the impact of government size on economic growth a threshold analysis we examine the nature of the relationship between government size and economic growth and identify the optimal level of government size using a large dataset through a novel and very general non linear panel generalized method of moments approach we show that this relationship is statistically significant above and below the optimal level even after splitting our sample to developed and developing countries finally we find an asymmetric impact of government size on economic growth in both developed and developing countries around the estimated threshold

the learning path of the hidden economy the tax burden and tax evasion in new zealand this paper considers the learning curve relationship between the aggregate tax rate and the relative size of the hidden economy in new zealand some simple non linear models are estimated so that the effects of changes in the effective tax rate on the underground economy can be simulated this study finds that about half of the hidden activity in new zealand is a learned response to changing opportunities and constraints in fiscal policy but this amount varies over the business cycle simulating a zero tax rate permits us to discover the natural rate of underground and criminal activity some partial lessons are drawn for taxation policy in that country

growth effects of public expenditure on the state and local level evidence from a sample of rich governments there is a vast empirical literature investigating the relationship between government size and economic growth but the empirical evidence of growth effects of public expenditure using cross country regressions is still inconclusive according to a number of authors this is not surprising since the negative relationship only applies for rich countries with a large public sector restricting their analysis on rich countries only they can show the predicted negative impact naturally a selection of a sub sample of rich countries is always somewhat arbitrary another possibility is to concentrate on governments within a rich country however only few studies investigate the effect of state and local spending on economic growth this study concentrates on the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth within a rich country using the full sample of state and local governments from switzerland over the 1981 2001 period the general finding is a fairly robust negative relationship between gov

corruption and government size a disaggregated analysis using annual state level data over 1983 1987 this paper examines the effect of government size on corruption by public officials by including both demand and supply side incentives for engaging in corrupt practices our objectives are twofold first we assess the relationship between the incidence of corruption and overall measures of the size of the federal government and the state local sector in each state second we explore what kinds of government activities are more likely to be successful in deterring abuse of public office our results are generally supportive of becker s crime and punishment model regarding the primary focus of the paper our results show that government size in particular spending by state governments does indeed have a strong positive influence on corruption

on the examination of non linear relationship between market structure and performance in the us manufacturing industry abstract this paper attempts to investigate the causal link between market structure and industry performance using a micro panel data set of usa manufacturing industries over the period 1958 2007 we employ a novel panel gmm model strongly accounting for endogenous regressors and threshold variable the empirical findings denote the existence of a non monotonic relationship between market structure and total factor productivity tfp our findings call for future research on the impact of market structure on consumer welfare

the government expenditure economic growth relation in japan an analysis by using the adl test for threshold cointegration based on annual data from japan for the period 1960 to 2010 we investigate the government expenditure economic growth relation in japan by using the autoregressive distributed lag test for threshold cointegration developed by li and lee 2010 in particular we evaluate the validity of wagner s view and the keynesian view in the case of japan the empirical results presented herein indicate that of these two classical economics perspectives only wagner s view holds for japan the findings also demonstrate that the adjustment process towards its long run equilibrium is asymmetric

optimal taxation economic growth and income inequality that there is a trade off between equityand efficiency economic growth is wellknown two models have been developed thatlink government spending and taxation toeconomic growth this paper uses thesemodels to provide estimates of thegrowth maximizing tax rate then a twoequation structural model is developed andestimated that is used to find thetrade off rate between economic growth andincome inequality and the growth maximizinglevel of income inequality for the unitedstates over the period 1960 1990

bargaining power ownership and profitability of transnational corporations in developing countries as the bargaining power of the transnational corporations tncs in the sample increased relative to the bargaining power of the host country and as the desire of the tncs for a high level of equity ownership increased the percent equity ownership of the tncs in their subsidiaries increased the relationship between percent equity ownership and subsidiary success from the tncs viewpoint however was j shaped high and low levels of equity ownership were associated with high levels of success control of critical operational variables by the tnc was directly related to success

are firm specific advantages location specific too much of the research on the role of firm specific advantages on firms subsidiary ownership preferences has been undertaken in the context of advanced country multinationals specifically u s mncs research has found that u s firms derive ownership advantages from their size experience and technological and marketing superiority perhaps having operated in the most developed and sophisticated home market many u s firms generate unique skills that give them absolute advantages over firms in almost all foreign host locations developing country mncs do not have absolute ownership advantages similar to those of the u s firms the relevance of a particular firm specific characteristic for a developing country mnc may be contingent not only upon the home country characteristics as in the case of u s mncs but also upon host country characteristics this study investigates the subsidiary ownership preferences among korean mncs and finds that the influence of three firm specific advantages technological intensity product differentiation and capital intensity on subsidiary ownership levels is contingent upon whether the subsidiary is located in a relatively less developed or a more developed country as compared to the home country although some authors have suggested that the influence of firm specific advantages may be contingent upon the characteristics of both home and host country locations empirical investigations to this effect have been nonexistent

