trends in time allocation a cross country analysis abstract using detailed time use data for seven industrialized countries from the 1970s until today we document general decreases in men s market work coupled with increases in men s unpaid work and child care and increases in women s paid work and child care coupled with decreases in unpaid work we also find almost universal increases in the time devoted to watching television over this period and uncover a widespread increase in leisure inequality in favor of lower educated adults trends in leisure inequality mirror the general increase in income and earnings inequality experienced in most countries over this period especially after the mid 1980s all these findings are consistent with previous results for the us however in contrast to the increases in leisure found for the us we fail to find common trends in leisure time across countries over the period analyzed

public schooling for young children and maternal labor supply as policy makers have sought to reduce the welfare rolls by increasing labor supply among single mothers much attention has been given to the possible role of expanded child care subsidies including direct provision of public preschool at the same time public interest in child care subsidies for two parent households is high for example former vice president gore not long ago proposed to make high quality pre school fully available to every family for every child in every community in america albert gore 1999 in this paper i use 1980 census data to estimate the effect of public school enrollment for a woman s five year old on measures of labor supply and public assistance receipt this approach has two advantages first i am able to estimate the effect of a large implicit child care subsidy 1 second because public kindergarten is universally available to all age eligible children where it is provided selection problems related to means testing do not arise a difficulty with public school enrollment arises because parents may choose to hold their children back a year or enroll them in private school i deal with this issue by using five yearold s quarter of birth qob variables as instruments for public school enrollment status this strategy works because parents ability to enroll a child in public kindergarten in the academic year when the child turns five typically depends on the calendar date of the child s birth 2 in most states children born in the second quarter april 1 june 30 of 1974 will have been eligible to start kindergarten in the fall of 1979 while children born in the first quarter january 1march 31 of 1975 generally will not eligibility for children born between july 1 and december 31 1974 depends on the rules where they live 3

child care policy and the labor supply of mothers with young children a natural experiment from canada in 1997 the provincial government of quebec the second most populous province in canada initiated a new child care policy licensed child care service providers began offering day care spaces at the reduced fee of 5 00 per day per child for children aged 4 by 2000 the policy applied to all children not in kindergarten using annual data 1993 2002 drawn from statistics canada s survey of labour and income dynamics the results show that the policy had a large and statistically significant impact on the labor supply of mothers with preschool children

anomalies risk aversion economists ubiquitously employ a simple and elegant explanation for risk aversion it derives from the concavity of the utility of wealth function within the expected utility framework we show that this explanation is not plausible in most applications since anything more than economically negligible risk aversion over moderate stakes requires a utility of wealth function that is so concave that it predicts absurdly severe risk aversion over very large stakes we present examples of how the expected utility framework has misled economists and why we believe a better explanation for risk aversion must incorporate loss aversion and mental accounting

sharing the emission reduction burden in an uneven world in the climate agreement reached in paris on the 12th of december 2015 the participating countries agreed to provide information about their intended nationally determined contribution and also to assess its fairness and ambition this study contributes a transparent empirical econometric tool for such an assessment it shows that using a formal decomposition framework that uniquely disentangles the macroeconomic and other influences on emissions effort sharing in global greenhouse gas reductions can be achieved in a way that promotes innovation and environmental efficiency to reduce emissions without interfering with the right of poor countries to catch up economically based on gdp projections by the imf and the oecd in a sample of about 185 countries it presents country level co2 emission targets applicable as benchmarks to assess the adequacy and fairness of national contributions

carbon weighted economic development performance and driving force analysis evidence from china based on a data envelopment analysis framework this study develops an indicator termed as carbon weighted economic development cwed covering the dimensions of energy environment economy and resources to measure the economic development performance in a carbon emission conscious economy as an empirical application the proposed approach is applied to a case study of 30 provinces in china in addition to identify the driving forces underlying low carbon economic development in china we analyze the endogenous interactions and dynamic behaviors between cwed foreign direct investment foreign trade industrial structure local fiscal expenditure and energy consumption structure using a panel vector auto regression model the main findings show that 1 adjusting industrial structure by vigorously developing the service industry and reducing the coal energy share in the primary energy consumption structure are the two most effective approaches to improve cwed in both the short run and long run in return cwed has positive feedback effects on both approaches in the long run 2 increase of the fiscal expenditure has a short term positive effect on cwed 3 fdi has an indirect negative effect on cwed in the long run and foreign trade has an indirect positive effect on cwed in the short term

the structure of residential energy demand in greece abstract this paper attempts to shed light on the determinants of residential energy demand in greece and to compare it with some other oecd countries from the estimates of the short run and long run elasticities of energy demand for the period 1965 1999 we find that residential energy demand appears to be price inelastic also we do not find evidence of a structural change probably because of the low efficiency of the energy sector we find however that the magnitude of the income elasticity varies substantially between greece and other oecd countries

