corruption and the shadow economy one way or two way street this paper attempts to bring some resolution to the relation between corruption and the shadow economy while previous research focuses on the static relationship between the two we account for dynamics using a panel vector autoregression model and consider influences from the official economy and institutional quality using cross national panel data for 108 countries over the period 1984 2006 results show a bidirectional relationship with initial complementarity and substitution over time thus the nature of the two way street is shown to change over time and our consideration of dynamics reveals the complementarity substitution switch

dodging the grabbing hand the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries across 69 countries higher tax rates are associated with less unofficial activity as a percent of gdp but corruption is associated with more unofficial activity entrepreneurs go underground not to avoid official taxes but to reduce the burden of bureaucracy and corruption dodging the grabbing hand in this way reduces tax revenues as a percent of both official and total gdp as a result corrupt governments become small governments and only relatively uncorrupt governments can sustain high tax rates 2000 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

why has u s inflation become harder to forecast we examine whether the u s rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and to the extent that it has what changes in the inflation process have made it so the main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend cycle model with stochastic volatility or equivalently an integrated moving average process with time varying parameters this model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles and begins to explain some multivariate inflation forecasting puzzles as well

inequality and informality abstract this paper presents theory and evidence on the determinants of the size of the informal sector we propose a simple theoretical model in which it is positively related to income inequality more so under weak institutions and is negatively related to the economy s wealth these predictions are then empirically validated using different proxies of the size of the informal sector income inequality and institutional quality the results are shown to be robust with respect to a variety of econometric specifications we also find that government interventions through regulations lose much of its robustness in the presence of the above factors

regime changes in international real interest rates are they a monetary phenomenon in this paper we use the bai and perron 1998 2001 2003 methodology to test for multiple structural breaks in the mean real interest rate for 13 industrialized countries we find extensive evidence of structural breaks in the mean real interest rate for all 13 countries in an attempt to explain the breaks in international real interest rates we also test for multiple structural breaks in the mean inflation rate for the 13 countries once again we find extensive evidence of structural breaks in the mean inflation rate for all of the countries interestingly the breaks in inflation rates and real interest rates often coincide with increases decreases in the mean inflation rate as we move from one regime to the next typically associated with decreases increases in the mean real interest rate

agency relationships in family firms theory and evidence does owner management necessarily eliminate the agency costs of ownership drawing on agency literature and on the economic theory of the household we argue that private ownership and owner management expose privately held owner managed firms to agency threats ignored by jensen s and meckling s 1976 agency model private ownership and owner management not only reduce the effectiveness of external control mechanisms they also expose firms to a self control problem created by incentives that cause owners to take actions which harm themselves as well as those around them jensen 1994 p 43 thus shareholders have incentive to invest resources in curbing both managerialand owner opportunism we extend this thesis to the domain of the family firm after developing hypotheses which describe how family dynamics and specifically altruism exacerbate agency problems experienced by these privately held owner managed firms we use data obtained from a large scale survey of family businesses to field test our hypotheses and find evidence which suggests support for our proposed theory finally we discuss the implications of our theory for research on family and other types of privately held owner managed firms

inflation and real short term interest rates a kalman filter analysis of the term structure this paper applies the kalman filter technique to look at the relationship among real interest rates inflation and the term structure of interest rate under the expectations hypothesis using quarterly data from 1960 1 to 1991 1 for inflation three month nominal short term interest rates and long term yields with maturities from one to five years this paper finds that the expectations hypothesis of the term structure holds up well for the data under the assumptions of a time varying premium and a random walk real interest rate in other words a reconciliation of the expectations hypothesis with the data is attained by assuming time varying term premium and non stationary real interest rate

the informal sector in developed and less developed countries a literature survey the main goal of this study is two fold 1 to provide ageneral overview of the contributions to the literature on theinformal sector with a special focus on the public choiceapproach and 2 to compare these contributions across twoinstitutionally different types of countries developed andless developed developing and transition countries thepaper focuses on the criteria used to define the informalsector the relationship between the formal and informaleconomy tax evasion and public choice analysis it isstressed throughout this paper that the distinction betweenthe two types of countries is of key importance

inflation persistence the nairu and the great recession the rate of inflation fell far less over the period 2007 2013 than in the period 1979 1985 despite similar large increases in the unemployment rate this paper asks why possible explanations include a change in the persistence of inflation changes in nairu and other shocks a change in the persistence of inflation with inflation more anchored in the period 2007 2013 than in the period 1979 1985 is found to be important the level and change in the nairu cannot be precisely estimated but the data suggest an increase of nearly 1 percentage point since 2007

the pervasive effects of family on entrepreneurship toward a family embeddedness perspective families and businesses have often been treated as naturally separate institutions whereas we argue that they are inextricably intertwined long term changes in family composition and in the roles and relations of family members have produced families in north america that are growing smaller and losing many of their previous role relationships such transformations in the institution of the family have implications for the emergence of new business opportunities opportunity recognition business start up decisions and the resource mobilization process we suggest that entrepreneurship scholars would benefit from a family embeddedness perspective on new venture creation d 2003 elsevier science inc all rights reserved

