network externalities technological progress and the competition of market contracts abstract network externalities are used to describe the fact that many modern products become more valuable the more users adopt products of the same technology where network externalities and technological progress exist the various kinds of inefficiencies discussed in the recent literature can be explained by different types of contracts the main categories analysed are simple market contracts update contracts and service contracts it is shown that these types of contract emerge endogenously from the incentive structure of profit maximizing firms competition between these contracts may substantially reduce inefficient allocations caused by network externalities

a model of demand with interactions among consumers abstract the aim of this paper is to study emergent patterns of demand when there are social interactions between different consumers specifically our concern is with the case in which consumers preferences are influenced by the consumption behaviour of others the analysis recognises three reference groups the first is a peer group of similar consumers with whom the individual interacts on a regular basis and with whom the individual desires to share some consumption activities the second is one or several contrast group s with which the individual seeks actively not to interact and from whom the individual wishes to distinguish himself herself the third is an aspirational group with whom the individual does not interact on a regular basis but wishes that he she did and with whom the individual would like to share consumption activities but cannot in this relatively simple model these groups influence the individual s behaviour the paper derives steady state and dynamic properties of the distribution of consumption over users the degree to which consumption is restricted to a small group of similar agents is determined by the strength of the contrast and aspiration effects these effects also drive the distribution away from the natural distribution i e the one that would prevail were consumers to consider only the properties of the good and not the actions of other consumers the paper discusses the potential application of this modeling framework in a large number of consumption settings

the effect of concealed weapons laws an extreme bound analysis i introduction in a recent paper lott and mustard 1997 provide evidence on the relationship between concealed handgun laws often called right to carry or shall issue laws and crime they examine 16 years 1977 1992 of county level crime data from the fbi s uniform crime reports ucr and compare crime rates before and after the introduction of right to carry laws controlling for demographic factors and county level arrest rates they find that introducing right to carry laws resulted in significant reductions in the violent crimes of murder rape aggravated assault and robbery and increases in some property crimes such as burglary larceny and auto theft the latter increase is attributed to a substitution effect suggesting that potential criminals will at the margin switch from violent crimes that have now become more risky to them to property crimes where the probability of encountering an armed victim is much lower comparing these two effects coupled with a slight increase in accidental gunshots from individuals owning concealed handguns lott and mustard conclude that the social benefits of these laws exceed their costs economists who present one set of empirical results are always vulnerable to criticism that they could have selected another group of right hand side variables or modeled them in a different way lott and mustard s analysis has been criticized by black and nagin 1998 who re examine the data set choosing a different set of controls and a different model and reach different conclusions about the effects of the right to carry laws uncertainty about what to control for and how to do it has been called model uncertainty by leamer 1983 who suggests estimating the size of model uncertainty by testing the sensitivity of the particular results to many different possible model specifications this methodology is called extreme bound analysis in this paper we report extreme bounds from nearly 20 000 estimated regressions that vary the modeling choices made by lott and mustard we find support for the deterrence result from a broad set of specifications in particular we find strong support for the hypothesis that the right to carry laws are associated with a decrease in the trend in violent crime rates we do not find much support for a substitution effect into property crimes in what follows we first describe some econometric issues related to the problem of estimating the effect of the right to carry laws on crime rates we then report our extreme bound analysis and offer concluding remarks ii extreme bound analysis although behavioral theories can provide general guidance about the kinds of factors that should influence the crime rate they do not specifically determine which variables should be included in a regression analysis in addition conflicting theories typically suggest alternate model specifications in the context of crime rates for example we might expect higher crime rates in counties with higher unemployment and a larger percentage of young men age 18 30 following convention we call this a supply effect nagin 1978 however it is also possible that higher unemployment leads to the passage of right to carry laws or that right to carry laws are less likely to be enacted in areas with high percentages of young men age 18 30 we call this a demand effect omitted or unobserved demand or supply variables may induce a spurious correlation between the adoption of the right to carry laws and crime rates that has nothing to do with the supply of crime leamer 1983 suggests a formal specification search or extreme bound analysis to estimate the size of such model uncertainty surrounding certain regression results for example by including different right hand side variables in a supply of crime equation for murder leamer estimates an extreme bound interval for the deterrent effect of capital punishment that ranges from 29 to 12 murders prevented for every execution

regional variations in us consumer response to price changes in home heating fuels the northeast and the south 1987 regional variations in us consumer response to price changes in home heating fuels the northeast and the south applied economics vol 19 no 9 pp 1261 1268

