earnings and pension compensation the effect of eligibility pension compensation is shown to rise with age and tenure until the worker becomes eligible to receive benefits at this point pension compensation drops sharply if workers are paid their marginal product in each period earnings grow at a lower rate prior to eligibility but must increase when the worker reaches the age of eligibility this hypothesis is tested using data from the retirement history study and earnings are found to rise significantly after eligibility this finding supports the concept of spot market compensation and is in direct conflict with the predictions of lazear type lifetime contracts

tax and spend or spend and tax empirical evidence from greece spain portugal and ireland the paper examines empirically the relationship between government revenues and expenditures in four european countries greece spain ireland and portugal in relative terms all four may be considered as the poorest members of the european union yet they present a fairly diverse picture as far as their macroeconomic performance and fiscal position is concerned the empirical findings from cointegration and causality tests that are reported here indicate that in the case of greece and ireland tax and spending decisions are taken simultaneously by the fiscal authority the tax and spend hypothesis is supported in the case of spain while absence of any causal ordering between government expenditure and tax revenues has been established for portugal

the long run relationship between productivity and capital abstract using panel cointegration techniques we show a cointegrating relationship exists between capital and productivity in 446 manufacturing industries panel dols and fmols estimates reveal that innovations to productivity increase and granger cause capital movements

global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint a multicointegration approach abstract this paper analyzes the external solvency of a group of 23 oecd countries for the period 1970 2012 the empirical strategy adopted underlines the increasing importance of the financial channel for the external adjustment as proposed in gourinchas and rey 2007 we unify the traditional approaches to testing for external sustainability considering the stock flow system created by the variables representing the external relationships of an open economy external sustainability is tested using several types of cointegration and multicointegration tests the results obtained point to weak sustainability in the flows analysis whereas some degree of strong sustainability is found for up to six countries in the stock flow approach among these countries we find both non european economies such as japan and new zealand and euro area members especially those with more restricted access to financing in the international markets

social security in panama a multiperiod analysis of income distribution abstract a unique multiperiod data set is used to look at the income distribution effects of the retirement portion of the social security system of panama while it is clear that the system is an important source of income for workers it is argued that its true redistributive importance is greatly exaggerated using a multiperiod view it is found that previously high wage and urban workers are disproportionately represented among current recipients it is also argued that social security has substantially reduced the work effort of these workers hence the appropriateness of the present social security system is questioned on both equity and efficiency grounds

modelling long run comovements in equity markets a flexible approach abstract international equity markets linkages are characterized by nonlinear dependence and asymmetries we investigate shifts in long run comovements in stock markets by means of an interrupted markov switching cointegration specification this flexible approach allow us to study to what extent documented changes in global integration are permanent or whether market linkages are subject to changes using an illustrative sample from 1980 to 2012 for usa uk and hong kong stock price indices we find evidence of interrupted cointegration across these markets between may 1997 and april 2002 which is consistent with the decoupling of stock prices from fundamentals during the dot com bubble

the determinants of australian trade union membership summary this paper investigates the determinants of trade union membership in australia using the engle and granger 1987 theory of co integrated economic variables applying the theory of co integration yields a model of union membership which can be interpreted as distinguishing between long run and business cycle determinants of union membership the principal long run determinant of union membership is found to be the level of employment disaggregated by industry classification business cycle variables the real wage and the change in unemployment are also shown to influence movements in union density these findings are consistent with recent studies which have attributed the decline in union membership in australia since the early 1980s to the changing composition of employment and movements in the rate of unemployment

modelling money demand in germany in this paper an empirically stable money demand model for m3 in germany is presented the sample period 1975 94 includes german unification it is shown that this development has not substantially destabilized money demand parameter stability is extensively tested and not rejected applying encompassing tests this model encompasses two recent models but is not encompassed by them exogeneity of the explanatory variables is discussed and tested along the definitions given in engle hendry and richard 1983 there is evidence that inflation and long term interest rates are super exogenous with respect to the parameters of the demand for m3 model this result and the empirical long run money demand function presented in this paper may affect the applicability of the so called p star concept for german m3 1998 john wiley sons ltd

the energy and co2 emissions impact of renewable energy development in china the authors are grateful for the support provided by the national key technology r d program from ministry of science and technology of grant no 2012bac20b07 we acknowledge the support of the national key technology r d program and the institute for energy environment and economy at tsinghua university which is supporting tianyu qi s doctoral research as a visiting scholar at the massachusetts institute of technology we acknowledge the support of eni icf and shell initial founding sponsors of the china energy and climate project this consortium of sponsors has provided support for researchers in the mit joint program to engage in a five year program of research focused on china none of the sponsoring organizations played a role in the study design collection analysis or interpretation of the data used for this study nor did they influence our decisions to submit the article for publication and all errors are our own

tests for parameter instability in regressions with i 1 processes this article derives the large sample distributions of lagrange multiplier lm tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models the fully modified estimator of phillips and hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends the test statistics considered include the supf test of quandt as well as the lm tests of nyblom and of nabeya and tanaka it is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes that is if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends the distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent it is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered an unstable intercept so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration the tests are applied to three data se

long run estimates of money demand new evidence from east asian countries and the presence of structural breaks conventionally the money demand function is estimated using a linear regression of the logarithm of money demand on a number of variables in this article we aim to estimate the long run properties of money demand specification for a number of east asian economies and within a panel framework with the presence of structural breaks various country specific coefficients are allowed to capture inter country heterogeneities consistent with theoretical postulates it is found that a the demand for money in the long run positively responds to real income and inversely to the interest rate spread inflation the real effective exchange rate and the us real interest rate b the long run income elasticity is greater than unity and c both the currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses hold the empirical findings in this article can provide useful policy guidelines to the east asian countries central banks in their quest for price stability if one of the primary objectives of these countries

