preventing competition because of solidarity rhetoric and reality of airport investments in spain from a public interest perspective there could be a justification for constraining market mechanisms with the aim of progressive redistribution however some policies might be based on selfish motivations of government agents in this article we empirically contrast if the infrastructure policy is based only on public interest motivations or if it is also based on the private motivations of policy makers in this way spain infrastructure policy provides a useful policymaking field to test hypothesis about the behaviour of policy makers we find some evidence regarding the strength of political motivations in explaining such behaviour in fact results from our analysis show that political motivations can eventually play a more relevant role than social welfare maximization

money transfers among banked and unbanked mexican immigrants the recent recognition of the matricula consular as an acceptable form of alien identification by financial institutions has increased undocumented mexican immigrants access to u s banking services usage of the banking system s low cost wiring and money transfer services may encourage mexican immigrants to save and potentially transfer more money to mexico we use data from the mexican migration project mmp107 to examine the hypothesis that immigrants with access to banking services in the united states between 1970 and 2004 sent back more funds to mexico than their unbanked counterparts we find that banking among mexican immigrants in our sample is limited while having a u s bank account does not appear to significantly raise monthly remittance flows by mexican immigrants it does help boost the amount brought back home thus our analysis sheds light on the potential effects of matricula cards on the future flow of remittances to mexico

micro estimates of public spending demand functions and tests of the tiebout and median voter hypotheses responses to questions given to a random sample of michigan households are used to estimate public spending demand functions while income and price elasticities are similar to those obtained from aggregate data positive income elasticities appear to arise because public services are distributed in a prorich manner a relatively small variance in spending demands among urban and suburban communities in metropolitan areas with substantial public service variety suggests that the tiebout mechanism works this interpretation is supported by the fact that actual spending conforms substantially to desired levels in urban areas but less so in rural areas with little public sector choice

inequality and violent crime abstract we investigate the robustness and causality of the link between income inequality and violent crime across countries first we study the correlation between the gini index and homicide and robbery rates within and between countries second we examine the partial correlation by considering other crime determinants third we control for the endogeneity of inequality by isolating its exogenous impact on these crime rates fourth we control for measurement error in crime rates by modeling it as both unobserved country effects and random noise finally we examine the robustness of this partial correlation to alternative measures of inequality the panel data consist of nonoverlapping 5 year averages for 39 countries during 1965 95 for homicides and 37 countries during 1970 94 for robberies crime rates and inequality are positively correlated within countries and particularly between countries and this correlation reflects causation from inequality to crime rates even after controlling for ot

tax perceptions and preferences over tax structure in the united kingdom do voters know their tax liabilities accurately or do they systematically misperceive them could such misperceptions influence voters choices over alternative tax structures proposed by politicians this paper assesses the accuracy of individuals tax perceptions in the uk using micro data from the british social attitudes survey 1995 and tests an empirical model of the determinants of tax structure preferences including tax misperceptions a systematic bias towards over estimation of income and expenditure tax vat liabilities is found and individ uals tax preferences appear to be both dominated by self interest and distorted by tax misperceptions whether using a traditional utility maximisation framework or a variety of public choice frameworks economists agree that consumer voters or taxpayer voters dislike taxes taxes lower the consumption possibility set and thereby utility politicians proposing higher taxes expect to lose votes unless they can persuade voters that the utility gain from the use of those taxes will exceed the tax induced utility loss of course the extent of individuals losses will depend on their circumstances and how revenues are raised the tax structure traditional tax incidence and excess burden analyses and models of political costs associated with the tax structure hettich and winer 1984 1988 each provide guidance on the extent to which different individuals may be expected to suffer and vote differently under alternative tax structures much will depend on attitudes towards and perceptions of specific taxes especially personal income taxes and consumption taxes underlying most such analyses are two common presumptions i tax preferences are dictated by self interest and ii individuals accurately assess their tax liabilities and so make informed choices two largely independent areas of literature have challenged these assumptions first models incorporating altruism

guns and butter and government popularity in britain britain under the government of prime minister thatcher provides a unique opportunity to probe the effects of both war and macroeconomic performance on government popularity monthly ratings for thatcher and conservative party support june 1979 to july 1985 are examined by way of box tiao intervention models the model that best captures the impact of the falklands war of 1982 is of the gradual temporary variety popularity gains accrued through the three month war shrink in a geometric fashion nevertheless they prove to be worth over five percentage points for the conservative party a year later in the 1983 election macroeconomic performance meanwhile is found to have an asymmetric effect on government popularity with unemployment strongly significant but inflation not significant at all apparently the british public is punishing failure on employment while letting success on inflation go unrewarded qualifications of the positive effect of war and the negative effect of macroeconomic performance are suggested

