micro to macro simulation a primer with a labor market example simulation models now widely used in the physical sciences can also help economists in depicting the actions and interactions of individuals and firms through time such models can be built and run on any personal computer they can illuminate a wide variety of issues that are difficult to analyze with an economist s conventional tool kit and are especially useful in studying dynamic processes microsimulation models allow the analyst to produce simulated aggregate time series that are rigorously consistent with the assumptions made about behavior on the micro level thus simulations provide a means of bridging the micro macro split in economic analysis this article provides an introduction to microsimulation how it works how to do it its potential and its drawbacks it then allows readers even those with no experience in computer programming to work through the details of a simple microsimulation model readers can put this model on their pcs watch it run through its paces and experiment with their own modifications with this model as an example it should be fairly easy to create programs for new models on other subjects for use in theoretical exploration empirical research or classroom demonstrations the demonstration model i present depicts the experience of individual workers during recession and recovery in the labor market as the model runs its internal census bureau performs surveys on the microlevel and sums up to macrolevel variables the model is simple but it has some interesting applications after explaining how to set it up i use it to explore the effect of unemployment insurance on the level of unemployment and to point up a common fallacy in current labor market literature

what went wrong the erosion of relative earnings and employment among young black men in the 1980s this paper shows a widening in black white earnings and employment gaps among young men from the mid 1970s through the 1980s earnings gaps increased most among college graduates and in the midwest while gaps in employment population rates grew most among dropouts we attribute the differential widening to shifts in demand for subgroups due to shifting industry and regional employment the falling real minimum wage and deunionization the growing supply of black to white workers that was marked among college graduates and to increased crime among dropouts the different factors affecting subgroups highlight the economic diversity of black americans

racial disparities in job finding and offered wages abstractthe extent to which discrimination can explain racial wage gaps is one of the most divisive issues in the social sciences using a newly available data set this paper develops a simple empirical test that under plausible but not innocuous conditions provides a lower bound on the extent of discrimination in the labor market taken at face value our estimates imply that differential treatment accounts for at least one third of the black white wage gap we argue that the patterns in our data are most naturally rationalized through a search matching model in which employers statistically discriminate on the basis of race when hiring unemployed workers but learn about their marginal product over time

ex ante and ex post labor supply response to risk in a low income area abstract this paper tests for ex ante and ex post labor supply responses to weather risk for rural indian farm households the analysis uses panel data on 2115 households spanning 13 states in rural india merged with a 22 year series of district level rainfall data ex ante households facing riskier distributions of rainfall are more likely to participate in the labor market ex post unexpectedly bad weather and low rainfall increase labor force participation

fiscal federalism at work central responses to internal migration in india summary internal migration is thought to have substantial benefits for migrants and for the development of migrant sending and migrant receiving areas in order to facilitate such migration central governments may need to use fiscal transfers to ensure services to migrants address infrastructure shortfalls and ameliorate labor market displacement of natives in fact an extensive mostly normative fiscal federalism literature has argued that central governments ought to use transfers to reduce interjurisdictional externalities such as those due to population displacements we extend this literature empirically by examining the degree to which exogenous longterm migration prompts the redirection of central fiscal resources in india following the literature on distributive politics we argue that transfers in decentralized systems addressing the costs of population movements are influenced by partisan politics using monsoon shocks to migration we show that increases in migration are met with greater central transfers but that these flows are at least 50 greater if the state level executive is in the prime minister s political party consistent with the theory the influence of politics is greatest on parts of the budget subject to greater executive control this politicization may explain why indian states maintain barriers to internal migration despite the development costs of doing so

rainfall and conflict a cautionary tale abstract there is evidence that in some contexts income shocks cause conflict the literature demonstrating this relationship uses rainfall shocks to instrument for income shocks arguing that in agriculturally dependent regions negative rain shocks lower income which incites violence this identification strategy relies on the assumption that rainfall shocks affect conflict only through their impacts on income this paper evaluates this exclusion restriction in the context of religious conflict in india using data on dam construction i identify districts that are downstream from irrigation dams and show that income in these areas is much less sensitive to rainfall fluctuations however rain shocks remain equally strong predictors of riot incidence in these districts i explore other channels through which rainfall might affect conflict

pollution and politician productivity the effect of pm on mps applying methods of textual analysis to all 119 225 speeches made in the canadian house of commons between 2006 and 2011 we establish that air pollution reduces the speech quality of canadian members of parliament mps exposure to fine particulate matter concentrations exceeding 15 g m3 causes a 2 3 reduction in the quality of mps speech equivalent to a 2 6 month decrease in education for more difficult communication tasks the decrement in quality is equivalent to the loss of 6 5 months of schooling our design accounts for the potential endogeneity of exposure and controls for many potential confounders including individual fixed effects

roy model sorting and nonrandom selection in the valuation of a statistical life roy model sorting and the vsl wage hedonics is used to recover the value of a statistical life vsl by exploiting the fact that workers choosing riskier occupations are compensated with a higher wage roy oxford economic papers 3 1951 135 46 suggests that observed wage distributions will be distorted if individuals choose jobs according to idiosyncratic returns we describe how this type of sorting biases wage hedonic vsl estimates and implement two new estimation strategies that correct that bias using data from the current population surveys we recover vsl estimates that are three to four times larger than those based on the traditional techniques statistically significant and robust to a wide array of specifications

