decriminalization and marijuana smoking prevalence evidence from australia this article uses the 2001 national drug strategy household survey to assess the impact of marijuana decriminalization policy on marijuana smoking prevalence in australia both parametric and nonparametric methods are used the parametric approach includes endogenous probit switching two part sample selection and standard dummy variable models while the nonparametric approach uses propensity score stratification matching specification analyses are also conducted a nonparametric kernel based test is constructed to select between parametric and nonparametric models and the likelihood ratio test is used to choose among parametric models our analyses favor the endogenous switching model where decriminalization increases the probability of smoking by 16 2

evaluating social policy by experimental and nonexperimental methods although it is important to establish causal relationships in social policy evaluation the effects are difficult to observe due to sample selection to evaluate the performance of estimators designed to handle sample selection bias we analyse data from a norwegian rehabilitation project with a randomised experimental design the data permit us to compare the performance of different nonexperimental estimators with the experimental results in our case study we find that nonexperimental evaluation based on sample selection estimators with selection terms that fail to meet conventional levels of statistical significance is highly unreliable the difference in difference estimator and propensity score matching estimators perform better in our context jel classification c51 j24 h43 i12

discrete choice with social interactions and endogenous memberships this paper develops a theory of sorting and behavior when the latter is subject to social influences i extend the choice model with social interactions developed by brock and durlauf 2001a 2003 to allow for equilibrium group formation individuals choose a group and a behavior subject to an endogenous social effect the latter turns out to be a segregating force and stable equilibria are stratified the sorting process may induce inefficiently multiple behavioral equilibria such a theory serves as a means to solve identification and selection problems that may undermine the empirical detection of social effects on individual behavior i exploit the theoretical structure to build a nonlinear in the social effect selection correction term such a term allows identification and solves the selection problem that arises when individuals can choose the group whose effect the researcher is trying to disentangle

economics coursework and long term behavior and experiences of college graduates in labor markets and personal finance i introduction if economics is a unique way of thinking as many economists like to claim some level of coursework in economics may provide enough specific knowledge and skills to lead students to make different choices in their adult roles as consumers workers and voters citizens of course the same could be claimed for training in business and other areas even though or perhaps because it could be argued that most content and training in business courses is more applied and pragmatic than what is presented in economics courses some empirical evidence though not really a great deal suggests that training in economics and business is associated with different adult behaviors and outcomes for example golec 1996 finds that mutual funds perform better if mutual fund managers have an mba and chevalier and ellison 1999 also report a positive correlation between mutual fund performance and the educational background of mutual fund managers black sanders and taylor 2003 found that economics majors earn almost 20 more than graduates in other social science majors and about 10 more than those who major in business administration in fields with large numbers of graduates they find that only engineering majors earn more than economics majors similarly hecker 1995 reported that males majoring in economics had median earnings 3 higher than all majors for the age cohort of 25 34 and 53 more than average for the cohort aged 35 44 craft and baker 2003 find that lawyers with an undergraduate major in economics earn 13 more than otherwise comparable lawyers with other undergraduate majors and economics is the only major with a statistically significant effect on earnings 1 hamermesh and donald 2008 however find that higher earnings by economics majors are partly due to economics majors working more hours than others the relationship between financial literacy knowledge and adult behavior and outcomes in financial markets has been addressed in several recent studies many sponsored by federal reserve banks hilgert hogarth and beverly 2003 and braunstein and welch 2002 find that knowledge about credit saving and investment is significantly related to recommended financial practices in cash flow management credit management saving and investment unfortunately there is also evidence of widespread financial illiteracy in u s households and particularly among elderly women see lusardi and mitchell 2007 2008 employee education programs have been found to affect workers savings retirement and investment behaviors bayer bernheim and scholz 2009 bernheim and garret 2003 state mandates for precollege education in personal finance appear to succeed in at least exposing students to more information and sources on financial education and students from states with such mandates report higher levels of savings and net worth as adults bernheim garrett and maki 2001 tennyson and nguyen 2001 much less research exists linking college coursework or majoring in economics to personal finance outcomes 2 but christiansen joensen and rangvid 2008 find that those trained in economics in college courses or employee education programs are more likely to invest in stocks than those who receive training in other areas guiso and jappelli 2005 report that among college graduates having a degree in economics is positively associated with knowledge about financial assets chert and volpe 1998 107 concluded that business majors had better knowledge about personal financial literacy than other students but that in general college students were not knowledgeable about personal finance 3 in this paper we use a large and unique data set to investigate the relationships between taking college coursework in economics or majoring in economics with long term labor market and personal finance behaviors and outcomes our information on long term behaviors and outcomes is drawn from a detailed questionnaire we mailed in january 2003 to over 25 000 graduates who attended four public universities in 1976 1986 or 1996

