the changing empirical definition of money a comment in a recent issue of this journal belongia and chalfant 1989 suggested that several groups of financial assets formed monthly economic monetary aggregates from january 1983 through february 1986 they based these findings on nonparametric revealed preference tests developed by varian 1982 1983 they implemented these tests using nominal assets data implementing these tests with nominal data is inconsistent with a neoclassical framework of consumer choice based on real variables we find that their use of nominal data led belongia and chalfant to obtain results different from those they would have obtained if they had used real assets data we reran their tests using real data and found that none of the monetary aggregates they identified can be shown to be consistent with the existence of an economic aggregate

parametric recoverability of preferences revealed preference theory is brought to bear on the problem of recovering approximate parametric preferences from consistent and inconsistent consumer choices we propose measures of the incompati

the demand for assets through a low interest rate environment asset demand is important in many areas of economics to investigate this we estimate a globally flexible dynamic fourier asset demand specification and calculate morishima elasticities of substit

bureaucratic behavior in the local public sector a revealed preference approach public sector bureaucratic utility is typically assumed to be a function ofbudget size or government employment although intuitively appealing thereare no definitive direct tests of the assumption to fill this gap thispaper exploits data that isolate resource allocation decisions made by localpublic sector bureaucrats we use revealed preference theory to find thatthe bureaucracy behaves as if bureaucratic utility is an increasingfunction of employment across government functions and public spending providing direct evidence justifying the popular assumption in theoreticalmodels of government behavior

beauty and the labor market the authors examine the impact of looks on earnings using interviewers ratings of respondents physical appearance plain people earn less than average looking people who earn less than the good looking the plainness penalty is 5 to 10 percent slightly larger than the beauty premium effects for men are at least as great as for women unattractive women have lower labor force participation rates and marry men with less human capital better looking people sort into occupations where beauty may be more productive but the impact of individuals looks is mostly independent of occupation suggesting the existence of pure employer discrimination copyright 1994 by american economic association

litigation risk and ipo underpricing abstract we examine the relation between risk and ipo underpricing and test two aspects of the litigation risk hypothesis 1 firms with higher litigation risk underprice their ipos by a greater amount as a form of insurance insurance effect and 2 higher underpricing lowers expected litigation costs deterrence effect to adjust for the endogeneity bias in previous studies we use a simultaneous equation framework evidence provides support for both aspects of the litigation risk hypothesis

money demand variability a demand systems approach this article tests the fourier flexible form on quarterly u s monetary data the data have been prescreened for consistency with the general axiom of revealed preference and subindexes are formed using the divisia approach in this article the global fourier model fits well although there is a potential problem of overfitting and certain data points exhibit behavior inconsistent with the model the elasticities are variable over time particularly around business cycle troughs it appears that financial asset demand surfaces are highly nonlinear and the many unsuccessful existing attempts to estimate money demand may not have worked well for this reason

stature and the standard of living research on the standard of living now emphasizes alternatives or supplements to the national income accounts this paper reviews the results of two decades of research using stature as a measure of health aspects of human welfare after comparing and contrasting stature with per capita income i consider height patterns discovered by economic historians that challenge traditional beliefs about the past including long term trends cycles in heights and the dreadfully small stature of slave children that was followed by catch up growth the paper concludes with comparisons to work in development economics and suggestions for research

which road leads to stable money demand this paper denies that the demand for money function is any more unstable than other demand functions and maintains that the controversies regarding unstable money demand are produce by poor methodology that is not shared by other areas of the field of economics when investigating demand function properties this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a comparison of nonparametric tests of weak separability for annual and quarterly data on consumption leisure and money among the most fundamental assumptions made in economics are utility maximization and the separability of the arguments in the representative consumer s utility function these assumptions are important for theoretical and empirical applications of economics in this article we present results from nonparametric tests of these assumptions of consumer behavior we find that utility maximization generally obtains with either annual or quarterly per capita data on consumption goods leisure and relatively liquid monetary assets annual data on consumption goods leisure and all monetary assets are consistent with utility maximization there is some evidence in support of using partial adjustment models when estimating quarterly data models of the demand for monetary assets further annual data on consumption goods and leisure and on liquid monetary assets meet the necessary and sufficient conditions for weak separability these results support the notion of a monetary aggregate more broadly based than cu

substitution between goods and leisure in a developing country the paper explores the substitutability between goods female leisure and male leisure we find that goods and leisure are not separable we then adapt the almost ideal demand system aids to include leisure in the system in the same manner as commodities the model is not sensitive to variations in the assumption of total time available for each individual s work and leisure results from sri lanka indicate the marginal propensity to consume leisure is quite high especially in rural areas this finding has important implications for transfer programs designed to raise food consumption a somewhat surprising complementarity between male and female leisure was also observed a number of goods were found to be complements to both male and female leisure

