how to improve the performance of carbon tax in china abstract the chinese government committed to controlling carbon dioxide co 2 emissions and promoting development of non fossil fuels thus it becomes a top priority for the government to develop effective climate policies against such background this paper develops a new multi country computable general equilibrium cge model with detailed energy disaggregation this study evaluates the impact of single policy instrument carbon tax and combined policy mixes in order to investigate driving factors affecting the policy performance the main findings are as follows firstly the driving factors can be classified into two types the first type of factors affects cost effectiveness significantly while the second type generates considerable effect on emission performance secondly cross border externalities function as important barriers to the co 2 emission reduction since they imply extra competitiveness loss and result in considerable carbon leakage finally this paper considers two integrated policy mixes wherein carbon tax revenue is recycled to reduce capital tax or support clean energy subsidy these policy mixes can improve both cost effectiveness and emission performance and thus perform better than carbon tax alone in this way carbon tax revenue can be used to improve the performance looking ahead complicated policy mixes are preferred to improve the performance of china s carbon tax

build or buy strategies in the local loop we provide a dynamic model to study how the presence of the option to buy the incumbent local exchange carrier s ilec facilities via local loop unbundling affects the competitive local exchange carriers clecs incentives to build alternative infrastructures we show that an unregulated incumbent sets a rental path for its local loop which delays technology adoption compared to the case in which there is no unbundling we also characterize the equilibrium rental path set by the unregulated incumbent it is prohibitively high at the initial phases when there is no effective threat of entry with alternative technologies and it is decreasing over time in later phases the decrease in the rental price follows the rise of the entrant s opportunity cost of leasing lines we also argue that neither allowing higher prices for unbundled elements over time nor setting a sunset clause would suffice to induce facility based competition by studying the unregulated ilecs decision regarding unbundling we challenge the implicit assumption behind the sunset clauses which is that the ilec would either deny unbundling or charge too high a price for its network elements in the absence of regulation we claim that the ilecs that initially resist unbundling requirements would tend to charge attractive access prices relative to the entrants alternatives for their infrastructure which become less essential over time this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

lp modeling for asset liability management a survey of choices and simplifications dynamic linear programming lp models for asset liability management alm are quite powerful and flexible but face two challenges 1 many modeling choices not all consistent with one another or with finance theory and 2 solution difficulties due to the large number of scenarios obtained from standard interest rate models we first survey these modeling choices with a view to help researchers make self consistent choices next we review how the dynamic lp model for alm and the representation of uncertainty therein have been simplified in the past to motivate new or hybrid models emphasizing tractability to this end we review existing static lp models as extreme modeling simplifications and aggregation as a simplification of uncertainty

comparing climate policies to reduce carbon emissions in china new huadu business school research fund national social science foundation of china 12zd059 shandong social science planning fund program 12djjj12 independent innovation foundation of shandong university iifsdu 2012gn038 ministry of education research of social sciences china postdoctoral science foundation 2013m530309

climate policy and fiscal constraints do tax interactions outweigh carbon leakage climate policymaking faces twin challenges of carbon leakage and public sector revenue requirements a large literature advocates the use of carbon dioxide co2 pricing and recycling the revenues to lower distorting taxes as a way to minimize costs in this paper we explore the implications of labor tax interactions for the cost effectiveness of border adjustments and other measures to cope with leakage we find that for plausible values of labor supply elasticities the cost savings from revenue recycling are significant from 15 to 25 percent the cost savings from anti leakage measures are generally smaller but also significant particularly for small coalitions or more binding reduction targets tax interactions further enhance the cost savings from border adjustments but make other measures like rebates or exemptions less attractive

the cross country implications of alternative climate policies abstract because of worldwide growing concerns about global climate change great interest has been expressed in the potential of alternative climate policies to reduce global carbon emissions in this paper we compare cross country implications of alternative climate policies including unilateral and multilateral climate policies our main findings are as follows firstly there are large differences in cross country effects of alternative unilateral climate policies when the same given carbon emission reductions are achieved in each abating country respectively meanwhile cross border externalities undermine efficiency of unilateral climate policies secondly there are significant differences in cross country implications of alternative multilateral climate policies when the same global emission reductions are allocated in several different ways among abating countries thirdly it is difficult to reach a stable global climate treaty since any abating country has the incentive to argue for small carbon emission reductions finally multilateral climate policies can reduce the negative impacts of cross border externalities but cannot cure all cross border externalities looking ahead it will be a great policy challenge for the world to reduce carbon emissions in a cost effective way

alternative designs for tariffs on embodied carbon a global cost effectiveness analysis in the absence of effective world wide cooperation to curb global warming import tariffs on embodied carbon have been proposed as a potential supplement to unilateral emissions pricing we consider alternative designs for such tariffs and analyze their effects on global welfare within a multi region multi sector computable general equilibrium cge model of global trade and energy our analysis suggests that the most cost efficient policy could be region specific tariffs on all products based on direct plus electricity emissions in the end however the potential cost savings through carbon tariffs must be weighed against the administrative costs as well as legal issues and political considerations

bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology for contingent claims valuation this paper presents a unifying theory for valuing contingent claims under a stochastic term structure of interest rates the methodology based on the equivalent martingale measure technique takes as given an initial forward rate curve and a family of potential stochastic processee for its subsequent movements a no arbitrage condition restricts this family of processes yielding valuation formulae for interest rate sensitive contingent claims which do not explicitly depend on the market prices of risk examples are provided to illustrate the key results in relation to the term structure of interest rates arbitrage pricing theory has two purposes the first is to price all zero coupon default free bonds of varying maturities from a finite number of economic fundamentals called state variables the second is to price all interest rate sensitive contingent claims taking as given the prices of the zero coupon bonds this paper presents a general theory and a unifying framework for understanding arbitrage pricing theory in this context of which all existing arbitrage pricing models are special cases in particular vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 ball and torous 1983 ho and lee 1986 schaefer and schwartz 1987 and artzner and delbaen 1988 the primary contribution of this paper however is a new methodology for solving the second problem i e the pricing of interest rate sensitive contingent claims given the prices of all zero coupon bonds the methodology is new because i it imposes its stochastic structure directly on the evolution of the forward rate curve ii it does not require an inversion of the term structure to eliminate the market prices of risk from contingent claim values and iii it has a stochastic spot rate process with multiple stochastic factors influencing the term structure the model can be used to consistently price and hedge all contingent claims american or european on the term structure and it is derived from necessary and more importantly sufficient conditions for the absence of arbitrage the arbitrage pricing models of vasicek 1977 brennan and schwartz 1979 langetieg 1980 and artzner and delbaen 1988 all require an iformerly titled bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates a new methodology

a nonlinear mixed integer multiperiod firm model abstract we formulate and test an advanced multiperiod model for strategic firm planning this has not been previously considered as a mixed integer nonlinear problem minlp our approach is to show the differences between a linear and a nonlinear mixed integer approach the key property of our model is the simplicity and efficiency of generating optimal firm strategies a cornerstone for managerial acceptance our purpose is to maximize the discounted value of net income and return on investment roi our model has been tested on some major finnish firms and it seems to give reliable results with the data of our sample firm for this paper optimal roi and optimal net income presuppose different strategies when optimizing roi the model balances between cash and fixed assets while optimizing net income results in an intensive investment program even if our sample firm is but one case the results are indicative of some fundamental principles governing managerial decision making

potential competition in preemption games we consider a preemption game with two potential competitors who come into play at some random secret times the presence of a competitor is revealed to a player only when the former moves which terminates the game we show that all perfect bayesian equilibria give rise to the same distribution of players moving times moreover there exists a unique perfect bayesian equilibrium in which each player s behavior from any time on is independent of the date at which she came into play we flnd that competitive pressure is nonmonotonic over time and that private information tends to alleviate rent dissipation our results have a natural interpretation in terms of eroding reputations

unilateral climate policy design efficiency and equity implications of alternative instruments to reduce carbon leakage abstract global cost effectiveness of unilateral emission abatement can be seriously hampered by carbon leakage we assess three widely discussed proposals for leakage reduction carbon motivated border tax adjustments industry exemptions from carbon regulation and output based allocation of emission allowances we find that none of these measures amounts to a magic bullet when both efficiency and equity criteria matter compared to unilateral emission pricing alone border carbon adjustments are most effective in leakage reduction and promotion of global cost effectiveness but can markedly exacerbate regional inequality exemptions and output based allocation tend to avoid distributional pitfalls but are less effective in leakage reduction and global cost savings exemptions may even decrease global cost effectiveness of unilateral emission abatement

duration measures immunization and utility maximization abstract this paper explores the conditions under which a risk averse investor behaves like an immunizer in choosing the maturity structure of a balance sheet the setting is similar to grove s study in that the liabilities are assumed fixed but differs in the assumed evolution of interest rates m a grove on duration and the optimal maturity structure of the balance sheet bell journal of economics and management science 5 1974 696 709 it transpires that the circumstances under which a risk averse investor behave like an immunizer are not as limited as concluded in grove s study the model thus explains the extensive use of immunization by the business community

conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns evidence and forecasts this article presents new evidence about the time series behavior of stock prices daily return series exhibit significant levels of second order dependence and they cannot be modeled as linear white noise processes a reasonable return generating process is empirically shown to be a first order autoregressive process with conditionally heteroskedastic innovations in particular generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic garch 1 1 processes fit to data very satisfactorily various out of sample forecasts of monthly return variances are generated and compared statistically forecasts based on the garch model are found to be superior copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

measuring unified efficiency of chinese fossil fuel power plants intermediate approach combined with group heterogeneity and window analysis abstract as a newly proposed method intermediate approach has several unique features relative to conventional radial and non radial approaches this study contributes to the dea literature by combining intermediate approach with group heterogeneity in a time horizon this extended methodology has two important advantages since it can separate inefficiency related to different production frontiers originated from heterogeneity issue and provide steady results of time effects across periods empirically this method is used to examine unified efficiency of chinese fossil fuel power plants at provincial levels from 2005 to 2015 all provinces are classified into two regional groups our main findings are as follows first there exists significant group heterogeneity between coastal and inland provinces where coastal provinces outperform inland provinces second there are considerable differences in unified efficiency measures across provinces for most observations best practice gap ratio is the most important driving factor furthermore the relative importance of three decomposed indicators varies sharply across provinces finally the concept of managerial disposability should attract sufficient attention when designing environmental policies thus there should be more combined contributions from eco technology advancements along with managerial efficiency improvements by corporate leaders and policy makers this can a new direction for china s environmental policy

global energy subsidies an analytical taxonomy governments around the world have pledged to eliminate or sharply reduce subsidies to energy firms in order to increase economic efficiency and reduce environmental externalities yet definitions of subsidies vary widely and as a result estimates of their global magnitude vary by orders of magnitude i review why energy subsidies are so difficult to define and measure i show why some non standard measures are very poor proxies for subsidy costs and in fact may vary inversely with them in particular recent attempts to treat unpriced externalities as subsidies yield especially misleading results in general energy subsidies as conventionally understood do exist but only comprise a small portion of some very large recently reported estimates the bulk of which are indirect measures that may have little connection with actual costs to governments or allocational inefficiencies

