distributed energy infrastructure paradigm community microgrids in a new institutional economics context abstract this paper provides a theoretical framework based on new institutional economics nie concepts to guide the development of community microgrids given limited application thus far of such energy systems this paper also draws on empirical studies and experiences from the planning and development of other public community infrastructure and utility services in the development of this framework it links an efficient ownership and governance structure with transactional characteristics such as asset idiosyncrasy frequency and uncertainty defined in section 3 1 the key role of the customers and the microgrid service provider and more specifically their bilateral monopoly relationship and its effects on the choice of institutional structure is highlighted the paper examines the optimum conditions for public private or hybrid financial ownership and for unified or network governance through long term contracting this allows ex ante investment uncertainty and ex post appropriation risks to be efficiently managed the analysis suggests that long term contract completeness future demand for electricity and level of uncertainty are the determining factors in the selection of institutional structure this has significant real world implications for the communities seeking to achieve electricity self sufficiency and environmental benefits through community microgrids service providers and other private or public actors

temporal aggregation in political budget cycles electoral cycles have been widely debated since the pioneering studies of the 1970s on monetary and fiscal policy 1 drazen sums up the evidence in terms of active fiscal policy and passive monetary policy while expansionary fiscal policy is the main impulse behind electoral cycles monetary policy has an accommodating role 2 recently there has been a flurry of empirical work on political budget cycles pbcs using cross country panels the most influential works concentrate on the budget surplus because it can capture both increases in expenditures and tax cuts before elections and is thus the most sensitive indicator of aggregate pbcs 3a drawback of these extant studies is their reliance on annual observations since elections take place between january and december annual data do not allow one to identify the election year precisely to get around this problem other schemes have been proposed for example by the rule of the semester the previous year is counted as the election year if elections take place before july 4 what are the consequences of temporal aggregation for the measurement of pbcs instead of being concentrated in the election year pre electoral effects may be spread out over the two years leading up to elections more important if the sign of policies is reversed after elections lower frequency data may mask pbcs because the effects in the election year cancel out as akhmedov and zhuravskaya point out in their country study of russia 5to illustrate the differences between using annual and quarterly data to identify the election year imagine that elections take place in june furthermore assume there is a pre electoral deterioration in the budget surplus surplus 1 during the four quarters running up to elections followed by an improvement surplus 1 the next four quarters in the calendar year in which elections take place the net effect on the budget surplus is zero elections are not always in june of course what happens if elections are evenly spread out over the year table 1 presents a simulation where y 0 is the calendar year of elections y 1 is the year before and y 1 is the year after for elections in the first quarter of the election year namely y 0 q 1 our textbook example of a pre electoral expansion in the deficit during the four quarters prior to elections followed by a contraction the next four quarters implies that the surplus equals 1 from y 1 q 2 to y 0 q 1 it equals 1 from y 0 q 2 to y 1 q 1 and it equals 0 otherwise when the budget surplus is at its average value normalized here at zero the same procedure is followed for elections in the other three quarters if we aggregate the effects by calendar year there is a serious underestimation of pbcs in the election year since pre electoral expansions are almost cancelled out by post electoral contractions leaving a net expansive effect that is only 25 percent of the total stimulus before elections the least affected by temporal aggregation are post electoral fiscal adjustments since 62 5 percent of the total effect is reflected the year after elections on the other hand if there were no post electoral fiscal adjustments the problem of temporal aggregation would be much less severe since 62 5 percent of the total expansive effect would be reflected the calendar year of elections and 37 5 percent the year before this paper tackles the issue of temporal aggregation in pbcs head on we build a cross country panel with annual and quarterly data from nineteen latin american countries and twenty member states of the organization for economic cooperation and development oecd over the 1980 2005 period 6 quarterly data allow us to identify the election year more precisely with annual data the election year is the calendar year in which elections take place with quarterly data the election year comprises the election quarter plus the three prior quarters we introduce two nonstandard features in our analysis

