long run effects of mergers the case of u s western railroads abstractwe provide a retrospective assessment of the effects of the two recent major railroad mergers in the western united states burlington northern atchison topeka santa fe and union pacific southern pacific on the price of rail transport of export grain estimation accounts for selectivity bias that arises because rail prices are observed only for routes with traffic despite concerns that both mergers could harm consumers by reducing carrier competition we find that in the long run the mergers have had negligible effects on grain transportation prices and consumer welfare

the effect of impact fees on the price of new single family housing this paper provides new evidence on the effects of impact fees on housing prices using an inventory of single family housing sale transactions in the 38 cities and towns within king county washington for the period 1991 2000 although the effect of impact fees on housing prices has been examined previously earlier studies have been limited by methodological deficiencies this paper examines the effect of impact fees on new housing and their differential effect on housing price based on the quality of housing and finds that the effect of impact fees on the price of new housing is quite significant and elastic raising new home prices by about 166 per cent of the amount of the fee the increase is 358 per cent for the higher quality homes and is statistically insignificant for the lower quality homes

comparing dynamic multisector models we construct a multisector dsge model with input output linkages and a single type of physical capital that is costly to reallocate across sectors our model with intratemporal costs of allocating capital fits sectoral output data as well as existing models with sector specific capital both in terms of volatility and comovement with aggregate output as well as pairwise correlations between sectors the spectra of sectoral output produced by our model is similar to those from the other models the importance of sectoral shocks in our model is also similar to those from other models however our simplified model is much more amenable to extensions involving occasionally binding constraints than the competitor models that feature large state spaces

designing development planning charges settlement patterns cost recovery and public facilities there is a large body of literature that discusses the control of settlement patterns using traditional planning instruments whilst there is some theoretical literature discussing the use of development charges to influence settlement patterns by addressing market failure there is limited literature examining how such charging is implemented in practice this paper presents the theoretical basis for development charging based on the pigouvian tradition and discusses how these charges can be calibrated it identifies the potential for second best approaches including hypothecation of revenues this approach is distinguished from infrastructure charging which is a cost recovery instrument the irish system of infrastructure charging is assessed as a means of exploring how current instrument design could be improved to align with policy aspirations using the lessons that theory provides

market structure and the efficiency of european insurance companies a stochastic frontier analysis abstract this paper is motivated by the progressive liberalisation of the european insurance market in recent years it uses stochastic frontier analysis to estimate flexible fourier cost functions for european insurance companies separate frontiers are estimated for life non life and composite companies we adopt a maximum likelihood approach to estimation in which the variance of both one sided and two sided error terms is modelled jointly with the frontiers this approach allows us to simultaneously control for the impact of heteroskedasticity on the estimation of scale economies as well as estimating the effect of firm size and market structure on x inefficiency the study draws on standard poor s eurothesys data set of financial reports for the period 1995 to 2001 this provides technical and non technical accounts at year end for life non life and composite insurance businesses in 14 major european countries our estimates suggest that over this period most european insurers were operating under conditions of decreasing costs increasing returns to scale and that company size and domestic market share were significant factors determining x inefficiency larger firms and those with high market shares tend to have higher levels of cost inefficiency

beer and the tie did divestiture of brewer owned public houses lead to higher beer prices in 1989 the united kingdom monopolies and mergers commission mmc recommended measures that eventually led brewers to divest themselves of 14 000 public houses the mmc claimed that their recommendations would lower retail prices and increase consumer choice since that time however retail prices have risen this paper contains an econometric analysis of the transition period the analysis is based on a model of the relationship between retail price and retail organisational form that emphasises how exclusive dealing clauses and strategic factors interact in 1989 in an important decision the united kingdom monopolies and mergers commission mmc recommended measures that eventually led brewers to divest themselves of 14 000 public houses the mmc claimed that their recommendations would lower retail prices and increase consumer choice there is considerable doubt however that their objectives were achieved indeed since the time that the recommendations were implemented retail prices have risen it is not clear however if prices would have increased in the absence of divestiture one goal of my research is to provide an answer to this question the mmc s recommendations created an exceptional opportunity to assess the effects that different contractual arrangements have on retail prices indeed one would like to investigate this relationship ceteris paribus unfortunately however the choice of vertical market structure is normally endogenous and it is impossible to condition on all of the factors that affect the contracting decision in the uk beer industry in contrast the government ordered changes in the type and terms of the contracts under which national brewers could operate their licensed premises increased separation between brewer and publican therefore was not due to changes in economic conditions moreover some premises the free houses that were not owned by a brewer were not affected by the beer orders the existence of a control group facilitates the analysis by strengthening the conclusions that one can draw in recent years economists have moved away from simple theories of vertical

