agricultural economics challenges to the profession anniversaries whether related to age marital status or the life of an organization are highly arbitrary anniversaries merely serve to accentuate the obvious and to create benchmarks in the continuum of life the fact that the american agricultural economics association is approaching its seventy fifth year might not merit more than passing comment except that agricultural economics may be moving into the most important and possibly the most turbulent period in the history of the profession the work done by agricultural economists and the decisions made within the profession in the next few years promise to be extraordinarily influential not only in terms of the future of agricultural economics but in terms of the welfare of the entire human family

discounting and underpricing in seasoned equity offers abstract expected discounting in seasoned equity offers is a cost of uncertainty about firm value marketing new shares and acquiring information that raises the offer price stockholders incorporate predictable discounting in stock prices when equity offers are first announced the surprise component of discounting reflecting the lead bank s final adjustment to the offer price releases information that often causes economically large price swings on the offer day disparities between the issuer s closing price and the price suggested in the lead bank s final order book are a primary source of information the discount surprise appears to be used by lead banks to update capital suppliers with that eleventh hour information before they commit their funds

the new economics of agriculture agriculture in the twentieth century was characterized first and foremost by technological innovation that began in the industrialized world and spread to the developing countries as the green revolution this revolution in biological chemical and mechanical technology made it possible for agricultural production to grow faster than the demand for food despite a rapidly growing world population the result was a decline in real agricultural commodity prices throughout this era a trend that is expected by many researchers to continue at least into the early part of the twenty first century antle et al johnson 1998 rosegrant and ringer at the same time virtually all governments intervened in their agricultural sectors through a wide array of policies resulting in a pattern of net taxation of agriculture in low income countries and subsidization of agriculture in high income countries this set of events and the agricultural economics literature that was generated to explain them is what i will refer to here as the economics of agriculture in the twentieth century a stylized demand andsupply model of an agricultural market can be used to represent these relationships with output prices p income i population n factor prices w capital k technology t and government policy g

demand for prepared meals by u s households using the 1987 88 nfcs a heckman two stage procedure was used to estimate the demand for prepared meals by u s households prepared meals were defined as those ready to eat and those ready to cook households headed by younger more educated and time constrained managers were more likely to purchase prepared meals income elasticities ranged from 0 07 to 0 13 while own price elasticities ranged from 0 23 to 0 66 evidence exists to indicate that prepared meals and food away from home are substitutes the presence of teenagers in a household is positively associated with expenditures of prepared meals

stock markets banks and growth panel evidence this paper investigates the impact of stock markets and banks on economic growth using a panel data set for the period 1976 98 and applying recent gmm techniques developed for dynamic panels on balance we find that stock markets and banks positively influence economic growth and these findings are not due to potential biases induced by simultaneity omitted variables or unobserved country specific effects

a key currency view of global imbalances abstract this study divides the world into currency zones according to the co movement of each currency with the key currencies the dollar zone groups economies that produce well over half of global gdp the euro zone now includes almost all of europe and some commodity producers but remains less than half the size of the dollar zone the dollar zone share has shown striking stability despite big shifts across zones over time these include the demise of the sterling zone and the expansion of the dm euro from northwestern europe to europe and beyond global imbalances look very different from a currency perspective in the 2000s the dollar zone s current account improved and became more or less balanced around the time of the global financial crisis gfc even as the us current account plumbed all time lows the dollar zone s net international investment position was also balanced around the time of the gfc thus neither flow nor stock readings on the dollar zone support widespread predictions in the early 2000s of an imminent dollar crash in fact most of the secular widening of current accounts occurred within currency zones where by construction investors bear relatively limited currency risk our account of the dollar s dominance rests not on the us economy s size but rather on the size of the zone with limited currency risk vis a vis the dollar in such a world the rise of another large economy poses the question not of relative size but rather of re alignment of third currencies what if the renminbi becomes a key currency alongside the dollar and the euro already some emerging market currencies are co moving with the renminbi against the dollar on current evidence a renminbi zone would shrink the dollar zone and widen its current account deficit

