market access well being and nutrition evidence from ethiopia summary we use a unique data source from a rural area in northwestern ethiopia to analyze the relationship between household individual well being nutrition and market access we find that households residing in relatively more remote areas consume substantially less than households nearer to the market they are more food insecure and their school enrollment rates are lower although their diets are also less diverse we find no significant differences in mother and child anthropometric measures part of the differences in well being that we do observe can be attributed to lower household agricultural production in remote areas nonetheless agricultural production differences alone do not account for all the differences in household consumption levels for remote households an additional contributing factor is the terms of trade for remote households that negatively affect both the size of the agricultural surplus that these households market and the quantity of food items that they purchase reducing transaction costs for remote households and facilitating migration could help equalize well being among more or less favored locations

the information content of annual earnings releases a trading volume approach this paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the relations between the volume of securities traded the magnitude of surprises in annual earnings announcements and firm size although early trading volume studies e g beaver 1968 kiger 1972 and foster 1973 replicated basic information content studies with findings similar to those based on security prices we should not expect that security price and trading volume research will continue to yield identical results when more refined hypotheses are tested trading volume reflects investors activity by summing all market trades whereas security prices reflect an aggregation or averaging of investors beliefs as a result we will on occasion observe differences between price and volume reactions to earnings announcements as did morse 1981 this study extends the recent trend toward tests of more refined hypotheses by using a larger sample to examine the associations between unexpected earnings firm size and trading volume and testing whether such associations can be generalized across fiscal year end dates and stock exchange listing my results show a continuous positive relationship between trading

the asset market model of the balance of payments and the exchange rate a survey of empirical evidence abstract the purpose of this survey is to assemble and evaluate empirical evidence on the asset market model of the balance of payments and the exchange rate in section i the distinctive features of asset market models are compared with earlier keynesian models particular attention is directed to the assumptions and predictions of the monetary model which is a special and well known case of more general asset market models and thereby serves as a useful benchmark for discussion in sections ii and iii the empirical evidence under fixed and flexible exchange rates is evaluated the paper is concluded in section iv with an assessment of our current state of knowledge

a theory of trading volume a theory of trading volume is developed based on assumptions that market agents frequently revise their demand prices and randomly encounter potential trading partners the model describes two distinct ways informational events affect trading volume one is consistent with conjectures made by empirical researchers that investor disagreement leads to increased trading but the observation of abnormal trading volume does not necessarily imply disagreement and volume can increase even if investors interpret the information identically if they also have had divergent prior expectations simulation tests support the model and are used to contrast the random pairing environment with costless market clearing volume is lower in the costly market and volume increases caused by an informational event persist after the event period this is consistent with existing empirical evidence and suggests that markets do not immediately clear all orders or that investors have demands to recontract

the stability of the demand for international reserves abstract empirical studies based on data from the 1960s and 1970s yielded estimated demands for international reserves that have been regarded as stable functions of a limited set of variables exept during the period surrounding the collapse of the bretton woods system this paper examines the stability of these estimated demands by extending the samles to include data from the 1980s the new estimation results indicate that the emergenceof external payments difficulties and reduced access to international financial markets of many countries have been accompanied by changes in the changes in the estimated demands for reserves that were as large as those that occurred during the collapse ofthe bretton woods system

stock price reactions to lifo adoptions the association between excess returns and lifo tax savings although long a topic of accounting research little is known about the motives for or effects of voluntary changes in accounting techniques among the motives which have been suggested are attempts by managers to smooth reported earnings gordon 1964 copeland 1968 cushing 1969 white 1972 and ronen and sadan 1981 to influence man agement compensation to reduce regulatory or political costs watts and zimmerman 1978 and to avoid bond covenant restrictions holthausen 1981 while some of these motives may be consistent with a market value rule they often fail to provide unambiguous accounting change predictions e g which accounting changes result in lower regulatory costs moreover empirical verification has been constrained by the unobservability of the variables to which the managers allegedly respond the stock price reaction which should be expected for a given account ing change depends not only on its implications for the valuation of securities but also on the extent to which the implications are already known or anticipated by investors 3 ultimately our ability to detect these stock price effects if any depends on the power of our tests previous studies of the effects of accounting changes have generally not found significant stock price reactions archibald 1972 ball 1972 kaplan and roll 1972 harrison 1977 and holthausen 1981 4 for the most part these studies dealt with accounting changes which had no direct cash flow effects in contrast changes in inventory costing methods especially those involving the last in first out lifo cost flow assumption can generate potentially large changes in a firm s cash flows due to their impact on taxable earnings these cash flow effects provide not only a motive for lifo changes5 which is consistent with the market value rule but also implications for associated stock price effects if investors react to lifo s cash flow implications rather than to its effects on reported earnings then positive stock price adjustments should be associated with lifo adjustments however the evidence from previous studies of stock price reactions to lifo adoptions is inconclusive ball 1972 sunder 1973 1975 abdel khalik and mckeown 1978 brown 1980 and ricks 1982 while several factors may account for these results see section 2 it can be noted that the previous studies have considered only a dichotomous variable whether or not a firm has adopted lifo yet because the cash flow consequences of a lifo adoption decision depend on a number of firm specific factors this approach ignores potentially large differences among firms in the economic consequences of lifo adoptions most firms switching to lifo now reveal in their financial statement disclosures the tax savings which have been realized this study uses these disclosures to examine the association between unsystematic re turns and the magnitudes of first year lifo tax savings for all nyse firms which adopted or extended their use of lifo during the period 1972 80 subject to data availability 6 the research design employs within group comparisons based on cumulative monthly unsystematic excess returns with appropriate controls for unexpected earnings per formance 7 this design avoids several methodological weaknesses inherent in the previous studies and allows more definitive tests of hypotheses relating investor reactions to the income and cash flow effects of lifo adoptions as reported more fully below results based on lifo adoptions made in 1974 are consistent with a positive association between cumulative excess stock returns and the magnitudes of lifo tax savings 8 the results also provide evidence that changes in systematic risk may accompany lifo adoptions however contrary to previous studies most of the sample firms exhibit downward rather than upward changes in systematic risk section 2 reviews the previous studies of stock price reactions to lifo adoptions and suggests explanations for their results section 3 discusses the alternative approach employed in this study while section 4 describes the test methodologies employed the data and data selection procedures are described in section 5 the results and a discussion are presented in section 6 section 7 offers some conclusions

