variable selection in the analysis of energy consumption growth nexus abstract there is abundant empirical literature that focuses on whether energy consumption is a critical driver of economic growth the evolution of this literature has largely consisted of attempts to solve the problems and answer the criticisms arising from earlier studies one of the most common criticisms is that previous work concentrates on the bivariate relationship energy consumption economic growth many authors try to overcome this critique using control variables however the choice of these variables has been ad hoc made according to the subjective economic rationale of the authors our contribution to this literature is to apply a robust probabilistic model to select the explanatory variables from a large set of potential candidates in the case of the us from 1949 to 2010 not only for an aggregate analysis but also for a sector analysis the results highlight the critical role of public spending and energy intensity in the explanation of growth furthermore since the study reveals different explanatory variables for each sector it indicates the importance of policy decisions specifically aimed at different sectors

energy consumption economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in china this paper applies the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based dynamic ols to re investigate the co movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland china from 1985 to 2007 the empirical results show that there is a positive long run cointegrated relationship between real gdp per capita and energy consumption variables furthermore we investigate two cross regional groups namely the east china and west china groups and get more important results and implications in the long term a 1 increase in real gdp per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0 48 0 50 and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0 41 0 43 in china the economic growth in east china is energy dependent to a great extent and the income elasticity of energy consumption in east china is over 2 times that of the west china at present china is subject to tremendous pressures for mitigating climate change issues it is possible that the gdp per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions would be controlled in a range from 0 2 to 0 3 by the great effort

energy consumption and economic growth nexus in tanzania an ardl bounds testing approach abstract in this paper we examine the intertemporal causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in tanzania during the period of 1971 2006 unlike the majority of the previous studies we employ the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach by pesaran et al 2001 bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships journal of applied econometrics 16 289 326 to examine this linkage we also use two proxies of energy consumption namely total energy consumption per capita and electricity consumption per capita the results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long run relationship between each of the proxies of energy consumption and economic growth the results of the causality test on the other hand show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from total energy consumption to economic growth and a prima facie causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth overall the study finds that energy consumption spurs economic growth in tanzania

oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market evidence from south korea abstract how important are oil price fluctuations and oil price volatility on equity market performance what are the policy implications if volatility turns out to be significant we assess this issue in an economics finance nexus for korea using a vec model including interest rates economic activity real stock returns real oil prices and oil price volatility our main aim is to capture the effects of crude oil prices on the korean economy thoroughly covering the period of the asian financial crisis of 1997 which heavily affected the country and the oil price hikes in the early 1990s after the gulf war south korea was the country most hit by the financial crisis together with indonesia and thailand results indicate the dominance of oil price volatility on real stock returns and emphasize how this has increased over time oil price volatility can have profound effect on the time horizon of investment and firms need adjust their risk management procedures accordingly this increase in dependency has been found in other net oil importing emerging equity markets we test the relationship between oil price movements and economic activity by using modern time series techniques in a cointegrating framework we expand the standard error correction model by examining the dynamics of out of sample causality through the generalized variance decomposition and impulse response function techniques the evidence from persistence profiles also gives important guidelines based on how fast the entire system adjusts back to equilibrium in addition we find the cointegrating relationship to be stable and find that the linear error correction model to be more favorable than an asymmetric 2 period markov switching model

are macroeconomic policies better in curbing air pollution than environmental policies a dsge approach with carbon dependent fiscal and monetary policies abstract the environmental impacts of macroeconomic policies and their interaction with climate policies are under researched in the existing literature this paper compares the effectiveness of standard macroeconomic tools fiscal and monetary policies with carbon taxation in curbing air pollution by using an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium e dsge model we show how government expenditure interest rate and carbon tax rate should vary over time in order to stabilize carbon emission levels we find that i while all the aforementioned policies could stabilize carbon emissions their underlying mechanisms are different fiscal monetary and carbon tax policies uniquely and respectively lead to a reduction in abatement effort income tax revenue and general price level ii with economic expansions driven by total factor productivity tfp shocks fiscal policy is the only policy that could maintain the emission levels and simultaneously improve household welfare in term of consumption and labor iii regarding the interaction between carbon and macroeconomic policies carbon taxation should complement monetary policy while it should not respond to fiscal policy

energy consumption and economic development in sub sahara africa sub saharan african countries economic development is dependent on energy consumption this paper assesses total energy demand which is composed of traditional energy wood fuel and commercial energy electricity and petroleum in the central east south and west regions of sub saharan africa cross sectional time series data for 20 countries in 25 years are analyzed and the results of the study show that wood fuel accounts for 70 of energy consumption followed by petroleum with most industrial activities utilizing some form of wood fuel regression results suggest that energy demand is inversely related to the price of petroleum and industrial development but positively related to gdp population growth rate and agricultural expansion and that price elasticity is less than one the model results also show that there are regional differences in energy demand in addition the interaction of population growth rates by regions generates mixed results and there are regional differences in the use of commercial energy consumption and gdp growth the findings of this study suggest that countries must diversify their energy sources and introduce energy efficient devices and equipment at all levels of the economy to improve gdp growth rate and gdp per capita

