does exchange rate variability depress trade flows evidence from error correction models this paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of the g 7 countries in the context of a multivariate error correction model the error correction models do not show any sign of parameter instability the results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on the volume of exports in each of the g 7 countries assuming market participants are risk averse these results imply that exchange rate uncertainty causes them to reduce their activities change prices or shift sources of demand and supply in order to minimize their exposure to the effects of exchange rate volatility this in turn can change the distribution of output across many sectors in these countries it is quite possible that the surprisingly weak relationship between trade flows and exchange rate volatility reported in several previous studies are due to insufficient attention to the stochastic properties of the relevant time series copyright 1993 by mit press

investment financing decisions and tax policy mists have analyzed the effects of taxes on capital spending most studies assume that firms respond to prices set in centralized securities markets such as market interest rates of tobin s q and firms undertake all profitable investment projects firms choose the mix or finance among internal funds debt and new equity independently the availability of finance does not limit investment the implications for tax policy are clear the marginal tax rate on returns from a new project matters for investment not the firm s average tax burden on returns from its investments in place for firms that face imperfect markets for

returns to micro entrepreneurship in an emerging economy a quantile study of entrepreneurial indonesian households welfare presenting low individual returns but providing households with livelihoods and means to cope with economic vulnerability micro entrepreneurship s evaluation should include both context and heterogeneity using a four wave panel of 9 157 indonesian households this study proposes a quantile estimation of micro entrepreneurship s effects on four household level complementary measures of welfare income consumption household and total assets it evidences substantial positive but decreasing effects on the four measures with the highest relative returns for the poorest for this category micro entrepreneurship primarily provides returns in the form of income translating into higher relative consumption but more importantly into a greater relative assets accumulation

defence procurement theory and uk policy since the early 1980s competition as a means of obtaining best value for money has dominated uk defence procurement policy this paper describes the uk defense equipment market and the procurement problem there are sections on the economic theory of procurement contracting regulation and competition the conclusion evaluates uk defence procurement policy and assesses some of the policy issues for the 1990s copyright 1996 by oxford university press

financial factors and investment in belgium france germany and the united kingdom a comparison using company panel data we construct company panel data sets for manufacturing firms in belgium france germany and the united kingdom covering the period 1978 1989 these data sets are used to estimate empirical investment equations and to investigate the role played by financial factors in each country a robust finding is that cash flow and profits terms appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more significant in the united kingdom than in the three continental european countries this is consistent with the suggestion that financial constraints on investment may be relatively severe in the more market oriented u k financial system

recent developments in international finance a guide to research abstract this is a critical evaluation of the state of the art in international finance several points of reference are selected the mundell fleming branson mfp paradigm the monetary model with purchasing power parity ppp as a long run anchor the representative agent approach and the natural real exchange rate natrex model their strengths and weaknesses are identified from both a theoretical and empirical point of view we conclude with a suggestion of what is a fruitful explanation of medium to longer run movements in the real exchange rate and the current account

credit rationing or entrepreneurial risk aversion a comment cressy 2000 argues that the positive correlation between assets and the rate of business startups is due to dara preferences we show however that the required property is prudence and prudence is consistent with dara iara or cara

an aggregate model of the credit union industry prior to 1971 credit unions cus were almost exclusively short term lenders with their deposit base consisting primarily of passbook share accounts radical institutional changes during the 1970 s have reshaped the industry and increased the competition between cus and other financial institutions the introduction of federal share insurance in 1971 coupled with the highest deposit ceiling allowed by regulators allowed cus to attract funds from other intermediaries while cus have a yield advantage they have been much slower to introduce day of deposit to day of withdrawal interest accumulation so that many cu deposits may be regarded more as short term certificate accounts rather than open passbooks thus as the federal reserve system and the federal home loan bank board have liberalized cu yields maturities and minimum denominations it has affected cus ability to attract share deposits substantial competition exists in loan markets as well banks finance companies and the credit acceptance subsidies of many manufacturing corporations also extend consumer credit while cus have entered mortgage markets in this study a six equation simultaneous model is developed to estimate three different aggregate flows within the industry new loan extensions net share flows and net change in financial investments two price variables the average cu loan rate and average dividend rate and the median maturity on newly extended loans to account for endogenous changes in non price terms which may affect both the supply and demand for loans this study is important to both researchers and policymakers despite the movement to make credit unions more like and more competitive with other financial institutions there remains a general perception that cus are different that they cannot be analyzed by applying well known economic theories and methods and that they remain insulated from both general economic conditions and competition the evidence from this study suggests that those perceptions are in error even though the industry remains small relative to other providers of consumer financial services because cus are no longer insulated it is important to know the impact of changing economic conditions on the industry department of economics john carroll university funding by the national credit union administration ncua is gratefully acknowledged participants in a seminar at ncua provided the author with seveal suggestions which were incorporated in the research special thanks are due to john wolken who spent countless hours in discussion with the author and catherine melfi and george kosicki who provided research assistance any remaining errors or omissions are the sole responsibility of the author

