settlement tax and non synchronous effects in the basis of u k stock index futures abstract the basis in stock index futures markets is analytically and empirically studied in this paper within a no arbitrage cost of carry framework explanatory power improved when the implications of the u k stock exchange settlement system were introduced into the modelling process and until recently with the maturity of the market evidence indicating the presence of non synchronicities between the cash and futures markets was found strong evidence for tax effects upon the basis was not found to be present in the data analysed statistically significant relationships between basis mispricing and volume and volatility were found

the speed of the invisible hand abstract very little attention has been devoted to incorporating dynamic elements into empirical models of market structure and performance consequently there has been little progress in settling the issue of whether the market structure profits relationship is more than just a temporary phenomenon in this study an estimation equation is developed which allows for incomplete adjustment of past profits from expected future profits where expected profits depends on present and expected future changes in market structure the model is estimated pooling panel data across industries the findings indicate that adjustment to abnormal profits is relatively quick market share adjustments are non instantaneous and that inclusion of industry specific effects is important the results suggest that previous studies are susceptible to specification bias from omitted variables

dynamic market models in industrial organization abstract this paper surveys empirical work done on dynamic models of market performance these fall into one of two categories structural models which model how market structure and performance change in response to entry and reduced form models which describe change regardless of how it is brought about a typical example of each type of model is chosen from the literature and simulations are used to draw out the implications of the estimated coefficients both models depict the competitive process in the us economy as being extremely slow

one security many markets determining the contributions to price discovery when homogeneous or closely linked securities trade in multiple markets it is often of interest to determine where price discovery the incorporation of new information occurs this article suggests an econometric approach based on an implicit unobservable efficient price common to all markets the information share associated with a particular market is defined as the proportional contribution of that market s innovations to the innovation in the common efficient price applied to quotes for the thirty dow stocks the technique suggests that the preponderance of the price discovery takes place at the new york stock exchange nyse a median 92 7 percent information share although most of the classic paradigms in market microstructure concern a security that trades in a single centralized market such situations are becoming increasingly rare in practice fragmentation the dispersal of trading in a security to multiple sites has emerged as a dominant institutional trend this process is of concern to financial economists and regulators because price information and price discovery the impounding of new information into the security price arguably the most important products of a security market have many attributes of public goods as the process of fragmentation accelerates it may be important to determine where the price information and price discovery are being produced 1 this paper suggests a practical econometric approach to this problem the technique is illustrated with an application to u s equity markets many stocks listed on the new york stock exchange nyse trade concurrently on the regional exchanges and the national association of securities dealers national market system nasd nms since a share of ibm stock is the same security whether purchased on the midwest or pacific exchange this is a particularly clear instance of multiple markets nevertheless the expres

another day another collar an evaluation of the effects of nyse rule 80a on trading costs and intermarket arbitrage in 1990 the new york stock exchange amended its rule 80a to restrict stock index arbitrage on days of large price movements the authors find that rule 80a significantly curtails or collars index arbitrage activity in spite of this curtailment in index arbitrage volume they find that rule 80a appears to have had little overall impact on trading costs and intermarket linkage although pricing discrepancies between the markets do appear to be eliminated less quickly the authors results are consistent with the hypothesis that information is conveyed from one market to the other by means other than formal arbitrage copyright 1998 by university of chicago press

exploiting ergodicity in forecasts of corporate profitability abstract theory suggests that competition tends to equalize profit rates through the process of capital reallocation and numerous studies have confirmed that profit rates are indeed persistent and mean reverting recent empirical evidence further shows that fluctuations in the profitability of surviving corporations are well approximated by a stationary laplace distribution here we show that a parsimonious diffusion process of corporate profitability that accounts for all three features of the data achieves better out of sample forecasting performance across different time horizons than previously suggested time series and cross sectional models as a consequence of replicating the empirical distribution of profit rates the model prescribes a particular strength or speed for the mean reversion of all returns which leads to superior forecasts of individual time series when we exploit information from the cross sectional collection of firms the new model should appeal to managers analysts investors and other groups of corporate stakeholders who are interested in accurate forecasts of profitability to the extent that mean reversion in profitability is the source of predictable variation in earnings our approach can also be used in forecasts of earnings and is thus useful for firm valuation

a statistical equilibrium model of competitive firms abstract we find that the empirical density of firm profit rates measured as returns on assets is markedly non gaussian and reasonably well described by an exponential power or subbotin distribution we start from a statistical equilibrium model that leads to a stationary subbotin density in the presence of complex interactions among competitive heterogeneous firms to investigate the dynamics of firm profitability we construct a diffusion process that has the subbotin distribution as its stationary probability density this leads to a phenomenologically inspired interpretation of variations in the shape parameter of the subbotin distribution which essentially measures the competitive pressure in and across industries our findings have profound implications both for the previous literature on the persistence of profits as well as for understanding competition as a dynamic process our main formal finding is that firms idiosyncratic efforts and the tendency for competition to equalize profit rates are two sides of the same coin and that a ratio of these two effects ultimately determines the dispersion of the equilibrium distribution

