privatisation around the world evidence from panel data this paper presents new evidence about privatisation processes and their determinants from a panel of 34 countries over the 1977 99 period the empirical analysis shows that privatisation takes place typically in wealthy and democratic countries endowed with deep and liquid stock markets and is affected by the governing political majority and public sector budget constraints but the extent of privatisation in terms of revenues and stakes sold appears more limited in civil law countries where shareholders are poorly protected banks powerful and capital markets less developed

political institutions and central bank independence a cross country analysis using three quantitative measures of central bank independence we apply ols and tsls regression methods to investigate the possible correlation between political liberty political instability and central bank independence for a sample of western democracies and highly democratic developing countries we show that cukierman s legal independence index is positively correlated with political freedom and regime political stability it is negatively correlated with party political stability for a sample of developing countries that excludes dictatorships we show that a special index of legal central bank autonomy is positively associated with political freedom and political stability finally we observe that for the same sample of nations the turnover index of central bank independence is not sensitive to our political variables

taxes on tax exempt bonds implicit tax rates priced in the cross section of municipal bonds are approximately two to three times as high as statutory income tax rates with implicit tax rates close to 100 using retail trades and above 70 for interdealer trades these implied tax rates can be identified because a portion of secondary market municipal bond trades involves income taxes after valuing the tax payments market discount bonds which carry income tax liabilities trade at yields around 25 basis points higher than com parable municipal bonds not subject to any taxes the high sensitivities of municipal bond prices to tax rates can be traced to individual retail traders dominating dealers and other institutions the issue of how taxes affect asset prices is an important issue in finance accounting and economics in theoretical models examining the effect of taxes

taxing times taxation divided societies and the informal economy in northern nigeria this paper challenges the notion that taxing the informal economy provides a mechanism for increasing popular political voice and rebuilding the social contract it contends that current arguments for taxing the informal economy suffer from a eurocentric understanding of taxation and state formation and a fiscally essentialist and undifferentiated notion of the informal economy drawing on fieldwork in northern nigeria this paper shows that history gender wealth and ethno religious identity influence how taxing the informal economy shapes governance outcomes evidence from nigeria suggests an inverse relationship between informal economy taxation and political voice posing the risk that increased taxation will exacerbate social divisions rather than rebuild the social contract

incomplete contracts and privatization the paper offers a selective survey on the incomplete contracts approach to privatization furthermore a simple model of privatization to an owner manager is developed in which different allocations of ownership rights lead to different allocations of inside information about the firm which in turn affect allocative and productive efficiency in this model privatization is a commitment device of the government to credibly reward the manager for a successful cost reduction and to harden his budget constraint

the marginal welfare cost of public funds theory and estimates abstract we derive a general analytic formula for the marginal welfare cost mwc of public funds without imposing restrictive assumptions on preferences or technologies the framework encompasses the various special cases previously considered and reconciles the disparities among the reported estimates of mwc unresolved differences in existing estimates are fully explained by appropriate interpretations of intended thought experiments and alternative assumptions about the elasticity of labor supply with respect to public spending further progress in measuring mwc requires empirical estimation of labor supply functions that include government spending as an explanatory variable

toward a theory of regulation for developing countries following jean jacques laffont s lead the efficient operation and expansion of infrastructures in developing countries is crucial for growth and poverty reduction however recent reforms aimed at improving the performance of these sectors have had limited success evidence suggests that in many instances this was because the traditional regulatory theory relied on by policymakers was not suitable for the institutional context in developing countries this article surveys more recent theoretical work focusing on problems with regulation in these countries at the heart of the survey is the work of jean jacques laffont who in the last decade of his life set about developing a theoretical framework for regulation in developing countries we consider the implications of his work which focused on the key institutional limitations faced in developing countries we then discuss where experience suggests that there are important omissions from this modeling bringing in extensions and alternative approaches pursued by other authors we conclude by summarizing the key ways in which regulatory policy will be different when institutions are weak overall we find that an understanding of the institutional context and its implications are crucial when designing a regulatory framework for developing countries

taxation and political mobilization evidence from andhra pradesh abstractthis article empirically investigates whether there are differences in a region s taxation burden on the basis of support for the centralized state government in the indian state of andhra pradesh using randomness introduced by close election outcomes this article finds that the government collected less tax revenues where opposition parties were more successful the decline in tax revenue was most likely targeted at agricultural producers and a similar pattern is found in other available agricultural policies these results are consistent with a model in which it is optimal for a centralized government to catch up in elections it trails as opposed to bolstering existing leads furthermore these results suggest that taxation responds to electoral pressures and that agricultural producers in particular are targeted during times of political competition

long term drivers of taxation in francophone west africa 1893 2010 abstract which factors have driven fiscal revenue in sub saharan africa in the long run we address this question by studying quantitatively the long term relationship between fiscal outcomes economic expansion and external dependency in four francophone west african countries benin cote d ivoire niger and senegal between 1893 and 2010 using panel co integration modelling we find a long term relationship between on the one hand tax revenue and local economic development proxied by international trade and on the other hand tax revenue and developments of the economy and taxation in the former colonizing power france the results indicate that economic expansion has been a significant factor in driving the long term development of tax revenue in west africa just as it was in historical europe but also point to the historical vulnerability and external dependency of the fiscal systems of the four west african countries we suggest that the wider implication of these results is that they point to the importance of deepening our understanding of how domestic contexts interact with external economic and institutional external forces to shape african fiscal systems in contrast to factors such as inter state warfare that are ubiquitous in narratives of historical european taxation and state development

