the relative importance of social and institutional conditions in the planning of wind power projects abstract governments around the world try to stimulate the development and use of renewable energy technologies like wind energy while wind turbines are increasingly being implemented however a lack of social acceptance at the local level remains an important challenge for developers of wind power plants this article aims to explore the relative importance of social and institutional conditions and their interdependencies in the operational process of planning wind power schemes the article not only focuses on how negative local social conditions can frustrate public policy cf nimby syndrome but also on how positive local social conditions can compensate for a negative public policy framework we analyzed the cases of implementing wind power of two actors the regional energy distributor and small private investors in the municipality of zeewolde the netherlands both cases illustrate that the formal institutional framework formal rules procedures and instruments is neutral in a certain sense social conditions management styles interests and informal contacts put meaning in this framework the way stakeholders deal with the prevailing institutional structure clarifies social acceptance and therewith implementation

robust stochastic discount factors when the market is incomplete a new non redundant derivative security cannot be priced by no arbitrage arguments alone moreover there will be a multiplicity of stochastic discount factors and each of them may give a different price for the new derivative security this paper develops an approach to the selection of a stochastic discount factor for pricing a new derivative security the approach is based on the idea that the price of a derivative security should not vary too much when the payoff of the primitive security is slightly perturbed i e the price of the derivative should be robust to model misspecification the paper develops two metrics of robustness the first is based on robustness in expectation the second is based on robustness in probability and draws on tools from the theory of large deviations we show that in a stochastic volatility model the two metrics yield analytically tractable bounds for the derivative price as the underlying stochastic volatility model is perturbed the bounds can be readily used for numerical examination of the sensitivity of the price of the derivative to model misspecification

european schemes for promoting renewables in liberalised markets abstract the paper describes possibilities and problems for penetration of supply systems based on renewable energy sources in liberalised markets the analysis is based on recent development in eu with different models for support of installations based on renewable energy these include feed in models with guaranteed minimum tariffs tender models for different bands of technologies and green certificates trading models with obligatory consumer quota the paper describes the market situation in selected european countries including germany the uk holland and denmark an eu directive from september 2001 has postponed the decision on a possible harmonisation of promotional models until at least 2005 in order to obtain more practical experience with the different support schemes a critical evaluation is given in this paper of the different models with proposals for a balanced development between environmental and trading concerns it is argued that too much emphasis is presently given to the side of free trade at the expense of long range planning for a sustainable energy development

planning of renewables schemes deliberative and fair decision making on landscape issues instead of reproachful accusations of non cooperation abstract the main issues related to successful implementation policies concern the socio economic institutions that are conditional to planning in the energy policy domain but also in the domain of spatial planning successful investments and the siting of renewable power plants eventually determine the success rate of national efforts in establishing renewable capacity central planning usually has several objectives and these often have a detrimental effect on the goal of renewable energy application current problems related to implementation decisions concerning wind power schemes are an example to those who will be faced by other renewable power plants notably biomass regarding community acceptance of wind power schemes the visual evaluation of the impact of wind power on the values of the landscape is by far the most dominant factor in explaining opposition or support type of landscape fully overshadows other attitudinal attributes as well as other visual and scenic factors such as the design of wind turbines and wind farms and the number and the size of turbines planning regimes and decision making practices that really enhance the implementation processes of renewable energy require strong ecological modernization this means institutional changes that create involvement and trust of actors at the actual implementation level local opposition cannot be explained by the egotistical motives of local residents when the inclination to behave according to supposed backyard motives is investigated the scale to measure this phenomenon appears to indicate commitment to equity issues and fairness of decision making hence for wind power local involvement to represent the local values of site specific landscapes is crucial for other renewables the source specific features are different but conflicts can be expected as well because the fairness of implementation decisions will be equally significant

wind power development in sweden global policies and local obstacles abstract recently the swedish government adopted a national planning goal of a yearly wind power generation of 10 twh by 2015 implying a substantial increase from the current 0 6 twh level in this paper we provide an economic assessment of the potential for future wind power investments in sweden in close conjunction with an analysis of the legal attitudinal and policy related uncertainties that face a wind mill investor it is shown that the economics of swedish wind power is negatively affected by a the lack of policy stability b public criticism at the local level and in particular c the legal provisions governing the assessment of the environmental impacts of wind mills and the planning procedures for mill location while national and global energy policies as well as the general public point out wind power as particularly environmentally friendly most of the objections to its expansion at the local level tend to have environmental origins the interests of those who object to wind mill installations gain strong legal protection and the municipal territorial planning monopoly in sweden implies that it is hard to make national energy policy goals heard at the local implementation stage compared to its competitors wind power is the technology that tends to have the most to loose from the risk and uncertainties created by this investment environment the paper identifies and discusses a number of ways in which the national policy interests could be strengthened at the local level we discuss the role of citizen participation as well as solutions within the realms of the legal system moreover since the diffusion of wind power encounters the most strident legal and attitudinal obstacles where it interferes with competing land uses a move offshore appears to be an efficient strategy from the perspective of a wind mill investor a stronger political commitment to wind power expansion in legal provisions as well as in the form of long run stability in policy instrument implementation will probably be necessary to attain the 2015 policy goal

general equilibrium pricing of cpi derivatives we examine the issue of pricing forward futures and option contracts written on the consumer price index cpi the change of which is a measure of inflation affecting the economy traditional approaches postulate an exogenous process for the price level and then derive cpi derivatives prices by standard arbitrage arguments by contrast we build the general equilibrium of a continuous time monetary economy that is affected by both real and nominal shocks the price level and thus the inflation rate are found endogenously and solutions for the prices of cpi derivatives are obtained which are in closed form in a specialized version of the economy