what can we learn from the grand policy experiment lessons from so2 allowance trading stable url http links jstor org sici sici 0895 3309 28199822 2912 3a3 3c69 3awcwlft 3e2 0 co 3b2 tthe journal of economic perspectives is currently published by american economic association your use of the jstor archive indicates your acceptance of jstor s terms and conditions of use available athttp www jstor org about terms html jstor s terms and conditions of use provides in part that unless you have obtainedprior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content inthe jstor archive only for your personal non commercial use please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work publisher contact information may be obtained athttp www jstor org journals aea html each copy of any part of a jstor transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission the jstor archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world the archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations it is an initiative of jstor a not for profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology for more information regarding jstor please contact support jstor org http www jstor orgtue jun 26 16 25 17 2007

the new food economy consumers farms pharms and science the new food economy is bigger broader faster and more demanding it is a kaleidoscope of foods firms consumers countries contracts and agreements that provide us with a dizzying vision of moving targets we have witnessed the food and agricultural industry move from a set of independent producers and marketing firms to a set of integrated and highly managed supply chains we have witnessed the development of demand chains as consumers and retailers demand differentiated products identity preservation and special food attributes and now we are watching linear demand and supply chains morph into webs of activities and tasks that are undertaken not by well defined or selfcontained firms or households but by multiple parties up and down the food chain at least half of the presidents of this association since 1990 spoke from this podium about new broader definitions of agriculture and about the creativity of us agricultural economists in finding new questions to ask and economic agents to analyze johnston houck armbruster schmway antle warren johnston likened us to black footed ferrets who continually find new ecological niches within which to thrive johnston p 1115 our former presidents saw the new

willingness to pay for environmental practices implications for eco labeling consumer survey data collected in former west and east berlin after the unification of germany are used to address the issue of willingness to pay wtp for foods produced with techniques consistent with environmental stewardship results show differences in the wtp between residents of the two former german states attributed to area of residence residents of eastern city districts were generally less willing to pay a premium for foods produced with environmental friendly methods which suggests that marketing of such foods will be more successful in western districts unless educational efforts can be used to bridge the gap in the stated wtp

u s economic growth since 1870 one big wave it is now 25 years since the growth rate of labor productivity and of multi factor productivity mfp decelerated sharply both in the united states and in most other industrialized nations this productivity slowdown has eluded many attempts to provide single cause explanations slow productivity growth in the past 25 years echoes slow productivity growth in the late 19th century perhaps both were normal and what needs to be explained is not the post 1972 slowdown but rather the post1913 speedup that ushered in the glorious 60 years between world war i and the early 1970 s in which u s productivity growth was much faster than before or after this paper makes a sharp distinction between mfp growth calculated from inputs that combine simple measures of labor hours and the capital stock and growth based on measures that adjust for the changing composition of labor and capital the first step toward an understanding of long term trends is to compare like with like splicing mfp data based on unadjusted inputs prior to 1950 with post1950 data based also on unadjusted inputs as contrasted to the composition adjusted inputs that are now desirably incorporated into our official mfp measures the mfp record prior to 1929 still rests largely on the monumental work of john kendrick 1961 which however is based almost entirely on input quantities that lack any adjustment for changes in composition edward denison 1962 1985 and zvi griliches 1960 pioneered the development of composition adjustments for labor input dale jorgenson and zvi griliches 1967 introduced a framework that treats the problem of composition adjustment in both labor and

on why agriculture declines with economic growth abstract when economic growth is characterised by a slow rise in the demand for food and rapid growth in farm relative to non farm productivity it is understandable that agriculture in a closed economy declines in relative terms as that economy develops but why should agriculture decline in virtually all open growing economies as well including those able to retain a comparative advantage in agricultural products a key part of the answer is that the demand for non tradable goods tends to be income elastic so resources are diverted to their production even in open economies

the solow productivity paradox what do computers do to productivity 1 you don t see computers everywhere in a meaningful economic sense computers and information processing equipment are a relatively small share of gdp and of the capital stock 2 you only thinkyou see computers everywhere government hedonic price indexes for computers fall too fast according to this position and therefore measured real computer output growth is also too fast 3 you may not see computers everywhere but in the industrial sectors where you most see them output is poorly measured examples are finance and insurance which are heavy users of information technology and where even the concept of output is poorly specified 4 whether or not you see computers everywhere some of what they do is not counted in economic statistics examples are consumption on the job convenience better user interface and so forth 5 you don t see computers in the productivity statistics yet but wait a bit and you will this is the analogy with the diffusion of electricity the idea that the productivity implications of a new technology are only visible witlh a long lag 6 you see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics because computers are not as productive as you think here there are many anecdotes such as failed computer system design projects but there are also assertions from computer science that computer and software design has taken a wrong turn 7 there is no paradox some economists are counting innovations and new products on an arithmetic scale when they should count on a logarithmic scale

