macroeconomic consequences of the real financial nexus imbalances and spillovers between china and the u s relying on quarterly data since 1998 we estimate for china and the u s small scale econometric models that economize on the number of variables employed and yet are rich enough to provide useful insights about spillover effects between the two countries under different maintained assumptions about the exogeneity of the macroeconomic relationship between them we conclude that inflation in china responds to credit shocks indeed the monetary transmission mechanism in china resembles that of the u s even if the channels through which monetary policy affects their respective economies differ we also find that the monetary policy stance of the pboc was helpful in mitigating the impact of the 2008 9 global financial crisis on china s financial conditions finally spillovers from the u s to china are significant and originate from both the real and financial sectors of the u s economy

an initial investigation into the impact of tourism on local budgets a comparative analysis of spanish municipalities abstract the spanish federation of municipalities has particularly since 2008 been vocal about a chronic deficit situation caused by high public expenditures in tourist areas within this context new strategies to increase revenues have been proposed including the introduction of tourist taxes this paper contributes to this debate by determining if tourism activity actually has a negative impact on local finances in spain to that end a comparative analysis of budget structures between tourism intensive and non tourism intensive municipalities is undertaken using data from more than 3200 local corporations for the years 2001 2010 the determinants of expenditures revenues and deficit per capita are identified using a linear regression the results indicate a direct relationship between tourism intensity and local deficits only in the smallest and largest municipalities while a beneficial effect is actually seen in the remainder of the sample in view of this evidence we recommend revising the existing regulations to allow for municipalities below 20 000 residents to be officially recognized as tourist municipalities so that they can benefit from that status in addition the option of introducing new tourist taxes should be more restricted in scope and depend upon further evidence of possible cost inefficiency in the affected municipalities

change in co2 emission and its transmissions between korea and japan using international input output analysis abstract this paper is intended to analyze co 2 transmission between japan and south korea through international trade based on 1990 and 1995 international input output data it applied a residual free structural decomposition method proposed by chung and rhee chung h s rhee h c 2001 a residual free decomposition of the sources of carbon dioxide emissions a case of the korean industries energy 26 1 15 30 to emission related international input output analysis for the first time in the decomposition studies this paper is a case study regarding the manner and the extent to which co 2 emissions are influenced by international trade between japan an annex i country and south korea a non annex i country which is of particular interest for the carbon leakage issue in this paper we attempted to show which factors contributed to the changes in emission of the major greenhouse gas in south korea and japan the changes in emission are analyzed in terms of emission intensity input techniques demand composition and trade structures according to our analysis south korea a non annex i country has more energy intensive production structures than japan an annex i country south korea s trade pattern with japan reflects these production features resulting in the korea s comparative advantage in emission intensive products though the degree has somewhat mitigated in 1995 compared to 1990

china s balance of emissions embodied in trade approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility international trade is characterized not only by the flow of capital and goods but also by the energy and emissions embodied in goods during their production this paper investigates the evolving role that chinese trade is playing in the response to climate change by estimating the scale of emissions embodied in china s current trade pattern and demonstrating the magnitude of the difference between the emissions it produces some of which are incurred to meet the consumption demands of the rest of the world and the emissions embodied in the goods it consumes estimating china s emissions on a consumption rather than a production basis both lowers its responsibility for carbon dioxide co2 emissions in 2006 from 5 500 to 3 840mtco2 and reduces the growth rate of emissions from an average of 12 5 per cent p a to 8 7 per cent p a between 2001 and 2006 the analysis indicates that a reliable consumption based accounting methodology is feasible and could improve our understanding of which actors and states are responsible for emissions for example recent emissions reductions by developed countries may lack credibility if production has merely been displaced to countries such as china moreover in the current institutional context production methodologies encourage leakages through trade that may do more to displace than to reduce emissions both equity and efficiency concerns therefore suggest that emissions embodied in trade should receive special attention in the distribution of post kyoto abatement burdens

sustainable cities do political factors determine the quality of life abstract the implementation of urban sustainability practices is affected by political obstacles and diverse political ideologies may defend different city models sustainable policy design could also be affected by several factors that cause the deflection of resources initially allocated to other groups that are contrary to the concerns pursued and have the power to veto sustainable plans by exerting pressure on the party in power in this sense the aim of this paper is to show the impact that political factors have on cities sustainability and the effect of both on cities economic development to do so we used the 78 spanish cities with a population over 100 000 studied by merco spanish corporate reputation monitor as regards their levels of sustainability for the fiscal years 2008 and 2009 both relationships have been tested empirically through two dependence models using linear regression techniques the results obtained show that political competition improves cities sustainability while a leftist ideology has an inverse impact on the other hand a significant direct relationship has been observed between urban sustainability and municipal economic activity

