interest rates inflation and the aggregate consumption function this paper reports on an empirical study of the effects of interest rates and inflation on aggregate consumption in the united states empirical evidence based on quarterly u s data from the postwar period is first presented in support of the hypothesis that the real rate of interest varies inversely with the rate of inflation at least in the short run regression estimates of an aggregate consumption function for the united states also based on quarterly data from the postwar period are then presented these estimates indicate that the propensity to consume varies inversely with interest rates and directly with the rate of inflation

the measurement and trend of inequality comment in a recent article in this review morton paglin proposes a measure of concentration which he claims will correct the gini ratio for overstatement in populations where each individual may be expected to vary his income or wealth over his life cycle the paglin measure suggests that the gini ratio overstates income concentration in the united states by a third and does not reveal a 23 percent decline in concentration which has occurred between 1947 and 1972 these results are based on an improper decomposition of the gini ratio in this note i decompose the gini ratio to derive the paglin measure it is shown to correct for neither demographic nor life cycle income effects and to understate intracohort income or wealth inequality if properly normalized the paglin measure shows that the gini overstates u s income concentration by 7 percent or less and indicates a decline in u s interfamily income concentration of less than 12 percent four percentage points of this decline are the result of demographic change while less than 7 points comparable to the 5 percent decline of the gini are the result of decreased income concentration within cohorts of family heads decomposition further reveals major changes in the division of income among cohorts and in concentration of income within cohorts these changes compensate each other in the paglin measure the use of which as a measure of income or wealth concentration is not recommended the gini concentration ratio

estimating permanent income and wealth of the us farm households farm households are unique in the way they derive income when compared to nonfarm households farm operators and spouses have dual income sources from farm and off farm activities further farm households on an average possess higher wealth than nonfarm households this article estimates permanent income for the us farm households using data from a large national farm level survey the estimated income is then used to identify the determinants of wealth accumulation by the us farm households results confirm that permanent income is closely related to age of the operator education occupation farm size location and number of earners in the household along with age permanent income is a significant determinant of household wealth it was also found that the wealth income curve is nonlinear upward sloping and convex hausman s specification test indicates that variations in farm household wealth is better explained by estimated permanent income than observed total household income off farm income

labour supply effects of unemployment insurance benefits data from the 1976 wave of the panel study of income dynamics are employed to study the effect of unemployment insurance ui benefits on weeks worked ols regressions to model labour supply behaviour are estimated for both recipients and nonrecipients of ui benefits we find some inteesting differences between the labour supply behaviour of ui recipients and nonrecipients

precautionary savings and self selection evidence from the german reunification experiment in the absence of complete insurance expected future income shocks lead prudent individuals to build up precautionary savings in order to avoid wide fluctuations in the consumption path the reaction of savings to expected future shocks is stronger the more risk averse an individual is risk aversion might influence not only the savings behavior of an individual facing a stochastic income path but it can also affect occupational choice in the first place in particular risk averse individuals might choose occupations that are associated with less risky income paths while less risk averse individuals might prefer occupations with higher income risk assessing the importance of self selection of individuals into occupations according to their risk aversion is difficult since risk aversion is usually unobserved yet failing to control for unobserved risk aversion in regressions of wealth on measures of labor income risk will lead to a bias if selfselection takes place since measures of labor income risk will be negatively correlated with the error term that is capturing the unobserved risk aversion this could lead to a rejection of the theory of precautionary savings even if individuals act according to the theory

bootstrapping the data envelopment analysis malmquist productivity index this paper presents a bootstrap approach to calculate confidence intervals for firm specific malmquist productivity indices obtained from data envelopment analysis dea models the bootstrap is easily implemented and allows identification of production units that have significant productivity changes an application using data from swedish eye care departments is included we find that 40 of departments have significant progress in productivity whereas only 10 of the departments have a significant regress in productivity this differs from the original results where about half the sample have estimates of progress and the other half have estimates of regress in productivity

us federal redistributive income policies the purpose of this paper is to present a statiscial model of inequality that allows us to analyse simultaneously the impact of several major redistributive expenditure policies as well as analysing the impact of income taxation on inequality the paper includes multivariate exogeeity tests to determine whether the policies have caused the observed income distribution or if there is feedback i e inequality in the distribution has lead to enhanced or diminished redistributive policies the direction of causality for these policies has not to ourr knowledge been previously examined this paper examines the usual redistributive vehicles of transfer payments social security medicare and medicaid as well as analysing the impact of the personal income tax system on inequality using time series analysis we can allow for lagged effects of these policies as well as current period effects this lagged effects specification may be sugggestive of behavioural responses to policy changes

price search and spatial competition abstract in this paper we study a model where two spatially scattered sellers face a population of consumers dispersed over a given geographical area they have to incur a transaction cost to place their purchase order moreover these consumers have imperfect knowledge of prices but obtain full information about prices at the first shop they solicit we study price competition between these firms the main outcomes of our analysis are as follows first we show that whenever a price equilibrium exists for given locations of firms it will necessarily display price dispersion second we study location configurations which ensure the existence of a price equilibrium furthermore we show that when it exists a price equilibrium is unique finally we analyze firms revenues when merchants anticipate the consequences of their locational choice on subsequent price competition then we find that there is an incentive for a firm to get as close as possible to its competitor