trading on inside information evidence from the share structure reform in china abstract we examine stock trading activities in days before chinese listed firms made public announcement to start share structure reform there is significant evidence that relative to a benchmark period institutional investors bought more event firms shares in the last two trading days prior to announcement randomization tests show significant differences in institutional trading activities between event firms and matched control firms which suggests that some institutions had inside information moreover large trades account for a significant proportion of daily stock price changes in the last 2 days the evidence is consistent with the prediction by holden and subrahmanyam 1992 that when multiple informed investors acquire the same piece of information they will trade aggressively we also find that over the reform period the median share value change of event firms is 6 higher than that of control firms our findings have important implications for enforcement of insider trading regulations in china

return autocorrelation and institutional investors abstract we propose and test the hypothesis that trading by institutional investors contributes to serial correlation in daily returns our results demonstrate that nyse particles and individual security daily return autocorrelationsare an increasing function of the level of institutional ownership moreover the results are consistent with the hypothesis that institutional trading reflects information and increases the speed of price adjustment the relation between autocorrelation and institutional holdings does not however apparent to be driven by market frictions or rational time varying required rates of return we conclude that institutional investors correlated trading patterns contribute to axial correlation in daily returns

price reaction and disagreement over public signal abstract we develop a theory of endogenous disagreement over the interpretation of public news based on the optimal expectation model proposed by brunnermeier and parker 2005 in our model each agent can form an optimal interpretation and agree to disagree with others we find that endogenous disagreement and trade may arise following public news events the model predicts that the market price overreacts to uninformative news and underreacts to informative news thus providing a unified account for the drift in price following significant news events and the excessive price volatility in response to noisy information

seasonalities in security returns the case of earnings announcements abstract we document a seasonal pattern in stock returns around quarterly earnings announcement dates small firms show large positive abnormal returns and a sizable increase in the variability of returns around these dates only part of the large abnormal returns can be accounted for by the tendency of firms with good news to announce early large firms show no abnormal returns around announcement dates and a much smaller increase in variability

targeting maps an asset based approach to geographic targeting summary proper targeting of policy interventions requires reasonable estimates of the benefits of the alternative options to inform such decisions we develop an integrated approach stemming from the small area estimation literature that estimates the marginal returns to a range of assets across geographically defined subpopulations we create a series of maps that can be overlaid with traditional poverty maps to identify strong candidate areas for intervention though an efficiency equity tradeoff sometimes exists we apply our method using recent ugandan data results are consistent with independent empirical findings and suggest asset specific transfer schemes would improve with a spatially targeted strategy

a monetary approach to the crawling peg system theory and evidence this paper develops and estimates a model of the joint determination of the exchange rate international reserves and the rate of inflation under a crawling peg system the framework presented which is an extension of previous work on the monetary approach generates short run deviations from purchasing power parity that occur simultaneously with movements in both international reserves and the exchange rate the model is estimated by full information maximum likelihood on the basis of quarterly data for brazil

monetary policy dollarization and parallel market exchange rates the case of the dominican republic abstract excessive money creation may give rise to inflation tax revenues and to a depreciation of the domestic currency this in turn leads to a shift away from the domestic currency into a foreign currency e g the us dollar hence the term dollarization from the domestic monetary authority s point of view dollarization is an unwelcomed phenomenomn thus the monetary authorities will attempt to arrest the dollarization phenomenon while maintaining the excessive money growth this paper develops and tests a model which analyzes the effects of monetary policy on dollarization and the parallel market exchange rates

predisclosure information firm capitalization and security price behavior around earnings announcements several studies on the relationship between earnings reports and security price behavior provide evidence suggesting that a significant portion of the information revealed through earnings reports is reflected in security prices prior to the report month e g ball and brown 1968 and brown and kennelly 1972 this has been attributed at least partly to the existence of other more timely sources of information which allow market agents to forecast earnings prior to their release the evidence above reflects an average finding across all firms one question of interest is whether there are significant systematic crosssectional differences in the security price reactions to earnings announcements of firms which are associated with specific firm characteristics that lead to differential amounts of predisclosure information this study focuses on firm size capitalization as one such characteristic a firm

