do firms differ much with finn profitability data for a cross section of geographic markets it is possible to determine the relative importance of firm and market effects on profitability analysis of variance from a panel of multihank holditig companies in texas suggests that finn effects are more important than market effects in determining profitability and that the magnitudes of the effects vary over time in a 1985 article schmalensee takes a new approach to analysis of the structure conduct performance paradigm schmalensee chooses a purely descriptive approach to distinguish among the classical tradition of bain 1956 which takes markets as the basic unit of analysis with a particular focus on market concentration the revisionist views of demsetz 1973 and peltzman 1977 who view the observed relation between profitability and concentration as reflecting underlying inter firm profitability differences and the managerial view that profitability is determined by firm wide management practices but not necessarily by differences in market share this descriptive approach has two advantages over a structural analysis a descriptive analysis avoids imposition of the troublesome maintained hypotheses inherent in structural models further as scott and pascoe 1986 point out the explanatory power of structural models is generally only a small fraction of that of descriptive models

on the role of small models in macrodynamics abstract this paper focuses on the role of small models in macrodynamics it discusses the insights that i believe these models offer and the extent to which they can address some of the complex issues such as heterogeneity and interactions among agents that are receiving increasing attention in the literature i comment on what i view to be the most productive role for numerical simulations and finally offer some brief comments in defense of the state of modern macroeconomic theory in light of the criticism it has received as a result of the recent financial crisis

dynamic predictor selection in a new keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations abstract this paper introduces dynamic predictor selection into a new keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations and examines its implications for monetary policy we extend branch and mcgough 2009 by incorporating endogenous time varying predictor proportions along the lines of brock and hommes 1997 we find that periodic orbits and complex dynamics may arise even if the model under rational expectations has a unique stationary solution the qualitative nature of the non linear dynamics turns on the interaction between hawkishness of the government s policy and the extrapolative behavior of non rational agents

meta analysis in model implementation choice sets and the valuation of air quality improvements this research illustrates how the methods developed for meta analysis can serve to document and summarize voluminous information derived from repeated sensitivity analyses our application is to the sensitivity of welfare estimates derived from discrete choice models to assumptions about the choice set these assumptions affect welfare estimates through both the estimated parameters of the model and conditional on the parameters the substitution among alternatives in our specific application the evaluation is in terms of estimated benefits of air quality improvements in los angeles based on discrete choices of neighborhood and housing copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

sources of superior performance market share versus industry effects in the u s brewing industry using financial measures of performance we investigate the sources of value creation in the u s brewing industry between 1969 and 1979 we find that market share gains in this industry at this time are not correlated with changes in value and that the performance of individual leading firms is highly correlated our interpretation is that the success of market share building strategies depends critically on specific industry conditions specifically in the absence of fundamental shifts in the relative resource positions of individual firms share gains may come at too high a price in addition the research shows that intra industry correlations in returns may result from excessive competition rather than collusion

chaotic interest rate rules a growing empirical and theoretical literature argues in favor of specifying monetary policy in the form of taylor type interest rate feedback rules that is rules whereby the nominal interest rate is set as an increasing function of inflation with a slope greater than one around an intended inflation target this paper shows that such rules can easily lead to chaotic dynamics the result is obtained for feedback rules that depend on contemporaneous or expected future inflation the existence of chaotic dynamics is established analytically and numerically in the context of calibrated economies the battery of fiscal policies that has recently been advocated for avoiding global indeterminacy induced by taylor type interest rate rules such as liquidity traps are shown to be unlikely to provide a remedy for the complex dynamics characterized in this paper

the use and abuse of meta analysis in environmental and natural resource economics an assessment motivated by the 2006 report of a work group appointed by the environmental protection agency epa this paper examines the present state of meta analysis in environmental economics and offers recommendations for its future use to this end we summarize and assess 140 meta analyses from 125 published and unpublished studies covering 17 topical categories in environmental and resource economics first we provide several generic meta analysis models as reference points and discuss major estimation issues five econometric issues are identified as part of a complete analysis 1 sample selection criteria 2 basic data summary 3 primary data heterogeneity 4 heteroskedasticity and 5 non independence of multiple observations from primary studies second a tabular summary is presented for the 140 meta analyses with respect to estimation methods third a narrative summary is presented for 19 meta analyses including the three value of statistical life studies examined by the epa work group and one analysis from each of 16 other categories fourth we offer a set of best practice guidelines for future meta analyses in this and other areas of economics last the paper comments on the use of meta analytic methods for benefit transfers of environmental values

the two faces of competition dynamic resourcefulness and the hypercompetitive shift competition in the american economy has fundamentally changed over the last few decades from static to dynamic this study labels this important change the hypercompetitive shift and documents it across 200 industries of the us manufacturing sector during i958 to 1991 for industries that undergo a hypercompetitive shift there is an increase in the cross firm variance in performance and a rotation in the value rivalry relationship from a negative association to an inverted u as a consequence of these competitive changes the strategic focus of firms shifts from careful exploitation of given highly durable strategic assets to the steady creation of many new rapidly depreciable ones the key driver of hypercompetitive shift is the dynamic resourcefulness of an industry or the ease with which new strategic assets can be created determinants of dynamic resourcefulness include the dynamism of related transactors notably consumers and suppliers the knowledge base of the industry and structural condi

