stopping agents from cheating abstract when a principal hires two or more agents to work in a correlated environment each agent s reward will depend on the other s performance unfortunately with just the usual optimal incentive constrained contracts being offered the agents strictly prefer to play equilibrium strategies other than those desired by the principal they cheat however the principal can use a more subtle contractual mechanism to stop them from cheating at no extra cost this mechanism uses one agent to police the other and exploits certain properties of the optimal contracts

bank runs liquidity costs and investment distortions abstract in this paper we extend the diamond and dybvig 1983 model of intermediation to study further the conditions under which bank runs can occur and to consider how private parties might adjust to the existence of bank run equilibria we provide weaker necessary conditions for runs we then characterize how banks respond to the possibility of runs in their design of deposit contracts and investment decisions banks might choose to offer contracts that prevent runs but under some conditions the second best contracts will involve accepting some risk of runs in order to achieve higher expected returns from their investments

implementing efficient allocations in a model of financial intermediation abstract in a finite trader version of the diamond and dybvig j polit econ 91 1983 401 model the ex ante efficient allocation is implementable by a direct mechanism i e each trader announces the type of his own ex post preference in which truthful revelation is the strictly dominant strategy for each trader when the model is modified by formalizing the sequential service constraint cf wallace fed reserve bank minneapolis quart rev 12 1988 3 the truth telling equilibrium implements the symmetric ex ante efficient allocation with respect to iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies

temporary boycotts as self fulfilling disruptions of markets abstract this paper demonstrates how equilibrium involving anticipated boycotts and actual boycotts can occur even though consumers are negligible and only care about the price they pay and the timing of purchase the model is a two period durable goods monopoly game with demand uncertainty first a non boycott equilibrium is characterized under regularity assumptions ruling out multiplicative uncertainty there are additional equilibria in which the firm sets a low price in period 0 based on the anticipation that consumers will boycott whenever the price exceeds a threshold also the augmented game with a publicly observed sunspot has equilibria in which boycotts occur on the equilibrium path with positive probability

evaluating credit risk and loan performance in online peer to peer p2p lending online peer to peer p2p lending has emerged recently this micro loan market could offer certain benefits to both borrowers and lenders using data from the lending club which is one of the popular online p2p lending houses this article explores the p2p loan characteristics evaluates their credit risk and measures loan performances we find that credit grade debt to income ratio fico score and revolving line utilization play an important role in loan defaults loans with lower credit grade and longer duration are associated with high mortality rate the result is consistent with the cox proportional hazard test which suggests that the hazard rate or the likelihood of the loan default increases with the credit risk of the borrowers finally we find that higher interest rates charged on the high risk borrowers are not enough to compensate for higher probability of the loan default the lending club must find ways to attract high fico score and high income borrowers in order to sustain their businesses

on avoiding bank runs abstract can bank runs be avoided and should they be avoided i analyze a banking environment where bank runs can occur as a result of negative signals about the bank s investments in this environment banks can make sure that runs do not occur by designing the deposit contract appropriately i show that there are conditions under which it is profit maximizing for the bank to avoid runs and others under which occasional runs are part of optimal bank behavior i also compare the banking arrangement to an arrangement based on trading in equity

evaluating borrower s default risk in peer to peer lending evidence from a lending platform in china recent years have witnessed the popularity of online peer to peer lending which allows individuals to borrow from and lend to each other on an internet based platform using data from a large p2p

banking as the provision of liquidity this article represents a model economy in which demand deposits represent the optimal financial intermediation because these demand deposits are backed in part by an illiquid asset the in termediary bank is subject to panics in which each agent ration ally decides to withdraw his deposits making all worse off banks ca n prevent panics only through a distortion of the optimal contract t he government can prevent panics without this distortion by guarantee ing the return from deposits the moral hazard introduced by this dep osit insurance induces the government to regulate the intermediary s portfolio and returns copyright 1988 by the university of chicago

