a theory of commerce abstract the theory of commerce advanced here captures prominent features of retail trade large employment congestion effects anonymous posted prices and quantity discounts this theory is built around a directed search model where buyers preferences are private information the analytical solution is easily inserted in a neoclassical growth framework in this framework the parameters of retail trade are calibrated using commercial margins and employment welfare properties depend on the sellers ability to charge two tier prices with two tier prices the directed search equilibrium is efficient otherwise it is not this contrasts with the full information benchmark where directed search is always efficient

optimal discretionary monetary policy in a model of asymmetric central bank preferences this paper considers optimal monetary policy in the context of the central bank adopting an asymmetric objective function our results show that under asymmetric preferences many of the extant results on the time consistency problem need no longer hold

simulation of ecb decisions and forecast of short term euro rate with an adaptive fuzzy expert system abstract the elaboration of optimal monetary policy strategies and the statistical estimation of monetary policy rules followed by european central bank ecb in the new currency area of the euro are difficult to follow with the standard statistical models for this reason we have developed an adaptive fuzzy expert system in order to mimic the framework on which the monetary policy strategy of the ecb is based the expert system knowledge base consists of a set of fuzzy and crisp rules located at two different hierarchical levels the high level of the system receives some intermediate output values from the low level and processes this information by means of a set of crisp rules the low level prepares these intermediate output values with the use of a fuzzy inference engine applied to economic input variables the use of an expert system allows for modelling the ecb behaviour with the use of wider scope of knowledge when compared with more traditional computational techniques rules at different hierarchical levels and at different intra level groups allow for managing the potentially contradictory structure of the ecb strategy the system has been tested on the economic and financial time series going from the january 1999 to september 2000 the system s correct prediction was estimated to overall 70 and considering the complexity of the task the results obtained are promising

reforming the governance of the international monetary fund cacy of these initiatives depends upon the level of compliance by the fund s member countries democratising the fund will make the organisation s initiatives more effective as decisions produced by a democratic process have greater legitimacy and credibility amongst participating members the turn toward issues of global governance moves the imf reform debate beyond arguments about the proper size and scope of the fund realistic changes in the governance of the fund can be achieved by rationalising the fund s quota regime which forms the framework for the organisation s decision making process as well as the basis for allocating member contributions to the organisation s resources reforms based on broadly accepted principles will enhance the fund s legitimacy and accountability as a forum for global economic policy decision making a failure to reform the fund coupled with the recurrence of financial crises in the emerging market economies may hinder the growth of the global economy as processes of production are subordinate to the flows of financial capital financial crises have direct impacts on real economic activity moreover even though most financial crises are short lived they exert long term and asymmetric economic and social impacts on the lives of the most vulnerable members of the global economy recent financial crises and global economic trends have already mobilised non governmental organisations students and workers around the world

the distribution of money and prices in search equilibrium this article considers a search theoretic model of monetary exchange agents bargain over both the amount of money and the quantity of goods to be exchanged in bilateral meetings determining endogenously the distributions of money and of prices i show that money is neutral if changes in the money supply are accomplished via proportional transfers however within the class of lump sum transfers an increase of the rate of monetary expansion tends to decrease the dispersion of wealth and prices and to improve welfare when inflation is low but when inflation is high enough the opposite effects occur

whom can we trust to run the fed theoretical support for the founders views abstract the federal reserve has been called a bizarre policymaking structure this paper documents and formalizes a historical argument that the fed s structure was a response to public conflict over inflation s redistributive powers the paper shows that in the face of conflict over redistributive inflation policy by majority can lead to policy that is worse even for the majority than obvious alternatives in balancing the interests for and against surprise inflation the fed s structure can lead to a better outcome

measuring the time inconsistency of us monetary policy this paper offers an alternative explanation for the great inflation of the 1970s by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time inconsistency in the presence of asymmetric preferences the monetary authorities generate a systematic inflation bias through the private sector expectations of a larger policy response in recessions than in booms the estimated fed s implicit target for inflation has declined from the pre to the post volcker regime the average inflation bias was about 1 before 1979 but this has disappeared over the last two decades because the preferences on output stabilization were large and asymmetric only in the former period

sports sentiment and stock returns this paper investigates the stock market reaction to sudden changes in investor mood motivated by psychological evidence of a strong link between soccer outcomes and mood we use international soccer results as our primary mood variable we find a significant market decline after soccer losses for example a loss in the world cup elimination stage leads to a next day abnormal stock return of 49 basis points this loss effect is stronger in small stocks and in more important games and is robust to methodological changes we also document a loss effect after international cricket rugby and basketball games this paper employs a novel mood variable international soccer results to investigate the effect of investor sentiment on asset prices using a cross section of 39 countries we find that losses in soccer matches have an economically and statistically significant negative effect on the losing country s stock market for example elimination from a major international soccer tournament is associated with a next day return on the national stock market index that is 38 basis points lower than average we also document a loss effect after international cricket rugby and basketball games on average the effect is smaller in magnitude for these other sports than for soccer but is still economically and statistically significant we find no evidence of a corresponding effect after wins for any of the sports that we study controlling for the pre game expected outcome we are able to reject the hypothesis that the loss effect after soccer games is driven by economic factors such as reduced productivity or lost revenues we