founder backgrounds and the evolution of firm size to what extent are firm size differences influenced by entrepreneurs pre founding experience and do these differences persist over time we analyze these questions using a novel data set assembled for australian and new zealand wine producers on their heritage and sizes at various ages our findings indicate that on average firms founded by individuals with prior wine industry experience are larger initially and remain larger for at least the next 20 years using additional data on professional backgrounds export scope and the size of the firms at which experienced founders previously worked we explore alternative mechanisms that could have generated these persistent size differences copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

the influence of age on smes growth determinants empirical evidence this paper seeks to investigate whether age is a fundamental characteristic of the relationships between determinants and growth the empirical evidence obtained allows us to conclude that 1 age and size are restrictive factors of the growth of young smes but they are not important for the growth of old smes 2 cash flow and debt are of greater relative importance for growth in young smes than for growth in old smes 3 rd 4 interest on debt is of greater relative importance for diminished growth in young smes than for diminished growth in old smes and 5 r d intensity in situations of financial deficit is of greater relative importance for diminished growth in young smes than for diminished growth in old smes but only in context of high tech smes

empirical patterns of firm growth and r d investment a quality ladder model interpretation we present a partial equilibrium model of endogenous firm growth with r d investment and stochastic innovation as the engines of growth drawing on the quality ladder models in the macro growth literature and the literature on patent races and the discrete choice models of product differentiation the model fits a number of empirical patterns well including i a skewed size distribution of firms with persistent differences in firm sizes ii firm growth independent of firm size as stated in the so called gibrat s law and iii r d investment proportional to sales

a reestimation of the evans jovanovic entrepreneurial choice model abstract the evans jovanovic finding that entrepreneurial ability and wealth are negatively correlated is puzzling we show that this may result from a downward bias in their wealth data using less biased wealth data we find a positive correlation which is theoretically more justifiable

entrepreneurship and economic theory this article discusses economic theories of entrepreneurship drawing principally on work conducted in labour economics microeconomics macroeconomics and financial economics the article explains how incentives and constraints of various kinds affect occupational choices and entrepreneurial innovation as well as how entrepreneurial decisions affect macroeconomic performance implications for public policy are drawn

young and no money never mind the material impact of social resources on new venture growth although growth is a desirable outcome for new ventures due to the many advantages of large size most new firms fail to grow largely because of their limited resources and adaptability this paper addresses the question of how new ventures grow despite their limited financial resources i explore the effect of two specific nonfinancial social resources legitimacy and status on new venture growth i propose that new firms can acquire legitimacy by mimicking the structures and ceremonial activities of established firms in their industry and can acquire status by affiliating with high status entities using a unique panel data set on a cohort of advertising agencies founded in new york and chicago between 1977 and 1985 i show that legitimacy and status have favorable impacts on new firms growth in revenues and number of employees the paper makes important contributions to social embeddedness and institutional research by examining the strategic implications of firm level social resources and to the literature on entrepreneurship in general and new venture growth in particular

on the relationship between firm size and export intensity export marketing literature supports the view that firm size is positively related to export intensity although the empirical findings have been mixed a number of theoretical arguments are used to support this proposition i e international marketing economies of scale limited managerial and financial resources of small firms decisionmaker s risk perception based on a large survey of the italian manufacturing industry the article falsifies the proposition and challenges some widely held assumptions in export marketing literature

