the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

evidence of under investment in energy r d in the united states and the impact of federal policy investments in energy technology research and development r d and in associated human and institutional capacity are fundamental to our ability to respond to changing economic and environmental needs this paper uses data on r d investments and patent records to examine the relationship between expenditures on r d and innovation with a particular focus on the energy sector we observe that r d spending and patents both overall and in the energy sector have been highly correlated over the past two decades in the us in addition we observe that the r d intensity of the us energy sector is extremely low when compared to other sectors we argue that the data illustrates the critical role of public policy as evidenced by the impact of recent technology transfer related legislation on the total number and on the ownership of innovations resulting from federally sponsored r d we conclude that there has been a significant and sustained pattern of under investment in the us energy sector and that recent declines in energy r d exacerbate this situation innovation for the us energy infrastructure is also a significant driver of the international energy economy thus the spillover from us under investment detracts from the global capacity to respond to emerging risks such as global warming

optimizing the level of renewable electric r d expenditures using real options analysis abstract one of the primary objectives of the united states federal non hydro renewable electric r d program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies in order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric r d this paper uses real option pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices within the real options analysis framework the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies net of federal r d expenditures is estimated to be 30 6 billion of this value 86 can be attributed to past federal r d efforts and 14 can be attributed to future federal r d efforts assuming continued federal r d funding at 300 million yr in addition real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future r d funding levels increase this indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric r d funding is sub optimal

the undesirability of randomized income taxation under decreasing risk aversion abstract for the standard specification of the utilitarian optimal income tax problem with hidden characteristics the paper shows that randomized tax schemes are undesirable if preferences exhibit a property of weakly decreasing risk aversion according to the multidimensional risk aversion concept of hellwig hellwig m f 2004 risk aversion in the small and the large with multidimensional outcomes max planck institute for research on collective goods bonn preprint 2004 6 http www mpp rdg mpg de pdf dat 2005 23online pdf this property of decreasing risk aversion also implies that the optimal income tax schedule is unique and depends continuously on the data of the problem

on the sign of the optimum marginal income tax this paper studies a central aspect of optimal income taxation as modelled in mirrlees original paper on the topic identical leisure consumption preferences qualitatively homogeneous skills in production namely whether given concave utilitarianism alone the optimal marginal income tax will be non negative a well known positive answer to this question in weak inequality form was given in the said paper which however we show requires additive separability of individual utility in the ordinal and cardinal senses our main result here is to derive the required strict positivity of the marginal tax under weak conditions slightly wider than noninferiority of consumption and leisure with preferences otherwise arbitrary

potential information and target variables for uk monetary policy the relationship between traditional monetary policy goal variables nominal gdp real gpd and the inflation rate and a number of financial market variables is investigated the question examined is which if any of these financial market variables monetary aggregates interest rates and interest rate spreads are potentially useful as either information variables or intermediate targets while the implications concerning the usefulness of the financial variables considered are pessimistic concerning nominal gdp more robust relationships are found for real gdp and inflation the latter finding is of interest given the current uk monetary policy strategy of inflation targeting our results are however more supportive of the usefulness of several financial variables as information variables than as intermediate targets

money income prices and interest rates including data from the 1980s sharply weakens the postwar time series evidence indicating significant relationships between money however defined and nominal income or between money and either real income or prices separately focusing on data from 1970 onward destroys this evidence altogether evidence indicating cointegration of real income and real money balances with due allowance for the effect of interest rates also deteriorates when the sample extends through the 1980s a positive finding is that the spread between the commercial paper rate and the treasury bill rate consistently contains highly significant information about future movements in real income copyright 1992 by american economic association