the intertemporal behavior of economic profits abstract the intertemporal behavior of economic profits is examined tests show that profit rates are not independent of their initial level a set of tests for the nature of the profit adjustment mechanism is proposed and a stock market based profit measure is employed despite intertemporal dependence we find evidence of profit rate adjustment patterns roughly consistent with neoclassical theory for negative profits in some but not all cases the probability of maintaining positive profits appears less than the probability of moving toward zero profits

portfolio serial correlation and nonsynchronous trading common stock portfolios of large heavily traded firms exhibit daily first order serial correlation in excess of what would be expected given the individual security coefficients further this correlation rises as the number of securities in the portfolio increases the direct implication of this finding is that nonsynchronous trading is not the only cause of correlation in daily market indices related implications are also discussed

default premiums in commodity markets theory and evidence we model the effect of nonperformance risk on forward and futures pricing and look for evidence of nonperformance risk in precious metals futures prices from the hunt brothers episode changes in default premiums are measured and related to the sequence of events in the metals markets during this period results suggest first that ex ante costs of nonperformance can be a significant priced factor in commodity markets and second that the arrival of new information is often associated with changes in these costs the evidence has implications for both theoretical and empirical research on commodity markets organized commodity markets offer traders an efficient medium in which to execute their hedging and speculative strategies in particular the markets have developed mechanisms that reduce the costs of nonperformance which would be substantial in the absence of an organized exchange devices such as margin requirements position limits daily marking to market price limit moves and the clearinghouse reduce the expected costs of distress and default in commodity markets while organized exchanges greatly reduce expected costs of nonperformance they do not eliminate such costs throughout the history of organized futures trading there have been many instances of markets collapsing or coming to the brink of collapse after a period of unusual trading activity the most prominent example in recent times is the near collapse of the new

stock volatility and the levels of the basis and open interest in futures contracts this article tests a theoretical model of the basis and open interest of stock index futures the model is based on the differences between stock and futures in terms of investors ability to customize stock portfolios and liquidity empirical evidence confirms the model s prediction that increased volatility decreases the basis and increases open interest copyright 1995 by american finance association

the competitive environment hypothesis revisited non linearity nonstationarity and profit persistence much empirical literature dealing with the competitive environment hypothesis tends to find nonstationary behaviour and very high persistence in time series of company profits profit time series is modelled using a simple threshold autoregressive model that allows for nonstationary behaviour over subsamples using a new dataset consisting of profits for more than 150 us companies over a time period of 50 years statistical evidence is presented that the high persistence observed in profits when using linear autoregressive models is often due to the misspecification of the data generating process

a transactions data test of stock index futures market efficiency and index arbitrage profitability this paper investigates the efficiency of the market for stock index futures and the profitability of index arbitrage for the chicago board of trade s major market index contracts the spot value of the index is computed with transactions prices for the component shares of the index obtained from the fitch database the tests account for transaction costs execution lags and the uptick rule for short sales of stocks results indicate that the size and frequency of boundary violations are substantially smaller than those reported by earlier studies and have declined sharply with time index arbitrage is a strategy whereby institutions brokerage houses or other large investors seek to profit from the spread between prices in the spot and futures markets for stock indices for example an investor might purchase predetermined baskets of stocks on the floor of the new york stock exchange and simultaneously sell a related index futures contract on the floor of the chicago board of trade hoping to profit from the price differences on the two exchanges computer programs constantly monitor stock and futures prices and automatically execute buy and sell orders when it appears that a profit is possible stock index futures can be priced by a simple arbitrage argument if the dividends paid by the underlying basket of shares and interest rates are nonstochastic markets are perfect and there are no taxes the pricing equation is

price discrimination in cournot competition abstract we examine the average equilibrium price when quantity setting oligopolies price discriminate it is known that for the price discrimination extension of cournot competition the average price is independent of the extent of price discrimination whenever the demand is linear we show that this result holds under a larger class of demand functions

price discrimination in free entry markets using a spatial model of monopolistic competition we investigate price discrimination in free entry zero profit markets we show that when brands are heterogeneous competition does not prevent discrimination the power to earn economic profits is not necessary for a firm to maintain discriminatory prices our model treats formally the fact that consumers difer not only in the utility they derive from a good but also in how strongly they prefer one brand over all others in markets where firms are very competitive sorting consumers on the strength on brand preference produces larger price differentials between groups than sorting on the basis of consumers reservation prices for the good when firms sort customers on the basis of strength of brand preference however we find that the output and welfare effects are generally less favorable than when sorting is more closely related to consumers reservation prices

