longevity risk subjective survival expectations and individual saving behavior abstract we provide evidence of individuals awareness of longevity risk the uncertainty about future survival probabilities based on subjective survival expectations elicited in the survey of health ageing and retirement in europe share and matching data on longevity risk from the human mortality database we find a positive relationship between the forecast dispersion in subjective survival estimates and longevity risk which indicates that individuals are to some extent aware of longevity risk our analysis of savings behavior shows that the dispersion in survival estimates is primarily explained by individuals disagreeing on the survival probability and not by their true awareness of the underlying uncertainty individuals do not save more on average when faced with longevity risk although theory suggests they should

the purchasing power of money and nominal interest rates a re examination while it has been known for some time that under uncertainty the original version of the fisher hypothesis is not precisely correct empirical researchers have largely ignored this fact such an omission has possibly resulted in erroneous conclusions concerning other hypotheses most notably the impact of prices on the real economy this paper clarifies some of the previous interpretations of the existing empirical literature and provides a theoretical version of the relation between prices and interest rates empirical tests based on both the livingston survey data and data from time series forecasting models provide support for the fisher effect and the hypothesis that only covariance risk is priced in the treasury bill market one of the basic hypotheses concerning rationality in financial markets is based on statements generally attributed to fisher 18 fisher argued that the nominal or money rate of return on an asset should compensate an investor for his or her required real rate of return and changes in the purchasing power of money for the uncertainty case fisher replaced known purchasing power changes with the expected inflation rate whereas the fisher relationship under certainty is well defined his basic theorem under uncertainty is not precise as fama 15 has argued it is changes in the purchasing power of money not the inflation rate that should concern investors under uncertainty the expected value of one is not by jensen s inequality the inverse of the expected value of the other moreover fama and farber 16 grauer and litzenberger 20 and benninga and protopapadakis 3 have shown that when investors are risk averse the fisher relationship will generally not hold even after adjustment has been made for the distinction between purchasing power changes and the inflation rate in particular these authors show that an adjustment must be made for the fact that the real rate of return on nominal bonds is random while these issues have been discussed in the theoretical literature they have largely been ignored in the empirical work on this topic given the fact that nominal rates do not seem to adjust as rapidly to price changes as fisher hypothesized numerous empirical researchers have expanded the basic fisher model in an attempt to explain this empirical anomaly these extensions include the incorporation of a inflation rate variability and the growth in real output

competitor see competitor do incumbent entry in new market niches the ability to keep up with changing technology is critical for a company s long term survival however companies have to balance the risk of rushing into new areas and potentially cannibalizing their existing business against the risk of missing the emerging market this paper investigates when incumbents enter into new market niches created by technological innovation we argue that market conditions and company specific characteristics do not suffice to explain incumbents entry timing but that entry is a contagious process our results demonstrate that incumbents are more likely to respond to innovations in their industry when their counterparts do so in particular we show that incumbents are affected by the entry of firms that are similar in size and resources when a highly similar company enters the new market it raises the probability that the company enters itself beyond levels based solely on the attractiveness of the market

supply chain integration and national collectivism abstract integration at an intra organizational and supply chain sc level has been well studied to determine its benefits and drawbacks the foundation of these studies is their assumption that managers choose integration based on economic considerations following the behavioral theory of the firm btf strategic decisions are not always based on economics but are subject to the usual phenomena associated with aspirational levels in this respect the potential influence and consequences of national culture building aspiration levels on the integration choice of decisionmakers remain unrecognized this study researches the relationship between national collectivism values and the observed internal and external sc integration sci of companies we postulate that national collectivism values generate an aspirational need that moves integration as a potential choice to satisfy this need more into decisionmakers focus we explore the influence of two dimensions of a national culture of collectivism values in group and institutional on decisionmakers choice of higher or lower degrees of plant level integration in addition we explore the operational performance efficacy of firms integration practices we combine data from two multi country datasets using mixed effect models to analyze data from seven countries the results indicate national collectivism values are positively related with plant level use of internal but not of external sci furthermore sci is positively related to operational performance the study supports and extends btf it supports the assumption of behavioral forces in modern firms decision making and adds national culture as an external force to the theory

