the macroeconomic effects of government debt in a stochastic growth model abstract this paper studies how government liabilities affect macroeconomic aggregates in a standard general equilibrium growth model there are two principal results i though it is often thought that fiscal deficits crowd out investment this paper shows that deficit financed cuts in distortionary income taxation may stimulate investment even if agents expect future taxes on capital income to be higher this result is dependent on the values of two key parameters the elasticity of labor supply and the degree of persistence in the government debt process ii the economy s response to an increase in government expenditure depends on how it is financed distortionary tax finance may lead to a decline in output consumption and investment in contrast deficit finance may increase output and consumption

the role of benefit transfer in ecosystem service valuation the demand for timely monetary estimates of the economic value of nonmarket ecosystem goods and services has steadily increased over the last few decades this article describes the use of benefit transfer to generate monetary value estimates of ecosystem services specifically the article provides guidance for conducting such benefit transfers and summarizes advancements in benefit transfer methods databases and analysis tools designed to facilitate its application

small firms and the merger mania empirical research has found an average or even superior performance of small firms this seems to be at variance with the secular concentration process and the recurrent merger waves this paper tries to integrate size and merger research higher profitability of small firms is explained by their incentive structure and shorter decision lags but also by lower wages and higher individual risk premia their faster growth in the eighties was in addition fostered by diversification of demand miniaturization of technology and a need for flexibility under uncertainty the merger wave on the other hand does not necessarily prove that large firms are superior managers and shareholders may be seduced by stockmarket optimism a sizeable industry of banks agents and lawyers have their own interests in mergers mergers may be important in declining markets and for the acquisition of technology on average mergers do not improve efficiency profits or internal growth small and large firms serve different purposes performance depends on the market incentives and technology the establishment growth and closure of small firms as well as mergers are attempts to find the optimal organization for utility maximization in a world of severe uncertainty and diverse needs

recent trends in the size structure of italian manufacturing firms this paper analyses the re emergence of small scale production which has characterised the more recent phase of industrial development in western countries providing updated evidence about the phenomenon and focussing in particular the attention on italy where it has been assuming peculiar relevance

the decline of dominant firms 1905 1929 the theory of dynamic limit pricing implies that a firm maximizes its wealth by gradually sacrificing its dominant market share we extend the theory by simulation methods to show that higher structural entry barriers generally result in both higher profits and a slower sacrifice of market share the model is applied to 42 once dominant firms in u s manufacturing to explain jointly the declines of their market shares and the profit rates earned during 1905 1929 the statistical results agree substantially with the hypothesis that these firms behaved consistently with maximizing their wealth through dynamic limit pricing

taxing capital not a bad idea after all we quantitatively characterize the optimal capital and labor income tax in an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic uninsurable income shocks and permanent productivity difierences of households the optimal capital income tax rate is signiflcantly positive at 36 percent the optimal progressive labor income tax is roughly a at tax of 23 percent with a deduction of 7 200 relative to average household income of 42 000 the high optimal capital income tax is mainly driven by the life cycle structure of the model whereas the optimal progressivity of the labor income tax is attributable to the insurance and redistribution role of the tax system jel e62 h21 h24

the dual structure of incomplete demand systems integrability of incomplete demand systems is discussed the concepts of weak integrability quasi expenditure function quasi indirect utility function and quasi utility function are defined their relationships to the expenditure function indirect utility function and utility function are developed the dual structure of the quasi functions permits exact welfare analysis and reveals the conditional preference structure for the commodities of interest new results relating the uniqueness and exactness of consumer s surplus to the structure of the expenditure and indirect utility functions are obtained

optimal capital income taxation with incomplete markets borrowing constraints and constant discounting for a wide class of infinitely lived agent models chamley has shown that the optimal capital income tax rate is zero in the long run lucas has argued that for the u s economy there is a significant welfare gain from switching to this policy this paper shows that for the bewley class of models with incomplete insurance markets and borrowing constraints the optimal tax rate on capital income is positive even in the long run therefore cutting the capital income tax to zero may well lead to welfare losses

willingness to pay for land preservation across states and jurisdictional scale implications for benefit transfer in stated preference valuation of farmland preservation respondents are often told that preservation will occur within various jurisdictional scales that is community or state but are not told the specific location of parcels the resultant availability of welfare estimates for different scales and regions provides numerous avenues for benefit transfer this paper provides a systematic assessment of transfer error contrasting different methods for the transfer of farmland preservation values across states and jurisdictional scales results drawn from multistate choice experiments suggest that the choice of across scale versus across state transfer method can have significant implications for transfer validity

the optimum quantity of debt abstract we find that the welfare gains to being at the optimum quantity of debt rather than the current us level are small and therefore concerns regarding the high level of debt in the us economy may be misplaced this finding is based on a model of a large number of infinitely lived households whose saving behavior is influenced by precautionary saving motives and borrowing constraints this model incorporates a different role for government debt than is found in standard models and it captures different cost benefit trade offs on the benefit side government debt enhances the liquidity of households by providing an additional means of smoothing consumption and by effectively loosening borrowing constraints on the cost side the implied taxes have adverse wealth distribution and incentive effects in addition government debt crowds out capital via higher interest rates and lowers per capita consumption