a comparative analysis of intertemporal behavior of profits japan and the united states this paper first asks whether the working of market forces in japanese manufacturing industries is unique to them or similar to u s counterparts it is found that autoregressive profit equations for 376 japanese firms over 1964 82 are on average similar to those for 413 u s firms over 1964 80 the paper next asks whether the interindustry pattern of profit adjustments in japan is related to industry traits in a manner analogous to the united states in this case specific national differences between the two countries in the effects of imports industry growth and capital intensity on the profit adjustment process are found copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

friction in the trading process and the estimation of systematic risk abstract this paper considers how estimates of the market model beta parameter can be biased by friction in the trading process information decision and transaction costs that a leads to a distinction between observed and true returns b causes observed returns to be generated asynchronously for a set of interdependent securities and c thereby introduces serial cross correlation into security returns several propositions are derived from which consistent estimators of beta are obtained and the effect of differencing interval length on beta estimates is specified the formulation is contrasted with the related analyses of scholes williams 1977 and dimson 1979

the dynamics of stock index and stock index futures returns in rational efficiently functioning markets the returns on stock index and stock index futures contracts should be perfectly contemporaneously correlated this study investigates the time series properties of 5 minute intraday returns of stock index and stock index futures contracts and finds that sp however the effect is not completely unidirectional with lagged stock index returns having a mild positive predictive impact on futures returns

the persistence of profit a new empirical interpretation abstract inferences are drawn about the true coefficients which correspond to sample estimates of a persistence of profit model fitted over a large number of firms this is done by generating simulated sampling distributions for the estimators over various distributional assumptions profits seem to be stationary for all firms with an average short run persistence coefficient of 0 59 higher than most previous estimates long run profit rates differ between firms although by less than is suggested by direct observation of variations in mean profit rates calculated over time short run persistence appears to be inversely related to unsystematic variation in profit

one market stocks futures and options during october 1987 we provide new evidence regarding the degree of integration among markets for stocks futures and options prior to and during the october 1987 market crash where previous analyses have resulted in recommendations for the implementation of circuit breakers the coordination of margin requirements across markets and changes in regulatory jurisdiction our analysis indicates that delinkage between markets during the crash was primarily caused by an antiquated mechanism for processing stock market orders the results suggest that market integration may be better served by efficient order execution than by further restricting markets

the persistence of profits a european comparison this paper is concerned with modeling the movements in profits of firms over time at the heart of the emp irical model is a latent variables problem which arises from the fact that entry and imitation do not actually have to occur to have an ef fect on profits a solution to this problem is explored and then emp irical results are presented comparing a sample of firms from the uni ted kingdom france and west germany copyright 1988 by royal economic society

oligopoly price discrimination with many prices abstract the model of price discrimination in cournot nash oligopoly is extended to the case of many prices analogous to 1st degree monopoly price discrimination in the limit all viable customers are served but the price charged the keenest customers is well below the highest price charged by a monopoly

arbitrage nontrading and stale prices october 1987 this article explains a puzzle created by the standard and poor s 500 cash and futures prices during the crash of october 1987 the cash index appears to be a moving average of the futures but nontrading in constituent stocks explains only the initial period of delayed openings however execution of stale limit buy orders given the high volume and nyse market mechanisms at the time resulted in extraordinary levels of stock prices that were not caused by nontrading the model is supported in aggregate s p data and transactions data for individual stocks copyright 1992 by university of chicago press

successful in the long run a meta regression analysis of persistent firm profits we study the profit persistence literature by applying meta regression analysis mra to a set of 36 empirical papers which analyze the persistence of abnormal firm profits over time the analyzed literature provides evidence for a mediocre degree of persistence in abnormal profits an initial analysis of the distribution of reported profit persistence estimates reveals some degree of excess variation this points toward publication bias that favors significant results independent of their algebraic sign the mra however reveals that publication bias is particularly favoring results that indicate profit persistence and thus contradict the neoclassical model of perfect competition moreover the mra enables to control for heterogeneity driven by the study design we find that the analyzed country developing vs developed the applied econometric approach as well as the analyzed period of time are significant drivers of heterogeneity in reported persistence estimates

the temporal price relationship between s p 500 futures and the s p 500 index this paper empirically examines the intraday price relationship between s p 500 futures and the s p 500 index using minute to minute data three stage least squares regression is used to estimate lead and lag relationships with estimates for expiration days of the s p 500 futures compared with estimates for days prior to expiration the results suggest that futures price movements consistently lead index movements by twenty to forty five minutes while movements in the index rarely affect futures beyond one minute

output price markups and producer size abstract this paper examines how output prices and markups vary across the size distribution of producers it uses unique plant level data on physical output revenue and input expenditures for six homogeneous u s manufactured products the results reveal that for five of the six products output prices decline systematically with increases in plant size in the most extreme case corrugated boxes the smallest producers have prices that average 20 percent above the mean price while the largest producers average 10 percent below the mean at the other extreme the price dispersion for gasoline is small and unrelated to plant size plant specific markups of price over marginal cost vary across the size distribution of producers for five of the products in three cases they decline in two cases they increase and one product gasoline shows no systematic variation