organisation and governance of urban energy systems district heating and cooling in the uk a number of uk urban authorities are developing combined heat and power chp with district heating and cooling dhc networks as a means to achieve local sustainable and affordable energy and to contribute to economic regeneration findings from case study research in three uk cities are used to explore the local energy governance and organisation lego models adopted in the context of privatised centralised energy markets local developers are reliant on sources of social capital to make systems work given limited support from public policy and limited access to finance local actors drawing on non local community energy and commercial and technical networks of expertise work to introduce the technology into strategic planning establish its legitimacy and the legitimacy of a form of multi organisation suited to numerous stakeholders secure finance negotiate risks and responsibilities and engage with energy markets designed for large scale centralised provision for dhc to make a fully effective contribution to uk sustainable urban energy a more supportive government policy framework offsetting the difficulties of a centralised energy market will be needed to maximise the benefit of locally knowledgeable action the policy framework must be responsive to the specificity of locally appropriate configurations of actors and material infrastructure

competitive search equilibrium in this paper i construct an equilibrium for markets with frictions which is competitive in the sense that all agents are price takers and maximize utility subject to a set of market parameters i show that the equilibrium allocation is socially optimal i also show how the competitive search equilibrium can be achieved if employers with vacancies can advertise publicly the wages they pay

the role of intermediaries in low carbon transitions empowering innovations to unlock district heating in the uk abstract the literature on socio technical transitions considers how technological innovations can be established within the context of an incumbent regime that is often resistant or inflexible to change strategic niche management is an approach to catalysing a transition to a new regime using protected niche spaces to enable development and experimentation with an innovation intermediary actors play an important role in establishing these niches as they facilitate knowledge sharing and build the wider networks and systems needed to support an innovation the influence of intermediaries within socio technical transitions and strategic niche management is still an under researched area in this paper we use a decision theatre research process to collect empirical evidence from a range of local stakeholders involved in establishing new district heating projects in the united kingdom uk this method carried out in a group workshop format enables understanding of the interactions between stakeholders throughout the stages of the district heating development process the study suggests that intermediaries can play a role in supporting niche empowering processes the existing institutional framework surrounding intermediary actors and the geographical scale at which they work within that framework are shown to be influential on actors agency to choose their approach to empowering an innovation the work highlights the potential for intermediaries to support the restructuring of this institutional framework to enable more radical stretch and transform empowering activities

scaling up local energy infrastructure an agent based model of the emergence of district heating networks abstract the potential contribution of local energy infrastructure such as heat networks to the transition to a low carbon economy is increasingly recognised in international national and municipal policy creating the policy environment to foster the scaling up of local energy infrastructure is however still challenging despite national policy action and local authority interest the growth of heat networks in uk cities remains slow techno economic energy system models commonly used to inform policy are not designed to address institutional and governance barriers we present an agent based model of heat network development in uk cities in which policy interventions aimed at the institutional and governance barriers faced by diverse actors can be explored three types of project instigators are included municipal commercial and community which have distinct decision heuristics and capabilities and follow a multi stage development process scenarios of policy interventions developed in a companion modelling approach indicate that the effect of interventions differs between actors depending on their capabilities successful interventions account for the specific motivations and capabilities of different actors provide a portfolio of support along the development process and recognise the important strategic role of local authorities in supporting low carbon energy infrastructure

a search theoretic approach to monetary economics the essential function of money is its role as a medium of exchange the authors formalize this idea using a search theoretic equilibrium model of the exchange process that captures the double coincidence of wants problem with pure barter one advantage of the framework described here is that it is very tractable the authors also show that the model can be used to addre ss some substantive issues in monetary economics including the potenti al welfare enhancing role of money the interaction between specializat ion and monetary exchange and the possibility of equilibria with multip le fiat currencies copyright 1993 by american economic association