an econometric study of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in turkey abstract this study attempts to empirically examine the dynamic causal relationships between carbon emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of turkey using the time series data for the period 1960 2005 this research tests the interrelationship between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure the bounds test results indicate that there exist two forms of long run relationships between the variables in the case of first form of long run relationship carbon emissions are determined by energy consumption income and foreign trade in the case of second long run relationship income is determined by carbon emissions energy consumption and foreign trade an augmented form of granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables the long run relationship of co2 emissions energy consumption income and foreign trade equation is also checked for the parameter stability the empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the carbon emissions in turkey which is followed by energy consumption and foreign trade moreover there exists a stable carbon emissions function the results also provide important policy recommendations

a survey of china s low carbon application practice opportunity goes with challenge abstract the steady and maintainable energy supply for human development provides the strong motivation which is necessary to every country in the whole world the high strength carbon emissions has brought great harm to the earth since industrialization before hundreds of years and the global warming and extreme weather cause humans to develop low carbon economy low carbon economy has become a consensus of the entire human race no matter developed countries or developing countries which is the combination of the lifestyle changing and production structure basic changing and technical innovation it is well known that china is the largest developing country in the world with the rapid industrialization of country energy demand of chinese society is increasing in an incredible speed china has become the second largest energy consumer and the first carbon emissions country at present furthermore chinese energy structure and production methods are very inappropriate which cannot guarantee the sustainable development of china in future and therefore actively developing low carbon economy is the only road to realize china s economic development mode change and sustainable development which is supported by central government and local governments low carbon economy for china is not only an opportunity but also a great challenge firstly this paper discusses the current situation of energy supply and energy structure in china secondly current situation of units energy consumption in china is discussed thirdly some application practices of low carbon are described such as low carbon traffic low carbon city and low carbon village then the policies and law of china central government and local governments are described in the following paragraphs at the end the developmental prospect of low carbon economy in future china and the development barriers and recommendations are introduced respectively

testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination new evidence from a century of data abstract we test the long run monetary model of exchange rate determination for a collection of 14 industrialized countries using data spanning the late nineteenth or early twentieth century to the late twentieth century interestingly we find support for a simple form of the long run monetary model in over half of the countries we consider for these countries we estimate vector error correction models to investigate the adjustment process to the long run monetary equilibrium in the spirit of meese and rogoff journal of international economics 14 1983 3 24 we also compare nominal exchange rate forecasts based on monetary fundamentals to those based on a naive random walk model

deliberating on renewable and sustainable energy policies in china abstract in order to realize the sustainable development of country and society many countries have established their renewable energy law and development strategy no matter developed countries or developing countries it is well known that china is the largest developing country in the world and the per capita gdp ranks more than 100 however the total gdp ranks the second due to the huge population amount and just behind usa certainly the total energy consumption amount is huge and the big energy demand has brought a serious of environmental problems such as acid rain water and soil pollution and resource exhaustion etc fortunately china central government has regarded the serious question to realize the sustainable development in future the renewable energy law has been established in 2005 firstly china s energy situation and existing environmental questions in past years is introduced in this paper secondly the distribution and the application practice of different renewable energy were introduced then china s renewable energy policy is detailed introduced in the following section the next section discusses the existing questions based on these discussions the development barriers and recommendations are introduced respectively

the impact of economic growth on co2 emissions in azerbaijan abstract this paper investigates the relationship between the economic growth and co2 emissions in azerbaijan a cointegration analysis is conducted over the period 1992 2013 for getting more robust results johansen ardlbt dols fmols and ccr methods are employed to explore cointegration and estimate long run coefficients we use cubic quadratic and linear specifications and conclude that the last one is an adequate representation for the impact of the economic growth on co2 emissions in azerbaijan the results from the different cointegration methods are consistent with each other and show that the economic growth has a positive and statistically significant impact on the emissions in the long run implying that the ekc hypothesis does not hold for azerbaijan the income elasticity of co2 emissions using different methods is found to be between 0 7 and 0 8 moreover we find that any short run imbalance can be adjusted towards the long run equilibrium path within less than one year the paper concludes that measures to increase energy efficiency carbon pricing instruments in production and international domestic trade activities and nationwide social awareness programs to instruct about the negative consequences of pollution can be considered as relevant environmental policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions

the implicit pension contract developments and new directions pension economics has emerged as a separate literature over the past decade some of the early pension work was devoted to financial issues including implications of pensions for savings rates and portfolio allocation most new developments however have stemmed from research surrounding labor markets this research has led to an implicit contract theory of pensions a theory that has pensions playing a more complicated role in worker firm relation than heretofore realized the theory explains much of economic behavior in labor markets and bridges a gap between labor and financial literatures this essay describes the genesis for these ideas and traces some of the most important research results in the area an equal amount of spece is devoted to a consideration of likely directions for future research

a chinese sky trust distributional impacts of carbon charges and revenue recycling in china abstract the introduction of carbon charges on the use of fossil fuels in china would have a progressive impact on income distribution this outcome which contrasts to the regressive distributional impact found in most studies of carbon charges in industrialized countries is driven primarily by differences between urban and rural expenditure patterns if carbon revenues were recycled on an equal per capita basis via a sky trust the progressive impact would be further enhanced low income mainly rural households would receive more in sky trust dividends than they pay in carbon charges and high income mainly urban households would pay more than they receive in dividends thus a chinese sky trust would contribute to both lower fossil fuel consumption and greater income equality

electricity consumption employment and real income in australia evidence from multivariate granger causality tests this paper examines the relationship between electricity consumption employment and real income in australia within a cointegration and causality framework we find that electricity consumption employment and real income are cointegrated and that in the long run employment and real income granger cause electricity consumption while in the short run there is weak unidirectional granger causality running from income to electricity consumption and from income to employment

does outlawing mandatory retirement reduce public pension benefit claim exploiting the 2011 abolishment of the mandatory retirement provision that had allowed employers to force retirement of their 65 or older employees in the uk this paper estimates the effect of out

