modeling aggregate manufactured exports for some asian newly industrialized economies a central question in studies of the asian newly industrialised economies has been whether the extremely rapid export growth of these countries can be viewed as primarily a phenomenon of income elastic export demand or of fast expanding export supply in the face of highly price elastic demand this paper provides evidence to show that while high income elasticities of export demand are detected using a conventional simultaneous model this may conceal the presence of important product differentiation and product innovation effects on export demand these are then captured using a measure of the total resource base copyright 1995 by mit press

the demand for ldc exports of manufactures estimates from hong kong exports of manufactures from developing countries are generally believed to be sensitive to changes in the level of income in the developed countries their major market this belief is grounded on both casual observation especially from the experience of recent recessions and on extensive econometric evidence of low price elasticities and high income elasticities of demand for ldc exports in developed countries this paper argues that both casual observation and previous econometric evidence are misleading the aim of the paper is to show the order of magnitude of the bias contained in previous econometric estimates of price and income elasticities of demand for ldc exports of manufactures due to neglect of supply side influences previous econometric work has neglected the supply side of ldc exports for the simple reason that it is difficult to model it is difficult to model properly the supply of aggregate ldc exports since the determinants of export supply differ from country to country even for a single country modelling export supply is complicated since in addition to foreign demand and domestic supply exports are determined in part by domestic demand for exportables furthermore in most ldcs the incentive to export is strongly influenced by complex and continually changing industrial and trade policy measures there is one major exception hong kong one of the developing world s largest and most successful exporters of manufactured goods the manufacturing sector in hong kong is almost completely specialised exporting 95 of output consequently domestic demand plays no part in determining the volume of exports furthermore factor markets and the manufacturing sector are almost completely free from government intervention the main exception being the textile export restraints imposed at the insistence of importing countries the voluntary restraint agreements vras to which hong kong is subject no doubt affect the composition of exports but not necessarily the volume of aggregate exports if resources in the restrained sectors can easily be redeployed elsewhere in the economy judging from past export growth rates the vras do not appear to have had a significant effect on aggregate export growth in hong kong the results reported below also suggest that hong kong has effectively circumvented the trade barriers it faces the hong kong manufacturing sector in many ways resembles a firm in the

determining factors for the adoption of e business the case of smes in korea this study investigates the determining factors of the successful adoption of e business by small and medium enterprises smes in korea using survey data after the major determining factors were identified from the innovation adoption literature and were extracted by applying the principal component analysis to the survey data and by adding the country specific characteristics of korea we conducted empirical analyses to determine the critical success factors for the adoption of e business by korean firms the empirical results which are based on t tests of the differences between adopters and non adopters the linear probability model and the logit model all suggest that the important determinants of the successful adoption of e business by smes in korea are the ceo s knowledge of information technology it e business relative advantages and benefits from implementing e business governmental support globalization strategy and the north korean factor business size the cost of e business adoptio

empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series var and structural models abstract var and structural econometric models have complementary roles in the modelling of macroeconomic time series a constant parameter var provided it is statistically well specified constitutes a valid basis for testing hypotheses of dynamic specification exogeneity and a priori structure thus facilitating model evaluation as well as suggesting a potentially efficient model development strategy deterministic e g trends and regime shifts and stochastic e g integrated variables non stationarities are analysable within this framework and the johansen maximum likelihood procedure for cointegrated systems is used in an analysis of the determination of earnings prices productivity and unemployment in the u k

is there persistence in the growth of manufactured exports evidence from newly industrializing countries abstract applying cointegration techniques in a panel data setting we document persistent growth of manufactured exports from certain developing countries to complement the investigation of persistence measured by the country fixed effects we analyze asymmetries in income elasticities for all developing countries the decline in exports with world income contraction is sharper than is the rise on the upswing the decline is however especially pronounced for countries with low or negative persistence the results are consistent with long term buyer supplier relationships that create insiders and outsiders in manufactured goods trading exports are also influenced by the transactional infrastructure proxied by telecommunications penetration

demand and supply factors in the determination of nie exports a reply in their comment on muscatelli srinivasan and vines msv i992 athukorala and riedel challenge our conclusions regarding the estimated longrun elasticities of export demand for hong kong and our suggestion that estimating a system of export demand and supply could provide a solution to the normalisation problem unfortunately by focusing only on a subset of the issues raised by msv athukorala and riedel tend to ignore some of the key econometric evidence against their preferred small country assumption and their chosen normalisation price dependent export demand there are three key pieces of evidence which tend to point against the small country assumption first let us turn to the normalisation issue as athukorala and riedel note least squares methods such as the phillips hansen procedure will not yield estimates of cointegrating vectors which are independent of normalisation and that is why msv point out that the phillips hansen procedure may only alleviate not solve the normalisation problem ideally when estimating a simultaneous cointegrated model scm one should attempt to test and impose identifying restrictions on the h matrix in a johansen type multi variate var framework

managing international interdependence ceo characteristics in a resource based framework this study s basic argument is that the level of a firm s international interdependence influences the pattern of ceo characteristics ideal for enabling a ceo to contribute to firm performance in

the empirical modelling of nie exports an evaluation of different approaches this article investigates the current debate regarding the robustness of estimates of export demand and supply elasticities for ldcs and nies obtained by recent empirical studies the empirical findings reported in the article suggest that price elasticities of demand are indeed low and that there are strong and significant income effects on export demand furthermore using a variety of modelling approaches we demonstrate that the choice of estimation method and normalisation need not lead to drastically different conclusions regarding the size of the price elasticity of demand for nie exports whilst this points against the small country assumption usually made regarding ldc nie exports we argue that the preferred development strategy for ldcs need not necessarily be an inward oriented one this is because the large estimated income market growth elasticities in the demand equations may be due to the presence of supply side influences which have been the focus of attention of the new theories of i

demand and supply factors in the determination of nie exports a simultaneous error correction model for hong kong a comment v a muscatelli t g srinivasan and d vines 1992 purported to refute j riedel s 1988 finding that hong kong is a small price taking country in world markets this comment shows however that muscatelli srinivasan and vines s results are due entirely to an unjustifiable restriction they imposed on the estimated export demand equation and not the result of using a superior estimation technique as they asserted copyright 1994 by royal economic society

internet start ups access to the bank loan market evidence from italy the analysis of the bank sector s ability to efficiently fuel the birth of new italian business ventures in internet related services is studied in particular through the specification and the estimate of a series of econometric models this paper aims at investigating which characteristics of a large sample of internet start ups and their relative founders facilitate access to the loan market more precisely the role played by founders human capital as a possible significant signal used by banks to evaluate investment projects is addressed estimation results suggest that highly qualified human resources possessed by internet founders do not represent an important driver for gaining access to bank credit and they do not affect the amount of the incurred debt

long run price and income elasticities of demand for hong kong exports a structural cointegrating var approach this article revisits a system of export volume and price equations to estimate the long run price and income effects in the demand for hong kong s exports using a recently developed restricted cointegrating var approach it tests theorybased restrictions and obtains estimates of the long run structural coefficients the estimation results provide supporting evidence for the theory based restrictions and suggest that the demand for hong kong s exports is both price and income elastic this article is therefore able to present a long run model of hong kong s exports that is both theory and data consistent and long run elasticities that are economically interpretable the short run properties of the model are illustrated by means of persistence profiles which confirm the cointegrating vectors tendency of convergence

trade as the engine of growth in developing countries revisited economic growth in developed countries since the mid 1970s the only way to keep the engine of ldc growth beating at a satisfactory rate so the argument goes is to turn to an alternative source of fuel this lewis argues lies in trade among the developing countries which he asserts can take up the slack left by mdcs more developed countries as mdcs slow down 1980 p 560 pessimism about demand for ldc exports in developed countries markets is a recurrent theme in the development literature also familiar is the approach taken by lewis to dismiss past successes of ldcs in world trade by declaring the alleged engine of past growth to be no longer operating satisfactorily the intellectual foundations of the import substitution strategy laid in the 1950s by prebisch myrdal and most importantly nurkse rested on similar grounds arguing that the demand for periphery countries exports in the 20th century is far weaker than it was in the 19th century trade was dismissed as an engine of growth a function nurkse alleged it had served in the 19th century the solution prescribed in the 1950s was to look inward in effect to scrap the trade engine altogether lewis remedy coming two decades later when most importsubstitution possibilities in many ldcs have been all but exhausted retains the trade engine but seeks an alternative source of fuel to drive it the classic critique by irving kravis 1970 of nurkse s thesis of trade as a faltering engine of growth showed that export expansion did not serve in the nineteenth century to differentiate successful from unsuccessful countries p 850 this followed from two findings first that successful 19th century countries showed few signs of export dominated growth second that unsuccessful periphery countries enjoyed export expansion in the second half of the 19th century of the same order of magnitude as the temperate regions of recent settlement this led kravis to conclude that a more warranted metaphor

the performance of cross border units in china a test of natural selection strategic choice and contingency theories this study tests the explanatory power of three theoretical frameworks for the performance of cross border affiliates by examining the experience of 615 hong kong firms managing operations in mainland china the frameworks tested are the natural selection approach focused on the influence of the environment the strategic choice approach focused on managerial action and the contingency approach which emphasises the fit between environmental contingencies and internal organisation the results show that natural selection and strategic choice have a role to play even when controlling for each other they also support a simple approach to contingency but not a more complex version involving interactions although the business and institutional environments do have a significant influence on the performance of cross border affiliates in a transition economy performance can be improved through strategic managerial action in particular leveraging local resources by developing trust between parent and affiliate and maintaining close control and integration with the parent are associated with enhanced performance

intra nie competition in exports of manufactures this paper provides empirical evidence on the extent to which the asian newly industrialised economies nies compete in world export markets our results support existing studies which emphasise the importance of allowing for intra ldc competition in modelling an individual developing country s exports whilst the asian nies are regarded as a model for other developing countries to emulate one has to consider whether such an expansion in export supply would be at the expense of oecd economies or whether it will lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade of the developing countries as a group

welfare effects of an export tax thailand s rice premium an empirically based applied general equilibrium model is used to study the welfare and distributional effects of an export tax when the implementing country possesses some monopoly power in the world market a method is demonstrated through which a general equilibrium model can be used to find the optimal value of a tax or subsidy the approach makes it possible to conduct the welfare analysis of a particular intervention in an explicit second best context to study its income distributional implications and to explore the sensitivity of the results to variations in key behavioral parameters structural assumptions and the government s distributional objectives copyright 2001 oxford university press

an analysis of the disaggregated manufacturing exports of the asian nies to eec usa and japan this paper examines the export performance of the four asian newly industrialized economics nies by modelling their bilateral export flows to three main oecd blocks the usa japan and the european community our estimated export demand models reveal interesting asymmetries between these three areas of destination which do not emerge from previous aggregate empirical studies of nie export performance

demand and supply factors in the determination of nie exports a simultaneous error correction model for hong kong this paper considers the issue of whether a small developing economy such as hong kong faces a perfectly elastic demand for its exports of manufactured goods we construct a simultaneous demand and supply system which is estimated using full information maximum likelihood methods and which allows us to clearly identify demand and supply factors in determining export volumes and prices our empirical findings differ from previous studies conducted with this data set in that they suggest that even a small dynamic newly industrialized economy such as hong kong may not face infinitely elastic demand for its manufactured goods we also advance some reasons to explain why the small country assumption may not be applicable in the case of most industrialized economies

inequality and the us import demand function in this paper we build a model of trade in vertically differentiated products and find that income inequality can affect the demand for imports even in the presence of homothetic preferences the empirical importance of changes in inequality on the demand for imports is then assessed by examining panel data for 36 developing and developed countries for the 1980 1997 period we find significant evidence supporting our prediction that inequality has a large influence on the demand for imports moreover we find that in line with the predictions of our theoretical model this influence is positive for high income countries countries that produce the high quality variety of the vertically differentiated product and negative for low income countries countries that produce the low quality variety of the vertically differentiated product

demand elasticities in international trade are they really low the authors analyze the u s demand for bangladeshi imports for products restricted under the multifiber arrangement because bangladesh is only a small supplier of these products and latin american and asian countries can supply close substitutes the authors expected a high elasticity of demand for bangladeshi imports and they found consistently high estimates based on statistically significant coefficients their finding accords with trade theorists prejudice that small countries can essentially behave as price takers but conflicts with the empirical literature view that demand elasticities are low rarely exceeding 3 and generally between 1 and 2 the authors analysis differs from the existing literature in three ways they derive a set of estimation equations from an explicit utility maximization model and use the estimated parameters of the utility function to obtain the marshallian own price and cross price elasticities as well as the income elasticity of demand they take explicit account of u s imports from competitors of bangladesh relying directly on competitors prices and they use highly disaggregated data that make the unit value of exports a better proxy for price than using aggregated export data commonly used in this literature the authors outline their theoretical model for deriving their estimated equations in section 1 preliminarily determine who bangladesh s competitors are in section 2 and estimate the demand equation derived in section 1 and derive the price and income elasticities facing bangladesh in section 3

exchange rate variability and the export demand for malaysia s semiconductors an empirical study this article examines the effects of exchange rate variability on export demand for semiconductors which is the largest sub sector of electronics industry in malaysia as reported by malaysian industrial development authority mida 2004 the empirical results which are estimated based on the johansen s multivariate cointegration tests and error correction model suggest that there is a unique long run relationship among quantities of export relative price real foreign income and real exchange rate variability the major finding of this article is that the variability of real exchange rate has some effect on semiconductor exports in both the long run and the short run in the light of rapid advances in technology in the global markets for electronics products the findings are useful to policy makers for the design and target of appropriate exchange rate and industrial policies to enhance the export competitiveness of semiconductor industry

e commerce readiness institutional environment and international competitiveness a systematic cross country analysis of e commerce activity reveals that although physical infrastructure explains much of the variation in basic internet use e commerce activity also depends significantly on a supportive institutional environment chief among the characteristics of such an environment are national respect for the rule of law and secondarily the availability of credible payment channels such as credit cards these results suggest that an institutional environment that facilitates the building of transactional integrity is critical to the development of e commerce

e commerce and consumer s purchasing behaviour after its first exposure to the public in 1993 there has been a rapid increase in the use of the internet for different purposes particularly for electronic trade in such a new trade area there are a lot of issues to be addressed with regard to the consumer s purchasing behaviour this study analyses the roles of sexual preference primary place of online access and online experience as well as demographic and economic factors on the consumer s purchasing decision moreover this study investigates the impact of the potential and or prevalent critical issues facing the internet e g taxation of services privacy censorship etc on online orders surprisingly sexual preferences have a large significant effect on online purchases gay and bisexual people are more likely to shop from the internet than the other ones the results also suggest that people with more online experiences in a more private and secure environment like home are disposed to order more from the internet in addition to that

modelling nie exports aggregation quantitative restrictions and choice of econometric methodology the current debate regarding the robustness of estimates of export demand and supply elasticities for nies is examined by modelling manufactured exports from korea the results suggest that normalisation of the export demand function for price rather than quantity is an important issue in estimating export demand functions of small countries and that estimates of export demand elasticities at high levels of aggregation are subject to potentially powerful biases when the aggregate consists of categories which are subject to quantitative restrictions if proper modelling procedures are followed it is likely that the small country assumption will find far more empirical support than it has hitherto