interest rate deregulation monetary policy efficacy and rate rigidity abstract this paper examines the effects of interest rate regulation and subsequent deregulation on the efficacy of monetary policy and rigidity of retail bank deposit rates in hong kong using an error correction model we find that interest rate deregulation increases the efficacy of monetary policy by improving the correlation between retail bank deposit rates and market interest rates and increasing the degree of long term pass through for retail bank deposit rates our study also shows that the adjustments in retail bank deposit rates are asymmetric and rigid upwards during the regulated period but tend to be rigid downwards during the deregulated period the spreads between retail bank deposit rates and market rates have also tightened sharply after the removal of interest rate controls

interest rate pass through and monetary transmission evidence from individual financial institutions retail rates official interest rate changes should influence short rates on money market instruments and retail products such as deposit accounts and mortgages but complete pass through is often taken for granted this paper provides a theoretical and econometric framework for assessing the evidence for this assumption using seventeen years of monthly data for rates on thirteen deposit and mortgage products offered by individual uk financial institutions the methodology allows for asymmetries and non linearities in adjustment and the results show that the speed of adjustment in retail rates depends on whether the perceived gap between retail and base rates is widening or narrowing

food security and hedonic behaviour a case study of sao tome e principe abstract food security is still one of the main concerns in economic policy making in less developed countries the objective of the present study is to analyse technological innovation and technological change induced by economics forces with special attention to consumer behaviour consumer choice is studied together with the technological change process from the consumption side such that efficiency problems can be handled if a certain number of weak assumptions can be accepted the framework of the lancaster model is used to study the impact on food security on sao tome e principe changing from a centralised economic policy to a market oriented economy the paper addresses the need to understand how consumption innovation with the introduction of locally produced food consumption can be an efficient solution from the consumption point of view the results obtained with the introduction of matabala into the consumption choice set show that free market functioning supports local products consumption as an efficient solution in sao tome e principe

asymmetric information and price competition in small business lending abstract this paper examines the relationship between bank lending rates and their cost of funds in new zealand our results show that on average mortgage rates respond more quickly to changes in the cost of funds than base business lending rates we also find an asymmetry in the initial short run response of banks to changes in funding costs in particular our results show banks adjust mortgage rates downwards faster than upwards the speed to which lending rates revert back to their equilibrium relationship with funding costs varies across the lending markets we find the adjustment speed is faster when mortgage rates are below equilibrium whereas it is slower when business lending rates are above long run levels in relation to funding costs our analysis suggests that banks prefer the plain vanilla type of lending such as mortgages in comparison to small business lending consistent with asymmetric information associated with business loans

household food demand in burkina faso implications for food policy abstract chronic food production deficits since the early 1970s have prompted policymakers of burkina faso to emphasize technological research with the goal of increasing the production of the most consumed locally grown cereals sorghum millet and maize meanwhile urban consumers have been developing preferences for rice and wheat cereals that are primarily imported this study estimates demand relationships among food items in ouagadougou burkina the results of the estimation suggest that prices income household composition education marital status and urbanization were jointly important in explaining household expenditure allocations both local and imported cereal consumption responded positively to an income increase however incremental income changes would lead to relatively greater consumption of locally produced cereals by low income households whereas high income households would consume relatively more wheat and rice the household model is then used to demonstrate its relevance in addressing food policy issues by forecasting the levels of urban grain demand under alternative income and demographic scenarios with increased production due to advances in technology the urban demand levels do not exhaust the rural surplus of local cereals but deficits persist in the rice wheat sector the results underscore the importance of technological research since burkina could become self sufficient in at least the production of sorghum millet and maize

asymmetric pass through and risk of interest rate an empirical exploration of taiwan and hong kong this study employs the asymmetric threshold cointegration test suggested by enders and siklos 2001 and creates asymmetric ec egarch 1 1 m model to investigate the pass through of money market rate to banking retail rates in taiwan and hong kong it further explores the impact of interest volatility on interest rates over the period of february 1988 to december 2004 we find that the interest pass through mechanism of these two markets is noncomplete in addition based on the asymmetric threshold cointegration test we discover the existence of asymmetric cointegration relationship between retail rates and market rate in both markets in particular while employing asymmetric ec egarch 1 1 m model to test for the influence of money market rate adjustment and volatility on retail rates in short run we find robust evidence that there exist the upward rigidity in deposit rate and the downward rigidity in lending rate in both taiwan and hong kong this finding supports the hypothesis of the collusiv

