renewable to total electricity consumption ratio estimating the permanent or transitory fluctuations based on flexible fourier stationarity and unit root tests abstract this paper examines the stationarity properties of the renewable to total electricity consumption ratio for this purpose we use becker et al s 2006 flexible fourier stationarity test as a benchmark and the recent advanced fourier adf unit root test for 90 countries over the period 1980 2011 the results of the first test document the stationarity of the renewable to total electricity consumption ratio for 65 countries from different geographic areas namely africa america asia pacific and europe however when validated the fourier adf test shows that the null hypothesis of unit root is rejected in all the cases except for the united kingdom the fact that the stationarity in the share of renewable to total electricity consumption is documented by the new proposed more powerful tests does not necessarily mean that the renewable energy policies are ineffective as the previous literature states a wide range of elements might influence the stationarity or non stationarity of this ratio however our findings are important from the modeling perspective as the empirical studies on renewable energy can produce reliable results and use appropriate techniques for modeling and forecasting only if the stationarity or non stationarity is correctly documented

time varying smooth transition autoregressive models nonlinear regime switching behavior and structural change are often perceived as competing alternatives to linearity in this article we study the so called time varying smooth transition autoregressive tv star model which can be used both for describing simultaneous nonlinearity and structural change and for distinguishing between these features two modeling strategies for empirical specification of tv star models are developed monte carlo simulations show that neither of the two strategies dominates the other a specific to general to specific procedure is best suited for obtaining a first impression of the importance of nonlinearity and or structural change for a particular time series a specific to general procedure is most useful in careful specification of a model with nonlinear and or time varying properties an empirical application to a large dataset of u s macroeconomic time series illustrates the relative merits of both modeling strategies

are there multiple bubbles in the ethanol gasoline price ratio of brazil this paper tests for the existence of bubbles in the ethanol gasoline price ratio in brazil from 2000 to 2012 using right tailed adf tests results suggest the existence of two bubbles one which has already burst during the re election of president lula and one which has been ongoing since 2010 thus corroborating empirical and anecdotal evidence in the brazilian sugarcane industry freezing gasoline prices not only depressed ethanol prices but also depressed investments in new sugarcane crops and distillation plants

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

crescimento e desigualdade prosperidade versus armadilhas da pobreza no desenvolvimento economico dos estados brasileiros it presents a reflection about the distributive conflict that exists in scenery with social stratification and its eects for the economic development for brazilian states between 1996 and 2001 the theoretical reference links the endogenous growth models driven by externalities with structural elements of the interpretation of the productive transformation with equity the estimatives of dynamic models and simultaneous equations for panel data taken highlights the disparities between the brazilian states these were long term eect on the decelerator economic growth rates a combination of factors that deepens inequalities as real trap

what is fractional integration a simple construction that will be referred to as an error duration model is shown to generate fractional integration and long memory an error duration representation also exists for many familiar arma models making error duration an alternative to autoregression for explaining dynamic persistence in economic variables the results lead to a straightforward procedure for simulating fractional integration and establish a connection between fractional integration and common notions of structural change two examples show how the error duration model could account for fractional integration in aggregate employment and in asset price volatility

revisited are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary new evidence from a panel suradf approach abstract this paper explores whether the hypothesis of energy consumption stationarity is supported in different regions the stationarity properties indicate that the impact of a reduction in energy consumption or a realignment policy is only temporary and over time the series will revert back to the trend path this paper first applies the panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented dickey fuller panel suradf test developed by breuer et al breuer j b mcnown r wallace m s 2001 misleading inferences from panel unit root tests with an illustration from purchasing power parity review of international economics 9 3 482 493 which allows us to account for possible cross sectional effects and to identify how many and which members of the panel contain a unit root the main conclusion is that the stationarity of energy consumption will be affected by the differences among the five regions made up of 84 countries during the period 1971 2003 similar conclusions are reached when we analyze country groups based on levels of development moreover the results reveal that conventional panel unit root tests can lead to misleading inferences which are biased towards stationarity even if only one series in the panel is strongly stationary lastly some policy implications emerge from our results

disaggregate energy consumption employment and income in turkey the purpose of this paper is to contribute to literature on energy consumption and economic growth relationship by examining how much of the variance in national income growth can be explained by the growth of different sources of energy consumption and employment in turkey we use the recently developed generalized forecast error variance decomposition technique of koop et al j econom 74 1996 119 and pesaran and shin econ lett 58 1998 17 to determine the information content of the growth rate of energy consumption waste seems to have the largest initial impact followed by oil however over a 3 year horizon lignite appears to explain the largest forecast error variance of gdp the total energy consumption explains 21 of forecast error variance of gdp energy consumption appears to be almost as important as employment in turkey therefore policy makers may be interested in identifying the energy dependencies of economic growth in allocating the energy investment budget

persistence in natural gas consumption in the us an unobserved component model abstract this article re examines the persistence in natural gas consumption using an alternative methodology in particular we report estimates of an unobserved components model in which hysteresis exists if cyclical and natural gas consumptions do not evolve independently in addition this framework is also extended by using the nonlinear approach in which nonlinearities are introduced by allowing past cyclical component to have a different impact on the natural component depending on the regime in a linear framework our results seem to indicate that hysteresis does not exist however when non linearity is taken into account we provide evidence in favor of hysteresis in natural gas consumption when the variations in natural gas consumption are above the threshold value we also selectively survey the empirical literature that examines the long term properties of energy series in order to put our contribution in perspective