energy demand in ghana a disaggregated analysis this paper presents a comprehensive analysis of energy demand in ghana by estimating demand functions for key disaggregated energy components including gasoline diesel liquefied petroleum gas lpg kerosene biomass residual fuel oil rfo and electricity our results show that energy prices income urbanization and economic structure are significant demand drivers of the different energy types in ghana with varying estimated elasticities further there is evidence of high degree of inter fuel substitution in energy demand in ghana particularly from gasoline diesel and kerosene towards lpg consumption we recommend among different policy options a customization of energy price subsidization policies especially on lpg to reduce the unintended beneficiary dilemma or spillover effect of current government policy other policies such as intensification of energy conservation programs and market entry of independent power trading companies to enhance energy service delivery through competition are also discussed

global warming and energy demand list of tables list of figures list of contributors preface 1 global warming and energy elasticities terry barker paul ekins and nick johnstonepart 1 estimating long term energy elasticities 2 alternative approaches to estimating long run energy demand elasticities an application to asian developing countries ron smith and m hashem pesaran 3 a survey of international energy elasticities neil manning and jago atkinson 4 long run demand elasticities for gasoline thomas sterner and mikael franzen 5 responses of energy demand in uk manufacturing to the energy price increases of 1973 and 1979 80 alan ingham 6 elasticities for oecd aggregate final energy demand lakis vouyoukas 7 modelling uk energy demand derek hodgson and keith millerpart ii energy the economy and greenhouse gas abatement 8 endogenous technological progress in fossil fuel demand laurence boone stephen hall david kemball cook and clare smith 9 uk energy price elasticities and their implications for long term co2 abatement terry barker 10 price elasticity and market structure overcoming obstacles to ensure energy efficiency tim jackson 11 rethinking the use of energy elasticities stefan p schleicher 12 revisiting the costs of co2 abatement paul ekins 13 asymmetrical price elasticities of energy demand michael grubb14 conclusions terry barker paul ekins and nick johnstone bibliography index

r d in clean technology a project choice model with learning abstract in this study we investigate the qualitative and quantitative effects of an r d subsidy for a clean technology and a pigouvian tax on a dirty technology on environmental r d when it is uncertain how long the research takes to complete the model is formulated as an optimal stopping problem in which the number of successes required to complete the r d project is finite and learning about the probability of success is incorporated we show that the optimal r d subsidy with the consideration of learning is higher than that without it we also find that an r d subsidy performs better than a pigouvian tax unless suppliers have sufficient incentives to continue cost reduction efforts after the new technology successfully replaces the old one moreover by using a two project model we show that a uniform subsidy is better than a selective subsidy

a review of residential tiered electricity pricing in china abstract at present the unformed market oriented pricing mechanism has become a great challenge faced by china s electricity pricing and the unreasonable electricity pricing caused by cross subsidization has become increasingly serious with the economic development and energy shortage tiered electricity price tep which was developed and used since 1970s was introduced into china as a new electricity pricing method for residential electricity consumption the tep can also improve the tariffs the behaviors and the efficiency of residential electricity consumption in this study we use the fundamental theory of the electricity economics to analyze the pricing methods and the forms of china s power market with the reform of electric power industry we also point out the characteristics of residential tiered electricity pricing in china which is also compared with other countries such as the united states and japan the main factors influencing the residential tiered electricity pricing design are discussed in this paper from the perspectives of users the electric power enterprise and government regulation then we point out the main problems of china s existing tiered electricity pricing including inadequate level of public awareness and acceptance unreasonable tiered and electricity price standard insufficient reflection in regional differences less combination with other electricity pricing forms and low level of smart meter application

modelling aggregate domestic electricity demand in ghana an autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach in spite of the varying supply boosting efforts made by various governments to deal with the existing demand supply gap in the electricity sector the incessant growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand has made these efforts futile as an objective this paper attempts to identify the factors responsible for the historical growth trends in aggregate domestic electricity demand quantifying their effects both in the short run and long run periods using the ardl bounds cointegration approach and the sample period 1975 to 2005 in the long run real per capita gdp industry efficiency structural changes in the economy and degree of urbanisation are identified as the main driving force behind the historical growth trend in aggregate domestic electricity demand however in the short run real per capita gdp industry efficiency and degree of urbanisation are the main drivers of aggregate domestic electricity demand industry efficiency is the only factor that drives aggregate domestic electricity demand downwards however the negative efficiency effect is insufficient to have outweighed the positive income output and demographic effects hence the continual growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand as a policy option we recommend that appropriate electricity efficiency standards be implemented at the industry level

energy gdp relationship and capital intensity in ldcs abstract this study provides an updated estimate of the gdp elasticity of energy consumption for ldcs it uses a production function approach in determining this elasticity energy consumption is explained in terms of economic activity capital intensity and structure of economy the elasticity is found to be less than unitary this suggests that the earlier estimates for ldcs were biased

