the acquisition of fisher body by general motors abstract it is commonly said that in 1926 general motors was led to acquire its supplier of automobile bodies fisher body because fisher body held up general motors it is claimed that fisher body did this by locating its body plants far away from the general motors assembly plants and by adapting inefficient methods of production thus increasing both the cost of producing bidies and the profits of fisher body under its cost plus contract this tale is factually incorrect what general motors acquired in 1926 was the 40 percent of the shares of fisher body that it did not already own furthermore fisher body did not locate its plants far away from the general motors assembly plants it is also most implausible for many reasons that the fisher brothers would have used inefficient methods of production there is no evidence that a holdup occurred

the one child policy a macroeconomic analysis abstract this paper studies the effects of china s one child policy using a calibrated general equilibrium model a benchmark with a fertility constraint in place is compared to a counterfactual experiment without the fertility constraint the results indicate that the implementation of the one child policy promotes the accumulation of human capital and increases per capita output in addition the policy leads to different welfare effects across generations and skill groups the initial generation would benefit from relaxing the one child policy but the following generations would be hurt a redistribution effect between skilled and unskilled workers is also observed these findings demonstrate that focusing solely on gdp per capita as a measure of economic well being paints an incomplete picture of the welfare consequences of population policies

expanding the solution set organizational economics and agri environmental policy abstract the market failure paradigm dominates agri environmental research and policy organizational economics provides an alternative framework for analyzing agri environmental problems and points to alternative solutions in this paper the traditional approach of creating markets for environmental goods and services is critiqued and set aside to provide space for an organizational analysis from an organizational perspective the relationship between the state and agricultural agents is viewed as grounded in an over arching exchange relationship including elements of cooperation and trust such a collaborative exchange relationship may prove useful in supporting exchange between agricultural agents and the state leading to the provision of ecological goods and services highlighting the potential of organizational economics the analysis suggests that agri environmental research and policy go further in accounting for and investigating the unique organizational modes of exchange governing the production of food fiber and ecological goods and services

the japanese saving rate despite much work economists have not been able to quantitatively account for the differences in the japanese and u s saving rates after world war ii in this paper we show that the use of actual japanese total factor productivity growth rates in a standard growth model generates saving rates that are reasonably similar to the japanese data between 1956 and 2000 jel e21 e22 o41 o47

measuring the value of life saving from consumer reactions to new information abstract past studies have relied on cross section patterns of risky behavior to generate estimates of the value of life saving this approach is colored by several problems that affect the reliability of the results in potentially serious ways it is difficult to separate the risk components from the dis utility attributes of work or consumption to avoid selectivity biases and to disentangle user costs e g wearing a face mask from the risk premium paid for accepting risk to circumvent some of these difficulties this paper uses a different approach one which exploits the information about the value of risk reduction that is provided by changing consumption patterns over time brought about by changes in available information about risks this approach makes it possible to more reliably estimate the pure effects of risks on behavior and to generate unbiased distributions of the value of life saving the case of cigarette consumption over time provides an ideal setting to illustrate this methodology

the new institutional economics this outstanding book presents new original contributions from some of the world s leading economists including ronald coase douglass c north masahiko aoki oliver e williamson and harold demsetz it demonstrates the extent and depth of the new institutional economics research programme which is having a worldwide impact on the economics profession

labor supply and the optimality of social security abstract traditional economic theory predicts that an unfunded public pension system can be justified on the basis of its ability to provide intergenerational transfers and also for its ability to provide partial insurance against mortality and labor income risks in this paper i demonstrate that the quantitative importance of these traditional roles depends on how the pension system distorts households labor supply decisions using a general equilibrium life cycle consumption model calibrated to the u s economy i show that these distortions can be large enough to erase much of the traditional welfare gains from social security i also find that this fact is robust within the range of labor supply elasticities usually encountered in the macroeconomic literature

does public insurance crowd out private insurance the cost of expanding public sector health programs depends critically on the extent to which public eligibility will cover just the uninsured or will crowd out existing private insurance coverage we estimate the extent of crowd out arising from the expansions of medicaid to pregnant women and children over the 1987 1992 period we estimate that approximately 50 percent of the increase in medicaid coverage was associated with a reduction in private insurance coverage this occurred largely because employees took up employer based insurance less frequently there is also some evidence that employers contributed less for insurance and that workers dropped coverage of dependents

