tax structure and corruption cross country evidence one common feature of the current literature on corruption especially the empirical contributions to it is the emphasis on the exogenous determinants of corruption which are generally beyond the direct control of governments to date little is known about how the design of government policy potentially affects the level of corruption in a country even though there is growing recognition that the design and administration of tax and spending policies play important roles in promoting or discouraging corrupt practices using a large sample of countries over the 1995 2009 period this paper fills the gap by conducting the first analysis in the literature to examine the significance of the tax structure as measured by both tax mix and tax complexity in determining corruption our results suggest the following 1 countries relying more heavily on direct taxes tend to exhibit less corruption than countries that rely more heavily on indirect taxes and 2 countries with more complex tax systems tend to be more corrupt than countries with less complex tax systems these results are robust across alternative measures of corruption and tax structure and alternative estimations with and without correcting the potential endogeneity issue of the tax structure variables

corruption and government size a disaggregated analysis using annual state level data over 1983 1987 this paper examines the effect of government size on corruption by public officials by including both demand and supply side incentives for engaging in corrupt practices our objectives are twofold first we assess the relationship between the incidence of corruption and overall measures of the size of the federal government and the state local sector in each state second we explore what kinds of government activities are more likely to be successful in deterring abuse of public office our results are generally supportive of becker s crime and punishment model regarding the primary focus of the paper our results show that government size in particular spending by state governments does indeed have a strong positive influence on corruption

time and punishment an intertemporal model of crime if an increase in the rate at which a criminal commits crimes lowers the expected time until detection the income from crime net of expected fines must be discounted at a rate that varies with the crime rate this paper models the criminal s choice of the optimal crime rate under such conditions it is shown that irrespective of the criminal s attitude toward risk an increase in the probability of detection is more likely to deter crime than a comparable increase in penalties other implications of the model for the optimal enforcement of laws are also explored

rent seeking in u s government budgets 1900 88 a measure of waste from the competitive rent seeking activity of special interest groups in federal state and local budgets was calculated over the period 1900 88 this period in u s fiscal history is characterized by constitutional changes that have made for more transparency in governmental fiscal activities and for greater diffusion of taxes the xvi amendment to the constitution created the progressive individual income tax the corporate income tax was judged to be an excise tax in 1909 and passed the test of constitutionality high marginal tax rates are a justification for a high average level of taxation the full employment act of 1946 insitutionalized government deficits as a means of meeting a political objective as a result opportunities for rent seeking through budgetary reallocations rose in the united states in the first two decades of the 20th century waste at all levels of government represented about 10 percent of incremental national output today waste is three times that amount the transparency and diffusion of taxes are highest at the federal level and least at the local level rent seeking through budgetary reallocation has followed the public purse one explanation for the observed centralization of government in the 20th century may be that opportunities to concentrate benefits and diffuse taxes are highest at the federal level finally the withdrawal of resources from the productive economy to pursue rent seeking in government budgets lowers the rate of real economic growth i find that rent seeking through budget reallocations has had a significant and large negative effect on the growth rate

transfers or public good provision a political allocation perspective abstract employing an extended rent seeking model this paper focuses on the problem faced by an optimizing politician of allocating a given budget among monetary transfers to individuals monetary transfers to groups and public good transfers to groups

