population increase economic growth educational inequality and income distribution some recent evidence abstract using a recent inter country sample impacts of population increase short run growth rate and educational level and inequality on income distribution are assessed as in almost all other studies high population increase is observed to be a disequalizer however unlike the position indicated in several earlier studies rapid short run economic growth seems to reduce income inequality while higher mean schooling level appears to be a mild equalizer contrary to the results reported by earlier researchers no adverse effect of educational inequality on income distribution is found

a decomposition analysis of the trend in uk income inequality post war britain has experienced a number of dramatic demographic and social changes that have undoubtedly influenced the distribution of income there has been a rise in the number of pensioners whose incomes are relatively low a considerable increase in the number of young and old households living on their own and a remarkable expansion in the proportion of working wives the potential importance of these structural changes suggests that their impact on the income distribution needs to be examined systematically before any attempt can be made to interpret the observed trend in overall income inequality adequately the method usually adopted for this purpose attempts to create a comparable time series of distributions based on the structural characteristics pertaining in one particular year for example if we wished to investigate the effect of shifts in the age structure of the population this approach would disaggregate the distribution in one year tl and estimate what the distribution would have been like if the age structure had been the same as that observed in some other year to on the assumption that other distributional characteristics such as ageincome differentials and inequality within age groups remain invariant to this demographic change the comparison between the actual distribution at t1 and the constructed distribution at t1 with to s age structure is taken to indicate the impact of changes in the age structure over the period concerned this comparison can be presented in terms of quantile shares summary measures of inequality or the entire lorenz curves this approach known as shift share analysis or standardising the inequality series see semple i975 love and wolfson i976 dinwiddy and reed i977 royal commission i977 rowley and henderson i978 macleod and horner i980 is perfectly adequate for simple and straightforward structural changes when several changes are occurring simultaneously however it becomes difficult to identify the contribution of the individual factors and to assess their relative importance to the overall trend in inequality furthermore the combined impact of several structural influences will not in general sum up to the inequality change requiring explanation the purpose of this paper is to propose an alternative method of analysing

gender and the demand for medical care the consumption of a set of diverse medical services is analysed in an effort to determine the sources of high utilization by women unlike previous studies of gender and the demand for medical services the range of services investigate allows us to draw conclusions about the influence of physicians as agents we use a modified version of the almost ideal demand model in the emperical analysis which unlike the double log quadratic or linear demand models is consistent with constraints imposed by economic theory through decomposition of the variance it was found that if women reported the same series of health indicators as men their use of most services would fall below that of men

punitive sanctions and the transition rate from welfare to work in the netherlands the average exit rate out of welfare is dramatically low most welfare recipients have to comply with guidelines on job search effort that are imposed by the welfare agency if they do not then a sanction in the form of a temporary benefit reduction can be imposed this article investigates the effect of such sanctions on the transition rate from welfare to work using a unique set of rich register data on welfare recipients we find that the imposition of sanctions substantially increases the individual transition rate from welfare to work

ageing the great challenge to health care reform abstract this contribution is an attempt to analyze an issue that seems to be frequently skirted over when discussing reforms of today s health care systems practitioners of health insurance point out the fact that a major share of medical care services goes to the uppermost age brackets who are believed to be unresponsive to the financial incentives such as cost sharing and bonuses for no claims that are being considered as innovations in the financing of health care at the same time rapid growth in the numbers of the old and very old is predicted for virtually all oecd countries acting in combination these two factors appear to undercut the rationale of conventional cost containment strategies in health care a closer look at the matter even reveals that a major part of lifetime health resources are spent during the last few months of human life economists are therefore challenged to explain a puzzle why is it that such a great deal of resources is dedicated to investments that will in all likelihood be characterized by a very short payoff period in an attempt at answering this question the decision situations facing the dying patient and his family treating physicians and politicians acting as agents of the population at large will be examined in turn of course no easy way out can be expected to result from this exercise nevertheless economic analysis can be counted upon to provide at least cues concerning the incentives that have to be built into future insurance contracts physician payment schemes and modes of hospital finance for dealing with the challenge to the health care system posed by a rapidly ageing population

nonlinearity in medical expenditures a new semiparametric approach research in empirical health economics has found that the relationship between medical expenditures and age income and other variables can be highly nonlinear moreover men and women can have quite different medical expenditure patterns due to their differences in life expectancy thus it may be difficult to find an appropriate parametric model to capture the highly complicated nonlinearity in medical expenditures and introducing a simple gender dummy variable in a parametric model may not reveal all the medical expenditure differences between men and women this study takes a semiparametric approach in particular an additive partially linear specification is employed to study the relationship between medical expenditures and age income gender and other individual characteristics using data from the national medical expenditure survey the results indicate that the semiparametric approach taken in this study is very promising they confirm that medical expenditures are nonlinear in income and age

the effect of unemployment insurance sanctions on the transition rate from unemployment to employment sanctions or punitive benefits reductions are increasingly used as a tool to enforce compliance of unemployment insurance claimants with search requirements this article analyses sanctions using a unique administrative data set of individuals who started collecting unemployment insurance in the netherlands in 1992 after correction for selectivity in the imposition of sanctions we find that sanctions substantially raise individual re employment rates

equilibrium in competitive insurance markets with ex ante adverse selection and ex post moral hazard abstract existence of pure strategy equilibria is studied in health insurance markets that exhibit both ex ante adverse selection of the rothschild stiglitz wilson type and ex post hidden information moral hazard it is found that ex post moral hazard has two offsetting effects on the existence of equilibrium and that in general it is difficult to say whether an equilibrium is more or less likely to exist numerical simulations and an analytical example confirm that moral hazard may increase the likelihood of equilibrium these results are interpreted as evidence that health maintenance organization hmo markets could be less likely to exhibit stable equilibria than are fee for service insurance markets