the role of natural gas consumption and trade in tunisia s output this paper examines the impact of natural gas consumption real gross fixed capital formation and trade on the real gdp in case of tunisia over the period of 1980 2010 we used auto regressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach to test the existence of long run relationship between the variables the vector error correction method vecm granger approach is applied to test the direction of causal relation between the series our findings indicate the existence of long run relationship among the variables natural gas consumption real gross fixed capital formation and trade add in economic growth natural gas consumption real gross fixed capital formation and real trade granger cause real gdp these findings open up new insights for policy makers to formulate a comprehensive energy policy to sustain economic growth for long run

residential electricity demand dynamics in turkey abstract this article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1968 2005 using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration the computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and as expected the long run elasticities are greater than the short run elasticities an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity income price and urbanization in the long run causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income price and urbanization to residential energy but the short run causality tests are inconclusive the parameter stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested the results of these tests display a stable pattern

the evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in south africa a kalman filter application abstract in south africa the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been of major concern additional to past problems the 2008 electricity crisis made the solution crucial after its damaging consequences to the economy the disagreement on the need and consequences of the continuous electricity price hikes worsens the situation to contribute to the recent electricity debate this paper proposes a time varying price elasticity of demand for electricity the sensitivity of electricity consumption to price fluctuations changes throughout the years the main purpose of this study is the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity in south africa during the period 1980 2005 by employing an advanced econometric technique the kalman filter apart from the decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption 71 8 in the 1990s and 94 5 in the 2000s in average our results conclude to an important finding the higher the prices for example in the 1980s the higher the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations thus further increases of the electricity prices may lead to changes in the behaviour of electricity consumers focusing their efforts on improving their efficiency levels by introducing demand side management techniques or even turning to other sources of cheaper energy

intertemporal substitution imports and the permanent income model abstract we examine the importance of intertemporal substitution in u s import consumption using a model of permanent income that allows for random preference shocks and additive separability the latter feature allows us to take two estimation approaches in the first approach we show that there is a cointegrating restriction imposed by the first order conditions of the model which allows us to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of imported and domestic goods consumption in the second approach we estimate the euler equations using generalized method of moments this approach however requires us to place some restrictive assumptions on the model that are not required for the first estimation approach thus the two different approaches allow an assessment of the severity of these restrictive assumptions which are often imposed in the literature

a long march perspective on tobacco use in canada in this paper we present a model of tobacco demand in canada with a view to establishing if price and tax policy on the one hand or educational regulatory and demographic influences on the other have been primarily responsible for the substantial drop in consumption since 1980 we address some methodological and econometric issues that have escaped the attention of some analysts to this point using data for the period 1972 2000 we find that non price developments have had a strong deterrent effect and that the price elasticity of demand is now lower than even the recently obtained low estimates propose these findings have strong public policy content jel classification i12 c13 c22 une perspective de longue haleine sur l usage du tabac au canada dans ce memoire on presente un modele de la demande de tabac au canada en vue d etablir laquelle des deux strategies d une part la politique de prix et d imposition de taxes et d autre part les influences de l education de la reglementation ainsi que les changements demographiques a ete davantage responsable de la chute importante dans la consommation du tabac depuis 1980 le texte examine certains problemes methodologiques et econometriques qui ont jusqu ici echappea l attention des analystes a l aide de donnees pour la periode 1972 2000 on montre que les facteurs qui n ont rien a voir avec le prix ont eu un fort effet dissuasif et que l elasticite de la demande par rapport au prix est maintenant plus faible que les faibles elasticites suggerees par certaines etudes recentes ces resultats ont une grande importance pour la politique publique

global economic activity and crude oil prices a cointegration analysis abstract this paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity the kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity based on a supply demand framework and the cointegration theory we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the kilian economic index and a trade weighted us dollar index and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the kilian economic index through both long run equilibrium conditions and short run impacts we also develop an empirically stable data coherent and single equation error correction model ecm which has sensible economic properties empirical results based on the ecm show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the kilian economic index is a relatively drawn out process

intertemporal substitution in import demand and habit formation to study non durable import demand we extend previous work done by clarida 1994 and ceglowski 1991 by considering a two good version of the lifecycle model in which we introduce time non separability in the households preferences the model is estimated using quarterly data for the usa and france using the information contained in the observed stochastic and deterministic trends we derive a cointegration restriction used to estimate curvature parameters of the instantaneous utility function the remaining parameters are estimated in a second step by gmm the constancy of the different parameters is investigated in both the long and the short run habit formation turns out to be an important factor of import demand c 1998 john wiley sons ltd

effects of exchange rate variations on bilateral trade with a vehicle currency evidence from china and singapore abstract using a testable gravity type bilateral trade model derived from an underlying demand and supply model this paper explores the effects of exchange rate variations on bilateral trade in an exchange rate regime with a vehicle currency the introduction of the vehicle currency allows us to figure out whether variations in the trade volume due to the fluctuation of the bilateral exchange rate are primarily due to changes in demand or in supply or both more specifically in this theoretical framework the appreciation of one country s currency against the vehicle currency is expected to promote its imports but the effect of revaluation of the country s currency against the vehicle currency on its exports is ambiguous moreover high volatility of the exchange rate of one country s currency against the vehicle currency is also expected to depress its import volume from the empirical point of view the decomposition of the bilateral exchange rate of two currencies into the bilateral rates of these two currencies against the vehicle currency provides a new alternative to avoid the econometric problem of potential reverse causality in assessing the effects through compiling a novel monthly bilateral trade dataset between china and singapore over 21 years or 252 months we empirically test the predictions of our model which get robust support from the results

cointegration in panel data with structural breaks and cross section dependence summary the power of standard panel cointegration statistics may be affected by misspecification errors if structural breaks in the parameters generating the process are not considered in addition the presence of cross section dependence among the panel units can distort the empirical size of the statistics we therefore design a testing procedure that allows for both structural breaks and cross section dependence when testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration the paper proposes test statistics that can be used when one or both features are present we illustrate our proposal by analysing the pass through of import prices on a sample of european countries copyright 2013 john wiley sons ltd

