macroeconomic effects of precautionary demand for oil summary we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of shocks specific to the oil market which mainly reflect fluctuations in precautionary demand for oil driven by uncertainty about future supplies a two stage identification procedure is used first daily changes in the futures spot price spread proxy for precautionary demand shocks and the path of oil prices is estimated this information is then exploited to restrict the oil price response in a vector autoregression impulse responses suggest that such shocks reduce output and raise prices historical decomposition shows that they contributed significantly to the us recessions in the 1990s and in the early 2000s but not to the most recent slump copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

the macroeconomics of fiscal consolidations in euro area countries we simulate a currency union dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the macroeconomic implications of permanently reducing the public debt to gross domestic product gdp ratio in euro area countries we obtain the following results first tax distortions are quantitatively significant second the best fiscal consolidation strategy is to permanently reduce both expenditures and tax rates third under such a consolidation strategy the transition is generally not costly as the gdp and investment would grow while private consumption would not fall finally spillovers to the rest of the euro area are generally expansionary

dynamic scoring alternative financing schemes abstract neoclassical growth models predict that reductions in capital or labor income tax rates are expansionary when lump sum transfers are used to balance the government budget this paper explores the consequences of bond financed tax reductions that bring forth a range of possible offsetting policies including future government consumption capital tax rates or labor tax rates through the resulting intertemporal distortions current tax cuts can be expansionary or contractionary the paper also finds that more aggressive responses of offsetting policies to debt engender less debt accumulation and less costly tax cuts

taxes benefits and careers complete versus incomplete markets abstract an incomplete market life cycle model with indivisible labor makes career lengths and human capital accumulation respond to labor tax rates and government supplied non employment benefits we compare aggregate and individual outcomes in this individualistic incomplete market model with those in a comparable collectivist representative family model with employment lotteries and complete insurance markets the incomplete and complete market structures assign leisure to different types of individuals who are distinguished by their human capital and age these microeconomic differences distinguish the two models in terms of how macroeconomic aggregates respond to some types of government supplied non employment benefits but remarkably not to labor tax changes

a novel approach to identifying hedonic demand parameters abstract this note presents a new solution to the classic problem with using hedonic price functions to recover demand curves unexpected changes in the composition of a differentiated product can generate instruments that support a simple reduced form approach to demand estimation

micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes we build a life cycle model of labor supply that incorporates changes along both the intensive and extensive margin and use it to assess the consequences of changes in tax and transfer policies on equilibrium hours of work we find that changes in taxes have large aggregate effects on hours of work moreover we find that there is no inconsistency between this result and the empirical finding of small labor elasticities for prime age workers in our model micro and macro elasticities are effectively unrelated our model is also consistent with other cross country patterns

lumpy investment and corporate tax policy in the presence of both convex and nonconvex capital adjustment costs in a dynamic general equilibrium model corporate tax policy generates both intensive and extensive margin effects via the channel of marginal q i ts impact is determined largely by the strength of the extensive margin effect which in turn depends on the cross sectional distribution of firms depending on the initial distribution of firms the economy displays asymmetric responses to tax changes moreover an anticipated increase in the future investment tax credit reduces investment and adjustment rate initially

bad investments and missed opportunities postwar capital flows to asia and latin america since 1950 the economies of east asia grew rapidly but received little inter national capital while latin america received considerable international capitaleven as their economies stagnated the literature typically explains the failureof capital to flow to high growth regions as resulting from international capitalmarket imperfections this paper proposes a broader thesis that country specificdistortions such as domestic labor and capital market distortions also impactcapital flows we develop a dsge model of asia latin america and the rest ofthe world that features an open economy business cycle accounting framework tomeasure these domestic and international distortions and to quantify their con tributions to international capital flows we find that domestic distortions havebeen the predominant drivers of international capital flows and that the generalequilibrium effects of these distortions are very large international capital market distortions also matter but less

optimal r q inventory policies with poisson demands and lost sales discounted and undiscounted cases abstract we consider a continuous review r q inventory system with poisson demands and at most one order outstanding the replenishment lead time is either constant or exponentially distributed demands not covered immediately from inventory are lost costs include a linear order cost with a fixed cost per order and a fixed cost per unit lost sale as regards inventory holding costs the cost of capital often constitutes a major part this paper focuses on these interest related holding costs in the undiscounted case holding costs are linear and inventory performance is measured by the long run average total cost incurred per unit time in the discounted case the performance measure is the expected present value of the ordering and lost sales costs the cost associated with capital tied up in inventory is accounted for by an appropriate discount rate we formulate an exact model and design a policy iteration algorithm for the discounted case results on the form of an optimal replenishment policy are derived and the model is compared to a previously derived model for the undiscounted case numerical experiments are used to evaluate the difference between the optimal solutions with and without discounting the effect of a stochastic lead time on this difference is also considered by comparing solutions with constant and exponential lead times in general the differences seem to be fairly small but exceptional cases exist when the service level is low