the political economy of inflation and stabilization in developing countries the traditional literature on inflation in developing countries has focused on three main determinants of inflationary pressures a money creation b fiscal imbalances and c cost push elements while the first two factors have been emphasized by authors of a monetarist persuasion cost factors have played a crucial role in the structuralist theories developed during the 1950s and 1960s however more recent analyses on inflation and stabilization have shifted their attention away from traditional direct economic causes of inflation such as money creation toward political and institutional determinants of inflationary forces this new literature which has come to be known as the political economy approach to macroeconomic policy has built on some important insights of game theory and the theory of public choice trying to explain why some governments decide to run large fiscal deficits and to rely heavily on the inflation tax typically in answering these questions this recent strand of the literature has emphasized the role of political instability credibility reputation and political cycles 2 in spite of providing some important new insights into the determinants of inflation this new literature is subject to two limitations first until recently most of the contributions have been theoretical without providing empirical tests on their most important implications and second the emphasis has been almost exclusively on the industrialized countries ignoring the developing nations the purpose of this article is to discuss selectively some of the most important insights of this new literature on policy making from the developing countries perspective i will emphasize the policy implications of this approach to inflationary analysis and discuss some of the limited empirical results

electoral business cycles in oecd countries studies of oecd countries have generally failed to detect real economic expansions in the pre election period casting doubt on the existence of opportunistic political business cycles we develop a theory that predicts a substantial portion of the economy experiences a real decline in the pre election period specifically the political uncertainty created by elections induces private actors to postpone investments with high costs of reversal the resulting declines referred to as reverse electoral business cycles are larger the more competitive the electoral race and the greater the polarization between major parties we test these predictions using quarterly data on private fixed investment in ten oecd countries between 1975 and 2006 the results suggest that reverse electoral business cycles exist and as expected depend on electoral competitiveness and partisan polarization moreover simply by removing private fixed investment from gross domestic product gdp we uncover robust evidence of opportunistic cycles

inequality and real exchange rates kocherlakota and pistaferri 2007 describe two different models private information pareto optimal and incomplete markets of how households partially insure themselves against idiosyncratic shocks they demonstrate that the models differ in terms of their implications for real exchange rates in this paper we use data from a wide range of countries and document that there is a statististically significant relationship between real exchange rate growth and between country differences in the growth rates of right tail but not left tail inequality growth this finding is consistent with the private information pareto optimal model of partial insurance but not the incomplete markets model jel f31 d30 d91

elections and the timing of devaluations this paper presents a rational political budget cycle model where devaluation acts as a tax on consumption due to a cash in advance constraint competent governments can signal their competency by reducing the rate of devaluation prior to elections when voters also ignore the degree to which governments are opportunistic i e the extent to which they are willing to distort the economy for electoral gain an incompetent opportunistic incumbent can reduce the rate of devaluation in the run up to an election the main theoretical implication in either setup that the rate of devaluation is significantly higher in the months following an election is consistent with evidence drawn from 26 countries in latin america d 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

skill mismatch and unemployment in oecd countries marco manacorda this paper uses evidence on employment labour force and wage differentials by education from oecd countries to investigate the characteristics and the consequences of a skill biased shift in the structure of labour demand and supply the empirical analysis shows that there has been some increase in skill mismatch in a few oecd countries over the past two decades but this has not been a generalized phenomenon moreover the rise in mismatch cannot explain much of the rise in unemployment in continental europe while it does explain a significant proportion of the increase in the rate of joblessness in britain

temporary stabilization predetermined exchange rates the paper analyzes the impact of a stabilization policy based on a temporary reduction in the rate of devaluation against a background in which a constant rate of devaluation has no real effects it is shown that the temporary policy does and furthermore that the real effects tend to become bigger in absolute value as the horizon of the temporary policy is shortened the central discussion is carried out in terms of a one good cash in advance model with perfect capital mobility and ramsey type consumers results are extended to account for home goods and variable velocity the roles of capital mobility and banking liberalization are briefly discussed

equilibrium political budget cycles political business cycle theories generally rely on nominal rigidities and voter myopia this paper offers an equilibrium theory that preserves some basic insights from earlier models though with significant refinements the political budget cycle emphasized here is in fiscal policy rather than output and inflation it arises via a multidimensional signal process one can consider the welfare implications of proposals to mitigate the cycle and the effects of altering the electoral structure copyright 1990 by american economic association

energy supply and urban planning projects analysing tensions around district heating provision in a french eco district abstract through the analysis of energy supply choices this article explores the way in which energy priorities and their climate related features are incorporated into urban public policy these choices must take account of different factors as is the case with district heating which is justified as a vehicle of renewable energy while subject to pressure in eco districts because its techno economic balances are destabilised by falls in demand our study focuses particularly on the city of metz france which has chosen district heating as the primary source for provision for the municipal area and for its first eco district we analyse the tensions within these choices with particular attention to the way in which they are negotiated inside municipal departments and with the local energy operator this enables us to explore the tensions in defining the scale that governs decisions and the linkages between energy related and urban priorities

