wheat from chaff meta analysis as quantitative literature review abstract this paper presents and develops a quantitative method of literature reviewing and evaluating empirical research meta regression analysis or mra economics is theory driven yet we must learn empirically if economics is to advance mra offers a more objective statistical method to summarize our empirical knowledge and to explain the wide study to study variation in economic research mra is used to assess the evidence for ricardian equivalence and its findings are contrasted to those of conventional narrative review furthermore mra establishes a platform from which to distinguish genuine empirical effect from the exploitable specification error that infests applied econometrics

arbitrage boundaries treasury bills and covered interest parity abstract this paper uses the covered interest parity relationship to define upper and lower arbitrage boundaries on domestic treasury bill t bill rates adapting the methodology for estimating frontier functions empirical tests are specified to determine whether the arbitrage boundaries provide a binding constraint on the behavior of the domestic t bill rate empirical evidence is presented for the covered canadian t bill rate which indicates that at various times the us t bill rate has been a binding lower boundary and the euro us ollar deposit rate has provided a binding upper boundary

covered interest rate arbitrage in the interwar period and the keynes einzig conjecture keynes 1923 conjectured that deviations from covered interest rate parity would not be arbitraged unless a profit of at least a half of one percent on an annualized basis was available and that larger deviations would still be moderately persistent because of less than perfect elasticity of supply of arbitrage funds this two part conjecture was given further emphasis by other writers on this period notably einzig 1937 we apply nonlinear econometric techniques to a previously unexploited weekly data base for the 1920s london and new york markets and find strong support for the conjecture

the out of sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors a step beyond abstract a large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate however there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting future spot exchange rates and that exchange rate dynamics display nonlinearities this paper proposes a term structure forecasting model of exchange rates based on a regime switching vector equilibrium correction model which is novel in this context our model significantly outperforms both a random walk and to a lesser extent a linear term structure vector equilibrium correction model for four major dollar rates across a range of horizons

short run forecasting of the euro dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals abstract we propose a fundamentals based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies the model obtains good in sample fit and more importantly encouraging out of sample forecasting results at horizons ranging from one week to one month specifically we obtain statistically significant improvements upon the hard to beat random walk model using traditional statistical measures of forecasting error at all horizons moreover our model obtains a great improvement when we use the direction of change metric which has more economic relevance than other loss measures with this measure our model performs much better at all forecasting horizons than a naive model that predicts the exchange rate as an equal chance to go up or down with statistically significant improvements

optimal bank capital this article reports estimates of the long run costs and benefits of having banks fund more of their assets with loss absorbing capital or equity we model how shifts in funding affect required rates of return and how costs are influenced by the tax system we draw a clear distinction between costs to individual institutions private costs and overall economic or social costs we find that the amount of equity capital that is likely to be desirable for banks to use is very much larger than banks have used in recent years and also higher than targets agreed under the basel iii framework this article reports estimates of the long run costs and benefits of having banks fund more of their assets with loss absorbing capital by which we mean equity rather than debt the benefits come because a larger buffer of truly loss absorbing capital reduces the chance of banking crises which as both past history and recent events show generate substantial economic costs the offset to any such benefits comes in the form of potentially higher costs of intermediation of saving through the banking system the cost of funding bank lending might rise as equity replaces debt and such costs can be expected to be reflected in a higher interest rate charged to those who borrow from banks that in turn would tend to reduce the level of investment with potentially long lasting effects on the level of economic activity calibrating the size of these costs and benefits is important but far from

the forward premium puzzle in the interwar period and deviations from covered interest parity we revisit the forward premium puzzle in the interwar period and find that as the deviation from covered interest rate parity increases the coefficient on the forward premium in the standard fama regression tends towards zero

a note on interest parity and the supply of arbitrage funds the divergence of the actual forward premium on foreign exchange from that dictated by the principle of interest rate parity can arise from two separately identifiable causes 1 an equilibrium position as indicated by the interest parity principle has not been reached or 2 that the principle itself is not a correctly specified equilibrium condition it is the purpose of this note to offer a revised specification of the interest parity condition and to determine whether this version approximates more closely the actual premium as determined in the market it should be made clear however that this is a partial analysis and does not deal with the impact of other forces for example speculation on the forward premium as a result a complete model of the spot and forward markets for foreign exchange such as stein s 1965 is not attempted here in general the principle of interest parity maintains that in equilibrium

determination of the international maize price what is the growing role of brazil and ukraine this paper examines the relationships among maize prices for four countries to determine if newly emerging exporters brazil and ukraine influence the international price of maize our work focuses on each market s participation in the price discovery process rather than trying to determine a price leader we find that the united states plays the largest role in price discovery followed by argentina brazil and ukraine we also search for export thresholds and find that ukraine s contribution to price discovery rises slightly when an export threshold of 2 3 million tons is reached no export thresholds were found for brazil export thresholds for argentina were found but only have a minor impact on price relationships we also found that price relationships vary considerably across seasons of the year

