the dog that did not bark the eitc for single mothers in the netherlands abstract we study the extension of an eitc for single mothers in the netherlands to mothers with a youngest child 12 to 15 years of age this reform increased the net income gain of moving into employment for the treatment group by 31 using both dd and rd we show that this reform had a negligible effect on labour participation with tight confidence intervals around zero our results are at odds with a number of related studies this finding may be due to our treatment group of single mothers of which the youngest child is relatively old or because the reform we consider was less salient furthermore related studies typically study changes in a tax credit which was part of a broader reform package making it harder to isolate the effect of the tax credit also we show that using single women without children as the control group as is commonly done in related studies can be problematic

the effect of taxes on labor supply in the underground economy this paper uses micro data from a randomized survey carried out in the metropolitan area of quebec city canada to analyze the decision to evade taxes and work in the underground economy the results indicate that taxes distort labor market activities away from the regular sector to the underground sector but the distortion is small for the average worker the distortion is large however for particular groups of the population such as welfare claimants copyright 1994 by american economic association

assessing the effects of reemployment bonuses on job search a regression discontinuity approach abstract this study examines the impacts of reemployment bonuses that is the incentive payments to unemployment insurance ui recipients who find a job within a specified period using korean data a sharp discontinuity in treatment assignment at age 55 identifies the effect of increased reemployment bonuses on unemployment duration and on subsequent job duration the results indicate that increases in the reemployment bonus boost the job finding hazards of ui claimants early in their unemployment spells during the bonus qualification period and significantly shorten the duration of ui spells by 0 16 to 0 42 months 0 68 to 1 82 weeks in addition employment stability is not significantly affected by an increased bonus which implies no negative influence of the bonus on subsequent job match quality the simulated estimates show that the increase in tax revenue and the decrease in ui benefit payment caused by the behavioral response of ui recipients are large enough to offset the increased cost of the reemployment bonus

structural empirical evaluation of job search monitoring to evaluate search effort monitoring of unemployed workers it is important to take account of post unemployment wages and job to job mobility we structurally estimate a model with search channels using a controlled trial in which monitoring is randomized the data include registers and survey data on search behavior we find that the opportunity to move to better paid jobs in employment reduces the extent to which monitoring induces substitution toward formal search channels in unemployment job mobility compensates for adverse long run effects of monitoring on wages we examine counterfactual policies against moral hazard like reemployment bonuses and changes of the benefits path

estimating the effects of a time limited earnings subsidy for welfare leavers in the self sufficiency project ssp welfare demonstration members of a randomly assigned treatment group could receive a subsidy for full time work the subsidy was available for 3 years but only to people who began working full time within 12 months of random assignment a simple optimizing model suggests that the eligibility rules created an establishment incentive to find a job and leave welfare within a year of random assignment and an entitlement incentive to choose work over welfare once eligibility was established building on this insight we develop an econometric model of welfare participation that allows us to separate the two effects and estimate the impact of the earnings subsidy on welfare entry and exit rates among those who achieved eligibility the combination of the two incentives explains the time profile of the experimental impacts which peaked 15 months after random assignment and faded relatively quickly our findings suggest that about half of the peak impact of ssp was attributable to the establishment incentive despite the extra work effort generated by ssp the program had no lasting impact on wages and little or no long run effect on welfare participation

are two carrots better than one the effects of adding employment services to financial incentive programs for welfare recipients the self sufficiency project ssp was a social experiment conducted in two canadian provinces during the 1990s that tested a generous financial incentive program for welfare recipients a little known subsidiary experiment called ssp plus had a three way design that tested the incremental effect of adding employment services to the generous financial incentive program employment services are viewed by many welfare analysts as an important component of an overall strategy for helping welfare recipients escape poverty and achieve stable employment this paper presents the results of the ssp plus experiment adding employment services encouraged more people to take up the earnings supplement and it appeared to have long term effects on full time employment and welfare receipt this might be because the services improved the jobs people obtained compared to program participants who lacked the added services ssp plus members had higher earnings and wage rates and also appear to have held more sustainab

measuring the effect of subsidized training programs on movements in and out of employment despite over two decades of u s experience in operating large scale subsidized training programs for low income and unemployed workers the effects of these programs are still highly controversial the controversy arises from the difficulty of specifying the model of participant outcomes in the absence of training that is necessary in any nonexperimental program evaluation in this paper we suggest that some of these difficulties may be overcome by focusing on a very simple measure of outcomes namely the probability of employment we present a variety of estimates of the effect of training on the probability of employment for the 1976 cohort of adult male participants in the comprehensive employment and training act ceta program our methods range from a simple comparison of pre and post training employment probabilities between trainees and nonparticipants to a fully specified first order markov model of employment probabilities with individual heterogeneity there is consistent evidence across methods that ceta participation increased the probability of employment in the three years after training by from 2 to 5 percentage points classroom training programs appear to have had significantly larger effects than on the job programs although the estimated effects of both kinds of programs are positive we also find that movements in and out of employment for trainees and nonparticipants are reasonably well described by a first order process conditional on individual heterogeneity in the context of this model ceta participation appears to have increased both the probability of moving into employment and the probability of continuing employment

the employment effects of low wage subsidies abstract low wage subsidies are often proposed as a solution to the unemployment problem among the low skilled but the empirical evidence on their effects is still scarce this paper examines the employment effects of a finnish payroll tax subsidy scheme which is targeted at the employers of older full time low wage workers the system s clear eligibility criteria open up an opportunity for a reliable estimation of the causal impacts of the subsidy scheme our results indicate that the subsidy system had no effect on the employment rate or wages of the eligible groups but it increased slightly working hours among those already at work

heterogeneous treatment and self selection in a wage subsidy experiment abstract the self sufficiency project ssp is a research and demonstration project that offered a generous time limited income supplement to randomly selected welfare applicants under two conditions the first the eligibility condition required that they remain on welfare for at least 12 months the second the qualification condition required that they find a full time job within 12 months after establishing eligibility in this paper we focus on a neglected and important feature of the program namely that the financial reward for becoming qualified is inversely related to the expected wage rate under very simple assumptions we show that those who have a low expected wage rate have a clear incentive to establish eligibility empirical non parametric evidence strongly suggests that individuals self select into eligibility we jointly estimate a participation equation and a wage equation that are correlated through individual random effects our results show that the omission of self selectivity into qualification translates into slightly underestimated treatment effects

war pillage and markets neoclassical economic theory has produced an extensive body of knowledge about market exchange based on cooperative relations private property this leads to an artificial dichotomy between cooperation and conflict though it is best to view market exchange as lying along a continuum of conflict and cooperation conflict and cooperation are intertwined from a game theoretic model of hobbes world i show that a number of property rights structures are possible each is characterized as possessing varying degrees of conflict and cooperation finally from a repeated game i show how conflictual relations mutual predation may support more cooperative relations private property this new equilibrium is sub game perfect

what works a meta analysis of recent active labor market program evaluations we summarize the estimates from over 200 recent studies of active labor market programs we classify the estimates by type of program and participant group and distinguish between three different post program time horizons using regression models for the estimated program effect for studies that model the probability of employment and for the sign and significance of the estimated effect for all the studies in our sample we conclude that 1 average impacts are close to zero in the short run but become more positive 2 3 years after completion of the program 2 the time profile of impacts varies by type of program with larger average gains for programs that emphasize human capital accumulation 3 there is systematic heterogeneity across participant groups with larger impacts for females and participants who enter from long term unemployment 4 active labor market programs are more likely to show positive impacts in a recession

when financial work incentives pay for themselves evidence from a randomized social experiment for welfare recipients abstract this paper summarizes early findings from a social experiment that provided financial incentives for new welfare recipients to leave welfare and work full time the financial incentive was essentially a negative income tax with a requirement that people work at least 30 h week early results show that the financial incentive increased full time employment earnings and income and reduced poverty furthermore at the end of the period discussed in this paper the program was paying for itself through increased tax revenues

the value of school facility investments evidence from a dynamic regression discontinuity design author s cellini stephanie riegg ferreira fernando rothstein jesse abstract despite extensive public infrastructure spending surprisingly little is known about its economic return in this paper we estimate the value of school facility investments using housing markets standard models of local public goods imply that school districts should spend up to the point where marginal increases would have zero effect on local housing prices our research design isolates exogenous variation in investments by comparing school districts where referenda on bond issues targeted to fund capital expenditures passed and failed by narrow margins we extend this traditional regression discontinuity approach to identify the dynamic treatment effects of bond authorization on local housing prices student achievement and district composition our results indicate that california school districts underinvest in school facilities passing a referendum causes immediate sizable increases in home prices implying a willingness to pay on the part of marginal homebuyers of 1 50 or more for each 1 of capital spending these effects do not appear to be driven by changes in the income or racial composition of homeowners and the impact on test scores appears to explain only a small portion of the total housing price effect c 2010 by the president and fellows of harvard college and the massachusetts institute of technology

do wage subsidies provide a stepping stone to employment for recent college graduates evidence from a randomized experiment in jordan abstract this study examines the impact of a randomized experiment in jordan in which female community college graduates were assigned to receive a wage subsidy voucher the wage voucher led to a 38 percentage point increase in employment in the short run but the average effect is much smaller and no longer statistically significant after the voucher period has expired the extra job experience gained as a result of the wage subsidy does not provide a stepping stone to new jobs for these recent graduates which appears to be due to productivity levels not rising above a binding minimum wage

beneficiaries from federal transfers to municipalities the case of israel in this paper we have shown which variables affect the size of grants given by the government to cities in israel we have also shown that aside from demographic variables which alone account for a very large portion of the variance there is also a political residual effect where cities with mayors who are members of the in political party fared better than other cities this effect is felt mainly through the general and not the earmarked portion of the grant and was more prevalent when the likud was in power than when labor ruled

low wage employment subsidies versus the welfare state this paper is a brief for the introduction of a subsidy to any qualified firm for its use of low wage employees as a means to reduce the unemployment and raise the pay of disadvantaged workers there would be a case for such a wage subsidy in all the advanced market economies and certainly the american one regardless of recent trends the case has grown stronger however with the worsening of the relative wages and especially the unemployment rates of low age workers the globalization of investment and the bias of technical progress are the causes most often suggested i would add the growth of the welfare system the public entitlements to hospitalization to retirement and disability insurance and to the benefits labeled welfare in the narrow sense since this factor tends to be overlooked i devote section i to it section ii proceeds to the case for a low wage employment subsidy it will be clear that the beneficial effects of the subsidy on disadvantaged workers are the mirror opposite of the harmful side effects of the welfare system side effects that the subsidy would counteract i side effects of the welfare system

the impact of the self sufficiency project on the employment behaviour of former welfare recipients the self sufficiency project ssp was a canadian randomized trial in which the program group had 12 months to find full time employment in order to qualify for a subsidy that roughly doubled their pre tax earnings for the next three years we find evidence of significant impacts of ssp on non employment and employment durations for the treated group simulation results show an impact on the employment rate at 52 months after random assignment in the range of 7 to 11 percentage points this is approximately a 25 increase in the employment rate compared with having no treatment

viewpoint empirical evidence and tax policy design lessons from the mirrlees review this paper examines the role of evidence in drawing up the recommendations for tax reform in the mirrlees review the arguments are organised loosely under five related headings i key margins of adjustment ii measurement of effective tax rates iii the importance of information and complexity iv evidence on the size of responses v implications from theory for tax design although the mirrlees review focuses on all aspects of tax reform the focus is this paper is on the taxation of earnings with some examples drawn from the taxation of consumption and savings ce memoire examine le role des resultats dans la confection des recommandations pour la reforme fiscale dans l enquete mirrlees les arguments sont regroupes sous cinq rubriques i les importantes marges d ajustement ii la mesure des taux d imposition effective iii l importance de l information et de la complexite iv constat sur la taille des reponses et v les implications pour la theorie du design des politiques d imposition meme si l enquete mirrlees a examine tous les aspects de la reforme fiscale ce texte met l accent sur l impot sur les remunerations avec quelques exemples portant sur l impot sur la consommation et l epargne

female labour supply human capital and welfare reform we estimate a dynamic model of employment human capital accumulation including education and savings for women in the united kingdom exploiting tax and benefit reforms and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy we find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers returns to experience which are important in determining the longer term effects of policy increase with education but experience mainly accumulates when in full time employment tax credits are welfare improving in the u k increase lone mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts

distributional impacts of the self sufficiency project a large literature has been concerned with the impacts of recent welfare reforms on income earnings transfers and labor force attachment while one strand of this literature relies on observational studies conducted with large survey sample data sets a second makes use of data generated by experimental evaluations of changes to means tested programs much of the overall literature has focused on mean impacts in this paper we use random assignment experimental data from canada s self sufficiency project ssp to look at impacts of this unique reform on the distributions of income earnings and transfers ssp offered members of the treatment group a generous subsidy for working full time quantile treatment effect qte estimates show there was considerable heterogeneity in the impacts of ssp on the distributions of earnings transfers and total income this heterogeneity would be missed by looking only at average treatment effects moreover these heterogeneous impacts are consistent with the predictions of labor supply theory during the period when the subsidy is available the ssp impact on the earnings distribution is zero for the bottom half of the distribution the quantiles of the ssp earnings distribution are higher for much of the upper third of the distribution except at the very top where the quantiles of the earnings distribution are the same under either program or possibly lower under ssp further during the period when ssp receipt was possible the impacts on the quantiles of the distributions of transfer payments income assistance plus the subsidy and total income earnings plus transfers are also different at different points of the distribution in particular positive impacts on the quantiles of the transfer distribution are concentrated at the lower end of the transfer distribution while positive impacts on the quantiles of the income distribution are concentrated in the upper end of the income distribution impacts of ssp on these distributions were essentially zero after the subsidy was no longer available

explaining and forecasting results of the self sufficiency project this paper studies the self sufficiency project ssp a controlled randomized experiment concerning welfare by estimating a model of endogenous skill accumulation multidimensional job opportunities and time varying opportunity costs of labour market time methods for estimating dynamic programming models with unobserved heterogeneity are extended to account for unexpected policy interventions and endogenous sample selection and initial conditions parameters are identified and consistently estimated by imposing optimal responses to the exact form of the ssp earnings supplement and the experimental program which induces exogenous variation between treatment groups and within groups as treatment progresses the estimated model tracks primary outcomes well in and out of sample except for underestimating trends in the sample of new welfare applicants predictions from counterfactual experiments run counter to non structural results reported elsewhere and they suggest that details of the ssp s design are critical for interpretation of results the separate ssp plus treatment may have longer lasting and more generalized impacts than the in sample impacts suggest copyright oxford university press