taste based or statistical discrimination the economics of discrimination returns to its roots we briefly review the evolution of empirical work on discrimination we discuss why traditional regression based approaches neither convincingly measure market discrimination nor disentangle the relative importance of animus versus statistical discrimination in explaining such discrimination as exists we describe the development of modern correspondence studies we argue that these studies have the promise to credibly identify the presence of discrimination if not its magnitude can inform us about the underlying mechanism generating discrimination and can also point to avenues for new theoretical and empirical work on discrimination we discuss two articles with exemplary applications of these new methods at least since becker 1957 economists have been deeply interested in the presence of discrimination in markets in the 1970s and into the 1980s there was an active debate in the literature about whether discrimination was better described by becker s taste based discrimination model or by arrow and phelps statistical discrimination model that debate gave way to a theoretical literature that advanced each model separately and to an empirical literature focused on documenting the presence of disparities and the effects of policies designed to counteract discrimination only recently has the literature returned to the question of whether taste based or statistical discrimination is a more appropriate description of the phenomenon the two articles that follow are good examples of the move towards an understanding of the mechanisms underlying discrimination in this article we attempt to place the literature s recent direction into context and to show how it is a natural place for economists studying discrimination to arrive given where we began in the economics of discrimination becker explored ways in which individual tastes for discrimination might interact in a market setting to produce discriminatory outcomes for market participants becker described three models each considering a different source of discriminatory tastes employers co workers and customers the economics of discrimination included deep insights about discrimination becker clarified the distinction between individual tastes for discrimination and market discrimination he clarified the difference between segregation and market discrimination and he showed how the market might produce incentives for those with discriminatory tastes to avoid interaction with those towards whom they harbour animus 1

particulate matter and labor supply the role of caregiving and non linearities this paper examines the effect of air pollution on labor supply in lima peru it focuses on fine particulate matter pm2 5 an important pollutant for health according to the medical literature and shows that moderate levels of pollution reduce hours worked for working adults the research design takes advantage of rich household panel data in labor outcomes to address omitted variables and allows investigation of whether the response to air pollution is non linear the analysis finds that the effect of moderate pollution levels on hours worked is concentrated among households with susceptible dependents that is small children and elderly adults while the highest concentrations affect all households this suggests that caregiving is likely a mechanism linking air pollution to labor supply at moderate levels further evidence of this mechanism is provided using dhs data on children morbidity for the same time period finally no evidence is found of intra household attenuation behavior for instance there is no re allocation of labor across household members and earnings decrease with air pollution

clearing the air the effects of gasoline content regulation on air quality this paper examines the effects of u s gasoline content regulations on groundlevel ozone pollution these regulations are costly and have been shown to fragment gasoline markets and raise prices paid by consumers we provide the first comprehensive empirical estimates of the regulations air quality benefits we exploit the fact that gasoline regulations vary by time and place of introduction using both difference in difference and regression discontinuity designs we show that federal regulations targeting the emissions of volatile organic compounds vocs one of the two main precursors to ozone do not substantially improve air quality this outcome is driven by the response of refiners to the regulation minimizing the cost of abatement involves removing a type of voc from gasoline that is not an important determinant of ozone pollution in california however we show that precisely targeted regulations requiring the removal of vocs particularly prone to forming ozone caused a significant improvement in air quality

confronting the environmental kuznets curve t he environmental kuznets curve posits an inverted u relationship between pollution and economic development kuznets s name was apparently attached to the curve by grossman and krueger 1993 who noted its resemblance to kuznets s inverted u relationship between income inequality and development in the first stage of industrialization pollution in the environmental kuznets curve world grows rapidly because people are more interested in jobs and income than clean air and water communities are too poor to pay for abatement and environmental regulation is correspondingly weak the balance shifts as income rises leading industrial sectors become cleaner people value the environment more highly and regulatory institutions become more effective along the curve pollution levels off in the middle income range and then falls toward pre industrial levels in wealthy societies the environmental kuznets curve model has elicited conflicting reactions from researchers and policymakers applied econometricians have generally accepted the basic tenets of the model and focused on measuring its parameters their regressions typically fitted to cross sectional observations across countries or regions suggest that air and water pollution increase with development until per capita income reaches a range of 5000 to 8000 when income rises beyond that level pollution starts to decline as shown in the conventional ekc line in figure 1 in developing countries some policymakers have interpreted such results as conveying a message about priorities grow first then clean up numerous critics have challenged the conventional environmental kuznets curve both as a representation of what actually happens in the development process and as a policy prescription some pessimistic critics argue that crosssectional evidence for the environmental kuznets curve is nothing more than a

environment health and human capital in this review we discuss three major contributions economists have made to our understanding of the relationship between the environment and individual well being first in explicitly recognizing how optimizing behavior particularly in the form of residential sorting can lead to nonrandom assignment of pollution economists have employed a wide range of quasi experimental techniques to develop causal estimates of the effect of pollution second economic research has placed a considerable focus on the role of avoidance behavior which is an important component for understanding the difference between biological and behavioral effects of pollution and for proper welfare calculations lastly economic research has expanded the focus of analysis beyond traditional health outcomes to include measures of human capital including labor supply productivity and cognition our review of the quasi experimental evidence on this topic suggests that pollution does indeed have a wide range of effects on individual well being even at levels well below current regulatory standards given the importance of health and human capital as an engine for economic growth these findings underscore the role of environmental conditions as an important factor of production jel i12 i31 j24 q51 q53

the labor market effects of sex and race discrimination laws westudytheeffectsofstatesexandracediscriminationlawsthatwerepassedprior to federal antidiscrimination legislation state sex discrimination laws targeted discrimination in pay only because an equal pay constraint raises the relative price of female labor we would expect the relative employment of females to decline we find robust evidence that state equal pay laws for women reduced relative employment of both black women and white women we also find some evidence of positive effects of race discrimination laws on earnings of blacks relative to whites although no evidence of employment effects jel j15 j16 j18 j23 i introduction public policies to narrow the gaps in labor market outcomes between men and women and between whites and minorities have a long and controversial history two pieces of federal legislation stand out as perhaps the most significant such policies the first was the equal pay act of 1963 which requires equal pay for equal work noting some exceptions but explicitly prohibiting a worker s sex as one of them the second was title vii of the civilrightsactof1964 makingitillegaltodiscriminate in hiring discharge compensation and so on on the basis of race color religion sex or national origin two other important landmarks in the evolution of these policies at the federal level were amendments to title vii embodied in the equal employment opportunity act eeoa of 1972 which expanded coverage and increased the enforcement powers of the equal employment opportunity commission eeoc and executive orders 10925 1961 11246 1965 and 11375 1967 which laid the groundwork for affirmative action although the phrase has its origins in title vii 1