explaining the duration of exchange rate pegs abstract this paper is an empirical investigation of the duration of exchange rate pegs in 16 latin american countries and jamaica we identify factors that influence peg duration using logit analysis the real exchange rate and the level of international liquidity are significant determinants of the monthly likelihood of devaluation structural variables such as the openness of an economy and its geographical trade concentration and political variables such as changes in the executive also significantly affect the likelihood of a devaluation there is some evidence that the likelihood of a devaluation first rises and subsequently declines during the first year of a peg

the role of actor networks in the early stage mobilisation of low carbon heat networks abstract low carbon heat networks lchns offer great potential for carbon and heating cost reduction despite these benefits lchns provide for just two per cent of heat demand in the uk when estimates suggest they have the potential to provide for around 43 per cent these low levels of lchn provision are in stark contrast to the nordic nations which exemplify some of the highest quality and most extensive heat networks in the world it is within this context that the pioneer cities project the project was launched by the uk government to help local authorities overcome barriers to the deployment of lchns this paper reports the findings of an evaluation of this project drawing on 86 interviews across five local authorities analysed using elements of actor network theory ant the evaluation found that the project s success has been limited participating local authorities have encountered challenges regarding marketisation public sector retrenchment and inexperience in mobilising lchns these factors militate against the formation of the robust actor networks required to deploy lchns analysis using ant reveals insights into why lchns remain elusive in the uk and suggests that policy makers need to strengthen local authorities ability to lead and deliver complex infrastructure projects

more on the time consistency of monetary policy abstract we introduce costs of unexpected inflation in a general equilibrium monetary model by changing the timing of the constraints faced by consumers we show that in this environment monetary policy is still time inconsistent but the nature of the inconsistency is very different from the standard result found in the literature in particular we find that the government may find optimal to deviate by choosing inflation rates lower than expected by making a brief review of the monetary literature we argue that the model of this paper is more attractive than the ones proposed before to study the time consistency of optimal monetary policy

political stabilization cycles in high inflation economies abstract high inflation economies often exhibit stop go cycles of inflation rather than smooth inflationary processes this paper relates these stop go episodes of inflation to a political cycle the government can try to repress inflation until after the elections in order to increase the chances of being reelected this is modeled as a two period game of incomplete information where voters try to pick the most competent government and inflation which signals lack of competency can be lowered by the government in the short run through foreign debt accumulation several stabilization episodes such as the primavera plan in argentina and the cruzado plan in brazil are used to motivate the model

crisis politics in europe why austerity is easier to implement in some countries than in others when countries face balance of payments crises their policy responses vary widely this article argues that the choice between the two main options of internal adjustment i e austerity and stru

realising local government visions for developing district heating experiences from a learning country abstract district heating dh has an important role to play in enabling cities to transition to low carbon heating although schemes are commonplace in some countries in learning countries where building level technologies make up the majority of heating systems there are numerous barriers to introducing dh local governments are seen as key actors in helping to create a shared vision for dh amongst stakeholders this study uses interviews with stakeholders from a range of sectors in the uk an example of a learning country to examine the visions of local actors for developing dh and the types of national policy that would support local implementation of these visions the analysis shows that in engaging with dh development local governments seek multiple types of value realising this value will most likely happen by taking a long term planned approach to development in contrast national government policy is geared towards techno economic criteria and may lead to only a minority of potential sites being developed without realisation of wider social or environmental benefits aligned to local visions the work highlights the importance of local strategic planning enabled by aligned national policy in realising the full economic environmental and social benefits of dh

adaptability productivity and educational incentives in a matching model abstract we study the connections between the labour market and the education sector in a matching framework with ex post wage bargaining workers have multidimensional skills and the search market is segmented by technology education is a time consuming activity and determines jointly the scope or adaptability and intensity or productivity of individual skills we establish three main results first unemployment provides incentives to schooling by raising the need for adaptability second private returns to productivity are below social returns but no hold up phenomenon is involved third due to wage and congestion externalities private returns to adaptability exceed social returns as a consequence both over and under education may take place in equilibrium

