loss aversion and learning to bid bidding challenges learning theories even with the same bid experiences vary stochastically the same choice can result in either a gain or a loss in such an environment the question arises of how the nearly universally documented phenomenon of loss aversion affects the adaptive dynamics we analyse the impact of loss aversion in a simple auction using the experienced weighted attraction model of learning our experimental results suggest that individual learning dynamics are highly heterogeneous and affected by loss aversion to different degrees apart from that the experiment shows that loss aversion is not specific to rare decision making

risk rationality and time diversification the validity of the concept of time diversification is the subject of long running debate supporters of the concept argue that risk decreases as investment horizon increases detractors suggest that the concept is false on the face of it we argue that time diversification is consistent both theoretically and empirically with current conceptions of risk and rationality and we also note the implications of changes in investment horizon for stock market behavior

risk aversion in a dynamic asset allocation experiment we conduct a controlled laboratory experiment in the spirit of merton 1971 in which subjects dynamically choose their portfolio allocation between a risk free and risky asset using the optimal allocation of an investor with hyperbolic absolute risk aversion hara utility we fit the experimental choices to characterize the risk profile of our participants despite substantial heterogeneity decreasing absolute risk aversion and increasing relative risk aversion are the predominant types we also find some evidence of increased risk taking after a gain finally the session level risk attitudes show a different profile than the individual descriptions of risk attitudes

a cross country panel analysis of currency substitution and trade attention that has been directed toward the effect of trade on foreigner s holdings of domestic currency comes exclusiely from time series eidence here we extend a model of currency substitution that incorporates a trade motie for foreigners to hold domestic currency it uses time series and cross sectional information for a panel of 17 industrialized countries testing two way fixed effects models against pooled and random effects alternaties the cross sectional information is significant reealing that pooling of data could result in misleading inferences since country specific effects regional group effects and distance are all important determinants of

a general equilibrium model of portfolio insurance this article examines the effects of portfolio insurance on market and asset price dynamics in a general equilibrium continuous time model portfolio insurers are modeled as expected utility maximizing agents martingale methods are employed in solving the individual agents dynamic consumption portfolio problems comparisons are made between the optimal consumption processes optimally invested wealth and portfolio strategies of the portfolio insurers and normal agents at a general equilibrium level comparisons across economies reveal that the market volatility and risk premium are decreased and the asset and market price levels increased by the presence of portfolio insurance article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

fiscal discriminations in three wars in 1790 a u s paper dollar was widely held in disrepute something shoddy was not worth a continental by 1879 a u s paper dollar had become as good as gold these outcomes emerged from how the u s federal government financed three wars the american revolution the war of 1812 and the civil war in the beginning the u s government discriminated greatly in the returns it paid to different classes of creditors but that pattern of discrimination diminished over time in ways that eventually rehabilitated the reputation of federal paper money as a store of value

safe debt risky capital the author extends the diamond 1965 model of national debt in two directions she first introduces technological uncertainty and then she allows the stock of debt to vary the author studies the dynamical equilibria of the resulting stochastic system and she establishes conditions for the existence of stationary states that are expressed in terms of invariant distributions since conditions that ensure the existence of a stochastic stationary state with positive debt are very restrictive in this model financial instability is a pervasive phenomenon and allocations are in general dynamically inefficient copyright 1994 by the london school of economics and political science

variation in the real exchange rate as a source of currency substitution abstract this paper presents a shopping cost money service model in which it is shown that the real exchange rate influences the desired ratio of domestic to foreign currency bank deposits empirically it is found that if the real exchange rate value of the canadian dollar falls then us dollar deposits of canadians rise relative to canadian m2 this relationship is found to be cointegrated dynamic adjustment analyzed using an error correction model indicates a cyclical adjustment the results provide evidence that variation in the real exchange rate is a source of currency substitution and reinforces the argument that demand side factors influence the money stock jel e41