china s carbon emissions trading overview challenges and future because china has emerged as the largest greenhouse gas ghg emitter in total annual emissions to accelerate the pace of ghg emission reduction in china is important to the success of global efforts in addressing climate change carbon trading is a market mechanism and key instrument in the mitigation of climate change this paper explores the policy process and development state to date of china s carbon trade market to understand the emergence and development of that market and to understand what barriers are hampering china s carbon trade market development to achieve this goal this paper introduces and analyzes china s status in the international market examines the factors driving carbon market launching by the chinese government and traces the development of mandatory carbon emission trading and voluntary emission trading it is argued that china s carbon trading market is confronted with challenges such as the absence of a functional carbon trading market inaccuracy of the quota allocation an imperfect trading mechanism and lagging legislation at the present stage shortcomings such as having no real time carbon price and dominated spot transactions differentiate china s trade market substantially from a functional system a quick market integration of china s carbon market appears remote it is suggested that specific measures be taken to promote the development of the chinese carbon trading market

industrialization electricity consumption and co2 emissions in bangladesh this paper investigates the relationship between industrialization electricity consumption and co2 emissions in case of bangladesh using quarter frequency data over the period of 1975 2010 the ar

the impact of natural disaster on energy consumption international evidence abstract this research shows that natural disasters may hurt energy consumption by using data on 123 countries over the period 1990 2015 and classifying them according to their economic development level and region based on world development indicators we employ a two step system gmm method to examine the effect of natural disasters on energy consumption presenting findings that support our hypotheses in the models and show a strong negative effect for low income countries or those in the africa region after considering an alternative proxy for natural disaster we implement quantile regression methods their results find that natural disasters exhibit a negative and significant impact on oil renewable and nuclear energy consumptions the quantile regression models used in the robustness check present that the effects are stronger for low level energy consumption economies

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from 11 sub sahara african countries abstract the paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for eleven countries in sub saharan africa using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds test the study finds that energy consumption is cointegrated with economic growth in cameroon cote d ivoire gambia ghana senegal sudan and zimbabwe moreover this test suggests that energy consumption has a significant positive long run impact on economic growth in ghana kenya senegal and sudan granger causality test based on vector error correction model vecm shows bi directional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for gambia ghana and senegal however granger causality test shows that economic growth granger causes energy consumption in sudan and zimbabwe the neutrality hypothesis is confirmed in respect of cameroon and cote d ivoire the same result of no causality was found for nigeria kenya and togo the result shows that each country should formulate appropriate energy conservation policies taking into cognizance of her peculiar condition

the relationship between energy and production evidence from turkish manufacturing industry this paper investigates the relationship between energy and production at the industry level in an emerging market turkey in a multivariate framework the electricity consumption and value added relation is examined in the turkish manufacturing industry while also accounting for labor and fixed investment we find that labor fixed investment electricity consumption and value added are related via three cointegrating vectors the vec results indicate uni directional causality running from electricity consumption to value added generalized impulse response and variance decomposition analyses confirm these results thus energy input appears to be closely related to production hence energy saving technologies and increased energy efficiency may increase the growth in manufacturing value added

estimating energy conservation potential in china s energy intensive industries with rebound effect abstract the energy consumption of china s six most energy intensive sub industries is about half of the total national energy consumption and accounts for more than 70 of industrial energy consumption in recent years these six industries are capital and energy intensive and have a great impact on the energy consumption of china so they are directly related to the achievement of the energy conservation goal in the 13th five year plan this paper investigates the influential factors of energy consumption in the industries by employing the cointegration method and estimates the possible energy conservation potential considering energy rebound effect the results show that gdp and the scale of industries are the deterministic factors increasing energy consumption while r d intensity decreases it energy price has little impact on energy consumption the average energy rebound effect is calculated using the latent variable approach and the result is 90 75 considering energy rebound effect the energy conservation potential of china s energy intensive industries is 14 18 26 54 million tons of standard coal equivalent in 2020 and 44 64 80 72 million tons of standard coal equivalent in 2030

energy and national income in korea further evidence on the role of omitted variables abstract results of this paper indicate that the real oil price is a major determinant of real national income and energy consumption the combined effects of real money and real government expenditure on real income and energy consumption are also substantial a lack of causality or the causality between energy and real income in prior studies is due to the omitted variables results also confirm that the two oil price shocks combined adversely affected real national income

the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the asean 5 countries abstract the objective of this study is to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for asean 5 countries which includes indonesia malaysia thailand singapore and the philippines for empirical examination annual time series data in the period of 1980 2012 are used the results of johansen co integration test reveal that there exists one co integrating relationship among the variables in case of indonesia malaysia the philippines and singapore the results uncover the existence of two co integrating associations among the variables for thailand the granger causality test suggests that there is no unilateral causality for indonesia as in all the three cases in case of malaysia the economic growth caused energy consumption however no evidence is found for causality either from exports or from gross fixed capital formation to energy consumption while in the cases of thailand and the philippines the direction of causality runs from gross fixed capital formation to energy consumption for singapore energy consumption runs from two sides i e one from exports side and the other from gross fixed capital formation side the findings exhibit that energy consumption has significant and long run relationship to economic growth for almost all asean 5 countries the findings suggest that policy makers need to formulate policies conducive to the energy development which will consequently accelerate sustainable economic growth in asean countries energy development should be based on the existing condition of each country a comprehensive investment framework for renewable energy should also be developed besides maintaining adequate energy inventory the asean countries should strengthen their institutions and capacity as well as cooperation in energy management and development