precautionary wealth accumulation evidence from canadian microdata this paper estimates the effect of labour income uncertainty on wealth accumulation using two data sources wealth information is obtained from the master files of the new canadian survey of financial security 1999 sfs labour income risk proxies are constucted by industry using the canadian survey of labour and income dynamics slid between 1996 and 2001 the empirical results suggest the presence of a strong precautionary saving motive among canadian households for broad definitions of wealth furthermore consistent with the buffer stock saving model the level of precautionary funds significantly increases when households face liquidity constraints ce texte calcule l effet de l incertitude du revenu de travail sur l accumulation de la richesse a l aide de deux sources de donnees les donnees sur la richesse sont tirees des resultats de l enquete sur la securite financiere esf de 1999 les coefficients de risque attaches aux diverses industries sont developpes a partir des resultats de l enquete sur la dynamique du travail et du revenu edtr entre 1996 et 2001 les resultats empiriques suggerent la presence d une forte motivation des menages canadiens aepargner aux fins de precaution si l on accepte des definitions assez comprehensives de la richesse de plus d une maniere qui correspond au modele d epargne pour stockage tampon le niveau des fonds aux fins de precaution s accroit de maniere significative a proportion que les menages font face a des contraintes de liquidite

means testing versus universal provision in poverty alleviation programs this paper contrasts the use of means tested and universal schemes in the alleviation of poverty using a class of poverty measures the authors illustrate the trade off from the fact that means testing is costly to both the government and the claimant while universal provision entails a leakage to the nonpoor the paper provides numerical as well as analytical results copyright 1990 by the london school of economics and political science

does the welfare state induce risk taking abstract in cross national data on individual and country level characteristics the variance of log annual income is shown to correlate positively with indicators of redistribution the database comes from the panel comparability paco project which provides uniquely comparable cross national panel data including both eastern and western europe and the us a random effects permanent income regression is used to estimate income variance the variance estimates are then regressed on individual and country characteristics the results indicate robustly that various measures of risk are higher in countries with a higher share of social spending in gdp the evidence can be interpreted as support for the argument that the welfare state encourages risk taking and thereby economic growth

the effects of public pensions on private wealth evidence on the german savings puzzle based on german panel data between 1984 and 1999 we test for the interaction of social security benefits and private wealth formation in a simple life cylce model benefits from public pension systems should displace equal amounts of private retirement accumulation our estimate for the offset effect corrected for several possible measurement biases is much lower however than expected from pure life cycle considerations and less than comparable estimates for the us and the uk this result thus supports other evidence on a particular german savings puzzle which might be due to market imperfections and or bounded rational behaviour

information costs intermediation and equilibrium price mainly for the sake of simplicity more important is the realization that markets do indeed differ significantly in the ways consumers can obtain information in some markets there are brokers test magazines leasing companies etc which serve to alleviate the information problem facing the buyers in other markets word of mouth recommendations and advertising are the only sources of information available it seems reasonable to suppose that the presence of informational intermediaries has some effect on market structure and performance it is thus of interest to analyse the structural differences that are responsible for the fact that certain types of intermediaries can be observed in some markets but not in others in this paper we develop a model that determines endogenously the type of information available to the consumers the exercise is of interest because it constitutes an attempt to determine market structure endogenously as a function of more fundamental underlying factors the exercise is also quite difficult because it involves the comparison of different regimes in this case the comparison of situations with and without informational intermediaries comparisons of regimes are notoriously difficult to make in explicit models we are able to do so here largely because we use a sufficiently simple model based on quite restrictive assumptions we hope the resulting loss in terms of generality is more than compensated for by the gain in terms of computational ease

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency in their comment subhash c ray and evangelia desli 1997 hereafter rd point out that the specification of the decomposition of the malmquist productivity index used by fare et al 1994 hereafter fgnz is not unique and propose and compute an alternative specification of that decomposition we will discuss additional decompositions at the end of this note but proceed here by comparing the rd decomposition with fgnz based on both conceptual and computational grounds rd provide a discussion of the overall malmquist productivity index including the important issue of when this index is equivalent to the traditional notion of total factor productivity tfp namely under the condition that the reference technology be consistent with constant returns to scale crs as they point out this will yield a measure of tfp even if the true underlying technology is not crs for example both rd and fgnz use the crs reference technology to compute overall malmquist productivity one of the key issues raised is the role of the underlying scale properties of the benchmark technologies used to define and compute both productivity and its components in particular two reference technologies are employed in both rd and fgnz what we refer to as crs and variable returns to scale vrs technologies by construction these technologies are nested the crs technology contains the vrs technology as in figure 1 in rd this nestedness provides the logical basis for our decomposition at a very intuitive level we would argue that these two benchmarks can be used to provide bounds on the underlying true but unknown technology 2 intuitively we see the vrs technology providing a type of convex inner approximation whereas the crs technology provides a type of convex outer approximation thus these two technologies provide alternative benchmarks they do not require that the data satisfy either crs or vrs another possible intuitive interpretation is that the crs captures a perhaps hypothetical long run and the vrs approximates the short run as a reference technology the crs technology has some very useful features for example it captures the notion of maximal

