kaldor s growth analysis revisited kaldor s laws on manufacturing as the engine of growth have been tested using cross country data mainly from developing countries for the period 1960 1994 instrumental variable techniques were used to explore problems associated with simultaneity and spuriousness it has been found that manufacturing output growth rate is exogenous as kaldor envisaged and his laws are applicable to most of the developing world

opposition parties and the urban poor in african democracies africa s urban poor increasingly represent a key constituency for electoral mobilization opposition parties which are pivotal for democratic consolidation have nevertheless exhibited disparate success at obtaining votes from this constituency to explain why this study focuses on the case of zambia and draws on interviews with political elites as well as a survey of informal sector workers in lusaka instead of vote buying ethnic alignments or economic voting these data show that the urban poor s voting decisions are related to the strategies used by political parties to incorporate them into the political arena opposition parties that employ populist strategies are more likely to win support from the urban poor than parties reliant on alternative modes of mobilization the advantages of a populist strategy include greater differentiation from the myriad of purely personalistic parties in africa and greater congruence with the policy priorities of the urban poor including service delivery and jobs

dependence distorted development and fertility trends in noncore nations a structural analysis of cross national data to evaluate the hypothesis that dependence on developed nations distorts demographic development in less developed countries ldcs a researcher used panel regression analysis to study variables from 62 nations multinational corporate penetration an estimate of the shares of both a nations capital and its labor that are controlled by developed country based transnational corporations was used as a measure of the level of dependence the analysis demonstrated that school enrollment was highly correlated with level of development social insurance program history and both family planning effort fpe measures in addition countries that underwent the most economic growth the most concerted fpes etc had the most rapid decline in fertility rates conversely those with high levels of multinational corporate penetration dependency experienced either an increase in fertility or a slow decline for example south koreas 1965 cbr was 36 below the population mean of 45 in 1984 the cbr dropped to 20 even further below the population mean of 39 a dramatic absolute and relative fertility decline south korea also had the highest rate of economic growth and its increase in family planning program effort was dramatic from no measurable effect in 1972 to the nation with the highest fpe score in 1982 in addition the level of multinational penetration was modest in conclusion this research supports the view that intranational economic phenomena such as rate of economic growth and concerted fpes contribute significantly to fertility decline on the other hand multinational corporate penetration distorts development and impedes fertility reduction

status in the world system income inequality and economic growth this paper addresses recent challenges to fundamental world system research findings by using methods and measures suggested by critics of these findings reanalysis of income and economic growth data using a categorical indicator of world system status derived from snyder and kick suggests that dependency does increase income inequality and retard per capita economic growth net of initial development this offers renewed support for world system theory by rebutting weede s criticism of rubinson and jackman s criticism of snyder and kick

income inequality regime repressiveness and political violence death rate from political violence is postulated to vary cross nationally as a positively accelerated time lagged function of income inequality and as a nonmonotonic inverted u function of regime repressiveness the former hypothesis is consistent with approaches to the explanation of collective political violence that emphasize the general concept of discontent or more specifically relative deprivation the latter hypothesis is consistent with a political process version of the resource mobilization approach in the context of a multivariate model estimated across two decades 1958 67 and 1968 77 support is found for the inequality hypothesis support also is foundfor the regime repressiveness hypothesis in the decade 1968 77 for which the index of regime repressiveness is available the u curve effect of regime repressiveness appears to have stronger impact on variation in rates of deadly political violence than the positively accelerated effect of income inequality

manufacturing and economic growth in the united states kaldor s growth laws are applied to the post world war ii united states each variable employed in the time series analysis is smoothed with a moving average this procedure successfully mitigates the effects of short term cyclical changes and emphasizes long term economic growth indicate that kaldor s laws are compatible with the economic growth of united states

structural determinants of peripheral urbanization the effects of international dependence this paper examines the extent and mechanisms by which international economic dependence affects urbanization in peripheral countries between 1950 and 1970 using panel regression analyses qnd structural equation models on a sample of37 countries investment dependence is found to have a lagged positive effect on urbanization in 1970 the data suggest that investment dependence stimulates growth in the tertiary and informal sectors while inhibiting growth in the industrial labor sector this restructuring of the urban labor force generates increased levels of overurbanization in peripheral countries finally it is argued that dependency theory provides a more adequate framework for understanding urbanization in peripheral countries than modernization theory