do political protests matter evidence from the tea party movement can protests cause political change or are they merely symptoms of underlying shifts in policy preferences this paper studies the effect of the tea party movement in the united states which rose to prominence through a series of rallies across the country on april 15 tax day 2009 to identify the causal effect of protests we use an instrumental variables approach that exploits variation in rainfall on the day of the coordinated rallies weather on tax day robustly predicts rally attendance and the subsequent local strength of the movement as measured by donations media coverage social networking activity and later events we show that larger rallies cause an increase in turnout in favor of the republicans in the 2010 congressional elections and increase the likelihood that incumbent democratic representatives retire incumbent policymaking is affected as well representatives respond to large protests in their district by voting more conservatively in congress finally the estimates imply significant multiplier effects for every protester republican votes increase by seven to fourteen votes together our results show that protests can build political movements that ultimately affect policy and they suggest that it is unlikely that these effects arise solely through the standard channel of private information revelation

can workfare programs moderate conflict evidence from india can public interventions persistently reduce conflict adverse weather shocks through their impact on incomes have been identified as robust drivers of conflict in many contexts an effective social insurance system moderates the impact of adverse shocks on household incomes and hence could attenuate the link between these shocks and conflict this paper shows that a public employment program in india by providing an alternative source of income through a guarantee of 100 days of employment at minimum wages effectively provides insurance this has an indirect pacifying effect by weakening the link between productivity shocks and incomes the program uncouples productivity shocks from conflict leading persistently lower conflict levels

the costs of low birth weight birth weight has emerged as the leading indicator of infant health and welfare and the central focus of infant health policy this is because low birth weight lbw infants experience severe health and developmental difficulties that can impose enormous costs on society but would the prevention of lbw generate equally sizable cost savings and health improvements estimates of the return to lbwprevention from cross sectional associations may be biased by omitted variables that cannot be influenced by policy such as genetic factors to address this we compare the hospital costs health at birth and infant mortality rates between heavier and lighter infants from all twin pairs born in the united states we also examine the effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy the leading risk factor for lbw in the united states on health among singleton births after controlling for detailed background characteristics both analyses imply substantially smaller effects of lbw than previously thought suggesting two possibilities 1 existing estimates overstate the true costs and consequences of lbw by at least a factor of four and by as much as a factor of 20 or 2 different lbw preventing interventions have different health and cost consequences implying that policy efforts that presume a single return to reducing lbw will necessarily be suboptimal

the economic impacts of climate change evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather fisher et al 2012 hereafter fhrs have uncovered coding and data errors in our paper deschenes and greenstone 2007 hereafter dg we acknowledge and are embarrassed by these mistakes we are grateful to fhrs for uncovering them we hope that this reply will also contribute to advancing the literature on the vital question of the impact of climate change on the us agricultural sector fhrs main critiques of dg are as follows i there are errors in the weather data and climate change projections used by dg ii the climate change projections are based on the hadley 2 model and scenarios rather than the more recent hadley 3 model and scenarios iii standard errors are biased due to spatial correlation iv the inclusion of state by year fixed effects does not leave enough weather variation to obtain meaningful estimates of the relationship between agriculture profits and weather v storage and inventory adjustment in response to yield shocks invalidate the use of annual profit data and vi fhrs argue that a better specified hedonic model produces robust estimates unlike the results reported in dg four of these critiques have little basis and we respond to them here in the introduction specifically with respect to ii the more recent daily climate predictions were not available when we wrote dg nevertheless the most important issue is providing the reliable estimates of climate change and in this note we report estimates based on the climate model we used in dg and a more recent one that we gained access to in the meantime iii in the primary table on agricultural profits dg reports two sets of standard errors with the first clustered at the county level and the second based on a variance covariance matrix that accounts for spatial correlation using the method proposed in conley 1999 thus the claim of fhrs 2012 seems overblown nevertheless to ease comparisons of papers in this literature this note will adopt the fhrs convention of reporting estimated standard errors clustered at the county and state levels we find that inference is largely unaffected by the choice between these different assumptions about the variance covariance matrix

hours of work labor productivity and environmental conditions a case study l ivelihood measures of foregone and compensating earnings are frequently used as measures of economic losses due to realized or potential damages to the health of labor inputs both measures as they have been used are incomplete though for quite different reasons the narrowness of the foregone earnings measure is widely acknowledged as set forth in smith 1974 thaler and rosen 1976 and viscusi 1979 the compensating earnings measure with its emphasis upon the earnings premia workers require to be willing to be exposed to job hazards they perceive certainly has broader analytical appeal however as empirically implemented these studies too are incomplete they deal with worker and time aggregates allowing only crude measures of differences in reward structures mixes of complementary inputs work day lengths risk aversions worker effort and other dissimilar factors across individuals firms and industries in this paper the productivity changes and consequent earnings adjustments that occur under differing work conditions for 17 individual citrus pickers in southern california are assessed interest is centered upon the acute effects of two environmental factors ambient ozone 03 and ambient temperature upon the daily work performances of these individuals 2 since each individual is separately analyzed the host of plausible confounding influences e g experience biological endowments health histories etc to which one must devote attention when dealing with the fictional representative individual are relevant here only insofar as they change within the short time periods being considered

