a behavioral framework for time diversification the box of factors that we call risk is both too large and too small the box is large enough to include many sometimes conflicting measures of risk variance and semivariance probabilities of losses and their amounts but the box is too small to include factors that affect choices but fall outside the boundaries of risk frames and cognitive errors self control and regret we explore the role of these factors in time diversification the belief that time diversification reduces risk underlies the current drive to invest social security funds in stocks but is such investment prudent we discuss the role of advisors in providing prudent advice changes in the standards of prudence over time the use of time diversification in guiding investors to prudent portfolios and its use in the current debate on social security

some aspects of the taxation of capital gains abstract the analysis of the effects of capital gains taxation requires a careful modelling both of the details of the tax code and the imperfections in the capital market under the standard assumptions concerning perfect capital markets and under the standard idealizations of the tax code there are several strategies by which rational investors can avoid note only all taxes on their capital income but also all taxes on their wage income these strategies leave individuals consumption and bequests in each state of nature and at each date unchanged from what they would have been in the absence of taxes although certain detailed provisions of the tax code may limit the extent to which rational investors can avail themselves of these tax avoidance activities there are ways in a perfect capital market by which the effects of these restrictions can be ameliorated accordingly any analysis of the effects of capital taxation must focus on imperfect capital markets if individuals face limitations on the amounts which they can borrow and or if there are limitations on short sales then under some circumstances there is a locked in effect individuals do not sell securities which they would have sold in the absence of taxation but under other circumstances individuals are induced to sell securities that they otherwise would have held in order to take advantage of the asymmetric treatment of short term losses and long term gains a policy of realizing gains as soon as they become eligible for long term treatment dominates the policy of postponing the realization of capital gains provided the gains are not too large a simple general equilibrium model is constructed within which it is shown that the taxation of capital gains may increase the volatility of asset prices and lead individuals not to trade when they otherwise would while the analysis casts doubt on the significance of the welfare losses resulting from these exchange inefficiencies there are circumstances in which the tax leads to production inefficiencies e g terminating projects at other than the socially optimal date finally we argue that the focus of some recent policy debates on the short run revenue impact of a decrease in the tax rate on capital gains is misplaced even when the short run revenue impact is positive consumption may increase thus exacerbating inflationary pressures and private savings may decrease thus leading to a lower level of investment in the private sector moreover there is some presumption that the long run revenue impact is negative our analysis has some important implications for empirical research in particular it suggests that the impact of the tax is not adequately summarized by a single number such as the effective tax rate representing the average ratio of tax payments to capital gains moreover the impact of the tax cannot be assessed by looking only at reported capital gains and losses

do high taxes lock in capital gains evidence from a dual income tax system the purpose of this paper is to study whether investors willingness to realize capital gains falls when the marginal tax rate on capital gains is raised we use a rich register based panel data set covering almost 8 of the swedish population the results indicate that a 10 increase in capital gains tax rate reduces the number of realizations of capital gains with 8 7 and the realized amount given the decision to realize with 1 9 in addition we find that wealthy individuals seem to respond more to changes in capital gains tax rates than less wealthy

an economic theory of self control the concept of self control is incorporated in a theory of individual intertemporal choice by modeling the individual as an organization the individual at a point in time is assumed to be both a farsighted planner and a myopic doer the resulting conflict is seen to be fundamentally similar to the agency conflict between the owners and managers of a firm both individuals and firms use the same techniques to mitigate the problems which the conflicts create this paper stresses the implications of this agency model and discusses as applications the effect of pensions on saving saving and the timing of income flows and individual discount rates

ex day behavior with dividend preference and limitations to short term arbitrage the case of swedish lottery bonds abstract swedish lottery bonds offer a unique opportunity to study ex day effects in an environment where cash distributions are tax advantaged relative to capital gains thus in the lottery bond market we observe a reversal of the preference for capital gains that researchers have cited as an explanation for the ex day behavior of u s equities further in this market there are barriers to short term arbitrage when prices do reflect the tax preferences of individual investors we find the bonds are priced around the ex day to reflect differential tax rates on income and capital gains consistent with the prevailing tax regimes the bonds consistently experience negative returns over the coupon payment period and in fact often sell at negative yields prior to the cash distribution as one would expect given tax motivated trading between high tax investors who buy prior to the distribution and low tax investors who buy after the distribution

