price indexes inequality and the measurement of world poverty i discuss the measurement of world poverty and inequality with particular attention to the role of purchasing power parity ppp price indexes from the international comparison project global inequality increased with the latest revision of the icp and this reduced the global poverty line relative to the us dollar the recent large increase of nearly half a billion poor people came from an inappropriate updating of the global poverty line not from the icp revisions even so ppp comparisons between widely different countries rest on weak theoretical and empirical foundations i argue for wider use of self reports from international monitoring surveys and for a global poverty line that is truly denominated in us dollars

endogenous objectives and the evaluation of targeting rules for monetary policy recent research in monetary economics has followed the advice of mccallum 1988 robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy carnegie rochester conference series on public policy 29 173 203 and investigated the robustness properties of monetary policy rules by evaluating them in a variety of models evaluation across models is typically based on an exogenously specified loss function however the theory on which many recent monetary policy models are based implies that changes in the structure of the model also have consequences for the policy objectives the central bank should pursue objectives are endogenous not exogenous to the model in this paper i investigate the impact of endogenous objectives on the evaluation of targeting rules for monetary policy r 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

a further look at flexibilities and elasticities relationships between price elasticities and price flexibilities are examined with emphasis on comparing sizes of difference between a directly estimated demand matrix and an inverted demand matrix results show that by using inverted elasticities to represent flexibilities or vice versa sizable measurement errors may be committed in agricultural policy and program analysis a directly estimated demand matrix should be used

israeli women entrepreneurs an examination of factors affecting performance abstract this article examines individual factors influencing performance of 200 israeli women owned businesses whereas research on women entrepreneurs is extensive in developed countries especially in the united states and europe there are comparatively few studies of performance of women owned businesses in non oecd countries there is evidence that social structures work family and organized social life vary among developed and developing countries as these relate to women entrepreneurs however these differences have not been considered as they may relate to theories explaining performance of women owned businesses the extent to which existing theories are useful in the context of non oecd countries is of increasing importance as women in these countries are assuming a greater role in enterprise creation and economic development as a result of radical geopolitical and economic policy changes worldwide in israel women suffer from occupational segregation and typically earn less money than their male counterparts despite a generally high level of education entrepreneurship offers a vehicle for israeli women to achieve economic parity approximately 5 1 of israeli women are self employed compared with 15 of israeli men of the 816 800 israeli working women this study is the first systematic investigation of performance variation among israeli women entrepreneurs thereby contributing to our understanding of women s entrepreneurship in non oecd countries five theoretical perspectives explain performance individual motivations and goals social learning entrepreneurial socialization network affiliation contacts and membership in organizations human capital level of education business skills and environmental influences location sectoral participation and sociopolitical variables each of these perspectives is associated with empirical work showing relationships between these individual level factors and performance three questions directed this study 1 which factors influence the performance of israeli women entrepreneurs 2 which factors explain any variance in performance among businesses established by israeli women entrepreneurs 3 how similar are these explanatory factors to those found in other countries a sample of 220 israeli women business owners responded to a survey instrument originally composed by hisrich and brush 1982 1985 that was translated into hebrew and adapted to the particular conditions of the israeli population a majority of the questionnaires was distributed at meetings of professional associates of women entrepreneurs and returned by mail but one fourth was distributed to women who were not members of any professional association no significant differences were found between the respondents who were members or non members of associations reliability testing showed alpha coefficients of 0 65 and higher for scaled questions which is acceptable for survey data statistical analyses including pearsons s correlations and multiple regressions examined relationships between factors identified from theoretical perspectives and performance which was measured by profitability income size number of employees and revenues demographic variables were examined and the age of the woman entrepreneur s children was significantly related to profitability p of the five theoretical perspectives results showed network affiliation motivation human capital and environmental factors affected different aspects of performance whereas social learning theory or existence of a role model had no significant effect on performance outcomes network affiliation was significantly related to profitability p motivations showed a strong relationship to performance factor analysis identified three basic groups of motives achievement independence and economic necessity similar to findings in other countries achievement motives were highly related to personal income whereas economic necessity was significantly related to both profitability and revenue analyses of human capital variables showed mixed results education level areas of study and previous entrepreneurial experience had no effect on previous experience the fact that this population was highly educated 51 had university degrees may have impacted on this result consistent with prior research findings previous experience in the industry had a direct and significant effect on performance p p p this study supports previous research from the united states and europe on women entrepreneurs which found that performance is related to previous industry experience business skills and achievement motivation however the differential effects of network affiliations was significantly more important for women entrepreneurs in israel affiliation with a single network was highly related to profitability whereas involvement in multiple networks was detrimental to both revenues and the number of employees these findings imply that to perform well israeli women entrepreneurs should gain related industry experience develop business skills and seek to achieve success most importantly commitment to a single network for support and advice is better than a loose alignment with many support groups this research has implications for studies of women entrepreneurs in other non oecd as well as developing countries in countries such as russia or china anecdotal evidence shows self employment offers women an opportunity to improve their economic status as more capitalistic policies are adopted the extent to which individual factors found important in this study such as business skills motivations previous industry experience and network affiliation affect performance in these countries is a topic for future investigation this study suggests that individual factors affect performance differentially as a consequence of variations in social structures work organized social life and family future research should explore the extent to which this is the case examination of aspects of organizational strategies and government policies as these influence performance is another topic for future study

