a new theoretical analysis of deindustrialisation the analysis of deindustrialisation has been led by heterodox economists especially those in the structuralist and kaldorian traditions based on a conception of sectoral specificity and the role of manufacturing in growth sectors are not the units of marxian economic analysis but thinking through the meaning of sectors in marxian terms allows for an analysis of the meaning and implications of a change in sectoral structure deindustrialisation is the sectoral shift that has been most prominent in recent decades and which is likely to have significant implications for the future of capitalism this article develops an original marxian theorisation of deindustrialisation this conceptualisation includes a distinction between two forms of deindustrialisation as well as taking into account changes in sectoral structure the proposed typology considers whether such changes are associated with a shift between those activities that produce surplus value and those that do not or only a shift in the composition of surplus value producing activities the distinction between different forms of deindustrialisation allows for an arguably richer analysis of this phenomenon than in more narrowly sector based approaches

decarbonizing residential building energy a cost effective approach abstract given the problem of climate change the world economy must eventually switch to carbon neutral energy in this study we present a cost effectiveness approach given a goal of decarbonization the objective is to accomplish this at minimum cost for residential building energy we show that total cost is minimized by equating marginal cost of building energy conserved with marginal cost of obtaining carbon free energy where we express costs of both in dollars per kwh we describe how the cost of solar photovoltaic energy provides an upper bound on the marginal cost of carbon free energy and thus an upper bound on marginal cost of conserved energy one should not necessarily spend more on energy conservation than the cost of photovoltaic energy though there are several caveats a case study from vermont usa illustrates these principles and implementation issues with marginal analysis of energy conservation from a policy perspective the principles presented suggest that either carbon taxes or carbon limits could be used to decarbonize building energy at minimum cost but that approaches using renewable energy subsidies or prescriptive building codes result in greater decarbonization costs to society this suggests that new policy approaches be adopted

blessing or curse impacts of the brazilian pre salt oil exploration abstract the discoveries of oil and gas in the so called pre salt layer have triggered a lot of discussions about their economic effect in this paper we discuss in detail a less discussed dimension the impact of pre salt layer in the structure of the brazilian economy especially the composition of the industry and exports similar consequences in the country of dutch disease and deindustrialization due to revenues from oil exports are evaluated the methodology used is a dynamic global general equilibrium model with specific features for the treatment of the issues raised

screening as a unied theory of delinquency renegotiation and bankruptcy we propose a parsimonious model with adverse selection where delinquency renegotiation and bankruptcy all occur in equilibrium as a result of a simple screening mechanism a borrower has private information about her cost of bankruptcy and a lender may use random contracts to screen dierent types of borrowers in equilibrium some borrowers choose not to repay and thus become delinquent the lender renegotiates with some delinquent borrowers in the absence of renegotiation delinquency leads to bankruptcy we apply the model to analyze eects of a government intervention in debt restructuring we show that a mortgage modication program aimed at limiting foreclosures that fails to take into account private debt restructuring may have the opposite eect from the one intended

risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments abstract this paper uses a random utility model to estimate consumers valuation of energy efficient insulation and ventilation systems in rental apartments given consumers limited experience in residential buildings and the perceived uncertainty about their comfort benefits and resulting energy savings these relatively new technologies might be undervalued by risk averse consumers using the concept of certainty equivalence this paper proposes a model to assess the consumers risk aversion for adopting energy efficient systems these systems are treated as risky assets while conventional commodities are assumed to be risk free the curvature of the utility function is interpreted as a measure of aversion to perceived risks as opposed to explicit risks measured by observed variances the proposed formulation is applicable in stated preference data with qualitative variables the model is applied to data from a choice experiment conducted among 264 apartment tenants in switzerland the estimated curvatures reject the risk neutrality hypothesis the range of the estimated risk premiums suggests that risk considerations remain a central issue in dealing with energy efficiency in residential buildings the analysis also indicates that assuming same risk attitudes toward new and conventional systems could bias the estimates of the willingness to pay especially when the system is comprised of several components

policy intervention in debt renegotiation evidence from the home affordable modification program we evaluate the effects of the 2009 home affordable modification program hamp that provided intermediaries with sizable financial incentives to renegotiate mortgages hamp increased intensity of renegotiations and prevented a substantial number of foreclosures but reached just one third of its targeted indebted households this shortfall was in large part due to low renegotiation intensity of a few large intermediaries and was driven by intermediary specific factors exploiting regional variation in the intensity of program implementation by intermediaries suggests that the program was associated with a lower rate of foreclosures consumer debt delinquencies house price declines and an increase in durable spending

