modelling long run scenarios this paper intends to draw overall lessons from a long term study on co2 emission in france a country with a rather low energy gdp ration and in which transition to non fossil based production of electricity has been achieved more generally it points out the importance of possible bifurcation effects and draws methodological and policy implications from these statements it discusses modelling approaches to the linkages between energy and the rest of economy and addresses the issue of difficulties in cost assessment analysis in the presence of several baseline scenarios finally it proposes a more encompassing definition of no regrets policies

the role of energy in productivity growth the objective of this paper is to analyze the role of energy in the growth of productivity the special significance of energy in economic growth was first established in the classic study energy and the american economy 1850 1975 by sam schurr and his associates 1960 at resources for the future for the period from 1920 to 1955 schurr noted that energy intensity of production had fallen while both labor and total factor productivity were rising the simultaneous decline in energy intensity and labor intensity of production ruled out the possibility of explaining the growth of productivity solely on the basis of substitution of less expensive energy for more expensive labor since the quantity of both energy and labor inputs required for a given level of output had been reduced technical change is also a critical explanatory factor an alternative explanation for growth of output with declining energy and labor intensity required an examination of the character of technical change this examination was motivated by the fact that from 1920 to 1955 the utilization of electricity had expanded by a factor of more than ten while consumption of all other forms of energy only doubled the two key features of technical change during this period were that the thermal efficiency of conversion of fuels into electricity increased by a factor of three and that the unusual characteristics of electricity had made it possible to perform tasks in altogether different ways than if the fuels had to be used directly schurr 1983 p 3 schurr 1982 has recently extended the analysis of energy and the american economy through 1981 for the period through 1969 his conclusions are as follows although the inverse relationship between total factor productivity and energy intensity virtually disappeared during the 1953 1969 period it is still noteworthy that high rates of improvement in total factor productivity were essentially not associated with increases in energy intensity 1982 p 6 schurr 1982 has analyzed the experience of the u s economy in the aftermath of the oil embargo of 1973 he points out that energy intensity of production has fallen steadily since 1973 and that the rate of decline accelerated sharply after the second oil price shock in 1979 following the iranian revolution he goes on to point out that

measuring and assessing capacity utilization in the manufacturing sectors of nine oecd countries following a tradition established by cassels klein and hickman we employ the economic theory of cost and production and define economic capacity output as that output at which short and long run average total cost curves are tangent to one another capacity utilization cu rates are then computed as the ratio of actual to capacity output we implement this framework empirically by specifying and estimating a translog variable cost function for the manufacturing sectors of nine oecd countries we find that by the end of the historical sample the early 1980s pervasive and chronic excess capacity exists while the average cost consequence of excess capacity was relatively modest in the 1960s the burden increased considerably after opec i and after opec ii the premium was as large as 15 of average total costs we also find that electricity and fuel price increases had small impacts on capacity output relative to that from labor or capital finally we adjust conventional measures of multifactor productivity growth for changes in cu and find that the adjusted growth is larger after 1973 than that based on traditional procedures

is the energy led growth hypothesis valid new evidence from a sample of 85 countries abstract the energy growth literature contains a large number of discussions on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth the central debate focuses on whether energy consumption contributes or not to economic growth since it has direct implications for the formulation of strategic policies nevertheless current studies cannot provide a conclusive suggestion due to mixed causality results this inconclusive evidence is potentially attributed to model specifications and the stage of economic development of the countries under investigation hence this study attempts to empirically re investigate the validity of the energy led growth hypothesis using a different model specification and different stages of economic development for 85 selected countries around the globe overall although the causality results are mixed among countries we do find a systematic pattern in particular granger causality models with three and four variables are more likely to support the hypothesis compared to their counterparts that contain only two variables in addition both developed and developing countries are more likely to support the energy led growth hypothesis compared to the less developed or low income countries therefore causality results are very sensitive to the choice of the model specification along with the stages of economic development finally energy conservation policies should only focus on low income countries as these policies may not retard the process of economic growth

competition and substitutability in the swedish pharmaceuticals market substitution possibilities between brand name pharmaceuticals are analysed the analysis is based on data from three different markets the prescription drug market for beta blocking agents the over the counter market for purgatives and the hospital market for two pharmaceutical treatments for gastric ulcers the results indicate that there exist some substitution possibilities among the brand name drugs included in the study

