have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time abstract previous studies have reported mixed results regarding the success of technical trading rules in currency markets abnormal returns were observed in many studies using data up to the mid 1980s while more recent studies generally report less success for technical trading rules this paper tests whether moving average trading rule profits have declined over the period from 1971 to 2000 if so previous profits may represent a temporary inefficiency that has since been eliminated in the currency markets the hypothesis is tested using 18 exchange rate series over a longer time period than in previous studies rules are optimized for successive 5 year in sample periods from 1971 to 1995 and tested over subsequent 5 year out of sample periods results show that risk adjusted trading rule profits have declined over time from an average of over 3 in the late 1970s and early 1980s to about zero in the 1990s thus market inefficiencies reported in previous studies may have been only temporary inefficiencies

quantitative analysis of sustainable energy strategies in china this paper conducted quantitative study on china s sustainable energy strategies by using the econometric method gdp growth will be over 6 annually between 2005 and 2030 the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in a lot of difficulties for energy security environment protection and co2 emissions reductions for the sustainable development more comprehensive strategies should be adopted including improvement in energy efficiency with highest priority enhancing development of renewable energy and promoting structural adjustment in transport sector etc at the same time international cooperation such as establishing asia energy and environment agency towards asia community is also an important strategic option

capital market development in china abstract this paper examines why and how capital markets have developed in a low income socialist country it shows that the development is the response of economic agents operating under a more market oriented economic environment with a highly regulated and inefficient banking system this development has presented new policy challenges and opportunities the paper argues that the developmental effects of the emergence of capital markets in china can be as important as its impact on improving allocative efficiency and resource mobilization

intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market this paper examines the out of sample performance of intraday technical trading strategies selected using two methodologies a genetic program and an optimized linear forecasting model when realistic transaction costs and trading hours are taken into account we find no evidence of excess returns to the trading rules derived with either methodology thus our results are consistent with market efficiency we do however find that the trading rules discover some remarkably stable patterns in the data

the substitutability of non fossil energy potential carbon emission reduction and energy shadow prices in china abstract the rapidly increasing consumption of energy and fossil fuel dominated energy structure have caused great pressure on energy security and carbon reduction policies in china and the chinese government has attempted to substitute fossil with non fossil energy to investigate the feasibility of replacing fossil energy with non fossil energy in china we apply an input distance function to estimate the substitutability of non fossil energy for fossil energy and compare shadow prices the result confirms the feasibility of substituting non fossil energy for fossil energy we then divide the non fossil energy into nuclear energy and renewable energy and find that nuclear energy is more suitable than renewable energy to substitute for fossil energy the shadow price ratio of non fossil to fossil energy is 268 41 on average in the study period the ratio experiences several fluctuations and shows a declining trend at the end of the study period implying that improving energy structure in china is very promising

vietnam assessing the achievements of doi moi following a decade of reform and the 1988 89 stabilisation programme vietnam appears well positioned to become a new east asian dragon below the main macroeconomic dimensions of the reform process are examined in particular improved terms of trade for food agriculture is seen as a key determinant of stabilisation more generally it is argued that the authorities have rightly given broad priority to macro stability over micro efficiency while the process of institutional change is necessarily a lengthy one rising domestic and foreign savings will help sustain rapid growth mitigating any adverse distributional consequences of reform the vietnamese experience clearly contains lessons for other market transition economies

why the quantity theory of money is not applicable to china together with a tested theory that is using data for the period 1952 88 this paper argues that any statistical relationship between money and prices is not evidence of causation running from money to prices but is due to the consistent nature of planners reactions to purchasing power imbalances this is not an econometric study historical institutional and simple statistical analysis is used an outline descriptive picture of money development for this period in china is offered in the light of the simple theory applied here parallels with post keynesian monetary theory are suggested two appendixes explain the narrow money supply process and present all the data used copyright 1992 by oxford university press

energy consumption and gdp in developing countries a cointegrated panel analysis in this paper we re investigate the co movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in 18 developing countries using data for the period 1975 to 2001 recently developed tests for the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based error correction models are employed the empirical results provide clear support of a long run cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect the long run relationship is estimated using a full modified ols the evidence shows that long run and short run causalities run from energy consumption to gdp but not vice versa this result indicates that energy conservation may harm economic growth in developing countries regardless of being transitory or permanent

the dilemmas of market socialism capital market reform in china part i bonds this two part article analyses the attempts to reform the socialist financial system in china by diversifying financial assets and introducing capital markets the approach used is that of political economy in the sense of elucidating the interplay between political and economic interests actors and issues in the reform process part i discusses the issue of bonds by governments and enterprises although the reform era has seen gradual progress towards something resembling a bond market in terms of a diversification of bond types and growing competition between bond issues there is no evidence that this has improved allocative efficiency in the economy rather bonds have functioned as one instrument in a complex struggle for resources between political institutional and economic actors in the context of a continuing shortage economy this competitive system falls far short of a true market rather it embodies powerful systemic factors reflecting the basic structural and institutional features o

the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in g 11 countries revisited abstract this paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development that is is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries a new granger non causality testing procedure developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 journal of econometrics 66 225 250 is applied to re investigate the relationship if any between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries the results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other except in the case of the united kingdom germany and sweden where a neutral relationship is found bi directional causality in the united states and uni directional running from energy consumption to gdp in canada belgium the netherlands and switzerland are found this indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries further the causality relationship appears to be uni directional but reversed for france italy and japan which implies that in these three countries energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

path towards achieving of china s 2020 carbon emission reduction target a discussion of low carbon energy policies at province level abstract following the announcement of the china s 2020 national target for the reduction of the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gdp by 40 45 compared with 2005 levels chinese provincial governments prepared to restructure provincial energy policy and plan their contribution to realizing the state reduction target focusing on fujian and anhui provinces as case studies this paper reviews two contrasting policies as a means for meeting the national reduction target that of the coastal province of fujian proposes to do so largely through the development of nuclear power whilst the coal rich province of anhui proposes to do so through its energy consumption rate rising at a lower rate than that of the rise in gdp in both cases renewable energy makes up a small proportion of their proposed 2020 energy structures the conclusion discusses in depth concerns about nuclear power policy energy efficiency energy consumption strategy and problems in developing renewable energy

technical trading rules in the european monetary system abstract using genetic programming we find trading rules that generate significant excess returns for three of four ems exchange rates over the out of sample period 1986 1996 permitting the rules to use information about the interest rate differential proved to be important the reduction in volatility resulting from the imposition of a narrower band may reduce trading rule profitability our results cannot be duplicated by commonly used moving average rules filter rules or by two rules designed to exploit known features of target zone rates there is no evidence that the excess returns are compensation for bearing systematic risk

monetary management and intergovernmental relations in china abstract this paper argues that the chinese central bank per se is not to be blamed for the excessive monetary growth that created repeated high inflation rather the institutional features of the current central local monetary relations generate this result endogenously a central local monetary game is presented as a theory to explain how local governments take advantage of the central bank s lack of commitment to a preannounced credit policy by forcing the central bank to revise the credit ceilings upward thus creating inflation this game also explains how reform cycles the alternating of decentralization and recentralization over the past decade could be a consequence of the central local monetary interaction and why reform cycles have coincided with the monetary cycles the implications of the 1994 monetary reform are assessed under the framework of the monetary game

