equity valuation using multiples we examine the valuation performance of a comprehensive list of value drivers and find that multiples derived from forward earnings explain stock prices remarkably well pricing errors are within 15 percent of stock prices for about half our sample in terms of relative performance the following general rankings are observed consistently each year forward earnings measures are followed by historical earnings measures cash flow measures and book value of equity are tied for third and sales performs the worst curiously performance declines when we consider more complex measures of intrinsic value based on short cut residual income models contrary to the popular view that different industries have different best multiples these overall rankings are observed consistently for almost all industries examined since we require analysts earnings and growth forecasts and positive values for all measures our results may not be representative of the many firm years excluded from our sample

x efficiency in australian banking an empirical investigation this paper empirically investigates the x eaciency technical and allocative in australian banks a non parametric method of data envelopment analysis dea has been used to arrive at the eaciency scores banks in this sample were found to have low levels of overall eaciency compared with the banks in the european countries and in the us the results indicate that as a source of overall ineaciency the technical component was more important than the allocative component thus the ineaciency in australian banks can be attributed to wasting of inputs technical ineaciency rather than choosing the incorrect input combinations allocative ineaciency domestic banks were found to be more eacient than foreign owned banks the study has important implications such as guiding the government policy regarding deregulation and mergers since the study pinpoints the sources of ineaciency it would also help banks with strategic planning 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

an empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model abstract this paper provides an empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model proposed in ohlson ohlson j a 1995 earnings book values and dividends in security valuation contemporary accounting research 11 661 687 we point out that existing empirical research relying on ohlson s model is similar to past research relying explicitly on the dividend discounting model we establish that the key original empirical implications of ohlson s model stem from the information dynamics that link current information to future residual income our empirical results generally support ohlson s information dynamics however we find that our empirical implementation of ohlson s model provides only minor improvements over existing attempts to implement the dividend discounting model by capitalizing short term earnings forecasts in perpetuity

on the role of small models in macrodynamics abstract this paper focuses on the role of small models in macrodynamics it discusses the insights that i believe these models offer and the extent to which they can address some of the complex issues such as heterogeneity and interactions among agents that are receiving increasing attention in the literature i comment on what i view to be the most productive role for numerical simulations and finally offer some brief comments in defense of the state of modern macroeconomic theory in light of the criticism it has received as a result of the recent financial crisis

the capital structure and investment decisions of the small owner managed firm some exploratory issues in the burgeoning literature on small firm financing the problem of underidentification in respect to the supply of and demand for capital has not been fully resolved in an attempt to progress this issue the current paper looks at some of the issues influencing the demand for finance in small firms which are owner managed the paper is primarily exploratory in nature and argues that a greater emphasis might usefully be placed on the cost of capital dimension in future research into small business financing in particular it is suggested that where the objective of an owner manager is to maintain control of the firm interdependent investment and financing strategies may be chosen to control the small firms cost of capital this in turn indicates that the tendency for some small firms to invest sub optimally and exhibit slower than average growth may not be primarily determined by limitations on their supplies of finance on the demand side it may well be that in addition to equity aversion a suboptimal capital structure decision is made in the form of a reduced demand for debt in other words given the level of equity that an owner manager chooses debt may not be fully expanded to the capacity limit consistent with value maximisation

eva versus earnings does it matter which is more highly correlated with stock returns dissatisfaction with traditional accounting based performance measures has spawned a number of alternatives of which economic value added eva is currently the most prominent how can we tell which performance measures best capture managerial contributions to value there is currently a heated debate among practitioners about whether the new performance measures have a higher correlation with stock values and their returns than do traditional accounting earnings academic researchers have relied instead on the variance of performance measures to gauge their relative accuracy to formally address the above debate we use a relatively standard principal agent model in which contracts can be based on any two accounting based performance measures plus the stock price rather than model detailed differences between eva and traditional measures such as earnings we focus on the problem that while the variability of each measure is observable its exact information signal content is not the model provides a formal method for researchers to ascertain the relative value of alternative accounting based measures based on two distinct uses of the stock price first as is well known prices provide a noisy measure of managerial value added in our model stock prices also can reveal the signal content of alternative accounting based performance measures we then show how to combine stock prices earnings and eva to produce an optimally weighted compensation scheme we find that the simple correlation between eva or earnings and stock returns is a reasonably reliable guide to its value as an incentive contracting tool that is a firm could reasonably gauge the merits of adding a measure like eva by examining its correlation with the firm s stock price this is not because stock returns are themselves an ideal performance measure rather it is because correlation places appropriate weights on both the signal and noise components of alternative measures we then calibrate the theoretical improvement in incentive contracts from optimally using eva in addition to accounting earnings specifically we empirically estimate the value added of eva by firm and industry these estimates are positive and significant in predicting which firms have actually adopted eva as an internal performance measure

