longevity risk subjective survival expectations and individual saving behavior abstract we provide evidence of individuals awareness of longevity risk the uncertainty about future survival probabilities based on subjective survival expectations elicited in the survey of health ageing and retirement in europe share and matching data on longevity risk from the human mortality database we find a positive relationship between the forecast dispersion in subjective survival estimates and longevity risk which indicates that individuals are to some extent aware of longevity risk our analysis of savings behavior shows that the dispersion in survival estimates is primarily explained by individuals disagreeing on the survival probability and not by their true awareness of the underlying uncertainty individuals do not save more on average when faced with longevity risk although theory suggests they should

patent validation at the country level the role of fees and translation costs one feature of the european patent system that is heavily criticized nowadays is related to its complex fragmentation and the induced cost burden for applicants once a patent is granted by the epo the assignee must validate and often translate it and pay the renewal fees to keep it in force in each country in which the applicant seeks protection the objective of this paper is to assess to what extent validation and renewal fees as well as translation costs affect the validation behavior of applicants we rely on a gravity model that aims at explaining patent flows between inventor and target countries within the european patent system the results show that the size of countries their wealth and the distance between their capital cities are significant determinants of patent flows validation fees and renewal fees further affect the validation behavior of applicants translation costs seem to have an impact as well the important role played by fees suggests that the implementation of cost reducing policy interventions like the london protocol would induce a significant increase in the number of patents validated in each european country

the purchasing power of money and nominal interest rates a re examination while it has been known for some time that under uncertainty the original version of the fisher hypothesis is not precisely correct empirical researchers have largely ignored this fact such an omission has possibly resulted in erroneous conclusions concerning other hypotheses most notably the impact of prices on the real economy this paper clarifies some of the previous interpretations of the existing empirical literature and provides a theoretical version of the relation between prices and interest rates empirical tests based on both the livingston survey data and data from time series forecasting models provide support for the fisher effect and the hypothesis that only covariance risk is priced in the treasury bill market one of the basic hypotheses concerning rationality in financial markets is based on statements generally attributed to fisher 18 fisher argued that the nominal or money rate of return on an asset should compensate an investor for his or her required real rate of return and changes in the purchasing power of money for the uncertainty case fisher replaced known purchasing power changes with the expected inflation rate whereas the fisher relationship under certainty is well defined his basic theorem under uncertainty is not precise as fama 15 has argued it is changes in the purchasing power of money not the inflation rate that should concern investors under uncertainty the expected value of one is not by jensen s inequality the inverse of the expected value of the other moreover fama and farber 16 grauer and litzenberger 20 and benninga and protopapadakis 3 have shown that when investors are risk averse the fisher relationship will generally not hold even after adjustment has been made for the distinction between purchasing power changes and the inflation rate in particular these authors show that an adjustment must be made for the fact that the real rate of return on nominal bonds is random while these issues have been discussed in the theoretical literature they have largely been ignored in the empirical work on this topic given the fact that nominal rates do not seem to adjust as rapidly to price changes as fisher hypothesized numerous empirical researchers have expanded the basic fisher model in an attempt to explain this empirical anomaly these extensions include the incorporation of a inflation rate variability and the growth in real output

private value of european patents abstract i examine the joint patent designation renewal behavior of the european patent office epo patent applicants during 1978 1996 using both nonparametric techniques and a parametric model the european patents granted through the epo are substantially more valuable than those through the national route value distribution of patents is highly skewed and even more so for the epo patent families the value of patent rights increases with the economic size of the country and exhibits modestly increasing returns to scale model estimation also reveals significant institutional differences across epo member countries in patent protection

the role of fees in patent systems theory and evidence this paper reviews the economic literature on the role of fees in patent systems two main research questions are usually addressed the impact of patent fees on the behavior of applicants and the question of optimal fees studies in the former group confirm that a range of fees affect the behavior of applicants and suggest that a patent is an inelastic good studies in the latter group provide grounds for both low and high application or pre grant fees and renewal or post grant fees depending on the structural context and policy objectives the paper also presents new stylized facts on patent fees of 30 patent offices worldwide it is shown that application fees are generally lower than renewal fees and renewal fees increase more than proportionally with patent age 2012 john wiley sons ltd

impacts of eu carbon emission trade directive on energy intensive industries indicative micro economic analyses the cost impacts from the european emission trading system ets on energy intensive manufacturing industries have been investigated the effects consist of direct costs associated to the co2 reduction requirements stated in the eu directive and of indirect costs of comparable magnitude that originate from a higher electricity price triggered by the ets in the power sector the total cost impacts remain below 2 of the production value for most industries within the ets in the kyoto period in the post kyoto phase assuming a 30 co2 reduction the total cost impact may raise up to 8 of production value in the heaviest industry sectors in steel and cement industries the cost impacts are 3 4 fold compared to the least affected pulp and paper and oil refining electricity intensive industries outside the ets will also be affected for example in aluminum and chlorine production the indirect cost impacts from ets could come up to 10 of production value already in the kyoto period as industry sectors are affected differently by the ets some correcting mechanisms may be worthwhile to consider in securing the operation of the most electricity intensive sectors e g balancing taxation schemes that may include as income source a levy on the wind fall profits of the power sector due to ets a future improvement in ets for industries within the scheme could be scaling of the emission reduction requirement so that the relative total emission reduction costs are at about the same level