a study of the impact of sectoral shifts on aggregate unemployment in canada the recent trend in macro economic literature has been to explain cycles in aggregate output and employment in terms of unexpected nominal shocks only in these models the natural rate of unemployment is constant this paper diverges from this approach and following a recent paper by david lilien 1982 considers the impact of real as well as nominal variables the main findings are 1 a significant part of the fluctuations in the canadian unemployment over the 1957 83 period was caused by real shocks to the economy and 2 most of the transmission of the business cycle from the united states to canada is effected through real variables as well une etude de limpact de deplacements sectoriels sur le niveau de ch6mage agrege au canada dans la litterature macroeconomique recente on a eu tendance a expliquer les cycles dans le niveau de la production et de l emploi a peu pres strictement en termes de chocs nominaux non anticipes dans ces modeles le taux de ch6mage naturel est constant ce memoire prend des distances par rapport a cette approche et suit pluto t la direction suggeree par un memoire recent de david lilien qui considere l impact des variables reelles tout autant que celui des variables nominales les resultats principaux sont 1 une portion significative des fluctuations dans le niveau du chomage canadien entre 1957 et 1983 a et causee par des chocs reels subis par l economie 2 le gros de h1 transmission du cycle economique des etats unis vers le canada se fait par le truchement des variables reelles

an equilibrium queuing model of bribery it is sometimes argued that bribery is inefficient because bureaucrats may cause delays for attracting more bribes this hypothesis is examined in the context of a queue where customers having different values of time are ranked by their bribe payments to the queue s server the nash equilibrium strategies of the customers are derived it is shown that the server is unlikely to slow down the allocation process when bribery is allowed the model does not have stringent informational requirements and the equilibrium outcome minimizes the average value of time costs of the queue it also suggests a useful auctioning procedure

corruption is bad for growth even in the united states we estimate the impact of corruption on growth of output per worker in u s states we improve on existing studies of the cost of corruption by using a better specified empirical model focusing on a study population that is less likely to be affected by parameter heterogeneity and controlling for endogeneity using political variables to instrument for corruption we find that corruption plays a significant and causal role in lowering growth and investment across the states

tax complexity and fiscal illusion by using the hirschman herfindahl index hhc the traditional approach to the tax complexity hypothesis introduces a restriction into the fiscal illusion model which has no theoretical foundation we analyse the existing framework of the tax complexity hypothesis in detail and propose to capture this complexity through a hannah and kay index we extend the theoretical framework by considering the expected return on investment in information

corruption in russia abstractwe analyze the determinants of corruption in russia using law enforcement data on corruption incidents for a panel of 79 russian regions for the period 2004 13 we find that the relative salaries of bureaucrats determine corruption levels corruption declines as relative salaries rise yet at strongly diminishing rates furthermore we show that even very limited media freedom helps to curtail corruption other important determinants are the strength of law enforcement education levels and unemployment rates

an econometric analysis of income tax evasion and its detection this article presents an econometric analysis of income tax evasion and its detection based on individual level data drawn from the internal revenue service 1982 and 1985 taxpayer compliance measurement programs i specify a model consisting of two equations the first measures the extent of evasion the second the fraction of evasion detected the empirical analysis explores the effects of income the marginal tax rate and various socioeconomic characteristics on filer evasion behavior and it assesses the variability in detection rates among irs examiners finally i use the empirical estimates to construct new estimates of the income tax gap the new estimates are very close to the previous irs estimates

sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment a substantial fraction of cyclical unemployment is better characterized as fluctuations of the frictional or natural rate than as deviations from some relatively stable natural rate shifts of employment demand between sectors of the economy necessitate continuous labor reallocation since it takes time for workers to find new jobs some unemployment is unavoidable this paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies unlike those in the sixties were induced by unusual structural shifts within the u s economy simple time series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market these models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructed

the persistence of unemployment how important were regional extended unemployment insurance benefits this paper assesses the contribution of regionally extended unemployment insurance benefits to the persistence of the canadian unemployment rate during the 1980s we use administrative data associated with the operation of the ui program to produce counts of the number of ui claimants by benefit phase the data suggest that the change in the number of unemployed individuals above the level prevailing in 1981 is much larger than the change in the number of regionally extended benefit recipients we also examine the time series properties of the number of ui claimants by benefit phase and find that the number of regionally extended recipients is not unusually persistent indeed this series displays less persistence than the number of claimants in other benefit phases we recognize that the increase in potential benefit duration caused by regionally extended benefits may lengthen the time claimants spend in the initial and labour force extended benefit phases but we conclude that this indirect channel would have to be particularly strong to prevent one from concluding that the number of regionally extended benefit recipients was of relatively little importance in explaining the increased level and persistence of the canadian unemployment rate during the 1980s la persistance du chomage est ce que les prestations d assurance chomage pendant de plus longues periodes dans certaines re gions ai haut taux de ch6mage sont un facteur important ce m6moire 6value l importance de la politique de p6riodes allong6es de prestations d assurance ch6mage pour tenir compte de la conjoncture r6gionale sur la persistance du taux de ch6mage canadien dans les ann6es 80 les auteurs utilisent les donn6es administratives du programme d assurance ch6mage pour d6velopper des mesures du nombre de b6neficiaires selon la phase de prestation il semble que l augmentation du nombre des ch6meurs au dessus du niveau de 1981 est beaucoup plus grande que 1 augmentation dans le nombre des r6cipiendaires des prestations dites regionales les auteurs examinent aussi les propri6tes de la s6rie chronologique des r6cipiendaires de prestations d assurance ch6mage an earlier version of this paper was presented to the 1993 meetings of the canadian economics association we would like to thank pierre fortin craig riddell paul storer and two anonymous referees for useful comments although this work was supported by the business and labour market analysis group of statistics canada and the sshrcc it remains the sole responsibility of the authors canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xxviii no 3 august aout 1995 printed in canada imprim6 au canada 0008 4085 95 555 67 1 50 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 207 46 13 176 on mon 20 jun 2016 05 30 32 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms 556 miles corak and stephen r g jones selon la phase de prestation et constatent que le nombre des recipiendaires de ces prestations r6gionales n est pas persistant en fait cette s6rie chronologique montre moins de persistance que le nombre des ben6ficiaires dans les autres phases on reconnait que l accroissement dans la duree potentielle des prestations attribuable a la politique regionalisee peut accroitre le temps que les beneficiaires passent dans la phase initiale et la phase ult6rieure arrim6e a la conjoncture r6gionale mais les auteurs concluent que cet effet indirect devrait 6tre particulierement fort pour qu on ne soit pas amen6 a conclure que le nombre des b6neficiaires qui reqoivent des prestations pendant une periode plus longue n a eu qu une importance relativement faible dans l explication du niveau plus eleve et de la persistance du taux de chomage canadien dans les annees 80

notes on bribery and the control of corruption abstract existing models of corruption that allow for bribery have ignored an important recursive problem when an auditor or a policeman bargains over a bribe with a person he has arrested he has to take into account the fact that he may in turn be caught for taking this bribe and be involved in a similar bargain but from the other side the purpose of this paper is to provide a simple model for capturing this recursion having done so it goes on to analyse some conditions for the control of corruption these turn out to be different from what conventional wisdom suggests

the effects of the value added tax on revenue and inequality this paper examines the impact of the introduction of the value added tax on inequality and government revenues using newly released macro data we present both conventional country fixed effect re

seeking rents by setting rents the political economy of rent seeking in recent years there has been a large number of papers on the subject of rent seeking most such works on rent seeking have taken the rent as exogenously determined by regulators regulators howeve r may also be expected and indeed have been shown to be rent seeke rs and hence the determination of the rent itself should be endogeniz ed to reflect the fact that the rent setters are themselves rent se ekers in this paper the authors do this by presenting an analysis o f the interaction of regulators firms and consumers within a rent s eeking framework where all three groups are assumed to be self motiva ted the analysis is carried out under alternative assumptions regard ing the nature of the market and the reaction functions of the partic ipants policy implications are drawn where appropriate copyright 1987 by royal economic society

on the economic incentives for taking bribes this paper presents an empirical analysis of the factors affecting bribe taking by public officials factors influencing the acceptance of bribes include the probability of being convicted severity of punishment government salary relative to private sector income the demonstration effect and the unemployment rate our results indicate that higher probability of being convicted discourages the acceptance of bribes as does more severe punishment low relative earnings high unemployment and the demonstration effect of aggregate advertising all lead to increased bribe taking