do external grants to district governments discourage own revenue generation a look at local public finance dynamics in ghana summary using rich panel data on all of ghana s districts local public finances over 11 years this paper investigates the way that intergovernmental and other transfers to local governments affect local governments incentives to collect internally generated revenues and funds igf we find that despite an incentive scheme built into one of the major intergovernmental grants the flow of all grants taken together discourages rather than encourages igf this is reflected both in the depressing effect of transfers on igf levels as well as on igf growth

co2 embodiment in china australia trade the drivers and implications abstract this study focuses on co 2 emissions embodied in the characteristic china australia bilateral trade which refer to the co 2 emissions due to the production of goods traded between the two countries we perform an assessment of the co 2 embodiment in the trade during the period between 2002 and 2010 we find that the scale effect has been a dominant effect contributing to an increase of co 2 emissions embodied in the bilateral trade through the years while the composition effect seems to be a major driver for reducing co 2 embodiment in the exports of australia to china based on an analysis of the difference between the amounts of actual co 2 embodiment and those in a hypothetical no trade scenario we estimate that the net co 2 emissions due to the bilateral trade declined from around 10 mt of co 2 emissions in 2002 to 10 mt in 2010 that is the bilateral trade contributed to a reduction of the global carbon emissions in the recent years this finding suggests that the rapid growth of exports of carbon intensive goods from australia to china has helped in reducing carbon emissions globally because carbon intensity factors of those goods are much lower in australia than those in china

an analysis of the driving forces of co2 emissions embodied in japan china trade abstract by using the latest china japan input output data sets and the index decomposition analysis ida approach this article analyzes the driving forces of co2 emissions embodied in trade between the two countries during 1990 2000 we found that the growth of trade volume had a large influence on the increase of co2 emissions embodiments in bilateral trade the dramatic decline in carbon intensity of the chinese economy is a primary cause in offsetting co2 emissions exported from china to japan over 1995 2000 we argue that a better understanding of the factors affecting co2 emissions embodied in international trade will assist in seeking more effective climate policies with wider participation in the post kyoto regime

macroeconomic policy transmission and international interdependence a svar application to brazil and us economic policy transmission between trade partners has been analyzed over different contexts in the literature depending on real or nominal frictions the results indicate possible beggar thy neighbor effects for policies given international trade and need for coordinating policies the baseline model is corsetti and pesenti 2001 of macroeconomic interdependence the theoretical proposition suggests that a no anticipated economic policy of exchange rate depreciation creates a beggar thyself effect yet many economies have engaged in this policy to enhance exports and improve welfare here fiscal policy transmissions over brazilian economic aggregates are investigated considering brazil as home and us as foreign country the problem is specified in a structural var vector autoregression model taking granger causality tests and impulse response analysis as econometric applications the results indicate that expansionary fiscal policy in us has a beggar thy neighbor effect for the brazilian economy in the long run the policy transmission mechanism relies on the terms of trade in addition real money balances are affected by foreign fiscal policy affecting the efficiency of domestic monetary policy 2013 national association of postgraduate centers in economics anpec production and hosting by elsevier b v all rights reserved jel classification f41 f42

partisan influence on the local tax burden in the netherlands this paper analyses the role of partisan politics in determiningthe local tax burden property taxes are the most important revenuesource which municipalities in the netherlands can decide uponthemselves using a new data set on dutch local property taxes in1996 it is concluded that municipalities with a council dominatedby left wing parties have a higher tax burden we also find thatlarger coalitions have lower levels of taxation finally taxexporting increases tax rates

analysis of co2 emissions embodied in china s bilateral trade a non competitive import input output approach co2 emissions embodied in international trade are critical to the national carbon mitigation strategy studies estimating embodied co2 emissions in china often overestimate actual values this work calculates china s co2 emissions embodied in bilateral trade with the usa european union japan and other countries using a modified non competitive import input output method and latest data the results show that net co2 emissions embodied in china s trade in 2007 were only 400 million tons much lower than previous estimations accordingly china s co2 emission on the consumption side in 2007 dropped to 5 628 billion tons with the transfer part accounting for 6 6 of total co2 emissions calculated for the production side it is concluded that because co2 emissions embodied in trade are not as great as previously estimated china should place more emphases on energy saving and emission reduction on its own side instead of emission transfer to substantially mitigate co2 emissions