earmarked taxation welfare versus political support abstract compared with the traditional public finance approach of a monolithic fully informed planner earmarking of taxation is less likely to be optimal if a principal agent setting is considered where taxing and spending are performed by two separate agents which are monitored by the parliament we assume that the parliament either maximizes welfare or expected votes vote maximizers are more inclined to choose earmarking but at the price of inefficiently high costs

issues economics and the dynamics of multiparty elections the british 1987 general election we offer a model of multiparty elections that combines voters retrospective economic evaluations with consideration of parties issue positions and the issue preferences of voters we show that both policy issues and the state of the economy matter in british elections in 1987 voters made a largely retrospective evaluation of the conservatives based on economic performance those who rejected the conservative party chose between labour and alliance based on issue positions through simulations we move the parties in the issue space and reestimate vote shares as well as hypothesize an alternative distribution of views on the economy and we show that labour had virtually no chance to win with a centrist party as a viable alternative the predictions from our 1987 simulations are supported in an analysis of the 1992 british election we argue for multinomial probit in studying three party elections because it allows for a richer formulation of politics than do competing methods

welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data abstract this paper discusses a methodology for calculating the distribution of gains and losses from a policy change using data for a large sample of households estimates are based on the equivalent income function which is money metric utility defined over observable variables this enables calculations to be standardised and a computer program to compute the statistics presented in the paper is available for a general demand system equivalent income is related to measures of deadweight loss and standard errors are computed for each of the welfare measures an application to u k data for 5 895 households is given which simulates a reform that involves eliminating housing subsidies

how robust is the uniform emissions pricing rule to social equity concerns abstract this paper examines pollution tax differentiation across industries in light of social equity concerns using theoretical and numerical general equilibrium analyses in an optimal tax framework we characterize the drivers for non uniform optimal taxes stemming from the interaction of household heterogeneity with social preferences quantitatively assessing the case of price based co2 emissions control in the u s economy we find that uniform emissions pricing is approximately optimal when social concerns are defined over inequity induced by the environmental tax the deviation from uniform emissions pricing however becomes non negligible when pollution tax rebates deviate much from optimal transfer schemes or when social concerns are defined over both policy induced impacts and inequity unrelated to environmental policy our results are robust to a number of model extensions including the stringency of the environmental target downstream vs upstream taxation pre existing distortionary taxes and parametric uncertainty in firms and households equilibrium tax responses

who wants to redistribute the tunnel effect in 1990s russia abstract support for governmental redistribution tended to be greater for the poor than the rich in a representative sample of russian adults in 1996 however support for redistribution is higher amongst those who expect their welfare to fall and this effect is strongest amongst the currently well off a rising trajectory inhibits demand for redistribution support is also stronger in rural areas amongst those with less schooling those who fear losing their job the elderly and amongst women our results are consistent with albert hirschman s idea of a tunnel effect whereby prospects of mobility in both directions influence demand for governmental redistribution

modeling government popularity in postwar britain a methodological example economic theory suggests that government popularity may be related to the rate of change of nonstationary economic quantities and the level of stationary financial variables like inflation or interest rates political theory suggests that this relationship may not be stable over time we find that there is a well defined relationship between u k government popularity in the postwar period and a small set of economic variables i e unemployment inflation and real interest rates unusual political events are also important voters appear to discount history at a high rate remarkably the estimated equation is very stable and passes a battery of stability tests including postsample parameter stability tests furthermore estimation using the kalman filter shows no tendency for the parameters to vary systematically over time implying that voter preferences have remained broadly constant throughout the postwar years

the regional allocation of infrastructure investment the role of equity efficiency and political factors abstract this paper analyses the main determinants of the regional allocation of infrastructure investment the estimated investment equation is derived from a general specification of the government s objective function berhman and craig am econom rev 77 1987 315 which accounts both for the equity efficiency trade off and for deviations from this rule that arise because of political factors the reaction of investment to changes in the regional output provides information about the strength of the equity efficiency trade off the main political factor considered is a measurement of the electoral productivity of funds invested in each region the equation is estimated from panel data on investment and the capital stock of transportation infrastructure i e roads rails ports and airports for the spanish departments nuts3 during the period 1987 1996 we use a dynamic specification of the equation that allows for slow adjustment and which is estimated by gmm methods arellano and bond rev econom stud 58 1991 277 the results suggest that efficiency criteria play only a limited role in the geographical distribution of government infrastructure investment specific regional infrastructure needs and political factors both appear to be factors that do explain the regional allocation of infrastructure investment

structural adjustment in africa insights from the experiences of ghana and senegal abstract structural adjustment in ghana and senegal has helped create an improved framework for economic growth but this is a fragile trend one that could be disrupted by bad weather adverse terms of trade and the vagaries of international assistance the current version of adjustment however has produced little enduring poverty alleviation a weak performance on equity issues together with rising political expectations has generated threats to the sustainability of structural adjustment and overall political stability alternatively adjustment policies can be modified to fully incorporate equity and sustainability objectives in this respect it is critical for the poor to obtain more effective representation in decision making on adjustment through indigenous nongovernment organizations

