interpreting economic time series this paper explores some of the implications for econometric practice of the principle that people s observed behavior will change when their constraints change in dynamic contexts a proper definition of people s constraints includes among them laws of motion that describe the evolution of the taxes they must pay and the prices of the goods that they buy and sell changes in agents perceptions of these laws of motion or constraints will in general produce changes in the schedules that describe the choices they make as a function of the information that they possess until very recently received dynamic econometric practice ignored this principle the practice of dynamic econometrics should be changed so that it is consistent with the principle that people s rules of choice are influenced by their constraints this is a substantial undertaking and involves major adjustments in the ways that we formulate estimate and simulate econometric models

partnerships lemons and efficient trade we analyze the possibility of efficient trade with informationally interdependent valuations and with a dispersed ownership a crucial role is played by the sign of the derivatives that measure how valuation functions depend on others signals if valuations are increasing functions of other agents signals it is more difficult to achieve efficient trade with interdependent values than with private values where the respective derivatives are zero in contrast if valuations are decreasing functions of other agents signals it is easier to achieve efficient trade with interdependent values our results unify and generalize the insights of cramton et al 1987 myerson and satterthwaite 1983 and akerlof 1970

efficient mechanisms for bilateral trading we consider bargaining problems between one buyer and one seller for a single object the seller s valuation and the buyer s valuation for the object are assumed to be independent random variables and each individual s valuation is unknown to the other we characterize the set of allocation mechanisms that are bayesian incentive compatible and individually rational and show the general impossibility of ex post efficient mechanisms without outside subsidies for a wide class of problems we show how to compute mechanisms that maximize expected total gains from trade and mechanisms that can maximize a broker s expected profit journal of economic literature classification number 026

optimal price and inventory adjustment in an open economy model of the business cycle this paper presents a macroeconomic model containing optimizing inventory holding firms that is consistent with a number of prominent empirical regularities concerning fluctuations in output exchange rates relative prices and money prices are sticky but they are not predetermined still our model is consistent with exchange rate overshooting in the sense of dornbusch typical sticky price models allow a divergence between current production and current demand but this divergence is never allowed to feed back into the model our optimal inventory adjustments reconcile divergences between current demand and production and the inventory stock movements provide expected future dynamics

adaptive versus rational expectations and the fisher effect substantial controversy remains over the causes of interest rate fluctuations this controversy frequently focuses on the role of expected inflation the theoretical determinats of the nominal rate are examined usig the is lm as model and it is shown that the augmented fisher equation is sensitive to the expectations generating mechanism the model assumes that the nominal rate ceteris paribuschanges one for one with expected inflation the total impact however may take any value from zero to one the empirical analysis sequentially estimates reduced form equations based on adaptive and rational expectations the results confirm prior findings that nominal rates do not adjust one for one with inflation the results also yield some insight on the applicability of the assumption of rational versus adaptive expectations

the inflation tax in a real business cycle model money is incorporated into a real business cycle model using a cash in advance constraint the model economy is used to analyze whether the business cycle is different in high inflation and low inflation economies and to analyze the impact of variability in the growth rate of money in addition the welfare cost of the inflation tax is measured and the steady state properties of high and low inflation economies are compared

property rights and efficiency of voluntary bargaining under asymmetric information we show that in public good problems under asymmetric information the success of voluntary bargaining is closely related to the structure of property rights we characterize property rights structures and mediated bargaining procedures that either lead to an efficient voluntary resolution to public good problems or achieve the efficient outcome but slightly coerce the agents into participation in this respect we identify efficient property rights structures in this paper we show that in public good problems under asymmetric information the success of any voluntary bargaining procedure is closely related to the structure of property rights in the economy for clarity of exposition we focus our attention on the following example in a town inhabited by n residents a firm is considering whether to operate a factory that generates pollution as an inevitable by product a higher level of production generates a correspondingly higher level of pollution the firm s profits are increasing with the level of production and the welfare of the residents is decreasing with the level of pollution the firm s profitability and residents preferences are assumed to be private information the structure of property rights specifies the level of pollution that the firm is entitled to emit into the environment for every such economy we describe and prove the existence of efficient property rights structures we characterize property rights structures and voluntary mediated bargaining procedures that maximize the sum of residents utilities and the firm s profit and thus lead to an efficient resolution to the public good problem furthermore we show that these efficient property rights structures are robust to changes in the underlying environment this suggests that the combination of efficiency minded legislation that would set the initial structure of property rights appropriately and a mediator who would base his recommendations on an efficient decision mechanism could facilitate the achievement of the efficient outcome under some circumstances however we show that the mediated voluntary bargaining procedure has to be replaced by compulsory arbitration that coerces agents into agreement we provide results that show that when the efficient property rights structure is adopted the degree of coercion that is necessary to obtain the efficient outcome is small thus in contrast to rob 1989 and mailath and postlewaite 1 our results apply to any public good problem where the costs and benefits of providing the public good are monotonically increasing in the level of provision and where some additional restrictions to be specified later are imposed on the form of the utility and profit functions and on the information structure

simple contracts renegotiation under asymmetric information and the hold up problem abstract in this article it is demonstrated that voluntary bargaining over a collective decision under asymmetric information may well lead to ex post efficiency if the default decision is non trivial it is argued that the default decision may be interpreted as a simple contract that the parties have written ex ante this result is used in order to show that simple unconditional contracts which are renegotiated may allow the hold up problem to be solved even if the parties valuations are private information

inventories rational expectations and the business cycle abstract the simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational preclude the existence of business cycles that is of serially correlated deviations of output from trend this paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these so called new classical models produce business cycles the mechanism is the gradual adjustment of inventory stocks two macroeconomic models of inventory holdings are formulated both imply first that current output should be a decreasing function of the stock of inventories and second that inventories once perturbed from equilibrium levels should adjust only gradually these two features are then embedded into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational two principal conclusions are reached first disturbances such as unanticipated changes in money will set in motion serially correlated deviations of output from trend second if desired inventories are sensitive to the real interest rate then even fully anticipated changes in money can affect real variables

