information on strikes and union settlements patterns of coverage in a newspaper of record the authors investigate whether the new york times coverage of strikes and non strike wage settlements in large bargaining units changed during the 1980s a time when a transformation of industrial relations is said to have taken place although the total number of new york times articles on such events declined during the 1980s the authors find that when appropriate control variables are included in the analysis the apparent drop in coverage disappears important variables determining the extent of news coverage were occurrence of a strike strike duration number of workers involved occurrence of federal intervention key industry status that is whether the affected industry was among those industries identified as exceptionally important for wage setting and proximity to new york city they speculate that the reduced number of articles may simply reflect a decreased incidence of strikes

does product market competition increase strike activity evidence from the uk although many studies have examined the effect of labour market characteristics macroeconomic fluctuations and workplace level factors on strike activity much less is known about industry level determinants of industrial conflict and in particular the role of product market competition i examine the effect of competition on strike activity using evidence from a natural experiment of policy reform the introduction of cartel legislation in the uk in the late 1950s my econometric analysis which takes advantage of the fact that different industries were affected to varying degrees by cartel policy establishes that both the number of strikes and the number of working days lost as a result of strikes increased significantly when competition intensified after the abolition of cartels i propose an interpretation of these results with reference to theoretical models of bargaining with asymmetric information

strikes and holdouts in wage bargaining theory and data we develop a private information model of union contract negotiations in which disputes signal a firm s willingness to pay previous models have assumed that all labor disputes take the form of a strike yet a prominent feature of u s collective bargaining is the holdout negotiations often continue without a strike after the contract has expired production continues with workers paid according to the expired contract we analyze the union s decision to strike or hold out and highlight its importance to strike activity strikes are more likely to occur after a drop in the real wage or a decline in unemployment

imperfect information and strikes an analysis of canadian experience 1967 82 to test their hypothesis that the propensity to strike is affected less by the actual balance of bargaining power than by the parties uncertainty about their relative power the authors perform a probit analysis of data on 1 871 collective agreements negotiated in the canadian manufacturing sector between 1967 and 1982 they find consistent with their hypothesis that some characteristics of individual bargaining units the relevant industries and the economy as a whole that affect both the quantity and reliability of information needed to assess relative bargaining power do have significant value in predicting strike incidence across industries and over time

employment rents and the incidence of strikes a new measure of labor market tightness on workers behavior the employment rent is modeled as a determinant of workplace conflict an empirical estimate of the employment rent workers expected cost of job loss is calculated it is argued that the cost of job loss affects strike incidence this relationship is tested by estimating an econometric model of strike incidence for the united states from 1955 to 1983 the cost of job loss is shown to explain a large percentage of the variation in strike incidence the cost of job loss is a far superior explanatory variable than the unemployment rate which is commonly used in strike models copyright 1987 by mit press

does right or left matter cabinets credibility and fiscal adjustments abstract this paper tests the widely held assumption that left wing cabinets favor higher public spending and examines whether cabinet ideology affects the persistence of major fiscal adjustments in a panel of large fiscal adjustments in oecd countries during the last 40 years we find evidence that left wing and right wing cabinets are partisan the left tends to reduce the deficit by raising tax revenues while the right relies mostly on spending cuts our testable hypothesis is that cabinets can signal commitment by undertaking fiscal adjustments in ways that are not favored by their constituencies in other words the left gains credibility when it cuts spending while the right becomes more credible when it increases tax revenues probit estimates of the determinants of persistence in fiscal adjustments confirm that spending cuts by the left and tax increases by the right are associated with persistent adjustments the effect is significant for cuts in public spending public consumption wage or nonwage increases in total revenues direct taxes on businesses and other taxes we test for the role of several other determinants of persistence confirming that coalition and majority cabinets are associated with less persistence while periods of high or rising levels of indebtedness favor persistence the estimates of the impact of ideology and other variables on gdp and its components show that it is the size of the spending cut rather than cabinet ideology that is most important

how do budget deficits and economic growth affect reelection prospects evidence from a large panel of countries conventional wisdom is that good economic conditions and expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get reelected but this has not been tested in a large cross section of countries we test these arguments in a sample of 74 countries over the period 1960 2003 we find no evidence that deficits help reelection in any group of countries developed and less developed new and old democracies countries with different government or electoral systems and countries with different levels of democracy in developed countries and in old democracies election year deficits actually reduce the probability that a leader is reelected with similar although smaller negative electoral effects of deficits in the earlier years of an incumbent s term in office higher growth rates of real gdp per capita raise the probability of reelection only in the less developed countries and in new democracies but voters are affected by growth over the leader s term in office rather than in the election year itself and apparently only by growth not attributed to global growth low inflation is rewarded by voters only in the developed countries the effects we find are not only statistically significant but also quite substantial quantitatively we also suggest how the absence of a positive electoral effect of deficits can be consistent with the political deficit cycle found in new democracies