the wages of dishonesty the supply of cheating under high powered incentives we use a novel design to identify how dishonesty changes through a broad reward range that at the high end exceeds participants average daily wages using a sample of online indian workers who earn bonuses based on six simultaneous coin flips we show that the relationship between dishonesty and financial rewards depends on the incentive range we find two novel effects as incentives exceed those used in most prior research first dishonesty increases and reaches its maximum as rewards increase from 0 50 to 3 per reported head and as earnings reach 15 indicating that rewards can indeed motivate more cheating when large enough more importantly we show that dishonesty declines at the highest reward levels up to 5 per head as individuals appear to engage in lower magnitudes of dishonesty we detail how our results could be explained by a reference dependent utility with internal costs of dishonesty that are convex in the magnitude of the lie and show survey and simulation based evidence that support this explanation

carbon dioxide emissions allocation a review carbon dioxide co2 emissions allocation plays a fundamental role in determining reduction responsibility at economy level or emission permits at firm level past decades have seen the development and applications of various methods for co2 emissions allocation this paper provides a literature review of co2 emissions allocation with emphasis on the evolution of allocation methods used it begins with a summary of the most popular allocation principles and criteria that lay a foundation for the development of allocation methods we then classify the existing allocation methods into four groups namely indicator optimization game theoretic and hybrid approaches the main features and findings of past studies are identified and summarized while the fairness principle prevails in earlier studies the efficiency principle has been found to receive increasing attention recently we also present a comparison of the empirical results based on ten popular indicator methods to show how indicator choice affects the allocation results issues related to selecting appropriate methods in co2 emissions allocation are finally discussed further research may be carried out to strike a balance between fairness and efficiency so that the allocation results become more widely acceptable and economically feasible

effect of lengthening the school day on mother s labor supply this article examines how a policy oriented toward a specific group within the population can have collateral effects on the economic decisions of other groups in 1996 the chilean government approved the extension of the school day from half to full day school this article exploits the quasi experimental nature of the reform s implementation by time municipality and age targeting of the program in order to examine how the maternal labor supply is affected by the childcare subsidy implicit in the lengthening of the school day using data from the chilean socioeconomic household survey and administrative data from the ministry of education for 1990 2011 the authors estimate that on average there is a 5 percent increase in labor participation and employment rates of single mothers with eligible children between 8 and 13 years old with no younger children who are the group that would be mainly affected by the policy no significant labor supply responses are detected among others mothers with eligible children

income money ethic pay satisfaction commitment and unethical behavior is the love of money the root of evil for hong kong employees this study examines a model involving income the love of money pay satisfaction organizational commitment job changes and unethical behavior among 211 full time employees in hong kong china direct paths suggested that the love of money was related to unethical behavior but income money was not indirect paths showed that income was negatively related to the love of money that in turn was negatively related to pay satisfaction that in turn was negatively associated with unethical behavior pay satisfaction was positively related to organizational commitment thus the love of money is the root of evil but money is not

the future of u s natural gas production use and trade two computable general equilibrium models one global and the other providing u s regional detail are applied to analysis of the future of u s natural gas the focus is on uncertainties including the scale and cost of gas resources the costs of competing technologies the pattern of greenhouse gas mitigation and the evolution of global natural gas markets results show that the outlook for gas over the next several decades is very favorable in electric generation given the unproven and relatively high cost of other low carbon generation alternatives gas is likely the preferred alternative to coal a broad ghg pricing policy would increase gas use in generation but reduce use in other sectors on balance increasing its role from present levels the shale gas resource is a major contributor to this optimistic view of the future of gas gas can be an effective bridge to a lower emissions future but investment in the development of still lower co2 technologies remains an important priority international gas resources may well prove to be less costly than those in the u s except for the lowest cost domestic shale resources and the emergence of an integrated global gas market could result in significant u s gas imports

economic and emissions implications of load based source based and first seller emissions trading programs under california ab32 in response to assembly bill 32 the state of california considered three types of carbon emissions trading programs for the electric power sector load based source based and first seller they differed in terms of their point of regulation and in whether in state to out of state and out of state to in state electricity sales are regulated in this paper we formulate a market equilibrium model for each of the three approaches considering power markets transmission limitations and emissions trading and making the simplifying assumption of pure bilateral markets we analyze the properties of their solutions and show the equivalence of load based first seller and source based approaches when in state to out of state sales are regulated under the cap a numeric example illustrates the emissions and economic implications of the models in the simulated cases leakage eliminates most of the emissions reductions that the regulations attempt to impose furthermore contract reshuffling occurs to such an extent that all the apparent emissions reductions resulting from changes in sources of imported power are illusory in reality the three systems would not be equivalent because there will also be pool type markets and the three systems provide different incentives for participating in those markets however the equivalence results under our simplifying assumptions show that load based trading has no inherent advantage compared to other systems in terms of costs to consumers contrary to claims elsewhere