can futures market data be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates this paper examines whether futures market data can be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates several ways of examining the data indicate that futures market data are not particularly informative about real interest rates not only does this evidence cast some doubt on results in previous research that make use of futures market data to draw inferences about real interest rates but it also indicates that future research on real interest rates may need to turn to a different line of attack understanding the behavior of real interest rates is a central issue in financial economics in previous research on this topic several approaches have been used to measure real interest rates in one approach real interest rates have been calculated by subtracting survey data on inflation expectations such as the livingston data from nominal interest rates the problem with survey based measures of real interest rates is that they are only as good as the survey measure of inflation expectations and there may be little incentive for the survey respondents to answer accurately an even more telling criticism of survey based measures often ignored in the literature is that the behavior of market expectations in driven by economic agents ai the margin who are eliminating unexploited profit opportunities market expectations are unlikely therefore to be well measured by the average expectations of survey respondents 2 because of doubts about survey based measures of real interest rates other

interest rates and the fisher effect in india an empirical study abstract this study throws light on the importance of adjustment lags variability of inflation changes in real income etc in the empirical estimation of fisher hypothesis variability of inflation has a significant negative impact on both short and long term interest rates in a developing economy like india the philips curve effect has not been operative in a developing country

young and no money never mind the material impact of social resources on new venture growth although growth is a desirable outcome for new ventures due to the many advantages of large size most new firms fail to grow largely because of their limited resources and adaptability this paper addresses the question of how new ventures grow despite their limited financial resources i explore the effect of two specific nonfinancial social resources legitimacy and status on new venture growth i propose that new firms can acquire legitimacy by mimicking the structures and ceremonial activities of established firms in their industry and can acquire status by affiliating with high status entities using a unique panel data set on a cohort of advertising agencies founded in new york and chicago between 1977 and 1985 i show that legitimacy and status have favorable impacts on new firms growth in revenues and number of employees the paper makes important contributions to social embeddedness and institutional research by examining the strategic implications of firm level social resources and to the literature on entrepreneurship in general and new venture growth in particular

divestment response to host country terrorist attacks inter firm influence and the role of temporal consistency abstract host country terrorism poses extreme uncertainty to mnes foreign operations however little is known about how mnes respond to host country terrorist attacks and how they make the related decisions drawing on the research on mnes responses to exogenous shocks and the inter firm imitation literature we argue that mnes obtain relevant information from peers actions under terrorist attacks to inform their own responses thus mnes are more likely to divest under host country terrorist attacks when peers also divest furthermore the impact of peers divestments on focal mnes divestments is magnified by the temporal consistency in peers behavioral pattern under terrorist attacks as temporal consistency reduces inferential difficulties empirical evidence based on 93 fortune us companies and their 8698 foreign subsidiaries over 2005 2015 support our hypotheses our study extends the literature on mnes responses to host country exogenous shocks and on inter firm imitation by demonstrating the social amplification of terrorism threat and the role of temporal consistency in inter firm imitation under extreme uncertainty practically we stress that mne executives should always consider their firms idiosyncratic situations when modeling peer mnes actions and be mindful that they are especially likely to imitate peers temporally consistent behaviors under extreme uncertainty

effects of local legitimacy on certification decisions to global and national csr standards by multinational subsidiaries and domestic firms we explore the impact of local legitimacy on the imitation of certification by subsidiaries of foreign multinational enterprises and domestic firms we propose that mne multinational enterprise subsidiaries and domestic firms differ in their propensity to imitate geographically proximate firms when deciding whether to adopt national vs global csr corporate social responsibility certifications for two reasons first there are differences in the legitimacy they can expect to gain in different communities from adopting these certifications second there are differences in their knowledge about the local legitimacy of these certifications we test our hypotheses by studying the decisions of automotive suppliers in mexico to certify either to iso 14001 a global certification or to clean industry a national certification we find that geography matters mne subsidiaries imitate national certifications by geographically proximate firms to overcome a liability of foreignness while domestic firms imitate global certifications by proximate firms to overcome the disadvantages of localness we explore the implications of our findings for institutional theory and future research

the logit equilibrium a perspective on intuitive behavioural anomalies costs associated with deviations from the nash equilibrium these payoff asymmetry effects are incorporated in an approach that introduces noisy behavior via a logit probabilistic choice function in the resulting logit equilibrium behavior is characterized by a probability distribution that satisfies a rational expectations consistency condition the beliefs that determine players expected payoffs match the decision distributions that arise from applying the logit rule to those expected payoffs we prove existence of a unique symmetric logit equilibrium and derive comparative statics results the paper provides a unified perspective on many recent laboratory studies of games in which nash equilibrium predictions are inconsistent with both intuition and experimental evidence

