modeling skewness with the linear stochastic plateau model to determine optimal nitrogen rates accurate modeling of skewness is needed to increase the actuarial fairness of crop insurance we test day s conjecture that crop yield skewness becomes negative as nitrogen rates increase and determine how well a linear response stochastic plateau lrsp production function matches the pattern of observed skewness using four long term nitrogen experiments stillwater wheat is consistent with day s conjecture but the skewness for lahoma and altus wheat yields as well as altus cotton yields are not the lrsp assumes normal random effects and can explain only a small part of observed skewness so a new lrsp with skew normal random effects is introduced which comes closer to explaining the observed skewness and should increase the accuracy of nitrogen rate recommendations negative skewness reduced optimal nitrogen rates and positive skewness increased optimal nitrogen rates

technology adoption under production uncertainty theory and application to irrigation technology we propose a theoretical framework to analyze the conditions under which a farmer facing production uncertainty due to a possible water shortage and incomplete information will adopt a more efficient irrigation technology a reduced form of this model is empirically estimated using a sample of 265 farms located in crete greece the empirical results suggest that farmers choose to adopt the new technology in order to hedge against production risk in addition we show that the farmer s human capital also plays a significant role in the decision to adopt modern more efficient irrigation equipment

on the measurement of risk aversion from experimental data attitudes towards risk are measured for households in northern zambia using an experimental gambling approach with real payoffs that at maximum were equal to 30 of average total annual income per capita the results of the experiment show decreasing absolute risk aversion and increasing partial risk aversion determinants of risk aversion are investigated using random effects interval regression model exploiting the panel data structure of the repeated experiments wealth indicator variables are found to be significant and partial relative risk aversion decreases as wealth increases females are found to be more risk averse than males

explaining variation in the use of european litigation strategies european community law and british gender equality policy through the examination of one of the most successful cases of a european community ec law litigation strategy this article develops a general framework for understanding when and how the ec legal system will be successfully used by domestic groups to challenge national policy the authors show how the european legal system actually shifted the domestic balance of power in favor of equality actors allowing a previously weak domestic group to influence the united kingdom s gender equality policy at the height of conservative party rule expanding beyond the british case the article develops a series of hypotheses about when the ec legal tool is likely to be used by groups to influence national policy hypotheses that could account for cross national variation in the impact of european court of justice jurisprudence on domestic policy in areas outside of equality policy

conditional exchange rate volatility and the volume of foreign trade evidence from seven industrialized countries there has long been a concern over the volatility of exchange rates and their impact on the volume of foreign trade however very little attention has been paid to the choice of an appropriate volatility variable as well as the proper specification of the trade equation the sample standard deviation of the exchange rate has been used as a proxy for exchangerate uncertainty in empirical studies that examine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the volume of foreign trade see for example akhtar and hilton 1 and gotur 27 these studies have provided conflicting evidence on this issue it has been argued that use of the sample standard deviation is inappropriate because the empirical distribution of exchange rates is not normal 22 10 in this regard subsequent empirical research 12 36 40 41 11 has employed a moving standard deviation of the rate of change of the exchange rate as a proxy for exchange rate uncertainty chowdhury 11 obtained a clear pattern of results that support the hypothesis that the higher volatility of exchange rates led to a reduction in international trade transactions after the breakdown of the bretton woods system in march 1973 other studies have reported ambiguous results 2 the moving standard deviation used in these studies has been criticized in the literature for a ignoring relevant information on the random process generating exchange rates 18 b underestimating the effect of volatility on decisions 52 c distorting the measurement of the volatility variable by smoothing the series 9 and d injecting an element of arbitrariness into the calculation through decisions about the order m of the moving average 43 3

equal pay by gender and by nationality a comparative analysis of switzerland s unequal equal pay policy regimes across time what explains the adoption of two different policies on equal pay by gender epg and by nationality epn in switzerland and why is the liberal litigation based equal pay policy regime set up by the gender equality act of 1996 much less effective than the neocorporatist accompanying measures to the bilateral european union switzerland agreement on free movement of persons adopted in 1999 to ensure equal pay for workers of different national origins the formation of two different policy regimes cannot be explained by different levels of political will equally different varieties of capitalism cannot explain the setup of the two different equal pay policy regimes within the very same country instead our qualitative comparative analysis across time suggests that the differences can be best explained by a particular constellation of attributes namely the use of different policy frames that is anti discrimination in the epg and unfair competition in the epn case and the different setting of interest politics epitomised by the opposite stances adopted by switzerland s employer associations in the two cases

production risk in multi output industries estimates from norwegian dairy farms farmers who produce multiple outputs are portfolio managers in the sense that they use inputs to balance expected economic return and variance of return this article estimates the structure of the stochastic multioutput production technology in norwegian dairy farming allowing for a more flexible specification of the technology than previous studies we find that an increase in input levels leads primarily to higher output variability and that inputs also influence the covariance of shocks between outputs risk reducing effects of inputs on outputs are primarily present in the covariance functions technical change leads to shifts in the profit distribution over the data period but no welfare improvement for risk averse farmers

incorporating stochastic variables in crop response models implications for fertilization decisions most crop decision models focus on output variation in response to nonstochastic inputs little attention has been given to the effects of stochastic factors on the input use decision a crop decision model is developed to examine the impact of soil moisture on the nitrogen fertilization decision the model is applied to 15 different soil and weather conditions for corn production in indiana based on estimated response functions the profit maximizing nitrogen application rate varies from 156 to 185 pounds of actual nitrogen n per acre we evaluate the expected economic losses arising from applying to one set of conditions a rate deemed optimal for another

does the level of occupational aggregation affect estimates of the gender wage gap the traditional decomposition of the gender wage gap distinguishes between a component attributable to gender differences in productivity related characteristics and a residual component that is often taken as a measure of discrimination this study of data from the 1989 canadian labour market activity survey shows that when occupation is treated as a productivity related characteristic the proportion of the gender wage gap labeled explained increases with the number of occupational classifications distinguished however on the basis of evidence that occupational differences reflect the presence of barriers faced by women attempting to enter male dominated occupations the authors conclude that occupation should not be treated as a productivity related characteristic and in a decomposition of the gender wage gap that treats occupation as endogenously determined they find that the level of occupational aggregation has little effect on the size of the explained component of the gap

