the environmental effects of agricultural trade liberalization in latin america an interpretation abstract the trade and environment debate has focused attention on the possible contradiction between promoting free markets while meeting domestic environmental objectives this paper takes a view from the south recent econometric models predict net effects of expanded agricultural trade to be positive for the global environment yet further pressure on degraded resources and marginal farmers and a reinforcement of sectoral policies that benefit commercial export crop growers as opposed to food producers may make increased trade more of a bane than a blessing for developing countries in the context of emerging regional trading blocks in latin america nafta and mercosur removal of trade barriers between participating nations has led to dislocation of production whose localized impacts it is hoped would be resolved through reconversion of agriculture in affected subregions it may be however that internalization of socio environmental costs of such dislocation would indicate that production despite competitive disadvantages would best have been left where it was to gain a better empirical understanding of the links between agricultural trade policy and the environment will require prediction of ecosystem stresses anticipated from alterations in how producers grow crops in specific geophysical settings rather than reliance on stylized facts

spurious volatility in historical unemployment data this paper shows that the stabilization of the unemployment rate between the pre 1930 and post 1948 eras is an artifact of improvements in data collection procedures prewar methods are used to construct postwar unemployment data that are consistent with the historical data the constructed postwar series is nearly as volatile as the pre 1930 unemployment data the constructed postwar data are systematically more volatile than the actual postwar data because the cyclical behavior of the labor force and productivity are misspecified in the construction procedures the relationship between the actual and constructed postwar unemployment series is used to construct new historical data

input versus emission taxes environmental taxes in a mass balance and transaction costs perspective the standard policy recommendation to limit pollution is to use taxes or tradeable quotas on emissions a general emphasis on emissions does not however take proper account of the characteristics of the material flow through the economy an analysis of the relationships between transaction costs and features of this flow shows that it may be less costly to tax inputs into the economy the paper focuses on the advantages of a mass flow perspective in environmental economics the trade off between the precision of an environmental regulation and its implementation costs and develops criteria for choosing between input and emission related instruments

labour supply estimation and public policy abstract economists devote considerable energies towards refining their econometric techniques to overcome difficulties connected with conducting empirical research despite advances in technique it is not clear whether further refinement in this direction is worthwhile for policy purposes it may be that no further amount of statistical adjustment of inadequate data will increase understanding and that better data is simply necessary to add to our knowledge but rarely is sufficient credit paid to new forms of data in short econometric technique is emphasized to the neglect of data innovation as if new data were merely lying about waiting for an ingenious suggestion for use this paper surveys advances of the last twenty five years in estimating labour supply for policy purposes with a view towards appreciating the relative contribution of both improvements in econometric technique as well as developments of new data after briefly detailing the key parameters which economists have sought to estimate we describe the early first generation research circa 1970 which is plagued by problems of unobservable variables measurement errors truncation and selectivity bias and non linear budget constraints second generation research constitute attempts to resolve one or more of these difficulties and the respective contribution of econometric technique and new data is acknowledged and assessed including the contribution of data generated by large scale social experiments in which participants are randomly assigned to different guaranteed income plans and their labour supply behaviour measured

third world debt and tropical deforestation abstract the deforestation and degradation of tropical forests are taking place at an extremely rapid pace according to the food and agriculture organization fao the estimated annual rate of tropical deforestation during the 1981 1985 period was 113 846 square kilometers or 0 6 of the 1981 total forested area the implications of the loss of these forests are staggering myers n 1989 deforestation rates in tropical forests and their climatic implications friends of the earth london tropical forests are extremely rich ecosystems which support a disproportionately large share of the world s plant and animal species forests play a crucial role in both nutrient and hydrological cycling and may provide sustainable economic benefits through managed harvesting of timber and the collection of non timber products such as fruits nuts and rubber also deforestation is a significant source of global warming through its effects on the global carbon cycle this paper focuses on the relationship between debt and deforestation examining conceptual and empirical arguments that debt is a source of deforestation pressure our study develops a behavioral model which suggests that debt can lead to myopic behavior leading to deforestation rates that may not be optimal in the long run but are necessary in the short run to meet current constraints then country by country data on debt deforestation and other variables are analyzed with regression analysis it is shown that debt is significantly correlated with deforestation under a wide variety of assumptions and specifications our results indicate that debt is an important factor in the deforestation of tropical countries there are certainly other sources of deforestation both micro and macroeconomic which may vary significantly from country to country however we focus on debt because of its dominant role in the economies of developing countries and because of the increased use of debt for nature swaps the link between debt and deforestation that is suggested in this paper implies that debt for nature swaps may have a dual effect on deforestation first the contractual agreement is designed to preserve forests as part of the swap second the reduction in debt may itself reduce the pressure to deforest although this indirect effect is small our research provides evidence that reducing debt reduces deforestation which may be an argument to offer deforesting third world countries some form of debt relief and to utilize more fully debt for nature swaps as a tool for preserving environmental quality

assessing the case for social experiments rs ecent academic debates pit two alternative approaches to policy evaluation against one another the first is the experimental approach based on the random assignment of accepted program applicants to a recipient or treatment group and a non recipient or control group the second is the nonexperimental or econometric approach that uses a variety of microdata sources statistical methods and behavioral models to compare the outcomes of participants in social programs with those of nonparticipants the central question addressed in this paper is whether or not randomized social experiments aid in securing answers to basic questions about the evaluation of social programs there are many distinct and complementary approaches to the study of the impact of public policy including full general equilibrium analysis of policy impacts tinbergen 1956 auerbach and kotlikoff 1987 shoven and whalley 1992 kydland and prescott 1991 and less ambitious partial equilibrium microeconomic structural research programs such as those designed to estimate the impact of taxes on labor supply both approaches offer answers to many interesting counterfactual policy questions but their credibility rests critically on the quality of the empirical input used to generate their answers

