battery electric vehicles looking behind to move forward abstract it is getting increasingly crucial for policymakers to acquire reliable price forecasts for battery electric vehicles bevs to make choices and set priorities here we examine the prospects for the wide deployment of bevs following an ex post analysis of their learning rate and an ex ante forecast of their price up to 2040 we make a clear distinction between the mainstream of bevs and a hypothetical group of bevs that are technically on a par with internal combustion vehicles icvs to do so we introduce a new index in which the driving range and max speed of a vehicle are coupled together i e the mobility diffusion coefficient we highlight different shares of battery packs i e 19 1 and the ensemble of electrification components e g battery pack electric motor power electronics i e electrification cost 52 2 in the price of a bev our price projections suggest that there is no prospect of breakeven between bevs and icvs before 2040 for both groups of bevs because the current learning rates of 9 2 and 15 1 for the price and electrification costs respectively of bevs strong and long term support from policymakers is required to ensure competitiveness of bevs with icvs in the near future

learning about a new technology pineapple in ghana this paper investigates the role of social learning in the diffusion of a new agri cultural technology in ghana we use unique data on farmers communication patterns to define each individual s information neighborhood conditional on many potentially confounding variables we find evidence that farmers adjust their inputs to align with those of their information neighbors who were surpris ingly successful in previous periods the relationship of these input adjustments to experience further indicates the presence of social learning in addition applying the same method to input choices for another crop of known technol ogy correctly indicates an absence of social learning effects jel d83 013 033 q16

are there multiple bubbles in the ethanol gasoline price ratio of brazil this paper tests for the existence of bubbles in the ethanol gasoline price ratio in brazil from 2000 to 2012 using right tailed adf tests results suggest the existence of two bubbles one which has already burst during the re election of president lula and one which has been ongoing since 2010 thus corroborating empirical and anecdotal evidence in the brazilian sugarcane industry freezing gasoline prices not only depressed ethanol prices but also depressed investments in new sugarcane crops and distillation plants

modeling regional economic dynamics spatial dependence spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearities abstract spatial modeling of economic phenomena requires the adoption of complex econometric tools which allow us to deal with important methodological issues such as spatial dependence spatial unobserved heterogeneity and nonlinearities in this paper we describe some recently developed econometric approaches i e spatial autoregressive semiparametric geoadditive models which address the three issues simultaneously we also illustrate the relative performance of these methods with an application to the case of house prices in the lucas county

emerging economic viability of grid defection in a northern climate using solar hybrid systems high demand for photovoltaic pv battery and small scale combined heat and power chp technologies are driving a virtuous cycle of technological improvements and cost reductions in off grid electric systems that increasingly compete with the grid market using a case study in the upper peninsula of michigan this paper quantifies the economic viability of off grid pv battery chp adoption and evaluates potential implications for grid based utility models the analysis shows that already some households could save money by switching to a solar hybrid off grid system in comparison to the effective electric rates they are currently paying across the region by 2020 92 of seasonal households and 75 of year round households are projected to meet electricity demands with lower costs furthermore 65 of all upper peninsula single family owner occupied households will both meet grid parity and be able to afford the systems by 2020 the results imply that economic circumstances could spur a positive feedback loop whereby grid electricity prices continue to rise and increasing numbers of customers choose alternatives sometimes referred to as a utility death spiral particularly in areas with relatively high electric utility rates utility companies and policy makers must take the potential for grid defection seriously when evaluating energy supply strategies

habit formation interdependent preferences and demographic effects in the almost ideal demand system the authors model myopic habit formation interdependence of preferences among consumers and demographic effects as taste shifters in a micro consumer demand model of the almost ideal demand variety the model is estimated for dutch micro data the authors investigate the dynamic properties of the model and find that it behaves very differently from models without interdependence of preferences the implications for micro macro modeling are discussed copyright 1991 by royal economic society

when do households invest in solar photovoltaics an application of prospect theory abstract while investments in renewable energy sources res are incentivized around the world the policy tools that do so are still poorly understood leading to costly misadjustments in many cases as a case study the deployment dynamics of residential solar photovoltaics pv invoked by the german feed in tariff legislation are investigated here we report a model showing that the question of when people invest in residential pv systems is found to be not only determined by profitability but also by profitability s change compared to the status quo this finding is interpreted in the light of loss aversion a concept developed in kahneman and tversky s prospect theory the model is able to reproduce most of the dynamics of the uptake with only a few financial and behavioral assumptions

child labor and the labor supply of other household members evidence from 1920 america this paper analyses the effect of child labor on household labor supply using 1920 us census micro data the aim of the analysis is to understand who in the household benefits from child labor in order to identify a source of exogenous variation in child labor i use state specific child labor laws i find that a rise in the proportion of working children by household is associated with no variation in parents labor supply i also find a strong negative externality among children as the proportion of working children by household rises everything else equal the probability that each child works falls while the probability that he attends school rises this suggests that parents redistribute entirely the returns from child labor to the children in the household consistent with a model of household labor supply with fully altruistic parents

the impact of obesity on wages abstract previous studies of the relationship between body weight and wages have found mixed results this paper uses a larger data set and several regres sion strategies in an attempt to generate more consistent estimates of the effect of weight on wages differences across gender race and ethnicity are explored this paperjnds that weight lowers wages for white females ols esti mates indicate that a difference in weight of two standard deviations roughly 65 pounds is associated with a difference in wages of 9 percent in absolute value this is equivalent to the wage effect of roughly one and a half years of education or three years of work experience negative cor relations between weight and wages observed for other gender ethnic groups appear to be due to unobserved heterogeneity i introduction several previous studies have found among females a negative cor relation between body weight and wages there exist three broad categories of ex planations for this finding the first explanation is that obesity lowers wages for example by lowering productivity or because of workplace discrimination the sec ond is that low wages cause obesity this would be true if poorer people consume

