causes of the forward bias non rational expectations versus risk premia the sources of the systematic forward bias in the foreign exchange market are sought a theoretical framework based on some well known international parity conditions is developed in order to derive testable hypotheses these are a only risk premia account for the observed deviations between forward and future sport rate c anticipated real exchange rate changes explain part of the bias the provided evidence is not consistent with any of these hypotheses which in turn implies that part of the bias may be due to non rational expectations

methodical madness technical analysis and the irrationality of exchange rate forecasts substantial empirical research documents that exchange rate forecasts are not formed rationally this paper identifies a common technical trading signal the head and shoulders pattern as a potential source of departures from rationality in exchange rate forecasts forecasts based on this pattern are evaluated for daily dollar exchange rates over 1973 to 1994 using two criteria for rationality profitability and efficiency resulting profits replicable in real time are tested for statistical significance using a bootstrap technique we find that the rule is profitable but not efficient since it is dominated by simpler trading rules

reconciling the advantages and liabilities of foreignness towards an identity based framework this article leverages identity theory to address the question of when and how foreignness acts as an advantage and liability for the mne subsidiary applying an organizational identity lens i delineate how subsidiaries manage their foreignness by accentuating and attenuating internal and external organizational attributes drawing on this conceptualization i theorize how an accentuated foreign identity moderates context specific advantages and liabilities in offering a more nuanced understanding of how subsidiaries actively manage their foreignness and its contextual implications an identity based framework helps to both explain and reconcile the advantages and liabilities of foreignness

rational expectations as long run equilibria tests for indian securities abstract it is recommended that the standard bias test for muth rational expectations should be augmented in the form of a dynamic model amongst other advantages this approach permits the researcher to test unbiasedness as a long run equilibrium of the underlying dynamic adjustment process relating expectations to realizations the approach is applied to a new data set on traders expectations in the madras stock exchange although bias is generally found in the short run the long run equilibrium is consistent with rational expectations in about half the cases studied significant steady state biases are indicated for the remainder

are outcomes driving expectations or the other way around an i 2 cvar analysis of interest rate expectations in the dollar pound market abstract this paper uses consensus forecasts to address empirical puzzles in international macro using the cointegrated var model the data consisting of three month libor rates their three month ahead forecasts prices and exchange rates for the us and uk were all found to be near i 2 consistent with imperfect knowledge expectations the i 2 analysis showed that over the medium run the nominal exchange rate has moved away from equilibrium values with interest rates following suit whereas over the long run the nominal exchange rate was adjusting while the interest rate forecasts pushed the system away from steady state evidence of self reinforcing feedback mechanisms in the system signals the importance of speculative bubbles for the determination of the exchange rate and the interest rates

the use of flow analysis in foreign exchange exploratory evidence abstract this paper provides questionnaire evidence on the role of flow analysis for professional traders and fund managers this evidence suggests that besides fundamental information and technical analysis the analysis of flows provides an independent third type of information for professionals the view that flows can be used to learn about fundamentals is not consistent with the data instead evidence indicates that flows more likely provide insight into semi fundamental private information

predictability in financial markets what do survey expectations tell us abstract there is widespread evidence of excess return predictability in financial markets for the foreign exchange market a number of studies have documented that the predictability of excess returns is closely related to the predictability of expectational errors of excess returns in this paper we investigate the link between the predictability of excess returns and expectational errors in a much broader set of financial markets using data on survey expectations of market participants in the stock market the foreign exchange market the bond market and money markets in various countries the results are striking first in markets where there is significant excess return predictability expectational errors of excess returns are predictable as well with the same sign and often even with similar magnitude this is the case for foreign exchange stock and bond markets second in the only market where excess returns are generally not predictable the money market expectational errors are not predictable either these findings suggest that an explanation for the predictability of excess returns must be closely linked to an explanation for the predictability of expectational errors

a note on exchange rate expectations and nominal interest differentials a test of the fisher hypothesis this note tests the hypothesis that nominal interest differentials between similar assets denominated in different currencies can be explained entirely by the expected change in the exchange rate over the holding period this proposition often called the fisher open hypothesis or the hypothesis of perfect asset substitutability has been a major component of recent theories of exchange rate determination and has important implications for monetary policy 1 the fisher hypothesis differs from the covered interest parity theorem enunciated by keynes 11 while covered interest parity equates the nominal interest differential between financial centers to a known premium or discount on forward foreign exchange and is thus in principle riskless fisher parity involves risk in an essential way the two conditions are equivalent only when forward exchange rates equal expected future spot rates recent theoretical work for example that of grauer litzenberger and stehle 8 kouri 12 and frankel 6 shows that this need not be the case when market participants are risk averse thus while covered interest parity must always hold exactly in an informationally efficient asset market with no transactions costs fisher parity need not nominal interest differentials may reflect risk premia in addition to expected exchange rate movements 2 it should be emphasized at the outset that the tests conducted in this paper are really joint tests of the fisher hypothesis and a weak form of foreign exchange market informational efficiency levich 14 has argued that tests of market efficiency are always joint tests involving some hypothesized structure of normal equilibrium returns below we assume informational efficiency and instead test fisher s hypothesized arbitrage condition that nominal interest differentials equal expected percentage changes in exchange rates