inventory policies for all or nothing demand processes abstract when there is insufficient stock to meet a specific customer order a common assumption is that the remaining stock will be used to satisfy the order partially while the balance of the order is backordered or lost this is the partial backorder or partial lost sales assumption in this paper we consider what happens when the nature of the demand process is such that orders must be met in full or not at all this is the all or nothing demand assumption we concentrate for the purpose of illustration on the context of a continuous review model with a poisson customer arrival rate with a fixed lead time and for which not more than one replenishment order may be outstanding at any time

short term gdp forecasting with a mixed frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility in this article we develop a mixed frequency dynamic factor model in which the disturbances of both the latent common factor and of the idiosyncratic components have time varying stochastic volatilities we use the model to investigate business cycle dynamics in the euro area and present three sets of empirical results first we evaluate the impact of macroeconomic releases on point and density forecast accuracy and on the width of forecast intervals second we show how our setup allows to make a probabilistic assessment of the contribution of releases to forecast revisions third we examine point and density out of sample forecast accuracy we find that introducing stochastic volatility in the model contributes to an improvement in both point and density forecast accuracy supplementary materials for this article are available online

labor supply and government programs a cross country analysis abstract there are substantial cross country differences in labor supply late in the life cycle age 50 a theory of labor supply and retirement decisions is developed to quantitatively assess the role of social security disability insurance and taxation for understanding differences in labor supply late in the life cycle across european countries and the united states the findings support the view that government policies can go a long way towards accounting for the low labor supply late in the life cycle in the european countries relative to the united states with social security rules accounting for the bulk of these effects

price stability with imperfect financial integration this paper studies whether the international monetary system can be affected by asymmetries in the cross country positions in the international financial markets i e the fact that some countries are large debtors while others are creditors an important channel that is explored is the interaction between international risk sharing and the stabilization role of monetary policy in each country the main finding is that the welfare costs of incomplete markets and the gains of deviating from a policy of price stability are increasing with the cross country asymmetries in the initial net international positions and in particular they become nonnegligible when the persistence of the shocks increases 1 of a permanent shift in steady state consumption for the welfare costs of incomplete markets and 0 2 for the gains of deviating from a policy of price stability when global imbalances become larger optimal monetary policy requires an increase in the volatilities of the real returns on assets and in particular of the nominal interest rates which should happen to be more correlated across countries

a robust test for consumer welfare enhancing mergers among sellers of differentiated products recently developed tools are used to predict the effects of differentiated products mergers but they require the assumption of a particular functional form for industry demand and any assumption is vulnerable to attack this paper demonstrates that marginal cost reductions necessary to restore premerger prices can be calculated without making any assumption about demand and it provides a robust and practical method for determining whether a particular merger enhances consumer welfare copyright 1996 by blackwell publishing ltd

cartel damages claims and the passing on defense we develop a general framework for computing cartel damages claims we decom pose a direct purchaser plainti s lost pro ts in three parts the price overcharge the pass on eect and the output eect the output eect is usually neglected it is the lost business resulting from passing on the price overcharge to evaluate the relative importance of the three eects we introduce various models of imperfect competition for the plainti s industry we show that the passing on defense generally remains jus ti ed after accounting for the output eect provided that the cartel aects a su cient number of rms we derive exact discounts to the price overcharge and illustrate how to compute these in the european vitamin cartel we nally extend our framework to measure the cartel s total harm i e the total damages to direct purchasers and their consumers

non standard monetary policy asset prices and macroprudential policy in a monetary union abstract this paper evaluates the interaction of non standard monetary measures and macroprudential policy in a monetary union by developing a two region model of the euro area ea and simulating the eurosystem s asset purchase programme app in each region some households are subject to a borrowing constraint and the local real estate is used as collateral our results are as follows first in one region a large loan to value ltv ratio can amplify the positive effect of the union wide app on domestic households borrowing second during the app implementation overly optimistic i e non fundamental expectations about local real estate prices would further augment households borrowing in that region third region specific macroprudential measures that stabilize private debt can counteract the effects of the optimistic expectations and favor a macroeconomic expansion driven only by fundamentals i e the app without the need to scale back the latter fourth both the app and the region specific macroprudential policy bring about a welfare improvement

