parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post bretton woods period abstract a common view among recent studies on purchasing power parity is that the post bretton woods period is far too short to reveal any significant parity reversion in individual series of real exchange rates is this really so the answer this study shows depends very much on the statistical test being used two efficient univariate unit root tests are applied to uncover parity reversion these tests require much shorter sample sizes than conventional tests to attain the same statistical power empirical results show that parity reversion can be unveiled over the modern float if an efficient unit root test is applied

national price levels purchasing power parity and cointegration a test of four high inflation economies abstract the time series properties of exchange rates and wholesale prices from four high inflation countries show some evidence in support of purchasing power parity tests for stationarity of real exchange rates and cointegration among price and exchange rate variables are presented for argentina brazil chile and israel during the 1970s and 1980s error correction models describe the mechanism of adjustment to long run equilibrium

the role of agriculture and its prerequisites in economic development a vision for foreign development assistance abstract the aim of this paper is to establish a vision for foreign development assistance based upon the evolution of thought and empirical evidence found in the development literature the paper spotlights the agricultural led approach the empirical record shows that agricultural growth had a more pronounced impact on increases in developing country income than did growth in the nonagricultural sector the reason for the differential impact is that developing countries focusing on agricultural development experienced more broad based income growth and increases in the demand for domestically produced goods whereas the developing countries promoting rapid industrialization experienced narrow based income growth with a demand pattern oriented toward nonfood and capital intensive products a precondition for agriculture to play its proper role is the existence of a conducive environment in which private enterprise can flourish developing country governments need to assume responsibility for the creation and maintenance of essential institutions government investments are required in education infrastructure and other areas where the commercial market is not capable of delivering critical services finally governments must responsibly manage the macroeconomy pursuing sustainable pricing policies and fiscal and monetary policies that are consistent with real equilibrium exchange rates

the relationship between gdp and electricity consumption in 10 asian countries the purpose of this study is to estimate the relationships between gdp and electricity consumption in 10 newly industrializing and developing asian countries using both single data sets and panel data procedures the empirical results from single data set indicate that the causality directions in the 10 asian countries are mixed while there is a uni directional short run causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption and a bi directional long run causality between electricity consumption and economic growth if the panel data procedure is implemented these empirical findings imply that electricity conservation policies through both rationalizing the electricity supply efficiency improvement to avoid the wastage of electricity and managing demand side to reduce the electricity consumption without affecting the end user benefits could be initiated without adverse effect on economic growth the findings on the long run relationship indicate that a sufficiently large supply of electricity can ensure that a higher level of economic growth

does agricultural growth in poor countries harm agricultural exporting rich countries abstract the commonly held view that agricultural exporting developed countries would lose from agricultural growth in less developed countries lcds is shown to be based on an incomplete argument it considers only the effects on ldc agricultural supply or at best only that and the first round effects of increased farmer incomes on the demand for tradables what also needs to be considered is the effect on the demand for nontradables and hence the second round effects of increased spending by producers of nontradables when all these effects are considered the positive correlations obtained between agricultural output growth in ldcs and agricultural imports from developed countries is not surprising it is then shown that selling or giving away agricultural research and management skills to developing countries can be beneficial to developed countries including agricultural exporters by setting out to do good they may end up also doing well

do real exchange rates contain a unit root evidence from turkish data this study explores whether the long run purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis holds for selected real exchange rates from turkish economy during the period 1982m1 2003m12 in addition to conventional unit root tests five different unit root test procedures have been applied including efficient point optimal tests extended m tests and gls detrended variants of df tests to four monthly real exchange rate series defined in terms of both producer and consumer price indices the countries analysed are the usa the uk germany and italy which are major trade partners of turkey mixed evidence is found for the long run ppp hypothesis when real exchange rate is defined in terms of german dm and italian lira however the empirical analysis reveals that the ppp hypothesis holds strongly in the long run for the uk and us based real exchange rates series using either ppi or cpi in corroboration with other studies in the literature the bias correlated half life estimates suggest relatively faster speeds of