the balance of payments offset to monetary policy monetarist portfolio balance and keynesian estimates for mexico and venezuela three balance of payments equations are specified and estimated for mexico and venezuela while a large offset is found for venezuela there is no evidence of a significant offset for mexico in the 1970s however it is shown that from 1951 to 1970 the offset was close to minus one suggesting there was structural change in the 1970s the estimated offset for venezuela in the keynesian equation is smaller than that in the monetarist equation supporting arguments that the latter is biased toward minus one however the long run offset is minus one in accord ance with both approaches copyright 1986 by ohio state university press

google search keywords that best predict energy price volatility abstract internet search activity data has been widely used as an instrument to approximate trader attention in different markets this method has proven effective in predicting market indices in the short term however little attention has been paid to demonstrating search activity for keywords that best grab investor attention in different markets this study attempts to build the best practically possible proxy for attention in the market for energy commodities using google search data specifically we confirm the utility of google search activity for energy related keywords are significant predictors of volatility by showing they have incremental predictive power beyond the conventional garch models in predicting volatility for energy commodities prices starting with a set of ninety terms used in the energy sector the study uses a multistage filtering process to create combinations of keywords that best predict the volatility of crude oil brent and west texas intermediate conventional gasoline new york harbor and us gulf coast heating oil new york harbor and natural gas prices for each commodity combinations that enhance garch most effectively are established as proxies of attention the results indicate investor attention is widely reflected in internet search activities and demonstrate search data for what keywords best reveal the direction of concern and attention in energy markets

the earnings announcement premium around the globe abstract u s stocks have been shown to earn higher returns during earnings announcement months than during non announcement months we document that this earnings announcement premium exists across the globe moreover it is not isolated to a few countries of the 20 countries with enough data to conduct a within country analysis nine exhibit a significantly positive premium a cross country analysis finds that the premium is strongest in countries with the greatest increase in idiosyncratic volatility around the time of their firms earnings announcements suggesting that uncertainty over the earnings information to be disclosed is a primary driver of the global announcement premium

the structure of open economy macro models abstract the objectives here include a rigorous investigation of a walras law in an open economy b the generality or non generality of the monetary approach to the balance of payments c the logical consistency of the traditional keynesian models of the balance of payments d the relationship if any between a government budget imbalance and the balance of payments and e perhaps most importantly the underlying cause s of a non zero balance of payments many of the conclusions differ from the conventional wisdom

earnings news and small traders an intraday analysis abstract this study separates trading volume into buyer and seller initiated activities and examines the directional volume reaction in small and large trades to different types of earnings news good bad news triggers brief but intense buying selling in the large trades however a persistent period of unusually high buying activity is observed in the small trades irrespective of the news this anomalous proclivity of small traders to buy is robust across firm size trading volume and different earnings expectation models several explanations are discussed although the behavior does not seem fully explained by existing theories

are trade size based inferences about traders reliable evidence from institutional earnings related trading the use of observed transaction sizes to differentiate between small and large investor trading patterns is widespread a significant concern in such studies is spurious effects attributable to misclassification of transactions particularly those originating from large investors such effects can arise unintentionally strategically or endogenously we examine comprehensive records of a sample of institutional investors i e large traders including their order sizes and overall position changes to assess the degree to which such misclassifications give rise to spurious inferences about small and large investor trading activities our analysis shows that these institutions are heavily involved in small transaction activity it also shows that they increase their order sizes substantially in announcement periods relative to nonannouncement periods presumably as an endogenous response to earnings news in the immediate earnings announcement period transaction size based inferences about directional trading are quite misleading producing spurious small trader effects and more surprisingly erroneous inferences about large trader activity

on the monetary macro dynamics of colombia and mexico abstract this paper investigates the dynamic interrelationship among money growth inflation and output growth for colombia and mexico on the basis of implementation of a vector autoregression methodology the evidence for colombia generally shows autonomous output growth and money growth behavior and an important role for money shocks in accounting for variations in inflations a different pattern of results emerged for mexico there are strong two way feedbacks among money growth and inflation and a less autonomous output growth behavior than in colombia

targeting public investments by agro ecological zone to achieve growth and poverty alleviation goals in rural india abstract this paper shows that improved technology and rural infrastructure have made important contributions to agricultural growth and poverty reduction in india however these effects have varied widely across agro ecological zones in the past the government has devoted more resources to irrigated areas and this has led to significant production growth and poverty reduction in those areas however as investments in irrigated areas continue to increase their marginal returns diminish and it is now in many of the rainfed areas including some of lower agricultural potential where the marginal returns from additional government investments in technology and infrastructure are largest