can futures market data be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates this paper examines whether futures market data can be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates several ways of examining the data indicate that futures market data are not particularly informative about real interest rates not only does this evidence cast some doubt on results in previous research that make use of futures market data to draw inferences about real interest rates but it also indicates that future research on real interest rates may need to turn to a different line of attack understanding the behavior of real interest rates is a central issue in financial economics in previous research on this topic several approaches have been used to measure real interest rates in one approach real interest rates have been calculated by subtracting survey data on inflation expectations such as the livingston data from nominal interest rates the problem with survey based measures of real interest rates is that they are only as good as the survey measure of inflation expectations and there may be little incentive for the survey respondents to answer accurately an even more telling criticism of survey based measures often ignored in the literature is that the behavior of market expectations in driven by economic agents ai the margin who are eliminating unexploited profit opportunities market expectations are unlikely therefore to be well measured by the average expectations of survey respondents 2 because of doubts about survey based measures of real interest rates other

interest rates and the fisher effect in india an empirical study abstract this study throws light on the importance of adjustment lags variability of inflation changes in real income etc in the empirical estimation of fisher hypothesis variability of inflation has a significant negative impact on both short and long term interest rates in a developing economy like india the philips curve effect has not been operative in a developing country

a comparative study of u s and japanese patent systems in an era of global competition adequate protection of intellectual property in triad regions of the world particularly in japan has become increasingly important this study focuses on the differences and similarities in patent practices between japan and the united states british and german patent practices are also examined to offer a balanced comparison findings indicate that the japanese patent practices seem to discriminate against foreign applicants with longer pendency periods than for domestic applicants while the u s german and british patent practices appear to discriminate against foreign applicants with lower patent grant ratios than for domestic applicants

when do more patents reduce r d this paper develops a simple duopoly model in which investments in r d and patents are inputs in the production of firm rents patents are necessary to appropriate the returns to the firm s own r d but patents also create potential claims against the rents of rival firms analysis of the model reveals a general necessary condition for the existence of a positive correlation between the firm s r d intensity and the number of patents it obtains when that condition is violated changes in exogenous parameters that induce an increase in firms patenting can also induce a decline in r d intensity such a negative relationship is more likely when 1 there is sufficient overlap in firms technologies so that each firm s inventions are likely to infringe the patents of another firm 2 firms are sufficiently r d intensive and 3 patents are cheap relative to both the cost of r d and the value of final output this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

patent office in innovation policy nobody s perfect abstract the number of patent applications and bad patents issued has been rising rapidly in recent years based on this trend we study the overload problem within the patent office and its consequences on the firms r d incentives we assume that the examination process of patent applications is imperfect and that its quality is poorer under congestion depending on policy instruments such as submission fees and the toughness of the non obviousness requirement the system may result in a high r d equilibrium in which firms self select in their patent applications or in an equilibrium with low r d opportunistic patent applications and the issuance of bad patents multiple equilibria often co exist which deeply undermines the effectiveness of policy instruments we investigate the robustness of our conclusions as to how the value of patent protection is formalized taking into consideration the introduction of a penalty system for rejected patent applications as well as the role of commitment to a given patent protection policy

a survey of the economics of patent systems and procedures the last several decades have seen increases in patenting activity worldwide as well as growing issues related to patent quality in response to these quality issues a recent patent literature has emerged that investigates the behavior and incentives of patent examiners applicants and third parties in this paper we provide an overview of patent procedures patent systems and a survey of the new economic literature on patent systems both theoretical and empirical papers are considered policy implications coming from this literature are presented

inflation and unemployment the world economy today is vastly different from the 1930s when seymour harris the chairman of this meeting infected me with his boundless enthusiasm for economics and his steadfast confidence in its capacity for good works economics is very different too both the science and its subject have changed and for the better since world war ii but there are some notable constants unemployment and inflation still preoccupy and perplex economists statesmen journalists housewives and everyone else the connection between them is the principal domestic economic burden of presidents and prime ministers and the major area of controversy and ignorance in macroeconomics i have chosen to review economic thought on this topic on this occasion partly because of its inevitable timeliness partly because of a personal interest reaching back to my first published work in 1941