does corporate strategy matter a revisionist view that corporate strategy does not matter has gained considerable influence in recent years this view largely stems from empirical results of early variance decomposition studies that found negligible corporate effects associated with profitability differences between businesses our analysis of the variance decomposition literature shows this view to be incorrect not only do the studies as a group show that factors at the corporate level of organizations contribute to profitability differences but also evidence suggests that factors specifically associated with corporate strategy contribute to corporate effects corporate strategy in fact does matter copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

the intertemporal stability of the concentration margins relationship using a longitudinal data base we find that there has been a substantial narrowing of the spread between the price cost margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries including measures of macroeconomic fluctuations into standard price cost margin regressions we find significant differences in cyclical behavior across market structure we also explore a possible explanation unionization for differences in cyclical behavior finally we investigate the degree to which our results are affected by the potential simultaneity of concentration advertising and the price cost margin

optimal timing problems in environmental economics abstract because of the uncertainties and irreversibilities that are often inherent in environmental degradation its prevention and its economic consequences environmental policy design can involve important problems of timing i use a simple two period model to illustrate these optimal timing problems and their implications for environmental policy i then lay out and solve a continuous time model of policy adoption in which the policy itself entails sunk costs and environmental damage is irreversible the model generalizes earlier work in that it includes two stochastic state variables one captures uncertainty over environmental change and the other captures uncertainty over the social costs of environmental damage solutions of the model are used to show the implications of these two types of uncertainty for the timing of policy adoption

is tourism firm competitiveness driven by different internal or external specific factors new empirical evidence from spain abstract the quest to understand the multilevel antecedents of competitiveness has led to a separation of approaches on one side of the question are the environment theories that analyze the structural characteristics of the general and competitive environment on the other side are the resource based view and its extensions that highlight firm specific resources and capabilities as the main basis of firms competitiveness however in recent years the nature of competition and shifting economic conditions have given rise to new theoretical approaches that complement the assumptions underlying both environmental and firm theories specifically this study contributes by examining the regional environment effect the district effect and the strategic group effect through a study of 364 spanish tourism firms this research explores the relative importance of distinct external forces such as the general environment or country effect the regional effect the competitive environment or industry effect the district effect and internal factors such as the firm s tangible resources capabilities and strategy selection the results demonstrate that firms capabilities are more important than environment effects and tangible resources

learning heterogeneity and complexity in the new keynesian model abstract we present a new keynesian model in which a fraction n of agents are fully rational and a fraction 1 n of agents are bounded rational after deriving a simple reduced form we demonstrate that the taylor condition is sufficient for determinacy and stability both when the proportion of fully rational agents is held fixed and when it is allowed to vary according to reinforcement learning however this result relies on the absence of persistence in the monetary policy rule and we demonstrate that the taylor condition is not sufficient for determinacy and stability in the presence of interest rate smoothing for monetary policy rules that imply indeterminacy we demonstrate the existence of limit cycles via hopf bifurcation and explore a rational route to randomness numerically our results support the broader literature on behavioural new keynesian models in which the taylor condition is known to be a useful guide to monetary policy despite not always being sufficient for determinacy and or stability

circumstance and choice the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies the experience of countries in transition from a planned to a market oriented economy has varied greatly the clearest differences are between the east asian countries china and vietnam and the countries of central and eastern europe cee and the former soviet union fsu china and vietnam have contained inflation and benefited from continued high growth in gdp since the beginning of their reforms while all cee and fsu countries have experienced large declines in output and most have experienced hyperinflation but even in cee and the fsu differences are marked some countries have lost over half of their gdp and growth performance in a number of countries is still poor while others are growing strongly some are still suffering from high inflation while others have successfully reduced annual inflation what determines this divergence of outcomes across transition countries no study so far has analyzed the interaction of all factors including initial conditions political change and reforms in a unified framework including cee the fsu china and vietnam the authors examine these broader interactions but focus first on the role of initial conditions such as initial macroeconomic distortions and differences in economic structure and institutions which have been emphasized less in the literature they find that initial conditions and economic policy jointly determine the large differences in economic performance among the 28 transition economies in the sample initial conditions dominate in explaining inflation but economic liberalization is the most important factor determining differences in growth but reform policy choices are not exogenous they depend in turn on both initial conditions and political reform with political reform the most important determinant of the speed and comprehensiveness of economic liberalization other findings provide additional insight into these relationships results show that liberalization has a negative contemporaneous impact but a stronger positive effect on performance over time the results also show that macroeconomic and structural distortions are negatively related to both policy and performance regarding the former unfavorable initial conditions discourage policy reforms but do not diminish their effectiveness once they are implemented the authors find some evidence that the influence of initial conditions diminishes over time this is in part because many of the initial conditions are themselves modified in the course of transition monetary overhangs are dissipated through inflation industrial overhang is eroded as plants shut down and market memory returns through experience

