the high scope perry preschool program cost benefit analysis using data from the age 40 followup this paper presents an updated cost benefit analysis of the high scope perry preschool program using data on individuals aged 40 children were randomly assigned to a treatment or control group program costs are compared against treatment impacts on educational resources earnings criminal activity and welfare receipt net present values are calculated for participants the general public and society the treatment group obtains significantly higher earnings for the general public higher tax revenues lower criminal justice system expenditures and lower welfare payments easily outweigh program costs they repay 12 90 for every 1 invested however program gains come mainly from reduced crime by males

sheepskin effects in the returns to education some previous discussions have dismissed screening theories of education partly on the ground that diploma years of education do not confer especially large earnings gains similarly most empirical research on earnings functions has assumed an absence of sheepskin effects we report evidence however of substantial and statistically significant sheepskin effects although this suggests that the previous dismissals of the screening hypothesis were premature our evidence of sheepskin effects is amenable to nonscreening interpretations also according to screening theories of education individuals with more schooling tend to earn more not because or at least not solely because schooling makes them more productive but rather because it credentiates them as more productive a frequently cited article by layard and psacharopoulos 1974 however dismissed the importance of the screening hypothesis on the grounds that several of its refutable predictions were not supported by available evidence one of these was the sheepskin prediction that wages will rise faster with extra years of education when the extra year also conveys a certificate after surveying a number of studies layard and psacharopoulous henceforth lp concluded that rates of return to dropouts are as high as to those who complete a course which refutes the sheepskin version of the screening hypothesis since publication of the lp paper an undergraduate labor economics textbook has cited lp s analysis of sheepskin effects as telling criticism of the screening hypothesis a prominent proponent of the screening hypothesis riley 1979 has accepted lp s summary of the empirical evidence but responded that some versions of the screening hypothesis do not imply sheepskin effects in the meantime the ongoing flood of empirical research on earnings functions typically has continued to treat the natural logarithm of the wage rate as a linear or occasionally quadratic function of years of education with no allowance for discontinuities in diploma years 2 the estimated rates of return used by lp were based on data that did not disaggregate dropouts earnings by how many years of school they had completed lp acknowledged we would have preferred to show the earnings gain associated with each year of the course including the year when it was successfully completed this note presents a reanalysis of sheepskin effects based on the type of data lp wished they had the results contain very strong evidence of sheepskin effects after all the next section describes our analysis and the following section summarizes and discusses our

bequest receipt and family size effects i introduction the seminal economic models of intergenerational human capital investment demonstrate the potential importance of credit market failure in determining child achievement becker and barro 1988 becker and lewis 1973 becker and tomes 1986 willis 1973 1 without the ability to borrow against future child earnings additional children raise the cost of providing a given level of child quality alternatively the greater the level of child quality the higher the cost of having an additional child 2 the resulting negative relationship between family size and child outcomes is termed a quality quantity trade off early empirical studies found large negative family size effects consistent with significant credit market failure kessler 1991 includes a brief survey of this literature however kessler points out that this early literature often ignored the possible effects of birth order because birth order is inherently correlated with family size this omitted variable might account for observed family size effects if first or early born children are advantaged due to preferential parental investments or innate advantages see behrman and taubman 1986 for a discussion of biological psychological and economic reasons for such birth order effects studies that include both family size and birth order controls report conflicting results 3 using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth kessler 1991 finds that neither birth order nor family size affect the level or growth rate of wages he does find a family size effect in the hours worked by women though the direction of the effect depends on age using a sample from norway black devereux and salvanes 2005 find significant family size effects with ordinary least squares even with birth order controls however when family size is instrumented with twinning the effect becomes statistically indistinguishable from zero though the standard errors are large and the results are also consistent with very large family size effects in britain grawe 2008 finds sizable family size effects even after controlling for birth order of course the presence or absence of family size effects in the population as a whole is weak evidence for or against the importance of credit constraints both reason and theory suggest that some families will be free from such hurdles two existing studies have compared family size effects between groups that are more and less likely to be constrained the norwegian study of black devereux and salvanes 2005 divides the sample according to mother s education greater than or equal to 12 or 12 yr their estimates based on instrumental variables using twinning as the instrument do not clearly show greater family size effects among the presumably more constraint prone low mother s education group however the coefficients are imprecisely estimated and so the test has low power grawe 2008 examines the family size effect in britain dividing the sample by father s earnings those with fathers in the top 20 of the income distribution are presumably financially unconstrained yet strong family size effects are found in educational performance among children in these families these articles suggest that financial constraints do not explain family size effects in norway and britain but the experiences in these countries may say little about access to credit markets in the united states in particular both norway and britain provide free access to higher education within the past few years british universities have been allowed to charge as much as 3 000 pounds sterling for tuition but the individuals studied by grawe born in 1958 completed their educations long ago the present article explores the relevance of credit to family size effects in the united states dividing families based on bequest receipt of the children theory suggests that only those unconstrained by credit access would receive a financial bequest

relational goods and participation incorporating sociability into a theory of rational action theoretical explanations of why rational individuals would participate in politics remain unsatisfactory this paper addresses the problem by developing and analyzing models which include among citizens payoffs relational goods objectives which depend upon interactions among persons the models predict more participation than do the standard approaches for example under some circumstances persons will be more likely to act if they believe others will act contrary to free rider logic more importantly conditions are identified under which leaders could increase mass activity thus a model is provided of mobilization in terms of the preferences and decisions of a rational individual

are ghettos good or bad spatial separation of racial and ethnic groups may theoretically have positive or negative effects on the economic performance of those groups we examine the effects of segregation on outcomes for blacks in schooling employment and single parenthood we find that blacks in more segregated areas have significantly worse outcomes than blacks in less segregated areas we control for the endogeneity of location choice using instruments based on political factors topographical features and residence before adulthood a one standard deviation decrease in segregation would eliminate one third of the black white differences in most of our outcomes

fiscal paradise foreign tax havens and american business the tax haven affiliates of american corporations account for more than 20 percent of u s foreign direct investment and nearly a third of the foreign profits of u s firms american companies report extraordinarily high profit rates on their tax haven investments in 1982 this behavior implies that the revenue maximizing tax rate for a typical haven is around 5 8 percent american and foreign investment in tax havens has an uncertain effect on u s tax revenue but since low tax rates encourage american companies to shift profits out of high tax foreign countries it is possible that low foreign tax rates ultimately enhance u s tax collections

class size education and wages we use micro data for england and wales to examine the effects of class size on the decision to stay on in full time schooling at 16 and on wages later in life we find that class size has a sizeable and significant effect on the decision to stay on this finding is very robust wage equations show the effect of staying on is significantly positive for wages combining this with the effect of class size on the staying on decision reveals that class size significantly affects future wages reduced form models lead to much less accurate and insignificant estimates

the solaria syndrome social capital in a growing hyper technological economy we develop a dynamic model to analyze the sources and the evolution of social participation and social capital in a growing economy characterized by exogenous technical progress starting from the assumption that the well being of agents basically depends on material and relational goods we show that the best case scenarios hold when technology and social capital both support just one of the two productions at the expenses of the other however trajectories are possible where technology and social interaction balance one another in fostering the growth of both the social and the private sector of the economy along such tracks technology may play a crucial role in supporting a socially sustainable economic growth

long run welfare under externalities in consumption leisure and production a case for happy degrowth vs unhappy growth in this paper we contribute to the debate on the relationship between growth and well being by examining an endogenous growth model where we allow for externalities in consumption leisure and production we analyze three regimes a decentralized economy where each household makes isolated choices without considering their external effects a planned economy where a myopic planner fails to recognize both leisure and consumption externalities but recognizes production externalities and a planned economy with a fully informed planner we first compare the balanced growth paths under the three regimes and then we numerically investigate the transition to the optimal balanced growth path we provide a number of findings first in a decentralized economy growth or labor or both are greater than in the regime with a fully informed planner and hence are sub optimal from a welfare standpoint second a myopic intervention which overlooks consumption and leisure externalities leads to more growth and labor than in both the decentralized and the fully informed regime third we provide a case for happy degrowth a transition to the optimal balanced growth path that is associated with downscaling of production a reduction in private consumption and an ongoing increase in leisure and well being

public versus private investment in human capital endogenous growth and income inequality in this paper we present an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents in which human capital investment through formal schooling is the engine of growth we use simple functional forms for preferences technologies and income distribution to highlight the distinction between economies with public education and those with private education we find that income inequality declines more quickly under public education on the other hand private education yields greater per capita incomes unless the initial income inequality is sufficiently high we also find that societies will choose public education if a majority of agents have incomes below average

altruism in the family and selfishness in the market place adam smith argued in a famous passage that people are selfish in their market transactions it is not from the benevolence of the butcher the brewer or the baker that we expect our dinner but from their regard to their own interest we address ourselves not to their humanity but to their self love and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages 1937 p 14 in an earlier study he said with irony we are not ready to suspect any person of being defective in selfishness 1853 p 446 selfishness in market transactions has been assumed in practically all subsequent discussions of the economic system objections were dismissed with vague allusions to human nature or with an assertion that altruism loses out to selfishness in the struggle to survive in the market sector yet altruism is generally recognized to be important within a family again adam smith said

assessing the case for social experiments rs ecent academic debates pit two alternative approaches to policy evaluation against one another the first is the experimental approach based on the random assignment of accepted program applicants to a recipient or treatment group and a non recipient or control group the second is the nonexperimental or econometric approach that uses a variety of microdata sources statistical methods and behavioral models to compare the outcomes of participants in social programs with those of nonparticipants the central question addressed in this paper is whether or not randomized social experiments aid in securing answers to basic questions about the evaluation of social programs there are many distinct and complementary approaches to the study of the impact of public policy including full general equilibrium analysis of policy impacts tinbergen 1956 auerbach and kotlikoff 1987 shoven and whalley 1992 kydland and prescott 1991 and less ambitious partial equilibrium microeconomic structural research programs such as those designed to estimate the impact of taxes on labor supply both approaches offer answers to many interesting counterfactual policy questions but their credibility rests critically on the quality of the empirical input used to generate their answers

switching regression estimates of the intergenerational persistence of consumption i introduction since the seminal work of friedman 1957 and modigliani and brumberg 1954 the fact that life cycle consumption is much smoother than income has been established as one of the cornerstones in macroeconomics economic agents are able to optimize on their life cycle consumption via the means of saving and borrowing similarly family dynasties may be able to optimize on their lifetime consumption across generations through the channel of intergenerational transfers however despite strong evidence of the massive intergenerational asset transfers kotlikoff and summers 1981 few studies except perhaps mulligan 1997 1999 and waldkirch ng and cox 2004 1 have explored the intergenerational dynamics of consumption by contrast there is a large body of estimates on intergenerational relationships in income or earnings for the united states and for other countries around the world 2 investigating the intergenerational consumption relationship would complement our knowledge of the relationship of intergenerational income or earnings consumption is a more direct measure of economic well being than income furthermore understanding the intergenerational effects of parental financial transfers on consumption would be helpful for sensible public policy design if parents are transferring resources in various forms including financial transfers in an optimal manner to promote their offspring s overall well being then government transfer programs that target disadvantageous individuals at specific life stages through specific channels e g education financial aids or food stamp programs may replace or crowd out parental inputs without achieving the same optimal effects on the overall well being of these individuals broadly our study is linked to the question of how to interpret parental financial transfers to their adult children 3 financial transfers from parents can occur in the form of inter vivos i e between living persons gifts 4 or bequests 5 6 the literature has debated on whether post education financial transfers are driven by parental altruism or by an exchange arrangement in return for services delivered or expected to be delivered from adult children previous studies have found evidence that inter vivos transfers are consistent with both motives cox 1987 1990 7 yet bequest transfers consistent with neither tomes 1981 wilhelm 1996 mcgarry 1999 showed that an altruistic parent makes inter vivos transfers to ease his child s liquidity constraints therefore strongly related to her current income and arranges bequest transfers in response to the child s permanent income therefore only partially related to her current income our study is more closely linked to the view that treats bequest receipt as a signal of access to credit markets for human capital investments becker and tomes 1986 argued that altruistic parents leave financial bequests to children only after they have made efficient human capital investments in their children under imperfect credit markets there are credit constrained parents who cannot self finance these investments without forgoing own consumption that has an opportunity cost higher than the market interest rate this results in a lower consumption transmission from parents to children in constrained families besides signaling access to credit markets financial transfers including bequests enable a parent to guard his her offspring against any relative downward trending of consumption that arises from relative downward trending of lifetime income thus contribute to a higher degree of persistence in consumption from this perspective the total welfare cost of credit constraints goes beyond what is revealed by education achievement or lifetime income and the benefit of being born in a richer family is not limited to being able to afford elite education this study tests the connection between credit constraint and intergenerational consumption persistence using bequest receipt as the signal of constraint status for the parental households

optimal emission tax with endogenous location choice of duopolistic firms this study explores an optimal pre committed or ex ante environmental tax policy in a three stage game in which polluting firms strategically choose the location of their plants after the government has chosen the optimal emission tax rate we show not only that the optimal emission tax is non decreasing with the declining cost of relocation e g setup or fixed costs or else the progress of globalization but also that the firms may move back their relocated plants to the home country causing the resulting welfare to decline as a consequence the domestic welfare varies in a non monotonic way we also show that such a counterintuitive non monotonic relationship does not arise under time consistent ex post emission taxes

productivity gains from geographic concentration of human capital evidence from the cities abstract based on recent theoretical developments the argument is made that the average level of human capital is a local public good cities with higher average levels of human capital should therefore have higher wages and higher land rents after conditioning on the characteristics of individual workers and dwellings this prediction is supported by data for standard metropolitan statistical areas smsas in the united states where the smsa average levels of formal education and work experience are used as proxies for the average level of human capital the alternative explanations of omitted smsa variables and self selection are evaluated an estimate of the effect of an additional year of average education on total factor productivity is computed

what explains the industrial revolution in east asia evidence from the factor markets this paper presents dual estimates of total factor productivity growth tfpg for east asian countries while the dual estimates of tfpg for korea and hong kong are similar to the primal estimates they exceed the primal estimates by 1 percent a year for taiwan and by more than 2 percent for singapore the reason for the large discrepancy for singapore is because the return to capital has remained constant despite the high rate of capital accumulation indicated by singapore s national accounts this discrepancy is not explained by financial market controls capital income taxes risk premium changes and public investment subsidies jel o11 o16 o47 o53

rich dad smart dad decomposing the intergenerational transmission of income we construct a simple model consistent with becker and tomes that decomposes the intergenerational income elasticity into the causal effect of financial resources the mechanistic transmission of human capital and the role that human capital plays in the determination of fathers permanent incomes we show how a particular set of instrumental variables could separately identify the money and human capital transmission effects using data from a 35 percent sample of swedish sons and their fathers we show that only a minority of the intergenerational income elasticity can be plausibly attributed to the causal effect of fathers financial resources

a simple theory of predation abstractwe propose a simple theory of predatory pricing based on incumbency advantages scale economies and sequential buyers or markets the prey needs a critical scale to be successful the incumbent or predator has an initial advantage and is ready to make losses on earlier buyers to deprive the prey of the scale it needs thus making monopoly profits on later buyers several extensions are considered including cases in which scale economies exist because of demand externalities or two sided market effects and in which markets are characterized by common costs conditions under which predation may or may not take place in actual cases are also discussed

the paradoxes of the successful state abstract three issues are discussed in this paper first i argue that it is impossible to understand the east asian growth miracle without appreciating the importtant role that government policy played in stimulating private investment second i will summarize some of my work on the determinants of policy effectiveness based on a cross country comparison of export subsidy regimes and show that the usual rules of thumb on what makes for good policy uniformity transparency non selectivity etc are quite useless in predicting which policy regimes perform better in practice third i will provide some evidence that the government s social insurance role creates a complementarity between states and markets these three sets of ideas yield a more balanced and nuanced view of the role of the state in economic development than has recently become commonplace

the determinants of earnings a behavioral approach we survey the determinants of earnings and propose a framework for understanding labor market success we suggest that the advantages of the children of successful parents go considerably beyond the benefits of superior education the inheritance of wealth or the genetic inheritance of cognitive ability we suggest that noncognitive personality variables such as attitudes towards risk ability to adapt to new economic conditions hard work and the rate of time preference affect both earning and the transmission of economic status across generations

equity and educational performance in this paper we review the main issues under discussion in the field of economics of education with a special focus on latin america we seek to organize the debate about educational policies by showing how these policies respond to different models based on different assumptions and hypotheses about how the educational system functions methodological and informational problems make it difficult to test the validity of different policies this would explain the enormous number of studies in the field that conclude with conflicting policy prescriptions we also use data from chile to analyze the importance of the school in educational outcome and to explore the heterogeneous impacts of student and school characteristics on educational achievement the results obtained allow us to conclude that the school plays a very important role in explaining educational achievement we also find that low income students stand to benefit the most from attending a private school however this conclusion is valid for a marginal analysis and does not necessarily apply to a massive reallocation of students among schools

environmental and social degradation as the engine of economic growth abstract in this paper a commonly owned resource an environmental or social asset and a private good are substitutes in consumption the households can buy the private good on the market while the resource is available for free the resource is renewable but its ability to regenerate declines with the level of aggregate production each single firm producing the private good has only a negligible impact on the resource but the impact caused by the entire population of firms is considerable in the face of a decrease in the stock of the resource households are induced to increase their participation in market activities in order to raise their income and buy more private goods hence each household contributes to a further increase in aggregate production thus causing additional damage to the resource s ability to regenerate and feeding the growth process given the presence of negative externalities multiple equilibrium paths are possible in this situation social conventions may guide individuals to coordinate expectations and behavior toward a particular steady state one can speculate that the dominance of cultural values favorable to a lifestyle based on a mix of high consumption and hard work leads the economy to converge on a pareto inferior steady state