managerial cognition and the mimetic adoption of market positions what you see is what you do managers planning to abandon a market position need to find a promising alternative and face a choice of inventing a new market position or entering an existing one the great uncertainty on the consequences of different actions leads them to rely on other organizations for information on how to compete making adoption of existing market positions likely their wish to avoid direct rivalry and maximize growth leads them to seek out information on new market positions with few incumbents as a result recently innovated market positions are mimetically adopted by organizations that can easily observe previous adoptions and see them as relevant to their market situations increasing the market differentiation this theory is tested and supported by analysis of the spread of new radio formats in the united states 1998 john wiley sons ltd

refraining from imitation professional resistance and limited diffusion in a financial market why do some practices not spread although this is an important question for both diffusion theorists and those interested in institutional change we know surprisingly little about the limitations on diffusion because most diffusion studies sample on successful diffusion i address the question of why some practices fail to spread by introducing the concept of a deviance discount a deviance discount is a systematic downgrading of the observed adoption performance of controversial practices which limits the contagion of such practices i test and find qualitative and quantitative support for my thesis in the product introduction behavior of swedish mutual fund firms my findings hold implications for diffusion theory and theories of endogenous institutional change

inflation and unemployment the world economy today is vastly different from the 1930s when seymour harris the chairman of this meeting infected me with his boundless enthusiasm for economics and his steadfast confidence in its capacity for good works economics is very different too both the science and its subject have changed and for the better since world war ii but there are some notable constants unemployment and inflation still preoccupy and perplex economists statesmen journalists housewives and everyone else the connection between them is the principal domestic economic burden of presidents and prime ministers and the major area of controversy and ignorance in macroeconomics i have chosen to review economic thought on this topic on this occasion partly because of its inevitable timeliness partly because of a personal interest reaching back to my first published work in 1941

on the constancy of real interest rates and the mundell effect in reply to fama s 1975 tests on market efficiency and the constancy of the ex ante real rate nelson and schwert 1977 have demonstrated that the tests were not sufficiently powerful we have shown that all the structural parameters of their model are identifiable as such the random forecasting errors do not confound the problem of identifying variations in the real rate we estimated the mundell effect and demonstrated that in terms of in sample predictive efficiency the simple fisherian framework to generate real rates fairs quite well once rationality is imposed

policy as myth and ceremony the global spread of stock exchanges 1980 2005 we examine the antecedents and consequences in developing countries of creating a national stock exchange a core technology of financial globalization we study local conditions and global institutional pressures in the rapid spread of exchanges since the 1980s and examine how conditions at the point of adoption affected exchanges subsequent vibrancy little prior research connects the process of diffusion with the operational performance of adopted policies we find that international coercion was associated with more ceremonial adoption but that contrary to expectations common in institutional research contagion processes via peer groups and normative emulation of prestigious actors enhanced vibrancy economic globalization provides a generative context in which to consider the policy implications of organizational theory and research globalization creates both opportunities and challenges for countries on the periphery of the world economy the central question for policy makers is what structures and institutions they should adopt to promote economic and social vibrancy notably waves of alternative theories and associated packages of reforms have swept over the globe in recent decades observing this process of global diffusion and often abandonment of policies and practices meyer boli thomas and raminrez 1997 extended analyses of myth and ceremony at the organization level to the nation state in their world society approach a core idea in this work is that coercion and mimicry of peers or competitors typically based in a substrate of network ties often

international new ventures revisiting the influences behind the born global firm there is a small but theoretically important literature on born globals or international new venture firms that positions itself in contrast to the more established sequential international entry literature in this paper we examine the pattern of entry into international markets for a set of international new ventures and show that they need not be a distinct breed of firms as previous research has portrayed absent a specific technological advantage the decision for a new venture to internationalize at inception is influenced by the size of its home market and by its production capacity as well as by cultural and economic forces that also influence other more traditional firms that stage their entry into international markets most importantly we demonstrate that the decision to internationalize or not should be considered jointly with the capacity allocation decision to specific international markets as analysing these separately may lead to biased results

positive and negative feedback effects in competition for dominance of network business systems this paper extends the existing research on the interplay of positive and negative feedback dynamics in the competition for business system dominance by building on an analysis of the digital television launch in the united kingdom we find that the expectation of network externalities intensifies competition causing strong negative feedback effects to emerge actions aimed at improving one s position are systematically imitated and pre emptied pressure builds up in the business system and only when the weakest firms exit the positive feedback effects are unleashed in their full magnitude our findings contribute to an improved understanding of institutional dynamics in new technology introduction

