the value of operational flexibility in the presence of input and output price uncertainties with oil refining applications refining is indispensable to almost every natural resource based commodity industry it involves a series of complex processes that transform inputs with a wide range of quality characteristics into refined finished products sold to end markets in this paper we take the perspective of a profit maximizing refiner that considers upgrading its existing simple refinery to include intermediate conversion flexibility i e the capability of converting heavy intermediate components to light ones we present a stylized two stage stochastic programming model of a petroleum refinery to investigate the value drivers of conversion flexibility and the impact of input and output market conditions on its economic potential conversion flexibility adds value to refineries by either transforming a nonprofitable situation into a profitable one referred to as purchase benefit or improving profitability of an already profitable situation referred to as unit revenue benefit in a real data calibrated numerical study w

optimal investment strategies for flexible resources considering pricing and correlated demands we study the optimal resource investment decision faced by a two product price setting firm that operates in a monopolistic setting and employs a postponed pricing scheme the firm has the option to invest in dedicated resources as well as a more expensive flexible resource that can satisfy both products while the resource investment decision is made under demand uncertainty pricing and resource allocation decisions are postponed to the time when demand curves are realized our analysis provides the structure of the firm s optimal resource investment strategy as a function of demand parameters and investment costs and shows that the flexible resource investment decision follows athreshold policy we also show that it can be optimal for the firm to invest in the flexible resource even when demand patterns are perfectly positively correlated the reason for flexible capacity investment in this case is financial rather than risk pooling on the other hand we show that it can be optimal for the firm not to invest in the flexible resource even when demand patterns are perfectly negatively correlated the flexible resource investment decision in this case depends on the profitability of the two products based on our analysis we provide principles on the firm s optimal resource investment decision

resource flexibility with responsive pricing this article studies two types of flexibility used by firms to better respond to uncertain market conditions resource flexibility and responsive pricing we consider a situation in which a single flexible resource can be used to satisfy two distinct demand classes while the resource capacity must be decided based on uncertain demand functions the resource allocation as well as the pricing decision are made based on the realized demand functions we characterize the effects of two key drivers of flexibility demand variability and demand correlation assuming normally distributed demand curve intercepts demand variability creates opportunity costs and with fixed prices decreases the firm s profit we show that with the additional flexibility gained from responsive pricing the firm can maximize the benefits of favorable demand conditions and mitigate the effects of poor demand conditions ultimately profiting from variability positive demand correlation on the other hand remains undesirable under responsive pricing the optimal capacity of the flexible resource is always increasing in both demand variability and demand correlation this contrasts with the scenarios based on fixed prices highlighting the crucial difference that responsive pricing makes in the management of flexible resources we further quantify the value of flexibility for the firm and its customers by considering as a benchmark a firm relying on two dedicated resources the value of flexibility is most significant if the demand levels are highly variable and negatively correlated in such cases the firm benefits from demand variability due to responsive pricing while facing limited demand risk due to resource flexibility finally we endogenize the input price of the flexible resource by considering the pricing decision of the resource supplier

who benefits from transshipment exogenous vs endogenous wholesale prices this paper studies how transshipments affect manufacturers and retailers considering both exogenous and endogenous wholesale prices for a distribution system where a single manufacturer sells to multiple identical cost retailers we consider both the manufacturer being a price taker and the manufacturer being a price setter in a single period setup under multivariate normal demand distribution in the case of the manufacturer being a price taker we provide several analytical results regarding the effects of key parameters on order quantities and profits in the case of the manufacturer being a price setter we characterize the stackelberg game that arises and provide several insights into how the game dynamics are affected by transshipments specifically we find that risk pooling makes retailers order quantities less sensitive to the wholesale price set by the manufacturer hence in general the manufacturer benefits from retailers transshipments by charging a higher wholesale price while retailers are often worse off the paper captures the effect of demand correlation and the effect of the number of retailers throughout and it illustrates the findings by a numerical example we also provide an interactive web page for numerical experiments

equilibrium with product differentiation tive consumer formulations is used to examine the properties of single and multiple price equilibria conditions under which decreases in the intensity of consumer preferences reduce price are given it is shown that with certain types of demand curves entry can eliminate price cost markups even given product differentiation if competition is localized it is demonstrated that entry does not affect the markup finally the effect of spurious product differentiation on price is examined

strategic investments trading and pricing under forecast updating this paper considers two independent firms that invest in resources such as capacity or inventory based on imperfect market forecasts as time progresses and new information becomes available the firms update their forecasts and have the option to trade their resources the trade contract is determined as the bargaining equilibrium or alternatively as the price equilibrium assuming a fairly general form of the profit functions we characterize the nash equilibrium investment levels which are first best under the price equilibrium trade contract but not under the bargaining equilibrium trade contract to gain additional insights we then focus on firms that face stochastic demand functions with constant price elasticity and have contingent pricing power assuming a general forecast evolution process we characterize the impact of the option to trade and the firms cooperation on equilibrium investments expected prices profits and consumer surplus finally to study the main driving forces of trading we employ a well established and empirically tested forecast updating model in which the forecast evolution process follows a two dimensional geometric brownian motion under this model we prove that the equilibrium investments expected prices profits and consumer surplus are nondecreasing in the quality and timing of forecast revisions in market variability and in foreign exchange volatility but are nonincreasing in market correlation

technological extinctions of industrial firms an inquiry into their nature and causes after a buildup in the number of firms new industries commonly experience a shakeout in which the number of firms declines sharply three theoretical perspectives on how technological change contributes to industry shakeouts are analyzed the theories are used to synthesize predictions concerning technological change and industry evolution the predictions inform an analysis of four us industries that experienced sharp shakeouts automobiles tires televisions and penicillin using data on firm participation and innovation from the commercial inception of the four products through their formative eras we uncover regularities in how the products evolved the regularities suggest that shakeouts are not triggered by particular technological innovations nor by dominant designs but by an evolutionary process in which technological innovation contributes to a mounting dominance by some early entering firms copyright 1997 by oxford university press

role of risk aversion in price postponement under supply random yield price postponement is an effective mechanism to hedge against the adverse effect of supply random yield however its effectiveness and the resulting production decisions have not been studied for

an integrated revenue management framework for a firm s greening pricing and inventory decisions abstract there is a growing interest on developing efficient ways of incorporating environmental considerations into business practices in order to meet both consumers demand for green products services and the firms sustainable profitability the main contribution of this article is in developing an integrated revenue management framework to address a firm s greening investment effort pricing and inventory decisions it is assumed that the firm inaugurates a green product along with its existing product even though the firm offers both the green and regular product at differentiated prices the market segmentation as a result of this price differentiation is regarded as imperfect this imperfect market segmentation causes a demand leakage mainly due to the heterogeneity among the customers willingness to pay these effects are included in our proposed model and simplified analytical solutions are developed to solve the same additional scenarios where a firm experiences a price dependent stochastic demand with an unknown distribution is also modeled this scenario is addressed using a distribution free approach based on scarf s rule the performance of the proposed methods and the significance of the modeling framework are finally corroborated through several simulations this analysis provides a sustainable environment production and retailing framework while still augmenting profitability using fundamental tools from revenue management

strategic technology choice and capacity investment under demand uncertainty this paper studies the impact of competition on a firm s choice of technology product flexible or product dedicated and capacity investment decisions specifically we model two firms competing with each other in two markets characterized by price dependent and uncertain demand the firms make three decisions in the following sequence choice of technology technology game capacity investment capacity game and production quantities production game the technology and capacity games occur while the demand curve is still uncertain and the production game is postponed until after the demand curve is revealed we develop best response functions for each firm in the technology game and compare how a monopolist and a duopolist respond to a given flexibility premium we show that the firms may respond to competition by adopting a technology which is the same as or different from what the competitor adopts we conclude that contrary to popular belief flexibility is not always the best response to competition flexible and dedicated technologies may coexist in equilibrium we demonstrate that as the difference between the two market sizes increases a duopolist is willing to pay less for flexible technology whereas the decision of a monopolist is not affected further we find that a firm that invests in flexibility benefits from a low correlation between demands for two products but the extent of this benefit differs depending on the competitor s technology choice our results indicate that higher demand substitution may or may not promote the adoption of flexibility under competition whereas it always facilitates the adoption of flexibility without competition finally we show that contrary to intuition as the competitor s cost of capacity increases the premium a flexible firm is willing to pay for flexibility decreases