energy consumption prices and economic growth in three ssa countries a comparative study in this paper we examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in three sub saharan african countries namely south africa kenya and congo drc we incorporate prices as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between energy consumption and economic growth thereby creating a simple trivariate framework using the ardl bounds testing procedure we find that the causality between energy consumption and economic growth varies significantly across the countries under study the results show that for south africa and kenya there is a unidirectional causal flow from energy consumption to economic growth however for congo drc it is economic growth that drives energy consumption these findings have important policy implications insofar as energy conservation policies are concerned in the case of congo drc for example the implementation of energy conservation policies may not significantly affect economic growth because the country s economy is not entirely energy dependent however for south africa and kenya there is a need for more energy supply augmentations in order to cope with the long run energy demand in the short run however the two countries should explore more efficient and cost effective sources of energy in order to address the energy dependency problem

the dynamics of natural gas consumption and gdp in bangladesh abstract reserves of natural gas in bangladesh are very large and total demand has increased secularly in recent years this paper examines the causal relationship between the consumption of natural gas and gdp in bangladesh over the period 1980 to 2010 we find that there is a positive unidirectional causality running from gdp to natural gas consumption movements in gdp affect the consumption of natural gas but not vice versa while our results rest on several statistical assumptions they support the pursuit of policies that are in line with energy conservation implementing these policies will be of particular significance in light of the fact that bangladesh s current reserves of natural gas will not meet its current level of consumption demand beyond the next two decades

causality relationship between electricity consumption and gdp in bangladesh in this paper we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita gdp for bangladesh using cointegration and vector error correction model our results show that there is unidirectional causality from per capita gdp to per capita electricity consumption however the per capita electricity consumption does not cause per capita gdp in case of bangladesh the finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation emission reduction and economic development

pollution energy use gdp and trade estimating the long run relationship for vietnam abstractsince the beginning of economic reform in the 1980s and in particular with its openness to international trade accelerating since the 1990s the vietnamese economy has registered significant growth at the same time energy consumption and the level of pollution in vietnam has also increased this article aims to focus on the link between openness to trade and pollution in vietnam due to lack of data very few existing studies have focused on vietnam using annual data from1980 to 2011 and employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration based on an autoregressive distributed lagged ardl model we find that there is a statistically significant long run relationship amongst pollution openness to trade energy consumption and real national income in vietnam this conclusion continues to hold when the possibility of a structural break in the relationship is allowed for using the gregory hansen approach to cointegration analysis of the cointegration relationship suggests that in respons

when will fossil fuel reserves be diminished crude oil coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply the size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that when non renewable energy will be diminished is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered this paper presents a new formula for calculating when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted and develops an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables the new formula is modified from the klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil coal and gas of approximately 35 107 and 37 years respectively this means that coal reserves are available up to 2112 and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042 in the econometrics model the main exogenous variables affecting oil coal and gas reserve trends are their consumption and respective prices between 1980 and 2006 the models for oil and gas reserves unexpectedly show a positive and significant relationship with consumption while presenting a negative and significant relationship with price the econometrics model for coal reserves however expectedly illustrates a negative and significant relationship with consumption and a positive and significant relationship with price consequently huge reserves of coal and low level coal prices in comparison to oil and gas make coal one of the main energy substitutions for oil and gas in the future under the assumption of coal as a clean energy source

carbon emissions trading scheme exploration in china a multi agent based model abstract to develop a low carbon economy china launched seven pilot programs for carbon emissions trading cet in 2011 and plans to establish a nationwide cet mechanism in 2015 this paper formulated a multi agent based model to investigate the impacts of different cet designs in order to find the most appropriate one for china the proposed bottom up model includes all main economic agents in a general equilibrium framework the simulation results indicate that 1 cet would effectively reduce carbon emissions with a certain negative impact on the economy 2 as for allowance allocation the grandfathering rule is relatively moderate while the benchmarking rule is more aggressive 3 as for the carbon price when the price level in the secondary cet market is regulated to be around rmb 40 per metric ton a satisfactory emission mitigation effect can be obtained 4 the penalty rate is suggested to be carefully designed to balance the economy development and mitigation effect and 5 subsidy policy for energy technology improvement can effectively reduce carbon emissions without an additional negative impact on the economy the results also indicate that the proposed novel model is a promising tool for cet policy making and analyses

energy consumption and economic growth in the next 11 countries the bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach abstract departing from previous literature using bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach which is more robust against non stationarity and break problems than lag augmented tests this study analyzes causal relation between economic growth and energy consumption in the next 11 countries estimating a trivariate model consisting of gdp per capita energy consumption per capita and gross capital formation it was found that the neutrality hypothesis is valid for all of the countries except for turkey these findings imply that energy conservation oriented policies should be implemented in bangladesh egypt indonesia iran korea mexico pakistan and philippines in the case of turkey a unidirectional causal nexus was found from energy consumption to economic growth since the growth hypothesis is valid energy conservation policy poses an obstacle for economic growth in turkey