interest rates and exchange rates some new empirical results abstract this paper presents indirect evidence on the behavior on the real interest rate by studying the correlations between changes in nominal interest rates and in exchange rates these correlations are examined both before and after october 6 1979 the empirical evidence supports the views that monetary shocks affect the real rate and that the change in fed monetary policy on october 6 led to greater variation in the real rate

can futures market data be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates this paper examines whether futures market data can be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates several ways of examining the data indicate that futures market data are not particularly informative about real interest rates not only does this evidence cast some doubt on results in previous research that make use of futures market data to draw inferences about real interest rates but it also indicates that future research on real interest rates may need to turn to a different line of attack understanding the behavior of real interest rates is a central issue in financial economics in previous research on this topic several approaches have been used to measure real interest rates in one approach real interest rates have been calculated by subtracting survey data on inflation expectations such as the livingston data from nominal interest rates the problem with survey based measures of real interest rates is that they are only as good as the survey measure of inflation expectations and there may be little incentive for the survey respondents to answer accurately an even more telling criticism of survey based measures often ignored in the literature is that the behavior of market expectations in driven by economic agents ai the margin who are eliminating unexploited profit opportunities market expectations are unlikely therefore to be well measured by the average expectations of survey respondents 2 because of doubts about survey based measures of real interest rates other

why do firms hide bribes and unofficial activity after communism abstract our survey of private manufacturing firms finds the size of hidden unofficial activity to be much larger in russia and ukraine than in poland slovakia and romania a comparison of cross country averages shows that managers in russia and ukraine face higher effective tax rates worse bureaucratic corruption greater incidence of mafia protection and have less faith in the court system our firm level regressions for the three eastern european countries find that bureaucratic corruption is significantly associated with hiding output

is globalization reducing poverty and inequality abstract over the past 20 years or so india china and the rest of east asia experienced fast economic growth and falls in the poverty rate latin america stagnated the former soviet union central and eastern europe and sub saharan africa regressed but what are the net trends the neoliberal argument says that world poverty and income inequality fell over the past two decades for the first time in more than a century and a half thanks to the rising density of economic integration across national borders the evidence therefore confirms that globalization in the context of the world economic regime in place since the end of bretton woods generates more mutual benefit than conflicting interests this paper questions the empirical basis of the neoliberal argument

is inflation persistence different in reality this study examines the inflation persistence using both online and official price indexes in argentina brazil china japan germany south africa the uk and the us using fractional integration technique the main results suggest that the degree of persistence estimated by the long memory parameter is smaller when using online price indexes believed to be a more realistic measure of inflation mainly in the cases of argentina brazil china and the uk monetary policy implications are discussed

nominal interest rates as indicators of inflation expectations forward interest rates have become popular indicators of inflation expectations theusefulness of this indicator depends on the relative volatilty and the correlation of inflation expectations and expected real interest rates this paper studies u s and u k data using a range of different tools and data sets the forward rate rule perfoms reasonably well in spite of significant movements in the expected real interest rate the reason is that the noise that movements in the expected real interest rate add to the inflation expectations is balanced by a tendency for expected real interest rates and inflation expectations to move in opposite directions

poverty and the shadow economy the role of governmental institutions this paper examines the impact of poverty on the size of the shadow economy using cross country panel data for over 100 countries for the period 1991 2015 the results show that poverty has a positive and significant effect on the size of the shadow economy furthermore we argue that the quality and size of governmental institutions matter in moderating the impact of poverty on the shadow economy considering the interactions between poverty and government quality and size we find that poverty has the largest effect on the size of the shadow economy when government quality is the lowest and the size of the government is the largest these results withstand a battery of robustness checks

an empirical investigation into the international real interest rate linkages linear dynamic stochastic processes are derived for the ex ante real interest rates from those followed by the ex post real rates under the identifying assumption of rational expectations the technique is used to study instantaneous and lagged effects of u s ex ante real rates on a number of oecd ex ante real rates the author finds significant contemporaneous correlations between ex ante real rates in the long run however real rates seem to be insulated

measuring price level uncertainty and instability in the united states 1850 2012 abstract we measure price level uncertainty and instability in the united states over the period 1850 to 2012 major outbreaks of price level uncertainty and instability occur both before and after world war ii alternating with three price level moderations one near the turn of the twentieth century another under bretton woods and a third in the 1990s there is no evidence that the price level was systematically more stable or less uncertain before or after world war ii moderations sometimes involved links to gold but the experience of the 1990s proves that a well managed fiat regime can achieve the same outcome