ipo underpricing and international corporate governance it is well established that a link exists between a country s legal system and the size liquidity and value of its capital markets we study how differences in country level governance affect the underpricing of initial public offerings ipos examining 4462 ipos across 29 countries from 2000 to 2004 we find the surprising result that underpricing is higher in countries with corporate governance that strengthens the position of investors relative to insiders we conjecture that when countries give outsiders more influence ipo issuers underprice more to generate excess demand for the offer which in turn leads to greater ownership dispersion and reduces outsiders incentives to monitor the behavior of corporate insiders in other words underpricing is a cost that insiders pay to maintain control in countries with legal systems designed to empower outsiders consistent with this control motivation for underpricing we find that underpricing has a negative association with post ipo outside blockholdings and a positive association with private control benefits in addition firms whose insiders are entrenched either by majority ownership or by dual class structures do not underprice more in countries with better governance in these firms the ownership structure protects managers from outside influence eliminating the incentive to increase outside ownership dispersion through underpricing

multifractal cross correlations between the world oil and other financial markets in 2012 2017 abstract statistical and multiscaling characteristics of wti crude oil futures prices expressed in us dollar in relation to the most traded currencies as well as to gold futures and to the e mini s p500 futures prices on 5 min intra day recordings in the period january 2012 december 2017 are studied it is shown that in most of the cases the tails of return distributions of the considered financial instruments follow the inverse cubic power law the only exception is the russian ruble for which the distribution tail is heavier and scales with the exponent close to 2 from the perspective of multiscaling the analysed time series reveal the multifractal organization with the left sided asymmetry of the corresponding singularity spectra even more all the considered financial instruments appear to be multifractally cross correlated with oil especially on the level of medium size fluctuations as the multifractal cross correlation analysis carried out by means of the multifractal cross correlation analysis mfcca and detrended cross correlation coefficient q show the degree of such cross correlations is however varying among the financial instruments the strongest ties to the oil characterize currencies of the oil extracting countries strength of this multifractal coupling appears to depend also on the oil market trend in the analysed time period the level of cross correlations systematically increases during the bear phase on the oil market and it saturates after the trend reversal in 1st half of 2016 the same methodology is also applied to identify possible causal relations between considered observables searching for some related asymmetry in the information flow mediating cross correlations indicates that it was the oil price that led the russian ruble over the time period here considered rather than vice versa

recent renminbi policy and currency co movements abstract this study investigates how variation in chinese authorities renminbi management since the august 2015 exchange rate reform maps onto variation in the co movement between the renminbi with regional and other emerging market currencies we first identify three post reform periods of rmb management transition basket management and countercyclical management across these periods the reaction of the official fixing rate to market movements differed significantly the co movement with regional and latin american currencies peaked in the basket period when the management was most multilateral making it possible to discern a renminbi zone in this period by contrast the decline in co movement in the countercyclical management period since may 2017 leaves it premature to speak of a renminbi bloc the dependence of the co movements on renminbi management has important implications for renminbi internationalisation

causes of u s farm commodity programs this paper i s an attempt to explain variations by commodity in producer protection afforded by farm price support programs since the1930s particularly emphasized are theideas that these programs are essentially income redistributional measures and that given political forces the programs are attempts to redistribute efficiently variables associated with the cost to producers of generating political pressure and the social cost deadweight losses of redistribution are both found to be empirically important copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

