anticipating regret why fewer options may be better we study preferences over menus which can be represented as if the agent selects an alternative from a menu and experiences regret if her choice is ex post inferior since regret arises from comparisons between the alternative selected and the other available alternatives our axioms reflect the agent s desire to limit her options we prove that our representation is essentially unique we also introduce two measures of comparative regret attitudes and relate them to our representation finally we explore the formal connection between the present work and the literature on temptation

a method for solving general equilibrium models with incomplete markets and many financial assets abstract this paper presents a numerical method for solving stochastic general equilibrium models with dynamic portfolio choice the method can be applied to models with heterogeneous agents time varying investment opportunity sets and incomplete asset markets we illustrate the method using a two country model with production we check the accuracy of our method by comparing the numerical solution to a complete markets version of the model against its known analytic properties we then apply the method to an incomplete markets version where no analytic solution is available in all versions the standard accuracy tests confirm the effectiveness of our method

calculating and using second order accurate solutions of discrete time dynamic equilibrium models we describe an algorithm for calculating second order approximations to the solutions to nonlinear stochastic rational expectations models the paper also explains methods for using such an approximate solution to generate forecasts simulated time paths for the model and evaluations of expected welfare differences across different versions of a model the paper gives conditions for local validity of the approximation that allow for disturbance distributions with unbounded support and allow for non stationarity of the solution process

claim timing and ex post adverse selection many health care treatments are not urgent and may be delayed if patients so choose because insurance coverage is typically determined by the treatment date individuals may have incentives to strategically delay treatments to minimize out of pocket costs the strategic delay of treatment a particular form of moral hazard can be an important source of subsequent adverse selection in which ex ante identical individuals select insurance coverage based on their differing accumulation of previously delayed treatments this article investigates these forces empirically in the context of the missing market for dental insurance using rich claim level data my analysis reveals that approximately 40 of individuals strategically delay dental treatments when incentivized to do so and this flexibility in delaying treatment can explain why the market for dental insurance has largely unraveled more generally the counterfactual analysis suggests features such as open enrolment periods and contracting on pre existing conditions may be helpful tools in overcoming adverse selection in insurance contexts where the timing of uncertainty is not contractible

international financial integration and crisis contagion international financial integration helps to diversify risk but also may spread crises across countries we provide a quantitative analysis of this trade off in a two country general equilibrium model with collateral constrained borrowing using a global solution method borrowing constraints bind occasionally depending upon the state of the economy and levels of inherited debt we examine different degrees of international financial integration moving from financial autarky to bond and equity market integration financial integration leads to a significant increase in global leverage substantially escalates the probability of crises for any one country and dramatically increases the degree of contagion across countries outside of crises the impact of financial integration on macroeconomic aggregates is relatively small but the impact of a crisis with integrated international financial markets is much less severe than that under financial market autarky thus a trade off emerges between the probability of crises and the severity of crises using a large cross country database of financial crises in developing and developed economies over a forty year period we find evidence in support of the model

choice proliferation simplicity seeking and asset allocation abstract in settings such as investing for retirement or choosing a drug plan individuals typically face a large number of options in this paper we analyze how the size of the choice set influences which alternative is selected we present both laboratory experiments and field data that suggest larger choice sets induce a stronger preference for simple easy to understand options the first experiment demonstrates that in seeming violation of the weak axiom of revealed preference subjects are more likely to select a given sure bet over non degenerate gambles when choosing from a set of 11 options than when choosing from a subset of 3 the second experiment clarifies that large choice sets induce a preference for simpler rather than less risky options lastly using records of more than 500 000 employees from 638 institutions we demonstrate that the presence of more funds in an individual s 401 k plan is associated with a greater allocation to money market and bond funds at the expense of equity funds