understanding china s urban pollution dynamics china s ongoing urban economic growth has sharply increased the population s per capita income lowered the count of people living below the poverty line and caused major environmental problems we survey the growing literature investigating the causes and consequences of china s urban pollution challenges we begin by studying how urban population and industrial growth impacts local pollution levels and greenhouse gas production as the urban population grows richer its demand for private transportation and electricity sharply increases such privately beneficial activity exacerbates urban pollution externalities facing these severe environmental challenges china s urbanites increasingly demand quality of life progress we survey the emerging literature investigating the demand for environmental progress in china progress in mitigating externalities hinges on whether the powerful central and local governments choose to address these issues we analyze the political economy of whether government officials have strong incentives to tackle lingering urban externalities we conclude by discussing future research opportunities at the intersection of environmental and urban economics jel o18 p25 p28 q53 r23 r41 r58

corruption inequality and fairness bigger governments raise the possibilities for corruption more corruption may in turn raise the support for redistributive policies that intend to correct the inequality and injustice generated by corruption we formalize these insights in a simple dynamic model a positive feedback from past to current levels of taxation and corruption arises either when wealth originating in corruption and rent seeking is considered unfair or when the ability to engage in corruption is unevenly distributed in the population this feedback introduces persistence in the size of the government and the levels of corruption and inequality multiple steady states exist in some cases

the empirical analysis of fiscal illusion this paper examines the empirical analysis of the five main hypotheses subsumed under the generic term fiscal illusion after placing these hypotheses within a common theoretical framework the paper attempts to evaluate empirical research into the revenue complexity hypothesis the revenue elasticity hypothesis the flypaper effect renter illusion and debt illusion

deriving natural rates of unemployment for sub national regions the case of canadian provinces in order to pursue informed stabilization policies it is vital for policy markers to have estimates of how much of the total unemployment rate can be classified as cyclical rather than natural unemployment this paper describes a method for generating regional natural rate estimates and applies this method to the case of canadian provinces results indicate that unemployment insurance generosity and relative minimum wages play an important role in determining natural unemployment rates in canadian provinces one of the enduring characteristics of the canadian labour market has been substantial and peresistent unemployment rate disparities across provinces the results of this study indicate that these disparities are primarily explained by differences in provincial values of structural variables such as unemployment generosity and by differences in provincial sensitivities to these structural variables a furher result is that variation in cyclical unemployment rates is substantially less in the traditio

does the internet reduce corruption evidence from u s states and across countries the authors test the hypothesis that the internet is a useful technology for controlling corruption in order to do so the authors develop a novel identification strategy for internet diffusion power disruptions damage digital equipment which increases the user cost of information technology it capital and thus lowers the speed of internet diffusion a natural phenomenon causing power disruptions is lightning activity which makes lightning a viable instrument for internet diffusion using ground based lightning detection censors as well as global satellite data the authors construct lightning density data for the contiguous united states u s states and a large cross section of countries empirically lightning density is a strong instrument for internet diffusion and the authors fourth estimates suggest that the emergence of the internet has served to reduce the extent of corruption across u s states and across the world

corruption as a gamble abstract in the following model of corruption a simple game is set up whose players are a government official granting a permit conditional on a test and a candidate requesting the permit the game is solved under different assumptions as to the information sets of the players perfect information asymmetric information and imperfect information on both sides in the latter case after characterizing the solution and presenting some important comparative statics results the paper moves on to show the emergence of multiple equilibria in corruption illustrating the interaction of corruption at different hierarchical levels of an administration

