price flexibility in developing countries evidence and implications using data for a sample of 50 developing countries the empirical investigation evaluates determinants and implications of asymmetric price flexibility price inflation is characterized by high flexibility to adjust towards full equilibrium further price inflation accelerates flexibly with unanticipated demand growth in both the upward and downward directions in most of the countries under investigation asymmetry indicates higher upward flexibility compared to downward flexibility in many countries aggregate uncertainty determines the degree of asymmetry such that price flexibility is higher with respect to expansionary demand shocks compared to contractionary shocks the higher the variability of aggregate demand across countries in contrast higher trend price inflation increases downward price flexibility across countries output variability decreases with both upward and downward price flexibility in the face of aggregate demand shocks a the views expressed in this article are those of the a

nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

theoretical approaches to monetary disinflation abstract during the 1980s many countries adopted tight monetary policies to reduce high inflation rates which were the legacy of the 1970s as inflation threatens to rise at the beginning of this decade this paper provides a survey of the 1980s literature which sought to provide theoretical understandings of how monetary disinflation is achieved four models are presented monetarist neo keynesian new classical and post keynesian each model s explanation of the recession which accompanies the monetary disinflation is outlined as well as possible policy measures to reduce the extent of the recession and to hasten the return to full employment

nominal and real wage cyclicality during the interwar period although there have been numerous attempts to study the cyclicality of real wages in the u s no consensus has formed as to the implications of the various findings for business cycle theory this paper will demonstrate that separating the real wage into its nominal and price level components can shed new light on the interwar u s labor market more specifically we will show that an evolution from a relatively laissez faire labor market during the 1920s to a more highly regulated labor market during the 1930s may have resulted in a more countercyclical real wage rate if we could be certain that equilibrium business cycle models provided the correct specification of the labor market then interpretation of real wage cyclicality would be relatively straightforward during periods dominated by labor demand shocks real wages would move procyclically and during periods dominated by labor supply shocks real wages would move countercyclically in a disequilibrium model context however interpretation of real wage cyclicality is much more problematic if nominal wages are sticky then unanticipated price level changes can induce countercyclical real wage movements that mimic the real wage movements generated by shifts in the supply of labor perhaps the most famous and controversial example occurred during the first three years of the great depression when a massive decline in hours worked and production was associated with a sharp increase in the aggregate real wage rate see figure 1 even greater complexity results from governmental attempts to influence the aggregate nominal wage policies that attempt to artificially change the nominal wage rate can result in either procyclical or countercyclical real wages depending on whether the direct impact of changes in the price of labor on the quantity of labor demanded outweighs the impact of wage changes on aggregate demand and output separating the aggregate real wage rate into its nominal and price level components will allow us to discriminate between these two hypotheses if labor markets are correctly characterized by equilibrium models then the price level and real wage are determined independently and separating the real wage into its nominal and price

evaluating unemployment policies what do the underlying theories tell us the paper surveys unemployment policies for advanced market economies and evaluates them by examining the predictions of the underlying macroeconomic theories the basic idea is that for the most part different unemployment policy prescriptions rest on different macroeconomic theories and our confidence in the prescriptions should depend at least in part on theories ability to predict some salient stylized facts about unemployment behavior the paper considers four types of policies laissez faire demand management policies supply side policies and structural policies copyright 1995 by oxford university press

is increased price inflexibility stabilizing this paper examines a basic question the link between the degree of price flexibility and the variability of output the two standard intermediate macroeconomic textbook models are the classical and the keynesian model in the keynesian model prices are assumed to be perfectly rigid and output adjusts on the other hand in the classical model prices are completely flexible and output is perfectly stable the two models suggest that as prices become more flexible output should become less variable now since mundell 1963 pointed it out it has been well known that the price level and the expected rate of change of the price level that is the expected inflation rate exert opposing forces on the level of output in a static keynesian model since inflation is an essentially dynamic phenomenon the static mundell effect prompts a natural consideration of the link between the degree of price flexibility and the variability of output in a dynamic context tobin 1975 presents a formal model where lower prices work to move the economy toward full employment but an expectation of falling prices raises the real interest rate and moves the economy away from full employment recently delong and summers 1986a 1986b driskill and sheffrin 1986 and king 1988 have rejuvenated interest in the question of whether increased price flexibility inflexibility will stabilize or destabilize output while driskill

