can asia overcome the imf stigma asian countries still have the imf stigma which originates from the experiences of the asian crisis of 1997 98 the feeling of being unfairly treated grew even stronger afterward the asian countries built large foreign reserves carried out structural reforms and became even stronger than pre crisis period asians are confident in not repeating the same mistake of falling into a crisis with too much external borrowing whether imf can entice asia to new precautionary liquidities facilities remains uncertain asia may choose either to focus on completing a regional safety net or to engage in imf demanding for a greater voice and votes

earnings rents and competition in the airline labor market transformation of the airline labor market continues long after deregulation airline wages changed little immediately following deregulation implying either the absence of regulatory rents or maintenance of product market power and union strength analysis for 1973 1997 however indicates that prior to recent gains the relative earnings of air transport workers decreased markedly during the latter half of the 1980s and early 1990s some of the earnings advantage of airline workers represents returns to occupational skills and worker specific quality labor rents are attributable largely to union bargaining power which in turn is constrained by the financial health of carriers

unionization and input flexibility in u s manufacturing 1973 1996 input flexibility as measured by the ability of firms to vary input demand in the face of changes in input prices is an important dimension of labor market flexibility using a new dataset the authors analyze the impact of unionization on input flexibility in u s manufacturing from 1973 to 1996 a period in which production was arguably becoming more flexible due to deep changes in the u s industrial relations system and in the broad macroeconomic environment the authors quantify the effects of unionization on input flexibility by estimating elasticities of substitution between a broad range of labor and non labor inputs controlling for unionization the pattern that emerges is more complex than that suggested by other research in particular low unionization apparently is associated with greater flexibility in the use of labor inputs but less flexibility in the use of non labor inputs

the scope of imf conditionality international organizations are governed by two parallel sets of rules formal rules which embody consensual procedures and informal rules which allow exceptional access for powerful countries a new data set drawn from the imf s records of conditionality provides an opportunity to study the bargaining process within an important international organization and answer questions about the institution s autonomy i find evidence of u s influence which operates to constrain condition ality but only in important countries that are vulnerable enough to be willing to draw on their influence with the united states in ordinary countries under ordinary circumstances broad authority is delegated to the imf which adjusts conditionality to accommodate local circumstances and domestic political opposition the imf has refrained from exploiting the vulnerability of particular countries to maximize the scope of conditionality international organizations have become increasingly important actors in inter national politics they have proliferated have expanded in membership have acquired new legal enforcement powers and have extended their reach into the details of domestic political economy in their member states af ew including the international monetary fund imf or simply the fund command significant resources and wield considerable authority some critics have argued that these international organizations are sufficiently autonomous to create a democratic def icit at the international level as they pursue a vision of undemocratic liberal ism 1 other critics have argued that international organizations are nothing more than instruments in the hands of powerful states 2 these critiques of course cannot simultaneously be true and both run into difficulties the puzzle that the rogue agency view cannot explain is why the principals have chosen to delegate so much authority in principal agent terms this view posits that both screening and monitoring have failed the principals are unable to select agents with preferences similar to their own and are unable

an analysis of drawings on the international monetary fund by developing countries the nature of relations between the imf and developing countries has come under close scrutiny in recent years this has partly been the result of the deteriorating economic situation in which a large number of non oil developing countries have found themselves a situation characterised by falling rates of economic growth increasing balance of payments deficits and rising debt service ratios and partly it has resulted from the particular but public experiences of a number of developing countries such as jamaica peru and tanzania in their dealings with the fund

the imf and precautionary lending an empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the flexible credit line abstract this paper provides an empirical evaluation of the flexible credit line fcl the imf s prime precautionary lending instrument since 2009 to which so far only mexico colombia and poland have subscribed we consider both questions of selectivity and effectiveness first which variables explain the three countries participation in fcl arrangements and second to which extent has the fcl delivered on its promise of boosting market confidence in its respective users based on a probit analysis we show that fcl selectivity can be explained by both demand and supply side factors the probability of participation in the fcl was greater in countries that experienced larger prior exchange market pressures that had lower bond spreads and inflation that accounted for higher shares in us exports and that exhibited a higher propensity of making political concessions to the us using a synthetic control approach we find evidence for some but generally limited beneficial effects on sovereign bond spreads and gross capital inflows into the three fcl countries overall our results suggest that any economic stigma that may prevent eligible countries from entering into an fcl arrangement is unwarranted conversely the apparent link of fcl participation with us interests is not conducive to overcoming political stigma

