the effects of ownership and benchmark competition an empirical analysis of u s water systems abstract should governments or private firms own water systems can yardstick or benchmark competition effectively discipline utilities little empirical research sheds light on these issues we use a panel dataset that includes every community water system in the united states from 1997 to 2003 to test the effects of ownership and benchmark competition on regulatory compliance we find that ownership does not generally affect compliance with the safe drinking water act sdwa greater benchmark competition however is associated with fewer sdwa violations the results suggest that ownership per se may not matter much but that competition even in its weaker form of benchmarking by consumers or regulators can improve performance

conceptual framework for regional competitiveness budd l and hirmis a k 2004 conceptual framework for regional competitiveness regional studies38 1007 1020 the concept of territorial competitiveness has gained ground in academic policy and practitioner circles in particular urban competitiveness has generated a large literature however there is a danger that competitiveness at a territorial level becomes a conceptual chimera the essential problem is that territorially based actors and agencies seek to position and maintain the utility of their regions and subregions by reference to a set of measures and indicators that are conceptually suspect and often empirically weak the degree to which regions compete depends on a manifold set of factors the paper proposes a conceptual framework for regional competitiveness based on combining the competitive advantage of firms and the comparative advantage of a regional economy the conceptual transmission mechanism to regional competitiveness combines liebenstein s theory of x inefficiency and aggl

efficiency analysis for exogenously fixed inputs and outputs we evaluate by means of mathematical programming formulations the relative technical and scale efficiencies of decision making units dmus when some of the inputs or outputs are exogenously fixed and beyond the discretionary control of dmu managers this approach further develops the work on efficiency evaluation and on estimation of efficient production frontiers known as data envelopment analysis dea we also employ the model to provide efficient input and output targets for dmu managers in a way that specifically accounts for the fixed nature of some of the inputs or outputs we illustrate the approach using real data for a network of fast food restaurants

an historical perspective on the forecasting performance of the treasury model forecasting the growth in uk consumers expenditure drawing upon treasury official economic forecasts vols i ii a series of treasury model tm forecasts of the percentage growth in real total consumers expenditure are derived for the period 1967 to 1989 the one two and three step ahead forecasts examined cover an interesting period which includes major shocks to the uk economy business cycle effects and changes in economic policy whilst a battery of forecast evaluation statistics and tests do not detect any evidence of forecast bias or irrationality over the whole sample split sample analysis provides evidence of a switch from overprediction to underprediction around 1977 in addition the application of modified versions of holden peel 1990 tests provides evidence of the longest horizon forecasts failing to capture the full movement of changes in consumption growth using simple regression and a selection of forecast encompassing tests shorter horizon forecasts are found to dominate longer horizon forecasts a feature which might be expe

econometric evaluation of consumers expenditure equations large errors in forecasting consumption in the late 1980s and early 1990s were a major contribution to the poor performance in economic forecasting overall these errors have been attributed to the inability of existing models to capture important influences on consumer behavior such as the effects of financial deregulation and shifts in expectations revisions to models followed their failure to predict the late 1980s boom an important question is whether these developments help to explain the unanticipated downturn in consumers expenditure in the early 1990s this article presents an appraisal of eight recent u k consumption functions it is found that these models can explain much of the rise in consumption in the late 1980s however forecast errors for the early 1990s while within the historical range are predominantly negative the nature of this overprediction suggests that further research on household finances including the role of housing as collateral is required copyright 1994 by oxford university press

international portfolio nondiversification and exchange rate variability abstract incomplete international portfolio diversification is implied by an equilibrium models of exchange rates with nontraded goods the model can also explain the greater correlation between consumption and income within a country than between consumption across countries nontraded goods make more stringent the elasticity conditions required to explain exchange rate variability resulting from current productivity disturbances though not from disturbances to fiscal policies or the prospective return to investment the model is also consistent with international real interest rate differentials changes over time in the current account and relative wealth across nations and observed time series properties of exchange rates

a literature study for dea applied to energy and environment abstract this study systematically summarizes previous research efforts on data envelopment analysis dea applied to energy and environment in the past four decades including concepts and methodologies on dea environmental assessment industrial developments are very important for all nations in terms of their economic prosperities a problem is that the development produces various pollutions on air water and other types of contaminations all of which are usually associated with our health problems and climate changes thus it is necessary for us to consider how to make a balance between economic success and pollution mitigation to maintain a high level of social sustainability in the world it is widely considered that dea is one of the methodologies to examine the level of sustainability this study examines a recent research trend on dea applications from 1980s to 2010s nowadays many researchers have paid serious attention on how to combat various difficulties in the areas of energy and environment as a result the number of articles on dea applications on energy and environment has dramatically increased particularly after 2000s however it is true that dea has strengths and drawbacks in the applications therefore it is very important for us to carefully use dea for guiding large policy issues and business strategies such as the global warming and climate change an underlying premise of this study is that technology innovation in engineering and natural science may solve various problems by linking it with political and managerial efforts the use of dea provides a methodological linkage among them so enhancing the practicality in mitigating problems due to climate change and environmental pollutions this literature study along with a summary on conceptual and methodological developments provides us with guidelines for our future research works on dea on energy and environment issues

benchmarking urban energy efficiency in the uk this study asks what is the best way to measure urban energy efficiency there has been recent interest in identifying efficient cities so that best practices can be shared a process known as benchmarking previous studies have used relatively simple metrics that provide limited insight on the complexity of urban energy efficiency and arguably fail to provide a fair measure of urban performance using a data set of 198 urban uk local administrative units three methods are compared ratio measures regression residuals and data envelopment analysis the results show that each method has its own strengths and weaknesses regarding the ease of interpretation ability to identify outliers and provide consistent rankings efficient areas are diverse but are notably found in low income areas of large conurbations such as london whereas industrial areas are consistently ranked as inefficient the results highlight the shortcomings of the underlying production based energy accounts ideally urban energy efficiency benchmarks would be built on consumption based accounts but interim recommendations are made regarding the use of efficiency measures that improve upon current practice and facilitate wider conversations about what it means for a specific city to be energy efficient within an interconnected economy

are preliminary announcements of the money stock rational forecasts abstract we develop a theoretical framework of analyzing preliminary announcements of economic data and then apply this framework to the money stock we find that preliminary announcements of the money stock are best characterized as measured with classical errors in variables that is the revision is not correlated with the true value of the series the revision is however forecastable using information available at the time of the preliminary announcement our ability to forecast the revision implies that preliminary announcements are not rational estimates of the true money stock

hard and soft networks for urban competitiveness the concept of competitiveness has grown significantly and it is now common for cities regions and nations to assess improve and publicise their competitive standing vis a vis other places yet it remains rather unclear just what competitiveness is when applied to places which have objectives distinct from those of private sector organisations for whom share price and profitability serve as common metrics the blurring of the responsibilities of the public and private sectors also complicates matters with the former making increasing use of the terminology and priorities of business this paper takes the view that both public and private sectors and their interactions are sustained by networks to be effective these networks must operate at the global national regional and local scales gathering knowledge via social interaction that is through soft networks to a growing degree competitive networking also demands technological capability whether in high tech sectors smokestack industries

an equilibrium model of exchange rate determination and asset pricing with nontraded goods and imperfect information this paper presents a two country model with maximizing households stochastic production stochastic money growth and perfect capital mobility because of the presence of nontraded goods households in different countries consume different goods analytic solutions are presented for the nominal exchange rate the real exchange rate nominal interest rates and real interest rates it is shown that the model is compatible with some important features of the real world behavior of exchange rates when households are imperfectly informed about the distribution of money growth the exchange rate exhibits patterns of overshooting and is more volatile than the ratio of the money stocks copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

comparison of household consumption and regional production approaches to assess urban energy use and implications for policy assessment of urban energy use may proceed by a number of methods here we derive an energy account from local statistics and compare them with an input output io analysis as applied to melbourne australia these approaches highlight different aspects of urban energy use and comparable outputs are presented together to assess consistency to identify complementarities and discuss the insight each approach brings to understanding urban energy the io method captures the direct and embodied primary energy requirements of local household expenditure 235 8 gj capita year while the regional assessment more directly accounts for local production activity 258 1 gj capita year the parity of these results is unexpected for a developed city with a strong tertiary sector sectoral detail reveals differences between the primary energy required by melbourne s economic structure and that ultimately required through the full supply chain relating to household expenditure this is accompanied by an io analysis of the geography of melbourne s energy catchment it is suggested that the io consumption and regional production approaches have particular relevance to policies aimed at consumption behaviour and economic re structuring respectively their complementarity further suggests that a combined analysis would be valuable in understanding urban energy futures and economic transitions elsewhere

the econometrics of macroeconomic forecasting when an econometric model coincides with the mechanism generating the data in an unchanging world the theory of economic forecasting is reasonably well developed however less is known about forecasting when model and mechanism differ in a non stationary and changing world the paper addresses the basic concepts the invariance of forecast accuracy measures to isomorphic model representations the roles of causal information parsimony and collinearity a reformulated taxonomy of forecast errors differencing and intercept corrections to robustify forecasts against biases due to shifts in deterministic factors the removal of structural breaks by co breaking and forecasting using leading indicators

total factor energy efficiency of regions in china abstract this paper analyzes energy efficiencies of 29 administrative regions in china for the period 1995 2002 with a newly introduced index most existing studies of regional productivity and efficiency neglect energy inputs we use the data envelopment analysis dea to find the target energy input of each region in china at each particular year the index of total factor energy efficiency tfee then divides the target energy input by the actual energy input in our dea model labor capital stock energy consumption and total sown area of farm crops used as a proxy of biomass energy are the four inputs and real gdp is the single output the conventional energy productivity ratio regarded as a partial factor energy efficiency index is computed for comparison in contrast to tfee our index is found fitting better to the real case according to the tfee index rankings the central area of china has the worst energy efficiency and its total adjustmentof energy consumption amount is over half of china s total regional tfee in china generally improved during the research period except for the western area a u shape relation between the area s tfee and per capita income in the areas of china is found confirming the scenario that energy efficiency eventually improves with economic growth

dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade the j curve the authors provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in terms of trade but positively correlated with past movements they document the same properties in a two country stochastic growth model in which trade fluctuations reflect in large part the dynamics of capital formation the authors find that their general equilibrium perspective is essential the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends critically on the source of fluctuations copyright 1994 by american economic association

consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non traded goods abstract we examine the possibility that non traded goods may account for several striking features of international macroeconomic data large persistent deviations from purchasing power parity small correlations of aggregate consumption fluctuations across countries and substantial international real interest rate differentials a dynamic exchange economy is used to show that non traded goods in principle can account for each of these phenomena in the theory there is a close relation between fluctuations in consumption ratios and those in bilateral real exchange rates but we find little evidence for this relation in time series data for eight oecd countries

the assessment consumer expenditure this article aims to illuminate two sets of consumption puzzles the first concerns the behavior of aggregate saving rates in the 1980s and early 1990s collapse and rebound in scandinavia and the u k and apparently a more secular decline in the u s the second set of puzzles concerns various apparent contradictions of the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis e g in time series the excess sensitivity of consumption changes to anticipated income changes and in cross sections the tendency of consumption and income age profiles to follow each other more than standard life cycle theory implies the article discusses in relatively non technical terms the implications both for euler equations and solved out consumption functions of introducing uncertainty credit constraint consumption leisure interactions habits and durability alternative to rational expectations the illiquidity of some assets and financial deregulation it also compares the merits of euler and solved out models of aggregate consumption

comments on pareto weights as wedges in two country models by d backus c coleman a ferriere and s lyon abstract backus coleman ferriere and lyon study how the formulations of preferences and shocks affect the behavior of macroeconomic and financial aggregates in a simple endowment economy with no frictions their exercise could be considered as a first step of a rich research program that can further our understanding of international business cycles after discussing the fundamental propagation mechanisms in standard international business cycle models i put their contribution in a broader context i conclude with a summary of possible research questions to be explored in future work

some evidence on the international inequality of real interest rates abstract this paper undertakes econometric tests of the hypothesis that ex ante real interest rates are equal across countries with highly integrated capital markets the issue is of practical importance because the violation of real rate equality is a necessary condition for monetary policy to influence the open economy through the real interest rate channel although an empirical literature concerning real rate equality already exists previous investigators have focused on pre tax real rates this paper contributes to the literature by attempting to incorporate the effects of taxation into the analysis

an experiment for urban energy autonomy in seoul the one less nuclear power plant policy abstract this study examines an experiment in energy self sufficiency in seoul republic of korea through a particular energy policy called the one less nuclear power plant olnpp policy we define an urban energy experiment as a purposive intervention for energy transition from an energy system based on nuclear and fossil fuels to one based on renewable energy and energy demand management we suggest three findings first we find that the themes of our theoretical framework policy backgrounds governance and policy contents have played important roles for seoul s energy experiments aimed at urban energy autonomy in particular political leadership based on the mayor s previous experiences contributed significantly to the formation and implementation of this policy second the olnpp policy adds a social or moral dimension to urban energy policies the norm change from an environmental and economic focus to a focus on the combination of social environmental and economic considerations is a unique contribution of the olnpp policy to urban experiments in energy transition third we find that experiments through purposive interventions serve as a means for facilitating urban energy governance where the actors involved can communicate and enhance their new ideas and practices

the informational content of ex ante forecasts the informational content of different forecasts can be compared by regressing the actual change in a variable to be forecasted on forecasts of the change we use the procedure in fair and shiller 1987 to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ant forecasts the american statistical association and national bureau of economic research survey asa data resources incorporated dri and wharton economic forecasting associates uefa we compare these forecasts to each other and to quasi ex ante forecasts generated from a vector autoregressive model an autoregressive components model and a large scale structural model the fair model