aggregate investment and consistent intertemporal technologies it is frequent practice to model an industry or economy as if it were a single agent solving a single optimization problem a model of firm behavior which has had extensive use as an aggregative model is the adjustment cost model of investment we assume there are a number of competitive firms in an industry that choose investment paths to maximize their present value the technologies of the firms exhibit capital stock adjustment costs for general concave technologies of the firms there is no aggregate concave technology that can represent the technological possibilities available to the industry we find conditions on the technologies of the firms that are necessary and sufficient for the existence of an aggregate technology that can consistently model the industry s behavior and discuss their empirical implications

energy market liberalization and renewable energy policies in oecd countries abstract this paper investigates the effect of energy liberalization compared to other drivers on policies that support renewable energy in a long panel of oecd countries we estimate this effect by accounting for the endogeneity of liberalization related to joint decisions within a country s energy strategy using regulation in other industries as instruments we find that energy liberalization increases public support for renewable energy the effect of liberalization is the second largest after the effect of per capita income and is mostly driven by reductions in entry barriers while the effect of privatization is unclear this finding suggests that a reduction in the monopolistic power of state owned utilities has a positive effect on renewable energy policies when various types of actors are ensured access to the grid instead of it being provided to only a few large private firms

a race to liberalization diffusion of economic policy reform among oecd economies most oecd economies witnessed a liberalization of economic policies over the past thirty years the present paper examines to what extent this development is caused by domestic political and economic factors on the one hand and international policy diffusion via competitive interaction of governments on the other employing a comprehensive index of economic reform it can be shown that policy diffusion is a driving factor for economic liberalization especially in the fields of regulatory monetary and trade policies we find significant interdependence of policy choices as suggested by theories of policy diffusion

liberalizing trade in financial services the uruguay round and the arab countries summary as a result of the uruguay round members of the world trade organization wto are committed to initiating gradual liberalization in their service sectors i e to opening their markets to foreign service suppliers the purpose of this paper is to examine the prospects and problems of trade liberalization in financial services in the arab countries the paper draws on the theoretical contributions outlining the case for financial liberalization in developing countries it reviews the recent performance structure and regulation of the banking systems in some arab countries the main conclusion is that arab countries do not meet the prerequisites for successful financial liberalization there is a clear need for internal reform of the financial systems first before opening up to external competition

the rise and fall of the washington consensus as a paradigm for developing countries abstract the introduction of the washington consensus involved not simply a swing from state led to market oriented policies but also a shift in the ways in which development problems were framed and in the types of explanation through which policies were justified key changes were the partial globalization of development policy analysis and a shift from historicism to ahistorical performance assessment the main challenge to this approach is a latent southern consensus which is apparent in the convergence between east asian developmentalism and latin american neostructuralism the demise of the washington consensus is inevitable because its methodology and ideology are in contradiction

war and rivalry among great powers we combine analysis of rivalry with consideration of a possible selection bias we discover that what makes great powers more likely to be rivals is statistically related to their propensity to experience war a censored probit allows simultaneous estimation of the influence of six covariates on the probability great powers experience rivalry and war while controlling for statistical linkage between the two dependent variables consequently we recast some past research for example contiguity and parity actually reduce the probability of war between great power rivals once we control for their influence on the probability great powers are rivals in the first place our results compliment other research highlighting various problems of selection bias in world politics and suggest a new direction for future research on rivalry e draw together two literatures about processes in international politics a growing literature concerned with various selectionrelated inferential threats recommends we pay as much attention to how cases get into our datasets as we do to what occurs in those cases a large literature on rivalry analyzes pairs of states repeatedly experiencing conflict both literatures highlight the importance of process in international conflict by process we mean linked instances sequentially and cumulatively resulting in outcomes although many conflict processes likely exist we investigate linkages across a process of the occurrence of rivalry and the onset of war we believe the existence of rivalry and the onset of war are linked expressions of one underlying process and argue that treating them in this way may teach us much the literature on selection effects within international politics helps us produce more valid estimates of what makes rivals escalate their relations to war while interstate rivalry provides a powerful example of where methodological concerns about selection can inform the development of theory in international politics

nash equilibria in models of fiscal competition abstract this paper analyzes nash equilibria in a simple model of an economy with jurisdictions engaging in fiscal competition small number nash equilibria in which tax rates are the strategic variables are shown not to coincide with nash equilibria in which public expenditure levels are the strategic variables