environment and development theory and international evidence the environmental effects of economic development have significant implications for a wide array of policy questions facing both low and high income countries today internationally agricultural research centers are considering how to incorporate sustainability issues into their research agendas while international lending institutions are taking a close look at the environmental consequences of industrial projects domestically the north american free trade agreement has brought the relationship between economic development and environmental quality to the forefront of u s public policy debate it is surprising that despite the postwar growth of development economics the genesis of environmental economics and the fusion of ideas from both fields into the theme of sustainable development economists have not made much progress in describing the impacts of long term economic growth on environmental quality yet a vigorous public debate has arisen between individuals who maintain that environmental degradation is a necessary outcome of economic growth and those who believe that economic growth and environmental quality go hand in hand this debate was highlighted at the 1992 united nations conference on environment and development in rio de janeiro in part this debate hinges on the properties of the aggregate demand for and supply of environmental quality if the income elasticity of demand for environmental quality or amenities is high then the increased prosperity engendered by economic growth could lead to significantly higher demand for environmental quality proponents of economic growth believe this demand will translate into a higher realized level of quality as both public and private institutions and organi

the dynamo and the computer an historical perspective on the modern productivity paradox the dynamo and the computer an historical perspective on the modern productivity paradox author s paul a david source the american economic review vol 80 no 2 papers and proceedings of the hundred and second annual meeting of the american economic association may 1990 pp 355 361 published by american economic association stable url http www jstor org stable 2006600 accessed 08 12 2010 01 40

funding for agricultural economics needs and strategies for the 1980s public funding for work in agricultural economics teaching research and extension appears to be declining in real terms at the start of the 1980s following two decades of real increases there is a call for reductions in spending by government at all levels a call for less taxes and for public accountability at the same time there are more students in the courses that agricultural economists teach there is a renewed interest in agricultural business curricula graduate study in agricultural economics is attracting new students from the biological and social sciences as well as agriculture the demand for competent applied economists particularly agricultural economists with advanced degrees appears to be growing the anomaly of apparent increases in demand coupled with declining public funding presents a challenge to the profession it should be one for which economists are prepared after all we regularly teach students about economic decision rules for allocating scarce resources among competing ends the political environment requires that we take our classroom lessons seriously and put them in practice in our own operations this paper explores several approaches and strategies for funding work in agricultural economics and more effective use of current resources we begin with an overview of changes in funding during the decade of the 1970s drawing upon secondary data and results of a mail questionnaire sent to agricultural economics department chairmen and administrators in the spring of 1981 we turn then to discussion of the demand current and prospective for services of agricultural economists and the capacity of current institutions to service that demand we conclude with discussion of funding strategies and recommendations on actions which might be pursued by the aaea

china s financial linkages with asia and the global financial crisis abstract this paper presents empirical evidence on asset market linkages between china and asia and how these linkages have shifted during and after the global financial crisis of 2008 2009 we find only weak cross country linkages in longer term interest rates but much stronger linkages in equity markets this finding is consistent with the greater development and liberalization of equity markets relative to bond markets in china as well as increasing business and trade linkages in the region we also find that the strength of the correlation of equity prices changes between china and other asia countries increased markedly during the crisis and has remained high in recent years we attribute this development to greater attentiveness of international investors to china s role as a source and destination of equity finance during the crisis rather than to any greater financial deepening and liberalization as china did not implement any major policy measures during this period by contrast the transmission of u s equity returns to asian countries decreased after the crisis

consumer benefits of labels and bans on gm foods choice experiments with swedish consumers the european union has been relatively cautious about using biotechnology in food production a label regime combined with the right of individual member states to ban introduction of new genetically modified gm strains means that gm food products in effect are banned in many countries we show how it is possible to empirically test whether a ban can be motivated by reference to potential negative externalities this is followed up by results from a choice experiment we cannot reject the hypothesis of equal wtp for a ban and a labeling scheme

conflict on the commons natural resource entitlements the public interest and agricultural economics i began this odyssey toward a presidential address reflecting on certain problems i see out there in the real world what they mean and what lessons they suggest for us as ag economists that is the strength of our discipline and profession an anchor in real events it is more useful to start with problems and seek order with economics than to start with a principle or method and shop for a problem there are battles being waged in the u s countryside that speak volumes for us as applied social scientists it has to do with private discretion the right of individuals with access to natural resources to do what they want when they want whatever the impacts on others it has to do with power entitlement economic and social change interdependence vision for the future sense of the commons in private action some farm leaders have been saying very intemperate things lately about property rights and alleged government takeovers as is usually the case in the political economics of who may do what to whom verbal symbols encase larger ideas and become the proxies in battle terms and phrases like independence freedom the public interest my god given right the farming way of life the rural myth market distortions greedy landowners and rabid environmentalists dominate the debate there is disarray in rural institutions rules that create rights and obligations in use of natural resources are simply out of step with general economic and social changes underway in rural america i have also had concerns about us ag economists particularly research and education types in land grant universities and government we seem less open adaptable and expansive than we were even ten years ago we were pushing the boundaries of our discipline and problem set now there are pressures to go back to basics perhaps it is the economic crisis in academia with fewer jobs shrinking departments no raises little wonder we are skittish then it dawned on me we are behaving exactly like farmers and other property owners we are building fences trying to scare off the bureaucrats declaring our rights fighting to preserve disciplinary purity this paper is about property rights the public interest and our particular piece of agricultural economics real estate in the path of economic and social change i will examine selected natural resource institutional issues for insight about our discipline and profession the parallels lead to certain recommendations essential