economic status and health in childhood the origins of the gradient the well known positive association between health and income in adulthood has antecedents in childhood not only is children s health positively related to household income but the relationship between household income and children s health becomes more pronounced as children age part of the relationship can be explained by the arrival and impact of chronic conditions children from lower income households with chronic conditions have worse health than do those from higher income households the adverse health effects of lower income accumulate over children s lives part of the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status may work through the impact of parents income on children s health

selection and monetary non neutrality in time dependent pricing models for a given frequency of price adjustment monetary non neutrality is smaller if older prices are disproportionately more likely to change selection for the age of prices provides a complete characterization of price setting frictions in time dependent models selection for older prices is weaker and non neutralities are larger if the hazard function of price adjustment is less strongly increasing selection is weaker if there is heterogeneity in price stickiness finally selection is weaker if durations of price spells are more variable in particular the taylor 1979 model exhibits maximal selection for older prices whereas the calvo 1983 model exhibits no selection

is price flexibility destabilizing sluggish wages and prices are generally the culprits in keynesian models of unemployment and business fluctuations price flexibility in standard fix price models would restore the economy to full employment this line of reasoning has often been at the heart of proposals to reform institutions in order to restore flexibility to wages and prices there is however a strand of macroeconomic thought that questions the wisdom of too much price flexibility john maynard keynes raised the issue in chapter 19 of the general theory by noting that a deflation could raise real interest rates and thereby impede a return to full employment in his 1975 paper keynesian models of recession and depression james tobin develops this point in a formal model low prices work to move the economy to full employment but falling prices to the extent that they lead to expectations of deflation raise the real interest rate through the mundell effect and move the economy away from full employment instability is likely to occur if expectations of inflation adjust rapidly to actual inflation and the real interest rate effect is large our historical experience does include significant episodes where either reductions in inflation or actual deflation were accompanied by high real interest rates although other factors could be responsible the experiences of the great depression the latin american countries in the late 1970 s and the united states in the early 1980 s all add surface plausibility to the real interest rate deflation link and thus to one aspect of the keynes tobin story recently bradford de long and lawrence summers 1984 have argued that the decrease in the variance of output following world war ii can be largely attributable to the decrease in wage and price flexibility in the postwar era the reason output fluctuations are smaller today is precisely because the keynes tobin destabilizing mechanism is less operative today this paper examines whether increased price flexibility can be destabilizing in a version of john taylor s contract model 1979 1980 extended to include real interest rate effects taylor s model includes both backward and forward elements in wage setting behavior and thus permits some rationality in the wage setting process we find that even with this limited degree of rationality increased wage flexibility leads to a decrease in both the variance of output and the variance of prices nicholas carlozzi and taylor 1983 introduce the real rate of interest into a staggered contract framework and discuss in general terms and through simulations the effects that changing real rates may have on the system they do not however study the effects of potential instability through increases in wage flexibility or provide any analytical results they provide an extensive discussion of the implications of alternative policy rules on the stochastic behavior of the economy we first add the real interest rate to the standard taylor model and derive the solution and prove key analytical results these results are further buttressed by simulations

education and family health care spending michael grossman s seminal work on the demand for health extended the concept of a household production function to the commodity good health in this framework education represents an environmental variable that enhances the monetary returns to investments in health through the use of time and medical care in health production using data from the 2004 to 2012 medical expenditure panel survey meps we examine the association between parental education and family health care spending in single mother and two parent families we estimate one and two part expenditure models for total family health care spending for specific components of such spending and also examine the impact of parental education on selected measures of family health controlling for family income and health insurance status we find consistent evidence that parental education beyond 12 years of schooling is associated with increases in family health care spending and with reductions in the likelihood of adverse health conditions