a further analysis of the lead lag relationship between the cash market and stock index futures market the intraday lead lag relation between returns of the major market cash index and returns of the major market index futures and s p 500 futures is investigated empirical results show strong evidence that the futures leads the cash index and weak evidence that the cash index leads the futures the asymmetric lead lag relation holds between the futures and all component stocks including those that trade in almost every five minute interval evidence indicates that when more stocks move together market wide information the futures leads the cash index to a greater degree this suggests that the futures market is the main source of market wide information article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the convergence of profits in the long run inter firm and inter industry comparisons this paper considers the extent to which the short run dynamic behavior and long run equilibrium levels of profitability differ among firms within the same industry movements in profits are modeled in terms of firm specific deviations from average industry profits and industry specific deviations from economy wide average returns applied to a sample of 217 large u k firms 1951 77 the results suggest that considerable heterogeneities exist within most industries that is most firms profitability experience differs considerably from those of their closest rivals copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

program trading and intraday volatility program trading and intraday changes in the s p 500 index are correlated future prices and to a lesser extent cash prices lead program trades index arbitrage trades are followed by an immediate change in the cash index which ultimately reverses slightly no reversal follows nonarbitrage trades the cumulative index changes associated with buy and sell trades and with arbitrage and nonarbitrage trades all are similar price decompositions suggest that the results are not due to microstructure effects program trades in this 1989 1990 sample do not seem to have created major short term liquidity problems the results are stable within the sample many practitioners regulators and public commentators have expressed concerns about potential destabilizing effects of program trading they argue that program trades especially index arbitrage programs increase intraday volatility and decrease

competition and price dispersion in the airline markets we use two ticket level data sets on one way domestic flights for the us airlines to examine the potentially nonlinear relationship between price dispersion and three forms of competition inter firm inter flight and frequency competitions the linear relationship is rejected at any conventional significance levels in particular there is an s shaped relationship between market concentration and price dispersion this can be a reason for the mixed results in the literature roughly speaking the inter flight and frequency competitions have opposite effects on price dispersion finally in general the size of aircraft has a positive effect on price however for very large aircraft the relationship becomes negative

firm specific information and the correlation between individual stocks and bonds abstract this paper examines the correlation between the returns on individual stocks and the yield changes of individual bonds issued by the same firm and finds that they are negatively and contemporaneously correlated this suggests that individual stocks and bonds are driven by firm specific information that is predominantly related to the mean rather than the variance of the firm s underlying assets furthermore i find that lagged stock returns have explanatory power for current bond yield changes while current stock returns are unrelated to lagged bond yield changes this shows that stocks lead bonds in reflecting firm specific information

index arbitrage with heterogeneous investors a smooth transition error correction analysis abstract the traditional index arbitrage model assumes a constant threshold mispricing between the futures and cash prices for all investors allowing for heterogeneity in investors transaction costs objectives and capital constraints we model the intraday mispricing of djia futures as a smooth transition autoregressive star process with the speed of adjustment toward equilibrium varying directly with the mispricing we show that the observed mean reversion in mispricing changes is induced by heterogeneous arbitrageurs instead of a statistical illusion infrequent trading of index portfolio stocks we further use a star error correction model to describe the nonlinear dynamics between the djia futures and index this model describes not only which market is more informationally efficient than the other but also the legging process the nonsimultaneous establishing of cash and futures positions

in pursuit of monopoly power recent quantitative work in industrial economics this paper reviews empirical work in industrial organization devoted to the question of inferring the existence of monopoly power from data on observed market outcomes like profits and prices the discussion covers inter industry work long conventional in the area newer developments in intra industry analysis and case studies and concludes with some remarks on a small but growing body of work assessing market dynamics the wide range of studies reviewed all generally reveal that market power exists in many industries

crises in developed and emerging stock markets stock market crises in the developed markets differ in important ways from the crises in emerging stock markets our study of nine crises in the 1970 97 period indicates that developed market crises have become less severe over time in terms of both the extent of price decline and duration but those in emerging stock markets have not in both markets prices fall for at least three years subsequent to recovery from a crisis and the crisis in one market is likely to be followed by crises in most other markets in the region nevertheless even in times of crises international stocks continue to provide diversification benefits for u s investors with long investment horizons

information and index arbitrage a random cash futures basis is derived in a dynamic multimarket learning game with sequential information shocks and strategic arbitrageurs who trade to exploit gaps in the basis statistical properties of the authors theoretical basis are derived both with and without index arbitrage the authors find that basis volatility a measure of intermarket mispricing may initially increase even as individual prices become more precise and that arbitrage reduces basis volatility the model is also used to analyze regulatory issues such as the possible impact of circuit breakers on the quality of the trading process copyright 1994 by university of chicago press