exploring and controlling a bank s interest risk sensitivity analysis of an asset and liability co ordination model abstract for exploration and control of a bank s interest risk an asset and liability co ordination model is used that has been developed in close co operation with a big german commercial bank this model is capable of analyzing the sensitivity of a bank s interest surplus to sudden and unforeseen changes of the interest rate scenario furthermore a model based iterative procedure is suggested for control of interest risk by bank management a pragmatic approach is employed mainly in reference to the generation of alternative future interest rate scenarios the data required by the model are restricted to those that are usually available to commercial banks

some relations between volatility and serial correlations in stock market returns this article explores the relation between serial correlation and volatility for several different stock return series at daily and weekly frequencies it is found that serial correlations are changing over time and are related to stock return volatility an extension to the garch model is proposed and estimated revealing parameters consistent with other findings in this article copyright 1992 by university of chicago press

strategic timing of adoption of new technologies under uncertainty abstract in this paper we introduce experience effects into a duopoly game of timing of adoption of new technologies which exhibit exogenous technological progress departing from the existing literature with this model we obtain continuous and downward sloping reaction functions we find that a higher level of uncertainty increases the extent of dispersion between the equilibrium timings of adoption furthermore we find that the equilibrium timings are even more dispersed when the leader takes the follower s reaction into account when firm roles are made endogenous we find that if there is an incentive to lead follow the equilibrium timings are more less dispersed finally we show that it is possible for collusive adoption to improve welfare

accommodating diverse institutional investment objectives and constraints using non linear goal programming abstract institutional portfolio managers face a diverse mix of conflicting investment objectives and constraints such as risk and retum goals institutional liability considerations fund management legal restrictions institutional cash flow requirments and protfolio management performance targets this paper argues that lexicographic goal programming can be used to keep track of an institution s complex investment goals and will provide a best possible solution for the institution s portfolio selection problem three examples illustrate the applicability of non linear goal programming to institutions differing investment requirements

cost based modelling of optimal emission quota allocation abstract given that a fixed national emission reduction target could be achieved by imposing emission quotas among multiple decision making units under administration a novel nonlinear programming approach is proposed in this paper to obtain an optimal emission quota allocation in a least cost way marginal emission abatement cost curves are simulated based on the environmental performance and marginal emission abatement costs measured in a set of parametric directional output distance functions with multi inputs and multi outputs further the proposed model is applied to empirically investigate the optimal carbon emission quota allocation for china s building construction industry among thirty three provinces in three different regions the results indicate that the relatively developed eastern region in china has higher marginal emission abatement cost and can be imposed with more emission quotas while the central and western regions can undertake more emission reduction approximately 74 million rmb can be saved by implementing the optimal emission allocation proposed in this paper as compared to a uniform emission quota allocation the findings are of great theoretical methodological and practical significance for policymakers and social science researchers in terms of climate change mitigation

nonlinear dependence in finnish stock returns abstract past research into the evolution of finnish stock returns focuses on modeling linear and nonlinear dependence using various arima and garch formulations respectively this paper extends the extant work by using grassberger procaccia correlations dimensions to explore the nature of the nonlinear dynamics in daily finnish stock returns during the 1970s and 1980s nonlinear behavior in both periods is evident a simple garch model removes the nonlinearity in the first decade and dramatically reduces the nonlinearity in the second period this supports the notion that finnish stock returns exhibit nonlinear dependence but that the form of dependence is not chaotic

regulation and preemptive technology adoption two rival firms must decide if and when to adopt a new technology knowing how adoption costs decline over time and how profit flows vary with adoption patterns in many cases price and entry regulations beneficially slow technology adoption by making preemption strategies less attractive in some cases these regulations can so discourage a firm from preemption as to change the order in which firms adopt new technologies speeding one firm s adoption date and slowing the other s in the context of a particular scenario for cable and telephone companies adoption of new fiber optic technologies the case for lifting the cross ownership ban depends on the extent to which telephone companies are able to implement a superior technology reregulation of cable companies strengthens this case

regulatory delay and the timing of product innovation abstract this paper examines how regulatory delay affects innovation by a regulated firm when product introduction costs fall over time an extra day of regulatory delay increases time to introduction by more than a day when the uncertainty of regulatory delay increases a risk neutral firm responds by moving up the product introduction the model places testable restrictions on the empirical relationship between introduction delay and regulatory delay and is consistent with data gathered from a large u s telecommunications provider

how large are the impacts of carbon motivated border tax adjustments on china and how to mitigate them shandong social science planning fund program 12djjj12 independent innovation foundation of shandong university iifsdu 2012gn038 ministry of education research of social sciences youth funded projects 13yjc790065 national natural science foundation of china 71203186 71173170 china postdoctoral science foundation 2013m530309 2012t50802

nonlinear dynamics and stock returns simple deterministic systems are capable of generating chaotic output that mimics the output of stochastic systems for this reason algorithms have been developed to distinguish between these two alternatives these algorithms and related statistical tests are also useful in detecting the presence of nonlinear dependence in time series in this article the authors apply these procedures to stock returns and find evidence that indicates the presence of nonlinear dependence on weekly returns from the center for research in security prices value weighted index copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

free trade and global warming a trade theory view of the kyoto protocol this paper demonstrates how three important results in environmental economics true under mild conditions in closed economies are false or need serious amendment in a world with international trade in goods since the three results we highlight have framed much of the ongoing discussion and research on the kyoto protocol our viewpoint from trade theory suggests a re examination may be in order specifically we demonstrate that in an open trading world but not in a closed economy setting 1 unilateral emission reductions by the rich north can create self interested emission reductions by the unconstrained poor south 2 simple rules for allocating emission reductions across countries such as uniform reductions may well be efficient even if international trade in emission permits is not allowed and 3 when international emission permit trade does occur it may make both participants in the trade worse off and increase global emissions

