the indian gaming regulatory act and its effects on american indian economic development the indian gaming regulatory act igra passed by the us congress in 1988 was a watershed in the history of policymaking directed toward reservation resident american indians igra set the stage for tribal government owned gaming facilities it also shaped how this new industry would develop and how tribal governments would invest gaming revenues since then indian gaming has approached commercial state licensed gaming in total revenues gaming operations have had a far reaching and transformative effect on american indian reservations and their economies specifically indian gaming has allowed marked improvements in several important dimensions of reservation life for the first time some tribal governments have moved to fiscal independence native nations have invested gaming revenues in their economies and societies often with dramatic effect

future demand scenarios of bangladesh power sector abstract data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system the purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in bangladesh forecast sector wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005 and compare the results with official projections the long range energy alternative planning leap model with three scenarios namely low gross domestic product gdp growth average gdp growth and high gdp growth is applied in this study in the low to high gdp growth scenarios the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased the findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development the study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in bangladesh to meet the high future demand

electricity consumption and economic growth in seven south american countries abstract this paper attempts to investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among seven south american countries namely argentina brazil chile columbia ecuador peru and venezuela using widely accepted time series techniques for the period 1975 2006 the results indicate that the causal nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth varies across countries there is a unidirectional short run causality from electricity consumption to real gdp for argentina brazil chile columbia and ecuador this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth in those countries in venezuela there is a bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth this implies that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in that country however no causal relationships exist in peru the documented evidence from seven south american countries can provide useful information for each government with regard to energy and growth policy

reservation wages an analysis of the effects of reservations on employment of american indian men american indians have experienced a large degree of difficulty in the labor market they have lower levels of labor force participation higher levels of unemployment and lower wages than the rest of the population which in turn leads to lower median household income and higher poverty rates despite the fact that these economic problems are particularly acute for indians living on reservations no previous research has examined the effects of reservations on individual employment rates controlling for other observable attributes in this paper we examine the effects of reservations on employment using a sample of young males from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 nlsy79 we compare outcomes for indians with those of a nationally representative cross section of the same birth cohort controlling for i contemporaneous proximity to a reservation and ii whether the respondent lived at age 14 in a county with a reservation controlling for other factors including local labor market conditions proximity to a reservation reduces the probability of employment among indian men by 11 percentage points having lived in a county with a reservation at age 14 reduces the probability of employment among indian men by 5 10 percentage points neither measure of proximity to a reservation reduces employment of other groups

electricity demand analysis using cointegration and arima modelling a case study of turkey in the early 2000s the republic of turkey has initiated an ambitious reform program in her electricity market which requires privatization liberalization as well as a radical restructuring the most controversial reason behind or justification for recent reforms has been the rapid electricity demand growth that is to say the whole reform process has been a part of the endeavors to avoid the so called energy crisis using cointegration analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average arima modelling the present article focuses on this issue by both providing an electricity demand estimation and forecast and comparing the results with official projections the study concludes first that consumers respond to price and income changes is quite limited and therefore there is a need for economic regulation in turkish electricity market and second that the current official electricity demand projections highly overestimate the electricity demand which may endanger the development of both a coherent energy policy in general and a healthy electricity market in particular

disease and development evidence from hookworm eradication in the american south this study evaluates the economic consequences of the successful eradication of hookworm disease from the american south the hookworm eradication campaign c 1910 began soon after i the discovery that a variety of health problems among southerners could be attributed to the disease and ii the donation by john d rockefeller of a substantial sum to the effort the rockefeller sanitary commission rsc surveyed infection rates in the affected areas eleven southern states and found that an average of forty percent of school aged children were infected with hookworm the rsc then sponsored treatment and education campaigns across the region follow up studies indicate that this campaign substantially reduced hookworm disease almost immediately the sudden introduction of this treatment combines with the cross area differences in pre treatment infection rates to form the basis of the identification strategy areas with higher levels of hookworm infection prior to the rsc experienced greater increases in school enrollment attendance and literacy after the intervention this result is robust to controlling for a variety of alternative factors including differential trends across areas changing crop prices shifts in certain educational and health policies and the effect of malaria eradication no significant contemporaneous results are found for adults who should have benefited less from the intervention owing to their substantially lower prior infection rates a long term follow up of affected cohorts indicates a substantial gain in income that coincided with exposure to hookworm eradication i also find evidence that eradication increased the return to schooling