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

are fluctuations in coal consumption per capita temporary evidence from developed and developing economies abstract this paper investigates the unit root properties of coal consumption per capita for the 47 developed and developing countries for 1965 2010 period to examine the stationary properties of coal consumption per capita lagrange multiplier lm unit root test with one break and two breaks crash model has been utilized according to empirical results the coal consumption is stationary in almost all the countries analyzed thus if the coal consumption is mean or trend reverting then it follows that the series will return to its mean value or trend path and it might be possible to forecast future movements in the coal consumption based on past behaviors of the series for the policy makers it is not necessary to pay attention to coal consumption excepting for indian and italian however for the researchers it is important to take into account the stationarity property of coal consumption and also structural breaks should be modeled in their future studies

oil prices inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated var model for the g 7 countries sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries moreover the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries in this paper a structural cointegrated var model has been considered for the g 7 countries in order to study the direct effects of oil price shocks on output and prices and the reaction of monetary variables to external shocks our results can be summarized as follows i a stationary money demand as suggested by the classic theory of money can be identified for most countries ii according to the estimated coefficients of the structural part of the model for all countries except japan and u k the null hypothesis of an influence of oil prices on the inflation rate cannot be rejected inflation rate shocks are transmitted to the real economy by increasing interest rates iii impulse response analysis suggests for most countries the existence of an instantaneous temporary effect of oil price innovations on prices iv impulse response functions indicate different monetary policy reactions to inflationary and growth shocks v the simulation exercises directed to estimate the total impact of the 1990 oil price shock indicate that for some countries u s a significant part of the effects of the oil price shock is due to the monetary policy reaction function for other countries canada france and italy however the total impact is offset at least in part by an easing of monetary conditions

are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption in malaysia permanent or temporary evidence from lm unit root tests with structural breaks abstract the objective of this paper is to examine whether energy consumption in malaysia disaggregated by sector and type is stationary or contains a unit root to realize our objective we apply the lagrange multiplier lm family of unit root tests with up to two structural breaks depending on the decision rule for selecting between results in the no break one break and two break cases we find that energy consumption is stationary for between 50 per cent and 70 per cent of the disaggregated energy series and between 25 per cent and 50 per cent of sectors implications for the malaysian government s attempts to reduce fossil fuel consumption are discussed

are fluctuations in energy consumption transitory or permanent evidence from a fourier lm unit root test abstract in this study we employ a recently introduced unit root test with a fourier function that is capable of capturing the unknown nature of structural breaks to reexamine the stationarity properties of energy consumption per capita of 109 countries over the period 1960 2011 the results of the fourier lagrange multiplier unit root test show that the energy consumption per capita for algeria australia benin bolivia canada costa rica denmark egypt greece guatemala hong kong ireland jordan korea democratic republic mexico myanmar the netherlands new zealand oman paraguay qatar singapore tanzania the united states and vietnam is stationary indicating that energy demand management policies will not be effective on energy consumption in the long term in addition to this since the energy consumption in these countries does not contain a unit root future movements in energy consumption can be predicted by employing historical behaviors

revenue substitution how foreign aid inflows moderate the effect of bilateral trade pressures on labor rights summary this paper investigates how foreign aid inflows moderate bilateral trade based pressures on the exporting countries labor rights because aid provides additional resources to recipient governments it reduces the importance aid recipient governments attach to the preferences of their export partners consequently aid inadvertently moderates the leverage exercised by importing countries on the governments of exporting developing countries our analysis of a panel of 91 aid recipient countries for the period 1985 2002 lends support to the revenue substitution hypothesis when aid levels are low bilateral trade based pressures are associated with improved labor rights as aid levels rise however the effect loses significance

convergence in per capita energy use among oecd countries abstract unlike previous studies which mainly focus on the integration properties of energy consumption and production this study examines the convergence of per capita energy use among 25 oecd countries over the period 1960 to 2010 in particular newly developed lm and rals lm unit root tests with allowance for two endogenously determined structural breaks are employed the results indicate significant support for per capita energy use convergence among oecd countries

are fluctuations in oil consumption permanent or transitory evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests abstract this paper examines the integration properties of the total oil consumption in 57 countries for the period of 1965 2012 a combination of new and powerful linear and nonlinear stationarity tests are employed to achieve the objectives of the study we find that the oil consumption series in 21 countries follow a nonlinearity path while those in the other countries are linear in nature evidence of the presence of a unit root is found for the total oil consumption series in 38 countries while the series is stationary in the remaining 19 countries an important insight is that the blueprints that were designed to reduce oil consumption are likely to have a permanent effect in most of the countries

elasticidade da pobreza em relacao a renda media e a desigualdade no brasil e nas unidades da federacao the paper shows how to compute the elasticities of poverty measures the poors head count ratio sen s poverty index and the measure of foster greer and thorbecke in relation to the mean income and in relation to the gini index g assuming that the income distribution is lognormal analysing how these poverty elasticities vary as functions of and g the elasticities of the poors head count ratio are computed for brazil and its states in 1999 considering the distribution of per capita household income comparing the results with those obtained by marinho and soares 2003 with other methodology the two estimates show very similar patterns of variation between brazilian states the obvious advantage of the method used in this paper is the possibility to compute the elasticities using only the values of and g for an income distribution the elasticities are also computed for 2001 and 2002

