the term structure of euromarket interest rates an empirical investigation abstract this paper is an empirical investigation of the predictability and co movement of risk premia in the term structure of euromarket interest rates we present regression results which suggest that risk premia in three euromarket term structures and on uncovered foreign asset positions move together we test formally the hypothesis that these risk premia move in proportion to a single latent variable we are unable to reject this hypothesis the single latent variable model can be interpreted as in hansen and hodrick 1983 and hodrick and srivastava 1984 as a specialization of the icapm in which assets have constant betas on a single unobservable benchmark portfolio

growth accumulation and unproductive activity an analysis of the postwar u s economy preface 1 introduction 2 unproductive activity in a capitalist society 3 a marxian accounting framework 4 a growth model of accumulation and unproductive labor 5 rise of unproductive activity in postwar economy 6 absorption of labor and capital and rate of surplus value 7 absorption of new resources and growth in real income 8 conclusions and speculations appendix data sources and methods references index

rising inequality as a cause of the present crisis the article argues that the economic imbalances that caused the present crisis should be thought of as the outcome of the interaction of the effects of financial deregulation with the macroeconomic effects of rising inequality in this sense rising inequality should be regarded as a root cause of the present crisis i identify four channels by which it has contributed to the crisis first rising inequality creates a downwards pressure on aggregate demand since poorer income groups have high marginal propensities to consume second international financial deregulation has allowed countries to run larger current account deficits and for longer time periods thus in reaction to potentially stagnant demand two growth models have emerged a debt led model and an export led model third in the debt led growth models higher inequality has led to higher household debt as working class families have tried to keep up with social consumption norms despite stagnating or falling real wages fourth rising inequality has increased the propensity to speculate as richer households tend to hold riskier financial assets than other groups the rise of hedge funds and of subprime derivatives in particular has been linked to rise of the super rich

top income shares and aggregate wealth income ratio in a two class corporate economy this paper examines some determinants of top income shares and the aggregate wealth income ratio in the usa the paper first points out the difficulties in piketty s neo classical version of explanation of us income inequality which stresses the effect of the rising aggregate wealth income ratio and high elasticity of factor substitution second the analysis based on a cambridge two class model along the lines of kaldor 1955 56 1966 and pasinetti 1962 highlights the role of financialization in increasing inequality third the analysis suggests that the rise in the aggregate wealth income ratio from 1980 to 2007 in the usa is explained mostly by asset price inflation not by technical relations finally the analysis examines the effects of the slowdown in capital accumulation on income distribution and wealth income ratios which are very different from those in piketty s capital in the twenty first century

estimation and simulation of risk premia in equity and foreign exchange markets abstract there is substantial evidence to reject constant risk premia financial models while time varying risk premia are often mentioned as an alternative the literature has yet to produce an example that accounts for the important time series properties of asset returns we inquire whether mean variance optimization models can do so we model asset risk with an absolute error version of the arch in mean hypothesis and model hedging motives that derive from variation in future real income and inflation to account for agent heterogeneity we consider a three country and two asset world our model predicts values for five excess returns relative to the us bill rate we use a systems approach to estimate the model parameters and then simulate the estimated model to determine if it can account for the important time series properties of risk premia

globalization and the great u turn income inequality trends in 16 oecd countries the debate on the resurgence of income inequality in some advanced industrial societies has often focused on the impact of an increasingly integrated world economy typified by growing capital mobility heightened international competition and an increase in migration this study represents one of the first systematic cross national examinations of the role of globalization in the inequality u turn results indicate on the one hand that total inequality variation is principally affected by the percentage of the labor force in agriculture followed by the institutional factors union density and decommodification and only then by globalization on the other hand longitudinal variation in inequality while still dominated by the percentage of the labor force in agriculture is also principally affected by aspects of globalization such as southern import penetration and direct investment outflow and to a lesser extent by migration in other words globalization explains the longitudinal trend of inc

corporatism and unemployment in the 1980s and 1990s a number of studies have found an association between corporatist institutions and low unemployment in the 1970s and or 1980s three gaps in our understanding of corporatism s labor market effects are addressed here 1 which of the two principal forms of corporatism corporatist wage setting or union participation in economic policymaking or both generates these effects 2 what are the causal mechanisms 3 did these effects continue in the 1990s in the face of globalization restrictive monetary policy growing dissension within labor movements and related developments the impact of corporatism across 16 affluent oecd countries in the 1980s and 1990s is assessed using pooled time series cross section analysis the results suggest that wage coordination was conducive to low unemployment in the 1980s because it fostered moderation in labor costs spurred faster economic growth and encouraged governments to more aggressively pursue policies to reduce unemployment in the 1990s this effect disappeared largely because unemployment outcomes in low wage coordination countries improved rather than because unemployment outcomes in high wage coordination countries deteriorated union participation in economic policymaking was associated with low unemployment throughout the two decades conditional on the presence of leftist government union participation appears to have had this effect mainly via government policy

implicit contracts moral hazard and unemployment this paper considers a firm whose marginal revenue product of labor is a random variable we derive the form of an optimal long term contract between workers and the firm under the assumption that labor s marginal product is observed by the firm but not by the workers we show that the existence of asymmetric information causes unemployment to be greater than in a situation where information about labor s marginal product is public or where employment is determined in spot markets in particular unemployment can occur when the marginal product of labor exceeds the reservation wage

the determination of escalator clauses in collective agreements u ntil very recently the literature on the wider usage of escalator clauses has dealt mainly with their impact on inflation unemployment the trade balance and the exchange rate it is equally important however to understand why and in what circumstances employers and labor unions agree to incorporate such clauses in work contracts in the past few years shavell 1976 azariadis 1978 and blinder 1978 have outlined a theoretical framework for explaining the emergence of indexation to the best of our knowledge however none of the assumptions deriving from these models have been subjected to empirical testing the purpose of this paper is first to develop and test a number of these assumptions and second to consider the problem of simultaneity between two types of adjustments to inflation indexation versus shorter contract duration in the first section we summarize the contributions of the three aforementioned authors to the theory of wage indexation and extract from them a number of verifiable assumptions the second section provides an empirical framework since adjustments to uncertainty about inflation can take the form of shorter contract duration or indexation those two variables are simultaneously determined to overcome the problem of dummy endogenous variables in a simultaneous equation system we have applied the method suggested by heckman 1978 based on the use of maximum likelihood estimators in the third section we analyse the results and in the conclusion we draw their implications for economic policy