contextual influences on the corporate entrepreneurship performance relationship a longitudinal analysis abstract over the past several years corporate entrepreneurship has been widely touted by executives and researchers alike as an effective means for revitalizing companies and improving their financial performance for the most part the call for greater entrepreneurial behavior on the part of established companies has been accepted on faith as an inherently desirable objective the implicit logic behind the pervasive belief in the value of corporate entrepreneurship seems to be that risk taking innovation and aggressive competitive action the key elements of entrepreneurial corporations will help in identifying and pursuing lucrative product market opportunities and in providing new bases for achieving superior competitive positions but what do we really know about the financial consequences of corporate entrepreneurship most of the evidence that corporate entrepreneurship pays off is anecdotal in nature or based on cross sectional studies that focus on the short term implications of entrepreneurial behaviors as such in a definitive sense we know very little about the financial consequences of corporate entrepreneurship in an attempt to improve our understanding of this issue this article describes a study of corporate entrepreneurship and its impact on company financial performance data were collected from three different samples over a seven year period to assess the longitudinal impact of corporate entrepreneurship on firm performance these samples consist of 24 medium sized manufacturing firms representing 14 industry segments 39 chemical companies and 45 fortune 500 industrial firms representing five industry segments data were gathered on each sample using both primary and secondary sources regression analysis was then used to analyze the data the results suggest that corporate entrepreneurship has a positive impact on financial measures of company performance this effect on performance which tends to be modest over the first few years increases over time suggesting that corporate entrepreneurship may indeed be a generally effective means for improving long term company financial performance moreover the results indicate that corporate entrepreneurship is a particularly effective practice among companies operating in hostile environments as opposed to benign environments the study has three principal implications for practicing managers first the study documents the general financial viability of engaging in corporate entrepreneurship this is not to suggest that corporate entrepreneurship is a panacea for improving financial performance however entrepreneurial behavior when considered on the whole i e across firms and industries is associated with superior financial performance second the study suggests a need to use a long term time horizon in order to adequately judge the financial consequences of corporate entrepreneurship the use of a shorter evaluation period may not allow sufficient time for entrepreneurial actions to have their full market and corresponding financial impact finally the study identifies the context specific character of effective entrepreneurial practice specifically corporate entrepreneurship appears to be a particularly effective strategic practice among firms operating in hostile business settings

shadow economy and unemployment rate in u s a is there a structural relationship an empirical analysis this article aims to estimate the size of the us shadow economy se using a structural equation approach and to evaluate if a structural relationship exists between the se and the unemployment rate ur in the united states the size of the se is estimated to be decreasing over the last two decades we corroborate the existence of a structural relationship between the se and the ur by using a simple theoretical model furthermore we extend the okun s law to estimate the structural relationship between growth rate of official gdp se and ur our results indicate a significant positive relationship between the se and the ur

an empirical investigation of the determinants of national interest rates differences abstract under floating exchange rates countries are supposed to be able to follow independent monetary policies while exchange and interest rates are free to adapt to expectations and new information this note investigates over the recent period of floating exchange rates whether interest rate differences are caused by expectations of exchange rate fluctuations international arbitrage model or differences in domestic economic policies domestic model or both simultaneously a domestic interest rate determination model has to be postulated and a classical fisherian relation was selected even with such a simple domestic model the driving force in setting interest rate seems to be domestic rather than international this result could be explained by international market inefficiencies but more probably by the fact that exchange rate variations are so unpredictable that their expectations play a little role in setting differences between national interest rates

stock prices asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten european countries abstract this paper investigates the relationship between stock indices asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten european countries it is shown that employment imports inflation and interest rates are inversely related to stock prices expectations about future real activity measures for money and the u s yield curve are positively related to stock prices a portfolio of european stock indices was constructed and it is shown that this portfolio is the variable that most strongly explains the variation in the stock prices the associations between stock prices and macroeconomic variables are shown to be strongest in germany the netherlands switzerland and the united kingdom there is a high degree of similarity between the effects in the first three of these countries in several instances the stock prices are related to historic value of economic variables indicating that predictive models can be constructed

management control systems in family firms a review of the literature and directions for the future family firms play a significant role in the global economy although family firm literature has devoted much time and effort to investigating topics concerning corporate governance leadership ownership and succession accounting issues have received relatively scant attention in this paper we assemble and critically review extant literature on the choice of management controls this is an essential topic for firms as management control systems mcs are used to make sure subordinates behave in function of the goals of the firm family firms however have distinct features such as differences in governance structures and goals which can have a significant impact on whether and how mcs are used we conclude this review paper by providing avenues for future research that can advance our understanding of both the determinants and the outcomes of the choice of mcs

corruption and the shadow economy an empirical analysis this paper analyzes the influence of the shadow economy on corruption and vice versa we hypothesize that corruption and the shadow economy are substitutes in high income countries while they are complements in low income countries the hypotheses are tested for a cross section of 98 countries our results show that there is no robust relationship between corruption and the size of the shadow economy when perceptions based indices of corruption are used employing an index of corruption based on a structural model however corruption and the shadow economy are complements in countries with low income but not in high income countries

the relation between stock prices and inflationary expectations the international evidence this paper provides empirical evidence on the relation between stock returns and inflationary expectations for nine countries over the period 1971 80 the fisherian assumption that real returns are independent of inflationary expectations is soundly rejected for each major stock market of the world using interest rates as a proxy for expected inflation our data provide consistent support for the geske and roll model whose basic hypothesis is that stock price movements signal negative revisions in inflationary expectations finally a weak real interest rate effect was found for some of these countries

correct cointegration tests of the long run relationship between nominal interest and inflation the fisher 1930 hypothesis suggests that a long run equilibrium relationship exists between the non stationary series nominal interest and expected inflation testing such a cointegrating relationship is complicated by the presence of the unobserved ex antereal rate of interest in residuals from the cointegrating regression assumptions concerning the stochastic properties of the expected real rate of interest are examined and two proxies for the ex antereal rate are employed in multivariate cointegration tests of the fisher hypothesis