markups aggregation and inventory adjustment in this paper i suggest a unified explanation for two puzzles in the inventory literature first estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in aggregate data are very small relative to the apparent rapid reaction of stocks to unanticipated variations in sales second estimates of inventory speeds of adjustment in firm level data are significantly higher than in aggregate data the paper develops a multisector model where inventories are held to avoid stockouts and price markups vary along the business cycle the omission of countercyclical markup variations from inventory targets introduces a downward bias in estimates of adjustment speeds obtained from partial adjustment models when the cyclicality of markups differs across sectors this downward bias is shown to be more severe with aggregate rather than firm level data similar results apply not only to inventories but also to labor and prices montercarlo simulations of a calibrated version of the model suggest that these biases are quantitatively significant

inventories cycle in an augmented rbc model abstract we propose an augmented version of the rbc model that can take into account the existence of lags in observation of demand shocks this hypothesis seems to be a good framework to account for inventories fluctuations we find some evidence showing the introduction of lag in observation as well as the existence of monetary shocks improve the ability of the model in matching the observed fluctuations

money and economic activity inventories and business cycles abstract incomplete information is a necessary condition for any real effects produced by monetary impulses an alternative to the local global inference problem is explored in this paper agents are confronted with permanent and transitory shocks even with full knowledge about the stochastic structure their best perception at any particular time will usually be erroneous prices for each period are set at the beginning of the period on the basis of market conditions the realization of the shock process thus creates a short run disequilibrium absorbed by inventory adjustments this adjustment translates perceived transitory monetary shocks into serially correlated output movements the analysis proceeds within the context of rational expectations it offers a generalization of equilibrium analysis in two respects prices are always in equilibrium relative to perceived conditions but they do not reflect all ongoing shocks quantity adjustments reflect the perceived transitory shocks the framework used involves moreover a stock flow interaction operated by inventory adjustments the stock flow interaction imposes at any time a future expected adjustment path for price level and quantities to the system s unique stock equilibrium a major implication of the analysis resolves a puzzle experienced in a recent paper by robert hall it reconciles intertemporal substitution with lagged effects of monetary impulses it also reconciles small and inconclusive cyclic movements in real wages with the occurrence of production function and large variations in unemployment lastly the nature of the inference problem determined by the pattern of incomplete information produces serially correlated movements conditioned on large permanent shocks

imperfect price discrimination and welfare we develop a model in which a monopolist uses differences across consumers in their valuation of time to imperfectly price discriminate though it is customary to analyse price discrimination problems by the calculus of variations after postulating a continuum of types we assume a finite number of types and exploit the geometry and duality of the contract set and the structure of the programming specification we analyse in detail the qualitative properties of the model s solution and show by construction that our results exhaust the implications of the model for equilibrium contract pairs we show that imperfect discrimination is not bounded in welfare terms between perfect discrimination and single price monopoly and that the deadweight loss consumer surplus and output comparisons between single price monopoly and imperfect discrimination are ambiguous

inventory and price behaviour the point of this paper is that inventory adjustment attenuates downward pressure on price when realized demand is low because firms accumulate inventory hold overs speculating that demand will be stronger in the succeeding period when realized demand is high the firm draws down its inventories until a stock out occurs and price rises to clear the market

taking stock a critical assessment of recent research on inventories empirical and theoretical aspects of inventory behavior became hot topics in the 1950s and early 1960s no one seemed to notice the tension that was developing between the emerging macroeconomic and microeconomic views of inventories macroeconomists routinely thought of inventories as a destabilizing factor yet the prevailing micro theory viewed inventories as a stabilizing factor it was a fascinating question that was barely explored instead somewhat inexplicably interest in inventories dried up as if inventories were of minor economic significance and little intrinsic interest by the early 1980s then economists once again knew something they had known in the 1950s that inventory investment is of first order importance in business cycles but they were also beginning to realize that the standard production smoothing buffer stock model of inventories was in deep trouble this paper focuses on developments since that realization

production sales and the change in inventories an identity that doesn t add up we examine two measures of monthly manufacturing production the first is the index of industrial production the second is constructed from the accounting identity that output equals sales plus the change in inventories we show that the means variances and serial correlation coefficients of the log growth rates differ substantially between the two series and the cross correlations are in most cases less than 0 4 a model of classical measurement error indicates that in 15 of 20 two digit industries measurement error accounts for over 35 of the variation in the monthly growth rates of seasonally adjusted industrial production

relative price dispersion and economic shocks an inventory adjustment approach the issue of relative price dispersion rpd has gained prominence in recent years as the economy was subject to economic shocks and to high and variable levels of inflation the concern about the increased rpd was due to its potentially harmful effect on the economy recently blejer and leiderman 4 evaluated empirically the effect of rpd on economic activity in the postwar united states and found that increased rpd leads to a decrease in the level of output and to an increase in the rate of unemployment israelsen and mcdonald 13 showed in a partial equilibrium context that when wage changes are firmly linked to the general price level and labor mobility between markets or industries is limited an increase in rpd may lead to increasing unemployment pischer 10 suggested that rpd is not necessarily harmful but when coupled with unexpected inflation it may be associated with information confusion leading to a loss through the misallocation of resources these concerns have raised the interest in understanding the factors causing and affecting rpd both theoretically and empirlcally the prevailing theoretical explanations of the factors affecting rpd are based on two main approaches c ne approach is based on misinformation type models inspired by lucas s work 14 where individuals are confused between aggregate shocks and relative marketspecific ones barro 3 and cukierman and wachtel 9 have proposed that the greater the vanance of the aggregate shocks the greater the rpd barro 3 pp

