cores of inventory centralization games abstract consider a set of n stores with single item and single period demands assume an option of centralized ordering and inventory with holding and penalty costs only in this case a cooperative inventory centralization game defines allocations of the cost we examine the conditions under which such an inventory centralization game has a nonempty core we prove the existence of nonempty core for demands with symmetric distributions and the existence of nonempty core for joint multivariate normal demand distribution we establish the equivalency of four different nonempty core conditions for the newsboy problem and demonstrate their efficacy for discrete independent and identically distributed iid demands journal of economic literature classification numbers c44 c62 c71

the impacts of tourism energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the mena countries using panel data of 24 countries in the middle east and north african mena region from 2001 to 2009 the purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of tourism energy consumption and political instability on economic growth within the neoclassical growth framework to address the objective of this study we utilise both the static panel data approach as well as the dynamic generalised method of moments gmm estimator to examine the impact of candidate variables our results show that energy consumption and tourism significantly contribute to the economic growth of countries in the mena region hence our study lends some support to the existence of the tourism led growth and energy led growth hypotheses in the region in line with our expectation our estimation results also reveal that political instability impedes the process of economic growth and development in the mena region therefore macroeconomic policies to promote expansion in tourism and energy consumption will directly stimulate economic growth additionally efforts to help the region overcome its history of political instability would attract more international tourist arrivals and further invigorate economic growth

testing dependence between gdp and tourism s growth rates abstract the main aim of this paper is to link the economic behaviour and statistical properties of gdp and tourism receipts growth rates through modelling the dependence to that end two developed economies such as the united kingdom non tourist oriented and spain tourist oriented and an emerging economy such as croatia tourist oriented are considered as case studies therefore a copula based garch approach is employed to describe the dependence structure between gdp and tourism receipts growth rates in this respect any causality and cointegration between tourism and gdp could justify public policies that promote a more efficient public resource allocation in the tourism industry additionally evidence of dependence between growth rates can justify the extent and direction of these policies results indicate that there is a significant asymmetric and positive dependence between tourism and gdp growth rates for the three countries studied though only for croatia is it time varying over time

tourism as a long run economic growth factor the spanish case this paper examines the role of tourism in the spanish long run economic development the tourism led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing the results indicate that at least during the last three decades economic growth in spain has been sensible to persistent expansion of international tourism the increase of this activity has produced multiplier effects over time external competitivity has also been proved in the model to be a fundamental variable for spanish economic growth from the empirical analysis it can be inferred the positive effects on income that government policy in the adequacy of supply as well as in the promotion of tourist activity may bring about

the contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the korean economy abstract this study investigates the causal relations between tourism growth and economic expansion for the korean economy by using engle and granger two stage approach and a bivariate vector autoregression var model two principle results emerge from this study first the results of a cointegration test indicate that there is no long run equilibrium relation between two series second the outcomes of granger causality test imply the one way causal relationship of economic driven tourism growth the hypothesis of tourism led economic growth is not held in the korean economy this consequence is supported by testing the sensitivity of causality test under different lag selections along with the optimal lag

revisiting the tourism led growth hypothesis for turkey using the bounds test and johansen approach for cointegration abstract this paper empirically revisits and investigates the tourism led growth tlg hypothesis in the case of turkey by employing the bounds test and johansen approach for cointegration using annual data from 1960 2006 although gunduz and hatemi j 2005 is the tourism led growth hypothesis valid for turkey applied economics letters 12 499 504 support the tlg hypothesis for turkey suggesting unidirectional causation from tourism to economic growth by making use of the leveraged bootstrap causality tests and ongan and demiroz 2005 the contribution of tourism to the long run turkish economic growth ekonomick casopis journal of economics 53 9 880 894 suggest bidirectional causality between international tourism and economic growth in turkey this study does not find any cointegration between international tourism and economic growth in turkey therefore unlike the findings of gunduz and hatemi j 2005 and ongan and demiroz 2005 this study rejects the tlg hypothesis for the turkish economy since no cointegration was found and error correction mechanisms plus causality tests cannot be run for further steps in the long term

modelling income effects on long and short haul international travel from japan abstract international travel and tourism are among the most dynamic sectors in the modern economy the phenomenal growth in international tourist arrivals has significantly outpaced global economic growth over the previous five decades with particularly strong growth in the asia and pacific regions among other factors changes in aircraft technology economic prosperity and international air service liberalization in the late 1970s have contributed to the growth in the japanese long haul outbound travel demand the prolonged economic recession in japan in the 1990s has changed japanese outbound tourist preferences for travel to short haul destinations income in the origin country is arguably the most widely used explanatory variable in the extant empirical tourism demand literature this paper examines the dynamic relationship between travel demand and real income in japan using linear and nonlinear models in order to distinguish between travel demand to taiwan and new zealand which are two short and long haul markets for japan the empirical findings that new zealand has a higher income elasticity of demand as compared with taiwan should be useful for tourism authorities in developing better informed policies and to manage tourism resources efficiently in destination marketing

how stable is the tourism led growth hypothesis in malaysia evidence from disaggregated tourism markets abstract we contribute to the tourism growth literature by applying the newly developed combined cointegration test and the recursive granger causality test to re assess the stability of the tourism led growth hypothesis in malaysia with respect to 12 different tourism markets the cointegration test results suggest that economic growth of malaysia is cointegrated with all the 12 selected tourism markets however the recursive granger causality test shows that the tourism led growth hypothesis in malaysia is valid and stable with respect to tourist arrivals from only 8 out of the 12 tourism markets almost all of them are from developed countries hence not all international visitor arrivals could effectively drive the growth of the malaysian economy in light of this tourism marketing policies should focus more on those tourism markets that could significantly stimulate economic growth however there should not be total neglect of others as they potentially contribute to the economies of scale

