the value of hiring through employee referrals using personnel data from nine large firms in three industries call centers trucking and high tech we empirically assess the benefit to firms of hiring through employee referrals compared to nonreferred applicants referred applicants are more likely to be hired and more likely to accept offers even though referrals and nonreferrals have similar skill characteristics referred workers tend to have similar productivity compared to nonreferred workers on most measures but referred workers have lower accident rates in trucking and produce more patents in high tech referred workers are substantially less likely to quit and earn slightly higher wages than nonreferred workers in call centers and trucking the two industries for which we can calculate worker level profits referred workers yield substantially higher profits per worker than nonreferred workers these profit differences are driven by lower turnover and lower recruiting costs for referrals jel codes j24 m51 j30 j63

imperfect information and consumption in the united states and the united kingdom pischke 1995 has argued that imperfect information may account for the failure of hall s permanent income hypothesis to explain the behaviour of aggregate consumption we identify the restrictions that pischke s theory places on the dynamics of aggregate consumption and test them using quarterly data for the united kingdom and united states our results suggest that while pischke s model explains some features of the data which the hall model cannot it is formally rejected

job change patterns and the wages of young men this study uses data from the national longitudinal survey of youth to distinguish empirically between mover stayer search good and experience good models of job mobility we estimate wage models in which the pattern of overall job mobility affects both the level and tenure slope of the log wage path after controlling for the correlation between mobility patterns and time constant person and job specific unobservables we find that workers who undergo persistent mobility have lower log wage paths than less mobile workers this finding is consistent with models in which job mobility is driven by time varying unobservables such as experience good models where changes in perceived match quality cause turnover

team human capital and worker mobility we discuss the concept of team human capital and study the renegotiation of labor compensation after team members privately observe their own reservation wage as labor productivity can only be high if the number of quits does not exceed a threshold decisions concerning acceptance of individual wage demands become interdependent when a team is made up of salaried workers a peculiar case of efficiency wage results moreover inefficient team dissolution may occur we then show that inefficiency is less likely to occur when team members form a partnership

political economy of u s sugar policies this article examines political economic decision making with respect to u s sugar policies it evaluates the responsiveness of target prices and import quotas levels to changes in a the economic surpluses of market participants and b the federal budget deficit results indicate a weak linkage between sugar producer surplus and subsequent target prices levels but a strong linkage between the federal budget deficit and subsequent import quota levels the influences of sugar users corn sweetener producers and foreign countries are also examined

the estimation of surprise models and the surprise consumption function in the first part of the paper we outline a method for estimating a class of models in which news or surprises appear and expectations are formed rationally the method is an extension of the errors in variables method of mccallum and wickens as a by product some of pagan s results on the circumstances under which the commonly used two step method of estimating surprise models is efficient are shown to be a consequence of well known theorems on the efficiency of sub system estimation when a subset of equations are exactly identified in the second part of the paper the method is applied to hall s random walk model of consumption which is extended to allow for stochastic interest rates and for leisure and government spending to be substitutes for private spending the extended formulation is a great deal more successful at capturing the salient features of the data we also derive approximate restrictions across the parameters of the model due to the rational expectations hypothesis but find that they are marginally rejected by the data finally we evaluate the ability of the life cycle with rational expectations model to encompass alternative models

understanding the family gap in pay for women with children as the gender gap in pay between women and men has been narrowing the family gap in pay between mothers and nonmothers has been widening one reason may be the institutional structure in the united states which has emphasized equal pay and opportunity policies but not family policies in contrast to other countries that have implemented both the authors now have evidence on the links between one such family policy and women s pay recent research suggests that maternity leave coverage by raising women s retention after childbirth also raises women s levels of work experience job tenure and pay

a note on the estimation of the demand for sugar in the usa in the presence of measurement error in the data inaccuracy in the measurement of the price data for the substitute sweeteners for sugar is a problem encountered in the estimation of the demand for sugar two diagnostics are introduced to assess the effect that this measurement error has on the estimated coefficients of the sugar demand relationship the regression coefficient bounds diagnostic is used to indicate a range in which the true price responsiveness of consumers to changes in the price of sugar substitutes lies the bias correction factor is computed to evaluate the magnitude of the overestimation of the responsiveness of the quantity of beverage sugar and non beverage sugar demanded to a change in the price of sugar