the impact of new drugs on us longevity and medical expenditure 1990 2003 evidence from longitudinal disease level data a number of econometric studies charles r hulten 1992 byong hong bahk and michael gort 1993 plutarchos sakellaris and daniel j wilson 2004 have investigated the hypothesis that capital equipment employed by us manufacturing firms embodies technological change i e that each successive vintage of investment is more productive than the last equipment is expected to embody significant technical progress due to the relatively high research and development r d intensity of equipment manufacturers the method that has been used to test the equipment embodied technical change hypothesis is to estimate manufacturing production functions including mean vintage of equipment as well as quantities of capital and labor these studies have concluded that technical progress embodied in equipment is a major source of manufacturing productivity growth embodied technical progress may also be an important source of economic growth in healthcare one important input in the production of health pharmaceuticals is even more r d intensive than equipment according to the national science foundation nsf the r d intensity of drugs and medicine manufacturing is 74 percent higher than the r d intensity of machinery and equipment manufacturing therefore it is quite plausible that there is also a high rate of pharmaceutical embodied technical progress this study examines the effect of changes in the vintage distribution of prescription drugs on us longevity and medical expenditure during the 1990 2003 period we will estimate the following model using longitudinal disease level data

black white wage inequality employment rates and incarceration the observed gap in average wages between black men and white men inadequately reflects the relative economic standing of blacks who suffer from a high rate of joblessness the authors estimate the black white gap in hourly wages from 1980 to 1999 adjusting for the sample selection effect of labor inactivity among working age men in 1999 accounting for labor inactivity including prison and jail incarceration leads to an increase of 7 20 in the black white wage gap adjusting for sample selectivity among men ages 22 30 in 1999 increases the wage gap by as much as 58 increasing selection bias which can be attributed to incarceration and conventional joblessness explains about two thirds of the rise in black relative wages among young men between 1985 and 1998 apparent improvement in the economic position of young black men is thus largely an artifact of rising joblessness fueled by the growth in incarceration during the 1990s

from the cradle to the labor market the effect of birth weight on adult outcomes lower birth weight babies have worse outcomes both short run in terms of one year mortality rates and longer run in terms of educational attainment and earnings however recent research has called into question whether birth weight itself is important or whether it simply reflects other hard to measure characteristics by applying within twin techniques using an unusually rich dataset from norway we examine the effects of birth weight on both short run and long run outcomes for the same cohorts we find that birth weight does matter despite short run twin fixed effects estimates that are much smaller than ols estimates the effects on longer run outcomes such as adult height iq earnings and education are significant and similar in magnitude to ols estimates

the determinants of mortality mortality rates have fallen dramatically over time starting in a few countries in the 18th century and continuing to fall today in just the past century life expectancy has increased by over 30 years at the same time mortality rates remain much higher in poor countries with a difference in life expectancy between rich and poor countries of also about 30 years this difference persists despite the remarkable progress in health improvement in the last half century at least until the hiv aids pandemic in both the time series and the cross section data there is a strong correlation between income per capita and mortality rates a correlation that also exists within countries where richer better educated people live longer we review the determinants of these patterns over history over countries and across groups within countries while there is no consensus about the causal mechanisms we tentatively identify the application of scientific advance and technical progress some of which is induced by income and facilitated by education as the ultimate determinant of health such an explanation allows a consistent interpretation of the historical cross country and within country evidence we downplay direct causal mechanisms running from income to health

social status and economic performance a survey abstract this survey combines ideas and results from sociology and economics recognizing that economic decisions are often shaped by social concerns and influences based on the sociological literature we define social status and describe its measurement we then describe the role of social status in economic analysis of saving and consumption wages and economic growth we review recent work on status determination in equilibrium including evolutionary models we conclude with some remarks on the need for further interaction between sociology and economics

early life health interventions and academic achievement this paper studies the effect of improved early life health care on mortality and long run academic achievement in school we use the idea that medical treatments often follow rules of thumb for assigning care to patients such as the classification of very low birth weight vlbw which assigns infants special care at a specific birth weight cutoff using detailed administrative data on schooling and birth records from chile and norway we establish that children who receive extra medical care at birth have lower mortality rates and higher test scores and grades in school these gains are in the order of 0 15 0 22 standard deviations

do stronger age discrimination laws make social security reforms more effective supply side social security reforms to increase employment and delay benefit claiming among older individuals may be frustrated by age discrimination we test for policy complementarities between supply side social security reforms and demand side efforts to deter age discrimination specifically studying whether stronger state level age discrimination protections enhanced the impact of the increases in the social security full retirement age fra that occurred in the past decade the evidence indicates that for older individuals who were caught by the increase in the fra benefit claiming reductions and employment increases were sharper in states with stronger age discrimination protections

estimating the effects of climate shocks on collective violence ardl evidence from india this paper examines the causal relationship between climate shocks and collective violence in india using annual data over the period 1954 2006 we use the ardl bounds testing approach to deal with

arsenic mitigation in bangladesh a household labor market approach rural families in bangladesh one of the poorest countries in the world face financial risks from major illness both from the cost of medical care and from the loss of income associated with reduced labor supply and productivity chronic exposure to arsenic in drinking water has often been associated with the development of skin cancers and internal cancers especially of the bladder liver and lungs and a wide variety of other health conditions such as diabetes respiratory problems cardiovascular diseases hyperpigmentation hypopigmentation and keratosis a condition in which painful nodules grow on the palms of the hands and soles of the feet most of the economic work on arsenic contamination in bangladesh has had an epidemiological focus that has tried to effectively monetize a dose response relation using either a cost of illness or a willingness to pay approach

