mixed integer programming approaches for index tracking and enhanced indexation we consider the problem of reproducing the performance of a stock market index but without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index index tracking we also consider the problem of out performing the index enhanced indexation we present mixed integer linear programming formulations of these problems our formulations include transaction costs a constraint limiting the number of stocks that can be purchased and a limit on the total transaction cost that can be incurred as our formulations of these problems are mixed integer linear programs we can use a standard solver cplex numeric results are presented for eight data sets drawn from major markets the largest of these data sets involves over 2000 stocks

the impact of state taxes on pass through businesses evidence from the 2012 kansas income tax reform abstract in 2012 kansas undertook a large scale tax reform that excluded pass through business income from individual taxation in theory these changes enhance the incentives to undertake more real economic activity such as new business formation or expansion of existing businesses the reform also increased the incentive to avoid taxation by recharacterizing income sources this paper provides evidence of these effects using federal administrative income tax data spanning 2010 2014 several findings suggest that on both the extensive and intensive margins the pass through exclusion led to increased tax avoidance in the form of income recharacterization and shifting of effort from activities compensated through wages to those compensated with business income we do not find much evidence however that the kansas reform led to increases in real economic activity

testing genuine savings as a forward looking indicator of future well being over the very long run genuine savings gs have been much used in recent years as an indicator of a country s sustainability according to some theorists e g arrow et al 2012 under certain conditions a country with a positive level of gs should experience non declining future utility given the assumption of unlimited substitutability among all forms of capital sometimes called weak sustainability this paper reports the first very long run tests of gs also called comprehensive investment or adjusted net savings as a forward looking indicator of future well being we assemble data for british capital back to 1765 and construct several net investment measures which are used as indicators of two alternative measures of future well being consumption per capita and real wages an allowance for a value of time due to exogenous technological progress is included in some gs measures and we demonstrate the importance of this measure and the choice of discount rate over the very long run on the whole our results do not reject the postulated relationship between gs and future well being and show gs can be a forward looking indicator of future well being for periods of up to 100 years

allocating between active and passive management with the recent difficulty in beating the s p 500 index the debate over active versus passive investing has risen to a new level of importance we provide a framework for analyzing the trade off the typical pension fund faces in deciding how much to index our analysis gets at the root of active performance stock picking skill after analyzing the performance associated with various degrees of skill in various equity styles for the 1985 97 period we found that a modest amount of stock picking skill goes a long way and that the optimal amount of allocation to indexing declines as skill increases for most risk categories however some allocation to indexing is appropriate

portfolio optimization with tracking error constraints this article explores the risk and return relationship of active portfolios subject to a constraint on tracking error volatility tev which can also be interpreted in terms of value at risk such a constrained portfolio is the typical setup for active managers who are given the task of beating a benchmark the problem with this setup is that the portfolio manager pays no attention to total portfolio risk which results in seriously inefficient portfolios unless some additional constraints are imposed the development in this article shows that tev constrained portfolios are described by an ellipse on the traditional mean variance plane this finding yields a number of new insights because of the flat shape of this ellipse adding a constraint on total portfolio volatility can substantially improve the performance of the active portfolio in general plan sponsors should concentrate on controlling total portfolio risk

historical wealth accounts for britain progress and puzzles in measuring the sustainability of economic growth we thank the leverhulme trust for funding this research under the project history and the future

strong sustainability critical natural capital and the capability approach this article is an attempt to conceptually improve the notion of strong sustainability by creating a rapprochement between its core concept critical natural capital and the capability approach we first demonstrate that the capability approach constitutes a relevant framework for analysing the multiple links between human well being and critical natural capital second we demonstrate that the rapprochement between critical natural capital and the capability approach can form both the normative basis and the informational basis for a deliberative approach to human development which embraces a strong sustainability perspective this conceptual rapprochement as illustrated in our case study opens up avenues of research towards the practical implementation of human development projects from a strong sustainability perspective