structure behavior and voter turnout in the united states electoral participation in the united states is examined to provide a clearer account of the effect of the registration requirement on individual voting behavior pooling nes data from 1980 1984 and 1988 i first model with traditional and selection bias techniques the full electorate to distinguish among three groups nonregistrants registered nonvoters and voters analyses limited to recent movers then reported to understand more fully the forces associated with the actual decision calculi of registering and voting the influences of many factors commonly accepted as important determinants of voting are disentangled and their effect at each stage is ascertained factors yielding inconsistent effects in previ research or believed to be unimportant such as race gender attitudes toward the candidates and trust government are shown to deserve closer scrutiny by electoral scholars

when liberal policies reflect external shocks what do we learn abstract we present a model where policies of free capital mobility can signal governments future policies but the informativeness of the signal depends on the path of world interest rates capital flows to emerging markets reflect investors perception of these markets political risk with low world interest rates emerging markets experience a capital inflow and engage in a widespread policy of free capital mobility with higher rates only sufficiently committed countries allow free capital mobility whereas others impose controls to trap capital onshore thus signaling future policies affecting capital mobility these predictions are consistent with the recent experience of capital flows and policies affecting capital mobility in developing countries

theories of policy diffusion lessons from latin american pension reform what accounts for the waves of policy diffusion that increasingly sweep across regions of the world why do many diverse countries adopt similar changes focusing on the spread of chilean style pension privatization in latin america this article assesses the relative merit of four theoretical explanations that scholars of diffusion have proposed as the principal mechanism driving innovations spread these approaches emphasize external pressures emanating especially from international financial institutions the quest for symbolic or normative legitimacy rational learning and cost benefit calculation and cognitive heuristics respectively the article assesses which one of these frameworks can best account for the three distinctive features of diffusion namely its wavelike temporal pattern its geographical clustering and the spread of similarity amid diversity while several approaches contribute to understanding policy diffusion the analysis suggests that the cognitive psychological framework offers a particularly persuasive account of the spread of pension reform

market oriented institutions and policies and economic growth a critical survey this paper surveys recent evidence suggesting that market oriented institutions and policies are strongly related to economic growth focusing on studies using the economic freedom ef indicator of the fraser institute this index is critically discussed also various serious shortcomings of empirical studies using this index are identified nevertheless there are strong indications that liberalization i e an increase in the ef index stimulates economic growth this paper also reviews studies on the determinants of ef political liberalization is often found to enhance economic liberalization whereas there is less evidence for causality running in the other direction

trade based diffusion of labor rights a panel study 1986 2002 this article investigates the nature of the linkages between trade and labor rights in developing countries specifically we hypothesize that a california effect serves to transmit superior labor standards from importing to exporting countries in a manner similar to the transmission of environmental standards we maintain that all else being equal the labor standards of a given country are influenced not by its overall level of trade openness but by the labor standards of its trading partners we evaluate our hypothesis using a panel of 90 developing countries over the period 1986 2002 and we separately examine the extent to which the labor laws and the actual labor practices of the countries are influenced by those of their export destinations we find that strong legal protections of collective labor rights in a country s export destinations are associated with more stringent labor laws in the exporting country this california effect finding is however weaker in the context of labor rights practices highlighting the importance of distinguishing between formal legislation and actual implementation of labor rights