heat savings and heat generation technologies modelling of residential investment behaviour with local health costs abstract the trade off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in denmark for each group the private economic cost of providing heating comfort is minimised the private solution may deviate from the socio economical optimal solution and we suggest changes to policy to incentivise the individuals to make choices more in line with the socio economic optimal mix of energy savings and technologies the households can combine their primary heating source with secondary heating e g a woodstove this choice results in increased indoor air pollution with fine particles causing health effects we integrate health cost due to use of woodstoves into household optimisation of heating expenditures the results show that due to a combination of low costs of primary fuel and low environmental performance of woodstoves today included health costs lead to decreased use of secondary heating overall the interdependence of heat generation technology and heat saving choice is significant the total optimal level of heat savings for private consumers decrease by 66 when all have the option to shift to the technology with lowest variable costs

characterising deindustrialisation an analysis of changes in manufacturing employment and output internationally deindustrialisation is typically conceptualised as a decline in manufacturing as a share of total employment from a kaldorian perspective deindustrialisation could have negative implications for long run growth given the special growth pulling properties of manufacturing however defining deindustrialisation purely in terms of employment share is conceptually limiting given that some of the kaldorian processes operate primarily through output rather than employment as well as blunting empirical analysis by not focussing enough on changes in manufacturing share of gross domestic product gdp this study develops a new method using decomposition techniques to analyse changes in manufacturing employment levels and shares in 48 countries over periods of deindustrialisation the analysis separates out changes in the levels and shares of employment manufacturing into components associated with changes in the share of manufacturing in gdp the growth of manufacturing value added the labour intensity of manufacturing production and economic growth the results indicate that in most cases the decline in manufacturing employment is associated primarily with falling labour intensity of manufacturing rather than an overall decline in the size or share of the manufacturing sector we suggest that deindustrialisation should appropriately be defined in terms of a sustained decline in both the share of manufacturing in total employment and the share of manufacturing in gdp copyright the author 2008 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

energy comes home the growth in private energy consumption is an increasing problem in western countries from an environmental point of view this consumption has to be reduced on the basis of two norwegian case studies this article discusses private energy consumption and possibilities for reduction with a special focus on the home it argues against a rational economic view of the consumer and emphasizes the significance of a more subtle understanding of private energy use the article approaches the challenges of reducing private energy consumption by analysing the domestication of the home and discusses everyday life activities as well as the phenomenon of rebuilding and redecorating by using the concept of domestication the article challenges the linear understanding of technological as well as behavioural change private energy consumption is part of a complex network and it is necessary to understand this network in order to achieve a more permanent reduction

capabilities and habitat in industrial renewal the case of uk textiles the paper develops an ecological approach to explore conditions for industrial renewal in the uk textiles and apparel sector and the possibilities for policy the authors argue that the material legacy of deindustrialisation conditions the opportunities for survivor firms and creates specific sub sectoral industrial ecologies literature from economics business studies development and ecological studies is used to outline a framework that allows different possible relations between firm capability and local habitat two subsectors carpets and apparel are used to explore the notion of interaction between firm capability and ecology though the context of deindustrialisation is similar in some respects the specific conditions provide quite distinctive opportunities for renewal in carpets relatively larger firms have more successfully co evolved with retailers through various kinds of mutuality in apparel a workshop sector of mainly small and micro firms frequently struggles with predatory behaviour by much larger retailers the implication of this analysis is that industrial policy needs to be grounded in analysis of the capabilities habitat interplay focusing on areas where conditions are favourable or can be improved through supporting firm capabilities and modifying supply chain behaviours the concepts and analysis are relevant for considering other industries and contexts where industrial renewal depends on producer firms and the ecology in which they operate

kaldor s laws and spatial dependence evidence for the european regions pons novell j and viladecans marsal e 1999 kaldor s laws and spatial dependence evidence for the european regions reg studies 33 443 451 in this paper we provide an outline of kaldor s growth model and test its relevance to the economic experience of european regions during the period 1984 92 kaldor s first law asserts that manufacturing is the engine of economic growth his second proposition also known as verdoorn s law states that there is a strong positive relation between manufacturing productivity growth and manufacturing output growth kaldor s third law holds that overall productivity growth is positively related to manufacturing output growth and negatively related to employment in non manufacturing sectors the empirical results corrected for the presence of spatial autocorrelation indicate that kaldor s second and third laws are compatible with the economic growth of european regions during the period 1984 92 pons novell j et viladecans marsal e 1999 les lois de kaldor et la

political intervention in debt contracts this paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model of an agricultural economy in which poor farmers borrow from rich farmers because output is stochastic we allow for idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks there may be default ex post we compare equilibria with and without political intervention intervention takes the form of a moratorium and is decided by voting when bad economic shocks are highly likely state contingent debt moratoria always improve ex post efficiency and may also improve ex ante efficiency moreover the threat of moratoria enhances efficiency when adverse macro shocks are unlikely state contingent moratoria always improve ex ante welfare by completing incomplete debt contracts