firm growth and liquidity constraints a dynamic analysis using a large unbalanced panel data set of portuguese manufacturing firms surviving over the period from 1990 to 2001 the purpose of this paper is to examine whether liquidity constraints faced by business firms affect firm growth we use a gmm system to estimate a dynamic panel data model of firm growth that incorporates cash flow as a measure of liquidity constraints and persistence of growth the model is estimated for all size classes including micro firms our findings reveal that smaller and younger firms have higher growth cash flow sensitivities than larger and more mature firms this is consistent with the suggestion that financial constraints on firm growth may be relatively more severe for small and young firms nevertheless the same finding can be interpreted in a different way if we consider the more recent literature which interpret the higher investment cash flow sensitivity of younger and smaller firm in absence of financial market imperfection as the outcome of these firms reaction to the fact that realisation of their cash flows reveals them the direction to go in presence of uncertainty of their growth prospect besides firms that were small and young at the beginning of the sample period exhibited more persistent growth than those that were large and old finally these results have significant policy implications

are there non linearities between sme growth and its determinants a quantile approach this article uses quantile regressions to study the relationship between the growth of portuguese small and medium enterprises smes and its determinants to control a sample selection bias we use a two step estimation in the first stage we verified that past growth size age rd ii debt and rd iii age is a restrictive factor of portuguese sme growth only when there is an increase in size and iv cash flow although a determinant promoting portuguese sme growth regardless of the level of growth takes on greater importance when there is a reduction in size copyright 2010 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

one or more growth processes evidence from new italian firms the paper proposes a descriptive model of firm growth which assumes that learning processes are conditional on existing competencies of the firm and its founders we suggest the idea that firms who do not grow under all realizations of potentially profitable opportunities can be considered as zero learning in order to explain why some firms are zero learning and how these are different from growing ones we put forward and discuss the hypothesis that both start up size and founders pre entry history affect the firm s ability to adjust to market using a sample of 3 905 italian firms born in 1999 and 2000 we find that individual competencies influence start up size but not directly growth we also find a significant nonlinear relationship between start up size and growth implying that firms which were born smaller than a given size grow significantly less the results support the hypothesis that multiple and heterogeneous growth processes coexist and that the growth process of microfirms below a given organizational threshold may be structurally different in the long run from that of firms starting up above that threshold

corporate growth and industrial structures some evidence from the italian manufacturing industry this work analyses the properties of corporate growth in a large longitudinal sample of italian manufacturing firms in particular it focuses on the statistical properties of growth rates and on the influence of proxies for relative efficiency upon relative growth in line with previous work the emergence of fat tails in growth rate distributions and the idiosyncratic nature of autocorrelation coefficients confirm the existence of a structure in the growth process richer than the one normally assumed by the gibrat law hypothesis and suggest the presence of firm specific drivers of growth at the same time there is a remarkable puzzle concerning the absence of any negative relationship between size and growth variance and only weak influences of relative efficiencies upon growth dynamics

no deep pockets some stylized empirical results on firms financial constraints this paper is a survey of recent empirical work on financial constraints faced by firms it is organized as a series of stylized results which mirror what is generally understood about the severity of financial constraints and the effects that they have upon firms the review of the literature shows that a financial constraints are a widespread key concern for firms hindering their ability to carry out their optimal investment and growth trajectories and b the severity of such constraints depends on institutional and firm specific characteristics as well as on the nature of investment projects

is the growth of small firms constrained by internal finance this paper examines the long standing theory that the growth of small firms is often constrained by the quantity of internal finance under plausible assumptions when financing constraints are binding an additional dollar of internal finance should generate slightly more than an additional dollar of growth in assets this quantitative prediction should not hold for the relatively small number of firms which access external equity we test these predictions with a panel of more than 1 600 small firms and find that the growth of most firms is constrained by internal finance our results have implications for several different research literatures including models of firm growth

sme credit constraints in asia s rising economic star fresh empirical evidence from vietnam this study provides a fresh look at the sme sector s economic backbone vis a vis credit constraint dichotomy in vietnam asia s rising economic star the study uses data from the survey of manufactu

business performance and angels presence a fresh look from france 2008 2011 business angels enjoy a strong reputation for being more efficient than other investors among policy makers practitioners and scholars however due to the limited availability of specific financial data previous research has barely assessed the impact of angels on companies performance this paper seeks to bridge this gap by providing evidence from a unique dataset made up of 432 angel backed french companies which are compared to two control groups one randomly selected and another one consisting of similar enterprises this double comparison process enables us to purge our analysis of structural effect and to demonstrate the importance of the methodology in generating the sample indeed the results we obtain significantly differ depending on the control group our results show that the positive influence of angels depends on the condition of the comparison the set of ba backed companies is more likely to exhibit superior performance when it is compared to a random sample whereas the companies performance is either identical or worse when it is compared to a sample composed of k nearest neighbors in addition using a quantile regression technique makes it possible to differentiate the effect of business angels based on the distribution of the value of the growth rate

banks financial liberalisation and financial crises in emerging markets the east asian financial crisis has raised a series of important issues amongst them is the question of the role of the banking sector and financial liberalisation in contributing to financial crises how do weaknesses in the domestic banking sector when combined with both domestic and international financial liberalisation engender currency crises what is lacking in the literature is a simple conceptual framework within which these connections can be conceptualised and drawn out and in which the role of banks is explicitly discussed this paper seeks to provide just such a framework within it international financial liberalisation can be seen as fuelling a boom in domestic credit which leads to acute balance sheet problems for domestic banks and exposes the country concerned to a currency crisis in the event of a sudden reversal of capital inflows which banking weaknesses may itself trigger

a time to grow and a time to die growth and mortality of credit unions in new york city 1914 1990 one vision of organizational evolution suggests that old and large organizations become increasingly dominant over their environment a second suggests that as organizations age they become less able to respond to new challenges in this article the authors investigate which of these visions best characterizes the evolution of state chartered credit unions in new york city from 1914 through 1990 by analyzing the effects of organizational age size and population density on rates of organizational failure and growth the authors find evidence that old and small institutions are more likely to fail while young and small organizations have the highest growth rates

internet start ups access to the bank loan market evidence from italy the analysis of the bank sector s ability to efficiently fuel the birth of new italian business ventures in internet related services is studied in particular through the specification and the estimate of a series of econometric models this paper aims at investigating which characteristics of a large sample of internet start ups and their relative founders facilitate access to the loan market more precisely the role played by founders human capital as a possible significant signal used by banks to evaluate investment projects is addressed estimation results suggest that highly qualified human resources possessed by internet founders do not represent an important driver for gaining access to bank credit and they do not affect the amount of the incurred debt

asymmetric information financing constraints and investment the results of a number of theoretical papers lead to the hypothesis that financial variables affect capital sp ending because of asymmetric information in capital markets the auth ors review the relevant theory and test this hypothesis with a large sample of firm data the results show that financial variables such a s cash flow and interest expense add significant explanatory power to investment equations based on dale jorgenson s neoclassical model w ith a capm specification for the firm s cost of capital and a sales accelerator model the analysis therefore links recent theoretical work on capital markets to long standing empirical debates in the inv estment literature copyright 1987 by mit press

why are distributions of firm growth rates tent shaped abstract recent empirical analyses on different datasets have revealed a common exponential behavior in the shape of the probability density of the corporate growth rates we present new evidence on this topic from the italian manufacturing industry and propose a very simple mechanism that under rather general assumptions provides a robust explanation for the observed regularities

the impact of classes of innovators on technology financial fragility and economic growth in this article we study innovation processes and technological change in an agent based model by including a behavioral switching among heterogeneous innovative firms the model is able to replicate via simulations well known industrial dynamic and growth type stylized facts the main original element of the model is that firms are allowed to endogenously change among three different classes namely single innovators collaborative innovators and imitators moreover our analysis focuses on the impact of these three innovation categories on micro meso and macro aggregates we find that collaborative companies are those having the highest positive impact on the economic system furthermore we have paid particular attention to the role of credit market in promoting smart growth for this purpose we analyze the role of banks as sources of external funds for innovative entrepreneurs our results suggest a trade off between short term profit maximization and long term efficiency which prevents banks to foster investment in r d and technological progress the model is then used to study the effect that different innovation policies have on macroeconomic performance

growth processes of high growth firms as a four dimensional chicken and egg this article investigates whether high growth firms grow in different ways from other firms specifically we analyze how firms grow along several dimensions growth of sales employment assets and operating profits using structural vector autoregressions causal relations are identified by using information contained in the non gaussian growth rate distributions for most firms the growth process starts with employment growth which is then followed by sales growth then growth of operating profits and finally growth of assets in contrast high growth firms put more emphasis on growth of operating profits driving other dimensions of growth with employment growth occurring at the end

why is labour managed firm entry so rare an analysis of uk manufacturing data abstract why are there so few labour managed entrants in market economies we address this question by analysing a panel of labour managed entrants into uk manufacturing industries using poisson and negative binomial random effects models our main finding is a significant negative relationship between entry counts and both the capital labour ratio and the variance of profits this is consistent with long standing theoretical arguments that labour managed firms face problems in raising capital and spreading risk