peak load pricing in postal services the peak load pricing problem for postal service is addressed in practice primarily by means of service differentiation according to class of mail the authors demonstrate that lower priority mail at peak times helps to ameliorate but does not eliminate the peak load problem they derive welfare optimal service differentiated prices under peak load conditions for a diverse mail processing technology the authors show the relationship between this class of problems and the traditional natural monopoly peak load literature the paper discusses the implications of the theory for u k and u s postal service practice and policy copyright 1990 by royal economic society

the evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in south africa a kalman filter application abstract in south africa the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been of major concern additional to past problems the 2008 electricity crisis made the solution crucial after its damaging consequences to the economy the disagreement on the need and consequences of the continuous electricity price hikes worsens the situation to contribute to the recent electricity debate this paper proposes a time varying price elasticity of demand for electricity the sensitivity of electricity consumption to price fluctuations changes throughout the years the main purpose of this study is the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity in south africa during the period 1980 2005 by employing an advanced econometric technique the kalman filter apart from the decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption 71 8 in the 1990s and 94 5 in the 2000s in average our results conclude to an important finding the higher the prices for example in the 1980s the higher the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations thus further increases of the electricity prices may lead to changes in the behaviour of electricity consumers focusing their efforts on improving their efficiency levels by introducing demand side management techniques or even turning to other sources of cheaper energy

electricity demand in kazakhstan properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations however information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning this study estimates kazakhstan s aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial service and residential sectors using regional data firstly our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low this fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading secondly we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity of the three sectors electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity this result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required finally our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3 or 5 per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency we find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long run cost recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency

waves in consumption with interdependence among consumers this paper presents a model to analyze the development of consumption patterns when there are social interactions among consumers in particular a consumer in this model recognizes three reference groups a peer group of similar consumers with whom the consumer wishes to share consumption activities a distinction group from which the consumer wishes to distinguish him or herself and an aspiration group to which the consumer does not belong but wishes that he she did and with whom the consumer would like to share consumption activities the interplay of aspiration and distinction can lead to waves in consumption these can happen when for example the avant garde consumption of up market pioneers is copied by other types of consumer as the latter aspire to emulate the former the former in turn seek to distinguish themselves from these unwelcome companions by varying their consumption in consequence a particular consumption activity may start up market an then gradually proceed down the social spectrum more complex patterns with continuing cycles in consumption can also be found the paper argues that this model is not only applicable to the consumption behaviour of an elite or would be elite but is relevant in a wide range of consumption settings

long and short run elasticities of residential electricity consumption in china a partial adjustment model with panel data abstractwhile it has stabilized in developed world the per capita residential electricity consumption rec in developing countries such as china is growing very rapidly and this trend is very likely to continue built upon a provincial level panel data we employ a partial adjustment model to investigate the future trend of rec in china and factors that affect it we estimate the income and price short term and long term elasticities for urban and rural china respectively and compare the results with rec studies in other countries or regions the findings provide useful information to understand how the rec would grow in china as household income increases and how effective that price could be as an intervention tool

wright meets markowitz how standard portfolio theory changes when assets are technologies following experience curves abstract we consider how to optimally allocate investments in a portfolio of competing technologies using the standard mean variance framework of portfolio theory we assume that technologies follow the empirically observed relationship known as wright s law also called a learning curve or experience curve which postulates that costs drop as cumulative production increases this introduces a positive feedback between cost and investment that complicates the portfolio problem leading to multiple local optima and causing a trade off between concentrating investments in one project to spur rapid progress vs diversifying over many projects to hedge against failure we study the two technology case and characterize the optimal diversification in terms of progress rates variability initial costs initial experience risk aversion discount rate and total demand the efficient frontier framework is used to visualize technology portfolios and show how feedback results in nonlinear distortions of the feasible set for the two period case in which learning and uncertainty interact with discounting we compare different scenarios and find that the discount rate plays a critical role

estimates of electricity saving potential in chinese nonferrous metals industry the paper analyzes the electricity saving potential of nonferrous metals industry in china the cointegration method is applied to estimate electricity intensity of chinese nonferrous metals industry in an effort to predict future electricity saving potential the results show that there is a long run equilibrium between electricity intensity and factors such as r d intensity industrial electricity price enterprise scale and labor productivity by means of scenario analysis we evaluate different possible measures that might be adopted to narrow down the electricity efficiency gap between nonferrous metals industry in china and that of japan the results indicate that more active electricity conservation policies are needed in order to reduce the electricity intensity of chinese nonferrous metals industry we also find that the electricity efficiency gap could be significantly narrowed by 2020 if proper electricity conservation policy is adopted finally based on the results of the scenario analysis future policy priorities are suggested