investigating the cost performance of uk credit unions using radial and non radial efficiency measures abstract this paper examines the relative efficiency of uk credit unions radial and non radial measures of input cost efficiency plus associated scale efficiency measures are computed for a selection of input output specifications both measures highlighted that uk credit unions have considerable scope for efficiency gains it was mooted that the documented high levels of inefficiency may be indicative of the fact that credit unions based on clearly defined and non overlapping common bonds are not in competition with each other for market share credit unions were also highlighted as suffering from a considerable degree of scale inefficiency with the majority of scale inefficient credit unions subject to decreasing returns to scale the latter aspect highlights that the uk government s goal of larger credit unions must be accompanied by greater regulatory freedom if inefficiency is to be avoided one of the advantages of computing non radial measures is that an insight into potential over or under expenditure on specific inputs can be obtained through a comparison of the non radial measure of efficiency with the associated radial measure two interesting findings emerged the first that uk credit unions over spend on dividend payments and the second that they under spend on labour costs

detecting abnormal credit union performance abstract credit unions are an important financial intermediary but little credit union research is done a primary reason for the lack of research is the cooperative nature of the industry making traditional methods of detecting abnormal performance inappropriate this paper proposes two methods of detecting abnormal performance one parametric the other non parametric instead of testing the efficiency of the institution this paper proposes testing the return vector as indicated in the theoretical objective function of the member simulations demonstrate that both methods are correctly specified and powerful

credit union rate and earnings retention decisions under uncertainty and taxation this paper presents a model of credit union loan and deposit rate setting when net income flows are uncertain and subj ect to taxation optimal rates are chosen to maximize the expected va lue of a performance measure based on a comparison of the credit unio n s rates to alternative rates subject to a probabilistic constraint on the net change in capital reserves relative to a capital adequacy standard taxation will alter the end of period trade off between th e change in capital reserves and the immediate distribution of surplu s and would likely affect credit unions in a nonuniform manner and p erhaps be regressive in nature copyright 1988 by ohio state university press

a defense of the fomc we defend the forecasting performance of the fomc from the recent criticism of christina and david romer our argument is that the fomc forecasts a worst case scenario that it uses to design decisions that will work well enough are robust despite possible misspecification of its model because these fomc forecasts are not predictions of what the fomc expects to occur under its model it is inappropriate to compare their performance in a horse race against other forecasts our interpretation of the fomc as a robust policymaker can explain all thefindings of the romers and rationalises differences between fomc forecasts and forecasts published in the greenbook by the staff of the federal reserve system

consumer biases and mutual ownership abstract we show how ownership of the firm by its customers as well as nonprofit status can prevent firms from using contractual terms that take advantage of consumer biases by eliminating an outside residual claimant with control over the firm these alternatives to investor ownership reduce the incentive of the firm to offer such terms however customers who are unaware of their behavioral biases may fail to recognize this advantage of non investor owned firms we present evidence from the consumer financial services market that supports our theory comparing contract terms we find that mutually owned firms offer lower penalties such as default interest rates and higher up front prices such as introductory interest rates than do investor owned firms however consumers most vulnerable to these penalties are no more likely to use mutually owned firms

ownership effects among native american banks 2001 2016 abstractminority depository institutions mdis including native american banks natbs play an integral role in providing financial services to the under served natbs are split between those th

growth and value hybrid valuation model based on mean reversion abstractthis article proposes a novel valuation model growth and value hybrid model to estimate the stock price this proposed model combines the essence of the asset based approach the income based approach and the principle of mean reversion to develop the theoretical closed form formula consisting of three coefficients value coefficient value support coefficient and growth coefficient regression analysis is employed to fit market data to determine these coefficients moreover this study proposes the double sorting method to build the quantile regression models of the formula to estimate the stock price at a specific quantile the results show that the predictive capability of the hybrid valuation model is superior to the model without using value support coefficient which supports the assumption that the pbr is not associated with the roe when the roe is less than a threshold in different time periods of the stock market no significant difference exists on the value support coefficient howe

