exchange rate pass through in two period duopoly abstract this paper analyzes the issue of exchange rate pass through in a two period model of duopolistic competition with differentiated products and constant marginal costs conditions on import demand elasticities for normal and perverse pass through respectively are derived for the case of perfect and imperfect capital mobility in an example with linear demand it is additionally shown that temporary exchange rate fluctuations cause current as well as future price changes which do not necessarily point in the same direction this model reproduces features of the macroeconomic j curve at a microeconomic level

the effect of the sloping land conversion programme on farm household productivity in rural china abstractthe objective of this paper is to examine the treatment effect on farm household productivity induced by the sloping land conversion program using large balanced household level data from five provinces during 1996 2010 this study shows that the slcp significantly improved the productivity of participants during the first round of funding of the programme until 2008 while the effects decreased gradually in the second round with most years not showing significant differences moreover it is found that there are heterogeneous effects on farm household productivity between the south and north as well as between poor and rich regions

secondary forests as temporary carbon sinks the economic impact of accounting methods on reforestation projects in the tropics abstract tropical forestry is often not competitive with agricultural land uses such as pasture for cattle ranching additional revenues from carbon sequestration generated by the clean development mechanism cdm of the kyoto protocol can change this situation in three different zones of north western ecuador minimum compensation payments for carbon sequestration were determined which would make reforestation a feasible land use alternative based on our findings that these minimum prices depend on the net benefit of the respective land use alternatives and on the accounting regimes for cdm sink projects we applied the accounting rules for temporary and long term certified emission reductions cer to two reforestation projects forest plantation and natural regrowth of secondary forest a comparison of these alternatives showed that secondary forest is an attractive alternative under both accounting regimes because of its low establishment costs and relative early timber revenues after identifying the zone most suitable for carbon sink projects we calculated net benefits of land use changes in the event that certain prices for emission reductions were actually paid we found that secondary forest becomes economically attractive if the price of permanent credits is above 4 5 tco 2 whereas forest plantations require permanent cer prices of 7 0 tco 2 in both cases the results are within the price margins forecasted by various institutions for the first commitment period of the kyoto protocol the presented methodology is meant to support the decision making process on the supply side of a future cer market opportunity costs of land use changes have to be analyzed carefully before deciding in favor of long binding forestry projects assigning temporary credits to naturally regrown secondary forests could although excluded from cdm during the first commitment period combine the advantages of a flexible accounting regime with the positive economic and ecological effects of this competitive land use

nonfarm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural africa concepts dynamics and policy implications abstract asset activity and income diversification lie at the heart of livelihood strategies in rural africa this paper introduces a special issue on the topic income diversification and livelihoods in rural africa cause and consequence of change we concentrate on core conceptual issues that bedevil the literature on rural income diversification and the policy implications of the empirical evidence presented in this special issue

china s sloping land conversion program does expansion equal success this paper uses a 2003 household survey to examine implementation and impacts of china s sloping land conversion program we find that land targeting has been strongly influenced by program goals but that mistargeting also occurred using a treatment effects approach to evaluate program impact we find evidence of positive impact on cropping husbandry and total income though the results are not robust enough to support government claims of huge gains we also find evidence that lack of participant choice could be dampening program impacts and that allowing households autonomy could lead to improvement in program cost effectiveness and outcomes

trends in the development of ecological economics from the late 1980s to the early 2000s abstract as the contributions to ecological economics are very diverse recent years have seen some discussion on both how to delimit the field and in which direction it should develop the intention with this paper is to contribute to the discussion by outlining important trends in the development of the field from the late 1980s to the early 2000s the study is inspired by other studies in the sociology and history of science in particular by the theoretical framework regarding scientific fields as reputational organizations which draws attention to both cognitive and social aspects of the formation of a field the basis for the paper is a combination of literature studies interviews with key researchers in the field and participant observations the paper outlines the characteristic cognitive features of ecological economics at the time of the birth of the field it is then described how the development in ecological economics was influenced by broader social factors during the following years and how the field was shaped by the inflow and outflow of different groups of researchers the emergence of different research programmes is outlined as is the organizational development finally the characteristics of ecological economics are summarized and the future prospects are briefly assessed

