the ir relevance of real wage rigidity in the new keynesian model with search frictions we explore the role of real wage dynamics in a new keynesian business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market both job creation and destruction are endogenous we show that the model generates counterfactual inflation and labor market dynamics in particular it fails to generate a beveridge curve vacancies and unemployment are positively correlated introducing real wage rigidity leads to a negative correlation and increases the magnitude of labor market flows to more realistic values however inflation dynamics are only weakly affected by real wage rigidity this is because of the presence of labor market frictions which generate long run employment relationships the measure of real marginal cost that is relevant for inflation dynamics via the phillips curve contains a dynamic component that does not necessarily move with real wages

cyclical behavior of real wages in japan this paper studies the cyclicality of aggregate real wages in japan by using both static and dynamic approaches i measure comovements between real wages and business cycle indicators this paper finds that while real wages constructed using the consumer price index and the gdp deflator are procyclical real wages constructed using the producer price index are countercyclical this result is robust to the data and methods used to compute the comovements

explaining instability in the stability and growth pact the contribution of member state power and euroskepticism to the euro crisis the stability and growth pact clearly failed to prevent the euro crisis we contend that the failure was due largely to the ability of the member states to undermine the pact s operation the european commission served as a watchdog to monitor fiscal performance the member states themselves however collectively had the ability to change the content of the reports for individual states we confirm the expectation that powerful member states had the most success in undermining the role of the commission perhaps more surprisingly we find supporting evidence for our argument that governments with euroskeptic populations behind them were also more successful in weakening the commission s warnings these results have broader theoretical implications concerning which mechanisms explain country specific outcomes under a shared rule another contribution is the creation of a new data set of european commission assessments of member state economic programs and council of minister revisions

inventories rational expectations and the business cycle abstract the simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational preclude the existence of business cycles that is of serially correlated deviations of output from trend this paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these so called new classical models produce business cycles the mechanism is the gradual adjustment of inventory stocks two macroeconomic models of inventory holdings are formulated both imply first that current output should be a decreasing function of the stock of inventories and second that inventories once perturbed from equilibrium levels should adjust only gradually these two features are then embedded into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational two principal conclusions are reached first disturbances such as unanticipated changes in money will set in motion serially correlated deviations of output from trend second if desired inventories are sensitive to the real interest rate then even fully anticipated changes in money can affect real variables

monetary policy and real wage cyclicality this article points to the potential role of monetary policy in affecting the degree of real wage cyclicality we show that the degree and direction of real wage cyclicality is determined by the interaction of i the returns to scale in production ii the nature of aggregate shocks and iii monetary policy given that production technology is fairly constant in the short run we suggest that variations in the real wage output covariance depend largely on the combination of the latter two identifying well documented monetary policy phases in six major organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries and accounting for both aggregate demand and supply shocks we provide empirical evidence to support our main theoretical claim

search frictions matching aggregate and establishment observations abstract we estimate a search model to match hours employment vacancies and unemployment at the micro and macrolevels we establish a set of facts concerning the variability of unemployment and vacancies in the aggregate and the distribution of net employment growth and the comovement of hours and employment growth at the establishment level a search model with non convex costs of posting vacancies establishment level profitability shocks and a contracting framework to set hours provides a structure to understand these observations the estimated model is able to capture both the aggregate and establishment level facts

dynamics and seasonality in quarterly panel data this article presents an empirical analysis of the dynamics of individual earnings using spanish quarterly earnings i propose a new econometric methodology to control for the seasonality in my dataset moreover i apply this methodology to the study of earnings mobility in spain using transition probabilities among earnings quintiles for the period 1985 1996 i find substantial mobility from one year to the next however earnings changes are basically among adjacent quintiles workers with university education are more mobile than workers with primary and secondary education on the other hand i observe greater negative mobility among earnings quintiles and more persistence of low earnings situations in the 1990s especially for workers with primary education

honesty in tournaments we apply the die rolling experiment of fischbacher and follmi heusi 2013 to a two player tournament incentive scheme our treatments vary the prize spread the data highlights that honesty is more pronounced when the prize spread is small

wage rigidity in canadian collective bargaining agreements the authors search information on the provisions of 10 947 wage contracts signed in the canadian unionized sector between 1976 and 1999 for evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity the disinclination of wages to fall in nominal dollars below their established level over the sample period real wage reductions were common but nominal wage reductions were rare the probability of downward nominal wage rigidity increased substantially during low inflation periods during such periods apparently there was no reduction in the incidence of real wage cuts but the magnitude of those cuts was modest suggesting a lesser ability of wages to adjust to labor market conditions than at other times

high and low frequency variations and the cyclical behaviour of real wages the conflicting empirical evidence on the cyclicality of real wages may be a result of the fact that the measure of comovements employed in the literature is affected by coherence among non business cycle variations in the data by recursively removing components the degree to which long and short term cycles contaminate the existing evidence is studied while confirming many of the results of the current literature it is found that evidence of cyclicality is affected more by long rather than by short term components even though the data have been detrended by a number of different methods it has been suggested in the literature that wages become more countercyclical as the deflators used represent less finished bundles of goods this study shows that this result is robust to the removal of components from either end of the spectrum