peer effects in the diffusion of solar photovoltaic panels social interaction peer effects are recognized as a potentially important factor in the diffusion of new products in the case of environmentally friendly goods or technologies both marketers and policy makers are interested in the presence of causal peer effects as social spillovers can be used to expedite adoption we provide a methodology for the simple straightforward identification of peer effects with sufficiently rich data avoiding the biases that occur with traditional fixed effects estimation when using the past installed base of consumers in the reference group we study the diffusion of solar photovoltaic panels in california and find that at the average number of owner occupied homes in a zip code an additional installation increases the probability of an adoption in the zip code by 0 78 percentage points our results provide valuable guidance to marketers designing strategies to increase referrals and reduce customer acquisition costs they also provide insights into the diffusion process of environmentally friendly technologies

consumer spending and the economic stimulus payments of 2008 abstract we measure the change in household spending caused by receipt of the economic stimulus payments of 2008 using questions added to the consumer expenditure survey and variation from the ran

per customer quantity limit and price discrimination evidence from the u s residential mortgage market abstract theoretically if firms face a regulatory per customer quantity limit they should have an incentive to discriminatively charge high demand customers higher prices and make them just willing to buy a quantity equal to the limit in the u s residential mortgage industry mortgages with origination balances above the conforming loan limits cannot be guaranteed by government sponsored enterprises which make lenders face a per customer quantity limit this paper finds that borrowers bunching at the limit pay higher interest rates due to price discrimination this study rules out the alternative explanation that those borrowers are of higher risk lending cost than other borrowers

premature de industrialisation theory evidence and policy recommendations in the mexican case the main consequences of premature de industrialisation are a slowdown in the rate of economic growth and the deferral of economic development despite having adopted a successful export led growth strategy since the early 1980s these two phenomena have characterised the mexican economy during the past three decades in this article i investigate whether premature de industrialisation has been a major contributor to mexico s economic stagnation and attempt to identify which factors have been driving it the results confirm the hypothesis of premature de industrialisation and suggest that the evolution of income capital accumulation labour manufacturing productivity trade openness and the exchange rate provide an explanation for this process i also suggest a set of alternative policy measures aimed at returning the mexican economy to the path of growth and development

residential bioenergy heating a study of consumer perceptions of improved woodstoves abstract consumers choices play a key role for the development of biomass heating in the residential sector the city of oslo has granted subsidies to households who change to new improved low emission woodstoves the purpose of this study is to expand the knowledge about users experiences and attitudes to residential biomass heating an adapted model of the theory of planned behavior was used to model households inclination to continue using their woodstoves for heating more than 800 questionnaires were collected from households that recently had invested in an improved woodstove the respondents were satisfied with the new woodstoves the respondents also considered themselves competent to use and maintain the stove and few had problems acquiring fuelwood further analyses showed that the intention to continue to use the new woodstove depends on economic benefits heating performance perceived time and effort to operate the stove environmental effects of heating as well as perceived subjective norm the results imply that when marketing a modern technology for bioenergy heating both public authorities and producers should consider issues related to the users perception of subjective norm such as perceived status of using bioenergy or environmental concerns when designing campaigns to promote the use of woodstoves

regional heterogeneity and the refinancing channel of monetary policy we argue that the time varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing using detailed loan level data we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending responses to interest rate cuts but these effects vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth we build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing with mortgage borrowers and lenders and use it to explore the monetary policy implications arising from our regional evidence we find that the 2008 equity distribution made spending in depressed regions less responsive to interest rate cuts thus dampening aggregate stimulus and increasing regional consumption inequality whereas the opposite occurred in some earlier recessions taken together our results strongly suggest that monetary policy makers should track the regional distribution of equity over time

on measuring the effects of fiscal policy in recessions we do not have a good measure of the effects of fiscal policy in a recession because the methods that we use to estimate the effects of fiscal policy both those using the observed outcomes following different policies in aggregate data and those studying counterfactuals in fitted model economies almost entirely ignore the state of the economy and estimate the government multiplier which is presumably a weighted average of the one we care about the multiplier in a recession and one we care less about the multiplier in an expansion notable exceptions to this general claim sug gest this difference is potentially large our lack of knowledge stems significantly from the focus on linear dynamics vector autoregressions and linearized or close to linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models our lack of knowledge also reflects a lack of data deep recessions are few and nonlinearities hard to measure the lack of statistical power in the estimation of nonlinear models using aggregate data can be addressed by exploiting estimates of partial equilibrium responses in disaggregated data microeconomic estimates of the partial equilibrium causal effects of a policy can discipline the causal channels inherent in any dsge model of the general equilibrium effects of policy microeconomic studies can also provide measures of the dependence of the effects of a policy on the states of different agents which is a key component of the dependence of the general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy on the state of the

the ricardian approach to budget deficits persistent budget deficits have increased economists interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy this paper develops the ricardian approach and contrasts it with standard models the discussion considers from major theoretical objections to ricardian equivalence finite lifetimes imperfect capital markets uncertainty about future taxes and incomes and the distorting effects of taxation the paper then considers empirical evidence on interest rates consumption and saving and current account deficits the conclusion is that the ricardian approach is a useful first order approximation and that this approach will probably become the benchmark model for assessing fiscal policy this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