backward and forward solutions for economies with rational expectations in models where anticipations of future endogenous variables influence current behavior there exists an infinity of solutions under the assumption of rational expectations this problem has been dealt with in the study of macro economic models by the implicit or explicit use of one of three additional requirements optimality consistency with alleged economic behavior or conformity of the endogenous variables to an imposed stationarity condition these requirements have coincided in existing models leading to the choice of a unique solution a forward solution the purpose of this paper is to review the problem characterize the solutions and examine whether these requirements are acceptable section i presents a simple model and derives the set of solutions the model makes no claim to generality but has the major advantage that the issues are easily understood in this simple case section ii discusses the requirement of consistency with economic behavior section iii discusses the requirement of stationarity and section iv provides some conclusions

mechanism design by an informed principal private values with transferable utility we provide a solution to the informed principal problem in the independent private values setting with monetary transfers the principal s private information creates signaling considerations that may distort the implemented allocation we show that there is no distortion all principal types implement an allocation that is optimal for the principal ex ante before he she learns his her type as an application we consider settings with linear utility for bilateral exchange in which the principal is one of the traders the solution is a combination of a participation fee a buy out option for the principal and a resale stage with posted prices

collusion exclusion and inclusion in random order bargaining this paper examines the profitability of three types of integration in a cooperative game solved by a random order value e g the shapley value collusion between players i and j is a contract merging their resources in the hands of one of them say i this contract can be represented as a combination of exclusion which lets i exclude j s resource but not use it himself and inclusion which lets i use j s resource but not exclude j from it this representation yields a third difference condition on the characteristic function that determines the profitability of collusion generalizing existing results for specific games namely collusion is profitable unprofitable when the complementarity of the colluding players is reduced increased by other players

markets for ownership the prevailing economic theory of the firm based on a property rights perspective has demonstrated that ownership by dispensable outside parties is an inefficient outcome relative to ownership by productive agents in order to better understand observed patterns of ownership this paper considers the outcome of ma rkets for ownership that operate prior to production taking place the main result is that outside parties will often become the equilibrium asset owners this is precisely because but for ownership such parties would not earn rents in contrast productive agents earn rents even when they do not own assets given that their contribution is complementary with other productive agents their willingness to pay for ownership is less than that of an outside party this result is robust to the introduction of moderate levels of inefficiency arising from outside ownership and to a consideration of opportunities for re sale before production begins the main conclusion drawn is that the nature of the operation of markets for ownership stands alongside incentive effects as important predictors of firm boundaries journal of economic literature classification numbers d23 l22

a theory of ambiguity credibility and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information this paper develops a positive theory of credibility ambiguity and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information the monetary policymaker maximizes his own politically motivated objective function that is positively related to economic stimulation through monetary surprises and negatively related to monetary growth the relative importance he assigns to each target shifts stochastically through time his current preference trade off is known to him but not to the public when choosing the state contingent path of money growth for the present and the future the policymaker compares the benefits from current stimulation with the costs associated with higher future inflation expectations current monetary growth conveys information to the public about future money growth because there is persistence in the policymaker s objectives although expectations are rational information is imperfect because monetary control procedures are imprecise as a result the public cannot correctly distinguish persistent changes of emphasis on different policy objectives from transitory monetary control errors the public becomes aware of changes gradually by observing past monetary growth credibility is defined in terms of the speed with which the public recognizes changes in the objectives of the policymaker credibility is lower the noisier monetary control and the more stable the objectives of the policymaker looser monetary control and a higher degree of time preference on the part of the policymaker induce him to produce higher and more variable monetary growth when the policymaker is free to determine the accuracy of monetary control he does not always choose the most effective control available in spite of the fact that monetary surprises always have an expected value of zero the reason is that ambiguous control procedures enable the policymaker to generate positive surprises when he cares more than on average about economic stimulation he leaves the inevitable negative surprises for periods in which he cares more about inflation prevention this result provides an explanation for the fed s preference for ambiguity recently documented by goodfriend 1986 the policymaker is more likely to pick more ambiguous control procedures the more uncertain his objectives and the higher his time preference the paper also provides a theoretical underpinning for the well documented crosscountry positive correlation between the level and the variability of inflation

output effects of government purchases the theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases under plausible conditions the temporary case involves an output response that is positive less than one to one with the change in government purchases and larger than that generated by an equal sized but permanent shift in purchase the equilibrium real rate of return rise in the temporary case but changes little in the permanent one defense purchases are divided empirically into permanent and temporary components by considering the role of temporary wars no temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases the results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally supportive of the theory

from bottom of the barrel to cream of the crop sequential screening with positive selection in a number of interesting environments dynamic screening involves positive selection in contrast with coasian dynamics only the most motivated remain over time the paper provides conditions under which the principal s commitment optimum is time consistent and uses this result to derive testable predictions under permanent or transient shocks it also identifies environments in which time consistency does not hold despite positive selection and yet simple equilibrium characterizations can be obtained

property rights and the efficiency of bargaining we show that efficient bargaining is impossible for a wide class of economic settings and property rights these settings are characterized by i the existence of adverse efficient opt out types whose participation does not change the efficient allocation and who when they opt out are the worst type other agents can face and ii non existence of the marginal core and its multivaluedness with a positive probability we also examine the optimal allocation of property rights within a given class that satisfies i such as simple property rights liability rules and dual chooser rules we characterize property rights that minimize the expected subsidy required to implement efficiency with two agents simple property rights that are optimal in this way maximize the expected surplus at the status quo allocation but this no longer holds with more agents we also study second best budget balanced bargaining under a liability rule the optimal second best liability rule may differ from but is often close to the expectation of the victim s harm which would be optimal if there were no bargaining however liability rules that are close to a simple property right result in a lower expected surplus than the simple property right they are near

a rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment abstract a critical roadblock to modeling inventories of finished goods has been the claim that the production and inventory decisions of a perfectly competitive firm are determined independently of each other a basic goal of this study is to specify fundamental preferences of economic agents technologies constraints and market structures that are in a rough way capable of generating patterns of serial correlations and cross correlations between inventories and employment of factors of production that are consistent with those observed in the data the claim is made that the time series for inventories output and employment can in principle be interpreted as emerging from a well specified dynamic stochastic competitive equilibrium in which economic agents are assumed to form rational expectations about variables not included in their information sets inventories and employment will not be related in a direct way if and only if the price elasticity of demand for output is equal to infinity

reliability of policy announcements and the effects of monetary policy abstract monetary authorities regularly announce targets for monetary growth but the market may not completely trust these announcements because they may not always be truthful hence the market does not have perfect knowledge about future monetary policy and must form its expectations on the basis of information it can extract from the announcements and its observations of the actual money supply this paper asks how the macroeconomic effect of monetary policy might be altered by more reliable policy announcements in the setting of a medium sized open economy it is found that contrary to the full information case a reduction in monetary growth of 1 may lead on impact to a reduction in inflation of much less than 1 if the announcements are not very credible the output costs of lowering inflation are smaller both in the short run and the long run the more reliable the announcements however the plausibility of announcements does not affect the output loss for a given appreciation of the currency fluctuations in the exchange rate that are attributable to monetary disturbances beyond the policy makers control can nonetheless be dampened by making announcements that are more highly correlated with the truth

a continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy abstract this paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices we construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production using this model we find three main results first we find formulas for equilibrium forward futures discount bond commodity bond and commodity option prices second we show that a futures price is actually a forward price for the delivery of a random number of units of a good the random number is the return earned from continuous reinvestment in instantaneously riskless bonds until maturity of the futures contract third we find and interpret conditions under which normal backwardation or contango is found in forward or futures prices these conditions reflect the usefulness of forward and futures contracts as consumption hedges

asset ownership and contractibility of interaction in a property rights framework i study how organizational form and quantity contracts interact in generating investment incentives the model nests standard property rights and hold up models as special cases i admit general message dependent contracts but provide conditions under which noncontingent contracts are optimal first the article contributes to the foundation of the property rights theory i characterize under which circumstances its predictions are correct when trade is contractible second i study how the optimal use of the incentive instruments depends on the environment finally the model offers a new perspective on the classic fisher body case and produces implications that are empirically testable

price and output responsiveness to nominal changes under differential information abstract the paper considers how changes in nominal income are transmitted into price and output changes within a setting where the traditional assumption of instantaneous market clearing costless coordination is given up in favour of a more realistic setting where price decisions are made by numerous agents firms acting independently on their private decentralized information the responsiveness of firm specific prices is considered and it is shown how absolute or nominal price rigidity can be explained building this into a theory of the general price level it is proved that heterogenously perceived nominal changes affect the price level less than proportionally moreover it is shown how a phillips curve relation between inflation and output can be rationalized within the model finally the issue of relative price variability is considered and related to misallocation of economic resources under differential information

inventories in a dynamic macro model with flexible prices this paper presents a disequilibrium macro model with inventories rational expectations and flexible prices it is found that less than full employment equilibria are possible even highly likely in the intermediate term and that wage reductions will cause employment to drop increasing aggregate demand will raise employment only if it is done gradually on a technical level we have multiple switching lines disconnected regimes and a connected equilibrium set which borders on a switching iline and otherwise lies in a single region

appropriation and efficiency a revision of the first theorem of welfare economics the first theorem of welfare economics rests on the assumption that individuals have neither price making nor market making capacities we offer a revision in which individuals have such capacities the revision emphasizes two keys for market efficiency i the need to align private rewards with social contributions called full appropriation and ii the need for an assumption to counter the possibility of coordination failures in the choice of produced commodities called noncomplementarity we also emphasize that information about prices of unmarketed commodities involves decentralized knowledge available only to product innovators and that pecuniary extemalities are important potential sources of market failure jel d51 d60 d62

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

the cyclical behavior of strategic inventories this paper presents a model in which inventories are used by a duopoly to deter deviations from an implicitly collusive arrangement higher inventories allow firms to punish cheaters more strongly and can thus help to maintain collusion we show that when demand is high the incentive to deviate increases so that increases in inventories may be optimal for the duopoly this rationalizes the observed positive correlation between inventories and sales in our empirical section we show that as our model predicts this correlation is more important in concentrated industries we also provide several examples where inventories have been a factor in cartel behavior

labor productivity and the business cycle can r b c models be saved abstract standard r b c models do not enable one to reproduce the main labor market stylized facts employment is more variable than productivity and average productivity leads the cycle in order to mimic these features we consider a model with indivisible labor labor hoarding and adjustment costs the model is then simulated and compared to u s stylized facts we show that government expenditure shock and some specific labor adjustment costs are necessary to explain the lead of the average productivity over the business cycle

inventories as factors of production and economic fluctuations this paper presents a theory of inventory investment by stage of processing and uses it to examine the role of inventory investment in economic fluctuations the model in which inventories are treated as factors of production is estimated for four durable goods industries three conclusions emerge from the estimation first the estimates generally satisfy the theoretical restrictions second the elasticity of inventory demand with respect to output is high indicating an important accelerator effect finally the estimates suggest that shifts in the demand for inventories are an important source of economic fluctuations copyright 1989 by american economic association

trade inventories and s s the paper presents empirical tests of the s s model of inventory behavior using aggregate retail trade data estimation and testing are based on the probability distributions of inventories derived by caplin 1985 the excess volatility of retailers demand over their consumers demand and the forgetfulness of inventories under s s are emphasized test results indicate that the time series properties of deliveries and sales are consistent with s s and not a quadratic cost model finally when autoregressions of inventories are given an s s rather than a stock adjustment interpretation traditional empirical problems such as low speeds of adjustment are explained