cyclical quality adjustment in the labor market 1 introductionthe u s unemployment rate fell to very low levels during the 1990s even more impressively the unemployment rate for minorities and less educated individuals fell disproportionately convergence of relative unemployment rates in expansions and divergence in recessions has been a feature of the u s economy over the last 30 years there are many possible reasons for this feature for example if the costs of hiring and firing less skilled labor are low one would expect these individuals to have very procyclical employment in this paper i explore an alternative model when there is an excess supply of labor high skilled people take jobs that would normally be occupied by less skilled people in expansions the process reverses with less skilled workers getting access to jobs that they would normally not attain i refer to this process as cyclical quality adjustment reder 1955 p 834 was one of the first to discuss how hiring standards adjust to business cycle conditions quality variations in labor markets arise through upgrading and downgrading of members of the labor force relative to the jobs they are to fill when applicants become scarce employers tend to lower the minimum standards upon which they insist as a condition for hiring a worker to fill a particular job and vice versa when applicants become plentiful since then many papers have developed this idea theoretically and many economic commentators appear to share this view of the labor market for example the economic report of the president states that a strong labor market is particularly important to less advantaged groups in the labor market such as workers with less education younger workers racial and ethnic minorities and immigrants when employers find it hard to fill vacancies they are more willing to hire and train workers whom they might pass over when they have fewer openings and an abundance of applicants council of economic advisors 1999 p 103 likewise the expansion during the 1990s spawned many newspaper articles about the improvement in the types of jobs available to less skilled applicants however there is little systematic empirical work about changes in job assignment in the united states over the business cycle the empirical work in this paper seeks to redress this situation cyclical assignment changes are important for many reasons as mentioned earlier job upgrading is a potential explanation for the greater cyclical variation of employment experienced by less skilled workers it is well known that the unemployment rates of less skilled individuals and minorities are more countercyclical relative to more skilled individuals clark and summers 1981 kydland 1984 keane and prasad 1993 hoynes 1999 the standard explanation for this effect is that low ability workers are more likely to be laid off in downturns because training and hiring costs are lower for these workers no commensurate attention has been paid to the issue of how the decision of who to hire changes over the business cycle however assignment models present a natural explanation for the greater procyclicality of employment of the less skilled both the adjustment cost hypothesis and the upgrading hypothesis imply that less skilled workers will have more procyclical employment empirically they are distinguishable because the upgrading explanation implies that jobs obtained by comparable workers should vary systematically over the cycle the adjustment cost hypothesis relates to the composition of those whose jobs are terminated second these mechanisms suggest a reason why wages are particularly procyclical for job changers recent studies using panel data have indicated that the wages of job starters are much more procyclical than the wages of workers who do not change jobs researchers have suggested various explanations for this result beaudry and dinardo 1991 and macleod and malcomson 1993 present contracting models in which the wages of job starters depend on the state of the labor market when they join the firm

why are the wages of job changers so procyclical evidence on wage cyclicality shows job changers have more procyclical wages than job stayers previous work argued this arises because workers gain greater access to jobs in sectors such as manufacturing that offer high wages this article argues that workers who switch jobs in booms enter temporary jobs with unemployment risk and are merely compensated for subsequent losses i demonstrate that the two explanations can be distinguished using the relationship between unemployment insurance and wage cyclicality among job changers the evidence supports the compensation hypothesis that is that job changers might not experience real gains from higher paying jobs in booms

wage rigidity and job creation recent research in macroeconomics emphasizes the role of wage rigidity in accounting for the volatility of unemployment fluctuations we use worker level data from the cps to measure the sensitivity of wages of newly hired workers to changes in aggregate labor market conditions the wage of new hires unlike the aggregate wage is volatile and responds almost one to one to changes in labor productivity we conclude that there is little evidence for wage rigidity in the data

imperfectly competitive labour markets and the productivity puzzle abstract we integrate imperfectly competitive labour markets in a dynamic macromodel in accordance with empirical evidence we find that temporary shocks are consistent with little real wage and large employment responsiveness while permanent shocks affect real wages and not employment

the cyclicality of the user cost of labor abstract the user cost of labor is the expected difference between the present discounted value of wages paid to a worker hired in the current period and that paid to a worker hired in the next period analogous to the price of any long term asset the user cost not wage is the relevant price for a firm that is considering adding a worker i construct its counterpart in the data and estimate that it is substantially more procyclical than average wages or wages of newly hired workers i demonstrate an application of the finding using the textbook search and matching model

the political economy of the euro crisis this article introduces the special issue on the political economy of the euro crisis which aims to improve our understanding of the causes consequences and implications of the highly unusual nature of this crisis a financial crisis among developed countries within a supranational monetary union the article provides a brief chronology of the crisis discusses its underlying causes and reviews the ways in which comparative and international political economy can help us understand the crisis the article then discusses the individual and collective contributions of the articles in the special issue and discusses possible future research paths on the political economy of the euro crisis we conclude with a brief discussion of how a political economy perspective informs our understanding of the long term prospects for the eurozone and european integration

business cycle models aggregation and real wage cyclicality a substantial literature has developed to estimate the true cyclicality of real wages that is composition bias free two major issues are addressed in this article aggregation of heterogeneous workers and potential bias in the measurement of the labor input a general analysis of the biases is presented and alternative approaches in the literature are nested in a single framework estimates based on an efficiency units concept that avoids the usual aggregation problems are presented composition bias underestimates the usual parameters of interest unless both the price and the quantity of the labor input are adjusted appropriately