productive and financial performance in u s manufacturing industries an integrated structural approach in the last few years macroeconomists and industrial organization researchers have reexamined relationships among scale economies markups economic profitability and productivity growth paul romer 14 has emphasized the importance of increasing returns for productivity growth at the aggregate industry or economy level empirical evidence supporting this at the industry level has been presented by robert hall 4 5 who reported both significant increasing returns and markups of price over marginal cost in various u s manufacturing sectors related evidence on the cyclical nature of markups in these industries suggesting some procyclicality of markup behavior has been presented by domowitz hubbard and petersen 3 analysis of the cyclical characteristics of robert solow s 16 productivity residual provided the basis for these empirical studies the resulting framework is limited however by its dependence on a number of restrictive assumptions which severely hamper analysis of interactions among these characteristics the purpose of this paper is to extend this type of analysis to consider profit maximizing markups economic profitability scale economies capacity utilization and productivity growth within an integrated theoretical structural model and to assess their interactions empirically for two digit u s manufacturing data more specifically using the new industrial economics approach outlined by timothy bresnahan 2 in which marginal cost and therefore markups are unobserved but estimated econometrically i specify an integrated cost and demand structure for each industry the structure is quite general in that i markups and returns to scale are permitted to vary over time they are not constant parameters ii shortand long run impacts are distinguished by explicit recognition of adjustment costs iii quasi fixity of both capital and labor is incorporated to accommodate labor hoarding as well as slow adjustment of capital iv input substitution is not constrained a priori a generalized leontief restricted cost function based on gross output is employed v nonstatic expectations are allowed for through an instrumental variable estimation procedure and vi the effects of cost and demand shocks are directly represented by specifying and estimating industry specific cost output demand and input demand functions

are estimates of calorie income fxelasticities too high a recalibration of the plausible range abstract the wide range of calorie income elasticities in the literature results in large part from the particular calorie and income variables used for estimation elasticities across four estimation techniques and four calorie income variable pairs for a sample of philippine farm households ranged from 0 03 to 0 59 estimates associated with calorie availability are biased upwards first because random errors in measuring food purchases are transmitted by construction both to calorie availability and total expenditures and second because the residual difference between family calorie intake and household calorie availability will often increase with income the calorie intake total expenditure variable pair gives the preferred elasticity estimate in the 0 08 0 14 range

the cyclical behavior of mark ups in u s manufacturing and trade new empirical evidence based on a model of optimal storage abstract an euler condition for optimal inventory accumulation is used to obtain information on the behavior of mark ups of price over marginal cost in u s manufacturing and trade data at the two digit sic level are used mark ups appear to be procyclical in most of the two digit sic sectors

an asymmetry generator for error coorection mechanisms with application to bank mortgage rate dynamics empirical evidence supports asymmetries in the adjustment of prices interest rates and other economic variables the asymmetry hypothesis however is often procedurally difficult to set up and test this article shows that a wide variety of such mechanisms can be nested within an asymmetry generator which represents the interactions between the disequilibrium term of an error correction mechanism and an ancillary driver process the asymmetry hypothesis can then be tested in a straightforward extension of linear statistical methods the methods are applied to 10 years of monthly new zealand mortgage rate data

some empirical evidence on the production level and production cost smoothing models of inventory investment the production smoothing model of inventories has long been the basic paradigm within which empirical research on inventories has been conducted the basic hypothesis embedded in this model is that inventories of finished goods serve primarily to smooth production levels in the face of fluctuating demand and convex cost functions however once we allow for shocks to technology and the costs of producing output firms will also use inventories to shift production from periods in which production costs are relatively high to periods in which production costs are relatively low in this sense inventories can serve to smooth production costs rather production levels in this paper we examine the empirical plausibility of the production level and production cost smoothing models of inventories our basic strategy is to derive and contrast a set of unconditional moment restrictions implied by these models in a way that minimizes the role of auxiliary assumptions regarding market structure and industry demand we find overwhelming evidence against the production level smoothing model and very little evidence against the production cost smoothing mode1 we conclude that the variance of production exceeds the variance of sales in most manufacturing industries because the production cost smoothing role of inventories is quantitatively more important than the production level smoothing role of inventories this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the production and inventory behavior of the american automobile industry understanding inventory movements is central to an understanding of business cycles this paper presents an empirical study of the behavior of inventories in the automobile industry it finds that inventory behavior is well explained by the assumption of intertemporal optimization with rational expectations the underlying cost structure appears to have substantial costs of changing production as well as substantial costs of being away from target inventory thelatter being a function of current sales given this cost structure whether inventory behavior is stabilizing or destabilizing depends on the characteristics of the demand process in the automobile industry inventory behavior is destabilizing the variance of production is larger than the variance of sales