reforming china s financial system and monetary policies a sovereign remedy for locally initiated investment expansion abstract this paper studies the efficacy of china s financial reforms in helping the central monetary authority to achieve its goals of macroeconomic stabilization a local local monetary game is presented which examines the investment competition between local governments in different hypothetical financial settings it is shown that direct means of credit control and indirect instruments of monetary policy have both strengths and weaknesses suggesting that their combination would be desirable in macroeconomic management under the new financial arrangement

an analysis on the short term sectoral competitiveness impact of carbon tax in china abstract market based instruments particularly carbon tax have recently drawn the attention of chinese government by their cost effective contribution to the achievement of china s climate targets most of the recent policy proposals have focused on its long term impact however particularly for policy makers both long term and short term effects of carbon tax would be necessary when determining tax rates we provided a detailed analysis of short term impacts of carbon tax on sectoral competitiveness in this paper we divided china s economy into 36 sectors based on its 2007 input output table in order to examine the ratio of carbon tax added costs to sector gdp we were thus able to determine the impact level of a carbon tax on each sector we then divided the sectoral trade impact into domestic competitiveness with regards to foreign imported products and international competitiveness external to the chinese domestic market we found that a high tax level 100 yuan t co2 may necessitate compensatory measures to certain highly affected industries and that a low tax rate 10 yuan t co2 would generate few competitiveness problems for all industries and may therefore be considered as an appropriate starting point

how might china achieve its 2020 emissions target a scenario analysis of energy consumption and co2 emissions using the system dynamics model abstract according to the chinese government s co 2 reduction commitment the production and consumption of traditional and renewable energy in china from 2001 to 2012 this paper forecasts the energy consumption gross co 2 emissions and co 2 emission intensity in china from 2013 to 2020 via system dynamics simulation coupled with the energy system and renewable energy policy factors the effects of different economic growth rates and policy factors on the energy consumption were estimated the results showed that in different economic growth rates scenarios total energy consumption and co 2 emissions increased by 36 140 75 kwh and more than 10 000 billion kg in 10 gdp growth rate scenario than in the 7 scenario in 2020 the co 2 emission per gdp decreased by 52 in 2020 as compared to 2005 under the scenario of 10 gdp growth rate under different renewable energy policy factors scenarios the coal energy consumption decreased by 2 3 in scenario of 5 policy factor as compared to 1 policy factor scenario the co 2 emissions reduced by 3321 94 billion kg in 2020 under the scenario of 5 policy factor as compared to that in the scenario of 1 policy factor the co 2 emission per gdp reduced by 47 50 based on the 2005 level in different scenarios of renewable energy policies we found that with an increase in gdp total energy consumption and co 2 emissions increased in the base scenario higher economic growth rates led to an increase in energy consumption including both the traditional and renewable energy resources in stark contrast to total co 2 emission however co 2 emission intensity decreased with an increase in economic growth rate the renewable energy policy improved the renewable energy development reduced co 2 emissions and co 2 emission intensity it was more effective in energy saving and co 2 reduction than the high growth rate scenarios the results indicated that china is highly likely to achieve its co 2 emission reduction goal under different simulated scenarios besides the energy distribution was similar in different scenarios coal was the major energy source which amounted to more than 70 of the total energy consumption finally we conclude with important policy implications according to our simulations results

a theory of shortage in socialist economies based on the soft budget constraint this paper attributes shortages of goods in socialist economies to the soft financial constraints that firms in such economies face a soft budget constraint problem arises when the state bank is unable to make a credible commitment not to refinance bad projects once some investment costs are sunk in such a situation if a consumer good is also demanded by firms as an input and the seller cannot separate firms from households the high market clearing price would lead to welfare losses because too many bad projects would start and crowd out household consumption copyright 1994 by american economic association

policy burdens accountability and the soft budget constraint in a socialist economy when a state owned enterprise soe incurs losses the government often provides it with additional funding cuts its taxes and offers other compensations coincidentally the managers of an soe also expect to receive financial assistance from the state such a phenomenon is called the soft budget constraint sbc a term coined by janos kornai 1986 kornai attributes many problems in a socialist economy to the existence of the sbc to achieve successful reform of both the soe s and socialist economies it is imperative to eliminate the sbc however the sbc phenomenon continues to exist in transitional economies even after soe s are privatized world bank 1996 p 45 there is a large literature on the sbc mathias dewatripont et al 1996 and eric maskin 1996 provide surveys on the recent literature according to kornai 1998 there are two types of explanations for the existence of the sbc the exogenous and endogenous explanations of the first type attribute the existence of the sbc to various exogenous reasons including the paternalism of a socialist state and the government s aims for job creation or for gaining political support kornai 1986 explanations of the second type view the sbc as an endogenous phenomenon arising from a time inconsistency problem dewatripont and maskin 1995 for an inefficient uncompleted investment project the state or creditor may have incentives to refinance the investment because the marginal benefit of refinancing exceeds the marginal cost of abandoning it yingyi qian 1994 attributed the shortage of goods in socialist economies to the sbc based on such a timeinconsistency argument in this paper we provide another explanation for the prevalence of the sbc in socialist and transitional economies we will argue that the sbc is rooted in the state s accountability problem the traditional stalinist system was designed to facilitate the establishment of certain strategic soe s which were not viable in a market system to establish the nonviable soe s a socialist government distorted the prices of all kinds of inputs and of outputs and used administrative measures to allocate these inputs and outputs according to plans however due to information and coordination problems the state could make wrong decisions regarding investment production and fail to deliver necessary materials and inputs in time consequently the state instead of soe s was accountable for the failures and needed to allocate additional credits and other assistance to the soe s in order to complete the investment and production as such the sbc arose after the transition to a market economy many strategic firms still remain nonviable in a market economy for strategic purposes the state needs to support these finns moreover most firms in a transitional economy carry many types of policy burdens inherited from the pretransition system lin et al 1998 because the state is accountable for the losses arising from policy burdens the sbc phenomenon persists in a market economy the state s attempts to build nonviable industry and the state s policy burdens on enterprises will also lead to sbc

do momentum based strategies still work in foreign currency markets this paper examines the performance of momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets we find the well documented profitability of momentum strategies during the 1970s and the 1980s has continued throughout the 1990s our approach and findings are insensitive to the specification of the trading rule and the base currency for analysis finally we show that the performance is not due to a time varying risk premium but rather depends on the underlying autocorrelation structure of the currency returns in sum the results lend further support to prior momentum studies on equities the profitability to momentum based strategies holds for currencies as well

the temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention intervention does not generate technical trading profits abstract this paper characterizes the temporal pattern of trading rule returns and official intervention for australian german swiss and u s data to investigate whether intervention generates technical trading rule profits the data reject the hypothesis that intervention generates inefficiencies from which technical rules profit in particular high frequency data show that abnormally high trading rule returns precede german swiss and u s intervention australian intervention precedes high trading rule returns but trading intervention patterns make it implausible that intervention actually generates those returns rather intervention responds to exchange rate trends from which trading rules have recently profited

who shapes china s carbon intensity and how a demand side decomposition analysis abstract as national efforts to decouple carbon emissions from economic growth intensify policymakers need more specific sub national information about the sources and reduction potentials of carbon intensity this study presents a demand side decomposition of china s carbon intensity to its regions final demand types and economic sectors based on a predefined aggregate embodied intensity aei indicator i e the ratio of embodied emissions to embodied value added we find that china s carbon intensity has been largely shaped by developed provinces capital investment demand and the construction sector however less developed provinces consumption demand and the services sector have played increasingly important roles wealthy provinces generally experienced much lower aeis and higher aei reductions compared to poor provinces from 2007 to 2012 mainly owing to the provincial differences in final demand structure and sectoral structure coastal region s emission reduction efforts at both production and demand sides were the main contributor to china s decrease in carbon intensity during the period while interior region s structural degradation in demand partially offset the decrease our results suggest that allocating national carbon intensity targets based on aei and adjusting the final demand structure of central western provinces would greatly benefit for china to achieve its ambitious carbon intensity target by 2030

an econometric study on china s economy energy and environment to the year 2030 abstract an integrated econometric model consisting of macroeconomic sub model energy sub model and environment sub model was developed and used to perform a long term simulation study for china in the coming 30 years the potential of gdp growth will be around 7 annually and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in insurmountable difficulties for energy security air protection and co2 emission reductions for the sustainable development more comprehensive measures should be adopted including improvements in energy efficiency more rapid energy switching from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources imposing carbon tax development of clean coal technology establishment of strategic petroleum stockpiling enforcement of air protection etc

too many mothers in law abstract developing countries with low tax capacity may rely on predation to finance government functions government predation in turn is often accused of imposing a choking effect on state owned enterprises soes contributing to the latter s poor performance we formalize this choking effect as a problem of inefficient predation that arises from time inconsistency and show that having multiple government bodies supervising the same soe may mitigate this problem our theory provides an efficiency rationale for the chinese style of decentralization before 1978 and challenges the wisdom of china s recent enterprise reform that attempted to consolidate supervisory power

dea approach for unified efficiency measurement assessment of japanese fossil fuel power generation this study discusses a new dea data envelopment analysis approach to measure the unified operational and environmental efficiency of energy firms it is widely known that they produce not only desirable good outputs e g electricity but also undesirable bad outputs e g co2 as a result of their plant operations the proposed approach incorporates an output separation desirable and undesirable outputs for the performance evaluation of energy firms in addition to the output separation this study separates inputs into energy and non energy inputs consequently the proposed approach incorporates not only the output separation but also the input separation within a computational framework of dea non radial measurement this study compares the proposed approach with other previous dea approaches used for the performance evaluation of energy firms after the methodological comparison this study applies the proposed approach for measuring the unified efficiency of japanese fossil fuel power generation this empirical study confirms that the implementation of kyoto protocol 2005 has not been effective on the unified efficiency of japanese fossil fuel power generation during the observed period 2004 2008 although the empirical result is inconsistent with the current japanese environmental policy under kyoto protocol it contains policy implications for guiding the future direction of japanese environmental policy on the electric power industry

challenges and countermeasures of china s energy security china is now a major consumer and importer of energy and its choices and policies will increasingly affect the rest of the world this paper analyses the key features of china s energy policy as it faces the prospect of possible challenges to its energy security given the increasing reliance on fuel imports and the need to transform its energy to meet the requirements of a modern fast growing economy the paper examines whether the current energy mix is appropriate and sustainable and considers the china s policymakers new emphasis on energy efficiency conservation renewable energy and the shift to natural gas the primary energy source it examines the internal and external constraints on china s energy policy and considers the strategic dilemmas arising from china s increasing involvement in international energy markets it concludes that both the domestic and international implications of china s search for energy security will confront policymakers with hard choices that will affect not only energy policy but also china s geopolitical grand strategy

the significance of technical trading rule profits in the foreign exchange market a bootstrap approach abstract in this paper we present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market we utilize a new data base currency futures contracts for the period 1976 1990 and we implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap methodology our results suggest that simple technical trading rules have very often led to profits that are highly unusual splitting the entire sample period into three 5 year periods reveals that on average the profitability of some trading rules declined in the latest period although profits remained positive on average and significant in many cases jel f31 f47 g15

foreign exchange markets overview of the special issue introduction by way of abstract two decades ago exchange rate economics seemed to be in total shambles that however did not last long science proceeds by successive approximations and in the intervening years the foreign exchange market became one of the most heavily researched areas in economics the first wave of findings to come out of this new research concerned the centuries old theoretical construct of purchasing power parity and relatedly the behavior of real exchange rates here the consensus gradually shifted from the widespread view that ppp had collapsed to the view that it was in fact a useful empirical first empirical approximation in the long run as lothian and taylor 1996 put it in an introduction to the jimf conference issue on exchange rate modeling published in 1998 one of us wrote koedijk 1998 1 ten years of data and estimation techniques later the outlook is less bleak at least in the medium run a predictable relationship between exchange rates and economic fundamentals has re emerged and reintroduced tempered optimism in exchange rate economics

can china achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth in 2009 the chinese government announced its carbon intensity target for 2020 can china achieve this carbon intensity while sustaining economic growth to address this essential issue the contributions of this study lie in three aspects first we quantitatively capture the relationship between china s economic growth and energy consumption using the cointegration theory and predict china s energy consumption by 2020 according to different economic growth targets second we forecast china s energy structure in 2020 using compositional data and arima models under different scenarios third we deduce china s co2 emission and carbon intensity in 2020 furthermore we investigate whether or not china can realize the carbon intensity target in premise of ensuring economic growth and evaluate the contribution of the energy structure s adjustment to meeting this target finally we put forward some relevant policy implications for achieving china s carbon intensity target

empirical evidence on the currency carry trade 1900 2012 abstract most of the currency literature investigates the risk and return characteristics of the currency carry trade after the collapse of the bretton woods system in order to gauge the long term currency carry premium we extend the sample to 20 currencies over the period 1900 to 2012 we find modest sharpe ratios in the range of 0 2 0 4 for carry trading over this period this is markedly lower than the sharpe ratios above 0 6 reported for recent sample periods we document that carry trading occasionally incurs substantial losses which fits well with risk based explanations for deviations from uncovered interest parity we find that large carry trading losses do not necessarily coincide with large losses in global equity markets our results help to better understand the source and nature of excess returns on the carry trade