the dynamics of trade unionism and national economic performance i test two theories of the political processes of trade unions the first argues that wage moderation depends on a centralized labor movement the second contends that institutional conditions permitting unions coordination of bargaining strategies is sufficient coordination is most likely to he achieved when there are small number of unions that do not compete for members that is when union monopoly is high important empirical anomalies may be resolved by analyzing the effects of union centralization and monopoly separately rather than combining them into a composite index of corporatism reanalyzing comparative data from organization of economic cooperation and development countries between 1963 and 1985 largely corroborates the hypothesis that monopoly is more important than either centralization or composite indices of corporatism for national economic performance the conceptual rationale underlying indices of corporatism should be reexamined

dependency revisited international markets business cycles and social spending in the developing world while increased exposure to the global economy is associated with increased welfare effort in the organization for economic cooperation and development oecd the opposite holds in the developing world these differences are typically explained with reference to domestic politics tradables unions and the like in the developing world are assumed to have less power or interests divergent to those in the oecd interests that militate against social spending i claim that such arguments can be complemented with a recognition that developed and developing nations have distinct patterns of integration into global markets while income shocks associated with international markets are quite modest in the oecd they are profound in developing nations in the oecd governments can respond to those shocks by borrowing on capital markets and spending countercyclically on social programs no such opportunity exists for most governments in the developing world most of which have limited access to capital markets in tough times more significant incentives to balance budgets and as a result cut social spending at the times it is most needed thus while internationally inspired volatility and income shocks seem not to threaten the underpinnings of the welfare state in rich nations it undercuts the capacity of governments in the developing world to smooth consumption and particularly consumption by the poor across the business cycle the author would like to thank steph haggard kristin bakke wongi choe tim jones and seminar participants at duke university penn state university washington university mit and the university of new mexico for their helpful comments nancy brune mark hallerberg and rolf strauch and nita rudra were very generous in providing their capital account oecd fiscal and potential labor power data respectively

hospital profits the effects of reimbursement policies this paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effect of cost based reimbursement cbr on hospital costs and charges it takes issue with previous analyses which have treated cbr as paying economic costs plus a mark up and have concluded that the mark up is too small to significantly distort hospital decision making the basic thesis here is that if reimbursement is based on costs accounting costs become a price to cost paying patients and will be optimized to maximize revenue a hospital serving both cost and charge paying private patients can set two price schedules accounting profits ratio of charges to costs are not a measure of economic profit but of relative prices to these two groups of patients in the absence of constraints from regulation or patient co payment the optimum level of accounting costs would be infinite in practice the medicare reimbursement formula links allowable costs to charges received from charge paying patients this formula creates incentives for the hospital to raise charges above the single price profit maximizing monopoly level this inflationary effect of the medicare formula does not presuppose that medicare pays less than full cost the empirical analysis of hospital laboratory costs and charges generally supports the predictions for other departments the conclusions are consistent but more tentative because of data limitations overall evidence suggests minimal cross subsidy between cost and charge paying patients comparisons of cost and charge levels in for profit voluntary non profit and government hospitals are presented but it is emphasized that inferences about relative efficiency and profitability cannot be drawn from accounting data given the incentives created by cbr

price elasticity and adverse selection in the demand for supplementary health insurance probit regression estimates show the effects of the price of insurance anticipated medical expenditures and other factors on reported decisions about purchasing hypothetically offered supplementary insurance policies the demand estimates can characterize how much supplemental insurance would be purchased under different tax policies affecting health insurance purchases although eliminating the current tax subsidy to insurance is shown to decrease demand the results indicate a substantial demand for supplementary insurance even in the absence of present tax incentives however our results on adverse selection raise concerns about the potential stability of supplemental insurance markets

health insurance and the demand for medical care instrumental variable estimates using health insurer claims data this paper takes a different approach to estimating demand for medical care that uses the negotiated prices between insurers and providers as an instrument the instrument is viewed as a textbook cost shifting instrument that impacts plan offerings but is unobserved by consumers the paper finds a price elasticity of demand of around 0 20 matching the elasticity found in the rand health insurance experiment the paper also studies within market variation in demand for prescription drugs and other medical care services and obtains comparable price elasticity estimates

bringing capital back in or social democracy reconsidered employer power cross class alliances and centralization of industrial relations in denmark and sweden the political domination of social democrats in denmark and sweden beginning in the 1930s was stabilized by the absence of intense opposition by capital to reformist programs aggressively opposed by business and the right elsewhere in the world this quiescence was not a symptom of weakness or dependency rather it was a product of a class intersecting cross class alliance behind institutions of centralized industrial relations that served mutual interests of sectoral groupings dominating both union and employer confederations well organized and militant and backed by social democrats employers in the two countries used offensive multi industry lockouts to force centralization on reluctant unions analysis of these cross class alliances and their pay distributional objectives is used to challenge a widely held view that centralization and social democratic electoral strength are sources of power against capital it also occasions a reassessment of conventional understandings of farmer labor coalitions and the decline of industrial conflict in scandinavia in the 1930s according to the alternative view presented here capital was included rather than excluded from these cross class alliances and industrial conflict subsided dramatically in part because employers achieved politically what they had previously tried to achieve with the lockout

the economics of medicare equilibrium within the medical community this paper partially fills a theoretical void by developing an integrated model of the various branches of the medical community a consistent and general framework is adopted to analyze equilibrium within the market for medical services under a stylized form of socialized medicine without invoking demand shifting the optimization problem faced by each agent is specified and the equilibrium is defined the effect of various parameter changes on the market for medical services is analyzed the predictions are not contradicted by the stylized facts

economists and the welfare state abstract this paper constrasts the views of the welfare state of economists in the 1940s and 1950s with those of the current generation it is argued that economists as a profession in particular in the scandinavian countries have changed from being strong spokesmen for the welfare state to becoming much more critical the reasons for this are sought both in the expansion of the public sector in recent decades and in the development of economic theory in the areas of public finance insurance and incentives and public choice an attempt is made to evaluate the importance of the empirical and theoretical developments for the changing views of the welfare state