preferred risk habitat of individual investors abstract the preferred risk habitat hypothesis introduced here is that individual investors select stocks whose volatilities are commensurate with their risk aversion the data 1995 2000 holdings of over 20 000 clients at a large german broker are consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis the returns of stocks within each portfolio have remarkably similar volatilities when stocks are sold they are replaced by stocks of similar volatilities and the more risk averse customers indeed hold less volatile stocks greater volatility specialization is associated with lower sharpe ratios primarily because more specialized investors hold fewer stocks and thereby expose themselves to more unsystematic risk

risk rationality and time diversification the validity of the concept of time diversification is the subject of long running debate supporters of the concept argue that risk decreases as investment horizon increases detractors suggest that the concept is false on the face of it we argue that time diversification is consistent both theoretically and empirically with current conceptions of risk and rationality and we also note the implications of changes in investment horizon for stock market behavior

on the risk of stocks in the long run a note in a recent article in this journal zvi bodie used a simplified black scholes model to prove that the cost of insuring a long term stock portfolio against earning less than the risk free rate increases over time bodie believes that this means the risk of investing in common stocks increases over time and that the conventional wisdom of the investment community concerning time diversification is a fallacy bodie s proof relies on a constant standard deviation for common stock over all holding periods this assumption however may not be appropriate for long term stock portfolios this article is not available online

factor and spread analysis of the convertible securities market factor decomposition demonstrates that during certain time periods the convertible market has offered excess returns over a well allocated bond equity portfolio moreover because the magnitude of these returns spans a wide range of values investors can use this valuation framework as a tool for estimating the relative attractiveness of convertibles compared with their underlying equity and fixed income components analysis of yield spreads demonstrates the changing nature of valuation levels embedded in convertible securities a factor analysis of a market weighted equity index underlying convertibles shows that their equity component is well diversified across two major dimensions value versus growth and large cap versus small cap

maintaining consistent global asset views with a little help from euclid global economic and capital market integration has led to a host of new concerns for plan sponsors and money managers in such an environment ensuring consistent capital market expectations policies and strategies among different base currencies is important a primary difficulty is translating risk and correlation estimates from the home currency into any other currency we provide a method for converting risk and correlation views the method makes use of a geometric interpretation of risks and correlations dramatically simplifying the requisite calculations

the mean variance optimization puzzle security portfolios and food portfolios the markowitz mean variance optimization framework presents a puzzle although it is the standard model of portfolio construction investors rarely use it and when used it is constrained so much that portfolios reflect the constraints more than the optimization why do investors dislike unadulterated optimized mean variance portfolios the typical answer focuses on biases introduced by estimation errors more important is the fact that investors goals are quite different from mean variance optimization people care about more than cost and nutrition when they construct their diets they also care about palatability similarly investors care about more than expected returns and variance as they construct their securities portfolios they also care about the investment equivalent of palatability we use an analogy between security portfolios and food portfolios to explore the nature of the gap between intuitively appealing portfolios and mean variance optimized portfolios

traders expectations in asset markets experimental evidence we elicit traders predictions of future price trajectories in repeated experimental markets for a 15 period lived asset we find that individuals beliefs about prices are adaptive and primarily based on past trends in the current and previous markets in which they have participated most traders do not anticipate market downturns the first time they participate in a market and when experienced they typically overestimate the time remaining before market peaks and downturns occur when prices deviate from fundamental values belief data are informative to an observer in predicting the direction of future price movements and the timing of market peaks