is meta analysis a noah s ark for non market valuation this paper describes meta analytical methods as they have been applied to non market valuation research these studies have been used to review and synthesize literature and more recently in benefit transfer this second use imposes a higher standard on the consistency in economic concepts being summarized and in the resources included in a meta analysis to meet this need the paper proposes and illustrates a structural framework using a generalized method of moments estimator to estimate the parameters of a preference function with the benefits estimates usually encountered in meta analytic summaries

man bites dog business cycles the newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it is and this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact signals that are more likely to be observed after unusual events may increase both uncertainty and disagreement among agents in a simple business cycle model such signals can explain why we observe i occasional large changes in macro economic aggregate variables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals ii persistent periods of high macroeconomic volatility and iii a positive correlation between absolute changes in macro variables and the cross sectional dispersion of survey expectations

valuing non market valuation studies using meta analysis a demonstration using estimates of willingness to pay for water quality improvements abstract a common refrain in the environmental economics literature is the need for additional estimates of environmental and natural resource values yet economists have paid little formal attention to the value of information voi provided by non market valuation studies and whether this value justifies the cost we develop a novel voi model to quantify the benefit of non market valuation studies conducted to expand the body of value estimates in the literature and hence available for use in policy analyses the approach is designed to capitalize on information available through preexisting valuation meta data and can be applied to any valuation meta regression that is suitable to inform policy decisions we illustrate the approach for a prototype nationwide water quality improvement policy in the united states assuming that policy benefits are evaluated using benefit transfer based on a meta regression model of willingness to pay our results suggest that when evaluating nationwide water quality regulations with uncertain net benefits the voi from a typical water quality valuation study will almost certainly exceed the cost we also examine how voi varies with study design features and information gaps in the literature thereby illustrating how the approach can inform research priorities

expectations learning and business cycle fluctuations this paper explores an alternative theory based on learning dynamics in the con text of an otherwise standard stochastic growth model we consider an environment in which households and firms have an incomplete model of the macroeconomy knowing only their own objectives constraints and beliefs agents are optimizing have a completely specified belief system but do not know the equilibrium map ping between primitive disturbances the aggregate state of the economy and mar ket clearing prices by extrapolating from historical patterns in observed data they approximate this mapping to forecast variables that are exogenous to their decision problems such as the rental rate of capital and the real wage this belief structure has the property that beliefs affect the true data generating process of the economy which in turn affects belief formation the economy is therefore self referential shifts in beliefs about future returns to labor and capital affect current market clear ing prices which in turn can reinforce beliefs in this environment current prices can become less informative about future economic conditions generating fluctuations in real activity this kind of mechanism driving business cycle fluctuations is found in early writ ings on macroeconomic dynamics for example alfred c pigou 1927 on page 122 writes

markets vs management what drives profitability this study addresses the issue of the relative degree of variance in roa accounted for by industry corporate and sbu effects while controlling for the business cycle and the interaction between the business cycle and industry two key articles schmalensee 1985 and rumelt 1991 are discussed in detail research results on a recent data base compustat using variance components analysis varcomp are presented that not only confirm most of the rumelt 1991 findings but also suggest the existence of a corporate effect heretofore undetected

transferring environmental value estimates issues and alternatives abstract environmental value transfer needs to be understood in the context of scientific information use in general this provides a different perspective upon the reasons why benefit transfer in particular appears so controversial and raises concerns over the limited types of validity testing being undertaken by those supporting such applications as ecosystem services valuation another key issue which we emphasise is the unintentional challenge to standard economic theory raised by the models used to conduct value transfers existing value transfer practice reveals the need for a more inclusive approach if environmental values are to be addressed we argue that there are robust alternative means for including multiple environmental values in decision processes these cannot be dismissed out of hand and analysts should be expanding their understanding of the available approaches which include attitude and norm measures multi criteria analysis and participatory deliberative institutions

reducing barriers in future benefit transfers needed improvements in primary study design and reporting abstract original research provides many social benefits including additions to our stock of knowledge benefit transfer is a formal process whereby our stock of knowledge rather than original research is used to inform decisions any shortcoming in this stock directly affects our ability to conduct valid and reliable benefit transfers this paper discusses three general criteria that are necessary for valid benefit transfers and how original research designs and reporting of results unnecessarily constrain the potential of benefit transfers we make several suggestions regarding how original research through improved design and reporting might increase the validity and reliability of benefit transfers we also recommend that repositories for original research surveys and data be developed to insure long term availability of study information

u s canada trade liberalization and mnc production location using confidential firm level panel data from the bureau of economic analysis we examine how the bilateral trade flows of u s multinational corporations mncs and their canadian affiliates responded to u s canadian tariff reductions from 1983 to 1992 we find that canadian affiliate sales to the united states are negatively correlated with canadian tariffs but u s parent sales to canadian affiliates have little association with canadian tariffs these results contradict the notion that canadian tariff reductions would lead to a hollowing out of canadian manufacturing we also find substantial heterogeneity in mnc responses to tariff changes within narrowly defined manufacturing industries overall bilateral trade liberalization is trade creating as u s mncs integrated their north american production such that canadian affiliates increased sales to the united states and reduced domestic sales