stationary pareto optimality of stochastic asset equilibria with overlapping generations abstract a way of establishing the stationary pareto optimality of asset equilibria in stochastic settings with age diversity among the agents is suggested difficulties in obtaining such results arise because agents behavior is affected by random future state variables while pareto optimality defined in terms of expected lifetime utility of representative agents conditioned on their first period state involves redistributions of consumption among agents with different histories of realized states frobenius theorem is used to establish the existence of weights for which the so weighted sum of representative agents conditional expected utilities is maximized at the asset equilibrium allocation

social identity and governance the behavioral response to female leaders this paper uses data from artefactual field experiments and surveys conducted in 61 villages in india to examine whether men and women respond differently to women as leaders we investigate the extent to which behavior towards female leaders is influenced by experience with women in leadership positions we find evidence of significant male backlash against female leaders which can be attributed to the transgression of social norms and in particular a violation of male identity when women are assigned to positions of leadership through gender based quotas increased exposure to female leaders reduces the extent of bias

uncertainty and the neutrality of government financing policy abstract some ideas from the theory of finance are applied to consider whether debt financed tax cuts affect desired consumption it is shown that government financing policy is a matter of indifference to infinitely lived households if a perfect substitute for public debt exists the analysis allows for uncertainty about future taxes and for missing markets in some kinds of assets income redistribution risk and the public insurance aspects of an income tax scheme qualify this neutrality result but in general the net effect is ambiguous the real resource costs of financial transacting as well as government superiority in the intermediation process may be one rationale for activist debt management policy a better understanding of functioning capital markets is essential to evaluate these arguments

a behavioral explanation for the negative asymmetric return volatility relation abstract we examine the short term dynamic relation between the s p 500 nasdaq 100 index return and changes in implied volatility at both the daily and intraday level neither the leverage hypothesis nor the volatility feedback hypothesis adequately explains the results alternatively we propose that the behavior of traders from the representativeness affect and extrapolation bias concepts of behavioral finance is consistent with our empirical results of a strong daily and intraday negative return implied volatility relation moreover both the presence and magnitude of the negative relation and the asymmetry between return and implied volatility are most closely associated with extreme changes in the index returns we also show that the strength of the relation is consistent with the implied volatility skew

bank regulation as an antidote to price level instability abstract we use an overlapping generations model with a risky storage technology to describe a new type of sunspot equilibrium characterized by excessive price level volatility and overinvestment in stored goods the features of this equilibrium lead us to interpret it as involving speculation and as arising when banks create excessive quantities of money this interpretation provides welfare justification for imposing quantity limits on the bank money stock we argue that the monetary regime established in england under peel s act imposed such a quantity limit our findings support quantity theorists traditional view that the possibility of overissue provides a rationale for bank regulation

indexing and inflation abstract much of the opposition to indexation as a means of adapting to ongoing inflation arises from the view that indexation is itself inflationary this paper examines the basic for that view in a simple macroeconomic model in which budget deficits are in part financed through the printing of money it is shown that all aspects of indexing wage indexation bond indexation and tax indexation tend to increase the impact on the price level of any inflationary shock however this association between indexation and inflation is in large part a consequence of the monetary and fiscal policies being followed by the government evidence from a cross section of forty countries on the effects of indexation on the inflationary impact of the oil price shock of 1973 1974 suggests that indexation did not in general increase the inflationary impact of the oil shock the evidence is further consistent with the view that the absence of an excess inflationary effect of indexation is a result of the countries with substantial indexation not having accommodated the oil price shock as much as other countries

optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion this paper analyzes the optimal investment strategy for loss averse investors assuming a complete market and general ito processes for the asset prices the loss averse investor follows a partial portfolio insurance strategy when the investor s planning horizon is short less than 5 years he or she considerably reduces the initial portfolio weight of stocks compared to an investor with smooth power utility the empirical section of the paper estimates the level of loss aversion implied by historical u s stock market data using a representative agent model we find that loss aversion and risk aversion cannot be disentangled empirically

allocative effects of financial assets and the long run neutrality of money when markets are incomplete abstract we analyze the allocative role of money as a numeraire in an intertemporal general equilibrium model with incomplete financial markets and nominal financial instruments it is shown that regardless of their return specification nominal assets in net supply increase the consumption risk and trigger an endogenous monetary process which diminishes the influence of these assets on the equilibrium allocation through time the nonneutrality of money claimed in the recent literature is a temporary phenomenon only asymptotically the traditional neutrality theorems are valid