the importance of noncognitive skills lessons from the ged testing program it is common knowledge outside of academic journals that motivation tenacity trustworthiness and perseverance are important traits for success in life thomas edison wrote that genius is 1 percent inspiration and 99 percent perspiration most parents read the aesop fable of the tortoise and the hare to their young children at about the same time they read them the story of the little train that could numerous instances can be cited of high iq people who failed to achieve success in life because they lacked self discipline and low iq people who succeeded by virtue of persistence reliability and self discipline the value of trustworthiness has recently been demonstrated when market systems were extended to eastern european societies with traditions of corruption and deceit it is thus surprising that academic discussions of skill and skill formation almost exclusively focus on measures of cognitive ability and ignore noncognitive skills the early literature on human capital e g gary becker 1964 contrasted cognitive ability models of earnings with human capital models ignoring noncognitive traits entirely the signaling literature e g michael spence 1974 emphasized that education was a signal of a one dimensional ability usually interpreted as a cognitive skill most discussions of ability bias in the estimated return to education treat omitted ability as cognitive ability and attempt to proxy the missing ability by cognitive tests most assessments of school reforms stress the gain from reforms as measured by the ability of students to perform on a standardized achievement test widespread use of standardized achievement and ability tests for admissions and educational evaluation are premised on the belief that the skills that can be tested are essential for success in schooling a central premise of the educational testing movement since its inception much of the neglect of noncognitive skills in analyses of earnings schooling and other lifetime outcomes is due to the lack of any reliable measure of them many different personality and motivational traits are lumped into the category of noncognitive skills psychologists have developed batteries of tests to measure noncognitive skills e g robert sternberg 1985 these tests are used by companies to screen workers but are not yet used to ascertain college readiness or to evaluate the effectiveness of schools or reforms of schools the literature on cognitive tests ascertains that one dominant factor g summarizes cognitive tests and their effects on outcomes no single factor has yet emerged to date in the literature on noncognitive skills and it is unlikely that one will ever be found given the diversity of traits subsumed under the category of noncognitive skills studies by samuel bowles and herbert gintis 1976 rick edwards 1976 and roger klein et al 1991 demonstrate that job stability and dependability are traits most valued by employers as ascertained by supervisor ratings and questions of employers although they present no direct evidence on wages and educational t discussants susan mayer university of chicago cecilia rouse princeton university nan maxwell california state university hayward janet currie university of california los angeles

a dynamic asymptotically ideal model of money demand abstract we estimate a dynamic asymptotically ideal model of a system of money demand equations this specification allows incomplete portfolio adjustment we base our policy conclusions on morishima elasticities because as blackorby and russell 1989 show the allen uzawa elasticities can give misleading results we find that cash assets savings deposits and small time deposits are all substitutes for each other these results imply that monetary authorities should target a relatively broad monetary aggregate that includes these assets if policy is to have predictable effects on the economy

standard errors for elasticities a comparison of bootstrap and asymptotic standard errors this article compares two methods of deriving standard errors for elasticities in a linear expenditure demand system with first order autoregressive errors the first is the ordinary taylor series method and the second is efron s bootstrap in an example problem these two methods yielded similar values for the standard errors with the exception of the income elasticity standard errors for which the asymptotic standard errors were apparently too large by a factor of two

a semi nonparametric approach to the demand for uk monetary assets we estimate an asymptotically ideal model of the demand for uk personal sector monetary assets we use data that are consistent with utility maximizing behaviour and find that uk monetary assets are generally substitutes in use the estimated elasticities of substitution during the 1980s and the early 1990s indicate that a relatively broad monetary aggregate should be used in economic studies the results also suggest that any policy based on interest or user cost elasticities of substitution between financial assets should be based on the morishima elasticities as the allen uzawa calculation can give misleading results

monetary integration and currency substitution in the ems the case for a european monetary aggregate abstract this paper examines the phenomenon of cross currency substitution and the validity of monetary aggregation within the european monetary system using non parametric methods which exploit the relationship between intergroup substitution and separability the separability property is tested using the methodology developed by varian the nonparametric approach to demand analysis econometrica 50 945 974 1982 nonparametric tests of consumer behaviour review of economic studies 51 99 110 1983 and is violated in the case of most european countries suggesting that the hypothesis of zero currency substitution which forms the basis of national monetary aggregation should be rejected the results do however validate the use of monetary aggregates for the ems as a whole and i use a standard parametric demand for money approach to compare the performance of an ems divisia index with that of simple sum aggregates during the 1980s and 1990s

risky monetary aggregates for the uk and us abstract we extend the scope of monetary aggregation beyond capital certain assets that make up central bank data sets and identify groups of assets that form monetary aggregates composed of both capital certain and risky capital uncertain assets we construct monetary aggregates for the us and uk using a superlative index and relax a key assumption of the consumption capital asset pricing model ccapm a one year planning horizon by using forecasted returns on risky assets our new risky monetary aggregates perform well in var tests we recommended exploring risky assets as providers of liquidity services in future research on this topic

tests of microeconomic foundations of a north american common currency area the movement of some members of the european union towards a common currency area is likely to spark interest in other possible common currency areas one such area of interest is a north american common currency area in this paper some results from tests of microeconomic foundations of a north american common currency area are presented these results can be viewed as favourable for the formation of a north american common currency area jel classification f33 f36 tests des fondements micro economiques d une union monetaire en amerique du nord le deplacement de certains membres de l union europeenne vers une monnaie commune va vraisemblablement susciter de l interet pour ce genre d arrangement dans d autres parties du monde un de ces autres lieux ou il y a un interet pour une union monetaire est l amerique du nord dans ce texte on presente certains resultats de tests des fondements micro economiques d une zone monetaire commune en amerique du nord ces resultats peuvent etre consideres comme favorables a la formation d une union monetaire nord americaine

from the cradle to the labor market the effect of birth weight on adult outcomes lower birth weight babies have worse outcomes both short run in terms of one year mortality rates and longer run in terms of educational attainment and earnings however recent research has called into question whether birth weight itself is important or whether it simply reflects other hard to measure characteristics by applying within twin techniques using an unusually rich dataset from norway we examine the effects of birth weight on both short run and long run outcomes for the same cohorts we find that birth weight does matter despite short run twin fixed effects estimates that are much smaller than ols estimates the effects on longer run outcomes such as adult height iq earnings and education are significant and similar in magnitude to ols estimates