remodeling the competition for capital how domestic politics erases the race to the bottom this paper proposes and tests a new formal model of the competition for capital using the analogy of a tournament as a substitute for the race to the bottom model our key insight is that political costs that accompany legislating have both direct and indirect effects on the likelihood and scale of reforms while countries with higher political costs are less likely themselves to enact reforms the presence of these costs also reduces competing countries incentives to reform regardless of their own political costs domestic politics therefore mitigates the pressures for downward convergence of tax policy despite increased capital mobility we examine the capital tax policies in oecd countries during the period from 1980 to 1997 and find that states are sensitive to tax reforms in competitor countries although their responses to reforms are mediated by their own domestic costs to reform we define two potential sources of political costs of reform transaction costs due to the presence of multiple veto players in the legislative process and constituency costs due to ideological opposition to policy changes that benefit capital our evidence reveals that a reduction in these costs either domestically or abroad increases the likelihood that a country enacts tax reforms hat are the policy consequences of the elimination of various barriers to international capital and labor mobility robert frost in mending wall instructed that good fences make good neighbors scholars have increasingly expressed this sentiment s converse i e the pessimistic viewpoint that as the mobility of factors of production increases international competition assumes a beggar thy neighbor character when fences separate countries and make it difficult for factors of production to move from country to country governments can operate essentially as monopolistic suppliers of services governments can extract a price from the owners of productive resources in the form of taxes or can place regulatory restrictions on production without fear that factors of production will emigrate when the fences fall and governments must compete with each other for the same resources a state s or country s ability to tax or regulate diminishes in the extreme countries lose sovereignty over domestic policymaking e g andrews 1994 and lee and mckenzie 1989 the model that most scholars employ implicitly or explicitly to understand international or interstate competition is known commonly by its central prediction the race to the bottom e g oates 1972

why are stabilizations delayed when a stabilization has significant distributional implications e g tax increases to eliminate a large budget deficit socioeconomic groups may attempt to shift the burden of stabilization onto other groups the process leading to stabilization becomes a war of attrition each group attempting to wait the others out and stabilization occurring only when one group concedes and bears a disproportionate share of the burden the authors solve for the expected time of stabilization in a model of rational delay and relate it to several political and economic variables they motivate this approach and its results by comparison to historical and current episodes copyright 1991 by american economic association

economic freedom and government ideology across the german states potrafke n economic freedom and government ideology across the german states regional studies this paper examines whether government ideology influenced economic freedom across the german states the results show that in former west germany rightwing governments promoted economic freedom whereas leftwing governments confined it in the former east germany however rightwing governments were not associated with propagating economic freedom this finding appears to conflict with the common notion of policy convergence at the federal level in fact the observed variation in political preferences across states may indicate that politicians gratify the local electorate and in return offer moderate policies at the federal level potrafke n potrafke n la liberte economique et l ideologie du gou

capital rules the domestic politics of international regulatory harmonization in the past fifteen years financial regulators from the developed world have attempted to create international regulatory standards in a variety of financial issue areas their negotiations are notable for the stark variation in the preferences of regulators toward international regulatory harmonization certain regulators actively resist any attempts at regulatory harmonization while others are vocal in their advocacy for an international agreement when will regulators seek to harmonize their rules with their foreign counterparts i propose a principal agent framework for analyzing regulator behavior that views international harmonization as a means of satisfying domestic political pressures the framework predicts that regulators are more likely to seek international regulatory harmonization when confidence in the stability of financial institutions is declining and when competitive pressures are increasing from foreign firms facing less stringent regulations i explore the consistency of the framework with two important cases in the history of international financial regulation the negotiations among bank regulators leading up to the 1988 basel accord on bank capital adequacy and the negotiations among securities regulators over capital adequacy for securities firms between 1988 and 1992 i thank gabe aguilera david bach ethan bueno de mesquita dan carpenter bill clark mark copelovitch jeff frieden dan gingerich dan ho devesh kapur joseph n r sanberg ross schaap allan stam matt stephenson two anonymous reviewers and the editors of io for helpful comments discussions and feedback i am also indebted to the thirty current and former regulators and financial industry executives who participated in interviews to advance this project finally i thank the weatherhead center for international affairs and the center for european studies for research funding

adjustment costs and factor demands in canadian manufacturing industries the question of whether regional disparities in canada could arise as a result of nonconstant returns to scale and non identical production functions is examined this is accomplished by estimating and comparing the decision rules for factor demands across canadian regions the decision rules are based on a flexible and dynamic production technology which allows for the presence of internal adjustment costs do not impose constant returns to scale or require hours and workers to have the same output elasticities the model is estimated for four separate canadian regions ontario quebec the western and eastern provinces on annual data ranging from 1965 to 1985

does government ideology influence deregulation of product markets empirical evidence from oecd countries this paper examines how government ideology has influenced deregulation of product markets in oecd countries i analyze a dataset of non manufacturing regulation indicators covering energy transport and communication industries in 21 oecd countries over the 1980 2003 period and employ two different indices of government ideology the results suggest that government ideology has had a strong influence on the deregulation process market oriented governments promoted the deregulation of the energy transport and communication industries this finding identifies remarkable differences between leftist and rightwing governments concerning the role of government in the economy and basic elements of political order