a simple adaptive measure of core inflation this paper proposes a new measure of core inflation and compares it with several existing measures the new measure is adaptive and is designed to track sudden and persistent movements in inflation such as those arising from changes in monetary policy regimes the adaptive measure filters out transients more effectively than existing measures and it is a superior predictor of locally mean reverting components of inflation

entrepreneurial orientation and small business performance a configurational approach the strategy and entrepreneurship literatures suggest that an entrepreneurial orientation eo improves firm performance but the empirical results are mixed in this article we investigate the eo of small businesses and find that a main effects only analysis provides an incomplete picture of performance access to capital and the dynamism of the environment are important to small businesses and we find that when combined with eo a three way interaction model the configurational approach explains variance in performance over and above a contingency model two way interactions and a main effects only model

core inflation and trend inflation abstract this paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation but with a time varying distributed lags of weights where the sectoral weight depends on the timevarying volatility and persistence of the sectoral inflation series and on the comovement among sectors the modeling framework is a dynamic factor model with time varying coefficients and stochastic volatility as in del negro and otrok 2008 and is estimated using u s data on seventeen components of the personal consumption expenditure inflation index

job search and cyclical unemployment a model economy is described that integrates job search and signal extraction analysis equilibrium differs from search models without signal extraction in that even with a fixed real sector unemployment fluctuates stochastically it differs from standard signal extraction models because search introduces persistence in fact unemployment follows a second order difference equation with coefficient that are functions of current and lagged values of the stochastic shocks thus the model has the potential to mimic actual business cycle data despite the fact that the underlying shocks are independently and identically distributed policy implications are discussed

shadow economies size causes and consequences using various methods the size of the shadow economy in 76 developing transition and oecd countries is estimated average size varies from 12 percent of gdp for oecd countries to 23 percent for transition countries and 39 percent for developing countries increasing taxation and social security contributions combined with rising state regulations are driving forces for the increase of the shadow economy especially in oecd countries according to some findings corruption has a positive impact on the size of the shadow economy and a growing shadow economy has a negative effect on official gdp growth

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection

money supply announcements interest rates and foreign exchange abstract this paper presents a test of the joint hypothesis that money supply announcements affect the real interest rate and that changes in the real interest rate affect the exchange rate in the short run the test results are consistent with the joint hypothesis for example it is found that announcement of an unexpected jump in the money supply is accompanied by an increase in interest rates and an appreciation of the dollar if the rise in interest rates was entirely due to higher inflationary expectations the dollar should not appreciate

trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series two structural time series models for annual observations are constructed in terms of trend cycle and irregular components the models are then estimated via the kalman filter using data on five u s macroeconomic time series the results provide some interesting insights into the dynamic structure of the series particularly with respect to cyclical behavior at the same time they illustrate the development of a model selection strategy for structural time series models

tests of the fisher hypothesis with international data theory and evidence the fisher hypothesis 7 8 states that nominal interest rates adjust fully to expected inflation for years tests of this hypothesis followed fisher 8 in regressing nominal rates on a distributed lag of past inflation which was used as a proxy for the expected rate of inflation see roll 15 for references fisher eventually concluded that nominal rates do not fully reflect expected inflation saying that when the cost of living is not stable the rate of interest takes the appreciation and depreciation into account to some extent but only slightly and in general indirectly 1 fisher attributed this to money illusion in more recent years other researchers have explained the non neutrality of inflation on grounds of general equilibrium sargent 16 and taxes darby 3 and feldstein 6 a new method of testing the fisher hypothesis was introduced by fama 4 he concluded that interest rates set in u s financial markets are informationally efficient fama s work highlighted the two separate although not always distinguishable elements in the fisher hypothesis 1 the effect of expected inflation on the expected real rate and 2 the question of whether or not the nominal rate reflects a rational forecast of expected inflation to test the informational efficiency of nominal rates fama 4 assumed a constant expected real rate arguing in the later paper that the efficiency test is robust with respect to the assumption of the constancy of the expected real rate this assumption has come under severe criticism carlson 2 nelson and schwert 14 on the grounds that the efficiency results are not verifiable given the actual behavior of realized real rates summers 17 extended the study of interest rates to the period 1860 to 1979 using both fisher s and fama s methods and found that the results are less favorable for the fisher hypothesis in a more recent study fama and gibbons 5 tested the fisher hypothesis using a procedure developed by ansley 1 which assumes that the expected real rate follows a random walk they concluded that nominal rates fully reflect expected inflation at the same time that the expected real rate adjusts to it this paper examines the question of whether international interest rates reflect expected inflation in their respective countries in doing so we expand on the previous work of kane and rosenthal 11 we show that although fama 4 introduced a bias into his tests his general approach was correct we then present simple time series tests and show that they fail for eurocurrency rates

market rationality tests based on cross equation restrictions abstract the information used by researchers in cross equation tests of rational expectations may be a small subset of the information available to the market such tests produce consistent estimates but have low power we develop a mechanism for dealing with this problem and use the procedure to perform cross equation tests on predictions from the football betting market the tests fail to reject rationality we provide evidence that market predictions from betting markets are not formed rationally it appears therefore that cross equation tests have low power even if the information sets used by the researcher and the market are approximately the same