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

energy research and r d indicators an lmdi decomposition analysis for the iea big 5 in energy research abstract the literature has always shown that there are two important factors in the improvement of a country s research output gross domestic product gdp and r d expenditures taking the discussion a step further and in an effort to provide policy recommendations on what is needed to boost research capacity this paper aims at decomposing the change in energy research papers of five countries australia canada germany uk and us into four factors gdp r d intensity ratio of total r d to gdp energy r d rate of return or productivity number of energy related papers per unit of energy r d expenditure and energy r d priority share of energy r d to total r d expenditure the findings show a general trend in the sign of the four effects on research for all five countries energy r d productivity energy r d priority and gdp are mostly found to be positive contributors while the r d intensity a negative one this pattern has exceptions that are more prominent during periods where economic growth is constrained for example during 2008 09 the results have policy implications not only for these five countries but also for developing countries low gdp that aim at contributing more to the energy related research output globally

technological learning and renewable energy costs implications for us renewable energy policy abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between current renewable energy technology costs and cumulative production research development and demonstration expenditures and other institutional influences combining the theoretical framework of learning by doing and developments in learning by searching with the fields of organizational learning and institutional economics offers a complete methodological framework to examine the underlying capital cost trajectory when developing electricity cost estimates used in energy policy planning models sensitivities of the learning rates for global wind and solar photovoltaic technologies to changes in the model parameters are tested the implications of the results indicate that institutional policy instruments play an important role for these technologies to achieve cost reductions and further market adoption

the changing structure of the us national innovation system implications for international conflict and cooperation in r d policy abstract the paper summarizes recent trends in the structure of the us national innovation system among these trends is a decline in r d spending by the federal government largely due to reductions in defense related r d spending another important shift in the profile of us r d spending is the reduction in the share of basic research funded by industry other policy related changes are the introduction of federal programs that have sought to strengthen civilian technology capabilities by subsidizing and promoting joint research and collaboration between us universities and industry and the federal laboratories and us industry the paper claims that sporadic efforts to limit the international dissemination of the results of publicly funded r d have in many cases been frustrated similar efforts to restrict foreign firms access to eu r d programs have had little effect it further concludes that the efforts to restrict foreign participation in us or eu publicly funded r d programs seem to be ill advised and infeasible considerable evidence suggests that the critical competitive weakness for both us and eu firms lie more in the translation of r d advances into commercial products rather than in the r d capabilities per se consequently the participation of non european firms in eu technology development projects and non us firms in publicly funded technology projects could convey powerful learning and demonstration benefits

bottom up estimation of industrial and public r d investment by technology in support of policy making the case of selected low carbon energy technologies abstract this paper discusses a bottom up approach to estimate the level of r d investment by technology in areas where data are scarce it develops a four step methodology for the estimation of corporate r d investments at technology level this approach can overcome gaps in existing data by combining publicly available information in a novel way even though it introduces some uncertainty this is illustrated for a set of low carbon energy technologies that were identified as key for meeting europe s long term energy and climate objectives by the european strategic energy technology plan the paper finds that the aggregated r d investments dedicated to these technologies amounted to 3 3 billion in the eu in 2007 including public funding from european union member states and at eu level and industrial research activities from companies with headquarters registered in the eu the results allow conclusions on the european energy research policy to be drawn such as the dominance of industrial funds and have provided significant input to the european policy making in this field the paper ends with suggestions on how to further enhance the accuracy of the approach and how to widen its application to other sectors

unintended consequences energy r d in a deregulated energy market abstract many advanced industrialized nations are substantially reducing their national public and private investments in energy research and development r d driven in part by changes occurring as a result of the deregulation of these nations energy sectors in particular funding for strategic energy r d aimed at developing future energy supply options eg fusion fission clean fossil energy renewable energy has been decreased substantially in both the public and private sectors in many of these nations these trends are now starting to be seen in the united states as it moves towards the deregulation of the nation s utilities the magnitude of the reductions in support for energy r d in the public and private sectors and the shift towards decidedly shorter term r d has profound implications for nations approaching deregulation though utility customers may be short term winners from the deregulation of utilities by paying less for energy a national failure to invest in energy r d is very likely to have long term negative impacts on national energy sectors the economies and environmental wellbeing