weather shocks agriculture and crime evidence from india we use detailed crime agriculture and weather data from india during the years 1971 2000 to conduct a systematic analysis of the relationship between weather shocks and multiple categories of crime we find that drought and heat exert a strong impact on virtually all types of crimes that the impact on property crimes is larger than for violent crimes and that this relationship has been relatively stable over three decades of economic development we then use seasonal and geographical disaggregations of weather and agricultural cultivation to examine the prevailing hypothesis that agricultural income shocks drive the weather crime relationship in developing countries the patterns we find are consistent with this hypothesis in the case of rainfall shocks but suggest additional mechanisms may play an important role in driving the heat crime relationship consistent with evidence from industrialized countries

can access to health care mitigate the effects of temperature on mortality abstract understanding the sources of heterogeneity in the health effects of environmental exposure is critical for optimal policy design differential access to health care is commonly cited as a potential source of such heterogeneity we test this hypothesis in a causal framework by combining random year to year fluctuations in local temperatures with variation in access to primary care services resulting from the idiosyncratic roll out of community health centers chcs across us counties in the 1960s and 1970s we find that the improved access to primary care services provided by chcs moderates the heat mortality relationship by 14 2 but we find little evidence that chc access mitigates the harmful effects of cold in a supplementary analysis we find evidence that acute care in contrast to primary care may be especially effective at mitigating the cold mortality relationship our results suggest that differential access to health care does contribute to observed heterogeneity in environmental health damages and that improving access to primary care may be a useful means of mitigating harm from a warming climate

fetal exposures to toxic releases and infant health every year millions of pounds of toxic chemicals thought to be linked to developmental problems in fetuses and young children are released into the air in this paper we estimate the effect of these releases on the health of newborns using data from the toxic release inventory program and vital statistics natality and mortality files we find significant negative effects of prenatal exposure to toxicants on gestation and birth weight we also find that several developmental chemicals increase the probability of infant death the effect is quite sizeable the reported reductions in cadmium toluene and epichlorohydrin releases during the 90s could account for about 3 9 percent of the overall decrease in infant mortality our results are robust to several specification checks such as comparing developmental to non developmental chemicals and fugitive air releases to stack air releases

the costs of wrongful discharge laws we estimate the effects on employment and wages of wrongful discharge protections adopted by u s state courts during the last three decades we find robust evidence that one wrongful discharge doctrine the implied contract exception reduced state employment rates by 0 8 to 1 7 the initial impact is largest for female and less educated workers those who change jobs frequently while the longer term effect is greater for older and more educated workers those most likely to litigate by contrast we find no robust employment or wage effects of two other widely recognized wrongful discharge laws the public policy and good faith exceptions i introduction w hat is the price of protection this paper estimates the social costs in possibly lower employment and wages of common law protections designed to protect american workers from wrongful discharge economic the ory suggests that employment protection is a double edged sword it provides employment security to incumbent work ers but makes employers reluctant to hire leading to a less flexible labor market with potentially lower employment and wages it is frequently argued that the stagnant employment performance of many european economies during the 1980s and 1990s eurosclerosis can be attributed in part to the significant employment protection given european workers see lazear 1990 and blanchard and wolfers 1999 krueger and pischke 1998 provide a contrasting view among the obstacles to testing this hypothesis is the difficulty of making reliable inferences using cross country comparisons in this paper we study the effects of employment protec tion in the united states numerous scholars have examined the effects of american federal employment laws on em ployment and unemployment acemoglu and angrist 2001 deleire 2000 and jolls and prescott 2004 present evidence that the americans with disabilities act ada decreased employment of disabled persons oyer and schaefer 2000 2002 conclude that the federal civil rights act of 1991 increased the frequency of mass layoffs and raised the returns to experience for workers who have a downward sloping age litigation profile hahn todd and van der klaauw 2001 also evaluate the costs of federal antidiscrimination laws a major hurdle for each of these studies is that these federal statutes apply all at once to the entire country this makes it difficult to separate the effects of the statute from all other changes occurring simulta neously cf donohue 1998 donohue and heckman

affirmative action and labor markets affirmative action remains controversial the controversy extends from the original antidiscrimination legislation and its interpretation to estimates of affirmative action s effect on the labor market this paper provides a progress report on our recent efforts at detecting the effects of affirmative action on minority wages and employment although we find a substantial increase in wages for black men and black women over our sample period the timing of these wage changes is surprising most of the wage gains came prior to 1974 before the establishment of an effective monitoring structure for affirmative action indeed when the powers of the eeoc and ofcc are greatest the wage effects for young blacks are somewhat perverse using eeo 1 reports we find a major shift in black employment toward firms most vulnerable to the monitoring and potential sanctions of the affirmative action programs as with wages the shift in minority employment came prior to the expansion of the powers and budgets of the ee

the impact of federal civil rights policy on black economic progress evidence from the equal employment opportunity act of 1972 the equal employment opportunity act eeoa of 1972 extended civil rights coverage to employers with 15 24 employees while leaving unaffected the civil rights protection for employees of larger firms in conjunction with pre existing state fair employment practice fep laws the eeoa provides a natural experiment in which the treatment and control groups are defined by differences across industries in the fraction of workers employed in the newly covered establishments and across states in the scope of the fep laws applying the treatment and control group methodology to current population survey data the author finds that there were large shifts in the employment and pay practices of the industries most affected by the amendment the timing of the relative gains and their concentration by industry and region provide evidence that the eeoa had a positive impact on the labor market status of african americans

growth and violence argument for a per capita measure of civil war the economics literature typically uses counts of casualties as a measure of conflict intensity despite the fact that the units of observation vary considerably in population size when analysing the impact of conflict on economic growth the use of counts relies on the assumption that a given number of casualties affects large and small populations in the same way using within and between country evidence this paper demonstrates that this standard assumption can be rejected a per capita model of conflict intensity that captures local effects of violence provides a more consistent empirical framework for both between country and within country studies

health insurance and the demand for medical care evidence from a randomized experiment we estimate how cost sharing the portion of the bill the patient pays affects the demand for medical services the data come from a randomized experiment a catastrophic insurance plan reduces expenditures 31 percent relative to zero out of pocket price the price elasticity is approximately 0 2 we reject the hypothesis that less favorable coverage of outpatient services increases total expenditure for example by deterring preventive care or inducing hospitalization

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

does medicare save lives health insurance characteristics shift at age 65 as most people become eligible for medicare we measure the impacts of these changes on patients who are admitted to hospitals through emergency departments for conditions with similar admission rates on weekdays and weekends the age profiles of admissions and comorbidities for these patients are smooth at age 65 suggesting that the severity of illness is similar on either side of the medicare threshold in contrast the number of procedures performed in hospitals and total list charges exhibit small but statistically significant discontinuities implying that patients over 65 receive more services we estimate a nearly 1 percentage point drop in 7 day mortality for patients at age 65 equivalent to a 20 reduction in deaths for this severely ill patient group the mortality gap persists for at least 9 months after admission

carbon pricing technology transition and skill based development abstract we analyze the impact of carbon prices on human capital accumulation sectoral change and economic growth in our framework output is produced with dirty and or clean technologies using skilled and unskilled labor as inputs carbon policy affects technology selection which transmits incentives for human capital formation we show that a temporary policy may be sufficient for a transition to a clean economy and that such a policy also stimulates economic growth moreover in the presence of inter country knowledge spillovers a carbon policy in the north helps human capital formation in the south and induces south s transition to the clean steady state

dynamic asset pricing in a system of local housing markets for most people buying a house is one of the most significant investment decisions of their lifetimes economists have mainly focused on the consumption aspects of this process for example a typical model in urban economics might frame the decision of where to live as a discrete choice over a bundle of housing and neighborhood attributes such as location square footage schooling options and crime levels the investment side of the problem has received considerably less atten tion a surprising omission since housing assets constitute approximately two thirds of the aver age american household s financial portfolio serve an important role in saving for retirement and as has become increasingly apparent can be quite risky this paper views housing markets from an asset pricing perspective using finance theory to relate the risk premium of a housing asset the difference between its expected return and the return for a risk free investment to its exposure to risk as usual in finance what matters for the risk premium of a housing asset is its exposure to systematic risk not idiosyncratic risk in our model there are two forms of systematic risk to which housing assets are exposed national risk which is common to houses everywhere and local risk which affects all houses within a given metropolitan area but nowhere else houses are said to be of the same type h if they are located in the same metropolitan area and have the same exposure to systematic risk our main conclusions are that 1 houses of every type face a common set of risk prices for the national risk and m for the local risk specific to

social rewards externalities and stable preferences this paper examines the role of social rewards as a corrective mechanism for activities which generate externalities the focus of this paper is on the circumstances under which social rewards provide effective and feasible incentive mechanism that may replace laws and regulations in particular social mechanism is effective only in a society in which individuals who care about their standing in the society can survive in the long run we show that the nature of economic interaction between matched players influences whether the socially minded individuals survive in the long run and restricts the effectiveness of social rewards however circumstances exist where the socially minded survive even though relative fitness is determined only by economic payoff 1998 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

inequality at birth some causes and consequences recent research shows that health at birth is affected by many factors including maternal education behaviors and participation in social programs in turn endowments at birth are predictive of adult outcomes and of the outcomes of future generations exposure to environmental pollution is one potential determinant of health at birth that has received increasing attention a large literature outside of economics advocates for environmental justice and argues that poor and minority families are disproportionately exposed to environmental hazards i provide new evidence on this question showing that children born to less educated and minority mothers are more likely to be exposed to pollution in utero and that white college educated mothers are particularly responsive to changes in environmental amenities i estimate that differences in exposure to toxic releases may explain 6 of the gap in incidence of low birth weight between infants of white college educated mothers and infants of black high school dropout mothers this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

averting expenditure and the cost of pollution the paper considers the relationship between the willingness to pay for environmental quality and averting expenditures that is the costs of measures undertaken in efforts to counteract the consequences of pollution the models used assume perfect mobility among locations with different levels of environmental quality the major results are i averting expenditures are not in general a good measure of willingness to pay 2 averting expenditures are not always even a lower bound on willingness to pay 3 even when averting expenditures are a lower bound the difference between the level of such expenditures and willingness to pay carmot be attributed to the unavertible aesthetic consequences of pollution for almost every kind of environmental unpleasantness we face there are averting expenditures we can make to reduce and sometimes completely remove the damage for air pollution house paint air conditioners soap for water pollution wells bottled water purifiers for noise pollution storm windows thicker walls economists have long been aware that averting behavior is both possible and practiced and they have often suggested that expenditures on such behavior can be used as a measure of the costs imposed on society by various forms of pollution the literature on this subject is difficult to characterize but to the extent that a consensus has been reached it is that averting expenditures provide a lower bound estimate of the total costs imposed by pollution and the divergence between averting expenditures and the total costs of pollution arises from the fact that some consequences of pollution e g the simple unpleasantness of breathing dirty air cannot be averted 2 3 in this note we develop two simple models of the response of utility maximizing consumers to small changes in the level of pollution which they face in the first model we assume that environmental quality is desired solely because it reduces the need for averting expenditure we show that 1 the level of averting expenditure may be either a lower bound or an upper bound estimate of the consumer s

