the allocation and effectiveness of china s r d subsidies evidence from listed firms abstract in this study we investigate the allocation of china s r d subsidies and their effectiveness in stimulating business r d investments for the population of chinese listed firms between 2001 and 2006 with respect to subsidy allocation we find that firm selection is mainly determined by prior grants high quality inventions and minority state ownership market oriented provincial governments distribute grants less frequently and firms located in developed provinces receive grants more often considering effectiveness r d subsidies instantaneously crowd out business r d investment but are neutral in later periods in 2006 one public rmb reduces business r d investments by half an rmb however crowding out is not prevalent for repeated recipients of r d subsidies high tech firms and minority state owned firms

meta analysis in model implementation choice sets and the valuation of air quality improvements this research illustrates how the methods developed for meta analysis can serve to document and summarize voluminous information derived from repeated sensitivity analyses our application is to the sensitivity of welfare estimates derived from discrete choice models to assumptions about the choice set these assumptions affect welfare estimates through both the estimated parameters of the model and conditional on the parameters the substitution among alternatives in our specific application the evaluation is in terms of estimated benefits of air quality improvements in los angeles based on discrete choices of neighborhood and housing copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

possibilities for including the opportunity cost of time in recreation demand systems recreation demand modelers have attempted to identify and incorporate the opportunity cost of an individual s time in travel and on site in the model larson 1993b focused on the value of leisure time in a model where individuals face a fixed work week in this paper we examine the connection between labor supply and recreation demands and focus on conditional demand systems we illustrate that corner solution models are not needed to explain several interesting time related recreation issues

measuring the impact of water supply interruptions on household welfare water scarcity frequently leads to a need for rationing the choice of an adequate rationing method should be based on the impact on consumer welfare that is produced by each rationing plan some rationing schemes such as the frequently used supply interruption method can be regarded as changes in the characteristics of the good in this case time availability that do not modify the pre set consumer budget under the standard theoretical restrictions on consumer behavior compensating or equivalent variations surpluses cannot be used to identify the impacts of these methods on household welfare in this paper we propose a set of sufficient conditions with respect to the utility function that allows for the evaluation of the compensating or equivalent variations surpluses associated with changes in goods quality even if those goods are considered to be essential for consumers we use these conditions to compare the welfare losses associated with the water supply cuts implemented in seville spain to those that would result if water was instead rationed using price changes

the opportunity cost of travel time in recreation demand models deciding how to allocate forage among animals is a fundamentally important process in range management the wisdom of these decisions can be enhanced by estimating the marginal value of forage needed by competing species we present a method for

modeling recreation demand in a poisson system of equations an analysis of the impact of international exchange rates we extend count data travel cost modeling by developing a utility theoretic system of semilogarithmic recreation demand equations the restrictions required to make the system utility theoretic are applied during estimation the model is applied to individual wilderness recreation trips in a system of four canadian wilderness parks the resulting demand system is used to examine the impacts of changing u s canadian currency exchange rates on participation and welfare of u s recreationists

estimation and welfare analysis with large demand systems we develop an approach for estimating individual or household level preferences for a large set of quality differentiated goods and for constructing hicksian welfare measures within the demand system framework our approach uses a maximum simulated likelihood procedure to recover estimates of the structural parameters and a multistage monte carlo markov chain algorithm for constructing hicksian consumer surplus estimates we illustrate our approach with a recreation dataset consisting of day trips to 62 mid atlantic beaches

modelling the effect of chronic wasting disease on recreational hunting site choice preferences and choice set formation over time chronic wasting disease cwd is a prion disease that affects deer elk and other cervid wildlife species although there is no known link between the consumption of cwd affected meat and human health hunters are advised to have animals from cwd affected areas tested and are advised against consuming meat from cwd infected animals government of alberta 2010 we model hunter response to the knowledge that deer in a wildlife management unit have been found to have cwd in alberta canada we examine hunter site choice over two hunting seasons using revealed and stated preference data in models that incorporate preferences choice set formation and scale we compare a fully endogenous choice set model using the independent availability logit model swait in probabilistic choice set formation in transportation demand models dissertation mit 1984 with the availability function approach cascetta and papola in transp res c 9 4 249 263 2001 that approximates choice set formation we find that cwd incidence affects choice set formation and preferences and that ignoring choice set formation would result in biased estimates of impact and welfare measures this study contributes to the broader recreation demand literature by incorporating choice set formation scale and temporal impacts into a random utility model of recreation demand