government debt government spending and private sector behavior reply roger kormendi 1983 presents apparently strong evidence that in contrast to the standard view consumption is not reduced by taxes but is reduced by government expenditure he interprets his results as supporting a consolidated approach to private sector behavior in which consumers effectively internalize the government budget constraint specifically he claims that consumers regard government spending as the true measure of the government s claim on private resources and so do not respond to changes in taxes given spending this is basically the approach advocated by robert barro 1974 and known also as the ricardian equivalence proposition hereafter rep kormendi s results appears to contradict other empirical work based on the life cycle hypothesis for example martin feldstein 1982 modigliani 1984a sterling 1985 although results similar to his have been reported see david aschauer 1985 john seater and roberto mariano 1985 and the references in kormendi in our view kormendi s analysis is seriously flawed his heuristic derivation of the consumption function leads him to a specification of the aggregate consumption function which is not consistent with the life cycle hypothesis lch or with rep and to questionable methods of estimation once his conceptual and methodological errors are corrected his formulation and more generally the rep hypothesis are found to receive little empirical support in the next section we rely on the lch to derive an aggregate consumption function which shows explicitly how government expenditure and taxes should effect private consumption this derivation helps to bring out the observable implications of rep which are shown to be equivalent to a limiting form of the lch in which the planning horizon is infinite it also serves to clarify the appropriate specification of the variables appearing in the consumption function next section ii reports our empirical estimates and tests section iii compares our results with kormendi s finally section iv reports the results of endeavors to improve the specification of fiscal variables notably by distinguishing between permanent and transitory tax changes

the korean manufacturing multinationals as an extension of the export led growth of national economy overseas direct investment by korean multinationals has been rapidly increasing this article explores the development of the overseas manufacturing direct investment by korean firms and the relationship between parent firms and overseas affiliates three main issues are discussed the ownership specific assets location specific factors and government policies are the important sets of variables that help to explain the internationalization of the korean firms in the manufacturing sector the nature of technology transfer by korean multinationals to their subsidiaries and the benefits as a result of its overseas investment to korean the data for this study were gathered through structured interviews with the parent companies of 18 out of 21 manufacturing overseas subsidiaries and joint ventures formed by korean firms

the non linear impact of oil price on the oil demand a panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non linear impact of oil prices on oil demand data for 42 countries was obtained from the international energy agency for the

sizing the government is there such a thing as an optimal government size we investigate the so called armey curve which claims an inverted u shaped relationship between government size and economic performance using non parametric data envelopment analysis dea the dea scores are linked to control variables such as initial per capita income openness population density urbanization country size and family size for 23 oecd countries we estimate the country specific efficiency scores which reveal the extent to which a country uses excess public resources to achieve the observed growth rate of gdp

inflation expectations real rates and risk premia evidence from inflation swaps this paper develops a model of the term structures of nominal and real interest rates driven by state variables representing the short term real interest rate expected inflation inflation s central tendency and four volatility factors that follow garch processes we derive analytical solutions for nominal bond yields yields on inflation indexed bonds that have an indexation lag and the term structure of expected inflation unlike prior studies the model s parameters are estimated using data on inflation swap rates as well as nominal yields and survey forecasts of inflation the volatility state variables fully determine bonds time varying risk premia and allow for stochastic volatility and correlation between bond yields yet they have small effects on the cross section of nominal yields allowing for time varying volatility is particularly important for real interest rate and expected inflation processes but long horizon real and inflation risk premia are relatively stable

the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth abstract this paper employs the geweke decomposition test on pooled data of 109 developing and industrial countries from 1960 to 1994 to examine the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth the paper finds that 1 financial development generally leads to economic growth 2 the granger causality from financial development to economic growth and the granger causality from economic growth to financial development coexist 3 financial deepening contributes more to the causal relationships in the developing countries than in the industrial countries 4 the longer the sampling interval the larger the effect of financial development on economic growth 5 financial deepening propels economic growth through both a more rapid capital accumulation and productivity growth with the latter channel being the strongest

