information and incentives in computing services supply the effect of limited system choices abstract every organization has only limited computing resources that need to be shared by members of the organization rationing mechanisms such as pricing usually are used to regulate the demands for such resources however to derive an effective mechanism for determining the usage or the scale of an organization s computing service is difficult since there are many informational and incentive problems that need to be overcome by incorporating these problems into a game theoretic model this study analyzes the effects of limited system choices on an organization s net value generated from computing service based on the mechanism design approach the optimal incentive compatible mechanism is derived and contrasted with the case where the is department is evaluated as a profit center the results show that limited system choices can have significant effects on the value generated by an organization s computing service also depending on whether the is department is governed by the optimal mechanism or is evaluated as a profit center the effects oflimited system choices can be different managerial implications derived from the study are provided

the role of farming experience on the adoption of agricultural technologies evidence from smallholder farmers in uganda abstractthis article investigates the relationship between adoption of and experience with agricultural technologies we use both non parametric and parametric estimations on data from rural farmers in uganda we find an inverted u relationship between adoption of and experience with agricultural technologies in banana coffee and maize this suggests that farming experience is useful in early stages of adoption of a given technology when farmers are still testing its potential benefits which later determine its retention or disadoption over time thus gradual advances in technology development and continuous retraining of farmers are essential for sustainable adoption of agricultural technologies for some crops

cost allocation revisited an optimality result the resource manager of a firm is faced with capacity and pricing decisions with regard to a congestion prone system such as computer communication facilities difficulties arise since the manager is uninformed of the system demand when the capacity decision is to be made a game theoretic model is developed to analyze the effects of different accounting rules on the elicitation of relevant information and ex post efficiency in acquisition and allocation decisions the key result is that the cost allocation method aided by an anonymous reporting scheme is indeed as asserted by zimmerman zimmerman j 1979 the costs and benefits of cost allocations accounting rev 54 july 504 521 a full information efficient rule achieving optimality both in acquisition and allocation decisions discussions of the main assumptions underlying this result are provided

jumps and stochastic volatility in crude oil futures prices using conditional moments of integrated volatility we evaluate alternative models of the volatility of commodity futures prices based on high frequency intraday data from the crude oil futures markets for the october 2001 december 2012 period these models are implemented with a simple gmm estimator that matches sample moments of the realized volatility to the corresponding population moments of the integrated volatility models incorporating both stochastic volatility and jumps in the returns series are compared on the basis of the overall fit of the data over the full sample period and subsamples we also find that jumps in the returns series add to the accuracy of volatility forecasts

the impact of integrated aquaculture agriculture on small scale farms in southern malawi sustainable agricultural intensification is an urgent challenge for sub saharan africa one potential solution is to rely on local farmers knowledge for improved management of diverse on farm resources and integration among various farm enterprises in this article we analyze the farm level impact of one recent example namely the integrated aquaculture agriculture iaa technologies that have been developed and disseminated in a participatory manner in malawi based on a 2004 survey of 315 respondents 166 adopters and 149 nonadopters we test the hypothesis that adoption of iaa is associated with improved farm productivity and more efficient use of resources estimating a technical inefficiency function shows that iaa farms were significantly more efficient compared to nonadopters iaa farms also had higher total factor productivity higher farm income per hectare and higher returns to family labor

analytical evaluation of volatility forecasts estimation and forecasting for realistic continuous time stochastic volatility models is hampered by the lack of closed form expressions for the likelihood in response andersen bollerslev diebold and labys econometrica 71 2003 579 625 advocate forecasting integrated volatility via reduced form models for the realized volatility constructed by summing high frequency squared returns building on the eigenfunction stochastic volatility models we present analytical expressions for the forecast efficiency associated with this reduced form approach as a function of sampling frequency for popular models like garch multifactor affine and lognormal diffusions the reduced form procedures perform remarkably well relative to the optimal infeasible forecasts