choose to lose health plan choices from a menu with dominated option we examine the health plan choices that 23 894 employees at a u s firm made from a large menu of options that differed only in financial cost sharing and premium these decisions provide a clear test of the predictions of the standard economic model of insurance choice in the absence of choice frictions because plans were priced so that nearly every plan with a lower deductible was financially dominated by an otherwise identical plan with a high deductible we document that the majority of employees chose dominated plans which resulted in excess spending equivalent to 24 of chosen plan premiums low income employees were significantly more likely to choose dominated plans and most employees did not switch into more financially efficient plans in the subsequent year we show that the choice of dominated plans cannot be rationalized by standard risk preference or any expectations about health risk testing alternative explanations with a series of hypothetical choice experiments we find that the popularity of dominated plans was not primarily driven by the size and complexity of the plan menu nor informed preferences for avoiding high deductibles but by employees lack of understanding of health insurance our findings challenge the standard practice of inferring risk preferences from insurance choices and raise doubts about the welfare benefits of health reforms that expand consumer choice

external balances trade and financial conditions abstract i present a new model for the u s external position that accounts for the accumulation of international debt over the past 60 years the model is based on the present value restriction that links a country s external position to future trade flows and financial conditions in the absence of arbitrage opportunities and ponzi schemes it features the role played by the stochastic discount factor the trade and valuation adjustment channels and provides a decomposition of the u s external position into secular and cyclical components the model shows that shocks operating via the valuation channel are the dominant drivers of cyclical dynamics accounting for approximately 80 of the variance over the 60 year sample this channel works primarily via capital gains and losses on u s foreign assets and is closely tied to the international value of the u s dollar in contrast there is no evidence that valuation channel adjustments contribute to the secular dynamics but differences between the average returns on foreign assets and liabilities raise the steady state debt to gdp ratio from approximately 12 to 15 the long term deterioration in the u s position represents a move towards the steady state before the early 1990s and a move away from the steady state thereafter i quantify the expected improvement in future u s trade balances needed to justify this as a sustainable path and show that they are very different from its actual behavior during the last 60 years i also study the behavior of the u s position during the 2007 2008 financial crisis

euro currency risk and the geography of debt flows to peripheral emu abstract the pattern of debt flows to peripheral european monetary union members seems puzzling they are mostly indirect and channeled through the large countries of the emu we examine to what extent the introduction of the euro and the elimination of the intra area currency risk can explain this puzzle we develop a three country dsge framework with endogenous portfolio choice and two currencies in the equilibrium the core members of the emu emerge as the main group of lenders to the peripheral emu outside lenders are pushed out of the periphery debt markets because of currency risk the model generates a pattern of debt flows consistent with the data despite the absence of any exogenous frictions or market segmentations

optimal monetary policy exchange rate misalignments and incomplete financial markets abstract recent literature shows that when international financial trade is restricted to autarky or a single bond there are internal and external welfare trade offs that imply optimal monetary policy in principle deviates from inflation targeting in order to offset real exchange rate misalignments this paper develops a more realistic model of incomplete markets where there is international trade in multiple assets the analysis shows that the presence of multiple assets creates a potentially powerful interaction between monetary policy and household portfolio allocation this interaction is by definition not present when there is financial autarky or a single tradeable bond and this paper shows that the interaction with portfolio allocation can imply that optimal monetary policy generates a quantitatively much more significant stabilisation of the real exchange rate gap than implied by simpler models of financial market incompleteness

evaluating international financial integration in a center periphery economy abstract does opening up capital markets facilitate risk diversification across borders are all countries gradually better off in the process of international financial integration this paper explores welfare implications for various countries in a center periphery framework with endogenous portfolio choice financial integration is divided into four stages financial autarky two country integration center periphery integration and global integration two effects from financial integration emerge diversification effects and financial terms of trade effects results show that financial integration between the center and a new periphery in center periphery integration generates welfare losses for the peripheral country already integrated and welfare gains for the central country allowing for financial integration between peripheries in global integration leads the welfare in the center to deteriorate from two country integration directly to global integration the large country gains while the small one loses