tariffs quotas and piecemeal policy reform abstract this paper extends recent results on the welfare implications of piecemeal tariff adjustments to include cases where the initial trade distortions involve both tariffs and quotas it shows that the standard prescriptions for piecemeal tariff reform are largely unaffected by the presence of unalterable quotas on other goods prescriptions for piecemeal quota reform are also derived although they are constrained by the presence of unalterable tariffs

an evaluation of active and passive labour market policy this paper reports results of an empirical study on the effectiveness of labour market policy data from austria france germany great britain sweden and the united states are used to apply a simultaneous equation model with wages and employment being the endogenous variables in order to explain employment the amount of unemployment benefits per unemployed passive labour market policy and payment for wage subsidies and training per employed and unemployed person active labour market policy are used in addition to real wages and output wages and output have their expected impact on total employment it turns out that passive labour market policy has a negative and active labour market measures a positive effect on the number of persons employed

measuring the effect of subsidized training programs on movements in and out of employment despite over two decades of u s experience in operating large scale subsidized training programs for low income and unemployed workers the effects of these programs are still highly controversial the controversy arises from the difficulty of specifying the model of participant outcomes in the absence of training that is necessary in any nonexperimental program evaluation in this paper we suggest that some of these difficulties may be overcome by focusing on a very simple measure of outcomes namely the probability of employment we present a variety of estimates of the effect of training on the probability of employment for the 1976 cohort of adult male participants in the comprehensive employment and training act ceta program our methods range from a simple comparison of pre and post training employment probabilities between trainees and nonparticipants to a fully specified first order markov model of employment probabilities with individual heterogeneity there is consistent evidence across methods that ceta participation increased the probability of employment in the three years after training by from 2 to 5 percentage points classroom training programs appear to have had significantly larger effects than on the job programs although the estimated effects of both kinds of programs are positive we also find that movements in and out of employment for trainees and nonparticipants are reasonably well described by a first order process conditional on individual heterogeneity in the context of this model ceta participation appears to have increased both the probability of moving into employment and the probability of continuing employment

some generalized mixture distributions with an application to unemployment duration compounding or mixture distributions provide a rich class of models for applications ranging from models of heterogeniety measurement error distribution of stock returns and income to models of unemployment duration some very general mixtures are considered which include many new mixture models and also provide a unified method of organizing and comparing previously considered models as well as a test of heterogeneity these models are used to analyze cps unemployment duration data a heterogeniety interpretation of the mixture models explains the discrepancy between implications of search theory and patterns observed in aggregate unemployment data copyright 1987 by mit press

training and the time to find a job in israel using high frequency data for israel it is found that trainees exit unemployment at a much faster rate than comparable unemployed who did not receive training it is argued that this powerful training effect is unlikely to be simply the result of positive self selection of trainees the training effect is detected when using nonparametric estimation methods parametric methods fail to pick it up because of a very large exit spike in the hazard function which occurs when the training is completed other findings include the following the duration of unemployment varies directly with the duration of entitlement to unemployment benefit as well as the replacement ratio also the exit hazard from unemployment rises as the benefit entitlement period draws to a close