two part pricing for a multi product monopolist this paper examines profit maximizing multi part pricing arrangements by multi product monopolists the results indicate that prices set by such firms will deviate from the marginal cost pricing efficiency norm when multi part tariffs can be set on only a subset of the firm s product line per unit prices will be set above marginal cost when the monopolist sells goods that are substitutes while per unit prices for complements may be set above or below marginal cost in either case the pricing strategy will involve increasing the demand for goods on which an entry fee can beset

availibility of renewable energy sources in turkey current situation potential government policies and the eu perspective abstract this study aims to explore the availability and potential of renewable energy sources in turkey as well as assessing related government policies financial and environmental aspects of renewable energy projects turkey is a country which has the highest hydropower wind and geothermal energy potential among european countries as a european union eu candidate several incentives were developed in turkey for electricity generation from renewable energy sources by the enactment of law no 5346 in 2005 which was later restructured by law no 6094 in 2010 the most important ones are ease of land acquisition and feed in tariffs which promise purchasing of electricity generated and domestic manufacturing of equipment by the private companies with a price of 5 30 9 69 and 0 3 2 55 c kwh respectively depending on the type of the renewable and the equipment however feed in tariff amounts take reservoir area into account instead of installed capacity for hydroelectric power plants moreover environmental impact assessment eia report is not mandatory for all renewable energy plants according to the multi criteria analysis tool developed in this study to evaluate the renewable energy source res technologies the most appropriate renewable energy alternative for turkey is biomass simply because of the highest social benefit among others

energy models for demand forecasting a review abstract energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation be it social economic or environment in the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security energy is linked to industrial production agricultural output health access to water population education quality of life etc energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources during the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs in this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models traditional methods such as time series regression econometric arima as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic genetic algorithm and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management support vector regression ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting bottom up models such as markal and leap are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management

public health investments and the infant mortality gap evidence from federal sanitation interventions on u s indian reservations abstract to what extent do differential levels of investment in public health inputs explain observed differences in health outcomes across socioeconomic and racial groups this study investigates the impact of 3700 projects that were part of a widespread federal initiative to improve sanitation infrastructure on u s indian reservations starting in 1960 sanitation investment substantially reduced the cost of clean water for households leading to sharp reductions in both waterborne gastrointestinal disease and infectious respiratory disease among native american infants the sanitation program was quite cost effective in part because improvements in the overall disease environment also reduced infectious respiratory disease among nearby white infants despite the health externalities federal sanitation interventions explain almost forty percent of the convergence in native american and white infant mortality rates in reservation counties since 1970

turkey s short term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach abstract this paper aims to forecast turkey s short term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given unlike most of the other forecast models about turkey s electricity demand which usually uses more than one parameter gross domestic product gdp based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970 2014 the model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3 9 furthermore the model estimates a 4 5 decrease in electricity demand of turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4 between 2010 and 2014 it is concluded that forecasting the turkey s short term gross electricity demand with the country s economic performance will provide more reliable projections forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper the advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning

incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix the present work aims to examine the strategic decision of future electricity generation mix considering together with all other factors the effect of the external cost associated with the available power generation technology options not only during their operation but also during their whole life cycle the analysis has been performed by integrating the life cycle assessment concept into a linear programming model for the yearly decisions on which option should be used to minimize the electricity generation cost the model has been applied for the case of greece for the years 2012 2050 and has led to several interesting results firstly most of the new generating capacity should be renewable mostly biomass and wind while natural gas is usually the only conventional fuel technology chosen if externalities are considered wind energy increases its share and hydro power replaces significant amounts of biomass generated energy furthermore a sensitivity analysis has been performed one of the most important findings is that natural gas increases its contribution when externalities are increased summing up external cost has been found to be a significant percentage of the total electricity generation cost for some energy sources therefore significantly changing the ranking order of cost competitiveness for the energy sources examined

