interpreting economic time series this paper explores some of the implications for econometric practice of the principle that people s observed behavior will change when their constraints change in dynamic contexts a proper definition of people s constraints includes among them laws of motion that describe the evolution of the taxes they must pay and the prices of the goods that they buy and sell changes in agents perceptions of these laws of motion or constraints will in general produce changes in the schedules that describe the choices they make as a function of the information that they possess until very recently received dynamic econometric practice ignored this principle the practice of dynamic econometrics should be changed so that it is consistent with the principle that people s rules of choice are influenced by their constraints this is a substantial undertaking and involves major adjustments in the ways that we formulate estimate and simulate econometric models

a shadow rate new keynesian model abstract we propose a tractable and coherent framework that captures both conventional and unconventional monetary policies with the shadow fed funds rate empirically we document the shadow rate s resemblance to an overall financial conditions index various private interest rates the fed s balance sheet and the taylor rule theoretically we demonstrate the impact of unconventional policies such as qe and lending facilities on the economy is identical to that of a negative shadow rate making the latter a useful summary statistic for these policies our model generates the data consistent result a negative supply shock is always contractionary it also salvages the new keynesian model from the zero lower bound induced structural break

deflating asset price bubbles with leverage constraints and monetary policy abstract we develop an experimental production economy to study the general equilibrium and welfare effects of speculation and stabilization policies participants playing the role of household investors interact in labor output and in some treatments asset markets without the ability to trade assets participants over supply costly labor to acquire saving the presence of asset markets improves welfare by allowing investors to substitute labor income for speculative gains asset prices deviate substantially from fundamental value leverage constraints that prevent investors from borrowing for speculation are ineffective at stabilizing asset prices households often circumvent the constraints by excessively supplying labor and generating increased wealth which can be used for speculation wealth inequality is worsened due to endogenously higher interest accumulated by borrowers and savers an asset inflation targeting policy fuels initial asset price growth but as interest rates rise rapidly effectively deflates asset price deviations with learning the policy stabilizes asset prices and consequently interest rates which enhances welfare and reduces inequality we develop a model of heterogeneous expectations to rationalize our experimental findings

the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing evidence from an estimated dsge model abstract this paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing qe within an estimated open economy dsge model of the euro area the model includes two groups of households i wealthier households who own financial assets and are able to smooth consumption over time and ii poorer households who only receive labor and transfer income and live hand to mouth we use the model to compare the impact of policy shocks on constructed measures of income and wealth inequality net disposable income net asset position and relative per capita income except for the short term expansionary conventional policy and qe shocks tend to mitigate income and wealth inequality between the two population groups in light of the coarse dichotomy of households that abstracts from richer income and wealth dynamics at the individual level the analysis emphasizes the functional distribution of income

macroprudential policies in a low interest rate environment in this paper we analyze the use of macroprudential policies in a low interest rate environment where an occasionally binding zero lower bound zlb constraint gives rise to aggregate demand externalities we study this issue by using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with financial frictions and a monetary policy rule that is subject to the zlb we find that in a low interest rate environment the occasionally binding zlb creates additional scope for macroprudential intervention when the interest rate is high and the two policies can perfectly coordinate the optimal policy prescriptions behave as if they were independent this is however no more the case when the interest rate is low and or when monetary policy and macroprudential policy cannot be perfectly coordinating this more complex policy environment calls for more policy coordination

optimal policy with limited commitment abstract this paper uses whiteman s 1986 frequency domain optimization methodology to parameterize the commitment horizon in a standard rational expectations policy design model it is shown that the commitment horizon can be estimated by running restricted regressions of the policy maker s instrument variable on past values of its target variable the results are applied to us and german monetary policy assuming the monetary authority attempts to stabilize inflation using a federal funds like interest rate as an instrument the results point to a 1 month ahead commitment horizon for the us federal reserve and to a 12 month ahead commitment horizon for the german bundesbank however these horizons are estimated imprecisely

the quantitative significance of the lucas critique doan litterman and sims dls have suggested using conditional forecasts to do policy analysis with bayesian vector autoregression bvar models their method seems to violate the lucas critique which implies that coefficients of a bvar model will change when there is a change in policy rules in this article we attempt to determine whether the lucas critique is important quantitatively in a bvar macro model that we construct we find evidence following two candidate policy rule changes of significant coefficient instability and of a deterioration in the performance of the dls method

multiperiod loans occasionally binding constraints and monetary policy a quantitative evaluation we study the implications of multiperiod mortgage loans for monetary policy considering several realistic modifications fixed interest rate contracts a lower bound constraint on newly granted loans and the possibility of the collateral constraint to become slack to an otherwise standard dsge model with housing and financial intermediaries we estimate the model in its nonlinear form and argue that all these features are important to understand the evolution of mortgage debt during the recent us housing market boom and bust we show how the nonlinearities associated with the two constraints make the transmission of monetary policy dependent on the housing cycle with weaker effects observed when house prices are high or start falling sharply we also find that higher average loan duration makes monetary policy less effective and may lead to asymmetric responses to positive and negative monetary shocks