quantitative goals for monetary policy a quantile regression approach a recent paper by fatas et al 2006 indicates that formal monetary policy targets exchange rate money supply or inflation targets palpably decrease inflation in a sample of 40 countries the authors employ various least squares estimations which pick up the conditional average effect however there is wide inflation variability in the authors sample thus formal targets could have very different effects in high and low inflation countries accordingly we utilize the technique of quantile regression a method frequently used in labour economics we find in a sample of low and moderate inflation countries that formal targets exert no significant impact on low inflation nations this result is important for debates over formal targets such as whether the united states should adopt an inflation target there are costs and benefits in having formal targets and finding that targets do not decrease inflation when it is already moderate is an important piece of information to consider

interindustry technology flows and productivity growth a reexamination the relationship between productivity growth and r and d intensity is reexamined using detailed data for 193 us manufacturing industries and a breakdown of r and d into own product and process improvement oriented components and imported r and d from other industries a significant interindustry relationship between total factor productivity growth and r and d intensity is reconfirmed with used r and d having larger coefficients than own product r and d components but own product r and d is also significant and the explanatory power of the used r and d component rather than the embodied component imported from other industries thus the evidence for r and d spillovers remains tenuous 6 references 2 tables

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations are business cycles mainly the result of permanent shocks to productivity this paper uses a long run restriction implied by a large class of real business cycle models identifying permanent productivity shocks as shocks to the common stochastic trend in output consumption and investment to provide new evidence on this question econometric tests indicate that this common stochastic trend cointegration implication is consistent with postwar u s data however in systems with nominal variables the estimates of this common stochastic trend indicate that permanent productivity shocks typically explain less than half of the business cycle variability in output consumption and investment copyright 1991 by american economic association

solar feed in tariffs in a post grid parity world the role of risk investor diversity and business models over the past decade feed in tariffs have spurred significant deployment of solar photovoltaics in germany and other countries with recent cost trends several countries are approaching retail grid parity some policymakers conclude that now is the time to remove feed in tariffs as grid parity creates a self sustaining market where economically rational investors will invest even in the absence of government incentives recent experience in key european solar markets however shows that with the advent of grid parity and the reduction of feed in tariffs investment in new solar capacity has decreased rather than increased making it questionable whether low carbon energy policy targets will be reached we conduct a cross case study analysis of three pv markets germany italy and switzerland to investigate the role of feed in tariffs for the near and post grid parity stages of diffusion accounting for investor diversity and distinguishing between implications for revenue based and savings based business models we find that recent market trends are strongly driven by increased levels of risk especially policy risk and exposure to revenue risk we therefore suggest that relatively frugal but stable policy environments may be conducive to further growth of investment in photovoltaics and minimize cost to society

carbon markets and technological innovation this paper examines the effects of firm level innovation in carbon abatement technologies on optimal cap and trade schemes with and without price controls we characterize optimal cap and trade regulation with a price cap and a price floor and compare it to the special cases of pure taxation and a simple emissions cap innovation shifts the tradeoff between price and quantity based instruments towards quantitybased emissions trading schemes more specifically an increase in innovation effectiveness lowers the optimal emissions cap and leads to relaxed price controls unless the slope of the marginal environmental damage curve is small because of the decrease in the emissions cap innovation in abatement technologies can lead to a higher expected carbon price so as to provide sufficient incentives for private r d investments the expected carbon price decreases once innovative technologies are widely used

a reexamination of the optimal nonlinear income tax abstract this paper investigates mirrlees model of optimal income taxation it provides a concrete example of utility and density functions for which the solution to the usual first order model is not implementable i e and example where the first order approach does not work adding second order conditions leads to an extended model and to implementable solutions if these conditions are binding one gets a kink in the optimal net income schedule and bunching of individuals occurs the properties of an optimal nonlinear income tax are reexamined within the extended model

