growth paths and survival chances an application of gambler s ruin theory this paper links new firm survival with growth with a focus on the patterns in firms growth paths we theorise a gambler s ruin framework by arguing that new firm performance is best modelled as a random walk process but that survival is nonrandom and depends primarily on the stock of accumulated resources a firm s resources are either there when the business begins or are generated by successful periods wins the empirical section tracks over six years the sales and survival non survival of 6247 uk start ups which all began trading in the same quarter of 2004 we do not find strong evidence in favour of a taxonomy of growth paths because we observe that every possible growth path seems to occur with roughly equal probability however we observe that growth paths influence subsequent survival controlling for lagged size we observe that longer lags of growth and even start up size have significant effects on survival

did migration in the 1980s narrow the north south divide this paper integrates empirical analysis of the decision to migrate from a region with that of destination choice thus we are able to study how net migration and not just gross outflows are influenced by regional labour market circumstances the results suggest that relative regional wages rates but not relative unemployment and vacancy rates are effective in reallocating labour from regions experiencing adverse demand shocks we find little evidence that manual labour is migrating from those regions with relatively high manual unemployment but that migration plays a more conventional role in the regional adjustment process for non manual workers

tax evasion and self employment in a high tax country evidence from sweden self employed individuals have arguably greater opportunities than wage earners to underreport their incomes this article uses recent swedish income and expenditure data to examine the extent of underreporting of income among self employed individuals a key hypothesis is that underreporting of incomes among the self employed would be visible in the data as excess food consumption for a given level of observed income our results confirm the underreporting hypothesis in particular we estimate that households with at least one self employed member underreport their total incomes by around 30 under reporting appears to be much more prevalent among self employed people with unincorporated businesses as among those with incorporated businesses

linking migration and mobility individual and contextual effects in housing markets in the uk clark w a v and huang y 2004 linking migration and mobility individual and contextual effects in housing markets in the uk regional studies38 617 628 most migration work continues to separate long and short distance moves and their outcomes but clearly they are part of a complex process of relocation across different scales while we know that long distance moves are largely driven by labour market differences and moves at the local scale are the way in which households translate those long distance moves into residential satisfaction in local housing markets we know very little about the link between the two processes and their likelihoods some studies have suggested that long distance moves are followed by local adjustment moves at an early point after the relocation this paper evaluates those empirical findings in the context of the british housing market it takes up a number of previously unexamined issues related to these linkages and to the timing of the links between the two moves

ten propositions in uk housing macroeconomics an overview of the 1980s and early 1990s during the last ten years macroeconomists have increasingly come to realise that there are important interactions between housing and the wider economy in some cases this realisation has come too late to avoid the severe oscillations in the economy that have characterised the period since the mid 1980s this paper uses a macroeconometric model specifically designed to capture the interactions in order to reflect on the experience of the 1980s and early 1990s and to draw theoretical empirical and policy conclusions in terms of ten propositions

social security privatization a structure for analysis this paper identifies the key economic issues that must be addressed in the debate over a privatized social security system we examine a two pillar plan the first pillar would consist of a demogrant a small indexed pension of the same dollar amount for all retirees who had contributed to the system over a full lifetime of work the second pillar would consist of a fully funded individual defined contribution account financed by payroll taxes held in financial institutions and directed by participants we explore how such a system would affect the risks households face how it would alter the distribution of income and how it might influence household behavior including incentives to work and save and portfolio choices we also examine macroeconomic issues how the transition to a private plan would occur and what the likely effects would be on national saving we conclude that a two pillar system offers several positive features namely a reduction in political risk an increase in household portfolio choice and improved work incentives disadvantages include less redistributiveness and national risk sharing and increased administrative costs this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

sectoral transformation and labour market flows in this chapter we examine the dynamics of adjustment in the labour market and in particular the movement of workers between industries it is often assumed that the speed with which the labour market must adjust has increased due to globalisation and or technological change if this is the case then these forces may be responsible for greater instability in the workplace the displacement of growing numbers of especially unskilled workers from declining sectors longer periods of unemployment and wage losses