financial fragility and over the counter markets abstract this paper studies the interaction between financial fragility and over the counter otc markets i model the financial sector as a large number of investors divided into different groups which i interpret as financial institutions and a large number of dealers financial institutions and dealers trade assets in an otc market a la duffie et al 2005 and lagos and rocheteau 2009 investors receive privately observed preference shocks and financial institutions use the balanced team mechanism proposed by athey and segal 2013 to implement an efficient risk sharing arrangement among their investors when the market is liquid in the sense that search and bargaining are small frictions i show that the economy is likely to have a unique equilibrium and therefore is not fragile when these frictions are severe a run equilibrium exists investors announce low valuation of assets because they believe everyone else in their financial institution is doing the same conditional on bank runs existing the welfare impact of the search friction is ambiguous during runs trade is inefficient and as a result a friction that reduces trade during runs has the potential to improve welfare this result is in sharp contrast with the existing literature which suggests that search friction has a negative impact on welfare

the role of independence in the green lin diamond dybvig model abstract green and lin study a version of the diamond dybvig model with a finite number of agents independence independent determination of each agent s type and sequential service for special preferences they show that the ex ante first best allocation is the unique equilibrium outcome of the model with private information about types via a simple argument it is shown that uniqueness of the truth telling equilibrium holds for general preferences and in particular for a constrained efficient allocation whether first best or not the crucial assumption is independence

bank incentives contract design and bank runs abstract we study the diamond dybvig bank runs deposit insurance and liquidity j polit econ 91 1983 401 419 model as developed in green and lin implementing efficient allocations in a model of financial intermediation j econ theory 109 2003 1 23 and peck and shell equilibrium bank runs j polit econ 111 2003 103 123 we dispense with the notion of a bank as a coalition of depositors instead our bank is a self interested agent with a technological advantage in record keeping we examine the implications of the resulting agency problem for the design of bank contracts and the possibility of bank run equilibria for a special case we discover that the agency problem may or may not simplify the qualitative structure of bank liabilities we also find that the uniqueness result in green and lin implementing efficient allocations in a model of financial intermediation j econ theory 109 2003 1 23 is robust to our form of agency but that the non uniqueness result in peck and shell equilibrium bank runs j polit econ 111 2003 103 123 is not

a bank runs model with a continuum of types abstract we consider a bank runs model a la diamond and dybvig 1983 3 with a continuum of agent types indexed by the degree of patience much of our understanding based on the two type model must be modified the endogenous determination of a cutoff type is central to the analysis in the case where the bank can credibly commit to a contract the optimal contract results in socially excessive early withdrawals in every equilibrium of the post deposit subgame thus even at the best equilibrium the socially efficient outcome is not achieved and agents behavior exhibits features of a bank run in the case where commitment is not possible there are strictly more early withdrawals and strictly lower welfare than the full commitment equilibrium

banking panics and policy responses we study how banking panics unfold in av ersion of the diamond and dybvig 1983 model with limited commitment as is well known the banking authority could eliminate the possibility of a run on the banking system by committing to suspend payments to depositors if a run were to start once a run is under way however the banking authority will choose to reschedule rather than suspend payments we construct equilibria in which depositors run on the banking system with positive probability and we show that an equilibrium bank run in this setting is necessarily partial with only some depositors participating we also show that a run naturally occurs in waves with each wave of withdrawals prompting a further policy response from the banking authority the number of waves that occur in equilibrium is stochastic and can be arbitrarily large

which side of the coin the regional governance of science and innovation koschatzky k kroll h 2007 which side of the coin the regional governance of science and innovation regional studies 41 1115 1127 the paper deals with the impact of recent trends in the devolution of political powers in science technology and innovation policies it argues that some problems are associated with this regionalization because the emerging multi level governance structures turn political action into a complex bargaining process between actor groups with partially conflicting interests the paper sketches the theoretical potentials and limitations of science technology and innovation policy designed at the regional level based on regional evidence from the german federal system it demonstrates which policy aspects are suitable for devolution to regional governments and how they can be integrated in multi level governance structures koschatzky k et kroll h 2007 quelle facette du probleme la gouvernance reginale de la science et de l innovation regional studies 41 1115 1127