deregulation market competition and innovation of utilities evidence from japanese electric sector this paper explores the determinants of electric utility innovation and examines the impact of electric sector deregulation and market competition on it using a balanced panel database of nine japanese utilities from 1978 to 2014 both input r d expenditure and output patent application number and patent quality aspects of innovations are examined the empirical results indicate that deregulation and market competition decrease the former but increase the latter these results are followed by a discussion on why this scenario occurs the results also suggest that after deregulation utilities focus more on short term business oriented r d projects hence we call for governments to support long term public oriented and environmental research in the electric sector

u s energy research and development declining investment increasing need and the feasibility of expansion investment in energy research and development in the u s is declining despite calls for an enhancement of the nation s capacity for innovation to address environmental geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns we examine investments in research and development in the energy sector and observe broad based declines in funding since the mid 1990s the large reductions in investment by the private sector should be a particular area of concern for policy makers multiple measures of patenting activity reveal widespread declines in innovative activity that are correlated with research and development r d investment notably in the environmentally significant wind and solar areas trends in venture capital investment and fuel cell innovation are two promising cases that run counter to the overall trends in the sector we draw on prior work on the optimal level of energy r d to identify a range of values which would be adequate to address energy related concerns comparing simple scenarios based on this range to past public r d programs and industry investment data indicates that a five to ten fold increase in energy r d investment is both warranted and feasible

electricity sector liberalisation and innovation an analysis of the uk s patenting activities abstract liberalisation has had a marked effect on innovative activities in the electricity industry in particular electricity reforms have resulted in a reduction in r d spending in the sector r d and patenting activities are respectively regarded as innovative inputs to and outputs from technological progress the present paper examines the effect of the reforms on patenting activity in the uk electricity sector the results indicate that electricity related patents in non nuclear and renewable technologies have increased in the post liberalisation period we attribute this trend to the increased commercialisation of the sector while this development is positive we argue that a lasting decline in r d will in the longer run reduce technological progress and innovation in the sector in order to maintain the pace of innovation we discuss the need to design a new framework for innovation systems that is commensurate with the functioning and incentive mechanisms of a liberalised sector

interindustry r d spillovers rates of return and production in high tech industries this paper presents estimates of the productivity and factor bias effects of interindustry r d spillovers for five high tech industries each industry is distinguished as a separate spillover source the industries are each affected by r d spillovers and are themselves spillover sources thus a spillover network between the industries is estimated private and social rates of return to r d capital are calculated the private rates of return are generally greater than the returns to physical capital in addition the social rates of return are greater than the private rates the results show that there are significant differences between industries as to their importance as sources of r d spillovers this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a note on the continuity of incentive schedules abstract this note develops a simple geometric argument suggesting that for every tax schedule in mirrlees 1971 seminal model of optimal income taxation there exists a continuous and nondecreasing schedule that achieves the same welfare distribution granted the original schedule leaves every agent with at least one optimal choice if the original schedule is also upper semi continuous then continuity of the schedule can be obtained without affecting any agent s set of optimal choices alternatively these results can be interpreted in terms of a principal s incentive schedule for a single agent with unknown ability and preferences the results are derived under more general conditions than those in mirrlees 1971

impact of energy technology patents in china evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model abstract enhancing energy technology innovation performance which is widely measured by energy technology patents through energy technology research and development r d activities is a fundamental way to implement energy conservation and emission abatement this study analyzes the effects of r d investment activities economic growth and energy price on energy technology patents in 30 provinces of china over the period 1999 2013 several unit root tests indicate that all the above variables are generated by panel unit root processes and a panel cointegration model is confirmed among the variables in order to ensure the consistency of the estimators the fully modified ols fmols method is adopted and the results indicate that r d investment activities and economic growth have positive effects on energy technology patents while energy price has a negative effect however the panel error correction models indicate that the cointegration relationship helps to promote economic growth but it reduces r d investment and energy price in the short term therefore market oriented measures including financial support and technical transformation policies for the development of low carbon energy technologies an effective energy price mechanism especially the targeted fossil fuel subsidies and their die away mode are vital in promoting china s energy technology innovation