habits costly investment and current account dynamics abstract we analyze the current account dynamics for a small country model with habit forming consumers and costly investment the model has several empirical and policy implications i it is consistent with stylized facts regarding the effects of productivity shocks and increases in fiscal spending and regarding the savings investment co movement ii the long run effect of a temporary shock on net foreign assets is often opposite to that of a permanent shock iii under strong habit persistence the welfare dynamics are sluggish so that a beneficial tax financed fiscal policy may have a harmful hangover effect on welfare

labor productivity and the law of decreasing labor content this paper analyzes labor productivity and the law of decreasing labor content ldlc originally formulated by farjoun and machover 1983 first it is shown that the standard measures of labor productivity may be rather misleading owing to their emphasis on monetary aggregates instead the conventional classical marxian labor values provide the theoretically and empirically sound measures of labor productivity the notion of labor content and the ldlc are therefore central in order to understand the dynamics of capitalist economies second some rigorous theoretical relations between different forms of proflt driven technical change and productivity are derived in a general input output framework with flxed capital which provide deterministic foundations to the ldlc third the main theoretical propositions are analyzed empirically based on a new dataset of the german economy

habit formation in children evidence from incentives for healthy eating we present findings from a field experiment conducted at 40 elementary schools involving 8000 children and 400 000 child day observations which tested whether providing short run incentives can create habit formation in children over a 3 or 5 week period students received an incentive for eating a serving of fruits or vegetables during lunch relative to an average baseline rate of 39 providing small incentives doubled the fraction of children eating at least one serving of fruits or vegetables two months after the end of the intervention the consumption rate at schools remained 21 above baseline for the 3 week treatment and 44 above baseline for the 5 week treatment these findings indicate that short run incentives can produce changes in behavior that persist after incentives are removed

private values of risk tradeoffs at superfund sites housing market evidence on learning about risk this paper incorporates a bayesian learning model into a hedonic framework to estimate the value that residents place on avoiding cancer risks from hazardous waste sites we show that residents are

habit formation from correlation aversion making plans about how much to consume and how much to invest in risky assets over an uncertain lifetime is a fundamental economic challenge the leading models of this planning problem use either additive or habit forming preferences for the most part these models assume an individual is either correlation neutral or correlation seeking in consumption respectively in this paper we introduce two habit forming correlation averse preference models with these preferences we find closed form solutions to the classic consumption and portfolio planning problem our solutions recommend that a correlation averse decision maker follow a habit in their consumption plans while such habits traditionally have been associated with correlation seeking preferences our model leads to consumption habits from correlation averse preferences

the hidden persuaders institutions and individuals in economic theory in his classic book the hidden persuaders vance packard claimed that large corporations manipulated consumers using advertising techniques john kenneth galbraith and others have repeated a similar view against this gary becker and george stigler have claimed that advertising is essentially informative rather than manipulative in contrast it is argued here that both of these opposed accounts of human agency neglect the more subtle and undesigned processes by which institutions bear upon and mould individuals this paper proposes a concept of reconstitutive downward causation in which institutions act upon individual habits and dispositions the mechanisms involved do not fall foul of past critiques of holism or methodological collectivism this argument involves a rehabilitation of the concept of habit in social science with far reaching implications

welfare implications of the interaction between habits and consumption externalities we analyze the welfare properties of the equilibrium path of a growth model where both habits and consumption externalities affect the utility of consumers our analysis highlights the crucial role played by complementarities between externalities and habits in order to generate an infficient dynamic equilibrium in particular we show that the competitive equilibrium is inefficient when consumption externalities and habit adjusted consumption are not perfect substitutes

evaluating income streams a decision analysis approach most important decision problems virtually all capital investiments and planning situations involve risky cash flows with uncertainties that are resolved over time in most of these problems the decision maker has access to financial markets and may borrow and lend to smooth consumption over time yet because of the difficulty of incorporating these borrowing and lending decisions into the evaluation models these opportunities are rarely explicitly modeled in decision and risk analyses of these investments in this paper we study the errors induced by failing to account for these borrowing and lending decisions and we develop extensions to the standard decision and risk analysis procedures that given certain market and preference assumptions take these borrowing and lending opportunities into account without overburdening the evaluation models

agency relationships in family firms theory and evidence does owner management necessarily eliminate the agency costs of ownership drawing on agency literature and on the economic theory of the household we argue that private ownership and owner management expose privately held owner managed firms to agency threats ignored by jensen s and meckling s 1976 agency model private ownership and owner management not only reduce the effectiveness of external control mechanisms they also expose firms to a self control problem created by incentives that cause owners to take actions which harm themselves as well as those around them jensen 1994 p 43 thus shareholders have incentive to invest resources in curbing both managerialand owner opportunism we extend this thesis to the domain of the family firm after developing hypotheses which describe how family dynamics and specifically altruism exacerbate agency problems experienced by these privately held owner managed firms we use data obtained from a large scale survey of family businesses to field test our hypotheses and find evidence which suggests support for our proposed theory finally we discuss the implications of our theory for research on family and other types of privately held owner managed firms

testing for forward looking behaviour evidence from the enactment of smoking restrictions abstractthis paper develops a new test for forward looking behaviour based on the establishment of public smoking restrictions given that the announcement of these restrictions effectively increases the future cost of smoking we should expect forward looking smokers to curb their consumption before the restriction is effective due to complementarity between present and future consumption i perform the estimation using detailed high frequency household level purchase data the results provide evidence against the forward looking behaviour of smokers households do not reduce their cigarette purchases before announced public smoking restrictions are established they only do so once the restriction is in effect

a double hurdle approach to modelling tobacco consumption in italy this article analyzes the determinants of tobacco expenditures for a sample of italian households a box cox double hurdle model adjusted for heteroscedasticity is estimated to account for separate individual decisions concerning smoking participation and tobacco consumption and to correct for nonnormality in the bivariate distribution of the error terms nested univariate and bivariate models are found to be excessively restrictive supporting the adequacy of a generalized specification estimation results show that consumption decisions are significantly affected by income and demographic characteristics in particular income positively impacts tobacco expenditure while participation probability substantially declines as age increases the existence of significant gender differences in both smoking participation and tobacco consumption patterns is found while high education and white collar occupation reduces the likelihood to smoke and tobacco expenditure levels single adult households have a lower