energy populism and household welfare we study a cycle of subsidized energy prices and estimate its welfare impact on households in the buenos aires metropolitan region a simple framework explains its emergence in terms of the preference of a median household voter for receiving transfer gains followed by a future flow of transfer losses we evaluate actual transfers and welfare effects that a departure of prices of natural gas and electricity generation from opportunity costs since 2003 had on households and explore the impact of a way back to opportunity cost pricing

is political popularity a random walk this paper tets for nonstationarity in the political popularity of uk parties and governments within the context of an economic model which predicts that party support is an arima 0 1 1 process the hypothesis is rejected for the government s popularity but the results for individual party support are less clear out

is the median voter decisive evidence from referenda voting patterns abstract this paper examines whether the voter with the median income is decisive in local spending decisions previous tests have relied on cross sectional data while we make use of a pair of california referenda to estimate a first difference specification the referenda proposed to lower the required vote share for passing local educational bonding initiatives from 67 to 50 and 67 to 55 respectively we find that voters rationally consider future public service decisions when deciding how to vote on voting rules however the empirical evidence strongly suggests that an income percentile below the median is decisive for majority voting rules especially in communities that have a large share of high income voters with attributes that suggest low demand for public services based on a model that explicitly recognizes that each community contains voters with both high and low demand for public school spending we also find that an increase in the share of low demand voters is associated with a lower decisive voter income percentile for the high demand group this two type model implies that our low demand types individuals over age 45 with no children have demands that are 45 lower than other voters collectively these findings are consistent with high income voters with weak preferences for public educational services voting with the poor against increases in public spending on education

targeting the poor evidence from a field experiment in indonesia the brief summarizes the targeting the poor evidence from a field experiment in indonesia for the period december 2008 january 2009 this paper reports an experiment in 640 indonesian villages on three approaches to target the poor proxy means tests pmt where assets are used to predict consumption community targeting where villagers rank everyone from richest to poorest and a hybrid defining poverty based on ppp 2 per capita consumption community targeting and the hybrid perform somewhat worse in identifying the poor than pmt though not by enough to significantly affect poverty outcomes for a typical program elite capture does not explain these results instead communities appear to apply a different concept of poverty

does decentralization reduce income inequality only in rich states we investigate the relationship between fiscal decentralization and income inequality using data from u s states over three and a half decades our study contributes to the literature in several ways in terms of empirical methodology and specification first we take into account integration and cointegration properties of the data and estimate the cointegratingrelationship between fiscal decentralization and income inequality using fully modified ordinary least squares following pedroni 2000 second we investigate the direction of the causality finally and perhaps most importantly we investigate if the relationship between fiscal decentralization and income inequality is conditional on income in each state we find that fiscal decentralization does reduce income inequality but only in rich states we also find that causality runs from fiscal decentralization to income inequality not the other way around

sensitivity of optimal commodity taxes to relaxing leisure goods separability and to the wage rate abstract this paper uses a new labour augmented demand functional form to calculate optimal commodity taxes for india the optimal taxes which are far from uniform are extremely sensitive to deviation from leisure goods separability and to variation in the wage rate parameter

political business cycles and macroeconomic credibility a survey there is clear evidence that government popularity and election performance is affected in part by economic performance suggesting that governments may manipulate the economy to political advantage simple models incorporating adaptive expectations which allowed the government to exploit this relationship were developed in the 1970s but fell out of fashion with the advent of new classical economics however modern theories of the political business cycle which are closely related to the macroeconomic policy game literature assume rational expectations and lead to forms of political business cycle driven by the existence of uncertainty of one type or another the international evidence suggests that some aspects of the theories apply although definitive conclusions are as we might expect hard to come by

social security in a moral economy an empirical analysis for java private transfer payments are modeled as outcomes of a constrained social choice pro blem facing donors the approach is applied to a large household leve l data set for java and hypotheses are tested concerning the performa nce of the moral economy as a social security system transfer be havior is found to be very different between rural and urban areas w hile transfer receipts and outlays are income inequality reducing in rural areas this is not the case in urban areas there is also evidence of transfers being targeted to disadvantaged households such as the sick elderly and for urban areas the unemployed copyright 1988 by mit press

multilateral and bilateral loans versus grants issues and evidence this paper examines a wide range of issues relating to the mix between loans and grants as well as the degree of concessionality of loans a number of empirical tests are carried out based on annual panel data over 1970 to 1999 for 22 donor countries and 72 recipient countries based on the tests we observe that for bilateral donors past grant loan mix and hence reflows from past transfers do not influence the volume of current resource transfers our tests also show that the rate of official borrowing by the recipients and by deduction the extent of their past debt burden is positively influenced by the extent of the concessionality of such loans irrespective of whether it is in the form of subsidised interest rates or longer grace periods the paper concludes with a review of the circumstances in which grants soft loans and non concessional loans might have their respective comparative advantage as well as a discussion of the need so as to overcome the negative incentive problems of soft loans for a typical concessional loan package to be separated into two constituent parts this would enable the recipient to be given the grant component and the option to take from the non concessional loan component as much as desired