no taxation without information deterrence and self enforcement in the value added tax abstract claims that the vat facilitates tax enforcement by generating paper trails on transactions between firms contributed to widespread vat adoption worldwide but there is surprisingly little evidence this paper analyzes the role of third party information for vat enforcement through two randomized experiments among over 400 000 chilean firms announcing additional monitoring has less impact on transactions that are subject to a paper trail indicating the paper trail s preventive deterrence effect this leads to strong enforcement spillovers up the vat chain these findings confirm that when taking evasion into account significant differences emerge between otherwise equivalent forms of taxation jel d83 h25 h26 k34 o17

infrastructure and public utilities privatization in developing countries should governments in developing countries promote private ownership and deregulated prices in noncompetitive sectors or should they run publicly owned firms and regulate prices at the expense of rents to insiders a theoretical model is used to answer these normative questions the analysis focuses on the tradeoff between fiscal benefits and consumer surplus during privatization of noncompetitive sectors privatization transfers control rights to private interests and eliminates public subsidies yielding benefits to taxpayers at the cost of increased prices for consumers in developing countries where budget constraints are tight privatization and price liberalization may be optimal for low profitability industries but suboptimal for more profitable industries and once a market has room for more than one firm governments may prefer to regulate the industry without a credible regulatory agency regulation is achieved through public ownership

a theoretical approach to dual practice regulations in the health sector internationally there is wide cross country heterogeneity in government responses to dual practice in the health sector this paper provides a uniform theoretical framework to analyze and compare some of the most common regulations we focus on three interventions banning dual practice offering rewarding contracts to public physicians and limiting dual practice including both limits to private earnings of dual providers and limits to involvement in private activities an ancillary objective of the paper is to investigate whether regulations that are optimal for developed countries are adequate for developing countries as well our results offer theoretical support for the desirability of different regulations in different economic environments

exchange of cost information in oligopoly when do oligopolists gain by sharing their private information about their costs with one another what are the social welfare effects of such information exchange i study these questions by comparing the oligopolists expected profits under a cost sharing agreement with their expected profits in the bayesian equilibrium that would arise without cost sharing i also analyse the firms decisions to form a trade association to share their cost data under conditions of linear demand and cournot behaviour industrywide information exchange is the unique point in the core of the trade association membership game the exchange of cost data increases expected profits and welfare but reduces expected consumer surplus cost sharing increases efficiency by raising the market shares of lower cost firms and reducing the variability of aggregate output consumer surplus is diminished however because the variance of output is reduced and consumer surplus is a convex function of output

municipal bond liquidity and default risk this paper examines the pricing of municipal bonds i use three distinct complementary approaches to decompose municipal bond spreads into default and liquidity components and find that default risk accounts for 74 to 84 of the average spread after adjusting for tax exempt status the first approach estimates the liquidity component using transaction data the second measures the default component with credit default swap data and the third is a quasi natural experiment that estimates changes in default risk around pre refunding events the price of default risk is high given the rare incidence of municipal default and implies a high risk premium

synthetic or real the equilibrium effects of credit default swaps on bond markets we provide a model of nonredundant credit default swaps cdss building on the observation that cdss have lower trading costs than bonds cds introduction involves a trade off it crowds out existing demand for the bond but improves the bond allocation by allowing long term investors to become levered basis traders and absorb more of the bond supply we characterize conditions under which cds introduction raises bond prices the model predicts a negative cds bond basis as well as turnover and price impact patterns that are consistent with empirical evidence we also show that a ban on naked cdss can raise borrowing costs

winners and losers from the privatization and regulation of utilities lessons from a general equilibrium model of argentina a computable general equilibrium cqe model is used to estimate the macroeconomic and distributional effects of the privatization and regulation of utilities in argentina begun in 1989 based on data available after the privatization that indicate different kinds of efficiency gains in electricity gas water and telecommunications both the privatization and effective regulation are estimated to yield significant macroeconomic benefits gains from the privatization accrue mainly to high income classes while gains from the effective regulation of newly privatized utilities accrue mainly to low income classes computable general equilibrium cge estimates of overall employment effects suggest that privatization was not a major contributor to the dramatic rise in unemployment in argentina between 1993 and 1995 this rise was more likely due to the tequila effect of an interest rate shock

politics and perceived country creditworthiness in international banking this paper marks a departure from most previous studies of country creditworthiness in international banking because it incorporates systematically generated quantitative indicators of political instability in the analysis the authors empirically test for the effects of political instability on perceived country creditworthiness using data on thirty heavily indebted developing countries for the period 1967 86 in addition to economic factors they examine the effects of three types of political instability regime change political legitimacy and armed conflict the authors also distinguish between proximate instability and chronic instability they find significant effects of proximate instability particularly in governmental regime on indicators of countries perceived creditworthiness copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

