financial futures hedging via goal programming this paper presents multiperiod multiple objective goal programming as an alternative to the more conventional hedge ratio approaches to financial futures hedging the described model offers the potential benefits of i simultaneous achievement of multiple hedge related objectives i e minimization of transactions and margin opportunity costs regulation of cash flow and maximization of profits accruing from both the cash and futures positions and ii periodic modification and updating of the futures position as suggested by actual observed prices and interest rates throughout the hedging period to assess its overall effectiveness the model was applied to develop appropriate hedging strategies for three separate time periods each representing a unique interest rate trend i e upward movement downward movement and no change since real world implementation of the model requires the use of forecast data independent forecasts of both cash and futures prices were generated via 1 moving average 2 exponential smoothing and 3 random walk techniques in progressing through each of the 13 week time periods all forecasts were updated with the previous weeks actual price data revised forecasts and actual price data were then incorporated into the model constraints on a weekly schedule this approach in essence provided weekly futures activity recommendations based on the most recent price and interest rate developments observed at any point during the hedging period the realized gains or losses were then compared to the previously derived perfect foresight model results and to the traditional hedge ratio results this allowed for evaluation of the model s effectiveness under varying forecast methods and varying interest rate trends the results show that the goal programming model outperformed other strategies in most cases

budget processes and commitment to fiscal discipline abstract we present a framework of investigation into the political economy of the budget process our model suggests that institutional rules governing the budget process can be found to limit the importance of fiscal illusion empirical evidence supports that proposition the choice of rules depends on the political environment as well as the dominant source of uncertainty in the budget process

a general mean variance approximation to expected utility for short holding periods the mean variance model is precisely consistent with the expected utility hypothesis only in the special cases of normally distributed security returns or quadratic utility functions there is little evidence however that security returns follow normal distributions see 13 for references and quadratic preferences can be shown to generate implausible results exhibiting increasing absolute risk aversion in the pratt ll arrow 1 2 sense and displaying negative marginal utility after some finite wealth level in addition hakansson 4 has shown that single period mean variance efficient portfolios can have disastrous consequences over time even when return distributions are stationary such criticisms of the mean variance approach within the von neumann morgenstern framework have prompted several writers to suggest that investors maximize the expected value of utility functions with more realistic properties while others have criticized the single period focus of the model one popular alternative utility function is the logarithmic function which exhibits decreasing absolute risk aversion and conveniently leads to myopic decision processes through time i e investors treat each period as if it were the last basing investment decisions on that period s wealth and return distributions only 8 4 other utility functions with constant relative risk aversion such as the power function also imply myopic decision rules within a multiperiod setting

multi objective stochastic programming for portfolio selection abstract generally in the portfolio selection problem the decision maker dm considers simultaneously conflicting objectives such as rate of return liquidity and risk multi objective programming techniques such as goal programming gp and compromise programming cp are used to choose the portfolio best satisfying the dm s aspirations and preferences in this article we assume that the parameters associated with the objectives are random and normally distributed we propose a chance constrained compromise programming model cccp as a deterministic transformation to multi objective stochastic programming portfolio model cccp is based on cp and chance constrained programming ccp models the proposed program is illustrated by means of a portfolio selection problem from the tunisian stock exchange market

dynamic efficiency in the two sector overlapping generations model abstract this paper examines dynamic efficiency in the context of a two sector overlapping generations model first conditions for dynamic efficiency in a centrally planned economy are derived then in a competitive environment the implications of dynamic in efficiency for the steady state relative price and steady state welfare are demonstrated for the special case of a log linear world the golden rule savings rate is identified along with restrictions on parameters that yield dynamically efficient steady states the results are further demonstrated via a welfare analysis of a simple tax subsidy scheme

international portfolio choice and political instability risk a multi objective approach abstract the benefits derived from international portfolio diversification into foreign nations including the less developed countries are well documented yet this practice is discouraged due to market imperfections such as political instability in practice nations may be differentiated further by many aspects such as border controls or political and social trends which constrain private transactions and financial decisions this paper attempts to examine 1 whether the home asset bias in a portfolio holding is associated with higher political instability risk and 2 to what extent international diversification among stocks in the presence of such risk outperforms domestic stock portfolios using alternative instability risk proxies in the context of a discrete time version of mean variance framework we corroborate the impact of this type of risk on international portfolio investment decisions

financial portfolio management through the goal programming model current state of the art abstract since markowitz 1952 formulated the portfolio selection problem many researchers have developed models aggregating simultaneously several conflicting attributes such as the return on investment risk and liquidity the portfolio manager generally seeks the best combination of stocks assets that meets his her investment objectives the goal programming gp model is widely applied to finance and portfolio management the aim of this paper is to present the different variants of the gp model that have been applied to the financial portfolio selection problem from the 1970s to nowadays

portfolio analysis with factors and scenarios recently there has been a growing interest in the scenario model of covariance as an alternative to the one factor or many factor models we show how the covariance matrix resulting from the scenario model can easily be made diagonal by adding new variables linearly related to the amounts invested note the meanings of these new variables note how portfolio variance divides itself into within scenario and between scenario variances and extend the results to models in which scenarios and factors both appear where factor distributions and effects may or may not be scenario sensitive

a fuzzy goal programming approach to portfolio selection abstract portfolio selection is a usual multiobjective problem this paper will try to deal with the optimum portfolio for a private investor taking into account three criteria return risk and liquidity these objectives in general are not crisp from the point of view of the investor so we will deal with them in fuzzy terms the problem formulation is a goal programming g p one where the goals and the constraints are fuzzy we will apply a fuzzy g p approach to the above problem to obtain a solution then we will offer the investor help in handling the results