keynesian involuntary unemployment and sticky nominal wages this paper presents a model in which sticky nominal wages and keynesian involuntary unemployment result as a consequence of the intertemporal optimisation decisions of profit maximising monopsonistic firms and fully rational and informed workers in an uncertain environment uncertainty associated with the business cycle and its impact on product price generates disequilibrium wages and identifies the labour demand function in contractions and the supply of labour in expansions the theoretical prediction of a negative relationship between real wages and employment during contractions and a positive relationship during expansions is strongly supported by the empirical evidence presented central to keynesian macroeconomics is the concept of involuntary unemployment the existence of which once was a commonly agreed upon stylised fact however as noted by hoover i988 and mccafferty i990 among others existing models either fail to provide a satisfactory reason why wages do not adjust to clear the market or seek some sort of equilibrium explanation in which unemployment is not strictly involuntary in the sense of keynes moreover the failure of recent empirical studies to support the keynesian prediction of a countercyclical wage has led some to doubt the relevance of keynesian economics and even the meaningfulness of the notion of involuntary unemployment lucas 1978 farmer 1993 keynes i 939 cited findings of a countercyclical real wage during the great depression argued that the relationship between real wages and employment depends upon whether changes in employment are due to changes in effective demand or due to other factors and recommended that observations on real wages ought to be classified by periods of contraction and expansion an examination of us data for the period 1920 89 presented in section ii of this paper confirms the importance of keynes s argument and motivated the development of the new keynesian model of employment and wages presented in section iii the model is characterised by a market structure in which representative monopsonistic firms post nominal wage rates which they may find optimal to partially but not totally index in advance of knowing product price and of hiring labourers who may have complete knowledge relevant to their choices price forecasts are assumed to be rational while prices vary with the state of the economy the theoretical framework i incorporates all of the characteristics of keynesian involuntary unemployment while not attributing the cause of unemployment to the supply behaviours of labourers 2 provides an explanation of why wages do not adjust to clear the market that is based explicitly on the optimising behaviour of firms and implicitly on that of

measuring the cyclicality of real wages how important is the firm s point of view there is a growing consensus among economists that real wages in the postwar united states have been procyclical greatly bolstering technology driven theories of business cycles at the expense of more classical models this paper makes the point that technological movements in firm s labor demand curves should be tested with a wage that is deflated by the firm s own price of output with appropriate controls for intermediate inputs and with respect to the cyclical state of the firm s own industry as opposed to the state of the aggregate economy failure to control for these factors is found to lead to substantial overrejection of the classical model in detailed industry data with controls for changes in worker composition i find that a vast majority of sectors have paid real product wages that vary inversely that is countercyclically with the state of their industry

real wages in the business cycle and the theory of income distribution an unresolved conflict between theory and facts in mainstream macroeconomics the focus of this article is the recurring tension between mainstream macroeconomics and observed facts in connection with the difficult task of providing explanations of the business cycle consistent both with the traditional theory of income distribution and with the empirical evidence concerning the co movements of real wages and employment over the cycle the attempts to reconcile facts and theory have led to the continuous introduction of specific and arguably ad hoc hypotheses in contrast with the search for greater theoretical rigour claimed by the various streams of macroeconomic modelling subsequent to the neo classical synthesis in addition the specific assumptions introduced in the models or their implications are in turn often contradicted or at best not confirmed by subsequent empirical research it is suggested in the conclusions that the difficulty of keeping together in a simple and consistent framework theory and facts reflects the flawed theoretical foundations of mainstream theory

retrospectives real and money wage rates abstract in the general theory john maynard keynes held money and real wage rates move in opposite directions in expansion prices increase faster because of increasing costs and a rise in the proportion of product going to profits neoclassical economists held similarly money illusion of workers supported their common view the author s 1938 article rather showed a procyclical pattern significant to macroeconomic models of the economy contemporary literature with new elements of compensation and new measures of wages supports a slightly procyclical relationship increased output and employment in expansion do not require lower real wages

data watch the panel study of income dynamics by collecting annual economic and demographic information from a large and representative sample of u s households for over a quarter century the panel study of income dynamics has compiled a remarkably useful set of microdata this article describes the psid and how its unique longitudinal and in some cases intergenerational features have been used for studies of intertemporal models of labor supply wages employment and job tenure consumption poverty dynamics extended family behavior and the intergenerational transmission of economic status

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

new evidence on cyclical variation in average labor costs in the united states we provide new evidence on the cyclicality of employers real labor costs using bls establishment job data for the 1982 2018 period average straight time wages have become countercyclical since th

sovereign debt migration pressure and government survival as soon as the sovereign debt crisis began it was widely understood that germany s response would dictate its ultimate resolution whereas the initial round of bailouts stabilized markets and pres

the political geography of the eurocrisis the european union provided a mixed response to the 2008 financial crisis on the one hand it refused to pursue fiscal integration through a common budget on the other it introduced significant transfers between countries that were designed to produce financial stabilization the authors analyze this response as the outcome of democratic constraints on eu leaders given the eu s current institutional structure citizens preferences pose a binding constraint on what leaders can do as these preferences limit the scope of risk pooling among members and the degree of political tolerance for different courses of action the authors show that citizens preferences reflect differences in the geography of income production regimes and institutional organization the heterogeneity of constituencies redistribution preferences combined with a diverse economic geography helps to explain why political constraints on national governments prevent them from engaging in further fiscal integration by contrast externalities among member states shift the preferences of citizens who may experience negative effects and make international redistribution politically feasible the authors analyze these two mechanisms and present novel empirical results on the determinants of preferences for fiscal integration and international redistribution in the aftermath of the eurocrisis