monetary aggregation and the neutrality of money zisimos koustas this article tests the long run neutrality of money proposition using quarterly u s data over the period from 1960 1 to 1996 2 and the methodology suggested by king and watson 1997 paying particular attention to the integration and cointegration properties of the variables comparisons are made among simple sum divisia and currency equivalent ce monetary aggregates using the anderson et al 1997a 1997b series of divisia and ce monetary aggregates jel e40 e50 c32 i introduction the aim of this article is to investigate a long run question about the role of money in monetary policy whether changes in the conduct of monetary policy influence the growth rate of output as lucas 1996 p 661 puts it so much thought has been devoted to this question and so much evidence is available that one might reasonably assume that it had been solved long ago but this is not the case in fact recently fisher and seater 1993 and king and watson 1997 contribute to the literature on testing quantity theoretic propositions by developing tests using recent advances in the theory of nonstationary regressors and show that meaningful long run neutrality and superneutrality tests can only be constructed if both nominal and real variables satisfy certain nonstationarity conditions and that much of the older literature violates these requirements in this paper in the spirit of serletis and koustas 1998 and koustas and serletis 1999 we test the long run neutrality and superneutrality of money using the king and watson 1997 methodology paying particular attention to the gains that can be achieved by rigorous use of microeconomic and aggregation theoretic foundations in the construction of money measures this is accomplished by making comparisons among simple sum divisia and currency equivalent ce monetary aggregates using the anderson et al 1997a 1997b data see anderson et al 1997a 1997b for more details we also pay attention to the integration and cointegration properties of the variables because meaningful neutrality and superneutrality tests critically depend on such properties the organization of the article is as follows the next section briefly discusses the problem of the definition aggregation of money in section iii we investigate the univariate time series properties of the variables as these properties are relevant for some problems of potential importance in the practical conduct of monetary policy as well as for estimation and hypothesis testing in section iv we test the long run neutrality and superneutrality of money propositions using the king and watson 1997 structural bivariate autoregressive methodology paying particular attention to the integration and cointegration properties of the data the final section concludes ii the many kinds of money the monetary aggregates currently in use by the federal reserve are simple sum indices in which all monetary components are assigned a constant and equal unitary weight this index is m in 1 m sigma sup n sub i 1 x sub i where x sub i is one of the n monetary components of the monetary aggregate m this summation index implies that all monetary components contribute equally to the money total and it views all components as dollar for dollar perfect substitutes there is no question that such an index represents an index of the stock of nominal monetary wealth but cannot in general represent a valid structural economic variable for the services of the quantity of money over the years there has been a steady stream of attempts at properly weighting monetary components within a simple sum aggregate with no theory however any weighting scheme is questionable barnett 1980 derived the theoretical linkage between monetary theory and aggregation and index number theory he applied economic aggregation and index number theory and constructed monetary aggregates based on diewert s 1976 class of superlative quantity index numbers

the role of insider influence in mutual to stock conversions using a sample of 347 demutualizing thrifts from 1991 to 2004 we show that the level of inside participation is not a traditional signal of firm performance we conclude that unanticipated inside participation reflects the incentives of insiders to reduce the size of the offer to influence the level of expected initial public offer ipo returns we find unanticipated inside participation is related to lower offer size and higher initial returns but we do not find a relationship between inside participation and post ipo performance

mixed integer programming revealed preference tests of utility maximization and weak separability of consumption leisure and money swofford and whitney 1987 1988 1994 investigated the validity of two key assumptions underlying representative agent models of macroeconomics these assumptions are utility maximization and weak separability using mixed integer programming we check revealed preference conditions for these assumptions we find that m1 money defined by friedman and schwartz 1963 and a broad aggregate are weakly separable we find that consumption goods and leisure and nondurables and services are weakly separable we find that m2 m3 and mzm are not weakly separable finally we find three categories of consumption durables nondurables and services do not form an aggregate

an empirical comparison of flexible demand system functional forms this paper compares the performance of eight frequently used flexible forms that are either 1 locally flexible 2 effectively globally regular or 3 asymptotically globally flexible results show that the functions with global properties generally perform better particularly those models having asymptotic properties results using us consumption data indicate substitutability among the components of consumption at most data points there is also some interesting substitution volatility around the time of recessions in the usa copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

the substitutability of equities and consumer durable goods a portfolio choice approach the stock market crash of october 1987 led many economists to lower their forecast of gnp growth for 1988 the rationale was that the loss of wealth that resulted from the crash would force asset holders to reduce their consumption expenditures yet a major slowdown in economic growth was not realized in the months following the crash gamer 11 explains this fact in terms of the life cycle hypothesis of consumption he argues that the potential adverse effect of stock market losses on planned consumption would be spread out over the entire lifetime of asset holders so that the immediate effect of the crash on the level

semi non parametric estimates of substitution for canadian monetary assets we estimate the dynamic fourier expenditure system to obtain consistent estimates of short run and long run morishima elasticities of substitution for canadian liquid assets we argue that the variability of the estimated elasticities and evidence of less than perfect substitution between monetary assets interferes with the successful use of simple sum aggre gates and traditional log linear money demand functions

demutualization determinants and consequences of the mutual holding company choice we investigate the determinants and consequences of the mutual holding company mhc structure that allows mutual thrifts to issue stock to outside shareholders while maintaining the mutual form capital constrained firms with greater profit opportunities are more likely to choose a full demutualization demonstrating that the mhc choice can be used to control for over and under investment costs during periods of greater regulatory constraints mhc firms have lower offer day returns than full demutualizations mhc firms are also less likely to be acquired as the mhc structure provides protection from the market for corporate control demonstrating a clear preference by minority shareholders for the elimination of the mhc structure the announcement of a second stage conversion generates a 12 return