governing sustainability transitions through business model innovation towards a systems understanding this paper examines the role of innovative business models in the transformation of socio technical systems focusing on decentralised energy technologies we explore business model innovation in the context of a transition towards a more sustainable energy system we conduct an empirical study of two energy services company esco models for the deployment of combined heat and power with district heating chp dh infrastructure in the uk based on these case studies we illustrate the different ways in which local authorities develop business models to create and capture value from more efficient resource use and to deploy sustainable technologies drawing from systems theories in the business model and socio technical literatures we analyse the interfaces between business models energy infrastructure and institutions we propose that a systems based approach to the analysis of business models as embedded in their socio technical contexts can offer new insights into the dynamics and governance of sustainability transitions

uk local authority engagement with the energy service company esco model key characteristics benefits limitations and considerations abstract this paper explores how some uk local authorities las have opted to engage with the energy service company esco model in a bid to enhance their influence over local energy system change and help them to deliver on their political public good objectives three common approaches to la esco model engagement are outlined including the 1 la owned arm s length model 2 private sector owned concession agreement model and 3 community owned and run model the la s decision to establish its own esco or alternatively enter into a partnership with another predominantly depends on its willingness to expose itself to risk the level of strategic control it desires and the resources it has at its disposal however the business case is contingent on the extent to which the national policy and regulatory framework facilitates and obligates las to play an active energy governance role stronger alignment of local and national energy agendas through communication and coordination between different governance actors could help to remove critical barriers to la esco engagement and their wider energy governance activities

elections exchange rates and reform in latin america abstract in this paper we study the link between real exchange rate rer depreciation and elections in latin america our contribution is threefold first we employ a statistical model that takes into account the pervasive conditional heteroskedasticity found in financial data and includes a wide range of macroeconomic variables as regressors second we test whether the wave of central bank reform that swept the region has had any effect on the existence or strength of the electoral cycle in exchange rates third we test an additional hypothesis namely that financial liberalization may also be an important variable explaining changes in electoral effects on the real exchange rate in a panel of 9 latin american countries with available macroeconomic data and a history of exogenous election dates we confirm the previous findings that real depreciation intensifies after elections even when modeling the significant conditional heteroskedasticity in these data we also show for the first time in the literature that post election exchange rates are significantly less predictable we go on to test whether central bank reform has influenced the way in which elections affect the rer in latin america if reform has been effective at reducing political manipulation of the exchange rate then any relationship we see between elections and the rer before central bank reform should be mitigated in the post reform era we find that the relationship disappears after reform and that post reform real exchange rates are also significantly less volatile finally we show that financial liberalization seems to have a stronger effect on the conditional variance of the rer than does central bank reform but reform has a stronger impact on the conditional mean

emerging in between the multi level governance of renewable energy in the english regions abstract analysis explains the emergence of a regional dimension to the multi level governance of renewable energy in england the case sits in a tense yet informative position between the two poles of ordered and messy multi level governance these tensions which are currently debilitating could be rendered more creative and fruitful if greater authority was devolved to the regions and if policy learning between the regions and the central government was institutionalised more deeply improved legitimacy and accountability mechanisms must accompany increased authority however english ambivalence over regionalisation generally means such changes are unlikely

electoral competition with informed and uninformed voters i present a model of electoral competition in which candidates raise campaign contributions by choosing policies that benefit interest groups and then expend those contributions to influence voters who are uninformed about the policies informed voters however vote based on those policies so candidates face a trade off between choosing a policy to generate funds to attract the uninformed vote and choosing a policy to attract the informed vote electoral equilibria are characterized for two categories of policies particularistic and collective in the case of particularistic policies the equilibrium policies of the candidates are separated if the proportion of uninformed voters is sufficiently high and the degree of separation is an increasing function of that proportion the model is extended to include the public financing of elections and incumbency advantages for the case of collective policies the candidates locate at the median of the ideal points of the informed voters and contributions are zero