theories of bank behavior under capital regulation abstract this paper reviews academic studies of bank capital regulation in an effort to evaluate the intellectual foundation for the imposition of the basel i and basel ii systems of risk based capital requirements the theoretical literature yields general agreement about the immediate effects of capital requirements on bank lending and loan rates and the longer term impacts on bank ratios of equity to total or risk adjusted assets this literature produces highly mixed predictions however regarding the effects of capital regulation on asset risk and overall safety and soundness for the banking system as a whole thus the intellectual foundation for the present capital regulation regime is not particularly strong the mixed conclusions in the academic literature on banking certainly do not provide unqualified support for moving to an even more stringent and costly system of capital requirements these widely ambiguous results do suggest however that assessing the implications of capital regulation for balance sheet risk and monitoring effort in diverse banking systems is an important agenda for future theoretical research in the banking area

price movements and price discovery in futures and cash markets r isk transfer and price discovery are two of the major contributions of futures markets to the organization of economic activity working 1962 evans 1978 p 80 and silber 1981 risk transfer refers to hedgers using futures contracts to shift price risk to others price discovery refers to the use of futures prices for pricing cash market transactions working 1948 wiese 1978 p 87 and lake 1978 p 161 the significance of both contributions depends upon a close relationship between the prices of futures contracts and cash commodities this paper examines the characteristics of price movements in cash or spot markets and futures markets for storable commodities section ii presents an analytical model of simultaneous price dynamics which suggests that over short intervals of time the correlation of price changes is a function of the elasticity of arbitrage between the physical commodity and its counterpart futures contract greater elasticity fosters more highly correlated price changes and thereby facilitates the risk transfer function the elasticity of supply of arbitrage services is constrained by among other things storage and transaction costs thus futures contracts will not in general provide perfect risk transfer facilities over short time horizons the essence of the price discovery function of futures markets hinges on whether new information is reflected first in changed futures prices or in changed cash prices hoffman 1932 pp 258259 the model in section ii provides a framework for analyzing whether one market is dominant in terms of information flows and price discovery in section iii we develop a model based on section ii which is appropriate for estimating the lead lag relationship between cash prices and futures prices section iv presents empirical estimates of the parameters of the model for seven different storable commodities wheat corn oats frozen orange juice concentrates copper gold and silver the cost of arbitrage between cash and futures differs across these commodities for this reason we are not surprised to find inter commodity differences in the correlation of short run price changes and in the substitutability of futures contracts for cash market positions with respect to the price discovery function of futures markets we find that while futures markets dominate cash markets cash prices do not merely echo futures prices there are reverse information flows from cash markets to futures markets as well

capital structure choice and company taxation a meta study this paper provides a quantitative review of the empirical literature on the tax impact on corporate debt financing synthesizing the evidence from 46 previous studies we find that this impact is substantial in particular the tax rate proxy determines the outcome of primary analyses measures like the simulated marginal tax rate graham 1996a avoid a downward bias in estimates for the debt response to tax moreover debt characteristics econometric specifications and the set of control variables affect tax effects accounting for misspecification biases by means of meta regressions we predict a marginal tax effect on the debt ratio of 0 3

stock markets banks and growth panel evidence this paper investigates the impact of stock markets and banks on economic growth using a panel data set for the period 1976 98 and applying recent gmm techniques developed for dynamic panels on balance we find that stock markets and banks positively influence economic growth and these findings are not due to potential biases induced by simultaneity omitted variables or unobserved country specific effects

industry growth and capital allocation does having a market or bank based system matter are market based or bank based financial systems better at financing the expansion of industries that depend heavily on external finance facilitating the formation of new establishments and improving the efficiency of capital allocation across industries we find evidence for neither the market based nor the bank based hypothesis while legal system efficiency and overall financial development boost industry growth new establishment formation and efficient capital allocation having a bank based or market based system per se does not seem to matter much

reexamining intraday simultaneity in stock index futures markets abstract this note examines three empirical examples involving intraday dynamic relationships associated with stock index futures markets researchers often employ a vector autoregressive var model to analyze such high frequency transactions data while such a model can provide useful information regarding the nature of causal priority inherent in the data it is not the proper model to investigate the structural relationships of interest because it omits the contemporaneous interaction on the other hand a var model specification which is altered to incorporate simultaneity may enable the data to reveal the structural relationships of interest

an analysis of price discovery between bitcoin futures and spot markets abstract this paper analyzes the bitcoin price discovery process we collect data on futures and spot prices for the period december 2017 to may 2018 and compute hasbrouck s information share and gonzalo and granger s common factor component to quantify the contribution of each market to the price discovery process both measures coincide in suggesting that the bitcoin futures market dominates the price discovery process we also find that both prices are driven by a common factor that is given by a weighted combination of the futures and spot market finally we observe that deviations from the equilibrium condition equating the futures and spot log price have predictive ability for the return on the bitcoin spot price but not on the futures price