behavioral responses to risk in rural china does risk perpetuate poverty in a credit constrained economy jalan and ravallion study portfolio and other behavioral responses to measured risk using household panel data for rural china one quarter of wealth is held in unproductive liquid forms but only a small share of this appears to be a precaution against income risk the authors estimate that eliminating income risk would reduce the share of wealth held in liquid form by less than 1 percentage point moreover that effect is confined largely to middle income groups high income households do not it seems need to hold unproductive cautionary wealth and the poor probably cannot afford to do so the authors find no evidence that income risk discourages schooling but risk does inhibit the out migration of labor generally the results provide only limited support for the idea that uninsured risks promote unproductive portfolio behavior in this setting there is such an effect but it is small in magnitude and cannot be deemed an important cause of poverty

precautionary savings a panel study theoretical literature shows that income uncertainty boosts saving yet empirical work is incomplete i test for the precautionary motive for saving using panel data knowing this motive s size is important for gauging the responsiveness of saving to government programs that reduce uncertainty and for comparison to other motives such as bequests most empirical studies of precautionary saving use either aggregate time series or cross sectional data which cannot capture the effects of individual income uncertainty i derive measures of total permanent and transitory income uncertainty from panel data the national longitudinal survey and find a strong precautionary motive a doubling of uncertainty increases the ratio of wealth to permanent income by 29

precautionary savings and the self employed this work focuses on the impact of uncertainty on savings under bequest form specifically we estimate whether and to what extent income variability does have an effect on post mortem savings we approximate the post mortem savings with the closest dedicated savings which is savings in term insurance a lump sum inherited at the death of the subscriber furthermore we test whether the intensity of the income variance or the riskiness of the job type such as self employment matters more in the choice our results show that self employment status is one of the most relevant variables affecting term insurance ownership

comparing malmquist and hicks moorsteen productivity indices exploring the impact of unbalanced vs balanced panel data abstract we explore the effect of balancing unbalanced panel data when estimating primal productivity indices using non parametric frontier estimators first we list a series of pseudo solutions aimed at making an unbalanced panel balanced then we discuss some intermediate solutions e g balancing 2 years by 2 years furthermore we link this problem with a variety of literatures on infeasibilities statistical inference of non parametric frontier estimators and the index theory literature focusing on the dynamics of entry and exit in industries we then empirically illustrate these issues comparing both malmquist and hicks moorsteen productivity indices on two data sets in particular we test for the differences in distribution when comparing balanced and unbalanced results for a given index and when comparing malmquist and hicks moorsteen productivity indices for a given type of data set the latter tests are crucial in answering the question to which extent the malmquist index can approximate the hicks moorsteen index that has a total factor productivity tfp interpretation finally we draw up a list of remaining issues that could benefit from further exploration

a measure of horizontal inequity politicians academicians and the general public alike have perceived that the status quo tax and transfer legislation creates inequities among living units tax laws create numerous situations in which living units with seemingly equal abilities to pay are taxed quite different amounts state by state differences in welfare eligibility rules benefit schedules and administrative procedures the general unavailability of cash welfare to childless nonaged healthy couples and single individuals and other features of transfer programs similarly provide vastly different levels of income support to units with equal needs advocates of major tax and welfare reform have marshalled such evidence into a central argument in favor of their proposals while there is wide agreement that the process of redistributing incomes abounds with inequities there have been few attempts to quantify their extent 2 this paper develops a measure of horizontal inequity and illustrates its use section ii discusses the concept of horizontal equity then builds upon familiar lorenz curve gini coefficient analysis to derive the inequity index the third part considers some problems of implementing the measure and illustrates it section iv provides a short conclusion

how income transfer programs affect work savings and the income distribution a critical review for helpful comments on earlier drafts we thank without implicating moses abramovitz yves balcer john bishop alan blinder richard burkhauser michael darby irwin garfinkel alan gustman daniel hamermesh martin holmer george jakubson robert lampman paul menchik robert moffitt michael murray joseph quinn timothy smeeding eugene smolensky barbara wolfe and two anonymous referees

socio economic inequality in ill health amongst the elderly should one use current or permanent income in belgium income related inequality in ill health among the 65 is present but reduces significantly as soon as one restricts the analysis to the 65 the main goal of this paper is to check whether these findings based on current income are robust to the income concept used the analysis is repeated using estimates of permanent income measured inequality among the 65 remains very limited suggesting that the observed findings are not heavily dependent upon the income concept finally i suggest an explanation for the observed difference in inequality between the 65 and the 65 i argue that this difference is likely to be correlated with differences across income groups of 1 sample attrition and 2 mortality

