sticky prices and monetary policy evidence from disaggregated us data this paper disentangles fluctuations in disaggregated prices due to macroeconomic and sectoral conditions using a factor augmented vector autoregression estimated on a large data set on the basis of this estimation we establish eight facts 1 macroeconomic shocks explain only about 15 of sectoral inflation fluctuations 2 the persistence of sectoral inflation is driven by macroeconomic factors 3 while disaggregated prices respond quickly to sector specific shocks their responses to aggregate shocks are small on impact and larger thereafter 4 most prices respond with a significant delay to identified monetary policy shocks and show little evidence of a price puzzle contrary to existing studies based on traditional vars 5 categories in which consumer prices fall the most following a monetary policy shock tend to be those in which quantities consumed fall the least 6 the observed dispersion in the reaction of producer prices is relatively well explained by the degree of market power 7 prices in sectors with volatile idiosyncratic shocks react rapidly to aggregate monetary policy shocks 8 the sector specific components of prices and quantities move in opposite directions

the impact of microcredit on the poor in bangladesh revisiting the evidence abstractwe replicate and reanalyse the most influential study of microcredit impacts m m pitt s r khandker s the impact of group based credit on poor households in bangladesh does the gender of participants matter published in the journal of political economy 106 1998 that study was celebrated for showing that microcredit reduces poverty a much hoped for possibility though one not confirmed by recent randomised controlled trials we show that the original results on poverty reduction disappear after dropping outliers or when using a robust linear estimator using a new program for estimation of mixed process maximum likelihood models we show how assumptions critical for the original analysis such as error normality are contradicted by the data we conclude that questions about impact cannot be answered in these data

credit constraints and the international propagation of us financial shocks abstract this paper investigates whether credit constraints in the us economy amplify the international propagation of us financial shocks we model the dynamics of the us economy jointly with global macroeconomic and financial variables using a threshold vector autoregression this model captures regime specific dynamics conditional on the severity of credit constraints in the us economy we identify three main episodes of tight credit in us financial history over the past thirty years these occur in the late 1980s in the early 2000s and during the 2007 09 financial crisis we find that us financial shocks are associated with a significant contraction in global economic activity in times of tight credit by contrast there is little impact of us financial shocks on the global economy in normal times this asymmetry highlights an international dimension of the us financial accelerator mechanism

the trans pacific partnership suddenly a game changer this article argues that the entry of canada mexico and most importantly japan has dramatically shifted the prospects and potential impact of the tpp more specifically the article offers four reasons why the entry of canada mexico and japan has transformed the tpp from a potentially failed agreement of limited economic significance and great geopolitical risk to a game changer for the region and beyond the article also recognizes that while the entry of canada mexico and japan has transformed the tpp negotiations their entry comes with some potentially serious risks the article discusses three specific risks the new entrants bring to the negotiations

expanding credit access using randomized supply decisions to estimate the impacts expanding access to commercial credit is a key ingredient of financial development strategies there is less consensus on whether expanding access to consumer credit helps borrowers particularly when loans are extended at high interest rates popular skepticism about unproductive usurious lending is fueled by research highlighting behavioral biases that may induce overborrowing we estimate the impacts of expanding access to consumer credit at a 200 annual percentage rate apr using a field experiment and follow up data collection the randomly assigned marginal loans produced significant net benefits for borrowers across a wide range of outcomes there is also some evidence that the loans were profitable the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

trade production sharing and the international transmission of business cycles countries that are more engaged in production sharing exhibit higher bilateral manufacturing output correlations we use data on trade flows between us multinationals and their affiliates as well as trade between the united states and mexican maquiladoras to measure production sharing trade and its link with the business cycle we then develop a quantitative model of international business cycles that generates a positive link between the extent of vertically integrated production sharing trade and internationally synchronized business cycles a key assumption in the model is a relatively low elasticity of substitution between home and foreign inputs in the production of the vertically integrated good

international aspects of the great depression and the crisis of 2007 similarities differences and lessons we focus on two international aspects of the great depression financial crises and international trade and try to discern lessons for the current economic crisis both downturns featured global banking crises which were generated by boom slump macroeconomic cycles during both crises world trade collapsed faster than world incomes and the trade decline was highly synchronized across countries during the depression income losses and rises in trade barriers explain trade s collapse owing to vertical specialization and more intense trade in durables today s trade collapse is due to uncertainty and small shocks to trade costs hitting international supply chains so far the global economy has avoided the global trade wars and banking collapses of the depression perhaps owing to improved policy even so the global economy remains susceptible to large shocks owing to financial innovation and technological

world business cycles under fixed and flexible exchange rates this paper studies the behavior of monthly industrial production indices during the recent periods of fixed and flexible exchange rate s the central conclusions are as follows industrial production indices are subject to stochastic trend growth the variances of the monthly growth rates are higher in the flexible exchange rate period than in the fixed exchange rate period and are related to the degree of openness and to national income more open economies tend to experience more variability while richer more diversified economies experience less and output movements have been correlated across countries under both exchange rate regimes and there is evidence of a world business cycle copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

what does a financial shock do first international evidence in this paper we attempt to evaluate the quantitative impact of financial shocks on key indicators of real activity and financial conditions we focus on financial shocks as they have received wide attention in the recent literature and in the policy debate after the global financial crisis we estimate a panel var for 21 advanced economies based on quarterly data between 1985 and 2011 where financial shocks are identified through sign restrictions we find robust evidence that financial shocks can be separately identified from other shock types and that they exert a significant influence on key macroeconomic variables such as gdp and particularly investment but it is unclear whether these shocks are demand or supply shocks from the standpoint of their macroeconomic impact the financial development and structure of a given country is found not to matter much for the intensity of the propagation of financial shocks moreover we generally find that these shocks play a role not only in crisis times but also in normal conditions finally we discuss the implications of our findings for monetary policy fabio fornari and livio stracca