optimal combination of energy crops under different policy scenarios the case of northern greece energy crops production is considered as environmentally benign and socially acceptable offering ecological benefits over fossil fuels through their contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gases and acidifying emissions energy crops are subjected to persistent policy support by the eu despite their limited or even marginally negative impact on the greenhouse effect the present study endeavors to optimize the agricultural income generated by energy crops in a remote and disadvantageous region with the assistance of linear programming the optimization concerns the income created from soybean sunflower proxy for energy crop and corn different policy scenarios imposed restrictions on the value of the subsidies as a proxy for eu policy tools the value of inputs costs of capital and labor and different irrigation conditions the results indicate that the area and the imports per energy crop remain unchanged independently of the policy scenario enacted furthermore corn cultivation contributes the most to ifncome maximization whereas the implemented cap policy plays an incremental role in uptaking an energy crop a key implication is that alternative forms of motivation should be provided to the farmers beyond the financial ones in order the extensive use of energy crops to be achieved

monopoly and soft budget constraint a benevolent government may decide to subsidize an unprofitable monopoly whose profits do not capture all the social surplus from its production anticipating this the firm may underinvest in order to become unprofitable and extract state subsidies the resulting welfare loss may exceed by many times the deadweight cost of monopoly pricing committing the firm to a price ceiling may soften its budget constraint and thus reduce welfare competition can harden budget constraints in industries in which free entry is socially excessive

recent theoretical work on the soft budget constraint the soft budget constraint is a syndrome that was identified and studied by janos kornai in his analysis of centrally planned economies see kornai 1980 the syndrome is said to arise when a seemingly unprofitable enterprise is bailed out by the government or the enterprise s creditors in other words the enterprise is not held to a fixed budget but finds its budget constraint softened by the infusion of additional credit when it is on the verge of failure kornai viewed the soft budget constraint as a crucial ingredient for explaining the salient features of socialist economic performance in particular the pervasiveness of shortages one interesting puzzle is why centrally planned economies have been particularly susceptible to the influence of the soft budget constraint the capitalist world is hardly immune as the recent financial crisis in asia attests but on the whole it has proved less vulnerable indeed the very origin of the soft budget constraint and the mechanism by which it gives rise to shortages and other undesirable effects are also obviously important questions although kornai s work has long been well known and appreciated answers to these associated theoretical questions have been hazarded only recently in maskin 1996 i surveyed some of the initial efforts in this direction including mathias dewatripont and maskin 1995 which argues that centralization of credit can give rise to soft budget constraints because it facilitates the refinancing of

job additionality and deadweight spending in perfectly competitive industries the case for optimal employment subsidies abstract this paper links the old literature on employment subsidies with the current theories of contract and regulation one important source of inefficiency of employment subsidies is non additional employment and deadweight spending which occur when private firms receive a subsidy for jobs that would have been created without the subsidy we identify the asymmetry of information between the government and the private firm as the source of these problems when the government proposes optimal incentive contracts to promote employment we show that all employment creations are additional and that the deadweight spending is equal to the information rent which may be null when firms types are discrete

income volatility of energy crops the case of rapeseed abstract the adoption of energy crops may generate significant benefits from reduced foreign energy dependence improved rural economies and achieved environmental goals nevertheless important issues arise as these crops are strongly competed by other presumably more standard uses of farmland and their choice will be restrictive unless profit becomes a powerful motive for farmers the abolishment of specific policies supporting first generation biofuels gives rise to the question whether the tactic of bioenergy land use change is just to be abandoned by european farmers the present paper endeavours to evaluate the reduction in income volatility in the case of the rapeseed energy crop a cultivation extensively used in biofuels in the european union employing the concept of entropy the results provide a vague picture regarding the limitations in rapeseed income volatility among the european member states consequently the issue of income uncertainties as a determinant of bioenergy cropland demand has been left pending the innovation of the study lies in the use of entropy concept and the kapetanios and shin unit root test in the case of income volatility for energy crops in the european context the estimation of the random components with the assistance of auto regressive integrated mean average models may provide a tool for confining income uncertainties with the assistance of other policy schemes including insurances within the common agricultural policy

tests for unit root versus threshold specification with an application to the purchasing power parity relationship we consider modeling the real exchange rate by a stationary three regime self exciting threshold autoregressive setar model with possibly a unit root in the middle regime this representation is consistent with purchasing power parity in the presence of trading costs our main contribution is to provide statistical tools for testing unit root versus a setar first we show that a setar with a unit root in the middle regime is stationary and mixing under reasonable assumptions second we derive analytically the asymptotic distribution of our unit root test under the null using monthly real exchange rate data our test rejects the null of unit root against a threshold process for five european series

from the static to the dynamic some problems in the theory of taxation abstract this paper considers problems and issues that arise when we attempt to extend the static theory of taxation and production planning to a dynamic context and to combine that theory with theories of growth the reasons dynamic theory is less developed include problems with the analytical tractability of even those dynamic models which attempt to retain the basic structure of the static model furthermore difficult and interesting issues arise in a dynamic context which are either not present or are much less severe in the static theory special attention is paid to these new issues and the difficulties they pose