an empirical estimation of the price effects of development impact fees empirical analysis of the price of vacant lots sold in three toronto suburban municipalities during the 1977 86 period shows that development impact fees directly increased lot prices by approximately 1 2 times the size of the fee the extent of the increase was related to city growth rates in general the faster the rate of growth the lower was the price effect of development impact fees the effects of growth however were not consistent across the three municipalities as one municipality appeared to be lowering its fees in response to reductions in growth rates the policy environment within which fees are implemented and the way fees are adjusted appear to influence their effect on lot prices the estimated model also suggests that increases in expected future construction costs reduce current lot prices general increases in the consumers shelter costs tend to inflate the price of vacant lots the expectation of future increases in the cost of land development whether it is due to increases in ma

more evidence on the performance of merger simulations government antitrust agencies must predict the price effects of proposed mergers and chal lenge those predicted to reduce consumer wel fare merger simulation a model of oligopoly combined with demand estimates is routinely used to simulate the effects of potential merg ers gregory j werden and luke m froeb 2006 provide a survey merger simulation addresses the key question regulators must answer would a potential merger reduce consumer welfare however it requires strong assumptions on the nature of competition both before and after the merger occurs the shape of demand and mar ginal cost functions as well as the statistical assumptions necessary to consistently estimate demand given these strong assumptions and the substantial resources devoted to antitrust review it is important to evaluate the accuracy of simulation methodology this paper adds to a small literature that evaluates merger simu lation by comparing predicted price effects to retrospective estimates of the price effects of a

mergers coordinated effects and efficiency in the portuguese non life insurance industry we evaluate the impact on market power and efficiency of a series of mergers on three portuguese non life insurance markets we specify and estimate with a panel of firm level data a structural model which includes preferences technology and a market equilibrium condition firms demand curves are not very elastic firms technologies exhibit scale and scope economies and high cost efficiency scores we find that for the period following the mergers there is no evidence of i an increase in market power through coordinated behavior or ii changes in cost efficiency levels in addition social welfare increased

testing static oligopoly models conduct and cost in the sugar industry 1890 1914 we explore the widespread methodology of using demand information to infer market conduct and unobserved cost components under the hypothesis of static oligopoly behavior direct measures of marginal cost and conduct indicating small market power serve as benchmarks the more competitive models yield better cost estimates the best cost estimates occur when conduct is estimated as a free parameter which in turn only slightly underestimates our direct measure it also tracks the decline in market power accompanying the industry s structural changes the methodology is largely validated although partial cost information can improve its predictive power conclusions are robust to demand function

mergers with differentiated products the case of the ready to eat cereal industry traditional merger analysis is difficult to implement when evaluating mergers in industries with differentiated products i discuss an alternative which consists of demand estimation and the use of a model of postmerger conduct to simulate the competitive effects of a merger i estimate a brand level demand system for ready to eat cereal using supermarket scanner data and use the estimates to 1 recover marginal costs 2 simulate postmerger price equilibria and 3 compute welfare effects under a variety of assumptions the methodology is applied to five mergers two of which occurred and for which i compare predicted to actual outcomes

competition effects of price liberalization in insurance insurance services have a prominent role in modern societies empirical evaluation of market interactions in insurance is however scarce to fill this gap two models are proposed each captures the main features of either regulated or deregulated markets three levels of decisions reinsurance sales effort and prices generate testable predictions on firm behavior with respect to sales effort choices recent evolution of the portuguese market provides a natural data set for application estimation before and after price deregulation reveals a noticeable change in behavior coordination has characterized the interaction under price regulation competition between firms has increased after deregulation copyright 1996 by blackwell publishing ltd