shareholder value efficiency in european banking abstract this paper advances the studies of hughes j p lang w w mester l j moon c g pagano m s 2003 do bankers sacrifice value to build empires managerial incentives industry consolidation and financial performance journal of banking and finance 27 417 447 by developing a new measure of bank performance which we refer to as shareholder value efficiency a bank producing the maximum possible economic value added eva given particular inputs and outputs is defined as shareholder value efficient this new efficiency measure is estimated using the stochastic frontier method focussing on the french german italian and uk banking systems over the period 1997 2002 and includes both listed and non listed banks we find that european banks are on average 36 shareholder value inefficient shareholder value efficiency is found to be the most important factor explaining value creation in european banking whereas cost and profit efficiency only have a marginal influence

valuation of bankrupt firms this study compares the market value of firms that reorganize in bankruptcy with estimates of value based on management s published cash flow projections we estimate firm values using models that have been shown in other contexts to generate relatively precise estimates of value we find that these methods generally yield unbiased estimates of value but the dispersion of valuation errors is very widethe sample ratio of estimated value to market value varies from less than 20 to greater than 250 cross sectional analysis indicates that the variation in these errors is related to empirical proxies for claimholders incentives to overstate or understate the firm s value

splitting up value a critical review of residual income theories this paper deals with the notion of residual income which may be defined as the surplus profit that residues after a capital charge opportunity cost has been covered while the origins of the notion trace back to the 19th century in depth theoretical investigations and widespread real life applications are relatively recent and concern an interdisciplinary field connecting management accounting corporate finance and financial mathematics peasnell 1981 1982 peccati 1987 1989 1991 stewart 1991 ohlson 1995 arnold and davies 2000 young and o byrne 2001 martin petty and rich 2003 this paper presents both a historical outline of its birth and development and an overview of the main recent contributions regarding capital budgeting decisions production and sales decisions implementation of optimal portfolios forecasts of asset prices and calculation of intrinsic values a most recent theory the systemic value added approach also named lost capital paradigm provides a dierent denition of residual income consistent with arbitrage theory en folded in keynes s 1936 notion of user cost and forerun by pressacco and stucchi 1997 the theory has been formally introduced in magni 2000a b c 2001a b 2003 where its properties are thoroughly investigated as well as its relations with the standard theory two different lost capital metrics have been considered for value based management purposes by drukarczyk and schueler 2000 and young and o byrne 2001 this work illustrates the main properties of the two theories and their relations and provides a minimal guide to construction of performance metrics in the two approaches

accounting window dressing and template regulation a case study of the australian credit union industry this article documents the response of cooperative institutions that were required to adhere to new capital adequacy regulations traditionally geared for profit maximising organisations using data from the australian credit union industry we demonstrate that the cooperative philosophy and internal corporate governance structure of cooperatives will lead management to increase capital adequacy ratios through the application of accounting window dressing techniques this is opposite to the intended purpose of template regulation aimed at efficiently increasing operating margins and lowering risk our results raise several debatable issues regarding the ethics of accounting management and the imposition of one shoe fits all external regulation

optimal credit rationing in not for profit financial institutions we examine the dynamic optimization problem for not for profit financial institutions nfps that maximize consumer surplus not profits we characterize the optimal dynamic policy and find that it involves credit rationing interest rates set by mature nfps will typically be more favorable to customers than market rates as any surplus is distributed in the form of interest rate subsidies with credit rationing being required to prevent these subsidies from distorting loan volumes from their optimal levels rationing overcomes a fundamental problem in nfps it allows them to distribute the surplus without distorting the volume of activity from the efficient level

credit union policies and performances in latin america this paper presents a conceptual framework for explaining credit unions cus loan delinquency and profitability in developing countries it also offers an empirical estimation for a unique sample of cus in latin america

the evolution of cost productivity and efficiency among us credit unions abstract advances in information processing technology have eroded the advantages of small scale and proximity to customers that traditionally enabled small lenders to thrive nonetheless the membership and market share of us credit unions have increased though their average size has also risen we investigate changes in the efficiency and productivity of us credit unions during 1989 2006 by benchmarking the performance of individual firms against an estimated order quantile lying near the efficient frontier we construct a cost analog of the malmquist productivity index which we decompose to estimate changes in cost and scale efficiency and changes in technology we find that cost productivity fell on average across all credit unions but especially among smaller credit unions smaller credit unions confronted a shift in technology that increased the minimum cost required to produce given amounts of output all but the largest credit unions also became less scale efficient over time