bounding an economic monetary aggregate under nonhomothetic preferences we construct nonparametric bounds on true quantity indexes for the realistic case of nonhomothetic preferences these bounds do not require assumptions about the form of the underlying aggregator function we construct these bounds using monetary assets that meet necessary conditions for the existence of an aggregate we find that a tornqvist index of these monetary assets falls within the nonparametric bounds on true quantity indexes almost all of the time whereas a simple sum of these monetary assets falls outside these bounds more than one third of the time

stature skills and adult life outcomes evidence from indonesia abstractwe investigate the effect of height on earnings occupational choices and a subjective measure of wellbeing among indonesian men we explore the extent to which height captures the effects of endowments set before entry in the labour market physical and cognitive skills co determined with stature early in life do not explain much of the height earnings premium directly yet human capital more broadly including cognition educational attainment and other factors related to childhood conditions explains around half of the height premium and does so through occupational sorting indeed taller workers tend to have more education and educated workers tend to work in more lucrative occupations that require brain and social skills not brawn the unexplained share of the height earnings premium may reflect a specific role of stature on social interaction labour market advantages or self assurance we also find a height premium in happiness half of which simply accounts for the educational and e

the joint demand for health care leisure and commodities implications for health care finance and access in vietnam abstract this paper explores linkages between the demand for health care providers and the consumption of food non food goods and leisure in vietnam using a mixed continuous discrete dependent variable model cross price elasticities calculated from the model suggest there are strong substitution effects between health care leisure and certain commodities the model allows us to explore the implications of replacing user fees with alternative forms of health care finance such as commodity taxes in particular the results suggest financing public health care services with a non food sales tax rather than user fees would be more progressive and would improve access to care

nonparametric demand analysis of u k personal sector decisions on consumption leisure and monetary assets a reappraisal this paper utilizes a new data set to test for utility maximizing behavior and weakly separable subutility functions in the context of a utility function comprising durables nondurables services leisure and monetary asset holdings for the u k personal sector all the data sets analyzed demonstrated consistency with respect to utility maximizing behavior the weak separability results prove to be relatively invariant to the degree of aggregation over goods but highly sensitive to the assump tion made regarding the representative consumer per household scaling of the data produced a utility function that is weakly separable in goods services and leisure and in monetary assets

testing data for consistency with revealed preference the author develops a method of hypothesis testing for revealed preference tests this method is particularly well suited to tests of commonality of tastes or tests of preference stability he devises a metric based on an estimate of the fraction of expenditure wasted in maximizing utility if all consumers in the sample share the same utility function this metric increases in size with increases in the proportion of observations having different tastes and with increasing differences in tastes the author proposes bootstrap methods for estimating the distribution of the test statistic copyright 1995 by mit press

measuring substitution in monetary asset demand systems the allen elasticity of substitution aes is widely used to study monetary asset substitution and structural demand stability blackorby and russell showed that the aes is uninformative and that the morishima elasticity of substitution mes is the appropriate measure a point overlooked in the monetary literature use of improper measures can lead to incorrect inferences this article considers five alternative measures of substitution the aes the mes the hicksian and marshallian elasticities of demand and mundlak s unencountered but appealing constant cost elasticity of substitution selection of the substitution measure appropriate to respective research questions is addressed

admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area we use the fleissig and whitney fleissig a r whitney g a 2003 a new pc based test for varian s weak separability conditions journal of business and economics statistics 21 1 133 144 weak separability test to determine admissible levels of monetary aggregation for the euro area we find that the euro area monetary assets in m2 and m3 are weakly separable and construct admissible divisia monetary aggregates for these assets we show that real growth of the admissible divisia aggregates enters the euro area is curve positively and significantly for the period from 1980 to 2005 out of sample we show that divisia m2 and m3 appear to contain useful information for forecasting euro area inflation

the own price of money and a new channel of monetary transmission traditionally the effects of monetary policy actions on output are thought to be transmitted via monetary or credit channels real business cycle theory by contrast highlights the role of real price changes as a source of revisions in spending and production decisions motivated by the desire to focus on the effects of price changes in the monetary transmission mechanism this paper incorporates a direct measure of the real own price of money into an estimated vector autoregression and a calibrated real business cycle model consistent with the rbc view of the monetary transmission mechanism both approaches reveal that movements in the own price of money are strongly related to movements in output

the managerial regulatory and financial determinants of bank merger premiums this paper analyzes the managerial regulatory and financial determinants of us bank merger premiums we use both individual acquirer and target bank characteristics we also examine state regulation of acquirer and target banks from a geographically dispersed population allowing us specifically to test the effect of a varied state regulatory menu the study finds merger premiums to be related to the characteristics of both acquirer and target banks and the regulatory environments in both acquirer and target bank states we also find evidence that the separation of ownership and control in acquirer and target banks has a significant effect on merger premiums in the last decade the pace of mergers in the us banking industry has been impressive this growth in the number of bank mergers has largely been due to the changing economic and regulatory environment with the reduction in the severity of enforcing strict antitrust guidelines by the reagan administration and more importantly the gradual removal of geographical restrictions by individual states on bank expansion the environment for bank mergers has never been so conducive since the regulatory restrictions are likely to be further relaxed with an increasing number of states permitting interstate banking in the early 1990s the number and dollar value of bank mergers is certain to accelerate accordingly it is important to improve our understanding of bank mergers this paper examines the financial regulatory and managerial determinants of bank merger premiums in examining the financial determinants of the merger premiums we include the financial characteristics of the target banks and the franchise value of its banking market because bank mergers are carefully regulated by state laws we also analyze the regulation in the banks states we examine the state regulation of acquirer and target banks