the ex ante and ex post price effects of quarterly earnings announcements reflected in option and stock prices the subject of this study is the effect of investors anticipations of impending informative disclosures on the behavior of option and stock prices our approach introduced in a previous paper patell and wolfson 1979 and substantially extended here represents the following significant departure from traditional information content studies instead of analyzing security price reactions to announcements we analyze preannouncement option prices in order to discern investors beliefs about the range of possible stock price reactions expected to accompany a forthcoming disclosure whose actual content is not yet known in the tests reported here we focus on quarterly earnings announcements as disclosure events whose timing is predictable and we attempt to detect their systematic influence on the relationship between stock and option prices our operational definition of information content emphasizes changes in the variability of common stock returns in response to earnings disclosures while market efficiency precludes investors from predicting the direction of the stock price change which will accompany a future earnings announcement it is likely that investors will anticipate increased price variability at the time of disclosure and indeed several studies have documented announcement date increases in stock price volatility

the choice of an optimum exchange currency regime for a small economy an econometric analysis abstract this paper investigates empirically the issue of a fixed versus a flexible exchange currency regime for a small economy the west african monetary union the econometric analysis implements a mundellian trade off between economic development and monetary stability which measures the main cost and benefit of the various exchange currency regimes examined the empirical results indicate that the fixed trade weighted basket peg is optimal by the tower and willet criterion and that it meets some of kenen s criteria for an efficient exchange currency regime

the association between accounting earnings and security returns for large and small firms abstract the differential information hypothesis advanced by atiase 1980 states that information production and dissemination by private parties for the purpose of identifying mispriced securities is an increasing function of firm size this study examines two corollaries of that hypothesis first security prices of large firms anticipate accounting earnings earlier than security prices of small firms second for a given level of unexpected earnings the cumulative abnormal returns of small firms exceed those of large firms the results are generally consistent with atiase s hypothesis

the dynamics of chronic inflation in brazil 1968 1985 this article develops an error correction model with the aim of analyzing the behavior of prices during a period of chronic inflation in brazil the degree of inflationary inertia is estimated and tests for the importance of disequilibria in the domestic money foreign goods labor and domestic goods markets on inflation are carried out

returns to investment in less favored areas in developing countries a synthesis of evidence and implications for africa abstract a large proportion of world s population lives in marginal or less favored areas these areas are of home to the poorest segment of the population particularly in rural areas in the past government has targeted their resources mostly to the high potential or irrigated areas these investments have generated rapid growth in agricultural production for example the so called green revolution in south and southeast asia in the 1970s and 1980s which in turn has helped to alleviate rural and urban poverty however as investments continue to increase in these favored areas their marginal returns have begun to decline and environmental problems are emerging evidence shows that it is in the marginal areas or less favored areas where many investments may have higher returns today these investments may have even larger impacts on poverty reduction and environmental protection as poor people are increasingly concentrated in the marginal areas where natural resources have already been severely degraded this study synthesizes some recent studies from india and china on the relative returns to investments in favored and less favored areas and presents some preliminary evidence from uganda and offers some policy implications for africa on how governments and international donors can reprioritize their investment portfolio in order to achieve multiple goals of growth poverty reduction and environmental protection

a note on the international transmission of inflation abstract this paper investigates the relative impact of u s inflation and domestic monetary factors on the joint determination of inflation and the balance of payments of mexico between 1950 and 1979 it also tests the hypothesis that the u s money supply has an additional direct impact on mexico s balance of payments

balance of payments dynamics and exchange rate management abstract this paper studies the dynamics of the balance of payments in response to policy disturbances under the assumption that the central bank devalues the country s currency over time at a constant pre announced rate depending on the magnitudes of the parameters of the model i find that a given disturbance may result in qualitatively different short run behavior of the balance of payments accounts in each case however the adjustment process will lead the economy to a stable long run equilibrium provided the government finances its spending according to a certain set of rules

prices and output in the mexican economy emperical testing of alternative hypotheses abstract this paper derives and compares alternative formulations of price and output formation for the mexican economy over the period 1961 1981 a structuralist type model with working capital is found to dominate its monetarist and keynesian counterparts a breakdown of the causes of inflation is offered and some simulations are carried out to highlight some trade offs among real wages the real exchange rate real interest rates and output

modern input promotion in sub saharan africa insights from asian green revolution using case materials from four major cereal growing countries in asia bangladesh india indonesia and pakistan the article analyzes key aspects of agricultural input policies in asia results suggest that asian policies differ from the current wave of african input subsidy programs in three important ways i instead of focusing mostly on seed and chemical fertilizer input promotion in asia involved a package approach involving investments in agricultural rd ii farmers in three of four countries paid higher prices net taxed for fertilizer during the height of the green revolution suggesting that it was the profitability not the subsidy that was central to increasing fertilizer use and iii asian countries did not target input subsidies but given leakage and diversion estimates of targeted programs it is unclear whether targeting would have been more cost effective both continents have two challenges in common degradation of soil health and increasingly larger shares of public spending on input subsidies the first challenge calls for paying attentions to improving fertilizer use efficiency which is an achievable target with high pay off in the long run the other challenge is now a historical fact that is once introduced subsidies are hard to eliminate even if they no longer contribute to agricultural productivity growth