fiscal policy monetary targets and the price level in a centrally planned economy an application to the case of china this paper presents a planned economy monetary model of china a money supply equation links changes in broad money to government transactions evaluated at official prices the demand for real money balances by consumers equals the nominal demand for money deflated by an unobserved true price index the model explains money demand as the divergence between the then official and true price indices changes in the money supply are explained by government transactions while money demand is explained by real income and the anticipated true rate of inflation the true rate of inflation is 2 5 times the official rate copyright 1987 by ohio state university press

lessons from the evolution of foreign exchange trading strategies abstract the adaptive markets hypothesis posits that trading strategies evolve as traders adapt their behavior to changing circumstances this paper studies the evolution of trading strategies for a hypothetical trader who chooses portfolios from foreign exchange forex technical rules in major and emerging markets the carry trade and us equities the results show that a backtesting procedure to choose optimal portfolios improves upon the performance of nonadaptive rules we also find that forex trading alone dramatically outperforms the s p 500 with much larger sharpe ratios over the whole sample but there is little gain to coordinating forex and equity strategies which explains why practitioners consider these tools separately forex trading returns dip significantly in the 1990s but recover by the end of the decade and have been markedly superior to an equity position since 1998 overall trading rule returns still exist in forex markets with substantial stability in the types of rules though they have migrated to emerging markets to a considerable degree

bank discrimination holding bank ownership and economic consequences evidence from china abstract this paper finds that compared with chinese state owned firms non state owned firms have a greater propensity to hold significant ownership in commercial banks these results are consistent with the notion that because non state owned firms are more likely to suffer bank discrimination for political reasons they tend to address their financing disadvantages by building economic bonds with banks we also find that among non state owned firms those that hold significant bank ownership have lower interest expenses and are less likely to increase cash holdings but more likely to obtain short term loans when the government monetary policy is tight these results suggest that the firms building economic bonds with banks can enjoy benefits such as lower financial expenses and better lending terms during difficult times finally we find that non state owned firms with significant bank ownership have better operating performance overall we find that firms can reduce discrimination through holding bank ownership

chasing trends at the micro level the effect of technical trading on order book dynamics abstract technical traders attempt to exploit trends in market prices and the order flow despite this little is known about how these traders behave in a micro structure context we consider a model of an order book based financial market the market contains two groups informed traders and technical traders a numerical technique is used to identify a markov perfect equilibrium of the trading game and so determine the optimal strategies we find that technical trading rules are profitable and allow traders to increase their returns the effect of technical traders on the market however is ambiguous they decrease volatility and pricing errors but also increase trading costs despite primarily acting as liquidity suppliers

pervasive shortages under socialism we present a new theory of pervasive shortages under socialism based on the assumption that the planners are self interested because the planners meaning bureaucrats in the ministries and managers offirms cannot keep the official profits that firms earn it is in their interest to create shortages of output and to collect bribes from consumers the theory implies that 1 an increase in the official price of a good might reduce output 2 market socialism is bound to fail even without computational complexities facing the planners and 3 price liberalization will succeed only iffirms get to keep their profits

can implied volatility predict returns on the currency carry trade abstract currency carry strategies have long positions in currencies with a high interest rate and short positions in currencies with a low interest rate currency carry strategies have generated about 5 4 return per annum sharpe ratio 0 57 over the period december 1996 to may 2014 however during the recent financial crisis the carry strategy suffered losses of up to 20 on invested capital we investigate whether investors could have used the implied option volatility index on the us equity market the vix or the option implied volatility index from g7 currencies the vxy to time the currency carry trade we examine a large set of timing strategies and find that for some specific settings excess returns can be as large as 2 5 per annum however when we take into account that we investigated many trading strategies these excess returns turn out not to be statistically significant hence our findings cast doubt on implied volatility as a stand alone timing indicator for currency carry trading in real life portfolio decisions

the development of policy instruments in supporting low carbon governance in china abstract this paper examines the development of policy instruments that support the low carbon governance in china the instruments are analysed in five aspects in relation to the key policies in low carbon governance in china including energy conservation developing new energy reforestry developing circular economy and industry restructuring each aspect is discussed in three instrument groups which are 1 law and regulations 2 industry standard and 3 finance and taxation this research suggests that law enforcement for the new established laws should be further strengthened and stricter supervision systems should be in place to safeguard effective implementation of low carbon policies measures and standards especially for those energy condensed sectors more rigorous industry standards regarding energy efficiency should be considered to help eliminate outdated equipments in industries and promote the introduction of more climate friendly technologies the industrial standards should be given strong legal support in accountability in order to enforce their complete application once in operation new policies and instruments need to be introduced in order to reduce carbon print by landfill the backward law and industrial standards in china should be upgraded more regularly therefore to support the low carbon development strategy

modeling undesirable factors in efficiency evaluation abstract data envelopment analysis dea measures the relative efficiency of decision making units dmus with multiple performance factors which are grouped into outputs and inputs once the efficient frontier is determined inefficient dmus can improve their performance to reach the efficient frontier by either increasing their current output levels or decreasing their current input levels however both desirable good and undesirable bad factors may be present for example if inefficiency exists in production processes where final products are manufactured with a production of wastes and pollutants the outputs of wastes and pollutants are undesirable and should be reduced to improve the performance using the classification invariance property we show that the standard dea model can be used to improve the performance via increasing the desirable outputs and decreasing the undesirable outputs the method can also be applied to situations when some inputs need to be increased to improve the performance the linearity and convexity of dea are preserved through our proposal

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

beating the foreign exchange market filter rule profits found in foreign exchange markets in the early days of the current managed float persist in later periods as shown by statistical tests developed and implemented here the test is consistent with but independent of a wide variety of asset pricing models the profits found cannot be explained by risk if risk premia are constant over time inclusion of the home foreign interest rate differential in computing profits has little effect on the comparison of filter returns to those of buy and hold in the early years of the generalized managed floating that began in march 1973 filter rule profits in excess of buy and hold were found for many countries logue sweeney and willett 18 dooley and shafer 6 cornell and dietrich 5 it was unclear however whether such profits indicated inefficiencies first it was not clear that risk was adequately handled in such tests and often risk was ignored second there was no evidence such profits would be available postsample and third there was no statistical test of the significance of these profits this paper uses the logic of risk return tradeoffs to analyze the role of risk in such tests and illustrates the logic in a discussion using the sharpe lintner capital asset pricing model capm although a breeden consumption based capm a merton intertemporal capm or an arbitrage pricing model apm could easily be used the paper develops a test of statistical significance appropriate to foreign exchange markets section i analyzing the rate of return on foreign exchange speculation less the foreign domestic interest rate differential the test explicitly assumes that risk premia are constant over the sample the excess rates of return observable in using filters in going from a risk free dollar asset to a risk free deutsche mark dm asset persist into the 1980 s section ii and this is true even when taking account of transactions costs it turns out that these results for the dm case do not depend very much on the interestrate differential but primarily on exchange rate behavior this is useful to know because it is often quite difficult to find matching interest rate data of high quality for a sample of nine other currencies using only exchange rates section iii shows that the excess returns made in the first 610 days of the float persist in the next 1 220 days into the 1980 s dooley and shafer 7 find similar persistence in experiments that do not use buy and hold and have no significance tests when filter rule profits have been found in spot exchange markets it has often been argued that the profits are due to risk this paper uses the capm to analyze rates of return both to buy and hold and to filter strategies it turns out that the claremont mckenna college and claremont graduate school arthur d warga douglas joines and thomas d willett offered helpful comments and ning ning koo provided research assistance