does flexibility promote cooperation an application to the global trade regime do flexibility provisions in international agreements clauses allow ing for legal suspension of concessions without abrogating the treaty promote coop eration recent work emphasizes that provisions for relaxing treaty commitments can ironically make states more likely to form agreements and make deeper conces sions when doing so this argument has particularly been applied to the global trade regime the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt and its successor the world trade organization wto yet the field has not produced much evidence bearing on this claim our article applies this claim to the global trade regime and its chief flexibility provision antidumping in contrast to prior work this article explic itly models the endogeneity and selection processes envisioned by the theory we find that states joining the wto are more likely to adopt domestic antidumping mech anisms likewise corrected for endogeneity states able to take advantage of the regime s principal flexibility provision by having a domestic antidumping mecha nism in place are significantly more likely to 1 join the wto 2 agree to more tightly binding tariff commitments and 3 implement lower applied tariffs as well

investment adjustment costs an empirical assessment we evaluate empirical evidence for costs that penalize changes in investment using us industry data in aggregate models such investment adjustment costs have been introduced to help account for a variety of business cycle and asset market phenomena so far no attempt has been made to estimate these costs directly at a disaggregated level we consider an industry model with investment adjustment costs and estimate its parameters using generalized methods of moments the ndings indicate small costs associated with changing the ow of investment at the industry level the weighted average of the industry elasticities with respect to the shadow price of capital which depends inversely on the adjustment cost parameter is more than seven times larger than the largest estimate based on aggregate data we examine potential sources which may account for the large industry aggregate dierence overall our results suggest

neither miti nor america the political economy of capital liberalization in japan compared with japan no other industrialized country has so adamantly denied foreign investors direct access to its domestic markets japan continued to deny such market access until domestic constituencies finally championed foreign demands and successfully pressured a reluctant state for concessions the initiative for these concessions came neither from japan s principal government negotiators in the ministry of international trade and industry miti nor from public policymakers in america rather it came from american and other multinational corporations mncs seeking to exploit imperfect markets for the technology and related assets which they alone controlled and which a few japanese oligopolists demanded these local oligopolists served as manipulative intermediaries between mncs and the nationstate and in that position determined both the timing and the substance of their country s long march toward capital liberalization between the legislation of capital controls in 1950 and the de jure elimination of those controls in 1980 what began as an extension of limited concessions to individual mncs eventually aided by small regulatory loopholes gradually encompassed all foreigners supplying broad product groups during the intervening thirty years the mncs examined in this article including coca cola ibm texas instruments and the big three u s automakers finally gained limited access to the japanese market for them the formal liberalizations of the late 1960s and early 1970s proved significant but not always decisive as japanese oligopolists moved both to replace public regulations with private restrictions and to mesh their ongoing political influence domestically with their emerging economic power internationally thus de facto liberalization proceeded slowly and unevenly at least through 1980 and foreign direct investment in japan continued to languish what capital liberalization did occur had little to do with the pressures exerted on miti and the japanese state by the u s government and the international organizations that america then controlled rather american diplomacy proved successful in forcing concessions from japan only when it was backed up both by the economic power of american mncs and by the active support of japanese business

distinguished lecture on economics in government the private uses of public interests incentives and institutions as a long time student of the public sector i welcomed the opportunity to come to washington as a member of the council of economic advisers and later to become the chairman of the council partly because it gave me an opportunity to study at first hand this immensely important part of our economy and society and to test my ideas against the reality of government in action to be sure i came also as an activist if not with a fully articulated agenda at least with a view about what it was that government should and should not be doing my reference point was the fundamental theorems of welfare economics which as some describe them proved that the market left to itself would produce efficient allocations many saw in these theorems the vindication of adam smith s faith in the invisible hand leading the self interested decisions of each person to maximize the well being of the nation as a whole today many of us look at the fundamental theorem not as a description of the world but as an explication of the conditions under which a market equilibrium will be pareto efficient these conditions are quite strong the importance of some of the more explicit assumptions like the lack of externalities and the completeness of markets has long been known in the last two decades we have explored much more seriously the consequences of the informational assumptions implicit in the belief that markets are efficient in particular it has been shown that in the presence of imperfect information or incomplete markets the economy will not be pareto efficient in other words there joseph stiglitz is senior vice president and chief economist world bank washington d c stiglitz was a member of the council of economic advisers from 1993 95 and chairman