the cyclicality of consumption wages and employment of the public sector in the euro area this study empirically examines the business cycle behaviour of public consumption and its main components the public wage bill including its breakdown into compensation per employee and public employment and intermediate consumption in the euro area aggregate euro area countries and a group of selected non euro area organization for economic co operation and development oecd countries denmark sweden the uk japan and the us it looks across a large number of variables and methods using annual data from 1960 to 2005 it finds robust evidence supporting that public consumption wages and employment co move with the business cycle in a pro cyclical manner with 1 2 year lags notably for the euro area aggregate and euro area countries the findings reflect mainly the correlation between cyclical developments but also point to an important role of pro cyclical discretionary fiscal policies

evolving wage cyclicality in latin america a vector autoregression model with time varying coefficients is used to examine the evolution of wage cyclicality in four latin american economies brazil chile colombia and mexico during the period 1980 2010 wages are highly pro cyclical in all countries up to the mid 1990s except in chile wage cyclicality declines thereafter especially in brazil and colombia this decline in wage cyclicality is in accordance with declining real wage flexibility in a low inflation environment controlling for compositional effects caused by changes in labor force participation along the business cycle does not alter these results

how uncertainty and ambiguity in tournaments affect gender differences in competitive behavior abstract tournament incentives prevail in labor markets yet the number of tournament winners is often unclear to competitors while it is hard to measure how this uncertainty affects work performance and willingness to compete in the field it can be studied in a controlled lab experiment we present a novel experiment where subjects can compete against each other but the number of winners is either uncertain but with known probabilities or ambiguous with unknown probabilities for different numbers of winners we compare these two conditions to a control treatment with a known number of winners we find that ambiguity induces a significant increase in the performance of men who choose to compete while we observe no change for women men also increase their willingness to enter competition in the presence of ambiguity overall both effects contribute to men winning the tournament significantly more often than women under uncertainty and ambiguity these findings suggest that management should make tournament conditions transparent and information available in order to prevent gender disparities from increasing under uncertainty and ambiguity

sunspots and the business cycle in a finance constrained economy abstract this paper examines the cyclical properties of a finance constrained economy populated by two classes of households with heterogeneous preferences and featuring social increasing returns to scale the model exhibits indeterminacy for externalities mild enough so that the labor demand curve is downward sloping furthermore simulation results show that endogenous fluctuations driven by expectations are quantitatively relevant in opposition to standard real business cycles and sunspot models with single type of households our finance constrained economy reveals to be able to mimic both an acyclical pattern of the real wage and strong procyclical movements of aggregate consumption journal of economic literature classification numbers e2 e32

income and health spending evidence from oil price shocks health expenditures as a share of gdp in the united states have more than tripled over the past half century a common conjecture is that this is a consequence of rising income we investigate this hypothesis by instrumenting for local area income with time series variation in oil prices interacted with local oil reserves this strategy enables us to capture both partial equilibrium and local general equilibrium effects of income on health expenditures our central income elasticity estimate is 0 7 with 1 1 as the upper end of the 95 confidence interval which suggests that rising income is unlikely to be a major driver of the rising health expenditure share of gdp 2013 the president and fellows of harvard college and the massachusetts institute of technology

keynesian controversies on wages in the general theory keynes advanced two hypotheses about movements in wages and urged their empirical investigation john dunlop lorie tarshis and henry richardson responded to this call with articles published in the economic journal in the late 1930s in turn keynes replied to their findings this exchange is described and the subsequent literature on the cyclical movement of real wages and the rigidity of money wages is outlined

the spillover effects of gender quotas on dishonesty we experimentally test for spillover effects of gender quotas on subsequent unrelated unethical behavior we find that introducing quotas has no systematic effect on unethical behavior for both genders high performing competitive females are more likely to display unethical behavior than their male counterparts

evaluating the performance of the search and matching model abstract does the search and matching model fit aggregate u s labor market data while the model has become an important tool of macroeconomic analysis recent literature pointed to some significant failures in accounting for the data this paper aims to answer two questions i does the model fit the data and if so on what dimensions ii does the data fit the model i e what are the data which are relevant to be explained by the model the analysis shows that the model fits certain specifications of the data on many dimensions though not on all this includes capturing the high persistence and high volatility of most of the key variables the negative co variation of unemployment and vacancies and the behavior of the worker job finding rate a key role in this fit is played by the convexity of hiring costs and the stochastic properties of the separation rate the latter is a major component of the rate discounting the future value of the job worker match the paper offers a workable empirically grounded version of the model for the analysis of aggregate u s labor market dynamics

explaining procyclical male female wage gaps abstract our analysis based on the national longitudinal survey of youth for the 1978 1999 period concludes that men s greater representation in cyclical occupational groups such as craftsmen operatives and laborers more than accounts for the gap between men and women in the cyclicality of real wages

business cycles and the relationship between concentration and price cost margins using a newly constructed panel data base we examine changes in price cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981 a key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period we provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations this finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition the results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