idiosyncratic risk aggregate risk and the welfare effects of social security we ask whether a pay as you go financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic productivity and aggregate business cycle risk we show analytically that the whole welfare benefit from joint insurance against both risks is greater than the sum of benefits from insurance against the isolated risk components one reason is the convexity of the welfare gain in total risk the other reason is a direct risk interaction which amplifies the utility losses from consumption risk we proceed with a quantitative evaluation of social security s welfare effects we find that introducing an unconditional minimum pension leads to substantial welfare gains in expectation even net of the welfare losses from crowding out about 60 of the welfare gains would be missing when simply summing up the isolated benefits

pareto improving social security reform when financial markets are incomplete this paper studies an overlapping generations model with stochastic production and incomplete markets to assess whether the introduction of an unfunded social security system leads to a pareto improvement when returns to capital and wages are imperfectly correlated a system that endows retired households with claims to labor income enhances the sharing of aggregate risk between generations our quantitative analysis shows that abstracting from the capital crowding out effect the introduction of social security represents a pareto improving reform even when the economy is dynamically efficient however the severity of the crowding out effect in general equilibrium tends to overturn these gains

estimating the demand for protecting freshwater lakes from eutrophication in any discussion of the valuation of public goods particularly environmental amenities contingent valuation travel cost and hedonics are commonly cited as methods for estimating hicksian or marshallian welfare freeman while contingent valuation and travel cost are widely employed we know of very few applications where hedonic demand functions have been estimated palmquist 1984 and parsons estimated second stage hedonic demands for characteristics of housing units both used the approach of estimating separate hedonic price functions for different real estate markets to identify demand parameters for housing characteristics the research reported here is the first to use separate real estate markets to identify demand parameters for an environmental amenity the specific application is water clarity in selected lakes in maine reduced water

a note on choice of residential location in travel cost demand models where x is number of visits to a site p is price y is a k x 1 vector of observed individual characteristics and e is a random component 1 is a 1 x k parameter vector and p is a scalar parameter hundreds of models with this basic demand relationship as a basis have been estimated see smith s 1989 review my concern is that the price used in this model may be endogenous because people base decisions about where to live in part on proximity to recreation sites if so unobserved taste characteristics in the error term e will be

is meta analysis a noah s ark for non market valuation this paper describes meta analytical methods as they have been applied to non market valuation research these studies have been used to review and synthesize literature and more recently in benefit transfer this second use imposes a higher standard on the consistency in economic concepts being summarized and in the resources included in a meta analysis to meet this need the paper proposes and illustrates a structural framework using a generalized method of moments estimator to estimate the parameters of a preference function with the benefits estimates usually encountered in meta analytic summaries

optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model this paper develops the quantitative implications of optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model in a stationary equilibrium the ex ante tax rate on capital income is approximately zero there is an equivalence class of ex post capital income tax rates and bond policies that support a given allocation within this class the optimal ex post capital tax rates can range from close to independently and identically distributed to close to a random walk the tax rate on labor income fluctuates very little and inherits the persistence properties of the exogenous shocks thus there is no presumption that optimal labor tax rates follow a random walk most of the welfare gains realized by switching from a tax system like that of the united states to the ramsey system come from an initial period of high taxation on capital income

environmental inequality and economic valuation i study how the economic value of a heterogeneously distributed environmental public good depends on how the endowment with this good and income are distributed i find that the effect of environmental inequality on the societal willingness to pay wtp for the environmental good is determined both by its substitutability and by the correlation of its provision with income specifically environmental inequality decreases societal wtp for substitutes but this effect is reversed if the environmental good is a complement or distributed strongly in favour of richer households moreover i show that richer households living in places where environmental good endowment is high increases decreases societal wtp if and only if the environmental good is a substitute for complement to consumption goods i propose novel adjustment factors for structural benefit transfer to control for differences in the spatial distribution of environmental goods using forest preservation in poland as an empirical example i find that societal wtp is up to 4 higher for equal access to forests and up to 8 higher for an equal distribution of both income and access to forests

a structural equations approach to modeling consumptive recreation demand abstract in this analysis we develop a two equation structural model of a count travel cost model of recreational angling demand and angling success by modeling the two equations jointly we avoid the difficulties associated with the usual approach which estimates the demand for recreational fishing sites assuming the existence of an exogenous measure of fishing quality our analysis explicitly develops the joint log likelihood function that combines the two processes we estimate our model using full information maximum likelihood methods

valuing environmental resources through demand for related commodities we examine the revealed preference theory underlying the welfare analysis of public goods e g environmental quality by observing the consumption of related commodities inspired by larson 1991 and ebert 1998 and extended from eom and larson 2006 an empirical strategy is formulated consistent with the theory of uniquely deriving use and nonuse values for a change in the public good we show that the weak complementarity assumption and the willig condition the common preference assumptions used to support the revealed preference methods for non market valuation may be tested as parameter restrictions a study of water quality valuation is presented to illustrate the proposed empirical strategy results show that the weak complementarity assumption and the willig condition generally do not hold in the case study and the consumer surplus derived from the indirect valuation method deviates largely from the exact welfare measures