noisy signals in target zone regimes theory and monte carlo experiments abstract previous empirical evidence indicates that uncovered interest parity uip does not hold for target zone exchange rates like those in the european monetary system and in the nordic countries we explore a target zone model where the market infers the probability of a realignment of the band on the basis of a noisy signal we show theoretically and through monte carlo simulations that if the market overrates the information content in the signal then this may explain the empirical results obtained from testing uip for target zone exchange rates

reforming the imf s weighted voting system this paper surveys various proposals to reform the imf s quota determination process and voting regime we first provide some necessary context by describing imf decision rules including the methods by which the fund determines quotas according to countries relative positions in the world economy this section also addresses the arbitrariness of the imf quota determination process and how imf decision rules hamper developing country influence within the fund following this we review several proposals designed to provide developing countries greater voice in imf decision making we conclude that the problems of developing country representation are not likely to be fixed by either reallocating quotas on the margins of the existing imf system or by tinkering with the quota determination formulas rather more fundamental institutional adjustments will be required

asymmetric information and rational expectations when is it right to be wrong abstract in this paper we examine the effects of private agents being less than fully rational in their expectations we examine this in the context of monetary policy where the central bank may have uncertain preferences either by choice or by necessity the new feature is that we allow the public to react in two different ways they either form rational expectations and internalize the uncertainty about the central bank s preferences in full or alternatively and if this process of internalization is costly it forms a best guess regarding those preferences this implies a certainty equivalence strategy applied to the preference parameters as those parameters enter the decisions non linearly a systematic error emerges we examine the magnitude of the resulting error in inflation and output following the assumption of certainty equivalence under all reasonable levels of uncertainty this error turns out to be small but involves trading a deflation bias against the cost of gathering the information needed for the full information rational expectations solution

the imf a bird s eye view of its role and operations the international monetary fund imf is the world s premier international financial institution with 184 member countries and active programmes in a significant number of them at any one time the fund attracts a great deal of attention much of it critical but the discussion is often polemic in style strongly held but frequently opposing views are expressed this survey attempts to examine in an objective way the theory and evidence relating to the fund s operations many aspects of the empirical research are relatively recent and a universal consensus is yet to emerge as a consequence there is scope for disagreement to persist however the research is also gradually clarifying many important issues the format for the survey is to examine the life cycle of imf arrangements what makes a country turn to the fund for assistance should the imf be lending what influences the outcome of negotiations and the design of programmes are imf programmes effective and why do some countries make prolonged use of imf resources for completeness there is also some discussion of the history of the imf the extent to which fund policies have been influenced by advances in economic theory and the fund s systemic role important organisational and governance issues are also covered briefly although primarily adopting an economist s perspective the survey reflects the growing recognition that in order to understand the imf s operations economics has to be combined with politics examining the imf is an exercise in applied political economy copyright 2007 the author journal compilation 2007 blackwell publishing ltd

money interest rates and exchange rates with endogenously segmented markets we analyze the effects of money injections on interest rates and exchange rates when agents must pay a baumol tobin style fixed cost to exchange bonds and money asset markets are endogenously segmented because this fixed cost leads agents to trade bonds and money infrequently when the government injects money through an open market operation only those agents that are currently trading absorb these injections through their impact on these agents consumption these money injections affect real interest rates and real exchange rates the model generates the observed negative relation between expected inflation and real interest rates as well as persistent liquidity effects in interest rates and volatile and persistent exchange rates

pegged exchange rate regimes a trap this paper studies the empirical and theoretical association between the duration of a pegged exchange rate and the cost experienced upon exiting the regime we confirm empirically that exits from pegged exchange rate regimes during the past two decades have often been accompanied by crises the cost of which increases with the duration of the peg before the crisis we explain these observations in a framework in which the exchange rate peg is used as a commitment mechanism to achieve inflation stability but multiple equilibria are possible we show that there are ex ante large gains from choosing a more conservative not only in order to mitigate the inflation bias from the well known time inconsistency problem but also to steer the economy away from the high inflation equilibria these gains however come at a cost in the form of the monetary authority s lesser responsiveness to output shocks in these circumstances using a pegged exchange rate as an anti inflation commitment device can create a trap whereby the regime initially confers gains in anti inflation credibility but ultimately results in an exit occasioned by a big enough adverse real shock that creates large welfare losses to the economy we also show that the more conservative is the regime in place and the larger is the cost of regime change the longer will be the average spell of the fixed exchange rate regime and the greater the output contraction at the time of a regime change