indivisible labor lotteries and equilibrium abstract this paper considers an economy where labor is indivisible and agents are identical although the discontinuity in labor supply at the individual level disappears as a result of aggregation it is shown that indivisible labor has strong consequences for the aggregate bahavior of the economy it is also shown that optimal allocations involve lotteries over employment and consumption

which hedonic models can we trust to recover the marginal willingness to pay for environmental amenities abstract the hedonic property value model is among our foremost tools for evaluating the economic consequences of policies that target the supply of local public goods environmental services and urban amenities we design a theoretically consistent and empirically realistic monte carlo study of whether omitted variables seriously undermine the method s ability to accurately identify economic values our results suggest that large gains in accuracy can be realized by moving from the standard linear specifications for the price function to a more flexible framework that uses a combination of spatial fixed effects quasi experimental identification and temporal controls for housing market adjustment

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

technology capital and the us current account the u s bureau of economic analysis bea estimates the return on investments of foreign subsidiaries of u s multinational companies over the period 1982 2006 averaged 9 4 percent annually after taxes u s subsidiaries of foreign multinationals averaged only 3 2 percent two factors distort bea returns technology capital and plant specific intangible capital technology capital is accumulated know how from intangible investments in r d brands and organizations that can be used in foreign and domestic locations used abroad it generates profits for foreign subsidiaries with no foreign direct investment fdi plantspecific intangible capital in foreign subsidiaries is expensed abroad lowering current profits on fdi and increasing future profits we develop a multicountry general equilibrium model with an essential role for fdi and apply the bea s methodology to construct economic statistics for the model economy we estimate that mismeasurement of intangible investments accounts for over 60 percent of the difference in bea returns

some fiscal calculus what is the impact of fiscal policy on the econ omy how large are the multipliers of govern ment spending and tax cuts this old question has recently received considerable attention in par ticular in the context of the american recovery and reinvestment act arra of 2009 i contribute to answering that question by calculating fiscal multipliers in a baseline neo classical growth model with endogenous labor supply and fiscal policy allowing for govern ment spending transfers government debt and distortionary taxes on labor and capital income the policy experiments are conducted holding transfers consumption taxes and capital income taxes fixed i e changes in taxation require changes in the distortionary labor tax the model is simple and fairly standard as an additional contribution i provide the model in an elegant and tractable form starting from a fairly general formulation and pointing out the key functional form properties for characterizing the dynamics the formulation of the model here or versions

the general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy estimates for the euro area abstract this paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the euro area the model takes into account distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption while expenditures are broken down into purchases of goods and services compensation of public employees and transfers to households a newly computed quarterly data set of fiscal variables is used our results point to the prevalence of mild keynesian effects of public expenditures in particular although innovations in fiscal policy variables tend to be rather persistent government purchases of goods and services and compensations for public employees have small and short lived expansionary effects on private consumption while innovations in transfers to households show a slightly more sizeable and lasting effect the effects are more significant on the revenue side decreases in labor income and consumption tax rates have sizeable effects on consumption and output while a reduction in capital income tax favors investment and output in the medium run finally our estimates suggest that fiscal policy variables contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables

the role of regulation on entry evidence from the italian provinces this paper studies the effects of differences in local administrative burdens in italy in the years 2005 2007 preceding a major reform that sped up firm registration procedures combining regulatory data from a survey on italian provinces before the reform costs and time to start a business with industry level entry rates of limited liability firms it explores the effects of regulatory barriers on the average of the annual entry rates across industries with different natural propensities to enter the market the estimates of the cross sectional analysis show that lengthier and to some extent more costly procedures reduced entry in sectors with naturally high entry a one day delay in registration procedures reduces the entry rate in highly dynamic sectors by more than 1 percent these results hold when i include measures of local financial development and of efficiency of bankruptcy procedures are included

the role of the structural transformation in aggregate productivity we investigate the role of sectoral differences in labor productivity in explaining the process of structural transformation the secular reallocation of labor across sectors and the time path of aggregate productivity across countries using a simple model of the structural transformation that is calibrated to the growth experience of the united states we measure sectoral labor productivity differences across countries productivity differences between rich and poor countries are large in agriculture and services and smaller in manufacturing moreover over time productivity gaps have been substantially reduced in agriculture and industry but not nearly as much in services in the model these sectoral productivity patterns generate implications that are broadly consistent with the cross country evidence on the structural transformation aggregate productivity paths and relative prices we show that productivity catch up in industry explains about 50 percent of the gains in aggregate productivity across countries while low relative productivity in services and the lack of catch up explains all the experiences of slowdown stagnation and decline observed across countries

