a review of wta wtp studies abstract willingness to accept wta is usually substantially higher than willingness to pay wtp these constructs have been studied for roughly 30 years and with a wide variety of goods this paper reviews those studies we find that the less the good is like an ordinary market good the higher is the ratio the ratio is highest for non market goods next highest for ordinary private goods and lowest for experiments involving forms of money a generalization of this pattern holds even when we account for differences in survey design ordinary goods have lower ratios than non ordinary ones we also find that ratios in real experiments are not significantly different from hypothetical experiments and that incentive compatible elicitation yields higher ratios

pricing in a customer market in standard pricing models movements in demand are partially offset by price responses in a customer market however price markups may decrease with high demand thus price may magnify rather than stabilize demand movements i consider a monopolist selling a good of which first time consumers are uncertain repeat customers know that the product works the monopolist trades the objectives of exploiting past customers and attracting new ones in a period with many new potential customers the monopolist gives more weight to attracting and lowers its markup last i examine some evidence on whether expansions are periods with disproportionately many new customers

a dynamic explanation of the willingness to pay and willingness to accept disparity a fundamental tenet in neoclassical theory is the basic independence assumption an individual s preferences are assumed to be measured over levels not changes although most theoretical and applied economic models invoke this assumption a wealth of data from laboratory experiments refutes this premise as systemic empirical disparities have been observed between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta for the same good e g kahneman knetsch and thaler 1990 with wta often observed to be many times larger than wta in an influential line of work hanemann 1991 argues that the large wta wtp disparities that have been observed in the literature can be reconciled with static neoclassical theory via income and substitution effects i but the empirical evidence to date has not conformed well to hanemann s 1991 or any other neoclassical based model 2 if the observed value disparity is inconsistent with neoclassical explanations and is found to be a fundamental component of individual s preferences as per reference dependent theory kahneman and tversky 1979 tversky and kahneman 1991 then a reevaluation of a good deal of economic analysis is necessary in this article we provide a different explanation for the wta wtp disparity a dynamic theory based on the presence of commitment costs and possibly asymmetric beliefs about market opportunities when the value of a good is uncertain wtp and wta will logically reflect compensation for the possibility of learning that the good has a different value than believed at the time of purchase or sale and the cost associated with reversing the purchase or sale decision in its simplest form our model predicts that with objective symmetric beliefs about market opportunities and with perfect substitutability and no income effects there should be no value disparity intuitively the objective cost of delaying the purchase or alternatively reversing the purchase for prospective buyers is isomorphic to the objective cost of reversing or delaying the sale for prospective sellers this symmetry necessarily leads to wta wtp consistent with the neoclassical paradigm importantly however it is an agent s perception of the delay and reversal costs that motivates behavior if agents behave in a manner consistent with the developing literature on cognitive dissonance and or limited memory it is quite plausible for individuals to display an asymmetric perception of the relative costs of selling later depending upon whether they are placed in the role of a buyer or seller 3 this type of asymmetry alone can yield the systematic value divergences observed in the literature indeed we show that even with only slight asymmetries in beliefs of perceived costs our theory can generate considerable value divergences because the actual divergence will depend upon the interaction of this asymmetry with the degree of value uncertainty time preference and lost value of consumption we explore the predictive power of our theory by examining wta and wtp statements of value from consumers in a competitive marketplace the sportscard market although we do not consider the sportscard marketplace particularly worthy of study in its own right it is useful for our purposes for several reasons first it is a natural setting for an examination of preference structures because it provides a rich pool of subjects making decisions in a familiar environment with uncertainty and future learning about the values of traded goods second we can identify factors that arise endogenously such as market experience and impose the remaining controls necessary to implement a clean experiment to explore whether such factors attenuate the value disparity through the channels predicted by our theory our data are striking in that agents display an asymmetric perception of the relative costs of selling later depending upon whether they are placed in the role of a buyer or seller

competition in political and economic markets do anomalies play an important role in explaining economic and political choices are political decisions more prone to anomalies irrationality and inefficiency than economic decisions in their integration of results derived from experimental psychology and applied political economy frey and eichenberger 1990 argue that social scientists ought to answer these questions in the affirmative after examining a large body of choice data frey and eichenberger conclude that individuals deviate from the axioms of rational choice in their view the resultant anomalies in individual behavior are unaffected by the aggregation which occurs in the economic marketplace they conclude that political decision making systems correct no larger a proportion of these anomalies than are corrected by the economic market in many institutional settings outlined in their paper decision making systems can be expected to magnify individuals deviations from rational behavior system wide irrational behavior will then produce less frequent trading and a less efficient allocation of resources in this note we examine two components of frey and eichenberger s argument first we reconsider their evidence for irrational behavior in light of a larger body of experimental data which includes choices made in market settings second we argue that competition in political markets will tend to eliminate aggregate anomalies just as it does in economic markets experimental economists often generate data which distinguish between choices individuals indicate in unstructured environments and transactions individuals consummate in markets initial statements regarding choices are often inconsistent with subsequent trading behavior these data indicate that the economist s maximization paradigm based on tenets of rational choice is

competitive pricing by a price leader we examine the problem of pricing in a market where one brand acts as a price leader we develop a procedure to estimate a leader s price rule which is optimal given a sales target objective and allows for the inclusion of demand forecasts we illustrate our estimation procedure by calibrating this optimal price rule for both the leader and the follower using data on past sales and prices from the mid size sedan segment of the u s automobile market our results suggest that a leader follower system stackelberg seems more consistent with the pricing behavior in this market than a mutually independent pricing rule nash we also find that our optimal price rule explains this market data better than other pricing schemes that do not account for optimizing behavior on the part of the leader and the follower

electricity outages in ghana are contingent valuation estimates valid african countries experience persistent and serious energy outages but while multiple valuation studies provide estimates of the costs of electricity outages in high income countries evidence is scarce for lower and middle income countries the few studies that assess the value of reliable energy supply rely on the contingent valuation method that is under wide scrutiny this paper aims to provide new estimates of households willingness to pay to reduce electricity outages for ghana and contributes to the debate on the validity of contingent valuation results for energy reliability our results suggest that households are willing to pay ghs 67 17 per month for reliable electricity supply equivalent to 7 of respondents income the results of tests for hypothetical bias wtp wta disparity and income effects suggest that the contingent valuation estimates from this study are robust and can support decision makers in prioritizing energy policies and investments

