robust international comparisons of distributions of disposable income and regional public goods the paper provides robust normative comparisons of 12 oecd countries based on their distributions of disposable income and access to two regional public goods infant mortality and pupil teacher ratios at public schools comparisons are performed using two and three dimensional dominance criteria that coincide with the unanimity of utilitarian judgments taken over specific classes of utility functions the criteria succeed in ranking conclusively about 30 of all possible comparisons in the two dimensional case compared with 67 for one dimensional income based comparisons and 6 for three dimensional ones introducing local public goods seems to worsen the relative standing of anglo saxon countries

renewable natural resource management and use without markets natural resources by their nature are not readily bent to the status of private property efficient resource use is complicated by jurisdictional externalities public goods non use values and beneficiaries spatially separated from the location of resources the task is made more challenging by ecological complexity that obscures cause benefits and effects costs and dramatic time lags between individual actions and subsequent social consequences that together with substantial uncertainty introduce the chance of irreversibilities resource economists have played a major role in the literature on externalities the development of individual transferable quotas non market valuation techniques and common property management

history dependence in concave economies abstract this paper investigates concave intertemporal optimization problems and derives two mechanisms either growth or control state interactions e g due to endogenous preferences that allow for multiple steady states including an unstable one therefore history dependence is possible in a perfectly governed economy subject to the law of diminishing returns if one of these two mechanisms is present this result complements a large amount of literature that attributes history dependence to convexities as a consequence lock ins into undesired evolutions are possible beyond the familiar case of increasing returns

the role of property rights in determining the environmental quality income relationship article i nfo this paper examines the role of property rights in shaping the relationship between environmental quality and income it develops an analytical framework that integrates the effects of property rights evolution natural resource attributes agent characteristics and production technology on the environment income relationship the substantive strength of this framework lies in its ability to rationalize a wide range of environment income relationships the model shows that the u shaped environment income relationship which is consistent with the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis can arise only under specific model conditions thus the framework provides an additional explanation for non universality of ekc we provide evidence in support of our framework from case studies of various natural resources

a dominance approach to the appraisal of the distribution of well being across countries abstract this paper proposes a dominance approach to study inequality of well being across countries we consider a class of well being indices based on the three attributes used in the hdi human development index indices are required to satisfy preference for egalitarian marginal distributions of income health and education alep substitution of attributes and priority to poor countries in allocating funds to enhance health and education we exhibit sufficient conditions for checking dominance over the defined class of well being indices we apply our method to country data from 2000 to 2005 the deterioration in health conditions in poor countries is why welfare improvements at the world level cannot be ascertained

evolution of population resource dynamics models abstract this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of brander and taylor s 1998 model and its descendants from the following perspectives population growth substitutability innovation capital accumulation property rights and institutional designs and modeling approach this survey aims to contribute to a better understanding of population and resource dynamics models in general and facilitate further application of the model framework to relevant circumstances although often treated as exogenous in optimal growth models making population growth an endogenous function allows us to analyze broader effects of economic activities on population the issues of substitutability innovation and capital accumulation are intertwined allowing a model to address the effect of an endogenous technological change on substitutability between natural and man made capital facilitates our analyses of sustainability issues to address internalizing inter generational externalities in resource use incorporating property right changes and institutional designs to this type of model is a useful exercise but careful attention is needed for the consistency between such an arrangement and the mathematical representation of the depicted economy finally although the common criticism regarding convenient mathematical assumptions applies to the existing bt type models the use of computer simulation can relax such assumptions to better represent the intended relationships between the relevant variables

demographic pressure and natural resources conservation abstract a field survey was carried out in the villages of nlobesse e at the western periphery of the dja biosphere reserve south cameroon to evaluate the various effects that the increase in the local populations exert on the conservation of the natural resources of the reserve survey results show that the population was increasing rapidly at 40 00 00 per annum with 61 54 of the total inhabitants originating from other parts of the country despite the rapid population growth the population of the kaka and baka ethnic groups also known as the pigmies who have been noted by ecofac ecosysteme forestiere d afrique centrale for having a marked negative impact on the conservation of the natural resources because they depend mostly on the natural resources of the reserve for their livelihood and practice very little or no agriculture were decreasing at a rate of 6 2 probably they sought better hunting gathering and collecting conditions elsewhere in the reserve animal proteins originating from the reserve provide most of the animal proteins consumed by the households and the entire population of nlobesse e demands 44 4 kg of bush meat per day it was also noted that the local population practiced very little agriculture in the reserve hunting and fishing activities that have been noted for having a negative influence on the conservation of biodiversity contributed 15 2 and 11 2 respectively of the total income of the households other sources of income included wages earned from the agro plantation that contributed 40 3 farming 24 2 commerce 3 and others 4 58 merchant middlemen also referred to as buyam sellam and individuals with no commercial interest were the two main relay agents responsible for transporting natural resources out of nlobesse e it would have been expected that the increasing population combined to the high incidence of poverty in the region per capita income of 225 fcfa or 0 3 per day would have exerted a high sustainability pressure on the conservation of reserve resources however this was not the case because of an agro plantation in the area that provided the local population with the necessary income to buy foodstuff and other needed resources from far away areas to maintain this trend it is recommended that other sources of income such as the creation of small scale enterprises and ecotourism should be encouraged in and around biospheres reserves

eco thermodynamics economics and the second law the laws of physics especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics have significant implications for economic theory the major implications of the first law conservation of mass energy are straightforward and have been discussed at length elsewhere in brief raw material inputs to economic processes are not consumed having been extracted from the environment in the first place they eventually return to the environment as wastes the economic implications of the second law entropy law are far more subtle there is considerable literature initiated by the work of georgescu roegen on the supposed constraints on economic growth imposed by the fact that economic processes utilize low entropy raw materials fossil fuels and high grade metal ores and discard high entropy wastes however as a practical matter the flux of available low entropy energy exergy from the sun is extremely large and certainly adequate to sustain economic activity in the solar system indefinitely even though fossil fuel and metal ore stocks may eventually be exhausted it is argued in this paper that the real economic significance of the second law lies in the fact that exergy is i not conserved and ii is a useful common measure of resource quality as well as quantity applicable to both materials and energy thus exergy can be used to measure and compare resource inputs and outputs including wastes and losses this is potentially important in itself moreover since exergy is not conserved it is truly consumed i e used up in economic processes hence exergy is no less a factor of production than labor or capital this fact has strong implications for economic growth theory especially with regard to assessing the role of technical progress

