fighting with one hand tied behind the back political budget cycles in the west german states theories of political budget cycles have been contested because scholars find that incumbents can manipulate deficits in the pre election period only if fiscal transparency is low i argue that these findings do not generally rule out the possibility of fiscal electioneering governments may increase spending on highly visible policies the composition of the budget serves as a second best strategy it increases political support without straining the budget balance an empirical analysis of the west german states reveals alternative electoral budget strategies and ultimately point to the importance of analyzing how governments choose between alternative fiscal instruments

political cycles and economic performance in oecd countries empirical evidence from 1951 2006 this paper examines whether electoral motives and government ideology influence short term economic performance i employ data on annual gdp growth in 21 oecd countries over the 1951 2006 period and provide a battery of empirical tests in countries with two party systems gdp growth is boosted before elections and under leftwing governments in the first two years of a legislative period these findings indicate that political cycles are more prevalent in two party systems because voters can clearly punish or reward political parties for governmental performance my findings imply that we need more elaborate theories of how government ideology and electoral motives influence short term economic performance

the influence of probability on risky choice a parametric examination abstract the appeal of expected utility theory as a basis for a descriptive model of risky decision making has diminished as a result of empirical evidence which suggests that individuals do not behave in a manner consistent with the prescriptive tenets of eut in this paper we explore the influence of probability on risky choice by proposing and estimating a parametric model of risky decision making our results suggest that models which provide for probability transformations are most appropriate for the majority of subjects further we find that the transformation differs for most subjects depending upon whether the risky outcomes are gains or losses most subjects are considerably less sensitive to changes in mid range probability than is proposed by the expected utility model and risk seeking behavior over long shot odds is common

political cycles in oecd economies this paper studies whether the dynamic behaviour of gnp growth unemployment and inflation is systematically affected by the timing of elections and of changes of governments the sample include the last three decades in 18 oecd economies we explicitly test the implication of several models of political cycles both of the opportunistic and of the partisan type also we confront the implication of recent rational models with more traditional approaches our results can be summarized as follows a the political business cycle hypothesis as formulated in nordhaus 1975 on output and unemployment is generally rejected by the data b inflation tends to increase immediately after elections perhaps as a result of pre electoral expansionary monetary and fiscal policies c we find evidence of temporary partisan differences in output and unemployment and of long run partisan differences in the inflation rate as implied by the rational partisan theory by alesina 1987 d we find virtually no evidence of permanent partisan differences in output growth and unemployment

bounded rationality climate risks and insurance is there a market for natural disasters this paper examines the role of insurances to reduce uncertainty associated with climate change losses for individuals of special interest is the value individuals place on the reduction of increased flood risks by insurance coverage using rank dependent utility and prospect theories risk premiums are estimated under different climate change scenarios for the netherlands the study delivers two main insights first estimation results suggest that a profitable flood insurance market could be feasible second climate change has the potential to increase the profitability of offering flood insurance 2009 by the board of regents of the university of wisconsin system

applications of behavioural economics to tax evasion the paper reviews recent models that have applied the techniques of behavioural economics to the analysis of the tax compliance choice of an individual taxpayer the construction of these models is motivated by the failure of the yitzhaki version of the allingham sandmo model to predict correctly the proportion of taxpayers who will evade and the effect of an increase in the tax rate upon the chosen level of evasion recent approaches have applied non expected utility theory to the compliance decision and have addressed social interaction the models we describe are able to match the observed extent of evasion and correctly predict the tax effect but do not have the parsimony or precision of the yitzhaki model

optimism pessimism and financial bubbles this paper shows that it is possible to extend the scope of the existence of rational bubbles when uncertainty is introduced associated with rank dependent expected utility this rdu assumption can be viewed as a transformation of probabilities depending on the pessimism optimism of the agent the results show that pessimism favors the existence of deterministic bubbles when optimism may promote the existence of stochastic bubbles moreover under pessimism the rdu assumption may generate multiple bubbly equilibria the rdu assumption also leads to new conditions ensuring the absence of pareto optimality of the competitive equilibrium without bubbles these conditions still govern the existence of bubbles

cautious risk takers investor preferences and demand for active management actively managed mutual funds have distinct return distributions from their passive benchmarks and our theoretical analysis using tail sensitive risk preferences suggests that active value and growth funds may serve to reduce downside risk and capture upside potential respectively furthermore tail sensitivity measures estimated from the empirical pricing kernel have significant explanatory power for active fund flows even after controlling for business cycles and market wide sentiment finally active funds unlike their passive counterparts have exposures to option strategies hedging downside risk or capturing upside potential

an analysis of policy scenario effects on the adoption of energy production on the farm a case study in emilia romagna italy abstract the agriculture sector s contribution to energy production is a central issue in ongoing policy debates and one of the central elements of the development of bioeconomy sector the common agricultural policy cap is one of the main determinants of the different farm strategies of european farmers the cap is now undergoing a thorough revision process which necessarily includes a debate of the role of the policy in rural areas and the effectiveness of the various cap policy mechanisms the objective of this paper is to assess the impact of alternative cap scenarios in the light of the possible changes in 2013 and the willingness to adopt energy plants for energy crops in the province of bologna italy this is pursued using both survey information and farm household mathematical programming models hence using stated intentions and simulated profitability to analyse the adopt of new technologies for energy production the results underscore the relevance of the cap scenarios in altering intentions with regard to the adoption of energy production and the relevant effect of uncertainty in delaying the diffusion of energy production systems