water for life the impact of the privatization of water services on child mortality while most countries are committed to increasing access to safe water and thereby reducing child mortality there is little consensus on how to actually improve water services one important proposal under discussion is whether to privatize water provision in the 1990s argentina embarked on one of the largest privatization campaigns in the world including the privatization of local water companies covering approximately 30 percent of the country s municipalities using the variation in ownership of water provision across time and space generated by the privatization process we find that child mortality fell 8 percent in the areas that privatized their water services and that the effect was largest 26 percent in the poorest areas we check the robustness of these estimates using cause specific mortality while privatization is associated with significant reductions in deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases it is uncorrelated with deaths from causes unrelated to water conditions

energy consumption economic growth and prices a reassessment using panel vecm for developed and developing countries this paper reinvestigates the energy consumption gdp growth nexus in a panel error correction model using data on 20 net energy importers and exporters from 1971 to 2002 among the energy exporters there was bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption in the developed countries in both the short and long run while in the developing countries energy consumption stimulates growth only in the short run the former result is also found for energy importers and the latter result exists only for the developed countries within this category in addition compared to the developing countries the developed countries elasticity response in terms of economic growth from an increase in energy consumption is larger although its income elasticity is lower and less than unitary lastly the implications for energy policy calling for a more holistic approach are discussed c 2006 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

application of residual modification approach in seasonal arima for electricity demand forecasting a case study of china abstract electricity demand forecasting could prove to be a useful policy tool for decision makers thus accurate forecasting of electricity demand is valuable in allowing both power generators and consumers to make their plans although a seasonal arima model is widely used in electricity demand analysis and is a high precision approach for seasonal data forecasting errors are unavoidable in the forecasting process consequently a significant research goal is to further improve forecasting precision to help people in the electricity sectors make more sensible decisions this study proposes residual modification models to improve the precision of seasonal arima for electricity demand forecasting in this study pso optimal fourier method seasonal arima model and combined models of pso optimal fourier method with seasonal arima are applied in the northwest electricity grid of china to correct the forecasting results of seasonal arima the modification models forecasting of the electricity demand appears to be more workable than that of the single seasonal arima the results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the three residual modification models is higher than the single seasonal arima model and that the combined model is the most satisfactory of the three models

where does economic development really come from constitutional rule among the contemporary sioux and apache governments are public goods that provide the organizational and legal structures by which societies arrange and enforce rules of the game that enable divisions of labor exchange and collective action we argue that shared pre constitutional cultural norms of political legitimacy among rational individuals provide the foundations of effective self government the performance of contemporary apache and sioux economies on indian reservations governed by common federally imposed constitutions is examined to test the framework unlike the impoverished sioux the relatively successful apaches are found to have pre existing political norms that serendipidously match the structure of their formal constitution

consumer s surplus without apology the purpose of this paper is to settle the controversy surrounding consumer s surplus and by so doing to validate its use as a tool of welfare economics i will show that observed consumer s surplus can be rigorously utilized to estimate the unobservable compensating and equivalent variations the correct theoretical measures of the welfare impact of changes in prices and income on an individual i derive precise upper and lower bounds on the percentage errors of approximating the compensating and equivalent variations with consumer s surplus these bounds can be explicitly calculated from observable demand data and it is clear that in most applications the error of approximation will be very small in fact the error will often be overshadowed by the errors involved in estimating the demand curve the results in no way depend upon arguments about the constancy of the marginal utility of income consequently this paper supplies specific empirical criteria which can replace the apologetic caveats frequently employed by those who presently apply consumer s surplus moreover the results imply that consumer s surplus is usually a very good approximation to the appropriate welfare measures to preview below i establish the validity of these rules of thumb for a