the output inflation relationship abstract this paper shows how the optimal pricing and production policy of a multiperiod profit maximizing firm under demand and output disturbances leads in the aggregate to a positive relationship between production and price deviations from the expected level as depicted by the lucas type supply function the pricing and production decisions are made simultaneously by market agents who base their decisions on the same rational expectations before the disturbances are realized here although the planned production is not affected by the price deviations there is still a contemporaneous positive relationship between them where both production and prices reflect the firm s adjustment to unexpected levels of inventory we show that this positive relationship prevails even when the production decisions are made ex ante based only on expectations before the realization of the random shocks a closed form linear approximation for the supply function is derived which captures the effect of both systematic and unsystematic economic disturbances finally we present an empirical test which supports our assertion that our inventory adjustment mechanism contributes to the creation of the positive relationship between production and price deviations

a study of automobile inventory investment the volatile fluctuations in automobile inventory levels are explained well by the stock adjustment model estimated in this paper on monthly time series data in contrast to the findings of most previous inventory studies fluctuations in financial inventory carrying costs as measured by a service cost of capital are found to influence the target auto stocks in both a statistically significant and economically important manner also the speed of adjustment of automobile inventories to their target level is estimated to be relatively fast about thirty percent per month

perfect competition and the creativity of the market from the perspective of the walrasian general equilibrium model entrepreneurial and opportunistic behavior seems foreign can the model be refashioned so that it can accommodate such behavior many would say no but we argue the contrary indeed we present a reformulation of the model that serves as a gateway to rather than a detour from such contemporary issues as innovation and incentives the trick is to reexamine what perfect competition means starting with an historical summary of general equilibrium we sketch an image of the perfect competitor as an active market opportunist seeking out profit potentials wherever he can

thinking about the firm a review of daniel spulber s the theory of the firm in this review i describe how economists have moved beyond the firm as a black box to incorporate incentives internal organization and firm boundaries i then turn to the way that the theory of the firm is treated in daniel spulber s book the theory of the firm microeconomics with endogenous entrepreneurs firms markets and organizations spulber s goal is to explain why firms exist how they are established and what they contribute to the economy to accomplish this spulber defines a firm to be a transaction institution whose objectives differ from those of its owners for spulber this separation is the key difference between the firm and direct exchange between consumers i raise questions about whether this is a useful basis for a theory of the firm jel d21

international asset pricing with time varying risk premia abstract recent empirical evidence that forward exchange rates are biased predictors of future spot rates can also be interpreted as evidence against the hypothesis of a constant risk premium consequently reconciliation of this evidence with efficient international capital markets requires the existence of time varying risk premia this paper modifies kouri s 1977 asset pricing model to allow time varying exected returns on assets eliminates the assumption of a risk free real asset and derives the characteristics of the risk premia in the forward market as well as the equilibrium yield relationships among the equities and riskless nominal bonds of all countries

the impact of interest rates on price and supply the author considers the effect of an increase in the current and future interest rate on the stationary price and su pply policy of a stock holding firm and provides necessary and suffi cient conditions for either price or supply to be raised in response

monetary disturbances inventory fluctations and the level of sales a theoretical and empirical analysis there has in the past several years been a revival of interest in the topic of inventory fluctuation and its relationship to the short run dynamics of output one important reason for this interest can be traced to the pioneering work on aggregate supply begun by lucas 11 12 and extended among many others by barro 3 4 in their models the behavior of output is driven by intertemporal considerations it is a natural extension of such models if output is storable to consider the implication of producers whose current output can either be sold immediately or held in stock for future sales current sales by the same token may be either current production or goods from inventory in a recent paper blinder and fischet 6 develop such a model using it they demonstrate that inventory dynamics can be an explanation for an empirical weakness of simple versions of the lucas type models real world business cycles are characterized by considerable persistence simple equilibrium business cycle models do not exhibit such persistence or in some cases it is present only through the ad hoc presence of a lagged output term in the aggregate supply function except for the influence of inventories producers in the blinder fischer analysis behave as do producers in most new classical macro models they are price takers and quantity setters in a model where inventories exert an influence on output decisions such neoclassical behavior cannot be ascribed to perfectly competitive conditions if firms are perfect competitors output decisions will not reflect the state of current inventories

rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods abstract this paper formulates and estimates a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment of labor the view that the primary role of inventories of finished goods is to act as a buffer stock in the face of fluctuating demand is examined both the model and estimation results indicate that this is the case because of differences in the costs involved for firms in changing their inventory stocks and labor force in addition to providing some new evidence on the behavior of inventories of finished goods and employment the paper illustrates a technology for maximum likelihood estimation of structural parameters under the hypothesis of rational expectations

inventories and sticky prices note in a recent contribution to this review alan blinder provides an interesting analysis of the relationship between optimal inventory decisions and the process of price adjustment arguing that inventory permits separation of production and sale decisions and allows the firm greater flexibility in responding to anticipated demand disturbances blinder shows that the responsiveness of relative prices depends critically upon the cost of storage and the temporal structure of the demand shocks few economists would fault the intuitive substance of blinder s basic proposition and the proposition is justified with characteristic precision the analysis however is considerably less general than blinder maintains the formal argument of his paper relies upon a simple model of a monopolist capable of backlogging orders and storing unsold goods as the model is constructed order backlogs assume a role of fundamental importance in any stationary equilibrium this feature of the model vitiates blinder s extension of his result to situations in which order backlogs are prohibited the basic monopoly model developed in sections i and ii of blinder s paper places no restriction upon the sign of inventory negative inventory is interpreted as net unfilled orders while no distinction is drawn between reductions in gross inventory and additions to the order backlog as a result the cost of holding inventory is symmetric around an arbitrary minimum point the only role of inventory is to permit the time paths of production and sales to differ gross inventory allows production to antedate sales while order backlogs generate revenue before production costs are borne under these circumstances if future costs and revenues are discounted it is natural to expect any stationary equilibrium level of net inventory to be negative this can be shown to be true of blinder s model it is useful to distinguish in general between the nonstochastic stationary level of inventory n and the stochastic stationary level n the former is realized when the current expected demand disturbance eo is zero and production equals sales the latter which differs from customary usage represents the level of inventory expected to prevail when adjustment to the current nonzero expected demand disturbance is complete if the demand disturbance is not a random walk so that p 1 in blinder s 5 the two equilibria coincide relatively little attention is devoted to either stationary solution because blinder s main interest is in the optimal current solution level n1 the stochastic stationary level is crucially important however since it represents the goal toward which the current choice must provide an optimal first step to verify that both nand n are negative whenever production is strictly positive note that blinder s necessary condition 7 with the coefficient cl set equal to zero together with the definition of xa as the deviation of the shadow value of inventory q from its nonstochastic stationary value q implies