discrete time mean cvar portfolio selection and time consistency induced term structure of the cvar abstract we investigate a discrete time mean risk portfolio selection problem where risk is measured by the conditional value at risk cvar a substantial challenge is the combination of a time inconsistent objective with an incomplete and dynamic model for the financial market we are able to solve this problem analytically by embedding the original time inconsistent problem into a family of time consistent expected utility maximization problems with a piecewise linear utility function the optimal investment strategy is a fully adaptive feedback policy and the cumulated amount invested in the risky assets is of a characteristic v shaped pattern as a function of the current wealth for the incomplete discrete time market considered herein the mean cvar efficient frontier is a straight line in the mean cvar plane and thus economically meaningful this contrasts the complete continuous time setting where the mean cvar efficient frontier is degenerate or does not exist at all we further solve an inverse investment problem where we investigate how mean cvar preferences need to adapt in order for the pre committed optimal strategy to remain optimal at any point in time our result shows that a pre committed mean cvar investor behaves like a naive mean cvar investor with a time increasing confidence level for the cvar who revises the investment decision at every point in time finally an empirical application of our results suggests that risk measured by the cvar might help to understand the long standing equity premium puzzle

on the causal dynamics between emissions nuclear energy renewable energy and economic growth this paper examines the causal relationship between co2 emissions nuclear energy consumption renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a group of 19 developed and developing countries for the period 1984 2007 using a panel error correction model the long run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant negative association between nuclear energy consumption and emissions but a statistically significant positive relationship between emissions and renewable energy consumption the results from the panel granger causality tests suggest that in the short run nuclear energy consumption plays an important role in reducing co2 emissions whereas renewable energy consumption does not contribute to reductions in emissions this may be due to the lack of adequate storage technology to overcome intermittent supply problems as a result electricity producers have to rely on emission generating energy sources to meet peak load demand

the asymmetric granger causality analysis between energy consumption and income in the united states abstract we investigated granger causality between variants of the energy consumption sources and gross domestic product gdp for the united state of america usa to accomplish this objective we utilized a recent approach of asymmetric granger causality developed by hatemi j for the period january 1973 october 2011 our results indicated presence of asymmetric granger causality between a few variants of energy consumption sources i e coal consumption cc natural gas consumption ng primary energy consumption pe and total renewable energy consumption tre and gdp all measured in growth rates additionally when positive shocks are analyzed we found the evidence of unidirectional granger causality running from gdp growth rate to growth rate of cc and from growth rate of total electricity end use ec to gdp growth rate additionally we find significant evidence of bidirectional granger causality between ng and gdp pe and gdp and tre and gdp all measured in growth rates however in case of negative shocks we find that the null hypothesis that growth rates in cc and tre do not granger cause gdp growth rate is rejected at 5 level of significance these results have important implications for research analysts as well as policy makers of the usa economy

risk premiums for decision regret some people find decision making under uncertainty difficult because they fear making the wrong decision wrong in the sense that the outcome of their chosen alternative proves to be worse than could have been achieved with another alternative these people may be willing to pay a premium to avoid consequences that produce this decision regret this paper continues an earlier investigation into the normative implications of decision regret and looks at situations where the joint probability distribution of consequences between alternatives is not specified at the time of the decision it includes a discussion of cases where the outcomes produced by alternatives not chosen are never resolved a consequence of this model of preferences for risky situations is that two components of risk aversion may be identified decreasing marginal value and regret aversion

loss aversion with a state dependent reference point this study investigates reference dependent choice with a stochastic state dependent reference point the optimal reference dependent solution equals the optimal consumption solution no loss aversion if the reference point is selected fully endogenously given that loss aversion is widespread we conclude that the reference point generally includes an important exogenously fixed component we develop a choice model in which adjustment costs can cause stickiness relative to an initial exogenous reference point using historical u s investment benchmark data we show that this model is consistent with diversification across bonds and stocks for a wide range of evaluation horizons despite the historically high risk premium of stocks compared to bonds this paper was accepted by peter wakker decision analysis

growth accounting with intermediate inputs and the transmission of technical change abstract the aggregate rate of total factor productivity growth tfpg when there are intermediate inputs can be expressed either as a weighted average or as a weighted sum of the sectoral rates depending on the choice of sectoral rates being weighted the agrument that there is a magnification effect due to the transmission of tfpg through the intersectoral flows among sectors is therefore to be more illusory than real