an alternative test of the capital asset pricing model reply in our 1980 paper we tested the joint hypothesis that prices are determined by the mean variance mv capital asset pricing model capm and that beliefs are stationary by focusing on the invariance law of prices we avoided the questionable practice of estimating ex ante expectations with ex post returns moreover we circumvented the need to identify the true market portfolio and hence avoided the ambiguity noted by richard roll 1977 in the traditional security market line sml tests of the same joint hypothesis however stuart turnbull and ralph winter t w and richard sweeney point to a further inconsistency in the joint hypothesis that they believe can be removed by relaxing the stationarity assumption this new concern is fundamental in that it applies to all empirical tests which assume stationarity of the return distribution whether they are simply tests of the capm or tests employing the capm the concern would apply a fortiori to tests that assume stationary betas as well both comments also suggest that the ad hoc addition of a random error term to our invariance law equation and the subsequent statistical tests of it are unnecessary we first address these two criticisms and then address some further criticisms raised separately by t w and sweeney

a minimax portfolio selection strategy with equilibrium a new minimax model on optimal portfolio selection with uncertainty of both randomness and estimation in inputs is established and the corresponding optimal portfolio is derived analytically based on this result a sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of a nonnegative equilibrium price system under which the total demand and supply of each asset are equal is provided and an explicit formula for such a price system is obtained furthermore some properties of the equilibrium are discussed

multivariate stochastic volatility via wishart processes financial models for asset and derivatives pricing risk management portfolio optimization and asset allocation rely on volatility forecasts time varying volatility models such as generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and stochastic volatility svol have been successful in improving forecasts over constant volatility models we develop a new multivariate svol framework for modeling financial data that assumes covariance matrices stochastically varying through a wishart process in our formulation scalar variances naturally extend to covariance matrices rather than to vectors of variances as in traditional svol models model fitting is performed using markov chain monte carlo simulation from the posterior distribution because of the model s complexity an efficiently designed gibbs sampler is described that produces inferences with a manageable amount of computation our approach is illustrated on a multivariate time series of monthly industry portfolio returns a test of the ec

normality solvency and portfolio choice this paper examines whether investors with power utility functions choose mean vari ance mv efficient portfolios when returns are approximately normally distributed and there is borrowing or lending at a riskless interest rate the results show that the unlevered portfolios of power utility investors plot very closely to the mv efficient frontier how ever there are marked differences in the mix of risky assets regardless of whether the portfolios are highly concentrated or widely diversified such differences allow power investors to remain solvent even when they lever their optimal portfolios to a greater ex tent than less risk averse mv investors who risk bankruptcy it is concluded that the investment policies of power utility and mv investors with similar risk aversion measures are not as similar as is commonly believed this is particularly true for high power inves tors unless explicit solvency constraints are imposed on the mv problem and for low power investors when quadratic utility approximations are made to the power utility func tions these differences in the investment policies of power utility and mv investors lead us to question the widely accepted assertion that the assumptions of homogeneous beliefs normality a riskless asset and risk averse investors imply the simple mv capm where all investors including power utility investors hold combinations ofthe market portfolio and the riskless asset

the mean variance optimization puzzle security portfolios and food portfolios the markowitz mean variance optimization framework presents a puzzle although it is the standard model of portfolio construction investors rarely use it and when used it is constrained so much that portfolios reflect the constraints more than the optimization why do investors dislike unadulterated optimized mean variance portfolios the typical answer focuses on biases introduced by estimation errors more important is the fact that investors goals are quite different from mean variance optimization people care about more than cost and nutrition when they construct their diets they also care about palatability similarly investors care about more than expected returns and variance as they construct their securities portfolios they also care about the investment equivalent of palatability we use an analogy between security portfolios and food portfolios to explore the nature of the gap between intuitively appealing portfolios and mean variance optimized portfolios

a note on portfolio selection with restrictions on leverage abstract this note focuses on a mean variance asset allocation framework having restrictions on leverage namely where investors are constrained either to hold funds in a risk free asset i e to lend or to hold debt i e to borrow it is shown that the optimal portfolio in a constrained leverage situation will not have the same composition as the optimal portfolio in an unconstrained situation we give formal justification for the intuitive notion that the more debt an investor is constrained to hold the more the investor should tilt the remaining investments towards a portfolio of less risky assets conversely the greater the proportion an investor is constrained to hold in a risk free asset the more the investor should tilt remaining investment towards a portfolio of more risky assets

on the sensitivity of mean variance efficient portfolios to changes in asset means some analytical and computational results tbis paper investigates the sensitivity of meanvariance mv efficientportfolios to changes in the means of individual assets when only a budget constraint is imposed on the investment problem the analytical results indicate that an mv efficient portfolio s weights mean and variance can be extremely sensitive to cbanges in asset means when nonnegativity constraints are also imposed on the problem the computational results confirm that a positively weigbted mv efficient portfolio s weigbts are extremely sensitive to cbanges in asset means but the portfolio s returns are not a surprisingly small increase in the mean of just one asset drives balf the securities from the portfolio yet the portfolio s expected return and standard deviation are virtually uncbanged this paper supersedes should investors hold well diversified portfolios financial support from the natural science and engineering research council of canada is gratefully acknowledged we also acknowledge the most capable assistance of ruth cornale simon ng jean marc potier and frederick shen the paper was presented at simon fraser university and the western finance association meetings in san diego we thank the participants especially stephen brown john herzog john heaney ray koopman and bruce lehmann and the editors jon ingersoll and chester spatt for