government spending and budget deficits in the industrial economies fiscal policy nouriel roubini and jeffrey sachs this paper examines the evolution of the size of government and of budget deficits in oecd economies we highlight the rapid increase in government spending in the 1970s the sharp rise in budget deficits and public debt after 1973 and the reversal in these trends in the 1980s the increase in the size of government was associated in part with the slowdown in growth after 1973 but also reflected gradual adjustment of the ratio of spending to output towards a long run target which depends on political and institutional characteristics of the economy the political orientation of the government the degree of wage indexation and the degree of stability of the political system such factors also explain the size of budget deficits when faced with an adverse shock subsequent deficit reduction requires a measure of political consensus we note that such consensus is hard to achieve in multi party coalitions in consequence countries with such a political structure tended in consequence countries with such a political structure tended toin consequence countries with such a political structure tended to experience much more rapid increases in their debt gnp ratios

the electoral budget cycle on municipal waste collection expenditure abstractthis article analyses the determinants of municipal waste collection expenditure specifically the effects of electoral cycles on municipal waste collection expenditure we use a database with information on spanish municipalities with more than 1000 inhabitants for the period 2002 2011 our results reveal that incumbents adopt an opportunistic behaviour increasing spending on waste in the preelection year and reducing it in the election and post election years therefore we confirm an electoral budget cycle on waste collection expenditures in spain additionally we find that the levels of income unemployment and upper level governments transfers have a positive impact on waste collection spending finally population density level of urbanization average age of the population of the municipality and less fragmented governments negatively influence waste collection spending

embodied carbon dioxide emission at supra national scale a coalition analysis for g7 bric and the rest of the world abstract presented in this study is an empirical analysis of embodied carbon dioxide emissions induced by fossil fuel combustion for the world divided into three supra national coalitions i e g7 bric and the rest of the world row via the application of a multi region input output modeling for 2004 embodied emission intensities for the three coalitions are calculated and compared with market exchange rate and purchase power parity separately used to investigate the difference between nominal and real production efficiencies emissions embodied in different economic activities such as production consumption import and export are calculated and analyzed accordingly and remarkable carbon trade imbalances associated with g7 surplus of 1 53 billion tons or 36 its traded emissions and bric deficit of 1 37 billion tons or 51 its traded emissions and approximate balance with row deficit of 0 16 billion tons or 3 its traded emissions are concretely revealed carbon leakages associated with industry transfer and international trades are illustrated in terms of impacts on global climate policies the last but not least per capita consumption based emissions for g7 bric and row are determined as 12 95 1 53 and 2 22 tons respectively and flexible abatement policies as well as equity on per capita entitlement are discussed

input output analysis of carbon emissions embodied in china japan trade abstractenergy related co2 emissions embodied in international trade have been widely studied by researchers all over the world by using the bilateral trade input output btio approach this study investigates the co2 emissions embodied in china japan trade during 1995 2009 and attempts to identify the driving forces for the change in co2 emissions embodied in china s exports to japan during that period by using structural decomposition analysis sda result shows that co2 emissions embodied in china s exports increased by about 100 from 1995 to 2009 whereas those embodied in china s imports increased by about 500 during the same period result of this research also reveals that the scale effect had a large influence on the increase in co2 emissions embodied in china japan trade the technical effect greatly decreased co2 emissions embodied in china s exports to japan but obviously increased those embodied in imports the influence of the structural effect was relatively small and insignificant in

is decoupling economic growth from fuel consumption possible in developing countries a comparison of china and india abstract a better understanding the coupling decoupling of economic growth from energy demand in china and india can serve both countries and other developing countries to achieve the goal of gaining higher economic growth with less energy demand to demonstrate the relationship between coupling decoupling economy and energy in china and india better this work has made following contributions i analyzes the decoupling elasticity between economic growth and energy consumption by using the tapio model ii explores the five key effects labor input investment energy structure energy intensity technology level of decoupling elasticity by combining the cobb douglas c d function and log mean divisia index lmdi method and iii evaluates the decoupling efforts by applying decoupling efforts model in china and india between 1990 and 2015 the decoupling elasticity results show china s decoupling elasticity curve is in an inverted u shaped trend and the decoupling elastic value is concentrated between 0 and 0 8 in most years showing a weak decoupling state furthermore the decoupling state is strong decoupling during 2014 2015 indicating china has initially achieved the decoupling of economy and energy consumption while india s decoupling elasticity presents irregular fluctuations indicating that india s decoupling status is not very satisfactory the decomposition results uncover that major effects of decoupling in china and india are similar i e the investment effect is the biggest driver which contributed to a cumulative increasing impact in energy consumption in china and india by 3017 10 million tonnes oil equivalent and 675 18 million tonnes oil equivalent respectively whereas the energy intensity effect is the greatest inhibiting factor which contributed to a cumulative reduction in energy consumption in china and india by 1437 81 million tonnes oil equivalent and 139 21 million tonnes oil equivalent the decoupling efforts results show decoupling effort in china is better than that in india improving energy efficiency is the leading contributor to china s decoupling efforts while advancing technology is the major contributor to india s decoupling effort