measuring the impacts of production risk on technical efficiency a state contingent conditional order m approach this article studies the influence of risk on farms technical efficiency levels the analysis extends the order m efficiency scores approach proposed by daraio and simar 2005 to the state contingent framework the empirical application focuses on cross section data of catalan specialized crop farms from the year 2011 results suggest that accounting for production risks increases the technical performance a 10 increase in output risk will result in a 2 5 increase in average firm technical performance 2014 elsevier b v all rights reserved

testing the stochastic structure of production a flexible moment based approach conventional production function specifications are shown to impose restrictions on the probability distribution of output that cannot be tested with the conventional models these restrictions have important implications for firm behavior under uncertainty a flexible representation of a firm s stochastic technology is developed based on the moments of the probability distribution of output these moments are a unique representation of the technology and are functions of inputs large sample estimators are developed for a linear moment model that is sufficiently flexible to test the restrictions implied by conventional production function specifications the flexible moment based approach is applied to milk production data the first three moments of output are statistically significant functions of inputs the cross moment restrictions implied by conventional models are rejected

fungicide use under risk in swiss wheat production abstract the short run effects of fungicide application on economic risk and the effects of risk on fungicide use in swiss wheat production are empirically explored a quadratic production function model is developed with the help of the moment based approach marginal contributions of fungicides representing controlled inputs and of rain representing uncontrolled inputs to the variances of yield and revenue are analyzed it is not possible to show risk reducing effects of fungicides on yield or revenue at low rain quantities during the vegetation period fungicides have a statistically significant risk increasing effect on revenue increasing risk leads swiss wheat growers to use more fungicide this increase is statistically significant at higher levels of revenue for example when risk is doubled fungicide inputs are raised by 44 at the highest revenue quartile

incorporating risk in production analysis risk is the farmer s perennial problem unfortunately agricultural economists have made little progress in analyzing or measuring production risk in ways that provide useful information for farm management therefore it is fair to say that the social returns to existing research on production risk are probably low it is from this perspective that i will discuss incorporating risk in production analysis my purpose is not to survey the literature or to catalog all the ways risk concepts have been incorporated in production models rather i intend to evaluate critically some of the basic concepts and approaches in the literature and to indicate the directions i believe research must take to arrive at a paradigm for incorporating risk in production analysis that could yield higher social returns in my view the conventional conceptual framework used for risk analysis has not led agricultural economists to ask the most important questions about the effects risk has on agricultural decision making the extension of the static neoclassical production model to incorporate price and production uncertainty has led agricultural economists to rationalize observed behavior in terms of the arrow pratt risk aversion concept this approach has led in turn to qualitative comparative static theorems which are appealing to theorists but have little relation to the decision problems farmers face to increase the relevance of their models and methods i believe agricultural economists need to understand specifically how risk affects agricultural production this in turn will suggest how risk affects agricultural decision making and why farmers are or should be concerned with it my analysis of these issues leads me to discount the hypothesis that risk matters primarily because of the psychic disutility it causes rather i hypothesize that risk matters primarily because production is a dynamic phenomenon and therefore production and price uncertainty affect expected productivity and expected income i hypothesize that these firstorder effects are why farmers are and should be concerned with risk the analysis of dynamic uncertain models shows that farmers optimal decisions are affected by risk whether they are risk neutral or risk averse this suggests that dynamic risk neutral models may be more useful than conventional static risk averse models for understanding the role production risk plays in farm management

on the productive value of biodiversity the paper investigates the value of biodiversity as it relates to the productive value of services provided by an ecosystem the value of biodiversity is linked with a deterioration in the functioning of the ecosystem the analysis examines how the value of an ecosystem can be greater than the sum of its parts first we propose a general measure of the productive value of biodiversity the measure involves an experiment that divides the ecosystem into sub systems that are less diverse keeping aggregate resources constant second the value of biodiversity is decomposed into four components reflecting the role of complementarity scale convexity and catalytic effects this provides new and useful information on the sources determinants and dynamics of biodiversity value

estimating yield gaps with limited data an application to united states wheat the objective of this research is to estimate and analyze the gap between in trial yield potential on farm yield potential and actual on farm wheat yields yield gaps are quantified by measuring how varietal mean yields have changed over time due to productivity increases generated by public and private wheat breeding programs variety performance trial data for kansas winter wheat are used to summarize the evolution of wheat yields over the time period 1985 to 2011 a measure of yield potential is compared to actual on farm yields to derive implications for wheat industry stakeholders persistent and expanding yield gaps between potential yield and actual on farm yield are measured and analyzed producers variety adoption decisions explain a relatively small portion of this gap and producers have become more effective at identifying and adopting yield enhancing varieties over time the largest portion of these gaps was explained by on farm production decisions

