interim news and the role of proxy voting advice this paper examines the information content and consequences of third party voting advice that arrives as news at an interim stage in corporate proxy contests we first document significant stock returns around announcements of proxy vote recommendations we then develop a multiequation empirical procedure for disentangling the price impact of prediction effects changes in contest outcome probabilities from the price impact of certification effects changes in outcome contingent valuations both effects are present in the data voting advice is both predictive about contest outcomes and informative about the ability of dissidents to add value consequently proxy advice plays a dual informational role

investor valuation of the abandonment option abstract we investigate whether investors price the option to abandon a firm at its exit value theory prices this real option as an american put with both a stochastic strike price exit value and a stochastic value of the underlying security the value of cash flows the empirical implications are that firm value increases in exit value after controlling for expected going concern cash flows and that more generalizable assets produce more abandonment option value using discounted earnings forecasts to proxy for expected cash flows and prior literature to categorize asset generalizability we find strong support for the predictions of abandonment option theory

heterogeneity and peer effects in mutual fund proxy voting this paper studies voting in corporate director elections we construct a comprehensive data set of 2 058 788 mutual fund votes over a two year period we find systematic heterogeneity in voting some funds are consistently more management friendly than others we also establish the presence of peer effects a fund is more likely to oppose management when other funds are more likely to oppose it all else being equal we estimate a voting model whose supermodular structure allows us to compute social multipliers due to peer effects heterogeneity and peer effects are as important in shaping voting outcomes as firm and director characteristics

information technology effects on firm performance as measured by tobin s q despite increasing anecdotal evidence that information technology it assets contribute to firm performance and future growth potential of firms the empirical results relating it investments to firm performance measures have been equivocal however the bulk of the studies have relied exclusively on accounting based measures of firm performance which largely tend to ignore it s contribution to performance dimensions such as strategic flexibility and intangible value in this paper we use tobin s q a financial market based measure of firm performance and examine the association between it investments and firm q values after controlling for a variety of industry factors and firm specific variables the results based on data from 1988 1993 indicate that in all of the five years the inclusion of the it expenditure variable in the model increased the variance explained in q significantly the results also showed that for all five years it investments had a significantly positive association with tobin s q value our results are consistent with the notion that it contributes to a firm s future performance potential which a forward looking measure such as the q is better able to capture

the intertemporal stability of the concentration margins relationship using a longitudinal data base we find that there has been a substantial narrowing of the spread between the price cost margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries including measures of macroeconomic fluctuations into standard price cost margin regressions we find significant differences in cyclical behavior across market structure we also explore a possible explanation unionization for differences in cyclical behavior finally we investigate the degree to which our results are affected by the potential simultaneity of concentration advertising and the price cost margin

the competitive effects of resale price maintenance the competitive effects of resale price maintenance rpm are theoretically diverse rpm can cause allocation distortions or promote productive efficiencies in the distribution process moreover extant cross sectional empirical evidence is incapable of distinguishing among the potentially disparate effects of rpm this paper conducts hypothesis tests of the alternative theories of rpm the empirical framework relates estimates of the effects of rpm for a cross section of observations to necessary conditions of the alternative models this analysis indicates that rpm is used both to foster cartels and promote efficiencies in the distribution process this result is consistent with the growing body of case study analysis that suggests that rpm is used for a variety of reasons this result also questions the current per se illegal status of rpm in the antitrust laws evidence is also provided concerning the strategic interaction between manufacturers and dealers in the distribution process and the use of financial data in analyzing propositions in industrial organization

foreign direct investment theories entry barriers and reverse investments in u s manufacturing industries this paper investigates empirically whether industrial organization oriented fdi theories explain the recent phenomenon of reverse foreign direct investment in the u s based on the distribution of fdi in two digit sic manufacturing industries we find that capital and advertising intensities act as entry barriers to foreign investments in the u s we also observe that foreign multinationals are attracted by the u s market size and that they invest heavily in industries with intensive r d combined with marketing efforts

size and performance of banking firms testing the predictions of theory abstract in recent years two important literatures on the theory of banking firms have developed one examines the economic functions of banks in environments in which agents are asymmetrically informed another considers the incentive effects moral hazard resulting from deposit insurance both theories make predictions about the relation between banking firm size and performance an empirical analysis of large bank holding companies investigates measures of market valuation and risk of failure limited support is provided for either set of theoretical predictions