on the distributional effects of reducing capital taxes this article asks whether household heterogeneity and market incompleteness have quantitatively important implications for the welfare effects of tax changes we compare a representative agent economy to an economy in which households face idiosyncratic uninsurable income risk the income process is consistent with empirical estimates and implies a realistic wealth distribution we find that capital tax cuts imply large welfare gains in the representative agent economy however when households are heterogeneous substantial redistribution during transition means that only a minority will support capital tax cuts whereas most households can expect large welfare losses

testing choice experiment for benefit transfer with preference heterogeneity benefit transfer is a cost effective method for estimating the value of environmental goods that relies on information obtained in previous studies the multiattribute approach of choice experiments should provide advantages in terms of benefit transfer allowing differences in environmental improvements between sites as well as differences in socioeconomic and attitude characteristics between respondent populations this article investigates the capability of choice experiment method to be used in environmental benefit transfer when a random parameters approach is used to allow for preference heterogeneity we find that the inclusion of respondents taste heterogeneity reduces the magnitude of the transfer error

optimal fiscal policy with recursive preferences i study the implications of recursive utility a popular preference specification in macro finance for the design of optimal fiscal policy standard ramsey tax smoothing prescriptions are substantially altered the planner over insures by taxing less in bad times and more in good times mitigating the effects of shocks at the intertemporal margin there is a novel incentive for introducing distortions that can lead to an ex ante capital subsidy overall optimal policy calls for a much stronger use of debt returns as a fiscal absorber leading to the conclusion that actual fiscal policy is even worse than we thought

evaluation of nonmarket goods recovering unconditional preferences a new approach is proposed for the evaluation of nonmarket goods starting from a complete or incomplete conditional demand system for market goods which is observable and depends on nonmarket goods this information is not sufficient to recover the underlying preference ordering of the representative consumer the central idea is to employ additional marginal willingness to pay functions for the nonmarket goods since they can be estimated either together with the demand system or in a separate step they are less arbitrary than the assumptions or hypotheses usually made if the entire system is weakly integrable the underlying ordering and appropriate welfare measures can be derived in this article i investigate the relationship between conditional and unconditional demand systems present sufficient conditions for weak integrability and demonstrate the practicability of the procedure proposed by means of three examples

transferring environmental value estimates issues and alternatives abstract environmental value transfer needs to be understood in the context of scientific information use in general this provides a different perspective upon the reasons why benefit transfer in particular appears so controversial and raises concerns over the limited types of validity testing being undertaken by those supporting such applications as ecosystem services valuation another key issue which we emphasise is the unintentional challenge to standard economic theory raised by the models used to conduct value transfers existing value transfer practice reveals the need for a more inclusive approach if environmental values are to be addressed we argue that there are robust alternative means for including multiple environmental values in decision processes these cannot be dismissed out of hand and analysts should be expanding their understanding of the available approaches which include attitude and norm measures multi criteria analysis and participatory deliberative institutions

meta analytic benefit transfer of outdoor recreation economic values testing out of sample convergent validity a benefit transfer approach to recreationeconomic valuation using meta analysis isexamined since the meta regression modeltakes into account some of the study specificeffects on willingness to pay wtp estimates benefit transfer using meta analysis couldyield a valid wtp estimate of unstudiedrecreation resources the convergent validityof the meta analytic benefit transfer is testedusing out of sample original studies from theu s the analyses are performed usingpercentage difference paired t test regression and correlation tests the testsreveal mixed results on convergence betweenestimated wtp using meta analytic benefittransfer function btf and out of sampleoriginal wtp values there is a fairly highpercentage difference between the estimated andoriginal wtp values 80 88 and the meandifferences are statistically significant asshown by paired t tests however correlationand regression results consistently showsignificant positive relationships betweennational btf estimated and original wtp valuesindicating some level of convergence theresults show that the national btf outperformthe regional btf indicating a potential of thenational btf for recreation benefit transferwhen a first best primary valuation study isnot affordable

vsl reconsidered what do labor supply estimates reveal about risk preferences abstract we propose and illustrate a theoretically consistent framework for linking estimates of the value of a statistical life vsl to individual preferences our example suggests a method for using estimates of the labor supply elasticity to impute a vsl estimate

the real interest rate and aggregate supply abstract this paper analyzes the effects of the anticipated real interest rate on aggregate supply variables in a model where time to produce and variable capital utilization play a crucial role the potential importance of the present mechanism for business cycle theory lies in its ability to generate positive co movements of employment capital utilization labor productivity output and investment these variables are predicted to be affected negatively by the real interest rate reduced forms for output and employment are derived and tested with canadian data taking estimates of the real interest rate prevailing in the united states as the relevant exogenous price