choice set formation for outdoor destinations the role of motivations and preference discrimination in site selection for the management of public expenditures on protected areas effective public expenditure currently dominates the management focus of many protected areas this calls for explicit modeling of constraints and motivations that respectively obstruct and stimulate visits to selected outdoor destinations choice set formation is the result of screening and or inclusion of specific sites alternatives to form the set of sites considered in real choices evidence shows that the omission of a structural representation of choice set formation is harmful to econometric inference yet the literature has largely ignored the underlying behavioral phenomenon we show using a discrete choice experiment involving selection among seven recreational sites in an italian national park that choice set formation is behaviorally relevant even after controlling for preference discrimination motivations why visit are important determinants of preliminary site screening for choice set inclusion as well as site selection justifying the additional value of such modeling extension

count data models and the problem of zeros in recreation demand analysis in this paper we develop a count data model for consumer demand which explicitly allows for a large number of zero observations for the dependent variable and separation of the participation versus quantity decisions the advantages of the model over traditional censored and count demand models are brought out and the appropriate consumer surplus measures are derived by introducing a random error term into the traditional count model demand function the appropriate measure of expected consumer surplus for count models is derived the model is illustrated using a recreational survey of the general population

federalism as a commitment to reserving market incentives the authors advance a new perspective in the study of federalism their approach views federalism as a governance solution of the state to credibly preserving market incentives market incentives are preserved if the state is credibly prevented from compromising on future economic success and from bailing out future failures the salient features of federalism decentralization of information and authority and interjurisdictional competition help provide credible commitment or these purposes in addition the authors suggest that some federalism are self sustaining

mating competition and entrepreneurship abstract we used a natural experiment in taiwan to test whether mating competition is a major motive for entrepreneurship after being defeated in mainland china more than half million solders retreated to taiwan in 1949 the soldiers were not allowed to get married until the military marriage ban was lifted in 1959 the policy change created a severe marriage squeeze for local men triggering their animal spirits to engage in entrepreneurial activities empirical results show that local men exposed to high sex ratios as a result of the removal of the marriage ban were more likely to become entrepreneurs later on

the effect of consumers real world choice sets on inferences from stated preference surveys for stated preference sp studies we develop a model that assesses the influence of choice set misspecification arising from the omission of perceived substitutes among real world alternatives in the same class of goods this problem is most likely to be present when individuals are allowed to select a no purchase option instead of being forced to choose from an explicit set of sp alternatives with hypothetical attribute levels a convenient feature of our model is that researchers do not need to know exactly which omitted real substitute the individual most prefers only the set of real substitutes that exists in our empirical illustration a comparison of rival models suggests researchers who overlook the presence of perceived real alternatives related to an sp experiment can end up with noticeably biased welfare estimates our more general model suggests that it may be prudent for future sp researchers to anticipate then test and possibly correct for distortions in utility parameter estimates that result from this problem

latent consideration sets and continuous demand systems this paper develops a theoretically consistent continuous demand system model that incorporates latent probabilistic consideration sets in contrast to existing discrete choice consideration models the proposed model is econometrically tractable with consumption data for many goods the model s empirical properties are illustrated with an 89 site recreation data set from the 1994 national survey of recreation and the environment nsre parameter and welfare estimates suggest that the latent consideration set models fit the data better and may imply a bias variance tradeoff relative to traditional models

estimation and welfare calculations in a generalized corner solution model with an application to recreation demand the kuhn tucker model of wales and woodland 1983 provides a utility theoretic framework for estimating preferences over commodities for which individuals choose not to consume one or more of the goods due to the complexity of the model however there have been few applications in the literature and little attention has been paid to the problems of welfare analysis within the kuhn tucker framework this paper provides an application of the model to the problem of recreation demand in addition we develop and apply a methodology for estimating compensating variation relying on monte carlo integration to derive expected welfare changes