massaging mean variance inputs returns from alternative global investment strategies in the 1980s this paper explores the impact of adjustments to the inputs on total returns terminal wealth and portfolio turnover in an unconstrained monthly mean variance mv asset allocation over time it is well known that mv allocations are very sensitive to small forecast errors in the means and covariances this sensitivity is especially pronounced for errors in means one way to control this sensitivity to forecast errors is to use stein estimation we examined three naive applications of stein estimation for six individual country stock indexes five country bond indexes and five cash indexes this study has two major conclusions first any of the suggested adjustments to inputs dominate the results of an unadjusted input mv optimization adjusted input portfolios have higher mean return less variance and greater terminal wealth than unadjusted input portfolios second these improvements become even greater with transaction costs

behavioral finance and its implications for stock price volatility an increasing number of academic and professional articles are being published about research on and potential applications of behavioral finance this article offers a more complete picture of the origin content and rationale behind this emerging area of study than previously presented in the process the traditional dominance in finance of the economic concepts of subjective expected utility and rationality are discussed in addition the article argues that the newer theories of chaos and adaptive decision making which have a place in behavioral finance can help explain the puzzle of stock price volatility

on the sensitivity of mean variance efficient portfolios to changes in asset means some analytical and computational results tbis paper investigates the sensitivity of meanvariance mv efficientportfolios to changes in the means of individual assets when only a budget constraint is imposed on the investment problem the analytical results indicate that an mv efficient portfolio s weights mean and variance can be extremely sensitive to cbanges in asset means when nonnegativity constraints are also imposed on the problem the computational results confirm that a positively weigbted mv efficient portfolio s weigbts are extremely sensitive to cbanges in asset means but the portfolio s returns are not a surprisingly small increase in the mean of just one asset drives balf the securities from the portfolio yet the portfolio s expected return and standard deviation are virtually uncbanged this paper supersedes should investors hold well diversified portfolios financial support from the natural science and engineering research council of canada is gratefully acknowledged we also acknowledge the most capable assistance of ruth cornale simon ng jean marc potier and frederick shen the paper was presented at simon fraser university and the western finance association meetings in san diego we thank the participants especially stephen brown john herzog john heaney ray koopman and bruce lehmann and the editors jon ingersoll and chester spatt for

the effects of taxation on the selling of corporate stock and the realization of capital gains this study provides the first econometric analysis of the effect of taxation on the realization of capital gains the analysis thus extends and complements the earlier study by feldstein and yitzhaki 1978 of the effect of taxation on the selling of corporate stock the present analysis using a large new body of data obtained from individual tax returns supports the earlier finding that corporate stock sales are quite sensitive to tax rates and then shows that the effect on the realization of capital gains is even stronger

optimal security design how should new securities be designed traditional theories have little to say on this the literature on capital structure and general equilibrium theories with incomplete markets take the securities firms issue as exogenous this paper explicitly incorporates the transaction costs of issuing securities and develops a model where the instruments that are traded are chosen optimally and the economy s market structure is endogenous among other things it is shown that the firm s income stream should be split so that in every state all payoffs are allocated to the security held by the group that values them most this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

dynamic revenue estimation this paper considers the question of adopting dynamic revenue estimation methods which would incorporate the predicted macroeconomic effects of policies it describes the current revenue estimation process and how these estimates are used in the formation of policy it then evaluates this process as an exercise in forecasting considering not only its methodology but also its performance this evaluation illustrates some of the difficulties that would accompany attempts to use dynamic methods finally the paper relates the choice among different revenue estimation procedures to the political process and the use to which the revenue estimates are put

time diversification and estimation risk the recommendation that investors with long investment horizons tilt their portfolios toward stocks is commonplace we used a nonparametric bootstrap approach to investigate whether in a mean variance efficient portfolio the weights for u s stocks and u s t bills vary in a systematic manner with investment horizon this approach allowed us to analyze the impact of estimation risk on the optimal weights of stocks and fixed income securities the results show that an investor can gain from time diversification the weights for stocks in an efficient portfolio were significantly larger for long investment horizons than a one year horizon