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from china at both aggregated and disaggregated levels using a neo classical aggregate production model where capital labor and energy are treated as separate inputs this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and energy use in china at both aggregated total energy and disaggregated levels as coal oil and electricity consumption using the johansen cointegration technique the empirical findings indicate that there exists long run cointegration among output labor capital and energy use in china at both aggregated and all three disaggregated levels then using a vec specification the short run dynamics of the interested variables are tested indicating that there exists granger causality running from electricity and oil consumption to gdp but does not exist granger causality running from coal and total energy consumption to gdp on the other hand short run granger causality exists from gdp to total energy coal and oil consumption but does not exist from gdp to electricity consumption we thus propose policy suggestions to solve the energy and sustainable development dilemma in china as enhancing energy supply security and guaranteeing energy supply especially in the short run to provide adequate electric power supply and set up national strategic oil reserve enhancing energy efficiency to save energy diversifying energy sources energetically exploiting renewable energy and drawing out corresponding policies and measures and finally in the long run transforming development pattern and cut reliance on resource and energy dependent industries

exploring the relationship between energy use and economic growth with bivariate models new evidence from g 7 countries abstract there is a rapidly growing literature on the interaction between energy use and economic development with many analysts drawing policy conclusions on the basis of granger causality tests that involve only an energy and an economic variable this paper attempts to demonstrate empirically that such studies although useful for certain applications may be of limited use for policy purposes after outlining theoretical and methodological issues associated with such approaches i apply bivariate energy economy causality tests for canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states using aggregate and sectoral data and three different modern econometric methods the results which are often contradictory or economically implausible illustrate explicitly that one should be cautious when drawing policy implications with the aid of bivariate causality tests on small samples i therefore underline the importance of utilizing as large sample sizes as possible and using multivariate models which are closer to economic theory accommodate several mechanisms and causality channels and provide a better representation of real world interactions between energy use and economic growth

does the level of energy intensity matter in the effect of energy consumption on the growth of transition economies evidence from dynamic panel threshold analysis abstract this study investigates whether the effect of energy consumption on economic growth differs by the level of energy intensity we employ an advanced dynamic panel threshold regression model to test for the threshold level of energy intensity that has an asymmetrical energy consumption effect on economic growth we consider 12 commonwealth of independent states countries over the period 1991 2013 the estimated panel threshold regression model suggests 0 44 as the threshold level of energy intensity energy consumption above this level significantly retards economic growth whereas energy consumption below the level is found to have a statistically significant positive effect on economic growth thus when the threshold level of energy intensity one of the important indicators of energy efficiency is exceeded energy consumption significantly hinders growth if policy makers pay more attention to energy intensity while formulating new energy policies substantial gains can be achieved in low energy intensity environments

energy and economic growth in the usa a multivariate approach abstract this paper examines the causal relationship between gdp and energy use for the period 1947 90 in the usa the relationship between energy use and economic growth has been examined by both biophysical and neoclassical economists in particular several studies have tested for the presence of a causal relationship in the granger sense between energy use and economic growth however these tests do not allow a direct test of the relative explanatory powers of the neoclassical and biophysical models a multivariate adaptation of the test vector autoregression var does allow such a test a var of gdp energy use capital stock and employment is estimated and granger tests for causal relationships between the variables are carried out although there is no evidence that gross energy use granger causes gdp a measure of final energy use adjusted for changing fuel composition does granger cause gdp

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

energy growth conundrum in energy exporting and importing countries evidence from heterogeneous panel methods robust to cross sectional dependence abstract this article uses the panel methods for energy exporting and importing countries that discuss the heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence in investigating the linkages between energy consumption and economic growth the findings of the study suggest that the energy consumption is an important input not only in the energy importing but also in energy exporting countries furthermore the results of the present paper suggest that the policy options should be different for the different countries in the back drop of heterogeneous slope coefficients

the relationship between energy and gnp further results this paper reexamines the casuality between gnp and energy consumption by using updated us data for the period 1947 1979 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and employment applying sims technique we find no causal relationship between gnp and energy consumption we find further that there is a slight unidirectional flow running from employment to energy consumption economic interpretations of the empirical results are also presented

the energy growth nexus in thailand does trade openness boost up energy consumption the nexus between trade openness and energy demand is hot topic of discussion among academicians and researchers and numerous studies are available in existing literature while investigating the nexus between trade openness and energy demand this paper explores the relationship between energy consumption trade openness and economic growth in case of thailand in doing so we have applied bayer and hanck cointegration approach to test whether the long run relationship exists between the variables our results confirm the presence of cointegration between the variables energy consumption stimulates economic growth trade openness adds in economic growth the causality analysis reveals that energy consumption granger causes economic growth and in resulting economic growth granger causes energy consumption trade openness and energy consumption are interdependent i e trade openness granger causes energy consumption and in return energy consumption granger causes trade openness this paper openness up new directions for policy making authorities in thailand to design a comprehensive energy and trade policies to sustain economic growth for long run