on exact and approximate stochastic dominance strategies for portfolio selection abstract one recent and promising strategy for enhanced indexation is the selection of portfolios that stochastically dominate the benchmark we propose here a new type of approximate stochastic dominance rule which implies other existing approximate stochastic dominance rules we then use it to find the portfolio that approximately stochastically dominates a given benchmark with the best possible approximation our model is initially formulated as a linear program with exponentially many constraints and then reformulated in a more compact manner so that it can be very efficiently solved in practice this reformulation also reveals an interesting financial interpretation we compare our approach with several exact and approximate stochastic dominance models for portfolio selection an extensive empirical analysis on real and publicly available datasets shows very good out of sample performances of our model

does the basle capital accord reduce bank fragility an assessment of the value at risk approach abstract we examine the economic implications arising from a bank using a var constrained mean variance model for the selection of its trading portfolio as a consequence of the basle capital accord surprisingly we show that when a var constraint is imposed it is plausible that certain banks will end up selecting riskier portfolios than they would have chosen in the absence of the constraint accordingly regulators such as the basle committee on banking supervision should be aware that allowing a bank to use var to determine its minimum regulatory capital may increase its fragility alternatives to var based bank capital regulation that mitigate or even preclude its perverse implications are presented

multiple benchmark and multiple portfolio optimization numerous real life portfolio optimization problems require consideration of more than one benchmark and or more than one portfolio these problems are formulated in a way that seems to be more complicated than the standard problem of mean tracking error variance optimization in fact however these diverse problems can be reduced to the standard case and solved with the same algorithm this article provides solutions to the dual benchmark problem the portfolio partition problem and the completion portfolio problem such solutions and applications are important to both portfolio managers and plan sponsors

a comparison of var and cvar constraints on portfolio selection with the mean variance model in this paper we analyze the portfolio selection implications arising from imposing a value at risk var constraint on the mean variance model and compare them with those arising from the imposition of a conditional value at risk cvar constraint we show that for a given confidence level a cvar constraint is tighter than a var constraint if the cvar and var bounds coincide consequently a cvar constraint is more effective than a var constraint as a tool to control slightly risk averse agents but in the absence of a risk free security has a perverse effect in that it is more likely to force highly risk averse agents to select portfolios with larger standard deviations however when the cvar bound is appropriately larger than the var bound or when a risk free security is present a cvar constraint dominates a var constraint as a risk management tool

sustainability and technical progress a rigorous model connects together the following three basic concepts 1 sustainability meaning the generalized future power of an economy to consume over time 2 green nnp meaning a current measure of national income that subtracts off from gnp not just depreciation of capital but also more generally depletion of environmental assets evaluated at current efficiency prices 3 technological progress meaning a projection onto the future of the so called solow residual a simple general formula is derived some crude calculations suggest a possibly strong effect of the residual which hints that our best present estimates of long term sustainability may be largely driven by predictions of future technological progress

dynamic models for fixed income portfolio management under uncertainty abstract we develop multi period dynamic models for fixed income portfolio management under uncertainty using multi stage stochastic programming with recourse the models integrate the prescriptive stochastic programs with descriptive monte carlo simulation models of the term structure of interest rates extensive validation experiments are carried out to establish the effectiveness of the models in hedging against uncertainty and to assess their performance vis a vis single period models an application to tracking the salomon brothers mortgage index is reported with very encouraging results results that establish the efficacy of the models in hedging against out of sample scenarios are also reported for an application from money management the multi period models outperform classical models based on portfolio immunization and single period models

a simple algorithm to incorporate transactions costs in quadratic optimisation quantitative fund management invariably involves portfolio performance being measured in terms of a quadratic objective function due to the inclusion of variance terms as a measure of risk periodically the constituents of the fund are adjusted to improve performance this adjustment incurs a transaction cost which is a modulus function of the changes in holdings thus the fund manager wishes to minimise a combined quadratic and modulus function this paper presents a new approach to deal with the minimisation of this hybrid function using a well tried quadratic programming algorithm the new algorithm is demonstrated using a tactical asset allocation problem and an equity index tracking fund