real myths and a monetary fact in their paper business cycles real facts and a monetary myth kydland and prescott federal reserve bank of minneapolis quarterly review 14 1990 present a series of statistics generated by using the hodrick prescott filter which they define as the business cycle facts prescott federal reserve bank of minneapolis quarterly review 10 1986 argued that the facts are immune to the method of detrending however even if we use the hodrick prescott filter we can get a set of facts that differ in important ways from those in kydland and prescott 1990 in particular we can generate the conventional wisdom that real wages are acyclical very different relative volatilities of consumption investment and output and m1 leading the cycle in addition we note that the other important fact generated by kydland and prescott the countercyclicality of prices was not actually a new result

on the effects of ranking by unemployment duration abstract we propose a theory based on the firm s hiring behavior that rationalizes the observed significant decline of callback rates for an interview and exit rates from unemployment and the mild decline of reemployment wages over unemployment duration we build a directed search model with symmetric incomplete information on worker types and non sequential search by firms sorting due to firms testing of applicants in the past makes expected productivity fall with duration which induces firms to rank applicants by duration in equilibrium callback and exit rates both fall with unemployment duration in our numerical exercise using u s data we show that our model can replicate quite well the observed falling patterns with the firm s ranking decision accounting for a sizable part

who gives who gains progressivity and preferences the extent to which popular support for the welfare state depends on income varies greatly across nations and policy domains we argue and show formally that these variations largely overlooked yet essential to understanding the politics of redistribution reflect in part the design of tax and transfer policies in terms of progressivity when progressivity is high politics is perceived by income groups as a zero sum game and conflicts over who gets what intensify when progressivity is low and tax contributors and benefit recipients overlap redistributive struggles become politically less salient we test these predictions both across nations and across policy domains within a sample of advanced industrial democracies our findings indicate that the progressivity of the tax and transfer system is a major determinant of the predictive power of income on preferences for redistribution

failing forward the euro crisis and the incomplete nature of european integration the european union eu project of combining a single market with a common currency was incomplete from its inception this article shows that the incompleteness of the governance architecture of e

procyclical labour productivity a closer look at a stylized fact at 4 digit united states manufacturing industry level we find evidence suggesting that the stylized fact of procyclical labour productivity should be treated with great caution we use the nber manufacturing productivity database to investigate the relationship between hourly labour productivity and real output for 450 industries for the years 1958 91 labour productivity is significantly procyclical in 63 of industries and acyclical in 36 in the latter respect a high proportion of investment goods industries display acyclical productivity cross section regressions are carried out that seek to explain the interindustry distribution of cyclicality the analysis attributes a significant role to variations in materials costs as a proxy for fluctuations in factor utilization

the relative adjustment of wages and prices direct tests within a multiple equation system in order to assess the relative rigidity of the aggregate price level and the nominal wage rate most researchers have focused on the implied behaviour of the real wage rate in response to a purely demand disturbance the present work examines the explicit behaviour of the two variables and is therefore able to analyse the variables short run responses within the context of their defined long run behaviour while the paper reports evidence of long run stability in the real wage rate additional evidence is presented which supports both sticky price and sticky wage models the determining factor is the choice of lag

the spillover effects of affirmative action on competitiveness and unethical behavior we conduct an artefactual field experiment to examine various spillover effects of affirmative action policies in the context of castes in india we test a if individuals who enter tournaments in the presence of affirmative action policies remain competitive after the policy has been removed and b whether having been exposed to the policy generates unethical behavior and spite against subjects from the category who has benefited from the policy we find that these policies substantially increase the confidence and the competitiveness of the backward caste members however we find no spillover effect on confidence and competitiveness once affirmative action is withdrawn any gain in competitiveness due to the policy is then entirely wiped out furthermore the strong existing bias of the dominant category against the backward category is not significantly aggravated by affirmative action except when individuals learn that they have lost the previous competition

the cyclicality of real wages within employer employee matches using data from the panel study of income dynamics the author examines the cyclicality of wages within employer employee matches for the years 1970 91 recent research on wage cyclicality has suggested that wages are very procyclical tending to rise and fall with economic upturns and downturns even for workers who remain with the same employer the author finds however that the evidence for wage procyclicality within the matches he examines is rather weak except for the small group of workers who were paid by piece rate or commissions despite having acyclical wage rates men who were paid hourly had earnings movements that were very procyclical salaries exhibited little cyclicality but salaried workers who had income sources from bonuses commissions or overtime had procyclical earnings the results suggest that the increasing prevalence of incentive based pay will increase the procyclicality of wages within matches

a traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations under the traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations aggregate demand shocks move output and prices in the same direction while aggregate supply shocks move output and prices in opposite directions this paper examines the joint behavior of u s output unemployment prices wages and nominal money and asks whether it is consistent with this interpretation the answer is a qualified yes