stock market returns and inflation evidence from other countries this paper investigates the relation between common stock returns and inflation in twenty six countries for the postwar period our results do not support the fisher hypothesis which states that real rates of return on common stocks and expected inflation rates are independent and that nominal stock returns vary in one to one correspondence with expected inflation there is a consistent lack of positive relation between stock returns and inflation in most of the countries

the role of intangible assets in explaining the investment profit puzzle starting around the early 2000s and especially after the 2008 crisis the rate of capital accumulation for us nonfinancial corporations has slowed down despite relatively high profitability indicating a weakening of the link between profitability and investment while the literature mostly focuses on financialisation and globalisation as the reasons behind this slowdown i suggest adding another layer to these explanations and argue that in conjunction with financialisation and globalisation we need to pay attention to the increased use of intangible assets by nonfinancial corporations in the last two decades intangibles such as brand names trademarks patents and copyrights play a role in the widening of the profit investment gap as the use of these assets enables firms to increase market power and profitability without necessarily generating a corresponding increase in fixed capital investment after discussing the ways nonfinancial corporations use intangible assets i look at large corporations in the usa and find the following i the ratio of intangible assets to the capital stock increased in general this increase is highest for firms in high technology healthcare nondurables and telecommunications ii industries with higher intangible asset ratios have lower investment to profit ratios iii industries with higher intangible asset ratios have higher markups and profitability iv the composition of the nonfinancial corporate sector has changed and the weight of high technology and healthcare firms has increased but this increase did not correspond to an equal increase in their investment share the decline in the investment share of durables nondurables and machinery is matched by an increase in the investment share of location specific industries with low intangible asset use most notably firms in energy extraction in general these firms have steadier markups and higher investment to profit ratios v yet intangible intensive industries profitability has increased faster than their share of investment or total assets all in all these findings are in line with the suggestion that the increased use of intangible assets enables firms to have high profitability without a corresponding increase in investment

international stock market linkages evidence from the pre and post october 1987 period abstract this paper uses recent developments in the theory of cointegration to provide new methods of testing the linkage and dynamic interactions among stock market movements our findings are in sharp contrast with previous research which discovered strong interdependence among national stock markets prior to october 1987 for the post october 1987 period however our results show that the degree of international co movements among stock price indices has increased substantially with the nikkei index the only exception furthermore the us stock market is found to have a considerable impact on the french german and uk markets in the post crash period we also find the response of the french german and uk markets to us stock market innovations to be consistent with the view of cross border informationally efficient stock markets finally we find the japanese equity market performance to have no links with both the us stock market and the stock markets in france germany and uk during the pre and post october crash period

in search of the exchange risk premium a six currency test assuming mean variance optimization abstract a number of authors examining deviations of actual rates of currency depreciation from forward discounts have claimed to find evidence of risk premiums if these deviations are indeed partly due to risk premiums rather than being entirely due to expectational errors then they should be systematically related to those variables on which risk premiums are thought to depend finance theory tells us that if investors optimize with respect to mean and variance the risk premium depends in a specific way on 1 the supplies of assets denominated in the various currencies 2 the variance covariance matrix of the rates of return and 3 the coefficient of risk aversion the null hypothesis of this paper is that the coefficient of risk aversion is zero countries assets are perfect substitutes and risk premiums are nonexistent the alternative hypothesis is that rates of return are systematically related to asset supplies by a macroeconomic portfolio balance function the maximum likelihood technique used dominates previous attempts to find such a relationship in that the parameters of the portfolio balance function are constrained to depend on the variance covariance matrix as the finance theory says they should on the other hand the technique also dominates previous applications of the finance theory in that the expected returns are allowed to vary over time as the macroeconomic portfolio balance theory says they should the paper s finding is a statistical inability to reject the null hypothesis for a portfolio of six currencies although this could be due to low power in the test

distributive shares in the us economy 1964 2001 specifying the labour theory of value in a way that distinguishes both productive from unproductive labour and production workers from supervisory workers this paper considers distributive shares in the us economy between 1964 and 2001 trends in productive and unproductive labour are explored in full time equivalents hours and money after 1979 there was a large shift of money value not matched by a shift in either hours or employment from the wages paid to productive labour to those paid to supervisory labour since the wage share in money value added of non supervisory labour in unproductive sectors was approximately constant the 1980s and 1990s also saw the profits share squeezed by the rising wage share of supervisory workers some implications of this are explored in the construction of a class rather than a factor approach to distributive shares

dark matter black holes and old fashioned exploitation transnational corporations and the us economy in advanced economies foreign direct investment fdi is usually a two way process involving both inwards and outwards investment often in the same industries why then is us fdi so profitable whilst fdi in the usa is conspicuous in its unprofitability using sectoral based data from 1999 to 2005 to investigate this puzzle i find that us owned fdi usdia demonstrates far higher returns particularly relative to foreign owned direct investment in the usa fdius but also compared to all us based industries nipa fdius is the worst performing of all three portfolios exhibiting the poorest and most volatile returns for the period examined these results hold for both the aggregate non financial data as well as for the narrow measured value added for the period tested us inwards fdi isn t employment generating whereas us direct investment abroad produces the fastest gains in labour productivity output employment investment expenditures and tax revenues whilst it is debatable that dark matter or intangible proprietary assets drive superior relative returns to usdia labour exploitation appears to play a role increases in labour productivity coupled with declining wage shares for all three portfolios especially pronounced for usdia suggest race to bottom outcomes a burgeoning aspect of this race is cross border profit shifting to minimise firms global tax burdens i suspect but am unable to confirm that profits are being shifted overseas vanishing into the black holes of tax havens transfer pricing and other modes of tax avoidance