environmental kuznets curve for carbon emissions in pakistan an empirical investigation this study investigates the relationship between carbon emissions income energy consumption and foreign trade in pakistan for the period 1972 2008 by employing the johansen method of cointegration the study finds that there is a quadratic long run relationship between carbon emissions and income confirming the existence of environmental kuznets curve for pakistan moreover both energy consumption and foreign trade are found to have positive effects on emissions the short run results have however denied the existence of the environmental kuznets curve the short run results are unique to the existing literature in the sense that none of the long run determinants of emissions is significant the contradictory results of short and long run give policy makers the opportunity to formulate different types of growth policies for the two terms taking environmental issues into consideration in addition the uni directional causality from growth to energy consumption suggests that the policy makers should not only focus on forecasting future demand for energy with different growth scenarios but also on obtaining the least cost energy furthermore the absence of causality from emissions to growth suggests that pakistan can curb its carbon emissions without disturbing its economic growth

introduction to the special issue urban energy governance local actions capacities and politics introduction to a special issue showing how there is much to be gained for deeper understandings of energy policy from a specifically urban analysis of rationales forms and repercussions of energy systems in transition the special issue offers an in depth examination of the variety of urban responses to quite distinctive and sometimes competing energy related challenges

the importance of electrical energy for economic growth in barbados using a neo classical aggregate production model where capital labour technology and energy are treated as separate inputs this paper tests for the existence and direction of causality between output growth and electrical energy use in barbados analysed as a whole and in sectors respectively results indicate the presence of a long run relationship between growth and electricity consumption specifically we find that the non residential sector is a key driver of growth in addition the evidence reveals a bidirectional causal relationship between electrical energy consumption and real gdp in the long run but only a unidirectional causal relationship from energy to output in the short run forecasts indicate increasing consumption of electrical energy particularly by the residential sector we suggest that plans by the government to liberalise the sector should encourage efficiency and innovation in production and distribution which should result in lower prices as independent suppliers compete to maintain their market shares changes in the regulatory environment will also be necessary if such plans materialise policymakers will need to pay greater attention to the expected increase in the rate of consumption by the residential sector as this will help to reduce the imports of oil and depletion of scarce foreign exchange resources by a sector that does not spur economic growth an increase in energy capacity should be encouraged as contingency planning in the event of a technical or political disruption to fuel imports will be critical notwithstanding the drive to use more renewable sources of energy

disaggregated industrial energy consumption and gdp the case of shanghai 1952 1999 abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between various kinds of industrial energy consumption and gdp in shanghai for the period 1952 1999 using a modified version of the granger 1969 causality test proposed by toda and yamamoto j econ 66 1995 225 the empirical evidence from disaggregated energy series seems to suggest that there was a uni directional granger causality running from coal coke electricity and total energy consumption to real gdp but no granger causality running in any direction between oil consumption and real gdp

the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the asean countries abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among the association of south east asian nations asean 4 members namely indonesia malaysia singapore and thailand using modern time series techniques for the period 1971 2002 the results indicate that there is a bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia and singapore this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in the two countries however uni directional causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption in indonesia and thailand without any feedback effect thus electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects in the two countries

panel estimation for co2 emissions energy consumption economic growth trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries abstract this paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions energy consumption economic growth trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries nic using the time series data for the period 1971 2007 using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1 from the johansen fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables the granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long run causal relationship but there is unidirectional short run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions from economic growth to energy consumption from trade openness to economic growth from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization it is found that the long run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption 1 2189 is higher than short run elasticity of 0 5984 this indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more but in respect of economic growth trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long run

the causality between energy consumption and economic growth in turkey abstract this paper applies the causality test to examine the causal relationship between primary energy consumption ec and real gross national product gnp for turkey during 1970 2006 we employ unit root tests the augmented dickey fuller adf and the philips perron pp johansen cointegration test and pair wise granger causality test to examine relation between ec and gnp our empirical results indicate that the two series are found to be non stationary however first differences of these series lead to stationarity further the results indicate that ec and gnp are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from ec to gnp and vice versa this means that an increase in ec directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further ec this bidirectional causality relationship between ec and gnp determined for turkey at 1970 2006 period is in accordance with the ones in literature reported for similar countries consequently we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in turkey and hence shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth

electricity demand and conservation potential in the chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry newhuadu business school research fund ministry of education foundation 10jzd0018 10jbg013 china sustainable energy program g 1103 13921 national social science foundation 09zd050

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from cameroon abstract the aim of this paper is to study the nature of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in cameroon through a three step approach i study the stationarity of the chronic ii test of causality between variables and iii estimate the appropriate model the study concludes in a non stationarity of the series using the data in first difference the granger causality test yields a strong evidence for unidirectional causality running from oil to gdp cointegration tests also show that these two series are co integrated and the error correction model ecm reveals that every percentage increase in oil products consumption increases economic growth by around 1 1 this result confirms the intuition that an economic policy aimed at improving energy supply will necessarily have a positive impact on economic growth on the other side a lack of energy is a major bottleneck for further economic development in cameroon

the economics of distributed energy generation a literature review the uk electricity system is likely to face dramatic technical and institutional changes in the near future current uk energy policy focuses on the need for a clean affordable and secure energy supply decentralisation of the electricity system is recognised as one means of achieving efficient and renewable energy provision as well as addressing concerns over ageing electricity infrastructure and capacity constraints in this paper we provide a critical literature review of the economics of increased penetration of distributed energy generation we find that there exists a large volume of research considering the financial viability of individual distributed generation technologies and we are necessarily selective in our review of these studies given the wide variety of technologies that the definition of distributed generation encompasses however there are few studies that focus on the pure economics of individual or groups of distributed energy generators and even fewer still based on the economy wide aspects of distributed generation in view of this gap in the literature we provide suggestions for future research which are likely to be necessary in order adequately to inform public policy on distributed generation and its role in the future of uk energy supply