fisher phillips friedman and the measured impact of inflation on interest a reply the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that empirical findings which persistently appear to contradict the fisher hypothesis that the nominal rate of interest should rise by the full amount of an increase in anticipated inflation are due basically to a failure to control for changes in the real rate of interest that are associated with changes in anticipated inflation we are guided in our search for proper specification of a fisher equation by a simple general equilibrium model which is employed to derive the impact of a change in anticipated inflation upon nominal interest given the requirement that commodity money and labor markets remain in equilibrium in effect we depart from the empirical tradition which has grown up around testing of the fisher hypothesis that takes the real interest rate to be independent of anticipated inflation and argues that for anticipated inflation properly measured the data ought to support the fisher hypothesis 1

mimetic and experiential effects in international marketing alliance formations of us pharmaceuticals firms an event history analysis alliances are recognized as an indispensable tool for managers operating in a global business environment and as a fundamental stage of the internationalization process of the firm drawing on a co evolutionary framework this article investigates the mimetic and experiential effects in international alliance formation we focus on a critical unresolved issue in the literature what is the role of mimetic behavior and previous alliance experience in mitigating the uncertainty associated with engaging in cross border operations an event history analysis of 792 international marketing alliance formations initiated by 317 firms in the us pharmaceutical industry is employed to test the hypotheses the findings of two different hazard rate models reveal significant complex effects of density and cross border alliance experience on the propensity to engage in new international marketing alliances

charting the territory recombination as a source of uncertainty for potential entrants in this paper we conceptualize categories as regions of a cognitive map that structure the market and guide the investment decisions of potential entrants i e of new and established organizations we advance that as a category appears altered via incumbents acts of recombination potential entrants face market specific uncertainty and are discouraged to invest in that category these negative effects of recombination on market entries are however mitigated at increasing values of category status we test our arguments in the market for electronic music the analyses of product and organizational entries in music styles between 1978 and 2011 lend support to our arguments

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation comment in this note i raise two questions regarding fama s results the first is whether similar tests based on an information set somewhat broader than the past history of consumer price inflation will support fama s findings the second is whether given fama s data and model his results fully support his hypotheses the answer to both questions is no if one accepts the accuracy of the data during fama s sample period the current monthly rate of change of consumer prices ct is significantly related to the three previous monthly rates of change of

the structure of competition how competition between one s rivals influences imitative market entry this paper investigates how the pattern of encounters between a firm s competitors affects the firm s inclination to follow its competitors into a new market we theorize that direct encounters between a firm s rivals lead to a herding effect making imitative market entry more likely past mutual forbearance between a firm s competitors resulting from asymmetric multimarket competition further strengthens this herding effect by enhancing the firm s expectations of market attractiveness in contrast aggressive past rivalry between the competitors resulting from symmetric multimarket contact dampens these expectations producing a competition effect that makes herding less probable we test our idea in two distinct contexts the chinese pharmaceutical industry and the taiwanese computer hardware industry and find consistent support in both settings we discuss how our analysis of what we call the structure of competition can be extended to research on other forms of firm behavior

running for the exit community cohesion and bank panics bank panics attract scholarly interest because they reflect distrust of each bank that experiences a run as a result of diffusion of information rumors about such bank runs trigger additional runs elsewhere however the contagion of bank runs is highly selective for reasons that are unrelated to the financial strength of the individual banks this presents a puzzle that extant theories on institutions and reputations cannot fully explain to solve this puzzle we turn to the characteristics of the community in which the banks operate we develop theory on how communities with diverse affiliation structures and economic inequality have weaker community cohesion and communication making such communities less likely to experience widespread distrust and hence bank runs we test hypotheses on the effects of community ethnic diversity national origin diversity religious diversity and wealth inequality using data from the great bank panic of 1893 and we find strong community effects on bank runs these f

government borrowing and tax adjusted real and nominal interest rates the purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of federal government budget deficits on one year tax adjusted nominal and real interest rates in an is lm as model the results suggest that the specification of the dependent variable is a crucial issue in the debate over the linkage between deficits and interest rates the evidence shows a positive and significant effect of various measures of the federal government deficit and debt on the real tax adjusted treasury bill rate in both the levels and the first differenced equations but not on the nominal tax adjusted rate the positive and significant deficit debt coefficients are also confirmed when the first differenced equation is estimated by instrumental variables and when the equation is estimated over various time periods thus there is robust evidence of a positive linkage between federal government borrowing and the tax adjusted real but not nominal interest rates

