future biodiesel policy designs and consumption patterns in latvia a system dynamics model abstract decarbonisation of transport has become central to european union policy biofuels are expected to represent a substantial part of the overall strategy towards diversifying europe s energy supplies and curbing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost effective way this research deals with the dynamic simulation modeling of a biodiesel market as a part of transportation fuel market and analyses of various policy support instruments on increasing the proportion of biofuel in total transport fuel demand the study is carried out for latvia s road transport sector after it had experienced generous financial support from the government allowing the industry to develop support was abruptly stopped creating stagnation in both biodiesel supply and demand this threatened the national transport policy goals the goal of this research is to find the most effective policy strategies for achieving the national transport policy goals by applying system dynamics modeling to the current market conditions of transport fuels specifically the primary focus of this paper is an attempt to gain insight into the long term dynamic behavior of the biodiesel market in latvia the principal policy tools and mechanisms implemented can be summarized as i state subsidies at different levels and stages i e the biodiesel production sector the agricultural sector and the end consumer sectors ii increasing the excise taxes on fossil fuels iii increasing the share of the biodiesel in the transportation fuel blend the results obtained from model simulations confirm that promoting biofuel acceptance among end users is the primary key issue

time series econometric analyses of biofuel related price volatility time series econometrics studies have analyzed volatility interactions between biofuel and food and fossil fuel markets we review data modeling techniques and the main findings in the literature and present our latest contributions we identify areas for further research

willingness to supply biomass for bioenergy production a random parameter truncated analysis this paper presents research results based on data from two biomass producer surveys collected from mid missouri and southern illinois a series of random parameter truncated regressions are utilized to analyze willingness to supply results under three price scenarios marginal effects suggest that producers will supply an additional 1 6 to 2 4 of their biomass production for each one dollar increase in price and that supply for three types of biomass stover straw and hay is elastic this means commercial developers that are interested in pricing biomass and policy makers considering subsidies could expect modest supply responses for each dollar increase in price

convergence of european wheat yields the paper makes several contributions to the study of wheat yield changes in europe and the resulting economic consequences in the near to medium term future in particular it addresses the issue of the effects of yield changes on land use the transition and growth of yields are estimated using a combination of convergence time series and dynamic panel models scenarios are then run using estimated yields as input into a computable general equilibrium cge model the cge model provides a narrative framework through which the total economic impact of changes in yields can be analyzed together the complementary approaches of econometrics and general equilibrium models allow a more complete economic analysis of the consequences of yield changes for this important biofuels crop to emerge although there is no evidence of a common rate of yield convergence across europe there is evidence of absolute convergence standard time series and panel forecasting methods indicate the potential for only very modest yearly yield increases across most of europe given optimistic assumptions although potential yearly increases in newer european states could in some cases be substantially higher however the total amount of land released as a result of potential yield increases in the wheat sector is only modest because of an increase in demand for land by sectors other than wheat the overall question of whether significant yield increases will necessarily lead to large increases in land available to produce bio energy crops is rejected land freed by wheat yield increases will go to the production of a wide range of agricultural products that value it as an input the same reasoning which links yields and land use applies to all agricultural products when there are well functioning markets

agricultural technology risk and gender a cge analysis of mozambique abstract interactions between agricultural technology improvements risk reducing behavior and gender roles in agricultural production in mozambique are examined the analysis employs a computable general equilibrium cge model that explicitly incorporates key features of the economy these include detailed accounting of marketing margins home consumption risk and gender roles in agricultural production our results show that agricultural technology improvements benefit both male and female occupants of rural households due to economic interactions agricultural technology improvements are particularly compelling when combined with marketing system improvements moreover technological change in cassava appears to be a particularly strong lever for increasing female and overall household welfare especially when risk is considered