risk averters that love risk marginal risk aversion in comparison to a reference gamble we propose an analytical distinction between standard risk aversion based on the valuation of a single gamble and marginal risk aversion based on the change in valuation between two gambles we measure marginal risk aversion in two dimensions mean and variance data from a field experiment is used to study marginal risk aversion our results suggest that individuals rely on a reference gamble when assessing marginal risk individual responses to marginal changes in mean and variance are nearly identical in direction and magnitude suggesting that information on both standard and marginal risk aversion is needed to accurately model behavior copyright 2008 oxford university press

macroeconomic policy in a two party system as a repeated game this paper considers the interaction of two parties with different objectives concerning inflation and unemployment and rational and forward looking wage setters if discretionary policies are followed an economic cycle related to the political cycle results in equilibrium this cycle is significantly different from the traditional political business cycle reputational mechanisms due to the repeated interaction of the two parties and the public or commitments to a common policy rule can improve upon the discretionary outcome by reducing or eliminating the magnitude of the economic fluctuations

lottery dependent utility in this paper we propose a model for decision making under risk that is capable of predicting empirically observed preference patterns that have been found to be incompatible with the expected utility model the model departs from the classical expected utility model by allowing utilities to depend on the lottery the dependence of utilities on the lottery being evaluated is achieved by restricting the utility measure to a convenient parametric family of functions the idea then is to use each lottery to determine a specific parameter value thus characterizing the utility function for each particular lottery the expected value of this lottery dependent utility function provides the overall measure of preference the model retains the properties of transitivity stochastic dominance and continuity it also permits types of analyses such as exploitation of basic attitudes toward risk through risk aversion properties that have been found useful in decision theory the primary use of our model is in descr

unemployment and inflation consequences of unexpected election results the empirical evidence toward rational partisan theory of business cycles is mixed and thus inconclusive this is due to the enormous heterogeneity of the existing empirical studies only a few of these test explicitly for the central theoretical innovation that post electoral blips in economic activity depend on the degree of the electoral surprise using polling data we present empirical evidence in favor of rational partisan theory for a panel of oecd countries

risk and rationality the effects of mood and decision rules on probability weighting empirical research has shown that people tend to overweight small probabilities and underweight large probabilities when valuing risky prospects but little is known about factors influencing the shape of the probability weighting curve based on a laboratory experiment with monetary incentives we demonstrate that pre existing good mood is significantly associated with women s probability weights women in a better than normal mood tend to weight probabilities relatively more optimistically many men however seem to be immunized against effects of incidental mood by applying a mechanical decision criterion such as maximization of expected value

modeling risk aversion in economics to capture the risk aversion intuition the standard approach in economics has been to utilize the model of expected utility in which risk aversion derives from diminishing marginal utility for wealth or diminishing marginal utility for aggregate consumption the expected utility model for risk aversion has been used to derive many important insights but over the years economists and psychologists have identified various problematic issues with expected utility as a descriptive model of choice in this article we urge economists to take seriously the research agenda of developing and assessing different ways to model risk aversion we proceed in three main steps first we highlight that the basic intuition of risk aversion that drives many results in economics is not intimately tied to expected utility second we describe a few alternative models that can also capture the basic intuition of risk aversion finally we discuss that while expected utility and the alternative models might all capture the basic intuition of risk aversion the alternative models can generate additional more nuanced implications not shared with expected utility that in some cases seem to be borne out by data we emphasize that these alternative models also are not perfect and further research is needed to identify even better approaches

modeling the demand for narrow money in the united kingdom and the united states abstract despite the importance of well specified empirical money demand functions for inference forecasting and policy problems in modeling have arisen concerning the economic theories of money demand the data institutional frameworks financial innovation and econometric implementation by developing constant data coherent m 1 demand equations for the u k and the u s we investigate these issues and explain such puzzles as missing money the great velocity decline and the recent explosion in m 1 the endogeneity of money the lucas critique and the non invertibility of our m 1 models are also discussed

bargaining and boldness abstract we study a multiperson bargaining problem with general risk preferences through the use of shaked s game of cycling offers with exogenous breakdown if preferences are smooth then as the risk of breakdown vanishes the limiting outcome is one in which bargainers are equally marginally bold where a bargainer s marginal boldness measures his willingness to risk disagreement in return for a marginal improvement in his position under smoothness any ordinal nash solution is an equally marginally bold outcome however unlike the concept of the ordinal nash solution a unique equally marginally bold outcome exists in natural cases in particular if all bargainers have risk averse preferences of the rank dependent expected utility type for these preferences the equally marginally bold outcome maximizes a bargaining power adjusted asymmetric nash product where the degree of asymmetry is determined by the disparity in the marginal valuation of certainty among bargainers journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 c78 d81

efficient patent pools the paper builds a tractable model of patent pools agreements among patent owners to license sets of their patents it provides a necessary and sufficient condition for patent pools to enhance welfare and shows that requiring pool members to be able to independently license patents matters if and only if the pool is otherwise welfare reducing the paper allows patents to differ in importance asymmetric blocking patterns and licensors to also be licensees we undertake some initial exploration of the impact of pools on innovation the analysis has broader applicability than pools being relevant to a number of co marketing arrangements