differential mortality and the progressivity of social security abstract there is a well established negative correlation between earnings and mortality risk using a calibrated general equilibrium macroeconomic model this paper examines how this correlation interacts with the welfare implications of social security s benefit earnings rule my primary findings suggest that the welfare ranking of alternative benefit earnings rules is somewhat sensitive to differential mortality due to their relatively high mortality risk households with unfavorable earnings histories heavily discount the expected utility from old age consumption and therefore do not put much weight on better work retirement consumption smoothing because of this reason social security s benefit earnings rule warrants less redistribution in the presence of differential mortality compared to when mortality risk is uncorrelated to earnings i find that this result continues to hold when household level labor supply distortions are ignored and also when an alternative maximin welfare criterion is considered but not when accidental bequests from the deceased are redistributed to the survivors

the evolution of china s one child policy and its effects on family outcomes abstract in 1979 china introduced its unprecedented one child policy under which households exceeding the birth quota were penalized however estimating the effect of this policy on family outco

the nature of precautionary wealth abstract this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to provide some of the first direct evidence that wealth is systematically higher for consumers with predictably greater income uncertainty however the apparent pattern of precautionary wealth is not consistent with a standard parameterization of the life cucle model in which consumers are patient enough to begin saving for retirement early in life wealth is estimated to be far less sensitive to uncertainty than implied by that model instead our results suggest that over most of their working life time consumers behave in accordance with the buffer stock models of saving described in carroll 1992 1997 or deaton 1991 in which consumers hold wealth principally to insulate consumption against near term fluctuations in income

pareto improving social security reform when financial markets are incomplete this paper studies an overlapping generations model with stochastic production and incomplete markets to assess whether the introduction of an unfunded social security system leads to a pareto improvement when returns to capital and wages are imperfectly correlated a system that endows retired households with claims to labor income enhances the sharing of aggregate risk between generations our quantitative analysis shows that abstracting from the capital crowding out effect the introduction of social security represents a pareto improving reform even when the economy is dynamically efficient however the severity of the crowding out effect in general equilibrium tends to overturn these gains

social security and the rise in health spending abstract in a quantitative model of social security with endogenous health i argue that social security increases the aggregate health spending of the economy because it redistributes resources to the elderly whose marginal propensity to spend on health is high i show by using computational experiments that the expansion of us social security can account for over a third of the dramatic rise in us health spending from 1950 to 2000 in addition social security has a spill over effect on medicare as social security increases health spending it also increases the payments from medicare thus raising its financial burden

the impact of the correlation between health expenditure and survival probability on the demand for insurance abstract this paper studies the effects of health shocks on the demand for health insurance and annuities along with precautionary saving in a dynamic life cycle model i argue that when the health shock can simultaneously increase health expenses and reduce longevity rational agents would neither fully insure their uncertain health expenses nor fully annuitize their wealth because the correlation between health expenses and longevity provides a self insurance channel for both uncertainties that is when the agent is hit by a health shock which simultaneously increases health expenses and reduces longevity she can use the resources originally saved for consumption in the reduced period of life to pay for the increased health expenses since the two uncertainties partially offset each other the precautionary saving generated in the model should be smaller than in a standard model without the correlation between health expenses and longevity in a quantitative life cycle model calibrated using the medical expenditure panel survey dataset i find that the health expenses are highly correlated with the survival probabilities and this correlation significantly reduces the demand for actuarially fair health insurance while its impact on the demand for annuities and precautionary saving is relatively small

how uncertain is household income in china abstract this paper studies the stochastic processes of household income in china using longitudinal data from chns 1989 2009 we consider both labor income and total household income we find that i compared with the us households in psid income of the chinese households is much more uncertain ii compared with the 1990s degree of income uncertainty in the 2000s is substantially higher in china

the baby boom and baby bust what caused the baby boom and can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years the hypothesis is that a the secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children b the baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century this lowered the cost of having children a model is developed in an attempt to account quantitatively for both the baby boom and bust

the determinants of mortality mortality rates have fallen dramatically over time starting in a few countries in the 18th century and continuing to fall today in just the past century life expectancy has increased by over 30 years at the same time mortality rates remain much higher in poor countries with a difference in life expectancy between rich and poor countries of also about 30 years this difference persists despite the remarkable progress in health improvement in the last half century at least until the hiv aids pandemic in both the time series and the cross section data there is a strong correlation between income per capita and mortality rates a correlation that also exists within countries where richer better educated people live longer we review the determinants of these patterns over history over countries and across groups within countries while there is no consensus about the causal mechanisms we tentatively identify the application of scientific advance and technical progress some of which is induced by income and facilitated by education as the ultimate determinant of health such an explanation allows a consistent interpretation of the historical cross country and within country evidence we downplay direct causal mechanisms running from income to health

random earnings differences lifetime liquidity constraints and altruistic intergenerational transfers abstract this paper develops a model of private savings behavior in which households care about their descendants cannot have negative net worth and have lifetime earnings depending on random draws from an exogenous distribution of abilities the elements interact very lucky parents are likely to leave large estates constrained children are unusually likely to receive intergenerational transfers the paper proves the existence of a stationary cross sectional distribution of wealth endogenously determines where liquidity constraints will bind and shows that the long term interest rate must be such that ricardian neutrality fails its last section generates several illustrative numerical simulations

welfare effects of life annuities some clarifications abstract the present paper clarifies the intergenerational welfare effects of life annuities while present young cohorts experience significant welfare gains future generations are hurt by lower bequest for sufficiently high interest rates long run welfare will decrease although aggregate efficiency rises

effective tax rates in macroeconomics cross country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption abstract this paper proposes a method for computing tax rates using national accounts and revenue statistics using this method we construct time series of tax rates for large industrial countries the method identifies the revenue raised by different taxes at the general government level and defines aggregate measures of the corresponding tax bases this method yields estimates of effective tax rates on factor incomes and consumption consistent with the tax distortions faced by a representative agent in a general equilibrium framework these tax rates compare favorably with existing estimates of marginal tax rates and highlight important international differences in tax policy

a welfare analysis of social security in a dynastic framework in this article we study the welfare effects of unfunded social security in a general equilibrium model populated with overlapping generations of altruistic individuals that differ in lifetime expectancy and earnings ability contrary to previous research our results indicate that steady state welfare increases with social security for most households although by very different amounts this result is mainly due to two factors first the presence of two sided altruism significantly mitigates the crowding out effect of unfunded social security second ability shocks and uncertain lifetimes generate significant heterogeneity among households to yield different induced preferences for social security

medical care costs how much welfare loss hardly a week goes by without a front page newspaper article on rising health care costs and the uninsured in this article i focus mainly on costs arguing that the issue has been somewhat misconceived while the level of medical care spending in the u s is a cause for concern the welfare losses associated with rises in that level of spending may not be as large as the public rhetoric can make them seem in fact cost containment may not be as urgent as is widely supposed and some proposed cost containment policies may result in welfare losses for the insured and even increase the number of uninsured

household saving financial constraints and the current account in china in this article we present a model that can account for the changes in the current account balance in china since the 2000s our results suggest that inadequate insurance through government programs for the elderly and the decline in family insurance due to the one child policy led to large increases in the household saving rate these increases coupled with the financial frictions preventing the household saving from being invested in domestic firms resulted in large current account surpluses until 2008 relaxation of financial constraints on the other hand was responsible for the decline in the current account surplus after 2008

evaluating long term care policy options taking the family seriously we propose a dynamic non cooperative framework for long term care ltc decisions of families and use it to evaluate ltc policy options for the u s we first document the importance of informal caregiving and economic determinants of care arrangements we then build a heterogeneous agents model with imperfectly altruistic overlapping generations to account for the patterns we find a key innovation is the availability of informal care ic which is determined through intra family bargaining this opens up a new margin in response to policy and allows for informal insurance through home production of care our calibrated model captures the observed care arrangements well we study the implications of non means tested ic and formal care fc subsidies as well as changes to means tested medicaid we find that ic responds strongly to these policies an ic subsidy substantially reduces reliance on medicaid while the reduction of tax revenues due to lower labour supply by caregivers is modest there are large welfare gains from a combination of ic and fc subsidies even when combined with a reduction of the medicaid program

economic exchange during hyperinflation historical evidence indicates that hyperinflations can disrupt individuals normal trading patterns and impede the orderly functioning of markets to explore these issues we construct a theoretical model of hyperinflation that focuses on individuals and their process of economic exchange in our model buyers must carry cash while shopping and some transactions take place in a decentralized setting in which buyer and seller negotiate over the terms of trade of an indivisible good since buyers face the constant threat of incoming younger hence richer customers their bargaining position is weakened by inflation allowing sellers to extract a higher real price however we show that higher inflation also reduces buyers search increasing sellers wait for customers as a result the volume of transactions concluded in the decentralized sector falls at high enough rates of inflation all agents suffer a welfare loss

health insurance and the demand for medical care evidence from a randomized experiment we estimate how cost sharing the portion of the bill the patient pays affects the demand for medical services the data come from a randomized experiment a catastrophic insurance plan reduces expenditures 31 percent relative to zero out of pocket price the price elasticity is approximately 0 2 we reject the hypothesis that less favorable coverage of outpatient services increases total expenditure for example by deterring preventive care or inducing hospitalization

privatizing social security at home and abroad a century has passed since otto von bismarck instituted the first social security system in germany since then government provision of retirement income has spread around the globe alleviating poverty among the elderly providing life span insurance via old age annuities overcoming the samaritan s dilemma by forcing everyone to save and in many countries extending coverage to include old age health insurance but for all the good it has done social security is severely limiting world saving investment and growth it threatens to bankrupt the young and future generations of some of the world s leading nations see jagadeesh gokhale et al 1996 it is the chain letter pay as you go method of financing social security that lies at the heart of the problem taking income from young savers and giving it to old spenders while placating the young with promises of repayment not only reduces national saving but straddles the next generation with the obligation the debt to meet these promises the size of these debts and the burden on the next generation will be much greater for countries with rapidly aging populations would privatization solve social security s problems this paper provides a framework for thinking about this issue

information and the life cycle consumption of hazardous goods safety is a major area of public concern the fact that people take risky occupations smoke or fail to use seat belts often provokes a regulatory response designed to either protect people from the risks directly or to provide them with more information on the hazards involved such policy is often based on the view that risk taking behavior is irrational or ill advised this paper develops life cycle models of the decision to consume hazardous goods a particular focus of the analysis is to consider the rational response to information about hazards rational consumption of a hazardous good is shown to depend on such factors as the nature of the hazard age life expectancy age at which information on the hazard was received and of course the underlying value of the good itself

social security longevity and moral hazard abstract recently several authors have argued that social security can have positive effects on savings and welfare when individuals possess hidden information about their longevity that is when there is adverse selection in annuity markets this paper considers the related problem of the effects of social security when individuals can take hidden actions to affect their longevity that is when there is moral hazard in annuity markets in contrast to the adverse selection models we show that social security never raises welfare in a pure moral hazard economy as well social security may either increase or reduce longevity depending on the characteristics of the health related goods consumed it is suggested that a complete analysis of social security needs to consider both adverse selection and moral hazard

the rational nonpurchase of long term care insurance only a tiny fraction of the nonpoor population currently purchases private insurance coverage against long term care ltc costs studies generally attribute the failure to purchase private coverage to unawareness by potential purchasers of the benefits of coverage and a misperception that medicare currently covers long term care i explore alternative reasons for failure to purchase coverage by well informed expected utility maximizing risk averse individuals for whom ltc is associated with a large increase in mortality and for whom family members represent an alternative source of care there may be no demand for ltc insurance even if it is made available at actuarially fair premiums because the main consequence of coverage is to enhance the expected value of one s estate

saving and bequest in china an analysis of intergenerational exchange particularly high saving rates among the elderly in both rural and urban china call for an investigation of the involved bequest motive utilizing unique survey data from a diverse group of chinese households we document that the magnitude of the bequest from parent to child is associated with the level of personal assistance from child to parent moreover we find indicative evidence that both bequest and assistance are increasing in the parent s income and decreasing in the child s income comparing with the predictions from a stylized intergenerational model these findings are consistent with an exchange based bequest motive our findings have potential implications for how public policies and transfer schemes should be designed in order to contribute to the chinese government objective of increased private consumption our results are conditional on the inclusion of housing wealth as part of the bequest which indicates that transfer of housing is key to understanding the intergenerational assistance and bequest motives and subsequently the high saving levels among the elderly in china

the chinese saving rate long term care risks family insurance and demographics abstract a general equilibrium model that properly captures the risks in old age the role of family insurance changes in demographics and the productivity growth rate is capable of generating changes in the national saving rate in china that mimic the data well our findings suggest that the combination of the risks faced by the elderly and the deterioration of family insurance due to the one child policy may account for approximately half of the increase in the saving rate between 1980 and 2010 changes in the productivity growth rate account for the fluctuations in the saving rate during this period

non monotonic health behaviours implications for individual health related behaviour in a demand for health framework a number of behaviours influence health in a non monotonic way physical activity and alcohol consumption for instance may be beneficial to one s health in moderate but detrimental in large quantities we develop a demand for health framework that incorporates the feature of a physiologically optimal level an individual may still choose a physiologically non optimal level because of the trade off in his or her preferences for health versus other utility affecting commodities however any deviation above or below the physiologically optimal level will be punished with respect to health distinguishing between two individual types we study a the qualitative properties of optimal time paths of health capital and health related behaviour b the perturbations of the optimal time paths that result from changes in exogenous parameters and c steady state properties predictions of the model and the implications for empirical analysis are discussed at length some comments on potential future extensions conclude the paper

environmental regulations and the problem of sustainability moving beyond market failure abstract the standard metaphor of market failure is an impediment to the crafting of environmental policy that can escape policy lock in sustainability requires a policy process that can avoid this lock in sustainability concerns the creation of dynamic human processes that can respond to indeed anticipate unanticipated feedback from biological processes

social insurance private health insurance and individual welfare abstract this paper studies the impact of social insurance on individual choices and welfare in a dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertain medical expenses and individual health insurance choices i find that social insurance modeled as the combination of a minimum consumption floor and the medicaid program does not only distort saving and labor supply decisions but also has a large crowding out effect on the demand for private health insurance however despite the distorting effects the net welfare consequence of eliminating social insurance is still negative in most cases in addition the large crowding out effect on private health insurance suggests that the existence of social insurance programs may be one reason why some americans do not buy any health insurance

health spending and public pension evidence from panel data abstractthis article empirically investigates the determinants of aggregate health expenditure in a panel of oecd countries from 1980 to 2005 we differ from most existing studies by testing some new determinants motivated by recent theoretical advances in the literature we find that a one percentage increase in public pension payments per elderly person leads to approximately a one third percentage increase in aggregate health spending and this effect is significant and robust across a variety of model specifications a back of the envelope calculation based on this estimate suggests that the expansion of the public pension programme on average accounts for approximately over one fifth of the rise in aggregate health expenditure as a share of gdp in the set of oecd countries during 1980 2005 in addition we find that the estimated effect of gdp per capita in our model ranges from 0 66 to 0 80 which is consistent with the results from some recent studies and thus further reinforces the finding in the

the aggregate effects of health insurance evidence from the introduction of medicare this paper investigates the effects of market wide changes in health insurance by examining the single largest change in health insurance coverage in american history the introduction of medicare in 1965 i estimate that the impact of medicare on hospital spending is over six times larger than what the evidence from individual level changes in health insurance would have predicted this disproportionately larger effect may arise if market wide changes in demand alter the incentives of hospitals to incur the fixed costs of entering the market or of adopting new practice styles i present some evidence of these types of effects a back of the envelope calculation based on the estimated impact of medicare suggests that the overall spread of health insurance between 1950 and 1990 may be able to explain about half of the increase in real per capita health spending over this time period

agri environmental policies in the eu and united states a comparison abstract agri environmental policies aeps in the united states and the european union are examples of payments for environmental services that pay farmers to reduce the negative externalities of agricultural production while serving as a means to transfer public funds to farmers we show that despite similar origins aeps in the two regions differ both in their specific objectives and in their implementation for example aeps in most member states of the eu 15 have the additional objective of using agriculture as a driver for rural development this objective is achieved by compensating farmers for the private delivery of positive public goods such as attractive landscapes produced by agriculture the rationale is market failure and there is empirical evidence that europeans are willing to pay for such positive externalities no comparable provision exists in u s policy by contrast u s aeps focus almost entirely on reducing agriculture s negative externalities such as soil erosion second we find that u s programs are more targeted than their eu counterparts and take opportunity cost into account the eu programs on the other hand address a wider range of externalities and are focused more on the paying for a particular farming process than reducing specific negative externalities the eu takes a broader view of aeps than does the united states both in terms of type of activity that can be funded and by using less targeting by land characteristics and so the european program could be more easily used as a mechanism for transferring income to producers despite this we find evidence that many of the amenities targeted by the programs are demanded by the population

the fable of fisher body abstract general motors s gm s acquisition of fisher body is the classic example of market failure in the literature on contracts and the theory of the firm according to the standard account in 1926 gm merged vertically with fisher body a maker of auto bodies because of concerns over transaction specific investment and contractual holdup that account exhibits errors of historical fact and interpretation general motors acquired a 60 percent interest in fisher body in 1919 moreover the contractual arrangements and working relationship prior to the 1926 merger exhibited trust rather than opportunism fisher body s production technology did not exhibit asset specificity the merger reflected economic considerations specific to that time not some immutable market failure we demonstrate that vertical integration was directed at improving coordination of production and inventories assuring gm of adequate supplies of auto bodies and providing gm with access to the executive talents of the fisher bro

old age longevity and mortality contingent claims this paper analyzes the savings and longevity impacts of mortality contingent claims defined here as income measures such as annuities and life insurance under which earned income is contingent on the length of one s life the postwar increase in mandatory annuity and life insurance programs as well as the rapid increase in the life expectancy of older ages motivates a better understanding of the incentive effects that mortality contingent claims have on longevity related behavior we claim that these incentives in often alter the standard conclusions obtained about old age support when mortality is treated exogenously in particular we argue that annuities involve moral hazard effects that increase longevity and among other things introduce a positive interaction between public programs for health care and income support for the elderly programs that have grown enormously in developed countries

the value of life and the rise in health spending over the past half century americans spent a rising share of total economic resources on health and enjoyed substantially longer lives as a result debate on health policy often focuses on limiting the growth of health spending we investigate an issue central to this debate is the growth of health spending a rational response to changing economic conditions notably the growth of income per person we develop a model based on standard economic assumptions and argue that this is indeed the case standard preferences of the kind used widely in economics to study consumption asset pricing and labor supply imply that health spending is a superior good with an income elasticity well above one as people get richer and consumption rises the marginal utility of consumption falls rapidly spending on health to extend life allows individuals to purchase additional periods of utility the marginal utility of life extension does not decline as a result the optimal composition of total spending shifts toward health and the health share grows along with income in projections based on the quantitative analysis of our model the optimal health share of spending seems likely to exceed 30 percent by the middle of the century

creating holdup through vertical integration fisher body revisited abstract general motors s gm s 1926 acquisition of fisher body has long served as a cornerstone of hold up arguments for vertical integration this paper utilizes primary historical evidence to make three related claims first it shows that gm s initial investment in fisher body occurred primarily to gain access to the fisher brothers specialized human assets second it shows that holdup was not the cause of gm s purchase of fisher body instead the primary factors leading to vertical integration were gm management s fears over the fisher brothers impending departure coupled with problems of financing new body plants finally i show that while holdup was not an issue prior to integration the fisher brothers successfully held up gm after they became employees far from reducing opportunistic behavior vertical integration increased gm s vulnerability to rent seeking behavior based in human asset specificity

will farmers trade profits for stewardship heterogeneous motivations for farm practice selection we investigate the trade off agricultural producers face between profits and stewardly activities when selecting farm practices instead of the profit maximization framework we model producer behavior in an expanded utility framework built on production technology and including two utility components self and social interests the framework introduces inherent heterogeneity and social environmental motivations into farmer behavior based on this model we hypothesize that there are farmers that are willing to forego some profit to engage in stewardly farm practices with an empirical study we provide evidence that some farmers are willing to make this sacrifice results are consistent with the multi utility hypothesis

alcoholism work and income this article reports on an empirical analysis of the relationships between alcoholism and income and working we show that the relationships between alcoholism and labor market success have important age or life cycle dimensions we present evidence that alcoholism may affect income more by restricting labor market participation than by affecting the wages of workers finally we demonstrate that the effects of alcoholism on earnings depend on the extent to which one controls for other covariates associated with alcoholism as such we suggest that there may be important indirect as well as direct effects of alcoholism on labor market success

intergenerational risk sharing in the spirit of arrow debreu and rawls with applications to social security design this paper examines the optimal allocation of risk in an overlapping generations economy it compares the allocation of risk the economy reaches naturally to the allocation that would be reached if generations behind a rawlsian veil of ignorance could share risk with one another through complete arrow debreu contingent claims markets the paper then examines how the government might implement optimal intergenerational risk sharing with a social security system one conclusion is that the system must either hold equity claims to capital or negatively index benefits to equity returns

organizational economics in agriculture policy analysis the ongoing industrialization of u s agriculture encompasses important changes in farm production practices in the organization of farm input and output markets and in the mix of activities carried out by farm operators these shifts raise important issues for the role of government in the sector and for the design of research and data programs to support public policy analysis basic frameworks of organizational economics in particular concepts from principal agent models organizational design and transaction costs have direct applications in addressing these issues 1 while organizational economics has been used in some areas of policy analysis the concepts are underutilized in other areas industrialization encompasses four important organizational shifts to more differentiated food products to more explicitly coordinated production and marketing channels such as contracts to expanded use by farmers of leasing arrangements alliances and service purchases and to increased farm sizes these shifts are the most prominent organizational responses to an underlying collection of causal forces at play including the mechanical chemical and biological innovations that drove twentieth century advances in agricultural productivity as well as more recent information and biotechnology advances the forces underlying agricultural industrialization affect the design and impact of and support for various public policies in agriculture policy has long encompassed commodity programs designed to support farm household incomes and manage supplies market

social security and households saving this paper provides new evidence on the substitutability between private and pension wealth by exploiting the italian pension reform of 1992 we use a difference in difference estimator that exploits the differential effects of the reform on individuals belonging to several yea of birth cohorts and different occupational groups we find convincing evidence that saving rates increase as a result of a reduction in pension wealth by allowing for the possibility that substitutability changes with age we find that substitutability is particularly high and precisely estimated for workers between 35 and 45

uncertain lifetime consumption and dissaving in retirement this paper asks whether the continued accumulation or mild dissaving observed among the retired can be explained by uncertain lifetime in the absence of annuities after an initial period influenced by borrowing constraints under constant relative risk aversion uncertain lifetime depresses consumption by a proportion increasing with age if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is small illustrative computations based on actual income and survival data show that plausible elasticities are sufficiently small to give this effect the reduction in consumption is large enough to explain much of the lack of decumulation by the elderly

the trend in retirement a model with leisure production and endogenous retirement is used to explain declining labor force participation rates of elderly males the model is calibrated to cross sectional data on labor force participation rates of u s males by age their drop in consumption and leisure good expenditure share in 2000 running the calibrated model for the period 1850 2000 a prediction of the evolution of the cross section is obtained the model accounts for more than 87 of the increase in retirement of men over 65 the increase in retirement is driven by rising wages and falling prices of leisure goods

consumption smoothing and portfolio rebalancing the effects of adjustment costs abstract a household s response to income and return shocks depends on the costs of portfolio adjustment in particular the extent of portfolio rebalancing and consumption smoothing are influenced by the presence of non convex portfolio adjustment costs suppose bonds can be adjusted costlessly while adjustments to stock accounts entail adjustment costs due to these portfolio adjustment costs the household demands both stocks and bonds a household can buffer some income fluctuations without incurring adjustment costs and engage in costly portfolio rebalancing less frequently using the estimated preference parameters and portfolio adjustment costs the response to income and return shocks is nonlinear and reflects the interaction of portfolio rebalancing and consumption smoothing

aging and health financing in the u s a general equilibrium analysis abstract we quantify the effects of population aging on the u s healthcare system our analysis is based on a stochastic general equilibrium overlapping generations model of endogenous health accumulation calibrated to match pre 2010 u s data we find that population aging not only leads to large increases in medical spending but also a large shift in the relative size of private vs public insurance without the affordable care act aca aging by itself leads to a 40 increase in health expenditures by 2060 and a 9 6 increase in gdp which is mainly driven by the increase of the fraction of older higher risk individuals in the economy as well as behavioral responses to aging and the subsequent expansion of the healthcare sector aging increases the premium in group based health insurance ghi markets and enrollment in ghi decreases while the individual based health insurance ihi market medicaid and medicare expand significantly the size of medicare will almost double by 2060 as the elderly dependency ratio increases additional funds equivalent to roughly 2 7 of gdp are required to finance medicare and medicaid the introduction of the aca increases the fraction of insured workers to almost 100 by 2060 compared to 82 without the aca this increase is driven by the stabilization of ghi markets and the further expansions of medicaid and the ihi market the aca mitigates the increase of healthcare costs by reducing the number of the uninsured who pay the highest market price for healthcare services overall the aca adds to the fiscal cost of population aging mainly via the medicaid expansion our findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for behavioral responses structural changes in the healthcare sector and general equilibrium adjustments when assessing the economy wide effects of aging