bank level estimates of market power abstract the aim of this study is to provide an empirical methodology for the estimation of market power of individual banks the new method employs the well known model of panzar and rosse 1987 and proposes its estimation using the local regression technique local regression yields coefficient estimates equal to the number of observations and thus market power is estimated for each bank at each point in time in addition a number of restrictive assumptions regarding the properties of the production function of banks are relaxed a panel of banks from transition countries that has been recently employed by delis 2010 to obtain market power estimates using the panzar and rosse model at the country level is used for comparative purposes we find that country averages of the bank level results exhibit a very close relationship with standard industry level panzar rosse estimates however the empirical results suggest that many banks in countries with fairly competitive banking systems deviate significantly from the country averages and that market power varies substantially across banks in each country

an economic theory of a credit union the majority of research to date on cus has been empirical cf cargill 1 and kidwell and peterson 7 yet there is serious need to develop a theoretical framework of cu behavior that incorporates their unique characteristics a cu is essentially a financial intermediation cooperative however the standard theoretical treatments of financial intermediaries cf meyer 8 and cooperative enterprises cannot be directly applied to model credit union behavior there are two principal characteristics of cus that prevent this first in a cu and cooperatives in general the members are both the owners of the organization and the consumers of its output or suppliers of its input one cannot simply assume that the members seek to maximize the profit generated by their transactions with the cu irrespective of the price and quantities of those same transactions thus models of a financial firm based on profit maximization cannot be directly translated to a cu environment second in a cu the membership provides both the demand for and supply of loanable funds the cu then intermediates between its member savers and member borrowers this heterogeneity is an inherent source of conflict between members clearly a cu cannot simultaneously maximize its dividend rate for savers and minimize its loan rate for borrowers since most theoretical models of cooperative enterprises assume a homogeneous member objective they are not generally applicable to cus there are two basic requirements for a framework to model cu behavior first the specification of the objective function should focus on the value of cu participation to the members this value should include the prices and quantities of transactions as well as any profit that results second the analysis should explicitly consider the possibility of conflict among members and the resolution of that conflict being a preference to either the borrowers or savers the existing literature on cus contains a wide variety of objective functions hempel and yawitz 5 ignore the owners are consumers issue and simply contend that cus like other financial intermediaries should maximize profit most writers however recognize that profit maximization would be a somewhat incongruous objective for an organization that typically labels itself not for profit murray and white 9 use cost minimization subject to an output constraint keating 6 employs the managerial discretion approach by maximizing the manager s utility function subject to minimum member benefit constraints taylor 11 12 suggests that the cu should minimize the difference between its average loan rate and savings rate paid smith 10 argues that the cu should

the quality and quantity of bank intermediation and economic growth evidence from asia pacific we investigate the impact of the quantity and quality of bank intermediation on economic growth across 14 asia pacific economies over 2003 2015 measures of bank shareholder value efficiency as wel

rural finance and agricultural technology adoption in ethiopia does the institutional design of lending organizations matter summary it has now become almost a stylized fact that sustained agricultural growth is central to rapid poverty reduction and economic development yet world poverty is largely concentrated in the agrarian societies which have the potential for agricultural productivity growth this is particularly true for sub saharan african countries where the gaps between potential and actual yields remain high minimizing this gap through the promotion of modern inputs such as fertilizer and modern seeds has been at the core of almost all development strategies in ethiopia among other initiatives the country has promoted microfinance institutions and member owned financial cooperatives to alleviate credit constraints of the smallholder farmers this paper analyzes the impacts of these institutions using household survey data and a propensity score matching technique we examine the effects that institutional financial services have on farmers adoption of agricultural technology in ethiopia the results suggest that access to institutional finance has a significant positive impact on both the adoption and extent of technology use however when impacts are disaggregated by type of financial institution and farm size heterogeneities are observed in particular financial cooperatives have a greater impact on technology adoption than microfinance institutions and the results appear to vary depending on farm size and types of inputs the paper concludes with implications for policies to promote adoption of modern agricultural inputs

okun s law across time and frequencies abstract we present the first assessment of u s okun s law across time and frequencies we use a set of continuous wavelet tools that allows for estimating okun s coefficient and the lead lag of output over unemployment at each moment and for each cyclical frequency we find similar results for the gaps and the first differences specifications at business cycles frequencies but not at lower frequencies okun s coefficient has increased in absolute value since the mid 1960s except in 1985 1995 and is not particularly sensitive to recessions the lead of output varies considerably over time and also at different frequencies we observe especially with the gaps specification that there are at least two cyclical processes relevant for the okun s relationship one at the business cycle and another at lower frequencies methods that do not take this into account are bound to mix the information embedded in both cycles