simple tests of distributional effects on macroeconomic equations the presence of distributional effects in macroeconomic equations is shown to coincide with nonlinearity in micro behavioral relationships parameters estimated with aggregate data as in representative agent models contain distributional biases that are not measurable using aggregate data alone tests for distributional effects and other measures of the extent of aggregation problems are derived using distributional data observed over time significant distributional effects are noted for a model of annual aggregate u s commodity expenditure data a static model that accommodates individual heterogeneity is found to be statistically equivalent to a simply dynamic model that accommodates first order autocorrelation

the political economy of financial internationalization in the developing world in the last decade a growing number of developing countries have opened their financial systems by liberalizing capital flows and the rules governing the international operations of financial intermediaries one explanation of this rush toward greater financial internationalization is that increasing interdependence generates domestic and foreign political pressures for capital account liberalization while we find evidence for that hypothesis we find that the proximate cause in developing countries more frequently is found in balance of payments crises politicians perceive that financial openness in the face of crisis can increase capital inflows by indicating to foreign investors that they will be able to liquidate their investments and by signaling government intentions to maintain fiscal and monetary discipline the argument is explored through case studies of chile indonesia mexico and south korea

costs of adjustment the aggregation problem and investment this paper looks at the empirical consequences of inappropriately using a representative firm to mimic the aggregate investment decisions of a group of heterogeneous firms faced with costs of adjusting capital inputs improper aggregation generates a bias with two important consequences 1 an apparent insensitivity of the aggregate capital stock to the user cost of capital and 2 predicted responses of the capital stock to shocks that are considerably slower than observed both of these consequences are features of available investment equations copyright 1992 by mit press

understanding economic policy reform one of the eventual consequences of the global debt crisis was a wave of market oriented economic reforms this paper discusses the state of our knowledge on the political economy of this process why were inefficient and often unsustainable policies maintained for so long why are so many governments reforming now after decades of adherence to policies of an opposite kind have the reformers internalized the correct lessons from the east asian experience finally are there any helpful rules for reformers to follow in guiding their policies through complicated political terrain

strategic fiscal interaction among oecd countries this paper investigates whether oecd countries compete with each other for mobile factors by using various fiscal tax spending policy instruments we use a panel dataset of 20 oecd countries over the 1982 2000 period results reveal evidence that international capital inflows fdi are affected by fiscal policy at home and abroad also there is evidence that domestic capital tax rates react i positively to changes in capital tax rates in neighboring countries and ii negatively to changes in public investment spending in neighboring countries in contrast strategic interdependence over public investment spending decisions is not established

the multivariate flexible accelerator model its empirical restrictions and an application to u s manufacturing this paper derives an exhaustive set of restrictions implied by the multistock flexible accelerator specification of the adjustment cost model for the firm the flexible accelerator specification of the demand for capital and labor is estimated using u s manufacturing annual data for the 1947 1976 period the consistency of the data with the model is examined by testing the validity of the derived restrictions finally the conditions which permit aggregation over firms are determined and tested empirically the flexible accelerator specification has been popular in the empirical literature on interrelated investment and employment decisions see nadiri and rosen 38 coen and hickman 10 and schramm 40 more recent examples include sargent 39 berndt fuss and wavermann 4 berndt and morrison 6 and meese 34 under suitable assumptions the specification may be rationalized by the adjustment cost model of the firm eisner and strotz 13 lucas 30 mortensen 35 extends the work of lucas and derives some empirically testable restrictions of the accelerator specification that are implied by the adjustment cost framework the broad objective of this paper is to provide a more rigorous and comprehensive test of the adjustment cost model than is presently found in the literature this objective is achieved in three stages first we offer an alternative derivation of the mortensen restrictions and more importantly we prove theorem 1 that his restrictions are exhaustive i e we establish an integrability result for the flexible accelerator adjustment cost model second the flexible accelerator specification of the demand for capital and labor is estimated using total u s manufacturing annual data for the 1947 76 period it is assumed that firms minimize expected production costs subject to a technology which implies that capital and labor stocks are costly to adjust while a third factor materials is freely adjustable the consistency of the data with the adjustmentcost framework is examined by testing for the validity of the derived restrictions further we test the validity of some separability restrictions on the adjustmentcost technology that to varying degrees are imposed a priori in all of the cited empirical studies finally we provide a complete characterization of the individual firm technologies which justify the common assumption of the existence of a representative firm this problem of aggregation over firms which has been