does family employment enhance mses performance integrating socioemotional wealth and family embeddedness perspectives abstract this paper analyzes the effect of family employment on performance in micro and small enterprises mses by combining two research perspectives that until now have been conducted separately the family embeddedness perspective of entrepreneurship aldrich and cliff 2003 and the socioemotional wealth sew approach to family business gomez mejia et al 2007 our integrated perspective allows us to highlight how the nature of the employment relationships in mses enhances the benefits derived from the socioemotional endowment associated with family labor and reduces the opportunity costs of employing relatives moreover we assert that this relationship is moderated by specific family characteristics that determine the firm s ability to preserve the sew while at the same time pursuing financial goals our results provide partial support to the enhancing role of family labour on mses performance employing family members increases sales but decreases profitability as measured by roa this effect also results in improved performance for women led firms and for firms that have received family funding but impairs mses performance when the business is the main source of the owner s household income

informal sector the credit market channel abstract we build a model of firms choice between formality and informality complying with costly registration procedures allows the firms to benefit from key public goods enforcement of property rights and contracts that make the participation in the formal credit market possible in a moral hazard framework with credit rationing their decision is shaped by the interaction between the cost of entry into formality and the relative efficiency of formal versus informal credit mechanisms and their related institutional arrangements the model is consistent with existing stylized facts on the determinants of informality

on the accuracy of time series interest rate and survey forecasts of inflation there has been much work examining and evaluating different methodologies in forecasting inflation for example fama 1975 1977 develops an interest rate model to predict the 1 monthahead rate of inflation using the cpi fama and gibbons 1982 1984 modify the interest rate model to account for a nonconstant real rate of interest and compare it to a univariate timeseries forecasting model and to the livingston forecasts carlson 1977a 1977b and others also analyze the consensus forecasts from the livingston survey pertaining to multiperiod forecasts of inflation pearce 1979 considered the livingston survey and time series forecasts our purpose in this paper is to investigate further the relative forecasting ability of three different methodologies in contrast to previous studies that have generally used the cpi to measure inflation our analysis uses the implicit gnp deflator this modification is motivated largely by the fact that calculations of the cpi inflat n rate often are distorted greatly by changes in relative prices e g blinder 1980 fischer 1981 this paper compares the accuracy of three different inflation forecasting procedures these include a univariate time series model an interest rate model based on the methodology of fama and gibbons and the median forecasts derived from the american statistical association national bureau of economic research survey the evidence presented is based on ex ante forecasts of quarterly inflation rates using the gnp deflator for the period 1970 11984 11 based on the evidence presented the general conclusion is that the survey forecasts provide the most accurate inflation forecasts

fisher phillips friedman and the measured impact of inflation on interest a reply the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that empirical findings which persistently appear to contradict the fisher hypothesis that the nominal rate of interest should rise by the full amount of an increase in anticipated inflation are due basically to a failure to control for changes in the real rate of interest that are associated with changes in anticipated inflation we are guided in our search for proper specification of a fisher equation by a simple general equilibrium model which is employed to derive the impact of a change in anticipated inflation upon nominal interest given the requirement that commodity money and labor markets remain in equilibrium in effect we depart from the empirical tradition which has grown up around testing of the fisher hypothesis that takes the real interest rate to be independent of anticipated inflation and argues that for anticipated inflation properly measured the data ought to support the fisher hypothesis 1

are tax effects important in the long run fisher relationship evidence from the municipal bond market are nominal bonds appropriately discounted for taxes empirical estimnates of the response of nominal interest rates to changes in inflation the fisher effect have failed to produce a definitive answer four reasons have been put forward as possible explanations i tobin effects ii fiscal illusion iii peso problems and iv different estimators utilizing data on taxable and tax exempt bond interest rates and several different estimators we find that the fisher effect estimates are always larger for the taxable bond relative to the tax exempt bond suggesting that fiscal illusion and different estimators cannot account for the previous results how economic agents respond to the tax burdens of assets with different tax treatment is an important issue at both the level of the individual micro and the aggregate economy macro one clear source of evidence would appear to be the market for high quality debt trading in both taxable and tax exempt debt occurs on a daily basis the response of the rates of return on taxable and tax exempt debt to changes in expected inflation are described by the fisher relationship the fisher relationship is one of the oldest equilibrium relationships in financial economics fisher s original proposition was that if the real rate of interest is relatively constant over time a fully perceived change in the purchasing power of money as proxied by the inverse of the rate of inflation would be accompanied by a proportional increase in the nominal interest rate darby 1975 points out that when nominal interest income is taxed as are interest payments on u s treasury bills the fisher relationship implies a response from nominal interest rates that is greater than the change in expected inflation in order to maintain the constant ex ante real interest rate summers 1983 suggests that given average marginal tax rates in the united states the appropriate value of the fisher effect is 1 3 to 1 5 for tax exempt bonds the original fisher specification should be a good approximation implying a fisher effect close to unity in a seminal paper fama 1975 presents evidence to support the hypothesis that changes in nominal