the middle class in macroeconomics and growth theory a three class neo kaleckian goodwin model this paper presents a three class growth model with labor market conflict the classes are workers a middle management middle class and a top management capitalist class the model introduces personal income distribution that supplements conventional concerns with functional income distribution within such a model endogenously generated changes in personal income distribution can generate endogenous shifts from profit led to wage led regimes and vice versa a model of an economy with three classes enables us to consider richer patterns of class conflict because the middle class has shared interests and conflicts with both capitalists and workers changes that benefit the middle class do not necessarily increase growth or employment or benefit workers

common stochastic trends in international stock markets abstract this paper presents evidence concerning the number of common stochastic trends in the equity markets of the u s japan england germany and canada monthly and quarterly data from january 1974 through august 1990 on morgan stanley s capital international indices are used to compute johansen 1990 tests for common trends the results indicate the presence of a single common trend driving these countries stock markets estimates of the factor loadings suggest that this trend is most important in the japanese market and least important in the canadian market to interpret this evidence the paper demonstrates that under weak conditions the unit root and cointegration structure of stock prices should mirror the unit root and cointegration structure of their dividend payments the paper tests this prediction by constructing national dividend series from capital international s dividend yield data as well as by using gnp data as with stock prices the evidence points to a single common trend although the stochastic properties and relative importance of this trend differs somewhat from the trend in stock prices

an analysis of bank loan rate indexation this paper examines the economic rationale for the use of bank loan commitments and the effect on the allocation of bank credit of indexing the loan rate offered through the commitment to the prime a simple model of the loan market is constructed and used to examine the effect changes in loan demand and the cost of bank funds have on the allocation of bank credit under indexation it is shown that indexing implies changes in the relative cost of borrowing for certain groups of bank customers for nonprime customers an increase in the cost of bank funds results in a decline in the relative cost of borrowing under commitments the pattern of commitment use is found to be consistent with the predictions of the model recent surveys have found that the majority of commercial and industrial loans are made under pre existing loan commitments these surveys also find that for most commercial and industrial loans the interest rate is tied or indexed to the prime rate although indexing loan rates is widespread there has been little theoretical or empirical work on the effect of this pricing scheme on the allocation of bank credit the paucity of research in this area is surprising considering the frequency with which indexed contracts are used and the current controversy surrounding the use of the prime as an index 2 the purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the effect of indexed loan rates on the intertemporal allocation of bank credit a simple model of the loan market is constructed and used to examine the effect changes in the cost of bank funds and changes in loan demand have on the allocation of credit under indexation use of this model demonstrates that indexed contracts do not result in an efficient allocation in the sense that the resulting allocation does not replicate the allocation obtained with complete contingent contracts finally the model is tested empirically using data on commitment use from the quarterly survey of the terms of commercial bank lending it is shown that indexing

working class power capitalist class interests and class compromise this article proposes a general theoretical framework for understanding the concept of class compromise in terms of a reverse j model of the relationship between the associational power of workers and the interests of capitalists increases in working class power adversely affect capitalist class interests until such power crosses some intermediate threshold beyond which further increases in working class power are potentially beneficial to capitalists interests this article argues that the reverse j curve is itself the result of two distinct kinds of effects of workers power on capitalists interests one a negative effect in which workers power undermines the capacity of capitalists to unilaterally make various kinds of decisions and the second a positive effect in which workers power helps capitalists solve the various kinds of collective action problems they face

social class and income inequality in the united states ownership authority and personal income distribution from 1980 to 2010 this study outlines a theory of social class based on workplace ownership and authority relations and it investigates the link between social class and growth in personal income inequality since the 1980s inequality trends are governed by changes in between class income differences changes in the relative size of different classes and changes in within class income dispersion data from the general social survey are used to investigate each of these changes in turn and to evaluate their impact on growth in inequality at the population level results indicate that between class income differences grew by about 60 since the 1980s and that the relative size of different classes remained fairly stable a formal decomposition analysis indicates that changes in the relative size of different social classes had a small dampening effect and that growth in between class income differences had a large inflationary effect on trends in personal income inequality

implicit contracts in the japanese bank loan market the implicit contract theory explored by azariadis 2 suggests that wage rigidity and underemployment are explained by the microeconomic optimizing behavior of each agent in the labor market in this theory the former phenomenon is interpreted as risk sharing arrangements between firms and workers whereas the latter may occur when workers have the opportunity to use leisure or unemployment insurance benefits

finance dominated capitalism and re distribution of income a kaleckian perspective in this article a major channel through which financialisation or finance dominated capitalism affects macroeconomic performance is examined the distribution channel empirical data for the following dimensions of re distribution in the period of finance dominated capitalism since the early 1980s is provided for 15 advanced capitalist economies functional distribution personal household distribution and the share and the composition of top incomes based on the kaleckian approach to the determination of income shares the effects of financialisation on functional income distribution are studied in more detail some stylised facts of financialisation are integrated into the kaleckian approach and by means of reviewing empirical and econometric literature it is found that financialisation and neoliberalism have contributed to the falling labour income share since the early 1980s through three main kaleckian channels 1 a shift in the sectoral composition of the economy 2 an increase in management salaries and rising profit claims of the rentiers and thus in overheads and 3 weakened trade union bargaining power

the time variation of risk and return in the foreign exchange and stock markets this paper attempts to determine whether the fluctuations of conditional first and second moments which are observed for many assets are consistent with the sharpelintner mossin capital asset pricing model we test the mean variance model under several different assumptions about the time variation of conditional second moments of returns using weekly data from july 1974 to december 1986 that include returns on a portfolio composed of dollar deutsche mark sterling and swiss franc assets together with the u s stock market the results indicate that estimated conditional variances cannot explain the observed time variation of risk premia rates of return on international financial assets are characterized by statistical properties that are quite common to all financial markets they are highly volatile and largely unpredictable these properties make it very difficult to extract statistically reliable estimates of systematic exchange rate and assetprice movements and are at the root of the generally poor empirical performance of international asset pricing models nevertheless two important results have been uncovered by empirical researchers and can be considered a fair characterization of the data a expected returns on foreign assets vary over time cumby and obstfeld 1981 and the numerous articles that followed recently surveyed by frankel and meese 1987 b the volatility of returns of foreign assets also changes over time cumby and obstfeld 1984 hodrick and srivastava 1984 and hsieh 1988 among others as giovannini and jorion 1987 suggest the