understanding european unemployment with a representative family model abstract a representative family model with indivisible labor and employment lotteries has no labor market frictions and complete markets nevertheless its aggregate responses to an increase in government supplied unemployment insurance ui and to an increase in microeconomic turbulence are qualitatively similar to those in two macromodels with labor market frictions and incomplete markets namely the matching and search island models in ljungqvist and sargent 2007a understanding european unemployment with matching and search island models journal of monetary economics this issue because there is no frictional unemployment in the representative family model an increase in employment protection ep decreases aggregate work because the representative family substitutes leisure for work an effect opposite to what occurs in matching and search island models heterogeneity among workers highlights the economy wide coordination in labor supply and consumption sharing that employment lotteries and complete markets achieve in the representative family model a high disutility of labor makes generous ui cause very low employment levels

future fiscal and budgetary shocks abstract we study the effects of future tax and budgetary shocks in a non monetary and possibly non ricardian economy an unanticipated temporary labor tax cut to be effective on a given future date a delayed debt bomb causes at once a drop in the unit value placed on the firms business asset the customer with the result that share prices the hourly wage and employment drop in tandem this paradox of reduced activity through announcement of future stimulus does not hinge on an upward jump of long interest rates a future tax rate cut lacking a sunset provision has the same negative effects

implications of productive government spending for fiscal policy abstract the standard assumption in macroeconomics that government spending is unproductive can have substantive implications for tax and spending policy productive government spending introduces a positive feedback between the tax rate the productive capacity of the economy and tax revenue we allow marginal tax revenue to be optimally allocated between productive subsidies to human capital and utility enhancing government consumption and calculate laffer curves for the us productive government spending yields higher revenue maximizing tax rates steeper slopes at low tax rates and higher peaks the differences are particularly pronounced for the labor tax laffer curve the use of tax revenue is an important determinant of the actual revenue that a tax rate increase generates

the discounted r q inventory model the shrewd accountant s heuristic abstract the discounted continuous review r q inventory model with continuous and stochastic demand is investigated new optimality conditions are derived clarifying the difference to the average cost case also graphically supported by depreciation theory applied to the value of a setup the results suggest an insightful and very precise approximation the shrewd accountant s heuristic based on a new average cost model it deepens and extends the work of hadley 1964 three examples are worked out in detail and the model is generalized to poisson demand and to stochastic lead times

exchange rate economics is always and everywhere controversial abstractthis article reviews the major developments in the recent literature on exchange rate economics it is argued that the link between the exchange rate and economic fundamentals is breaking new ground evidence indicates that alternative analytical frameworks such as the new open economy macroeconomics and exchange rate arrangements such as the euro have their theoretical and analytical elegance but are proving empirically very difficult to implement the role of methodological advances and alternative fundamental instruments such as world commodity prices is also highlighted

measuring the cost of economic fluctuations with preferences that rationalize the equity premium lucas 2003 argues that the potential welfare gains from stabilizing the business cycle are small in fact he shows that the benefits of eliminating all economic fluctuations are small especially when compared with the potential gains from other reforms his estimates are obtained using standard preferences i show that a model consistent with observed data on asset returns leads to very different conclusions calibrating preferences to observed asset market data raises the estimated welfare gains from completely eliminating aggregate fluctuations by approximately two orders of magnitude most of the gains however come from the elimination of low frequency contributions lucas 2003 suggere que les gains de bien etre potentiels qui emergeraient d une stabilisation du cycle economique sont faibles de fait il montre que les avantages aeliminer toutes les fluctuations economiques sont specialement faibles quand on les compare aux gains potentiels qu on peut attendre d autres reformes il developpe ces estimations a l aide de preferences standards on montre qu un modele consistant avec les donnees observees sur le rendement des actifs nous amene a des conclusions differentes le fait d arrimer les preferences aux donnees observees sur le marche des actifs double a peu pres la magnitude des gains de bien etre si on eliminait completement les fluctuations agregees le gros des gains cependant emergerait de l elimination des evenements peu frequents

