book review feature public policy in an uncertain world by charles f manski cambridge ma harvard university press 2013 pp 224 39 95 isbn 978 0674066892

the effect of fair trade affiliation on child schooling evidence from a sample of chilean honey producers we evaluate the impact of fair trade ft affiliation on child schooling within a sample of chilean honey producers with a retrospective panel data approach from a theoretical point of view we argue that ft should have a positive effect on child schooling since it generates a short run pure income effect together with a medium run productivity effect on both adult and child wages on the other hand because of the higher productivity generated by the medium run effect the opportunity cost of child education increases if they work with their parents the direction of the impact of ft affiliation on child schooling is therefore uncertain and requires empirical testing our econometric findings document a positive and significant impact of affiliation years on child schooling after controlling for endogeneity and heterogeneity between the treatment and control sample

sustainability and the intergenerational distribution of natural resource entitlements abstract the paper describes an olg economy with a single exhaustible resource that has amenity value the steady states of this economy form a continuum implying path dependency we compare three policy scenarios first a zero extraction policy of enforced conservation that avoids environmental degradation possibly at the expense of intertemporal efficiency second a grandfathering policy that endows the present generations with all resources and that ensures efficiency but cannot prevent a persistent decline in lifetime utility from one generation to the next third a trust fund policy where future generations receive claims for the natural resource of the three only the trust fund ensures efficiency and protects welfare of all generations

the health returns of education policies from preschool to high school and beyond the accessibility of quality schools and educational resources for children are key engines of upward mobility in the united states holding the potential to break the cycle of poverty from one generation to the next inequalities in economic status tend to be correlated across generations in part because of intergenerational correlations in health and education rucker c johnson 2009 residential segregation by race and class that leads to unequal access to quality schools is often cited as a culprit in perpetuating inequality in attainment outcomes over the past four decades three major government interventions have had substantial impacts on the provision of school resources and have narrowed black white differences in access to dimensions of school quality i court mandated school desegregation ii state legislation and legal action aimed to change the distribution and level of school funding and iii the expansion of targeted preschool programs for disadvantaged children through head start court ordered school desegregation has been described as the most controversial and ambitious social experiment of the past 50 years human capital health outcomes and inequality

longer term effects of head start specially collected data on adults in the panel study of income dynamics are used to provide evidence on the longer term effects of head start an early intervention program for poor preschool age children whites who attended head start are relative to their siblings who did not significantly more likely to complete high school attend college and possibly have higher earnings in their early twenties african americans who participated in head start are less likely to have been booked or charged with a crime there is some evidence of positive spillovers from older head start children to their younger siblings language en

evaluating the effects of childcare policies on children s cognitive development and maternal labor supply to explore the role of childcare policies in the development of early cognitive skills this paper jointly estimates a cognitive achievement production function and a dynamic discrete choice model of maternal labor supply and childcare decisions using counter actuals from the model i investigate how the designs of two childcare programs head start and childcare subsidies affect the formation of cognitive skills through maternal work and childcare decisions the results suggest large impacts on cognitive skills from expanding head start to current noneligibles and negligible impacts of subsidies on cognitive skills of current eligibles abstract from author

the determinants of earnings a behavioral approach we survey the determinants of earnings and propose a framework for understanding labor market success we suggest that the advantages of the children of successful parents go considerably beyond the benefits of superior education the inheritance of wealth or the genetic inheritance of cognitive ability we suggest that noncognitive personality variables such as attitudes towards risk ability to adapt to new economic conditions hard work and the rate of time preference affect both earning and the transmission of economic status across generations

maternal labor supply and the availability of public pre k evidence from the introduction of prekindergarten into american public schools in the 1980s and 1990s many states began to provide funding for prekindergarten programs for the first time this paper takes advantage of the staggered timing in program funding to investigate the effect that increased availability of prekindergarten programs has on the labor supply of mothers with four year olds i find that mothers with a four year old and no younger children were significantly more likely to be in the labor force and employed once prekindergarten became available and that these effects were largest for single low educated mothers and married college educated mothers mothers with a four year old and other younger children were also significantly more likely to be in the labor force and employed although these effects were smaller in magnitude and not significant for specific subpopulations