confidence in imitation niche width strategy in the uk automobile industry our study examines the imitation behavior of uk automobile manufacturers from 1894 to 1981 and supports previous studies on interorganizational imitation by showing that manufacturers tend to imitate other manufacturers that are similar we also find that the degree of confidence manufacturers have in their imitating behavior affects the intensity of that behavior where an organizations confidence is determined by the variance of the routines used by its reference group and the number of firms in the reference group our results show that 1 manufacturers whose reference groups showed large variance in niche width changes during the previous year are less likely to imitate the mean of those changes 2 manufacturers who have large reference groups are more likely to imitate the changes and 3 the negative effect of variance on the imitating behavior is strengthened as the number of reference organizations increases

estimates of the variance of u s inflation based upon the arch model it is generally agreed that the unpredictability of future inflation is a major component of the welfare loss associated with inflation perfectly predicted inflation might induce some costs through institutional rigidities governmental interference and transaction costs but in the long run these should be rather minimal as these institutions adopt various forms of indexing when inflation is unpredictable risk averse economic agents will incur a loss even if prices and quantities are perfectly flexible in all markets inflation is a measure of the relative price of goods today and goods tomorrow thus uncertainty in tomorrow s price impairs the efficiency of today s allocation decisions friedman in his nobel lecture 8 argues convincingly that higher variability of inflation would lead to decreased output ceteris paribus he then conjectures that higher rates of inflation are generally associated with higher variability of inflation and presumably greater uncertainty about future rates if this is true then higher rates of inflation would also be associated with low levels of output which implies a positively sloped phillips curve this paper uses a new statistical technique arch to estimate the conditional mean and variance of inflation from u s time series data the main finding is that the variance of inflation in the seventies was only slightly greater than in the sixties

decomposing uncertainty and its effects on imitation in firm exit decisions this study examines the effects of different uncertainty types on interorganizational imitation in firm exit decisions we draw on herding models to conceptualize exit decisions as being based on a firm s private information which the firm updates with information inferred from observing the actions of others we posit that different types of uncertainty differentially affect this observational learning process in particular we propose that certain uncertainty types attenuate rather than foster observational learning and subsequent imitation we test this theory using a 29 year panel data set on the exit of private venture capital firms our results indicate that observational learning does influence imitation in firm exit decisions and they also suggest that a common belief that uncertainty enhances imitation does not apply to all types of uncertainty specifically we find that uncertainty fosters imitation only when it is idiosyncratic to the firm uncertainties that are common to all firms in contrast actually reduce reliance on observational learning by decomposing uncertainty into different types and explicating their effects on imitation we demonstrate that this relationship is more nuanced than previously assumed and in addition highlight the role of deliberate information processing in imitation

firm and country level trade offs and contingencies in the evaluation of foreign investment the semiconductor industry 1994 2002 this paper examines the joint impact of firm and country level factors on the international plant location decisions of semiconductor firms from 1994 2002 we find that these factors interact to influence the location decisions of firms investing abroad in a given host country firms with more advanced technological capabilities are more likely to make investments in countries with greater technological sophistication but not in politically hazardous countries where they face greater expropriation hazards firms with less advanced technology are more willing to accept a trade off between country level political hazards and technological sophistication firms also trade off own versus other firm experience as sources of critical knowledge regarding the foreign investment environment

anticipated money inflation uncertainity and real economic activity this paper critically examines a number of maintained hypotheses that are necessarily being tested along with the basic notion derived from the rational expectations re formulation of lucas 1972 19 73 that only unanticipated money matters the trend stationary representation of secular real output of lucas and others is replaced by a difference stationary representation found by nelson and plosser 1980 to be consistent with u s historical data the impact of inflation uncertainty on real activity is considered attention is paid to possible mis measurement of agents ex ante anticipated money growth it is found that three alternative measures of anticipated money growth produce a stable impact on growth of output and employment contemporaneous and lagged values of unanticipated money growth have no significant additional explanatory power in the presence of any one of the three measures of anticipated money growth beyond this it is impossible to reject the hypothesis that the initial positive real impact of anticipated money is not temporary inflation uncertainty is found to act as a significant depressant of real economic activity in the presence of all tested combinations of anticipated and unanticipated money growth this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection