structural breaks in volatility spillovers between international financial markets contagion or mere interdependence abstract this paper conducts an investigation of volatility transmission between stock markets in hong kong europe and the united states covering the time period from 2000 up to 2011 using intra daily data we compute realized volatility time series for the three markets and employ a heterogeneous autoregressive distributed lag model as our baseline econometric specification motivated by the presence of various crisis events contained in our sample we detect time variation and structural breaks in volatility spillovers particularly during the financial crisis of 2007 we find effects consistent with the notion of contagion suggesting strong and sudden increases in the cross market synchronization of chronologically succeeding volatilities investigating the role of mean breaks and conditional heteroskedasticity in the realized volatilities however we find the latter to be the main driver of breaks in volatility spillovers taking the volatility of realized volatilities into account we find no evidence of contagion anymore

negative international transmission of economic expansion abstract this paper uses a conventional two sector real trade model and demonstrates how within that framework the relative price effect resulting from a demand expansion in one country may quite plausibly generate negative effects in overall activity abroad it is shown how under the chosen assumptions of wage rigidities the transmission of an expansion which occurs through the relative price effect may be decomposed into a an employment effect and b a terms of trade effect either of which may be positive or negative expansions resulting from i an increase in the money supply and ii increases in government expenditure on the importable and exportable commodity are discussed

long memory versus structural breaks in modeling and forecasting realized volatility we explore the possibility of structural breaks in the daily realized volatility of the deutschemark dollar yen dollar and yen deutschemark spot exchange rates with observed long memory behavior we find that structural breaks in the mean can partly explain the persistence of realized volatility we propose a var rv break model that provides superior predictive ability when the timing of future breaks is known with unknown break dates and sizes we find that a var rv i d long memory model provides a robust forecasting method even when the true financial volatility series are generated by structural breaks

contagion and banking crisis international evidence for 2007 2009 abstract policy makers aim to avoid banking crises and although they can to some extent control domestic conditions internationally transmitted crises are difficult to tackle this paper identifies international contagion in banking during the 2007 2009 crisis for 54 economies we identify three channels of contagion systematic idiosyncratic and volatility and find evidence for these in 45 countries banking crises are overwhelmingly associated with the presence of both systematic and idiosyncratic contagion the results reveal that crisis shocks transmitted from a foreign jurisdiction via idiosyncratic contagion increase the likelihood of a systemic crisis in the domestic banking system by almost 37 percent whereas increased exposure via systematic contagion does not necessarily destabilize the domestic banking system thus while policy makers and regulatory authorities are rightly concerned with the systematic transmission of banking crises reducing the potential for idiosyncratic contagion can importantly reduce the consequences for the domestic economy

devaluation keynesian trade models and the monetary approach the role of nominal and real wage rigidity abstract labor market assumptions provide the crucial ingredients by which we distinguish between a keynesian and a classical monetary trade model monetary approach domestic and foreign goods are perfect substitutes and the law of one price holds this minimal model should be appreciated as an income cum price specie flow mechanism although the long run equilibrating process is not discussed in any detail the paper stresses the interplay between demand pull and cost push factors as a result of exchange rate changes

macroeconomic policy interaction under flexible exchange rates a two country model this paper analyses macroeconomic policy interaction in a two country flexible exchange rate model each country has a short run non vertical phillips curve and there is positive transmission of e

econometric issues in the analysis of contagion this paper presents a canonical econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter dependence in a two country market set up it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the solution is not unique and for sufficiently large values of the contagion coefficients it has interesting bifurcation properties with bimodal density functions the extension of the model to herding behaviour is also briefly discussed to identify contagion effects in the presence of inter dependencies the equations for the individual markets or countries must contain country market specific forcing variables this sheds doubt on the general validity of the correlation based tests of contagions recently proposed in the literature which do not involve any country market specific fundamentals finally we show that ignoring inter dependence can introduce an upward bias in the estimate of the contagion coefficient and using monte carlo experiments we further show that this bias could be substantial

international effects of government expenditure in interdependent economies a dynamic analysis of the international transmission of government expenditure shocks under alternative methods of finance is presented the benchmark case of lump sum tax financing yields an expansion in both the short run and the long run levels of domestic activity while crowding out domestic consumption activity abroad declines in the short run and while it is stimulated during the transition long run activity abroad also declines with capital income tax financing the accompanying distortion outweighs the direct expenditure effects so that all these responses are reversed financing with a tax on labour produces ambiguous responses the welfare implications of these policies are also examined