tracing the impacts of a northern open economy on the global environment the globalization of the world economy has increased resource flows around the planet raising pressures on the environment historically northern industrialized economies have been responsible for the majority of resource consumption while developing countries have suffered the associated social and environmental impacts this article analyzes the extra territorial responsibility of the basque economy europe to illustrate the responsibility of northern open economies towards the global environment to do this we i analyze the material and energy flows of the basque economy their source and impacts on other regions of the world ii study the impact of the economic and investment activities of basque companies abroad and iii examine together with other paradigmatic examples three case studies from latin america east africa and southeast asia that represent the liabilities of northern economies in the global south this approach allows us to connect production and consumption processes in affluent countries with associated socio ecological impacts in the extraction frontiers in order to better understand and potentially transform current economic patterns and their consequences in addition the study indicates how to bridge the gap between local and global scales creating a useful approach to raising social awareness and informing public policies in resource intensive societies

on arbitrage free pricing of interest rate contingent claims unlike most interest rate claim models the ho lee model utilizes full information on the current term structure unfortunately the model has a major deficiency in that negative interest rates can occur this article modifies the model such that interest rates are well behaved

a dynamic programming approach for pricing options embedded in bonds abstract we propose a dynamic programming dp approach for pricing options embedded in bonds the focus being on call and put options with advance notice an efficient procedure is developed for the cases where the interest rate process follows the vasicek cox ingersoll ross cir or generalized vasicek models our dp methodology uses the exact joint distribution of the interest rate and integrated interest rate at a future date conditional on the current value of the interest rate we provide numerical illustrations for the vasicek and cir models comparing our dp method with finite difference methods our procedure compares quite favorably in terms of both efficiency and accuracy an important advantage of the our dp approach is that it can be applied to more general models calibrated to capture the term structure of interest rates e g the generalized vasicek model

valuing managerial flexibility an application of real option theory to mining investments abstract the value of managerial flexibility is assessed using data on prices costs grades reserves ore extraction and metal output for a panel of canadian copper mines a real option model is estimated and solved for project and option values most empirical researchers i consider the initial investment decision but neglect flexible operation thereafter ii assume that price is stochastic but ignore cost and reserve uncertainty and iii model price as a nonstationary stochastic process the evolution of three state variables price cost and reserves is assessed here differences in assumptions compared to others are found to lead to large differences in estimated project and option values

footprints in the cotton fields the industrial revolution as time space appropriation and environmental load displacement this paper offers a method for quantifying the global exchange of natural space and labor time underlying the economic success of the british textile industry in the late 18th and early 19th century using historical statistics on inputs of land and labor embodied in cotton and wool production respectively estimates are made of the amount of british land and labor that were saved by displacing fibre production to north america by comparing inputs of land and labor in the textile exports of england with those in some commodities imported from its colonial periphery and juxtaposing these data with exchange rates estimates are also made of unequal exchange using such methods it is possible to bring together the marxist concern with unequal exchanges of labor time on one hand with the more recent concern with ecological footprints on the other

the pension costs from a defined benefit to individual pension accounts do they cost more in the case of taiwan this article develops a market based liability valuation model to price individual pension costs of a defined benefit db pension plan the purpose is to compare them with the new labour pension plan individual pension accounts ipas in the case of taiwan the results based on the numerical approach show that the new ipas cost a company more than the old db plan except if the average wage growth relative to the risk free interest rate is high enough

roughing it up including jump components in the measurement modeling and forecasting of return volatility a rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in financial return volatility measurement and forecasting via use of realized variation measures constructed from high frequency returns coupled with simple modeling procedures building on recent theoretical results in barndorff nielsen and shephard 2004a 2005 for related bi power variation measures the present paper provides a practical and robust framework for non parametrically measuring the jump component in asset return volatility in an application to the dm exchange rate the s p500 market index and the 30 year u s treasury bond yield we find that jumps are both highly prevalent and distinctly less persistent than the continuous sample path variation process moreover many jumps appear directly associated with specific macroeconomic news announcements separating jump from non jump movements in a simple but sophisticated volatility forecasting model we find that almost all of the predictability in daily weekly and monthly return volatilities comes from the non jump component our results thus set the stage for a number of interesting future econometric developments and important financial applications by separately modeling forecasting and pricing the continuous and jump components of the total return variation process

green electricity market development lessons from europe and the us this study compares the development and implementation of green electricity policies in germany the netherlands sweden and the united states a set of countries applying a range of policy instruments to encourage electricity from renewable energy sources a general tendency is identified that policies shift emphasis from r d stimulation towards dissemination and market application of renewable energy technologies we argue that in light of the long term nature of policy goals on energy security mitigation of climate change and environmental protection the applied range of policy instruments may be lacking in providing incentives for the long term development of new technologies clarifying policy objectives would allow careful selection of policy instruments including support for r d improved capacity building for policy implementation is also important

semi parametric comparison of stochastic volatility models using realized measures this paper proposes a procedure to test for the correct specification of the functional form of the volatility process within the class of eigenfunction stochastic volatility models the procedure is based on the comparison of the moments of realized volatility measures with the corresponding ones of integrated volatility implied by the model under the null hypothesis we first provide primitive conditions on the measu rement error associated with the realized measure which allow to construct asymptotically valid specification tests then we establish regularity conditions under which the considered realized measures namely realized volatility bipower variation and modified subsampled realized volatility satisfy the given primitive assumptions finally we provide an empirical illustration based on thr ee stocks from the dow jones industrial average 2006 the review of economic studies limited