income uncertainty and the onset of the great depression income uncertainty and the onset of the great depression income uncertainty contributes substantially to explaining the fall in consumption that marks the onset of the great depression consistent estimates of the variance of income measure income uncertainty from 1921 30 and are produced using a linear moment model this series provides a statistical link between the large erratic swings in income uncertainty after september 1929 and the great crash in the stock market comparison of the behavior of income uncertainty in the 1920s to the pre world war i and post world war ii eras suggests that the experience after the great crash was historically unique i introduction the great depression of 1929 41 can be broken down into several phases i the initial recessionary phase from october 1929 to october 1930 ii the first two waves of bank failures between november 1930 and december 1931 iii the incipient recovery of late 1932 and the impending collapse in march 1933 iv the recovery of the financial system and the economy from the cyclical trough and v the recession of 1937 38 among others many researchers have presented well articulated theories and extensive empirical analyses for each phase of the depression friedman and schwartz 1963 hamilton 1987 gordon and wilcox 1981 and burbidge and harrison 1985 have examined the role of money and monetary policy during the depression brown 1956 examined the stance of fiscal policy during this period bernanke 1983b provided an explanation of the role of the financial crisis in the propagation of the great depression most of this research has focused on the events that turned a recession in 1929 30 that was not historically unprecedented that is it is comparable to the recession of 1920 22 into the deepest slide in the history of the american business cycle explanations of the depression s initial phase from late 1929 to october 1930 however are much less satisfactory meltzer 1976 and mishkin 1978 examined this period and concluded that the fall in output can be attributed largely to the stance of monetary policy and the stock market s impact on the household balance sheet respectively the remainder of the existing literature centers around a debate between temin 1976 1981 and schwartz 1981 that has produced no consensus about the role of monetary and nonmonetary factors in providing the impetus for the great depression hence the period sometimes called the mysterious first year 1 is the least understood of all the phases of the depression we think that recent advances in our understanding of the influence of income uncertainty on consumption expenditures may help explain the onset of the great depression the theoretical work of leland 1968 sandmo 1970 dreze and modigliani 1972 and others has shown that an increase in uncertainty about future income measured as the variance of income results in a reduction in current consumption expenditures under standard assumptions regarding risk preferences recently flacco and parker 1990 included an estimate of the standard deviation of income in a conventional specification of the consumption function from blinder and deaton 1985 and found that this measure of income uncertainty is indeed negatively related to consumption this result estimated using post world war ii data holds up to a number of statistical significance and specification tests romer 1990 examined the relationship between consumer expenditure proxied by various disaggregate spending series and stock market volatility during the first year and a half of the great depression expanding on bernanke s 1983a analysis of investment under uncertainty romer estimates a model of consumer spending on durable goods in the face of temporary uncertainty empirical evidence reveals that inclusion of the volatility of the stock market as a proxy for income uncertainty dramatically reduces forecast errors for consumption of durable goods in 1929 and 1930

the gender gap in early career wage growth in the uk the gender pay gap on entry to the labour market is approximately zero but ten years after labour market entry there is a gender wage gap of almost 25 log points this article explores the reason for this gender gap in early career wage growth considering three main hypotheses human capital job shopping and psychological theories human capital factors can explain about 11 log points job shopping about 1 5 log points and the psychological theories up to 4 5 log points depending on the specification but a substantial unexplained gap remains women who have continuous full time employment have had no children and express no desire to have them earn about 8 log points less than equivalent men after 10 years in the labour market

a short history of the gender wage gap in britain after closing dramatically during world war two the gender wage gap gwg was roughly constant in the decades prior to the equal pay act it closed substantially in the mid 1970s due to the act but the subsequent rate of narrowing has been very slow despite improvements in equal opportunities legislation and convergence in men s and women s educational attainment and work experience within cohort the gwg increases until employees reach their 40s after which it falls the gwg has closed across birth cohorts at all points in the adult life cycle but it remains substantial among those born in 1958 the raw gwg was 16 percentage points among workers aged 23 rising to 35 percentage points at 42 among those born 12 years later the gaps were 9 and 31 percentage points at age 26 and age 42 respectively regression adjustment for human capital investments reduces the size of the gap especially when accounting for full time work experience where differences open up between men and women in mid life following divergence of gender roles in the home results are insensitive to adjustments for sample attrition the gwg is a little larger early in the life cycle in both birth cohorts when accounting for non random selection into employment but selection plays no role later in life policy options for closing the remaining gap are considered

income inequality and the labour market in britain and the us abstract we study household income inequality in both great britain and the united states and the interplay between labour market earnings and the tax system while both britain and the us have witnessed secular increases in 90 10 male earnings inequality over the last three decades this measure of inequality in net family income has declined in britain while it has risen in the us to better understand these comparisons we examine the interaction between labour market earnings in the family assortative mating the tax and welfare benefit system and household income inequality we find that both countries have witnessed sizeable changes in employment which have primarily occurred on the extensive margin in the us and on the intensive margin in britain increases in the generosity of the welfare system in britain played a key role in equalizing net income growth across the wage distribution whereas the relatively weak safety net available to non workers in the us mean this growing group has seen particularly adverse developments in their net incomes

equal pay as a moving target international perspectives on forty years of addressing the gender pay gap this paper provides an overview of the key factors impacting upon the gender pay gap in the uk europe and australia forty years after the implementation of the first equal pay legislation the pay gap remains a key aspect of the inequalities women face in the labour market while the overall pay gap has tended to fall in many countries over the past forty years it has not closed in some countries it has been stubbornly resistant or has even widened in reviewing the collection of papers that make up this special issue we identify four broad themes with which to group the contributions and draw out the explanations for diverse trends theoretical and conceptual debates legal developments and their impacts wage setting institutions and changing employer demands and newly emerging pay inequalities between and within educational and ethnic groups across the four themes we underline how the trends in the gender pay gap capture the dynamism of inequalities as the market power of different groups and stakeholders changes over times three key dimensions emerge from the papers to provide a framework for future research and policy discourse the relationship between litigation and bargaining strategies the interaction between wage setting institutions and new organisational practices and the increasing and range of diversity or equality strands competing for equal treatment we conclude that progress towards closing the gender pay gap will not be easy will require a collective effort of various actors and will not be quick

gender and student achievement in english schools in the uk there is a marked gender gap in the educational attainment of boys and girls at the end of compulsory education 10 per cent fewer boys achieve 5 or more good gcses this gap is by no means confined to gcse it is evident at all key stages furthermore some indicators suggest that the gap has widened over time in this paper we document the evolution of the gender gap at various stages of compulsory education in england we consider the importance of some possible explanations for the gender gap in particular factors that may explain the observed changes over time analysis of this issue is important in the context of research on the gender wage gap however it also raises policy relevant issues in relation to whether changes in the school system can effect a change in the gender gap in educational achievement we find that it is in secondary school rather than primary school where the gender gap has widened most noticeably over time controlling for attainment at the end of primary school makes very little difference to the measured gender gap at age 16 we consider the potential role of school based factors school inputs teaching practice and the examination system we show that the average gender differential cannot be explained by factors that vary across schools i e it cannot be attributed to heterogeneity across schools in how they use inputs however this does not mean that teachers cannot influence the gender gap in attainment we show that the introduction of the literacy hour and numeracy hour in primary schools made a difference to the gender gap in english and maths respectively at key stage 2 however these strategies are too recent to have made an impact on the gender gap observed in secondary school the timing of the emergence of the gender gap in secondary school coincides with the change in examination system from o levels to gcses we argue that the importance of coursework in the gcse examination is likely to be a key explanation for the emergence of the gender gap at age 16 another very important explanation may be a gender differential in skills that are taught and tested in different types of system as well as the mode of assessment we also consider the potential role of social and economic changes that would influence the relative achievement of boys and girls at age 16 however the most compelling explanation to explain the specific timing of the gender gap at this age in the england comes from the change in examination system taken together with the evidence on the literacy and numeracy strategies this shows that education policy can most definitely have an impact on the gender gap in achievement whether this is intended or not