roughing it up including jump components in the measurement modeling and forecasting of return volatility a rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and forecasting via use of realized variation measures constructed from high frequency returns coupled with simple modeling procedures building on recent theoretical results in barndorff nielsen and shephard 2004a 2005 for related bi power variation measures the present paper provides a practical and robust framework for non parametrically measuring the jump component in asset return volatility in an application to the dm exchange rate the s p500 market index and the 30 year u s treasury bond yield we find that jumps are both highly prevalent and distinctly less persistent than the continuous sample path variation process moreover many jumps appear directly associated with specific macroeconomic news announcements separating jump from non jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model we find that almost all of the predictability in daily weekly and monthly return volatilities comes from the non jump component our results thus set the stage for a number of interesting future econometric developments and important financial applications by separately modeling forecasting and pricing the continuous and jump components of the total return variation process

correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets the short run interdependence of prices and price volatility across three major international stock markets is studied daily opening and closing prices of major stock indexes for the tokyo london and new york stock markets are examined the analysis utilizes the autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic arch family of statistical models to explore these pricing relationships evidence of price volatility spillovers from new york to tokyo london to tokyo and new york to london is observed but no price volatility spillover effects in other directions are found for the pre october 1987 period article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

an empirical comparison of flexible demand system functional forms this paper compares the performance of eight frequently used flexible forms that are either 1 locally flexible 2 effectively globally regular or 3 asymptotically globally flexible results show that the functions with global properties generally perform better particularly those models having asymptotic properties results using us consumption data indicate substitutability among the components of consumption at most data points there is also some interesting substitution volatility around the time of recessions in the usa copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

return and volatility linkages between the us and the german stock market abstract this study investigates the contemporaneous correlation and the spillover effects between the us and the german stock markets around the opening of the two markets it is based on a newly compiled sample of intra day data for the two blue chip indices the dow jones industrial average dow and the deutsche aktienindex dax our main findings are as follows foreign daytime returns can significantly influence the domestic overnight returns this holds for both the us and the german market there is no evidence of spillovers from the previous daytime returns in the us to the dax morning trading short lived mean spillovers especially from the dax noon to 3 30 pm cet segment into the dow can be identified and the uncritical use of the dax opening quote is very likely to produce spurious results due to institutional peculiarities to avoid this problem we propose a proxy for the dax opening that appears satisfactory

long memory and structural changes in the forward discount an empirical investigation abstract we analyze the evidence for long memory and structural changes in the five g7 countries forward discount we establish evidence for long memory by estimating the long memory parameter without allowing for structural breaks we also document evidence for multiple structural breaks in the mean of the forward discount we then adjust for structural changes in the forward discount rate and re estimate the long memory parameter after removing the breaks we still find evidence of stationary long memory in each country s forward discount

continuous time models realized volatilities and testable distributional implications for daily stock returns we provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily speculative returns within the context of the continuous time jump diffusion models traditionally used in asset pricing finance our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures and non parametric jump detection statistics constructed from high frequency intra day data a sequence of simple to implement moment based tests involving various transformations of the daily returns speak directly to the importance of different distributional features and may serve as useful diagnostic tools in the specification of empirically more realistic continuous time asset pricing models on applying the tests to the 30 individual stocks in the dow jones industrial average index we find that it is important to allow for both time varying diffusive volatility jumps and leverage effects to satisfactorily describe the daily stock price dynamics copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

aggregation without separability a generalized composite commodity theorem this paper provides general conditions for aggregating commodities without separable utility these conditions impose weaker and more empirically plausible restrictions on price movements than the currently existing alternative to separability the hicks leontief composite commodity theorem the idea is to allow departures from hicks leontief that take the form of well behaved error terms utility functions that permit generalized composite commodity aggregation include the aids model the translog all homothetic utility functions and any utility function when demands are aggregated to two groups of goods implications of empirical nonstationarity of relative prices for aggregation and demand estimation are considered copyright 1996 by american economic association

world trade patterns economic disturbances and exchange rate management abstract this paper construct and analyzes a three country stochastic model of world trade the objectives of this paper are to investigate the propagation of economic disturbances worldwide and to analyze the nature of optimal exchange rate management on the part of a single country faced with monetary and real disturbances accurring in all its trade patterns the paper analyzes the roles of bilateral trade patterns the type of underlying stochastic disturbances i e monetary vs real and transsitory vs permanent and of the optimality criterion in determining the optimal exchange rate regime

modeling realized volatility on the spanish intra day electricity market abstract this paper models the realized volatility of the hourly prices from the six sessions of the spanish intra day electricity market for the period 2002 2014 based on the sequential organization of the market a model in which realized volatility depends on its own past and that of the other sessions is specified and then modified in two ways on the one hand total variation is decomposed into jump and non jump components and on the other hand egarch innovations are considered estimation results show significant volatility transmissions between the sessions out of sample forecast criteria select egarch innovations for sessions 1 and 2 while simpler models with no egarch innovations and no jump distinction are preferred for sessions 5 and 6 we argue how results are driven by the market structure the market design and the regulation of renewable generation

hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets abstract this paper examines the timing of mean and volatility spillovers between new york and london equity markets using an arch model it is found that the evidence of volatility spillovers between these markets is minimal and have a duration which lasts only an hour or so the most significant effects surround the movement of share prices around the new york opening but these results are not strong several new arch models are estimated including an asymmetric or leverage model and a non linear model which allows big shocks to have a different impact from small shocks

estimating quadratic variation using realized variance this paper looks at some recent work on estimating quadratic variation using realised variance rv that is sums of m squared returns this econometrics has been motivated by the advent of the common availability of high frequency financial return data when the underlying process is a semimartingale we recall the fundamental result that rv is a consistent as m estimator of quadratic variation qv we express concern that without additional assumptions it seems difficult to give any measure of uncertainty of the rv in this context the position dramatically changes when we work with a rather general sv model which is a special case of the semimartingale model then qv is integrated variance and we can derive the asymptotic distribution of the rv and its rate of convergence these results do not require us to specify a model for either the drift or volatility functions although we have to impose some weak regularity assumptions we illustrate the use of the limit theory on some exchange rate data and some stock data we show that even with large values of m the rv is sometimes a quite noisy estimator of integrated variance

the macroeconomic dynamics of tariffs a symmetric two country analysis this paper examines the macroeconomic dynamics of tariffs the adverse microeconomic effects of tariffs have been exhaustively discussed in the international trade literature however there are still some debate and discussion on the effects of tariffs on the macroeconomy in the mainstream open economy macroeconomics literature it is argued that the impact of imposing a tariff is likely to be contractionary under flexible exchange rates 1 this view however has been challenged first by the cambridge economic policy group cripps and godley 3 and more recently by ford and sen 7 given the fact that commercial policies have recently returned to playing a more central role in policy debates this then leads to a revival of interest in the effects of tariffs on macroeconomic aggregates one important drawback of the analyses in the literature is that they all assume that the domestic economy faces a given world price of imports i e they focus exclusively on small open economies with virtually no attention being devoted to two country models 2 it is surely a question of relevance to examine the cross country impact of protection although considerable effort has been devoted to examine the international transmission of fiscal and monetary policies recently corden and turnovsky 2 svensson and van wijnbergen 13 little has been done on commercial policies in a two country framework 3 it is our intention therefore to relax the small country assumption to study the transmission effect of tariffs in this paper we discuss how likely a tariff will be beggar thy neighbor our main concern is the dynamic effects of a tariff on domestic and foreign aggregates we pay special attention to the distinction between anticipated and unanticipated permanent tariff changes 4 the case of a temporary tariff is also examined the analysis is conducted in a modified two country mun

international policy design and the sustainability of policy bargains events of the past decade and the persistence of the worldwide recession have underlined the interdependence of the major economics competitive devaluations first illustrated the dangers of unilateral decisions and politicians have regularly called for concerted policies since the bonn economic summit in 1978 economic theory has shown that coordinated policies can bring gains but the question of whether those gains will be significant and how they will be distributed remains unanswered remarkably few empirical results on how interdependence should affect policy design or even on the signs of spillovers between economies have been produced this paper estimates the costs of uncoordinated policies to the us and eec economies and also the potential gains and risks in cooperation it focuses particularly on the process of determining rational policy bargains and whether in an international context such bargains are likely to be sustainable

some contagion some interdependence more pitfalls in tests of financial contagion this paper develops a test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis which generalizes existing tests and applies it to the international effects of the hong kong stock market crisis of october 1997 contagion is defined as a structural break in the international transmission of financial shocks for plausible values of the variance of country specific shocks in hong kong our test finds evidence of contagion for 5 countries out of a sample of 17 this is in sharp contrast with the findings of recent literature according to which there is no contagion only interdependence we show that this strong result in the literature is due to arbitrary and unrealistic restrictions on the variance of country specific shocks

the international transmission of economic shocks in a three country world under mixed exchange rates the international transmission of economic disturbances is analysed in a three country world where two countries have no macroeconomic impact on a third country but are large enough to influence each other under a system of mixed exchange rates a system that combines the fixed exchange rates fers among two ec member countries germany and france and the flexible exchange rates flers towards a third country the rest of the world usa we find that a positive output demand shock originating in germany or france has a positive effect on domestic output but due to a special third country effect is likely to produce a contractionary impact on foreign output negative transmission while the total effect on the world economy is expansionary money supply shocks in either germany or france have identical effects on the output of the two countries the fler component of the mer regime serves as an important tool for dampening the impact of us shocks on the output of the ec