the disparity between willingness to accept and willingness to pay measures of value psychologists have long argued that people are much more averse to a loss than attracted to an equivalent gain this behavior termed loss aversion has been formalized by kahneman and tversky 1979 in their reformulation of expected utility theory prospect theory in prospect theory the utility function is replaced by a value function that evaluates changes in income from the current level increases in income are weighted by a relatively small marginal utility decreases in income are weighted by a much larger marginal utility in effect the value function implies that a kink in the relationship between utility and income occurs at the initial income or reference point and that the slope of the utility function for losses in income is steeper than it is for gains in a recent paper knetsch and sinden 1984 report a series of experiments that demonstrate the existence of a large disparity between willingness to accept wta and willingness to pay wtp measures of value they argue that the psychological theory of loss aversion explains this difference economic theory would suggest that individuals who exhibit a large disparity between wta and wtp are perhaps underperceiving the value of gains or overperceiving the value of losses are behaving in an irrational manner and will consequently achieve a lower level of well being than if they behaved in a true utility maximizing manner this would in contrast to loss aversion usually imply near equal values for wta and wtp see willig 1976 further documentation of a larger than expected disparity between wta and wtp has been obtained in surveys asking for the value of a variety of public goods for example cummings brookshire and schulze 1986 document six

framing and retirement age the gap between willingness to accept and willingness to pay summaryin a large online experiment we relate the retirement timing decision to the disparity between the willingness to accept wta and the willingness to pay wtp in the wtp treatment participants indicate the maximum amount of monthly benefits they are willing to give up to retire early in the wta treatment the minimum increase of monthly payments to delay retirement is elicited our results reveal that the framing of the decision problem strongly influences participants reservation price for early retirement the wta for early retirement is more than twice as high as the corresponding wtp using actual values from the german social security system as market prices we demonstrate that the presentation in a wta frame can induce early retirement in this frame the implicit probability of retiring early increases by 30 percentage points we further show that the disparity between wta and wtp is correlated with loss aversion repeating the analysis with data from a representative household survey german save panel we find similar results

consumer attitudes toward low stake risk in food markets consistency of quality is viewed as important for producers of consumer goods however there is no literature testing the importance of quality consistency on consumers willingness to pay for consumer goods we use an experimental auction market to investigate how inconsistency in tenderness affects consumers willingness to pay for beef we find that most consumers are risk averse with respect to sensory quality both the average tenderness and the variance of tenderness affected the consumers willingness to pay for beef reducing the uncertainty of the sensory quality by categorizing the beef into three tenderness classes increased the total value of the beef by 8

individual behavior and market performance of behavioral regularities which appear inconsistent with economic theory machina camerer 1989 this work is of interest to economists for at least two reasons first the results challenge expected utility theory as a descriptive theory of human behavior second the observations or anomalies may have important implications for resource allocation since many decisions e g choice of career or marriage partner awarding prizes or grants choosing colleagues committee chairs or speakers from other disciplines are made infrequently and with no opportunities for arbitrage it follows that widespread subrationality suggests that decisions frequently may be far from optimal further it could be that even with welldefined incentives and a well functioning market or other allocative institution the presence of boundedly rational agents will cause inefficient allocation of resources this paper discusses the latter possibility by examining three examples the representativeness heuristic the preference reversal phenomenon and the endowment effect in all three cases there are

a study of cartel stability the joint executive committee 1880 1886 this article employs weekly time series data on the joint executive committee railroad cartel from 1880 to 1886 to test empirically the proposition that observed prices reflected switches from collusive to noncooperative behavior an equilibrium model of dynamic oligopoly with asymmetric firms together with explicit functional form assumptions about costs and demand determines the estimating equations and stochastic structure of the econometric model the hypothesis that no switch took place so that price and quantity movements were solely attributable to exogenous shifts in the demand and cost functions is then tested against this alternative and rejected

a test of the theory of reference dependent preferences eight alternative methods of eliciting preferences between money and a consumption good are identified two of these are standard willingness to accept and willingness to pay measures these methods differ with respect to the reference point used and the dimension in which responses are expressed the loss aversion hypothesis of tversky and kahneman s theory of reference dependent preferences predicts systematic differences between the preferences elicited by these methods these predictions are tested by eliciting individuals preferences for two private consumption goods the experimental design is incentive compatible and controls for income and substitution effects the theory s predictions are broadly confirmed

divergence in alternative hicksian welfare measures the case of revealed preference for public amenities this paper investigates the divergence between the two hicksian welfare measures of non traded amenity improvement associated with housing first the hicksian surplus measures for amenity changes are analytically developed based on explicit specification of utility structures a hedonic two stage approach is then applied to empirically show that for quantity changes in contrast to hypothetical markets divergence in real market is small the paper also analytically develops expressions for the income and substitution effects and empirically shows that for a given income effect the greater the substitution effect the smaller the divergence between the two measures copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

valuing urban lakeview amenities using implicit and contingent markets amenities influence individual location decisions and affect overall social well being this comparative study focuses on the potential complementarity of implicit and contingent market approaches

the causes of order effects in contingent valuation surveys an experimental investigation contingent valuation researchers have found that the hypothetical values respondents place on a nested sequence of environmental goods are sensitive to the order in which the goods are presented typically the smallest bundle of goods is valued more highly if presented first than if following more comprehensive bundles such effects appear even when each bundle is valued from an exclusive list or as an alternative to any other so that income and substitution effects are controlled we conduct lab experiments where participants are asked to value sequences of nested goods for purchase from an exclusive list using an incentive compatible becker degroot marschak mechanism we test whether order effects occur in valuation for a induced value goods b actual private goods and c identical private goods that are to be donated to charities we find significant order effects when the goods are valued for own use but not when they are valued for donation

valuing non market goods using contingent valuation abstract contingent valuation is a technique being developed by economists for the valuation of environmental commodities not traded in markets this paper discusses the major problem areas associated with this method of value estimation these comprise bias strategic hypothetical and design biases the discrepancy between willingness to pay and compensation demanded the aggregation procedure the choice of question format and non use values some evidence from comparative studies is reported and comments made on the accuracy of contingent valuation answers finally the conditions under which contingent valuation seems to operate best are set out

preference anomalies preference elicitation and the discovered preference hypothesis there is wide ranging evidence much of it deriving from economics experiments of anomalies in behaviour that challenge standard preference theories this paper explores the implications of these anomalies for preference elicitation methods because methods that are used to inform public policy such as contingent valuation are based on standard preference theories their validity may be called into question by the anomaly data however on a new interpretation these anomalies do not contradict standard theory but are errors in stated preference that can be expected to disappear as people become more experienced in relevant decision environments we explore the evidence for this interpretation and what implications follow for preference elicitation methodology

status quo maintenance reconsidered changing or incomplete preferences after reviewing the evidence for status quo maintenance sqm i consider how to reconcile sqm with traditional consumer theory behavioural economists usually let agents preferences change as a function of their endowments treating the same person with different endowments as a set of distinct agents many properties of preferences then become immune to empirical test and it becomes impossible to judge whether an agent s decisions make the agent better or worse off this impedes prediction of when decision rules are likely to change sqm can alternatively be explained with unchanging preferences if preferences are incomplete sqm is then consistent with self interest and there is no reason why it should not persist

theories of cartel stability and the joint executive committee this article reexamines the experience of the joint executive committee an 1880s railroad cartel to assess the applicability of the green and porter 1984 and rotemberg and saloner 1986 theories of price wars after discussing necessary modifications to the theories i estimate a number of dynamic models to explore the causes of price wars the cyclical nature of pricing and the possibility that secret price cuts may have been given the estimates provide some support for the predictions of the first theory

multi dimensional reference dependent preferences in sealed bid auctions how most laboratory experiments differ from the field abstract we study bidding behavior in first and second price sealed bid auctions with loss averse agents our model predicts overbidding in first price induced value auctions consistent with evidence from most laboratory experiments substantially different bidding behavior could result in commodity auctions where money and auction item are consumed along different dimensions of the consumption space differences also result in second price auctions our study thereby indicates that transferring qualitative behavioral findings from induced value laboratory experiments to the field may be problematic if subjects are loss averse

up close and personal investor sophistication and the disposition effect this paper analyzes the trading records of a major discount brokerage house to investigate the disposition effect the tendency to sell stocks that have appreciated in price winners sooner than stocks that trade below the purchase price losers in contrast to previous research that has demonstrated the disposition effect by aggregating across investors our main objective is to identify differences in the disposition bias across individuals and explain this in terms of underlying investor characteristics building on the findings in experimental economics and social psychology we hypothesize that differences in investor literacy about financial markets and trading frequency are responsible in part for the variation in individual disposition effect using demographic and socioeconomic variables as proxies for investor literacy we find empirical evidence that wealthier individuals and individuals employed in professional occupations exhibit a lower disposition effect consistent with experimental economics trading frequency also tends to reduce the disposition effect we provide guidelines for investment advisors regulators and investment communities to utilize our findings and help investors make better decisions

indian farmers valuation of yield distributions will poor farmers value pro poor seeds abstract potential poverty traps among the rural poor suggest a need to reduce poor farmers vulnerability by stabilizing crop yields and limiting yield losses advances in biotechnology will help address this need directly with crops that tolerate climate fluctuation or resist biotic stresses evaluating ex ante how farmers will value these pro poor seeds is important for delivery design but also challenging this paper describes an experimental economic approach to understanding farmers valuation of such seeds using data from a survey and experiment i assess indian farmers valuation of changes in the mean variance and skewness of payoff distributions these farmers value increases in expected value but seem indifferent about higher moment changes in payoff distributions farmer traits such as wealth and risk exposure affect their valuation of these changes only mildly while various limitations to the experimental approach must qualify practical implications of these findings the experiment demonstrates the viability of conducting valuation experiments with open ended questions in developing countries

effects and value of verifiable information in a controversial market evidence from lab auctions of genetically modified food food products containing genetically modified gm ingredients have entered the market over the past decade the biotech industry and environmental groups have disseminated conflicting private information about gm foods this paper develops a unique methodology for valuing independent third party information in such a setting and applies this method to consumers willingness to pay for food products that might be gm data are collected from real consumers in an auction market setting with randomized information and labeling treatments the average value of third party information per lab participant is small but the public good value across u s consumers is shown to be quite large jel c91 d12 d82

attitudes to risk and attitudes to uncertainty experimental evidence in a series of experiments the interactions among individual attitudes towards risk and uncertainty the sign of the outcome domain and the way uncertainty is represented are tested this is done in a unified framework eliciting individual values by means of a second price auction results confirm the presence of the well known fourfold pattern of risk attitude risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses at high probability and risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses at low probability and show that this pattern can also be extended to uncertainty in the valuation of losses the modal pattern is decreasing risk and uncertainty aversion as the probability of loss increases while increasing risk and uncertainty aversion is observed for gains moreover it is found that the size of reaction to uncertainty does not depend on the outcome domain and that it persists in the face of an incentive compatible mechanism to elicit preferences

market experience eliminates some anomalies and creates new ones we report two experiments which investigate whether experience of decision making in repeated markets purges behaviour of preference reversals we investigate two behavioural mechanisms that may be shaping bids in repeated auctions a tendency to adjust bids towards previously observed market prices and a tendency to reduce bids following bad market outcomes we find little support for the former but strong support for the latter also whilst just enough market exposure eliminates the typical preference reversal phenomenon continued exposure fosters the mirror image anomaly therefore although market experience shapes behaviour in our experiments it does not generally promote consistency with standard preference theory

are adults better behaved than children age experience and the endowment effect we find that large increases in age do not reduce the endowment effect supporting the hypothesis that people have reference dependent preferences which are not changed by repeated experience getting and giving up goods

time varying competition normative models typically suggest that prices rise in periods of high demand and cost however in many markets prices fall when demand or costs rise this inconsistency occurs because the normative models assume that competitive intensity does not change with demand and cost conditions over time we therefore introduce the notion of time varying competition by suggesting that it is important not only to account for the direct effect of demand and cost on prices e g higher demand means higher prices but also the indirect effect of demand and cost changes on competition e g higher demand could cause more competition and hence lower prices we develop a general unified framework to empirically model the direct and indirect effects of demand and cost shifts on pricing in differentiated product markets our approach allows us to measure the indirect effect of multiple demand and cost drivers on competitive intensity and test predictions from alternative theories of repeated games the empirical application is to the u s photographic film industry where there are two main players kodak and fuji we find that the indirect effects are highly significant and comparable in magnitude to the direct effects competitive intensity is greater in periods of high demand and lower cost and is moderated by whether demand or costs are expected to grow or decline interestingly we find asymmetries in the competitive responses of kodak and fuji while kodak is sensitive to demand factors fuji is sensitive to costs our results suggest that market characteristics such as observability of competitor prices can be an important determinant of how competitive intensity is affected by demand and cost conditions

an endowment effect for risk experimental tests of stochastic reference points recent models of reference dependent preferences indicate that expectations may play a prominent role in the presence of behavioral anomalies a subset of such expectations based models predicts an endowment effect for risk that risk attitudes differ when reference points change from certain to stochastic in two purposefully simple risk preference experiments eliminating often discussed confounds i demonstrate both between and within subjects such an endowment effect for risk these results provide needed separation between expectations based reference dependent models allow for evaluation of recent theoretical extensions and may help to close a long standing debate in decision science on inconsistency between utility elicitation methodologies

understanding the disparity between wtp and wta endowment effect substitutability or imprecise preferences abstract although it is now generally accepted that willingness to accept exceeds willingness to pay disagreement remains as to why this disparity is shown to persist even when controlling for learning substitutability and respondents imprecision thus lending further support for the endowment effect

correlated demand shocks and price wars during booms the supergame theoretic model of price competition rotemberg and saloner 1986 is re examined in the case of serially correlated demand shocks the equilibrium price is shown to exhibit the same counter cyclical movement as in the i i d case if the discount factor and the number of firms satisfy certain relationship

economic value of wetlands based recreation abstract the loss of wetlands is an issue of growing concern previous studies have focused primarily on quantifying the commercial storm protection and energy output values of wetlands relatively little research has been devoted to quantifying the outdoor recreational value of wetlands in this paper the recreational value of wetlands is discussed conceptually within a total economic value framework total economic value contains many value components which are broadly divided into non use current use and future use values each of these value categories can be further subdivided into expenditures and consumer s surplus an empirical study was conducted to measure expenditures and consumer s surplus associated with on site current recreational uses of a coastal wetlands area aggregate expenditures were estimated at approximately 118 million and aggregate consumer s surplus was estimated at approximately 27 million these results suggest that the economic impacts and net economic benefits associated with wetlands based recreation may be substantial hence recreational functions provided by wetlands may be important considerations for wetlands policy and management

what experimental protocol influence disparities between actual and hypothetical stated values preferences elicited in hypothetical settings have recently come underscrutiny causing estimates from the contingent valuation method to bechallenged due to perceived hypothetical bias given that the receivedliterature derives value estimates using heterogeneous experimentaltechniques understanding the effects of important design parameters onthe magnitude of hypothetical bias is invaluable in this paper we addressthis issue statistically by using a meta analysis to examine data from 29experimental studies our empirical findings suggest that on averagesubjects overstate their preferences by a factor of about 3 in hypotheticalsettings and that the degree of over revelation is influenced by thedistinction between willingness to pay and willingness to accept publicversus private goods and several elicitation methods

testing static oligopoly models conduct and cost in the sugar industry 1890 1914 we explore the widespread methodology of using demand information to infer market conduct and unobserved cost components under the hypothesis of static oligopoly behavior direct measures of marginal cost and conduct indicating small market power serve as benchmarks the more competitive models yield better cost estimates the best cost estimates occur when conduct is estimated as a free parameter which in turn only slightly underestimates our direct measure it also tracks the decline in market power accompanying the industry s structural changes the methodology is largely validated although partial cost information can improve its predictive power conclusions are robust to demand function

the s shaped value function as a constrained optimum almost since the expected utility hypothesis euh was first introduced evidence has accumulated that decision makers systematically violate it in various ways one early response to the evidence was to develop ad hoc alternatives the best known of which is prospect theory daniel kahneman and amos tversky 1979 1 more recent responses have relaxed the independence axiom or other axioms underlying the euh see mark machina 1987 for a very readable survey of the evidence and responses despite the high intellectual caliber of much of this work there is an important sense in which it has been retrograde theory is adjusted to the evidence by weakening not strengthening its predictive power in other areas such as the theory of the firm or the theory of money economists have followed a different research strategy more subtle constraints such as transactions costs or informational imperfections are sought to explain data that seem anomalous according to received theory when successful such a strategy more clearly delineates the realm in which the older theory is applicable and makes new testable predictions outside that realm thus theory is progressively strengthened to my knowledge only jonathan leland 1986 1988 has adopted such a progressive strategy in a theoretical investigation of euh anomalies the key assumptions of his approximate expected utility theory aeu are 1 inexperience and or cognitive limitations make the true utility function inaccessible so some approximation must be used but 2 decision makers efficiently allocate finite resources so as to minimize the resulting errors he formalizes these assumptions which he applies to probability assessments as well as to utilities in terms of a constraint on the number n of steps allowed in a step function approximation with the optimal approximation defined as that minimizing expected squared error his aeu theory is able to explain many of the major euh anomalies and reduces to ordinary euh in areas in which relevant experience accumulates for example in competitive markets as noted by peter knez vernon l smith and arlington w williams 1985 and don l coursey john l hovis and william d schultze 1987 the prevalence and magnitude of anomalies seems to decline in such settings the purpose of this note is to present a variant on leland s aeu i propose an approximate utility function or value function in which utility increments are weighted by a sensitivity function the resource constraint is that overall sensitivity is limited but prior to observable decisions it can be allocated freely along the continuum of potential wealth increments my approach has three advantages it predicts an s shaped value function when agents maximize expected sensitivity at actual choice opportunities given very plausible assumptions regarding the distribution of such opportunities recall that the assumption that decision makers maximize an s shaped value function such as that depicted in figure 1 is the centerpiece of prospect theory economics department university of california santa cruz ca 95064 i appreciate the comments of jonathan leland amos tversky and two anonymous referees on earlier drafts of this paper the usual caveat definitely applies ithe authors of prospect theory call their model descriptive as opposed to normative but do not consider it ad hoc because of its connections with the psychophysical literature however no substantial connections of prospect theory with generally accepted economic principles for example optimality have previously been demonstrated it is in this narrow economist s sense that i use the term ad hoc the more recent work of ariel rubinstein 1988 and tversky and kahneman 1986 underscores the difficulty of reconciling such a descriptive approach to the expected utility hypothesis

is risk aversion really correlated with wealth how estimated probabilities introduce spurious correlation economists frequently focus on correlations between wealth and risk preferences but rarely observe the probabilities needed to test this relationship empirically these unobserved probabilities are typically estimated via profit or production functions conditioned on wealth correlates which may leave statistical fingerprints on subsequently estimated risk aversion coefficients and confound correlations between wealth and risk preferences using data from an experiment with observable probabilities we compare risk aversion coefficients based on true probabilities with those based on probabilities estimated using standard approaches and show how estimated probabilities can change risk aversion coefficients substantially and introduce spurious correlation between risk aversion and wealth

is the experimental auction a dynamic market experimental auctions are generally thought of as static markets this paper presents the results of an experimental auction designed to test whether participants perceptions regarding the relative difficulty of delaying or reversing a transaction outside the experimental market systematically affect their willingness to pay bids the results show that auction participants perceptions significantly impact their bids in a manner that is consistent with real option theory these results suggest that economists must be careful to consider the existence of outside markets when designing experimental auctions

market simulation and the provision of public goods a non paternalistic response to anomalies in environmental evaluation most normative economics assumes that individuals have coherent preferences this paper responds to growing evidence of failures of this assumption particularly in the context of stated preference methods widely used in environmental policy analysis it proposes a non paternalistic concept of consumer sovereignty that does not assume preference coherence is satisfied by competitive markets and can be applied to the provision of public goods a key implication is that decisions should reflect valuations revealed at the point of consumption such valuations which can be inferred from hedonic prices may be less susceptible to willingness to accept wta willingness to pay wtp disparities than those elicited by stated preference methods

substitutability experience and the value disparity evidence from the marketplace abstract recent empirical evidence suggests that important disparities exist between willingness to pay and compensation demanded for the same good these results which clearly contradict closely held economic doctrines have led some influential commentators to call for an entirely new economic paradigm to displace conventional neoclassical theory this study examines the generality of these experimental findings by going to a well functioning marketplace and examining more than 350 individual decisions across two incentive compatible elicitation mechanisms the data suggest that behavior of individuals with intense experience approaches neoclassical predictions any observed wta wtp disparity amongst this group is negligible

buyer exuberance and price premium it has been demonstrated that the real estate market disciplines irrational price premiums however the persistence of price premiums begs the question of what causes price premiums in the first place this paper seeks to examine two explanations for price premiums the conventional information asymmetry explanation and the buyer exuberance explanation as motivated by behavioural studies the results show that information asymmetry explains price premiums and this finding is robust across two sub hypotheses tested namely information differences arising from market familiarity and product characteristics in addition we find that price premiums are also caused by buyer exuberance specifically exuberance arising from representativeness purchasing power and anchoring effects

exchange asymmetries in productive assets tools fertilizer or cash abstract exchange asymmetries in individual decision making have attracted substantial attention from economists since thaler 1980 referred to the phenomenon that losses are weighted more heavily than gains as an endowment effect and related it to loss aversion and prospect theory we used a field experiment to investigate exchange asymmetries in productive assets among poor rural respondents in ethiopia farmers were randomly allocated two types of productive assets tool or fertilizer or cash with a choice to keep the productive asset cash or exchange it for cash productive asset loss aversion was proxied with a separate experiment and was used to assess the importance of endowment effect theory to explain exchange asymmetries our study finds a significant exchange asymmetry and a greater exchange asymmetry for the more popular tool than for fertilizer loss aversion could explain a small but significant part of the exchange asymmetry in tools but trade experience did not reduce the exchange asymmetry the findings are relevant for whether to use targeted in kind or cash transfers to stimulate technology adoption and enhance food security among poor rural households the results imply that in kind transfers may stimulate input use or investments more than cash transfers

a new explanation for the wtp wta disparity abstract we propose a new explanation for the wtp wta disparity in experiments and surveys uncertainty irreversibility and limited learning opportunities can generate commitment costs driving a wedge between wtp and wta we present experimental evidence that supports our hypothesis

the endowment effect in games abstract in a laboratory experiment we study whether the endowment effect exists in a social and strategic context we employ a within subjects design whereby participants are asked for their willingness to accept wta or willingness to pay wtp to play a series of 2 2 games in the second part of the experiment we study the endowment effect in lotteries with the same payoffs as the games in the first part our findings provide robust evidence for the endowment effect both in games and in lotteries with the size of the effect actually being larger in games than in lotteries we also find that the endowment effect can partly be attributed to optimism

collusive conduct in duopolies multimarket contact and cross ownership in the mobile telephone industry the deregulation of the telecommunications industry has resulted in a variety of industry structures which have been created in hopes of increasing competition one example is the licensing of cellular telephone services in the united states where the fcc created duopolies in which two firms were granted licenses to compete in strictly defined product and geographic markets taking advantage of the unique regulatory environment we test to what degree duopolistic competition leads to competitive market outcomes we find that cross ownership and multimarket contact are important factors in explaining non competitive prices

markets and the measurement of value consumer s surplus and the hicksian measures of compensating and equivalent variation have a long history in empirical economic analysis however at both the theoretical and the empirical level economists psychologists and public choice theorists have not been able to reach a significant consensus regarding the usefulness of these measures economic theorists have only recently dissected the differences which exist between alternative welfare measures in a systematic and transparent fashion in willig 1976 hausman 1981 and takayama 1984 the role of income in determining the correct theoretical measurements of compensating and equivalent variations was exposed during this same period of time theoretical results obtained by the psychologists kahneman and tversky 1979 indicated that the fundamental structure of preferences upon which the theoretical economic results are based is flawed the so called prospect theory of decision developed by these authors indicated that measured of welfare based upon payment will differ from measures of welfare based upon compensation because of the fact that individuals will value losses at a greater marginal rate than gains this difference was then predicted to dominate any income effect important in the economist s model finally this period recorded the emergence of many demand revealing processes which provide individuals with appropriate incentives to accurately reveal their preferences as summarized in coursey and schulze 1986 one interpretation of the literature on incentive compatibility suggests a set of well defined guidelines for improving both the accuracy and validity of compensating and equivalent variation measures these differences in professional preferences regarding what is important in improving the accuracy of economic welfare measurements led john

predicting buyer seller pricing disparities numerous studies have shown that compensation demanded cd to give up a commodity often greatly exceeds willingness to pay wtp to obtain the same commodity even in incentive compatible experiments that penalize strategic misrepresentation observed cd wtp disparities are too large to be reconciled with traditional assumptions of economic rationality a prospect theory based behavioral framework for predicting cd and wtp is proposed which produces five distinct transaction encoding rules any one of which can in principle apply to a buyer or a seller according to this framework cd wtp gaps occur when buyers and sellers encode the prospective transaction differently and gaps can occur in multiple ways and vary in size depending on encoding the transaction encoding framework was tested in two experiments in experiment 1 model fits to subjects cd and wtp for lottery tickets were consistent with the hypothesis that buyers and sellers encode transaction problems differently moreover the quite large observed cd wtp gaps were explained fully by encoding when differences between buyers and sellers encoding processes were taken into account their estimated utility value and probability weighting functions did not differ the present framework and results show that the widely cited endowment effect is but one of several ways in which loss aversion can give rise to cd wtp gaps consistent with this broadened perspective experiment 2 demonstrated cd wtp gaps in the absence of an endowment effect and in the absence of rational economic causes the transaction encoding framework 1 provides a structured approach for predicting and testing the effects of a variety of task factors on pricing behavior and transaction outcomes and 2 reveals the useful property that in many cases the ratio cd wtp can be interpreted as a direct measure of the degree of loss aversion

neoclassical theory versus prospect theory evidence from the marketplace several experimental studies have provided evidence that suggest indifference curves have a kink around the current endowment level these results which clearly contradict closely held economic doctrines have led some influential commentators to call for an entirely new economic paradigm to displace conventional neoclassical theory e g prospect theory which invokes psychological effects this paper pits neoclassical theory against prospect theory by investigating data drawn from more than 375 subjects actively participating in a well functioning marketplace the pattern of results suggests that prospect theory adequately organizes behavior among inexperienced consumers but consumers with intense market experience behave largely in accordance with neoclassical predictions moreover the data are consistent with the notion that consumers learn to overcome the endowment effect in situations beyond specific problems they have previously encountered this transference of behavior across domains has important implications in both a positive and normative sense

the effect of knowledge on the disparity between hypothetical and real willingness to pay the use of a contingent valuation cv method is controversial among economists because it is based on hypothetical rather than real economic choices this paper reports the results of an experiment designed to elicit the real and the hypothetical willingness to pay wtp for a private good the effect of different settings of knowledge direct and indirect of the good on subjects valuation behaviour are investigated the findings show that i a direct knowledge of the good reduces the observed disparity between hypothetical and real wtp and that ii different settings of knowledge generate different perceptions of the characteristics of the good

experimental tests of the endowment effect abstract the endowment effect which predicts undertrading and a willingness to accept greater than willingness to pay is studied using responses that remove all reference to buying or selling and focuses only on choice tasks the results significantly lower the willingness to pay willingness to accept discrepancy but the latter is still significant a high efficiency open display uniform price auction is used to exchange mugs for money since mugs are randomly assigned to half of 2n subjects n 2 mugs are predicted to trade less than n 2 mugs trade on average but more than previously reported the phenomenon exists but is less prominent than reported previously

using hicksian surplus measures to examine consistency of individual preferences evidence from a field experiment this paper pits neoclassical theory against prospect theory by investigating several clean tests of the competing hypotheses consistent with previous work the field experimental data suggest that prospect theory adequately organizes behavior among inexperienced consumers whereas consumers with intense market experience behave largely in accordance with neoclassical predictions the data indicate that the convergence in values occurs entirely because of lower hicksian equivalent surplus values

information and the divergence between willingness to accept and willingness to pay abstract there is considerable empirical and experimental evidence that there is a divergence between willingness to accept compensation to give up a good and willingness to pay to obtain a good this divergence persists even when the good in question is small relative to income a result in apparent conflict with standard economic theory this paper develops a theoretical bidding model with costly information acquisition to explain this divergence the model generates a gap between offers to sell and bids to buy consistent with the experimental results we argue that the model does a better job of explaining empirical and experimental data than either of the two commonly invoked theoretical explanations the endowment effect and the substitution effect

viewpoint on the generalizability of lab behaviour to the field abstract we can think of no question more fundamental to experimental economics than understanding whether and under what circumstances laboratory results generalize to naturally occurring environments in this paper we extend levitt and list 2006 to the class of games in which financial payoffs and doing the right thing are not necessarily in conflict we argue that behaviour is crucially linked to not only the preferences of people but also the properties of the situation by doing so we are able to provide a road map of the psychological and economic properties of people and situations that might interfere with generalizability of laboratory result from a broad class of games