the collapse of purchasing power parities during the 1970 s one of the striking facts concerning the relationship beiveen prices and exchange rates during the 1970 s has been the dismal performance of the predictions of the simple versions of the purchasing power parity doctrine ppp that doctrine in its absolute version states that the equilibrium exchange rate between domestic and foreign currencies equals the ratio of domestic to foreign price levels the relative version of the doctrine relates equilibrium changes in exchange rates to changes in the ratio of domestic to foreign prices during the 1970 s short run changes in exchange rates bore little relationship to short run differentials in national inflation rates and frequently divergences from purchasing power parities have been cumulative this paper reviews and analyzes the empirical record of exchange rates and prices during the 1970 s and the analysis is based on the experience of the dollar pound the dollar frecch franc and the dollar dm exchange rates section 2 presents the evidence on ppp during the 1970 s and contrasts it with the evidence from the 1920 s a period during which the doctrine held up reasonably well this analysis is relevant for assessing whether the flexible exchange rate system was successful in providing national economies with an added degree of insulation from foreign shocks and whether it provided policymakers with an added instrument for the conduct of macroeconomic policy the evidence regarding devia tions from purchasing power parities is also relevant for determining whether there is a case for managed float section 3 attempts to explain what went wrong with

causes of sprawl a portrait from space we study the extent to which u s urban development is sprawling and what determines differences in sprawl across space using remote sensing data to track the evolution of land use on a grid of 8 7 billion 30 30 meter cells we measure sprawl as the amount of undeveloped land surrounding an average urban dwelling the extent of sprawl remained roughly unchanged between 1976 and 1992 although it varied dramatically across metropolitan areas ground water availability temperate climate rugged terrain decentralized employment early public transport infrastructure uncertainty about metropolitan growth and unincorporated land in the urban fringe all increase sprawl

real exchange rates in the short medium and long run abstract this paper uses long horizon autocorrelations and variance ratio statistics to test for long term mean reversion in real exchange rates unlike most previous tests of this hypothesis the tests do reject a random walk for monthly data in the post bretton woods era however the statistics indicate that positively correlated innovations rather than mean reversion are the source of the rejection tests using annual data for the twentieth century also reject the random walk in this case however the rejection can be attributed to mean reversion and confirms that ppp is a long term phenomenon

relationship between agricultural growth and farm imports in ldcs a sims causality test based on 35 countries abstract previous empirical studies on the relationship between agricultural growth and farm imports in the ldcs suffer from serious methodological defects which to some extent may invalidate their results and interpretations this study used sims causality test to examine interactions between agricultural output and agricultural imports for 35 ldcs individually it was found that there was no causality from agricultural output to agricultural imports for a majority of countries under study for countries where agricultural growth did have a causal effect on agricultural imports the effect was positive in some countries and negative in others

assistance to expand agricultural production abstract bilateral and multilateral development assistance agencies have devoted major resources to programs to support more rapid growth of agricultural production in developing countries in this paper i review the effectiveness of assistance activities in land and water development agricultural research and extension the reform of land tenure arrangement and the development of agricultural credit institutions investments in several of these activities particularly land and water resource development and agricultural research have had relatively high rate of return yet in almost all areas there has been a continuous cycling of program priorities and thrusts there has been a persistent failure to learn from failure or from success in the future more attention needs to be given to the generation of socialscience knowledge for the design and reform of the institutional infrastructure needed to sustain agricultural development

the conditions for harmony between third world agricultural development and u s farm exports during the 1960s and 1970s the growth and welfare of u s agriculture has become increasingly dependent on rapidly expanding foreign demand the origin of import demand for food and feed grains has been significantly relocated away from the more developed countries and toward the centrally planned economies the oil exporting and newly industrialized countries nics and the less developed countries ldcs between 1961 63 and 1981 83 63 of the growth in net imports of food grains originated in the developing countries dcs of which 41 was in the ldcs shane for feed grains 49 of the growth in net imports originated in the dcs of which 35 was in the nics

farm development in poor countries the disputed consequences for u s farm trade a growing body of evidence suggests that farm development in poor countries is not necessarily menacing to u s farm trade to the contrary by helping to stimulate broadbased income growth in poor countries which is often followed by dietary enrichment and food import expansion farm development in poor countries can actually be beneficial to u s farm trade here we shall review some of the evidence which agricultural economists have recently put forward to support this paradoxical argument and we shall ask why this evidence has not yet been persuasive to the u s farm community in poor countries where incomes are low where diets are not yet rich and where a majority of citizens often depend upon farming for income and employment rapid agricultural development can stimulate the broad based income growth and eventually the industrial development usually necessary to turn loose pent up demands for dietary enrichment the paradoxical result can be that local food consumption may grow even more rapidly than local food production and the net farm imports of agriculturally successful developing countries can then actually increase to the presumed benefit of u s farmers a significant body of evidence has recently been assembled to document this paradoxical claim in 1979 bachman and paulino examined the trade consequences of rapid food production growth in sixteen developing countries and found that while the proportion of domestic food consumption satisfied by imports generally fell in these countries net imports of staple foods nonetheless increased annual net staple food imports in these agriculturally successful poor countries actually rose in volume by 133 between 1961 65 and 1974 76 bachman and paulino p 14 a similar pattern of rapid food import growth has more recently been documented by lee and shane in two developing countries malaysia and brazil often cited as threats to u s farm trade both of these coun