real wages over the business cycle a band spectrum approach this paper presents new evidence on the cyclical relationship between real wages and aggregate employment as is well known models that attribute fluctuations in output to movements in aggregate demand and retain the assumption of flexible product prices the adpf hypothesis imply countercyclical real wage movements as employment adjusts along a downward sloping aggregate demand for labor schedule in contrast real business cycle theories 10 15 13 suggest procyclical movements as workers substitute work for leisure along dynamic labor supply schedules the empirical evidence on these propositions remains mixed some influential studies report a negative relationship 4 5 25 others report a positive relationship 2 12 18 and geary and kennan gk 7 to identify the purely business cycle correlation and distinguish it from correlations at very high and very low frequencies the frequency domain decomposition provides a simple framework for reconciling the conflicting conclusions of previous studies and for focusing attention on the business cycle relationship i show that the highly significant positive or negative correlations reported in previous studies are attributable to variations at frequencies far too high or far too low to be associated with the business cycle the true business cycle relationship is quite different from that revealed by simple regressions of real wages on employment i find a weak but statistically significant negative relationship over business cycle frequencies for the post war u s data when wages are deflated by the producer price index ppi the negative relationship is particularly strong over the subperiod 1947 70 but becomes weak and insignificant over the last sixteen years 1971 86 this finding is consistent with the widely held belief that in the former period cyclical movements in employment were determined by changes in aggregate demand while real shocks dominated in the 1970s however when wages are deflated by the consumer price index cpi the business cycle relationship is weak and not statistically significant over both subperiods these results contrast sharply with those of previous studies that do not isolate business cycle components

do quotas help women to climb the career ladder a laboratory experiment abstract women are less likely to enroll in selective or scientific courses applying for promotions and are particularly underrepresented in both middle and top positions in the stem field quota are often advocated as an instrument to reduce this gender gap but it remains unclear at what step of the career ladder they more effectively foster women s reaching the top many factors may affect quota s success or failure such as how they would in turn affect teamwork and trust between members within organizations or coordination in applying for promotions in this paper by means of a laboratory experiment implementing a two stage tournament we evaluate the impact of three different interventions in affecting individual decision to climb the career ladder abstracting away from other possible confounding factors we find that compared with no intervention a gender quota introduced in the initial stage of competition was ineffective in encouraging women to compete for the top quotas introduced in the final stage of competition or at both stages increased women s willingness to compete for the top without distorting the performance of the winners

hroot hamburg registration and organization online tool abstract hroot hamburg registration and organization online tool is a web based software designed for managing participants of economic experiments this package provides important features to assure a randomized invitation process based on a filtered pre specified subject pool and a complete documentation of the selection procedure for potential participants of an experiment

the cyclical behavior of marginal cost and price the author examines the cyclical behavior of price marginal cost margins for u s manufac turing after 1956 short run marginal cost is markedly procyclical this is primarily due to procyclical overtime payments incurred beca use employment is not perfectly flexible in most industries output price fails to respond to the cyclical movement in marginal cost so price marginal cost margins are markedly countercyclical the res ults contradict business cycle theories that explain low production i n a recession by a high real cost of producing they support theories that explain low production in a recession by the inability of firms to sell their output copyright 1987 by american economic association

a comparison of the cyclical behavior of union and nonunion wages in the united states this paper presents an extensive analysis of the behavior of union and nonunion wages over the business cycle using quasi panels developed from the current population survey in an attempt to resolve or reconcile competing claims about the cyclical behavior of union and nonunion wages union wages were roughly as procyclical as nonunion wages were prior to the early 1980s substantial reductions in union wage procyclicality since then are associated with reductions in the procyclical exercise of bargaining power

employment composition and the cyclical behaviour of the aggregate real wage this article investigates the relation between the cyclical behaviour of employment composition and the weighted average aggregate real wage in the usa cyclicality of employment composition arises in the context of two competing explanations of business cycle theory the human capital investment and profitability models consistent with the implications of the profitability theory the relative share of labour hours for older age 25 more highly skilled and paid workers declines faster during recessions compared to younger age 16 19 and 20 24 less skilled and lower paid workers this result coupled with the downward flexibility of teenage real wages reinforces the procyclical reduction in the aggregate real wage during recessions interestingly the decline in the relative share of workers age 25 during recessions is not accompanied by a corresponding significant decline in their nominal or real wages thus most of the adjustment during cyclical downturns appears to result in a reduction

the eurotower strikes back crises adjustments and europe s austerity protests the 2008 global financial crisis came with fears and for some hopes that a new wave of public mobilization would emerge in industrialized countries especially throughout the european union eu the epicenter of the crisis large protests were expected yet the energy with which social groups mobilized against the proposed austerity measures quickly fizzled this article provides new evidence for why this was the case in line with neo keynesian theory we argue that the interest rate adjustments and political announcements of the european central bank ecb limited the potential for mass unrest in the member states of the economic and monetary union emu affected by the crisis we provide evidence for our argument with yearly panel data and a new original data set of monthly political protests between 2001 and 2013 our analyses support the hypothesis that the ecb was able to successfully assuage dissatisfaction with the limited reform options of the eurozone member states in the wake of the eurocrisis

contracts job experience and cyclical labor market adjustments longitudinal estimates of the variability of individual wages hours and weeks worked over the course of changing demand states are provided for all workers generally and for workers of varied levels of job experience emphasis is placed on that part of job experience represented as years on current job a commonly used proxy for the magnitude of firm specific skills interpretation of resulting estimates in the context of the labor market contracting literature is attempted generally significant procyclical patterns are found for real weekly wages weekly hours and weeks worked the extent of weekly wage variability is much greater than is generally suggested in the literature furthermore workers with greater tenure exhibit greater cyclical wage and hours variability and less weeks variability finally empirical distinctions are drawn separately for white collar and blue collar as well as union and nonunion workers