the role of technology in sustaining agriculture and the environment abstract visions of sustainable development often leave unanswered the question what actions taken by the current generation will ensure that future generations can meet their economic and environmental needs in this context we assess the role of technology in steering agriculture along a more sustainable path from the agricultural sector s perspective this requires an optimal investment plan for a nation s stock of environmental assets that accounts for an intergenerational fulfillment of sustainability s dual goals 1 satisfying food and fiber needs at reasonable costs to consumers and 2 providing environmental service flows in reviewing agricultural indicators to assess the nation s performance in meeting these goals we find productivity growth has increased while rates of soil erosion wetland conversion and pesticide application have declined however individuals continue to demand more environmental services while private markets undersupply environmental services the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet food and fiber and environmental service demands partially depends on the availability and adoption of new technology several market impediments explain the undersupply of sustainable technologies 1 firms cannot fully appropriate rents from technology development 2 success may vary with farm structure 3 the heterogeneity of the resource base influences adoption and 4 farmers cannot capture the benefits of environmental services to address these market failures sustainable agriculture policy should 1 support research and development in sustainable technologies and provide incentives to encourage adoption 2 ensure that conservation efforts reflect the efficient and sustainable allocation of environmental assets and 3 legitimize markets for foods produced under more sustainable practices

macroanalysis of the economic and environmental impacts of a 2005 2025 european union bioenergy policy using the gtap model and life cycle assessment abstract this paper describes a new tool to assess the medium and long term economic and environmental impacts of large scale policies the approach macro life cycle assessment m lca is based on life cycle assessment methodology and includes additional elements to model economic externalities and the temporal evolution of background parameters the general equilibrium model gtap was therefore used to simulate the economic consequences of policies in a dynamic framework representing the temporal evolution of macroeconomic and technological parameters environmental impacts expressed via four indicators human health ecosystems global warming and natural resources are computed according to policy life cycle and its indirect economic consequences in order to illustrate the approach two 2005 2025 european union eu energy policies were compared using m lca the first policy the bioenergy policy aims to significantly increase energy generation from biomass and reduce eu energy demand for coal the second policy the baseline policy is a business as usual policy where year 2000 energy policies are extended to 2025 results show that compared to the baseline policy the bioenergy policy generates fewer impacts on three of the four environmental indicators human health global warming and natural resources at the world and eu scales though the results may differ significantly at a regional level the results also highlight the key contribution of economic growth to the total environmental impacts computed for the 2005 2025 period a comparison of the results with a more conventional consequential lca approach illustrates the benefits of m lca when modeling the indirect environmental impacts of large scale policies the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicates that the method is quite robust however its robustness must still be evaluated based on the sensitivity and uncertainty of additional parameters including the evolution of economic growth

why my mother never threw anything out the effect of product freshness on consumption this research focuses on a pervasive but largely unexamined product attribute freshness date to shed light on how and why its influence on the consumption of perishable products changes with product ownership drawing on recent research on the endowment effect we demonstrate that even when the differential costs implicit in ownership are controlled for consumers are more likely to actually consume a product past its freshness date when they own it than when they do not moreover this ownership based increase in consumption is accompanied by lower estimates by consumers of their likelihood of getting sick from consuming the product past its freshness date these outcomes are driven in turn by consumers ownership based susceptibility to engage in selective and confirmatory testing of the hypothesis that the product past its freshness date is consumption worthy i e approach goal rather than the alternate default hypothesis that it is not consumption worthy i e avoidance goal

the impact of rising ethanol production on the brazilian market for basic food commodities an econometric assessment the controversial debate on the impacts of rising biofuel production on food commodity markets is of great policy relevance in brazil this paper contributes to the discussion by applying panel data regression models with fixed effects using ols our dataset comprises annual production harvested area data for sugar ethanol and five other staple commodities ranging from 1981 to 2009 for 24 brazilian states our results indicate that rising ethanol production exerts statistically significant positive impacts on sugarcane negative impacts on rice beans and soybeans acreage but no statistically significant effect on the areas for corn and manioc the negative impacts on commodities acreage have implications for the associated prices ceteris paribus rising ethanol production puts some upward pressure on the prices for rice beans and soybeans however the economic implication of these direct land use effects is attenuated due to the moderate scale of any effect

