time series based tests of the convergence hypothesis some positive results abstract using time series based tests proposed by bernard and durlauf 1996 and annual time series data 1900 1987 on several oecd countries the paper identifies bivariate convergence between belgium and the netherlands france and italy australia and the united kingdom and sweden and denmark

real convergence empirical evidence for latin america this article investigates the real convergence of 17 latin american countries to the us economy for the period 1950 to 2011 time series methods are used to test stochastic and convergence these methods include the possibility of one or two structural changes the results show that when endogenous structural changes are considered several latin american countries exhibit stochastic convergence nevertheless real convergence to the us is found only for three latin american countries chile costa rica and trinidad and tobago with these countries also presenting evidence of stochastic and convergence

electricity prices large scale renewable integration and policy implications abstract this paper investigates the effects of intermittent solar and wind power generation on electricity price formation in germany we use daily data from 2010 to 2015 a period with profound modifications in the german electricity market the most notable being the rapid integration of photovoltaic and wind power sources as well as the phasing out of nuclear energy in the context of a garch in mean model we show that both solar and wind power granger cause electricity prices that solar power generation reduces the volatility of electricity prices by scaling down the use of peak load power plants and that wind power generation increases the volatility of electricity prices by challenging electricity market flexibility

convergence and divergence in latin america 1970 1998 this paper examines the process of convergence in latin america over the period 1970 1998 there has been relatively little work on income convergence among developing countries in general and in latin america in particular even though many studies have examined convergence both within and among developed countries there is little support for the convergence hypothesis over the sample period as a whole although the beta coefficient is positive it is insignificant convergence is strong in the 1970s but by the 1990s it has disappeared there is no evidence of a narrowing in the cross country dispersion of income sigma convergence for the sample period as a whole the results offer little support for the neo classical growth model poorer countries have not grown faster than richer ones there is a strong case for strengthening regional development policy

the saving behaviour of a two person household the facts that wives are typically younger than their husbands and that women typically live longer than men imply that wives may have more incentive to save for old age than do husbands a theoretical model of the determination of household saving and portfolio choice is introduced which takes into account differences in preferences for saving the most important result is that the level and the composition portfolio of saving and the time path of consumption are dependent on the distribution of income within the household women typically live longer than men and wives are typically younger than their husbands these two facts imply that preferences about saving for old age in married households with forward looking members may differ between husband and wife this paper presents a theoretical analysis of saving and portfolio behaviour if the members of the household have differ ent preferences over future consumption as compared to current consump tion the analysis stands in contrast to unitary models of household intertemporal allocation which assume that the household has a single utility function thus this paper is a contribution in a novel context to the burgeoning literature on intra household decision making the base case analysis is for a simple two person husband and wife1 two period model in which there is only one asset saving it is assumed that because of the two facts given at the start of the introductory paragraph the husband discounts the future more than the wife in section ii the implications of a non cooperative decision making process for the base case are derived see ulph 1988 for a non cooperative model of demand and

convergence or divergence in latin america a time series analysis this article investigates the occurrence of per capita income convergence in 19 latin american countries we apply a time series approach to test for stochastic convergence and convergence based on structural breaks unit root tests where the dates of breaks are unknown and determined endogenously this approach is essential since it does not impose common break dates and parameter homogeneity among countries in fact the econometric methodology employed attempts to provide what was lacking in previous works as a consequence unlike prior studies the results indicate that there is substantial evidence in favor of conditional convergence in latin america we show that this evidence is even greater when analyzing south and central america separately

a theory of prostitution prostitution is low skill labor intensive female and well paid this paper proposes a marriage market explanation to this puzzle if a prostitute compromises her marriage market prospects she will have to be compensated for forgone marriage market opportunities we discuss the link between poverty and prostitution and show that prostitution may decrease with male income if wives and prostitutes are drawn from the same pool of women we point to the role of male sex ratios and males in transit in sustaining high levels of prostitution and we discuss possible reasons for its low reputation and implications for marriage patterns

divorce risk wages and working wives a quantitative life cycle analysis of female labour force participation this article develops a quantitative life cycle model to study the increase in married women s labour force participation lfp we calibrate the model to match key life cycle statistics for the 1935 cohort and use it to assess the changed environment faced by the 1955 cohort we find that a higher divorce probability and changes in wage structure are each able to explain a large proportion of the lfp increase higher divorce risk increases lfp not because the latter contributes to higher marital assets or greater labour market experience however instead it is the result of conflicting spousal preferences towards the adjustment of marital consumption in the face of increased divorce risk the dramatic increase in the second half of the twentieth century in married women s labour force participation lfp has given rise to a large and growing literature that explores the roles of the multiple forces that led to this evolution some explanations have emphasised technological change in the household greenwood et al 2005 or in medical contraceptive technology goldin and katz 2002 albanesi and olivetti 2009a b knowles 2007 other explanations have emphasised changes in the wage

financial development and economic growth convergence or divergence abstract this study tests for convergence in financial development and economic growth by incorporating the interaction between the real and financial sectors into an otherwise traditional test for convergence the results show strong evidence for conditional convergence middle and high income countries conditionally converge to parallel growth paths not only in per capita gdp but also in financial development the mutually reinforcing relationship between financial development and economic growth is stronger in the early stage of economic development and this relationship diminishes as sustained economic growth gets under way as such low income countries with a relatively well developed financial sector are more likely to catch up to their middle and high income counterparts and those with a relatively under developed financial sector are more likely to be trapped in poverty this finding explains the observed great divergence between poor and rich countries another finding is that while human capital is more important to growth in the early stage of economic development economic freedom becomes more important in the later stage

is the allocation of resources within the household efficient new evidence from a randomized experiment i study whether households make pareto efficient intrahousehold resource allocation decisions combining randomized variation in women s income generated by the evaluation of the mexican progresa program with variation attributable to localized rainfall shocks as distribution factors in the collective model i find evidence favoring pareto optimality more specifically female specific income changes have positive effects on children s goods expenditures whereas changes due to rainfall shocks have a smaller influence on household public goods expenditures the evidence is consistent with female partners having greater sensitivity to own income changes and norms that oblige women to devote their earnings to meet collective consumption needs

are political freedoms converging this article tests for convergence o f freedom using freedom house s 2002 indices of political rights and civil liberties in 136 countries from 1972 to 2001 time series tests using structural breaks are employed to test for stochastic and beta convergence cross section tests are performed to examine the impact of legal systems education natural resources economic freedom and other variables we find that political freedoms are converging for one half of the countries additionally we find that the level of freedom is significantly related to the legal system education economic freedom and natural resources

the marriage market labor supply and education choice we develop an equilibrium life cycle model of education marriage labor supply and consumption in a transferable utility context individuals start by choosing their investments in education anti

modeling long run behavior with the fractional arima model abstract when modeling long run behavior fractional arima models can give insights unobtainable with the nonfractional arima models as an application the deterministic trend and unit root with drift models are nested in the fractional arima model this allows testing between the two models based on estimated parameter values this test is applied to postwar us quarterly real gnp the test concludes that gnp is consistent with both models the estimated fractional parameter is significantly smaller than reported in diebold and rudebusch 1989 the difference is explained by bias in the previous estimates relationships with the cumulative impulse response and spectral density at frequency zero are noted

static and intertemporal household decisions we discuss the most popular static and dynamic models of household behavior our main objective is to explain which aspects of household decisions different models can account for using this insight we describe testable implications identification results and estimation findings obtained in the literature particular attention is given to the ability of different models to answer various types of policy questions

economic curtailment of intermittent renewable energy sources abstract in a power system featuring a large share of intermittent renewables and inflexible thermal generators efficiency gains could be achieved by curtailing the production of renewables however as renewables feature very low variable production costs over curtailment can be costly in this article we use a stylised analytical model to assess this trade off we show that while curtailing renewables when their variability is high and the system flexibility is low can reduce generation costs the different stakeholders will not necessarily benefit from such measures as a consequence leaving this decision to generators will lead to a sub optimal level of curtailment either incentives to provide accurate res availability forecasts or alternatively centralised forecasting should be put into place to solve the resulting problem of asymmetry of information

