explaining the deteriorating entry earnings of canada s immigrant cohorts 1966 2000 abstract using the 1981 1986 1991 1996 and 2001 canadian censuses we explore causes of the deterioration in entry earnings of successive cohorts of immigrant men and women roughly one third of the deterioration is explained by compositional shifts in language ability and region of birth we find no evidence of a decline in the returns to foreign education for either immigrant men or immigrant women but a definite deterioration in the returns to foreign labour market experience most strongly among men from non traditional source countries we can explain roughly two thirds of the male and one half of the female deterioration without any reference to entry labour market conditions when we also account for entry conditions our results suggest canada s immigrants of the late 1990s would otherwise have enjoyed entry earnings equal to or higher than their counterparts of the 1960s

are estimates of earnings inequality sensitive to measurement choices a case study of canada in the 1980s while it is necessary that researchers make choices in order to estimate inequality the reasons for the measurement choices and their impact on inequality estimates have not been widely assessed this paper uses canadian data from the 1980s to analyse whether inequality estimates are sensitive to common measurement choices seemingly minor technical choices about the treatment of outlying observations such as the use of top income coded data exclusion of very high and low observations and differences among data sets in the capture of very high observations affect estimates of inequality further the impact of the treatment of outlying observations on inequality estimates are at least as large as the impact of measurement choices of a conceptual nature such as the income definition and population selection the sensitivity of inequality estimates to measurement choices which often remain invisible affect inferences about the relative degree of inequality at a given point in time among countries and

joint confidence intervals for income shares and lorenz curves in a recent paper beach and davidson 1983 extended the principles of statistical inference to lorenz curves and income shares by establishing the asymptotic distribution and covariance structure of a vector of lorenz curve ordinates corresponding to a set of quantile abscissae one can thus use the lorenz curve and income shares no longer just as descriptive devices for summarizing distribution information but now also as analytical tools for comparing alternative distributions and carrying out conventional statistical inference on them it would clearly be desirable however to extend and complement this work by providing a method for computing a set of joint confidence intervals about these income shares and for illustrating graphically a joint confidence band about a set of estimated lorenz curve ordinates the present paper provides a new and simple technique for doing this when analyzing differences between sets of income shares or lorenz curves one typically wants to elicit more detailed information than is provided by a standard joint chi square test on the overall set of shares that is when the hypothesis of two sets of shares being the same is rejected we generally want to know further which particular differences in shares are different from zero and of these nonzero differences which are positive and which negative savin 1980 a natural way of providing such information is through multiple comparison procedures developed in this paper in a recent work richmond 1982 has developed a general method of finding multiple comparison intervals that is particularly suited to the present problem and in this situation appears to dominate other conventional alternatives in contrast for example to scheff s s projection method richmond s approach focuses on a set of primary points of interest income shares among a more general set of points including the lorenz curve ordinates and optimizes the joint confidence interval lengths on this primary set of points since estimated lorenz curve ordinates are built up from underlying income shares these shares perhaps further supplemented are natural choices for the primary set the method however also provides a joint confidence band that geometrically bounds the set of lorenz curve ordinates and interpolated segments between them the present

one security many markets determining the contributions to price discovery when homogeneous or closely linked securities trade in multiple markets it is often of interest to determine where price discovery the incorporation of new information occurs this article suggests an econometric approach based on an implicit unobservable efficient price common to all markets the information share associated with a particular market is defined as the proportional contribution of that market s innovations to the innovation in the common efficient price applied to quotes for the thirty dow stocks the technique suggests that the preponderance of the price discovery takes place at the new york stock exchange nyse a median 92 7 percent information share although most of the classic paradigms in market microstructure concern a security that trades in a single centralized market such situations are becoming increasingly rare in practice fragmentation the dispersal of trading in a security to multiple sites has emerged as a dominant institutional trend this process is of concern to financial economists and regulators because price information and price discovery the impounding of new information into the security price arguably the most important products of a security market have many attributes of public goods as the process of fragmentation accelerates it may be important to determine where the price information and price discovery are being produced 1 this paper suggests a practical econometric approach to this problem the technique is illustrated with an application to u s equity markets many stocks listed on the new york stock exchange nyse trade concurrently on the regional exchanges and the national association of securities dealers national market system nasd nms since a share of ibm stock is the same security whether purchased on the midwest or pacific exchange this is a particularly clear instance of multiple markets nevertheless the expres

the tale of the tails canadian income inequality in the 1980s and 1990s we present new evidence on levels and trends in after tax income inequality in canada between 1980 and 2000 we argue that existing data sources may miss changes in the tails of the income distribution and that many of the changes in the income distribution have been in the tails for this reason we turn to an alternative source in particular we construct data on after tax and transfer income using census files augmented with predicted taxes based on information available from administrative tax data using these data we find that canadian after tax inequality levels are substantially higher than has been previously recognized primarily because income levels are lower at the bottom of the distribution than in commonly used survey data we also find larger long term increases in after tax income inequality and far more variability over the economic cycle this raises interesting questions about the role of the tax and transfer system in mitigating both trends and fluctuations in market income inequality les auteurs presentent de nouveaux resultats sur les niveaux et tendances de l inegalite des revenus apres impots au canada entre 1980 et 2000 on suggere que les donnees existantes peuvent avoir ignore des changements dans les extremites de cette distribution alors que le gros des changements y etait concentre pour cette raison les auteurs se sont tournes vers une autre source de donnees ils ont construit une base de donnees sur les revenus apres impots et les paiements de transfert en utilisant les donnees du recensement ainsi que des donnees additionnelles sur les impots prevus a partir de renseignements disponibles dans les dossiers administratifs on decouvre que les niveaux d inegalite des revenus apres impots sont beaucoup plus eleves que ce qu on a suggere jusqu ici d abord parce que les niveaux de revenus sont plus bas au pied de la distribution que ne le suggerent les donnees d enquetes on decouvre aussi un accroissement plus grand a long terme de l inegalite des revenus apres impots et une plus grande variabilite au cours du cycle economique voila qui souleve des questions interessantes a propos du role de la fiscalite et du systeme de paiements de transfert dans la modulation de la tendance et des fluctuations dans l inegalite des revenus du marche