housing tenure and labor market impacts the search goes on abstract we develop two search theoretic models emphasizing firm entry to examine the oswald hypothesis the idea that homeownership is linked to inferior labor market outcomes and compare their predictions to three extant theories the five models have surprisingly different predictions about the labor market at both the aggregate and micro levels using a suitable instrumental variable strategy we estimate both micro and aggregate level regression models of wages and unemployment and compare the estimates to those predictions we find that while homeowners are less likely to be unemployed they also have lower wages all else equal compared to renters in addition higher regional homeownership rates are associated with a greater probability of individual worker unemployment and higher wages the outcome of a horserace between our new search theoretic models is mixed the wage posting model predicts observed unemployment impacts while a bargaining variant does a better job explaining observed wages and aggregate labor market outcomes overall we conclude that firm behavior is important for understanding the labor market impacts of homeownership because this is the case regional homeownership rates are not good instruments for individual tenure choice in empirical work and while individual homeowners may have inferior labor market outcomes as compared to renters from the viewpoint of society higher homeownership rates may result in greater job creation and overall production among other benefits

staunching emigration from east germany age and the determinants of migration following the unification of germany in 1990 eastern wages and unemployment both rose rapidly i demonstrate that rising wages reduced eastern emigration greatly while rising unemployment had little effect this reflects the behavior of the young who are very sensitive to source region wages and relatively insensitive to source unemployment i show that most of the effect of source unemployment comes from the contemporaneous effect on those laid off who are more likely to be older i find that compared to stayers young emigrants are much more skilled older emigrants are slightly more skilled and commuters are not more skilled as measured by education and pre move wages my conclusions are based on a comparison of results from aggregate inter state migration data and individual data from the eastern sample of the german socio economic panel for 1990 2000 jel j61 p23

housing tenure job mobility and unemployment in the uk this article examines the effects of housing tenure on individuals job and unemployment durations in the uk we examine job to job transitions and transitions from unemployment we take account of whether or not the arrival of a job was synonymous with a non local residential move tenure endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity we find that home ownership is a constraint for the employed and public renting is more of a constraint for the unemployed employed home owners have a lower transition into employment with a distant move and unemployed public renters have a lower probability of gaining employment in more distant labour markets the nature of housing tenure has long been blamed for discouraging spatial mobility and thereby having an impact upon labour market outcomes in the early 1980s in the uk the main culprit was deemed to be local authority housing mccormick 1983 hughes and mccormick 1981 1987 examined the longer distance migration rates of those in local authority housing and found that they had lower longer distance migration rates compared to both owner occupiers and those in private rented accommodation although the latest research suggests that these effects may have lessened hughes and mccormick 2000 the relative immobility of public renters may stem from public housing rents being below market rates the restricted transferability within public housing high waiting lists and security of tenure public renters are then locked in and face higher costs if they accept a job that involves a long distance move more recently the blame has been pinned on private home ownership oswald 1996 1999 in a series of papers using macro time series and cross section data for oecd countries and regions within a number of those countries has argued that home own ership causes unemployment one explanation revolves around the reduced mobility of home owners relative to private renters owing to the costs of buying and selling homes subsequent and arguably more sophisticated micro econometric tests have placed doubt upon the alleged relationship coulson and fisher 2002 for the us find that unemployment duration is shorter for home owners relative to renters though neither is unobserved heterogeneity nor the endogenous nature of housing tenure accounted for van leuvensteijn and koning 2004 do account for the endogeneity of home ownership and find using dutch data that employed home owners are less likely to become unemployed relative to employed renters more recently munch et al 2006a using danish data find shorter unemployment spells amongst home owners compared to renters after controlling for the endogeneity of home ownership

an expenditure based estimate of britain s black economy abstract we estimate the size of britain s black economy defined narrowly as unreported taxable income by using income and expenditure data drawn from the 1982 family expenditure survey our working assumptions are that all income groups report expenditure on food correctly employees in employment report income correctly and that the self employed under report their income we estimate food exependiture equations for all groups and then invert them to arrive at the conclusion that on average true self employment income is 1 55 times as much as reported self employment income this implies that the size of the black economy is about 5 5 percent of gdp