on the constancy of real interest rates and the mundell effect in reply to fama s 1975 tests on market efficiency and the constancy of the ex ante real rate nelson and schwert 1977 have demonstrated that the tests were not sufficiently powerful we have shown that all the structural parameters of their model are identifiable as such the random forecasting errors do not confound the problem of identifying variations in the real rate we estimated the mundell effect and demonstrated that in terms of in sample predictive efficiency the simple fisherian framework to generate real rates fairs quite well once rationality is imposed

the dynamics of the transfer and renewal of patents this article explores new data on the transfer and renewal of u s patents and interprets this new evidence using a model of patent transfers and renewal we find that the proportion of transferred patents is large and differs across technology fields and especially type of patentees we also find that the probability of a patent being traded depends on a number of factors the age of the patent the number of citations received by a given age the patent generality and whether the patent has been previously traded or not these findings are consistent with the predictions of a model of patent transfers and renewals

characterizing the policy mix and its impact on eco innovation a patent analysis of energy efficient technologies abstract this paper provides an empirical investigation of the role played by selected characteristics of the policy mix in inducing innovation in energy efficiency technologies an original dataset covering 23 oecd countries over the period 1990 2010 combines the full set of policies in the energy efficiency domain for the residential sector with data on patents applied over the same period in this specific technological sector the econometric results suggest that when the policy mix is characterised by a more balanced use in demand pull and technology push instruments its positive effects on eco innovation tend to be greater moreover a more comprehensive policy mix is shown to be able to enhance innovation activities for the generation of new energy efficient technologies however the simple addition of an indiscriminate number of simultaneous policy instruments may reduce policy mix effectiveness finally the empirical findings confirm previous evidence on the importance of policy spillover effects and suggest that policy similarity between countries may represent an important aspect to be accounted for in policy mix design

applicant behaviour in patent examination request lags abstract one component of the duration of pending patents why applicants choose to delay the examination process is modelled we use a matched sample of 9597 patent applications to examine this issue controlling for differences between patent offices we find evidence that applicants create investment uncertainty by delaying decisions to request patent examination

fisher phillips friedman and the measured impact of inflation on interest a reply the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that empirical findings which persistently appear to contradict the fisher hypothesis that the nominal rate of interest should rise by the full amount of an increase in anticipated inflation are due basically to a failure to control for changes in the real rate of interest that are associated with changes in anticipated inflation we are guided in our search for proper specification of a fisher equation by a simple general equilibrium model which is employed to derive the impact of a change in anticipated inflation upon nominal interest given the requirement that commodity money and labor markets remain in equilibrium in effect we depart from the empirical tradition which has grown up around testing of the fisher hypothesis that takes the real interest rate to be independent of anticipated inflation and argues that for anticipated inflation properly measured the data ought to support the fisher hypothesis 1

what percentage of innovations are patented empirical estimates for european firms abstract a 1993 survey on the innovative activities of europe s largest industrial firms obtained useable results on patenting activities for 604 respondents the data are used to calculate the sales weighted propensity rates for 19 industries the propensity rates equal the percentage of innovations for which a patent application is made the propensity rates for product innovations average 35 9 varying between 8 1 in textiles and 79 2 in pharmaceuticals the average for process innovations is 24 8 varying from 8 1 in textiles to 46 8 for precision instruments only four sectors have patent propensity rates for both product and process innovations combined that exceed 50 pharmaceuticals chemicals machinery and precision instruments regression results that control for the effect of industry sector show that patent propensity rates increase with firm size and are higher among firms that find patents to be an important method for preventing competitors from copying both product and process innovations the effect of secrecy is not so straightforward firms that find secrecy to be an important protection method for product innovations are less likely to patent as expected but secrecy has little effect on the propensity to patent process innovations the r d intensity of the firm has no effect on patent propensity rates for both product and process innovations the sector of activity has a strong influence on product patent propensities but very little effect on process patent propensities after controlling for the effect of other factors

on the optimality of the patent renewal system the patent system is mainly a renewal system the patent life is chosen by the patentee in return for fees i ask whether such a system can be justified by asymmetric information on costs and benefits of research in such a model i show that renewal mechanisms possibly with subsidies are equivalent to direct revelation mechanisms and therefore cannot be improved on regardless of the objective function under plausible circumstances patents should have a uniform life rather than varying in length as typically occurs under a renewal system

the quality factor in patent systems this article develops a methodology to compare the quality of examination services in three major patent systems quality is defined as the extent to which patent systems comply with the patentability conditions in a transparent way the methodology consists of a two layer analytical framework encompassing legal standards ls and their operational design od which includes several interdependent components that affect the stringency and transparency of the filtering process the comparison of patent systems in europe japan and the united states shows that their operational designs differ substantially the european system provides higher quality and more expensive examination services than the united states one while the japanese patent system is in an intermediate position the results illustrate that different system designs lead to different outcomes in terms of backlogs patent propensity and the number of dubious patent rights in force in this respect these findings i provide an empirical validation of the conjecture of a vicious cycle linking the quality of examination and demand for patents and ii highlight the need for a multifaceted convergence of patent systems before mutual recognition is put in place the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation comment in this note i raise two questions regarding fama s results the first is whether similar tests based on an information set somewhat broader than the past history of consumer price inflation will support fama s findings the second is whether given fama s data and model his results fully support his hypotheses the answer to both questions is no if one accepts the accuracy of the data during fama s sample period the current monthly rate of change of consumer prices ct is significantly related to the three previous monthly rates of change of