do overarching mitigation objectives dominate transport specific targets in the eu this research investigates if the stringent 2020 and 2050 overarching co2 mitigation objectives set out by the european union dominate its 2010 to 2020 targets specific to the transportation arena specifically its biofuel penetration objectives and gram co2per kilometre emission caps using a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model imaclim r we demonstrate that these overarching targets do not dominate the interim transportation targets when the carbon policy triggering compliance with the mitigation objectives boils down to the theoretical least cost option of uniform carbon pricing ground transportation is confirmed as quite insensitive to high carbon prices even when such prices are applied over a long term it is tempting to conclude that pursuing the mitigation objectives specific to transportation will impose unnecessary costs however because of the second best conditions prevailing in actual economies and of the risk of lock in in carbon intensive trajectories we conclude with the urgent need for some ambitious transport specific policy design research agenda

disentangling spillover effects of antibiotic consumption a spatial panel approach literature on socioeconomic determinants of antibiotic consumption in the community is limited to few countries using cross sectional data this article analyses regional variations in outpatient antibiotics in italy using a balanced panel dataset covering the period 2000 to 2008 we specify an econometric model in which antibiotic consumption depends upon demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population the supply of health care services in the community and antibiotic copayments the model is estimated by means of ordinary least squares ols techniques with fixed effects fe the implications of consumption externalities across geographical areas are investigated by means of spatial lag and spatial error models slfe and sefe we find significant and positive income elasticity and negative effects of copayments antibiotic use is also affected by the age structure of the population and the supply of community health care finally we find evidence of spatial dependency in the use of antibiotics across regions this suggests that regional policies e g public campaigns aimed at increasing efficiency in antibiotic consumption and controlling bacterial resistance may be influenced by policy makers in neighbouring regions there will be scope for a strategic and coordinated view of regional policies towards the use of antibiotics

demand systems and the true subindex of the cost of living for pharmaceuticals this paper investigates the demand for prescription pharmaceuticals at the retail level we use complete demand systems to investigate elasticity for major classes of pharmaceuticals we estimate both a regular and an inverse demand system using a differential version of the rotterdam model we find that both systems yield negative and statistically significant own price elasticities the results indicate that pharmaceutical demand curves are not perfectly inelastic as some industry commentators suggest we use the results of the complete demand system and a variant of a formula developed by balk 1990 to derive a cost of living subindex for retail pharmaceuticals we find that retail pharmaceutical prices using our index rise faster than wholesale prices calculated either by the bls or by the methods developed by berndt et al 1993

loss aversion and the demand for index insurance abstract this work analyzes if reference dependence and loss aversion can explain the puzzling low adoption rates of rainfall index insurance we present a model that predicts the impact of loss aversion on index insurance demand to vary with different levels of insurance understanding index insurance demand of farmers who are unaware of the loss hedging benefit that insurance provides decreases with loss aversion in contrast insurance demand of farmers who are aware of the loss hedging benefit increases with loss aversion the model further predicts that farmers who are unaware of the loss hedging benefit will not demand an even highly subsidized index insurance using data from a randomized controlled trial involving a sample of indian farmers we provide empirical support for our core conjecture that insurance understanding mitigates the negative impact of loss aversion on index insurance adoption

the impact of electric power on productivity according to the historical record the increased use of energy in general and electric power in particular stands as one of the key factors in productivity growth growth accountants however find little support for this view rejecting claims that the productivity slowdown can be attributed to the lower rate of growth of the energy input in us manufacturing in this study an attempt at reconciling the historical record with the empirical facts is made specifically the commonly used factor income shares in the relevant divisia input growth index are replaced by the estimated output input elasticities the latter attribute a considerably larger role to electric power than previous studies indicated these are then used to reevaluate the sources of growth in us manufacturing

review of economic growth and energy consumption a panel cointegration analysis for eu countries abstract this paper examines the long run relationship between energy consumption and real gdp including fixed capital and total employment for 18 eu countries from 1995 to 2012 the analysis was based on the panel unit root tests panel cointegration test and fully modified ordinary least squares fmols estimator and dynamic ordinary least squares dols estimator data were analyzed in three groups all sample visegrad countries v4 and old 14 eu countries indeed the results demonstrate that economic growth and the variables energy consumption gross fixed capital are cointegrated for the whole panel of countries as well as for the two selected groups of countries furthermore the panel fmols and dols estimators reveal that the relationship between energy consumption gross fixed capital and economic growth is positive