search sorting and urban agglomeration studies have suggested that urban agglomeration enhances productivity by facilitating the firm worker matching process this article develops a model that formalizes this notion and demonstrates that when firm capital and worker skill are complementary in production urban agglomeration will tend to generate more efficient yet segregated matches as a result not only will local market size be positively associated with average productivity it will also generate greater between skill group wage inequality and a higher expected return to skill acquisition recent data from the counties and metropolitan areas of the united states is consistent with each of these implications

asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage given incomplete factor markets appropriate time paths of flow variables must be chosen to build required stocks of assets that is critical resources are accumulated rather than acquired in strategic factor markets barney barney j 1986 strategic factor markets expectations luck and business strategy management sci october 1231 1241 sustainability of a firm s asset position hinges on how easily assets can be substituted or imitated imitability is linked to the characteristics of the asset accumulation process time compression diseconomies asset mass efficiencies inter connectedness asset erosion and causal ambiguity

weak ties information and influence how workers find jobs in a local russian labor market in 1973 granovetter formulated the strength of weak ties hypothesis swt which became the foundation of a vast sociological literature on social networks in labor markets until now swt has neve

household specialization and the male marriage wage premium empirical research has consistently shown that married men have substantially higher wages on average than otherwise similar unmarried men one commonly cited hypothesis to explain this pattern is that marriage allows one spouse to specialize in market production and the other to specialize in home production enabling the former usually the husband to acquire more market specific human capital and ultimately earn higher wages the authors test this hypothesis using panel data from the national survey of families and households the data reveal that married men spent virtually the same amount of time on home production as did single men albeit on different types of housework estimates from a fixed effects wage equation indicate that the male marriage wage premium is not substantially affected by controls for home production activities household specialization the authors conclude does not appear to have been responsible for the marriage premium in this sample

do wages rise with job seniority a reassessment the authors provide new estimates of the return to job seniority using a dataset similar to that employed in joseph altonji and robert shakotko do wages rise with job seniority review of economic studies 1987 and robert topel specific capital mobility and wages journal of political economy 1991 they consider the strengths and weaknesses of these studies treatment of economy wide trends their dating conventions for tenure and wages their handling of wage observations that might span multiple jobs and their estimation approaches re estimation points to an effect often years of tenure on the log wage equal to 11 which is above the preferred estimate of altonji and shakotko but far below that of topel changes in earnings distributions and in the employment relationship motivate the examination of more recent data perhaps surprisingly the return to tenure has probably increased over time

early career work experience and gender wage differentials we estimate a wage model that includes an array of variables measuring the fraction of time worked during each year of the career this array fully characterizes past employment experience regardless of how sporadic it has been our model yields substantially higher estimated returns to experience and lower returns to tenure than do models that measure experience cumulatively and use the standard quadratic functional form we find that the data reject the standard model but fail to reject our model furthermore we find that 12 of the male female wage gap is due to differences in the timing of work experience

firm specific human capital a skill weights approach the theory of human capital is agnostic on what constitutes firm specific skills the theory specifies that specific skills contribute to productivity only at the current firm a broader approach lets all skills be general but firms use them with different weights attached for example computer programming economics and accounting are general skills but there may be only one firm that wants workers trained in all three one implication is that wage profiles and the split of human capital costs depend on thickness of the market another is that firms pay for what appears to be general training

corporate demography and income inequality we examine the relationship between income inequality and corporate demography in regional labor markets and specify two mechanisms through which the number and diversity of employers in a labor market affect wage dispersion vertical differentiation or variation in the ability of organizations of a particular kind to benefit from labor inputs amplifies inequality through quality sorting as the most productive employees in a particular domain pair with the most productive employers increasing horizontal differentiation variation in the kinds of organizations reduces inequality as individuals can more easily find firms interested in their distinctive attributes and talents our analysis of danish census data provides support for each thesis increased numbers of organizations operating within an industry in a region a proxy for vertical differentiation increases wage dispersion in that industry region variation in wages however declines with increased horizontal differentiation among employers th

industry specific capital and the wage profile evidence from the national longitudinal survey of youth and the panel study of income dynamics using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 96 and the panel study of income dynamics 1981 91 i seek to determine whether there is any net positive return to tenure with the current employer once we control for industry specific capital including total experience in the industry as an additional explanatory variable i show that the return to seniority is markedly reduced using gls while it virtually disappears using iv gls at both the one digit and three digit levels therefore it seems that what matters most for the wage profile in terms of human capital is industry specificity not firm specificity