computable general equilibrium models and monetary policy advice this paper argues that variations of extant general equilibrium monetary models are capable of generating real time economic forecasts comparable in accuracy to those generated under the standard federal reserve board staff methodology specifically we argue that over the 1984 1990 period forecasts generated by versions of the limited participation models developed by fuerst 1992 and christian0 and eichenbaum 1992a 1992b compare favorably with those contained in the board staff s greenbook briefing documents we conclude that further development of these models holds promise for fully integrating the forecasting and policy analysis elements of the federal reserve s monetary policy advice process

stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound experimental evidence abstract our study demonstrates how agents expectations can interact dynamically with monetary and fiscal policy at the zero lower bound we study expectation formation near the zero lower bound using a learning to forecast laboratory experiment under alternative policy regimes in our experimental economy monetary policy targets inflation around a constant or state dependent target we find that subjects expectations significantly over react to stochastic aggregate demand shocks and historical information leading many economies to experience severe deflationary traps neither quantitatively nor qualitatively communicating the state dependent inflation targets reduce the duration or severity of economic crises introducing anticipated and persistent fiscal stimulus at the zero lower bound reduces the severity of the recessions when the recovery of fundamentals is sufficiently slow participants expectations become highly pessimistic and neither monetary nor fiscal policy are effective at stabilizing the economy

average cost pricing some evidence and implications we present new survey evidence on pricing behavior for more than 14 000 european firms and study its macroeconomic implications among firms that are price setters roughly 75 respond that their prices are set as a markup on total costs a business practice termed full cost pricing only 25 set prices as markups over variable or marginal costs moreover using industry data for the u s we find that the correlation between changes in output prices and changes in variable input prices is significantly lower when fixed costs are likely to be more important since our results are similar to the findings in the classic and controversial paper of hall and hitch 1939 and subsequent survey evidence we believe it worth studying the implications of full cost pricing for macroeconomics we first propose a problem for the firm where full cost pricing can arise as optimizing behavior we embed this problem featuring an occasionally binding constraint into a simple general equilibrium model we show that when the model is hit by a shock that makes the constraint binding the response of endogenous variables is amplified significantly more than it would be under the unconstrained regime

monetary policy shifts and the term structure we estimate the effect of shifts in monetary policy using the term structure of interest rates in our no arbitrage model the short rate follows a version of the taylor s 1993 discretion versus policy rules in practice carnegie rochester conference series on public policy 39 195 214 rule where the coefficients on the output gap and inflation vary over time the monetary policy loading on the output gap has averaged around 0 4 and has not changed very much over time the overall response of the yield curve to output gap components is relatively small in contrast the inflation loading has changed substantially over the last 50 years and ranges from close to zero in 2003 to a high of 2 4 in 1983 long term bonds are sensitive to inflation policy shifts with increases in inflation loadings leading to higher short rates and widening yield spreads

does money matter the robustness of evidence from vector autoregressions traditionally empirical macroeconomic research begins with the use of theory to construct a highly restricted structural econometric model the determination of the nature of those restrictions is fraught with difficulty and thus many specification decisions turn out to be largely ad hoc and of dubious validity once these specification issues have been probably inadequately addressed and a structural model constructed it is then estimated using complicated econometric techniques requiring sophisticated computer programs recently an alternative approach to modeling macroeconomic time series has come into wide use this alternative introduced by sims 1980a 1980b suggests the use of vector autoregression var models to analyze time series relationships among macroeconomic variables the fact that the use of this approach has proliferated widely in a relatively brief period of time is due not only to the very persuasive criticisms of traditional methods made by sims see especially sims 1980a but perhaps even more to the perception that specification and estimation problems are greatly simplified the user of the var approach imposes few restrictions and can generally use ordinary least squares estimation procedures the var approach is thus believed to be largely free of the spurious specification assumptions and consequent specification errors necessitated by traditional macroeconometric procedures

tax disturbances and real economic activity in the postwar united states abstract this paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of cyclical fluctuations in marginal tax rates it finds that systematically including tax variables in a standard real business cycle model substantially improves the model s ability to reproduce basic facts about postwar u s business cycle fluctuations in particular modeling fluctuations in personal and corporate income tax rates increases the model s predicted relative variability of hours and decreases its predicted correlation between hours and average productivity fluctuations in tax rates produce large substitution effects that alter the leisure labor supply decision

comment on the limits of forward guidance by jeffrey r campbell filippo ferroni jonas d m fisher and leonardo melosi abstract this note discusses the article the limits of forward guidance by jeffrey r campbell filippo ferroni jonas d m fisher and leonardo melosi the authors make an excellent contribution to the literature on solving the forward guidance puzzle by proposing that central bank communication is imperfect noisy and thus announcements of the monetary policy stance many periods ahead have a limited impact on agents decisions by estimating a rich dsge model using a wide set of us data including interest rate futures they quantify the precision of the fed s communication we show that estimating a linear model without explicitly accounting for the elb constraint may lead to biased results that overstate the imperfections of central bank communication

