household demand in rural china a two stage les aids model a complete demand system of chinese rural households is estimated using a two stage les aids model and pooled provincial and time series data from 1982 to 1990 for commodity groups food clothing fuel housing and other commodities demand is price inelastic housing and other commodities are luxury goods while clothing and food are necessities within the food group price elasticities range from 0 005 to 0 63 expenditure elasticities are lower for grains and higher for meat tobacco and alcohol the results imply a gap between food demand and supply growth therefore china will face pressure to import food

relational goods and participation incorporating sociability into a theory of rational action theoretical explanations of why rational individuals would participate in politics remain unsatisfactory this paper addresses the problem by developing and analyzing models which include among citizens payoffs relational goods objectives which depend upon interactions among persons the models predict more participation than do the standard approaches for example under some circumstances persons will be more likely to act if they believe others will act contrary to free rider logic more importantly conditions are identified under which leaders could increase mass activity thus a model is provided of mobilization in terms of the preferences and decisions of a rational individual

production function regressions returns to scale and externalities a number of recent papers have used simple linear regressions in an attempt to identify market structure the extent of returns to scale and possible external effects in u s manufacturing industries the results obtained from these regressions have important implications for several branches of modern macroeconomics as a result the macro literature frequently cites specific numerical evidence from caballero and lyons 1992 and hall 1990 which suggests that there are quantitatively significant increasing returns to scale or external effects in u s manufacturing in contrast it is the argument of this paper that this evidence is not convincing the most robust evidence suggests that the typical u s manufacturing industry displays constant returns with no external effects on the other hand there is significant heterogeneity across industries

long run welfare under externalities in consumption leisure and production a case for happy degrowth vs unhappy growth in this paper we contribute to the debate on the relationship between growth and well being by examining an endogenous growth model where we allow for externalities in consumption leisure and production we analyze three regimes a decentralized economy where each household makes isolated choices without considering their external effects a planned economy where a myopic planner fails to recognize both leisure and consumption externalities but recognizes production externalities and a planned economy with a fully informed planner we first compare the balanced growth paths under the three regimes and then we numerically investigate the transition to the optimal balanced growth path we provide a number of findings first in a decentralized economy growth or labor or both are greater than in the regime with a fully informed planner and hence are sub optimal from a welfare standpoint second a myopic intervention which overlooks consumption and leisure externalities leads to more growth and labor than in both the decentralized and the fully informed regime third we provide a case for happy degrowth a transition to the optimal balanced growth path that is associated with downscaling of production a reduction in private consumption and an ongoing increase in leisure and well being

food demand projections using full demand systems abstract disaggregated food demand projections for developing countries although essential for improved development planning and effective policy making are rare moreover food demand projection models are usually based on aggregated national level data in this article under conditions of weak separability and multistage budgeting decisions a structural model capable of generating regional level food demand projections for a disaggregated set of commodities is developed and estimated using data from an indonesian expenditure survey regional food demand projections in indonesia obtained under a scenario assuming constant real prices are then combined into national level estimates

a theory of real wage growth in ldcs abstract a general equilibrium framework is presented to explain a variety of developmental experiences the demand side is modelled by assuming a system of preferences that incorporate engel s law in a stark way the framework explains why poverty might be impervious to industrial progress in some countries it also explains why countries which have been able to boost the exports of manufactured goods have been more successful in raising real wages in their economies than countries which have continued to export primary goods the framework indicates how the initial conditions in terms of the level and distribution of wealth influence the growth of real wages in an economy

aggregate consumer behaviour and the measurement of inequality this paper presents an approach to inequality measurement based on an econometric model of aggregate consumer behaviour the novel feature of this model is that systems of individual demand functions can be recovered uniquely from the system of aggregate demand functions we present methods for evaluating social welfare based on an explicit social welfare function this social welfare function incorporates measures of individual welfare based on indirect utility functions for all consumer units we develop indexes of inequality based on actual and potential levels of social welfare