measuring angling quality in count data models of recreational fishing a non nested test of three approaches this paper develops a methodology for investigating different specifications of angling quality in recreational demand models the methodology is used to compare three alternative specifications of the relationship between angling demand and site quality the site quality alternatives include chemical concentrations biological stress indices based on the chemicals and catch per unit effort the three alternatives are differentiated using a likelihood ratio non nested testing procedure

accounting for the u s earnings and wealth inequality we show that a theory of earnings and wealth inequality based on the optimal choices of ex ante identical households that face uninsured idiosyncratic shocks to their endowments of efficiency labor units accounts for the u s earnings and wealth inequality almost exactly

effective tax rates in macroeconomics cross country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption abstract this paper proposes a method for computing tax rates using national accounts and revenue statistics using this method we construct time series of tax rates for large industrial countries the method identifies the revenue raised by different taxes at the general government level and defines aggregate measures of the corresponding tax bases this method yields estimates of effective tax rates on factor incomes and consumption consistent with the tax distortions faced by a representative agent in a general equilibrium framework these tax rates compare favorably with existing estimates of marginal tax rates and highlight important international differences in tax policy

exact consumer s surplus and deadweight loss consumer s surplus is a widely used tool in applied welfare economics both economic theorists and cost benefit analysis often use consumer s surplus despite its somewhat dubious reputation the basic idea is to evaluate the value to a consumer or his willingness to pay for a change in price of a good from say pricep to pricep because price changes affect consumer welfare an evaluation of this effect is often a key input to public policy decisions yet consumer s surplus is probably the most controversial of widely used economic concepts both paul samuelson and ian little conclude that the economics profession would be better off without it it is my feeling of the situation that substantial agreement exists on the correct quantities to be measured the amount the consumer would pay or would need to be paid to be just as well off after the price change as he was before the price change the quantities correspond to john hicks compensating variation measures an alternative measure which takes ex post price change utility as the basis of comparison is hicks equivalent variation the controversy arises in the measurement of these quantities the usual measurement procedure is to use the area to the left of the marshallian market demand curve between two price levels jules dupuit originated this measure of welfare change and alfred marshall and hicks derived appropriate conditions for its use the primary condition for the area to the left of the demand curve to correspond to the compensating variation is to have constant marginal utility of income marshall gave this condition and if it holds the same quantity will be derived as the area to the left of the compensated hicksian demand curve this area to the left of the compensated demand curve is exactly what the compensating variation and equivalent variation measure thus the constant marginal utility of income is a sufficient condition for marshallian consumer s surplus to be equal to hicks consumer s surplus in this case arnold harberger s plea to use the welfare triangle as one half times the product of the price change times the quantity change to measure deadweight loss corresponds to the correct theoretical amount of welfare change in a recent paper robert willig derives bounds for the percentage difference between the correct measure of either the compensating or equivalent variation and the marshallian measure derived form the market demand curve his bounds which depend on the income elasticity of demand for the single good in the region of price change being considered as well as the proportion of the consumer s income spent on the good demonstrate that the marshallian consumer s surplus is often a good approximation to hicks consumer s surplus the fact that the proportion of the consumer s income spent matters as well as the income elasticity was first pointed out by harold hotelling willig contends that the approximation error will be less than the errors involved in estimating the demand curve thus he hopes to remove the need for apology that applied economists often need to give to theorists who remark on the inappropriateness of using marshallian consumer s surplus to measure welfare change however in this paper i show that for the case primarily considered by willig of a single price change which is also the situation in which consumer s surplus is often used in applied work no approximation is necessary professor of economics massachusetts institute of technology and research associate national bureau of economic research i would like to thank peter diamond erwin diewert daniel mcfadden robert merton robert solow hal varian joel yellin and the referees for help and comments research support from the national science foundation is acknowledged the reason that we still have two rather than one of samuelson s six measures of consumer s surplus arises from an index number problem of the correct basis for the welfare comparison i will give both measures but plan to concentrate on the compensating variation

meta analysis benefit transfer and methodological covariates implications for transfer error meta regression models in the valuation literature demonstrate that willingness to pay estimates vary according to methodological factors neither theory nor characteristics of policy sites dictate the treatment of associated covariates within benefit transfer however and the literature provides few insights into potential impacts of common empirical treatments this paper introduces a method to systematically characterize the impact of methodological variables on transfer error using a repeated leave one out convergent validity framework the analysis contrasts errors for a hypothetical ideal case in which correct methodological covariate treatments are known to the realistic case in which the correct treatment is unknown results indicate that the common assumption of mean values for methodological covariates leads to only a modest increase in mean transfer error relative to that found in the hypothetical ideal case

