explaining european union citizens trust in the european central bank in normal and crisis times we study the determinants of trust in the european central bank ecb as measured by the european commission s eurobarometer survey in particular during the global financial crisis and the european sovereign debt crisis we find that the fall in trust in the ecb in crisis times can be rather well explained based on the pre crisis determinants we also show that the fall in trust reflected the macroeconomic deterioration a more generalized fall in the trust in european institutions in the wake of the crisis and the severity of the banking sector s problems to which the ecb was associated in the public opinion

would helicopter money be spent new evidence for the netherlands according to some economists central banks should use helicopter money to boost inflation expectations based on a survey among dutch households we examine whether respondents would spend the

necessity as the mother of invention monetary policy after the crisis we examine recent changes in monetary policy due to the financial crisis and ask whether they are likely to be temporary or permanent we present evidence from two original surveys one of central bank governors the other of academic specialists we find that central banks in crisis countries are more likely to have resorted to new policies to have had discussions about changing mandates and to have communicated more extensively but thinking has changed more broadly for instance many central banks in non crisis countries also report implementing macro prudential measures looking forward we expect central banks to have broader mandates use macro prudential tools more widely and communicate more actively than before the crisis while there is no consensus yet about the usefulness of unconventional monetary policies we expect most of them will remain in central banks toolkits as governors who gain experience with a particular tool are more likely to assess that tool positively finally the relationship between central banks and their governments might well have changed with central banks crossing the line into the political realm more often than in the past

consumer spending and the economic stimulus payments of 2008 abstract we measure the change in household spending caused by receipt of the economic stimulus payments of 2008 using questions added to the consumer expenditure survey and variation from the ran

trust no more the impact of the crisis on citizens trust in central banks abstract citizens trust in economic institutions has generally declined since the onset of the crisis in particular eurobarometer surveys show that trust in the european central bank ecb has fallen significantly during the crisis this paper studies the determinants of public trust in the ecb over the lifetime of the euro net trust in the ecb has decreased significantly in those countries which have experienced increasing sovereign bond yields and financial market turbulence the finding that country specific variables affect citizens trust in the ecb may seem counterintuitive however it is consistent with strong evidence in the political science literature showing that domestic considerations play a significant role when citizens get an opportunity to express their opinion on eu matters

household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001 using questions expressly added to the consumer expenditure survey we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by the 2001 federal income tax rebates and test the permanent income hypothesis we exploit the unique randomized timing of rebate receipt across households households spent 20 to 40 percent of their rebates on nondurable goods during the three month period in which their rebates arrived and roughly two thirds of their rebates cumulatively during this period and the subsequent three month period the implied effects on aggregate consumption demand are substantial consistent with liquidity constraints responses are larger for households with low liquid wealth or low income

taste for variety and optimum production patterns in monopolistic competition abstract many positive and normative results in models using the monopolistic competition framework of the dixit stiglitz spence type depend on the value of an important parameter the taste for variety in these models however the taste for variety is linked in a close but arbitrary manner to the degree of market power of monopolistic competitors in this paper we make a simple modification to the basic model which clearly disentangles taste for variety and market power we then show how this changes the usual comparisons between social optimum and market outcomes

monopolistic competition as a foundation for keynesian macroeconomic models a general equilibrium macroeconomic model based on monopolistic competition is presented the model exhibits a traditional multiplier in the short run but due to free entry the multiplier disappears in the long run by construction all agents are fully rational the keynesian results are a consequence of the assumption of monopolistic competition which creates a divergence between optimal private behavior and optimal social behavior

taxation and consumption evidence from a representative survey of the german population abstractusing a representative survey of the german population this article studies self reported individual consumption responses to a recent exogenous payroll tax reduction about 55 of the respondents report that they spend the extra money indicating considerable potential for tax changes to affect consumption and economic activity our analysis of the socio demographic and economic covariates of consumption responses suggests among other effects that interest rates are related to consumption responses to tax changes and that households with higher income have a higher propensity to consume

the convergence of profits in the long run inter firm and inter industry comparisons this paper considers the extent to which the short run dynamic behavior and long run equilibrium levels of profitability differ among firms within the same industry movements in profits are modeled in terms of firm specific deviations from average industry profits and industry specific deviations from economy wide average returns applied to a sample of 217 large u k firms 1951 77 the results suggest that considerable heterogeneities exist within most industries that is most firms profitability experience differs considerably from those of their closest rivals copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

central bank communication and monetary policy a survey of theory and evidence over the last two decades communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy these real world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication mostly empirical and almost all of it written in this decade we survey this ever growing literature the evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank s toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions and potentially to help achieve central banks macroeconomic objectives however the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy

the effects of lottery prizes on winners and their neighbors evidence from the dutch postcode lottery each week the dutch postcode lottery pcl randomly selects a postal code and distributes cash and a new bmw to lottery participants in that code we study the effects of these shocks on lottery winners and their neighbors consistent with the life cycle hypothesis the effects on winners consumption are largely confined to cars and other durables consistent with the theory of in kind transfers the vast majority of bmw winners liquidate their bmws we do however detect substantial social effects of lottery winnings pcl nonparticipants who live next door to winners have significantly higher levels of car consumption than other nonparticipants

mortgage risks debt literacy and financial advice a limited understanding of mortgage contracts and the risks involved may have contributed to the outbreak of the 2007 2008 financial crisis we developed a special questionnaire relating mortgage loan decisions to financial knowledge and financial advice our results demonstrate that homeowners appear to be well aware of mortgage risks large loans relative to home value are perceived as riskier as are loans with large mortgage payments relative to income and loans linked to investment vehicles homeowners with riskier mortgages indicated that they could encounter financial problems should house prices or their income decline homeowners with relatively low debt literacy are more likely to take out traditional mortgages with principal repayments over the maturity of the loan riskier mortgages are more prevalent among homeowners with a better understanding of loan contracts financially less sophisticated homeowners consulting mortgage brokers too hold riskier mortgages

the effects of a money financed fiscal stimulus abstract i analyze the effects of a money financed fiscal stimulus and compare them with those resulting from a conventional debt financed stimulus i study the effects of both a tax cut and an increase in government purchases with and without a binding zero lower bound zlb on the nominal interest rate when the zlb is not binding a money financed fiscal stimulus is shown to have much larger multipliers than a debt financed fiscal stimulus that difference in effectiveness persists but is much smaller under a binding zlb nominal rigidities are shown to play a major role in shaping those effects

wealth shocks unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the great recession we use data from the 2009 internet survey of the health and retirement study to examine the consumption impact of wealth shocks and unemployment during the great recession in the us we find that many households experienced large capital losses in housing and in their financial portfolios and that a non trivial fraction of respondents have lost their job as a consequence of these shocks many households reduced substantially their expenditures we estimate that the marginal propensities to consume with respect to housing and financial wealth are 1 and 3 3 percentage points respectively in addition those who became unemployed reduced spending by 10 percent we also distinguish the effect of perceived transitory and permanent wealth shocks splitting the sample between households who think that the stock market is likely to recover in a year s time and those who don t in line with the predictions of standard models of intertemporal choice we find that the latter group adjusted much more than the former its spending in response to financial wealth shocks

monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand how important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output we ask the question at three levels can monopolistic competition by itself explain why aggregate demand movements affect output can it together with other imperfections generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot if so can it give an accurate account of the response of the economy to aggregate demand movements the answers are no yes and yes

homogeneous profit tax effects for heterogeneous firms in most countries profit taxation is probably much more relevant nowadays than trade liberalisation when it comes to firm level decisions about investment empirically firms are quite heterogeneous with regard to fixed costs the composition of assets tangible versus intangible machinery versus buildings etc and the financing of investments then even uniform changes in profit tax instruments cause heterogeneous responses of firm level effective tax rates and hence after tax profits we argue that with similar profit margins firms would then require pre tax profits to differ as well governments change statutory profit tax rates and by virtue of firms heterogeneity they cause stark selection effects which are mainly related to heterogeneous fixed rather than variable costs we compute costs of capital for a large sample of firms to illustrate how homogeneous changes in tax instruments hit firms differently using bureau van dijk s orbis database we illustrate that the effects of changes in statutory instruments have relatively large systematic variance components across industries within countries and also relatively large ones of firms within industries and countries

efficiency gaps love of variety and international trade we develop a general equilibrium monopolistic competition model of trade with technical heterogeneity among firms and countries with free entry technical asymmetries between firms result in the endogenous determination of the equilibrium average efficiency of the industry we show that trade reduces increases the minimum efficiency required to survive in the more less efficient country this has important welfare implications 1 contrary to the constant elasticity of substitution homogeneous firms model trade affects welfare even when there is no love of variety 2 there are circumstances in which trade liberalization leads to a loss of consumer welfare

on the concavity of the consumption function at least since keynes 1935 many economists have had the intuition that the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth declines as wealth increases nonetheless standard perfect certainty and certainty equivalent versions of intertemporal optimizing models of consumption imply a marginal propensity to consume that is unrelated to the level of household wealth we show that adding income uncertainty to the standard optimization problem induces a concave consumption function in which as keynes suggested the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth or transitory income declines with the level of wealth