anatomy of initial public offerings of common stock initial public offerings of common stocks ipos are typically underpriced in this paper the author develops and tests the hypothesis that underpricing serves as a form of insurance against legal liability and the associated damages to the reputations of investment bankers the empirical results based on samples of ipos that were brought to the market before and after the securities act of 1933 provide considerable support for the implicit insurance hypothesis specifically gross underpricing and market segmentation between prestigious and fringe investment bankers in originating unseasoned new issues appear to be peculiar to the post 1933 era a number of studies have documented that unseasoned common stocks typically garner large positive abnormal returns during a short period following the initial offering in his recent review of the empirical evidence on the initial returns of common stock offerings smith 36 concluded that the returns from offer price to after market price have exceeded fifteen percent his calculations did not include some of the earlier results obtained by mcdonald and fisher 23 and logue 20 when their samples are combined with those in smith s review the initial returns of unseasoned equity offerings appear even larger over seventeen percent these results imply that underwriters consistently offer the securities at substantial discounts from their values that are set in the after market in other words initial public offerings ipos appear to be underpriced what is even more puzzling is the fact that in some time periods underpricing appears to be systematically larger than in other periods ibbotson and jaffe 15 and ritter 29 have documented that during the postwar era there have been a number of periods in which the initial returns of common stocks have been extremely high ritter for example reported that the average return from the offer price to the first after market price was over forty eight percent for ipos in 1980 and 1981 1 similarly the initial returns of unseasoned issues of common stock brought to the market in 1950 1951 1961 and 1968 were unusually large these periods in which ipos were grossly underpriced are referred to as the hotissue markets why do investment bankers underprice ipos why do issuers

coordinating research extension and outreach in agricultural economics tension in our profession is characterized by changing financial constraints increasing diversity of subject matter and more pressing issuedriven demands by the users of our products and services under these complex conditions the organization and coordination of research and extension take on greater importance the goal is a responsive system that can adapt in a timely effective fashion to new social and economic problems however this land grant usda partnership traditionally called research and extension but actually including all service and outreach activities has some major gaps inefficiencies and misalignments the effects of which are magnified by financial constraints and downsizing improved mechanisms are needed to generate different incentives and motivations for scientists and educators enhance information flows achieve more effective control and monitoring and increase the prospects for overall goal attainment most departments agencies and organizations in our profession are attempting to adjust to the current environment in various ways and to varying degrees my objective is to view the situation through a different lens utilizing the new economics of organizations along with agency relationships in order to evaluate vertical coordination of the research and extension