using mandated speed limits to measure the value of a statistical life in 1987 the federal government permitted states to raise the speed limit on their rural interstate roads but not on their urban interstate roads from 55 mph to 65 mph since the states that adopted the higher speed limit must have valued the travel hours they saved more than the fatalities incurred this institutional change provides an opportunity to estimate an upper bound on the public s willingness to trade off wealth for a change in the probability of death our estimates indicate that the adoption of the 65 mph limit increased speeds by approximately 4 percent or 2 5 mph and fatality rates by roughly 35 percent together the estimates suggest that about 125 000 hours were saved per lost life when the time saved is valued at the average hourly wage the estimates imply that adopting states were willing to accept risks that resulted in a savings of 1 54 million 1997 dollars per fatality with a sampling error roughly one third this value we set out a simple model of states decisions to adop

institutional assets for negotiating the terms of development indigenous collective action and oil in ecuador and alaska abstract case studies of two oil fields with superficial similarities same company same time period similar anticipated scale of production similar remote field design similarly situated in indigenous territory show radically different benefits for the adjacent indigenous communities this analysis finds that the major differences driving these results are institutional primarily differences in property rights regimes and secondarily in local institutional development in the alaska context the community was able to negotiate a direct share of the royalties while the ecuadorian community was entitled only to an indirect revenue share from the national government both communities also negotiated for various community assistance projects from the company the ecuadorian communities likely would have succeeded in instituting their sustainable development proposal if they had stronger local organization comparative analysis of the factors for local institutional development fit well in the conceptual

transaction cost two part tariffs and collusion i introduction this paper studies a situation in which cartelization serves to reduce prices and improve social welfare the unusual outcome can be attributed to demand complementarity that exists between the goods under consideration because market demand functions exhibit such complementarity a reduction in either seller s price raises the demand for the other seller s product a cartel internalizes this cross effect and sets prices at relatively low levels whereas the same firms acting as rivals ignore the interdependence and set prices somewhat higher the complementarity originates from transaction costs that customers pay in order to participate in exchange hence complementarity exhibits a specific mathematical form in market demand functions one could even adopt the view that these transaction costs are the underlying circumstance that makes collusion socially more attractive than rivalry another feature that must be mentioned is firms use of two part tariffs under this pricing scheme the customer pays a seller an entrance fee to obtain the privilege of purchasing merchandise then also pays a per unit price on merchandise actually obtained in the context of two part tariffs the paper s main finding can be stated as follows the sum of entrance fees facing customers is smaller when sellers form a cartel than when they set prices independently however per unit prices are the same whether sellers collude or not this model with transaction costs appropriately describes a geographical marketplace such as a shopping mall or central business district in which potential customers face expenses for transportation within the centralized shopping area a department store assesses customers an annual fee for the privilege of shopping this is the store s entrance fee in addition to per unit prices on merchandise a health spa next door imposes membership dues and pay as you go fees on its services a theater sells passes another type of entrance fee that entitle holders to special rates on movies attended later a similar situation is tourism in which case the tourist encounters expenses when traveling to a vacation or convention site at this location hotels charge a daily entrance fee for lodging plus something additional for each meal and telephone call rental cars are available for a fixed charge plus an added price per mile driven entertainment e g disneyland might be marketed through a two part tariff as well a different sort of transaction cost is the expense of educating oneself before being able to effectively utilize certain goods and services speculating in the stock market say requires prior study of finance and irs rules after paying this initial transaction cost the ready investor encounters two part tariffs through which related services are sold entrance fees might take several forms a stock broker levies an annual maintenance charge on accounts an advisory service s newsletter is available at a fixed subscription rate a mutual fund charges new shareholders a roughly constant load it is argued below that these entrance fees would all be lower if the vendors formed a cartel two part tariffs have been studied in this journal before murphy 1977 computes a monopolistic seller s profit maximizing multi part tariff although the seller cannot discriminate between rich and poor customers ex ante self sorting occurs if the seller designs the correct price schedule scott and morrell 1985 investigate a two good monopoly that employs two part tariffs if one good s entrance fee must be set equal to zero for exogenous reasons then optimal values of the remaining price parameters hinge on the exact nature of demand interdependence strong results are obtained when customers are identical levin 1988 compares the stackelberg nash and collusive behavior of firms that employ ordinary pricing in another journal stahl 1982 analyzes rivalry and collusion when buyers pay transportation costs and vendors use ordinary linear pricing