trading and pricing in upstairs and downstairs stock markets we provide empirical evidence on the economic benefits of negotiating trades in the upstairs trading room of brokerage firms relative to the downstairs market using helsinki stock exchange data we find that upstairs trades tend to have lower information content and lower price impacts than downstairs trades this is consistent with the hypotheses that the upstairs market is better at pricing uninformed liquidity trades and that upstairs brokers can give better prices to their customers if they know the unexpressed demands of other customers we find that these economic benefits depend on price discovery occurring in the downstairs market copyright 2002 oxford university press

inequality in male and female earnings the role of hours and wages the authors decompose annual earnings into hours of work and hourly earnings and analyze male female differences in earnings inequality using canadian data their results indicate that the larger female inequality in earnings is due to a greater inequality in the distribution of hours of work the distributions of wages for men and women are either statistically indistinguishable or more equal for women the authors compare two data points 1988 and 1981 and find the same structure in the gender comparisons also changes between 1988 and 1981 in earnings inequality are generated from movements in the hours distributions copyright 1996 by mit press

does opec influence crude oil prices testing for co movements and causality between regional crude oil prices using high frequency data the co movements among crude oil prices are analysed in order to address the question of regionalization of the world crude oil market time series econometrics in the form of error correction modelling is applied for daily crude oil price data covering the time period 1988 to 2004 and in this framework topics like weak and strong exogeneity among three major oil prices represented by brent opec and texas wti are addressed the empirical results are that causality is most likely bi directional among these crude oil prices and hence rejecting a regionalization hypothesis of the global oil market and also an influence from the opec oil price towards bent and wti which are usually claimed to have a benchmark role

potential pitfalls for the purchasing power parity puzzle sampling and specification biases in mean reversion tests of the law of one price the ppp puzzle is based on empirical evidence that international price differences for individual goods loop or baskets of goods ppp appear highly persistent or even nonstationary the present consensus is these price differences have a half life that is of the order of five years at best and infinity at worst this seems unreasonable in a world where transportation and transaction costs appear so low as to encourage arbitrage and the convergence of price gaps over much shorter horizons typically days or weeks however current empirics rely on a particular choice of methodology involving i relatively low frequency monthly quarterly or annual data and ii a linear model specification in fact these methodological choices are not innocent and they can be shown to bias analysis towards findings of slow convergence and a random walk intuitively if we suspect that the actual adjustment horizon is of the order of days then monthly and annual data cannot be expected to reveal it if we suspect arbitrage costs are high enough to produce a substantial band of inaction then a linear model will fail to support convergence if the process spends considerable time random walking in that band thus when testing for ppp or loop model specification and data sampling should not proceed without consideration of the actual institutional context and logistical framework of markets

changes in the distribution of individual earnings in the united states 1967 1986 using micro data from the current population survey the author examines the sensitivity of conclusion regarding time series changes in inequality to the measure of inequality employed and to the population group analyzed although changes in inequality over time are sensitive to the measure of inequality the author finds a general pattern of stable or decreasing inequality throughout the 1970s followed by a period of increasing inequality based upon a decomposition analysis the author concludes that these changes are not simply the results of the changing employment distribution among groups defined by sex age education or industry instead the rise in inequality results from an increase in inequality within these groups copyright 1992 by mit press

increasing earnings inequality and the gender pay gap in canada prospects for convergence this paper retraces the evolution of canadian women s labour force participation and of the gender earnings ratio across the generations to understand better the prospects for gender convergence in pay using data from the public use labour force surveys lfs and administrative annual earnings data from the longitudinal worker files lwf the paper assesses the role of increasing top earnings inequality in the persistence of the gender pay gap having identified a growing role for the under representation of women among top earners the paper then performs an evaluation and critical analysis of existing gender equality policies centred on horizontal occupational gender segregation and discusses alternative policies for the future

the source of the new canadian job stability patterns this paper explores the causes of the recent change in the canadian job stability patterns using the labour force survey master files 1977 2008 i find that what was previously seen as a cyclical increase in job stability is actually a secular change results indicate that the ageing of the workforce the increased educational attainment and the increased labour force attachment of women play important roles in explaining the aggregate job stability patterns that emerge for education the declining importance of low educated workers is the key and not the rising importance of workers with university degrees with respect to gender the evidence points towards a cohortbased explanation surprisingly the changing industry structure has little explanatory powers finally only the rising educational attainment matters for newer jobs leaving a large part of the increase still unexplained

a new way of measuring the wti brent spread globalization shock persistence and common trends abstract the standard cointegration and the persistence of the spread of the brent wti price have been widely analyzed however no studies have been able to present evidence of both issues jointly so far a novel focus is presented in this paper from the application of the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive fcvar approach which allows the rigidity of the standard cointegration to be solved as result of the application of the fcvar model we identify several degrees of globalization by analyzing the order of integration of the error correction term indeed by using permanent transitory decomposition analysis we present what drives the relationship between both oil crude prices information the findings shown here reveal that the brent wti market is strongly globalized nevertheless the brent wti price spread follows a long memory process and the brent drives the brent wti price structure these results sustain some corollaries on economic policies for economic agents policy makers and business operators

technological change occupational tasks and declining immigrant outcomes implications for earnings and income inequality in canada the earnings and occupational task requirements of immigrants to canada are analyzed the growing education levels of immigrants in the 1990s have not led to a large improvement in earnings as one might expect if growing computerization and the resulting technological change was leading to a rising return to non routine cognitive skills and a greater wage return to university education controlling for education we find a pronounced cross arrival cohort decline in earnings that coincided with cross cohort declines in cognitive occupational task requirements and cross cohort increases in manual occupational task requirements the immigrant earnings outcomes had only a small effect on overall canadian earnings inequality resume changement technique t ches occupationnelles et resultats declinants pour les immigrants implications pour l inegalite des gains et des revenus au canada les auteurs analysent les gains et les prerequis des t ches occupationnelles des immigrants les niveaux d education croissants des immigrants dans les annees 1990 n ont pas entraine une grande amelioration dans les gains comme on aurait pu s y attendre si l informatisation accrue et les changements techniques qui s ensuivent ont entraine un rendement croissant sur des habiletes cognitives non routinieres et un rendement salarial plus grand sur l education universitaire normalisant pour le niveau d education on decouvre un declin entre cohortes dans les gains qui coincide avec un declin dans ce que reclament les t ches en termes d habiletes cognitives et un accroissement de ce que reclament les occupations manuelles l effet de ces changements sur les gains des immigrants n a eu qu un faible impact sur l inegalite des gains au canada

shell shocked the impact of foreign entry on the gasoline retail market in china abstract since joining the wto in 2001 restrictions on foreign entry into china s energy sector have been steadily reduced we investigate the impact of royal dutch shell s entry on the pricing behavior of three varieties of gasoline in the retail market of china using a difference in difference pairwise estimator we show that a year after entry the average absolute price differential of gasoline between two cities increased by around 1 4 before falling the following year in other words shell s entry caused prices to diverge but only for a short period of time the largest price effect was found for highly refined fuels in western cities similar results are found when we examine the effect of entry of the top four foreign retailers policy implications are discussed

trends and contagion in wti and brent crude oil spot and futures markets the role of opec in the last decade abstract this article examines the interconnectedness of wti and brent prices on different resolutions of price movements firstly within a multivariate bekk framework we identify high but volatile correlations with recurring highs around 0 8 and multiple periods of decoupling opec meetings increase the correlation in the short run secondly linear l1 trends reveal that long term movements of wti and brent are driven by the same dynamics confirming the one great pool hypothesis opec meetings have only little impact on long term price trends thirdly we find leading effects of wti over brent by short term trends of several days especially in a negative direction these trends have an asymmetrical effect on volatility negative trends cause a stronger increase than positive trends these findings are of interest to policy makers as well as hedging strategies of crude oil portfolios and provide insight into long term movements of crude prices

changes in the distribution of wages in canada 1981 1992 this article uses microdata to study the changes in the distribution of weekly wages in canada from 1981 to 1992 changes in the distribution are analyzed using lorenz curves and eight different univariate measures of inequality evidence is presented that indicates that inequality is anticyclical increasing during recessions and falling during business cycle expansions moreover after changes in the cycle are accounted for there has been a clear upward trend in wage inequality comparisons between the canadian and the u s distributions show that wage inequality was less pronounced in canada than it was in the united states in the 1980s and was increasing in canada relative to the united states from 1989 to 1992

deregulation and growth in china s energy sector a review of recent development dramatic changes have taken place in china s energy sector over the past decade these changes have important implications for energy consumption trade production and regulatory policies in china and beyond the objective of this paper is to review some of the key issues associated with deregulation and growth in china s energy sector specifically the paper presents a survey of recent reforms in this sector it also analyses the impact of deregulation on energy policy ownership foreign investment and trade and sheds some lights on the sources of growth in china s energy sector

the integration of major fuel source markets in china evidence from panel cointegration tests abstract the paper tests for energy price co movement in china over the new regime as part of a strategy to test for the existence of a national energy market panel cointegration test statistics suggest that not all energy commodities are spatially homogenous in prices and the processes of energy price cointegration are different over time and over groups of fuels the statistics demonstrate china s gradual spatially partial and idiosyncratic energy reform process coal and electricity price series have co moved since 2003 while the national panel cointegration test statistics suggest that gasoline and diesel price series have co moved since 1997 regional panel tests also show that there are apparently differences in the emergence of energy price co movement this suggests that regional energy markets have emerged in china one of the important lessons of the research is that an energy market has to some extent already emerged in china and as a consequence energy prices are much less distorted than previously if correct this fact is of major global significance both in terms of future environmental effects and future trade and investment negotiations as china is seen internationally as a market driven economy

price discovery in crude oil futures this study examines price discovery among the two most prominent price benchmarks in the market for crude oil wti sweet crude and brent sweet crude using data on the most active futures contracts measured at the one second frequency we nd that wti maintains a dominant role in price discovery relative to brent with an estimated information share in excess of 80 over a sample from 2007 through 2012 our analysis is robust