height health and cognitive function at older ages research across a number of disciplines has highlighted the role of early life health and circumstance in determining health and economic outcomes at older ages nutrition in utero and in infancy may set the stage for the chronic disease burden that an individual will face in middle age david j barker 1998 barker et al 1989 johann eriksson et al 2001 childhood health may also have significant effects on economic outcomes in adulthood collectively a set of childhood health measures can account for a large fraction of the explained variance in employment and social status observed among a british cohort followed from birth into adulthood anne case angela fertig and christina paxson 2005

intertemporal preferences and labor supply in this paper the authors examine whether nonseparable preference structures ar e important in characterizing life cycle labor supply using longitud inal data on prime age males from the panel study of income dynamics they estimate a model of life cycle leisure and consumption under un certainty in which intertemporal preferences are allowed to be nonsep arable in leisure the model tests several alternative specifications considered in the literature they investigate the robustness of the ir findings to certain forms of population heterogeneity and types of model misspecification across alternative specifications the autho rs find that the standard assumption of intertemporally separable pre ferences for leisure is not consistent with the data copyright 1988 by the econometric society

a household based nonparametric test of demand theory a nonparametric test of demand theory determining the consistency of price expenditure data with the generalized axiom of revealed preference is applied to household macroeconomic data for the first time the fraction of consumption bundle comparisons that violate the generalized axiom of revealed preference is proposed as a summary statistic to indicate the consistency of a data set with revealed preference axioms this violation rate is calculated among consumption pairs with similar expenditures to increase the power of the test the results suggest that similar households consumption choices and budget constraints are generally consistent with the joint hypotheses of optimizing behavior and common preferences copyright 1995 by mit press

translog flexible functional forms and substitutability of monetary assets this article attempts to establish the nature of the relationship between monetary assets by estimating a sequence of four nested demand systems the generalized translog the basic translog the linear translog and the homothetic translog the principal attraction of the empirical work is that i am able to test separately for both homothetic and quasi homothetic preferences over monetary assets the tests reject both homotheticity and quasi homotheticity and thus consistency of the strotz gorman two stage optimization i also perform tests on economic theory to establish whether the parameter estimates are consistent with the utility maximizing hypothesis underlying the models these tests indicate that the generalized translog is the preferred model

financial determinants of bank takeovers note in recent years more takeovers have occurred in banking than in any other industry mergers acquisitions 1987 this activity resulted partly from liberalized laws affecting branch and interstate banking and partly from the number of failed banks t as more states liberalize their laws regarding banking structure and regional pacts takeovers of bank and nonbank financial institutions are expected to increase 2 thus understanding the determinants of the prices paid in bank takeovers is important to the large portion of the banking industry that is either a potential target or potential bidder or both greater knowledge of the determinants of purchase prices can also help shed light on commercial bank operations 3 several recent studies examine the determinants of bank merger pricing these studies tend to focus on the characteristics of the target and to downplay the characteristics of the acquiror these studies also tend to use a single proxy for each theoretical effect for example one measure of the target s earnings the individual studies are reviewed below but in general they find a positive relationship between purchase price and some measure of the target s potential growth and a negative relationship between purchase price and some measure of the ratio of the target s total assets to the acquiror s total assets other variables including those for the target s profitability are sometimes but not always statistically significant one difference between this study and prior studies is that this study places greater emphasis on acquiror related characteristics acquirors tend to pay a premium for a controlling interest in banks this premium suggests that the firm

curvature restrictions on flexible functional forms an application of the minflex laurent almost ideal demand system to the pattern of spanish demand 1954 1987 this article introduces a new demand model labeled minflex laurent almost ideal demand system which has been achieved by combining the flexible functional minflex laurent form with the price independent generalized logarithm expenditures structure introduced by muellbauer the model has been applied to analyze the aggregate demand behavior of final consumer goods in the spanish economy from 1954 to 1987 when the flexible functional form has been empirically tested the curvature requirements imposed by economic theory have been studied

ceo stock option awards and the timing of corporate voluntary disclosures abstract we investigate whether ceos manage the timing of their voluntary disclosures around stock option awards we conjecture that ceos manage investors expectations around award dates by delaying good news and rushing forward bad news for a sample of 2 039 ceo option awards by 572 firms with fixed award schedules we document changes in share prices and analyst earnings forecasts around option awards that are consistent with our conjecture we also provide more direct evidence based on management earnings forecasts issued prior to award dates our findings suggest that ceos make opportunistic voluntary disclosure decisions that maximize their stock option compensation

blowing up money the earnings penalty of smoking in the 1970s and the 21st century abstract we analyze the earnings penalty of smoking among swedish twins in two social contexts the 1970s when smoking was common and widely accepted and when there were relatively few tobacco laws aiming to reduce smoking and the 2000s when smoking had become more expensive stigmatizing and less common and when tobacco laws and regulations had intensified the results show that the short term earnings penalty of smoking was much higher in the 21st century than in the 1970s for men for women smokers had on average higher annual earnings compared to nonsmokers in the 1970s but lower annual earnings in the 2000s in the long run there was an earnings gap for men between never smokers and continuous smokers whereas there was a pronounced earnings bonus of smoking cessation for women the results emphasize the importance of social context and the long term horizon when evaluating the consequences of smoking for earnings

a revealed preference analysis of friedman and schwartz money in their seminal series of books friedman and schwartz concluded that the appropriate assets to aggregate into money are currency demand deposits and time deposits issued by commercial banks for this paper i used revealed preference analysis to test the validity of this conclusion i find that these financial assets pass tests for the existence of a monetary aggregate consistent with the economic theory of aggregation over goods for a short period after world war ii the data are consistent with a more broadly defined monetary aggregate a reputable index number like the divisia index must be employed to form these assets into an aggregate consistent with the economic theory of aggregation copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