cooperation and political economic performance in affluent democratic capitalism research on comparative political economic performance has traditionally followed two separate tracks one concerned with collective economic gain growth and efficiency and the other focused on distribution and redistribution cooperative institutions offer a key to understanding cross national variation among the affluent capitalist democracies in both facets of political economic performance these institutions cluster along two dimensions neocorporatism and firm level cooperation pooled time series analysis for 18 nations over 1960 89 suggests that 1 neocorporatism is a major source of distributive redistributive policies and outcomes and of several sources of collective gain 2 firm level cooperation is a key contributor to economic growth

rates of return on capital across the world are they converging this article estimates levels and identifies trends in the profitability of capital in a broad sample of developed developing and post communist transition economies making up over 80 of global output the underlying distributional and efficiency determinants of profitability are considered in the marxian analytical framework for the period of 1995 2007 leading to the great recession our estimates indicate a trend towards convergence of national profit rates largely driven by the convergence of profitability in developing and transition economies during this period the level of profit rates in all groups of countries experienced growth with the global capital weighted rate of profit increasing by approximately 50 the main contributor to this growth in all groups of countries was the increase in average productivity of capital measured by output capital ratio in developed and transition economies the increase in profit shares of national income and the decline in the relative price of capital goods also contributed to profitability growth in the same period for developing countries profit shares and relative prices were relatively stable

optimal labour contracts under asymmetric information an introduction the review of economic studies has instituted a new series of lectures to be given annually by a younger british economist at the association of university teachers of economics meetings the choice of lecturer is determined by a panel whose members are currently professors hahn mirrlees and nobay this paper is a revised version of the first lecture in the series it was presented at the aute meeting held at the university of surrey in april 1982 and was refereed in the usual way mak

tests of international capm with time varying covariances we perform maximum likelihood estimation of a model of international asset pricing based on capm we test the restrictions imposed by capm against a more general asset pricing model the betas in our capm vary over time as the supplies of assets change and as the conditional covariances or returns on those assets change we let the covariances change over time as a function of macroeconomic data and an alternative model allows the covariances to follow a multivariate arch process we also can identify a modified capm model with measurement error we find that the estimated capm performs much better when variances are not constant over time nonetheless capm is rejected in favour of the lessrestricted model of asset pricing

fiscal policy and class income inequality the distributional consequences of governmental revenues and expenditures in the united states 1949 1976 despite the vast expansion in governmental spending during the post second world war era few researchers have sought to analyze the income distributional consequences of state fiscal policies the present research initially elaborates three abstract perspectives on the state and on united states budgetary practices then using factor share income as a proxy for broad class groupings this research provides a time series regression analysis of the impact of state expenditures and revenue extraction on the distribution of income in the united states for the years 1949 1976 results suggest that governmental revenue policies have had a procapital bias while state expenditures have tended to favor labor relative to capital the net impact of these contradictory tendencies has left the market based income distribution relatively unchanged despite the sizeable growth of the public sector during the period under study

the effect of foreign acquisition on employment and wages evidence from finnish establishments employee characteristics by skill groups makes it possible to disentangle the effect of foreign ownership on wages from its effects on the quality of the workforce furthermore this information allows us to examine the heterogeneity of the effect of foreign acquisition on wages and employment third the long timespan of our data thirteen years enables us to consider the effects of foreign acquisition in the long run hiring and firing costs may delay the effects of foreign acquisition by looking at the effects of acquisition in several periods after it has taken place these delays can be taken into account we believe finland to be an interesting case study for the effects of foreign ownership it is a typical example of a small open economy where foreign investment plays an important role furthermore our data cover the years 1988 2001 when the share of foreign direct investments rose rapidly in finland this increase is depicted in figure 1 and it partly reflects the worldwide trend in foreign direct investment but the years 1988 2001 were also characterized by two phenomena which undoubtedly led to the increase in the share of foreign owned firms first finland experienced a very severe recession in the early 1990s and the recovery from this crisis was associated with a rapid restructuring of the economy and a growth of new industries in particular the export oriented high tech sector 2 second finland joined the european union in 1995 which naturally removed a considerable number of barriers to foreign investment in the finnish economy the results derived by both matching and regression methods indicate that foreign acquisition has a positive effect on wages in all skill groups this wage increase is not immediate but occurs within one to three years after the acquisition the magnitude of this effect increases with the level of schooling of the workers the results indicate that there is a small decrease in the share of highly educated workers after foreign acquisition the decrease in the share of highly educated workers after acquisition also seems to hold for domestic acquisitions the paper is organized as follows the next section briefly describes the theoretical background for the analysis and reviews some previous empirical findings the third section describes the statistical framework and the fourth section presents the data sets the results are provided in the fifth section the last section concludes the paper

inequality income growth and mobility the basic facts during the 1950s and 1960s mean wages in the united states grew rapidly and the dispersion around this growing mean changed very litde starting in the 1970s and continuing into the 1980s and 1990s these patterns were reversed mean wages grew slowly and inequality increased rapidly these changes in labor markets were reflected in changes in the distribution of family income the mean of the distribution of family income did increase after 1973 in spite of the near constancy of mean real wages as family members increased the number of hours they worked however the increase in inequality of wages was mirrored by an increase in the dispersion of family income a large descriptive literature has documented the rise in inequality while a smaller behavioral literature has sought to delineate the causes of this rise these changes in the distribution of family income a fected rates of poverty directly during the 1950s and 1960s temporary increases in poverty during recessions were more than offset by declines in poverty during economic expansions as long as the poor gained along with everyone else fi om the secular growth in the mean one could be confident that poverty rates would ratchet down this is exactly what happened as poverty rates fell from 22 4 percent in 1959 to 11 1 percent in 1973