estimates of the value of patent rights in european countries during the post 1950 period this paper examines the distribution of the values of patent rights in the united kingdom france and germany during the post 1950 period these values are inferred from the behavior of patentees with respect to payment of renewal fees on their patents a simple economic model of renewal decisions is combined with data on the proportion of patents renewed at alternative ages and the renewal fee schedules to produce estimates of the distribution and the total value of patent rights in these countries moreover the data indicate that there have been changes in the value distribution and we follow these changes over the period the empirical results of particular interest concern the total value of patent rights and the relationship between changes in it and changes in the quantity of patents the skew in the distribution of patent values and the rate of obsolescence on the returns to patents

how broad should the scope of patent protection be i explore the trade off between a patent s length that is its lifetime and its width that is its scope of coverage a wider patent generally reduces the distortion of consumers choices between the patented brand of the product and unpatented lower priced varieties sold by competitors but also permits higher prices which increase relative to profits the deadweight losses from consumers switching consumption out of the product class i show under what conditions infinitely lived but very narrowly focused patents are the socially efficient way to reward innovation and under what conditions very short lived but very broad patents are optimal

government borrowing and tax adjusted real and nominal interest rates the purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of federal government budget deficits on one year tax adjusted nominal and real interest rates in an is lm as model the results suggest that the specification of the dependent variable is a crucial issue in the debate over the linkage between deficits and interest rates the evidence shows a positive and significant effect of various measures of the federal government deficit and debt on the real tax adjusted treasury bill rate in both the levels and the first differenced equations but not on the nominal tax adjusted rate the positive and significant deficit debt coefficients are also confirmed when the first differenced equation is estimated by instrumental variables and when the equation is estimated over various time periods thus there is robust evidence of a positive linkage between federal government borrowing and the tax adjusted real but not nominal interest rates

patents as options some estimates of the value of holding european patent stocks in many countries holders of patents must pay an annual renewal fee in order to keep their patents in force this paper uses data on the proportion of patents renewed and the renewal fees faced by post world war ii cohorts of patents in france the united kingdom and germany in conjunction with a model of patent holders renewal decisions to estimate the returns earned from holding patents in these countries since patents are often applied for at a nearly stage in the innovation process the model allows agents to be uncertain about the sequence of returns that will be earned if the patent is kept inforce formally then the paper presents and solves a discrete choice optimal stochastic control model derives the implications of the model on aggregate behaviour and then estimates the parameters of the model from aggregate data the estimates enable a detailed description of the evolution of the distribution of returns earned from holding patents over their life spans and calculations of both the annual returns earned from holding the patents still in force or the patent stocks in the alternative countries and the distribution of the discounted value of returns earned from holding the patents in a cohort this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the role of patents in information and communication technologies a survey of the literature during the last few decades the number of patents in information and communication technologies has increased considerably an increasing number of patents and the associated fragmentation of ip rights have generated a series of potentially problematic consequences patent thickets royalty stacking the emergence of patent assertion entities increased patent litigation particularly around standard essential patents and the difficulties with defining fair reasonable and nondiscriminatory licensing terms are some of the most debated issues in the literature that we review in this paper we devote a specific section of our survey to patent quality currently one of the most debated issues surrounding the patent system in our analysis we mix theoretical and empirical arguments with a more policy oriented reasoning this allows us to better position the different issues in the relevant political and economic context

anticipated money inflation uncertainity and real economic activity this paper critically examines a number of maintained hypotheses that are necessarily being tested along with the basic notion derived from the rational expectations re formulation of lucas 1972 19 73 that only unanticipated money matters the trend stationary representation of secular real output of lucas and others is replaced by a difference stationary representation found by nelson and plosser 1980 to be consistent with u s historical data the impact of inflation uncertainty on real activity is considered attention is paid to possible mis measurement of agents ex ante anticipated money growth it is found that three alternative measures of anticipated money growth produce a stable impact on growth of output and employment contemporaneous and lagged values of unanticipated money growth have no significant additional explanatory power in the presence of any one of the three measures of anticipated money growth beyond this it is impossible to reject the hypothesis that the initial positive real impact of anticipated money is not temporary inflation uncertainty is found to act as a significant depressant of real economic activity in the presence of all tested combinations of anticipated and unanticipated money growth this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection