cheap tuesdays and the demand for cinema many movie markets are characterised by extensive uniform pricing practices hampering the ability to estimate price elasticities of demand australia presents a rare exception with most cinemas offering cheap tuesday ticket prices we exploit this feature to estimate a random coefficients discrete choice model of demand for the sydney region in 2007 we harness an extensive set of film cinema and time dependent characteristics to build a rich demand system our results are consistent with a market expansion effect from the practice of discounted tuesday tickets and suggest that cinemas could profit from price dispersion by discounts based on observable characteristics

capital flows and gdp in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers abstract this paper provides a global analysis of capital flow impacts on gdp for selected emerging economies as additional control variables we also include currency reserves and effective exchange rates in our analysis we distinguish between gross and net capital flows and also assess the impact of both fdi and portfolio flows accounting for the fact that common factors have been the main drivers of capital flows while country specific determinants pull factors drive the response to such shocks we analyze shocks to country groups but consider country specific responses based on a bayesian time varying panel var framework in the spirit of canova and ciccarelli 2009 based on a sample of 24 economies our results show a robust positive effect of capital flows on gdp except for korea both gross and net capital flows display a positive impact for around two quarters the impact of effective exchange rates on gdp hardly offers an explanation for a possible transmission of capital flow effects with effective depreciations both positively and negatively linked to gdp we also find that the effect of net portfolio flows is even more positive compared to net fdi flows for emerging economies finally we provide evidence that the importance of global factors increases in times of crises

trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption investors hold a substantially larger proportion of their wealth portfolios in domestic assets than standard portfolio theory would suggest a phenomenon called equity home bias in the absence of this bias investors would optimally diversify domestic output risk using foreign equities therefore consumption growth rates would tend to co move across countries even when output growth rates do not empirically however consumption growth rates tend to have a lower correlation across countries than do output growth rates a phenomenon i call consumption home bias in this paper i discuss these two biases and their potential relationship as suggested by the literature

advertising learning and consumer choice in experience good markets an empirical examination this article empirically analyzes different effects of advertising in a nondurable experience good market a dynamic learning model of consumer behavior is presented in which i allow both informative effects of advertising and prestige or image effects of advertising this learning model is estimated using consumer level panel data tracking grocery purchases and advertising exposures over time empirical results suggest that in this market advertising s primary effect was that of informing consumers the estimates are used to quantify the value of this information to consumers and evaluate the welfare implications of an alternative advertising regulatory regime

international business cycles and financial frictions abstract in this study i build a two country dsge model to investigate the impact of financial integration on business cycle co movements with financial frictions in this model the investor can borrow but faces a collateral constraint that is tied to the value of her capital and real estate holdings i show quantitatively that the degree of financial integration and real exchange rate adjustment are important for understanding business cycle synchronization under different types of shocks with the technology shock greater financial integration leads to lower cross country correlations while with the financial shock greater financial integration leads to stronger cross country correlations these findings are consistent with the empirical evidence from the literature

political risk and the benefits of international portfolio diversification this paper examines the benefits of portfolio investment in the stock markets of politically risky countries by evaluating the effects of political risk constraints on the performance of a portfolio of international stocks we use monthly data on political risk ratings and stock returns for a sample of thirty six countries from april 1982 to december 1991 ex post and ex ante portfolio selection strategies are developed to assess the gains from international diversification efficient sets are derived using a quadratic programming technique we use four ex ante portfolio strategies whose optimal portfolio weights are those of the equally weighted portfolio the minimum variance portfolio the certainty equivalence tangency portfolio and the bayes stein portfolio the empirical findings based on the performance tests of jobson and korkie 1981 suggest that diversification among politically risky countries improves the risk return characteristics of optimal portfolios however the most striking benefit of the inclusion of politically risk countries in an international portfolio is the reduction in overall portfolio risk

hedging crude oil using refined product a regime switching asymmetric dcc approach abstract in this paper we explore the strategy on hedging crude oil using refined product we develop a regime switching asymmetric dcc rs adcc model by taking into account both of regime switching and asymmetry in correlations our out of sample findings indicate that rs adcc displays greater hedging effectiveness than some conventional multivariate garch heating oil can better hedge crude oil than gasoline

emerging markets and portfolio foreign exchange risk an empirical investigation using a value at risk decomposition technique abstract the correlation between a portfolio s equity and foreign exchange components plays a role in reducing foreign exchange exposure investors must account for this correlation when determining the extent of foreign exchange risk in emerging market equity portfolio investments this study employs a var risk factor mapping technique under the variance covariance var approach to decompose portfolio risk in argentina brazil china india mexico and russia for comparison purposes the same technique is used to decompose portfolio risk in the us the study is conducted from the perspective of a european equity investor with a portfolio of equities in each country by employing the var decomposition technique the correlation between a portfolio s equity and foreign exchange components is taken into account and portfolio foreign exchange risk is extracted from portfolio systematic risk our results uniquely demonstrate significant variation in foreign exchange risk in emerging markets

bose einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in the motion picture industry audiences discover what films they like and spread the word information feedback produces bose einstein dynamics in the motion picture box office revenue distribution information cascades generate box office hits and flops the revenue distribution evolves recursively over the run as a mixture of the opening and a stochastic competition among films the motion picture run is decentralized adaptive and self organizing semistationary admission prices local information and contingency rich contracts match the film rental price and the supply of theatrical engagements to demand copyright 1996 by royal economic society

international capital flows under dispersed private information abstract it is well established that private information is critical to our understanding of asset prices in this paper we argue that it also affects international capital flows and use a simple two country dsge model to illustrate its impact we show that private information i increases the volatility of both net and gross capital flows ii leads to a high correlation between capital inflows and outflows iii leads to a disconnect of capital flows from observed macro fundamentals and iv implies that capital flows contain information about the future macro fundamentals we also show that dispersed information affects capital flows both through asset prices and directly so that the impact on flows is not just the mirror image of the impact on prices

does twitter chatter matter online reviews and box office revenues with a rapid rise of text based social media and online word of mouth wom activity millions of people express their thoughts and opinions on a variety of topics considering that nowadays wom is

equity home bias and corporate disclosure abstract i show that more comprehensive corporate disclosure reduces investors uncertainty about domestic companies payoffs at no cost thereby decreasing investors equity home bias toward a country since investors should base their investment decisions on valid and easily interpretable company information only more comprehensive disclosure will reduce the home bias only if domestic securities law is sufficiently stratified and domestic companies use international accounting standards using panel data for 38 countries from 2003 to 2008 i find that more comprehensive disclosure reduces investors home bias though significantly only for countries that sufficiently enforce their securities law and implement international accounting standards

optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops abstract we analytically derive optimal central bank portfolios in a minimum variance framework with two assets and transaction demands caused by sudden stops in capital inflows in this model transaction demands become less important relative to traditional portfolio objectives as debt to reserve ratios decrease we empirically estimate optimal dollar and euro shares for 23 emerging market countries and find that optimal reserve portfolios are dominated by anchor currencies and at current debt to reserve ratios introducing transaction demand has a relatively modest effect for most countries we find that in general the dollar acts as a safe haven currency during sudden stops for country specific and global sudden stops increasing the optimal share of dollar bonds in central bank portfolios correspondingly our model predicts that dollar shares should decline as debt to reserve ratios fall as observed in recent data we also find that the denomination of foreign currency debt has little importance for optimal reserve portfolios

network effects bargaining power and product review bias theory and evidence i construct a theoretical framework for expert product reviews and demonstrate how the existence of positive network effects can make review inflation profitable even when consumers are rational this finding moreover suggests that product reviews may serve as a coordination mechanism for early adopters in an empirical application to the video game journalism industry i find evidence that reviews are inflated for games produced by large firms and for those that are part of pre existing game franchises additionally i find variation in inflation across genres that would be inconsistent with common alternative theories of inflation such as consumer naivete

learning from the crowd regression discontinuity estimates of the effects of an online review database internet review forums increasingly supplement expert opinion and social networks in informing consumers about product quality however limited empirical evidence links digital word of mouth to purchasing decisions we implement a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of positive yelp com ratings on restaurant reservation availability an extra half star rating causes restaurants to sell out 19 percentage points 49 more frequently with larger impacts when alternate information is more scarce these returns suggest that restaurateurs face incentives to leave fake reviews but a rich set of robustness checks confirm that restaurants do not manipulate ratings in a confounding discontinuous manner

what s an oscar worth this article examines the impact of an academy award nomination and award for best picture best actor actress and best supporting actor actress on a film s i market share of theaters ii average revenue per screen and iii its probability of survival the model is estimated using weekly box office data for a matched sample of nominated and non nominated films the results indicate substantial financial benefits for a nomination and award for best picture and best actor actress the structure of rewards is consistent with that found in two stage single elimination tournaments

risk versus ambiguity and international security design abstract we study portfolio allocation and characterize contracts issued by firms in the international financial market when investors exhibit ambiguity aversion and perceive ambiguity in assets issued in foreign locations increases in the variance of their risky production process cause firms to issue assets with a higher variable payment equity hikes in investors perceived ambiguity have the opposite effect and lead to less risk sharing entrepreneurs from capital scarce countries finance themselves relatively more through debt than equity they are thus exposed to higher volatility per unit of consumption the expected returns on capital invested in capital scarce countries may also be lower such results do not hold in the absence of ambiguity that is when investors only perceive risk new facts uncovered from cross country firm level data are consistent with our model

buffer stocks and naive expectations in a non walrasian dynamic macromodel stability cyclicity and chaos in their pioneering work honkapohja ito 1980 constructed a non walrasian macromodel with inventory dynamics some of their assumptions are modified in this paper e g the expected demand for goods is defined by previous rather than actual demand the modified model yields results which are both similar and dissimilar to those of honkapohja and ito for example the keynesian unemployment equilibrium remains invariant but the corresponding stability condition becomes milder the chaotic behavior of the unstable systems is also analyzed

currency matters analyzing international bond portfolios abstract bonds denominated in the investor s currency are special we show this indirectly in a global dataset of bilateral bond holdings indirectly because the global holdings dataset does not differentiate by currency denomination and then more directly in datasets of us holdings of foreign bonds that do differentiate by currency we find that the share of a country s bonds denominated in investors currencies is an important determinant of the amount of cross border investment it receives factors associated with greater or less cross border investment in bonds differ by currency denomination and one phenomenon of international portfolios the ever present home bias in some cases actually disappears when bonds are denominated in the investor s currency suggesting that the home bias is to some extent a home currency bias

the impact of mandatory disclosure laws on product choices an analysis of the salad dressing market abstract the nutrition labeling and education act nlea requires most food products to include a nutrition label prior to the nlea labeling was voluntary this study uses nutrition label information and supermarket scanner data pre and post nlea to examine the impact of moving from a voluntary to a mandatory labeling regime on consumer product choice the voluntary unraveling of information is shown to be an important market mechanism prior to the nlea all low fat salad dressings had a nutrition label while the majority of the higher fat dressings did not however there remained large variation in fat content among dressings that did not voluntarily label those with the highest fat levels experienced a significant decline in sales after they were required to disclose the results indicate that even in markets with credible low cost mechanisms to disclose mandatory labeling can have an impact on consumer behavior and health

hedging sudden stops and precautionary contractions abstract even well managed emerging market economies are exposed to significant external risk the bulk of which is financial at a moment s notice these economies may be required to reverse the capital inflows that have supported the preceding boom while capital flows crises are sudden nonlinear events sudden stops their likelihood fluctuates over time the question we address in the paper is how should a country react to these fluctuations depending on the hedging possibilities the country faces the options range from pure self insurance to hedging the sudden stop jump itself in between there is the more likely possibility to hedge the smoother fluctuations in the likelihood of sudden stops the main contribution of the paper is to provide an analytically and empirically tractable model that allows us to characterize and quantify optimal contingent liability management in a variety of scenarios we show with a concrete example that the gains from contingent liability management can easily exceed the equivalent of cutting a country s external liabilities by 10 of gdp

portfolio optimization with tracking error constraints this article explores the risk and return relationship of active portfolios subject to a constraint on tracking error volatility tev which can also be interpreted in terms of value at risk such a constrained portfolio is the typical setup for active managers who are given the task of beating a benchmark the problem with this setup is that the portfolio manager pays no attention to total portfolio risk which results in seriously inefficient portfolios unless some additional constraints are imposed the development in this article shows that tev constrained portfolios are described by an ellipse on the traditional mean variance plane this finding yields a number of new insights because of the flat shape of this ellipse adding a constraint on total portfolio volatility can substantially improve the performance of the active portfolio in general plan sponsors should concentrate on controlling total portfolio risk

us investment in global bonds as the fed pushes some emes pull we analyse reallocations within the international bond portfolios of us investors the most striking empirical observation is a steady increase in us investors allocations towards emerging market local currency bonds unabated by the global financial crisis and accelerating in the post crisis period part of the increase in emerging market economy eme allocations is associated with global push factors such as low us long term interest rates and unconventional monetary policy as well as subdued risk aversion expected volatility but also evident is investor differentiation among emes with the largest reallocations going to those emes with strong macroeconomic fundamentals such as less volatile inflation and more positive current account balances

home bias in equity portfolios inflation hedging and international capital market equilibrium we test whether the home bias in equity portfolios is caused by investors trying to hedge inflation risk the empirical evidence is consistent with this motive only if investors have very high levels of risk tolerance and equity returns are negatively correlated with domestic inflation we then develop a model of international portfolio choice and equity market equilibrium that integrates inflation risk and deadweight costs using this model we estimate the levels of costs required to generate the observed home bias in portfolios consistent with different levels of risk aversion for a level of risk aversion consistent with standard estimates of the domestic equity market risk premium these costs are about a few percent per annum greater than observable costs such as withholding taxes thus the home bias cannot be explained by either inflation hedging or direct observable costs of international investment unless investors have very low levels of risk aversion article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

advertising media strategies in the film industry the primary aim of this article is to estimate the multiple determinants of film advertising expenditures in four important media namely television press outdoor and radio in the uk first television advertising the leading film advertising medium is examined as part of a system of equations capturing the interdependences between advertising the number of screens on which films are initially shown and box office revenues then a reduced form model is put forward to reveal the determinants of film advertising in the four media while major distribution companies have different preferences for the use of the alternative advertising media results highlight the importance of quality signals such as critical reviews in determining advertising expenditures in the film industry moreover advertising expenditures can themselves be considered to offer potential cinema goers signals of film quality

the determinants of cross border equity flows abstract we explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross border equity flows between 14 countries 1989 1996 we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs in which both information and the transaction technology play a role distance proxies some information costs and other variables explicitly represent information transmission an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors and the efficiency of transactions the geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive once we control for the informational friction we broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings

home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics standard theory would predict that investors hold a well diversified portfolio of equities across the world but despite the process of financial globalization investors still hold a disproportionate share of local equities in their portfolio the equity home bias french and poterba 1991 we review the various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon in the context of recent developments in macroeconomic modelling that have allowed to incorporate sophisticated international portfolio choices in standard two country general equilibrium models we refer to this literature as open economy financial macroeconomics we focus on three broad classes of explanations i hedging motives in frictionless financial markets real exchange rate and non tradable income risk ii asset trade costs in international financial markets such as transaction costs differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets iii informational frictions and behavioural biases these recent developments raise the need for new portfolio facts beyond the equity home bias and we will present some new evidence on cross border asset holdings across different types of assets equities bonds and bank lending we also present some new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level these data should inform macroeconomic modelling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment

advertising as signal jamming abstract this paper considers a model of informative advertising that allows firms to jam the consumers signals on product quality before choosing prices at a second stage we find that the price competition at the second stage may overrule the basic insights from the signal jamming approach in other areas of application as a consequence a firm may advertise more intensely the higher is the difference of the expected product qualities moreover a firm s optimal advertising intensity can decrease with quality uncertainty

international reserves and global interest rates abstract in this paper we study the relationship between foreign currency international reserve holdings and global interest rates to guide empirical work we solve a simple small open economy model with money where the central bank manages international reserves to smooth inflation over time this model shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to the target level of reserves as a consequence interest rate hikes increase reserve transfers defined as the change in international reserves net of the interest earned on reserves using quarterly data for 75 countries between 2000 and 2013 we document a positive relationship between interest rate changes and reserve transfers as a share of gdp that is consistent with the model

information and capital flows the determinants of transactions in financial assets abstract we show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions our results support the hypothesis that informational asymmetries are responsible for the strong negative relationship between asset trade and distance this result is very important for theories of asset trade portfolio adjustments and home bias we strengthen it by investigating the roles of explicit informational variables as well as distance in explaining separately cross border trade in corporate equities corporate bonds and government bonds

the currency composition of international reserves demand for international reserves and global safe assets abstract this paper examines determinants of the international reserves ir currency composition before and after the global financial crisis gfc applying the annual data of 58 countries we confirm that countries that trade more with the us euro zone uk and japan and issue more debt denominated in the big four currencies us dollar euro pound and yen hoard more ir in these currencies we find scale effects in which countries tend to diversify from the big four currencies as they increase their ir gdp and that a growing shortage of global safe assets gsas induces countries to hold more big four currencies countries hold less big four currencies as ir after the 2008 gfc while they hold more of such currencies since the tapering of the fed s quantitative easing qe the 2008 gfc and qe tapering weakened and sometimes reversed the effect of several economic factors we also find that target2 balances matter for the currency composition of ir in the euro zone commodity exporting countries tend to diversify their ir from the big four currencies when their terms of trade improve and that the valuation effects induced by euro usd exchange rate changes diminish the significance of the gfc in explaining the currency composition of ir

does an unstable keynesian unemployment equilibrium in a non walrasian dynamic macroeconomic model imply chaos simonovits 1982 introduced a non walrasian dynamic macromodel which is based on the disequilibrium model with inventory dynamics due to honkapohja and ito 1980 this model describes transactions on two markets one market for labor and one market for goods and contains five parameters obviously there is an equilibrium which is the so called keynesian unemployment equilibrium point for suitable choices of the parameters this equilibrium point is locally stable and according to simonovits 1982 the keynesian unemployment equilibrium point is also globally stable i e the trajectories of all initial values converge to the equilibrium point for many parameter values the equilibrium point is unstable this is in fact the case when the product of the two eigenvalues at the equilibrium point is greater than 1 simonovits 1982 conjecture says if the keynesian unemployment equilibrium point is unstable then there is chaos first we recall some definitions of chaos we restrict our attention to systems whose trajectories are bounded a first definition is the following a system is chaotic if there exist infinitely many periodic points with different period and if there is an uncountable set of aperiodic points this kind of chaos is nowadays called li yorke chaos see li and yorke 1975 and diamond 1976 before turning to a second definition we need the notion of sensitive dependence on initial values a system may be said to have sensitive dependence on initial values if we can find with probability p where 0 p 1 a point x such that for every open neighborhood u of x there is a point y in u such that the trajectories of x and y will not be close

why is capital so immobile internationally possible explanations and implications for capital income taxation the evidence on international capital immobility is extensive including the lack of international portfolio diversification real interest differentials across countries and the high correlation between domestic savings and investment the authors develop a model with asymmetric information between countries that helps rationalize all the above observations and then examine the implications of this model for optimal domestic tax policy without asymmetric information past work showed that small open economies should not impose corporate income taxes with asymmetric information the optimal policy instead involves government subsidies to capital imports some omitted factors that argue against subsidizing capital imports are explored briefly copyright 1996 by american economic association

optimizing tracking error constrained portfolios active portfolios subject to tracking error te constraints are the typical setup for active managers tasked with outperforming a benchmark the risk and return relationship of such constrained po

successful movies a preliminary empirical analysis summary our findings lend further support to existing informal evidence that the characteristics of successful films have changed over the past forty years moreover they also suggest that it may well be possible to develop empirical models relating a film s attributes to the likelihood of consumer demand unfortunately such analysis cannot be undertaken without access to more detailed information on the performance and features of individual movies given the interesting characteristics of movies as ideal examples of differentiated products and of the institutional arrangements governing their production and distribution such increased data availability would make this an exceptionally attractive area for applied micro economic research

the market for motion pictures rank revenue and survival i introduction on any given day in every major city there may from 50 to 100 motion pictures playing on theater screens each is unique and its producer hopes it will catch that bit of magic that lights up the screen and the box office yet few achieve this feat and most lead brief unpredictable lives each film competes for screens and audiences during its brief life against a changing array of imperfect and equally unique substitutes how is one to understand this market is there any sense in which this market could be called competitive and how is it organized what institutions and contracts are adapted to this market environment and how do they shape the results we seek to answer some of these questions by examining the relationship between contractual practices and motion picture hazard and survival distributions our modeling is based on a large sample of motion picture revenues and theater bookings during their theatrical runs our detailed sample of motion picture lifetimes is a rare look at this fascinating industry whose unusual and complex features challenge economic theory in interesting ways as smith and smith 1986 506 observe given the interesting characteristics of movies as ideal examples of differentiated products and of the institutional arrangements governing their production and distribution such increased data availability would make this an exceptionally attractive area for applied micro economic research much of the empirical work on the motion picture industry has focused on the attributes of successful movies smith and smith 1986 examined the impact of oscar awards on the cumulative rentals of movies released from the 1950s through the 1970s in more recent work nelson et al undated have quantified the value of an oscar award on movie revenues using a large panel of data and an event study methodology in a somewhat broader empirical study prag and cassavant 1994 examined the determinants of movie revenues and marketing expenditures they found that marketing expenditures and quality are important determinants of a film s success and that production cost star actors and awards are positively related to marketing expenses in the present paper we attempt to account for the dynamic patterns in the data because each film is unique and plays in its own way its life as a commercial product in the theatrical market is hazardous indeed most motion pictures have short and unpredictable lives because audiences must discover what they like and films compete against an ever changing cast of competitors for these reasons it is productive to use evolutionary models of survival and death to model the data 1 we model competition among films in the theatrical market as an evolving rank tournament of survival 2 motion pictures live and die in the box office tournament as they are challenged during their run by a randomly evolving cast of new competitors the challengers come from films previously released and from newly released films the contending films are ranked by film goers and those with high rank survive and are carried over to the next week low ranked films fail and are replaced by new contenders these attributes of the motion picture market contribute to increasing returns and give the box office revenue distribution the distinctive convex shape of a tournament prize distribution 3 the leading products command a disproportionate share of the market and they have longer runs even then a film s rank in the tournament is ephemeral and its life unpredictable in fact of any 10 major theatrical films produced on the average 6 or 7 are unprofitable and 1 will break even vogel 1990 29 ii the motion picture exhibition market once a film is produced it is distributed to theaters who exhibit it for audiences the distributor chooses a release pattern the number and location of theaters in which the film is booked or licensed to play

research on the motion picture industry state of the art and new directions off the beaten track away from theatrical release the motion picture industry has been subject of extensive academic research over the last decades however most scholars focused on the u s theatrical motion picture market the number of research activities regarding even more profitable release windows such as home video or television has been substantially lower although international distribution is essential for a motion picture project to break even there has been little significant re search on most other markets this paper aims at summarizing the current state of research on the motion picture industry particularly from marketing and management perspective revealing research gaps and proposing recommendations for future research endeavors therefore a three pillar scheme is developed to systemize previous findings research on intraorganizational decision making contractual relationships between national stakeholders and international market competition are differentiated since these insights are mainly derived from u s theatrical exhibition they can hardly be applied to other markets and exhibition windows thus potential research areas are identified to expand knowledge of posttheatrical and international markets

international portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility in emerging asian markets abstract this paper investigates the effects of equity and bond portfolio inflows on exchange rate volatility using monthly bilateral data for the us vis a vis seven asian developing and emerging countries india indonesia pakistan the philippines south korea taiwan and thailand over the period 1993 01 2015 11 garch models and markov switching specifications with time varying transition probabilities are estimated in addition to a benchmark linear model the evidence suggests that high low exchange rate volatility is associated with equity bond inflows from the asian countries toward the us in all cases with the exception of the philippines therefore capital controls could be an effective tool to stabilise the foreign exchange market in countries where flows affect exchange rate volatility

can nontradables generate substantial home bias the past decade has witnessed an increase in the fraction of equity portfolios invested abroad as barriers to international asset trade have significantly declined what are the long run implications of this process in this paper we investigate to what extent nontradables consumption and leisure can affect the portfolio allocation decision in otherwise integrated capital markets we find that hedging against nontradables shocks can account for only a small portfolio bias toward domestic assets these results suggest that in the near future we can expect to observe sizable additional international diversification

a bayesian model to forecast new product performance in domestic and international markets this paper attempts to shed light on the following research questions when a firm introduces a new product or service how can it effectively use the different information sources available to generate reliable new product performance forecasts how can the firm account for varying information availability at different stages of the new product launch and generate forecasts at each stage we address these questions in the context of the sequential launches of motion pictures in international markets players in the motion picture industry require forecasts at different stages of the movie launch process to aid decision making and the information sets available to generate such forecasts vary at different stages despite the importance of such forecasts the industry struggles to understand and predict sales of new movies in domestic and overseas markets we develop a bayesian modeling framework that predicts first week viewership for new movies in both domestic and several international markets we focus on the first week because industry players involved in international markets studios distributors and exhibitors are most interested in these predictions we draw on existing literature on forecasting performance of new movies to formulate our model specifically we model the number of viewers of a movie in a given week using a poisson count data model the number of screens distribution strategy movie attributes such as genre and presence absence of stars are among the factors modeled to influence viewership we employ a hierarchical bayes formulation of the poisson model that allows the determinants of viewership to vary across countries we adopt the bayesian approach for two reasons first it provides a convenient framework to model varying assumptions of information availability specifically it allows us to make forecasts by combining different sources of information such as domestic and international market specific data second this methodology provides us with the entire distribution of the new movie s performance forecast such a predictive distribution is more informative than a point estimate and provides a measure of the uncertainty in the forecasts we propose a bayesian prediction procedure that provides viewership forecasts at different stages of the new movie release process the methodology provides forecasts under a number of information availability scenarios thus forecasts can be obtained with just information from a historical database containing data on previous new product launches in several international markets as more information becomes available the forecasting methodology allows us to combine historical information with data on the performance of the new product in the domestic market and thereby to make forecasts with less uncertainty and greater accuracy our results indicate that for all the countries in the data set the number of screens on which a movie is released is the most important influence on viewership furthermore we find that local distribution improves movie sales internationally in contrast to the domestic market we also find evidence of similar genre preferences in geographically disparate countries we find that the proposed model provides accurate forecasts at the movie country level further the model outperforms all the extant models in the marketing literature that could potentially be used for making these forecasts a comparison of root mean square and mean absolute errors for movies in a hold out sample shows that the model that combines information available from the different sources generates the lowest errors a bayesian predictive model selection criterion corroborates the superior performance of this model we demonstrate that the bayesian model can be combined with industry rules of thumb to generate cumulative box office forecasts in summary this research demonstrates a bayesian modeling framework that allows the use of different information sources to make new product forecasts in domestic and international markets our results underscore the theme that each movie is unique as is each country and viewership results from an interaction of the product and the market hence the motion picture industry should use both product specific and market specific information to make new movie performance forecasts

emerging local currency bond markets in this article the authors assess local currency bond markets in emerging market economies emes supported by policies and laws that helped improve macroeconomic stability and creditor rights local currency eme bond markets have grown substantially over the past decade and have provided usd based investors with attractive returns u s investors have responded by sharply increasing their holdings of eme local currency bonds especially in emes with investor friendly institutions and policies

central bank transparency and the volatility of exchange rates abstract we analyze the effect of monetary policy transparency on bilateral exchange rate volatility we test the theoretical predictions of a stylized model using panel data for 62 currencies from 1998 to 2010 we find strong evidence that an increase in the availability of information about monetary policy objectives decreases exchange rate volatility using interaction models we find that this effect is more pronounced for countries with a lower flexibility of goods prices a lower level of central bank conservatism and a higher interest rate sensitivity of money demand

robust portfolio selection using linear matrix inequalities abstract in this paper we consider the problem of robust optimal portfolio selection for tracking error when the expected returns of the risky and risk free assets as well as the covariance matrix of the risky assets are not exactly known we assume that these parameters belong to a convex polytope defined by some known elements which form the vertices of this polytope we consider two problems the first one is to find a portfolio of minimum worst case volatility of the tracking error with guaranteed fixed minimum target expected performance the second one is to find a portfolio of maximum worst case target expected performance with guaranteed fixed maximum volatility of the tracking error we show that these two problems are equivalent to solving linear matrix inequalities lmi optimization problems so that the powerful numerical packages nowadays available for this class of problems can be used a numerical example in the sao paulo stock exchange bovespa is presented

the influence of expert reviews on consumer demand for experience goods a case study of movie critics an inherent problem in measuring the influence of expert reviews on the demand for experience goods is that a correlation between good reviews and high demand may be spurious induced by an underlying correlation with unobservable quality signals using the timing of the reviews by two popular movie critics siskel and ebert relative to opening weekend box office revenue we apply a difference in differences approach to circumvent the problem of spurious correlation after purging the spurious correlation the measured influence effect is smaller though still detectable positive reviews have a particularly large influence on the demand for dramas and narrowly released movies

hedging with futures does anything beat the naive hedging strategy this paper investigates out of sample performance of the naive hedging strategy relative to that of the minimum variance hedging strategy in which the covariance parameters are estimated from 18 e

equity home bias a review essay this paper reviews the relatively more recent literature on equity home bias the empirical finding that people overinvest in domestic stocks relative to the optimal investment portfolio implied by the modern portfolio theory it reviews six broad classes of explanation of this puzzling phenomenon 1 hedging home risks 2 barriers to foreign investments 3 information asymmetries and 4 behavioral factors the consensus is that none of the explanations can account for the full extent of the bias by itself thus the home bias should be explained by a combination of rational and behavioral factors

the effect of information on product quality evidence from restaurant hygiene grade cards this study examines the effect of an increase in product quality information to consumers on e rms choices of product quality in 1998 los angeles county introduced hygiene quality grade cards to be displayed in restaurant windows we show that the grade cards cause i restaurant health inspection scores to increase ii consumer demand to become sensitive to changes in restaurants hygiene quality and iii the number of foodborne illness hospitalizations to decrease we also provide evidence that this improvement in health outcomes is not fully explained by consumers substituting from poor hygiene restaurants to good hygiene restaurants these results imply that the grade cards cause restaurants to make hygiene quality improvements

do domestic investors have an information advantage evidence from indonesia using transaction data from the jakarta stock exchange i find three pieces of evidence which indicate that domestic investors have an information advantage over foreign investors first foreign investors systematically buy at higher and sell at lower intra day prices than domestic investors second foreign investors tend to sell prior to large positive returns finally the permanent impact of foreign purchases is smaller than that of domestic purchases over time prices at which foreign investors trade have worsened while foreign selling prior to positive returns has disappeared

expert opinion and the demand for experience goods an experimental approach in the retail wine market abstract the effect of expert opinion on demand for experience goods is difficult to quantify as the relationship between purchases and reviews may be driven by product quality further it is unclear whether a review based demand effect is due to providing quality or existence information using a retail field experiment to overcome these obstacles we find a significant positive average consumer response to expert opinion labels for wine demand decreases for low scoring wines and increases for wines scoring average or higher results indicate that expert opinion labels transmit quality information as opposed to solely shelf visibility

public sector performance measurement and stakeholder support abstract over the past several decades there has been dramatically increased attention paid to measuring the performance of public sector and nonprofit organizations in the united states and elsewhere recent research has indicated that public sector and nonprofit organizations are responsive to performance measurement in both productive and unproductive ways however it is not yet known how stakeholders respond to this measurement this paper makes use of a unique panel survey dataset of the population of elementary and middle schools in the state of florida to directly investigate this question we exploit the fact that florida changed its school grading system in 2002 and study the degree to which private contributions to schools are responsive to the information contained in school grades we find evidence that school grades can have substantial effects on a school s ability to obtain private contributions we also observe that schools serving different clienteles are treated differently in response to changes in school grades

large scale bond purchases in a currency union with segmentation in the market for government debt abstract the literature on large scale purchases of government debt emphasises the importance of bond market segmentation along the maturity dimension for their transmission this study investigates how another form of segmentation that we observe the segmentation of government bond markets across countries can be exploited by the central bank of a currency union in which fiscal coordination is not attainable it is shown first that under general conditions government bond purchases which lower bond yields have first order effects on demand and hence inflation through a fiscal channel even in the absence of heterogeneity in investment opportunities the total effect on aggregate demand can be broken down into an income from debt issuance effect and a primary surplus effect as a result the central bank is able to use government bond purchases to control the terms of trade and achieve asymmetric degrees of stimulus across the members of the currency union without a transfer of resources if there is cross country segmentation in bond markets and home bias in government spending the paper characterises the welfare optimising mix of conventional interest rate policy and bond purchases in this scenario and gives an upper bound on the welfare benefits from using the additional tool

does conflict of interest lead to biased coverage evidence from movie reviews media outlets are increasingly owned by conglomerates inducing a conflict of interest a media outlet can bias its coverage to benefit companies in the same group we test for bias by examining movie reviews in media outlets owned by news corp such as the wall street journal and time warner such as time we find higher ratings for 20th century fox movies in news corp outlets compared to movies by other studios to disentangle bias from correlation of taste we introduce and validate a novel matching procedure using individual movie ratings from online platforms using this procedure we find no evidence of bias in news corp nor time warner outlets we reject even small effects such as bias of one extra star out of four every thirteen movies we test for differential bias when the return to bias is plausibly higher examine bias by media outlet and by journalist as well as editorial bias we also consider bias by omission whether media outlets are more likely to review highly rated movies by affiliated studios and conflict of interest within a movie aggregator in none of these dimensions do we find evidence of bias we relate to previous work and discuss three explanations for the lack of bias in our setting high values of media reputation organizational features in a conglomerate and low returns to bias

drivers of structural change in cross border banking since the global financial crisis abstract the paper analyzes the effects of changes to regulatory policy and to monetary policy on cross border bank lending since the global financial crisis cross border bank lending has decreased and the home bias in the credit portfolio of banks has risen sharply especially among banks in the euro area our results suggest that expansionary monetary policy in the source countries as measured by the change in reserves held at central banks has encouraged cross border lending both in euro area and non euro area countries regarding regulatory policy increases in financial supervisory power or independencve of the supervisory authorities have encouraged credit outflows from source countries the findings thus underline the importance of regulatory arbitrage as a driver of cross border bank flows since the global financial crisis however in the euro area arbitrage in capital stringency was linked to lower cross border lending since the crisis

dynamics of international integration of government securities markets abstract this paper investigates the dynamics of international government bond market integration in six of the g7 economies over two decades leading up to the global crisis it examines whether such integration had been significant the extent to which integration at the short and long end of the yield curve differed the nature of such integration and the extent of the decoupling of the long rates from short rates these issues are investigated using the rigorous smooth transition copula garch model framework the results show that integration at the long end of the yield curve had been increasing had become pronounced and was significantly greater than at the short end decoupling between the short and long end of the yield curve was notable with important implications for the efficacy of monetary policy in the period before the crisis

can information costs affect consumer choice nutritional labels in a supermarket experiment this paper investigates whether information costs under currently regulated nutritional labeling prevent consumers from making healthier food choices we implement five nutritional shelf label treatments in a market level experiment these labels reduce information costs by highlighting and summarizing information available on the nutritional facts panel following a difference in differences and synthetic control method approach we analyze weekly store level scanner data for microwave popcorn purchases from treatment and control stores our results suggest that consumer purchases are affected by information costs implemented low calorie and no trans fat labels increase sales in contrast implemented low fat labels decrease sales suggesting that consumer response is also influenced by consumers taste perceptions a combination of these claims into one label treatment increases information costs and does not affect sales significantly

on the theory of international currency portfolios abstract the paper develops a general equilibrium theory of the optimal currency composition of international bond portfolios like the partial equilibrium portfolio balance literature of the 1980s the theory emphasizes the critical roles of government debt and government balance sheet operations in the determination of portfolios prices and allocations consistent with empirical findings optimal foreign currency positions are found to be small with their size decreasing with exchange rate volatility while optimal domestic currency positions are large and increasing with domestic interest rates a large open market purchase of domestic currency bonds from private households lowers domestic interest rates

factors determining uk album success this article uses a recently compiled dataset on the uk album sales to determine which factors contribute to best selling album sales success we control for factors including length of time since release nationality of artist artist type and album type testing the increasing returns to information hypothesis information on general public online review scores for the albums in the dataset allows for a strong test of the accuracy of online reviews in predicting music sales as online reviews are a relatively recent phenomenon while the release of many of the albums predates the widespread use of internet

big banks and macroeconomic outcomes theory and cross country evidence of granularity does the mere presence of big banks affect macroeconomic outcomes we develop a theory of granularity for the banking sector by modeling heterogeneous banks charging variable markups using data for a large set of countries we show that the banking sector is indeed granular as the right tail of the bank size distribution follows a power law we demonstrate empirically that the presence of big banks measured by a high degree of market concentration is associated with a positive and significant relationship between bank level credit growth and aggregate growth of credit or gdp

exchange rates change asset denominated currency difference and stock price fluctuation this paper examines differences in the connectedness between exchange rates and stock prices for companies with different asset currencies on the hong kong stock market and it seeks to explain tho

consumer search with uncertain product quality this paper presents a unified model of consumer search when both prices and qualities are uncertain it is assumed that price can be observed prior to purchase but that quality can be observed only after purchase and experience this two stage decision problem is of particular interest since in practice there is usually some connection between quality and price of the many interesting implications of this dependence explored in this paper is the result that the usual reservation price rule may no longer be optimal indeed the optimal stopping set may take one of several alternative and more realistic forms

portfolio resampling review and critique a well understood fact of asset allocation is that the traditional portfolio optimization algorithm is too powerful for the quality of the inputs recently a new concept called resampled efficiency has been introduced into the asset management world to deal with estimation error the objective of this article is to describe this new technology put it into the context of established procedures and point to some peculiarities of the approach even though portfolio resampling is a thoughtful heuristic some features make it difficult to interpret by the inexperienced portfolio resampling review and critique a comment

a parsimonious model for forecasting gross box office revenues of motion pictures the primary objective of this paper is to develop a parsimonious model for forecasting the gross box office revenues of new motion pictures based on early box office data the paper also seeks to provide insights into the impact of distribution policies on the adoption of new products the model is intended to assist motion picture exhibitor chains retailers in managing their exhibition capacity and in negotiating exhibition license agreements with distributors studios by allowing them to project the box office potential of the movies they plan to or currently exhibit based on early box office results it is also of interest to practitioners in other software industries e g music books cd roms where the distribution intensity is highly variable over the product life cycle and is an important determinant of new product adoption patterns the model and its extensions are of interest to academic researchers interested in modeling distribution effects in new product adoption as well as forecasters looking for ways to leverage historical data on related products to forecast the sales of new products we draw upon a queuing theory framework to conceptualize stochastically the consumer s movie adoption process in two steps the time to decide to see the new movie and the time to act on the adoption decision the parameter for the time to decide process captures the intensity of information intensity flowing from various information sources while the parameter for the time to act process is related to the delay created by limited distribution intensity and other factors our conceptualization extends existing new product forecasting models which assume that consumers act instantaneously on the motivating information they receive about the new product the resulting model is parsimonious yet it accommodates a wide range of adoption patterns in addition the stochastic formulation allows us to quantify the uncertainty surrounding the expected adoption pattern in the empirical testing we focus on the most parsimonious version of the modeling framework boxmod i a model that assumes stationarity with respect to the two shape parameters that characterize the adoption process the model produces fairly accurate early forecasts using at most the first three weeks of data for calibration and the predictive performance of the model compares favorably with benchmark models we propose extensions of the basic model that account for more realistic non stationary distribution intensity patterns including a wide release pattern that relies on intensive distribution and promotion and a platform release pattern that involves a gradual buildup of distribution intensity finally we present an adaptive weighing scheme that combines initial parameter estimates obtained from a meta analysis procedure with estimates obtained from early data to produce forecasts of box office revenues for a new movie when little or no box office data are available an important finding from the empirical testing is that motion picture box office revenue patterns display remarkable empirical regularity we find that there are only three classes of adoption patterns and these can all be represented within the basic model by using a two parameter exponential or erlang 2 probability distribution or a three parameter generalized gamma distribution we also find that cumulative box office revenues can be predicted with reasonable accuracy often within 10 of the actual using as little as two or three data points however our attempts to predict revenue patterns without any sales data meet with limited success while the scale parameter can be estimated reasonably well from a historical database of parameter values we find that it is considerably more difficult to predict the shape parameters using historical data the parsimony we seek in developing the model comes at the cost of several limiting assumptions we assume that the time to decide subprocess and the time to act subprocess are independent which may not be the case if decisions on continued exhibition by retailers are endogenously related to box office revenues over the life cycle in the basic model formulation we also assume that the time to act process can be represented by an exponential distribution which may not always be the case while we provide some empirical evidence to support these assumptions further research could relax these and other assumptions to enrich the basic model although this would entail some loss in parsimony

uninsurable risk and financial market puzzles abstract we compare the empirical performances of three risk sharing arrangements involving idiosyncratic skill shocks a where individuals are unable to directly insure their consumption against individual specific shocks b where agents strike long term insurance contract with financial intermediaries involving a truth revelation constraint as in kocherlakota and pistaferri 2009 c full risk sharing based on the widely accepted assumption of cross sectional log normality of individual consumption levels we work out closed form expressions of the pricing kernels for a and b we put these three models to test four financial market anomalies namely the equity premium currency premium risk free rate and consumption real exchange rate puzzles simultaneously in an integrated framework we find that the pricing kernel associated with a outperforms the other two models in terms of the produced estimates of the agent s preference parameters and the model ability to predict the equity and currency premia the risk free rate and the log growth in the exchange rate however the predictive ability is still far from satisfactory for all three models under scrutiny

a new perspective on the new rule of the current account abstract in an influential series of contributions kraay and ventura 2000 2003 offer a new rule for the current account in response to a temporary income shock the change in the current account is equal to the change in saving times the ratio of net foreign assets to wealth we analyze the impact of a temporary income shock on the current account in the context of a two country dynamic general equilibrium model of portfolio choice and show that the new rule does not hold we also show that the cross section evidence reported by kraay and ventura in favor of the new rule is a feature implied by the steady state of the model that is conceptually distinct from the new rule we argue that the new rule could only hold in a model with one way capital flows only inflows or outflows but not both a feature that is strongly counterfactual

exchange rate uncertainty and international portfolio flows a multivariate garch in mean approach abstract this paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of net portfolio flows namely net equity and net bond flows as well as their dynamic linkages specifically a bivariate var garch bekk in mean model is estimated using bilateral monthly data for the us vis a vis australia canada the euro area japan sweden and the uk over the period 1988 01 2011 12 the results indicate that the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on net equity flows is negative in the euro area the uk and sweden and positive in australia the impact on net bond flows is also negative in all countries except canada where it is positive under the assumption of risk aversion the findings suggest that exchange rate uncertainty induces a home bias and causes investors to reduce their financial activities to maximise returns and minimise exposure to uncertainty this effect being stronger in the uk the euro area and sweden compared to canada australia and japan overall the results indicate that exchange rate or credit controls on these flows can be used as a policy tool in countries with strong uncertainty effects to pursue economic and financial stability

quality uncertainty search and advertising consumers in this paper we begin to remedy this omission by developing a formal model that shows how risk affects the decisions of riskaverse consumers regarding the amount of search and whether or not to buy advertised products we incorporate risk into the model by assuming that consumers are concerned not only with expected product quality but also with the amount of variation that exists across the qualities available the risk arises not because the quality is itself variable but rather because there is variation in quality across products and consumers cannot evaluate the quality of a particular brand before purchase we consider two sources of information about quality both of which are costly to consumers firms supply consumers with implicit quality signals through advertisements that convey only that a product is advertised but not direct information about the quality of the product and consumers supply themselves with direct quality information through search these methods affect both the expected value of quality received and its riskiness we analyze search and advertising simultaneously in order to model the consumers substitution of one information source for the other we then use the model to show how firms may use advertising as an implicit signal that advertised products are less risky than unadvertised products and to explain why information is primarily provided by firms in some markets whereas in other markets consumers acquire their information through search in addition to explicitly considering risk our model has several other attributes that distinguish it from the extant search literature in order to obtain a meaningful market equilibrium we construct a full partial equilibrium model in which the behavior of both buyers and sellers is examined and the distribution of qualities in the market is endogenously determined this approach is used

home bias in global bond and equity markets the role of real exchange rate volatility abstract this paper focuses on the role of real exchange rate volatility as a driver of portfolio home bias and in particular as an explanation for differences in home bias across financial assets we present a markowitz type portfolio selection model in which real exchange rate volatility induces a bias towards domestic financial assets as well as a stronger home bias for assets with low local currency return volatility we find empirical support in favour of this hypothesis for a broad set of industrialized and emerging market countries not only is real exchange rate volatility an important factor behind bilateral portfolio home bias but we find that a reduction of monthly real exchange rate volatility from its sample mean to zero reduces bond home bias by up to 60 percentage points while it reduces equity home bias by only 20 percentage points

cycles and chaos in a socialist economy abstract this paper deals with the dynamics of a continuous piecewise linear model of a socialist economy the model has hicksian type nonlinearities it is a linear model with ceilings and floors although the model is quite simple it produces a variety of different new phenomena in addition to stable cycles appearing in simonovits 1991b we demonstrate chaotic and quasi periodic behavior we investigate how the dynamics of the model depends on the control parameters and encounter border crossing bifurcations a rather new type of local bifurcation

an examination of resampled portfolio efficiency we examined the out of sample performance of using resampled portfolio efficiency an approach proposed in 1998 in international asset allocation strategies for the period january 1983 to may 2000 for most models we used to estimate expected returns using strategies based on resampled portfolio efficiency provided some benefits in terms of improved sharpe ratios and abnormal returns over using traditional mean variance strategies we found little evidence however that active mean variance strategies or resampled efficiency strategies would have generated significantly positive abnormal returns for the time period we considered

the home bias is here to stay over the last 15 years dramatically decreasing foreign investment costs have not reduced the home bias we show that the home bias induced by a given cost is proportional to the factor 1 where is the average correlation between markets this factor is very sensitive to the correlation especially when the correlation is high empirically correlations have been steadily increasing from 0 4 in the 90 s to about 0 9 today thus the decreasing extra costs are increasingly magnified explaining the persistence of the home bias and predicting its continuation

financial education investor protection and international portfolio diversification abstract this paper investigates the effect of financial education on foreign portfolio investment we show that higher investor financial education fosters international diversification and that its role is particularly pronounced where information problems and monitoring costs are likely to be more severe that is in countries where protection of minority shareholders rights is weaker we interpret this evidence as supportive of the conjecture that financial education lessens the informational constraints binding foreign investors

social learning and peer effects in consumption evidence from movie sales using box office data for all movies released between 1982 and 2000 i quantify how much the consumption decisions of individuals depend on information they receive from their peers when quality is ex ante uncertain in the presence of social learning we should see different box office sales dynamics depending on whether opening weekend demand is higher or lower than expected i use a unique feature of the movie industry to identify ex ante demand expectations the number of screens dedicated to a movie in its opening weekend reflects the sales expectations held by profit maximizing theatre owners several pieces of evidence are consistent with social learning first sales of movies with positive surprise and negative surprise in opening weekend demand diverge over time if a movie has better than expected appeal and therefore experiences larger than expected sales in week 1 consumers in week 2 update upward their expectations of quality further increasing week 2 sales second this divergence is small for movies for which consumers have strong priors and large for movies for which consumers have weak priors third the effect of a surprise is stronger for audiences with large social networks finally consumers do not respond to surprises in first week sales that are orthogonal to movie quality like weather shocks overall social learning appears to be an important determinant of sales in the movie industry accounting for 32 of sales for the typical movie with positive surprise this implies the existence of a large social multiplier such that the elasticity of aggregate demand to movie quality is larger than the elasticity of individual demand

consumers experts and online product evaluations evidence from the brewing industry abstract the growth of the internet has led to a dramatic increase in the number of consumer or user product ratings which are posted online by individuals who have consumed a good and are available to other individuals as they make decisions about which products to purchase these ratings have the potential to substantially improve the match between products and consumers however the extent to which they do so likely depends on whether the ratings reflect actual consumer experiences this paper evaluates one potential source of bias in consumer ratings mimicry of the reviews of experts using a rich dataset on consumer product ratings from the brewing industry and a regression discontinuity empirical framework i show that expert reviews influence consumer ratings consumer ratings fall in response to negative expert reviews and increase in response to positive expert reviews the results are most pronounced for strongly negative or strongly positive expert reviews this mimicry limits the extent to which information on product quality from actual consumer experiences diffuses to the population i suggest that nudges could be implemented to limit the extent to which mimicry affects ratings

the macroeconomic role of currency reserve accumulation in emerging markets the asian experience the impact of currency reserve accumulation is controversially discussed since reserve accumulation potentially destabilises the international financial system and causes crises due to higher systemic risk the main aim of this paper is to put the macroeconomic role of currency reserve accumulation for four asian economies under closer scrutiny the key question is whether accumulating currency reserves is beneficial from a long run perspective based on a vector error correction approach we start by analysing long run steady state relationships between currency reserves exchange rates against the us dollar real gdp and interest rates our findings show that cumulated currency reserve shocks significantly affect real gdp a likely explanation for our finding is that accumulation of reserves has supported growth through providing liquidity and supporting the development of the financial sector for the economies under observation

location matters an examination of trading profits the electronic trading system xetra of the german security exchange provides a unique data source on the equity trades of 756 professional traders located in 23 different cities and eight european countries we explore informational asymmetries across the trader population traders located outside germany in non german speaking cities show lower proprietary trading profit their underperformance is not only statistically significant it is also of economically significant magnitude and occurs for the 11 largest german blue chip stocks we also examine whether a trader location in frankfurt as the financial center or local proximity of the trader to the corporate headquarters of the traded stock or affiliation with a large financial institution results in superior trading performance the data provide no evidence for a financial center advantage or of increasing institutional scale economies in proprietary trading however we find evidence for an information advantage due to corporate headquarters proximity for high frequency intraday trading

conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations brokerage analysts frequently comment on and sometimes recommend companies that their firms have recently taken public we show that stocks that underwriter analysts recommend perform more poorly than buy recommendations by unaffiliated brokers prior to at the time of and subsequent to the recommendation date we conclude that the recommendations by underwriter analysts show significant evidence of bias we show also that the market does not recognize the full extent of this bias the results suggest a potential conflict of interest inherent in the different functions that investment bankers perform

variance vs downside risk is there really that much difference abstract the popularity of downside risk among investors is growing and mean return downside risk portfolio selection models seem to oppress the familiar mean variance approach the reason for the success of the former models is that they separate return fluctuations into downside risk and upside potential this is especially relevant for asymmetrical return distributions for which mean variance models punish the upside potential in the same fashion as the downside risk the paper focuses on the differences and similarities between using variance or a downside risk measure both from a theoretical and an empirical point of view we first discuss the theoretical properties of different downside risk measures and the corresponding mean downside risk models against common beliefs we show that from the large family of downside risk measures only a few possess better theoretical properties within a return risk framework than the variance on the empirical side we analyze the differences between some us asset allocation portfolios based on variances and downside risk measures among other things we find that the downside risk approach tends to produce on average slightly higher bond allocations than the mean variance approach furthermore we take a closer look at estimation risk viz the effect of sampling error in expected returns and risk measures on portfolio composition on the basis of simulation analyses we find that there are marked differences in the degree of estimation accuracy which calls for further research

international diversification during the financial crisis a blessing for equity investors abstract this paper empirically investigates international equity investors foreign portfolios before and during the financial crisis by estimating a gravity model for 22 source and 42 destination countries during 2001 2009 the results show a significant negative relationship between foreign equity holdings and stock market correlations during the financial crisis while there is no relationship before the crisis when distinguishing between active and passive rebalancing the results clearly indicate a significantly negative relationship between active rebalancing and correlations during the crisis these findings hold as well at the individual country level when allowing for source country specific coefficients an analysis from the perspective of each source country s representative investor who optimizes mean variance utility shows that active rebalancing provides sizeable utility gains during the crisis finally there is even a significantly negative relationship between future correlations and active rebalancing since 2007 suggesting that prior to the crisis investors already repositioned their country weights to markets with lower correlation during 2008 2009

do sales of foreign exchange reserves lead to currency appreciation we employ novel time stamped reserve sales data provided by the czech national bank cnb to carry out a time series analysis of the exchange rate implications of czech reserve sales aimed at mitigating valuation losses on euro denominated assets the sales were explicitly not intended to influence the value of the koruna relative to the euro the period under study includes a well defined regime change in the cnb s approach to reserves sales allowing us to address whether the manner in which the sales are carried out matters for their influence on the relative value of the domestic currency we find little evidence that reserve sales influence the exchange rate when sales are carried out on a discretionary and relatively infrequent basis however when the sales are carried out daily we find a statistically and economically significant appreciation of the domestic currency follows