inflation and social consensus in the seventies it is widely believed that the two oil price shocks of the i 970s played a major role in the increase in inflation in industrial countries while this hypothesis is consistent with the timing of changes in inflation at the global level it seems to break down when applied to individual countries cross sectionally for example over the period i973 9 switzerland had an average inflation rate of 4 7 while in neighbouring italy inflation averaged i5 6 over the same period furthermore inflation in the pre opec period i97i 2 was actually higher in switzerland than in italy it seems that a supply shock explanation of inflation in the seventies also requires an explanation of why different countries responded so differently to a similar set of shocks at the world level the purpose of this paper is to offer such an explanation and to test the hypothesis with a cross sectional equation accounting for differences in average inflation rates over the period i973 9 in eighteen oecd countries this time period includes the year of the first opec shock i 973 and the following six years up to the time of the second opec shock the hypothesis to be tested is set in the framework of a model similar to that of brunner et al i 980 the key features of the brunner model are that the adjustment of real wage expectations is subject to lags and that labour supply is positively related to the difference between the perceived real wage and the expected or target real wage given these two assumptions a negative supply shock gives rise to a period of stagflation whose intensity will be greater the slower is the speed of adjustment of real wage expectations the model of this paper extends the brunner model in three ways first across countries the speed of adjustment of real wage expectations or targets is assumed to depend positively on the degree of social consensus as proxied negatively by an indicator of average long run strike activity second the model allows for the possibility of inflation inertia or systematically incorrect inflation expectations as well as a sluggish adjustment of real wage expectations third the model incorporates the hypothesis that money supply growth will vary across countries according to variations in inflationary pressures as perceived by governments the first section of the paper provides a discussion of the rationale for the key proposition regarding strikes and social consensus as well as a brief discussion of the role of wage bargaining institutions section ii develops a theoretical model which yields a reduced form cross sectional equation relating the average i 973 9

do elections affect the composition of fiscal policy in developed established democracies this paper investigates the impact of elections on the level and composition of fiscal instruments using a sample of 19 high income oecd democracies during the period 1972 1999 we find that elections shift public spending towards current expenditures at the cost of public investment although we find no evidence for an electoral cycle for government deficit and overall expenditures we find a negative effect of elections on revenue attributed to a fall in direct taxation our results apply for predetermined electoral periods while endogenous elections seem to increase deficit and leave the composition of fiscal policy unaffected

consolidation of new democracy mass attitudes and clientelism adi brender allan drazendecember 2008when democracy is new it is often fragile or unconsolidated meaning that importantpolitical groups lack full commitment to the democratic process so that its survival is notassured what economic policies can a government use to try to prevent a reversion toautocracy one answer to this question begins with the argument that the threat to democracycomes from anti democratic elites the army groups such as the wealthy who bene ttedmost under the old regime the oligarchs who are seen as basically anti democratic andwho have the power to overthrow the new democratic regime the masses are seen asunambiguously pro democratic under this view policy to consolidate democracy shouldfocus on placating the anti democratic elites or colloquially but not inaccurately to buythem o this approach has received a superb treatment in daron acemoglu and jamesa robinson 2005 targeted economic policy to consolidate democracy can be viewed more generally sur vival of democracy and policy to enhance that can be thought of in terms of two fun damental questions the rst is how does the support of di erent actors a ect theprobability that democracy survives the second is then how do these important actorschoose whether or not to support the continuation of democracy or its overthrow thedesign of policy to address democratic fragility depends on the answers to these two basicquestions the policy prescription in the previous paragraph for example follows from theanswers it is the elites alone who are determinate and their support depends on givingthem enough that they are content not to overthrow democracy our research on the fragility of new democracies focusses on di erent but complemen tary issues while we agree that anti democratic elites pose a serious threat to fragile1

is strike behavior cyclical we examine cyclicality of strike frequency and incidence using canadian data on strikes and contracts total strike frequency exhibits significant procyclicality to which within contract strikes contribute appreciably evidence is weaker for procyclical behavior of contract expiry strikes both in total and disaggregated by issue strike incidence is also procyclical particularly in manufacturing though the procyclicality here is confined to strikes over nonwage issues these results mirror those obtained by analyzing the frequency of strikes in the contract data industry specific cyclical variables positively affect strike incidence in manufacturing but region specific variables have no effect

voters as fiscal conservatives voters penalize federal and state spending growth this is the central result of my analysis of voting behavior in presidential senatorial and gubernatorial elections from 1950 1988 the composition of federal spending growth seems irrelevant the vote loss to the president s party from an extra dollar of defense or nondefense spending is the same however in gubernatorial elections expansion of state welfare spending exacts a disproportionate political price deficit financing of federal or state spending does not appear to matter politically i conclude by discussing the obvious question of why government budgets have grown in the face of this voter hostility