opening the pandora s box trade openness and informal sector growth this article constructs a labour transition model combining the features of job loss and job creation in the formal sector of an economy the theoretical model examines the impact of trade liberalization on net job transition from formal to informal sector in the light of our model we establish certain pre conditions based on simulations under which trade liberalization is accompanied by rising informal sector the model outcome conforms to the empirical evidence of rising informality with openness which we find in 18 central eastern european and former soviet union countries

wage inequality and varieties of capitalism this article draws on a new data set that enables the authors to compare the distribution of income from employment across oecd countries specifically the article conducts a pooled cross sectional time series analysis of the determinants of wage inequality in sixteen countries from 1973 to 1995 the analysis shows that varieties of capitalism matter the authors find that the qualities that distinguish social market economies from liberal market economies shape the way political and institutional variables influence wage inequality of particular interest to political scientists is the finding that the wage distributive effects of government partisanship are contingent on institutional context union density emerges in the analysis as the single most important factor influencing wage inequality in both institutional contexts

do asset transfers build household resilience abstract we estimate the impact of an asset transfer program on household resilience we measure resilience as the probability that a household will sustain at least the threshold asset level required to support consumption above the poverty line using six rounds of data collected over 42 months in rural zambia we construct a measure of resilience based on households conditional welfare distributions to estimate program impacts we find that the program increased household resilience beneficiaries likelihood of being non poor in future periods increased by 44 the program both increased mean assets and decreased variance signaling an upward shift in households conditional asset distributions our method demonstrates the added value of the resilience estimation compared with a conventional impact assessment numerous households classified as non poor are unlikely to remain non poor over time and the relationship between wealth and resilience is driven by changes in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance

aggregate uncertainty capacity utilization and manufacturing investment theory suggests that the level of uncertainty affects the investment decision for firms although the sigh of the effect is ambiguous a garch m estimator is used to model the conditional variance of gdp as a proxy for uncertainty this measure is then employed in a simple model of the investment decision the results are that the level of aggregate uncertainty has a significant negative effect on manufacturing investment in particular periods there were very large effects on average uncertainty reduces investment by about 5 but in 1974 the effect peacked at 48

the choice of techniques and the optimality of market equilibrium with rational expectations this paper shows that in the absence of a complete set of risk markets prices provide incorrect signals for guiding production decisions even if all individuals have rational expectations concerning the distribution of prices which will prevail on the market next period the market allocation is in general not a constrained pareto optimum essentially the only conditions under which for all technologies the market equilibrium is a constrained pareto optimum are those in which risk markets are redundant we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for redundancy of risk markets which turn out to be extremely restrictive

the welfare effects of crop biodiversity as an adaptation to climate shocks in kenya abstract this paper investigates the effects of crop biodiversity on farm income and production risk using a large panel dataset of rural households in kenya we consider three different metrics of in situ on farm crop diversification richness evenness and concentration we apply a partial moments based model to test the effects of each strategy on welfare defined as expected crop income variability variance and downside risk skewness our comprehensive econometric approach differentiates climatic shocks weather and climate change the results suggest that the benefits from greater diversification in terms of enhanced land productivity and lower production costs could surpass the foregone benefit from greater efficiency associated with more concentrated production systems crop richness and evenness each reduce exposure to crop income risk especially for more vulnerable farmers who produce below the expected revenue threshold farmers who rely on greater crop specialization on the contrary are more exposed to crop income risk

the mobility of labor and capital a study in international investment and labor flow list of tables acknowledgements introduction 1 foreign investment a neglected variable 2 the use of foreign workers 3 the new immigration 4 the globalization of production implications for labor migration 5 the rise of global cities and the new labor demand 6 the reconcentration of capital in the united states a new investment zone conclusion notes references index

asymmetry partial moments and production risk partial moment functions are proposed as a flexible way to characterize and estimate asymmetric effects of inputs on output distributions methods for econometric estimation of partial moment functions and tests for input symmetry and location scale distributions are presented a monte carlo study demonstrates properties of proposed tests a study of ecuadorian potato production illustrates the methods hypotheses of input symmetry and location scale are rejected a risk value model based on partial moments implies that fertilizer is risk increasing and fungicides and labor are risk reducing in potato production whereas an expected utility model based on full moments has the opposite implications

testing day s conjecture that more nitrogen decreases crop yield skewness whilecontroversysurroundsskewnessattributesoftypicalyielddistributions abetterunderstandingis importantforagriculturalpolicyassessmentandforcrop insuranceratesetting day 1965 conjectured that crop yield skewness declines with an increase in nitrogen use at low levels but not at higher levels employing four corn yield experimental plot datasets we investigate the conjecture by introducing a a flexible bayesian extension of the just pope technology to incorporate skewness and b a quantilebased measure of skewness shift bayesian estimation provides strong evidence in favor of negative skewnessatcommercialnitrogenratesandforday sconjecture therewasweakerevidenceinfavorof positively skewed cotton yield and little evidence in favor of the conjecture the results are confirmed by the quantile based measure we also find evidence that skewness becomes more negative upon moving from corn after corn to corn after soybean