relative prices and investment rates abstract we construct a panel for the price of aggregate investment over consumption and report the following observations 1 relative price differences across countries are large over the entire sample period and this conclusion is not affected by excluding non tradable consumption goods 2 relative price dispersion has decreased during the sample period 3 relative price changes are not persistent across periods while average price levels are moreover the persistence in relative price levels is higher for countries at low relative prices we show that the relative price of investment is negatively correlated with investment rates in a cross section of countries the standard one sector growth model is a natural framework to study quantitatively the effects of barriers to capital accumulation since there is a very simple mapping between barriers to investment and relative prices in this environment we simulate a calibrated version of the model in which barriers follow a stochastic process common to all countries and estimated using relative price data and obtain statistics for investment rates that closely resemble what we observe in the data in particular the model accounts for 90 of the 1985 gini index of relative investment rates and the decline in investment rate dispersion over time the model has two limitations as a theory of development first it cannot account for the income disparity in the data unless we assume unmeasured capital with barriers affecting the broad measure of capital second even under these extreme assumptions the model cannot account for the evolution of income disparity over time

outsiders at the bank of england s mpc the monetary policy committee mpc of the bank of england which was established in may 1997 consists of five internal and four external members we study the voting record and show that insiders dissent rarely and typically for higher rather than lower rates whereas outsiders dissent more often prefer lower rates and disagree with the majority when economic growth slows moreover their dissents forecast future interest rate changes we show that a model in which outsiders dislike output below potential more than output above replicates the observed voting pattern well

testing commitment models of monetary policy evidence from oecd economies in ation rates in a number of oecd follow a common trend over the past four decades in ation starts out low in the 1960s rises for a time before peaking in the 1970s or early 1980s and then falls back to initial levels this similarity in the behavior of trend in ation suggests that any explanation of long run in ation trends ought to apply across oecd countries ireland 1999 shows that a simple time inconsistency model of monetary policy modifled to allow for a time varying nairu can explain long run trends in u s in ation in this paper we show that this result cannot serve as an explanation of the common trend in oecd in ation as it flts the data only in the u s we investigate two important variants of the hypothesis i that time inconsistency was an important component of central bank behavior in earlier decades but has become less signiflcant in recent years and ii that time inconsistency problems drive u s in ation which afiects in ation rates in other countries as a result of central bankers attempts to manage nominal exchange rate movements vis a vis the u s dollar we flnd that the flrst hypothesis flts the data no better than the baseline model we flnd some support for the international spillovers version of the model but the behavior of non u s central bankers with respect to domestic unemployment rates is not well described by the time inconsistency mechanism

monetary policy and distribution a segmented markets model of monetary policy is constructed in which a novel feature is goods market segmentation and its relationship to conventional asset market segmentation the implications of the model for the response of prices interest rates consumption labor supply and output to monetary policy are determined as well optimal monetary policy is studied as are the costs of inflation the model features persistent nonneutralities of money relative price effects of increases in the money supply persistent liquidity effects and a negative fisher effect from a money supply increase a friedman rule is in general suboptimal

extrapolation and bubbles abstract we present an extrapolative model of bubbles in the model many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals an average of the asset s past price changes and the asset s degree of overvaluation and waver over time in the relative weight they put on them the model predicts that good news about fundamentals can trigger large price bubbles that bubbles will be accompanied by high trading volume and that volume increases with past asset returns we present empirical evidence that bears on some of the model s distinctive predictions

the time varying nairu and its implications for economic policy the nairu the unemployment rate consistent with a constant rate of inflation is estimated in this paper as a parameter allowed to vary over time value is determined in an econometric model where the inflation rate depends on its past values demand and supply shocks the nairu estimated for the gdp deflator varies over the past forty years within 5 4 to 6 5 percent its estimated value for the most recent quarter 1996 q2 is 5 6 percent the nairu has declined in recent years in response to global competition immigration other factors weakening labor s bargaining position and the rapidly declining prices of computers and other electronics

robust monetary policy with the cost channel recent research argues that model uncertainty leads the central bank to adjust interest rates stronger to exogenous disturbances than under certainty this paper investigates whether the introduction of a cost channel of monetary transmission whose presence is empirically supported changes the impact of model uncertainty on interest rate setting the model is simple enough to facilitate an analytical solution i find that the presence of the cost channel dampens the effect of model uncertainty on interest rate setting and can offset the activist policy stance a richer model that allows for persistent supply and demand shocks corroborates these findings

the cyclical behavior of the price cost markup countercyclical markups constitute the key transmission mechanism for monetary and other demand shocks in new keynesian models this paper tests the foundation of those models by studying the cyclical properties of the markup of price over marginal cost the first part of the paper studies markups in the aggregate economy and the manufacturing sector we use bils s 1987 insights for converting average cost to marginal cost but do so with richer data we find that all measures of markups are either procyclical or acyclical moreover we show that monetary shocks lead markups to fall with output the second part of the paper merges input output information on shipments to the government with detailed industry data to study the effect of demand changes on industry level markups industry level markups are found to be acyclical in response to demand changes