some remarks on quiggin s anticipated utility abstract this remark proves that quiggin s anticipated utility function may solve the allais paradox and the common ratio effect for some generalizations of these it is needed to assume that the decision weight function is concave

searching for political business cycles in germany one reslt of the revitalised literature on political business cycles is that there are signs in german data that elections and ideology have an impact however using monthly data for the period 1950 1989 and standard methods of time series analysis we reject both the nordhaus hypothesis of opportunistic cycles and the partisan approaches by hibbs ans alesina we show that some results are sensitive to the assumption of stationarity there are signs of policy cycles in m1 it is hard though to bring this in line with the rogoff hypothesis of rational opportunistic cycles because of the german institutional setting

the digital provide information technology market performance and welfare in the south indian fisheries sector when information is limited or costly agents are unable to engage in optimal arbitrage excess price dispersion across markets can arise and goods may not be allocated efficiently in this setting information technologies may improve market performance and increase welfare between 1997 and 2001 mobile phone service was introduced throughout kerala a state in india with a large fishing industry using microlevel survey data we show that the adoption of mobile phones by fishermen and wholesalers was associated with a dramatic reduction in price dispersion the complete elimination of waste and near perfect adherence to the law of one price both consumer and producer welfare increased

political parties world demand and unemployment domestic and international sources of economic activity this article replicates and extends earlier work on the politics of macroeconomic policy by considering political effects on unemployment in 14 western industrial nations between 1960 and 1983 changes of party control of government display broadly the expected effects namely that unemployment falls under left wing governments and rises under right wing governments however the principal conclusions of this article are that partisan effects on unemployment in open economies that is economies heavily dependent on trade with other countries can only be satisfactorily estimated relative to the constraint imposed by the level of world economic activity and that in addition to politicians strategic incentives political institutions and economic regime constraints also determine whether partisan effects on unemployment will be sustained transitory or absent with respect to the latter on the whole no effects are found where no such effects were promised by the new government before taking office where one party or dominant partner coalitions form the effect on unemployment is transitory whereas where broad coalitions form it is sustained or absent finally ceteris paribus any partisan effects are more likely where governments secure parliamentary majorities

experienced vs described uncertainty do we need two prospect theory specifications this paper reports on the results of an experimental elicitation at the individual level of all prospect theory components i e utility loss aversion and weighting functions in two decision contexts situations where alternatives are described as probability distributions and situations where the decision maker must experience unknown probability distributions through sampling before choice for description based decisions our results are fully consistent with prospect theory s empirical findings under risk furthermore no significant differences are detected across contexts as regards utility and loss aversion whereas decision weights exhibit similar qualitative properties across contexts typically found under prospect theory our data suggest that for gains at least the subjective treatment of uncertainty in experience based and description based decisions is significantly different more specifically we observe a less pronounced overweighting of small probabilities and a more pronounced underweighting of moderate and high probabilities for experience based decisions on the contrary for losses no significant differences were observed in the evaluation of prospects across contexts this paper was accepted by george wu decision analysis

electoral cycles in active labor market policies we examine how electoral motives influence active labor market policies that promote short term job creation such policies reduce measures of unemployment using german state data for the period 1985 to 2004 we show that election motivated politicians pushed job promotion schemes before elections

ambiguity about audit probability tax compliance and taxpayer welfare we show that an increase in uncertainty about the probability of being audited ambiguity increases tax compliance for ambiguity averse taxpayers but reduces compliance for ambiguity lovers because experimental evidence reveals considerable heterogeneity with respect to ambiguity preferences we conclude that fostering uncertainty about the probability of being audited may not be an effective policy for increasing taxpayer compliance moreover because the tax authority can neither categorize nor screen taxpayers on the basis of their preferences for ambiguity it is not likely to be either a useful or a desirable instrument for increasing taxpayer welfare jel h26 d81

foundations of decision analysis along the way this paper offers a personal perspective on the development of decision theory and related subjects during the past half century it first reviews six milestones in the foundations of decision analysis that are associated with frank p ramsey john von neumann and oskar morgenstern leonard j savage maurice allais and ward edwards west churchman and russell ackoff and kenneth arrow it then gives a personal account of further developments over the past 30 years in linear utility theory subjective probability and ambiguity nonlinear preference and utility stochastic dominance and inequality analysis multiattribute utility theory and the theory of social choice the paper could be viewed as a supplement to my extensive review of utility theory in management science some 20 years ago however it makes no claim of completeness since its main aim is to recall important debts and describe what it has been like to be a part of the development of decision analysis in the past few decades

economic freedom and government ideology across the german states potrafke n economic freedom and government ideology across the german states regional studies this paper examines whether government ideology influenced economic freedom across the german states the results show that in former west germany rightwing governments promoted economic freedom whereas leftwing governments confined it in the former east germany however rightwing governments were not associated with propagating economic freedom this finding appears to conflict with the common notion of policy convergence at the federal level in fact the observed variation in political preferences across states may indicate that politicians gratify the local electorate and in return offer moderate policies at the federal level potrafke n potrafke n la liberte economique et l ideologie du gou

retail banking and behavioral financial engineering the case of structured products abstract we apply cumulative prospect theory and hedonic framing to evaluate discount reverse convertibles drcs and reverse convertible bonds rcbs as important examples of structured products from a boundedly rational investor s point of view while common expected utility theory would also conclude that drcs and rcbs are of interest to investors with moderate return expectations and underestimated stock return volatility that theory would overestimate the market success of drcs and underestimate that of rcbs in comparison to a situation with bounded rationality hedonic framing and relatively low subjectively felt competence levels of investors are decisive for the demand for rcbs

the probability premium a graphical representation we illustrate that pratt s probability premium can be given a simple graphical representation allowing a direct comparison to the equivalent but more prevalent concept of risk premium under expected utility we also show that the probability premium s graphical representation under the dual theory mimics that of the risk premium under expected utility

cumulative prospect theory option returns and the variance premium the variance premium and the pricing of out of the money otm equity index options are major challenges to standard asset pricing models we develop a tractable equilibrium model with cumulative prospect theory cpt preferences that can overcome both challenges the key insight is that the variance premium can be written as the expected return on a portfolio of otm call and put options and the probability weighting feature of cpt can explain the puzzlingly low returns observed for these options using gmm on a sample of u s index option returns between 1996 and 2010 we show that the cpt model ts well observed option prices and therefore the variance premium in a dynamic setting probability weighting and time varying equity return volatility combine to match the observed time series pattern of the variance premium

a theory of subjective compound lotteries abstract we develop a savage type model of choice under uncertainty in which agents identify uncertain prospects with subjective compound lotteries our theory permits issue preference that is agents may not be indifferent among gambles that yield the same probability distribution if they depend on different issues hence we establish subjective foundations for the anscombe aumann framework and other models with two different types of probabilities we define second order risk as risk that resolves in the first stage of the compound lottery and show that uncertainty aversion implies aversion to second order risk which implies issue preference and behavior consistent with the ellsberg paradox

government institutional effects on the value of seasonal climate forecasts the impact of government institutions on the value of improved climate forecasts is examined results suggest that crop insurance and earned income tax credit have little effect on the expected change in after tax cash flows federal tax law has only a modest influence as expected the disaster program decreases the value of improved climate forecasts with no price changes the farm program lowers the value of the forecasts because of the acreage reduction provisions with at least some price decreases the farm program increases the value of climate forecasts here the price supports override the acreage reduction provisions

can public private partnerships leverage private investment in agricultural value chains in africa a preliminary review summary public private partnerships ppps may be one way of increasing the level of private sector investment into poorly performing agricultural value chains this paper considers a range of ppp mechanisms that respond to different market failures affecting such chains and draws on principal agent theory to illustrate the challenges it reviews emerging experience with a number of these mechanisms along with experience from other sectors that may shed light on generic problems of implementing ppps in africa while finding some positive impacts on investment it notes that state failures can also undermine ppp effectiveness as the evidence base is still limited it calls on organizations promoting innovative ppps to disclose available information for critical examination

climate and agricultural risk measuring the effect of enso on u s crop insurance predictive models of climatic phenomena can aid in insurance program design and decision making extreme weather outcomes have been linked to the el nino southern oscillation enso which globally impacts agricultural production this study demonstrates that extreme enso events alter cotton yield distributions in the southeastern united states these impacts translate into economically meaningful effects on crop insurance premium rates commercial insurers can use publicly available information to determine if government set premium rates are mispriced and in turn extract economic rents via the federally mandated standard reinsurance agreement by ceding underpriced policies in el nino and la nina years we find that private insurance companies can reduce paid indemnities by 10 15 on average

the determinants of information value synthesizing some general results this paper identifies the determinants of information value and synthesizes some general results concerning their effects while some attributes of an information system exhibit a consistent directional effect on information value attributes of the decision setting and decision maker do not

stochastic dominance in regret theory the regret theory of choice under uncertainty is known to admit intransitivities in preference relations in this paper the stochastic dominance properties of the theory are examined it is shown that the usual definition of first stochastic dominance is not satisfied by regret theoretic preferences and that in general violations of first stochastic dominance are not merely permitted but required an exact characterization of the stochastic dominance rule corresponding to regret theoretic preferences is presented this concept is weaker than the usual definition but stronger than the notion of statewise dominance in which one prospect yields a preferred outcome with probability 1 theories of choice under uncertainty have proliferated in recent years after a long period in which the expected utility eu approach of von neumann and morgenstern 1944 was pre eminent the breakdown of the dominance in eu theory reflects the increasing body of evidence that the choices made by many people systematically violate the predictions of the theory the axiomatic foundations of the theory and in particular the independence axiom have also received severe questioning ever since the famous critique of allais 1953