how forward looking is optimal monetary policy we calculate optimal monetary policy rules for several variants of a simple optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism with sticky prices and or wages we show that robustly optimal rules can be represented by interest rate feedback rules that generalize the celebrated proposal of taylor 1993 optimal rules however require that the current interest rate operating target depend positively on the recent past level of the operating target and its recent rate of increase in a way that is characteristic of estimated central bank reaction functions but not of taylor s proposal we furthermore find that a robustly optimal policy rule is almost inevitably an implicit rule that requires the central bank to use a structural model to project the economy s evolution under the contemplated policy action however calibrated examples suggest that optimal rules place less weight on projections of inflation or output many quarters in the future than do rules often discussed in the literature on inflation targeting or in the current practice of inflation forecast targeting central banks

agency relationships in family firms theory and evidence does owner management necessarily eliminate the agency costs of ownership drawing on agency literature and on the economic theory of the household we argue that private ownership and owner management expose privately held owner managed firms to agency threats ignored by jensen s and meckling s 1976 agency model private ownership and owner management not only reduce the effectiveness of external control mechanisms they also expose firms to a self control problem created by incentives that cause owners to take actions which harm themselves as well as those around them jensen 1994 p 43 thus shareholders have incentive to invest resources in curbing both managerialand owner opportunism we extend this thesis to the domain of the family firm after developing hypotheses which describe how family dynamics and specifically altruism exacerbate agency problems experienced by these privately held owner managed firms we use data obtained from a large scale survey of family businesses to field test our hypotheses and find evidence which suggests support for our proposed theory finally we discuss the implications of our theory for research on family and other types of privately held owner managed firms

gaitl a generalised version of the almost ideal and translog demand systems abstract ai and translog are popular models in empirical demand literature in this paper we present a generalised model gaitl which nests both and moreover the lewbel 1989 demand system estimation and statistical testing based on italian household data suggests rejection of both in favour of the gaitl also when demographic effects are considered

variations in r d investments of family and nonfamily firms behavioral agency and myopic loss aversion perspectives the behavioral agency model suggests that to preserve socioemotional wealth loss averse family firms usually invest less in r d than nonfamily firms however behavioral agency model predictions a

the pervasive effects of family on entrepreneurship toward a family embeddedness perspective families and businesses have often been treated as naturally separate institutions whereas we argue that they are inextricably intertwined long term changes in family composition and in the roles and relations of family members have produced families in north america that are growing smaller and losing many of their previous role relationships such transformations in the institution of the family have implications for the emergence of new business opportunities opportunity recognition business start up decisions and the resource mobilization process we suggest that entrepreneurship scholars would benefit from a family embeddedness perspective on new venture creation d 2003 elsevier science inc all rights reserved