outsourcing corporate governance conflicts of interest within the proxy advisory industry proxy advisory firms wield large influence with voting shareholders however conflicts of interest may arise when an advisor sells services to both investors and issuers using a unique data set o

the costs of shareholder activism evidence from a sequential decision model abstract this paper provides benchmarks for monitoring costs and evaluates the net returns to shareholder activism i model activism as a sequential decision process consisting of demand negotiations board representation and proxy contest and estimate the costs of each activism stage a campaign ending in a proxy fight has average costs of 10 71 million i find that the estimated monitoring costs reduce activist returns by more than two thirds the mean net activist return is close to zero but the top quartile of activists earns higher returns on their activist holdings than on their non activist investments the large sample evidence presented in this paper aids in understanding the nature and evolution of activist engagements

simulation based tests of forward looking models under var learning dynamics in this paper we propose a simulation based technique to investigate the finite sample performance of likelihood ratio lr tests for the nonlinear restrictions that arise when a class of forward looking fl models typically used in monetary policy analysis is evaluated with vector autoregressive var models we consider one shot tests to evaluate the fl model under the rational expectations hypothesis and sequences of tests obtained under the adaptive learning hypothesis the analysis is based on a comparison between the unrestricted and restricted var likelihoods and the p values associated with the lr test statistics are computed by monte carlo simulation we also address the case where the variables of the fl model can be approximated as non stationary cointegrated processes application to the hybrid new keynesian phillips curve nkpc in the euro area shows that i the forward looking component of inflation dynamics is much larger than the backward looking component and ii the sequence of restrictions implied by the cointegrated nkpc under learning dynamics is not rejected over the monitoring period 1984 2005 copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

the role of proxy advisory firms evidence from a regression discontinuity design proxy advisory firms have become important players in corporate governance but the extent of their influence over shareholder votes is debated we estimate the effect of institutional shareholder services iss recommendations on voting outcomes by exploiting exogenous variation in iss recommendations generated by a cutoff rule in iss voting guidelines using a regression discontinuity design we find that from 2010 to 2011 a negative iss recommendation on a say on pay proposal leads to a 25 percentage point reduction in say on pay voting support suggesting a strong influence over shareholder votes we also use our setting to examine the informational role of iss recommendations received april 13 2015 editorial decision june 13 2016 by editor itay goldstein

oligopoly profit sharing contracts and the firm s systematic risk abstract this article examines the properties of wage and profit sharing contracts in a model of oligopoly with capital market equilibrium while profit sharing contracts dominate market wage contracts profit sharing also reduces the firm s cost of equity capital under fairly broad conditions of oligopoly by enforcing lower costs in exchange for a pre determined share of cash flows to workers this form of operational leverage both reinforces the classical effect of market power on systematic risk and the impact of profit sharing on the corporate finance of the firm as previously suggested by ichino 1994 european economic review 38 1411 1422

market and industry structure and corporate cost of capital the impact of the structural attributes of industries on the cost of capital to constituent firms is examined within the framework of the capital asset pricing model capm the relationship between industry structure and systematic risk which the capm posits as the sole determinant of security returns is investigated using regression methodology the results show that industry characteristics such as capital intensity capital to labour ratio and entry barriers such as advertising have a significant influence on systematic risk and hence on the cost of capital to firms recent us studies e g sullivan 1982 have investigated the relationship between market power and the stock market return on equity using the capital asset pricing model capm within the capm framework investor required return is a linear function of systematic risk the impact of industry structure on expected return is therefore likely to be transmitted through investors perceptions of the relationship between the structural variables and firm systematic risk some recent theoretical studies have attempted to model such a relationship this paper reports an empirical examination of the predictions resulting from these and other related models for a sample of uk firms our results show that industry structural characteristics e g capital intensity have a significant influence on systematic risk and hence cost of capital of firms although the predictions of the extant theoretical models are only partly confirmed the next section identifies a number of microeconomic determinants of corporate systematic risk section iii discusses the methodology employed in the study section iv describes the sampling procedure and explanatory variables results are discussed in section v the final section provides a summary and the conclusions

beta market power and wage rate uncertainty this paper derives the formal relationship between a firm s beta and tobin s q ratio with both price and wage uncertainty present wage uncertainty is shown to affect the sign and magnitude of the relationship with q interpreted as an index of the market power while previous models suggest that systematic risk and market power are negatively related this result depends either on excluding wage uncertainty or on introducing it with unrealistic restrictions by deriving a more ambiguous relationship than other authors a plausible explanation of why empirical research has produced conflicting evidence of the sign of this relationship is provided copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