the growth tax in the united states by providing public goods including law and order national defense and income redistribution that expands the gains from exchange the scope and membership of the constitutional agreement government expenditures act as a positive externality on the growth rate beyond that level taxes act as a negative externality in this paper a simple model is formulated and the optimal growth maximizing tax rate found empirical estimation finds it to be in the range of 21 5 22 9 percent the effect of taxation beyond this level is a cumulative loss of about 30 trillion 1972 dollars in gnp over the period 1949 89

futures prices as risk adjusted forecasts of monetary policy many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets expectations of future monetary policy however to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia these measures require some adjustment in this paper we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical in particular excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and financial business cycle indicators such as treasury yield spreads and corporate bond spreads excess returns on eurodollar futures display similar patterns we document that simply ignoring these risk premia significantly biases forecasts of the future path of monetary policy we also show that risk premia matter for some futures based measures of monetary policy shocks used in the literature

international expansion of emerging market enterprises a springboard perspective in this article we present a springboard perspective to describe the internationalization of emerging market multinational corporations em mnes em mnes use international expansion as a springboard to acquire strategic resources and reduce their institutional and market constraints at home in so doing they overcome their latecomer disadvantage in the global stage via a series of aggressive risk taking measures by aggressively acquiring or buying critical assets from mature mnes to compensate for their competitive weaknesses we discuss unique traits that characterize the international expansion of em mnes and the unique motivations that steer them toward internationalization we further delineate peculiar strategies and activities undertaken by these firms in pursuit of international expansion as well as internal and external forces that might compel or facilitate their propulsion into the global scene we finally explain the risks and remedies associated with this international springboarding strategy and highlight major issues meriting further investigation

the characteristics and performance of korean joint ventures in ldcs little has been reported on joint ventures between firms from newly industrialized countries and developing countries this paper examines twelve characteristics of a sample of korean firms with partners in developing countries ldcs and contrasts them with existing research where a developed country firms have linked with firms in other developed countries and b developed country firms have linked with local firms in developing countries as part of the analysis ten hypotheses were formulated and tested

government size productivity and economic growth the post war experience a substantial portion of the slowdown in productivity and economic growth in the seventies and eighties cannot be ascribed to traditional factors we have found one potential additional source the dramatic growth in the scale of government employing a theoretical model of output growth we derive an equation which controls for cyclical influences and which permits distinguishing the effects of government growth on the economic base from the effects on the economic growth rate we find that increases in the scale of government lead to statistically significant reductions in both the economic base and the economic growth rate in addition we find that most of this government induced retardation of economic activity arises from reductions in productivity rather that reductions in the employment of factors

corruption inequality and fairness bigger governments raise the possibilities for corruption more corruption may in turn raise the support for redistributive policies that intend to correct the inequality and injustice generated by corruption we formalize these insights in a simple dynamic model a positive feedback from past to current levels of taxation and corruption arises either when wealth originating in corruption and rent seeking is considered unfair or when the ability to engage in corruption is unevenly distributed in the population this feedback introduces persistence in the size of the government and the levels of corruption and inequality multiple steady states exist in some cases

financial development and economic growth evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests abstract in this paper we investigate the long run relationship between financial depth and economic growth trying to utilize the data in the most efficient manner via panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis in addition we use threshold cointegration tests and dynamic panel data estimation for a panel based vector error correction model the long run relationship is estimated using fully modified ols for 10 developing countries the empirical results provide clear support for the hypothesis that there is a single equilibrium relation between financial depth growth and ancillary variables and that the only cointegrating relation implies unidirectional causality from financial depth to growth

inflation risk premia and risk adjusted expectations of inflation abstract the rate of swap contracts linked to inflation can be a poor measure of inflation expectations as it incorporates time varying risk premia by following an established approach we estimate inflation risk premia and construct risk adjusted measures of inflation expectations for the us and the euro area our results show that premia are negatively related to the business cycle and the volatility of the stock market increase with the maturity of the contract and are on average lower in the us than in the euro area

economic freedom government policy and the trade off between equity and economic growth this study investigates the role that economicfreedom plays in economic growth and in the distribution in marketincome the role of government policy in advancingeconomic progress and in promoting income equality and the effectthat the rate of economic progress has on thedistribution of market income structural and reduced formmodels are estimated that reveal that economic freedompromotes both economic growth and equity and that there is apositive but relatively small trade off between growth andincome inequality