deutsche mark dollar volatility intraday activity patterns macroeconomic announcements and longer run dependencies this paper provides a detailed characterization of the volatility in the deutsche mark dollar foreign exchange market using an annual sample of five minute returns the approach captures the intraday activity patterns the macroeconomic announcements and the volatility persistence arch known from daily returns the different features are separately quantified and shown to account for a substantial fraction of return variability both at the intraday and daily level the implications of the results for the interpretation of the fundamental driving forces behind the volatility process is also discussed the efficient market hypothesis contends that financial asset prices provide rational assessments of fundamental values and future payoffs by implication price changes should reflect the arrival and processing of all relevant new information however the proportion of return variability that can be ascribed to public news announcements is low for example cutler poterba and summers 1989 find that even the largest daily price changes in the stock market generally cannot be associated with any significant economic news 1 moreover proxies for the flow of public information e g the number of news items released by reuter s news service berry and hiowe 1994 or dow jones company mitchell and mulherin 1994 explain little of the overall variation thus if private information is ruled out proponents of rational price formation have to assert the existence of important news items

understanding the wage patterns of canadian less skilled workers the role of implicit contracts understanding the wage patterns of canadian less skilled workers we examine the wage patterns of canadian less skilled male workers over the last quarter century by organizing workers into job entry cohorts we find entry wages for successive cohorts declined until 1997 and then began to recover wage profiles steepened for cohorts entering after 1997 but not for cohorts entering in the 1980s a period when startwageswere relatively high we argue that these patterns are consistent with a model of implicit contracts with recontracting inwhich aworker s currentwage is determined by the best labour market conditions experienced during the current job spell comprendre les patterns de salaires des travailleurs canadiens moins qualifi es le r ole des contrats implicites on examine les patterns de salaires des travailleurs masculins moins qualifi es au cours du dernier quart de si ecle en d epartageant les travailleurs en cohortes diff erentes selon le moment d entr ee dans le monde du travail on d ecouvre que les salaires a l entr ee des cohortes successives ont d eclin e jusqu en 1997 et qu ensuite ils ont commenc e a cro itre les profils de salaires se sont raffermis pour les cohortes entrant dans le monde du travail apr es 1997 mais pas pour les cohortes qui sont entr ees dans le monde du travail dans les ann ees 1980 une p eriode o u les salaires de d epart etaient relativement elev es on sugg ere que ces patterns sont consistants avec un mod ele de contrats implicites de ren egociation qui implique que le salaire courant des travailleurs est d etermin e par les meilleures conditions du march e du travail dont on a fait l exp erience dans la p eriode r ecente de travail

price regulation and relative price convergence evidence from the retail gasoline market in canada this paper explores price regulation and relative price convergence in the canadian retail gasoline market we use monthly data 2000 2010 on retail gasoline prices in 60 canadian cities to investigate i whether the retail gasoline market in canada has experienced a relative price convergence to the mean which is expected given the increased economic integration across canadian provinces and ii whether the introduction of price regulation mechanisms in new brunswick and nova scotia in july 2006 had any impact on the price convergence in these provinces we use a nonlinear panel unit root test and find solid evidence that canadian retail gasoline markets are well integrated across locales however the share of converging cities reveals a significant decline since july of 2006 the impact of price regulation on price convergence is mixed our results indicate that since the enactment of the regulation in all new brunswick cities 9 included in the dataset gasoline prices converge to the national mean volatility of price is also significantly reduced in contrast in the wake of price regulation in nova scotia all 6 cities of the province are non convergent to the mean with increased volatility and overall price level

an imbalanced development of coal and electricity industries in china china s coal and electricity industries have a strong reliance on each other however because of excessive invasion of government it is difficult for these two industries to form a stable reasonable and transaction cost saving relationships but long run disputes and quarrels this paper discusses the pricing policies and transaction relationship between these two industries from the historical perspective it begins with the discussion of coal coal market has become competitive since 1980 due to the system of dual track approach but coal sold to electricity was still tightly controlled by government guided pricing then the paper examines electricity investment and tariff reform unlike coal entry to electricity generation sector was gradually relaxed but generation and retailing tariffs are still strictly regulated as energy demand and prices soared after 2002 coal and electricity enterprises are all unsatisfied with the rule of price setting of coal sold to electricity industry this paper concludes that the deliberate low coal price policy does protect electricity industry from fuel cost fluctuation but harm coal industry allocative and productive efficiency are difficult to achieve in the long run

integration of regional electricity markets in australia a price convergence assessment abstract from an electricity market design perspective it is relevant and practical to know which market structures allow for price convergence and how long this takes to achieve this study employs the phillips and sul 2007 2009 methodology to test for the convergence of wholesale electricity prices across the australian states we identify a long run common price growth pattern that applies to a cluster formed by three eastern states that share common market characteristics and limited physical interconnection we also find another cluster with less competitive market structures that although not interconnected strongly converge towards their own trend these findings confirm theoretical expectations while quantifying the rate of convergence finally we also investigate the role that the carbon tax regime has played in the convergence process with new empirical showing that the previous results are not affected with the notable exception being the case of south australia

gradual reforms and the emergence of energy market in china evidence from tests for convergence of energy prices this study investigates the emergence of energy markets by testing for convergence of energy prices with a new dataset on energy spot prices in 35 major cities in china both descriptive statistics and unit root are employed to test the convergence of energy prices for each of four fuel price series the whole study period is divided into two sub periods in order to reconcile the gradual energy reforms the results show the steady improvement in energy market performance in china especially during the second sub period which suggests that the market appears to be playing an increasing role in determining energy prices while panel unit root tests show energy markets are integrated in china as a whole city by city univariate unit root tests suggest that there are still many regional energy markets probably because energy reserves especially coal vary widely across regions since china s energy economy is gradually moving towards market oriented mechanisms the existing literature may become obsolete soon