exchange rate regimes and asset prices abstract we study the implications of alternative exchange rate regimes for asset prices in a portfolio balance model motivated by the recent us china experience we establish that asset price responses to various shocks differ across a flexible regime and a unilateral peg but the differences for most shocks tend to be rather small moreover while both monetary and public debt expansions have inflationary effects on equity prices the latter s impact is stronger under a flexible exchange rate regime these two findings suggest that a flexible usd rimni rate would not have limited the recent asset price inflation in the us

heuristics and heterogeneity in health insurance exchanges evidence from the massachusetts connector although health insurance exchanges are likely to be a growing source of individual coverage little is known about consumer behavior on these exchanges while health insurance exchanges are intended to facilitate competition among insurers and make it easier for consumers to access insurance understanding how consumers choose insurance plans is necessary for the design of these markets we characterize demand on a health insurance exchange including the type of plans individuals choose and how they respond to price previous work has noted the potential limits to consumer decision making ability in similar environments abaluck and gruber 2011 in a structural model of health plan choice we consider the role of heterogeneity in preferences and whether consumers rely on simple rules of thumb we offer a first look at behavior on massachusetts s unsubsidized health insurance exchange the connector 1 which was created

consumption baskets and currency choice in international borrowing abstract we propose a novel explanation for the empirically low prevalence of external borrowing in local currency in emerging market economies a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the original sin of international finance we study the endogenous currency denomination of an emerging economy s assets and liabilities within the context of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with portfolio choice featuring non tradable goods and nominal rigidities we find that these features lower the correlation between the local currency and domestic lenders consumption they thus reduce the risk premium demanded by domestic lenders on local currency debt and can therefore help explain the low willingness of foreigners to lend in local currency

financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations abstract recent years have witnessed a large increase in international financial integration in the form of largely offsetting cross holdings across countries we assess how such financial leverage affects the international transmission of monetary shocks and find that it leads to sizable welfare differentials that far exceed the impact due to nominal rigidities we document the relevance of the exact nature of holdings with bond holdings associated with larger effects than equity holdings the impact of financial leverage on welfare is also sensitive to the extent of exchange rate pass through and the substitutability between goods produced in different countries

heterogeneity in choice inconsistencies among the elderly evidence from prescription drug plan choice abstract this paper investigates the degree to which choice inconsistencies documented in the context of medicare part d plan choice vary across consumers and geographic regions our main finding is that there is surprisingly little variation regardless of age gender predicted drug expenditures or the predictability of drug demand consumers underweight out of pocket costs relative to premiums and fail to consider the individualized consequences of plan characteristics as a result they frequently choose plans which are dominated in the sense that an alternative plan provides better risk protection at a lower cost we find limited evidence that the sickest individuals had more difficulty with plan choice and we document that much of the variation in potential cost savings across states comes from variation in choice sets not variation in consumers ability to choose

country portfolio dynamics this paper presents a general approximation method for characterizing timevarying equilibrium portfolios in a two country dynamic general equilibrium model the method can be easily adapted to most dynamic general equilibrium models it applies to environments in which markets are complete or incomplete and it can be used for models of any dimension moreover the approximation provides simple easily interpretable closed form solutions for the dynamics of equilibrium portfolios

a two period model with portfolio choice understanding results from different solution methods using a stylized two period model we compare portfolio solutions from two local solution approaches the approach of judd and guu 2001 and the approach of devereux and sutherland 2010 2011 with the true nonlinear portfolio solution

composition and growth effects of the current account a synthesized portfolio view abstract this paper analyzes a useful accounting framework that breaks down the current account to two components a composition effect and a growth effect we show that past empirical evidence which strongly supports the growth effect as the main driver of current account dynamics is misconceived the remarkable empirical success of the growth effect is driven by the dominance of the cross sectional variation which under conditions met by the data is generated by an accounting approximation in contrast to previous findings that the portfolio share of net foreign assets to total assets is constant in a country both our theoretical and empirical results support a highly persistent process or a unit root process with some countries displaying a trend finally we reestablish the composition effect as the quantitatively dominant driving force of current account dynamics in the past data