the energy gdp nexus addressing an old question with new methods abstract this paper reassesses the causal relationship between per capita energy use and gross domestic product while controlling for capital and labour productivity inputs in a panel of 30 oecd countries over the past 40 years the paper uses panel unit root and cointegration testing and specifies an appropriate vector error correction model to analyse the nexus between income and energy use in doing so we contribute to an old debate using modern tools that shed a new light there is some evidence that over the very short run bidirectional causality exists our results also show a strong unidirectional causality running from capital formation and gdp to energy usage in the long run the reverse causality found in recent work is lost we then show that we can reproduce these earlier results in our data if we reproduce a slightly misspecified model for the engle granger two step procedure used in these earlier papers our findings thus imply that results are very sensitive to model misspecification and careful testing of specifications is required our results have some strong policy implications they suggest that policies aimed at reducing energy usage or promoting energy efficiency are not likely to have a detrimental effect on economic growth except over the very short run

economic growth and energy consumption revisited evidence from linear and nonlinear granger causality the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is considered as an imperative issue in energy economics previous studies have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks in this study both linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are applied to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a sample of asian newly industrialized countries as well as the u s this study finds evidence supporting a neutrality hypothesis for the united states thailand and south korea however empirical evidence on philippines and singapore reveals a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption while energy consumption may have affected economic growth for taiwan hong kong malaysia and indonesia policy implications are also discussed

energy human capital and economic growth in asia pacific countries evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis this paper examines the cointegration and causal relationship between energy consumption and economic development in 16 asia pacific countries over the period 1970 2011 using the augmented production function which considers not only physical capital and labor but also human capital this is likely among the first of the energy growth nexus literature to include human capital in the multivariate framework using recently developed panel unit root test and cointegration test that allow for cross sectional dependence this paper finds a long run cointegrating relationship between these variables continuously updated fully modified cup fm estimates are subsequently compared with panel heterogeneous fully modified ordinary least squares fmols results to confirm the importance of accounting for interdependence across countries the bootstrap panel granger causality test results find economic growth granger cause energy use in the region but the relationship varies for individual countries

the role of small firms in the technology development of china science technology s t is high on the chinese policy agenda and the country aims at becoming an innovation driven economy small firms have been important in technology development in other east asian countries but the situation in chinese small firms has been far less explored we examine how much s t has been accounted for by small firms and how their s t intensity differs across industries and ownership groups we also analyse how various firm characteristics differ over size categories and s t status this study is based on newly processed micro level data provided by the national bureau of statistics with information on a large number of s t indicators for manufacturing firms in china in 2000 and 2004 our results suggest that the role of small firms in chinese s t is similar to that in many other countries they account for a comparably small share of total s t and most small firms are not engaged in any s t however those small firms that do engage in s t tend to be more s t intensive and have a higher output in terms of patents than larger chinese s t firms

decoupling factors on the energy output linkage the spanish case the recent increase of energy intensity in spain and the ratification of the kyoto protocol call for the implementation of energy policies in spain in this paper we investigate the relationship between gross domestic product gdp and energy consumption ec by taking into account several decoupling factors that can affect this linkage specifically we have considered the temporal aggregation of data and its seasonal adjustments the multivariate methodology the substitution between ec and other inputs and the technological changes empirical tests reveal a long run relationship between ec and gdp that can only be established in a complete way with a multivariate cointegration analysis furthermore a short run unidirectional causality from ec to economic growth is found therefore primary ec plays an important role as a limiting factor for economic growth in spain in the short run

trivariate causality between economic growth urbanisation and electricity consumption in angola cointegration and causality analysis abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between economic growth urbanisation and electricity consumption in the case of angola while utilizing the data over the period of 1971 2009 we have applied lee and strazicich 2003 the review of economics and statistics 63 1082 1089 2004 working paper department of economics appalachian state university unit root tests to examine the stationarity properties of the series using the gregory hansen structural break cointegration procedure as a complement we employ the ardl bounds test to investigate long run relationships the vecm granger causality test is subsequently used to examine the direction of causality between economic growth urbanisation and electricity consumption our results indicate the existence of long run relationships we further observe evidence in favour of bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth the feedback hypothesis is also found between urbanisation and economic growth urbanisation and electricity consumption granger cause each other we conclude that angola is energy dependent country consequently the relevant authorities should boost electricity production as one of the means of achieving sustainable economic development in the long run

designing carbon markets part ii carbon markets in space this paper analyses the design of carbon markets in time i e intertemporally it is part of a twin set of papers that ask starting from first principles what an optimal global carbon market would look like by around 2030 our focus is on firm level cap and trade systems although much of what we say would also apply to government level trading and carbon offset schemes we examine the first principles of temporal design that would help to maximise flexibility and to minimise costs including banking and borrowing and other mechanisms to provide greater carbon price predictability and credibility over time