how big is the crowding out effect of user fees in the rural areas of ethiopia implications for equity and resources mobilization summary using a nested multinomial logit model this study investigates the demand reduction and diversion effects of user fees in rural areas of ethiopia the results reveal that an increase in user fees of public clinics which are the most widely used alternative can have a significant demand reduction effect on the poorest of the poor this implies that despite cost recovery has been advocated as an alternative means of health care financing in most of the developing world increasing user fees may drive the poorest segment of the population out of the health care market unless some protective measures are taken

an econometric model of the two part decision process in the demand for health the decision to contact a physician and the decision about how often to contact a physician are determined by different decisionmakers we introduce a negative binomial distributed hurdle model that specifies the two stages of the decisionmaking process as different stochastic processes while at the same time taking care of the discrete nature of the data empirical results are based on a cross section of the west german socioeconomic panel specification tests reveal that the two stages of the process need to be treated as two distinct processes this in turn implies that ignoring this distinction leads to serious misinterpretation

taxation pension and saving in a small open economy an overlapping generations model of a small open economy is used to explore several policy options aimed at reducing the burden of income taxes and pay as you go payg contributions on labor income so as to improve the incentives to supply labor including the return of funded collective fc pension plans in the tax base turns out to be counterproductive cutting payg benefits in contrast succeeds in improving efficiency in general and labor market incentives in particular under specific variants of the fc plan reducing payg benefits even proves to be pareto welfare improving

reduction in the long term unemployment of the elderly a success story from finland in finland the elderly unemployed are allowed to collect unemployment benefits up to the age of 60 when they can retire via a particular unemployment pension in 1997 the eligibility age of persons benefiting from this scheme was raised from 53 to 55 we consider changes in the risk of unemployment unemployment durations and the exit states before and after the reform in the duration analysis a flexible treatment design is adopted by allowing for quantile treatment effects we apply three different non and semiparametric methods which all produce robust and coherent results since the reform the group aged 53 54 has had a lower risk of unemployment shorter unemployment durations and higher exit rates to employment and it is no longer distinguishable from the group aged 50 52 we estimate the amount of unemployment benefits saved due to the reform

public pensions choices for the future abstract the purpose of this paper is to analyze to what extent pay as you go government mandated pensions can provide adequate retirement income to future generations this question is particularly relevant at times when the financial viability of public pensions is threatened by demographic aging and possibly declining productivity and when more importantly there is little consensus as to why those programs exist as they are that is mandatory public and unfunded the gist of our argument is that an aging population particularly if combined with declining productivity would jeopardize the financial and political viability of public pensions if individuals behavior doesn t adjust to this new reality and public authorities don t adopt the appropriate reforms as to mandatory retirement age payroll taxes and benefits structure among key individual decisions we focus on saving labor participation retirement education migration and fertility we consider how sensitive each of these is to changes in the environment and to changes in policy parameters then we turn to a number of issues unsolved either because of analytical complexity or because they arise from new realities

the effect of changes in the population on several measures of income distribution an economic model is used to explore the relationship between population growth and 2 of the most commonly used income distribution statistics the share of the rich and the poor in total income and the rate of growth of real income of the rich and the poor brazilian statistics applied to the model illustrate the difficulty of interpreting the common inequality measures under conditions of rapid population growth neither income shares nor growth rates can tell much about the degree of progressivity in the growth strategy of a particular country without adjustment absolute income for the base period poor or base period teenagers was greater than reported for either the poor or teenagers however the rise in inequality was also greater for the base period population growth in brazil was seen to be even more regressive than previously thought significant upward mobility was however still possible

estimating price elasticities of convalescent care programmes this study is the first to estimate price elasticities of demand for convalescent care programmes in 1997 the german legislature more than doubled the daily co payments for the publicly insured from 6t o 13 the measure caused the overall demand for convalescent care treatments to fall by 20 to 25 i estimate the price elasticity for medical rehabilitation programmes aimed at preventing work disability to be about 0 3 whereas the elasticity for medical rehabilitation programmes for recovery from accidents at work lies around 0 5 the demand for preventive treatment at health spas is elastic and less than 1 how does the demand for medical care change when prices change since the early days of the profession of health economics the question of the price elasticity for health services has been central joseph p newhouse one of the founders of the field of health economics has published more than 100 articles alone on health care demand newhouse was also the leader of the rand group that designed and directed the famous rand health insurance experiment that focused on the impact of costsharing on the demand for medical care not only newhouse but also many other economists have devoted a great deal of attention to this topic

government partisanship labor organization and macroeconomic performance governments of the left and right have distinct partisan economic policies and objectives that they would prefer to pursue their propensity to do so however is constrained by their desire for reelection we argue that the ability of governments to further their partisan interests and preside over reelectable macroeconomic outcomes simultaneously is dependent on the organization of the domestic economy particularly the labor movement we hypothesize that there are two different paths to desirable macroeconomic performance in countries with densely and centrally organized labor movements leftist governments can promote economic growth and reduce inflation and unemployment conversely in countries with weak labor movements rightist governments can pursue their partisan preferred macroeconomic strategies and achieve similarly beneficial macroeconomic outcomes performance will be poorer in other cases these hypotheses are supported by analysis of pooled annual time series data for 16 advanced industrial democracies between 1967 and 1984

capital and labor saving technical change in an aging economy does population aging and the associated increase in the old age dependency ratio affect economic growth the answer is given in a novel analytical framework that allows for population aging to affect endogenous capital and labor saving technical change the short run analysis reveals that population aging induces more labor and less capital saving technical change as it increases the relative scarcity of labor with respect to capital due to external contemporaneous knowledge spill overs across innovating firms induced technical change has a first order effect on current aggregate income in the long run capitalsaving technical progress vanishes and the economy s growth rate reflects only labor saving technical change however the mere possibility of capital saving technical change is shown to imply that the economy s steady state growth rate becomes independent of its age structure neither a higher life expectancy nor a decline in fertility affects economic growth in the long run