measuring and analysing the effects of short term volatility in real exchange rates this paper examines short term volatility in the real effective exchange rates of industrial countries and its impact on their imports it yields three conclusions first volatility has not diminished as markets have gained experience with floating exchange rates the trend appears to be in the opposite direction for some countries second exposure to short term volatility has differed among countries japan and sweden have experienced much more than most other industrial countries third volatility appears to depress the volume of international trade this third finding is consistent with results reported by cushman and by akhtar and hilton and challenges earlier findings by hooper and kohlhagen

real exchange rate volatility and the us bilateral trade a var approach this paper uses var models to investigate the impact of real exchange rate volatility on u s bilateral imports from the united kingdom france germany japan and canada the var systems include u s and foreign macro variables and are estimated separately for each country the major results suggest that the effect of volatility on imports is weak although permanent shocks to volatility do have a negative impact on this measure of trade and those effects are relatively more important over the flexible rate period copyright 1989 by mit press

unfair credit allocations this article investigates the impact of credit allocation on heterogeneous wealth entrepreneurs we show that with decreasing risk aversion and unobservable wealth poorer borrowers exert more effort as a consequence of endogenous adverse selection they are either excluded from the market or necessarily subsidize richer borrowers in a pooling equilibrium resulting in a paradoxical and inequitable redistribution alternatively a less likely separating equilibrium may occur in which poor types bear the entire weight of separation in the form of excess risk taking

saving to overcome borrowing constraints implications for small business entry and exit this paper shows how a dynamic analysis of entrepreneurial choice in which inter temporal savings plans can be adjusted to build up capital allows agents to overcome borrowing constraints this casts fresh doubt on the notion that borrowing constraints deter entrepreneurial entry in the long run impatient agents are shown to voluntarily remain constrained indefinitely whereas patient agents become entrepreneurs the model also explains temporary and permanent closures of viable businesses the model s predictions are consistent with evidence of greater savings behaviour by entrepreneurs

misalignment of the baht and its trade balance consequences for thailand in the 1980s and 1990s this paper examines thailand s pre crisis exchange rate policy focusing on the degree of the country s real exchange rate misalignment pre crisis and its consequent effects on thailand s trade balance with its two large trading partners the us and japan in the 1980s and 1990s defining misalignment as the difference between actual and equilibrium exchange rates we estimate three key equilibrium exchange rates of the thai baht a the real effective equilibrium exchange rate of the thai baht against its twenty two major trading partners b the bilateral real equilibrium exchange rates of the baht against the us dollar and c the bilateral real equilibrium exchange rate of the baht against the japanese yen

when is gibrat s law a law the purpose of this article is to investigate if the industry context matters for whether gibrat s law is rejected or not using a dataset that consists of all limited firms in five digit nace industries in sweden during 1998 2004 the results reject gibrat s law on an aggregate level since small firms grow faster than large firms however gibrat s law is confirmed about as often as it is rejected when industry specific regressions are estimated it is also found that the industry context e g minimum efficient scale market concentration rate and number of young firms in the industry matters for whether gibrat s law is rejected or not

do labor tax rebates facilitate firm growth an empirical study on french establishments in the manufacturing industry 2004 2011 in order to reduce labor costs and stimulate job creation many governments implement a large set of devices mainly consisting in reduced rates of social contributions the evaluation of their effect is still controversial unlike previous research our purpose is to appraise to what extent firm growth reacts to a decrease in the cost of labor per employee we tackle this question using an unbalanced panel of french establishments operating in the manufacturing industry between 2004 and 2011 we run estimations using a 2 step estimator making it possible to estimate the impact of explanatory variables on job creation at any point of the distribution of establishments employment growth rate while also controlling for individual fixed effects component our results show that the effect of the decrease in the labor cost generated by tax rebates mainly benefits fast growing and large establishments indeed the change in the number of employees in other establishments is significantly less affected even though the effect remains positive by the reduction in social contributions this is particularly the case for smaller establishments as well as for those whose growth is stagnant or negative these results lead us to reconsider the relevance of large scale policies aiming at reducing labor costs in the same way for all establishments regardless of their size or financial health

consumption leisure preference structure a new explanation of the evans jovanovic results for entrepreneurial choice this paper extends evans and jovanovic s 1989 ej model to explicitly consider the latent entrepreneur s consumption leisure preference structure and shows that an increase in his or her assets encourages entrepreneurial activity this result indicates that ej s finding may hold without the assumption of liquidity constraints