tourism welfare and de industrialization in a small open economy this paper investigates the effects of an expansion of tourism on welfare output and factor prices in the host country using a general equilibrium international trade model in the absence of taxes foreign ownership and distortions an increase in foreign visitors will increase welfare only if the price of nontradables increases factor mobility and foreign ownership tend to reduce the gains from tourism while commodity taxes tend to increase them conditions under which an increase in tourism can lead to deindustrialization are also discussed copyright 1991 by the london school of economics and political science

the effects of selling packaged goods on inventory decisions in this paper we study within a newsboy type modeling framework the common business practice of retail firms to sell products not only as independent items but also as part of multiproduct packets packaged goods our emphasis is on understanding the effects of such practices on the inventory decisions of the firm we provide insights on the resulting level of suboptimality when inventory decisions are made with demand information only on the independent items and without accounting for the demand substitution structure induced between independent items and packaged goods our stylized model studies an environment with two products that are not direct substitutes for each other sold either independently or as part of a packet that contains one unit of each we provide necessary and sufficient optimality conditions for this model and suggest an efficient numerical search for obtaining the optimal stocking levels an extensive computational study allowed us to provide insights on the nature of the optimal stocking policies the suboptimality of independent newsboy policies the effects of demand correlation among individual products and multiproduct packets and the determining role of induced substitution structure among products during stockout occasions on the profitability of the inventory system

the eco efficiency of tourism the use of fossil energy is one of the major environmental problems associated with tourism and travel consequently the need to limit fossil energy use has been highlighted as a precondition for achieving sustainable tourism development however tourism is also one of the most important sectors of the world economy and fears have thus been expressed by the tourist industry and its organisations that increasing energy prices for example as a result of eco taxes could substantially decrease the economic welfare of countries and destinations in this article the interplay of environmental damage and economic gains is thus analysed within the context of tourism carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are assessed in relation to the revenues generated allowing for conclusions about the eco efficiency of tourism

pricing and the news vendor problem a review with extensions in the newsvendor problem a decision maker facing random demand for a perishable product decides how much of it to stock for a single selling period this simple problem with its intuitively appealing solution is a crucial building block of stochastic inventory theory which comprises a vast literature focusing on operational efficiency typically in this literature market parameters such as demand and selling price are exogenous however incorporating these factors into the mode l can provide an excellent vehicle for examining how operational problems interact with marketing issues to influence decision making at the firm level in this paper we examine an extension of the newsvendor problem in which stocking quantity and selling price are set simultaneously we provide a comprehensive review that synthesizes existing results for the single period problem and develop additional results to enrich the existing knowledge base we also review and develop insight into a dynamic inventory extension of this problem and motivate the applicability of such models

electricity supply employment and real gdp in india evidence from cointegration and granger causality tests abstract this study probes nexus between electricity supply employment and real gdp for india within a multivariate framework using autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach of cointegration long run equilibrium relationship has been established among these variables for the time span 1970 71 to 2005 06 the study further establishes long and short run granger causality running from real gdp and electricity supply to employment without any feedback effect thus growth in real gdp and electricity supply are responsible for the high level of employment in india the absence of causality running from electricity supply to real gdp implies that electricity demand and supply side measures can be adopted to reduce the wastage of electricity which would not affect future economic growth of india

oil depletion what does this mean for scottish tourism over the next 10 years scottish tourism is expected to grow by 50 one of the keys to that growth is transport which is a sector that is dependent upon oil this paper considers oil and the global economy and its relationship to scottish tourism consideration is given to the key variables such as oil forecasts security of supply cost of production world demand alternative forms of energy including renewables and nuclear power the combination of these facts means that high oil prices are here to stay two scenarios are constructed called energy inflation and paying for climate change these were developed using a triangulation of methods including the use of systems thinking models to construct the scenarios to computable general equilibrium modelling to analyse the impact of oil and energy price rises on scottish tourism the energy inflation scenario presumes mass belief in the plenitude of available oil reserves and the failure to respond quickly enough to alter demand this triggers a sudden and prolonged period of economic shocks political instability and environmental disasters the paying for climate change scenario assumes rising energy prices combined with conservation measures such as carbon taxes both scenarios raise a number of policy issues for the future including oil and fossil fuels being the main sources of energy as there is no real alternative renewables and nuclear power will continue to grow and countries will try to reduce further their reliance on oil rising oil prices are also noted as a positive feature driving innovation and new technologies which will become more economic as oil prices rise for scottish tourism the impact of rising oil prices could mean a bumpy ride with carbon taxes more wind farms and the possible end of the low cost carrier

on the export led growth hypothesis the econometric evidence from china the export led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented growth equation on the basis of times series data from china the granger no causality procedure developed by toda and yamamoto journal of econometrics 66 1995 was applied to test the causality link between exports and economic growth in a var system three distinct features in this paper stand out compared to earlier studies on china first we have gone beyond the traditional two variable relationship by building a var model in the production function context to avoid a possible specification bias second we follow riezman whiteman and summers empirical economics 21 1996 to test the export led growth hypothesis while controlling for the growth of imports to avoid producing a spurious causality result third we test the sensitivity of causality test results under different lag structures along with the choice of optimal lags in particular the methodology developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 is expected to improve the stan

the newsvendor game has a nonempty core we settle an open conjecture regarding the newsvendor game we prove that its core is always non empty for all possible joint distributions of the random demands we give sufficient conditions under which the core is a singleton or it contains non negative elements

is there a relationship between international trade and international travel this paper investigates for the first time whether there is a relationship between international trade and international travel flows using time series econometric techniques using data for australia and four important travel and trading partners the usa the uk nz and japan the paper tests three specific hypotheses that business travel leads to international trade that international trade leads to international travel and that international travel other than business travel leads to international trade using cointegration and granger causality approaches the paper finds support for prior beliefs that there is a relationship between international travel and international trade and suggests that this may be a fruitful area for further research