the cost of capital and the market power of firms reply and correction elements which can be specified when equation 4 was tested the variables used to measure financial leverage size operating leverage and growth were all significant at least at the 5 level in the expected direction but the market power variable then lost significance in the absence of an integrated theoretical model the relationship between market power and systematic risk can only be studied empirically the statistical results reported here suggest that powerful firms do not have any unusual ability to influence their cost of equity capital market power appears to have an impact on equity yields because of investors rational evaluation of managers operating and financial policies

firm growth and efficiency in the banking industry a new test of the efficient structure hypothesis abstract in this paper we propose a new test of the efficient structure es hypothesis which predicts that efficient firms come out ahead in competition and grow as a result our test has significant advantages over existing ones because it is more direct and can jointly test the so called quiet life hypothesis which predicts that in a concentrated market firms do not minimize costs we then apply this test to large banks in japan consistent with the es hypothesis we find that more efficient banks become larger we also find that market concentration reduces banks efficiency which supports the quiet life hypothesis these findings imply that there is an intriguing growth efficiency dynamic throughout banks life cycle although our findings also suggest that the es hypothesis dominates the quiet life hypothesis in terms of economic impact

the stability of uk risk measures and the problem of thin trading this paper examines the problems of estimating risk measures and their stability in thin markets it shows analytically that conventional approaches used in previous studies can lead to serious overestimates of the stability of risk measures when shares are subject to thin trading it then demonstrates using uk data that this is in fact a serious practical problem and that the resultant biases are of precisely the form predicted finally the paper presents reliable evidence on the stability of uk risk measures by using an estimation method designed to avoid thin trading bias using this approach risk measures are found to be as stable in the uk as they are in the usa this paper examines the stability of risk measures in the uk the focus is on providing reliable evidence in a market where many of the shares suffer from thin trading this is important because thin trading can seriously distort stability measures leading to incorrect conclusions indeed this is a problem which has almost certainly afflicted many previous studies of stability the paper makes four main contributions first it shows analytically that thin trading can lead to serious overstatements about stability second it uses uk data to illustrate that this is in fact a serious practical problem and that the biases are of precisely the form predicted this is important for anyone who wishes to interpret previous claims on beta stability in thin markets third the paper presents reliable evidence on the stability of uk betas by using an estimation method designed to avoid thin trading bias besides avoiding bias our

competition and bias we attempt to measure the effect of competition on bias in the context of analyst earnings forecasts which are known to be excessively optimistic because of conflicts of interest our natural experiment for competition is mergers of brokerage houses which result in the firing of analysts because of redundancy e g one of the two oil stock analysts is let go and other reasons such as culture clash we use this decrease in analyst coverage for stocks covered by both merging houses before the merger the treatment sample to measure the causal effect of competition on bias we find that the treatment sample simultaneously experiences a decrease in analyst coverage and an increase in optimism bias the year after the merger relative to a control group of stocks consistent with competition reducing bias the implied economic effect from our natural experiment is significantly larger than estimates from ols regressions that do not correct for the endogeneity of coverage this effect is much more significant for stocks with little initial analyst coverage or competition

business ties and proxy voting by mutual funds abstract the magnitude of mutual funds business ties with their portfolio firms is documented and is linked to funds proxy votes at specific firms and to overall voting practices aggregate votes at the fund family level indicate a positive relation between business ties and the propensity to vote with management votes at specific firms however reveal that funds are no more likely to vote with management of client firms than of non clients because the votes took place when funds knew their votes would be publicly scrutinized fund families with a larger client base may have adopted voting policies that led to less frequent opposition to management at all firms

in pursuit of monopoly power recent quantitative work in industrial economics this paper reviews empirical work in industrial organization devoted to the question of inferring the existence of monopoly power from data on observed market outcomes like profits and prices the discussion covers inter industry work long conventional in the area newer developments in intra industry analysis and case studies and concludes with some remarks on a small but growing body of work assessing market dynamics the wide range of studies reviewed all generally reveal that market power exists in many industries

frequentist evaluation of small dsge models this article proposes a new evaluation approach for the class of small scale hybrid new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium nk dsge models typically used in monetary policy and business cycle analysis the empirical assessment of the nk dsge model is based on a conditional sequence of likelihood based tests conducted in a vector autoregressive var system in which both the low and high frequency implications of the model are addressed in a coherent framework if the low frequency behavior of the original time series of the model can be approximated by nonstationary processes stationarity must be imposed by removing the stochastic trends this gives rise to a set of recoverable unit roots cointegration restrictions in addition to the short run cross equation restrictions the procedure is based on the sequence lr1 lr2 lr3 where lr1 is the cointegration rank test lr2 is the cointegration matrix test and lr3 is the cross equation restrictions test lr2 is computed conditional on lr