unemployment in britain male unemployment in britain has risen from around 2 per cent in the 1950s to around 17 per cent in 1985 see figure 1 the figures are for male unemployment because there is no consistent series for women 1 even more remarkably unemployment has fallen in only three years out of the last twenty 1973 1978 and 1979 to account for this we need a model that explains both changes in the natural or non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu and deviations from it we use a three equation supply side model centred on the labour market this has two main features the first concerns the determination of employment in the short run the labour demand function that we use cuts through the fruitless debate now raging especially in europe as to whether current unemployment is classical or keynesian according to the classical view employment is too high because real wages are too high according to the keynesian view real wages are not binding and unemployment is high because the product market does not clear with prices too high relative to nominal demand the whole debate is set in the framework of perfect competition yet in perfect competition prices are set by impersonal forces and it is not clear what could possibly stop prices clearing the market it is much more reasonable to think of prices as being set by imperfectly competitive firms existing prices being the best they can think of given the demand they face in this context firms demand for labour will depend on both the real product wage and the level of real aggregate demand this is the demand function we estimate and it conforms both to common sense and to the data however this does not imply that employment can be made to grow without limit by pumping up real demand for in the medium term when price surprises are eliminated our model determines three variables employment real wages and real demand on the basis of three equations an employment equation a price equation and a wage equation thus in the medium term there is a natural level of employment and corresponding to this a natural level of real aggregate demand the second key feature of our model concerns the medium term determination of unemployment in the medium term the planned mark up of wages over prices in wage settlements must be consistent with the mark up of prices over wage costs in employers pricing behaviour for if wage setters try to set real product wages higher than is consistent with employers pricing behaviour this generates ever increasing inflation thus the key to understanding unemployment in the medium term is the behaviour of wage setters if events occur that push them towards too high real wages then unemployment has to rise to offset these influences we shall call these influences wage pressure variables or push factors and they are clearly crucial in understanding unemployment the variables here include the social security system employment protection

a new view of political accountability for economic performance most political support models imply that in evaluating economic performance voters use a standard that would provide poor predictions of the future and leave the economy vulnerable to manipulation by vote hungry politicians drawing on macroeconomic theory we develop a simple standard of evaluation which encompasses a concern not only for current economic outcomes but also for accurately assessed future consequences of current policies we find that political support for the president can be explained as well by models that assume that voters use this sophisticated standard as by models that assume voter naivete our analysis questions the wisdom of measures typically used to assess voter evaluation of economic performance in a variety of theoretical contexts the results also help to explain the absence of convincing evidence that governments exploit voter ignorance in manipulating the economy

needs economic constraints and the distribution of public home care when private goods are publicly provided at subsidized prices government authorities have to determine the distribution of services on recipients the distribution of services according to need is frequently referred to as an important policy goal thus governments are assumed to develop standards for evaluating the relative needs of different clients this paper analyses the impact of needs and economic constraints on the distribution of public home care in norway the empirical results show that individual needs have a significant effect on the distribution of home care another finding is that local public authorities with higher disposable incomes meet client needs better finally the results are utilized to derive a measure of client specific need

remittances and savings from international migration theory and evidence using a matched sample abstract the central question of this paper concerns the implications of remittance flows for migrants and their origin households in the country of origin this paper represents the first attempt to present a disaggregated view of international remittance flows using a matched sample of international migrants and their origin families i investigate two types of remittances transfers to the home family and savings in the country of origin the empirical evidence provides support for the altruistic model of transfer behavior wealthier origin families tend to receive lower transfers other things being equal however remittances sent to finance origin country investments are positively associated with origin household wealth the estimation strategy addresses two common problems that arise in investigating remittance behavior omitted variable bias and the measurement of origin household resources

economic reform and food prices evidence from markets in ghana abstract this paper investigates trends in food prices in ghana during 1970 1993 regression results confirm that real wholesale prices of food have been declining since the 1970s price trends in the 1980s are characterized by a downward shift at the beginning of the postreform period and a subsequent continuing downward trend despite falling grain prices we find that agricultural wage rates failed to provide an adequate basis for subsistence particularly during periods of large seasonal price rises many farmers hold grain for both speculation and to smooth income this view is supported by evidence regarding seasonal price spreads that have been increasing since 1984 we find no support however for conclusions of trader manipulation of marketing margins during the adjustment period