is entrepreneurship a route out of deprivation frankish j s roberts r g coad a and storey d j is entrepreneurship a route out of deprivation regional studies this paper investigates whether entrepreneurship constitutes a route out of deprivation for those living in deprived areas the measure of income wealth used is based on an analysis of improvements in an individual s residential address the data consist of information on over 800 000 individuals and come from the customer records of a major uk bank comparing business owners with non owners the results suggest that the benefits of business ownership are found across the wealth distribution hence entrepreneurship can be a route out of deprivation

the assessment productivity and competitiveness in british manufacturing this issue of the oxford review examines productivity and competitiveness in british manufac turing the simplest and most widely used measure of productivity is output per head from this definition sprout at once the horns of a dilemma for an economy facing unemployment on the present scale for a given rate of expansion of output the higher the rate of productivity growth the greater the decline in employment or at least the smaller its growth on the other hand in an economy open to international competition a high rate of productivity growth relative to that of other countries is the long term key to achieving the favourable international competitive po sition necessary to sustain growth and a low level of unemployment

do council housing policies reduce migration between regions data from the 1973 general household survey of great britain are used to examine whether the council house system which currently provides a dwelling for one british family in every three tends to discourage long distance migration controls are introduced for various socioeconomic variables and the importance of occupation sector of employment age and education in explaining migration is discussed comparisons are also made between local movements and long distance migration the findings indicate that over longer distances council tenants have much lower migration rates than owner occupiers

the interdependence of geographical migration with job and housing mobility in london congdon p 1988 the interdependence of geographic migration with job and housing mobility in london reg studies 22 81 93 a multinomial logit model is developed to analyse the association between residential migration within and from london with employment and tenure mobility migration is shown to interact more strongly with tenure change than career shifts and with changes of workplace as against changes in occupation in general the selectivity of migration in terms of age and income partly reflects such interactions implying biased estimates of selectivity in single equation migration models while occupational mobility and job linked migration are higher among lower income workers they are positively related to educational resources confirming human capital models of job search however gender and ethnic differentials in occupational and tenurial migration suggest segmentation of housing and labour markets congdon p 1988 l interdependance de la migration spatiale et de la mobilite par r

labour mobility and the changing housing market labour mobility as a concept is not as straightforward as it first appears and has different meanings in different contexts mobility as a policy concern arose in britain in the 1980s and assumed a particular form it was often confined to a discussion of geographical movement between labour markets and the constraints imposed on potential job seekers by their tenure position mobility can indeed be expressed in this way but this captures only one aspect of job movement at other times there are concerns with industrial and occupational mobility and notions such as job changing labour turnover and flows also feature in employment policy discussions this article raises the question as to whether mobility propensity is an attribute of the individual or the post that the employee might have or seek the analysis offered here suggests the latter and accordingly an alternative explanation of labour and housing market interactions is provided the article is written in five parts it begins by critically ass

the missing piece in policy analysis social security reform this lecture discusses the economic losses that result from an unfunded social security retirement system and the potential gain from shifting to a funded system the social security payroll tax distorts labor supply and the form in which compensation is paid although each individual s benefits are linked to that individual s previous payroll tax payments the low equilibrium rate of return inherent in an unfunded system implies a net payroll tax that causes distortions the resulting deadweight loss is 1 of each year s gdp in perpetuity an amount equal to 20 of payroll tax revenue and a 50 increase in deadweight loss of the personal income tax also there is the loss of investment income resulting from forcing employees to accept the low implicit return of an unfunded program rather than the much higher return paid on private saving or in a funded social security program the present value of the annual losses from using an unfunded system exceeds the benefit to those who received windfall transfers when the program began and when it expanded shifting to a funded program cannot reverse the crowding out of capital that has already occurred recognizing the existing unfunded obligation only makes that piece of the national debt explicit but shifting to a funded program limits crowding out of capital formation to the amount that already occurred future increases in annual saving that result from economic growth are able to earn the higher rate of return on real capital the present value of these gains is equivalent to a perpetuity of more than 2 of gdp a year the combi nation of improved labor market incentives and higher real return on saving has a net present value gain of more than 15 trillion an amount equivalent to three percent of each future year s gdp forever this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