the globalization of liberalization policy diffusion in the international political economy one of the most important developments over the past three decades has been the spread of liberal economic ideas and policies throughout the world these policies have affected the lives of millions of people yet our most sophisticated political economy models do not adequately capture influences on these policy choices evidence suggests that the adoption of liberal economic practices is highly clustered both temporally and spatially we hypothesize that this clustering might be due to processes of policy diffusion we think of diffusion as resulting from one of two broad sets of forces one in which mounting adoptions of a policy alter the benefits of adopting for others and another in which adoptions provide policy relevant information about the benefits of adopting we develop arguments within these broad classes of mechanisms construct appropriate measures of the relevant concepts and test their effects on liberalization and restriction of the current account the capital account and the exchange rate regime our findings suggest that domestic models of foreign economic policy making are insufficient the evidence shows that policy transitions are influenced by international economic competition as well as the policies of a country s sociocultural peers we interpret the latter influence as a form of channeled learning reflecting governments search for appropriate models for economic policy

arch models properties estimation and testing abstract the aim of this survey paper is to provide an account of some of the important developments in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch model since its inception in a seminal paper by engle 1982 this model takes account of many observed properties of asset prices and therefore various interpretations can be attributed to it we start with the basic arch models and discuss their different interpretations arch models have been generalized in different directions to accommodate more and more features of the real world we provide a comprehensive treatment of many of the extensions of the original arch model next we discuss estimation and testing for arch models and note that these models lead to some interesting and unique problems there have been numerous applications and we mention some of these as we present different models the paper includes a glossary of the acronyms for the models we describe

the econometric analysis of models with risk terms summary in this paper we have attempted to provide an integrated approach to the estimation of models with risk terms it was argued that there exist orthogonality conditions between variables in the information set and higher order moments of the unanticipated variable density these could be exploited to provide consistent estimators of the parameters associated with the risk term specifically it was recommended that an iv estimator should be applied with instruments constructed from the information set four existing methods commonly used to estimate models with risk terms are examined and applications of the techniques are made to the estimation of the risk term in the us c exchange market and the effects of price uncertainty upon production

do countries compete over corporate tax rates this paper tests whether oecd countries compete with each other over corporate taxes in order to attract investment we develop two models with firm mobility countries compete only over the statutory tax rate or the effective average tax rate while with capital mobility countries compete only over the effective marginal tax rate we estimate the parameters of reaction functions using data from 21 countries between 1983 99 we find evidence that countries compete over all three measures but particularly over the statutory tax rate and the effective average tax rate this is consistent with a belief amongst governments that location choices by multinational firms are discrete we also find evidence of concave reaction functions consistent with the model outlined in the paper

investment under uncertain market conditions this paper studies the responsiveness of firm investment to shocks in the input factor and output prices the market conditions by using stock market information on excess returns the q theory of investment is modified to allow for heterogeneous capital ex post inflexible technology and irreversible investment a structural model linking the excess returns to a firm s equity to the firm s investment history and the evolution of the market conditions is estimated using a panel of u s manufacturing firms the estimates of the cost of adjusting tile capital stock are economically sensible they imply a high degree of sensitivity of investment to fundamental variables that affect the profitability of capital such as the market conditions and the purchase price of capital copyright 1995 by mit press

hands off my regime governments restrictions on foreign aid to non governmental organizations in poor and middle income countries many resource strapped developing country governments seek international aid but when that assistance is channeled through domestic civil society it can threaten their political control as a result in the last two decades 39 of the world s 153 low and middle income countries have adopted laws restricting the inflow of foreign aid to domestically operating nongovernmental organizations ngos governments recognize that such laws harm their international reputations for supporting democracy and may invite donor punishment in terms of aid reductions yet they perceive foreign aid to ngos as supporting political opponents and threatening their grip on power in the aftermath of competitive electoral victories governments often take new legal steps to limit these groups funding we test this argument on an original dataset of laws detailing the regulation of foreign aid inflows to domestically operating ngos in 153 low and middle income countries for the period 1993 2012 using an event history approach we find that foreign aid flows are associated with an increased risk of restrictive law adoption a log unit increase in foreign aid raises the probability of adoption by 6 7 this risk is exacerbated after the holding of competitive elections the interaction of foreign aid and competitive elections increases the probability of adoption by 11