public expenditure and national income causality further evidence on the role of omitted variables whether changes in public expenditure growth help predict changes in national income growth and or vice versa remains an important issue of sustained interest in the empirical public finance literature in recent years attention has mainly been confined to two specific areas namely estimation of the impact of the public sector on output growth by means of regression analysis and causality testing unfortunately the outcome of both types of analysis has been inconclusive focussing on the impact studies we note that a number of empirical investigations have attempted to measure the effect of the size of the public sector on overall economic growth for instance ram 19 utilizing a two sector model found that growth of government size has a positive effect on economic growth landau 14 15 however presented opposite evidence indicating that the government sector expansion led to a decline in output growth for many dcs and ldcs since 1960 in a recent study barth keleher and russek 4 estimated variants of ram s models with data for 30 countries their empirical results largely support a negative relationship between the scale of government and aggregate economic activity furthermore using the hausman procedure they rejected the hypothesis that the independent variables namely real government spending or other measures of the scale of the government depending on the specification in the regression equations are exogenous this strongly suggests that the conclusions reached by

causality between energy and output in the long run though there is a very large literature examining whether energy use granger causes economic output or vice versa this literature is fairly inconclusive almost all existing studies use relatively short time series or panels with a relatively small time dimension additionally many recent papers continue to use what seem to be misspecified models we apply granger causality and cointegration techniques to a swedish time series data set on energy and economic growth spanning 150 years to test whether increases in energy use and energy quality have driven economic growth we show that these techniques are very sensitive to variable definition choice of additional variables in the model and sample periods all of the following appear to make a finding that energy causes growth more likely using multivariate models defining variables to better reflect their theoretical definition using larger samples and including appropriate structural breaks however it is also possible that the relationship between energy and growth has changed over time and that results from recent smaller samples reflect this energy prices have a significant causal impact on both energy use and output

energy consumption pollutant emissions and economic growth in south africa article i nfo article history this paper examines the long run and the causal relationship between economic growth pollutant emissions and energy consumption for south africa for the period 1965 2006 in a multivariate framework which includes labour and capital as additional variables using the bound test approach to cointegration we found a short run as well as a long run relationship among the variables with a positive and a statistically significant relationship between pollutant emissions and economic growth further applying a modified version of the granger causality test we also found a unidirectional causality running from pollutant emissions to economic growth from energy consumption to economic growth and from energy consumption to co2 emissions all without a feedback the econometric evidence suggests that south africa has to sacrifice economic growth or reduce its energy consumption per unit of output or both in order to reduce pollutant emissions in the long run however it is possible to meet the energy needs of the country and at the same time reduce co2 emissions by developing energy alternatives to coal the main source of co2 emissions however the econometric results upon which the policy suggestions are made should be interpreted with care as they may not be sufficiently robust enough to categorically warrant the choice of an unpalatable policy option by south africa

a meta analysis investigation of the direction of the energy gdp causal relationship implications for the growth degrowth dialogue abstract the complex relation between energy use and the economic process has long attracted attention issues such as the scarcity of energy resources energy theory of value degrowth and a growth approaches are closely related to the relationship between energy and development the present study traces the implications of the energy gdp causality dialogue for the context of the growth degrowth debate where the energy development link plays a decisive role in that context the present research investigates the possible existence of a fundamental macro direction of causality between energy use and economic growth that is not influenced by study specific characteristics and events towards this objective we perform a meta analysis that takes into account 158 studies on causality between energy and gdp covering the period 1978 2011 this is the first time to our knowledge that meta analysis has been applied to investigate the direction of the energy and gdp causal relationship the meta analysis results neither support the existence of a fundamental macro direction nor the so called neutrality hypothesis e gdp in the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

an empirical analysis of electricity consumption in cyprus abstract the paper presents the first empirical analysis of electricity consumption in cyprus using annual data from 1960 to 2004 we have examined electricity use in the residential and the services sectors which are the fastest growing electricity consumers in the island and its interaction with income prices and the weather the analysis was performed with the aid of time series analysis techniques such as unit root tests with and without a structural break in levels cointegration tests vector error correction models granger causality tests and impulse response functions results show long term elasticities of electricity use above unity for income and of the order of 0 3 to 0 4 for prices in the short term electricity consumption is rather inelastic mostly affected by weather fluctuations granger causality tests confirm exogeneity of electricity prices and bidirectional causality between residential electricity consumption and private income the commercial sector is less elastic and reverts faster to equilibrium than the residential sector despite the relatively small sample size results reported here are quite robust and can be used for forecasts and policy analyses

low carbon transition in a distributed energy system regulated by localized energy markets abstract low carbon transition becomes an urgent need of modern societies for energy conservation and environmental protection the purpose of this work is to evaluate the roles of market regulation energy consumption and energy capacity in low carbon transition for distributed energy systems through an agent based simulation a set of agent behavioral rules for the competition of high carbon and low carbon energies mimics the local dynamics of the energy production of distributed energy systems and the energy consumption of industrial firms under the impact of energy market fluctuation simulation results show that under the condition of increased energy capacities with a positive feedback between supply and demand low carbon transition can be facilitated by the combination of market adjustment favoring low carbon energies and the policy adjustment for low energy consumptions by contrast with low energy capacities and high energy consumptions transitions from high carbon economy to low carbon economy inevitably render a catastrophic economic depression policy implications for different situations of countries are drawn regarding the regulation of localized energy markets for restricting the supply of high carbon energy while cultivating the demand for low carbon energy and the improvement on energy saving energy production efficiency and storage capacity