does air pollution aggravate income inequality in china an empirical analysis based on the view of health abstract given the rapid development of the chinese economy especially its accelerated urbanization air pollution and income inequality as two of the most important global issues have also become hot topics in china however limited attention has been devoted to understanding their joint evolution in the literature in this study we thus investigate the relationship between them using a multi level nested data model which enables us to estimate the long run distribution effect of air pollution on individuals of different socioeconomic statuses based on china s city level pm2 5 emissions and individual level income we further examine the mechanisms behind the evolution using a 3sls model the estimation results reveal that the increase in air pollution concentration has short term positive production effects and long term negative impacts on individual income and will exacerbate the income inequality across socioeconomic statuses individuals of lower socioeconomic status have disadvantages in achieving efficient avoiding knowledge and measures the results of 3sls model confirm the existence of the health channel through which air pollution exerts influence on income inequality these results provide a roadmap for policymakers first a comprehensive assessment of the health burden distribution from air pollution on individuals of different socioeconomic statuses should be considered for environmental policymaking second the regional disparities and differences among income groups should also be considered during this process third equal access to basic public services should be the primary target of environmental regulations moreover compensation and assistance for the health issues caused by environmental pollution could be an important supplement to these regulations future study could do further analysis of the specific level of health burden due to different types of pollutants and their relationship with income inequality

the oregon health insurance experiment evidence from the first year in 2008 a group of uninsured low income adults in oregon was selected by lottery to be given the chance to apply for medicaid this lottery provides an opportunity to gauge the effects of expanding access to public health insurance on the health care use financial strain and health of low income adults using a randomized controlled design in the year after random assignment the treatment group selected by the lottery was about 25 percentage points more likely to have insurance than the control group that was not selected we find that in this first year the treatment group had substantively and statistically significantly higher health care utilization including primary and preventive care as well as hospitalizations lower out of pocket medical expenditures and medical debt including fewer bills sent to collection and better self reported physical and mental health than the control group

determining the impact of federal antidiscrimination policy on the economic status of blacks a study of south carolina this paper evaluates alternative explanations for the dramatic increase in black employment in south carolina manufacturing that occurred in the mid 1960s black progress in traditionally segregated sectors of manufacturing in operation at the time jim crow laws were passed cannot be attributed to tight labor markets the decline of agriculture or the growth of education of the black workforce the only plausible explanation is federal government civil rights and affirmative action policy for newer industries that entered the state on a large scale after world war ii the growth of skills among blacks accounts for black economic progress copyright 1989 by american economic association

a review of the age of sustainable development by jeffrey sachs how does economic science inform the study of sustainable development in his new book jeffrey d sachs analyzes the challenges of achieving economic growth while protecting the environment and achieving an equitable distribution of resources this review presents an overview of this ambitious book with special emphasis on the role of the objectives of local and national leaders and their incentives to pursue the sustainability agenda given the huge migration to cities now playing out in the developing world special attention is paid to the role of urbanization as a cause of sustainability opportunities and challenges

demand for environmental quality information and household response evidence from well water arsenic testing access to information about environmental quality may facilitate low cost preventive measures that protect human health in this paper we study the demand for information about environmental quality and the behavioral response to the information provided with a field experiment conducted in bihar india we estimate the price sensitivity of demand for diagnostic testing of drinking water wells for arsenic of natural origin a serious threat to the health of tens of millions of villagers across south and southeast asia demand is substantial but sensitive to price uptake falls from 68 to 31 of households over our price range rs 10 to rs 50 we further assess how households respond to information regarding the contamination level in their wells about one third of households with unsafe wells switch to a safer water source finally we demonstrate that households that received adverse test outcomes are more likely to selectively forget test results and proactively remove evidence of their wells arsenic status

health nutrition and economic development the relationship between health and economic development is explored focusing on nutrition based health indicators the spotlight is placed on the inter related feedbacks between the influence of health on productivity on one hand and the influence of income on health status on the other disentangling causality in these relationships has preoccupied much of the literature we evaluate different empirical strategies that have been adopted and assess the results there is now a body of evidence based on careful empirical studies that demonstrates a causal relationship between health and labor productivity there is also evidence that at least among the very poor additional income is spent on improved nutrition there are two issues that have received little attention although we argue they are likely to be very important first measurement of health is discussed in detail evidence is presented on how taking into account differences in the extent of measurement error is critical for interpreting the impact of health on wages the same theme emerges in studies of the effect of income on health specifically calorie intake the key role of non linearities in these relationships is highlighted and we demonstrate that a good deal of the variation in estimates of income elasticities of demand for calories can be ascribed to the role of measurement and functional form authors

black white earnings ratios since the civil rights act of 1964 the importance of labor market dropouts published median earnings of wage and salary workers by race and sex are based on distributions that exclude those without earnings and those not employed as wage and salary workers at the time of the survey it has been argued that the changing importance of these exclusions rather than any improvement in the distribution of offered wages for blacks accounts for the apparent increase in black white relative median earnings this paper presents a new method for correcting the published medians for such censoring the apparent improvement in relative earnings is reduced but not eliminated by the correction

implications of an economic theory of conflict hindu muslim violence in india we model intergroup conflict driven by economic changes within groups we show that if group incomes are low increasing group incomes raises violence against that group and lowers violence generated by it we then apply the model to data on hindu muslim violence in india our main result is that an increase in per capita muslim expenditures generates a large and significant increase in future religious conflict an increase in hindu expenditures has a negative or no effect these findings speak to the origins of hindu muslim violence in post independence india

risk financial markets and human capital in a developing country this paper explores the link between financial market incompleteness and human capital accumulation we examine how child school attendance responds to seasonal fluctuations in the income of agrarian households using panel data from rural india to pinpoint market imperfections we study responses to aggregate and idiosyncratic as well as to anticipated and unanticipated income shocks our main finding is that seasonal fluctuations in school attendance are a form of self insurance but one which does not result in a substantial loss of human capital on average