the north american free trade agreement an ecological economic synthesis for the united states and mexico abstract the prospect of a north american free trade agreement nafta has alarmed environmentally concerned professionals and citizens because of potential for exacerbated environmental destruction in each country the concern in the trade and business community is that provisions for environmental protection would hobble the trade agreement and could effectively negate the positive economic benefits the purpose of this paper is to consider the various environmental and economic implications of nafta and suggest policies that should allow for both a functional nafta and environmental protection this paper summarizes the various potential environmental impacts along with existing free trade mechanisms for environmental protection it evaluates the rationale for a transition from current free trade doctrines to those of sustainable free trade also recommended are several suggestions including the creation of a companion north american environmental protection treaty naept this treaty would contain trade related policies beneficial to the environment but inappropriate to a trade agreement it would include short term expansion of gatt articles for protection of the environment and longer term transformation of gatt into a general agreement on trade and the environment gate a form of countervailing duties called recompensing duties and a form of pigovian tax called a retributive environmental impact rei tax designed to ease adverse social economic and environmental impacts during the transitional period of upward harmonization of standards are proposed specific recommendations for nafta naept and gate are provided

models of currency crises with self fulfilling features the discomfort a government suffers from speculation against its currency determines the strategic incentives of speculators and the scope for multiple currency market equilibria after describing an illustrative model in which high unemployment may cause an exchange rate crisis with self fulfilling features the paper reviews some other self reinforcing mechanisms recent econometric evidence seems consistent with the practical importance of these mechanisms

ecologically accelerated trade liberalisation a set of disciplines for environment and trade agreements abstract a set of disciplines strict guidelines for environmental agreements that affect trade objectives and trade agreements that affect environmental objectives is developed recognising the advantages of further liberalising world trading conditions and encouraging countries to pursue national solutions to environmental problems a new form of international agreement is proposed they deal with products that are like in every way except for the way they are produced such agreements would simultaneously accelerate progress towards more liberal trading conditions improve environmental quality and give economic advantage to those who pursue vigorous tightly targeted domestic environmental policies these ecologically accelerated trade liberalisation agreements eatlas are perceived to be of particular interest to nations not well placed to enter into a regional free trade agreement or join a common market the case for a gatt code or protocol on production process standards and international agreements on the environment is examined

can training and employment subsidies combat european unemployment active policy evaluation problems methods and results european countries with poorly performing labour markets and labour market institutions conducive to high unemployment also feature considerable expenditures on active labour market policy and such policies are emphasized by the european union s employment strategy however the practice of these programmes evaluation is much less well developed in europe than in the united states we outline key issues facing such evaluation and offer a review and formal assessment of european evaluation studies over the last three decades we find that programme effects are very heterogeneous across types of interventions and target groups that training and job search assistance can be effective and that the young among the unemployed are typically difficult to assist jochen kluve and christoph m schmidt

international trade and environmental quality a survey abstract international trade has been incorporating various aspects of environmental issues since 1970 the extent to which environmental problems might affect many facets of trade or vice versa has been the subject of considerable debate over these years in this article we have attempted to establish some of the links between international trade and environmental quality by performing a comprehensive literature review we discuss issues such as establishing direct and indirect effects of international trade on environmental quality effects of trade on economic development environmental quality and energy and their relation with each other and finally the role of governments and international organizations in this context studies have so far revealed some linkages between trade and environment through conventional trade theory however interactions between international trade and types of pollution their sink and assimilative capacity need to be analyzed using a general equilibrium approach currently very little knowledge and agreement on the nature of interactions between trade theories development process and environmental quality exist existing studies have shown that the structure of environmental regulations should be modified to reflect the existence of trade under imperfect competition therefore further research on the interaction between new trade theory and environmental regulation is needed also theoretical and quantitative analysis regarding the effects of environmental regulations on competitiveness and location decision is needed the intensity and type of environmental measures vary across issues and countries therefore harmonizing environmental measures creates an inefficient atmosphere and to assume that trade restrictions will either improve or reverse the environmental damages is a serious mistake given the dynamic and intricate nature of the problem trade and environment debate continues despite vast research and poses a challenge for researchers and policy makers in the foreseeable future

an analysis of the impact of ceta programs on participants earnings this paper provides estimates of the impact of ceta programs on participants postprogram earnings using matched comparison groups developed from a nearestneighbor matching technique our basic results indicate that ceta has a negative and statistically significant earnings impact for adult men and a modest but not statistically significant positive earnings impact for adult women this pattern however is quite sensitive to whether individuals without recent labor market attachment are included in the comparison group and to how close to the date of enrollment preprogram earnings are measured

trade environment and development the issues in perspective abstract this special issue on trade and the environment brings together a number of papers that are constructively critical of the conventional economic wisdom on the topic we think that this criticism is warranted because of the decidely uncritical way in which free trade has been advocated in much of the literature and especially in policy the papers analyse the validity of the underlying assumptions on which the conventional wisdom is based and provide suggestions for ways to facilitate trade that is also adequately protective of the environment sustainability and other social values in this introductory piece we discuss trade the environment and sustainability summarizing arguments in the papers included in this issue and adding a few additional points not covered by them