how do us credit supply shocks propagate internationally a gvar approach abstract we study how us credit supply shocks are transmitted to other economies we use the recently developed gvar approach to model financial variables jointly with macroeconomic variables in 33 countries for the period 1983 2009 we experiment with inter country links based on bilateral trade portfolio investment foreign direct investment and banking exposures capturing both bilateral trade and financial exposures in a gvar fits the data better than using trade weights only we use sign restrictions on the short run impulse responses in the us model to identify the credit supply shocks we find that negative credit supply shocks have strong negative effects on us and foreign gdp credit and equity markets in several countries respond clearly to the shocks exchange rate responses are consistent with a flight to quality to the us dollar the credit supply shocks explain about a fifth of one year ahead output forecast error variance in the us and about a tenth in the euro area and the uk but considerably less elsewhere

production fragmentation and business cycle comovement abstract international trade increasingly involves trade in goods being produced in fragmentation arrangements across countries with each country specializing in different stages of a production sequence this paper examines empirically whether pairs of countries with more bilateral production fragmentation arrangements tend to have more correlated business cycles using cross country data from 30 countries we find that bilateral production fragmentation has a positive effect while the standard bilateral trade intensity indicator has a negative impact on business cycle comovement we also find that the positive effect of trade in complements captured by bilateral production fragmentation dominates the negative effect of trade in substitutes explained by bilateral trade intensity resulting in an overall positive impact of trade hence bilateral production fragmentation plays a key role underlying the positive response of business cycle comovement to increases in trade

re evaluating microfinance evidence from propensity score matching this paper evaluates effectiveness of microfinance using propensity score matching psm method applied to data collected in a recent randomized control trial this method allows one to answer an additional set of questions not answered by the original study and provide more nuanced evidence by comparing microfinance institution mfi borrowers to those without any loans and those with prior loans from other sources it is argued that this unique setting with two comparison groups allows us to shed light on the unobservable entrepreneurial spirit bias and provides upper and lower bounds on the true microfinance impact the results suggest that microfinance can make a modest difference for some households in several expenditure categories

the transmission of international shocks to the uk estimates based on a time varying factor augmented var the aim of this paper is to gauge the importance of foreign demand supply and interest rate shocks on the uk economy and assess how their role has changed over time to that end we devise a time varying factor augmented var model that captures the relationship between 17 industrialised countries and the uk and accounts for any temporal evolution in this relationship the response of uk macroeconomic variables to a foreign interest rate shock is estimated to have changed significantly since the early 1990s international demand shocks play an important role in driving world and uk real activity especially during the recent recession

the transmission of international shocks a factor augmented var approach the empirical literature on the transmission of international shocks is based on small scale vars in this paper we use a large panel of data for 17 industrialized countries to investigate the international transmission mechanism and revisit the anomalies that arise in the empirical literature we propose a factor augmented var favar that extends the model in bernanke boivin and eliasz 2003 to the open economy the main results can be summarized as follows first the dynamic effects on the uk economy of an unanticipated fall of short term interest rates in the rest of the world are real house price inflation investment gdp and consumption growth peak after one year wages peak after two years cpi and gdp deflator inflation peak during the third year second a positive international supply shock makes the distribution of the components of the uk consumption deflator negatively skewed third in response to a domestic monetary shock we find no evidence of the exchange rate and liquidity puzzles and little evidence of the forward discount and price anomalies

estimating the benefit incidence of an antipoverty program by propensity score matching this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled estimating the benefit incidence of an antipoverty program by propensity score matching conducted between 1997 and 1998 in argentina the study observed that the average direct gain to the participant is found to be about half the gross wage over half of the beneficiaries are in the poorest decile nationally and 80 percent are in the poorest quintile the propensity score matching psm estimator is reasonably robust to a number of changes in methodology participants are more likely to be poor than non participants participants are less well educated live in poorer neighborhoods and are more likely to be members of neighborhood associations and political parties average gains are similar between men and women but are higher for younger workers funding for the study derives from the world bank research committee

transportation costs and international trade in the second era of globalization while the precise causes of postwar trade growth are not well understood declines in transport costs top the lists of usual suspects however there is remarkably little systematic evidence documenting the decline this paper brings to bear an eclectic mix of data in order to provide a detailed accounting of the time series pattern of shipping costs the ad valorem impact of ocean shipping costs is not much lower today than in the 1950s with technological advances largely trumped by adverse cost shocks in contrast air shipping costs have dropped an order of magnitude and airborne trade has grown rapidly as a result as a result international trade has also experienced a significant rise in speed

financial networks and contagion we study cascades of failures in a network of interdependent financial organizations how discontinuous changes in asset values e g defaults and shutdowns trigger further failures and how this depends on network structure integration greater dependence on counterparties and diversification more counterparties per organization have different nonmonotonic effects on the extent of cascades diversification connects the network initially permitting cascades to travel but as it increases further organizations are better insured against one another s failures integration also faces trade offs increased dependence on other organizations versus less sensitivity to own investments finally we illustrate the model with data on european debt cross holdings jel d85 f15 f34 f36 f65 g15 g32 g33 g38 globalization brings with it increased financial interdependencies among many kinds of organizations governments central banks investment banks firms etc that hold each other s shares debts and other obligations such interdependencies can lead to cascading defaults and failures which are often avoided through massive bailouts of institutions deemed too big to fail recent examples include the us government s interventions in aig fannie mae freddie mac and general motors and the european commission s interventions in greece and spain although such bailouts circumvent the widespread failures that were more prevalent in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries they emphasize the need to study the risks created by a network of interdependencies understanding these risks is crucial to designing incentives and regulatory responses which defuse cascades before they are imminent in this paper we develop a general model that produces new insights regarding financial contagions and cascades of failures among organizations linked through a network of financial interdependencies organizations values depend on each other e g through cross holdings of shares debt or other liabilities if an

are there lasting impacts of aid to poor areas abstract the paper re visits the site of a large world bank financed rural development program in china 10 years after it began and four years after disbursements ended the program emphasized community participation in multi sectoral interventions including farming animal husbandry infrastructure and social services data were collected on 2000 households in project and non project areas spanning 10 years a double difference estimator of the program s impact on top of pre existing governmental programs reveals sizeable short term income gains that were mostly saved only small and statistically insignificant gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer term though in rough accord with the average gain to permanent income the use of community based beneficiary selection greatly reduced the overall impact given that the educated poor were under covered the main results are robust to corrections for various sources of selection bias including village targeting and interference due to spillover effects generated by the response of local governments to the external aid