irrational exuberance and option smiles disagreement among investors is pervasive some investors see a trend and predict continuation others see the same trend and predict reversal some investors overreact others underreact i explain how disagreement can and does cause markets to be inefficient and i argue that option markets are particularly vulnerable in this respect the volatility smile associated with index options is one manifestation of inefficiency stemming from heterogeneous beliefs as part of the argument i discuss an event study about irrational exuberance the term alan greenspan chair of the u s federal reserve board used in late 1996 to describe stock market sentiment to study this event i combined the information gleaned from option pricing data with other information about market sentiment to assess the impact of heterogeneous beliefs on market efficiency

tax reform theory and practice abstract the tax reform act of 1986 is the most significant piece of tax legislation enacted since the income tax was converted to a mass tax during world war ii after decades of erosion the indi

the cross over effect of irrational sentiments in housing commercial property and stock markets abstract this paper examines the dependence in irrational sentiments across housing commercial property and stock markets our empirical results document an important and lasting impact that commercial real estate sentiment and returns have on broader financial markets we also show that the cross over effects of market sentiments are not consistent with cross over effects in market returns sentiments and returns in housing and stock markets exhibit strong dependence on other markets whereas they evolve independently in commercial real estate while housing and stock market returns respond to irrational sentiment in commercial real estate markets the opposite is not true

an experiment on risk taking and evaluation periods does the period over which individuals evaluate outcomes influence their investment in risky assets results from this study show that the more frequently returns are evaluated the more risk averse investors will be the results are in line with the behavioral hypothesis of myopic loss aversion which assumes that people are myopic in evaluating outcomes over time and are more sensitive to losses than to gains the results have relevance for the equity premium puzzle and also for the marketing strategies of fund managers

on the risk of stocks in the long run a resolution to the debate in response to the ongoing debate in this journal about whether the risk of investments in the stock market is increased or decreased by lengthening the investment period we show that bodie s attempt to identify market risk with the price of put options leads to a circular argument within the workings of arbitrage free option pricing models thus bodie failed to rebut the conventional view that longer investment horizons may be thought of as less risky bodie s put option prices are relevant however to determining market prices of stock investment insurance

the time diversification controversy some financial theorists reject the widely held practitioner belief in time diversification the theorists argue that given serially uncorrelated returns holding a risky asset over longer periods of time will not reduce its inherent riskiness the argument is supported by references to economic models of risk aversion such as mean variance optimization and expected utility theory mean variance optimizers however are not indifferent to investment horizon and investment horizon indifference is only a special case within expected utility theory furthermore to the extent that models reject the notion of time diversification they are inadequate because they are inconsistent with common sense measures of risk at very long horizons

misconceptions about optimal equity allocation and investment horizon our analysis and results offer some resolution to a debate that has continued for 30 years we demonstrate that in contrast to prior claims no conflict exists between the implications of economic models of choice under uncertainty and a rational investor preference for larger equity allocations at longer investment horizons using examples of expected utility of wealth and mean variance utility we show that the effect of a longer horizon on risky asset allocation is consistent with increasing or decreasing optimal equity allocations even under the assumption of constant relative risk aversion

experimental tests of the separation theorem and the capital asset pricing model a computer controlled multistage portfolio selection task was devised to test experimentally basic assumptions underlying the separation theorem and the capital asset pricing model although most of the subjects diversified among the three risky assets the introduction of a riskless asset did not have the effect predicted by the separation theorem nor were the subjects affected by systematic changes in the variance covariance matrix of the risky returns however performance improved as the reward was increased tenfold the capital asset pricing model capm proposed by william sharpe 1964 john lintner 1965 and jan mossin 1966 has been the predominant normative as well as positive theory for determining assets returns and prices in financial markets the capm has a wide range of implications for various financial issues including the allocation of risky assets price predictions performance indices and market efficiency tests as well as tools for corporate finance decisions such as capital structure costs of financial sources and prices of new issues during the last decade numerous theoretical studies have examined and extended the capm a most recent development is the

