an evaluation of technical progress and energy rebound effects in china s iron steel industry abstract as a pillar industry in china the iron steel sector have under through rapid growth and technical progress for decades however energy polices aiming at energy savings may not be as good as expected due to the existence of rebound effects the motivation of the paper is to analysis the nexus between technical progress and energy rebound effects based on a three input trans log cost function model we first estimate the share equation and the corresponding price elasticity for each input factor then the rebound effect in china s iron steel industry over 1985 2015 is evaluated through decomposing the energy prices empirical results show that 1 the price elasticities of input factors are negative 2 energy capital and energy labor show substitute relationships 3 the average energy rebound effect in the isi is as high as 73 88 4 the energy rebound effect shows a downward trend before the 11th five year period and then an upward trend after that therefore policies proposals of lowering the rebound effect should be placed not only on technical progress but also on energy price reform by reducing energy subsidies and thus accelerating energy price marketization so as to promote energy substitution reduce energy rebound effect and produce further economic and environmental benefits

an endogenous growth model for the evolution of water rights systems this article presents a model to help explain the transition path from one water management system to another typically a commons framework to one of tradable permit based property rights furthermore drawing from transaction cost literature the model demonstrates how this takes place when externalities the strain on water resources become severe enough to warrant the increased transaction costs inherent with more complex water rights management frameworks

energy substitution effect on transport sector of pakistan a trans log production function approach abstract transport sector of pakistan is one of the highest fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide co2 emission sector as a key user of fossil fuel energy pakistan s transport sector has created many problems i e noise air pollution co2 emissions and environmental problem in this study trans log production function model for pakistan s transport sector is established and input factors of labor capital and energy consumption are comprised the output elasticity of an individual input elasticity between a pair of factors and elasticity of substitution between input factors are analyzed to manage the multicollinearity issue ridge regression is applied at different values of k from 1991 to 2018 the outcomes show that output elasticities and a pair of input factor s elasticities are increasing the elasticities of substitutions between labor energy consumption and capital energy consumption show higher outcomes because of the more elevated amount of substitution elasticities the substitution elasticity between labor and capital starts from 0 9797 to 0 9326 with slightly decreasing trend the outcomes suggest that maximum output can be achieved by increasing capital and energy technologies by allocating the maximum capital in the transport industry energy saving technologies substitution between energy and capital and substitution among capital labor can enhance environmental protection in the above s view function the present study estimates the level of energy saving and co2 emissions reduction under the different scenarios from 2015 to 2018 the policy suggestions of the results are given below

a study on exergetic efficiency vis a vis sustainability of industrial sector in bangladesh abstract industrial sustainability has gained huge attention in the scientific community owing to the concern of global warming establishing sustainability indicators by the application of exergy analysis can guide and motivate industrial sustainability in this context an attempt is made to establish sustainability indicators for the industrial sector different measures to improve the sustainability of the industrial sector of bangladesh are also discussed based on the energy consumption data from the year 2000 2015 energy exergy and sustainability analyses are performed it is found that the energy efficiency varies from 55 01 to 59 67 and exergy efficiency varies from 53 11 to 56 97 exergy efficiency is found to be at lower side due to the accounting of irreversibility various sustainability indicators such as sustainability index depletion number exergetic renewable share cumulative exergy loss and non renewable exergetic share have been studied as well it is observed that depletion numbers vary from 43 to 45 and the sustainability index varies from 2 21 to 2 32 non renewable exergetic share is as high as 98 and maximum cumulative exergy loss is found to be 217 3 pj in 2015 improvement potential shows a continuous increase from 22 75 in 2000 to 101 89 in 2015 waste heat recovery energy audit waste minimization and adopting renewable energy sources are recommended to increase the efficiency and sustainability of this sector the outcome of this study reveals that exergy analysis is an effective technique to develop energy conservation policies for this sector

separability functional form and regulatory policy in models of interfuel substitution abstract counter intuitive results such as positive own price elasticities have been found in some studies of interfuel substitution this paper examines three possible reasons for this problem first including energy materials in petroleum and coal aggregates is found to contribute to incorrect signs second the mathematical properties of the translog function contribute to concavity violations in contrast the linear logit model of cost shares is found to provide more sensible estimates of own price elasticities across alternative model specifications finally natural gas curtailment policies and environmental regulations are found to be significant factors influencing us industrial fuel demand although omission of these factors does not directly contribute to curvature violations

estimates of inter fuel substitution possibilities in chinese chemical industry abstract the chemical sector is a key driver of china s remarkable growth record and accounts for about 10 of the country s gdp this has made the industry energy intensive and consequently a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions ghg and other pollutants this study has attempted to investigate the potential for inter fuel substitution between coal oil natural gas and electricity in chinese chemical sector by employing a translog production and cost function ridge regression procedure was adopted to estimate the parameters of the function estimation results show that all energy inputs are substitutes in addition the study produces evidence that the significant role of coal in the chinese chemical fuel mix converges over time albeit slowly these results suggest that price based policies coupled with capital subsidy programs can be adopted to redirect technology use towards cleaner energy sources like electricity and natural gas hence retaining the ability to fuel the chemical sector while also mitigating ghg emissions notwithstanding one must understand that the extent to which substituting electricity for coal will be effective depends on the extent to which coal or oil is used in generating electricity the findings of this study provide general insights and underscore the importance of chinese government policies that focus on installed capacity of renewable electricity energy intensity targets as well as merger of enterprises