money for nothing universal child care and maternal employment abstract the strong correlation between child care and maternal employment rates has led previous research to conclude that affordable and readily available child care is a driving force both of cross country differences in maternal employment and of its rapid growth over the last decades we analyze a staged expansion of subsidized child care in norway our precise and robust difference in differences estimates reveal that there is little if any causal effect of subsidized child care on maternal employment despite a strong correlation instead of increasing mothers labor supply the new subsidized child care mostly crowds out informal child care arrangements suggesting a significant net cost of the child care subsidies

an electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response abstract energy policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and change the mix of electricity generation sources such as carbon cap and trade systems and renewable electricity standards can affect not only the source of electricity generation but also the price of electricity and consequently demand we develop an optimization model to determine the lowest cost investment and operation plan for the generating capacity of an electric power system the model incorporates demand response to price change in a case study for a u s state we show the price demand and generation mix implications of a renewable electricity standard and of a carbon cap and trade policy with and without initial free allocation of carbon allowances this study shows that both the demand moderating effects and the generation mix changing effects of the policies can be the sources of carbon emissions reductions and also shows that the share of the sources could differ with different policy designs the case study provides different results when demand elasticity is excluded underscoring the importance of incorporating demand response in the evaluation of electricity generation policies

low skilled immigration and parenting investments of college educated mothers in the united states evidence from time use data this paper uses several decades of u s time diary surveys to assess the impact of low skilled immigration through lower prices for commercial childcare on parental time investments using an instrumental variables approach that accounts for the endogenous location of immigrants we find that low skilled immigration to the united states has contributed to substantial reductions in the time allocated to basic childcare by college educated mothers of nonschool aged children however these mothers have not reduced the time allocated to more stimulating educational and recreational activities with their children understanding the factors driving parental time investments on children is crucial from a child development perspective

evaluating renewable portfolio standards and carbon cap scenarios in the u s electric sector this report examines the impact of renewable portfolio standards rps and cap and trade policy options on the u s electricity sector the analysis uses the national renewable energy laboratory s regional energy deployment system reeds model that simulates the least cost expansion of electricity generation capacity and transmission in the u s to examine the impact of a variety of emissions caps and rps scenarios both individually and combined the generation mix carbon emissions and electricity price are examined for various policy combinations simulated in the modeling

review of dynamic pricing programs in the u s and europe status quo and policy recommendations with the development of demand response dr technologies and increasing electricity demand dynamic pricing has been a popular topic in many countries this paper evaluates various dynamic pricing programs in the u s and europe and provides insights into various aspects including risks and rewards enabling technologies lower income groups and customer types surrounding programs such as time of use tou critical peak pricing cpp peak time rebates ptr and real time pricing rtp we conclude this paper with three main findings 1 policy coordination in promoting dynamic pricing programs between federal and state regulatory agencies is very critical 2 customer engagement is very important and can be enhanced via more accessible educational programs and policy adjustments and 3 more investment in related r d is required to construct a commonly accepted methodology for measuring the effectiveness of dynamic pricing programs

macroeconomic effects of efficiency policies for energy intensive industries the case of the uk climate change agreements 2000 2010 abstract this paper reports a study modeling the uk climate change agreements ccas and related energy efficiency policies for energy intensive industrial sectors bottom up estimates of the effects of these policies are introduced into the energy demand equations of a top down dynamic econometric model of the uk economy with fifty industrial sectors mdm e3 this allowed estimation of the effects of the reduced energy use for the outputs from the sectors i e the reductions in unit costs of the energy intensive industries on the demand for their outputs both in the uk and in the export markets the model is solved as a counterfactual 2000 2005 and as a projection 2005 2010 in a series of scenarios to allow estimation of the effects of the policies on inflation and growth as well as on overall energy demand and co 2 emissions the system wide final energy reductions is estimated to be 4 2 mtoe or 2 6 of total final demand for energy by 2010 including a rebound effect of 19 with negligible effects on inflation and a slight increase in economic growth through improved international competitiveness

effort sharing in ambitious global climate change mitigation scenarios abstract the post 2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts this paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050 either 10 or 50 from 1990 levels and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries the scenarios indicate a large low cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult the two effort sharing approaches triptych and multistage were compared in terms of equitability and coherence both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs there is however no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches as it can better accommodate national circumstances last challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented the findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap and trade system

ftt power a global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion abstract this work introduces a model of future technology transformations for the power sector ftt power a representation of global power systems based on market competition induced technological change itc and natural resource use and depletion it is the first component of a family of sectoral bottom up models of technology designed for integration into the global macroeconometric model e3mg itc occurs as a result of technological learning produced by cumulative investment and leads to highly nonlinear irreversible and path dependent technological transitions the model uses a dynamic coupled set of logistic differential equations as opposed to traditional bottom up energy models based on systems optimisation such differential equations offer an appropriate treatment of the times and structure of change involved in sectoral technology transformations as well as a much reduced computational load resource use and depletion are represented by local cost supply curves which give rise to different regional energy landscapes the model is explored for a single global region using two simple scenarios a baseline and a mitigation case where the price of carbon is gradually increased while a constant price of carbon leads to a stagnant system mitigation produces successive technology transitions leading towards the gradual decarbonisation of the global power sector