a meta analysis of contingent valuation forest studies abstract forest ecosystems provide a variety of valuable goods and services this paper presents a meta analysis of forest studies using the contingent valuation cv method to value the provision of forest values around the world in this meta analysis we estimate the marginal value of different management programs that provide a variety of forest goods and services our results show that willingness to pay wtp estimates for forest management programs are sensitive to the program s objectives particularly when linked to the provision of recreational services other variables such as the type of forest location survey mode or the type of respondent were also found to significantly affect the wtp estimates

successful in the long run a meta regression analysis of persistent firm profits we study the profit persistence literature by applying meta regression analysis mra to a set of 36 empirical papers which analyze the persistence of abnormal firm profits over time the analyzed literature provides evidence for a mediocre degree of persistence in abnormal profits an initial analysis of the distribution of reported profit persistence estimates reveals some degree of excess variation this points toward publication bias that favors significant results independent of their algebraic sign the mra however reveals that publication bias is particularly favoring results that indicate profit persistence and thus contradict the neoclassical model of perfect competition moreover the mra enables to control for heterogeneity driven by the study design we find that the analyzed country developing vs developed the applied econometric approach as well as the analyzed period of time are significant drivers of heterogeneity in reported persistence estimates

meta analysis benefit transfer and methodological covariates implications for transfer error meta regression models in the valuation literature demonstrate that willingness to pay estimates vary according to methodological factors neither theory nor characteristics of policy sites dictate the treatment of associated covariates within benefit transfer however and the literature provides few insights into potential impacts of common empirical treatments this paper introduces a method to systematically characterize the impact of methodological variables on transfer error using a repeated leave one out convergent validity framework the analysis contrasts errors for a hypothetical ideal case in which correct methodological covariate treatments are known to the realistic case in which the correct treatment is unknown results indicate that the common assumption of mean values for methodological covariates leads to only a modest increase in mean transfer error relative to that found in the hypothetical ideal case

determinacy learnability and monetary policy inertia we show how monetary policy inertia can help alleviate problems of indeterminacy and non existence of stationary equilibrium observed for some commonly studied monetary policy rules we also find that inertia promotes learnability of equilibrium the context is a simple forward looking model of the macroeconomy widely used in the rapidly expanding literature in this area we conclude that this might be an important reason why central banks in the industrialized economies display considerable inertia when adjusting monetary policy in response to changing economic conditions

macroeconomies as constructively rational games real world decision makers are forced to be locally constructive that is their decisions are necessarily constrained by their interaction networks information beliefs and physical states this study transforms an otherwise standard dynamic macroeconomic model into an open ended dynamic game by requiring consumers and firms with intertemporal utility and profit objectives to be locally constructive tested locally constructive decision processes for the consumers and firms range from simple reactive reinforcement learning to adaptive dynamic programming adp computational experiments are used to explore macroeconomic performance under alternative decision process combinations relative to a social planner benchmark solution a key finding is that simpler decision processes can outperform more sophisticated decision processes such as adp however memory length permitting some degree of adaptive foresight is critical for good performance

enhanced geospatial validity for meta analysis and environmental benefit transfer an application to water quality improvements meta regression models are commonly used within benefit transfer to estimate willingness to pay wtp for environmental quality improvements theory suggests that these estimates should be sensitive to geospatial factors including resource scale market extent and the availability of substitutes and complements valuation meta regression models addressing the quantity of non market commodities sometimes incorporate spatial variables that proxy for a subset of these effects however meta analyses of wtp for environmental quality generally omit geospatial factors such as these leading to benefit transfers that are invariant to these factors this paper reports on a meta regression model for water quality benefit transfer that incorporates spatially explicit factors predicted by theory to influence wtp the metadata are drawn from stated preference studies that estimate per household wtp for water quality changes in united states water bodies and combine primary study information with extensive geospatial data from external sources results find that geospatial variables are associated with significant wtp variations as predicted by theory and that inclusion of these variables reduces transfer errors

internal rationality imperfect market knowledge and asset prices we present a decision theoretic framework in which agents are learning about market behavior and that provides microfoundations for models of adaptive learning agents are internally rational i e maximize discounted expected utility under uncertainty given dynamically consistent subjective beliefs about the future but agents may not be externally rational i e may not know the true stochastic process for payoff relevant variables beyond their control this includes future market outcomes and fundamentals we apply this approach to a simple asset pricing model and show that the equilibrium stock price is then determined by investors expectations of the price and dividend in the next period rather than by expectations of the discounted sum of dividends as a result learning about price behavior affects market outcomes while learning about the discounted sum of dividends is irrelevant for equilibrium prices stock prices equal the discounted sum of dividends only after making very strong assumptions about agents market knowledge

in pursuit of monopoly power recent quantitative work in industrial economics this paper reviews empirical work in industrial organization devoted to the question of inferring the existence of monopoly power from data on observed market outcomes like profits and prices the discussion covers inter industry work long conventional in the area newer developments in intra industry analysis and case studies and concludes with some remarks on a small but growing body of work assessing market dynamics the wide range of studies reviewed all generally reveal that market power exists in many industries