optimal capacity for substitutable products under operational postponement abstract we consider a monopolist producing two substitutable products with one flexible shared capacity the demand of each product is a linear function of the prices of both products and is subject to an additive shock we study the impact of two key drivers namely the degree of substitution between the products and the level of operational postponement on the optimal capacity and the resulting expected profit we show that the relationship between the optimal capacity and the degree of product substitution is not impacted by the different postponement strategies the firm can utilize or by the different settings forced clearance versus holdback considered in the previous literature on the other hand how capacity is affected by postponement critically depends on how closely substitutable the products are in particular we show that the well known result that operational postponement and capacity are strategic complements in a single product setting van mieghem and dada 1999 no longer holds in our setting because the two substitutable products are now linked through consumer driven substitution which the firm can influence through pricing in particular capacity and operational postponement in the form of quantity postponement can be either strategic substitutes or strategic complements and this depends on both the firm s cost structure and the degree of substitution between the products we also study the impact of forced clearance on the firm s expected profit and find that clearance deteriorates the firm s earnings more when the products it offers are highly differentiated

optimal investment in product flexible manufacturing capacity this paper presents a model and an analysis of the cost flexibility tradeoffs involved in investing in product flexible manufacturing capacity flexible capacity provides a firm with the ability to respond to a wide variety of future demand outcomes but at the expense of the increased cost of acquiring flexible manufacturing capacity as compared with dedicated or nonflexible capacity we formulate the product flexible manufacturing capacity investment decision as a two stage stochastic program in the first stage the firm must make its investment decision in manufacturing capacity before the resolution of uncertainty in product demand in the second stage after demand for products are known the firm implements its production decisions constrained by the first stage investments the main contributions of this paper are threefold first we develop a model of the firm s flexible manufacturing investment decision that conceptually captures some of the key characteristics of this complex decision probl

international regimes and alliance behavior explaining nato conventional force levels with the end of the cold war the military posture of the north atlantic treaty organization nato has entered a period of profound change prior to the recent dramatic political events in europe however nato conventional force levels in the central region had been remarkably stable for some three decades this article seeks to explain this record of stability in terms of three widely used theories of international relations it argues that balance of power theory and public goods theory cannot alone provide a satisfactory account rather these traditional approaches for understanding alliance behavior must be supplemented by regime theory which emphasizes the constraining effects of enduring institutional factors even in the face of structural change specifically it shows how an international regime has influenced the provision of conventional forces in the central region by alliance members more generally this analysis seeks to contribute to the literature on international regimes in three ways first it demonstrates that regimes do matter by providing an example of their importance for explaining state behavior and international outcomes second it extends regime theory to relations among military allies third it elaborates a comprehensive model for understanding why states actually comply with regime injunctions the model stresses both the ways in which regimes effectively modify the international environment within which states operate altering the costs and benefits associated with different courses of action and the ways in which participating states may internalize regime norms and rules thereby making compliance increasingly automatic

entry deterrence by timing rather than overinvestment in a strategic real options framework this paper examines a dynamic incumbent entrant framework with stochastic evolution of the inverse demand in which both the optimal timing of the investments and the capacity choices are explicitly considered we find that the incumbent invests earlier than the entrant and that entry deterrence is achieved through timing rather than through overinvestment this is because the incumbent invests earlier and in a smaller amount compared to a scenario without potential entry if on the other hand the size of the investment is exogenously given the investment order changes and the entrant invests before the incumbent does

flexible service capacity optimal investment and the impact of demand correlation we consider a firm that provides multiple services using both specialized and flexible capacity the problem is formulated as a two stage single period stochastic program the firm invests in capacity before the actual demand is known and optimally assigns capacity to customers when demand is realized sample applications include a car rental company s use of mid sized cars to satisfy unexpectedly high demand for compact cars and an airline s use of business class seats to satisfy economy class demand we obtain an analytical solution for a particular case when services may be upgraded by one class the simple form of the solution allows us to compare the optimal capacities explicitly with a solution that does not anticipate flexibility given that demand follows a multivariate normal distribution we analytically characterize the effects of increasing demand correlation on the optimal solution for the case with two customer classes the effects of demand correlation are intuitive increasing correlation induces a shift from flexible to dedicated capacity when there are three or more classes there are also adjustments to the resources not directly affected by the correlation change as correlation rises these changes follow an alternating pattern for example if the optimal capacity of one resource rises then the optimal capacity of the adjacent resource falls these results make precise conjectures based on numerical experiments that have existed in the literature for some time

power and interdependence revisited ten years ago we published power and interdependence 1 the passage of a decade makes this an appropriate time to reread and reevaluate that book and to take stock of the research program to which it contributed in doing this we hope to deepen and enrich scholarly understanding of the politics of interdependence and to stimulate reflection on directions for the field of international relations over the next decade 2 such a reappraisal seems particularly opportune given the changes in world politics and especially in american policy that have marked the intervening years stanley j michalak commented in 1979 that the authors may cringe from the analogy but power and interdependence may well become the politics among nations of the 1970s 3 but from the perspective of the late 1980s the world may look different while the 1970s were seen as the decade of interdependence many observers regard the use of force and concern for security as characteristic of the 1980s indeed the view is widespread in some circles that the 1980s resemble the 1950s more than the 1970s and that hans j morgenthau s work is more relevant to contemporary issues of world politics than power and interdependence

optimal ordering and pricing strategies in the presence of a b2b spot market abstract in the current paper we examine the effect of a b2b spot market on the strategic behavior and the performance of a reseller who continues to use the traditional channel while participating in a b2b spot market we analyze the case in which a risk neutral reseller faces an additive or multiplicative demand function and identify sufficient conditions under which the optimal order quantity and retail price exist and are unique we then analytically examine the case in which a risk averse reseller participates in a fully liquid spot market we also study numerically how varying liquidity spot price volatility demand variability and correlation coefficient affect a firm s strategies and performance we find that demand variability significantly affects both pricing and ordering strategies whereas the spot price volatility has less influence on pricing decisions our results also show that for a risk averse reseller to charge a lower retail price when the spot market liquidity increases is desirable we further show that a b2b spot market cannot always improve a reseller s utility these findings shed light on how resellers can adjust their procurement and pricing strategies to align with the new business environment created by the emergence of b2b spot markets as well as have obvious implications for the development of a b2b spot market

yield optimization of display advertising with ad exchange it is clear from the growing role of ad exchanges in the real time sale of advertising slots that web publishers are considering a new alternative to their more traditional reservation based ad contracts to make this choice the publisher must trade off in real time the short term revenue from ad exchange with the long term benefits of delivering good spots to the reservation ads in this paper we formalize this combined optimization problem as a multiobjective stochastic control problem and derive an efficient policy for online ad allocation in settings with general joint distribution over placement quality and exchange prices we prove the asymptotic optimality of this policy in terms of any arbitrary trade off between the quality of delivered reservation ads and revenue from the exchange and we show that our policy approximates any pareto optimal point on the quality versus revenue curve experimental results on data derived from real publisher inventory confirm that there are significant benefits

optimal flexibility configurations in newsvendor networks going beyond chaining and pairing we study the classical problem of capacity and flexible technology selection with a newsvendor network model of resource portfolio investment the resources differ by their level of flexibility where level k flexibility refers to the ability to process k different product types we present an exact set theoretic methodology to analyze newsvendor networks with multiple products and parallel resources this simple approach is sufficiently powerful to prove that i flexibility exhibits decreasing returns and ii the optimal portfolio will invest in at most two adjacent levels of flexibility in symmetric systems and to characterize iii the optimal flexibility configuration for asymmetric systems as well the optimal flexibility configuration can serve as a theoretical performance benchmark for other configurations suggested in the literature for example although chaining is not optimal in our setting the gap is small and the inclusion of scale economies quickly favors chaining over pairing we also demonstrate how this methodology can be applied to other settings such as product substitution and queuing systems with parameter uncertainty

unimodality of price setting newsvendor s objective function with multiplicative demand and its applications abstract we present a general solution framework for the price setting newsvendor problem with a multiplicative stochastic demand under mild assumptions such as increasing price elasticity on the mean demand function and increasing generalized failure rate on the distribution of the random factor we first prove that both the profit function with respect to price and its derived function with respect to order quantity are quasi concave three applications are then studied under our solution framework 1 we consider a wholesale price only contract by which a manufacturer sets a wholesale price and a newsvendor determines an order quantity and the retail price and show that the manufacturer s profit function is unimodal with respect to retailing price or stocking factor under certain conditions 2 we consider a newsvendor problem in which the demand depends on both the retail price and the level of sales effort and the cost exerting the sales effort is proportional to the order quantity we prove that there exists a unique pair of price and sales effort levels that maximize the total profit this result is established under a set of mild assumptions on the demand and cost functions 3 we identify a property in the single period profit function that satisfies condition 1 of huh and janakiraman 2008 which in turn guarantees the optimality of s s policy for an infinite stationary dynamic inventory price control system with lost sales and fixed order costs finally the unimodality of the newsvendor problem with a general stochastic and price sensitive demand is studied

optimal price and product quality decisions in a distribution channel this paper studies a joint pricing and product quality decision problem in a distribution channel in which a manufacturer sells a product through a retailer the manufacturer jointly determines the wholesale price and quality of the product and the retailer determines the retail price we find that if the marginal revenue function is strictly concave then the manufacturer chooses a lower product quality level than if selling the product directly to customers if the marginal revenue function is affine then the manufacturer s optimal product quality decision is independent of the distribution channel structure if the marginal revenue function is strictly convex then the manufacturer chooses a higher product quality level than if selling the product directly to customers

comparative statics analysis of multiproduct newsvendor networks under responsive pricing we propose a novel analytic approach for the comparative statics analysis of multiproduct multiresource newsvendor networks under responsive pricing our approach involves exploiting the properties of the primal mathematical programming formulation and of the dual variables and linking those properties to the concept of convex orders and to properties of the underlying demand function the use of convex orders allows us to establish our main results without restriction to a specific demand distribution a major strength of our approach is that it is scalable i e it applies to newsvendor networks with any number of nonindependent i e demand or resource sharing products and resources without an exponential increase in effort as problem size increases this is unlike the current approaches commonly used in the operations management literature which typically involve a parametric analysis of the recourse problem followed by the use of jacobians and the implicit function theorem providing a rigorous framework for comparative statics analysis which can be applied to other problems that are not amenable to traditional parametric analysis is our main contribution we demonstrate this approach on the optimal capacity decision problem in multiproduct newsvendor networks under responsive pricing formulated as a two stage stochastic programming problem with recourse the firm determines the resource capacities ex ante in the first stage when demand intercepts are uncertain and makes the pricing and production decisions ex post in the second stage when demand intercepts e g market conditions are fully observed this particular problem and its variants are well studied in the operations management literature a comparative statics analysis is integral to the study of the capacity investment decision as it allows answers to important questions such as the following does the firm acquire more or less of the different resources available as demand uncertainty increases does the firm benefit from an increase in demand uncertainty using our proposed approach we establish comparative statics results on how the newsvendor s expected profit and optimal capacity decision change with demand risk in multiproduct multiresource newsvendor networks we also extend our analysis to the study of demand dependence in two product networks

optimal pricing and inventory control policy with quantity based price differentiation a firm facing price dependent stochastic demand aims to maximize its total expected profit over a planning horizon in addition to the regular unit selling price the firm can utilize quantity discounts to increase sales we refer to this dual pricing strategy as quantity based price differentiation at the beginning of each period the firm needs to make three decisions replenish the inventory set the unit selling price if the unit sales mode is deployed and set the quantity discount price if the quantity sales mode is deployed or the combination of the two modes of sales we identify conditions under which the optimal inventory control policy and selling pricing strategy is well structured remarkably under a utility based demand framework these conditions can be unified by a simple regularity assumption that has long been used in the auction and mechanism design literature moreover sharper structural results are yielded for the optimal selling strategy we also examine the comparative advantag

nuclear learning and u s soviet security regimes the concepts of regimes and learning have been developed in the liberal theory of international relations but their application has been mostly in the area of international political economy u s soviet relations are generally explained solely in terms of realist theory the dichotomy is unfortunate because both strands of theory have something to contribute although the injunctions of an overall regime do not govern the u s soviet security relationship it is possible to identify the injunctions and constraining effects of regimes in subissues of the security relationship in five areas of the nuclear relationship destructive power control problems proliferation arms race stability and deterrent force structure it is possible to identify different degrees of learning and to see how such learning affects and is affected by the development of regimes looking at the u s soviet security relationship in terms of learning and regimes raises new questions and opens a research agenda which helps us to think more broadly about the processes of political change in this area

strategic facility location capacity acquisition and technology choice decisions under demand uncertainty robust vs non robust optimization approaches abstract this paper presents a robust optimization ro modeling approach to develop insights into strategic capacity planning and resource acquisition decisions including the facility location problem and the technology choice problem the main purpose of the proposed model and numerical experiments is to examine the effects of economies of scale economies of scope and the combined effects of scale and scope under uncertain demand realizations using robust optimization the type of capacities or technology alternatives that a firm can acquire can be classified on two basic dimensions the first dimension relates to the effects of scale via distinction between labor intensive technologies and capital intensive technologies the second dimension relates to the effects of scope via distinction between product dedicated and flexible technologies moreover each product dedicated and flexible technology can have different levels of labor or capital intensity leading to the joint effects of economies of scale and economies of scope extensive computational results document how the optimal technology choice patterns depend on the cost structures and levels of model robustness specified to accommodate uncertain demand realizations the results obtained by the two stage robust optimization approach are compared to the results obtained by a non robust approach

the strategic perils of delayed differentiation the value of delayed differentiation also known as postponement for a monopolist has been extensively studied in the operations literature we analyze the case of imperfectly competitive markets with demand uncertainty wherein the choice of supply chain configuration i e early or delayed differentiation is endogenous to the competing firms we characterize firms choices in equilibrium and analyze the effects of these choices on quantities sold profits consumer surplus and welfare we demonstrate that purely strategic considerations not previously identified in the literature play a pivotal role in determining the value of delayed differentiation in the face of either entry threats or competition these strategic effects can significantly diminish the value of delayed differentiation in fact under plausible conditions these effects dominate the traditional risk pooling benefits associated with delayed differentiation in which case early differentiation is the dominant strategy for firms even under cost parity with delayed differentiation we extend the main model to study the effects of alternate market structures asymmetric markets and inventory holdback our results in particular that for a broad range of parameter values early differentiation is a dominant strategy even under cost parity with delayed differentiation are robust to these relaxations

responsive pricing under supply uncertainty consider a retailer orders a seasonal product from a supplier and sells the product over a selling season while the product demand is known to be a linear function of price the supply yield is uncertain and is distributed according to a general discrete probability distribution this paper presents a two stage stochastic model for analyzing two pricing policies no responsive pricing and responsive pricing under the no responsive pricing policy the retailer would determine the order quantity and the retail price before the supply yield is realized under the responsive pricing policy the retailer would specify the order quantity first and then decide on the retail price after observing the realized supply yield therefore the responsive pricing policy enables the retailer to use pricing as a response mechanism for managing uncertain supply our analysis suggests that the retailer would always obtain a higher expected profit under the responsive pricing policy in addition to examining the impact of yield distribution and system parameters on the optimal order quantities retail prices and profits under these two pricing policies we analyze two issues arising from responsive pricing the first issue deals with the case in which the retailer can place an emergency order with an alternative source after observing the realized yield while the second issue deals with a situation in which the retailer has to allocate his order among multiple suppliers

coordinating the resource investment decision for a two market price setting firm abstract we study the capacity investment decision of a two product firm that is a price setter for both products the products are of varying complexities such that the resource that can be used to produce the higher level product can also be used to produce the lower level one but not vice versa although the firm needs to make its capacity investment decision under demand uncertainty it can utilize this limited downward resource flexibility in addition to pricing to more effectively match its supply with demand as an example consider a firm that owns a main plant satisfying both end product and intermediate product demand and a subsidiary satisfying the intermediate product demand only we formulate this decision problem as a two stage stochastic programming problem with recourse and analyze the impact of coordinated decision making when the resource flexibility is taken into account in the investment decision and demand correlation on the firm s optimal investment strategy our results offer managerial principles on the firm s optimal resource investment strategy

value of an additional firm in monopolistic competition the paper develops a model of monopolistic competition in which the satisfaction levels consumers get from products are independently and identically distributed potential substitution among products then generates demand curves through the mechanism of order statistics the value of extra variety can be calculated directly pareto lognormal and beta distributions are investigated using numerical integration some but not all cases support the argument that the optimal number of firms exceeds the equilibrium number

neorealism and neoliberalism the classic dialectic between realist and liberal theories of international politics as expressed by robert o keohane ed in neorealism and its critics and richard rosecrance the rise of the trading state can be transcended neither paradigm singularly explains international behavior realism is the dominant approach but liberal theories of transnationalism and interdependence help to illuminate how national interests are learned and changed keohane and fellow critics argue that neorealism articulated definitively in kenneth waltz s theory of international politics 1979 elegantly systematizes realism but concentrates on international system structure at the expense of system process focused tightly on the concept of bipolarity waltz s theory tends toward stasis the unit state level unproductively becomes an analytical dumping ground as a neoliberal counterpoint rosecrance s argument does not go far enough in the tradition of commercial liberalism he argues that an open trading system offers states maneuverability through economic growth rather than through military conquest he tempers his argument with realist considerations of prudence but fails to clarify realist liberal links in his theory or to explore fully the connections between power and non power incentives influencing states behavior a synthesis of neorealism and neoliberalism is warranted a systemic theory using the former to analyze at the level of structure the latter more often at the level of process

a note on probability distributions with increasing generalized failure rates distributions with an increasing generalized failure rate igfr have useful applications in pricing and supply chain contracting problems we provide alternative characterizations of the igfr property that lead to simplify verifying whether the igfr condition holds we also relate the limit of the generalized failure rate and the moments of a distribution

flexible production resources and capacity utilization rates a robust optimization perspective abstract this paper presents a novel application of robust optimization ro in the context of optimal choices of product dedicated and flexible capacities in a spatial setting specifically we examine the impact of acquiring flexible production technologies on a firm s overall capacity utilization rates under demand uncertainty uncorrelated negatively and positively correlated demands are considered we implement an efficient ro algorithm which can solve large samples of robust min max problems in a realistic amount of time this paper examines the impact of three critical factors that lead to different capacity utilization and resource flexibility outcomes the degree of solution robustness selected by the decision maker to accommodate uncertain demand realizations the flexible capacity costs relative to dedicated capacity costs and the level of correlation between product demands one of our results show that according to robust solutions the total capacity may not be fully utilized because of the distinction between largest in unit terms and costliest demand realizations the second result shows that increasing the proportion of flexible capacity can increase capacity utilization however our results report less than full utilization even when using flexible capacity only we show that the optimal amount of flexible capacity and its impact on overall capacity utilization rate substantially depends on demand correlation

joint pricing and inventory control with a markovian demand model abstract we consider the joint pricing and inventory control problem for a single product over a finite horizon and with periodic review the demand distribution in each period is determined by an exogenous markov chain pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged the surplus costs as well as fixed and variable costs are state dependent we show the existence of an optimal s s p type feedback policy for the additive demand model we extend the model to the case of emergency orders we compute the optimal policy for a class of markovian demand and illustrate the benefits of dynamic pricing over fixed pricing through numerical examples the results indicate that it is more beneficial to implement dynamic pricing in a markovian demand environment with a high fixed ordering cost or with high demand variability

selling to conspicuous consumers pricing production and sourcing decisions consumers often purchase goods that are hard to find to conspicuously display their exclusivity and social status firms that produce such conspicuously consumed goods such as designer apparel fashion goods jewelry etc often face challenges in making optimal pricing and production decisions such firms are confronted with precipitous trade off between high sales volume and high margins because of the highly uncertain market demand strategic consumer behavior and the display of conspicuous consumption in this paper we propose a model that addresses pricing and production decisions for a firm using the rational expectations framework we show that in equilibrium firms may offer high availability of goods despite the presence of conspicuous consumption we show that scarcity strategies are harder to adopt as demand variability increases and we provide conditions under which scarcity strategies could be successfully adopted to improve profits finally to credibly commit to scarcity strategy we show that firms can adopt sourcing strategies such as sourcing from an expensive production location supplier or using expensive raw materials this paper was accepted by preyas desai and pradeep chintagunta marketing

flexible capacity strategy with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraint abstract we establish a flexible capacity strategy model with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraints in the model a firm makes its capacity decision under a financial budget constraint at the beginning of the planning horizon which embraces n market periods in each market period the firm goes through three decision making stages the safety production stage the additional production stage and the optimal sales stage we formulate the problem and obtain the optimal capacity the optimal safety production the optimal additional production and the optimal sales of each market period under different situations we find that there are two thresholds for the unit capacity cost when the capacity cost is very low the optimal capacity is determined by its financial budget when the capacity cost is very high the firm keeps its optimal capacity at its safety production level and when the cost is in between of the two thresholds the optimal capacity is determined by the capacity cost the number of market periods and the unit cost of additional production further we explore the endogenous safety production level we verify the conditions under which the firm has different optimal safety production levels finally we prove that the firm can benefit from the investment only when the designed planning horizon is longer than a threshold moreover we also derive the formulae for the above three thresholds

the optimal mix of flexible and dedicated manufacturing capacities hedging against demand uncertainty abstract a firm that faces uncertain demands for several product groups needs to decide how much of relatively inexpensive dedicated capacity and how much of more expensive flexible capacity to acquire we model this situation as a two stage decision problem investment and allocation we pay particular attention to the dependence of acquisition policy on existing capacities as most firms facing the problem are not likely to be entirely new we show that if initial capacities are lower than the levels that would be optimal in absence of initial capacities the investment decision is a simple acquire up to optimal levels for each capacity type however if some initial capacity is too high the optimal additions to others depend on its value in a non linear yet intuitive fashion we also pose the issue of choosing the degree of flexibility as the realized product mix will affect the performance of partially flexible machines

volume flexibility and capacity investment under demand uncertainty the paper considers optimal capacity investment decisions under uncertainty taking a real options approach concerning the production decision we study a flexible and an inflexible scenario the flexible firm can costlessly adjust production over time with the capacity level as the upper bound while the inflexible firm fixes production at capacity level from the moment of investment onwards we find that the flexible firm invests in higher capacity than the inflexible firm where the capacity difference increases with uncertainty for the flexible firm the initial capacity utilization rate can be quite low especially when investment costs are concave and the economic environment is uncertain as to the timing of the investment there are two contrary effects first the flexible firm has an incentive to invest earlier because flexibility raises the project value second the flexible firm has an incentive to invest later because costs are larger due to the higher capacity level the latter effect dominates in highly uncertain economic environments our model being dynamic enables us to derive the at first sight counterintuitive result that an increase in capacity holding cost raises the capacity level the firm invests in

allocation of flexible and indivisible resources with decision postponement and demand learning we consider a firm that uses two perishable resources to satisfy two demand types resources are flexible such that each resource can be used to satisfy either demand type resources are also indivisible such that the entire resource must be allocated to the same demand type this type of resource flexibility can be found in different applications such as movie theater complexes cruise lines and airlines in our model customers arrive according to independent poisson processes but the arrival rates are uncertain thus the manager can learn about customer arrival rates from earlier demand figures and potentially increase the sales by postponing the resource allocation decision we consider two settings and derive the optimal resource allocation policy for one setting and develop a heuristic policy for the other our analysis provides managerial insights into the effectiveness of different resource allocation mechanisms for flexible and indivisible resources

supply capacity acquisition and allocation with uncertain customer demands we study a class of capacity acquisition and assignment problems with stochastic customer demands often found in operations planning contexts in this setting a supplier utilizes a set of distinct facilities to satisfy the demands of different customers or markets our model simultaneously assigns customers to each facility and determines the best capacity level to operate or install at each facility we propose a branch and price solution approach for this new class of stochastic assignment and capacity planning problems for problem instances in which capacity levels must fall between some pre specified limits we offer a tailored solution approach that reduces solution time by nearly 80 over an alternative approach using a combination of commercial nonlinear optimization solvers we have also developed a heuristic solution approach that consistently provides optimal or near optimal solutions where solutions within 0 01 of optimality are found on average without requiring a nonlinear optimization solver

turnout across democracies world democracies widely differ in legislative executive and legal institutions different institutional environments induce different mappings from electoral outcomes to the distribution of power we explore how these mappings affect voters participation in an election we show that the effect of such institutional differences on turnout depends on the distribution of voters preferences we uncover a novel contest effect given the preferences distribution turnout increases and then decreases when we move from a more proportional to a less proportional power sharing system turnout is maximized for an intermediate degree of power sharing moreover we generalize the competition effect common to models of endogenous turnout given the institutional environment turnout increases in the ex ante preferences evenness and more so when the overall system has lower power sharing these results are robust to a wide range of modeling approaches including ethical voter models voter mobilization models and rational voter models

capacity investment under postponement strategies market competition and demand uncertainty we consider duopoly models where firms make decisions on capacity production and price under demand uncertainty capacity and price decisions are made respectively ex ante and ex post demand realizations the interplay between the timings of demand realization and production decision endows firms with different capabilities flexible firms can postpone production decisions until the actual demand curve is observed but inflexible firms cannot under general demand structures and cost functions we characterize the equilibrium for a symmetric duopoly and establish the strategic equivalence of price and quantity competitions when firms are flexible we investigate the stochastic order properties of capacity and profit and show that they both increase for a flexible firm when the market is more volatile we find that flexibility allows a firm to increase investment in capacity and earn a higher profit while benefiting customers by keeping the price in a narrower range strategic equivalence implies that

pricing and the news vendor problem a review with extensions in the newsvendor problem a decision maker facing random demand for a perishable product decides how much of it to stock for a single selling period this simple problem with its intuitively appealing solution is a crucial building block of stochastic inventory theory which comprises a vast literature focusing on operational efficiency typically in this literature market parameters such as demand and selling price are exogenous however incorporating these factors into the mode l can provide an excellent vehicle for examining how operational problems interact with marketing issues to influence decision making at the firm level in this paper we examine an extension of the newsvendor problem in which stocking quantity and selling price are set simultaneously we provide a comprehensive review that synthesizes existing results for the single period problem and develop additional results to enrich the existing knowledge base we also review and develop insight into a dynamic inventory extension of this problem and motivate the applicability of such models

optimal production strategy under demand fluctuations technology versus capacity abstract this paper provides a comparative analysis of five possible production strategies for two kinds of flexibility investment namely flexible technology and flexible capacity under demand fluctuations each strategy is underpinned by a set of operations decisions on technology level capacity amount production quantity and pricing by evaluating each strategy we show how market uncertainty production cost structure operations timing and investment costing environment affect a firm s strategic decisions the results show that there is no sequential effect of the two flexibility investments we also illustrate the different ways in which flexible technology and flexible capacity affect a firm s profit under demand fluctuations the results reveal that compared to no flexibility investment flexible technology investment earns the same or a higher profit for a firm whereas flexible capacity investment can be beneficial or harmful to a firm s profit moreover we prove that higher flexibility does not guarantee more profit depending on the situation the optimal strategy can be any one of the five possible strategies we also provide the optimality conditions for each strategy

inventory centralization games with price dependent demand and quantity discount consider a distribution system consisting of a set of retailers facing a single period price dependent demand of a single product by taking advantage of the risk pooling effect and the quantity volume discount provided by suppliers or third party carriers the retailers may place joint orders and keep inventory at central warehouses before demand realization and allocate inventory among themselves after demand realization to reduce their operating costs under rather general assumptions we prove that there is a stable allocation of profits among the retailers in the sense that the resulting inventory centralization game has a nonempty core we also show how to compute an allocation in the core

an innovative approach for strategic capacity portfolio planning under uncertainties abstract this research studies multi generation capacity portfolio planning problems under various uncertainty factors these uncertainty factors include price uncertainties demand fluctuation and uncertain product life cycle the objective of this research is to develop an efficient algorithm that generates capacity portfolio policies robust to aforementioned uncertainties we model this capacity portfolio planning problem using markov decision processes mdp in this mdp model we consider two generation of manufacturing technology the new generation capacity serves as a flexible resource that can be used to downward fulfill the deficiency of old generation capacity the objective of this mdp model is to maximize the expected profit under uncertainties an efficient algorithm is proposed to solve the problem and provide an optimal capacity expansion policy for both types of capacity moreover we show that the optimal capacity expansion policy can be characterized by a monotone structure we verify our results by detail simulation study

relationships among three assumptions in revenue management this note discusses the relationships among three assumptions that appear frequently in the pricing revenue management literature these assumptions are mostly needed for analytical tractability and they have the common property of ensuring a well behaved revenue function the three assumptions are decreasing marginal revenue with respect to demand decreasing marginal revenue with respect to price and increasing price elasticity of demand we provide proofs and examples to show that none of these conditions implies any other however they can be ordered from strongest to weakest over restricted regions and the ordering depends upon the region

competitive price matching guarantees equilibrium analysis of the availability verification clause under demand uncertainty price matching guarantees involve a retailer matching the lower price of a competitor for an identical product in reality retailers often make such guarantees contingent on the verification of product availability at the competitor s location and decline a price match request if the product is not available there this creates certain consternation on the part of customers in this paper we investigate the availability contingency strategy from the perspectives of both the retailers and the customers our analysis shows that availability contingency clauses intensify inventory competition between retailers and reinstitutes price competition which is otherwise eliminated by unconditional price matching guarantees consequently despite what customers may think about the availability verification it actually increases their surplus on the other hand such a clause reduces profits and hence is not the equilibrium strategy for retailers subsequently we discuss how a likely customer behaviour pattern may be a plausible explanation regarding the use of the clause by the retailers in practice this paper was accepted by yossi aviv operations management

design for postponement a comprehensive characterization of its benefits under unknown demand distributions recent papers have developed analytical models to explain and quantify the benefits of delayed differentiation and quick response programs these models assume that while demands in each period are random they are independent across time and their distribution is perfectly known i e sales forecasts do not need to be updated as time progresses in this paper we characterize these benefits in more general settings where parameters of the demand distributions fail to be known with accuracy or where consecutive demands are correlated here it is necessary to revise estimates of the parameters of the demand distributions on the basis of observed demand data we analyze these systems in a bayesian framework assuming that our initial information about the parameters of the demand distributions is characterized via prior distributions we also characterize the structure of close to optimal ordering rules in these systems for a variety of types of order cost functions

stable farsighted coalitions in competitive markets in this paper we study dynamic alliance formation among agents in competitive markets we look at n agents selling substitutable products competing in a market in this setting we examine models with deterministic and stochastic demand and we use a two stage approach in stage 1 agents form alliances coalitions and in stage 2 coalitions make decisions price and inventory and compete against one another to analyze the stability of coalition structures in stage 1 we use two notions from cooperative games the largest consistent set lcs and the equilibrium process of coalition formation epcf which allow players to be farsighted thus in forming alliances players consider two key phenomena first players trade off the size of the total profit of the system versus their allocation of this total pie and second they weigh the possibility that an immediate beneficial defection can trigger further counter defections that in the end may prove to be worse than the status quo in particular one such example is that of the grand coalition which we show to be stable in the farsighted sense even though players benefit myopically by defecting from it we also provide conditions under which a situation of a few lone players competing against a large coalition is stable we examine the impact of the size of the market n the degree of competition the effect of cost parameters and the variability of the demand process on the prices inventory levels and structure of the market we discuss the possible strategic implications of our results to firms in a competitive market and for new entrants

dedicated vs product flexible production technology strategic capacity investment choice this paper studies the optimal investment strategies of an incumbent and a potential entrant that can both choose between a product flexible and dedicated technology in a two product market characterized by uncertain demand the product flexible production technology has certain advantages especially when the economic environment is uncertain on the other hand the dedicated production technology allows a firm to commit to production quantities this gives strategic advantages which can outweigh the value of flexibility it turns out that both firms prefer for some scenarios the dedicated production technology however we find that in a game with sequential technology choices both firms investing dedicated will not be an equilibrium especially when the economic environment is more uncertain the incumbent overinvests in product flexible capacity to force the entrant to choose the dedicated technology then the incumbent is the only firm with the product flexible production technology which results in a high payoff

dynamic and targeted bundle pricing of two independently valued products abstract bundling is when two or more products are offered as a single unit and at a price lower than the sum of the individual prices of the products we study a multi segment market in which a retailer aims to clear the inventory of an item by bundling it with a second product which is independently valued we investigate the question of how dynamic and segment specific bundle pricing impacts retailer s revenue we develop a revenue model that integrates the dynamic and segment specific aspects of the pricing decisions and present a computational study to analyze their revenue impact relative to a price promotion for the individual item only the computational results indicate that the bundle offers are most effective when the initial inventory of the item under consideration is high the results also demonstrate that dynamic pricing is beneficial when the initial inventory of the item is low an additional revenue improvement is observed when the price of the bundle is dynamically optimized in the computational study segment specific pricing is observed to have no direct impact on revenue when prices are static segment specific and dynamic pricing however can bring about substantial revenue improvements that are an increasing function of the initial inventory level of the item we consider the correlation in consumers valuations of the bundled products and show that dynamically priced and segment specific bundle offers yield a robust revenue performance mitigating the potentially revenue diminishing impact of positive correlation in consumers valuations of the products

how to escape a declining market capacity investment or exit this paper considers a firm that faces a declining profit stream for its established product the firm has the option to invest in a new technology with which it can produce an innovative product while having the option to exit at any point in time in the presence of an exit option earlier work determined the optimal timing to invest where it was shown that higher uncertainty might accelerate investment timing in the present paper the firm also decides on capacity this extension leads to monotonicity i e higher uncertainty delays investment timing we also find that higher potential profitability of the innovative product market increases the incentive to invest earlier where however we get the counterintuitive result that the firm invests in smaller capacity finally if quantity has a smaller negative effect on price the firm wants to acquire a larger capacity at a lower investment threshold

a risk tolerance analysis for a joint price differentiation and inventory decisions problem with demand leakage effect abstract price differentiation is a commonly used practice in revenue management rm to improve a firm s profitability however most studies in the literature have considered a risk neutral firm to demonstrate the benefits of price differentiation the main contribution of this paper is in considering several important objectives while determining the optimal product prices and order production quantities for a risk adjusted firm with demand leakage effects in the presence of a price dependent stochastic demand the objectives considered include the maximization of a firm s expected profit and maximizing the probability of exceeding the risk adjusted expected revenue closed form expressions for optimal product prices and production quantities are derived for several of these objectives a numerical study is also presented to calibrate the impact of a firm s risk tolerance and other factors such as demand leakage market demand variability on the firm s profitability and its optimal decision

the elements of the structures of international systems structural international theory has become largely a matter of elaborating the effects of anarchy simple hunter gatherer band societies however perfectly fit the waltzian model of anarchic orders but do not experience security dilemmas or warfare pursue relative gains or practice self help balancing they thus demonstrate that the effects of anarchy where they exist are not effects of anarchy undermining mainstream structural international theory as it has been practiced for the past three decades starting over i ask what one needs to differentiate how actors are arranged in three simple anarchic orders forager band societies hobbesian states of nature and great power states systems the answer turns out to look nothing like the dominant tripartite ordering principle functional differentiation distribution of capabilities conception based on these cases i present a multidimensional framework of the elements of social and political structures that dispenses with anarchy is truly structural in contrast to the independent variable agent centric models of waltz and wendt and highlights complexity diversity and regular change in the structures of international systems

the impact of demand aggregation through delayed component allocation in an assemble to order system we consider an assemble to order system in which multiple products are assembled from a common component and a set of product dedicated components component capacities are chosen prior to a finite horizon selling season and the common component is allocated to the products based on observed demands we propose a collection of allocation mechanisms involving varying degrees of demand aggregation ranging from a scheme under which all demands are observed prior to making the allocation decision to allocations made for each arriving demand in this context we explore the impact of the allocation scheme on sales profits and capacity decisions including the degree of capacity imbalance we find that the benefit from increased demand aggregation is closely linked to the degree of capacity imbalance profit gains from delayed allocation tend to be higher in systems in which the optimal capacity portfolio is highly unbalanced when the allocation decision is made after observing all demands we develop insights into what detailed system parameters lead to the largest gains from demand aggregation and also explore the trade offs associated with the choice of an allocation scheme when customers exhibit impatience if the allocation scheme forces them to wait to be served this paper was accepted by ananth iyer operations and supply chain management

price versus production postponement capacity and competition this article presents a comparative analysis of possible postponement strategies in a two stage decision model where firms make three decisions capacity investment production inventory quantity and price typically investments are made while the demand curve is uncertain the strategies differ in the timing of the operational decisions relative to the realization of uncertainty we show how competition uncertainty and the timing of operational decisions influence the strategic investment decision of the firm and its value in contrast to production postponement price postponement makes the investment and production inventory decisions relatively insensitive to uncertainty this suggests that managers can make optimal capacity decisions by deterministic reasoning if they have some price flexibility under price postponement additional postponement of production has relatively small incremental value therefore it may be worthwhile to consider flexible ex post pricing before production postponement reengineering while more postponement increases firm value it is counterintuitive that this also makes the optimal capacity decision more sensitive to uncertainty we highlight the different impact of more timely information which leads to higher investment and inventories and of reduced demand uncertainty which decreases investment and inventories our analysis suggests appropriateness conditions for simple make to stock and make to order strategies we also present technical sufficiency and uniqueness conditions under price postponement these results extend to oligopolistic and perfect competition for which pure equilibria are derived interestingly the relative value of operational postponement techniques seems to increase as the industry becomes more competitive

a risk averse newsvendor model under marketing dependency and price dependency abstract in this paper we analyze a single period inventory model where a risk averse newsvendor makes a joint decision on ordering pricing and marketing under the cvar risk measure criterion the newsvendor can exert marketing effort to enhance market demand we assume that the newsvendor s marketing effort affects the scale of the demand distribution and hence to model the marketing dependent demand as a multiplicative form we characterize sufficient conditions that guarantee existence and uniqueness of the optimal solutions under some mild assumptions on demand distribution expected demand function and marketing effort cost which are widely used in the related literature we show that the optimal order quantity increases in the newsvendor s marketing effort but the optimal price remains unchanged whether the demand is marketing dependent or not additionally we explore impact of exogenous parameters such as unit order cost salvage value and the newsvendor s risk aversion coefficient on the optimal decision variables and find that the optimal marketing effort always keeps the same changing direction with the optimal marketing independent order quantity as the exogenous parameters change this suggests that impact of the parameters on the optimal order quantity gets strengthened in the case of marketing dependent demand