the rebound effect microeconomic definitions limitations and extensions abstract the rebound effect results in part from an increased consumption of energy services following an improvement in the technical efficiency of delivering those services this increased consumption offsets the energy savings that may otherwise be achieved if the rebound effect is sufficiently large it may undermine the rationale for policy measures to encourage energy efficiency the nature and magnitude of the rebound effect is the focus of long running dispute with energy economics this paper brings together previous theoretical work to provide a rigorous definition of the rebound effect to clarify key conceptual issues and to highlight the potential consequences of various assumptions for empirical estimates of the effect the focus is on the direct rebound effect for a single energy service indirect and economy wide rebound effects are not discussed beginning with khazzoom s original definition of the rebound effect we expose the limitations of three simplifying assumptions on which this definition is based first we argue that capital costs form an important part of the total cost of providing energy services and that empirical studies that estimate rebound effects from variations in energy prices are prone to bias second we argue that energy efficiency should be treated as an endogenous variable and that empirical estimates of the rebound effect may need to apply a simultaneous equation model to capture the joint determination of key variables third we explore the implications of the opportunity costs of time in the production of energy services and highlight the consequences for energy use of improved time efficiency the influence of time costs on the rebound effect and the existence of a parallel rebound effect with respect to time each of these considerations serves to highlight the difficulties in obtaining reliable estimates of the rebound effect and the different factors that need to be controlled for we discuss the implications of these findings for econometric studies and argue that several existing studies may overestimate the magnitude of the effect

child care costs as a barrier to employment for single and married mothers because women typically serve as primary care providers for their children female labor force participation behavior is likely to be affected significantly by the costs associated with replacing maternal care with nonmaternal care while some evidence of this phenomenon exists in the economics literature discrepancies across studies make it difficult to provide conclusive evidence of the employment effects of these child care costs this paper uses an improved sipp survey design to present new evidence regarding the degree to which child care prices impede mothers employment behavior with additional evidence of the difference in these elasticities across marital status empirical technique and equation specification this permits linking this paper to the existing evidence drawing the conclusion that child care prices impede mothers employment behavior significantly with single mothers exhibiting less responsiveness in their labor force participation behavior to child care price changes than marri

international equity and differentiation in global warming policy ne of the major obstacles to reaching a comprehensive agreement on global warming is the setting of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for individual countries long standing tensions between industrialized and developing countries have raised the issue of equity in burden sharing moreover individual industrialized nations have pleaded special circumstances and have sought differentiation in their obligations this paper analyzes alternative rules for distributing tradable carbon dioxide emissions permits a non linear programming model which distinguishes between allocation based and outcome based rules is used to analyze the relative welfare outcomes the model is applied to the world body of nations and yields several important policy implications

combining bottom up and top down abstract we motivate the formulation of market equilibrium as a mixed complementarity problem which explicitly represents weak inequalities and complementarity between decision variables and equilibrium conditions the complementarity format permits an energy economy model to combine technological detail of a bottom up energy system with a second best characterization of the over all economy our primary objective is pedagogic we first lay out the complementarity features of economic equilibrium and demonstrate how we can integrate bottom up activity analysis into a top down representation of the broader economy we then provide a stylized numerical example of an integrated model within both static and dynamic settings finally we present illustrative applications to three themes figuring prominently on the energy policy agenda of many industrialized countries nuclear phase out green quotas and environmental tax reforms

abatement costs of post kyoto climate regimes abstract this article analyses the abatement costs of three post kyoto regimes for differentiating commitments compatible with stabilising atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations at 550 ppmv co 2 equivalent in 2100 the three regimes explored are 1 the multi stage approach assumes a gradual increase in the number of parties involved who are adopting either emission intensity or reductions targets 2 the brazilian proposal approach i e the allocation or reductions based on countries contribution to temperature increase 3 contraction convergence with full participation in convergence of per capita emission allowances in 2050 the global costs increase up to about 1 of the world gdp ranging from 0 5 to 1 5 depending on baseline scenario and marginal abatement costs four groups of regions can be identified on the basis of similar costs expressed as the percentage of gdp these are 1 oecd regions with average costs 2 fsu the middle east and latin america with high costs 3 south east asia and east asia incl china with low costs and 4 south asia incl india and africa with net gains from emissions trading for most regimes the brazilian proposal approach gives the highest costs for groups 1 and 2 the distribution of costs for the contraction convergence approach highly depends on the convergence year the multi stage approach and contraction convergence convergence year 2050 seem to result in relatively the most even distribution of costs amongst all parties