disappointment in decision making under uncertainty decision analysis requires that two equally desirable consequences should have the same utility and vice versa most analyses of financial decision making presume that two consequences with the same dollar outcome will be equally preferred however winning the top prize of 10 000 in a lottery may leave one much happier than receiving 10 000 as the lowest prize in a lottery this paper explores the implications of disappointment a psychological reaction caused by comparing the actual outcome of a lottery to one s prior expectations for decision making under uncertainty explicit recognition that decision makers may be paying a premium to avoid potential disappointment provides an interpretation for some known behavioral paradoxes and suggests that decision makers may be sensitive to the manner in which a lottery is resolved the concept of disappointment is integrated into utility theory in a prescriptive model

portfolio choice in personal equilibrium abstract this paper finds that in portfolio choice where reference point arises endogenously in personal equilibria investors behave as if they had a concave probability weighting function this finding establishes a link between the reference dependent utility and the rank dependent utility theories

a theory of disappointment aversion an axiomatic model of preferences over lotteries is developed it is shown that this model is consistent with the allais paradox includes expected utility theory as a special case and is only one parameter beta richer than the expected utility model allais paradox type behavior is identified with positive values of beta preferences with positive beta are said to be disappointment averse it is shown that risk aversion implies disappointment aversion and that the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion can be generalized in a straight forward manner to the current framework copyright 1991 by the econometric society

energy prices and productivity growth the sharp decline in economic growth since 1973 presents a problem comparable in scientific interest and social importance to the problem of unemployment in the great depression of the 1930s conventional methods of economic analysis have been tried and have been found to be inadequate this paper outlines a new framework for understanding the slowdown in economic growth we find that the fall in u s economic growth since 1973 has been due to the dramatic decline in productivity growth within the new framework we identify higher energy prices as an important determinant of the productivity slowdown

the demand for capital labor and energy in european manufacturing industry before and after the oil price shocks the price and substitution elasticities for factor inputs capital labor fuels and electricity are estimated for total manufacturing industry on the basis of a pooled crosscountry time series analysis for nine west european countries the impact of the economic disturbances in the 1970s on the price sensitivity of demand is analyzed by estimating a translog cost function for two separate periods 1960 72 and 1973 80 hicks neutral technical change is rejected for both periods the results indicate some quite significant changes in the elasticities over the two periods

renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies abstract increased economic growth and demand for energy in emerging economies is creating an opportunity for these countries to increase their usage of renewable energy this paper presents and estimates two empirical models of renewable energy consumption and income for a panel of emerging economies panel cointegration estimates show that increases in real per capita income have a positive and statistically significant impact on per capita renewable energy consumption in the long term a 1 increase in real income per capita increases the consumption of renewable energy per capita in emerging economies by approximately 3 5 long term renewable energy per capita consumption price elasticity estimates are approximately equal to 0 70

advertising and competition in the ethical pharmaceutical industry the case of antihypertensive drugs abstract this paper uses data on the majority of name brand antihypertensive drugs marketed in the united states during 1988 93 to test the hypothesis that advertising decreases the price elasticity of demand in the pharmaceutical industry this is the first study to directly estimate the effects of drug product promotion on the price elasticity of demand in this industry we find strong evidence of an advertising effect in particular detailing efforts the salient means for product promotion in this industry systematically lower price sensitivity given the inverse relationship between elasticity of demand and price it is likely that consumers pay higher prices as a result of the advertising that occurs in this industry our findings are thus consistent with hurwitz and caves who find evidence that advertising inhibits entry into this market but in contrast to earlier research that found no anticompetitive effect

characteristics of demand for pharmaceutical products an examination of four cephalosporins we model demand for four cephalosporins and compute own and cross price elasticities between branded and generic versions of the four drugs we model demand as a multistage budgeting problem and we argue that such a model is appropriate to the multistage nature of the purchase of pharmaceutical products in particular the prescribing and dispensing stages we find quite high elasticities between generic substitutes and also significant elasticities between some therapeutic substitutes