explaining fashion cycles imitators chasing innovators in product space abstract this paper considers the problem of a fashion trend setter confronting an imitator who can produce the same product at lower cost a one dimensional product space is considered which is an abstraction of the key attribute of some consumer good three broad strategies can be optimal for the fashion leader 1 never innovate which milk profits from the initially advantageous position but ultimately concede the market without a fight 2 innovate once but only once which just temporarily defers conceding the market 3 cycle infinitely around product space never letting the imitator catch up and capture the market sometimes the cycles start immediately sometimes the innovator should wait for a time before beginning the cycles the optimal solution exhibits strong state dependency with so called skiba curves separating regions in state space where various of these strategies are optimal there are even instances of intersecting skiba curves in most cases analytical expressions can be stated that characterize these skiba curves

the dynamics of human environment interactions in the collapse of the classic maya abstract in this study we investigate the societal development of the maya in the southern lowlands over a span of approximately 1400 years and explore whether societal dynamics linked to the depletion of natural resources can explain the rise and fall of the classic maya we propose a dynamical systems model that accounts for the state of the land population and workers employed in swidden and intensive agriculture and monument building optimisation of model output to fit empirical data fixes biometric parameters to values consistent with the literature and requires that a shift from swidden to more intensive agriculture took place at around 550 ce the latter prediction is consistent with the dating of the beginning of the late classical period thus our model offers an explanation of the collapse of the society of the maya and suggests that the role of droughts may have been overestimated consistent with previous work the collapse can be modelled by a critical transition supercritical hopf bifurcation where the critical parameter is the harvesting rate per capita of intensive agriculture furthermore an extensive sensitivity analysis indicates that the model and its predictions are robust

human and nature dynamics handy modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies abstract there are widespread concerns that current trends in resource use are unsustainable but possibilities of overshoot collapse remain controversial collapses have occurred frequently in history often followed by centuries of economic intellectual and population decline many different natural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses but a general explanation remains elusive in this paper we build a human population dynamics model by adding accumulated wealth and economic inequality to a predator prey model of humans and nature the model structure and simulated scenarios that offer significant implications are explained four equations describe the evolution of elites commoners nature and wealth the model shows economic stratification or ecological strain can independently lead to collapse in agreement with the historical record the measure carrying capacity is developed and its estimation is shown to be a practical means for early detection of a collapse mechanisms leading to two types of collapses are discussed the new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses found in history collapse can be avoided and population can reach a steady state at maximum carrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level and if resources are distributed equitably

the inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment a critical note on bohringer and loschel 2006 the search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade offs and interactions between the economic environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process a paper forthcoming in ecological economics bohringer c loschel a in press computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment status quo and prospects ecological economics claims that computable general equilibrium cge models may potentially represent the much needed back bone tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative sustainability impact assessments sias while acknowledging the usefulness of cge models for some dimensions of sia this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi dimensional dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability it discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the cge modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments the paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the sia process namely a transparent heterogeneous balanced inter disciplinary consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence base

innis lecture environmental crises past present and future environmental crises are distinguished by rapid and largely unexpected changes in environmental quality that are difficult if not impossible to reverse examples would be major extinctions and significant degradations of an ecosystem i argue there are three preconditions for crisis failures in governance an ecological system exhibiting a tipping point and an economy environment interaction with positive feedbacks i develop a simple model to illustrate how a crisis may arise and draw on our knowledge of past and present crises to highlight the mechanisms involved i then speculate as to whether climate change is indeed a crisis in the making les crises environnementales sont caracterisees par des changements rapides et largement non anticipes dans la qualite de l environnement qui sont difficiles sinon impossibles a renverser des exemples pourraient etre des extinctions d especes et des degradations significatives d un ecosysteme l auteur suggere qu il faut trois conditions pour qu il y ait crise faillites de gouvernance un systeme ecologique au point de bascule et une interface environnement economie riche de retroactions positives l auteur developpe un modele simple pour illustrer comment une crise peut emerger et s appuie sur la connaissance des crises passees et presentes pour souligner les mecanismes en jeu on specule en fin de texte sur la question a savoir si le changement climatique est une crise en train de prendre

the fate of easter island the limits of resource management institutions abstract malthus malthus thomas 1798 1970 an essay on the principle of population penguin new york believed that population growth will eventually lead to natural resource depletion economic and social collapse and population decline brander and taylor brander james a taylor m scott 1998 the simple economics of easter island a ricardo malthus model of renewable resource use american economic review 88 119 138 use a predator prey model with an assumption of an open access resource they show that the collapse of easter island could be explained by a malthusian trap combined with technical characteristics of the resources they suggest that institutional change such as assignment of property rights could potentially have averted the collapse of easter island in this paper we show that even if the islanders had complete assignment of property rights and implemented optimal resource management with infinite horizon or equivalently had a social planner that implemented such an optimal plan as in neoclassical welfare economics a similar boom bust cycle would have occurred

the systems dynamics of endogenous population growth in a renewable resource based growth model abstract this paper evaluates the dynamic effects of adding an endogenous process for human population growth into a renewable resource based economic growth model endogenizing human population growth in a static constant technology form of the model gives rise to a dynamically complex system with the possibility of multiple steady states of several types and unusual comparative static responses to changes in the system s parameters adding technological progress to the model gives rise to the possibility of multiple sustainable paths for the variables in the system these results reinforce concerns raised by ecological economists about systems stability and sustainability since exogenous shocks to the system could move the economy from higher welfare to lower welfare equilibria or in the model with technological progress from higher welfare to lower welfare sustainable growth paths moreover this kind of dynamic complexity adds to the management challenge faced by policy makers who could confront the necessity of maneuvering the economy among different equilibria or sustainable growth paths