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

theories of choice under risk insights from financial markets abstract to date the plausibility of theories of choice under risk hinges are mainly on experimental evidence this paper devises and implements an approach amenable of assessing the performance of three families of models expected utility rank dependent expected utility and the cumulative prospect theory using information from financial asset markets our findings unequivocally support reference point dependence diminishing marginal sensitivity loss aversion and nonlinear weighting of gain and loss physical probabilities the empirical observations are found to be robust to inter alia the parameterization of the utility and probability weighting functions day of the week effects the choice of a reference point and the introduction of possible low probability market crashes peso component

valuing forecast characteristics in a dynamic agricultural production system a dynamic programming model of east central illinois corn production is utilized to determine the value of seasonal climate forecasts results indicate that the value of climate forecasts is sensitive to economic conditions as well as forecast characteristics a trade off between forecast accuracy and lead time exists a less accurate forecast received earlier in the production process may be more valuable than a more accurate forecast received later additional characteristics evaluated include forecast periods of greatest importance prior knowledge assumptions and interactions between forecasting adjacent periods

reconsiderations in the foundations of decision under uncertainty an explosion has occurred during the past decade in the foundations of decision making under risk and uncertainty the long dormant challenges of allais i 953a b to the von neumann morgenstern i944 independence axioms of allais and of ellsberg 1 96 i to savage s i 954 sure thing principle and of may 1954 and tversky i969 to the transitivity of preferences have sprung to new life through widespread empirical corroboration in the wake of the new evidence an array of representations of preferences has been proposed to accommodate failures of one or more of the traditional axioms 2 although some new models are solely descriptive kahneman and tversky 1979 others have normative interest as competitors of the von neumannmorgenstern expected utility theory quiggin i982 machina i982 chew i982 i983 fishburn i982 or of savage s subjective probability expected utility theory bell i982 loomes and sugden i982 i987 schmeidler i984 gilboa i985 luce and narens i985 fishburn i984 b i986b one benefit of recent foundational work is a deeper understanding of the content and implications of expected utility coupled with a new appreciation of the underlying issues that divided decision theorists a generation ago i am thinking especially of the 1952 paris colloquium on decision under uncertainty allais 1979 pp 446 7 at which allais confronted defenders of expected utility de finetti friedman marschak samuelson savage with his insistence on riskless measurement of the utility of wealth and violations of independence axioms the colloquium appears to have ended in a standoff but enabled each side to sharpen its own position

technical and allocative efficiency of irrigation water use in the guanzhong plain china due to increasing water scarcity accelerating industrialization and urbanization efficiency of irrigation water use in northern china needs urgent improvement based on a sample of 347 wheat growers in the guanzhong plain this paper simultaneously estimates a production function and its corresponding first order conditions for cost minimization to analyze efficiency of irrigation water use the main findings are that average technical allocative and overall economic efficiency are 0 35 0 86 and 0 80 respectively in a second stage analysis we find that farmers perception of water scarcity water price and irrigation infrastructure increase irrigation water allocative efficiency while land fragmentation decreases it we also show that farmers income loss due to higher water prices can be offset by increasing irrigation water use efficiency

dutch books and conditional probability an oddsmaker who does not update odds in accordance with conditional probability can be subjected to a sure loss such a losing situation is called a dutch book this is often presented as an argument for setting odds in accordance with conditional probability the authors point out that if the strategic aspects of oddsmaking are taken into account choice of odds is a strategic choice in games against bettors then it is possible that in the equilibrium of the game posted odds need not be updated correctly this calls into question the role of such arguments in the foundations of decision theory copyright 1994 by royal economic society

risk taking for oneself and others a structural model approach economic theory makes no predictions about social factors affecting decisions under risk we examine situations in which a decision maker decides for herself and another person under conditions of payoff equality and compare them to individual decisions by estimating a structural model we find that responsibility leaves utility curvature unaffected but accentuates the subjective distortion of very small and very large probabilities for both gains and losses we also find that responsibility reduces loss aversion but that these results only obtain under some specific definitions of the latter these results serve to generalize and reconcile some of the still largely contradictory findings in the literature they also have implications for financial agency which we discuss

the nash bargaining solution for decision weight utility functions abstract a simple derivation of the non expected utility nash outcome as defined in rubinstein et al 1992 rubinstein a safra z thomson w 1992 on the interpretation of the nash bargaining solution and its extension to non expected utility preferences econometrica 60 1171 1186 is given for the class of decision weight utility functions conditions for existence and uniqueness are provided

household portfolio diversification a case for rank dependent preferences the proliferation of novel preference theories in financial economics is hampered by a lack of non experimental evidence and by the theories additional complexity which has not been shown to be critical in applications in this article i present arguments in support of preferences with rank dependency using the survey of consumer finances data i document two widespread patterns inconsistent with expected utility i many households simultaneously invest in well deversified funds and in poorly diversified portfolios of stocks and ii some households with substantial savings do not invest anything in equities i show that portfolio choice models with rank dependent preferences plausibly parameterized and under fully rational assumptions are quantitatively consistent with the observed diversification these results call for further efforts to integrate the models of rank dependent preferences in portfolio theory and asset pricing the decision theoretic literature has long acknowledged the shortcomings of the expected utility theory of von neumann and morgenstern 1944 several generalizations of the theory are inspired by the experimental evidence and aimed at improving its descriptive accuracy however there are few applications of new models of preferences in finance and expected utility continues to dominate the field 1 two principal hurdles slow the proliferation of novel preferences in financial economics first the lack of empirical non experimental or field data confirming that the behavior motivating non expected utilities is widespread outside the laboratory settings second the additional and often significant complexity of the alternative preferences which has not been shown to be critical in applications where the models based on expected utility fall short of reasonable predictions this article presents empirical and theoretical this paper was previously circulated under the title household portfolio diversification the paper has benefited from the comments of shlomo benartzi luca benzoni markus brunnermeier john dickhaut maria perozek raj singh hersh shefrin and workshop participants at minnesota finance bag lunch 2003 wharton conference household financial decision making and portfolio choice and 2003 summer meetings of econometric society i would like to thank cam harvey the editor and an anonymous referee for many helpful comments and suggestions a special thanks to jack kareken for comments and editorial help on an earlier draft i am grateful to donna zerwitz for editorial assistance the views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis or the federal reserve system all errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the author address correspondence to valery polkovnichenko finance 3 122 csom 319 19 th

party differences in macroeconomic policies and outcomes although the nature of the differences between parties in democratic electoral politics is an enduring question in political science surprisingly little is understood about the subject but substantial progress has been made in recent years most notably in understanding party differences in macroeconomic policies and outcomes the first breakthrough was douglas hibbs s 1977 analysis of party related differences in the unemployment rate in his time series analysis for the united states hibbs modeled the path of unemployment as an autoregressive moving average process subject to a dummy variable intervention term indicating party of the president his analysis indicated that democratic administrations were associated with lower unemployment than republicans by 2 36 points after eight years in office and even larger differences in long run equilibrium a subsequent article by nathaniel beck 1982 addressed the same issue and found the party differences less sharp when administration specific policy differences are considered the techniques employed by hibbs and beck focus directly on an outcome unemployment rather than on the policy instruments that are presumably responsible for altering outcomes this approach can be misleading when there are long lags between implementation of policies and ultimate effects or when shocks occasionally intrude upon the regular connections between instruments and outcomes macroeconomic theories can provide information about constraints linking macroeconomic variables but hibbs and beck fail to incorporate theoretical constraints such constraints could help determine what kinds of outcomes are feasible and sustainable and to what extent outcomes are induced by policies as opposed to shocks our purpose here is to consider how one might go about estimating party differences in a framework that takes advantage of some insights offered by macroeconomic theories and to report some preliminary results a more complete description of the analysis is provided in our working paper available upon request

can consumers willingness to pay incentivize adoption of environmental impact reducing technologies in meat animal production abstract this study develops a model estimating consumer willingness to pay wtp for environmental meat attributes and uses a multi objective nutritional optimizer to explore the extent to which wtp can offset on farm costs of reducing water use data for the wtp model are sourced from a literature survey of the agricola and google scholar databases yielding 46 studies estimating wtp for pure and impure organic grass fed natural environmental meat attributes bayesian analysis is used to estimate 3 models varying in independent variables models are evaluated by the correlation coefficient r2 root mean squared error of prediction rmspe and posterior model probability the most probable model is then used to estimate a confidence range of wtp for pure environmental beef impure environmental labels result in higher wtp than pure labels non hypothetical wtp for pure environmental labeling for north american consumers ranges from 6 7 to 32 6 a case study is conducted to identify the expected reduction in water use that can be funded from capturing wtp through labeling a multi objective nutritional optimizer is used to identify ideal management of beef cattle to reduce whole system water use in three regions of the united states cost increases from management are varied over the predicted range in wtp and combined with the probability of a consumer purchasing beef at each wtp value to identify the theoretical effect on expected environmental impact reduction a 10 premium is the ideal wtp resulting in water use reductions between 24 4 l and 41 4 l

is german domestic social policy politically controversial this paper investigates empirically the influence of government ideology on social policy using german data examining the funding and the benefits of social security and public healthcare policy my results suggest that policies implemented by governments dominated by left and rightwing parties were similar over the 1951 2007 period leftwing governments however spent more in the 1970s and rightwing governments did so after german reunification in 1990 since policy convergence encourages new parties to enter the political arena and party platforms on social policy matters are likely to undergo further changes in light of demographic change the observed pattern may thus be a transitory phenomenon

consumer value maximizing sweepstakes and contests abstract sweepstakes and contests are some of the most frequently used promotional tools consumers participating in sweepstakes or contests have an opportunity to win prizes through a random draw the authors examine how commonly used sweepstakes formats that vary in the number of winners and the allocation of the total reward money among the winners affect consumer valuations of the promotion given a fixed amount of reward money the authors examine alternative reward formats based on the promotional objectives consumer risk aversion and degree of subadditivity they test the analytical results using an experimental approach

does government ideology matter in monetary policy a panel data analysis for oecd countries this paper examines whether government ideology has influenced monetary policy in oecd countries we use quarterly data in the 1980 1 2005 4 period and exclude emu countries our taylor rule specification focuses on the interactions of a new time variant index of central bank independence with government ideology the results show that leftist governments have somewhat lower short term nominal interest rates than rightwing governments when central bank independence is low in contrast short term nominal interest rates are higher under leftist governments when central bank independence is high the effect is more pronounced when exchange rates are flexible our findings are compatible with the view that leftist governments in an attempt to deflect blame of their traditional constituencies have pushed market oriented policies by delegating monetary policy to conservative central bankers

developments in non expected utility theory the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk this article reviews recent developments in the economic theory of individual decision making under risk since the 1950s it has been known that individual choices violate the standard model of expected utility in predictable ways considerable research effort has now been devoted to the project of developing a superior descriptive model following an overview of non expected utility theories which distinguishes between conventional and non conventional approaches the paper seeks to assess these alternative models in terms of empirical success using laboratory and field data and theoretical usefulness the closing sections reflect on some new directions emerging in this literature

can prospect theory be used to predict an investor s willingness to pay abstract cumulative prospect theory cpt is widely considered to be the most successful descriptive theory for decision making under risk and uncertainty sophisticated methods have been developed to reliably elicit cpt parameters on an individual basis the aim of this paper is to analyze whether such methods are suited to be applied in real world situations particularly in the context of investment counseling for retail investors specifically we examine whether cpt parameters elicited via standardized computer tools are successful in predicting an individual s preference for different structured financial products surprisingly we find only low predictive power of the elicited cpt parameters on the wtp using a second set of experiments we examine possible explanations for the low prediction quality overall we have to conclude that it is too much of a leap to draw conclusions about the attractiveness of complex financial products from cpt parameters elicited via simple lotteries

preference reversal information processing effect or rational non transitive choice preference reversal is often explained as an information processing effect whereby individuals respond differently to valuation problems than to straight choices regret theory offers the alternative explanation that individuals act on consistent but nontransitive preferences regret theory in its most general form is shown to make specific predictions about nontransitive pairwise choices that correspond with the preferences reversal phenomenon some experiments designed to discriminate between these two explanations are reported the main finding is that as regret theory predicts the preference reversal phenomenon can be reproduced in situations in which subjects confront only choice problems copyright 1989 by royal economic society

partisan cycles in congressional elections and the macroeconomy in the postwar united states the president s party has always done worse in the midterm congressional elections than in the previous congressional election republican administrations exhibit below average and democratic administrations above average economic growth in the first half of each term whereas in the latter halves the two see equal growth our rational expectations model is consistent with these two regularities in presidential elections voters choose between two polarized candidates they then use midterm elections to counterbalance the president s policies by strengthening the opposition in congress since presidents of different parties are associated with different policies our model predicts a spurious correlation between the state of the economy and elections our predictions contrast with those of retrospective voting models in which voters reward the incumbent if the economy is doing well before the election our model performs empirically at least as well as and often better than alternative models

choice under uncertainty problems solved and unsolved ffifteen years ago the theory of choice under uncertainty could be considered one of the success stories of economic analysis it rested on solid axiomatic foundations it had seen important breakthroughs in the analytics of risk risk aversion and their applications to economic issues and it stood ready to provide the theoretical underpinnings for the newly emerging information revolution in economics 1 today choice under uncertainty is a field in flux the standard theory is being challenged on several grounds from both within and outside economics the nature of these challenges and of our profession s responses to them is the topic of this paper

partisan political business cycles in the german labour market empirical tests in the light of the lucas critique this paper focuses on alternative specifications ofpartisan political business cycles partisan theory rational partisan theory and hysteresis augmentedrpt it elaborates on analogies of the natural ratehypothesis underlying all specifications and thecointegration concept accordingly problems of thespecification of hypotheses estimation and inferencein a cointegrating framework with politicalinterventions are treated super exogeneity tests areshown to be equivalent to tests of the lucas critiqueand the rpt therefore the concept ofsuper exogeneity is transferred to empirical tests ofpartisan cycles by this a new testing framework ofpartisan cycles is developed and applied to germanlabour market data

portfolio insurance and prospect theory investors popularity and optimal design of capital protected financial products abstract portfolio insurance strategies are used on both the institutional and the retail side of the asset management industry while standard utility theory struggles to provide an explanation this study justifies the popularity of portfolio insurance strategies in a behavioral finance context we run monte carlo simulations as well as historical simulations for popular portfolio insurance strategies and benchmark strategies in order to evaluate the outcomes using cumulative prospect theory our simulation results indicate that most portfolio insurance strategies are the preferred investment strategy for a prospect theory investor moreover the analysis provides insights into how portfolio insurance products should be designed and structured to meet the preferences of prospect theory investors as accurately as possible

central bank behavior a positive empirical analysis abstract the central bank is analyzed as a utility maximizing unit acting in the framework of a politico economic model it derives utility from keeping the price level stable and is constrained by government the structure of the economy and the political commitment to stable exchange rates it uses a satisficing strategy concentrating on keeping conflicts with government below a certain level in the case of serious conflict the central bank follows the policy directions undertaken by government but with a time lag the complete model comprising endogenous consumer voters government and central bank is econometrically tested for germany with good results

trade policy and the effects of climate forecasts on agricultural markets damental to modeling the effects of a climate forecast on agricultural markets is the direct agronomic impacts of climate on commodity production but also important are the endogenous responses of growers traders and others this paper examines market responses to climate information in a simple framework that highlights the most important issues while abstracting from most complications we emphasize how trade policy affects commodity market responses and the value of climate information

agricultural technologies for climate change in developing countries policy options for innovation and technology diffusion climate has obvious direct effects on agricultural production the reverse is more apparent than ever as greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are tallied the development and effective diffusion of new agricultural practices and technologies will largely shape how and how well farmers mitigate and adapt to climate change this adaptation and mitigation potential is nowhere more pronounced than in developing countries where agricultural productivity remains low poverty vulnerability and food insecurity remain high and the direct effects of climate change are expected to be especially harsh creating the necessary agricultural technologies and harnessing them to enable developing countries to adapt their agricultural systems to changing climate will require innovations in policy and institutions as well potential constraints to innovation involve both the private and public sectors in both developing and developed countries the process of transferring agricultural innovations across agroecological and climatic zones is often subject to agronomic constraints often the most binding constraints occur at the adoption stage with several factors that potentially impede poor farmers access to and use of new technologies based on discussions of these constraints we derive six policy principles and use these principles to suggest several specific investments and policy priorities

the political economy of the german lander deficits weak governments meet strong finance ministers we analyse the deficits of the german lander regional states for the period 1960 to 2005 and test a number of hypotheses derived from the literature on the political economy of public deficits we find evidence for the weak government hypothesis that is coalition governments issue significantly more debt than single party governments a result that is typically explained by the common pool problem as our data suggest this result crucially hinges on the position or strength of the finance minister within coalition governments we find that coalition governments with a strong finance minister are in terms of borrowing not significantly different from single party governments in addition we find weak evidence for an opportunistic political business cycle as borrowing is significantly lower in pre election years it appears that german voters favour fiscal discipline there is no evidence for partisan behaviour so party ideology seems to play a negligible role

pricing strategies and mechanism choice in reward based crowdfunding abstract with consideration of the ambiguity and overfunding effects this study develops generalized models to compare the sequential and simultaneous mechanisms in reward based crowdfunding ambiguity effect is a negative psychological perception of customers since they lack the information to infer the product s quality however overfunding effect is a positive psychological perception that enhances customers confidence in the product s quality theoretically we show that the two mechanisms may dominate each other in terms of entrepreneur and the two opposite effects can play significant roles in deciding the optimal crowdfunding mechanism furthermore we propose a simple compensation mechanism to improve entrepreneur s expected payoff and the crowdfunding s success rate under both mechanisms finally we analyse the informational cascade in crowdfunding and show how entrepreneur can use this phenomenon to maximize her expected payoff

why do retired workers claim their social security benefits so early a potential explanation based on the cumulative prospect theory abstractsocial security provides longevity insurance for older americans according to expected utility theory models rational households who are not liquidity constrained should delay claiming th

consistency and heterogeneity of individual behavior under uncertainty by using graphical representations of simple portfolio choice problems we generate a very rich dataset to study behavior under uncertainty at the level of the individual subject we test the data for consistency with the maximization hypothesis and we estimate preferences using a two parameter utility function based on faruk gul 1991 this specification provides a good interpretation of the data at the individual level and can account for the highly heterogeneous behaviors observed in the laboratory the parameter estimates jointly describe attitudes toward risk and allow us to characterize the distribution of risk preferences in the population

do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change rapidly expanding global trade in the past three decades has lifted millions out of people out of poverty trade has also reduced manufacturing wages in high income countries and made entire industries uncompetitive in some communities giving rise to nationalist politics that seek to stop or reverse further trade expansion in the united states and europe given complex and uncertain political support for trade how might changes in trade policy affect the global food system s ability to adapt to climate change here we argue that we can best understand food security in a changing climate as a double exposure the exposure of people and processes to both economic and climate related shocks and stressors trade can help us adapt to climate change or not if trade restrictions proliferate double exposure to both a rapidly changing climate and volatile markets will likely jeopardize the food security of millions a changing climate will present both opportunities and challenges for the global food system and adapting to its many impacts will affect food availability food access food utilization and food security stability for the poorest people across the world global trade can continue to play a central role in assuring that global food system adapts to a changing climate this potential will only be realized however if trade is managed in ways that maximize the benefits of broadened access to new markets while minimizing the risks of increased exposure to international competition and market volatility for regions like africa for example enhanced transportation networks combined with greater national reserves of cash and enhanced social safety nets could reduce the impact of double exposure on food security

is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change a micro econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in african agriculture abstract this paper examines whether an integrated farm that owns both crops and livestock is more resilient under global warming than a specialized farm in crops using around 9000 farm surveys across africa we explore how farmers choose one of the farm types and how the net revenue of each type varies across the range of climate in africa the results indicate that an integrated farm increases in number while a specialized farm decreases across africa under climate predictions for 2060 the relative profitability of each system against each other also changes an integrated farm becomes relatively more profitable over specialized farms half a century from now the impacts of climate change on integrated farms range from 9 loss to 27 gain depending on climate scenarios behavioral models can capture portfolio diversification benefits that agro economic models cannot measure

do prediction markets produce well calibrated probability forecasts this article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets we develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a favourite longshot bias that is high likelihood events are underpriced and low likelihood events are over priced we confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future when time value of money is considered the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate

explaining the energy efficiency gap expected utility theory versus cumulative prospect theory abstract energy efficiency is one of the key factors in mitigating the impact of climate change and preserving non renewable resources although environmental and economic justifications for energy efficiency investments are compelling there is a gap between the observable and some notion of optimized energy consumption the so called energy efficiency gap behavioral biases in individual decision making have been resonated by environmental research to explain this gap to analyze the influence of behavioral biases on decisions upon energy efficiency investments quantitatively we compare expected utility theory with cumulative prospect theory on basis of a real world example we illustrate how the extent of the gap is influenced by behavioral biases such as loss aversion probability weighting and framing our findings indicate that cumulative prospect theory offers possible explanations for many barriers discussed in literature for example the size of the gap rises with increased risk and investment costs because behavioral biases are systematic and pervasive our insights constitute a valuable quantitative basis for environmental policy measures such as customer focused and quantitatively backed public awareness campaigns financial incentives or energy savings insurances in this vein this paper may contribute to an accelerated adaption of energy efficiency measures by the broader public