urbanization and underdevelopment a global study of modernization urban bias and economic dependency the causes and effects of 3rd world urbanization have been addressed in theories of modernization urban bias and economic dependency but no single cross national study has tested the arguments advanced by all 3 theories this paper uses panel regression analysis to assess the validity of the 3 perspectives in 61 underdeveloped countries between 1960 and 1980 the modernization theory asserts that industrial employment attracts people to urban areas where they work in modern sector employment that facilitates national economic expansion the urban bias theory posits that the disparity in welfare between country and city increases rural to urban migration and thereby expands both urbanization and service informal employment dependency and world system arguments assert that foreign investment promotes both urbanization and service informal labor with foreign investment in agriculture pushing farmers townward and foreign investment in urban manufacturing pulling them there results suggest that underdeveloped nations are experiencing a gradual transition from an agrarian to a service and informal economy a transformation that impedes economic expansion unfavorable agricultural conditions alone will not push rural citizens to urban areas 2 theories help explain the relationship between relatives urbanization and economic growth if future studies of urbanization and underdevelopment are going to be useful then they must transcend current theoretical and ideological particularism

electoral motives and the subnational allocation of foreign aid in sub saharan africa abstract this paper examines how electoral motives shape the subnational allocation of foreign aid commitments by employing a newly constructed geocoded dataset for 14 sub saharan african countries over the period 2000 2012 our results provide strong evidence of a core voter strategy african leaders diverting chinese aid towards regions with a high concentration of political supporters however no evidence of such preferential treatment is found for world bank aid suggesting that aid from traditional donors is less vulnerable to political manipulation our results also reveal that checks and balances in recipient countries are an important mediating factor of aid misallocation while copartisan regions receive larger amounts of chinese aid in environments with weak checks and balances these effects disappear when stronger checks and balances are in place this paper also offers case study evidence from ghana exploiting the 2009 regime change in ghana and using a difference in differences framework we provide further support of copartisan targeting and confirm that chinese aid is more manipulable than world bank aid in this respect

the long term effects of foreign investment dependence on economic growth 1940 1990 does dependence of a national economy on foreign investment promote economic growth or underdevelopment the recent exchanges between glenn firebaugh and william j dixon and terry boswell suggest the contentious nature of this debate this study analyzes models similar to those tested in previous research but with data from earlier time points to examine the long term effects of foreign capital penetration accumulated stocks of foreign capital gdp in 1938 have a short term five year positive effect on economic growth followed by a 20 year lagged negative effect on economic growth beginning in 1960 and lasting at least 30 years similar effects are found using a second indicator of foreign investment dependence debits on investment income for the 1950 90 period the international migration of capital has facilitated development of the world s natural resources and has been instrumental in transmitting the direct effects of the industrial revolution from area to area thereby it has helped to increase

the difficult transition from clientelism to citizenship lessons from mexico author s fox jonathan a abstract electoral competition is necessary but not sufficient for the consolidation of democratic regimes not all elections are free and fair nor do they necessarily lead to actual civilian rule or respect for human rights if there is more to democracy than elections then there is more to democratization than the transition to elections but in spite of the rich literature on the emergence of electoral competition the dynamics of political transitions toward respect for other fundamental democratic rights is still not well understood political democracy is defined here in classic procedural terms free and fair electoral contestation for governing offices based on universal suffrage guaranteed freedoms of association and expression accountability through the rule of law and civilian control of the military although analyses of democratization typically acknowledge that these are all necessary criteria most examine only electoral competition this study however develops a framework for explaining progress toward another necessary condition for democratization respect for associational autonomy which allows citizens to organize in defense of their own interests and identities without fear of external intervention or punishment

economic growth and kaldor s law the case of turkey 1925 78 in this paper kaldor s enine of growth hypothesis is examined and its validity is tested forr the turkish economy the results obtained regardless of the specification and estimation techniques used consistently support the hypothesis

income inequality development and dependence a reconsideration we reconsider the role of foreign investment in income inequality in light of recent critiques that question the results of quantitative cross national research on foreign capital penetration we analyze an unbalanced cross national data set in which countries contribute different numbers of observations with a maximum of 88 countries and 488 observations dated from 1967 to 1994 random effects regression models that control for unmeasured country heterogeneity are used to investigate effects of foreign capital penetration on inequality measured as the gini coefficient against the background of an internal developmental model of inequality we adapt firebaugh s 1992 1996 critique of the literature on the effect of foreign investment on economic growth to the study of income inequality and find that the stock of foreign direct investment has an effect on inequality that is independent of the mechanisms identified by firebaugh we explore tsai s 1995 claim that the effect of foreign capital penetration is spurious and find that foreign stock has a significant positive effect on inequality net of region specific differences an alternative interpretation of the findings of the foreign investment inequality literature is discussed in light of the discovery of an inverted u shaped relationship between income inequality and foreign investment stock per capita we conclude that thinking on the relationship between income inequality and investment dependence should be revised in light of an investment development path relating the inflow and outflow of foreign capital to economic development