sticky prices a new monetarist approach why do some sellers set nominal prices that apparently do not respond to changes in the aggregate price level in many models prices are sticky by assumption here it is a result we use search theory with two consequences prices are set in dollars since money is the medium of exchange and equilibrium implies a nondegenerate price distribution when the money supply increases some sellers may keep prices constant earning less per unit but making it up on volume so profit stays constant the calibrated model matches price change data well but in contrast to typical sticky price models money is neutral jel e52 e31 e42

existence of a monetary steady state in a matching model indivisible money abstract existence of a monetary steady state is established for a random matching model with divisible goods indivisible money an arbitrary bound on individual money holdings and take it or leave it offers by consumers the background environment is that in papers by shi and by trejos and wright the monetary steady state shown to exist has nice properties the value function defined on money holdings is strictly increasing and strictly concave and the measure over money holdings has full support

a divisible search model of fiat money this paper extends the kiyotaki wright search model of fiat money to allow for divisible money and goods the extension allows me to examine the standard issues in monetary economics such as the neutrality and superneutrality of money by severing the artificial link in the kiyotaki wright model between the money supply and the number of money holders it is shown that money is neutral but not superneutral money growth generates a trading opportunity effect it changes the fraction of different agents in the economy and hence changes the probability with which agents have a successful match in addition money growth has a negative effect on the real money balance that is familiar in walrasian monetary models the balance of the two effects can imply a positive optimal money growth rate

investor attention overconfidence and category learning abstract motivated by psychological evidence that attention is a scarce cognitive resource we model investors attention allocation in learning and study the effects of this on asset price dynamics we show that limited investor attention leads to category learning behavior i e investors tend to process more market and sector wide information than firm specific information this endogenous structure of information when combined with investor overconfidence generates important features observed in return comovement that are otherwise difficult to explain with standard rational expectations models our model also demonstrates new cross sectional implications for return predictability

sticky price models of the business cycle can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem we construct a quantitative equilibrium model with firms setting prices in a staggered fashion and use it to ask whether monetary shocks can generate business cycle fluctuations these fluctuations include persistent movements in output along with the other defining features of business cycles like volatile investment and smooth consumption we assume that prices are exogenously sticky for a short time persistent output fluctuations require endogenous price stickiness in the sense that firms choose not to change prices much when they can do so we find that for a wide range of parameter values the amount of endogenous stickiness is small thus we find that in a standard quantitative model staggered price setting alone does not generate business cycle fluctuations

search bargaining money and prices the goal of this paper is to extend existing search theoretic models of fiat money which until now have assumed that the price level is exogenous by explicitly incorporating bilateral bargaining this allows us to determine the price level endogenously and leads to additional insights concerning the role of money for example we find that monetary equilibria are generally inefficient in the sense that output and prices differ from the solution to a social planner s problem although the difference can become small as the discount rate or search friction vanishes we also find that there exist nonstationary inflationary equilibria

the central banker as a risk manager estimating the federal reserve s preferences under greenspan we derive a natural generalization of the taylor rule that links changes in the interest rate to the balance of the risks implied by the dual objective of sustainable economic growth and price stability this monetary policy rule reconciles economic models of expected utility maximization with the risk management approach to central banking within this framework we formally test and reject the standard assumption of quadratic and symmetric preferences in inflation and output that underlies the derivation of the taylor rule our results suggest that fed policy decisions under greenspan were better described in terms of the fed weighing upside and downside risks to their objectives rather than simply responding to the conditional mean of inflation and of the output gap

optimal money creation in pure currency economies a conjecture in a pure currency economy money is the only durable object and people have private histories in such economies taxation is not feasible and in some of them trade is enhanced through the use of money for economies of that kind in which a nondegenerate distribution of money part of the state of the economy affects trades and real outcomes and in which trades affect the state at the next date the conjecture is that there are transfer schemes financed by money creation that improve ex ante representative agent welfare relative to what can be achieved holding the stock of money fixed jel codes e52 e58 copyright 2014 oxford university press

are international monetary fund quotas unfavorable to less developed countries a normative historical analysis abstract the international monetary fund criterion of economic size receives normative justification as the determinant of quotas but size must be represented by appropriately measured income reserves and trade the fund s income measure is deficient because it uses exchange rates rather than purchasing power parities to convert figures to a common currency if a favourable quota disparity is defined as an actual quota above the quota predicted by economic size less developed countries had adverse disparities early in imf history but increasingly favorable disparities over time given the inertia of relative quotas members would do well to maximize their initial quota

on the performance of nominal income targeting as a strategy for monetary policy in a small open economy abstract there is a great deal of support for nominal income targeting in the literature on strategies for monetary policy in a closed economy framework is nominal income targeting equally attractive in a small open economy this paper compares nominal income targeting to alternative monetary policy rules in a stochastic macro model for a small open economy we find that both the weighting in the overall price level of the exchange rate and foreign prices and the elasticity of output supplied with respect to the real exchange rate are important factors in assessing the attractiveness of nominal income targeting in a small open economy where the size of both parameters is not negligible a rule targeting the overall price level may actually be preferred to nominal income targeting