heteroscedasticity or production risk a synthetic view two veins of literature namely production risk literature and stochastic frontier analysis are examined both fields are concerned of output variation the former due to exogenous shocks the latter due inefficiency by covering the literature from both the fields this review suggests that the concept of heteroscedasticity can be utilized to build a synthesis between these mainly separate branches of literature however the synthetic approach brings a challenge how to differentiate between different sources of output variation this challenge is identified as the main obstacle to meaningfully combine the two approaches

gender economics an assessment concerns about gender equality have jumped to the forefront of public debate in recent years and gender economics is slowly affirming its place as a major field of study this assessment examines where we are in terms of gender equality it reviews the theoretical foundations that can explain existing inequalities and documents the empirical findings supported by the theories identifying avenues for future research and providing a fruitful framework to think about the effectiveness of policies and interventions targeting gender inequality in doing so i provide the foundations against which the contributions in this issue can be placed

more than mean effects modeling the effect of climate on the higher order moments of crop yields this article proposes the use of moment functions and maximum entropy techniques as a flexible approach for estimating conditional crop yield distributions we present a moment based model that extends previous approaches and is easily estimated using standard econometric estimators predicted moments under alternative regimes are used as constraints in a maximum entropy framework to analyze the distributional impacts of switching regimes an empirical application for arkansas mississippi and texas upland cotton demonstrates how climate and irrigation affect the shape of the yield distribution and allows us to illustrate several advantages of our moment based maximum entropy approach

climate and agricultural risk measuring the effect of enso on u s crop insurance predictive models of climatic phenomena can aid in insurance program design and decision making extreme weather outcomes have been linked to the el nino southern oscillation enso which globally impacts agricultural production this study demonstrates that extreme enso events alter cotton yield distributions in the southeastern united states these impacts translate into economically meaningful effects on crop insurance premium rates commercial insurers can use publicly available information to determine if government set premium rates are mispriced and in turn extract economic rents via the federally mandated standard reinsurance agreement by ceding underpriced policies in el nino and la nina years we find that private insurance companies can reduce paid indemnities by 10 15 on average

the employment of married mothers in great britain 1974 2000 this paper analyses the increase in mothers employment in britain over the period 1974 2000 the approach consists of isolating those birth cohorts whose mothers experienced significant increases in employment and relating those to changes in policies maternity rights taxation and childcare the results suggest that maternity rights have induced a change in behaviour toward returning to work in the first year post birth among many mothers who would have otherwise gone back to work when their children were age 3 to 5 this effect has been most marked among better educated and higher paid mothers and has strengthened as real wages have risen through time however the paper also suggests that the increased labour market experience and job tenure of mothers as a result of maternity rights legislation has only had a very modest impact on earnings this is as a result of most of the extra experience being part time which has very low returns

a cost approach to economic analysis under state contingent production uncertainty this article explores the economics of input decision under production uncertainty the article develops a methodology to specify and estimate cost minimizing input decisions under a state contingent technology the analysis is applied to time series data on u s agriculture it finds strong empirical evidence that expected output alone does not provide an appropriate representation of production uncertainty the results provide empirical support for an output cubical technology this indicates that an ex post analysis of stochastic technology appears appropriate the analysis also provides evidence that the cost of facing production risk has declined in u s agriculture over the last few decades copyright 2008 oxford university press

breaking the glass ceiling the effect of board quotas on female labor market outcomes in norway in late 2003 norway passed a law mandating 40 representation of each gender on the board of public limited liability companies the primary objective of this reform was to increase the representation of women in top positions in the corporate sector and decrease the gender disparity in earnings within that sector we document that the women appointed to these boards post reform were observably more qualified than their female predecessors along many dimensions and that the gender gap in earnings within boards fell substantially however we see no robust evidence that the reform benefited the larger set of women employed in the companies subject to the quota moreover the reform had no clear impact on highly qualified women whose qualifications mirror those of board members but who were not appointed to boards finally we find mixed support for the view that the reform affected the decisions of young women while the reform was not accompanied by any change in female enrollment in business education programmes we do see some improvements in labour market outcomes for young women with graduate business degrees in their early career stages however we observe similar improvements for young women with graduate science degrees suggesting this may not be due to the reform overall seven years after the board quota policy fully came into effect we conclude that it had very little discernible impact on women in business beyond its direct effect on the women who made it into boardrooms

incidence analysis of financing unemployment benefits in a partially unionized economy the incidence of unemployment benefits are analysed under alternative financing modes in a two sector general equilibrium model with a segmented labour market where one sector is unionized and queue unemployment exists specific tax incidence as well as balanced budget incidence are analysed the main results are i the distributional effects are identical irrespective of which factor is taxed in the union sector ii the distributional effects are also identical irrespective of which factor is taxed in the non union sector and iii labour gains by a uniform ui tax on capital in both sectors and may or may not gain from a uniform labour tax while capital owners lose in both cases thus what matters for the incidence outcome is which sector and not which factor that is taxed

warming temperatures will likely induce higher premium rates and government outlays for the u s crop insurance program likely climate change impacts include damages to agricultural production resulting from increased exposure to extreme heat considerable uncertainty remains regarding impacts on crop insurance programs we utilize a panel of u s corn yield data to predict the effect of warming temperatures on the mean and variance of yields as well as crop insurance premium rates and producer subsidies while we focus on corn we demonstrate that the subsidy impacts are likely to carry over to other major program crops we find that warming decreases mean yields and increases yield risk on average which results in higher premium rates under a 1 c warming scenario we find that premium rates at the 90 coverage level will increase by 39 on average however there is considerable statistical uncertainty around this average as the 95 confidence interval spans from 22 to 61 we also find evidence of extensive cross sectional differences as the county level rate impacts range from a 10 reduction to a 63 increase results indicate that exposure to extreme heat and changes in the coefficient of variation are large drivers of the impacts under the 1 c warming scenario we find that annual subsidy payments for the crop insurance program could increase by as much as 1 5 billion representing a 22 increase relative to current levels this estimate increases to 3 7 billion 57 under a 2 c warming scenario our results correspond to a very specific counterfactual the marginal effect of warming temperatures under current technology production and crop insurance enrollments these impacts are shown to be smaller than the forecasted impacts under a commonly used end of century general circulation model for even the most optimistic co emissions projection