on measuring the wealth of nations the us economy 1964 2001 this paper examines the methodology of shaikh and tonak measuring the wealth of nations 1994 underlying their calculation of estimates of productive labour in the us economy from 1964 to 2001 the focus is not on the results but on the methods that generate them the paper finds that the compromises made by shaikh and tonak because of data unavailability are unreliable and that better approximations are possible on this latter basis the shaikh and tonak methodology can be used to provide the labour and wage estimates needed for empirical investigations in the surplus based tradition copyright 2005 oxford university press

accounting for labors share class and income distribution in the printing industry this study investigates the distribution of income between capital and labor in the printing and publishing industry the authors first compare a variety of conceptualizations and operational measures of labor s share and then estimate models for the period 1946 78 that explain the movements in several share measures on the basis of variables that represent the differential power of labor and capital their findings indicate that worker power particularly the extent of unionism and sometimes strike frequency increased labor s share especially in the 1946 62 period whereas employer power asset size and capital intensity decreased it

the central government private sector wage differential since ehrenberg and schwarz 1986 there has been a plethora of articles investigating the relationship between public and private sector wages this article examines part of this post 1986 literature by reviewing articles that examine central government private sector wage differentials in sum most articles find that there is a premium paid to central government workers although the premium has declined in recent years in developing countries however the differential is usually negative women and minorities tend to do better in the public sector relative to their private sector counterparts the evidence on union premiums between sectors is mixed although the premium tends to be higher in the private sector however public sector union workers do not do much better than private sector union members the magnitude of all of the wage differentials discussed are sensitive to the estimation technique and data source used the most common explanation for the public sector wage premium is economic rent accruing to government workers although the public sector wage determination literature suggests that the differential is due to returns to political and vote producing activities not relevant in the private sector

a neo kaleckian goodwin model of capitalist economic growth monopoly power managerial pay and labour market conflict this paper presents a neo kaleckian goodwin model of growth and distribution the key innovation is the introduction of managerial pay kaleckian monopoly power determines the functional distribution of income and goodwin labour bargaining power determines the wage bill division the model helps explain slower us growth over the past 30 years for much of that period the functional distribution of income was relatively constant but growth slowed because income inequality increased owing to a wage bill shift from workers to managers the wage bill division effect explains why economies can display wage led and profit led characteristics economies can be profit led regarding functional income distribution and wage led regarding wage bill distribution

technical and structural change and the fall in the manufacturing output capital ratio in mexico 1990 2015 the article studies the fall in the manufacturing output capital oc ratio in mexico in the post trade liberalisation period 1990 2015 from a classical perspective a pattern of falling oc ratio rising labour productivity and greater capital intensity can be interpreted as a case of marx biased technical change a within between industry decomposition shows however that in mexico the fall in the average oc ratio reflects not only within industry technical change but also structural change in the form of a change in the composition of the capital stock towards industries with low or declining oc ratios econometric estimations moreover show that within industry technical change was not related to the initial level or change in domestic labour costs as in the dominant interpretation of the sources of marx biased technical change but was driven instead by mexico s industrial integration with the usa within industry technical change and convergence to us oc ratios dominated in an early phase but were replaced by structural change and divergence in a later phase following the china shock of the early 2000s irrespective of the source of change in the average oc ratio though both within industry technical change in the early phase and structural change in the late one tended to reduce the average profit rate in the mexican manufacturing sector

turnover time and the organic composition of capital this article argues that marx s key concepts of the organic and value compositions of capital depend on his concept of the turnover time of variable capital methods are given for measuring these three indicators which are applied to the us national accounts from 1947 onwards the results show unambiguous tendencies for the organic and value compositions of capital to rise and for the turnover time of variable capital to fall this is consistent with marx s predictions in capital and his explanation for the tendency of the rate of profit to fall

macroeconomic effects of regulation and deregulation in goods and labor markets product and labor market deregulation reduce and redistribute rents leading economic players to adjust to this new distribution it typically comes with distribution and dynamic effects to study these effects we build a macroeconomic model on two central assumptions monopolistic competition in the goods market which determines the size of rents and bargaining in the labor market which determines the distribution of rents product market regulation determines entry costs and the degree of competition labor market regulation determines the bargaining power of workers we show the effects of deregulation we then use our results to discuss the political economy of deregulation and recent macroeconomic evolutions in europe

do asset demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns a six currency test abstract international asset demands are functions of expected returns optimal portfolio theory tells us that the coefficients in this relationship depend on the variance covariance matrix of real returns but previous estimates of the optimal portfolio 1 assume expected returns constant and 2 are not set up to test the hypothesis of mean variance optimization we use maximum likelihood estimation to impose a constraint between the coefficients and the error variance covariance matrix for a portfolio of six currencies we are able statistically to reject the constraint evidently investors are either not sophisticated enough to maximize a function of the mean and variance of end of period wealth or else are too sophisticated to do so

credit rationing and implicit contract theory an empirical study abstract this paper investigate whether or not implicit contract relations predominate in the japanese bank loan market and produce equilibrium credit rationing the empirical evidence suggests that risks are shared between banks and firms through interest rate arrangements this implies that commercial banks in japan operate in a market dominated by implicit contract relations however the evidence does not support the view that japanese commercial banks execute credit rationing in the sense of fried and howitt 1980 furthermore the results show that large banks differ from small banks in the risk consideration of loan contracts these empirical results are completely consistent with the intermarket business group hypothesis such that the group formation aims to share risks and profits among members

fixed versus variable rate loans this paper discusses the nature of fixed and variable loan contracts and derives the conditions which determine the optimal quantity of each the results indicate that the payoff functions are quite different and dependent upon the project financed the appropriate conditions for the allocation of loan terms to a set of borrowers are then developed finally the analysis derives the optimal portfolio frontier and risk return trade off for the banking firm here it is demonstrated that the solution is unlikely to be at a point of zero interest rate risk