purchasing power parity over two centuries abstract this paper re examines the purchasing power parity hypothesis for the dollar sterling exchange rate using the two centuries of data from lothian and taylor lt 1996 real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries journal of political economy 104 3 488 509 unlike lt we conclude that the dollar sterling rer is nonstationary implying a rejection of the long run ppp hypothesis the differences in our conclusions are explained by 1 sensitivity of adf unit root tests to the choice of lag length and or 2 the presence of significant time trends in the adf or phillips perron unit root test equations

purchasing power parity in less developed and transition economies a review paper abstract the concept of purchasing power parity ppp has been the subject of numerous studies many of which have been unable to prove conclusively this core principle of international finance although industrialized countries have received most of the attention studies that focus on less developed and transition economies have also attained mixed results this study surveys trends in this branch of the literature highlighting the econometric advances that have sought to solve this puzzle while pointing out that more needs to be done to address the reasons that might cause ppp not to hold

the global spatial distribution of economic activity nature history and the role of trade we explore the role of natural characteristics in determining the worldwide spatial distribution of economic activity as proxied by lights at night observed across 240 000 grid cells a parsimonious set of 24 physical geography attributes explains 47 of worldwide variation and 35 of within country variation in lights we divide geographic characteristics into two groups those primarily important for agriculture and those primarily important for trade and confront a puzzle in examining within country variation in lights among countries that developed early agricultural variables incrementally explain over 6 times as much variation in lights as do trade variables while among late developing countries the ratio is only about 1 5 even though the latter group is far more dependent on agriculture correspondingly the marginal effects of agricultural variables as a group on lights are larger in absolute value and those for trade smaller for early developers than for late developers we show that this apparent puzzle is explained by persistence and the differential timing of technological shocks in the two sets of countries for early developers structural transformation due to rising agricultural productivity began when transport costs were still high so cities were localized in agricultural regions when transport costs fell these agglomerations persisted in late developing countries transport costs fell before structural transformation to exploit urban scale economies manufacturing agglomerated in relatively few often coastal locations consistent with this explanation countries that developed earlier are more spatially equal in their distribution of education and economic activity than late developers

real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar sterling and franc sterling real exchange rates we find strong evidence of mean reverting real exchange rate behavior using simple stationary autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data we easily outperform nonstationary real exchange rate models in dynamic forecasting exercises over the recent float such stationary univariate equations explain 60 80 percent of the in sample variation in real exchange rates although the degree of short run persistence may be high the econometric estimates imply a half life of shocks to the real exchange rate of about 6 years for dollar sterling and a little under 3 years for franc sterling

trends random walks and persistence an empirical study of disaggregated u s industrial production unit root and variance ratio tests are used to examine the trend properties and degree of persistence of industrial production in u s industries and comparable aggregates during the post world war ii period the evidence from unit root tests suggests that less than one half of these industries have output that may be characterized as a random walk the variance ratio test results generally support this conclusion consistent with standard economic theory fluctuations in durable goods industries are less persistent than in nondurable goods industries finally tests find relatively greater persistence in the aggregate industrial production data copyright 1992 by mit press

generalized long memory and mean reversion of the real exchange rate definitive evidence regarding a rapid mean reversion of the real exchange rate is not present when using standard linear methodology including unit root tests and fractional integration to consider the robustness of these results we use an encompassing model the gegenbauer autoregressive moving average garma model which nests as special cases the existing linear methods the garma model accommodates a complete notion of persistence and allows shocks to dissipate slowly in a cyclical manner we find evidence supporting a weak version of purchasing power parity where equilibrium errors are long memory with strongly persistent cycles however this new form of cyclical mean reversion is likely too slow to be economically meaningful the inability to find a strong equilibrium attractor process using a very general encompassing linear methodology provides support for the recent models that allow for a nonlinear attraction process and for shifting real exchange rate equilibria