the effect of benefit sanctions on the duration of unemployment this paper investigates the effectiveness of unemployment benefit sanctions in reducing unemployment duration swiss data on benefit sanctions allow us to separate the effect of a warning that a person is not complying with eligibility requirements from the effect of the actual enforcement of a benefit sanction moreover public employment services are given substantial leeway in setting the monitoring intensity results indicate that both warning and enforcement have a positive effect on the exit rate out of unemployment and that increasing the monitoring intensity reduces the duration of unemployment of the nonsanctioned jel j64 j65 j68

job duration seniority and earnings an important stylized fact about labor markets is that workers with longer seniority with their current employer have higher earnings than other workers with the same total labor market experience this study shows that workers in longer jobs earn more throughout than workers in a series of shorter jobs and that the measured positive cross sectional return seniority is largely a statistical artifact due to the correlation of seniority with an omitted variable representing the quality of the worker the job or the worker employer match the implication is tha t earnings do not in fact rise very much with seniority copyright 1987 by american economic association

health insurance and the demand for medical care evidence from a randomized experiment we estimate how cost sharing the portion of the bill the patient pays affects the demand for medical services the data come from a randomized experiment a catastrophic insurance plan reduces expenditures 31 percent relative to zero out of pocket price the price elasticity is approximately 0 2 we reject the hypothesis that less favorable coverage of outpatient services increases total expenditure for example by deterring preventive care or inducing hospitalization

the welfare effects of restricted hospital choice in the us medical care market summary managed care health insurers in the usa restrict their enrollees choice of hospitals to within specific networks this paper considers the implications of these restrictions a three step econometric model is used to predict consumer preferences over health plans conditional on the hospitals they offer the results indicate that consumers place a positive and significant weight on their expected utility from the hospital network when choosing plans a welfare analysis assuming fixed prices implies that restricting consumers choice of hospitals leads to a loss to society of approximately 1 billion per year across the 43 us markets considered this figure may be outweighed by the price reductions generated by the restriction copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

adverse selection moral hazard and wealth effects in the medigap insurance market using data from a longitudinal study of the recently retired we attempt to separate the moral hazard effect of medicare supplementary medigap insurance on health care expenditures from the adverse selection effect of poor health on medigap coverage we find evidence of adverse selection but its magnitude is unlikely to create serious efficiency problems taking adverse selection into account reduces the estimate of the moral hazard effect in addition we find a strong positive wealth effect on the demand for supplementary insurance

economic crisis and policy choice the politics of adjustment in the third world the acute economic pressures of the 1980s have forced virtually all of latin america and africa and some countries in asia into painful austerity programs and difficult economic reforms scholars have intensively analyzed the economics of this situation but they have given much less attention to the political forces involved in this volume a number of eminent contributors analyze the politics of adjustment in thirteen countries and nineteen governments drawing comparisons not only across the full set of cases but also within clusters selected to clarify specific issues why do some governments respond promptly to signs of economic trouble while others muddle indecisively for years why do some confine their response to temporary macroeconomic measures while others adopt broader even sweeping programs of reform what leads some countries to experiment with heterodox approaches while most however reluctantly pursue orthodox courses why confronted with intense political protest have some governments persisted while others have altered or abandoned course the answers to these questions are political not economic and they are examined here by thomas m callaghy stephan haggard miles kahler robert r kauman joan m nelson and barbara stallings

the effect of time price on the demand for medical care services this paper analyzes the effect of time price on medical care demand and describes use of a reservation wage question from a household survey to develop a measure of time price for obtaining medical care a comprehensive three equation model of the demand for female medical care services examines choice of provider entry demand and the demand for physician visits results show that provider choice is based primarily on economic factors and that an expected high time price discourages women from choosing a public provider and from seeking gynecological maternal health or family planning services during the year yet does not influence the number of visits made once care is used the estimated model shows that medical care demand equations should control for the type of provider chosen and the opportunity cost of time for alternative activities when testing for a negative time price effect of obtaining medical care

optimal non linear health insurance abstract most theoretical and empirical work on efficient health insurance has been based on models with linear insurance schedules a constant co insurance parameter in this paper dynamic optimization techniques are used to analyse the properties of optimal non linear insurance schedules in a model similar to one originally considered by spence and zeckhauser american economic review 1971 61 380 387 and reminiscent of those that have been used in the literature on optimal income taxation the results of a preliminary numerical example suggest that the welfare losses from the implicit subsidy to employer financed health insurance under us tax law may be a good deal smaller than previously estimated using linear models

efficiency in employment based health insurance the potential for supra marginal cost pricing currently the majority if privately insured individuals in the u s are insured through their employers this has significant implications for competition and the ability qf a competitive insurance industry to assure marginal cost pricing the central barrier to competition arises when employers restrict their employees ability to select among insurance carriers several models 4 insurer proft maximization are explored which demonstrate that supra marginal cost pricing is likely to persist euen when the insurance market appears cornpetitiue