a re in statement of the labour theory of value this paper surveys and argues for an account of labor values and prices in the marxian tradition that is not subject to the usual criticisms concerning their conceptual coherence and empirical relevance this reformulation first suggested independently of each other by g dumeenil and d k foley provides a powerful account that overturns almost a century of misconceived orthodoxy in doing so it enables a theoretically coherent account of the value of labor power and an empirical account of the fundamental categories of capitalism copyright 1994 by oxford university press

employment with asymmetric information in an economy without informational and other distortions entrepreneurs and workers can write labor contracts that support a pareto optimal allocation of resources this paper is an attempt to characterize contracts when enterpreneurs are better informed about the state of nature than are their workers asymmetric information generally results in a suboptimal allocation of both risk and worker effort in particular if consumption and leisure are perfect substitutes employment will be less than fully pareto optimal in all but the most favorable states of nature

the effect of unions on wage inequality in the u s labor market this study uses current population survey micro data for 1973 74 and 1993 to evaluate the effect of changing union membership on trends in male and female wage inequality unionization rates of men fell between the two sample periods with bigger declines among lower skill groups these trends account for 15 20 of the rise in male wage inequality union membership rates of low wage women also declined while unionization increased among higher wage women on balance shifting unionization accounts for very little of the rise in female wage inequality economy wide trends in unionization mask a sharp divergence between the private sector where unionism was declining and the public sector where it was rising comparisons across sectors suggest that unionization substantially slowed the growth in wage inequality in the public sector

profit growth in boom and bust the great recession and the great depression in comparative perspective the great recession of 2007 2009 and the great depression of the 1930s were triggered by the collapse of asset price bubbles however preexisting structural imbalances in the us economy were the reason why the burst of speculative bubbles induced a general economic collapse this article argues that the imbalance created by the combination of stagnant labor earnings and surging corporate profits not only played a leading role in the run up to the downturns but also was chiefly responsible for the slow recoveries on the one hand the relative stagnation of labor income represented a key factor behind rising income inequality and a potential drag on consumption which was temporarily alleviated by credit expansion hence the rising household debt levels eventually became unsustainable on the other hand rising corporate profits created an overhang of idle money eager to lend itself to speculative ventures which played a key role in fueling the stock market bubble of the 1920s and the housing bubble of the 2000s the article further argues that despite various superficial and deeper similarities between the circumstances surrounding the great recession and the great depression some fundamental differences in the structure of the us economy then and now suggest vastly different future prospects for american capitalism

money supply class power and inflation monetarism reassessed recent sociological work shows that pro market neoliberal policies across advanced capitalist countries are due to distributional struggle between classes in the 1970s and 1980s the orthodox monetarist view alternatively sees neoliberal reform as a nonpolitical attempt to end the stagflation crisis of the 1970s from this perspective monetary and fiscal expansions brought high inflation and central bank discipline and government austerity is the solution but the recent trend of low inflation despite accelerating money growth and government spending contradicts this view analyses of time series cross section data for 23 oecd countries from 1960 to 2009 support the thesis that the rise and fall of inflation is more about distribution of power between labor and capital than about monetary and fiscal discipline inflation in the 1970s originated from a strong working class and hurt capital more than it did workers while neoliberal repression of workers power has kept inflation low from the 1980s onwa

the decline of the labor income share in mexico 1990 2015 abstract the paper studies the decline of the labor income share lis in mexico during the period 1990 2015 the decline is mostly explained by reductions within the economy s major sectors including manufacturing tradables and non tradables rather than by a recomposition of value added towards sectors with low labor shares in contrast to agriculture where lis fell due to a shift of labor force from self employment to wage employment in other major areas of the economy the fall in lis is explained by reductions within the wage employment sector econometric estimations indicate that parallel declines in the wage share and relative productivity of non tradables and in the us manufacturing labor share all played a large role in the reduction of the manufacturing wage share in mexico more generally the analysis suggests that the lagging productivity of the economy s informal non tradable sector itself a reflection of the country s low aggregate rate of economic growth is a crucial factor in the fall of lis in the formal sectors the paper concludes by discussing possible explanations for the paradox of the slow rate of economic growth in mexico despite the rise in the profit share

the decentralization of collective bargaining a literature review and comparative analysis the author reviews evidence that the bargaining structure is becoming more decentralized in sweden australia the former west germany italy the united kingdom and the united states although in

too bright for comfort a kaleckian view of profit realisation in the usa 1964 2009 this paper uses modern gross national product accounting conventions to chart the various expenditures responsible for profit realisation from 1964 to 2009 in the usa revealed are significant changes in the main drivers of profit realisation after 1982 specifically the shifting distribution of income away from median workers and the use of debt are increasingly responsible for profit realisation after 1982 this represents a significant aspect of the economy that set the environment for the recent crisis and has implications for a post crisis economy as well

gender the welfare state and public employment a comparative study of seven industrialized countries using data from the luxembourg income study lis the authors explore the influence of government employment on the gender gap in earnings in seven countries they address four questions on the effects of public sector employment on the gender gap in earnings 1 do governments offer jobs that are comparatively high paying 2 does public employment benefit some workers such as low paid workers more than others 3 are public sector employment advantages explained by differences in worker characteristics and the occupational mix 4 what is the effect of public employment its extent and its pay structure on gender gaps in wages the results indicate marked variation across liberal conservative and social democratic welfare states but reveal a number of uniformities as well in most of the seven countries in the sample public sector workers earn more on average than do workers in the private sector and most earnings advantages are concentrated on the low end of the earnings distribution the effect of public employment on the overall gender gap in wages is limited in most countries the authors discuss the implications of these results for theory and research on gender and the welfare state

people flows in globalization the policy debate over globalization in the past decade has largely bypassed the international mobility of labor restrict trade and cries of protectionism resound suggest linking labor standards to trade and it s protectionism in disguise limit capital flows and the international monetary fund is on your back but restrict people flows that s just an accepted exercise of national sovereignty during the last few decades when most countries reduced barriers to trade in goods and services and liberalized financial capital markets most also sought to limit immigration in this essay i examine what we know about the causes and consequences of immigration i argue that people flows are fundamental to creating a global economy and that the interplay among immigration capital and trade is essential to understanding the way globalization affects economies i consider ways to reduce barriers to immigration that could improve the well being of workers around the world