u s disaggregated renewable energy consumption persistence and long memory behavior abstract this study examines the degree of time persistence in u s disaggregated renewable energy consumption hydropower geothermal solar wind wood waste and biofuels using innovative fractional integration and autoregressive models with monthly data for the period 1994 2 to 2011 10 the results indicate that in the case of hydropower solar wind waste and biofuels the estimates of fractional integration are higher than 0 5 but less than 1 0 implying nonstationary but mean reverting behavior in the case of geothermal and waste the estimates of fractional integration are around 0 5 and in the boundary case between stationarity and nonstationarity for wood the estimate of fractional integration is significantly smaller than 0 5 and thus showing stationary behavior with long memory behavior furthermore the study incorporates the presence of breaks in the data with the absence of breaks in hydropower geothermal solar wind wood and biofuels but a single break in the case of waste due to the inclusion of non renewable waste from non biogenic sources through 2000 the results reveal that u s disaggregated renewable energy consumption measures are better explained in terms of a long memory model that incorporates persistence components and seasonality

are oil shocks permanent or temporary panel data evidence from crude oil and ngl production in 60 countries this paper examines the unit root properties of crude oil production for 60 countries employing a range of panel data unit root tests for the period 1971 to 2003 the study first employs a number of panel data tests that do not accommodate structural breaks and then proceeds to apply the lagrange multiplier lm panel unit root test with one structural break the results of the panel data tests without a structural break are inconclusive with at best mixed support for joint stationarity the findings from the lm panel unit root test with a structural break however are conclusive suggesting that for a world panel and smaller regional based panels crude oil and ngl production are jointly stationary

evidence of long memory behavior in u s renewable energy consumption this study examines the degrees of time persistence in u s total renewable energy consumption using innovative fractional integration and autoregressive models with monthly data from 1981 1 to 2010 10 the results indicate that renewable energy consumption is better explained in terms of a long memory model that incorporates persistence components and seasonality the degree of integration is above 0 5 but significantly below 1 0 suggesting nonstationarity with mean reverting behavior the presence of long memory behavior persistence in renewable energy consumption suggests that random shocks may very well move renewable energy consumption from pre determined target levels for a period of time

is per capita electricity consumption stationary time series evidence from oecd countries this study examines the stationary properties of per capita electricity consumption in which the endogenously determined break points are incorporated in 23 high income oecd countries by using annual data over 1960 2005 period we utilize lagrange multiplier lm unit root test that endogenously determines structural breaks in level and or trend we find that 21 country series reject the unit root null hypothesis at the 5 significance level except for 2 country series thus our empirical findings provide significant evidence that per capita electricity consumption is stationary in almost all countries considered in the study the stationarity of per capita electricity consumption indicates that it should be possible for the series to forecast future movements in the energy consumption based on the past behaviors of the series important policy implications emerge from our empirical results of the unit root test with multiple structural breaks

the energy growth nexus reconsidered persistence and causality abstract this article applies a recent econometric framework to the analysis of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the us which allows a joint study of causality and persistence we provide evidence suggesting a nonlinear relationship with a structural break in the most recent regime we find that gdp causes energy consumption and vice versa furthermore both series show persistence i e cyclical and natural components do not evolve independently thus policies oriented to the reduction of energy consumption could constrain economic growth and policy shocks can have permanent effects

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

energy production in brazil empirical facts based on persistence seasonality and breaks abstract this paper investigates the statistical properties of the production of energy in brazil using long range dependence techniques in monthly data from january 2000 to february 2013 two important features of the data are analyzed in particular its degree of persistence and seasonality the results indicate first that seasonality is an essential issue in modeling the persistence in energy production also the persistence itself measured in terms of the differencing parameter is relevant with orders of integration in the series found to be positive though smaller than 1 and thus implying mean reversion a single structural break is also found in two of the series policy implications of the results obtained are also derived

stochastic convergence in per capita energy consumption and its catch up rate evidence from 26 african countries using annual data from 1971 to 2014 we examine stochastic conditional convergence in per capita energy consumption for 26 low income lower middle income and upper middle income african countries

trade based diffusion of labor rights a panel study 1986 2002 this article investigates the nature of the linkages between trade and labor rights in developing countries specifically we hypothesize that a california effect serves to transmit superior labor standards from importing to exporting countries in a manner similar to the transmission of environmental standards we maintain that all else being equal the labor standards of a given country are influenced not by its overall level of trade openness but by the labor standards of its trading partners we evaluate our hypothesis using a panel of 90 developing countries over the period 1986 2002 and we separately examine the extent to which the labor laws and the actual labor practices of the countries are influenced by those of their export destinations we find that strong legal protections of collective labor rights in a country s export destinations are associated with more stringent labor laws in the exporting country this california effect finding is however weaker in the context of labor rights practices highlighting the importance of distinguishing between formal legislation and actual implementation of labor rights

imperfect competition and the effects of energy price increases on economic activity the authors show that modifying the standard neoclassical growth model by assuming that competition is imperfect makes it easier to explain the size of the declines in output and real wages that follow increases in the price of oil plausibly parameterized models of this type are able to mimic the response of output and real wages in the united states the responses are particularly consistent with a model of implicit collusion where markups depend positively on the ratio of the expected present value of future profits to the current level of output copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

a new approach to energy consumption per capita stationarity evidence from oecd countries abstract applying a new panel stationary test procedure to data from 32 oecd countries from 1971 to 2013 this study examines the time series properties of per capita energy consumption the results indicate that energy consumption per capita follows a mean reverting process for 16 oecd countries whereas for the remaining 16 oecd countries a mean reverting process is not the case besides energy consumption per capita exhibits some sharp and smooth structural shifts breaks in its mean and or trend levels and the endogenously identified break dates correspond to specific macroeconomic events such as oil crises gulf war asian and global financial crises these results also have important policy implications for the 16 oecd countries that have stationary energy consumption per capita series government policies intended to stabilize energy demand will have no long lasting effects and therefore governments should not adopt unnecessary policy targets for energy demand level however for the remaining 16 oecd countries such policies will have long lasting effects