understanding the solar home price premium electricity generation and green social status this study uses a large sample of homes in the san diego area and sacramento california area to provide some of the first capitalization estimates of the sales value of homes with solar panels relative to comparable homes without solar panels although the residential solar home market continues to grow there is little direct evidence on the market capitalization effect using both hedonics and a repeat sales index approach we find that solar panels are capitalized at roughly a 3 5 premium this premium is larger in communities with a greater share of college graduates and of registered prius hybrid vehicles

myopic governments and welfare enhancing debt limits abstract this paper studies welfare effects of a soft borrowing constraint on sovereign debt the constraint is modeled as a proportional fine per unit of debt in excess of a specified reference value resembling features of the stability and growth pact sovereign debt is the result of myopic fiscal policy it reduces welfare in the absence of lump sum taxes the paper shows that the borrowing constraint enhances welfare by reducing long run debt in an economy calibrated to a generic oecd country the maximum attainable welfare gain of debt consolidation which is induced by imposing the optimally parameterized constraint amounts to 0 5 in terms of consumption the short run welfare costs of the constraint which arise from restricting the use of debt to smooth taxes are quantitatively negligible

tax reform and labour market performance in the euro area a simulation based analysis using the new area wide model in this paper we employ a calibrated two country version of the new area wide model nawm developed at the european central bank to examine the potential benefits and spillovers of reducing labour market distortions caused by euro area tax structures our analysis shows that lowering tax distortions to levels prevailing in the united states would result in an increase in hours worked and output by more than 10 at the same time tax reductions would have positive spillovers to the euro area s trade partners bolstering the case for tax reforms from a global perspective finally we illustrate that in the presence of heterogeneous households distributional effects may be of importance when gauging the impact of tax reforms

prosperity and depression prosperity and depression are relative concepts today both france and japan are depressed relative to the united states equivalently the united states is prosperous relative to these countries i say these countries are depressed relative to the united states because their output per working age person is 30 percent less than the u s level an interesting and important policy question is why are these countries depressed the answers for these two countries turn out to be very different the united states is prosperous relative to france because the u s intratemporal tax wedge that distorts the trade off between consumption and leisure is much smaller than the french wedge i will show that if france modified its intratemporal tax wedge so that its value was the same as the u s value french welfare in consumption equivalents would increase by 19 percent consumption would have to increase by 19 percent now and in all future periods to achieve as large a welfare gain as that resulting from this tax reform the united states is prosperous relative to japan because production efficiency is higher in the united states in the united states total factor productivity is approximately 20 percent higher than in japan if japan suddenly became as efficient in production as the united states its welfare gain in consumption equivalents would be 39 percent equally interesting and important are big changes over time in relative output per working age person across countries why are new zealand s and switzerland s economies depressed by over 30 percent relative to their 1970 trend corrected levels both of these countries have small populations but depressions are not restricted to small countries japan with its 125 million people is now depressed by 20 percent relative to its 1991 trend corrected level on the prosperity side why are ireland and south korea so prosperous now relative to their 1970 trend corrected levels this lecture is concerned primarily with big international differences among relatively rich industrial countries and changes in these differences over time the countries that receive primary attention all have market economies and healthy well educated populations in the countries considered the variations in aggregate output per working age person are large and reasonably good measures of the factor inputs are available this permits in many cases the identification of the change in policy or the difference in policy that gave rise to prosperity or depression this is in contrast to business cycle theory which provides little guidance to policy except for the important policy implication that a stabilization effort will have either no effect or a perverse effect the output variations studied and analyzed in this lecture are big an order of magnitude larger than the much studied business cycle fluctuations the variations studied however are an order of magnitude smaller than the muchstudied differences between the richest and poorest countries surprisingly only recently have depressions been systematically studied from the perspective of growth theory which is the theory used university of minnesota and federal reserve bank of minneapolis i thank my colleagues at the university of minnesota and the federal reserve bank of minneapolis for helpful discussions and comments in particular i thank tim kehoe ellen mcgrattan and nancy stokey for their help i also thank martin weale and franck portier for providing some british and french tax information used in this lecture thanks also go to sami alpanda and james macgee for research assistance and helpful discussions this lecture draws heavily on collaborative research with fumio hayashi i thank the economic and social research institute cabinet office government of japan and the u s national science foundation for financial support the views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily those of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis or the federal reserve system