semiparametric estimation of selection models some empirical results among the central theoretical developments in the econometric analysis of nonexperimental microeconomic data has been the analysis of selectivity bias following the work of james heckman 1974 statistical techniques were developed in the 1970s to consistently estimate the parameters of these models one potential drawback to the application of these techniques is their sensitivity to the assumed parametric distribution of the unobservable error terms in the model in recent years a number of estimation methods for selection models have been developed which do not impose parametric forms on error distributions these methods are termed semiparametric since only part of the model of interest the regression function is parametrically specified while the statistical theory of these semiparametric estimators has received much attention practical applications of the methods are lacking an exception being the paper by joel horowitz and george neumann 1987 in this paper we use semiparametric methods to reanalyze data on the labor supply of married women first studied by thomas mroz 1987 using parametric methods the object of this reanalysis is to determine whether mroz s results are sensitive to his parametric assumptions

probability of purchase amount of purchase and the demographic incidence of the lottery tax abstract when consumers indifference curves are discontinuous at zero perhaps due to stigma or fixed costs of purchase then factors influencing the amount purchased will have a different effect on the probability of purchase estimation of the demand for a commodity like lottery tickets requires a procedure that accounts for this tobit estimation commonly used in this literature does not allow for this generalization we investigate individual lottery ticket purchases using data from a survey of households our results are quite disparate from earlier studies regarding the effects of many demographic variables on probability of play level of play and expected lottery ticket purchases and imply a different demographic incidence of the lottery tax than previous studies suggest

the effectiveness of yts as a manpower policy using data from the 1985 and 1986 scottish people s surveys this paper attempts to measure the effectiveness of the youth training scheme by estimating the impact of youth training scheme participation on both the subsequent probability of employment and the subsequent earnings potential the youth training scheme is found to have a positive impact on the probability of employment after allowing for possible sample selection bias owing to participation being nonrandom there are indications that the youth training scheme may have a positive impact on subsequent wages but the estimates are so imprecise that it was not possible to draw any statistically significant conclusions about wage effects copyright 1990 by the london school of economics and political science

energy tariffs in a small open economy abstract tariffs on imported energy alter production and redistribute income the present paper examines a small open economy producing two traded goods with capital labor and imported energy a tariff reduces import and domestic factor income but payment to one domestic factor rises energy intensive output falls but the other output may rise in the general equilibrium political opinions on the tariff would differ revenue is concave in the tariff suggesting that the government might set the tariff to maximize revenue a simulation illustrates these general equilibrium properties across a range of tariffs

interpreting aggregate wage growth the role of labor market participation a new and easily implementable framework for the empirical analysis of the relationship between aggregate and individual wages is developed aggregate real wages are shown to contain three important bias terms one associated with the dispersion of individual wages a second deriving from compositional changes in the selected sample of workers and a third reflecting the distribution of working hours their importance for interpreting the path of aggregate wages and of the returns to education for recent experience in britain is highlighted a close correspondence between the estimated biases and the patterns of differences shown by aggregate wages is established

recent two stage sample selection procedures with an application to the gender wage gap recently developed two stage estimation methods of sample selection models are used in the context of data from the 1989 labor market activity survey to examine labor supply decisions and wage outcomes for employed men and women recent hypothesis test procedures are used to test for no sample selection and to test for a parametric against a semiparametric selection correction procedure we conclude that selection is indeed an issue for the sample at hand and that the semiparametric specification is appropriate we also present the standard decomposition of the gender wage gap into its explained and unexplained portions

input tariffs duty drawbacks and tariff reforms abstract this paper provides a systematic analysis of the effects of input tariffs and duty drawbacks on welfare the paper arrives at two broad conclusions first tariffs on inputs unaccompanied by duty drawbacks on exports have an ambiguous effect on welfare second increases in tariffs on inputs complemented by full duty drawbacks are welfare improving up to a point provided goods exhibit substitutability in production as well as consumption the latter conclusion is reinforced by the presence of a revenue constraint