resource use institutions and sustainability a tale of two pacific island cultures this paper examines two pacific island cultures easter island and tikopia and the relationship between natural resource systems human made capital population growth and institutional change easter island followed a preindustrial society pattern of overshoot and collapse however tikopia evolved cultural practices leading to zero population growth and sustainable resource use using a modified lotka volterra predator prey model we find 1 investment in human made capital does not necessarily eliminate the boom and bust cycles of economic activity and population observed in many past societies and 2 institutional adaptation and resource conservation can be critical in achieving population stability

energy transition towards economic and environmental sustainability feasible paths and policy implications this paper focuses on growth feasibility in an era of increasing scarcity of fossil fuels a stylised dynamic model illustrates the implications of investing in smooth technological progress in the field of renewable energy positive rates of gdp growth sustained by fossil fuels entail on the one hand more income available for r d in renewable energy sources and on the other an acceleration of the exhaustible resource depletion time our model explores such a trade off and highlights the danger of high growth rates policies should target low growth rates stimulate investment in alternative energy sources and discourage consumption growth

indeterminacy in a dynamic small open economy abstract we show that even under socially constant returns to scale indeterminacy i e continuum of dynamic general equilibrium paths converging to a common steady state can arise in a dynamic small open economy with production externalities and endogenous time preferences in which production is incompletely specialized

indeterminacy and sunspots with constant returns recently there has been a renewed interest in the possibility of indeterminacy and sunspots or alternatively put in the existence of a continuum of equilibria that arises in dynamic economies with some market imperfections much of the research in this area has been concerned with the empirical plausibility of indeterminacy in markets with external effects or with monopolistic competition and which exhibit some degree of increasing returns while the early results on indeterminacy relied on relatively large increasing returns and high markups more recently benhabib and farmer 1996a showed that indeterminacy can also occur in two sector models with small sector specific external effects and very mild increasing returns

on modeling human behavior and institutions in simple ecological economic systems abstract the use of stylized dynamical systems models and bifurcation analysis in modeling individual and collective behavior in two traditional societies the tsembaga of new guinea and the polynesians of easter island is explored the analysis is used to isolate key aspects of individual behavior that open up the possibility of resource overexploitation and key aspects of institutions capable of preventing overexploitation an extension of the brander and taylor am econ rev 88 1998 119 138 easter island model with a more realistic model for individual behavior is presented this induces significant changes in the model dynamics which share many similarities with the tsembaga model of anderies j theor biol 192 1998 515 530 namely in both models the ability of agents to intensify the exploitation of the resource base to attempt to meet demands is a fundamentally destabilizing force the model implications for present day policy issues are explored

viewpoint sustainability malthus revisited the sustainability debate concerns whether the world will experience stable or improving living standards for the foreseeable future or whether the current trajectory will overtax the natural environment leading to a crash in living standards this paper selec tively reviews relevant research focusing on both ecological concerns and technological progress and asks whether sustainability would be problematic without rapid population growth i suggest that continued demographic transition to lower fertility is the primary requirement for achieving sustainable development this is effectively a modern transla tion of malthus 1798 the paper also discusses the role of the malthusian cycle in human evolution jel classification q56 j10

resistance to reform status quo bias in the presence of individual specific uncertainty comment why do governments so often fail to adopt policies which economists consider to be efficiency enhancing our answer to this question relies on uncertainty regarding the distribution of gains and losses from reform we show that there is a bias towards the status quo and hence against efficiency enhancing reforms whenever some of the individual gainers and losers from reform cannot be identified beforehand there are reforms which once adopted will receive adequate political support but would have failed to carry the day ex ante the argument does not rely on risk aversion irrationality or hysteresis due to sunk costs jel d72 f13 why do governments so often fail to adopt policies that economists consider to be efficiency enhancing this is one of the fundamental questions of political economy the answer usually relies on what may be

the influence of ethical attitudes on the demand for environmental recreation incorporating lexicographic preferences abstract this article examines the relationships between different ethical attitudes toward environmental quality and the use values obtained from the environment in particular we consider individuals who have duty based ethical attitudes that lead to lexicographic preferences for environmental quality we show that individuals with duty based ethical attitudes have recreation demand functions that are kinked exhibiting perfectly inelastic behavior over some range of income however the kinks cannot be identified from typical cross sectional data and to the extent that observed recreation demand for these individuals differs from those with neoclassical preferences such differences could be captured empirically through a proxy variable that measures ethical attitudes a more fundamental issue is that changes in welfare for duty based individuals cannot be determined from their estimated demand function while an exogenous rise in environmental quality is likely to increase the demand for recreation by these individuals additional recreation is not the reason for an improvement in well being an empirical model to identify the effect of ethical attitudes on recreation is illustrated using survey data on stated preferences for visits to urban parks

how substitutable is natural capital one of the recurring themes in the sustainability literature has been the extent to which a loss of natural capital can be made up for in welfare terms by an increase in other forms of capital this issue was raised early on in the debate on sustainability by pearce and has never really been resolved this paper is an empirical attempt to measure the degree of substitutability between different forms of capital a nested ces production function is used to allow flexibility in the estimated elasticities of substitution also within this specification natural resources and other inputs are combined in different levels of the function thus allowing for different levels of substitutability institutional and economic indicators are also incorporated in the production function estimated results show that the elasticities derived from functions involving land resources were generally around one or greater implying a fairly high degree of substitutability furthermore changes in trade openness and private sector investment have a statistically significant and direct relationship on the efficiency of production and hence on income generation no statistically significant relationship between income and any of the institutional indicators was found

a complete characterization of optimal growth paths in an aggregated model with a non concave production function the convexity of technology has played a crucial role in economic analyses of optimal one sector growth problems for example two of the key results on the traditional model of ramsey 1928 that have relied on the convexity of the technology are that optimal intertemporal growth involves moving monotonically towards a unique steady state as in cass 1965 koopmans 1965 and that the value function is a concave differentiable function of the initial capital stock as in benveniste and scheinkman 1979

economic growth population theory and physiology the bearing of long term processes on the this lecture sketches a theory of the secular decline in morbidity and mortality that takes account of changes induced in physiological functioning since 1700 the synergism between technological and physiological improvements has produced a form of human evolution biological though not genetic rapid culturally transmitted and not necessarily stable which is still ongoing in both oecd and developing countries thermodynamic and physiological aspects of economic growth are defined and their impact on growth rates is assessed implications of this theory for population forecasting measurement of national income demand for leisure pension policies and demand for health care are considered excerpt

a renewable resource based ramsey model with costly resource extraction this paper derives the analytical solution of arenewable resource based ramsey economy withcostly resource extraction the goal is toascertain whether costly resource extractioncan induce nonlinear dynamical properties in the system we find that the solution for a model with constant technology can exhibit multiple steady states and the comparative statics effects for consumption utility and the stock of nature capital areambiguous in a number of different cases moreover thesolution for a model with exogenous technological progress exhibits unusual comparative dynamics andthe possibility of multiple balanced growthpaths an increase in the rate of technologicalprogress induces a long run growth rate in per capitaconsumption that depends on parameters of the productionfunction overall technological progress inthe model can be less beneficial than in the standardeconomic growth model in which resourceextraction is costless

oil exploitation and the environmental kuznets curve abstract this study refers to a panel estimation of an environmental kuznets curve ekc for oil to determine the factors most affecting oil exploitation in 38 oil producing countries during 1990 2000 control variables such as oil reserves oil price population political rights and the gini index were used to determine its contribution to the main ekc model the empirical results fully support the existence of an ekc for oil exploitation furthermore the result indicates that the proved oil reserves has a significant and positive role in oil production but oil price and population do not significantly affect crude oil production also increased freedoms and a better income distribution will reduce the rate of oil exploitation thus policies aiming at enhancing democratic society and better income distribution would be more compatible with sustainability

sustainable growth renewable resources and pollution abstract our intention is to present a growth model with an environmental resource which has its own regeneration process the stock of this resource serves as a source of utility and an input to production we also intend to introduce a negative externality caused by a pollution flow which we assume to be proportional to production in the context of this model it is shown that by using the utility level of the green golden rule as a generalization of the ramsey s bliss point for solving an optimal growth problems with a zero discount rate an optimal path converges to the green golden rule configuration

inequality reducing and inequality preserving transformations of incomes symmetric and individualistic transformations abstract this paper analyzes the redistributive effect of transformations of incomes when the same transformation is applied to all incomes following marshall and olkin lnequalities a theory of majorization and its applications academic press new york 1979 we consider two competing families of nested inequality criteria all of which are consistent with the lorenz ordering looking at the transformations that reduce the inequality of incomes we show that within each family all the criteria generate exactly the same class of transformations we next identify those transformations that preserve or convert a given inequality ranking into a finer ranking we finally find necessary and sufficient conditions to be imposed on a pair of transformations for the inequality ranking of distributions to be preserved journal of economic literature classification number d31 d63 h24

sustainable growth renewable resources and pollution thresholds and cycles abstract ayong le kama j econ dyn control 25 2001 1911 combines within an interesting model optimal saving a la ramsey with optimal intertemporal renewable resource use a la berck j environ econ manage 11 1981 101 this note draws attention to two possible outcomes thresholds and limit cycles that are overlooked in ayong le kama but also in other recent works and that are quite important in this context

the design of monetary and fiscal policy a global perspective abstract we study the emergence of multiple equilibria in models with capital and bonds under various monetary and fiscal policies we show that the presence of capital is indeed another independent source of local and global multiplicities even under active policies that yield local determinacy we also show how a very similar mechanism generates multiplicities in models with bonds and distortionary taxation we then explore the design of monetary policies that avoid multiple equilibria we show that interest rate policies that respond to the output gap while potentially a source of significant inefficiencies may be effective in preventing multiple equilibria and costly oscillatory equilibrium dynamics

ethically robust comparisons of bidimensional distributions with an ordinal attribute abstract we provide foundations for robust normative evaluation of distributions of two attributes one of which is cardinally measurable and transferable between individuals and the other is ordinal and non transferable the result that we establish takes the form of an analogue to the standard hardy littlewood polya theorem for distributions of one cardinal attribute more specifically we identify the transformations of the distributions which guarantee that social welfare increases according to utilitarian unanimity provided that the utility function is concave in the cardinal attribute and that its marginal utility with respect to the same attribute is non increasing in the ordinal attribute we establish that this unanimity ranking of the distributions is equivalent to the ordered poverty gap quasi ordering introduced by bourguignon 12 finally we show that if one distribution dominates another according to the ordered poverty gap criterion then the former can be derived from the latter by means of an appropriate and finite sequence of such transformations

the cyclical exploitation of renewable resource stocks may be optimal abstract the purpose of this paper is to illustrate that stable limit cycles represent a possible generic equilibrium strategy in renewable resource models if the considered resource provides positive externalities this possibility which has been thus far overlooked is demonstrated for a nonlinear variant of the widely quoted model of c w clark f h clarke and g r munro econometrica 47 25 47 1979

easter island historical anecdote or warning for the future two standard solutions for the malthusian trap involve institutional reforms and technological progress using easter island as an example we investigate the hypothetical role that technological progress and population management reform might have played in preventing the collapse of the island s civilization the model includes a composite manufactured good and a composite harvested renewable resource fertility is assumed to rise with per capita income the resource s carrying capacity and intrinsic growth rate as well as labor s harvesting productivity are subject to technological progress fertility is subject to population management reform the model yields a system of two simultaneous nonlinear non autonomous differential equations we first study the system s steady states the system is then parameterized for easter island and its comparative dynamics are investigated in simulations we find that technological progress can generate large fluctuations in population renewable resources and per capita utility sometimes resulting in system collapse with high fertility rates the population and the resource vanish none of the simulations investigated here exhibit a constantly growing per capita utility over time finally we evaluate the applicability of these results to contemporary societies 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