determinants of china s energy imports an empirical analysis sustained economic growth in china has triggered a surge of energy imports especially oil imports this paper investigates the determinants of china s energy import demand by using cointegraiton and vecm techniques the findings suggest that in the long run growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect china s oil imports while domestic energy output has a substitution effect thus as the chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands china s oil imports are likely to increase though china s domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs it is anticipated that china will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price

combining mean reversion and momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets abstract the literature on equity markets documents the existence of mean reversion and momentum phenomena researchers in foreign exchange markets find that foreign exchange rates also display behaviors akin to momentum and mean reversion this paper implements a trading strategy combining mean reversion and momentum in foreign exchange markets the strategy was originally designed for equity markets but it also generates abnormal returns when applied to uncovered interest parity deviations for five countries i find that the pattern for the positions thus created in the foreign exchange markets is qualitatively similar to that found in the equity markets quantitatively this strategy performs better in foreign exchange markets than in equity markets also it outperforms traditional foreign exchange trading strategies such as carry trades and moving average rules

understanding the soft budget constraint we propose a clarification of the notion of a soft budget constraint a concept widely used in the analysis of socialist transitional and market economies our interpretation is broad enough to embrace most existing approaches to soft budget constraint phenomena and provides a classification of their causes and consequences in light of this interpretation we then review the theoretical literature on the subject and compare it with those on other dynamic commitment problems in economics

regional allocation of co2 emissions allowance over provinces in china by 2020 the mitigation efforts of china are increasingly important for meeting global climate target since the rapid economic growth of china has led to an increasing share in the world s total co2 emissions this paper sets out to explore the approach for realizing china s national mitigation targets submitted to the unfccc as part of the copenhagen accord that is to reduce the intensity of co2 emissions per unit of gdp by 40 45 by 2020 as well as reducing the energy intensity and increasing the share of non fossil fuel consumption through regional allocation of emission allowance over china s provinces since the realization of china s mitigation target essentially represents a total amount emission allowance allocation problem an improved zero sum gains data envelopment analysis optimization model which could deal with the constant total amount resources allocation is proposed in this study by utilizing this model and based on several scenarios of china s economic growth co2 emissions and energy consumption a new efficient emission allowance allocation scheme on provincial level for china by 2020 is proposed the allocation results indicate that different provinces have to shoulder different mitigation burdens in terms of emission intensity reduction energy intensity reduction and share of non fossil fuels increase

socialist economics the disequilibrium school and the shortage economy the economics literature about behavior and policy in the stylized socialist economy has passed through three main phases the first phase emanated essentially from the barone lange von mises debate before world war ii its main focus was on how a socialist economy could operate efficiently in the absence of markets and private property the second phase occurring mostly since world war ii has been concerned primarily with coming to grips with the organization institutions and planning process of economies that profess to have realized some form of the ideal socialist economy several writers have sought to generalize on the basis of these empirical features without really aiming at a rigorous formal theory of the various agents in a centrally planned economy the third phase has occurred since the mid 1970s when some began to work out propositions on and formalize models of micro and macroeconomic behavior in stylized centrally planned economies and sought to buttress their theoretical approach with macroeconometric measurements that have since been used as a platform for formulating policy recommendations there have been three main strands in this third type of inquiry ickes 1984

growing chinese coal use dramatic resource and environmental implications chinese coal consumption continues to rise as the country s economy and industry expand coal is particularly critical for china s fast growing power sector generating about 80 of electricity output notwithstanding the importance of coal and electricity many international forecasts today underestimate their rising use in china this paper acknowledges the current world financial crisis and assumes that chinese gdp growth to 2025 will not again approach double digit levels using the scenario analysis this paper demonstrates that even with conservative assumptions about chinese gdp growth and income elasticity of electric demand to 2025 the country will likely experience much higher coal demand and emit much greater volumes of carbon dioxide than forecast by various international energy agencies the paper also analyzes how china s domestic coal reserves may be threatened within two decades possibly affecting long term economic growth in china as well as world coal prices

emission allowances and mitigation costs of china and india resulting from different effort sharing approaches to meet ambitious global climate targets mitigation effort in china and india is necessary this paper presents an analysis of the scientific literature on how effort sharing approaches affect emission allowances and abatement costs of china and india we find that reductions for both china and india differ greatly in time across and within approaches and between concentration stabilisation targets for china allocated emission allowances in 2020 are substantially below baseline projections moreover they may be below 2005 emission levels particularly for low concentration targets below 490 ppm co2 eq effort sharing approaches based on allocating reduction targets lead to relatively lower reductions for china than approaches that are based on allocating emission allowances for 2050 emission allowances for china are 50 80 below 2005 levels for low concentration targets with minor differences between approaches still mitigation costs of china including emissions trading remain mostly below global average according to literature chinese emission allowances peak before 2025 2030 for low concentration targets india s emission allowances show high increases compared to 2005 levels if emission trading is allowed financial revenues from selling credits might compensate mitigation costs in most approaches even for low concentration targets india s emission allowances peak around 2030 2040 for all concentration targets c 2012 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

contradication in china s financial reforms the relationship between blanks and enterprises this paper investigates the effects of the reforms in china s financial sector on enterprise performance particular attention is paid to the effect of the increased role played by banks as a result of the major reorganization of the banking system which occurred in 1984 it is argued that although china s banks now possess considerable power to discriminate between enterprises in the allocation of credit in practice this power is seldom used and enterprises have not been subjected to significantly increased financial discipline as a result of the reforms the reasons for this are discussed and the prospects for further reform assessed copyright 1989 by oxford university press

review of key international demand elasticities for major industrializing economies abstract this paper conducts a selective review of various estimates for energy demand responses focused specially upon lower income industrializing economies rather than richer mature nations it emphasizes recent trends from empirical studies that have been published after 2000 emphasis is placed on the five major emerging or transitional economies in brazil china india mexico and russia although other important nations like chile and south korea are also discussed when studies are available the review focuses attention on the long run responses to changes in prices and income after capital stock turnover has been completed the terminology often refers to elasticities or the percentage change in energy use divided by the percentage change in price or income holding constant all other factors that could influence energy use decisions estimates cover petroleum products natural gas and electricity although the available studies often ignore coal they also include the economy wide impacts real gdp to price changes most studies have focused upon household and transportation use of liquid fuels many fewer studies have investigated fuels used by industry or commerce or for electric generation based upon the available estimates price and income elasticities for liquid fuels are generally less than one unity for many countries and sectors except for the long run income effect for transportation purposes which can range widely by country between 0 24 and 1 75 while averaging 0 94 for all countries