oil price stabilization and global welfare abstract oil price stabilization polices are adopted extensively in developing countries some argue that developed economies especially the us may gain from these policies through trade this paper studies this issue in a two country model with dollar currency pricing we find that the optimal level of oil price stabilization chosen by developing countries and its implications for global welfare depend critically on whether monetary policy can effectively respond to oil shocks in an environment without monetary shocks when optimal monetary policies are considered there is no role for oil price stabilization in developing countries however to make the oil price stabilization policy redundant optimal monetary policy is not necessary some non optimal endogenous monetary policies satisfying certain conditions can also make the developing countries choose zero oil price stabilization the results change when there are monetary shocks even with optimal monetary policies the developing countries will choose a positive level of oil price stabilization however due to dollar currency pricing the us actually loses from the stabilization policy our results are well supported by the quantitative analysis in a full fledged dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

openness imperfect exchange rate pass through and monetary policy abstract this paper analyses the implications of imperfect exchange rate pass through for optimal monetary policy in a linearised open economy dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to euro area data imperfect exchange rate pass through is modelled by assuming sticky import price behaviour the degree of domestic and import price stickiness is estimated by reproducing the empirical identified impulse response of a monetary policy and exchange rate shock conditional on the response of output net trade and the exchange rate it is shown that a central bank that wants to minimise the resource costs of staggered price setting will aim at minimising a weighted average of domestic and import price inflation

new directions for stochastic open economy models the paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based on sticky nominal wages explicit solution of the wage setting problem under uncertainty allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare expected output and the expected terms of trade despite the potential interplay between imperfections due to sticky wages and monopoly the optimal monetary policy rule has a closed form solution to motivate our model we show that observed correlations between terms of trade and exchange rates are more consistent with our traditional assumptions about nominal rigidities than with a popular alternative based on local currency pricing 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

rainfall shocks local revenues and intergovernmental transfer in mali summary this paper explores the implications of rainfall shocks for municipal tax revenues and intergovernmental transfers in mali i found that exogenous phenomena such as weather not under the control of local actors could affect the way de facto decentralization plays out by influencing the fiscal capacity of local governments in a panel data of 692 municipalities from 2000 to 2008 i found that rainfall shocks through the fluctuations they induce in agricultural incomes affect revenue collection of local governments and in turn drive further revenues local governments receive through transfer by the central government

optimal monetary policy with international trade in intermediate inputs abstract this paper examines optimal monetary policy in a two country new keynesian model with international trade in intermediate inputs we derive the loss function of a cooperative monetary policymaker and find that the optimal monetary policy must target intermediate goods price inflation rates final goods price inflation rates final goods output gaps and relative price gaps we use the welfare loss under the optimal monetary policy as a benchmark to evaluate the welfare implications of three taylor type monetary policy rules a main finding is that the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is a key factor to determine which policy rule should be followed specifically when the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is high the policymaker should follow intermediate goods ppi based taylor rule whereas cpi based taylor rule should be followed when the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate goods production is intermediate or low

optimal financial market integration and security design 1 we study 2 period pure exchange capital asset pricing model capm economies with incomplete financial markets and restricted participation we characterize the optimal financial market structure and efficient innovations consisting of both the introduction of new assets and the integration of segmented markets welfare gains from innovations are maximal when the endowments of affected agents are negatively correlated uncoordinated innovations lead to efficient market structures if all assets have identical participation structure or the markets being integrated trade identical assets however coordination failure in the introduction of new assets may result when assets have participation structures that overlap only partially

comparing structural decomposition analysis and index to analyze and understand historical changes in economic environmental employment or other socio economic indicators it is useful to assess the driving forces or determinants that underlie these changes two techniques for decomposing indicator changes at the sector level are structural decomposition analysis sda and index decomposition analysis ida for example sda and ida have been used to analyze changes in indicators such as energy use co2 emissions labor demand and value added the changes in these variables are decomposed into determinants such as technological demand and structural effects sda uses information from input output tables while ida uses aggregate data at the sector level the two methods have developed quite independently which has resulted in each method being characterized by specific unique techniques and approaches this paper has three aims first the similarities and differences between the two approaches are summarized second the possibility of transferring specific techniques and indices is explored finally a numerical example is used to illustrate differences between the two approaches

worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules we study the interaction of multiple large economies in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium each economy has a monetary policymaker that attempts to control the economy through the use of a linear nominal interest rate feedback rule we show how the determinacy of worldwide equilibrium depends on the joint behavior of policymakers worldwide we also show how indeterminacy exposes all economies to endogenous volatility even ones where monetary policy may be judged appropriate from a closed economy perspective we construct and discuss two quantitative cases in the 1970s worldwide equilibrium was characterized by a two dimensional indeterminacy despite u s adherence to a version of the taylor principle in the last 15 years worldwide equilibrium was still characterized by a one dimensional indeterminacy leaving all economies exposed to endogenous volatility our analysis provides a rationale for a type of international policy coordination and the gains to coordination in the sense of avoiding indeterminacy may be large

global implications of self oriented national monetary rules author s obstfeld maurice rogoff kenneth abstract it is well known that if international linkages are relatively small the potential gains to international monetary policy coordination are typically quite limited but what if goods and financial markets are tightly linked is it then problematic if countries unilaterally design their institutions for monetary stabilization are the stabilization gains from having separate currencies largely squandered in the absence of effective international monetary coordination we argue that under plausible assumptions the answer is no unless risk aversion is very high lack of coordination in rule setting is a second order problem compared to the overall gains from monetary policy stabilization

fiscal illusion at the local level empirical evidence for the flemish municipalities fiscal illusion refers to a systematically biased perception of fiscal parameters due to demand side error ignorance or supply side abusive behaviour as such it is a component of a more general tax choice framework

changes of co2 emissions embodied in china japan trade drivers and implications co2 emission embodied in trade is an important aspect to respond international carbon mitigation half of china s emission increase was due to production of exports in order to analyze the reason of such a rapid emission increase embodied co2 emission flows between china and japan for the period of 2000 2009 were estimated in this study by using emission embodied in bilateral trade eebt approach in order to raise policy implications for both countries from trade perspective decomposition analysis was further conducted in order to identify driving forces underlying changes during the study period moreover the concept of dependence on traded co2 was proposed for analyzing mutual dependence of china and japan s carbon emission and economy the results show that china was a net exporter of embodied co2 emissions between china and japan trade but both china s exported emissions and net emission transfer to japan began to decrease after 2007 more emissions were embodied in more advanced and less carbon intensive products especially for china s exports driving force analysis shows that trade volume was the main driver for the increase of embodied emissions and technology effect contributed mainly to the decrease the absolute value of technology effect was even larger than activity effect in some years this study also reveals that japan was relatively more dependent on china s co2 emissions and showed an increasing trend over the last decade while china s economic development was more dependent on imports from japan and such a situation reversed after 2006 this study suggests that china should further reduce its emission intensity for narrowing the gap of embodied emissions between the bilateral trade flows and japanese energy saving technologies should be transferred to china

on the benefits of a monetary union does it pay to be bigger this paper revisits the question of the appropriate domain of a currency area using a new keynesian open economy model in which the world is split into two areas each framed as a continuum of small open regions we show that the adoption of a common currency like the euro can be beneficial for the members of the monetary union since the spill over effects generated by the inflationary policies of the small open economies are likely to outweigh the costs of not tailoring monetary policy to country specific shocks we also show that while the enlargement of the monetary union to another group of small open economies can bring about welfare gains for all countries involved monetary integration of two large economies such as the euro area and the u s will not these findings can help to rationalize the process of the creation and enlargement of multi country currency areas like the eurozone

political determinants of budget deficits coalition effects versus minority effects this paper reexamines some recent empirical evidence on the hypothesis that institutional arrangements in the political process affect budget deficits the results of roubini and sachs 1989b are replicated and sensitivity analysis indicate that their results are robust however the main conclusion of roubini and sachs that coalition governments are less capable of budgetary discipline needs to be modified a reformulation of their variable representing political cohesion reveals that it captures the effects of minority governments rather than majority coalition governments the data support the hypothesis that it is harder to negotiate in parliament than within a government