issues relating to agricultural pricing policies and their analysis in developing countries abstract agricultural pricing policies in developing countries are often the result of complex interactions between producer consumer and merchant groups and their relative effectiveness in influencing government decision making even within governments various ministries often have opposing views in this environment one of the contributions a policy analyst can make is to attempt to quantify the effects of different policy options this permits a more informed discussion which hopefully leads to better decision making and an improved incentive environment many analyses of agricultural pricing policies have used the standard partial equilibrium analysis where no linkages between commodity markets were considered in this paper we have considered cross price effects also we have discussed issues relating to other adjustments refinements of the standard method so that a practitioner not familiar with the various methods can form an opinion of what the options are and what adjustments may be appropriate for a particular case in question the adjustments relate to overvaluation of currencies input price distortions differences in the degree of distortions between producers and consumers and variability of border prices the inclusion of cross price elasticities was important for assessing production consumption and trade effects for argentina but for the other countries it resulted in only somewhat improved accuracy the adjustment for exchange rates had a large impact in egypt and was important for other countries as well this underlines the importance of exchange rates as key variables for agricultural pricing policies in general the numbers show that the traditional taxation policies of agricultural products in the sample of developing countries is somewhat less widespread than in the past these policies however continue to favor consumers over producers with significant losses for some of the latter the large size of welfare losses especially compared to efficiency losses highlights the importance of correcting distorted prices that adversely affect the poorest sections of society also the usual government objective of taxing producers to raise revenues is frequently defeated by the large subsidies provided to consumers for the partitioner for whom time is often of the essence the assessment of welfare effects using the partial equilibrium method may provide reasonably good first cut estimates of the order of magnitude of the impact of distortions but often these base case estimates can and should be adjusted for a number of possible factors the analyst needs to determine how important accurate estimates of key variables are to the policy makers he or she then needs to compare the costs involved in generating or gathering the data and doing the calculations with the benefits of a broader and more accurate analysis of the distortionary effects of the particular case in question

agri environmental policy and urban development patterns a general equilibrium analysis this paper investigates the spatial effects that the provision of environmental public goods have on residential location choices in a suburban context specifically a spatial general equilibrium framework is developed to analyze the consequences of adopting an agri environmental policy promoting the provision of positive farming externalities we use a static monocentric model of an open city where agricultural bid rents and agricultural amenities vary endogenously in space and where the positive externalities associated with agricultural production are valued by households consistent with empirical evidence of the potential side effects that conservation policies may have in terms of urbanization patterns and land price changes we show that under certain conditions implementing an agri environmental policy may promote additional suburban development moreover we demonstrate that the emergence of disconnected suburban areas may be significantly influenced by the location of land regulated by an agri environmental policy finally we discuss distributional aspects and show that while introducing an agri environmental policy has a negative impact on most residential land value it can have positive effects on farmland and residential land located within the regulated areas suggesting the non neutrality of such policies regarding the agents assets

agricultural externalities and environmental regulation evaluating good practice in citrus production economic activity takes place in a scenario characterized by an increasing number of environmental regulations aimed at bringing under control the emission of contaminating wastes in this paper we evaluate the impact of transforming a code of good practice in nitrogen fertilization on spanish citrus fruit farms into an environmental regulation of compulsory fulfilment using data envelopment techniques we calculate unrestricted and environmentally regulated short run maximum profits both profit values are then used to compute an index of the cost of regulation our results suggest that the cost of shifting from a merely recommended practice to a binding rule is low on average the loss of profit computed is only about 4 furthermore we find that farms overall efficiency is low and that the current gap between observed and regulated fertilization practices could be overcome by improving overall management efficiency

evaluating welfare reform waivers under section 1115 beginning in 1962 section 1115 of the social security act allowed the u s secretary of health and human services to waive specific provisions of the act within individual states allowing them to implement welfare experiments or demonstration projects to reduce welfare recipiency ease transitions into the labor market for welfare clients or otherwise advance the objectives of the aid to families with dependent children afdc program the period between 1987 and 1996 was an especially active time for welfare reform waiver applications each section 1115 waiver application required a plan for evaluating the effects of the proposed changes in the afdc program this period of active welfare reform and experimentation accompanied by a rigorous evaluation component held the promise of an unparalleled opportunity to examine and document the effects of proposed welfare reform measures in this paper we review the section 1115 welfare reform and evaluation activity conducted by states during the bush and clinton administrations ending in august 1996 when the personal responsibility and work opportunity reconciliation act was passed by congress we base the review on publicly available data from the u s department of health and human services and on interviews we conducted with both state project managers and evaluators from each of the 44 states that had received section 1115 welfare reform waivers between 1992 and the passage of the 1996 welfare reform act

contractionary devaluation risk evidence from the free silver movement 1878 1900 i identify significant effects of devaluation risk on interest rates and output using us silver coinage policy news between 1878 and 1900 as clean shocks to exchange rate expectations the free sil

curbing agricultural exceptionalism the eu s response to external challenge from 1948 to 1994 the agricultural sector was afforded special treatment in the gatt we analyse the extent to which this agricultural exceptionalism was curbed as a result of the gatt uruguay round agreement on agriculture discuss why it was curbed and finally explore the implication of this for eu policy making we argue that in particular two major changes in gatt institutions brought about restrictions on agricultural exceptionalism first the uruguay round was a single undertaking in which progress on other dossiers was contingent upon an outcome on agriculture the eu had keenly supported this new decision rule in the gatt within the eu this led to the macsharry reforms of the common agricultural policy cap in 1992 paving the way for a trade agreement on agriculture within the gatt second under the new quasi judicial dispute settlement procedure countries are expected to bring their policies into conformity with wto rules or face retaliatory trade sanctions this has brought about a greater willingness on the part of the eu to submit its farm policy to wto disciplines