how smooth is price discovery evidence from cross listed stock trading abstract the adjustment to parity can be nonlinear for a cross listed pair convergence may be quicker when the price deviation is sufficiently profitable we propose a threshold error correction model ecm to gauge the market respective information shares of canadian listings traded on the toronto stock exchange tsx and the new york stock exchange nyse since dynamics may alternatively be gradual we further generalize the threshold framework to a smooth transition ecm the empirical implications are as follows first the tsx and the nyse appear to have integrated over time second parity convergence accelerates upon discounts on the cross listings on the nyse third we find a larger feedback from the nyse if the price gap exceeds the threshold required arbitrage return fourth informed traders tend to cluster on the nyse upon discounts on the cross listings fifth information share and threshold are affected by the relative degree of private information market friction and liquidity measures firm level characteristics and aggregate risks

is tourism firm competitiveness driven by different internal or external specific factors new empirical evidence from spain abstract the quest to understand the multilevel antecedents of competitiveness has led to a separation of approaches on one side of the question are the environment theories that analyze the structural characteristics of the general and competitive environment on the other side are the resource based view and its extensions that highlight firm specific resources and capabilities as the main basis of firms competitiveness however in recent years the nature of competition and shifting economic conditions have given rise to new theoretical approaches that complement the assumptions underlying both environmental and firm theories specifically this study contributes by examining the regional environment effect the district effect and the strategic group effect through a study of 364 spanish tourism firms this research explores the relative importance of distinct external forces such as the general environment or country effect the regional effect the competitive environment or industry effect the district effect and internal factors such as the firm s tangible resources capabilities and strategy selection the results demonstrate that firms capabilities are more important than environment effects and tangible resources

covered interest arbitrage and market turbulence the covered interest parity theorem states that the covered interest differential between two similar assets denominated in different currencies should be zero this paper utilizes high quality data recorded by the dealers at the bank of england to test covered interest parity during certain historical periods in which there is known to have been turbulence as well as during a relatively calm control period the data is high frequency and allowance is made for the bid offer spread brokerage costs and other considerations the results have three main implications firstly profitable arbitrage opportunities do occasionally occur and sometimes persist during turbulent periods secondly the degree of efficiency of the relevant markets appears to have increased over time thirdly there appears to be a maturity effect whereby the existence and size of profitable arbitrage opportunities appear to be positive functions of the length of maturity a rationalization of this phenomenon is offered in terms of the existence of credit limits copyright 1989 by royal economic society

the role of trader positions in spot and futures prices for wti abstract we extend the analysis of causal relations between trader positions and oil prices and the process of price discovery by estimating a cointegrating vector autoregression cvar model that expands the cash and carry relation between spot and futures prices to quantify long and short run relations among oil prices trader positions interest rates and oil inventories results indicate that oil inventories and trader positions are needed to generate cointegration between spot and futures prices the presence of trader positions and oil inventories suggest that both play a role in price discovery furthermore the cointegrating relation for price loads into the equation for both oil prices and trader positions this suggests a bi directional simultaneous adjustment process between oil prices and trader positions this expands the unidirectional causal relation from oil prices to trader positions that is generated by previous studies additional results suggest that price discovery occurs in the market for heavily traded near month futures contracts but discovery for thin far month futures markets occurs in the spot market together these results suggest mechanisms by which speculation could affect oil prices but the results presented here are moot regarding their effects

how reliable are hog futures as forecasts the chicago mercantile exchange hog futures contract was revamped in 1997 and it is one of the largest futures markets for a nonstorable commodity the literature is divided on whether or not futures prices for nonstorables provide reliable forecasts of cash prices we find that from 1998 to 2004 the hog futures market was an unbiased predictor of cash prices copyright 2008 oxford university press

international price discovery in finnish stock index futures and cash markets abstract this paper investigates empirically how the information of the world s stock markets is reflected in the thin finnish stock index futures and cash markets the world wide returns seem to have a significant leading ability for predicting finnish stock index futures returns however this kind of causal relation is not observed between the world wide and stock market returns the finnish stock index futures returns then show significant granger causality with finnish stock market returns the stock market being the lagging one the relationship is improved by allowing the association between markets to be different for positive and negative returns the findings of this study suggest short selling restrictions and other market frictions to be a significant factor leading to a delay in the pricing process in the stock market

beyond publication bias abstract this review considers several meta regression and graphical methods that can differentiate genuine empirical effect from publication bias publication selection exists when editors reviewers or researchers have a preference for statistically significant results because all areas of empirical research are susceptible to publication selection any average or tally of significant insignificant studies is likely to be biased and potentially misleading meta regression analysis can see through the murk of random sampling error and selected misspecification bias to identify the underlying statistical structures that characterize genuine empirical effect meta significance testing and precision effect testing pet are offered as a means to identify empirical effect beyond publication bias and are applied to four areas of empirical economics research minimum wage effects union productivity effects price elasticities and tests of the natural rate hypothesis