technological clusters with a knowledge based principle evidence from a delphi investigation in the french case of the life sciences abstract recent works in the theory of technical change show the effect of irreversibility and lock in on the diffusion and creation of innovation processes which are able to stop the development of a generic technology therefore industrial policies play a major role in selecting and supporting the innovative process the purpose of this paper is to prove the possibility to derive a typology of future innovations in terms of generic technology from a delphi type technology survey thus it is possible to get a better understanding of the industrial dynamics and to design an interesting tool for industrial policies or for firm strategies as far as they aim at developing stable technological trajectories this is applied to the french case of the life sciences the paper suggests interesting explanatory trajectories in order to fight against diseases such as cancer alzheimer or schizophrenia

on the nature of technologies knowledge procedures artifacts and production inputs in the most general terms a technology can be seen as a human constructed means for achieving a particular end such as the movement of goods and people the transmission of information or the cure of a disease these means most often entail procedures regarding how to achieve the ends concerned particular bits of knowledge artifacts and of course specific physical inputs necessary to yield the desired outcomes in fact the procedures and the underlying knowledge they draw upon the physical and intangible inputs implicated and the performance characteristics of outputs are different but complementary aspects of what technology is these things are the object of this short essay copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

application of ramsey model in transition economy a russian case study this case study uses the ramsey model to analyze whether the current electricity prices charged by the natural monopoly novosibirskenergo in a major industrial region of the russian federation are socially optimal our estimates of demand elasticities for two major groups of consumers namely households and industrial users show that prices are not socially optimal a decrease in price for industrial users and an increase in price for households would bring the prices closer to socially optimal

uniform marginal pricing for the remuneration of distribution networks a new method for distribution access via uniform pricing for the remuneration of distribution networks is presented the proposed approach merges in a unified framework the investments the optimal network operation requirements the effect of the price elasticity of demand and the application of hourly pricing for demand side management purposes hourly uniform marginal prices understood as tariffs of use of the network are obtained from maximum social welfare condition sending efficient signals to the utility and consumers related to the optimal operation of the grid and use of the energy at peak and valley hours this method is used in the context of a performance based ratemaking regulation to get model companies from operational optimized real networks capital fees are integrated in the marginal tariff of use by means of the new replacement value concept broadly used in yardstick competition the model is stated as a mixed integer linear optimization problem suitable to be solved through well known linear programming tools the methodology has been successfully tested in a 42 bus test distribution network

long run incremental cost pricing based on unused capacity this paper proposes a novel approach for providing long run incremental cost lric pricing in network charges the proposed approach makes use of the unused capacity of an exiting network to reflect the cost of advancing or deferring future investment consequent upon the addition of generation or load at each study node on a distribution network compared with existing approaches to lric pricing the proposed approach produces forward looking charges that reflect both the extent of the network needed to service the generation or load and the degree to which that network is utilized the efficacy of the proposed lric approach has been validated by a comparison with the established investment cost related pricing icrp method used for deriving transmission charges in great brain gb this paper draws on work undertaken in projects for western power distribution and ofgem office of gas and electricity markets u k however the views expressed in this paper are those of the authors

tortoises and hares choice among technologies of unknown merit recent work in the area of competing technologies and increasing returns has largely been concerned with the effectiveness of the market in delivering optimal outcomes the existence of inefficient market outcomes suggests that there might be a place for intervention in the technology choice process this paper develops a model of sequential choice in which the choice process is subject to centralized control the model is used to show that intervention can increase the expected present value of the technology adoption process it remains however that one technology and not necessarily the best will come to dominate the market copyright 1991 by royal economic society

modelling electricity demand in ghana revisited the role of policy regime changes as policy regime changes demand elasticities are unlikely to be constant since individuals change how they form their expectations and this will change the estimated decision rules in this paper the time varying nature of electricity demand elasticities prior to and post the economic reform period in ghana is analysed using the fm ols three different sample periods pre reform post reform and full period was used in the analysis the result from the full sample period revealed that in the long run electricity demand is significantly affected by industry efficiency industry value added and real per capita gdp urbanization rate however has no significant effect the pre reform estimate showed lower income output and urbanization elasticities but higher industry energy efficiency elasticity relative to the post reform period this suggests that technological change in the pre reform period has been energy saving whilst technological change in the post reform period has been energy consuming the result further showed evidence of changing structure of the economy from the more energy intensive sector to the less energy intensive sector after the reform government should renew her effort in promoting energy saving technologies in the industrial sector and adjust the industrial structure to encourage the expansion of low energy intensive industries or high technology efficient industries