power sector reform in developing countries mismatched agendas power sector reform is rapidly spreading across all corners of the developing world at an alarmingly rapid pace while the rationales for reform seem to have gained acceptance among the stakeholders the reform model and process are contested this paper examines the impacts of reform using the promised outcomes as a basis for analysis the ability of reform to meet the developmental challenges facing the reformers is explored it concludes that reform has had some achievements if conventional performance indicators are used but also questions the validity of some of these indicators reform has however not fulfilled many of its goals and the prevailing recipes are likely to leave developing countries socially and economically worse off than in the pre reform period progressive government intervention is needed to shift reform process towards a more responsible development path

lights camera income illuminating the national accounts household surveys debate gdp per capita and household survey means present conflicting pictures of the rate of economic development in emerging countries one of the areas in which the national accounts household surveys debate is key is the measurement of developing world poverty we propose a data driven method to assess the relative quality of gdp per capita and survey means by comparing them to the evolution of satellite recorded nighttime lights our main assumption which is robust to a variety of specification checks is that the measurement error in nighttime lights is unrelated to the measurement errors in either national accounts or survey means we obtain estimates of weights on national accounts and survey means in an optimal proxy for true income these weights are very large for national accounts and very modest for survey means we conclusively reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is greater than the optimal weight on national accounts and we generally fail to reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is zero additionally we provide evidence that national accounts are good indicators of desirable outcomes for the poor such as longer life expectancy better education and access to safe water and we show that surveys appear to perform worse in developing countries that are richer and that are growing faster therefore we interpret our results as providing support for estimates of world poverty that are based on national accounts jel code i32

autoregressive modelling and money income causality detection abstract a step wise procedure based on granger s concept of causality and abaike s final prediction error criterion is suggested as a practical means to identify the order of lags of each variable in a multivariate autoregressive process the model seems useful because it can serve as a reduced form formulation to avoid imposing often spurious or false restrictions of the model it also provides a reasonably powerful test of causality the idea is applied to u s postwar money and income data it is found that between m1 and gnp a bivariate feedback model fits the data best between m2 and gnp a one way causal model from money to income performs better diagnostic checks applied to our model seem to indicate the adequacy of our approach

are bilateral real exchange rates stationary evidence from lagrange multiplier unit root tests for india the paper examines the stationarity of india s real exchange rate vis a vis 16 of its major trading partner countries for the period 1960 2000 application of the conventional adf unit root test the lagrange multiplier lm unit root test with one structural break and the lm unit root test with two structural breaks provides evidence that india s exchange rate vis a vis 15 out of 16 countries is stationary implying support for purchasing power parity

a fractional cointegration analysis of purchasing power parity a generalized notion of cointegration called fractional cointegration is introduced to examine the long run purchasing power parity ppp hypothesis by allowing deviations from equilibrium to follow a fractionally integrated process the fractional cointegration analysis can capture a wider range of mean reversion behavior than standard cointegration analyses this gain is flexibility in modeling subtle mean reverting dynamics is found to be important for a proper evaluation of long run ppp empirical results based on historical data for the 1914 1989 period show that ppp reversion exists and can be characterized by a fractionally integrated process in three out of five countries studied the results support ppp as a long run phenomenon though significant short run deviations from ppp can exist

effects of increasing agricultural productivity in a multisectoral model for the philippines bautista r m 1986 effects of increasing agricultural productivity in a mul tisectoral model for the philippines agric econ 1 67 85 this paper investigates empirically the economy wide effects of agricultural productivity increases in the philippines reporting the results of a quantitative analysis based on a general equilibrium framework a multisectoral price endog enous model of the philippine economy is employed emphasizing not only agri culture but also other production sectors with which it closely interacts as well as the distinction between rural and urban households in their income genera tion and consumption patterns among other findings the differential effects on the real income of rural households vis a vis urban households arising from increased productivity in the various components of the agricultural production sector are striking the resulting improvements in the trade balance and national income among other macroeconomic variables are also relatively significant moreover there are significant differences in the economy wide effects among the four sectors of food and agriculture distinguished in the study particularly interesting is the highly favorable impact of rising productivity in the food pro cessing sector on agricultural crop production and rural income a linkage effect that has not received much attention in the development literature