changing food patterns in west africa implications for policy research abstract west african consumption of wheat and rice is growing rapidly despite technological barriers to production of these cereals in the region soaring imports are of particular concern in view of likely consumption trends maize imports are also growing rapidly as is production in the more humid countries to the detriment of sorghum the latter is performing relatively better in the drier countries possible factors underlying consumption shifts are discussed including price policies at variance with stated objectives possible policies to slow down these shifts are discussed along with research requirements for effective diagnosis and implementation

food aid a cause of development failure or an instrument for success the role of food aid in furthering the economic development of poor countries and in alleviating the adverse effects on the poor of structural and sectoral adjustment programs is discussed a simple analytical framework for evaluating the incentive and welfare impact of food aid is suggested domestic and international markets for food historically have been subject to severe distortions leading to ever growing food stocks in some mainly rich countries while in others largely poor many cannot afford to consume enough food the possible impact of distortion free global food markets is sketched the use of surplus food for payment of wages in rural work programs has often been proposed as a means to create productive assets while alleviating poverty using an applied general equilibrium model of the indian economy it is shown that a well designed and efficiently implemented food for work program can virtually eliminate abject poverty in india at a modest cost experience with food aid in several other countries is also briefly discussed

a reappraisal of state owned banks we revisit the public banks debate survey the theoretical arguments and test the robustness and expand the existing empirical evidence while we find some support for the view that public banks do not allocate credit optimally we also report indicative evidence that they exert a positive influence on private bank efficiency and may contribute to reduce credit procyclicality ultimately we find that the recent criticism to public banks has generally been based on inconclusive cross country evidence more specific bank level research is still needed to substantiate a case for or against public banks in developing economies

market structure and cyclical fluctuations in u s manufacturing the relevance of imperfect competition for models of economic fluctuations has received increased attention from researchers in both macroeconomics and industrial organization the authors outline a new methodology for estimating industry markups of price over marginal cost and the influence of market structure on cyclical movements in total factor productivity measures of industry concentration import competition and unionization are important for explaining markups in some industry groups much of the estimated markup of price over marginal cost is accounted for by noncapital fixed costs finally the authors show that their estimated margins fluctuate substantially over the cycle in particular markups are countercyclical especially in concentrated durable goods industries copyright 1988 by mit press

asymmetric adjustment of commercial bank interest rates evidence from malaysia and singapore abstract this paper examines the rigidity of commercial bank interest rates using evidence from singapore and malaysia an asymmetric error correction technique is used to test whether mean adjustment lags are different when retail rates are above or below their equilibrium levels it is concluded in both countries that the mean adjustment lag is shorter when the deposit rate is above its equilibrium than when it is below its equilibrium using the framework of hannan and berger 1991 this finding implies that the hypothesis of collusion cannot be rejected

business cycles and the relationship between concentration and price cost margins using a newly constructed panel data base we examine changes in price cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981 a key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period we provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations this finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition the results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading

joint determination of food consumption and production in rural sierra leone estimates of a household firm model abstract this paper investigates the determination of food consumption for rural households in sierra leone that produce the foods which they consume a household firm model is estimated with seven commodities including five foods non foods and labor as compared to three commodities in past studies such food disaggregation permits tracing of the effects of socioeconomic variables on household nutrient availability household specialization in production is such that censored data is a problem a tobit approach is used to correct for this for most crops the own price effects on consumption remain negative when a price change is allowed to shift the budget constraint by effecting the profits from home production elasticities of calorie availability with respect to toal expenditure are found to be sizeable varying little by expenditure group the price elasticities of calorie availability are generally positive however an important exception occurs for price of the staple food rice this exception has several important policy implications which are explored