implications of delaying transport decarbonisation in the eu a systems analysis using the primes model abstract the transport sector decarbonisation represents an essential part of the ghg emissions reduction strategy of the eu for the 2030 and 2050 horizon the strategy presumes a far reaching structural system change towards the marketing of advanced electrified powertrains and use of energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen that are generated in a carbon free way the decade 2020 2030 is expected to set in motion the complex process of the necessary transformation of the power generation and transport systems which mandates the successful coordination of the interrelated market actors consumers and policy makers this paper presents a systems analysis that aims to assess what would happen if the decarbonisation strategy fails to develop as anticipated during the decade 2020 2030 we refer to this timeframe as the lost decade to answer this question our analysis is based on counterfactual scenarios quantified using the primes energy systems model the analysis concludes that the decade 2020 2030 is a critical point in this transformation limited progress in the coming decade would require the adoption of stringent policy measures beyond 2030 which along with the pressure to reduce emissions in a short period are found to increase substantially the total costs of the system

a comprehensive ex post assessment of res deployment in italy jobs value added and import leakages abstract taking a retrospective look at italy s experience over the period 2006 2014 this paper investigates to what extent the deployment of renewable energy sources res contributed to value added and employment in the economy from the methodological point of view our study combines an input output approach with a comprehensive bottom up analytical model in which detailed product information from external trade statistics is used to account for imports although during the period under consideration italy experienced an expansion in res capacity that went beyond the rosiest expectations it appears that the resulting demand for plant components was met to a very significant extent by imports we find that the contribution to sectoral value added and employment was not as large as envisioned by ex ante analyses in net terms the resources absorbed by res plants in the construction installation and manufacturing phase seem to have made a smaller contribution to the domestic economy than they would have in several counterfactual scenarios the opposite is true for the resources used in the subsequent operation and management phase finally our results suggest that variation in domestic content of manufactured products may limit the portability of res employment and value added factor estimates across countries

residential energy efficiency and distributed generation natural partners or competition abstract residential energy efficiency and distributed generation seem to be natural partners in our journey towards a more sustainable energy future a growing range of energy efficient consumer technologies and extraordinary declines in photovoltaics system prices has seen household electricity demand fall whilst a growing proportion of the remaining load is provided by household self generation australia is a particularly interesting example of these developments with around 15 of households now possessing a pv system while per capita household demand has also fallen markedly however existing retail electricity tariffs and regulatory arrangements can create mixed incentives for households contemplating both pv and energy efficiency options and for their network service providers this is certainly the case in australia with net metering arrangements that value self consumption of pv far more than pv exports to the grid there are also complex benefits for the electricity network created by these household energy resources that can be significant in this paper we use real household load and pv data from sydney households to model the potential implications of existing electricity tariff arrangements on the financial attractiveness of pv and energy efficiency we model these options separately and in combination for both households implementing these options and their network service providers our results highlight how inappropriate tariffs may well adversely impact on the value that the combination of energy efficiency and pv offers not only to households but also to their network service providers and suggest ways that such impacts might be ameliorated by acknowledging the benefits that these resources can offer to the electricity network

electric vehicles rising from the dead data needs for forecasting consumer response toward sustainable energy sources in personal transportation abstract since standard vehicles are powered by internal combustion mechanisms that rely on fossil fuels electric vehicles that are propelled by one or more electric engines have been proposed as an alternative to promote sustainable personal transportation in this paper we propose a general demand model for vehicle purchases at the individual level assuming that the necessary microdata is available we then list the ideal microdata that would be needed for estimating this general demand model for elaborating this list we take into account the particularities of low emission vehicles with emphasis in their cost reliability environmental benefits tradeoff as well as the potentiality for evaluation of welfare improving policies related to adoption of energy efficient technologies we discuss data sources and collection strategies for the different attributes of the model especially for those characteristics that are nonstandard such as symbolic values for instance we discuss the role of range anxiety as a barrier of adoption of electric vehicles and the implied relevance of including driving range to get consumers willingness to pay for better performing electric batteries

an economic perspective on experience curves and dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies this paper analyzes dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies the paper has two contributions the first is to test the robustness of experience in solar photovoltaic solar thermal and wind energy to the addition of an explicit time trend which has been done in experience studies for other industries but not for renewable energy technologies estimation is carried out on the assumption that cumulative capacity industry production average firm production and electricity generation affect experience and thus the fall in price the second contribution is to test the impact of r d on price reduction in general cumulative experience is found to be highly statistically significant when estimated alone and highly statistically insignificant when time is added to the model the effect of r d is small and statistically significant in solar photovoltaic technology and statistically insignificant in solar thermal and wind technologies

when will fossil fuel reserves be diminished crude oil coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply the size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that when non renewable energy will be diminished is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered this paper presents a new formula for calculating when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted and develops an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables the new formula is modified from the klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil coal and gas of approximately 35 107 and 37 years respectively this means that coal reserves are available up to 2112 and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042 in the econometrics model the main exogenous variables affecting oil coal and gas reserve trends are their consumption and respective prices between 1980 and 2006 the models for oil and gas reserves unexpectedly show a positive and significant relationship with consumption while presenting a negative and significant relationship with price the econometrics model for coal reserves however expectedly illustrates a negative and significant relationship with consumption and a positive and significant relationship with price consequently huge reserves of coal and low level coal prices in comparison to oil and gas make coal one of the main energy substitutions for oil and gas in the future under the assumption of coal as a clean energy source

reducing the cost of demand uncertainty through accurate response to early sales traditionally fashion products have incurred high losses due to stockouts and inventory obsolence because long lead times coupled with a concentrated selling season force all or at least most production to be committed before demand information is available under a quick response system lead times are shortened sufficiently to allow a greater portion of production to be scheduled in response to initial demand we model and analyze the decisions required under quick response and give a method for estimating the demand probability distributions needed in our model we applied these procedures with a major fashion skiwear firm and found that cost relative to the current informal response system was reduced by enough to increase profits by 60 relative to the cost that would have been incurred if no response were used optimized response reduces cost by enough to roughly quadruple profits