cash and the economy evidence from india s demonetization we analyze a unique episode in the history of monetary economics the 2016 indian demonetization this policy made 86 of cash in circulation illegal tender overnight with new notes gradually introduced over the next several months we present a model of demonetization where agents hold cash both to satisfy a cash in advance constraint and for tax evasion purposes we test the predictions of the model in the cross section of indian districts using several novel data sets including the geographic distribution of demonetized and new notes for causal inference night light activity and employment surveys to measure economic activity including in the informal sector debit credit cards and e wallet transactions data and banking data on deposit and credit growth districts experiencing more severe demonetization had relative reductions in economic activity faster adoption of alternative payment technologies and lower bank credit growth the cross sectional responses cumulate to a contraction in aggregate employment and night lights based output due to the the cash shortage of at least 2 percentage points and of bank credit of 2 percentage points in 2016q4 relative to their counterfactual paths effects that dissipate over the next few months our analysis rejects monetary neutrality using a large scale natural experiment something that is still rare in the vast literature on the effects of monetary policy

causality between export growth and industrial development empirial evidence from the nics abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between export growth and industrial development in eight newly industrializing countries nics results of sims causality test show that for most of the nics there is a strong bidirectional causality between the growth of exports and industrial development these findings support the export led growth strategy in that expansion in exports not only promote the growth of national income but also lead to structural transformation of the developing countries

examining the economic impact of covid 19 in india through daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity abstract the covid 19 pandemic has disrupted economic activity in india adjusting policies to contain transmission while mitigating the economic impact requires an assessment of the economic situation in near real time and at high spatial granularity this paper shows that daily electricity consumption and monthly nighttime light intensity can proxy for economic activity in india energy consumption is compared with the predictions of a consumption model that explains 90 percent of the variation in normal times energy consumption declined strongly after a national lockdown was implemented on march 25 2020 and remained a quarter below normal levels throughout april it recovered subsequently but electricity consumption remained lower even in september not all states and union territories have been affected equally while electricity consumption halved in some it declined very little in others part of the heterogeneity is explained by the prevalence of covid 19 infections the share of manufacturing and return migration during the national lockdown higher covid 19 infection rates at the district level were associated with larger declines in nighttime light intensity without effectively reducing the risk of a covid 19 infection voluntary reductions of mobility will hence prevent a return to full economic potential even when restrictions are relaxed together daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity allow monitoring economic activity in near real time and high spatial granularity

parity reversion persistence in real exchange rates middle income country case this article investigates purchasing power parity ppp in the specific context of middle income countries to circumvent the low power of traditional stationarity tests augmented dickey fuller and phillips perron tests it performs variance ratio and fractional integration tests in addition to perron s test that accounts for potential structural changes in real exchange rate processes beyond estimating half life shocks to ppp this article attempts to explain these estimates using a set of country specific variables as suggested by economic theory the evidence suggests that reversion to parity tends to be faster in high inflation countries and that productivity improvement leads to a higher level of persistence openness to trade tends to reduce the extent of deviations from parity but this result does not appear to be statistically robust evidence shows also that deviations are less persistent under a fixed exchange rate regime and under unrestricted capital mobility

exchange rates and traded goods prices abstract this paper presents a partial equilibrium model of the determination of domestic and export prices by a monopolistic competitive firm the model stresses the role of exchange rate uncertainty and expectations the most important result of the analysis is that the stochastic properties of deviations from the law of one price are crucially affected by the currency of denomination of export prices using data on domestic and dollar export prices of japanese goods i find that deviations from the law of one price are due to exchange rate surprises but also to price staggering and ex ante price discrimination

aid food policy reform and u s agricultural interests in the third world global food economy one component of this new agricultural nationalism is a growing disenchantment with american aid to agriculture in the third world the new york times on 4 june 1987 for example featured the story world bank loans stir ire of u s farm groups in which a halfdozen leading agricultural organizations argued against aid and stimulating competition against american farmers this paper assesses the aid to agriculture question from a food policy perspective it seeks to answer two broad questions is food policy reform and agricultural growth in the third world in the interest of u s agriculture if so is aid and the conditions attached to it an effective means for achieving this reform these are immense topics and the rather bold series of propositions presented here provide only partial answers four clarifying comments seem necessary before proceeding with the analysis first the focus of this paper is on food policy and its reform such a concept is not necessarily synonymous with simply increasing agricultural output although reform typically leads to additional production food policy is instead a broader view that embraces consumption marketing and trade as well as production timmer falcon and pearson some types of policy reform might significantly improve consumption but leave agricultural production unaffected or even lowered for example many developing countries now have domestic prices higher than those in comparable world markets if reform means using world or border prices as the pricing norm an imposition of that norm would increase consumption but negatively affect farmer incentives and hence reduce the production of certain commodities