dynamic factor demands and the effects of energy price shocks a dynamic model is used to understand how sharp changes in energy prices affect investment behavior employment and energy use the authors discuss the theory behind their model selection model specifications estimation methods and data list parameter estimates and elasticities for the selected model and describe the simulations they conclude that 1 the data strongly reject the hypothesis of constant returns to scale within their specification of aggregate production 2 the data indicate adjustment costs on labor are small and 3 their results help reconcile some of the conflicting estimates of energy demand elasticities appearing in recent literature 23 references 3 figures 3 tables

macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries some stylized facts this paper documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations and business cycle regularities for a group of 12 developing countries cross correlations between domestic industrial output and a large group of macroeconomic time series including government revenue and expenditure wages inflation money velocity private sector credit international trade and exchange rates are presented the effects of industrial country economic conditions on output fluctuations in these countries are also analyzed the robustness of the results is examined using three detrending procedures a modified hodrick prescott filter the baxter king band pass filter and a nonparametric technique overall the results show some similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in developing and industrial countries e g procyclical real wages and counter cyclical variation in government expenditure but also some important differences in business cycle characteristics e g countercyclical variation in the velocity of monetary aggregates

the unemployment volatility puzzle is wage stickiness the answer i discuss the failure of the canonical search and matching model to match the cyclical volatility in the job finding rate i show that job creation in the model is influenced by wages in new matches i summarize microeconometric evidence and find that wages in new matches are volatile and consistent with the model s key predictions therefore explanations of the unemployment volatility puzzle have to preserve the cyclical volatility of wages i discuss a modification of the model based on fixed matching costs that can increase cyclical unemployment volatility and is consistent with wage flexibility in new matches

why are wages cyclical in the 1970 s this article investigates cyclicality in real wages between 1969 and 1982 using panel study of income dynamics data there is little evidence that movements in and out of the labor market induced aggregate wage cyclicality during these years however cyclicality in the movement of workers between heterogeneous labor market sectors affected aggregate wage cyclicality while sector location is important sector selectivity is not correlated with wages yet even within sectors cyclicality is present in real wages over this time period and is the result of cyclicality in overall wage levels as well as in the coefficients associated with particular worker characteristics

how costly is diversity affirmative action in light of gender differences in competitiveness affirmative action is often criticized for causing reverse discrimination and lowering the qualifications of those hired under the policy however the magnitude of such adverse effects depends on whether the best suited candidate is hired absent the policy indeed affirmative action may compensate for the distortion discrimination imposes on the selection of candidates this paper asks whether affirmative action can have a similar corrective impact when qualified individuals fail to apply for a job we evaluate the effect of introducing a gender quota in an environment where high performing women fail to enter competitions they can win we show that guaranteeing women equal representation among winners increases their entry the response exceeds that predicted by the change in probability of winning and is in part driven by women being more willing to compete against other women the consequences are substantial as the boost in supply essentially eliminates the anticipated costs of the policy this paper was accepted by uri gneezy behavioral economics

crisis politics in europe why austerity is easier to implement in some countries than in others when countries face balance of payments crises their policy responses vary widely this article argues that the choice between the two main options of internal adjustment i e austerity and stru

the comovement between output and prices abstract in this paper i analyze the comovement of us prices and output in the postwar period i use a new set of statistics to characterize the comovement between variables the statistics capture important information about the dynamics in the system the estimation procedure does not require assumptions about the order of integration or the types of assumptions needed for var decompositions i find that the comovement between output and prices is positive in the short run and negative in the long run i show that a model in which demand shocks dominate in the short run and supply shocks dominate in the long run can explain these empirical results while sticky price models with only demand shocks cannot

do r d tax incentives lead to higher wages for r d workers evidence from the netherlands this paper examines the impact of the dutch r d tax incentive scheme on the wages of r d workers we construct firm specific r d tax credit rates that vary over time following variations in the dutch r d tax incentive program using instrumental variables we estimate a wage sharing model with an unbalanced firm level panel data covering the period 1997 2004 the elasticity of the r d wage with respect to the fraction of the wage supported by the fiscal incentives scheme is estimated at 0 2 in the short run and 0 24 in the long run

the earnings of immigrant men in canada job tenure cohort and macroeconomic conditions using eleven cross sectional surveys spanning 1981 92 the authors compare the earnings of immigrant and native born men in canada apparently recent immigrant cohorts have suffered no decline in earnings job tenure is found to be a strongly significant determinant of earnings previous estimates of immigrant earnings differentials which have not incorporated job tenure information may partly reflect differences in tenure between immigrants and the native born when the sample is restricted to pairs of surveys that are close to the census survey years the estimates of cohort effects are sensitive to the choice of survey years one possible explanation for that sensitivity is suggested by the finding that macroeconomic conditions are a statistically significant determinant of the rate of assimilation of recent immigrants

staggered price setting staggered wage setting and business cycle persistence abstract staggered price setting and staggered wage setting are commonly viewed as similar mechanisms in generating persistent real effects of monetary shocks in this paper we distinguish the two mechanisms in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework we show that although the dynamic price setting and wage setting equations are alike a key parameter governing persistence is linked to the underlying preferences and technologies in different ways with reasonable parameter values the staggered price mechanism by itself is incapable of while the staggered wage mechanism plays an important role in generating persistence