cohort patterns in canadian earnings assessing the role of skill premia in inequality trends in this paper we document the pattern of change in age earnings profiles across cohorts and evaluate its implications using synthetic cohorts from the survey of consumer finances over the period 1971 to 1993 wwe show that the age earnings profiles of canadian men have been deteriorating for more recentcohorts in comparison with older cohorts we find this pattern for both high school and university educated workers in no case do we find evidence that the return to gaining experience has been increasing over time nor do we find increased within cohort dispersion of earnings we view these findings as conflicting with the hypothesis that increased skill premia largely explain the observed increase in dispersion of male weekly earnings jel classification j31 o33 ce memoire documente le pattern de changements dans les relations ges gains d une cohorte a l autre et en analyse les implications utilisant des cohortes synthetiques pour la periode 1971 93 on montre que les profils ges gains des hommes au canada se sont deteriores dans les cohortes les plus recentes on ne trouve pas de resultats qui montreraient que le rendement sur l experience accumulee s est accru dans le temps ou qu il y a dispersion accrue des gains a l interieur des cohortes les auteurs suggerent que ces resultats contredisent l hypothese que des primes accrues pour les habiletes expliqueraient l accroissement qu on a observe dans la dispersion des gains des hommes au canada

price discount inventories and the distortion of wti benchmark abstract applying a rolling estimation to the hasbrouck information share model this study investigates the changing status of wti benchmark over time results show the ability of wti in reflecting market conditions decreases sharply and wti s efficiency in processing information has been surpassed by brent s since the second half of 2004 in the short run the wti distortion is related to its price discount problem but the distortion cannot be indicated by contangos in the long run wti s price discount problem coexists with a positive forward curve and both have harmed the price discovery role of wti the rising inventories in cushing significantly deteriorate wti s ability in serving as a world benchmark

the emergence and evolution of regional convergence clusters in china s energy markets employing the new regression tests for convergence club convergence and clustering proposed by phillips and sul 2007 this paper models and analyses the behaviour of china s energy sectors energy market convergence clusters are identified using new price data and their regional spatial distributions are mapped for four major fuel types coal gasoline diesel and electricity the findings are as follows i as yet there are no fully integrated national energy markets in china as more than one convergence cluster is identified for all four fuels ii some regional energy markets can be regarded as quite mature as evidenced by the existence of some highly concentrated convergence clusters connected geographically iii some regional markets remain in a state of transition as witnessed by convergence clusters that are scattered geographically and that are growing in membership iv it seems that there is more regional based integration for coal and electricity than for gasoline and diesel as more convergent clusters were identified for coal and electricity than for gasoline and diesel and v overall china still appears to be in the process of energy market integration as demonstrated by the number and evolution of convergence clusters over time

price ceilings as focal points to reach price uniformity evidence from a chinese gasoline market abstract this paper studies the price uniformity in the chinese gasoline market using station level data of hohhot city inner mongolia we first document that the mode prices of the gasoline stations are consistent with the price ceilings set by the government implying that the price ceiling regulation in the chinese gasoline market may serve as a focal point for the gasoline stations to reach price uniformity we corroborate the focal point hypothesis by providing evidence showing that some stations would jump to the ceilings as their prices approach the ceilings also we find that local market structure distance between stations station capacity market characteristics and past pricing behavior could affect the probability of gas stations to price at the ceilings moreover a higher price ceiling would reduce the probability that stations reach price uniformity our results provide another piece of evidence to the literature regarding the unintended effect of price ceiling regulation

understanding the wage patterns of canadian less skilled workers the role of implicit contracts we examine the wage patterns of canadian less skilled male workers over the last quarter century by organizing workers into job entry cohorts we find entry wages for successive cohorts declined until 1997 and then began to recover wage profiles steepened for cohorts entering after 1997 but not for cohorts entering in the 1980s a period when start wages were relatively high we argue that these patterns are consistent with a model of implicit contracts with recontracting in which a worker s current wage is determined by the best labour market conditions experienced during the current job spell on examine les patterns de salaires des travailleurs masculins moins qualifies au cours du dernier quart de siecle en departageant les travailleurs en cohortes differentes selon le moment d entree dans le monde du travail on decouvre que les salaires a l entree des cohortes successives ont decline jusqu en 1997 et qu ensuite ils ont commencea croitre les profils de salaires se sont raffermis pour les cohortes entrant dans le monde du travail apres 1997 mais pas pour les cohortes qui sont entrees dans le monde du travail dans les annees 1980 une periode ou les salaires de depart etaient relativement eleves on suggere que ces patterns sont consistants avec un modele de contrats implicites de renegociation qui implique que le salaire courant des travailleurs est determine par les meilleures conditions du marche du travail dont on a fait l experience dans la periode recente de travail

innis lecture explorations in medium run macroeconomics medium run macroeconomics refers to aggregate economic phenomena that manifest over periods of 10 to 25 years this area of research has emerged over the last decade as a new and distinct field of enquiry in this paper i overview a set of personal attempts aimed at understanding certain medium run phenomena such as changes in the wage structure changes in the world distribution of income per capita and changes in growth patterns across oecd countries the goal of the paper is to extract general lessons from these experiences in particular i will discuss why models of endogenous technological choice may be a good starting point for studying medium run phenomena jel classification e00 o00 explorations du monde macroeconomique a moyen terme la macroeconomie a moyen terme s attache aux phenomenes economiques agreges qui se manifestent sur des periodes de 10 a 25 ans ce champ de recherche a emerge au cours de la derniere decennie en tant que chantier nouveau et distinct dans ce texte je fais le tour d un ensemble de tentatives personnelles pour comprendre certains phenomenes de moyen terme comme les changements dans les structures de salaires les changements dans la distribution des revenus per capita dans le monde et les changements dans les patterns de croissance a travers les pays de l ocde l objectif de ce memoire est d extraire certaines lecons generales de ces experiences en particulier on discute des raisons pour lesquelles les modeles de choix technologiques endogenes constituent un bon point de depart pour l etude des phenomenes de moyen terme

