with political connections households with close associates in official positions have more than a 12 higher probability of obtaining free food than households that are not well connected this effect is large someone without political connections has the same probability of getting food aid as someone more than twice as rich but with these conne

estimating social effects in matching markets externalities in spousal search this paper investigates the hypothesis that individuals are less willing to marry when there are more potential partners to search amongst and thus when others are also less prone to marry to do this it develops a reduced form method a variation on manski s 1993 model that allows identification of such spillovers in two sided matching markets estimates from this method are internally consistent unbiased robust to different definitions of the marriage market and large enough to warrant attention additional evidence suggests that the effect works via the proposed search mechanism

mobility costs frictional unemployment and efficiency with imperfect job information flows it is plausible that the distribution of job offerings becomes more attractive when there are more vacancies and more unemployed with word of mouth communication this condition is derived given this condition steady state equilibrium is not efficient with welfare increased by the introduction of unemployment compensation even though all agents are risk neutral in this way workers become more selective in the jobs they accept

social protection response to the covid 19 crisis options for developing countries the public health response to covid 19 in many countries has involved strict restrictions on movement and economic activity which threaten the livelihoods of economically vulnerable households in response governments are adopting emergency economic measures to provide households with some safety net we provide an overview of the policies that could form a comprehensive social protection strategy in low income and middle income countries with examples of specific policies that have been adopted our core argument is that these countries can cast an emergency safety net with extensive coverage if they use a broader patchwork of solutions than higher income countries these strategies could include expanding their social insurance system building on existing social assistance programmes and involving local governments and non state institutions to identify and assist vulnerable groups who are otherwise harder to reach