the competitive effects of not for profit hospital mergers a case study applying conventional horizontal merger enforcement rules to nonprofit hospitals is controversial critics contend that the different objective function of not for profits entities should mitigate competitive concerns about mergers involving nonprofit hospitals we analyze a merger that reduced the number of competitors both nonprofit in the alleged relevant market from three to two we find that the transaction was followed by significant price increases we reject the hypothesis that these price increases reflect higher post merger quality this study should help policymakers assess the validity of current merger enforcement rules especially as they apply to not for profit enterprises

estimating market power in a two sided market the case of newspapers the newspaper industry is a two sided market the readers market and the advertising market are closely linked by inter market network externalities we estimate market power in the italian newspaper industry by building a structural model which encompasses a demand estimation

do substantial horizontal mergers generate significant price effects evidence from the banking industry this study examines the price effects of recent us bank mergers that substantially increased local market concentration using the deposit interest rates that banks offer their customers as our price measure we find that over the 1991 94 time period deposit rates offered by participants in substantial horizontal mergers and their local market rivals declined by a greater percentage than did deposit rates offered by banks not operating in markets in which such mergers took place we interpret our results as evidence that these mergers led to increased market power

do mergers improve efficiency evidence from restructuring the us electric power sector abstract this paper analyses the performance impact of the merger wave which took place in the us electricity industry during the period 1994 2003 it does so by analyzing the impact on operating and total cost in electricity distribution while there are past studies of efficiency and productivity effects as well as of prices profits and other outcomes this study differs in several ways first the database consists of many merging and non merging firms rather than only a few on which to base inferences second all of these mergers arise in a single industry greatly facilitating controlled comparison third we have data on the several years of pre merger and post merger efficiency of the specific merging units unlike virtually all past studies finally we employ a powerful nonparametric technique data envelopment analysis to measure the efficiency of each operating unit the results indicate that electricity mergers are not consistent with improved cost performance

competition and collusion in the american automobile industry the 1955 price war movements in total quantity and in quality adjusted price suggest a supply side shock in the american automobile market in 1955 this paper tests the hypothesis that the shock was a transitory change in industry conduct a price war the key ingredients of the test are alternative equilibrium models of oligopoly under product differentiation in nonnested cox tests of hypotheses a collusive solution is sustained in 1954 and in 1956 while a competitive solution holds in 1955 the result does not appear to be an artifact since it is robust in tests against alternative specifications copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

evidence on the accuracy of merger simulations this paper evaluates the efficacy of a structural model of oligopoly used for merger review using premerger data we estimate several demand systems and use a static bertrand model to simulate the price effects of two mergers using pre and postmerger data we directly estimate the price effects the direct estimates imply that one merger resulted in moderate price increases while the second left prices essentially unchanged while some simulations are similar to the directly estimated price effects overall simulations overstate the price effects in one case and understate them in the other explanations for the discrepancies are explored

does concentration matter measurement of petroleum merger price effects we have estimated the price effects of two changes in market structure resulting from two changes in the ownership of gasoline refineries in the san francisco bay area tosco s purchase of unocal s rodeo refinery in april 1997 and uds s purchase of tosco s avon refinery in august 2000 these events provide a relatively unique opportunity to test a price concentration relationship if market concentration is related to price then we should observe prices increase and then decrease by a similar amount following these transactions we do not find evidence of a consistent price concentration relationship

a generalized production frontier approach for estimating determinants of inefficiency in u s dairy farms this article investigates farm level efficiency of u s dairy farmers by estimating their technical and allocative efficiency technical inefficiency is assumed to be composed of a deterministic component that is a function of some farm specific characteristics and a random component by doing this we extend the stochastic frontier methodology in which determinants of technicial inefficiency are explicitly introduced in the model given the inputs variations in efficiency of farms are then explained by both deterministic and random components of technical inefficiency the empirical results indicate that a levels of education of the farmer are important factors determining technical inefficiency and b large farms are more efficient technically than small and medium sized farms both technical and allocative inefficiency are found to decrease with increase in the level of education of the farmer