social employment of welfare recipients in belgium an evaluation in belgium welfare agencies receive a subsidy to employ welfare recipients for a period sufficiently long to entitle them to unemployment benefits we investigate the effect of this programme on the exit rate from welfare we propose a grouping iv estimator of the programme effect that eliminates selection bias the estimator is consistent even if the selection into the programme depends on the average unobserved characteristics of welfare recipients in a region and in a welfare duration interval without correction for selectivity we find that the programme reduces welfare dependence but after correction this conclusion is reversed

ranking farms with a composite indicator of sustainability the assessment of sustainability at farm level has been growing in popularity over the last few years this article contributes to this line of research by building up composite indicators for different facets social economic environmental and global of farm sustainability using a methodological approach that combines data envelopment analysis dea and multicriteria decision making mcdm methods and assigns common weights to each individual sustainability indicator this approach is applied to a database of 163 farms located in the campos county a region belonging to the dry lands of the spanish northern plateau using 12 individual indicators of sustainability our findings show that both economic and environmental composite sustainability indicators are positively correlated but that this is not the case for the social indicator we also check the influence of a set of variables on farm sustainability using bootstrapping statistical techniques and showing that increasing farm size membership in agricultural cooperatives and farmers medium and upper agricultural specific technical education all exert a significant positive influence on sustainability these results provide clues for policy makers that intend to design sustainability increasing structural agricultural policies

the impact of ceta programs on earnings a review of the literature this paper reviews and assesses evaluations of the comprehensive employment and training act ceta programs most of the studies found that the programs raised earnings by 200 to 600 annually in current dollars the programs were found to be more effective for women than men and public service employment and on the job training were generally found to be more effective activities than classroom training and work experience in spite of the broad overall agreement the studies differed significantly in many of their specific impact findings the nonexperimental nature of the data required the studies to make specific assumptions about selection procedures used to determine which individuals received training and the results are sensitive to the specific measures adopted data limitation and the inability to adequately test the validity of selection processes assumed make it impossible to determine which studies modeled the process correctly

making inferences from controlled income maintenance experiments nationally this paper addresses a question whose answer is essential for interpreting the results of such experiments if an experiment of limited duration is conducted under ideal conditions what can be inferred from the experimental results about behavior in a world where nit is adopted permanently by ideal conditions we mean that a individuals or households 2 in the experiment are conventional utility maximizers given the structure of the experiment and b the experiment is sufficiently well designed to permit the differential responses of individuals to be identified 3 the

currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints this paper presents a simple model of currency crises which is driven by the interplay between the credit constraints of private domestic firms and the existence of nominal price rigidities the possibility of multiple equilibria including a currency crisis equilibrium with low output and a depreciated domestic currency results from the following mechanism if nominal prices are sticky a currency depreciation leads to an increase in the foreign currency debt repayment obligations of firms and thus to a fall in their profits this reduces firms borrowing capacity and therefore investment and output in a credit constrained economy which in turn reduces the demand for the domestic currency and leads to a depreciation we examine the impact of various shocks including productivity fiscal or expectational shocks we then analyze the optimal monetary policy to prevent or solve currency crises we also argue that currency crises can occur both under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes as the primary source of crises is the deteriorating balance sheet of private firms

good bye financial repression hello financial crash some unintended consequences of financial liberalization in latin america are analyzed in this paper intrinsic imperfectious in financial markets and the policy dilemmas they pose are reviewed first the stylized facts of southern cone experiments in financial liberization are then presented alternative ways of organlzing domestic capital markets under latin american conditions are discussed and an eclectic reform mongering program is proposed

attitudes and farmer conservation behavior conservation behavior is influenced by the attitudes of farmers and by context variables like income and farm terrain important attitudes were selected by using the theory that fundamental value ranks or weights affect attitudes and that only certain values are important to the conservation decision an extension of the tobit estimation approach handling both censored observations of the dependent variable and measurement error for the nonlimit observations was used conservation behavior models can be improved with a merger of concepts and approaches from social psychology and economics

narrative sign restrictions for svars we identify structural vector autoregressions using narrative sign restrictions narrative sign restrictions constrain the structural shocks and or the historical decomposition around key historical events ensuring that they agree with the established narrative account of these episodes using models of the oil market and monetary policy we show that narrative sign restrictions tend to be highly informative even a single narrative sign restriction may dramatically sharpen and even change the inference of svars originally identified via traditional sign restrictions our approach combines the appeal of narrative methods with the popularized usage of traditional sign restrictions

evaluating the econometric evaluations of training programs with experimental data this paper takes the results of an employment and training program thatwas run as a field experiment in which the participants were randomlyassigned into a treatment or a control group and compares these results to the estimates that might have been produced by an econometrician who evaluated the program using the same econometric procedures that have been used in the program evaluation literature this comparison shows that many of these econometric procedures fail toreplicate the experimentally determined results and suggests that researchers should be aware of the potential for specification errorsin other nonexperimental evaluations copyright 1986 by american economic association

trade and the environment from a southern perspective the relationship between free trade and the environment is one of the main issues of contention between environmental and ecological economics environmental economics assumes a positive relationship between free trade economic growth and environmental policies environmental externalities may cause important damage however trade is not to be blamed for this instead the fault lies with policy inadequacies at the national level on the other hand some ecological economists criticise the assumptions of environmental economics especially the immobility of production factors and the positive correlation between income and environmental quality they plead for measures to prevent deterioration of northern environmental standards in a race to the bottom due to ecological dumping from the south in this paper we argue that neither environmental economics nor northern ecological economics take into account the structural conditions determining the international trade system based on some new empirical evidence on material flows we stress the notion of environmental cost shifting if physical and political ecology perspectives are adopted a southern approach to the trade and environment issue may arise 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