trading rule profits in european currency spot cross rates abstract the moving average ma trading rule is applied to six european spot cross rates jy bp dm bp jy dm sf dm sf bp and jy sf to see if opportunities for profitable trading exist the results suggest that ma trading rules are marginally profitable only for the jy dm and the jy sf cross rates while trading rules are not profitable for the other four cross rates bootstrapping and out of sample tests provide similar results examination of subsamples characterized by central bank intervention do not produce different results computation of box pierce statistics adjusted for heteroscedasticity show that daily returns for all six cross rates are serially uncorrelated overall the results suggests that cross rates are sufficiently transparent to eliminate ma trading rule profit

the failure of china s energy development strategy 2050 and its impact on carbon emissions china is the world s largest energy consumer and emitter of carbon china s energy development strategy is thus of great significance to the world s energy security and global carbon reduction target in this study the implementation of china s energy development strategy 2050 eds2050 which has been in operation since 1985 is investigated this study analyzes the causes of the failure of eds2050 and the impacts of that failure on carbon emissions the results show the following 1 eds2050 basically failed in 2010 and the strategic planning values of primary energy consumption and production were underestimated compared with the actual values by 39 and 67 respectively 2 comparing the predicted values of basic parameters in eds2050 with the actual values in the production field the main causes of failure were the underestimation of the economic growth rate and the proportion of non agricultural industries while in the living field the main causes were the underestimation of urbanization and per capita energy consumption in rural areas further analyses of various provinces demonstrated that the major factors leading to eds2050 failure include the economic growth rate urbanization population growth and the growth in car ownership 3 eds2050 failure resulted in an increase in carbon emissions in 2010 of 583 50 x 10 6 tc and increases of per capita carbon emissions reached 46 49 47 04 carbon emissions per unit of output demonstrated a reduction which was as a result of technological progress improving energy efficiency optimizing energy utilization and promoting national energy conservation should be highly emphasized in china s future sustainable energy development strategy c 2015 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

soft budget constraint and inflation cycles a positive model of the macro dynamics in china during transition abstract in this paper we develop a positive general equilibrium model consistent with china s institutional and political environment to explain the growth and inflation cycles during transition central to our explanation is the government s use of the monetary and financial system to support the state sector and the growing tension between a long running commitment to the sector and economic decentralization given this commitment we show how the cycles emerge as a product of the government s imperfect control over credit allocation under decentralization and the high costs of implementing administrative credit control

china s inflation 1979 1983 measurement and analysis one of china s economic achievements since the founding of the people s republic has been the maintenance of a relative price stability over a considerable period of time inflation however did emerge several times over the past 30 years after the rapidly rising prices of the late 1940s were brought under control in 1950 some inflationary pressures appeared in 1953 and then again in 1956 but in both cases these pressures were relatively mild and were quickly removed the serious production shortfalls and financial deficits that followed the great leap forward of 1958 59 caused price levels to rise rapidly in 1960 62 this time the inflationary pressures were stronger and lasted longer since 1979 inflation once again has become a major problem in the chinese economy in 1979 the chinese press began to report price increases and these increases apparently became substantial and widespread in 1980 although official reports indicated a slowdown in the growth of prices in 1981 83 inflation has continued to represent a latent threat to china s economic stability and growth 2 since the chinese economy is organized and operated under a socialist system with centralized allocation of major resources and state control over the prices of essential products the character and dimensions of inflation in china should be very different from those in a market economy an analysis of chinese inflation therefore not only may add to the existing knowledge about the operation of the nonmarket economy in china but also may shed light on the complexity of the economic reforms that are being undertaken a fundamental

unemployment fluctuations and the predictability of currency returns abstract we investigate whether unemployment fluctuations generate predictability in the cross section of currency excess returns we find that currencies with lower growth in the unemployment rate appreciate while currencies with higher growth in the unemployment rate depreciate as a result an investment strategy that involves investing in the former and short selling of the latter produces positive and sizable excess returns asset pricing tests show that the predictability is not driven by exposure to traditional risk factors such as global equity risk global foreign exchange volatility risk and downside risk but is related instead to an idiosyncratic unemployment risk

the economic value of fundamental and technical information in emerging currency markets abstract we measure the economic value of information derived from macroeconomic variables and from technical trading rules for emerging markets currency investments our analysis is based on a sample of 21 emerging markets with a floating exchange rate regime over the period 1997 2007 and explicitly accounts for trading restrictions on foreign capital movements by using non deliverable forward data we document that both types of information can be exploited to implement profitable trading strategies in line with evidence from surveys of foreign exchange professionals concerning the use of fundamental and technical analysis we find that combining the two types of information improves the risk adjusted performance of the investment strategies

local implementation for green manufacturing technology diffusion policy in china from the user firms perspectives abstract in recent years china has started to change its growth strategy to a more sustainable model in response to the limits to growth dilemma specifically the national policy advocates to promote the use of green manufacturing technologies through demonstration projects and to incentivize chinese manufacturers to adopt these green technologies that are also encouraged by local governments these green technologies can increase the economic gains of manufacturers by reducing costs on energy consumption and shift away from selling low margin products however the local authorities often encounter obstacles when implementing policies for promoting these technologies among manufacturing firms this paper explores the factors that affect the decision making of user firms throughout the policy implementation process based on the econometric analysis of the survey for china s electric motors upgrading project in guangdong province this study shows that three key factors are helpful in the local government s effort to implement the national project i e manufacturers awareness the understanding of the energy efficiency technology and the long term macroeconomic benefits in addition encouraging the participation of financial institutions is especially useful for local governments to convince small and medium sized firms these findings are beneficial for local implementation of green manufacturing technology diffusion policies in china and have worldwide policy implication as well

inflation or monetary overhang planners preferences in china two models based on utility maximization of economic planners are developed to explain the stock of households money holdings and rate of open inflation in china for the period 1954 85 planners preferences are found to be biased in favour of monetary overhang this bias was reinforced when the bargaining strength of planners vis a vis households was weakened and during the post mao reform period this could help to explain the increase in the value of rents and level of corruption during the reform period

credit and efficiency in centralized and decentralized economies we study a credit model where because of adverse selection unprofitable projects may nevertheless be financed indeed they may continue to be financed even when shown to be low quality if sunk costs have already been incurred we show that credit decentralization offers a way for creditors to commit not to refinance such projects thereby discouraging entrepreneurs from undertaking them initially thus decentralization provides financial discipline nevertheless we argue that it puts too high a premium on short term returns the model seems pertinent to two issues soft budget constraint problems in centralized economies and differences between anglo saxon and german japanese financing practices

scenario analysis of china s emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition china s growing demand for energy and its dependence on coal has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50 since 2000 within the debate about mitigating global climate change there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like china to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post 2012 international climate change policy framework for china this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth this paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how china might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget the results show how changes in the key sectors of the chinese economy could enable china to follow four different low carbon development pathways each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making infrastructure investments and social preferences having compared the key features of each scenario the paper concludes with some implications for chinese government policy