trends in rankings of economics departments in the u s an update economics departments in the u s are ranked based on 1 the number of pages published in thirty six economics journals 2 publications in five of the top journals 3 output per faculty member and 4 an index of the concentration of research in a department evidence shows that the top twenty departments have generally retained their positions since the 1970s but rather large changes have occurred in departments ranked from 240 to 100 an economists hall of fame is developed listing the top fifty individual producers of research in the thirty six journal set and the top five journals

consequences of participant inattention with an application to carbon taxes for meat products despite widespread use in nonmarket valuation data quality remains an ongoing challenge for survey methods one key concern is whether participants attentively respond to survey questions or whether they exert less than full effort to determine the prevalence and consequences of inattention bias in surveys we estimate how meat demand varies across people who do and do not miss trap questions using a split sample design with discrete choice experiments for meat products we explore three different trap questions to determine how many potentially inattentive respondents are identified by each method we find that individuals who miss trap questions respond differently to the choice experiment than individuals who correctly answer the trap question inattention generates vastly different compensating variation estimates of a carbon tax ranging from 3 56 cents per meal choice for the least attentive to 6 13 cents per meal choice for the most attentive

remedying education evidence from two randomized experiments in india this paper presents the results of a two year randomized evaluation of a large scale remedial education program conducted in mumbai and vadodara india the remedial education program hires young women from the community to teach basic literacy and numeracy skills to children who reach standard three or four without having mastered these competencies the program implemented by a ngo in collaboration with the government is extremely cheap it cost 5 dollars per child per year and is easily replicable it has been implemented in 20 indian cities and reached tens of thousands of children we find the program to be very effective on average it increased learning by 0 15 standard deviations in the first year and 0 25 in the second year the gains are the largest for children at the bottom of the distribution children in the bottom third gain 0 2 standard deviations in the first year and 0 32 in the second year in math they gain 0 51 standard deviation in the second year the results are similar in the two grade levels and in the two cities at the margin extending this program would be up to 12 16 times more cost effective than hiring new teachers authors

examining the heterogeneity in calorie income elasticities a meta analysis abstract several studies conducted over the past three decades on calorie income relationship appear to give inconclusive results this paper reviews these studies and employs meta regression analysis to examine the potential publication bias in the calorie income elasticity as well as the impact of specific study attributes on the elasticities that have been reported in the empirical literature a total of 40 empirical studies which yielded 99 estimated elasticities were considered the results indicate the presence of publication bias in the reported elasticities besides the estimates revealed evidence of positive and significant empirical effect of income on calorie intake from all the studies that goes beyond publication bias study attributes such as ranking of the journal panel data used in the analysis whether expenditure was used as proxy for income year of primary survey sample size and numbers of the years of primary data were found to have statistically significant impacts on the reported calorie income elasticities in the literature

targeting the poor evidence from a field experiment in indonesia the brief summarizes the targeting the poor evidence from a field experiment in indonesia for the period december 2008 january 2009 this paper reports an experiment in 640 indonesian villages on three approaches to target the poor proxy means tests pmt where assets are used to predict consumption community targeting where villagers rank everyone from richest to poorest and a hybrid defining poverty based on ppp 2 per capita consumption community targeting and the hybrid perform somewhat worse in identifying the poor than pmt though not by enough to significantly affect poverty outcomes for a typical program elite capture does not explain these results instead communities appear to apply a different concept of poverty

gasoline demand revisited an international meta analysis of elasticities meta analysis is used to determine if there are factors that systematically affect price and income elasticity estimates in studies of gasoline demand four econometric models are estimated using long run and short run price and income elasticity estimates from previous studies as the dependent variables explanatory variables include functional form lag structure time span national setting estimation technique and other features of the model structure elasticity estimates are found to be sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of some measure of vehicle ownership static models appear to overestimate short run elasticities underestimate long run price elasticities but pick up the full long run income responsiveness there is variation in the elasticity of demand across countries especially in the short run and gasoline demand appears to be getting more price elastic and less income elastic over time