asymmetries in the dynamic interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth evidence from turkey abstract in this study we examine possible nonlinearities in dynamic interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth in turkey for the 1960 2010 period by using a smooth transition vector autoregressive model in order to trace the effects of one variable on another we calculate generalized impulse response functions girfs the computed impulse response functions demonstrate asymmetric effects of positive versus negative and small versus large energy consumption shocks on output growth and vice versa specifically we find that negative energy shocks have a greater effect on output growth than positive energy shocks and that big negative energy shocks affect output much more than small negative energy shocks similarly we find that positive output shock has a greater effect on energy consumption whereas negative shocks have almost no effect on energy consumption the results of this study have clear and important implications for energy economists and policymakers in turkey

energy conservation and sustainable economic growth the case of latin america and the caribbean this study examines the causal relationships among energy consumption economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in twenty countries from latin america and the caribbean region the methodology includes the use of phillips and perron pp tests a cointegration model with vector error correction modeling vecm and vector autoregression var with granger causality the study concludes that of the twenty countries analyzed only in four of them will it be possible to implement energy conservation polices without affecting their economic growth four others are not able to consider an energy conservation policy with economic growth and the other twelve should focus on their economic growth before adopting any conservation policies energy efficiency was found in this region especially in the countries which have both cointegration and short term equilibrium

the link between green taxation and economic growth on co2 emissions fresh evidence from malaysia abstract this paper explores how carbon taxation and economic growth affect environment hazards in malaysia using time series data over the period 1974 2010 we applied cointegration and causality approaches to determine the long term cointegration and direction of causal relationship between these variables based on the results we found the cointegration relationship between the variables furthermore we noted that although kuznets theory i e inverted u shaped curve between economic growth and co 2 emissions is valid for malaysia the carbon taxation policy is ineffective to control co 2 emissions the causality analysis revealed that there is a bidirectional relationship between carbon tax and co 2 emissions economic growth granger causes co 2 emissions and carbon tax granger causes economic growth to enhance the awareness concerning pollution issues governments should rely on alternative instruments that may give benefit to the taxpayers and reduce pollution which is the pivotal issue to be tackled globally

energy consumption and gdp in turkey is there a co integration relationship energy consumption and gdp are expected to grow by 5 9 and 7 annually until 2025 in turkey this paper tries to unfold the linkage between energy consumption and gdp by undertaking a co integration analysis for turkey with annual data over the period 1970 2003 the analysis shows that energy consumption and gdp are co integrated this means that there is a possibly bi directional causality relationship between the two we establish that there is a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption indicating that energy saving would not harm economic growth in turkey in addition we find that energy consumption keeps on growing as long as the economy grows in turkey

energy consumption economic growth and carbon emissions challenges faced by an eu candidate member abstract this paper investigates the long run granger causality relationship between economic growth carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in turkey controlling for gross fixed capital formation and labor the most interesting result is that carbon emissions seem to granger cause energy consumption but the reverse is not true the lack of a long run causal link between income and emissions may be implying that to reduce carbon emissions turkey does not have to forgo economic growth

energy and output dynamics in bangladesh the relationship between energy consumption and output is still ambiguous in the existing literature the economy of bangladesh having spectacular output growth and rising energy demand as well as energy efficiency in recent decades can be an ideal case for examining energy output dynamics we find that while fluctuations in energy consumption do not affect output fluctuations movements in output inversely affect movements in energy use the results of granger causality tests in this respect are consistent with those of innovative accounting that includes variance decompositions and impulse responses autoregressive distributed lag models also suggest a role of output in bangladesh s energy use hence the findings of this study have policy implications for other developing nations where measures for energy conservation and efficiency can be relevant in policymaking

disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in south africa abstract this paper tries to assess the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in south africa by undertaking a cointegration analysis using annual data from 1980 to 2005 we also investigate the causal relationships between the various disaggregate forms of energy consumption and industrial production our results imply that industrial production and employment are long run forcing variables for electricity consumption applying the toda h y yamamoto t 1995 statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes journal of econometrics 66 225 250 technique to granger causality we find bi directional causality between oil consumption and industrial production for the other forms of energy consumption there is evidence in support of the energy neutrality hypothesis there is also evidence of causality between employment and electricity consumption as well as coal consumption causing employment

do population density economic growth energy use and exports adversely affect environmental quality in asian populous countries abstract this study aims to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide co2 emissions energy use economic growth exports and population density for a panel of 11 asian populous countries over the period of 1960 2014 the panel cointegration tests and panel granger causality tests are employed to examine this relationship the fully modified ordinary least squares fmols and dynamic ordinary least squares dols methods are used to explore the long run effects of other variables on the co2 emissions the main results are i energy use exports and population density adversely affect environmental quality in the long run ii there exists a short run unidirectional granger panel causality running from energy consumption gross domestic product gdp and exports to co2 emissions from energy consumption and exports to gdp from exports to energy consumption from population density to exports and a bidirectional panel causality between gdp and population density and iii a long run bidirectional granger causality between these variables is also present important policy implications are noted based on these findings