chaos significance mechanism and economic applications imagine a bargaining model say involving diplomats negotiating tariff levels or a disarmament treaty in which each party has been instructed by higher headquarters to respond to each new offer by her opposite number with a counteroffer that is to be calculated from a simple reaction function provided in advance both negotiating parties are prohibited from revealing their own reaction functions to the other if the perfectly deterministic sequence of offers and counteroffers that must emerge from these simple rules were to begin to oscillate wildly and apparently at random the negotiations could easily break down as each party not understanding the source of the problem came to suspect the other side of duplicity and sabotage yet all that may be involved as we will see is the phenomenon referred to as chaos a case that is emphatically not pathological but in which a dynamic mechanism that is very simple and deterministic yields a time path so complicated that it will pass most standard tests of randomness chaos has become a subject of great interest to specialists and nonspecialists alike besides economics it has entered the literature of geometry physics ecology and meteorology it has been written about at length in the new york times magazine and scientific american as well as technical publications this article seeks to describe what it is how it works and what it means for economics

free entry and social inefficiency our goal is to provide a simple yet general exposition of the conditions under which the number of entrants in a free entry equilibrium is excessive insufficient or optimal our analysis compares the number of firms that enter a market when there is free entry with the number that would be desired by a social planner who is unable to control the behavior of firms once they are in the market that is we consider the second best problem of choosing the welfare maximizing number of firms while we take as given their noncompetitive behavior after entry we demonstrate that the crucial conditions for establishing the presence of an entry bias can be stated quite simply in terms of the outcome of the postentry game played by entrants in contrast to previous work we do not need to model this postentry game explicitly

a dynamic bank portfolio planning model with multiple scenarios multiple goals and changing priorities abstract the paper discusses a practical application of a two stage linear goal programming model to the management of the domestic and foreign currency denominated assets and liabilities of a large bank in finland the planning horizon includes three one year planning periods a number of alternative scenarios are used to describe uncertainty concerning future developments in these periods the scenarios are related to general economic conditions as well as the state of the domestic and foreign financial markets the bank is assumed to have multiple conflicting goals with different and changing priorities the goals deal with expected profits risk liquidity capital adequacy growth customer relationships and several other aspects of the bank s operations

cost effective unilateral climate policy design size matters given the bleak prospects for a global agreement on mitigating climate change pressure for unilateral abatement is increasing a major challenge is emissions leakage border carbon adjustments and output based allocation of emissions allowances can increase effectiveness of unilateral action but introduce distortions of their own we assess antileakage measures as a function of abatement coalition size we first develop a partial equilibrium analytical framework to see how these instruments affect emissions within and outside the coalition we then employ a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use to assess the strategies as the coalition grows we find that full border adjustments rank first in global cost effectiveness followed by import tariffs and output based rebates the differences across measures and their overall appeal decline as the abatement coalition grows in terms of cost the coalition countries prefer border carbon adjustments countries outside the coalition prefer output based rebates

a standard measure of risk and risk value models in this paper we propose a standard measure of risk that is based on the converted expected utility of normalized lotteries with zero expected values this measure of risk has many desirable properties that characterize the notion of risk it is very general and includes many previously proposed measures of risk as special cases moreover our standard measure of risk provides a preference based and unified method for risk studies since the standard measure of risk is compatible with the measure of expected utility it can be used explicitly or implicitly in an expected utility model under a condition called risk independence a decision could be made by explicitly trading off between risk and value which offers an alternative representation of the expected utility model named the standard risk value model finally we discuss some other applications of the standard measure of risk and extensions of our risk value tradeoff framework for descriptive decision making

innovation timing games a general framework with applications abstract we offer a new algorithm for analyzing innovation timing games its main advantage over the traditional approach is that it applies to problems that had previously been intractable we use the algorithm to examine two classical innovation problems we find that the competition takes the form of a waiting game with a second mover advantage either for any level of r d costs process innovation or for high r d costs product innovation moreover both models predict that the second mover advantage is monotonically increasing in the costs of r d

multiple criteria decision making combined with finance a categorized bibliographic study abstract this paper provides a categorized bibliography on the application of the techniques of multiple criteria decision making mcdm to problems and issues in finance a total of 265 references have been compiled and classified according to the methodological approaches of goal programming multiple objective programming the analytic hierarchy process etc and to the application areas of capital budgeting working capital management portfolio analysis etc the bibliography provides an overview of the literature on mcdm combined with finance shows how contributions to the area have come from all over the world facilitates access to the entirety of this heretofore fragmented literature and underscores the often multiple criterion nature of many problems in finance

entrepreneurial finance credit cards and race this paper examines the impact of financial deregulation on entrepreneurship we assess the impact of credit card deregulation on transitions into self employment using state level removal of credit card interest rate ceilings following the us supreme court s 1978 marquette decision as a quasi natural experiment we find that credit card deregulation increases the probability of entrepreneurial entry with a particularly strong effect for black entrepreneurs we demonstrate that these effects are magnified in states with a history of racial discrimination and link the results to discriminationbased barriers to entry 2012 elsevier b v all rights reserved

irreversible investment and r d spillovers in a dynamic duopoly investments in new production processes usually involve a significant amount of rd an increase in uncertainty delaying the equilibrium calls for higher subsidization rates third numerical simulations show that the spillover reduces the difference between the leader s and the follower s maximum value functions accordingly our model can help generate realistic market betas