sics as delineators of economic markets the standard industrial classification sic is often used to divide firms into homogeneous markets firms classified into the same n 1 digit sic are thought to be more homogeneous than firms sharing only the same n digit sic this study measures how well the sic succeeds at combining firms into homogeneous economic markets assuming that firms in more similar economic markets should display more similar sales changes profit rates or stock price changes than firms in less similar economic markets the author finds that the sic is not successful at identifying firms with such similar characteristic variables copyright 1989 by the university of chicago

q and the tax bias theory abstract a growing body of literature analyzes the variation in q the ratio of financial market value to asset current replacement cost and makes inferences about attributes such as monopoly power profitability managerial performance etc these studies ignore potential biases embedded in q that result from non neutral tax policies this study examines the association between q and tax biases and establishes that differences in accumulated depreciation tax shields explain significant variation in q the implication that q should be adjusted for tax biases before use in empirical research is examined further adjusting q for tax biases at least with the factors herein leads only to minor changes in econometric analyses

reputation and competition this paper shows how competition generates reputation building behavior in repeated interactions when the product quality observed by consumers is a noisy signal of firms effort level there are two types of firms and good firms try to distinguish themselves from bad firms although consumers get convinced that firms which are repeatedly successful in providing high quality are good firms competition endogenously generates the outside option inducing disappointed consumers to leave firms this threat of exit induces good firms to choose high effort allowing good reputations to be valuable but its uncompromising execution forces good firms out of the market jel c7 d8

when the levee breaks black migration and economic development in the american south abstract in the american south postbellum economic development may have been restricted in part by white landowners access to low wage black labor this paper examines the impact of the great mississippi flood of 1927 on black out migration and subsequent agricultural development flooded counties experienced an immediate and persistent out migration of black population over time landowners in flooded counties modernized agricultural production and increased its capital intensity relative to landowners in nearby similar non flooded counties landowners resisted black out migration however benefiting from the status quo system of labor intensive agricultural production jel j15 j43 n32 n52 n92 q54 r23

small sample inference in rational expectations models with persistent data abstract this paper shows that in rational expectations res models accurate small sample inference in the presence of persistent variables can be explicitly derived using the mapping between the rational expectations hypothesis reh restrictions and the parameters on the stationary and persistent variables an application to the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc demonstrates that the persistence in the data leads to large size distortion and power loss of commonly used tests

european inflation dynamics abstract we provide evidence on the fit of the new phillips curve npc for the euro area over the period 1970 1998 and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of european inflation dynamics with those observed in the u s we also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs as well as that of its two main components namely labor productivity and real wages some of the findings can be summarized as follows a the npc fits euro area data very well possibly better than u s data b the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial but in line with survey evidence and u s estimates c inflation dynamics in the euro area appear to have a stronger forward looking component i e less inertia than in the u s d labor market frictions as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and consequently inflation in europe

identification issues in forward looking models estimated by gmm with an application to the phillips curve limited information methods are commonly used to estimate forward looking models with rational expectations such as the new keynesian phillips curve of gal and gertler 1999 in this paper we address issues of identiflcation that have been overlooked due to the incompleteness of the single equation formulation we show that problems of weak instruments may arise depending on the properties of the exogenous variables and that they are empirically relevant we also uncover a link between identiflcation and dynamic mis speciflcation and examine the lack of power of hansen s 1982 j test to detect invalid over identifying restrictions with regards to the new phillips curve we flnd that problems of identiflcation cannot be ruled out and they deserve further attention

corporate monopoly power and risk abstract the relationship between monopoly power and concentration may be influenced by the riskiness of the firm two related issues are considered in this paper the impact of market structure and conduct on the risk of the firm and the impact of risk upon the relationship between profitability and concentration an a priori relationship between risk market structure and profitability is derived within the mean variance framework of the capital asset pricing model

a simple recursive forecasting model abstract we compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models a simple constant gain algorithm used widely in the learning literature both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the survey of professional forecasters