determinants of net carbon emissions embodied in sino german trade abstract the existing research on carbon emissions embodied in trade has been concentrated between net importing countries and net exporting countries few study has been conducted to analyze carbon emissions embodied in trade between net exporting countries to fill the research gap this work systematically investigated the net carbon emissions embodied in trade between the largest net exporter of developing countries china and the largest net exporter of developed countries german based on the non competitive input output analysis and the structural decomposition analysis was used to study the driving factors effecting the change of net embodied carbon emissions in sino german trade the results show the net carbon emissions embodied in sino german trade increased significantly with the sharp increase of net trade volume after china s accession to the world trade organization carbon transfer through trade was mainly concentrated in the carbon intensive industrial sectors in sino german trade this phenomenon was attributed to the differences in the trade structure and the production efficiency between china and germany the decomposition analysis shows china s intermediate input structure effect and the country structure effect of germany s final demand were the leading contributors to growth in net carbon emission in sino german trade which mainly was offset by china s carbon intensity effect finally some policy implications are offered

german s oil footprint an input output and structural decomposition analysis abstract it is generally thought that the country with net exports in goods is also a net exporter of energy embodied in goods in this work we report a paradox phenomenon which shows that germany was a net goods exporter but also a net importer of embodied oil based on the multi region input output model and structural decomposition analysis this paper comprehensively analyzed the changing trend and main driving factors of oil footprints in german trade the results showed that germany s embodied oil exports increased by 35 06 with the expansion of trade scale and germany s net imports of embodied oil fell by 45 49 during the study period although the focus of embodied oil transfer in trade was eu countries the embodied oil trade volume between germany and developing countries especially china grew rapidly from sectoral level heavy manufacturing and transport industry dominated more than 70 of the germany s embodied oil trade the decomposition analysis showed that the scale effect of final demand was the main factor that contributed to the growth of oil footprints in germany s international trade which offset the inhibition of oil consumption intensity the effect of production structure played an important role in the embodied oil trade and the low oil intensive industrial structure was the main reason why germany was a net importer of embodied oil

measuring structural change and energy use decomposition of the us economy from 1997 to 2002 abstract the steadily increasing focus on energy production and consumption has led to growing research attention to patterns of energy use within economies of particular interest has been comparing the driving forces of increasing efficiency and economic structural change input output analysis ioa and decomposition analysis have become critical tools for performing such analyses this study analyzes aggregate energy use in the united states in 1997 and 2002 to discover the causes of changing energy usage and flows results show that rising population and household consumption acted to drive up energy demand but this driving force was offset by considerable structural change within the economy particularly related to a quickly increasing trade deficit in manufacturing goods thus while total energy intensity the ratio of energy use to economic output declined by approximately 12 between 1997 and 2002 changes in the structure of the economy explain this drop more than increased energy efficiency the level of aggregation at which decomposition analyses are run was identified as a crucially sensitive parameter for the determination of structural change and future studies should specifically address the amount of detail necessary to adequately measure changes in economic structure

welfare and macroeconomic interdependence we develop a baseline model of monetary and fiscal transmission in interdependent economies the welfare effects of expansionary policies are related to monopolistic supply in production and monopoly power of a country in trade an unanticipated exchange rate depreciation can be beggar thyself rather than beggar thy neighbor as gains in domestic output are offset by deteriorating terms of trade smaller and more open economies are more prone to suffer from inflationary shocks larger economies benefit from moderate demand led expansions but may be worse off if policy makers attempt to close the output gap fiscal shocks are generally beggar thy neighbor in the long run in the short run they raise domestic demand at given terms of trade thus reducing the welfare benefits from monetary expansions analytical tractability makes our model uniquely suitable as a starting point to approach the recent new open economy macroeconomic literature

the weak government thesis some new evidence this paper presents new evidence on the hypothesis that coalition governments will find it more difficult to keep their budgets in line after an adverse economic shock than do one party majoritarian governments the estimates are based on a broad sample of oecd countries for the period 1979 1995 using various specifications as suggested in the literature we do not find evidence that the type of government affects cross country variation in fiscal policy however the number of political parties in government affects central government debt growth

what has driven chinese monetary policy since 1990 investigating the people s bank s policy rule abstract post 1990 chinese monetary policy is modeled with an augmented mccallum type rule that takes into account the people s bank of china s emphasis on targeting the rate of money supply growth people s bank policy appears responsive to the gap between target and actual nominal gdp as well as to external pressures additional cointegration analysis yields estimates of the gap between estimated money demand and actual money supply that appear to track the inflationary trends evident over our sample period chinese inflation and monetary policy outcomes seem reasonably captured using a standard monetary approach without the need to appeal to china specific structural factors

optimal monetary policy cooperation through state independent contracts with targets abstract simple state independent monetary institutions are shown to secure optimal cooperative policies in a stochastic linear quadratic two country world with international policy spill overs and national credibility problems institutions characterize delegation to independent central bankers facing quadratic performance related contracts punishing or rewarding deviations from primary and intermediate policy targets