demand for food fats and oils the role of demographic variables and government donations a systems model of u s food fats and oils demand is estimated using quarterly time series data for the period 1962 87 demographic scaling is used to incorporate demographic variables and per capita government butter donations in addition to price income and demographic demand elasticities dietary fat intake elasticities are calculated for each of the demographic characteristics included in the study all of the five own price elasticities are statistically significant as are fifteen of the twenty cross price elasticities fourteen of the fifteen demographic elasticities are statistically significant

household food demand in burkina faso implications for food policy abstract chronic food production deficits since the early 1970s have prompted policymakers of burkina faso to emphasize technological research with the goal of increasing the production of the most consumed locally grown cereals sorghum millet and maize meanwhile urban consumers have been developing preferences for rice and wheat cereals that are primarily imported this study estimates demand relationships among food items in ouagadougou burkina the results of the estimation suggest that prices income household composition education marital status and urbanization were jointly important in explaining household expenditure allocations both local and imported cereal consumption responded positively to an income increase however incremental income changes would lead to relatively greater consumption of locally produced cereals by low income households whereas high income households would consume relatively more wheat and rice the household model is then used to demonstrate its relevance in addressing food policy issues by forecasting the levels of urban grain demand under alternative income and demographic scenarios with increased production due to advances in technology the urban demand levels do not exhaust the rural surplus of local cereals but deficits persist in the rice wheat sector the results underscore the importance of technological research since burkina could become self sufficient in at least the production of sorghum millet and maize

prices and quality effects in cross sectional demand analysis a conceptual clarification of the sources and meaning of cross sectional price variability is used to motivate a theoretical and econometric framework for the estimation of cross sectional demand functions quality effects are distinguished from supply related price variability to identify cross sectional demand for disaggregated food commodities an empirical application using data from the 1977 78 nationwide food consumption survey indicates that parameter differences resulting from a failure to adjust cross sectional prices for quality effects are likely to be small for relatively homogenous disaggregated food commodities in demand analysis with cross sectional household budget data it is usually assumed that prices are constant allen and bowley prais and houthakker george and king given this assumption engel functions are estimated where expenditure or quantity is regressed on income or total expenditures family size and other demographic characteristics the assumption that cross sectional price effects are absent or are captured adequately by spatial and temporal dummy variables has not been evaluated empirically whether cross sectional price effects can be treated in this manner has implications for the specification of cross sectional demand functions as well as the estimation of engel functions there is a considerable literature on estimating price elasticities with cross sectional data most of the applications utilize timeseries cross sectional data annual or quarterly household consumption surveys and

environmental and social degradation as the engine of economic growth abstract in this paper a commonly owned resource an environmental or social asset and a private good are substitutes in consumption the households can buy the private good on the market while the resource is available for free the resource is renewable but its ability to regenerate declines with the level of aggregate production each single firm producing the private good has only a negligible impact on the resource but the impact caused by the entire population of firms is considerable in the face of a decrease in the stock of the resource households are induced to increase their participation in market activities in order to raise their income and buy more private goods hence each household contributes to a further increase in aggregate production thus causing additional damage to the resource s ability to regenerate and feeding the growth process given the presence of negative externalities multiple equilibrium paths are possible in this situation social conventions may guide individuals to coordinate expectations and behavior toward a particular steady state one can speculate that the dominance of cultural values favorable to a lifestyle based on a mix of high consumption and hard work leads the economy to converge on a pareto inferior steady state

the testing and estimation of complete demand systems on household budget surveys a recent demand system aids is extended to include family size explicitly and then estimated on indian budget data the estimation using non linear fiml is performed first on pure time series and then on pooled cross section data within and across equation restrictions are imposed and tested the principal results include u a significant price and family size effects on the budget share of an item b sensitivity of test results on homogeneity and symmetry to i rural urban data ii time series cross section and iii inclusion omission of family size c considerable difference between pure time series and pooled cross section estimates and d difference between the expenditure responses of the rural and urban consumer