the timing of monetary and price changes and the international transmission of inflation this paper presents a theoretical and empirical investigation into timing relationships between variables within and across industrialized countries the main empirical results of our analysis are 1 domestic monetary expansion appears to lead inflation in the sense that money granger causes prices without feedback contradicting an implication of the monetary approach to the balance of payments 2 hardly any significant timing relationship exists between domestic and foreign rates of inflation during the fixed exchange rate period providing no evidence for a generalized law of one price 3 some sterilization of official reserve inflows was successfully performed by the non reserve central banks except for canada 4 u s interest rates granger cause foreign rates providing evidence of some international transmission via asset markets

how important is the financial media in global markets this article studies differences in the information content of 870 000 news announcements in 56 markets around the world in most developed markets a firm s stock price moves much more on days with public news about the firm in contrast in many emerging markets volatility is similar on news and non news days we examine several hypotheses for our findings cross country differences in stock price reactions are best explained by insider trading followed by differences in the quality of the news dissemination mechanism our findings are useful for quantifying the extent of insider trading and how the financial media affects international markets jel g14 g15 public news announcements are a major mechanism for disseminating information to investors each day the financial media releases thousands of articles covering companies in markets worldwide investors use this news to estimate assets fundamental values despite the perceived importance of the

information value and investor wealth the case of earnings announcements this paper empirically investigates the relation between investor wealth and the value of annual and quarterly earnings announcements as implied by 1 the behavior of mean stock trade transaction sizes at announcement dates and 2 transaction size stratified trading activity in postannouncement time periods announcement period mean transaction sizes are found to exceed expected mean transactions sizes estimated from trading activity occurring in nonannouncement periods this result is attributed to a greater relative trading response to earnings announcements by wealthier investors consistent with ohlson s 1975 proposition that information value increases with investor wealth in a security market setting further evidence of a positive relation between value and wealth is found when postearnings announcement stock transactions are stratified by share size into three strata where the first stratum small stratum is transactions of 100 and 200 shares the second stratum large stratum is transactions of 300 to 900 shares and the third stratum institutional

price and trading volume reaction surrounding earnings announcements a closer examination the process of information dissemination and interpretation in securities markets is very complex and mostly unobservable while changes in prices and the amount of trading that takes place at the market level provide evidence of information processing verrecchia 1981 demonstrated that these are not sufficient to describe completely the dissemination of information and its interpretation by investors a descriptive study of price changes and trading volume however may still provide some insights into how investors react to information this paper is an empirical investigation of price changes and trading volume during the days surrounding the announcement of quarterly and annual earnings in the wall street journal wsj in the original paper investigating trading volume and price changes surrounding earnings announcements beaver 1968 was primarily concerned with whether the annual earnings announcement had information content i e led to changes in investors assessments of the probability distribution of future returns if there were any significant price changes and or trading volume during the week of the announcement then the annual earnings announcement was assumed to have had

creating an enabling environment policy conditions for less favored areas abstract within the rural areas those with a low productive potential usually home to poor agricultural households with limited access to assets are often the core of rural poverty and under constant threat of resource degradation there is ample evidence that neither trickle down effects in high potential areas nor structural adjustment measures have generated much poverty reduction in these less favored areas lfas often due a lack of attention to the development of factor and commodity markets sustainable and pro poor development of lfas therefore poses formidable challenges and requires special measures to achieve an enabling institutional and policy environment it needs to be based on viable sources of growth that imply considerable investments in physical and human capital and appropriate technology recognize positive externalities and add equity and natural resource management concerns in a context of heterogeneity to establish policy conditions that favor such development the role of and experience with major policy interventions incentives and institutions relevant to lfas is reviewed and an attempt is made to generalize these findings to this effect the different interventions are grouped into three broad categories viz price and market policies public services and investment and institutions and governance while countries should adopt the relevant market and trade policies the case is made for greater awareness of the adverse impact these policies can have in lfas and on their poor and complementary policies and investments need to be put in place to buffer or offset adverse outcomes key complementary interventions include public investments in infrastructure human capital and technology to enhance the competitiveness of lfas and policies to improve their market access there is also need for appropriate phasing of policy and market reforms to give people time to adjust and effective safety nets to cushion loss of livelihood options

the short run dynamics of prices and the balance of payments the purpose of this study is to analyze theoretically and empirically the short run behavior of prices and the balance of payments in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate following the presentation of the theoretical framework the experience of mexico during 1950 73 is analyzed the model is based on what is known as the monetary approach to the balance of payments this approach as is frequently presented deals with long run equilibrium situations when all relative prices are fixed this long run equilibrium view was applied to test empirically the theory for several countries 2 using the assumption that there are no serious barriers to the international movement of capital and that all goods are traded 3 these assumptions imply that goods and capital markets are perfectly arbitraged and therefore that price levels and interest rates in all the countries always move together

research for marginal environments are we underinvested abstract evidence is presented to show that adoption of modern wheat varieties in rainfed marginal environments of the developing world has lagged substantially compared to adoption in favoured well watered areas possible reasons for this lag are discussed and a simple congruency model is used to examine the case for shifting research resources from favoured to marginal environments with particular reference to wheat breeding application of the model to resource allocation in wheat research at the international level and for india a major wheat producing country suggests that the proportion of research resources invested in marginal environments has been adequate or even a bit high relative to the share of the value of wheat produced in these environments taking into account both efficiency and equity criteria