is status quo bias consistent with downward sloping demand by now there is a large experimental literature showing some kind of status quo bias 1 if the subject is given a coffee mug candy bar and later given the possibility of trading it for a candy bar coffee mug of equal value the subject is likely to stick with the original allocation knetsch 1989 here we ask whether status quo bias can be made consistent with downward sloping demand curves this paper thus differs in intent from a large body of research that incorporates a different notion of status quo bias into a more general formulation of revealed preference e g masatlioglu and ok 2005 sagi 2006 such research demonstrates that there are different sets of primitives that lead to different axioms of revealed preference in this paper we do not care which set of primitives holds or whether such results can be incorporated into the neoclassical model of consumer behavior as munro and sugden 2003 have done 2 instead we undertake a strict behavioralist approach individuals display status quo bias and downward sloping demand curves whether such behavior can be derived from a consistent set of assumptions is irrelevant to our purpose indeed we do not require the existence of a preference relation that rationalizes choices at all all that is required is choice behavior what we want to find out is the implications of such observed behavior in particular we want to determine whether status quo bias and downward sloping demand curves are consistent with each other the short answer is yes but the consumer will display addictive behavior 3 the remainder of the paper will be devoted to demonstrating this result we will make the following set of assumptions ai there are two goods x candy and y wine which are continuously divisible a2 prices and incomes are exogenously determined that is the person has a budget line and budget set a3 the individual chooses a point on the budget line a4 strictly downward sloping demand if the person chooses x sub t y sub t for a given budget set b sub t and then the person is faced with a different budget set b sub t l that goes through x sub t y sub t but where the relative price of x has gone down up then x sub t 1 x sub t and y sub t 1 y sub t 4 i an intuitive example before proceeding with the formal exposition it is useful to consider the intuition behind the argument to make the logic as accessible as possible in the intuitive example i will assume that individuals have indifference curves and that these indifference curves are homothetic before the subjects come to the experiment they made choices based on their individual budget sets and preferences the budget sets of these various individuals have the same slope the market prices facing the individuals are the same but the richer individuals have budget sets that are farther out if individuals have status quo bias then each individual s choice is based on his her budget set and his her unique set of indifference curves which in turn are based on the reference point established by the individual s experiences and history while we can use any time period for the analysis let us suppose here that the time period of analysis is daily so that before and after the experiment individuals decide each day how much candy and wine to choose the experimenter divides the subjects into three groups in the first group the experimenter gives the subjects 10 and then each subject gets to choose either candy or wine or some combination in between knetsch actually did this with candy and coffee cups and found that the subjects split evenly between the two choices in the second group the subjects are given 10 worth of candy and then later are allowed to trade in some or all of the candy for the equivalent value of wine

tax incidence when individuals are time inconsistent the case of cigarette excise taxes abstract one of the most cogent criticisms of excise taxes is their regressivity with lower income groups spending a much larger share of their income on goods such as cigarettes than do higher income groups we argue that traditional quantity based measures of incidence are only appropriate under a very restrictive time consistent model of consumption of sin goods a model that is much more consistent with existing evidence on smoking decisions is a time inconsistent formulation where excise taxes on cigarettes serve a self control function that is valued by smokers who would like to quit but cannot this self control function benefits lower income groups more since they have a significantly higher price sensitivity of smoking calibrations show that as a result cigarette taxes are much less regressive than previously assumed and are even progressive for a wide variety of parameter values

aggregate cigarette demand and regional differences in china national educational level final consumption expenditure average propensity to cigarette consumption apcc and cigarette price are adopted to research the regional and national aggregate cigarette demand of china under the condition that the effects of anti smoking education in the chinese current educational system are not remarkable the theoretical model shows that cigarette demand will increase with the increase of national educational level empirical analysis points out that cigarette demand increases with the increase of educational level estimates also suggest that cigarette price consumption expenditure and apcc will affect cigarette demand significantly and that there are great differences for cigarette demand by region

smoking cessation a model of planned vs actual behavior for time inconsistent consumers we offer a simple model of intertemporal choice to characterize how planned versus actual behaviors evolve for time inconsistent smokers our results suggest that smokers participation and cessation decisions are governed by the interplay between three effects the cessation effect leads smokers to advance their plans to quit smoking whereas the procrastination effect leads them to consecutively revise their planned quitting age upwards consequently the duration of smoking is effectively governed by which one of these two effects is dominant finally for certain consumer segments a threshold effect causes an all or nothing type of extreme smoking behavior based on certain critical values of present biased preferences our results provide some preliminary evidence that both marketing efforts by tobacco firms and public policy initiatives can have a significant influence on smoking behavior in particular we find that reductions in the age at which individuals start smoking may not only vastly extend their duration of smoking but also convert potential never smokers into lifetime smokers finally we estimate a hazard model using survey data from over 800 smokers to provide evidence in support of our theoretical model

information shocks and cigarette addiction views from dynamic panels with common structural changes in this article we attempt to evaluate the impact of various information shocks on cigarette consumption in contrast to the existing studies we do not impose any break points a priori we use recently developed techniques for sample splitting in the data on us cigarette demand and find that using a time index as a transition variable can cluster cigarette demand into four distinct regimes in the past four decades a myopic to rational switch in cigarette consumption behaviour was observed in response to various anti smoking information events in particular we find strong evidence in support of the rational addiction model in the 1980s and 1990s moreover in line with the theoretical prediction our estimate of the long run elasticity is twice as large as the short run elasticity our empirical framework should improve policy makers understanding of the dynamics of cigarette consumption in response to various anti smoking campaigns and stress the role of sound policy making in improving smoking con

economic factors affecting the increase in obesity in the united states differential response to price abstract a sharp increase in obesity during the last 15 years in the united states became one of the nation s main public health problems the theory of rational addiction seems to explain human behavior in food consumption leading to obesity reasonably well the interesting thing about our results is that the tax policy normally used to correct various distortions is to serve in this case as the preventive policy additional taxes on future prices of the addictive sweet foods contribute to lower sugar consumption and bmi at present time on the other hand increasing education level is usually considered a preventive type of policy in this case it leads to lowering the levels of the bmi in already overweight and obese population

economic conditions and alcohol problems this study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and two alcohol related outcomes liquor consumption and highway vehicle fatalities fixed effect models are estimated for the 48 contiguous states over the 1975 1988 time period alcohol consumption and traffic deaths vary procyclically with a major portion of the effect of economic downturns attributed to reductions in incomes rather than employment the intake of hard liquor is the most sensitive to the state of the macroeconomy there is no evidence however that fluctuations in economic conditions have a disproportionate impact on the drunk driving of young adults