on dfis liability management beyond reference rate setting strategies derived in a capm framework the paper addresses two related questions i limited deposit accommodation under capital regulation and ii characterization of rate differentials in correlated uncorrelated multideposit markets under certain circumstances an optimal rate capacity choice policy will imply deposit capacity is not fully utilized all the time since capacity is not costless excess liability capacity may be an optimal financial decision when the intermediary must meet adequacy test assorted with financial penalties or with enforceable limitations on its balance sheet growth in the other case the intermediary is likely to introduce risky rate differentials to the extent risk is actually reduced enough to increase its market valuation for correlated multideposit markets this obtains whenever pairs of supplies are sufficiently negative to make their weighted covariance sum larger than the segment own variance alternatively for uncorrelated segments higher rates will be offered to steady depositors whose standard deviation of class supply contributes little to total risk

deregulation market power and risk behaviour in spanish banks abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on the effects of regulatory changes in the market power of spanish banks it also analyses the response of banks in terms of risk taking behaviour as a result of a reduction in economic profits we find that liberalisation measures have increased competition and eroded banks market power we observe that banks with lower charter values tend to have lower equity assets ratios lower solvency and to experience higher credit risk the last evidence is new in the literature and calls for strengthening regulatory concerns about credit risk management by banks in situations of increased competition

a theoretic framework for the analysis of credit union decision making this paper presents a formal theoretic framework to analyze credit union interest rates on loans and savings deposits the unique motivational and institutional features of a credit union in particular its structure as a financial service cooperative are used to develop the objective function this is based on a comparison of the credit union s rates to alternatively available market rates and includes parameters to recognize the possibility of borrower saver conflict the principal result is that the optimal rates and reactions to exogenous changes depend critically on the preference of the organization toward financial gain to the borrowing and saving members

the p b roe valuation model 1984 the p b roe valuation model financial analysts journal vol 40 no 1 pp 58 66

the panzar rosse revenue test and market power in banking abstract the panzar rosse h statistic is a commonly used measure of market power in banking it is widely believed that h 0 is inconsistent with significant market power this study rigorously disproves that perception instead the possibility of h 0 under conditions of substantial market power turns out robust to the timing of banks actions relative costs choice of strategic variable degree of product differentiation strategy static or dynamic and degree of heterogeneity in banks conduct collusive versus fringe and hence may be common in practice

robust monetary policy with competing reference models abstract the existing literature on robust monetary policy rules has largely focused on the case in which the policymaker has a single reference model while the true economy lies within a specified neighborhood of the reference model in this paper we show that such rules may perform very poorly in the more general case in which non nested models represent competing perspectives about controversial issues such as expectations formation and inflation persistence using bayesian and minimax strategies we then consider whether any simple rule can provide robust performance across such divergent representations of the economy we find that a robust outcome is attainable only in cases where the objective function places substantial weight on stabilizing both output and inflation in contrast we are unable to find a robust policy rule when the sole policy objective is to stabilize inflation we analyze these results using a new diagnostic approach namely by quantifying the fault tolerance of each model economy with respect to deviations from optimal policy

valuation capital structure and shareholder unanimity for depository financial intermediaries the theory of corporate finance is not directly applicable to financial intermediary decision making the lack of applicability stems largely from the particular conditions that distinguish intermediary operations from those of the nonfinancial firm first when intermediaries accept deposit financing they must produce services such as liquidity and convenience at considerable expense for real resources second the introduction of intermediation is likely to be accompanied by incomplete markets so that shareholder unanimity is not in general valid in this paper a model with incomplete markets is developed and a shareholder approved rule for intermediary capital structure decisions is derived

testing the relationship between competition and efficiency in banking a panel data analysis the relationship between competition and efficiency in the banking sectors of five eu countries is investigated using granger type causality test estimations we find positive causation between market power and efficiency whereas the causality running from efficiency to competition is weak

discussion of revalued financial tangible and intangible assets association with share prices and non market based value estimates barth and clinch 1998 henceforth bc like easton eddey and harris 1993 henceforth eeh examine the relation between asset revaluation data in the financial statements of australian firms and various value metrics a principal difference between the two studies is the choice of value metrics and the formulation of the regression models relating the revaluation data and these metrics the value metrics used by bc are price per share and a measure of intrinsic value per share most of this discussion will focus on the possible effects of scale in regressions that have price or value per share as the dependent variable my main point is that statistical associations between price balance sheet data and income statement data in these regressions may be a spurious effect of scale other issues raised at the conference included the expected magnitudes of the coefficient estimates from the regression analyses management motives for asset revaluations econometric issues associated with pooling a time series and cross section of data and reasons for use of independent valuations versus valuations by company directors since these issues were addressed in eeh and in the discussion of eeh by bernard 1993 i pay less attention to them in this discussion