measuring true stock index value in the presence of infrequent trading based on the beveridge nelson 1981 decomposition of an arima process i present a measure of true stock index value that is not directly observable due to infrequent trading of stocks the technique is illustrated with daily observations of the russell 2000 index this new measure might well prove useful in studies of lead lag relationships between index derivatives and spot market and futures basis measurements

box spread arbitrage profits following the 1987 market crash real or illusory we examine market efficiency before and after the 1987 market crash using the box spread strategy implemented with european style s p 500 index spx options before the crash apparent arbitrage opportunities were rare and simulated trades were unprofitable assum ing a one minute execution delay after the crash apparent arbitrage opportunities were frequent and simulated trades were profitable even assuming a five minute execution delay our analysis makes the routine assumption that quotes are good until updated to construct a time series of prevailing quotes sampled at 30 second intervals if this assumption is valid then arbitrage profits were actually available if this assumption is invalid then such profits could have been illusory either scenario however implies that spx market effi ciency decreased following the crash prevailing price quotes repeatedly failed to satisfy the fundamental parity relation underlying the box spread

corporate profitability and the dynamics of competition in emerging markets a time series analysis the paper presents time series analyses of corporate profitability in seven leading developing countries dcs using the common methodology of the persistence of profitability pp studies and systematically compares the results with those for advanced countries acs surprisingly both short and long term persistence of profitability for dcs are found to be lower than those for acs the paper concentrates on economic explanations for these findings it also reports the results on the persistence of the two components of profitability output capital ratios and profit margins these too raise important general issues of economic interpretation for pp studies which are outlined

third degree price discrimination in oligopoly all out competition and strategic commitment price discrimination by imperfectly competitive firms may intensify competition leading to lower prices for all consumers the tradeoff of consumer groups welfare that is characteristic of monopolistic discrimination need not arise this escalation of competition may make firms worse off and as a result firms may wish to avoid the discriminatory outcome under conditions similar to those in which unambiguous price and welfare effects may arise unilateral commitments not to price discriminate including the adoption of everyday low pricing or no haggle policies may raise firm profits by softening price competition

nonsynchronous security trading and market index autocorrelation the theoretical portfolio autocorrelation due solely to nonsynchronous trading is estimated from a derived model this estimated level is found to be substantially less than that observed empirically the theoretical and empirical relationship between portfolio size and autocorrelation also is investigated the results of this study suggest that other price adjustment delay factors in addition to nonsynchronous trading cause the high autocorrelations present in daily returns on stock index portfolios

intraday relationships among index arbitrage spot and futures price volatility and spot market volume a transactions data test abstract this paper examines intraday temporal relationships among arbitrage spreads cash and futures price volatility and cash trading volume using transactions data for the major market index futures contracts and the component stocks of the index results indicate that changes in the spread have a significant impact on cash and futures price volatility as well as on cash trading volume the impact of the spread however is attenuated by the short sale restriction in the cash market contrary to popular beliefs a more volatile market leads to subsequent decreases in the spread probably because of increases in the supply of arbitrage services or faster price adjustments

intraday volatility in the stock index and stock index futures markets we examine the intraday relationship between returns and returns volatility in the stock index and stock index futures markets our results indicate a strong intermarket dependence in the volatility of the cash and futures returns price innovations that originate in either the stock or futures markets can predict the future volatility in the other market we show that this relationship persists even during periods in which the dependence in the returns themselves appears to weaken the findings are robust to controlling for potential market frictions such as asynchronous trading in the stock index our results have implications for understanding the pattern of information flows between the two markets article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