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

reducing government debt in the presence of inequality abstract what are the welfare effects of government debt in particular what are the welfare consequences of government debt reductions we answer these questions with the help of an incomplete markets economy with production households are subject to uninsurable income shocks we make several contributions first by targeting the skewed wealth and earnings distribution of the us economy in our calibration we identify inequality as the major driver of the welfare effects of public debt gdp changes second we show that in order to fully gauge the welfare consequences and the political feasibility of government debt changes it is crucial to consider the transitional dynamics between stationary equilibria our results therefore have important implications for the design of debt reduction policies since the skewed wealth distribution generates a large fraction of borrowing constrained households a public debt reduction should be non linear such that the tax burden is postponed into the future

choice modeling and tests of benefit transfer choice modelling cm is a stated preference technique that is increasingly being used to generate estimates of non market values in cm applications respondents to a survey are presented with several sets of options which contain common attributes but at varying levels and are asked to select their preferred alternative from each set the information provided by respondents choices is used to estimate marginal rates of substitution and hence estimates of value in this paper the results from three separate cm applications are presented estimates are made of the value of improving the quality of wetlands the first two applications focused on the gwydir wetlands in new south wales australia one survey was conducted in sydney a major urban centre and the second was conducted in moree a rural centre close to the gwydir wetlands the third survey which was also conducted in sydney focused on the macquarie marshes another wetland in new south wales an objective of the study was to test the suitability of using cm derived estimates for benefit transfer both across different populations and across different wetlands cm is potentially suited to benefit transfer because it is possible to allow for differences in environmental improvements between sites as well as differences in socio economic characteristics between respondent populations several tests aimed at determining the validity of transfers using cm across sites and populations are presented these include tests of the equality of models implicit prices and estimates of compensating surplus

enhanced geospatial validity for meta analysis and environmental benefit transfer an application to water quality improvements meta regression models are commonly used within benefit transfer to estimate willingness to pay wtp for environmental quality improvements theory suggests that these estimates should be sensitive to geospatial factors including resource scale market extent and the availability of substitutes and complements valuation meta regression models addressing the quantity of non market commodities sometimes incorporate spatial variables that proxy for a subset of these effects however meta analyses of wtp for environmental quality generally omit geospatial factors such as these leading to benefit transfers that are invariant to these factors this paper reports on a meta regression model for water quality benefit transfer that incorporates spatially explicit factors predicted by theory to influence wtp the metadata are drawn from stated preference studies that estimate per household wtp for water quality changes in united states water bodies and combine primary study information with extensive geospatial data from external sources results find that geospatial variables are associated with significant wtp variations as predicted by theory and that inclusion of these variables reduces transfer errors

more evidence on the undercounting of small firm r d abstract drawing from the seo national survey on r d and innovation in the netherlands we argue that there must be an underrecording of small scale r d by orders of magnitude in the r d survey by the dutch central statistical office such underrecording holds for manufacturing and even more so for service firms this finding is confirmed by estimates based on records of firms receiving r d subsidies which we use as a third independent source in order to allow for international comparability of r d data the survey methods of the dutch central statistical office are similar to those in other oecd countries therefore our findings in the dutch manufacturing and service industries are likely to have an impact for the measurement of r d in other oecd countries the results have implications for our judgement about the famous schumpeterian hypotheses concerning the influence of firm size and market structure on r d

evaluating the performance of benefit transfer an empirical inquiry abstract benefit transfers are used by public agencies needing information on costs and benefits of policy decisions although scientific debate regarding the validity of benefit transfer is ongoing this article develops a methodology to evaluate the performance of direct benefit transfer and benefit function transfer and applies the methodology to two pairs of similar non market amenities empirical results indicate that benefit function transfer is more robust than transfer of average site benefits our results suggest that the circumstances under which benefit function transfer provides valid policy relevant information may be limited and that errors from applying benefit transfer can be quite large even across seemingly similar amenities

estimating mortality and economic costs of particulate air pollution in developing countries the case of nigeria the value of statistical life is an essential parameter used in ascribing monetary values to the mortality costs of air pollution in health risk analyses however this willingness to pay estimate is virtually non existent for most developing countries in the absence of local estimates two major benefit transfer approaches lend themselves to the estimation of the value of statistical life the value transfer method and the meta regression analysis using nigeria as a sample country we find that the latter method is better tailored than the former for incorporating many characteristics that vary between study sites and policy sites into its benefit transfer application it is therefore likely to provide more accurate value of statistical life predictions for very low income countries employing the meta regression method we find nigeria s value of statistical life estimate to be 489 000 combining this estimate with dose response functions from the epidemiological literature it follows that if nigeria had mitigated its 2006 particulate air pollution to the world health organisation standards it could have avoided at least 58 000 premature deaths and recorded an avoided mortality related welfare loss of about 28 billion or 19 of the nation s gdp for that year

the optimal public and private provision of safe assets abstract we develop a theory of optimal government debt in which publicly issued and privately issued safe assets are substitutes while government bonds are backed by future tax revenues privately issued safe assets are backed by the future repayment of pools of defaultable private loans we find that a higher supply of public debt crowds out privately issued safe assets less than one for one and reduces the interest spread between borrowing and deposit rates our main result is that the optimal level of public debt does not fully crowd out private lending and maintains a positive interest spread moreover the optimal level of public debt is higher the more severe are financial frictions