allocation of fixed costs in distribution networks with distributed generation in this paper we propose a method for the allocation of fixed capital and nonvariable operation and maintenance costs at the medium voltage mv distribution level the method is derived from the philosophy behind the widely used mw mile methodology for transmission networks that bases fixed cost allocations on the extent of use that is derived from load flows we calculate the extent of use by multiplying the total consumption or generation at a busbar by the marginal current variations or power to current distribution factors pidfs that an increment of active and reactive power consumed or generated in the case of distributed generation at each busbar produces in each circuit these pidfs are analogous to power transfer distribution factors ptdfs unlike traditional tariff designs that average fixed costs on a per kwh basis across all customers the proposed method provides more cost reflective price signals and helps eliminate possible cross subsidies that deter profitable in the case of competition or cost effective in the case of a fully regulated industry deployment of dg by directly accounting for use and location in the allocation of fixed costs an application of this method for a rural radial distribution network is presented

household energy elasticities and policy implications for pakistan abstract this study estimates fuel expenditure and price elasticities of household fuels in pakistan the burning of biomass is harmful to health and the environment and may cause preventable morbidity and mortality it is important to investigate how households fuel choices are linked to prices so that governments can consider appropriate steps to enhance the consumption of clean fuels using three pooled cross sectional surveys from pakistan and applying the linear approximate almost ideal demand system la aids model we found that all fuel types except natural gas were price inelastic at the national level and for urban households in rural areas natural gas and lpg were found to be more price elastic compared to urban areas simple policy simulations based on our results suggest that in order to reduce indoor air pollution by encouraging the adoption of clean fuels lpg and piped natural gas governments should subsidies clean fuels rather than imposing taxes on solid fuels moreover in the case of pakistan a subsidy for lpg should be preferred over a subsidy for piped natural gas as it produces a more cost effective reduction in solid fuel use

incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix the present work aims to examine the strategic decision of future electricity generation mix considering together with all other factors the effect of the external cost associated with the available power generation technology options not only during their operation but also during their whole life cycle the analysis has been performed by integrating the life cycle assessment concept into a linear programming model for the yearly decisions on which option should be used to minimize the electricity generation cost the model has been applied for the case of greece for the years 2012 2050 and has led to several interesting results firstly most of the new generating capacity should be renewable mostly biomass and wind while natural gas is usually the only conventional fuel technology chosen if externalities are considered wind energy increases its share and hydro power replaces significant amounts of biomass generated energy furthermore a sensitivity analysis has been performed one of the most important findings is that natural gas increases its contribution when externalities are increased summing up external cost has been found to be a significant percentage of the total electricity generation cost for some energy sources therefore significantly changing the ranking order of cost competitiveness for the energy sources examined

lock in vs critical masses industrial change under network externalities abstract where increasing returns to adoption play a role in the diffusion of a new technology technological lock in is now often claimed to occur however this result and the modeling approach that produces it are problematic further innovations could never have a chance of disseminating if lock in had occurred in the diffusion process of earlier innovations yet in reality industrial change does not come to a halt the paper offers a discussion of the apparent paradox from an alternative modeling approach conditions are derived under which a newly introduced technology can successfully disseminate in the market despite existing network externalities

some observations on the efficiency of british postal pricing unlike in the more competitive areas such as parcels and international mail the inland letters segment of the british post office s business is marked by an inefficient pricing structure where own price elasticities and cost differences between urban and rural and first and second class letters are not reflected in prices compared with a ramsey pricing structure the existing prices cause a significant welfare cost of about 20m p a 1985 86 pounds which does not appear to be outweighed by the additional administrative costs of a four tier pricing structure the proposal to introduce ramsey prices appears worthy of further investigation by those with access to the necessary data

lead markets country specific drivers of the global diffusion of innovations abstract globally successful innovations have commonly been preferred first in one country or region before being adopted internationally countries that first adopt an internally successful innovation can be described as lead markets this paper presents the lead market concept of developing global innovations the lead role of a market is discussed first theoretically and then by use of a system of five country specific factors demand advantages price advantages export advantages transfer advantages and market structure advantages the applicability of this system of lead market factors is then evaluated in a detailed case study of the cellular mobile telephone industry it is finally suggested that companies can harness lead markets for the development of global innovations by developing and refining innovations in close interaction with the local environment of a lead market a company can focus on a narrow range of preferences and feedback lowering the risk of being locked into idiosyncratic environments and generate true global innovations a method for identifying potential lead markets is briefly discussed

the economic efficiency impacts of alternatives for revenue reconciliation about a dozen electric utilities in the us offer rates that possess real time characteristics in these implementations the real time prices are updated at half hourly or hourly intervals and in no case are the prices spatially differentiated the implemented rates are based upon marginal generating costs with markups to account for system transmission and distribution costs or other revenue reconciliation needs this paper analyzes how great is the impact of alternative price markup methods on measures of social welfare and the time pattern of real time prices a case study and sensitivity results are also presented