productivity in the united states and its relationship to government activity an analysis of 57 years 1929 1986 under the classical supply side paradigm of productivity grouth raising government economic above rudimentary levels integrates markets and provides useful public goods which enhance growth beyond some point however increasing government activity discourages growth through tax disincentives and by rewarding dependence on government expenditures defining government economic activity to be government expenditures as a percentage of gnp this study looks first at data for the period 1889 1986 and shows that the u s economy has experienced what is predicted by the supply side paradigm in addition the study presents an econometric analysis of government s effects on productivity for the period 1929 1986 using a standard neoclassical growth model this analysis validates the classical supply side paradigm and shows that maximum productivity growth occurs when government expenditures represent about 20 of gnp far less than the 35 which existed in 1986

international patent protection 1960 2005 abstract this note provides an update to the index of patent protection published in this journal in 1997 the original paper presented the index for 1960 1990 for 110 countries the index has now been updated to 2005 and extended to 122 countries the adoption of stronger patent laws and the composition of patent rights vary across countries by level of economic development

implementation cycles investment and growth we develop a model of intrinsic cycles driven by the decentralized behavior of entrepreneurs and firms making continuous divisible improvements in their productivity we show that when the introduction of productivity improvements is endogenous implementation cycles arise even in the presence of reversible investment and consumption smoothing the implied cyclical equilibrium is unique within its class and shares several features in common with actual business cycles in particular its predictions are qualitatively consistent with the joint behavior of the investment rate and tobin s q during u s recessions

government and economic growth a non linear relationship recently various authors have examined the relationship between growth in government size and total economic growth in each case the authors permitted only a monotonic relationship this paper examines the issue of a non linear relationship between growth in government and overall growth in the economy

optimal taxation and economic growth a comment scully public choice 115 299 312 2003 claims that for the united states in 1960 1990 the growth maximizing size of the state was about 19 of gdp however if an error in the model specification is corrected and if 2001 vintage data is used instead of 1996 vintage data estimates of the growth maximizing size of the state range between 9 and 29 of gdp further the method spuriously identifies a growth maximizing tax rate even if no relationship exists between growth and the size of the state the model cannot address reliably the question it attempts to answer

government size decentralization and growth empirical evidence from italian regions abstractthe aim of this study is to empirically assess the relationship among government size decentralization and economic growth in italian ordinary regions the empirical analysis based on a panel dataset on italian regions provides evidence in support of the existence of an inverted u shaped relationship between public expenditure and economic growth that depends on the degree of fiscal decentralization in particular according to our estimates on the specific italian case the optimal degree of decentralization is around 32 while the optimal government size value is approximately 52

developing countries and mnes extending and enriching the research agenda foreign direct investment fdi through multinational enterprises mnes has emerged in the last decade as the principal source of foreign capital for developing countries meyer this issue underlines the need for international business ib scholars to understand the impact of these investments on host developing countries he offers a useful assessment of the literature and proposes a rich set of questions for further research however his research agenda can be extended and enriched in two ways first ib scholars must study as they always have causation in the opposite direction namely the impact of developing country context on mne behavior and the co evolution of these two variables over time in doing so they must incorporate into their models contemporary issues such as the continued inadequacy of rules for fdi in infrastructure sectors or the clever means by which mnes are rewriting the global rules under which they operate in developing countries e g on intellectual property rights second ib scholars must pay more attention to topics that are not mainstream within the field but are of great importance to developing countries examples include the behavior and performance of a new generation of home grown mnes the role of diaspora in homeland fdi in countries like china and india and the implications of global outsourcing of services

does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis abstractthis paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth the paper applies a

the shifting scully curve international evidence from 1871 to 2016 scully curves estimating growth maximizing public sector size are constructed using panel data covering 17 industrialized nations from 1870 2016 results suggest that government expenditure to gdp

the effect of government size on the unemployment rate recent empirical studies have revealed that the size of government is inversely related to economic growth and technical efficiency evidence is presented linking the size of government to reported unemployment rates for the industrial countries during recent years this finding helps to explain the empirical link between government size and poor macroeconomic performance

the optimal size of government in the economic analysis of the theory of government two views of government are evident the pigovian view sees government as a benevolent actor striving to correct for the inadequacies and excesses of an unrestrained marketplace the public choice view of government portrays government as the tool of special interest groups as likely to generate distortions as to correct them in this paper a model of government that incorporates both views will be developed and then empirically tested the model developed assumes that all expenditures by the government are inputs into the private sector production treating government expenditures as inputs into the production of private sector output there is some optimal size of government that maximizes private sector output the model incorporates a general production function for private sector output output is a function of private labor private capital and government expenditures the pigovian and public choice views of government are reflected in the assumed impact of g on the marginal productivities of l and k the model is tested using united states data and a cobb douglas production function estimates indicate that the 1983 level of government expenditures exceeds by 87 percent the level that would maximize private sector output reducing government from 491 billion to 263 billion and shifting the freed labor to the private sector would increase output from 1187 billion to 1451 billion