economic implications of using a mean var model for portfolio selection a comparison with mean variance analysis abstract we relate value at risk var to mean variance analysis and examine the economic implications of using a mean var model for portfolio selection when comparing two mean variance efficient portfolios the higher variance portfolio might have less var consequently an efficient portfolio that globally minimizes var may not exist surprisingly we show that it is plausible for certain risk averse agents to end up selecting portfolios with larger standard deviations if they switch from using variance to var as a measure of risk therefore regulators should be aware that var is not an unqualified improvement over variance as a measure of risk

a framework for the practical application of the concepts of critical natural capital and strong sustainability this paper develops a methodology for identifying that natural capital called critical natural capital cnc the maintenance of which is essential for environmental sustainability by consideration of the characteristics of natural capital of the environmental functions that these characteristics enable natural capital to perform and of the importance of these functions to humans and the biosphere it shows how sustainability standards in respect of these environmental functions may be derived the difference between the current situation and these standards is termed the sustainability gap the methodology that emerges from bringing these ideas together into a single analytical framework enables policy makers to identify the extent of current unsustainability the principal causes of it the elements and processes of natural capital the cnc which need to be maintained or restored to close the sustainability gap and the costs of so doing the framework should therefore be of use in identifying priorities and policies for moving towards environmental sustainability

personal bankruptcy and credit supply and demand this paper examines how personal bankruptcy and bankruptcy exemptions affect the supply and demand for credit while generous state level bankruptcy exemptions are probably viewed by most policy makers as benefiting less well off borrowers our results using data from the 1983 survey of consumer finances suggest that they increase the amount of credit held by high asset households and reduce the availability and amount of credit to low asset households conditioning on observable characteristics thus bankruptcy exemptions redistribute credit toward borrowers with high assets interest rates on automobile loans for low asset households also appear to be higher in high exemption states

optimal portfolio selection in a value at risk framework abstract in this paper we develop a portfolio selection model which allocates financial assets by maximising expected return subject to the constraint that the expected maximum loss should meet the value at risk limits set by the risk manager similar to the mean variance approach a performance index like the sharpe index is constructed furthermore when expected returns are assumed to be normally distributed we show that the model provides almost identical results to the mean variance approach we provide an empirical analysis using two risky assets us stocks and bonds the results highlight the influence of both non normal characteristics of the expected return distribution and the length of investment time horizon on the optimal portfolio selection

the role of technological progress in testing adjusted net savings evidence from oecd countries abstract in this paper we investigate the relationship between comprehensive measures of savings and changes in future consumption in oecd countries this relationship is at the basis of the interpretation of adjusted net savings as a weak sustainability indicator and so evidence of its validity provides support to the use of this indicator we construct various measures of comprehensive savings for 20 oecd countries to include depletion from non renewable resources human capital investment and technological progress given their importance especially for rich countries we focus on the role of technical progress and human capital in the form of changes in education level we do not find strong evidence in favor of including green adjustments in the conventional net savings however we find compelling evidence for the inclusion of technological progress since this involves a forward looking term the above result suggests that to construct an indicator of weak sustainability from conventional net savings some estimate of future technological progress is needed

the impact of marginal tax rates on taxable income evidence from state income tax differentials the relationship between marginal tax rates and taxable income is analyzed with a large cross section of income tax returns filed by individuals who face different marginal tax rates because of state income tax differentials the empirical results suggest that an increase in the marginal tax rate reduces taxable income primarily because taxpayers claim larger deductions high income taxpayers are found to be more responsive to tax rate changes than lower income individuals the findings are compared to those of other recent studies incorporating a wider range of taxpayer responses to tax rate changes than considered in this study

optimal portfolio selection and dynamic benchmark tracking abstract this paper analyzes different approaches to portfolio selection when the requirement to portfolio performance is formulated relative to a given benchmark for example it may be desirable to track a market index as closely as possible we develop several portfolio selection algorithms based on different perceptions of risk and different risk target measures ranging from the traditional variance to the more modern value at risk in a dynamic setting we address the issue of optimal portfolio rebalancing we develop an algorithm for determining whether or not to rebalance a given portfolio based on transaction costs and new information about market conditions our approaches are tested on a set of stock data from the oslo stock exchange

an evolutionary heuristic for the index tracking problem abstract index tracking is a popular form of passive fund management the index tracking problem is the problem of reproducing the performance of a stock market index but without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index our formulation of the problem explicitly includes transaction costs associated with buying or selling stocks and a limit on the total transaction cost that can be incurred our formulation also includes a constraint limiting the number of stocks that can be purchased an evolutionary heuristic population heuristic is presented for the solution of the index tracking problem reduction tests are also presented computational results are presented for five data sets drawn from major world markets these data sets are made publicly available for use by other workers

the persistence of risk adjusted mutual fund performance the authors examine predictability for stock mutual funds using risk adjusted returns they find that past performance is predictive of future risk adjusted performance applying modern portfolio theory techniques to past data improves selection and allows the authors to construct a portfolio of funds that significantly outperforms a rule based on past rank alone in addition they can form a combination of actively managed portfolios with the same risk as a portfolio of index funds but with higher mean return the portfolios selected have small but statistically significant positive risk adjusted returns during a period where mutual funds in general had negative risk adjusted returns copyright 1996 by university of chicago press

beating the market with small portfolios evidence from brazil abstract optimal portfolios with a restriction on the number of assets also referred to as cardinality constrained portfolios have been receiving attention in the literature due to its popularity among market practitioners and retail investors in most cases however the interest is in proposing efficient optimization methods to solve the problem with little or no attention to the characteristics of the resulting portfolio such as risk adjusted performance and turnover we address this question by implementing a tractable reformulation of the cardinality constrained version of the minimum variance portfolio we analyze the out of sample performance of cardinality constrained portfolios according to alternative criteria and check the robustness of the results for portfolios with alternative number of assets and under alternative re balancing frequencies our empirical application for the brazilian equities market shows that cardinality constrained minimum variance portfolios with very few assets e g 3 stocks can deliver statistically lower portfolio risk and higher sharpe ratios in comparison to the market index similar results are obtained for constrained portfolios with 5 and 10 assets and under daily weekly and monthly re balancing frequencies our evidence indicates that it is possible to obtain better risk adjusted performance with fewer securities in the portfolio by using an improved allocation scheme

portfolio selection with a drawdown constraint abstract when identifying optimal portfolios practitioners often impose a drawdown constraint this constraint is even explicit in some money management contracts such as the one recently involving merrill lynch management of unilever s pension fund in this setting we provide a characterization of optimal portfolios using mean variance analysis in the absence of a benchmark we find that while the constraint typically decreases the optimal portfolio s standard deviation the constrained optimal portfolio can be notably mean variance inefficient in the presence of a benchmark such as in the merrill lynch unilever contract we find that the constraint increases the optimal portfolio s standard deviation and tracking error volatility thus the constraint negatively affects a portfolio manager s ability to track a benchmark

active portfolio management with benchmarking adding a value at risk constraint abstract we examine the impact of adding a value at risk var constraint to the problem of an active manager who seeks to outperform a benchmark while minimizing tracking error variance tev by using the model of roll 1992 a mean variance analysis of tracking error journal of portfolio management 18 13 22 we obtain three main results first portfolios on the constrained mean tev boundary still exhibit three fund separation but the weights of the three funds when the constraint binds differ from those in roll s model second the constraint mitigates the problem that when an active manager seeks to outperform a benchmark using the mean tev model he or she selects an inefficient portfolio finally when short sales are disallowed the extent to which the constraint reduces the optimal portfolio s efficiency loss can still be notable but is smaller than when short sales are allowed

capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development an indicator of weak sustainability the measurement of sustainable development is not without considerable difficulties yet this should not detract from the positive advances that can be made in this direction in this paper we present one form that a weak sustainability indicator can take derived from a simple but intuitive savings rule it incorporates the idea that the level of overall capital stock should be non decreasing although subject to qualification at this stage some interesting results emerge from the application of the rule to 18 countries