ranking income distributions a large variety of policy questions involve choices between social states and a consequent ordering of the feasible alternatives when these social states are related to the levels of welfare experienced by individuals or households two central issues stand out in determining the relative desirability of different social outcomes one of these is the essentially positive exercise of achieving comparability between households with different characteristics such as composition or preferences operating in different environments for example facing different price structures the other concerns the normative judgments implicit in the evaluation of alternative allocations of resourcesthe emphasis placed on inequality between households and the extent to which greater inequality can be compensated by higher average living standards this paper focuses on the second of these issues and in doing so we abstract from the problem of household comparability by considering a population of n households identical in all respects except for their incomes the question of ordering social states then becomes one of ranking income distributions over a group of anonymous households or individuals borrowing the usual assumptions imposed on consumer preferences we may suppose that a social ordering of income distributions can be represented by a welfare function 2

the effect of subsistence on collapse and institutional adaptation in population resource societies abstract we extend the brander taylor model of population and resource development in an isolated society by adding a resource subsistence requirement to people s preferences this improves plausibility amplifies population overshoot and collapse and can destabilize the steady state and allows for complete cessation of non harvesting activities in line with archaeological evidence for many societies we then use bifurcation techniques to give a global analysis of four types of institutional adaptation an ad valorem resource tax and quotas on total resource harvest total harvest effort and per capita effort in all cases we find that a higher subsistence requirement makes it harder or often impossible for adaptation to avoid overshoot and collapse

limits to substitution between ecosystem services and manufactured goods and implications for social discounting this paper examines implications of limits to substitution for estimating substitutability between ecosystem services and manufactured goods and for social discounting based on a model that accounts for a subsistence requirement in the consumption of ecosystem services we provide empirical evidence on substitution elasticities we find an initial mean elasticity of substitution of two which declines over time towards complementarity we subsequently extend the theory of dual discounting by introducing a subsistence requirement the relative price of ecosystem services is non constant and grows without bound as the consumption of ecosystem services declines towards the subsistence level an application suggests that the initial discount rate for ecosystem services is more than a percentage point lower as compared to manufactured goods this difference increases by a further half percentage point over a 300 year time horizon the results underscore the importance of considering limited substitutability in long term public project appraisal

interactive dynamics between natural and man made assets the impact of external shocks abstract this paper studies a two sector economy in which one of the sectors the commodity sector depends in part on the exploitation of a renewable natural resource and examines the issue in an economy wide context where both natural resources and a man made asset change endogenously over time we show that under an open access resource regime i a resource rich capital poor economy may experience a natural resource curse phase and under certain conditions may even follow a non sustainable path leading to complete natural resource depletion ii a labor inflow results in a higher steady state per capita income with unchanged natural resources though it makes the economy more prone to reach a path that converges to resource collapse iii the introduction of a small import tariff or export tax results in larger steady state natural resources and commodity output and renders the economy less vulnerable to resource collapse we also contrast the open access case with the other polar case of perfect property rights showing that in this case the economy experiences neither a resource curse nor a resource collapse

the tragedy of the commons in international fisheries an empirical examination abstract historically all capture fisheries have proven hard to manage internationally shared stocks face an additional impediment to effective management previous fisheries studies estimate gains from cooperation for particular species or locations but evidence is lacking on the wider effect that international sharing has in relation to other variables that affect stock status this paper is an attempt to shed a broader light on the effect of sharing by identifying whether shared fish stocks are systematically more exploited i compile exploitation status biological and economic data into a unique two period panel of more than 200 fish stocks from around the globe with which i test the theoretical implications of sharing the empirical results from ordered category estimation suggest that shared stocks are indeed more prone to overexploitation

non linear dynamics of population and natural resources the emergence of different patterns of development abstract this paper studies the long term dynamic interaction between the exploitation of natural resources and population growth brander and taylor brander j a and taylor m s 1998 the simple economics of easter island a ricardo malthus model of renewable resource use american economic review 88 1 119 138 started a sequence of papers which sought to deduce from historical and archaeological studies some stylized links between ecological and economic systems in this strand of literature all the services of the natural environment are aggregated in an ecological complex which is characterized by a simple logistic dynamics given such assumptions these models show a unique long term steady state the aim of this paper is to obtain a more general framework that could account for the heterogeneity of environmental development paths followed by past societies two new assumptions are introduced i the disaggregation of the ecological complex into two different resources ii irreversibility namely an inexorable tendency to exhaustion when the renewable resource stock is below a certain threshold analysis of the dynamic properties of the system shows a multiplicity of steady states which makes it possible to consider the effects of technical progress cultural and climate changes on the resilience of the existing development path

skiba thresholds in a model of controlled migration abstract this paper presents a dynamic optimization model of a central challenge of us housing policy deconcentrating poverty via housing mobility programs without inducing middle class flight we explore two versions both with and without the possibility that poor families assimilate into the middle class both demonstrate multiple equilibria with a skiba point separating initial conditions for which the optimal strategy leads to substantial flight from those leading to a stronger middle class population we also find an interesting mathematical phenomenon of a lens focusing the trajectories in a sense that allows for the coexistence of three saddles and an unstable equilibrium