the effects of macroeconomic stability on foreign trade an analysis for spain 1986 2000 two main factors underlie the rebirth of interest in the study of the influence of the real exchange rate on trade the reduction of its volatility and the current trend towards price stability the objective of this study is to analyse the effects of the process of nominal convergence required of the european member states for the fulfilment of monetary integration on foreign trade flows the case of spain which is especially interesting in this context is studied for the period 1986 to 2000 the results of estimating the aggregate functions of the export and import of goods shows how macroeconomic stability has altered the behaviour of trade with respect to the two basic determinants income and prices how it has caused a significant structural change in the real exchange rate and finally how it has laid the explanatory bases for transactions in the twenty first century with the single currency the euro

exploring consumption based asset pricing model with stochastic trend forcing processes using canadian data the consumption based asset pricing model is studied defined in terms of nondurable and durable goods consumption a two stage estimation procedure is used which takes account of the presence of common stochastic trends in the forcing processes this method yields more reasonable estimates of the preference parameters than the previous studies did and the asset pricing equation is not rejected by the data moreover the preference specification adopted in this paper allows a number of useful economic information to be obtained the additive separability assumption and the cobb douglas functional form of the utility function are ruled complements in the sense of edgeworth and pareto

review on the costs and benefits of renewable energy power subsidy in china abstract nowadays renewable energy plays a vital role in the sustainable development of a society in china renewable energy power has developed rapidly since the implementation of renewable energy act through a series of specific incentive measures especially subsidy policies china s renewable energy power has made great achievements both in technology and application based on the state of the art of renewable energy power this paper comprehensively analyzed the costs and benefits of renewable energy power subsidy in china the analysis results show the cost of renewable energy power subsidy was 0 248 cny kwh between 2006 and april 2011 which was distributed among different renewable energy power types including wind power biomass power and solar pv power or categories including electricity price accessing grid projects and public independent renewable energy power system on the other hand the renewable energy power subsidy also brings benefits to different aspects of the society specifically the environmental benefit amounted to 17 88 billion cny and the benefits of guaranteeing energy security advancing technology innovation and promoting economic development were also noteworthy

age discrimination laws and labor market efficiency in lazear s model of long term incentive contracts age discrimina tion laws barring age based involuntary terminations preclude such contracts reducing efficiency alternatively such laws may serve as precommitment devices for these contracts without pre venting firms from offering strong financial incentives to induce retirement at specific ages in this case age discrimination laws may encourage lazear contracts hence increasing efficiency we assess evidence on these alternative interpretations using variation in state and federal age discrimination laws the evidence indicates that age discrimination laws steepen age earnings profiles for co horts entering the labor market suggesting that these laws encour age the use of lazear contracts

the impact of human capital investments on pension benefits this article develops a model with deferred compensation and severance pay that predicts that workers bear all the costs and receive all the returns of human capital investments and that specific investments yield higher returns than general investments this model also predicts that pensions which efficiently defer compensation will be positively related to specific investments evidence from the national longitudinal survey of older men confirms these predictions participation in company sponsored training programs proxying for specific investments increases the probability of pension receipt and the level of benefits more general training outside the firm has much smaller effects on pensions

an application of cointegration theory in the estimation of the almost ideal demand system for food consumption in bulgaria abstract the almost ideal demand system is applied to consumption in bulgaria it is argued that the conventional estimation of the almost ideal model should be done within the framework of contemporary time series methodology in this paper the canonical cointegrating regression procedure of park is applied it is argued that the results of the almost ideal demand system that are presented are consistent with both theory and casual observation of consumer behaviour in bulgaria

adjustment costs and import demand behavior evidence from canada and the united states abstract in this paper we examine whether adjustment costs are a significant source of the observed sluggish adjustment of canadian and us import demand we use a simple model of a utility maximizing domestic consumer under the assumption of integrated forcing variables to examine the importance of adjustment costs this formulation of the problem allows us to exploit the recently developed theory of cointegration to estimate the structural parameters of the model using a two step methodology moreover the formulation incorporates an element of forward looking behaviour into the decision process a feature that is important if one assumes adjustment costs are a significant source of persistence in import demand adjustment the empirical results from a euler equation imply that adjustment costs in canada and the united states are important

terms of trade and real exchange rates the canadian evidence abstract this paper presents empirical evidence linking the canada us real exchange rate with the terms of trade using recently developed econometric methods for nondashstationary data we find that the real exchange rate is cointegrated with terms of trade variables and that causality runs from the terms of trade to the exchange rate we then construct a simple exchange rate equation that satisfies several specification tests and performs better than a random walk in post sample forecasting experiments the results suggest that much of the variation in the real exchange rate is attributable to movements in the terms of trade and that the influence of monetary factors is secondary

the effect of emergency liquidity assistance ela on bank lending during the euro area crisis abstract we examine the impact of emergency liquidity assistance ela on bank lending in eleven euro area countries during the financial crisis with the intensification of the crisis ela took on a pivotal role in some countries however assessments of the quantitative impact of ela in the literature are non existent we estimate a structural panel model for the determination of bank lending which includes the amount of ela received by each bank allowing us to investigate the direct effect of ela on lending our model corrects a mis specification found in the prototype model used in the literature we then undertake a var analysis which allows us to address the effect of ela on gdp finally we examine spillover effects among banks indicating that ela generated positive spillovers to other banks

the effect of access to post retirement health insurance on the decision to retire early the authors analyze the effect of the availability of post retirement health insurance on early retirement behavior of men using data from the 1984 1986 and 1988 panels of the survey of income and program participation sipp they extend previous static models of retirement to account for access to health insurance as a factor in the retirement decision the estimates from probit models of retirement during the sipp panel period show that the offer of continued employer provided health insurance coverage after retirement increased the likelihood of retirement before age 65 also the authors find evidence that the presence before retirement of retirement insurance coverage through a source in addition to the employer increased the likelihood of early retirement

a structural dynamic analysis of retirement behaviour in the netherlands this study focuses on determinants of elderly labour force participation and retirement decisions in the netherlands this is analysed by a dynamic programming model for the simultaneous choice of retirement age and route which includes social insurance and private pensions eligibility conditions for early retirement lifecycle wage and health profiles and layoffs special attention is given to opportunities for and the effect of participation policies results show that institutional structures of benefit and pension programmes are prime determinants of retirement particularly eligibility conditions and potential substitution between exit routes and that dynamic aspects are relevant for understanding retirement behaviour copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

economic determinants of workers retirement decisions the landscape for older workers has changed dramatically in recent decades governments have made cuts to public pension programs private pensions have shifted from defined benefit to defined contribution plans equity and housing markets have been unusually volatile and workers have experienced declining morbidity and mortality at the same time the labor force participation rate for older men and women has been rising over the past two decades implying later retirement are these phenomena related this paper reviews the large and growing body of literature exploring the economic determinants of workers retirement decisions including public and private pensions wealth and savings health and health insurance and labor demand

declining discount rates and the fisher effect inflated past discounted future uncertain and persistent real interest rates underpin one argument for using a declining term structure of social discount rates in the expected net present value enpv framework despite being controversial this approach has influenced both the inter agency working group on cost benefit analysis and the uk government s guidelines on discounting we first clarify the theoretical basis of the enpv approach then rather than following previous work which used a single series of u s treasury bond returns we treat nominal interest rates and inflation as co integrated series and estimate the empirical term structure of discount rates via the fisher effect this nests previous empirical models and is more flexible it also addresses an irregularity in previous work which used data on nominal interest rates until 1950 and real interest rates thereafter as we show the real and nominal data have very different time series properties this paper therefore provides a robustness check on previous discounting advice and updated methodological guidance at a time when governments around the world are reviewing their guidelines on social discounting the policy implications are discussed in the context of the social cost of carbon nuclear decommissioning and public health

commodity currencies and the real exchange rate abstract this paper examines whether the real exchange rates of commodity exporting countries and the real prices of their commodity exports move together over time using international monetary fund imf data on the world prices of 44 commodities and national commodity export shares we construct new monthly indices of national commodity export prices for 58 commodity exporting countries over 1980 2002 evidence of a long run relationship between national real exchange rate and real commodity prices is found for about one third of the commodity exporting countries the long run real exchange rate of these commodity currencies is not constant as would be implied by purchasing power parity based models but is time varying being dependent on movements in the real price of commodity exports

rights based management and alaska pollock processors supply using data from the alaska pollock fishery this study investigates the link between the implementation of rights based management and processors price responsiveness in a multiproduct fishery the analysis is based on cointegration with structural breaks to provide empirical evidence of a change in the long run relationship between processors production product prices and whole fish deliveries the results indicate that the endogenously determined structural breaks happened near the time when this fishery implemented individual fishing quotas furthermore the estimation of the cointegrating vector indicates that the processors of this fishery are significantly more price responsive after the change in management copyright 2008 oxford university press

us deficit sustainability a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks recent empirical work has questioned the consistency of us fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit process has undergone at least one structural shift during recent decades with the deficit becoming either unsustainable or sustainable in only a weak sense in the post shift period in this paper we re examine sustainability using a new approach based on a cointegration model with multiple endogenous breaks a bayesian methodology is applied incorporating markov chain monte carlo simulators in contrast to previous analyses we find evidence of a sustainable deficit process over the 1947 1992 period despite the occurrence of breaks during the 1970s and 1980s copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

why is there mandatory retirement an empirical reexamination a widely cited explanation of mandatory retirement age provisions is the incentives model developed and tested by lazear the research reported here builds upon lazear s empirical framework by adding testable implications drawn from a specific human capital explanation of mandatory retirement the role of monitoring costs in accounting for mandatory retirement rules is also discussed the evidence presented based on data from the nls mature men sample indicates that in addition to the personal characteristics examined by lazear a comprehensive explanation of mandatory retirement requires the consideration of both specific human capital and monitoring costs

german monetary unification and the stability of the german m3 money demand function abstract this paper employs quarterly data from the whole of germany to test the stability of m3 demand for money the methodology is based on an application of the cusum and cusumsq in the context of error correction modeling and cointegration the results reveal some instability in m3 money demand function

economic determinants of workers retirement decisions economic determinants of workers retirement decisions the landscape for older workers has changed dramatically in recent decades governments have made cuts to public pension programs private pensions have shifted from defined benefit to defined contribution plans equity and housing markets have been unusually volatile and workers have experienced declining morbidity and mortality at the same time the labor force participation rate for older men and women has been rising over the past two decades implying later retirement are these phenomena related this paper reviews the large and growing body of literature exploring the economic determinants of workers retirement decisions including public and private pensions wealth and savings health and health insurance and labor demand

economic determinants of the optimal retirement age an empirical investigation in this paper we examine how the structures of earnings social security and pension benefits affect retirement behavior we use an intertemporal model of labor supply paying special attention to the institutional features of private pensions and social security benefits this theoretical formulation produces comparative dynamic predictions and guides empirical modeling data from a new survey of workers and their income opportunities are used to implement the empirical model on the basis of empirical retirement estimates we conclude that 1 people with higher base wealth retire earlier and 2 those who expect to gain more by postponing retirement retire later

nonlinear equilibrium correction in u s real money balances 1869 1997 several theoretical models of money demand imply nonlinear functional forms for the aggregate demand for money characterized by smooth adjustment toward long run equilibrium in this paper we propose a nonlinear equilibrium correction model of u s money demand that is shown to be stable over the sample period from 1869 to 1997

instability in cointegration regressions a brief review with an application to money demand in portugal this study addresses some modelling questions related to the possibility of structural change in models with nonstationary variables focusing on cointegration issues some methodological aspects are discussed attempting to integrate coherently the several steps of the modelling strategy these range from unit root to cointegration testing and to testing for instability in the cointegration vector an empirical example with portuguese data tries to illustrate the usefulness of this approach where a simple money demand function is estimated using an error correction model ecm if a break is explicitly allowed in the cointegration vector the forecasting performance of the ecm improves

a heterogeneous model of disposition effect a portfolio choice model is provided to illustrate the disposition effect under irrational belief in mean reversion assumption higher cognitive reference stronger irrational belief in mean reversion magnitude and less risk aversion all strengthen the disposition effect in the model the equilibrium market interest rate is priced after the market clearing condition is employed the grater disposition effect reduces the capital mobility from the stock market to the bond market and thus mitigates the dropping of the market interest rate

the importance of the measure of health in empirical estimates of the labor supply of older men abstract when a more objective measure of health is used economic variables previously masked by self reported health measures are found to significantly affect work effort of older men this may explain differences in results of previous studies even when the same empirical specifications are used

is mandatory retirement overrated evidence from the 1970s in this paper we argue that mandatory retirement is only one aspect of a much broader system that influences an individual s retirement decision we look at responses over time to variations in mandatory retirement rules faced by a sample of private sector workers aged 62 64 in 1973 this is done within a model that specifically includes the economic incentives present in social security and pension systems we find that the impact of a mandatory retirement rule on work is considerably smaller than a simple comparison of those with and without mandatory retirement would imply

african terms of trade and the commodity terms of trade close cousins or distant relatives this paper examines whether there is a relationship between the commodity terms of trade the price of primary commodities relative to the price of manufactures and the net barter terms of trade of 42 sub saharan african countries for most countries there is little evidence of a stable long run relationship between the two terms of trade series accordingly the practice in the literature of proxying for movements in any given country s terms of trade by using an aggregate index of relative commodity prices is inappropriate and is likely to engender misleading policy conclusions

energy use by chinese economy a systems cross scale input output analysis abstract an overview for energy use in chinese economy is presented in this study by means of a systems cross scale input output analysis to concretely reflect the cross scale effect between china and the rest of the world embodied energy intensity of foreign imports is provided on the basis of our recent work on the world economy in contrast to the conventional assumption of the same intensity for both the foreign and domestic trade in 2012 the energy embodied in gross fixed capital formation is found to constitute nearly half of the total energy use in china three quarters larger than the total household consumption approximately 40 of energy resources embodied in final use turn out to be imported from foreign regions twice the share of the direct energy imports in total energy consumption recorded by traditional direct accounting the trade imbalance in energy use is illustrated with the support of the law of comparative advantage in addition to economic benefits hidden social impacts including indirect external dependence and health costs associated with non energy trade should also be considered by the government in industrial structure adjustment the present embodiment study is expected to be remarkably supportive for sustainable energy policy making in china

pensions and indenture premia the implicit pension contract has provided a theoretical basis for the observed relation between pensions less quitting and earlier retirement but it also has encountered difficulty explaining why wages seem too high in pension firms this anomaly has been taken by some to imply that efficiency wages not pension capital losses explain why quitting is abnormally low in defined benefit pensions in this paper i pursue an alternative explanation that the implicit contract model is oversimplified because it ignores supply conditions facing long tenure firms i show that once an allowance is made for compensation required by workers for entering long term labor contracts numerous anomalous empirical observations in the pension market are explicable

is the budget deficit too large some further evidence i introduction since the early 1980s the u s federal government has run unprecedented peacetime deficits the size of these deficits became a major issue in recent u s presidential elections for example during the 1992 elections ross perot successfully used his simple charts and tables to convey the notion that the size of the deficit was too large economists look at the deficit issue from a different perspective instead of emphasizing the size of the deficit at any particular point in time they are more concerned with the intertemporal solvency condition the present value of debt in the long run this condition focuses on the long run paths of interest inclusive expenditures and revenues unless these two variables trend together over the long run the government will have an incentive to default on the debt losing the confidence of investors from the standpoint of the intertemporal solvency condition are recent deficits too large do they represent boundless growth of government debt as an empirical proposition boundless growth of the debt corresponds to non stationarity of the deficit or the first difference of the debt recent developments in time series econometrics have provided ways to examine the intertemporal solvency condition for example hamilton and flavin 1986 and trehan and walsh 1991 apply stationarity tests to the u s federal deficit similarly hakkio and rush 1991 test for cointegration between interest inclusive expenditures and revenues while bohn 1991 tests for the cointegration of debt non interest expenditures and revenues hakkio and rush s results suggest that the deficit is too large for intertemporal solvency and thus the government has an incentive to default on its debt they conclude that over the period 1950 through 1989 interest inclusive expenditures and revenues are cointegrated but not one to one this suggests that although the present discounted value of the debt tends to zero the undiscounted value of the debt will be unbounded moreover they find that interest inclusive expenditures are not cointegrated with revenues over the period 1964 to 1989 the government debt appears to drift upward without bound overall hakkio and rush s results suggest that the government will have an incentive to default on the debt at some point in the future 1 we look at the issue from a different point of view we believe that a discrete break in the fiscal process occurred in the early 1980s as a result of several policy changes such as the 1981 economic recovery and tax act during the first reagan administration this reagan era change is modeled as a one time upward shift in the constant component of the deficit as mccallum 1984 shows a constant interest inclusive deficit does not imply boundless growth of government debt and should not provide an incentive to inflate away the debt as did previous research we conduct tests for the cointegration of interest inclusive expenditures and revenues as well as stationarity tests on the deficit 2 however we allow a shift in the intercept term of the cointegration and stationarity tests to capture the break in the fiscal process our results show that when the break is included expenditures and revenues are cointegrated with a coefficient not statistically different from unity i e that the deficit is stationary this contradicts the conclusions of hakkio and rush of course the way we choose the break date may be crucial to our analysis our initial choice of break date is based on prior information this is the approach used by perron 1989 who tests the u s gnp with a break chosen using prior information christiano 1992 criticizes perron 1989 on the a priori choice of the break date he suggests that the break date should be chosen using a formal pre test procedure moreover any statistical inference that follows must take this pre test procedure into account

housing and the great depression this article considers the structural stability of the relationship between the real housing price and real gdp per capita for an annual sample that includes the great depression we test for structural change in parameter values using a sample of annual us data from 1890 to 1952 the article examines the long run and short run dynamic relationships between the real housing price and real gdp per capita to determine whether these relationships experienced structural change over the sample period we find that temporal granger causality exists between these two variables only for subsamples that include the great depression for the other subsample periods as well as for the entire sample period no relationship exists between these variables

a time series analysis of real wages consumption and asset returns summary this paper re examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption real wages and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption we show that an optimal contract model restricts the long run relation of the real wage rate and consumption we exploit this long run restriction cointegration restriction for estimating and testing the model using ogaki and park s 1989 cointegration approach this long run restriction involves a parameter that we call the long run intertemporal elasticity of substitution ies for non durable consumption but does not involve the ies for leisure this allows us to estimate the long run ies for non durable consumption from a cointegrating regression tests for the null of cointegration do not reject our model as a further analysis our estimates of the long run ies for non durable consumption are used to estimate the discount factor and a coefficient of time nonseparability using hansen s 1982 generalized method of moments we form a specification test for our model a la hausman 1978 from these two steps this specification test does not reject our model this paper re examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption real wages and asset returns are consistent with a simple neoclassical representative agent economy previous empirical explorations of this issue have rejected the neoclassical model in large part because the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the real wage as is implied by the the first order conditions of the model in this paper we argue that an optimal labour contracting model is more appropriate for understanding the time series behaviour of real wages and consumption we show that a version of the optimal contract model restricts the long run relation between real wages and consumption we exploit this longrun restriction ri cointegration restriction to estimate preference parameters and test the model first we employ the cointegration approach suggested by ogaki and park 1989 to estimate the long run intertemporal elasticity of substitution for non durable consumption from a cointegrating regression we test the model by testing for the cointegration restriction

analysis on the policies of biomass power generation in china abstract this paper systematically collects and sorts out china polices of biomass power generation policy mainly from 2006 to 2012 based on the actual demand of the biomass power generation project according to the effect of the policy implementation it analyzes the problems about the policies such as the development goal being too large tax policies not being easy to implement the relevance amongst some policies being poor and provides some suggestions finally it concludes that biomass power generation should be developed steadily in china and fiscal supporting should not be introduced any more

the early retirement decision new empirical evidence on the influence of health many studies have examined the influence of health on retirement but there may be problems with the various health measures used a major criticism of the most frequently used variables is that they may reflect ex post rationalizations of retirement in this paper i examine a variety of health variables focusing directly on the health measurement issue as it relates to retirement research new measures of health are developed with individual self evaluations of health status unlike most previous findings the empirical results suggest that economic variables play a more important role than health in retirement decisions

empirical analysis of the exchange rate channel in japan abstract this paper analyzes the significance of the exchange rate channel one of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy it is important to evaluate this channel for japan because yen depreciation has been proposed as a policy to move the economy out of a liquidity trap our results suggest that in the past monetary expansion resulted in yen depreciation in the long and short run however there is no evidence to support the view that yen depreciation facilitated economic growth therefore we conclude that use of the exchange rate as a mechanism to boost the real economy was in our sample period at least premature

testing for the cointegrating rank of a var process with structural shifts tests for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process are considered that allow for possible exogenous shifts in the mean of the data generation process the break points are assumed to be known a priori it is proposed to estimate and remove the deterministic terms such as mean linear trend term and a shift in a first step then systems cointegration tests are applied to the adjusted series the resulting tests are shown to have known limiting null distributions that are free of nuisance parameters and do not depend on the break point the tests are applied for analyzing the number of cointegrating relations in two german money demand systems

are benefits from oil stocks diversification gone new evidence from a dynamic copula and high frequency data abstract oil is perceived as a good diversification tool for stock markets to fully understand this potential we propose a new empirical methodology that combines generalized autoregressive score copula functions with high frequency data and allows us to capture and forecast the conditional time varying joint distribution of the oil stocks pair accurately our realized garch with time varying copula yields statistically better forecasts of the dependence and quantiles of the distribution relative to competing models employing a recently proposed conditional diversification benefits measure that considers higher order moments and nonlinear dependence from tail events we document decreasing benefits from diversification over the past ten years the diversification benefits implied by our empirical model are moreover strongly varied over time these findings have important implications for asset allocation as the benefits of including oil in stock portfolios may not be as large as perceived

self exciting effects of house prices on unit prices in australian capital cities this paper examines the long and short run relationship between australian house and unit prices across all capital cities over the period december 1995 to june 2015 we find that house and unit prices are cointegrated and based on the results of granger causality and generalised impulse responses that house prices significantly influence unit prices across all cities however bi directional causality responses exists only for major capital cities with the exception of brisbane we also for the first time apply self excited threshold models to explore the complex interplay between house and unit prices in australia we find that when the market for units is self excited or bullish the positive effects of house prices on unit prices are noticeably larger than otherwise there is a varying degree of herd mentality in the australian property market with sydney and darwin being the most and least excitable capital cities respectively

geographical and environmental perspectives for the sustainable development of renewable energy in urbanizing china with rapid urbanization and industrialization china has become both the largest energy consumer and co2 emitting country in the world as a clean and low carbon energy source renewable energy is a good choice to substitute for the exhausted fossil energy the chinese central and local governments have made a series of policies and optimistic plans to promote a rapid development of renewable energies china s renewable energy development has become a key to the sustainable development of socioeconomic system unlike most of the current studies which mainly identified the challenges regarding policies and technologies around renewable energy or performed specific analyses for a certain kind of renewable energy this paper summarizes the spatial disparity and consistency among the major renewable energies coal resources energy consumption and its major influencing factors in china and reviews the positive and negative environmental impacts of major renewable energies based on the geographical and environmental perspectives this paper recommends that the chinese government constructs the national energy production bases according to the resource distribution integrates different energies on the basis of their natural features and spatial consistency adjusts the overall layout of socio economic development consistent with renewable energies and promotes a moderate renewable energy development to maximize the environmental benefits c 2013 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

encouraging long term tenure wage tilt or pensions the author analyzes data on 6 416 persons in 109 firms to determine whether the length of these workers tenure was positively related either to wage tilt the payment of below market wages in the early years of the worker s employment with a firm and above market wages in the later years or to the presence of defined benefit pension plans contrary to the popular but little tested hypothesis that wage tilt is important in inducing workers to make long term commitments to the firm the results show that wage tilt had no significant effect on tenure except indirectly through its effect on pension quit costs in contrast pensions increased tenure in the firm on average by more than 20

projecting faculty retirement factors influencing individual decisions the impending elimination of mandatory retirement for tenured faculty on january 1 1994 public law 99 592 1986 has raised the visibility of a number of questions about faculty retirement behavior what are the factors that influence individual faculty members retirement decisions how important are financial and nonfinancial considerations why do faculty in private institutions work to a later age on average than their colleagues in public institutions are there other systematic for example genderor discipline related differences as well this paper is an attempt to answer such questions about individual faculty retirement behavior the paper utilizes data collected as part of a comprehensive national study that projected faculty retirements through the year 2003 for over 35 000 faculty at 101 doctoral research comprehensive and general baccalaureate institutions see our 1990 paper the discussion that follows uses data from that broader institutional survey and from a survey of 747 faculty members age 55 and over who had separated from this same set of 101 institutions among the information provided by the 518 usable responses were data on factors that influence faculty members decisions regarding the appropriate time to retire

estimating long run economic equilibria with stochastic trends an asymptotic theory is provided to analyze a menu of currently existing estimators of cointegrated systems we study in detail the single equation ecm seecm approach of hendry our theoretical results lead to prescriptions for empirical work such as specifying seecm s nonlinearly and including lagged equilibrium relationships rather than lagged differences of the dependent variable as covariates simulations support these prescriptions and point to problems of overfitting not encountered in the semiparametric approach of phillips and hansen 1990

aggregate consumption behaviour and liquidity constraints the canadian evidence this paper considers a general permanent income model in which a fraction of consumers in the economy is liquidity constrained consumption growth rate for these individuals is related to the growth rate of their income and the level of real interest rates the interest rate coefficient is predicted to be smaller in the presence of liquidity constraints empirically liquidity constraints are found to be important and the estimated intertemporal elasticity of substitution parameter is much larger than the one obtained by estimating the standard representative agent model lastly there is some evidence of structural changes over the sample period which are associated with the 1982 recession

the residential demand for electricity in australia an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration this paper reports estimates of the long and short run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration within an autoregressive distributive lag framework in the long run we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant our estimates of long run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates as expected the short run elasticities are much smaller than the long run elasticities and the coefficients on the error correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short run energy appliances are fixed

toward explaining earlier retirement after 1970 this study investigates why after 15 years of virtual stability u s labor force participation rates for men aged 55 to 64 fell by approximately 20 from 1970 through 1986 the author s analysis of rule changes in the social security system and pension plans suggests that part of this reduction was caused by an increase in social security benefits by almost 50 during the 1970s half of which is not reflected in legislation which worked to create unexpected wealth effects similar to those that characterized the system during the early 1950s but an equally important cause was a widespread change in private pension plan rules toward encouraging earlier retirement these conclusions challenge the common notion that earlier retirement is largely a supply side phenomenon

social security unanticipated benefit increases and the timing of retirement between 1969 and 1972 real u s social security retirement benefits rose by 20 the rise was unanticipated and followed over 15 years of relatively constant real benefits this paper proposes a model of retirement behaviour in which workers respond differently although in a theoretically consistent manner to the anticipated and unanticipated components of the social security benefit they can receive upon retirement the retirement age decision in the presence of unanticipated benefit changes is shown to be a special case of utility maximization under a nonlinear budget constraint the model is estimated using the longitudinal retirement history survey between 1969 and 1973 real social security benefits for u s workers with fixed earnings histories were raised by more than 20 these increases were the first significant increases in social security since the early 1950 s at the same time that retirement benefits were rising the trend toward early retirement among older american men accelerated in the period from 1965 to 1970 the labour force participation rate of men aged 55 to 64 fell 1 6 percentage points from 84x6 to 83 0 but in the five years after 1970 the rate fell an additional 7 4 points to 75 6 the participation rate of men over 65 fell by 1 1 points in the five years after 1965 but by 5 2 points during the mid 1970 s 1 not surprisingly a large share of this labour force decline has been attributed to the effects of the social security increases enacted in 1969 and 1972 the purpose of this paper is to determine the precise effect of the unanticipated benefit increases on the timing of retirement the effect of social security on the age at retirement has been the subject of lively debate in recent years the literature has been reviewed in two recent papers by mitchell and fields 1982 and hurd 1983 who reach nearly opposite conclusions about the lessons that can be drawn from past empirical research mitchell and fields find that no definite judgment can be reached about the effects of social security on retirement while hurd argues that more careful studies have all found a significant and meaningful effect of social security on early retirement certainly the earlier studies by boskin 1977 and boskin and hurd 1978 found very large social security effects with boskin concluding that the social security system has been the major factor in the explosion in earlier retirement boskin 1977 p 1 very recent studies by burkhauser and quinn 1983 burtless and moffitt 1984 diamond and hausman 1984 fields and mitchell 1984 and hausman and wise 1985 have found smaller social security effects however none of them dealt explicitly with the rapid rise in real benefits during the early 1970 s the approach taken in this paper differs significantly from that in the earlier research just cited the proposed econometric model takes full account of the nonlinear relationship between goods consumption and the age at retirement introduced by social security

taiwan s renewable energy strategy and energy intensive industrial policy abstract since taiwan is a densely populated island with almost no fossil energy resources the development of renewable energy is an important issue in the past industries with low energy productivity were encouraged for economic development but this structure of low energy productivity industries should now be adjusted to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency by analyzing the gross domestic product together with the energy consumption and co2 emissions for major industries in taiwan this paper considers what kinds of industries should be encouraged or discouraged for taiwan s future development in addition the recommendations for taiwan s renewable energy and energy intensive industrial policy are presented