on the life cycle metaphor where ecology and economics diverge abstract there is an attractive analogy between nature and industry based on the similarity of natural functions and certain industrial activities for instance animals ingest eat and digest food finally there are metabolic wastes firms are analogous to organisms in several respects insofar as they consume material resources process digest them and produce output products and excrete wastes firms like organisms also compete with each other for resources curiously enough one of the apparent differences between natural and man made systems is actually not one like the industrial system the natural system does not recycle everything however there are at least four real and important differences between the biosphere ecology and the technosphere economy first there is no primary producer in the economic system analogous to what photosynthesizers play in the biosphere inputs to the economy are mostly natural resources capital services and labor second in the economic system output is a heterogeneous mix of manufactured products and services labor in economics is an input but not an output the economic system recycles much less than the ecological system but utilizes a far greater suite of elements in the biosphere there are no products as such growth is tantamount to accumulation of embodied solar exergy in the form of cellulose sugars lipids and proteins the biosphere produces only wastes and more of itself plus dead matter third in the biosphere there are no markets there is no medium of exchange like money and there is nothing analogous to paid labor exchanges are involuntary i e by predation parasitism or theft fourth evolution in nature is driven by differentiation by random mutations of the genome and darwinian selection based on reproductive success in economics differentiation is based on discovery invention and innovation by intelligent economic agents and selection is based on competition at the individual or firm level either way the economic system is not closely analogous to an ecosystem attempts to use ecological concepts in an economic context are often misleading and unjustified the paper discusses the implications of the eco eco mismatch for resource accounting and life cycle analysis

sixty years after the magic carpet ride the long run effect of the early childhood environment on social and economic outcomes this paper estimates the effect of the early childhood environment on a large array of social and economic outcomes lasting almost 60 years to do this we exploit variation in the living conditions experienced by yemenite children after being airlifted to israel in 1949 we find that children who were placed in a more modern environment i e with better sanitary and infrastructure conditions were more likely to obtain higher education marry at an older age have fewer children and work at age 55 they were also more likely to be assimilated into israeli society to be less religious and have more worldly tastes in music and food however these effects are found mainly for women and not for men we also find an effect on the next generation children who lived in a better environment grew up to have children with more education

maternal labour supply and childhood obesity in canada evidence from the nlscy this paper investigates the socioeconomic factors affecting childhood overweight and obesity in canada using data from the national longitudinal survey of children and youth in particular i attempt to address the issue of whether an increase in the mother s work intensity is associated with an increase in the risk of the child s becoming overweight or obese i also attempt to evaluate the causality of this relationship and the mechanisms that might facilitate this link the results suggest that an increase in the mother s work intensity when she first returned to work in the period after the child s birth and before the child started school is associated with an increase in the risk of the child s becoming overweight or obese later in childhood conditional on the mother returning to work in the period between the child s birth and the start of school for the child a 10 hour increase in the number of hours worked per week when the mother first returned to work is associated with an increase in the probability that the child later becomes overweight or obese that is in the range of 2 5 to 4 percentage points ce memoire analyse les facteurs socio economiques qui affectent l exces de poids et l obesite des enfants au canada a l aide des donnees de l elnej en particulier on se demande si un accroissement de l intensite de travail de la mere est associea l accroissement de poids et a l obesite de l enfant on etudie le lien de causalite et les mecanismes qui sous tendent ce lien les resultats montrent qu un accroissement de l intensite de travail de la mere quand elle retourne au travail dans la periode apres la naissance de l enfant et avant qu il ne commence ses classes est associea la probabilite d exces de poids et d obesite plus tard un accroissement de 10 heures dans le nombre d heures travaillees par semaine est associea une probabilite de 2 5 a 4 points de pourcentage que l enfant va avoir des problemes de poids ou d obesite

investing in health the long term impact of head start on smoking i introduction there is a strong evidence that early childhood socioeconomic conditions have long term economic consequences reinforcing and sustaining disparities over the lifecourse 1 this observation provides a compelling rationale for public investments targeted toward disadvantaged children to expand opportunities and break the cycle of poverty head start is the principal federally funded program through which the united states invests directly in the human capital of disadvantaged preschool children since its inception in 1965 as part of president lyndon johnson s war on poverty head start has provided services to more than 23 million preschool children in 2005 there were more than 900 000 children enrolled in the program at a total cost of 6 8 billion office of head start 2006a to achieve its overall goal of increasing the school readiness of participants head start provides a comprehensive set of services including education health nutritional and social services to participants and their families research has shown that head start has positive impacts on participants human capital both in childhood and in adulthood 2 in recent years questions have arisen about the relative effectiveness of head start and whether it should be continued in its present form u s department of health and human services 2003 much of the debate has centered on the magnitude and persistence of the cognitive achievements of head start participants however given the link between education and health 3 and the comprehensive nature of head start with substantial health components one could reasonably expect it to have a favorable impact on participants health as well as education if significant health effects were found to persist into adulthood this in itself could alter the evaluation of head start and have important implications for the associated policy debate smoking is the leading preventable cause of mortality in the united states mokdad et al 2004 it is linked to an extensive list of diseases chaloupka and warner 2000 and imposes large economic costs on society centers for disease control and prevention 2002 tobacco use generally begins before individuals graduate high school and as an addictive behavior youth smoking is linked to adult smoking u s department of health and human services 1994 adolescents from low socioeconomic status households with low academic achievement are more likely to use tobacco products u s department of health and human services 1994 thus comprehensive development programs targeted toward disadvantaged youths that are designed to improve child outcomes have the potential to influence smoking improve health over the lifecourse and reduce the social costs from smoking suggestive evidence that head start might influence the smoking behavior of participants comes from evaluations of other preschool programs that targeted low income children participants in both the carolina abecedarian preschool program and the high scope perry preschool program were much less likely to smoke as adults barnett and masse 2007 belfield et al 2006 in this article we assess the impact of head start participation on adult smoking behavior using data from the panel study of income dynamics psid and its supplements on early childhood education and health we examine the cohort of adults above age 21 in 1999 whose age is low enough to have potentially participated in a head start program following currie and thomas 1995 and garces thomas and currie 2002 we employ a sibling based model to control for unobservable family characteristics that may affect smoking or the decision to participate in head start our results show that head start participation significantly influences smoking related behavior we estimate that if head start participants had not enrolled in the program these individuals would be approximately 20 percentage points more likely to smoke cigarettes beyond age 25

the rate of return to the high scope perry preschool program abstract this paper estimates the rate of return to the highscope perry preschool program an early intervention program targeted toward disadvantaged african american youth estimates of the rate of return to the perry program are widely cited to support the claim of substantial economic benefits from preschool education programs previous studies of the rate of return to this program ignore the compromises that occurred in the randomization protocol they do not report standard errors the rates of return estimated in this paper account for these factors we conduct an extensive analysis of sensitivity to alternative plausible assumptions estimated annual social rates of return generally fall between 7 and 10 with most estimates substantially lower than those previously reported in the literature however returns are generally statistically significantly different from zero for both males and females and are above the historical return on equity estimated benefit to cost ratios support this conclusion

extended families and child well being studies of household behavior have established the distribution of resources among household members predicts spending and savings patterns however there is a paucity of evidence on the relationship between the well being of individual family members and the distribution of resources within an extended family including non co resident family members given the central role the family plays in many models of economic behavior this is an important gap in the literature using rich longitudinal survey data from the indonesia family life survey ifls evidence is presented on the relationship between three measures of health and education related human capital of children and the distribution of resources among extended family members ifls is ideally suited for this research since the survey collects detailed information about income and wealth from both coresident and non co resident family members the empirical model is founded on a natural extension of the collective model of household decision making chiappori 1988 1992 to the extended family the model is particularly appealing in this context because it places few restrictions on preferences of individual family members and does not specify a specific bargaining mechanism that underlies negotiations the collective model yields empirical tests of whether the behavior of family members is pareto efficient a special case of the model allows all family members to be completely altruistic which is observationally equivalent to a unitary model of family behavior that special case is rejected by the data however the restrictions of the efficient model are not rejected indicating that non co resident family members are able to co ordinate allocation decisions with respect to child human capital investments in such a way as to make no family member better off without another member being worse off

children s schooling and parents behavior evidence from the head start impact study abstract parents may have important effects on their children but little work in economics explores whether children s schooling opportunities crowd out or encourage parents investment in children we analyze data from the head start impact study which granted randomly chosen preschool aged children the opportunity to attend head start we find that head start causes a substantial increase in parents involvement with their children such as time spent reading to children math activities or days spent with children by fathers who do not live with their children both during and after the period when their children are potentially enrolled in head start