search unemployment in an overlapping generations setting this paper constructs an overlapping generations model in which the steady state equilibrium is characterized by the existence of search unemployment this dynamic general equilibrium model captures the possible existence of search unemployment in the long run despite the absence of exogenous shocks furthermore it allows for the wage offers distribution to be determined endogenously the effect of partial revelation of information on the existence of search unemployment in the long run is examined it is shown that search unemployment may be eliminated in the long run despite the persistence of the state of imperfect information this paper develops an overlapping generations model in which the steady state equilibrium is characterized by search unemployment 2 unemployment is created via a rational rejection of available wage offers in favor of further search for potentially more attractive offers the proposed dynamic general equilibrium model allows for the existence of long run search unemployment despite the absence of exogenous shocks and permits the presence of an endogenously determined nondegenerate wage offer distribution 3 the paper analyzes the trade off between revelation of information and the level of search unemployment in the long run in the absence of external disturbances the level of search unemployment would be expected to decrease as information becomes available in particular if information is fully revealed search unemployment is naturally eliminated exploring the likelihood of the existence of long run search unemployment in a deterministic world this study provides an example of partial revelation of information which eliminates search unemployment in the long run despite the persistence of the state of imperfect information 4 the proposed model presents a discrete infinite time horizon world where economic activity is conducted under imperfect information in every period a single homogeneous good is produced using two factors capital and labor in the production process the aggregate endowment of labor is exogenously given in

accommodating diverse institutional investment objectives and constraints using non linear goal programming abstract institutional portfolio managers face a diverse mix of conflicting investment objectives and constraints such as risk and retum goals institutional liability considerations fund management legal restrictions institutional cash flow requirments and protfolio management performance targets this paper argues that lexicographic goal programming can be used to keep track of an institution s complex investment goals and will provide a best possible solution for the institution s portfolio selection problem three examples illustrate the applicability of non linear goal programming to institutions differing investment requirements

bayesian estimation of the global minimum variance portfolio in this paper we consider the estimation of the weights of optimal portfolios from the bayesian point of view under the assumption that the conditional distribution of the logarithmic returns is normal using the standard priors for the mean vector and the covariance matrix we derive the posterior distributions for the weights of the global minimum variance portfolio moreover we reparameterize the model to allow informative andnon informative priors directly for the weights of the global minimum variance portfolio the posterior distributions of the portfolio weights are derived in explicit form for almost all models the models are compared by using the coverage probabilities of credible intervals in an empirical study we analyze the posterior densities of the weights of an international portfolio

portfolio selection under strict uncertainty a multi criteria methodology and its application to the frankfurt and vienna stock exchanges abstract in modern portfolio theory it is common practice to first compute the risk reward efficient frontier and then to support an individual investor in selecting a portfolio that meets his her preferences for profitability and risk potential flaws include a the assumption that past data provide sufficient evidence for predicting the future performances of the securities under consideration and b the necessity to mathematically determine or approximate the investor s utility function in this paper we propose a methodology whose initial phase filters portfolios that are inefficient from a historical perspective while this is consistent with traditional approaches the second phase differs from the standard approach as it uses a decision table constructed by considering multiple scenarios assuming strict uncertainty the table cells measure consequences by a multi criteria linear performance index of simulated future returns which avoids difficulties with performance ratios the real world applicability is illustrated through two studies based on data from the stock exchanges in frankfurt and vienna

socially responsible investment a multicriteria approach to portfolio selection combining ethical and financial objectives abstract in a context of socially responsible investment sri this paper deals with portfolio selection for investors interested in ethical policies in the opportunity set there are ethical assets and other assets which are not characterized as ethical two goals are considered the traditional financial goal in the classical utility theory under uncertainty and an ethical goal in the same utility framework a new financial ethical bi criteria model is proposed with absolute risk aversion coefficients and targets depending on the investor s ethical profile this approach is relevant as an increasing number of mutual funds are becoming interested in sri strategies from the proposed model an actual case on green investment is developed concerning this case without generalizing to other contexts an analysis of the numerical results shows that efficient portfolios obtained by the traditional e v model outperform the strong green portfolios in terms of expected return and risk but this does not significantly occur with weak green investment

collaborative production planning of supply chain under price and demand uncertainty abstract this research is motivated by an automobile manufacturing supply chain network it involves a multi echelon production system with material supply component fabrication manufacturing and final product distribution activities we address the production planning issue by considering bill of materials and the trade offs between inventories production costs and customer service level due to its complexity an integrated solution framework which combines scatter evolutionary algorithm fuzzy programming and stochastic chance constrained programming are combined to jointly take up the issue we conduct a computational study to evaluate the model numerical results using the proposed algorithm confirm the advantage of the integrated planning approach compared with other solution methodologies the supply chain profits from the proposed approach consistently outperform in some cases up to 13 better the impacts of uncertainty in demand material price and other parameters on the performance of the supply chain are studied through sensitivity analysis we found the proposed model is effective in developing robust production plans under various market conditions

stochastic goal programming a mean variance approach abstract we propose a stochastic goal programming gp model leading to a structure of mean variance minimisation the solution to the stochastic problem is obtained from a linkage between the standard expected utility theory and a strictly linear weighted gp model under uncertainty the approach essentially consists in specifying the expected utility equation corresponding to every goal arrow s absolute risk aversion coefficients play their role in the calculation process once the model is defined and justified an illustrative example is developed