decoupling between human development and energy consumption within footprint accounts abstract historically the growth of energy consumption has fuelled human development but this approach is no longer socially and environmentally sustainable recent analyses suggest that some individual countries have responded to this issue successfully by decoupling total primary energy supply from human development increase however globalisation and international trade have allowed high income countries to outsource industrial production to lower income countries thereby increasingly relying on foreign energy use to satisfy their own consumption of goods and services accounting for the import of embodied energy in goods and services this study proposes an alternative estimation of the decoupling index based on the total primary energy footprint rather than total primary energy supply an analysis of 126 countries over the years 2000 2014 demonstrates that previous studies based on energy supply highly overestimated decoupling footprint based results on the other hand show an overall decrease of the decoupling index for most countries 93 out of 126 there is a reduction of the number of both absolutely decoupled countries from 40 to 27 and relatively decoupled countries from 29 to 17 and an increase of coupled countries from 55 to 80 furthermore the study shows that decoupling is not a phenomenon characterising only high income countries due to improvements in energy efficiency but is also occurring in countries with low human development index and low energy consumption finally six exemplary countries have been identified which were able to maintain a continuous decoupling trend from these exemplary countries lessons have been identified in order to boost the necessary global decoupling of energy consumption and achieved welfare

money politics and the post war business cycle abstract the political economy literature has enshrined as stylized fact the view that lower inflation and temporarily lower growth follow the election of republican presidents and has emphasized political manipulation of monetary policy as an explanation support for the monetary explanation comes in econometric work that largely ignores identification issues that dominate the literature on measuring the effects of monetary policy we generalize a standard vector autoregression framework to accommodate discrete political party variables we find almost no support for the view that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all

the effect of fiscal performance on local government election results in israel 1989 1998 abstract we discuss the circumstances under which voters in local elections will reward fiscal responsibility and suggest that such circumstances evolved in israel in the mid 1990s we present empirical evidence that indeed fiscal performance of mayors substantially affected their reelection probability in the 1998 campaign but not in the 1989 and 1993 campaigns changes in the political environment enforcement of audit and financial reporting requirements tougher imposition of hard budget constraints and the development of local media are proposed as explanations the hypotheses that the fiscal variables reflect the income level at the locality or the mayor s success in extracting resources from the central government are tested and rejected

political representation and public contracting evidence from municipal legislatures abstract this study examines how partisan representation in multiparty legislatures affects direct expenditures contract allocation design and selection of politically connected firms as suppliers in public procurement for identification i exploit quasi random variation in partisan electoral outcomes near the effective representation thresholds in czech proportional municipal elections my regression discontinuity estimates suggest that partisan representation matters for public procurement for instance if local level political parties barely enter legislatures at the expense of the national parties municipalities decrease their direct procurement spending and allocate fewer contracts to the corporate donors of the national parties fewer contracts are awarded especially in pre election years and in auctions restricting competition among procurement suppliers the results are not associated with higher government fragmentation or selection of more competent candidates but rather with reduced political power of the national parties

political business cycles 40 years after nordhaus the aim of this article is to survey the huge literature that has emerged in the last four decades following nordhaus s rev econ stud 42 2 169 190 1975 publication on political business cycles pbcs i first propose some developments in history of thought to examine the context in which this ground breaking contribution saw the light of the day i also present a simplified version of nordhaus s model to highlight his key results i detail some early critiques of this model and the fields of investigations to which they gave birth i then focus on the institutional context and examine its influence on pbcs the actual research agenda finally i derive some paths for future research

the economic and organizational basis of early united states strikes 1900 1948 this paper examines the question of whether economic factors played an important role in determining strike activity in the united states in the first half of the twentieth century a review of recent research shows one author david snyder concluding that economic factors mattered little during that period and that union organization and political variables explained much more and another p k edwards concluding the opposite a retest of these authors analyses employing ordinary least squares regression and a variety of measures suggests that snyder s position is more sound this author argues however that edwards was correct in claiming that economic factors are major determinants of the extent of unionism as well as of strike activity and thus one needs to apply a two stage least squares test of the snyder hypothesis when that is done the results show that economic variables are highly significant determinants of strike activity throughout the pre 1949 period but for the subperiod 1921 29

irrational workers the moral economy of labor protest in egypt after comparing the predictions of marxist moral economy and rational choice theories concerning collective actions by workers in egypt in the period since the 1952 free officers coup this article concludes that a moral economy perspective is best able to explain the nature and frequency of these protests the supporting evidence is the correlation between labor protest and violations of workers feelings of entitlement as manifest in declining real wages or disruptions to established patterns of wage differentials the targeting of state institutions combined with the fact that workers have eschewed actual production stoppages in favor of symbolic protests indicates a view of reciprocal rights and obligations between themselves and the state the latter reinforces the moral economy by combining significant concessions with its repressive response to labor protests marxism proves unable to explain the largely defensive and reactive nature of labor protest while rational choice theory is reduced to efforts to quantify workers reactions to this repression

effect of strike activity on firm value the article examines the stock market s reaction to labor management problems and employee strikes a discussion is presented about various categories of strike costs and cumulative abnormal return

logit estimates of strike incidence from canadian contract data logit estimates of strike incidence are made based on a unique and comprehensive data set of 2 437 collective agreements the appropriate level of aggregation since that is where bargaining occurs the results are interpreted through a theoretical framework emphasizing that strikes are more likely when the joint costs of using the strike mechanism are low relative to the cost of alternative mechanisms for achieving the same purposes such functions of strikes are to generate information elicit truth telling establish reputations provide catharsis and solve intraorganizational conflict

predictors of individual propensity to strike this article examines willingness to strike among 141 nonprofessional public school employees shortly before expiration of their contracts a questionnaire asked respondents how many days they would participate in any strike called by their union regardless of the issue or issues a strike for a low 10 wage increase and a strike for a high 24 wage increase the results suggest that the individual worker characteristics predictive of willingness to strike vary substantially among different strike goals for example it appears that militancy is related to striking for a high wage increase faithful union participation to striking in support of the union and neither to striking for a low wage increase suggesting that contrary to a common assumption not all strikes are sustained by militant workers

equilibrium political budget cycles political business cycle theories generally rely on nominal rigidities and voter myopia this paper offers an equilibrium theory that preserves some basic insights from earlier models though with significant refinements the political budget cycle emphasized here is in fiscal policy rather than output and inflation it arises via a multidimensional signal process one can consider the welfare implications of proposals to mitigate the cycle and the effects of altering the electoral structure copyright 1990 by american economic association

assessing the date of the global oil peak the need to use 2p reserves combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable 2p oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource limited peak of conventional oil production the data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close many analysts who rely only on proved 1p oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion but proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries being variously under reported over reported and not reported reliance on 1p data has led to a number of misconceptions including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to turn resources into reserves these misconceptions have been widely held including within academia governments some oil companies and organisations such as the iea in addition to conventional oil the world contains large quantities of non conventional oil most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non conventional oils are unlikely to come on stream fast enough to offset conventional s decline to determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non conventional oils as well as oil from gas coal and biomass and of oil substitution such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead times as well as rate constraints on investment pollution and net energy return

the electoral dynamics of human development this paper analyses the impact of elections on the dynamics of human development in a panel of 82 countries over the period 1980 2013 the incidence of partisan and political support effects is also taken into account a gmm estimator is employed in the empirical analysis and the results point out to the presence of an electoral cycle in the growth rate of human development majority governments also influence it but no clear evidence is found regarding partisan effects the electoral cycles have proved to be stronger in non oecd countries in countries with less frequent elections with lower levels of income and human development in presidential and non plurality systems and in proportional representation regimes they have also become more intense in this millennium

oil and revolutionary governments fuel for international conflict oil exporting states or petrostates engage in militarized interstate disputes mids at a much higher rate on average than nonpetrostates why is this so further what explains the variation among the petrostates in adopting aggressive foreign policies and engaging in mids on that basis this article develops a theory that proposes that revolutionary petrostates have a higher propensity to launch mids than comparable nonpetrostates this theory is tested with statistical analysis using a new quantitative data set that identifies revolutionary governments in the period 1945 2001 the results show that petro revolutionary governments constitute a special threat to international peace and security this evidence of resource backed aggression challenges the conventional view of petrostates as the targets of international competition for resources

the role of local officials in new democracies evidence from indonesia this paper shows that the body of appointed officials that a new democracy inherits from the previous regime is a key determinant of the extent of electoral fraud and clientelistic spending in new democracies i develop a model that predicts that appointed officials have stronger incentives to influence voters during national level elections because of their career concerns i test the implications of the model using data from indonesia s transition to democracy both the pattern of alignment of electoral results between village and district levels and the pattern of subsequent turnover of appointed village heads corroborate the predictions of the model

the emergence of political accountability when and how do democratic institutions deliver accountable government in addressing this broad question we focus on the role played by political norms specifically the extent to which leaders abuse office for personal gain and the extent to which citizens punish such transgressions we show how qualitatively distinct political norms can coexist because of a dynamic complementarity in which citizens willingness to punish transgressions is raised when they expect such punishments to be used in the future we seek to understand the emergence of accountability by analysing transitions between norms to do so we extend the analysis to include the possibility that at certain times a segment of voters are behaviorally intolerant of transgressions our mechanism highlights the role of leaders offering an account of how their actions can instigate enduring change within a fixed set of formal institutions by disrupting prevailing political norms we show how such changes do not depend on sun spots to trigger coordination and are asymmetric in effect a series of good leaders can and eventually will improve norms whereas bad leaders cannot damage them jel codes d72 p16 c73 copyright 2013 oxford university press

do the personal characteristics of finance ministers affect changes in public debt using a unique dataset of the personal characteristics of national finance ministers in western europe 1980 2010 i show that a finance minister s experience affects the national debt to gdp ratio the increase in the debt to gdp ratio is smaller if the finance minister stays in office for an additional year this result is robust to the inclusion of the personal characteristics of prime ministers and a measure of political stability however the magnitude of the effect is sensitive to how finance ministers are selected in the econometric model when more than one minister holds office during a particular year the estimation of interaction terms further reveals that experience particularly matters in election years or in times of negative gdp growth because an experienced finance minister has the power to restrict the usual increase in the debt to gdp ratio in contrast a finance minister s educational background and ideological leaning have no significant impact on the debt to gdp ratio

voting suffrage and the political budget cycle evidence from the london metropolitan boroughs 1902 1937 we study the opportunistic political budget cycle in the london metropolitan boroughs between 1902 and 1937 under two different suffrage regimes taxpayer suffrage 1902 1914 and universal suffrage 1921 1937 we argue and find supporting evidence that the political budget cycle operates differently under the two types of suffrage taxpayer suffrage where the right to vote and the obligation to pay local taxes are linked encourages demands for retrenchment and the political budget cycle manifests itself in election year tax cuts and savings on administration costs universal suffrage where all adult residents can vote irrespective of their taxpayer status creates demands for productive public services and the political budget cycle manifests itself in election year hikes in capital spending and a reduction in current spending

endogenous political turnover and fluctuations in sovereign default risk abstract a sovereign default model in which the sovereign derives private benefits from public office and contests elections to stay in power is developed the economy s growth process is modeled as a markov switching regime which is shown to be a better description of the data for our set of emerging economies in the model consistent with evidence the sovereign is less likely to be reelected if economic growth is weak in the low growth regime there is higher probability of loss of private benefits due to turnover which makes the sovereign behave more myopically this growth linked variation in effective discount factor is shown to be important in generating volatility in sovereign spreads

strikes are more common in countries with majoritarian electoral systems strikes are more common in those oecd countries where the legislature is elected in single member districts smd than in those where it is elected by proportional representation pr furthermore more working days are lost due to industrial conflict in countries with smd i suggest a politico economic explanation for these rarely noticed empirical regularities further empirical testing including controls drawn from previous strike research reveals that they hold up in a variety of econometric specifications

union competition and strikes the need for analysis at the sector level international comparative research has found that strike incidence is higher where two or more unions bargain with an employer multi unionism as is common in most european countries than where only one union does all else equal two proposed explanations for this relationship both invoking inter union rivalry as the main dynamic are that under multi unionism unions a make propagandistic use of strikes to attract members or b compete with each other by bidding up bargaining demands to date the evidence bearing on these hypotheses has been equivocal because the author argues researchers have focused on activity at the national level rather than at the lower levels that are more commonly the nexus for strike formation the author performs empirical tests using industry sector level data for seven european countries for the years 1990 2006 and finds evidence clearly favoring the competitive bargaining hypothesis over the propaganda hypothesis

taking stock collective bargaining at the turn of the century examining data from two national surveys of matched pairs of union and management lead negotiators the authors evaluate the current state of practice in labor relations and test several propositions related to the transformation of american industrial relations they find that 30 40 of the parties reported that they had introduced negotiated workplace level innovations or engaged in strategic level interactions both important aspects of transformation also nearly half of the parties reported experience with use of interest based bargaining practices at the same time relatively few parties reported relationships that were improving and views on the extent of change differed between labor and management thus there is an identifiable path supporting the transformation process but only a minority of bargaining relationships are moving down that path

exploring the bi directional long run relationship between energy consumption and life quality abstract this study aims at investigating the bi directional long run relationship for the period of 1990 2009 between energy consumption and life quality in 198 countries categorized by income level to achieve this goal the canonical cointegrating regression ccr was utilized the results revealed that energy consumption improves the life quality of 70 of the countries despite their different incomes the study s results unlike all other previous studies also revealed that the life quality indicators also increase energy consumption a phenomenon that appears to be true in 65 of the countries despite the fact that energy consumption plays an important role in achieving a better life quality the world still depends on fossil fuels which represent 81 of total energy consumption therefore it is suggested that these countries should rationalize their fossil fuel energy consumption by increasing the role of renewable energy and increasing their energy saving to improve life quality without causing any damage to the environment

cost of living adjustment clauses in union contracts a summary of results our paper provides an explanation why cost of living adjustment cola provisions and their characteristics vary widely across u s industries we develop models of optimal risk sharing between a firm and union to investigate the determinants of a number of contract characteristics these include the presence and degree of wage indexing the magnitude of deferred noncontingent wage increases contract duration and the trade off between temporary layoffs and wage indexing preliminary empirical tests of some of the implications of the model are described one key finding is that the level of unemployment insurance benefits appears to influence the level of layoffs and the extent of cola coverage simultaneously

bargaining theory inflation and cyclical strike activity in manufacturing this paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of cyclical movements in strike activity the first part of the paper develops a bargaining model that demonstrates the crucial role of limi

a structural model of electoral accountability this paper proposes a structural approach to measuring the eects of electoral ac countability we estimate a political agency model with imperfect information in order to identify and quantify discipline and selection eects using data on u s governors for 1982 2012 we nd that the possibility of reelection provides a signi cant incentive for incumbents to exert eort we also nd a selection eect although it is weaker in terms of its eect on average governor performance according to our model the widely used two term regime improves voter welfare by 4 2 compared to a one term regime and nd that a three term regime may improve voter welfare even further