revisiting the role of education for agricultural productivity while the majority of micro studies finds that rural education increases agricultural productivity various recent cross country regressions analysing the determinants of agricultural productivity were only able to detect insignificant or even surprising negative effects of schooling in this paper we argue and show that this failure to find a positive impact of education in the international context is rather a data problem related to the use of enrolment and literacy indicators using a panel of 95 developing and middle income countries from 1961 to 2002 together with the newest version of the barro lee educational attainment dataset we show that education indeed has a highly significant positive effect on agricultural productivity which is robust to changes in the control variables and in the econometric methods applied distinguishing between different levels of education further reveals that only primary and secondary schooling have significant positive impacts while tertiary education remains insignificant finally the effect of education is estimated separately for countries with different income levels results indicate that the coefficient of the education variable remains insignificant for countries from the poorest three income quintiles while it is positive and highly significant for the richest two quintiles this finding can be interpreted as support for the prominent argument claiming that education leads to higher agricultural productivity only in the presence of rapid technical change where education will help farmers to adjust more readily to the new opportunities

growth and poverty reduction in ethiopia evidence from household panel surveys abstract the paper investigates the impact of growth on poverty in ethiopia by analysing panel data covering 1994 97 a period of economic recovery driven by peace good weather and much improved macroeconomic management the analysis of poverty shows land ownership education type of crops planted occupations in urban areas dependency ratios and location to be important determinants the characteristics of households that fell into or escaped from poverty are examined in addition the profile of those that remained poor during the period the chronic poor is looked at in rural areas the cultivation of a nontraditional export crop chat has significantly improved the welfare of households primary education plays a more important role in improving welfare in urban than in rural areas decomposition of changes in poverty into growth and redistribution components indicates that potential poverty reduction due to the increase in real per capita income was to some extent counteracted by worsening income distribution the implications of the results for a propoor policy are discussed

fertilizer adoption by smallholders in the brazilian amazon farm level evidence multiple constraints prevent smallholders from adopting fertilizers even with regional supply of agricultural inputs expanding and soils being weared out using comprehensive farm level data from the eastern brazilian amazon we found that market proximity had a significant positive correlation with fertilizer adoption even after controlling for liquidity land tenure education experience and access to rural extension services nevertheless few smallholders completely replaced nutrients from vegetation with fertilizers instead we found that a hybrid system that combines nutrients from vegetation and fertilizers was approximately twice as common as exclusive fertilizer use we suggest that the option for this diversified nutrient portfolio may result not only from a lack of capital or knowledge regarding return on fertilizer use but also from the need to adapt to the economic constraints facing smallholders and minimize risk results indicate that a rural extension program aimed at supporting a rapid and complete replacement of ashes from vegetation by fertilizers could prove unsuccessful for amazonian smallholders

role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities an svar approach to the malaysian economy and monetary responses abstract this study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on malaysian macroeconomic activities and monetary responses we use a structural var svar model based on monthly data over the period 1986 2009 the egarch model estimates show an important asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on the conditional oil price volatility dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the svar model show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on malaysian industrial production we also find that levels of consumer price index cpi decline with a positive shock to oil price uncertainty this is the result of negative demand shock due to the postponement of consumption of big ticket items by individuals households and other sectors of the economy we also found that the malaysian central bank adopts an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price uncertainty variance decomposition analysis reconfirms that volatility in the oil price is the second most important factor to explain the variance of industrial production after its own shocks these results shed some light on how the central bank of malaysia can use controlling mechanisms to stabilize aggregate output and price level

adoption of agricultural innovations in developing countries a survey this paper reviews various studies which have provided a description and possible explanation to patterns of innovation adoption in the agricultural sector the survey points out that the tendency of many studies to consider innovation adoption in dichotomous terms adoption nonadoption may not be appropriate in many cases where the actual decisions are defined over a more continuous range more attention needs to be given to the socio cultural and institutional environment in area studies so that their interrelation with economic factors affecting adoption can be inferred the presence of several interrelated innovations is another aspect that needs to be considered more carefully in future research since a number of simultaneous decisions may be involved furthermore the possibility of regular sequential patterns in adopting components of a new technological package should be specifically addressed in future studies finally the impact of differential adoption rates on land holding distribution merits attention in future research