the optimal composition of public spending in a deep recession abstract we study optimal fiscal policy in an economy plunged into a deep recession characterized by a liquidity trap and in which the government can allocate spending both to consumption and investment goods public investment increases the stock of public capital subject to a time to build constraint the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate binds as a result of a large shock that increases households desire to save in the risk free asset pushing the natural rate of interest below zero under nominal rigidities and sub optimal monetary policy the shock leads to a large decline in private consumption and investment we show that the optimal response to such a shock is to temporarily raise public spending above the level that would be dictated by classical principles and to tilt its composition towards public investment this compositional shift lasts well after the natural rate has ceased to be negative our results suggest that the american recovery and reinvestment act of 2009 was insufficiently oriented towards public investment

a welfare based analysis of international monetary policy spillovers at the zero lower bound we study the welfare effects of international monetary policy spillovers at the zero lower bound focusing on the effects of forward guidance in a large economy foreign on its smaller trading partner home in scenarios motivated by the global financial crisis we find that foreign forward guidance has an overall prosper thy neighbor effect on the home economy as long as it increases foreign welfare this finding holds under alternative assumptions about exchange rate pass through or the degree of international financial integration however foreign forward guidance may worsen the trade off between the stabilization objectives of home monetary policy

uncertain policy promises abstract we develop a general method for analyzing the effects of macroeconomic policy promises about which the private sector is uncertain we illustrate the method in two applications to a central bank s forward guidance about the path for its policy rate we demonstrate that uncertainty about forward guidance resulting from its potential to be imperfectly credible makes it much less powerful than in textbook models in an application to the fomc s threshold based guidance we show that increasing the precision of the conditions under which the policy rate lifts off from the zero bound requires a lower unemployment threshold to deliver a given amount of stimulus

an econometric analysis of income tax evasion and its detection this article presents an econometric analysis of income tax evasion and its detection based on individual level data drawn from the internal revenue service 1982 and 1985 taxpayer compliance measurement programs i specify a model consisting of two equations the first measures the extent of evasion the second the fraction of evasion detected the empirical analysis explores the effects of income the marginal tax rate and various socioeconomic characteristics on filer evasion behavior and it assesses the variability in detection rates among irs examiners finally i use the empirical estimates to construct new estimates of the income tax gap the new estimates are very close to the previous irs estimates

rational expectations and the paradox of policy relevant natural experiments abstract policy experiments using large microeconomic datasets have recently gained ground in macroeconomics imposing rational expectations we examine robustness of evidence derived from ideal natural experiments applied to atomistic agents in dynamic settings paradoxically once experimental evidence is viewed as sufficiently clean to use it then becomes contaminated by ex post endogeneity measured responses depend upon priors and the objective function into which evidence is fed moreover agents policy beliefs become endogenously correlated with their causal parameters severely clouding inference e g sign reversals and non invertibility may obtain treatment control differences are contaminated for non quadratic adjustment costs constructively we illustrate how inference can be corrected accounting for feedback and highlight factors mitigating contamination

occbin a toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily abstract the toolkit adapts a first order perturbation approach and applies it in a piecewise fashion to solve dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints our examples include a real business cycle model with a constraint on the level of investment and a new keynesian model subject to the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates compared with a high quality numerical solution the piecewise linear perturbation method can adequately capture key properties of the models we consider a key advantage of the piecewise linear perturbation method is its applicability to models with a large number of state variables

the macroeconomic effects of large scale asset purchase programmes the effects of asset purchase programs on macroeconomic variables are likely to be moderate we reach this conclusion after simulating the impact of the federal reserve s second large scale asset purchase program lsap ii in a dsge model enriched with a preferred habitat framework and estimated on u s data our simulations suggest that such a program increases gdp growth by less than half a percentage point although the effect on the level of gdp is very persistent the program s marginal contribution to infl ation is very small one key reason for our fi ndings is that we estimate a small degree of fi nancial market segmentation if we enrich the set of observables with a measure of long term debt the semi elasticity of the risk premium to the amount of debt in privatesector hands is substantially smaller than that reported in the recent empirical literature in this case our baseline estimates of the effects of lsap ii on the macroeconomy decrease by at least a factor of two throughout the analysis a commitment to an extended period at the zero lower bound for nominal interest rates increases the effects of asset purchase programs on gdp growth and infl ation

comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies this paper compares solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies the authors compute and simulate the stochastic neoclassical growth model with leisure choice using undetermined coefficients in levels and in logs finite elements chebyshev polynomials second and fifth order perturbations and value function iteration for several calibrations the authors document the performance of the methods in terms of computing time implementation complexity and accuracy and they present some conclusions about their preferred approaches based on the reported evidence

information and ira participation the influence of tax preparers abstract the steep drop off in the number of individual retirement account ira contributors after 1986 has led to suggestions that taxpayers misunderstood and over reacted to the restrictions on deductible contributions imposed by the tax reform act of 1986 tax panel data is used to investigate the role of taxpayer misunderstanding in the drop off in ira contributors after 1986 the hiring of a tax preparer is the transmission mechanism for knowledge of the deductibility rules after 1986 the results suggest that more information and promotion of iras would have increased the probability of contributing to an ira in 1987 for high income taxpayers but would have decreased this probability for middle income taxpayers taxpayer confusion over the deductibility restrictions appears to have been resolved by 1988 therefore taxpayer misunderstanding did not play a major role in the steep drop off in the number of ira contributors after 1986