the effect of trade between china and the uk on national and global carbon dioxide emissions we estimate the amount of carbon dioxide embodied in bi lateral trade between the uk and china in 2004 developing and applying the method of shui and harriss 2006 tile role of co2 embodiment in us china trade energy policy 34 4063 4068 the most recently available data on trade and co2 emissions have been updated and adjusted to calculate the co2 emissions embodied in the commodities traded between china and the uk it was found that through trade with china the uk reduced its co2 emissions by approximately 11 in 2004 compared with a non trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the uk in addition due to the greater carbon intensity and relatively less efficient production processes of chinese industry china uk trade resulted in an additional 117 mt of co2 to global co2 emissions in the same one year period compared with a non trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the uk this represents an additional 19 to the reported national co2 emissions of the uk 555 mt y in 2004 and 0 4 of global emissions these findings suggest that through international trade very significant environmental impacts can be shifted front one country to another and that international trade can but does not necessarily result in globally increased greenhouse gas emissions these results are additional to the environmental consequences of transporting goods which are not robustly quantified here c 2008 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

renter illusion fact or fiction the renter illusion hypothesis holds that renters underestimate their property tax burden and therefore support excessive levels of local expenditure a number of studies have reached results that are consistent with the hypothesis but so far empirical investigations have proceeded from the assumption that renter illusion is a fact and have investigated the implications of this fact no one has investigated renter illusion as such in other areas of fiscal illusion survey analyses of voter perceptions have yielded considerable insight into the validity of illusionary hypotheses this paper follows this method and investigates a representative sample of 1000 danish renters and home owners perception of the local property tax system the evidence raises doubts about the renter illusion hypothesis the survey findings are corroborated by an analysis of property taxation in danish municipalities

decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions growth in the united states the role of research and development abstract the united states has achieved economic growth compatible with carbon reduction since 2007 this work is addressed to understand the eight effects especially effects related to research development rd whereas economic scale was the primary inhibitor to the drop of carbon emission followed by investment intensity population size and sectoral energy structure the results of decoupling efforts analysis uncover that energy intensity r d intensity r d efficiency and sectoral carbon intensity contributed to decoupling economic growth from carbon emission whereas investment intensity population size and sectoral energy structure did not contribute to the decoupling finally some policy implications are proposed

strategic monetary policy in interdependent economies gains from coordination reconsidered abstract there is a wide acceptance that gains to international monetary policy coordination are small at best and that the need of policy coordination is questionable this conclusion however follows from the underlying presumption that monetary policy is concerned with the stabilization of macroeconomic fluctuations only this paper presents a general short run monetary policy analysis within a familiar two country new open economy macroeconomics noem framework where national monetary policy involves the choice of a deterministic growth trend of money supply average inflation rate and stochastic state dependent deviations of actual money supply from the deterministic trend stabilization strategic beggar thy neighbor considerations induce the deviation of both policy choices from their socially optimal values the gains from international coordination of the average inflation rate are of first order and hence larger than the gains from the coordination of the stabilization policies which are of second order

endogenous elections electoral budget cycles and canadian provincial governments the existence of manipulative electoral budget cycles and opportunistic election setting is examined in the framework of a parliamentary democracy empirical tests are conducted using a pooled time series cross section data set derived from canadian provincial governments over the 1962 1992 period evidence in support of the electoral budget cycle hypothesis but not the opportunistic election timing hypothesis is obtained

partisan politics and public finance changes in public spending in the industrialized democracies 1955 1989 this paper evaluates the role that partisan politics plays in altering public spending levels the analysis covers over three decades of data on the developments of the public sectors in 16 oecd countries the results of the analysis lend firm support to the partisan politics model of special note is the distinction between the electorate and the government ideological preferences and the dominant role that the former plays the results also suggest contrary to conventional wisdom that partisan political influences have not been eliminated with the tightening of linkages to the international economy

incomplete pass through and the welfare effects of exchange rate variability abstract this paper considers the implications of incomplete exchange rate pass through for optimal monetary and exchange rate policy a two country model is presented which allows an explicit derivation of welfare functions in terms of a weighted sum of the second moments of producer prices and the nominal exchange rate from a single country perspective the optimal exchange rate variance depends on the degree of pass through the size and openness of the economy the elasticity of labour supply and the volatility of foreign producer prices welfare may be decreasing or increasing in the volatility of the exchange rate