product value as a determinant of opec s official crude oil prices additional evidence the rate of imitation of a capital embodied process innovation economica 44 feb 1977 63 69 sahal devendra patterns of technological innovation reading ma addison wesley 1981 saxonhouse gary r estimated parameters as dependent variables american economic review 66 mar 1976 178 183 theil henri on the estimation of relationships involving qualitative variables american journal of sociology 76 july 1970 103 154 principles of econometrics new york wiley sons 1971 walker david an analysis of financial and structural characteristics of banks with retail eft machines working paper 79 1 fdic 1979

fertilizer adoption by smallholders in the brazilian amazon farm level evidence multiple constraints prevent smallholders from adopting fertilizers even with regional supply of agricultural inputs expanding and soils being weared out using comprehensive farm level data from the eastern brazilian amazon we found that market proximity had a significant positive correlation with fertilizer adoption even after controlling for liquidity land tenure education experience and access to rural extension services nevertheless few smallholders completely replaced nutrients from vegetation with fertilizers instead we found that a hybrid system that combines nutrients from vegetation and fertilizers was approximately twice as common as exclusive fertilizer use we suggest that the option for this diversified nutrient portfolio may result not only from a lack of capital or knowledge regarding return on fertilizer use but also from the need to adapt to the economic constraints facing smallholders and minimize risk results indicate that a rural extension program aimed at supporting a rapid and complete replacement of ashes from vegetation by fertilizers could prove unsuccessful for amazonian smallholders

costs and benefits of livestock systems and the role of market and nonmarket relationships in developing countries livestock are kept not only for their physical products but also for insurance financing and to display status though this range of purposes is acknowledged livestock policies nevertheless often emphasize physical production a limited perspective that hampers the formulation and implementation of effective livestock policies this article presents a comprehensive appraisal of costs and benefits of livestock systems that takes into account the institutional environment of livestock keepers indicators are developed that capture quantify and organize not only the benefits resulting from the physical production but also those from the intangible functions the method is illustrated by an analysis of cattle in the western province of zambia the results indicate that the perspective on livestock systems developed more closely reflects the observed decisions of the livestock keepers

are prices too sticky nominal price rigidity has a negative externality rigidity in one firm s price increases the variability of aggregate real spending which harms all firms this paper investigates whether this externality is large which would imply that stabilization policy can be highly beneficial even if the costs of making prices flexible are small there are three conclusions first both the private cost of price rigidity and the externality are second order in the size of fluctuations second the externality can nonetheless be arbitrarily large third in a simple model the externality is small for plausible parameter values

china s sloping land conversion program institutional innovation or business as usual abstract china s sloping land conversion program slcp is the largest land retirement reforestation program in the developing world having the goal of converting 14 67 million hectares of cropland to forests by 2010 4 4 million of which is on land with slopes greater than 25 and an additional soft goal of afforesting a roughly equal area of wasteland by 2010 pending successful completion it could represent a 10 20 increase in china s national forest area and a 10 decrease in current cultivated area in contrast to china s other forest sector policies slcp uses a public payment scheme that directly engages millions of rural households as core agents of project implementation and has the stated principals of volunteerism thus insofar as current or future de facto program implementation involves decentralized voluntary grassroots participation slcp represents an important departure from business as usual in how china manages its forest resources this work draws upon current available research of the program and uses a 2003 household and village level survey conducted by the center for chinese agricultural policy cas to examine program design implementation and outcomes to date results indicate that significant problems in design and implementation exist with these including shortfalls in subsidies delivered lack of respect of the principals of volunteerism and insufficient technical support and budgeting for local implementation costs more fundamentally some program goals appear to be based on common misperceptions regarding the linkages between forests and watershed services overall slcp contains both innovative elements volunteerism and the direct engagement of farmers as well as components that hark back to policies and mindsets of decades past the program s top down simplified contract structure lack of sufficient consultation with local communities and rural households and campaign style mobilization the paper concludes by providing four main suggestions to improve the program 1 increase local community input in design and implementation and ensure that households have full autonomy in participation choice 2 improve technical support and budgeting for local administrative costs and capacity building 3 clarify the environmental services targeted and verify the measures needed to acquire these services and 4 integrate slcp into an overall package of complementary policies aimed at the rural sector

the empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude oil price formation this paper adopts a novel empirical approach to the crude oil price formation for the purpose of understanding the price reactions of opec member countries to changes in the exchange rate of the us dollar against other major currencies and prices of other members the results are broadly consistent with the view of the absence of a unified opec determined price in the international crude market literature in addition the results also highlight a cross regional dimension of the crude oil market

rural nonfarm incomes in nicaragua abstract this paper examines nonfarm incomes of rural nicaraguan households using a nationwide survey lsms from 1998 the key findings are as follows a rural nonfarm income rnfi constitutes 41 of rural household incomes b rnfi is much more important than farm wage labor income c rnfi tends to be relatively concentrated geographically and socioeconomically toward the rural areas of the managua zone and the rest of pacific zone which are denser in infrastructure and population and toward the upper income quartile of rural households this concentration implies high entry barriers and capital requirements for rural nonfarm activity that the poor are simply not equipped to overcome equipping the rural poor through training and acquisition of diverse forms of capital to have a chance at the higher return nonfarm jobs would be a major step toward helping them to share the benefits of the rural nonfarm economy d self employment small enterprise income in manufactures is very minor probably due to the ease of obtaining manufactured goods from urban industries and imports wage employment constitutes the bulk of rnfi despite it receiving little attention in development programs and debate e three quarters of rnfi is in the service sector and only one quarter is from manufactures that can be contrasted with the emphasis on small manufactures enterprises in rural development programs and research f education road access as well as access to electricity and water were found to be important to nonfarm incomes

conservation payments liquidity constraints and off farm labor impact of the grain for green program on rural households in china this study evaluates the labor response of rural households participating in the grain for green program in china the largest payments for ecosystem services program in the developing world using a panel data set that we designed and implemented we find that the participating households are increasingly shifting their labor endowment from on farm work to the off farm labor market however the effects vary depending on the initial level of human and physical capital the results support the view that one reason why the participants are more likely to find off farm employment is because the program is relaxing households liquidity constraints

peasant household behaviour with missing markets some paradoxes explained a model of peasant household behavior under varying degrees of household specific food and labor market failures is constructed to show that these structural features can explain several well known patterns of peasant response which have often been attributed to peculiar motives presumed specific to peasants the model explains sluggish response to cash crops prices and high instability in perceived food and labor scarcities the key role of manufactured consumer goods prices in stimulating peasants effort in cash crops production the effectiveness of taxation as opposed to incentives in stimulating cash crops production and the key role of technological change in food production to enhance cash crop production results are obtained analytically in the case of one market failure and by numerical simulation with more than one

the determination of oil prices 1945 1995 the paper provides a theoretical framework to explain the determination of international oil prices based upon the interaction of supply and demand curves the analysis of components of the framework identifies important characteristics of the global market for crude oil the paper applies the framework to the oil market from 1945 in particular it incorporates key changes in the market to enhance understanding of how the market has been and is working finally the framework is used to explain why oil prices have become more volatile and what issues and questions arise from current oil market behaviour