do liquidity constraints matter in explaining firm size and growth some evidence from the italian manufacturing industry the paper investigates whether liquidity constraints affect firm size and growth dynamics using a large longitudinal sample of italian manufacturing firms we run standard panel data gibrat regressions suitably expanded to take into account liquidity constraints proxied by cash flow scaled by firm sales moreover we characterize the statistical properties of fi rms size growth age and scaled cashflow distributions pooled data show that i liquidity constraints engender a negative statistically significant effect on growth once one controls for size ii smaller firms grow more and experience more volatile growth patterns after controlling for liquidity constraints iii the stronger liquidity constraints the more size negatively affects firm growth we find that pooled size distributions depart from log normality and growth rates are well approximated by fat tailed tent shaped laplace densities we also study the evolution of growth size distributions over time our exercises suggest that the strong negative impact of liquidity constraints on firm growth which was present in the pooled sample becomes ambiguous when one disaggregates across years finally firms who were young and strongly liquidity constrained at the beginning of the sample period grew persistently more than those who were old and weakly liquidity constrained

innovation and corporate growth in the evolution of the drug industry abstract this work studies the processes of growth of the worlds top 150 pharmaceutical firms on the grounds of an original database which also allows disaggregate analysis at the level of single therapeutical classes and chemical entities our findings show that the industry whose long term evolution is driven by innovation imitation and permanent creation of new markets displays i fat tails in the distribution of growth shocks present at all levels of aggregation with relatively rare big spurs of growth ii a significant autocorrelation of growth rates iii a fall of variance of growth rates with size entirely dependent on corporate diversification patterns in turn plausibly shaped by the competence scope of each firm and iv different lifecycles of diverse types of products and persistent forms of heterogeneity across firms in terms of innovative output which however do not not seem to affect comparative growth performances

long lasting bank relationships and growth of firms a puzzling but consistent result in the empirical literature on banking is that firms with close bank ties do not grow faster than bank independent firms in this paper we reconsider the link between relationship lending and firm growth distinguishing firms by size and expansion contraction conditions the idea is that the beneficial effects of relationship lending on information asymmetries can be compensated by other negative capture risk and externality effects which make relational banks reluctant to support long term growth projects of client firms and that the strength of these compensating effects varies with firm size and health status we explore the influence of long lasting bank relationships on employment and asset growth of a large sample of italian firms the main finding is that relationship lending hampers the efforts of small firms to increase their size while it mitigates the negative growth of troubled medium large enterprises

optimal lending contracts and firm dynamics we develop a general model of lending in the presence of endogenous borrowing constraints borrowing constraints arise because borrowers face limited liability and debt repayment cannot be perfectly enforced in the model the dynamics of debt are closely linked with the dynamics of borrowing constraints in fact borrowing constraints must satisfy a dynamic consistency requirement the value of outstanding debt restricts current access to short term capital but is itself determined by future access to credit this dynamic consistency is not guaranteed in models of exogenous borrowing constraints where the ability to raise short term capital is limited by some prespecified function of debt we characterize the optimal default free contract which minimizes borrowing constraints at all histories and derive implications for firm growth survival leverage and debt maturity the model is qualitatively consistent with stylized facts on the growth and survival of firms comparative statics with respect to technology and default constraints are derived borrowing constraints are an important determinant of firm growth and survival 1 such constraints may arise in connection to the financing of investment opportunities faced by firms or temporary liquidity needs such as those required to survive a recession this paper develops a theory of endogenous borrowing constraints and studies its implications for firm dynamics in our model debt is constrained by the firm s limited liability and option to default a lending contract specifies an initial loan size future financing and a repayment schedule the choice of these variables in turn determines future growth the firm s future borrowing capacity and its ability and willingness to repay hence borrowing constraints and firm dynamics are jointly determined we study this dynamic design problem our model builds on thomas and worral s 1994 model of foreign direct investment at time zero a risk neutral borrower firm or entrepreneur has a project which requires a fixed initial set up cost every period the project yields revenues that increase with the amount of 1 there is considerable evidence suggesting that financing constraints are important determinants of firm dynamics gertler and gilchrist 1994 argue that liquidity constraints may explain why small manufacturing firms respond more to a tightening of monetary policy than do larger manufacturing firms perez quiros and timmermann 2000 show that in recessions smaller firms are more sensitive to the worsening of credit market conditions as measured by higher interest rates and default premia evans and jovanovic 1989 show that the liquidity constraints are essential in the decision to become an entrepreneur fazzari hubbard and petersen 1988 among others view financial constraints as an explanation for the dynamic behaviour of aggregate investment and cabral and mata 1996 are able to fit reasonably well the size distribution of portuguese manufacturing firms by estimating a simple model of financing constraints for surveys see hubbard 1998 and stein 2003