household demand for convenience and nonconvenience foods states the budget shares are generally more responsive to prices than to real total expenditure additionally the quantities demanded of convenience and nonconvenience foods are generally more sensitive to changes in income and own prices than to changes in cross prices with regard to demographic variates primary users of convenience foods are white households with employed household managers less than 35 years of age

pasinetti versus rebelo two different models or just one abstract pasinetti s pasinetti l l 1960 a mathematical formulation of the ricardian system review of economic studies 27 78 98 model formalizing ricardian growth theory and one of the simplest models developed within the new growth theory rebelo s 1991 long run policy analysis and long run growth journal of political economy 99 500 521 are shown to share the same structure this enforces the thesis according to which many endogenous growth models have a classical flavour the main difference from pasinetti s to rebelo s framework may be interpreted as reflecting the change in the consumption pattern of workers from early to late industrial societies

external effects in u s procyclical productivity abstract in this paper we highlight a new dimension of the aggregate procyclical productivity phenomenon we show that estimates of the degree of returns to scale are larger for manufacturing as a whole than for two digit industries since this difference must be due to factors that are only internalized at the most aggregate level we term it an external effect this result rules out explanations based on own input variation such as true increasing returns and unmeasured factor utilization tied to own activity as the sole explanations for aggregate procyclical productivity we explore several potential explanations of this external effect

on the no arbitrage condition in option implied trees the aim of this paper is to discuss the no arbitrage condition in option implied trees based on forward induction and to propose a no arbitrage test that rules out the negative probabilities problem and hence enhances the pricing performance the no arbitrage condition takes into account two main features the position of the node in the tree and the relation between the dividend yield and the risk free rate the proposed methodology is tested in and out of sample with italian index options data and findings support a good pricing performance

is more always better a survey on positional concerns abstract we use survey data to provide some empirical information about concerns regarding relative standing respondents chose between a world where they have more of a good than others and one where everyone s endowment of the good is higher but the respondent has less than others questions asked about education attractiveness and intelligence for one s child and oneself income vacation time approval and disapproval from a supervisor and papers to write half of the respondents preferred to have 50 less real income but high relative income concerns about position were strongest for attractiveness and supervisor s praise and weakest for vacation time

measurement and determinants of rural poverty household consumption patterns and food poverty in rural sudan abstract a logit model and engel curves are used to study the determinants of food poverty and composition of household consumption among the tenant farmers of the rahad scheme in sudan where land is equally distributed the data support the permanent income hypothesis whereas engel s assumption of declining food shares with increased total spending did not hold for the present sample the logit analysis provides strong evidence for the important influences of better access to productive assets other than land smallersized families higher non farm earnings and farming experience on reducing the probability of food poverty on the scheme policies directed towards the provision of better family planning education extension increased on and off farm employment and improved infrastructure for higher labour mobility can make for effective poverty alleviation programmes in this sector

sensitivity of optimal commodity tax rates to alternative demand functional forms an econometric case study of india this study investigates on a nine commodity disaggregation of indian budget data nss 28th round the sensitivity of optimal commodity tax rates to alternative demand systems les and rnlps optimality is used here in the very special sense of being conditional on observed expenditure and fixed consumer prices the alternative sets of tax rates agree at low levels of inequality aversion but disagree widely at rawlsian levels les is heavily rejected in favour of its one parameter generalisation rnlps the results suggest that les price elasticities should not be used in optimal tax calculations the optimal tax rates imply only a modest redistribution