estimating dsge models with zero interest rate policy we propose estimating dsge models in which the central bank fixes the policy rate for an extended period of time and apply our approach to estimate expected durations of the federal reserve s zero interest rate policy since 2009 we find a large increase in expected duration in 2011 with the move to calendar based guidance and a decrease in 2013 with the taper tantrum these changes are identified by the influence of expected duration on output inflation and interest rates at longer maturities the structural model measures the severity of the zero lower bound constraint and the effects of unconventional policy

computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents ii multi country real business cycle models this paper describes the second model considered in the computational suite project that compares the performance of different numerical algorithms it is a multi country model in which countries face different productivity shocks solving such models is a challenging numerical problem unless the number of countries is small the solutions are functions of a large set of arguments and the functional forms are unknown moreover the solution procedures have to deal with high dimensional integration problems

global effective lower bound and unconventional monetary policy abstract in a standard open economy new keynesian model the effective lower bound causes anomalies output and terms of trade respond to a supply shock in the opposite direction compared to normal times we introduce a tractable framework to accommodate for unconventional monetary policy in our model these anomalies disappear we allow unconventional policy to be partially active and asymmetric between countries empirically we find the us euro area and uk have implemented a considerable amount of unconventional monetary policy the us follows the historical taylor rule whereas the others have done less compared to normal times

evaluating central banks tool kit past present and future abstract we develop a structural dsge model to systematically study the principal tools of unconventional monetary policy quantitative easing qe forward guidance and negative interest rate policy nirp as well as the interactions between them to generate the same output response the requisite nirp and forward guidance interventions are twice as large as a conventional policy shock which seems implausible in practice in contrast qe via an endogenous feedback rule can alleviate the constraints on conventional policy posed by the zero lower bound quantitatively qe1 qe3 can account for two thirds of the observed decline in the shadow federal funds rate in spite of its usefulness qe does not come without cost a large balance sheet has consequences for different normalization plans the efficacy of nirp and the effective lower bound on the policy rate

clearing up the fiscal multiplier morass bayesian prior predictive analysis of five nested dsge models suggests that model specifications and prior distributions tightly circumscribe the range of possible government spending multipliers multipliers are decomposed into wealth and substitution effects yielding uniform comparisons across models by constraining the multiplier to tight ranges model and prior selections bias results revealing less about fiscal effects in data than about the lenses through which researchers choose to interpret data when monetary policy actively targets inflation output multipliers can exceed one but investment multipliers are likely to be negative passive monetary policy produces consistently strong multipliers for output consumption and investment

monetary policy shocks what have we learned and to what end this paper reviews recent research that grapples with the question what happens after an exogenous shock to monetary policy we argue that this question is interesting because it lies at the center of a particular approach to assessing the empirical plausibility of structural economic models that can be used to think about systematic changes in monetary policy institutions and rules the literature has not yet converged on a particular set of assumptions for identifying the effects of an exogenous shock to monetary policy nevertheless there is considerable agreement about the qualitative effects of a monetary policy shock in the sense that inference is robust across a large subset of the identification schemes that have been considered in the literature we document the nature of this agreement as it pertains to key economic aggregates

mortgages and monetary policy mortgages are long term nominal loans under incomplete asset markets monetary policy is shown to affect housing investment and the economy through the cost of new mortgage borrowing and the value of payments on outstanding debt these channels distinct from traditional transmission of monetary policy are evaluated within a general equilibrium model persistent monetary policy shocks resembling the level factor in the nominal yield curve have larger effects than transitory shocks manifesting themselves as long short spread the transmission is stronger under adjustable than fixed rate mortgages higher persistent inflation benefits homeowners under frms but hurts them under arms

subprime borrowers securitization and the transmission of business cycles a growing literature i e jaffee lynch richardson and van nieuwerburgh 2009 acharya and schnabl 2009 argues that securitization improves financial stability if the securitized assets are held by capital market participants rather than financial intermediaries i construct a quantitative macroeconomic model with a novel specification for mortgage backed securities mbs to evaluate this claim my findings suggest that the existence of the securitization market stabilizes the economy under the condition that financial intermediaries do not engage in the acquisition of securitized assets in the presence of large negative housing preference shocks the drop in output in the first year after the shock is halved if subprime mbs are purchased by non financial agents rather than held by banks less

the causal direction between money and prices abstract causality is viewed as a matter of control controllability is captured in simon s analysis of causality as an asymmetrical relation of recursion between variables in the unobservable data generating process tests of the stability of marginal and conditional distributions for these variables can provide evidence of causal ordering the causal direction between prices and money in the united states 1950 1985 is assessed the balance of evidence supports the view that money does not cause prices and that prices do cause money

asset markets tariffs and political risk abstract this paper examines a simple model in which exogenous political risk creates uncertainty about tariffs the model predicts a relation between consumption and tariffs that differs radically from that implied by models without asset markets or political risk given the probability distribution of tariffs domestic consumption and utility ex post are lower in states of the world with a domestic tariff and no foreign tariff than with a foreign tariff and no domestic tariff this conclusion emerges despite the fact that the opposite would be obtained in the absence of asset markets so economists should not be surprised if observed relations between consumption and tariffs differ from the predictions of static theory in either time series or cross sections