measuring lying aversion abstract we introduce a new method for measuring the decision to lie in experiments in the game the decision to lie increases own payment independent of the counterpart s decision but potentially at a cost for the counterpart we identify at the individual level the decision to lie and measure how individuals react to different incentives to lie furthermore we investigate how lying behavior changes over time our method allows us to classify people into types including those who never lie those who always lie and those who react to incentives to lie we suggest this method as a useful instrument for examining factors that influence the decision to lie

emission allowances and mitigation costs of china and india resulting from different effort sharing approaches to meet ambitious global climate targets mitigation effort in china and india is necessary this paper presents an analysis of the scientific literature on how effort sharing approaches affect emission allowances and abatement costs of china and india we find that reductions for both china and india differ greatly in time across and within approaches and between concentration stabilisation targets for china allocated emission allowances in 2020 are substantially below baseline projections moreover they may be below 2005 emission levels particularly for low concentration targets below 490 ppm co2 eq effort sharing approaches based on allocating reduction targets lead to relatively lower reductions for china than approaches that are based on allocating emission allowances for 2050 emission allowances for china are 50 80 below 2005 levels for low concentration targets with minor differences between approaches still mitigation costs of china including emissions trading remain mostly below global average according to literature chinese emission allowances peak before 2025 2030 for low concentration targets india s emission allowances show high increases compared to 2005 levels if emission trading is allowed financial revenues from selling credits might compensate mitigation costs in most approaches even for low concentration targets india s emission allowances peak around 2030 2040 for all concentration targets c 2012 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

how much does honesty cost small bonuses can motivate ethical behavior although people generally try to avoid lying the lure of potential monetary payoffs often leads to unethical behavior the current research investigates whether small monetary rewards for honesty help people resist the temptations of larger incentives or whether they backfire and lead to even more dishonesty four experiments address these issues experiment 1 shows that a 1 bonus led people to act more honestly when they could have lied to obtain 4 an identical bonus however did not increase dishonesty experiment 2 uses a different context and again shows that a 1 bonus led people to act more honestly it also finds no evidence that this small payoff crowded out subsequent altruistic behavior experiment 3 shows that a 1 bonus increased people s honesty even when the payoffs for lying increased to 8 12 and 16 but not when the payoff for lying increased to 20 experiment 4 finds that smaller bonuses for honesty still had an impact although it tended to be somewhat weaker in addition com

an economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in japan an assessment using the e3mg macro econometric model abstract in this paper we consider future options for japanese energy and climate policy we assess the economic and environmental impacts of changing the share of electricity generated by nuclear power and varying the mid term ghg targets the quantitative approach we use is based on the global macro econometric e3mg model our analysis reveals that the cost of denuclearisation to japanese gdp is close to zero and for employment the impact is slightly positive our results also show a double dividend effect if revenue neutral carbon taxes are levied in order to meet the ghg reduction targets and this double dividend effect is largest in the scenarios without nuclear power however our analysis suggests that a very high carbon tax rate would have to be imposed in order to achieve a 25 reduction in ghg emissions in 2020 compared to 1990 levels while simultaneously phasing out nuclear power

optimal investment and uncertainty on china s carbon emission abatement abstract to realize environmentally sustainable development of the economy china has decided to cut carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gdp by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 compared with the level in 2005 based on china s emission abatement target this paper first analyzes enterprises emission reduction pathways in practical production processes and then develops a framework to derive the magnitude of investment required in each pathway in order to achieve the designated target at the minimal cost under the framework it is found that in the absence of policy guidance individual enterprises emission reduction investments deviate from the optimal level to correct the distortion an alternative option is provided meanwhile to ensure achievement of the emission reduction target a stochastic model is introduced to measure the uncertainty arising from emission abatement investment the results show that an appropriate emission abatement ratio can reduce the systemic risk of emission abatement finally a simulation is given to demonstrate the results derived from the stochastic model

employment of new mothers and child care choice differences by children s age working women frequently withdraw from the formal labor market for a period of time following their 1st birth while more than 1 3 of these mothers return to work within 3 months 1 2 remain out of formal employment 2 years after giving birth this paper examines the determinants of womens return to the labor market within 2 years of childbirth and the type of child care women choose employing data from the national longitudinal survey of youth the study found economic incentives to have powerful effects upon mothers work behavior despite cultural norms which may encourage mothers to care for their very young children mothers wages and other family income were important determinants the relationship between child care costs and work and child care choice change as children age with mothers being most sensitive to the psychic and financial costs of care in the months immediately following childbirth specifically the presence of mothers personal wages relates positively to early return to work and higher family income delays return to work greater child care tax credits increase the return to work within 3 months yet have little effect on later labor supply neither wages income nor tax credits significantly affected child care choice overall financial variables had less impact on type of child care than on the decision to work