optimal policy intervention and the social value of public information svensson 2006 argues that morris and shin s 2002 analysis is contrary to what is claimed actually pro transparency this paper re examines the issue but with an important modification to the original morris and shin framework recognizing that central banks impact on the economy not only indirectly via their public announcements but also directly through their policy actions we consider the social value of public information in the presence of active policy intervention our results strengthen morris and shin s conclusions considerably in particular we find that public disclosure of the central bank s information is always undesirable

short run and long run effects of changes in money in a random matching model a random matching model of money is used to deduce the effects of a once for all change in the quantity of money it is shown that the change has short run effects that are predominantly real and long run effects that are in the direction of being predominantly nominal provided that the change is random and people learn its realization only with a lag the change in the quantity of money comes about through a random process of discovery that does not permit anyone to deduce the aggregate amount discovered when the change actually occurs

the nairu in theory and practice airu stands for the nonaccelerating ine ation rate of unemployment it is beyond dispute that this acronym is an ugly addition to the english language there are however two issues that fail to command consensus among economists which we address in this essay the e rst issue is whether the concept of the nairu is a useful piece of business cycle theory we believe it is and we begin this paper by attempting to explain why in our view the nairu is approximately a synonym for the natural rate of unemployment this concept follows naturally from any theory that says that changes in monetary policy and aggregate demand more generally push ine ation and unemployment in opposite directions in the short run once this short run tradeoff is admitted there must be some level of unemployment consistent with stable ine ation the second issue is why the nairu changes over time and in particular why it fell in the second half of the 1990s this question is more dife cult and the answer is open to debate most likely various factors are at work including demographics and government policies yet one hypothesis stands out as particularly promising e uctuations in the nairu appear related to e uctuations in productivity in the 1970s the nairu rose when productivity growth slowed in the 1990s the nairu fell when productivity growth sped up developing and testing models that explain the links among ine ation unemployment and productivity remains a challenge for students of business cycle theory

the anticipated and concurring effects of the emu exchange rate volatility institutions and growth abstract reduced exchange rate volatility and higher and less heterogeneous quality of institutional rules and macroeconomic policies are two of the main anticipated and concurring effects expected from a currency union in this paper we measure the magnitude of these two effects for the eurozone countries looking at real effective exchange rates reer and at different indicators of quality of institutional rules and macroeconomic policies qirmp we find that the first effect is much stronger than the second when we compare relative changes for eurozone countries and the rest of the world in the relevant period we further evaluate the impact of both effects on economic growth on a larger sample of countries our findings show that both have significant impact on levels more robust and on rates of growth weaker of per capita gdp

nonneutrality of money in dispersion hume revisited for a class of standard and widely used preferences a one shot money injection in a standard matching model can induce a significant and persistent output response by dispersing the distribution of wealth decentralized trade matters for both persistence and significance in the presence of government bonds the injection has a liquidity effect and the inflation rate right following the injection may be below the steady state rate level

mood firm behavior and aggregate economic outcomes abstract this study examines whether mood affects the aggregate state level macroeconomy through its impact on firm level decisions using sky cloud cover as a proxy for mood we show that mood affects the economic expectations of small business managers after relatively sunnier periods managers have more optimistic expectations and the component of their expectations related to mood influences hiring and investment decisions consequently mood affects state level job creation and new business starts especially during periods of greater economic uncertainty these results suggest that mood induced economic expectations influence firm level managerial decisions and state level macroeconomic fluctuations

inflation forecasts and monetary policy proposals for inflation targeting as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long run inflation target an interesting possibility is that the central bank might target current private sector forecasts of inflation either those made explicitly by professional forecasters or those implicit in asset prices we address the issue of existence and uniqueness of rational expectations equilibria when the central bank uses private sector forecasts as a guide to policy actions in a dynamic model which incorporates both sluggish price adjustment and shocks to aggregate demand and aggregate supply we show that strict targeting of inflation forecasts is typically inconsistent with the existence of rational expectations equilibrium and that policies approximating strict inflation forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties we also show that economies with more general forecast based policy rules are particularly susceptible to indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria we conclude that although private sector forecasts may contain information useful to the central bank ultimately the monetary authorities must rely on an explicit structural model of the economy to guide their policy decisions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

distinguished lecture on economics in government what central bankers could learn from academics and vice versa academic writing about monetary policy has been useful to practical central bankers but more of certain aspects of the economists way of thinking could profitably be imported on the other hand academics could improve their analysis and make it more useful to policymakers if they would pay more attention to certain real world aspects of monetary policy the author draws on his experience at the federal reserve board to point out a number of specific lessons for each side