no news is good news stochastic parameters versus media coverage indices in demand models after food scares we develop a stochastic parameter approach to model the time varying impacts of food scares on consumption as an alternative to the inclusion of news coverage indices in the demand function we empirically test the methodology on data from four food scares the 1982 heptachlor milk contamination in oahu hawaii and the bovine spongiform encephalopathy and two escherichia coli scares on u s meat demand over the period 1993 9 results show that the inclusion of time varying parameters in demand models enables the capturing of the impact of food safety information and provides better short term forecasts

the economic lives of the poor in what turned out to be a rhetorical master move the 1990 world development report from the world bank defined the extremely poor people of the world as those who are currently living on no more than 1 per day per person measured at the 1985 purchasing power parity ppp exchange rate in 1993 the poverty line was updated to 1 08 per person per day at the 1993 ppp exchange rate which is the line we use in this paper poverty lines have always existed indeed 1 per day was chosen in part because of its proximity to the poverty lines used by many poor countries 1 however the 1 a day poverty line has come to dominate the conversations about poverty to a remarkable extent

the effect of entrepreneurial rhetoric on microlending investment an examination of the warm glow effect microlending provides a valuable alternative to traditional financing for entrepreneurs in impoverished countries drawing from theory on political rhetoric and the concept of warm glow giving we examine characteristics of entrepreneurial narratives that are related to how quickly entrepreneurs receive funding using a sample of 6051 narratives from entrepreneurs in developing countries we demonstrate that narratives higher in language indicating blame and present concern lead to more rapid funding while narratives higher in accomplishment tenacity and variety lead to slower funding our findings suggest that the presentation of investment profiles should be carefully managed to maximize funding likelihood

bias in estimating the almost ideal demand system with the stone index approximation this paper shows that the commonly used stone index approximation can bias the parameter estimates of the almost ideal demand system the bias mostly affects the price parameters and can be more serious when the budget share equations are estimated with individual household rather than aggregate data in the absence of strong substitution effects the price parameter bias can be largely corrected through simple reparameterization copyright 1993 by royal economic society

when institutional change outruns the change agent the contested terrain of entrepreneurial microfinance for those in poverty we argue that institutional change moves through stages punctuated by recurring attempts to formally redefine the boundaries and logics of organizational fields that institutional entrepreneurs initially establish with a grounded theory model we demonstrate that institutional change in microfinance started with dominant development logic shifted to market logic and got stuck in a conflict over regulatory logic we show how the role of the entrepreneur can change markedly over time while the institutional change process continues unabated we present institutional entrepreneurship as an evolving phenomenon and suggest that the interplay between institutional entrepreneurs and established organizational fields is highly nuanced

an inverse demand system for u s composite foods this article provides a theoretically consistent framework for estimating a complete price dependent demand system where the concept of distance function and its related substitution and scale effects are used the approach is applied to a u s demand system consisting of thirteen food and one nonfood categories

the developing world is poorer than we thought but no less successful in the fight against poverty a new data set on national poverty lines is combined with new price data and almost 700 household surveys to estimate absolute poverty measures for the developing world we find that 25 of the population lived in poverty in 2005 as judged by what poverty typically means in the world s poorest countries this is higher than past estimates substantial overall progress is still indicated the corresponding poverty rate was 52 in 1981 but progress was very uneven across regions the trends over time and regional profile are robust to various changes in methodology though precise counts are more sensitive

the paradigm of agricultural efficiency and its implication on food security in africa what does meta analysis reveal summary the study investigates whether african agricultural efficiency levels have been improving or not and what drives them over the years based on 442 frontier studies using meta regression analysis the results show that the mean efficiency estimates from studies decrease significantly as year of survey in the primary study increases also studies published in journals with parametric specification and with panel data produced significantly higher efficiency estimates while those with a focus on grain crops reported significantly lower efficiency estimates other results show that education followed by experience extension and credit are the major drivers of agricultural efficiency levels in africa

bric by bric the role of the family household in sustaining a venture in impoverished indian slums we advance understanding of the embedded role of the family household in governing firm performance in an impoverished setting drawing on bricolage theory which articulates how individuals make do with resources at hand we suggest that family household diversity facilitates creativity while family household shared business experience facilitates routinization while initially performance enhancing unfettered creativity and overroutinization have detrimental effects and thus expect the highest levels of performance to occur at moderate levels of family household diversity and shared business experience we find general support for our hypotheses using a large sample of firms and families in impoverished indian households

inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design this paper examines the performance of optimised interest rate rules when there is uncertainty about a key determinant of the monetary transmission mechanism namely the degree of persistence characterising the inflation process the paper focuses on the euro area and utilises two variants of an estimated small scale macroeconomic model featuring distinct types of staggered contracts specifications which induce quite different degrees of inflation persistence the paper shows that a cautious monetary policy maker is well advised to design and implement interest rate policies under the assumption that inflation persistence is high when there is considerable uncertainty about the prevailing degree of inflation persistence such policies are characterised by a relatively aggressive response to inflation developments and exhibit a substantial degree of inertia

belief in a just world and redistributive politics international surveys reveal wide differences between the views held in different countries concerning the causes of wealth or poverty and the extent to which people are responsible for their own fate at the same time social ethnographies and experiments by psychologists demonstrate individuals recurrent struggle with cognitive dissonance as they seek to maintain and pass on to their children a view of the world where effort ultimately pays off and everyone gets their just deserts this paper offers a model that helps explain i why most people feel such a need to believe in a just world ii why this need and therefore the prevalence of the belief varies considerably across countries iii the implications of this phenomenon for international differences in political ideology levels of redistribution labor supply aggregate income and popular perceptions of the poor the model shows in particular how complementarities arise endogenously between individuals desired beliefs or ideological choices resulting in two equilibria a first american equilibrium is characterized by a high prevalence of just world beliefs among the population and relatively laissez faire policies the other european equilibrium is characterized by more pessimism about the role of effort in economic outcomes and a more extensive welfare state more generally the paper develops a theory of collective beliefs and motivated cognitions including those concerning money consumption and happiness as well as religion

does the classic microfinance model discourage entrepreneurship among the poor experimental evidence from india do the repayment requirements of the classic microfinance contract inhibit investment in high return but illiquid business opportunities among the poor using a field experiment we compare the classic contract which requires that repayment begin immediately after loan disbursement to a contract that includes a two month grace period the provision of a grace period increased short run business investment and long run profits but also default rates the results thus indicate that debt contracts that require early repayment discourage illiquid risky investment and thereby limit the potential impact of microfinance on microenterprise growth and household poverty jel a21 g32 i32 l25 l26 o15 o16

the optimal perception of inflation persistence is zero this study shows that in an economy with inflation persistence it is always welfare improving for a central bank that operates under discretion to behave as if there were no inflation persistence under reasonable assumptions about inflation persistence all of the inefficiency associated with discretionary policymaking is then removed

failure or voluntary exit reassessing the female underperformance hypothesis abstract we reevaluate the female underperformance hypothesis by challenging the assumption that female owned ventures are more likely to fail instead of equating exit with failure we draw on exit literature and feminist theories to argue that female entrepreneurs are actually more likely than males to exit voluntarily we argue for further gender differences by using an even more fine grained conceptualization of entrepreneurial exit failure exit for personal reasons and exit for other professional financial opportunities post hoc analyses also point to within gender heterogeneity depending on family status a sample probe of 219 spanish entrepreneurs who had exited their business supports our overall reasoning

bankers at the gate microfinance and the high cost of borrowed logics in this paper we examine how the interaction between influences of commercial banking and poverty alleviation shaped the evolution of modern microfinance using institutional theory as a lens we observe that the commercial banking logic increasingly displaced the microfinance field s foundational poverty alleviation and development principles over time we argue that this process of displacement can occur inadvertently as organizations that embody multiple logics draw disproportionately on only one of those logics when developing legitimating accounts of their activity to stakeholders furthermore we introduce the concept of permeability the extent to which the elements of a logic are ambiguous and loosely coupled to explain why some logics may be more or less open to the influence of other logics we conclude by discussing implications for entrepreneurship and poverty alleviation more generally