comparison friction experimental evidence from medicare drug plans consumers need information to compare alternatives for markets to function efficiently recognizing this public policies often pair competition with easy access to comparative information the implicit assumption is that comparison friction the wedge between the availability of comparative information and consumers use of it is inconsequential because information is readily available and consumers will access this information and make effective choices we examine the extent of comparison friction in the market for medicare part d prescription drug plans in the united states in a randomized field experiment an intervention group received a letter with personalized cost information that information was readily available for free and widely advertised however this additional step providing the information rather than having consumers actively access it had an impact plan switching was 28 percent in the intervention group versus 17 percent in the comparison group and the intervention caused an average decline in predicted consumer cost of about 100 per year among letter recipients roughly 5 percent of the cost in the comparison group our results suggest that comparison friction can be large even when the cost of acquiring information is small and may be relevant for a wide range of public policies that incorporate consumer choice

nominal stability and financial globalization over the past four decades advanced economies experienced a large growth in gross external portfolio positions this phenomenon has been described as financial globalization over roughly the same time frame most of these countries also saw a substantial fall in the level and variability of inflation many economists have conjectured that financial globalization contributed to the improved performance in the level and predictability of inflation in this paper we explore the causal link running in the opposite direction we show that a monetary policy rule which reduces inflation variability leads to an increase in the size of gross external positions both in equity and bond portfolios this appears to be a robust prediction of open economy macro models with endogenous portfolio choice it holds across different modeling specifications and parameterizations we also present preliminary empirical evidence which shows a negative relationship between inflation volatility and the size of gross external positions

home bias and high turnover dynamic portfolio choice with incomplete markets why do investors trade a lot in foreign assets and hold so little of them in their portfolios this paper shows that both observations can arise naturally in the presence of nondiversifiable nontraded consumption risk when each country specializes in production preferences exhibit consumption home bias and asset markets are incomplete using a general equilibrium two country two sector tradable and nontradable model of the world economy with production i show that low diversification occurs because variations in relative prices i increase the riskiness of foreign assets and ii facilitate risk sharing across countries large and volatile capital flows are necessary to take advantage of international risk premia differentials that occur in response to productivity changes in the nontradable sector i characterize the optimal portfolio holdings the evolution of the investment opportunity set the risk premium and the dynamics of capital flows using a new methodology for solving dynamic general equilibrium models with incomplete markets and portfolio choice

the emergence of chaos from classical economic growth this paper shows how fluctuations of an erratic and unstable nature can emerge from the classical deterministic economic growth process implications of the analysis would appear to be at least two first pronounced changes in the way an economy behaves need not cause us to reject our understanding of how it works second we need not seek in exogenous forces an explanation as to why behavioral patterns change and why it may be so difficult to anticipate future events from the profile of past experience

the insurance value of medical innovation abstract economists think of medical innovation as a valuable but risky good producing health benefits but increasing financial risk for consumers and healthcare payers this perspective overlooks how innovation can lower physical risks borne by healthy patients facing the prospect of future disease we present an alternative framework that accounts for all these sources of value and links them to the value of healthcare insurance we show that any innovation worth buying reduces overall risk and generates positive insurance value on its own we conduct a stylized numerical exercise to assess the potential empirical significance of our insights our calculations suggest that conventional methods meaningfully understate the value of historical health gains and disproportionately undervalue treatments for the most severe illnesses where physical risk to consumers is the costliest these calculations also suggest that the value of physical insurance from new technologies may exceed the financial spending risk that they pose