transaction cost economics and cross national patterns of industrial conflict a comparative institutional analysis at the core of a capitalist system is an implied coalition between labor and capital built upon a system of exchange and compromise without capital the material condition upon which labor s interests are realized would be impossible likewise without labor s consent to exchange wages for future investment capital could not procure the profits and savings necessary for its reproduction and transformation organizing stable and cost efficient class coalitions has long been recognized as not merely an economic priority but a political challenge yet some democracies have met this challenge more successfully than others for the student of comparative political economy an enduring question remains why the present study is an attempt to provide an answer that complements and integrates the more common macroand microanalytic studies of industrial conflict it is argued here that a useful approach is to explicate some of the major microeconomic dynamics that condition exchanges between labor and capital and to demonstrate how institutional devices designed to accommodate political representation and conflict resolution facilitate or impede the process of class compromise by employing the logic of transaction cost economics the analysis highlights the comparative institutional elements fundamental to economizing on the costs of exchange shaping consensus within a political economy s industrial relations system the resulting transaction cost efficiency model of industrial conflict specifies the ex ante cost factors price margin of transaction and the institutional control of bounded rationality and the ex post cost factors legislative polarized pluralism executive hegemony and the frequency of general elections central to the process of building and sustaining class coalitions the model is tested on data drawn from 19 democracies covering the years 1965 83 use of simulation models reveals the relative trade offs associated with different patterns of ex ante and ex post cost structures

energy and carbon embodied in the international trade of brazil an input output approach abstract all goods and services produced in an economy are directly and or indirectly associated with energy use and according to the type of fuel utilized with co2 emissions as well international trade is an important factor in shaping the industrial structure of a country and consequently in affecting a country s energy use and co2 emissions this study applies input output techniques to the brazilian economy to evaluate the total impacts of international trade on its energy use and co2 emissions a commodity by industry io model in hybrid units energy commodities in physical units and non energy commodities in monetary units is applied to the brazilian economy in 1995 results show that total energy embodied in the exports of non energy goods of brazil equals 831 pj while total carbon embodied is 13 5 mtc these amounts are larger than the relevant amounts embodied in the imports of non energy goods respectively 679 pj and 9 9 mtc these figures are better understood by contrasting them with the total energy use and the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 estimated by this work 6781 pj and 99 4 mtc respectively this means that international inflows and outflows of energy embodied in non energy goods are in the order of 10 and 12 of the total energy use while inflows and outflows of carbon embodied in non energy goods are approximately 10 and 14 of the corresponding total carbon emissions of the brazilian economy in 1995 the general picture is that brazil is not only a net exporter of energy 153 pj and of carbon 3 6 mtc embodied in the non energy goods internationally traded by the country in 1995 but also that each dollar earned with exports embodied 40 more energy and 56 more carbon than each dollar spent on imports these findings suggest that brazilian policy makers should be concerned about the extra impacts international trade policy may have on energy use and carbon emissions of the country

the specification of econometric strike models a varma approach in the case of macro econometric strike models classical regression techniques do not deal with important specification issues 1 the question of causality between strikes and other variables 2 the choice of appropriate lag structures and 3 omitted variable bias moreover since rational bargainers would tend to avoid previous bargaining mistakes the determinants of strike activity in a given period may not apply in subsequent periods this study attempts to model post war us strike behaviour beacuse of the spurious regression problems vector autoregressive moving average varma techniques are preferred to standard regression methods for the early post war period strikes are successfully modelled in terms of unemployment and wage and price inflation there is no feedback from strikes to the other variables contrary to the predominant view that us strikes are more frequent when real wage increases are small increasing rates of wage change both real and nominal lead to more strikes for t

effects of union organization on strike incidence in eu companies the author reinvestigates the relationship between the organizational power of trade unions and strikes based on data from the european company survey 2009 ecs 2009 and the institutional characteristics of trade unions wage setting state intervention and social pacts ictwss database which include more than 5 000 firms across all 27 european union eu member states he shows that the incidence of strikes is higher in companies for which workplace union membership is high the number of workplace unions is high and unions dominate establishment level works councils these factors interact to affect strike incidence in addition the company level effects of union organization on strike incidence vary across countries these country differences can partially be explained by differences in national trade union systems such as decentralization and membership density

do better paid politicians perform better disentangling incentives from selection the wage paid to politicians affects both the choice of citizens to run for office and the performance of those who are appointed first if skilled individuals shy away from politics because of higher opportunities in the private sector an increase in politicians pay may change their mind second if the re election prospects of incumbents depend on their in office deeds a higher wage may foster performance we use data on all italian municipal governments from 1993 to 2001 and test these hypotheses in a quasi experimental setup in italy the wage of mayors depends on population size and sharply rises at different thresholds we apply a regression discontinuity design to the only threshold that uniquely identifies a wage increase 5 000 inhabitants exploiting the existence of a two term limit we further disentangle the composition from the incentive component of the effect of the wage on performance our results show that a higher wage attracts more educated candidates and that better paid politicians size down the government machinery by improving efficiency importantly most of this effect is driven by the selection of competent politicians rather than by the incentive to be re elected