are output fluctuations transitory according to the conventional view of the business cycle fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend the purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view if fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output then an unexpected change in output today should not substantially change one s forecast of output in say five or ten years our examination of quarterly postwar united states data leads us to be skeptical about this implication the data suggest that an unexpected change in real gnp of 1 percent should change one s forecast by over 1 percent over a long horizon

the theory of reform and indian indirect taxes abstract given a set of value judgements an initial state and a model of the economy one can ask whether some feasible tax change would increase welfare we do this by defining the marginal cost in terms of welfare of raising an extra rupee from the i th good the inverse optimum problem is the calculation of non negative welfare weights on households which imply that the initial state is optimum if no such welfare weights exist then a pareto improvement is possible we illustrate the concepts and results using data from the indian economy for 1979 1980 directions of tax reform for a number of specific social welfare functions and for pareto improvements are presented

the distribution of public services an exploration of local governmental preferences a local governmental welfare function is specified to explore two of its central characteristics the equity productivity trade off and differential weights across neighborhoods the constrained maximization model is estimated using service outcomes safety in the welfare function as opposed to publicly provided inputs police over neighborhoods the equity productivity trade off is found to be considerable and not all neighborhoods are weighted equally the results show that inequality aversion and unequal concern by local government over service outcomes must be addressed explicitly to understand the observed distribution of publicly provided inputs with important implications for standard analysis of local governmental behavior copyright 1987 by american economic association

social security and private transfers in developing countries the case of peru do social security systems crowd out private transfers from younger to older generations this question has generated much theoretical discussion but little empirical work exists to confirm or refute this crowding out hypothesis we investigate the connection between social security and private transfers in peru using the peruvian living standards survey and find that private transfers from young to old would have been nearly 20 percent higher without social security benefits this indicates that the peruvian social security system is less effective at delivering benefits to the elderly than a simple assignment of government expenditures would suggest social security s displacement of private transfers while significant is less than that predicted by models with widespread altruistic transfers

measuring changes in poverty a methodological case study of indonesia during an adjustment period analysis of the effects of policy changes on the poor is often hindered by the difficulties inherent in measuring poverty and comparing levels of poverty before and after policy changes this article outlines two techniques which can overcome many of these measurement problems stochastic dominance conditions which can facilitate a robust poverty ranking of distributions of living standards and a decomposable poverty index which allows measured changes in aggregate poverty to be disaggregated into their various components such as the changes among population subgroups and growth and redistributive components these techniques can be applied to a wide range of indicators of economic well being and poverty lines and to assumptions about the poor the approaches are illustrated using household survey data from indonesia before and after external shocks and the subsequent structural adjustment program in the mid 1980s the study finds that favorable initial conditions and pro poor pattern of growth enabled indonesia to maintain its momentum in poverty alleviation during the period

remittances and vulnerability to poverty in rural mexico international remittances have been portrayed as the human face of globalization given their potential to alleviate poverty by directly increasing household income using a panel of rural households in mexico from october 1998 to november 2000 this study assesses whether this is in fact the case however rather than examining whether transfers income would reduce future consumption poverty we asked if transfers are likely to reach people whose conditions are prone to worsen in the future we used vulnerability to consumption poverty to quantify the extent to which risks and the more permanent disadvantages embedded in most rural livelihoods can translate into future declines in well being we found contrary to our expectations a negative and statistically significant relationship between the remittance of transfers including foreign remittances and the threat to future poverty that rural households could experience

tax reform from the gradient projection viewpoint abstract this paper examines the problems of gradual tax reform desirable small moves of the tax system are determined using the principles of the well known gradient projection algorithm three classical models of public finance are considered for each of them a continuous time dynamic process is exhibited along which the social welfare function increases until convergence to local second best extrema although the selection of trajectories according to the gradient projection method has some arbitrariness it leads to intuitively and economically appealing rules such as a tax reform analog of the classical optimal taxation result on production efficiency

mutual insurance as an elusive concept in traditional rural communities during the last two decades economists have paid increasing attention to the role of informal risk sharing arrangements as a privileged way through which traditional rural communities can achieve a significant degree of protection against income fluctuations and other hazards beyond their control this article however argues that when they enter into such arrangements members of these communities are guided by a principle of balanced reciprocity they expect a return from any contribution or payment they make rather than by a true logic of mutual insurance more precisely they do not conceive of insurance as a game where there are winners and losers and where income is redistributed between lucky and unlucky individuals none the less traditional agrarian societies have proven able to develop a restricted range of sustainable forms of mutual insurance that avoid the aforementioned problem

as an economy becomes more developed do people become less altruistic abstractinter household private transfers are one of the main informal insurance mechanisms that prevalently implemented in developing countries unfortunately most of the literatures investigates