stock index futures does the tail wag the dog the increase in program trading based on a comparatively narrow blue chip stock market barometer the major market index mmi is said to be fueling volatile price swings in the stock market a case of the tail wagging the dog the mmi is a price weighted index of 20 very actively traded stocks 16 of which are included in the dow jones 30 industrials because of its relatively small size the mmi is expected to be more easily arbitragible than other stock index futures contracts basically program trading involves taking a position long or short in a portfolio of stocks comprising the index and simultaneously taking an opposite position in the index futures contracts the objective of the program trade is to create a risk free position that earns a return in excess of the currently available risk free return program trades may move both the futures and the spot market the chain of causality may work as follows 1 investors believe the stock market will rise and they purchase futures contracts in expectation of higher equity values the purchase of the contracts is preferable to the purchase of the underlying stocks because it entails no initial investment and lower transaction costs 2 the rise in futures prices causes an imbalance between the prices of the futures and the underlying index as this premium between futures and index increases it may become profitable to execute a program trade 3 the simultaneous sale of futures and purchase of the underlying index will cause the premium between the futures and index to shrink changes in factors such as interest rates can also affect the equilibrium relation between the index price and the futures price thereby changing the premium or discount between the two markets program traders can take advantage of any change in the spread between the markets it does not matter what causes the change in spreads whether internal factors such as changes in investor expectations or external factors such as interest rate changes all program trading does is to bring cash and futures prices together the program trade may be an essential mechanism that ensures that futures prices and underlying equity prices are efficiently determined and that the hedging effectiveness of the futures contracts is reliable to date most of the literature on the impact of futures trading on the cash market has focused on changes in spot price volatility because of the initiation or cessation of futures trading a common conclusion of these studies is that the futures market has a smoothing effect on the cash market stabilizing the spot price the recent uproar engendered by the triple witching hour and the so called crises at expiration brings into question the smoothing influence that futures have on the underlying index 2 if the market is efficient prices adjust instantaneously to reflect all relevant information and knowledge of such information cannot lead to excess risk adjusted returns the central concept in the efficient market hypothesis is the fair game model 3 a sequence of past returns over time is a fair game if today s price reflects the then available information making it impossible to earn excess risk adjusted returns by trading on that information if the information set today contains all the information known and used by the market participants in the spot market in determining the spot price one of the components of the information set is the previous change in the price of futures contracts 4 does the tail wag the dog the financial press and the sec have answered this question in the affirmative 5 this note investigates the impact of the futures market on the spot market by evaluating the relation between index futures price changes and subsequent spot index price changes in addition we evaluate the degree to which the expiration of the futures contract affects the underlying index

index futures arbitrage and the behavior of stock index futures prices this article examines intraday transaction datafor s p 500 stock indexfutures prices and the intraday quotes for the underlying index the data indicate that thefutures price changes are uncorrelated and that the variability of these price changes exceeds the variability ofprice changes in the s p 500 index this excess variability of the futures over the index remains even after controlling for the nonsynchronous prices in the index quotes which induces autocorrelation in the index changes we advance and examine empirically two hypotheses regarding the difference between the futures price and its theoretical value that this mispricing increases on average with maturity and that it is path dependent evidence supporting these hypotheses is presented

the growth profit nexus in this paper we investigate the relative importance of firm and market effects on the profitability of a sample of independent unquoted u k firms over the period 1991 1993 specifically we attempt to isolate the effects of internal governance given that the typical firm is closely held in terms of its shareholdings and has a high degree of owner control our findings suggest that there is no short run growth profit trade off of the type outlined by marris in fact growth and profits move in parallel further there is a significant degree of profits persistence

price discrimination in stackelberg competition we examine the effects of price discrimination in the stackelberg competition model for the linear demand case we show that the leader does not use any price discrimination at all rather the follower does all price discrimination the leader directs all of its first mover preemptive advantage to attract the highest value consumers who pay a uniformly high price we observe that profits and total welfare are larger and consumer surplus is smaller than those of the standard stackelberg competition model

excessive wages and the return on capital received wisdom suggests that excessive wages defined as the part of real wages that do not follow labour productivity developments are adversely associated with the return on capital this paper argues that excessive wages and profits are better thought of as responses to changes in the economic political and institutional environment and there is no a priori reason for a negative relationship between them we thus investigate whether there is a causal effect of excessive wages on capital return using aggregate panel data for 19 oecd countries for the period 1970 2000 we account for the endogeneity of excessive wages by exploiting variations in institutional and labour market characteristics our main finding is that excessive wages do not affect the return on capital this result remains robust to alternative empirical specifications and to alternative definitions of profitability and excessive wages and questions the standard advice by international economic organizations on wage moderation copyright the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

modelling profit series nonstationarity and long memory the dynamic structure of profit rates for 156 us manufacturing companies is analysed by means of fractional integration techniques as an alternative to the commonly used arima models with respect to the persistence of profits thereby the pseudo spectral density aproach of velasco and robinson together with model selection criteria is applied the results show despite the short lengths of the series and tests for the integer degrees of integration d 0 1 that 35 5 of the series may be well approximated by long range dependent processes and 54 are nonstationary this is a confirmation of the strong challenge to the competitive environment hypothesis obtained by previous studies

dominant firms and their alleged decline abstract by way of a survey of recent literature on the theory of strategic competition this paper focuses on the question of whether dominant firms decline the traditional argument suggesting decline is found to be based on a rather unsatisfactory modelling of dominance and more acceptable conceptualizations suggest that such privileged positions will persist

on the application of accounting rates of return the article presents a study on the application of some accounting concepts and functions in economic analysis according to the author his analysis will provide a basis on which accountants can discriminate between the alternative rules and standards available to them by reference to their relevance to the information required by investors or regulators the author states that current cost accounts should be used with care the appropriate method for economic interpretation of rates of return on capital deals with the application of the balance sheet conventions of current cost accounting