computers productivity and input substitution i introduction the last two decades has been a puzzling time for many productivity analysts while computer prices fell at extraordinary rates and firms invested hundreds of billions of dollars in new computer equipment aggregate productivity growth remained sluggish this computer productivity paradox has generated a large literature that examines the economic impact of the computer revolution 1 this paper offers a simple solution to the computer productivity paradox by making careful distinction between computers as an output from one sector and an input to other sectors data for 35 manufacturing and service sectors for 1947 1991 show that sectoral differences are crucial in understanding the impact of computers aggregate analysis is inappropriate since it obscures basic distinctions between a shifting production function in the computer producing sector multi factor productivity growth and movements along production functions in the computer using sectors substitution and capital accumulation once these differences are isolated the growth impact of computers is readily observable the computer producing sector experienced fundamental technological progress and now produces cheaper better computers the sectoral data show this as rapid multi factor productivity mfp growth for 1973 1991 although aggregate mfp growth remains below historic averages the computer producing sector has clearly done its part mfp growth in this sector is many times the economy average and has contributed over one third of aggregate mfp growth for 19811991 the sectoral detail shows that the slowdown in aggregate productivity would have been much more severe were it not for such large mfp gains in the computer producing sector for the other sectors of the economy computers affect growth in a more traditional although less glamorous way when the price of real computing power fell so dramatically in the 1970s and 1980s firms responded by substituting away from relatively expensive labor and non computer capital and investing heavily in cheap computers for these sectors the computer revolution affects output growth not by raising mfp but by inducing firms to accumulate computers at extraordinary rates real computer services for example grew in excess of 20 per year in 14 out of 35 sectors for 1973 1991 although virtually all sectors are rapidly accumulating computer equipment computers remain small in levels in 1991 for example computer investment was only 10 of private fixed investment so the growth contribution of computers remains small relative to sectoral aggregates of labor and non computer capital the rapid rates of accumulation however are clearly making computers a more important source of growth across sectors with this heavy investment also came the wide spread expectation that computers would fundamentally alter the way firms operate and lead to higher mfp the reality has been very different as the most computer intensive sectors show steep declines in mfp growth after 1973 with three quarters of all computers concentrated in three service sectors trade fire and other services however this finding must be interpreted with caution as griliches 1994 notes output in these sectors is largely unmeasurable and thus mfp growth will be understated nonetheless it is quite reasonable that even computer using sectors where output is easier to measure show no mfp gains computer investment creates a capital input that enters the production function like any other purchased input since constant quality deflators embody productivity improvements in investment the direct impact is seen through the rapid capital accumulation only if the adoption of computers leads to production externalities or spillovers would computer investment also increase mfp growth the data however show no evidence of this ii computers and growth the national statistics most clearly show the computer revolution in the investment data

ipo mechanisms monitoring and ownership structure1 this paper analyzes the e ect of di erent ipo mechanisms on the structure of share ownership and explores the role of underpricing and rationing in determining investors shareholdings we focus on the agency problem that results when large institutions are the only investors capable of monitoring the firm whereas small shareholders free ride on these activities the major conclusion is that some well known aspects of ipos may be explained as rational responses by the issuer to the existence of regulatory constraints in public capital markets there is a two stage o ering mechanism in which the investment banker acting in the interests of the issuer optimally rations the allotment of shares to small investors in order to capture the benefits associated with better monitoring by institutions importantly in our model the existence of underpricing and oversubscription is an indication that the issuer has received a higher ex ante price than would have been obtained through a competitive walrasian type o ering process 1998 elsevier science s a all rights reserved jel classification g24 g32 g38

currency composition of foreign exchange reserves abstract this paper analyses the factors that govern the choice of the currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves first we introduce a new panel dataset on the key currencies in foreign exchange reserves of about 60 economies in the 1999 2017 period second we show that the currency composition of reserves relates strongly to the co movement of the domestic currency with key currencies and the currency invoicing of trade these factors represent attributes of the dollar or the euro rather than of the united states or the euro area they exert about equal effects on the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves we demonstrate that these findings are robust to a host of other possible factors

the market for evaluations recent developments in computer networks have driven the cost of distributing information virtually to zero creating extraordinary opportunities for sharing product evaluations the authors present pricing and subsidy mechanisms that operate through a computerized market and induce the efficient provision of evaluations the mechanisms overcome three major challenges first evaluations which are public goods are likely to be underprovided second an inefficient ordering of evaluators may arise and third the optimal quantity of evaluations depends on what is learned from the initial evaluations

structural change and the recognition of diversity perestroika is not a new reality for north american agriculture structural adjustments in agriculture in rural communities and regions and in economic activities associated with the production and trading of agricultural commodities are made frequently in response to recurrent changes in economic and political conditions increased interdependence of agriculture with other sectors within the national economy and worldwide tutwiler and elliott amplifies the need for understanding the consequences of structural change including the organization and control of the sector macroeconomic and international external sources have also been ac