nonlinear pricing in markets with interdependent demand this paper provides a mathematical framework for modeling demand and determining optimal price schedules in markets which have demand externalities and can sustain nonlinear pricing these fundamental economic concepts appear in the marketplace in the form of mutual buyers benefits and quantity discounts the theory addressing these aspects is relevant to a wide variety of goods and services examples include tariffs for electronic communications services pricing of franchises and royalty fees for copyrighted material and patents this paper builds on several previous results from microeconomics and extends nonlinear pricing to markets with demand externalities the implications of this price structure are compared to results obtained for flat rates and two part tariffs in a similar context a case study is described in which the results were applied to planning the startup of a new electronic communications service

nonlinear pricing of information goods this paper analyzes optimal pricing for information goods under incomplete information when both unlimited usage fixed fee pricing and usage based pricing are feasible and administering usage based pricing may involve transaction costs it is shown that offering fixed fee pricing in addition to a nonlinear usage based pricing scheme is always profit improving in the presence of nonzero transaction costs and there may be markets in which a pure fixed fee is optimal this implies that the optimal pricing strategy for information goods is almost never fully revealing moreover it is proved that the optimal usage based pricing schedule is independent of the value of the fixed fee a result that simplifies the simultaneous design of pricing schedules considerably and provides a simple procedure for determining the optimal combination of fixed fee and nonlinear usage based pricing the introduction of fixed fee pricing is shown to increase both consumer surplus and total surplus the differential effects of setup costs fixed transaction costs and variable transaction costs on pricing policy are described these results suggest a number of managerial guidelines for designing pricing schedules for instance in nascent information markets firms may profit from low fixed fee penetration pricing but as these markets mature the optimal pricing mix should expand to include a wider range of usage based pricing options minimum fees quantity discounts and adoption levels across the different pricing schemes are characterized strategic pricing responses to changes in market characteristics are described and the implications of the paper s results for bundling and vertical differentiation of information goods are discussed

the role of education on the adoption of chemical fertiliser under different socioeconomic environments in ethiopia studies on input adoption consider education as one of the most important factors that affect adoption decisions however very little is known about the spill over effect of intra household education on the adoption process and about the impact of education on adoption decisions under different socioeconomic conditions we investigate these two issues using a discrete choice model the results indicate that the decision making process is a decentralised one in which educated adult members of the household actively participate in the decision making process this casts doubt on the traditional assumption that the household head is the sole decision maker the results reveal that there is a substantial and statistically significant intra household spill over effect of education on the adoption decision of households the results of the study also show that the coefficient of the education and the environment interaction variable is negative and statistically significant this demonstrates that education and socioeconomic environments could be substitutes in modern environments and complementary in traditional ones this implies that the expansion of education in traditional areas may be more attractive than in modern areas since education is usually the only means to enhance the ability of farmers to acquire synthesise and respond to innovations such as chemical fertiliser

implications of hyperbolic discounting for optimal pricing and scheduling of unpleasant services that generate future benefits people tend to lack the self control to undergo an unpleasant service that would generate future benefits this paper derives a tractable quasi hyperbolic discounting model of that behavioral tendency for a queueing system in which service time is short relative to the time horizon for its benefits planning in advance people may naively overestimate their self control this paper shows how customers lack of self control and naivete affect optimal pricing and scheduling the welfare maximizing usage fee and the revenue maximizing usage fee decrease with customers lack of self control charging for subscription in addition to or instead of per use increases revenue especially when subscribers are naive if the manager can charge for subscription or per use subscription is optimal for revenue maximization whereas usage based pricing is optimal for welfare maximization if customers are heterogeneous in their self control and naivete priority scheduling can dramatically increase welfare and revenu

forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models this paper extends previous studies by investigating the relevance of structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices using a variety of garch type models our results can be summarized as follows first we provide evidence of parameter instability in five out of nine garch based conditional volatility processes for energy prices second long memory is effectively present in all the series considered and a figarch model seems to better fit the data but the degree of volatility persistence diminishes significantly after adjusting for structural breaks finally the out of sample analysis shows that volatility models accommodating instability and long memory characteristics of the data provide the best volatility forecasts for most cases

farm productivity and efficiency in rural bangladesh the role of education revisited this article reassesses the debate over the role of education in farm production in bangladesh using a large dataset on rice producing households from 141 villages average and stochastic production frontier functions are estimated to ascertain the effect of education on productivity and efficiency a full set of proxies for farm education stock variables are incorporated to investigate the internal as well as external returns to education the external effect is investigated in the context of rural neighbourhoods our analysis reveals that in addition to raising rice productivity and boosting potential output household education significantly reduces production inefficiencies however we are unable to find any evidence of the externality benefit of schooling neighbour s education does not matter in farm production we discuss the implication of these findings for rural education programmes in bangladesh

a nonparametric garch model of crude oil price return volatility the use of parametric garch models to characterise crude oil price volatility is widely observed in the empirical literature in this paper we consider an alternative approach involving nonparametric method to model and forecast oil price return volatility focusing on two crude oil markets brent and west texas intermediate wti we show that the out of sample volatility forecast of the nonparametric garch model yields superior performance relative to an extensive class of parametric garch models these results are supported by the use of robust loss functions and the hansen s 2005 superior predictive ability test the improvement in forecasting accuracy of oil price return volatility based on the nonparametric garch model suggests that this method offers an attractive and viable alternative to the commonly used parametric garch models

a data envelopment analysis based framework for the relative performance evaluation of competing crude oil prices volatility forecasting models abstract forecasts of crude oil prices volatility are important inputs to many decision making processes in application areas such as macroeconomic policy making risk management options pricing and portfolio management despite the fact that a large number of forecasting models have been designed to forecast crude oil prices volatility so far the relative performance evaluation of competing forecasting models remains an exercise that is unidimensional in nature to be more specific most studies tend to use several criteria and their measures to assess the relative performance of these models but competing models are always ranked by performance measure thus leading in general to different rankings for different criteria and to a situation where one cannot make an informed decision as to which model performs best with respect to all criteria under consideration the purpose of this paper is to propose a single ranking that takes account of several criteria using a data envelopment analysis framework our empirical results reveal that the unidimensional rankings for different criteria might differ significantly and that the multidimensional ranking of some models could be substantially different from their unidimensional rankings which highlights the importance of the proposed performance evaluation tool

the interaction between food prices and oil prices this paper provides a statistical methodology to estimate the impact of oil price uncertainty on food prices in doing so it examines the joint impact of oil price and food price uncertainties and their correlation on the food price also the theoretical model was applied to the oil based trinidad and tobago and the empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions the empirical results indicate that a higher oil price increases food price also a higher oil price volatility yields a higher food price moreover an increase in the oil supply reduces the food price

oil price dynamics 2002 2006 abstract oil price dynamics during 2002 2006 have been characterized by high volatility high intensity jumps and strong upward drift and were concomitant with underlying fundamentals of oil markets and world economy namely pressure on oil prices resulting from rigid crude oil supply and expanding world demand for crude oil a change in the oil price process parameters would require a change in underlying fundamentals market expectations extracted from call and put option prices anticipated no change in underlying fundamentals in the short term markets expected oil prices to remain volatile and jumpy and with higher probabilities to rise rather than fall above the expected mean

congestion and network externalities in the short run pricing of information system services transfer pricing provides management with an efficient tool for coordinating the use of information system services in practice these services if they are charged out to end users are priced via an allocation of historical costs based on individual usage or are assigned a price based on the fair market value of outside alternatives both approaches encourage suboptimal usage of information systems resources they ignore three constituents of optimal transfer prices 1 the reaction of other users to any change in a given user s consumption of service 2 the technical response to additional use of an information system service in the form of congestion and network externalities and 3 end user preferences for the information system service together these influences on demand contribute to an externality two types of externalities are significant in information systems congestion externalities decrease and network externalities increase the utility of services this research provides a complete model for computing optimal transfer price which corrects several existing problems in information system service valuation when full absorption cost allocations contain significant fixed precommitted or sunk cost components it is not possible to balance the budget direct costing improves on full absorption costing but misspecifies costs when demand is nonlinear to balance the budget with a minimum of disutility to end users management must resort to second best pricing inefficiency arises from two sources when externalities are ignored in transfer pricing end users cannot plan service usage and thus encounter unanticipated congestion which lowers morale and efficiency and increases costly expediting where congestion effects are highly nonlinear congestion may effectively shut down the system on the other hand incorrect transfer prices can motivate usage too low to take advantage of network benefits end users may confuse externality effects and intrinsic value of an information system service in these cases the price and performance of outside alternatives exert a complex and subtle influence on use and pricing of services where there exist identical outside and inside processing alternatives and transfer pricing does not reflect this there is a significant tendency to overprice and underutilize internal services in this case there may be a tendency to outsource when processing should be kept in house future markets for information systems will favor technologies which exhibit strong network externalities and pricing of these technologies will become increasingly complex because of the interrelationship of hardware software and data originated externalities the models provided in this research will allow management to take advantage of these opportunities