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from the national longitudinal surveys a 1991 study by paul beaudry and john dinardo found evidence of internal labor markets that augment incumbent workers wages when the external labor market is tight when unemployment is low and shield their wages when it is slack current wages they found depend on the tightest labor market conditions observed since a worker was hired not current labor market tightness or labor market tightness at the time of hiring this paper replicates and extends that research using data from six cohorts of the national longitudinal surveys that together span more than three decades as well as an estimation framework more robust than that in the original study the author finds strong support for beaudry and dinardo s key prediction supplementary regressions confirm other implications of the theory as well recently at least the effect of implicit contracting on wages has been similar for men and women

real wages and the business cycle the objectives of this review are threefold 1 to characterize the empirical literature on the cyclical behavior of real wages 2 to identify the sources of the differences in results across studies and 3 to enumerate key factors that determine the cyclicality of real wages given a host of measurement and methodological issues drawing firm conclusions is difficult but several generalizations can be made the estimated cyclicality of real wages depends crucially on the time period of analysis and the choice of whether to examine the production or the consumption wage composition effects play an important but complicated role as well

spatial dynamics and heterogeneity in the cyclicality of real wages neither the issue of how local and aggregate labor markets interact over time nor the issue of how heterogeneity by education race and other factors interacts with these spatial dynamics has prev

economic shocks and labor market flexibility we test how labor markets adjust to large but temporary economic shocks in a context in which such shocks are common using an individual level panel from 1 140 philippine municipalities over 26 quarters we find that workers in areas affected by strong typhoons experience reductions in hours worked and hourly wages without evidence of layoffs the results are strongest for formal wage paying jobs we argue that those results are best explained by implicit contracts where workers and firms share risks we provide extensive qualitative data suggesting that employment contracts in the philippines allow for such flexibility abstract from author

macro economic fluctuations in developing countries this article documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations for 12 developing countries it presents cross correlations between domestic industrial output and a large group of macroeconomic variables including fiscal variables wages inflation money credit trade and exchange rates also analyzed are the effects of economic conditions in industrial countries on output fluctuations in the sample developing countries the results point to many similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in developing and industrial countries procyclical real wages countercyclical variation in government expenditures and some important differences countercyclical variation the velocity of monetary aggregates their robustness is examined using different detrending procedures

tenure business cycle and the wage setting process abstract we analyze the interaction between job tenure and external labor market conditions in wage determination first we introduce a model that combines job matching with business cycle effects as the employment relationship progresses the worker appropriates a portion of the value of the match specific human capital she accumulates gradually becoming shielded from the cyclical variations in external labor market conditions the employment relationship is progressively internalized then we present empirical evidence supporting this prediction the elasticity of wages to the unemployment rate decreases with tenure this finding is robust to different specifications that allow for job heterogeneity and it contributes to the interpretation of recent evidence of changes in the effect of the business cycle on wages

intra industry wage differences over the business cycle abstract recent empirical studies find that the wage rate differences across industries are not so countercyclical as widely believed we consider intra industry wage differences which refer to wage differences across more narrowly defined industries and find stronger evidence of countercyclicality

in search of a stylised fact do real wages exhibit a consistent pattern of cyclical variability the paper surveys the studies on the cyclical behaviour of real wages published from the twenties onwards the traditional simple neoclassical model of the labour market suggests that real wages tend to move countercyclically however from a theoretical viewpoint there are few reasons to expect this behaviour once the simple model is extended to account for imperfect competition uncertainty lagged responses or contracting between firms and workers empirical studies give different answers to the problem the contributions reviewed in the paper are arranged roughly in a chronological order the interwar period the postwar pre econometric studies the econometric work using aggregate data the evidence produced on the basis of longitudinal data the analyses of the shock responsiveness of real wages and finally the most recent papers attempting a reconciliation of the somewhat conflicting evidence derived from aggregate and panel data

nominal wage rigidity in contract data a parametric approach using wage agreements reached in the canadian unionized sector during 1976 99 a period of high as well as exceptionally low inflation we consider how histograms of wage adjustment changed as inflation reached the low levels of the 1990s the histograms and parametric tests suggest that wage adjustment is characterized by downward nominal rigidity and significant spikes at zero there is some evidence of modest menu cost effects we examine whether the rigidity features of wage adjustment are sensitive to indexation provisions and investigate whether the distinction between short and long contracts is useful

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances

an investigation into the power of insiders in wage determination abstract this paper is concerned with the role of insider forces in wage determination various union and non union models of wage behaviour are considered and they imply that wages are a convex combination of internal and external factors certain union models also imply a degree of hysteresis data on fourteen british production industries reveal that i insider forces are important ii their importance is directly related to both union power and the degree of monopoly in the product market iii the state of the aggregate labour market is also important and iv hysteresis effects arising from insider power are only significant in a small minority of sectors

spot market wages implicit contracts and technological change skill level evidence from finland this article investigates the relevance of the theories of implicit contracts and spot market model to the skill level wages in finland we use linked worker firm panel data over the period from 1991 to 2004 which included major institutional and technological changes we find similar patterns in the wage flexibility of primary and highly educated workers their wages increased with the decreasing spot market unemployment rate after the eu membership still exhibiting some weak backward linkages the wages of the secondary educated did not follow the decreasing spot market unemployment but instead some signs of the full commitment risk sharing were found