explaining the energy efficiency gap expected utility theory versus cumulative prospect theory abstract energy efficiency is one of the key factors in mitigating the impact of climate change and preserving non renewable resources although environmental and economic justifications for energy efficiency investments are compelling there is a gap between the observable and some notion of optimized energy consumption the so called energy efficiency gap behavioral biases in individual decision making have been resonated by environmental research to explain this gap to analyze the influence of behavioral biases on decisions upon energy efficiency investments quantitatively we compare expected utility theory with cumulative prospect theory on basis of a real world example we illustrate how the extent of the gap is influenced by behavioral biases such as loss aversion probability weighting and framing our findings indicate that cumulative prospect theory offers possible explanations for many barriers discussed in literature for example the size of the gap rises with increased risk and investment costs because behavioral biases are systematic and pervasive our insights constitute a valuable quantitative basis for environmental policy measures such as customer focused and quantitatively backed public awareness campaigns financial incentives or energy savings insurances in this vein this paper may contribute to an accelerated adaption of energy efficiency measures by the broader public

the rationale for energy efficiency policy assessing the recognition of the multiple benefits of energy efficiency retrofit policy the rationale for energy efficiency policy can be framed in terms of a variety of different benefits this paper considers how different benefits have been used within the overall rationale for energy efficient retrofit policy in different contexts we posit that different rationales may be used for the same policy response and that the form of rationale used may affect the design delivery or the level of policy support with different rationales making it easier to account for different results considering retrofit policy in the contexts of the uk germany new zealand and ireland we characterise policy rationale in each case assessing what the key perceived benefits have been and whether they have changed over time the analysis identifies some marked differences between cases with the recognition of benefits and the ensuing policy rationale resulting from a complex mix of political social and economic influences we find that recognition of multiple benefits may not equate with multiplied policy support and instead it is more likely that different rationales will have relevance at different times for different audiences the findings highlight that alongside evidence for policy it is important to also consider how the overall rationale for policy is eventually framed

how significant is intersectoral outsourcing of employment in south africa south africa like many other middle income countries as well as most upper income countries has seen an increase in services and fall in manufacturing as shares of total employment there has been speculation about the extent to which these changes actually represent a genuine structural shift as opposed to a statistical artifact deriving from the domestic outsourcing of activities from manufacturing to services very limited evidence is available as to how much of the apparent changes in the sectoral composition of employment are explained by intersectoral outsourcing this article develops a methodology using household and labor survey data to analyze the extent of intersectoral outsourcing of specific labor intensive activities in south africa from 1997 2007 it is shown that the relatively high growth in services employment is driven by expansion of employment of cleaners and security guards and in particular by outsourcing type reallocation of these activities from manufacturing and the public sector toward private services once outsourcing is accounted for employment seems to have grown at similar rates in manufacturing and in private services the analysis has implications for understanding changes in the sectoral structure of middle income economies and whether services employment is as dynamic as it appears to be copyright 2010 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

markets for energy efficiency exploring the implications of an eu wide tradable white certificate scheme recent developments in european energy policy reveal an increasing interest in implementing the so called tradable white certificate twc schemes to improve energy efficiency based on three evaluation criteria cost effectiveness environmental effectiveness and distributional equity this paper analyses the implications of implementing a european wide twc scheme targeting the household and commercial sectors using a bottom up model quantitative results show significant cost effective potentials for improvements ca 1400 twh in cumulative energy savings by 2020 with the household sector gas and space heating representing most of the twc supply in terms of eligible sector fuel and energy service demand respectively if a single market price of negative externalities is considered a societal costeffective potential of energy savings above 30 compared to the baseline is observed in environmental terms the resulting greenhouse gas emission reductions are around 200mt co2 eq by 2010 representing nearly 60 of the eu kyoto target from the qualitative perspective several embedded ancillary benefits are identified e g employment generation improved comfort level reduced fuel poverty security of energy supply whereas an eu wide twc increases liquidity and reduces the risks ofmarket power autarky compliance strategies may be expected in order to capture co benefits nationally cross subsidies could occur due to investment recovery mechanisms and there is a risk that effects may be regressive for low income households assumptions undertaken by the modelling approach strongly indicate that high effectiveness of other policy instruments is needed for an eu wide twc scheme to be cost effective less

securitization and distressed loan renegotiation evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis abstract we examine whether securitization impacts renegotiation decisions of loan servicers focusing on their decision to foreclose a delinquent loan conditional on a loan becoming seriously delinquent we find a significantly lower foreclosure rate associated with bank held loans when compared to similar securitized loans across various specifications and origination vintages the foreclosure rate of delinquent bank held loans is 3 to 7 lower in absolute terms 13 to 32 in relative terms there is a substantial heterogeneity in these effects with large effects among borrowers with better credit quality and small effects among lower quality borrowers a quasi experiment that exploits a plausibly exogenous variation in securitization status of a delinquent loan confirms these results