labor market effects of employer provided health insurance i introduction increasing health insurance coverage is arguably an important policy goal the congressional budget office 2003 estimates that in 1998 20 30 million americans had no health insurance for the entire year approximately 40 million were uninsured at a specific point in time in the year and nearly 60 million were without coverage some time during the year most individuals who have health insurance in the united states obtain it through their employer in 1999 65 8 of nonelderly americans had employer provided insurance also called group insurance or employer sponsored insurance either through their own employer or through the employer of another household member see gruber 2001 employer provided insurance plans generally have lower premiums and offer more benefits than individual insurance plans health insurance providers can offer cheaper and better plans to company employees for at least two reasons first the average administrative cost of such plans is lower than individual plans second employment based plans are typically subject to less adverse selection than individual plans particularly so for large employers furthermore the tax subsidy afforded employment based health insurance renders the effective consumer price substantially lower than the cost see pauly 1986 and gruber 2001 together these various factors give a strong incentive for employers to offer and employees to accept coverage as part of their employment contract as employer provided insurance is by far the most prevalent form of coverage in the private sector policy makers look for further expansion of this base as a way to insure the uninsured while avoiding direct public financing as a way to increase employer based health insurance coverage some states either have or are considering government mandates that require employers to provide insurance to certain types of workers 1 the state of hawaii requires private sector employers to offer health insurance to all workers who work for more than 20 h a week and requires these workers to have insurance the state of california is currently considering a similar mandate there is a considerable interest from policy makers on the effects of such mandates on labor market outcomes in this study we report on an experiment that was designed to provide some insights about possible effects of alternative health insurance regulations on the competitive labor market with a particular focus on mandates since we only considered a competitive market setting with complete contracts and no wage rigidities our results may not be directly applicable to all labor market situations 2 however the study provides useful insights about the interaction of health insurance benefit provision wages and employment structure for labor markets where the competitive wage setting and the complete contracts assumptions are reasonable with these limitations in mind our results can be also generalized to other types of employer provided fringe benefits such as paid vacations or pension plans as any government intervention health insurance regulation may affect the labor market theory predicts that in perfectly competitive labor markets health insurance creates no distortionary effects on the labor market equilibrium as long as the coverage is not mandated and there are no wage rigidities 3 all workers who value insurance above its cost of provision are offered insurance and accept it the wages are adjusted downward see rosen 1986 and gruber 2000 summers 1989 used a simple supply and demand analysis to show that the effect of increases in premiums on equilibrium labor hours and wage depends both on the elasticity of labor demand and labor supply and on how fully workers value changes in the cost of health insurance if the demand or the supply of labor is completely inelastic or if workers fully value the insurance then an increase in the premium would result in an equal decrease shift in wages

union density and political strikes why do trade unions organize antigovernment strikes in some countries but not in others this article argues that there is a curvilinear relationship between union density and political strike activity political strikes are rare in countries with low union density since effective protests require a basic level of organizational capacity they are also rare in countries with high union density since a government that faces a strong union movement has powerful incentives to adjust its policies in order to avoid open confrontation but political strikes are relatively common in countries with moderate levels of union density since it is difficult for governments and unions to find viable compromises when the strength of the unions is not secure the empirical part of the article estimates the relationship between union density and the likelihood of political strikes in two samples of advanced democracies

invested interests the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance capital moves more rapidly across national borders now than it has in at least fifty years and perhaps in history this article examines the effects of capital mobility on different groups in national societies and on the politics of economic policymaking it begins by emphasizing that while financial markets are highly integrated within the developed world many investments are still quite specific with respect to firm sector or location it then argues that contemporary levels of international capital mobility have a differential impact on socioeconomic groups over the long run increased capital mobility tends to favor owners of capital over other groups in the shorter run owners and workers in specific sectors in capital exporting countries bear much of the burden of adjusting to increased capital mobility these patterns can be expected to lead to political divisions about whether or not to encourage or increase international capital market integration the article then demonstrates that capital mobility also affects the politics of other economic policies most centrally it shifts debate toward the exchange rate as an intermediate or ultimate policy instrument in this context it tends to pit groups that favor exchange rate stability against groups that are more concerned about national monetary policy autonomy and therefore less concerned about exchange rate stability similarly it tends to drive a wedge between groups that favor an appreciated exchange rate and groups that favor a depreciated one these divisions have important implications for such economic policies as european monetary and currency union the dollar yen exchange rate and international macroeconomic policy coordination

the threat effect of active labour market programmes in this paper we estimate the threat effect of active labour market programmes almps for a sample of unemployed men in denmark threat effects of such programmes capture the impacts of a system of almps prior to actual participation rational economic agents make search decisions based on the expected discounted value of unemployment and the perceived risk of future participation in programmes may affect job search behaviour early in the unemployment spell we find a strong and significant threat effect which is shown to reduce average unemployment duration by two and a half weeks

savings of the elderly and desired bequests cross section data often show that the wealth of the elderly increases with age even at advanced ages these and other results suggest that the life cycle hypothesis of consumption should be augmented to include a bequest motive for saving in this paper the author proposes a model of bequests and a test for a bequ est motive using panel data he finds that over a ten year period the elderly in the data set dissaved in contradiction to most cross section results the test offers no support for a bequest motive copyright 1987 by american economic association

income tax deductions for losses as insurance the federal income tax allows deductions for some categories of personal losses notably for casualty losses such as destruction of one s home or car and medical expenses above a threshold the latter even with lower marginal rates and further restrictions brought about by the 1986 tax reform involves more than a 3 billion annual revenue loss office of management and budget 1990 1 deductions like these act as partial insurance individuals receive a tax benefit equal to their marginal rate multiplied by the magnitude of their loss however this form of insurance is unnecessary when private insurance is available moreover as will be emphasized here these deductions have a perverse effect because they are allowed only for the uninsured portion of losses this induces individuals to be less protected against risk in the aggregate than if the implicit insurance provided by the tax system were unavailable if the tax rate is sufficiently high individuals would forgo insurance coverage altogether 2 it will be demonstrated that a tax system with no deductions for personal losses pareto dominates the current system these conclusions are demonstrated in section i using a simple model in which risk averse individuals may purchase actuarially fair insurance against loss and individual behavior does not affect the risk of loss no moral hazard section ii considers the applicability of the results when one allows for moral hazard administrative costs and other imperfections it also discusses the applicability of traditional notions of tax equity

stability in the federal employees health benefits program recently the federal employees health benefits program has been the subject of much discussion in washington as a result of the rather large premium increases in 1982 and 1983 the delayed open season of 1981 and the benefit reductions enrollees responded in may 1982 to the changes a record number switched plans it appears that enrollees were simply responding to the new premiums and benefits in this paper we describe the economic incentives faced by enrollees in the fehbp we find that due to the strong incentives for enrollees to leave certain high cost plans continued instability should be expected in fact the disparity between expected benefits and premium is so great for some plans e g the blue cross high option that their survival is questionable this lack of stability raises important questions about the viability of some pro competition proposals involving multiple insurer systems

the effects of rate regulation on demand for supplemental health insurance many developed countries have a market for private health insurance that supplements publicly funded universal coverage government regulation of the supplemental market including the extent to which insurers are permitted to adjust premiums based on individual characteristics such as age sex and health status varies across countries oecd 2004 proponents of rate regulation argue that the resulting crosssubsidization from low to high risks is necessary to maintain the affordability of coverage for high risks economic theory however raises the concern that the inability to adjust premiums to reflect individual risk could create adverse selection by driving low risks from the market michael rothschild and joseph stiglitz 1976 little empirical evidence exists to determine the optimal role of rate regulation in private supplemental insurance markets existing studies of the consequences of rating restrictions focus on markets for primary health insurance and find that these laws have had surprisingly little effect on overall rates of coverage simon 2004 in this paper we study the effects of rate regulation in supplemental health insurance markets by examining the market for individually purchased coverage that supplements medicare among the elderly in the united states while the publicly financed medicare program provides nearly universal coverage of a standard set of benefits for those 65 and over beneficiaries are exposed to significant financial risk due to the cost sharing associated with covered services and a lack of coverage for some important services the vast majority of medicare beneficiaries obtain supplemental coverage through a complex system of publicly and privately funded sources state medicaid programs provide publicly financed supplemental coverage for low income and disabled beneficiaries and employers provide highly subsidized retiree supplemental health insurance for other beneficiaries but the remainder rely on highly regulated private insurance markets medicare s part c managed care plans are a voluntary private replacement for traditional medicare while medigap coverage is a private policy bought by about 30 percent of medicare beneficiaries that provides only supplemental benefits franklin j eppig and george s chulis 1997 our study examines the effects of regulations limiting the information on individual characteristics insurers can use in setting premiums for medigap coverage

unemployment insurance rules joblessness and part time work developed and under general conditions an increase in the disregard is shown to increase both the part time and overall re employment hazards data from the current population survey s displaced worker supplements are used to test these predictions estimates from a competing risks model with correlated risks and time varying coefficients shows that increasing the disregard significantly increases the conditional probability of part time re employment during the first three months of joblessness

health status and the demand for health results on price elasticities the relationship between measured health status and the elasticity of demand for ambulatory physician services is estimated using data from the national medical care utilization and expenditure survey nmcues although the theoretical relationship between health status and demand elasticity is ambiguous results obtained in this study suggest that declines in health reduce the elasticity of the initial decision to seek care but have no discernible effect on the elasticity of demand at mean levels of consumption these results are consistent with the findings of rand s hie and suggest that consumer price sharing has little effect on initial access to physicians for those in poor health

the dynamics of population growth differential fertility and inequality studies of population growth relative to income distribution from single equation and simultaneous equation models have shown that higher population growth rates increase inequality the reasons for this inequality contain important welfare issues including the fact that different income groups grow at different rates with lower income the fastest the differential fertility of the income groups complicates these issues the lorenz curve has often been used as a foundation of the theory of inequality comparisons and uses cumulative shares of income as a function of cumulative shares of population the mortality rates age of new entrants and the mobility across income groups must be factored in these can be analyzed simultaneously using a multistate life table which describes simultaneous transitions across age groups and states data from brazil was used to test whether increase in the fertility rates of the poor would affect income inequality the results indicate a 100 increase in the fertility of the poor which increases the percentage of poor in the equal fertility case there were decreases in the percent of poor from the original number these results confirm that inequality measures can give conflicting signals and could be inconsistent with real changes in relative welfare analyzing relationships between population growth and inequality is difficult and standard measures are inadequate to test hypotheses about the distribution effects of migration or high fertility it appears to be impossible to differentiate changes in population make up from changes in economic status

aging population problems and policy options in the us and germany aging population axel borsch supan the expected change in the age structure of the industrialized countries will lead to a dramatically higher proportion of older people in germany for example 100 employed persons now support about 40 elderly by 2030 this ratio will rise to 85 elderly people per 100 employed persons this process will deeply affect labour financial and housing markets it will strain the social security systems change the accumulation of aggregate wealth and skew its intergenerational distribution while imposing a growing burden on family support by the young generation when the elderly are becoming frail and unable to live independently this paper investigates the mechanisms at work in labour financial and housing markets drawing systematically on comparisons between german and us institutions to determine the role of taxes subsidies and regulations the evidence demonstrates that economic policies have powerful effects some of them are also currently distortionary and interact with existing market imperfections so that a serious consideration of policy options which may moderate the implications of population aging is called for

a microeconometric evaluation of the active labour market policy in switzerland in the second part of the 1990 s switzerland conducted an ambitious active labour market policy almp encompassing a wide variety of programmes we evaluate the effects of these programmes on the individual employment probability of potential participants our econometric analysis uses unusually informative data origi nating from administrative unemployment and social security records we apply a matching es timator adapted for the case of multiple programmes we find substantial positive effects for one particular programme that is a unique feature of the swiss almp it consists of a wage subsidy for temporary jobs in the regular labour market that would otherwise not be taken up by the unemployed we also find large negative effects for traditional employment programmes oper ated in sheltered labour markets for training courses the results are mixed doi 10 1111 1468 0297 00072 download internet appendix pdf 2 590 kb