financial development and innovation led growth is too much finance better abstract we show that the expansion of financial sector may hurt innovative activities and hence the innovation led growth using data on 50 countries over the 1990 2016 period countries with higher level of financial development are found to have a smaller positive or insignificant effect on innovation the marginal effect of innovation on growth is a decreasing function of financial development using a dynamic panel threshold method we re examine the possible non linearity between finance innovation and growth we find that innovation exhibits an insignificant effect on output growth when credit to the private sector exceeds a threshold level of about 60 as a share of gdp these results are not driven by banking crises the long run effect of 2007 2008 financial crisis or the ongoing european sovereign debt crisis

the composition of public expenditure and economic growth abstract noting that the literature has focused on the link between the level of public expenditure and growth we derive conditions under which a change in the composition of expenditure leads to a higher steady state growth rate of the economy the conditions depend not just on the physical productivity of the different components of public expenditure but also on the initial shares using data from 43 developing countries over 20 years we show that an increase in the share of current expenditure has positive and statistically significant growth effects by contrast the relationship between the capital component of public expenditure and per capita growth is negative thus seemingly productive expenditures when used in excess could become unproductive these results imply that developing country governments have been misallocating public expenditures in favor of capital expenditures at the expense of current expenditures

can exchange rate pass through explain the asymmetric gasoline puzzle evidence from a pooled panel threshold analysis of the eu abstract this study contributes to the literature since it tries to link the exchange rate pass through erpt with the rockets and feathers hypothesis using a panel of eu 28 countries allowing for the existence of an endogenous threshold variable our empirical findings indicate that the threshold model is better suited to this analysis than the baseline linear adjustment model this is the case since the latter restricts the threshold to be centered around zero and the dynamic response to cumulative shocks cannot be properly identified the empirical findings reveal that the threshold variable expressed by the trade weighted dollar exchange rate index is statistically significant only in the sample above the threshold high regime this means that for the net eu exporting countries fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the us against its major eu trading partners do affect the level of pre tax retail gasoline prices with the relevant elasticity exceeding unity complete erpt moreover all the statistical tests reject the null hypothesis that there is no significant threshold and thus an asymmetric adjustment gasoline mechanism prevails the impulse response functions confirm our empirical findings that erpt can explain asymmetric gasoline pricing within the eu periphery

threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in developing countries abstract this paper introduces a generalized panel threshold model by allowing for regime intercepts the empirical application to the relation between inflation and growth confirms that the omitted variable bias of standard panel threshold models can be statistically and economically significant

estimating inflation risk premia using inflation linked bonds a review this paper provides an overview of studies that estimate the inflation risk premium using inflation linked bond ilb yields i categorize existing studies outline their research designs and compare their estimates for the inflation risk premium furthermore the importance of accounting for ilb illiquidity and an overview of existing ilb liquidity proxies are demonstrated a discussion of current literature developments such as the zero lower bound and an outline for future research directions conclude the paper

government expenditure and economic growth a cross country study this paper examines the relationship between the share of government consumption expenditure in gdp and the rate of growth of real per capita gdp the work of the u n international comparison project has recently made available new estimates for over 100 countries of both per capita gdp and the share of government consumption these new estimates are based on direct price comparisons rather than exchange rate conversions as a result the statistics for different countries are more comparable and cross country studies will be more reliable

does post ante investment experience matter lessons from fdi in china ample efforts of fdi literature have researched on the motives and determinants of fdi flows based on ex ante conditions little has been studied with regard to the effects of post ante behaviour in determining future investment decisions post ante experience of fdi decisions with regard to foreign investors satisfaction or dissatisfaction and future profit expectations on recurrent decisions are critical this paper thus attempts to investigate fdi in the context of an emerging market environment with emphasis on how environmental and institutional factors and the micro firm effects of how investors post ante views on profits expectations and investment experience would affect mncs decisions on recurrent investment and firm relocation empirical results show that decisions in the short and long run were affected differently by the factors under study specifically the short run decisions were more affected by profit expectations while the long run by post ante experience on investment satisfaction dissatisfaction and environmental and institutional determinants