incomes policies inflation and strikes in nigeria 1950 1985 an empirical investigation the effects of incomes policies and inflation on the incidence of strikes in nigeria for the 1950 1985 period are examined studies have analysed extensively the determinants of strike activity in developed countries however relatively little empirical analysis of strike determinants in less developed countries exists an attempt is made to fill this gap by including key economic organizational and institutional variables into a model that is capable of predicting the variations in strikes in nigeria a developing country with a growing unionized sector the estimated results of the model show that strikes in nigeria are positively influenced by the level of inflation the level of union membership incomes policies and time trend

energy and quality of life energy is required to sustain life a human centered analysis of the worldwide energy situation is conducted in terms of quality of life related variables that are affected but not directly determined by energy consumption data since 1980 show a continuous global increase in both energy consumption and quality of life and lower population growth in countries with higher quality of life based on these trends we advance non linear energy consumption predictions and identify various plausible scenarios to optimally steer future energy demands in order to maximize quality of life the scenarios consider the coupling between energy consumption rate per capita quality of life population growth social inequality and governments energy for life efficiency the results show the energy cost of increasing quality of life in the developing world energy savings that can be realized by limiting overconsumption without impacting quality of life and the role of governments on increasing energy for life efficiency and reducing social inequality

electoral manipulation via voter friendly spending theory and evidence abstract we present a model of the political budget cycle in which incumbents try to influence voters by changing the composition of government spending rather than overall spending or revenues rational voters may support an incumbent who targets them with spending before the election even though such spending may be due to opportunistic manipulation because it may also reflect sincere preference of the incumbent for types of spending voters favor classifying expenditures into those which are likely targeted to voters and those that are not we provide evidence supporting our model in data on local public finances for all colombian municipalities our findings indicate both a pre electoral increase in targeted expenditures combined with a contraction of other types of expenditure and a voter response to targeting

longitudinal analysis of strike activity this article presents an empirical study of strike activity in a panel of contract negotiations for some 250 firm and union pairs evidence is presented on two sources of variation in dispute rates changes in the characteristics of the collective bargaining agreement that affect subsequent strike outcomes and the effects of lagged strikes on the incidence and duration of subsequent disputes strike probabilities are significantly affected by the duration and expiration month of the previous agreement dispute rates are also increased by the occurrence of a short strike during the previous negotiations and reduced by the occurrence of a long strike

collective bargaining in small firms preliminary evidence of fundamental change this analysis of 481 negotiations in michigan over the period 1987 91 suggests that fundamental changes may have occurred recently in collective bargaining in small firms only 33 of the negotiations conformed to the traditional model of arm s length collective bargaining the balance involved either highly contentious or highly cooperative relations further in only one sixth 17 of the cases was the contract settled within one week before or after the contract expiration delays were more common and longer in negotiations in which settlements were implemented unilaterally by management over labor s objections than in cases involving strikes concessions figured prominently in the majority of the negotiations in the sample with a shift from wage to benefit concessions occurring during the period examined

the effect of labour relations legislation on strike incidence the impact on strike incidence of nine labour relations policy variables representing legislation in eleven canadian jurisdictions is estimated using logit analysis of 3 347 individual collective agreements mandatory strike votes compulsory dues check off and compulsory conciliation boards are associated with significantly lower strike probabilities prohibition of replacement workers and employer initiated strike votes are associated with significantly higher strike probabilities no significant association was found between strike incidence and the length of cooling off period following conciliation and negotiated or automatic reopeners policy impacts are interpreted in a framework emphasizing the influence of asymmetric inforrnation and joint costs on strikes

bridging the energy divide and securing higher collective well being in a climate constrained world abstract despite the impressive gains in available energy over the last 200 years the associated benefits remain unevenly distributed bridging this divide only adds to the already daunting challenge of securing climate stabilization in fact efforts towards the former are more likely to conflict with the latter to be able to address this dilemma the relationship between energy consumption and human well being beyond its economic dimension needs to be better understood this paper aims to contribute to the emerging knowledge base by examining this relationship using a proxy for human well being that also considers its environmental and social dimensions the ultimate goal of this paper is to investigate the potential incompatibility between efforts towards the achievement of higher collective well being and those associated with climate stabilization to this end it provides estimates of the additional energy needed and its associated carbon emissions under different climate scenarios and compares them with existing carbon budgets results indicate that even if new climate policies were adopted emissions associated with higher well being in all regions where improvements are needed could still reach up to one and a half times estimated 2 c budgets and even more so for lower temperature increase targets