forward foreign exchange rates expected spot rates and premia a signal extraction approach in this paper we implement a methodology to identify and measure premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange that involves application of signal extraction techniques from the engineering literature diagnostic tests indicate that these methods are quite successful in capturing the essence of the time series properties of premium terms the estimated premium models indicate that premia show a certain degree of persistence over time and that more than half the variance in the forecast error that results from the use of current forward rates as predictors of future spot rates is accounted for by variation in premium terms the methodology can be applied straightforwardly to the measurement of unobservables in other financial markets there exists a growing body of empirical research on premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange conditional on the hypothesis that the foreign exchange market is efficient or rational the existence of time varying premia has been documented in the literature by fama 6 hansen and hodrick 10 11 hodrick and srivastava 15 16 hsieh 171 and korajczyk 20 frankel 9 fails to identify such premia and domowitz and hakkio 51 obtain different results for different currencies

determinants of labour s income share in the era of financialisation numerous studies have analysed the decline in the labour share of income but only few have linked it to the increase in financialisation the process of financialisation can roughly be described as an increasing importance of the financial sector that had an impact on the distribution between wages and profits on the one hand and retained earnings and financial income in the form of dividends and interests on the other hand this article seeks to explore the relationship between financialisation and labour s share of income using a time series cross sectional dataset of 13 countries over the time period from 1986 until 2007 the results suggest that there is indeed a relationship between increasing dividend and interest payments of non financial corporations and the decline of the share of wages in national income other factors that can account for the decline relate to globalisation and a decrease in the bargaining power of labour

taking time seriously dramatic world change has stimulated interest in research questions about the dynamics of politics we have seen increases in the number of time series data sets and the length of typical time series but three shortcomings are prevalent in published time series analysis first analysts often estimate models without testing restrictions implied by their specification second researchers link the theoretical concept of equilibrium with cointegration and error correction models third analysts often do a poor job of interpreting results the consequences include weak connections between theory and tests biased estimates and incorrect inferences we outline techniques for estimating linear dynamic regressions with stationary data and weakly exogenous regressors we recommend analysts 1 start with general dynamic models and test restrictions before adopting a particular specification and 2 use the wide array of information available from dynamic specifications we illustrate this strategy with data on congressional approval and tax rates across oecd countries

an international capm for bonds and equities abstract previous empirical studies of international capm models have not found much supporting evidence in this paper we suggest reasons why this might have happened and perform new tests using improved models and data a range of monthly capm models are estimated for 1973 1987 for aggretate equities and bonds in germany japan the us and uk the models are an improvement on earlier work in that we integrate equity markets into the analysis instead of focusing exclusively on government bond stocks and we carefully measure the rates of return for both bonds and equities in particular bond returns reflect changes in the price of bonds as well as coupons despite this wider portfolio and the introduction of arch effects in the conditional covariance matrix of errors our model still yields unlikely estimates of the coefficient of relative risk aversion and provides very little explanatory power for expected relative rates of return correcting the icapm for these major deficiencies does not reverse earlier conclusions in the literature a close examination of the residuals of the estimated equations suggest that garch models are not required for our new data set jel fh

wage setting institutions and pay inequality in advanced industrial societies the distribution of pay differs significantly across countries and over time among advanced industrial societies in this paper institutional and political determinants of pay inequality are studied in sixteen countries from 1980 to 1992 the most important factor in explaining pay dispersion is the level of wage setting i e whether wages are set at the level of the individual the plant the industry or the entire private sector the impact of centralization is the same whether centralization occurs via collective bargaining or via government involvement in private sector wage setting the concentration of unions and the share of the labor force covered by collective bargaining agreements also matter after controlling for wage setting institutions other variables such as the governing coalition the size of government international openness and the supply of highly educated workers have little impact economic political and norm based explanations for the association of centralization with egalitarian outcomes are discussed

the drivers of income inequality in rich countries rising income inequality has recently come centre stage as a core societal concern for rich countries the diagnosis of the forces driving inequality upwards and their relative importance remains hotly contested notably with respect to the roles of globalization versus technology and of market forces versus institutions and policy choices this survey provides a critical review and synthesis of recent research the focus is on income inequality across the entire distribution rather than only on what has been happening at the very top we pay particular attention to including what has been learned from the analysis of micro data to ensuring that the coverage is not unduly us centric and to analyses of the interrelations between the different drivers of inequality the marked differences in inequality trends across countries and time periods reflect how global economic forces such as globalisation and technological change have interacted with differing national contexts and institutions major analytical challenges stand in the way of a consensus emerging on the relative importance of different drivers in how income inequality has evolved in recent decades

testing the uncovered interest parity using traded volatility a time varying risk premium and heterogeneous expectations abstract this paper carries out an empirical investigation of an extended version of flood and marion s 2000 self fulfilling risk predictions an application to speculative attacks journal of international economics 50 245 268 uip model which incorporates a nonlinear time varying risk premium that depends on both the expected variance of the future exchange rate and the relative worldwide private holdings of domestic and foreign government bonds a novel contribution of our paper is the use of traded currency volatility which is directly observable in the market place to measure expectations about the future volatility of the exchange rate another contribution is the explicit modelling of heterogeneous exchange rate expectations formed by forward looking fundamentalists and backward looking chartists our overall empirical evidence provides strong support for the extended nonlinear uip model we also investigate for the first time the role of traded volatility in the dynamic behaviour of exchange rates and find that high currency volatility is likely to produce oscillatory and unstable exchange rate paths