is the international propagation of financial shocks non linear evidence from the erm abstract this paper tests for the presence of non linearities in the propagation of devaluation expectations among the countries that were members of the exchange rate mechanism of the ems we show that whenever it is possible to estimate a model for financial interdependence a full information technique to detect such non linearities is more efficient than the limited information estimator proposed in a similar context by rigobon 2000 this happens in particular when the periods of market turbulence are relatively short our evidence suggests that non linearities in the propagation of devaluation expectations were a general phenomenon in the erm normally the non linearity amounts to a stronger effect in the same direction but sometimes as in the dutch case it implies a significant effect in the opposite direction evidence of flight to quality

the transmission mechanism in a changing world this paper aims at improving the understanding of the transmission of shocks across countries and how this transmission may have changed over time by employing a model that allows for parameter changes across regimes we show that transmission of shocks from the us to european countries may depend on the values of transition variables such as financial prices exchange rates international capital flows trade links and monetary policy instruments we also show that transmission mechanisms estimated with the proposed models have good performance in describing the 2001 downturn in some european countries as an effect of a us shock more generally the models have a good forecasting performance over short horizons

cross country evidence on the link between volatility and growth this paper presents empirical evidence against the standard dichotomy in macroeconomics that separates growth from the volatility of economic fluctuations in a sample of ninety two countries as well as a sample of oecd countries the authors find that countries with higher volatility have lower growth the addition of standard control variables strengthens the negative relationship the authors also find that government spending induced volatility is negatively associated with growth even after controlling for both time and country fixed effects copyright 1995 by american economic association

how much a symmetry in europe evidence from industrial sectors abstract to what extent do european countries differ with respect to the sources of cyclical fluctuations of industrial output we look at output data disaggregated by industry for 11 european countries and on the basis of a cointegrated vector autoregression model we examine the correlation of output innovations at the industry and country levels we also discuss to what extent output innovations can be considered symmetric or asymmetric our results point to the fact that on average more variance of output innovations is explained at the country rather than the industry level we also find that the importance of asymmetric disturbances is quite varied among the 11 countries and we identify a core of countries with a higher degree of symmetry

unravelling financial market linkages during crises an empirical model of multiple asset classes across countries is formulated in a latent factor framework a special feature of the model is that financial market linkages during periods of financial crises including spillover and contagion effects are formally specified the model also captures a range of common factors including global shocks country and market shocks and idiosyncratic shocks the framework is applied to modelling linkages between currency and equity markets during the east asian financial crisis of 1997 98 the results provide strong evidence that cross market links are important spillovers have a relatively larger effect on volatility than contagion but both are statistically significant

fiscal policy in good and bad times in this paper we analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy differs across the business cycle to tackle this question we use a regime switching error correction framework where nonlinearities are only modeled in the short run and have no impact on the long run equilibrium regime specific shocks to government revenue and government purchases are identified using sign restrictions linear combinations of the impulse responses of these basic shocks are used to construct a deficit spending shock and a deficit financed tax cut shock we find that active spending policies have a stronger impact in recession with multipliers exceeding unity and should be preferred to deficit financed tax cuts

a macroeconomic model with a financial sector this paper studies a macroeconomic model in which financial experts borrow from less productive agents we pursue four sets of results i the economy is prone to instability and occasionally enters volatile episodes as volatility spikes agents precautionary motive increases depressing prices even further log linear approximations fail to capture these non linear effects that can cause economies to be significantly depressed for long periods of time ii endogenous risk during volatile episodes increases asset price correlations iii financial experts impose a negative externality on each other and on the labor sector by not maintaining adequate capital cushion and funding structure iv while risk sharing within the financial sector through securitization and derivatives contracts reduces many inefficiencies it can also amlify systemic risks

trade and the geographic spread of the great recession abstract i study the role of trade between u s states in the regional propagation of local consumer demand shocks during the great recession to identify the trade channel empirically i make use of heterogeneity in the direction of trade flows across industries in the same state industries that depended relatively more on final demand from states with housing boom bust cycles grew by more before the crisis and declined faster from 2007 to 09 a one standard deviation difference in the exposure to demand shocks during the recession explains a 2 9 percentage point difference in employment growth

fragmentation incomes and jobs an analysis of european competitiveness increasing fragmentation of production across borders is changing the nature of international competition as a result conventional indicators of competitiveness based on gross exports are becoming less informative and new measures are needed this paper proposes an ex post accounting framework of the value added and workers that are directly and indirectly related to the production of final manufacturing goods the framework focuses on manufactures global value chain income and manufactures global value chain jobs the paper outlines these concepts and provides trends in european countries based on a recent multi sector input output model of the world economy the analysis finds that since 1995 revealed comparative advantage of the european union 27 is shifting to activities related to the production of nonelectrical machinery and transport equipment the workers involved in manufactures global value chains are increasingly in services rather than manufacturing industries the analysis also finds a strong shift toward activities carried out by high skilled workers highlighting the uneven distributional effects of fragmentation the results show that a global value chain perspective is needed to inform the policy debates on competitiveness

financial contagion and asset pricing abstract asset market interconnectedness can give rise to significant contagion risks during periods of financial crises that extend beyond the risks associated with changes in volatilities and correlations these channels include the transmission of shocks operating through changes in the higher order comoments of asset returns including changes in coskewness arising from changes in the interaction between volatility and average returns across asset markets these additional contagion channels have nontrivial implications for the pricing of options through changes in the payoff probability structure and more generally in the management of financial risks the effects of incorrectly pricing risk has proved to be significant during many financial crises including the subprime crisis from mid 2007 to mid 2008 the great recession beginning 2008 and the european debt crisis from 2010 using an exchange options model the effects of changes in the comoments of asset returns across asset markets are investigated with special emphasis given to understanding the effects on hedging risk during financial crises the results reveal that by not correctly pricing the risks arising from higher order moments during financial crises there is significant mispricing of options while hedged portfolios during noncrisis periods become exposed to price movements in times of crises

trade and business cycle synchronization in oecd countries a re examination this paper re examines the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for 21 oecd countries in the period 1970 2003 instead of using instrumental variables we estimate a multivariate model including variables capturing specialization and similarity of economic policies we confirm that trade intensity affects synchronization but the effect is much smaller than previously reported other factors like specialization and convergence in monetary and fiscal policies have a similar impact on business cycle synchronization as trade intensity the effect of trade on synchronization is not driven by outliers however the impact of trade on synchronization is not robust across deciles c 2007 elsevier b v all rights reserved