teachers pay for performance in the long run the dynamic pattern of treatment effects on students educational and labour market outcomes in adulthood this paper examines the dynamic effects of a teachers pay for performance experiment on long term outcomes at adulthood the program led to a gradual increase in university education of the treated high school students reaching an increase of 0 25 years of schooling by age 28 30 the effects on employment and earnings were initially negative coinciding with a higher rate of enrollment in university but became positive and significant with time these gains are largely mediated by the positive effect of the program on several high school outcomes including quantitative and qualitative gains in the high stakes matriculation exams

worker absence and productivity evidence from teaching a significant amount of work time is lost each year due to worker absence but evidence on the productivity losses from absenteeism remains scant due to difficulties with identification we use uniquely detailed data on the timing duration and cause of absences among teachers to address many of the potential biases from the endogeneity of worker absence our analysis indicates that worker absences have large negative impacts the expected loss in daily productivity from employing a temporary substitute is on par with replacing a regular worker of average productivity with one at the 10th 20th percentile of productivity

path dependence in a ramsey model with resource amenities and limited regeneration this paper studies a ramsey optimal control economy with one consumer good extended to include several non renewable resources with amenity value the steady state equilibria of this economy are shown to form a continuum selection of the steady state to which the economy converges depends on the initial resource stocks hence unlike the usual ramsey models our model exhibits path dependency and postponement in the introduction of resource e ciency policies has long term e ects if the resource is renewable with a limited regeneration function the continuum becomes a turnpike that is optimal paths move along it towards the unique steady state the results also hold when there are several consumers 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

giving children a better start preschool attendance and school age profiles this brief summarizes the giving children a better start preschool attendance and school age profiles in uruguay for the period 1995 the author study the effect of pre primary education on children s subsequent school outcomes by exploiting a unique feature of the uruguayan household survey ech that collects retrospective information on preschool attendance in the context of a rapid expansion in the supply of pre primary places using a within household estimator we find small gains from preschool attendance at early ages that get magnified as children grow up by age 15 treated children have accumulated 0 8 extra years of education and are 27 percentage points more likely to be in school compared to their untreated siblings instrumental variables estimates that attempt to control for non random selection of siblings into preschool lead to similar results pre primary education appears as a successful and cost effective policy to prevent early grade failure and its long lasting consequences in low income countries

efficiency of conservationist measures an optimist viewpoint abstract we consider an economy with a consumer good capital a natural resource that provides amenity values and heterogeneous overlapping generations we compare a benchmark grandfathering policy that ensures efficiency through privatization with a policy of enforced resource conservation it is shown that i conservationist measures do not cause any pareto inefficiency irrespective of whether they pass a cost benefit test moreover it is shown that ii there exist pareto optimal allocations that can only be reached through resource conservation and not through competitive markets irrespective of compensating income transfers finally iii equivalence is demonstrated between strict resource conservation and non dictatorship of the present generations over future generations as formalized in chichilnisky s sustainable welfare function the results are shown to hold in both a first best and a second best setting

does head start help hispanic children abstract poor educational attainment is a persistent problem among us hispanic children relative to non hispanics many of these children are immigrants and or come from households that use a minority language in the home this paper examines the effects of participation in a government sponsored preschool program called head start on these children we find that large and significant benefits accrue to head start children when we compare them to siblings who did not participate in the program on average head start closes at least 1 4 of the gap in test scores between hispanic children and non hispanic white children and 2 3 of the gap in the probability of grade repetition however we find that the benefits of head start are not evenly distributed across sub groups

the effects of ageing and an environmental trust fund in an overlapping generations model on carbon emission reductions most currently employed integrated assessment models for climate change are of a dynastic nature they employ the ramsey rule linking the interest rate economic growth and the rate of pure time preference this paper argues that although a dynastic framework might be convenient for economic analysis it is restrictive and can be misleading overlapping generations models which do not employ the ramsey rule are more flexible and may give results different from those derived from dynastic models with the integrated assessment model alice 2 0 it is shown how various assumptions on demographic change and public institutions can affect the interest rate thereby influencing the efficient greenhouse gas emission reductions it is concluded that dynastic integrated assessment models are in many respects inappropriate for providing policy makers with quantitative figures about the costs of carbon dioxide emissions and their desirable reduction levels 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