unemployment and the inter regional mobility of labour the relationship between unemployment and interregional labor migration in the united kingdom is explored using data from the labour force survey for 1984 and 1977 the authors conclude that the experience of unemployment increases the likelihood of migration and that households in areas of high unemployment are more likely to move they also find that during periods of higher overall unemployment migration propensities are reduced annotation

the influence of wages and house prices on british interregional migration decisions this paper considers the paradox of a consistent net outflow of people from areas of high job creation and wages over the past 20 years and suggests the explanation that different individuals have different motivations for moving the labour force survey indicates that workers moving for job reasons have migrated to areas of low unemployment and high nominal wages however the inflow into such areas has been more than compensated for by an outflow of people moving for non job reasons a logit analysis of destination choice indicates that job movers are attracted to areas with high wages but are not affected by high house prices in such areas in contrast active non job movers are deterred from areas of high house prices regional house price differences do not influence the destination choice of homemakers or the terminally sick but they do influence the destination choice of retirees all groups prefer to travel the least distance when moving

a framework for housing market area delineation principles and application a review is presented of the requirements of a framework for the delineation of housing market areas hmas in the context of undertaking a housing market assessment this prompts adoption of a methodology that features an iterative application of information obtained from estate agents to identify hma cores and a functional regionalisation of 2001 census interward migration flows the approach is demonstrated using data for north west england the concluding section explores some implications of the hma framework for policy and future research

spatial dynamics of the housing market an interurban perspective a major unproven hypothesis in housing economics is that regional ripple effects are caused by household migration between regions this paper examines household migration and price ripples at the level of local housing markets driven partly by the fact that such migration linkages are likely to be more pronounced between local rather than regional housing markets following a review of regional housing market studies several hypotheses linking the existence of lead lag relationships and cointegration with the scale of migratory linkages between local housing market areas lhmas are proposed using private housing transactions data for strathclyde a sub region of scotland the paper identifies two clusters of lhmas that differ in terms of their migratory linkages with glasgow the hypothesised leading housing market of the sub region tests for lead lag relationships and cointegration confirm the link between migration and house price changes

is the uk balance of payments sustainable the uk current account deficit john muellbauer and anthony murphy the uk has a large and persistent current account deficit policy makers argue that the deficit is easily financed temporary and therefore not a sign of structural weakness we examine the conditions in which it is appropriate for a country to overspend its current income with the intention of repaying loans out of future income these include an increase in international capital mobility larger net holdings of foreign assets and expectations of faster productivity growth all three apply to the uk so official reasoning is in part correct even so for several decades there has been a trend deterioration of uk trade performance most markedly in manufacturing and we detect no underlying improvement in the 1980s we highlight structural deficiencies in both demand and supply on the demand side we show the importance of rising house prices and easier consumer credit in fuelling the consumer boom to an unwarranted extent this we trace to unjustifiable subsidies to house ownership on the supply side we stress vastly inadequate investment in skill formation education and physical capital these structural deficiencies lead us to a less optimistic view than official policy we draw the policy lessons for the uk and consider whether continental europe will face similar problems as financial markets are liberalized

houses and or jobs ownership and the labour market in belgian districts isebaert d heylen f and smolders c houses and or jobs ownership and the labour market in belgian districts regional studies a j oswald argues that high rates of homeownership may imply inferior labour market outcomes using a panel of forty two belgian districts since the 1970s and accounting for other key determinants of employment this paper confirms the oswald hypothesis a 1 percentage point rise in the rate of ownership in a district implies a statistically significant fall in the employment rate by about 0 35 percentage points this negative effect declines in the fraction of the high skilled in a district the results underscore the importance of controlling for unobserved district specific fixed effects and common time effects and of appropriately dealing with endogeneity