a model of a systemic bank run abstract this paper provides a model of the view that the 2008 financial crisis is reminiscent of a bank run focussing on six stylized key features in particular core financial institutions have invested their funds in asset backed securities rather than committed to long term projects in distress these can potentially be sold to a large pool of outside investors at steep discounts i consider two different motives for outside investors and their interaction with banks trading asset backed securities uncertainty aversion versus adverse selection i shall argue that the version with uncertainty averse investors is more consistent with the stylized facts than the adverse selection perspective in the former the crisis deepens the larger the market share of distressed core banks while a run becomes less likely instead as a result in the adverse selection version therefore the outright purchase of troubled assets by the government at prices above current market prices may both alleviate the financial crises as well as provide tax payers with returns above those for safe securities

distinguishing panics and information based bank runs welfare and policy implications in this paper we contrast panics and information based bank runs in an effort to provide a robust and empirically plausible model of how bank runs are triggered the model of information based runs is characterized by two sided asymmetric information the bank cannot observe the true liquidity needs of the depositors while depositors are asymmetrically informed about bank asset quality we also examine the relative degrees of risk sharing provided by bank deposit contracts and traded equity contracts we show that the choice of deposit or equity depends on the attributes of and information about the underlying investment returns

bank runs as an equilibrium phenomenon a standard demand deposit contract in which individuals are entitled to their full deposit at any time provided the bank is solvent is analyzed in a context in which there are no exogenous events on which agents condition their behavior and a unique equilibrium involving a bank run with positive probability is shown to exist

unique implementation of incentive contracts with many agents in this paper we consider the problem of implementation when a principal hires many agents and is not able to monitor their actions we distinguish two cases i when actions are mutually observable among agents ii when actions are not observable at all in i there is a mechanism in which the first best arises as a unique perfect equilibrium in ii we show by two examples that typically there are multiple equilibria if the principal merely offers a set of optimal sharing rules however we prove that the principal can use these optimal sharing rules as a starting point and construct a multi stage mechanism that has a unique second best perfect bayesian equilibrium

the golden thread of innovation and northern ireland s evolving regional innovation system c ooke p r oper s and w ylie p 2003 the golden thread of innovation and northern ireland s evolving regional innovation system reg studies 37 365 379 the title embodies the belief expressed in 2000 by northern ireland s economic development minister sir reg empey that innovation is the golden thread that must run through its economy and policy for the hitherto troubled part of the uk to recover its historic economic dynamism the paper reports a study of northern ireland s innovation performance in light of comparative data and through the lens of the regional innovation systems approach to analysis and strategy it is shown that business expenditure on innovation inputs like r d has risen but that a long tail of innovation under achievers remains evident three categories of firm are shown to be innovative and these are swiftly developing systemic interaction with a support infrastructure led by venture capital that is agile in meeting growth requirements of indigenous innovators t

optimal diamond dybvig mechanism in large economies with aggregate uncertainty abstract this paper characterizes the direct mechanism which implements the constrained optimal outcome in a version of diamond and dybvig 1983 with aggregate uncertainty and a continuum of agents using this result numerical examples where the best direct mechanism has a bank run equilibrium are easily obtained

pricing in the online invoice trading market first empirical evidence abstract in recent years online invoice trading has gained importance in providing smes with short term financing in this paper we present first empirical evidence concerning the question whether the risk of payment difficulties is appropriately reflected in the pricing variables to this end we investigate predictors of default of online invoice trading platforms we analyze both the probability of default and the loss rate and find that the interest rate the duration and the percentage funded have good predictive power furthermore we show that the pricing mechanism auction vs fixed prices helps to explain defaults on online invoice trading platforms