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

the dynamic effects of forward guidance shocks we examine the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance shocks at the zero lower bound empirically we identify forward guidance shocks using unexpected changes in futures contracts around moneta

monetary policy and the stability of macroeconomic relationships summary estimates of the effect of different international monetary regimes on the parameters of the phillips curve the keynesian consumption function and other reduced form macroeconomic relationships are given the estimates provide a quantitative assessment of the importance of the lucas critique for such regime shifts the estimates are calculated by stochastically simulating an estimated multicountry economic model with rational expectations under a fixed exchange rate regime and a flexible exchange rate regime in both regimes interest rates are the primary instrument of monetary policy noticeable shifts occur in most of the macroeconomic relationships especially in the consumption function and the phillips curve and these shifts have simple economic interpretations based on the changes in the variance and the serial correlation of income and prices in the two regimes however in most cases the shifts are not large quantitatively at least as implemented here this type of regime shift does not seem to generate much instability in the conventional macroeconomic relationships several possible reasons for this finding are discussed in the paper in this paper i plan to follow in a tradition pioneered by a w phillips almost 40 years ago phillips 1954 evaluated monetary and fiscal policy by examining the operating properties of simple policy rules in a fully specified economic model he did this by applying control theory ideas from the engineering literature by examining the performance of the model economy under different types of policy rules for example proportional derivative and integral rules he attempted to determine which policy rule would work well and which would not work well in practice following in the phillips tradition does not mean that i will use the same theoretical models econometric methods or computational techniques that phillips used to do so would in my view pass by fundamental developments in dynamic economic theory econometrics and solution procedures that have been achieved since the time that phillips wrote phillip s 1954 analysis was based on keynesian islm multiplier accelerator models that were popular in the early 1950s the policy evaluation i describe in this lecture differs from phillips s policy evaluation in several ways first it makes use of a dynamic rational expectations model with forward looking behaviour in consumption investment wage setting and interest rates second the model is international and exchange rate determination reflects the current high degree of international capital mobility which did not exist when phillips wrote third the model is empirically estimated most of phillips s work was based on simulation models with calibrated parameters fourth the simulations are done stochastically with an empirically

estimation and testing of the union wage effect using panel data we present estimates of the union wage effect controlling for unmeasured individual effects and subject the conventional fixed effects model to specification tests for psid men the union wage effect is 5 8 after controlling for person effects as opposed to 20 in cross section omnibus tests based on an unrestricted reduced form and instrumental variables tests based on differencing are consistent with conventional models tests based on comparing those who enter and leave union coverage provide evidence against the usual model we find evidence for interactions between union status and other variables even after controlling for person effects

do individual retirement accounts increase savings do iras increase savings or are they merely a windfall for otherwise well off taxpayers a major objective of universal iras was to encourage saving for retirement a spirited debate has ensued over the use of ira tax deductions as a means of promoting private savings the crucial policy issue is not whether ira contributions were substantial they clearly were representing about 30 percent of personal savings from 1982 to 1986 rather the important question is the source of ira contributions iras can be financed out of 1 tax savings themselves 2 shifting existing assets into iras 3 borrowing 4 diverting new savings into iras or 5 reducing consumption the key question is how much of ira savings comes from reduced consumption for overall savings to increase private savings must increase by more than the tax savings conventional economic theory and evidence strongly suggests that iras were not effective savings incentives the challenge to this view rests largely on studies which have appealed to a variety of psychological factors not normally incorporated in economic analysis this paper reviews both types of analysis and concludes that the conventional view remains sound thus a dollar devoted to deficit reduction is likely to be a safer bet for increasing savings than a dollar devoted to ira benefits

taxation with representation abstract in this paper a framework is developed for the joint analysis of tax preparation mode and tax non compliance estimation is performed using micro level audit data from the internal revenue service although tha availability of tax practitioners undoubtedly reduces many of the informational and computational barriers to tax compliance the results indicate that their use particularly the use of cpas and attorneys is associated with increased tax non compliance which may have negative implications for both tax equity and tax efficiency

capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy abstract is there a link between capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a country with a floating currency shocks to capital flows into a small open economy lead to volatility in asset prices and credit supply to lessen the impact of capital flows on financial instability a central bank finds it optimal to use the domestic interest rate to manage the capital account capital account restrictions affect the behavior of optimal monetary policy following shocks to the foreign interest rate capital controls allow optimal monetary policy to focus less on the foreign interest rate and more on domestic variables

optimal monetary policy with relative price distortions this paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in a sticky price model with calvo type staggered price setting in the paper the optimal monetary policy maximizes the expected utility of a representative household without having to rely on a set of linearly approximated equilibrium conditions given the distortions associated with the staggered price setting it shows that the complete stabilization of the price level is optimal in the absence of initial price dispersion while optimal inflation targets respond to changes in the level of relative price distortion in the presence of initial price dispersion

the limits of forward guidance abstract the viability of forward guidance as a monetary policy tool depends on the horizon over which it can be communicated and its influence on expectations over that horizon this paper develops and estimates a model of imperfect central bank communications and uses it to measure how effectively the fed has managed expectations about future interest rates and the influence of its communications on macroeconomic outcomes standard models assume central banks have perfect control over expectations about the policy rate up to an arbitrarily long horizon and this is the source of the so called forward guidance puzzle our estimated model suggests that the fed has limited ability to affect expectations at horizons that are sufficiently long to give rise to the forward guidance puzzle additionally imperfect communication has a significant impact on the propagation of forward guidance finally we develop a novel decomposition of the response of the economy to forward guidance the decomposition shows that empirically plausible imperfect forward guidance has a quantitatively important role bringing forward the effects of future rate changes and that poor communications have been a source of macroeconomic volatility