modeling and forecasting crude oil markets using arch type models this study investigates the time varying volatility of two major crude oil markets the west texas intermediate wti and europe brent a flexible autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch model is used to take into account the stylized volatility facts such as clustering volatility asymmetric news impact and long memory volatility among others the empirical results indicate that the intensity of long persistence volatility in the wti is greater than in the brent it is also found that for the wti the appreciation and depreciation shocks of the wti have similar impact on the resulting volatility however a leverage effect is found in brent although both the estimation and diagnostic evaluations are in favor of an asymmetric long memory arch model only the wti models provide superior in the out of sample forecasts on the other hand from the empirical out of sample forecasts it appears that the simplest parsimonious generalized arch provides the best forecasted evaluations for the brent crude oil data

education and technical efficiency during the green revolution in pakistan tion is more likely to arise during disequilibrium caused by technical change in agriculture this may be because technical change renders the existing cultural practices obsolete or inadequate and calls for an adjustment a more educated farmer is supposed to make the required adjustment more quickly this article tests the foregoing hypothesis in pakistan agriculture during the green revolution when introduction of new crop varieties disturbed the prevailing equilibrium for this purpose a production function approach is used and the analysis is conducted not only for the new crop varieties but also for their traditional counterparts the results lend support to the hypothesis by showing that the worker effect is stronger for new crop varieties than it is for traditional ones the article is divided into five sections in the next section a brief review of the literature is presented section iii presents the hypothesis and discusses the methodology used for the analysis the results and their policy implications are discussed in section iv and section v concludes the article ii brief literature review in a pioneering study exploring the economic effects of education z griliches used production function analysis to highlight the contri

modelling futures price volatility in energy markets is there a role for financial speculation this paper models volatility in four energy futures markets adopting garch models the variance equation is enriched with alternative measures of speculation based on cftc data the market share of non commercial traders the working s t index and the percentage of net long positions of non commercials over total open interest in future markets it also includes a control for market liquidity we consider four energy commodities light sweet crude oil heating oil gasoline and natural gas over the period 2000 2014 analysed at weekly frequency we find that speculation presents a negative and significant sign the robustness exercise shows that i results remain unchanged through different model specifications garch in mean egarch and tarch ii results are robust to different specifications of the mean and variance equation

globalization and smallholders the adoption diffusion and welfare impact of non traditional export crops in guatemala summary this paper uses a duration analysis based on adoption data spanning 25 years from six communities in the central highlands of guatemala to explore how household characteristics and external trends play into both the adoption and diffusion processes of non traditional exports ntx among smallholders based on the analysis ntx production appeared to have delivered less prosperity to adopters than initially promised smallholders may lack capacity to overcome difficulties that inevitably arise in complex types of cultivations and in highly variable global agricultural markets governmental and non governmental organizations can attempt to mitigate these difficulties but market forces may overwhelm these efforts

user delay costs and internal pricing for a service facility this paper studies optimal pricing and capacity decisions for a service facility in an environment where users delay cost is important the model assumes a general nonlinear delay cost structure and incorporates the tradeoff between the delay cost and capacity cost we find necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimality of a pricing rule that charges out service resources at their marginal capacity cost we examine the issue of budgetary balance and find that net value maximization entails a budget deficit for the service facility that is the service facility should be evaluated as a deficit center the results provide guidelines under which the optimal magnitude of the deficit can be determined

is increasing inorganic fertilizer use for maize production in ssa a profitable proposition evidence from nigeria inorganic fertilizer use across sub saharan africa is generally considered to be low yet the notion that fertilizer use is too low is predicated on the assumption that it is profitable to use rates higher than currently observed there is however limited empirical evidence to support this using a nationally representative panel dataset this paper empirically estimates the profitability of fertilizer use for maize production in nigeria we find that fertilizer use in nigeria is not as low as conventional wisdom suggests low marginal physical product and high transportation costs significantly reduce the profitability of fertilizer use apart from reduced transportation costs other constraints such as soil quality timely access to the product and availability of complementary inputs such as improved seeds irrigation and credit as well as good management practices are also necessary for sustained agricultural productivity improvements