optimal construction and rebalancing of index tracking portfolios abstract index funds aim to track the performance of a financial index such as e g the standard poor s 500 index index funds have become popular because they offer attractive risk return profiles at low costs the index tracking problem considered in this paper consists of rebalancing the composition of the index fund s tracking portfolio in response to new market information and cash deposits and withdrawals from investors such that the index fund s tracking accuracy is maximized in a frictionless market maximum tracking accuracy is achieved by investing the index fund s entire capital in a tracking portfolio that has the same normalized value development as the index in the presence of transaction costs which reduce the fund s capital one has to manage the trade off between transaction costs and similarity in terms of normalized value developments existing mathematical programing formulations for the index tracking problem do not optimize this trade off explicitly which may result in substantial transaction costs or tracking portfolios that differ considerably from the index in terms of normalized value development in this paper we present a mixed integer linear programing formulation with a novel optimization criterion that directly considers the trade off between transaction costs and similarity in terms of normalized value development in an experiment based on a set of real world problem instances the proposed formulation achieves a considerably higher tracking accuracy than state of the art formulations

weak support for weak sustainability genuine savings and long term wellbeing in sweden 1850 2000 we study genuine savings as an indicator of long term welfare for sweden for the period 1850 to 2000 sweden has developed long series of comprehensive green national accounts for this entire per

short selling and efficient sets the effect of short selling on the composition and location of the efficient set has been analyzed in a variety of ways however the situation typically facing investors where the initial margin requirement is less than 100 percent and the riskfree interest rate that is paid on the short proceeds is less than the rate paid on initial margin has not previously been considered the elton gruber padberg algorithm 1976 1978 subject to certain modifications is shown here to be capable of identifying the efflcient set under such conditions when harry markowitz 1952 developed the notion of efficient sets as a method of identifying an investor s optimal portfolio he did so in a setting where short selling was prohibited since then the effect of short selling on the composition and location of the efficient set has been considered in a variety of ways for example lintner 1965 suggested that short sales be treated from the perspective of a broker dealer where an amount of money equal to the short proceeds must be put up as initial margin with the short seller receiving riskfree interest on both the short proceeds and the margin alternatively black 1972 and merton 1972 assumed that the short seller did not have to put up any initial margin and that the short seller actually got the use of the short proceeds more recently dyl 1975 has assumed that the short seller must put up initial margin that is less than the short proceeds but receives no interest on either the margin or short proceeds this paper is concerned with the generation of efficient sets where short selling is allowed but with certain restrictions attached to it referred to hereafter as restricted short selling in particular initial margin is required but can be met by depositing interest bearing securities with the brokerage firm where the short seller s account is kept furthermore the model allows the short seller to earn interest on the short proceeds accordingly the model

performance replication of the spot energy index with optimal equity portfolio selection evidence from the uk us and brazilian markets abstract this paper reproduces the performance of a geometric average spot energy index by investing only in a subset of stocks from the dow jones composite average the ftse 100 and bovespa composite indexes and in two pools that include only energy sector stocks from the us and the uk respectively daily data are used and the index tracking problem for passive investment is addressed with two evolutionary algorithms the differential evolution algorithm and the genetic algorithm the performance of the suggested investment strategy is tested under three different scenarios buy and hold quarterly and monthly rebalancing accounting for transaction costs where necessary

the effect of marginal tax rates on taxable income a panel study of the 1986 tax reform act this paper uses a treasury department panel of more than 4 000 taxpayers to estimate the sensitivity of taxable income to changes in tax rates on the basis of a comparison of the tax returns of the same individual taxpayers before and after the 1986 tax reform the analysis emphasizes that the response of taxable income involves much more than a change in the traditional measures of labor supply the evidence shows an elasticity of taxable income with respect to the marginal net of tax rate that is at least one and could be substantially higher the implications for recent tax rate changes are discussed

index tracking model downside risk and non parametric kernel estimation abstract in this paper we propose an index tracking model with the conditional value at risk cvar constraint based on a non parametric kernel npk estimation framework in theory we demonstrate that the index tracking model with the cvar constraint is a convex optimization problem we then derive npk estimators for tracking errors and cvar and thereby construct the npk index tracking model monte carlo simulations show that the npk method outperforms the linear programming lp method in terms of estimation accuracy in addition the npk method can enhance computational efficiency when the sample size is large empirical tests show that the npk method can effectively control downside risk and obtain higher excess returns in both bearish and bullish market environments

comprehensive wealth and future consumption accounting for population growth economic theory predicts that the current change in national wealth broadly defined to include natural and human capital as well as produced capital genuine savings determines whether the present value of future changes in consumption is positive or negative theoretical research has focused on the effects of population growth on this relation but no rigorous empirical investigation has been conducted panel data for 64 developing countries during 1970 82 are used to test the effects of three adjustments for population growth including one that controls for omitted wealth although the adjustments have substantial impacts on estimates of genuine savings they lead to only limited improvements in the relation between those estimates and subsequent consumption changes even without adjustments for population growth adjustments for natural resource depletion improve the relation significantly policymakers and economists can interpret published estimates of genuine savings as signals of future consumption paths if and only if the estimates include adjustments for natural resource depletion but better estimates of capital stocks are needed before it can be confidently said that adjustments for population growth significantly improve the accuracy of those signals

augmenting the world bank s estimates ireland s genuine savings through boom and bust abstract the world bank computes estimates of genuine savings gs a leading indicator of sustainable development for most countries a well established literature has called for methodological enhancement this paper presents augmented estimates of irish gs throughout a period of unprecedented economic expansion and decline 1990 2016 a time series constructed predominantly from national sources includes the most comprehensive coverage of pollutants in the literature surveyed we apply a novel method to aid the property rights designation assessment required for transboundary pollutant accounting in sharp contrast to the world bank s estimates our findings suggest that a modern developed economy can exhibit signs of unsustainability furthermore extended environmental damages drive these results suggesting expanded country specific gs may diverge considerably from the world bank s estimates we find rapid economic development and rapid declines in environmental damages can occur concurrently and on the transition away from an unsustainable path

the effect of income taxes on household income research on the distribution of income during the 1980s has identified a trend towards increasing inequality which may be the continuation and acceleration of trends spanning several decades this paper explores to what extent behavioral responses to the tax changes during the 1980s may also explain the rising inequality the 1986 tax reform act is used as a natural experiment to explore the roles played by both taxes and a variety of nontax factors our principal finding is that both tax rates and nontax factors appear to have had significant effects on relative income growth during the late 1980s

risk2 measuring the risk in value at risk the recent derivatives disasters have focused the attention of the finance industry on the need to control financial risks better this search has led to a uniform measure of risk called value at risk var which is the expected worst loss over a given horizon at a given confidence level var numbers however are themselves affected by sampling variation or estimation risk thus the risk in value at risk itself nevertheless given these limitations var is an indispensable tool to control financial risks this article lays out the statistical methodology for analyzing estimation error in var and shows how to improve the accuracy of var estimates

dynamic portfolio optimization with transaction costs heuristics and dual bounds we consider the problem of dynamic portfolio optimization in a discrete time finite horizon setting our general model considers risk aversion portfolio constraints e g no short positions return predictability and transaction costs this problem is naturally formulated as a stochastic dynamic program unfortunately with nonzero transaction costs the dimension of the state space is at least as large as the number of assets and the problem is very difficult to solve with more than one or two assets in this paper we consider several easy to compute heuristic trading strategies that are based on optimizing simpler models we complement these heuristics with upper bounds on the performance with an optimal trading strategy these bounds are based on the dual approach developed in brown et al brown d b j e smith p sun 2009 information relaxations and duality in stochastic dynamic programs oper res 58 4 785 801 in this context these bounds are given by considering an investor who has access to perfect information about future returns but is penalized for using this advance information these heuristic strategies and bounds can be evaluated using monte carlo simulation we evaluate these heuristics and bounds in numerical experiments with a risk free asset and 3 or 10 risky assets in many cases the performance of the heuristic strategy is very close to the upper bound indicating that the heuristic strategies are very nearly optimal this paper was accepted by dimitris bertsimas optimization