jealousy and equilibrium overconsumption the idea that the happiness of an individual depends upon the consumption of others is widely viewed as an important feature of our shared social existence recent research in finance has used this idea through consumption externalities to explore asset pricing anomalies consumption externalities potentially break the link between pareto optimality and competitive equilibria and open the door for beneficial government intervention e g lars ljungqvist and harald uhlig 2000 in this paper we delineate two effects that a consumption externality may have an increase in aggregate consumption may a raise the marginal utility of individual consumption relative to leisure and or b lower an individual s utility level we refer to a as keeping up with the joneses henceforth kuj following jordi gali 1994 and we refer to b as jealousy jealousy is a distinct concept from kuj under kuj an individual derives greater utility from additional own consumption relative to leisure when others consume more at the same time higher per capita consumption holding fixed individual consumption can trigger either jealousy so that individual utility falls or admiration so that individual utility rises in section i of this paper we show that jealousy implies that the laissez faire equilibrium consumption level is greater than the optimal level whether preferences exhibit kuj is not necessary for this main result intuitively in the presence of jealousy consumption is similar to pollution overpollution exists because individuals do not take into account the cost of polluting on others not because an increase in economywide pollution makes the return to individual polluting higher similarly overconsumption exists because individuals do not take into account the negative effect of own consumption on jealous others things go in the opposite direction when individuals are admiring in section ii we consider a functional form that encompasses several existing models we show that jealousy determines the optimal tax to correct overconsumption and that kuj is mainly important for asset pricing

capital requirements and business cycle regimes forward looking modelling of default probabilities abstract this paper proposes a forward looking model for time varying capital requirements which finds application within basel ii the model rests on the relationship between default rates and the business cycle by positing two regimes expansion and recession and by forecasting the associated probabilities the default probability for each rating class is defined as the expected value of a default rate whose distribution is a mixture of an expansion and a recession distribution the application to us data over the forecasting period 1971 2002 provides evidence that the model makes it possible to preserve the risk sensitivity of the capital requirement and at the same time to dampen procyclicality

who compares to whom the anatomy of income comparisons in europe this article provides unprecedented direct evidence from large scale survey data on both the intensity how much and direction to whom of income comparisons income comparisons are considered to be at least somewhat important by three quarters of europeans they are associated with both lower levels of subjective well being and a greater demand for income redistribution the rich compare less and are happier than average when they do which latter is consistent with relative income theory with respect to the direction of comparisons colleagues are the most frequently cited reference group those who compare to colleagues are happier than those who compare to other benchmarks

less is more the influence of aspirations and priming on well being abstract if resource consumption is to be reduced through economic de growth individuals in industrialized countries may have to accept a reduction in their consumption levels in democratic societies implementing this process requires the consent of a majority of the population however as long as people have high reference levels of consumption lower consumption will induce feelings of loss and hence evoke resistance this paper summarizes recent experimental evidence on some of the factors that determine the utility costs involved in decreasing consumption the results suggest that the acceptance of economic de growth would be facilitated if people s material aspirations were moderated and the extent to which material achievements are emphasized in our daily environment were reduced an analysis of the financial and economic crisis that developed during 2008 suggests that it will not contribute to either of these points rather by increasing the public s focus on the economic sphere even beyond pre crisis levels it may lead to a further decrease in the acceptance of de growth policies in the population