black men s relative earnings are the gains illusory this study investigates the hypothesis that the increase in the median earnings of black men relative to those of white men after 1964 in the united states largely reflects the labor force withdrawal of high proportions of low wage black men who availed themselves of government transfers analyzing current population survey and social security administration data through 1985 the author finds little empirical support for three direct implications of the sample censoring hypothesis of the total measured gain in relative earnings between 1964 and 1985 from 531 to 663 or 13 2 percentage points he finds that only 14 or 1 8 percentage points can be attributed to sample selection

the economics of water scarcity and variability does the availability or variability of water matter for the economy does it meaningfully impact the growth and development trajectory of a country it may seem surprising that answers to these most basic of questions remain elusive the aim of this paper is to summarize recent work on the economic impacts of water scarcity and variability the paper finds that there is strong evidence that variations in rainfall and water availability have significant impacts on particular sectors such as agriculture human capital and even conflict but paradoxically evidence of impacts on economic growth and other measures of aggregate economic activity remains ambiguous the paper explains reasons for this anomaly and explores the pathways through which water impacts the economy the paper provides a synthesis of key developments in the literature identifies methodological gaps and suggests policy solutions

water quality violations and avoidance behavior evidence from bottled water consumption we examine the impact of poor water quality on avoidance behavior by estimating the change in bottled water purchases in response to drinking water violations using data from a national grocery chain matched with water quality violations we find an increase in bottled water sales of 22 percent from violations due to microorganisms and 17 percent from violations due to elements and chemicals back of the envelope calculations yield costs of avoidance behavior at roughly 60 million for all nationwide violations in 2005 which likely reflects a significant understatement of the total willingness to pay to eliminate violations

selling labor low wage responses to productivity shocks in developing countries productivity risk is pervasive in underdeveloped countries this paper highlights a way in which underdevelopment exacerbates productivity risk productivity shocks cause larger changes in the wage when workers are poorer less able to migrate and more credit constrained because of such workers inelastic labor supply this equilibrium wage effect hurts workers in contrast it acts as insurance for landowners agricultural wage data for 257 districts in india for 1956 87 are used to test the predictions with rainfall as an instrument for agricultural productivity in districts with fewer banks or higher migration costs the wage is much more responsive to fluctuations in productivity

interpreting the beveridge curve an agent based approach abstract we construct an agent based computational model of the labour market with heterogeneous workers and firms to study the behaviour of the beveridge curve along the business cycle in this framework search frictions arise because filling a vacancy is a costly activity that takes time whereas productivity mismatch comes from firms imperfect information about the value of the workers before the job interview takes place the model offers an interpretation for the outward movement exhibited by the u s beveridge curve since the last months of 2009 sectoral misallocation plays a role moreover when the speed of recovery from a recession is not uniform across sectors unemployed workers are less selective in their application strategy and firms must spend more time in choosing the best match unemployment remains high in spite of an increase in the number of vacancies

endowments and the allocation of schooling in the family and in the marriage market the twins experiment 03 we show how comparisons between the within twin correlations of human capital outcomes across identical and nonidentical twins can be used to identify the variability in the individual specific component of endowments and the responsiveness of schooling to individual specific endowments in the family and in the marriage market even when schooling is measured with error estimates from two twins samples indicate that 27 42 percent of the variance in log earnings obesity is due to variability in individual specific endowments allocations of schooling reinforce specific endowments and individual specific earnings endowments of men and their wives schooling are negatively associated

racial prejudice and labour market penalties during economic downturns do economic downturns encourage racist attitudes does this in turn lead to worse labour market outcome for minorities we assess these important questions using british attitude and labour force data the attitude data show that racial prejudice is countercyclical with the effect driven by large increases for high skilled middle aged working men a 1 point increase in unemployment is estimated to increase self reported racial prejudice by 4 points correspondingly the labour force data show that racial employment and wage gaps are counter cyclical with the largest effects also observed for high skilled men especially in the manufacturing and construction industries a 1 point increase in unemployment is estimated to increase the wage gap by 3 these results are entirely consistent with the theoretical literature which proposes that racial prejudice and discrimination are the result of labour market competition among individuals with similar traits and that the effects of this competition are exacerbated during periods of economic downturn

the labor market impact of state level anti discrimination laws 1940 1960 by the time congress passed the 1964 civil rights act 98 of non southern blacks 40 of all blacks already resided in states with fair employment laws prohibiting labor market discrimination using census data from the integrated public use microdata series the author assesses the impact of fair employment legislation on black workers relative income unemployment labor force participation migration and occupational and industrial distributions in general the fair employment laws adopted in the 1940s appear to have had larger effects than those adopted in the 1950s and the laws had considerably smaller effects on the labor market outcomes of black men than on those of black women

satellites self reports and submersion exposure to floods in bangladesh abstract a burgeoning climate economy literature has uncovered many effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on economic activity but has made considerably less progress in modeling the effects of other associated phenomena like natural disasters we develop new objective data on floods focusing on bangladesh we show that rainfall and self reported exposure are weak proxies for true flood exposure these data allow us to study adaptation giving accurate measures of both long term averages and short term variation in exposure this is important in studying climate change impacts as people will not only experience new exposures but also experience them differently

a new era of pollution progress in urban china abstract over the last 30 years china s economy has boomed this trend has lifted hundreds of millions of chinese out of poverty but it has also sharply increased local regional and global pollu

crop diversification and child health empirical evidence from tanzania malnutrition is recognized as a major issue among low income households in developing countries with long term implications for economic development recently crop diversification has been considered as a strategy to improve nutrition and health however there is no systematic empirical evidence on the role played by crop diversification in improving human health we use three waves of the tanzania national panel survey to test the effect of crop diversification on child health we implement two instrumental variable approaches and perform several robustness checks to address potential endogeneity concerns we find a positive but small effect of an increase in crop diversification on child height for age z score through greater dietary diversity the effect is larger for subsistence households and children living in households with limited market access