does school quality matter returns to education and the characteristics of public schools in the united states this paper estimates the effects of school quality measured by the pupil teacher ratio average term length and relative teacher pay on the rate of return to education for men born between 1920 and 1949 using earnings data from the 1980 census we find that men who were educated in states with higher quality schools have a higher return to additional years of schooling rates of return are also higher for individuals from states with better educated teachers and with a higher fraction of female teachers holding constant school quality measures however we find no evidence that parental income or education affects average state level rates of return

does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings we establish that season of birth is related to educational attainment because of school start age policy and compulsory school attendance laws individuals born in the beginning of the year start school at an older age and can therefore drop out after completing less schooling than individuals born near the end of the year roughly 25 percent of potential dropouts remain in school because of compulsory schooling laws we estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings by using quarter of birth as an instrument for education the instrumental variables estimate of the return to education is close to the ordinary least squares estimate suggesting that there is little bias in conventional estimates every developed country in the world has a compulsory schooling requirement yet little is known about the effect these laws have on educational attainment and earnings 1 this paper exploits an unusual natural experiment to estimate the impact of compulsory schooling laws in the united states the experiment stems from the fact that children born in different months of the year start school at different ages while compulsory schooling laws generally require students to remain in school until their sixteenth or seventeenth birthday in effect the interaction of school entry requirements and compulsory schooling laws compel students born

pathways to a low carbon economy for the uk with the macro econometric e3mg model this paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep co2 reduction targets for the uk using a macro econometric hybrid model e3mg which stands for energy economy environment model at the global level the e3mg with the uk as one of its regions combines a top down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom up approach energy technology submodel etm for simulating the power sector which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy the etm submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies considering their economic technical and environmental characteristics three pathway scenarios cfh clc and cam simulate the co2 reduction by 40 60 and 80 by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario ref with no reduction target the targets are modeled as the uk contribution to an international mitigation effort such as achieving the g8 reduction targets which is a more realistic political framework for the uk to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone this paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on gdp and investment

opportunity cost for free allocations of emissions permits an experimental analysis an important feature of emissions trading is how emissions permits are allocated the choice between an auction and free allocation should not influence firms production choices nor consumer prices according to economic theory however many parties expect the method of allocation to affect product prices this paper describes an experimental investigation into price determination under a cap and trade program with different allocation methods participants initially display diverse pricing strategies however given a simple economic setting in which earnings depend on behavior we find that subjects learn to consider the opportunity cost of permits and overall behavior moves toward the economic prediction

european co2 prices and carbon capture investments we assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage ccs unit in a coal fired power plant operating in a carbon constrained environment we consider two sources of risk namely the price of emission allowance and the price of the electricity output first we analyse the performance of the eu market for co2 emission allowances specifically we focus on the contracts maturing in the kyoto protocol s first commitment period 2008 to 2012 and calibrate the underlying parameters of the allowance price process then we refer to the spanish wholesale electricity market and calibrate the parameters of the electricity price process we use a two dimensional binomial lattice to derive the optimal investment rule in particular we obtain the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately we further analyse the effect of changes in several variables on these critical prices among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy we conclude that at current permit prices immediate installation does not seem justified from a financial point of view this need not be the case though if carbon market parameters change dramatically carbon capture technology undergoes significant improvements and or a specific governmental policy to promote these units is adopted

integration of price depending demand reactions in an optimising energy emission model for the development of co2 mitigation strategies abstract optimising techno economic energy emission models are applied to develop and analyse cost effective co2 mitigation strategies on national and international levels one shortcoming of existing models is the missing integration of behavioural changes due to an increase in energy prices caused by the structural changes in the energy sector in order to reach the political targets for a co2 emission reduction therefore a partial equilibrium approach based on an iterative algorithm is created and applied in a co2 study for the federal republic of germany frg the results show that cost effective energy strategies avoiding co2 emissions have to consider the consumer price reactions

an analysis of the greek energy system in view of the kyoto commitments the current state of the greek energy system is analysed together with alternative energy policies a by sector analysis provides an overview of the inputs that have been used for this investigation a combination of a demand forecast performed together with an analysis based on the r markal and wasp iv models give an evaluation of the alternative policies to be applied and a determination of additional measures required in order to achieve the kyoto targets three scenarios are developed depicting the evolution of the greek energy system under alternative policies taking into consideration medium and high oil prices incremental investments and differential costs are then calculated between kyoto and non kyoto scenarios and they are compared to emission permits costs

comparison of different climate regimes the impact of broadening participation so far most climate mitigation studies look at climate policy strategies in a so called first best world i e using the least expensive emission reduction options in all world regions and sectors to explore the impact of limited participation of countries we have run a set of scenarios that explore the impact of introducing a carbon tax in oecd the bric countries brazil russia india and china and the rest of the world the results show that carbon taxes can effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions however if low greenhouse gas concentration levels are to be achieved early participation in some form of large developing countries is important to increase reduction potential it should be noted that global carbon taxes without additional assumptions lead to relatively high costs in low income regions cap and trade regimes have more flexibility to create a comparable distribution of costs amongst countries