oil price and inflation abstract an oil price rise would be expected to result in an immediate reduction by about 20 in the standard of living of the oil importing countries and a corresponding increase in that of the oil exporters since the price rises experienced during recent years have not been reflected in wage reductions the result has been high long lasting inflation which this paper shows will increase in the coming years to more than 20 measures taken by the oil importers include energy saving which results in a still lower standard of living if instead the industrialized countries increase production by increasing energy consumption and improving production efficiency the effect of a rise in oil price will be compensated for in a few years

applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research abstract developments in applied econometrics particularly with regard to unit root tests and cointegration tests have motivated a rich empirical literature on energy economics over the last decade this study reviews recent developments in time series econometrics applications in the energy economics literature we first consider the literature on the integration properties of energy variables we begin with a discussion of the implications of whether energy variables contain a unit root and proceed to examine how results differ according to the specific unit root or stationarity test employed we then proceed to examine recent developments in the literature on cointegration granger causality and long run estimates between disaggregated energy consumption and economic growth we review both single country and panel studies and pay particular attention to studies which have expanded the literature through adding variables such as financial development and trade in addition to energy consumption to the augmented production function as well as studies which have extended the literature through examining disaggregated energy consumption by type in each case we highlight best practice in the literature point to limitations in the literature including econometric modeling challenges and suggest recommendations for future research a key message of our survey is that the profession needs to guard against overload of research in these areas as most applied studies are no longer adding anything more to what is already known

are shocks to renewable energy consumption permanent or transitory an empirical investigation for brazil china and india abstract this paper investigates whether there is a unit root in renewable energy consumption in three large developing economies brazil china and india over the period 1971 2014 to do so it uses four unit root tests assuming one structural break two structural breaks and more than two structural breaks it observes that renewable energy consumption is a unit root process in brazil but it is found as stationary in china and india the paper also tackles issues and challenges in the unit root test methodology in energy economics literature and provides implications for renewable energy consumption in three economies

are fluctuations in electricity consumption per capita transitory evidence from developed and developing economies abstract this paper investigates the unit root properties of electricity consumption per capita of 67 developed and developing countries for the period 1971 2010 to examine the stationary properties of electricity consumption per capita we have adopted lee and strazicich 2003 2004 test of unit root that allows us to test for at most two endogenous breaks and uses the lagrange multiplier lm test statistics results show that 65 country series reject the unit root null hypothesis except for 2 country series thus our empirical findings provide significant evidence that electricity consumption per capita is stationary in almost all countries considered the stationarity of electricity consumption per capita indicates that it should be possible for the series to forecast future movements in the energy consumption based on the past behaviors of the series

a note on the causal relationship between energy and gdp in taiwan abstract this paper re examines the causality between energy consumption and gdp by using updated taiwan data for the period 1954 1997 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between gdp and the aggregate as well as several disaggregate categories of energy consumption including coal oil natural gas and electricity applying granger s technique we find bidirectional causality between total energy consumption and gdp we find further that different directions of cause exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption

an alternative reference scenario for global co2 emissions from fuel consumption an arfima approach abstract in this note we establish an alternative reference scenario based on an arfima model estimated using global co2 emissions from 1750 to 2013 these new reference forecasts are free from additional assumptions on demographic and economic variables often used in most reference forecasts instead we only rely on the properties of the underlying stochastic process for global co2 emissions that are in this sense closer to fundamentals our reference forecasts are clearly below the levels proposed by other reference scenarios available in the literature this is important as it suggests that the ongoing policy goals are actually easier to reach than what is implied by the standard reference scenarios having lower and more realistic reference emissions projections gives a truer assessment of the policy efforts that are needed and highlights the lower costs involved in mitigation efforts thereby maximizing the likelihood of more widespread environmental policy efforts

is energy consumption per capita broken stationary new evidence from regional based panels abstract for the first time a new panel unit root testing procedure developed by 51 carrion i silvestre et al 2005 breaking the panels an application to gdp per capita econometrics journal 8 159 175 is applied to re investigate the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for 7 regional panel sets covering the 1971 2002 period with structural breaks and cross sectional correlations introduced into the model it becomes clear that all regional based panels of energy consumption per capita are stationary the structural breakpoints identify the likely causes of major changes in energy consumption in the past the findings underscore the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks to a series and offer several important implications for policy makers and energy economists

long memory and disaggregated energy consumption evidence from fossils coal and electricity retail in the u s abstract in this paper the long memory properties of disaggregated fossils coal and electricity retail consumption in the u s over the 1989 2009 period are examined the presence of long memory is related to autocorrelation persistence of each series our results show that there is heterogeneity in the order of integration between these types of energy consumption and for the different sectors employed which is affected by the inclusion of a break event the order of integration was generally higher for the case of a break in the intercept than in the slope with the latter being more plausible for all series

will policies to promote renewable electricity generation be effective evidence from panel stationarity and unit root tests for 115 countries abstract this study examines whether policies to promote renewable electricity generation are likely to be effective by applying panel unit root and stationarity tests to time series data on renewable electricity generation for 115 countries over the period 1980 2008 we find that for the panel as a whole and almost three quarters of the individual countries renewable electricity generation is characterized by a unit root this result implies that policies to promote renewable electricity generation such as renewable portfolio standards which result in annual increases in renewable energy and as such which represent permanent positive shocks to the long run growth path of renewable electricity generation will be more effective in increasing renewable electricity generation than policies with a pre specified time horizon