portfolio frontiers with restrictions to tracking error volatility and value at risk abstract asset managers are often given the task of restricting their activity by keeping both the value at risk var and the tracking error volatility tev under control however these constraints may be impossible to satisfy simultaneously because var is independent of the benchmark portfolio the management of these restrictions is likely to affect portfolio performance and produces a wide variety of scenarios in the risk return space the aim of this paper is to analyse various interactions between portfolio frontiers when risk managers impose joint restrictions upon tev and var specifically we provide analytical solutions for all the intersections and we propose simple numerical methods when such solutions are not available finally we introduce a new portfolio frontier

income taxes and entrepreneurs use of labor we investigate the effect of entrepreneurs personal taxes on their use of labor analyze the tax returns of sole proprietors before and after the tax reform act of 1986 and determine how the substantial reductions in marginal tax rates affected their hiring decisions and wage bills individual income taxes exert a statistically and quantitatively significant influence on the probability of hiring workers raising the entrepreneur s tax price by 10 raises the mean probability of hiring by about 12 further taxes influence total wage payments to workers the tax price elasticity of the median wage bill is about 37

integrated simulation and optimization models for tracking indices of fixed income securities increasing performance pressures on fixed income managers have led to a search for new and creative ways to add to portfolio returns the largest pension plan sponsors insurance companies foundations and money management firms are using indexed portfolios as their fixed income assets management strategies since the late 1970s tracking a fixed income index is a difficult task due to transaction costs portfolio size and diversification restrictions liquidity requirements bid ask spreads etc this paper develops an integrated simulation and optimization approach for tracking fixed income indices the model was implemented at metropolitan life insurance company we introduce a simulation model for generating scenarios of holding period returns of the securities in the index then we develop optimization models to select a portfolio that tracks the index the models penalize downside deviations of the portfolio return from the index the developed framework is used to track the salomon brothers mortgag

genuine savings leading indicator of sustainable development abstract the world bank recently began publishing estimates of countries genuine savings a comprehensive measure of net investment across all forms of capital natural and human as well as produced this article presents the first empirical investigation of the consistency of the bank s estimates with the hypothesis that net investment should equal the difference between a country s average future consumption and its current consumption results show that the bank s estimates are consistent only with weak versions of this hypothesis and then only for developing countries moreover a simple autoregressive integrated moving average arima model outperforms any net investment measure comprehensive or conventional as a predictor of the difference between current and future consumption in sum the bank s net investment estimates tend to move in the same direction as the difference between current and average future consumption in developing countries but they have little value for predicting the mag

hedging diffusion processes by local risk minimization with applications to index tracking abstract this paper extends the local risk minimization criterion for hedging contingent claims as introduced in follmer and sondermann hedging of non redundant contingent claims in hildenbrand w mas colell a eds contributions to mathematical economics elsevier science north holland amsterdam pp 205 223 follmer and schweizer hedging of contigent claims under incomplete information in davis m elliot r eds applied stochastic analysis stochastic monographs vol 5 gordon and breach london new york pp 389 414 and schweizer option hedging for semimartingales stochastic processes and their applications 37 339 363 to the hedging of entire stochastic processes and determines the necessary and sufficient conditions under which this is possible the results are then applied to the problem of stock index tracking to obtain simple criteria for selecting the optimal set of assets with which to form tracker portfolios and to derive a value at risk type measure for the set of assets used

