housing prices and the savings of renters abstract this paper studies the effects of housing prices on the net worth of young households because prospective homeowners must accumulate down payments a change in housing prices can change their savings patterns theoretically the effect of increases in house prices on savings is ambiguous because households can increase their saving to afford the larger down payment or decrease their saving because they have chosen to delay or forego purchasing a house using data from the 1984 panel study of income dynamics 27 i show that empirically the effect of increased housing prices on saving is positive and quite large relative to the savings of young households young renter households living in cities with high housing prices have more net worth than those living in cities with lowering housing prices controlling for both the income of the households as well as the per capita income of the city in which they live

the dynamics of real estate prices institute of university of i business and v california at i economic research berkeley fisher center for real estate and urban economics p working paper series working paper no 88 151 the dynamics of real estate prices by these papers are preliminary in nature their purpose is to i e z i d 2f iz e ey bradford case are nottobccited ortluotedin john mq quigley any publication without the ex press permission of the author walter a haas school of business

elicitation format and sensitivity to scope this paper undertakes a systematiccomparison of the contingent valuation cv andchoice experiments ce methods andinvestigates the extent to which either of themare affected by insensitivity to scope this isachieved by undertaking separate cv estimatesof willingness to pay for two nested publicgoods both of which are explicitly included ina parallel ce survey the results indicate thatce values exhibit greater sensitivity to scopethan cv values ce gives significantly largerresults than cv for the more inclusive publicgood and significantly smaller results for theless inclusive public good

giving stated preference respondents time to think results from four countries previous studies have found that contingent valuation cv respondents who are given overnight to reflect on a cv scenario have 30 40 lower average willingness to pay wtp than respondents who are interviewed in a single session this time to think ttt effect could explain much of the gap between real and hypothetical wtp observed in experimental studies yet giving time to think is still rare in binary or multinomial discrete choice studies we review the literature on increasing survey respondents opportunities to reflect on their answers and synthesize results from parallel ttt studies on private vaccine demand in four countries across all four countries we find robust and consistent evidence from both raw data and multivariate models for a ttt effect giving respondents overnight to think reduced the probability that a respondent said he or she would buy the hypothetical vaccines average wtp fell approximately 40 respondents with time to think were also more certain of their answers and a majority said they used the opportunity to consult with their spouse or family we conclude with a discussion of why researchers might be hesitant to adopt the ttt methodology

evaluating income streams a decision analysis approach most important decision problems virtually all capital investiments and planning situations involve risky cash flows with uncertainties that are resolved over time in most of these problems the decision maker has access to financial markets and may borrow and lend to smooth consumption over time yet because of the difficulty of incorporating these borrowing and lending decisions into the evaluation models these opportunities are rarely explicitly modeled in decision and risk analyses of these investments in this paper we study the errors induced by failing to account for these borrowing and lending decisions and we develop extensions to the standard decision and risk analysis procedures that given certain market and preference assumptions take these borrowing and lending opportunities into account without overburdening the evaluation models

intergenerational transfers borrowing constraints and saving behavior evidence from the housing market abstract we examine the effects of intergenerational transfers on saving behavior by analyzing transfers targeted to first time home purchases transfer recipients have a shorter time to save for a down payment of 9 20 for each dollar of transfer received total savings falls by 29 40 cents and the down payment rises by 61 71 cents transfer recipients increase the value of the home purchased but by an amount that is much lower than possible if the transfer were fully leveraged in addition transfers appear to help households achieve certain down payment thresholds that give favorable mortgage terms

allocation inflexibilities female labor supply and housing assets accumulation are women working to pay the mortgage this article uses data from the 1986 canadian family expenditures survey to estimate a life cycle consistent model of household labor supply and commodity demand that incorporates a mortgage qualification constraint based on earnings both the parametric and nonparametric implications of the model suggest that the labor supply of a nontrivial percentage of married women is constrained by mortgage commitments the results of generalized selectivity models of female labor force participation and labor supply show that the positive effect of a high debt service ratio exceeds the negative effect of young children

measuring the importance of location in house price appreciation abstract this paper examines the variation in the rates of price appreciation within an individual metropolitan market a methodology is developed to examine the locational variation in house price changes in dade county miami florida from 1971 to 1992 house price appreciation appears to be somewhat spatially related that is it varies by municipality with distance from the cbd with local changes in population and housing units and by ethnic mix however these relationships have minimal explanatory power controlling for the census tract group location of each home explains only around 12 of the residual variation in the appreciation of individual homes that is not explained by metropolitan wide changes in house prices the effect of tract group location appears to be dominated by the idiosyncratic influences of individual homes and their immediate environments

rehabilitation decisions in rental housing an empirical analysis abstract housing policy makers show increased interest in encouraging rehabilitation of the existing housing stock but little is known about what factors influence the decision to invest particularly in rental housing making policy design difficult this paper presents an empirical analysis of individual landlords housing rehabilitation decisions in one housing market the analysis tests hypotheses about the impacts of detailed neighborhood structure and site characteristics on each owner s investment activity findings support the general hypothesis that economic returns to investment have a major effect on rehabilitation decisions identify some other important circumstances and suggest which among many specific policy levers should be effective

estimating the private benefits of vaccination against cholera in beira mozambique a travel cost approach abstract this paper reports the results of the first study that estimates households private demand for cholera vaccines using the travel cost method we take advantage of an unusual natural experiment in january 2004 more than 41 000 residents from various locations in beira mozambique received two doses of oral cholera vaccine free of charge during the first vaccination trial to test its effectiveness in an endemic cholera zone of africa about 30 000 people participated from outside the target zone resulting in long queues and an average waiting time of about 85 min per dose we estimated travel cost models of the revealed demand for cholera vaccines among households informed of the trial using information collected in in person interviews conducted during the summer of 2005 to explore households participation in the trial we used standard and zero inflated household count models for all household members and dichotomous choice models for the head of the household our analysis shows that the quantity of vaccines obtained by households and the likelihood of participation decreased as travel cost in time and transport expenses rose our best estimates of per capita willingness to pay for the two required doses of cholera vaccine are about 0 85 usd these estimates are sensitive to the assumed value of time spent acquiring vaccines

adoption and diffusion of an innovation of uncertain profitability the argument has frequently been made that the pattern of diffusion associated with most new innovations will typically have certain characteristics a diffusion curve for an innovation is usually defined as the proportion of its potential users who have already adopted as a function of time measured from the first adoption many empirical studies by both economists and other social scientists have shown that diffusion curves nearly always have two distinct characteristics i they are s shaped the proportion adopted is an increasing function of time which is initially convex but eventually becomes concave and ii they tend to be right hand skewed the inflection point occurs at a time corresponding to a proportion adopted which is less than one half so that the function is concave over the greatest amount of time in fact this skewing is occasionally severe enough to make the diffusion curve appear concave everywhere the focus of most empirical studies of innovation diffusion has centered on identification of either the major determinants of the speed of diffusion or the characteristics of firms which determine how long they delay adoption the seminal contributions are griliches 6 study of hybrid corn and mansfield s 121 study of 12 industrial innovations these studies and most of the similar ones following conclude that diffusion is faster for innovations with higher profitability and that large firms tend to be the earliest adopters some studies e g mansfield 121 herregat 71 have attempted to ascertain

applied welfare economics with discrete choice models economists have been paying increasing attention to the study of situations in which consumers face a discrete rather than a continuous set of choices such models are potentially very important in evaluating the impact of government programs upon consumer welfare but very little has been said in general regarding the tools of applied welfare economics indiscrete choice situations this paper shows how the conventional methods of applied welfare economics can be modified to handle such cases it focuses on the computation of the excess burden of taxation and the evaluation of quality change the results are applied to stochastic utility models including the popular cases of probit and logit analysis throughout the emphasis is on providing rigorous guidelines for carrying out applied work this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

risk aversion information acquisition and technology adoption we use a dynamic programming model to study the impacts of risk aversion on information acquisition in technology adoption decisions in this model the benefit of the technology is uncertain and in each period the decision maker dm may adopt the technology reject the technology or pay to acquire a signal about the benefit of the technology the dynamic programming state variables are the dm s wealth and a probability distribution that describes the dm s beliefs about the benefit of the technology these distributions are updated over time using bayes rule if the signal generating process satisfies the monotone likelihood ratio property and the dm is risk neutral the value functions and policies satisfy natural monotonicity properties a likelihood ratio improvement in the distribution on benefits leads to an increase in the value function and moves the dm away from rejection and toward adoption with risk aversion the value functions now representing expected utilities will be monotonic but

the risk averse and prudent newsboy the effects of risk and risk aversion in the single period inventory newsboy problem are examined comparative static effects of changes in the various price and cost parameters are determined and related to the newsboy s risk aversion the addition of a random background wealth and of an increase in the riskiness of newspaper demand are also examined although many of the comparative effects generally are ambiguous some fairly simple restrictions on preferences and or risk increases are shown to lead to qualitatively deterministic results

cross tenure differences in home maintenance and appreciation this paper investigates the relative maintenance levels of owner and renter occupied housing by examining their short and long run appreciation rates we modify the standard repeat sales estimation procedure to test whether owner occupied housing appreciates faster than renter occupied housing this procedure holds constant all structural factors except for aging hence appreciation is estimated net of physical depreciation i e routine aging deficient and deferred maintenance we find only weak evidence to support the notion that long term rates of appreciation and maintenance levels are substantially different between owner and renter occupied housing

interest rate variations mortgage prepayments and household mobility the volatility of interest rates and the deregulation of the mortgage lending sector have meant that many homeowners also own mortgages at terms more favorable than current interest rates this paper presents a model of residential mobility decisions and an empirical analysis that evaluates the importance of the ownership of these mortgages upon the mobility of homeowners the results based upon proportional and nonproportional hazard models indicate that these effects are quite large the empirical analysis distinguishes between different regulatory regimes that govern the assumption of existing mortgages and indicates the implications of these findings for the pricing and valuation of mortgage backed securities copyright 1987 by mit press

capital gains taxation and residential mobility in sweden abstract theoretical studies have shown that capital gains taxes in the housing market may create lock in effects but so far no empirical evidence has been presented regarding the size of these effects for a panel of swedish house owners in 1984 1990 we show that lock in effects only appear for households with income reductions the size of these lock in effects crucially depends on the magnitude of the income loss the theoretical model and features of the swedish tax system imply that lock in effects depend on the degree of mismatch in the current residence and whether the households buy up or buy down

the demand for a malaria vaccine evidence from ethiopia this study measures the monetary value households place on preventing malaria in tigray ethiopia we estimate a household demand function for a hypothetical malaria vaccine and compute the value of preventing malaria as the household s maximum willingness to pay to provide vaccines for all family members this is contrasted with the traditional costs of illness medical costs and lost productivity our results indicate that the value of preventing malaria with vaccines is about us 36 per household per year or about 15 of imputed annual household income this is on average about twice the expected household cost of illness

giving respondents time to think in contingent valuation studies a developing country application abstract this paper evaluates whether the time given people to think about their responses to cvm valuation questions influences their answers our study was conducted in nigeria as part of an evaluation of rural households willingness to pay for public taps and private connections to improved drinking water systems respondents who were allowed time to evaluate the proposed water system bid significantly less than those who did not have that time moreover this conclusion was upheld regardless of whether the water system was a public tap or a private connection

risk aversion in inventory management traditional inventory models focus on risk neutral decision makers i e characterizing replenishment strategies that maximize expected total profit or equivalently minimize expected total cost over a planning horizon in this paper we propose a framework for incorporating risk aversion in multiperiod inventory models as well as multiperiod models that coordinate inventory and pricing strategies we show that the structure of the optimal policy for a decision maker with exponential utility functions is almost identical to the structure of the optimal risk neutral inventory and pricing policies these structural results are extended to models in which the decision maker has access to a partially complete financial market and can hedge its operational risk through trading financial securities computational results demonstrate that the optimal policy is relatively insensitive to small changes in the decision maker s level of risk aversion

the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth a multiple country test of an oath script hypothetical bias is one of the main issues bedeviling the field of nonmarket valuation the general criticism is that survey responses reflect how people would like to behave rather than how they actually behave in our study of climate change and carbon emissions reductions based on the increasing bulk of evidence from psychology and economics regarding the effects of making promises we investigate the effect of an oath script in a contingent valuation survey the survey was conducted in sweden and china and its results indicate that an oath script has significant effects on respondent behavior in answering willingness to pay wtp questions in both countries the shares of zero wtp responses and extremely high wtp responses decrease when an oath script is used resulting in lower variance furthermore the conditional wtp decreases in the chinese but not in the swedish sample we also find that the effect of the oath script is not generally dependent on respondent characteristics and the few differences we observe vary with the countries

do hypothetical and actual marginal willingness to pay differ in choice experiments application to the valuation of the environment abstract in this paper we test the validity of choice experiments with donations for environmental projects in particular we test whether or not there are differences in preferences between a hypothetical and an actual choice experiment our experiments indicate no differences in addition internal tests of validity indicate transitive and stable preferences in both experiments although there are some indications of possible learning effects during the experiment

the dispersion of us state unemployment rates the role of market and non market equilibrium factors partridge m d and rickman d s 1997 the dispersion of us state unemployment rates the role of market and nonmarket equilibrium factors reg studies 31 593 607 european nations particularly the uk have been observed to have persistent dispersion in regional unemployment rates the dispersion is often hypothesized to be caused by centralized collective bargaining and government policies that limit regional labour market adjustments although the us labour market is considered more exible possessing higher rates of labour mobility and less government mandates there also is persistent dispersion in us state unemployment rates this paper investigates the factors that underlie the persistent dispersion in us state unemployment rates the factors examined include amenities crime education home ownership and residency patterns industry composition and international migration partridge m d et rickman d s 1997 la dispersion des taux de chomage aux etats unis sur le plan des etats l importa

the determinants of information value synthesizing some general results this paper identifies the determinants of information value and synthesizes some general results concerning their effects while some attributes of an information system exhibit a consistent directional effect on information value attributes of the decision setting and decision maker do not

using conjoint analysis to quantify public preferences over the environmental impacts of wind farms an example from spain this paper focuses on the effect on people s utility of the potential environmental impacts of wind farm developments we report on research designed to provide insight into their preferences and we show how two alternative choice modelling techniques can be used to estimate them our results show that significant social costs in the form of environmental impacts can be associated with wind farm developments as relative environmental values are revealed by these methods it would be possible to develop wind farms in such a way that minimises the total social costs of the investment and which maximises its net benefits

a note on the benefits of homeownership abstract this brief note adds to recent work that attempts to identify externalities associated with homeownership the results suggest that some of the homeownership effect found by green and white is driven by family characteristics associated with homeownership especially residential stability however as much as homeownership increases residential stability it appears to be correlated with higher school attainment attempts to control for endogeneity cannot eliminate this finding

homeownership and investment in risky assets abstract this paper uses the 1989 survey of consumer finances to show that committed expenditures related to homeownership cause agents to hold their financial assets in a safe form this work follows theoretical results by fratantoni 5 which show that the mortgage commitment leads to reduced risky asset holding and empirical results by guisoet al 7 which show that agents with uncertain labor income hold fewer risky assets i find that doubling the median homeowner s mortgage payment income ratio leads to a 15 decrease in the risky share

between economic loss and social identity the multi dimensional cost of avoiding deforestation in eastern madagascar this paper exhibits the multiple dimensions of the cost of stopping the main driver of deforestation in madagascar slash and burn agriculture tavy as well as being a major component of the economic livelihoods of most local households living at the edge of forests tavy has been described by anthropologists as an important cultural practice in this paper we show that stopping tavy does not only entail an economic cost for local households the loss of the cultural dimension of tavy would come at an additional cultural cost for some our results suggest that a viable cessation of deforestation in madagascar would require going beyond simple compensation of the opportunity costs of avoiding deforestation

prices parents and young people s household formation an economic theory of young people s decision to live apart from parents is presented and used to structure econometric analyses of the processes of leaving the parental home and returning to it which employ data from the british household panel survey for the first half of the 1990s the econometric estimates support the predictions of the theory in particular tighter housing markets as indicated by higher regional relative house prices significantly retard home leaving especially the formation of partnerships and encourage returns to the parental home young people with larger current income are more likely to leave but less likely to return to the parental home

spatial lock in do falling house prices constrain residential mobility abstract falling house prices have caused numerous homeowners to suffer capital losses those with little home equity may be prevented from moving because of imperfections in housing finance markets the proceeds from the sale of their home may be insufficient to repay their mortgage and provide a down payment on a new home a data set of mortgages is used to examine the magnitude of these constraints estimates show that average mobility would have been 24 higher after 3 years had house prices not declined and after 4 years it would have been 33 higher among those with high initial loan to value ratios the differences are even greater

redlining in boston do mortgage lenders discriminate against neighborhoods historically lenders have been accused of redlining minority neighborhoods as well as refusing to lend to minority applicants considerable bank regulation is designed to prevent both actions however the strong correlation between race and neighborhood makes it difficult to distinguish the impact of geographic discrimination from the effects of racial discrimination previous studies have failed to untangle these two influences in part because of severe omitted variable bias the data set in this paper allows the distinct effects of race and geography to be identified and it shows that the evidence for redlining is weak