megatrends affecting agriculture implications for agricultural economics u s agriculture has always been susceptible to changes occurring within the agricultural sector and in other sectors of the economy but one would be hard pressed to identify another time in the history of u s agriculture when there are so many changes occurring so rapidly with such large potential effects naisbitt refers to changes which are critical restructurings as megatrends this paper is concerned with the megatrends most affecting u s agriculture and their relevancy to agricultural economics the identification of major trends affecting u s agriculture is largely judgmental furthermore there are numerous ways in which trends in specific factors may be aggregated into broader and more encompassing megatrends in this paper the following five megatrends are considered to be the most critical ones affecting u s agriculture 1 changes in the domestic consumption of food and agricultural products a shift from animal to plant products 2 macroism and internationalism domestic and international economic interdependencies of u s agriculture 3 technological change accelerated dynamics in an economy in transition from an industrial to an informational economy 4 structural change largeness and fewness of farms and agribusiness firms 5 environmentalism concerns about re

does the new economy measure up to the great inventions of the past abstract during the four years 1995 99 u s productivity growth experienced a strong revival and achieved growth rates exceeding that of the golden age of 1913 72 accordingly many observers have declared the new economy to be an industrial revolution even more important than the second industrial revolution of 1860 1900 which made the golden age of productivity growth possible this paper dissects the recent productivity revival subtracts out a cyclical component and concludes that there is no revival of the productivity growth trend in the 88 percent of the private economy lying outside of the durables manufacturing sector the paper explains this surprising finding by pointing to limitations in computers and the internet in comparison with the great inventions of the past

the behavior of currencies during risk off episodes abstract episodes of increased global risk aversion also known as risk off episodes have become more frequent and severe since 2007 during these episodes currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns as the japanese yen swiss franc and u s dollar appreciate against other g 10 and emerging market currencies the pattern of these moves can be explained by a combination of fundamental factors such as the nominal interest rate the international investment position and measures of exchange rate misalignment and market liquidity factors such as bid offer spreads and restrictions on international capital flows we also find that currency performance in a risk off episode has become more related to a currency s yield and relationship to broader risks in recent years

the logic of testing structural change in meat demand a methodological analysis and appraisal in the past two decades the profession has expended valuable resources testing structural change in meat demand with mixed results overlooked to date is a fundamental methodological problem that transcends all methods of testing for structural change in this study a methodological framework is used to show that there is no valid test of structural change because of this result additional criteria from the methodology literature are used to evaluate the literature on structural change in meat demand and to provide suggestions for fertile areas of future research

risk dependence of covar and structural change between oil prices and exchange rates a time varying copula model abstract this paper analyses the dynamic dependence between wti crude oil and the exchange rates of the united states and china taking structural changes of dependence into account by using six time varying copula models upside and downside conditional values at risk covars are introduced specifically to measure the upward and downward risk dependences between oil prices and exchange rates the findings indicate a structural break point of dependence exists between daily or weekly crude oil and the us dollar index the dependence between crude oil and the rmb exchange rate is faintly positive with lower tail dependence while the dependence between crude oil and the us dollar index is significantly negative with lower upper and upper lower tail dependence finally the covars results show that there is significant risk spillover from crude oil to chinese and the us exchange rate markets furthermore the spillover effect is significantly asymmetry in chinese exchange rate market in response to rising and falling oil returns while the asymmetry of spillover effect for the us dollar index is not significant

what do chinese macro announcements tell us about the world economy we examine the effect of scheduled macroeconomic announcements made by china on world financial and commodity futures markets all announcements related to chinese manufacturing and industrial output move stock markets energy and industrial commodities as well as commodity currencies news about chinese domestic consumption leaves most markets unaffected suggesting that market participants view the announcements primarily as a signal of the state of the global economy rather than merely of china s domestic demand the market response to unexpectedly strong output announcements is not consistent with investors being concerned about tightening of chinese macroeconomic policy instead the world markets view strong chinese output as a rising tide that lifts all boats jel classification e44 g14 g15

industrialization and the demand for mineral commodities abstract this paper uses a new data set that begins in 1840 to investigate how industrialization affects the derived demand for mineral commodities i establish that there is substantial heterogeneity in the long run effect of manufacturing output on demand across five commodities a one percent increase in per capita manufacturing output leads to an approximately 1 5 percent increase in aluminum demand and a roughly 1 percent rise in copper demand estimated elasticities for lead tin and zinc are below unity my results suggest that the experience of japan and south korea s industrialization for example may be used to infer the impact of china s industrialization on future demand for metals the results imply substantial differences across commodities with regard to future demand adjustment to equilibrium takes 7 13 years which helps explain the long duration of commodity price fluctuations