small business dynamics in europe this paper examines how the firm size distribution has shifted over the last two decades across a broad spectrum of european countries the evidence suggests that a shift away from large firms and towards small business has taken place particularly is the southern regions and in the high technology indutries

cyprus from boom to bail in this is a case study of how a country nearly reached bankruptcy in march 2013 within five years of entering the eurozone the magnitude of the requested assistance is extremely large relative to gdp 100 and studying this event provides useful lessons for avoiding such crises in the future the crisis resulted from a worsening european economic environment especially in greece bad choices with regards to public finances weak corporate governance within the local banking sector inadequate and or difficult regulation of cross border banking worsening competitiveness and bad political decisions at the european and especially the local cypriot level local politics reflected in short term political calculations and or inadequate understanding of the magnitude of the crisis delayed corrective action for 18 months until election time making a bad situation almost impossible to deal with overconfidence can be one behavioural explanation for why local politicians ignored the dramatic costs of inaction alexander michaelides

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

environmental value transfer state of the art and future prospects abstract the main objectives of the paper are to 1 give an overview of the state of the art of environmental value transfer 2 discuss its prospects and potential role in cba as a decision support tool and 3 provide further guidelines for proper use and application environmental value or benefit transfer is a technique in which the results of studies on monetary environmental valuation are applied to new policy contexts the technique is controversial not least because of academic and political reservations over the usefulness and technical feasibility of economic valuation tools to demonstrate the importance of environmental values in project or programme appraisals testing of environmental value transfer so far has been unable to validate the practice taking into account the conditions set out in the literature for valid and reliable value transfer most transfers appear to result in substantial transfer errors this paper discusses why and addresses the question of which factors may have been overlooked it is argued that the problem is much more fundamental than previously acknowledged strict guidelines in terms of quantitative adjustment mechanisms to valid value transfer are meaningless if the more fundamental issue of differences in the very nature of the values elicited is not addressed at the same time

the evolution of manufacturing technology and its impact on industrial structure an international study this paper shows that plant and firm size in manufacturing and especially in engineering industry in several western industrial countries has declined since the early 1970s two hypotheses explaining the decline are advanced one is de glomeration or specialization the divestiture of non core businesses in order to free up scarce resources particularly management time to defend and nurture core business activities the second hypothesis is that the emergence of new computer based technology has improved the quality and productivity of small and medium scale production relative to standardized mass production techniques which dominated previously

regime switches agents beliefs and post world war ii u s macroeconomic dynamics the evolution of inflation and output over the last 50 years is examined through the lens of a micro founded model that allows for changes in the behavior of the federal reserve and in the volatility of structural shocks agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes and their beliefs have an impact on the law of motion underlying the macroeconomy the results support the view that there were regime switches in the conduct of monetary policy however the behavior of the federal reserve is identified by repeated fluctuations between a hawk and a dove regime instead of by the traditional pre and post volcker structure counterfactual simulations show that if agents had anticipated the appointment of an extremely conservative chairman inflation would not have reached the peaks of the late 70s and the inflation output trade off would have been less severe these beliefs counterfactuals are new in the literature finally the paper provides a bayesian algorithm to handle the technical difficulties that arise in a rational expectations model with markov switching regimes

heterogeneity aggregate uncertainty and the short term interest rate this article analyzes the relationship between the short term interest rate and diversity i e the number of types in models with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets the number of types needed to approximate a continuum varies across examples in all cases however the number of types has little effect on the average interest rate and consumption variability in these models the set of state variables is large because the equilibrium law of motion depends on the cross sectional wealth distribution the article shows how to solve these models numerically by approximating the distribution using moments or percentiles

general equilibrium benefits for environmental improvements projected ozone reductions under epa s prospective analysis for the los angeles air basin abstract this research demonstrates how locational equilibrium models can be used for benefit measurement with the detail required to match epa s benefit analysis for the first prospective analysis using the projected changes in ozone concentrations for 2000 and 2010 together with the sieg et al int econ rev forthcoming estimates for household preferences for housing education and air quality this paper measures general equilibrium willingness to pay for the policy scenarios developed for the prospective study as they relate to households in the los angeles area benefits are evaluated taking account at the household level of initial air quality conditions relocation based on changes in ozone and price changes the framework generalizes the partial equilibrium general equilibrium comparisons available with conventional computable general equilibrium and property capitalization models estimated general equilibrium gains from the policy range from 33 to 2400 annually at a household level in 1990 dollars

structural benefit transfer an example using vsl estimates abstract this paper describes and illustrates a method for benefits transfer referred to as preference calibration or structural benefits transfer this approach requires selection of a preference model capable of describing individual choices over a set of market and associated non market goods to maximize utility when facing budget constraints once the structure is selected the next step involves defining the analytical expressions for the tradeoffs being represented by the set of available benefit measures these algebraic relationships are used with the benefit estimates from the literature to calibrate the parameters of the model the calibrated model then offers the basis for defining the new tradeoffs required for the policy analysis i e for transferring benefits a new application is used to illustrate the structural benefits transfer logic it involves the benefits for mortality risk reductions measured with labor market compensation a worker would accept to be willing to work with added risk the measure is usually labeled the value of a statistical life vsl our application indicates that we should not have expected differences in these measures for the economic value of risk reductions with age the calibrated estimates were not greatly different for combinations of risk levels labor supply choices wages and non wage income for older adults thus simple adjustments relying on value per discounted life year remaining seem questionable

