the pareto domination of irrational expectations over rational expectations abstract a simple overlapping generations economy with one consumer in every generation and with one consumption good in every period is considered it is shown that a sequence of temporary equilibria generated by an irrational inelastic expectation function always generates an allocation which pareto dominates the corresponding allocation generated by the rational expectation function furthermore it is shown that in spite of systematic prediction errors such an allocation is also efficient

housing prices and the savings of renters abstract this paper studies the effects of housing prices on the net worth of young households because prospective homeowners must accumulate down payments a change in housing prices can change their savings patterns theoretically the effect of increases in house prices on savings is ambiguous because households can increase their saving to afford the larger down payment or decrease their saving because they have chosen to delay or forego purchasing a house using data from the 1984 panel study of income dynamics 27 i show that empirically the effect of increased housing prices on saving is positive and quite large relative to the savings of young households young renter households living in cities with high housing prices have more net worth than those living in cities with lowering housing prices controlling for both the income of the households as well as the per capita income of the city in which they live

rationing and optimality in overlapping generations models the theory of overlapping generations models provides examples of economies where the first welfare theorem of static finite economies fails to hold since the discovery of this result several authors have examined the relationship between competitive equilibria and pareto optimal allocations although they have systematically ignored alternatives to the competitive mechanism as the only allocation rule to our knowledge the question of whether a different allocation mechanism may perform better than the competitive one has not been posed one alternative to the competitive allocation rule is provided by the theory of equilibria with rationing which has been developed extensively for static finite economies such models have been under constant criticism because they provide no or very little explanation as to why prices are fixed at non walrasian levels although binding quantity constraints imply a clear signal as to how prices should adjust therefore if the model of quantity rationing can be placed in a full dynamic framework where prices adjust from one period to the next the criticism of assumed and unexplained price rigidity could be overcome by adopting the approach of the law of supply and demand i e demand rationing implies price increases and supply rationing implies price decreases a well defined class of price adjustment rules may be obtained which provides a first step toward a theory of price dynamics under nonmarket clearing conditions optimality properties of rationing equilibria in static finite economies have been studied by several authors balasko 1979 1982 bohm and muller 1977 and dreze and muller 1982 examined the question of different rationing equilibria for the same set of prices whereas bohm 1984

the future of macroeconomics macro theory and models at the bank of england abstract the adoption as policy models by central banks of representative agent new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models has been widely criticised including for their simplistic micro foundations at the bank of england the previous generation of policy models is seen in its 1999 medium term macro model mtmm instead of improving that model to correct its considerable flaws many shared by other non dsge policy models such as the federal reserve s frb us it was replaced in 2004 by the dsge based beqm though this clearly failed during and after the global financial crisis it was replaced in 2011 by the dsge compass complemented by a suite of models we provide a general critique of dsge models for explaining forecasting and policy analyses at central banks and suggest new directions for improving current empirical macroeconomic models based on empirical modelling broadly consistent with better theory rather than seeking to impose simplistic and unrealistic theory

the impact of house prices on consumption in the uk a new perspective this paper proposes an alternative approach to the question of how house prices influence household consumption by focusing on their impact on mortgage equity withdrawal and household saving household level data are used to derive a measure of expected and unexpected changes in house prices these are then incorporated into a recursive bivariate probit model of the decision to withdraw housing equity and save the results suggest that households respond to changes in their housing wealth primarily by increasing their mortgage borrowing rather than by decreasing their savings although this is mainly for younger households however while changes in housing wealth do not have a direct impact on household saving they do have an important indirect impact since they increase the likelihood that the household will withdraw equity which in turn has a negative impact on household saving

effects of a holiday trip on health and quality of life evidence from a natural experiment in south korea abstractwe examine whether having a holiday trip affects an individual s well being namely quality of life health status stress level and health behaviours we use the two stage estimation method to control for endogeneity of a travel experience exploiting a natural experiment of distributing travel vouchers at random among qualified applicants in south korea in 2012 we find that for applicants whose decision to travel is influenced by receiving a voucher a travel experience has no significant effects on the traveller s well being measured 3 12 months later we also find that the ols estimates overstate benefits of a travel

saving incentives for low and middle income families evidence from a field experiment with h r block this paper analyzes the effects of a large randomized field experiment carried out with h r block offering matching incentives for ira contributions at the time of tax preparation about 15 000 h r block clients in 60 offices in predominantly low and middle income neighborhoods in st louis were randomly offered a 20 percent match on ira contributions a 50 percent match or no match the control group brookings institute

do first time house buyers receive financial transfers from their parents using danish longitudinal data with information about wealth for a sample of first time house buyers and their parents we test whether there are direct financial transfers from parents to children in connection with the house purchase or in connection with unemployment spells occurring just after the purchase when children typically hold few liquid assets first we document that child and parent financial resources are correlated then we introduce conditioning variables and exploit the panel aspect of the data to also condition on fixed unobserved factors which arguably govern preferences and or productivity we find no evidence of direct financial transfers

equilibria and efficiency in the fixprice setting abstract the aim of this paper is to study efficiency under fixed price constraints and to define an equilibrium concept that extends to some degree the standard welfare analysis of general equilibrium theory this paper contains a description of the fixprice setting a study of the set of relatively pareto efficient allocations a definition of coupon equilibria the proof of their existence and an investigation into the structure of the set of coupon equilibria and of the set of economies admitting efficient coupon equilibria

analysis of productivity efficiency and technological changes in hospital services in ontario how does case mix matter abstract in this paper we compare productivity efficiency and technological changes with and without case mix as output categories using panel data on ontario hospitals for the period 2002 2006 we use the malmquist productivity index mpi data envelopment analysis dea and non parametric density estimation and related statistical tests we also decompose mpi into efficiency change ech and technological change tch we found that productivity efficiency and technological changes were significantly different between two alternative models with case mix as a weighting device model 2 and without case mix model 1 on the other hand adding case mix as a separate output model 3 did not have any significant impact on the distribution of efficiency estimates compared to the model without case mix we also found that in model 2 productivity growth was driven mainly by improvements in technology rather than increases in efficiency while in model 1 and model 3 the two effects ech and tch almost balanced each other leading to no productivity change

some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis in management contexts mathematical programming is usually used to evaluate a collection of possible alternative courses of action en route to selecting one which is best in this capacity mathematical programming serves as a planning aid to management data envelopment analysis reverses this role and employs mathematical programming to obtain ex post facto evaluations of the relative efficiency of management accomplishments however they may have been planned or executed mathematical programming is thereby extended for use as a tool for control and evaluation of past accomplishments as well as a tool to aid in planning future activities the ccr ratio form introduced by charnes cooper and rhodes as part of their data envelopment analysis approach comprehends both technical and scale inefficiencies via the optimal value of the ratio form as obtained directly from the data without requiring a priori specification of weights and or explicit delineation of assumed functional forms of relations between inputs and outputs a separation into technical and scale efficiencies is accomplished by the methods developed in this paper without altering the latter conditions for use of dea directly on observational data technical inefficiencies are identified with failures to achieve best possible output levels and or usage of excessive amounts of inputs methods for identifying and correcting the magnitudes of these inefficiencies as supplied in prior work are illustrated in the present paper a new separate variable is introduced which makes it possible to determine whether operations were conducted in regions of increasing constant or decreasing returns to scale in multiple input and multiple output situations the results are discussed and related not only to classical single output economics but also to more modern versions of economics which are identified with contestable market theories

computing economies of vertical integration economies of scope and economies of scale using partial frontier nonparametric methods abstract so far in the nonparametric literature only full frontier nonparametric methods have been applied to search for economies of scope and scale particularly the data envelopment analysis method dea however these methods present some drawbacks that might lead to biased results this paper proposes a methodology based on more robust partial frontier nonparametric methods to look for scope and scale economies through this methodology it is possible to assess the robustness of these economies and in particular to assess the influence that extreme data or outliers might have on them the influence of the imposition of convexity on the production set of firms was also investigated this methodology was applied to the water utilities that operated in portugal between 2002 and 2008 there is evidence of economies of vertical integration and economies of scale in drinking water supply utilities and in water and wastewater utilities operating mainly in the retail segment economies of scale were found in water and wastewater utilities operating exclusively in the wholesale and in some of these utilities diseconomies of scope were also found the proposed methodology also allowed us to conclude that the existence of some smaller utilities makes the minimum optimal scales go down

the uk consumption boom of the late 1980s aggregate implications of microeconomic evidence two competing explanations of the uk consumer boom in the late 1980s are the financial liberalisation imperfect housing market hypothesis of muellbauer and murphy and the expectations hypothesis of king we use 15 years of family expenditure surveys and cohort analysis to investigate to what extent these two hypotheses agree with observed changes in consumption patterns we find that the housing markets explanation accounts for much of the increase by older cohorts but cannot be reconciled with the marked rise in expenditure levels of younger households a simple simulation exercise shows instead that the expectations hypothesis can generate increases of expenditure by young consumers of the magnitude observed in our data

testing for unit roots in panel data are wages on different bargaining levels cointegrated theoritical considerations suggest that spillover forces equalize wages for similar jobs thus it is expected that firm wages are cointegrated with the corresponding wage rates on an industrial level in this paper we apply various unit root tests to a panel of wage data we show that the familiar techniques can be adopted to this type of data allowing for unobserved heterogeneity and common time effects our results suggest that firm and industry wages both possess a unit root in the autoregressive representation however ther is only weak evidence for a cointegration realtionship

economies of scale and scope in the provision of diagnostic techniques and therapeutic services in portuguese hospitals this article analyses the provision of auxiliary clinical services that are typically carried out within the hospital we estimate a flexible cost function for three of the most important cost wise diagnostic techniques and therapeutic services in portuguese hospitals clinical pathology medical imaging and physical medicine and rehabilitation our objective in carrying out this estimation is the evaluation of economies of scale and scope in the provision of these services for all services we find evidence of economies of scale and some evidence of economies of scope we also find evidence of diminishing returns to management whereby larger hospitals appear to have surpassed their optimal size these results have important policy implications and can be related to the ongoing discussion of where and how should hospitals provide these services

nudges at the dentist abstract we implement a field experiment to study the impact of reminder messages on dental health prevention patients who are due to schedule a check up receive no reminder a neutral reminder postcard or reminders including additional information on the benefits of prevention our results document a strong impact of reminders within one month after receiving a reminder the fraction of patients who make a check up appointment more than doubles the effect declines slightly over time but remains economically and statistically significant including additional information in the reminders does not significantly increase response rates relative to the neutral reminder finally our data indicates that applying reminders repeatedly neither strengthens nor weakens their effects

booms and busts consumption house prices and expectations over much of the past 25 years house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronized three main hypotheses for this have been proposed increases in house prices raise household wealth and so their consumption house price growth reduces credit constraints by increasing the collateral available to homeowners and house prices and consumption are together influenced by common factors using microeconomic data we find that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households contradicting the wealth channel we suggest that common causality has been the most important factor linking house prices and consumption

do house prices affect consumption a re assessment of the wealth hypothesis this paper revives the debate in the literature about the relationship between house prices and consumption by exploring conflicting results in the uk campbell and cocco 2007 find that old owners benefit most from a house price increase and young renters least confirming the so called wealth hypothesis in contrast attanasio et al 2009 find that house prices have the same impact on consumption across age groups we rule out several potential explanations related to data construction and provide evidence that the functional form can reconcile the conflicting results in the two papers

explaining the wealth holdings of different cohorts productivity growth and social security in this paper we explore the reasons why different generations accumulate different amounts of wealth we use basic economic theory to propose two indicators of the economic conditions under which households accumulate wealth the first one represents productivity differences across cohorts the aggregate level of gross national product per capita around the time the head of the household entered the labor market the second measure summarizes the changes in social security during the head of household s working life using panel data from the dutch socio economic panel we show that productivity growth can explain all the cohort effects present in income data while productivity growth and the generosity of social security can explain all the cohort effects present in household net worth we also find a limited offset of social security on wealth holdings

is the uk balance of payments sustainable the uk current account deficit john muellbauer and anthony murphy the uk has a large and persistent current account deficit policy makers argue that the deficit is easily financed temporary and therefore not a sign of structural weakness we examine the conditions in which it is appropriate for a country to overspend its current income with the intention of repaying loans out of future income these include an increase in international capital mobility larger net holdings of foreign assets and expectations of faster productivity growth all three apply to the uk so official reasoning is in part correct even so for several decades there has been a trend deterioration of uk trade performance most markedly in manufacturing and we detect no underlying improvement in the 1980s we highlight structural deficiencies in both demand and supply on the demand side we show the importance of rising house prices and easier consumer credit in fuelling the consumer boom to an unwarranted extent this we trace to unjustifiable subsidies to house ownership on the supply side we stress vastly inadequate investment in skill formation education and physical capital these structural deficiencies lead us to a less optimistic view than official policy we draw the policy lessons for the uk and consider whether continental europe will face similar problems as financial markets are liberalized

can survey participation alter household saving behaviour we document an effect of survey participation on household saving identification comes from random assignment to modules within a population representative internet panel the saving measure is based on linked administrative wealth data households that responded to a detailed questionnaire on needs in retirement reduced their non housing saving rate by 3 5 percentage points on a base of 1 5 the survey may have acted as a salience shock possibly with respect to reduced housing costs in retirement our findings present an important challenge to survey designers they also add to the evidence of limited attention in household financial decision making

decomposing the wealth effect on consumption we decompose the wealth effect on consumption into two components first we distinguish between exogenous and endogenous wealth changes second we distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated exogenous changes we estimate the impact of exogenous components using data from the 2008 2010 panel of the italian survey of household income and wealth the wealth effect is about 3 cents per unexpected euro increase in wealth and driven by house price changes the consumption response to anticipated changes in wealth is of similar magnitude and also driven by housing we show that these findings are consistent with binding borrowing constraints

scale and scope efficiencies through hospital consolidations the hospital sector in the province of ontario has recently completed a large scale restructuring marked by wide ranging hospital closures mergers and program transfers given a generally inconclusive economics literature regulators used an accounting as opposed to an economic approach when predicting gains to consolidations this paper uses an economic cost function to examine economies of scale and scope in the years preceding restructuring where there was little doubt that economies were possible issues relating to output aggregation functional form and scale and scope testing are addressed and an equilibrium cost function is derived from an estimated short run function to measure the cost concepts of interest using index and direct approaches we examine a variety of potential reconfigurations and conclude that there were indeed large scale unexploited gains to strategic consolidation in the hospital sector furthermore these gains may not have been detected using standard approaches in the literature

a measure of price advantage and its decomposition into output and input specific effects abstract in this paper we develop a price advantage measure obtained as the difference between efficiency scores computed with quantity based and value based data this measure is interpreted as an increase in the firm s profit rate due to a favourable input and output price environment compared to traditional allocative efficiency measure which uses only the evaluated firm s prices price advantage measure considers prices of peers in the market our main contribution is to show that total price advantage decomposes into the sum of output and input specific price advantages the application of the measure to a french farm s dataset in the context of the successive common agricultural policy reforms aiming at the liberalization of agricultural prices 1992 2013 illustrates our theoretical model