new frontiers in international strategy this paper studies a new frontier in the understanding of international strategy is to explore it we propose the analogy of the ecology of firms and places as a way to emphasize that the real problem is the colocation of different places with different types of firms locations are in fact the distinctive content of international business strategy we deal with this problem with four different perspectives first differences across countries must be addressed with integrative frameworks able to represent the multidimensionality of semiglobalization or intermediate states between total localization and total integration second differences in the development of intermediary markets in a particular place influence firm positioning and industry structure in that place but their impact also crosses different places and it is endogenous to the ecology of places and firms in a systemic integrative way that makes simplifications extremely risky in the design of competitive strategy in an international context third places firms and strategies form a complex ecology that can be studied with a framework focused in understanding the geography strategy link that incorporates different levels of analysis new economic actors and a set of primitives finally firms around the ecology of places face the challenge of developing strategies and business models to serve the majority of humanity today excluded from world trade it is a fundamentally different way to think about the ecology of places and firms overall we present an intriguing new frontier with the capacity to impact both research and practice in the field of international strategy based in understanding the interplay among firms and places

heterogeneous expectations optimal monetary policy and the merit of policy inertia the design and analysis of optimal monetary policy is usually guided by the paradigm of homogeneous rational expectations instead we examine the dynamic consequences of design and implementation strategies when the actual economy features expectational heterogeneity agents have either rational or adaptive expectations consequently the central bank s ability to achieve price stability under heterogeneous expectations depends on its objective and implementation strategy an expectations based reaction function which appropriately conditions on private sector expectations performs exceptionally well however once the objective introduces policy inertia popular strategies have similar determinacy properties but they are less operational this finding calls for new implementation strategies under interest rate stabilization

information and the concept of option value this paper examines the arrow fisher henry concept of option value and analyzes its properties including its relationship to the value of information and the effects of increasing uncertainty about the future consequences of irreversible development it is shown that this option value is distinct from but bounded by the value of information in the overall decision problem also it is distinct from a concept of option value that appears in b s bernanke quart j econom 98 85 106 1983 however when there is a continuum of development levels rather than a binary choice between full development and no development some of these conclusions need to be modified

estimating the performance effects of business groups in emerging markets business groups confederations of legally independent firms are ubiquitous in emerging economies yet very little is known about their effects on the performance of affiliated firms we conceive of business groups as responses to market failures and high transaction costs in doing so we develop hypotheses about the effects of group affiliation on firm profitability affiliation could either boost or depress firm profitability and members of a group are likely to earn rates of return similar to other members of the same group using a unique data set compiled largely from local sources we test for these effects in 14 emerging markets argentina brazil chile india indonesia israel mexico peru the philippines south africa south korea taiwan thailand and turkey we find evidence that business groups indeed affect the broad patterns of economic performance in 12 of the markets we examine group affiliation appears to have as profound an effect on profitability as does industry membership yet strategy scholars have a much clearer grasp of industries than of groups moreover membership in a group raises the profitability of the average group member in several of the markets we examine this runs contrary to the wisdom conventional in advanced economies that unrelated diversification depresses profitability overall our findings suggest that the roots of sustained differences in profitability may vary across institutional contexts conclusions drawn in one context may well not apply to another copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

a new keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations abstract within a new keynesian model we incorporate bounded rationality at the individual agent level and we determine restrictions on expectations operators sufficient to imply aggregate is and as relations of the same functional form as those under rationality this result provides dual implications the strong nature of the restrictions required to achieve aggregation serve as a caution to researchers imposing heterogeneous expectations at an aggregate level may be ill advised on the other hand accepting the necessary restrictions provides for tractable analysis of expectations heterogeneity as an example we consider a case where a fraction of agents are rational and the remainder are adaptive and find specifications that are determinate under rationality may possess multiple equilibria in case of expectations heterogeneity

the voyage of the beagle into innovation explorations on heterogeneity selection and sectors the aim of the paper is to assess heterogeneity of the innovation process using exploratory factor analysis on micro data from the third community innovation survey in 13 countries we identify four patterns that can be interpreted as research user external and production ingredients of innovation all too often it is assumed that how firm innovate can be represented by differences across sectors and or countries to put this proposition under scrutiny we partition variability of the factors scores into components identified by these higher levels sectors and countries matter to a certain extent but far more of the variance is given by heterogeneity among firms within both of them however groups of firms produced by cluster analysis account for much higher share of the variance which indicates that the most relevant stratification of the data cuts across the established sectoral and national boundaries we discuss implications of these findings for understanding of selection in evolutionary economics and for the literature on innovation systems

testable competing hypotheses from structure performance theory efficient structure versus market power this paper provides a structure performance theory that can accommodate leading firm efficiency as well as several competing market power hypotheses the author derive s testable implications distinguishing the simple collusion product differentiation and scale economy hypotheses from the innovative lea ding firm alternative it is shown that recent evidence of a positive market share price cost margin pcm relationship and a nonpositive concentration pcm relationship can reject the scale economy and simpl e collusion hypotheses in homogeneous product markets unfortunately this same evidence cannot reject the product differentiation hypothe sis in favor of leading firm efficiency copyright 1988 by blackwell publishing ltd