the income tax and nonwage compensation d ramatic changes in the division of labor compensation between wage and nonwage payments have occurred since world war ii voluntary employer contributions to private pension and welfare funds have risen from 1 2 of wage and salary compensation in 1947 to 8 3 in 1979 with half the increase taking place since 1969 see table 1 major changes in the composition of the fringe benefit package have also taken place during this period employer contributions to group health insurance plans have risen from 24 of total fringe benefits in 1947 to 40 o in 1979 if this growth continues group health insurance will replace pension and profit sharing plans as the largest fringe benefit expenditure by employers these trends in the compensation mix have long been noted by researchers and various factors have been offered as explanations including the favorable tax treatment of fringe benefits demographic changes such as increased life expectancy and unionization rice 1966 ture 1976 mabry 1973 freeman 1978 however most explanations have not been subjected to rigorous empirical testing and the few results that have been published are both questionable and dated for example rice 1966 estimated that changes in the tax rate structure had little influence on the relative increase in fringe benefits from world war ii to 1963 more recent studies schiller and weiss 1979 1980 have examined a specific fringe benefit the private pension plan for its impact on turnover and its role as an equalizing difference but these studies have not analyzed the determinants of the compensation mix this paper discusses the theoretical determinants of the division of labor compensation between fringe benefits and cash income and empirically estimates their importance it concentrates on the impact of taxation on the compensation mix for several reasons first the assumption that rising tax rates encourage individuals to substitute fringe benefits for cash income underlies estimates of the welfare cost of tax preferences browning 1979 second proposals to fully tax employee fringe benefits under a comprehensive9 income tax have surfaced in recent years nolan 1977 clotfelter 1979 finally current federal tax policy is calling for large tax rate reductions to increase supply incentives unlike the determinants of the compensation mix that change slowly over time such as life expectancy tax rate changes can occur rapidly through legislative action reducing tax rates might enlarge the tax base by increasing the fraction of labor income received as taxable cash wages and salaries section ii outlines the tax treatment of various forms of labor compensation and in section iii other factors thought to influence the choice between wage and nonwage compensation are discussed empirical analyses of the compensation mix are presented in section iv a brief summary and implications of the major findings for the future growth of fringe benefits follow in section v

tax policy and the demand for health insurance estimates of the price and income elasticities of demand for health insurance are derived from econometric estimates of the parameters of a discrete choice model of health insurance demand using data from a survey of plan choices among a sample of federal government employees the estimated income elasticity 0 01 is similar to most previous estimates the estimated price elasticity 0 16 is in absolute value much less than the earlier previous estimates and somewhat less than the more recent previous estimates possible causes of these differences in price elasticity estimates are discussed

estimates of the demand for medical care under different functional forms we estimate price and income elasticities from a linear log linear and the almost ideal demand model with and without an adjustment for selectivity bias in an effort to show that special attention should be paid to the underlying assumptions of consumer behaviour when estimating a medical care demand model the literature on medical care utilization is extended by incorporating two major components of spending as separate demands in a system of medical care spending we find that estimates of elasticities vary depending on the functional form of the estimating equation thus questioning the usefulness for policy purposes of single estimates of elasticities

subsidized temporary jobs lock in and stepping stone effects this article evaluates the effectiveness of subsidized temporary jobs as stepping stones to regular employment we study a french program that allows job seekers to work part time while remaining registered with the unemployment agency in this program insured individuals concurrently receive part of their unemployment benefits and wage income using administrative data we find that subsidized temporary jobs have both a significant lock in effect and a significant positive post treatment impact on the hazard rate to employment since individuals facing a high implicit tax rate have incentives to self select into better part time jobs we also find that a higher tax rate leads to a weaker lock in effect and a stronger post treatment effect simulations suggest that the lock in effect first dominates but that the overall effect eventually becomes positive they also point to ways of improving the effectiveness of the policy

the dynamics of population growth differential fertility and inequality note this note challenges the proposition david lam made in his attempt to examine the relationship between population growth and the distribution of income in the first 2 sections of his paper in which no income mobility was allowed lam successfully analyzed the effects of adding to the economy a group of immigrants with income distribution different from the original residents on 2 inequality measures in the 3rd section lam made the strong proposition that claims in effect in order to determine whether an increase in the ith income groups fertility would increase or reduce the steady state proportion of the ith income group all the information needed is the ith row of the mobility matrix a counterexample is presented here along with a correction for the error that is made in the derivation of lams proposition

population pensions and endogenous economic growth abstract we study the effect of a declining labor force on the incentives to engage in labor saving technical change and ask how this effect is influenced by institutional characteristics of the pension scheme when labor is scarcer it becomes more expensive and innovation investments that increase labor productivity are more profitable we incorporate this channel in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous economic growth and heterogeneous overlapping generations we calibrate the model for the us economy and obtain the following results first the effect of a decline in population growth on labor productivity growth is positive and quantitatively significant in our benchmark it is predicted to increase from an average annual growth rate of 1 74 over 1990 2000 to 2 41 in 2100 second institutional characteristics of the pension system matter both for the growth performance and for individual welfare third the assessment of pension reform proposals may depend on whether economic growth is endogenous or exogenous

welfare to temporary work implications for labor market outcomes we explore the effects of temporary help employment on welfare recipients subsequent employment and welfare dynamics we find that any employment in temporary help services or other sectors yields substantial benefits compared to no employment although welfare recipients who go to work for temporary help service firms have lower initial wages than those with jobs in other sectors they experience faster subsequent wage growth two years later they are no less likely to be employed their wages are close to those of other workers and they are only slightly more likely to remain on welfare