conflict of interest and the credibility of underwriter analyst recommendations brokerage analysts frequently comment on and sometimes recommend companies that their firms have recently taken public we show that stocks that underwriter analysts recommend perform more poorly than buy recommendations by unaffiliated brokers prior to at the time of and subsequent to the recommendation date we conclude that the recommendations by underwriter analysts show significant evidence of bias we show also that the market does not recognize the full extent of this bias the results suggest a potential conflict of interest inherent in the different functions that investment bankers perform

an empirical study of selected factors influencing the decision to list on foreign stock exchanges the growing internationalization of capital markets suggests that an increasing number of firms perceive the benefits of listing their stocks on foreign exchanges as outweighing the related costs many other firms however still limit listing their securities to their domestic exchanges this study investigates the motives for listing abroad the empirical analyses based on data on 481 multinationals indicate significant association between the likelihood of listing abroad and 1 the relative size of a firm in its domestic capital market 2 the ratio of foreign to total sales

trend inflation indexation and inflation persistence in the new keynesian phillips curve purely forward looking versions of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc generate too little inflation persistence some authors add ad hoc backward looking terms to address this shortcoming we hypothesize that inflation per sistence results mainly from variation in the long run trend component of inflation which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy we derive a version of the nkpc that incorporates a time varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflation when drift in trend inflation is taken into account a purely forward looking version of the model fits the data well and there is no need for backward looking components jel e12 e31 e52 in this paper we consider the extent to which guillermo calvo s 1983 model of nominal price rigidities can explain inflation dynamics without relying on arbitrary backward looking terms in its baseline formulation the calvo model leads to a purely forward looking new keynesian

nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns we develop and evaluate sequential testing tools for a class of nonparametric tests for predictability of financial returns that include in particular the directional accuracy and excess profitability tests our sequential methods consider in a unified framework both retrospection of a historical sample and monitoring newly arriving data to this end we focus on linear monitoring boundaries that are continuations of horizontal lines corresponding to retrospective critical values elaborating on both two sided and one sided testing we run a simulation study and illustrate the methodology by testing for directional and mean predictability of returns in young stock markets in eastern europe

excess market value the multinational corporation and tobin s q ratio the results of this study show that there is a positive and significant relationship between excess market value of multinational corporations and the degree of international involvement as measured by foreign sales percentage however the excess market value is not determined by the number of foreign subsidiaries nor the interaction between foreign sales and the number of foreign subsidiaries the relationship between excess market value and the two frequently used measures of monopoly power concentration ratio and the lerner index was also examined this study found that the lerner index contributes significantly in explaining excess market value but concentration ratio does not furthermore the positive and significant coefficients of advertising and r d intensity serve as evidence that product market imperfections appear to play a bigger role in explaining the excess market value experienced by mncs during our sample period

diversification ricardian rents and tobin s q according to prevailing theory firms diversify in response to excess capacity of factors that are subject to market failure by probing into the heterogeneity of these factors we develop the corollary that firms that elect to diversify most widely should expect the lowest average rents an empirical test with tobin s q as the measure of rents is consistent with this theory

advertising price and welfare evidence from the u s brewing industry the welfare effect of advertising has been a subject of controversy among economists for some time one obvious concern is simply the cost of advertising in 1990 for example americans spent 130 1 billion on advertising to put this figure into perspective this amounted to 523 per capita 2 35 percent of gross national product and roughly 80 percent of the national deficit 1 much of the early debate regarding the social desirability of advertising stems from different preconceptions regarding its purpose 13 14 8 49 for example according to the kaldor 29 hypothesis advertising is primarily persuasive or deceptive in nature it changes consumer preferences creates brand loyalty and persuades consumers to favor commodities that they did not previously desire an opinion survey by bauer and greyser 5 indicates that consumers believe that much of advertising is persuasive and greyser and reece 27 158 find that 85 percent of the over 2 700 harvard business review subscribers surveyed believe that advertising persuades people to buy things they do not need if advertising is purely deceptive then it can be classified as a bad and reduces welfare

stochastic trends and economic fluctuations in a small open economy in this paper we describe how restricted vector autoregressions can be employed to examine the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations we show how cointegration restrictions can be used to identify a var system with common stochastic trends subject to transitory and permanent changes in average growth and how we may investigate the system s responses to permanent shocks i e to innovations to the trends theoretical cointegration vectors are derived from a small open economy growth model for terms of trade real gdp real consumption and real investments applying these methods to swedish annual data 1875 1986 we find that permanent real supply shocks account for most of the fluctuations in gdp even in the short run