the persistence of shocks to profitability in this study we use data for 1981 through 1994 on a large sample of u s companies to examine the persistence of incremental industry corporate parent and business specific effects on profitability our results indicate that the incremental effects of industry on profitability persist longer than the incremental effects of the corporate parent and of the specific business changes in industry structure have a more persistent impact on profitability than do changes in firm structure

anniversary article the strategy field from the perspective of management science divergent strands and possible integration we reflect on the evolution of the strategy field as seen through the window ofmanagement science reflecting the diverse disciplinary roots of strategy research we identify a broad ranging body of work that varies with respect to the assumptions made regarding individual rationality and the level of analysis at which the research is carried out we argue that recent developments begin to delineate a potentially unifying conceptual framework for treating the field s defining questions the conceptual apparatus of evolutionary economics we conclude by laying out important challenges for evolutionary economics if it is to serve as a foundation for both the positive and the normative research agendas of the strategy field

the science of monetary policy an imperfect knowledge perspective this paper reevaluates the basic prescriptions of monetary policy design in the new keynesian paradigm through the lens of imperfect knowledge we show that while the basic logic of monetary policy design under rational expectations continues to obtain perfect knowledge and learning can limit the set of policies available to central banks rendering expectations management in general more difficult nonetheless the desirability of some form of price level targeting inducing inertia in interest rate policy paramount under rational expectations is robust to the assumption of imperfect knowledge

management and ownership effects evidence from five countries despite the growing recognition in the corporate governance literature that the relationship between ownership concentration and profitability is context dependent this issue has not yet been subjected to direct empirical investigation using a single cross national sample this study empirically examines the ownership concentration performance relationship across the nations of canada france germany the united kingdom and the united states essentially we argue that the correlation if any between ownership concentration and firm profitability differs across countries in a systematic way determined by the national system of corporate governance results indicate that important and statistically significant differences do in fact exist across the countries studied 1998 john wiley sons ltd

the perils of taylor rules abstract since john taylor s 1993 carnegie rochester conf ser publ policy39 195 214 seminal paper a large literature has argued that active interest rate feedback rules that is rules that respond to increases in inflation with a more than one for one increase in the nominal interest rate are stabilizing in this paper we argue that once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account active interest rate feedback rules can easily lead to unexpected consequences specifically we show that even if the steady state at which monetary policy is active is locally the unique equilibrium typically there exist an infinite number of equilibrium trajectories originating arbitrarily close to that steady state that converge to a liquidity trap that is a steady state in which the nominal interest rate is near zero and inflation is possibly negative journal of economic literature classification numbers e52 e31 e63

optimal interest rate smoothing this paper considers the desirability of the observed tendency of central banks to adjust interest rates only gradually in response to changes in economic conditions it shows in the context of a simple model of optimizing private sector behaviour that assignment of an interest rate smoothing objective to the central bank may be desirable even when reduction of the magnitude of interest rate changes is not a social objective in itself this is because a response of policy to irrelevant lagged variables may be desirable owing to the way it steers private sector expectations of future policy

a closer look at the effect of market growth on industries profits everybody talks about the relation of industries profit rates to their markets rates of growth but nobody does anything about it specifically researchers have confirmed the effect of the growth of nominal output on profits in many multivariate studies without specifying closely the hypothesis under test or the measure of demand growth appropriate to test it a profits growth relationship could stem from several mechanisms the lagged adaptation of capacity to unexpected changes in demand reactions of oligopolists to disturbances in their consensus etc these mechanisms how and where they work hold their own normative interest therefore knowing what behavior and what structure lying behind it accounts for the profits growth relationship should do more than improve the specifications of our studies of allocative efficiency it should also expand our knowledge of adaptive processes that are important and hard to observe directly in this paper we shall synthesize the available explanations of why changes in market demand should affect an industry s profits then present a statistical test of the relative significance of the competing explanations

booms and busts in economic activity a behavioral explanation booms and busts in economic activity are a regular occurrence they lead to a strong empirical regularity i e that output gaps and output growth are non normally distributed mainstream macroeconomic models explain this phenomenon by invoking exogenous shocks that are non normally distributed this is not a very satisfactory explanation as it shifts our ignorance one step further i propose an explanation based on a behavioral macroeconomic model in which agents are assumed to have limited cognitive abilities and thus develop different beliefs this model produces waves of optimism and pessimism in an endogenous way animal spirits and provides for a better endogenous explanation of the observed non normality in output movements i also analyze the implications for monetary policy

corporate and industry effects on business unit competitive position we partition the variances of market shares which we use as surrogates for competitive position of the business units of all public manufacturing companies available in the trinet data base into industry factors corporate parent specific factors and business unit specific factors our results differ somewhat from rumelt s 1991 which decomposed variances in profitability we find that corporate parent effects on market share are considerably greater than zero when lines of business are defined more narrowly when small business units are included and when firms are medium sized our results suggest that the relative importance of corporate industry and business unit effects depends on the types of criteria such as the level of industry aggregation whether small business units are included and firm size that are used to construct samples copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