farm level constraints on the domestic supply of perennial energy crops in the uk abstract there are a number of estimates of the land area that could potentially be dedicated to perennial energy crops such as short rotation coppice src willow and miscanthus in the uk but little is known about how farmers will respond to the opportunities presented by these relatively novel crops perennial energy crops face competition from other arguably more flexible uses of farmland and if not seen as attractive propositions to individual farmers they will not be grown farmers decisions are therefore a key constraint on potential supply this paper reviews the policy background and considers whether policy is based on any consideration of likely supply response before presenting outcomes of focus groups composed of farmers who already grow or are considering growing perennial energy crops there appear to be a number of barriers to adoption in addition to concerns over the security of contracts the current high wheat price increases the opportunity cost of committing land to perennial energy crops there are also worries about the impact of willow roots on field drains and the cost of returning the land to other uses this paper outlines a number of issues of importance to policy makers and suggests future research needs

the pitfalls of water privatization failure and reform in malaysia summary this paper examines why private participation in infrastructure ppi in water continues to be promoted despite poor results in developing countries it argues that the main characteristics of infrastructure discourage private investment and necessitate state subsidies which dilute private risks and incentives and facilitate rent seeking as a result ppi is characterized by public financing selective private investments and inconclusive efficiency gains this is reflected globally and in malaysia where ppi continues to be promoted because it provides captive rents the political factors that drive ppi invariably compromise institutional solutions as malaysia s water sector reforms illustrate

infrastructure public private partnerships in the developing world lessons from recent experience abstractseeking to address inefficient and costly infrastructure delivery governments over the past two decades have turned to public private partnerships ppps to build and operate infrastructure the key characteristic of ppps is the outsourcing and bundling of project delivery components for example design build finance operate structured to incentivise the builder operator to incorporate long term operating cost considerations in the design and construction phases of a project and reduce coordination costs this article reviews the benefits and drawbacks of ppps and the experience to date focusing in particular on developing economies relative to traditional procurement ppps are complex and require governments to anticipate and plan for contingencies and conduct monitoring and enforcement of long term contracts we argue that institutional capacity is a key determinant of ppp success and in mitigating potentially welfare reducing contract renegotiations evident in the latin american exp

an econometric analysis of telecom competition privatization and regulation in africa and latin america this paper explores the effects of privatization competition and regulation on telecommunications performance in 30 african and latin american countries from 1984 through 1997 fixed effects regressions reveal that competition measured by mobile operators not owned by the incumbent is correlated with increases in the per capita number of mainlines payphones and connection capacity and with decreases in the price of local calls privatization combined with an independent regulator is positively correlated with telecom performance measures privatization alone however is associated with few benefits and is negatively correlated with connection capacity

mean variance analysis of supply chains under wholesale pricing and profit sharing schemes in this paper we explore the use of a wholesale pricing and profit sharing scheme wpps for coordinating supply chains under the mean variance mv decision framework we first analytically establish the necessary and sufficient conditions for coordinating the centralized supply chain by wpss we then show that there exists a unique equilibrium of the stackelberg game with wpps in the decentralized case after that we discuss the information asymmetric case in which the retailer can be benefited by pretending to be more risk averse finally we propose a new measure for the manufacturer to prevent this cheating from happening insights are generated

aid nontraded goods and the transfer paradox in small countries this paper constructs a model of the transfer paradox for a small open economy with nontraded goods it demonstrates that increased production of nontraded goods can change their domestic price so as to offset the otherwise beneficial effect of aid and under certain conditions to create a transfer paradox even in a small country the model is estimated with time series data for 44 aid dependent countries for the period 1970 90 the results support the model and show that the nontraded goods expansion effect is more likely to cause immiserization than harry g johnson s 1967 tariff distorting export displacement effect

income tax compliance in india an empirical analysis abstract aggregate data are used to study determinants of income tax revenues and taxpayer compliance in india during 1965 1966 to 1992 1993 the estimates show that both revenues collected and compliance were significantly affected by tax structure marginal tax rates and exemption limit in addition inflation as well as declining assessment intensity had a significant negative effect while traditional enforcement tools searches penalties and prosecution activity had only a limited effect best practice enforcement assessment and tax structure policies could have yielded at most a 90 revenue increase leaving india s income tax performance below the average of countries with similar gdp per capita thorough reform of tax administration is therefore needed to raise income tax collection in india to international standards

government outsourcing public contracting with private monopoly the article studies the impact of the government budget constraint on the regulation of natural monopolies in adverse selection contexts the government maximises total surplus but incurs some cost of public funds a la laffont and tirole 1993 government outsourcing is proposed as an alternative to regulation in which firms freely enter the market and choose their prices and output levels however government can contract ex post with the private firms this ex post contracting set up allows more flexibility than regulation where governments commit to both investment and operation cash flows this is especially relevant in case of high technological uncertainties

municipal debt and marginal tax rates is there a tax premium in asset prices we study the marginal tax rate incorporated into short term municipal rates using municipal swap market data using an affine model we identify the marginal tax rate and the credit liquidity spread in 1 week tax exempt rates as well as their associated risk premia the marginal tax rate averages 38 0 and is related to stock bond and commodity returns the tax risk premium is negative consistent with the strong countercyclical nature of after tax fixed income cash flows these results demonstrate that tax risk is a systematic asset pricing factor and help resolve the muni bond puzzle