hardening the budget constraint the experience of the post socialist countries abstract the study surveys the typical manifestations of the softness of the budget constraint such as state subsidies soft taxation non performing loans the accumulation of trade arrears between firms and the build up of wage arrears in the various post socialist countries it was widely maintained at the outset of the post socialist transition that the holy trinity of liberalization privatization and stabilization would suffice to produce an efficient market economy since then it has become clear that hardening the budget constraint needs to be given equal priority with these unless this occurs the effects of privatization will fall short of expectations as they have in russia

analysis of the market penetration of clean coal technologies and its impacts in china s electricity sector abstract this paper discusses policy instruments for promoting the market penetration of clean coal technologies ccts into china s electricity sector and the evaluation of corresponding effects based on the reality that coal will remain the predominant fuel to generate electricity and conventional pulverized coal boiler power plants have serious impacts on environment degradation development of clean coal technologies could be one alternative to meet china s fast growing demand of electricity as well as protect the already fragile environment a multi period market equilibrium model is applied and an electricity model of china is established to forecast changes in the electricity system up to 2030s three policy instruments so 2 emission charge co 2 emission charge and implementing subsidies are considered in this research the results show that all instruments cause a significant shift in china s electricity structure promote ccts competitiveness and lead china to gain great benefit in both resource saving and environment improvement since resource security and environment degradation are becoming primary concerns in china policies that could help to gain generations market share of advanced coal based technologies such as ccts is suitable for the current situation of china s electricity sector

global political risk and currency momentum using a measure of political risk relative to the united states that captures unexpected political conditions we show that political risk is priced in the cross section of currency momentum and contains information beyond other risk factors our results are robust after controlling for transaction costs reversals and alternative limits to arbitrage the global political environment affects the profitability of the momentum strategy in the foreign exchange market investors following such strategies are compensated for the exposure to the global political risk of those currencies they hold that is the past winners and exploit the lower returns of loser portfolios the risk compensation is mainly justified by the different exposures of foreign currencies in the momentum portfolio to u s political shocks which is the main component of global political risk

oil development in china current status and future trends the future of oil has become an important topic of the discussion of energy policy in china this paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of china s oil development through system analysis first we map a sankey diagram of china s oil flow to reveal the physical pattern of china s oil supply and consumption then we present the historical and ongoing trends of china s oil flow from key aspects such as oil demand oil resource availability technology improvement and policy adjustment based on these understandings we design three scenarios of china s oil demand in 2030 and analyze policy implications for oil saving automotive energy development and energy security from the analysis we draw some conclusions for policy decisions such as to control the total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks to enhance oil saving in all sectors with road transportation as the emphasis and to increase the investment on oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions

international oil price uncertainty and corporate investment evidence from china s emerging and transition economy we develop and estimate a dynamic model of investment to investigate the impact of international oil price uncertainty on corporate investment expenditures in china s emerging and transition economy we further examine whether state ownership affects the relationship between oil price uncertainty and corporate investment consistent with the model s prediction the main finding is that oil price uncertainty exerts a negative impact on corporate investment expenditures in addition compared with state owned listed companies the negative influence of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment is more significant for non state owned listed companies our further analysis using the market oriented reform of refined oil pricing in 2008 as a quasi natural event shows the variation between the low degree marketization period and the high degree one in terms of the relationship between international oil price uncertainty state ownership and corporate investment expenditures

shocks effects of macroeconomic variables on natural gas consumption in nigeria structural var with sign restrictions abstract this paper has examined the transmission of shocks from macroeconomic variables namely money supply inflation exchange rate and real gdp onto natural gas consumption using structural var svar model with sign restrictions the results revealed that both in the short run and long run natural gas consumption responds significantly to the shocks emanating from money supply and real gdp while its response to inflation shock is significant only in the short run but exchange rate shock is not significant however money supply has contributed greater proportion of the shocks followed by the real gdp inflation and exchange rate in the ordering of the variance decomposition the paper recommends that nigerian authorities adjust the monetary policy tools towards regulating the money supply and checking the inflation rate to ensure increased demand for natural gas and sustained economic growth on the response of natural gas consumption to the shock in the exchange rate since the shock is positive though insignificant it implies that depreciation of the exchange rate can discourage the demand for foreign exchange imports and boost the local production which would reciprocally lead to more natural gas consumption and improved growth in the country

weak form efficiency in currency markets many past studies have found that currencies trend so technical trading rules produced statistically and economically significant profits in other words foreign exchange markets were weak form inefficient the study reported here reexamined this phenomenon with use of a new database of currency futures for 1975 2006 that includes old and newly liquid currencies the findings from the recent data are contradictory the profitability of trend following eroded for major currencies and their associated cross exchange rates around the mid 1990s newly liquid currencies after 2000 do trend however just as major currencies did in earlier years the evidence is consistent with early weak form inefficiency followed by vanishing trends as traders learn and adapt their strategies

optimal strategies for carbon reduction at dual levels in china based on a hybrid nonlinear grey prediction and quota allocation model abstract in this research a hybrid nonlinear grey prediction and quota allocation model hngp qam wasdeveloped for supporting optimal planning of china s carbon intensity reduction at both departmentaland provincial levels in 2020 at such dual levels hngp qam can not only help forecast carbon intensityand its uctuations over the concerned period but also facilitate the identi cation of china s carbonintensity reduction target in 2020 and the corresponding quotas for minimizing the total abatement cost two scenarios were developed based on multiple governmental policies and allocation schemes amongprovinces and departments the results showed that the total abatement cost would be 92 07 and98 93 10 9 as well as 180 57 and 194 19 10 9 rmb it is another shortname for china yuan for pro vincial and departmental allocation schemes under the reduction ratios of 40 and 45 respectively furthermore the west the east and the central china would be allocated the emission assignments thatwould be accounting for 48 53 28 26 and 23 21 of the total national emission reduction respectively the obtained results were particularly useful for multi level governments in providing information toidentify the carbon intensity reduction target conducting emission reduction assignments amongprovinces and departments as well as supporting relevant policy making the results also suggested thatthe developed hngp qam be applicable to similar engineering and planning problems 2014 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

the adaptive markets hypothesis evidence from the foreign exchange market we analyze the intertemporal stability of excess returns to technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market by conducting true out of sample tests on previously studied rules the excess returns of the 1970s and 1980s were genuine and not just the result of data mining but these profit opportunities had disappeared by the early 1990s for filter and moving average rules returns to less studied rules also have declined but have probably not completely disappeared high volatility prevents precise estimation of mean returns these regularities are consistent with the adaptive markets hypothesis lo 2004 but not with the efficient markets hypothesis