the role of investment specific technological change in the business cycle this is a quantitative investigation of the importance of technological change speci c to new investment goods for postwar us aggregate uctuations a growth model that incorporates this form of technological change is calibrated to us data and simulated using the relative price of new equipment to identify the process driving investmentspeci c technology shocks the analysis suggests that this form of technological change is the source of about 30 of output uctuations 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

a note on merton s optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous time model in the paper optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous time model by r c merton j econ theory 3 1971 373 413 solutions obtained in cases when marginal utility at zero consumption is finite are not feasible while they do satisfy the hamilton jacobi bellman equations they do not represent appropriate value functions because the boundary behavior near zero wealth is not satisfactorily dealt with in this note we specify the boundary behavior and characterize optimal solutions journal of economic literature classification numbers 022 213

stochastic growth with correlated production shocks this paper extends the stochastic growth model of brock and mirman j econ theory 4 1972 497 513 to allow the production shocks to be correlated over time the resultant optimal savings and consumption policies depend not only upon the current level of output but also upon the most recent realization of the random shock the properties of these policy functions are studied and it is shown that the markov process on output capital stock and consumption resulting from the application of these policies converges to a stationary distribution

risk taking global diversification and growth this paper develops a continuous time stochastic model in which international risk sharing can yield substantial welfare gains through its effect on expected consumption growth the mechanism linking global diversification to growth is an attendant world portfolio shift from safe low yield capital to riskier high yield capital the presence of these two types of capital captures the idea that growth depends on the availability of an ever increasing array of specialized hence inherently risky production inputs calibration exercises using consumption and stock market data imply that most countries reap large steady state welfare gains from global financial integration copyright 1994 by american economic association

industrial sector fuel price elasticities following the first and second major oil price shocks abstract estimated fuel price elasticities are consistent with reactions following the second major oil shock having been significantly different from reactions to its predecessor in turn elasticities for both sub periods are not well represented by those estimated for 1960 1982 as a whole

human development at risk economic growth with pollution induced health shocks risks to human health stemming from polluted air water and soil are substantial especially in the rapidly growing economies the present paper develops a theoretical framework to study an endogenously growing economy which is subject to pollution induced health shocks with the health status being an argument of the welfare function pollution arising as a negative externality from production adversely and randomly affects the regeneration ability of a human body leading to a decline in the overall health status of the population we include two types of uncertainty surrounding the health status continuous small scale fluctuations driven by the wiener process and large scale shocks or epidemics driven by the poisson process we derive closed form analytical solutions for the optimal abatement policy and the growth rate of consumption devoting a constant fraction of output to emissions abatement delivers the first best allocation this fraction is an increasing function of total factor productivity polluting intensity of production and damage intensity of both continuous and jump type shocks a higher frequency of jumps also calls for more vigorous abatement policies by contrast the optimal growth rate of the economy is decreasing in the frequency and intensity of shocks and in the polluting intensity of output the efficiency of abatement technology has in general an ambiguous bearing on both the growth rate and on the abatement share due to the opposing forces of the direct and indirect effects

input substitution effect in china s chemical industry evidences and policy implications abstract the chemical industry is one of the six high energy consuming and emission intensive sectors in china and the chinese government has focused its attention on energy saving and emissions reduction in the sector with the aim of contributing to the objective of energy saving and emission reduction in the sector this article studies the external substitution relationship of capital energy and labor energy using the translog production function and ridge regression the results are as follow the output elasticities of energy labor and capital are positive the substitution elasticities of capital labor capital energy and labor energy are positive and stable and their values are close to 1 which indicates that the three factors are substitutes for one another furthermore based on the above function we measure the level of energy saving and emissions reduction under different scenarios in 2012 policy implications of the results are provided

a model of creative destruction with undiversifiable risk and optimising households this paper studies optimal household behaviour in a model of creative destruction the saving technology is characterised by stochastic returns that follow a poisson process it is shown that equilibrium conditions with optimising households differ substantially from equilibrium conditions where investment in r d is determined by firms three out of four market failures disappear and a new market failure resulting from a complementarity in financing r d is identified studying the social optimum shows that it contains as the special case of risk neutrality the social optimum derived in the literature