long memory and level shifts in the volatility of stock market return indices there has been interest in the possibility of confusing long memory and structural changes in level and studies showed that when a short memory process is contaminated by level shifts the estimate of the fractional differencing parameter is biased upward and the autocovariances decay slowly we analyze the properties of the autocorrelation function the periodogram and the log periodogram estimate of the memory parameter when the level shift component is a mixture model our results explain many findings reported and uncover new features we confront our theoretical predictions using log squared returns as a proxy for the volatility of some assets returns including daily s p 500 returns over the period 1928 2002 the estimates follow patterns that would obtain if the process was short memory with level shifts instead of fractionally integrated a simple test is also proposed which reinforces this conclusion

the devil is in the shadow do institutions affect income and productivity or only official income and official productivity this paper assesses the relationship between institutions output and productivity when official output is corrected for the size of the shadow economy our results confirm the usual positive impact of institutional quality on official output and total factor productivity and its negative impact on the size of the underground economy however once output is corrected for the shadow economy the relationship between institutions and output becomes weaker the impact of institutions on total corrected factor productivity becomes insignificant differences in corrected output must then be attributed to differences in factor endowments these results survive several tests for robustness

measuring uncertainty about long run predictions long run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy planning and portfolio decisions we consider forecasts of the long horizon average of a scalar variable typically the growth rate of an economic variable the main contribution is the construction of prediction sets with asymptotic coverage over a wide range of data generating processes allowing for stochastically trending mean growth slow mean reversion and other types of long run dependencies we illustrate the method by computing prediction sets for 10 to 75 year average growth rates of u s real per capita gdp and consumption productivity price level stock prices and population jel classi cation c22 c53 e17

fisher s paradox and the theory of interest irving fisher s theory of interest has proved to be a most durable and influential contribution to economic theory a central element of fisher s contribution is the fisher hypothesis that over the longer term the real rate of interest is approximately constant being determined largely by time preference with movements in the nominal interest rate reflecting movements in the rate of inflation one for one the paradox of the fisher hypothesis is that despite its wide acceptance as the cornerstone of interest rate theory most empirical evidence appears to be inconsistent with the hypothesis at least in its strictest form this empirical anomaly was noted by fisher himself who attributed it to money illusion in the fifty years following the publication of the theory of interest a considerable literature has evolved around this paradox the unifying theme of this literature is a common acceptance of the essence of fisher s hypothesis most of the energy in this literature has been devoted to explaining systematic movements in the real rate of interest and to providing reasons why the relationship between the nominal interest rate and inflation may only be approximate in

money real interest rates and output a reinterpretation of postwar u s data this paper reexamines both monthly and quarterly u s postwar data to investigate if the observed comovements between money real interestrates prices and output are compatible with the money real interest output link suggested by existing monetary theories of output which include both keynesian and equilibrium models the major empirical findings are these 1 in both monthly and quarterly data we cannot reject the hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is exogenous or granger causally prior in the context of a four variable system which contains money prices nominal interest rates and industrial production 2 in quarterly data there is significantly more information con tained in either the levels of expected inflation or the innovationof this variable for predicting future output given current and lagged output than in any other variable examined money actualinflation nominal interest rates or ex ante real rates the effect of an inflation innovation on future output is unambiguously negative the first result casts strong doubt on the empirical importance of existing monetary theories of output which imply that money should have a causal role on the ex ante real rates the second result would appear incompatible with most demand driven models of output in light of these results we propose an alternative structural model which can account for the major dynamic interactions among the variables this model has two central features i output is unaffected by money supply and ii the money supply process is motivated by short run price stability this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

toward a theory of agency and altruism in family firms surprisingly the majority of u s family firms offer employed family members short and long term performance based incentive pay we draw on the household economics and altruism literatures to explain why family firms might feel compelled to do so and develop theory that predicts when this practice will be beneficial results based on data obtained from 883 family firms show that altruism as reflected by the parents estate and share transfer intentions moderates the effect of these pay incentives as our theory predicts as such this article helps explain both how altruism influences agency relationships in family firms and why business practice in family firms differs from those found in other types of firms

the correlates of entrepreneurship in three types of firms the objective of the research was to discover the chief determinants of entrepreneurship the process by which organizations renew themselves and their markets by pioneering innovation and risk taking some authors have argued that personality factors of the leader are what determine entrepreneurship others have highlighted the role played by the structure of the organization while a final group have pointed to the importance of strategy making we believed that the manner and extent to which entrepreneurship would be influenced by all of these factors would in large measure depend upon the nature of the organization based upon the work of a number of authors we derived a crude typology of firms simple firms are small and their power is centralized at the top planning firms are bigger their goal being smooth and efficient operation through the use of formal controls and plans organic firms strive to be adaptive to their environments emphasizing expertise based power and open communications the predictiveness of the typology was established upon a sample of 52 firms using hypothesis testing and analysis of variance techniques we conjectured that in simple firms entrepreneurship would be determined by the characteristics of the leader in planning firms it would be facilitated by explicit and well integrated product market strategies and in organic firms it would be a function of environment and structure these hypotheses were largely borne out by correlational and multiple regression analyses any programs which aim to stimulate entrepreneurship would benefit greatly from tailoring recommendations to the nature of the target firms

the adjustment of stock prices to information about inflation this paper analyzes the reaction of stock prices to the new information about inflation based on daily returns to the standard and poor s composite portfolio from 1953 78 it seems that the stock market reacts negatively to the announcement of unexpected inflation in the consumer price index c p i although the magnitude of the reaction is small it is interesting to note that the stock market seems to react at the time of announcement of the c p i approximately one month after the price data are collected by the bureau of labor statistics

the fisher hypothesis under different monetary regimes we examine the relation between inflation and nominal interest rates under the various monetary regimes in effect in the united states since the turn of the century our data include a newly constructed time series of short term municipal bond yields observed annually since 1902 the results generally support the hypothesis that after tax nominal yields adjust point for point with rationally forecasted inflation for the postwar years but strongly reject that hypothesis for the preceding years we suggest and offer supporting evidence that the difference between the two subperiods may be attributable to differences in the optimal forecasting technique for each era when forecasting is a costly endeavor

relative price variability real shocks and the stock market in this paper we investigate the effects of relative price variability on output and the stock market and gauge the extent to which inflation proxies for relative price variability in stock return inflation regressions the evidence shows that the negative stock returninflation relations proxy for the adverse effects of relative price variability on economic activity particularly during the seventies when the u s experienced oil supply shocks hence it appears that inflation spuriously affects the stock market in two ways the aggregate output link of fama 1981 and the supply shocks reflected in relative price variability a number of papers have attempted to explain the anomalous negative relations between stock returns and inflation witnessed in the post war period one hypothesis that has held up well in light of empirical evidence suggests that the negative relation between stock returns and unexpected inflation simply reflects the more fundamental positive relation between stock returns and future real variables see e g fama 1981 geske and roll 1983 and kaul 1987 1989 in this paper we investigate the effects of relative price variability on output and the stock market and gauge the extent to which inflation proxies for relative price variability in stock return inflation regressions first relative price variability can have detrimental effects on output and employment see e g friedman 1977 and barro 1976 second absolute relative price confusion models of the lucas 1973 type suggest that monetary shocks can induce a positive relation between inflation and relative price variability see e g cukierman 1983 hence the negative stock return inflation relations could simply be a reflection of the negative effects of relative price variability on the stock market we use data for the 1947 1985 period to test the various links of our hypothesis the results indicate that relative price variability is positively related to both expected and unexpected inflation measures relative price variability also has a significant negative effect on output and the stock market more importantly

the influence of direct democracy on the shadow economy we analyze both theoretically and empirically the influence of direct democratic institutions on the size and development of shadow economies our model suggests that as the extent of direct democracy increases implemented fiscal policies more nearly reflect the preferences of citizens and so reduce their incentives to operate in the informal sector this theory implies a negative relationship between the extent of direct democracy and the size of the country s shadow economy we also theorize that direct democracy has a greater effect in reducing the informal sector when the former is at low or intermediate values and when the electoral system is characterized by a larger district magnitude an empirical investigation of a sample of 57 democracies confirms our model s predictions

do forest assets hedge inflation forest assets are commonly viewed as good hedges against inflation the view is based largely however on anecdotal evidence rather than empirical analysis this paper examines the historical relationship between forestry returns and inflation the results suggest that forests in the u s west and south have been superior hedges against higher than anticipated inflation forests in the northeast have been less effective inflation hedges the results also indicate that western and southern forests have been overvalued during periods of relatively high expected inflation markets for forests in the northeast however have been relatively efficient processors of inflation expectations

estimation of the specification error in the fisher equation this paper asks how false is the fisher hypotheis previous work has asked is the fisher hypothesis true the framework here characterizes the specification error in the the fisher equation as model noise following durlauf and hall 1988 1989a 1989b the noise provides a metric for the specification error for the post war period to october 1979 the variance of the noise is small while after that date it is apparently large that is using a method that contains many previous tests of the fisher effect in explaining nominal in explaining nominal interest rate movements mishkin 1991 has criticized this consensus as reflection a common stochastic trend in inflation and nominal interest rates prior to october 1979 the test here is immune to this criticism as i use the ex post real interest rate as the regressand and show that at least prior to october 1979 it obeys a sationary process

the entrepreneurial orientation performance relationship in private family firms the moderating role of socioemotional wealth drawing on socioemotional wealth sew literature this paper revisits the established entrepreneurial orientation eo performance relationship in a family business context the main idea in entrepreneurship literature is that eo leads to increased firm performance we question this logic in a family business context because family related non financial goals like sew may prevent the firm to reap the fruits of their entrepreneurial efforts specifically we argue that sew engenders inefficiencies that place constraints on the realization of the benefits of entrepreneurship therefore we propose that a high level of sew preservation hinders the transmission of the family firm s eo into positive performance effects to test this hypothesis an empirical study was developed using a sample of 232 belgian private family firms robust linear regression analysis reveals that the positive effect of eo on financial performance decreases as the level of sew preservation increases

opening the black box of the relationship between hrm practices and firm performance a comparison of mne subsidiaries in the usa finland and russia this paper investigates the extent to which different human resource management hrm practices work better in different countries we also try to open the black box between hrm and multinational enterprise mne subsidiary performance by considering mechanisms through which hrm practices affect mne subsidiary performance the study utilizes a unique data set consisting of subsidiaries of 241 mnes operating in russia usa and finland in the partial least square analysis used to examine our hypotheses we demonstrate that different hrm practices are preferable in different countries and that motivation and ability are important mediating variables in the hrm mne subsidiary performance relationship