reconciling quantile autoregressions of firm size and variance size scaling the aim of this paper is to understand what economic mechanisms may cause the law of proportionate effect to break down for fast growing and shrinking firms recent evidence has highlighted that the first order coefficients of quantile auto regression of firm size decline across quantiles our theoretical results show that negative variance size scaling is sufficient to yield a decline in quantile auto regression coefficients if firm log size is laplace distributed conditional on size one period ahead however it is sufficient only for declining auto regression coefficients for fast growing firms under asymmetric laplace conditional log size if skewness is decreasing with size in other words if the growth of large firms is less dispersed and more left skewed size is a disadvantage for the growth of fast growers but not necessarily an advantage for fast decliners thus size related determinants of negative growth skewness such as diseconomies of growth market power and managerial attention issues impact on how the lpe is violated using data on dutch manufacturing companies from the business register of enterprises observed between 1994 and 2004 our empirical estimates of quantile regression models confirm the evidence of declining quantile regression coefficients for small medium firms 20 199 employees mainly in the right most quantiles and for the same subsample we find that growth rates variance and skewness are decreasing with size the theoretical propositions of the paper are thus corroborated

firm growth and liquidity constraints evidence from the manufacturing and service sectors in italy abstractwe use a large firm level panel data set to analyse the relevance of liquidity constraints on firm growth in italy in most european countries mainstream financial institutions are scantly able to provide affordable credit facilities to small firms thus these firms are forced to finance their growth almost exclusively through retained earnings we estimate a dynamic version of gibrat law incorporating cash flow as a measure of financial constraints for two different size classes within small and medium size enterprises and for several industries in manufacturing and service sectors the findings show that in general small manufacturing firms have higher growth cash flow sensitivities with respect to medium firms conversely our results highlight for the services a significant heterogeneity in the impact of liquidity constraints on firm growth in particular the sensitivity of growth rates to the cash flow appears relatively high for small firms belonging to knowledge intensive business

evidence on the role of cash flow for investment abstract recent work in macroeconomics argues that imperfections in capital markets may lead to business cycle fluctuations by propagating relatively modest shocks evidence for such a mechanism also known as the financial accelerator consists largely of firm level studies showing that cash flow is an important predictor of investment but this evidence is often viewed with skepticism because cash flow is also a good indicator of investment opportunities in this paper we develop a framework for estimating the extent to which the predictive power of cash flow can be attributed to its role as a fundamental versus its role in alleviating credit frictions for firms with access to commercial paper and bond markets we find that the perfect capital markets model of investment can fully account for the role of cash flow for firms with only limited access to capital markets as indicated by lack of participation in public debt markets however investment appears to be excessively sensitive to fluctuations in cash flow these results thus clarify the role of cash flow in investment equations and provide support for the existence of a financial accelerator

corporate structure liquidity and investment evidence from japanese industrial groups this paper presents evidence suggesting that information and incentive problems in the capital market affect investment we come to this conclusion by examining two sets of japanese firms the first set has close financial ties to large japanese banks that serve as their primary source of external finance and are likely to be well informed about the firm the second set of firms has weaker links to a main bank and presumably faces greater problems raising capital investment is more sensitive to liquidity for the second set of firms than for the first set the analysis also highlights the role of financial intermediaries in the investment process

is there a linear relationship between r d intensity and growth empirical evidence of non high tech vs high tech smes abstract to investigate whether there is a similar relationship between rd and ii financing restrictions are especially important in financing the growth of high tech smes compared with non high tech smes

a model of crises in emerging markets this paper presents a perfect foresight model of speculative attacks on emerging markets credit constrained governments are assumed to have two objectives to accumulate liquid assets in order to self insure against shocks to national consumption and to insure poorly regulated domestic financial markets this policy regime generates endogenous fiscal deficits defined to include the growth of contingent liabilities the model sets out a sequence of yield differentials consistent with capital inflows followed by anticipated speculative attacks the model suggests that a common shock generated capital inflows to emerging markets in asia and latin america after 1989