bargaining as search behavior under mutual uncertainty this paper presents a model of bargaining and strikes that differs from much of the existing literature it is based on the proposal by hicks 4 that a strike is a mistake the bargaining process is therefore conceived in this paper as a bilateral search problem in which both labor envisaged here as the union or union leadership and management seek the best possible position that is acceptable to the opposition a strike results when neither party makes an acceptable proposal before the end of the existing contract most previous models can be classified as either bargaining models that employ nash s assumption of pareto efficient outcomes or strike models that follow the ashenfelter johnson framework 8 1 in the latter framework the firm is viewed as an omniscient profitmaximizer that faces a constraint imposed by the concession schedule of the union this schedule as farber notes may not reflect economically rational choices of wage increases and strikes by workers 2 262 thus while the ashenfelter johnson model may serve as a reduced form representation of bargaining outcomes it fails to provide a price theoretic model of the structure of the bargaining process hayes attempts to reconcile the ashenfelterjohnson model with price theoretic behavior by viewing strikes as an optimal contracting process when labor lacks information possessed by the firm 3 hayes however retains the notion of profit maximization subject to a concession curve by assuming that the union presents ex ante a menu of wage strike combinations to the firm the basic structure of the bargaining process that both parties make and respond to offers is therefore ignored as in kaufman 5 this model stresses the bilateral nature of bargaining unlike kaufman emphasis is placed on the structure and object of the search process it is assumed that both parties formulate reservation positions wages above or below which continued conflict is preferred bargaining represents the attempt by each side to find or influence the reservation position of the opposition in the next section the formulation and revision of reservation positions is explored these positions need not move in a specific direction for either party unless assumptions are made regarding the values of specific variables the smoothly declining concession schedule

the political economy of fiscal deficits a survey this paper surveys recent literature both theoretical and empirical regarding political explanations for fiscal deficits political economy suggests conflicts of interest may lie behind the emergence of deficits 1 opportunistic politicians generate deficits to win elections even in conflict with general welfare 2 conflicts of interests between politicians partisan preferences create incentives for at least some incumbents to run deficits and 3 conflicts of interest between different social groups or regions generate tensions in the allocation of government resources leading to overspending this paper reviews these different strands of the literature it also covers contributions that highlight the crucial role of budget institutions in determining the extent to which the political motivations to generate deficits are indeed translated into poor fiscal outcomes promising avenues for future research are highlighted

persistence of politicians and firms innovation we empirically investigate whether the persistence of politicians in political institutions affects the innovation activity of firms we use 12 000 firm level observations from three waves of the italian observatory over small and medium enterprises and introduce a measure of political persistence defined as the average length of individual political careers in political institutions of italian municipalities standard ols shows no raw correlation between political persistence and firms innovation activity however once the causal effect is isolated by means of instrumental variables using death of politicians as an exogenous source of variation of political persistence we find a robust negative relation between political persistence and the probability of process innovation this finding is consistent with the view that political stability may hinder firms incentive to innovate to maintain their competitiveness as long as they can extract rents from long term connections with politicians

the determinants of strikes in the united states 1900 1977 this study aims to assess the recent debate that has emerged in the literature over the economic and organizational political models of strikes and to propose and test a synthesis of those models as an explanation for the pattern of strike activity in the united states since 1900 the paper begins with a review of strike activity in the post 1900 period and then develops a conceptual framework incorporating six factors the size of union membership economic conditions political events institutional arrangements psychological variables and the extent of rival unionism to explain this historical pattern the second part of the paper contains a regression analysis of strike activity over the 1900 1977 period the regression results show that both the economic factors of unemployment and inflation and various noneconomic factors such as changes in union membership the outbreak of world war ii and enactment of new deal legislation are significant in explaining variations in strike activity during t

trigger points and budget cuts explaining the effects of fiscal austerity we propose and solve an optimizing model which explains counterintuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations if government spending follows an upward trending stochastic process which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific trigger points then optimizing consumption behavior and simple budget constraint arithmetic imply a nonlinear relationship between private consumption and government spending this theoretical relation is consistent with the experience of several countries jel e62 e21 textbook aggregate demand models suggest simple relationships between the government budget and economic activity a cut in the government deficit for example depressing consumption and output though such models heavily influence the design of stabilization policies their micro foundations are unclear and their sharp predictions are not always consistent with reality in many countries large cuts in government spending carried out as part of stabilization programs have led to expansions rather than contractions in economic activity the absence of simple relationships be

the determinants of strike incidence and severity a micro level study this paper investigates the determinants of strike incidence and severity during labor contract negotiations the author develops a model that considers the forces influencing both unions willingness to strike and employers willingness to take a strike and estimates it using data describing 1 050 negotiations in u s manufacturing during the 1971 80 period the results indicate that strike incidence is influenced by the gender composition of the labor force demand fluctuations in the product market location in a right to work state the number of workers in the bargaining unit union density in the industry and the extent to which wages kept pace with inflation over the prior contract period on the other hand neither the local unemployment rate when negotiations began nor the inflation rate over the term of the expiring contract influenced strike incidence or severity in this sample