incentives precision technology and environmental protection abstract this paper calls for a reevaluation of the pollution problem in order to devise efficient strategies for its control it contends that a fundamental cause of pollution is inefficiency in input use during the production process this inefficiency manifests itself as input waste and polluting residues precision technologies can increase the effectiveness of inputs used in production and reduce pollution generation despite their potential economic and ecological benefits adoption of precision technologies has been slow this paper presents a conceptual framework to identify and analyze the specific factors that affect their diffusion among microunits these include various heterogeneous characteristics of microunits prices which do not reflect the relevant scarcities due to distortionary regulatory policies and lack of institutional mechanisms for efficient allocation of inputs and outputs it rationalizes the observed variations in the appropriate choice of technology across microunits and argues for the need to broaden the range of incentive based instruments for environmental protection beyond pollution taxes

the demand for ethanol as a gasoline substitute abstract this paper estimates household preferences for ethanol e85 as a gasoline e10 substitute i develop a theoretical model linking the shape of the ethanol demand curve to the underlying distribution among households of willingness to pay for ethanol i estimate the model using instrumental variables techniques and data from many retail fueling stations i find that a 0 10 per gallon increase in ethanol s price relative to gasoline leads to a 12 16 decrease in the quantity of ethanol demanded my findings imply that preferences for ethanol are heterogeneous and that a substantial fraction of households are willing to pay a premium for the fuel this reduces substantially the simulated efficiency cost of an ethanol content standard since some households choose ethanol without large subsidies mitigating deadweight losses

sustainable and integrated bioenergy assessment for latin america caribbean and africa sibyl lacaf the path from feasibility to acceptability abstract uncertainties in evaluating bioenergy projects have lead policymakers to adopt a restrictive approach or even refuse to evaluate projects when the available information is limited or a clear perception of its benefits and impact is lacking indeed despite its potential advantages a bioenergy system poses several conceptual and operational challenges for academic as well as practical scrutiny because the inherent relationship and the intersection of areas related to energy production and agricultural activity requires a deeply integrated assessment the aim of this paper is to review the available works in this field and propose an approach for supporting policymakers in the taking decision process of deploying sustainable bioenergy systems the sibyl lacaf framework provides a comprehensive framework for addressing the inherent complexity of the subject and its sustainability and acceptability as part of the evaluation process with this approach different and complementary evaluation methods are reviewed and set in a logical and sequential structure to draw a group of indicators used for assessing a given project with the help of a strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats swot matrix when acceptability is identified as an issue a public consultation and communication pc c scheme can complement this process the suggested application for mozambique indicate that an acceptable outcome is possible even when considering the data requirements and constraints of developing countries thus the potential of this integrated approach outweighs such limitations

forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in brazil by time series models 2006 2012 this article analysed scenarios for brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012 the results show that if the country s gdp sustains a 4 6 a year growth domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25 16 billion liters in this period which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters at a lower gdp growth of 1 22 a year gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in brazil would be no higher than 18 32 billion liters contrary to the current situation forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in brazil the former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex fuel cars successfully introduced in the country at 2003 flex cars allow brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price

brownfield entry in emerging markets this paper focuses on the brown field entry mode as a special case of acquisition in which the resources transferred by the investor dominate over those provided by the acquired firm we see this mode as having particular relevance for entry strategies in emerging markets the choice of entry mode is analyzed on the basis of a framework utilizing both resource based and transaction cost theories the resource requirements have to be matched with resources available to the investor through an acquired firm and the decision has to account for the costs of acquiring and integrating the resources