electricity tariff design for transition economies application to the libyan power system this paper presents a general electricity tariff design methodology especially applicable for transition economies these countries are trying to modernize their power systems from a centralized environment with normally a public vertically integrated electric company to a liberalized framework unbundling electricity companies and eventually starting a privatization process two issues arise as crucial to achieving a successful transition i ensuring cost recovery for all future unbundled activities generation transmission distribution and retailing and ii sending the right price signals to electricity customers avoiding cross subsidies between customer categories the design of electricity tariffs plays a pivotal role in achieving both objectives this paper proposes a new tariff design methodology that complying with these two aforementioned criteria requires a low amount of information regarding system data and customer load profiles this is important since typically volume and quality of data are poor in those countries the presented methodology is applied to computing tariffs for the libyan power system in 2006 using real data

a robust methodology for ramsey pricing with an application to uk postal services the policy relevance of ramsey pricing calculations naturally turns on their robustness this paper sets out a methodology for a minimal information approach in examining the sensitivity of ramsey prices to changes in demand and cost parameters the minimal information required for the approach to be operational is 1 a set of estimated demand functions for the products involved and 2 some idea of the ball park for marginal costs for these products a case study of the u k letters business is used to illustrate the approach copyright 1996 by blackwell publishing ltd

will rationing guns reduce crime abstract reducing the supply of guns does not necessarily decrease crime as many economists support this article explores hazards of gun control and offers an alternative solution for reducing crime that of enacting laws to permit the carrying of concealed handguns

distribution charges for consumers and microgeneration considering load elasticity sensitivity abstract this paper presents an approach for calculating a tariff for electrical energy distribution systems the methodology is similar to the standard tariff calculation method used in brazil the approach combines the concepts of time of use tariffs and ramsey prices the process initially designed for energy consumers can be used to establish tariffs for micro generation units the resulting regulated distribution tariffs for both consumer and generation units has an hourly signal associated with long run marginal costs moreover while minimizing any loss of social benefits the tariffs comply with the revenue reconciliation constraint the proposed approach is applied to a real brazilian distribution system and compared to the current procedure used by the brazilian electricity regulatory agency

how much do electricity tariff increases in ukraine hurt the poor abstract increasing the electricity tariffs for private consumers to cost covering levels has been a very sensitive issue for all transition countries the likely negative social consequences are the central argument why the necessary tariff corrections have not yet been implemented in ukraine by the political decision makers since official data is not available there is insufficient knowledge regarding the electricity consumption behaviour of private households this makes it difficult to counter the official arguments with hard evidence a survey was carried out by the authors giving a more detailed picture basic data of the survey was used in evaluating the impact of possible tariff increases on the household expenditures of different income groups using both the compensating cv and the equivalent variation ev methods the findings confirm that an electricity tariff increase up to the level which would cover officially measured costs as defined by the ukrainian electricity regulatory authority would not cause severe social problems however further increases up to a level which would cover the true costs i e up to a level comparable to the average oecd level should only be realised in steps

electricity demand and conservation potential in the chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry newhuadu business school research fund ministry of education foundation 10jzd0018 10jbg013 china sustainable energy program g 1103 13921 national social science foundation 09zd050

assessing usa postal ratemaking an application of ramsey prices in early rate cases the inverse elasticity rule was used explicitly in setting postal rates but more recently the usa postal service has eschewed its use since cross elasticities between mail classes are not all zero general ramsey prices would be more appropriate than the simple inverse elasticity rule using usps estimates of revenues costs and elasticities postal rates are simulated under several different conditions the simulated prices are then compared to the rates suggested in the 1980 rate case to determine whether the principles being followed by the usps lead to ramsey prices

consumer s surplus without apology the purpose of this paper is to settle the controversy surrounding consumer s surplus and by so doing to validate its use as a tool of welfare economics i will show that observed consumer s surplus can be rigorously utilized to estimate the unobservable compensating and equivalent variations the correct theoretical measures of the welfare impact of changes in prices and income on an individual i derive precise upper and lower bounds on the percentage errors of approximating the compensating and equivalent variations with consumer s surplus these bounds can be explicitly calculated from observable demand data and it is clear that in most applications the error of approximation will be very small in fact the error will often be overshadowed by the errors involved in estimating the demand curve the results in no way depend upon arguments about the constancy of the marginal utility of income consequently this paper supplies specific empirical criteria which can replace the apologetic caveats frequently employed by those who presently apply consumer s surplus moreover the results imply that consumer s surplus is usually a very good approximation to the appropriate welfare measures to preview below i establish the validity of these rules of thumb for a