the importance of manufacturing in economic development has this changed summary manufacturing has traditionally played a key role in the economic development of developing countries in recent years it has been argued that the importance of manufacturing has diminished over the last 20 25 years resulting in premature deindustrialization or non industrialization in developing countries this study explores whether the low levels of industrialization in developing countries are attributable to long term changes in opportunities available to the sector around the globe the study s findings show that the manufacturing sector s value added and employment contribution to world gdp and employment respectively have not changed significantly since 1970 the declining manufacturing value added and manufacturing employment share in many developing countries has not been caused by changes in the sector s development potential but has instead resulted from a shift of manufacturing activities to a relatively small number of populous countries thus resulting in a concentration of manufacturing activities in specific developing countries as was the case in the last millennium industrialization has continued to play a key role in the growth of developing countries which have sustained rapid and long term growth for the last 25 years achieving economic development by following the path of industrialization will likely remain important for low income countries because they are able to take advantage of their backwardness relative to those countries which have already experienced rapid industrialization with a disproportionately large share of manufacturing activities and could soon enter a mature stage of industrialization

the political effects of agricultural subsidies in africa evidence from malawi across sub saharan africa agricultural subsidy programs have again become a common strategy for combatting rural poverty increasing agricultural production and reducing food insecurity despite a large literature examining subsidies effects on output and welfare little is known about their political effects this paper examines malawi s agricultural input subsidy programme one of the largest and most expensive programs implemented which was launched by the government in 2005 we examine whether the incumbent party the democratic progressive party headed by president bingu wa mutharika benefited from malawi s subsidy program by examining a longitudinal dataset of 1 846 rural malawians interviewed in 2008 and again in 2010 the individual level data show no evidence that the subsidy program was targeted to mutharika s co ethnics or co partisans our analysis further demonstrates that the subsidy program increased support for the incumbent party these results suggest that even when parties are unable or unwilling to target distributional programs at the local level they may nonetheless derive political benefits as anti poverty programs including agricultural subsidies to small scale farmers become increasingly common across the continent our results suggest that they may help to explain patterns of party affiliation and vote choice particularly where traditional patterns of partisan affiliation related to ethnic or regional identities weaken

urban bias dependence and economic stagnation in noncore nations this paper contributes to the growing body of research that assesses the effects of patterns of urbanization on economic growth in less developed countries ldcs regression analysis of data for 65 80 nations including analyses of influential cases suggests that both urban bias and dependency have independent simultaneous and negative effects on economic growth further analyses reveal a strong positive relationship between dependency and urban bias these findings show that understanding urbanization and development in the third world requires the consideration of both external international and internal intranational factors and a combination of the insights gained from dependency world system human ecology and modernization theories

boon or bane reassessing the productivity of foreign direct investment we assess the effects of foreign and domestic capital on economic growth using the latest data and better models of economic growth than those previously used we explicitly consider the role of human capital in the process of economic development we find no evidence that foreign direct investment harms the economic prospects of developing countries the flow of foreign capital from 1980 to 1991 spurred growth in gross domestic product per capita while the level of foreign stock or foreign penetration had no discernible effect indeed new foreign investment was more productive dollar for dollar than was capital from domestic sources previous suggestions that foreign investment flows are less beneficial than domestic ones were based on a misinterpretation moreover foreign direct investment stimulates investment from domestic sources consequently developing countries have no reason to eschew foreign capital as dependency theorists urge

dissatisfied democrats or retrospective voters economic hardship political institutions and voting behavior in latin america this article examines recent trends in latin american voting behavior and casts them in terms of sincere economic and strategic electoral concerns it argues that thanks to years of economic adversity latin americans have developed long sophisticated economic memories although this has resulted in rising frustration with democratic government according to recent opinion polls it has not always led voters to punish all parties responsible for hardship at election time a panel study of the region s presidential systems demonstrates that citizens punish incumbents by voting for established nonincumbents when electoral laws reduce opportunities available to small parties in the systems even if nonincumbents have also been blamed for hard economic times more permissive electoral systems in contrast encourage citizens to reject all parties responsible for economic decline the analysis demonstrates how economic and electoral concerns interact to affect voting behavior political accountability an