graduate education in economics after the cogee report discussion the ability of a scientific discipline to prosper and continue to contribute to knowledge is predicated on its ability to explain and potentially predict phenomena occurring in the natural and man made world a science that is static in its ability to explain or refine its explanation of interesting and or useful phenomena is a science in decline in some sense one can measure the success of a science by the degree to which it is used by society either directly or indirectly and one good measure of the health of a scientific discipline is the degree to which the adoption of newly discovered knowledge exceeds the depreciation in use value of previously adopted material we can measure the demand for economic knowledge in a variety of ways including the price paid for consulting fees the average wage of economists compared to other professionals with similar characteristics and levels of resources devoted to training and the number of individuals interested in learning about economics at high school college and other levels a very indirect measure of the value of economic knowledge is provided by the number of students who pursue economics as a degree particularly at the graduate level rational students predicting the future earnings and personal utility derived from a degree in economics will choose economics as a ma

an assessment of the agricultural economics profession i u i r t department of agricultural and resource econol 1ics division of agriculture and natural resources le niversity of california d 8cvlceltvc j working paper no 509 an assessment of tiie agricultural economics profession by richard e just and gordon c rausser california agricultural experiment station giannini foundation of agricultural economics august 1989

litigation risk intermediation and the underpricing of initial public offerings we formally examine the role of litigation risk in initial public offering ipo pricing the underwriter s pricing decision trades off current revenue against expected future litigation costs both of which are increasing in the ipo price given a time consistency constraint and rational expectations on the part of investors however the standard litigation risk argument does not lead to equilibrium underpricing we develop a richer model that provides sufficient conditions under which there is equilibrium underpricing the issuer s choice of employing an underwriter versus floating the ipo on its own is examined and various testable implications of the model are developed article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

equity issue specific versus broad regulatory protections against expropriation risk international evidence from seos abstract we compare non issue specific broad investor protections against expropriation by firm s insiders with regulations that specifically protect investors of new equity issues issue specific since in nation regulations rarely change and are homogenous for all firms it is difficult to compare issue and non issue specific investor protection mechanisms in country specific studies we utilize cross country differences in regulations to study the relative importance of issue specific and broad regulatory protections using data on seasoned equity offerings seo we find that seo underpricing is related to broad protections in particular seo underpricing is negatively positively related with the strength of ex post ex ante anti self dealing laws independent of broad protections seo underpricing is unaffected by issue specific investor protections that is neither by disclosure requirements imposed on equity issuers nor by equity issue specific liability rights conferred on investors interactions between broad protections and issue specific protections indicate issue specific protections reduce seo underpricing only in countries with strong broad protections

why does the law matter investor protection and its effects on investment finance and growth investor protection is associated with greater investment sensitivity to q and lower investment sensitivity to cash flow finance plays a role in causing these effects in countries with strong investor protection external finance increases more strongly with q and declines more strongly with cash flow we further find that q and cash flow sensitivities are associated with ex post investment efficiency investment predicts growth and profits more strongly in countries with greater q sensitivities and lower cash flow sensitivities the paper s findings are broadly consistent with investor protection promoting accurate share prices reducing financial constraints and encouraging efficient investment in this paper we study how investor protection affects firm level resource allocations our analyses center on two hypotheses our first hypothesis is that stock prices more strongly predict both investment and external finance in countries with stronger investor protection laws tobin 1969 shows in a frictionless setting that marginal q predicts real investment in this framework high marginal q firms should all else equal also raise the most capital as these firms invest more we use average q q as a proxy for marginal q and test whether investment and external finance are more sensitive to q in countries with stronger investor protection laws

the nairu unemployment and monetary policy this paper examines the precision of conventional estimates of the nairu and the role of the nairu and unemployment in forecasting inflation the authors find that although there is a clear empirical phillips relation the nairu is imprecisely estimated forecasts of inflation are insensitive to the nairu and there are other leading indicators of inflation that are at least as good as unemployment this suggests deemphasizing the nairu in public discourse about monetary policy and instead drawing on a richer variety of leading indicators of inflation