the relationship between forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty evidence from a survey data arch model this paper examines empirically the relationship between measures of forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty from data on inflation expectations from the livingston survey series and the survey research center src survey series because the survey series do not provide probabilistic forecasts of inflation we derive measures of inflation uncertainty by modelling the conditional variance of the inflation forecast errors from the survey series as an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic arch process the analysis is complicated by the fact that the overlap of forecast horizons for the survey series does not preclude the model s disturbance terms from displaying autocorrelation and also places a restriction on the specification for the arch measures of inflation uncertainty we estimate the model using hansen s 1982 generalized method of moments gmm procedure to account for the presence of serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity in the disturbance terms the results generally support the hypothesis that the measures of forecast dispersion across survey respondents are positively and statistically significantly associated with the measures of inflation uncertainty however the appropriateness of using forecast dispersion measures as proxies for inflation uncertainty is sensitive to the choice of the survey series

how long is the firm s forecast horizon abstract the focus of this study is to determine which forecast horizon is most consistent with the observed behaviour of firms in the u s manufacturing sector after conditioning on both the data and the regularity conditions required by the model the article provides posterior probabilities associated with each forecast horizon it finds that the decision rules associated with forecast horizons of three or four years are most consistent with observed firm behaviour on the other hand the static expectations case appears to be most consistent with evaluations made in financial markets

incumbent behavior vote seeking tax setting and yardstick competition this paper develops a model of the political economy of tax setting in a multijurisdictional world where voters choices and incumbent behavior are determined simultaneously voters are assumed to make comparisons between jurisdictions to overcome political agency problems this forces incumbents into a yardstick competition in which they care about what other incumbents are doing we provide a theoretical framework and empirical evidence using u s state data from 1960 to 1988 the results are encouraging to the view that vote seeking and tax setting are tied together through the nexus of yardstick competition

democracy and the washington consensus abstract this paper argues that there is a substantial body of economic advice roughly summarized in the washington consensus that deserves to be endorsed across the political spectrum such endorsement would still leave a series of major economic issues most notably the tradeoff between efficiency and equity to be determined by the outcome of the political process it is argued that the left interpreted as those who give relatively more weight to equity will advance its cause by embracing the mainstream economics summarized by the consensus

exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks this paper evaluates the causes and consequences of episodes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets using data from 1959 through 1993 for twenty oecd countries we consider the antecedents and aftermath of devaluations and revaluations flotations fixings and speculative attacks which may not be successful we find that realignments of fixed exchange rates are alike devaluations are preceded by political instability budget and current account deficits and fast growth of money and prices revaluations are mirror images of devaluations speculative attacks resemble devaluations but money growth and inflation are more endemic and there is no last minute attempt to tighten monetary policy in contrast few consistent correlations link regime transitions like flotations or fixings to macroeconomic or political variables transitions between exchange rate regimes are largely idiosyncratic and are neither consistently provoked ex ante by systematic imbalances nor typically justified ex post by subsequent changes in policy we conclude that there are no clear early warning signals of many speculative attacks and no easy solutions for policy makers barry eichengreen andrew k rose and charles wyplosz

exchange controls capital controls and international financial markets this paper examines the effects of restrictions on international financial m arkets in a general equilibrium rational expectations model of a two country world state contingent financial markets allow households t o allocate wealth optimally across states so that the imposition of e xchange and capital controls has roughly speaking only substitution effects but no wealth effect taxes or quantitative controls on purc hases of foreign currency and on the income from foreign assets reduc e international trade in goods lower ex post welfare in the country in which they are imposed and affect nominal prices and the exchange rate copyright 1988 by american economic association