a longitudinal analysis of earnings change in canada we use tax based longitudinal microdata for 1982 99 to i examine how earnings distributions have shifted ii identify changes in earnings mobility patterns and iii replicate and update beaudry and green s cohort analysis of age earnings profiles we find i increased polarization of men s earnings and marked decline in real earnings of workers aged 20 4 ii general decline in men s earnings mobility while women s mobility has increased for young and prime age workers and iii upward drift in earnings profiles of 1960s 1970s entry cohorts and downward shifts for 1980s 1990s cohorts largely confirming beaudry and green s findings but suggestive of steepening profiles for the 1990s cohorts jel classification code j31 o33 une analyse longitudinale des changements de gains au canada ce memoire utilise des micro donnees longitudinales tirees des dossiers fiscaux de 1982 a 1999 1 pour examiner comment les distributions de gains se sont deplacees 2 pour identifier les changements dans les patterns de modification de gains et de mobilite et 3 pour reprendre et mettre a jour l analyse de beaudry et green faite a l aide de cohortes de profils de gains selon l ge a l aide de ces donnees longitudinales l etude montre que i il y a polarisation accrue des gains des hommes et un declin marque dans les gains reels des travailleurs ges de 20 a 24 ans ii il y a un declin general dans la mobilite des hommes alors que celle des femmes s est accrue pour les travailleuses jeunes ou dans la force de l ge et iii il y a derive a la hausse des profils de gains pour les cohortes entrant sur le marche du travail dans les annees 1960 et 1970 une derive a la baisse pour les cohortes entrant sur le marche du travail dans les annees 1980 et 1990 ce qui confirme les resultats de beaudry et green mais des profils plus a pic pour les cohortes des annees 1990

effective tax and subsidy rates on human capital in canada abstract effective tax and subsidy rates etrs and esrs on human capital investment via post secondary education are estimated for canada in the years 2000 and 2006 the flattening of the federal personal income tax structure in 2001 substantially reduced the tax disincentive for investment in human capital effective subsidy rates also declined as public spending did not keep pace with rising tuition fees the change on the tax side was strong enough to dominate the subsidy reduction according to our main results but disaggregation shows that this result did not hold in all cases results are shown for college master s and phd programs in addition to bachelor s degrees they are also broken down by gender and are shown for the 25th and 75th percentiles as well as the median provincial detail and 1997 results are provided in the case of bachelor s graduates

economic growth regional disparities and energy demand in china abstract using the panel data of 27 provinces between 1978 and 2008 we employed a instrumental regression technique to examine the relationship between economic growth energy demand production and the related policies in china the empirical results show that forming a cross province integrated energy market will in general reduce the response of equilibrium user costs of energy products to their local demand and production through cross regional energy transfer including both energy trade and cross regional reallocation in particular reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level are identified as two important policy instruments to enhance the role of energy market integration the findings support the argument for a more competitive cross province energy transfer policies and calls for more developed energy connectivity and associate institutional arrangements within china these policy implications may also be extended to the east asia summit region where energy market integration is being actively promoted

the evolution of male female earnings differentials in canadian universities 1970 2001 the evolution of academic salaries and the gender earnings gap in canadian universities is analysed using a unique statistics canada data set containing detailed information on all full time teachers at canadian universities over the period 1970 through 2001 male salaries declined across cohorts while female salaries remained stable consequently male female earnings differentials have narrowed recent years have also seen increasing variation in academic salaries for both men and women a gender earnings gap remains the bulk of which can be explained by differences in men s and women s rank and field the unexplained earnings gap has decreased over time on analyse l evolution des salaires et l ecart entre hommes et femmes dans les universites canadiennes entre 1970 et 2001 a l aide d une base de donnees unique de statistiques canada qui contient des renseignements detailles sur tous les professeurs a temps plein des universites canadiennes les salaires des hommes ont decline au fil des cohortes pendant que ceux des femmes demeuraient stables ce qui fait que les differentiels de salaires se sont amenuises au cours des annees recentes on a observe une variabilite croissante des salaires academiques tant pour les hommes que les femmes un ecart entre hommes et femmes persiste qui est attribuable aux differences dans les rangs et dans les champs d activites des hommes et des femmes l ecart qui demeure inexplique a diminue dans le temps

occupational mobility and wage inequality in this article we argue that wage inequality and occupational mobility are intimately related we are motivated by our empirical findings that human capital is occupation specific and that the fraction of workers switching occupations in the u s was as high as 16 a year in the early 1970 s and had increased to 21 by the mid 1990 s we develop a general equilibrium model with occupation specific human capital and heterogeneous experience levels within occupations we find that the model calibrated to match the level of occupational mobility in the 1970 s accounts quite well for the level of within group wage inequality in that period next we find that the model calibrated to match the increase in occupational mobility accounts for over 90 of the increase in wage inequality between the 1970 s and the 1990 s the theory is also quantitatively consistent with the level and increase in the short term variability of earnings copyright wiley blackwell

