post keynesian money endogeneity evidence in g 7 economies abstract post keynesian theory of money endogeneity emphasizes the importance of bank loans causing money supply changes thus the proponents of endogenous money supply assert banks create money by meeting money demands of economic agents money is said to originate as bank created loans from deposits which in turn create more loans under the endogenous money supply the traditional money supply theory asserts that deposits create money so money is exogenously created this paper provides new evidence on endogenous money supply across g 7 economies over 26 years using quarterly data with controls for monetary regime change effects bank loans cause money supply hence money is endogenous and the monetary regime effect appears to hold as crucial factors in money supply theory money supply behavior is exogenous during two short periods in the uk and the us when monetary targeting policies were in place

a unified bilevel programming framework for price based market clearing under marginal pricing market clearing in restructured power systems is mostly implemented through an offer based setting with the goal of maximizing social welfare this approach leads to sound results from an economic viewpoint when generation offers reflect true production costs however offers may significantly differ from actual costs in practice thus yielding undesired distortion under a marginal pricing scheme this paper presents a general bilevel programming framework for alternative market clearing procedures dependent on market clearing prices rather than on offers the resulting nonlinear mixed integer bilevel programming formulation is transformed into an equivalent single level mixed integer linear program suitable for efficient off the shelf software the bilevel formulation is investigated through a particular instance of price based market clearing driven by consumer payment minimization this problem has recently received considerable attention due to the open challenges posed from both modeling and computational perspectives numerical results are provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed approach

price pass through and the minimum wage this paper tests a textbook consequence of competitive markets that an industry wide increase in the price of labor is passed on to consumers through an increase in prices using several data sources on restaurant prices i explore the price impact of minimum wage hikes in canada and the united states particular attention is paid to the timing of these price responses to gauge the stickiness of minimum wage cost shocks i find that restaurant prices generally rise with changes in the wage bill and that this response is concentrated in the quarter surrounding the month during which the legislation is enacted

optimization based approach for price multiplicity in network constrained electricity markets this paper addresses the problem of price multiplicity in network constrained pool based electricity markets under marginal pricing this problem consists in the existence of multiple vectors of locational marginal prices for the same optimal market clearing dispatch solution as a consequence delicate conflicts of interest may arise among market participants price multiplicity may take place even in auction designs based on convex formulations for the market clearing procedure an effective duality based solution approach is proposed in this paper to handle the issue of price multiplicity once the optimal market clearing dispatch is known we propose the subsequent solution of a simple pricing problem in order to determine the vector of locational marginal prices unlike previously reported methodologies the proposed approach presents two salient features 1 it is based on sound mathematical programming and 2 it is computationally inexpensive since it relies on the solution of a linear program numerical results are provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed tool

on the solution of revenue and network constrained day ahead market clearing under marginal pricing part ii case studies this paper presents the numerical analysis of the bilevel programming approach for revenue and network constrained market clearing developed in its companion paper the impact of minimum revenue conditions and minimum declared profits on generation and consumption levels as well as on locational marginal prices for energy is examined in detail through three case studies first the results from an illustrative example including minimum revenue conditions are comprehensively analyzed the second case study is based on the ieee reliability test system and considers minimum declared profits in the third case study a modified version of the ieee 118 bus system is tested while accounting for minimum revenue conditions in addition the computational behavior of the proposed approach is illustrated with several case studies including the ieee 300 bus system numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach to handle revenue constraints as well as its superiority over the heuristic currently implemented in the iberian electricity market moreover simulations reveal that unlike previous works in the literature generation revenue constraints can be precisely incorporated in day ahead market clearing while explicitly considering the standard economic dispatch based marginal pricing scheme and without requiring price uplifts

credible research designs for minimum wage studies a response to neumark salas and wascher the authors assess the critique by neumark salas and wascher 2014 of minimum wage studies that found small effects on teen employment data from 1979 to 2014 contradict nsw the authors show th

reserve requirements to efficiently manage intra zonal congestion the security constrained unit commitment problem schedules power generators to minimize cost subject to operating constraints reserve requirements ensure that reserve is available to re balance the system following a contingency but do not guarantee reliability in congested systems where reserve activation is limited by transmission constraints operators improve reserve deliverability by limiting power flows and controlling the location of reserves zones are used to address inter zonal congestion but operators lack efficient ways to handle intra zonal congestion we propose dynamically relating minimum reserve levels to transmission stress in a computationally efficient approach that complements existing reserve models from the literature analysis on the ieee rts 96 test case demonstrates the approach can mitigate intra zonal congestion more economically than traditional reserve policies