the nature of market growth risk and return in the model of asset appreciation advanced here the market economy and the market of asset claims on the economy are modeled as organic or exponential growth processes similar to those commonly seen in nature and the biological sciences in dempsey s organic growth model of appreciation dogma investors have a log wealth utility function within the framework the market risk premium is derived as the premium that balances supply and demand among risky and risk free assets the model indicates that the premium is less than is indicated by ex post returns observed on u s stock markets the model is consistent however with empirical observations that idiosyncratic risk and small company size are rewarded by the markets in terms of the model investors choose to allocate their portfolios long in both the risky market and the risk free asset furthermore their portfolios are independent of the investment time horizon

behavioral portfolio theory we develop a positive behavioral portfolio theory bpt and explore its implications for portfolio construction and security design the optimal portfolios of bpt investors resemble combinations of bonds and lottery tickets consistent with friedman and savage s 1948 observation we compare the bpt efficient frontier with the mean variance efficient frontier and show that in general the two frontiers do not coincide optimal bpt portfolios are also different from optimal capm portfolios in particular the capm twofund separation does not hold in bpt we present bpt in a single mental account version bpt sa and a multiple mental account version bpt ma bpt sa investors integrate their portfolios into a single mental account while bpt ma investors segregate their port folios into several mental accounts bpt ma portfolios resemble layered pyramids where layers are associated with aspirations we explore a two layer portfolio where the low aspiration layer is designed to avoid poverty while the high aspiration layer is designed for a shot at riches

put prices and pen participation rates at longer horizons is equity risk in the eye of the beholder two recent articles in the financial analysts journal address the question of how equity risk changes as investment horizons grow longer both use analyses based on derivatives pricing examples but draw exactly opposite conclusions we reexamine these authors arguments and find the logic of both analyses is flawed we demonstrate that the use of specialized put option prices as proxies for equity risk yields ambiguous conclusions about equity risk changes at longer investment horizons with added information about an investor s required minimum rate of return however we can specify the change in equity risk at longer horizons with these put prices

asset allocation without unobservable parameters some asset allocation advice for long term investors is based on maximization of expected utility most commonly used investor utilities require measurement of a risk aversion parameter appropriate to the particular investor but accurate assessment of this parameter is problematic at best maximization of expected utility is thus not only conceptually difficult for clients to understand but also difficult to implement other asset allocation advice is based on minimizing the probability of falling short of a particular investor s long term return target or of an investable benchmark this approach is easier to explain and implement but it has been criticized by advocates of expected utility these seemingly disparate criteria can be reconciled by measuring portfolio returns relative to the target or benchmark and then eliminating the usual assumption that the utility s risk aversion parameter is not also determined by maximization of expected utility financial advisors should not be persuaded by advo

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

investments with downside insurance and the issue of time diversification of two insurance policies that guarantee the same minimum rate of return on a portfolio and differ only in their time horizons which is riskier this study shows that if the minimum rate is lower than the risk free rate and if the risk is measured by the cost of insurance then the degree of risk is not a monotonic function of the policy s time horizon for every positive level of concession rate defined as the risk free rate minus the insured rate the cost of such insurance peaks at a finite time horizon this peak cost horizon is typically between 5 and 15 years the higher the concession rate or the lower the volatility of the insured portfolio the shorter this peak cost time horizon is thus although a 5 year insurance policy can be much riskier than a 1 year policy it can also be riskier than a 30 year policy

permanent versus transitory tax effects and the realization of capital gains recent empirical work on captial gains implies that realizations are highly sensitive to marginal tax rates because they are based on cross section data however these estimates cannot distinguish between permanent responses to tax rate changes and the timing of realizations to take advantage of the normal fluctuations in any individual s tax rates over time the purpose of this paper is to distinguish transitory from permanent tax effects by analyzing panel data for taxpayers controlling for permanent and transitory income and other variables the estimates suggest both transitory and permanent effects although the permanent tax rate effect is not significant in all cases

do electric vehicle incentives matter evidence from the 50 u s states abstract we estimate the effectiveness of policy incentives for adoption of electric vehicles evs in the 50 u s states we employ a rich dataset of semi annual state level new ev vehicle registrations by make and model from 2010 to 2015 and state level policy instruments that could affect new ev model registrations we construct two measures of policy one which aggregates policy instruments that can be assigned a value and a second that aggregates those without explicit values using a within model difference in difference estimator with high dimensional fixed effects we find that a 1000 increase in the value of a state s model specific ev policies increases registrations of that model within the state by 5 11