the competitive newsboy we consider a competitive version of the classical newsboy problem in which a firm must choose an inventory or production level for a perishable good with random demand and the optimal solution is a fractile of the demand distribution and investigate the impact of competition upon industry inventory a splitting rule specifies how initial industry demand is allocated among competing firms and how any excess demand is allocated among firms with remaining inventory we examine the relation between equilibrium inventory levels and the splitting rule and provide conditions under which there is a unique equilibrium our most general result is that if all excess demand is reallocated i e there is perfect substitutability then competition never leads to a decrease in industry inventory

does tourism effectively stimulate malaysia s economic growth abstract this study attempts to further verify the validity of the tourism led growth hypothesis in malaysia using a multivariate model derived from the solow growth theory it employs annual data from 1975 to 2011 we find that economic growth tourism and other determinants are cointegrated specifically tourism has a positive impact on malaysia s economic growth both in the short run and in the long run the granger causality test indicates that tourism granger causes economic growth all this provides the empirical support for the tourism led growth hypothesis in malaysia in light of this any policy initiative that promotes tourism could contribute to malaysia s economic growth

an empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the uk a general to specific methodology is used to construct uk demand for outbound tourism models to twelve destinations a tourism destination preference index is introduced to take into account social cultural and psychological influences on tourists decisions concerning their overseas holiday destinations the tests support the existence of a cointegration relationship for each of 11 uk overseas holiday destinations the corresponding error correction models are estimated the empirical results show that the long run income elasticities for all destinations range from 1 70 to 3 90 with an average of 2 367 the lowest and highest short run income elasticities are 1 05 and 3 78 respectively with an average of 2 216 the estimates of the income elasticities imply that overseas holidays are highly income elastic while the own price elasticities suggest that the demand for uk outbound tourism is relatively own price inelastic in terms of the significance of substitution prices in the regression equations ir

alcohol consumption during prohibition we estimate the consumption of alcohol during prohibition using mortality mental health and crime statistics we find that alcohol consumption fell sharply at the beginning of prohibition to approximately 30 percent of its pre prohibition level during the next several years however alcohol consumption increased sharply to about 60 70 percent of its pre prohibition level the level of consumption was virtually the same immediately after prohibition as during the latter part of prohibition although consumption increased to approximately its pre prohibition level during the subsequent decade this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

time varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in south africa the causal link between tourism receipts and gdp has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed sample period and methodology employed considering the sensitivity of the causal link we use rolling window and time varying coefficient estimation methods to analyse the parameter stability and granger causality based on a vector error correction model vecm when applied to south africa for the period 1960 2011 the findings are as follows results from the full sample vecm indicate that there is no granger causality between tourism receipts and gdp while the findings from the time varying coefficients model based on the state space representation show that tourism receipts have positive predictive content for gdp for the entire period with the exception of the period between 1985 and 1990 full sample time varying causality tests show bidirectional strong causal

business cycle comovement in the g 7 common shocks or common transmission mechanisms what are the sources of macroeconomic comovement among g 7 countries two main candidate explanations may be singled out common shocks and common transmission mechanisms in the article it is shown that they are complementary rather than alternative explanations by means of a large scale factor vector autoregressive fvar model allowing for full economic and statistical identification of all global and idiosyncratic shocks it is found that both common disturbances and common transmission mechanisms of global and country specific shocks account for business cycle comovement in the g 7 countries moreover spillover effects of foreign idiosyncratic disturbances seem to be a less important factor than the common transmission of global or domestic shocks in the determination of international macro economic comovements

economies of scale in the australian tourism industry the measurement of economies of scale in the tourism industry has not been done to this point as tourism is not a specific industry according to international statistical standards among many industries related to tourism four sectors accommodation transport retail trade and recreational services across six states and two territories from 1997 to 2007 are studied as they contribute nearly 70 of tourism output in australia by comparing regression results from the cobb douglas c d production function and the translog production function we find that there is evidence of increasing returns in transport retail trade and recreational services at the industry level however accommodation is characterized by constant returns to scale at the industry level as accommodation is responsible for the biggest share of tourism output this suggests that overall the tourism sector is not characterized by increasing returns we also find that the degrees of returns to scale from the c d and translog product

does urbanization lead to more direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions evidence from china during 1996 2012 china is experiencing a stage of rapid urban development the energy consumption and related carbon dioxide emissions of households continue to increase this paper calculates direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households based on the input output method in china from 1996 to 2012 the results reveal that there were more total carbon dioxide emissions from urban households than from rural households far more indirect emissions from urban households than from rural households slightly more direct emissions from urban households than from rural households and differences in direct carbon dioxide emissions from various fuels and in indirect emissions from various sectors between urban and rural households to examine the causal relationship between urbanization and the carbon dioxide emissions of households cointegration and granger causality tests are applied a unidirectional causal relation was found running from urbanization to both direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions and the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households would increase 2 9 and 1 1 respectively for every increase of one percent in urbanization we discuss the reasons of why the development of urbanization will lead to more household direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions and suggest certain policy implications for urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions based on the results of this study

tourism led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations new evidence using the quantile on quantile approach this paper examines the empirical validity of the tourism led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations in the world china france germany italy mexico russia spain turkey the united kingdom and the united states using the quantile on quantile qq approach and a new index of tourism activity that combines the most commonly used tourism indicators this methodology recently introduced by sim and zhou 2015 provides an ideal framework with which to capture the overall dependence structure between tourism development and economic growth the empirical results primarily show a positive relation between tourism and economic growth for the ten countries considered with substantial variations across countries and across quantiles within each country the weakest links are noted for china and germany possibly because of the limited importance of the tourism sector relative to other major economic activities in those countries important country specific policy implications may be drawn from these findings

inventory centralization games with price dependent demand and quantity discount consider a distribution system consisting of a set of retailers facing a single period price dependent demand of a single product by taking advantage of the risk pooling effect and the quantity volume discount provided by suppliers or third party carriers the retailers may place joint orders and keep inventory at central warehouses before demand realization and allocate inventory among themselves after demand realization to reduce their operating costs under rather general assumptions we prove that there is a stable allocation of profits among the retailers in the sense that the resulting inventory centralization game has a nonempty core we also show how to compute an allocation in the core