performance of portfolios optimized with estimation error we explain the poor out of sample performance of mean variance optimized portfolios developing theoretical bias adjustments for estimation risk by asymptotically expanding future returns of portfolios formed with estimated weights we provide closed form non bayesian adjustments of classical estimates of portfolio mean and standard deviation the adjustments significantly reduce bias in international equity portfolios increase economic gains and are robust to sample size and to nonnormality dominant terms grow linearly with the number of assets and decline inversely with the number of past time periods under suitable conditions sharpe ratio maximizing tangency portfolios become more diversified using these approximation methods it may be possible to assess before investing the effect of statistical estimation error on portfolio performance

allocation of tasks for reliability growth using multi attribute utility abstract in reliability growth models in particular and project risk management more generally improving the reliability of a system or product is limited by constraints on cost and time there are many possible tasks which can be carried out to identify and design out weaknesses in the system under development this paper considers the allocation problem which subset of tasks to undertake while the method is applicable to project risk management generally the work has been motivated by reliability growth programmes we utilise a model for reliability growth based on an efficacy matrix developed with engineering experts in the aerospace industry we develop a general multi attribute utility function based on targets for cost time on test and system reliability the optimal subset is identified by maximising the prior expected utility we derive conditions on the model parameters for risk aversion and loss aversion based on observed properties of preference we give conditions for multivariate risk aversion under the general form of the utility function the method is illustrated using an example informed by work with aerospace organisations

multiple criteria decision making combined with finance a categorized bibliographic study abstract this paper provides a categorized bibliography on the application of the techniques of multiple criteria decision making mcdm to problems and issues in finance a total of 265 references have been compiled and classified according to the methodological approaches of goal programming multiple objective programming the analytic hierarchy process etc and to the application areas of capital budgeting working capital management portfolio analysis etc the bibliography provides an overview of the literature on mcdm combined with finance shows how contributions to the area have come from all over the world facilitates access to the entirety of this heretofore fragmented literature and underscores the often multiple criterion nature of many problems in finance

using linear and goal programming to immunize bond portfolios abstract bierwag and khang s 1979 model of immunizing a portfolio of default free government bonds is expanded here to include default grade corporate bonds the immunizing equation is found to be slightly different both linear and goal programming are shown to be alternative techniques for identifying an investor s optimal immunizing portfolio

there is no silver bullet the value of diversification in planning invasive species surveillance abstract in this study we demonstrate how the notion of diversification can be used in broad scale resource allocation for surveillance of invasive species we consider the problem of short term surveillance for an invasive species in a geographical environment we find the optimal allocation of surveillance resources among multiple geographical subdivisions via application of a classical portfolio framework which allocates investments among multiple financial asset types with uncertain returns in a portfolio that maximizes the performance and by meeting the desired diversification targets protects against errors in estimating the portfolio s performance we illustrate the approach with a case study that applies a spatial transmission model to assess the risk of spread of the emerald ash borer eab a significant pest in north america with infested firewood that may be carried by visitors to campground facilities in central canada adding the diversification objective yields an expected survey performance that is comparable with undiversified optimal allocation but more importantly makes the geographical distribution of survey priorities less subject to possible errors in the spread rate estimates overall diversification of pest surveillance can be viewed as a viable short term strategy for hedging against uncertainty in expert and model based assessments of pest invasion risk

time preference and international labor migration abstract this paper analyzes the pattern and welfare implications of international labor migration within a dynamic general equilibrium model in a two country overlapping generations world labor migrates unilaterally from the high low to the low high time preference country if both countries under over invest relative to the golden rule bilateral migration a theoretical novelty occurs if the countries are on opposite sides of the golden rule steady state welfare analysis is conducted where in contrast to existing results unilateral migration immiserizes non migrants in the immigration country while making non migrants in the immigration country at least as well off bilateral migration may improve world welfare

decision support models for sustainable mining networks fundamentals and challenges abstract natural resource endowments have the potential of transforming the prospects of many developing economies however a nation s mineral resources can only generate prosperity if specific technology assets are employed in a way as to effectively develop its resource sector capture value from it and transform that value into long term benefits the roadmap to such an ambitious goal lies in effective management supported by consistent formal decision making methods yet integrating environmental and social goals into strategic tactical and operational decisions is a complex challenge often addressed without adequate analytical rigour we provide a systematic analysis of the literature devoted to the development and application of quantitative decision support methods with sustainability considerations in the mining industry by establishing a framework based on the fundamental elements inherent to decision making processes pertinent to mining operations we identify several opportunities for advancing research and practice in particular we find important gaps in elements such as project portfolio optimization operations and waste management and mine closure and rehabilitation and even more so when social targets and impacts are considered it is our belief that insights from this discussion could be of significant value to both academics and practitioners interested in promoting sustainable socio economic development throughout the mining industry

the economics of split ticket voting in representative democracies in u s elections voters often vote for candidates from different parties for president and congress voters also express dissatisfaction with the performance of congress as a whole and satisfaction with their own representative the authors develop a model of split ticket voting in which government spending is financed by uniform taxes the benefits from this spending are concentrated while the model generates split ticket voting overall spending is too high only if the president s powers are limited overall spending is too high in a parliamentary system the authors model can be used as the basis of an argument for term limits copyright 1997 by american economic association