coupled societies are more robust against collapse a hypothetical look at easter island inspired by the challenges of environmental change and the resource limitations experienced by modern society recent decades have seen an increased interest in understanding the collapse of past societies modelling efforts so far have focused on single isolated societies while multi patch dynamical models representing networks of coupled socio environmental systems have received limited attention we propose a model of societal evolution that describes the dynamics of a population that harvests renewable resources and manufactures products that have positive effects on population growth collapse is driven by a critical transition that occurs when the rate of natural resource extraction passes beyond a certain point for which we present numerical and analytical results applying the model to easter island gives a good fit to the archaeological record subsequently we investigate what effects emerge from the movement of people goods and resources between two societies that share the characteristics of easter island we analyse how diffusive coupling and wealth driven coupling change the population levels and their distribution across the two societies compared to non interacting societies we find that the region of parameter space in which societies can stably survive in the long term is significantly enlarged when coupling occurs in both social and environmental variables

equilibria in extensive games the purpose of this note is to comment on the fundamental difficulties which exist in the foundations of the theory of extensive form games since selten 1973 first pointed out that it is not adequate simply to follow von neumann and morgenstern in replacing an extensive form game by its normal form there have been numerous attempts at defining an equilibrium concept for extensive form games which would fulfil the same role that nash equilibrium fulfils for normal form games notable among these are selten s 1975 two perfectness ideas and the kreps and wilson 1982 notion of a sequential equilibrium but there is also myerson s idea of a proper equilibrium kalai and samet s persistent equilibrium and numerous others the issue is particularly pressing in the study of non cooperative bargaining games with imperfect or incomplete information here sequential equilibrium has been the idea most used partly because it is couched in terms consistent with orthodox bayesian decision theory and partly because it is technically easier to apply than for example selten s trembling hand perfect idea among other authors rubinstein 1983b has noted how sensitive such analyses including his own 1983a paper are to the conjectures players are assumed to form at information sets which will not be reached in equilibrium2 and it is this question which lies at the root of the problem both the power of the equilibrium ideas under study in producing results3 and their weakness in being difficult to justify lie in the fact that they take into account potential behaviour at information sets which will not be reached in equilibrium in this note two methodological points are made the first is that the problems in justifying the use of the various equilibrium ideas can be traced to a considerable degree to the fact that the game structure has been overabstracted4 in particular the mechanism by means of which the players find their way to an equilibrium is typically abstracted away altogether but an appropriate justification requires taking some view on the nature of this mechanism ideally one would wish to offer a formal model of the equilibriating

ecological threshold and ecological economic threshold implications from an ecological economic model with adaptation abstract this paper investigates ecological threshold and ecological economic threshold by developing an ecological economic model an extension of a population resource dynamics model developed by brander and taylor 1998 the model reflects three critical issues regarding an ecological economic system system boundary non convexity and adaptation the paper elucidates six main findings ecological economic threshold may come before ecological threshold the ecological economic threshold may exhibit a highly context dependent and dynamic nature which suggests the precautionary principle markets do not respond sufficiently to maintain resiliency under an external shock as prices do not reflect thresholds the system can be restored by intervention even after crossing the ecological economic threshold various transitional paths are possible in restoring the system and adaptation affects resilience to a somewhat significant effect which suggests the importance of better information and education because of the complexity of the model i adopt a system dynamics approach for the development and analysis of the model

constant per capita consumption paths with exhaustible resources and decaying produced capital abstract we introduce decay in produced capital and exogenous technical progress to the recent solow model of asheim et al with population growth and observe the possible collapse of the economy given too high a rate of decay enough technical progress can restore sustainable per capita consumption

environmental constraints and sigmoid utility implications for value risk sensitivity and social status abstract friedman and savage journal of political economy 4 1948 279 proposed sigmoid utility theory to model the relationship between social class and risk sensitivity their proposal has not been explicitly modeled to allow for full testing of the concept we argue that sigmoid utility arises naturally from boundary conditions imposed by finite environmental resources that engender competition we also present a sigmoid formulation and examine its empirical warrant by considering economic data from anthropological historical and sociological cases studies standard risk sensitivity measures such as arrow pratt and downside risk aversion provide expectations for which individuals are most risk prone insights from prospect theory indicate under what conditions sigmoid utility may be most useful we consider the implications of environmental constraint in the context of the sigmoid model as an explanation for the nature of political turmoil during the collapse of maya civilization ca ad 850 we consider the role lack of constraint played in the american revolution and we explore how sigmoid utility can enrich our understanding of contemporary american voting behavior

indeterminacy home production and the business cycle a calibrated analysis abstract in this paper i present a business cycle model with one market sector that produces a standard good and another that produces a non market or home good the model can have multiple equilibria and therefore cycles driven only by self fulfilling expectations with low externalities to market production in particular an upward sloping aggregate labor demand as e g in farmer and guo j economic theory 63 1994 42 72 is not required for indeterminacy the effect of technology shocks is also studied in all cases the time series that are generated have properties that are comparable to the real us postwar series

the concept and measurement of subsistence a survey of the literature abstract subsistence is a widely used concept but most of the time its precise meaning is not property stated this study attempts to provide an appropriate exposition of the concept by examining the manner in which it is used and the role it plays in different theoretical analyses and policy formulations it has been shown that contrary to the conventional notion of a minimum standard of physical needs only subsistence is an absolute minimum standard of physical and mental survival and productive efficiency the lowest standard of social desirability is given by the needs of physical and mental survival in addition to these the standard of subsistence includes the needs of physical and mental efficiency for productive living in the society the attainment of a certain minimum of physical mental and social magnitudes provides the standard of subsistence commodities or their characteristics are the needs of this standard income by providing the command over these needs affords an individual the capability to attain it hence income is used to characterize subsistence three different methods of subsistence determination have been identified the most commonly used methods the social and the scientific ones are found to be arbitrary the determination of subsistence from the analysis of the agents declaration or behavior seems to be a better method while the declaration or expenditure based studies suffer from various limitations studies based on the behavior of income earning offer a better direction

economic performance through time prize lecture to the memory of alfred nobel december 9 1993 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

sustained development of a society with a renewable resource abstract a maximin program is applied to a policy of sustaining a simple society whose population is dependent on a resource subject to logistic growth regular and non regular paths are characterized there are continua of both regular and non regular solutions the type depending on the initial conditions a non regular path involves an intermediate part in which the sustainment constraint is not effective all solutions are time consistent and pareto optimal because a problem may not be regular it is not valid to assume that sustainment implies constant utility