risk and return on long lived tangible assets abstract assuming rational expectations a specialization of ross arbitrage pricing theory is used to obtain a simple securities market valuation formula when dividends follow linear stochastic processes the implications of this model for the use of accounting data to measure risk and for capital budgeting are explored a new measure of riskiness based on accounting data is derived and the use of risk adjusted discount rates is evaluated

technical efficiency market share and profitability of manufacturing firms in cote d ivoire the technology trap this paper investigates the sources of inefficiency of firms in cote d ivoire and exam ines to what extent these effects translate into poor performance a large majority of firms is technically inefficient producing far below the maximum attainable output level major cost savings can also be realised through enlarging the scale of activities of firms efficiency gains and scale advantages translate into a better competitive position and via their impact on market share into higher profitability however severe growth barriers and imperfect markets keep firms from realising these gains and prevent firms from catching up in technology with respect to their larger older and often foreign owned competitors

is there a causal effect of concentration on persistent profitability differentials this article searches for a causal effect of industry concentration on estimates of persistent profitability differentials i offer solutions to identification problems that plague related analyses by applying an iv and a natural experiment this is the first study that explains estimates of persistent profit differentials using business segments data allowing to match micro and industry level data more consistently testing linear relations critical concentration levels and interactions with mobility barriers i find no evidence that concentration has any positive effect on long run profitability differences results rather tend to point to a statistically and economically significant negative causal effect

the validity of profits structure studies with particular reference to the ftc s line of business data the simple proposition that consumerdamaging collusion is more likely to occur when there are fewer competitors has given rise not only to legal restrictions of economic activity thought to restrict output but also to an enormous amount of empirical work attempting to relate market concentration to the exercise of monopoly power most such studies measured market structure by an index of concentration for example four firm concentration or herfindahl and performance by accounting profit for example net profit divided by assets or price cost margins sales less direct costs divided by sales from the positive statistically significant correlations often found between greater concentration and profit with other factors presumably accounted for some researchers conclude that increases in concentration are anticompetitive and that concentration therefore is bad the concentration profits studies have been criticized essentially on two grounds one is that the positive relationship is not indicative of collusive behavior in particular oliver williamson 1968 john mcgee 1971 harold demsetz 1973 1974 and sam peltzman 1977 point out that higher profits could result from efficiencies experienced by large firms which resulted both in greater market shares and high levels of concentration analytical arguments show that higher profits logically follow as much from lower costs that are associated with higher levels of concentration as from collusion determined higher prices some empirical evidence that supports this belief is presented by demsetz peltzman and bradley gale and ben branch 1982 however their findings have been contested on the grounds that the data used are biased or inadequate or that the researchers have not demonstrated that the observed higher profits greater concentration relationship was caused by lower costs 2 the second criticism is that available data provide an inadequate basis for such conclusions the concentration numbers are based usually on industries defined by the commerce department s standard industrial classifications sic the sic definitions tend to be supply production rather than demand determined include nonhomogeneous products and exclude sales of similar products that are included in different sic groups or are imported the profit data are taken from accounting reports that provide poor measures of economic values weiss 1974 describes many of these problems however he does not believe that these shortcomings invalidate the studies as weiss 1979 concludes

valuing environmental goods and services using benefit transfer the state of the art and science abstract the purpose of this special issue of ecological economics is to elucidate the state of the art and science of environmental benefit transfer and to assist in the design and reporting of future benefit estimation research compiling the insights of thirty two international experts from seven countries the special issue reviews the latest developments in transfer techniques as well as ongoing efforts to standardize and validate them taken together the papers in this special issue provide fresh answers to some long standing questions offer original research insights on state of the art issues and identify fruitful areas for future research this introductory paper provides background and context for the issues addressed by the contributing authors its purpose is to place the interdisciplinary thinking contained here in a comparative context highlighting the need for integration and collaboration to maintain the momentum that has propelled environmental benefit transfer into a widely used approach for estimating the economic value of environmental goods and services worldwide

heterogeneous expectations in monetary dsge models this paper derives a general new keynesian framework with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro foundations underpinning the model the resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case we specify a setup in which some agents as a result of cognitive limitations make mistakes when forecasting future macroeconomic variables and update their beliefs as new information becomes available while other agents have rational expectations we then address determinacy issues related to the use of different interest rate rules and derive policy implications for a monetary authority aiming at stabilizing the economy in a dynamic feedback system in which macroeconomic variables and heterogeneous expectations co evolve over time

sustained competitive advantage temporal dynamics and the incidence and persistence of superior economic performance competitive advantage is a key concept in strategic management research for a number of reasons not the least of which is that an avowed consequence of its attainment is held to be superior economic performance however few prior empirical studies have directly and systematically documented the incidence or prevalence of persistent superior economic performance the research reported here is based on empirical studies of a large number of industry samples for which longitudinal data were stratified by levels of performance using a new methodology and then analyzed in terms of their dynamics this new stratification technique was used in lieu of autoregressive methods employed in prior studies of performance persistence to allow for a true outlier analysis because persistent superior economic performance both has been argued theoretically and found empirically to be rare detailed results from a sample of 6 772 firms in 40 industries over 25 years are presented to illustrate the findings that 1 while some firms do exhibit superior economic performance 2 only a very small minority do so and 3 the phenomenon very rarely persists for long time frames these results while not providing direct support for a particular extant strategic management or economic theory concerning firm performance are most consonant with the resource based view of the firm and have implications for significant aspects of other received strategic management and economic theories