pricing dynamics in the pharmaceutical industry pricing behaviour has traditionally been approached from the concept of long term static equilibrium this paper argues that this approach is inappropriate at least with respect to the pharmaceutical market because new innovation and patent expiry lead to a continually changing environment a theoretical analysis argues that price change will depend on the age of the therapeutic class the degree of brand loyalty the extent to which it is sold over the counter rather than on prescription and measures of competition the empirical results based on an analysis of the leading twenty five therapeutic class of pharmaceuticals in the usa the uk west germany and france over the period 1981 1988 tends to support the theoretical conclusions although it would appear that government controls in the uk are distorting profit maximizing behaviour more than in the other three countries

reference dependent subjective expected utility abstract a reference dependent generalisation of subjective expected utility theory is presented in this theory preferences between acts depend both on final outcomes and on reference points which may be uncertain acts it is characterised by a set of axioms in a savage style framework a restricted form of the theory separates attitudes to end states encoded in a satisfaction function from attitudes to gains and losses of satisfaction given weak additional assumptions the restricted theory excludes cycles of choice explains observed disparities between willingness to pay and willingness to accept valuations of lotteries and predicts preference reversal

modelling pharmaceutical price changes in germany a function of competition and regulation in this article price changes for pharmaceuticals in germany are modelled as a function of regulation and competition changes in the regulatory environment and in the competitive environment of a product are taken into account to follow the hierarchical structure a four level random intercept model was constructed price changes were allowed to vary randomly between drug classes between different substances within a drug class and between different manufacturers of a substance this study provides evidence that two policy measures reference pricing and temporary price freezes succeeded in reducing prices in germany between january 2004 and june 2006 for off patent substances depending on the competition faced by a drug the effect of competition can be greater than the effect of regulation the study therefore not only demonstrates the importance of competition between and within drug classes it also provides evidence that generic entry has substantial effects on the prices of branded p

renewable energy and macroeconomic efficiency of oecd and non oecd economies abstract this article analyzes the effects of renewable energy on the technical efficiency of 45 economies during the 2001 2002 period through data envelopment analysis dea in our dea model labor capital stock and energy consumption are the three inputs and real gdp is the single output increasing the use of renewable energy improves an economy s technical efficiency conversely increasing the input of traditional energy decreases technical efficiency compared to non oecd economies oecd economies have higher technical efficiency and a higher share of geothermal solar tide and wind fuels in renewable energy however non oecd economies have a higher share of renewable energy in their total energy supply than oecd economies

government expenditure and economic growth in the developed countries 1952 76 in the past decade or more the pace of economic growth has slowed considerably and the share of government expenditure in national product has increased considerably the average annual growth rate of per capita gdp for the 16 most important developed market economies was 6 3 from 1955 73 and 2 0 from 1973 79 the average share of government in gdp went from 27 in 1955 to 34 in 1970 to 43 in 1979 2 the simple correlation proves nothing but it suggests the growth of government might be one of the causes of the slowdown many economists have theorized that government production is staticly less efficient than private sector production with competitive markets see

the effects of openness trade orientation and human capital on total factor productivity abstract we study the effects of openness trade orientation and human capital on total factor productivity for a pooled sample of developed and developing countries total factor productivity emerges from a parsimonious specification of the aggregate production function potential determinants of total factor productivity include measures of openness trade orientation and human capital higher openness benefits total factor productivity outward oriented countries experience higher total factor productivity over and above the positive effect of openness human capital generally contributes positively to total factor productivity in poor countries however human capital interacts with openness to achieve a positive effect

disappointment and dynamic consistency in choice under uncertainty the central proposition of disappointment theory is that an individual forms expectations about uncertain prospects and that if the actual consequence turns out to be worse than or better than that expectation the individual experiences a sensation of disappointment or elation generating a decrement or increment of utility which modifies the basic utility derived from the consequence by incorporating a simple disappointment elation function into a model of individual choice many observed violations of conventional expected utility axioms including violations of savage s sure thing principle and the isolation effect can be predicted and defended as rational and dynamically consistent behaviour

expo power utility a flexible form for absolute and relative risk aversion a new utility function which i call expo power is proposed that exhibits decreasing constant or increasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing or increasing relative risk aversion depending on parameter values numerical analysis suggests that the expo power function performs well in incorporating these risk preference structures and that arbitrary risk preference specifications may lead to biased risk response estimates