financial spillover and global risk in a multi region model of the world economy abstract this paper estimates a three region dsge model ea us row with international financial linkages in the form of cross border equity holding and allowing for region specific as well as global financial shocks which match empirical measures of financial tightness and global stock market valuation spillover from financial shocks increases with international financial integration and is practically zero under full home bias in normal times the global risk captures international synchronisation of financial cycles spillover of financial shocks is amplified at the zero lower bound at which investment risk takes on the characteristics of a general uncertainty shock the model results suggest that integrated financial markets should provide a powerful motivation for international policy coordination to prevent financial turmoil

on targeting frameworks and optimal monetary policy we show that speed limit policy a monetary policy strategy that focuses on stabilizing inflation and the change in the output gap consistently outperforms flexible inflation targeting and flexible price level targeting in empirical medium scale dsge models under discretionary policymaking in contrast to small scale new keynesian models this welfare ranking of the targeting frameworks is not overturned when inflation dynamics are mostly backward looking importantly the performance of the speed limit policy shows less sensitivity to its parameterization than other frameworks that target the inflation rate or the price level

business tax policy the lucas critique and lessons from the 1980 s in 1976 robert lucas published a devastating critique of the then current practice for quantifying the effects of alternative policies he argued that in formulating plans economic agents necessarily look into the future and thus the decision rules guiding their actions depend on parameters describing the expectations of future variables as well as parameters of taste and technology lucas viewed economic policy as the selection of rules that generate the values of policy variables rather than the selection of arbitrary sequences of policy variables thus any change in policy will systematically alter the structure of econometric models 1981 p 126 and the estimated coefficients in the then current consumption wageprice or investment models could not be considered structural that is invariant to alternative policy regimes the important and damning implication for policy analysis is that these econometric relationships will prove unstable in precisely those situations in which they are called upon to analyze proposed policies this paper seeks to exploit the substantial variation in business tax policy during the 1980 s to shed some light on the quantitative importance of the lucas critique lc and to evaluate the ability of explicit theory to enhance econometric analysis in august of 1981 the economic agenda of the reagan revolution began to be put in place with the passage of the economic recovery tax act erta this was followed by the tax equity and fiscal responsibility act of 1982 the deficit reduction act of 1984 and the tax reform act of 1986 other changes such as the increase in defense spending and growth of and restrictions on the federal deficit indicate that expectations of the current and future course of fiscal policy were altered radically during the reagan administration maintained in this paper is the assumption that these changes in tax and other aspects of fiscal policy can be viewed as an unanticipated change in policy regime in regard to the 1981 legislation the economic report of the president claimed that t his tax policy is a sharp break from the policies of the recent past it reflects a different understanding of the way tax policy affects the u s economy 1982 p 109 under the assumption that the 1980 s witnessed a fundamental change in the stochastic process characterizing fiscal policy econometric equations susceptible to the lc should become temporally unstable those models that successfully address the lc by isolating expectation parameters should remain stable the quantitative importance of the lc is evaluated by examining the stability of four different econometric models of business investment that to varying degrees are vulnerable to the lc the neoclassical model studied extensively by robert hall and dale jorgenson 1967 robert eisner and m ishaq nadiri 1968 and their numerous collaborators the q model associated with james tobin the vector autoregressive model var s advanced by christopher sims 1982 and a hybrid var model var h used to study investment by robert gordon and john veitch 1986 since the four models differ in the extent to which they are guided by explicit theoretical frameworks these results will also be useful in assessing the impact of economic theory on econometric performance university of chicago chicago il 60637 i thank charles hulten robert lucas and allen sinai for critical comments on a preliminary draft all errors omissions and conclusions remain my sole responsibility

the perils of taylor rules abstract since john taylor s 1993 carnegie rochester conf ser publ policy39 195 214 seminal paper a large literature has argued that active interest rate feedback rules that is rules that respond to increases in inflation with a more than one for one increase in the nominal interest rate are stabilizing in this paper we argue that once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account active interest rate feedback rules can easily lead to unexpected consequences specifically we show that even if the steady state at which monetary policy is active is locally the unique equilibrium typically there exist an infinite number of equilibrium trajectories originating arbitrarily close to that steady state that converge to a liquidity trap that is a steady state in which the nominal interest rate is near zero and inflation is possibly negative journal of economic literature classification numbers e52 e31 e63

macroeconomics and methodology probabilistic reasoning is essential to discourse in economics this is true in any discipline in which as in economics data collection is constrained and beliefs about the phenomena being studied are crucial to decisions that cannot be delayed some economists have recently turned away from form probabilistic inference in part because of legitimate discontent with the prescriptions of specialized econometricians however this turning away has gone in mutually inconsistent directions and is in the long run unsustainable it should be more widely recognized that careful applied work in macroeconomics using steadily advancing probabilistic modeling techniques has been steadily increasing