the effect of myopia and loss aversion on risk taking an experimental test myopic loss aversion is the combination of a greater sensitivity to losses than to gains and a tendency to evaluate outcomes frequently two implications of myopic loss aversion are tested experimentally 1 investors who display myopic loss aversion will be more willing to accept risks if they evaluate their investments less often 2 if all payoffs are increased enough to eliminate losses investors will accept more risk in a task in which investors learn from experience both predictions are supported the investors who got the most frequent feedback and thus the most information took the least risk and earned the least money language en

international currency substitution and the income velocity of money abstract this paper presents new empirical evidence on the degree to which international currency substitution destabilizes domestic money demand it also provides an explanation of some apparent discrepancies among previous empirical studies of currency substitution this explanation hinges on the distinction between the elasticity of currency substitution and the cross elasticity of money demand a large small value of one elasticity does not imply a large small value of the other a large cross elasticity is required for currency substitution to destabilize domestic money demand the empirical evidence presented here is consistent with the view that these cross elasticities are typically small

assets general equilibrium and the neutrality of money when government liabilities including money are held in private portfolios only as stores of value and do not provide additional services such as liquidity real variables are not affected by changes in the money supply due to the government s trading in real assets open market operations this neutrality of monetary policy fails if the government either trades in nominal assets or it distributes subsidies and levies taxes the ability of monetary policy to affect real variables is an important issue and has been the subject of numerous theoretical and empirical studies the most useful theoretical framework within which to address the problem is a model of asset markets where the demand for money or other government liabilities is determined by rational portfolio choice tobin 1958 these assets may of course provide additional services such as transactions and liquidity we assume here however that these services do not exist the standard argument for the effectiveness of monetary policy goes as follows changes in the supply of money affect the price level and hence the distribution of returns to money as an asset as individuals realign their portfolios and prices adjust to maintain market clearing the equilibrium holdings of physical assets change in this case money is not neutral we shall argue however that as long as changes in the supply of money are effected through the government s trading in real assets this argument is in general not valid it is well known that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the method of injection of new money into the economy two procedures are used by the government to effect changes in the supply of money it either trades in assets nominal or real open market operations or it distributes subsidies and levies taxes we show here that open market operations in real assets capital or indexed bonds have no effects on real variables in a general equilibrium model with market clearing the argument which can also be applied to the management of the public debt is presented in a most general framework in the next section it does not depend on the existence of a complete system of contingent securities or on an operative bequest motive furthermore it is compatible with incomplete and differential information the result is similar to the modigliani miller theorem in corporate finance that an argument along these lines can be employed to demonstrate the irrelevance of open

optimal pension insurance design abstract in this paper we analyze how the traditional life and pension contracts with a guaranteed rate of return can be optimized to increase customers welfare given that the contracts have to be priced correctly we use individuals preferences to find the preferred design assuming crra utility we cannot explain the existence of any form of guarantees through numerical solutions we quantify the difference measured in certainty equivalents to the preferred merton solution of direct investments in a fixed proportion of risky and risk free assets the largest welfare loss seems to come from the fact that guarantees are effective by the end of each year not only by the expiry of the contract however the demand for products with guarantees may be explained through behavioral models we use cumulative prospect theory as an example showing that the optimal design is a simple contract with a life time guarantee and no default option

portfolio choice and trading volume with loss averse investors this paper presents a model of portfolio choice and stock trading volume with lossaverse investors the demand function for risky assets is discontinuous and non monotonic as wealth rises beyond a threshold investors follow a generalized portfolio insurance strategy this behavior is consistent with the evidence in favor of the disposition effect in addition loss averse investors will not hold stocks unless the equity premium is quite high the elasticity of the aggregate demand curve changes substantially depending on the distribution of wealth across investors in an equilibrium setting the model generates positive correlation between trading volume and stock return volatility but suggests that this relationship should be non linear