sraffa labor theories of value and the economics of real wage rate determination the labor theory of value and the question of whether or not a real wage rate versus profit rate trade off exists have been topics debated since the times of ricardo and marx more recently these topics have been investigated using sraffa s standard commodity approach it is argued here that such approaches are basically flawed however it also is shown that there are situations consistent with perfect competition for which negatively sloped real wage rate versus profit or interest rate trade offs do exist thus despite perfect competition genuine bargaining situations may arise between workers and owners of the capitalistic means of production

consumer habituation this paper examines how consumers willingness to pay for goods is determined by past patterns of consumption the central result is atheorem of interior maximum which states that willingness to pay for a good is maximized at a moderate level of habitual consumption the theorem is derived from a simple model of adaptive behavior that involves a shifting s shaped value function the detailed analysis of the impact of consumption frequency and intensity on willingness to pay reveals an unsuspected implication of diminishing sensitivity even as it leads to a formalization of consumer habituation patterns including sensitization habituation and response recovery upon withdrawal that matches and integrates the most robust empirical regularities attendant on nonassociative learning in neurobiology and behavioral psychology an examination of the implications for demand dynamics and pricing highlights deterministic recurrent and transient patterns of consumption at higher price points

can expected utility theory explain gambling we investigate the ability of expected utility theory to account for simultaneous gambling and insurance contrary to a previous claim that borrowing and lending in perfect capital markets rules out a demand for gambles we show that expected utility theory with non concave utility functions can still explain gambling when the rates of interest and time preference are equal agents will seek to gamble unless income falls in a finite set of exceptional values when these rates differ there will be a range of incomes for which gambles are desired in both cases repeated gambling is not explained but market imperfections such as different borrowing and lending rates can account for persistent gambling provided the rates span the rate of time preference

taxation or regulation looking for a good anti smoking policy abstract this paper investigates the relative ability of two anti smoking policies taxes and regulation in inducing reductions in cigarette consumption and in providing incentives to stop smoking or not to start to our results based on canadian data show that cigarette demand responds to taxes elasticity of 0 28 but not to regulation while the converse is true for the proportion of smokers in the population

waves in consumption with interdependence among consumers this paper presents a model to analyze the development of consumption patterns when there are social interactions among consumers in particular a consumer in this model recognizes three reference groups a peer group of similar consumers with whom the consumer wishes to share consumption activities a distinction group from which the consumer wishes to distinguish him or herself and an aspiration group to which the consumer does not belong but wishes that he she did and with whom the consumer would like to share consumption activities the interplay of aspiration and distinction can lead to waves in consumption these can happen when for example the avant garde consumption of up market pioneers is copied by other types of consumer as the latter aspire to emulate the former the former in turn seek to distinguish themselves from these unwelcome companions by varying their consumption in consequence a particular consumption activity may start up market an then gradually proceed down the social spectrum more complex patterns with continuing cycles in consumption can also be found the paper argues that this model is not only applicable to the consumption behaviour of an elite or would be elite but is relevant in a wide range of consumption settings

to be consumed with moderation abstract we study the optimal behavior of a hyperbolic discounting agent who has incomplete information about his own preferences and can only learn them through consumption we show that even if moderate current consumption and moderate future consumption always dominates abstinence the agent may optimally decide not to consume as a commitment device against inefficient learning that would lead to future excesses this provides a rationale for why smokers gamblers or compulsive buyers stick to second best personal rules of behavior such as abstinence without invoking standard habit formation arguments we also study how urges modify the strategy of the individual

habit formation and demand for sugar sweetened beverages using scanner data we estimated demand for nine nonalcoholic beverages under habit formation we found strong evidence for habit formation although demand for sugar sweetened beverages by low income households is less elastic to own price changes compared with high income households there is evidence that high income households consider beverages to be more substitutable than low income households do a half cent per ounce tax on store purchased sugar sweetened beverages will result in a moderate reduction in consumption of sugar sweetened beverages for both income strata because of habit formation long run national tax revenue from a sugar sweetened beverage tax is about 15 to 20 lower than short run revenue

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

price knowledge in household demand for utility services a household s decision to acquire price knowledge is endogenous in the demand for utility services and may affect elasticities and consumption levels a simultaneous equation model with endogenous switching is developed to evaluate the effects of price knowledge and other sources of heterogeneity results indicate informed households were more responsive to average and marginal price signals informed households also use less water but this is due to heterogeneity rather than price knowledge controlling for heterogeneity price knowledge actually increases monthly water usage the implications of accounting for differences in price knowledge in utility demand modeling and demand management policy are discussed

economic methodology in a nutshell he literature on economic methodology is concerned mainly with questions of theory confirmation or disconfirmation or empirical theory choice the central question is usually how one can tell whether a particular bit of economics is good science economists would like methodologists to provide the algorithm for doing good economic science and they want the algorithm to vindicate their own practice and to reveal the foolishness of those who do economics differently for example milton friedman 1953 tells economists that good theories are those that provide correct and useful predictions while paul samuelson 1947 1963 tells economists to formulate theories with operational concepts that are ideally logically equivalent to their descriptive consequences in my view not only are these and most other specific views on theory appraisal mistaken but the concern with problems of empirical appraisal is exaggerated for there are also interesting methodological questions to consider both normative and descriptive concerning the structure strategy goals and heuristics of various economic theories for example few writers on economic methodology recognize that the activities of formulating economic models and investigating their implications are a sort of conceptual exploration instead most mistakenly regard these activities as offering empirical hypotheses and assess them in terms of some philosophical model of confirmation or falsification as a tendentious survey of standard methodological literature this essay will however share its preoccupation with the empirical appraisal of theory microeconomic theory in particular i shall in particular discuss four approaches to praising or damning microeconomic theory that have dominated methodological discussions