an asset allocation puzzle this paper examines popular advice on portfolio allocation among cash bonds and stocks it documents that this advice is inconsistent with the mutual fund separation theorem which states that all investors should hold the same composition of risky assets in contrast to the theorem popular advisors recommend that aggressive investors hold a lower ratio of bonds to stocks than conservative investors the paper explores various possible explanations of this puzzle and finds them unsatisfactory copyright 1997 by american economic association

how does the presence of hov lanes affect plug in electric vehicle adoption in california a generalized propensity score approach abstract policymakers have sought to spur consumer adoption of advanced clean vehicles by granting them single occupancy access to high occupancy vehicle hov lanes we offer the first evaluation of these policies that accommodates geographic variability in the magnitude of this policy s treatment effect focusing on the outcome of plug in electric vehicle pev adoption in california we employ a generalized propensity score approach that allows for continuous rather than binary treatment effects we estimate a state wide dose response curve to show that access to 6 20 and 100 miles of nearby hov lanes leads to 1 3 and 10 additional pev registrations in a census tract the lower end of our 95 confidence interval implies that at least one quarter of california pev registrations during 2010 2013 were a result of the hov lane policy we identify geographically specific marginal policy effects that are smaller in los angeles but relatively larger in san diego and sacramento

impact of the financial crisis on bank run risk danger of the days after abstract we examine the developments of depositor knowledge attitudes and behavior throughout the recent financial crisis and discuss their impact on bank run risk based on a self collected data set surveying depositors before 2007 at 2008 and after the peak of the crisis 2009 we observe a worrying dynamic pattern at the peak depositors knew more about deposit insurance placed more importance on deposit security and slightly raised their deposits however in the aftermath of the crisis the enhanced depositor knowledge proved to be non permanent while the increased importance of deposit security and the exposure of depositors persisted the proportion of completely uninformed strongly involved and highly exposed depositors who carry the highest risk of triggering a bank run was reduced around the peak of the crisis but rebounded strongly afterwards even exceeding pre crisis levels these findings point to a higher bank run risk in the aftermath than during the financial crisis

optimal taxation and optimal tax systems the theory of optimal taxation has for the pas two decades been the reigning normative approach of taxation this paper argues that in its current state optimal tax theory is incomplete as a guide to action concerning many critical issues in tax policy it is incomplete because it has not yet come to terms with taxation as a system of coercively collecting revenues from individuals who will tend to resist the coercive nature of collection taxes implies that the resource cost of implementing a tax system have been and will continue to be a critical determinant of appropriate tax policy the paper first presents the three cornerstone propositions of optimal tax theory and then it discusses the influence of these propositions on recent tax policy developments it concludes by sketching an alternative to optimal taxation called the theory of optimal tax systems which embraces the insights of optimal taxation but also considers the technology of raising taxes and the constraints placed upon tax policy by that technology the optimal tax systems perspective is shown to shed light on the choice of tax instruments the problem of tax evasion and the appropriate tax treatment of capital income this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

on the risk of stocks in the long run a familiar proposition is that investing in common stocks is less risky the longer an investor plans to hold them if this proposition were true then the cost of insuring against earning less than the risk free rate of interest should decline as the investment horizon lengthens this paper shows that the opposite is true even if stock returns are mean reverting in the long run the case for young people investing more heavily than older people in stocks cannot therefore rest solely on the long run properties of stock returns for guarantors of money fixed annuities the proposition that stocks in their portfolios are a better hedge the longer the maturity of their obligations is unambiguously wrong

policy watch cutting capital gains taxes from 1922 to 1986 long term capital gains were taxed at lower rates than other income generally by allowing a portion of long term capital gains to be excluded from taxable income while taxing capital gains at the same rates as other income has been hailed by some as a major accomplishment of tax reform it has been criticized by others as one of its main flaws as a result there have been proposals each year since 1986 to restore some type of capital gains preference these proposals have sparked a lively debate centered on three main questions would reducing the capital gains tax lower or raise federal revenues who benefits most from cutting the capital gains tax would lower tax rates on capital gains improve economic performance