purchasing power parity over two centuries strengthening the case for real exchange rate stability a reply to cuddington and liang cuddington and liang 2000 purchasing power parity over two centuries journal of international money and finance 19 751 755 examine the long span of sterling dollar real exchange rate data of lothian and taylor 1996 real exchange rate behavior the recent float from the perspective of the past two centuries journal of political economy 104 488 509 and claim to reject long run purchasing power parity by fitting time trends or by considering very high order autoregresssive representations this reply demonstrates however that the central claims of lothian and taylor are in fact strengthened by the implications of cuddington and liang s analysis in that while the economic importance of introducing trend terms is slight this leads to a faster estimated speed of mean reversion c 2000 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved jel classification f31 f41 c22

long run purchasing power parity with short run data evidence with a null hypothesis of stationarity abstract we investigate long run purchasing power parity with data from the current floating exchange rate period by using tests where stationarity and cointegration are the null rather than the alternative hypotheses in most cases we cannot reject either the null hypothesis of stationarity of the real exchange rate or the null of cointegration between the nominal exchange rate and the domestic and foreign price levels this constitutes evidence of long run purchasing power parity because using the same tests we can reject the null of stationarity for the nominal exchange rate confirmation of the results is provided by a monte carlo study

a panel project on purchasing power parity mean reversion within and between countries abstract previous time series studies have shown evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates deviations from purchasing power parity ppp appear to have half lives of approximately four years however the long samples required for statistical significance are unavailable for most currencies and are potentially inappropriate because of regime changes in this study we re examine deviations from ppp using a panel of 150 countries and 45 annual post wwii observations our panel shows strong evidence of mean reversion that is similar to that from long time series ppp deviations are eroded at a rate of approximately 15 annually i e their half life is around four years such findings can be masked in time series data but are relatively easy to find in cross sections

measuring the persistence of deviations from purchasing power parity with a fractionally integrated star model abstract empirically elements of both fractional long memory and threshold non linearity are present in the real exchange rates of the g 7 countries against the us notably in the eu countries estimated half lives of deviations from ppp using median unbiased corrections to conventional linear autoregressive models corroborate existing evidence related to the ppp paradox as half lives range from at least four years to an infinite number of years in contrast for each eu country accounting for threshold non linearity results in estimated half lives that can be less than three years even with the allowance for fractional long memory

the persistence of volatility and stock market fluctuations this paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices it demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated implying that shocks to volatility do not persist these shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices since changes in volatility affect expected required rates of return for relatively short intervals these findings lead us to be skeptical of recent claims that the stock market s poor performance during the 1970 s can be explained by volatility induced increases in risk premia this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

electricity use and economic development abstract a study of the relationship between electricity use and economic development in over one hundred countries constituting over 99 of the global economy has been undertaken correlations between electricity consumption capita and gdp capita have been analysed and compared with those between total primary energy supply capita and gdp capita a supporting analysis has correlated the proportion of energy used in the form electricity the e e ratio with gdp capita the general conclusions of this research are that wealthy countries have a stronger correlation between electricity use and wealth creation than do poor countries and that for the global economy as a whole there is a stronger correlation between electricity use and wealth creation than there is between total energy use and wealth the study also shows that in wealthy countries the increase in wealth over time correlates with an increase in the e e ratio the results imply that the energy ratio toe should be replaced by the electricity ratio kwh as a development indicator and more precisely by the e e ratio kwh toe

exports and japanese economic development abstract the granger causality test used in this paper indicates that japanese growth in the prewar period was caused by the growth of the labor force and improvements in agricultural productivity in the postwar period growth in exports labor force and agricultural productivity caused output growth

searching for stationarity purchasing power parity under the current float abstract using panel data methods we investigate long run purchasing power parity by testing for unit roots in real exchange rates of industrial countries under the current float the evidence against the unit root hypothesis is stronger for larger than for smaller panels for monthly than for quarterly data and when the german mark rather than the united states dollar is used as the base currency while we find that accounting for serial correlation considerably weakens the evidence against the unit root null the results as a whole are consistent with long run purchasing power parity

the overvaluation of purchasing power parity abstract recent panel studies of purchasing power parity have reported strong evidence of mean reversion in real exchange rates however these studies fail to control for cross sectional dependence in the data this failure has dramatic consequences raising the significance level of tests with a nominal size of 5 percent to as much as 50 percent it is shown in this paper that controlling for cross sectional dependence no evidence against the random walk null can be found in panels of up to 64 real exchange rates this finding cannot be attributed to low power as there is ample power in panels of this size to reject the unit root null