cross section versus time series income elasticities of canadian consumption abstract five canadian surveys are used to compute cross section and time series income elasticities within pseudo panel elasticities differ significantly from between elasticities for most consumptions thus income elasticities computed using cross section data cannot be used to predict changes in consumption over time

the world distribution of income falling poverty and convergence period we estimate the world distribution of income by integrating individual income distributions for 138 countries between 1970 and 2000 country distributions are constructed by combining national accounts gdp per capita to anchor the mean with survey data to pin down the dispersion poverty rates and head counts are reported for four specific poverty lines rates in 2000 were between one third and one half of what they were in 1970 for all four lines there were between 250 and 500 million fewer poor in 2000 than in 1970 we estimate eight indexes of income inequality implied by our world distribution of income all of them show reductions in global inequality during the 1980s and 1990s

children s resources in collective households identification estimation and an application to child poverty in malawi children s resources matter but they are hard to identify because consumption is typically mea sured at the household level modern collective household models permit some identication of indi vidual household member resources but these models typically either ignore children or treat them as attributes of adults we propose a collective household model in which children are people with their own utility functions possibly assigned to them by parents extending the frameworks of browning chiappori and lewbel 2007 and lewbel and pendakur 2008 we show identication of children s resource shares within households we invoke semiparametric restrictions on individual preferences and use data on the household level consumption of assignable private goods to achieve identication of each individual s resource share within the household we show this without being able to observe consumption by individual household members of goods that are partly or wholly shared goods within the household further we obtain identication using only engel curves and so do not require ob served price variation in the data we estimate our model using data from malawi andnd that as the number of children in a household grows women s resource shares fall and children s resource shares rise and men s resource shares are basically unchanged we alsond evidence of gender bias against girls and observe that the resource shares of mothers and children are increasing in the education level of the mother finally we use our estimates to construct poverty indices at the person level andnd that per capita poverty indices understate the incidence of child poverty in malawi

a cross section demand analysis of spanish provincial food consumption i follow the differential approach in building three demand models of spanish cross province food consumption patterns the models include quadratic income terms for estimating the widely varying income responses one expects from cross section data the proposed models are also flexible in permitting alternative levels of aggregation across goods a nonnested testing procedure is used to identify the best model both the flexibility of the quadratic income term and the flexibility of alternative aggregation levels are important in the analysis of spanish food consumption patterns

entrepreneurship as a solution to poverty individuals living in poverty remain a critical issue this special issue focuses on how entrepreneurship can help to solve such poverty rather than viewing those in poverty as a market for goods the solution lies in understanding how to help those living in poverty create their own businesses ultimately entrepreneurship among those in poverty will create a long lasting solution to their poverty herein we initially examine the extant knowledge about entrepreneurship we then examine where future research on this important topic should move finally we introduce the five articles that make up this special issue these five articles came from the initial 71 submissions and enhance our knowledge about entrepreneurship as a pathway to reducing poverty

entrepreneurship in and around institutional voids a case study from bangladesh abstract in many developing countries those living in poverty are unable to participate in markets due to the weakness or complete absence of supportive institutions this study examines in microcosm such institutional voids and illustrates the activities of an entrepreneurial actor in rural bangladesh aimed at addressing them the findings enable us to better understand why institutional voids originate and to unpack institutional processes in a setting characterized by extreme resource constraints and an institutional fabric that is rich but often at odds with market development we depict the crafting of new institutional arrangements as an ongoing process of bricolage and unveil its political nature as well as its potentially negative consequences

capital market liberalization economic growth and instability summary this paper reviews briefly the arguments for capital market liberalization and identifies their theoretical and empirical weaknesses this provides the foundations for the argument for intervention in short term capital flows the paper concludes with a brief discussion of the various ways in which such interventions may be implemented 2000 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

meat meets meta a quantitative review of the price elasticity of meat the price elasticity of meat has been estimated in numerous studies that utilize a variety of disparate modeling procedures in light of differences in the literature a meta analysis is performed to assess the sensitivity of the meat price elasticity to a number of characteristics including the type of meat specification of demand nature of data estimation method characteristics of the publication outlet and location of demand the results from estimating linear and box cox meta regressions coupled with different panel data treatments reveal that these characteristics have differing influence on the reported price elasticity