60 years of portfolio optimization practical challenges and current trends abstract the concepts of portfolio optimization and diversification have been instrumental in the development and understanding of financial markets and financial decision making in light of the 60 year anniversary of harry markowitz s paper portfolio selection we review some of the approaches developed to address the challenges encountered when using portfolio optimization in practice including the inclusion of transaction costs portfolio management constraints and the sensitivity to the estimates of expected returns and covariances in addition we selectively highlight some of the new trends and developments in the area such as diversification methods risk parity portfolios the mixing of different sources of alpha and practical multi period portfolio optimization

do constraints improve portfolio performance the discrete time dynamic investment model using only historical data in various asset allocation settings often produces significant abnormal returns however the model does not choose the diversified portfolios that theory suggests it should therefore in this paper we compare the investment policies and returns of the model with and without constraints on the mix of risky assets the constraints lead to appreciably more diversification and less realized risk but only at the cost of less realized return visual comparisons of compound return standard deviation plots and statistical comparisons of jensen s alpha suggest that the reduction in return is not worth the reduction in risk for more risk averse investors ex post utility and certainty equivalent returns suggest that it is the results however illustrate the problems associated with using ex post utility to measure performance 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

a participatory budget model under uncertainty abstract participatory budgets are becoming increasingly popular in many municipalities all over the world the underlying idea is to allow citizens to participate in the allocation of a fraction of the municipal budget there are many variants of such processes however in most cases they assume a fixed budget based upon a maximum amount of money to be spent this approach seems lacking especially in times of crisis when public funding suffers high volatility and widespread cuts in this paper we propose a model for participatory budgeting under uncertainty based on stochastic programming

portfolio selection under distributional uncertainty a relative robust cvar approach robust optimization one of the most popular topics in the field of optimization and control since the late 1990s deals with an optimization problem involving uncertain parameters in this paper we consider the relative robust conditional value at risk portfolio selection problem where the underlying probability distribution of portfolio return is only known to belong to a certain set our approach not only takes into account the worst case scenarios of the uncertain distribution but also pays attention to the best possible decision with respect to each realization of the distribution we also illustrate how to construct a robust portfolio with multiple experts priors by solving a sequence of linear programs or a second order cone program

multiple criteria decision aiding for finance an updated bibliographic survey finance is a popular field for applied and methodological research involving multiple criteria decision aiding mcda techniques in this study we present an up to date bibliographic survey of the contributions of mcda in financial decision making focusing on the developments during the past decade the survey covers all main areas of financial modeling as well as the different methodological approaches in mcda and its connections with other analytical fields on the basis of the survey results we discuss the contributions of mcda in different areas of financial decision making and identify established and emerging research topics as well as future opportunities and challenges

optimal policy in the presence of licensed technology from abroad this paper extends the theory of international trade to analyze optimal commercial policy of a country importing technology for which royalties must be paid to foreigners as the analysis shows the country can maximize national welfare by combining a tax on international trade in commodities and a domestic commodity market tax or subsidy depending respectively on whether foreigners are net exporters or importers of the commodity whose technology is licensed internationally the analysis also demonstrates that the maximum level of national welfare might be lower with than without technological imports if the country s exportable commodity uses the foreign technology

the case for a new fiscal constitution for the first 140 years of u s history the federal budget was effectively constrained by two fiscal rules the formal limits within the constitution on the enumerated spending powers and an informal rule that the government could borrow only during recessions and wars at the end of the 1920s federal expenditures were 2 6 percent of gnp the federal debt was constrained to about equal to 16 percent of gnp the general price level was roughly stable over this long period over the past six decades however federal expenditures have increased to nearly 25 percent of gnp larger and more frequent budget deficits have increased the federal debt held by the public to an amount equal to about 50 percent of gnp and the general price level is now about nine times the level at the beginning of this period this dramatic change in fiscal and monetary conditions occurred without one amendment to the constitution to authorize a change in the fiscal rules our effective fiscal constitution has been transformed into one in which congress and the president may authorize any type or amount of expenditures and taxes subject only to the voting rules for routine legislation how did this happen should economists be concerned about this change in the fiscal constitution what if anything should be done about it

the long run implications of a hicks neutral technical progress this paper analyzes the steady state welfare implications of a hicks neutral technological progress or alternatively of an i nternational transfer of a hicks neutral superior technology within a n overlapping generations framework the analysis indicates that prod ucers will be induced by profit motives to adopt the advanced technol ogy although its effect on factor prices and intertemporal consumptio n may reduce steady state welfare morever it is shown that in contr ast to the static results a hicks neutral technical progress alters the long run factor price ratio through the effect on capital formati on copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

how many stocks make a diversified portfolio we show that a well diversified portfolio of randomly chosen stocks must include at least 30 stocks for a borrowing investor and 40 stocks for a lending investor this contradicts the widely accepted notion that the benefits of diversification are virtually exhausted when a portfolio contains approximately 10 stocks we also contrast our result with the levels of diversification found in studies of individuals portfolios

active portfolio management with benchmarking adding a value at risk constraint abstract we examine the impact of adding a value at risk var constraint to the problem of an active manager who seeks to outperform a benchmark while minimizing tracking error variance tev by using the model of roll 1992 a mean variance analysis of tracking error journal of portfolio management 18 13 22 we obtain three main results first portfolios on the constrained mean tev boundary still exhibit three fund separation but the weights of the three funds when the constraint binds differ from those in roll s model second the constraint mitigates the problem that when an active manager seeks to outperform a benchmark using the mean tev model he or she selects an inefficient portfolio finally when short sales are disallowed the extent to which the constraint reduces the optimal portfolio s efficiency loss can still be notable but is smaller than when short sales are allowed