the impact of active labour market programmes on the duration of unemployment in switzerland this article evaluates the effects of swiss active labour market programmes on the job chances of unemployed workers the main innovation is a comparison of two important dynamic evaluation estimators the matching estimator and the timing of events estimator we find that both estimators generate different treatment effects according to the matching estimator temporary subsidised jobs shorten unemployment duration whereas training programmes and employment programmes do not in contrast the timing of events estimator suggests that none of the swiss active labour market programmes shortens unemployment duration the aim of the present article is to study the impact of active labour market policies almps on the duration of unemployment in switzerland the new swiss almps reflect the increasing consensus among policy makers that actively assisting the unemployed in job search is preferable to simply providing them with passive income support the danger is so the argument goes that reliance on passive income support may reduce work incentives and job search activities and therefore increase the risk of long term unemployment almps are seen by many as the key to minimise these risks the question how participation in almp measures affects labour market histories of individuals has been the subject of substantial debate the main problem is that labour market outcomes for participants may be systematically different from non participants

from populism to neoliberalism labor unions and market reforms in latin america in the late 1980s populist labor parties which had advanced protectionism and state intervention in the postwar period implemented market oriented reforms in argentina mexico and venezuela in all three countries market reforms hurt their union allies the interaction between allied unions and governing labor parties however varied across countries and across sectors within the same country while some unions endorsed neoliberal reforms others rejected them despite their long term alliance with governing parties while some unions obtained concessions others failed to do so this article argues that the incentives created by partisan loyalties partisan competition and union competition explain these interactions partisan loyalty results from the long term affiliation of unions with a political party partisan competition takes place among union leaders affiliated with different political parties for the control of unions union competition occurs in diverse national and sectoral contexts among labor organizations for the representation of the same workers loyalty derived from a long term affiliation with the incumbent party facilitates collaboration between labor unions and the government yet if partisan competition makes loyal union leaders afraid of being replaced by activists affiliated with the opposition parties their incentives for militancy increase as a way of showing their responsiveness to the rank and file hurt by market reforms union competition for the representation of the same workers makes coordination more difficult thereby weakening unions and making them less likely to obtain concessions from the government despite their partisan loyalty the article presents empirical evidence from eighteen cases including national confederations and individual unions in five economic sectors in argentina mexico and venezuela to test this theory

globalization taxation and burden shifting in latin america most researchers interested in the relationship between global markets and public policy focus on advanced industrial democracies in contrast we examine competing hypotheses as to globalization s effect on governments by expanding the scope of the discussion to include developing nations more specifically we investigate the relationship between international market integration and the evolving burden of taxation on capital as well as the subsequent response of markets to shifts in tax policy in latin america since the late 1970s consistent with our theoretical expectations we find that global market forces are more constraining vis a vis tax policy in latin america than in the world s wealthiest nations despite these market based pressures however national politics continue to influence tax policy in latin america in a manner consistent with findings on advanced industrial democracies as such developing nations continue to have some room to manipulate policy though within the context of a more strictly neoliberal context than their counterparts in advanced industrial democracies

does atypical work help the jobless evidence from a caeas cps cohort analysis atypical employment such as temporary on call and contract work has been found disproportionately to attract the jobless but there is no consensus in the literature as to the labour market consequences of such job choice by unemployed individuals using data from the current population survey we investigate the implications of the initial job finding strategies pursued by the jobless for their short and medium term employment stability at first sight it appears that taking an offer of regular employment provides the greatest degree of employment continuity for the jobless however closer inspection indicates that the jobless who take up atypical employment are not only more likely to be employed 1 month and 1 year later than those who continue to search but also to enjoy employment continuity that is not less favourable than that offered by regular open ended employment

health care is an individual necessity and a national luxury applying multilevel decision models to the analysis of health care expenditures health care is neither a necessity or a luxury it is both since the income elasticity varies with the level of analysis with insurance individual income elasticities are typically near zero while national health expenditure elasticities are commonly greater than 1 0 the debate over whether health care is or is not a luxury good arises primarily from the failure to specify levels of analysis clearly so as to distinguish variation within groups from variation between groups apparently contradictory empirical results are shown to be consistent with a simple nested multilevel model of health care spending

economic consequences of an aging population pip europe and japan are experiencing the aging of their populations aging implies a restructuring of the economy political issues which arise in an aging society include 1 a voting majority for the interests of the elderly 2 a voting majority of females 3 the domination of the decision power in corporate and similar ruling bodies and 4 unemployment or a long wait for promotion for younger people economic issues of an aging society include 1 population aging often occurs under reduced rates of growth of per capita national income 2 the relative economic status of the elderly very much depends on the currently existing tax transfer systems and 3 the income of families whose head is over age 65 has generally been more unequally distributed than the income for younger families issues concerning the labor supply of the elderly include 1 the availability of pension income and health limitations strongly influence decisions to retire and 2 older workers become disheartened and choose early retirement when facing bad reemployment prospects in general population aging is likely to have its most substantive effect on the overall level of productivity in an economy where technical knowledge is changing rapidly and strong competition necessitates a high degree of adaptability of the labor force

substitution between wage and nonwage benefits you gotta be kidding ollie you re just robbing yourself schuylkill mutual offers a terrific deal on keogh and we could plug you in in fact we advise plugging you in on the corporate end so not a nickel comes out of your personal pocket it comes out of the corporate pocket and there s that much less for uncle to tax these poor saps carrying their own premiums with no company input are living in the dark ages there s nothing shady about rigging it this way we re just using the laws the government has put there they want people to take advantage it all works to up the gross national product you know what i mean by keogh don t you you re looking kind of blank john updike p 296

partial unemployment insurance benefits and the transition rate to regular work abstract in finland unemployed workers who are looking for a full time job but take up a part time or very short full time job may qualify for partial unemployment benefits in exchange for partial benefits these applicants must continue their search of regular full time work this study analyzes the implications of working on partial benefits for subsequent transitions to regular employment the timing of events approach is applied to distinguish between causal and selectivity effects associated with the receipt of partial benefits the results suggest that partial unemployment associated with short full time jobs facilitates transitions to regular employment also part time working on partial benefits may help men but not women in finding a regular job afterwards