a post kyoto analysis of the greek electric sector abstract the obligations resulting from the kyoto protocol kp are implemented by many participants e g greece by a combination of two methods a application of regional measures which restrict co2 emissions and b procurement of green certificates e g in a climate exchange market cex therefore the cost for compliance with the kp depends on the extent each method is used and also on the traded values in the cex the energy policy and planning to be considered are long term items and now extension of the kp to a post kp is discussed which reaches year 2020 in greece the electricity sector is with a weighted co2 contribution of 73 the dominantly emission sector the paper analyzes the cost and other merits of different scenarios for the expansion of electrical power system in greece for different scenarios the total cost of the electrical power system expansion is calculated as a function of the price of emission certificates it has been shown that there is a price of 27 5 tco2 above which specific mitigation measures may lead to cost optimum solutions a sensitivity analysis is also presented concerning the variation of key parameters like the participation in the system expansion of new supercritical coal units the price evolution of natural gas the res usage rate and the discount rates of the expansion investments results may be of interest for a decision on the cost optimum electrical power system expansion

risk aversion and co2 regulatory uncertainty in power generation investment policy and modeling implications abstract we consider a simulation of risk averse producers when making investment decisions in a competitive energy market who face uncertainty about future regulation of carbon dioxide emissions investments are made under regulatory uncertainty then the regulatory state is revealed and producers realize returns we consider anticipated taxes grandfathered permits and auctioned permits and show that some anticipated policies increase investment in the relatively dirty technology beliefs about the policy instrument that will be used to price carbon may be as important as certainty that carbon will be priced more generally a failure to consider risk aversion may bias policy analysis for the power sector

green fiscal reform in sweden econometric assessment of the carbon and energy taxation scheme abstract empirical econometric assessment of environmental policy effectiveness is capable of demonstrating which tools have been helping to achieve the desired effect of reducing harmful emissions or stimulating technological change this paper employs an econometric approach to analyse the effectiveness of energy and carbon taxes in sweden the country which was one of the first to introduce a co2 tax as well as an extensive environmental tax reform the results showed that taken in isolation a co2 tax was not sufficient to result in a significant change in co2 emissions in sweden except in the case of petrol on the other hand energy taxes for coal and lpg have been statistically significantly effective it was also clear that a technological innovation in the form of development of nuclear and hydro energy played a significant role in reducing co2 emissions and higher oil price was also important in reducing national co2 emissions in sweden at the same time renewable energy excluding hydro a more recent innovation has not been a statistically significant driver of co2 emissions reduction perhaps due to the fact that wind and solar play a much lesser role in sweden at the moment the net electricity imports from other countries have contributed positively towards reducing co2 emissions in sweden while the use of coal and biomass tended to increase co2 emissions compared to the ex ante modelling results from the literature review the findings confirm the role of environmental taxation as a viable policy instrument effective in reducing co2 emissions in sweden although point towards a more nuanced picture the paper raises important policy questions focused on the effectiveness of environmental policy tools

allocation of co2 emission permits economic incentives for emission reductions in developing countries the economic impacts on developing regions following a global cap and trade system for carbon dioxide are assessed through the use of an energy economy systems model both an equal per capita allocation and a contraction and convergence allocation with convergence of the per capita emissions by 2050 are shown to offer economic incentive for africa india and probably also latin america to accept binding emissions commitments under a 450 ppm carbon dioxide stabilization scenario the gain for latin america is mainly a result of increased export revenues from sales of bio fuels as a result of the climate policy it is on the other hand unlikely that these allocation approaches would offer an economic incentive for china to join the regime because of its high economic growth present higher per capita emissions than india and africa and more costly mitigation options than latin america a more stringent allocation for developing countries such as contraction with convergence of the per capita emissions by the end of this century is estimated to generate reduced net gains or increased net losses for the developing regions though africa is still expected to gain

schooling and labor market consequences of school construction in indonesia evidence from an unusual policy experiment between 1973 and 1978 the indonesian government engaged in one of the largest school construction programs on record combining differences across regions in the number of schools constructed with differences across cohorts induced by the timing of the program suggests that each primary school constructed per 1 000 children led to an average increase of 0 12 to 0 19 years of education as well as a 1 5 to 2 7 percent increase in wages this implies estimates of economic returns to education ranging from 6 8 to 10 6 percent