factor demand under conditions of product demand and supply uncertainty the paper develops a theory of factor demand under uncertainty that encompasses neo classical factor demand and keynesian effective factor demand as special cases the model allows factor demand and output to move positively with product demand even with a constant product price this in turn permits real wages to move pro cyclically in response to product demand shocks in addition the model provides a new perspective on the adding up problem which posits that total factor payments exceed output if increasing returns to scale exist and generates positive uncertainty profits that are similar in spirit to those of frank knight

partnership dissolution with interdependent values we study partnership dissolution when valuations are interdependent and only one party is informed in contrast with the case of private values cramton gibbons and klemperer 1987 in which efficient trade is feasible whenever initial shares are about equal there exists a wide class of situations in which full efficiency cannot be reached in these cases i the subsidy required to restore the first best is minimal when the entire ownership is allocated initially to one of the parties and ii ruling out external subsidies the second best welfare is maximized when one of the parties initially has full ownership

the sources of fluctuations in aggregate inventories and gnp a simple real linear quadratic inventory model is used to determine how cost and demand shocks interacted to cause fluctuations in aggregate inventories and gnp in the united states 1947 1986 cost shocks appear to be the predominant source of fluctuations in inventories and are largely though not exclusively responsible for the fact that gnp is more variable than final sales cost and demand shocks are of roughly equal importance for gnp these estimates however are imprecise with different but plausible values for a certain target inventory sales ratio cost shocks are less important than demand shocks for gnp fluctuations

inventories in a competitive environment trade is sequential buyers arrive in batches and each batch completes trade before the next arrives producers allocate the available supply among all potential batches of buyers inventories accumulate whenever a batch does not arrive shocks to cost and demand are serially independent there is a stationary relationship between inventories and prices with the following properties larger beginning of period inventories tend to depress prices inventories are positively serially correlated a unit increase in inventories reduces output by less than one unit an increase in inventories leads to an increase in the price spread output tends to vary more than sales

anticipatory pricing with negligible uncertainty abstract if firms precommit to output and price equates either expected excess demand or excess demand when demand takes its expected value to zero then equilibrium price and output typically do not converge to their walrasian levels as demand becomes decreasingly risky

pricing of permanent and transitory volatility for u s stock returns a composite garch model abstract this study presents a new garch model decomposing total volatility into a permanent and a transitory component it is examined whether there are any differences in pricing between these two volatility components

equilibrium adjustment with endogenous information and inventories the paper analyzes the interaction of information acquisition and inventory flexibility with industry adjustment to imperfectly perceived cost and demand disturbances improved information about disturbances reduces the extent to which disturbances are unperceived and dampens the use of inventories reduced inventory flexibility induces firms to devote more resources to acquiring information about disturbances the analysis demonstrates how equilibrium price and output adjustment depend endogenously on the degree of inventory flexibility and other structural parameters influencing the acquisition of information in this paper we analyze how endogenous information acquisition and inventory flexibility influence price and output adjustment in a competitive industry we focus on the potential substitutability of information acquisition for inventory flexibility when disturbances are imperfectly perceived by individual firms the analysis highlights the general issue of how market adjustment depends on structural parameters that influence agents incentives to acquire information there are several reasons why information acquisition may play a role in market adjustment first the rapid development of information technology has enabled firms to gather and process data relevant to production and sales decisions from a greater number of external and internal sources this trend has reduced the costs of forecasting and monitoring factors influencing production and demand conditions for the individual firm relative to those of its competitors as well as for the industry as a whole in particular it has permitted quicker awareness of changing customer demand as well as greater control of the flow of inputs and intermediate goods during the production process this implies that the resources devoted to information acquisition and processing have come to play an important role in firm decisions 2 second improved information about demand and cost conditions may affect the function of inventories inventory adjustment allows a firm s production costs to be smoothed in response to anticipated movements in demand and costs and to be buffered against unanticipated disturbances see ashley and orr 1985 thus

status quo bias in bargaining an extension of the myerson satterthwaite theorem with an application to the coase theorem we use a generalized version of the myerson satterthwaite theorem to study inefficiencies in bilateral bargaining over trade of an indivisible good where there is two sided private information on the valuations we show that when preferences are convex and quasi linear and when the private information represents the magnitude of the utility gain or loss and follows a uniform distribution that the most efficient mechanism always exhibits a bias towards the status quo in the case that utility functions are quadratic in the amount traded we prove that for any incentive compatible direct mechanism there is an expected bias towards the disagreement point in other words for the class of preferences we study there is a strategic advantage to property rights in the coase bargaining setup in the presence of incomplete information

