delays in claiming social security benefits this paper focuses on social security benefit claiming behavior a takeup decision that has been ignored in the previous literature using financial calculations and simulations based on an expected utility maximization model we show that delaying benefit claim for a period of time after retirement is optimal in a wide variety of cases and that gains from delay may be significant we find that approximately 10 of men retiring before their 62nd birthday delay claiming for at least one year after eligibility we estimate hazard and probit models using data from the new beneficiary data system to test four cross sectional predictions while the data suggest that too few men delay we find that the pattern of delays by early retirees is generally consistent with the hypotheses generated by our theoretical model

deviations from purchasing power parity in the long run this paper demonstrates that deviations from purchasing power parity reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data since this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper proposes an alternative explanation which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism this paper will demonstrate that deviations from purchasing power parity ppp reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible exchange rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper therefore proposes an alternative explanation which does not presuppose free trade in goods but which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism the major implication of the theory and the results is that ppp is as likely to be violated in the long as in the short run as an empirical matter deviations from ppp can be observed for most currencies at any instant see kravis et al 21 stockman 37 and genberg 15 among others these deviations are typically both cumulative and persistent the real exchange rate can remain on either side of parity for lengthy but variable time intervals of a year or more as a consequence the current consensus shared

tastes and technology in a two country model of the business cycle explaining international trade on international financial markets allows people to insure country specific risk and smooth consumption intertemporally equilibrium models of business cycles with trade on global financial markets typically yield international consumption correlations near one and excessive volatility of investment the authors incorporate nontraded goods in the model and find that the implications for aggregate consumption investment and the trade balance are consistent with business cycle properties of industrialized countries however the model driven by technology shocks alone yields counterfactual implications for comovements between consumption and prices at the sectoral level taste shocks produce price quantity relationships more consistent with the data copyright 1995 by american economic association

trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

informal risk capital in sweden and some international comparisons abstract in many countries there seems to be a shortage of risk capital i e equity or equity linked capital for entrepreneurial ventures seeking external capital as a consequence many entrepreneurial ventures are undercapitalized with a high loan capital burden there is some evidence from the u sa that informal investors provide an essential source of equity capital to entrepreneurial ventures however our knowledge about the informal risk capital markets is dominated by research from the u s a and there are few studies carried out in other countries this study represents the first description of the informal risk capital market in sweden the aim of the study is also to compare the characteristics of informal investors in sweden with those in the u sa and the u k information from 52 informal investors is used for the description of the informal risk capital market in sweden an international comparison is made by using the results of studies by gaston 1989 on informal investors in the u sa and mason et al 1991 on the informal risk capital market in the u k what about the informal risk capital market in sweden traditionally the tax system in sweden has not stimulated private wealth accumulation and there has been a tradition to seek formal institutional solutions to solve the problems faced by entrepreneurial ventures however in recent years there has been a growing interest in the potential role of informal investors to fill the equity capital gap for entrepreneurial ventures today there seems to be an informal risk capital market in sweden even if it is not very large in terms of investor demographics investment activity portfolio characteristics and the relationship between the informal investor and the portfolio firm the informal investors in sweden can be characterized in the following way they are predominantly male and they are financially well off one main characteristic is that they are very experienced entrepreneurs and it can be assumed that the majority of the informal investors have made their fortunes through a cash in of their businesses the informal investors in sweden seem to be frequent investors and their acceptance rate is rather high furthermore they seem to be rather careful in their evaluation of new investment opportunities and also invest large amounts of money in their informal investments the informal investors seem to make their investments in established firms and in more low tech industry sectors therefore they only partly seem to play a role infilling the equity capital gap for entrepreneurial ventures the informal investors relationship to their portfolio firms can be characterized as active but they are not involved to any large extent in daily operations the most common way of organizing the relationship is by way of active work on the board and by providing consulting help when needed what are the similarities and differences between informal investors in the u k the u s a and sweden this study shows that there are some similarities for example informal investors are predominantly male with an entrepreneurial background financially well off and they identify investment opportunities from friends and business associates on the other hand there seem to be some important differences for example informal investors in the u k and sweden seem to be older than those in the u s a furthermore informal investors in sweden invest a higher proportion of their wealth in informal investments compared to their counterparts in the u s a and the u k in terms of investment activities informal investors in the u k can be characterized as less sophisticated and ad hoc investors and they seldom make investments with other informal investors on the other hand informal investors in the u s a and sweden seem to be more professional in their investment activities i e they make many serious evaluations of new investment opportunities and they put rather large emphasis on the evaluation in terms of portfolio characteristics informal investors in sweden seem to take the lowest risks in their investment portfolios compared to their counterparts in the u s a and the u k finally informal investors in the u k the u s a and sweden work differently in relationship to their portfolio firms in the u k the relationship can be characterized as passive i e their involvement in the portfolio firms daily operations is usually rather low on the contrary the informal investors in the u s a work very actively in their portfolio firms the analysis shows that there seem to be two extreme categories of informal investors one extreme is represented by many of the informal investors in the u k they can be characterized as infrequent and less sophisticated investors who invest small amounts of money and work as rather passive investors the other extreme is represented by informal investors in the u s a they seem to be more professional and active in their informal investments informal investors in sweden show some similarities with their u s counter parts but they work less actively in the portfolio firms than do informal investors in the u s a the differences between the characteristics of informal investors in the u k the u s a and sweden are of course attributable to differences in contextual factors such as investment climate entrepreneurial traditions fiscal regimes regulatory environment and wealth distribution this implies that it may be difficult to copy measures to stimulate the informal risk capital market from one country to another

interfirm relationships and informal credit in vietnam trading relations in vietnam s emerging private sector are shaped by two market frictions the difficulty of locating trading partners and the absence of legal enforcement of contracts examining relational contracting we find that a firm trusts its customer enough to offer credit when the customer finds it hard to locate an alternative supplier a longer duration of trading relationship is associated with larger credit as is prior information gathering customers identified through business networks receive more credit these network effects are enduring suggesting that networks are used to sanction defaulting customers

the determinants of trade credit use the case of the tanzanian rice market most small businesses in the developing economies suffer from a lack of access to formal external finance one important alternative source of finance for these entrepreneurs is trade credit applying a unique data set containing data on specific trade relations between rice wholesalers and rice retailers in tanzania we analyse the determinants of trade credit demand and supply in this market using a simultaneous equation modelling approach the analysis shows that while the demand for trade credit is primarily determined by the extent to which retailers need external funds supply is mainly driven by wholesalers incentives to attract and keep clients moreover wholesalers willingness to provide credit increases if they have better information about the possibility that the customer will fail to repay the credit

interest rates and currency prices in a two country world abstract this paper is a theoretical study of the determination of prices interest rates and currency exchange rates set in an infinitely lived two country world which is subject both to stochastic endowment shocks and to monetary instability formulas are obtained for pricing all equity claims nominally denominated bonds and currencies and these formulas are related to earlier closely related results in the theories of money finance international trade

an exploration in the theory of exchange rate regimes three exchange rate regimes a float a one sided peg and a cooperative peg are evaluated and compared in terms of efficiency and welfare levels the framework of analysis embodies country specific monies with the money of each country being used to transact in its commodity markets and its currency denominated bonds welfare levels depend only on consumption levels in the presence of perfect foresight all equilibrium allocations are pareto efficient in a floating exchange rate regime the perfect foresight equilibrium allocation coincides with an equilibrium of a costless barter economy the same result holds in a one sided peg if the pegging country s exchange rate stabilizing authority breaks even over time in a cooperative peg regime there is a different equilibrium allocation for each combination of exchange rate levels and monetary policies problems of policy coordination and conflicts in desired monetary policies are discussed

risk sharing and real exchange rates the role of non tradable sector and trend shocks abstract in this paper we show that the tradable and non tradable total factor productivity tfp processes of the us and europe have unit roots and can be modeled by a vector error correction model vecm then we develop a standard two country and two good tradable and non tradable dsge model our model implies that using cointegrated tfp processes and including non tradables help solve the real exchange rate rer volatility and risk sharing puzzles cointegrated tfp shocks or trend shocks generate significant income effects and amplify the mechanisms that produce high rer volatility moreover trend shocks can break the tight link between relative consumption and rer for low and high values of trade elasticity parameters the non tradable sector in the model improves the results for the risk sharing significantly

international portfolio nondiversification and exchange rate variability abstract incomplete international portfolio diversification is implied by an equilibrium models of exchange rates with nontraded goods the model can also explain the greater correlation between consumption and income within a country than between consumption across countries nontraded goods make more stringent the elasticity conditions required to explain exchange rate variability resulting from current productivity disturbances though not from disturbances to fiscal policies or the prospective return to investment the model is also consistent with international real interest rate differentials changes over time in the current account and relative wealth across nations and observed time series properties of exchange rates

the home bias in equities and distribution costs we show that incorporating distribution costs into a general equilibrium model of international portfolio choice helps to explain the home bias in international equity investment our model is able to replicate observed investment positions for a wide range of parameter values even if agents have an incentive to hedge labor income risk by purchasing foreign equity this is because the existence of a retail sector affects both the correlation of domestic returns with the domestic price level and the correlation between financial and non financial income

home bias in equity portfolios inflation hedging and international capital market equilibrium we test whether the home bias in equity portfolios is caused by investors trying to hedge inflation risk the empirical evidence is consistent with this motive only if investors have very high levels of risk tolerance and equity returns are negatively correlated with domestic inflation we then develop a model of international portfolio choice and equity market equilibrium that integrates inflation risk and deadweight costs using this model we estimate the levels of costs required to generate the observed home bias in portfolios consistent with different levels of risk aversion for a level of risk aversion consistent with standard estimates of the domestic equity market risk premium these costs are about a few percent per annum greater than observable costs such as withholding taxes thus the home bias cannot be explained by either inflation hedging or direct observable costs of international investment unless investors have very low levels of risk aversion article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

commodity trade and international risk sharing how much do financial markets matter abstract this paper evaluates the social gains from international risk sharing in some simple general equilibrium models with output uncertainty a simulation model calibrated to selected moments of u s and japanese data estimates the incremental loss from a ban on international portfolio diversification to be on the order of 0 20 percent of output per year even the theoretical gains from asset trade may disappear under alternative sets of assumptions on preferences and technology the paper argues that the small magnitude of potential trade gains may help explain the apparently inconsistent findings of empirical studies on the degree of international capital mobility

does competition encourage credit provision evidence from african trade credit relationships previous work has claimed that monopoly power facilitates the provision of credit because monopolists are better able to enforce payment here we argue that if relationship specific investments are required by borrowers to establish creditworthiness monopoly power may reduce credit provision because holdup problems ex post will deter borrowers from investing in establishing creditworthiness empirically we examine the relationship between monopoly power and credit provision using data on the supply relationships of firms in five african countries consistent with the up front investment story we find that monopoly power is negatively associated with credit provision and that this correlation is stronger in older supplier relationships because the data include several observations per firm we are able to utilize firm fixed effects thus netting out unobserved firm characteristics that may have been driving results in earlier studies

is the dollar high because of large budget deficits abstract it is widely believed that the u s dollar has been high in recent years because of large u s budget deficits using three statistical techniques this paper shows that the belief has no empirical support ricardian equivalence may explain the lack of a positive association between the budget deficit and the dollar s exchange rate

new evidence on earnings and benefit claims following changes in the retirement earnings test in 2000 abstract this paper examines the labor force activity and timing of benefit claims of workers aged 65 69 in response to the removal of the retirement earnings test in 2000 we use the 1 sample of longitudinal social security administrative data that covers the period from 4 years before to 4 years after the removal of the test using a reduced form quantile regression method we find that effects on earnings are limited to workers with earnings just around the test threshold and above as predicted by economic theory our estimated effects suggest that labor supply elasticities with respect to the net of tax rate are approximately 0 05 0 07 for working primary beneficiaries aged 65 69 whose earnings are between the median and the 80th percentile further results show that applications for social security benefits following the earnings test removal accelerated by 2 to 5 percentage points among individuals aged 65 69 and by 3 to 7 percentage points among those reaching age 65

real exchange rates under alternative nominal exchange rate systems abstract the paper develops an equilibrium model of the determination of exchange rates the relative price of nontraded goods and the current account the focus is on the effects of various real and nominal disturbances and the conditions under which the nominal exchange rate system is neutral with respect to real variables in the economy the model demonstrates an assymetry in the roles of trade and nontraded goods in affecting exchange rates an econometric investigation of the raltion between the exchange rate system and the variability of real exchange rates provides some evidence against the neutrality hypothesis

high exchange rate volatility and low pass through abstract two specifications of an open economy model are shown to generate high exchange rate volatility and low exchange rate pass through erpt in the model price discrimination causes erpt to be incomplete in both the short and the long run in the short run a small amount of nominal rigidities is enough to reduce erpt sharply still exchange rate depreciation worsens the terms of trade consistent with the evidence possible biases from omitted variables and measurement error in the erpt empirical literature due to data limitations are investigated using model generated time series estimates of erpt coefficients can be quite different from true parameters and are sensitive to the shocks driving the economies estimates can nonetheless detect key structural features of the models

effects of social security policies on benefit claiming retirement and saving abstract an enhanced version of a structural model jointly explains benefit claiming wealth and retirement including reversals from states of lesser to greater work the model is estimated with health and retirement study data alternative beliefs about the future of social security affect claiming behavior effects of three potential policies are also examined increasing the early entitlement age increasing the full retirement age and eliminating the payroll tax for seniors predicted responses to increasing the full entitlement age are sensitive to beliefs

why real interest rates cost of capital and price earnings ratios vary across countries abstract this paper examines how productivity changes affect real rates of return and price earnings ratios in a small open economy the model provides conditions under which increased productivity in a country s traded goods sector causes prices of non traded goods to increase relative to the price of traded goods under these conditions real rates of interest decline and the production of certain non traded durable goods such as capital equipment and housing immediately increase this overconstruction has two effects first the increase in capital relative to labor in these sectors increases the marginal product of labor and hence immediately causes an increase in wages and the prices of non traded goods second an oversupply of capital goods and housing depresses their rental rates in the current period thereby increasing their price to rental ratios or equivalently their price earnings ratios

currency prices terms of trade and interest rates a general equilibrium asset pricing cash in advance approach currency prices terms of trade and interest rates a general equilibrium asset pricing cash in advance approach

do trade costs in goods market lead to home bias in equities abstract two of the main puzzles in international economics are the consumption and the portfolio home biases we solve for international equity portfolios in a two country two good stochastic equilibrium model with trade costs in goods markets we show that introducing trade costs as suggested by obstfeld and rogoff obstfeld m rogoff k 2000a the six major puzzles in international macroeconomics is there a common cause nber macroeconomics annual 15 is not sufficient to explain these two puzzles simultaneously on the contrary we find that trade costs create a foreign bias in portfolios for reasonable parameter values this result is robust to the addition of non tradable goods for standard calibrations of the preferences

repatriation of debt in the euro crisis with the beginning of the euro crisis the long standing trend of european financial integration reversed investors unwound cross border positions of debt obligations and increased holdings of locally issued debt in other words debt obligations were repatriated we use data on bank portfolios to document three new empirical regularities of the financial disintegration i repatriation affected mainly debt of crisis countries ii repatriation affected mainly public debt iii the public debt of crisis countries that was not repatriated was reallocated to large and politically influential countries within the euro area we read these results in light of standard theories of cross border portfolio allocation and argue that the sum of these patterns constitutes evidence for the secondary market theory of public debt

indivisible labor and the business cycle abstract a growth model with shocks to technology is studied labor is indivisible so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed we find that unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity this finding is independent of individuals willingness to substitute leisure across time this and other findings are the result of studying and comparing summary statistics describing this economy an economy with divisible labor and post war u s time series

trade credit and credit rationing asymmetric information between banks and firms can preclude financing of valuable projects trade credit alleviates this problem by incorporating in the lending relation the private information held by suppliers about their customers incentive compatibility conditions prevent collusion between two of the agents e g the buyer and the seller against the third e g the bank consistent with the empirical findings of petersen and rajan 1995 firms without relationships with banks resort more to trade credit and sellers with greater ability to generate cash lows provide more trade credit finally small firms react to monetary contractions by using trade credit consistent with the empirical results of nilsen 1994 article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

trade credit and the bank lending channel the bank lending channel theory posits that during monetary contractions banks restrict some firms loans thus reducing their desired investment independently of interest rates previous research finds small firms reduce while large firms accelerate loan growth we find that small firms increase trade credit a substitute credit indicating a strong loan demand it supports the bank lending channel they do not voluntarily cut bank loans since they increase a less desirable alternative using trade credit is propitious since unlike commercial paper investigated by previous researchers it is widely used by the small firms suffering the loan decline surprisingly we also find large firms increase trade credit a puzzle since they are typically assumed to have wide access to other credit using individual manufacturing firm data we find the reasons large firms use trade credit are financial in nature those without a bond rating increase trade credit that is without access to open market credit as relatively few firms have this mark of quality it implies that more firms are affected by credit constraints than previously believed

equity home bias a review essay this paper reviews the relatively more recent literature on equity home bias the empirical finding that people overinvest in domestic stocks relative to the optimal investment portfolio implied by the modern portfolio theory it reviews six broad classes of explanation of this puzzling phenomenon 1 hedging home risks 2 barriers to foreign investments 3 information asymmetries and 4 behavioral factors the consensus is that none of the explanations can account for the full extent of the bias by itself thus the home bias should be explained by a combination of rational and behavioral factors

nontraded goods nontraded factors and international non diversification abstract can the presence of nontraded consumption goods or nontraded factors of production explain the high degree of home bias displayed by investor portfolios we find that the answer is no so long as individuals have access to free international trade in financial assets in particular it is never optimal to exhibit home bias with respect to domestic traded good equities by contrast holdings of nontraded good equities in an optimal portfolio will depend sensitively on the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods

in kind finance a theory of trade credit it is typically less profitable for an opportunistic borrower to divert inputs than to divert cash therefore suppliers may lend more liberally than banks this simple argument is at the core of our contract theoretic model of trade credit in competitive markets the model implies that trade credit and bank credit can be either complements or substitutes among other things the model explains why trade credit has short maturity why trade credit is more prevalent in less developed credit markets and why accounts payable of large unrated firms are more countercyclical than those of small firms

home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics standard theory would predict that investors hold a well diversified portfolio of equities across the world but despite the process of financial globalization investors still hold a disproportionate share of local equities in their portfolio the equity home bias french and poterba 1991 we review the various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon in the context of recent developments in macroeconomic modelling that have allowed to incorporate sophisticated international portfolio choices in standard two country general equilibrium models we refer to this literature as open economy financial macroeconomics we focus on three broad classes of explanations i hedging motives in frictionless financial markets real exchange rate and non tradable income risk ii asset trade costs in international financial markets such as transaction costs differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets iii informational frictions and behavioural biases these recent developments raise the need for new portfolio facts beyond the equity home bias and we will present some new evidence on cross border asset holdings across different types of assets equities bonds and bank lending we also present some new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level these data should inform macroeconomic modelling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment

labor supply responses to marginal social security benefits evidence from discontinuities abstract a key question for social security reform is whether workers respond to the link on the margin between the social security taxes they pay and the social security benefits they will receive we estimate the effects of the marginal social security benefits that accrue with additional earnings on three measures of labor supply retirement age hours and labor earnings we develop a new approach to identifying these incentive effects by exploiting five provisions in the social security benefit rules that generate discontinuities in marginal benefits or non linearities in marginal benefits that converge to discontinuities as uncertainty about the future is resolved we find that individuals approaching retirement age 52 and older respond to the social security tax benefit link on the extensive margin of their labor supply decisions we estimate that a 10 increase in the net of tax share reduces the two year retirement hazard by a statistically significant 2 0 percentage points from a base rate of 15 the evidence with regard to labor supply responses on the intensive margin is more mixed we estimate that the elasticity of hours with respect to the net of tax share is 0 42 and statistically significant but we do not find a statistically significant earnings elasticity though we lack statistical power to estimate results within subsamples precisely the retirement response is driven mostly by the female subsample while the hours response comes from the male subsample

ethnicity and credit in african manufacturing abstract this paper investigates whether market interaction can by itself perpetuate the lack of ethnic diversity that is observed in the business communities of many developing countries using case study data on manufacturing firms in kenya and zimbabwe we find no evidence that blacks or women are disadvantaged in the attribution of bank credit once we control for firm size and other observable characteristics in contrast an ethnic and gender bias is noticeable in the attribution of supplier credit although we cannot rule out the presence of discrimination the bulk of the evidence indicates that network effects play an important role in explaining this bias

money and asset prices in a cash in advance economy an asset pricing model with money introduced via a cash in advance constraint is presented the monetary velocity is variable hence money demand does not obey the trivial quantity equation the effects of disturbances in output and money growth on real balances the price level and interest rates are examined monetary policy has effects on real asset prices the fisher relation and the premium on nominal bonds are discussed the precise role of the timing of information and transactions for properties of price levels and interest rates are clarified

dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade the j curve the authors provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in terms of trade but positively correlated with past movements they document the same properties in a two country stochastic growth model in which trade fluctuations reflect in large part the dynamics of capital formation the authors find that their general equilibrium perspective is essential the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends critically on the source of fluctuations copyright 1994 by american economic association

the role of information for retirement behavior evidence based on the stepwise introduction of the social security statement abstract in 1995 the social security administration started sending out the annual social security statement it contains information about the worker s estimated benefits at the ages 62 65 and 70 i use this unique natural experiment to analyze the retirement and claiming decision making first i find that despite the previous availability of information the statement has a significant impact on workers knowledge about their benefits these findings are consistent with a model where workers need to gather costly information in order to improve their retirement decision second i use this exogenous variation in knowledge to analyze the optimality of workers decisions several findings suggest that workers do not change their retirement behavior i workers do not change their expected age of retirement after receiving the statement ii monthly claiming patterns do not show any change after the introduction of the social security statement iii workers do not become more sensitive to social security incentives after receiving the statement more research is needed to establish whether workers are already behaving optimally but the information contained in the statement is not sufficient to improve their retirement behavior

consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non traded goods abstract we examine the possibility that non traded goods may account for several striking features of international macroeconomic data large persistent deviations from purchasing power parity small correlations of aggregate consumption fluctuations across countries and substantial international real interest rate differentials a dynamic exchange economy is used to show that non traded goods in principle can account for each of these phenomena in the theory there is a close relation between fluctuations in consumption ratios and those in bilateral real exchange rates but we find little evidence for this relation in time series data for eight oecd countries

tribe or nation nation building and public goods in kenya versus tanzania this article examines how government policies affect ethnic relations by comparing outcomes across two nearby districts one in kenya and one in tanzania using colonial era boundary placement as a natural experiment despite similar geography and historical legacies governments in kenya and tanzania have followed radically different language education and local institutional policies with tanzania consistently pursuing more serious nation building the evidence suggests that nation building has allowed diverse communities in rural tanzania to achieve considerably better local public goods outcomes than diverse communities in kenya to illustrate while kenyan communities at mean levels of diversity have 25 percent less local school funding than homogeneous communities on average the comparable figure in the tanzanian district is near zero the kenya tanzania comparison provides empirical evidence that serious reforms can ameliorate social divisions and suggests that nation building should take a place on policy agendas especially in africa

international stock market equilibrium with heterogenous tastes this paper considers a dynamic real exchange model of international trade in commodities and equities given generalized cobb douglas intraperiod tastes that differ across countries we find a closed form solution with properties that are noteworthy not because they reverse our presumptions but because they exceed them a consumption based model of international equity investment might be expected to have the following properties i the optimal portfolios should reflect the international pattern of commodity expenditure ii a country s portfolio should be biased toward equities in commodities that attract a large share of its expenditure iii a country would short some equities given an appropriate structure of equity returns iv short sales of equities would allow the international economy to move toward the situation that would prevail if risk markets were complete in our model solution these properties take strong forms

future social security entitlements and the retirement decision abstract a critical question for social security policy is how program incentives affect retirement behavior we use the health and retirement survey hrs to examine the impact of social security incentives on male retirement we implement forward looking models whereby individuals consider the incentives to work in all future years we find that forward looking incentive measures for social security are significant determinants of retirement we also find that private pension incentives have roughly similar effects our findings suggest that social security policies that increase the incentives to work at older ages can significantly reduce the labor force exit rate of older workers

what you don t know can t help you pension knowledge and retirement decision making abstract this paper provides an answer to an important empirical puzzle in the retirement literature while most people know little about their own pension plans retirement behavior is strongly affected by pension incentives we combine administrative and self reported pension data to measure the retirement response to actual and perceived financial incentives and document an important role for self reported pension data in determining retirement behavior well informed individuals are far more responsive to pension incentives than the average individual ill informed individuals seem to respond systematically to their own misperceptions of pension incentives

the role of saving and investment in exchange rate determination under alternative monetary mechanisms abstract we argue that the demand for national currencies depends on existing payment arrangements for imports and exports therefore exchange rate movements depend on these arrangement as a result the relationship between exchange rate movements and various macroeconomic aggregates like saving and investment depend on what we call the monetary mechanism these points are explicitly demonstrated by studying two extreme monetary mechanisms one in which all payments are done with the seller s currency and one in which all payments are done with the buyer s currency

how does social security claiming respond to incentives considering husbands and wives benefits separately abstract most women receive some social security benefits based upon their husbands earnings history but husbands benefit claiming is inconsistent with maximizing lifetime benefits for the couple i show that husbands claiming behavior responds to the actuarial incentives from their retired worker benefits not responding to incentives from spouse and survivor formulas reduces wives lifetime benefits rule changes to the social security benefit calculation the age difference between spouses and the relative strength of the wife s labor force history creates variation in incentives segments of the population predicted to be more responsive to incentives provides similar results to the main specification

does home bias affect firm value evidence from holdings of mutual funds worldwide this study finds strong evidence that home bias affects firm valuation at both country and firm levels at the country level increasing the bias of domestic investors toward home equity lowers the market valuation of home equity at the firm level firm value increases as the compositions of local equities held by domestic and foreign investors tend toward the firms global market capitalization weights but decreases as their weights deviate from global weights overall the evidence is consistent with the optimal global risk sharing hypothesis that the greater risk sharing between domestic and foreign investors in international capital markets reduces the cost of capital and hence enhances market valuation

labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities abstract in response to a crisis in social security financing two decades ago congress implemented an increase in the normal retirement age nra of 2 months per year for cohorts born in 1938 and after these cohorts began reaching retirement age in 2000 this paper studies the effects of these benefit cuts on recent retirement behavior the evidence suggests that the mean retirement age of the affected cohorts has increased by about half as much as the increase in the nra if older workers continue to increase their labor supply in the same way there might be important implications for the estimates of social security trust fund exhaustion that have played such a major role in recent discussions of social security reform

what moves oecd real interest rates this paper conducts a structural time series analysis of ex ante real interest rates of the five major oecd economies the relationships of rates to permanent and temporary real and nominal shocks appear to be qualitatively consistent with predictions of stochastic general equilibrium business cycle models u s real and nominal shocks are found to be the most important causes of persistence in rates but only nominal shocks cause dynamic movements that are coherent across all countries the rise in real interest rates in the early 1980s was mainly due to nominal shocks real shocks played little or no role

the international diversification puzzle is not as bad as you think the international diversification puzzle is the fact that country portfolios are on average biased toward domestic assets while one good international macro models with nondiversifiable labor income risk predict the opposite pattern of diversification this paper embeds a portfolio choice decision in a two good international business cycle model and provides a closed form solution for equilibrium country portfolios equilibrium portfolios are biased toward domestic assets because endogenous international relative price fluctuations make domestic assets a good hedge against labor income risk evidence from developed economies in recent years is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the mechanisms highlighted by the theory

country portfolios in open economy macro models this paper develops a simple approximation method for computing equilibrium portfolios in dynamic general equilibrium open economy macro models the method is widely applicable simple to implement and gives analytical solutions for equilibrium portfolio positions in any combination or types of asset it can be used in models with any number of assets whether markets are complete or incomplete and can be applied to stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models of any dimension so long as the model is amenable to a solution using standard approximation methods we first illustrate the approach using a simple two asset endowment economy model and then show how the results extend to the case of any number of assets and general economic structure

accounting for u s real exchange rate changes this study measures the proportion of u s real exchange rate movements that can be accounted for by movements in the relative prices of nontraded goods the decomposition is done at all possible h

international financial market integration asset compositions and the falling exchange rate pass through this paper provides an explanation for the observed decline of the exchange rate pass through into import prices by modeling the effects of nancial market integration on the optimal choice of the pricing currency in the context of rigid nominal goods prices contrary to previous literature the interdependence of this choice with the optimal portfolio choice of internationally traded nancial assets is explicitly taken into account in particular price setters move towards more local currency pricing while the debt portfolio includes more foreign assets following increased nancial integration both predictions are in line with novel empirical evidence

a general equilibrium model of international portfolio choice we investigate in a two country general equilibrium model whether a bias in consumption towards domestic goods will necessarily lead to a preference for domestic securities we develop a model where investors are constrained to consume only from their domestic capital stock and where it is costly to transfer capital across countries in this model investors less risk averse than an investor with log utility bias their portfolios towards domestic assets investors more risk averse than log however prefer foreign assets thus this model suggests that it is unlikely that the portfolios observed empirically can be explained by the high proportion of domestic goods in total consumption we investigate in a two country general equilbrium model whether a bias in consumption toward domestic goods will necessarily lead to a preference for domestic assets in an investor s optimal portfolio we constrain investors to consume only from their domestic capital stock and introduce a proportional cost for transferring goods from one country this cost gives rise to endogenous deviations from the law of one price lop thus the home and foreign investors do not hold identical portfolios we show that an investor s optimal portfolio is biased towards domestic equity only if she is less risk averse than an investor with log utility investors with relative risk aversion greater than one exhibit a preference for the foreign asset this is because the exchange rate derived endogenously is negatively correlated with the return on the foreign asset and therefore the translated return on the foreign stock is less risky than that on the domestic stock thus the results of this model suggest that it is unlikely that the preference for domestic assets that is observed empirically can be explained by the high proportion of domestic goods in total consumption there exists a considerable body of literature documenting the gains from international diversification grubel 1968 was the first to propose that international diversification allows investors to attain lower return variances than those achievable by diversifying domestically this proposition relies on the correlation between stock indices across countries being significantly less

dynamics of a floating exchange rate regime we study the full equilibrium dynamics of a two country world economy with a floating exchange rate traded and nontraded goods and explicit modeling of the use of money the resulting exchange rate equation depends on several details of the economic structure such as the supply structure and propensities to spend on various goods although real exchange rate movements have the usual association with the current account the ordinary exchange rate may appreciate or depreciate when there are deficits on current account even when the quantities of money do not change deviations from purchasing power parity and the fisher equation are shown to be the rule rather than the exception

trade interdependence and the international business cycle a stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy is developed to analyze the contribution of trade interdependence to international business cycles we test some of the implications of the model using data from ten major industrial countries and a variety of detrending techniques to calculate the cyclical component of output we find that the significance of trade in the transmission of economic disturbances across countries is not robust to the choice of the detrending method in general the role of trade interdependence is moderate and seem to have been stronger in the period before 1973

the effects of subjective survival on retirement and social security claiming according to the life cycle model mortality risk will influence both retirement and the desire to annuitize wealth we estimate the effect of subjective survival probabilities on retirement and on the claiming of social security benefits because delayed claiming is equivalent to the purchase of additional social security annuities we find that those with very low subjective probabilities of survival retire earlier and claim earlier than those with higher subjective probabilities but the effects are not large the great majority of workers claim as soon as they are eligible copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances

small and medium size enterprises access to finance as a growth constraint abstract this paper presents recent research on access to finance by small and medium size enterprises smes smes form a large part of private sector in many developed and developing countries while cross country research sheds doubt on a causal link between smes and economic development there is substantial evidence that small firms face larger growth constraints and have less access to formal sources of external finance potentially explaining the lack of smes contribution to growth financial and institutional development helps alleviate smes growth constraints and increase their access to external finance and thus levels the playing field between firms of different sizes specific financing tools such as leasing and factoring can be useful in facilitating greater access to finance even in the absence of well developed institutions as can systems of credit information sharing and a more competitive banking structure

capital flows investment and exchange rates abstract this paper incorporates international capital flows into a two country monetary general equilibrium model of asset prices with investment and production we calculate theoretical covariances between investment the current account the exchange rate and the terms of trade these covariances depend upon the coefficient of relative risk aversion the magnitude and sign of a country s net international indebtedness other properties of tastes and technologies and the stochastic processes on disturbances to productivity and monetary growth rates international capital flows arise from changes in world wealth and its relative composition in foreign and domestic assets