the taxation of domestic and foreign banking abstract using bank level data for 80 countries in the 1988 1995 period this paper examines taxation of domestic and foreign owned banks the profitability of foreign banks is found to rise relatively little with their domestic tax burden perhaps reflecting the availability of foreign tax credits and profit shifting opportunities the paper also examines whether domestic and foreign banks pay different amounts of domestic tax taxes paid by foreign banks are shown to rise relatively little with the local statutory tax this evidence supports the hypothesis that foreign banks engage in relatively extensive profit shifting

is price flexibility destabilizing abstract increased price flexibility causes temporary output deviations to be eliminated more quickly but it also makes the effects of inflationary expectations on aggregate demand larger so it can lead to increased output variability this trade off is assessed for an open economy and only limited support is found for keynes concern that increased price flexibility is destabilizing the dependence of this issue on exchange rate policy and on alternative specifications for sticky prices is emphasized

inertial inflation indexation and price stickiness evidence from brazil abstract this paper evaluates the inertial inflation hypothesis for brazil the hypothesis posits that indexation created a feedback mechanism such that one time supply shocks were fully transmitted into permanent changes in inflation a theoretical model is used to show that this outcome is based on the assumption of perfect price flexibility however with price stickiness indexation does not produce inertial inflation the degree of inertia is then compared for two periods one without indexation 1945 1963 and one with indexation 1969 1985 finally vector autoregressive representations are estimated for the latter period allowing for price stickiness the empirical results do not support the hypothesis

services inflation dynamics and persistence puzzle in brazil a time varying parameter approach this article analyses services inflation dynamics in brazil focusing on the services inflation persistence puzzle for monthly data from january 2004 to february 2016 we apply a time varying para

monetary targets real exchange rates and macroeconomic stability abstract in this paper i develop a model to determine the optimal degree of flexibility in attaining monetary targets in an economy that is affected by shocks in the labor and financial markets i then simulate the model to assess the optimal degree of monetary policy flexibility in spain a country that has adopted monetary targets rigidly since 1978 i show that the model supports the policy choice of that country i also show that the monetary authorities should attribute more importance to real exchange rate movements in choosing their policies if the spanish economy becomes more open to international trade or if the labor market becomes more flexible

the demand for health and health concerns after 30 years michael grossman s seminal model stressed that health production requires both goods and time yet recent empirical health research focuses primarily on personal medical care to the exclusion of other inputs to health future research should place greater emphasis on the roles of non medical consumption goods population level inputs and time in producing health capital improved information technology will allow researchers to dissect how education promotes efficiency in combining goods and time to produce health economic analyses of child health which is the antecedent of adult health must proceed in tandem with medical advances in understanding health development in childhood