estimates of the variance of u s inflation based upon the arch model it is generally agreed that the unpredictability of future inflation is a major component of the welfare loss associated with inflation perfectly predicted inflation might induce some costs through institutional rigidities governmental interference and transaction costs but in the long run these should be rather minimal as these institutions adopt various forms of indexing when inflation is unpredictable risk averse economic agents will incur a loss even if prices and quantities are perfectly flexible in all markets inflation is a measure of the relative price of goods today and goods tomorrow thus uncertainty in tomorrow s price impairs the efficiency of today s allocation decisions friedman in his nobel lecture 8 argues convincingly that higher variability of inflation would lead to decreased output ceteris paribus he then conjectures that higher rates of inflation are generally associated with higher variability of inflation and presumably greater uncertainty about future rates if this is true then higher rates of inflation would also be associated with low levels of output which implies a positively sloped phillips curve this paper uses a new statistical technique arch to estimate the conditional mean and variance of inflation from u s time series data the main finding is that the variance of inflation in the seventies was only slightly greater than in the sixties

generalized instrumental variables estimation of autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models abstract this paper considers an alternative to maximum likelihood ml estimation of the autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic arch model introduced in engle 1982 specifically the analysis demonstrates that hansen s 1982 generalized method of moments gmm procedure can be applied for estimation of arch models as an illustration we compare the results from ml estimation and gmm estimation of engle and kraft s 1983 arch model of u s inflation

the origins of financial openness a study of current and capital account liberalization theory we assess the determinants of the national regulation of international finance or the comparative degree of national financial openness or closure hypotheses partisanship interacts with a nation s factor endowments to account in part for different international financial policies by governments of the same partisan hue methods we offer a quantitative measure of international financial openness or current and capital account regulation for 21 member countries of the organization for economic cooperation and development for 1950 88 we use regression analysis employing panel corrected standard errors to discover the determinants of financial openness results our main finding is that political partisanship substantially explains openness but does so in complex ways differences in both political institutional arrangements and types of political economy also account for part of the differences in international financial regulation

capital account liberalization as a signal the authors present a model in which a government s current capital control policy signals future policies controls on capital outflows evolve in response to news on technology conditional on government attitudes toward taxation of capital when there is uncertainty over governmental types a policy of liberal capital outflows sends a favorable signal that may trigger a capital inflow this prediction is consistent with the experience of several countries that have liberalized their capital accounts copyright 1997 by american economic association

privatization financial development property rights and growth abstract this study analyzes how prevailing institutional arrangements i e property rights contracting rights political institutions and corporate governance practices affect privatized firms performance capital markets development and economic growth most of the studies surveyed show that privatization enhances privatized firms performance efficiency and profitability which percolates to economic growth privatized firms performed better in countries with better regulatory and legal frameworks partial privatization may be beneficial in countries with weak institutions namely the french civil law countries the stronger the economic and the governing institutions the easier it is for privatized firms to thrive and contribute to economic growth overall privatization allows firms to achieve improved efficiency while driving the development of the financial sector

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed

invested interests the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance capital moves more rapidly across national borders now than it has in at least fifty years and perhaps in history this article examines the effects of capital mobility on different groups in national societies and on the politics of economic policymaking it begins by emphasizing that while financial markets are highly integrated within the developed world many investments are still quite specific with respect to firm sector or location it then argues that contemporary levels of international capital mobility have a differential impact on socioeconomic groups over the long run increased capital mobility tends to favor owners of capital over other groups in the shorter run owners and workers in specific sectors in capital exporting countries bear much of the burden of adjusting to increased capital mobility these patterns can be expected to lead to political divisions about whether or not to encourage or increase international capital market integration the article then demonstrates that capital mobility also affects the politics of other economic policies most centrally it shifts debate toward the exchange rate as an intermediate or ultimate policy instrument in this context it tends to pit groups that favor exchange rate stability against groups that are more concerned about national monetary policy autonomy and therefore less concerned about exchange rate stability similarly it tends to drive a wedge between groups that favor an appreciated exchange rate and groups that favor a depreciated one these divisions have important implications for such economic policies as european monetary and currency union the dollar yen exchange rate and international macroeconomic policy coordination

do wto members have more liberal trade policy abstract this paper uses 68 measures of trade policy and liberalization to ask if membership in the world trade organization wto and its predecessor the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt is associated with more liberal trade policy almost no measures of trade policy are significantly correlated with gatt wto membership trade liberalizations when they occur usually lag gatt entry by many years and the gatt wto often admits countries that are closed and remain closed for years the exception to the rule is that wto members tend to have slightly more freedom as judged by the heritage foundation s index