an econometric analysis of changes in the cost and production structure of the trucking industry 1953 1982 a cost function is estimated using a time series cross section database for the trucking industry covering the time period from 1953 through 1982 i e after the implementation of the motor carrier act of 1980 which essentially deregulated the industry two conclusions emerge first similarities between early periods of regulation and deregulation are greater than between early and late periods of regulation second a comparison of the regulated and deregulated cost functions indicates that the heaviest burden of regulation was borne by those firms which faced the highest costs copyright 1988 by mit press

catalysing private capital flows do imf programmes work as commitment devices in this article we examine whether imf programmes influence the ability of developing country issuers to tap international bond markets and if they improve spreads paid on the bonds issued we find that fund programmes do not provide a uniformly favourable signalling effect instead the evidence is most consistent with a positive effect of imf programmes when they are viewed as likely to lead to policy reform and when undertaken before economic fundamentals have deteriorated significantly the size of the fund s programme matters but the credibility of a joint commitment by the country and the imf appears to be critical enhancing its members access to international capital markets is widely regarded as an important objective of the international monetary fund imf or fund though the objective is not an explicitly stated purpose in the fund s articles of agreements the flow of international capital is essential to such stated purposes as the stability of the international monetary system efficient trade and productive resource use and to providing confidence when a member country experiences difficulties with its balance of payments 1 the fund s interest in private international capital flows has moreover increased over the last decade reflecting this evolution the fund s former managing

energy substitution separability and technical progress in the australian iron and steel industry the effects of the energy crisis on the australian iron and steel industry are analyzed by using a flexible functional form the transcendental logarithmic translog function which represents a second order approximation of any twice differentiable function the robustness of the translog is analyzed with special attention paid to factor aggregation and separability conditions as they relate to the specification of the functions the estimation results suggest that capital and energy are substitutes that aggregation of administrative workers and production labor is inappropriate and that materials are weakly separable thereby allowing the estimation of a capital labor and energy model the data set developed covers the financial years from 1946 47 to 1978 79 this 33 year time series allows the use of different temporal subsets technical progress is shown to be capital and energy using and labor and material saving an energy submodel is specified using solid fuels oil electricity and gas an

imf conditionality as a screening device a theoretical model is developed in which adoption of an imf programme signals a country s productivity it is assumed that there are two types of country one with a high return on investment and the other with a low return the country s type is known only to itself in the presence of a debt overhang the high productivity country may choose not to undertake the investment despite it being socially efficient to do so in this case the creditor would like to offer the country some debt reduction but the low productivity type will also benefit from the debt reduction this problem can be avoided if the country has sufficient resources to engage in a debt buyback in order to gain the debt relief only the high productivity type would be prepared to sacrifice current resources for the debt reduction and thus a separation of the types is achieved this is similar to an argument found in acharya and diwan 1993 we argue however that it is unlikely that a heavily indebted country will have sufficient resources for a buyback if the country is credit constrained an alternative screening mechanism is to undertake an imf programme in return for debt reduction and possibly an imf loan this mechanism can be the equilibrium outcome even if the programme creates only disutility for the country s policy makers

labour inputs substitution during corporate restructuring a translog model approach for us freight railroads after deregulation in 1980 competitive pressures forced the large us freight railroads to reduce costs and restructure resulting in an economic renaissance of the us railroad companies after years of poor financial conditions the most striking restructuring measure receiving much attention was dramatic labour downsizing until 2004 employment was reduced by 60 but other overlooked measures are the significant restructuring of workforce composition and important changes in railroads workplace organization practices and corporate culture to better understand this successful occupational restructuring i investigate labour inputs substitutional relationships by using a translog variable cost model labour is decomposed into six employee categories rather than traditional production nonproduction breakdown to estimate inputs elasticities of substitution the data investigated is a unique firm level dataset on the us freight class i railroads covering a 22 year period which allows this fine grained a

railroad deregulation pricing reforms shipper responses and the effects on labor the staggers rail act of 1980 relaxed restrictions on pricing and eased abandonment procedures in the railroad industry although the act made virtually no reference to labor its impact on labor has been dramatic the long term contraction of industry employment accelerated quite sharply after 1980 wages increased until 1985 then declined substantially the authors whose empirical analysis uses data on aggregate rail employment for the years 1963 90 current population survey data for 1973 88 and evidence from collective bargaining agreements for 1971 90 argue that pricing adjustments under the staggers act led to changes in shipper behavior which in turn allowed for large declines in the derived demand for rail labor despite increasing output and the observed pattern of wage change followed from the realization of the act s eventual effects on employment

competition in public service provision the role of not for profit providers abstract with public services such as health and education it is not straightforward for consumers to assess the quality of provision many such services are provided by monopoly not for profit providers and there is concern that for profit providers may increase profit at the expense of quality this paper explores the implications of entry by for profit providers when there is unobserved quality the model generates three key policy relevant insights first by developing a novel approach to competition between different organizational forms it frames the relevant trade offs precisely second it shows the value of keeping an incumbent not for profit as an active provider third it characterizes the optimal payment or voucher value to an entrant for each consumer who switches in a way that can be applied empirically

economic determinants of imf financial arrangements abstract we analyze factors that lead to imf approval of financial arrangements we account for both economic variables that induce a country to seek an imf arrangement demand side factors and macroeconomic policy commitments that the imf considers when deciding whether to approve it supply side factors using a pooled sample of annual observations for 91 developing countries over 1973 1991 we obtain maximum likelihood bivariate and univariate probit estimates of the approval of an imf arrangement for a given country in a given year a number of demand side and supply side variables are statistically significant determinants of the approval of an imf arrangement

on us politics and imf lending abstract the political factors shaping imf lending to developing countries have attracted attention in recent empirical work this goes in particular for the role and influence of the us however scant formal modelling makes interpretation of empirical results difficult in this paper we propose a model in which the us acts as principal within the imf and seeks to maximize its impact on the policy stance of debtor countries we derive an optimal loan allocation mechanism which leads to the testable hypothesis that the probability of an imf loan is increasing in the amount of political concessions countries make a political concession is defined as the distance between a country s bliss point and its actual policy stance measured relative to the us we introduce a bliss point proxy and demonstrate that our hypothesis is strongly supported in the data moreover we show that not accounting for bliss points may lead to endogeneity bias in empirical work

imf lending programs participation and impact abstract participation in imf programs has been an option that more and more developing countries have exercised in recent years in this paper a detailed analysis of such participation over the period 1976 1986 provides a number of insights into the motivations for and the macroeconomic effects of such participation participation is driven by a combination of past performance present external influences and sluggish adjustment of developing countries the ability to predict which countries will participate in the imf program is quite good with nearly 90 percent of variation in such choices accounted for by the explanatory variables employed increased participation has as contemporaneous effects a reduction in economic growth and domestic investment and an improvement in the current account lagged effects of increased participation on economic growth and domestic investment are positive and in most estimates quantitatively greater than the contemporaneous effects there is also evidence of significantly lower public investment an increased budget surplus and real depreciation of the exchange rate with increased participation results for domestic credit creation and government current expenditure although they have a sign consistent with more austere policy cannot be shown to be significantly different from those not participating

slacks determinants in brazilian railways a distance friction minimization approach with fixed factors this study investigates the drivers for output increasing input saving potentials in the brazilian railway industry which has undergone significant transformations since its privatization in the mid 1990s the main research objective is to determine whether or not different types of cargoes and geographic regions serviced present a significant impact on railway slacks by applying a distance friction minimization dfm approach with fixed factors based on a balanced panel model secondary data from the period 2004 to 2012 were collected and analysed results support anecdotal evidence regarding a heterogeneous impact of types of cargo and geographic location on input reducing and output increasing potentials besides network length and average speed policy implications for railway authorities are also addressed by focusing on the specifics of each railway operator

substitution between production labor and other inputs in unionized and non unionized manufacturing the ease of substitution between labor and other factors of production is an important determinant of the elasticity of demand for labor and thus of the economic effects of unionism all else the same the greater the elasticity of substitution the greater is the elasticity of derived demand and the greater the displacement of labor for a given union induced wage increase in sectors where this elasticity is large unions are likely to be relatively weak and able to win only slight wage gains freeman and medoff 1981 and forthcoming or if they win large gains will have to pay a high price in terms of lost jobs in the sectors where the elasticity is small unions may be able to extract a substantial wage premium at little cost in terms of employment moreover as a simple general equilibrium model indicates the elasticity of substitution between labor and other factors in the unionized sector is a key parameter in determining the impact of the iiunion wage effect on the earnings of nonunion workers and on the efficiency of the economy johnson and mieskowski 1970 despite the importance of the elasticity of labor demand for an analysis of unionism little attention has been given to the absolute and relative magnitude of this elasticity under collective bargaining while there is some discussion of technological change and the substitution of capital and nonproduction workers for organized production workers in the institutional literature e g slichter 1941 slichter healy and livernash 1960 bok and dunlop 1970 modern econometric work provides no estimates of the relevant parameters as a result johnson and mieskowski 1970 rees 1963 lewis 1964 and others have been forced to evaluate union effects with guesstimates of the elasticities of concern in union settings this paper attempts to fill some of the gap in our knowledge by providing estimates for u s manufacturing of the constant output elasticity of demand for unionized and nonunionized production workers and of the elasticity of substitution between these workers and other inputs the analysis concentrates on what we call the relative inelasticity hypothesis which states that the demand for production workers will be more inelastic in the presence of a union for two reasons the likelihood that unions have organized and survived in sectors with low elasticities and the effects of various contract provisions on the ability of management to substitute other factors for production labor the study is divided into four sections section i develops the rationale for the relative inelasticity hypothesis and describes the nature of the empirical analysis conducted to test its validity the second section uses a 1972 state by 2 digit standard industrial classification sic industry data file for manufacturing to estimate the elasticity of substitution between production labor and both nonproduction labor and capital in the union and nonunion sectors of u s manufacturing industries section iii provides estimates based on a 1968 72 sample of manufacturing establishments of the elasticity of substitution between production and nonproduction labor the only two inputs for which information is available the final section briefly summarizes the findings and discusses their implications for understanding the impact of trade unionism on the u s economy to preview the ensuing discussion our main conclusion is substitution between production labor and other inputs is generally lower in union received for publication march 6 1978 revision accepted for publication august 17 1981 both authors are with harvard university and the national bureau of economic research supported by u s department of labor grant no j 9 m 6 0094 national science foundation grant no apt77 16279 and the national bureau of economic research under its program of research on labor economics we are especially grateful to jane mather for her invaluable assistance on this project and to greg bialecki charles brown gary chamberlain kathy coons jon fay martin van denburgh and lori wilson for their significant contributions the study has not been reviewed by the board of directors of the national bureau

exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks this paper evaluates the causes and consequences of episodes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets using data from 1959 through 1993 for twenty oecd countries we consider the antecedents and aftermath of devaluations and revaluations flotations fixings and speculative attacks which may not be successful we find that realignments of fixed exchange rates are alike devaluations are preceded by political instability budget and current account deficits and fast growth of money and prices revaluations are mirror images of devaluations speculative attacks resemble devaluations but money growth and inflation are more endemic and there is no last minute attempt to tighten monetary policy in contrast few consistent correlations link regime transitions like flotations or fixings to macroeconomic or political variables transitions between exchange rate regimes are largely idiosyncratic and are neither consistently provoked ex ante by systematic imbalances nor typically justified ex post by subsequent changes in policy we conclude that there are no clear early warning signals of many speculative attacks and no easy solutions for policy makers barry eichengreen andrew k rose and charles wyplosz

global horse trading imf loans for votes in the united nations security council we investigate whether temporary members of the united nations security council receive favorable treatment from the international monetary fund imf using panel data for 197 countries over the period from 1951 to 2004 our results indicate a robust positive relationship between temporary security council membership and participation in imf programs even after accounting for economic political and country specific factors there is also evidence that security council membership reduces the number of conditions included in imf programs imf loans seem to be a mechanism by which the major shareholders of the fund can win favor with voting members of the security council

tenure issues in higher education the system of tenure that dominates american higher education has long been a source of controversy the institution of tenure has been attacked for entrenching a lazy professoriate more interested in attending faraway conferences and producing unreadable research than in teaching or developing practical insights while on the other hand it has long been defended as an absolute necessity for the defense of open intellectual inquiry the tenure controversy has been sharpened in recent years by several events the end of mandatory retirement which was abolished by federal law effective january 1 1994 has heightened concerns about the productivity and commitment of professors who received tenure long ago and who no longer have the same incentives to invest in long term reputation there is also ongoing concern over the steadily rising cost of higher education which raises the question of what students as well as the taxpayers who support public institutions of higher education are getting for their money 1 the idea that tenure is a wasteful institution for universities runs up against the puzzling fact that the commitment to tenure is one that academic institutions impose on themselves although the american association of university professors aaup provides a powerful lobby in favor of tenure generally colleges and universities most notably private ones are under no legal requirement to observe tenure constraints although as administrators we certainly feel the weight of those constraints our view is that a tenure system in fact provides important benefits to society and to colleges and universities we argue here that the role of tenure is

the economic characteristics of imf program countries abstract a logit analysis is utilized to identify the factors that characterized developing nations that entered imf stabilization programs in the early 1980s program countries recorded higher rates of domestic credit growth larger shares of government expenditure more severe current account deficits smaller reserve holdings and lower per capita incomes