run equilibria in the green lin model of financial intermediation abstract we study the green lin model of financial intermediation e j green p lin implementing efficient allocations in a model of financial intermediation j econ theory 109 2003 1 23 under a more general specification of the distribution of types across agents we derive the efficient allocation in closed form we show that in some cases the intermediary cannot uniquely implement the efficient allocation using a direct revelation mechanism in these cases the mechanism also admits an equilibrium in which some but not all agents run on the intermediary and withdraw their funds regardless of their true liquidity needs in other words self fulfilling runs can arise in a generalized green lin model and these runs are necessarily partial with only some agents participating

the role of demandable debt in structuring optimal banking arrangements demandable debt finance by banks warrants explanation because it entails costs of bank suspension liquidation and idle reserve holdings an explanation is developed in which demandable debt provides incentive compatible intermediation where the banker has comparative advantage in allocating investment funds but may act against the interests of uninformed depositors demandable debt attracts funds by giving depositors an option to force liquidation its usefulness in transacting follows from information sharing between monitors and nonmonitors copyright 1991 by american economic association

economic growth liquidity and bank runs abstract we construct an endogenous growth model in which bank runs occur with positive probability in equilibrium in this setting a bank run has a permanent effect on the levels of the capital stock and of output in addition the possibility of a run changes the portfolio choices of depositors and of banks and thereby affects the long run growth rate these facts imply that both the occurrence of a run and the mere possibility of runs in a given period have a large impact on all future periods a bank run in our model is triggered by sunspots and we consider two different equilibrium selection rules in the first a run occurs with a fixed exogenous probability while in the second the probability of a run is influenced by banks portfolio choices we show that when the choices of an individual bank affect the probability of a run on that bank the economy both grows faster and experiences fewer runs

equivalence between the diamond dybvig banking model and the optimal income taxation model abstract it is shown that the diamond dybvig journal of political economy 96 1983 768 banking model with a continuum of types of agents has the same analytical structure as the standard optimal income taxation model review of economic studies 38 1971 175 review of economic studies 43 1976 261 insights from the income taxation literature immediately imply that a bank run equilibrium exists in the banking model as long as the long term project is sufficiently costly to liquidate

experimental evidence of bank runs as pure coordination failures abstract we investigate how coordination requirement measured by the coordination parameter affects the occurrence of miscoordination based bank runs in controlled laboratory environments we identify an indeterminacy region of the coordination parameter such that games with the parameter within the region have varying coordination outcomes and exhibit persistent path dependence experimental economies with the parameter above below the region stay close or converge to the run non run equilibrium switches between the two equilibria occur even with fixed economic fundamentals the experimental results are well accounted for by a version of the evolutionary algorithm that uses experimentation rates estimated from the experimental data

investor churn analysis in a p2p lending market this study aims to determine why investors leave a peer to peer p2p lending market and the pathways through which several factors affect investor churn to this end this study performed cox pro

liquidity uncertainty and intermediation the paper performs a welfare comparison between demand deposit and equity contracts in the presence of intrinsic aggregate uncertainty in this framework the welfare dominance of deposit contracts emerges under corner preferences it is shown that aggregate uncertainty creates high price volatility of ex dividend equity claims traded in a secondary market and the resulting consumption allocations offer less risk sharing opportunities to risk averse consumers than tailor made deposit contracts the contingency of early payoffs on depositors withdrawal order reinforces the welfare performance of deposit contracts whereas costly liquidation of productive long term investments deteriorates their welfare performance relative to equity contracts

on the effects of deposit insurance and observability on bank runs an experimental study we study the effects of deposit insurance and observability of previous actions on the emergence of bank runs by means of a controlled laboratory experiment we consider three depositors in the line of a bank who decide between withdrawing or keeping their money deposited we have three treatments with different levels of deposit insurance which reflect the losses a depositor may incur in the case of a bank run we find that different levels of deposit insurance and the possibility of observing other depositors actions affect the likelihood of bank runs when decisions are not observable higher levels of deposit insurance decrease the probability of bank runs when decisions are observable this need not to be the case these results suggest that i observability might be considered as a partial substitute of deposit insurance and ii the optimal deposit insurance should take into account the degree of observability

trust and credit the role of appearance in peer to peer lending although it is well known that appearance based impressions affect labor market and election outcomes little is known about the role appearance plays in financial transactions we address this question using photographs of potential borrowers from a peer to peer lending site consistent with the trust intensive nature of lending we find that borrowers who appear more trustworthy have higher probabilities of having their loans funded moreover borrowers who appear more trustworthy indeed have better credit scores and default less often overall our findings suggest that impressions of trustworthiness matter in financial transactions as they predict investor as well as borrower behavior a man i do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in christendom john pierpont morgan 1913 the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

equilibrium bank runs we analyze a banking system in which the class of feasible deposit contracts or mechanisms is broad the mechanisms must satisfy a sequential service constraint but partial or full suspension of convertibility is allowed consumers must be willing to deposit ex ante we show by examples that under the so called optimal contract the postdeposit game can have a run equilibrium given a propensity to run triggered by sunspots the optimal contract for the full predeposit game can be consistent with runs that occur with positive probability thus the diamond dybvig framework can explain bank runs as emerging in equilibrium under the optimal deposit contract

banking and insurance abstract this paper studies the economic role of financial institutions in economies where agents incomes are subject to privately observable idiosyncratic random events the information structure precludes conventional insurance arrangements however a financial institution perhaps best viewed as a savings bank can provide partial insurance by generating a time pattern of deposit returns that redistributes wealth from agents with high incomes to those with low incomes resulting in a level of expected utility higher than that achievable in simple security markets insurance is incomplete because the bank faces a tradeoff between provision of insurance and maintenance of private incentives

on bayesian implementable allocations this paper identifies several social choice correspondences which are and are not fully implementable in economic environments when agents are incompletely informed about the environment we show that in contrast to results in the case of complete information neither efficient allocations nor core allocations define implementable social choice correspondences we also identify conditions under which the rational expectations equilibrium correspondence is implementable we extend the concepts of fair allocations and lindahl allocations to economies with incomplete information and show that envy free allocations and lindahl allocations are implementable under some conditions while fair allocations are not

bailouts and financial fragility how does the belief that policymakers will bail out investors in the event of a crisis affect the allocation of resources and the stability of the financial system i study this question in a model of financial intermediation with limited commitment when a crisis occurs the efficient policy response is to use public resources to augment the private consumption of those investors facing losses the anticipation of such a bailout distorts ex ante incentives leading intermediaries to choose arrangements with excessive illiquidity and thereby increasing financial fragility prohibiting bailouts is not necessarily desirable however it induces intermediaries to become too liquid from a social point of view and may in addition leave the economy more susceptible to a crisis a policy of taxing short term liabilities in contrast can correct the incentive problem while improving financial stability

could making banks hold only liquid assets induce bank runs abstract restrictions placed on bank portfolios are analyzed in a banking model designed to capture the role of checking accounts in facilitating transactions forcing banks to hold only liquid assets creates the incentive for liquidity based runs even when a run does not occur welfare is reduced as a result of overinvestment in the liquid asset

innovation persistence survey and case study evidence abstract evidence on the persistence of innovation sheds light on the nature of the innovation process and can guide appropriate policy development this paper examines innovation persistence in ireland and northern ireland using complementary quantitative and case study approaches panel data derived from innovation surveys is used and suggests very different results to previous analyses of innovation persistence primarily based on patents data product and process innovation are found to exhibit strong general persistence but we find no evidence that persistence is stronger among highly active innovators our quantitative evidence is most strongly consistent with a process of cumulative accumulation at plant level our case studies highlight a number of factors which can either interrupt or stimulate this process including market volatility plants organisational context and regulatory changes notably however the balance of influences on product and process innovation persistence differs with product innovation persistence linked more strongly to strategic factors and process changes more often driven by market pressures