price and income elasticities of residential water demand a meta analysis this article presents a meta analysis of variations in price and income elasticities of residential water demand meta analysis constitutes an adequate tool to synthesize research results by means of an analysis of the variation in empirical estimates reported in the literature we link the variation in estimated elasticities to differences in theoretical microeconomic choice approaches differences in spatial and temporal dynamics as well as differences in research design of the underlying studies the occurrence of increasing or decreasing block rate systems turns out to be important with respect to price elasticities the use of the discrete continuous choice approach is relevant in explaining observed differences

inflation targeting rules history dependent or forward looking abstract this note discusses the inflation targeting strategy if price setting gives rise to a hybrid phillips curve the strategy is inverted relative to private sector pricing behavior if private sector price setting is backward looking policy should be forward looking and vice versa

what is wrong with taylor rules using judgment in monetary policy through targeting rules it is argued that inflation targeting is best understood as a commitment to a targeting rule rather than an instrument rule e ither ageneral targeting rule explicit objectives for monetary policy or a specific targeting rule a criterion for the forecasts of the target variables to be fulfilled essentially the equality of the marginal rates of transformation and substitution between the target variables targeting rules allow the use of judgment and extramodel information are more robust and easier to verify than optimal instrument rules and they can nevertheless bring the economy close to the socially optimal equilibrium

giffen behavior and subsistence consumption this paper provides the first real world evidence of giffen behavior i e upward sloping demand subsidizing the prices of dietary staples for extremely poor households in two provinces of china we find strong evidence of giffen behavior for rice in hunan and weaker evidence for wheat in gansu the data provide new insight into the consumption behavior of the poor who act as though maximizing utility subject to subsistence concerns we find that their elasticity of demand depends significantly and nonlinearly on the severity of their poverty understanding this heterogeneity is important for the effective design of welfare programs for the poor jel d12 012

tying odysseus to the mast evidence from a commitment savings product in the philippines we designed a commitment savings product for a philippine bank and implemented it using a randomized control methodology the savings product was intended for individuals who want to commit now to restrict access to their savings and who were sophisticated enough to engage in such a mechanism we conducted a baseline survey on 1777 existing or former clients of a bank one month later we offered the commitment product to a randomly chosen subset of 710 clients 202 28 4 percent accepted the offer and opened the account in the baseline survey we asked hypothetical time discounting questions women who exhibited a lower discount rate for future relative to current trade offs and hence potentially have a preference for commitment were indeed significantly more likely to open the commitment savings account after twelve months average savings balances increased by 81 percentage points for those clients assigned to the treatment group relative to those assigned to the control group we conclude that the savings response represents a lasting change in savings and not merely a short term response to a new product

microlending in emerging economies building a new line of inquiry from the ground up the world s poor may be the last great frontier in international business international microlenders are increasingly tapping into this emerging opportunity by extending small business loans to millions of borrowers however to date there is very limited understanding of this domain from an international business perspective using qualitative case studies developed in guatemala and the dominican republic we probe the causes and consequences of high performance and business failure for microloan recipients the analysis of these cases led to the development of six testable propositions focused on the behavior of borrowers whose loans populate the portfolios of international microlenders our research aims to lay a foundation in international business for future research on microlending

income distribution and aggregation disaggregation biases in the measurement of consumer demand elasticities abstract we investigate the issue of aggregation and disaggregation biases in demand elasticities drawing on income distribution data for seven countries we calculate the likely range of differences between elasticities evaluated at average income and corresponding aggregate average elasticities

what do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data the aim of this paper is to assess the importance of using micro level data in the econometric analysis of consumer demand to do this we utilize a time series of repeated cross sections covering some 4 000 households in each of 15 years employing a number of different aggregation procedures we conclude that aggregate data alone are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of structural price and income coefficients however once certain aggregation factors as well as trend and seasonal components are included an aggregate model is not necessarily outperformed across all demand equations in terms of forecasting ability jel d12 c52 c31 the purpose of this paper is to develop a complete consumer demand system based on a time series of individual household data and to use it to measure the biases introduced into the study of consumer de mand behavior when aggregate data are used in place of the appropriate microeco nomic data we assess the suitability of ag gregate data through the impact on income and price elasticities and by evaluating the ability of both micro and aggregate based models to forecast aggregate consumer de mand the biases introduced by the use of aggregate data depend upon the way that household characteristics interact with in come and price effects and on departures of demand systems from linearity we explore the structure of microeconomic demand sys tems and the role of household characteris tics in the behavior of consumer demand both for the light this may shed on the pattern of future demands and for the im plications this behavior has for issues of aggregation consumer demand patterns typically found in micro data sets vary considerably across households with different household characteristics and with different levels of income we model this variability by making intercept and slope parameters in the budget share equations of our demand sys tem depend on household characteristics and by allowing for nonlinear total log expenditure terms in fact in theory consistent demand systems it is total ex penditure rather than disposable income that is allocated across goods we find that this general framework leads to a well specified data coherent demand system which is a quadratic extension of the popu lar almost ideal model of angus s deaton and john muellbauer 1980 the micro level estimates are shown to be sensitive to the treatment of endogeneity of total expen diture and to the specification of interaction terms with household characteristics in ad dition this specification is also shown to possess many attractive features for the evaluation of aggregate models

why don t we see poverty convergence average living standards are converging among developing countries and faster growing economies see more progress against poverty yet we do not find poverty convergence countries starting with higher poverty rates do not see higher proportionate rates of poverty reduction the paper tries to explain why analysis of a new dataset suggests that at given mean consumption high initial poverty has an adverse effect on consumption growth and also makes growth less poverty reducing thus for many poor countries the growth advantage of starting out with a low mean is lost due to a high incidence of poverty jel d63 i31 i32 o15

the silence of the lambdas a test of the almost ideal and rotterdam models during the past decade the linear approximate la almost ideal demand system and the rotterdam model have been adopted by agricultural economists as the demand systems of choice in most applications the apparent explanation is that the two models are both second order locally flexible and compatible with demand theory they have identical data requirements and are equally parsimonious with respect to parameters and both are linear in the parameters while the two models are thus equally attractive in most respects and indeed appear very similar in structure they lead to different results in some applications this article develops a test of each against the other in an illustrative application to u s meat demand the almost ideal model is rejected while the rotterdam model is not

quadratic engel curves and consumer demand this paper presents a model of consumer demand that is consistent with the observed expenditure patterns of individual consumers in a long time series of expenditure surveys and is also able to provide a detailed welfare analysis of shifts in relative prices a nonparametric analysis of consumer expenditure patterns suggests that engel curves require quadratic terms in the logarithm of expenditure while popular models of demand such as the translog or the almost ideal demand systems do allow flexible price responses within a theoretically coherent structure they have expenditure share engel curves that are linear in the logarithm of total expenditure we derive the complete class of integrable quadratic logarithmic expenditure share systems a specification from this class is estimated on a large pooled data set of u k households models that fail to account for engel curvature are found ro generate important distortions in the patterns of welfare losses associated with a tax increase

poverty and the varieties of entrepreneurship in the pursuit of prosperity abstract in this paper we revisit the entrepreneurship and poverty relationship under a eudaimonic perspective that brings together conversion factors and future prosperity expectations based on an fsqca of changes in life circumstances of 166 farm households in rural kenya we explore how different combinations of conversion factors enable distinct forms of entrepreneuring in the pursuit of prosperity results show that strong entrepreneurship enabled future prosperity expectations result from three combinations of enabling conversion factors shaping up three varieties of entrepreneurial endeavors family frugal individual market and family inwards which show a much more diverse and counterintuitive reality our research contributes to literature by revealing and theorizing on a split picture portraying the many ways in which farmers acting as everyday entrepreneurs exploit real opportunities in seemingly identical impoverished communities it also reveals a central disconnect between entrepreneurship life satisfaction and financial improvements when assessed against expectations of future prosperity in doing so this paper responds to calls for a better understanding of the processes whereby entrepreneurship can distinctively improve current and future life circumstances and the many ways in which this may happen