economics for sustainable rural systems abstract critics often reproach the discipline of economics for supporting developments that result in environmental and social degradation this article identifies where such censure is valid but proceeds to argue that the rationale underlying economic techniques is at fault rather than the techniques themselves within the rural context we suggest that economics can make a valuable contribution to the design and achievement of sustainable ways of living valid criticism of economics focuses on its assumptions about value since this has led to emphasis of favourable effects of markets and laissez faire policies exposing rural areas to more rigorously competitive market conditions encourage their transformation by increasing mechanisation industrialisation and a less sustainable use of resources new approaches and policies are required if different outcomes are to be achieved an initial step is to identify desirable outcomes a matter of social choice however society makes multiple demands on rural resources and such issues cannot be adequately captured within a neo classical welfare model an alternative hierarchical framework in the tradition of systems thinking capable of analysing the complex relations associated with rural resource use provides appropriate emphasis to the economic links between goals at different levels within the system and appears to have some heuristic value an empirical counterpart of the hierarchical framework input output analysis generates information to support social choices and can also contribute to the understanding of economic systems and their interaction with the wider social cultural ethical and environmental universe the article concludes with some revised economic policy prescriptions to promote rural sustainability

oil and international energy this article focuses on issues surrounding international oil markets within the wider context of international energy the global economy and conflicting agendas such as energy security and climate change it is suggested that important aspects of the current situation appear unsustainable increasing uncertainty and raising methodological difficulties for any assessment of likely future developments it is argued that the dynamics of oil prices during the 2002 9 cycle reflected great uncertainty about future fundamentals as well as the absence of previously anticipated stabilizing feedbacks from supply from demand or from policy it is suggested that damaging oil price swings could be moderated by better policy though probably not by financial regulation in the longer term the uncertainties remain very great especially since the tensions between a realist view of likely energy market developments and the imperatives of the climate change agenda remain unresolved a wide range of policies in producer and consumer countries are likely to affect not only oil prices but also the contentious issue of the distribution of rents within the industry copyright 2011 oxford university press

opec and cheating revisiting the kinked demand curve abstract given a formal or tacit group agreement by an oligopoly such as opec it is still necessary to understand what pricing and output decisions individual members actually make the well known kinked demand curve model of oligopoly behaviour is useful in this regarg the model is usually applied to a price and market share fixing oligopoly in a deterministic world with appropriate modifications it can be applied to opec as a price fixing cartel with varying degrees of cohesion from 1973 1986 and as a quantity fixing cartel since 1986 operating in an uncertain world

the sloping land conversion program in china effect on the livelihood diversification of rural households summary through addressing the motivations behind rural households livelihood diversification this paper examines the effect of the sloping land conversion program slcp on livelihood diversification using a longitudinal household survey data set spanning the overall implementation of the slcp our results show that the slcp works as a valid external policy intervention to increase rural livelihood diversification in addition the findings demonstrate that the implementation of the slcp has had heterogeneous effects on livelihood diversification across different rural income groups the lower income group was more affected by the program in terms of income diversification

an analysis of factors affecting price volatility of the us oil market abstract this paper studies the price volatility of the crude oil market by examining the market structure of opec the stable and unstable demand structure and related elasticity of demand in particular the impacts of prosperity and recession of the world economy and the resulting demand shift on crude oil price are investigated the error correction model is used to estimate the demand relations and related elasticity the income effect on demand functions is evaluated to shed light on future prices a simulation of potential oil prices under different scenarios on a cut of one million barrels per day by opec is evaluated from our simulation given the 4 cut in opec production the oil price is expected to increase unless the recession is severe the magnitude and scope of a price hike would be diminished if non opec or domestic production were greatly expanded

oil supply disruptions and modelling methodologies the role of lp models abstract this paper has three main objectives first an argument is made that oil vulnerability is not a problem of the past but remains a significant concern for all oil consuming countries especially beyond 1990 second it is suggested that the severity of past disruptions can be attributed in part to physical and institutional constraints that prevented the oil market from reacting quickly to what were relatively minor supply disruptions the currently changing structure of the world oil market in particular the evolving sales agreements under which an increasing percentage of world oil is traded and the vertical integration of major opec members into areas such as refining could decrease the ability of the market to adjust to future disruptions third it is suggested that linear programming lp models offer unique capabilities in assessing the degree to which the world and domestic oil markets could adjust to short term supply disruptions given constraints on transport trade and refining possibilities imposed by the physical structures of those market sectors or by control of those sectors by increasingly powerful producing countries the assessment of this flexibility will help pinpoint areas needing attention and also contribute indirectly to the evaluation of short run demand elasticities for world oil the us department of energy s petroleum allocation pal model is used as an example of one lp model that can address such issues

determinants of income diversification amongst rural households in southern mali abstract household level panel data from a representative sample of rural households in southern mali describing the different sources of household income are used to examine the determinants of income diversification a conditional fixed effects logit model is employed in the analysis to control for household specific effects we find evidence that poorer households have fewer opportunities in non cropping activities such as livestock rearing and non farm work and hence less diversified incomes this appears to reflect their relative lack of capital which makes it difficult for them to diversify away from subsistence agriculture the results also indicate that households in remote areas are less likely to participate in the non cropping sector than their counterparts closer to local markets while households with educated heads are more likely to participate in the non farm sector than those with illiterate heads the significance of entry constraints in explaining portfolio diversification suggests that the role of government in making assets as well as improved infrastructure available to poorer households is still essential in promoting income diversification

opec behavior a test of alternative hypotheses since interpretations of past and future oil price patterns depends on the model chosen the author tests and compares alternative theories of opec as a first step in validating the choice on any one model the results show that among opec countries the partial market sharing cartel model is the only model not rejected by at least some of the 11 members and gives the best explanation of production in comparison with 11 non opec countries the competitive model could not be rejected for 10 of the 11 non opec producers this raises the question of why if opec is a cartel friedman s predictions have not come true and introduces new questions for future research 19 references 3 tables

exchange rates and traded goods prices abstract this paper presents a partial equilibrium model of the determination of domestic and export prices by a monopolistic competitive firm the model stresses the role of exchange rate uncertainty and expectations the most important result of the analysis is that the stochastic properties of deviations from the law of one price are crucially affected by the currency of denomination of export prices using data on domestic and dollar export prices of japanese goods i find that deviations from the law of one price are due to exchange rate surprises but also to price staggering and ex ante price discrimination

the effects of china s sloping land conversion program on agricultural households in the late 1990s china aimed to mitigate environmental degradation from agricultural production activities by introducing the world s largest payments for environmental services pes program the sloping land conversion program slcp in order to analyze its effects on agricultural households we develop a microeconomic agricultural household model ahm which can model the production consumption and non farm labor supply decisions of agricultural households in rural china in a theoretically consistent fashion based on this theoretical model we derive an empirical specification that we use to econometrically estimate the effects of the slcp and other exogenous factors using a large longitudinal farm household survey data set we estimate the empirical model with the hausman taylor estimation method the empirical results are generally consistent with the results of our theoretical comparative static analysis e g that the slcp significantly decreases agricultural production while the slcp increases non farm labor supply and total consumption in the yellow river basin these effects could not be observed in the yangtze river basin the recent reduction of the slcp compensation payment rates has had some notable but generally small effects

livelihood strategies and dynamics in rural cambodia summary this paper addresses one of the major challenges in rural livelihood analysis to quantitatively examine the dynamics of household livelihood strategies it investigates the interactions between livelihood assets activities and outcomes and captures the dynamics of long term changes and their underlying factors the study aims to identify the classification of rural livelihood strategies their transitions and factors influencing these processes and changes we employ the dynamic livelihood strategy framework and use panel data for 2008 and 2012 covering 464 households in 15 villages in cambodia for latent class cluster analysis and regression estimation in this paper livelihood strategies are quantified based on allocation of available resources which overcomes the limitations of income based analysis our study identifies five household livelihood strategies pursued in the study areas and the results show that over 70 of households change livelihood strategies over time in response to evolving pressures incentives and opportunities the study identifies covariates that shape the choices of livelihood strategies and affects the households access to more remunerative strategies such as education ownership of physical assets and access to infrastructure these findings suggest policy implications for improving the range of livelihood choices available to lower income groups to move out of poverty trap

