limited commitment and the demand for money understanding money demand is important for our comprehension of macroeconomics and monetary policy its instability has made this a challenge common explications for the instability are financial regulations and financial innovations that shift the money demand function we provide a complementary view by showing that a model where borrowers have limited commitment can significantly improve the fit between the theoretical money demand function and the data limited commitment can also explain why the ratio of credit to m1 is currently so low despite that nominal interest rates are at their lowest recorded levels this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

pathways to a low carbon economy estimations on macroeconomic costs and potential of carbon emission abatement in beijing abstract developing reliable frameworks to estimate the potential of co2 emission abatement and its associated costs merits urgent attention this study aims to estimate the potential as well as macroeconomic costs of co2 emission abatement in beijing using the industrial economy as the basis multiobjective programming and genetic algorithm are integrated into the input output analysis several important findings have been gathered in the study 1 the abatement cost varies between 259 97 and 535 46 per ton at different rates of economic growth 2 a reinforced emission abatement target can induce higher macroeconomic costs 3 an inverse u shaped relationship between co2 reduction cost and gdp growth rate was found when gdp growth rate is above the threshold value of 7 marginal abatement costs decrease rapidly in parallel with gdp growth when the gdp growth rate is below 7 the marginal abatement cost increases significantly with economic growth 4 industries that have the highest and least potential of abatement have been identified for effectively reducing co2 emissions beijing needs to promote economic restructuring to maximize the potential of emission abatement and also fulfil the emission abatement target in a cost effective way this paper provides a quantitative approach to rationalize the policy design process of enacting emission targets and recommends cost effective abatement strategies

macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in asian economies abstract this paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of structural oil shocks in four of the top oil consuming asian economies using a var model we identify three different structural oil shocks via sign restrictions an oil supply shock an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil specific demand shock the main results suggest that economic activity and prices respond very differently to oil price shocks depending on their types in particular an oil supply shock has a limited impact while a demand shock driven by global economic activity has a significant positive effect in all four asian countries examined our finding also includes that policy tools such as interest rates and exchange rates help mitigating the effects of supply shocks in japan and korea however they can be more actively used in response to demands shocks

structural decomposition analysis of sources of decarbonizing economic development in china 1992 2006 abstract to analyze and understand decarbonizing economic development in china this paper undertakes a structural decomposition analysis of the historical change in energy related carbon intensity in china between 1992 and 2006 the results show that the energy related carbon intensity in china decreased by about three fourths between 1992 and 2006 and reduced carbon emissions by about two billion tons the decline in the energy related carbon intensity was mainly caused by changes in production pattern especially changes in energy intensity within each sector between 1992 and 2002 however the most important driving force of carbon intensity from 2002 2006 was not the energy intensity within each sector but the input mix on the other hand changes in demand pattern pushed up the carbon intensity to further decarbonize the economy in the future it is important for china to further enforce policies on shaping the production pattern such as reducing energy intensity and pay more attention to increasing the sustainability of the demand pattern at the same time

financial technology shocks and the case of the missing m2 m2 growth was unusually weak in the early 1990s when its velocity soared although m2 growth subsequently recovered its velocity plateaued at a high level giving rise to a case of missing money these swings in m2 growth have accompanied opposite swings in bond mutual fund inflows m2 growth is better tracked and the missing m2 problem is resolved when money models are modified to account for shifts in bond mutual fund costs this approach avoids the capital gains and portfolio substitution problems posed by adding bond or equity funds to m2 while capturing the substitution effects relevant to money demand

a note on the role of energy in production abstract energy plays no role in the standard cobb douglas production function cdpf and a trivial role in a three factor cdpf where it is treated as a third input independent of labour and capital starting from an epistemological perspective we treat energy as an input to both labour and capital without which production is impossible we then derive an energy based cpdf ebcdpf in which energy plays a critical role we argue for the redefinition and measurement of real gdp in terms of exergy we conclude that the solow residual measures the contribution of exergy to growth and that the exponents in the ebcdpf should be based on cross country comparative data as suggested by mankiw 1995 rather than the cost share theorem

path towards achieving of china s 2020 carbon emission reduction target a discussion of low carbon energy policies at province level abstract following the announcement of the china s 2020 national target for the reduction of the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gdp by 40 45 compared with 2005 levels chinese provincial governments prepared to restructure provincial energy policy and plan their contribution to realizing the state reduction target focusing on fujian and anhui provinces as case studies this paper reviews two contrasting policies as a means for meeting the national reduction target that of the coastal province of fujian proposes to do so largely through the development of nuclear power whilst the coal rich province of anhui proposes to do so through its energy consumption rate rising at a lower rate than that of the rise in gdp in both cases renewable energy makes up a small proportion of their proposed 2020 energy structures the conclusion discusses in depth concerns about nuclear power policy energy efficiency energy consumption strategy and problems in developing renewable energy

rethinking the liquidity puzzle application of a new measure of the economic money stock historically attempts to solve the liquidity puzzle have focused on narrowly defined monetary aggregates such as non borrowed reserves the monetary base or m1 many of these efforts have failed to find a short term negative correlation between interest rates and monetary policy innovations more recent research uses sophisticated macroeconomic and econometric modeling however little research has investigated the role measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle since in nearly every case work investigating the liquidity puzzle has used one of the official monetary aggregates which have been shown to exhibit significant measurement error this paper examines the role that measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle by i providing a theoretical framework explaining how the official simple sum methodology can lead to a liquidity puzzle and ii testing for the liquidity effect by estimating an unrestricted var

retail sweep programs and monetary asset substitution abstract this paper examines how retail sweep programs affect monetary asset substitution estimates from the fourier flexible form reveal that sweeping generates systematic and sometimes large distortions in estimated bank depositor substitution elasticities

ces technology and business cycle fluctuations we contribute to an emerging literature that brings the constant elasticity of substitution ces specification of the production function into the analysis of business cycle fluctuations using us data we estimate by bayesian maximum likelihood methods a standard medium sized dsge model with a ces rather than cobb douglas cd technology we estimate a elasticity of substitution between capital and labour well below unity at 0 15 0 18 in a marginal likelihood race ces decisively beats the cd production and this is matched by its ability to fit the data better in terms of second moments we show that this result is mainly driven by the implied fluctuations of factor shares under the ces specification the ces model performance is further improved when the estimation is carried out under an imperfect information assumption hence the main message for dsge models is that we should dismiss once and for all the use of cd for business cycle analysis

who shapes china s carbon intensity and how a demand side decomposition analysis abstract as national efforts to decouple carbon emissions from economic growth intensify policymakers need more specific sub national information about the sources and reduction potentials of carbon intensity this study presents a demand side decomposition of china s carbon intensity to its regions final demand types and economic sectors based on a predefined aggregate embodied intensity aei indicator i e the ratio of embodied emissions to embodied value added we find that china s carbon intensity has been largely shaped by developed provinces capital investment demand and the construction sector however less developed provinces consumption demand and the services sector have played increasingly important roles wealthy provinces generally experienced much lower aeis and higher aei reductions compared to poor provinces from 2007 to 2012 mainly owing to the provincial differences in final demand structure and sectoral structure coastal region s emission reduction efforts at both production and demand sides were the main contributor to china s decrease in carbon intensity during the period while interior region s structural degradation in demand partially offset the decrease our results suggest that allocating national carbon intensity targets based on aei and adjusting the final demand structure of central western provinces would greatly benefit for china to achieve its ambitious carbon intensity target by 2030

interest on bank reserves and optimal sweeping abstract a key rationale offered by the federal reserve for the payment of interest on reserves was to remove the incentive for banks to operate sweep accounts sweeping shifts funds from transactions deposits subject to reserve requirements to non reservable deposits this paper extends a conventional banking model to analyze sweeping behavior sweeping responds positively to increases in bank loan rates and reserve ratios and negatively to increases in the interest rate on reserves or exogenous increases in bank equity sweeping generates greater responsiveness in lending to changes in loan rates or the interest rate on reserves and lower responsiveness to changes in reserve ratios or equity than in its absence empirical analysis of an explicit condition that we derive suggests that with an unchanged reserve requirement the fed could eliminate sweeping by setting the interest rate on reserves to no less than approximately 4 points below the market loan rate

how ambitious are china and india s emissions intensity targets abstract several developing economies have announced carbon emissions targets for 2020 as part of the negotiating process for a post kyoto climate policy regime china and india s commitments are framed as reductions in the emissions intensity of the economy by 40 45 and 20 25 respectively between 2005 and 2020 how feasible are the proposed reductions in emissions intensity for china and india and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in the us and the eu in this paper we use a stochastic frontier model of energy intensity to decompose energy intensity into the effects of input and output mix climate and a residual technology variable we use the model to produce emissions projections for china and india under a number of scenarios regarding the pace of technological change and changes in the share of non fossil energy we find that china is likely to need to adopt ambitious carbon mitigation policies in order to achieve its stated target and that its targeted reductions in emissions intensity are on par with those implicit in the us and eu targets india s target is less ambitious and might be met with only limited or even no dedicated mitigation policies

another look at long run money demand abstract this paper investigates the long run demand for m1 in the postwar united states previous studies based on data ending in the late 1980s are inconclusive about the parameters of postwar money demand this paper obtains precise estimates of these parameters by extending the data through 1996 the income elasticity of money demand is approximately 0 5 and the interest semi elasticity is approximately 0 05 these parameters are significantly smaller in absolute value than the corresponding parameters for the prewar period a caveat is that the analysis assumes there is no trend in money demand resulting from technological change

can china achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth in 2009 the chinese government announced its carbon intensity target for 2020 can china achieve this carbon intensity while sustaining economic growth to address this essential issue the contributions of this study lie in three aspects first we quantitatively capture the relationship between china s economic growth and energy consumption using the cointegration theory and predict china s energy consumption by 2020 according to different economic growth targets second we forecast china s energy structure in 2020 using compositional data and arima models under different scenarios third we deduce china s co2 emission and carbon intensity in 2020 furthermore we investigate whether or not china can realize the carbon intensity target in premise of ensuring economic growth and evaluate the contribution of the energy structure s adjustment to meeting this target finally we put forward some relevant policy implications for achieving china s carbon intensity target

can china meet its 2020 economic growth and carbon emissions reduction targets abstract as a developing country china faces the dual challenges of economic development and environment protection this study analyzes whether the chinese government will be able to implement this win win goal and how to achieve it in 2020 the results show that 1 the annual contribution rates to gdp of comprehensive factors human capital fixed capital fossil energy and non fossil energy during 1991 2013 were 33 97 14 17 15 47 14 91 and 21 47 respectively china s economic growth mainly depends on fixed capital investment and the output elasticity of human capital to gdp is the highest 2 fossil energy consumption could be reduced by increasing human capital investment based on the substitution elasticity of human capital for fossil energy simultaneously the technological progress of fixed capital and fossil energy is slower than that of non fossil energy which is conducive to the dual goals of economic growth and carbon emissions reduction 3 to reach these goals in 2020 the inputs of human capital fixed capital fossil energy and non fossil energy must increase by 12 05 16 89 1 29 times and 74 67 of the 2013 levels by 2020 4 this study analyzes the means and conditions for china to meet their goal in terms of these constraints and finds that technological progress is the key to meeting the economic growth and carbon emissions goals in 2020

a novel approach for analyzing the effectiveness of the r d capital for resource conservation comparative study on germany and uk electricity sectors abstract limited access to energy resources and increasing demand for mitigation of the environmental impacts have necessitated higher production efficiencies therefore the promotion of r d activities has been one of the main parts of national energy policies in this research work two methods are used for assessing the effectiveness of the r d capital on resource conservation first by developing the resource included knowledge production function of the energy sector and second through direct assessment of the functionality of resource productivity from r d capital based on official data provided by national statistical centers a comparative analysis has been conducted to examine the effectiveness of r d in the electricity generation sectors in the united kingdom and germany in these analyses non renewable exergy cost is used as an index of resource depletion and environmental burden it is shown that due to non economic energy transition policies the inclusion of the r d investment does not result in statistically meaningful elasticity of production for the r d capital however according to the second method it is shown that the r d investment in the united kingdom has been more effective in resource conservation than in germany possible reasons for such differences are discussed and recommendations for further investigations are presented

the economic power of energy and the need to integrate it with energy policy abstract drastic oil price changes the associated economic perturbations the coupling of energy conversion to entropy production in the form of emissions and the problems of climate change call for a reappraisal of energy in economic theory we review econometric growth analyses that do not weigh the production factors capital labor and energy by their cost shares their reproduction of economic growth in germany japan and the usa during the second half of 20th century is good according to these analyses energy s output elasticity which measures its economic power is much larger than energy s share in total factor cost while for labor s output elasticity and cost share the opposite is true this is consistent with profit and welfare optimization if hitherto ignored technological constraints are taken into account computing the motion of the german industrial sector in its cost mountain employing empirical data on factor quantities and prices supports these results the pivotal role of energy in economic growth provides leverage to energy policies that care about social well being and climate stability

the production and allocation of information as a good that is enhanced with increased use abstract information has some unique characteristics unlike most other goods and services it is neither rival use by one prevents use by others nor non rival use by one does not affect use by others but is enhanced with increased use or additive therefore a unique allocation system for both the production and consumption of information is needed under the current market based allocation system production of information is often limited through the exclusive rights produced by patents and copyrights this limits scientists ability to share and build on each other s knowledge we break the problem down into three separate questions 1 do markets generate the type of information most important for modern society 2 are markets the most appropriate institution for producing that information and 3 once information is produced are markets the most effective way of maximizing the social value of that information we conclude that systematic market failures make it unlikely that markets will generate the most important types of information while the unique characteristics of information reduce the cost effectiveness of markets in generating information and in maximizing its social value we then discuss alternative methods that do not have these shortcomings and that would lead to greater overall economic efficiency social justice and ecological sustainability these methods include monetary prizes publicly funded research from which the produced information is released into the public domain and status driven incentive structures like those in academia and the open source community

how capital regulation and other factors drive the role of shadow banking in funding short term business credit abstract this paper empirically analyzes how capital regulation risk and other factors altered the relative use of shadow banking funded short term business debt since the early 1960s results indicate that the share was affected over the long run not only by changing information and reserve requirement costs but also by shifts in relative regulation of bank versus nonbank credit sources such as basel i in 1990 and reregulation in 2010 in the short run the shadow bank share rose when deposit interest rate ceilings were binding on traditional banks the economic outlook improved or risk premia declined and fell when event risks arose

energy efficiency and economic growth a retrospective cge analysis for canada from 2002 to 2012 abstract the efficiency with which energy is used by firms and households has widespread impacts on economic activity which in turn has implications for environmental quality and energy security using a novel method that could be used for other jurisdictions we estimate the impact of energy efficiency improvements on canadian gdp employment economic structure and welfare from 2002 to 2012 we use a counterfactual back casting method with a sectorally and regionally disaggregated dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model in effect reverse calibrating the model from observed data to isolate the effects of energy efficiency we estimate that total energy efficiency improvements in canada during this period increased gdp by 2 0 0 19 yr employment by 2 5 0 24 yr and household welfare by about 1 5 0 15 yr additionally energy efficiency improvements reoriented economic structure from capital intense energy supply sectors to relatively labour intense manufacturing and services we find evidence of widespread rebound on an energy expenditure basis across most sectors and backfire where energy efficiency leads to absolute energy use increases in oil sands in situ extraction bitumen upgrading shale gas extraction lime production pulp paper and metal smelting but overall energy use is reduced by energy efficiency improvements over this period

can foreign direct investment harness energy consumption in china a time series investigation abstract this study assesses the long run relationship and short run dynamics between foreign direct investment fdi and energy consumption in china applying the bounds testing approach to annual data from 1982 to 2012 we find that a stable fdi energy nexus exists in the long run and a 1 increase in fdi reduces energy consumption by 0 21 however this study shows a positive association between fdi and energy consumption in the short run attributing to the dominance of the scale effect our results remain robust to different measurements and estimators it is suggested that the chinese government shall support the inward fdi in the tertiary and energy sectors and strengthen local absorptive capacities to fully internalize fdi related knowledge spillovers in energy conservation

on the instability of long run money demand and the welfare cost of inflation in the united states we evaluate the policy implications of measuring the welfare cost of inflation accounting for instabilities in the long run money demand for the u s over the period 1900 2013 we extend the analysis and reassess the results reported in lucas 2000 and ireland 2009 also considering the recent theoretical contributions of lucas and nicolini 2015 and berentsen et al 2015 breaks in the long run money demand give rise to regime dependent welfare cost estimates we find that the welfare cost is about 0 1 of annual income over 1976 2013 as compared to 0 8 over 1945 1975 overall these values are substantially lower than those reported in the literature

common trends and drivers of co2 emissions and employment a decomposition analysis in the industrial sector of selected european union countries the countries of the european union face the challenge of reversing the declining role of industry and achieving their targets for sustainable development combining industrial growth with fewer environmental repercussions and more jobs this paper uses a decomposition analysis in order to quantify the effect of the driving factors on two indicators of sustainable industrial development co2 emissions and employment in five european union countries during 2000 2011 the decomposition method applied is the log mean divisia index i and the models developed comprise some common or closely related driving factors the parallel investigation of the factors affecting the two indicators offers useful insights into relevant complementary and or antithetical effects the timeframe of the study is divided into two time periods before and after the start of the economic crisis 2000 2007 and 2007 2011 respectively this time division enables the evaluation of the impacts of the economic crisis directly on the drivers and indirectly on the two indicators it was deduced that in both time periods the two main drivers of industrial co2 emissions and employment were economic growth and resource intensity which counterbalance each other structural changes appeared to have a rather marginal effect even if the general tendency was the expansion of less energy labour intensive sectors finally changes in the fuel mix used in industry were beneficial to emissions reduction in all the examined countries especially in the second time period the results obtained show that the examined eu countries have not found a solid path towards sustainable and inclusive industrial development yet the stronger economies seem to move faster to this direction though

the dynamic links between energy consumption economic growth financial development and trade in china fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis abstract this study investigates the relationship between energy use and economic growth by incorporating financial development international trade and capital as important factors of production function in case of china over the period of 1971 2011 the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration was applied to examine long run relationship among the series while stationarity properties of the variables was tested by applying structural break test our empirical evidence confirmed long run relationship among the variables the results showed that energy use financial development capital exports imports and international trade have positive impact on economic growth the granger causality analysis revealed that unidirectional causal relationship running from energy use to economic growth financial development and energy use granger cause each other there is bidirectional causality between international trade and energy use the feedback relation exists between financial development and international trade there is also bidirectional causality exists between capital and energy demand financial development and economic growth and international trade and economic growth this paper makes significant contribution in energy economics and opens up new direction for policy makers to explore new and alternative sources of energy which would be helpful in meeting the rising demand of energy due to sustained rate of economic growth

the search for a stable money demand function a survey of the post 1973 literature phe question of whether the demnand function for money is stable is one of the most important recurring issues in the theory and application of macroeconomic policy what is being sought in a stable demand function is a set of necessary conditions for money to exert a predictable influence on the economy so that the central bank s control of the money supply can be a useful instrument of economic policy as such the notion of a stable demand function appears to involve three key elements e g john t boorman 1976 p 317 and david e w laidler 1977 pp 34 35 first the demand for money relation should be highly predictable in a statistical sense as measured by the usual goodness of fit statistics precision of estimated coefficients and presumably its ability to forecast accurately out of sample second a stable demand function for money has relatively few arguments a relationship that requires knowledge about a large number of variables in order to pin it down is in effect not predictable finally the variables that appear as arguments in the function should represent significant links to spending and economic activity in the real sector in sum a stable demand function for money means that the quantity of money is predictably related to a small set of key variables linking money to the real sector of the economy the importance of a stable money demand function for monetary policy can be illustrated with the standard is lm model in which interest rates and gnp are the endogenous variables in this context a stable demand function for money translates into a well defined relationship between money interest rates and gnp

long run income and interest elasticities of money demand in the united states econometric techniques designed to accommodate nonstationary data are used to reexamine the stability of interest and income elasticities of money demand in the united states estimates based on postwar monthly data reveal a stable relationship between m1 velocity and various measures of interest rates that proxy the opportunity cost of holding money balances tests for the existence of cointegration and methods used to estimate the income and interest elasticities are based on procedures prescribed by soren johansen 1988 corresponding error correction estimates offer insight as to the dynamics of the process that maintains the equilibrium relation between velocity and interest rates copyright 1991 by mit press

the economic growth enigma capital labour and useful energy abstract we show that the application of flexible semi parametric statistical techniques enables significant improvements in model fitting of macroeconomic models as applied to the explanation of the past economic growth since 1900 in us uk and japan the new results demonstrate quite conclusively the non linear relationships between capital labour and useful energy with economic growth they also indicate that output elasticities of capital labour and useful energy are extremely variable over time we suggest that these results confirm the economic intuition that growth since the industrial revolution has been driven largely by declining energy costs due to the discovery and exploitation of relatively inexpensive fossil fuel resources implications for the 21st century which are also discussed briefly by exploring the implications of an aceges based scenario of oil production are as follows a the provision of adequate and affordable quantities of useful energy as a pre condition for economic growth and b the design of energy systems as technology incubators for a prosperous 21st century

how can china reach its co2 intensity reduction targets by 2020 a regional allocation based on equity and development in late 2009 the chinese government committed to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product gdp by 40 to 45 of 2005 levels by 2020 this has raised the issue of how to allocate the co2 reduction target regionally to meet the national reduction target to meet this objective the following aspects may be taken into consideration equity principles common but differentiated responsibilities intensity reduction target fulfillment and economic difference and reduction potential among provinces this paper selects per capita gdp accumulated fossil fuel related co2 emissions and energy consumption per unit of industrial added value as indicators for emission reduction capacity responsibility and potential respectively based on these three indicators a comprehensive index is developed and an intensity allocation model constructed as decision makers may have different preferences when allocating the reduction burden we allocate different weights to the indicators analyzing the results using cluster analysis the following aspects may also be considered together with the national regional development strategy to determine how to share the burden the reduction potential of various regions implementation potential of the plans and promotion of a highly efficient low carbon economic development model

on the welfare cost of inflation and the recent behavior of money demand post 1980 u s data trace out a stable long run money demand relationship of cagan s semi log form between the m1 income ratio and the nominal interest rate with an interest semi elasticity of 1 79 integrating under this money demand curve yields estimates of the welfare cost of modest departures from friedman s zero nominal interest rate rule for the optimum quantity of money that are quite small the results suggest that the federal reserve s current policy which generates low but still positive rates of inflation provides an adequate approximation in welfare terms to the alternative of moving all the way to the friedman rule jel e31 e41 e52

coal consumption co2 emission and economic growth in china empirical evidence and policy responses this article investigates the relationship between coal consumption and income in china using both supply side and demand side frameworks cointegration and vector error correction modeling show that there is a unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to output in both the short and long run under the supply side analysis while there is also a unidirectional causality running from income to coal consumption in the short and long run under the demand side analysis the results also reveal that there is bi directional causality between coal consumption and pollutant emission both in the short and long run hence it is very difficult for china to pursue a greenhouse gas abatement policy through reducing coal consumption switching to greener energy sources might be a possible alternative in the long run

short run money demand abstract the conventional wisdom holds that the short run demand for money is unstable this paper challenges the conventional view by finding a stable demand for m1 in u s data from 1959 through 1993 the approach follows previous work in interpreting long run money demand as a cointegrating relation and it uses goldfeld s partial adjustment model to interpret short run dynamics the key innovation is the choice of the interest rate in the money demand function most previous work uses a short term market rate but this paper uses the average return on near monies the savings accounts and money market mutual funds that are close substitutes for m1 this choice helps rationalize the behavior of money demand in particular the increase in the volatility of velocity after 1980 is explained by increased volatility in the returns on near monies

more caution is needed when using life cycle assessment to determine energy return on investment eroi abstract cumulative energy demand ced estimates from life cycle assessments lcas are increasingly used to determine energy return on investment eroi but the difference in indicators can lead to a misclassification of energy flows in the assessment the core idea of eroi is to measure the relation of energy diverted from society to make energy available to society ced on the other hand includes forms of energy that are not appropriated by society such as fugitive methane emissions from oil wells as well as losses of heating value of coal during transport and storage such energy forms should be excluded from eroi failure to do so leads to results that are inconsistent with the intention of eroi and potentially misleading we demonstrate how this problem is at least partially rectifiable by adopting consistent energy accounting but also note that among the energy flows not appropriated by society occurring in ced not all flows can easily be removed further we point to inconsistencies in heating value assumptions in a widely used database that have misled analysts finally we argue that the differential weighting of primary energy forms in published ced based eroi work is unsubstantiated and should be reconsidered

the driving forces of china s energy use from 1992 to 2010 an empirical study of input output and structural decomposition analysis abstract the energy consumption in china has accelerated since the early 2000s and china became the largest energy consumer in the world by 2010 to examine the driving forces of china s energy use this paper conducts a structural decomposition analysis based on hybrid input output tables in addition we describe the framework of china s energy system by using two energy flow charts the results show that china s current energy use is investment led demand between 1992 and 2007 the three main final demand categories gross fixed capital formation household consumption and exports contributed approximately one third each to the changes of total energy use in china between 2007 and 2010 however three quarters of energy consumption changes came from investment activity only technological improvement saved approximately five percent of the total energy use annually during the periods of 1992 1997 1997 2002 and 2007 2010 in the period of 2002 2007 however its contribution dropped to only three percent p a due to the rise of the indirect energy requirement coefficient in the construction sector these results suggest that adjusting the final demand structure and improving energy efficiency further will meet china s energy challenges in the future

externalities in economies with imperfect information and incomplete markets this paper presents a simple general framework for analyzing externalities in economies with incomplete markets and imperfect infonnation by identifying the pecuniary effects of these externalities that net out the paper simplifies the problem of determining when tax interventions are pareto improving the approach indicates that such tax interventions almost always exist and that equilibria in situations of imperfect information are rarely constrained pareto optima it can also lead to simple tests based on readily observable indicators of the efficacy of particular tax policies in situations involving adverse selection signaling moral hazard incomplete contingent claims markets and queue rationing equilibria traditional discussions of externalities have emphasized the distinction between technological externalities in which the action of one individual or firm directly affects the utility or profit ofanother and pecuniary externalities in which one individual s or firm s actions affect another only through effects on prices while the presence of technological externalities imply in general that a competitive equilibrium may not be pareto efficient pecuniary externalities hy themselves are not a source of inefficiency the fact that prices change has of course important consequences there are both distributional and allocational effects but the distribution effects net out gains for example hy firms whose prices increase are precisely offset by losses e g to individuals who must pay higher prices and there are no welfare losses from the allocation effects as long as the price changes involved are small if firms are maximizing profits and individuals are maximizing utility both facing prices that correctly refiect opportunity costs then standard envelope theorem arguments imply that changes in profits or utility induced by changes in allocations resulting from any small change in prices are negligible

implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming abstract energy security and global warming are analysed as 21st century sustainability threats best estimates of future energy availability are derived as an energy reference case erc an explicit economic growth model is used to interpret the impact of the erc on economic growth the model predicts a divergence from 20th century equilibrium conditions in economic growth and socio economic welfare is only stabilised under optimistic assumptions that demands a paradigm shift in contemporary economic thought and focused attention from policy makers fossil fuel depletion also constrains the maximum extent of global warming carbon emissions from the erc comply nominally with the b1 scenario which is the lowest emissions case considered by the ipcc the ipcc predicts a temperature response within acceptance limits of the global warming debate for the b1 scenario the carbon feedback cycle used in the ipcc models is shown as invalid for low emissions scenarios and an alternative carbon cycle reduces the temperature response for the erc considerably compared to the ipcc predictions our analysis proposes that the extent of global warming may be acceptable and preferable compared to the socio economic consequences of not exploiting fossil fuel reserves to their full technical potential

a comparative study on decoupling relationship and influence factors between china s regional economic development and industrial energy related carbon emissions abstract to study the relationship between china s regional economic development and industrial carbon emission reveal the major influencing factors and mechanism of carbon emission change in all regions and provide theoretical evidence for governments to formulate emission reduction strategies and policies big data analysis and the tapio extended model were adopted to quantitatively analyse the decoupling relationship between carbon emission and economic growth in eight major regions of china between 1996 and 2012 logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi was also applied to decompose the main factors affecting carbon emission change in all regions the results show that 1 the proportions of industrial energy related to carbon emissions in central china and the beijing tianjin region decreased year by year while the opposite was the case in coastal areas of northern china furthermore the proportions in other regions basically remained unchanged 2 a weak decoupling relation between industry energy carbon emission and economic growth was found in most regions except in northwest china during the period 1996 2000 southwest china south and north coastal regions during the period 2001 2005 beijing and tianjin during the period 2010 2012 energy consumption decoupling factors exerted a consistent positive effect on industry energy carbon emission decoupling with decoupling impact greater than emission factors 3 the overall level of carbon emission reduction technology in china was low and backwards and limited contributions have been made to economic growth and industry energy carbon emission decoupling development emphases of decoupling should be put on energy saving technology promotion industry structure upgrading and energy structure improvement in the future 4 economic intensity effect has exerted the most powerful positive influence on carbon emissions except in developed areas and the positive effect was weaker than that in other regions

sweep programs the fall of m1 and rebirth of the medium of exchange this paper investigates the effect of sweep programs on m1 using dynamic simulations of money demand over 1994 2000 the postsample period constitutes when sweep programs have been in effect all models generate predictions systematically above reported m1 using data on newly initiated programs test findings indicate that sweeps account for the overprediction within the conventional money demand model with a long term interest rate we construct a medium of exchange measure m1s equal to m1 plus estimated holdings of sweep balances m1s velocity compares favorably with that of broader aggregates evidence indicates cointegration within m1s money demand

sectoral money demand and the great disinflation in the united states estimates of the welfare costs of inflation based on bailey 1956 are typically computed using aggregate money demand models yet the behavior of money demand may vary across sectors thus the impact on welfare of inflation regime shifts may differ between households and firms we specifically investigate the sectoral welfare implications of the shift from the great inflation to the present regime of low and stable inflation for this purpose we estimate different functional specifications of money demand for u s households and nonfinancial firms using flow of fund data covering four decades we find that the benefits were significant for both sectors

a new database on human capital stock in developing and industrial countries sources methodology and results abstract the paper describes the techniques and data adopted for the construction of a new series of estimates of the stock of education in 85 countries over 28 years 1960 1987 the series are built from enrollment data using the perpetual inventory method adjusted for mortality estimates are corrected for grade repetition among school goers and country specific drop out rates for primary and secondary students enrollment data series used start as far back as 1930 for most countries and even earlier for others this reduces the need for backward extrapolation of enrollments to provide the initial estimates of the investment inventory

emissions intensity targeting from china s 12th five year plan to its copenhagen commitment china is currently the world s largest single source of fossil fuel related co2 emissions in response to pressure from the international community and in recognition of its role in global climate change mitigation the chinese government has announced a series of climate policy commitments in both the copenhagen accord and its domestic 12th 5 year plan to gradually reduce emissions intensity by 2020 emissions intensity reduction commitments differ significantly from emission level reduction commitments that are commonly adopted by developed economies in this paper we investigate the economic implications of china s recent commitments to reduce emissions intensity and highlight the complexities involved in modelling intensity targets under uncertainty using g cubed an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model of the world economy we show that china s emissions intensity targets could be achieved with a range of low and high growth emissions level trajectories corresponding to low and high growth gdp scenarios which lead to different welfare consequences

energy human capital and economic growth in asia pacific countries evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis this paper examines the cointegration and causal relationship between energy consumption and economic development in 16 asia pacific countries over the period 1970 2011 using the augmented production function which considers not only physical capital and labor but also human capital this is likely among the first of the energy growth nexus literature to include human capital in the multivariate framework using recently developed panel unit root test and cointegration test that allow for cross sectional dependence this paper finds a long run cointegrating relationship between these variables continuously updated fully modified cup fm estimates are subsequently compared with panel heterogeneous fully modified ordinary least squares fmols results to confirm the importance of accounting for interdependence across countries the bootstrap panel granger causality test results find economic growth granger cause energy use in the region but the relationship varies for individual countries

results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates abstract we find strong evidence of a stable money demand relationship for mzm and m2m through the 1990s though the m2 relation breaks down somewhere around 1990 evidence has been accumulating that the disturbance is well characterized as a permanent upward shift in m2 velocity which began around 1990 and was largely over by 1994 taken together our results support the hypothesis that households permanently reallocated a portion of their wealth from time deposits to mutual funds although this reallocation may have been induced by depository restructuring we argue that the substitution could be explained by appropriately measured opportunity cost

changes in carbon intensity in china empirical findings from 1980 2003 china experienced sustainable rapid economic growth over the period 1980 2003 but at the same time energy related carbon intensity showed a downward trend it begs the question therefore what factors were driving this decline in carbon intensity and will this decline be maintained in future moreover what measures can be adopted to ensure a continual decline in carbon intensity these questions led to increased research in the factors governing co2 emission in china this paper quantifies the driving force behind china s primary energy related carbon intensity and measures the material production sectors final energy related carbon intensity our results show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline of energy related carbon intensity was the reduction in real energy intensity however policies that focus only on the decline in energy intensity are insufficient to further decrease carbon intensity the change of primary energy mix can improve the decline of carbon intensity this should focus on the material production sectors development strategies and final energy use greater emphasis should be given to secondary industry which needs national and regional governments policy support

energy consumption and economic growth the experience of african countries revisited abstract the aim of this paper is to re examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for seventeen african countries in a multivariate framework by including labor and capital as additional variables we apply the variance decomposition analysis due to pesaran and shin pesaran m h and shin y generalised impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models economics letters 1998 58 17 29 to evaluate how important is the causal impact of energy consumption on economic growth relative to labor and capital the results of our multivariate modified granger causality analysis due to toda and yamamoto toda h y and yamamoto t statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process journal of econometrics 1995 66 225 250 tend to reject the neutrality hypothesis for the energy income relationship in fifteen out of the seventeen countries in contrast results of our variance decomposition analyses show that in eleven out of the seventeen countries energy is no more than a contributing factor to output growth and not an important one when compared to capital and labor labor and capital are the most important factors in output growth in fifteen out of the seventeen countries however these results should be interpreted with care as they may not be sufficiently robust enough to support the inference that energy consumption plays a minor role in the economic growth of african countries

the stability of long run money demand in five industrial countries abstract this study provides strong evidence for the stability of long run demand functions for narrowly defined money m1 in five industrial countries u s japan canada u k and west germany using post war quarterly data evidence of stability is examined using two different estimation techniques and through a formal test of parameter constancy designed specifically for cointegrating vectors in the majority of these countries the key to stability is the imposition of a unitary long run income elasticity that is rarely rejected by the data

optimal strategies for carbon reduction at dual levels in china based on a hybrid nonlinear grey prediction and quota allocation model abstract in this research a hybrid nonlinear grey prediction and quota allocation model hngp qam wasdeveloped for supporting optimal planning of china s carbon intensity reduction at both departmentaland provincial levels in 2020 at such dual levels hngp qam can not only help forecast carbon intensityand its uctuations over the concerned period but also facilitate the identi cation of china s carbonintensity reduction target in 2020 and the corresponding quotas for minimizing the total abatement cost two scenarios were developed based on multiple governmental policies and allocation schemes amongprovinces and departments the results showed that the total abatement cost would be 92 07 and98 93 10 9 as well as 180 57 and 194 19 10 9 rmb it is another shortname for china yuan for pro vincial and departmental allocation schemes under the reduction ratios of 40 and 45 respectively furthermore the west the east and the central china would be allocated the emission assignments thatwould be accounting for 48 53 28 26 and 23 21 of the total national emission reduction respectively the obtained results were particularly useful for multi level governments in providing information toidentify the carbon intensity reduction target conducting emission reduction assignments amongprovinces and departments as well as supporting relevant policy making the results also suggested thatthe developed hngp qam be applicable to similar engineering and planning problems 2014 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

the vermont common assets trust an institution for sustainable just and efficient resource allocation both private and public sectors have failed to adequately provide critical ecosystem goods and services or an equitable distribution of wealth and income to address this problem the vermont legislature is considering the creation of a vermont common assets trust vcat that would make the state s atmosphere aquifers and other resources created by nature or by society as a whole the common property of all vermonters present and future under the trust a board of trustees would have the legal obligation to manage these assets for the benefit of all vermonters including future generations this paper first explains why certain resources are likely to be managed more sustainably fairly and efficiently as common property than as private property it then discusses mechanisms for integrating assets into the trust estimates of potential revenue from a vcat suggest that it could eliminate the state budget deficit contribute to a better distribution of wealth and resources and help address critical ecological problems survey results suggest that a vcat is politically feasible the vcat promises to be an important pilot project that could later be scaled up to a national or global level

does human capital matter for energy consumption in china this article investigates the dynamic relationship between human capital and energy consumption using chinese provincial data over the period 1990 2010 considering for cross sectional dependence and parameter heterogeneity across space and over time we identify a significant and negative human capital energy consumption relationship in china specifically we find that a 1 increase in human capital reduces energy consumption by a range between 0 18 and 0 45 furthermore this negative relationship can be attributed to stronger accumulation of post school human capital in eastern china this finding suggests that energy conservation in china could be achieved by improving post school human capital components such as on the job training experience and learning by doing

u s narrow money for the twenty first century i introduction though money retains its fundamental role in a market economy money measures have been noticeably de emphasized within the conduct of u s monetary policy the federal open market committee fomc stopped reporting annual growth objectives for monetary aggregates although it states that money supply still has value for gauging economic conditions board of governors 2000 however a growing body of research calls for returning monetary aggregates to a more prominent role within monetary policy meltzer 1998 asserts that the view of persistent money growth as being the source of inflation is again widely accepted perhaps more firmly held by some central bank governors now than at any time in the twentieth century nelson 2002 provides evidence that base money has a significant effect on output relative to potential in the united states and united kingdom even after controlling for the short term real interest rate nelson 2003 argues that money growth governs the mean and dynamics of inflation in present day new keynesian models leeper and roush 2003 find evidence of an essential role for m2 within the transmission of monetary policy even after controlling for the nominal interest rate 1 this article focuses on the role of sweep programs in properly measuring narrow money in a sweep program banks move a portion of funds from customer demand deposits dds or other checkable deposits ocds into instruments with zero statutory reserve requirements we examine the effects of two types of sweep programs in the united states retail sweep programs and commercial demand deposit sweep programs narrow transactions based money historically has played a key role in the conduct of monetary policy as hafer and wheelock 2001 explain m1 served as the measure of money within the st louis model although monetarists had long been divided over whether a narrow or broad aggregate was the preferable target for monetary policy the fomc appeared to focus on m1 during the 1970s and early 1980s publishing their target ranges for money growth in terms of m1 hafer and wheelock 2001 though state that deviations in m1 velocity from its upward trend beginning in the early 1980s caused instability within the st louis model hoffman and rasche 1991 and hoffman et al 1995 place dummy variables in their vector error correction mechanisms to capture observed shifts in m1 velocity what attention remains on the money supply seems to be focused on broad rather than narrow aggregates but the broad aggregates have not escaped difficulties duca 2000 and hafer and wheelock 2001 document a deviation of m2 velocity from its long run trend in the early 1990s sometimes characterized as the missing m2 episode duca and vanhoose 2004 state that one response was to replace m2 with mzm consistent with the view that heightened substitution between small time deposits and mutual funds other than money market mutual funds mmmfs largely accounted for the instability in m2 velocity but as they go on to discuss m2 and mzm velocity encountered problems in the early 2000s plunging in ways not in line with opportunity cost variables duca and van hoose 2004 state that broader aggregates may have become more vulnerable to portfolio substitution involving stock and mutual funds other than mmmf narrow money has also been used extensively in examining money demand a sizable body of research has emerged that empirically investigates the demand for m1 especially using cointegration techniques hoffman and rasche 1991 hoffman et al 1995 dutkowsky and atesoglu 2001 and ball 2001 provide evidence of a stable long run money demand equation using m1 ball 2002 generates further support with m1 and establishes a correspondence between the partial adjustment formulation and the vector error correction model yet research and policy making using narrow money is currently being hampered by the lack of an accurate measure of transactions based money

identifying the impacts of human capital on carbon emissions in pakistan abstract at present carbon emissions reduction is a very important challenge all over the world improvement of human capital helps to reduce carbon emissions this paper studies the long and short term effects of human capital on carbon emissions in pakistan from 1971 to 2014 we employ an autoregressive distributed lag model and the vector error correction model to analyze the co integration and direction of causalities between human capital and carbon emissions respectively results show that a significant long term relationship exists between human capital and carbon emissions improvement of human capital will reduce carbon emissions without decreasing economic growth granger causality test results describe the bidirectional causality that exists between human capital and carbon emissions in the long term and no causality in the short term human capital and economic growth have feedback effects in the long term and no effect in the short term the results of this study show that improvement in human capital through education will help carbon emissions reduction in the long term this study will help policymakers devise a comprehensive strategy to reduce carbon emissions through improvement of human capital

money demand function estimation by nonlinear cointegration conventionally the money demand function is estimated using a regression of the logarithm of money demand on either the interest rate or the logarithm of the interest rate this equation is presumed to be a cointegrating regression in this paper we aim to combine the logarithmic specification which models the liquidity trap better than a linear model with the assumption that the interest rate itself is an integrated process the proposed technique is robust to serial correlation in the errors for the usa our new technique results in larger coefficient estimates than previous research suggested and produces superior out of sample prediction copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

the inclusive wealth index a critical appraisal abstract among recent high profile propositions to revise national accounts and to provide new indicators of sustainability and well being the inclusive wealth framework and the related inclusive wealth index iwi undoubtedly stand out as one of the most promising endeavours built up at the confluence of welfare development and sustainability economics the indicator has been designed to bring information about the wealth of nations and their sustainability in a comprehensive way the inclusive wealth framework is nevertheless fraught with limitations due to questionable theoretical assumptions gaps in data availability unrealistic assumptions about the future and inability to account for distributional issues we propose a non exhaustive critical appraisal of the index and its underlying framework we conclude that these limitations undermine its capacity to fulfil the requirements of a satisfactory sustainability indicator we argue that most problems lie in the substantial discrepancy between the inclusive ambition of the indicator and the scarce means to implement it whereas the interconnectedness of the various assets that constitute wealth as well as their complex evolution through time are acknowledged by the proponents of inclusive wealth the way the iwi is computed is rather a mere addition of layers of actuarial like monetary values for a not inclusive yet range of capital assets caution is thus warranted while using such an approach and shorter range alternatives to pursue similar goals are proposed

an empirical analysis of the green paradox in china from the perspective of fiscal decentralization abstract while it is generally recognized that the introduction of environmental policy can effectively control carbon emissions the green paradox hypothesis puts forth a new warning about the validity of this policy s implementation this study uses panel data on 29 chinese provinces from 1995 to 2012 to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on the functional mechanisms of environmental policy while controlling for the spatial correlations of carbon emission the empirical results indicate that environmental policy alone can achieve the objective of reducing carbon emissions however the chinese style fiscal decentralization makes the environmental policy significantly promote carbon emissions leading to a green paradox moreover we find that the impact of fiscal decentralization on environmental policy varies greatly among different geographical regions and the direct controlled municipalities in addition our study confirms the spatial correlations in china s carbon emissions by using a spatial integration term finally we recommend that emission reduction efforts should be incorporated into the local government s performance evaluation system to improve the institutional environment further differentiated environmental policies and measures should be considered for different provinces to maximize the emission reduction potential

sweep programs and optimal monetary aggregation abstract this paper examines the admissibility of monetary aggregate groupings for the us over 1993 2001 based upon weak separability we investigate the impact of retail and commercial demand deposit sweep programs on the separability of monetary asset groupings weak separability is tested using the swofford whitney and fleissig whitney tests we use varian s measurement error adjustment procedure to eliminate violations of the generalized axiom of revealed preference garp when funds from both retail and commercial demand deposit sweep programs are placed within checkable deposits all groupings narrow and broad pass garp and weak separability for groupings based on conventional money measures tests tend to favor broad aggregates

sustainable development modelling for the energy sector sustainable residential energy consumption involves a complex socially embedded and socially constructed market a system dynamics approach has been used to explore the short medium and long term impact of different national consumer oriented energy efficiency policies in the residential building sector in this paper the system dynamics model has been validated by a case study using historical data from a subsidy scheme and accompanying policy measures in latvia results obtained by the validity tests showed that the model generated behaviour is consistent with available data and is capable of generating the right behaviour for the right reasons simulation results show that national energy efficiency goals cannot be met by 2016 and the absence of major consumer oriented policy tools slows down the diffusion process of energy efficiency projects it also highlights that system dynamics has a high potential to be used for sustainable end use energy policy planning at both national and sub sectoral levels