market emergence and transition arbitrage transaction costs and autarky in china s grain markets using trimonthly chinese provincial grain prices from 1988 to 1995 we estimate a parity bounds model of interregional trade for four subperiods to characterize how multiple aspects of market performance change during the process of economic transition for each period we estimate the extent to which arbitrage opportunities are realized by traders the transaction costs between location pairs and the likelihood that regions do not trade trade restrictions cannot explain the pattern of uneven market development over time infrastructure bottlenecks managerial incentive reforms and production specialization policies all were likely important factors affecting market performance

can energy price regulations smooth price fluctuations evidence from china s coal sector abstract due to the dominance of coal in china s energy mix coal prices have always been a challenging part of pricing reform the recent frequent government interventions raise the key research questions what is the actual impact of price policies on coal price fluctuations and how can forward looking pricing policies be made by proposing a novel classification of coal pricing policies and introducing an expectation and forward looking coefficient the paper examines the relationship between coal price fluctuations and pricing policies using the generalized method of moments gmm method it shows that the lagging coal price and coal demand play a positive role in regulating coal prices while coal supply and marketization have significantly negative effects on coal price fluctuations the heterogeneous impacts of price policies are due to differences in market players expectations policy instruments and the methods of policy release in addition china s coal pricing policy portfolio from 2013 to 2016 exerted synergy effects on the restraint of coal price fluctuations as the forward looking coefficient was considerably low the government s intervention behaviors were obviously biased towards ex post facto responses the paper suggests short run and long run policies to advance marketization of coal prices amid the energy transition

earnings dynamics and inequality among canadian men 1976 1992 evidence from longitudinal income tax records using an extraordinary database drawn from longitudinal income tax records we decompose canada s growth in earnings inequality into its persistent and transitory components we find that the growth in earnings inequality reflects both an increase in long run inequality and an increase in earnings instability the canadian data strongly reject several restrictions commonly imposed in the u s literature and they also suggest that imposing these evidently false restrictions may lead to distorted inferences about earnings dynamics and inequality trends

does human capital matter for energy consumption in china this article investigates the dynamic relationship between human capital and energy consumption using chinese provincial data over the period 1990 2010 considering for cross sectional dependence and parameter heterogeneity across space and over time we identify a significant and negative human capital energy consumption relationship in china specifically we find that a 1 increase in human capital reduces energy consumption by a range between 0 18 and 0 45 furthermore this negative relationship can be attributed to stronger accumulation of post school human capital in eastern china this finding suggests that energy conservation in china could be achieved by improving post school human capital components such as on the job training experience and learning by doing

the dynamic linkage effect between energy and emissions allowances price for regional emissions trading scheme pilots in china abstract china s emissions trading scheme cets pilots are emerging and fragmented markets these emissions allowances markets may exhibit a different fundamental price process from the european union s eu and the united states us emissions trading scheme ets the dynamic linkage effects between energy and emissions allowances prices are investigated for regional ets pilots in china using cointegration techniques the empirical results confirm that in the long run coal oil and natural gas prices are the main determinant factors of regional emissions allowances prices except for the second phase beijing ets pilots however their long run cointegration relationships in the beijing and shanghai pilots are not exactly in line with the guangdong and hubei pilots in the short run the changes in oil and natural gas prices in the second phase beijing ets pilot the natural gas prices in the shanghai ets pilot and the coal prices in the hubei ets pilot are found to have significant effects on regional emissions allowances prices in china finally regional energy pricing inefficiency regional emissions trading market overreaction and their inefficient fundaments may provide major obstacles in reducing the effectiveness of the fossil energy price pass through to emissions allowances prices in regional ets pilots

reversal of fortunes the rise and fall of lifetime earnings of iranian men abstractthe islamic revolution of 1979 the 8 year war with iraq 1980 88 and the collapse of oil prices in 1986 dealt huge blows to iran s economy in this article we use a pseudopanel constructed from annual multiple surveys during 1984 2004 to analyze changes in cohort earnings and consumption through these tumultuous times using well known techniques we decompose the changes in median cohort earnings of men into cohort age and year effects our results show that cohorts born before 1950 who were well into their careers at the time of the revolution enjoyed a steady increase in lifetime earnings however those born after the mid 1960s who started their careers during the revolution and the war with iraq experienced losses relative to previous cohorts in contrast to earnings per capita expenditures do not indicate a declining cohort trend for younger cohorts when we restrict the year effects to cyclical variation only the cohort effects show a rising trend we interpret the difference in

unintended consequences of china s coal capacity cut policy in early 2016 china introduced additional capacity cut policies to rebalance supply in the coal market to match demand that had been reduced by slow economic growth and strict environmental regulation ensuing disruptions to the coal market caused these policies to be revised and subsequently discarded as decision makers tried to find a balance between efficient supply economic and social stability and environmental sustainability this paper explores the causes of these unintended consequences using an extended version of the kem china model the results reveal that full and partial compliance with the capacity cut policies results in a significant gap between supply and demand this suggests that implementation of the policy was technically infeasible even allowing for a significant increase in coal prices and economic costs besides significant differences in coal prices and output profiles are registered across the country we argue that the heterogeneous nature of the chinese coal market and policy compliance was a major factor leading to the unintended consequences rendering a single national price benchmark inappropriate as a policy gauge we propose that the capacity cut policy should be differentiated across regions and even types of coalmines market approaches would be preferable to the command and control instruments and policy distortions that cause excess capacity should be removed