rural reforms and agricultural growth in china this paper employs province level panel data to assess the contributions of decollectivization price adjustments and other reforms to china s agricultural growth in the reform period decollectivization is found to improve total factor productivity and to account for about half of the output growth during 1978 84 the adjustment in state procurement prices also contributed positively to output growth its impact came mainly from the responses in input use the effect of other market related reforms on productivity and output growth was very small reasons for slowdown in agricultural growth after 1984 are also analyzed copyright 1992 by american economic association

commitment and conflict in bilateral bargaining building on crawford 1982 we study a model of bilateral bargaining in which negotiators can make binding commitments at a low positive cost c our primary solution concept is iterated strict dominance if commitment attempts never fail there are three solutions in two solutions all the surplus goes to one player in the third solution there is a high probility of con ict if commitment attempts succeed with probability q 1 the unique solution entails con ict with probability q 2 when c 0 analogous results hold if the requirement of iterated strict dominance is replaced by iterated weak dominance

environmental quality preference and benefit estimation in multinomial probit models a simulation approach simulated maximum likelihood is used to estimate a random parameter multinomial probit model of destination choice for recreational fishing trips formulated to accommodate varying tastes and varying perceptions of environmental quality across individuals the restricted likelihood ratio test strongly rejects the independent probit model which is similar to the independent logit model in both the parameter and benefit estimates furthermore both the krinsky robb and bootstrapping procedures suggest that the benefit standard deviation of an environmental policy is found to be markedly lower higher when heterogeneous preferences are taken into account

statistical models for zero expenditures in household budgets household budget surveys are an important source of data on consumer s expenditure not just for individual consumers but also for estimating national aggregates however it is a widespread finding that for certain commodities most notably tobacco and alcohol the estimate from the household survey falls short of the known consumption total calculated with some confidence from data on production imports exports and excise duties for example in the british family expenditure survey with which we shall largely be concerned total tobacco expenditure was underestimated in 1976 by 21 percent see kemsley redpath and holmes 1980 p 51 much of this understatement together with that on alcohol is thought to occur because of the design of the survey which excludes many persons amongst whom consumption of such items is thought to be atypically high e g prisoners hoteliers and their residents merchant seamen even so the possibility remains that some of the understatement is due to various types of misreporting by households included in the survey in this paper we consider a model in which the standard tobit specification tobin 1958 is supplemented by the operation of a simple binary censor the tobit model is essentially a linear regression model in which non positive observations of the dependent variable are replaced by zero we take this specification as our starting point but add a second censoring process that randomly replaces a fraction of the observations generated by the tobit model bv zeroes the combined model can serve as a representation of several types of

accounting for choice set endogeneity in random utility models of recreation demand abstract modeling the choice among a discrete set of recreation alternatives is driven by the possible patterns of substitution among sites researchers typically assume that the individual s choice set is the same as the set of alternatives included in the recreation survey instrument our endogenous choice set model is a generalization of the standard multinomial logit random utility model which allows for the possibility of heterogeneous choice sets that are endogenously determined in the model using two examples we show that parameter and compensating variation estimates differ greatly between the endogenous choice set model and the traditional logit model

from made in china to innovated in china necessity prospect and challenges after more than three decades of high growth based on its low wage advantage and relatively favorable demographics in combination with market oriented reforms and openness to the world economy china is at a crossroads with a much higher wage and a shrinking workforce future growth will depend by necessity more on the generation of increased productivity and domestic innovation will play an important part in this in this paper we assess the likelihood that china can make the necessary transition using data on expenditure on research and development and patent applications receipts and citations we show that the chinese economy has become increasingly innovative we will argue that rising wages and expanding markets are among the important drivers of china s growth in innovation on the other hand we find evidence of resource misallocation in the innovation area while state owned firms receive more subsidies private firms exhibit more innovation results innovation can presumably progress even faster if resource misallocation can be tackled