signalling by underpricing in the ipo market abstract empirical evidence suggests the existence of hot issue markets for initial public offerings in certain periods and in certain industries new issues are underpriced and rationing occurs this paper develops a model consistent with this observation which assumes the firm itself best knows its prospects in certain circumstances firms with the most favorable prospects find it optimal to signal their type by underpricing their initial issue of shares and investors know that only the best can recoup the cost of this signal from subsequent issues

the demise of the mutual organizational form an investigation of the life insurance industry we investigate the role of organizational structure in financial services markets by examining the u s life insurance industry traditionally stock and mutual life insurers were equally represented but now the industry is mainly composed of stock firms we find operational efficiency access to capital and tax savings are important determinants for this shift the incentive to demutualize differs by the type of conversion full demutualization is chosen for efficiency and access to capital reasons and partial conversion using a mutual holding company is chosen for tax savings firm operational efficiency improves after conversion we also find the efficiency of the stock organizational form dominates that of the mutual structure during our sample period 1995 to 2004

a measure of rationality and welfare evidence showing that individual behavior often deviates from the classical principle of preference maximization has raised at least two important questions 1 how serious are the deviations 2 what is the best way to analyze choice behavior in order to extract information for the purpose of welfare analysis this paper addresses these questions by proposing a new way to identify the preference relation that is closest in terms of welfare loss to the revealed choice

the money multiplier simple sum divisia and innovation divisia monetary aggregates cointegration tests for the uk the possibility is investigated of establishing a cointegrating relationship between various competing monetary aggregates and a high powered money base for the uk 1977 1994 the aggregates are constructed from the bank of england s m4 cointegrating equations are found for all aggregates with little to choose between them and divisia being at least as good as its simple sum counterpart the ecm causality results are not as promising though they all suggest that high powered money is weakly exogenous the simple sum provides the best dynamic results closely followed by the divisia adjusted for implicit interest payments on cheque accounts

life cycle variations in the association between current and lifetime income replication and extension for sweden we apply haider and solon s generalized errors in variables model to swedish income tax data to produce estimates of the association between current and lifetime income our estimates demonstrate strong life cycle patterns this implies that the widespread use of current income as a proxy for lifetime income leads to inconsistent parameter estimates i e life cycle bias even when the proxy is used as the dependent variable estimates for comparable cohorts of swedish and american men demonstrate surprising similarities there are however significant gender and cohort differences in this association that lead to statistically significant and quantitatively meaningful differences in life cycle biases

underwriter price support and the ipo underpricing puzzle abstract this paper reassesses the apparent systematic underpricing of initial public offerings ipos investigation of the distribution of initial returns following ipos shows that positive mean initial returns may reflect the existence of a partially unobserved left negative tail moreover most ipos with zero one day returns subsequently fall in price suggesting that underwriter price support may account for the skewed distribution and hence the phenomenon of positive average initial ipo returns even if offering prices are set at expected market value this paper thus challenges the presumption underlying previous research that positive average initial ipo returns result primarily from deliberate underpricing

a box cox consumer demand system nesting the almost ideal model this article proposes a consumer demand system that has a generalized functional form characterized by the box cox transformation the new model offers a wider range of responses to both price and expenditure changes than the existing price independent generalized linear models including the almost ideal demand system even with these features its functional form is relatively simple and easy to interpret and implement an empirical illustration is given for japanese demand for nondurable goods and services the results show that the new model is preferable to the nested models in terms of relative explanatory power and producing reasonable elasticities

the dynamic laurent flexible form and the demand for money i derive the dynamic full laurent model to estimate economic models that assume a dynamic process the application in this paper is to use the dynamic full laurent to estimate a system of dynamic asset demand equations the main results are that the dynamic full laurent rejects its static version and the estimated elasticities are variable over time results from a monte carlo analysis using a dynamic data generating process show that the prediction errors from the dynamic full laurent are much smaller than those from the static version thus when the data are generated by a dynamic process inferences from the static full laurent model can be severely biased 1997 john wiley sons ltd

on nonparametric demand analysis abstract building on the work of afriat and varian a nonparametric analysis of consumption behavior is presented inner bound and outer bound representations of preferences are obtained that are consistent with both the data and consumer theory it is shown how a priori information on demand response can be incorporated in the analysis the approach generates estimates of price and income elasticities of demand an application to u s consumption data illustrates the usefulness of the method for predicting demand behavior as well as for welfare analysis

homothetic efficiency theory and applications we provide a nonparametric revealed preference approach to demand analysis based on homothetic efficiency homotheticity is widely assumed often implicitly because it is a convenient and often useful restriction however this assumption is rarely tested and data rarely satisfy testable conditions to overcome this we provide a way to estimate homothetic efficiency of consumption choices the method provides considerably higher discriminatory power against random behavior than the commonly used afriat efficiency we use experimental and household survey data to illustrate how our approach is useful for different empirical applications and can provide greater predictive success

divisia aggregation and substitutability among monetary assets in this paper the authors estimate the degree of substitutability among the services of money checkable deposits savings deposits and time deposits in a quasi homothetic translog utility framework for canada the four composites mentioned are formed by aggregating more basic assets such as checkable deposits at banks checkable deposits at trust companies etc traditionally the simple sum aggregation has been used in this context the authors investigate both this alternative and divisia aggregation of the assets they find a low degree of substitution among the services of monetary assets and provide some evidence favoring divisia aggregation over simple sum aggregation copyright 1986 by ohio state university press