the welfare cost of bank capital requirements abstract capital requirements are the cornerstone of modern bank regulation yet little is known about their welfare cost this paper measures this cost and finds that it is surprisingly large i present a simple framework which embeds the role of liquidity creating banks in an otherwise standard general equilibrium growth model a capital requirement limits the moral hazard on the part of banks that arises due to deposit insurance however this capital requirement is also costly because it reduces the ability of banks to create liquidity the key insight is that equilibrium asset returns reveal the strength of households preferences for liquidity and this allows for the derivation of a simple formula for the welfare cost of capital requirements that is a function of observable variables only using us data the welfare cost of current capital adequacy regulation is found to be equivalent to a permanent loss in consumption of between 0 1 and 1

what do we learn from the price of crude oil futures summary despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean squared prediction error sense than no change forecasts this result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price as captured by the oil futures spread this variability can be explained by the marginal convenience yield of oil inventories using a two country multi period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil we show that increased uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls under plausible assumptions causes the spread to decline increased uncertainty also causes precautionary demand for oil to increase resulting in an immediate increase in the real spot price thus the negative of the oil futures spread may be viewed as an indicator of fluctuations in the price of crude oil driven by precautionary demand an empirical analysis of this indicator provides evidence of how shifts in the uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls affect the real spot price of crude oil copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

price discovery in energy markets abstract in this study we empirically analyze the price discovery process in the futures and spot markets for crude oil heating oil and natural gas using daily closing prices we use two different information share measures that are based on the methods proposed by gonzalo and granger 1995 and lien and shrestha 2014 both measures indicate that almost all the price discovery takes place in the futures markets for the heating oil and natural gas however for the crude oil the price discovery takes place both in the futures and spot markets as a whole our study indicates that futures markets play an important role in the price discovery process

factor supply differences as a source of comparative advantage the core of international microeconomics remains the heckscher ohlin factor proportions model although the page count in recent academic journals is decidedly against the heckscher ohlin model this is more a reflection of how economists spend their research time than what they believe time will tell whether the flurry of formal models with scale economies and strategic interactions will be able to squeeze the heckscher ohlin model to a small part of economists collective consciousness frankly i doubt that this will happen after all the heckscher ohlin model has competed for decades with these other viewpoints and has done so quite successfully the new theories of international trade are novel in a linguistic sense discarding the english only language of an earlier generation in favor of the language of modern mathematical modeling there is no doubt that linguistic innovations are important and are capable of driving the profession one way or the other at least on a temporary basis recall that even the word protection is a metaphor intended to make tariffs seem attractive i wonder how the commercial policy debate would go if tariffs were labeled robbery instead of protection i hope that there is something about the content of the message separate from the language that determines the ultimate course of the intellectual currents of our profession insightfulness validity usefulness and the like ought to matter and may be decisive linguistic novelty is one possible reason for the recent interest in scale economies and industrial strategies as explanations of international trade another possibility is that in the marketplace of ideas demand creates its own supply there is a new thirst for isolationism on the part of a substantial segment of the u s population who in the last several decades have found their earnings under attack from foreign competition it would be unseemly and counterproductive for this group of workers owners to petition the u s government merely to increase their own earnings they demand and they have been supplied some substantial intellectual foundation to justify their complaints about reduced earnings the new trade theory does the job quite nicely thank you a not insubstantial reason why economists should cling to the heckscher ohlin model is that it gives trade barriers the label that they genuinely deserve highway robbery of course this robbery is often more in the style of robin hood than jesse james but nonetheless when the metaphors are peeled away every trade barrier that i have ever seen is a device to transfer income from one group to another or perhaps more frequently to stop the transfer of income that would otherwise take place trade barriers may have side effects but income redistribution is their primary purpose i find myself at roughly the 10 percent point in this paper without mentioning any empirical facts first there was linguistic felicitousness and novelty then there was pandering what about the facts don t they matter sorry they do not matter very much one important reason why the facts do not matter much is that the heckscher ohlin model and every other model in economics is both factually correct and factually incorrect we have not developed an intellectual culture that can deal with the complexity and ambiguity of real economic phenomena we teach ourselves a naive anderson graduate school of management university of california los angeles ca 90024

a reinterpretation of the modern theory of forward exchange rates the modern theory of forward exchange rate determination mt has been widely although not unanimously accepted as an improvement over the traditional interest rate panty theory irpi the latter theory contends that in equilibruim the forward rate f will equal except for transactions costs the interest panty forward rate f 1 covered interest arbitrage cia is a pnmary but as shall be seen not the only force insunng this equilibnum condition for the forward market for example if f exceeds f then covenng arbitrageurs borrow or forego lending in the domestic country purchase the foreign currency on the spot market lend abroad at the foreign interest rate and simultaneously sell the foreign currency including interest on the forward market these transactions cause f to decline and or f to increase until equilibnum is restored motivated in part by early empincal studies of the irpi which found evidence of apparent deviations of f from f and by the intuitively appealing argument that expectations or speculation can also influence f the mt suggests that the equilibrium forward rate is better explained as a weighted average of f and the expected