the effect of britain s anti discriminatory legislation on relative pay and employment pressive increase in the number of women in the labour force during the i970s between i970 and i980 female relative employment increased by i8 3 and female relative hours by i 7 6 in this paper we attempt an evaluation of the possible effects of anti discriminatory legislation by considering the labour market as a whole taking into account not only relative employment but also other factors that through their influence on demand and supply may have affected relative pay the prima facie evidence in favour of the effectiveness of this legislation is very strong and we want to see if this evidence is maintained after considering all these additional factors and their interaction within the context of the labour market in the first section we present the main facts under analysis the analytical framework to consider the joint effect of the legislation on pay and employment and the

poverty risk aversion and path dependence in low income countries experimental evidence from ethiopia in most low income countries rural households depend on mixed rain fed agriculture livestock production which is very risky due to numerous market failures there are few ways to shift risks to third parties the literature has focused on what determines the responses of households in such environments of special concern are path dependencies in which households experiencing failure are prone to further failure and potential poverty traps this paper estimates levels and determinants of risk aversion in the highlands of ethiopia we find high risk aversion and evidence that constraints have important impacts on risk averting behavior with perhaps significant implications for long term poverty the results also suggest the possibility of path dependence and offer insights into links between risk aversion and poverty traps copyright 2009 oxford university press

are litigation and collective bargaining complements or substitutes for achieving gender equality a study of the british equal pay act we present a socio legal case study of the recent equal pay litigation wave in britain which saw an unprecedented increase in the number of claims triggered in part by the entry of no win no fee law firms into this part of the legal services market although the rise in litigation led to greater adversarialism in pay bargaining litigation and collective bargaining mostly operated as complementary mechanisms in advancing an equality agenda although there are limits to the effectiveness of law driven strategies in the face of organisational pressures to canalise and diffuse human rights litigation may be a more potent force for social change than some recent accounts have suggested

why are more women working in britain in britain female labor force participation rose steadily from the second world war to 1977 to explain this we estimate a pooled time series cross section supply function for single year age groups of women the life cycle pattern is explained quite well by the presence of children at a second stage we try to explain the rising level of the cohort intercepts estimated at the first stage real wage growth may be an explanatory factor as cross section evidence suggests it should be finally we point to the 15 rise in the relative pay of women in the mid 1970s caused by the equal pay act this did not cause the expected decline in the relative demand for female employees

current issues in the economics of groundwater resource management the issue of groundwater management remains a practical concern in many regions throughout the world while water managers continue to grapple with the question of how to manage this resource in this article we attempt to bring the most advanced and appropriate tools to bear on the issue of resource allocation involving groundwater our objective is to demonstrate the state of the art in the literature on ways to think about this complex resource and to deal with the important economic issues emanating from its complexity we present the conceptual framework within which economists examine the elements interacting in the management of groundwater resources indicate why the role of the market is limited with respect to the price of this very complex resource and point to the mechanisms that can pull competitive groundwater price and quality graded quantity of groundwater in line with their equilibrium levels in particular we critically review economic models of groundwater use examine the potential for groundwater management discuss the difficulties encountered in the estimation of the relevant control variables of such models and identify the advantages and limitations of the instruments devised for the efficient use allocation of this resource finally we argue that devised regulatory schemes usually ignore the information and knowledge needed for their implementation and we suggest a core of conditions necessary for successful groundwater management reforms

towards a gendering of the labour market regulation debate gender equality has become an issue in the labour market regulation debate now that evidence suggests that regulation is not always a barrier to good employment performance recent contributions have focused on its impact in exacerbating within workforce inequalities including gender inequality this article reveals that the evidence supporting this proposition is thin and inconclusive and questions the search for a cross national relationship between regulations and gender this approach leaves out of consideration the differences in institutional interactions in specific national contexts and the differences in the institution of gender across time and space this critique is developed through more detailed and context specific analyses of interactions between gender and six areas of labour market regulation the article concludes by arguing that simply introducing a general gender variable into non gendered analyses of labour markets misleads more than informs and distracts from the development of regulations to promote gender equality copyright the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

on crop biodiversity risk exposure and food security in the highlands of ethiopia this paper investigates the effects of crop genetic diversity on farm productivity and production risk in the highlands of ethiopia using a moment based approach the analysis uses a stochastic production function capturing mean variance and skewness effects welfare implications of diversity are evaluated using a certainty equivalent measured as expected income minus a risk premium reflecting the cost of risk we find that the effect of diversity on skewness dominates its effect on variance meaning that diversity reduces the cost of risk the analysis also shows that the beneficial effects of diversity

measuring stochastic technology the case of tulare milk production the flexible moment based approach to production analysis is used to measure the stochastic structure of large scale dairy production in tulare county california this approach is flexible because it does not impose restrictions on the relationships between decision variables and the moments of the probability distribution of output the parameter estimates support the hypothesis that second and third moments are functions of inputs and indicate that capital intensive dairies are riskier the implied behavior of a risk averse dairy manager changed markedly when the effects of inputs on the skewness of the output distribution were included in a decision model

risk preferences production risk and firm heterogeneity a new technique is proposed for deriving the risk preference function under production risk and expected utility of profit maximization the derivation depends on neither a specific parametric form of the utility function nor any distribution of the error term representing production risk the proposed risk preference function is flexible enough to test different types of risk behavior and symmetry of the output distribution furthermore our production risk specification allows for inputs with positive and negative marginal risk the econometric model accommodates production risk risk preferences and firm heterogeneity simultaneously norwegian salmon farming data are used as an application

ejido reforms in mexico conceptual issues and potential outcomes the evolving privatization of the ejido system in mexico represents a challenge to standard economic models of common property regimes these models tend to emphasize human interrelations while discounting the ecological conditions which form the environment for human interactions a risk spreading safety first model capturing interrelationships between nature and humans is developed to analyze the potential implications of mexico s privatization efforts recognizing that the majority of ejido lands are communal not parcelized located primarily in arid areas the model supports the prediction that privatization will occur and be most successful on irrigated ejido lands with modern social and economic infrastructure