the economic consequences of mrs thatcher it is difficult to overstate the gravity of what is now happening to the uk economy output is falling at an almost unprecedented rate unemployment is at a level not experienced since the inter war depression and is increasing rapidly towards 3 million or 13 of the labour force which would mean rates of 20 and above in large areas of the country nor is there any foreseeable prospect of unemployment coming down instead all the signs point to a continuing increase the social and political consequences of this are hard to predict it is not just a matter of the financial hardship suffered by those thrown out of work through no fault of their own or of the strain imposed on the social welfare system but also of the mental stress disillusionment and sense of helpless ness which come with not being able to find a job this could well have a damaging long term effect on attitudes towards work particularly among young people con demned to go straight from school on to the unemployment register and is almost bound to lead to widespread social unrest the cause of sudden high unemployment in the uk is a backlash against the consensus post war economic policies of demand management to maintain near full employment of support for industry and of income maintenance and the provision of social welfare services policies which were developed in response to the experience of the inter war years the thatcher government has embraced a doctrinaire monetarist strategy for controlling inflation and a laissez faire approach to the supply side of the economy without attempting to moderate the social impact of these policies the extreme nature of this experiment has attracted a good deal of interest from abroad especially from the usa where the new president has expressed admiration for mrs thatcher and what her government is doing if only because there is a danger of governments in other countries following the uk s lead particularly as both the imf and oecd have recently urged the pursuit of similar policies it is important to draw international attention to what is now happening in the uk 18 months after mrs thatcher took office in sharp contrast to the rhetoric of government promises the economy has been set on a path of rapidly falling output and escalating unemployment leading towards the destruction of large parts of manufacturing industry at the same time the social advances which have been made during the post war period are beginning to be reversed as the government desperately seeks ways of offsetting the increase in its budget deficit caused by deepening recession

is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable a genetic programming approach using genetic programming techniques to find technical trading rules we find strong evidence of economically significant out of sample excess returns to those rules for each of six exchange rates over the period 1981 1995 further when the dollar deutsche mark rules are allowed to determine trades in the other markets there is significant improvement in performance in all cases except for the deutsche mark yen betas calculated for the returns according to various benchmark portfolios provide no evidence that the returns to these rules are compensation for bearing systematic risk bootstrapping results on the dollar deutsche mark indicate that the trading rules detect patterns in the data that are not captured by standard statistical models

retesting the causality between energy consumption and gdp in china evidence from sectoral and regional analyses using dynamic panel data abstract the increasing attention on energy policy needs has provided a renewed stimulus to research the linkages between energy consumption and economic performance in china this paper examined the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the regional and sectoral aspects by adopting provincial panel data in china from 1995 to 2008 the results indicate that economic growth causes more energy consumption in china not only at the national level but also at the regional and sectoral levels then the eastern region and the industrial sector show results quite similar to that of the whole country in which a bidirectional causality relationship exists between energy consumption and economic growth the implication for energy policies in china is that the eastern region and the industrial sector should play a leading role in the adjustment of energy consumption patterns and the transformation of the economy structure energy prices have limited effects on energy consumption but do have effects on economic growth because the energy price mechanism is more government oriented than market oriented in china

institutional investment mergers and the market for corporate control the increasing importance of institutional investors as shareholders in individual companies has led to an important debate on their impact on corporate performance in this paper we focus on their role in the market for corporate control this has so far been the subject of very little systematic investigation despite its theoretical and practical significance we consider the impact of financial institutions using two u k merger samples and employing both univariate and multivariate techniques of analysis in the first sample drawn from the low merger period 1981 1983 pre and post merger differences are found between merging companies with and without a significant institutional presence however in the takeover boom year of 1986 from which the second sample is drawn all such distinctions become blurred

savings commodity market rationing and the real rate of interest in china abstract the theoretical nature of risk premiums in foreign currency futures markets is derived and studied empirically estimation problems encountered in using futures data are discussed since forward rates and futures prices have been found to be approximately equal and because risk in daily risk premiums in the futures market unbiasedness of daily futures prices as predictors of the following day s futures price is rejected for all currencies reconciliation of daily and monthyl data requires positive serial correlation in daily risk premiums

the returns to currency speculation in emerging markets the carry trade strategy involves selling forward currencies that are at a forward premium and buying forward currencies that are at a forward discount we compare the payoffs to the carry trade applied to two different portfolios the first portfolio consists exclusively of developed country currencies the second portfolio includes the currencies of both developed countries and emerging markets our main empirical findings are as follows first including emerging market currencies in our portfolio substantially increases the sharpe ratio associated with the carry trade second bid ask spreads are two to four times larger in emerging markets than in developed countries third and most dramatically the payoffs to the carry trade for both portfolios are uncorrelated with returns to the u s stock market this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

a nonparametric analysis of energy environmental kuznets curve in chinese provinces energy resources are an important material foundation for the survival and development of human society and the relationship between energy and economy is interactive and complementary this paper analyzes the energy consumption economic growth nexus in chinese provinces using novel and recent nonparametric time series as well as panel data empirical approaches the dataset covers 30 provinces over the period of 1980 2018 the empirical analysis indicates the presence of a nonlinear functional form and smooth structural changes in most of the provinces the nonparametric empirical analysis validates the presence of a nonlinear unit root problem in energy consumption and economic growth and nonlinear cointegration between the variables additionally the nonparametric panel cointegration test reports evidence of convergence in energy consumption and economic growth patterns across the provinces the nonparametric regression analysis finds economic growth to have a positive effect on average on energy consumption in all provinces except for beijing further the energy environmental kuznets curve exists between economic growth and energy consumption in 20 out of 30 chinese provinces the granger causality analysis reveals the presence of a mixed causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption the empirical findings have important implications for chinese authorities in planning for improving energy efficiency decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption and reducing the environmental footprint of provinces

effective demand enterprise reforms and public finance in china economic reform in china athar hussain and nicholas stern this paper examines some problems of transition from a command to a market economy through an analysis of the most important example to date the reforms in the chinese economy since the late 1970s our focus is on the links between enterprise reforms effective demand and public finance the reforms have created a curious and problematic hybrid of market and command economies with serious problems of coordination they have concentrated almost exclusively on the delegation of decision making to enterprises from the higher to lower tiers of the government without taking into account its implications for investment consumption and public finance an understanding of future policy and lessons for other countries requires a careful examination of the effects of these past policies granting discretion to enterprises over investment and wages has resulted in both an investment and consumption boom but paradoxically a fall in profits there are strong reasons to suppose that the investment ratio has been too high in recent years fuelling inflation and slowing additions to supply by prolonging the gestation period of investment there has been a large increase in liquid assets in the hands of households which makes their expectations increasingly important for macroeconomic policy there is need for concerted financial innovation to diversify household wealth away from liquid assets finally the changes in the composition of government revenue and expenditure are disturbing there is an urgent need for a flexible and broad based tax system and for reducing price subsidies and subsidies to loss making enterprises

energy consumption and economic growth in central america evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model abstract this study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for six central american countries over the period 1980 2004 within a multivariate framework given the relatively short span of the time series data a panel cointegration and error correction model is employed to infer the causal relationship based on the heterogeneous panel cointegration test by pedroni pedroni p 1999 critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 61 653 670 pedroni p 2004 panel cointegration asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the ppp hypothesis new results econometric theory 20 597 627 cointegration is present between real gdp energy consumption the labor force and real gross fixed capital formation with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the granger causality results indicate the presence of both short run and long run causality from energy consumption to economic growth which supports the growth hypothesis