coal smoke and mortality in an early industrial economy air pollution was severe in the 19th century yet its health consequences are often overlooked due to a lack of pollution data we offer a new approach for inferring local coal use levels based on local industrial structure and industry specific coal use intensity this allows us to provide the first estimates of the mortality effects of british industrial coal use in 1851 1860 exploiting wind patterns for identification we find that a one standard deviation increase in coal use raised infant mortality by 6 8 and that industrial coal use explains roughly one third of the urban mortality penalty observed during this period this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

fiscal consequences of public corruption empirical evidence from state bond ratings empirical analyses of public corruption focus predominantly on international differences regional differences in public corruption within a single country receive little attention we empirically investigate the effect of public corruption in the united states on state bond ratings which previous research shows are inversely related to net interest costs on public debt after controlling for various economic influences on bond ratings we find that more corrupt states have lower bond ratings which implies that taxpayers in more corrupt states face a negative pecuniary externality by paying a premium for debt

unemployment in canada and the united states reduced form unemployment equations containing aggregate demand structural and frictional variables are estimated for canada and the united states post 1981 increases in unemployment rates are explained almost entirely by aggr egate demand variables although structural sectoral variables make i mportant contributions to changes in the gap between the two countrie s unemployment rates for both countries the results support the fo llowing monetarist propositions monetary variables are the prime determinants of the business cycle exogenous investment shocks are typically of minor importance and macro policy has tended to be dest abilizing

does foreign aid corrupt abstract we estimate the impact of foreign aid on corruption using geographical and cultural distance to the donor countries as instrumental variables to assess causality aid decreases corruption our results are statistically and economically significant and robust to different controls

corruption as an occupational choice endogenous corruption and tax policy corruption is endemic in many countries and empirical studies have demonstrated how it impacts on macroeconomic indicators theoretical studies have generally assumed an exogenously given proportion of the population are corrupt or that the public sector is fixed in size far fewer explore how corruption emerges endogenously we endogenize corruption as an occupational choice workers choose private or public employment public employees can be honest or corrupt corruption is subject to a social sanction that results in a loss of self esteem those who care little about the social sanction choose to be corrupt when a firm meets a corrupt public employee it pays a bribe to secure a reduction in the tax rate the economy has two self sustaining equilibria with different levels of corruption corruption reduces tax revenue and the tax rate that maximizes revenue an increase in the social sanction reduces corruption but also reduces tax revenues if the economy is in a high corruption equilibrium paying a wage premium to public sector workers can result in all public sector workers being corrupt public sector audits to detect corrupt workers always reduce corruption but can only increase welfare when they are cheap to conduct and the economy is in a low corruption equilibrium

the short run relationship between sectoral shifts and u s labor market fluctuations monthly data for the aggregate u s economy are used to assess competing hypotheses concerning the relationship between sectoral employment shifts and fluctuations in the unemployment rate it is shown that sectoral shifts are caused by major work stoppages aggregate fluctuations unrelated to permanent sectoral shifts a reallocation timing effect and allocative shocks at the sectoral level larger employment shifts are associated with higher unemployment during slow growth periods and lower unemployment during above average growth periods models are presented which demonstrate that both aggregate and allocative shocks are causes of cyclical increases in unemployment

the impact of corruption on firm tax compliance in transition economies whom do you trust tax compliance is an important issue for gov ernments and the public alike to meet public needs and fund public mandates firms around the world are expected to comply with tax laws factors that are related to orga nizational firm tax compliance have not been sufficiently examined in the literature owing to the increasing global influence of transition economies factors associated with firm tax compliance in transition economies are particu larly of interest based on a sample of over 5 000 firms from 22 former soviet bloc transition economies we find that higher levels of corruption and higher levels of par ticularized trust reliance on friends and family are asso ciated with lower levels of tax compliance interestingly we also find that the negative relationship between cor ruption and tax compliance is weakened in situations of higher generalized trust trust in strangers overall our study s results suggest that institutional factors play an important role and are related to firm tax compliance behavior in transition economies