developing a sustainability framework for the assessment of bioenergy systems the potential for biomass to contribute to energy supply in a low carbon economy is well recognised however for the sector to contribute fully to sustainable development in the uk specific exploitation routes must meet the three sets of criteria usually recognised as representing the tests for sustainability economic viability in the market and fiscal framework within which the supply chain operates environmental performance including but not limited to low carbon dioxide emissions over the complete fuel cycle and social acceptability with the benefits of using biomass recognised as outweighing any negative social impacts this paper describes an approach to developing a methodology to establish a sustainability framework for the assessment of bioenergy systems to provide practical advice for policy makers planners and the bioenergy industry and thus to support policy development and bioenergy deployment at different scales the approach uses multi criteria decision analysis mcda and decision conferencing to explore how such a process is able to integrate and reconcile the interests and concerns of diverse stakeholder groups

technology and ecological economics promethean technology pandorian potential abstract in considering social economic and ecological impacts of new technologies it is essential to start from an understanding of human nature this paper explores this issue drawing out some implications for ecological and neoclassical economics the paper presents two key arguments first we argue that there is a growing tension between our evolved human nature and social structures and our emerging technological prowess modern technologies give us increasing power to manipulate the very axes of nature space time energy matter and life technologies are now so powerful they give us abilities our ancestors would consider godlike the question is posed are humans ready to wield the power of the gods we have the knowledge but do we have the wisdom the myth of prometheus and pandora is considered as a metaphor for the interaction between technology nature and universal aspects of human nature developed over eons of evolution second we argue that even a technologically optimistic scenario employed by some economists may not actually deliver utopian outcomes with technological advancement and diffusion there is a technological trickle down effect whereby potent technologies once available only to governments and powerful elites become available to greater numbers of groups and individuals the more accessible a technology the more likely its social and ecological impacts will be shaped by the full range and extremes of human nature these issues have implications for the development and regulation of promethean technologies such as nuclear energy genetic engineering and nanotechnology technologies with unprecedented power and reach through nature development and diffusion of such technologies may also have implications for the ethics of the social structure of society

biofuel developments in mozambique update and analysis of policy potential and reality abstract climate change rising oil prices and concerns about future energy supplies have contributed to a growing interest in using biomass for energy purposes several studies have highlighted the biophysical potential of biofuel production on the african continent and analysts see mozambique as one of the most promising african countries favorable growing conditions and the availability of land water and labor are mentioned as major drivers behind this potential moreover the potential of biofuel production to generate socio economic benefits is reflected in the government s policy objectives for the development of the sector such as reducing fuel import dependency and creating rural employment this article provides an overview of biofuel developments in mozambique and explores to what extent reality matches the suggested potential in the country we conclude that biofuel developments mainly take place in areas near good infrastructure processing and storage facilities where there is skilled labor available and access to services and goods moreover our analysis shows the need to timely harmonize current trends in biofuel developments with the government s policy objectives as the majority of existing and planned projects are not focusing on remote rural areas and in absence of domestic markets principally target external markets

focusing on the forgone how value can appear so different to buyers and sellers we propose that buying and selling price estimates reflect a focus on what the consumer forgoes in the potential exchange and that this notion offers insight into the well known difference between those two types of value assessment buyers and sellers differ not simply in their valuation of the same item but also in how they assess the value buyers tend to focus on their sentiment toward what they forgo typically the expenditure and buying prices are thus heavily influenced by variables such as salient reference prices by the same token sellers tend to focus on their sentiment toward surrendering the item and selling prices are hence more heavily influenced by variables such as benefits of possessing the item four studies examining buying and selling price estimates of tickets for national collegiate athletic association basketball games offer consistent support for these ideas the studies show that naturally occurring differences among respondents in attitudes relating to the tickets that sellers forgo e g significance of the game corresponded more closely to variation in selling prices than in buying prices conversely measures relating to the expenditure e g respondents concern with money corresponded more closely to buying prices than to selling prices using controlled manipulations we then showed that changes in aspects relating to the game e g expected climate in the stadium affected selling prices more than buying prices but changes relating to the expenditure e g list price of the ticket influenced buying prices more than selling prices we also showed that drawing attention to the benefits of possessing a ticket before asking for the price estimates influenced buying prices more than selling prices supporting our claim that otherwise these benefits are naturally more salient to sellers than buyers similarly drawing attention to alternative uses of money before asking for price estimates influenced selling prices more than buying prices