managing the mne subsidiary advancing a multi level and dynamic research agenda abstract multinational enterprise mne subsidiaries abroad are important organizations in their own rights they typically hold some of the mne s most critical resources and operate at the forefront of complex international environments in this review we identify and organize theoretical and empirical research on subsidiary management based on over 600 articles in leading academic journals we develop a conceptual framework that integrates complementary streams of theoretical and empirical research with the subsidiary as its focal unit of analysis in particular we review six lines of research on subsidiary scope practices knowledge management engagement with local market and nonmarket actors performance and individuals within subsidiaries we highlight theoretical perspectives that have contributed to and been advanced by research on mne subsidiaries based on the review we explore future research agendas linking the contemporary research themes with two main thrusts first subsidiary management is a multi level phenomenon that would benefit from more microfoundational research second subsidiary management operates at key interfaces of technology paradigm shifts and of disruptions in the political and institutional environment research into the dynamics of subsidiary management would thus enhance our understanding of international business in a volatile global economy

information rigidities and exchange rate expectations abstract sluggish adjustment of expectations to new information is rational in an environment characterized by information costs and signal to noise problems this paper investigates the role of such information rigidities for exchange rate expectations using data from consensus economics for ten emerging and industrial economies from 1999 until 2015 our results confirm the importance of rigidities and show that the inclusion of forecast updates largely accounts for otherwise detected biases in expectation errors moreover we find little evidence for a systematic effect of fundamentals or uncertainty measures on exchange rate disagreement

expectation formation mechanisms profitability of foreign exchange trading and exchange rate volatility an attempt is made to identify the expectation formation mechanism dominating the foreign exchange market and to demonstrate that exchange rate volatility can be attributed to the heterogeneity of traders with respect to expectation formation the criterion used to identify the dominance of a particular mechanism is the profitability of trading based on that mechanism it is concluded that mixed and extrapolative expectations are the dominant mechanisms that market participants follow some sort of a herd behaviour and that they pay attention to the expectations of other participants it is also found that the heterogeneity of market participants with respect to expectation formation goes a long way towards explaining volatility

using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations superior to the forward rate in that no risk premium interferes we estimate extrapolative adaptive and regressive models of expectations static or random walk expectations and bandwagon expectations are rejected current appreciation generates the expectation of future depreciation because variables other than the contemporaneous spot rate receive weight in comparing expectations to the process governing the spot rate we find statistically significant bias no variable is as ubiquitous in international financial theory and yet as elusive empirically as investors expectations regarding exchange rates in the past expectations have been modeled in an ad hoc way often by using the forward exchange rate there is however a serious problem with using the forward discount as the measure of the expected change in the exchange rate in that the two may not be equal the gap that may separate the forward discount and expected depreciation is generally interpreted as a risk premium most of the large empirical literature testing the unbiasedness of the forward exchange rate for example has found it necessary either arbitrarily to assume away the existence of the risk premium if the aim

are survey forecasts trusted american trade account deficit and yen dollar rate abstract heterogenous expectations are considered to be reflected by strategic intention or wishful thinking and or by private information using survey data of the tokyo foreign exchange market tests are performed to determine whether heterogenous expectations contain private information

the carry trade and fundamentals nothing to fear but feer itself the carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high yield target currencies and short in low yield funding currencies recently this nave trade has seen very high returns for long periods followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies based on low sharpe ratios and negative skew these trades could appear unattractive even when diversied across many currencies but more sophisticated conditional trading strategies exhibit more favorable payos we apply novel within economics binary outcome classication tests to show that our directional trading forecasts are informa tive and out of sample loss function analysis to examine trading performance the critical conditioning variable we argue is the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate feer expected returns are lower all else equal when the target currency is overvalued like traders researchers should incorporate this information when evaluating trading strategies when we do so some questions are resolved negative skewness is purged and market volatility vix is uncorrelated with returns other puzzles remain the more sophisticated strategy has a very high sharpe ratio suggesting market ineciency

institutional theory and mnc subsidiary hrm practices evidence from a three country study this study sets out to explore human resource management hrm practices in multinational corporation mnc subsidiaries within an institutional theory framework based on a sample of 158 subsidiaries of mncs operating in the united states russia and finland the paper examines factors hypothesised to influence the hrm practices adapted in us japanese and european mnc subsidiaries located in russia finland and the us the results indicate significant differences in hrm practices used across host countries both the status of the subsidiary human resource department and the degree to which the subsidiary was involved in knowledge transfer with other parts of the mnc had a significant impact on the selection of hrm practices

exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists this paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately these groups indeed form expectations differently chartists change their expectations more often however all professionals expectations vary considerably as they generally follow strong exchange rate trends in line with non linear exchange rate modeling professionals expect mean reversion only if exchange rates deviate much from ppp chartists survive in fx markets as they forecast equally accurately as fundamentalists unexpected from an effcient market viewpoint chartists even outperform fundamentalists at short horizons overall these findings clearly support the chartist fundamentalist approach

probing theoretically into central and eastern europe transactions resources and institutions since the 1990s central and eastern europe cee has provided unique societal quasi experiments which represent opportunities to test the applicability of existing theories in international business and management studies and to develop new ones specifically three lines of theorising have been advanced 1 organisational economics theories 2 resource based theories and 3 institutional theories for each of these theories we discuss how they contribute to the understanding of key issues such as entry strategies of foreign investors restructuring strategies of local incumbents and entry and growth strategies of entrepreneurs on this basis we assess how cee research has influenced the overall trajectories of theory development cee research has in particular highlighted the importance of contextual influences such as institutions thus scholars have aimed at incorporating institutions into theories such as organisational economics theories and resource based theories and advancing an institution based view of business strategy as a complementary perspective we outline how future research in cee and other emerging economies may advance this research agenda further

exchange rate expectations and functional misspecification the authors employ the cooley prescott adaptive model to examine for functional misspecification in three commonly used exchange rate expectation models they also test for heterogeneity among forecasts the authors find no serious misspecification problem but some heterogeneity in expectations these test results are confirmed by various other regression specification tests copyright 1994 by mit press

international interest rate linkages and the exchange rate regime abstract return differentials between instruments denominated in canadian dollars and instruments denominated in american dollars are investigated the study compares the properties of return differentials in the period of fixed exchange rates during the 1960s and in the period of flexible exchange rates during the 1970s and 1980s both real and nominal return differentials are investigated the results indicate that the change in exchange rate regime is not associated with a change in the average level of ex post return differentials between canada and the united states models which predict ex ante return differentials from available information in a rational expectations framework show a surprisingly large amount of structural stability across the regime change the major impact of the flexible exchange rate regime is on the variance of ex post return differentials and not on the average level of ex post or ex ante return differentials jel e42 e58 g15

predicting currency fluctuations and crises do resident firms have an informational advantage the authors investigate whether resident enterprise managers have an informational advantage about the countries in which they work they propose a method for extracting information available to resident managers but unknown to investors and forecasters they rest their hypothesis of informational advantage using a unique data set the global competitiveness survey the survey asks local managers about their outlook for the country in which they reside they find that local managers do have useful private information local managers responses improve on conventional forecasts of future volatility and changes in the exchange rate which are based on economic fundamentals or interest rate differentials they find that the local business community perceived in advance the recent crises in the republic of korea russia and thailand but not those in indonesia and malaysia markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates

crossvergence 10 years on impact and further potential the 1997 jibs paper by ralston holt terpstra and yu was instrumental in anchoring and extending the construct of crossvergence in cross cultural research ten years on the paper has lost none of its relevance and continues to offer important opportunities for further theory development and attendant empirical research scope for further work seems to exist especially in three areas the meaning of crossvergence national culture and economic ideology and processes of change

the time series properties of the risk premium in the yen dollar exchange market summary in this paper a var model is employed to construct a measure of the conditional expectations of the future yen dollar spot rate this measure allows us to examine the dynamics of an ex ante time series for the risk premium in the market the var model produces better forecasts than the survey responses for turbulent periods such as 1981 1982 and 1984 1985 the var generated expectations are then used to construct a risk premium time series this risk premium ieerie series seems to be more reliable than the ones obtained using either survey data on expectations of the future spot exchange rate or the ex post realized spot exchange rate tests on the risk premium series suggest that a risk premium was present but that it was virtually constant throughout the sample the conditional variance of the risk premium changed over time but its unconditional distribution seemed stable across subsamples despite these features the volatility of the series was substantial and varied considerably throughout the sample

on the consistency of short run and long run exchange rate expectations abstract this paper examines whether short term exchange rate expectations overreact by comparing them with long term expectations we develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons the restrictions impose consistency a property weaker than rationality we use exchange rate survey data to measure expectations and then test whether consistency holds the data show that a current positive exchange rate shock leads investors to expect a higher long run future spot rate when iterating forward their short term expectations than when thinking directly about the long run in this sense short horizon expectations may overreact to current exchange rate changes

modes of theorizing in strategic human resource management tests of universalistic contingency and configurational performance predictions the field of strategic human resource management shrm has been criticized for lacking a solid theoretical foundation this article documents that contrary to this criticism the shrm literature

market efficiency and cointegration an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets abstract the assumption that the foreign exchange market is efficient that is that agents are risk neutral and use all available information rationally so that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate is a property often imposed in theoretical international macroeconomic models although a vast empirical literature has evolved to test market efficiency we use recent developments in the theory of cointegration to provide new methods of testing several aspects of foreign exchange market efficiency we ffind evidence inconsistent with market efficiency for both germany and the united kingdom

insider ownership human resource strategies and performance in a transition economy researchers and potential investors in transition economies need to understand the human resource management hrm strategies of target firms since human resources are arguably their most valuable assets understanding is difficult however because hrm strategies help to determine firms performance but are in turn influenced by corporate governance particularly insider ownership this paper employs a structural equation modeling methodology to examine the relations between governance hrm strategies and performance in the context of a novel dataset of ukrainian industrial firms it is found that insider ownership is positively associated with high commitment hrm strategies and negatively with low commitment cost cutting hrm strategies cost cutting hrm strategies are in turn associated with weaker firm performance these outcomes correspond broadly with theoretical expectations

on the internal consistency of short term medium term and long term oil price forecasts we derive internal consistency restrictions on short medium and long term oil price forecasts we then analyse whether oil price forecasts extracted from the survey of professional forecasters spf conducted by the european central bank ecb satisfy these internal consistency restrictions we find that neither short term forecasts are consistent with medium term forecasts nor that medium term forecasts are consistent with long term forecasts using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure however we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of medium term forecasts with long term forecasts

an assessment of the measurement of performance in international business research a sizeable body of international business ib research is devoted to building knowledge about the determinants of organizational performance a key precursor to accurately diagnosing why some organizations succeed in the international marketplace while others struggle is operationalizing performance appropriately yet to date no systematic investigation has considered how well ib research measures performance we examine the measurement of performance in 96 articles published in the academy of management journal administrative science quarterly journal of marketing journal of marketing research journal of international business studies management science organization science a nd thestrategic management journal between 1995 and 2005 the findings reveal that most studies do not measure performance in a manner that captures the multifaceted nature of the construct we describe the implications of these results and offer suggestions for improving future practice journal of international business studies 2008 39 1064 1080

are foreign exchange forecasts rational an empirical note abstract this paper uses survey data drawn from a high inflation economy israel to directly test the rationality of foreign exchange forecasts the empirical evidence indicates that exchange rate expectations are not rational in the muthian sense

tail risk concerns everywhere we show that the beta with respect to an index of global ex ante tail risk concerns x1d53e x1d540 x1d54f which we construct using out of the money options on multiple global assets negatively drives cross sectional return variations across asset classes including international equity indices foreign currencies and government bond futures the pricing power of x1d53e x1d540 x1d54f becomes stronger when more asset class level tail risk concerns are incorporated in the index construction x1d53e x1d540 x1d54f also dominates asset class level tail risk concerns in pricing assets within each asset class these evidences imply that the pricing effect of tail risk concerns works predominantly as a global channel the x1d53e x1d540 x1d54f pricing effect is distinct from that of tail risk factors based on historical realizations consistent with the interpretation that tail risk concerns likely reflect investors ex ante subjective belief about tail risk this paper was accepted by neng wang finance

rational expectations in the foreign exchange market some survey evidence this paper uses a survey data set that includes a large cross section of currencies to test for the rationality of expectations in the foreign exchange market two standard tests are applied to the data first a test to determine if investors make systematic forecast errors second a test to determine if investors use all available information efficiently when they make their forecasts this paper s data set involves a more recent time period which saw more quiescent exchange rate changes than the 1980s this paper finds that participants in the foreign exchange market do make systematic forecast errors and do not always use all available information when forecasting this conclusion is similar to past research but is now extended to a broader range of currencies and more recent time period

exchange rate models and exchange rate expectations an empirical investigation a non parametrictest of popular modern exchange rate models under alternative expectation specifications is presented it is found that there is little difference in the predictive success of the alternative exchange rate models however there are significant differences in the performance of a model depending upon the expectations mechanism specified our most important finding is that the flexible price monetary model the portfolio balance model and a hybrid model under extrapolative and adaptive expectations mechanisms provide statistically significant information about the direction of exchange rate movements by contrast the same models when employing static regressive and rational expectation mechanisms do not provideany satistically significant information

volume volatility and the dispersion of beliefs i examine a two period noisy rational expectations model of a futures market and show that the dispersion of expectations about a weighted average of future prices measures both the additional volatility and the additional expected volume of trade associated with noisy information the role played by dispersion helps clarify several stylized facts concerning volume and price behavior specifically dispersion can be a factor contributing to the positive correlation between volume and absolute price changes and the positive correlation between consecutive absolute price changes article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

tests of rational expectations and no risk premium in forward exchange markets abstract this paper tests the simple efficiency hypothesis i e that traders have rational expectations and charge no risk premium in the forward exchange market it uses a statistical procedure which is consistent under a large class of heteroscedasticity and a set of data which takes into account the institutional features of the forward exchange market the results show that this procedure leads to stronger rejections of the simple efficiency hypothesis than do procedures using the standard assumption of homoscedasticity

inefficiency of foreign exchange markets and expectations survey evidence in recent years the finding of a bias has cast doubts on the efficiency of the forward exchange market a large survey of exchange rate expectations in the danish market shows that this inefficiency is mainly due to risk aversion in the market the results contradict the findings of surveys of us and uk forward exchange markets where contribution from biased expectations has been large

the impact of natural culture and economic ideology on managerial work values a study of the united states russia japan and china this study assesses the impact of economic ideology and national culture on the individual work values of managers in the united states russia japan and china the convergence divergence crossvergence cdc framework was used as theoretical framework for the study while the schwartz value survey svs was used to operationalize over investigation of managerial work values across these four countries the findings largely support the crossvergence prospective while also confirming the role of national culture implications from the findings are drawn for the convergence divergence crossvergence of values as well as for the feasibility of multidomestic or global strategies for a corporate culture

testing the rationality of exchange rate and interest rate expectations an empirical study of australian survey based expectations this paper examines the rationality of the australian survey based expectations 1 and 4 week ahead us a exchange rate and 2 and 4 week ahead australian 90 day bank bill and 10 year bond rates the actual and expected variables are found to be cointegrated indicating that the expected future values and the future realizations of the exchange rate and interest rates have long run equilibrium relationships ols estimations with the newey west corrections are employed for testing the unbiased expectations hypothesis ueh where the frequency of the expectations data is finer than the forecast horizons and the exponential garch models that take into account the time varying nature of the forecasterror variance are employed for testing the weak rational expectations hypothesis wreh the evidence shows that the wreh could not be rejected in any case except for the two week ahead forecast of the 90 day interest rate which indicates that all available information is used at the time of forming relevant

differential interpretation of information in inflation forecasts we test the hypothesis associated with a standard assumption in the theoretical literature on learning that economic agents interpret information identically we use a data set based on a survey o

do dollar forecasters believe too much in ppp this article extends earlier studies on exchange rate expectations formation by using new data and adding information about forecasters reliance on fundamental analysis for the first time we replicate the conventional result of nonrational expectations moreover biases in expectations are identified as professionals significantly believe too much in mean reversion mean being represented by purchasing power parity ppp when respondents are grouped on their reliance to fundamental analysis fundamentalists reveal an even stronger bias those who rely the least on fundamentals preferring technical analysis instead show a significantly smaller bias towards ppp in lieu of expecting too much trend extrapolation biased beliefs will grow stronger when the us dollar is further away from ppp finally the accuracy of the expectations is poor for both groups however we find directional forecasting ability

strategic orientations incentive plan adoptions and firm performance evidence from electric utility firms this study examines the performance implications of the fit between strategic orientations and incentive plan characteristics research hypotheses are based on a framework that draws upon managerial discretion and agency theories to identify the links between firm strategy managerial motivation and control managerial risk bearing and incentive plan characteristics a pooled cross sectional time series research design is used to test hypotheses in a sample of 50 electric utility firms consistent with theory results indicate that annual bonus plans that use cash incentives and accounting measures of performance lead to better performance among firms with defender strategic orientations in contrast firms with prospector strategic orientations realize performance benefits when they adopt stock based incentive plans and use market measures to evaluate managerial performance 1997 john wiley sons ltd

are foreign exchange forecasts rational new evidence from survey data abstract tests of rationality in foreign exchange markets have been inconclusive because of disagreement over the relevant asset pricing model this paper uses a newly available set of data on foreign exchange expectations to directly test the rationality of four foreign currency markets overall the results reject the rational expectations hypothesis

measuring performance of international joint ventures international joint ventures ijvs are increasing in frequency and strategic importance however efforts to identify variables associated with ijv performance have been constrained by disagreements regarding the comparability and reliability of alternative performance measures and methods this study tests several hypotheses regarding the reliability and comparability of a range of objective and subjective measures of ijv performance as well as evaluating the relative utility of different data collection approaches

rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets abstract this paper tests the rational expectations hypothesis reh and the market efficiency hypothesis meh in the foreign exchange markets using survey data on expectations our results show that the spot exchange rates expected exchange rates and the forward rates all follow a random walk process hence the cointegration theory is employed to test the reh and meh all the test statistics support the reh but fail to support the meh we use survey data on expectations to identify the causes behind this failure of the meh jel f31 g14

heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen dollar forward exchange rate market this paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen dollar market using micro survey data conventional tests of unbiasedness do not correspond directly to the zero profit condition instead we use the survey data to calculate potential profits of individual forecasters based on a natural trading rule we find that although the survey data are not the best predictor of future spot rates in terms of typical mean square forecast error criteria the survey data can be used to obtain on average positive profits however these profits are small and highly variable similar results are found when we examine profits generated by a trading rule using regression forecasts the profits are found to be correlated with risk type variables but not other available information

foreign exchange rate expectations micro survey data this paper analyzes the panel data of biweekly surveys on the yen dollar exchange rate expectations of forty four institutions for two years and contains four major findings first market participants are heterogeneous that is significant individual effects exist in their expectation formation second the individual effects have a characteristic of wishful expectations exporters expect yen depreciation and importers expect yen appreciation relative to others third many violate the rational expectations hypothesis fourth forecasts with long horizons show less yen appreciation than those with short horizons cross equation constraints implied by the consistency of the forecast term structure are strongly rejected in the data copyright 1990 by american economic association

high performance work systems in foreign subsidiaries of american multinationals an institutional model this study examines the implementation of high performance work systems hpwss in 217 subsidiaries of american based multinational enterprises operating in 14 countries in asia africa and europe specifically this paper explores the effect of host country institutional factors on the extent of hpws implementation in subsidiaries and focuses on strong agency influences and dominance effects the proposed model was more successful in explaining the effect of hpwss on rank and file employees than on managers of particular interest is the strong positive association between host country economic growth and hpws implementation which suggests a possible cyclical sensitivity of subsidiaries regarding human resource management strategy

intellectual capital configurations and organizational capability an empirical examination of human resource subunits in the multinational enterprise building on the organizational capabilities literature and theories of the multinational enterprise this paper develops and tests a framework that examines the relationship between intellectual capital configurations and organizational capabilities in human resource hr subunits looking at 187 subunits from 20 mnes findings show that intellectual capital dimensions vary in their usefulness for generating sharing and implementing hr management practices in particular while certain resources may help in the development of one capability they may harm the development of another implications are that an organization s intellectual capital investments will differ depending on the desired capability

the role of performance related pay in renegotiating the effort bargain the case of the british public service much of the academic and policy literature on performance related pay prp focuses on its role as an incentive system its role as a means for renegotiating performance norms has been largely neglected this study examines the introduction of performance related pay based mostly on appraisals by line managers in britain s public services during the 1990s previous research indicates that prp failed to motivate many of the staff and that its operation was divisive nevertheless other information suggests that productivity rose this article seeks to resolve the paradox using contract theory to show that performance pay was the instrument of a major renegotiation of performance norms and that this rather than motivation was the principal dynamic goal setting and appraisal by line managers played a key role in this process

influences on human resource management practices in multinational corporations a study of human resource management practices in 249 u s affiliates of foreign based multinational corporations mncs shows that in general affiliate hrm practices closely follow local practices with differences among specific practices the degree of similarity of local practices is significantly influenced by the method of founding dependence on local inputs the presence of expatriates and the extent of communication with the parent in addition sharp differences are revealed among affiliates of canadian japanese and european mncs suggesting strong country effects together these findings support the view of mncs as composed of differentiated practices which in turn are shaped by forces for local isomorphism and for internal consistency

further evidence on exchange rate expectations abstract this paper considers a previously unexploited survey data set of exchange rate expectations which allows us to focus on differences between ems and dollar exchange rates we corroborate the earlier finding in the literature that exchange rate forecasts are not rational and that agents do not use all available information efficiently although extrapolative and adaptive expectations formation mechanisms describe non ems exchange rate expectations to a certain extent ems exchange rates forecasts seem to follow long run fundamentals more closely and would suggest that agents believe that ems exchange rate expectations undershoot their long run equilibrium values jel f31

patterns in exchange rate forecasts for twenty five currencies the properties of exchange rate forecasts are investigated with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies over the entire sample expectations appear to be biased this result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures there appear to be statistically significant differences in the degree of bias in subgroupings of the data the bias is lower for the high inflation countries the bias is greater for the major currencies studied in earlier papers and the bias is also greater for the ems currencies copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

the pricing of tail risk and the equity premium evidence from international option markets we explore the pricing of tail risk as manifest in index options across international equity markets the risk premium associated with negative tail events displays persistent shifts unrelated to

does foreign exchange intervention matter the portfolio effect until recently there was an unusual degree of consensus among economists that intervention by central banks in the foreign exchange market did not offer an effective or lasting instrument for affecting the exchange rate at least not independently of monetary policy this consensus was largely shared among policymakers and participants in the financial markets as well the 1982 g 7 economic summit at versailles commissioned a study of intervention known as the jurgenson report which found that the effects were small and transitory at most we think that the time is ripe for new statistical testing of the question many policymakers and foreign exchange traders believe that the intervention operations that have taken place since the plaza agreement of september 1985 have had an effect especially when operations are coordinated moreover the theoretical case against the effectiveness of intervention is not as clear as a reading of the economics literature might suggest the academic literature is predicated on the distinction between intervention operations that are sterilized and those that are allowed to affect the money supply we study the intervention operations that actually took place between 1982 and 1988 regardless of whether they were sterilized however we do begin in section i with a review of the issues involved 2 there are two possible channels through which intervention whether sterilized or not can influence the foreign exchange rate the portfolio and the expectations channels intervention can even if sterilized influence exchange rates through the portfolio channel provided foreign and domestic bonds are considered imperfect substitutes in investors portfolios intervention operations that for example increase the current relative supply of mark to dollar assets which private investors are obliged to accept into their portfolios will force a decrease in the relative price of mark assets 3 intervention can also influence exchange rates regardless of whether foreign and domestic bonds are imperfect substitutes through the expectations channel the public information that central banks are intervening in support of a currency or are planning to intervene in the future may under certain conditions cause speculators to expect an increase in the price of that currency in the future speculators react to this information by buying the currency today bringing about the change in the exchange rate today in sections ii and iii we describe the econometric problems that arise in the standard portfolio balance estimation equation we derive an alternative portfolio balance dominguez kennedy school of government harvard university 79 j f kennedy street cambridge ma 02138 frankel department of economics university of california 787 evans hall berkeley ca 94720 we thank three anonymous referees for valuable comments and suggestions julia marsh and julia lowell for research assistance and franz scholl at the bundesbank jean pierre roth at the swiss national bank and officials at the u s treasury and the board of governors of the federal reserve system for making the daily intervention data available 1many of the econometric results finding little or no effect were reported in kenneth s rogoff 1984 and dale w henderson and stephanie sampson 1983 2for authoritative statements see henderson 1984 or maurice obstfeld 1990 3the exchange rate reaction to an increase in the relative supply of outside foreign assets may be reduced if there is an increase in their expected rate of return that induces a corresponding increase in demand

opening the black box of the relationship between hrm practices and firm performance a comparison of mne subsidiaries in the usa finland and russia this paper investigates the extent to which different human resource management hrm practices work better in different countries we also try to open the black box between hrm and multinational enterprise mne subsidiary performance by considering mechanisms through which hrm practices affect mne subsidiary performance the study utilizes a unique data set consisting of subsidiaries of 241 mnes operating in russia usa and finland in the partial least square analysis used to examine our hypotheses we demonstrate that different hrm practices are preferable in different countries and that motivation and ability are important mediating variables in the hrm mne subsidiary performance relationship

explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations a heterogeneous agent approach this paper combines survey forecasts with a heterogeneous agent model to examine the dispersion of expectations of participants in the foreign exchange market we find distinct variations in the level of dispersion and document that dispersion arises because of the combined effect of market participants holding private information and attaching different weights to fundamental technical and carry trade analyses we estimate a heterogeneous agent model on the survey forecasts and show that the weight attached to the three forecast rules is adjusted over time in response to the relative importance of the rules in the actual foreign exchange market the weights are related to market circumstances the switching model is finally shown to outperform the random walk model in an out of sample forecast exercise

developed country mnes investing in developing economies progress and prospect this study reviews research from 1970 through 2016 on developed country multinational enterprises dmnes entering and competing in developing economies to identify the current state of knowledge of this research and push it further we review the literature using bibliometric and qualitative content analyses covering leading journals and books we articulate frontier issues that are understudied yet critical to both theorization and practice of dmnes in developing economies we discuss the findings and conclusions from prior research along five key areas 1 entering developing economies 2 organizing local activities 3 managing alliances and joint ventures 4 competing in dynamic environments and 5 dealing with institutions governments and society we offer prospective insights into future agenda that have important implications for mne strategies and decisions and propose frontier directions that encompass strategic localization reverse transfer and adaptation co evolution with local business ecosystems reorganizing and restructuring and strategic responses to institutional and market complexity

using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle evidence from u s multinational firms while in previous literature foreign currency exposure is estimated to be surprisingly small and insignificant we question in this paper the rationality assumption and show that the traditional use of realized exchange rate changes to approximate unexpected currency shocks leads to a strong underestimation of the influence that exchange rates play in determining firm valuations in light of a unique survey data base of individual exchange rate expectations we distinguish between realized and unexpected foreign currency movements and find that half of our sample of 935 u s firms with real operations in foreign countries is significantly exposed to unexpected exchange rate movements in line with previously reported results foreign exchange risk exposure is found to become increasingly perceptible when the return horizon is lengthened the difference between the exposure to realized versus unexpected exchange rate movements is however decreasing when lengthening the horizon suggesting that the more market participants disagree about the future path of currency values the less investors and or managers are likely to use the publicly available forecasts in their pricing and hedging decisions

the purchasing power parity debate originally propounded by the 16th century scholars of the university of salamanca the concept of purchasing power parity ppp was revived in the interwar period in the context of the debate concerning the appropriate level at which to re establish international exchange rate parities broadly accepted as a long run equilibrium condition in the post war period it first was advocated as a short run equilibrium by many international economists in the first few years following the breakdown of the bretton woods system in the early 1970s and then increasingly came under attack on both theoretical and empirical grounds from the late 1970s to the mid 1990s accordingly over the last three decades a large literature has built up that examines how much the data deviated from theory and the fruits of this research have provided a deeper understanding of how well ppp applies in both the short run and the long run since the mid 1990s larger datasets and nonlinear econometric methods in particular have improved estimation as deviations narrowed between real exchange rates and ppp so did the gap narrow between theory and data and some degree of confidence in long run ppp began to emerge again in this respect the idea of long run ppp now enjoys perhaps its strongest support in more than 30 years a distinct reversion in economic thought

the impact of market orientation and strategic hrm on firm performance the case of chinese enterprises this study examines market orientation as the antecedent to strategic human resource management shrm and the related effects on firm performance in an emerging economy context it is suggested that the relationship between shrm and firm performance is moderated by ownership type and autonomy in staffing of these firms empirical results from a sample of chinese firms from various industries and regions reveal that shrm mediates the relationship between market orientation and firm performance it is also found that the effect of shrm on firm performance is stronger for firms with a higher degree of autonomy in staffing and weaker for private firms other types of ownership state or foreign have no effect on this relationship

the effect of human resource management practices on mnc subsidiary performance in russia this study investigates the relationship between human resource management hrm and the performance of 101 foreign owned subsidiaries in russia the study s results provide support for the assertion that investments in hrm practices can substantially assist a firm in improving performance further different hrm practices for managerial and non managerial employees are found to be significantly related to firm performance only limited support however is obtained for the hypothesized relationship between efforts at aligning hrm practices with firm strategy and subsidiary performance

dollar jump fears 1984 1992 distributional abnormalities implicit in currency futures options abstract deutsche mark and yen futures options over 1984 1992 and 1986 1992 respectively are examined for deviations from the lognormal assumption underlying standard option pricing models two methods are used an atheoretic skewness premium and daily estimates of moments using a model for pricing american foreign currency futures options under systematic exchange rate jump risk substantial variation over time is found in all moments including implicit skewness and kurtosis the implicit abnormalities predict future abnormalities in log differenced dm futures prices but not yen the peso problem implications do not explain standard rejections of uncovered interest parity

an evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts abstract a non parametric test of direction is employed to evaluate the survey forecasts provided by the money market services empirical results suggest that the forecasts are useful for predicting the direction of exchange rate changes the results are consistent with a weaker form of rationality than unbiasedness

pay for performance in emerging markets insights from china with the rapid increase in the application of western hr practices in emerging markets it is crucial to investigate how non western employees react to western hr practices such as pay for performance pfp we investigate employee reactions to pfp in emerging markets using china as a case our multilevel analyses based on data from 574 engineers in 22 domestic firms and eight foreign firms in china demonstrated that pfp was positively associated with conscientiousness at the individual level in contrast pfp was negatively related to employees organizational commitment and interpersonal helping at the organization level this study suggests that the impact of culture distance associated with western hr practices may be more likely to manifest itself in the collective entity than at the individual level employees of domestic firms reported significantly higher levels of performance appraisal satisfaction and justice perceptions than employees of foreign firms which might explain why pfp was more widely implemented in domestic firms in china the present results demonstrated that in addition to the culture distance the context distance between domestic and foreign firms may play a critical role in accruing benefits from pfp indicating that pfp can be more beneficial to domestic firms than to foreign firms the present findings provide practical implications for foreign firms operating in emerging markets

equity and tradeoffs in a tax based incomes policy a tax based incomes policy tip is a tax incentive that tries to induce employers and or workers to reduce wage and or price increases it is intended as a complement to the basic anti inflation policy of gradual monetary deceleration and fiscal restraint its purpose is to reduce the capital stock and output loss that would otherwise accompany such a policy see my 1978 1979a articles this article is divided into two sections section i examines the capital stock and output loss under monetary deceleration that is uncomplemented by tip this loss is due primarily to wage growth inertia a central feature of modern capitalist economies such inertia provides not only the rationale for a tip on wage increases but also implies that special effort is required to assure that the design of a complete tip package is fair to labor section ii analyzes the tradeoffs confronting two alternative methods of making tip more equitable to labor profit and or price restraint insurance and a tip on price increases of the largest firms the original tip limited to wage increases at first glance is often perceived as unbalanced and inequitable this section tries to contribute to the development of a balanced equitable tip