decentralization and corruption evidence across countries the relationship between decentralization of government activities and the extent of rent extraction by private parties is an important element in the recent debate on institutional design the theoretical literature makes ambiguous predictions about this relationship and it has remained virtually unexamined by empiricists the authors make a first attempt at examining the issue empirically by looking at the cross country relationship between fiscal decentralization and corruption as measured by a number of different indices their estimates suggest that fiscal decentralization in government spending is significantly associated with lower corruption moreover they find that the origin of a country s legal system for example civil versus common legal code performs extremely well as an instrument for decentralization the estimated relationship between decentralization when so instrumented and corruption is even stronger the evidence suggests a number of interesting areas for future work including investigating whether there are specific services for which decentralized provision has a particularly strong impact on political rent extraction and understanding the channels through which decentralization succeeds in keeping corruption in check

killer cities past and present abstract the industrial cities of the 19th century were incredibly unhealthy places to live how much progress has been made in reducing these negative health effects over the past 150 years to help answer this question we compare mortality patterns in 19th century england to those in chinese urban areas in 2000 we document that substantial improvements have been made in improving health in cities over this period unlike historical english cities large cities in china have lower mortality than less populated areas however we also provide evidence that in china a substantial relationship between industrial pollution and mortality remains

openness country size and government abstract this paper shows that smaller countries have a larger share of public consumption in gdp and are also more open to trade these empirical observations are consistent with recent theoretical models explaining country formation and break up and may account for the observed positive empirical relationship between trade openness and government size

a dynamic model of corruption deterrence abstract this paper presents a model of corruption deterrence with a simple overlapping generations structure built into it a crucial assumption is that when corruption becomes more prevalent in the economy it is harder to audit a corrupt official effectively it is shown that this assumption may give rise to several stationary equilibrium levels of corruption this possibility has been exploited to explain why sometimes a government may temporarily resort to an extremely severe deterrence policy and why the same deterrence scheme may imply quite different levels of corruption a case study is provided to give empirical support to the model

tax structure and the size of government an empirical analysis of the fiscal illusion and fiscal stress arguments this study attempts to fulfill a number of objectives one is the possible reconciliation of two divergent strains of thought concerning the size of government fiscal illusion and fiscal stress in this respect the results show little evidence of fiscal illusion but provide support for some of the notions associated with the fiscal stress hypothesis namely the effects of revenue and income variability on the size of government

hold your nose and vote corruption and public decisions in a representative democracy this paper analyzes how corruption alters policy decisions in democracy and examines whether this distortion can result in a long term persistence of corruption even when the voters are well informed and rational by applying a citizen candidate model of representative democracy the paper analyzes how corruption distorts the allocation of resources between public and private consumption altering the policy preferences of elected and nonelected citizens in opposite directions the outcome is a reduction in real public expenditure and if the median voter s demand for public goods is sufficiently elastic a reduction in taxes in this case some citizens benefit indirectly from corruption the paper also presents some empirical evidence that in democratic countries corruption results in lower tax revenue and proceeds to show that when this occurs citizens anticipating a shift in preferences in favor of public expenditure may support institutions that favor corruption this result complements the findings of other studies that have attributed the persistence of corruption in democracy to some failure on the part of the voters or the electoral system it also bears implications for developing effective anticorruption strategies and for redefining the role that can be played by the international community

the beveridge curve and regional disparities in canada the beveridge curve establishes an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the vacancy rate it has been documented and discussed at length by blanchard and diamond 1989 for the united states the unemployment vacancy relationships of the canadian economy and its regions are considered this analysis reveals some important distinctions in the behaviour of the regional baveridge curves and some interesting similarities at the aggregate level the observations are not strikingly different from those of blanchard and diamond for the us economy

a free press is bad news for corruption abstract this paper tests the proposition that a free press may be a powerful control on corruption we find evidence of a significant relationship between more press freedom and less corruption in a large cross section of countries this result is robust to specification and sample and the relationship is not sensitive to the choice of a particular measure of corruption or of press freedom furthermore we present evidence which suggests that the direction of causation runs from higher press freedom to lower corruption