privatizing an open access resource and environmental degradation abstract we develop a tractable dynamic model of the exploitation of an environmental resource with endogenous property rights we are able to explain both the evolution of property rights and environmental quality the model demonstrates that the development of property rights may emerge from within a community as a response to the overexploitation of an open access resource in the equilibrium of our model the resource is fully privatized and resource quality is greater than under the open access steady state we show that while environmental quality may initially decline privatizing the resource reduces its exploitation and eventually environmental quality improves

induced innovation and energy prices this paper uses u s patent data from 1970 to 1994 to study the impact of energy prices on energy efficient innovations theories of technological change have focused both on demand side factors which spur innovative activity by increasing the value of new innovations and supply side factors such as scientific advancements that make new innovations possible data on demand side factors are easily obtained but data on supply side factors that influence innovation are not readily available this paper uses patent citations as a measure of the usefulness of the existing base of scientific knowledge citations to previous patents are used to construct productivity estimates which measure the usefulness of the existing stock of knowledge to inventors in a given energy field for any given year these estimates are then combined with data on demand side factors to estimate a model of induced innovation in energy technologies the results indicate that both energy prices and the supply of knowledge have strongly significant positive effects on innovation the paper concludes with a discussion of the implication of this work for environmental policy

poverty trap and global indeterminacy in a growth model with open access natural resources abstract in this paper we use global analysis techniques to analyze an economic growth model with environmental negative externalities giving rise to a three dimensional dynamic system the framework is the one introduced by wirl 1997 53 the dynamics of our model admits a locally attracting stationary state p 1 which is in fact a poverty trap coexisting with another stationary state p 2 possessing saddle point stability global dynamical analysis shows that under some conditions on the parameters if the initial values of the state variables are close enough to the coordinates of p 1 then there exists a continuum of equilibrium trajectories approaching p 1 and one trajectory approaching p 2 therefore our model exhibits global indeterminacy since either p 1 or p 2 can be selected according to agent expectations moreover we prove that conditions guaranteeing the attractivity of p 1 also imply the saddle point stability of p 2 however when p 1 is not attractive numerical simulations show the possible existence of one or two limit cycles an attractive one surrounding p 1 and one endowed with a two dimensional stable manifold surrounding p 2

a bargaining model with incomplete information about time preferences etude d un jeu de negociation strategique sequentiel avec information incomplete caracterisation d une classe d equilibres sequentiels appeles equilibres sequentiels de negociation et demonstration de l unicite de cet equilibre

renewable resources in an endogenously growing economy balanced growth and transitional dynamics abstract we introduce a renewable resource sector into an endogenous growth model of a small economy deriving the transitional dynamic equilibrium the model generates a long run equilibrium in which a resource sector of limited size can coexist with constant ongoing growth elsewhere the key feature of the model is the allocation of labor between harvesting the resource and its use in the final output sector this naturally generates the empirically observed negative relationship between resource abundance and growth we examine both the dynamic and long run responses of the economy to various shocks pertaining to technological production conditions and resource sector parameters

congestible public goods and local indeterminacy a two sector endogenous growth model abstract this paper shows that the congestible public goods can generate local indeterminacy in a two sector constant return human capital enhanced growth model while the productive public good exerts positive sector specific externalities the congestion effect generates negative aggregate externalities the sector specific externalities alone arising from productive public goods cannot establish local indeterminacy without the combination of negative externality in a model with social constant return technology congestible public good generates local indeterminacy if the degree of productive public good externality and the degree of congestion effect are large enough the condition for indeterminacy is independent of the factor intensity rankings the conditions are quantitatively assessed and the required parameter values for the degrees of public good externality and congestion are consistent with the estimated values in existing literature

comparisons of heterogeneous distributions and dominance criteria abstract we are interested in the comparisons of standard of living across societies when observations of both income and household structure are available we generalise the approach of a b atkinson and f bourguignon 1987 3 to the case where the marginal distributions of needs can vary across the household populations under comparison we assume that a sympathetic observer uses a utilitarian social welfare function in order to rank heterogeneous income distributions insofar as any individual can play the role of the observer we take the unanimity point of view according to which the planner s judgements have to comply with a certain number of basic normative principles we impose increasingly restrictive conditions on the household s utility function and we investigate their effects on the resulting rankings of the distributions this leads us to propose four dominance criteria that can be used for providing an unambiguous ranking of income distributions for heterogeneous populations

the policy roots of socioeconomic stagnation and environmental implosion latin america 1950 2000 abstract the persistence of growth and its equity and environmental effects heavily depend on the composition of asset investments physical human and natural capital are the key assets behind the development process market failures tend to affect the accumulation of such assets asymmetrically leading to underinvestment in human and natural capital public policy in latin america has generally exacerbated such market failures by promoting physical capital investments using massive public subsidies instead of relying on the expansion of public and semipublic assets that complement physical capital the result economic stagnation deep social inequities and environmental destruction

testing the induced innovation hypothesis an error correction model of south african agriculture abstract this paper applies cointegration techniques to a model of induced innovation based on the two stage constant elasticity of substitution ces production function this approach results in direct tests of the inducement hypothesis which are applied to data for south african commercial agriculture for the period 1947 1991 south african data is used because the policy changes have been substantial enough that the factor and price ratios have turning points rather than being monotonic the time series properties of the variables are checked cointegration is established and an error correction model ecm constructed allowing factor substitution to be separated from technological change finally the ecm formulation is subjected to causality tests which show that both the factor price ratios and r d and extension expenditures are granger prior to the factor saving biases of technological change thus each stage of the analysis corroborates the inducement hypothesis however straightforward price inducement is only part of the explanation of changes in factor ratios policy induced innovation in response to tax concessions and subsidised credit is also present