ramsey prices in the italian electricity market abstract in this paper we derive optimal zonal prices in the italian day ahead electricity market using estimation of a complete system of hourly demand in 2010 2011 in italy the hourly equilibrium price for all buyers is computed as a uniform average of supply zonal prices resulting from market splitting due to line congestion we model ex ante individual bids expressed by heterogeneous consumers which are distinguished by geographical zones using empirical estimations we compute demand elasticity values and new zonal prices according to a ramsey optimal scheme this is a new approach in the wholesale electricity market literature as previous studies have discussed the relative merit of zonal prices considering only the issue of line congestion our results show that the optimal pricing scheme can improve welfare in the day ahead italian electricity market with respect to both the existing uniform price scheme and the proposal to charge the existing supply zonal prices to the demand side

price and access charge discrimination in electricity distribution an application to the chilean case this paper presents and analyzes a model of electricity distribution in chile with three alternative regulatory pricing contract schemes for assigning a common capacity cost to final customers and competitive energy sellers the first scheme involves ramsey pricing while under the second and third schemes the monopoly chooses final prices and access charges subject either to a peak load physical cap or a total revenue price cap constraint in addition we consider circumstances in which the regulator does not know consumer demand the monopoly cannot price discriminate beyond a range defined by the marginal cost as a floor and the stand alone cost as a ceiling and access charges are set at the fully distributed cost allocation level currently in force the model is calibrated with chilean data and demonstrates that in terms of social welfare the fully distributed cost contract scheme currently in effect can be improved by discriminatory pricing complemented by certain of the analyzed constraints

energy demand until 2010 in ukraine abstract the economic development and environmental soundness of ukraine is hampered and even threatened today by an outdated energy system which delivers energy to the customers at high internal and external costs painful changes are necessary to adapt this system to the requirements of a market economy and international competition realistic projections of future energy consumption may help to clarify the amount of necessary changes and counter official projections which often belong to the realm of utopia in this context the german institute for economic research diw has been commissioned by the german advisory group on economic reform in ukraine with an evaluation of energy projections for ukraine in 1998 in this article i present an updated version of this study to get a feeling for the growth potential of energy consumption in ukraine an international comparison of specific energy consumption is made some rough scenarios of energy demand in ukraine until 2010 are also sketched in scenario i assumptions were made concerning gdp growth in each sector income elasticity of energy consumption price elasticity of energy consumption and effects of technical progress in scenario ii we assumed the development of specific energy consumption in eastern germany may provide a suitable guideline for ukraine each approach is applied to a case with low and a case with high economic growth the results of international comparisons are ambiguous for ukraine energy consumption per gdp unit is extremely high in ukraine even in comparison to russia and other transition countries to this result contribute technical inefficiencies but also structural factors high share of basic industry as well as the persistent economic crisis energy consumption per capita in ukraine is relatively high in relation to gdp per capita electricity consumption per capita in contrast nearly corresponds to the low average income in ukraine the results of our scenario calculations indicate that in contrast to official projections energy consumption in 2010 will probably be lower than in 1995 even with high economic growth in view of the slow growth prospect of overall energy demand it will not be necessary to expand coal production and electricity generation with nuclear energy in order to reduce energy imports this conclusion would even be strengthened if the government stimulated energy efficiency improvements by special programmes that are not taken into account in our scenarios

regulatory preferences and two part tariffs the case of electricity the purpose of this paper is to develop and demonstrate a method for deriving and testing regulatory preferences within and across customer classes and to assess the impact of these preferences on price structures and regulatory effectiveness in the electric utility industry the method extends a technique described in both nelson and ross for uncovering interclass preferences in a uniform price framework 24 33 34 by employing a two part tariff framework the extension enables the derivation of both interclass and intraclass preferences intraclass preferences can be derived in a two part tariff framework because regulators can discriminate not only between customer classes as with uniform prices but also within a customer class two part tariffs are also introduced because actual price structures in the electric utility industry are better approximated by two part tariffs than by uniform prices models of optimal two part tariffs particularly those of schmalensee and sherman and visscher are extended to allow regulatory preferences to vary across and within heterogeneous customer classes 36 37 13 27 11 25 19 18 22 2 these variable preferences are incorporated into a weighted social surplus function which regulators are assumed to maximize given this model of regulatory behavior preference weights can be derived for the electric utility industry with information on the markups of both per unit prices over marginal costs of kwh output and fixed charges over the marginal costs of customer connection and on output and connection demand elasticities

long term electricity demand in china from quantitative to qualitative growth abstract this paper develops scenarios of electricity demand in china until 2010 at a national a sectoral and a regional level it takes into account the recent macroeconomic downturn in the chinese economy and the potential effects of deregulation and price increases in the power sector the medium growth scenario hints at a gross electricity demand of 1500 twh in 2010 should the structural change from agriculture and heavy industry towards light industry and services accelerate electricity demand may be another 10 lower these figures are significantly below the projections fixed in the government s 9th five year plan which forecasts a demand of 2500 twh the aggregate and sectoral scenarios imply that current development plans for generating capacity and coal consumption until 2010 too need to be scaled down the disaggregation at the level of the 13 inter provincial and provincial power grids hints at potential regional discrepancies the large industrial areas in eastern china and the central region are likely to face overcapacity whereas north china and the peripheral regions may face deficits