feva a financial and economic approach to valuation traditional valuation methods economic value added discounted cash flow and modigliani and miller models are mathematically equivalent and thus should provide the same result when the same inputs are used they do not because these methods focus on different value drivers we suggest an alternative valuation method that provides the adjustment necessary to produce consistent results we also propose a new corporate valuation method financial and economic value added or feva that integrates the eva dcf and mm approaches and allows a detailed analysis of financial and economic corporate value drivers

benefit imbalances among credit union member groups evidence of borrower dominated saver dominated and neutral behaviour theoretical models of credit union cu behaviour suggest that cus may be saver dominated borrower dominated or neutral a cu is dominated if it is operated for the benefit of one member group at the expense of the other neutral behaviour occurs when a cu is managed so that both member groups are equally benefited this empirical study develops a direct measure of the monetary benefits to each member group and tests for the existence of dominated behaviour among us cus in 1984 and 1985 evidence of dominated and neutral behaviour is found and the operating characteristics of these distinct organizational forms are generally consistent with theoretical expectations

banks responses to deregulation profits technology and efficiency the deregulation of interest rates in the early 1980s raised bank funding costs and lowered profits in response banks raised fees for deposit services reduced branch operating costs and shifted to higher earning assets rates of return did not regain their prederegulation levels until the early 1990s our goal is to decompose the change in bank profits following deregulation into i intemal bank initiated adjustments to the new regulatory structure and ii external contemporaneous changes in banks business environment this decomposition will depend in part on the assumed competitive structure of the banking industry with perfect competition output and input prices are part of the external environment and banks responses are limited to changes in output and input quantities an alternative approach assumes imperfect competition where banks have some control over output prices deposit fees minimum balance requirements and interest rates on certain loans and output quantities and input prices comprise the external environment the altemative model is supported by the data using this model large banks but not smaller banks are found to have relied primarily on changing output prices and input use to mitigate and reverse the negative effects of deregulation on profits the adjustment to deregulation was essentially complete after four years following this additional changes in bank profitability during the late 1980s were primarily due to changes in banks business environment

the relevance of the value relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting another view this paper explains that value relevance research assesses how well accounting amounts reflect information used by equity investors and provides insights into questions of interest to standard setters a primary focus of financial statements is equity investment other uses of financial statement information such as contracting do not diminish the importance of value relevance research value relevance questions can be addressed using extant valuation models value relevance studies address econometric issues that otherwise could limit inferences and can accommodate and be used to study the implications of accounting conservatism r 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification m41 m44 g12

spectral welfare cost functions if preferences are not time separable economic agents care not only about the magnitude of fluctuations in consumption but also about the persistence and other temporal characteristics of those fluctuations this paper extends and develops the theory of spectral utility functions which measure utility frequency by frequency to illustrate the interaction between consumption volatility and time non separable preferences to highlight the economic implications of the interaction spectral welfare cost functions are developed to provide a quantitative measure of the importance to economic agents of the temporal delivery of consumption volatility

economic value competition and financial distress in the european banking system abstract in this paper we examine the impact of a large number of factors at the bank level liquidity and credit risks asset size income diversification and market power at the industry level banking concentration and macro level real gdp growth on bank financial distress using an unbalanced panel of 308 european commercial banks between 1996 and 2009 the observations falling below a given threshold of the empirical distribution of the shareholder value ratio proxy bank financial distress we employ a panel probit regression and given the presence of overlapping data giving rise to residual autocorrelation we use the bertschek and lechner 1998 robust estimator of the covariance matrix of parameters we show that credit risk liquidity risk and bank market power are the most influential determinants of distressed shareholder value ratio finally we evaluate the model out sample forecasting performance over the 2008 2009 crisis period

comparing the accuracy and explainability of dividend free cash flow and abnormal earnings equity valuation models this paper compares the reliability ofvalue estimates from the discounted dividend model the discounted free cash flow model and the discounted abnormal earnings model using a large sample of val

franchise value and the growth process a firn s theoretical price can be thought of as the sum of its tangible valuethe capitalized value of its current earnings streamplus its franchise value the capitalized value offuture investments offering abovemarket returns the price earnings ratio pie of a firm with no franchise value the base p e is simply the reciprocal of the market capitalization rate by contrast the pie of a firm with substantial franchise opportunities will be at a premium to the base pie