specification tests of the lucas rapping model aggregate fluctuations in employment and unemployment are often explained within a market clearing framework as intertemporal substitution in labor supply under this hypothesis leisure in the current period is supposed to be highly substitutable with leisure and goods in other periods consequently labor supply responds to perceived temporary changes in the real wage although it may be inelastic with respect to permanent changes in the real wage a very important and influential empirical study of intertemporal substitution was presented by robert lucas and leonard rapping 1969 l r lucas and rapping estimated a simultaneous equations model of the aggregate labor market under an adaptive expectations forecasting scheme and found strong support for the intertemporal substitution hypothesis although the adaptive expectations assumption is now rarely used in such models the intertemporal substitution hypothesis has become quite prominent in equilibrium business cycle theories where it is used to explain how fluctuations in aggregate demand can result in real changes in output employment and unemployment besides the l r study relatively few attempts have been made to verify the intertemporal substitution hypothesis and most have failed to find the kind of intertemporal substitution elasticity estimated by lucas and rapping 2 in addition the l r results have never been tested although joseph altonji made some minor data corrections extended the time period and reproduced them 3 this paper helps to reconcile the l r results with later findings and also provides a convincing illustration of the importance and usefulness of specification testing here the l r estimates are reproduced and the model is subjected to the kind of overidentification tests now widely used in econometric analysis the restrictions on the model are easily rejected this standard specification testing leads to very different conclusions about the empirical importance of the intertemporal substitution hypothesis than those suggested by lucas and rapping

heterogeneity in price rigidity evidence from a case study using microlevel data we combine two data sets to study price rigidity the first consists of weekly time series of retail wholesale and spot prices for twelve products these time series contain two exogenous cost shocks we find that prices exhibit more rigidity in response to the second shock than the first the second data set consists of all publicly available information about the shocks content analysis of these information reveals that the first shock is larger and more persistent and the market has more information on it than the second we conclude therefore that prices are more flexible in response to cost shocks that are larger that are more persistent and on which market participants have more information

information and the coase theorem abstract some economists think the coase theorem implies a lot about the proper scope of government intervention in the economy and about the welfare consequences of laissez faire others see it as a mere tautology that if people negotiate efficiently then every outcome will be efficient the coase theorem is important only if we believe that efficient negotiation is likely of course we can attribute inefficiencies to bargaining imperfection but it may not be useful to do so such attitudes sometimes seem to depend more on ideology than on reason this article gives one economist s reasoned view it discusses the coase theorem as a decentralization result and why decentralization results are interesting it considers mechanism design for revealing private information and describes the problems of centralization should the coase theorem should be viewed as a second best result property rights are more efficient than some reasonable alternative does the coase theorem recommend an institution or make

target buffer stocks the behaviour of a buffer stock holding firm facing stationary demand shocks is considered from the viewpoint of recent evidence on inventories and price setting attention is focussed on the responses of price and supply to changes in autonomous demand and compared with those of a nondurable producer the results conflict with recent theoretical work in providing support for a keynesian interpretation of inventory series

size persistence and interrelation of nominal and real shocks some evidence from four countries abstract one of the major themes in karl brunner s work is the comparative size persistence and interaction of real and monetary impulses the paper uses a univariate multi state kalman filter to forecast quarterly values of money prices output velocity and exchange rates during the bretton woods and post bretton woods monetary regimes and to compute shocks or impulses vector autoregression is used to relate the shocks and to compare the two regimes several propositions are tested including the phillips curve currency substitution reverse causation and the role of monetary impulses as a cause of fluctuations in output and prices

on the theory of the firm underlying empirical models of aggregate price behavior recent empirical work on aggregate and industrial price behavior has been conducted within the framework of a static neo classical theory of price formation 2 the purpose of this paper is to propose a more general theoretical framework for analyzing price behavior the proposed framework is neo classical in its basic characteristics but unlike the recent literature it is based on a dynamic theory of firm behavior in which decisions on price inventories and the capital stock are integrated to serve as a basis for comparison with the model developed here it is useful to state briefly the main propositions of the static neo classical model the model presumes that the typical firm behaves as if it were a simple monopolist that faces competitive factor input markets and sets its price so as to maximize current profits assuming a log linear demand function and production function the model yields the result that the firm s long run optimal price policy in general is

asymmetric information bargaining problems with many agents a yes or no decision must be made about some issue all agents must agree the coase theorem asserts that the efficient outcome will always result suppose the value positive or negative that an individual attaches to an affirmative decision is privately known to that individual it is proved under very mild conditions that with independent types as the number of agents increases the probability of an affirmative efficient decision goes to zero an example in which it is common knowledge that an affirmative decision is efficient and yet the probability of such a decision goes to zero is given

legal efficiency and consistency abstract we analyze the efficiency and consistency of court decisions under common and civil law as a leading example we study the enforcement of property rights judges are of two types some are conservative and follow the precedent or the statute while others maximize social welfare when courts intervene ex post after the relevant economic choices have been made welfare maximizing courts face a commitment problem such an ex post bias has implications on the relative consistency and efficiency of each legal system surprisingly we find that court decisions are more consistent under common law than under civil law the welfare comparison between the two systems is instead ambiguous however in changing economic environments common law is more likely to dominate civil law because of its greater adaptability

imperfect price discrimination and variety in many environments a monopolist can price discriminate even though consumers can select any option offered by the firm though consumers seem indistinguishable to the firm the monopolist can discriminate by exploiting its knowledge of the joint distribution of agents characteristics in this paper locations and reservation prices to offer the most profitable menu of alternatives given the constraints imposed by the maximizing behavior of each type of consumer see chiang and spatt 1982 for a partial bibliography of this research in many of these models consumers agree typically on the definition of the best available good exceptions include adams and yellin 1976 and telser 1979 but disagree on their incremental valuation of quality the consumer s selection of a price quality contract from the set offered by the monopolist can elicit information that the monopolist endogenously exploits for example the price discriminating monopolist may charge a steeper price quality gradient than predicted by cost considerations see mussa and rosen 1978 in a spatial market the monopolist can discriminate on the basis of differences in cost of travel or location of consumers i analyze a model i analyze by geometric techniques a spatial model in which a monopolist uses location differences across consumers to price discriminate the model is used to examine price discrimination in a model of variety in a setting in which consumers disagree on the definition of quality the full burden of separation of types is not on binding self selection conditions examples are presented in the paper to show the ambiguous output and welfare comparisons between imperfect discrimination and singleprice monopoly at various extremes discrimination can either relative to single price monopoly make some consumers better off and none worse off while raising firm profit or alternatively reduce firm output the effect of an increase in the cost of travel on output variety and consumer surplus is demonstrated the implications of the model are also shown to be exhaustive under various assumptions about the set of observables x an earlier version of this paper was presented at the nber nsf conference on hierarchies monitoring and the nature of the firm at the university of minnesota minneapolis december 1980 1 gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments of the referee and support from national science foundation grant ses 8015086