unanticipated monetary policy and real economic activity some cross regime evidence abstract classical equilibrium models of business cycles predict several consequences of policy regime shift this paper examines these predictions using evidence from the post 1979 period and by comparing several pre war monetary regimes the policy invariance proposition and the lucas hypothesis receive some support from the evidence although some discrepancies remain

monetary fiscal interactions with endogenous liquidity frictions i develop a tractable macro model with endogenous asset liquidity to understand monetary fiscal interactions with liquidity frictions agents face idiosyncratic investment risks and meet financial intermediaries in competitive search markets asset liquidity is determined by the search friction and the cost of operating the financial intermediaries and it drives the financing constraints of entrepreneurs those who have investment projects and their ability to invest in contrast to private assets government bonds are fully liquid and can be accumulated in anticipation of future opportunities to invest a higher level of real government debt enhances the liquidity of entrepreneurs portfolios and raises investment however the issuance of debt also raises the cost of financing government expenditures a higher level of distortionary taxation and or a higher real interest rate a long run optimal supply of government debt emerges i also show that a proper mix of monetary and fiscal policies can avoid a deep financial recession

a framework for assessing credit risk in depository institutions toward regulatory reform abstract this paper develops and illustrates a new method for evaluating the credit risk borne by depository institutions that may prove to be an important element in a regulatory mechanism sensitive to risk in our framework depository institutions are forced to bear the costs of their risk exposure and hence to internalize this cost when extending loans using various loan portfolios and alternative macroeconomic scenarios we present numerical calculations demonstrating the ability of our framework to capture variations in risk exposure and highlighting the significance of portfolio concentrations these calculations are based on an important new source of information that permits an econometric analysis of loan losses by industry

the effects of foreign shocks when interest rates are at zero in a two country dsge model the effects of foreign demand shocks on the home country are greatly amplified if the home economy is constrained by the zero lower bound on policy interest rates this result applies even to countries that are relatively closed to trade such as the united states departing from many of the existing closed economy models the duration of the liquidity trap is determined endogenously adverse foreign shocks can extend the duration of the trap implying more contractionary effects for the home country the home economy is more vulnerable to adverse foreign shocks if the neutral rate is low consistent with secular stagnation and trade openness is high

forward guidance and the state of the economy this paper analyzes forward guidance in a nonlinear model with a zero lower bound zlb on the nominal interest rate forward guidance is modeled with news shocks to the monetary policy rule which capture innovations in expectations from central bank communication about future policy rates whereas most studies use quasi linear models that disregard the expectational effects of hitting the zlb we show how the effectiveness of forward guidance nonlinearly depends on the state of the economy the speed of the recovery the degree of uncertainty the policy shock size and the forward guidance horizon when households account for the zlb jel e43 e58 e61

u s soviet chinese relations routine reciprocity or rational expectations international relations theorists disagree about whether great power behaviors reflect bureaucratic routine or reciprocity recently some have suggested that these behaviors result from great powers rational expectations rather than from simple routine or reciprocity the debate is flawed in several respects the quasi experimental studies of great power behavior suffer from specification and measurement errors furthermore most studies of great power behavior focus exclusively on the superpowers without adequately appreciating china s role in world politics we present an improved analysis that recognizes the potential effects of chinese behavior and ameliorates the methodological flaws in existing work the results indicate that the behaviors of the united states the soviet union and china are a relatively stable mix of bureaucratic routine and reciprocity the results also indicate complex asymmetrical connections among u s soviet u s chinese and soviet chinese relations consistent with the notion of a strategic triangle

the macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area evidence from an estimated dsge model this paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of the ecb s quantitative easing programme using an open economy dsge model estimated with bayesian techniques using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector shock decompositions suggest a positive contribution of ecb qe to ea year on year output growth and inflation of up to 0 4 and 0 5 pp in the standard linearised version of the model allowing for an occasionally binding zero bound constraint by using piecewise linear solution techniques raises the positive impact up to 1 0 and 0 7 pp respectively

optimal long run inflation with occasionally binding financial constraints abstract this paper studies the optimal long run inflation rate in a simple new keynesian model with occasionally binding collateral constraints that intermediate good firms face on hiring labor the paper finds that the optimal long run annual inflation rate is around 1 5 if the economy is hit by a total factor productivity tfp shock and nearly 2 5 if the economy is subject to a markup shock the shadow value of the collateral constraint is akin to an endogenous cost push shock differently from usual cost push shocks however this shock is asymmetric as it takes non negative values only since the mean of this asymmetric endogenous cost push shock is positive inflation is also positive on average in addition a binding collateral constraint resembles a time varying tax on labor which the monetary authority can smooth by setting a positive inflation rate more generally the basic result is related to standard ramsey theory in that optimal policy smoothes distortions over time

optimal monetary policy at the zero interest rate bound what should a central bank do when faced with a weak aggregate demand even after reducing the short term nominal interest rate to zero to address this question we solve a central bank s intertemporal loss minimization problem in which the non negativity constraint on nominal interest rates is explicitly considered we find that the optimal path is characterized by policy inertia in the sense that a zero interest rate policy should be continued for a while even after the natural rate of interest returns to a positive level by making such a commitment the central bank is able to achieve higher expected inflation lower long term nominal interest rates and a weaker domestic currency in the adverse periods when the natural rate of interest significantly deviates from a steady state level