on the implications of market power in banking evidence from developing countries abstract this paper investigates how different degrees of market power affect bank efficiency and stability in the context of developing economies it sheds light on the competition stability nexus by documenting and analyzing the complex interactions between a tripod of variables that are central for regulators the degree of market power bank cost and profit efficiency and overall firm stability the results show that an increase in the degree of market power leads to greater bank stability and enhanced profit efficiency despite significant cost efficiency losses the findings lend empirical justification to the traditional view that increased competition may undermine bank stability and may bear significant implications for stressed banking systems in developing economies

cross country comparisons of efficiency evidence from the uk and italian investment firms abstract this paper compares and reconciles two new methods for cross country comparisons of the cost efficiency of uk and italian investment firms over the period 1995 1998 it employs four different specifications of the stochastic frontier methodology using a translog cost function in order to measure x efficiency the traditional common frontier reveals that italian investment firms are nearly as efficient as uk firms to overcome traditional limitations two methods are used in this paper they provide consistent results the first method shows differences between the efficiency of the two countries by incorporating environmental variables into the cross country common frontier the second method shows differences in the efficiency of the domestic versus foreign investment firms in the two countries by testing the ability to monitor and control on a cross border basis finally to identify investment firms that are both cost and profit efficient we undertake a profitability test

evaluating the cost efficiency of the italian banking system what can be learned from the joint application of parametric and non parametric techniques abstract research on bank efficiency has developed in two separate streams econometric studies and data envelopment analysis a linear programming technique these two branches of literature have developed quickly but separately in this paper these two approaches have been tested on a common panel of 270 italian banks and this has suggested the following i econometric and linear programming results do not differ dramatically when based on the same data and conceptual framework ii when differences arise they can be explained by going back to the intrinsic features of the models moreover some findings on italian banks may be of interest also to the international reader i efficiency scores show a high variance ii the banking system is split in two between northern and southern banks iii there is a direct rather than inverse relationship between productive efficiency and asset quality iv the efficiency of italian banks did not increase over the period 1988 1992

exploring the nexus between banking sector reform and performance evidence from newly acceded eu countries abstract the aim of this study is to examine the relationship between banking sector reform and bank performance measured in terms of efficiency total factor productivity growth and net interest margin accounting for the effects through competition and bank risk taking to this end we develop an empirical model of bank performance which is consistently estimated using recent econometric techniques the model is applied to bank panel data from ten newly acceded eu countries the results indicate that both banking sector reform and competition exert a positive impact on bank efficiency while the effect of reform on total factor productivity growth is significant only toward the end of the reform process finally the effect of capital and credit risk on bank performance is in most cases negative while it seems that higher liquid assets reduce the efficiency and productivity of banks

search for the best financial performance measure basics are better economic value added eva is a well known and widely used measure of operating performance bacidore boquist milbourn and thakor 1997 claimed in a recent financial analysts journal article that a modified version of eva refined economic value added reva is theoretically superior to eva actually eva is theoretically superior to reva

bank income structure and risk an empirical analysis of european banks the purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between bank risk and product diversification in the changing structure of the european banking industry based on a broad set of european banks for the period 1996 2002 our study first shows that banks expanding into non interest income activities present higher risk and higher insolvency risk than banks which mainly supply loans however considering size effects and splitting non interest activities into both trading activities and commission and fee activities we show that the positive link with risk is mostly accurate for small banks and essentially driven by commission and fee activities a higher share of trading activities is never associated with higher risk and for small banks it implies in some cases lower asset and default risks

determinants of margin in microfinance institutions abstractmicrofinance institutions mfis lend to the poor however microfinance clients suffer from high interest rates a type of poverty penalty this article analyses the margin determinants in mfis a banking model has been adapted to microfinance this model has been tested using 9 year panel data some factors explaining bank margin also explain mfi margin with operating costs being the most important factor specific microfinance factors are donations and legal status as regulated mfis can collect deposits it has also been found that mfis operating in countries with a high level of financial inclusion have low margins

liability management of financial intermediaries in a dynamic and uncertain perspective this paper examines the effect of rate uncertainty first for the loan rate alone next for both asset and liability rates on the liability funding decisions of a risk neutral intermediary in this model a la pindyck rates evolve according to stochastic processes convex adjustment costs arise from the dichotomy of existing core deposits and new savings balances and the intermediary s cash flow is embedded into capital market theory then we show that the stationary equilibrium obtains at the intersection of the locus of no change in deposit holdings with the isocline of zero change in savings balances loan rate uncertainty alone shifts the savings isocline outward when marginal adjustment costs are rising at an increasing rate but when asset and liability rates are uncertain their impact on the mean intermediation spread core deposit holdings and adjustment costs depends on whether they are correlated or not