portfolio insurance and prospect theory investors popularity and optimal design of capital protected financial products abstract portfolio insurance strategies are used on both the institutional and the retail side of the asset management industry while standard utility theory struggles to provide an explanation this study justifies the popularity of portfolio insurance strategies in a behavioral finance context we run monte carlo simulations as well as historical simulations for popular portfolio insurance strategies and benchmark strategies in order to evaluate the outcomes using cumulative prospect theory our simulation results indicate that most portfolio insurance strategies are the preferred investment strategy for a prospect theory investor moreover the analysis provides insights into how portfolio insurance products should be designed and structured to meet the preferences of prospect theory investors as accurately as possible

irrational exuberance and option smiles disagreement among investors is pervasive some investors see a trend and predict continuation others see the same trend and predict reversal some investors overreact others underreact i explai

time diversification definitions and some closed form solutions abstract we establish general conditions under which younger investors should invest a larger proportion of their wealth in risky assets than older ones in the finite horizon dynamic setting we show that such phenomenon known as time diversification can occur in the presence of human wealth guaranteed consumption or mean reverting stock returns we formalize two alternative notions of time diversification commonly confounded in the literature analytic solutions are provided for both time series and cross sectional forms of time diversification to our best knowledge this paper is the first to solve in closed form the hedging demand for a cara investor with inter temporal consumption and a finite horizon facing mean reverting expected returns our results indicate that horizon can have a significant effect on the portfolio demand of a cara investor due to inter temporal hedging

the effects of fiscal stimulus evidence from the 2009 cash for clunkers program we evaluate the impact of the 2009 cash for clunkers program on short and medium run auto purchases our empirical strategy exploits variation across u s cities in ex ante exposure to the program as measured by the number of clunkers in the city as of summer 2008 we find that the program induced the purchase of an additional 370 000 cars in july and august 2009 however we find strong evidence of reversal high clunker counties bought fewer autos in the 10 months after the program expired which offset most of the initial purchases we find no evidence of an effect on employment house prices or household default rates in cities with higher exposure to the program jel codes h20 e62 copyright 2012 oxford university press

time diversification perspectives from option pricing theory despite repeated theoretical arguments to the contrary many investment professionals subscribe to the principle of time diversification this principle states that equity investments become less risky if held for longer periods of time we apply option pricing theory to the question of how the investment horizon affects equity risk financially engineered securities that guarantee a minimum return allow for greater equity market participation if the investor commits to a longer time horizon in other words the fair cost of insuring a minimum return in terms of foregone market participation is lower for longer horizons the lower cost of risk reduction suggests that risk itself is lower consistent with the pervasive practitioner belief in time diversification

fixed rate or index linked mortgages from the borrower s point of view a note when will borrowers choose fixed rate mortgages and when will they prefer index linked mortgages baesel and biger bb 1 proposed a model that answers this question according to the bb model a borrower s preference depends on the difference in interest rates between the fixed and index linked mortgages and on the covariance between the borrower s labor income and the rate of inflation the purpose of this note is to propose a more complete model of borrower preferences the novelty of the model lies in the inclusion of the value of the house net of mortgage obligation in the terminal wealth of the borrower this inclusion leads to differences between this model and the bb model in the identification of the cases where borrowers will prefer fixed or index linked mortgages

bullish or bearish the sentiment of newsletter writers whether bullish or bearish does not forecast future returns but past returns and the volatility of those returns do affect sentiment high returns over four week periods are associated with a migration of newsletter writers from the bearish camp into the bullish camp high returns over periods of 26 and 52 weeks are associated with nervous bullishness a migration of newsletter writers from the bearish camp into both the bullish and the correction camps high volatility instead of scaring newsletter writers into bearishness reduces the effects of both positive and negative returns on sentiment also contrary to a popular hypothesis the crash of 1987 had no significant effect on the pattern of forecasts