market power and inflation market power exercised by firms has become central to macroeconomics recent theoretical work highlights the importance of the relation between market power and inflation we examine this relation for individual firms in eleven u s industries our econometric framework exploits restrictions from dynamic theory and information from financial markets to generate quantitative evidence on the responsiveness of market power to inflation we find that inflation usually has a positive effect on market power this relation is heterogeneous across the eleven industries and statistically significant positive relations are concentrated in industries with little market power

imperfect competition in bank retail markets deposit and loan rate dynamics and incomplete pass through this paper examines determinants of pass through from the market interest rate to bank retail deposit and loan rates a dynamic adjustment cost model with imperfect competition implies that these rates depend on own lagged values and on lagged current and expected future values of the security rate greater competition in retail markets reduces the impact of lagged and expected rates on current retail rates while raising the effect of the current security rate yielding greater pass through these results have important implications for both the specifications used in empirical work and biases introduced into estimates of pass through effects

excess liquidity bank pricing rules and monetary policy abstract this paper studies the implications of excess bank liquidity for the effectiveness of monetary policy in a simple model with credit market imperfections the demand for excess reserves is determined by precautionary factors and the opportunity cost of holding cash it is argued that excess liquidity may impart greater stickiness to the deposit rate in response to a monetary contraction and induce an easing of collateral requirements on borrowers which in turn may translate into a lower risk premium and lower lending rates as a result asymmetric bank pricing behavior under excess liquidity may hamper the ability of a contractionary monetary policy to lower inflation

market driven coal prices and state administered electricity prices in china this paper analyzes how the chinese government adjusts electricity prices for both industrial and residential users in response to changes in coal prices using an asymmetric error correction model our results show that there is a long term relation between the coal price and electricity prices but the relationship is weak especially for residential pricing in the short run we find electricity prices are adjusting faster upwards than downwards price adjustment towards long run equilibrium is faster for residential users upwards than downwards on the other hand we find no evidence of asymmetric equilibrium adjustment in the electricity price for industrial use the weak long term relationship reflects the rigidity in electricity pricing and government s reluctance to subject end users to fluctuations of raw materials cost shifts

competition transmission and bank pricing policies evidence from belgian loan and deposit markets abstract this paper addresses the pass through from market interest rates to retail bank interest rates the paper advocates a heterogeneous approach and applies it to the belgian banking market a substantial proportion of the heterogeneity in bank pricing policies can be explained by the bank lending channel and the relative market power hypothesis the results also suggest that the long term pass through is typically less than one for one rejecting the completeness hypothesis while there is no convincing evidence for asymmetry in retail rates large deviations from equilibrium mark ups are faster reduced than small deviations overall conditions for corporate loans are more competitive compared to consumer loans demand and savings deposits have by far the most rigid prices

monetary policy transparency and pass through of retail interest rates abstract this paper examines the degree of pass through and adjustment speed of retail interest rates in response to changes in benchmark market rates in new zealand during the period 1994 2004 we consider the effects of policy transparency and financial structure of the monetary transmission mechanism new zealand is the first oecd country to adopt a full fledged inflation targeting regime with specific accountability and transparency provisions policy transparency was further enhanced by a shift from quantity settlement cash to price interest rate operating targets in 1999 using phillips loretan estimates of cointegrating regressions we find complete long term pass through for some but not all retail rates our results also show that the introduction of the official cash rate ocr increased the pass through of floating and deposit rates but not fixed mortgage rates in line with previous studies we find the immediate pass through of market interest rates to bank retail rates to be incomplete although we find no statistical evidence for asymmetric response of retail rates to changes in market rates other than for business lending rates in the pre ocr period differences in the magnitude of mean adjustment lags indicate that banks appear to pass on decreases to fixed mortgage rates faster overall our results confirm that monetary policy rate has more influence on short term interest rates and that increased transparency has lowered instrument volatility and enhanced the efficacy of policy

regional interest rate pass through in italy this paper estimates the pass through and speed of adjustment of italian regional interest rates to changes in the money market rate for the period 1998q1 2009q4 our main findings suggest that the markup for the lending rates that banks charge are generally higher in the south than in the north moreover our results indicate that the pass through tends to be longer in southern regions we find little evidence supporting the hypothesis of asymmetric adjustment in the lending rates but detect some evidence supporting upward rigidity in the regional deposit rates

disaggregating food consumption parameters designing targeted nutritional interventions abstract this article is concerned with a new nutritional intervention strategy which is based on the belief that malnourished people eat different types of food to the well nourished the calculation of disaggregated food consumption parameters can identify inferior food commodities and the subsidization of these commodities will target intervention to those most in need the effectiveness of this policy depends on the understanding of its theoretical basis the author introduces the policy maker to this by reviewing the theoretical basis for consumption analysis and then several key studies

economic fluctuations market power and returns to scale evidence from firm level data recent research on aggregate fluctuations coupled with ongoing work in industrial organization has renewed interest in the existence magnitude and cyclical pattern of market power and the extent of increasing returns to scale by exploiting restrictions from dynamic theory and information from financial markets we present a framework for generating quantitative evidence on market power and returns to scale tailoring the econometric model to firm level panel data we calculate the percentage differential between price and marginal cost the lerner index in terms of the parameters from the econometric system results for firms in eleven industries indicate that there is a great deal of heterogeneity in the extent of market power industries with significantly positive lerner indices tend to have substantial increasing returns in the production technology we find that there is only a modest relation between our estimated lerner indices and traditional measures of market power and that when market power varies temporally it is usually procyclical thus variations in the markup of price over marginal cost may help dampen aggregate economic fluctuations

food demand studies in sub saharan africa a survey of empirical evidence abstract the recent empirical food demand studies on sub saharan africa show significant advances in demand specification and methodology especially in the application of less restrictive and theoretically consistent flexible functional forms the findings to date establish some broad patterns on effect of income household demography and life cycle location and prices on food demand patterns however the numerical values of the demand estimates are less generalizable because of an insufficient number of data points to separate the true demand component from other confounding factors which are linked to differences in modeling and estimation of demand relations the priority for future research is to generate sufficiently detailed demand estimates that have a high utility for disaggregated policy analysis but are based on a theoretically consistent and comparable methodology

the cyclical behavior of marginal cost and price the author examines the cyclical behavior of price marginal cost margins for u s manufac turing after 1956 short run marginal cost is markedly procyclical this is primarily due to procyclical overtime payments incurred beca use employment is not perfectly flexible in most industries output price fails to respond to the cyclical movement in marginal cost so price marginal cost margins are markedly countercyclical the res ults contradict business cycle theories that explain low production i n a recession by a high real cost of producing they support theories that explain low production in a recession by the inability of firms to sell their output copyright 1987 by american economic association

credit cronyism and control evidence from the americas abstract i examine the effects of corruption and government control of the banking system for 18 western hemisphere countries on the sensitivity of commercial lending rates to changes in international financial conditions and find that most countries lending rates are insensitive to these conditions only the least corrupt nations exhibit a significant positive relation between lending rates and international financial conditions the responsiveness of these lending rates is nonlinearly related to corruption and government control of the banking sector the findings suggest that both corruption and government control of banks need to be considered when analyzing international credit markets

projected demand and supply for various foods in west africa implications for investments and food policy abstract this paper a summarizes recent evidence of changes in dietary patterns in the 15 ecowas countries of west africa over the past 30 years and the forces driving those changes in this paper the term west africa refers to the 15 countries that are members of the economic community of west african states ecowas benin burkina faso cape verde cote d ivoire the gambia ghana guinea guinea bissau liberia mali niger nigeria senegal sierra leone and togo b uses expenditure elasticity estimates derived from budget consumption studies in 8 of these countries burkina faso cote d ivoire ghana mali niger nigeria senegal and togo and hypotheses about alternative income growth trajectories to develop scenarios about the evolution of demand for various foods over the period 2010 2040 c compares the projected demand growth with projection of production growth in key commodities to identify potential or increasing demand supply gaps and d derives implications for needed investments and policies regarding different commodities and components of the west african agrifood system including identifying gaps in the current african union led comprehensive africa agriculture development caadp programs the analysis shows that in absolute terms production shortfalls relative to demand for starchy staples particularly rice and wheat will continue to pose a major challenge for ecowas countries in relative terms however imbalances between domestic production and demand will increase more quickly for foods with high income elasticities of demand such as meat dairy products seafood fruits and vegetables and vegetable oils urban demand will grow two to four times faster than rural demand depending on the commodity putting increased pressure on already stressed urban food marketing systems substantial variations in supply demand gaps across countries suggest that more fluid regional trade could help individual countries cope with these challenges the findings also suggest that the focus of food policies in west africa historically on starchy staples particularly cereals needs to broaden to include a range of higher value products for which demand is likely to increase very rapidly in the near future

impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass through in the euro area this article analyses the impact of loan market competition on the interest rates applied by euro area banks to loans during the period 1994 2004 using a novel measure of competition called the boone indicator we find evidence that stronger competition implies significantly lower spreads between bank and market interest rates for most loan market products in line with expectations this result implies that stronger competition causes both lower bank interest rates and a stronger pass through of market rate changes into bank rates evidence of the latter is also presented by our error correction model ecm for bank rates further banks compensate income losses from increased loan market competition by offering lower deposit rates our findings with respect to the loan market rates have important monetary policy implications as they suggest that measures to promote competition in the european banking sector are likely to render the monetary policy transmission mechanism more effective

monetary transmission via the administered interest rates channel abstract this paper examines the dynamics of administered interest rate changes in response to changes in the benchmark money market rate in singapore our results show that the administered rates adjustment speed differs across both financial institutions and financial products the financial institutions administered lending and deposit rates moreover are more rigid when they are below their equilibrium level than when they are above our finding hence implies that the speed of monetary transmission is not uniform across all sectors of the economy and that a tightening monetary policy takes a longer time to impact the economy than an expansionary monetary policy

post deregulation bank deposit rate pricing the multivariate dynamics the relationship between wholesale and retail interest rates since deregulation is of substantial interest to economists and policymakers because the predictability of the monetary aggregates and their relationship to bank reserves depend on adjustment patterns in the wholesale and retail money markets we provide evidence on the nature of wholesale retail interest rate relationships by examining the dynamic interactions among two wholesale interest rates federal funds and six month treasury bills and three retail deposit rates six month consumer certificates of deposit money market deposit accounts and super now s we perform a multivariate time series analysis with particular attention paid to causal patterns and the shapes of impulse response functions a number of stylized facts related to size of adjustment speed of adjustment and pattern of adjustment are established for the response of retail rates to unanticipated shocks in wholesale rates

bank funding costs in a rising interest rate environment one key risk to the banking system is how funding costs will change as monetary policy is normalized and interest rates rise after almost a decade of near zero rates our contribution is to develop a model that jointly estimates banks balance sheets and retail interest rates to arrive at a consistent estimate of the change in bank funding costs as market rates change our estimates imply a 100 basis point shock to the federal funds rate would increase overall deposit funding costs by about 40 billion which is roughly equal to 25 of aggregate annual net income for commercial banks and savings institutions we also find that deposit rate responses are largely symmetric in contrast to some previous research showing deposit rates are less responsive to upward movements in reference rates we introduce unique and confidential data on bank deposit betas to anchor our results

interest rate pass through and asymmetric adjustment evidence from the federal funds rate operating target period this study examines the long run interest rate pass through of the federal funds rate to the prime rate and whether there is asymmetric adjustment in the prime rate using the enders siklos 2001 momentum threshold autoregressive model over the period february 1987 to october 2005 once allowance is made for the endogenously determined structural break in the cointegrating relationship in april 1996 the adjustment of the prime rate to changes in the federal funds rate appears asymmetric with upward rigidity a result contrary to previous studies which found that the prime rate exhibits downward rigidity the finding of upward rigidity in the prime rate lends support for the customer reaction and adverse selection hypotheses moreover the empirical evidence seems to support the observation of increased pass through as a result of heightened competition in the banking industry as well as the federal reserve s enhanced transparency in monetary policy during the 1990s

production and inventory control at the general motors corporation during the 1920 s and 1930 s this paper analyzes dynamics of production and inventories at the general motors corporation during the 1920s and 1930s the authors begin by examining anecdotal evidence on the nature of the production control system in force during that period motivated by that evidence they then extend the conventional linear quadratic model of production behavior to take account of annual shutdown finally the authors apply the modified model to newly available data on monthly unit production sales and inventories during 1924 40 general motors appears to have been aiming to maintain a targeted level of inventory relative to expected sales and secondarily to smooth production copyright 1993 by american economic association