risk sharing commitment and information an experimental analysis this paper describes and analyzes the results of a unique field experiment especially designed to test the eects of the level of commitment and information available to individuals when sharing risk we find that limiting exogenously provided commitment is associated with less risk sharing while limiting information on defections can be associated with more risk sharing these results can be understood by distinguishing between intrinsic and extrinsic incentives and by recognizing that social sanctions are costly to inflict or that individuals suer from time inconsistent preferences comparing the groups formed within our experiment with the real life risk sharing networks in a few villages allows us to test the external validity of our experiment and suggests that the results are salient to our understanding of risk sharing arrangements observed in developing countries jel classification numbers c93 d71 d81 o12

dalton improving tax reform when households differ in ability and needs abstract in a previous paper we suggested a method for identifying tax reforms that adhere to dalton s principle of transfers approving a small enough transfer from rich to poor however even the weak requirement from that method namely prescribing a uni dimensional ordinal ranking of households by how deserving they are of a marginal income transfer is con fining here we extend the approach by formulating a two dimensional criterion for a dalton improving tax reform when there is social approval for transfers when other things are equal from the more able to the less able and from less needy households to more needy ones the possibility of applying this extended criterion in practice and a comparison with other criteria is carried out using the example of u k excise taxes

rationality causality and the relation between economic conditions and the popularity of parties an empirical investigation for the federal republic of germany 1971 1982 abstract two questions are discussed using german popularity data from 1971 to 1982 it is asked whether it is true that using time series methods no relation can be found between economic variables and the popularity of parties taking ex post predictions strong evidence is presented that such a relation exists even if usual granger causality tests cannot detect it but is this relation compatible with rational expectations of the electorate this is at best partly the case as the anticipated part of the unemployment rate has a significant impact on the popularities of the two major german parties

donor preferences and recipient fiscal behavior a simultaneous analysis of foreign aid we theoretically develop and empirically estimate a preference model determining foreign aid donor behavior aid access and levels are separately determined by endogenous budgetary allocations the international economic environment the distribution of income between countries basic human needs the small country effect and regional bias we find fungibility of aid in recipient budgets is due to donor and recipient preferences despite the importance of other economic influences we find a significant pro poor country bias in aid allocations although little aggregate influence of basic human needs or regional bias the small country effect is significant for two of six donors jel f35 o19 h 77

urban safety in vancouver allocation and production of a congestible public good this paper is a simultaneous exploration of the within city production of safety with the endogenous allocation of public inputs police three issues are central one is an examination of the local government allocation function second is that safety is specified as a congestible public service consistent with club theory finally the model is estimated using a survey measure of crime these innovations are due to a unique data set containing observations by neighborhoods in the city of vancouver the results are crucial for illustrating crime deterrence as well as the local public good nature of safety

risk sharing within the extended family evidence from the indonesia family life survey abstractin recent years there has been an increase in the availability of longitudinal household surveys in developing countries that allow the researchers to construct linkages between households with familial ties this type of data allows researchers to look at whether some household outcomes are influenced by decisions made at the extended family level this article utilizes data from two waves of the indonesia family life survey 1997 and 2000 to construct a panel of extended families in order to focus on one particular example of such outcome whether consumption risk sharing occurs among households within the extended family the findings show that after controlling for the extended family fixed effects changes in the household s own income still matter for changes in its consumption rejecting full consumption risk insurance however the coefficients on household own income are small indicating significant degrees of risk sharing results from a set of reduced form estimations suggest that ho

remittances and portfolio values an inquiry using immigrants from africa europe and the americas summary using a recent spanish database we show that remittances respond to cross country differences in portfolio values behavior consistent with immigrant s access to trans national networks responsiveness to portfolio variables is found to persist regardless of education level there are however differences in the portfolio variables to which immigrants respond as we would expect given migrants diverse backgrounds region of origin and motive for emigrating remitting patterns are found to change with the length of migration spells suggestive that remittances sent for portfolio motives become more likely as the immediate needs of home family are addressed and asset accumulation becomes more important

optimal taxes and the structure of preferences if optimal tax theory is to be the basis for calculating tax rates a close understanding is required of the relationship between the structure of preferences and the configuration of optimal tax rates otherwise hypotheses chosen by the econometrician for practical convenience may completely determine the results independently of measurement this paper explores the relationship between various types of separability particularly weak and implicit separability and optimal tax rates in the various models discussed in the literature the use of distance functions and the antonelli matrix provides a significant unification of previously disparate results in the final analysis optimal tax theory should be the basis for actual calculation of tax rates although recently there have been great advances in theoretical results and in our understanding of their meaning we are still some way from a working knowledge of whether uniform commodity taxes are in practice optimal or if not which commodities should be discriminated against present theoretical formulae do not yield clear cut results except in special cases and it has recently become clear that optimal rates depend crucially on the detailed structure of consumer preferences for example atkinson and stiglitz 3 show that with an optimal nonlinear income tax discriminatory commodity taxes are only necessary to the extent that individual commodities are not weakly separable from leisure more recently deaton 6 has shown that a similar result holds for what is perhaps the most interesting of the standard models that where there are many consumers and only a linear income tax and proportional commodity taxes are allowed in this case separability between goods and leisure together with linear engel curves for goods removes the need for differential commodity taxation in consequence nothing can be learned about commodity taxes from consumer demand studies in which commodity demands are explained conditionally on total expenditure and commodity prices and which assume linear engel curves all such studies require separability from leisure as a maintained hypothesis and so are consistent with uniform commodity taxation these results suggest that the prospects for meaningful empirical calculations of tax rates are bleak econometricians estimating commodity demand and labor supply equations make generous use of separability assumptions to enable estimation at all in consequence it is likely that empirically calculated tax rates based on econometric estimates of parameters will be determined in structure not by the measurements actually made but by arbitrary untested and even unconscious hypotheses chosen by the econometrician for practical convenience to remedy this situation and as a prelude to fruitful empirical work it is necessary to have a more explicit understanding of how preference structure affects optimal tax rates such is the object of this paper three different

a computational procedure for calculating optimal commodity taxes with illustrative evidence from indian budget data a simple procedure for calculating optimal commodity taxes is proposed which takes into account the simultaneous interdependence of taxes expenditure and price levels responses the method also allows for the social marginal utility of income to depend on prices besides expenditures in a manner implied by the assumed preference functional form illustrative calculations on indian budget data provide evidence not only in favor of the procedure but of considerable sensitivity of directions of marginal tax reforms to the data set rural or urban used and of optimal tax estimates to demand functional form copyright 1989 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

the equity productivity tradeoff public school resources in brazil abstract a governmental welfare function is specified to explore the equity productivity tradeoff in the allocation of governmental schooling resources the constrained maximization model is estimated for brazil using expected incomes in each geographical area as the outcome of interest and governmental resources for each area as the input the equity productivity tradeoff in brazillian governmental preferences is estimated to be considerable with a welfare curvature close neither to the utilitarian nor to the rawlsian extremes but close to the intermediate cobb douglas value this implies neutral rather than reinforcing or compensating behavior in the allocation of governmental resources with the result that the distribution of such resources across areas is more equal than is that of expected incomes

threshold cointegration and causality relationship between energy use and growth in seven african countries abstract the paper investigates the long run and the causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for seven sub saharan african countries during the period 1970 2007 using the gregory and hansen 1996a 1996b testing approach to threshold cointegration we find that energy consumption is cointegrated with economic growth in cameroon cote d ivoire ghana nigeria and south africa moreover this test suggests that economic growth has a significant positive long run impact on energy consumption in these countries before 1988 and this effect becomes negative after 1988 in ghana and south africa furthermore causality tests suggest bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real gdp in cote d ivoire and unidirectional causality running from real gdp to energy usage in the case of congo and ghana

how responsive are private transfers to income evidence from a laissez faire economy abstract in recent years there has been burgeoning interest in how private transfers respond to household income or transfer derivatives much of it is fueled by the specter of crowding out the more responsive are private transfers the more likely they could be supplanted by expansions in public transfers weakening or destroying the latter s distributive impact yet there is also an emerging consensus that actual transfer derivatives are trivial at least for the united states suggesting that crowding out might loom larger in the minds of some economists than in the data but perhaps crowding out is a fait accompli in the united states accordingly we focus on the philippines which has a much smaller public sector we also pursue a novel theoretical angle which generates a sharp non linear relationship between private transfer receipts and income in the form of a spline our empirical work applies recently developed estimation techniques that treat the spline s threshold as an unknown parameter and they uncover transfer derivatives much larger than conventional methods reveal notably private transfers patterns are consistent with altruistic preferences effective risk sharing or both in accord with theoretical predictions however strong transfer derivatives prevail only among low income households our findings suggest that attempts to aid the poor could be thwarted by private responses which leak benefits to richer households in the form of lighter burdens of support for less fortunate kin so the problems that operative private transfers create for public redistribution policy first pointed out by becker and barro over 25 years ago do indeed matter empirically

voluntary income redistribution with migration abstract this paper examines theoretically the welfare magnet problem brought about by income redistribution in a small area where disparities across jurisdictions in transfer policies may induce both recipient and resource migration we show that the level of redistribution determined by majority rule may either rise or decline as household mobility increases and that this level will be either higher or lower than the efficient level to an extent that depends on local market conditions the social value of migrants and the mobility of both the rich and the poor in particular an economy may benefit from the immigration of transfer recipients we also derive the form of an efficient community specific subsidy to transfers which in some cases will be negative