on the theory of piecemeal tariff reform the case of pure imported intermediate inputs what is the effect of a tariff reduction that applies only to a subset of commodities subject to tariffs this important question was addressed systematically for the first time by james meade 1955 ch 13 in his classic work trade and welfare after a careful analysis meade concluded t here is more likely to be a gain in economic welfare if the rate of duty is high on the primary imports which will come in in increased volume and is low on the secondary imports which will come in in reduced volume p 208 this result was proved formally by trent j bertrand and jaroslav vanek 1971 who demonstrated that in a small open economy if the highest tariff rate is reduced to the next highest one welfare will rise provided the import demand for the good with the highest tariff exhibits gross substitutability with respect to all other goods 2 subsequently following a different strand of the literature as exemplified in john green 1961 tatsuo hatta 1973 1977 and peter lloyd 1974 independently proved similar results in terms of hicksian substitutability 3 in deriving their results bertrand and vanek allowed for the use of final goods as intermediate inputs i e interindustry flows 4 however neither they nor the subsequent writers including hatta and lloyd allowed for the existence of pure imported intermediate inputs that are not produced domestically therefore a natural question is whether the piecemeal policy prescription derived by them remains valid in the presence of pure imported intermediates this question is particularly important for developing countries for two reasons first by far the bulk of the imports of developing countries are intermediate and capital goods according to the world bank during the period 1975 1985 50 percent of developing countries imports were accounted for by intermediate inputs and an additional 30 percent were capital goods a sizable proportion of both capital and intermediate goods are neither produced nor directly consumed in these countries second the meade bertrand vanekhatta lloyd result has been the cornerstone of trade policy reform in many developing countries especially during the last decade in most countries trade reform has been based on the so called concertina approach under which the highest tariffs are reduced to the next highest ones and then to the next highest ones and so on thus lopez professor department of agricultural and resource economics university of maryland college park md 20742 and consultant trade policy division world bank 1818 h street n w washington dc 20433 panagariya senior economist trade policy division world bank 1818 h street n w washington dc 20433 and professor department of economics university of maryland college park md 20742 the findings interpretations and conclusions in this paper are entirely those of the authors they do not necessarily represent the views of the world bank its executive directors or the countries they represent the authors are indebted to two referees and tatsuo hatta for valuable comments on an earlier draft iin this quotation primary imports refers to the goods on which tariffs are reduced while secondary imports refers to other importables subject to tariffs 2robert lipsey and kelvin lancaster 1956 had proved the basic result of bertrand and vanek in a one factor three good model with a cobb douglas utility function 3more recently takashi fukushima 1979 has proved the validity of the hatta lloyd result when the highest tariff is shared by several commodities while rodney falvey 1988 has done the same in the presence of quantitative restrictions on imports 4although hatta 1973 1977 did not allow explicitly for interindustry flows his results can also be shown to be valid in the presence of such flows

the welfare effects of lotto evidence from the uk abstract this paper estimates the demand for lottery tickets using pooled cross section data that contain individual incomes and extensive information about characteristics one of the cross sections corresponded to a draw which was a double rollover the jackpot was enhanced by adding the two previous draws jackpots which had not been won together these datasets provide sufficient observations facing different prices to allow us to estimate the price elasticity as well as the income elasticity of demand we estimate tobit and other specifications and use the estimates to evaluate the welfare effects arising from the introduction of the lottery

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

semiparametric censored regression models aregression model is censored when the recorded data on the dependent variable cuts off outside a certain range with multiple observations at the endpoints of that range when the data are censored variation in the observed dependent variable will understate the effect of the regressors on the true dependent variable as a result standard ordinary least squares regression using censored data will typically result in coefficient estimates that are biased toward zero traditional statistical analysis uses maximum likelihood or related procedures to deal with the problem of censored data however the validity of such methods requires correct specification of the error distribution which can be problematic in practice in the past two decades a number of semiparametric alternatives for dealing with censored data have been proposed in a semiparametric approach part of the functional form of the model usually the regression function is parametrically specified by the researcher based upon plausible assumptions while the rest of the model is not parameterized 1 while the theoretical literature has produced several semiparametric estimators for the censored data model published applications of these estimators to empirical problems in economics have lagged far behind this paper reviews the intuition and computation of a handful of semiparametric estimators proposed for the censored regression model the various estimators are used to examine changes in black white earnings inequality during the

assessing the employment effects of vocational training using a one factor model matching estimators use observed variables to adjust for differences between groups to eliminate sample selection bias when minimum relevant information is not available matching estimates are biased if access to data on usually unobserved factors that determine the selection process is unavailable other estimators should be used this study advocates the one factor control function estimator that allows for unobserved heterogeneity with factor loading technique treatment effects of vocational training in sweden are estimated with mean and distributional parameters and then compared with matching estimates the results indicate that unobservables slightly increase the treatment effect for those treated

on the revenue implications of trade liberalization under imperfect competition abstract in a recent paper mujumder mujumder s 2004 revenue implications of trade liberalization under imperfect competition economics letters 82 83 89 argued that only if the industry is a monopoly we could be certain that the government could use profit tax to make up any shortfall in tariff revenue and also make the consumers and producers better off we show that this result is not robust when the products are differentiated we find that there always exists degree of product differentiation such that the government can achieve this goal for any finite number of firms so the picture is not so dismal as shown by mujumder

environmental accounting a management tool for enhancing corporate environmental and economic performance abstract industries are becoming progressively more aware of the environmental and social liabilities pertaining to their operations and products with associated financial effects uncertainties in measuring these financial effects can be addressed by using environmental evaluation and accounting techniques environmental accounting assists in expressing environmental and social liabilities as environmental costs while environmental accounting systems now form part of industrial decision making in first world countries there is a lack of similar systems in south africa the eegecost model was developed to promote environmental accounting in south africa implementation of the model will provide south african industries with the framework for corporate evaluation of alternative investments projects and processes and for estimating economic and environmental performance at present and especially in the future the model identifies records and allocates internal and external environmental costs to five identified cost types categorised into several environmental media groups it also assists in the capital budgeting process for alternative investments applicability of the model was tested in a case study conducted on the life cycle assessment of a functional unit of one million cigarettes the model indicated that type v costs external costs with types i to iv being different internal cost types contributed 12 of the total production costs of a functional unit of cigarettes as type v costs are subjective it is recommended that further research be conducted to structure an objective framework to evaluate and determine cost factors involved in the development of type v costs

mobility and the return to education testing a roy model with multiple markets self selected migration presents one potential explanation for why observed returns to a college education in local labor markets vary widely even though u s workers are highly mobile to assess the impact of self selection on estimated returns this paper first develops a roy model of mobility and earnings where workers choose in which of the 50 states plus the district of columbia to live and work available estimation methods are either infeasible for a selection model with so many alternatives or place potentially severe restrictions on earnings and the selection process this paper develops an alternative econometric methodology that combines lee s 1983 parametric maximum order statistic approach to reduce the dimensionality of the error terms with more recent work on semiparametric estimation of selection models e g ahn and powell 1993 the resulting semiparametric correction is easy to implement and can be adapted to a variety of other polychotomous choice problems the empirical work which uses 1990 u s census data confirms the role of comparative advantage in mobility decisions the results suggest that self selection of higher educated individuals to states with higher returns to education generally leads to upward biases in ols estimates of the returns to education in state specific labor markets while the estimated returns to a college education are significantly biased correcting for the bias does not narrow the range of returns across states consistent with the finding that the corrected return to a college education differs across the u s the relative state to state migration flows of college versus high school educated individuals respond strongly to differences in the return to education and amenities across states

integrating information about the cost of carbon through activity based costing abstract environmental protection has been an issue of serious concern for many years it is not a trend but the responsibility of corporations this responsibility for environmental protection should be internalized into business operations prior to production in order to reflect the true cost of the final product due to the use of traditional cost accounting many organizations have not estimated their environmental costs precisely therefore environmental accounting systems such as carbon management accounting environmental management accounting and greenhouse gas accounting have attracted worldwide attention in this paper we propose an integrated concept the activity based costing approach to solve the problem of environmental and cost evaluation we include a case study of an existing pulp and paper company in taiwan to show that the activity based costing method estimates emissions of waste and the environmental costs of a final product more accurately than traditional approaches do the method can therefore provide information for use in existing environmental accounting systems and help managers incorporate environmental costs into their decision making processes

the dynamics of changes in the female wage distribution in the usa a quantile regression approach this paper examines the female wage structure focusing on changes at different points in the wage distribution newly developed quantile regression methods are used in analysing data from the march current population survey the results show that while the most significant changes for the less skilled women took place at the bottom of the wage distribution for the more skilled groups changes occurred at both ends of the distribution consequently wage inequality decreased for the high school graduates and increased for the younger college graduates furthermore the more highly skilled women experienced the steepest gain in wages regardless of their position in the distribution 1998 john wiley sons ltd

heteroskedastic sample selection and developing country wage equations many researchers have dealt with potential selectivity bias in developing country wage equations by employing heckman s 1979 two step method or related techniques despite the potential for such methods to produce misleading results if the assumptions on which they are based are incorrect this paper argues that the results produced even by parametric easy to implement selectivity bias correction methods can inspire more confidence than the typical applications to date when model selection testing is used to select from a specified diverse set assumptions for which there is support in the data and when sensitivity analysis is used to identify parameters whose estimates are robust across a wide range of assumptions in particular it highlights the importance of allowing for the nonlinearities implied by selection rule heteroskedasticity there is economic reason to suspect heteroskedasticity and econometric reason to believe that the nonlinearities it introduces into the first stage will improve

unemployment and the demand for retraining an econometric analysis this paper describes and estimates a human capital model of whether unemployed workers seek retraining and the timing of an application in an unemployment spell the authors find that the probability of seeking retraining declines with age after twenty seven years with being attached to noncontracting industries with greater contentment in unemployment compared with last job and with union membership applications are increased by formal qualifications cse o a level and decreased by vocational training relative to no qualifications almost half the unemployed had sought retraining and this was largely complete after nine months below the mean interrupted unemployment duration copyright 1991 by royal economic society

gender wage differences in malaysia parametric and semiparametric estimation this paper is an empirical study on the labor force in peninsular malaysia parametric and semiparametric estimated wage equations which correct for sample selection bias are used to assess the returns to education and extent of gender discrimination to estimate in the semiparametric case the wage equation intercept which is needed for the oaxaca wage decomposition consistently we apply the newly developed andrews schafgans andrews d w k schafgans m m a 1998 semiparametric estimation of the intercept of a sample selection model review of economic studies 65 497 518 estimator the results suggest that discrimination favoring men in malaysia is still quite prevalent while for malays the sons of the soil the strong level of discrimination favoring malay men is negated by the semiparametric estimation results

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

estimating the effect of financial aid offers on college enrollment a regression discontinuity approach an important problem faced by colleges and universities that of evaluating the effect of their financial aid offers on student enrollment decisions is complicated by the likely endogeneity of the aid offer variable in a student enrollment equation this article shows how discontinuities in an east coast college s aid assignment rule can be exploited to obtain credible estimates of the aid effect without having to rely on arbitrary exclusion restrictions and functional form assumptions semiparametric estimates based on a regression discontinuity rd approach affirm the importance of financial aid as an effective instrument in competing with other colleges for students

semiparametric estimation of consumer demand systems with micro data maximum likelihood and two step estimators of censored demand systems yield biased and inconsistent parameter estimates when the assumed joint distribution of disturbances is incorrect this paper proposes a semiparametric estimator that retains the computational advantage of the two step approach but is immune to distributional misspecification the key difference between the proposed estimator and the two step estimator is that the parameters of the binary censoring equations are estimated using a distribution free single index model we implement the proposed estimator using household level data obtained from the hainan province in china specification test lends support to our approach

an approach of measuring environmental protection in chinese industries a study using input output model analysis abstract with a green economy making significant developments at a global scale the environmental protection industry has become an increasingly important part of china s national economy china s environmental protection industry is a strategic emerging industry and is expected to become a future pillar of the economy to promote the environmental protection industry in china and to guide environmental protection activities in various sectors the input output method was used to develop china s first environmental protection industry specifically using an externalized input output model various coefficients were measured and analyzed from the perspective of the industry chain the results reveal that the development of environmental protection activities and related environmental investment should give priority to sectors with a current shortage of environmental protection industry input concentrating on these industries will provide relatively higher benefits these industries include primary manufacturing industries the wholesale and retail marketing industries the financial industry and some sectors in second industries in addition the results of a demand and supply model reflect the fact that the environmental protection industry in china should actively promote the environmental finance and fund environmentally friendly products finally the model provides a useful tool that will allow government agencies to develop scientifically sound polices to simulate the economy and provide positive effects on investments

revenue implications of trade liberalization under imperfect competition abstract this paper shows that only where the industry in question is a monopoly can we unequivocally assert that exclusive reliance by the government on the less distortionary profit tax is sufficient to make up any shortfall in tariff revenue and ensure higher welfare for both consumers and producers

the heckman correction for sample selection and its critique this paper gives a short overview of monte carlo studies on the usefulness of heckman s 1976 1979 two step estimator for estimating selection models such models occur frequently in empirical work especially in microeconometrics when estimating wage equations or consumer expenditures it is shown that exploratory work to check for collinearity problems is strongly recommended before deciding on which estimator to apply in the absence of collinearity problems the full information maximum likelihood estimator is preferable to the limited information two step method of heckman although the latter also gives reasonable results if however collinearity problems prevail subsample ols or the two part model is the most robust amongst the simple to calculate estimators

are duty drawbacks on exports worth the hassle many countries use duty drawbacks on exports yet there is no consensus whether countries should embrace or abandon them the answer depends on countries development priorities and economic conditions an increase in the drawback has a positive impact on export competitiveness but the welfare effect is ambiguous a welfare increase is more likely if the economy is small with high input tariffs low initial drawback low administrative costs and tariff leakages in china duty drawback removal after meeting its wto commitments improves welfare but hurts economic efficiency export competitiveness and real incomes further liberalization can mitigate these negative effects plusieurs pays utilisent ce genre de rabais de tarifs douaniers mais il n y a pas de consensus a savoir si on doit supporter ces mesures ou les abandonner la reponse depend des conditions economiques et des priorites de developpement des divers pays un accroissement de ces reductions a un effet positif sur la competitivite des exportations mais ses effets sur le niveau de bien etre sont ambigus un effet de bien etre positif est plus probable si l economie est petite et a des hauts tarifs sur les intrants de faibles rabais des couts administratifs faibles et peu de fuites en chine l elimination de ces rabais en accord avec les engagements exiges par l omc a ameliore le niveau de bien etre mais a eu un effet negatif sur l efficacite la competitive des exportations et les revenus reels une liberalisation accrue peut attenuer ces effets negatifs

understanding reference price shoppers a within and cross category analysis abstract the authors attempt to draw profiles of reference price shoppers specifically the authors study how selected factors that affect brand choice are correlated with consumer sensitivity to gains and losses with respect to internal reference prices they also study the interaction between sociodemographics and gain and loss sensitivity furthermore the authors analyze cross category correlations in gain and loss sensitivity to shed light on their individual and category specific characters in three categories the results show significant heterogeneity in loss sensitivity among consumers and indicate that loss sensitivity is greater and more heterogeneous than gain sensitivity across categories the results show that loss sensitive shoppers are less influenced by past brand use and that both loss and gain sensitive shoppers more sensitive to price display and feature than the average consumer loss sensitive households tend to be larger and their heads are less likely to be fully employed

the protectionist bias of duty drawbacks evidence from mercosur in a political economy setting where tariffs and duty drawbacks are endogenously chosen through industry lobbying it is shown that full duty drawbacks are granted to exporters who use imported intermediates in their production this in turn decreases their incentives to counter lobby against high tariffs on their inputs in equilibrium higher tariffs will be observed on these goods the creation of a regional block will change the political equilibrium duty drawbacks will be eliminated on intra regional exports which in turn will lead to lower tariffs for goods used as inputs by intra regional exporters evidence from mercosur suggests that the elimination of duty drawbacks for intra regional exports led to increased counter lobbying by users of intermediate products in its absence the common external tariff would have been on average 3 5 percentage points 25 percent higher