order imbalances and stock price movements on october 19 and 20 1987 on october 19 1987 nyse stocks in the s p index declined seven percentage points more than nyse stocks not in this index in the first hour of trading on october 20 the s p stocks virtually recovered to the level of the non s p stocks there is a strong relation between order imbalances and stock price movements both in analyses of time series and cross sections thus in addition to the breakdown in the linkage between future prices and the spot index on these two days there were also breakdowns in the linkage among nyse stocks

the dynamics of corporate profits abstract industrial economics research has devoted little attention to long run considerations of market structure and performance relationships this paper provides several insights into the dynamics of corporate performance a dynamic duopoly model is provided in which new firm entry causes a convergence of profits toward a new equilibrium this process has been examined empirically and both the speed of profit adjustment and the level to which this process converged in the long run has been studied for germany it has been found that entry and mobility of firms led to a relatively quick profit convergence which is an indicator for the functioning of competition however the convergence process was not complete since it did not result in an equalization of profit rates across firms

mean reversion of standard poor s 500 index basis changes arbitrage induced or statistical illusion mean reversion in stock index basis changes has been presumed to be driven by the trading activity of stock index arbitragers we propose here instead that the observed negative autocorrelation in basis changes is mainly a statistical illusion arising because many stocks in the index portfolio trade infrequently even without formal arbitrage reported basis changes would appear negatively autocorrelated as lagging stocks eventually trade and get updated the implications of this study go beyond index arbitrage however our analysis suggests that spurious elements may creep in whenever the price change or return series of two securities or portfolios of securities are differenced mean reversion in stock index basis changes has been amply documented mackinlay and ramaswamy 1988 find significant negative first order autocorrelation in normalized intraday basis changes of the s p 500 index futures traded on the chicago mercantile exchange cme yadav and pope 1990 find similar behavior using financial times stock exchange ftse 100 index futures data from the london international financial futures exchange liffe as does lim 1990 using nikkei 225 index futures from the singapore international monetary exchange simex the trading activity of stock index arbitragers has been presumed to be driving this elastic realignment of stock index and index futures prices when the basis widens beyond its theoretical level arbitragers simultaneously sell index futures and buy the index portfolio pulling the difference between the futures and index

price discrimination in cournot nash oligopoly abstract the standard cournot nash oligopoly model is extended to encompass price discrimination where firms charge more than one price for the same product based on willingness to pay in the linear symmetric case the average price is not dependent on the extent of price discrimination

the persistence of profits in banking an international comparison this article examines the dynamics of bank profitability in the usa germany great britain france italy and switzerland over the period 1993 2014 we find long run bank profit persistence in all six countries in the period before the financial crisis in 2008 banks with large capital ratios are persistently more profitable and there is little evidence of a link between bank size and the persistence of bank profits commercial saving banks are persistently more less profitable in four of the six countries the effects of the financial crisis in 2008 differed dramatically across countries as well as across ownership types while us banks experienced dramatic declines in the immediate aftermath of the crisis they recovered much faster than their european counterparts and essentially retain their long run profit potential by the year 2014

price discrimination in asymmetric cournot oligopoly abstract in this article we examine the effects of third degree price discrimination in asymmetric cournot oligopolies we show that the average price is not affected by the extent of price discrimination we find that the asymmetry between firms is reflected only by the output produced for the lowest valuation consumers and firms produce equal quantities to the other consumer groups

direct tests of index arbitrage models previous tests of stock index arbitrage models have rejected the no arbitrage constraint imposed by these models this paper provides a detailed analysis of actual s p 500 arbitrage trades and directly relates these trades to the predictions of index arbitrage models an analysis of arbitrage trades suggests that i short sale rules are unlikely to affect the cashfutures mispricing ii the opportunity cost of arbitrage funds exceeds the treasury bill rate and iii the average price discrepancy captured by arbitrage trades is small tests of the models provide some support for a version ofthe arbitrage model that incorporates an early liquidation option the ability of these models to explain arbitrage trades however is surprisingly low

price and volatility co jumps abstract the nature of the dependence between discontinuities in prices and contemporaneous discontinuities in volatility co jumps has been reported by many as being elusive in terms of sign magnitude and statistical significance using a novel identification strategy in continuous time relying on trade level information for spot variance estimation as well as infinitesimal cross moments we document that a sizeable proportion of discontinuous changes in prices are associated with strongly anti correlated contemporaneous discontinuous changes in volatility assuming a possibly nonmonotonic pricing kernel we illustrate the equilibrium implications of price and volatility co jumps for return and variance risk premia

a tale of three schools insights on autocorrelations of short horizon stock returns this article reexamines the autocorrelation patterns of short horizon stock returns we document empirical results which imply that these autocorrelations have been overstated in the existing literature based on several new insights we provide support for a market efficiency based explanation of the evidence our analysis suggests that institutional factors are the most likely source of the autocorrelation patterns