natural gas consumption and economic growth are we ready to natural gas price liberalization in iran this paper examines the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in iran within a multivariate production model we also investigate the effects of natural gas price on its consumption and economic growth using a demand side model the paper employs bounds test approach to level relationship over the period of 1972 007 we find evidence of bidirectional positive relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in short run and long run based on the production model the findings also suggest that real gdp growth and natural gas have positive and negative impacts on gross fixed capital formation respectively employment however was found to have negative but insignificant impact on gross fixed capital formation moreover the estimation results of demand side model suggest that natural gas price has negative and significant impact on natural gas consumption only in the long run though there is insignificant impact on economic growth these results imply that the iranian government s decision for natural gas price liberalization has the adverse effects on economic growth and policy makers should be cautious in doing this policy

tourism demand modelling and forecasting a review of recent research abstract this paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000 one of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles in addition to the most popular time series and econometric models a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature however as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations furthermore this study identifies some new research directions which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches tourism cycles and seasonality analysis events impact assessment and risk forecasting

tourism development and economic growth a closer look at panels abstract this paper applies the new heterogeneous panel cointegration technique to re investigate the long run comovements and causal relationships between tourism development and economic growth for oecd and nonoecd countries including those in asia latin america and sub sahara africa for the 1990 2002 period on the global scale after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect a cointegrated relationship between gdp and tourism development is substantiated it is also determined that tourism development has a greater impact on gdp in nonoecd countries than in oecd countries and when the variable is tourism receipts the greatest impact is in sub sahara african countries additionally the real effective exchange rate has significant effects on economic growth finally in the long run the panel causality test shows unidirectional causality relationships from tourism development to economic growth in oecd countries bidirectional relationships in nonoecd countries but only weak relationships in asia our empirical findings have major policy implications

assessing the importance of international tourism for the turkish economy a social accounting matrix analysis abstract the international tourism sector has grown rapidly in turkey since the 1980s and turkey ranks among the top ten countries in terms of tourist arrivals and receipts previous studies on international tourism in turkey are partial equilibrium studies which emphasized the importance of the sector for foreign exchange earnings employment creation and economic growth the social accounting matrix sam modeling approach is superior to partial equilibrium analysis as it takes into account intersectoral linkages this paper analyzes the contribution of international tourism to the turkish economy using two sams for 1996 and 2002 respectively two analyses are conducted using the sam impact model i sectoral comparison of gdp elasticities and ii sam impact analysis of international tourism on output value added and employment the results show that the gdp elasticity of international tourism is relatively low and the impact of foreign tourist expenditures on domestic production value added gdp and employment in turkey are modest the results imply the possibility of leakage of foreign tourist expenditures out of the economy

exploring the effects of international tourism on china s economic growth energy consumption and environmental pollution evidence from a regional panel analysis abstract this study explores the effects of international tourism on china s economic growth energy consumption and environmental pollution as proxied by co 2 emissions in a multivariate framework using regional panel data over the period 1995 2011 our findings suggest that the tourism induced ekc hypothesis does not exist in central china and is merely weakly supported in eastern and western china however results show that tourism has a negative impact on co 2 emissions in the eastern region which contradicts with our perception to some extent panel causality tests show that the directions of causality in both short and long runs are mixed among regions nevertheless our findings reveal that tourism causally affects economic growth and co 2 emissions in the long run thus tourism led growth hypothesis is verified under all three scenarios our findings also suggest that in all three regions there is bidirectional causality between economic growth and co 2 emissions overall these results imply that low carbon tourism in china should be continuously supported which provides significant insights to policy makers at various government levels

the implications of tourism specialisation in the long run an econometric analysis for 13 oecd economies abstract the paper aims to illumine the longrun impact of specialisation in tourism it is shown that specialisation in tourism may not be deleterious for economic welfare once the terms of trade are considered conditions for an improvement in welfare are laid out and their existence tested by econometric methods within an almost ideal demand system formulation of tourist expenditure for 13 oecd economies the analysis uses cointegration techniques and novel sequential break dating procedures evaluated where the time dimension is small the values of the estimated parameters suggest that long run growth may not be harmed by tourism specialisation

a solution to the problem of externalities when agents are well informed the author describes a class of simple two stage mechanisms that implement efficient allocations as subgame perfect equilibria for economic environments involving externalities these mechanisms known as compensation mechanisms solve a wide variety of externalities problems including implementation of lindahl allocations regulation of monopoly and efficient solutions to the prisoner s dilemma copyright 1994 by american economic association

interactions between energy and imports in singapore empirical evidence from conditional error correction models this study empirically tests for long run equilibrium relationship and the direction of causality between imports and energy consumption in singapore the results of the present study reveal that a long run equilibrium relationship exists between import growth and energy consumption growth in singapore by using bivariate systems imports of singapore converge to long term equilibrium levels by 79 9 percent speed of adjustment through the channel of energy growth furthermore the major finding of this study is that there are long and short term undirectional causalities that run from energy growth to import growth in singapore which denote that energy consumption in singapore is a catalyst for importing

quality and endogenous tourism an empirical approach abstract we propose a theoretical model and an empirical study that highlight the role of quality of tourism services and endogenous tourism in long run economic growth we study a theoretical growth model of international trade where tourism is the growth engine and quality of tourism services has a positive impact on long term growth we also provide an empirical analysis to test the relation between tourism quality and economic growth in spain over the period 1970 2010 our results show that in the long run tourist arrivals quality of tourism accommodations and foreign gdp have a positive effect on spanish gdp in the short term changes in economic growth appear to lead to growth in tourist arrivals our findings support a two way causal relationship between real gdp growth and tourism growth in spain

tourism and economic development the beach disease abstract this paper analyses empirically the danger of a dutch disease effect in tourism dependent countries in the long run data on 134 countries of the world over the period 1970 2007 is used in a first step the long run relationship between tourism and economic growth is analysed in a cross country setting the results are then checked in a panel data framework on gdp per capita levels that allows to control for reverse causality non linearity and interactive effects it is found that there is no danger of a beach disease effect on the contrary tourism dependent countries do not face real exchange rate distortion and deindustrialisation but higher than average economic growth rates investment in physical capital such as for instance transport infrastructure is complementary to investment in tourism

revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets evidence from turkey using the pairwise approach abstract this paper empirically revisits the tourism markets convergence hypothesis narayan 2006 for the case of turkey by employing the newly developed pairwise approach to the analysis of stochastic convergence pesaran 2007 pesaran et al 2009 this new approach allows for unit root tests to be conducted on all possible pairs of tourist arrival differentials across turkey s 20 major tourist source markets thus avoiding the need to choose a base source market or total tourist arrivals figure as the benchmark using monthly data over the period january 1996 to december 2009 the main finding is that despite considerable co movement of international tourist arrivals in turkey there is no evidence of long run convergence among turkey s major tourism markets cluster based club convergence analyses alongside bivariate pairwise estimations confirm the lack of convergence and highlight specific tourist source markets with considerable untapped potential these findings have profound policy implications for turkey s inbound tourism planning and promotion

economy of specialization and diseconomy of externalities abstract suppose the production of x by agent i causes an externality to the production of y by agent j a prerequisite for the existence of an externality problem is that i and j are not far apart and are separate agents but an externality corrective government policy may make j integrate with i or move away and start producing both x and y the above reactions by j essentially change the institutional structure and division of labor and alter the boundary which differentiates what is internal and what is external previous analysis has neglected this aspect for which this paper provides a pioneering analysis

a three person game theory model arising in stochastic inventory control theory abstract in this paper we build a game theory model for a single period inventory problem where each of three retailers tries to determine his optimal order quantity their products are substitutable and have random demands therefore multiple direction demand transfers occur when one or more retailers are sold out it is shown that by using nash equilibrium optimal decision exists for each retailer when they work independently the optimal order quantity in this case is larger than that under the newsboy problem model this is because substitution can be a source of sales and hence a justification for inventory in situations where some retailer may act irrationally to inflict a damage on the others the defensive strategy for the latter is to totally ignore the existence of the irrational player we also study the cooperation of retailers by switching excess inventory to those who have excess demand both when side payments are and are not allowed if side payments are not allowed secure nash strategies always exist for each retailer and cooperation will reduce inventory the latter is especially true when the depreciation of value of the item and or inventory carrying cost are large we give conditions for cooperation in both cases and show that although all player cooperation is often feasible it may not always be obtainable even if side payments are allowed

tourism expansion tourism uncertainty and economic growth new evidence from taiwan and korea abstract this study examines the causal relationship between tourism expansion and economic growth in two asian countries taiwan and south korea an egarch m model with uncertainty factors is employed to examine the direction of causality between tourism expansion and economic growth as well as the impulse impacts of uncertainty on both variables the results indicate that the tourism led economic growth hypothesis is supported for taiwan while a reciprocal causal relationship is found for south korea the significant impacts of uncertainty on growth are also identified

large newsvendor games we consider a game called newsvendor game where several retailers who face a random demand can pool their resources and build a centralized inventory that stocks a single item on their behalf profits have to be allocated in a way that is advantageous to all the retailers a game in characteristic form is obtained by assigning to each coalition its optimal expected profit we consider newsvendor games with possibly an infinite number of newsvendors we prove in great generality results about balancedness of the game and we show that in a game with a continuum of players under a nonatomic condition on the demand the core is a singleton for a particular class of demands we show how the core shrinks to a singleton when the number of players increases

is the tourism economic growth nexus time varying bootstrap rolling window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations this article explores the time varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top 10 tourist destinations in the world namely china france germany italy mexico t

the euro changeover and its effects on price transparency and inflation despite the expectations of economists that the euro changeover would have no effect on prices european consumers perceived the opposite to shed some light on this puzzle we develop a model of imperfect information in which cheaper goods experience higher price growth after the changeover retailers aware of consumers difficulties in adopting the new currency use currency changeovers to increase profits by increasing prices the lower the price transparency after the changeover the higher the euro related inflation using data on inflation eurostat and price levels economist intelligence unit we show that although the euro changeover did not significantly increase inflation it nevertheless had a distortionary effect on prices after the changeover cheaper goods had higher inflation and this effect was stronger in countries in which people found dealing with the new currency problematic

entrepreneurship and the internalization of externalities in an idealized setting for the operation of markets it becomes artificial and redundant to interpret the production trade process itself as involving the internalization of potentially relevant externalities nonetheless it may be useful to think of the ordinary operation of the market in these terms when we want to move beyond the economists idealized construction to settings where externalities defined in the orthodox sense may exist in such settings trade becomes only one among several institutional arrangements for internalizing externalities in this paper we suggest that for the particular types of economic interaction consequent upon the inauguration of entrepreneurial ventures the internalization embodied in a well functioning legal structure may be superior to either trade or overt political arrangements our purpose is to compare alternative means of internalizing potential externalities in terms of the effects on the activity of entrepreneurs and through such activity on the pace of economic development consider the two party example made familiar by r h coase in his now classic paper on social cost at an elementary level of analysis the interaction between the cattle rancher and the wheat farmer is not different from that between any two ordinary traders indeed this point was the fundamental one in coase s argument to the extent that the externality is pareto relevant exchange will tend to take place hence internalizing the effect and guaranteeing an efficient outcome 2 although much of his discussion was posed in terms of liability for damages the implicit model for coase s analysis is one that assumes all property rights

international tourism higher education and economic growth the case of north cyprus this study investigates the long run equilibrium relationship between international tourism higher education growth real income growth and the direction of causality among these variables for the turkish republic of northern cyprus which is not recognised by any country other than turkey results reveal that international tourism and higher education are in a long run equilibrium relationship with real income growth international tourism and higher education have an inelastic yet positively significant impact on real income growth in the long run period finally the results of the present study reveal that both the tourism led growth and the higher education led growth hypotheses are confirmed for north cyprus

cross country differences in the effects of oil shocks abstract we compare the macroeconomic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in the economy the results crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price shift when a rise in oil prices is caused by increased global economic activity or a rise in oil specific demand almost all countries experience respectively a temporary increase and transitory decline of real gdp the role of oil and other forms of energy cannot explain the differences in the effects of both shocks across countries in contrast this role is very important to explain asymmetries in the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks whereas net oil and energy importing countries typically face a permanent fall in economic activity the impact is insignificant or even positive in net energy exporting countries in addition countries that improved their net energy position the most over time became less vulnerable to oil supply shocks relative to other countries

examining carbon emissions economic growth nexus for india a multivariate cointegration approach abstract the study probes cointegration and causality between carbon emissions and economic growth for india using ardl bounds testing approach complemented by johansen juselius maximum likelihood procedure in a multivariate framework by incorporating energy supply investment and employment for time span 1971 2006 the study fails to establish long run equilibrium relationship and long term causality between carbon emissions and economic growth however there exists a bi directional short run causality between the two hence in the short run any effort to reduce carbon emissions could lead to a fall in the national income this study also establishes unidirectional short run causality running from economic growth to energy supply and energy supply to carbon emissions the absence of causality running from energy supply to economic growth implies that in india energy conservation and energy efficiency measures can be implemented to minimize the wastage of energy across value chain such measures would narrow energy demand supply gap absence of long run causality between carbon emissions and economic growth implies that in the long run focus should be given on harnessing energy from clean sources to curb carbon emissions which would not affect the country s economic growth

oil prices tourism income and economic growth a structural var approach for european mediterranean countries abstract in this study a structural var model is employed to investigate the relationship among oil price shocks tourism variables and economic indicators in four european mediterranean countries in contrast with the current tourism literature we distinguish between three oil price shocks namely supply side aggregate demand and oil specific demand shocks overall our results indicate that oil specific demand shocks contemporaneously affect inflation and the tourism sector equity index whereas these shocks do not seem to have any lagged effects by contrast aggregate demand oil price shocks exercise a lagged effect either directly or indirectly to tourism generated income and economic growth the paper does not provide any evidence that supply side shocks trigger any responses from the remaining variables results are important for tourism agents and policy makers should they need to create hedging strategies against future oil price movements or plan for economic policy developments

oligarchic versus democratic societies this paper develops a model to analyze economic performance under different political regimes an oligarchic society where political power is in the hands of major producers protects their property rights but also tends to erect significant entry barriers against new entrepreneurs democracy where political power is more widely diffused imposes redistributive taxes on producers but tends to avoid entry barriers when taxes in democracy are high and the distortions caused by entry barriers are low an oligarchic society achieves greater efficiency because comparative advantage in entrepreneurship shifts away from the incumbents the inefficiency created by entry barriers in oligarchy deteriorates over time the typical pattern is one of rise and decline of oligarchic societies an oligarchic society may first become richer but later fall behind a similar democratic society i also discuss how democracies may be better able to take advantage of new technologies how within elite conflict in oligarchies might cause a transition to democracy and how the unequal distribution of income may keep inefficient oligarchic institutions in place jel p16 o10

international tourism energy consumption and environmental pollution the case of turkey abstract this study investigates the long run equilibrium relationship between tourism energy consumption and environmental degradation as proxied by carbon dioxide co 2 emissions in turkey which attracts more than 30 million tourists per year making it the sixth most visited country in the world the study results reveal that tourism and energy consumption are in a long term equilibrium relationship with co 2 emissions in the tourism induced model co 2 emissions converge to the long term equilibrium path by a 91 01 percent speed of adjustment every year through the channels of tourism energy consumption and aggregate income further the results of the impulse response and variance decompositions reveal that the reaction of energy consumption and therefore co 2 emissions to changes in tourism development is positive and gains strength in the longer periods this implies that tourism development in turkey has resulted not only in considerable increases in energy use but also considerable increases in climate change as demonstrated by the econometric analysis of this study

effects of tourism on regional asymmetries empirical evidence for portugal abstract this study uses a vector autoregressive approach to estimate the regional effects of tourism in portugal with the ultimate objective of assessing tourism s role in reducing regional asymmetries we identify the locations where tourism generates higher effects for each region as well as the regions where tourism generates the strongest effects on the country s economic performance this issue is of particular interest from the side of the country s authorities since tourism is a strategic sector to promote national and regional convergence the study s findings suggest that tourism has contributed to the concentration of economic activity in the largest region of the country and to reduce the gap between the second and the third largest regions some regions benefit more from tourism located in other regions than tourism located in each region and tourism in all regions generate positive effects on the country s economic performance

handbook of game theory with economic applications volume 3 this is the second of three volumes surveying the state of the art in game theory and its applications to many and varied fields in particular to economics the chapters in the present volume are contributed by outstanding authorities and provide comprehensive coverage and precise statements of the main results in each area the applications include empirical evidence the following topics are covered communication and correlated equilibria coalitional games and coalition structures utility and subjective probability common knowledge bargaining zero sum games differential games and applications of game theory to signalling moral hazard search evolutionary biology international relations voting procedures social choice public economics politics and cost allocation this handbook will be of interest to scholars in economics political science psychology mathematics and biology handbook of game theory with economic applications vol i

oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s economists have long been intrigued by empirical evidence that suggests that oil price shocks may be closely related to macroeconomic performance this interest dates back to the 1970s the 1970s were a period of growing dependence on imported oil unprecedented disruptions in the global oil market and poor macroeconomic performance in the united states thus it was natural to suspect a causal relationship from oil prices to u s macroeconomic aggregates since then a large body of work has accumulated that purports to establish this link on theoretical grounds and to provide empirical evidence in its support we do not attempt a comprehensive survey of this literature but rather provide an idiosyncratic synthesis of what we view as the key issues in this debate and the insights gained over the last 30 years the timing seems right for such an account although the experience of the 1970s continues to play an important role in discussions of the link between oil and the macroeconomy there have been a number of new oil price shocks since the 1970s notably the 1986 collapse of oil prices and the 2000 boom in oil prices as well as the oil price increases associated with the 1990 1991 gulf war and the 2003 iraq war given this richer case history we are arguably in a better position than two decades ago to distinguish the idiosyncratic features of each oil crisis from the systematic effects increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions periods of excessive inflation reduced productivity and lower economic growth in this paper we review the arguments supporting such views first we highlight some of the conceptual difficulties in assigning a central role to oil price shocks in explaining

cooperation between multiple news vendors with transshipments we study a situation with n retailers each of them facing a news vendor problem i e selling to customers over a finite period of time product with a short life cycle such as fashion groups of retailers might improve their expected joint profit by coordinating their orders followed by transshipments after demand realization is known we analyze these situations by defining a cooperative game called a general news vendor game for such a situation with n retailers we concentrate on whether it makes sense to cooperate by studying properties of general news vendor games our main result states that general news vendor games have non empty cores

causality between export growth and industrial development empirial evidence from the nics abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between export growth and industrial development in eight newly industrializing countries nics results of sims causality test show that for most of the nics there is a strong bidirectional causality between the growth of exports and industrial development these findings support the export led growth strategy in that expansion in exports not only promote the growth of national income but also lead to structural transformation of the developing countries

investigating causality in international air freight and business travel the case of australia few studies have examined the link between air cargo and business travel despite there being a generally accepted understanding that these two variables are inextricably related to each other thi

is tourism an engine for economic recovery theory and empirical evidence abstract the purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationships between tourism development and economic growth for this purpose the dumitrescu and hurlin 2012 technique was employed to analyze the casual link between tourism development and economic growth in seven european countries the results showed that there is bidirectional causality between growth in tourism receipts and economic growth suggesting that economic growth and tourism development are interdependent and that tourism development stimulates economic growth and vice versa in these countries theoretical and practical implications are discussed within the realms of growth conservation feedback and neutrality hypotheses

implications of a long term increase in oil prices for tourism it is expected that global oil prices will increase in the future assessing the overall economic impacts on tourism is difficult as oil price rises will be concomitant with global changes in other commodity prices exchange rates and incomes a general equilibrium perspective is therefore presented in this paper the model couples a global general equilibrium model with a purpose built cge model of new zealand which focuses on describing tourism supply and demand in some detail the results indicate a decrease in real gross national disposable income of 1 7 for a doubling of oil price and a 9 reduction in the real value of tourism exports as a result of segment specific price increases and differing income and exchange rate effects and elasticities the reduction in demand for tourism in new zealand by 18 segments differs substantially the greatest reduction in demand is observed for tourists from the united kingdom

adverse selection and entrepreneurship in a model of development this paper presents a theory in which talented entrepreneurs are identified as the key agents driving the process of development and modernisation entrepreneurial skills are private information which prevents full risk sharing development into a modern industrial economy might fail to take place since potentially talented entrepreneurs may refrain from taking on the entrepreneurial risks as a way to avoid income shocks an interesting feature of the model is the fact that the informational asymmetries are endogenous to the process of development as they are related to the heterogeneity in entrepreneurial skills required in the manufacturing activities

exogenous oil supply shocks how big are they and how much do they matter for the u s economy abstract the paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks the timing the magnitude and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state of the art estimates it is shown that only a small fraction of the observed oil price increases during oil crisis periods can be attributed to exogenous oil production disruptions exogenous oil supply shocks cause a sharp drop of u s real gdp growth after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growth and a spike in cpi inflation after three quarters overall exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference for the evolution of the u s economy since the 1970s although they did matter for some historical episodes

public attitudes to biofuel use in aviation evidence from an emerging tourist market abstract aviation generates substantial carbon footprint which is projected to increase due to the continuous growth in international tourism especially in emerging markets this carbon footprint should be mitigated to bring the tourism industry towards its sustainability goals within a portfolio of prospective carbon mitigation measures biofuels represent a technological innovation which holds substantial potential to reduce the carbon significance of aviation the success of technological innovations often depends on public opinion the role of public opinion is particularly relevant in the aviation context where safety considerations of technological innovations may determine consumer choice focusing on poland an emerging tourist market in europe this study explored public opinion on biofuel use in aviation it found that public understanding of the perspectives of aviation biofuel technology including its safety is limited and needs to be reinforced public distrust in the national institutions of power and the industry sector representatives in poland calls for educational and public awareness raising campaigns to be delivered by the third sector organisations

examination of taiwan s travel and tourism market cycle through a two period markov regime switching model abstract this study analyzes the taiwan travel and tourism t t market cycle according to data of the weighted taiwan tourism stock index from january 1997 to august 2015 the two period markov regime switching model identifies two distinct regimes of the t t cycle and incorporates a specific set of mean and variance parameters for each period to control for the structural changes in taiwan s t t market the effect of china visitor arrivals to taiwan on the t t market is also verified the empirical findings offer essential information and policy implications for taiwan s government tourism policymakers and business managers

micro economic determinants of tourist expenditure a quantile regression approach abstract we assess the effect of the main determinants of tourist expenditure by applying both linear and quantile regression models to individual micro data collected by a survey addressed to non resident tourists who spent their holidays in sardinia during the period april october 2012 we find that in addition to income and foreign nationality tourist expenditure is crucially driven by trip related party size stay length accommodation sea and sun typology and transport modality and psychographic characteristics repeated visits and holiday motivations moreover our results indicate that the effects vary with respect to the expenditure component and the level of spending thus confirming the high complexity of the tourism product higher positive effects were found for heavy spenders in the case of foreign nationality previous visits and notoriety motivated holidays while party size and the number of visited sites contribute to reducing the level of expenditure for light spending tourists