robust tracking error portfolio selection with worst case downside risk measures abstract this paper proposes downside risk measure models in portfolio selection that captures uncertainties both in distribution and in parameters the worst case distribution with given information on the mean value and the covariance matrix is used together with ellipsoidal and polytopic uncertainty sets to build up this type of downside risk model as an application of the models the tracking error portfolio selection problem is considered by lifting the vector variables to positive semidefinite matrix variables we obtain semidefinite programming formulations of the robust tracking portfolio models numerical results are presented in tracking sse50 of the shanghai stock exchange compared with the tracking error variance portfolio model and the equally weighted strategy the proposed models are more stable have better accumulated wealth and have much better sharpe ratio in the investment period for the majority of observed instances

the tax effect on taxable income from privately held businesses the implications of the tax elasticity of taxable income have been widely discussed in the literature this study uses the reported rate of return to capture the effects of tax changes on taxable income from privately held businesses households decisions concerning reporting rates of return are embedded in a selection model of business investment decisions with 1983 1989 survey of consumer finances panel data the tax elasticity of the reported rates of return on privately held businesses is found to be positive and large the tax elasticity of taxable income from privately held businesses is thus crucial for policy evaluation several reasons for the high tax elasticity and the implications of it are also discussed

tax avoidance and the deadweight loss of the income tax traditional analyses of the income tax greatly underestimate deadweight losses by ignoring its effect on forms of compensation and patterns of consumption the full deadweight loss is easily calculated using the compensated elasticity of taxable income to changes in tax rates because leisure excludable income and deductible consumption are a hicksian composite good microeconomic estimates imply a deadweight loss of as much as 30 of revenue or more than ten times harberger s classic 1964 estimate the relative deadweight loss caused by increasing existing tax rates is substantially greater and may exceed 2 per 1 of revenue

portfolio constraints and the fundamental law of active management active portfolio management is typically conducted within constraints that do not allow managers to fully exploit their ability to forecast returns constraints on short positions and turnover for example are fairly common and materially restrictive other constraints such as market capitalization and value growth neutrality with respect to the benchmark or economic sector constraints can further restrict an active portfolio s composition we derive ex ante and ex post correlation relationships that facilitate the performance analysis of constrained portfolios the ex ante relationship is a generalized version of a previously developed fundamental law of active management and provides an important strategic perspective on the potential for active management to add value the ex post correlation relationship represents a practical decomposition of performance into the success of the return prediction process and the noise associated with portfolio constraints we verify the accuracy of these relati

does it all add up benchmarks and the compensation of active portfolio managers in this article the authors examine theoretically the use of benchmark portfolios in the compensation of privately informed portfolio managers they find that the use of a benchmark and particularly the types of benchmarks often observed in practice cannot be easily rationalized specifically commonly used benchmark adjusted compensation schemes are generally inconsistent with optimal risk sharing and do not lead to the choice of an optimal portfolio for the investor moreover benchmarks do not help in solving potential contracting problems such as inducing the manager to expend effort or trying to screen out uninformed managers copyright 1997 by university of chicago press

deep time series forecasting for enhanced index tracking we consider the problem of enhanced index tracking whose objective is to construct a portfolio that maximizes the excess return and minimizes the tracking error between the returns of the tracking

investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption we set out dollar valued net national product for an economy with a wasting essential stock oil deposit we take up maintaining capital intact and locally unchan ging consumption the percentage change in net investment or genuine savings relative to the market rate of interest denotes whether current consumption is rising

a linear model for tracking error minimization abstract this article investigates four models for minimizing the tracking error between the returns of a portfolio and a benchmark due to linear performance fees of fund managers we can argue that linear deviations give a more accurate description of the investors risk attitude than squared deviations all models have in common that absolute deviations are minimized instead of squared deviations as is the case for traditional optimization models linear programs are formulated to derive explicit solutions the models are applied to a portfolio containing six national stock market indexes usa japan uk germany france switzerland and the tracking error with respect to the msci morgan stanley capital international index world stock market index is minimized the results are compared to those of a quadratic tracking error optimization technique the portfolio weights of the optimized portfolio and its risk return properties are different across the models which implies that optimization models should be targeted to the specific investment objective finally it is shown that linear tracking error optimization is equivalent to expected utility maximization and lower partial moment minimization