the effect of transaction size on off the run treasury prices this paper examines intra day trading data from the inter dealer broker market for u s treasury securities and measures the degree of price pressure in the off the run treasury market as is well known securities that would appear to be very close substitutes i e on the run and off the run treasury bonds behave as if there is some degree of market segmentation this is the first systematic study of the off the run treasury note and bond market focused entirely on a price pressure effect using intra day data the paper analyzes price pressure through matched pairs of securities that differ only in liquidity

the valuation of multiple claim insurance contracts this paper provides a closed form solution for the value of a multiple claim insurance contract that is subject to a deductible amount and or an upper limit on claims the solution is a time integral of european option prices the model provides three important insights first systematic risk in insurance policies is altered in the presence of deductibles and maximum indemnity levels second idiosyncratic risk affects policy valuation and the required rates of return on underwriting portfolios finally contrary to traditional actuarial intuition changes in the risk free interest rate may either increase or reduce policy values

continuous time methods in finance a review and an assessment i survey and assess the development of continuous time methods in finance during the last 30 years the subperiod 1969 to 1980 saw a dizzying pace of development with seminal ideas in derivatives securities pricing term structure theory asset pricing and optimal consumption and portfolio choices during the period 1981 to 1999 the theory has been extended and modified to better explain empirical regularities in various subfields of finance this latter subperiod has seen significant progress in econometric theory computational and estimation methods to test and implement continuous time models capital market frictions and bargaining issues are being increasingly incorporated in continuous time theory the roots of modern continuous time methods in finance can be traced back to the seminal contributions of merton 1969 1971 1973b in the late 1960s and early 1970s merton 1969 pioneered the use of continuous time modeling in financial economics by formulating the intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an investor in a stochastic dynamic programming setting merton 1973b also showed how such a framework can be used to develop equilibrium asset pricing implications thereby significantly extending the asset pricing theory to richer dynamic settings and expanding the scope of applications of continuous time methods to study problems in financial economics 1 within a span of about 30 years from the publication of merton s inf luential papers continuous time methods have become an integral part of financial economics indeed in certain core areas in finance such as e g asset pricing derivatives valuation term structure theory and portfolio selection continuoustime methods have proved to be the most attractive way to conduct research and gain economic intuition the continuous time approach in these areas has produced models with a rich variety of testable implications the econometric theory for testing continuous time models has made rapid strides in the last decade and has thus kept pace with the impressive progress on the theoretical front one hopes that the actual empirical investigations and estimation using the new procedures will follow suit soon

an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices this paper develops a continuous time general equilibrium model of a simple but complete economy and uses it to examine the behavior of asset prices in this model asset prices and their stochastic properties are determined endogenously one principal result is a partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy the solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in the economy in this paper we develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model for use in applied research an important feature of the model is its integration of real and financial markets among other things the model endogenously determines the stochastic process followed by the equilibrium price of any financial asset and shows how this process depends on the underlying real variables the model is fully consistent with rational expectations and maximizing behavior on the part of all agents our framework is general enough to include many of the fundamental forces affecting asset markets yet it is tractable enough to be specialized easily to produce specific testable results furthermore the model can be extended in a number of straightforward ways consequently it is well suited to a wide variety of applications for example in a companion paper cox ingersoll and ross 7 we use the model to develop a theory of the term structure of interest rates many studies have been concerned with various aspects of asset pricing under uncertainty the most relevant to our work are the important papers on intertemporal asset pricing by merton 19 and lucas 16 working in a continuous time framework merton derives a relationship among the equilibrium expected rates of return on assets he shows that when investment opportunities are changing randomly over time this relationship will include effects which have no analogue in a static one period model lucas considers an economy with homogeneous individuals and a single consumption good which is produced by a number of processes the random output of these processes is exogenously determined and perishable assets are defined as claims to all or a part of the output of a process and the equilibrium determines the asset prices our theory draws on some elements of both of these papers like merton we formulate our model in continuous time and make full use of the analytical tractability that this affords the economic structure of our model is somewhat similar to that of lucas however we include both endogenous production and

a continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy abstract this paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices we construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production using this model we find three main results first we find formulas for equilibrium forward futures discount bond commodity bond and commodity option prices second we show that a futures price is actually a forward price for the delivery of a random number of units of a good the random number is the return earned from continuous reinvestment in instantaneously riskless bonds until maturity of the futures contract third we find and interpret conditions under which normal backwardation or contango is found in forward or futures prices these conditions reflect the usefulness of forward and futures contracts as consumption hedges

social multi criteria evaluation methodological foundations and operational consequences in order to address contemporary issues economics and decision sciences need to expand their empirical relevance by introducing more and more realistic thus more complex assumptions in their models one of the most interesting research directions in the field of public economics is the attempt to introduce political constraints interest groups and collusion effects explicitly j j laffont incentives and political economy 2000 the main argument developed here is the proposal of the concept of social multi criteria evaluation smce as a possible useful framework for the application of social choice to the difficult policy problems of our millennium where as stated by funtowicz and ravetz facts are uncertain values in dispute stakes high and decisions urgent this paper starts from the following main questions 1 why social multi criteria evaluation 2 how should such an approach be developed the foundations of smce are set up by referring to concepts from complex system theory and philosophy such as reflexive complexity post normal science and incommensurability to give some operational guidelines on the application of smce basic questions to be answered are 1 how is it possible to deal with technical incommensurability 2 how can we deal with the issue of social incommensurability to answer these questions using theoretical considerations and lessons learned from real world case studies is the main objective of the present article