how important are banks for development national banks in the united states 1870 1900 abstract do banks matter for growth and if so how this paper examines the effects of national banks in the united states from 1870 to 1900 i use the discontinuity in entry caused by a large minimum size requirement to identify the effects of banking for the counties on the margin between getting a bank and not gaining a bank increased production per person by 10 national banks in rural areas improved agriculture over manufacturing moving counties toward geographic comparative advantage since these banks made few long term loans the evidence suggests that the provision of working capital and liquidity matters for growth

monetary intervention mitigated banking panics during the great depression quasi experimental evidence from a federal reserve district border 1929 1933 the federal reserve act divided mississippi between the 6th atlanta and 8th st louis districts during the great depression these districts policies differed atlanta championed monetary activism and the extension of aid to ailing banks st louis eschewed expansionary initiatives during a banking crisis in 1930 atlanta expedited lending to banks in need st louis did not outcomes differed across districts in atlanta banks survived at higher rates lending continued at higher levels commerce contracted less and recovery began earlier these patterns indicate that central bank intervention influenced bank health credit availability and business activity

the benefits of commitment to a currency peg aggregate lessons from the regional effects of the 1896 u s presidential election we develop a method to use the one time cross sectional impact of a cleanly identified shock to identify its aggregate impact through the use of a factor model we apply this methodology to evaluat

approaching the environmental sustainable value in agriculture how factor endowments foster the eco efficiency abstract small and labor intensive farms guarantee a higher degree of environmental sustainability compared to rich capital intensive farms this paper offers a methodological contribution to the value based sustainability approach consisting in computing a modified indicator of environmental sustainable value using this approach the authors test how factor endowments such as capital land and labor contribute to environmental sustainable value using a long term panel of region representative european union farm accountancy data network farms in 2004 2015 the seminal within between specification was employed to control time variant and time in variant space heterogeneity of european regions the articles main finding is that higher capital endowment and lower labor intensity is beneficial for environmental sustainable value the result that farming with higher labor endowment might be less eco efficient contradicts the commonly known perception of this problem in light of our findings we conclude that the pro investment direction of the common agricultural policy should be followed but one size fit all policy is not working

creating an enabling environment policy conditions for less favored areas abstract within the rural areas those with a low productive potential usually home to poor agricultural households with limited access to assets are often the core of rural poverty and under constant threat of resource degradation there is ample evidence that neither trickle down effects in high potential areas nor structural adjustment measures have generated much poverty reduction in these less favored areas lfas often due a lack of attention to the development of factor and commodity markets sustainable and pro poor development of lfas therefore poses formidable challenges and requires special measures to achieve an enabling institutional and policy environment it needs to be based on viable sources of growth that imply considerable investments in physical and human capital and appropriate technology recognize positive externalities and add equity and natural resource management concerns in a context of heterogeneity to establish policy conditions that favor such development the role of and experience with major policy interventions incentives and institutions relevant to lfas is reviewed and an attempt is made to generalize these findings to this effect the different interventions are grouped into three broad categories viz price and market policies public services and investment and institutions and governance while countries should adopt the relevant market and trade policies the case is made for greater awareness of the adverse impact these policies can have in lfas and on their poor and complementary policies and investments need to be put in place to buffer or offset adverse outcomes key complementary interventions include public investments in infrastructure human capital and technology to enhance the competitiveness of lfas and policies to improve their market access there is also need for appropriate phasing of policy and market reforms to give people time to adjust and effective safety nets to cushion loss of livelihood options

estimating the effect of job training programs using longitudinal data ashenfelter s findings reconsidered this paper is an examination of how autoregressive earnings models commonly used to evaluate job training programs can produce badly biased estimates of both the magnitude and the temporal pattern of program impacts ashenfelter s results are used to illustrate this point and a new more appropriate model is used to reanalyze his data of particular importance is the finding that the decay in ashenfelter s estimated training effect for men was produced by a time varying bias in his model

virtual land use and agricultural trade estimating environmental and socio economic impacts abstract liberalization has caused an increase in the global trade of goods and services in particular the value and physical volume of agricultural goods traded have largely increased as the environmental and social consequences of trade are complex they are rarely included in the national and international agricultural policies one reason is that there is a lack of concepts and methods for assessing the environmental and social impacts of trade policies in this paper we develop a method for quantifying and assessing the land use hidden in the export and import of agricultural goods for the case of switzerland for our analysis we focus on arable crops the first methodological step of our research illustrates the spatial relationship of switzerland with countries all over the world through the import and export of land use for arable crops the second step links this spatial dimension with a qualitative assessment of the environmental and socio economic impacts of agricultural land use we applied the method to the case of wheat cultivation within switzerland and import to switzerland the major problem we were confronted with was the availability of data which had both to be reliable and available for the countries wheat is imported from the results show that the calculation of land use is credible in spite of the problems related with data availability the assessment results for each indicator are in agreement with the current situation in the respective countries in addition the aggregation seems to accurately reflect the countries agricultural polices the developed method is used to estimate the overall environmental and socio economic impacts of an increase in wheat imports to switzerland we argue that this method could be applied for anticipating potential impacts of trade agreements still further research is required for fine tuning of the utility functions including a weighting procedure in the aggregation procedure for practical applications important aspects like water shortage should enlarge our limited set of indicators in addition the average impact on a country level was assessed to refine that different agricultural systems ranging from intensive to extensive to organic should be considered beyond our scope was to analyze impacts due to other life cycle stages than the agricultural production for informed decision however information on the whole life cycle of agricultural products is required

work and welfare lessons on employment programs he nation s social welfare policy reflects an ongoing effort to balance sometimes competing objectives alleviating poverty and promoting self sufficiency in a manner consistent with underlying public values about the primacy of the family and the importance of work concern has been growing that the welfare system has not been doing this very well and welfare reform once again moved towards the top of the policy agenda resulting in passage of the family support act of 1988 fsa that the bill was passed is evidence of broad agreement about elements of the problem and its solution that it was passed amidst acrimony and with relatively modest provisions reflects continuing disagreement about the fundamental objectives of reform this paper discusses what economists know about the potential of one central component of the new legislation the effort to transform welfare from a means tested entitlement into a reciprocal obligation in which getting a welfare check would carry with it a requirement to look for and accept a job or to participate in activities that prepare people for work it sets the context for this discussion by briefly outlining why this approach to reform gained support and by summarizing major policy and program alternatives

are classical experiments needed for manpower policy the critical element that distinguishes classical experiments from all other modes of analysis is the random assignment of treatment to enrollees in a study this paper examines the major methodological advantages of random assignment for the purpose of estimating the effectiveness of current manpower policy it also reviews the claimed methodological and ethical objections to experiments the main valid objection to an experiment is neither methodological nor ethical it is the experiment s cost in relation to that of nonexperimental methods of analysis the authors argue that the offsetting gain from experimentation is the inherent reliability of experimental estimates of treatment effects the paper offers a simple framework for deciding whether the improved reliability of treatment effect estimates is worth the added cost of experimentation it concludes with an assessment of the actual value of experiments for evaluating current manpower policies

integration of environmental concerns into agricultural policies of industrial and developing countries abstract the question which this paper addresses concerns the types of environmental and resource related agricultural policy adjustments that could properly address the costs of resource degradation and increase long term prospects for sustainable development various public policy approaches e g polluter pays principle fiscal measures regulations etc are discussed and analyzed with regard to their environmental and resource impacts the paper provides illustrative experiences from industrial and developing nations and where possible lessons and insights of relevance to policy making in developing countries are sought

student work placements in small firms do they pay off or shift tastes we present a model of training investments and employment outcomes in this model training may enhance trainees tastes for particular types of career taste shift and or shift their wage offer distributions pay off an empirical analysis is conducted with a unique data set of uk graduates these data contain information on students career tastes before small firm placements as well as their employment outcomes after graduation analysis of these data indicates that the placements provide a pay off among highly employable graduates who face certain disadvantages in the labour market conversely individuals who expressed a taste for small firm careers before placements are more likely to take up small firm employment after placements suggesting these individuals experience enhanced opportunities for their preferred career however individuals with pre placement large firm preferences have no greater likelihood of entering small firms employment after placements indicating there is no fundamental effect on career tastes

managing exchange rate crises evidence from the 1890s abstract this paper investigates the effectiveness of the monetary authority s borrowing policies in resolving exchange rate cises it shows why obtaining loans or lines of credit in foreign currency may avoid at least temporarily the devaluation of a fixed rate and discusses the problem of the optimal size of the loan and or the line of credit the analysis focuses on a particular episode of foreign exchange rate pressure during the troubled years between 1894 to 1896 the results suggest that the borrowing policy followed by the us treasury in those years was effective in avoiding the collapse of the united states gold standard and that the amount of the borrowing undertaken by the treasury might have been optimal

environmental regulation in an open economy abstract environmental regulation by a large trading country affects the world price of traded commodities a series of second best environmental taxes are derived which explicitly incorporate trade effects for cases which depend on the type of externality the regulating country s commodity trade balance and the presence or absence of trade taxes in the regulated market a coordinated policy solution using both tax and tariff instruments also is derived the practical implications for domestic environmental policy making which emerge from the theoretical results are evaluated

are targeted wage subsidies harmful evidence from a wage voucher experiment this paper presents the results of a controlled experiment designed to test the effectiveness of a targeted wage subsidy program such programs are intended to increase the employment of target group workers by offering employers reimbursement for part of those workers wages in the dayton ohio experiment however job seekers given experimental vouchers identifying them to employers as eligible for a generous wage subsidy were significantly less likely to find employment than were job seekers without vouchers the author speculates that the vouchers had a stigmatizing effect and provided a screening device with which employers discriminated against economically disadvantaged workers

agricultural trade liberalization price changes and environmental effects many analyses of agricultural trade liberalization have been undertaken but few have considered the effects on the environment for the developed countries reducing the degree of protection would result in less intensive production therefore environmental stress would be reduced a reduction of trade barriers in industrial countries would result in higher world prices and in a somewhat lower world price variability assuming initially no policy changes for developing countries the question is how the liberalization would affect the environment higher prices in developing countries increase the level of production by intensifying production particularly in the commercial sector and by an area expansion both result in negative environmental effects these could be partly offset by an increase in hired labor in the commercial sector which might reduce pressure at the frontier and on marginal lands as well as by the income effect these off setting effects may be small however the direction of the overall environmental effects cannot be determined unambiguously without empirical examination at the global level the beneficial economic effects of agricultural trade liberalization probably outweigh the expected negative environmental effects in developing countries but this cannot be unambiguously established without valuation