an experimental investigation of transaction costs abstract this research builds on hoffman and spitzer 1982 and 1986 and coursey hoffman and spitzer 1987 and investigates how transaction costs may alter price patterns and economic efficiency in markets sixteen experimental markets were conducted which were designed to have different levels of transaction costs the transaction costs were of two types either as a consequence of strategic price setting due to potential holdouts or due to the number of traders who had to contract to trigger a synergistic payoff the results of the markets indicated that transaction costs had the anticipated influence on the price patterns and the efficiency of the markets

scientific numerology preference anomalies and environmental policymaking recently an abundance of experimental evidence has been gathered that is consonant with the notion that individual preferences are inconsistent and unstable these empirical results potentially undermine the theoretical foundation of welfare economics as the degree of preference lability claimed suggests that perhaps no optimization principles underlie even the most straightforward of choices yet policymakers in the environmental arena continue to prescribe policies based on economics based methods that are constructed on the very principles that have been directly refuted are policymakers creatures of habit that move at glacial speed or is there something deeper behind their inertness in this study i explore this issue within the u s context and argue that there is some rationality behind current public policy decisionmaking i then explore whether the empirical evidence supports the view that policymakers should take preference anomalies seriously as a case study i focus on some of my recent findings on preference inconsistencies in the marketplace

investment under uncertainty testing the options model with professional traders abstract an important class of investment decisions is characterized by unrecoverable sunk costs resolution of uncertainty through time and the ability to invest in the future as an alternative to investing today the options model provides guidance in such settings including an investment decision rule called the bad news principle the downside investment state influences the investment decision whereas the upside investment state is ignored this study takes a new approach to examining predictions of the options model by using the tools of experimental economics our evidence drawn from student and professional trader subject pools is broadly consonant with the options model

willingness to pay and willingness to accept some evidence of an endowment effect the source of the disparity between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta measures of value has been the subject of recent debate in the literature this paper presents the results of a pilot experiment designed to test whether contrary to the findings of shogren et al 1994 the endowment effect might be a significant source of the wtp wta divergence the results are a direct contradiction of what the substitutability argument would predict and thus indicate that the endowment effect cannot yet be dismissed as a possible driving force behind the disparity

auction fever rising revenue in second price auction formats the prevalent term auction fever visualizes that ascending auctions inconsistent with theory are likely to provoke higher bids than one shot auctions to explore and isolate causes of auction fever experimentally we design four different strategy proof auction formats and order these according to expected rising bids based on pseudo endowment effect arguments psychological ownership and disparity between willingness to pay and willingness to accept observed revenues in the experiment in the four formats rank as expected if bidders have private uncertain values the private information of a bidder is the distribution of her value a control treatment supports our view that the traditional private certain values approach prevents auction fever in the laboratory another control treatment with a procurement auction relates the auction fever bids to bids in a one shot auction with real endowments we conclude that when bidders are uncertain about their valuations auctions that foster pseudo endowment may raise bids and revenues

multiple unit holdings yield attenuated endowment effects previous endowment effect experiments have examined circumstances in which people encounter a single unit of a good e g one chocolate we contrast single unit treatments with multiple unit treatments in which participants encounter several units of a good e g five chocolates we observe endowment effects of typical magnitude for singleton holdings but attenuated endowment effects for multiple unit holdings moreover endowment effects consistently arise for singletons even as the definition of a unit is altered for instance participants holding one piece of chocolate show an endowment effect of standard size but so do participants holding one box of chocolates yet the box contains about 20 individual pieces of chocolate and participants given that many separate pieces show a substantially attenuated endowment effect we thus propose the property of unit dependence the definition of a unit can change but contingent on any given definition a pronounced endowment effect may emerge for singletons but not multiples this paper was accepted by teck ho decision analysis

the disparity between willingness to pay and compensation demanded another look at laboratory evidence abstract the existence of a disparity between willingness to pay and compensation demanded is tested in three controlled experiments the results indicate a modest initial disparity which is reduced in a learning environment

learning to like what you have explaining the endowment effect the endowment effect describes the fact that people demand much more to give up an object than they are willing to spend to acquire it the existence of this effect has been documented in numerous experiments we attempt to explain this effect by showing that evolution favors individuals whose preferences embody an endowment effect the reason is that an endowment effect improves one s bargaining position in bilateral trades we show that for a general class of evolutionary processes strictly positive endowment effects will survive in the long run

using laboratory experimental auctions in marketing research a case study of new packaging for fresh beef this paper illustrates the use of laboratory experimental auctions in a pretest market research program for new products we review the experimental auctions literature discuss the range of auction mechanisms available and present the advantages and disadvantages of using a particular mechanism for a laboratory pretest market we then present a step by step example of how a theoretically incentive compatible auction mechanism fifth price sealed bid was used in a laboratory pretest market for vacuum packaged beef based on the illustration we discuss the potential for using laboratory experimental auctions in pretest market research we present the limitations that may be encountered in such applications and outline research aimed at improving the behavioral properties of the technique

preference reversals for ambiguity aversion this paper finds preference reversals in measurements of ambiguity aversion even if psychological and informational circumstances are kept constant the reversals are of a fundamentally different nature than the reversals found before because they cannot be explained by context dependent weightings of attributes we offer an explanation based on sugden s random reference theory with different elicitation methods generating different random reference points then measurements of ambiguity aversion that use willingness to pay are confounded by loss aversion and hence overestimate ambiguity aversion this paper was accepted by teck ho decision analysis

more laboratory evidence on the disparity between willingness to pay and compensation demanded abstract recent experimental work showing a disparity between willingness to pay for and compensation demanded to give up lottery tickets is contrary to economists ideas about rationality presented here are the results of experiments in which subjects participate in second price auctions to indicate willingness to pay and compensation demanded for lottery tickets that have fixed odds of winning or losing money when the auction institution used has truthful revelation of preferences as the dominant strategy and that strategy is announced to subjects the difference between the measures of value decreases significantly the within subject comparison design provides a more discriminating measure of behavior than between subject comparison designs used previously