the consumption response to positive and negative income shocks abstract a set of newly added questions in the 2011 2014 bank of england nmg consulting survey reveals that british households tend to change their consumption by significantly more in reaction to temporary and unanticipated falls in income than to rises of the same size household balance sheet characteristics such as high debt to income ratios and small liquidity buffers concerns about credit market access and higher subjective risk of lower future income account for a sizable share of this spending asymmetry our findings have important implications for predicting the response of aggregate consumption to expansionary and contractionary macroeconomic policies

on the effectiveness of loan to value regulation in a multiconstraint framework models in the infinite horizon macro housing literature often assume that borrowers are constrained exclusively by the loan to value ltv ratio motivated by the swedish microdata i explore an alternative arrangement where borrowers are constrained by a collateral constraint and by a debt service to income ratio while stricter ltv limits are often considered as a measure to tackle the rise in household indebtedness i find that policy designed to lower the maximum permissible ltv ratio may actually leave the debt to gdp ratio unchanged and increase housing prices in equilibrium if borrowers are bound by two constraints at the same time

the effects of the near zero interest rate policy in a regime switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model abstract standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models cannot explain the near zero interest rate policy near zirp by the federal reserve i study two methods of modeling the near zirp in dsge models the perfect foresight model and the markov regime switching model developed in this paper the near zirp has a significant expansionary effect and the regime switching model generates a more realistic predicted path of macro variables than the perfect foresight model furthermore the government purchases multiplier in the near zirp regime is smaller than what the literature finds at the zero lower bound zlb and the contractionary effects of higher productivity found by the recent literature at the zlb are not present in the regime switching model

structural changes in the us economy is there a role for monetary policy this paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in output growth and inflation dynamics in the us we identify a policy shock and a policy rule in at ime varying coefficients var using robust sign restrictions the transmission of policy shocks has been relatively stable the variance of the policy shock has decreased over time but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflation and output growth volatility and persistence we find little evidence of a significant increase in the long run response of the interest rate to inflation a more aggressive inflation policy in the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs

when the u s catches a cold canada sneezes a lower bound tale told by deep learning abstract the canadian economy was not initially hit by the 2007 2009 great recession but ended up having a prolonged episode of the effective lower bound elb on nominal interest rates to investigate the canadian the elb experience we build a baby totem model a scaled down version of the terms of trade economic model totem of the bank of canada our model includes 49 nonlinear equations and 21 state variables to solve such a high dimensional model we develop a projection deep learning algorithm a combination of unsupervised and supervised deep machine learning techniques our findings are as follows the canadian elb episode was contaminated from abroad via large foreign demand shocks prolonged elb episodes are easy to generate with foreign shocks unlike with domestic shocks nonlinearities associated with the elb constraint have virtually no impact on the canadian economy but other nonlinearities do in particular the degree of uncertainty and specific closing condition used to induce the model s stationarity

assessing the effectiveness of saving incentives concluding that iras and 401 k s do increase saving this text provides a fresh cost benefit approach for analyzing the success of savings incentives it compares the new savings to the government tax revenue lost through contributions to iras and 401 k s

quasi monetary and quasi fiscal policy rules at the zero lower bound abstract this paper assesses adjustments at the zero lower bound zlb in an economy incorporating financial frictions and nominal price stickiness we examine the dynamic paths of key variables under recurring real productivity and financial net worth shocks under three alternative policy scenarios removal of the zero lower bound to allow for negative rates quantitative easing policies at the zlb and the use of endogenous tax rates rules for consumption and labor income at the zlb the results show that the fiscal tax rate rules acting like a quasi monetary policy with direct effects on consumption can be as effective as quantitative easing a quasi fiscal policy with indirect effects on investment in times of prolonged crises due to recurring negative shocks

unconventional policies and exchange rate dynamics abstract we study exchange rate dynamics under cooperative and self oriented policies in a two country dsge model with unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies the cooperative solution features a large exchange rate adjustment that cushions the impact of negative shocks and a moderate use of unconventional policy instruments self oriented policies nash equilibrium however entail limited exchange rate movements and an aggressive use of unconventional policies in both countries our results suggest that sizable exchange rate depreciations are not always a symptom of beggar thy neighbor policies they could also reflect a desirable process of external adjustment that improves global welfare

the government spending multiplier in a mis managed liquidity trap i study the impact of a government spending shock in a new keynesian model when monetary policy is set optimally in this framework the economy is at the zero lower bound but expectations are well managed by the central bank as such the multiplier effect of government spending increases on expected inflation is small while the one on output can be larger than one this is consistent with recent empirical evidence on the effects of the 2009 arra

would the bundesbank have prevented the great inflation in the united states abstract policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural vars routinely suggest that bringing alan greenspan back in the 1970s united states would not have prevented the great inflation we show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the bundesbank which is near universally credited for sparing west germany the great inflation would also not have been able to prevent the great inflation in the united states the implausibility of this result sounds a cautionary note on taking the outcome of svar based policy counterfactuals at face value and raises questions on the reliability of such exercises