on the intergenerational transmission of economic status we present a model in which human capital investments occur over the life cycle and across generations a la becker and tomes the human capital technology features multiple stages of childhood investments college and life cycle accumulation the model can explain a wide range of intergenerational relationships while remaining empirically consistent with cross sectional inequality much of the latter is determined by early investments in children so that borrowing constraints faced by young parents are important for understanding the persistence of economic status across generations education subsidies especially early on can significantly reduce the intergenerational persistence of economic status

trust and development in this paper we examine linkages between social trust and economic development using for the first time a panel of data we confirm earlier cross sectional studies finding that trust is a significant factor in development and also show for the first time that trust significantly interacts with both investment in physical and human capital we provide a robustness analysis of our results via a set of jackknife experiments on our main equations and the trust coefficients and interactions are very tightly distributed indicating that the results are not highly sample dependent we also consider whether trust directly influences investment and find that in a panel framework it does not unless we allow for a trust education interaction in the investment equation

human capital inequality and growth a local perspective abstract a recent body of work has demonstrated the crucial role played by local human capital externalities and local school funding in generating socio economic segregation persistent poverty and low aggregate income or productivity growth we present a simple model which captures the main insights from this literature and prove three general propositions first minor differences in education technologies preferences wealth or minor imperfections in capital markets can lead to a high degree of stratification second stratification makes inequality in education and income more persistent across generations the same is true for total wealth provided the rich succeed in capturing the rents created by their secession finally this polarization or urban areas can be very inefficient especially in the long run

nonlinearities in intergenerational earnings mobility consequences for cross country comparisons we show that the patterns of intergenerational earnings mobility in denmark finland and norway unlike those for the us and the uk are highly nonlinear the nordic relationship between log earnings of sons and fathers is flat in the lower segments of the fathers earnings distribution sons growing up in the poorest households have the same adult earnings prospects as sons in moderately poor households and is increasingly positive in middle and upper segments this convex pattern contrasts sharply with our findings for the us and the uk where the relationship is much closer to being linear as a result cross country comparisons of intergenerational earnings elasticities may be misleading with respect to transmission mechanisms in the central parts of the earnings distribution and uninformative in the tails of the distribution it is now a stylised fact that intergenerational earnings mobility is higher in the nordic welfare state economies than in more market oriented economies such as the us see

returns to skills around the world evidence from piaac abstract existing estimates of the labor market returns to human capital give a distorted picture of the role of skills across different economies international comparisons of earnings analyses rely almost exclusively on school attainment measures of human capital and evidence incorporating direct measures of cognitive skills is mostly restricted to early career workers in the united states analysis of the new piaac survey of adult skills over the full lifecycle in 23 countries shows that the focus on early career earnings leads to underestimating the lifetime returns to skills by about one quarter on average a one standard deviation increase in numeracy skills is associated with an 18 percent wage increase among prime age workers but this masks considerable heterogeneity across countries eight countries including all nordic countries have returns between 12 and 15 percent while six are above 21 percent with the largest return being 28 percent in the united states estimates are remarkably robust to different earnings and skill measures additional controls and various subgroups instrumental variable models that use skill variation stemming from school attainment parental education or compulsory schooling laws provide even higher estimates intriguingly returns to skills are systematically lower in countries with higher union density stricter employment protection and larger public sector shares

new evidence on altruism a study of tiaa cref retirees this paper investigates the role in household wealth accumulation of saving for bequests it employs data from a 1988 survey of tiaa cref annuitants designed to measure pension and other net worth as well as lifetime earnings about half of the households in the data plan to leave estates and the authors find that their behavior conforms with theoretical altruistic models for the same families the amount of wealth that the authors attribute to estate building is large nevertheless altruism towards one s children does not seem to be the major explanation of saving in the overall sample copyright 1996 by american economic association

teacher experience and the class size effect experimental evidence abstract we analyze teacher experience as a moderating factor for the effect of class size reduction on student achievement in the early grades using data from the tennessee star experiment with random assignment of teachers and students to classes of different sizes the analysis is motivated by the high costs of class size reductions and the need to identify the circumstances under which this investment is most rewarding we find a class size effect only for senior teachers the effect exists at all deciles of the achievement distribution but is less pronounced at lower deciles we further show that senior teachers outperform rookies only in small classes interestingly the class size effect is likely due to a higher quality of instruction in small classes

intergenerational correlations in labor market status a comparison of the united states and germany this paper uses data from the panel study of income dynamics and the german socioeconomic panel to calculate comparable measures of the intergenerational correlations of earnings hours and education in the us and germany the results indicate that there is remarkable similarity across the two countries in the correlations of earnings and of annual work hours of fathers and sons all of the correlations which involve women appear to be weaker in germany than the us perhaps due to the greater integration of women in the us into the labor market they find weak correlations in earnings and work hours for parent child pairs of different sexes in both countries they also find that intergenerational correlations in educational attainment are considerably stronger in the us authors

the schooling of southern blacks the roles of legal activism and private philanthropy 1910 1960 improvements in education and educational quality are widely acknowledged to be major contributors to black economic progress in the twentieth century this paper investigates the sources of improvement in black education in the south in the first half of the century and demonstrates the important roles of social activism especially naacp litigation and private philanthropy in improving the quality and availability of public schooling many scholars view education as a rival to social activism in explaining black economic progress but such a view misses the important role of philanthropic and legal interventions in promoting education

social capital innovation and growth evidence from europe this paper investigates the interplay between social capital innovation and economic growth in the european union we identify innovation as an important mechanism that transforms social capital into economic growth in an empirical investigation of 102 european regions in the period 1990 2002 we show that higher innovation performance is conducive to economic growth and that social capital affects growth indirectly by fostering innovation our estimates suggest that there is only a limited role for a direct effect of social capital on economic growth