efficient dynamic pollution taxation in an uncertain environment this paper analyzes efficient pollution taxation within a stochastic model of endogenous growth pollution is a by product of production and causes disutility furthermore the productivity which results from environmental quality is uncertain this reflects e g uncertain capital depreciation induced by natural disasters like hurricanes or floods this uncertainty is shown to raise an ambiguous impact on the optimal pollution level as well as on optimal environmental taxation market equilibrium turns out to be suboptimal since the households mis perceive their individual impact on pollution conditions for welfare maximizing pollution taxation are stated and it is shown that a direct pollution tax is not appropriate to yield pareto optimal growth instead a linear capital income tax together with a linear abatement subsidy build an efficient tax scheme if secondarily the governmental budget is balanced moreover an increase in the riskiness of environmental productivity may even lead to an increase in the optimal pollution level and to a decrease in optimal environmental taxation depending predominantly on the preference parameters

unconventional energy taxation and interstate welfare an analysis of pennsylvania s severance tax policy abstract natural gas production from unconventional sources has increased over the past decade a significant portion of this increase has come from output in the marcellus region of pennsylvania this output has altered gas markets and repositioned pennsylvania as a major gas exporter it has also put pennsylvania at odds with other states as it is one of a few without a formal severance tax on extractive resources in this paper we combine results from a structural demand model with a two sector trade model to analyze the interstate welfare impacts of pennsylvania s current severance tax proposal our results demonstrate that most of the welfare losses from this proposed policy are likely to be shifted to residents in other states we also demonstrate how fluctuations in gas prices can substantially reduce tax revenue these findings have important implications for both pennsylvania and u s energy policy given the significant rise in energy production from new sources throughout the u s

growth and financial liberalization under capital collateral constraints the striking case of the stochastic ak model with cara preferences we consider a small open collateral constrained ak economy we show that the combination of cara preferences and uncertainty on capital inflows generates long term growth while the deterministic counterpart does not long term growth is entirely driven by precautionary savings and the asymptotic growth rate of the expected capital stock is increasing in both the risk magnitude and the arrow pratt absolute risk aversion parameters

technical change inter factor and inter fuel substitution possibilities in pakistan a trans log production function approach abstract energy consumption in pakistan increased significantly over the last two decades primarily due to industrialization in order to meet the growing energy needs the government adopted short term policies by setting up thermal power projects which are more expensive both in terms of fiscal cost and environmental damages as compared to hydro power projects the former has exposed pakistan to international oil price shocks and environmental degradations this study therefore attempts to analyze technical change using trans log production function by employing non energy factors i e capital and labor and energy factors i e petroleum and natural gas to estimate elasticity of substitution the purpose of the study is to provide policy suggestions to the government on how to achieve high economic growth vis a vis improved energy security and environmental sustainability the results reveal that capital energy and labor energy are substitutes thereby suggesting the need for an increased focus on technological advancement and skilled employment generation to conserve energy and reduce co 2 emission a gradual elimination of energy subsidies which will make energy price reflects its true cost is required to further discourage increased energy consumption and promote capital intensive production methods a scenario analysis based on the elasticity of substitution between capital energy and petroleum gas shows the potential of energy conservation and emission mitigation the results further suggest the importance of a diversified energy supply mix characterized by abundant hydro and other renewable energy resources alongside natural gas

china s energy economy technical change factor demand and interfactor interfuel substitution with its rapid economic growth china s primary energy consumption has exceeded domestic energy production since 1994 leading to a substantial expansion in energy imports particularly of oil china s energy demand has an increasingly significant impact on global energy markets in this paper allen partial elasticities of factor and energy substitution and price elasticities of energy demand are calculated for china using a two stage translog cost function approach the results suggest that energy is substitutable with both capital and labor coal is significantly substitutable with electricity and complementary with diesel while gasoline and electricity are substitutable with diesel china s energy intensity is increasing during the study period 1995 2004 and the major driver appears to be due to the increased use of energyintensive technology

major oecd country industrial sector interfuel substitution estimates 1960 1979 abstract a range of static and dynamic translog based expenditure shares models are estimated for non energy producing industrial sectors of the major seven countries of the oecd area sectoral energy volume and fuel efficiency bias variables are shown to be significant over and above individual prices in explaining individual fuel expenditure shares statistically significant own price and cross price elasticities of demand are presented for individual countries with some magnitudes varying considerably across alternative model specifications

on endogenous growth under uncertainty this paper incorporates uncertainty in two distinct models of endogenous growth in both models the representative agent is uncertain about the productivity of knowledge creation as represented by a probability measure over the relevant parameter the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of risk or volatility in productivity of knowledge creation on the decision variables and the expected long run growth rate both the first and the second models may explain part of the observed negative link between volatility and growth