market power in banking countercyclical margins and the international transmission of business cycles abstract by introducing an imperfectly competitive banking sector into a standard two country two good rbc model with complete asset markets we study the international transmission of aggregate tfp shocks in an environment with noncompetitive financial intermediation in this model price cost margins in a global loan market are endogenous and countercyclical as a result a positive tfp shock in one country spills over to another through a reduction in the global cost of both credit and externally financed investment the quantitative analysis shows that countercyclical margins on loans play a key role in bringing the predictions of the theory closer to the observed cross country cyclical co movements of consumption employment investment and output recessions are deeper when the cost of credit rises during these economic downturns thus a financial accelerator arises in our framework unveiling the increased importance of stabilization policies in economies where margins in credit markets are countercyclical

determinants of business cycle comovement a robust analysis abstract this paper investigates the determinants of business cycle comovement between countries our dataset includes over 100 countries both developed and developing we search for variables that are robust in explaining comovement using the approach of leamer amer econom rev 73 1983 31 variables considered are i bilateral trade between countries ii total trade in each country iii sectoral structure iv similarity in export and import baskets v factor endowments and vi gravity variables we find that bilateral trade is robust however two variables that the literature has argued are important for business cycles industrial structure and currency unions are found not to be robust

the real impact of improved access to finance evidence from mexico this paper provides new evidence on the impact of access to finance on poverty it highlights an important channel through which access affects poverty the labor market the paper exploits the opening of banco azteca in mexico a unique natural experiment in which over 800 bank branches opened almost simultaneously in preexisting elektra stores importantly the bank has focused on previously underserved low income clients our key finding is a sizeable effect of access to finance on labor market activity and income levels especially among low income individuals and those located in areas with lower preexisting bank penetration

trade openness and volatility abstract this paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry level panel data set of manufacturing production and trade the main results are threefold first sectors more open to international trade are more volatile second trade is accompanied by increased specialization these two forces imply increased aggregate volatility third sectors that are more open to trade are less correlated with the rest of the economy an effect that acts to reduce overall volatility the point estimates indicate that each of the three effects has an appreciable impact on aggregate volatility added together they imply that the relationship between trade openness and overall volatility is positive and economically significant

the changing international transmission of financial shocks evidence from a classical time varying favar we study the changing international transmission of financial shocks over the period 1971 2012 global financial shocks are measured as unexpected changes of a u s financial conditions index fci developed by hatzius et al 2010 we model the fci jointly with a large international data set through a time varying parameter factor augmented var and find that financial shocks have a considerable impact on growth in the nine countries considered moreover financial shocks during the global financial crisis are found to be large by historical standards they explain approximately 20 of gdp growth variation on average over 2008 9 compared to an average of 5 prior to the crisis

the great synchronization of international trade collapse in this paper we examine the extent of international trade synchronization during periods of international trade collapses and us recessions based on monthly data for the g7 economies over the period 1961 2011 our results suggest rather idiosyncratic patterns of international trade synchronization during international trade collapses and us recessions during the great recession of 2007 2009 however international trade experienced the most sudden severe and globally synchronized collapse

business cycle correlations in asia pacific abstract in this paper business cycle correlations between countries in the asia pacific region are examined trade intensity and a number of other macroeconomic and structural variables are used to try and explain synchronisation the findings suggest that trade does not explain correlations in the asia pacific region

the great recession us dynamics and spillovers to the world economy abstract this paper provides an empirical investigation of both the within us and international channels of transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks by means of a 50 country macroeconometric model estimated over the 1980 2009 period including measures of excess liquidity and financial fragility specifically designed in order to evaluate the relevance of the boom bust credit cycle view put forward as an interpretation of the recent great recession episode we find that such a view is consistent with the empirical evidence moreover concerning the real effects of financial shocks within the us we detect stronger evidence of an asset prices channel rather than a liquidity channel concerning the spillovers to the world economy we find that while financial disturbances are transmitted to foreign countries through us house and stock price dynamics as well as excess liquidity creation the trade channel is the key trasmission mechanism of real shocks

structural break threshold vars for predicting us recessions using the spread this paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non linearity and a structural break when the spread between long and short term interest rates is the leading indicator estimation and model selection procedures allow us to estimate and identify time varying non linearity in a var the structural break threshold var sbtvar predicts better the timing of recessions than models with constant threshold or with only a break using real time data the sbtvar with spread as leading indicator is able to anticipate correctly the timing of the 2001 recession

composition of energy outflows embodied in the gross exports of the construction sector abstract energy sustainability has great importance in the development of the economy and society since energy is a necessary driving force for economic growth the construction sector accounts for a greater percentage of global energy consumption than most other sectors the structure of exports in the current trade pattern has affected the transmission of sectoral embodied energy through changes in regional economies this paper uncovers the composition of productions for gross exports and examines embodied energy from the viewpoint of value added through a case study in the construction sector multi regional input output tables have been used to process the data relevant to economic trade and energy input while the production of gross exports in 40 countries has been decomposed into the exports of value added trade and the exports of vertical specialisation trade based on data from world input output tables the decomposition and reorganisation clearly show the pathways and composition in the trade activities of gross exports the embodied energy of value added exports accounted for 60 90 of gross exports in the construction sectors of 37 countries the framework for sharing production in the construction sector still dominated the connections among many countries especially the trade relationships between large economies in the process of vertical specialisation trade the foreign value added of the construction sector was still limited by significant events such as the global financial crisis the construction sectors were ranked between 5 and 11 in all 35 domestic sectors in 34 countries as measured by the total export of embodied energy so the creation of high value added is enhanced by improvement in energy efficiency in the construction sector however the reduction of energy consumption in the construction sector may indirectly increase energy consumption in its upstream sectors because of the connection between exports and related production the balance between energy consumption and creation of value added in exports is an important consideration for government supervision and sectoral development local construction markets need to strengthen their ability in the supply of intermediate goods which benefits value added exports and domestic demand moreover developing national and international supply chains can positively offset the impact of the imbalanced distribution of globalised production

vertical linkages and the collapse of global trade a common view is that cross border vertical linkages played a key role in the 2008 2009 collapse of global trade this paper presents two accounting results from a global input output framework that shed light on this channel we feed in observed changes in final demand and find that trade in final goods fell by twice as much as trade in intermediate goods nevertheless intermediate goods account for more than two fifths of the trade collapse we also find that vertical specialization trade fell 13 percent while value added trade fell by 10 percent because declines in demand were largest in highly vertically specialized sectors

sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities what are the gains from trade title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments caaa established a market for transferable sulfur dioxide so2 emission allowances among electric utilities this market offers firms facing high marginal abatement costs the opportunity to purchase the right to emit so2 from firms with lower costs and this is expected to yield cost savings compared to a command and control approach to environmental regulation this paper uses econometrically estimated marginal abatement cost functions for power plants affected by title iv of the caaa to evaluate the performance of the so2 allowance market specifically we investigate whether the much heralded fall in the cost of abating so2 compared to original estimates can be attributed to allowance trading we demonstrate that for plants that use low sulfur coal to reduce so2 emissions technical change and the fall in prices of low sulfur coal have lowered marginal abatement cost curves by over 50 percent since 1985 the flexibility to take advantage of these chan

trade finance specialization and synchronization i investigate the determinants of business cycle synchronization across regions the linkages between trade in goods financial openness specialization and business cycle synchronization are evaluated in the context of a system of simultaneous equations the main results are as follows i specialization patterns have a sizable effect on business cycles most of this effect is independent of trade or financial policy but directly reflects differences in gdp per capita ii a variety of measures of financial integration suggest that economic regions with strong financial links are significantly more synchronized even though they also tend to be more specialized iii the estimated role of trade is closer to that implied by existing models once intra industry trade is held constant the results obtain in a variety of data sets measurement strategies and specifications they relate to a recent strand of international business cycle models with incomplete markets and transport costs and on the empir

microfinance and poverty evidence using panel data from bangladesh micro finance supports mainly informal activities that often have low market demand it may be thus hypothesized that the aggregate poverty impact of micro finance in an economy with low economic growth is modest or nonexistent the observed borrower level poverty impact is then a result of income redistribution or short run income generation the author addresses these questions using household level panel data from bangladesh the findings confirm that micro finance benefits the poorest and has sustained impact in reducing poverty among program participants it also has positive spillover impact reducing poverty at the village level but the effect is more pronounced in reducing extreme rather than moderate poverty

the economics of roscas and intrahousehold resource allocation this paper investigates individual motives to participate in rotating savings and credit associations roscas detailed evidence from roscas in a kenyan slum nairobi suggests that most roscas are predominantly composed of women particularly those living in a couple and earning an independent income to explain this phenomenon we propose an argument based on conflictual interactions within the household participation in a rosca is a strategy a wife employs to protect her savings against claims by her husband for immediate consumption the empirical implications of the model are then tested using the data collected in kenya

value added content of trade a comprehensive approach abstract this letter provides an approach to decompose the value added content of trade into foreign and domestic components when intermediates are traded the measure adds to the existing literature by considering both exports and imports simultaneously in this way this approach generalizes the commonly applied vertical specialization measures based on exports only which are encompassed

state regulation of takeovers and shareholder wealth the case of new york s 1985 takeover statutes past studies of takeover regulations have found that such rules increase the premiums paid to the shareholders of successfully acquired targets jarrell and bradley argue that these higher premiums harm shareholders by discouraging takeover activity and protecting inefficient managers bebchuk argues that the higher premiums do not significantly reduce the number of takeovers so that shareholders benefit on average from the higher premiums paid in successful acquisitions this article uses the event study method to measure the net effect of two takeover statutes passed by the new york state legislature in 1985 the results support the conclusion of jarrell and bradley that despite the higher premiums paid to successfully acquired target shareholders ex post these laws on average harm shareholders ex ante

a real model of the world business cycle abstract in this paper a stochastic two country log linear infinite horizon model is used to analyze the generation and transmission of economic fluctuations across countries it is argued that following a country specific supply disturbance production interdependence and unitary elasticities in consumption and production are sufficient to generate comovements in aggregate economic activity investment and trade that are persistent over time and positively correlated across countries however the empirical analysis carried out for the usa japan germany and uk for the 1960 82 period suggests that common shocks rather than trade links are responsible for this pattern of comovements

complementarities and comovements short run interindustry comovement may be due either to common shocks or to complementarities that progagate shocks across sectors this paper assesses the importance of input output linkages aggregate activity spillovers and local activity spillovers to comovement in postwar u s manufacturing i find that input output linkages and local activity spillovers are important to comovement while aggregate activity spillovers are not important i find that complementarities are important to aggregate volatility even after i remove observable aggregate shocks from the data local spillovers are particularly important explaining between 15 and 36 percent of manufacturing employment volatility the importance of local spillovers stems from the fact that industries that cluster together in space also comove through time contrary to the marshallian idea that industries with negatively correlated fluctuations should cluster together in order to stabilize local demand

institutional and legal context in natural experiments the case of state antitakeover laws we argue and demonstrate empirically that a firm s institutional and legal context has first order effects in tests that use state antitakeover laws for identification a priori the size and direction of a law s effect on a firm s takeover protection depends on i other state antitakeover laws ii preexisting firm level takeover defenses and iii the legal regime as reflected by important court decisions in addition iv state antitakeover laws are not exogenous for many easily identifiable firms we show that the inferences from nine prior studies related to nine different outcome variables change substantially when we include controls for these considerations

credit and economic activity credit regimes and nonlinear propagation of shocks in this paper we examine empirically whether credit plays a role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks this propagation takes the form of a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold using nonlinear impulseresponse functions we evaluate the dynamics implied by the threshold model these suggest that shocks have a larger effect on output in the tight credit regime than is normally the case and that contractionary monetary shocks typically have a larger effect than expansionary shocks finally using a nonlinear version of historical decompositions we attempt to determine the relative contribution to output growth of shocks and the nonlinear structure

accounting for the differences between gross and value added trade balances one of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms however the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between the two measures have so far not been investigated here we propose a novel decomposition of bilateral gross trade balances that accounts for the differences between gross and value added concepts the bilateral analysis contributes conceptually to the literature on double counting in trade by identifying the trade flow in which value added is actually recorded for the first time in international trade statistics we apply our decomposition framework to the development of intra eu 27 trade balances from 1995 to 2011 and show that a growing share of intra eu bilateral trade balances is due to demand in countries other than the two direct trading partners the latter accounted for 25 per cent of the total variance of intra eu gross bilateral trade balances in 2011 which marks a considerable rise from 3 per cent in 1995

liquidity management of u s global banks internal capital markets in the great recession abstract the recent crisis highlighted the importance of globally active banks in linking markets one channel for this linkage is through how these banks manage liquidity across their entire banking organization we document that funds regularly flow between parent banks and their affiliates in diverse foreign markets we show that parent banks when hit by a funding shock reallocate liquidity in the organization according to a locational pecking order affiliate locations that are important for the parent bank revenue streams are relatively protected from liquidity reallocations in the organization while traditional funding locations are more extensively used to buffer shocks to the parent bank balance sheets

detecting contagion in a multivariate time series system an application to sovereign bond markets in europe this paper proposes an original three part sequential testing procedure stp with which to test for contagion using a multivariate model first conditional on breaks in the conditional mean the procedure identifies distinct structural breaks in the volatility of a given set of countries a further structural break test applied to the correlation matrix identifies and then dates the potential contagion mechanisms as a third element the stp tests for the distinctiveness of the break dates previously found as a result of using multi dimensional data the stp has high testing power and is able to locate the dates of contagion more precisely the application to european long term interest rates shows that immediate contagion from greece does not take place but the dynamic spillovers are shown to increase after controlling for breaks in the different model parameters for other countries we find evidence of both contagion and flight to quality mechanisms

an historical decomposition of the great depression to determine the role of money abstract the innovation accounting technique of historical decomposition seems ideally suited as a vehicle for a re examination of money s role during the depression its application using u s monthly data for 1919 to 1941 reveals that innovations in money exerted a considerable influence on prices and output after october 1929 although the depth of the depression and the extent of the subsequent recovery cannot be attributed solely to monetary factors an important albeit occasionally diminished monetary effect is also identified even when a passive contemporaneous response by money to price and output fluctuations is assumed not to contribute to the effect

stages of diversification this paper studies the evolution of sectoral concentration in relation to the level of per capita income we show that various measures of sectoral concentration follow a u shaped pattern across a wide variety of data sources countries first diversify in the sense that economic activity is spread more equally across sectors but there exists relatively late in the development process a point at which they start specializing again we discuss this finding in light of existing theories of trade and growth which generally predict a monotonic relationship between income and diversification

sectoral price data and models of price setting in the median sector 100 percent of the long run response of the sectoral price index to a sector specific shock occurs in the month of the shock the standard calvo model and the standard sticky information model can match this finding only under extreme assumptions concerning the profit maximizing price the rational inattention model of mackowiak and wiederholt 2009a optimal sticky prices under rational inattention american economic review 99 769 803 can match this finding without an extreme assumption concerning the profit maximizing price furthermore there is little variation across sectors in the speed of response of sectoral price indexes to sector specific shocks the rational inattention model matches this finding while the calvo model predicts too much cross sectional variation

evaluating international financial integration under leverage constraints abstract the global financial crisis has undermined many economists views about the benefits of open financial markets anecdotal evidence seems to indicate that financial linkages may propagate shocks during crises this paper develops a simple two country model in which financial liberalisation across countries takes place in the presence of credit market distortions within countries countries may be subject to macro risk coming from productivity shocks and direct shocks to the credit system financial shocks three different degrees of financial linkages between countries are examined it is shown that the type of financial integration is critical for both macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in particular financial integration in bond markets alone may increase aggregate consumption volatility and reduce welfare financial integration in both bond and equity markets generates high positive co movement across countries but is welfare improving

do all sectoral shocks lead to aggregate volatility empirics from a production network perspective abstract productive diversification has long been acknowledged as a volatility reducing strategy yet recent theoretical contributions have shown that in strongly diversified economies idiosyncratic shocks could translate into aggregate volatility via the network of inter industry linkages by exploiting exogenous cross country sector variations in demand shocks during the 2008 great recession we provide empirical evidence that the network properties of a sector affected by an individual shock determine its propensity to transmit volatility to the rest of the economy more precisely shocks to sectors that are located in denser parts of a production network fade out over a large number of alternative paths of propagation due to substitution effects whereas shocks to sectors that are more influential within the network generate aggregate fluctuations through contagion effects we also find that the impact of sectoral shocks on aggregate volatility 1 is not conditional on sector level differences in trade intensity and 2 is larger for developing countries because they tend to have more isolated influential sectors and larger structural holes in their production network our results thus help consolidate the two opposite views in the literature on the impact of productive diversification on aggregate volatility

various concepts of hysteresis applied in economics different types of hysteresis are applied in order to describe persistence phenomena in micro and macroeconomics on the microeconomic level sunk adjustment costs generate genuine hysteresis where temporary exogenous shocks lead to switches between different branches of an entire input output relation i e multibranch non linearity the shape of the hysteresis loop changes when an adequate aggregation towards a macroeconomic relation is conducted over heterogeneous micro elements hysteresis relations are based on a local structural instability in the case of a branch to branch transition however the persistence characteristics of first order difference differential equations with unit zero roots which are based on a global indifference instability are in economics commonly labelled as hysteresis as well jel classification c62

networks of value added trade global value chains gvcs require new methods for evaluating interconnections among countries which can no longer be accurately appraised by standard bilateral gross trade flows this paper uses tools of network analysis to examine the evolution of value added trade from 1995 to 2011 gvcs are very centralised and asymmetric networks with a few large economies acting as hubs which exposes them to the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks as gvcs expanded the networks of foreign value added in exports became denser more complex and intensively connected the regional dimension of gvcs is still dominant but is progressively giving place to a more global network networks of foreign value added in goods exports outpace those of services exports however foreign inputs of services are important for exports of both goods and services there is a striking rise of china as a supplier of value added while germany and the united states maintain a central role in gvcs over the whole period

similarities and convergence in g 7 cycles this paper examines the properties of g 7 cycles using a multicountry bayesian panel var model with time variations unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences we demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role we detect di erences across business cycle phases but apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s find little evidence of major structural changes we also find no evidence of the existence of an euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s