co2 emissions embodied in china us trade input output analysis based on the emergy dollar ratio to gain insight into changes in co2 emissions embodied in china us trade an input output analysis based on the emergy dollar ratio edr is used to estimate embodied co2 emissions a structural decomposition analysis sda is employed to analyze the driving factors for changes in co2 emissions embodied in china s exports to the us during 2002 2007 the results of the input output analysis show that net export of co2 emissions increased quickly from 2002 to 2005 but decreased from 2005 to 2007 these trends are due to a reduction in total co2 emission intensity a decrease in the exchange rate and small imports of embodied co2 emissions the results of the sda demonstrate that total export volume was the largest driving factor for the increase in embodied co2 emissions during 2002 2007 followed by intermediate input structure direct co2 emissions intensity had a negative effect on changes in embodied co2 emissions the results suggest that china should establish a framework for allocating emission responsibilities enhance energy efficiency and improve intermediate input structure

the role of co2 embodiment in us china trade abstract this study examines the influence of us china trade on national and global emissions of carbon dioxide co2 the three basic questions are as follows 1 what amount of co2 emissions is avoided in the us by importing chinese goods 2 how much are co2 emissions in china increased as a result of the production of goods for export to the us and 3 what are the impacts of us china trade on global co2 emissions our initial findings reveal that during 1997 2003 1 us co2 emissions would have increased from 3 to 6 if the goods imported from china had been produced in the us 2 about 7 14 of china s current co2 emissions were a result of producing exports for us consumers and 3 us china trade has increased global co2 emissions by an estimated 720 million metric tons we suggest that the export of us technologies and expertise related to clean production and energy efficiency to china could be a win win strategy for both countries for reducing their trade imbalance and mitigating global co2 emissions improved international accounting methodologies for assigning responsibility for co2 emissions must be designed to account for the dynamic nature of international trade

the effects of energy prices urbanization and economic growth on energy consumption per capita in 186 countries abstract energy is the material basis for the development of national economy however energy shortages become increasingly serious as a result of the growing population and the modernization of the global economy therefore investigating drivers of energy consumption is crucial to coordinate the relationship between energy and national economic growth this study aimed to uncover the effects of energy prices ep urbanization urn and gdp on per capita energy consumption ec with considering the income gaps between countries the paper adopted the granger causality test approach and the impulse response function analysis by using long term time series data on ec ep urn and gdp during 1980 2015 in 186 countries divided into three groups high income upper and lower middle income groups the results indicated a long term co integration relationship among these variables granger causality test showed a bidirectional causality between urn and ec in high and lower middle income countries but no causality in the upper middle income group in all groups there is a bidirectional causal link between gdp and ec the results of irf showed that as urbanization level improves its role in promoting ec become less significant moreover ep affected ec negatively both in high and lower middle income countries but it has a positive impact on ec in upper middle income countries the study supports the finding that urbanization is an important factor affecting energy consumption per capita although its contributions vary across income groups which offers a new pathway to control the excessive growth of energy consumption

economic and political determinants of fee income in norwegian local governments this paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of fee income in norweigan local governments the point of departure is a representative voter model emphasizing the effects of pure economic variables the benchmark model is extended by including two aspects of the political system ideology and strength it is evident that increased socialist influence increases the size of the local public sector while a strong political leadership has an advantage in opposing pressure to increase spending

imbalance of carbon emissions embodied in the us japan trade temporal change and driving factors abstract in us japan trade japan ran both economic export surplus and export co2 emission surplus with the us positive net monetary exports for japan were actually a kind of economic losses of the us while positive net export co2 emissions or net co2 emissions embodied in us japan trade were regarded as pollution transfer from u s to japan however due to lack of unified measurement units and standards between the two research fields it is difficult to directly assess whether positive effects of u s via carbon transfer outweigh negative effects caused by economic losses the study transforms absolute values of net monetary exports and net export co2 emissions from 2000 to 2011 in us japan trade into two ratios the ratio of net monetary exports to gdp of u s and the ratio of net embodied co2 emissions to total co2 emissions of the us by comparison the result shows that on average net monetary exports between u s and japan accounted for 0 45 of american gdp while ratio of net export emissions to aggregate consumption based co2 emissions of u s kept about 0 20 during the research period concerned which indicated that negative effects of economic losses in u s outweighed positive effects via carbon transfer in us japan trade furthermore a structural analysis of co2 emissions embodied in us japan trade during the 11 years is given the most significant driver was emission coefficients defined as co2 emissions per unit of energy consumption the driving force of emission coefficients led to dramatic reduction in co2 flows from japan to the us and thus caused decrease of net export emissions which also explained the major reason for the low ratio of export emissions to total co2 emissions of the us finally according to sectoral distributions of co2 flows between japan and the us emission sources of two countries presented different characteristics