interfuel substitution a meta analysis interfuel substitutability has been of longstanding interest to the energy economics and policy community however no quantitative meta analysis has yet been carried out of this literature this paper fills this gap by analyzing a broad sample of studies of interfuel substitution in the industrial sector manufacturing industry or subindustries or macro economy of a variety of developed and developing economies publication bias is controlled for by including the primary study sample size in the meta regression results for the shadow elasticities of substitution between coal oil gas and electricity for forty six primary studies show that at the level of the industrial sector there are easy substitution possibilities between all the fuel pairs with the exception of gas electricity and coal electricity substitution possibilities seem more constrained at the macro level and less constrained in sub industries estimates also vary across countries publication bias does not seem to be present but model and data specification issues very significantly affect the estimates derived by each individual study estimates from cross section regressions are generally largest fixed effects panel estimates intermediate in magnitude and time series estimates are mostly much smaller econometric research suggests that the fixed effects estimates are likely the best among the existing studies though biased downwards

a nested ces approach to capital energy substitution abstract this paper uses the nested constant elasticity of substitution ces production function to estimate elasticities of substitution between capital labour energy and materials over the 1971 1976 period around the initial energy crisis elasticities are estimated for each of the two digit sic industries within us manufacturing using more disaggregate four digit sic data the nested ces function makes it possible to distinguish between engineering and economic elasticities of substitution capital and energy are estimated to be slight engineering substitutes and economic complements labour energy and materials are estimated economic substitutes

macroeconomic policies growth and welfare in a stochastic economy an integrated stochastic equilibrium growth model is constructed and directed to various questions pertaining to monetary and tax policy two main issues addressed include 1 the tradeoff between the rate of capital accumulation and inflation in a stochastic environment and 2 economic welfare and optimal policy making the key result is that policy variables impact on welfare through their effect on the after tax nominal interest rate which therefore serves as an intermediate policy target the welfare maximizing interest rate target is derived and the author discusses its attainment through appropriate monetary and tax policies tradeoffs between policy instruments are also addressed copyright 1993 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

growth volatility and learning abstract this paper presents a simple stochastic growth model in which productivity improvements are the result of both internal deliberate and external serendipitous learning behaviour the model is used to illustrate how these different mechanisms of endogenous technological change can lead to different implications for the correlation between output growth and output variability

economic growth and the elasticity of substitution two theorems and some suggestions at the beginning of the twentieth century the work of the swedish economist knut wicksell 1901 marked an important advance in our understanding of the relationship between the structure of production functions and income distribution wicksell had asked the following question among many others suppose that the marginal productivities are equal to the remuneration rates of each factor what then should be the form of the corresponding production function he pointed out p 125 that the general integral of the partial differential equation implied by this relationship was of the form y lf kil which meant in turn that the product y was necessarily a homogeneous of degree one function of capital k and labor l as an example he gave a function where the shares of k and l in y were constant and wrote down the function which would be rediscovered decades later by charles w cobb and paul h douglas 1928 however it is only half a century later in robert m solow s nobel prize winning 1956 essay that implications between the structure of the production function and long run equilibrium or disequilibrium of the economy were drawn in his classic article a contribution to the theory of economic growth solow had considered three cases analytically other cases were also discussed geometrically using a phase diagram he had labeled the two first cases 1hlarrod domar and cobb douglas respectively and he referred to the third type of production function as offering a bit of variety it was y ak 2 l 2 2 a particular case of y akp lp 1p in those early days solow had not pointed out to the reader that his cases could have been numbered 0 1 and 2 following the elasticity of substitution of the corresponding production function it would be only five years later in 1961 that with his coauthors kenneth j arrow et al he would find the general form of the two factor constant elasticity of substitution ces production function by integrating the differential equation corresponding to the observed relationship between output per capita and the wage rate solow s third case was indeed highly interesting since it allowed the possibility of everincreasing income per head even without any technical progress indeed solow showed that due to the efficiency of the system entailed by the particular production function he had chosen there existed a threshold for the savings rates s to generate investment per head large enough for income per head to grow forever that threshold was s nla2 where n is the growth rate of the population it was then natural to ask whether one could express that threshold in terms of the elasticity of substitution a the value of that threshold was determined by de la grandville 1989 to be equal to s no3 or where a is k s coefficient in a normalized ces function equal to a in solow s third case where u 2 for any s and n values this relationship gives also the threshold value in implicit form by the solution of ao1 1 log 3q or ilog nls by totally differentiating the last relationship one could observe that the threshold for the elasticity of substitution to entail ever sustained growth was an in klump faculty of mathematics and economics university of ulm helmholtzstrasse 20 d 89081 ulm germany de la grandville department of economics university of geneva 102 boulevard carl vogt ch 1211 geneva 4 switzerland we gratefully acknowledge the comments of seminar participants at stanford university and at the universities of stuttgart hohenheim and munich where parts of the paper were presented also we would like to thank without implicating in any way robert solow for his insightful remarks and an anonymous referee for very helnfuil supgestions wicksell cobb and douglas would no doubt burst with pride if they knew that one of our first year students wrote in a paper of his of course we recognize here a kirk douglas production function

technological progress and energy rebound effect in china s textile industry evidence and policy implications abstract although energy efficiency improvement can reduce energy consumption reduction of the effective price will also increase the demand for energy services part of this reduction is then offset because of the energy efficiency improvement the magnitude of this energy rebound effect is one of the important factors that must be considered in the formulation and implementation of energy policies the textile industry is a traditional pillar industry in china it is an important part of the national economy and contributes significantly to international trade this study uses the morishima elasticities of substitution mes model combined with asymmetric energy prices trans log cost function and other econometric methods to establish a framework to measure the rebound effect in china s textile industry the empirical results of this paper indicate that the rebound effect for china s textile industry is 20 991 this reveals that energy efficiency improvement is conducive for energy saving to a certain degree notwithstanding these results also prove that energy efficiency improvement is not the only way for china s textile industry to realize energy saving and emission reduction finally based on the analysis future policy priorities are suggested

energy substitution effect on transport sector of pakistan based on trans log production function abstract transport sector because of the growing industrialization and urbanization of pakistan is one of fastest growing sector in terms of output energy consumption and co 2 emission its current performance and future outlook has the potential to leave behind problems related to the global issues of energy security and environmental sustainability the extents to which energy and non energy inputs are substitutable are the core issue in planning and designing of energy policies for this purpose we establish a trans log production function for pakistan transport sector and the input factors capital labor and energy are included output elasticities of each factor and the substitution elasticities between these factors have been estimated and analyzed for the sample period of 1980 2013 the results show higher output elasticity and that all pairs of factor inputs are substitutes because of the higher level of substitution elasticities the results suggest that by allocating more capital in the transport sector the relevant energy saving technology could be promoted thereby realizing the substitution between capital and energy and reduction of co 2 emission as a result it further suggest that by continuous upgrading of the capital substitution between energy and labor can also be achieved and the transition of pakistan transport sector from labor intensive to capital intensive can be realized

growth and risk how exposure to risk affects economic growth is a key issue in development this article quantifies both the ex ante and ex post effects of risk using long running panel data for rural households in zimbabwe it proposes a simulation based econometric methodology to estimate the structural form of a micro model of household investment decisions under risk the key finding is that risk substantially reduces growth in this particular setting the mean capital stock in the sample is in expectation 46 percent lower than in the absence of risk about two thirds of the impact of risk is due to the ex ante effect that is the behavioral response to risk which is usually not taken into account in policy design these results suggest that policy interventions that reduce exposure to shocks or that help households manage risk could be much more effective than is commonly thought

product innovation and the business cycle micreconomic data show two important facts about new products first some products are more important than others second it takes them years to penetrate the market significantly the authors calibrated model with these features overpredicts the autocovariance of u s gnp at long lags but underpredicts it at short lags the latter is not surprising since the model leaves out other obvious high frequency shocks the puzzle is why the u s gnp data do not show stronger autocorrelation at higher lags a surprising finding is that while the speed of diffusion has huge level effects it plays a minor role in shaping the business cycle copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

energy security and renewable energy policy analysis of pakistan abstract sustainable energy supply is an important factor for continued economic growth of any society pakistan is among those developing countries which are facing severe shortages of energy now a days the current and past governments in the country have designed various energy policies to fulfill energy demands but could not fill the demand supply gap there has been a shortage of about 5000 mw of electrical supply during summer 2016 a policy for development of renewable energy was framed in 2006 which was aimed to supply sustainable energy to all consumers including those households which have not been supplied electricity and natural gas in rural and far flung areas the policy was extended for implementation in 2011 and is still in use the basis of this policy rests on energy security and self sufficiency social equity and economic benefits this study aims at analyzing renewable energy policy of pakistan and examining and finding the ways to secure energy supplies in future using leap four scenarios business as usual green pakistan nuclear and optimization have been developed to assess the validity of the energy plans the study concludes that green pakistan scenario employing renewable energy technologies having minimum operation and externality costs is the most suitable option in future

the energy demand in the manufacturing sector of pakistan some further results abstract the purpose of this study was to re examine the role of energy in the manufacturing sector of pakistan using a partial equilibrium approach gl restricted cost function along with the factor demand equations were estimated using zellner s iterative procedure higher energy prices do not seem to adversely affect investment in capital substitution possibilities between energy and non energy inputs are very limited and therefore energy price hikes may directly affect the cost of production inter fuel cross price elasticities indicate that there are substitution possibilities between electricity and gas