rethinking cholera and typhoid vaccination policies for the poor private demand in kolkata india summary the old familiar diseases of cholera and typhoid remain a serious health threat in many developing countries health policy analysts often argue that vaccination against cholera and typhoid should be provided free because poor people cannot afford to pay for such vaccines and because vaccination confers positive economic externalities on unvaccinated individuals in 2004 we conducted a contingent valuation cv survey of 835 randomly selected adults from two neighborhoods in kolkata india to provide information on private demand for cholera and typhoid vaccines for themselves and for household members to support more nuanced financial and economics analyses of such vaccination programs the median private economic benefits of providing a typhoid vaccine to a household with five members is about us 23 in a middle income neighborhood us 27 for a cholera vaccine and us 14 in a low income slum us 15 for a cholera vaccine our research raises an intriguing possibility if user charges were set at a level to recover the costs of a vaccination program there could be sufficient demand for the vaccine so that coverage of the vaccinated population might ensure that all the remaining unvaccinated individuals would be protected as well through indirect herd protection

the social and private micro level consequences of homeownership abstract this paper reviews the literature that describes the micro level economic and social consequences of homeownership we adopt an interdisciplinary approach and include studies from economics sociology geography political science psychology and other disciplines our focus is on the set of consequences of homeownership in developed countries our list of potential outcomes of homeownership includes the impact on household wealth and portfolio choice mobility labor force participation urban structure and segregation home maintenance political and social activities health demographics self esteem and child outcomes there is substantial evidence that homeownership has important effects on some household behaviors and outcomes however we find that much of the past 30 year s literature on consequences of homeowning is deficient from a theoretical or econometric perspective we suggest solutions and identify research gaps present in the literature

reliability of stated preferences for cholera and typhoid vaccines with time to think in hue vietnam weexaminetheeffectofgivingrespondentstimetothinkabouttheirstatedchoices sc in a survey of cholera and typhoid vaccine preferences in hue vietnam because neither vaccine is widely available in vietnam we used the sc approach a stated preference technique and gave half of our respondents overnight to think about their choices to make the hypothetical valuation scenario as similar to a real life choice situation as possible respondents who were given extra time made fewer choices that violated internal validity tests of utility theory and had lower average willingness to pay wtp confirming a result found in similar studies in the contingent valuation literature jel d12 i18 c25

the transition to home ownership and the black white wealth gap this paper analyzes differences in the likelihood that black and white families become homeowners by following a sample of black and white renters over time we are able to separately study racial differences in the likelihood of applying for a mortgage and in the likelihood that a mortgage application is accepted although its effect on the race gap in housing transitions is small we find strong evidence that black applicants are almost twice as likely as comparable white households to be rejected even when credit history proxies and measures of household wealth are accounted for we show that the housing transition gap exists primarily because blacks are less likely to apply for mortgages in the first place the analysis suggests that differences in income family structure and in the ability and willingness of parents to provide down payment assistance are the primary reasons for this applications gap we speculate that the portion of the gap that remains unexplained after controlling for income d

information acquisition and the adoption of new technology the profitability of a new technology is rarely known with certainty at its announcement date consequently prior to making an adoption decision it behooves the firm considering the adoption of this innovation to reduce the level of uncertainty associated with its profitability the firm accomplishes this by sequentially gathering information updating its prior estimate of profitability in a bayesian manner quantifying the uncertainty regarding the innovation permits application of dynamic programming techniques criteria are derived which tell the firm when to stop collecting information and make the adoption decision it will be shown that it is optimal for the firm to continue to collect information until its estimate of profitability crosses one of two thresholds upon crossing the upper threshold the firm adopts the technology whereas the firm rejects the technology if the lower threshold is crossed the model predicts that even the manager who behaves optimally will occasionally adopt unprofitable technologies and reject profitable ones

consumption down payments and liquidity constraints one frequently cited explanation for the empirical failure of the orthodox life cycle permanent income hypothesis lc pih is the presence of binding liquidity constraints households inability to borrow and lend at the same interest rate or to borrow the desired quantity can distort household consumption profiles depressing consumption during periods when constraints bind whether or not liquidity constraints bind has important implications for the sensitivity of consumption to fluctuations in income the neutrality of government debt and the structure of taxation despite the potential importance of liquidity constraints in understanding macroeconomic behavior there has been comparatively little research into the effect of specific constraints on consumption one area of consumer behavior where liquidity constraints arguably may be important is in housing decisions and mortgage markets households wishing to own a first home must accumulate a down payment in order to qualify for a mortgage loan currently for conventional mortgages in the united states most lending institutions require between s percent and 20 percent of the purchase price of the home put down in advance of the purchase 2 without access to private gifts or loans many