energy consumption and economic growth nexus in portugal italy greece spain and turkey an ardl bounds test approach 1965 2009 abstract the paper examines the nexus between primary energy consumption and growth in portugal italy greece spain and turkey pigst with annual time series data from 1965 to 2009 pigst are southern european economies which have experienced several episodes that make them of particular interest to the study of periods of economic expansion and stagnation an ardl bounds test approach is a suitable technique to examine energy growth nexus within the context of countries with both sporadic shocks outliers and permanent shocks structural breaks empirical results suggest bidirectional causality between energy and growth in both the long run and short run supporting the feedback hypothesis the results reveal themselves to be robust to panel framework an energy conservation policy will reduce gdp growth while a saving phenomenon is observed since one additional unit of product requires less than one unit of energy

is energy intensity important for the productivity growth of eet adopters abstract energy efficient technologies eet have attracted strong interest because of their role in reducing environmental damage their adoption however remains rather low while their impact on productivity is substantial and differentiating with respect to technological characteristics energy intensity being such an obvious characteristic could be employed to classify eet adopters thus giving rise to two heterogeneous technologies i e those corresponding to firms of low and high energy consumption hence this paper examines the impact of energy intensity on the productivity growth of firms adopting eet in varying time intervals through a metafrontier based framework while also decomposing that impact in terms of technical efficiency and scale efficiency changes the analysis is complemented by examining the role of firm specific characteristics on the productivity growth through linear regression

the impact of disaggregated energy on productivity abstract the issue of the productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s has received considerable analysis in the literature however the issue of the impact of energy on productivity is still debated this study contributes to the debate with the hope that some sight could be provided through disaggregating the factor input energy into two components a petroleum component and a non petroleum component by analysing labour productivity growth total factor productivity growth and labour intensity ratios the disaggregated energy component can be viewed as a major influence in explaining the productivity decline

international technological knowledge differences and economic growth comparisons usa versus west germany and sweden versus norway 1963 1988 the main interest in this paper is governed by the methodology for making evolutive growth comparisons in the international context the paper analysis differences in levels and changes of these levels of aggregate output between the above mentioned countries in terms of differences in factors input and levels of technological knowledge for the period 1963 1988 sources of economic growth in each country are also examined on an annual and average annual basis th conclusion is that technological knowledge differences between countries hold a central role in explaining output differences between them a slight overtake of the technological lead is observed in comparing sweden and norway between 1977 and 1985 when a recovery by sweden begining in 1986 is detected a certain part of the output differences between the us and west germany is explaining by the differences in technology between these two countries however capital intensity in the us is found to be almost double in 1988 and this accounts fo

does renewable and or non renewable energy consumption matter for total factor productivity tfp growth evidence from the brics abstract studies proved that output growth is mainly associated with the total factor productivity tfp growth and variables that affect the tfp have an important explanatory power on output in this regards the aim of this study is to examine the causal relationship between different types of energy consumption and tfp growth in the brics from 1992 to 2012 a panel bootstrap granger causality test by konya 2006 68 was employed to investigate the direction of possible connection between energy consumption and tfp growth results show that no remarkable causal link exists between renewable energy consumption and tfp growth in the brics however in the case of non renewables energy consumption creates a positive externality that contributes economic development in brazil and south africa by the growth of tfp as well as energy use itself in this respect policies that promote coal and non renewable electricity consumption in south africa and natural gas consumption in brazil may be beneficial for their economic development

economic potential of biomass based fuels for greenhouse gas emission mitigation use of biofuels diminishes fossil fuelcombustion thereby also reducing net greenhousegas emissions however subsidies are neededto make agricultural biofuel productioneconomically feasible to explore the economicpotential of biofuels in a greenhouse gasmitigation market we incorporate data onproduction and biofuel processing for thedesignated energy crops switchgrass hybridpoplar and willow in an u s agriculturalsector model along with data on traditionalcrop livestock production and processing andafforestation of cropland net emissioncoefficients on all included agriculturalpractices are estimated through crop growthsimulation models or taken from the literature potential emission mitigation policies ormarkets are simulated via hypothetical carbonprices at each carbon price level theagricultural sector model computes the newmarket equilibrium revealing agriculturalcommodity prices regionally specificproduction input use and welfare levels environmental impacts and adoption ofalternative management practices such asbiofuel production results indicate no rolefor biofuels below carbon prices of 40 perton of carbon equivalent at these incentivelevels emission reductions via reduced soiltillage and afforestation are more costefficient for carbon prices above 70 biofuels dominate all other agriculturalmitigation strategies