growth theory and industrial revolutions in britain and america abstract long run economic growth has again become a major focus of economic theory a perception of technological change as an economic process with externalities has motivated the development of aggregate models that generate different steady state growth paths economic history has also long been interested in long run economic growth here a dialogue is presented between growth theory and the historical literature on the industrial revolution in britain and america s surge to international economic leadership in the late nineteenth century in conclusion economists recent thinking about the microeconomics of technological change has provided fruitful material for the economic historian of growth unfortunately the models of endogenous growth on the other hand present too aggregated a view of the economy to prove helpful when confronted with the details of economic history jel classification n0 n1 1 theorie de la croissance et revolutions industrielles en grande bretagne et en amerique la croissance economique a long terme est redevenue un point d interet majeur pour la theorie economique une perception du changement technologique comme processus economique porteur d externalites a engendre le developpement de modeles agreges qui generent differents sentiers de croissance en regime permanent l histoire economique s interesse depuis longtemps a la croissance economique a long terme ce texte engage le dialogue entre la theorie de la croissance et la litterature historique a propos de la revolution industrielle en grande bretagne et de l emergence de l amerique au statut de leader international a la fin du dix neuvieme siecle on en arrive a la conclusion que les recents developpements dans la pensee economique a propos de la micro economie du changement technologique ont produit des resultats utiles pour l histoire economique de la croissance malheureusement d autre part les modeles de croissance endogene presente une vue trop agregee de l economie pour s averer utile dans l examen des details de l histoire economique

good day sunshine stock returns and the weather psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood this paper examines the relationship between morning sunshine in the city of a country s leading stock exchange and daily market index returns across 26 countries from 1982 to 1997 sunshine is strongly significantly correlated with stock returns after controlling for sunshine rain and snow are unrelated to returns substantial use of weather based strategies was optimal for a trader with very low transactions costs however because these strategies involve frequent trades fairly modest costs eliminate the gains these findings are difficult to reconcile with fully rational price setting

quantifying the risk of deflation we propose formal and quantitative measures of the risk that future inflation will be excessively high or low relative to the range preferred by a private sector agent unlike alternative measures of risk our measures are designed to make explicit the dependence of risk measures on the private sector agent s preferences with respect to inflation we illustrate our methodology by estimating the risks of deflation for the united states germany and japan for horizons of up to 2 years the question of how large these risks are has been subject to considerable public debate we find that as of september 2002 when this question first arose there was no evidence of substantial deflation risks for the united states and for germany contrary to some conjectures at the time in contrast there was evidence of substantial deflation risks in japan

do weather induced moods affect the processing of earnings news we investigate whether unpleasant environmental conditions affect stock market participants responses to information events we draw from psychology research to develop a new prediction that weather induced negative moods reduce market participants activity levels exploiting geographic variation in equity analysts locations we find compelling evidence that analysts experiencing unpleasant weather are slower or less likely to respond to an earnings announcement relative to analysts responding to the same announcement but experiencing pleasant weather price association tests find evidence consistent with reduced activity due to weather induced moods delaying equilibrium price adjustments following earnings announcements we also use our analyst based research design to re examine an existing prediction that unpleasant weather induces investor pessimism and find evidence of both analyst pessimism and reduced activity in the presence of unpleasant weather together our study provides new evidence that both extends and reaffirms findings of a relation between unpleasant weather and market activities and contributes to the broader psychology and economics literature on the impact of weather induced mood on labor productivity this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

winter blues a sad stock market cycle and god said let there be light and there was light and god saw that the light was good genesis 1 3 depression has been linked with seasonal affective disorder sad a condition that affects many people during the seasons of relatively fewer hours of daylight experimental research in psychology has documented a clear link between depression and lowered risktaking behavior in a wide range of settings including those of a financial nature through the links between sad and depression and between depression and risk aversion seasonal variation in length of day can translate into seasonal variation in equity returns based on supportive evidence from psychology which suggests sad is linked closely with hours of daylight we consider stock market index data from countries at various latitudes and on both sides of the equator we model differences in the seasonal variation of daylight across coun

optimal monetary policy with a nonlinear phillips curve abstract the analysis of optimal discretionary monetary policy under a non linear phillips curve is shown to yield results that are in marked contrast to conventional results that are drawn from the linear paradigm specifically we show that there exists a deflation bias in expected output while the inflation bias cannot be signed preference uncertainty however adds to expected inflation

bargaining and the value of money abstract search models of monetary exchange have typically relied on nash 1950 the bargaining problem econometrica 18 155 162 bargaining or strategic games that yield an equivalent outcome to determine the terms of trade by considering alternative axiomatic bargaining solutions in a search model with divisible money we show that the properties of the bargaining solutions do matter both qualitatively and quantitatively for questions of first degree importance in monetary economics such as i the efficiency of monetary equilibrium ii the optimality of the friedman rule and iii the welfare cost of inflation

barriers to entry and development we ask whether barriers to entry are a quantitatively important reason for the income gap between developing countries and the united states we develop a tractable general equilibrium model that captures the effects of barriers to entry and the other main distortions typically considered in the development literature we carry our model to the data and ask it to match the main development facts from the penn world table we find that this requires large barriers to entry in developing countries which account for about half of the income gap with the united states

a unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis search theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential however tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis we propose a new framework based on explicit micro foundations within which macro policy can be studied the framework is analytically tractable and easily quantifiable we calibrate the model to standard observations and use it to measure the cost of inflation we find that going from 10 percent to 0 percent inflation is worth between 3 and 5 percent of consumption much higher than previous estimates

developing country representation and governance of the international monetary fund summary this article examines the representation of developing countries in the imf s quota regime we first describe how the fund determines quotas according to countries relative positions in the world economy current quotas of member states are then compared to different measures of relative weight in the world economy we also compare four different methods of computing quotas current quotas calculated quotas quotas calculated using formulas proposed by the imf s external quota formula review group and those proposed by former imf executive director vijay kelkar we find that developing countries are over rather than under represented if the focus is restricted to variables similar to those used by the imf introduction of other variables for example population or ppp based versions of gdp produces quite different results the paper concludes with brief consideration of possible changes that would enhance developing country participation in fund decision making

reputation in a model of monetary policy with incomplete information abstract previous models of rules versus discretion are extended to include uncertainty about the policymaker s type when people observe low inflation they raise the possibility that the policymaker is committed to low inflation type 1 this enhancement of reputation gives the uncommitted policymaker type 2 an incentive to masquerade as the committed type in the equilibrium the policymaker of type 1 delivers surprisingly low inflation with corresponding costs to the economy over an extended interval the type 2 person mimics this outcome for awhile but shifts eventually to high inflation this high inflation is surprising initially but subsequently becomes anticipated

money and prices a model of search and bargaining abstract this paper makes commodities divisible and incorporates bargaining into the search theoretic model of money to determine the purchasing power of money or price it is shown that two monetary equilibria always coexist where fiat money is universally accepted the two equilibria differ in price output welfare and the velocity of money sunspot monetary equilibria exist in which money is universally accepted in all states of the economy multiplicity has novel implications on the effectiveness of currency substitution and exchange market intervention journal of economic literature classification numbers c78 e40

are seasonal anomalies real a ninety year perspective in recent years there has been a proliferation of empirical studies documenting unexpected or anomalous regularities in security rates of return in addition to the widely studied relation between firm size and rate of return 1 these include seasonal regularities related to the time of the day harris 1986 the day of the week see ball and bowers 1986 cross 1973 french 1980 gibbons and hess 1981 jaffe and westerfield 1985 keim and stambaugh 1984 and lakonishok and levi 1982 the time of the month ariel 1987 and the turn of the year see haugen and lakonishok 1988 jones pearce and wilson 1987 lakonishok

mood betas and seasonalities in stock returns abstract existing research has found cross sectional seasonality of stock returns the periodic outperformance of certain stocks during the same calendar months or weekdays we hypothesize that assets different sensitivities to investor mood explain these effects and imply other seasonalities consistent with our hypotheses relative performance across individual stocks or portfolios during past high or low mood months and weekdays tends to recur in periods with congruent mood and reverse in periods with noncongruent mood furthermore assets with higher sensitivities to aggregate mood higher mood betas subsequently earn higher returns during ascending mood periods and earn lower returns during descending mood periods

why money growth determines inflation in the long run answering the woodford critique woodford 2007 argues that it is not appropriate to regard inflation in the steady state of new keynesian models as determined by steady state money growth woodford instead argues that the intercept term in the monetary authority s interest rate policy rule determines steady state inflation in this paper i offer an alternative interpretation of steady state behavior according to which it is appropriate to regard steady state inflation as determined by steady state money growth the argument relies on traditional interpretations of the central bank s power in the long run and appeals to model properties that are common to textbook and new keynesian analysis according to this argument the only way the central bank can control interest rates in the long run is via affecting inflation and its only means available for determining inflation is by determining the money growth rate

evaluating monetary policy options we present a procedure for evaluating ex ante the effects of alternative paths of a monetary policy tool the federal funds rate in our illustrations on output and the price level within a variant of a widely used vector autoregressive model of the u s economy this exercise is a supplement to or even an alternative to analysis that relies on a particular structural model illustrations of the method are provided by evaluating the effects of changes in the funds rate target additionally the taylor rule is used to generate target funds rates for different target inflation rates and the effects of these are evaluated one of the critical elements in the formulation of monetary policy is the evaluation of the effects of alternative paths of the policy instrument on the macroeconomy for example in federal open market committee fomc meetings estimates of the effects of alternative paths of the federal funds rate are presented to policymakers as an input into the policy process for a discussion see meulendyke 1998 the effects of the alternative paths are evaluated within the context of a structural model of the economy the latest version of the structural model used at the board of governors is described in brayton et al 1997 in this article we present a procedure for evaluating ex ante the effects of alternative paths of a monetary policy tool the federal funds rate in our illustrations on output and the price level we demonstrate this procedure employing a variant of a widely used vector autoregressive var model of the u s economy this exercise can be viewed as a supplement to or even an alternative to analysis that relies on a particular structural model given the lack of general agreement on the appropriate structural model evaluation of the effects of changes in the policy instrument within a variety of different types of models is appropriate the discussion of the proposed procedure is in the spirit of recent work by leeper and sims 1994 who following earlier work by sims 1982 1987 distinguish between normal policymaking and regime changes for purposes of illustration we employ a var model comprised of the same variables used by christiano eichenbaum and evans hereafter cee 1994 1996 and bernanke and mihov hereafter bm 1998 we show how to evaluate and compare the current policy path with normal policy alternatives such as typically sized changes in the federal funds target we stress that this model is used only for illustrative purposes our methodology applies to any generic structural model and thus can easily