solving the revenue reconciliation problem of distribution network providers using long term marginal prices in this paper the authors describe an integrated methodology to compute long term marginal prices in distribution networks long term marginal prices are considered the most interesting and economically sound way of allocating network costs to users additionally they inherently deal with the revenue reconciliation problem as they generally do not require other large supplementary tariff terms the proposed methodology uses fuzzy sets to model uncertainties in load forecasts and considers several criteria to guide the identification of solutions at the end there is a final decision making step to select the most adequate expansion plan according to the preferences of the decision maker

sprayed to death path dependence lock in and pest control strategies theoretical literature on the economics of technology has emphasized the effects on technological trajectories of positive feedbacks in a competition among technologies that all perform a similar function the presence of increasing returns to adoptions can force all but one technology from the market furthermore the victor need not be the superior technology this paper provides an empirical study of one technological competition which illuminates this theoretical work it uses theoretical results to explain why chemical control of agricultural pests remains the dominant technology in spite of many claims that it is inferior to its main competitor integrated pest management copyright 1996 by royal economic society

path dependence and the korean keyboard abstract this paper recounts the evolution of the korean keyboard as a case in which the disadvantages of the inherited standard turn into a nonissue with the advancement of auxiliary technologies the persistence of an inherited standard when a superior alternative is available is usually regarded as market failure however if the transition costs to the new standard are such that the net gains from the transition are insufficient the situation is unfortunate but not market failure the situation may change over time if the net gain from the alternative standard increases or transition costs to new alternative decrease or both the situation turns into one in which entrepreneurs can profit by making the transition where appropriate an institutional reform may lower transition costs substantially this paper suggests an additional possibility of technological changes that make the transition unnecessary in the case of the korean keyboard changes in auxiliary technologies have rendered the disadvantages of the inherited standard innocuous the case provides a cautionary tale against the temptation to drastically alter a seemingly hopelessly inferior inherited standard the lesson of the korean keyboard applies to japanese and chinese keyboards with even greater force

dual technological trees assessing the intensity and strategic significance of technological change abstract the paper addresses the issue of the potential impact of technological innovation on competition it aims at reviewing abernathy and utterhack s dominant technology dosi s technological trajectories clark s design hierarchies abernathy and clark s transilience concepts we recognize that the intensity of innovation falls along a continuum and introduce the concept of micro radical innovation we choose to qualify the strategic significance of technological change through the transilience concept leading to the principle of competence relatedness we introduce dual technological trees dtt as a way to present a hierarchical map of the many technological options that may be searched to fulfil a certain generic function in the market place the complex and unpredictable nature of technology is recognized the paper essentially suggests to map the various technological options and suboptions that one would think plausible at the present time keeping in mind that technology will end up finding its own peculiar ways the dynamic interaction between the dtt and some customer concept tree on the market side is also discussed we finally turn to the use of the dtt to assess the potential strategic significance of innovation several examples are presented

optimal departures from marginal cost pricing focuses on departures from marginal cost pricing optimal allocation or resources level of tax revenue that will be collected by the government theorems developed for resource allocation ebsco

dynamics of energy technologies and global change technological choices largely determine the long term characteristics of industrial society including impacts on the natural environment however the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized based on work over two decades at iiasa we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment especially global warming our focus is energy technologies the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems we show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques in the historical record we identify characteristic l such network e ects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors these simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change one is that the replacement of long lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution from coal to oil to gas such replacement has d they also include endogenous generation of s we show that doing so can yield projections with lessened environmental impacts without necessarily incurring negative e ect on the economy arriving on that path by the year 2100 depends on intervening actions such as incentives to promote greater diversity in technology and lower barriers to entry for new infrastructures that could accelerate historical trends of decarbonization 1999 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

the dynamic implications of increasing returns technological change and path dependent inefficiency this paper addresses the issue of path dependent selection and inefficiency counterfactual methods and the empirical evidence employed in this research trajectory the general message is basically that the theoretical argument to prove path dependent inefficiency is relatively straightforward while empirical demonstrations as well as the analysis of welfare implications are much more difficult in the first section we briefly state the basic argument explaining how localized learning leads to an incomplete exploration of the variety distribution of a technology we then synthesize the most interesting historical studies which get potential regret results and ask whether these results suggest a large welfare loss to try to answer this question we start from the critical arguments of liebowitz and margolis to discuss the theoretical and empirical difficulties of establishing path dependent inefficiency