the joint estimation of bank level market power and efficiency the aim of this study is to provide a methodology for the joint estimation of efficiency and market power of individual banks the proposed method utilizes the separate implications of the new empirical industrial organization and the stochastic frontier literatures and suggests identification using the local maximum likelihood lml technique through lml estimation of market power of individual banks becomes feasible while a number of restrictive theoretical and empirical assumptions are relaxed the empirical analysis is carried out on the basis of emu bank data market power estimates indicate fairly competitive conduct in general however heterogeneity in market power estimates is substantial across banks the latter result suggests that the practice of some banks deviates from the average fairly competitive behavior a finding that has important policy implications finally efficiency and market power present a negative relationship which is in line with the so called quiet life hypothesis

frequency specific effects of stabilization policies in this paper we describe a set of trade offs that policymakers face with respect to fluctua tions at different frequencies a complete treat ment is given in brock durlauf and rondina 2008 the presence of frequency specific effects of policy choices has generally not been a focus of macroeconomic policy analysis important exceptions include alexei onatski and noah m williams 2003 our analysis dif fers from previous studies in that our objective is to understand to what extent a policymaker is forced when choosing a feedback rule to sta bilize the economy to exacerbate volatility at some frequencies in order to reduce them at oth ers or whether it is possible to reduce volatil ity at all frequencies these trade offs known as design limits in the control theory literature are important in understanding what stabiliza tion policies do and also possess implications for policy design in the presence of policymaker ignorance

book rate of return and prediction of earnings changes an empirical investigation over the years there has developed a fairly substantial body of research on the time series of earnings as a whole this literature concludes that changes in annual accounting earnings are unpredictable that is earnings follow a random walk 1 based on this result some inferences of economic substance policy have been claimed 2 in this paper we reconsider empirical issues which at least to some extent have been obscured by this conclusion we argue that the above result is only true in a limited sense since a modest enlargement of the predictive information set should allow for a rejection of the hypothesis that earnings changes are

shareholder value creation in japanese banking this paper advances the study of fiordelisi and molyneux 2010 by examining the shareholder value efficiency and its determinants for a large sample of japanese banks between 1999 and 2011 a new specifically tailored measure of the economic value added approach based on the shadow price of equity is developed in order to account for specific characteristics of the japanese banking system this new shareholder value measure is then used in a dynamic panel data model as a linear function of various bank risk bank specific and macroeconomic variables this study finds that cost efficiency gains credit risk and bank size are the most important factors in explaining the shareholder value creation in japanese banking cost efficiency changes are also found to significantly influence cost of equity capital

the effects of parent company business on occupational credit union behaviour 1986 the effects of parent company business on occupational credit union behaviour applied economics vol 18 no 12 pp 1311 1321

the demand for and supply of deposits by credit unions the caisses populaires case reply and comments abstract smith points out rightly that the symbol r refers to two different though each time well defined concepts in chateau s 1980 article in this journal his claim however that this leads to a misspecification of the theoretical model is erroneous and is refuted further it is shown explicitly under which conditions the maximization of expected utility of reserves is consistent with balance sheet growth for the caisses system acting within the quebec institutional and regulatory environment the growth cum managerial discretion model is theoretically appealing as well as supported by the available empirical evidence

the federal deposit insurance fund that didn t put a bite on u s tax payers abstract unlike the federal savings and loan insurance corporation and the bank insurance fund the national credit union share insurance fund ncusif survived the 1980s without falling into a state of accounting insolvency this paper analyzes how differences in incentive structure constrain the attractiveness of interest rate speculation and other risk taking opportunities to managers and regulators of credit unions despite these better incentives robust present value calculations establish that ncusif fell into economic insolvency during the mid 1980s besides calculating the extent of this insolvency the paper also seeks to explain why after ncusif became insolvent it could rebuild its reserves without an explicit or implicit taxpayer bailout our explanation turns on cross industry coinsurance responsibilities and the shallowness of the fund s observed insolvency relative to industry net worth we identify forces in the decisionmaking environment tending to limit the depth and duration of unresolved insolvencies at individual credit unions managerial opportunities to benefit personally from taking risks that would flow through to ncusif are constrained by difficulties in converting a credit union to stockholder form and by the intensity of proactive monitoring of troubled credit unions by sister institutions and other private coinsurers we conjecture that expanded use of coinsurance and private monitoring could reduce taxpayer loss exposure elsewhere in government deposit insurance systems