education policy and intergenerational transfers in equilibrium this paper compares partial and general equilibrium effects of alternative financial aid policies intended to promote college participation we build an overlapping generations life cycle heterogeneous agent incomplete markets model with education labor supply and consumption saving decisions altruistic parents make inter vivos transfers to their children labor supply during college government grants and loans as well as private loans complement parental transfers as sources of funding for college education we find that the current financial aid system in the u s improves welfare and removing it would reduce gdp by two percentage points in the long run any further relaxation of government sponsored loan limits would have no salient effects the short run partial equilibrium effects of expanding tuition grants especially their need based component are sizeable however long run general equilibrium effects are 3 4 times smaller every additional dollar of government grants crowds out 20 30 cents of parental transfers

regression toward mediocrity in economic stature this paper provides estimates of the correlation in lifetime earnings between fathers and sons intergenerational data from the national longitudinal survey are used earlier studies conducted for the united states report elasticities of children s earnings with respect to parent s earnings of 0 2 or less suggesting extensive integenerational mobility these estimates however are biased downward by error contaminated measures of lifetime economic status estimates presented in this paper correct for the problem of measurement error and find the intergenerational correlation in income to be on the order of 0 4 this suggests considerably less intergenerational mobility than previously believed jel j62

intergenerational income mobility in the united states social scientists and policy analysts have long expressed concern about the extent of intergenerational income mobility in the united states but remarkably little empirical evidence is available the few existing estimates of the intergenerational correlation in income have been biased downward by measurement error unrepresentative samples or both new estimates based on intergenerational data from the panel study of income dynamics imply that the intergenerational correlation in long run income is at least 0 4 indicating dramatically less mobility than suggested by earlier research copyright 1992 by american economic association

random earnings differences lifetime liquidity constraints and altruistic intergenerational transfers abstract this paper develops a model of private savings behavior in which households care about their descendants cannot have negative net worth and have lifetime earnings depending on random draws from an exogenous distribution of abilities the elements interact very lucky parents are likely to leave large estates constrained children are unusually likely to receive intergenerational transfers the paper proves the existence of a stationary cross sectional distribution of wealth endogenously determines where liquidity constraints will bind and shows that the long term interest rate must be such that ricardian neutrality fails its last section generates several illustrative numerical simulations

are risk aversion and impatience related to cognitive ability is the way that people make risky choices or tradeoffs over time related to cognitive ability this paper investigates whether there is a link between cognitive ability risk aversion and impatience using a representative sample of the population and incentive compatible measures we conduct choice experiments measuring risk aversion and impatience over an annual time horizon for a randomly drawn sample of roughly 1 000 german adults subjects also take part in two different tests of cognitive ability which correspond to sub modules of one of the most widely used iq tests interviews are conducted in subjects own homes we find that lower cognitive ability is associated with greater risk aversion and more pronounced impatience these relationships are significant and robust to controlling for personal characteristics educational attainment income and measures of credit constraints we perform a series of additional robustness checks which help rule out other possible confounds

student abilities during the expansion of us education abstract the us experienced two dramatic changes in the structure of education in a 50 year period the first was a large expansion of educational attainment the second an increase in test score gaps between college bound and non college bound students this paper documents the impact of these two trends on the composition of school groups by ability and the importance of these composition effects for wages the main finding is that there is a growing gap between the abilities of high school and college educated workers that accounts for one half of the college wage premium for recent cohorts and for the entire rise of the college wage premium between the 1910 and 1960 birth cohorts

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

human capital pricing equations with an application to estimating the effect of schooling quality on earnings this paper formulates and estimates alternative models for the pricing of labor services we present economic models that rationalize empirical specifications in the literature and we offer evidence on the validity of those specifications widely used efficiency units models of labor services are inconsistent with evidence from the u s labor market a model of heterogeneous skills provides a more accurate description of earnings data we present evidence that the pursuit of comparative advantage and selective migration are important features of the u s labor market when these features are included in the model the only support for an effect of schooling quality on earnings is through the return to college education three interactions are empirically important in explaining log wage equations a between schooling quality and education b between regional labor market shocks and education and c between region of residence and regionof birth because of this third interaction which can arise from comparative advantage in the labor market no unique quality effect on returns to education can be defined independently of the market in which it is used

unequal english wealth since 1670 new data on probated wealth landownership debts and occupations extend our view of the distribution of english wealth back from 1911 to 1670 there were widening gaps in mean wealth between the top landed plus merchant classes and the middle classes across the industrial revolution century size distributions for individual assets also widened so did those for income or total wealth including human but nonhuman net worth did not become more unequal because of important shifts in the land share all inequality measures before 1914 exceeded all those since 1950 the estimates illuminate classical theories of distribution

thou shalt not covet prohibitions temptation and moral values abstract this paper proposes a theory of the relationship between prohibitions and temptation in the presence of self control problems moral values may increase individual material welfare and utility by serving as a self commitment device the model investigates the relationship between morality and temptation the individual gains from morality the interaction between external sanctions and moral self punishment and the spread and strength of individually optimal moral values the empirical analysis based on survey data for a large set of countries documents a hump shaped pattern of morality in social class which supports the theoretical predictions of the model

economic and mechanical models of intergenerational transmission the author critically examines gary beckers attempt to integrate the theory of income distribution intragenerational differences with the theory of mobility intergenerational differences in an economic model of the family he assesses beckers claims of distinctiveness integration explanatory power and surprise and arrives at a rather skeptical view of the contribution that the core of microeconomics has made to this study of the family a reply by becker is included pp 514 8 excerpt

why the apple doesn t fall far understanding intergenerational transmission of human capital parents with higher education levels have children with higher education levels however is this because parental education actually changes the outcomes of children suggesting an important spillover of education policies or is it merely that more able individuals who have higher education also have more able children this paper proposes to answer this question with a unique dataset from norway using the reform of the education system that was implemented in different municipalities at different times in the 1960s as an instrument for parental education we find little evidence of a causal relationship between parents education and children s education despite significant ols relationships we find 2sls estimates that are consistently lower than the ols estimates with the only statistically significant effect being a positive relationship between mother s education and son s education these findings suggest that the high correlations between parents and children s education are due primarily to family characteristics and inherited ability and not education spillovers