the role of intergenerational transfers and life cycle saving in the accumulation of wealth he purpose of this paper is to review what economists know at present about the following question how large a portion of the existing wealth is the result of a bequest motive that is of accumulation for the specific purpose of leaving bequests i will also endeavor to clarify why an answer to this question is of interest in the early keynesian period when the study of national saving first attracted wide interest relatively little attention was paid to what led people to save though it was generally understood that the main systematic reason was to leave bequests j m keynes in the famous chapter 9 of the general theory of employment interest and money 1936 had listed seven distinct motives for saving besides the leaving of bequests but five of these which include to increase one s future income or to insure one s independence and power implied that all or nearly all the accumulation would finally wind up as bequeathed wealth this in turn meant that most private wealth originated through bequests that is it either had been received through bequests or was destined to be bequeathed and indeed how else could society accumulate wealth however keynes 1936 p 107 also mentioned two further motives precaution that is to build up a reserve against unforeseen contingencies and foresight that is to provide for an anticipated future relation between the income and the needs of the individual or his family different from that which exists in the present as for example in relation to old age family education or the maintenance of dependents these motives in contrast to most of the previous ones have the

precautionary saving and subjective earnings variance abstract in this paper i examine a model of precautionary saving and i show that the fact that people may insure against income risk makes it difficult to evaluate the extent of precautionary accumulation by simply looking at the relationship between wealth and earnings variance i also argue that occupations may represent a bad proxy for income risk

cash welfare as a consumption smoothing mechanism for divorced mothers abstract while there has been considerable research on the disincentive effects of cash welfare under the aid to families with dependent children afdc program there is little evidence on the benefits of the program for single mothers and their children one potential benefit of this program is that it provides short run consumption insurance for women at the point that they become single mothers this is only true however to the extent that the program is not crowding out other sources of support such as own savings labor supply or transfers from others i assess the importance of this insurance mechanism by measuring the extent to which afdc smooths the consumption of women who transition to single motherhood through marital dissolution i use longitudinal data on family structure and consumption expenditures on food and housing from the panel study of income dynamics psid matched to information on the welfare benefits available in each state and year over the 1968 1985 period i find that raising potential benefits by one dollar raises the food and housing consumption of women who get divorced and their families by 28 cents this estimate implies that for each dollar of afdc received by this population their consumption of these categories of goods rises by up to 51 cents this is roughly the share of food and housing in the consumption bundle of divorced mothers and their families suggesting little crowdout of other sources of support

labor supply response to welfare programs a dynamic analysis previous static analyses of the work disincentive effects of welfare programs are extended to a dynamic context using a sample of continuous longitudinal labor market histories estimates are derived for welfare nonwelfare differences in labor market flows among the states of employment unemployment and nonparticipation the estimates are used to identify the main sources of the lower employment and labor force participation rates and higher unemployment rate of welfare recipients the findings indicate that welfare programs have substantial effects on virtually every labor market transition examined but that the primary source of the static work disincentive effect is slower entry into employment

does unemployment compensation affect unemployment duration abstract we use a flexible hazard rate model with unrestricted spell duration and calendar timeeffects to analyse a dataset including all norwegian unemployment spells during the1990 s the dataset provides a unique access to conditionally independent variation inunemployment compensation we find that a marginal increase in compensation re duces the escape rate from unemployment significantly irrespective of business cycleconditions and spell duration the escape rate rises sharply in the months just prior tobenefit exhaustion while men are more responsive than women with respect to mar ginal changes in compensation women are most responsive with respect to benefitexhaustion keywords unemployment spells business cycles unemployment compensation non parametric duration analysis jel classification c41 j64 the ragnar frisch centre for economic research oslo we wish to thank the re search council of norway for financial support and christian brinck harald goldstein costas meghir espen moen steinar strom rolf aaberge and three anonomyous referees for helpful comments cor respondence to knut roed the ragnar frisch centre for economic research gaustadalleen 21 0349oslo norway e mail knut roed frisch uio no

commitment risk and consumption do birds of a feather have bigger nests abstract consumption commitments goods like housing for which adjustment is costly change the relationship between risk and consumption commitment provides a motive to reduce consumption when possible future losses are too small to warrant adjustment but not when losses are large enough that adjustment would be worthwhile this implies conditions under which mean preserving increases in risk can increase housing consumption our empirical evidence exploits the interaction of these conditions with a novel proxy for unemployment risk couples sharing an occupation consistent with our model same occupation couples consume more housing only when adjustment costs are high and potential losses are sufficiently large

pension wealth and household savings tests of robustness abstract a substantial literature exists on the impact of pension schemes both public and private on the level of household saving yet there is no clear consensus on the impact of pensions on private saving in this paper we show how beliefs about this displacement effect are modified by prior beliefs both about variables which might be relevant in an equation for private savings and about the magnitude of the displacement effect using data for 8279 canadian households and estimates of pension wealth both private and social security which we construct for each household in the sample the estimated displacement effects are found to be relatively robust with respect to both types of prior belief