status the distribution of wealth private and social attitudes to risk this paper supposes an individual cares about his her own wealth not only directly but also via the relative standing that this wealth induces the implications for risk taking are investigated in particular such a model provides a natural explanation of the concave convex concave utility described by friedman and savage however there are a number of key differences between the present model and any model based on own wealth alone for example an equilibrium wealth distribution here may have a middle class further the status interaction involves an externality and an equilibrium wealth distribution may be pareto inefficient but also about the implied relative standing in the distribution of wealth has a long but checkered history an early exponent of such ideas was of course veblen 1899 it is indeed a notion which most economists reject albeit usually without explicit comment a notable and articulate exception however is frank 1985 for example see also the references frank cites on pp 33 34 it is however a notion with substantial intuitive appeal and it seems useful to ascertain its consequences before coming to a final judgement as to its merits the present paper is concerned with deriving the consequences of such valuation of status for risk taking what seems to be the sharpest possible model is adopted here this assumes that what is essentially ordinal rank in the wealth distribution enters von neumann morgenstern utility as an argument in addi tion to wealth itself thus higher wealth increases utility not only directly but also indirectly via higher status in the interests of both simplicity and drama it is typically assumed here that all individuals have identical utility functions which are concave in wealth but convex in status section 2 discusses how the model provides a natural explanation of the fundamental phenomenon addressed by friedman and savage 1948 that individuals may simultaneously purchase insurance and participate in lotteries although each individual here has a utility function which is concave in wealth itself utility can nevertheless be convex in wealth over some range when the indirect effect via status is included this effect is enhanced by the convexity of utility in status but will follow in any case if increasing wealth entails moving up in status much more rapidly than losing wealth entails moving down it is shown

a note on optimal commodity taxation in india abstract optimal commodity tax rates are calculated and their redistributive impact is studied in the indian context using a new piglog demand system introduced in coondoo and majumder 1987 the results are compared with those obtained by ray 1986 on the same data using les and rnlps

budget share demographic translation and the aggregate almost ideal demand system abstract this paper introduces budget share demographic translation in the almost ideal demand system aids and explores its implications for aggregation over consuming units it os shown that under certain conditions the joint distribution of expenditure and demographic characteristics plays an explicit role in the aggregate aids empirical evidence based on italian data is provided and the implied expenditure pattern for a number of combinations of expenditures and household characteristics derived from the estimated aggregate aids the empirical results suggest that the usual rejection of the homogeneity restriction in aggregate demand systems might have to do with the improper treatment of the aggregation issue

estimation of complete demand systems from household budget data the linear and quadratic expenditure systems in this paper we explore two issues in empirical demand analysis the estimation of complete systems of demand equations using household budget data section i and the incorporation of demographic characteristics into such systems section ii although there are numerous studies which use time series data to estimate complete demand systems and many which estimate engel curves from household budget data there are virtually none which combine budget data from different periods to estimate complete systems since each budget study corresponds to a single price situation one might conjecture that estimation of complete systems would not be possible unless budget studies were available from a large number of periods this is incorrect in section i we argue that interesting complete demand systems can be estimated from a small number of budget studies despite the limited price variability represented in such data to demonstrate this we use budget study data for two periods to estimate a pair of related demand systems the familiar linear expenditure system les and a quadratic expenditure system qes a generalization of les in which the demand equations are quadratic in total expenditure the inclusion of demographic variables in the analysis of household consumption patterns is desirable because there are likely to be systematic differences in the consumption behavior of households with different demographic characteristics but the effects of demographic characteristics have seldom been studied within the framework of complete demand systems in section ii we propose translating as a general method for incorporating demographic variables into complete systems of demand equations this method has not previously been discussed as a general technique for bringing demographic variables into demand systems although it has been employed in several studies to improve the estimates of the les and the qes presented in section i we reestimate these two systems using translating to incorporate family size

aggregate consumer behavior and household equivalence scales this article presents estimates of household equivalence scales broken down by demographic characteristics of u s households separate estimates are given by family size age of head region race and urban versus rural residence commodity specific scales are presented for five separate commodity groups energy food consumer goods capital services and other services the estimates are obtained from an econometric model of aggregate consumer behavior the parameters of this model are estimated by combining aggregate time series and individual cross section data

irreversible decisions and record setting news principles in the now classical real options theory the price of an underlying asset is modeled as a geometric brownian motion and optimal exercise strategies are described by simple explicit formulas this paper extends the classical theory to allow any geometric levy process to model prices such processes may account for fat tails and skewness of probability distributions of commodity prices the optimal exercise strategies are specified in the paper in terms of statistics of record setting low or high prices the formulas derived extend those observed in the gaussian case but the form of the result is novel even for that case jel d81 g3