taxes and bribery the role of wage incentives this paper presents a simple model to evaluate alternative payment schemes for tax inspectors in the presence of corruption we consider problems of both moral hazard which arises because taking bribes cannot be observed without costly monitoring and adverse selection since not all potential tax inspectors can be identified as being honest or dishonest we identify three wage regimes first one could pay the same wage that a tax inspector could earn elsewhere his reservation wage second one could pay a wage which solves the moral hazard problem i e deters bribery this we call an efficiency wage by analogy with recent models examined i n macro economics third the government could pay a wage below the reservation wage at which only the dishonest become tax inspectors the capitulation wage we make precise the conditions under which each yields the greatest amount o f tax revenues net o f administrative costs many countries in the developing world are undergoing structural adjustment programmes which require fundamental fiscal changes outside agencies advise restoration of budget balance a task which involves expenditure cuts and tax increases the treatment of public employee pay scales often poses a particular dilemma i n this process wages and salaries are a significant component of government expenditures and one important question concerns the extent to which wages rather than employment cuts should be used to save money there is sometimes a reluctance to advocate wage cuts stemming in part from a feeling that this might impair the performance of the public sector hence tanzi 1990 argues that a policy of wage cutting is likely to increase the inefficiency of public sector employees especially at a time when the public sector is expected to play a larger role in restructuring the economy p 16 in the context of tax collection the issue is particularly pressing given the need to raise more tax revenues a reduction in efficiency in this branch of the government i s likely t o mean that fewer returns are processed and when individuals living standards are squeezed their incentive to accept bribes in lieu o f collecting taxes i s increased o n this count i t i s even sometimes suggested that wages of tax inspectors should be increased to aid the effort to the comments of henry bienen john hey and two anonymous referees have been helpful in revising this paper the authors are also grateful t o the john m olin program for the study o f economic organization and public policy at princeton university and the pew charitable trusts for financial support mclaren also acknowledges support from the international finance section of princeton university none of the above should be implicated in any way see for example goode 1984 chapter 1 3 and gould and amaro reyes 1983

sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment additional empirical evidence 1990 sectoral shifts and aggregate unemployment additional empirical evidence applied economics vol 22 no 3 pp 331 346

price inertia and policy ineffectiveness in the united states 1890 1980 this paper introduces a new approach to the empirical testing of the lucas sargent wallace lsw policy ineffectiveness proposition which compares the lsw hypothesis with an alternative that states that prices respond fully in the long run but only gradually in the short run to nominal aggregate demand disturbances the empirical equations estimated for a new set of quarterly data extending back to 1890 exhibit uniformly high responses of real output and low responses of price changes to anticipated changes in nominal gnp the paper compares and tests three alternative methods of introducing persistence effects into the lsw framework

a new era of pollution progress in urban china abstract over the last 30 years china s economy has boomed this trend has lifted hundreds of millions of chinese out of poverty but it has also sharply increased local regional and global pollu

sectoral shifts stock market dispersion and unemployment in canada considerable attention has been given in the last ten years to estimation of the importance of sectoral shifts in explaining short term fluctuations in unemployment recent studies have used us stock prices data to develop indexes of sectoral shocks less affected by cyclical influence than lilien s employment dispersion index two indexes of sectoral shifts for canada based on the sectoral dispersion of stock prices growth rates are calculated these indexes are then used in unemployment equations incorporating variables measuring aggregate demand shocks and structural changes in order to assess the importance of sectoral and cyclical shocks in the determination of the canadian unemployment rate the estimation leads to the conclusion that the major recessions of 1981 82 and 1990 91 have been caused by aggregate demand shocks however both types of shocks contributed to the 1974 75 recession while the mild recession of 1980 was accompanied by an important sectoral shock estimations also show that the mo