harvesting dynamics in protected and unprotected areas we propose a dynamic model for studying the time evolution of fish stocks in an environment divided into two adjacent zones with different fishing policies we analyze two particular harvesting methods constant fishing effort and profit maximization in this case some agents engage in competition based on maximization of individual profit whereas others cooperate the asymptotic behavior of the system pinpoints that even if the presence of a reserve area leads to higher levels of sustainability in exploiting fish stocks attention should be paid in properly regulating the harvesting activity in order to avoid severe depletion of the resource

the comparison of multi dimensioned distributions of economic status the literature on inequality measurement has been largely concerned with single dimensioned indicators this paper explores some of the issues which arise when there are several dimensions to inequality and these are not readily reduced to a single index concentrating particularly on the two dimensioned case we make use of results on multi variate stochastic dominance in portfolio theory extending these and applying them to the measurement of inequality the use of the dominance conditions is illustrated by an application to the international distribution of income and life expectancy

georgescu roegen versus solow stiglitz daly is right to be concerned about our society s use of resources environmental degradation and the wasteful use of natural resources or any resources for that matter are of concern daly s tirade concerning our work seems motivated by two concerns a lack of consistency with basic laws of physics and the alleged implication that growth can continue unabated without eventually facing constraints imposed by the limited supply of natural resources part of the problem arises from a lack of understanding of the role of the kind of analytic models that we and others have formulated they are intended to help us answer questions like for the intermediate run for the next 50 60 years is it possible that growth can be sustained what does this possibility entail we write down models as if they extend out to infinity but no one takes these limits seriously for one thing an exponential increase in the population presents almost unimaginable problems of congestion on our limited planet in this intermediate run capital can substitute for natural resources and this is true even though capital itself uses resources more precise machines made out of resources that are relatively abundant can reduce wastage of resources that are relatively scarce technical change some of which is the result of investments in rd and increased efficiency in production may imply less wastage of bauxite and less coal or oil to produce the energy used to make a pound of aluminum or consider the resources that were required to run a regression only a half century ago pounds and pounds of heavy calculating machines replaced by mere ounces of a modern calculator changes in technology also allow us to recycle resources more efficiently so that the amount that is not recaptured for future production may be reduced perhaps the most important question is where does all of this lead us resources are scarce and markets when they function well reflect that scarcity economizing on the use of resources there are important instances especially where the environment and natural resources are concerned where markets do not work well there are for instance the classic problems posed by pollution externalities when markets do not

subsistence substitutability and sustainability in consumption we propose a representation of individual preferences with a subsistence requirement in consumption and examine its implications for substitutability and sustainability specifically we generalize the standard constant elasticity of substitution ces utility specification for manufactured goods and environmental services by adding a subsistence requirement for environmental services we find that the hicksian elasticity of substitution strictly monotonically increases with the consumption of environmental services above the subsistence requirement and approaches the standard ces value as consumption becomes very large whether the two goods are market substitutes depends on the level of income we further show that the subsistence requirement may jeopardize the existence of an intertemporally optimal and sustainable consumption path our results have important implications for growth development and environmental policy

can environmental taxation stimulate growth the role of indeterminacy in endogenous growth models with environmental externalities abstract this paper examines the effects of environmental taxation on long run growth in an infinitely lived representative agent model of endogenous growth with negative pollution externalities the novelty of this paper lies in its investigation of how the long run effects of environmental taxes are affected by the possible emergence of indeterminacy of equilibria in romer s 1986 increasing returns and long run growth journal of political economy 94 1002 1037 learning by doing model with endogenous labor supply the analysis shows that environmental taxation generally enhances harms long run growth when the balanced growth path is indeterminate determinate

population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond this paper develops a unied growth model that captures the historical evolution of population technology and output it encompasses theendogenous transitionbetween three regimes that have characterized economic development the economy evolves from amalthusianregime wheretechnologicalprogressis slow andpopulationgrowthprevents anysustainedriseinincomepercapita intoapost malthusianregime wheretechnological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth ultimately a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth andtheeconomyentersamoderngrowthregimewithreducedpopulationgrowth

renewable resources property rights regimes and endogenous growth abstract we extend brander and taylor s brander j a taylor m s 1998 the simple economics of easter island a ricardo malthus model of renewable resource use am econ rev 88 119 138 model of feast and famine cycles on easter island using galor and weil s gailor o weil d n 2000 population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond am econ rev 90 806 28 model of endogenous technological advance where technological change is related to the population we note that different property rights regimes will influence the relative direction of technological advance whether that advance is in harvesting technologies or in technologies that influence the growth rate of some renewable biological resource property rights regimes that favor biological growth rates over harvest rates tend to dampen feast famine cycles while those that favor harvest efficiency worsen such cycles

non separable utility function and indeterminacy of equilibrium in a model with human capital abstract this paper shows that non separability of utility function may produce indeterminacy of equilibrium in the representative agent models with labor leisure choice by using a two sector model of endogenous growth we show that if the utility function is not additively separable between consumption and leisure indeterminacy may emerge even in the absence of external increasing returns

long term substitutability between environmental and man made goods abstract substitutability between environmental and man made goods plays a major role in the sustainability debate the notion of substitutability covers a continuous spectrum with perfect substitutability at one end and poor substitutability at the other in this paper it is shown that if economic growth sustains a sharp distinction emerges between perfect and poor substitutability without any intermediate interpretation of substitutability if poor substitutability prevails environmental resources will eventually constitute the major part of total consumption value we relate our results to baumol s disease and assess the implications of this phenomenon for the compensation of environmental losses

on the collapse of historical civilizations to explain the collapse of historical civilizations scholars typically point to suboptimal behaviors including misunderstanding the natural environment shortsightedness or a lack of institutions we examine the collapse of four historical societies with a model of endogenous population growth and renewable resources employing components of optimal resource management economic growth theory and the moral philosophy of social welfare function choice we find that these collapses may have been socially optimal further we show that the transient behavior of the system is more sensitive to assumptions than the equilibrium behavior and that focusing solely on equilibria may miss key insights copyright 2009 oxford university press