actual labor values in a general model of production in contrast to counterfactual linear programming definitions of labor values this chapter introduces an at least equivalent definition of such values for the general case of joint production which is exclusively based on actual data this task is accomplished by extending marx s concept of individual values from multiple activities to joint production by means of certain price ratios at those points where production data are insufficient to ensure the positiveness of embodied labor time our approach generalizes the simple formula that relates labor values to monetary input output tables and it reformulates the labor theory of value in such a way that the theoretical priority of the case of a uniform composition of capital is reaffirmed in the concluding pages of his book marx s economics it is suggested by morishima that marxian economists ought radically to change their attitude towards the labor theory of value since in general the value system of the methods of production actually adopted in a capitalistic economy may be determined to be negative indefinite or even contradictory to the postulate of the uniform rate of exploitation morishima 1973 p 193 he then continues by proposing that optimal labor values the shadow prices of certain linear programming problems which minimize the amount of labor needed to produce given bundles of net output should take the place of actual labor values when production models of a more general kind than the simple leontief model are to be considered an interpretation of labor values which has been worked out in detail in morishima 1974 and has become a widely accepted approach to labor values and the labor theory of value for all types of multiple production systems

the economic functioning of online drugs markets abstract the economic functioning of online drug markets using data scraped from online platforms is studied analysis of over 1 5 million online drugs sales shows online drugs markets tend to function without the significant moral hazard problems that a priori one might think would plague them only a small proportion of online drugs deals receive bad ratings from buyers and online markets suffer less from problems of adulteration and low quality that are a common feature of street sales of illegal drugs furthermore as with legal online markets the market penalizes bad ratings which subsequently lead to significant sales reductions and to market exit the impact of the well known seizure by law enforcement of the original silk road and the shutdown of silk road 2 0 are also studied together with the exit scam of the market leader at the time evolution there is no evidence that these exits deterred buyers or sellers from online drugs trading as new platforms rapidly replaced those taken down with the online market for drugs continuing to grow

are wages habit forming evidence from micro data although utility functions play a central role in economics the axiom that utility depends only on the absolute levels of its arguments is rarely tested this paper uses panel data on 2000 british employees who remain with the same employer and who are not promoted from one wave to the next it is shown that one important measure of well being overall job satisfaction is strongly positively correlated with the change in the worker s pay between waves but is unrelated to the current level of pay empirical tests suggest that a reference dependent satisfaction function where individual well being depends on current pay relative to past pay is more consistent with these regression results than are productivity or agency explanations of increasing wage profiles some evidence is presented of greater job satisfaction effects of pay rises for lower paid less well educated and younger workers these results provide some micro evidence consistent with the theory widespread in social science of habituation individuals may become used to any given level of consumption or income as such they tie in with the finding that a country s well being as measured by the average happiness of its citizens is only weakly correlated with its per capita gnp

rational exuberance at the mall addiction to carrying a credit card balance the becker murphy model of rational addiction is tested with new zealand credit card debt data the results clearly favour the rational addiction model over the myopic backward looking model the estimated short run and long run price elasticities are 0 58 and 2 32 respectively and the estimated rate of time preference is 6 7 per quarter

juvenile crime and punishment evidence from japan over the last decade juvenile crime has become a serious social problem in japan the juvenile law was revised in 2001 to impose harsher punishment on juvenile offenders this revision makes it possible to impose criminal punishment on 14 and 15 year old criminal offenders while those offenders aged 16 19 have always faced criminal punishment both before and after the revision using this revision as a natural experiment this study conducts a difference in differences estimation to examine the effect of punishment on juvenile crime the analysis provides evidence that punishment can deter juvenile crime in addition this research examines the criminal behaviour of 13 year olds who face no change in punishment but who soon will in the near future the results suggest that the revision also had a negative impact on the criminal behaviour of these younger offenders

one million miles to go taking the axiomatic road to defining exploitation this paper analyses the marxian theory of exploitation a general axiomatic approach is developed which is appropriate to study the concept of exploitation what it is and how it should be captured empirically two properties are presented that capture some fundamental marxian insights it is shown that contrary to the received view there exists a nonempty class of definitions of exploitation that preserve the relation between exploitation and profits called profitexploitation correspondence principle in general economies with heterogeneous agents complex class structures and production technologies with heterogeneous labour inputs however among the main approaches only the so called new interpretation satisfies the profitexploitation correspondence principle in general jel b51

expo power utility a flexible form for absolute and relative risk aversion a new utility function which i call expo power is proposed that exhibits decreasing constant or increasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing or increasing relative risk aversion depending on parameter values numerical analysis suggests that the expo power function performs well in incorporating these risk preference structures and that arbitrary risk preference specifications may lead to biased risk response estimates

a cue theory of consumption psychological experiments demonstrate that repeated pairings of a cue and a consumption good eventually create cue based complementarities the presence of the cue raises the marginal utility derived from consumption in this paper such dynamic preferences are embedded in a rational choice model behavior that arises from this model is characterized by endogenous cue sensitivities costly cue management commitment and cue based spikes in impatience the model is used to understand addictive habit forming behaviors and marketing the model explains why preferences change rapidly from moment to moment why temptations should sometimes be avoided and how firms package and position goods

valuing risky projects option pricing theory and decision analysis in the academic literature and professional practice there are a number of alternative and apparently competing methods for valuing risky projects in this paper we compare and contrast three different approaches risk adjusted discount rate analysis option pricing analysis and decision analysis focusing on the last two we show that in contrast to some of the claims made in the real options literature when both option pricing and decision analysis methods are correctly applied they must give consistent results we also explore ways in which option pricing and decision analysis methods can be profitably integrated in particular we show how option pricing techniques can be used to simplify decision analysis when some risks can be hedged by trading and conversely how decision analysis techniques can be used to extend option pricing techniques to problems with incomplete securities markets

motives for private transfers over the life cycle an analytical framework and evidence for peru abstract this paper tests for the motives for private income transfers we consider two motives altruism and exchange the question of private transfer motives is important because such motivation can influence the effects of public income transfers on the distribution of income using a household survey for peru we find that transfer amounts received increase with recipient pre transfer income which contradicts a key prediction of the strong form of the altruism hypothesis but is consistent with exchange we also find that capital market imperfections are likely to be an important cause of private transfers and that social security benefits crowd out the incidence of private transfers