informal groups and health insurance take up evidence from a field experiment summary this paper presents the results of 20 randomized experiments aimed at understanding the low take up of in patient health insurance observed in developing countries take up does not increase when participants receive information about the product or an assistance to register or small subsidies of 2 10 or 30 take up does not increase when the same information is provided by local respected community leaders when participants are offered an in kind gift a chicken if they register when participants are offered the possibility to contribute lower and more frequent payments or the possibility to pay by cellphone a full subsidy generates a mere 45 take up with no retention after one year in contrast to these low take up rates presenting the same information without any subsidies to existing informal groups raises take up to 12 still 7 after one year as well as trust and knowledge of the product social networks play a major role in the adoption of health insurance this paper provides a cost effective way to increase take up of health insurance while subsidies are found to be largely ineffective at raising take up in the long run

economic factors affecting the increase in obesity in the united states differential response to price abstract a sharp increase in obesity during the last 15 years in the united states became one of the nation s main public health problems the theory of rational addiction seems to explain human behavior in food consumption leading to obesity reasonably well the interesting thing about our results is that the tax policy normally used to correct various distortions is to serve in this case as the preventive policy additional taxes on future prices of the addictive sweet foods contribute to lower sugar consumption and bmi at present time on the other hand increasing education level is usually considered a preventive type of policy in this case it leads to lowering the levels of the bmi in already overweight and obese population

the determinants of life expectancy an analysis of the oecd health data 1 introductionthis study is concerned with understanding the determinants of life expectancy in developed countries the level and variability of life expectancy has important implications for individual and aggregate human behavior it affects fertility behavior economic growth human capital investment intergenerational transfers and incentives for pension benefit claims zhang zhang and lee 2001 coile et al 2002 from the social planners perspective it has implications for public finance for example gradstein and kaganovich 2004 conclude that increasing longevity results in increasing public funding of education and economic growth cremer lozachmeur and pestieau 2004 p 2260 argue that early retirement puts pressure on the financing of healthcare and pension schemes and this pressure is made worse by growing longevity while typically assumed strictly exogenous for the purpose of policy analysis it has been argued that life expectancy or more broadly health is predetermined by behavioral and policy variables in what can be loosely described as a production function for health estimating this function is the goal of this study auster leveson and sarachek 1969 were the first economists to study a population production function for health a regression of state level mortality rates on medical care and environmental variables today their research motivations and questions remain compelling indeed given the size and rapid growth of health care related industries and recent public interest in containing medical and insurance costs it could be argued that understanding the socioeconomic determinants of societal health is more important today than ever moreover issues concerning the government s role in sponsoring basic medical and pharmaceutical research in regulating drug alcohol and tobacco consumption and in promoting healthy lifestyles are all particularly newsworthy the research questions related to public health are obvious if societal health can be measured as life expectancy or mortality rates what are the various socioeconomic factors that increase or decrease it can the marginal effects of these factors be disentangled if so which of these factors produces the largest health benefits or costs to society these questions are as important now as when first posed by auster leveson and sarachek in 1969 since auster leveson and sarachek several economic studies have attempted to answer these questions using data from the united states or multiple countries 1 many of these have used aggregate data from the member countries of the oecd to explain cross country mortality rates or life expectancies 2 while the empirical results are mixed the general consensus is that population life expectancy or mortality is a function of environmental measures e g wealth education safety regulation infrastructure lifestyle measures e g tobacco or alcohol consumption and health care consumption measures e g medical or pharmaceutical expenditures however the appropriate econometric methodology for disentangling these effects and its meaning for the relative importance statistical or economic of the estimated effects is more contentious these methodological issues are most vividly illustrated in the few studies that have focused on pharmaceutical expenditures as a separate input to life expectancy these include peltzman 1987 babazono and hillman 1994 lichtenberg 1996 1998 frech and miller 1999 and miller and frech 2000 for example peltzman 1987 examined the effects of wealth and prescription drug laws on infectious disease mortality and on poisoning mortality across middle income countries in a generalized least squares gls framework he found that wealth variables significantly decreased both disease and poisoning mortality rates while prescription drug laws had a significant and positive effect on poisoning mortality only

economics of food energy density and adolescent body weight foods increase body weight if the price of obtaining a calorie from dense food is lower than that of less dense food estimates of the determinants of adolescent bmi suggest that the price of high density food is negatively related to bmi whereas the price of low density food is positively related restaurant availability is not associated with weight but increases in supermarket density predict lower weight quantile regressions show that most of the changes in body weight occur in the top quintile of the conditional distribution of bmi

endogenous peer effects local aggregate or local average a b s t r a c t we develop a unified model embedding different behavioral mechanisms of social interac tions and design a statistical model selection test to differentiate between them in empirical applications this framework is applied to study peer effects in education effort in study ing and sport activities for adolescents in the united states we find that for education students tend to conform to the social norm of their friends while for sport activities both the social multiplier and the social norm effect matter

effect of large scale social interactions on body weight i estimate models of endogenous social interactions in body weight at the county and state levels the results show that dispersion in body weight across time and space in the u s is not clearly excessive and that much of this variation can be attributed to observable individual and regional characteristics models exploiting variants of methods proposed by glaeser et al 2003 fixed effects instrumental variable and split sample instrumental variable methods to address endogeneity suggest that there are not large social multipliers on body weight outcomes the evidence suggests there may be small multipliers on bmi obesity and morbid obesity there is no evidence that underweight is subject to a social multiplier the results are sensitive to specification

social ties within school classes the roles of gender ethnicity and having older siblings in this paper we identify the lines along which social ties between high school teenagers are primarily formed to this end we introduce interaction weights between pupils in the same school class that are a function of exogenous individual background characteristics such as gender ethnicity and having older siblings the resulting model with endogenous interactions and school specific fixed effects is estimated using data from the dutch national school youth survey nsys a survey in which in principle all pupils in a sampled class are interviewed by combining the 1992 1996 1999 and 2001 nsys data we are able to identify trends in social relationships of teenagers we find that the roles that gender and ethnicity play in how teenagers interact varies strongly across different types of behaviour for example going out shows strong within ethnicity interactions while expenditures on cell phones and on clothing exhibit mainly between girls interactions having older siblings has a minor effect on within school class social interactions there is weak evidence of decreased ethnic segregation within school classes during the decade considered

