interpreting economic time series this paper explores some of the implications for econometric practice of the principle that people s observed behavior will change when their constraints change in dynamic contexts a proper definition of people s constraints includes among them laws of motion that describe the evolution of the taxes they must pay and the prices of the goods that they buy and sell changes in agents perceptions of these laws of motion or constraints will in general produce changes in the schedules that describe the choices they make as a function of the information that they possess until very recently received dynamic econometric practice ignored this principle the practice of dynamic econometrics should be changed so that it is consistent with the principle that people s rules of choice are influenced by their constraints this is a substantial undertaking and involves major adjustments in the ways that we formulate estimate and simulate econometric models

marketing mix and brand sales in global markets examining the contingent role of country market characteristics marketing products globally is challenging due to the diverse nature of markets we use market heterogeneity unbranded competition resource and infrastructure availability and sociopolitical governance as country market characteristics that distinguish between developed and emerging countries we investigate their moderating role on the relationship between elements of the marketing mix and brand sales we provide evidence from a hierarchical linear model and a panel data set of brands from 14 emerging and developed markets that account for 62 of the global gdp that country market characteristics moderate the relationship between the complete set of marketing mix elements and brand sales performance asymmetrically while distribution and price have the largest impact in emerging and developed countries respectively product innovation and advertising have significantly larger impacts in emerging markets relative to developed countries these finding highlights the importance of contingency view of marketing strategy in global markets

inventories rational expectations and the business cycle abstract the simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational preclude the existence of business cycles that is of serially correlated deviations of output from trend this paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these so called new classical models produce business cycles the mechanism is the gradual adjustment of inventory stocks two macroeconomic models of inventory holdings are formulated both imply first that current output should be a decreasing function of the stock of inventories and second that inventories once perturbed from equilibrium levels should adjust only gradually these two features are then embedded into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational two principal conclusions are reached first disturbances such as unanticipated changes in money will set in motion serially correlated deviations of output from trend second if desired inventories are sensitive to the real interest rate then even fully anticipated changes in money can affect real variables

foreign direct investment and domestic investment in the host country evidence from panel study this article examines the impact of inward foreign direct investment fdi on host countries domestic investment utilizing data from 50 countries over the period of 1970 to 2004 we find that inward fdi has a negative contemporaneous effect on domestic investment while the cumulative effect of fdi over time tends to be positive in addition we separately study fdi in developed countries dcs and less developed countries ldcs the effect of contemporaneous fdi on domestic investment is negative in dcs and the cumulative effect of fdi is neutral strong evidence suggests that the contemporaneous effect of fdi on domestic investment is neutral in ldcs while the cumulative effect of fdi is positive

on the differential behaviour of national and multinational firms a within and across sectors approach this paper looks for different patterns of behaviour of national firms and multinational enterprises mnes its main contribution is the use of a computable general equilibrium perspective to analyse firms performance the model is calibrated for the case of the czech republic which has been a very attractive foreign direct investment location in the last three decades we replicate the arrival of mnes to different sectors of this country in turn and analyse the responses of both types of firms across the 20 different sectors in which the czech economy has been split our results grasp the short run impact the higher labour intensity of national firms leads them to different patterns of production and labour demand compared with mnes operating within the same sector the demand side of the model particularly exports and private consumption drives the evolution of production and labour demand across sectors regarding prices we also find a differential pattern between both types of firms within and across sectors our analysis offers detailed evidence on how the impact of mnes will differ depending on the sector to which they arrive finally the aggregate results suggest that a completely different microeconomic panorama may underlie rather similar macroeconomic outcomes

foreign direct investment competition and industrial development in the host country this paper analyses the impact of foreign direct investment fdi on the development of local firms we focus on two likely effects of fdi a competition effect which deters entry of domestic firms and positive market externalities which foster the development of local industry using a simple theoretical model to illustrate how these forces work we show that the number of domestic firms follows a u shaped curve where the competition effect first dominates but is gradually outweighed by positive externalities evidence for ireland tends to support this result specifically applying semi parametric regression techniques on plant level panel data for the manufacturing sector we find that while the competition effect may have initially deterred local firms entry this initial effect has been outpaced by positive externalities making the overall impact of fdi largely positive for the domestic industry

international taxation and multinational firm location decisions using a large international firm level data set we examine the separate effects of host and additional parent country taxation on the location decisions of multinational firms both types of taxation are estimated to have a negative impact on the location of new foreign subsidiaries the impact of parent country taxation is estimated to be sizeable consistent with its international discriminatory nature our results show that international double taxation by the parent country despite the general possibility of deferral of taxation until income repatriation is instrumental in shaping the structure of multinational enterprise

the boundaries of multinational enterprises and the theory of international trade this paper begins with a review of empirical evidence on multinational firms conceptual underpinnings of a theory are developed relying in particular on the notion of knowledge capital as a mobile joint input into geographically separated production facilities this idea is embedded in a simple two country general equilibrium model that supports multinational production in equilibrium under conditions consistent with the empirical evidence the final section examines internalization and shows why certain properties of knowledge capital also imply a preference for transferring technologies internally within the firm rather than through arm s length markets

a rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment abstract a critical roadblock to modeling inventories of finished goods has been the claim that the production and inventory decisions of a perfectly competitive firm are determined independently of each other a basic goal of this study is to specify fundamental preferences of economic agents technologies constraints and market structures that are in a rough way capable of generating patterns of serial correlations and cross correlations between inventories and employment of factors of production that are consistent with those observed in the data the claim is made that the time series for inventories output and employment can in principle be interpreted as emerging from a well specified dynamic stochastic competitive equilibrium in which economic agents are assumed to form rational expectations about variables not included in their information sets inventories and employment will not be related in a direct way if and only if the price elasticity of demand for output is equal to infinity

getting help from abroad the macroeconomics of foreign direct investment in infrastructure in low income countries infrastructure financing needs in most low income countries are substantial but funding for such needs is only partly covered by national governments and aid donors this paper introduces foreign direct investment fdi through public private partnerships as a source of infrastructure financing in low income countries a two sector open economy model is developed to assess the macroeconomic performance of fdi in infrastructure with efficient foreign investment an increase in revenue generating infrastructure investment boosts productivity and spurs private investment while stabilizing domestic prices a direct comparison between infrastructure financed by domestic versus foreign investment shows that foreign investment creates higher output growth and welfare gains and is preferable to domestically sourced investment irrespective of the underlying financing instrument the domestic economy is employing fdi in non revenue generating infrastructure is also analyzed and discussed

dynamics of pro market institutions and firm performance we analyze how pro market institutions affect firm performance in emerging markets integrating transaction costs and signaling theory we advance three arguments first we separate four dynamic components of pro market institutions intensifying and fading pro market reforms and intensifying and fading pro market reversals second we propose an asymmetric dynamic view whereby not only intensifying reforms but also fading reversals improve firm performance while not only fading reforms but also intensifying reversals reduce performance finally we argue that more efficient firms perform better under each of the dynamics we test these arguments on a sample of 1092 firms from 34 emerging markets during 1998 2011

wage and competition channels of foreign direct investment and new firm entry using a rich data set of the dutch manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2010 we investigate the effect of foreign direct investment fdi on domestic new firm entry the emerging empirical literature has focused on the direct relationship between fdi and entry but has not explored the mechanisms behind the observed effect drawing on a simultaneous equations model our analysis features both the direct effect of fdi as well as indirect effects through two channels industry competition and wages we estimate the parameters through 3sls and take into account the endogeneity of competition and wages with respect to entry our results show that there is a significant negative direct effect of fdi on entry at the same time fdi decreases competition and increases wage levels which then impact entry positively and negatively respectively the total effect of fdi is negative but small and virtually disappears after one year policy implications are discussed

multinational corporations economic and human rights impacts on developing countries a review and research agenda developing countries are attracting a significant portion of global foreign direct investments governments of such countries often compete fiercely for attracting multinational corporations mncs in the expectation of the advantages they will bring to their economies often prioritising economic goals over fundamental human rights for a long time economists have analysed the economic impacts of mncs while a parallel strand of work in political science business ethics and international law investigates the repercussions of mnc operations on human rights despite the significant relatedness and complementarities these two bodies of literature have so far poorly interacted this paper addresses this limitation and systematically analyses and integrates existing micro level empirical evidence on the economic and human rights impacts of mncs on developing countries it provides a critical analysis of what is known and highlights what we do not know about the factors that mediate the positive and or negative impacts of mnc operations on host developing countries based on a critical analysis of the literature it discusses avenues for future research in this field and sets the grounds for a new interdisciplinary research agenda on this subject

rational expectations and the smoothing properties of inventories of finished goods abstract this paper formulates and estimates a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment of labor the view that the primary role of inventories of finished goods is to act as a buffer stock in the face of fluctuating demand is examined both the model and estimation results indicate that this is the case because of differences in the costs involved for firms in changing their inventory stocks and labor force in addition to providing some new evidence on the behavior of inventories of finished goods and employment the paper illustrates a technology for maximum likelihood estimation of structural parameters under the hypothesis of rational expectations