the ethnic employment and income gap in sweden is skill or labor market discrimination the explanation this study uses a cognitive test score the swedish military enlistment test taken at age 18 to identify whether the ethnic employment and income gap in sweden is caused by a pre market skill gap and or ethnic discrimination the employment gap and income gap are estimated for males born in sweden with different ethnic backgrounds their parents were born in sweden or in southern europe or outside europe controlling for the cognitive test score does not affect the ethnic employment gap and for incomes the ethnic income gap almost disappears

the effect of adolescent experience on labor market outcomes the case of height taller workers receive a wage premium net of differences in family background the disparity is similar in magnitude to the race and gender gaps we exploit variation in an individual s height over time to explore how height affects wages controlling for teen height essentially eliminates the effect of adult height on wages for white men the teen height premium is not explained by differences in resources or endowments the teen height premium is partially mediated through participation in high school sports and clubs we estimate the monetary benefits of a medical treatment for children that increases height

nonparametric tests of utility maximization and weak separability for consumption leisure and money some of the most fundamental assumptions of economics are utility maximization and weak separability of the arguments in the represen tative consumer s utility function this paper contains results from nonparametric tests of these assumptions about consumer behavior the authors find that quarterly per capita data on consumption goods le isure and monetary assets are consistent with utility maximization further consumption goods and leisure meet necessary and sufficient conditions for weak separability additionally one grouping of relat ively liquid monetary assets meets the necessary conditions for weak separability they also test and find no evidence of homothetic prefe rences copyright 1987 by mit press

new indices of money supply and the flexible laurent demand system the article begins by surveying the existing results on the new divisia monetary aggregates charts display the differences in behavior between the divisia aggregates and the federal reserve s official simple sum monetary aggregates the article then compares system wide fit for the simple sum and divisia monetary aggregates when used as data in the joint estimation of a system of demand equations the demand system is derived from a new laurent expansion approximation to the reciprocal indirect utility function the laurent expansion provides a better behaved remainder term than that of the more commonly used taylor series the results favor the divisia aggregates

height and earnings the role of cognitive and noncognitive skills we use large scale register data on 450 000 swedish males who underwent mandatory military enlistment at age 18 and a subsample of 150 000 siblings to examine why tall people earn more we show the importance of both cognitive and noncognitive skills as well as family background and muscular strength for the height earnings relationship in addition we show that a substantial height premium remains after these factors have been accounted for which originates from very short people having low earnings this is mostly explained by the sorting of short people into low paid occupations which may indicate discrimination by stature

a trigonometric flexible consumer demand system this paper proposes the first ever empirical specification of a trigonometric demand system the new model is potentially useful because of some attractive features it is flexible amenable to exact aggregation over consumers possessed of trigonometric engel curves which can oscillate and able to have an unusually large regular region with comparisons between the new model and two other popular models an illustration is given for japanese demand for non durables and services the new model shows relatively gentle engel curves with an inflection point on each of them which seem reasonable given that aggregate expenditure is used in parameter estimation jel classification c51 d12 un systeme trigonometrique flexible de demande des consommateurs ce memoire propose une premiere specification empirique d un systeme de demande trigonometrique le nouveau modele est potentiellement utile a cause de certaines caracteristiques interessantes il est flexible se prete a l agregation exacte des consommateurs donne lieu a des courbes d engels trigonometriques qui peuvent osciller et couvrir une region reguliere singulierement vaste a partir de comparaisons entre le nouveau modele et deux autres modeles populaires on illustre ces avantages dans le cas de la demande japonaise pour les biens non durables et les services le nouveau modele revele des courbes d engels relativement douces avec un point d inflexion en chacune d elle ce qui semble raisonnable compte tenu du fait que la depense agregee est utilisee dans la calibration des parametres

are factor substitutions in hmo industry operations cost saving past research on the potentials for cost saving scale and scope economies in multiproduct hmo operations in the united states are incomplete in their economics of the underlying technology structure this article exploits the translog cost model estimates of all past studies of hmo production to infer the extent to which pairwise factor substitutions e g administrative services vs medical care resources e g hospital days physician services suggest potential for cost savings in groups and independent practice associations given the industry s nonhomothetic production over a 20 year period the conceptually valid morishima elasticity measure at constant output reveals limited cost saving potentials from factor interchange and input demands these opportunities differ for groups and ipas across medicare and non medicare products my findings add a timely and significant dimension to understanding potential cost savings in hmo operations policy suggestions and cost implications are rationalized in light of the declining medicare hmo enrollment and recent changes in factor input prices

the translog utility function and the demand for money in the united states in recent years considerable effort has been directed towards establishing the nature of the relationship between money and nearmonies but with mixed success the approaches vary from multi interest rate single equation studies to the careful simultaneous equations studies summarized and amended by feige and pearce 1977 and extended recently by donovan 1978 offenbacher 1979 and barnett 1980 the empirical results also vary with numerous studies favoring only one interest rate see the surveys in fisher 1978 1983 some claiming that a variety of entities are close substitutes for money e g chetty 1969 and others showing that weak substitution or even complementarity may be the result of the measurement of elasticities of substitution between money and a number of other assets e g feige and pearce 1977 offenbacher 1979 and barnett 1980 the debate seems to have overshadowed a second and equally intriguing issue which centers on the establishment of an acceptable definition of money the basic idea of this study is to take an approach that takes account of the different degrees of moneyness possessed by the various monetary assets this paper produces quantitative estimates of the degree of substitutability of other monetary assets for money in the context of a flexible functional form model with a

sorting by height education and economic outcomes of women in less developed countries abstracttaller height is commonly found to correlate with educational and economic outcomes most studies focus on a relationship to earnings and consider samples from individual countries this p