international portfolios capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics despite the liberalization of capital ows among oecd countries equity home bias remains sizable we depart from the two familiar explanations of equity home bias transaction costs that impede international diversi cation and terms of trade responses to supply shocks that provide risk sharing so that there is little incentive to hold diversi ed portfolios we show that the interaction of the following ingredients generates a realistic equity home bias capital accumulation shocks to the e ciency of physical investment as well as international trade in stocks and bonds in our model domestic stocks are used to hedge uctuations in local wage income terms of trade risk is hedged using bonds denominated in local goods and in foreign goods in contrast to related models the low level of international diversi cation does not depend on strongly countercyclical terms of trade the model also reproduces the cyclical dynamics of foreign asset positions and of international capital ows

international portfolios a comparison of solution methods we compare the performance of the perturbation based local portfolio solution method of devereux sutherland 2010a 2011 with a global solution method as a test suite we use model specifications that broadly capture features of international financial trade between advanced economies and between advanced and emerging economies we consider both symmetric country setups and asymmetric setups that capture important empirical facts such as differences in macroeconomic volatility differences in portfolio composition and high equity premia we find that the local method performs well at business cycle frequencies both in the symmetric and asymmetric settings while significant differences arise at long horizons in asymmetric settings

international portfolio flows with growth shocks this paper investigates the impacts of level and growth rate productivity shocks on the cyclical dynamics of gross portfolio flows between two economies using an endogenous portfolio choice problem within a dsge framework we find that the level shocks yield procyclical gross equity flows while the growth rate shocks produce countercyclical flows these dynamics cannot be replicated by only employing persistent shocks to the level of productivity

solving dsge portfolio choice models with dispersed private information abstract noisy rational expectations models in which agents have dispersed private information and extract information from an endogenous asset price are widely used in finance however these linear partial equilibrium models do not fit well in modern macroeconomics that is based on non linear dynamic general equilibrium models we develop a method for solving a dsge model with portfolio choice and dispersed private information we combine and extend existing local approximation methods applied to public information dsge settings with methods for solving noisy rational expectations models in finance with dispersed private information

on the benefits of a monetary union does it pay to be bigger this paper revisits the question of the appropriate domain of a currency area using a new keynesian open economy model in which the world is split into two areas each framed as a continuum of small open regions we show that the adoption of a common currency like the euro can be beneficial for the members of the monetary union since the spill over effects generated by the inflationary policies of the small open economies are likely to outweigh the costs of not tailoring monetary policy to country specific shocks we also show that while the enlargement of the monetary union to another group of small open economies can bring about welfare gains for all countries involved monetary integration of two large economies such as the euro area and the u s will not these findings can help to rationalize the process of the creation and enlargement of multi country currency areas like the eurozone

international capital flows portfolio composition and the stability of external imbalances abstract this paper develops a simple and tractable model of net capital flows in which time varying gross country portfolios are an essential element in current account imbalances the main constituents of country portfolios in the model are general derivatives which could be interpreted as nominal bond assets and liabilities in particular under very weak conditions the world wealth distribution is stationary stationarity is generated by movements in derivative i e bond risk premia such that the return on a debtor country s gross liabilities is less than the return on its gross assets this is well known feature of the us international investment position we also provide suggestive evidence that a similar property holds more widely for a sample of advanced and emerging market countries

international capital flows under dispersed private information abstract it is well established that private information is critical to our understanding of asset prices in this paper we argue that it also affects international capital flows and use a simple two country dsge model to illustrate its impact we show that private information i increases the volatility of both net and gross capital flows ii leads to a high correlation between capital inflows and outflows iii leads to a disconnect of capital flows from observed macro fundamentals and iv implies that capital flows contain information about the future macro fundamentals we also show that dispersed information affects capital flows both through asset prices and directly so that the impact on flows is not just the mirror image of the impact on prices