intergenerational transfers and savings in recent years the role of intergenerational transfers in the process of wealth accumulation has been the subject of substantial empirical and theoretical analysis the key question stimulating this research is what is the main explanation for savings is it primarily accumulation for retirement as claimed by albert ando richard brumberg and franco modigliani in their celebrated life cycle model of savings is it primarily intentional accumulation for intergenerational transfers or is it primarily precautionary savings much of which may be bequeathed because of imperfections in annuity markets this paper examines a range of findings on the importance of intergenerational transfers the strong conclusion that emerges from this evidence is that intergenerational transfers play a very important if not a key role in aggregate wealth accumulation while intergenerational transfers figure very large in savings the precise motivation for such transfers is unclear intergenerational altruism might appear the most likely candidate but at least sane stylized facts such as the equal allocation of bequests among children are strongly at adds with the altruism model other explanations involving imperfect insurance arrangements or payments for child services do not appear capable of explaining the substantial amounts of transfers actually observed sorting cut the relative contributions of different models to intergenerational transfers and the precise role of intergenerational transfers in the process of wealth accumulation remains an intriguing and exciting enterprise this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

precautionary saving a review of the empirical literature standard macroeconomic models show that uncertainty plays a significant role in consumption and saving decisions under rather mild conditions namely the convexity of the marginal utility of consumption increased uncertainty generates a positive extra saving the so called precautionary saving although this hypothesis has been tested by a large number of authors both at macro and micro level the empirical results are not conclusive and the main conclusion than can be drawn is that there is neither consensus on the intensity of that motive for saving nor on the most appropriate measure of uncertainty this paper provides a comprehensive review of the empirical literature discussing the main controversial issues and the different approaches followed by the studies addressing empirically the test of precautionary saving

female labor supply with a discontinuous nonconvex budget constraint incorporation of a part time full time wage differential this paper incorporates the well documented part time full time wage differential into an empirical labor supply model with both a heterogeneity and a random error term and estimates that model fo

productivity measurement in radial dea models with a single constant input abstract we consider productivity measurement based on radial dea models with a single constant input we show that in this case the malmquist and the hicks moorsteen productivity indices coincide and are multiplicatively complete the choice of orientation of the malmquist index for the measurement of productivity change does not matter and there is a unique decomposition of productivity change containing two independent sources namely technical efficiency change and technical change technical change decomposes in an infinite number of ways into a radial magnitude effect and an output bias effect we also show that the aggregate productivity index is given by the geometric mean between any two periods of the simple arithmetic averages of the individual contemporaneous and mixed period distance functions

a cost malmquist productivity index this paper develops a productivity index applicable when producers are cost minimisers and input prices are known the index is inspired by the malmquist index as extended to productivity measurement the index developed here is defined in terms of input cost rather than input quantity distance functions hence productivity change is decomposed into overall efficiency and cost technical change furthermore overall efficiency change is decomposed into technical and allocative efficiency change and cost technical change into a part capturing shifts of input quantities and shifts of relative input prices these decompositions provide a clearer picture of the root sources of productivity change they are illustrated here in a sample of hospitals results are computed using non parametric mathematical programming 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

in kind transfers cash grants and the supply of labour abstract this paper corrects the notion that somehow benefits given in kind interfere less with the work leisure choice than cash grants of equivalent monetary value in a simple model the analysis proves that the true effect depends on the extent of the in kind transfer and the substitutability of the good in question with leisure

cyclical risk aversion precautionary saving and monetary policy this paper analyzes the conduct of monetary policy in an environment in which cyclical swings in risk appetite aect households propensity to save it uses a new keynesian model featuring external habit formation to show that taking note of precautionary saving motives justi es an accommodative policy bias in the face of persistent adverse disturbances equally policy should be more restrictive that is lean against the wind following positive shocks under su ciently persistent habits it is in fact optimal to increase interest rates following a rise

precautionary saving by young immigrants and young natives 1 introduction and literature review foreign born population accounted for approximately 9 of the total population residing in the united states by the mid 1990s and including their children they were responsible for approximately 51 of the u s population growth martin 1995 these dramatic changes in the u s population have prompted much economic research on the immigrant population but despite the great deal of attention that has been paid to the labor market progress of immigrants little is known about their saving and wealth accumulation patterns 1 many studies requiring information on the saving behavior of immigrants simply assume that immigrant savings parallel that of natives macurdy nechyba and bhattacharya 1998 however it may be the case that immigrants behave differently have different motives different opportunities and different needs with respect to saving and wealth accumulation vis a vis natives most of the limited literature on the saving behavior of immigrants is inspired by european and middle eastern guest worker migration and consequently is geared to the behavior of temporary migrants 2 three papers that focus on the saving behavior of immigrants in general are the papers by galor and stark 1990 carroll rhee and rhee 1994 and dustmann 1997 galor and stark note that immigrants and natives differ from one another in their migration probabilities because immigrants have ties to other countries it is more likely that they emigrate relative to the native born worker 3 using an overlapping generations model galor and stark show that the higher the probability of emigration the higher is the level of savings hence they predict immigrants save more than the native born dustmann models precautionary savings and assumes that immigrants maximize expected lifetime utility from consumption in the host and home country proportionally to the lifetime spent abroad and at home 4 under appropriate restrictions 5 dustmann shows that if labor markets in the home and host countries are uncorrelated immigrants will carry out more precautionary savings relative to a comparable native worker because immigrants will be subject to greater income risk in the host country 6 however it is also possible in dustmann s formulation to have immigrants engaging in less precautionary saving relative to native workers for example if economic conditions across the two countries are correlated immigrants could be subject to less lifelong income risk than natives given their ability to diversify away labor market risk by operating in two markets rather than just one as in the case of natives additionally if the risk preferences of natives and immigrants are different then the precautionary saving motive could be more or less pronounced in one group relative to the other all else equal carroll rhee and rhee 1994 use the canadian survey of family expenditures to compare saving behavior of immigrants to canada from different regions of the world they conclude that immigrant saving does not significantly differ by country of origin however they do find that recent immigrants save less than do canadian born and that immigrants saving behavior approaches the pattern of the canadian born over time overall the theoretical literature tends to favor the hypothesis that immigrants carry out more precautionary savings than natives which could result in immigrants accumulating more wealth than natives immigrants face greater uncertainty regarding their labor market participation labor market progress and health care coverage these factors along with geographic distance may make it more difficult to obtain financial support from family members in times of necessity requiring that immigrants maintain larger stocks of precautionary saving but dustmann s model in consonance with a widely held view also allows for immigrants to be more risk tolerant than natives since they are willing to undergo higher uncertainties and risks when they decide to migrate to a new country barsky et al