pairwise trade and coexistence of money and higher return assets abstract a new theory of coexistence of money and higher return assets is set out it applies to any setting in which some trade involves an exchange of goods for assets and occurs between two people a buyer and a seller we show that there exists a function mapping the portfolios of the buyer and the seller to the trade that occurs such that i the trade is in the buyer seller core and ii some people are induced to enter the buyer seller meeting with money

credibility and flexibility with independent monetary policy committees independent monetary policy committees are a simple way of attaining relatively low inflation without completely sacrificing an activist role for monetary policy if central bankers types are unknown then for a wide range of parameters an independent committee achieves higher social welfare than either a zero inflation rule or discretionary policy conducted by an opportunistic central banker a key reason for the committee s superior performance is that committee members are relatively likely to opt for low inflation and building a reputation when shocks are small when large shocks hit the economy the incentive to react outweighs the reputationbuilding benefit

majority rule consensus building and the power of the chairman arthur burns and the fomc this paper investigates decision making within the federal open market committee of the federal reserve focusing on the competing pressures of majority rule consensus building and the power of the chairman to undertake this analysis we have constructed an original data set recording desired federal funds rates for each member of the committee over the 1970 78 period our results confirm a disproportionate influence of the chairman in the policy process they also confirm that other voting members of the committee have an impact on policy choices estimates indicate that the chairman exercises 40 to 50 of the voting weight in committee decisions

making monetary policy objectives and rules what is it that monetary policy makers do and how do they do it the simple answer is that a central banker moves interest rates in order to maintain steady real growth and stable prices in this essay i examine the issues that arise in framing the problem faced by monetary policy makers i begin with a discussion of how over the past decade or so central banks have been made more independent and more accountable the result has been the virtual elimination of the inflation bias problem that is caused by political interference in the monetary policy process and better overall macroeconomic performance the essay proceeds with an example of a formal version of the policymakers problem describing their objectives and the information they need to formulate a policy rule i conclude with a discussion of a simple versus complex policy rules the impact of uncertainty on policy making and how central bankers use formal modelling in making their day to day decisions copyright 2000 by oxford university press

liquidity a new monetarist perspective this essay surveys the new monetarist approach to liquidity work in this literature strives for empirical and policy relevance plus rigorous foundations questions include what is liquidity is money essential in achieving desirable outcomes which objects can or should serve in this capacity when can asset prices differ from fundamentals what are the functions of commitment and collateral in credit markets how does money interact with credit and intermediation what can and should monetary policy do the research summarized emphasizes the micro structure of frictional transactions and studies how institutions like monetary exchange credit arrangements or intermediation facilitate the exchange process

stabilisation policy rational expectations and price level versus inflation targeting a survey we survey literature comparing inflation targeting it and price level targeting pt as macroeconomic stabilisation policies our focus is on new keynesian models and areas that have seen significant developments since ambler s 2009 price level targeting and stabilisation policy a survey journal of economic surveys 23 5 974 997 survey optimal monetary policy the zero lower bound financial frictions and transition costs of adopting a pt regime ambler s conclusion that pt improves social welfare in new keynesian models is fairly robust but we note an interesting split in the literature pt consistently outperforms it in models where policymakers commit to simple taylor type rules but results in favour of pt when policymakers minimise loss functions are overturned with small deviations from the baseline model since the beneficial effects of pt appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy new keynesian we discuss survey and experimental evidence on rational expectations and the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of new keynesian models overall the evidence is not clear cut but we note that new keynesian models can pass formal statistical tests against macro data and that models with rational expectations outperform those with behavioural expectations i e heuristics in direct statistical tests we therefore argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to pt

book reviewcentral banking in theory and practice lionel robbins lectures by alan s blinder cambridge mass mit press 1998 pp 92 20 00

indivisibilities lotteries and monetary exchange we introduce lotteries randomized trading into search theoretic models of money in a model with indivisible goods and fiat money we show goods trade with probability 1 and money trades with probability where 1 iff buyers have sufficient bargaining power with divisible goods a nonrandom quantity q trades with probability 1 and again money trades with probability where 1 iff buyers have sufficient bargaining power moreover q never exceeds the efficient quantity not true without lotteries we consider several extensions designed to get commodities as well as money to trade with probability less than 1 and to illuminate the efficiency role of lotteries