exploring the impact of permitting and local regulatory processes on residential solar prices in the united states abstract this article statistically isolates the impacts of city level permitting and other local regulatory processes on residential pv prices in the united states we combine data from two scoring mechanisms that independently capture local regulatory process efficiency with the largest dataset of installed pv prices in the united states we find that variations in local permitting procedures can lead to differences in average residential pv prices of approximately 0 18 w between the jurisdictions with the least favorable and most favorable permitting procedures between jurisdictions with scores across the middle 90 of the range i e 5th percentile to 95th percentile the difference is 0 14 w equivalent to a 700 2 2 difference in system costs for a typical 5 kw residential pv installation when considering variations not only in permitting practices but also in other local regulatory procedures price differences grow to 0 64 0 93 w between the least favorable and most favorable jurisdictions between jurisdictions with scores across the middle 90 of the range the difference is equivalent to a price impact of at least 2500 8 for a typical 5 kw residential pv installation these results highlight the magnitude of cost reduction that might be expected from streamlining local regulatory regimes

payoff complementarities and financial fragility evidence from mutual fund outflows the paper provides empirical evidence that strategic complementarities among investors generate fragility in financial markets analyzing mutual fund data we find that consistent with a theoretical model funds with illiquid assets where complementarities are stronger exhibit stronger sensitivity of outflows to bad past performance than funds with liquid assets we also find that this pattern disappears in funds where the shareholder base is composed mostly of large investors we present further evidence that these results are not attributable to alternative explanations based on the informativeness of past performance or on clientele effects we analyze the implications for funds performance and policies

patterns of attention to renewable energy in the british farming press from 1980 to 2013 abstract the farming sector is a major actor in developing renewable energy providing sites feedstock and investment media coverage can both drive and reflect levels of interest in renewable energy and affect policy support and farmer decision making about deployment this paper presents a content analysis of attention to renewable energy in the british farming press from 1980 to 2013 identifying the topics which sparked sustained media interest cycles of increased attention to specific types of renewable energy are made evident through quantification of article frequencies and qualitative analysis of content the findings contribute to the explanation of the role of information in the diffusion of renewable energy wind energy and liquid biofuels have received the most attention with multiple attention cycles whereas photovoltaics and anaerobic digestion have received focused attention only in recent years policy changes particularly support measures emerge as the most important driver of media attention although public controversies particularly in relation to wind energy lead to longer periods of attention attention typically increases when opportunities in renewable energy emerge and then quickly shifts to a longer stage of focused attention in which opportunities problems and solutions are explored and advice is offered before attention declines the media thus clearly play a role in informing farmers about opportunities arising in relation to renewable energy technology and policy developments but are less helpful in providing on going and consistent information about recurrent and more complex problems thus the farming press appears likely to have the strongest impact on early adopters of renewable technologies but is unlikely to contribute to diffusion at later stages when potential adopters are less willing to bear uncertainties

school attendance and child labor a model of collective behavior this paper theoretically investigates how community approval or disap proval aects school attendance and child labor and how aggregate behavior of the community feeds back towards the formation and persistence of an anti or pro schooling norm the proposed community model continues to take aggregate and idiosyncratic poverty into account as an important driver of low school attendance and child labor but it provides also an explanation for why equally poor villages or regions can display dierent attitudes towards schooling distinguishing between three dierent modes of child time allocation school attendance work and leisure the paper shows how the time costs of schooling and child labor productivity con tribute to the existence of a locally stable anti schooling norm it proposes policies that eectively exploit the social dynamics and initiate a permanent escape from the anti schooling equilibrium an extension of the model explores how an education contingent subsidy paid to the poorest families of a community manages to initiate a bandwagon eect towards education for all the optimal mechanism design of

the effect of policy incentives on electric vehicle adoption in order to increase the attractiveness of electric vehicles evs packages of policy incentives are provided in many countries however it is still unclear how effective different policy incenti

the impact of demand uncertainty on consumer subsidies for green technology adoption this paper studies government subsidies for green technology adoption while considering the manufacturing industry s response government subsidies offered directly to consumers impact the supplier s production and pricing decisions our analysis expands the current understanding of the price setting newsvendor model incorporating the external influence from the government who is now an additional player in the system we quantify how demand uncertainty impacts the various players government industry and consumers when designing policies we further show that for convex demand functions an increase in demand uncertainty leads to higher production quantities and lower prices resulting in lower profits for the supplier with this in mind one could expect consumer surplus to increase with uncertainty in fact we show that this is not always the case and that the uncertainty impact on consumer surplus depends on the trade off between lower prices and the possibility of underserving customers with h

latent homophily or social influence an empirical analysis of purchase within a social network consumers who are close to one another in a social network often make similar purchase decisions this similarity can result from latent homophily or social influence as well as common exogenous factors latent homophily means consumers who are connected to one another are likely to have similar characteristics and product preferences social influence refers to the ability of one consumer to directly influence another consumer s decision based upon their communication we present an empirical study of purchases of caller ring back tones using data from an asian mobile network that predicts consumers purchase timing and choice decisions we simultaneously measure latent homophily and social influence while also accounting for exogenous factors identification is achieved due to our dynamic panel data structure and the availability of detailed communication data we find strong influence effects and latent homophily effects in both the purchase timing and product choice decisions of consumers this paper was accepted by sandra slaughter information systems

on the sources of technological change assessing the evidence this paper uses a selective review of the economic literature on technological change to support four points that are important for interpreting and incorporating technological change into formal models of energy and the environment the review 1 supports the notion that no single source dominates the process of technological change it supports roles for rd 3 indicates that these spillovers are often indirect requiring own industry activities to utilize and 4 indicates that simple experience curve calibrations often used in formal models likely include a range of sources of technological change in addition to learning by doing some of which might not be induced by the sorts of policies typically considered in the climate context