bond market clienteles the yield curve and the optimal maturity structure of government debt we propose a clientele based model of the yield curve and optimal maturity structure of government debt clienteles are generations of agents at different life cycle stages in an overlappinggenerations economy an optimal maturity structure exists in the absence of distortionary taxes and induces efficient intergenerational risksharing if agents are more risk averse than log then an increase in the long horizon clientele raises the price and optimal supply of long term bonds but while a welfare maximizing government caters to clienteles it does not accommodate fully their demand and limits issuance of long term bonds to a level where these earn negative expected excess returns

the laffer curve revisited abstract laffer curves for the us the eu 14 and individual european countries are compared using a neoclassical growth model featuring constant frisch elasticity cfe preferences new tax rate data is provided the us can maximally increase tax revenues by 30 with labor taxes and 6 with capital taxes we obtain 8 and 1 for the eu 14 there 54 of a labor tax cut and 79 of a capital tax cut are self financing the consumption tax laffer curve does not peak endogenous growth and human capital accumulation affect the results quantitatively household heterogeneity may not be important while transition matters greatly

public versus private provision of liquidity is there a trade off abstract to what extent is public debt private liquidity much policy advice given in the aftermath of the financial crisis rests on the assumption that increasing public debt relaxes borrowing constraints of private households this is the case for ad hoc debt limits which are exogenous to public policy instead if debt limits are fully endogenous as e g in the case of the natural borrowing limit public debt has no impact we assume that borrowing limits arise because of limited contract enforceability and are therefore determined as equilibrium outcomes using an incomplete markets economy in which households are subject to uninsurable earnings shocks we show that public debt provides some liquidity but less so than it would if constraints were imposed ad hoc we show that generating borrowing constraints as an equilibrium outcome substantially alters the answers to other important questions such as for the welfare effects of government debt or its impact on real economic activity

the validity of environmental benefits transfer further empirical testing this paper provides further empirical evidence of the validity of environmental benefits transfer based on cv studies by expanding the analysis to include control factors which have not been accounted for in previous studies these factors refer to differences in respondent attitudes traditional population characteristics were taken into account but these variables do not explain why respondents from the same socio economic group may still hold different beliefs norms or values and hence have different attitudes and consequently state different wtp amounts the test results are mixed the function transfer approach is valid in one case but is rejected in the 3 other cases investigated in this paper we provide further evidence that in the case of statistically valid benefits transfer the function approach results in a more robust benefits transfer than the unit value approach we also show that the equality of coefficient estimates is a necessary but insufficient condition for valid benefit function transfer and discuss the implications for previous and future validity testing

fiscal policy with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets i undertake a quantitative investigation into the short run effects of changes in the timing of proportional income taxes for model economies in which heterogeneous households face a borrowing constraint temporary tax changes are found to have large real effects in the benchmark model a temporary tax cut increases aggregate consumption on impact by around 29 cents for every dollar of tax revenue lost comparing the benchmark incomplete markets model to a complete markets economy income tax cuts provide a larger boost to consumption and a smaller investment stimulus when asset markets are incomplete copyright 2005 wiley blackwell

spatial transferability of hedonic house price functions mcarthur d p osland l and thorsen i spatial transferability of hedonic house price functions regional studies the aim of this paper is to investigate whether it is possible to use parameter estimates from a hedonic function estimated in one region to make reliable predictions in another region two regions in south west norway are taken as the example focus is placed on the stability and transferability of parameters attached to two measures of spatial structure proximity to the central business district cbd and accessibility to the labour market in making this judgement classical statistical tests are employed alongside equivalence testing the conclusions are that predictions made using transferred spatial structure parameters were equivalent given the chosen tolerance level mcarthur d p osland l et thorsen i la transferabilite geographique des fonctions hedoniques des prix du logement regional studies cet article cherche a examiner si oui ou non on peut employer des estimations p

valuing environmental goods and services using benefit transfer the state of the art and science abstract the purpose of this special issue of ecological economics is to elucidate the state of the art and science of environmental benefit transfer and to assist in the design and reporting of future benefit estimation research compiling the insights of thirty two international experts from seven countries the special issue reviews the latest developments in transfer techniques as well as ongoing efforts to standardize and validate them taken together the papers in this special issue provide fresh answers to some long standing questions offer original research insights on state of the art issues and identify fruitful areas for future research this introductory paper provides background and context for the issues addressed by the contributing authors its purpose is to place the interdisciplinary thinking contained here in a comparative context highlighting the need for integration and collaboration to maintain the momentum that has propelled environmental benefit transfer into a widely used approach for estimating the economic value of environmental goods and services worldwide