human capital heterogeneity and estimated degrees of intergenerational mobility we study the parental investment model of intergenerational mobility where heterogeneity in innate earnings ability and parents altruism rate is explicitly modelled we show that heterogeneity increases the difficulty of detecting the existence of borrowing constrained families conversely the presence of heterogeneity means that economic and linear statistical models of inheritance generate similar intergenerational data on consumption and earnings we also suggest that nay cross country differences in intergenerational earnings mobility are more readily interpreted according to the heterogeneity of inherited ability rather than optimal family responses to countiy specific institutions for accumulating human capital the relationship between a citizen s economic status and his family background is an important clue for understanding and evaluating a country s economic performance some eg bowles 1972 have suggested a close relationship between economic status and family background indicates some failure of labour markets or of institutions fostering investment in human capital others eg altonji et al 1992 mulligan 1997 table 4 1 have offered an apparently contradictory suggestion that efficient allocations involve a very close relationship on some measures between the economic status of parents and children still others find family background effects to be the most offensive sources of inequality regardless of whether those effects are consistent with efficiency empirical studies of this relationship date back to the earliest days of statistical social science eg galton s 1869 british study of the success and eminence of relatives and many can be found outside the field of economics see goode s 1966 survey for a few examples but the increasing availability of new data sets for exploring the relationship between earnings income wealth and consumption of parents and years later of adult children has appropriately led to new and better econometric estimates of intergenerational mobility or the intergenerational auto regression of various measures of economic status and has even permitted some careful comparisons of those estimates across countries however fewer results are available on interpreting such estimates in terms of economic models of inheritance or of the labour market loury 1981 and becker and tomes 1986 are among the exceptions where they show how access to capital markets or other means of

the importance of bundling in a gorman lancaster model of earnings the idea that the labor market of individuals can be decomposed into payments to separate productive attributes has an enduring appeal in economics assuming that demographic groups differ only in their endowments of productive characteristics it is possible to rationalize observed demographic earnings differentials without invoking the arguments that characteristics specific to a particular demographic group are direct objects of employer demand by aggregating skills over all demographic groups it is possible to produce a theory of the market determination of the prices of skills held in different amounts by different demographic groups this paper considers conditions under which characteristics are uniformly priced across sectors of a multisector economy the paper presents empirical evidence that rejects uniform pricing of characteristics as a description of the us labor market bundling may account for this evudence but other hypotheses do as well authors

where has all the education gone cross national data show no association between increases in human capital attributable to the rising educational attainment of the labor force and the rate of growth of output per worker this implies that the association of educational capital growth with conventional measures of total factor production is large strongly statistically significant and negative these are on average results derived from imposing a constant coefficient however the development impact of education varied widely across countries and has fallen short of expectations for three possible reasons first the institutional governance environment could have been sufficiently perverse that the accumulation of educational capital lowered economic growth second marginal returns to education could have fallen rapidly as the supply of educated labor expanded while demand remained stagnant third educational quality could have been so low that years of schooling created no human capital the extent and mix of these three phenomena vary from country to country in explaining the actual economic impact of education or the lack thereof

human capital and economic growth tests based on the international evaluation of educational achievement abstract using the secondary school science achievement scores obtained by the international association for the evaluation of educational achievement this paper provides more direct tests than others on the effect of human capital on economic growth bearing important implications for theory and olicy

a superior measure of consumption from the panel study of income dynamics abstract this paper provides a simple technique for assigning a measure of total consumption to households in the panel study of income dynamics psid using regressions from the consumer expenditure surveys of 1972 1973 and 1983 linear predictions of total consumption are estimated which are stable over time and explain up to 78 percent of the total variance in consumption

galton versus the human capital approach to inheritance a century ago francis galton proposed a simple yet powerful model of inheritance gary backer s human capital model is often used to analyze important empirical and policy questions but does it dominate galton s from a positive point of view i derive nine implicatiions of the human capital approach that are distinct from galton s evidence from the pis scf and nlsy micro data sets as well as results reported in previous literatures suggest that four of the unique implications are refuted two implications are verified and mixed results are obtained for three others some extensions of economics recently developed by becker and others when applied to inheritance may improve economics predictions

intergenerational persistence of earnings the role of early and college education recent empirical evidence from the united states indicates a high degree of persistence in earnings across generations designing effective public policies to increase social mobility requires identifying and measuring the major sources of persistence and inequality in earnings we provide a quantitative model of intergenerational human capital transmission that focuses on three sources innate ability early education and college education we find that approximately one half of the intergenerational correlation in earnings is accounted for by parental investment in education in particular early education we show that these results have important implications for education policy

does school quality matter returns to education and the characteristics of public schools in the united states this paper estimates the effects of school quality measured by the pupil teacher ratio average term length and relative teacher pay on the rate of return to education for men born between 1920 and 1949 using earnings data from the 1980 census we find that men who were educated in states with higher quality schools have a higher return to additional years of schooling rates of return are also higher for individuals from states with better educated teachers and with a higher fraction of female teachers holding constant school quality measures however we find no evidence that parental income or education affects average state level rates of return

do the rich save more a new view based on intergenerational transfers do richer people have higher saving rates the short run and long run consumption functions have different answers to this important question which results in an important consumption puzzle that was a focus of macroeconomic research in the 1950s and 1960s in a recent empirical contribution dynan skinner and zeldes 2004 revive this old question and make this consumption puzzle more intriguing by showing that the average propensity to consume decreases not only with current income but also with lifetime income this paper provides a model that helps resolve this puzzle from an intergenerational perspective

unobservable family and individual contributions to the distributions of income and wealth this paper uses combinations of full brothers half brothers and fathers and sons to measure the effect of common family background on a household s income and wealth while the data are drawn from a nineteenth century population the intraclass correlation for income ranges from 13 to 18 which is similar to that found in modern samples intraclass correlations for wealth are significantly higher 18 35 than are those for income intraclass correlations of half brothers compared to those for full brothers suggest that fathers play a dominant role in the transmission of the common family effect when unobserved background is decomposed into individual and family effects the individual effect dominates the family effect for income while the family effect dominates the individual effect for wealth