reconsidering agri environmental policy permitted by the uruguay round agreement agri environmental policies are increasingly being used to redress the balance between jointly produced agricultural and environmental outputs and are permitted by the uruguay round ur agreement with the general provision that they not distort trade in this paper we argue that any market consequences of efficient welfare enhancing agri environmental policies should not be considered trade distorting to consider them so is inconsistent with economic efficiency and with ecological integrity social cost benefit analysis cba is a more appropriate test and guide of trade consistency for agri environmental policies and using trade effects as the test may not enhance social welfare moreover specific provisions in the ur agreement restricting payments under agri environmental policies to opportunity costs are not warranted on economic efficiency grounds and consign the environment to a status subsidiary to agricultural output

incentives regulations and sustainable land use in costa rica deforestation in costa rica has proceeded at a rapid pace of the remaining 2 700 km2 of virgin forests on privately owned land over 300 km2 are being deforested each year pressure on national parks which cover about 27 percent of costa rica is likely to increase in the future preliminary information indicates that contrary to our expectations most of the deforestation at present is not being done by squatters but driven by profit and asset maximization motives of the timber industry banana companies and large cattle ranchers setting aside 27 percent of the country s land as parks and reserves was a major policy decision aside from the removal of some perverse incentives operating inside park areas the main issue there is one of sound management including protection from intruders strengthening enforcement and controlled tourism on the remaining primary and secondary forest areas on privately owned land outside the parks a key question is whether public interests connected with external costs of deforestation warrant public intervention the paper suggests that a differentiated approach to this and other questions is needed depending on the costs and benefits involved and it discusses incentives and regulations which influence land use and makes proposals for reforms

multilateral trade negotiations european integration and farm policy reform trade negotiations and farm policy kym anderson why was it so hard to reach an agreement in the uruguay round to reduce agricultural protection after surveying the growth of agricultural protection in the 1980s i develop arguments based on political economy that imply a systematic tendency for governments to protect farmers increasingly at least up to some threshold as economic development proceeds agricultural protection growth in industrializing countries is therefore normal not exceptional liberalizing those policies before reaching that threshold is unattractive politically unless new influences e g from abroad upset the domestic political equilibrium the uruguay round provided such a force what made the early 1990s so significant a crossroads for farm policy reform was that coincidently there were other changes taking place in europe which lowered the domestic political cost of reforming the ec s common agricultural policy the paper argues that the reforms to farm policy during the rest of this decade as a result of the uruguay round agreement will at best be slow and messy but that is far preferable to the alternative of a failed uruguay round and continued growth of agricultural protection

arresting banking panics federal reserve liquidity provision and the forgotten panic of 1929 scholars differ on whether central bank intervention mitigates banking panics in april 1929 a fruit fly infestation in florida forced the u s government to quarantine fruit shipments from the state and destroy infested groves in july depositors panicked in tampa and surrounding cities the federal reserve bank of atlanta rushed currency to member banks beset by runs we show that this intervention arrested the panic and estimate that bank failures would have been twice as high without the federal reserve s intervention our results suggest that similar interventions may have reduced bank failures during the great depression

trade liberalization economic specialization and the environment abstract a great deal has been written and a great deal of debate has raged on the effects of international trade and trade liberalization on the environment given that it is only recently that the general agreement on tariffs and trade has begun to address the interdependence of the international economy and the international environment in a systematic way it is likely that the debate will continue for quite some time it will be argued that the economic case for there being benign environmental consequences associated with trade liberalization is flawed in important ways this is due to statistical empirical and conceptual issues which affect the estimation of such effects moreover it will be argued that despite the intensity of the debate the effects of international trade on the environment have in fact only been addressed in an incidental manner rather the debate has concentrated on factors that may coexist with trade but not on the role of trade itself this has served to obscure the more fundamental environmental effects of trade liberalization through the homogenization and specialization of ecosystems

integration of environmental concerns into economic analyses of projects and policies in an operational context abstract the efficient use of natural resources both mineral and biological as well as man made capital and human resources is a vital prerequisite for economic and social development one key role of ecological economics is to help value environmental and natural resources more precisely and internalize the cost and benefits of using such resources into the decision making process this paper reviews current economic approaches to the analysis of projects and policies and discusses possibilities for better intergrating environmental concerns into public decision making it reviews current practices as they relate to project analysis the analysis of economic policies and national income accounting a major need at present is not for more theory or techniques but for application of existing methodology and approaches to concrete problems particularly in developing countries the major objective should not be to provide fine turned numbers but to indicate orders of magnitude some project and policy alternatives can be ruled out in this fashion also one can often identify the key estimates to which the decision is sensitive and focus more refined analyses on them cost benefit analysis should be used to the extent possible alongside one needs to consider and to the extent possible rigorously analyze consequences and risks that cannot be measured in monetary terms and use for example multi criteria analysis where possible this together with sound judgement are at present the best inputs into decision making

agri environmental relationships and multi functionality further considerations multi functionality is a currently fashionable argument especially within the eu for continued support of the farming sector however there is a substantial danger that this will be used and be seen to being used as a facade for continued traditiona l support and protection if so the current trend towards liberalised agricultural markets on which much of the developing world depends will be frustrated nevertheless farming does matter to many communities over and above its marketable surplus and the incomes so generated it follows that any negotiations aimed at liberalising agricultural trade have to take these arguments seriously to do so requires that the critical elements of the debate be widely understood this paper outlines these critical elements in the light of a previous contribution from hodge 2000 it argues that there are ways in which quasi market systems can be used to correct market failures implicit in the notion of multi functionality it also argues that proper compensation to existing supported farmers is a necessary and separate condition for sensible policy reform much of the commentary on farm trade liberalisation confuses the two separate conditions for reform multi functionality and compensation this confusion threatens progress towards agricultural trade liberalisation without generating any reliable benefits of a more multifunctional agriculture