innovation and imitation in an asymmetrically regulated industry abstract we model a game of innovation and imitation between a regulated firm and an unregulated firm although regulation may slow the industry wide pace of innovation it does not necessarily do so in fact by weakening the regulated firm s incentive to imitate a rival s successful new technology regulation may make the rival s innovation profitable thereby accelerating innovation by extension giving the regulated firm stronger incentives may backfire by producing either excessive or insufficient innovation these negative outcomes are more likely the greater is the cost reducing potential offered by the new technology

an interest rate risk management model for commercial banks abstract this paper develops a goal programming model to assist a commercial bank in managing its exposure to interest rate risk the bank s objective is to immunize its equity position against innovations in interest rates while maximizing its market value to accomplish this task a duration gap framework is developed that does not require interest rate forecasts as decision variables the model includes assets liabilities and off balance sheet derivative securities the focus is on a protective put strategy that uses options on interest rate futures but to provide contrast a short interest rate futures position is examined as well application of the model to an illustrative environment indicates that for larger interest rate changes the option strategy provides better protection against interest rate risk than the short futures position

market serial correlation on a small security market a note this note reports on an empirical investigation into the relative importance of different explanations of market serial correlation market serial correlation taken as the first order serial correlation in the logarithmic differences of a market index may apparently be explained by the serial correlation of individual stock returns the other less apparent explanation advanced in the literature concerns nonsynchronous trading in individual stocks recently perry 9 and atchinson butler and simonds 1 1 have shown that there seems to be yet an additional unexplained component present that tends to induce serial correlation in portfolio returns at least in u s data in this paper the actual contribution of these explanations to the first order autocorrelation of changes in the value weighted market index on a markedly thin security market the helsinki stock exchange hese 2 in finland will be examined the hese is a specific case in the sense that its trading procedure may create additional first order market serial correlation we will show that the rules of the exchange produce additional intraday nonsynchroneity in stock returns and thus aggravate the problem of market serial correlation an attempt to assess the importance of this additional cause of market serial correlation will also be made in 1966 lawrence fisher 7 observed that an index return calculated on the basis of the latest recorded trading prices will tend to be serially correlated if share prices tend to react similarly to certain types of news this will be the case when some share prices react almost immediately whereas others simply because of an absence of trading will experience a reaction delay if nonsynchronous trading is taken to be the first cause of market serial correlation the second one is the serial correlation of individual stock returns cohen hawawini maier schwartz and whitcomb 6 review the literature on why individual stock returns especially in thin markets may be serially corre

how to boost energy productivity in china s industrial sector an integrated decomposition framework based on multi dimensional factors abstract the industrial sector is a pillar for china s economy improving the energy productivity is of great significance to mitigate the discrepancy between energy use and energy supply as well as the economic development and environmental friendliness this paper extended the previous decomposition method by introducing six new components energy output oriented regional efficiency energy output oriented scale economy energy output oriented pure technical efficiency these new factors can uncover the impacts of regional balance development scale economy optimization and resource allocation efficiency change on energy productivity the main research results indicate that during the 2000 2016 period 1 industrial energy productivity yield progressively increased and the discrepancies of energy productivity in different regions were obvious eastern region represented the best energy productivity performance followed by the central and western regions 2 technological progress in both energy saving and production were two principal contributors to energy productivity growth overall the pure technical efficiency also promoted energy productivity suggesting that resource allocation efficiencies were performed well in both the energy market and the output market 3 by contrast both the energy and output oriented scale economy effect failed to promote energy productivity growth besides the energy oriented and output oriented regional efficiency had opposite impacts on energy productivity the former one had the inhibiting effects while the last one had the promoting effects finally several relevant suggestions for policymakers were provided

on vertical relations and the timing of technology adoption we study the timing of new technology adoption in markets with input outsourcing and thus with vertical relations we find that technology adoption can take place earlier when firms engage in input outsourcing than when they produce the input in house hence the presence of vertical relations can accelerate the adoption of a new technology we also find that particular features of a vertically related market such as the distribution of bargaining power and the contract type through which trading is conducted can crucially affect the speed of technology adoption

leakage welfare and cost effectiveness of carbon policy policymakers fear that a unilateral carbon policy will reduce competitiveness increase imports and lead to higher carbon emissions elsewhere leakage in fullerton karney and baylis 2012 we show that it may actually reduce emissions in other sectors negative leakage but reducing emissions in both sectors may merely reflect welfare costs of carbon policy that reduce real income and thus reduce consumption of both outputs these possibilities capture the concern that unilateral carbon policy might have a high cost per global unit of carbon abated that is low cost effectiveness based on harberger 1962 the two input two output analytical general equilibrium model of fullerton karney and baylis 2012 could represent two countries or two sectors of a closed economy each sector has some initial carbon tax or price and the paper solves for the effect of a small increase in one sector s carbon tax on the quantity of emissions in each sector but it does not solve for welfare effects here we use the same model but derive expressions for the costeffectiveness of a unilateral carbon tax the welfare cost per ton of emission reduction we show that higher leakage does not always mean lower welfare if one sector is already taxed at a higher rate then an increase in the other sector s tax might reduce deadweight loss from preexisting misallocations thus abatement can have negative cost the welfare cost most directly depends on the relative levels of tax in the two sectors we show that negative leakage always corresponds to a negative income effect but negative income