patterns of intergenerational mobility in income and earnings this paper characterizes the patterns of intergenerational mobility in the united states using data for matched parent child pairs from the national longitudinal surveys in general what is found is far from the extremes of either perfect mobility or perfect immobility parents log income explains only about 9 percent to 11 percent of the variation in children s log incomes earnings exhibit more mobility than does total income and the difference is most striking for daughters the paper also identifies the influence of family background characteristics on mobility the addition of these background variables adds another 3 to 5 percent age points to the r2 in the intergenerational earnings and income regressions copyright 1992 by mit press

the family inheritance and the intergenerational transmission of inequality unequal inheritance of material wealth is commonly considered a major cause of inequality in consumption however theoretical models of the intergenerational transmission of inequality by becker blinder and ishikawa imply that unequal inheritance may either increase or reduce consumption inequality differences in inherited wealth resulting from unequal parental incomes increase inequality in recipients consumption however unequal bequests caused by differences among families in the endowed ability of children or the costs of producing human capital are equalizing empirical results confirm these predictions the inheritance received by children is inversely related to both children s income and parental education thus bequests are compensatory in that ceteris paribus low income children inherit more than their advantaged contemporaries

competition cooperation and the neighboring farmer effect abstract in this paper we propose a model that explains how cooperation can emerge spontaneously between firms in a highly competitive market environment the basic idea is that the more competitive is the market the less costly it is for firms to help each other like good neighbors cooperation takes the form of sharing technical know how which speeds up the adoption of new technologies normally developed elsewhere that spur industrial development the model comports with the development history of japan s first example of successful industrial development its cotton spinning industry whose conditions match those of firms in small open economies today

the effects of cognitive ability and high school quality on college entry decisions nonparametric estimation of parameters of interest the decisions to attend college are analysed and nonparametric predictions compared to those obtained from the widely used logit model the impacts of measured cognitive ability and proxies for high school quality on the decisions to attend college are examined for a sample of white and black males and females from the usa two different parameters of interest which isolate the effects of ability and high school quality on college entry decisions are described and estimated by integrating out the effect of other covariates it is found that measured cognitive ability is an extremely important determinant of college entry for all race and gender groups at the same point in the ability distribution blacks are more likely to select into college than whites and females more likely than males of the same racial group proxies for high school quality such as teacher education student teacher ratios school enrolment and library size are shown to have little or no effects on the likelihood of college entry

productivity growth and factor prices in east asia the industrial revolution in several east asian countries over the last three decades is one of the most important economic events in the postwar era several recent growthaccounting exercises have found that their extraordinary rate of output growth was due primarily to an equally impressive rate of factor accumulation with little due to technological progress see alwyn young 1992 1995 jong il kim and lawrence lau 1994 susan collins and barry bosworth 1996 since these studies suggest that factor accumulation has been the lead actor in east asia s growth many economists have reached the conclusion that the industrial revolution in east asia can largely be explained in terms of transition dynamics in a neoclassical growth framework see e g paul krugman 1994 n gregory mankiw 1995 if this view is correct the lesson from east asia s experience is that there are no easy solutions for a poor country that seeks to join the league of wealthy nations low levels of investment and education may be the result of bad policies but once proper policies are enacted a poor country faces the grim prospect of a further decline in its already low standards of living as it devotes more resources to investment and education the central point of this paper is that if east asia s growth was largely driven by capital accumulation with little technological progress the return to capital should have fallen dramatically as capital accumulation encounters diminishing returns for example the capital output ratio for korea computed from the national accounts has increased at an average rate of 3 4 percent per year from 1966 to 1990 while that of singapore has increased at an average rate of 3 7 percent per year from 1968 to 1990 by dividing the share of payments to capital in total income by the capital output

intergenerational mobility and marital sorting we use data from the german socio economic panel and the british household panel survey to estimate the extent of intergenerational economic mobility in a framework that highlights the role played by assortative mating we find that assortative mating plays an important role on average about 40 50 of the covariance between parents and own permanent family income can be attributed to the person to whom one is married this effect is driven by strong spouse correlations in human capital which are larger in germany than britain 2006 the authors journal compilation royal economic society 2006

should continued family firms face lower taxes than other estates abstract taxes on estates and inheritances may induce heirs to discontinue family firms because firm dissolution incurs transaction costs a preferential tax treatment of transferred family businesses seems to be desirable from a macroeconomic viewpoint the support of dynastic succession however entails also a cost on the economy if firm continuation by less able heirs prevents entry into entrepreneurship here we investigate analytically and quantitatively the trade off between transaction costs saved and creative destruction prevented we find that a unique general equilibrium exists at which depending on the institutional setup low ability heirs either abandon type 1 or continue type 2 a family business a calibration of the model with german data suggests that preferential tax treatment of family firms has severe negative consequences on macroeconomic performance if it causes a threshold crossing from type 1 to type 2 equilibrium it also reveals that the descendants of less able entrepreneurs who were caused by continuation friendly tax policy to keep a family business always lose relative to their status in an economy without such a policy

hypergrowth in an east asian nic public policy and capital accumulation in singapore abstract singapore has produced the world s highest investment ratios known to account for growth more rapid than in any other less developed country over the past three decades but such high investment needs explanation we trace singapore s public policy of increasing tax concessions and infrastructural spending in effect subsidies to private firms and use an open economy neoclassical model to show how by attracting footloose foreign capital and raising investment levels these policy measures can drive growth the consequent transformation of living standards in singapore suggests in accordance with theory but contrary to most practice that for some less developed countries effectively zero tax on foreign direct investment may be a beneficial strategy yet for both singapore and other would be late industrializers major issues of development strategy arise from the kind of input driven growth analyzed in this article

why is capital so immobile internationally possible explanations and implications for capital income taxation the evidence on international capital immobility is extensive including the lack of international portfolio diversification real interest differentials across countries and the high correlation between domestic savings and investment the authors develop a model with asymmetric information between countries that helps rationalize all the above observations and then examine the implications of this model for optimal domestic tax policy without asymmetric information past work showed that small open economies should not impose corporate income taxes with asymmetric information the optimal policy instead involves government subsidies to capital imports some omitted factors that argue against subsidizing capital imports are explored briefly copyright 1996 by american economic association