inventories and sticky prices note in a recent contribution to this review alan blinder provides an interesting analysis of the relationship between optimal inventory decisions and the process of price adjustment arguing that inventory permits separation of production and sale decisions and allows the firm greater flexibility in responding to anticipated demand disturbances blinder shows that the responsiveness of relative prices depends critically upon the cost of storage and the temporal structure of the demand shocks few economists would fault the intuitive substance of blinder s basic proposition and the proposition is justified with characteristic precision the analysis however is considerably less general than blinder maintains the formal argument of his paper relies upon a simple model of a monopolist capable of backlogging orders and storing unsold goods as the model is constructed order backlogs assume a role of fundamental importance in any stationary equilibrium this feature of the model vitiates blinder s extension of his result to situations in which order backlogs are prohibited the basic monopoly model developed in sections i and ii of blinder s paper places no restriction upon the sign of inventory negative inventory is interpreted as net unfilled orders while no distinction is drawn between reductions in gross inventory and additions to the order backlog as a result the cost of holding inventory is symmetric around an arbitrary minimum point the only role of inventory is to permit the time paths of production and sales to differ gross inventory allows production to antedate sales while order backlogs generate revenue before production costs are borne under these circumstances if future costs and revenues are discounted it is natural to expect any stationary equilibrium level of net inventory to be negative this can be shown to be true of blinder s model it is useful to distinguish in general between the nonstochastic stationary level of inventory n and the stochastic stationary level n the former is realized when the current expected demand disturbance eo is zero and production equals sales the latter which differs from customary usage represents the level of inventory expected to prevail when adjustment to the current nonzero expected demand disturbance is complete if the demand disturbance is not a random walk so that p 1 in blinder s 5 the two equilibria coincide relatively little attention is devoted to either stationary solution because blinder s main interest is in the optimal current solution level n1 the stochastic stationary level is crucially important however since it represents the goal toward which the current choice must provide an optimal first step to verify that both nand n are negative whenever production is strictly positive note that blinder s necessary condition 7 with the coefficient cl set equal to zero together with the definition of xa as the deviation of the shadow value of inventory q from its nonstochastic stationary value q implies

price cost margins and economic integration how important is the pro competitive effect in this paper we examine whether the conventional result of a greater degree of integration leading to lower price cost margins i e the pro competitive effect would hold when two countries integrate by forming a common market we propose a general framework of reference in order to assess the extent of the pro competitive effect when the role of other variables is allowed for both for a small and large common market by solving the model the price cost margin of domestic firms would depend on a set of variables in addition to trade costs with the partner country which might eventually offset the conventional result jel classification f15 f12

small firm entry in us manufacturing a cross section empirical analysis examining the entry behavior of small firms is provided in this paper while the authors find that certain traditional market structure characteristics and entry barriers have a strong impact on small firm entry behavior the reliance upon innovative strategy by small firms also explains a significant amount of the variation in the pattern of entry by small firms they conclude that small firm entry is at least partially determined by entry barriers industry specific characteristics facilitating retaliatory conduct by incumbent firms and the reliance upon innovative strategy by small firms copyright 1989 by the london school of economics and political science

foreign direct investment inflows and the industrialization of african countries summary this paper examines the relationship between inward foreign direct investment fdi and the industrialization process in africa it uses panel data from 49 countries over the period of 1980 2009 the results indicate that fdi did not have a significant impact on the industrialization of these countries while other variables such as the size of the market the financial sector and international trade were important this study concludes that the role of fdi in the transformation agenda which is currently being discussed in africa should be carefully analyzed to maximize the impact of these capital inflows

in defense of lawyers moral hazard as an aid to cooperation abstract this paper studies strategic delegation in two player contests for an indivisible prize as in e g litigation where one party s probability of winning is determined by the relative investments of both even though neither player stands to gain anything from precommitment both players ex ante prefer compulsory representation by agents e g lawyers whose efforts are unobservable this delegation equilibrium is unaffected by secret renegotiation opportunities equivalently it does not matter whether contracts are observable or not hence the paper points out a role for delegation with moral hazard in facilitating cooperation an effect quite separate from precommitment journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d72 d82 k41

inventories and sticky prices more on the microfoundations of macroeconomics the role of inventories in making prices sticky is studied by analyzing a dynamic linear quadratic model of a monopoly firm facing stochastic demand but able to store its finished goods in inventory it is shown that in contrast to the usual presumption firms that exhibit the smallest output responses to demand fluctuations may also exhibit the smallest price fluctuations specifically firms which have very flexible inventory storage facilities or are subjected to very transitory demand shocks will rely on inventories as buffers and will change neither production nor price very much on the other hand firms which have very inflexible storage facilities or whose demand shocks are quite permanent will display large swings in both price and output the standard assumption about inventory carrying costs that has been used in the literature that they are linear is shown to imply that production is impervious to fluctuations in demand it is also established that prices may respond more strongly to positive demand shocks than to negative ones if it is impossible to hold negative inventories i e to have unfilled orders the model offers an explanation for stickiness in relative prices however under certain circumstances it may help explain the persistence of inflation this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

innovation procurement as capability building evaluating innovation policies in eight central and eastern european countries abstract after decades of impressive growth the new member states of the european union are once again in transition but this time from imitation to innovation driven competitiveness this paper evaluates the relationship between both public funding and public procurement for innovation ppi and firm level innovation output and outcome additionality in eight central and eastern european countries matching estimates on a sample of 41 623 firms suggest that ppi has a large effect on innovation and output and the highest additionality is sometimes achieved when firms receive both financial support and innovation oriented public procurement we argue that policy makers aiming to strengthen indigenous innovation capabilities should place stronger emphasis on ppi

multinational companies technology spillovers and plant survival how does the presence of multinational companies affect plant survival in the host country we postulate that multinational companies can impact positively on plant survival through technology spillovers we examine the nature of the effect of multinationals using a cox proportional hazard model which we estimate using plant level data for irish manufacturing industries our results show that the presence of multinationals has a life enhancing effect only on indigenous plants in high tech industries suggesting the presence of technology spillovers in contrast multinationals compete with each other in low tech sectors in the host country