price flexibility and aggregate stability new evidence and implications i introduction is increased price flexibility stabilizing the importance of this question can be easily established by observing the number of recently published papers in which this question or a slight modification of it has appeared in their titles 1 while most economists would answer this question affirmatively a strand of macroeconomic thought that questions the wisdom of too much price flexibility has recently regained some attention 2 in the most widely discussed of this recent literature delong and summers 1986b question the wisdom of too much price flexibility their work was motivated by some of the ideas expressed by keynes 1936 and formally articulated by james tobin 1975 low prices work to move the economy to full employment but falling prices to the extent that they lead to expectations of deflation raise the real interest rate through the mundell effect and move the economy away from full employment in a version of taylor s 1979 wage setting model delong and summers show that instability is likely to occur if expectations of inflation adjust rapidly to actual inflation and the real interest rate effect is large this view presents a direct challenge to mainstream keynesian models of business cycles 3 according to these models sluggish wages and prices are generally the culprits of unemployment and business fluctuations an exogenous institutional increase in the degree of price inflexibility increases the size of quantities adjustment in response to aggregate demand shocks in the current period and over time the assumption of exogeneity is consistent with the view that wage and price rigidity are the result of an institutional structure that is relatively unresponsive to changes in the underlying economic conditions in gray and kandil 1991 we find this view unappealing considering recent efforts to rationalize nominal rigidities as the outcome of explicit optimization exercises 4 it is for this reason that we examine the relationship between price flexibility and output variability in a framework in which both are endogenously determined in the model we develop price rigidity is attributed to the length of contractual wage agreements an increase in contract length will occur if the costs of negotiating contracts rise or the amount of uncertainty impinging on the economy declines in the first case declines in wage and price flexibility will be accompanied by decreased stability of output in the latter case the opposite will occur the reduction in the size of stochastic disturbances impinging on the economic system has a direct stabilizing impact on real output concurrently the reduction in the degree of uncertainty increases agents incentives to write longer contracts the increased rigidity is destabilizing this destabilizing impact is dominated however by the direct stabilizing impact the implications of the alternative views can be contrasted in many respects in kandil 1991b i test the relation between measures of wage and price flexibility and the size of macroeconomic fluctuations across a group of ten major industrial countries the analysis of this paper extends this research in several directions first the analysis provides a formal illustration of the channels through which price flexibility may differentiate the real effects of specific shocks underlying aggregate demand and in turn aggregate variability the framework approximates the key relationships for the theoretical debate under consideration these relationships are replicated empirically to establish the validity of the hypotheses that differentiate the alternative views second the analysis provides a more formal attempt towards quantifying the structural shocks underlying aggregate demand these shocks are the driving forces of economic instability and in turn they are crucial to the debate on the stabilizing effects of price flexibility

the impact of taxation on bank profits evidence from eu banks abstract using bank level data for the period 1990 2005 we investigate to what extent european banks are able to shift their tax burden forward we examine the effects of corporate income tax cit and value added tax vat on pre tax profits and their components and find that both are shifted forward the pass through mainly involves total operating income but as far as cit is concerned it also affects loss provisions with negative implications on stability of the banking systems

optimal taxation of capital income in general equilibrium with infinite lives this paper analyzes the optimal tax on capital income in general equilibrium models of the second best agents have infinite lives and utility functions which are extensions from the koopmans form the population is heterogeneous the important property of the models is the equality between the social and the private discount rates in the long run i find that the optimal tax rate is zero in the long run for a special case of additively separable utility functions i then determine the tax rates along the dynamic path and conditions that are sufficient for the local stability of the steady state

is increased price flexibility stabilizing this paper uses john taylor s model of overlapping contracts to show that increased wage and price flexibility can easily be destabilizing because of the mundell effect while lower prices increase output the expectation of falling prices decreases output simulations based on realistic parameter values suggest that increases in price flexibility might well increase the cyclical variability of output in the united states copyright 1986 by american economic association

price flexibility and aggregate stability some evidence contrasting developing and developed countries this paper explores the empirical validity of theoretical channels through which price flexibility may have caused differences in the stability of output in developing and developed countries the relation between these two variables suggests several principles where the size of stochastic disturbances that impinge on the economic system does not play an important role in determining the degree of price flexibility the increased flexibility is clearly stabilizing developing countries generally are characterized by larger stochastic disturbances and a higher flexibility of the price level than developed countries the larger variability of disturbances is indeed destabilizing further this destabilizing effect has domi nated the stabilizing effect that is associated with the increased flexibility of the price level in developing countries and this results in a clear positive correlation between price flexibility and output variability

the phillips curve the persistence of inflation and the lucas critique evidence from exchange rate regimes comment we present evidence from the united states and the united kingdom that the persistence of price inflation is significantly higher under managed exchange rate regimes than under gold based fixed exchange rate regimes these differences are also reflected in expectations augmented phillips curves we use a two country macro model with forward looking price setters to demonstrate that higher monetary accommodation of inflation and exchange rate accommodation of inflation differentials increase inflation persistence the evidence does not contradict this hypothesis it supports the hypothesis of forward looking price setters and highlights the empirical significance of the lucas critique jel e31 e42 f33