econometric process models for integrated assessment of agricultural production systems this article develops the conceptual and empirical basis for a class of empirical economic production models that can be linked to site specific biophysical models for use in integrated assessment research site specific data are used to estimate econometric production models and these data and models are then incorporated into a simulation model that represents the decision making process of the farmer as a sequence of discrete and continuous land use and input use decisions an econometric process model of the dryland grain production system of the northern plains demonstrates the capabilities of this type of model to simulate decision making both within and outside the range of observed data copyright 2001 oxford university press

changes in the distribution of male and female wages accounting for employment composition using bounds this paper examines changes in the distribution of wages using bounds to allow for the impact of nonrandom selection into work we show that worst case bounds can be informative however because employment rates in the united kingdom are often low they are not informative about changes in educational or gender wage differentials thus we explore ways to tighten these bounds using restrictions motivated from economic theory with these assumptions we find convincing evidence of an increase in inequality within education groups changes in educational differentials and increases in the relative wages of women

the 40 year pursuit of equal pay a case of constantly moving goalposts progress towards equal pay is elusive this article reviews debates on and prescribed remedies for gender pay equality over the past 40 years of equal pay policy it looks at pay from four perspectives the economic the sociological the institutional and the organisational and explores how and why once an apparent remedy for unequal pay is pursued the goalposts tend to shift the argument is made that the difficulties in securing long term progress may be attributed to a number of factors including the multifaceted nature of pay as a social phenomenon the challenge of pursuing social objectives in a rapidly changing and fragmenting environment the need for political will not technical solutions to achieve redistribution and the potential for gender inequalities to re emerge in new forms

sequential decision making in production models single equation estimates of production models usually are justified by the assumption that production inputs are chosen as part of a one period decision problem yet most production decisions in agriculture are made sequentially in this paper the farmer s optimal input choices are modeled as optimal controls in a stochastic control problem a two period cobb douglas example is used to show that sequential solutions to production problems may yield models which require either single equation or simultaneous equation estimators functional separability stochastic specification and behavior under uncertainty are discussed in the context of dynamic production models

technological change and risk management an application to the economics of corn production the paper investigates the linkages between technological change and production risk with an application to corn the effects of technology on risk exposure are analyzed we define technological progress to be risk increasing risk decreasing if it increases decreases the relative risk premium the analysis is applied to panel data from wisconsin research stations conditional moments including mean variance and skewness of corn yield grain moisture and corn profit are estimated for different sites we investigate how the trade off between expected return and the risk premium varies over time and over space the empirical results indicate that technological progress contributes to reducing the exposure to risk as well as downside risk in corn production although this effect varies across sites they also stress the role of the relative maturity of corn hybrids as a means of managing risk

a comparison of two methods for estimating income uncertainty with an application to aggregate consumption behaviour econometric theory now provides various techiniques for estimating the variance of a variable for which only a single observation is available at each sample point this paper compares the autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic arch and linear moment lm estimated of the variance of disposable labour income as measures of income uncertainty consumer theory postulates a negative relationship between uncertainty about future income and current consumption using quarterly post world war ii data with income modelled as a random walk with drift both arch and lm estimates of the variance of income are included in a standard specification of the consumption function it is found that while noth the arch and lm estimates of income uncertainty provide essentially the same predicted reduction in consumption growth as uncertainty increases the lm estimates yield a statistically significant influence on consumption while the arch estimated do not however both uncertainty measures provide a statistically

understanding the variations of unions litigation strategies to promote equal pay reflection on the british case despite their traditional mistrust of the use of the law and their uneasy relationship with the concept of equality british trade unions have used the law in various ways in order to advance both gender and pay equality since 1970 some trade unionists have been making use of european legislation to improve legal norms and build a strong body of case law they have developed legal expertise and detailed knowledge of the practicalities of the law and have supported numerous claims however this use of litigation has not developed consistently over time and across unions litigation has been quite controversial within the trade union movement this article seeks to investigate what are the conditions under which some trade unionists have decided to rely upon litigation to further their female members interests depending on the time period the article emphasises the crucial role these local trade unionists have played in the development of equal pay litigation the paper builds on a developmental approach that differentiates several stages or phases in which union s litigation strategies for equal pay figure differently

economic reform and informal wage a general equilibrium analysis abstract we attempt to trace the consequences of liberal economic policies on informal wage in a general equilibrium model with formal informal labor markets wage differential vertical linkage and restricted capital movement in particular we show that the informal wage representing income for a vast segment of unskilled labor may actually increase even if more people are employed in the informal segment this also confirms that a contraction in the formal sector employment and the consequent expansion in the informal segment do not necessarily imply impoverishment of the existing set of informal workers

the strength of a weak agency enforcement of title vii of the 1964 civil rights act and the expansion of state capacity 1965 1971 this article analyzes the anomalous case of early title vii enforcement to challenge the standard political institutional pi account of state capacity title vii prohibited employment discrimination but the equal employment opportunity commission was granted scant enforcement resources yet the early eeoc aggressively enforced and developed title vii to solve the anomaly the authors integrate insights from the literatures on social movements and the sociology of law in the absence of conventional administrative resources apparently weak state agencies can expand their capacity through the legal strategy of broad statutory construction this strategy is more likely with the presence of social movement pressure from below the authors argue that state capacity is a moving target with state and societal actors building on legal as well as administrative resources to construct and transform capacity by reconceptualizing state capacity the authors contribute to nuanced explanations of state policy

nonstructural risk attitude estimation this paper presents an econometric approach to risk attitude estimation that does not require joint estimation of the structure of the firm s technology and input decision rules the nonstructural approach replaces optimal input choice with the assumption that farmers optimally manage their portfolios of productive activities by thus shifting the focus from the detailed production decisions of the farm manager to the net returns of the whole farm operation the modeling problem is simplified the nonstructural approach is used to estimate risk attitudes in three indian villages the results are compared to previous experimental and econometric estimates from the same villages