infrastructure financing and urban development abstract historically additions to public infrastructure necessitated by urban growth have been financed under a cost sharing approach in the last several decades however financing of growth has increasingly relied on land use exactions where new residents pay for the cost of incremental infrastructure despite the emergence of a formal growth control literature there has been virtually no formal analysis of the connection between infrastructure financing and urban development to provide such an analysis this paper investigates three different schemes for financing incremental infrastructure within an urban growth model the analysis compares an impact fee scheme to two types of cost sharing schemes deriving the effects on urban growth and land values of switching to the impact fee scheme the efficient financing scheme is also identified

airline mergers airport dominance and market power effects of northwestrepublic and twaozark mergers on fares at minneapolisst paul and st louis

a note on optimal sectoral policies in production networks i study optimal sectoral policies in models with input output linkages and distortions labor subsidies cannot implement the first best allocation intermediate input subsidies or the right combination s between subsidies to labor and intermediates can optimally correct for network externalities

silver bullet or trojan horse the effects of inclusionary zoning on local housing markets in the united states many local governments are adopting inclusionary zoning iz as a means of producing affordable housing without direct public subsidies in this paper panel data on iz in the san francisco metropolitan area and suburban boston are used to analyse how much affordable housing the programmes produce and how iz affects the prices and production of market rate housing the amount of affordable housing produced under iz has been modest and depends primarily on how long iz has been in place results from suburban boston suggest that iz has contributed to increased housing prices and lower rates of production during periods of regional house price appreciation in the san francisco area iz also appears to increase housing prices in times of regional price appreciation but to decrease prices during cooler regional markets there is no evidence of a statistically significant effect of iz on new housing development in the bay area

aggregation and imperfect competition on the existence of equilibrium we present a new approach to the theory of imperfect competition and apply it to study price competition among differentiated products the central result provides general conditions under which there exists a pure strategy price equilibrium for any number of firms producing any set of products this includes products with multi dimen sional attributes in addition to the proof of existence we provide conditions for uniqueness our analysis covers location models the characteristics approach and probabilistic choice together in a unified framework to prove existence we employ aggregation theorems due to prekopa 1971 and borell 1975 our companion paper caplin and nalebuff 1991 introduces these theorems and develops the application to super majority voting rules we present a new approach to the theory of imperfect competition and apply it to study price competition among differentiated products the central result is that there exists a pure strategy price equilibrium for any number of firms producing any set of products in addition to the proof of existence we provide conditions for uniqueness our model both unites diverse strands of the earlier literature and opens up uncharted areas for future analysis in particular we expand the traditional one dimensional framework to allow for multi dimen sional product differentiation our approach involves twin restrictions on consumer preferences one on individuals preferences the other on the distribution of preferences across society these are generalizations of the restrictions supporting 64 majority rule presented in caplin and nalebuff 1988 to prove existence we apply a new technique of aggregation this technique is valuable in a variety of other problems in the companion paper we use the aggregation result to generalize our earlier work on 64 majority rule and to characterize the relationship between the distribution of human capital and the distribution of income caplin and nalebuff 1991 there are additional applications in statistics and in search theory we begin with a brief review of the early literature on imperfect competition describing in more detail the existence problem and previous solutions section 3 presents our twin assumptions and shows that they cover many standard cases in section 4 we introduce the aggregation theorem and use it in the analysis of demand functions the proof of existence of equilibrium is in section

multiple product firms a nested logit approach this paper proves the existence of a symmetric equilibrium with multiproduct firms using a nested logit model of demand the demand model is parameterized by two variables that characterize different dimensions of preference for variety these reflect intragroup heterogeneity and intergroup heterogeneity a group or nest being the set of products produced by a firm there are then two dimensions to market performance the total number of firms and the range of products produced per firm it is shown that the market equilibrium involves an excessive number of firms but each firm provides too few products copyright 1992 by blackwell publishing ltd

sectoral versus aggregate shocks a structural factor analysis of industrial production using factor methods we decompose industrial production ip into components arising from aggregate and sector specific shocks an approximate factor model finds that nearly all of ip variability is associated with common factors we then use a multisector growth model to adjust for the effects of input output linkages in the factor analysis thus a structural factor analysis indicates that the great moderation was characterized by a fall in the importance of aggregate shocks while the volatility of sectoral shocks was essentially unchanged consequently the role of idiosyncratic shocks increased considerably after the mid 1980s explaining half of the quarterly variation in ip