the determinants of nonfarm income diversification in rural peru abstract this paper shows that in peruvian rural areas there has been substantial growth over the past decade in household employment outside of own farming at present 51 of the net income of rural households comes from these off farm activities and thus they certainly cannot be considered as marginal the reasons households diversify their incomes are several access to public assets such as roads and private assets such as education and credit is an important factor in diversification increasing access to these assets will help rural households to increase their self employment as well as wage employment in the nonfarm sector

exchange rate pass through abstract the resilience of trade balances of the major industrialized economies to changes in their exchange rates has evoked interest in the exchange rate pass through relationship so far there has not been a comprehensive survey of this literature the paper aims to fill this gap in two ways first it pieces together the theoretical literature on exchange rate pass through second it provides a critical survey of the empirical literature on exchange rate pass through emphasis is placed on the data and methodology employed in previous work this is done in order to guide future work in this growing area of research

how sustainable are sustainable development programs the case of the sloping land conversion program in china summary this paper undertakes a comprehensive assessment of the long run sustainability of one of the world s largest sustainable development programs the slopping land conversion program slcp in china under different plausible post slcp scenarios the analysis is based on farmer contingent behavior post program land and labor decisions as well as choice experiment data our econometric results highlight the main obstacles to the program s sustainability which include specific shortfalls in program implementation and certain institutional constraints namely tenure insecurity and poor land renting rights the use of a choice experiment also reveals unique evidence on rural households preferences over tenure reform in china

determinants of official opec crude prices the hypothesis of this paper is that crude oil like any other unfinished commodity is valued for the products derived from it the purpose is to offer an empirical explanation for changes in the crude price charged by the members of opec the model results show that the market clearing prices reported to prevail for petroleum products on the principal petroleum spot market at rotterdam are the primary determinants of changes in official crude prices a systematic relationship between offical and spot prices is argued to have prevailed since 1974 an appendix clarifies five types of data required for the model 13 references 4 tables

characterizing social networks and their effects on income diversification in rural kerala india summary income diversification continues to be a key strategy for poor rural households including those that are progressively developing and those operating under increasing distress the ability of a household to diversify has been shown to depend upon its demographic and economic characteristics and its physical and social context this paper considers the effects of intra village social networks on household income diversification in one of the poorest and most ethnically diverse areas of the indian state of kerala using techniques adapted from spatial econometrics we find that social connections within a village magnify the impacts of household characteristics such as education and number of adults by a factor of 3 6 times models with alternative measures of network centrality degree and eigenvector indicate that the number of network connections that a household has is more important than the centrality of those connections finally we use social contact information to calculate assortative mixing based on caste the results suggest social stratification in these villages with higher levels of stratification associated with lower levels of income diversification

rural household income distribution and inequality in china effects of payments for ecosystem services policies and other factors in the late 1990s china initiated the conversion of croplands to forest program ccfp and the ecological welfare forest program ewfp based on the payments for ecosystem services pes principle positive socioeconomic outcomes of the programs are essential for the long term success of eco environment conservation however there is lack of understanding of their longer term over 10 years impacts on rural livelihoods in this paper we examine income distribution and inequality of rural households under ccfp and ewfp in rural anhui china after 12 years of program implementation results show that ccfp participating households have higher income inequality than non participants while the ewfp does not have an significant effect local off farm work and out migration with remittances are the two principal income sources and both add to inequality a regression based decomposition of inequality shows that the ccfp indirectly alters livelihoods by increasing out migration with remittances but it also adds to inequality from shifting livelihoods to non agricultural activities meanwhile ewfp payments positively affect agricultural incomes and contribute 16 to agricultural income inequality finally human capital natural capital and physical capital all play important roles in generating income and inequality but the factors affecting inequality from agricultural and non agricultural activities are different

opec and world oil security abstract on the margin the effectiveness of policy to enhance the stability of world oil market oil conditions greatly depends on which countries supply what economists would call the marginal barrels that is the barrels whose production responds to changes in demand if the countries dominating the production of the marginal barrels are relatively unstable policies to reduce world oil consumption or boost oil production from stable suppliers will provide the additional benefit of reducing the contribution of unstable producers to the world oil market if the countries dominating the marginal barrel are relatively stable however policies to reduce world oil consumption or boost oil production from stable suppliers will be less effective in promoting oil market stability typically we think of the highest cost producers as supplying the marginal barrel of oil but our assessment finds it quite likely that opec dominates production of the marginal barrel of world oil moreover opec members have been among the more unstable producers on a historical basis hence reducing world oil consumption and promoting oil production in stable non opec countries will enhance world oil security policies to promote stability in opec countries also would enhance world oil security

valuing cattle on mixed smallholdings in the eastern amazon abstract cattle on smallholder farms are kept for socio economic reasons rather than physical production which explains why farmers favour low input and discontinuous management to find out how this form of livestock husbandry relates to the other main farming sub systems cattle keeping was compared with cassava and black pepper production data was collected from 37 cattle keeping mixed smallholdings during 15 visits at monthly intervals the three sub systems were studied in terms of productive efficiency of resource use socio economic contribution and ecosystem friendliness using cash flow non market output and non parametric rankings their relative performances in each domain were ranked and put on an amoeba diagram a general method of system description and assessment the markings connected across functions produced an outline of a polygon reminding the shape of an amoeba it was found that productive efficiency was lowest in cattle benefit cost ratio was highest in cassava while return to labour was especially strong in black pepper production the highest status lowest production risk highest liquidity and ease of sale related to cattle cattle and pastures ranked worst in terms of biodiversity damage to and pollution of water courses nutrient losses were highest in cassava due to the large amount harvested the differences in function meant that the three polygons occupied different segments of the circular diagram nevertheless together they formed a well rounded shape the amoeboid nature of these polygons can be used to predict the effect of a shift of activity on the farm making the diagram a useful illustrative tool for planning and teaching

oil prices without opec a walk on the supply side abstract the rapid increases of oil prices during the 1970s are commonly regarded as prima facie evidence of monopoly power this paper applies the theory of exhaustible resources to estimate the equilibrium oil prices also known as efficiency prices which would have prevailed in the absence of monopoly profits the theory incorporates an extraction cost function wherein cost is a rising function of the cumulative amount of oil extracted the model is used to simulate efficiency price paths under a variety of assumptions about extraction costs and real interest rates which are representative of perceptions at various times in recent history these simulations show that the price increases of 1974 and 1979 1980 can be explained as a response to supply side changes espicially changes in the perceived cost of the backstop technology and the fall in real interest rates in the mid and late 1970s thus while efficiency prices were high in the 1970s relative to extraction costs it is plausible that average monopoly profits were negligible this situation appears to have changed in the early 1980s due to the return of real interest rates to their historic levels in early 1982 even spot prices already below official prices were substantially above the estimated efficiency or competitive price level on the other hand efficiency prices remain far above extraction costs thus even if the price setting power of opec were eroded by competition the real price of oil would not fall below the level established in 1974

income diversification and entry barriers evidence from the tigray region of northern ethiopia abstract farm households diversify their income sources into off farm wage employment motivated by low farm income and availability of surplus family labor whereas they enter into off farm self employment to earn an attractive return farm households have upward sloping although inelastic off farm labor supply curves therefore increasing the availability of off farm activities and improving the wage rate received by farm households can expand the economic activity of the tigray regional state due to entry barriers relatively wealthy farm households may dominate the most lucrative rural non farm activities such as masonry carpentry and petty trade hence the underlying factors that hinder participation in non farm activities such as credit constraints and lack of skill may have to be addressed through the provision of credit and technical training for the poor

small menu costs and large business cycles a macroeconomic model of monopoly i introduction the conflict between modern neoclassical and traditional keynesian theories of the business cycle centers upon the pricing mechanism in neoclassical models prices are fully flexible they represent the continuous optimization of economic agents and the continuous intersection of supply and demand in keynesian models prices are often assumed to be sticky they do not necessarily equilibrate all markets at all times one of the reasons for the resurgence of the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics has been the absence of a theoretical underpinning for this keynesian price stickiness this note shows that sticky prices can be both privately efficient and socially inefficient the business cycle results from the suboptimal adjustment of prices in response to a demand shock to the extent that policy can stabilize aggregate demand it can mitigate the social loss due to this suboptimal adjustment in some keynesian models prices are simply exogenously fixed 2 in others agents must set their prices in advance of the transaction date the act of altering a posted price is certainly costly these costs include such items as printing new catalogs and informing salesmen of the new price yet these menu costs are small and therefore generally perceived as providing only a weak foundation for these fixed price models however this inference is flawed small menu costs can cause large welfare losses the claim that price adjustment costs are small does not rebut the claim that they are central to understanding economic fluctuations

land retirement and nonfarm labor market participation an analysis of china s sloping land conversion program summary china s sloping land conversion program pays more than 32 million households to plant trees on highly erodible cropland and has effected major land use changes farmers retire land indefinitely but receive time limited subsidies after which they in principle enter nonfarm employment we analyze annual data we collected on over 3 000 individuals and plots from 1998 2006 which contain variation in enrollment timing and alternative measures of enrollment and conclude enrollment has a small but significant and robust positive effect on nonfarm employment it arises not from alleviating constraints as recent papers have suggested but rather from simple farm to nonfarm labor substitution

income diversification poverty traps and policy shocks in cote d ivoire and kenya abstract this paper presents evidence on the effects of two different sorts of policy shocks on observed income diversification patterns in rural africa in cote d ivoire households with poor endowments were less able to respond to attractive emerging on farm and non farm opportunities due to entry barriers to superior livelihood strategies the benefits of exchange rate reform accrued disproportionately to households that were richer prior to devaluation by contrast food for work transfers to households in kenya significantly reduced liquidity constraints enabling project participants to pursue more lucrative livelihood strategies in non farm activities and higher return agricultural production patterns jointly these two shocks underscore the importance of liquidity market access and skill constraints to skilled non farm income sources to dynamic poverty traps in rural africa

what s so spatial about diversification in nigeria summary many households in developing countries allocate their productive assets among various income generating activities in order to develop a portfolio of income from occupations with different degrees of risk expected returns and seasonal and liquidity constraints the push and pull factors influencing diversification decisions of households are widely discussed in the literature however no study to date has taken into account spatial interdependence of household decisions in spite of various channels of neighborhood effects such as information flow learning from others social networks and agglomeration economies this paper fills in the gap by incorporating spatial dependence in the choice model of diversification using a spatial auto regressive probit model and an advanced bayesian strategy to its estimation empirical analysis is run taking advantage of the nigerian general household survey panel 2010 11 providing gis coordinates for the surveyed households the results imply endogeneity of the neighbors decisions to allocate their productive assets among various occupations and signal the importance of social learning and agglomeration effects favoring the spillover of diversification activities through neighbors networks and local markets the households decisions respond to local environment factors such as weather shocks or infrastructural constraints as shown by the regional differences taking into account spatial interdependence is particularly important in the event of a wide divide of the data available into different zones as for example in case of the nigerian northern region where the states are larger

exchange rates and prices the adjustment of relative prices to exchange rate movements is explained in an industrial organization approach given labor costs in the respective currencies exchange rate movements change costs for firms selling in the home market and thus disturb the industry equilibrium the extent of absolute and relative price adjustment is shown to depend on market integration product substitutability the relative number of domestic and foreign firms and the market structure the impact of exchange rates on prices is illustrated in a variety of approaches including the cournot a dixit and j stiglitz 1977 and s salop 1979 models some empirical evidence is offered in support of the theory copyright 1987 by american economic association

international comparisons of pricing to market behavior this paper measures the degree of price discrimination across export destinations that is associated with exchange rate changes using u s u k german and japanese industry level data given the industries sampled more price discrimination across destinations is observed in the u k german and japanese data for industries that match across source countries however behavior is very similar across source countries furthermore destination specific price adjustment on exports to the united states from germany and japan is similar to price adjustment observed on shipments to other destinations most variation in the data appears to be related to industry copyright 1993 by american economic association