on two definitions of productivity abstract caves et al in 1982 introduced a productivity measure that does not proceed from a continuous timer presentation they named these indexes after sten malmquist who in 1953 used ratios of distance functions to formulate quantity indexes in the consumer context in a later paper diewert proposed an alternative definition of productivity also based on distance functions which he attributed to hicks and moorsteen in this letter we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the malmquist productivity index to equal the hicks moorsteen index

early influences on saving behaviour analysis of british panel data using data from the british household panel survey and understanding society we examine the saving behaviour of individuals over time initially we explore the determinants of the saving behaviour of children aged 11 15 our findings suggest that parental allowances pocket money earnings from part time work lower increase the probability that a child saves there is also evidence that the financial expectations of the head of household have an influence on their offspring s saving behaviour where children of optimistic parents have a lower probability of saving by approximately 2 percentage points however there is no evidence of an intergenerational correlation in savings behaviour the saving behaviour of parents appears to have no bearing on the saving decisions of their offspring we then go on to explore the implications of the saving behaviour of children for their savings decisions in later life specifically when observed in early adulthood we find that having saved as a child has a large positive influence both on the probability of saving on a monthly basis and on the amount saved as an adult this finding is robust to alternative empirical strategies including iv analysis where the most conservative estimates show that having saved as a child increases the probability of saving during adulthood by 12 percentage points

total factor productivity growth technological progress and technical efficiency change dimensions of productivity change in yugoslavia 1965 1978 this article total factor productivity growth technological progress and technical efficiency change dimensions of productivity change in yugoslavia 1965 78 was reprinted with permission from the december 1982 issue of the economic journal this article proposes a methodology that decomposes total factor productivity change into two distinct elements technological progress and changes in technical efficiency technological progress is defined as the change in the best practice production frontier all other productivity change is attributed to technical efficiency change the article provides a theoretical framework for decomposing total factor productivity growth as well as a specification and estimation of the deterministic frontier production function it employs a programming technique to estimate a flexible functional form of the production frontier the paper then applies this technique to empirical data from yugoslavia of the period from 1965 to 1978 it concludes that for yugoslavia improvements to technical efficiency comprise the dominant contribution to total factor productivity change this agrees with accumulating evidence that in many developing economies productivity gain due to technological mastery of imported technology is substantial

national health insurance and precautionary saving evidence from taiwan abstract by reducing uncertainty about future medical expenses comprehensive health insurance can reduce households precautionary saving we examine this effect using taiwan micro data spanning the 1995 introduction of national health insurance the effects of national health insurance are identified using employment based variation in prior insurance coverage replacement of the households prior insurance coverage with national health insurance is exogenous to the household so our estimates are not subject to selection bias compared with the preceding government insurance programs national health insurance reduced saving by an average of 8 6 13 7 with the largest effects for households with the smallest saving

earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving abstract we test for the presence of precautionary saving using a self reported measure of earnings uncertainty drawn from the 1989 italian survey of household income and wealth the effect of uncertainty on wealth accumulation is consistent with the theory of precautionary saving and with decreasing prudence but explains only a small fraction of saving the results cast doubts on the empirical relevance of precautionary saving in response to earnings uncertainty but are not in contrast with the importance of the precautionary motive per se beside earnings uncertainty other risks such as health and mortality may be important determinants of wealth accumulation

decomposing productivity indexes into explanatory factors abstract productivity measures are increasingly regarded as key indicators of economic performance identifying sources of productivity growth is of interest to both firms and policy makers this paper revisits the debate on how to decompose productivity growth into explanatory factors with a focus on extracting technical progress technical efficiency change and returns to scale components using bjurek s concept of the malmquist index introduced into production theory in a systematic way by caves christensen and diewert a reference technology is required to define the components of interest unlike other approaches ours do not make any convexity assumptions on the reference technology but instead follows the example of tulkens and his coauthors in assuming that the reference technology satisfies free disposability assumptions a new decomposition of a productivity index is provided with the existence and properties of the underlying distance functions of the decomposition proven under relatively unrestrictive assumptions the paper also provides for the first time a theoretical justification for the geometric average form of the bjurek productivity index these rigorous theoretical contributions provide significant avenues for enhanced understanding of empirical productivity performance