party system competition and private sector development in africa abstractdemocratic transitions by many african countries have generated much analysis of the organisational features of political parties or their role in voter mobilisation during elections yet scholars have largely overlooked how parties negotiate economic policymaking or interact with the private sector in countries that are incipient democracies and emerging markets this article argues that the stability or fragmentation of the party system affects patterns of private sector development and shapes linkages between the state business and labour it compares mozambique and zambia to demonstrate how variations in party system characteristics influence the relationship between economic and political interests

the political economy of fertilizer subsidy programs in africa evidence from zambia fertilizer subsidy programs have re emerged as popular policy tools in sub saharan africa despite a burgeoning body of literature on program impacts the political economy of the programs remains poorly understood in particular there is a dearth of empirical evidence to support or refute the conventional wisdoms that governments systematically target subsidized inputs to certain areas based on past voting patterns and that fertilizer subsidies win votes this article discusses the theoretical links between government targeting of subsidized fertilizer and voter behavior then uses panel data from zambia to empirically test these conventional wisdoms results suggest that zambia s movement for multi party democracy governments targeted more subsidized fertilizer to households in areas where it had strong support in the previous presidential election however contrary to conventional wisdom marginal changes in the scale or coverage of the fertilizer subsidy program had no statistically significant effect on the share or number of votes won by incumbent presidents

growth effects of foreign and domestic investment over tha past few years numerous studies in sociology have concluded that foreign investment harms poor nations these studies have focused on the coefficient for foreign capital stock controlling for flow new investment and defying logic have inferred that a negative coefficient for stock reflects dependency effects that retard economic growth since capital stock is the denominator for investment rate the greater the stock the lower the investment rate for a given level of new investment hence the negative coefficient for capital stock found in dependency studies indicates a beneficial investment effect not a harmful effect this point is demonstrated by reanalysis of the data used in dependency studies in these data foreign investment spurs growth earlier analysts have concluded otherwise only because their conclusions have belied their findings

economic conditions and incumbent support in africa s new democracies evidence from zambia in this article the authors investigate the effects of economic conditions on support for an incumbent regime in a new african democracy drawing on two unique data sources from zambia the results of a 1 200 respondent postelection survey and a pair of 10 000 household poverty surveys conducted in the same years as that country s first two posttransition general elections the authors find evidence that declining economic conditions coincide with the withdrawal of support for the incumbent president although the effects of changing economic conditions are relatively small compared to noneconomic determinants of the vote such as ethnic affiliation and urban rural location the authors also find that to the extent that voters respond to declining economic conditions they do so via withdrawal from the electoral process rather than via support for the opposition the findings suggest that african electorates are at least modestly responsive to economic trends but that noneconomic motivations still predomin

severed linkages distorted accountability in uneven regimes though a general consensus exists regarding the significance of perceived performance in voters evaluations of incumbent governments much of the research underlying this consensus has been carrie

food security in less developed countries 1970 to 1990 despite a global food surplus almost half of the worlds less developed countries suffer significant problems concerning food most social science and policy discussions of food security make the food availability assumption that increased food supply is the key to reducing hunger critics argue however that increased food supply has little impact on hunger and that the primary culprits are entrenched inequality and militarism a lagged panel analysis of food supply and child hunger rates 1970 90 shows that the food supply has only modest effects on child hunger rates and that food supply is structurally rooted in development processes domestic investment urban bias foreign capital penetration while child hunger is politically based in arms imports internal violence and political democratization population pressure tapped by increased age dependency undermines both the supply of food and the populations access to it and culturally dualism magnifies the effects of population pressure on child hunger the effects of economic growth trickle down to affect food both supply and child hunger and economic growth is also positively correlated with political democratization suggesting there is no short term trade off between growth democratization and social equity authors

pork barrel politics and electoral returns at the local level does the targeted spending of public resources provide electoral benefits for incumbents despite the attention of scholars to that question the empirical results are mixed thus far the present paper supplies insights into the electoral benefits of discretionary funding on local elections i study the consequences of pork barrel politics in 7355 competitive mayoral elections in slovakia between 2006 and 2018 finding that more grants from the central government enhance the likelihood of mayors winning reelection the same advantage applies to mayors whose municipalities receive grants in local election years the effects of the number of grants obtained as well as the timing of their distribution are however moderated by municipal population more specifically a larger number of grants and resources obtained near the end of the mayoral term provides electoral benefits only to small town mayors but give no advantage to the mayors of larger urban areas