modelling approaches for consequential life cycle assessment c lca of bioenergy critical review and proposed framework for biogas production abstract conventional life cycle inventories lcis are static models not considering any mechanism of revenue maximisation and price equilibrium under external constraints an additional demand of a given commodity irrespective of the amount can always be supplied by the average supplier under fully elastic market assumption this constitutes a recognised limitation for the application of lca to the assessment of the environmental consequences of changes applied to complex systems like agro systems in the so called consequential lci c lci the relationships between the activities and processes of a life cycle are no longer seen as essentially technical connections based on average data instead the determining socio economic mechanisms are considered via market information and eventually economic models partial or computable general equilibrium the practical implementation of c lci is however still obscure to many practitioners and the complementarities and overlaps between the different c lci modelling approaches have not been completely clarified so far this paper aims at filling this gap the first part of the paper provides a survey of a number of applications using different equilibrium models afterwards we critically review the main variables and parameters supporting the definition and implementation of the c lci modelling approaches in the last part of the paper we propose a methodology to integrate economic modelling and lca in order to perform a c lca of biogas production specifically addressing the indirect land use change iluc issue finally we describe the application of this methodology to a case study dealing with the production of biogas in luxembourg

household energy choices and fuelwood consumption an econometric approach using french data this study proposes an econometric analysis of household fuelwood demand in france the choice concerning the energy used for heating is modeled stressing the combination between one type of energy used as a main source and another one used as a back up this endogenous decision has an impact on fuelwood consumption and is taken into account to avoid biased estimates of price and income elasticities the results show that the choice of energy mix is determined by the income and the socio economic characteristics of households and that fuelwood consumption is price sensitive in the case where wood is the main source of energy

the endowment effect rose tinted and dark tinted glasses the endowment effect predicted by prospect theory is a robust finding in behavioral decision theory extending recent examinations of the underlying processes we present evidence for differential perceptions of the traded item with sellers focusing more on positive features and less on negative features relative to buyers in experiment 1 sellers and buyers access information of differing valence in a free recall task experiment 2 utilizes error rates and response latencies to demonstrate systematic and differing patterns of errors and biases in reactions to valenced stimuli experiment 3 utilizes contrast effects to manipulate these foci thereby moderating the endowment effect

sustainability criteria for bioenergy systems results from an expert survey abstract environmental impacts associated with the use of fossil fuels rising prices potential limitations in supply and concerns about regional and national security are driving the development and use of biomass for bioenergy biofuels and bioproducts however the use of biomass does not automatically imply that its production conversion and use are sustainable in order to operationalize sustainability assessments of biomass systems it is crucial to identify critical criteria but keep their number and measurement at a manageable level the selection of these criteria can vary depending on individual s expertise geographical region where they work and spatial scale they are focused on no clear consensus has yet emerged on what experts consider as critical indicators of sustainability objectives of this paper were to analyze how key experts perceive the 35 sustainability criteria for bioenergy found in emerging sustainability assessment frameworks and to identify levels of agreement and uncertainty experts were asked to rate the criteria for attributes of relevance practicality reliability and importance perceptions of the importance of the 35 criteria varied among the experts surveyed only two criteria energy balance and greenhouse gas balance were perceived as critical by more than half of the respondents social criteria and locally applied criteria were generally ranked low for all four attributes seven of the 12 criteria scored as most important focused on environmental issues four were social and only one was economic of the 12 most important criteria seven were ranked low in practicality and reliability indicating that mechanisms to assess a number of important criteria need to be developed the spatial scale the experts worked at and their profession explained most of the differences in importance ranking between experts while regional focus had minimal effect criteria that were ranked low for importance were characterized by a lack of consensus suggesting the need for further debate regarding their inclusion in sustainability assessments outcomes of the survey provide a foundation for further discussions and development of sustainability assessments for bioenergy systems and may also provide a basis for assessing individual bioenergy projects within their specific geographic ecological societal and technological context and scale