changing roles of ability and education in u s intergenerational mobility using data on young adults from the 1979 and 1997 national longitudinal survey of youth we investigate the changing roles of ability and education in the transmission of economic status across generations we find that ability plays a substantially diminished role for the most recent cohort whereas education plays a much larger role the first finding results primarily from a smaller effect of children s ability on status the second from an increased correlation between parental status and educational attainment a replication of the analysis by gender reveals that the changes in the role of ability are largely driven by men whereas the changes in education s role are largely driven by women jel j62 i24

the developmental state government and singapore s economic development since 1960 abstract government interventionism is widely acknowledged to characterize less developed countries but consensus is lacking as to whether it promotes economic development and if so how the present article analyzes the nature of government involvement in the singapore model of economic development and emergence of a developmental state closely associated with this model it compares singapore s experience with south korea s and taiwan s where government also contributed to development success and with other asian countries where government failed to play a strong developmental role

the inheritance of inequality how level is the intergenerational playing field what are the causal mechanisms that underlie the intergenerational transmission of economic status are these mechanisms amenable to public policies in a way that would make the attainment of economic success more fair these are the questions we will try to answer

school quality and black white relative earnings a direct assessment the wage differential between black and white men fell from 40 percent in 1960 to 25 percent in 1980 it has been argued that this convergence reflects improvements in the relative quality of black schools to test this hypothesis we assembled data on pupil teacher ratios annual teacher pay and term length for black and white schools in the eighteen segregated states from 1915 to 1966 these data are linked to estimated returns to education for southern born men from different cohorts and states in 1960 1970 and 1980 improvements in the relative quality of black schools explain 20 percent of the narrowing of the black white earnings gap between 1960 and 1980

taxation of investment and savings in a world economy the equilibrium of capital and equilibrium market prices are derived for a world economy with a unified securities market mobile capital no uncertainty and varying tax rates on different sources of income in each country the paper then characterizes optimal tax rates for a small country in this setting focusing on the peculiar incentives created when the before tax rate of return differs among securities due to differences in their typical tax treatment copyright 1986 by american economic association

the quality of schooling quantity alone is misleading although much research discusses the quantity of schooling as an effective impact on productivity and earnings most such research leaves out the idea of the quality of schooling which may cause biases in the estimated returns to schooling this paper consequently attempts to extend the standard mincerian approach to incorporate school quality as well as quantity it demonstrates how exclusion of quality in the standard procedure may cause biases in the estimated returns to years of schooling probably in the upward direction the paper explores the implications of this extension of the standard model for the case of young brazilian males it shows that the estimate of the private return to years of schooling using the preferred quality inclusive specification is only one half the estimate using the standard procedure indicating substantial upward bias in the standard estimates it further outlines a method for estimating a social return to quality and finds that it exceeds substantially the social return to quantity the paper then shows why this in turn suggests there may be an equity productivity trade off in schooling investments

social capital inclusive networks and economic performance abstract empirical studies show that the relationship between social capital and economic performance is ambiguous the paper points to the potential trade off between the sustainability of self enforcement and the magnitude of gains from trade in social networks as an explanation based on an infinitely repeated multi player prisoners dilemma it is shown how self enforcement of cooperation within a network is influenced by its inclusiveness its communication capacity and the complexity of the exchange setting the paper shows that inclusive social capital can combine both low enforcement costs and high gains from trade even in a complex exchange setting

explaining international differences in male skill wage differentials by differences in demand and supply of skill this paper explores the hypothesis that wage differentials between skill groups across countries are consistent with a demand and supply framework using micro data from 15 countries we find that about one third of the variation in relative wages between skill groups across countries is explained by differences in net supply of skill groups the demand and supply framework does an even better job at explaining relative wages of low skilled workers

stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational mobility tables summary the aim of this paper is to test for stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational socio economic mobility tables in other words we question whether having a parent from a high socio economic status is never worse than having one with a lower status using existing inferential procedures for testing unconditional stochastic monotonicity we first test a set of 149 intergenerational mobility tables in 35 different countries and find that monotonicity cannot be rejected in hardly any table in addition we propose new testing procedures for testing conditional stochastic monotonicity and investigate whether monotonicity still holds after conditioning on a number of covariates such as education cognitive and non cognitive skills based on the ncds cohort data from the uk our results provide evidence that monotonicity holds even conditionally moreover we do not find large differences in our results when comparing social class and wage class mobility copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

college entry by blacks since 1970 the role of college costs family background and the returns to education college enrollment of black 18 19 year old high school graduates declined from 1980 through 1984 and then rebounded after 1984 this paper presents data from a time series of cross sections of 18 19 year old youths from 1973 through 1988 to test the role of family background direct college costs local economic conditions and returns to college in driving these trends the evidence suggests that on the one hand increases in direct college costs were driving enrollment rates downward throughout the eighties on the other hand dramatic increases in average parental education for black youths exerted upward pressure on college enrollment by blacks particularly in the latter half of the decade the net effect of these two factors contributed to the pattern of decline and recovery observed during the eighties

a new international database on education quality 1965 2010 the aim of this paper is to propose a new database allowing a comparative evaluation of the relative performance of schooling systems around the world we measure this performance through pupils achievement in standardized tests we merge all existing regional and international student achievement tests by using a specific methodology compared to other existing databases our approach innovates on several ways especially by including regional student achievement tests and intertemporal comparable indicators we provide a dataset of indicators of quality of student achievement iqsa for 103 countries areas in primary education and 111 countries areas in secondary education between 1965 and 2010

is the extended family altruistically linked direct tests using micro data this paper uses panel study of income dynamics data on parents and their adult children to test the standard altruism model this model predicts that within the extended family the distribution of consumption is independent of the distribution of resources the authors findings strongly reject this prediction copyright 1992 by american economic association