the private rented sector a characteristics approach the paper applies the characteristics approach developed with respect to the labour market in order to examine why the percentage of households who rent privately varies across the country regression analysis is used to show that the distribution of private renting is closely related to the distribution of particular household characteristics and that the relationship varies systematically between sub sectors certain local market factors are also shown to be important particularly with respect to the furnished sector within a given urban area the relative size of the rented sector appears to be even more strongly related to household characteristics certain implications for spatial policy are then discussed

optimal income tax under the threat of migration by top income earners we examine how allowing individuals to emigrate to pay lower taxes changes the optimal nonlinear income tax scheme in a mirrleesian economy an individual emigrates if his domestic utility is less than his utility abroad net of migration costs utilities and costs both depending on productivity a simple formula that complements saez s formula obtained in closed economy is derived for the marginal tax rates faced by top income earners it depends on the labour elasticity the tax rate abroad and the migration costs expressed as a fraction of the utility obtained abroad the rawlsian marginal tax rates obtained for the whole population illustrate a curse of the middle skilled simulations are provided for the french economy

the migration decisions of young men in great britain an analysis of migration in the united kingdom of males aged 16 to 24 is presented using data from the 1979 european commission labour force survey the author constructs a disaggregate choice model that incorporates spatial aspects of migration decision making the results indicate that migration decisions of young men are significantly affected by family circumstances housing tenure educational attainment labor force status and occupation distinct differences are noted between migration patterns of economically active job changers other economically active young men and those out of work

migration intentions in the u k which households want to migrate and which succeed the authors extend their earlier study of the impact of the council housing system on migration in the united kingdom in particular they examine the hypothesis that individuals differ in various unobserved ways and that personal characteristics that result in individuals becoming tenants may also discourage migration data are from the general household survey for 1973 and 1974 and pertain to both migration intentions and past migration the extent to which house tenure and other household characteristics affect the probability that a household embarking on a housing search will be successful in realizing its migration intentions is explored in addition the importance of both individual and aggregate local unemployment in determining migration intentions is discussed

residential mobility housing equity and the labour market henley a g 1998 residential mobility housing equity and the labour market economic journal 108 447 414 427

how different are the british in their willingness to move evidence from international social survey data drinkwater s and ingram p how different are the british in their willingness to move evidence from international social survey data regional studies this paper analyses people s willingness to move using data from the 1995 british social attitudes survey and international social survey programme the personal characteristics and sub regional indicators that are important in explaining the willingness to move within britain are identified it is also found that the willingness to move is only higher in a few other countries including the usa the equivalent desire to move is found to be much lower in eastern european countries and in several other european union member states compositional effects such as age and education are generally important in explaining differences in attitudes towards migration in comparison with other western economies however structural effects such as institutions history and culture tend to play a more dominant role in explaining differences compared with countries

the social and private micro level consequences of homeownership abstract this paper reviews the literature that describes the micro level economic and social consequences of homeownership we adopt an interdisciplinary approach and include studies from economics sociology geography political science psychology and other disciplines our focus is on the set of consequences of homeownership in developed countries our list of potential outcomes of homeownership includes the impact on household wealth and portfolio choice mobility labor force participation urban structure and segregation home maintenance political and social activities health demographics self esteem and child outcomes there is substantial evidence that homeownership has important effects on some household behaviors and outcomes however we find that much of the past 30 year s literature on consequences of homeowning is deficient from a theoretical or econometric perspective we suggest solutions and identify research gaps present in the literature

self employment in the uk regions the significant regional variations which exist in the rate of self employment among uk males are highlighted and attempts made to explain them using pooled crosssection time series data for the period 1973 93 it is found that in the long run regional rates of self employmentare a function of the real value of net housing wealth and the industry composition of regional gdp however a significant proportion of regional variations in self employment can only be explained by regional fixed effects which reflect fundamental long term influences which make some regions more fertile environments for self employment than others