the financial crisis and the geography of wealth transfers abstract this paper studies the geography of wealth transfers between 2007q4 and 2008q4 at the height of the global financial crisis we construct valuation changes on bilateral external positions in equity direct investment and portfolio debt to measure who benefited and who lost on their external exposure we find a very diverse set of fortunes governed by the structure of countries external portfolios in particular we are able to relate the gains and losses on debt portfolios to the country s exposure to abs abcp conduits and the extent of dollar shortage

business cycles with staggered prices and international trade in intermediate inputs abstract international trade in intermediate inputs and increasingly in goods produced at multiple stages of processing has been widely studied in the real trade literature we assess the role of this feature of modern world trade in accounting for some stylized facts about international business cycles our model with staggered prices and trade in intermediates across four stages of processing does well in explaining the observed international correlations in aggregate quantities and it performs much better than a single stage model with no trade in intermediates the model in itself does not provide a full account of the cyclical behavior of the real exchange rate but compared to the single stage model it moves in the right direction

china and the trans pacific partnership a numerical simulation assessment of the effects involved the trans pacific partnership tpp is a new negotiation on cross border liberalisation of goods and service flows going beyond wto disciplines and focused on issues such as regulation and border controls this paper uses numerical simulation methods to assess the potential effects of a tpp agreement on china and also china s inclusion or exclusion on other countries we use a numerical 11 country global general equilibrium model with trade costs and inside money trade costs are calculated using a method based on gravity equations tpp barriers potentially removable are trade costs less tariffs simulation results reveal that china will be slightly hurt by tpp initiatives in welfare when china is out but the total production and export will be increased other non tpp countries will be mostly hurt in welfare but member countries will mostly gain if china takes part in tpp she will significantly gain and increase other tpp countries gain as well the comparison of tpp effects and global free trade effects show that the positive effects of global free trade are stronger than tpp effects japan s joining tpp would be beneficial to both herself and most of other tpp countries but which negative effects on china s welfare when out of tpp will increase further

on the dynamic effects of oil price shocks a study using industry level data abstract this paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on demand and supply in various industries the impulse responses of identified var models indicate that for industries that have a large cost share of oil such as petroleum refinery and industrial chemicals oil price shocks mainly reduce supply in contrast for many other industries with the automobile industry being a particularly important example oil price shocks mainly reduce demand the paper suggests that oil price shocks influence economic activities beyond that explained by direct input cost effects possibly by delaying purchasing decisions of durable goods

who produces for whom in the world economy la part du commerce en produits intermediaires dans le commerce international appele aussi commerce vertical n a cesse d augmenter depuis vingt ans cet article propose une nouvelle mesure du commerce international le commerce en valeur ajoutee qui re alloue les flux commerciaux aux pays et aux secteurs produisant les intrants en 2004 le commerce vertical represente 27 du commerce total les repartitions geographique et sectorielle du commerce en valeur ajoutee sont tres differentes de celles du commerce standard la difference entre le commerce en valeur ajoutee et le commerce standard est plus importante dans le cas du commerce regional mais ce n est pas plus le cas en asie qu en amerique

democracy diversification and growth reversals there exists convincing evidence that democratic countries are less volatile this conclusion is usually reached with respect to volatility as measured by the standard deviation of annual growth rates of per capita gdp which includes both low and high frequency fluctuations however recently several studies have documented that significant changes in trend growth such as growth accelerations that last a decade or similar periods of negative growth are quite common in this paper we ask whether democracy also has a stabilizing effect on trend volatility i e whether more democratic countries experience fewer and milder swings of trend growth we find a common phenomenon medium term reversals of growth that is periods of exceptionally high growth are on average followed by periods of exceptionally low growth and vice versa the propensity to experience large swings of trend growth is not uniform across countries less democratic countries are more susceptible to it when compared with factors commonly associated with volatility such as measures of quality of institutions macroeconomic policies and financial development we find that democracy is the most robust predictor of a country s propensity for growth reversals we construct a model in which non democracies have high barriers of entry for new firms this leads to less sectoral diversification fewer sectors are operated but more resources are channeled to each in an uncertain environment this leads to infrequent but large growth accelerations when one of the few sectors operated is successful however these accelerations are followed by large declines when fortunes change in favor of the missing sectors we present empirical evidence that confirms the positive relationship between democracy and industrial diversification

co2 emissions per value added in exports of china a comparison with usa based on generalized logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition abstract this study first analyzes co 2 emissions per value added epv in exports of china during 1995 2009 and compares it with that of usa second a generalized logarithmic mean divisia index glmdi method is proposed to decompose the epv gaps between china and usa into five effects this method generalizes existing lmdi methods and makes the multiplicative decomposition of a sum of several terms possible then attribution analysis on value added coefficient effect is conducted results show that aggregate epv of china s exports is 4 20 mt billion us dollars in 1995 which decreases to 2 48 in 2009 for usa it is 0 66 0 33 respectively epv of china s exports is several times greater than that of usa at sectoral level industrial sectors and transport sectors are top sectors with large epv in china s exports which corresponds to the case of usa epv gaps of the service sectors between china and usa have become increasingly prominent since 2000 decomposition results show that emission coefficients value added coefficients and input output structure are the main driving factors of the expanding epv gaps between china and usa attribution analysis on value added coefficient effect the fastest growing effect shows that electrical and optical sector has been the largest contributor to epv gaps between china and usa resulting from value added coefficient effect since 1998 and its effect sharply increases during 1995 2009 policy implications derived are finally discussed

does corporate governance matter more for high financial slack firms the effect of corporate governance may depend on a firm s financial slack on one hand financial slack may be spent by managers for their private benefits a high level is likely associated with severe agency conflicts thus corporate governance matters more for high financial slack firms i e the wasteful spending hypothesis on the other hand financial slack provides insurance against future uncertainties a low level may signal deviations from the best interests of shareholders then corporate governance is more effective for low financial slack firms i e the precautionary needs hypothesis we differentiate the two hypotheses using the passage of antitakeover laws to identify exogenous variation in governance consistent with the wasteful spending hypothesis the laws passage has a larger negative impact on the operating and stock market performance of high financial slack firms further analysis shows that these firms do not invest more but become less efficient at cost management after the