risk in banking and capital regulation this paper investigates the role of bank capital regulation in risk control it is known that banks choose portfolios of higher risk because of inefficiently priced deposit insurance bank capital regulation is a way to redress this bias toward risk utilizing the mean variance model the following results are shown a the use of simple capital ratios in regulation is an ineffective means to bound the insolvency risk of banks b as a solution to problems of the capital ratio regulation the theoretically correct risk weights under the risk based capital plan are explicitly derived and c the theoretically correct risk weights are restrictions on asset composition which alters the optimal portfolio choice of banking firms the recent increase in bank failures especially after the 1980 and 1982 deregulatory acts has again ignited a controversy over the risk portfolio of the banking industry given the importance of this sector there has been increased scrutiny of the industry s motives for risk taking and possible regulatory changes to improve its stability these investigations have centered around two rather complementary areas the first of these is the role of deposit insurance and how its current pricing procedure encourages risk taking and justifies current bank regulations the works of buser chen and kane 4 kane 9 and benston et al 2 have made substantive contributions the authors demonstrates the way in which our current fixed rate insurance system rewards risk taking by the firm and insulates it through deposit insurance from the market discipline that needs to exist to ensure proper risk evaluation this realization has led these authors to propose a series of regulatory changes to encourage proper portfolio choice within the industry these include a shift to market value accounting risk based deposit insurance premiums and additional capital regulation the last of these serves as a method of coinsurance whereby higher capital levels require the bank to absorb greater losses in the event of failure and encourage additional prudence in management in essense it is one method of risk reduction that may offset the risk preference imposed on the industry due to the inappropriate insurance pricing because the amount of capital influences the probability of bank insolvency and thus the soundness of the entire banking system the regulators ceteris paribus prefer more capital to

meta regression analysis a quantitative method of literature surveys abstract pedagogically literature reviews are instrumental they summarize the large literature written on a particular topic give coherence to the complex often disparate views expressed about an issue and serve as a springboard for new ideas however literature surveys rarely establish anything approximating unanimous consensus ironically this is just as true for the empirical economic literature to harmonize this dissonance we offer a quantitative methodology for reviewing the empirical economic literature meta regression analysis mra is the regression analysis of regression analyses mra tends to objectify the review process it studies the processes that produce empirical economic results as though they were any other social scientific phenomenon mra provides a framework for replication and offers a sensitivity analysis for model specification in this brief essay we propose a new method of reviewing economic literature mra and discuss its potential

cross country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution abstract we collect 2735 estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption from 169 published studies that cover 104 countries during different time periods the estimates vary substantially from country to country even after controlling for 30 aspects of study design our results suggest that income and asset market participation are the most effective factors in explaining the heterogeneity households in rich countries and countries with high stock market participation substitute a larger fraction of consumption intertemporally in response to changes in expected asset returns micro level studies that focus on sub samples of rich households or asset holders also find systematically larger values of the elasticity

the role of bank capital in the propagation of shocks abstract the recent financial turmoil has underlined the importance of analyzing the link between banks balance sheets and economic activity we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which bank capital mitigates an agency problem between banks and their creditors as a result the capital position of banks affects their ability to attract loanable funds and therefore influences the business cycle through a bank capital channel of transmission we find that the bank capital channel greatly amplifies and propagates the effects of technology shocks on output investment and inflation moreover bank capital shocks create sizeable declines in output and investment

beyond the algebra of explanation hov for the technology age it is hard to believe that factor endowments theory could offer an adequate explanation of international trade patterns while the theory adequately predicts saudi arabian oil exports it hardly seems appropriate for explaining the revolutionary impact of new technologies on world trade yet to take this position is to misunderstand the thrust of recent empirical research in international trade research that is giving shape to a new generation of heckscher ohlin vanek hov thinking the core of this new thinking is a class of hov predictions that allow for international differences in technology and choice of techniques the literature is in the process of rapid evolution as a result the key questions tend to get lost there have been three of them first what empirical regularities account for the poor performance of the hov model second are there alternative assumptions about technology that lead to better test results for the model both of these are interesting questions but they hardly constitute an end point for understanding the impacts of international trade as edward e leamer 1993 p 439 pointed out e conomists ought to abandon the idea that models are either true or false in favor of the notion that models are sometimes useful and sometimes misleading the third and most important question is whether the hov model provides a useful framework for thinking about international technology differences in spite of the defects of the model the answer is a definite yes 9