what s in a message the longitudinal influence of a supportive versus combative orientation on the performance of nonprofits in this article the authors propose that in the long run a nonprofit organization with supportively oriented positioning e g promoting a cause is likely to survive longer and achieve more donations compared with a nonprofit with a combative orientation e g fighting against something to test this proposition the authors adopt a three pronged approach that 1 uses publicly available financial data from nonprofits tax filings over a ten year period 2 measures annual donor pledges from a field study with a registered nonprofit organization and 3 examines actual donation behavior of participants in a longitudinal lab study moreover the authors test this proposition for donations of money as well as time they consider various theoretical mechanisms that might cause the proposed effect such as regulatory focus theory inertia in giving and the preponderance of supportive charities

valuing public goods discrete versus continuous contingent valuation responses independent applications of open ended and dichotomous choice formats are compared using tests of means estimating joint likelihood functions and nonparametric tests of distributions the null hypothesis of no difference in the open ended and dichotomous choice estimates of central tendency cannot be rejected for two out of three data sets while estimated standard deviations are significantly different for all three data sets in addition actual dichotomous choice means and standard deviations exceed those from comparable synthetic dichotomous choice data sets suggesting either open ended questions underestimate values or dichotomous choice bid structures may lead to systematic overestimates

willingness to pay and compensation demanded experimental evidence of an unexpected disparity in measures of value aside from possible income effects measures of the maximum amounts people will pay to avoid a loss and the minimum compensation necessary for them to accept it are generally assumed to be equivalent unexpectedly wide variations between these sums however have been noted in survey responses to hypothetical options this paper reports the results of a series of experiments that confronted people with actual money payments and cash compensations the results indicate that the compensation measure of value seems to exceed significantly the willingness to pay measure which would appear to call into some question various rules of entitlement damage assessments and interpretations of indifference curves

modeling the effects of mergers in procurement in procurement settings mergers among suppliers reduce buyers choice sets and can harm buyers by eliminating their preferred supplier or reducing their negotiating leverage i develop a stochastic economic model that predicts the effects of mergers based on information that commonly is available to antitrust authorities i derive general expressions for the ex ante expected changes in price buyer utility and supplier profit each becomes tractable under certain distributional assumptions the model predicts that average prices will increase by more than 40 due to the recently litigated acquisition of power reviews by bazaarvoice in the absence of an effective remedy

the impact of cyclical demand movements on collusive behavior recent work by rotemberg and saloner 1986 investigates the effect of the business cycle on optimal collusive pricing by specifying that demand is subject to i i d shocks an implication of the i i d assumption is that firms expectations on future demand are unrelated to the current level of demand we put forth a model that allows for both the level of current demand and firms expectations on future demand to change over time thus it captures two important properties of the business cycle our analysis reveals that while the gain to deviating from a collusive agreement is greatest during booms firms find it most difficult to collude during recessions as the forgone profits from inducing a price war are relatively low an implication of this effect for pricing behavior is that at the same level of demand price is lower when demand is declining than when demand is rising consistent with previous theoretical work we find that firms price countercyclically for a range of values for the discount factor however numerical simulations reveal a greater tendency for firms to price countercyclically during recessions than during booms

hicksian welfare measures within a regret theory framework for many years the neoclassical economic paradigm for consumer theory has been based on axioms of rational behavior equivalent to utility maximization for decisions under complete certainty and another set of axioms equivalent to expected utility eu maximization for decisions under risk von neumann and morgenstern recently however this theory has come under fire both from within the economics profession and from outside due to a growing body of evidence suggesting that actual choices display consistent and predictable violations of the behavioral implications of these axioms particularly within the context of risk and uncertainty at least since the 1950s with simon s work on bounded rationality alternative models of behavior have been proposed in the past few years this area has received increasing emphasis notable contributions include the work of akerlof and dickens on cognitive dissonance kahneman and tversky on prospect theory heiner on reliability theory bell and loomes and sugden on regret theory and machina on local approximations to eu functions to date work on these alternative theories has focused on empirical testing of their predictions and their abilities to explain the observed violations of expected utility theory no attempt has yet been made to study formally the implications of these alternatives for welfare analysis and the definition and measurement of the costs or benefits resulting from projects or events yet since the estimates of such costs or benefits often play an important role in public decisions it is important to know whether the standard welfare results based on the eu model continue to hold under what appear to be more realistic theories of choice under uncertainty this paper explores this question in the context of one particular theory namely regret theory this does not imply that the various paradigms are necessarily mutually exclusive for example regret may be an important factor in decision making and at the same time individuals may display bias concerning small probability events as discussed by kahneman and tversky however this paper will focus only on regret to simplify the analysis regret theory was chosen from among the different alternative theories because it has intuitive appeal it contains eu theory as a special case and it is capable of explaining some observed forms of behavior that are inconsistent with eu theory but that are observed consistently in various empirical contexts in addition decisions under regret theory can be formulated within a mathematical optimization framework similar to that used for eu

a new meta analysis on the wtp wta disparity abstract this study reports a new meta analysis of papers that elicit willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept compensation wta measures of value for the same good we investigate the effects of type of good and several survey design features on the wtp wta disparity measured as the logarithm of the ratio of mean wta to mean wtp confirming horowitz and mcconnell s 2002 pioneering meta analysis we find the disparity is smaller for ordinary private goods than for public and non market goods that it is not solely an artifact of using hypothetical transactions or other weak experimental or survey methods and that it is smaller for studies using student subjects in addition we find that the disparity is smaller when subjects have experience valuing the good in real markets or through repeated experimental trials in contrast to horowitz and mcconnell we find the disparity is significantly smaller in studies using incentive compatible elicitation mechanisms the disparity is smaller in more recent studies an effect that is attributable only in part to changes in study characteristics

risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments abstract this paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments given consumers limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk averse consumers using the concept of certainty equivalence this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers risk aversion for adopting energy efficient systems these systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk free the curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances the proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables the model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in switzerland the estimated curvatures reject the risk neutrality hypothesis the range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings the analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay especially when the system is comprised of several components