a note on canadian migration to the united states during the 1980s and 1990s considerable media attention had been directed towards the flow of highly talented canadians to the united states in the 1990s there are firm theoretical reasons however to believe that qualitative differences in migration began as early as the 1980s owing to the widening distribution of earnings and the related increased returns to education in the united states relative to canada both of which could result in qualitative improvements in the migration flow us immigration policy remained essentially unchanged during the 1980s but changed markedly in the 1990s owing to the implementation of the canada us free trade agreement cufta and its successor the north american free trade agreement nafta we use a flexible empirical approach to document these changes in immigrant quality using 1980 1990 and 2000 us census data our results suggest that improvements in canadian immigrant quality occurred during the 1990s but these also happened earlier casting doubt on the hypothesis of improving canadi

canadian labour market performance in international perspective my objective is to assess canadian labour market outcomes in recent decades and to compare canada s performance with that experienced in other industrialized countries the focus is on three key dimensions employment unemployment and the structure of earnings although my main purpose in the paper is to examine the canadian record i also ask what we can learn from canada s experience about the causes of some of the salient economic developments in oecd countries the rise and persistence of unemployment in europe and the growth of income inequality in countries such as the united states the united kingdom canada and australia let s begin with the question how well has the canadian economy performed during the past three decades if our reference point is the 1950s and 1960s the answer is likely to be poorly indeed the first twenty five years following the second world war now appear as a golden era since that period real income growth has been slow earnings have become more unequally distributed and unemployment has trended upward reaching levels that would have been considered outside the range of plausibility in the 1960s however most of the advanced countries have experienced a sharp deterioration in their economic performance since the early 1970s the turbulent world economic environment has made it difficult to sustain the kind of outcomes ob

age period cohort decomposition of aggregate data an application to us and japanese household saving rates this paper compares two methods of analyzing aggregate data that is classified by period and age because there is a linear relationship among age period and cohort it is not possible to distinguish the separate effects without employing an identifying assumption the first method which is applied in the economics literature assumes that period effects are orthogonal to a linear time trend the second method which is applied in the statistics literature assumes that the effect parameters change gradually simulation results suggest that the performances of both methods are comparable the results of applying the second method to household saving rates suggest that period effects had a negligible influence in the united states but considerable influence in japan copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

the changing distribution of male wages in the uk this paper uses microeconomic data from the u k family expenditure surveys fes and the general household surveys ghs to describe and explain changes in the distribution of male wages since the late 1970s wage inequality has risen very fast in the u k and this rise is characterized both by increasing education and age differentials we show that a large part of the changes in the u k can be summarized quite simply as increases in eduction differentials and a decline of growth of entry level wages which persist subsequently this fact we interpret as cohort effects we also show that like in the u s an important aspect of rising wage inequality is increased within group wage dispersion finally we use the ghs to evaluate the role of alternative education measures

the dynamics of crude oil price differentials abstract crude oil price differentials are modelled as a two regime threshold autoregressive tar process using the method proposed by caner and hansen caner m hansen b e threshold autoregression with a unit root econometrica 2001 69 1555 1596 while standard unit root tests suggest that the prices of crude oil of different varieties move closely together such that their price differential is stationary the tar results indicate strong evidence of threshold effects in the adjustment process to the long run equilibrium these findings suggest that crude oil prices are linked and thus at the very general level the oil market is one great pool adelman m a international oil agreements the energy journal 1984 5 1 9 however differences in the dynamics of adjustment suggest that within this one pool oil markets are not necessarily integrated in every time period and hence the dynamics of crude oil price differentials may not follow a stationary process at all times although the development of a liquid futures market around the crude oil benchmarks has helped make some distant markets more unified arbitrage is not costless or risk free and temporary breakdowns in the benchmarks can lead to decoupling of crude oil prices

safety nets and index based insurance historical assessment and semiparametric simulation for northern ghana abstract this article considers index based safety nets aimed at assuring participants a minimum income at the village level set by a prespecified poverty line the participating villages collectively manage a pooled budget offering an index based per capita indemnity to the villages financed from a uniform per hectare premium possibly supplemented by an external subsidy the scheme involves implicit cross subsidies in favor of the poorest villages otherwise it focuses on covariate risk leaving it to mutual arrangements to deal with intravillage idiosyncratic risk its design is obtained from a risk minimizing model for the collective of villages with constraints of two kinds the first is the budget that ensures that payments receive adequate finances the second concerns the set of admissible schedules requiring that payments are triggered by a flexible function of only a few variables for this we propose a semiparametric form from kernel learning noting its capacity to combine a priori on the i

the impacts of energy prices on energy intensity evidence from china in this paper we present a review of the deregulation of energy prices in china between 1985 and 2004 and assess the impacts of changes in energy prices on aggregate energy intensity and coal oil electricity intensity we used time series data to provide estimates of energy price elasticities empirical results showed that 1 the own price elasticities of coal oil and aggregate energy were negative in periods both before and after 1995 implying that higher relative prices of different energy types lead to the decrease in coal oil and aggregate energy intensities however the positive own price elasticity of electricity after 1995 probably indicates that the price effect was weaker than other factors such as income effect and population effect 2 the impacts of energy prices were asymmetric over time 3 sectoral adjustment also drove the decrease in aggregate energy intensity although raising energy prices to boost efficiency of energy use seems to be an effective policy tool other policy implications concerned with energy prices such as energy supply security and fuel poverty must also be considered

the law of one price evidence from the transitional economy of china abstract this paper applies the recently developed econometric methods of panel unit root tests and nonlinear mean reversion to investigate price convergence in china the largest transitional economy in the world we find that prices did converge to the law of one price in china for an overwhelming majority of goods and services based on a large panel data set the finding sheds light on the extent of the market economy in china and casts doubt on young s proposition that the economic reform has led to the fragmentation of chinese domestic markets