multinational corporations economic and human rights impacts on developing countries a review and research agenda developing countries are attracting a significant portion of global foreign direct investments governments of such countries often compete fiercely for attracting multinational corporations mncs in the expectation of the advantages they will bring to their economies often prioritising economic goals over fundamental human rights for a long time economists have analysed the economic impacts of mncs while a parallel strand of work in political science business ethics and international law investigates the repercussions of mnc operations on human rights despite the significant relatedness and complementarities these two bodies of literature have so far poorly interacted this paper addresses this limitation and systematically analyses and integrates existing micro level empirical evidence on the economic and human rights impacts of mncs on developing countries it provides a critical analysis of what is known and highlights what we do not know about the factors that mediate the positive and or negative impacts of mnc operations on host developing countries based on a critical analysis of the literature it discusses avenues for future research in this field and sets the grounds for a new interdisciplinary research agenda on this subject

long run equilibrium real exchange rates and oil prices abstract using cointegration and causality tests this paper demonstrates that the nonstationary behavior of us dollar real exchange rates over the post bretton woods era is due to the nonstationary behavior of real oil prices

the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour a regime switching approach abstract in this paper we develop a two regime markov switching egarch model introduced by henry henry o 2009 regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short term interest rates journal of banking and finance 33 405 414 to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets an application to stock markets of uk france and japan over the sample period january 1989 to december 2007 illustrates plausible results we detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean high variance regime and the other to high mean low variance regime furthermore there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean high variance regime in addition we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable the findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes

belief in a just world and redistributive politics international surveys reveal wide differences between the views held in different countries concerning the causes of wealth or poverty and the extent to which people are responsible for their own fate at the same time social ethnographies and experiments by psychologists demonstrate individuals recurrent struggle with cognitive dissonance as they seek to maintain and pass on to their children a view of the world where effort ultimately pays off and everyone gets their just deserts this paper offers a model that helps explain i why most people feel such a need to believe in a just world ii why this need and therefore the prevalence of the belief varies considerably across countries iii the implications of this phenomenon for international differences in political ideology levels of redistribution labor supply aggregate income and popular perceptions of the poor the model shows in particular how complementarities arise endogenously between individuals desired beliefs or ideological choices resulting in two equilibria a first american equilibrium is characterized by a high prevalence of just world beliefs among the population and relatively laissez faire policies the other european equilibrium is characterized by more pessimism about the role of effort in economic outcomes and a more extensive welfare state more generally the paper develops a theory of collective beliefs and motivated cognitions including those concerning money consumption and happiness as well as religion

how does germany s green energy policy affect electricity market volatility an application of conditional autoregressive range models abstract based on a dynamic model for the high low range of electricity prices this article analyses the effects of germany s green energy policy on the volatility of the electricity market using european energy exchange data from 2000 to 2015 we find rather high volatility in the years 2000 2009 but also that the weekly price range has significantly declined in the period following the year 2009 this period is characterised by active regulation under the energy industry law enwg the eu emissions trading directive etd and the renewable energy law eeg in contrast to the preceding period price jumps are smaller and less frequent especially for day time hours implying that current policy measures are effective in promoting renewable energies while simultaneously upholding electricity market stability this is because the regulations strive towards a more and more flexible and market oriented structure which allows better integration of renewable energies and supports an efficient alignment of renewable electricity supply with demand

bidding structure market efficiency and persistence in a multi time tariff setting the purpose of this study is to examine the fractal dynamics of day ahead electricity prices by using parametric and semi parametric approaches for each time zone in a multi time tariff setting in the framework of bidding strategies market efficiency and persistence of exogenous shocks we find that that electricity prices have long term correlation structure for the first and third time zones indicating that market participants bid hyperbolically and not at their marginal costs market is not weak form efficient at these hours and exogenous shocks to change the mean level of prices will have permanent effect and be effective on the other hand for the second time zone we find that price series does not exhibit long term memory this finding suggests the weak form efficiency of the market in these hours and that market participants bid at their marginal costs furthermore this indicates that exogenous shocks will have temporary effect on electricity prices in these hours these findings constitute an important foundation for policy makers and market participants to develop appropriate electricity price forecasting tools market monitoring indexes and to conduct ex ante impact assessment

dynamics of persistence in international inflation rates characteristics of inflation play a key role in policy formulation and market analysis several studies have analyzed inflation persistence and reached diverging conclusions in this paper we investigate the dynamics of inflation persistence using fractionally integrated processes and find that there has been a clear decline in inflation persistence in the united states over the past two decades we also show that the presence of fractional integration in inflation successfully explains previous diverging results lastly we provide some international comparisons to examine the extent to which there has been a commensurate decline in inflation persistence in the other g7 economies

conditional convergence in us disaggregated petroleum consumption at the sector level abstractwe test for convergence in disaggregated petroleum consumption at the sector level for the united states using the recently proposed garch unit root test suitable for high frequency data we find evidence of convergence for just over half of the series including total petroleum consumption in each sector and approximately three quarters of the disaggregated petroleum consumption series in transportation

the demand for transport fuels in turkey abstract in this paper we estimate the demand for transport fuels in turkey specifically using four different models namely a partial adjustment model a distributed lag model an autoregressive distributed lag model and an error correction model we estimate gasoline and diesel demand functions with quarterly data covering the period 2003 q1 2014 q3 we find a stable long run relationship only for diesel demand income and price our results imply that gasoline demand does not respond to income and price in the long run reflecting a shift from gasoline towards diesel induced by differential tax policies furthermore we find that transport fuel demand is price inelastic making tax on fuel a perfect tool for raising budget revenues in addition our results suggest that fuel demand responds to negative and positive price changes symmetrically

globalization and labor conditions working conditions and worker rights in a global economy this book explains how three major mechanisms of globalization international trade international migration and the activities of multinational companies have altered working conditions and labor rights around the world during the 20th century drawing on analyses of a database on international labor conditions assembled for this project and a growing research literature on globalization and labor conditions the book finds that trade migration and multinational companies are associated with improvements in world labor conditions

price of oil and world inflation and recession new evidence shows that the commonly held assumption that the 1973 74 oil price increase directly affected us and world inflation and subsequent recession is consistent with the empirical data an extended lucas varro real income equation applied to the us united kingdom canada france germany italy japan and the netherlands gives mixed results partly because of price control and decontrol programs simulation experiments on the price control variable using us data finds strong effects further studies can be made when consistent international data is available for the 1979 80 period 18 references 4 figures 3 tables dck

is monthly us natural gas consumption stationary new evidence from a garch unit root test with structural breaks we apply a recently developed unit root test that simultaneously accounts for heteroskedasticity and structural breaks to united states monthly natural gas consumption we find that united states monthly natural gas consumption is stationary our results illustrate the importance of accounting for heteroskedasticity when testing for a unit root in energy consumption with higher frequency data

a re examination of stationarity of energy consumption evidence from new unit root tests abstract in this paper we re examine the stochastic behaviour of per capita total primary energy consumption across 178 countries around the world for this purpose in addition to conventional unit root tests we apply newly developed tests that allow for nonlinear adjustments and structural breaks in the data generating process the results of the unit root tests show that allowing for structural breaks and nonlinearity result in more frequent rejection of the null hypothesis of unit root suggesting that most of the series under consideration follow a stationary process these findings imply that both energy economists and policy makers must be careful and take account of possible nonlinearities and structural breaks in their analyses of energy consumption in addition the results imply that government interventions into the energy markets in most countries have no effect in the long run although the short run effects of the interventions depend on the size and the direction of interventions

oil prices nuclear energy consumption and economic growth new evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis abstract this paper applies panel data analysis to examine the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium relationships among nuclear energy consumption oil prices oil consumption and economic growth for developed countries covering the period 1971 2006 the panel cointegration results show that in the long run oil prices have a positive impact on nuclear energy consumption suggesting the existence of the substitution relationship between nuclear energy and oil the long run elasticity of nuclear energy with respect to real income is approximately 0 89 and real income has a greater impact on nuclear energy than do oil prices in the long run furthermore the panel causality results find evidence of unidirectional causality running from oil prices and economic growth to nuclear energy consumption in the long run while there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in the short run

long memory in us disaggregated petroleum consumption evidence from univariate and multivariate lm tests for fractional integration previous studies that have tested for a unit root in aggregate energy consumption have potentially reached misleading conclusions because they fail to allow for the possibility that energy consumption might be fractionally integrated and do not distinguish between different types of energy consumption this study tests for long memory in disaggregated petroleum consumption in the united states using univariate and multivariate lagrange multiplier lm tests for fractional integration the results point strongly to the need to distinguish between different forms of energy consumption and allow for a generalization of the i 0 i 1 dichotomy when considering the order of integration of energy consumption allowing for short run dynamics the univariate test suggests that less than 50 of the series are fractionally integrated consistent with expectations the non stationary series are found to have the highest mean and standard deviation the multivariate test suggests that petroleum consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors is clearly fractionally integrated when allowing for short run dynamics and as such exhibits persistent effects while petroleum consumption in the residential sector is a stationary process

testing for convergence in electricity consumption across croatian regions at the consumer s sectoral level abstract using the panel unit tests with and without structural break s the convergence hypothesis in relative per capita electricity consumption series is tested across croatian regions during the period 2001 2013 the results are mixed depending primarily on the consumption sector considered and the test applied they indicate the necessity to conduct analysis and formulate energy policy measures on the sector disaggregated and regional specific electricity consumption time series the croatian electricity markets are not fully integrated and some regions are faced with statistically significant structural break s demonstrating thereby the croatian gradual energy reform process with several sudden innovations significant regional differences and the market dependence on expectations domestic and international economic and non economic innovations the impacts of innovations are likely to be permanent for most of the regions and their electricity consumption behaviours are likely to be path dependent consequently innovations into the energy markets including government interventions may have long run effects indicating that space and time for experimenting with alternative mechanisms are quite limited

the seasonal cycle and the business cycle almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data this paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but are small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables the timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarters a large decrease in the first quarter and a mild decrease in the third quarter the paper demonstrates that with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle that is we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies output movements across broadly defined sectors move together the timing of production and the

are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary evidence from 182 countries this article applies univariate and panel data unit root tests to annual panel data for 182 countries over the period 1979 2000 to examine the stationarity properties of per capita energy consumption the univariate unit root test can only reject the unit root null for 56 countries or 31 of the sample at the 10 level or better however univariate unit root tests have low power with short spans of data and therefore failure to reject the unit root null should be treated with caution when we apply the panel data unit root test we find overwhelming evidence that energy consumption is stationary we discuss the policy implications of these findings and offer suggestions for future research

are shocks to natural gas consumption temporary or permanent evidence from a panel of u s states abstract this short communication examines whether or not u s natural gas consumption follows a stationary process unlike previous research that has focused on regional country or industrial sector based panel studies this study undertakes a sub national investigation of natural gas consumption for the 50 u s states levin et al 2002 im et al 2003 maddala and wu 1999 and hadri 2000 panel unit root and stationarity tests reveal that natural gas consumption is integrated of order one however once allowance is made for endogenously determined structural breaks the carrion i silvestre et al 2005 im et al 2005 and westerlund 2005 panel unit root and stationarity tests indicate that natural gas consumption is integrated of order zero discussion of the structural breaks is briefly surveyed in relation to the natural gas industry s response to legislative actions

are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory evidence from a panel of pacific island countries this study applies the panel stationarity test developed by carrion i silvestre et al 2005 breaking the panels an application to gdp per capita econometrics journal 8 159 175 to examine the stationarity of energy consumption per capita for a panel of 13 pacific island countries over the period 1980 2005 this test has the advantage that it allows for multiple structural breaks at unknown dates that can differ across countries and can account for all forms of cross sectional correlation between countries the conclusion from the study is that energy consumption per capita in approximately 60 of countries is stationary and that energy consumption per capita for the panel as a whole is stationary the study offers several suggestions for modelling energy consumption and policy making in the pacific islands

fourier quantile unit root test for the integrational properties of clean energy consumption in emerging economies abstract since the adoption of the kyoto protocol in 1997 and its entry into force in 2005 as well its aftermath such as the doha amendment and paris agreement national policies have become more conscious of the usage of clean energy mostly the different forms of renewable energy and nuclear energy ratifying countries and signatories had committed themselves to binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse emissions by 8 with respect to 1990 levels until 2012 also based on the particular contribution to global emissions from each country this paper examines the integrational properties of clean energy consumption from eight emerging economies which are also high greenhouse gas emitters the empirical results show that the clean energy consumption is stationarity for brazil and philippines by using a quantile unit root test without smooth breaks koenker and xiao 2004 however after capturing the smooth breaks bahmani oskooee et al 2018 we find the clean energy consumption of china pakistan and thailand are stationary the time varying deterministic trend with smooth breaks is more fitted to the path of clean energy consumption in comparison to the deterministic trend without smooth breaks the paper suggests economic insights useful for policy making

income and co2 emissions evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests abstract this paper re investigates the stationarity properties of per capita carbon dioxide co 2 emissions and real gross domestic product gdp per capita for 109 countries within seven regional panel sets covering 1971 2003 we apply the recent unit root test of the panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented dickey fuller suradf test developed by breuer et al 2001 misleading inferences from panel unit root tests with an illustration from purchasing power parity review of international economics 9 482 493 2002 series specific unit root tests with panel data oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 64 527 546 the panel suradf test accounts for the presence of cross country correlations in the data and the parameters in the panel specification vary across countries more importantly this test allows us to identify how many and which members of the panel contain a unit root overall our empirical results illustrate that real gdp and co 2 emissions in these countries are a mixture of i 0 and i 1 processes and that the traditional panel unit root tests could lead to misleading inferences as well as the conduct of cointegration analysis being perhaps inappropriate the results of our analysis carry critical implications for the modeling of co 2 emissions and gdp because of the different orders of integration for the two variables

asymmetries in the dynamic interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth evidence from turkey abstract in this study we examine possible nonlinearities in dynamic interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth in turkey for the 1960 2010 period by using a smooth transition vector autoregressive model in order to trace the effects of one variable on another we calculate generalized impulse response functions girfs the computed impulse response functions demonstrate asymmetric effects of positive versus negative and small versus large energy consumption shocks on output growth and vice versa specifically we find that negative energy shocks have a greater effect on output growth than positive energy shocks and that big negative energy shocks affect output much more than small negative energy shocks similarly we find that positive output shock has a greater effect on energy consumption whereas negative shocks have almost no effect on energy consumption the results of this study have clear and important implications for energy economists and policymakers in turkey

structural break unit root and the causality between energy consumption and gdp in turkey abstract this paper tries to investigate a series of unit root and causality tests to detect causality between the gdp and energy consumption in turkey employing hsiao s version of granger causality method for the 1950 2000 period the conventional unit root tests indicate the series are i 1 whereas the endogenous break unit root tests proposed by zivot and andrews zivot e and andrews d w k 1992 further evidence on the great crash the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis journal of business and economics statistics 10 251 270 and perron perron p 1997 further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables journal of econometrics 80 355 385 reveal that the series are trend stationary with a structural break therefore it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the data to achieve stationarity the main conclusion of this study is that there is no evidence of causality between energy consumption and gdp in turkey based on the detrended data

heterogeneity stratification and growth macroeconomic implications of community structure and school finance this paper examines how socioeconomic stratification and alternative systems of education finance affect inequality and growth agents interact through local public goods or externalities school funding neighborhood effects and economywide linkages complementary skills knowledge spillovers sorting families into homogeneous communities often minimizes the costs of existing heterogeneity but mixing reduces heterogeneity faster integration therefore tends to slow down growth in the short run yet raise it in the long run a move to state funding of education presents society with a similar intertemporal trade off local and global complementarities play major roles in determining the efficient social and educational structures copyright 1996 by american economic association

the asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks a nonlinear var approach in this paper we investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and monetary policy on macroeconomic activity using monthly data for the united states over the period from 1983 1 to 2008 12 in doing so we use a logistic smooth transition vector autoregression var as detailed in terasvirta and anderson 1992 and weise 1999 and make a distinction between two oil price volatility regimes high and low using the realized oil price volatility as a switching variable we isolate the effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks and their asymmetry on output growth and following koop et al 1996 and weise 1999 we employ simulation methods to calculate generalized impulse response functions girfs to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means of the variables our results suggest that in addition to the price of oil oil price volatility has an impact on macroeconomic activity and that monetary policy is not only reinforcing the effects of oil price shocks on output it is also contributing to the asymmetric response of output to oil price shocks

the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the united states an ardl approach abstract we re examine the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output as well as employment in the united states using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl approach developed by pesaran and pesaran pesaran m h pesaran b 1997 working with microfit 4 0 camfit data ltd cambridge and pesaran shin and smith pesaran m h shin y smith r j 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 16 289 326 in particular we focus attention on the following energy consumption variables coal fossil fuels conventional hydroelectric power solar energy wind energy natural gas wood and waste the sample period covers 2001 1 2005 6 our results imply that real output and employment are long run forcing variables for nearly all measures of disaggregate energy consumption

the employment and wage effects of oil price changes a sectoral analysis in this paper we use micro panel data to examine the effects of oil price changes on employment and real wages at the aggregate and industry levels we also measure differences in the employment and wage responses for workers differentiated on the basis of skill level we find that oil price increases result in a substantial decline in real wages for all workers but raise the relative wage of skilled workers the use of panel data econometric techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity is essential to uncover this result which is completely hidden in ols estimates while the short run effect of an oil price increase on aggregate employment is negative the long run effect is in fact positive we find that changes in oil prices induce changes in employment shares and relative wages across industries however we find little evidence that oil price changes cause labor to consistently flow into those sectors with relative wage increases copyright 1996 by mit press

a unit root model for trending time series energy variables in this paper we propose a garch based unit root test that is flexible enough to account for a trending variables b two endogenous structural breaks and c heteroskedastic data series our proposed model is applied to a range of time series trending and heteroskedastic energy variables our two main findings are first the proposed trend based garch unit root model outperforms a garch model without trend and second allowing for a time trend and two endogenous structural breaks are important in practice for doing so allows us to reject the unit root null hypothesis

structural breaks and fractional integration in the us output and unemployment rate abstract in this article we examine the presence of structural breaks in the us output and unemployment rate by means of using fractionally integrated techniques the results based on robinson s journal of the american statistical association 89 1994 1420 tests indicate that for unemployment the inclusion of breaks does not affect to the degree of integration of the series while for the gnp we observe a reduction in its order of integration of about 0 25 when a break due to the oil price crisis is taken into account

will disruptions in opec oil supply have permanent impact on the global oil market abstract opec has long been a major stakeholder and strong player in the global energy market especially in the petroleum sub sector in recent time however there have been questions over the influence of opec in the sub sector due to changing petroleum production landscape specifically as a result of the discovery of unconventional energy resources in north america and emergence of non opec petroleum producing and exporting countries this development could have significant effect on the global energy market and the macro economy of opec member countries the stationarity or otherwise of opec oil production supply has important implications for determining whether fluctuations in opec market supply has temporary or permanent effect using the zivot andrews structural break stationarity test and production data of opec member countries from 1980 to 2011 this paper investigates whether fluctuations in opec market supply has temporary or permanent effect the empirical analysis shows that for only 5 opec members nigeria saudi arabia ecuador kuwait and uae is the hypothesis of unit root rejected this implies that for the five 5 opec members the effects of shocks to oil production are not permanent and future pattern of oil production can be predicted following past trend the practical implication of this finding is that opec production quota strategy may not have long term impact on the global oil market thus the cartel needs to improve oil production policy coordination among members and ensure strict adherence to production quota while also stressing the need for diversification in member countries

will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective evidence from univariate and panel lm unit root tests with structural breaks abstract this paper examines whether initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption are likely to be effective by applying univariate and panel lagrange multiplier lm unit root tests to hydroelectricity consumption in 55 countries over the period 1965 2011 we find that for the panel as well as about four fifths of individual countries that hydroelectricity consumption is stationary this result implies that shocks to hydroelectricity consumption in most countries will only result in temporary deviations from the long run growth path an important consequence of this finding is that initiatives designed to have permanent positive effects on hydroelectricity consumption such as large scale dam construction are unlikely to be effective in increasing the share of hydroelectricity relative to consumption of fossil fuels

the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in lebanon this paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in lebanon over the period 1980 2009 within a bivariate framework imposed on us due to data limitations and in an effort to increase the robustness of our results we employ a variety of causality tests namely hsiao toda yamamoto and vector error correction based granger causality tests we find strong evidence of a bidirectional relationship both in the short run and in the long run indicating that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in lebanon from a policy perspective the confirmation of the feedback hypothesis warns against the use of policy instruments geared towards restricting energy consumption as these may lead to adverse effects on economic growth consequently there is a pressing need to revise the current national energy policy that calls for a 5 energy conservation target also to shield the country from external supply shocks given its substantial dependence on energy imports policymakers should emphasize the development of domestic energy resources further the most pertinent implication is that relaxing the present electric capacity shortages should be made a national priority in view of its potential positive effect on the economy

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

structural breaks and petroleum consumption in us states are shocks transitory or permanent abstract this short communication extends the literature on the stationarity of energy consumption to the case of us petroleum consumption at the state level from 1960 to 2007 the results of lee and strazicich 2003 and narayan and popp forthcoming unit root tests with endogenously determined structural breaks in the intercept and slope of the trend function reveal break dates that correspond to the two opec oil shocks of the 1970s along with the double dip recession of 1980 1982 the null hypothesis of a unit root in petroleum consumption is rejected for a majority of states these results highlight the importance of recognizing the heterogeneity in the behavior of petroleum consumption across states in the formulation of energy conservation and demand management policies