persistence of profits in the long run a critical extension of some recent findings abstract recent discussions of the persistence of profits question have focussed on two econometric firm models which have been validated for several countries the paper gives a brief summary of the model concepts and of the most important findings for the countries in question both models are then applied to a data bank of german enterprises providing new results for one of them which has not been realized in germany yet finally the estimation results of the two models are examined by variance analysis this reveals that the convergence process is stronger than it has ever been perceived

the october 1987 s p 500 stock futures basis five minute changes in the s p 500 index and futures contract are examined over a ten day period surrounding the october 1987 stock market crash since nonsynchronous trading problems are severe in these data new index estimators are derived and used the estimators use the complete transaction history of all 500 stocks nonsynchronous trading explains part of the large absolute futures cash basis observed during the crash the remainder may be due to disintegration of the two markets even after adjustment for nonsynchronous trading the index displays more autocorrelation than does the futures and the futures leads the index

margins concentration unions and the business cycle theory and evidence for britain abstract a number of recent studies have examined the cyclical relationship between price cost margins concentration and unions u s data has concluded that unions reduce margins margins vary over the cycle and concentration unionisation and the cycle interact in their effect on margins however there is almost no theory to account for these results we propose a simple theory that assumes only that there is overhead labour present at the firm this produces theoretical predictions that can explain these results and discriminate between existing theories we present results of our own using u k panel data and show similar findings to the u s

sustained competitive advantage temporal dynamics and the incidence and persistence of superior economic performance competitive advantage is a key concept in strategic management research for a number of reasons not the least of which is that an avowed consequence of its attainment is held to be superior economic performance however few prior empirical studies have directly and systematically documented the incidence or prevalence of persistent superior economic performance the research reported here is based on empirical studies of a large number of industry samples for which longitudinal data were stratified by levels of performance using a new methodology and then analyzed in terms of their dynamics this new stratification technique was used in lieu of autoregressive methods employed in prior studies of performance persistence to allow for a true outlier analysis because persistent superior economic performance both has been argued theoretically and found empirically to be rare detailed results from a sample of 6 772 firms in 40 industries over 25 years are presented to illustrate the findings that 1 while some firms do exhibit superior economic performance 2 only a very small minority do so and 3 the phenomenon very rarely persists for long time frames these results while not providing direct support for a particular extant strategic management or economic theory concerning firm performance are most consonant with the resource based view of the firm and have implications for significant aspects of other received strategic management and economic theories

is there persistence in innovative activities abstract this paper examines firm innovative persistence using patent applications of 577 uk manufacturing firms non parametric techniques show the empirical distributions of patents are neither geometric nor poisson there exists a threshold effect represented by the first patent the probability to go from zero to one patent is uniformly much lower than from n to n 1 patents with n 1 transition probability matrices show little persistence in general but strong persistence among great innovators that account for a large proportion of patents requested innovative activities at least which are captured by patents are persistent there is heterogeneity across industrial and size classification

intraday relationships between volatility in s p 500 futures prices and volatility in the s p 500 index abstract this paper examines the intraday relationships between the volatility of s p 500 futures prices and the volatility of the s p 500 index we calculate variance measures for minute to minute price changes on a daily basis and across 30 minute intervals the empirical results indicate that i futures volatility is greater than index volatility ii volatility increased for both futures prices and the index in absolute terms from 1984 through 1986 iii both futures and index volatility increased directly with futures trading volume and iv index volatility was systematically greater during the first 30 minutes of trading each day than at other times granger tests however reveal no systematic pattern of futures volatility leading index volatility or index volatility leading futures volatility

forecasting profitability and earnings a study of the uk market 1982 2000 an approach recently developed by fama and french 2000 is applied to the study of whether uk company profitability is mean reverting a sample of roughly 987 firms per year for a period from 1982 2000 is used drawn from datastream in a simple partial adjustment model convergence towards the mean at a rate of about 25 per year is found the results are very similar in direction to those of fama and french 2000 but the results do not display significant non linearities the change in profitability appears to be more strongly influenced by dividends in the uk

services and the business models of product firms an empirical analysis of the software industry some product firms increasingly rely on service revenues as part of their business models one possible explanation is that they turn to services to generate additional profits when their product industries mature and product revenues and profits decline we explore this assumption by examining the role of services in the financial performance of firms in the prepackaged software products industry standard industrial classification code 7372 from 1990 to 2006 we find a convex nonlinear relationship between a product firm s fraction of total sales coming from services and its overall operating margins as expected firms with a very high level of product sales are most profitable and rising services are associated with declining profitability we find however that additional services start to have a positive marginal effect on the firm s overall profits when services reach a majority of a product firm s sales we show that traditional industry maturity arguments cannot fully explain our data it is likely that changes in both strategy and the business environment lead product firms to place more emphasis on services this paper was accepted by christoph loch r d and product development