a participatory approach to sustainable energy strategy development in a carbon intensive jurisdiction the case of nova scotia the need for governments to reduce the exposure of energy consumers to future increases in fossil fuel prices places urgent pressure on policy makers to deliver fundamental transformations in energy strategies particularly in jurisdictions with high dependency on fossil fuel sources dorian et al 2006 this transformation is unlikely without a high level of stakeholder engagement in the policy development process this paper describes two policy development processes recently undertaken in nova scotia in which the inclusion of stakeholder views was central to the approach the first delivered a new institutional framework for electricity energy efficiency involving the inception of an independent performance based administrator the second required the delivery of a strategy to significantly increase renewable energy generation in the province it involved recommendations for changes in institutional arrangements financial incentives and technological options this process was followed by new commitments to renewable energy developments new infrastructure for the importation of hydro electricity and the announcement of fits for ocean energy in both cases recommendations were made by an independent academic institution and the government responded directly to a majority of recommendations the paper concludes with a discussion of lessons learned and the implications for future energy policy making in carbon intensive jurisdictions

on real interest rate dynamics and regime switching abstract we find evidence of regime switching dynamics in the usa and the uk real interest rates over the period 1881 2003 for the uk there is a regime in which the real interest rate displays a relatively stronger mean reversion and a regime in which it displays a relatively weaker mean reversion the former regime is characterized by a relatively larger error in the estimation of the reversion parameter and higher volatility for the usa the two regimes differ in volatility the probability of transition from one regime to another is found to be significantly related to the inflation rate regime and to the political regime the results highlight the importance of regime switching in the dynamics of the real interest rate as well as the role of inflation and political regimes in explaining this switching

linking political ecology with ecological economics in tree plantation conflicts in cameroon and ecuador abstract industrial tree plantations are rapidly expanding worldwide and notably causing a growing number of conflicts between companies and local populations such conflicts the focus of the article have been neglected by ecological economists although there is a proliferation of related reports by environmental non governmental organizations this paper uses empirical evidence to show how elements of political ecology and ecological economics can be combined for understanding the languages of valuation deployed in tree plantation conflicts in southern countries combining qualitative fieldwork on a cameroonian rubber plantation and an ecuadorian eucalypt plantation with a methodological framework taken from the study of social metabolism we find that both conflicts although with different emphasis arise because of land and biomass appropriation ground clearing pollution from agrochemicals and water shortage and are expressed as conflicts on valuation the metabolism of such tree plantations through the exchanges of materials with the local environment explains the bio physical basis of such conflicts in the cameroon case resistance is mainly sporadic and individual while in ecuador a grassroots organization has been able to respond to rural demands in a structured way both patterns of resistance are found in other present day resource extraction conflicts

an equilibrium model of exchange rate determination and asset pricing with nontraded goods and imperfect information this paper presents a two country model with maximizing households stochastic production stochastic money growth and perfect capital mobility because of the presence of nontraded goods households in different countries consume different goods analytic solutions are presented for the nominal exchange rate the real exchange rate nominal interest rates and real interest rates it is shown that the model is compatible with some important features of the real world behavior of exchange rates when households are imperfectly informed about the distribution of money growth the exchange rate exhibits patterns of overshooting and is more volatile than the ratio of the money stocks copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

the term structure of interest rates with housing abstract this paper develops a general equilibrium model to study the link between the amount of capital invested in housing assets and the term structure of interest rates in the model the production of housing assets is irreversible and housing assets can be used as collateral for borrowing funds agents decisions about consumption and investments in housing and non housing assets generate a time varying market price of risk that drives the dynamics of the term structure the calibration to u s data using the simulated method of moments technique captures the dynamics of consumption and the short and long term interest rates

social acceptance of renewable energy innovation an introduction to the concept this paper introduces the special issue on social acceptance of renewable energy innovation it is a collection of best papers presented at an international research conference held in tramelan switzerland in february 2006 while there are ambitious government targets to increase the share of renewable energy in many countries it is increasingly recognized that social acceptance may be a constraining factor in achieving this target this is particularly apparent in the case of wind energy which has become a subject of contested debates in several countries largely due to its visual impact on landscapes this paper introduces three dimensions of social acceptance namely socio political community and market acceptance factors influencing socio political and community acceptance are increasingly recognized as being important for understanding the apparent contradictions between general public support for renewable energy innovation and the difficult realization of specific projects the third dimension market acceptance has received less attention so far and provides opportunities for further research particularly from management scholars

engaging the public on paths to sustainable energy who has to trust whom the aim is to observe how hydrogen in its wider meaning as a system innovation is understood by a cross section of the general public in three regions of the uk that have embryonic developments teesside south west wales and london focus groups were conducted in two separate phases the first involving nine groups took place between june 2005 and march 2006 the second involving seven groups took place in the period october november 2006 mainly with groups reconvened after the first phase they presented to participants user friendly information about possible scenarios for a hydrogen economy and helped the group to identify criteria that might be most salient for decision makers public awareness of hydrogen in the three case study areas both in general and in relation to local demonstration projects proved minimal with the exception of the few who had direct experience of the chemical industry in teesside and south west wales when engaged in an informed debate about hydrogen and its future possible developments participants were willing to learn about the different options and expected to be fully informed on how these would impact on their everyday lives as consumers and citizens risk perception is important but not the only factor in lay understanding of hydrogen more relevant is the extent to which the different configurations of hydrogen systems align with the public s view of the world social and environmental values needs and expectations and how participants think hydrogen energy would be embedded in their daily routines there is a lack of trust in political authorities business and industry and within and across different social groups ambivalence in how trust is placed on information providers role models and opinion formers and public unease in dealing with and making sense of conflicting information coming from expert sources the evidence is useful to inform policy both on national and local level it is especially useful in addressing public engagement as a political strategy

securities markets diffusion state processes and arbitrage free shadow prices this paper develops the parametric restrictions imposed on diffusion state processes by the requirement of arbitrage free asset pricing using the equivalent martingale measure as a starting point the diffusion property is exploited to specify the shadow pricing func tion which takes conditional state variable probabilities under the reference measure into arbitrage free contingent claim prices the main results of the paper provide differential equations associated with the shadow price function that are used to identify restrictions on the parameters of assumed diffusion processes the paper concludes with an application to the cir model where the state variable the instantaneous interest rate is assumed to follow a square root process calculations are also provided for the parametric restrictions imposed on the brownian bridge and ou state variable processes

time horizon and the discount rate abstract we consider an economy a la lucas 1978 econometrica46 1429 1446 with a risk averse representative agent the exogenous growth rate of the economy follows a random walk we characterize the set of utility functions for which it is efficient to discount more distant cash flows at a lower rate the benchmark result is that when the growth rate is almost surely nonnegative the yield curve is decreasing if and only if relative risk aversion is decreasing with wealth relaxing the assumption on the absence of recession requires more restrictions on preferences such as increasing relative prudence journal of economic literature classification numbers d81 d91 q25 q28

equilibrium valuation of foreign exchange claims this article studies the equilibrium valuation of foreign exchange contingent claims within a continuous time lucas 1982 two country model exchange rates interest rates and in particular factor risk prices are all endogenously and jointly determined this guarantees the internal consistency of these price processes with a general equilibrium in the same model closed form valuation formulas are presented for currency options and currency futures options common to these formulas is that stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates are admitted hedge ratios and other comparative statics are also provided analytically it is shown that most existing currency option models are included as special cases this article studies the equilibrium valuation and hedging of foreign exchange contingent claims the framework for analysis is the continuous time counterpart of the well known two country monetary model of lucas 1982 1 that is we use the modeling structure of lucas 1982 and adopt his representativeagent perfect pooling equilibrium notion rather than extending the lucas setup to a cox ingersoll and ross 1985a henceforth cir production economy as is done in nielsen and saa requejo 1993 for our purpose the lucas framework offers the desired simplicity and tractability we assume a stochastic structure for the international economy such that the resulting nominal interest rates and exchange rate dynamics exhibit similar empirically plausible features as the corresponding ones in nielsen and saa requejo 1993 for example the endogenous interest rates are positively correlated across national borders campbell and clarida 1987 and ilmanen 1995 as a predictor of future spot exchange rates the equilibrium forward exchange rate is biased in a direction consistent with the forward premium puzzle

a simple nonnegative process for equilibrium models abstract this paper presents a general specification for dynamic equilibrium models where nonnegative variables follow the autoregressive gamma process in jasiak and gourieroux 2006 the model solution implies linear dynamics for endogenous variables and provides conditional and unconditional moments in closed form finding the solution is computationally inexpensive requiring only to solve linear and quadratic equations the specification can be applied to a wide variety of models in finance and economics two applications are presented first a time varying volatility premium in a long run risks asset pricing model second time varying volatility in policy shocks in a simple new keynesian model accuracy in these models solutions is high and not significantly affected by time varying volatility

pricing weather derivatives this article presents a general method for pricing weather derivatives specification tests find that a temperature series for fresno ca follows a mean reverting brownian motion process with discrete jumps and autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors based on this process we define an equilibrium pricing model for cooling degree day weather options comparing option prices estimated with three methods a traditional burn rate approach a black scholes merton approximation and an equilibrium monte carlo simulation reveals significant differences equilibrium prices are preferred on theoretical grounds so are used to demonstrate the usefulness of weather derivatives as risk management tools for california specialty crop growers

accounting for forward rates in markets for foreign currency absteract forward and spot exchange rates between major currencies imply large standard deviations of both predictable returns from currency speculation and of the equilibrium price measure the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution representative agent theory with time additive preferences cannot account for either of these properties we show that the theory does considerably better along these dimensions when the representative agent s preferences exhibit habit persistence but that the theory fails to reproduce some of the other properties of the data in particular the strong autocorrelation of forward premiums since the advent of flexible exchange rates in the early 1970s a large body of statistical work has established that forward rates for major currencies are not optimal predictors of future spot rates relevant evidence is reported in studies by baillie lippens and mcmahon 1983 bekaert 1991 bilson 1981 boothe and longworth 1984 cumby 1988 cumby and obstfeld 1984 fama 1984 gregory and mccurdy 1984 hansen and hodrick 1983 hodrick and srivastava 1984 and korajczyk and viallet 1990 a more complete list of references is provided by hodrick 1987 these papers indicate that returns from speculation in forward and spot currency markets are predictable and that the predictable components vary considerably over time a number of alternative explanations have been offered for the predictable variation in foreign currency market excess returns kaminsky 1988 korajczyk 1985 and krasker 1980 suggest that infrequent extreme events may make returns appear predictable in small samples the so called peso problem lewis 1989 argues that rational learning following infrequent changes in the process governing equilibrium prices can explain part of the ex post predictability of currency returns froot and frankel 1989 and froot and thaler 1990 examine the hypothesis that market forecasts of future spot

sustainability assessment of electricity production using a logic models approach the topic sustainable development has brought a wide discussion across a number of sectors in our society namely in power systems given the need to address other concerns than the economic ones decision makers must take into account the rationale that lies beneath strategic choices such as investing in generation technologies using renewable energy or rather doing business as usual and installing fossil fuel power plants in this paper logic models were used as a decision aid supporting tool with the aim of contributing to the assessment of the possible impacts of different power plants in terms of sustainable development the analyzed electricity generation technologies were grouped in thermal renewable energy sources ress and nuclear the literature review fed the construction of three relational diagrams to allow the visualization of environmental social and economic causes and effects of the three groups of technologies departing from these initial diagrams a set of interviews with experts was conducted to enrich and validate the logic models the results of the literature review and of these interviews allowed to conclude that the use of res has wider positive social impacts on the long run despite their short term higher costs compared to the traditional groups nuclear and thermal these logic models revealed to be a useful tool providing a valuable starting approach for an impact assessment of the ongoing change that power systems have been going through

towards an ecological theory of unequal exchange articulating world system theory and ecological economics abstract the focus of this paper is on how an ecological perspective might provide us with an analytically more precise way of defining unequal exchange it is only by looking at the ecological conditions of human economies that we can adequately conceptualize the mechanisms which generate inequalities in distribution considerations of market power aside neoclassical economic ideology has dispelled all possible criteria for assessing a market transaction as unequal or unfair one way to assess the occurrence of unequal exchange may be to look at the direction of net flows of energy and materials concrete productive potential but without falling into the trap of equating productive potential with economic value on the contrary it can be analytically demonstrated that unequal exchange emerges from a kind of inverse relationship between productive potential and economic value the notion of a reasonable market price conceals the fact that what is being exchanged are intact resources for products representing resources already spent if we consider longitudinally along the production process any given set of fuels and raw materials destined to be transformed into a given product plus waste its content of available energy will be inversely related to its utility or price in other words the more of its original energy that has been dissipated the higher its price this means that production i e the dissipation of resources will continuously be rewarded with ever more resources to dissipate generating ecological destruction and global core periphery inequalities as two sides of the same coin

nominal contracts in a bimetallic standard as its central feature a bimetallic standard grants nominal debtors an option to deliver either of two metals with results from the option pricing literature construction of a formula to evaluate the bimetallic option in debt instruments is straightforward with this formula one can compute the option value in a wide range of nineteenth century u s treasury securities posession of the option values permits an adjustment of the yields on u s securities to make them comparable to yields on nonmetallic european securities evaluating the option allows the estimation of transfers from debtors to creditors copyright 1986 by american economic association

introduction epistemic communities and international policy coordination the growing technical uncertainties and complexities of problems of global concern have made international policy coordination not only increasingly necessary but also increasingly difficult if decision makers are unfamiliar with the technical aspects of a specific problem how do they define state interests and develop viable solutions what factors shape their behavior under conditions of uncertainty what are the origins of international institutions and how can we best study the processes through which international policy coordination and order emerge while a variety of analytic approaches have been used to address the problems of international cooperation the approaches have yielded only fragmentary insights at its core the study of policy coordination among states involves arguments about determinism versus free will and about the ways in which the international system is maintained and transformed among the overlapping topics of debate are whether national behavior is determined or broadly conditioned by system level factors unit level factors or some complex interplay between the two whether state policymakers can identify national interests and behave independently of pressures from the social groups they nominally represent and whether states respond consistently to opportunities to create defend or expand their own wealth and power to enhance collective material benefits or to promote nonmaterial values a related question of

an intertemporal general equilibrium asset pricing model the case of diffusion information this paper provides sufficient conditions for the equilibrium price system and a vector of exogenously specified state variable processes to form a diffusion process in a pure exchange economy the conditions involve smoothness of agents utility functions and certain nice properties of the aggregate endowment process and the dividend processes of traded assets in place of the dynamic programming a martingale representation technique is utilized to characterize equilibrium portfolio policies this technique is useful even when there does not exist a finite dimensional markov structure in the economy and thus the markovian stochastic dynamic programming is not applicable a gents are shown to hold certain hedging mutual funds and the riskless asset in contrast to earlier results the market portfolio does not have a special role in hedging since the markets are dynamically complete when there exists a finite dimensional markov system in the economy the dimension of the hedging demand identified through the markovian dynamic programming may be much larger than that identified by the martingale method copyright 1987 by the econometric society

towards trust in regulation moving to a public value regulation abstract the uk government has committed itself to reducing its carbon dioxide emissions the challenge of successfully achieving a transition to a sustainable energy system in the context of the uk s largely privately owned energy industry rests on the ability of policy makers to encourage and enable the necessary changes or innovation at all levels of the energy system this paper argues that the uk s current dominant political paradigm or framework the regulatory state paradigm rsp and within it the role of the economic regulator ofgem acts as a fundamental block to this challenge the current economic regulatory system is based on trust in the market or on predicted albeit theoretical known outcomes to expand our regulatory system to one which can deliver a sustainable energy system requires innovation in a certain direction as opposed to any innovation that is the antithesis of the current process of regulation trust is required that ofgem the economic regulator will develop rules and incentives which deliver an agreed sustainable energy goal which is trusted to be the right goal this requires ofgem moving away from ex ante regulation to a type of regulation where all costs benefits and outcomes cannot be known beforehand and where they cannot necessarily be quantifiable this has very provisionally been called public value regulation pvr

uncertainties and risks in transitions to sustainable energy and the part trust might play in managing them a comparison with the current pension crisis abstract transition to a sustainable energy future carries uncertainties for all stakeholders including those who research it history does not repeat itself in detail yet comparison with analogous processes already completed or in train could give shape to how we project the future the author focuses not on the technical change required but rather on the institutional and cultural changes that would be necessary to generate the political will and the consumer demand that would drive technical change and its widespread adoption he examines a current crisis for most developed countries that of old age pension provision which though lacking a link with new technology might have similar social dynamics to an impending crisis in energy in the analysis of the pensions crisis the focus is upon both how risk has been encountered and also the part played by trust mistrust in engendering and prospectively resolving crisis between citizens and state between regulator and providers and between consumers and providers analogies are drawn from in a similar way for the impending energy crisis a refrain throughout is the dialectic between market and plan it is concluded that both the actual and the impending crisis have to be reviewed in a context of relations between states as well as relations within them