causes of the current stagflation since 1975 labour slack has been unusually high in the oecd countries and yet inflation has not diminished the less favourable mix of unemployment and rate of change of inflation which we call stagflation is explained by a fall in the feasible rate of growth of real wages unmatched by a reduction in the constant term in phillips curve to investigate this mechanism conventional wage and price equations are estimated for 19 countries and then used for simulation stagflation has been caused in roughly equal amounts by rising relative import prices and by the fall in the rate of productivity growth in the basic model the phillips curve is assumed not to adapt to falls in feasible real wage growth but in a final section an adaptive wage equation is estimated which confirms that the process of adaptation is slow

modeling production for general equilibrium analysis the purpose of this paper is to present econometric models of producer behavior suitable for incorporation into a general equilibrium model implementation of these models requires a time series of inter industry transactions tables second implementation requires methods for estimation of parameters in systems of nonlinear simultaneous equations finally the economic theory of producer behavior implies equality and inequality restrictions on the parameters that must be incorporated into the estimation we discuss an empirical application to modeling producer behavior in thirty six industrial sectors of the u s economy

additive general error models for production cost and derived demand or share systems many empirical studies of production specify a deterministic model of the firm derive the implied behavioral equations input demand or share system and then embed this system in a stochastic framework by tacking on linear error terms in contrast this paper proposes general error models gems in which the error specification is an integral part of the optimization model these models are the statistical embodiment of stigler s view that apparent observed inefficiencies reflect the investigator s ignorance of the true optimization problem additive gems are proposed and interpreted specification tests indicate that a translog additive gem is superior to the standard translog specification

ambiguity attitudes in a large representative sample using a theorem showing that matching probabilities of ambiguous events can capture ambiguity attitudes we introduce a tractable method for measuring ambiguity attitudes and apply it in a large representative sample in addition to ambiguity aversion we confirm an ambiguity component recently found in laboratory studies a insensitivity the tendency to treat subjective likelihoods as 50 50 thus overweighting extreme events our ambiguity measurements are associated with real economic decisions specifically a insensitivity is negatively related to stock market participation ambiguity aversion is also negatively related to stock market participation but only for subjects who perceive stock returns as highly ambiguous this paper was accepted by james smith decision analysis

an index of loss aversion to a considerable extent risk aversion as it is commonly observed is caused by loss aversion several indexes of loss aversion have been proposed in the literature the one proposed in this paper leads to a clear decomposition of risk attitude into three distinct components basic utility probability weighting and loss aversion the index is independent of the unit of payment the main theorem shows how the indexes of different decision makers can be compared through observed choices

dynamic trading with reference point adaptation and loss aversion we formalize the reference point adaptation process by relating it to a way people perceive prior gains and losses we then develop a dynamic trading model with reference point adaptation and loss aversion and derive its semi analytical solution the derived optimal stock holding has an asymmetric v shaped form with respect to prior outcomes and the related sensitivities are directly determined by the sensitivities of reference point shifts with respect to the outcomes we also find that the effects of reference point adaptation can be used to shed light on some well documented trading patterns e g house money break even and disposition effects

economic welfare impacts from renewable energy consumption the china experience over the last years renewable energy sources have increased their share on electricity generation of china due to environmental and security of supply concerns in this work author assesses the role of both the amount and share of renewable energy consumption in economic welfare using cobb douglas type production functions this assessment is carried out by multivariate ols and spss software for china from 1978 to 2008 results indicate that a 1 increase in renewable energy consumption rec increases real gdp by 0 120 gdp per capita by 0 162 per capita annual income of rural households by 0 444 and per capita annual income of urban households by 0 368 respectively the impact of renewable energy consumption share srec on economic welfare is insignificant and an increasing share of rec negatively affects economic welfare growth to a certain extent in this paper the cost structural demand accounting mechanism and policy reasons of renewable energy development are interpreted marginal effects analysis show that the shape of sound and robust renewable energy institutions and policies would matter for increasing the standards of economic welfare in the context of speeding up renewable energy development and increasing share of renewable energy consumption especially the goal oriented policy refinement should be addressed efficiently in improvement households income while increasing share of renewable energy consumption c 2011 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