assessing the effect of microfinance on vulnerability and poverty among low income households we empirically investigate whether participation in the indian self help group shg microfinance programme has helped reduced poverty and household vulnerability using cross sectional shg rural household survey data the potential selection bias is eliminated by propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment on treated effect using nearest neighbour matching and a local linear regression algorithm we find that vulnerability in shg members is not significantly higher than in non shg members even though the shg members have a high incidence of poverty however vulnerability declines significantly for those that have been shg members for more than one year these results are found to be robust using sensitivity analysis and the rosenbaum bounds method

the impact of group based credit programs on poor households in bangladesh does the gender of participants matter this paper estimates the impact of participation by gender in the grameen bank and two other group based micro credit programs in bangladesh on labor supply schooling household expenditure and assets the empirical method uses a quasi experimental survey design to correct for the bias from unobserved individual and village level heterogeneity we find that program credit has a larger effect on the behavior of poor households in bangladesh when women are the program participants for example annual household consumption expenditure increases 18 taka for every 100 additional taka borrowed by women from these credit programs compared with 11 taka for men

time variation in macro financial linkages summary we analyze the contribution of credit spread house and stock price shocks to the us economy based on a time varying parameter vector autoregressive model we find that the contribution of financial shocks to gross domestic product growth fluctuates from about 20 in normal times to more than 50 during the great recession the great recession and the subsequent weak recovery can largely be traced back to negative housing shocks housing shocks have become more important for the real economy since the early 2000s and negative housing shocks are more important than positive ones unexpected increases in credit spreads have not been deflationary recently copyright 2016 john wiley sons ltd

aid dutch disease and manufacturing growth abstract we examine the effects of aid on the growth of manufacturing using a methodology that exploits the variation within countries and across manufacturing sectors and corrects for possible reverse causality we find that aid inflows have systematic adverse effects on a country s competitiveness as reflected in the lower relative growth rate of exportable industries we provide some evidence suggesting that the channel for these effects is the real exchange rate appreciation caused by aid inflows we conjecture that this may explain in part why it is hard to find robust evidence that foreign aid helps countries grow

enjoying the quiet life corporate governance and managerial preferences much of our understanding of corporations builds on the idea that managers when they are not closely monitored will pursue goals that are not in shareholders interests but what goals would managers pursue this paper uses variation in corporate governance generated by state adoption of antitakeover laws to empirically map out managerial preferences we use plant level data and exploit a unique feature of corporate law that allows us to deal with possible biases associated with the timing of the laws we find that when managers are insulated from takeovers worker wages especially those of white collar workers rise the destruction of old plants falls but the creation of new plants also falls finally overall productivity and profitability decline in response to these laws our results suggest that active empire building may not be the norm and that managers may instead prefer to enjoy the quiet life

volatility and development why is gdp growth so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones we identify four possible reasons i poor countries specialize in more volatile sectors ii poor countries specialize in fewer sectors iii poor countries experience more frequent and more severe aggregate shocks e g from macroeconomic policy and iv poor countries macroeconomic fluctuations are more highly correlated with the shocks of the sectors they specialize in we show how to decompose volatility into these four sources quantify their contribution to aggregate volatility and study how they relate to the stage of development we document the following regularities first as countries develop their productive structure moves from more volatile to less volatile sectors second the level of specialization declines with development at early stages and slowly increases at later stages of development third the volatility of country specific macroeconomic shocks falls with development fourth the covariance between sector specific and country specific shocks does not vary systematically with the level of development we argue that many theories linking volatility and development are not consistent with these findings and suggest new directions for future theoretical work

microeconomic origins of macroeconomic tail risks we document that even though the normal distribution provides a good approximation to gdp fluctuations it severely underpredicts macroeconomic tail risks that is the frequency of large economic downturns using a multi sector general equilibrium model we show that the interplay of idiosyncratic microeconomic shocks and sectoral heterogeneity results in systematic departures in the likelihood of large economic downturns relative to what is implied by the normal distribution notably we also show that such departures can happen while gdp is approximately normally distributed away from the tails highlighting the qualitatively different behavior of large economic downturns from small or moderate fluctuations we further demonstrate the special role that input output linkages play in generating tail comovements whereby large recessions involve not only significant gdp contractions but also large simultaneous declines across a wide range of sectors

how do the trans pacific economies affect the usa an industrial sector approach this paper studies how the trans pacific region affects the us economy in terms of business cycle transmission we use a large data set consisting of disaggregated sectoral industrial production indexes from selected countries in the region and employ a factor augmented vector autoregression favar approach to analyse the transmission of shocks in different industries we find that a positive output shock in the entire trans pacific region has positive effects on the majority of us manufacturing sectors we also find that sectoral shocks in five sectors of the trans pacific region have a large impact on the overall us economy three of the five sectors displayed strong same sector responses relative to the overall response suggesting that vertical production linkages might play a key role in the transmission of shocks our results highlight the importance of examining industrial sectors in studying the transmission of shocks in the trans pacific region

sectoral versus aggregate shocks a structural factor analysis of industrial production using factor methods we decompose industrial production ip into components arising from aggregate and sector specific shocks an approximate factor model finds that nearly all of ip variability is associated with common factors we then use a multisector growth model to adjust for the effects of input output linkages in the factor analysis thus a structural factor analysis indicates that the great moderation was characterized by a fall in the importance of aggregate shocks while the volatility of sectoral shocks was essentially unchanged consequently the role of idiosyncratic shocks increased considerably after the mid 1980s explaining half of the quarterly variation in ip

real business cycles in this paper we demonstrate how certain very ordinary economic principles lead maximizing individuals to choose consumption production plans that display many of the characteristics commonly associated with business cycles our explanation is entirely consistent with i rational expectations ii complete current information iii stable preferences iv no technological change v no long lived commodities vi no frictions or adjustment costs vii no government viii no money and ix no serial dependence in the stochastic elements of the environment we also provide a completely worked out example of the type of artificial economy we have in mind the time series properties of the example exhibit some major features of observed business cycles although this type of model may not be capable of explaining all of the regularities in actual business cycles we believe that it provides a useful well defined benchmark for assessing the relative importance of factors e g monetary disturbances