debt relief and debtor outcomes measuring the effects of consumer bankruptcy protection consumer bankruptcy is one of the largest social insurance programs in the united states but little is known about its impact on debtors we use 500 000 bankruptcy filings matched to administrative tax and foreclosure data to estimate the impact of chapter 13 bankruptcy protection on subsequent outcomes exploiting the random assignment of bankruptcy filings to judges we find that chapter 13 protection increases annual earnings by 5 562 decreases five year mortality by 1 2 percentage points and decreases five year foreclosure rates by 19 1 percentage points these results come primarily from the deterioration of outcomes among dismissed filers not gains by granted filers jel d14 i12 j22 j31 k35

expanding credit access using randomized supply decisions to estimate the impacts expanding access to commercial credit is a key ingredient of financial development strategies there is less consensus on whether expanding access to consumer credit helps borrowers particularly when loans are extended at high interest rates popular skepticism about unproductive usurious lending is fueled by research highlighting behavioral biases that may induce overborrowing we estimate the impacts of expanding access to consumer credit at a 200 annual percentage rate apr using a field experiment and follow up data collection the randomly assigned marginal loans produced significant net benefits for borrowers across a wide range of outcomes there is also some evidence that the loans were profitable the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

optimal transmission switching sensitivity analysis and extensions in this paper we continue to analyze optimal dispatch of generation and transmission topology to meet load as a mixed integer program mip with binary variables representing the state of the transmission element line or transformer previous research showed a 25 savings by dispatching the ieee 118 bus test case this paper is an extension of that work it presents how changing the topology affects nodal prices load payment generation revenues cost and rents congestion rents and flowgate prices results indicate that changing the topology to cut costs typically results in lower load payments and higher generation rents for this network computational issues are also discussed

an evolutionary macroeconomic model of australian dollar m3 determination 1967 93 an evolutionary macroeconomic approach stressing institutional behaviour is used to estimate a model of australian dollar m3 it is estimated in first differences by both ordinary and two stage least squares a very stable endogenous money supply model is discovered a novel aspect is the inclusion of a real property value variable which plays a key role a small but very stable interest elasticity is recorded it is concluded that financial deregulation does not prevent us from discovering a stable australian m3 equation as is often suggested conclusions are drawn with respect to the conduct of monetary policy

econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change a methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometric model in the presence of structural change of an evolutionary type the theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn from the self organisation approach and operationalised in the context of the logistic diffusion growth model the latter is augmented to allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusion rate and boundary limit we show how the hypothesis of augmented logistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods an illustrative case study is used namely the growth and decline of australian building society deposits with the aid of this example it is shown how the approach could be of use to both economic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structural change where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate jel classification c51 c53 e42 e47 g18 o31

payday loan choices and consequences high cost consumer credit has proliferated in the past two decades raising regulatory scrutiny we match administrative data from a payday lender with nationally representative credit bureau files to examine the choices of payday loan applicants and assess whether payday loans help or harm borrowers we find consumers apply for payday loans when they have limited access to mainstream credit in addition the weakness of payday applicants credit histories is severe and longstanding based on regression discontinuity estimates we show that the effects of payday borrowing on credit scores and other measures of financial well being are close to zero we test the robustness of these null effects to many factors including features of the local market structure

the spending and debt response to minimum wage hikes abstract immediately following a minimum wage hike household income rises on average by about 250 per quarter and spending by roughly 700 per quarter for households with minimum wage workers most of the spending response is caused by a small number of households who purchase vehicles furthermore we find that the high spending levels are financed through increases in collateralized debt our results are consistent with a model where households can borrow against durables and face costs of adjusting their durables stock jel d12 d14 d91 j38

a stochastic programming model for a day ahead electricity market with real time reserve shortage pricing we present a multi period stochastic mixed integer programming model for power generation scheduling in a day ahead electricity market the model considers various scenarios and integrates the idea of reserve shortage pricing in real time instead of including all the possible scenarios we parsimoniously select a certain number of scenarios to limit the size of the model as realistic size models are still intractable for exact methods we propose a heuristic solution methodology based on scenario rolling that is capable of finding good quality feasible solutions within reasonable computation time

an extreme point subdifferential method for convex hull pricing in energy and reserve markets part i algorithm structure prices in electricity markets are given by the dual variables associated with the supply demand constraint in the dispatch problem however in unit commitment based day ahead markets these variables are not easy to obtain a common approach relies on re solving the dispatch problem with the commitment decisions fixed and utilizing the associated dual variables this avenue may lead to inadequate revenues to generators which has led to the introduction of uplift payments made by the market operator for further compensating the generators an alternative pricing mechanism known as convex hull pricing has been proposed to reduce or eliminate uplift payments computation of these prices requires the global maximization of an associated lagrangian dual problem in this paper we present an extreme point based procedure for obtaining a global maximizer unlike standard subgradient schemes where an arbitrary subgradient is used we present an extreme point subdifferential epsd algorithm this is a novel technique in which the steepest ascent direction is constructed by solving a continuous quadratic program the epsd algorithm initiates a move along this direction employing an a priori constant steplength with the intent of reaching the boundary of the face a backtracking scheme selects a steplength that ensures descent with respect to a suitably defined merit function as most electricity markets today co optimize energy and reserves an extension of the proposed convex hull pricing algorithm is provided for such integrated markets under suitable assumptions we compare outcomes of energy only and energy reserve co optimized markets under different pricing and uplift rules in these examples pricing rules have a major impact on the total payment while the uplift payment only accounts for a small portion of it we also observe that it remains unclear whether marginal cost pricing or convex hull pricing leads to higher total payment

the conduct of monetary policy nowadays the central bank of a country is the monopoly supplier of legal tender currency the commercial banks are committed to making their deposits convertible at par into such currency so the banks need to keep reserves in the form of currency and deposits at the central bank the central bank primarily conducts its policy by buying and selling financial securities e g treasury bills or foreign exchange in exchange for its own liabilities i e open market operations academic economists generally regard such operations as adjusting the quantitative volume of the banks reserve base and hence of the money stock with rates prices in such markets simultaneously determined by the interplay of demand and supply central bank practitioners almost always view themselves as unable to deny the banks the reserve base that the banking system requires and see themselves as setting the level of interest rates at which such reserve requirements are met with the quantity of money then simultaneously determined by the portfolio preferences of private sector banks and non banks this difference in perceptions is discussed again in section iii whether the monetary policy operations of central banks should be viewed primarily in terms of quantity or rate setting actions though of course one is the dual of the other these had allowed inflation and inflationary expectations to become entrenched by the end of the i970s a selection of representative statistics for a number of the leading industrialised countries is given in table i below this table indicates a common pattern among the countries of interaction between interest rates inflation and the growth of output the first period i969 78 is marked by high inflation negative real interest rates and slightly above average growth the second period i979 82 by very high nominal and high real interest rates high but falling inflation and very low output growth the final period i983 7 is marked by much lower inflation lower nominal but still high real interest rates and a recovery in output growth in some cases to above average rates in contrast the relationship in these countries between the growth of their chosen key monetary aggregate and nominal incomes appears much weaker also see clinton and chouraqui i987 especially p 7 whether measured in terms of monetary growth or in terms of real interest rates i e after adjustment for prospective future inflation policy during the

economic consequences of alternative solution methods for centralized unit commitment in day ahead electricity markets many wholesale electricity markets call on the independent system operator iso to determine day ahead schedules for generators based on a centralized unit commitment up until recently the lagrangian relaxation lr algorithm was the only practical means of solving an iso scale unit commitment problem and it was the solution technique used by most isos johnson et al 1 demonstrate however that equity incentive and efficiency issues will arise from use of lr solutions because different commitments that are similar in terms of total system costs can result in different surpluses to individual units recent advances in computing capabilities and optimization algorithms now make solution of the mixed integer programming mip formulation by means of branch and bound b b tractable often with optimality gaps smaller than those of lr algorithms which has led some isos to adopt b b algorithms and others proposing to do so with the move towards b b one obvious question is whether the use of mip will eliminate or reduce the issues with lr raised by johnson et al using actual market data from an iso we demonstrate that both lr and mip solutions will suffer the same equity issues unless the iso unit commitment problems can be solved to complete optimality within the allotted timeframe which is beyond current computational capabilities our results further demonstrate that the size of the payoff deviations are not monotone in the size of the optimality gap meaning smaller optimality gaps from b b will not necessarily mitigate the issues johnson et al raise we show that the use of make whole payments which ensure units recover any startup and no load costs not recovered by inframarginal energy rents can help to reduce surplus volatility and differences to some extent

exploiting naivete about self control in the credit market we develop a model of the credit market where competitive lenders oer long term contracts specifying a non linear schedule of possible repayment schedules to borrowers who may dier both in their taste for immediate gratication and their prior beliefs about that taste the equilibrium contract to a borrower with given beliefs is discontinuous it features an advantageous option involving fast repayment and a penalty for deviating and repaying later these predictions seem to resemble some salient features of many credit card and mortgage contracts for fully sophisticated borrowers the discontinuity acts as a commitment device and yields fast repayment but all other borrowers even those with an arbitrarily small amount of naivete end up delaying repayment despite the penalty and receive little benet from commitment furthermore because they believe they will repay early they underestimate the cost of credit and hence borrow too much non sophisticated borrowers cross subsidize sophisticated borrowers while sophisticated borrowers discipline rms by preventing very exploitative contracts we identify natural conditions under which the above results obtain even if

the determination of sterling m3 1963 88 an evolutionary macroeconomic approach an evolutionary approach which focuses upon the behavior of banks and their institutional links with the bank of england is used to understand the process of sterling m3 determination over 1963 88 it is argued on several grounds that this supply side approach is more fruitful than one that applies money demand theory furthermore the econometric methodology adopted is different to that generally found in the money demand literature in addition to the discovery of a stable evolutionary model of sterling m3 an important finding is that property prices are influential in its determination copyright 1992 by royal economic society