the convergence in black white infant mortality rates during the 1960 s the dramatic reduction in the black white earnings gap from 1965 to 1975 represents the most significant period of economic progress for african americans in the post world war ii era after 25 years of contentious research economists have arrived at a consensus that title vii of the 1964 civil rights act which outlawed employment discrimination was a major factor underlying the post 1965 trend break in relative earnings john j donahue and james j heckman 1991 david card and alan krueger 1993 a key piece of supporting evidence is that most gains were concentrated among black workers in the south where title vii had its biggest impact the mortality rate of black infants relative to white infants is another clearly important measure of the relative well being of africanamericans surprisingly and in contrast to the relative earnings literature there are very few studies that focus on long run trends in the relative health of black infants over time in addition the existing research is based on highly aggregated data both across regions and over time which provide little information on the precise location and timing of infant mortality changes by race consequently the evidence on the specific factors underlying significant changes in black white infant health outcomes is sparse and often anecdotal an examination of infant death rates within a year of birth for whites and nonwhites and the nonwhite white infant mortality rate imr ratio from 1933 1990 in the united states reveals many striking patterns figure available from authors upon request immediately before world war ii about 4 1 percent of white infants and 7 5 percent of black infants died within a year of birth during world war ii there was a large decline in black infant mortality rates and in the black white ratio since world war ii there has been a secular increase in the black white imr ratio with one notable exception in the narrow period of 1965 1970 the black imr and the black white ratio declined sharply relative to preexisting trends relatively stable during 1961 1965 the black imr fell 30 percent from 4 0 per 100 live births in 1965 to 2 8 in 1971 at the same time the black white ratio fell from 1 9 to 1 65 the only prolonged convergence in the post world war ii era the national patterns suggest that 1965 1970 is the key period for improvements in the relative health of black infants over the past 50 years this study examines trends in black white rates of infant death during 1955 1975 to document the location of the improvements we collected data by race at the state and rural urban levels which has not been previously done using simple descriptive models we find discussants david meltzer university of chicago and nber kenneth chay university of california berkeley and nber jeffrey grogger university of california los angeles and nber dan black syracuse university

energy consumption and gdp in turkey is there a co integration relationship energy consumption and gdp are expected to grow by 5 9 and 7 annually until 2025 in turkey this paper tries to unfold the linkage between energy consumption and gdp by undertaking a co integration analysis for turkey with annual data over the period 1970 2003 the analysis shows that energy consumption and gdp are co integrated this means that there is a possibly bi directional causality relationship between the two we establish that there is a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption indicating that energy saving would not harm economic growth in turkey in addition we find that energy consumption keeps on growing as long as the economy grows in turkey

forecasting annual gross electricity demand by artificial neural networks using predicted values of socio economic indicators and climatic conditions case of turkey abstract in this work the annual gross electricity demand of turkey was modeled by multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks as a function population gross domestic product per capita inflation percentage unemployment percentage average summer temperature and average winter temperature among these the unemployment percentage and the average winter temperature were found to be insignificant to determine the demand for the years between 1975 and 2013 next the future values of the statistically significant variables were predicted by time series ann models and these were simulated in a multilayer perceptron ann model to forecast the future annual electricity demand the results were validated with a very high accuracy for the years that the electricity demand was known 2007 2013 and they were also superior to the official predictions done by ministry of energy and natural resources of turkey the model was then used to forecast the annual gross electricity demand for the future years and it was found that the demand will be doubled reaching about 460 tw h in the year 2028 finally it was concluded that the approach applied in this work can easily be implemented for other countries to make accurate predictions for the future