tax me if you can ethnic geography democracy and the taxation of agriculture in africa it is typically assumed that african leaders enact policies that benefit their ethnoregional group using all types of patronage crop production and political power are geographically concentrated in many african countries and this paper exploits this overlap to cast doubt on this conventional wisdom it shows using data on 50 country crop combinations that cash crop farmers who are ethnically identified with the head of state face higher taxes furthermore democratic regimes impose lower taxes this paper shows that farmers who have few alternatives face higher taxes african leaders have used local intermediaries to exert control over the countryside and to ensure that farmers do not support alternative candidates it suggests that as leaders are better at selecting and monitoring these intermediaries in their home areas they can extract more from the majority at home than abroad using taxes on cash crops which are regionally but not individually targetable

dealer intermediation and price behavior in the aftermarket for new bond issues municipal bonds trade in decentralized broker dealer markets and are underpriced when issued but unlike equities the average price rises slowly over several days newly issued municipal bonds have high levels of price dispersion and the average price rises because the mix of trade sizes changes over time while large trades occur close to the reoffering price small trades occur between the reoffering price to as much as 5 above the reoffering price using a mixed distribution model we quantify the losses uninformed traders or issuers give up to broker dealers

estimating border tax evasion in mozambique abstract the relationship between border tax rates and evasion is examined for mozambique using the methodology developed by fisman and wei 2004 we find that high tax rates are associated with high levels of under reporting of import values and that tax rates have a strong and positive effect on tax evasion results also strongly confirm the presence of fraudulent classification of merchandise into lower taxed product categories finally analysis of the revenue implications of lower trade taxes finds that the revenue curve is quite flat but remains upward sloping with respect to the tax rate when only evasion is considered

credit and efficiency in centralized and decentralized economies we study a credit model where because of adverse selection unprofitable projects may nevertheless be financed indeed they may continue to be financed even when shown to be low quality if sunk costs have already been incurred we show that credit decentralization offers a way for creditors to commit not to refinance such projects thereby discouraging entrepreneurs from undertaking them initially thus decentralization provides financial discipline nevertheless we argue that it puts too high a premium on short term returns the model seems pertinent to two issues soft budget constraint problems in centralized economies and differences between anglo saxon and german japanese financing practices

taxation base in developing countries abstract informal sectors are larger in developing countries than in rich countries this is a result of higher fixed costs of entry into the formal economy in developing countries we show that raising barriers to entry is consistent with a deliberate government policy for raising tax revenue by generating market power and hence rents for the permitted entrants market entry fees foster the emergence of large taxpayers the rents can be readily confiscated by the government through entry fees and taxes on profits at a low administrative cost the relevance of the theory is assessed with a sample of 64 countries empirical analysis supports the results of the paper

credit swap valuation this review of the pricing of credit swaps a form of derivative security that can be viewed as default insurance on loans or bonds begins with a description of the credit swap contract turns to pricing by reference to spreads over the risk free rate of par floating rate bonds of the same quality and then considers model based pricing the role of asset swap spreads as a reference for pricing credit swaps is also considered

a simple model of endogenous tax reform abstract this paper presents a model of optimal taxation that is useful for understanding governments incentives to switch from wage to consumption taxation the key ingredient is the fact that governments cannot precommit policy although under precommitment governments would tax only wages there is an ex post incentive to switch to the consumption tax as savings grow numerical examples for a nested ces utility function find that for reasonable parameter values equilibrium features a switch to consumption taxation in particular the model produces this tax reform when parameterized as in auerbach and kotlikoff s 1987 study

regulation competition and liberalization in many countries throughout the world regulators are struggling to determine whether and how to introduce competition into regulated industries this essay examines the complexities involved in the liberalization process while stressing the importance of case specific analyses this essay distinguishes liberalization policies that generally are procompetitive from corresponding anticompetitive liberalization policies

developing a sustainability framework for the assessment of bioenergy systems the potential for biomass to contribute to energy supply in a low carbon economy is well recognised however for the sector to contribute fully to sustainable development in the uk specific exploitation routes must meet the three sets of criteria usually recognised as representing the tests for sustainability economic viability in the market and fiscal framework within which the supply chain operates environmental performance including but not limited to low carbon dioxide emissions over the complete fuel cycle and social acceptability with the benefits of using biomass recognised as outweighing any negative social impacts this paper describes an approach to developing a methodology to establish a sustainability framework for the assessment of bioenergy systems to provide practical advice for policy makers planners and the bioenergy industry and thus to support policy development and bioenergy deployment at different scales the approach uses multi criteria decision analysis mcda and decision conferencing to explore how such a process is able to integrate and reconcile the interests and concerns of diverse stakeholder groups

halving global poverty the goal of central importance to this paper is to cut in half the proportion of people living below 1 a day from around 30 percent of the developing world s population in 1990 to 15 percent by 2015 based on population projections in 1990 this would correspond to around one billion people exiting poverty this paper begins by discussing poverty trends on a global scale where the poor are located in the world and how their numbers have been changing over time it then discusses the relationship of economic growth and income distribution to poverty reduction finally it suggests an evidence based agenda for poverty reduction in the developing world full text available at official url