the stylized facts about the behavior of manufacturers inventories and backorders over the business cycle 1959 1980 recent theoretical work has highlighted the role of inventories in propagating business cycles this paper attempts to provide an empirical foundation for current and future research on the role inventories play in business cycles the evidence presented here indicates that inventories and backorders are major variables in predicting output fluctuations further the evidence is that disaggregating inventories by stage of fabrication is important in predicting output in concert with previous findings our results suggest that disaggregated inventories ought to be a component of models of the business cycle

adoption externalities as public goods abstract a public good problem arises naturally in situations characterized by positive externalities or negative externalities for positive externalities agents furnish a public good by taking an action similarly for negative externalities agents furnish a public good by not taking an action we examine these externalities in a binary choice problem i e adoption externalities in each case there is a potential role for government intervention even when equilibrium transfers are not allowed since one equilibrium pareto dominates all others we analyze the positive and normative features of equilibria in these models and we explore the possibility of useful government intervention

karl brunner s monetary economics an appreciation karl brunner s contribution to the development of monetary economics during the last thirty years was of the first order of importance i am confident that this will be the verdict of future historians of the period s economic thought they will base it not just on his enviable record of solo publication and citation but on his quite extraordinary contnbutions as a collaborator often but by no means always as a coauthor an organizer of conferences and above all as an editor 1 it is quite impossible to conceive of how the discipline might have evolved without the two journals that karl founded the journal of money credit and banking and the journal of monetary economics or of what course policy debates might have taken not only in the united states but also in western europe without the carnegie rochester konstanz and interlaken meetings not to mention the shadow open market committee as well as numerous ad hoc conferences in which he was involved and anyone who contributed to his journals or participated

inventories and sticky prices more on the microfoundations of macroeconomics the role of inventories in making prices sticky is studied by analyzing a dynamic linear quadratic model of a monopoly firm facing stochastic demand but able to store its finished goods in inventory it is shown that in contrast to the usual presumption firms that exhibit the smallest output responses to demand fluctuations may also exhibit the smallest price fluctuations specifically firms which have very flexible inventory storage facilities or are subjected to very transitory demand shocks will rely on inventories as buffers and will change neither production nor price very much on the other hand firms which have very inflexible storage facilities or whose demand shocks are quite permanent will display large swings in both price and output the standard assumption about inventory carrying costs that has been used in the literature that they are linear is shown to imply that production is impervious to fluctuations in demand it is also established that prices may respond more strongly to positive demand shocks than to negative ones if it is impossible to hold negative inventories i e to have unfilled orders the model offers an explanation for stickiness in relative prices however under certain circumstances it may help explain the persistence of inflation this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

can the production smoothing model of inventory behavior be saved the production smoothing model of inventory behavior has a long and venerable history and theoretical foundations that seem very strong yet certain overwhelming facts seem not only to defy explanation within the production smoothing framework but actually to argue that the basic idea of production smoothing is all wrong most prominent among these is the fact that the variance of detrended production exceeds the variance of detrended sales this paper first documents the stylized facts then it derives the production smoothing model rigorously and explains how the model can be amended to make it consistent with the facts finally it reviews the theoretical and empirical evidence and tries to draw some tentative conclusions

the rate at which a simple market converges to efficiency as the number of traders increases an asymptotic result for optimal trading mechanisms private information in an independent private values market provides incentives to traders to manipulate equilibrium prices strategically this strategic behavior precludes ex post efficient market performance increasing the number of traders improves the efficiency of some trading mechanisms by enabling them to better utilize the private information traders bids and offers reveal this paper shows that the expected inefficiency of optimally designed mechanisms relative to ex post efficient allocations decreases almost quadratically as the number of traders increases

real business cycles and the lucas paradigm when the lucas paradigm is generalized to include real effects the effects of real factors and monetary factors on the business cycle are always interrelated furthermore in such models monetary factors can affect the long run behavior of real output contrary to the commonly held view that they cannot real business cycle models and lucas type models are different paradigms but not in the sense of real versus monetary rather interrelationships between real and monetary factors are intrinsic to the lucas paradigm whereas the real business cycle literature implies a dichotomy between real and monetary factors

the effect of power imbalances on incentives to make non contractible investments we use an experiment to study the effect of ex post sharing rules on relationship specific investments in an incomplete contracting context we find that no power structure can induce first best investments and that equally productive partners reach more efficient outcomes with a balanced power structure i e equal sharing of returns than with an asymmetric one in addition we find evidence for behavioural effects partners make higher investments and reach higher efficiency levels than own payoff maximisation would suggest this behaviour is in line with a model where decision makers care about social efficiency it is not consistent with inequity averse preferences

inventories rational expectations and economic activities abstract this paper examines the role of inventories when adjustments in output involve fixed employment costs such as hiring and training costs these costs force the firm to use inventories to stabilize output fluctuations contrary to the blinder fisher model unanticipated aggregate disturbances in the present model may have no subsequent impacts on the economy the exchange between mccallum and blinder frydman are also discussed in this context