fiscal policy inflation and the accumulation of risky capital the effect of government policies on the level of investment and inflation has become a major concern of policy makers in a number of industrial countries proposals to raise the level of business investment have included overall tax cuts tax incentives to spur investment and a reduction in the level of government spending this paper presents a theoretical apparatus to explore the relationships between fiscal policy government debt inflation and capital accumulation it develops a one sector growth model embodying a stochastic production function and government fiscal policy atomistic agents in the economy choose consumption levels and allocate their wealth between risky capital and risky government debt to maximize expected discounted utility over an infinite horizon fiscal policy by affecting asset yields affects the composition of portfolios the price of government bonds and the accumulation of capital the model is used to answer three general questions 1 does the level of government expenditure affect the rate of capital accumulation and inflation in steady state 2 does the mode of government finance when the choice is between an income tax and deficit finance affect these magnitudes 3 what is the effect of uncertainty in the productivity of capital on growth the analysis relates to several areas of literature 1 the analysis of the relationship between capital accumulation and debt 2 the theory of the demand for government debt 3 considerations of the effect of income taxation on risk bearing and 4 the analysis of capital accumulation under uncertainty 1 the effects on output and the capital stock of the government s expenditure decision and its decision to finance its expenditure by taxation or debt issue are explored in two major bodies of economic theory the literature on the burden of the debt as developed by modigliani 1961 diamond 1965 and phelps and shell 1969 for example implies that policies which increase the value of outstanding government debt will tend to lower the level of the capital stock by displacing capital with public debt in private wealth the theory of money and growth as represented by tobin 1965 and sidrauski 1967b also implies that government debt displaces capital but specifically recognizes the role of capital gains on government debt

a pooled dynamic analysis of interfuel substitution in industrial energy demand by the g 7 countries a dynamic version of considine s 1990 linear logit model is used to obtain theoretically consistent estimates of long run price elasticities from pooled intercountry data on industrial energy consumption this model also provides a rare direct estimate of the important rate of dynamic adjustment revealing a median lag of ten years the long run demands for oil and coal are the most elastic and the strongest channels for interfuel substitution are between oil and natural gas with no significant evidence of complementarity between fuels

the capital energy substitutability debate a new look over the last twenty years many studies have been made of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor the reported estimates are highly variable and reveal an apparent dichotomy between cross sectional and time series studies the former suggest that capital and energy are substitutes while the latter suggest the converse all these studies reported allen partial elasticities of substitution we suggest that the morishima elasticity may be a more useful measure for the issues of concern to capital energy substitution we calculate the morishima elasticities from parameters estimated in a selection of earlier studies and find no excessive variability nor any evidence of the time series cross section dichotomy capital and energy are morishima substitutes copyright 1995 by mit press

the effect of international dependence on income inequality and political violence recent studies of collective political violence have overlooked international causal factors this cross national study of 46 51 nations including analyses of influential cases expends on earlier analyses by simultaneously examining both the external international and the internal intranational determinants of collective political violence regression analysis suggests that transnational corporate penetration an international factor contributes to increased political violence both directly and indirectly through its effect on income inequality we conclude that theoretical and empirical integration of intraand international factors yields the most comprehensive explanation of the causes of collective political violence

divergence and convergence in international development a decomposition analysis of inequality in the world system the convergence hypothesis of conventional modernization theory suggests that the nations of the world are becoming more similar critics have argued that nations are diverging and becoming dissimilar over time this paper brings unique data analytic procedures and a world system perspective to bear on this debate we suggest that world system theory provides a framework for explaining the simultaneous occurrence of both convergence and divergence specifically the logic of world system theory suggests that divergence occurs between the three zones of nations core semiperiphery and periphery whereas convergence occurs within them with respect to economic development our analyses indicate that predictions concerning divergence were partially supported and predictions concerning convergence held only for the core trends within the periphery and semiperiphery question the utility of world system theory

engineering and econometric interpretations of energy capital complementarity comment in a recent paper in this review ernst berndt and david wood provide a useful clarification of gross and net complementarity pointing out that energy and capital can be gross substitutes in a production subfunction and yet net complements in the aggregate production function using this theoretical proposition they attempt to reconcile the econometric findings of energy capital complementarity with other studies finding energy capital substitutability their reconciliation rests on the finding that those studies finding energy capital substitutability considered only capital k labor l and energy e by omitting materials m one obtains only a gross elasticity the net elasticity which allows for the additional substitution between the kle aggregate and m can indicate energy capital complementarity in fact klem studies generally find energy and capital complementarity the purpose of this comment is to question whether the net and the gross elasticity distinction provides such a reconciliation among the econometric results i agree that this explanation tends to reduce the disparity between the original berndt wood elasticity estimate and griffin gregory yet three independent sources of evidence suggest that the omission of m is not a sufficient explanation and probably not even a major explanation for the disparity of findings first the difference between the gross elasticity in a kle submodel and the net elasticity in a klem model depends critically on the elasticity of substitution between m and kle let us adopt the berndt wood notation and consider their mathematical example which demonstrates the possibility of gross capital energy substitutability as in the griffin gregory study with net capital energy complementarity

periphery revolutions in world system perspective 1821 1985 periphery revolutions from 1821 to 1985 are surveyed in light of the world system perspective theoretical propositions regarding secular trends and cycles are tested for revolutionary activity and success revolution is shown to vary with the trends as well as the rhythms world leadership cycle and kondratieff longwaves of the world system although an upward trend in revolutionary activity is observable no such growth of revolutionary success is evidenced revolutionary activity increases during kondratieff upswings revolutionary success is more common during the deconcentration phase of the world leadership cycle the implications of the findings for world system stability are discussed