general uncertainty in portfolio selection a case based decision approach abstract often a portfolio investor can hardly imagine all states of nature relevant to his investment problem causing general uncertainty concerning an asset allocation model we quantify general uncertainty as the weakness of an investor s belief in a conventional portfolio procedure then we develop the case based decision making approach for determining the optimal belief degree the economic effect of the proposed case based methodology is investigated in the empirical study the empirical results suggest two successful patterns of case based decisions that could be linked to the issue of market efficiency moreover our case based modeling reflects some behavioral phenomena observed on financial markets

skewness persistence with optimal portfolio selection abstract existing studies have found that ex post stock returns are positively skewed but such skewness is only persistent for individual stocks not for portfolios this implies that the ex post knowledge of skewness may not be useful in ex ante portfolio selection however the portfolios in these studies are not optimally formed because preferences for skewness are not taken into consideration when forming these portfolios it is more meaningful to see if the positive skewness would persist in optimally formed mean variance skewness efficient portfolios using stocks from both japanese and us markets and a bootstrap method we find that the portfolios optimally formed by using a polynomial goal programming method which considers preference for skewness greatly enhances skewness persistence over time our results are robust across both japanese and us stocks however the skewness persistence is stronger for portfolios formed with monthly data than that with weekly data these findings have practical implications to investors with skewness preferences

safety first portfolio choice based on financial and sustainability returns the aim of this paper is to expand the methodological spectrum of socially responsible investing by introducing stochastic sustainability returns into safety first models for portfolio choice we provide a foundation of the notion of sustainability in portfolio theory and establish a general model for generalized safety first portfolio management with probabilistic constraints and three specifications of it moreover we prove theorems about conditions for unique optimal solutions and for the constraints of one model being more restrictive than those of another in an empirical part we calculate the costs of investing according to our approach in terms of less financial return

do the personal characteristics of finance ministers affect changes in public debt using a unique dataset of the personal characteristics of national finance ministers in western europe 1980 2010 i show that a finance minister s experience affects the national debt to gdp ratio the increase in the debt to gdp ratio is smaller if the finance minister stays in office for an additional year this result is robust to the inclusion of the personal characteristics of prime ministers and a measure of political stability however the magnitude of the effect is sensitive to how finance ministers are selected in the econometric model when more than one minister holds office during a particular year the estimation of interaction terms further reveals that experience particularly matters in election years or in times of negative gdp growth because an experienced finance minister has the power to restrict the usual increase in the debt to gdp ratio in contrast a finance minister s educational background and ideological leaning have no significant impact on the debt to gdp ratio

stochastic dominance and expected utility survey and analysis while stochastic dominance has been employed in various forms as early as 1932 it has only been since 1969 1970 that the notion has been developed and extensively employed in the area of economics finance agriculture statistics marketing and operations research in this survey the first second and third order stochastic dominance rules are discussed with an emphasis on the development in the area since the 1980s

tri criterion modeling for constructing more sustainable mutual funds one of the most important factors shaping world outcomes is where investment dollars are placed in this regard there is the rapidly growing area called sustainable investing where environmental social and corporate governance esg measures are taken into account with people interested in this type of investing rarely able to gain exposure to the area other than through a mutual fund we study a cross section of u s mutual funds to assess the extent to which esg measures are embedded in their portfolios our methodology makes heavy use of points on the nondominated surfaces of many tri criterion portfolio selection problems in which sustainability is modeled after risk and return as a third criterion with the mutual funds acting as a filter the question is how effective is the sustainable mutual fund industry in carrying out its charge our findings are that the industry has substantial leeway to increase the sustainability quotients of its portfolios at even no cost to risk and return thus implying that the funds are unnecessarily falling short on the reasons why investors are investing in these funds in the first place

interactive decision system in stochastic multiobjective portfolio selection abstract some investors pursuing a high return at the relatively high risk of losing a part of their money do not always select a preferred portfolio from among the so called mean variance efficient frontier provided by markowitz 1959 portfolio selection wiley new york chue and nagasawa 1996 an investor modeling and interactive method in multiobjective portfolio selection proceedings of the pacific conference on manufacturing 96 constructed their own investor model based on an risk permission maximum return portfolio and proposed an interactive portfolio selection system for selecting a preferred portfolio from the set of candidate portfolios this paper extends the system to the case when the mean and the variance of return of securities have several scenarios with known occurrence probabilities

budgetary devices for curbing spending prone ministers and bureaucrats in this paper i study asimple game of the budgetary process thegame has three players a spending proneminister who proposes a budget a primeminister who accepts or vetoes and abureaucrat who provides non verifiableinformation about policy the bureaucratis appointed by the spending minister ishow that in this setting public spendingis excessive this result stems from theproposal power of the minister and hisincentive to appoint a spending pronebureaucrat next i examine two devices forcontrolling public spending binding budgettargets imposed by the prime minister anddelegating veto power to a spending aversefinance minister it is shown that thelatter device is more effective than theformer device to curb a spending proneminister because it not only reduces theproposal power of the spending minister but also induces him to appoint lessspending prone bureaucrats