public transfers family socioeconomic traits and the job search behavior of the unemployed evidence from puerto rico abstract this paper explores the theoretical and empirical associations between the job search efforts of the unemployed and the socioeconomic characteristics of the family it takes as a point of reference that certain supply side phenomena may contribute to puerto rico s high open unemployment rate the statistical analyses carried out indicate that there does exist what can be labeled luxury unemployment in other words government provided transfer payments generate disincentive effects with respect to the job market behavior of the unemployed moreover the dependency status of the individual within the family group also leads to lower job search effort

replacement income duration of unemployment and the migration of unemployed prime age males the relationship between the interstate migration of unemployed males of prime working age i e 25 44 years of age the level of unemployment replacement income and the duration of unemployment spells is addressed through the use of a relatively untapped data source the us census s survey of income and program participation sipp the rich set of details that are provided in this database allows a more precise empirical analysis of the above relationships than has been possible with psid cps and other previously used databases by restricting the sample to a relatively homogeneous segment of the work force its is possible to isolate better the effects of unemployment replacement income and job search duration on the migration decision of unemployed workers without the confounding effects of the variety of demographic factors that previous studies have shown to influence labour force migration the results suggest that for unemployed prime working age males the probability of migration is negativel

fly by night firms and the market for product reviews this paper presents a model that permits third party information provision in a market characterized by information asymmetries and reputation formation the model is used to examine how the market for information provision affects prices and supply in the primary market they find that decreasing the cost of providing and using information 1 increases rather than decreases the margins received by reputable service firms 2 decreases the price of new untested service firms so reputation is more costly to build and 3 leads to more high quality firms and less fly by night firms copyright 1989 by blackwell publishing ltd

consumption puzzles and precautionary savings abstract when marginal utility is convex agents accumulate savings as a precautionary measure against labor income eventualities this paper shows that precautionary savings can go a long way in making the excess growth excess smoothness and excess sensitivity features of consumption consistent with the stochastic processes of labor income observed in the u s at the microeconomic level

should social security benefits be means tested social security retirement benefits distort the saving decisions of workers who are rational enough to save for their future since the implicit rate of return in an unfunded social security program is less than the marginal product of capital the resulting decline in saving causes a welfare loss the present paper examines the conditions under which the welfare loss could be reduced by replacing the current universal social security program with a means tested program that pays benefits only to those individuals with little or no other retirement income or assets every society must solve the problem of supporting those individuals who become too old to work but have not made adequate provision for their own old age by saving when they were young at the present time the major industrial countries of the world have responded to this problem by creating social security programs that tax the working population and use the proceeds to provide a universal benefit to all retirees regardless of their financial condition this universal provision of social security benefits distorts the saving decisions of those workers who are rational enough to plan for the future since the implicit rate of return that taxpayers get on their this research is part of the nber study of the government budget and the private economy a more complete version of this paper with some numerical calculations is available as nber working paper no 1775 feldstein 1985b i am grateful to gilbert metcalf for assistance with the calculations presented in this paper and for helpful discussions for a discussion of the effect of promised retirement benefits on the savings of employees see feldstein 1974 1982 barro 1974 1978 has discussed an interesting

american federalism welfare policy and residential choices the relationship between welfare benefit levels and the residential choices of the poor raises two issues for federalism in the united states do state benefit levels affect the residential choices of the poor do residential choices of the poor affect the level at which a state sets its benefit levels empirical studies have seldom studied the interconnection between these two issues this research estimates simultaneously the mutual effects of welfare benefits and poverty rates while controlling for other economic and political variables when benefit levels become high the size of the poverty population increases conversely when poverty rates become high benefit levels are cut the findings are consistent with the claim that state determined benefit levels distort policy and residential choices

the malmquist total factor productivity index the definitions of the malmquist output and input quantity indexes specified by d w caves l r christensen and w e diewert 1982 are applied in this study based on these indexes a malmquist total factor productivity index is derived for general production structures the definition maintains the fundamental characteristic of a productivity index as a ratio between an output quantity change index and an input quantity change index this index provides a remedy for the shortcoming of the traditional definition of the malmquist productivity index in that the latter does not correctly measure changes in productivity in the presence of changes in returns to scale copyright 1996 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

the surprisingly low importance of income uncertainty for precaution abstract while it is common to use income uncertainty to explain household saving decisions there is much disagreement about the importance of precautionary saving this paper suggests that income uncertainty is not an important motive for saving although households do have other precautionary reasons to save using a question from the survey of consumer finances that asks how much households want for precautionary purposes this paper shows that expressed household preferences and liquid savings are much lower than predicted by standard modeling assumptions households rarely list unemployment as a reason to save perceived income uncertainty does not affect liquid savings or precautionary preferences neither does being in an occupation with higher income volatility instead households seem very concerned with expenditure shocks

endogenous outside options in coordination games experimental evidence abstract in this experiment traders choose between an outside option offered by an intermediary and playing a coordination game with each other the intermediary is either a broker or a dealer we find that intermediaries manage to attract traders even to offer levels lower than the payoff that traders could have obtained had they rejected the intermediary s offer for any given offer traders are more likely to accept a dealer s offer than a broker s offer the introduction of either intermediary type reduces average trader s earnings on the other hand intermediaries have a coordination role as predicted by the forward induction argument when traders reject the intermediary s offer and play the coordination sub game they achieve a significantly greater level of coordination

labour supply impacts of effective welfare programme parameters a reanalysis we quantify the impact of effective welfare programme parameters on the labour supply of single female household heads the primary group of welfare recipients in the usa our panel of data is derived from the us census bureau s current population survey for the years 1979 to 1990 inclusive behavioural impacts from a range of economic variables are consistent in sign with predictions made by economic theory we find that effective welfare gurantee levels and the effective tax rate on earned income both significantly decrease labour supply the marginal effects of these welfare programme parameters are economically small a us 1000 increase in the expected welfare guarantee level reduces annual labour supply by about 36 hours a 10 percentage point increase in the effective tax rate on earned income reduces annual labour supply by about 7 5 hours

how prudent are consumers using data from the consumer expenditure survey this paper presents a simple test that provides an explicit estimate of the parameter in the utility function that reflects the strength of the precautionary saving motive the coefficient of relative prudence the test yields a fairly precise estimate of a small precautionary motive in fact the estimate is too small to be consistent with widely accepted beliefs about risk aversion the presence of liquidity constrained households does not appear to explain this finding and there is some evidence that self selection of households into risky environments also cannot explain the results

uncertain lifetime consumption and dissaving in retirement this paper asks whether the continued accumulation or mild dissaving observed among the retired can be explained by uncertain lifetime in the absence of annuities after an initial period influenced by borrowing constraints under constant relative risk aversion uncertain lifetime depresses consumption by a proportion increasing with age if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is small illustrative computations based on actual income and survival data show that plausible elasticities are sufficiently small to give this effect the reduction in consumption is large enough to explain much of the lack of decumulation by the elderly

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

precautionary savings of agents with heterogeneous risk aversion this article focuses on the estimation of the importance of the precautionary motive in the wealth accumulation decision we use the micro data set of the de nederlandsche bank dnb household survey dhs centerdata tilburg university a dutch household survey containing information on wealth a subjective measure of income uncertainty and subjective qualitative measures of risk aversion we find that only a small share of wealth is accumulated for the precautionary motive by the dutch households this share of wealth is constant across assets with different degrees of liquidity the economic downturn of the period 2008 to 2010 seems to affect risk attitudes and precautionary saving our findings also suggest that the more risk averse individuals are those who hold less savings

product differentiation with imperfect information the paper employs a model of monopolistic competition and product differentiation with consumers who are not well informed about the specification of the offered brands welfare analysis of the degree of product differentiation in such a market concludes that the socially desirable product variety is limited due to consumers imperfect information consequently when the number of consumers is sufficiently large or economies to scale in production are sufficiently weak the market would offer excessive variety the literature on product differentiation is motivated by the observation that only some of the potential brands of a differentiated product are produced and sold it studies issues such as the role of the market structure in the determination of product diversity and the welfare performance of alternative markets in making this product selection for example see lancaster 1979 and salop 1979 in the spatial models tradition spence 1976 and dixit and stiglitz 1977 in the diversifying representative consumer tradition these studies model product selection as an equilibrium outcome of monopolistic competition the welfare analysis focuses on the tradeoff between consumer benefits which naturally increase with variety and production efficiency which owing to economies to scale decreases with variety they find no natural relation between the socially optimal variety and the market outcome the latter can be smaller or larger than the former depending on the parameters of the model although it is natural to expect that in some markets for differentiated products consumers are imperfectly informed about the available brands all these studies assume that consumers possess perfect information the present paper assumes that consumers are imperfectly informed and indeed obtains qualitatively different results first regardless of how significant are the production economies of scale the optimal variety is below a predetermined level that depends on the parameters of consumer utility and information second when consumer population is sufficiently large or economies to scale in production are sufficiently weak the market would offer excessive variety the explanation is that consumers imperfect information limits the extent to which they can exploit the variety offered in the market it is therefore a social waste to increase variety to a level that consumers cannot benefit from

precautionary saving in the small and in the large the theory of precautionary saving is shown to be isomorphic to the arrow pratt theory of risk aversion making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving and more generally to the theory of optimal choice under risk in particular a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive analogous to the arrow pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving and to give a new interpretation of the dreze modigliani substitution effect copyright 1990 by the econometric society

welfare the earned income tax credit and the labor supply of single mothers during 1984 1996 welfare and tax policy were changed to encourage work by single mothers the earned income tax credit was expanded welfare benets were cut welfare time limits were added and welfare cases were terminated medicaid for the working poor was expanded as were training programs and child care during this same time period there were unprecedented increases in the employment and hours of single mothers we show that a large share of the increase in work by single mothers can be attributed to the eitc and other tax changes with smaller shares for welfare benet cuts welfare waivers training programs and child care programs