changing the rules midway the impact of granting alimony rights on existing and newly formed partnerships this article analyses the effect of a reform granting alimony rights to cohabiting couples in canada a collective household model with a matching framework predicts that changes in alimony laws would affect existing couples and couples to be differently for existing couples it benefits the intended beneficiary but for couples not yet formed it generates offsetting intra household transfers and lower intra marital allocations for the beneficiary our empirical analyses confirm these predictions among couples united before the reform obtaining the right to petition for alimony led women to lower their labour force participation but not among newly formed cohabiting couples

a capacity investment model of wind power with uncertain supply price under high penetration rate abstract with the rapid development of renewable energy the proportion of wind power in power supply has grown significantly also it influences the power price fluctuation since the marginal cost of wind power is almost zero the growth of wind power s penetration rate has led to a crowding out effect and challenged traditional power generation technology substantially reducing the power price in the market in perfect competition market the real time balance between supply and demand of power is regulated by the real time power price fluctuation so this paper models the intermittence of wind power as uncertain supply and develops a capacity investment model under the uncertainties of both supply and demand we introduce priority dispatch elasticity to describe the crowding out effect and take the power price to be endogenous in order to model the situation of high penetration rate we compare the optimal wind power capacity decision under the strategy of priority grid connection and abandoned power management our results show that optimal capacity investment is inversely related to priority dispatch elasticity under both strategies however the profit from power generation is always higher when adopting the abandoned power management strategy

gender agricultural production and the theory of the household virtually all models of the household assume that the allocation of resources is pareto efficient within many african households agricultural production occurs on many plots controlled by different members of the household pareto efficiency implies that factors should be allocated efficiently across these plots i find in contrast that plots controlled by women are farmed much less intensively than similar plots within the household controlled by men the estimates imply that about 6 percent of output is lost because of inefficient factor allocation within the household the paper suggests a new approach to modeling intrahousehold allocation consistent with the empirical results

convergence in brazil recent trends and long run prospects this paper applies to the analysis of the interstate income distribution in brazil a set of techniques that have been widely used in the current empirical literature on growth and convergence usual measures of dispersion in the interstate income distribution the coefficient of variation and theil s index suggest that sigma convergence was an unequivocal feature of the regional growth experience in brazil between 1970 and 1986 after 1986 the process of convergence seems however to have slowed down almost to a halt a standard growth model is shown to fit the regional data well and to explain a substantial amount of the variation in growth rates providing estimates of the speed of conditional beta convergence of approximately 3 p a different estimates of the long run distribution implied by the recent growth trends point towards further reductions in the interstate income inequality but also suggest that the relative per capita incomes of a significant number of states and the number of very

intra household resource allocation an inferential approach if household income is pooled and then allocated to maximize welfare then income under the control of mothers and fathers should have the same impact on demand with survey data on family health and nutrition in brazil the equality of parental income effects is rejected unearned income in the hands of a mother has a bigger effect on her family s health than income under the control of a father for child survival probabilities the effect is almost twenty times bigger the common preference or neoclassical model of the household is rejected if unearned income is measured with error and income is pooled then the ratio of maternal to paternal income effects should be the same equality of the ratios cannot be rejected there is also evidence for gender preference mothers prefer to devote resources to improving the nutritional status of their daughters fathers to sons

wind power integration and power system flexibility an empirical analysis of extreme events in germany under the new negative price regime abstract in this article the flexibility of the german power market with respect to the integration of an increasing share of electricity from renewable energy sources was analysed flexibility limiting system components which cause negative prices are explained and illustrated for the german market the decision of the european energy exchange in leipzig to allow negative price bids is then explained the empirical data illustrate the flexibility of conventional generating capacities in germany from october 2008 to december 2009 of the 86 h of negative spot prices 19 h were significantly negative with prices of at least 100 mwh these extreme hours were analysed in greater detail by the examination of different system components thereby load wind power infeed and conventional generation by fuel type were observed as well as the market for negative tertiary reserve as indicators for market tightness although the market situations were found to be severe under the current conditions it could have been much worse in order to enable the market to clear at all times policy recommendations are provided and long run implications of an increasing res e share on the conventional generation capacity are discussed the article concludes with an outlook on additional power system flexibility options

fractional beta convergence abstract unit roots in output an exponential 2 rate of convergence and no change in the underlying dynamics of output seem to be three stylized facts that cannot go together this paper extends the solow swan growth model allowing for cross sectional heterogeneity in this framework aggregate shocks might vanish at a hyperbolic rather than at an exponential rate this implies that the level of output can exhibit long memory and that standard tests fail to reject the null of a unit root despite mean reversion exploiting secular time series properties of gdp we conclude that traditional approaches to test for uniform conditional and unconditional convergence suit first step approximation we show both theoretically and empirically how the uniform 2 rate of convergence repeatedly found in the empirical literature is the outcome of an underlying parameter of fractional integration strictly between 1 2 and 1 this is consistent with both time series and cross sectional evidence recently produced

how to deal with negative power price spikes flexible voluntary curtailment agreements for large scale integration of wind for the large scale integration of electricity from renewable energy sources res e the german system seems to reach its limits in 2009 the electricity wholesale market experienced serious negative prices at times of high wind and low demand the feed in system in germany consists of a fixed feed in price a take off obligation and a res priority rule and in practice only very restrictive use of res e curtailment exactly the latter is the problem we argue that the overall performance of the system would improve seriously by lifting the restrictions on the use of voluntary curtailment agreements while retaining the priority rule as such since generators of res e can only improve under this system reform investment conditions improve leading to higher installed res e capacity this in turn implies that reduced wind output due to curtailment can actually be offset by higher wind output in all periods in which there is no problem

wind and solar energy curtailment a review of international experience greater penetrations of variable renewable generation on some electric grids have resulted in increased levels of curtailment in recent years studies of renewable energy grid integration have found that curtailment levels may grow as the penetration of wind and solar energy generation increases this paper reviews international experience with curtailment of wind and solar energy on bulk power systems in recent years with a focus on eleven countries in europe north america and asia it examines levels of curtailment the causes of curtailment curtailment methods and use of market based dispatch as well as operational institutional and other changes that are being made to reduce renewable energy curtailment

family policy with non cooperative families we consider a non cooperative model of a family s time allocation between market work and providing a home produced family public good such as child care or care for the elderly the model predicts underprovision of the public good because of crowding out this does not necessarily warrant public provision in contrast to other approaches in family economics we find that attempts to redistribute between spouses may alter the final distribution within the marriage and that such a policy may be pareto improving we also find that some degree of progressivity of the income tax can be welfare improving

what do we learn about consumer demand patterns from micro data the aim of this paper is to assess the importance of using micro level data in the econometric analysis of consumer demand to do this we utilize a time series of repeated cross sections covering some 4 000 households in each of 15 years employing a number of different aggregation procedures we conclude that aggregate data alone are unlikely to produce reliable estimates of structural price and income coefficients however once certain aggregation factors as well as trend and seasonal components are included an aggregate model is not necessarily outperformed across all demand equations in terms of forecasting ability jel d12 c52 c31 the purpose of this paper is to develop a complete consumer demand system based on a time series of individual household data and to use it to measure the biases introduced into the study of consumer de mand behavior when aggregate data are used in place of the appropriate microeco nomic data we assess the suitability of ag gregate data through the impact on income and price elasticities and by evaluating the ability of both micro and aggregate based models to forecast aggregate consumer de mand the biases introduced by the use of aggregate data depend upon the way that household characteristics interact with in come and price effects and on departures of demand systems from linearity we explore the structure of microeconomic demand sys tems and the role of household characteris tics in the behavior of consumer demand both for the light this may shed on the pattern of future demands and for the im plications this behavior has for issues of aggregation consumer demand patterns typically found in micro data sets vary considerably across households with different household characteristics and with different levels of income we model this variability by making intercept and slope parameters in the budget share equations of our demand sys tem depend on household characteristics and by allowing for nonlinear total log expenditure terms in fact in theory consistent demand systems it is total ex penditure rather than disposable income that is allocated across goods we find that this general framework leads to a well specified data coherent demand system which is a quadratic extension of the popu lar almost ideal model of angus s deaton and john muellbauer 1980 the micro level estimates are shown to be sensitive to the treatment of endogeneity of total expen diture and to the specification of interaction terms with household characteristics in ad dition this specification is also shown to possess many attractive features for the evaluation of aggregate models