optimal electric vehicle production strategy under subsidy and battery recycling abstract government subsidy and battery recycling are two common practical issues in the electric vehicle ev market this study investigates a loss averse ev manufacturer s optimal production strategy under uncertain market demand in the presence of both government subsidy and battery recycling an analytical model is built and related optimal solution and numerical experiments are provided results indicate that increased subsidy promotes the manufacturer s optimal production quantity and expected utility increased battery recycling rate promotes the manufacturer s optimal production quantity however the manufacturer s expected utility decreases with the battery recycling rate if the optimal production quantity is sufficiently small this result implies that the manufacturer may prefer a relatively small battery recycling rate when the market scale is small consequently the government should establish regulations to promote battery recycling for environmental protection we find that either subsidy or battery recycling can offset the negative effects of loss aversion on the optimal production quantity and expected utility the majority of our results still hold if we consider multiple repurposing options for used batteries or an alternative subsidy mechanism in particular the manufacturer s optimal production quantity and expected utility are higher under cost subsidy mechanism than under consumer subsidy mechanism

discrete choice with social interactions this paper provides an analysis of aggregate behavioural outcomes when individual utility exhibits social interaction effects we study generalized logistic models of individual choice which incorporate terms reflecting the desire of individuals to conform to the behaviour of others in an environment of noncooperative decisionmaking laws of large numbers are generated in such environments multiplicity of equilibria in these models which are equivalent to the existence of multiple self consistent means for average choice behaviour will exist when the social interactions exceed a particular threshold local stability of these multiple equilibria is also studied the properties of the noncooperative economy are contrasted with the properties of an economy in which a social planner determines the set of individual choices finally a likelihood function based on the theoretical model is given and conditions for the econometric identifiability of the model are established

a review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies a variety of mathematical models have been proposed to characterize and quantify the dependency of electricity supply technology costs on various drivers of technological change the most prevalent model form called a learning curve or experience curve is a log linear equation relating the unit cost of a technology to its cumulative installed capacity or electricity generated this one factor model is also the most common method used to represent endogenous technical change in large scale energy economic models that inform energy planning and policy analysis a characteristic parameter is the learning rate defined as the fractional reduction in cost for each doubling of cumulative production or capacity in this paper a literature review of the learning rates reported for 11 power generation technologies employing an array of fossil fuels nuclear and renewable energy sources is presented the review also includes multi factor models proposed for some energy technologies especially two factor models relating cost to cumulative expenditures for research and development r d as well as the cumulative installed capacity or electricity production of a technology for all technologies studied we found substantial variability as much as an order of magnitude in reported learning rates across different studies such variability is not readily explained by systematic differences in the time intervals geographic regions choice of independent variable or other parameters of each study this uncertainty in learning rates together with other limitations of current learning curve formulations suggests the need for much more careful and systematic examination of the influence of how different factors and assumptions affect policy relevant outcomes related to the future choice and cost of electricity supply and other energy technologies

clean evidence on peer effects we study subjects who were asked to fill letters into envelopes with a remuneration independent of output in the pair treatment two subjects worked at the same time in the same room and peer effects were possible in the single treatment subjects worked alone and peer effects were ruled out we find evidence of peer effects in the pair treatment because the standard deviations of output are smaller within pairs than between pairs moreover average output is higher in the pair treatment thus peer effects raise productivity finally low productivity workers are the most sensitive to the behavior of peers

affordability of electric vehicles for a sustainable transport system an economic and environmental analysis abstract this paper compares the economic and environmental benefits of electric and hybrid electric vehicles with that of conventional vehicles without tax credits only the hybrids without plug in incur lifetime total costs equivalent to a conventional vehicle whereas the consumer affordability for all other vehicles is less encouraging and depends on changes in gasoline prices with the provision of federal tax incentives the lifetime total cost for all electric vehicle types that are driven for 120 000 miles over 12 years was found to be generally affordable with no more than 5 higher in lifetime total cost than a conventional vehicle except the hybrid electric plug in equipped with a 35 mile electric driving range results of sensitivity analysis reveal that a greater lifetime driven mileage would promote further overall cost savings even at a greenhouse gas abatement cost as low as 42 per ton our study has demonstrated the importance of an energy policy that includes tax credits to address the inadequacy of cost differentials and consumer affordability the environmental benefits provided by the electric and hybrid electric vehicles should satisfy consumers interest in protecting the environment reducing the dependence on imported fossil fuels and switching from traditional to alternative fuel vehicles

towards successful environmental performance of sustainable cities intervening sectors a review abstract cities contribute around 80 of global greenhouse gas emissions there is currently a massive growth in urban areas internationally especially in developing countries urban centers and cities should offer an effective answer to new problems arising from planning and expansion according to criteria of sustainability decisions for sustainable cities planning and management should be taken on an evaluation of their consequences correspondingly each strategy should be designed and undertaken with the right tools of study analysis and prediction this paper aims to offer an analysis of the aspects involved in designing sustainable cities it involves an overview of published papers focusing on urban transport building energy consumption green areas planning waste management and water supply on a city wide scale in order to give a broader concept of sustainability in cities an analysis of other variables from a social point of view is also given the discussion of this research reflects that the adoption of mechanisms to promote sustainable development is a matter not only of decision makers and designers but also of users and citizens

revisiting the techno economic analysis process for building mounted grid connected solar photovoltaic systems part two application part one in this two part paper identified monte carlo analysis as an improved approach over traditional deterministic techno economic methods for solar pv prosumers in deregulated markets in this