irregular growth cycles this paper uses the familiar neoclassical theory of capital accumulation to show how complex behavior can emerge from quite simple economic structures indeed when sufficient nonlinearities and a production lag are present the interaction alone of the propensity to save and the productivity of capital can lead to growth cycles that exhibit a wandering sawtooth pattern not unlike those observed in reality these fluctuations need not converge to a cycle of any regular periodicity so they are not quasi periodic because such chaotic trajectories are unstable errors of estimation in parameters or initial conditions however tiny will accumulate rapidly into substantial errors of forecast moreover periods of erratic cycling can be interspersed with periods of more or less stable growth evidently the future behavior of a model solution cannot be anticipated from its patterns in the past a situation that seems to mimic experience apparent structural change and unpredictability is explained in the present theory by a deterministic single equation model random shocks play no role so the reader can visualize just what it is we are are talking about a noteworthy simulation is presented in figure 1 for gnp in a growth model that is described below in section iii a period of relatively rapid growth is followed by a period of cycles then remarkably for a considerable time about twenty periods apparently steady state growth occurs wandering cycles however emerge another brief period close to the steady state appears again toward the end of the series i establish conditions of savings and productivity that lead to results of this kind this analysis makes use of the mathematical theory of chaos which in the form exploited here originated in the work of edward lorenz a formal definition of chaos and sufficient conditions for chaotic trajectories were provided in a seminal paper by t y li and james yorke a survey of these related contributions is found in yorke and evelyn yorke this theory was introduced into economics by jess benhabib and myself 1981 where we showed that sequences of rational choices can be erratic when preferences depend on experience in a certain way by michael stutzer who provides a detailed analysis of trygve haavelmo s growth model by benhabib and myself 1980 in an application of the overlapping generations model and in my forthcoming study of the classical growth model

the industrial organization of health care markets the u s health care sector is large and growing health care spending in 2011 amounted to 2 7 trillion and 18 percent of gdp approximately half of health care output is allocated via markets in this paper we analyze the industrial organization literature on health care markets focusing on the impact of competition on price quality and treatment decisions for health care providers and health insurers we conclude with a discussion of research opportunities for industrial organization economists including opportunities created by the u s patient protection and affordable care act

what drives us foreign borrowing evidence on external adjustment to transitory and permanent shocks the joint dynamics of us net output consumption and valuation adjusted foreign assets and liabilities characterized empirically following lettau and ludvigson 2004 is shown to be strikingly consistent with current account theory while us consumption is virtually insulated from transitory shocks these contribute considerably to the variation in net output and even more so in gross foreign positions arguably smoothing temporary variations in returns a single permanent shock naturally interpreted as a productivity shock raises consumption swiftly while causing net output to adjust only gradually this leads to persistent procyclical external deficits but interestingly moves gross assets and liabilities in the same direction

subprime borrowers securitization and the transmission of business cycles a growing literature i e jaffee lynch richardson and van nieuwerburgh 2009 acharya and schnabl 2009 argues that securitization improves financial stability if the securitized assets are held by capital market participants rather than financial intermediaries i construct a quantitative macroeconomic model with a novel specification for mortgage backed securities mbs to evaluate this claim my findings suggest that the existence of the securitization market stabilizes the economy under the condition that financial intermediaries do not engage in the acquisition of securitized assets in the presence of large negative housing preference shocks the drop in output in the first year after the shock is halved if subprime mbs are purchased by non financial agents rather than held by banks less

home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics standard theory would predict that investors hold a well diversified portfolio of equities across the world but despite the process of financial globalization investors still hold a disproportionate share of local equities in their portfolio the equity home bias french and poterba 1991 we review the various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon in the context of recent developments in macroeconomic modelling that have allowed to incorporate sophisticated international portfolio choices in standard two country general equilibrium models we refer to this literature as open economy financial macroeconomics we focus on three broad classes of explanations i hedging motives in frictionless financial markets real exchange rate and non tradable income risk ii asset trade costs in international financial markets such as transaction costs differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets iii informational frictions and behavioural biases these recent developments raise the need for new portfolio facts beyond the equity home bias and we will present some new evidence on cross border asset holdings across different types of assets equities bonds and bank lending we also present some new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level these data should inform macroeconomic modelling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment

computing second order accurate solutions for rational expectation models using linear solution methods this paper shows how to compute a second order accurate solution of a non linear rational expectation model using algorithms developed for the solution of linear rational expectation models the result is a state space representation for the realized values of the variables of the model this statespace representation can easily be used to compute impulse responses as well as conditional and unconditional forecasts

does price framing affect the consumer price sensitivity of health plan choice this paper provides field evidence on how price framing affects consumers decision to switch health plans in 2009 german federal regulation required insurers to express premium differences between standardized health plans in absolute euro values relative to a federal reference price rather than in percentage point payroll tax differences representative individual level panel data and aggregated health plan level panel data on the universe of health plans show that the reform strongly increased enrollees willingness to switch plans with demand elasticities increasing fourfold the salience of premium differences and the default premium are obviously key driving forces in the decision to switch insurers

the long or short of it determinants of foreign currency exposure in external balance sheets abstract a major focus of the recent literature on the determination of optimal portfolios in open economy macroeconomic models has been on the role of currency movements in determining portfolio returns that may hedge various macroeconomic shocks however there is little empirical evidence on the foreign currency exposures that are embedded in international balance sheets using a new database we provide stylized facts concerning the cross country and time series variation in aggregate foreign currency exposure and its various subcomponents in panel estimation we find that richer more open economies take longer foreign currency positions in addition we find that an increase in the propensity for a currency to depreciate during bad times is associated with a longer position in foreign currencies providing a hedge against domestic output fluctuations we view these new stylized facts as informative in their own right and also potentially useful to the burgeoning theoretical literature on the macroeconomics of international portfolios

choice inconsistencies among the elderly evidence from plan choice in the medicare part d program comment consumers enrollment decisions in medicare part d can be explained by abaluck and gruber s 2011 model of utility maximization with psychological biases or by a neoclassical version of their model that precludes such biases we evaluate these competing hypotheses by applying nonparametric tests of utility maximization and model validation tests to administrative data we find that 79 percent of enrollment decisions from 2006 to 2010 satisfied basic axioms of consumer theory under the assumption of full information the validation tests provide evidence against widespread psychological biases in particular we find that precluding psychological biases improves the structural model s out of sample predictions for consumer behavior

international capital flows abstract the surge in international asset trade since the early 1990s has lead to renewed interest in models with international portfolio choice we develop the implications of portfolio choice for both gross and net international capital flows in the context of a simple two country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model we focus on the time variation in portfolio allocation following shocks and resulting capital flows endogenous time variation in expected returns and risk which are the key determinants of portfolio choice affect capital flows in often subtle ways the model is consistent with a broad range of empirical evidence an additional contribution of the paper is to overcome the technical difficulty of solving dsge models with portfolio choice by developing a broadly applicable solution method

contextual inference in markets on the informational content of product lines context can influence decisions this malleability of choice is usually invoked as evidence that people do not maximize stable preference orderings in a market equilibrium however context conveys payoff relevant information to consumers consequently these consumers rationally violate naive formulations of standard choice theoretic principles i identify informational asymmetries under which apparently anomalous behaviors namely the compromise effect and choice overload arise as market equilibria firms respond to consumers contextual inference in case of the compromise effect a firm may introduce premium loss leaders expensive goods of overly high quality that increase the demand for other goods

the external wealth of nations measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries abstract although capital flows are closely monitored surprisingly little is known about the accumulated stocks of foreign assets and liabilities held by various countries especially in the developing world this paper constructs estimates of foreign assets and liabilities and their equity and debt subcomponents for a sample of 67 industrial and developing countries it characterizes the stylized facts of international balance sheets and asks whether there are trends in net foreign asset positions and shifts in debt equity ratios over time finally it explores the sensitivity of estimated stock positions to the treatment of valuation effects not captured in balance of payments data