measuring the cost of time in recreation demand analysis an application to sportfishing since the work of cesario and knetsch economists have recognized that the opportunity cost of time plays an important role in determining the demand for outdoor recreation the opportunities one has for spare time are more significant for consumption of time intensive outdoor recreation activities than for other commodities especially nondurables bishop and heberlein illustrate the overwhelming importance of time costs to final recreational values total consumer surplus is nearly four times as large when time costs are added at half the income rate as when time costs were set at zero p 21 despite the recognition economists have neither successfully integrated the costs of time with the methods of recreational demand analysis nor reached a consensus on how it should be measured brown charbonneau and hay state finally the apparently crucial importance of how opportunity cost of time is handled needs further work while we are convinced it is an appropriate concept exactly how it should be included and measured s remains to be determined p 24 several approaches have been taken to include it in the travel cost method one approach brown and nawas gum and martin suggests that time in transit be considered as a separate independent variable another approach bishop and heberlein brown charbonneau hay nicols bowes dwyer cesario and knetsch measures the cost of time and adds it to other costs several approaches have been suggested to measure time costs one approach is simply to choose an hourly wage e g 2 00 per hour or perhaps the minimum wage rate a more flexible but still ad hoc approach is to use some proportion of the individual s wage rate as the opportunity cost of time nichols bowes dwyer the proportion is usually taken from independent studies and used to value the travel time this approach is better than using a constant opportunity cost of time because it allows variation across individuals it suffers because the choice of the percentage of the wage rate is arbitrary independent of the sampled population cesario has discussed the consequences of ignoring time costs and the differences in values arising from alternative measurement approaches in this paper we argue that the opportunity cost of time is some proportion of the individual s market wage rate or income per hour and that this proportion can be determined from sample data this method permits the proportion to vary from one study to another rather than imposing either an arbitrary estimate or one from a sample different from the study s sample

the private provision of excludable public goods an inefficiency result abstract does voluntary contracting suffice for the efficient provision of excludable public goods even in a complete information environment we find that the answer is negative the reason is that some agents may profit from not participating at the provision stage but instead negotiate access ex post

endogenous games and mechanisms side payments among players we characterize the outcomes of games when players may make binding offers of strategy contingent side payments before the game is played this does not always lead to efficient outcomes despite complete information and costless contracting the characterizations are illustrated in a series of examples including voluntary contribution public good games cournot and bertrand oligopoly principal agent problems and commons games among others

a theory of gradual coalition formation we study noncooperative multilateral bargaining games based on underlying tu games in which coalitions can renegotiate their agreements we distinguish between models in which players continue to bargain after implementing agreements reversible actions and models in which players who implement agreements must leave the game irreversible actions we show that renegotiation always results in formation of the grand coalition if actions are reversible but that the process may otherwise end with smaller coalitions on the other hand we show that the grand coalition cannot form in one step if the core of the game is empty irrespective of the reversibility of actions agreements between players form the basis of much that game theory seeks to explain there are obviously many useful ways to categorize such agreements in multilateral negotiations that is with more than two participants it seems natural to distinguish between cases in which the coalition forms in one step and those in which the coalition grows to its eventual size by attracting new members thus recipients of marshall aid collectively agreed to american terms at the ceec in 1947 whereas a strict subset of these countries agreed to the schuman plan in 1950 with the other current members joining the eu over time similarly negotiations on climate change culminated in universal agreement at rio in 1992 whereas india and china only agreed to reduce cfc emissions in london in 1990 after other countries had signed up to the montreal protocol finally un security council resolution 242 urged that a multilateral conference be set up to establish a comprehensive settlement in the middle east whereas the process initiated by the oslo agreements and arguably camp david has consisted of a sequence of agreements between israel and its neighbours we will refer to cases in which the grand coalition forms in one step as involving immediate coalition formation or icf for short and cases in which a coalition grows as involving gradual coalition formation

narrow choice sets in a random utility model of recreation demand we consider the implications of narrow choice sets on welfare estimation in a random utility model of recreation demand we hypothesize that careful formulation of the choice set focusing on the sites of policy interest and their closest substitutes will give reasonably accurate welfare estimates we use nearby sites as close substitutes and treat more distant sites as aggregate alternatives in our application to fishing in maine we find that the welfare estimates are rather sensitive to narrowing choice sets in this manner the sensitivity largely tracts variation in the estimated travel cost coefficient across the different models considered