the economic determinants of young people s household formation the paper derives predictions about the impact of the price of housing young adults income and parental income on the probability that a young adult in the united kingdom lives apart from his her parents it shows that the predicted effect of the price of housing is intimately related to the price elasticity of housing demand it uses longitudinal data on a cohort of britons born in 1958 surveyed in the national child development study to estimate dynamic models of first departure from the parental home and particularly to estimate the impact of housing price on the timing and destination of first departure excerpt

the influence of task complexity on consumer choice a latent class model of decision strategy switching the literature indicating that person context and task specific factors cause consumers to utilize different decision strategies has generally failed to affect the specification of choice models used by practitioners and academics alike who still tend to assume an utility maximizing omniscient indefatigable consumer this article 1 introduces decision strategy selection within a maintained compensatory framework into aggregate choice models via latent classes which arise because of task complexity 2 it demonstrates that within an experimental choice task the model reflects changing aggregate preferences as choice complexity changes and as the task progresses the import of these findings for current practice model interpretation and future research needs is examined

understanding the tax revolt eight explanations numerous explanations of the tax revolt have been offered since california s adoption of proposition 13 in 1978 unfortunately many of these explanations remain untested or have been tested inappropriately and the explanations are often jumbled together in a fashion that precludes theoretical clarity we extract eight explanations from the literature each of which assumes that the tax revolt is a systematic national phenomenon that is a function of individual level social economic and political factors having tested these explanations by means of a discriminant analysis of data from the 1978 american national election study we find little empirical corroboration for any of them this leads us to consider two alternative research programs one of which interprets the tax revolt within a symbolic politics framework

does cheaper faster or better imply sooner in the timing of innovation decisions a common myth conception based upon the notion of increasing returns to scale in r d activity is that large firms account for a disproportionate share of innovations in this paper we consider three types of informational returns to scale cheaper faster and better and examine the impact of each on the timing of the firm s innovation decision contrary to popular conception the decision is made later when information is cheaper and the change in timing is unsignable in the case of faster arrival of information only more accurate better information leads to earlier decisions

monotone comparative statics under uncertainty this paper analyzes monotone comparative statics predictions in several classes of stochastic optimization problems the main results characterize necessary and sufficient conditions for comparative statics predictions to hold based on properties of primitive functions that is utility functions and probability distributions the results apply when the primitives satisfy one of the following two properties i a single crossing property which arises in applications such as portfolio investment problems and auctions or ii log supermodularity which arises in the analysis of demand functions affiliated random variables stochastic orders and orders over risk aversion

are fast responses more random testing the effect of response time on scale in an online choice experiment scepticism over stated preference surveys conducted online revolves around the concerns over professional respondents who might rush through the questionnaire without sufficiently considering the information provided to gain insight on the validity of this phenomenon and test the effect of response time on choice randomness this study makes use of a recently conducted choice experiment survey on ecological and amenity effects of an offshore windfarm in the uk the positive relationship between self rated and inferred attribute attendance and response time is taken as evidence for a link between response time and cognitive effort subsequently the generalised multinomial logit model is employed to test the effect of response time on scale which indicates the weight of the deterministic relative to the error component in the random utility model results show that longer response time increases scale i e decreases choice randomness this positive scale effect of response time is further found to be non linear and wear off at some point beyond which extreme response time decreases scale while response time does not systematically affect welfare estimates higher response time increases the precision of such estimates these effects persist when self reported choice certainty is controlled for implications of the results for online stated preference surveys and further research are discussed

a comparison of stated preference methods for environmental valuation this paper presents an empirical comparison of contingent valuation cvm and choice experiments which are used to value environmental quality changes both of these methods require individuals to state their preferences for environmental qualities however choice experiments differ from cvm in that environmental attributes are varied in an experimental design which requires respondents to make repeated choices between bundles of attributes the empirical application involved the effect of environmental quality changes arising from forest management practices on recreational moose hunting values significant differences were found between the values derived from the two methods however detailed examination of the implied choice behaviour suggested that respondents ignored substitute recreation areas in the cvm question restricting the choice experiment model to consider only the one site where quality was varied resulted in welfare estimates similar to the cvm model this highlights the importance of substitutes in environmental valuation and suggests that choice experiments may be more appropriate than cvm in some cases