how widespread are nonlinear crowding out effects the response of private transfers to income in four developing countries this article investigates the relationship between household income and private transfers received in developing countries if private transfers are unresponsive to household income there is less likelihood of expansions in public social security crowding out private transfers most literature finds that private transfers are unresponsive but this may be because responses have been obscured by the methods that ignore nonlinearities threshold regression techniques find such nonlinearity in the philippines and scope for serious crowding out with 30 80 of private transfers potentially displaced for low income households cox et al 2004 to see if these nonlinear effects occur more widely semiparametric and threshold regression methods are used to model private transfers in four developing countries china indonesia papua new guinea and vietnam the results reported in this article suggest that nonlinear crowding out effects are not important features of transfer behaviour in these countries the

tax reform and temporary inefficiency abstract if any type of direct income redistribution is permitted a very weak condition ensures that it will not be desirable or necessary to permit production inefficiency in the process of a pareto improving tax reform inefficiency arises in models which make an implausible set of assumptions about the range of policies available to the government

tobacco consumption and taxation in italy an application of the quaids model estimates are presented of the demand for tobacco in italy in the context of a demand system approach the grouping of goods is based on varian s non parametric test for weak separability the parametric demand model is banks blundell and lewbel s quaids model which combines the empirical flexibility of quadratic logarithmic engel curves with integrability estimation is by iterative gmm procedure the estimates are used in an analysis of welfare improving tax reforms which incorporates distributional data the results are discussed with respect to the special features of the italian tobacco market

a leaky bucket in the real world estimating inequality aversion using survey data existing evidence of inequality aversion relies on data from class room experiments where subjects face hypothetical questions this paper estimates the magnitude of inequality aversion using representative survey data with questions related to the real economy situations the respondents face the results reveal that inequality aversion can be measured in a meaningful way using survey data but the magnitudes of the estimates depend dramatically on how inequality aversion is measured no matter how measured the revealed inequality aversion predicts opinions on a wide range of questions related to the welfare state such as the level of taxation tax progressivity and the structure of unemployment benefits

social norms and gift behavior theory and evidence from romania in many developing and transitional countries with limited public income redistribution inter household transfers in general and gifts in particular are sizable and very important we use unique romanian survey data that enables us to isolate pure gifts from other private transfers we explicitly focus on the importance of community wide social norms and find that they indeed play a major role for both the occurrence and the values of gifts more exactly our results suggest that the overall predominant gift motive among romanian households is a norm of reciprocity moreover this norm seems to be dominating for gifts to middle and high income households even though poor households receive to the same extent norms of both impure altruism and reciprocity tend to be important hence although the poor may not reciprocate gifts to the same extent as the rich they still receive since there is a social norm to give especially to the poor

are remittances insurance evidence from rainfall shocks in the philippines several facts motivate this study first life in developing countries is prone to many kinds of risk such as crop and income loss due to natural disasters weather insect infestations and fire and civil conflict second international migration and remittance flows are substantial and growing between 1965 and 2000 individuals living outside their country of birth grew from 2 2 to 2 9 percent of the world population totaling 175 million people in 2000 the remittances that these migrants send to their countries of origin are an important but poorly understood type of international financial flow this article examines a mechanism for coping with shocks ex post on which previous micro level studies have not focused remittances from family members overseas at the international level it is commonly posited that remittance flows from overseas buffer economic shocks in migrants home countries but there have been relatively few empirical tests of this claim with micro level household data related research on the role of domestic migration in pooling risk within extended families includes lucas and stark 1985 rosenzweig and stark 1989 and paulson 2000

crime and local inequality in south africa the authors examine the effects of local inequality on property and violent crime in south africa their findings are consistent with economic theories relating inequality to property crime and also with sociological theories that imply that inequality leads to crime in general burglary rates are 20 30 percent higher in police station jurisdictions that are the wealthiest among their neighbors suggesting that criminals travel to neighborhoods where the expected returns from burglary are highest the authors do not find evidence that inequality between racial groups fosters interpersonal conflict at the local level

undominated directions of tax reform abstract this article considers the reform of a commodity tax system consumers preferences over directions of tax reform are constructed from indirect utility functions a wicksellian decision procedure is used to define a dominance relation on the set of directions of change direction x dominates direction y if and only if a everybody prefers x to y or b x is the status quo and at least one person prefers x to y a number of characterizations of undominated directions of change are provided a related unanimity rule procedure which does not single out the status quo for special treatment is also considered particular attention is paid to the issue of whether wicksellian reforms preserve production efficiency remarks on the relationship between this work previous work in optimal taxation theory and social choice theory are also provided

tariff design and reform in a revenue constrained economy theory and an illustration from india abstract this paper develops the theory of design and reform of protective tariffs in a revenue constrained small open economy characterized by learning by doing it shows that revenue raising requires wedges between consumer prices and shadow prices while protection when typically not achievable via subsidies directly targeted towards factor market distortions requires wedges between producer prices and shadow prices illustrative calculations in a modestly disaggregated general equilibrium model of india support the view that uniformity in protective tariffs is likely to be a reasonably good policy in situations where the government intends no discrimination within the sectors already identified for special treatment