currency substitution and the demand for money some evidence for canada recently the possibility that foreign and domestic currencies are substitutes has received considerable attention see 1 2 3 10 19 21 currency substitution has important implications for the working of flexible exchange rates if the degree of currency substitution is high small changes in the money supply would induce large changes in the exchange rate furthermore currency substitution would transmit the effect of monetary disturbances from one country to another indeed significant currency substitution would seriously undermine the ability of flexible exchange rates to provide monetary independence this paper examines the empirical importance of currency substitution in the framework of the demand function for money if currency substitution is important the expected change in the exchange rate should be a significant determinant of the demand for home currency in section 2 we undertake such a test for the canadian demand for money during the recent flexible exchange rate period there is considerable evidence that the forward exchange rate is a good measure of the expected exchange rate our own tests confirm these results for canadian data since 1970

an experiment on risk taking and evaluation periods does the period over which individuals evaluate outcomes influence their investment in risky assets results from this study show that the more frequently returns are evaluated the more risk averse investors will be the results are in line with the behavioral hypothesis of myopic loss aversion which assumes that people are myopic in evaluating outcomes over time and are more sensitive to losses than to gains the results have relevance for the equity premium puzzle and also for the marketing strategies of fund managers

how loss averse are investors in financial markets abstract we investigate loss aversion in financial markets using a typical asset allocation problem our theoretical and empirical results show that investors in financial markets are more loss averse than assumed in the literature moreover loss aversion changes depending on market conditions investors become far more loss averse during bull markets than during bear markets indicating their more profound disutility for losses when others enjoy gains contrary to most previous results we find that investors are more sensitive to changes in losses than changes in gains

inflation and unemployment the world economy today is vastly different from the 1930s when seymour harris the chairman of this meeting infected me with his boundless enthusiasm for economics and his steadfast confidence in its capacity for good works economics is very different too both the science and its subject have changed and for the better since world war ii but there are some notable constants unemployment and inflation still preoccupy and perplex economists statesmen journalists housewives and everyone else the connection between them is the principal domestic economic burden of presidents and prime ministers and the major area of controversy and ignorance in macroeconomics i have chosen to review economic thought on this topic on this occasion partly because of its inevitable timeliness partly because of a personal interest reaching back to my first published work in 1941

systemic risk and asymmetric responses in the financial industry abstract to date an operational measure of systemic risk capturing nonlinear tail comovements between system wide and individual bank returns has not yet been developed this paper proposes an extension of the covar methodology in adrian and brunnermeier 2011 to capture the asymmetric response of the banking system to positive and negative shocks to the market valued balance sheets of individual banks building on a comprehensive sample of u s banks in the period 1990 2010 the evidence in this paper shows that ignoring asymmetries that feature tail interdependences may lead to a severe underestimation of systemic risk on average the relative impact on the system of a fall in individual market value is sevenfold that of an increase moreover the downward bias in systemic risk measuring from ignoring this asymmetric pattern increases with bank size in particular the conditional tail comovement between the banking system and a bank that is losing market value belonging to the top size sorted decile is nearly 5 5 times larger than the unconditional tail comovement versus 3 3 times for banks in the bottom decile the asymmetric model also produces much better fitting with the restriction that gives rise to the standard symmetric model being rejected for most firms in the sample particularly in the segment of large scale banks this result is important from a regulatory and supervisory perspective since the asymmetric generalization enhances the capacity to monitor systemic interdependences

why do we have nominal government debt abstract we study the choice between nominal and indexed debt in a stochastic macroeconomic model with discretionary monetary and fiscal policy with distortionary taxes nominal debt provides valuable insurance against the budgetary effects of economic fluctuations we show that a welfare maximizing government always issues some nominal debt even though nominal debt increases inflation along the time consistent path of the economy the result is fairly robust with respect to changes in assumptions about policy constraints and about the macroeconomic setting

optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process abstract we consider a consumption portfolio problem in continuous time under uncertainty a martingale technique is employed to characterize optimal consumption portfolio policies when there exist nonnegativity constraints on consumption and on final wealth we also provide a way to compute and verify optimal policies our verification theorem for optimal policies involves a linear partial differential equation unlike the nonlinear partial differential equation of dynamic programming the relationship between our approach and dynamic programming is discussed we demonstrate our technique by explicitly computing optimal policies in a series of examples in particular we solve the optimal consumption portfolio problem for hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility functions when the asset prices follow a geometric brownian motion the optimal policies in this case are no longer linear when nonnegativity constraints on consumption and on final wealth are included by these examples one can see that our approach is much easier than the dynamic programming approach

stochastic inflation and government provision of indexed bonds abstract this paper examines the consequences of using indexed bonds as one of the government financing instruments along with money and taxes it is shown that open market operations between money and indexed bonds do not matter in a real sense despite their different risk characteristics increasing the share of indexed bonds in the government portfolio increases the volatility and the conditional mean of real rates of return on money when provided by means other than open market operations indexed bonds can affect the allocation of resources but these reallocations cannot be pareto improving

currency substitution and monetary autonomy the foreign demand for us demand deposits abstract this paper presents new evidence of currency substitution using the two step estimator of cointegrated systems developed by engle and granger 1987 we estimate and find cointegration among variables suggested by the money services model of currency substitution following engle et al 1989 we estimate an error correction model for each of five countries allowing isolation of long term from short term influences on the foreign demand for us demand deposits our results suggest that currency substitution is a potentially significant phenomenon influencing long term monetary policy independence

from boom til bust how loss aversion affects asset prices this article studies the impact of heterogeneous loss averse investors on asset prices in very good states loss averse investors become gradually less risk averse as wealth rises above their reference point pushing up equity prices when wealth drops below the reference point the investors become risk seeking and demand for stocks increases drastically eventually leading to a forced sell off and stock market bust in bad states heterogeneity in reference points and initial wealth of the loss averse investors does not change the salient features of the equilibrium price process such as a relatively high equity premium high volatility and counter cyclical changes in the equity premium

the incidence of visible underemployment evidence for trinidad and tobago this article presents an empirical analysis of the incidence of visible underemployment in trinidad and tobago visible underemployment consists of workers who work less than the normal duration of working hours but are willing and available to work more we find that compared to other groups of the labour force the visibly underemployed tend to be less educated and are more likely to work in the private sector we also find that their revealed behaviour is consistent with their desire for more hours only about 50 per cent of the visibly underemployed are able to find full time employment within three months and little except firm size helps predict who will

evaluating the empirical evidence for currency substitution a case study of the demand for sterling in europe currency substitution has important implications for the cost of european monetary union if it is significant it will help to reduce costs of convergence to a single currency this paper informs the policy debate by testing for its existence on a consistent european database making use of cointegration methods the results demonstrate that in the two types of models tested there is no clear evidence of currency substitution in either the short or the long run and that therefore currency substitution between sterling and ec currencies cannot be relied upon as a mechanism or an aid to reduce the costs of monetary convergence copyright 1994 by royal economic society

equilibrium analysis of portfolio insurance a martingale approach is used to characterize general equilibrium in the presence of portfolio insurance insurers sell to noninsurers in bad states and general equilibrium requires that the risk premium rises to induce noninsurers to increase their holdings we show that portfolio insurance increases price volatility causes mean reversion in asset returns raises the sharpe ratio and volatility in bad states and causes volatility to be correlated with volume we also explain why out of the money sp that is the demand for an absolute level of price protection is equivalent to a demand for put options 1 we show that a similar argument can be used in a

on the denomination of government debt a critique of the portfolio balance approach abstract we show that some classes of sterilized interventions have no effect on equilibrium prices and quantities the proof does not require complete markets ricardian equivalence monetary neutrality or the law of one price moreover regressions of exchange rates or interest differentials on variables measuring debt s currency composition contain no information about the affectiveness of such interventions other interventions require changes in monetary and fiscal policy their effects depend generally on the influence of these changes on the economy and not on the intervention alone in short sterilized intervention is not as the portfolio balance approach indicates an extra policy instrument

irrelevance of open market operations in some economies with government currency being dominated in rate of return this paper describes an environment in which government issued currency is dominated in rate of return and in which there obtains a modigliani miller theorem for government open market operations earlier modigliani miller theorems for government finance have been stated for environments in which government issued currency is not dominated in rate of return in equilibrium since government issued currency is widely observed to be dominated in return it is useful to study how modigliani miller theorems hinge on absence of rate of return dominance

portfolio insurance and prospect theory investors popularity and optimal design of capital protected financial products abstract portfolio insurance strategies are used on both the institutional and the retail side of the asset management industry while standard utility theory struggles to provide an explanation this study justifies the popularity of portfolio insurance strategies in a behavioral finance context we run monte carlo simulations as well as historical simulations for popular portfolio insurance strategies and benchmark strategies in order to evaluate the outcomes using cumulative prospect theory our simulation results indicate that most portfolio insurance strategies are the preferred investment strategy for a prospect theory investor moreover the analysis provides insights into how portfolio insurance products should be designed and structured to meet the preferences of prospect theory investors as accurately as possible

currency substitution capital mobility and money demand abstract this paper re examines the currency substitution cs issue by specifying a general portfolio balance pb model where domestic residents demand for foreign money is distinguished from their demands for foreign non monetary assets the latter possibility which reflects international capital mobility as opposed to cs per se is already a key feature in the open economy macro literature the inclusion of foreign money leaves the usual asset demand functions unchanged in the pb model that ignores cs at least as far as the appropriate rate of return arguments and their signs are concerned although this suggests that cs is of limited importance in macro modelling it implication for the estimation of money demand functions is pursued an initial attempt is made to empirically isolate the separate efects of high capital mobility and currency substitution for canada germany the united kingdom and the united states the results while not conclusive due to high multicollinearity problems bring into question the empirical as well as the theoretical relevance of currency substitution

investment flexibility and the acceptance of risk abstract the hypothesis examined in this paper is that the greater the investor s flexibility the easier it is for him to change his portfolio depending on his results the more willing he will be to accept risks when the investor has no control on the size of the risky investment but can choose between one risky and one riskless asset this conjecture is shown to be correct however if there is more than one risky asset each period counterexamples demonstrate that flexibility rarely ensures greater risk taking for the standard portfolio problem in which investors are free to determine the size of their investment in a risky asset flexibility always raises the demand for the risky asset if constant relative risk aversion is less than unity but counterexamples can always be found when the constant relative risk aversion is larger than unity journal of economic literatureclassification numbers g11 d81 d84

the dynamics of inflation with constant deficit under expected regime change a model that describes the dynamics of inflation with a fully anticipated stabilization program is developed it is shown that with a constant deficit an economy tends to stay at the neighborhood of the lower of the two state inflation rates that are compatible with the deficit further increasing inflation rates prior to the stabilization are compatible only with deficits that are lower than the maximal feasible staedy state deficits and with a stabilization program that reduces the demand for real balances if these conditions are not met inflation decreases towards the stabilization date it is argued that the data generated by actual inflationary episodes fit the conditions described above and corroborate the model this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

how price path characteristics shape investment behavior abstract price paths are often the only graphical representation of financial products investors receive before making an investment decision we argue that price paths serve as graphical frames that influence the perceived attractiveness of an asset by highlighting specific asset characteristics in a controlled lab experiment we find that price paths have an impact on investment decisions in a regression we test a simple model relating the perception of price path shapes to several heuristics these heuristics are focusing on more recent outcomes deriving implicit reference prices from focal prices focusing on losses and estimating risk from the amplitude of the path we conclude that investment decisions are systematically biased due to the shape of an asset s price path

informational diversity over time and the optimality of monetary equilibria abstract the temporal realizations of a random state variable in an overlapping generations model create an informational diversity between members of different generations and require a reexamination of the optimality that competitive equilibria might display in such an environment using an optimality criterion that reflects this informational diversity we prove the optimality of competitive equilibrium in a model with a fixed stock of fiat money a single spot market and good endowments that follow a markov process the need for an optimality criterion that incorporates informational diversity is further motivated by studying the same model with the operation of complete contingent commodities markets

optimal asset allocation under linear loss aversion abstract we study the asset allocation of a linear loss averse la investor and compare it to the more traditional mean variance mv and conditional value at risk cvar investors first we derive conditions under which the la problem is equivalent to the mv and cvar problems and solve analytically the two asset problem of the la investor for a risk free and a risky asset then we run simulation experiments to study properties of the optimal la and mv portfolios under more realistic assumptions we find that under asymmetric dependence la portfolios outperform mv portfolios provided investors are sufficiently loss averse and dependence is large finally using 13 eu and us assets we implement the trading strategy of a linear la investor who reallocates his her portfolio on a monthly basis we find that la portfolios clearly outperform mv and cvar portfolios and that incorporating a dynamic update of the la parameters significantly improves the performance of la portfolios

long and short term interest rates in a risky world abstract the paper develops and tests a general equilibrium model in which variability or risk affects the choice of portfolios our measures of variability include only the variability of unanticipated growth in monetary and non monetary aggregates and our tests use data ending with the change in federal reserve procedures in october 1979 we find that increased variability of unanticipated money growth raises demands for debt and money and reduces the demand for real capital interest rates on both short and long term debt rise by a risk premium we estimate the size of the risk premium before and after the october 1979 change and we show that the change in federal reserve procedures moved the economy to a less efficient point

private saving and public debt a review essay private saving and public debt edited by m j boskin and s gorini basil blackwell oxford u k 1987 and based on the proceedings of a conference held in italy in 1985 is a well documented policy oriented guide to the analysis of recent fiscal developments several strands of research are represented in the volume some contributions provide a description of empirical and institutional facts while others analyze the theoretical foundations of different aspects of the public debt problem its impact on financial markets its connection with private saving behavior its international repercussions its effects on inflation and tax policy a unifying theme in the debate is an attempt to shift the focus of the analysis away from the keynesian emphasis on short run finetuning and towards a long run growth oriented perspective the most important issues addressed in the volume are the sustainability of public debt and the effects of government deficits on private saving

do agricultural outputs of partly autarkic peasants affect their health and nutrition evidence from rwanda abstract in rural areas of less developed countries because of market imperfections the health and nutritional status of peasants may directly depend on the production levels of specific agricultural goods rather than solely on income levels this channel of health and nutrition determination has never been studied in order to assess and test the empirical possibility of this channel we estimate the responses of health and nutritional status of autarkic agricultural households in rwanda with respect to differences in socio demographic characteristics and the main agricultural outputs and inputs while controlling for local environment and sampling scheme several food outputs are found to have a positive influence on health and nutrition whereas the production of traditional beers has a negative impact moreover greater land negatively affects health and nutrition conditionally on agricultural production perhaps because of a larger relative workload for households who have a large farm an alternative interpretation of the estimates is that they inform on the validity of the common hypothesis of perfect agricultural input output markets with no effect of agricultural inputs outputs on health and nutrition status this hypothesis is rejected

theory and relevance of currency substitution with case studies for canada and the netherlands antilles textabstractabstract this paper develops the theory of currency substitution from a choice theoretic point of view the main result offers a simple relationship between the relative amount of currencies held and their opportunity costs i e interest and capital gains our hypothesis is tested by case studies for canada and the netherlands antilles in contradistinction with other studies we conclude that the elasticity of currency substitution is very small and negative it is shown how the omission of the interest term in other studies biases the elasticity of currency substitution considerably

car mechanics in the lab investigating the behavior of real experts on experimental markets for credence goods credence goods such as car repairs or medical services are characterized by severe informational asymmetries between sellers and consumers leading to fraud in the form of provision of insufficient service undertreatment provision of unnecessary service overtreatment and charging too much for a given service overcharging recent experimental research involving a standard student subject pool has examined the influence of informational and market conditions on the type and level of fraud we investigate whether professional car mechanics as real sellers of credence goods react in the same way to changes in informational and institutional constraints while we find qualitatively similar effects in the fraud dimensions of undertreatment and overcharging for both subject pools car mechanics are significantly more prone to supplying unnecessary services in all conditions which could be a result of decision heuristics they learned in their professional training