market structure and inefficiency in the foreign exchange market abstract this paper investigates the intradaily operational efficiency of the us foreign exchange market by conducting computer simulation experiments with market structure the numbers of market makers brokers and customers the results indicate significant operational inefficiencies which can be explained by temporary inventory imbalances inherent in a decentralized market the results also suggest that much of this inefficiency could be alleviated through a centralization of price information jel f31 g15

covered interest arbitrage profits the role of liquidity and credit risk we study the profitability of covered interest parity cip arbitrage violations and their relationship with market liquidity and credit risk using a novel and unique dataset of tick by tick firm quotes for all financial instruments involved in the arbitrage strategy the empirical analysis shows that positive cip arbitrage deviations include a compensation for liquidity and credit risk once these risk premia are taken into account small arbitrage profits only accrue to traders who are able to negotiate low trading costs the results are robust to stale pricing and the nonsynchronous trading occurring in the markets involved in the arbitrage strategy

price discovery in oil markets a time varying analysis of the 1990 1991 gulf conflict abstract this study examines the behaviour of crude oil spot and futures markets in the uk and usa during the 1990 1991 gulf conflict the objective is to investigate the relative ability of spot and futures markets to impound information this is achieved with the use of a generalized model of price discovery which represents a synthesis of the two most commonly used methodologies in its field emphasis is placed on the time varying nature of price discovery relationships results indicate that such relationships are strongly temporal these findings offer new insights into the nature of relationships between spot and futures markets

assessing the role of futures position substitutability in a monthly slaughtered pork factor demand by us processors a cointegrated var model approach abstractthis article combines cointegrated var modelling with basic neoclassical production microeconomics in a new way that tests for and illuminates the empirical nature of the monthly us pork processing sector s factor demand for slaughtered pork statistical evidence strongly suggests that the us pork processing sector has a hicksian cobb douglas slaughtered pork demand that arises from applying shephard s lemma to the sector s cost function and that us pork processors treat slaughtered pork and related futures positions as close factor substitutes in the wake of major and ongoing futures market events and trends this study establishes and statistically tests a theoretical link between futures price movements and impacts on the underlying slaughtered pork market through monthly formation of us pork processors factor demand for slaughtered pork evidence suggests that demand agents shift between demands for the two substitutes based on movements in the slaughter futures price ratio that results in

exchange rate theory and practice this volume grew out of a national bureau of economic research conference on exchange rates held in bellagio italy in 1982 in it the world s most respected international monetary economists discuss three significant new views on the economics of exchange rates rudiger dornbusch s overshooting model jacob frenkel s and michael mussa s asset market variants and pentti kouri s current account portfolio approach their papers test these views with evidence from empirical studies and analyze a number of exchange rate policies in use today including those of the european monetary system

a model of covered interest arbitrage under market segmentation existing models of covered interest arbitrage typically assume market participants have equal capital and foreign exchange market access this paper derives sufficient conditions for the existence of neutral interest parity forward price bands when capital markets are segmented and exchange rates are dually quoted all forward price intervals are completely characterized in terms of simultaneous two way and one way arbitrage flow possibilities the parameters of the no arbitrage price region are shown to be established on the basis of relative advantage with respect to the set of available arbitrage strategies copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

the term structure of the forward premium abstract most studies of the efficiency of the foreign exchange market focus on a single maturity usually a one month forward exchange rate however one observes that forward contracts of many maturities are simultaneously traded in the foreign exchange market the hypothesis that the foreign exchange market uses all available information has implications for the joint behavior of forward exchange rates of various maturities this paper proposes an equilibrium theory of the term structure of the forward premium the model is tested using data on the german and canadian exchange rates the results indicate that the data are consistent with the theory for germany and inconsistent with the theory for canada

when and how us dollar shortages evolved into the full crisis evidence from the cross currency swap market abstract this paper investigates when and how the us dollar shortages evolved into the full crisis in the cross currency swap market between major european currencies and the us dollar during the turmoil of 2007 2009 using the dynamic factor model with regime switching coefficients of each swap price with respect to the latent common factor the 1 year market entered the high crisis regime soon after the onset of the subprime problem in august 2007 the 10 year market entered that regime following the collapse of bear sterns in mid march 2008 financial credit spreads have significant predictive power for switches between high and low regimes

the ricardian equivalence proposition evidence from foreign exchange markets abstract the major argument against running large government budget deficits is that they raise interest rates and crowd out real investment conclusive evidence of a relationship between large budget deficits and high interest rates has not been found two competing explanations are tested by examining the impact of government udget announcements on foreign exchange rates the ricardian equivalence proposition that deficits have no crowding out effects is compared to the conventional open economy hhypothesis that capital mobility transfers these effects to foreign exchange rates the results supports the open economy hypothesis over the ricardian equivalence proposition jel f41

momentary exchange rate locked in a triangular mechanism of international currency this study uses two way quoted data on major and nonmajor currencies to test the exchange rate dynamics particular attention is paid to the arbitrage and the spread in triangular foreign exchange trades there is only one possible triangle when a bilateral exchange rate equals its trilateral rate otherwise any third currency would potentially create arbitrage opportunities empirical testing evidence supports that small but possibly exploitable profitable arbitrage has significantly occurred over the very short haul of uncertainty and turbulence in other words we are convinced that the bilateral exchange rate could be diverged from one common currency side of the trilateral basket rates until markets function efficiently this helps in better explaining foreign exchange rate movements in addition we find that the currency correlating decreases slightly but the volatility increases over time as we expected

the law of one price in the eurocurrency market abstract this paper studies the interest rate parity arbitrage condition in the eurocurrency market in the period 1967 to 1980 the results suggest that this market is relatively efficient with few opportunities for arbitrage profits turbulance associated with external shocks to this market is relatively short lived the evidence indicates that the foreign exchange and eurocurrency markets respond rapidly to monetary shocks

short term and long term government debt and nonresident interest withholding taxes abstract this paper examines the incidence of nonresident interest withholding taxes in the international 3 month treasury bill market and the international 5 year government bond market the approach is one of pooled cross section time series regressions the evidence suggests that the yields on national treasury bills and on 5 year government bonds fully reflect the nonresident interest withholding taxes imposed on american or japanese investors nonresident interest withholding taxes on short term and long term government debt thus do not appear to be borne by the international investor

rethinking an old empirical puzzle econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly using both semiparametric and parametric estimation methods this paper corroborates earlier findings of fractionally integrated behaviour in the forward premium two new explanations are also proposed to help reconcile earlier conflicting empirical evidence on the time series properties of the forward premium traditional regression approaches used to test the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis are then evaluated including regression in levels in returns fama s 1984 regression and in error correction format interesting statistical and or interpretive implications are found in all three cases for example the predictions of the appropriate nonstandard limit theory are consistent with many of the standard empirical results reported from fama s regression including the commonly occurring yet puzzling negative correlations between spot returns and the forward premium it is suggested that the principal failure of unbiasedness may be due instead to the difference in persistence between these two series copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

growth by destination the role of trade in africa s recent growth episode summary over the period 1990 2009 africa has experienced a distinct and favorable reversal in its growth fortunes in stark contrast to its performance in the preceding decades leading to a variety of hypotheses seeking to explain the phenomenon this paper presents both cross country and panel data evidence on the causal factors driving the recent turnaround in africa s growth and takes the unique approach of disaggregating the separate growth impacts of africa s bilateral trade with china europe and america the empirical analysis presented in this paper suggests that the primary and most robust causal factors driving africa s recent growth turnaround are private sector and foreign direct investment although empirical evidence of the role of bilateral trade openness in africa s recent growth emerges within a fixed effect estimation setting these results are not as robust when endogeneity and other issues are fully accounted for among the three major bilateral partners africa s bilateral trade with china has been a relatively important factor spurring growth on the continent and especially so in resource rich oil producing and non landlocked countries the econometric results are not as supportive of growth inducing effects of foreign aid these findings emerge after applying a variety of panel data specifications to the data including the recent fixed effects filtered fef estimator introduced by pesaran and zhou 2014 and the dynamic panel generalized method of moments gmm estimator which allows for endogeneity between trade and growth

is the interest differential exogenous in interest rate parity the japanese experience 1979 1983 abstract the paper examines the causal relationship between the interest rate differential intd and the forward exchange rates premium exp with three types of test of daily data between 1979 and 1983 at the tokyo money and foreign exchange markets and the euro dollar market the tests indicate a strong instantaneous and a bidirectional causal relationship between exp and intd such relationship was enhanced in the second period after free capital transactions were permitted in december 1980 with intd s effect on exp being greater than that in the opposite direction

covered interest arbitrage then versus now we introduce a new weekly database of spot and forward us uk exchange rates and interest rates to examine the integration of forward exchange markets during the classical gold standard period 1880 1914 using threshold autoregressions tars we estimate the transaction cost band of covered interest differentials cids and compare our results with studies of more recent periods we find that cids for the us uk rate were generally largest during the classical gold standard we argue that slower information and communications technology during the gold standard period led to fewer short term financial flows higher transaction costs and larger cids

global political risk and currency momentum using a measure of political risk relative to the united states that captures unexpected political conditions we show that political risk is priced in the cross section of currency momentum and contains information beyond other risk factors our results are robust after controlling for transaction costs reversals and alternative limits to arbitrage the global political environment affects the profitability of the momentum strategy in the foreign exchange market investors following such strategies are compensated for the exposure to the global political risk of those currencies they hold that is the past winners and exploit the lower returns of loser portfolios the risk compensation is mainly justified by the different exposures of foreign currencies in the momentum portfolio to u s political shocks which is the main component of global political risk

active labor market policy evaluations a meta analysis this article presents a meta analysis of recent microeconometric evaluations of active labour market policies we categorise 199 programme impacts from 97 studies conducted between 1995 and 2007 job search assistance programmes yield relatively favourable programme impacts whereas public sector employment programmes are less effective training programmes are associated with positive medium term impacts although in the short term they often appear ineffective we also find that the outcome variable used to measure programme impact matters but neither the publication status of a study nor the use of a randomised design is related to the sign or significance of the programme estimate

foreign exchange market efficiency tests implications of recent empirical findings abstract the recent empirical literature on the efficiency of the foreign exchange market has been characterized by strikingly contradictory conclusions drawn from similar empirical evidence these contradictions result because 1 different maintained hypotheses are held and 2 different criteria e g micro versus macroeconomic are used to judge the evidence in this survey we organize the empirical literature under several headings the presence of risk premiums empirical regularities in regression tests profitable trading rules and advanced econometric techniques in integrating this material we consider the implications of the current evidence for investors forecasters policy makers and theorists

from turmoil to crisis dislocations in the fx swap market before and after the failure of lehman brothers abstract this paper investigates dislocations in the foreign exchange fx swap market between the us dollar and three major european currencies after the failure of lehman brothers in september 2008 deviations from covered interest parity cip were negatively associated with the creditworthiness of us financial institutions as well as that of european institutions consistent with the deepening of a dollar liquidity problem into a global phenomenon us dollar term funding auctions by the ecb snb and boe as well as the us federal reserve commitment to provide unlimited dollar swap lines are found to have ameliorated the fx swap market dislocations

futures markets cognitive ability and mispricing in experimental asset markets we study the effect of a futures market in which contracts maturing in the last period of the life of the asset can be traded our experiment has two treatments one in which a spot market operates on its own and a second treatment in which a spot and a futures market are active simultaneously futures markets lower spot prices but increase price volatility the futures markets themselves exhibit considerable overpricing individuals with higher cognitive reflection test crt scores achieve greater earnings and tend to sell in the overpriced futures market while traders with lower crt scores make purchases in the futures market greater average crt score among a group of traders is associated with better price discovery when no futures market is present but there is no such relationship in the presence of a futures market modified measures of crt which take into account different types of incorrect responses are introduced

interest rate parity tests switzerland and some major western countries abstract this article reviews briefly the interest rate parity ip theory and possible divergences between covered interest rates on two assets denominated in different currencies from direct ip tests involving pairs of assets denominated in sfr and dm using monthly data on 3 month treasury bills and on 3 month euro deposits it appears that the theory holds better for euro currency pairs of assets than for domestic pairs further investigation uncovers significant occurence of autocorrelation for domestic pairs possibly indicating left out explanatory factors in the standard ip formulation and points to the non normality of the distrbution of arbitrage margins thus casting doubts on most statistical results in such tests

are japanese interest rates too stable abstract we examine the effects of japanese financial market liberalization using daily data on eurocurrency and two japanese onshore interest rates the gensaki and cd rates our evidence suggests that japanese money markets are now fully integrated with world markets but that the degree of integration depends heavily on the japanese asset examined in particular we find that the gensaki market is not completely integrated with the euroyen market the cd rate however is cointegrated with the euroyen rate since june 1984 and the euroyen cd rate variance ratio is similar to that of dollar denominated assets after november 1988 jel e43

macroeconomic impact of basel iii evidence from a meta analysis abstract we present a meta analysis of the impact of higher capital requirements imposed by regulatory reforms on the macroeconomic activity basel iii the empirical evidence derived from a unique dataset of 48 primary studies indicates that there is a negative albeit moderate gdp effect in response to a change in the target capital ratio meta regression results suggest that the estimates reported in the literature tend to be systematically influenced by a selected set of study characteristics such as econometric specifications the authors affiliations and the underlying financial system finally we discuss the publication bias

time series minimum wage studies a meta analysis time series minimum wage studies a meta analysis author s david card and alan b krueger reviewed work s source the american economic review vol 85 no 2 papers and proceedings of the hundredth and seventh annual meeting of the american economic association washington dc january 6 8 1995 may 1995 pp 238 243 published by american economic association stable url http www jstor org stable 2117925 accessed 04 11 2011 15 46

covered interest parity a high frequency high quality data study profitable deviations from covered interest parity cip represent riskless arbitrage opportunities and so indicate market ineffic iency previous empirical work on cip uses noncontemporaneously sampl ed data and reports mixed results this paper uses high frequency te n minute high quality data gathered personally by the author in th e london foreign exchange market to test the cip condition the resu lts overwhelmingly support the market efficiency hypothesis copyright 1987 by the review of economic studies limited

the term structure of forward exchange premiums and the forecastability of spot exchange rates correcting the errors we develop a framework to extract information regarding subsequent spot rate movements from the term structure of forward exchange premiums while admitting possible deviations from rationality and