real wage rigidity and optimal commercial policy in less developed countries abstract this paper examines optimal commercial policy in an ldc in which there is a rigid real wage and imports consist of both final and non competitive intermediae inputs the nature of optimal commercial policy depends sensitively upon the composition of imports when export promotion is hampered by import quotas abroad or difficulties in extending export subsidies protection will often be optimal in economies that import intermediates but not in economics that import only final goods the results for the full optimization case establish that there is a general presumption trade policy should be biased in favor of export promotion although there are well defined conditions under which an import substituting regime is optimal

managing environmental risk in presence of climate change the role of adaptation in the nile basin of ethiopia this study investigates the impact of climate change adaptation on farm households downside risk exposure in the nile basin of ethiopia the analysis relies on a moment based specification of the stochastic production function we use an empirical strategy that accounts for the heterogeneity in the decision on whether to adapt or not and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm we find that past adaptation to climate change i reduces current downside risk exposure and so the risk of crop failure ii would have been more beneficial to the non adapters if they adapted in terms of reduction in downside risk exposure and iii is a successful risk management strategy that makes the adapters more resilient to climatic conditions

how long is a piece of elastic the measurement of female activity rates in british censuses 1951 1981 the available evidence concerning the growth of female labor force participation in the united kingdom since world war ii is reviewed the authors first discuss changing concepts methods and results in british censuses from 1951 to 1981 they then reconstruct female labor force trends to take into account the biases identified they propose a series of economic activity and employee rates for females aged 20 59 and for the proportion of part time female employees annotation

pesticide use environmental spillovers and efficiency a dea risk adjusted efficiency approach applied to dutch arable farming pesticides are widely used by crop producers in developed countries to combat risk associated with pests and diseases however their indiscriminate use can lead to various environmental spillovers that may alter the agricultural production environment thus contributing to production risk this study utilises a data envelopment analysis dea approach to measure performance of arable farms incorporating pesticides environmental spillovers and output variance as undesirable outputs in the efficiency analysis and taking explicitly into account the effect of pesticides and other inputs on production risk the application focuses on panel data from dutch arable farms over the period 2003 2007 a moment approach is used to compute output variance providing empirical representations of the risk increasing or decreasing nature of the used inputs finally shadow values of risk adjusted inputs are computed we find that pesticides are overused in dutch arable farming and there is a considerable evidence of the need for decreasing pesticides environmental spillovers

the determination of union and non union wage rates abstract if in a partially unionised economy union workers force up their absolute wage rate how does this affect the wage paid in the non union sector this paper suggests a simple answer first in a small open economy a rise in the union wage will raise the non union wage secondly in a closed economy or one with some monopoly power in world trade a rise in the union wage seems likely to depress the non union wage

gender pay gaps and the restructuring of graduate labour markets in southern europe in this article we investigate whether education job mismatches and growing occupational diversity are important explanatory factors of gender pay gaps amongst university graduates in southern europe namely in portugal spain and italy we use standard decomposition techniques and test the implications of controlling for selection bias our results indicate that over education and greater occupational segregation associated with the emergence of new graduate job profiles are important determinants of earnings inequality whilst our focus is on graduates early careers demonstrating that occupational assignment and selection into employment shape gender pay gaps amongst the highly skilled provides a more pessimistic view on the ability of educational expansion or equal pay legislation to significantly reduce gender pay inequality southern european economies are also particularly interesting to look at since there may be a greater degree of mismatch between the pace of higher education expansion and the changes in the job structure making women particularly vulnerable to over education

does the minimum wage have a higher impact on the informal than on the formal labour market evidence from quasi experiments this article investigates a puzzle in the literature on labour markets in developing countries labour legislations not only have an impact on the formal labour market but also an impact on the informal sector it has even been argued that the impact on the informal sector in the case of the minimum wage is stronger than on the formal sector using quasi experiments of minimum wage changes and thereby exploiting geographical variation of the minimum wage bite i find evidence for this hypothesis informal workers workers without social security contribution experienced significant wage increases when the minimum wage was raised while formal workers did not this result highlights that noncompliance with one labour legislation the social security contribution does not necessarily imply noncompliance to other labour laws such as the minimum wage

comparative statics in general equilibrium models with a unionized sector this paper uses a simple theory of union behavior to examine the consequences of unionization for the basic comparative statics properties of the specific factors and heckscher ohlin trade models many of the standard results continue to emerge despite the union however in contrast to the competitive theory an increase in the price of the unionized commodity can unambiguously lower the real wages of union workers in the short run and in the long run can raise the real rewards of all factors employed in the union sector

the story of the moment risk averse cypriot farmers respond to drought management this article illustrates the importance of estimating risk preferences when evaluating water policy using agricultural production data from the kiti region of cyprus we estimate farmers risk preferences a la antle journal of business and economic statistics 1 192 201 1983 american journal of agricultural economics 69 509 22 1987 and show sensitivity to higher order moments of profit such as skewness we show that farmers in the kiti region are risk averse with risk premiums in the region of 20 of expected profit we use these estimates to analyse the impact of a water quota from the perspective of three policy makers who differ only in their understanding of farmers risk preferences we show in the case of kiti that policy makers who model risk preferences incorrectly that is either a assume risk neutrality or b ignore down side risk wrongly predict the magnitude and direction of input responses and therefore the magnitude of welfare changes this highlights the importance of accomm

family policies wage structures and gender gaps sources of earnings inequality in 20 countries this study uncovers an unexpected effect of family friendly policies on women s economic attainments using hierarchical linear models the analysis combines individual level data obtained from th

swimming upstream trends in the gender wage differential in the 1980s using michigan panel study of income dynamics data for 1979 and 1988 we analyze how a falling gender wage gap occurred despite changes in wage structure unfavorable to low wage workers the decrease is traced to gender specific factors which more than counterbalanced changes in measured and unmeasured prices working against women supply shifts net of demand were unfavorable for women generally and hurt high skilled more than middle and low skilled women by analyzing wages we find support for the notion of a gender twist in supply and demand having its largest negative effect on high skilled women