asset pricing with limited risk sharing and heterogeneous agents we develop a model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents that generates a large equity premium while simultaneously matching stock market participation and individual asset holdings the high risk premium is driven by incomplete risk sharing among stockholders which results from the combination of aggregate uncertainty borrowing constraints and a realistically calibrated life cycle earnings profile subject to idiosyncratic shocks we show that it is challenging to simultaneously match asset pricing moments and individual portfolio decisions while limited participation has a negligible impact on the risk premium contrary to the results of models where it is imposed exogenously

nonlinear budget constraints and consumer demand an application to public programs for residential housing abstract this study presents a methodology for exploiting the nonlinear hedonic nature of housing prices to estimate the compensated demands of households for particular housing attributes the methodology is employed to provide hicksian benefit measures of a particular housing subsidy program typical of those undertaken recently in developing countries

fiscal policy in general equilibrium this paper studies four classic fiscal policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model the authors main findings are as follows 1 permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short run and long run output multipliers that exceed one 2 permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes 3 the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases and 4 public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment these findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy copyright 1993 by american economic association

combining revealed and stated preference data to estimate preferences for residential amenities a gmm approach we show how stated preference information obtained from a choice experiment and revealed preference information based on housing market transactions can be combined via generalized method of moments gmm estimation specifically we use a moment condition matching the predicted marginal willingness to pay wtp from a first stage hedonic model to the marginal wtp formula implied by the choice experiment utility function this is coupled with other moments from the choice experiment to produce gmm based estimates of parameters that reflect the strengths of each data source our application values remediation of a contaminated site in buffalo new york and we find evidence in support of estimates arising from our approach jel q51 q53

long run implications of investment specific technological change an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional hicksneutral form of technological progress the balanced growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to u s national income and product account nipa data the quantitative analysis suggests that investment specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth jel e13 030 041 047

price pressure in the government bond market what determines the term structure of interest rates standard economic theory links the interest rate for maturity t to the willingness of a representative agent to substitute consumption between times 0 and t the standard model contrasts sharply with a more informal view based on investors preferred habitat proposed by john culbertson 1957 and franco modigliani and richard sutch 1966 according to the preferred habitat view there are investor clienteles with preferences for specific maturities and the interest rate for a given maturity is influenced by the demand of the corresponding clientele and the supply of bonds with that maturity for example the typical clientele for long term bonds are pension funds an increase in their demand would be expected to raise prices of long term bonds and thus lower long term interest rates in short preferred habitat implies that there is price pressure in the bond market while the preferred habitat view has intuitive appeal it has not entered into the academic mainstream typically being relegated to a paragraph in mba level textbooks one reason for this is the mixed findings in early empirical studies of the term structure specifically between 1962 and 1964 the us treasury and federal reserve raised the supply of short term government debt while simultaneously lowering the supply of long term debt this program known as operation twist aimed to raise shortterm interest rates and so improve the balance of payments while also lowering long term rates to stimulate private investment a number of papers evaluated operation twist and while they reached different conclusions none found strong evidence that the operation was effective in flattening the term structure e g modigliani price pressure in the government bond market

benefit transfer via preference calibration prudential algebra for policy this paper proposes a new approach to benefit transfer the method assumes a specific form for preferences and uses available benefit information to identify and calibrate the preference parameters to match the existing benefit estimates this approach assures economic consistency of the transfers benefit measures can never be inconsistent with household income the logic also offers a series of potentially observable predictions that can be used to gauge the plausibility of benefit transfers when multiple benefit estimates from different methods are available such as hedonic property value travel cost demand and contingent valuation the framework uses the definition of the benefit concept from each method in a single preference function to reconcile differences it provides a specific way to take account of baseline conditions and scope effects i e the size of the proposed change consistently in the transfer the method is illustrated using estimates for benefit measure changes in water quality from three studies travel cost demand hedonic property value and contingent valuation analysis q26

fiscal policy and asset prices with incomplete markets we study the simultaneous impact of fiscal policy decisions on macroeconomic activity wealth distribution and asset prices we consider a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents where government debt and capital are imperfect substitutes increases in public debt lead to significant increases in the riskless rate and to a reduction in the equity premium while higher capital income tax rates lead to a higher equity premium the crowding out effects on capital and output are much higher than in models where government debt and capital are perfect substitutes which thus ignore households portfolio reallocation decisions the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

hedonic prices and implicit markets estimating demand and supply functions for differentiated products in choosing the level of quality to purchase the buyer of a differentiated product also chooses a point on the marginal price schedule for that product hence in general the demand functions for product characteristics cannot be consistently estimated by ordinary least squares market equilibrium results in a matching of characteristics of demanders and suppliers this matching restricts the use of buyer and seller characteristics as instruments when estimating demand and supply functions for product characteristics the paper develops these issues a stochastic structure for hedonic equilibrium models is then proposed identification results are presented and estimation procedures are outlined