forecasting crude oil market volatility further evidence using garch class models abstract this paper extends the work of kang et al 2009 we use a greater number of linear and nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch class models to capture the volatility features of two crude oil markets brent and west texas intermediate wti the one five and twenty day out of sample volatility forecasts of the garch class models are evaluated using the superior predictive ability test and with more loss functions unlike kang et al 2009 we find that no model can outperform all of the other models for either the brent or the wti market across different loss functions however in general the nonlinear garch class models which are capable of capturing long memory and or asymmetric volatility exhibit greater forecasting accuracy than the linear ones especially in volatility forecasting over longer time horizons such as five or twenty days

cost allocation and opportunity costs one explanation for the widespread use of allocated fixed costs is that they can serve as a proxy for difficult to calculate opportunity costs this explanation is pursued by modeling a service department as an m m s s queueing system two main results are that the expected value of opportunity costs equals both the incremental productivity of capacity and the optimal transfer price when the cost of capacity is of the form cs as and is close to one we show that allocated fixed costs are a good proxy for average opportunity costs however if there are great economies of scale is close to zero then a method which charges users only for the variable costs of the service department is recommended finally the economic efficiency of transfer prices based on either variable cost or full cost is compared with optimal transfer pricing policies

dynamic nonlinear pricing in networks with interdependent demand we consider the pricing decision for a new product whose consumption value increases as the network of adopters expands this demand interdependence is a characteristic feature of telecommunications networks the paper analyzes the case of a single supplier offering the product to a heterogeneous population consumers decide on network access and consumption quantity the pricing decision consists of choosing a pricing schedule over the dimensions of quantity and time that maximizes the present value of a weighted sum of total surplus and producer profits subject to the dynamics of market growth we find that the decision can be decoupled into two nested optimization problems a given some market size what should the optimal nonlinear price schedule be and b how should the price schedule be changed optimally over time this separation enables us to solve the pricing problem explicit consideration of the dynamics the discounting of future surpluses and the extent of market growth anticipation affect not only the price and network size trajectories but also their steady state equilibrium values

poverty status and the impact of formal credit on technology use and wellbeing among ethiopian smallholders summary this paper examines the impact of formal credit largely microfinance on the use of improved technology and on consumption and asset growth across households in different degrees of asset poverty using data from rural ethiopia the analysis finds no relationship between participation in microfinance programs and the use of technologies or consumption growth among the poorest households even though the use of certain technologies like fertilizer contributes to their asset accumulation over time for other households microfinance has positive effects on both consumption and asset growth as well as on the use of improved technology the findings imply variation in constraints faced by different classes of poor households and suggest the value of asset based poverty classifications in identifying target groups for poverty interventions

forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data abstract we use the information in intraday data to forecast the volatility of crude oil at a horizon of 1 66 days using a variety of models relying on the decomposition of realized variance in its positive or negative semivariances part and its continuous or discontinuous part jumps we show the importance of these decompositions in predictive in sample regressions using a number of specifications nevertheless an important empirical finding comes from an out of sample analysis which unambiguously shows the limited interest of considering these components overall our results indicates that a simple autoregressive specification mimicking long memory and using past realized variances as predictors does not perform significantly worse than more sophisticated models which include the various components of realized variance

investment decisions in manufacturing assessing the effects of real oil prices and their uncertainty summary we investigate the effects of real oil prices and their uncertainty on investment decisions making use of plant level data we estimate dynamic discrete choice models that allow modeling investment inaction under different assumptions related to initial conditions and unobserved heterogeneity we find that increases in real oil price changes and in real oil price uncertainty significantly reduce the likelihood of investment action in line with the predictions of irreversible investment theory we also document that investment decisions exhibit strong pure state dependence and are also significantly affected by initial conditions copyright 2012 john wiley sons ltd