developing indicators for managing tourism in the face of peak oil abstract in its present form tourism is dependent on the availability of oil and is comparatively oil intensive while forecasts for future tourism growth are optimistic there is also increasing evidence about the imminence of a peak in oil production and the economic effects that this would cause globally and on a destination level it will be necessary to consider how a transition towards fossil fuel free economies might look like for tourism it is therefore timely and prudent for the tourism sector to consider its current oil requirements and derive indicators for monitoring its oil consumption in particular destinations need indicators of the amount of oil consumed by the various markets from which they receive visitors new zealand is used as an example for assessing the oil intensity of its top 10 countries of origin based on the 10 indicators overall the least exposed markets for new zealand with respect to oil are australia china singapore and taiwan although a more detailed analysis would be required for markets that display very heterogeneous travel behaviour among the indicators eco efficiency is particularly important as it allows comparison of resource inputs with economic outputs

tourist arrivals energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy implications for sustainable tourism sustainable tourism management policies should aim at maximising economic benefits from tourist arrivals while minimising associated adverse impacts on the environment this study assesses the short run and long run relationships between tourist arrivals per capita economic output emissions energy consumption and capital formation citing nepal as a specific case study we developed four hypotheses and tested them using time series econometrics based on the autoregressive distributed lag model and granger causality tests the results provide strong evidence of an economy driven tourism sector where expansion in economic output leads to expansion in tourist arrivals more tourist arrivals in turn generate positive impacts on gross capital formation energy consumption negatively affects tourist arrivals calling for increased attention towards improving energy efficiency and energy diversity we conclude that national policies to increase tourist arrivals should be integrated with national energy and environmental policies in order to facilitate the transition towards a sustainable tourism sector

a comparison of the moderating effect of tourism reliance on the economic development for islands and other countries abstract tourism is usually one of the top industries in most countries especially islands however there is some question as to whether there is a negative potential impact if a country relies too much on tourism as a means of economic development to the detriment of other industries such as manufacturing and agriculture the purpose of this paper is to examine the moderating effect of tourism reliance on the relationship between tourism development and economic development for regular countries and island economies including small island developing states sids this study uses quantile regression on panel data from the wdi database from 1995 through 2014 for all of the countries that report tourism and economic data the findings demonstrate that tourism reliance does have a moderating effect on the relationship between tourism development and economic development for all countries but mainly at higher levels of economic development

forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics this study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations tourist arrivals in particular it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in greece the forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country specific thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals given the extent of the dependency of the greek economy on tourism income but also given the perishable nature of the tourist product itself results have important implications for policy makers in greece

do structural oil market shocks affect stock prices abstract this paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes affect stock market returns in a sample of eight countries australia canada france germany italy japan the united kingdom and the united states for each country the analysis proceeds in two steps first modifying the procedure of kilian kilian l forthcoming not all oil price shocks are alike disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market american economic review we employ a vector error correction or vector autoregressive model to decompose oil price changes into three components oil supply shocks global aggregate demand shocks and global oil demand shocks the last component relates to specific idiosyncratic features of the oil market such as changes in the precautionary demand concerning the uncertainty about the availability of future oil supplies second recovering the oil supply shocks global aggregate demand shocks and global oil demand shocks from the first analysis we then employ a vector autoregressive model to determine the effects of these structural shocks on the stock market returns in our sample of eight countries we find that international stock market returns do not respond in a large way to oil market shocks that is the significant effects that exist prove small in magnitude

forecasting international city tourism demand for paris accuracy of uni and multivariate models employing monthly data abstract the purpose of this study is to compare the predictive accuracy of various uni and multivariate models in forecasting international city tourism demand for paris from its five most important foreign source markets germany italy japan uk and us in order to achieve this seven different forecast models are applied ec adlm classical and bayesian var tvp arma and ets as well as the naive 1 model serving as a benchmark the accuracy of the forecast models is evaluated in terms of the rmse and the mae the results indicate that for the us and uk source markets univariate models of arma 1 1 and ets are more accurate but that multivariate models are better predictors for the german and italian source markets in particular bayesian var for the japanese source market the results vary according to the forecast horizon overall the naive 1 benchmark is significantly outperformed across nearly all source markets and forecast horizons

growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development abstractthis study examines 1 whether leisure tourism can contribute to economic growth and 2 if it does whether its growth effects are constant across levels of economic development leisure tourism differs from business tourism in the causal relation with economic growth in addition the natural and heritage related resources for leisure tourism are limited and not reproducible this notion has a significant implication for the relationship between the growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development thus the current study focuses on leisure tourism and controls for the effects of business tourism as an economy grows the growth effects of leisure tourism are expected to diminish due to a lack of continued productivity improvement in the tourism industry the empirical findings in this research reveal that leisure tourism contributes to economic growth at an early stage of economic development but its contribution becomes weaker as the economy develops

tourism demand and economic growth in spain new insights based on the yield curve abstract this study examines for the first time the dynamic relationship between tourism growth and expected macroeconomic conditions of the destination country using a dcc garch model the focus is on the spanish economy in which monthly tourist arrivals data from 1998 to 2017 were collected for five key origin countries and around the world to capture expected macroeconomic conditions the spanish term structure of interest rates is used the results suggest that the tourism expected economic growth relationship is time varying without any country specific differences in the behaviour of the correlations importantly positive correlations reportedly coincides with a regime shift in the spanish economy whereas negative correlations are evident when expected economic conditions are stable it is also shown that the aforementioned relationship is influenced by key geopolitical and economic events the 9 11 terrorist attacks global financial crisis and the ecb s quantitative easing programme finally policy implications derived from the main findings are discussed