essays in social experimentation what experiments are needed for manpower policy experiments where prospective participants are randomly assigned into experimental and control groups are often regarded as the ideal approach to evaluation of manpower policies this examination shows that such experimental designs can yield misleading and incomplete information about program impacts in cases where program effects vary among individuals when individual heterogeneity is present such designs at best provide unbiased estimates of average program effects not of marginal effects the latter are often more important for policy than the former this paper proposes alternative experimental designs that permit estimation of the marginal as well as average program impacts

the impact of training on employment assessing a norwegian labour market programme by estimating a censored regression model it is found that unemployed adults taking part in labor market training increase their subsequent employment within a twelve month response period the employment effects vary with the duration of training and from one field of training to another in general short courses five ten weeks and long courses more than thirty weeks perform better than semilong courses using nonexperimental data and single equation estimation methods the question of unobserved heterogeneity and selection bias arises including a variant of heckman s lambda in the model reduces the estimated employment effect of training thus indicating a positive selection to training copyright 1994 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

banks free banks and u s economic growth the federalist financial revolution may have jump started the u s economy into modern growth but the free banking system 1837 1862 did not play a direct role in sustaining it despite lowering entry barriers and extending banking into developing regions we find in county level data that free banks had little or no effect on growth the result is not just a symptom of the era as state chartered banks seem to have strong and positive effects on manufacturing and urbanization jel g21 n21 o43

agriculture in the uruguay round interests of developing countries agriculture has been favored and protected in developed countries while trade policies in developing countries frequently support industry at the expense of exportables and unprotected importables in agriculture this protection constrains expansion of temperate and subtropical agricultural exports from developing countries several studies have estimated the effects of liberalization of trade restrictions on world prices export earnings and import costs while developing countries generally would benefit from having the agricultural policies of the most powerful countries bound by international rules on trade there are differences among the developing countries as to which products should be liberalized even if such conflicts did not exist politically feasible means to obtain such compliance are elusive the potentially most feasible approaches for developing countries to obtain some measure of liberalization in the uruguay round of trade negotiations are discussed

interactions between agricultural and environmental policies a conceptual framework agricultural policy has a well documented impact on farmers production decisions and those decisions land water and agricultural chemical use may in turn affect the environment there is a public perception that existing agricultural policies are linked to agricultural pollution as exemplified by the conclusions of the recent national research council report alternative agriculture 1989 there is only limited theoretical or empirical research addressing these linkages however this paper develops a conceptual framework that can be used to analyze the interactions between agricultural and environmental policies and pollution this framework integrates physical and economic models at a disaggregate level necessary to capture the heterogeneity of the physical environment and the economic behavior of farmers following e hochman and d zilberman 1978 the disaggregate units can be statistically aggregated to a level useful for policy analysis agricultural and environmental policies can be categorized according to their effects on the intensive and extensive margins combining the different policy instruments with the microeconomic heterogeneity we find that existing agricultural and environmental policies can have either positive or negative effects of nonpoint source pollution to infer an aggregate effect requires data that do not currently exist our framework provides a basis for empirical investigations of these effects given adequate data moreover we find that agricultural policy instruments can be used to mitigate pollution if used appropriately

agri environmental policies in the eu and united states a comparison abstract agri environmental policies aeps in the united states and the european union are examples of payments for environmental services that pay farmers to reduce the negative externalities of agricultural production while serving as a means to transfer public funds to farmers we show that despite similar origins aeps in the two regions differ both in their specific objectives and in their implementation for example aeps in most member states of the eu 15 have the additional objective of using agriculture as a driver for rural development this objective is achieved by compensating farmers for the private delivery of positive public goods such as attractive landscapes produced by agriculture the rationale is market failure and there is empirical evidence that europeans are willing to pay for such positive externalities no comparable provision exists in u s policy by contrast u s aeps focus almost entirely on reducing agriculture s negative externalities such as soil erosion second we find that u s programs are more targeted than their eu counterparts and take opportunity cost into account the eu programs on the other hand address a wider range of externalities and are focused more on the paying for a particular farming process than reducing specific negative externalities the eu takes a broader view of aeps than does the united states both in terms of type of activity that can be funded and by using less targeting by land characteristics and so the european program could be more easily used as a mechanism for transferring income to producers despite this we find evidence that many of the amenities targeted by the programs are demanded by the population

realignment expectations and the us dollar 1890 1897 was there a peso problem we investigate dollar sterling exchange rate expectations during the period 1890 1908 we show that the dollar faced a peso problem in that for much of the period financial markets expected it to depreciate against sterling but this never in fact happened i e expectations were persistently biased drawing on the economic history of the period we identify 11 events which probably gave rise to realignment expectations once the dollar s adherence to the gold standard was settled as a political matter in the 1896 presidential election expectations of dollar realignment abruptly subsided and united states interest rates fell relative to british rates

the causes of free bank failures a detailed examination abstract in this paper we propose and test a new explanation of bank behavior during the free banking era 1837 1863 arguing against the conventional view that free bank failures were due to wildcat banking we claim they were caused by falling asset prices confronting both explanations with our new and detailed data set developed from state auditor reports we find that the falling asset price explanation of free bank failures explains far more failures than does the wildcatting hypothesis