real interest rates and inflation an ex ante empirical analysis we develop a method of measuring ex ante real interest rates using prices of index and nominal bonds employing this method and newly available data we directly test the fisher hypothesis that the real rate of interest is independent of inflation expectations we find a negative correlation between ex ante real interest rates and expected inflation this contradicts the fisher hypothesis but is consistent with the theories of mundell and tobin darby and feldstein and stulz we also find that nominal interest rates include an inflation risk premium that is positively related to a proxy for inflation uncertainty

trend inflation and the nature of structural breaks in the new keynesian phillips curve in this paper we investigate the nature of structural breaks in inflation by estimating a version of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc in the presence of a unit root in inflation we show that with a unit root in inflation the nkpc implies an unobserved components model that consists of three components a stochastic trend component a component that depends upon current and future forecasts of real economic activity and a stationary component which is potentially serially correlated or a component of inflation that is not explained by the conventional forward looking nkpc our empirical results suggest that with an increase in trend inflation during the great inflation period the response of inflation to real economic activity decreases and the persistence of the inflation gap increases due to an increase in the persistence of the unobserved stationary component these results are in line with the predictions of cogley and sbordone 2008 who show that the coefficients of the nkpc are functions of time varying trend inflation

business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the u s economy average postwar expansions are twice as long as prewar expansions and contractions are one half as long this paper investigates three possible explanations the first explanation is that shocks to the economy have been smaller in the postwar period the second explanation is that the composition of output has shifted from very cyclical sectors to less cyclical sectors the third explanation is that the apparent stabilization is largely spurious and is caused by differences in the way that prewar and postwar business cycle reference dates were chosen by the national bureau of economic research the evidence presented in this paper favors this third explanation copyright 1994 by american economic association

the cyclical component of u s economic activity quarterly data on industrial production and deflated gross national product in the united states from 1947 through 1985 are decomposed into independent nonstationary trend and stationary cycle components using kalman filtering and smoothing techniques estimates of the model parameters imply that at least half of the quarterly innovation in u s economic activity can be attributed to a stationary cyclical component that persists over periods of time as long as five years this finding is inconsistent with the hypothesis that most of the apparent variation in u s economic activity can be attributed to a nonstationary trend component

is there a unit root in the inflation rate evidence from sequential break and panel data models summary using sequential trend break and panel data models we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen oecd countries with individual country tests we find evidence of stationarity in only four of the thirteen countries the results are more striking with the panel data model we can strongly reject the unit root hypothesis both for a panel of all thirteen countries and for a number of smaller panels consisting of as few as three countries the non rejection of the unit root hypothesis for inflation is very fragile to even a small amount of cross section variation 1997 john wiley sons ltd

the economics of options implied inflation probability density functions recently a market in options based on cpi in ation in ation caps and oors has emerged in the us this paper uses quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for in ation we study how these pdfs respond to news announcements and nd that the implied odds of de ation are sensitive to certain macroeconomic news releases we compare the option implied probability densities with those obtained by time series methods and use this information to construct empirical pricing kernels the options implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme in ation outcomes either de ation or high in ation than do their time series counterparts this yields a u shaped empirical pricing kernel with investors having high marginal utility in states of the world characterized by either de ation or high in ation

what does the term structure tell us about future inflation abstract this empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less the term structure of nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but does provide information about the term structure of real interest rates however as maturities lengthen to nine and twelve months the nominal term structure begins to contain information about future inflation but ceases to provide information about the real term structure these results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes at different points in the term structure

price dynamics in foreign currency futures markets abstract nested tests of samuelson s submartingale and martingale models of price behavior in an efficient futures market find significant autocorrelation at low lags in daily changes of log prices for four of ten currency futures contracts satisfying the assumptions of the statistical tests negative serial correlation following large price changes is also found the analysis controls for bias due to institutional limits on daily price movements simulated trading based on out of sample forecasts suggests the dependencies probably could be exploited by traders who are members of the futures exchange to earn net profits greatly exceeding buy and hold

taxable and tax exempt interest rates the link with inflation abstract a single equation model utilizing taxable tax exempt yield spreads is developed to test restrictions required by the darby feldstein inflation tax hypothesis evidence indicates these restrictions generally can be rejected for post accord data and that there is important information in both yields linking them to inflation

the estimation of prewar gross national product methodology and new evidence the paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar gnp taps previously unused data sources and develops new estimates for the periods 1869 1908 and 1869 1928 primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation communications and construction sectors and estimates of the consumer price index new measures of real gnp nominal gnp and the gnp deflator are developed the new estimates of real gnp are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional kuznets kendrick series but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others the new estimates of the gnp deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than those in the postwar period

estimating the fisher effect and the stochastic money growth process this paper demonstrates that a change in the stochastic process generating money can alter the relationships between money and inflation and between inflation and interest rates the extent to which inflation is forecastable is shown to depend significantly on the extent to which money is forecastable thus the greater the persistence and forecastability of money the greater the likelihood of observing a statistically significant fisher effect us data over the 1953 86 period are used to demonstrate that instability in the fisher effect coincides with changes in the stochastic process generating money there is a significantly stronger fisher effect during a subsample in which money and hence inflation are more predictable