choice inconsistencies among the elderly evidence from plan choice in the medicare part d program we evaluate the choices of elders across their insurance options under the medicare part d prescription drug plan using a unique data set of prescription drug claims matched to information on the characteristics of choice sets we document that elders place much more weight on plan premiums than on expected out of pocket costs value plan financial characteristics beyond any impacts on their own financial expenses or risk and place almost no value on variance reducing aspects of plans partial equilibrium welfare analysis implies that welfare would have been 27 higher if patients had all chosen rationally

valuation effects with transitory and trend productivity shocks abstract changes in asset prices of a country s foreign assets and liabilities valuation effects are commonly thought of as stabilizing they counteract current account movements and mitigate the impact of the current account on the country s net foreign asset nfa position this paper shows that whether valuation effects are stabilizing or not depends critically on the nature of the underlying productivity shocks in response to transitory shocks valuation effects are stabilizing but in response to trend shocks such effects amplify the impact of the current account on nfa position these contrasting effects arise because optimally smoothing consumers respond differently to a transitory shock than to a trend shock to income this theoretical result finds empirical support with g7 countries data and is illustrated by the pattern of external imbalances between the u s and other g7 countries since the 1990s

part d formulary and benefit design as a risk steering mechanism in 2006 the medicare part d program intro duced universal publicly subsidized prescription drug coverage to american seniors the pro gram relies upon competition among drug plans to provide coverage plans have enormous scope to design benefits and to set premiums but they may not charge differential premiums based on risk

the international diversification puzzle is not as bad as you think the international diversification puzzle is the fact that country portfolios are on average biased toward domestic assets while one good international macro models with nondiversifiable labor income risk predict the opposite pattern of diversification this paper embeds a portfolio choice decision in a two good international business cycle model and provides a closed form solution for equilibrium country portfolios equilibrium portfolios are biased toward domestic assets because endogenous international relative price fluctuations make domestic assets a good hedge against labor income risk evidence from developed economies in recent years is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the mechanisms highlighted by the theory

country portfolios in open economy macro models this paper develops a simple approximation method for computing equilibrium portfolios in dynamic general equilibrium open economy macro models the method is widely applicable simple to implement and gives analytical solutions for equilibrium portfolio positions in any combination or types of asset it can be used in models with any number of assets whether markets are complete or incomplete and can be applied to stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models of any dimension so long as the model is amenable to a solution using standard approximation methods we first illustrate the approach using a simple two asset endowment economy model and then show how the results extend to the case of any number of assets and general economic structure

when more alternatives lead to less choice this paper shows that when the alternatives offered to consumers span the preference space as it would be chosen by a firm search or evaluation costs may lead consumers not to search and not to choose if too many or too few alternatives are offered if too many alternatives are offered then the consumer may have to engage in many searches or evaluations to find a satisfactory fit this may be too costly and result in the consumer avoiding making a choice altogether if too few alternatives are offered then the consumer may not search or choose fearing that an acceptable choice is unlikely these two forces result in the existence of a finite optimal number of alternatives that maximizes the probability of choice

why does capital flow to rich states abstract the magnitude and the direction of net international capital flows do not fit neoclassical models the fifty u s states comprise an integrated capital market with very low barriers to cap

valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets abstract valuation effects can imply that the traditional current account is an inaccurate measure of the change in the net foreign asset nfa position this paper uses new developments in the analysis of portfolio choice in general equilibrium to investigate valuation effects in a two country model broadly speaking the valuation effects in the model correspond to those observed in the data but there is a key distinction between unanticipated and anticipated valuation effects unanticipated effects can be large dominating the movement in nfa but anticipated effects arise only at higher orders of approximation and are small for reasonable parameterizations