periodic review lost sales inventory models with compound poisson demand and constant lead times of any length in almost all literature on inventory models with lost sales and periodic reviews the lead time is assumed to be either an integer multiple of or less than the review period in a lot of practical settings such restrictions are not satisfied we develop new models allowing constant lead times of any length when demand is compound poisson besides an optimal policy we consider pure and restricted base stock policies under new lead time and cost circumstances based on our numerical results we conclude that the latter policy which imposes a restriction on the maximum order size performs almost as well as the optimal policy we also propose an approximation procedure to determine the base stock levels for both policies with closed form expressions

raising female employment reflections and policy tools while there is consensus on the need to raise the time spent in the market by european women it is not clear how these goals should be achieved tax wedges assistance in the job search process and part time jobs are policy instruments that are widely debated in policy circles the paper presents a simple model of labor supply with market frictions and heterogenous home production where the effects of these policies can be coherently analyzed we show that subsidies to labor market entry increase women s entrance in the labor market but they also increase exits from the labor market with ambiguous effect on employment subsidies to part time do increase employment but they have ambiguous effects on hours and market production finally reductions in taxes on market activities that are highly substitutable with home production have unambiguous positive effects on market employment and production jel j0 j2

shadow banks and macroeconomic instability we develop a macroeconomic model in which in which commercial banks can o oad risky loans to a highly levered shadow banking sector and financial intermediaries trade in securitized assets we highlight the liquidity creation role played by securitization we show how an endogenous tightening of credit constraints can exacerbate the e ect of shocks by limiting the ability of shadow banks to supply collateral and of banks to securitize the model is able to reproduce the cyclical behavior of bank and non bank credit and leverage macroeconomic shocks that directly impact the worth of financial sector are particularly harmful to economic activity but purely redistributive intra financial shocks can also generate recessions we discuss how government policy can stabilize the securitization market when the shadow banking system becomes impaired

a merger approach to cartel overcharge analysis abstract to the extent that cartels are effective at maximizing joint profits they are akin to multi firm mergers this paper draws from merger analysis in particular upward pricing pressure to construct a model of cartel overcharges for practitioners this approach has the benefit that it strikes an appropriate balance between simplicity and flexibility moreover it relies mostly on data on margins and diversion ratios and can thus be used as either a complement or alternative to empirical approaches based for example on historical price data

optimal policies for inventory systems with lateral transshipments using lateral transshipments can be beneficial in order to improve service levels and to reduce system costs this paper deals with a single echelon inventory system with two identical locations demands are generated by stationary and independent poisson processes in general if a demand occurs at a location and there is no stock on hand the demand is assumed to be backordered or lost however in this paper lateral transshipments serve as an emergency supply in case of stock out in this paper the rule for lateral transshipments is given while the ordering policies for normal replenishments are optimized the transshipment rule is to always transship when there is a shortage at one location and stock on hand at the other first we assume that the locations apply r q policies for normal replenishments and show that the optimal policies are not necessarily symmetric even though the locations are identical this means that one cannot in general assume that the optimal policy is symmetric under symmetric assumptions second we relax the assumption of r q policies and derive the optimal replenishment policy using stochastic dynamic programming

continuous review s s policies with lost sales a method is developed to calculate an s s policy that minimizes the average stationary cost in an inventory system with constant lead time fixed order cost linear holding cost per unit time linear penalty cost per unit short discrete compound poisson demand and lost sales it is assumed that at most one order is outstanding or equivalently that s s s the procedure is compared to several easier to compute approximate solutions including one that assumes backordering examples are given that reveal that although the backorder solution is different than the lost sales one the cost penalty of using it in the lost sales situation is small

fiscal policy pricing frictions and monetary accommodation this paper empirically investigates whether the theoretical conditions for government expenditure expansions to be effective hold for the data we ask whether the necessary conditions for fiscal effectiveness are relevant on average and in special circumstances that capture features of the recent crisis fiscal policy can be an effective countercyclical tool if monetary policy accommodates the fiscal expansion if expectations about future output growth and inflation are constant and if structural relationships are invariant to the policy change recent expansions are unlikely to produce large output multipliers or have important debt or inflation effects credible deficit and debt reduction schemes can produce sizeable output multipliers fabio canova and evi pappa

dynamic scoring a back of the envelope guide abstract this paper uses the neoclassical growth model to examine the extent to which a tax cut pays for itself through higher economic growth the model yields simple expressions for the steady state feedback effect of a tax cut the feedback is surprisingly large for standard parameter values half of a capital tax cut is self financing the paper considers various generalizations of the basic model including elastic labor supply general production technologies departures from infinite horizons and non neoclassical production settings it also examines how the steady state results are modified when one considers the transition path to the steady state