optimal reserve prices in sealed bid auctions with reference effects abstract the reference effect and loss aversion are incorporated into the buyer s utility in the symmetric independent private value models of sealed bid auctions the buyer s equilibrium bidding strategy and the seller s optimal reserve price are derived for the first price and second price sealed bid auctions in both auction mechanisms the seller s optimal reserve price and expected revenue are increasing in the reference point we compare the seller s expected revenues as well as the optimal reserve prices in the two auctions the results show that the seller will set a higher optimal reserve price but obtain lower optimal expected revenue in the second price auction compared to the first price auction further we extend the model to the gain seeking case and endogenize the reference point as the ex ante expected price of the item in equilibrium in contrast to the loss averse case the seller will set a lower optimal reserve price but obtain higher optimal expected revenue in the second price auction compared to the first price auction if the buyers are gain seeking with an endogenous reference point similar results are obtained in terms of revenue comparison between the two auctions

technology investment under flexible capacity strategy with demand uncertainty abstract this paper investigates technology investment under flexible capacity strategy with demand uncertainty technology investment enables a firm to reduce its total production cost while flexible capacity strategy aims to reduce a firm s production waste by postponing production until demand is known adopting a general technology investment cost we examine how technology investment cost structure affects a firm s technology investment decisions we derive the conditions under which the firm will benefit from technology investment we show that the firm can increase its expected profit through technology investment only when the unit technology investment cost that varies inversely with the basic technology level is below a threshold however even though the technology investment cost is zero the benefit from the increase in technology level is limited furthermore we analytically determine the optimal technology levels and establish their relationships under different technology investment cost structures our findings will help firms evaluate various technology investment options and choose the most proper one

the setting of profit targets for target oriented divisions abstract setting profit targets and striving to achieve them is fundamental to business survival and success however there has been little research on modeling profit target setting in this paper we study analytic target setting under a common business scenario where a firm is in control of multiple divisions both the firm and the divisions maximize the profit probability i e the probability of achieving some given profit target the firm sets a profit target for each division which then acts as a price setting newsvendor we first obtain the optimal order quantity the optimal retail price and the maximal profit probability of a single division given its assigned target we then derive the firm s profit probability and focus on two specific cases to gain more managerial insights in the first case of fair target setting we show that when each division s demand distribution has an increasing failure rate if a division has a relatively high low production cost its assigned profit target decreases increases with regard to its price elasticity in the second case if the firm is in control of two identical divisions each division s optimal profit target is just half of the firm s profit target when the price elasticity is two or more regardless of production cost and demand distribution

improving supply chain performance and managing risk under weather related demand uncertainty we consider a manufacturer retailer supply chain for a seasonal product whose demand is weather sensitive the retailer orders from the manufacturer supplier prior to the selling season and then sells to the market we examine how a manufacturer can structure a weather linked rebate to improve his expected profit the proposed class of rebate contracts offers several advantages over many other contract structures including no required verification of leftover inventory and or markdown amounts and no adverse effect on sales effort by the retailer we provide a thorough analysis of the manufacturer s and retailer s decisions in this context we show that the weather linked rebate can take many different forms and this flexibility allows the supplier to design contracts that are pareto improving and or limit his risk in offering the contract and the retailer s risk in accepting it for weather rebates with certain characteristics the manufacturer can fully hedge his risks of offering a weather rebate by paying a risk premium we show how this can be accomplished we also show that the basic structural results extend to settings in which the two parties would like to limit their risk

purchasing pricing and quick response in the presence of strategic consumers we consider a retailer that sells a product with uncertain demand over a finite selling season the retailer sets an initial stocking quantity and at some predetermined point in the season optimally marks down remaining inventory we modify this classic setting by introducing three types of consumers myopic consumers who always purchase at the initial full price bargain hunting consumers who purchase only if the discounted price is sufficiently low and strategic consumers who strategically choose when to make their purchase a strategic consumer chooses between a purchase at the initial full price and a later purchase at an uncertain markdown price in equilibrium strategic consumers and the retailer make optimal decisions given their rational expectations regarding future prices availability of inventory and the behavior of other consumers we find that the retailer stocks less takes smaller price discounts and earns lower profit if strategic consumers are present than if there are no strategic consumers we find that a retailer should generally avoid committing to a price path over the season assuming such commitment is feasible committing to a markdown price or to not mark down at all is often too costly inventory may remain unsold even in the presence of strategic consumers the better approach is to be cautious with the initial quantity and then mark down optimally furthermore we discuss the value of quick response the ability to procure additional inventory after obtaining updated demand information albeit at a higher unit cost than the initial order we find that the value of quick response to a retailer is generally much greater in the presence of strategic consumers than without them on average 67 more valuable and as much as 558 more valuable in our sample in other words although it is well established in the literature that quick response provides value by allowing better matching of supply with demand it provides more value often substantially more value by allowing a retailer to control the negative consequences of strategic consumer behavior

a note on closure properties of failure rate distributions increasing generalized failure rate igfr distributions were introduced as a tool in the study of contracting mechanisms in supply chains in this note we compare and contrast the closure and the lack thereof of igfr and increasing failure rate ifr distributions with respect to standard operations on random variables some implications of these results for the use of igfr distributions in supply chain models are noted

the impact of budget constraints on flexible vs dedicated technology choice this paper studies the flexible versus dedicated technology choice and capacity investment decisions of a multiproduct firm under demand uncertainty in the presence of budget constraints the firm operates under a capital budget for financing the capacity investment and an operating budget which is uncertain in the capacity investment stage for financing the production we investigate how the tightening of the capital budget and a lower financial flexibility in the production stage the likelihood of having a sufficient operating budget shape the optimal technology choice we find that the dominant regime is one where dedicated technology should be adopted for a larger investment cost range and thus is the best response to the tighter capital budget whereas flexible technology is the best response to lower financial flexibility we identify the key roles that the capacity intensity the ratio of unit capacity cost to total unit capacity and production cost of each technology and the pooling value

capacitated multi item inventory systems with random and seasonally fluctuating demands implications for postponement strategies we address multi item inventory systems with random and seasonally fluctuating and possibly correlated demands the items are produced in two stages each with its own lead time in the first stage a common intermediate product is manufactured the production volumes in the first stage are bounded by given capacity limits we develop an accurate lower bound and close to optimal heuristic strategies of simple structure the gap between them evaluated in an extensive numerical study is on average only 0 45 we use the model to investigate the benefits of various delayed product differentiation postponement strategies as well as other strategic questions including i the benefits of flexible versus dedicated production facilities ii the trade off between capacity and inventory investments and iii the trade off between capacity investments and service levels

anarchy and identity is there escape from a self help system realists say no they assume states are egoistic actors in anarchy this means states must either look out for themselves or risk destruction structure generates a self help system constructivists think escape is possible because identities are made not given we should not make a priori assumptions of state egoism process generates self help process could also generate an other help security system this article introduces a third approach that uses social identity theory to argue that interstate relations are inherently competitive thus for cognitive and motivated rather than structural or social reasons competition which can be coercive or cooperative characterizes international politics

behavioral heterogeneity and the income effect inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory this paper introduces hits a semiparametric model of consumer demand that allows for diversity in tastes the strong variation of budget shares observed across income groups has two possible origins the individual income effect and taste differences between poor and rich households consumer surveys reporting repeated cross sections do not permit the direct measurement of these two effects in hits linear heterogeneity allows the gmm estimation of structural coefficients on an aggregate series the joint density of spending and tastes is then recovered from cross sections by a nonparametric procedure involving a deconvolution we estimate the model on british data 1968 1998 and report that taste heterogeneity explains a large fraction of the variation of budget shares with income

systemic conflict and regional monetary integration the case of europe existing explanations of european monetary integration emphasizing economic interdependence issue linkage institutions and domestic politics take a predominantly regional approach in the international monetary thesis developed here i argue that u s policy disturbances transmitted through the international monetary system created compelling incentives for european states to cooperate on exchange rate and monetary policy i develop a general theory of macroeconomic power based on open economy macroeconomics and show how the exercise of such influence can drive regional monetary integration this article then tests the international thesis with reference to monetary integration within the european union by examining four periods in which the united states acted to stabilize the international monetary system and seven episodes in which it disrupted the system european governments and central banks reduced regional monetary cooperation when the united states supported system stability and strengthened it after each episode of disruption the evidence thus strongly supports the inference that the link is causal