conclusions regarding cross group differences in happiness depend on difficulty of reaching respondents a growing literature explores differences in subjective well being across demographic groups often relying on surveys with high nonresponse rates by using the reported number of call attempts made to participants in the university of michigan s surveys of consumers we show that comparisons among easy to reach respondents differ from comparisons among hard to reach ones notably easy to reach women are happier than easy to reach men but hard to reach men are happier than hard to reach women and conclusions of a survey could reverse with more attempted calls better alternatives to comparing group sample averages might include putting greater weight on hard to reach respondents or even extrapolating trends in responses

economies of scope in the health sector the case of portuguese hospitals abstract background economies of scope are defined as the potential cost savings arising from the joint production of two or more outputs rather than their separate production given the importance of the health sector for the community measuring the existence of potential economies of scope contributes to the improvement of this sectors sustainability objective s to identify economies of scope in portuguese hospitals using frontier based methods methods this paper develops 1 a generalized algorithm to obtain locally convex frontiers using the directional order ldo frontier method and 2 a generalized economies of scope based ratio that allows the introduction of any inefficiency source data this paper uses the 2002 2009 dataset for portuguese hospitals concerning the provision of obstetrics gynaecology and paediatrics ogp and psychiatric psy services results considerable economies and diseconomies of scope were found in the portuguese public hospitals a considerable dependence on the production line and on the merger status of the hospital was observed diseconomies of scope were more likely for larger hospitals i e those with more than 6000 inpatient discharges and or 7500 medical appointments per year conclusions even merged hospitals can exploit economies of scope however when they become outsized entities such efforts become more difficult

housing and the macroeconomy inflation and the financial accelerator three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed first evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of u s consumer price inflation second key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience finally three potential links between housing credit and the financial accelerator are discussed these are the consumption channel the investment channel and feedback between bad loans and risk spreads via the financial system and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence absence and magnitudes of these linkages

housing wealth and consumption a micro panel study there is strong evidence that house prices and consumption are synchronised there is however disagreement over the causes of this link this study examines if there is a wealth effect of house prices on consumption using a household level panel data set with information about house ownership income wealth and demographics for a large sample of the danish population in the period 1987 96 we model the dependence of the growth rate of total household expenditure with unanticipated innovations to house prices controlling for factors related to competing explanations we find little evidence of a housing wealth effect

intertemporal consumption and credit constraints does total expenditure respond to an exogenous shock to credit there is continuing controversy over the importance of credit constraints this paper investigates whether total household expenditure and debt is affected by an exogenous increase in access to credit provided by a credit market reform that enabled danish house owners to use housing equity as collateral for consumption loans we find that the magnitude of the response is correlated with the amount of equity released by the reform and that the effect is strongest for younger households even for this group the response was moderate the aggregate effect of the reform was significant but small

imputing consumption from income and wealth information we investigate the feasibility of deriving a measure of total expenditure at the household level from administrative micro data on income and wealth we use danish administrative data that provides measures of disposable income and the holding of different assets at the end of the year the ability to link the households in the 1994 6 danish expenditure survey to their administrative data for the years around the survey year offers a unique possibility for constructing a measure of total expenditure and of checking directly on the reliability of the imputation the results are promising

house price shocks negative equity and household consumption in the united kingdom we examine the impact of unanticipated housing capital gains on consumption behavior using data from the british household panel survey and county level house price data we condition the models on household financial expectations and on household real financial capital gains imputed from the family resources survey we find a marginal propensity to consume out of unanticipated shocks to housing wealth of 0 01 omitting the measure of financial expectations biases the results upward we find little evidence of heterogeneity in responses of young and old homeowners but differences between owners and renters we also find asymmetric behavior between house price rises and falls and a disproportionate impact on saving if the household had negative housing equity at the start of the period jel d91 e21 r31 c 2010 by the european economic association

a test based on panel refreshments for panel conditioning in stated utility measures adapting a methodology proposed in das et al 2011 this paper uses panel refreshments as a natural experiment to determine whether trends in stated utility measures observed in panel data are genuine or rather caused by measurement issues