stochastic house appreciation and optimal mortgage lending w e characterize the optimal mortgage contract in a continuous time setting with stochastic growth in house price and income costly foreclosure and a risky borrower who requires incentives to repay his debt we show that many features of subprime loans can be consistent with properties of the optimal contract and that when house prices decline mortgage modification can create value for borrowers and lenders our model provides a number of empirical predictions that relate the features of mortgage contracts originated in a housing boom and the extent of their modification in a slump to location and borrowers characteristics jel g20 g21 g33

zero energy homes are they economically viable whilst net zero energy homes are espoused in many policy circles and many bespoke examples have been constructed to demonstrate their technical feasibility there is a scarcity of evidence demonstrating such a standard would be economically rational particularly for large scale housing development where orientation and aspect may not always be optimal drawing on energy monitoring evidence and construction economics associated with a nearly zero energy housing estate in adelaide australia this paper explores the economic feasibility of the net zero energy home policy in warm temperate climates the results demonstrate that using economic tools and assumptions typically applied for building energy regulatory policy changes net societal economic benefits significantly outweigh costs the clear economic outcomes combined with expected health and productivity benefits from improved levels of thermal comfort should provide security to policy makers to progress home energy standards towards net zero energy performance

manufacturing and economic growth in the united states kaldor s growth laws are applied to the post world war ii united states each variable employed in the time series analysis is smoothed with a moving average this procedure successfully mitigates the effects of short term cyclical changes and emphasizes long term economic growth indicate that kaldor s laws are compatible with the economic growth of united states

the determinants of attitudes towards strategic default on mortgages we use survey data to measure households propensity to default on mortgages even if they can afford to pay them strategic default when the value of the mortgage exceeds the value of the house the willingness to default increases in both the absolute and the relative size of the home equity shortfall our evidence suggests that this willingness is affected by both pecuniary and non pecuniary factors such as views about fairness and morality we also find that exposure to other people who strategically defaulted increases the propensity to default strategically because it conveys information about the probability of being sued

marginal costs and co benefits of energy efficiency investments the case of the swiss residential sector abstract key elements of present investment decision making regarding energy efficiency of new buildings and the refurbishment of existing buildings are the marginal costs of energy efficiency measures and incomplete knowledge of investors and architects about pricing co benefits and new technologies this paper reports on a recently completed empirical study for the swiss residential sector it empirically quantifies the marginal costs of energy efficiency investments i e additional insulation improved window systems ventilation and heating systems and architectural concepts for the private sector first results on the economic valuation of co benefits such as improved comfort of living improved indoor air quality better protection against external noise etc may amount to the same order of magnitude as the energy related benefits are given the cost benefit analysis includes newly developed technologies that show large variations in prices due to pioneer market pricing add on of learning costs and risk components of the installers based on new empirical data on the present cost situation and past techno economic progress the potential of future cost reduction was estimated applying the experience curve concept the paper shows for the first time co benefits and cost dynamics of energy efficiency investments of which decision makers in the real estate sector politics and administrations are scarcely aware

the reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates evidence from consumer credit data we use a new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze how consumers responded to the 2001 federal income tax rebates we estimate the monthly response of credit card payments spending and debt exploiting the unique randomized timing of the rebate disbursement we find that on average consumers initially saved some of the rebate by increasing their credit card payments and thereby paying down debt but soon afterward their spending increased counter to the permanent income model spending rose most for consumers who were initially most likely to be liquidity constrained whereas debt declined most so saving rose most for unconstrained consumers

regulating household leverage this article studies how credit markets respond to policy constraints on household leverage exploiting a sharp policy induced discontinuity in the cost of originating certain high leverage mortgages we study how the dodd frank ability to repay rule affected the price and availability of credit in the u s mortgage market our estimates show that the policy had only moderate effects on prices increasing interest rates on affected loans by 10 15 basis points the effect on quantities however was significantly larger we estimate that the policy eliminated 15 of the affected market completely and reduced leverage for another 20 of remaining borrowers this reduction in quantities is much greater than would be implied by plausible demand elasticities and indicates that lenders responded to the policy not only by raising prices but also by exiting the regulated portion of the market heterogeneity in the quantity response across lenders suggests that agency costs may have been one particularly important market friction contributing to the large overall effect as the fall in lending was substantially larger among lenders relying on third parties to originate loans finally while the policy succeeded in reducing leverage our estimates suggest this effect would have only slightly reduced aggregate default rates during the housing crisis

the rise in student loan defaults abstract we examine the rise in student loan defaults in the great recession by linking administrative student loan data at the individual borrower level to student loan borrowers individual tax records a blinder oaxaca style decomposition shows that shifts in the composition of student loan borrowers and the massive collapse in home prices during the great recession can each account for approximately 30 of the rise in student loan defaults falling home prices affect student loan defaults by impairing individuals labor earnings especially for low income jobs by contrast when comparing the default sensitivities of homeowners and renters we find no evidence that falling home prices affect student loan defaults through a home equity based liquidity channel the income based repayment ibr program introduced by the federal government in the wake of the great recession reduced both student loan defaults and their sensitivity to home price fluctuations thus providing student loan borrowers with valuable insurance against negative shocks

evaluation of the impact of environmental public policy measures on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the french residential sector a cut in energy consumption by 2050 to reach 50 kwhpe m2 year and reduce ghg emissions by 75 are important objectives of environmental policy in france the residential sector represents a significant potential source of energy savings in this paper our main objective is to construct a simulation model and to evaluate the impact of environmental public policy measures we model energy consumption and ghg emissions the decision to invest in energy saving renovations and the dynamics of the housing stock particular attention is paid to household investment decisions regarding home renovation to generate the dynamics and the structure of the housing stock through 2050 we introduce socioeconomic variables that alter the number of renovations and new constructions this study has three major outputs first we estimate the energy consumption and ghg emissions of the residential sector in france through 2050 second we study the impact of environmental public policy measures lastly we propose different means to reach the objectives the results show that while current policies are effective they are not sufficient to reach the objectives

the value of social networks in the diffusion of energy efficiency innovations in uk households abstract the uk government has policy goals for increasing energy efficiency in existing homes however there are doubts that standard technology and behavioural innovations will be adopted widely enough in time to achieve the targets diffusion of innovation theory states that the communication of information on innovations through a social system encourages adoption social capital theory states that interpersonal communication is a key means of gaining resources such as information on energy efficiency innovations for attaining certain goals case study research of three british communities was conducted in 2009 in order to understand the influence of social capital on information diffusion regarding the adoption of household energy efficiency measures the findings show that while standard campaigns may account for two thirds of information seeking behaviour they may not be addressing up to one third of information seekers who would prefer to speak to people they know findings also indicate that seeking information amongst personal contacts is often associated with adoption of energy efficiency innovations increasing the likelihood of adoption by up to four times but that there are important differences between types of innovations and communities tailoring campaigns to communities communication channels is therefore imperative these findings have important implications for informing community based energy efficiency programmes

when are modifications of securitized loans beneficial to investors loan modification is widely discussed as an alternative to foreclosure but little research has focused on quantifying its effect on loan performance i quantify this effect early in the housing crisis by exploiting exogenous variation in the incentives to modify securitized nonagency loans an additional modification reduces loan losses by 35 8 relative to the average loss this reduction suggests that the marginal benefit of modification likely exceeded the marginal cost consistent with the idea that high income borrowers may be better equipped to withstand bad economic times i find that modifications are especially beneficial when borrowers have larger loans received april 25 2016 editorial decision march 24 2017 by editor philip strahan

modelling energy savings in the danish building sector combined with internalisation of health related externalities in a heat and power system optimisation model abstract a substantial untapped energy saving potential rests in the building sector and is expected to play an important role in achieving reduction of environmental impacts of energy in order to utilise this potential effective policy measures need to be adopted to remove the existing barriers and create incentives for that purpose the cost effective energy saving options together with an optimal level of savings and expected environmental benefits have to be identified the paper reports on a study that analyses these questions by including heat saving measures in buildings into an energy system optimisation model of the danish heat and power sector the achieved optimal level of heat savings reaches 11 of projected heat demand in 2025 under the model assumptions moreover the analysis reveals the importance of considering energy conservation options in a system wide perspective furthermore the results suggest that changes in the energy generation sector are the prime driver behind the reduction of environmental externalities of energy heat savings in buildings play only a small role under model assumptions

real effects of workers financial distress evidence from teacher spillovers abstract this paper studies the effects of financial distress on workers productivity using detailed data from the public school system in texas we show that the student passing rate in the median sized grade decreases by 1 2 percentage points following a declaration of bankruptcy by one teacher in the grade the effect of financial distress increases with the complexity of the task overall our results suggest a potential feedback effect of worker financial distress on local economic conditions and thus contribute to the understanding of the propagation and potential amplification of shocks through a local economy

can government purchases stimulate the economy this essay briefly reviews the state of knowledge about the government spending multiplier drawing on theoretical work aggregate empirical estimates from the united states as well as cross locality estimates i assess the likely range of multiplier values for the experiment most relevant to the stimulus package debate a temporary deficit financed increase in government purchases i conclude that the multiplier for this type of spending is probably between 0 8 and 1 5 jel e23 e62 h50

economic growth and kaldor s law the case of turkey 1925 78 in this paper kaldor s enine of growth hypothesis is examined and its validity is tested forr the turkish economy the results obtained regardless of the specification and estimation techniques used consistently support the hypothesis

mortgage default in an estimated model of the u s housing market abstract this paper models the housing sector mortgages and endogenous default in a dsge setting with nominal and real rigidities we use data for the period 1981 2006 to estimate our model using bayesian techniques we analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and spreads to the rest of the economy creating a recession in our model two shocks are well suited to replicate the subprime crisis and the great recession the mortgage risk shock and the housing demand shock next we use our estimated model to evaluate a policy that reduces the principal of underwater mortgages this policy is successful in stabilizing the mortgage market and makes all agents better off

the effect of negative equity on mortgage default evidence from hamp s principal reduction alternative the home affordable modification program s hamp s principal reduction alternative pra is a government sponsored program to reduce the principal balances and monthly mortgage payments of troubled borrowers we examine the effect of principal forgiveness on borrowers subsequent mortgage default the program s rules imply a kink in the relationship between principal forgiveness and a borrower s initial equity level our identification strategy exploits the quasi experimental variation in principal forgiveness generated by this kink using a regression kink design rkd which compares the relationship between initial equity and default on either side of the kink we estimate that hamp pra reduced the quarterly default hazard from 3 8 to 3 1 received february 4 2015 accepted august 2 2015 by editor philip strahan

tax evasion capital gains taxes and the housing market abstract in this study we exploit a policy shock that differentially increased capital gains taxes for housing units with holding period less than 5 years and document tax avoidance and tax evasion in the residential resale market in china we show suggestive evidence that after the capital gains tax increase resale transactions exhibit more bunching above 5 years of holding period but the responses are small and imprecisely estimated more importantly using precise information of both the actual transaction price and the reported price to the tax authority we find that tax evasion measured by the difference between the two prices becomes 23 3 higher we also document that the policy has strong heterogeneous effects whereby cash buyers are 8 4 more likely to buy a house than buyers who need financing after the policy this is mainly because financing buyers prefer a higher reported price and so less tax evasion to secure higher bank loans but cash buyers do not have such concern

improving the economics of building energy code change a review of the inputs and assumptions of economic models abstract building energy code change in australia and many other developed nations is subject to standardised economic tests with a net present value calculation at the heart of the economic analysis although many nations have introduced minimum energy efficiency standards for residential and commercial buildings increases in stringency have been hindered by limitations to the range of private and societal impacts typically incorporated in regulatory impact assessments given the policy move towards net zero energy homes a more comprehensive set of inputs and robust assumptions are needed to support further regulatory change yet the literature provides substantial evidence of many private and societal costs and benefits not commonly incorporated into the economic assessments that underpin regulatory change drawing on a case study of australian and uk residential regulatory change assessments this paper highlights limitations to the range of inputs and assumptions currently incorporated within the economic arguments applied during residential energy code change processes and presents a more comprehensive economic argument that could support further stringency improvements

kaldorian approach to greek economic growth in the last 30 years greece has experienced a rapid rate of economic growth which has transformed the economy and enabled it to become a member of the eec specifically greece transformed itself from an agricultural economy with virtually no industrial base to an economy with a significant industrial sector and consequently a relatively high income per capita one can explain this on the lines of a kaldorian framework in this paper we provide an outline of kaldor s growth model and test its relevance to the economic experience of greece during the 1967 1988 period the empirical results suggest that the model can adequately explain the developments in the economy to a considerable degree

the appeal of the green deal empirical evidence for the influence of energy efficiency policy on renovating homeowners abstract the green deal is a major new energy policy designed to support the diffusion of energy efficiency measures in uk homes this paper provides one of the first empirical examinations of the green deal s success in influencing homeowners renovation decisions using a repeated measures design in which households were questioned before and after the green deal s launch in january 2013 we assess the policy s success in raising awareness of energy efficiency in particular we test the effectiveness of the green deal s positioning to overcome barriers to renovation among homeowners already interested in or considering energy efficiency measures using the innovation decision process rogers 2003 as a conceptual framing of the renovation decision process we examine whether new information on energy efficiency provided by the green deal strengthened intentions and its antecedents we find that 1 energy efficiency is of potential appeal to all renovators regardless of their attitudes about energy efficiency 2 energy efficiency opportunities need to be identified in the early stages of renovation when homeowners are thinking about ways to improve their home and 3 homeowners intentions towards energy efficiency are weakened by uncertainty about financial benefits helping to explain the relatively slow uptake of the green deal to date

farm foreclosure moratorium legislation a lesson from the past and the calls for legislation to prevent farm foreclosures are not without precedent farm foreclosures were high throughout the 1920 s and 1930 s in large part because farmers had to make mortgage payments fixed in nominal dollars while their earnings were falling in response many state legislatures sought to aid farmers by passing legislation that postponed foreclosure by creditors scholars have given little attention to these various state emergency measures and their impact on creditors and debtors 2 this article is a step toward filling this void the first section contains a general description of the moratorium legislation and hypotheses about the causes of moratorium legislation are proposed and tested in section ii the economic consequences of moratorium legislation are addressed and the hypotheses are formally specified and tested

fraudulent income overstatement on mortgage applications during the credit expansion of 2002 to 2005 treating fraudulently overstated income on mortgage applications as true income can lead to incorrect conclusions on the nature of the mortgage credit supply expansion toward marginal borrowers from 2002 to 2005 a positive gap between zip code level income growth calculated from mortgage applications and income growth from the irs likely reflects mortgage fraud not an improvement in home buyer income in support of the credit supply view mortgage credit for home purchase expanded significantly more in low credit score neighborhoods on both the extensive and intensive margins from 2002 to 2005 even though these neighborhoods deteriorated on many measures of income prospects

the energy efficiency gap what does it mean abstract as renewed attention has been given by policy makers to energy conservation issues it has frequently been asserted that an energy efficiency gap exists between actual and optimal energy use the critical questions is how to define the optimal level of energy efficiency this paper seeks to disentangle some confusing strands of argument that are frequently brought to bear on this question by identifying the major conceptual issues that determine the set of feasible answers we identify five separate and distinct notions of optimality the economists economic potential the technologists economic potential hypothetical potential the narrow social optimum and the true social optimum each of these has associated with it a corresponding definition of the energy efficiency gap our analysis demonstrates that necessary preconditions for identifying the right measure of the energy efficiency gap include understanding and disentangling market failure and non market failure explanations for the gradual diffusion of energy efficient technologies

the economic effects of a borrower bailout evidence from an emerging market this paper studies the credit market implications and real effects of one the largest borrower bailout programs in history enacted by the government of india against the backdrop of the 2008 2009 financial crisis the study finds that the stimulus program had no effect on productivity wages or consumption but led to significant changes in credit allocation and an increase in defaults post program loan performance declines faster in districts with greater exposure to the program an effect that is not driven by greater risk taking of banks loan defaults become significantly more sensitive to the electoral cycle after the program suggesting the anticipation of future credit market interventions as an important channel through which moral hazard in loan repayment is intensified

a kaldorian approach to regional economic growth in china kaldor s engine of growth hypothesis is examined in the case of the chinese economy china has in the last decade experienced a rapid industrialization and very strong economic growth using regional data of this growth process the three kaldorian laws of economic growth are tested the empirical results support the hypothesis there seems to be an especially strong relation between productivity and industrial growth

the impact of surges in net private capital inflows on manufacturing investment and unemployment abstract we use local projection methods to examine the dynamic response of surges in net private capital inflows on the output and employment shares of manufacturing the investment output ratio and the unemployment rate high income countries are studied separately from emerging economies both from asia and latin america our sample covers the years from 1970 to 2010 we find that surges in high income countries do not magnify the trend toward deindustrialization however the persistent decline in the investment to gdp ratio and the rise in the overall unemployment rate suggest that surges may negatively affect longer run growth prospects and employment opportunities in these countries in middle income asian countries surges tend to induce deindustrialization in both output and employment in the medium run but they do not lower the investment to gdp ratio in middle income latin america surges speed up deindustrialization lower investment and raise economy wide unemployment

debt relief and slow recovery a decade after lehman abstract we follow a representative panel of millions of consumers in the united states from 2007 to 2017 and document new facts on the long term effects of the great recession there were about six million foreclosures over this period only a quarter of foreclosed households regained homeownership taking an average four years to do so this persistent loss of homeownership accounts for most of the decline in the u s homeownership rate despite massive stimulus and debt relief policies house prices consumption and unemployment remained below precrisis levels in about half of the zip codes in the united states regions that recovered to precrisis levels took on average four to five years regional variation in the extent and speed of recovery is strongly and persistently associated with frictions affecting the pass through of lower interest rates and debt relief to households

subjective discount rates in the general population and their predictive power for energy saving behavior why do people sometimes refrain from saving energy even if it would pay off in monetary terms subjective discount rates present one possible explanation for this lack of foresight but little is known about their level and reliability in the general population with regard to behavior persons with lower discount rates are expected to accept additional costs upfront more readily than those with higher discount rates based on a representative nation wide study the swiss environmental survey 2007 and a follow up survey our analyses reveal that on average subjective discount rates are well above market interest rates and moderately stable over a time interval of four years income and education are negatively correlated with discount rates contrary to expectations we did not find convincing support for an impact of discount rates on energy saving behavior

till mortgage do us part mortgage switching costs and household s bank switching abstract we investigate the role of mortgage switching costs in shaping the households decision to change their main bank to this end we use a unique panel dataset that enables us to infer household s bank switching in conjunction with a legal reform that exogenously slashed down the mortgage switching costs the empirical evidence which survives to a variety of robustness checks supports the hypothesis that the explicit switching costs in the retail banking market are a weighty factor in shaping households bank switching despite any potential informational lock in dissecting the results we show that the effects of the reform were not uniform across households the more educated households those with a longer or broader relationship with their previous bank and those residing in ex ante less competitive banking markets were at the forefront of the wave of bank switching