an economic analysis of technology in the meat products industry the meat products industry underwent significant structural change during the last two decades the relocation and expansion of commercial cattle feeding stimulated development of new single species slaughtering facilities to replace older multi species plants an essentially new processing industry arose specializing in breaking and packaging carcasses this forward integration has significantly changed distribution methods of slaughtering and fabricating firms increased emphasis on coordination of inputs led to interest in backward integration from packing into cattle feeding the steer and heifer slaughtering sector which was decentralized and competitive in the 1950s has turned toward centralization and concentration although the largest firm accounted for only 13 of total u s steer and heifer slaughter in 1977 it had more than doubled its share since 1970 in 1978 this firm slaughtered more than twice as many steers and heifers as its nearest competitor in addi

confidence intervals for elasticity estimators in translog models this paper examines the distribution fu nctions of elasticity estimators in translog demand models the authors consider the normaland ratio of normals distributions and present confidence intervals for the elasticity estimators the results suggest that only elasticity estimato rs based on the means of the actual cost shares are likely to follow either the normal or ratio of normals distribution function examination of three published empirical studies demonstrates that inferences regarding the values of elasticities cannot be made from point estimates alone and suggests a trade off between the level of aggregation and the width of confidence intervals for the elasticit y estimators copyright 1986 by mit press

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

reference dependent risk attitudes we use koszegi and rabin s 2006 model of reference dependent utility and an extension of it that applies to decisions with delayed consequences to study preferences over monetary risk because our theory equates the reference point with recent probabilistic beliefs about outcomes it predicts specific ways in which the environment influences attitudes toward modest scale risk it replicates classical prospect theory including the prediction of distaste for insuring losses when exposure to risk is a surprise but implies first order risk aversion when a risk and the possibility of insuring it are anticipated a prior expectation to take on risk decreases aversion to both the anticipated and additional risk for large scale risk the model allows for standard consumption utility to dominate reference dependent gain loss utility generating nearly identical risk aversion across situations

energy consumption and gdp in turkey is there a co integration relationship energy consumption and gdp are expected to grow by 5 9 and 7 annually until 2025 in turkey this paper tries to unfold the linkage between energy consumption and gdp by undertaking a co integration analysis for turkey with annual data over the period 1970 2003 the analysis shows that energy consumption and gdp are co integrated this means that there is a possibly bi directional causality relationship between the two we establish that there is a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption indicating that energy saving would not harm economic growth in turkey in addition we find that energy consumption keeps on growing as long as the economy grows in turkey

productivity and cost gaps in manufacturing industries in u s japan and germany abstract the objective of this paper is to measure and explain the development of differences in productivity for five manufacturing industries of the u s japan and germany changes in total factor productivities and differences in technologies and the sources of those changes will be analyzed we extend the framework developed by jorgenson and nishimizu 1978 to the dual cost approach to reflect the efficiency aspect of productivity gaps in terms of cost disadvantages we employ translog cost functions for a description of productivity and cost efficiency gaps and for an econometric analysis of sources of catching up processes

productivity growth and energy consumption in the nigerian manufacturing sector a panel data analysis this paper examines the impact of efficiency in energy consumption on the growth in productivity in the nigerian manufacturing sector the study utilizes a panel data technique covering a period of substantial energy price reviews in nigeria the study shows that for most industries productivity growth has been energy using whereas in a few attempts have been made to switch productivity growth towards energy saving however it will take some time for the effect of current energy pricing policy to permeate the whole manufacturing sector due to the high cost required to invest in energy saving equipment especially in the face of a rapid decline in real income coupled with high product prices

energy consumption and economic growth in central america evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model abstract this study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for six central american countries over the period 1980 2004 within a multivariate framework given the relatively short span of the time series data a panel cointegration and error correction model is employed to infer the causal relationship based on the heterogeneous panel cointegration test by pedroni pedroni p 1999 critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 61 653 670 pedroni p 2004 panel cointegration asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the ppp hypothesis new results econometric theory 20 597 627 cointegration is present between real gdp energy consumption the labor force and real gross fixed capital formation with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the granger causality results indicate the presence of both short run and long run causality from energy consumption to economic growth which supports the growth hypothesis