worms at work long run impacts of a child health investment this study estimates long run impacts of a child health investment exploiting community wide experimental variation in school based deworming the program increased labor supply among men and education among women with accompanying shifts in labor market specialization ten years after deworming treatment men who were eligible as boys stay enrolled for more years of primary school work 17 more hours each week spend more time in nonagricultural self employment are more likely to hold manufacturing jobs and miss one fewer meal per week women who were in treatment schools as girls are approximately one quarter more likely to have attended secondary school halving the gender gap they reallocate time from traditional agriculture into cash crops and nonagricultural self employment we estimate a conservative annualized financial internal rate of return to deworming of 32 and show that mass deworming may generate more in future government revenue than it costs in subsidies

immigrating to opportunity estimating the effect of school quality using a natural experiment on ethiopians in israel in may 1991 fifteen thousand ethiopian jews were brought to israel in an overnight airlift and sorted in a haphazard and essentially random fashion to absorption centers across the country this quasi random assignment produced a natural experiment whereby the initial schooling environment of ethiopian children can be considered exogenous to their family background and parental decisions we examine the extent to which the initial elementary school environment affected the high school outcomes of ethiopian children using administrative panel data on the educational career of each child in israel through much of the 1990s the results show that the early schooling environment has an important effect on high school dropout rates repetition rates and the passing rate on matriculation exams necessary to enter college the results are robust to using alternative measures of the schooling environment and to the inclusion of community fixed effects which suggests that aspects of the elementary school itself are important for high school success

canadian contributions to family economics canadian scholars have made substantial contributions to the relatively new field of family economics these include new models of how men and women match in marriage markets and of how decisions are made in multi person households several were early contributors to the literature on married women s labour supply and labour supply in a family context and helped to develop empirical methods in this area a particular focus has been on the impacts of policy relevant parameters such childcare costs on family labour supply and child well being new work on child development the impact of early life conditions and the processes of intergenerational transmission also highlight the importance of family context in determining economic well being

natural capital and sustainability abstract this paper develops and rigorously analyses a model describing the optimal use of natural capital in a utilitarian framework natural capital is treated as an aggregate including exhaustibles renewables and environmentals performing several functions it is found that it converges to a steady state in which it is kept constant by simultaneous investments and use

does head start improve children s life chances evidence from a regression discontinuity design this paper exploits a new source of variation in head start funding to identify the program s effects on health and schooling in 1965 the office of economic opportunity oeo provided technical assistance to the 300 poorest counties to develop head start proposals the result was a large and lasting discontinuity in head start funding rates at the oeo cutoff for grant writing assistance we find evidence of a large drop at the oeo cutoff in mortality rates for children from causes that could be affected by head start as well as suggestive evidence for a positive effect on educational attainment i introduction head start was established in 1965 as part of the war on poverty to provide preschool health and other social services to poor children age three to five and their families and currently serves over 900 000 children each year at a cost of around 7 billion hhs 2006 this paper provides new evidence on the effects of the head start program on schooling and health by drawing on a new source of variation in program funding spe

does preschool education attendance matter evidence from a natural experiment in spain the non compulsory and non free of charge character of preschool education level before 3 years old in spain raises some doubts about the exogenous nature of this variable this article provides new evidence about the impact of preschool years on educational outcomes by exploiting a peculiar spanish database that supplies information on two classrooms at fourth grade in primary schools where students were randomly allocated into each group using an identification strategy that reproduces a natural experiment we find that belonging to the group with more average years of preschool education significantly and positively impacts on fourthgrade students average outcomes particularly an increase of one standard deviation in the difference in years of preschool attendance results in an increase of 0 16 0 13 standard deviations in the group achievement for mathematics reading in view of the importance of preschool education and considering that preschool attendance before 3 years old is related with socio economic variables we conclude that extending free preschool education to the 2 year old age group in spain should be considered especially for students in families with less favourable backgrounds

the reaction of exchange rates to economic news this paper examines the short run responses of spot exchange rates to several types of economic news survey data are used to divide economic announcements into expected and unexpected components with the latter measuring news the results indicate that exchange rates are systematically related to unexpected money announcements after the october 1979 switch in federal reserve operating procedures but not before this response does not appear to have changed however after the october 1982 federal reserve regime change short run exchange rate movements are not systematically related to news on inflation or real activity