gains and losses of sugar program policy options high domestic sugar prices supported by u s sugar policy have induced a significant substitution of corn sweeteners for sugar recognizing the close relationship between sugar and corn sweeteners this study applies a general equilibrium approach to evaluate the distributional effects of three different policy options i e quota tariff and deficiency payment on sugar related interest groups the results show that the current quota policy intended ostensibly to protect domestic sugar producers have hurt foreign exporters it will harm domestic sugar producers if the trend continues additionally the quota program is the most expensive of the options considered

hiring molecules not atoms comobility and wages what role do social connections play in the labor market a vast influential literature has detailed the ways in which ties facilitate the flow of information about job opportunities to workers as well as endorsements or referrals of workers to firms we propose that this role is not constrained to an informational one alone rather relationships between workers can enable a collective job matching process that facilitates the transfer of shared human capital from one organization to another yet comobility has been studied only occasionally and among elite workers in particular industries this study delivers both fieldwork as well as large sample analysis among all nongovernmental workers in denmark finding a 5 5 wage premium for those who move jointly instead of independently both in the full sample as well as when applying strict matching or fixed effects for workers or firms co movers whose skills are related but not identical capture a higher premium and the wage gains associated with comob

changing consequences of job separation in the united states using the panel study of income dynamics the author examines the consequences of job loss between the periods 1976 81 and 1986 91 he finds stability in the overall incidence of job separation but a statistically significant increase in the incidence of involuntary job loss relative to quits for older workers he also finds that the consequences of involuntary job loss worsened the reemployment rate of workers who experienced involuntary job loss dropped from 67 in 1976 81 to 62 in 1986 91 and among those who found new jobs the odds of receiving a large wage cut rose from 9 in 1976 81 to 17 in 1986 91

finite horizons life cycle savings and time series evidence on consumption abstract this paper develops an explicitly aggregated life cycle model which allows for finite horizons and declining individual labor supply the model can generate a common upward trend in aggregate consumption labor income and nonhuman wealth without relinquishing hall s random walk at the micro level life cycle factors are shown to imply that consumption changes should be a predictable and b smoother than in the infinite horizon model econometric evidence using postwar u s data suggests that neither consumption s predictability nor its excess smoothness can be fully accounted for by life cycle considerations

the returns to mobility and job search by gender using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth the authors estimate the returns to job search mobility and the interaction of search and mobility for young men and women they find st

the economic consequences of labor mobility unlike most previous research on the relative changes in earnings of job stayers and job changers this study examines the variance in earnings changes rather than simply average changes men and women rather than only men and the five year period following job change rather than only the first year or two the author finds great variability in earnings changes both within and across race and gender groups notably men gained more from quits and except in the case of low wage workers lost less from layoffs than women also men suffered a much smaller penalty than women for repeated job changes for all groups the percentage difference between earnings before and after leaving a job generally persisted for several years

labor market mobility and cash compensation the moderating effects of race and gender building upon the gender based study conducted by brett and stroh 1997 we examined the moderating effects of gender and race on the relationship between changing employers and compensation attai

job mobility and gender based wage growth differentials i introduction evidence presented by goldin 1989 o neill 1985 and others shows that the gender wage gap is narrowing much of the narrowing has been attributed to changes in female employment behavior such as the increased consistency of labor force participation and investment in education however because wages are not yet equal questions remain for example does mobility play a role in the remaining wage gap in this paper we examine the role of mobility because this has been a relatively neglected area of interest for researchers concerned about the gender wage gap some evidence on gender differences in mobility and the returns to mobility has been presented but there is little consistency in the reported evidence keith and mcwilliams 1995 demonstrate that the mobility histories of young men and women differ significantly loprest 1992 reports that for a sample of individuals who worked full time for four consecutive years young men s wages grew twice as much when they changed jobs i e employers as young women s did however abbott and beach 1994 find that the wage effects of mobility for women are similar in magnitude to the gains that mincer 1986 and holmlund 1984 find for men given the sometimes conflicting results reported so far determining the extent and the cause of gender differences in wage mobility effects has important implications for gender wage gap arguments in this study we examine the patterns and the returns to mobility for young men and women to examine mobility patterns we disaggregate mobility into involuntary or employer initiated and voluntary or employee initiated separations we further disaggregate involuntary separations into layoffs and discharges and we further disaggregate voluntary separations into family related and non family related quits by examining the impact of each of these different types of job separation on wage growth and the difference in the relative frequency of each type of separation for men and women we can make inferences about the impact of early career mobility on the gender wage gap the remainder of this paper is organized as follows in section ii we review evidence on the returns to different types of mobility in section iii we present evidence on gender differences in mobility and wage growth we use data from the national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy to examine the mobility patterns of men and women and to calculate average wages and average wage growth in section iv we describe how we selected a sample and specified a model for estimating the determinants of wage growth in section v we examine the wage growth effects of different types of mobility controlling for starting wages and individuals fixed effects in section vi we discuss our conclusions ii the returns to different types of mobility workers change jobs for different reasons some voluntary and some involuntary there is some evidence that the returns to different types of mobility differ not surprisingly there is consistent evidence that employee initiated separations quits increase wage growth and that employer initiated separations layoffs and discharges decrease wage growth relative to staying with the same employer 1 additional evidence on the job mobility and wage growth of men has been offered as well bartel and borjas 1981 show that job related quits have a larger positive impact on wage growth than do non job related quits with the highest wage growth resulting from those quits that are associated with successful job shopping parsons 1989 shows that for young men an employer initiated separation with prejudice a discharge results in a larger wage penalty than an employer initiated separation without prejudice a layoff keith 1993 and keith and mcwilliams 1995 show that the number of previous discharges decreases and the number of previous job related quits increases the current wage for samples of young men