consumer theory and the demand for money the following sections are included introductionthe definition of moneythe microeconomic theory of a monetary economythe aggregation theoretic approach to money demandindex number theorythe links between aggregation theory index number theory and monetary theoryunderstanding the new divisia aggregatesthe optimal level of monetary subaggregationeconometric considerationsapproximating the monetary services subutility functionan exampleempirical dimensionsempirical comparisons of index numbersempirical results for the demand system approachextensionsconclusions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the pricing of initial public offerings a dynamic model with information production this paper presents an information theoretic model of ipo pricing in which insiders sell stock in both the ipo and the secondary market have private information about their firm s prospects and outsiders may engage in costly information production about the firm high value firms knowing they are going to pool with low value firms induce outsiders to engage in information production by underpricing which compensates outsiders for the cost of producing information the information is reflected in the secondary market price of equity giving a higher expected stock price for high value firms

the composition and construction of monetary aggregates an economic monetary aggregate is composed from a set of monetary goods that are at least weakly separable from other goods in the optimizing agent s utility function we construct such an aggregate using a divisia index number we demonstrate that through the middle of the 1980s forecasts of the inflation rate based on our economic monetary aggregate are superior to forecasts based on the simple sum monetary aggregates m1 or m2

are risky assets substitutes for monetary assets i introduction financial innovation over the past couple of decades has enhanced the liquidity of many financial assets particularly noncapital certain risky assets further financial assets previously not regarded as monetary assets such as mutual funds and particularly money market mutual funds now provide monetary services such as liquidity and transactions services l given the increased liquidity of such funds the question arises as to whether risky assets are substitutes for capital certain monetary assets if noncapital certain assets are indeed substitutes for capital certain assets and are also being used for transactions purposes then agents may be treating risky assets as money although this issue has been addressed in the united states in the context of the addition of bond funds to m2 by for example duca 1995 no such research has yet been conducted in the united kingdom including risky assets in the analysis contradicts the work of ando and shell 1975 spencer 1986 appendix i pp 184 93 and spencer 1994 broadly they argue that since some nonrisky assets provide monetary services and probability also liquidity individuals would not hold risky assets for these purposes 2 in contrast hicks 1935 states that falling transaction costs and rising wealth encourages individuals to increase the proportion of risky assets in portfolio holdings most studies generally assume that risky assets fail to provide significant monetary services and for example have been excluded from the asset demand analysis of barr and cuthbertson 1991a drake fleissig and swofford 1997 and money demand studies such as taylor 1987 belongia and chrystal 1991 drake and chrystal 1994 and drake 1996 alternatively barr and cuthbertson 1991b use only risky assets in their asset demand system analysis the degree of substitution between risky assets and capital certain assets is an empirical issue while noncapital certain risky assets mutual funds and other financial assets may well be becoming closer substitutes for what people are using as money they are in no way perfect substitutes for the highly liquid cash assets to evaluate the role of noncapital certain assets we construct a noncapital certain risky divisia aggregate consisting of equities government bonds and unit trusts the divisia index allows for less than perfect substitution between assets and weights component assets according to their differing degrees of moneyness which may vary over time due to many factors for example financial innovation see barnett 1980 this methodology has been widely applied to monetary aggregation and money demand studies in a number of countries as in belongia 1996 drake 1996 drake and chrystal 1997 and anderson jones and nesmith 1997 to determine whether risky assets are substitutes for capital certain assets we use two other divisia aggregates constructed from traditional measures of money the first of these is an aggregate of highly liquid zero yield cash assets given that the component assets all have zero own rates of return however divisia aggregation is equivalent in this case to simple summation the second aggregate is a divisia aggregate of interest bearing capital certain assets including risky assets complicates the analysis because the degree of risk aversion will affect the estimates of substitution between capital certain and noncapital certain assets thus we also analyze how different degrees of risk aversion affect the results the substitution relationship between assets is estimated from an asymptotically ideal model aim the choice of an aim is in line with the recommendation of barnett fisher and serletis 1992 that flexible systems of demand equations should be used that allow for nonlinear optimizing behavior by economic agents furthermore this paper can be seen as an extension of the recent application of this model to u

corporate bond market transaction costs and transparency using a complete record of u s over the counter otc secondary trades in corporate bonds we estimate average transaction costs as a function of trade size for each bond that traded more than nine times between january 2003 and january 2005 we find that transaction costs decrease significantly with trade size highly rated bonds recently issued bonds and bonds close to maturity have lower transaction costs than do other bonds costs are lower for bonds with transparent trade prices and they drop when the trace system starts to publicly disseminate their prices the results suggest that public traders benefit significantly from price transparency

the contribution of early life versus labour market factors to intergenerational income persistence a comparison of the uk and sweden we explore whether differences in intergenerational income mobility between the uk and sweden show up early in life finding stronger associations between parental income and birthweight height and school performance in the uk we investigate whether these differentials can account for the country difference in income mobility while differences in the associations in birthweight and height are too weak to matter school performance does account for a substantial part of this difference however country differences in the earnings returns to these skills are at least as important as the differences in the link between parental income and skills

regulatory incentives and the thrift crisis dividends mutual to stock conversions and financial distress during the 1980s insolvency of individual thrifts and the thrift deposit insurer created severe incentive problems lacking cash to close insolvent thrifts regulators induced nearly 10 billion of private capital to flow into the industry through mutual to stock conversions we test a theory of how regulators encouraged capitalimpaired mutual thrifts to convert by permitting them to pay dividends rather than rebuild capital we estimate the costs of this policy and interpret the 1991 federal deposit insurance corporation improvement act as requiring regulators to impose restraints on depository institutions parallel to debt covenants that prevent capital distributions by nonfinancial firms experiencing distress