accurate response by postponement abstract accurate response and postponement are two strategies for a firm to deal with demand uncertainty and better match supply with demand under accurate response reactive capacity could be used for customized make to order mto production according to customer demands on the other hand using postponement a firm could perform the non postponed activities speculatively and use reactive capacity only to customize the final product thereby enhancing the profitability of accurate response surprisingly existing research in the areas of accurate response and postponement does not address this potential in this paper we aim to fill this gap by proposing a stylized model for accurate response by postponement specifically we analyze a situation where a manufacturer is faced with uncertain demand for a product during a short selling season the manufacturer has three supply options first it can manufacture and offer a standardized version of the product second it can use postponement by manufacturing a standard component speculatively and customizing it once demands are revealed at the beginning of the selling season third it can produce customized products in a pure make to order fashion during the selling season this situation is modeled as an extension of a newsvendor problem our main research question is then to analyze specifically under which conditions postponement is part of the optimal supply strategy and more generally what kinds of supply strategies will arise in different model settings

the dynamics of smithian growth this paper analyzes the evolution of an economy where growth is driven by increased specialization caused by the geographical expansion of markets it proves that such smithian growth exhibits generic threshold behavior below a critical density of transport linkages the economy is split into isolated local markets with limited specialization above the critical density these markets begin to fuse into a large economywide market causing growth to accelerate this allows an explicit test of the consensus among historians of sung dynasty china that the economic revolution during that period was a result of commercialization caused by the creation of a national waterway network

dynamic capacity management with general upgrading this paper studies a capacity management problem with upgrading a firm needs to procure multiple classes of capacities and then allocate the capacities to satisfy multiple classes of customers that arrive over time a general upgrading rule is considered i e unmet demand can be satisfied using multistep upgrade no replenishment is allowed and the firm has to make the allocation decisions without observing future demand we first characterize the structure of the optimal allocation policy which consists of parallel allocation and then sequential rationing specifically the firm first uses capacity to satisfy the same class demand as much as possible then considers possible upgrading decisions in a sequential manner we also propose a heuristic based on certainty equivalence control to solve the problem numerical analysis shows that the heuristic is fast and delivers close to optimal profit for the firm finally we conduct extensive numerical studies to derive insights into the problem it is foun

global facility network design in the presence of competition abstract we study the facility network design problem for a global firm that is a monopolist seller in its domestic market but faces local competition in its foreign market the global firm produces in the face of demand and exchange rate uncertainty but can postpone localization and distribution of the output until after uncertainties are resolved the competitor in the foreign market however enjoys the flexibility of postponing all production activities until after uncertainties are resolved the two firms engage in an ex post cournot competition in the foreign market we consider three potential network configurations for the global firm under a linear demand function we provide the necessary and sufficient condition that one of the three networks is the global firm s optimal choice and explore how the presence of foreign competition affects the sensitivity of the global firm s design to various cost parameters and market uncertainties

a risk averse competitive newsvendor problem under the cvar criterion abstract we study a risk averse newsvendor problem with quantity competition and price competition under the conditional value at risk cvar criterion we characterize the optimal quantity and pricing decisions under both quantity and price competition for quantity competition we consider two demand splitting rules namely proportional demand allocation and demand reallocation although competition always leads to overstocking interestingly it does not necessarily lead to a profit loss in certain competitive environments such as demand reallocation by avoiding reducing overstocking that results from competition under the risk neutral criterion for price competition we consider both additive and multiplicative demand we find that the order quantity sale price and the expected profit decrease in the degree of risk aversion further both high price sensitivity and competition intensity force decision makers to lower their prices however high price sensitivity always reduces the order quantity while competition can have the opposite effect

monopoly pricing in the presence of social learning a monopolist offers a product to a market of consumers with heterogeneous quality preferences although initially uninformed about the product quality they learn by observing past purchase decisions and reviews of other consumers our goal is to analyze the social learning mechanism and its effect on the seller s pricing decision consumers follow an intuitive non bayesian decision rule under conditions that we identify we show that consumers eventually learn the product s quality we show how the learning trajectory can be approximated in settings with high demand intensity via a mean field approximation that highlights the dynamics of this learning process its dependence on the price and the market heterogeneity with respect to quality preferences two pricing policies are studied a static price and one with a single price change finally numerical experiments suggest that pricing policies that account for social learning may increase revenues considerably relative to policies that do not this

from local to global competition abstract we introduce a framework that has known models of oligopolistic competition with differentiated products the circle the logit and the ces as limit cases this integrative approach incorporates both localized and global competition as well as price sensitive individual demands it is used to explain the impact of major changes over the last two centuries reductions in transport costs increased taste for variety population growth and use of technologies with greater returns to scale we work out the properties of an extended chamberlinian model with applications both in industrial organization and economic geography

taste heterogeneity and the scale of production fragmentation unification and segmentation abstract we propose a simple framework within which taste heterogeneity is a determinant of the scale of production we show i when taste heterogeneity is small every firm chooses a mass production technology ii when taste heterogeneity is large every firm chooses a small scale production technology and iii when the degree of taste heterogeneity is intermediate these symmetric equilibria cease to exist and both technologies coexist in equilibrium we then extend the basic framework to a geographic framework and obtain a historical evolution of marketing that is characterized by three phases a geographically fragmented market with small scale production a geographically unified market with mass production and a geographically unified but characteristically segmented market

the value of flexibility in make to order systems the effect of demand correlation we consider a manufacturer of mass customized modular products who orders components under demand uncertainty and sets prices produces to order and trades excess components in a secondary market after this uncertainty is resolved the sequence of events reflects in a parsimonious fashion the considerable reduction in demand uncertainty between the procurement stage and the selling season typical of industries with long supply lead times and short product life cycles we prove that in contrast to conventional wisdom the value of production flexibility and expected profit increase with demand correlation if and only if commonality between the corresponding products does not exceed a threshold we also prove that the value of flexibility and expected profit may each increase or decrease with demand variability depending on demand correlations and component commonalities across the entire product line finally we prove that when demand shocks are independent the optimal product prices are positively correlated if and only if the degree of commonality between the corresponding products exceeds a threshold

capacity optimization under uncertainty the impact of operational time lags time lags in switching operational modes are typical in the manufacturing and power sectors but are not treated in most real options models in this paper we consider a firm that has the opportunity to suspend and to resume production infinitely many times subject to a time lag after each startup decision we contribute to the literature by allowing the firm to determine its level of installed capacity in conjunction with its optimal investment timing we find that an increase in the length of the time lag results in an increase in the optimal capacity level capacity optimization also interacts with the length of the time lag to affect investment timing and the triggers to suspend and resume production thereby weakening the result about hysteresis from a standard real options model under the assumption of a fixed level of capacity a longer lag speeds up the decision to resume operations due to a positive upside to the revenue but delays the suspension of operations by contrast with capacity optimization a longer time lag results in a larger capacity choice which can indirectly delay the investment decision and the timing to resume operations this indirect effect dominates when the level of market uncertainty is low and the time lag is initially small

pricing and operational recourse in coproduction systems coproduction systems in which multiple products are produced simultaneously in a single production run are prevalent in many industries such systems typically produce a random quantity of vertically differentiated products this product hierarchy enables the firm to fill demand for a lower quality product by converting a higher quality product in addition to the challenges presented by random yields and multiple products coproduction systems often serve multiple customer classes that differ in their product valuations furthermore the sizes of these classes are uncertain employing a utility maximizing customer model we investigate the production pricing downconversion and allocation decisions in a two class stochastic demand stochastic yield coproduction system for the single class case we establish that downconversion will not occur if prices are set optimally in contrast we show that downconversion can be optimal in the two class case even if prices are set optimally we consider the benefit of postponing certain operational decisions e g the pricing or allocation rule decisions until after uncertainties are resolved we use the term recourse to denote actions taken after uncertainties have been resolved we find that recourse pricing benefits the firm much more than either downconversion or recourse allocation do implying that recourse demand management is more valuable than recourse supply management special cases of our model include the single class and two class random yield newsvendor models