time dependent variance and the pricing of bond options in this paper we develop a model for valuing debt options that takes into account the changing characteristics of the underlying bond by assuming that the standard deviation of return is proportional to the bond s duration the resulting model uses the bond price as the single state variable and thus preserves much of the simplicity and robustness of the black scholes approach the paper provides comparisons between option prices computed using this model and those using the black scholes and brennan and schwartz models the last decade has seen a dramatic increase in the volatility of bond markets leading to a growing interest in financial instruments that can be used to hedge this risk thus in the u s canada and the u k there has been a proliferation of new interest rate dependent securities such as bond futures options on bonds options on bond futures swap agreements and bonds with option features such as callability putability retractability and so forth with the development of these markets the problems of valuation and the derivation of the hedging strategies have become subjects of increasing importance to both practitioners and academics several valuation methods have been suggested in the literature but so far no consensus has emerged as to the best solution to these problems the simplest approach to the valuation of debt options and probably the most widely used in practice is the black scholes model 3 this method originally developed for the valuation of stock options assumes that the variance of the rate of return on the underlying security is constant while this assumption is plausible for common stocks it is clearly unreasonable for bonds with a finite maturity the distinctive feature of the problem of debt option valuation is that the characteristics of the underlying asset change over time because the price is constrained to converge to the face value of the bond at maturity a second drawback of the black scholes approach is that it assumes a constant short term interest rate an assumption that is clearly inconsistent with stochastic returns on bonds in spite of these problems the black scholes model has been frequently used in practice to value debt options because of its overwhelming simplicity in comparison with other available methods

the effect of foreign bank presence on firm entry and exit in transition economies abstract this study investigates the impact of foreign bank penetration on firm entry in central and eastern europe acquisition of domestic banks by foreign investors has lowered rates of firm creation decreased the average size of entrants and increased firm exit in industries with greater informational opacity while entry of greenfield foreign banks appears to have spurred firm creation and exit we modify the view in earlier studies that informational opacity equates with firm size defining opacity in terms of technological characteristics for a given industry we find the economic significance of foreign bank entry is larger for opaque industries than industries with large shares of small firms the study provides evidence of increased credit constraints for start ups in central and eastern europe which is consistent with the theoretical proposition that the presence of foreign banks exacerbates informational asymmetries

a hybrid simulation optimisation scenario model for asset liability management abstract in this paper we desciibe a decision support model to sustain management of pension funds in the strategic planning of the available asset and liability policy instruments a main characteristic of the approach is that the relevant risk drivers are modelled by scenarios rather than by probability distributions we will describe the scenario generation methodology and how the scenarios are used by pension fund managers to simulate and improve asset liability strategies until a strategy is identified which is agreed upon by all who carry responsibility for the pension fund and her sponsors and trustees next we will describe how this process of managerial learning can be improved by a hybrid simulation optimisation method which applies concepts from the field of non linear global optimisation to determine the asset allocations which determine efficient frontiers of contribution rates and downside insolvency risks we will conclude by showing that the application of the developed models to a particular pension fund leads to the annulment of the infeasibility of the current asset liability policy on the one hand and to a reduction of the expected yearly contributions of us 100 million on the other

unilateral co2 reductions and carbon leakage the consequences of international trade in oil and basic materials a recursively dynamic general equilibrium model featuring six world regions with trade in energy and non energy goods is used to simulate the period from 1990 through 2100 in 10 year intervals the simulations explore the effect of unilateral action by the oecd to curb global co2 emissions unilateral cuts create incentives for free riding by non participating regions so that global emissions are reduced by less than the amount that the oecd cuts back its regional emissions carbon leakage occurs through two channels first basic materials production increases in unconstrained regions resulting in increased carbon intensity of gdp second reductions in oecd oil imports cause the world oil price to fall leading to an increased energy intensity in the non participant regions in this paper we use a general equilibrium model to assess the extent to which these two mechanisms reduce the effectiveness of oecd reductions in curbing global co2 concentrations

climate change policy market structure and carbon leakage abstract the 1997 kyoto protocol on climate change obliges the industrialized countries to initiate the international effort of abating anthropogenic greenhouse gas ghg emissions if such an initiative is to be taken the associated competitive effects may lead to significant relocation of developed countries energy intensive production this paper examines this issue i adopt an oligopolistic structure combined with increasing returns to scale production technologies to represent the strategic interaction among the firms producing energy intensive products this representation is then embedded within a multi regional computable general equilibrium model which in turn is used for quantifying these relocational effects the results suggest that significant relocation of energy intensive industries away from the oecd may occur depending on the type of market structure with leakage rates as high as 130 in which case ghg control policies in the industrialized countries actually lead to higher global emissions

r d and buyers waiting option anticipation of technological progress may induce buyers to delay the adoption of new technologies we analyze how buyers waiting option may feed back into firm s timing of innovations buyers are shown to have inefficiently weak incentives to wait for potentially better products this induces firms to accelerate the introduction of new products furthermore buyers inclination to adopt new technologies prematurely expands firms scope for preemption of potential rivals the analysis sheds light on r d competition in durable goods markets such as the market for aircraft

unbundling the local loop abstract we study competition for high bandwidth services in the telecommunications industry by introducing the possibility of unbundling the local loop where leased lines permit the entrant to provide services without building up its own infrastructure we use a dynamic model of technology adoption and study the incentives of the entrant to lease loops and compete service based and or to build up a new and more efficient infrastructure and compete facility based given the rental price we show that the incumbent sets too low a rental price for its loops hence the entrant adopts the new technology too late from a social welfare perspective the distortion may appear not only on the timing of technology adoption but also on the type quality of the new technology to be adopted we also show that while regulating the rental price may suffice to achieve socially desirable outcomes a sunset clause does not improve social welfare

assessing alternative solutions to carbon leakage abstract a modified version of the computable general equilibrium gtap e model is developed in order to assess the economic and carbon emission effects of alternative trade policy measures aimed at reducing carbon leakage we compare several unilateral policy measures implemented by countries subject to an emissions level cap results provide evidence of the scarce effectiveness of these policies in reducing the carbon leakage rate and conversely some of the trade measures that are discussed seem to be more consistent with the goal of protecting market shares of national firms in the domestic markets of abating countries assessing environmental and competitiveness outcomes jointly confirms that a global cooperative solution would be the most effective as well as an efficient policy option for reducing carbon leakage

will carbon motivated border tax adjustments function as a threat abstract due to large incremental carbon emissions china might become an important target country of cbta carbon motivated border tax adjustments to levy cbta could reduce china s emissions meanwhile china s emissions reduction could also be achieved by china s climate policies termed as cbta emissions equivalent policies this paper contributes to the discussion on cbta by comparing the potential regional effects of cbta and cbta emissions equivalent policies the main findings are as follows 1 cbta and cbta emissions equivalent policies would result in relocations of outputs across regions and countries affect the structure of economy and contribute to world s emissions reduction 2 there would be significant differences in the regional effects between cbta and cbta emissions equivalent policies 3 compared to carbon tax cbta would be a costly and inefficient policy instrument to reduce emissions but could function as an effective coercion strategy 4 these policies would result in competitiveness issue and rebound effects wherein different countries would be affected differently china is a large economy and energy consumer with high openness to international trade looking ahead the chinese government should consider the potential interactions between china and other economies when designing tax reforms

how does the implementation of the policy of electricity substitution influence green economic growth in china abstract to promote the level of electrification reduce environmental pollution and achieve the goal of clean energy usage and green economic growth in china the national development and reform commission and other eight departments jointly issued and implemented the policy of electricity substitution in 2016 electricity substitution aims to replace traditional fossil fuels such as coal and fuel oil with clean electric energy in different fields e g industry transportation and construction and deal with the pollutants at power generation however we still need to find out the exact impact of the policy of electricity substitution on energy saving and emission reduction in this paper we estimate the economically feasible increment of electricity demand according to different classifications in electricity substitution technology furthermore based on the input output model we discuss the relative influence of the policy of lectricity substitution the main conclusions are first the policy of electricity substitution alone is not adequate to reduce the dependence on fossil energy and environmental pollution under china s current power generation structure we should also increase the use of renewable energy second the power sector plays a leading role in stimulating economic output and the increasing electricity consumption due to the policy of electricity substitution can boost the green development of china s economy

preemption games with private information preemption games are widely used to model economic problems such as patent races we introduce private information into these games and allow for this information to stochastically change over time this reflects e g how r d competitors improve their innovations over time and keep these innovations secret before patenting them the analysis initially appears intractable because of the complexity of the equilibrium updating of beliefs on opponents information however we demonstrate the existence of a class of equilibria and calculate these equilibria in closed form we find that the expected durations in these equilibria are longer than when players information is public but in some cases shorter than in the collusive outcome hence r d secrecy slows down innovation disclosure

why are there large differences in performances when the same carbon emission reductions are achieved in different countries great interest has been in unilateral climate policies given present difficulty of establishing stable global coordinated agreements in this paper we investigate underlining factors explaining large differences in performances when the same carbon emission reductions are achieved in different abating countries to this end we develop a new multi country general equilibrium model incorporating six countries or world regions two goods six production inputs capital mobility energy mobility and international trade meanwhile we adopt two performance indicators with carbon leakage representing environmental efficiency and carbon emission abatement costs revealing cost effectiveness our findings are as follows firstly there are large differences in performances among these unilateral climate policies as evidenced by large differences in leakage rates and carbon emission abatement costs secondly the new global climate treaties to replace the kyoto protocol should be able to induce more carbon emission reductions in countries with low carbon emission reduction costs since such setting contributes to global cost savings finally developed countries have high carbon emission abatement costs compared with large developing countries china and india in this paper implying that there should be trade off mechanisms between efficiency and equity regarding how to allocate carbon emission reductions among countries

second mover advantages in the strategic adoption of new technology under uncertainty abstract this paper introduces technological uncertainty into a timing game of new technology adoption it is shown that the timing neither necessarily involves first mover advantages in precommitment equilibria reinganum review of economic studies xlviii 1981 395 405 nor rent equalization due to the threat of preemption fudenberg and tirole review of economic studies lii 1985 383 401 rather there may be second mover advantages because of informational spillovers furthermore the model predicts that the equilibrium payoffs will typically be discontinuous and non monotonic in the probability that the new technology is profitable a welfare analysis reveals several market failures and suggests that policy intervention should adequately depend on the nature of uncertainty and the rate of technological progress

a method for strategic asset liability management with an application to the federal home loan bank of new york strategic asset liability management is a primary concern in today s banking environment in this paper we present a methodology to assist in the process of asset liability selection in a stochastic interest rate environment in our approach a quadratic optimizer is embedded in a simulation model and used to generate patterns of dividends market value and duration of capital for randomly generated interest rate scenarios this approach can be used to formulate test and refine asset liability strategies we present results of applying this methodology to data from the federal home loan bank of new york

impacts of climate policy on the competitiveness of canadian industry how big and how to mitigate competitiveness concerns have been at the forefront of climate policy debates in canada particularly as a result of its high energy intensity and significant exposure to international markets this paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the likely impacts on sectoral competitiveness that would accompany efforts to meet greenhouse gas mitigation targets that have been set by the canadian government additionally it evaluates several design mechanisms that could be used to reduce the negative competiveness impacts associated with adoption of domestic climate policies the analysis suggests that several sectors would likely face significant competiveness challenges under a reference scenario in which permits are given to emitters in lump sum however it finds that competiveness impacts can be minimized by using output based recycling of permits or by using border tax adjustments

managing interest rate risk in banking institutions abstract this paper develops and employs a multiperiod goal programming model to examine the normative effects of changing interest rates on the rearrangements of depository bank balance sheets and associated profits a two stage state preference framework allows a dynamic interpretation of the model s prescribed decisions as well as a natural incorporation of profit sensitivity to interest rate risk the model includes on and off the balance sheet decision variables experimental results indicate that constraining the latter decision can seriously curtail the bank s ability to achieve its profit objectives

r d in the presence of network externalities timing and compatibility two rival firms decide on the time of r d and whether the new products should be compatible i show that network externalities may induce the firms to introduce new incompatible technologies early which is socially harmful as the r d costs increase and de facto standardization becomes less likely compared with the equilibrium outcome both firms may gain by delaying the introduction of incompatible technologies by agreeing on common standards before product introduction entry is delayed and profit may increase an ex post optimal standardization policy may increase the incentives for early product introduction and consequently be an undesirable policy ex ante

patent rights and innovation disclosure this article studies optimal patents with respect to the timing of innovation disclosure in a simple model we identify forces that lead firms to either suboptimally patent too early or too late in equilibrium and we determine conditions so that stronger patents induce earlier or later equilibrium disclosure then by solving an infinite multistage patent game with a more explicit structure we describe innovation growth and derive detailed predictions that can be used for policy experiments as an application we calibrate our multistage game using summary statistics from the seeds breeding industry we find that weaker patent rights may result in welfare gains of 46 relative to the status quo the gains are achieved because weaker patents reduce competition thus leading firms to postpone patenting

timing of technology adoption and product market competition abstract this paper examines how product market competition affects firms timing of adopting a new technology as well as whether the market provides sufficient adoption incentives it demonstrates that adoption dates differ not only among symmetric firms but also among markets with different market features more specifically technology adoption can occur earlier in a market with cournot competition than in a market with bertrand competition it can also occur earlier in a market in which goods are not too close substitutes therefore this paper shows that competition toughness does not always reinforce adoption incentives when goods are sufficiently differentiated adoption occurs later than is socially optimal

persistence in variance structural change and the garch model this article examines the persistence of the variance as measured by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity garch model in stock return data in particular we investigate the extent to which persistence in variance may be overstated because of the existence of and failure to take account of deterministic structural shifts in the model both an analysis of daily stock return data and a monte carlo simulation experiment confirm the hypothesis that garch measures of persistence in variance are sensitive to this type of model misspecification

capturing the correlations of fixed income instruments this paper develops a framework for managing portfolios of fixed income instruments based on traditional principles from the equities market i e based on diversification it shows through an analysis of the high yield bond market over the period 1987 to 1991 that fixed income prices could be highly correlated these correlations can be quantified and integrated in a systematic way in an asset liability management framework for vanishing fixed income securities however we cannot resort to statistical analysis of historical data in order to quantify correlations the paper develops a forward looking simulation procedure for capturing correlations applications are illustrated for examples from high yield bonds and mortgage backed securities the superiority of the proposed approach over the traditional portfolio immunization techniques is demonstrated in the context of funding an insurance liability stream with mortgage instruments

fixed rate loan commitments take down risk and the dynamics of hedging with futures this paper develops a normative model to analyze the hedging and fee pricing decisions of a financial institution supplying fixed rate loan commitments to its customers in supplying fixed rate loan commitments the financial institution hereafter referred to as bank is assumed to act as an agent that transforms commitment risk through the use of financial futures contracts while most pre vious loan commitment models have analyzed the interest rate or price risk the bank faces in supplying fixed rate loan commitments they either have ignored or assumed away the loan take down or quantity risk l in general by making a formal fixed rate loan commitment the bank exposes itself to both a price and a quantity risk specifically a formal loan com mitment prespecifies the maximum size of the loan the purpose of the loan of ten project specific as well as the interest rate and fee to be paid by the borrower 14 15 however while a formal loan commitment imposes a contractual re quirement on the bank to supply funds up to a maximum amount at an agreed rate of interest the expected size of the loan to be taken down is often uncertain the reason is that for project specific lines of credit the amount taken down will depend on the future state s of the world that are revealed to the borrower at the end of the commitment period as well as on the limitations and constraints im posed on the use of funds in the loan commitment contract for example construction delays and other market imperfections that hamper a planned invest

does local financial development matter we study the effects of differences in local financial development within an integrated financial market we construct a new indicator of financial development by estimating a regional effect on the probability that ceteris paribus a household is shut off from the credit market by using this indicator we find that financial development enhances the probability an individual starts his own business favors entry of new firms increases competition and promotes growth as predicted by theory these effects are weaker for larger firms which can more easily raise funds outside of the local area these effects are present even when we instrument our indicator with the structure of the local banking markets in 1936 which because of regulatory reasons affected the supply of credit in the following 50 years overall the results suggest local financial development is an important determinant of the economic success of an area even in an environment where there are no frictions to capital movements

stock returns and volatility most asset pricing models postulate a positive relationship between a stock portfolio s expected returns and risk which is often modeled by the variance of the asset price this paper uses garch in mean models to examine the relationship between mean returns on a stock portfolio and its conditional variance or standard deviation after estimating a variety of models from daily and monthly portfolio return data we conclude that any relationship between mean returns and own variance or standard deviation is weak the results suggest that investors consider some other risk measure to be more important than the variance of portfolio returns

pricing interest rate derivative securities this article shows that the one state variableinterest rate models of vasicek 1977 and cox ingersoll and ross 1985b can be extended sothat they are consistent with both the current termstructure of interest rates and either the currentvolatilities of all spot interest rates or the currentvolatilities of all forward interest rates theextended vasicek model is shown to be very tracta ble analytically the article compares option pricesobtained using the extended vasicek model withthose obtained using a number of other models