potential dietary outcomes of changing relative prices of healthy and less healthy foods the case of ready to eat breakfast cereals abstract many prevalent and costly health disorders in the u s can be attributed in part to poor diets overconsumption of calories and physical inactivity taxing less healthy foods and subsidizing healthy foods as a strategy to improve diet and health has attracted growing interest among policy makers and researchers we test this strategy by using national household purchase data to estimate a censored price and expenditure endogenous demand system for 12 food groups that are commonly consumed at breakfast low and high nutrition ready to eat breakfast cereals eggs breads hot cereals breakfast bars juice whole and reduced fat milk yogurt meats and coffee the estimated demand elasticities are applied to nationally representative food intake data to simulate under the assumption of perfectly price elastic supply the potential dietary improvement from taxing low nutrition and subsidizing high nutrition ready to eat breakfast cereals we find that the demand for both types of cereals is own price inelastic suggesting that consumers are not likely to make large shifts in consumption of cereals if the price changes thus only limited dietary improvement can be expected from taxes and subsidies furthermore when the healthfulness of breakfast foods is evaluated using a comprehensive list of nutrients and food components a price intervention strategy may result in unintended adverse impacts our simulation results suggest that the hypothetical price intervention actually increases the calorie content of foods consumed at breakfast

ethnic capital and intergenerational mobility this paper analyzes the extent to which ethnic skill differentials are transmitted across generations i assume that ethnicity acts as an externality in the human capital accumulation process the skills of the next generation depend on parental inputs and on the quality of the ethnic environment in which parents make their investments or ethnic capital the empirical evidence reveals that the skills of today s generation depend not only on the skills of their parents but also on the average skills of the ethnic group in the parent s generation

the role of information and social interactions in retirement plan decisions evidence from a randomized experiment this paper analyzes a randomized experiment to shed light on the role of information and social interactions in employees decisions to enroll in a tax deferred account tda retirement plan within a large university the experiment encouraged a random sample of employees in a subset of departments to attend a benee ts information fair organized by the university by promising a monetary reward for attendance the experiment multiplied by more than e ve the attendance rate of these treated individuals relative to controls and tripled that of untreated individuals within departments where some individuals were treated tda enrollment e ve and eleven months after the fair was signie cantly higher in departments where some individuals were treated than in departments where nobody was treated however the effect on tda enrollment is almost as large for individuals in treated departments who did not receive the encouragement as for those who did we provide three interpretations differential treatment effects social network effects and motivational reward effects to account for these results

something to talk about social spillovers in movie consumption we exploit the randomness of weather and the relationship between weather and moviegoing to quantify social spillovers in movie consumption instrumenting for early viewership with plausibly exogenous weather shocks captured in lasso chosen instruments we find that shocks to opening weekend viewership are doubled over the following five weekends our estimated momentum arises almost exclusively at the local level and we find no evidence that it varies with either ex post movie quality or the precision of ex ante information about movie quality suggesting that the observed momentum is driven in part by a preference for shared experience and not only by social learning

a discrete choice model with social interactions with an application to high school teen behavior we develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents we characterize its equilibrium properties in particular the correspondence between interaction strength number of agents and the set of equilibria and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation methods in an empirical application we analyze the individual behavior of high school teenagers in almost 500 school classes from 70 schools in our baseline model endogenous social interaction effects are strong for behavior closely related to school truancy somewhat weaker for behavior partly related to school smoking cell phone ownership and moped ownership and absent for behavior far away from school asking parents permission for purchases intra gender interactions are generally much stronger than cross gender interactions in a model with school specific fixed effects social interaction effects are insignificant with the exception of intra gender interactions for truancy copyright c 2007 john wiley sons ltd

fast food costs and adolescent body mass index evidence from panel data this study draws on four waves of the 1997 national longitudinal survey of youth and external data to examine the relationship between adolescent body mass index bmi and fast food prices and fast food restaurant availability using panel data estimation methods to account for individual level unobserved heterogeneity analyses also control for contextual factors including general food prices and the availability of full service restaurants supermarkets grocery stores convenience stores and commercial physical activity related facilities the longitudinal individual level fixed effects results confirm cross sectional findings that the price of fast food but not the availability of fast food restaurants has a statistically significant effect on teen bmi with an estimated price elasticity of 0 08 the results suggest that the cross sectional model over estimates the price of fast food bmi effect by about 25 there is evidence that the weight of teens in low to middle socioeconomic status families is most sensitive to fast food prices

endogenous technological change and the policy mix in renewable power generation abstract this paper introduces the renewable power generation module which complements large scale macro econometric input output models by introducing technological change endogenously into the model so far technological change in renewable power generation technologies is either set exogenously autonomous energy improving technological change or price induced in economic models introducing endogenous technological change is necessary to adequately analyze not only the direct effects but also the indirect effects on important macro economic indicators such as growth employment welfare and trade as well as their feedback to the electricity sector the development of pv module and wind turbine prices is modeled using learning curves at the global scale i e depending on global capacity installed of each of these technologies national capacity additions in turn depend on global prices national policies and economic development while demand pull policies enhance capacity installations technology push policies do not seem to have a significant direct influence the empirical results confirm the overshooting of pv installations in germany which can be slowed down by introducing degression of feed in tariffs over time

evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules abstract photovoltaic pv module costs have declined rapidly over forty years but the reasons remain elusive here we advance a conceptual framework and quantitative method for quantifying the causes of cost changes in a technology and apply it to pv modules our method begins with a cost model that breaks down cost into variables that changed over time cost change equations are then derived to quantify each variable s contribution we distinguish between changes observed in variables of the cost model which we term low level mechanisms of cost reduction and research and development learning by doing and scale economies which we refer to as high level mechanisms we find that increased module efficiency was the leading low level cause of cost reduction in 1980 2012 contributing almost 25 of the decline government funded and private r d was the most important high level mechanism over this period after 2001 however scale economies became a more significant cause of cost reduction approaching r d in importance policies that stimulate market growth have played a key role in enabling pv s cost reduction through privately funded r d and scale economies and to a lesser extent learning by doing the method presented here can be adapted to retrospectively or prospectively study many technologies and performance metrics besides cost

reference dependent electric vehicle production strategy considering subsidies and consumer trade offs abstract in this paper we extend previous reference dependence newsvendor research by incorporating both consumer trade offs and government subsidies to evaluate the relevant influences on the optimal electric vehicle ev production decisions we present the properties of the model derive the closed form solutions for the model given the relevant constraints and use numerical experiments to illustrate the results we find that subsidies loss aversion the performance of both evs and internal combustion engine powered vehicles icevs and the coefficient of variation of demand are significant factors influencing the optimal production quantity and the expected utilities of ev production the high selling price and other high costs of icevs help offset the influence of loss aversion whereas the high costs of ev enhance loss aversion our study enriches the literature on subsidies for evs by establishing a behavioral model to incorporate the decision bias in terms of loss aversion at the firm level these findings provide guiding principles for both policymakers and ev managers for making better strategies to promote evs in the early immature market

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

consumers evaluation of national new energy vehicle policy in china an analysis based on a four paradigm model abstract the chinese government has issued numerous policies to promote the development and adoption of new energy vehicles nevs to address the problem of excessive energy consumption and environmental pollution in this study we divided these policies into seven categories macroscopic demonstration subsidization preferential tax technical support industry management and infrastructure since consumers opinions affect the policy choices of government based on questionnaire data we use a four paradigm model to analyze the consumers evaluation of each policy in terms of perceptions of importance and satisfaction the results show that macroscopic policies are perceived to be of high importance and satisfaction whereas for industry management policies they are perceived to be of low importance and satisfaction the importance perceptions of preferential tax and demonstration policies are low whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are high perceptions of the importance of subsidization technical support and infrastructure policies are high whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are low we find that the subsidization technical support and infrastructure policies need urgent improvement finally we put forward several suggestions to improve the current policies and increase the consumers intention to adopt nevs

an epidemic model of investor behavior i test whether social influence affects individual investors trading and stock returns in each of the 20 most active stocks in finland over 9 years the number of owners in a municipality multiplied by the number of investors who do not own a stock a measure of the rate of transmission of diseases and rumors through social contact predicts individual investor trading i control for known determinants of trade including daily news and show that competing explanations for the relation are unlikely socially motivated trades predict stock returns and the effects are not reversed suggesting that individuals share useful information individuals susceptibility to social influence has declined during the period but the opportunities for social influence have increased

the causes of childhood obesity a survey childhood obesity rates are rapidly rising in many countries since it is highly likely that obesity will persist into adulthood current rates undermine the health and future of people in developed as well as developing countries this public health epidemic carries significant economic social as well as individual level consequences and has become a research topic of significant interest for various disciplines including economics we survey the literature in economics and related disciplines associated with the causes of childhood obesity and synthesize the results to provide a better understanding of the explanations for the rising childhood obesity rates this is an important step in crafting effective policies to combat global childhood obesity trends

the social multiplier aggregate data is often used to make inferences about individual level behavior if there are social interactions in which one person s actions influence his neighbor s incentives or information then these inferences are inappropriate the presence of positive social interactions or strategic complementarities implies the existence of a social multiplier where aggregate relationships will overstate individual elasticities we present a brief model and then estimate the size of the social multiplier in three areas the impact of education on wages the impact of demographics on crime and group membership among dartmouth roommates in these contexts there is a significant social multiplier jel ho jo co

effects of family friends and relative prices on fruit and vegetable consumption by african american youths we investigate the effects of parents best friends and relative prices on fruit and vegetable consumption by african american youths using behavioral data from the family and community health study and area specific food prices from the quarterly food at home price database we construct a simultaneous equation ordered probit model that accounts for social interactions in fruit and vegetable consumption and specific aspects of the available food intake data we estimate statistically significant endogenous consumption effects between a youth and a parent lower relative prices tend to increase intakes particularly in the case of vegetables however the statistical significance of these effects is marginal the results indicate the existence of social multipliers in fruit and vegetable consumption in african american families the presence of these multipliers supports the design of youth parent based interventions to increase fruit and vegetable intake by african americans additionally intake also may be increased through relative price reductions

setting up charging electric stations within residential communities in current china gaming of government agencies and property management companies abstract the difficulty of charging electric vehicles evs is now hindering their further development governments generally choose to build stations for home charging including piles within residential communities given the conflict of interest between various government agencies and property management companies constructing a charging station within residential communities would result in welfare loss for the property management companies and therefore lead to the principal agent problem this paper constructs a two period imperfect information game theory model to study the moral hazard involved in this issue and government agencies optimal choice in the analytic solution of the model we find that the optimal choice for a farsighted government agency is to constantly improve the incentive mechanism and introduce charging stations only when the conflict of interest is eliminated any benefits derived from government regulations by force would prove short lived the government should focus on long term returns in the development of evs and its optimal mechanism should be designed to mitigate the principal agent problem of property management companies thereby accelerate the progress of ev charging infrastructure and improve overall social welfare

reference dependence in multilocation newsvendor models a structural analysis we propose a behavioral theory to predict actual ordering behavior in multilocation inventory systems the theory rests on a well known stylized fact of human behavior people s preferences are reference dependent we incorporate reference dependence into the newsvendor framework by assuming that there are psychological costs of leftovers and stockouts we also hypothesize that the psychological aversion to leftovers is greater than the disutility for stockouts we then experimentally test the proposed theory in both the centralized and decentralized inventory structures using subjects motivated by substantial financial incentives consistent with the proposed theory actual orders exhibit the so called pull to center bias and the degree of bias is greater in the high profit margin than in the low profit margin condition these systematic biases are shown to eliminate the risk pooling benefit when the demands across store locations are strongly correlated because the proposed model nests the standard inventory and ex post inventory error minimization theories as special cases one can systematically evaluate the predictive power of each alternative using the generalized likelihood principle we structurally estimate all three theories using the experimental data and the estimation results strongly suggest that the proposed behavioral theory captures actual orders and profits better we also conduct two experiments to validate the behavioral model by manipulating the relative salience of the psychological costs of leftovers versus that of stockouts to alleviate the pull to center bias

the dynamics of solar pv costs and prices as a challenge for technology forecasting an effective energy technology strategy has to balance between setting a stable long term framework for innovation while also responding to more immediate changes in technology cost and performance over the last decade rather than a steady progression along an established learning curve pv costs and prices have been volatile with increases or plateaus followed by rapid reductions the paper describes and considers the causes of recent changes in pv costs and prices at module and system level both international trends and more place specific contexts it finds that both module and system costs and price trends have reflected multiple overlapping forces established forecasting methods experience curves and engineering assessments have limited ability to capture key learning effects behind recent pv cost and price trends production scale effects industrial re organization and shakeouts international trade practices and national market dynamics these forces are likely to remain prominent aspect of technology learning effects in the foreseeable future and so are in need of improved more explicit representation in energy technology forecasting

economic overview of the use and production of photovoltaic solar energy in brazil abstract the technology of photovoltaic power generation has been increasingly regarded in many countries as an alternative to reduce the environmental impacts associated with climate changes and dependence on fossil fuels countries such as germany and other european countries have been developed specific regulatory mechanisms to encourage its use either by government programs or by financial and or tax incentives in brazil despite the large existing solar potential the encouragement to technology is still incipient this paper aims to demonstrate the key aspects of the evolution of regulatory incentives to use photovoltaic solar energy in brazil and present the technologies and characteristics of photovoltaic power generation

modeling choice interdependence in a social network this paper investigates how individuals product choices are influenced by the product choices of their connected others and how the influence mechanism may differ for fashion versus technology related products we conduct a novel field experiment to induce and observe choice interdependence in a closed social network in our experiment we conceptualize individuals choices to be driven by multiattribute utilities and we measure their initial attribute preferences prior to observing their choice interdependence and collecting network information these design elements help alleviate concerns in identifying social interaction effects from other confounds given that we have complete information on choices and their sequence we use a discrete time markov chain model nonetheless we also use a markov random field mrf model as an alternative when the information on choice sequence is missing we find significant social interaction effects our findings show that whereas experts exert asymmetrically gre

determining the impact of food price and income changes on body weight we develop a theoretical model to identify conditions under which price and income changes are most likely to change weight although it is intuitive that raising the price of high calorie food will decrease consumption of such goods it is not clear that such an outcome will actually reduce weight our empirical analysis demonstrates a case where a tax on food away from home a food intake category blamed for much of the rise in obesity could lead to an increase in body weight a finding which emphasizes the need to employ economic modeling when developing public policy to reduce obesity

the newsvendor problem review and directions for future research in this paper we review the contributions to date for analyzing the newsvendor problem our focus is on examining the specific extensions for analyzing this problem in the context of modeling customer demand supplier costs and the buyer risk profile more specifically we analyze the impact of market price marketing effort and stocking quantity on customer demand how supplier prices can serve as a coordination mechanism in a supply chain setting integrating alternative supplier pricing policies within the newsvendor framework and how the buyer s risk profile moderates the newsvendor order quantity decision for each of these areas we summarize the current literature and develop extensions finally we also propose directions for future research

decision bias in the newsvendor problem with a known demand distribution experimental evidence in the newsvendor problem a decision maker orders inventory before a one period selling season with stochastic demand if too much is ordered stock is left over at the end of the period whereas if too little is ordered sales are lost the expected profit maximizing order quantity is well known but little is known about how managers actually make these decisions we describe two experiments that investigate newsvendor decisions across different profit conditions results from these studies demonstrate that choices systematically deviate from those that maximize expected profit subjects order too few of high profit products and too many of low profit products these results are not consistent with risk aversion risk seeking preferences prospect theory preferences waste aversion stockout aversion or the consequences of underestimating opportunity costs two explanations are consistent with the data one subjects behave as if their utility function incorporates a preference to reduce ex post inventory error the absolute difference between the chosen quantity and realized demand two subjects suffer from the anchoring and insufficient adjustment bias feedback and training did not mitigate inventory order errors we suggest techniques to improve decision making

a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down the relationship between food prices and medical expenditures on diabetes we investigate the impact of changes in the relative price of low and high carbohydrate foods on medical expenditures for diabetes care using nielsen homescan price data merged to the 2000 2005 medical expenditure panel survey we find that an increase in low high carbohydrate food price increases decreases both the likelihood of a diabetes diagnosis and the level of medical expenditures among those with diabetes we also find small impacts of food prices on body mass index that differ by gender policy simulations suggest that subsidizing the low carbohydrate food purchases of people with diabetes could result in significant reductions in health care costs

welfare enhancing technological change and the growth of obesity the theory explores how technological change can produce obesity as an unintended consequence of economic development which reduces food prices and the strenuousness of work the empirical analysis presents a specific example of how food price declines can improve health and well being even in a developed country

income and outcomes a structural model of intrahousehold allocation there is evidence from several sources that one cannot treat many person households as a single decision maker if this is the case then factors such as the relative incomes of the household members may affect the final allocation decisions made by the household we develop a method of identifying how incomes affect outcomes given conventional family expenditure data the basic assumption we make is that household decision processes lead to efficient outcomes we apply our method to a sample of canadian couples with no children we find that the final allocations of expenditures on each partner depend significantly on their relative incomes and ages and on the level of lifetime wealth

adjusting vat rates to promote healthier diets in norway a censored quantile regression approach the effects of health related taxes and subsidies on food and beverages have mainly been investigated using models that assume identical price responses among high and low consuming households diet related health problems are however more likely among households with high intakes of unhealthy foods or low intakes of healthy foods than in households with average intakes in this article we focus on purchases of healthy and unhealthy foods among low median and high purchasing households the effects of an increase in the norwegian value added tax vat on some unhealthy foods and a removal of the vat on some healthy foods are investigated using censored quantile regressions we reject equality of the own price elasticities for eight of nine food and beverage groups we find that a vat increase is more effective in reducing purchases of unhealthy foods among high purchasing households than a vat removal is in increasing the purchases of healthy foods among low purchasing households