child care costs and family labor supply this paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of child care costs on family labor supply and the demand for market child care the model is a framework for cross section estimation of the effects of child care costs on labor supply and child care use it applies to households having young children requiring continuous care and in which both the mother and 1 other potential child care provider are present the 3 potential sources of child care are the mother the potential informal provider and the market using data from the 1980 baseline household survey of the employment opportunity pilot projects this empirical analysis uses a subsample of 6170 households in which there is a married woman under age 45 with her spouse present at the time of the survey at least 1 child under age 14 and nonmissing data on key variables results show that 1 higher market child care costs discourage women from working even when an informal source of care is available indicating that such informal care is an imperfect substitute for market care 2 a higher wage rate for the mother encourages her to work thus a higher wage rate increases the probability of using market child care 3 the number of children requiring care has a negative impact on the probability of the women working with the largest impact caused by younger children 4 nonwage income has a negative impact on the probability of the woman working and 5 black women are more likely to work than whites and are statistically more likely than whites to use market child care if they do work this family labor supply model predicts that the cost of market child care will affect household decisions on labor supply and child care use estimates of a qualitative choice model provide strong confirmation that child care costs affect such decisions the responsiveness of the labor supply of mothers to child care costs demonstrated in this study indicate that such subsidies do have their intended effect of encouraging labor supply the fact that a large proportion of current child care subsidies benefit primarily middle and upper income families via the income tax credit suggests that the labor supply effets of such subsidies may in practice be stronger for less needy families than for low income families employer subsidized child care may become an increasingly popular tool for attracting mothers into the labor force

emissions trading and investment decisions in the power sector a case study in finland abstract organizations which consider investment in or divestment of power production licences capacity within the european community are exposed to the impacts of the european union emission allowance trading scheme eu ets in this paper the consequences of the eu ets on investment decisions are explored in a country specific setting in finland first we review the general mechanisms through which the eu ets influences size timing and cashflows of an investment next we discuss the projected changes in finnish power producers investment environment and examine the financial impacts due to the eu ets on a case investment decision a hypothetical condensing power plant 250 mwe the standard discounted cash flow dcf analysis is extended to take into account the value of two real options the option to wait and the option to alter operating scale in a quantitative investment appraisal the impact of emissions trading not only depends on the expected level of allowance prices but also on their volatility and correlation with electricity and fuel prices the case study shows that the uncertainty regarding the allocation of emission allowances is critical in a quantitative investment appraisal of fossil fuel fired power plants

a structural model of labor supply and child care demand this paper specifies and estimates a structural model in which the decision to purchase market child care and the quality purchased is made simultaneously with the employment decision of the mother separate analyses are performed for married mothers and single mothers the structural estimates are used to simulate the effects and costs of changes in the federal child care tax credit the simulations indicate that a refundable child care tax credit would distribute child care benefits more equally across the population by increasing the shares of subsidies received by low income families and would induce a considerable increase in expenditures on market child care labor supply also increases but by considerably less than child care expenditures a surprising result is that despite large increases in child care

intermediate steps towards the 2000 w society in switzerland an energy economic scenario analysis abstract in the future sustainable development under the umbrella of the 2000 w society could be of major interest could the target of the 2000 w society i e a primary energy per capita pec consumption of 2000 w be realized until 2050 various combinations of pec and co2 targets are tested and the additional costs to be paid by the society are estimated the assessment is carried out with the swiss markal model a bottom up energy system model projecting future technology investments for switzerland the analysis reveals that the 2000 w society should be seen as a long term goal for all contemplated scenarios a pec consumption of 3500 w per capita w cap is feasible in the year 2050 however strong pec consumption targets can reduce co2 emissions to an equivalent of 5 per decade at maximum for stronger co2 emission reduction goals corresponding targets must be formulated explicitly at an oil price of 75 us 2000 bbl in 2050 the additional cumulative discounted costs to reach a 10 co2 reduction per decade combined with a 3500 w per capita target amount to about 40 billion us 2000 on the contrary to reach pure co2 reduction targets is drastically cheaper challenging the vision of the 2000 w society

capacity expansion of power generation systems with uncertainty in the prices of primary energy resources in capacity expansion studies of power generation systems the uncertainty in the prices of the primary energy resources is a major concern the approach presented in this paper accounts for this uncertainty by mapping the probability distribution of the installed capacity for any given distribution of the fuel prices given the probability density function and the cumulative distribution of the installed capacity a variety of performance measures is derived including the expected value the mode and the variance of the installed capacity and the expected total costs results are obtained analytically for a 2 unit system using a breakeven point analysis approach to find the optimal mix for any given set of fuel prices under the assumption of normally distributed primary energy prices

preschool and maternal labour market outcomes evidence from a regression discontinuity design in developing countries employment rates for mothers with young children are relatively low this study analyzes how maternal labor market outcomes in argentina are affected by the preschool attendance of their children using pooled household surveys we show that 4 year olds with birthdays on june 30 have sharply higher probabilities of preschool attendance than children born on july 1 given enrollment age rules regression discontinuity estimates using this variation suggest that preschool attendance of the youngest child in the household increases the probability of full time employment and weekly hours of maternal employment we find no effect of preschool attendance on maternal labor outcomes for children who are not the youngest in the household