trust and the transformation of energy systems the author looks at diverse concepts and roles of trust in the challenge of decarbonising energy systems drawing on 25 years of personal experience in the fields of energy and environmental policy research the paper focuses on three issues public trust in science institutional trust in making technology choices and the idea that high trust societies are more sustainable than those exhibiting low trust while trust is a key concept in understanding the public acceptability of technology choices it is only one of a suite of interrelated concepts that must be addressed which also includes liability consent and fairness furthermore rational distrust among competing institutional world views may be critical in understanding the role of social capital in socioeconomic and technological development thus the concept of trust has become a portmanteau carrying a diverse range of ideas and conditions for sustainable energy systems the paper concludes with three emphases for decision makers first the issue is the energy system not particular generating technologies second the energy system must be recognized to be as much a social system as it is a technical one third the system requires incorporation of the minimum level of diversity of engineering technologies and social actors to be sustainable

policy instruments fostering wind energy projects a multi perspective evaluation approach abstract during the last decade a large number of policy instruments have been developed and implemented all over europe aiming at supporting renewable energy project development however the success of the different policy approaches varies significantly given the very different mechanisms of the diverse instruments the design or the selection of appropriate instruments may cause methodological difficulties in order to support instrument selection economists have developed several evaluation criteria however this paper states that most of the typically proposed and applied criteria catalogues still neglect the interests and requirements of important stakeholder groups this paper therefore proposes a more integrated evaluation approach taking into account the different interests of all relevant stakeholder groups in the three fields renewable energy business especially wind industry policy making and conventional power business

the ecological economics of economic democracy abstract ecological economics is at a sharp crossroads today mostly due to the unprecedented scale of the intertwined social and ecological crises we face we argue that the discipline should engage with the thinking and practices around alternatives to capitalism more substantially as this is essential and invaluable for the discipline s ability to contribute to a just and sustainable future we outline an agenda for future ecological economics research on economic alternatives that are shaped by the concrete ways in which economic democracy deals with issues of uncertainty complexity and value incommensurability and contribute to a kind of political economy that ecological economics would advocate we lay out how this question could be operationalised within the context of allocation and exchange i e alternatives to market production and investment i e alternatives to capitalist firm and economic subjectivities i e alternatives to self interest

single factor heath jarrow morton term structure models based on markov spot interest rate dynamics this paper considers the class of heath jarrow morton term structure models where the spot interest rate is markov and the term structure at time t is a function of time maturity and the spot interest rate at time t a representation for this class of models is derived and i show that the functional forms of the forward rate volatility structure and the initial forward rate curve cannot be arbitrarily chosen i provide necessary and sufficient conditions indicating which combinations of these functional forms are allowable i also derive a partial differential equation representation of the term structure dynamics that does not require explicit modeling of both the market price of risk and the drift term for the spot interest rate process using the analysis presented in this paper a class of intertemporal term structure models is derived

learning together growing apart global warming energy policy and international trust abstract standard models of uncertainty in economics imply that sharing information can reduce uncertainty and help identify welfare improving policies in international relations epistemic communities of scientists are thought to help provide information for these purposes however conflicting preferences can frustrate the transmission of information and prevent effective information sharing in addition opportunities for information sharing can deepen distrust as actors observe each other s reaction to what to them is credible information a model that assumes uncertainty both about the state of the world and the parties motivations is applied to international climate change negotiations

investment barriers and incentives for marine renewable energy in the uk an analysis of investor preferences abstract deployment of marine renewable energy mre in the uk is desirable in order to address climate change meet mandatory eu renewable energy targets and provide significant economic development opportunities including new export markets public funding constraints in the uk mean that substantial investment is required from the private sector to commercialize the industry by focussing on investor attitudes and behaviours towards wave and tidal technologies this paper reveals significant observations from the investment community with serious implications for the future of the mre industry through a series of in depth interviews with individuals from the investment community device developers and industry support the research seeks to identify common barriers and incentives to investment the paper demonstrates that although investors attitudes are generally aligned they do appear to have changed over time of the participants that had previously invested in early stage mre device development none were likely to do so again it is concluded that this is a function of investors greater understanding of the scale and unpredictability of the costs and the length of time required to develop these technologies this presents a significant policy challenge for all actors interested in the commercialization of wave and tidal technologies

pricing mortgage default and foreclosure delay this paper extends current mortgage pricing models to recognize the impact that delays between default and foreclosure have on the value of default to the borrower and the resulting value of the mortgage to investors the model explicitly captures potential costs through postforeclosure deficiency judgments and benefits in the elimination of negative equity and free rent that must be weighed at the time of default in determining whether the ultimate put option via allowing foreclosure is in the money the results provide policy implications concerning the operation of the fha insurance program copyright 1997 by ohio state university press

sustainable development in a post brundtland world not yet two decades after the publication of our common future the world s political and environmental landscape has changed significantly nonetheless we argue that the concept and practice of sustainable development sd as guiding institutional principle as concrete policy goal and as focus of political struggle remains salient in confronting the multiple challenges of this new global order yet how sd is conceptualized and practiced hinges crucially on the willingness of scholars and practitioners to embrace a plurality of epistemological and normative perspectives on sustainability the multiple interpretations and practices associated with the evolving concept of development and efforts to open up a continuum of local to global public spaces to debate and enact a politics of sustainability embracing pluralism provides a way out of the ideological and epistemological straightjackets that deter more cohesive and politically effective interpretations of sd using pluralism as a starting point for the analysis and normative construction of sustainable development we pay particular attention to how an amalgam of ideas from recent work in ecological economics political ecology and the development as freedom literature might advance the sd debate beyond its post brundtland quagmire enhanced levels of ecological degradation vast inequalities in economic opportunities both within and across societies and a fractured set of institutional arrangements for global environmental governance all represent seemingly insurmountable obstacles to a move towards sustainability while these obstacles are significant we suggest how they might be overcome through a reinvigorated set of notions and practices associated with sustainable development one that explicitly examines the linkages between sustainability policies and sustainability politics

on the theory of international currency portfolios abstract the paper develops a general equilibrium theory of the optimal currency composition of international bond portfolios like the partial equilibrium portfolio balance literature of the 1980s the theory emphasizes the critical roles of government debt and government balance sheet operations in the determination of portfolios prices and allocations consistent with empirical findings optimal foreign currency positions are found to be small with their size decreasing with exchange rate volatility while optimal domestic currency positions are large and increasing with domestic interest rates a large open market purchase of domestic currency bonds from private households lowers domestic interest rates

biophysical structure of the ecuadorian economy foreign trade and policy implications abstract at the core of this paper lays the notion that a systematic analysis of material flow accounts enables us to discuss the sustainability of an economic model ecuador is going through a socio ecological transition from an agrarian towards an industrial regime based on the use of nonrenewable sources of materials and energy direct material flow indicators are used in this article to analyze the ecological dimension of the economy of ecuador during 1970 2007 this approach enables the concept of societal metabolism to become operative the paper compares societal metabolic profiles showing that per capita use of materials is still at about one fifth of the average in the high income countries of the world physical flows of trade indicate that there is an ecologically unequal exchange whereas a positive trade balance is desirable from an economic policy its counterpart in physical units has been a persistent net outflow of material resources the extraction of which causes environmental impacts and social conflicts

moment based estimation of stochastic volatility abstract this paper makes use of the distributional information contained in high frequency data to test for the specification of the functional form of the volatility process within the class of stochastic volatility models it s calculus is implemented in order to obtain the first and second conditional moment of the driving stochastic differential equation for the volatility process these analytical expressions are augmented by their lag and lag squared and are used to form the corresponding gmm estimator the base case stochastic volatility model is extended to allow for the leverage effect and jumps in returns empirical estimation confirms the presence of fast mean reversion in volatility and jumps in returns for the 5 min s p 500 stock market index further estimation results also seem to indicate the presence of jumps in the volatility process that are correlated to the jumps in returns

gain loss asymmetric stochastic differential utility abstract this study examines a gain loss asymmetric utility in continuous time in which the investor discounts their utility gain by more than the utility loss by employing the theory of stochastic differential utility the model allows an endogenously time varying subjective discount rate in addition the model can express various forms of utility functions including a version of the epstein zin utility under the model even if the state variables do not have any jump in their paths the optimal consumption wealth ratio and portfolio weight can change non smoothly

green electricity policies in the netherlands an analysis of policy decisions over the last decades fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the netherlands the dutch government has regularly intervened in markets demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach this study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the netherlands it assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups the role of stakeholders and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases in the early 1990s the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales which were never met in the second half of the 1990s a regulatory energy tax was introduced from which customers of green electricity were exempt this led to a substantial increase in demand which was largely met by green electricity imports and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity finally a change in policy has taken place recently 2003 shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed in tariffs despite the renewable energy policies growth of the renewable energy market in the netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met the dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous in addition the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies

the statistical and economic role of jumps in continuous time interest rate models this paper analyzes the role of jumps in continuous time short rate models i first develop a test to detect jump induced misspecification and using treasury bill rates find evidence for the presence of jumps second i specify and estimate a nonparametric jump diffusion model results indicate that jumps play an important statistical role estimates of jump times and sizes indicate that unexpected news about the macroeconomy generates the jumps finally i investigate the pricing implications of jumps jumps generally have a minor impact on yields but they are important for pricing interest rate options

the politics of renewable energy policies the case of feed in tariffs in ontario canada designing and implementing a renewable energy policy involves political decisions and actors yet most research on renewable energy policies comparatively evaluates instruments from an economic or technical perspective this paper presents a case study of ontario s feed in tariff policies between 1997 and 2012 to analyze how the political process affects renewable energy policy design and implementation ontario s policy although initially successful has met with increasing resistance over time the case reveals key political tensions that arise during implementation first high level support for a policy does not necessarily translate into widespread public support particularly for local deployment second the government often struggles under asymmetric information during price setting which may weaken the policy s legitimacy with the public due to higher costs third there is an unacknowledged tension that governments must navigate between policy stability to spur investment and adaptive policymaking to improve policy design fourth when multiple jurisdictions pursue the same policies simultaneously international political conflict over jobs and innovation may occur these implementation tensions result from political choices during policy design and present underappreciated challenges to transforming the electricity system governments need to critically recognize the political dimension of renewable energy policies to secure sustained political support

comparative dynamics of an equilibrium intertemporal asset pricing model this paper uses recursive competitive theory to develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model in this framework all prices and rates of return are endogenously determined thus enabling us to analyze the effects of changes in preferences technological uncertainty and expectations on the structure of security prices in particular we focus on how the market risk premium varies with changes in the underlying economic environment an issue which other asset pricing models have chosen not to address

hedging derivative securities and incomplete markets an e arbitrage approach given a european derivative security with an arbitrary payoff function and a corresponding set of underlying securities on which the derivative security is based we solve the optimal replication problem find a self financing dynamic portfolio strategy involving only the underlying securities that most closely approximates the payoff function at maturity by applying stochastic dynamic programming to the minimization of a mean squared error loss function under markov state dynamics we derive recursive expressions for the optimal replication strategy that are readily implemented in practice the approximation error or e of the optimal replication strategy is also given recursively and may be used to quantify the degree of market incompleteness to investigate the practical significance of these e arbitrage strategies we consider several numerical examples including path dependent options and options on assets with stochastic volatility and jumps