learning and signalling by advisor selection in this paper we consider a model where a policy maker uses advice in order to 1 obtain information about the consequences of an innovation information motive and 2 to support political legitimacy of her decision persuasion motive we conduct our analysis in the context of a cheap talk game with three players 1 a policy maker 2 the median voter in parliament or of the electorate and 3 an advisor the advisor has private information about the consequences of policy communication between an advisor and a recipient improves as their preferences are closer aligned if the preferences of the policy maker and the median voter are different the policy maker faces a trade off on the one hand she wants to gain information to judge whether the innovation is worthwhile on the other hand she needs to convince the median voter whether the innovation is desirable

keynes meets markowitz the trade off between familiarity and diversification we develop a model of portfolio choice to nest the views of keynes who advocates concentration in a few familiar assets and markowitz who advocates diversification we use the concepts of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion to formalize the idea of an investor s familiarity toward assets the model shows that for any given level of expected returns the optimal portfolio depends on two quantities relative ambiguity across assets and the standard deviation of the expected return estimate for each asset if both quantities are low then the optimal portfolio consists of a mix of familiar and unfamiliar assets moreover an increase in correlation between assets causes an investor to increase concentration in familiar assets flight to familiarity alternatively if both quantities are high then the optimal portfolio contains only the familiar asset s as keynes would have advocated in the extreme case in which both quantities are very high no risky asset is held nonparticipation this paper was accepted by brad barber teck ho and terrance odean special issue editors

impact of liquidity risk on variations in efficiency and productivity a panel gamma simulated maximum likelihood estimation abstract the objective of this study is to assess the importance of short and long run liquidity or debt risk on technical inefficiency and productivity an alternative panel estimator of normal gamma stochastic frontier model is proposed using a simulated maximum likelihood estimation technique empirical estimates indicate a difference in the parameter coefficients of gamma stochastic production function and heterogeneity function variables between the pooled and the swamy arora panel models the results from this study show short and long run risk or variations in liquidity or debt servicing ratio play an important role in explaining the variance in efficiency and productivity

a simple approach to arbitrage pricing theory the following sections are included introductionarbitrage pricingdiscussionreferencesdiscussion notes on the arbitrage pricing theorypure arbitrage pricing theoryapproximate arbitrage and the aptapproximate factor modelsthe competitive equilibrium version of the aptconclusionnotereferences this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

portfolio rebalancing model with transaction costs based on fuzzy decision theory the fuzzy set is one of the powerful tools used to describe an uncertain environment as well as quantifying any potential return and risk portfolio liquidity is taken into account and a linear programming model for portfolio rebalancing with transaction costs is proposed the level of return that an investor might aspire to the risk and the liquidity of portfolio are vague in an uncertain financial environment considering them as fuzzy numbers we propose a portfolio rebalancing model with transaction costs based on fuzzy decision theory an example is given to illustrate the behavior of the proposed model using real data from the shanghai stock exchange

an analytic derivation of admissible efficient frontier with borrowing the admissible efficient portfolio selection problem for risky assets has been discussed by zhang and nie in this paper the admissible efficient portfolio model is proposed under the assumption that there exists the borrowing money or a risk free asset case the admissible efficient frontiers are developed by the spreads of expected return and risk from admissible errors the analytic forms of the admissible efficient frontiers when short sales are not allowed on all risky assets are derived from two cases the borrowing with an upper bound constraint or without an upper bound constraint the influence on the admissible efficient frontier is explained under the different interest rates of the borrowing the differences between the results with the borrowing and the results without the borrowing is revealed by a real numerical example

selection of socially responsible portfolios using hedonic prices this research presents a novel framework for selecting socially responsible investment sri portfolios the hedonic price method hpm is applied to obtain an evaluation of sri criteria that is integrated into a multi objective mathematical programming model this approach allows us to obtain a portfolio whose financial performance is similar to which the investor would have reached if he or she had not taken into account social ethical and environmental see characteristics when making his or her investment decisions this methodology is applied to portfolios composed of socially responsible and conventional mutual funds domiciled in spain

capital asset pricing compatible with observed market value weights we show that the set of expected return vectors for which an observed portfolio is mean variance mv efficient is a two parameter family we identify ten ways to specify the time series behavior of the two parameters the result highlights a number of inconsistencies involved in mv modelling for each of the cases it permits the inference of the time series of expected return vectors as well as all the other capital asset pticing model capm variables compatible with a known covariance matrix and the observed time series of market value weights the empirical work shows that there are substantial case to case differences in the time series of mean vectors and many of them are quite different from the constant mean vector envisioned in tests of

improving diversification opportunities for socially responsible investors socially responsible investment sri has grown enormously and has expanded globally in recent years it allows sri investors to reduce their portfolio risk assumptions through international diversification in this context the aim of this paper is twofold i to examine price and volatility linkages among the most representative sri indexes for north america europe and asia pacific employing a multivariate approach and ii to provide the out of sample performance of an optimal portfolio constructed on the basis of time varying return and volatility forecasts from this specification approach our overall results show that using this technique it is possible to reduce risk and out perform the naive rule which is usually employed in this type of investment these findings are relevant not only for academics but also for practitioners especially for professional managers of sri portfolios

tri criterion inverse portfolio optimization with application to socially responsible mutual funds we present a framework for inverse optimization in a markowitz portfolio model that is extended to include a third criterion the third criterion causes the traditional nondominated frontier to become a surface until recently it had not been possible to compute such a surface but by using a new method that is able to generate the nondominated surfaces of tri criterion portfolio selection problems we are able to compute via inverse optimization the implied risk tolerances of given funds that pursue an additional objective beyond risk and return in applying this capability to a broad sample of conventional and socially responsible sr mutual funds we find that after the screening process there appears to be no significant di erence between how assets are allocated in socially responsible and conventional mutual funds which is likely to be di erent from what most sr investors would expect

value of information in portfolio selection with a taiwan stock market application illustration abstract despite many proposed alternatives the predominant model in portfolio selection is still mean variance however the main weakness of the mean variance model is in the specification of the expected returns of the individual securities involved if this process is not accurate the allocations of capital to the different securities will in almost all certainty be incorrect if however this process can be made accurate then correct allocations can be made and the additional expected return following from this is the value of information this paper thus proposes a methodology to calculate the value of information a related idea of a level of disappointment is also shown how value of information calculations can be important in helping a mutual fund settle on how much to set aside for research is discussed in reference to a taiwan stock exchange illustrative application in which the value of information appears to be substantial heavy use is made of parametric quadratic programming to keep computation times down for the methodology

approximate portfolio analysis abstract this paper presents a portfolio selection model based on the idea of approximation the model describes a portfolio by its decumulative distribution curve and a preference structure by a family of convex indifference curves it prescribes the optimal portfolio as the one whose decumulative curve has the highest tangent indifference curve the model extends the mean variance model in the sense that it does not restrict the return distributions of assets to be normal while under the assumption of normality the model simplifies to the mean variance model the model has a measure of risk attitudes that resembles the arrow pratt measure while combining both wealth and probability attitudes using this measure we show that the smaller the curvature of a value function and the larger the curvature of a weighting function the more risk averse an agent

cheap talk with two audiences these problems have in common a simple structure an informed sender says something to two interested but uninformed receivers who then take actions based on their beliefs these actions affect the sender as well as the receivers in this paper we study how costless nonverifiable claims cheap talk can affect these beliefs and hence the actions and how the incentives for truthful revelation to one receiver are affected by the presence of the other we then ask how welfare is affected by whether claims are made in public or in private as some of the above examples suggest public messages may be more credible than private messages addressed to either audience one possibility is that the presence of one audience can discipline the sender s relationship with the other we call this one sided

portfolio selection and skewness evidence from international stock markets abstract this paper finds that the returns of the world s 14 major stock markets are not normally distributed and that the correlation matrix of these stock markets was stable during the january 1988 december 1993 time period polynomial goal programming in which investor preferences for skewness can be incorporated is utilized to determine the optimal portfolio consisting of the choices of 14 international stock indexes the empirical findings suggest that the incorporation of skewness into an investor s portfolio decision causes a major change in the construction of the optimal portfolio the evidence also indicate that investors trade expected return of the portfolio for skewness

comonotonic approximation to periodic investment problems under stochastic drift abstract we investigate periodic investment problems under a black scholes market with stochastic drift the decision maker invests a series of positive amounts at finitely predetermined time spots to maximize the expected terminal wealth while controlling its downside risk as measured by the condition value at risk cvar it turns out that the increment for unit wealth on the whole path can be divided into two parts the increment corresponding to the stochastic drift and that corresponding to the brownian motion a comonotonic approximation is proposed for the second part and an upper bound is provided for the cvar of the first part which construct together a closed form approximation of the terminal wealth under the risk measure of cvar we further decompose the problem into a sequence of sub problems whose optimal solutions are explicit and follow fractional kelly strategy numerical and empirical results illustrate the performance of our methodology

more possessions more worry abstract a common wisdom asserts that the wider the universe of assets to choose from the greater the investor s welfare we show that this is not the case in practice where parameters have to be estimated even when the estimates are unbiased surprisingly risk aversion plays a crucial role corresponding to the desirability of asset expansion by dividing investors in three groups investors with very low risk tolerance and investors with very high risk tolerance are better off with asset expansion and investors with moderate risk tolerance are worse off despite the option to refrain from investing in the additional asset

grading the performance of market indicators with utility benchmarks selected from footsie a 2000 case study the suitable choice of a benchmark portfolio is a critical problem prior to using the information ratio as the performance ranking of funds depends on this choice in this paper a method to optimize benchmark selection taking account of the investor s preferences is proposed and applied to a case study of performance for 29 market indicators on stock exchanges throughout the world the method that relies on recent results in optimization theory requires defining the opportunity set to select the benchmarks this set being footsie in the case study the computational process and numerical results are presented through tables and figures the accuracy of the method being also numerically tested

selecting a portfolio with skewness recent evidence from us european and latin american equity markets abstract polynomial goal programming in which investor preferences for skewness can be incorporated is utilized to determine the optimal portfolio from latin american us and european capital markets the empirical findings suggest that the incorporation of skewness into an investor s portfolio decision causes a major change in the resultant optimal portfolio the empirical evidence indicates that investors do trade expected return of the portfolio for skewness

asset allocation with correlation a composite trade off abstract we assess the ability of minimum variance portfolio allocation strategies accounting for time varying correlation between assets to provide performance benefits relative to an equally weighted portfolio prior to transaction costs correlation based strategies emphatically outperform the equally weighted benchmark this finding is strongest for short horizon correlation forecasts and attributed to dynamic correlation as opposed to variance forecasts thus estimation error is not found to be the primary obstacle to successful portfolio optimization rather frequent rebalancing and associated transaction costs pose a significant challenge limiting portfolio turnover through short selling restrictions and greater rebalancing error tolerance results in regular outperformance of the correlation based strategies even for large transaction costs taken together these findings provide evidence of a trade off between optimal portfolio performance forecasting horizon rebalancing frequency and transaction costs