r d expenditure in g7 countries and the implications for endogenous fluctuations and growth abstract the literature on endogenous growth cycles predicts countercyclical r d expenditure aggregate r d expenditure in g7 countries from 1973 to 2000 tends to be procyclical implications for future theoretical research are discussed

estimated substitution elasticities of a nested ces production function approach for germany this paper demonstrates an econometric estimation of substitution elasticities of a nested constant elasticity of substitution production function ces between capital energy and labour for the west german industry in the last few years ces production functions have become more important in economic modelling especially for applied general equilibrium models where ces production functions are an important building stone in the literature different results of estimated elasticities can be found this paper investigates three different approaches for nested ces production functions and their estimated substitution elasticities capital energy and labour are estimated as substitutes for the west german industry in the long run

insurance and climate driven extreme events abstract we investigate how insurance affects agents decisions when being faced by endogenous climate driven extreme events this is not only important in order to understand how the possibility of insurance augments mitigation and saving decisions but it also improves our understanding of how insurance should be provided since there are no studies as of now that rely on such an integrated approach we extend the literature along two lines firstly we develop a neoclassical growth framework with endogenous extreme events and an insurance sector secondly we introduce a simulation method that allows us to explicitly take these extreme events into account and which yields additional numerical insights in doing so we can fully characterize and quantify the impact of different insurance policies for mitigation and economic growth decisions our analytical results and computational experiments show that i transparency of the insurance sector is the decisive requisite for abatement activities implying substantial policy opportunities ii a decentralized economy will under invest in abatement without adequate policy interventions iii precautionary beliefs on the frequency of extreme events lead to more sustainability iv a social security system which prices insurance fairly is preferable to an insurance industry which provides insurance with an overhead

ballots and bullets election riots in the periphery 1874 1985 modernisation theory argues that the liberal institutions of the industrialised or core nations have taken root in underdeveloped or periphery ones and produced the pacific flowers of political development critics of the theory however are less sanguine suggesting that core institutions represent foreign imports into the periphery and are viable only when closely managed by core authorities the study tracks election riots in the periphery between 1874 and 1985 an upward trend in rioting is observable further riots occur more frequently during periods of loose control by the core the implications for global liberalism are then discussed

optimal saving under poisson uncertainty abstract this paper studies optimal saving and investment behaviour of a household that can either invest in a riskless or a risky saving technology when risk results from a poisson process the focus is on behaviour of households in a general equilibrium setup poisson processes are introduced since they allow us to understand and model endogenous cycles jointly with long run growth it turns out that a very simple intuitive and tractable characterization of equilibrium is possible journal of economic literature classification numbers c61 o33 o41

assessing a disaggregated energy input using confidence intervals around translog elasticity estimates the role of energy in the production of manufacturing output has been debated extensively in the literature particularly its relationship with capital and labor in an attempt to provide some clarification in this debate a two step methodology was used first under the assumption of a five factor production function specification we distinguished between electric and non electric energy and assessed each component s relationship with capital and labor second we calculated both the allen and price elasticities and constructed 95 confidence intervals around these values our approach led to the following conclusions that the disaggregation of the energy input into electric and non electric energy is justified that capital and electric energy and capital and non electric energy are substitutes while labor and electric energy and labor and non electric energy are complements in production and that capital and energy are substitutes while labor and energy are complements

reduction potential of co2 emissions in china s transport industry newhuadu business school research fund china sustainable energy program g 1311 19436 ministry of education 10 jbg 013 national social science foundation of china 71203186

delving into liberia s energy economy technical change inter factor and inter fuel substitution abstract the industrial energy mix of liberia is dominated by petroleum products this has generated serious environmental problems contributing immensely to co 2 emissions and other pollutants in the country this study has attempted to investigate the potential for inter factor and inter fuel substitution between capital labor petroleum and electricity in liberia by employing a translog production and cost function approach ridge regression procedure has been adopted to estimate the parameters of the function due to multicollinearity in the data estimation results show that all inputs are substitutes these suggest that price based policies coupled with capital subsidy programs can be adopted to redirect technology use towards cleaner energy sources like electricity hence retaining the ability to fuel the economy while also mitigating greenhouse gas ghg emissions substitution between energy and labor and energy and capital implies that removal of price ceilings on energy in liberia would tend to reduce energy use and increase capital and labor intensiveness notwithstanding the study seems to show no evidence of convergence in relative technological progress of the four inputs implying that petroleum will continue to play a dominant role in the energy consumption mix of liberian industry while labor investment will continue to outweigh capital inputs finally the findings of this study provide general insights and underscore the importance of policies that focus on installed capacity of renewable electricity energy intensity targets as well as merger of enterprises