do idiosyncratic jumps matter abstract we show that idiosyncratic jumps are a key determinant of mean stock returns from both an ex post and ex ante perspective ex post the entire annual average return of a typical stock accrues on the four days on which its price jumps ex ante idiosyncratic jump risk earns a premium a value weighted weekly long short portfolio that buys sells stocks with high low predicted jump probabilities earns annualized mean returns of 9 4 and four factor alphas of 8 1 this strategy s returns are larger when there are greater limits to arbitrage these results are consistent with investor aversion to idiosyncratic jump risk

oil prices relative prices and balance of payments adjustment this paper attempts to ascertain the relative importance of foreign and domestic prices relative prices the exchange rate and domestic credit in their effects on the balance of payments and the rate of inflation it also discusses the question of whether the effect of the oil crisis on the turkish economy can be fully explained by the changes in observed price level relative prices and real income the oil crisis is modelled as an economic intervention and its dynamic effects on the inflation rate and the balance of payments are measured

option pricing of earnings announcement risks this paper uses option prices to learn about the equity price uncertainty surrounding information released on earnings announcement dates to do this we introduce reduced form models and estimators to separate price uncertainty regarding earnings announcements from normal day to day volatility empirically we find strong support for the importance of earnings announcements we find that the anticipated price uncertainty is quantitatively large varies across time and is informative about the future return volatility finally we quantify the impact of earnings announcements on formal option pricing models

stabilization policies in developing countries what have we learned abstract the paper reviews the recent experience with stabilization programmes in latin america in the light of traditional and monetarist models of inflation and the exchange rate the traditional model links both inflation and payments problems to budget deficits the monetarist model too believes that inflation is caused by fiscal deficits but it takes a more optimistic view of stabilization full purchasing power parity and perfect capital mobility make stabilization just a question of the appropriate exchange rate policy and the proper rate of domestic credit creation the traditional view is substantially right as a long run model but it fails in the dynamics the monetarist model is as we know now fundamentally wrong as a short run description of the possibilities of inflation control there is need and room for a paradigm that places emphasis on the debt money mix in financing the budget on the stickiness of inflation rates and on the place of short run real exchange rate and real interest rate variations that these are key features of the transition phase is amply borne out by the devasting and unsuccessful experiences with monetarist stabilization in argentina chile and brazil

the international transmission of inflation to a small open economy under fixed exchange rates and highly interest sensitive capital flows an empirical analysis abstract this paper deals with the international transmission of inflation to a small open economy soe under fixed exchange rates and facing very interest sensitive capital flows it focuses particular attention on a channel of transmission which has been hitherto largely ignored namely portfolio capital flows arising from the monetary policy actions of the soe s reserve currency country rcc the bulk of the existing literature on this topic regards portfolio capital flows and money in general as having no causative role but simply passively mirroring transmission through commodity markets the model obtains strong support for ireland from 1972 to 1979 during which the ir was maintained in a strict one for one parity with the stg

the relation between price changes and trading volume a survey this paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets and makes four contributions first two empiri cal relations are established volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and in equity markets to the price change per se second previous theoretical research on the price volume relation is summarized and critiqued and major insights are emphasized third a simple model ofthe price volume relation is proposed that is consis tent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations and fourth several directions for future research are identified

political shocks international reserves and the real exchange rate the argentine case abstract exogenous shocks to international reserves are introduced as an indicator for exchange rate adjustments these reserves shocks are identified for argentina in the 1970s and they appear to have been induced by political upheavals as well as by changes in the external terms of trade granger and modified sims causality tests indicate that the shocks to reserves did lead the real exchange rate from the seemingly erratic series of mini and maxi devaluations a rule of crawling galloping peg is estimated with the reserves shocks as significant independent variables that affected the pace of devaluations the crawling peg used as an instrument to pursue an international reserves target was the channel through which changes in the political and economic environment of the country were transmitted to fluctuations of its real exchange rate

exchange rate versus credit policy analysis with a monetary model of trade and inflation in india abstract a general equilibrium model of the trade balance and inflation in india is specified and empirically analyzed the model takes into account many important institutional features of india such as foreign exchange rationing and emphasizes the effects of monetary disequilibrium on the trade balance policy simulations compare the dynamic responses to devaluation with the responses to tight credit policy it is shown that the relative price effects of policies are often significantly offset by perverse liquidity effects which serve to raise absorption however the trade balance effects of devaluation are found to be more enduring than those of tight credit policy

strategies for sustainable agricultural development in the ethiopian highlands this paper investigates the impacts of population growth market access agricultural credit and technical assistance programs land policies livelihood strategies and other factors on changes in land management natural resource conditions and human welfare indicators since 1991 in the northern ethiopian highlands based on a survey of 198 villages we find that population growth has contributed significantly to land degradation poverty and food insecurity in this region in contrast better market access and some credit and technical assistance programs were associated with improvement or less decline in land quality wealth and food security suggesting the possibility of win win win development outcomes with appropriate interventions land redistribution was associated with adoption of inorganic fertilizer but also with declining use of fallow and declining soil fertility we find also that different land management practices are adopted where different livelihood strategies are pursued suggesting the importance of considering livelihood strategies in technical assistance programs development strategies should be tailored to the different comparative advantages of different locations no one size fits all strategy will work everywhere this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

an empirical inquiry into the short run dynamics of output prices and exchange market pressure abstract in this paper we develop a short run disequilibrium model for the interaction of output prices and exchange market pressure in this model we consider the trade off between movements in exchange rates and movements in international reserves and we also incorporate and test purchasing power parity as a long run hypothesis the specification adopted preserves the properties of the monetary approach to exchange rates and the balance of payments in the long run the theoretical model is applied to the small open economy of greece for the period 1975 1981

exchange market pressure in postwar brazil an application of the girton roper monetary model this study applies lance girton and don roper s hereafter g r monetary model of exchange market pressure to the postwar brazilian monetary experience the model was designed specifically for the canadian managed float during the period 1952 62 the object of their model is to explain what they term exchange market pressure that is the pressure on foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate when there exists an excess of domestic money supply over money demand in a managed floating exchange rate regime the basic theoretical proposition is that any such excess supply of money can be relieved by an exchange depreciation a loss in foreign reserves or in the context of a managed float by some combination of the two in this sense the g r managed float model used here is firmly rooted in the modern monetary approach to exchange rates and the balance of payments brazil provides a particularly good example for testing this approach not only because it is in many senses a unique example of a postwar managed float system but also because it can be treated as a small open economy in the sense that world prices and monetary conditions faced by brazil are taken as given this particularly suits the purpose of most modern monetary models which make this assumption and obviates the problems of monetary dependence and neutralization dealt with in the pioneering g r paper specifically the small country assumption permits us to devise a simple one country equation of managed floating which depends upon four essential ingredients 1 money demand 2 money supply 3 purchasing power parity and 4 monetary equilibrium 2 furthermore in brazil a much greater proportion of exchange market pressure was absorbed by exchange rate depreciation than in the canadian case where changes in reserves were large relative to exchange rate movements in short postwar brazil provides a singularly good opportunity to test the monetary model of exchange market pressure section i briefly states the essential elements of the monetary model and derives the equation to be tested for the brazilian experience from 1955 to 1975 section ii reports empirical results for the exchange market pressure model and section iii examines the applicability of the relative version of purchasing power parity for the time period considered section iv summarizes the results and discusses the merits of the monetary approach in light of the brazilian experience

devaluations and income distribution in latin america although the adoption of floating exchange rates by industrial countries may have reduced their foreign trade preoccupations most developing countries ldcs retain some form of fixed rates and have to confront with seemingly increasing frequency the dilemmas raised by large balance of payment deficits in spite of the clamor that arises over the allegedly negative impact on real wages and income distribution of the typical stabilization package of exchange rate devaluation and domestic contraction little rigorous study of the problem has been attempted since diaz alejandro s pathbreaking work of over two decades ago 12 in this article we present a model in which devaluations and domestic contraction2 lower the real wage and worsen the distribution of income and test that hypothesis for nine latin american countries for the theoretical presentation of our argument we construct a pair of aggregate supply curves one modeling labor supply along classical lines the other utilizing what is called the new classical macroeconomics the demand side is composed alternatively of a straightforward function representing changing domestic demand or of formulations of devaluations utilizing either of two markedly different assumptions about what happens to the money supply although these models have different implications about what happens to aggregate output 47 they all agree as to the effects on real wages a brief argument is then presented as to why changes in real wages should determine changes in labor s share of output or the functional distribution of income empirical tests support our hypotheses we also discuss the relation between labor s share and the size distribution of income and the broader question of intersectoral income redistribution due to these demand shifts we end the paper with some concluding remarks on related issues

exchange rate indexation in a monetary model theory and evidence abstract using a familiar monetary model with nontraded goods we derive the stability properties of the price level and reserve stock when the exchange rate is partially or completely indexed to the home price level divided by foreign prices in the stable case it is shown that indexing results in a system with properties of both fixed and flexible regimes our method is to impose conditions of short run but not long run equilibrium in a discrete period model the model is tested with monthly data from brazil

when does the bond price reaction to earnings announcements predict future stock returns abstract in this paper i show that the bond price reaction to earnings announcements has predictive power for post announcement stock returns and that this predictive ability is driven by the bonds of non investment grade firms i find that bonds predictive ability is more pronounced in firms that have a lower level of institutional shareholder ownership and whose bonds are more liquid this paper enhances our understanding of the relation between the stock and bond markets and complements the literature which documents whether and under what circumstances various accounting based measures and financial statement components predict post announcement stock returns

demand for international reserves and exchange rate intervention policy in an adjustable peg economy abstract this paper develops and estimates a model of the joint determination of the official and black market exchange rates private and government demand for international reserves and the rate of inflation under an adjustable peg system the framework presented combines and extends aspects of the monetary approach to the balance of payments and exchange rate determination with the theory of the demand for international reserves the role of expectations about devaluation is taken into account the model is estimated by full information maximum likelihood on the basis of quarterly data for turkey

survey evidence on diffusion of interest and information among investors abstract questionnaire surveys of institutional and individual investors were undertaken to learn about patterns of communications it was found that direct interpersonal communications are very important in investor decisions questions elicited what fraction of investors were unsystematic and allowed themselves to be influenced by word of mouth communications or other salient stimuli randomly sampled investors were studied as well as investors in stocks whose price had recently increased dramatically contagion or epidemic models of financial markets are proposed in which interest in individual stocks is spread by word of mouth the survey evidence is interpreted as supporting such models

evaluating the impact of tax for fee reform fei gai shui on water resources and agriculture production in the zhanghe irrigation system china this article questions the effectiveness and viability of rural tax for fee reform fei gai shui on water resources and agriculture production taking the zhanghe irrigation system of china as a case study example the fei gai shui reform has been heralded as a possible solution for reducing the excessive fiscal burden on peasants while the reform may achieve in relieving peasant burdens significantly the initial impact of fei gai shui on water resources and agricultural production indicate least satisfactory trends the policy shows significant impact on rice yield and area it might also have profound impact on cropping pattern but it has yet to be seen dependence on local water resources such as ponds show significant increase after fei gai shui as it discouraged farmers to rely on regional water sources although the lower regional water use under fei gai shui reduced the water charges paid by farmers the savings were mostly offset by increasing pumping costs in accessing water from local ponds without any adjustments the fei gai shui is likely to cause serious predicament in agricultural sector it is visioned that local water resources such as water ponds will continue to play an important role in sustaining agricultural production

global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change food policy should serve humanity by advancing the humane goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger however these goals have recently been challenged by emerging forces including climate change water scarcity the energy crisis as well as the credit crisis this paper analyses the overall role of these forces and population growth in redefining global food security specifically global water supply and demand as well as the linkages between water supply and food security are examined the analysis reveals that the water for food security situation is intricate and might get daunting if no action is taken investments are needed today for enhancing future food security this requires action on several fronts including tackling climate change preserving land and conserving water reducing the energy footprint in food systems developing and adopting climate resilient varieties modernising irrigation infrastructure shoring up domestic food supplies reforming international food trade and responding to other global challenges

reforms investment and poverty in rural china shenggen faninternational food policy research institute and institute of agriculturaleconomics of the chinese academy of agricultural scienceslinxiu zhangcenter for chinese agricultural policy of the chinese academy of sciencesxiaobo zhanginternational food policy research institutei introductionchina is one of the few countries in the developing world that has madeprogress in reducing its total number of poor over the past 25 years

us money supply and global business cycles 1979 2009 this article investigates the effects of the us money supply shock on global business cycles by employing a global vector autoregressive model containing 26 economies over the period from 1979q2 to 2009q4 the us money supply is incorporated as an endogenous variable for the us and a global factor for other economies when a positive us money supply shock hits the global economy developed economies such as the us euro area and the uk will have neither real output decline nor inflation pressure while china and some other developing countries are going to have a significant decline of real gdp the international spillover of the liquidity effect exists the global effects of quantitative easing are discussed as well

generating disaggregated poverty maps an application to vietnam abstract previous research shows that geographic targeting in poverty programs is not accurate unless the geographic units are small household surveys however can rarely estimate poverty rates for more than 5 10 regions this study uses data from vietnam to illustrate a method for generating disaggregated poverty maps first the relationship between poverty and household indicators is estimated using survey data then census data on those same indicators are used to estimate poverty rates for each of the 543 rural districts the results indicate that vietnamese poverty is concentrated in the north and in districts furthest from the coast and cities

dynamics of monetary intervention under managed floating abstract this paper studies the dynamics of the money stock in the presence of official intervention under fixed exchange rates and certain types of managed floating in response to an external disturbance the long run change in the stock of domestic currency is found to be the largest in magnitude under fixed rates however in the context of the present model managed floating may entail relatively larger short run movements this is the case when foreign disturbances originate in the commodity market and under certain conditions even if they originate in the asset market

expectations management and stock returns we establish a link between firms managing investors performance expectations earnings announcement premiums and cyclical patterns i e seasonalities in returns firms that are more likely to manage expectations toward beatable levels predictably earn lower returns before and higher returns during their earnings announcements this pattern repeats across firms fiscal quarters suggesting firms manufacture positive surprises by negatively biasing investors expectations ahead of announcing earnings we corroborate these findings using non price based outcomes indicative of expectations management together our findings are consistent with the pressure for firms to meet earnings targets shaping the cross section of firms stock returns

understanding the numbers game abstract two well known stylized facts on earnings management are that the earnings surprise distribution has a discontinuity at zero and that positive earnings surprises are associated with positive abnormal returns we link these two facts in a model of the earnings management decision in which the manager trades off the capital market benefits of meeting earnings benchmarks against the costs of manipulation we develop a new structural methodology to estimate the model and uncover the unobserved cost function the estimated model parameters yield the percentage of manipulating firms magnitude of manipulation noise in manipulation and sufficient statistics to evaluate proxies for identifying firms suspected of manipulation finally we use the sarbanes oxley act as a policy experiment and find that by increasing costs the act reduced equilibrium earnings management by 36 this reduction occurred despite an increase in benefits consistent with the market rationally becoming less skeptical of firms that just meet benchmarks