taxation wage controls and the informal sector abstract in this paper we study the effects of taxation and wage controls in a developing economy with an informal sector for that purpose we build a model with firm heterogeneity in which a formal and an informal sector endogenously emerge in some productive branches of the economy based on the assumption that the marginal cost of tax and regulation evasion increases with the size of the firm our model offers an explanation for the observed discontinuity in the distribution of firms size the missing middle three forms of dualism scale wage and evasion consistent with market segmentation are obtained the model accounts for the presence of waiting unemployment that seems particularly pervasive in urban regions a computable general equilibrium cge model for cameroon is built incorporating these features various reforms of the tax and regulation system are simulated and their effects on the extent of the informal sector are analyzed

powering up developing countries through integration power market integration is analyzed in a two country model with nationally regulated firms and costly public funds if the generation costs between the two countries are too similar negative business stealing outweighs efficiency gains so that the subsequent integration welfare decreases in both regions integration is welfare enhancing when the cost difference between two regions is large enough the benefits from export profits increase the total welfare in the exporting country whereas the importing country benefits from lower prices in this case market integration also improves incentives to invest compared to autarky the investment levels remain inefficient however especially for transportation facilities free riding reduces incentives to invest in these public good components of the network whereas business stealing tends to decrease the capacity to finance new investment

public goods hidden income and tax evasion some nonstandard results from the warm glow model abstract a large literature explores crowd out in situations where public goods are jointly provided work in this area typically depicts a tax system where individuals take taxes as given but in some settings such as those in developing economies efforts to evade or avoid taxes may be widespread using the canonical warm glow model this paper considers joint public good provision in a setting where individuals can evade taxes by hiding their income the model s implications change significantly in this setting with hidden income stronger warm glow will lead to greater crowd out not less using research on crowd out and inter family transfers i present suggestive evidence that the model s results may help to reconcile divergent estimates of crowd out in the literature

the design of fiscal reforms in revenue constrained developing countries while generalisation is perilous there are many especially small developing countries for which sales taxes and turnover taxes are fairly negligible as revenue sources and for which import duties and export taxes particularly the former are leading revenue sources for evidence from the early i980s see tanzi i987 and greenaway and milner i990 this observation is unsurprising when account is taken of the administrative constraints to which many developing countries are subject sales taxes can be difficult to collect not to mention a complex tax like vat income tax is largely infeasible and often has to take a simple form such as a payroll tax confined in practice to public and large company employment some taxes which would be assumed to be eminently feasible in industrial economies may not generate as much revenue as might be supposed in a developing country for instance tax disks which the law may require heavy goods vehicles to carry may generate a flow of bribes to police and other officials if these are wise enough to set the bribe at a modest level making it cheaper to pay bribes than to buy a disk a cynic might say that the bribes are an unofficial source of revenue if their existence enables the state to get away with paying its officials absurdly low salaries one would have to hope if that argument is accepted that the officials do something socially useful apart from stopping heavy goods vehicles such considerations make it interesting to consider the design of public finance for a country severely constrained in its choice of what musgrave called tax handles that is types of tax instrument which it may practically employ the existing literature for which newbery and stern i987 provides an excellent review throws some light on this issue but the problem is seldom treated explicitly an exception would be dreze and stern i985 whose highly abstract and general treatment of cost benefit analysis theory can be seen to incorporate principles of public finance which fully cover the restricted policy choices which i have in mind because the approach of these authors is so general however it is not easy to extract conclusions for tax design in specific cases this is no criticism of the paper of course as the argument is addressed to cost benefit analysis generally speaking theory has developed in the direction of sophisticated and complex tax systems the next section discusses why this is so from the point of view of theory yet ideal tax systems would be difficult to implement in many developing countries as i shall treat tariffs as a highly feasible revenue

tax morale in latin america in the tax compliance literature there is a lack of empirical evidence on the degree of tax morale in developing countries as a novelty this paper focuses thus on latin america analysing tax morale as a dependent variable and searching for factors that systematically affect tax morale working with the two data sets latinobarometro and world values survey our findings indicate that there is a significant correlation between tax morale and the size of shadow economy furthermore people who said they knew have heard about practised tax avoidance have a significantly lower tax morale than others looking at individuals perception of reasons for tax evasion we found that the tax burden lacking honesty and corruption are seen as the main factors we observed a significantly lower tax morale in south america mexico than in the central american caribbean area furthermore trust in the president and the officials the belief that other individuals obey the law and a pro democratic attitude have a significant positive effect on tax morale

default risk cannot explain the muni puzzle evidence from municipal bonds that are secured by u s treasury obligations fama 1977 and miller 1977 predict that one minus the corporate tax rate will equate after tax yields from comparable taxable and tax exempt bonds empirical evidence shows that long term tax exempt yields are higher than theory predicts two popular explanations for this empirical puzzle are that relative to taxable bonds municipal bonds bear more default risk and include costly call options i study u s government secured municipal bond yields which are effectively default free and nonmalleable these municipal yields display the same tendency to be too high i conclude that differential default risk and call options do not explain the municipal bond puzzle article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

agricultural pricing and public investment abstract aggregate agricultural supply is price inelastic but responsive to investment in agricultural infrastructure irrigation roads research extension thus the government should tax agriculture and finance infrastructure although unlikely to pay for itself directly it will increase taxable agricultural surplus but by raising rural living standards and therefore the supply price of urban labour it reduces urban tax revenue its marginal social product is therefore overstated when measured at world prices though understated at distorted agricultural prices with scale economies in industry the case for taxing and investing in agriculture is strengthened it may allow the economy to escape stagnation

the value of information in a simple duopoly model abstract this paper is concerned with the evaluation of information in a duopoly model in which the cost functions are subject to uncertainty it explores how changes in information about the costs available to either firm affects the welfare of both firms along with the welfare of consumers by comparing the ten possible types of information structures it is shown that information may be detrimental that improved information for one firm may or may not benefit the other firm and or the consumer and that it may be more desirable for a firm to gather information about the rival s cost rather than its own all of these irregular results depend on the values of the variances of the costs and their correlation coefficient

the willingness of farmers to engage with bioenergy and woody biomass production a regional case study from cumbria abstract in this paper we explore the willingness of cumbrian farmers to switch land use from food production to biomass production in a landscape where food production is both heavily subsidised and the area is a centre for tourism this is against a policy background of a switch of subsidies from food production to environmental benefits increased concerns about emissions from farming and an increased demand for renewable energy we identified an awareness of new markets for renewable energy alongside increasing volatility of other crops against a background of increasing demand for food from this our conclusions are that the main short term opportunities for increasing biomass production in this region are through intensifying management of existing woodlands in the medium term as the financial case for biomass crops becomes more certain we can envisage a tipping point which would favour a switch from marginal agricultural land to biomass

taxes and bribery the role of wage incentives this paper presents a simple model to evaluate alternative payment schemes for tax inspectors in the presence of corruption we consider problems of both moral hazard which arises because taking bribes cannot be observed without costly monitoring and adverse selection since not all potential tax inspectors can be identified as being honest or dishonest we identify three wage regimes first one could pay the same wage that a tax inspector could earn elsewhere his reservation wage second one could pay a wage which solves the moral hazard problem i e deters bribery this we call an efficiency wage by analogy with recent models examined i n macro economics third the government could pay a wage below the reservation wage at which only the dishonest become tax inspectors the capitulation wage we make precise the conditions under which each yields the greatest amount o f tax revenues net o f administrative costs many countries in the developing world are undergoing structural adjustment programmes which require fundamental fiscal changes outside agencies advise restoration of budget balance a task which involves expenditure cuts and tax increases the treatment of public employee pay scales often poses a particular dilemma i n this process wages and salaries are a significant component of government expenditures and one important question concerns the extent to which wages rather than employment cuts should be used to save money there is sometimes a reluctance to advocate wage cuts stemming in part from a feeling that this might impair the performance of the public sector hence tanzi 1990 argues that a policy of wage cutting is likely to increase the inefficiency of public sector employees especially at a time when the public sector is expected to play a larger role in restructuring the economy p 16 in the context of tax collection the issue is particularly pressing given the need to raise more tax revenues a reduction in efficiency in this branch of the government i s likely t o mean that fewer returns are processed and when individuals living standards are squeezed their incentive to accept bribes in lieu o f collecting taxes i s increased o n this count i t i s even sometimes suggested that wages of tax inspectors should be increased to aid the effort to the comments of henry bienen john hey and two anonymous referees have been helpful in revising this paper the authors are also grateful t o the john m olin program for the study o f economic organization and public policy at princeton university and the pew charitable trusts for financial support mclaren also acknowledges support from the international finance section of princeton university none of the above should be implicated in any way see for example goode 1984 chapter 1 3 and gould and amaro reyes 1983

on tax efforts and colonial heritage in africa abstract one commonly observed phenomena about taxation in africa are regional differences and the fact that southern african countries have higher levels of shares of taxation in gdp this article argues that the major source of differences in tax effort is the colonial histories of various countries using standard measures of tax effort in a panel data framework and dividing colonial africa along forms of incorporation into the colonial system it shows that african countries and others with similar colonial histories have higher levels of tax effort however the difference disappears when we control for the colonial factor these results hold under different model specifications

why poor countries rely mostly on redistribution in kind abstract we present a model in which the crucial distinction between rich and poor countries is that governments in rich countries have access to a more productive tax collection technology than governments in poor countries since the tax collection technology in poor countries is poor the quality of the public service is low therefore many households at the top of the income distribution opt out of the public service the median voter takes this into consideration and allocates a larger share of the public budget to redistribution in kind public service than to redistribution in cash

agricultural taxation in developing countries a survey of issues and policy this study surveys the experience of agricultural taxation in developing countries in the context of the ongoing policy debate about the tax structure and administration affecting agricultural producers using the examples of a number of countries it analyzes the conceptual and practical problems associated with different tax regimes governments in most countries have reduced indirect export taxes on agricultural producers however the revenue from direct taxes on farmers has not increased a major problem in most countries has been the measurement of actual agricultural income different measures for presumed income have been used with varying success they seem to have the most potential for increased revenue in many countries but their effective implementation is constrained by the political and administrative considerations

regulating a monopolist with unknown costs we consider the problem of how to regulate a monopolistic firm whose costs are unknown to the regulator the regulator s objective is to maximize a linear social welfare function of the consumers surplus and the firm s profit in the optimal regulatory policy prices and subsidies are designed as functions of the firm s cost report so that expected social welfare is maximized subject to the constraints that the firm has nonnegative profit and has no incentive to misrepresent its costs we explicitly derive the optimal policy and analyze its properties in their classic papers dupuit 2 and hotelling 5 considered pricing policies for a bridge that had a fixed cost of construction and zero marginal cost they demonstrated that the pricing policy that maximizes consumer well being is to set price equal to marginal cost and to provide a subsidy to the supplier equal to the fixed cost so that a firm would be willing to provide the bridge this first best solution is based on a number of informational assumptions first the demand function is assumed to be known to both the regulator and to the firm while the assumption of complete information may be too strong the assumption that information about demand is as available to the regulator as it is to the firm does not seem unnatural a second informational assumption is that the regulator has complete information about the cost of the firm or at least has the same information about cost as does the firm this assumption is unlikely to be met in reality since the firm would be expected to have better information about costs than would the regulator as weitzman has stated an essential feature of the regulatory environment i am trying to describe is uncertainty about the exact specification of each firm s cost function in most cases even the managers and engineers most closely associated with production will be unable to precisely specify beforehand the cheapest way to generate various hypothetical output levels because they are yet removed from the production process the regulators are likely to be vaguer still about a firm s cost function 12 p 684 as this observation suggests it is natural to expect that a firm would have better information regarding its costs than would a regulator the purpose of this paper is to develop an optimal regulatory policy for the case in which the regulator does not know the costs of the firm one strategy that a regulator could use in the absence of full information about costs is to give the firm the title to the total social surplus and to delegate the pricing decision to the firm in pursuing its own interests which would then be to maximize the total social surplus the firm would adopt the same marginal cost pricing strategy that the regulator would have imposed if the regulator had

a simple model of the taxable and tax exempt yield curves i examine the anomalous behavior of the taxable and tax exempt yield curves long municipal yields appear too high relative to the equivalent after tax yield that can be earned in treasury or corporate bonds i discuss existing explanations of the problem and propose a simple model that relates the yields of taxable bonds to the yield curve for par tax exempts the ratio of the tax exempt yield to the taxable yield increases with maturity in the model so it is consistent with observed phenomena such as inverted yield curves for taxables and contemporaneous rising yield curves for tax exempts statistical and descriptive comparisons between the yields predicted by the model and observed yields on par bonds that the model has some promise in explaining the apparent anomalies in the behaviors of the two yield curves article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

east asian economic performance miracle or just a pleasant surprise p ublication of the east asian miracle eam world bank 1993 appears to borrow a phrase to have generated more heat than light the eam analysed reasons for the economic success of the eight high performing asian economies hpaes hong kong indonesia japan malaysia republic of korea singapore taiwan and thailand the hope at least of neutral observers was that we would be able to derive lessons regarding effective economic policies from a study of the experiences of the successful east asian economies the general criticism of the report is that it tried to mould the hpaes experiences so that the lessons were consistent with bank policy in the process losing many distinguishing features of the eam more serious criticisms are that the report obfuscated and distorted the truth it is not our intention to reopen debate about the report fully aired in a special issue of world development april 1994 and rodrik 1994 we do wish to address three questions what were the distinguishing features of the east asian economic success that led some observers to claim a miracle what elements of economic policy contributed to their success and are such elements present in the economic policies proposed by the bank in for example adjustment programmes are there features of the hpaes that can be adapted to help design successful policies for other countries put succinctly what did they do that appears so good how did they do it and can others do it writing in 1998 it may appear irrelevant to talk of an east asian miracle as so many of the economies we consider have recently endured currency crises of varying degrees of severity current problems should not detract from the sustained and generally impressive growth achieved by these economies over the

price discovery in illiquid markets do financial asset prices rise faster than they fall we study price discovery in municipal bonds an important otc market as in markets for consumer goods prices rise faster than they fall round trip profits to dealers on retail trades increase in rising markets but do not decrease in falling markets further effective half spreads increase or decrease more when movements in fundamentals favor dealers yield spreads relative to treasuries also adjust with asymmetric speed in rising and falling markets finally intraday price dispersion is asymmetric in rising and falling markets as consumer search theory would predict in a wide variety of consumer markets prices for retail goods rise faster than they fall 1 this asymmetric price adjustment referred to as rockets and feathers is generally understood by economists to be inconsistent with perfect competition between sellers sellers appear to exploit local market power due to the search frictions that their customers face we document asymmetric price adjustment in a major over the counter otc financial market using a comprehensive sample of all trades in municipal bonds over a 5 year period we provide evidence that the asymmetric price adjustment is associated with opportunistic timing by the broker dealers who intermediate trades in the market movements in fundamentals that increase spreads earned by broker dealers are reflected quickly in prices while prices respond more slowly to changes that reduce their spreads further the asymmetries are more pronounced in states where tax treatment of the bonds would induce market segmentation we also document asymmetries in withinday price dispersion as implied by theoretical models of rockets and feathers price adjustments based on costly consumer search and learning