endogenous product cycles we construct a model of the product cycle featuring endogenous innovation and endogenous technology transfer competitive entrepreneurs in the north expend resources to bring out new products whenever expected present discounted value of future oligopoly profits exceeds current product development costs each northern oligopolist continuously faces the risk that its product will be copied by a southern imitator at which time its profit stream will come to an end in the south competitive entrepreneurs may devote resources to learning the production processes that have been developed in the north there too costs of reverse engineering must be covered by a stream of operating profits we study the determinants of the long run rate of growth of the world economy and the long run rate of technological diffusion we also provide an analysis of the effects of exogenous events and of public policy on relative wage rates in the two regions

the economic determinants of technology shocks in a real business cycle model abstract creative destruction due to new technologies causes both long run growth and short run business fluctuations new technologies push the economy on a higher productivity level but also imply partial obsolescence of old production units obsolescence induces an adjustment period during which growth rates gradually fall at some endogenously determined point research for the next technology starts once the new technology is discovered a technology shock occurs and the next cycle starts this is shown in a continuous time rbc model with risk averse agents where savings can be used for financing deterministic capital accumulation and stochastic r d for new technologies

an empirical refinement of the relationship between growth and volatility the link between business cycle volatility and the long run growth rate has received increasing attention in the literature over the last ten years yet neither is there a theoretical consensus nor consistent empirical evidence that would lead us to believe the relationship is positive negative or nonexistent either within broadly defined regions or over time this study investigates a possible cause for this phenomenon what we find is that out of 14 popularly defined sub regions only 7 can be constrained over time within the respective sub region while only two broadly defined regional classifications are justified we did find that the grouping of oecd countries is statistically valid but only if the relationship is allowed to vary over time we suggest a refinement of the current empirical work that takes into account both more narrowly defined regional and time parametric heterogeneity

economic development on a finite planet with stochastic soil degradation abstract world economic development is associated with growing food consumption agricultural land however suffers from over exploitation and is subject to environmental shocks which are projected to become more severe due to climate change we present a stochastic model of a dynamic economy where soil is an essential input and natural disasters are sizeable multiple and random expansion of economic activities raises effective soil units but contributes to an aggregate loss of soil protective ecosystem services which exacerbates soil degradation at the time of a shock we provide closed form analytical solutions and show that optimal development is characterized by a constant growth rate of stocks and consumption until an environmental shock arrives causing all variables to jump downwards optimal soil management consists of spending a constant fraction of output on preservation measures which is an increasing function of the shocks hazard rate degradation intensity of agricultural practices and the damage intensity of environmental impact we derive the optimal propensity to save and discuss the impact of human pressure and risk exposure on soil and output we also discuss quantitative impacts of climate change on optimal soil management

output elasticities and inter factor substitution empirical evidence from the transportation sector of shanghai abstract as a major consumer of fossil fuels the transportation sector in shanghai presents a wide range of problems including air pollution noise and traffic congestion this study aims to explore the energy substitution effect based on a trans log production function to evaluate the contribution of each input factor to sectoral output and reveal the substitution possibilities between capital labor and energy to deal with a multicollinearity problem we adopt ridge regression to obtain the coefficient of each variable under the appropriate penalty value the bootstrap method is used for making statistical inferences and the 95 confidence interval is obtained with 1000 bootstrap samples the empirical results demonstrate the following 1 the output elasticities of capital 0 13 0 15 labor 0 24 0 25 and energy 0 43 0 48 are positive and show an increasing trend over the study period 2 the substitution elasticity between labor and energy is the highest among the input factors around 1 0095 with a slight decreasing trend 3 the substitution elasticity between energy and capital ranges from 1 0018 to 1 0021 and the substitution elasticity between capital and labor is infinitely close to 1

stochastic growth under wiener and poisson uncertainty the expected growth rate of a stochastic ak economy under poisson uncertainty is derived the differences and similarities of economic growth under wiener and poisson uncertainty are discussed to understand the uncertainty growth nexus the implicit risk premium under poisson uncertainty is additionally derived

industrial sector interfuel substitution following the first major oil shock abstract strict conditions for a two stage translog expenditure shares model are violated a single stage homothetic symmetry equality model is rejected in favour of a non homothetic equality model international own price elasticities derived from the latter for oil gas coal and electricity are 0 26 0 81 0 97 and 0 02 little changed from 0 24 0 71 1 35 and 0 09 for the former

production technologies in stochastic continuous time models abstract properties of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models can be revealed by either using numerical solutions or qualitative analysis very precise and intuition building results are obtained by working with models which provide closed form solutions closed form solutions are known for a large class of models some of which however have some undesirable features such as potentially negative output this paper offers closed form solutions for models which are just as tractable but do not suffer from these shortcomings

cross country evidence on the link between volatility and growth this paper presents empirical evidence against the standard dichotomy in macroeconomics that separates growth from the volatility of economic fluctuations in a sample of ninety two countries as well as a sample of oecd countries the authors find that countries with higher volatility have lower growth the addition of standard control variables strengthens the negative relationship the authors also find that government spending induced volatility is negatively associated with growth even after controlling for both time and country fixed effects copyright 1995 by american economic association