do markets differ much this essay reports the results of a crosssection study of differences in accounting profitability that sheds light on some basic controversies in industrial economics most previous cross section studies in this field have been concerned with testing hypotheses about structural coefficients in models meant to apply to essentially all markets as we have learned more about the difficulties of constructing such general models and of performing tests on their structural parameters properly structural cross section analysis has fallen out of fashion in contrast to most of the cross section literature the analysis reported here is fundamentally descriptive it does not attempt directly to estimate or to test hypotheses about structural parameters i hope to show by example that one can perform illuminating analysis of cross section data without a host of controversial maintained hypotheses cross section data can yield interesting stylized facts to guide both general theorizing and empirical analysis of specific industries even if they cannot easily support full blown structural estimation one can view the sort of search for stylized facts conducted here as either a replacement for or an input to interindustry structural estimation depending on one s feeling about the long run potential of that research approach this study also departs from much of the cross section literature by being fundamentally concerned with the importance of various effects not just with coefficient signs and t statistics in particular this essay provides estimates of the relative importance of firm market and market share differences in the determination of business unit divisional profitability in u s manufacturing using 1975 data from the line of business program of the u s federal trade commission ftc i find support neither for the existence of firm effects nor for the importance of market share effects moreover while industry effects apparently exist and are important they appear to be negatively correlated with seller concentration in these data section i relates firm market and share effects to current issues and controversies in industrial economics and thus supplies the motivation for our empirical analysis the remainder of the essay treats the data and

do unions capture monopoly profits this paper challenges the conclusion reached in recent studies that unions reduce profits exclusively in highly concentrated industries from their review of previous studies and their analysis of 1977 data on 367 fortune 500 firms the authors conclude that there is no convincing evidence that concentration produces monopoly profits for unions to capture moreover they find that the union wage effect is not greater in concentrated industries as suggested by the hypothesis that unions capture concentration related profits evidence is found suggesting that a firm s market share its expenditures on research and development and its protection from foreign competition provide more likely sources for union rents than does industry concentration several recent studies have found that unions reduce profits significantly and some have concluded that this profit reduction is restricted to highly concentrated industries both conclusions are important the finding that unions reduce profitability indicates that in general the cost increasing effects of unions outweigh any positive productivity effects they may bring to the workplace such a

testing the internal consistency of contingent valuation surveys abstract for an internal consistency check one can examine wtp responses to different surveys holding an environmental problem constant concave preferences imply wtpconcavein the success of a remedy the same preferences imply wtpconvexin the magnitude of an environmental problem assuming a successful remedy having opposite signed curvature of these two wtp patterns is general not requiring concave preferences for an adding up test an environmental commodity can be divided then wtp for one part plus wtp for the second part conditional on already having the first part equals wtp for the whole adjusted by an income effect

the divergence of sic industries from antitrust markets some evidence from price fixing cases abstract evidence from price fixing cases is used to demonstrate that sic four digit industries often are far broader in product and or geographic scope than antitrust markets and that the divergence between the two is greater than suggested in the literature

heterogeneity learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations in this paper we propose novel techniques for the empirical analysis of adaptive learning and sticky information in inflation expectations these methodologies are applied to the distribution of households inflation expectations collected by the university of michigan survey research center to account for the evolution of the cross section of inflation forecasts over time and measure the degree of heterogeneity in private agents forecasts we explore time series of percentiles from the empirical distribution our results show that heterogeneity is pervasive in the process of inflation expectation formation we identify three regions of the distribution that correspond to different underlying mechanisms of expectation formation a static or highly autoregressive region on the left hand side of the median a nearly rational region around the median and a fraction of forecasts on the right hand side of the median formed in accordance with adaptive learning and sticky information

beyond firm and industry effects on profitability in imperfect markets the federal trade commission s line of business data imply that the effect of an industry s seller concentration on profitability has been misinterpreted because it has not been conditioned on capital intensity conclusions that market share rather than seller concentration is the primary structural determinant of profitability and that mutual dependence recognized among oligopolistic sellers is less important than superiority effects of large share firms appear unwarranted significant firm effects exist and explanatory power for a conventional model of structure and performance is found to be small relative to that of the general linear model within which the conventional model is nested

managing monetary policy in a new keynesian model with many beliefs types this paper considers a standard new keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations on the future level of inflation and output a biased perception of the target pursued by the central bank may arise due to idiosyncrasies in information processing leading to heterogeneous beliefs about the target we consider an arbitrarily large number of agents beliefs and apply the concept of large type limit we find that an increase in the sensitivity of agents in selecting the optimal prediction strategy or in the spread of beliefs is crucial for the extent of the central bank to stabilize the economy when the predictors are largely dispersed around the target the taylor principle is a requisite for stability since it prevents the self fulfilling reinforcement mechanism between the realizations of the relevant macroeconomic variables and the forecasts of the agents when the set of beliefs is somehow anchored to the target stability can be achieved with weaker monetary policy