productivity credit risk and the demand for weather index insurance in smallholder agriculture in ethiopia the article explores the relationship between fertilizer use and the demand for weather index insurance wii among smallholder farmers in ethiopia we examine whether fertilizer use is profitable under current smallholder production conditions whether risk related factors affect fertilizer use and we estimate the returns to inputs in the agricultural production function in the absence of insurance we then study how these primitives of agricultural production functions relate to insurance demand the study compares a survey based estimate of willingness to pay with actual uptake for the weather insurance finding the stated and actual demand to be almost completely uncorrelated while those with high marginal returns to inputs say they would purchase insurance only those with low marginal returns actually do consistent with the stated purpose of the product as input insurance insurance demand proves to be highly responsive to the existence and amount of randomly allocated insurance vouchers jel classifications c83 g22 q12

forecasting the good and bad uncertainties of crude oil prices using a har framework abstract good or bad uncertainty is the volatility that is associated with positive or negative innovations to asset prices this paper proposes new heterogeneous autoregressive type har type models to forecast the good and bad uncertainties of crude oil prices in this paper we investigate the effects of lagged bad and good uncertainties daily positive and negative signed jump variations and leverages on predicting good and bad uncertainties by in sample and out of sample analysis the in sample results show that bad and good uncertainties have long memory property and the predictability of long term good and bad uncertainties is stronger than that of short and mid term good and bad uncertainties the out of sample results indicate that lagged bad or good uncertainties daily positive signed jump variation and daily negative signed jump variation contain incremental out of sample information for forecasting good or bad uncertainties and in most cases lagged leverages also play indispensable roles in forecasting the good and bad uncertainties in the crude oil market moreover the results of out of sample analysis remain robust across using the other estimation window other har type models and the other sample

crude oil equity and gold futures open interest co movements abstract the study is unique in its investigation of the co movements between trading activity on the equity crude oil and gold futures market proxied by open interest it provides empirical evidence that stock and crude oil futures demand for hedging is positively related but reacts negatively to sudden shocks in open interest on the other market furthermore gold futures open interest reacts positively to shocks in the crude oil futures trading activity the level of instantaneous linkage is related to external market conditions during periods of unstable financial markets the correlation between equity and energy futures open interest decreases and the correlation of the open interest on the equity and gold futures market turns weak negative this indicates hedging funds allocation toward gold market in periods of stock market uncertainty

forecasting energy market volatility using garch models can multivariate models beat univariate models abstract in this paper we forecast energy market volatility using both univariate and multivariate garch class models first we forecast volatilities of individual assets and find that multivariate models display better performance than univariate models second we forecast crack spread volatility and contrast the performance of multivariate models for two underlyings with the alternative of univariate ones for crack spreads directly our evidence shows that univariate models allowing for asymmetric effects display the greatest accuracy we also discuss the hedging strategy based on multivariate models and its implications for market participants

gender and the dynamics of technology adoption empirical evidence from a household level panel data very few empirical studies account for the dynamic nature of the agricultural technology adoption decision and none of these explores if this dynamic nature depends on the gender of the decision maker using four waves of a household level ugandan panel data this is the first empirical analysis to account for self learning one s own adoption experience in explaining current adoption decision in a developing country context and the first to study the interaction between self learning and gender technology adoption is defined as adoption of hybrid seed inorganic fertilizer or pesticides our results indicate that the dynamic panel data probit model is superior to its static counterpart in the sense that self learning captured by lagged technology adoption indicators is by far the most important determinant of technology adoption we also find a weaker impact of self learning for female headed households than male headed households female headed households face fewer learning opportunities which produce a lower self learning impact in later periods further exacerbating the gap in technology adoption among male and female headed households

optimal departures from marginal cost pricing focuses on departures from marginal cost pricing optimal allocation or resources level of tax revenue that will be collected by the government theorems developed for resource allocation ebsco

consumption risk technology adoption and poverty traps evidence from ethiopia much has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture with issues such as input availability knowledge and education risk preferences profitability and credit constraints receiving much attention this paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests building on an explicit model this is explored in panel data for ethiopia historical rainfall distributions are used to identify the counterfactual consumption risk controlling for unobserved household and time varying village characteristics it emerges that not just ex ante credit constraints but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail discourage the application of fertilizer the lack of insurance causes inefficiency in production choices