commuting in search of jobs and residences abstract this paper introduces a model which includes residential job moving and commuting behavior when labor and housing markets are characterized by market imperfections imperfect information and moving costs we examine the consequences of these market imperfections on commuting behavior an empirical analysis of commuting behavior indicates that workers commute less if they receive more job offers

aging pension reform and capital flows a multi country simulation model we present a quantitative analysis of the effects of population aging and pension reform on international capital markets first demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country second this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old age provision towards more pre funding third while the patterns of population aging are similar in most countries timing and initial conditions differ substantially hence to the extent that capital is internationally mobile population aging will induce capital flows between countries all three effects influence the rate of return to capital and interact with the demand for capital in production and with labor supply in order to quantify these effects we develop a computational general equilibrium model we feed this multi country overlapping generations model with detailed long term demographic projections for seven world regions our simulations indicate that capital flows from fast aging regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings we also conclude that closed economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility this version 25 august 2004

the influence of pensions on job mobility in this paper we construct a model of the loss of firm specific capital suffered by employees with occupational pensions who change job the simplest loss function may be represented as the product of job tenure and years to retirement estimates of logit equations for individual job search in great britain suggest that the effect of pension status can be satisfactorily captured by this simple loss function these equations and others for job turnover indicate that membership of an occupational pension scheme substantially reduces job mobility

the reform of pension systems winners and losers across generations in the united kingdom and germany in this paper we perform simulations with a stylized model of the united kingdom and germany to show which generations might be gainers and which losers from a transition from an unfunded to a funded state pension system we show that it is likely that more than one generation will be direct losers as a result of a transition especially in germany if more than one generation are direct losers then in order for those generations not to be net losers the chain of bequests in the initial equilibrium needs to satisfy a simple condition which we derive and analyse

a behavioural model of the supply of re lets of council housing in england the supply of council housing over recent years has become increasingly dependent on re lets of the existing stock due to sharp reductions in new building by local authorities this paper sets out a hypothesis for the determinants of re let supply in terms of the characteristics of council tenants and local market factors this hypothesis is tested for english local authorities between 1980 and 1987 using correlation and regression analyses the behavioural model thus developed can explain 60 per cent of the variation in re let rates between districts outside london the most important factors are shown to be the household structure of existing council tenants and the level of house prices in the local private housing market

the mobility of immigrants and natives evidence from internal migration following job displacement boman a the mobility of immigrants and natives evidence from internal migration following job displacement regional studies in times of change in the labour market differences in migratory behaviour between groups affect the labour market outcome of these groups one important group in society is that of immigrants for which human capital migration theory presents two potentially conflicting hypotheses one is based on immigrants having less location specific human capital increasing their probability of migration the other is based on ethnicity immigrants living in ethnic enclaves have higher costs of leaving the enclave reducing their probability of migration this paper disentangles and finds support for both hypotheses using high quality data on a wide range of variables for essentially all individuals involuntarily displaced due to closures or substantial cutbacks of swedish workplaces in 1987 and 1988 boman a la mobilite des immigres et de la population autochtone des preuves provenant

a theory of discouraged borrowers this paper examines the implications for the sme financing market of application costs that vary between firms and of imperfect screening of applicants by banks under these conditions discouraged borrowers can exist these are good borrowers who do not apply for a bank loan because they feel they will be rejected the paper shows that under a range of assumptions the scale of discouragement in an economy depends upon the screening error of the banks the scale of application costs and the extent to which the bank interest rate differs from that charged by the moneylender discouragement is shown to be at a maximum where there is some but not perfect information

nominal loss aversion housing equity constraints and household mobility evidence from the united states abstract this paper exploits the recent variation in us house prices to examine the effect of equity constraints and nominal loss aversion on household mobility detailed data from the 1985 1996 national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy79 were matched with house price data from 149 metropolitan areas to estimate instrumental variables linear probability and semi parametric proportional hazard models of intra metropolitan mobility household mobility is significantly influenced by nominal loss aversion there is little evidence that low equity because of fallen house prices constrains mobility