life cycle consumption of a harmful and addictive good david goldbaum this article demonstrates that the endogenous desire to quit smoking can result from a rational consumption path chosen at the time the consumer begins smoking this result is obtained without relying on hidden costs or unknown preferences a finite lived agent chooses a path of consumption of a harmful and addictive good to maximize present discounted utility the consumer chooses his consumption rate to account for the future health consequence of smoking and the withdrawal costs of quitting a consumer may choose to smoke even if it means a lowered utility level for the majority of the time spent smoking jel d91 c61 i12 i introduction some of what we consume for pleasure can be harmful economists assume that consumers take measure of the potential harm and balance it against the pleasure derived from consumption when both the pleasure and the harm occur at the time of consumption the decision is straightforward some goods though impose a cost borne at some future date requiring intertemporal planning these present a greater challenge to the consumer and to the economist trying to explain the consumer s behavior at times observed behavior implores us to question whether the consumer is properly weighing the costs and benefits in a manner that maximizes his or her utility theoretically for each item under consideration the rational consumer properly balances the lifetime benefits derived from the consumption against the lifetime costs some observed behavior seems to contradict this rational approach to consumption in particular it is common for people to begin smoking cigarettes during their youth only to endogenously make a decision to quit at a future date to integrate this behavior with rationality modelers have proposed hidden costs multiple selves changing preferences or other strategies that limit the decision making ability of the youth in all of these cases for some consumers the decision to smoke is a mistake made during youth that has to be reversed at some cost as a middle aged adult this article aims to demonstrate that a lifetime path of consumption in which a person consumes a harmful and addictive good while young and quits at some later date is a path that is perfectly consistent with rational behavior it is not necessary to assume that mid life quitters are displaying irrational or time inconsistent behavior if all information regarding a good s harmful properties is revealed some consumers will still choose a path that requires quitting mid life this paper primarily examines the consumption of cigarettes but also includes analysis of a nonaddictive unhealthy good both of these harmful goods provide the consumer with immediate pleasure but at the cost of decreasing life expectancy background becker and murphy 1988 bm introduced the concept of rational addiction the idea that addicts are forward looking rational consumers present consumption choices reflect not only current utility considerations and budget constraints but also incorporate the anticipated impact of present consumption on future utility and budget constraints bm examine the behavior response of addicts to exogenous shocks changes from a steady state including the desire to quit originate only from exogenous shocks such as a change in the relative price of the good or a revelation about the detrimental health consequences of the addictive good that alters the consumer s utility derived from consumption the model offers no mechanism by which smokers may choose to alter behavior endogenously in contrast to bm s smokers many of today s smokers appear to quit in absence of an external shock anyone who began smoking after 1966 has been subjected to the legislated health warnings appearing on cigarette packages since that time 1 antismoking messages in radio and television advertisements during the 1950s and 1960s also helped to make the health consequences of smoking common knowledge

critical issues suggested by trends in food population and the environment to the year 2020 this article reviews the emerging trends in global food supply and demand up to 2020 and discusses policy challenges and obstacles to meeting this demand data were obtained from the international food policy research institutes international model for policy analysis of commodities and trade rosegrant et al the country specific data pertains to 37 countries and regions and 17 food commodities and prices in the world market cereal prices are expected to decline by about 11 by 2020 meat prices may decline by 6 after 2010 cereal prices are expected to dramatically decline cereal demand will change with changes in income and urbanization maize and coarse grains will be replaced by wheat and rice life style changes may lead to a switch from rice to wheat growth in food consumption in developed countries will slow a projected 82 of growth in global cereal consumption and almost 90 of increased global meat demand will occur in developing countries during 1993 2020 asia alone will account for 48 of increased cereal consumption and 61 of increased meat consumption 88 of food production growth will occur in developing countries through increased yields and 94 in developed countries world trade in cereals will increase from an estimated 185 million metric tons annually to 328 million during 1993 2020 food security for the poor and child malnutrition will remain unimproved yield growth is affected by agricultural research fertilizer and energy use land degradation water scarcity and bad policy water scarcity is the most limiting on yield growth malnutrition problems present multiple challenges

a nearly global look at the dynamics of youth smoking initiation and cessation the role of cigarette prices this study investigates the role of cigarette prices on smoking initiation and cessation among youth in a sample of eight primarily non western low middle and high income countries with a particular focus on a subsample of 40 low and middle income countries lmics using split population duration models on longitudinally transformed individual data from the global youth tobacco survey gyts the average impact of cigarette prices in the presence of unobserved country heterogeneity and shifting cultural norms within countries is identified by the variation of cigarette prices within countries over time price increases are found to effectively reduce initiation in early youth and girls are considerably more responsive than boys the price elasticity of initiation in lmics is 0 82 for the combined gender analysis 0 46 for boys only and 1 5 for girls only there is some indication that youths in developing countries may be slightly less responsive to price changes than in high income countries no

rational habits in gasoline demand abstract the dynamics of demand for energy goods such as gasoline are complicated by investment decisions and behavioral habits both types of complication can be captured by a habits model in which past consumption enters into an agent s current utility function if the agent is forward looking or rational then habits imply his consumption of the habit forming good will be sensitive to his expectation of future market conditions in particular future prices this sensitivity implies in turn that traditional measures of price elasticity will underproject consumers responsiveness to policy interventions this paper examines the implications of rational habits on gasoline demand using a simple model encompassing myopic and rational habits i demonstrate that an agent with rational habits will respond to anticipated future price changes and react more strongly to permanent than to temporary price changes with this distinction increasing in the strength of the habit i then estimate several habits models using panel data on u s states for the years 1989 through 2008 my preferred specification yields evidence of rational habits and moreover i find consumers to be twice as responsive to tax driven price changes as to market driven price changes taxes and other policies that operate through the gasoline price are a more powerful policy instrument than traditional price elasticity would lead us to believe

the economics of consumer knowledge while approaches to measuring the state of a consumer s knowledge are well developed much less is known about the relationship between knowledge and consumer choice and information search the purpose of this article is to explore these relationships by treating consumer knowledge as human capital which affects the full price of consumption and search activities using this framework models are presented to explain life cycle consumption patterns lifestyles brand loyalty choice of features and search behavior this economic perspective is compared and contrasted to other consumer research on these topics including recent qualitative research that examines consumption behavior

the extent of the market and stages of agricultural specialization this paper provides empirical evidence of nonlinearity in the relationship between crop specialization in a village economy and the extent of the market size of the urban market relevant for the village the results suggest that the portfolio of crops in a village economy becomes more diversified initially as the extent of the market increases however after the market size reaches a threshold the production structure becomes specialized again this evidence on the stages of agricultural diversification is consistent with the stages of diversification identified in the recent literature for the economy as a whole and also for the manufacturing sector the evidence highlights the importance of improving farmers access to markets through investment in transport infrastructure and removal of barriers to trading

valuing the impact of trade on local blue water international trade of agricultural goods impacts local water scarcity by quantifying the effect of trade on crop production on grid cell level and combining it with cell and crop specific virtual water contents we are able to determine green and blue water consumption and savings connecting the information on trade related blue water usage to water shadow prices gives us the possibility to value the impact of international food crop trade on local blue water resources to determine the trade related value of the blue water usage we employ two models first an economic land and water use model simulating agricultural trade production and water shadow prices and second a global vegetation and agricultural model modeling the blue and green virtual water content of the traded crops our study found that globally the international trade of food crops saves blue water worth 2 4 billion us this net saving occurs despite the fact that europe exports virtual blue water in food crops worth 3 1 billion us countries in the middle east and south asia profit from trade by importing water intensive crops countries in southern europe on the other hand export water intensive agricultural goods from water scarce sites deteriorating local water scarcity

the possibility of impossible stairways tail events and countable player sets abstract in classical game theory players have finitely many actions and evaluate outcomes of mixed strategies using a von neumann morgenstern utility function allowing a larger but countable player set introduces phenomena that are impossible in finite games even if players have identical payoffs no conflicts of interest 1 this payoff may be minimized in dominant strategy equilibria and 2 games so alike that even the consequences of unilateral deviations are the same may have disjoint sets of payoff dominant equilibria moreover a class of games without pure or mixed nash equilibria is constructed

illicit drug use and labour market achievement evidence from the uk this study using data from the british crime survey bcs examines the effect of drug use on occupational achievement it starts by attempting to overcome the identification problem that results from the limited set of drug use questions presented in the bcs taking this into account and allowing for the endogeneity of drug use in equations for unemployment and labour market outcomes that a mild positive association with soft drugs and occupational achievement is observed that diminishes with age this relationship holds for males but not for females in contrast it is also found that past use of hard drugs significantly increases the likelihood of current unemployment although it appears to be unrelated to occupational success conditional on achieving employment

life cycle preferences over consumption and health when is cost effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost benefit analysis this paper studies life cycle preferences over consumption and health status we show that cost effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost benefit analysis if the lifetime utility function is additive over time multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status and if the utility of consumption is constant over time we derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form both under expected utility theory and under rank dependent utility theory which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory if cost effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost benefit analysis it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality adjusted life years qalys the willingness to pay for qalys depends on wealth remaining life expectancy health status and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption

keeping off the grass an econometric model of cannabis consumption in britain this paper presents estimates of a dynamic individual level model of cannabis consumption using data from a 1998 survey of young people in britain the econometric model is a split population generalization of the non stationary poisson process allowing for separate dynamic process for initiation into cannabis use and subsequent consumption the model allows for heterogeneity in consumption levels and behavioural shifts induced by leaving education and the parental home copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

class and exploitation in general convex cone economies abstract in this paper we examine what appropriate formulations for labor exploitation are in order to explain the emergence of class and exploitation status in capitalist economies given the well known controversy pertaining to plausible formulations for labor exploitation in joint production economies we propose an axiom axiom for labor exploitation le which every appropriate formulation of labor exploitation should satisfy using this axiom the necessary and sufficient condition for plausible formulations of labor exploitation is characterized to verify class exploitation correspondence principle cecp roemer 1982 according to this cecp no longer holds in general convex cone economies if the well known formulations of labor exploitation such as morishima 1974 and roemer 1982 chapter 5 are applied therefore we propose two new definitions of labor exploitation each of which verifies cecp

the simple analytics of tobacco taxation with illegal supply this paper examines the impact of tobacco excise taxes where legal and illegal supplies coexist the government s objective is to minimize cigarettes smoked in the economy or to maximize revenue or to minimize illegal activity it reacts to a competitive illegal supply in an adjoining jurisdiction a model of consumer choice is used to demonstrate how demand response to tax changes can yield counterintuitive results while the model mimics the canadian market similar situations characterize the us and european markets a novel element of the paper is the treatment of externalities on the supply side rather than the demand side resume analytique simple des taxes sur le tabac quand il y a offre illegale ce memoire examine l impact des taxes sur la vente de tabac quand des offres legale et illegale coexistent l objectif du gouvernement est de minimiser les cigarettes fumees dans l economie ou de maximiser le revenu fiscal ou de minimiser l activite illegale il doit prendre en compte l offre concurrentielle illegale dans une juridiction contigue on utilise un modele de choix du consommateur pour montrer comment la reaction de la demande aux changements dans les taxes peut engendrer des resultats contre intuitifs bien que le modele soit concu pour le marche canadien on trouve des situations avec des caracteristiques similaires dans les marches americain et europeens un element novateur du memoire est sa prise en compte des externalites du cote de l offre plutot que du cote de la demande

dynamic corrective taxes with time varying salience abstract economies across the globe are becoming increasingly cashless and many payment systems have become automated driving a temporal wedge between consumption and payment and generally making the costs of consumption intermittently salient since this inconsistent price salience alters demand elasticities it is a particular concern for goods that generate externalities and the price based policies deployed to address them this paper derives optimal dynamic corrective taxes for suboptimal and persistent consumption decisions these taxes depend on the agent s ability to commit to a future consumption path we also characterize a second best constant tax and the excess burden from time invariant tax rates when calibrated to u s residential electricity consumption the model shows that the second best constant tax is more than twice the marginal external cost of carbon emissions

preferences for consumption streams scale invariance correlation aversion and delay aversion under mortality risk lifetime financial decisions often require a decision analyst to elicit a decision maker s preferences for consumption streams in assessing such preferences the analyst might look for a set of reasonable conditions to check when selecting a utility form we provide such a set of conditions and show that they lead to the multiplicative expo power mep utility form some of our conditions involve trade offs under certainty and others relate to choices under uncertainty in the deterministic setting we invoke increasingness continuous differentiability mutual preferential independence and preferential scale invariance in the uncertainty setting we invoke componentwise risk aversion a utility independence condition and correlation aversion we apply the mep utility in a life cycle consumption planning problem under mortality risk in this context we find that the correlation averse mep utility is more realistic than and as tractable as the popular correlation neutral additive power and additive exponential utilities we show that the correlation averse decision maker prefers to consume more in life and leave less behind in death in addition we demonstrate that the correlation averse decision maker is more averse to delaying consumption in the face of mortality risk

survival versus consumption we develop an indirect method to estimate utility and willingness to pay wtp for reductions in the risk of death at various ages using a life cycle model of consumption we assume that an individual sets his consumption level each year so as to maximize his expected lifetime utility alternative assumptions about opportunities for borrowing and annuities characterize two polar types of societies in our robinson crusoe case an individual must be entirely self sufficient and annuities are not available in our perfect markets case an individual can borrow against future earnings and purchase actuarially fair annuities we show that under these assumptions wtp is the sum of livelihood discounted expected future earnings and consumer surplus to illustrate our methods we derive wtp for an average financially independent american man under plausible assumptions the model is calibrated to 1978 earnings e g 18 000 per year for men aged 45 54 with at least some income in the robinson crusoe case wtp increases from 500 000 at age 20 to a peak of 1 250 000 at age 40 and declines to 630 000 at age 60 in the perfect markets case age variations are less pronounced wtp is 1 050 000 at age 20 peaks at 1 070 000 at age 25 and declines to 600 000 at age 60 these results suggest that individuals value risks to their lives at several times the pro rata share of their future earnings

rational habit formation abstract this paper discusses consumer demand under rational habit formation if consumer tastes change endogenously through habit stocks depending on past consumption the rational consumer will make allowance of the future habit forming effects of current consumption a model with rational habit formation is made formally equivalent to an intertemporal consumer model without habit formation by redefining the cost of consumption and wealth the cost of consumption is obtained by adding the cost of future induced consumption to the rental price of the commodity the extended wealth concept is obtained by subtracting the cost of the initial stocks of habits and the cost of future physically necessary consumption from wealth the paper also investigates the implication of rational habit formation for constructing one period cost of living indices

the duration of the smoking habit i introduction most smokers smoke out of habit once the habit is ended many of smoking s most harmful effects decline rather quickly preventing and ending cigarette addiction is therefore the straightest path toward preventing the health damage done by cigarette smoking consequently the related questions of why people start smoking and why they quit are central to formulating and evaluating effective antismoking policies duration or hazard models are designed to measure the probability of transition between states and are thus ideal for investigating the structural determinants of the transition between addiction and non addiction nevertheless most previous work in the economics literature uses the aggregate smoking participation rate defined as the percentage of people who currently smoke or an individual s probability of participation rather than a hazard rate to measure the attractiveness of habitual smoking this paper models the hazard rates of both starting and quitting the cigarette smoking habit the starting hazard rate is the probability that an individual will start smoking in a given time period conditional on being a nonsmoker until then the quitting hazard rate is the probability of quitting smoking in a given time period conditional on being a smoker since the starting date both of these rates should rise and fall in response to changes in the attractiveness of smoking the two rates will respond differently to different stimuli since the starting hazard reflects the point of view of nonsmokers and the quitting hazard reflects the point of view of smokers hazard or duration models possess several advantages over smoking participation models most obviously smoking participation rates cannot directly distinguish between increased starting rates and decreased quitting rates but the hazard models can also in a participation rate model it is difficult to control for the effect of the duration of the habit whereas duration models are designed specifically to allow for and measure the dependence of the hazard rate on duration another advantage is that the participation rate at any one time will oversample the number of long term smokers relative to those who had a short term habit whereas a duration model is designed to avoid this source of bias one drawback however is that because of their inherent panel nature the data requirements of duration models are somewhat more difficult to satisfy as shall be seen the only previous work in the economics literature that estimates the hazard rate of starting smoking is douglas and hariharan 1994 my paper improves upon douglas and hariharan in at least three important ways first it estimates the hazard rate of quitting smoking as well as that of starting second it takes into account variation in state level regulation third its time varying covariate model allows hazard rates to respond dynamically to changes in cigarette price regulation and information variables the use of time varying covariates is important because it brings the empirical model into much closer accord with theory the decision whether or not to start or quit smoking is an ongoing decision made one day at a time on the basis of current information the hazard of starting is greatest when the cost of the habit appears lowest and its benefit appears highest this comparison of cost and benefit changes through time as price information income and life cycle variables change while douglas and hariharan 1994 used price information from the potential smoker s most vulnerable age on the theory that its marginal effect is greatest at that time the model used in this paper allows each individual s hazard rate to respond to changes in price and public information as they occur the leading theoretical model of the decision to smoke is the rational addiction model of becker and murphy 1988 which assumes that consumers of addictive goods begin smoking only after fully weighing the costs and benefits of the habit

alcoholism work and income this article reports on an empirical analysis of the relationships between alcoholism and income and working we show that the relationships between alcoholism and labor market success have important age or life cycle dimensions we present evidence that alcoholism may affect income more by restricting labor market participation than by affecting the wages of workers finally we demonstrate that the effects of alcoholism on earnings depend on the extent to which one controls for other covariates associated with alcoholism as such we suggest that there may be important indirect as well as direct effects of alcoholism on labor market success

tax incidence with strategic firms in the soft drink market abstract because soft drink sd consumption is considered to be a contributor to the epidemic of obesity there is a growing interest in evaluating the impact on sd consumption of alternative tax policies in this paper we propose a methodology to evaluate the impact of taxation of a food market taking into account the strategic price response of both manufacturers and retailers we apply this methodology to the french sd market and simulate the impacts of ad valorem and excise taxes we find that firms behave differently when facing an ad valorem tax or an excise tax an excise tax is overshifted to consumer prices while an ad valorem tax is undershifted to consumer prices we find that an excise tax based on the sugar content of sd is the most effective at reducing sd consumption our results also indicate that ignoring strategic pricing by firms leads to misestimations of the impact of taxation by between 15 and 40 depending on the products and the tax implemented in the short term that is ignoring positive long term health effects a 9 cents l excise tax has a small negative welfare effect about 1 person year

regional obesity determinants in the united states a model of myopic addictive behavior in food consumption obesity is considered one of the largest public health problems in the united states today the premise for our study is a body of results from medical research showing that sweetened foods i e an increased consumption of sugars leads first to sugar addiction and second to carbohydrate addiction and increased consumption of fats the latter feature is actually responsible for the increase in body mass index bmi but the trigger that produces cravings for extra calories is sugar and sweeteners based on our results a myopic model of addictive behavior in food consumption seems to capture the food consuming habits and related outbreak of obesity among the american population our results indicate that lower current and past real prices of sugar contribute significantly to higher values of bmi and increase the likelihood of becoming obese in the united states

the implications of heterogeneous habit in consumer beverage purchases on soda and sin taxes abstract in this article we study the heterogeneity of habit strength in households demand for regular carbonated sweetened beverages csbs and beer in the united states a demand model that nests a smooth transition function is used to describe habit based consumption patterns revealing heterogeneous strengths of habits among households we find that more habitual consumers those with a strong preference for a particular product are not as sensitive to price or expenditure as the aggregate population this finding is further supported by simulations of the potential effects of soda and beer taxes we find the aggregate response to soda and beer taxes is smaller than when the influence of habit is assumed to be homogeneous

tariffs habit persistence and the current account this paper emphasizes the importance of habit persistence in determining the effect of a permanent distortionary tariff on the current account a distortionary tariff reduces real permanent income requiring a fall in the standard of living if the marginal utility of real consumption is strongly increasing in the habitual standard of living then aggregate savings falls and the country runs a current account deficit however if the marginal utility of real consumption is not sufficiently strongly increasing or is decreasing in the habitual standards then the tariff leads to a rise in savings and a current account surplus

employment wages and alcohol consumption in russia 1 introductionconcerns regarding the relationship between alcohol consumption and labor market productivity are well grounded if problem drinking or alcoholism is considered a disease then it may have depressant effects on labor market productivity causing reductions in employment earnings and other labor market outcomes mullahy and sindelar 1993 1996 kenkel and ribar 1994 however there is a medical literature that documents a u shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of cardiovascular disease according to this literature moderate drinkers have a lower risk of cardiovascular disease than do either abstainers or heavy drinkers beaglehole and jackson 1992 doll et al 1994 consistent with this evidence several economists have found a positive association between moderate drinking and earnings berger and leigh 1988 french and zarkin 1995 heien 1996 hamilton and hamilton 1997 zarkin et al 1998 macdonald and shields 2001 this article investigates the impact of alcohol consumption on employment and wages in russia the primary contributions of the article are twofold first it enhances the economic literature on the relationship between alcohol consumption and labor market behavior by using data from a longitudinal survey the use of a longitudinal data set enables the estimation of a fixed effects model which helps avoid the potential bias caused by unobserved individual factors not captured in cross sectional models the use of a fixed effects model is an important extension to the literature because the data sets used in previous studies are cross sectional and usually lack adequate variables that could serve as identifying instruments to control for the endogeneity of alcohol consumption 1 furthermore the richness of the data set used in this article allows for the application of three alternative measures of alcohol consumption in the empirical analysis this is important because the relationship between alcohol consumption and labor market outcomes may be sensitive to the alcohol measure that is used the second notable contribution of this article is that it provides the first empirical evidence on the association between alcohol consumption and labor market outcomes in russia excessive alcohol consumption is a widespread problem in russia where per capita alcohol consumption is around 14 liters per year the world health organization who considers 8 liters to be a sign that a country has a critical consumption level for health problems quinn judge 1997 furthermore the dramatic fluctuations in mortality rates experienced in russia over the past 15 years have generated considerable attention to the potential effect of alcohol consumption on the overall health of the russian population it is important to investigate how labor market outcomes would be affected by alcohol consumption in a country which demonstrates such dramatic fluctuations in alcohol consumption and mortality consistent with the previous studies cross sectional results generally support the hypothesis of an inverse u shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and wages and employment results from the fixed effect models are found to be quite different from those of cross sectional models the positive effect of alcohol consumption on employment disappears for both males and females once the individual fixed effects are controlled for the results of the wage model lend support to a small and linear return to alcohol consumption but the effects are significant only at the 10 level the fixed effects estimates are smaller in magnitude and estimated with less precision compared with cross sectional estimates section 2 reviews the previous literature section 3 discusses the conceptual issues and empirical strategy section 4 introduces the data set section 5 provides a discussion of the results and sensitivity analyses section 6 concludes the article

on the existence of balanced growth equilibrium the authors characterize the class of dynamic models that allow for the most commonly used types of sustained economic growth balanced and asymptotically balanced they show that under a constant returns to scale technology asymptotically constant discount rate and asymptotically constant elasticity of marginal felicity are not only necessary but also sufficient conditions for the existence of a n asymptotically balanced growth equilibrium path the authors provide examples of recursive utility models that accept a n asymptotically balanced growth equilibrium and discuss their implications on cross country differences in growth rates as well as on savings behavior and wealth distribution copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

facilitating healthy dietary habits an experiment with a low income population abstract this paper tests an intervention aimed at facilitating cognitively the adoption of healthy dietary habits we provide easy to understand information about the risks of developing diabetes or heart diseases and give easy to follow dietary recommendations to minimize these risks we implement two variations one consisting of generic information the other consisting of information tailored to the individual the latter resembling newly developed on line health assessment tools on top of the information treatment we implement a second experimental variation encouraging people to spend more time thinking about their decisions we find evidence that the information intervention leads to healthier choices in the short run but mostly in the generic treatment surprisingly we find that people are on average pessimistic about their health and therefore receive good news on average when the information is tailored to them we find no evidence that increasing the time available to make choices leads to healthier choices and find no evidence of long term changes in habits these results do not support a bounded rationality explanation for poor dietary choices

your money or your life a prescriptive model for health safety and consumption decisions in this paper we develop a conceptual framework and model for valuing risks to an individual s health and life and to support decision making about investments in health quality of life and safety our treatment of health risks in the model builds on the popular quality adjusted life year qaly framework that balances health quality and length of life issues we extend this framework to consider financial concerns as well as health quality and length of life our model considers uncertainty in income and health and incorporates the decision maker s ability to adjust consumption over time in response to changes in expectations about health and income we use this model to study the optimal tradeoffs between financial gains or losses and improvements or reductions in health or longevity and apply it in two example medical decision problems

do people anticipate loss aversion there is growing interest in the use of loss contracts that offer performance incentives as up front payments that employees can lose standard behavioral models predict a trade off in the use of loss contracts employees will work harder under loss contracts than under gain contracts but anticipating loss aversion they will prefer gain contracts to loss contracts in a series of experiments we test these predictions by measuring performance and preferences for payoff equivalent gain and loss contracts we find that people indeed work harder under loss than gain contracts as the theory predicts surprisingly rather than a preference for the gain contract we find that people actually prefer loss contracts in exploring mechanisms for our results we find suggestive evidence that people do anticipate loss aversion but select into loss contracts as a commitment device to improve performance using one bias loss aversion to address another dynamic inconsistency data as supplemental material are a