what s behind the rise in profitability in the us in the 1980s and 1990s profitability in the us has been rising since the early 1980s and by 1997 was at its highest level since its post world war ii peak in the mid 1960s and the profit share by one definition at its highest point in this paper i examine the role of the change in the profit share and capital intensity as well as structural change on movements in the rate of profit between 1947 and 1997 its recent recovery is traced to a rise in the profit share in national income a slowdown in capital labour growth at the industry level and employment shifts to relatively labour intensive industries copyright 2003 oxford university press

aggregate capital productivity in the us economy 1964 2001 in the decomposition of the us macroeconomic pre tax rate of profit as the product of profit share and capital productivity this paper considers the role of capital productivity over the period 1964 2001 the primary finding is that prior to 1982 capital productivity fell because capital deepening proceeded faster than labour productivity growth whereas from 1982 to 1997 the opposite occured if prior to 1982 the us economy was characterised by marx biased technical progress what requires explanation is why labour productivity continued to grow after 1982 in the absence of sufficient capital deepening the paper explores various hypotheses contrasts neoclassical and classical notions of technical change and investigates the robustness of its results to the productive unproductive distinction and to accounting for changes in capacity utilisation

the structure of class conflict in democratic capitalist societies the article presents a theory of class conflict between workers and capitalists who pursue their material interests under a form of societal organization that combines private ownership of instruments of production with representative political institutions there exist economic and political conditions under which both classes would simultaneously choose courses of action that constitute a class compromise workers consent to the institution of profit and capitalists to democratic institutions through which workers can effectively press claims for material gains when these conditions hold and a compromise is in force the role of the state consists in institutionalizing coordinating and enforcing the terms of a compromise that represents the preferences of workers as well as capitalists the combination of private ownership of the instruments of production with representative political institutions based on widespread suffrage constitutes a compromise between workers who consent to the private appropriation of profit by owners of capital and capitalists who accept the democratic institutions through which workers can make effective claims for an improvement of their material conditions this form of societal organization was con

tests of the capm with time varying covariances a multivariate garch approach this paper examines an asset pricing model in which the sharpe lintner capm and the zero beta capm are special cases the model allows the ratio of expected market risk premium to market variance the conditional expected excess returns and the risks to change over time the results are found to be sensitive to the choice of the portfolio formation techniques significant time variability is shown in the conditional expected excess asset returns and risks and also in the reward to risk ratio

income inequality democracy and public sector size this study synthesizes and tests explanations of how public sector size and democracy affect income inequality the results based on unbalanced panel data for 64 developing and developed countries

macroeconomic structure and labor s share of income united states 1950 to 1980 we test several hypotheses derived fr om marxist crisis theories regarding the impact of macroeconomic performance on the distribution of income between labor and capital in the united states during the period 1950 to 1980 using annual data on compensation profits and employment we estimate the short term effects of cyclical variations in unemployment inflation growth and capacity utilization on labor s income share with an additive decomposition of labor s income share we then estimate the extent to which the observed effects can be attributed to changes in compensation output and employment we find little support for the hypothesis that tight labor markets increase labor s income share by increasing the bargaining position of labor the hypothesis that labor compensation lags behind profits over the business cycle is supported our results therefore favor the realization failure rather than the reserve army theory of cyclical crisis

factor shares the principal problem of political economy this paper identifies three reasons for studying factor shares to make a link between incomes at the macroeconomic level national accounts and incomes at the level of the household to help understand inequality in the personal distribution of income and to address the concern of social justice with the fairness of different sources of income in each case i explore the implications and point to ways in which the analysis could be taken forward in a twenty first century treatment of the classical problem of political economy

factor proportions and relative wages the supply side determinants of wage inequality supply side factors may contribute to rising wage inequality first certain changes in the supply of skills allegedly exacerbate wage inequality women s increased labor force participation and increased immigration are the leading candidates both allegedly reduce the wages of less skilled men however immigration s impact on wage inequality has been minor and the effects of women s participation is inconclusive second in evaluating the likelihood that human capital investment will mitigate future inequality evidence suggests that rising returns to education have increased the proportion of young people attending college limiting the growth of inequality among high wage workers

determinants of relative poverty in advanced capitalist democracies using relative poverty measures based on micro level data from the luxembourg income study in conjunction with pooled time series data for 14 advanced capitalist democracies between 1970 and 1997 the authors analyze separately the rate of pretax transfer poverty and the reduction in poverty achieved by systems of taxes and transfers socioeconomic factors including de industrialization and unemployment largely explain pre tax transfer poverty rates of the working age population in these advanced capitalist democracies the extent of redistribution measured as poverty reduction via taxes and transfers is explained directly by welfare state generosity and constitutional structure number of veto points and the strength of the political left both in unions and in government

potential gains from international portfolio diversification and inter temporal stability and seasonality in international stock market relationships abstract in this paper we find empirical evidence that diversification across countries results in greater risk reduction than diversification across industries our inter temporal stability tests indicate that the longer the time period considered the better proxies ex post patterns of co movement can be for the ex ante co movements of international stock markets our seasonality tests show that international stock market co movements are stable in the september may period but relatively unstable in the may september period

good times bad times postwar labor s share of national income in capitalist democracies this article returns to a classic question of political economy the zero sum conflict between capital and labor over the division of the national income pie a detailed description of labor s shar

unproductive accumulation in the usa a new analytical framework in this paper i offer an innovative analysis of unproductive accumulation in the united states economy from 1947 to 2011 i develop a new theoretical and empirical framework to analyze the accumulation of capital in its productive and unproductive forms i also develop a methodology to compute marxist categories predicated on the idea that the production of knowledge and information is an unproductive activity that relies on the creation of knowledge rents in particular i provide new empirical estimates to uncover the shifting balance between productive and unproductive forms of accumulation the accumulation pattern observed during the 1947 1979 phase that prioritized productive accumulation gave way after the 1980s to a contrasting pattern prioritizing unproductive accumulation unproductive activity has been growing at a fast pace in terms of incomes fixed assets and employment among all forms of unproductive activity my approach places special attention on how the production of knowledge and information has constituted a rising share of total unproductive income and capital stock additionally productive stagnation and rapid unproductive accumulation have been related to greater exploitation of productive workers and to widening income inequality