when competitive advantage doesn t lead to performance the resource based view and stakeholder bargaining power what if rent from a competitive advantage is appropriated so it cannot be observed in performance measures the resourcebased view was not formulated to examine who will get the rent yet this essay argues that the factors leading to a resource based advantage also predict who will appropriate rent knowledge based assets are promising because firm specificity social complexity and causal ambiguity make them hard to imit ate however the roles of internal stakeholders may grant them a great deal of bargaining power especially relative to investors this essay integrates the resource based view with the bargaining power literature by defining the firm as a nexus of contracts this new lens can help to explain when rent will be generated and simultaneously who will appropriate it in doing so it provides a more robust theory of firm performance than the resource based view alone it is also suggested that this lens might be useful for examining other theories of firm performance

market definition in antitrust analysis a regression based approach alleged violations of either sherman 2 s antimonopoly strictures or clayton 7 s proscriptions against anticompetitive mergers necessarily involve a particular product and must occur in a particular place that is the plaintiff in either a 2 or 7 suit must define a relevant market within which the violation alleged has occurred even in the most mundane antitrust analysis however market definition is rarely readily accomplished and unaccompanied by a series of caveats and the possibility of the opposing parties in an antitrust suit failing to contest each other s proffered definition is virtually nil 2 because economists from

liquidity constraints and the substitutability between private and government consumption the role of military and non military spending i introduction using data for a number of economies we investigate i the relationship between private consumption and two types of government spending military and non military and ii the severity of liquidity constraints because of their importance for macroeconomic modeling in theory and practice 1 both issues have been the subjects of considerable theoretical and empirical investigation on the issue of liquidity constraints the most influential research has relied on hall s 1978 euler equation approach to the permanent income hypothesis in an attempt to reconcile hall s and flavin s 1981 methodologies hayashi 1982 modified hall s martingale result to allow for the possibility that a subset of consumers are liquidity constrained and showed that liquidity constraints can result in consumption s excess sensitivity to current income campbell and mankiw 1989 1990 1991 and jappelli and pagano 1989 have applied hayashi s methodology using data from the u s and several other oecd countries on the substitutability issue aschauer 1985 has modified hall s euler equation to allow for substitutability between government spending and private consumption and found that the two are substitutes for the u s karras 1994 however using a similar approach and data for 30 countries concludes that private and government consumption are better described as complementary or unrelated liquidity constraints and substitutability have been combined in studies by graham and himarios 1991 cushing 1992 and graham 1993 using u s data and by evans and karras 1996 for a number of countries a crucial limitation of most of these studies is the use of aggregate government consumption data which counterintuitively imposes a common substitutability parameter on all components of government spending 2 using recently available time series data for a large number of countries the present paper relaxes this restriction by decomposing government consumption into military and non military components enabling us to separately identify their relationship to private consumption the allocation of government consumption between military and non military functions has varied greatly across countries the appendix reports the average size of military and non military government shares in gdp as well as the military non military ratio by country over the 1970 1989 period average military expenditure as a fraction of gdp for example has ranged in our sample from 0 11 in mexico to 12 30 in jordan similarly the fraction of government consumption absorbed by military expenditure has ranged from 1 09 in mauritius to 66 82 in poland this sizable variability is promising in terms of cross sectional identification power but it also suggests that the estimated parameters must not be assumed to be common across countries the estimated model is derived in section ii which combines liquidity constraints and substitutability by nesting the approaches of hayashi 1982 and aschauer 1985 in the same section we discuss data sources and the estimation strategy which permits the estimated parameters to vary by country in a way that helps determine how they are influenced by country specific factors section iii estimates the model for a panel of the 66 countries for which annual data on all series are available for the 1970 1989 period the paper s main conclusions are given in section iv ii methodology and data we assume that consumers in economy i at time t derive utility from effective consumption c sup which we define as 1 mathematical expression omitted where c is private consumption g sup m and g sup nm are the military and non military components of government consumption the parameters theta sup m and theta sup nm measure the degree of substitutability between c and g sup m and c and g sup nm respectively

information aggregation bias aggregation in the presence of data processing lags distorts the information content of data violating orthogonality restrictions that hold at the individual level though the phenomenon is general it is illustrated here for the life cycle permanent income model cross section and pooled panel data induce information aggregation bias akin to that in aggregate time series calculations show that information aggregation can seriously bias tests of the life cycle model on aggregate time series cross section and pooled panel data copyright 1992 by american economic association

private and government consumption with liquidity constraints abstract economic theory predicts that liquidity constraints and substitutability or complementarity between private and government consumption result in excess sensitivity of private consumption to income and government consumption respectively using annual data we estimate these excess sensitivity parameters for each of 54 countries and show that they not only have sensible values but are also correlated with several variables in ways consistent with economic theory our findings imply that the degree of substitutability between government services and private consumption depends negatively on the fraction of government spending that goes to national defense we also find that liquidity constraints typically exist and they are affected positively by output variability and negatively by the saving rate

human capital matching and job satisfaction we offer an explanation of the negative tenure effect in empirical job satisfaction equations if job satisfaction measures match quality the explanation follows from specific human capital accumulation and how this affects workers reactions to outside job opportunities

the firm strikes back non compete agreements and the mobility of technical professionals this study explores how firms shape labor markets and career paths using employee non compete agreements the sociology of work has overlooked non competes but data indicate that nearly half of technical professionals in the united states are asked to sign such employment contracts fearing loss of investments in talent and trade secrets firms use non competes to strike back against technical professionals increased mobility following the decline of internal labor markets in depth interviews with 52 randomly sampled patent holders in a single industry coupled with a survey of 1 029 engineers across a variety of industries reveal that ex employees subject to non competes are more likely to take career detours that is they involuntarily leave their technical field to avoid a potential lawsuit moreover firms strategically manage the process of getting workers to sign such contracts waiting for workers bargaining position to weaken these findings inform our understanding of the social organizati

job duration seniority and earnings an important stylized fact about labor markets is that workers with longer seniority with their current employer have higher earnings than other workers with the same total labor market experience this study shows that workers in longer jobs earn more throughout than workers in a series of shorter jobs and that the measured positive cross sectional return seniority is largely a statistical artifact due to the correlation of seniority with an omitted variable representing the quality of the worker the job or the worker employer match the implication is tha t earnings do not in fact rise very much with seniority copyright 1987 by american economic association

incomplete information and the time series behaviour of consumption pischke 1995 uses both microeconomic and macroeconomic us data to test the idea that within an otherwise standard pih framework ignorance by agents of aggregate labour income can account for the observed degree of excess smoothness and sensitivity in consumption his tests involve only the second moments of aggregate consumption and labour income in this paper our main aim is to identify and test the restrictions his model implies for aggregate consumption dynamics using us quarterly data over the period 1959 1996 but our framework allows us also to test an earlier related model of goodfriend 1992 we find that both models can be formally rejected ignorance of aggregate labour income cannot by itself account for aggregate consumption dynamics some other relaxation of the assumptions of the standard pih is required we give an example of one possible such relaxation and present evidence indicating that pischke s version of imperfect information may within that framework have a significant role to play copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

the wage effects of cumulative job mobility this analysis of data from the national longitudinal survey of youth shows that cumulative job mobility had statistically significant effects on wages in the years 1979 88 the direction of the wage effects positive or negative and their magnitude varied depending on the type of cumulative mobility examined employee initiated versus employerinitiated separations economic versus family related quits layoffs versus discharges the results also indicate that although men and women had different mobility histories men for example had been discharged more often than women and women had quit for family related reasons more often than men the wage effects of each type of cumulative mobility economic quits family related quits layoffs and discharges were similar for men and women tn this paper we examine the impact of cumulative job mobility on the subsequent wages of young men and women most previous work on this subject has focused on the impact of specific mobility events such as quits or layoffs rather than on the impact of total job history on wages researchers looking at single mobility decisions have consistently reported evidence that a change in employers does affect a worker s subsequent wage therefore it is reasonable to ask whether the impact ofjob change is cumulative that is does a worker s current wage reflect the impact of all past mobility decisions quits layoffs and discharges also since most of the

workers versus firms bargaining over a firm s value we introduce a distinction between a firm and its network of workers in a competitive world if networks are easily lured away the workers must receive the entire value of their contribution to the firm how then can service firms have equity value a model is analysed in which workers are paid less as a group than their value even in a competitive world the workers are assumed to have a nonwage benefit for working at the current firm this benefit is privately known these privately known benefits make it impossible for the workers to agree on a division of their value should they leave the existing firm for a new enterprise the result is that the workers may receive a total compensation that is less than their contribution to the firm

social capital and finding a job do contacts matter does social capital affect labor market outcomes the prevalent use of job contacts to find work suggests that who you know is an important means of getting a good job network theories of social capital argue that well connected workers benefit because of the job information and influence they receive through their social ties although a number of studies have found a positive relationship between measures of social capital and wages and or occupational prestige little is known about the causal effect of social networks on labor market outcomes four data sets are used to reassess findings on the role of social capital in the labor market a test of causality is proposed based on the argument that if social capital variables do have a causal effect on job outcomes then workers with high levels of social capital should be more likely to use contacts to find work all else being equal results suggest that much of the effect of social capital in the existing literature reflects the tendency for similar people to become friends rather than a causal effect of friends characteristics on labor market outcomes

wage changes and job changes of canadian women the paper employs data from the 1986 87 labour market activity survey to investigate empirically how the wage rates of female paid workers in canada change when they change jobs in particular whether canadian women realize short run wage gains from job mobility following mincer 1986 we estimate the short run wage gain to job mobility by comparing the between job wage changes of current period job movers with the on the job wage growth of next period job movers the findings indicate that canadian women who changed jobs in 1986 realized short run wage gains of 8 9 percent and that women who quit their first job for nonpersonal job related reasons realized substantially greater wage gains than did women who quit for personal reasons were laid off or separated for other reasons

job mobility and wage trajectories for men and women in the united states young american workers typically change employers many times in the course of establishing their careers this article examines the consequences of this mobility for wage inequalities between and among men and women using multilevel modeling and data from the 1979 to 2002 waves of the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 nlsy79 i disentangle the various ways in which mobility shapes the trajectories of wage growth findings caution against accepting the adequacy of prevalent economic models of mobility models that tend to isolate individual workers moves from broader patterns of work history and that treat mobility as a decontextualized individual choice although workers who frequently switch employers generally end up earning less than their more stable counterparts the type timing and relative level of changes strongly affect the ultimate wage differential differences in the degree of men s and women s labor force attachment and family circumstances are also influential workers who are l

some contacts are more equal than others informal networks job tenure and wages the explanation typically given for longer tenure among workers who use informal contacts to find jobs is that relatives and friends reduce uncertainty about the quality of the match between worker and employer an alternative explanation is that workers rely on informal information sources as a last resort such workers remain at their current jobs mainly because they have few alternative choices rather than because of better match quality this article shows that the two different explanations are simultaneously valid for different types of contacts and can account for differences in the wage effects of job contacts

how effective is fiscal policy in raising national saving while fiscal adjustment is commonly viewed as the cornerstone of macroeconomic stabilization the effectiveness of alternative fiscal instruments in raising national saving is still poorly understood this paper enters the debate by estimating a private consumption function that allows for two types of agents finite horizons and liquidity constraints and nests three different consumption hypotheses using a large panel data set that includes both industrial and developing countries we reject full ricardian equivalence we also find substantial differences between industrial and developing countries regarding both the extent of ricardian offsetting and the degree to which the government budget constraint is internalized

ricardian equivalence under imperfect information abstract in the us aggregate private consumption changes are excessively sensitive not only to current and lagged changes in income but also to current and lagged changes in government expenditures i give a new theoretical interpretation to this observation i show that this excess sensitivity arises when consumers take into account the link between taxes and government expenditures i e when they are ricardian but lack exact information on the aggregate economy while the model provides a simultaneous explanation for both types of excess sensitivity the strong restrictions that it imposes on the data are not supported by the results of econometric estimation

revisiting the small firm effect on entrepreneurship evidence from firm dissolutions afrequent claim in the entrepreneurship literature is that employees learn to become entrepreneurs during paid employment we revisit this mechanism in the context of the well established finding that smaller firms generate higher rates of entrepreneurship we propose a novel mechanism responsible for higher rates of entrepreneurship emanating from smaller firms large firms might have a advantage over small firms in providing internal opportunities to retain entrepreneurial talent we test this claim in a setting where firm dissolution extinguishes internal opportunities using a new hand collected data set of career histories in the automatic speech recognition asr industry for nondefunct firms we replicate the small firm effect however the small firm effect no longer holds within the subsample of defunct firms entrepreneurship rates among individuals present at firm dissolution are in fact higher for larger firms additional analyses indicate that this effect is unlikely to be driven by the ea

matching turnover and unemployment this paper develops the view that workers move into and out of the labor market because of changes in the perceived value of their market opportunities a search model is combined with a matching model to yield movement of workers from job to job and into and out of employment

individual income incomplete information and aggregate consumption individual income is much more variable than aggregate per capita income i argue that aggregate information is therefore not very important for individual consumption decisions and study models of life cycle consumption in which individuals react optimally to their own income process but have incomplete or no information on economy wide variables since individual income is less persistent than aggregate income consumers will react too little to aggregate income variation aggregate consumption will be excessively smooth since aggregate information is slowly incorporated into consumption aggregate consumption will be autocorrelated and correlated with lagged income on the other hand the model has the same prediction for micro data as the standard permanent income model the second part of the paper provides empirical evidence on individual and aggregate income processes different models for individual income are fit to quarterly data from the survey of income and program participation making various adjustments for measurement error calibrating the consumption model using the estimated parameters for the income process yields predictions which qualitatively correspond to the empirical findings for aggregate consumption but do not match them well in magnitude

reputation voluntary mobility and wages this study analyzes the effect of voluntary mobility on subsequent wages to discover if there are wage penalties associated with repeated mobility to reduce the endogeneity between wages and voluntary mobility the sample is restricted to young males on their first job following a permanent layoff using respondents from the national longitudinal survey of youth ordinary least squares wage equations from the layoff sample are compared to those from a sample of workers who remained employed the evidence shows that voluntary mobility differentially affects the wage equations of the restricted and the unrestricted samples copyright 1993 by mit press

fiscal policy in good times and bad in the 1980s several countries with large government debt or deficit implemented substantial and in some cases drastic deficit cuts contrary to widespread expectations in many cases private consumption boomed rather than contracted this paper shows that in times of fiscal stress shocks to government revenues and especially expenditure have very different effects on private consumption than in normal times

the capabilities of new firms and the evolution of the us automobile industry firms that diversify into new and existing industries typically outperform de novo entrants but in some new industries diversifying firms are displaced by later entering de novo firms little is known about when and how new firms can overcome the advantages of diversifying firms this is investigated for one industry automobiles where new firms had considerable success all the entrants into the industry from its inception in 1895 through 1966 are identified the heritage of every entrant into the industry is traced including the founders of de novo entrants to explore how time of entry and pre entry experience affected firm survival while diversifying firms on average outperformed de novo entrants de novo entrants founded by individuals that worked for the leading automobile firms outperformed all firms and dominated the industry this is attributed to the novel organizational challenges faced by automobile firms which made the leading firms ideal training grounds for new entrants the implications of these findings for firm capabilities industry competition and regional economic development are discussed copyright 2002 oxford university press

order from chaos the effects of early labor market experiences on adult labor market outcomes this paper examines the consequences of initial periods of churning or mobility in the labor market to help assess whether faster transitions to stable employment relationships as envisioned by advocates of school to work programs would be likely to lead to better adult labor market outcomes an analysis of national longitudinal survey of youth data for the years 1979 92 yields modest evidence at best linking early job market stability to better labor market outcomes the authors find that for both genders adult labor market outcomes defined as of the late 20s or early to mid 30s are for the most part unrelated to early labor market experiences this evidence does not support efforts to explicitly target the school to work transition insofar as doing so implies changing the structure of youth labor markets so that workers form earlier and firmer attachments to employers industries or occupations

job stability in the united states two key attributes of a job are its wage and its duration much has been made of changes in the wage distribution in the 1980s but little attention has been given to job durations since hall we fill this void by examining the temporal evolution of job retention rates in u s labor markets using data assembled from the sequence of current population survey job tenure supplements there have been relative declines in job stability for some of the groups that experienced the sharpest declines in relative wages however we find that aggregate job retention rates have remained stable

an empirical analysis on the substitutability between private consumption and government purchases abstract this paper estimates substitutability of government purchases for private consumption using an optimal consumption model the utility function features several types of nonseparabilities the paper finds that gmm estimates are affected by the specification of nonseparability between private consumption and government purchases by the restriction of time separability and by the measurement of real interest rates

the permanent income hypothesis and consumption durability analysis based on japanese panel data the permanent income hypothesis with durability of commodities is tested on a panel of about 2 000 japanese households for several commodity groups under static expectations about real interest rates and for some class of utility functions consumption which is a distributed lag function of current and past expenditure follows a martingale main empirical results are i the durability of commodities usually classified as services is substantial ii the hypothesis applies to about 85 percent of the population consisting of wage earners and iii income changes explain only a small fraction of the movements in expenditure

explaining wage inequality in telecommunications services customer segmentation human resource practices and union decline this study examines factors related to within occupation wage inequality among service and sales workers in the telecommunications industry the author draws on a 1998 survey of a nationally representative sample of 354 service and sales centers in the industry to examine the importance of management practices and union institutions in shaping wage variation the results strongly indicate that business strategies of customer segmentation and human resource practices explain variation in wages over and above that explained by the human capital of the work force in addition despite extensive deregulation and de unionization of the industry the union wage premium is 22

industrial shifts skills levels and the labor market for white and black males in this paper we estimate the effects of industrial shifts in the 1970s and 1980s on the wages and employment of black and white males we use micro census data for 52 msa s and estimate effects separately by age and education group the results show that industrial shifts did reduce demand for blacks and for less skilled males in the 1970s and 1980s demand shifts away from manufacturing in particular reduced employment and wages for black and white males while the magnitudes of these effects are fairly small for many groups they can account for one third to one half of the employment decline for less educated young blacks in the 1970s these results imply fairly large effects on the earnings of less skilled males in the 1980s as well authors

the road taken origins and evolution of employment systems in emerging companies excerpt drawing on a unique archive of qualitative and quantitative data describing 100 bay area high technology firms within their first decade this paper examines the models of employment relations espoused by company founders and bow those models shaped the evolution of human resource management within their organizations information gleaned from interviews suggests that founders and others involved in designing and launching these companies had blueprints for the employment relation that varied along three key dimensions the primary basis of employee attachment and motivation the primary means for controlling and coordinating work and the primary criterion emphasized in selection based on combinations of these three dimensions firms in our sample cluster fall into one of four distinct types which we label the star factory engineering and commitment models multivariate statistical analyses document how the founder s employment model shaped the subsequent adoption and timing of various human resource policies and documents over these companies early histories as well as the speed with which the first full time human resource manager was appointed the findings are strongly suggestive of complementarities and a tendency toward internal consistency among dimensions of human resource management and of strong path dependence in the evolution of employment systems in organizations some implications of these findings for transactions cost perspectives on the employment relationship are discussed

cumulative gender disadvantage in contract employment women s wages do not grow with experience or tenure as much as men s do many accounts of this cumulative gender disadvantage attribute it to women s underinvestment in firm specific skills yet if that were true this disadvantage would not exist where firm specific skills are not rewarded by the labor market this article investigates this argument in the context of contract employment where demand for firm specificity is minimal contrary to expectations men still receive higher rewards than women over time drawing on quantitative evidence and qualitative fieldwork using job histories of high skill contractors affiliated with a staffing firm the author finds support for two sources of women s disadvantage lower rates of movement across clients on the supply side and unmeasured demand side factors by which similar levels of tenure and client transitions accrue lower rewards to women implications for research on gender stratification and career advancement in nonformalized labor markets are discussed

the accumulation of dis advantage the intersection of gender and race in the long term wage effect of marriage a sizable literature examines whether and why marriage affects men s and women s wages this study advances current research in two ways first whereas most prior studies treat the effect of marri