are business startups debt rationed using a large random sample of u k start ups and a rich data set the paper demonstrates that human capital is the true determinant of survival and that the correlation between financial capital and survival is spurious provision of finance is demand driven with banks supplying funds elastically and business requests governing take up firms self select for funds on the basis of the human capital endowments of the proprietors with better businesses more likely to borrow a reason why others have seemingly identified start up debt gaps may be the failure to test a sufficiently rich empirical model copyright 1996 by royal economic society

does firm size matter evidence on the impact of liquidity constraints on firm investment behavior in germany abstract this paper examines the link between liquidity constraints and investment behavior for german firms of different sizes from 1970 to 1986 results indicate that medium sized firms appear to be more liquidity constrained in their investment behavior than either the smallest or largest firms in the study suggesting that the unique german infrastructure designed to assist the small firm has indeed succeeded in alleviating to some degree such liquidity constraints findings also support the hypothesis that the emerging competition and internationalism which characterized the german financial markets in the 1980s have been improving access to capital for some groups of firms

exchange rate policy options for post crisis southeast asia is there a case for currency baskets following the recent financial crises in southeast asia and elsewhere the perennial issue of the exchange rate policy options for small and open developing countries has resurfaced there seems to be an emerging consensus that the frequency with which soft pegs have been susceptible to speculative attacks in this era of escalating global capital flows has increased pressure for developing countries to adopt corner exchange rate regimes this paper takes issue with this popular one size fits all prescription of exchange rate arrangements for developing countries and explores exchange rate policy options for post crisis southeast asia the principal purpose of this paper is to discuss the case for currency baskets as a general regime in its own right for southeast asia as opposed to being a compromise between the two corner solutions

financing constraints on the size distribution of industrial firms the chinese experience abstractwe investigate whether financing constraints affect the size distribution of chinese industrial firms from 1998 to 2007 although the firm size distribution does not follow zipf distribution in china it is approaching zipf distribution over time in general financing constraints have a robustly negative effect on the size distribution of firms furthermore firms in western china grow significantly more equally after controlling for financing constraints however the effect of financing constraints in central china is significantly negative and the effect of financing constraints on firm size distribution in eastern china is insignificant we thus expect a non linear relationship between financing constraints and firm size distribution

sunk costs firm size and firm growth for several decades the conventional wisdom has been that expected firm growth rates are independent of firm size a property known as gibrat s law however recent empirical work has found a negative relation between firm growth and firm size this paper provides a theoretical explanation for this negative relation in a model of new firm growth where capacity and technology choices involve some degree of sunkness additional empirical implications of the theory of sunk costs are also developed these relate to profit rates tobin s q exit rates degree of sunkness of capacity costs as well as size and growth rates copyright 1995 by blackwell publishing ltd

credit rationing or entrepreneurial risk aversion an alternative explanation for the evans and jovanovic finding abstract evans and jovanovic ej evans d jovanovic b 1989 an estimated model of entrepreneurial choice under liquidity constraints journal of political economy 97 4 808 827 claimed that in a credit market with collateral based lending credit rationing occurs if more collateral increases startups adjusting the model to incorporate uncertainty and decreasing absolute risk aversion this relationship can be explained as a risk averter s response to the lowered riskiness of self over wage employment

financial constraints and firm dynamics this study analyzes the effect of financial constraints fcs on firm dynamics we measure fcs with an official credit rating which captures availability and cost of external resources we find that fcs undermine average firm growth induce anti correlation in growth patterns and reduce the dependence of growth volatility on size fcs are also associated with higher volatility and asymmetries in growth shock distributions preventing young fast growing firms especially from seizing attractive growth opportunities and further deteriorating the growth prospects of already slow growing firms particularly if old the sub diffusive nature of the growth process of constrained firms is compatible with the distinctive properties of their size distribution

causal effect of credit guarantees for small and medium sized enterprises evidence from italy we evaluate the effectiveness of a partial credit guarantee program implemented in a large italian region that aimed to improve the access to credit of small and medium enterprises using unique microdata from a broad set of firms we show that the policy increased the long term loans for beneficiary firms while the total volume of bank loans was unaffected furthermore targeted firms benefited from a substantial decrease in interest rates however there is some evidence that firms are more likely to default as a consequence of the treatment conversely the results do not point to any significant effect on investments