from long term targets to cumulative emission pathways reframing uk climate policy abstract in march 2007 the eu reaffirmed its commitment to making its fair contribution to global mean surface temperatures not exceeding 2 c above pre industrial levels in line with this the uk government has laid legal foundations for an emissions cut of 60 by 2050 whilst 2050 reductions dominate the target setting agenda long term targets do not have a scientific basis and are leading to dangerously misguided policies if a policy is to be scientifically credible it must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emissions pathways this analysis of current uk climate policy illustrates how following the correlation trail from global temperature thresholds to national emissions pathways fundamentally reframes the uk s targets considering cumulative emissions carbon cycle feedbacks and the omission of emissions from international transport dramatically increases both the scale and immediacy with which emissions need to be reduced for example within the uk 6 9 p a reductions beginning as early as 2012 the implications of this are stark society can no longer await the decadal timeframes necessary for a transition to low carbon energy supply if the 2 c threshold is to maintain any meaningful currency industrialised nations have little option but to radically and urgently curtail their demand for energy

clearing and pricing for coordinated gas and electricity day ahead markets considering wind power uncertainty natural gas and electricity systems are becoming increasingly strongly coupled gas fired units gfus are replacing retired coal plants and the power systems are more dependent on the flexibilities provided by gfus the gfus power generation capability relies on the availability of gas resources which is jointly determined by the capacity of gas suppliers and pipeline networks however the gas and electricity markets are operated separately consequently the gfus are forced to represent the entire power system to bid on the gas market they must make forecasts regarding future gas consumption and bear the risk of improper contracts or being unable to meet generation schedules due to occasional insufficient gas supply when facing larger shares of renewable energies and more frequent gas network congestions the current market framework is particularly unreliable and inefficient as well as economically unfriendly to the investors of the gfu assets in this paper we try to develop a framework that can combine the two markets by properly pricing the scarce resources e g gas transmission capacity the joint market can help us to allocate the resources more efficiently while satisfying the demands moreover a more forward looking day ahead market clearing framework is presented by considering the uncertainty brought by renewable energies the formulation and algorithm of the proposed joint market model will be presented as are some case studies

modeling technology adoptions for sustainable development under increasing returns uncertainty and heterogeneous agents abstract this paper presents a stylized model of technology adoptions for sustainable development under the three potentially most important stylized facts increasing returns to adoption uncertainty and heterogeneous agents following diverse technology development and adoption strategies the stylized model deals with three technologies and two heterogeneous agents a risk taking one and a risk averse one interactions between the two agents include trade in resources and goods and technological spillover free riding and technology trade with the two heterogeneous agents we run optimizations to minimize their aggregated costs in order to find out what rational behaviors are under different assumptions if the two agents are somehow cooperative by considering uncertain carbon taxes the model also addresses environmental issues as potential driving forces for technology adoptions

equilibrium of interdependent gas and electricity markets with marginal price based bilateral energy trading the increasing interdependencies between natural gas systems and power systems create new business opportunities in coupled energy distribution markets this paper studies the marginal price based bilateral energy trading on the equilibrium of coupled natural gas and electricity distribution markets convex relaxation is employed to solve a multiperiod optimal power flow problem which is used to clear the electricity market a successive second order cone programming approach is utilized to solve a multiperiod optimal gas flow problem which is used to clear the gas market in addition the line pack effect in the gas network is considered which can offer storage capacity and provide extra operation flexibility for both networks in both problems locational marginal energy prices are recovered from the lagrangian multipliers associated with nodal balancing equations furthermore a best response decomposition algorithm is developed to identify the equilibrium of the coupled energy markets with bilateral gas and electricity trading which leverages the computational superiority of socps cases studies on two test systems validate the proposed methodology

industrialization electricity consumption and co2 emissions in bangladesh this paper investigates the relationship between industrialization electricity consumption and co2 emissions in case of bangladesh using quarter frequency data over the period of 1975 2010 the ar

multi stage stochastic programming with nonanticipativity constraints for expansion of combined power and natural gas systems a novel multi stage stochastic programming model is proposed for the expansion coplanning of gas and power networks considering the uncertainties in net load demand meanwhile the nonanticipativity constraints are taken into account to guarantee the decisions should only depend on the information of realized uncertainties up to the present stage compared with the traditional two stage stochastic programming model the proposed multi stage stochastic programming model yields sequential investment decisions with the uncertainties revealed gradually over time such that the investment decisions are capable of keeping future options open and can shift from never be changed decisions to a flexible wait and see decisions the test on three systems shows the effectiveness of the proposed multi stage stochastic programming model

optimizing systematic technology adoption with heterogeneous agents the traditional operational optimization models of systematic technology adoption commonly assume the existence of a global social planner and ignore the existence of heterogeneous decision makers who interact with each other this paper develops a stylized or conceptual optimization model of systematic technology adoption with heterogeneous agents i e decision makers and uncertain technological learning each agent attempts to identify optimal solutions to adopting technologies for a portion of the entire system the agents in the model have different foresight and different risk attitudes and interact with one another in terms of technological spillover this paper first illustrates that although a well recalibrated representative model can perform well enough when the interest is placed on aggregate variables it could react to a policy a carbon tax in this paper differently from the multi agent model then this paper explores how the agents heterogeneities and interactions affect the optimal solutions of systematic technology adoption the main findings of the study are that 1 the existence of multiple agents implies a slower adoption of advanced technologies in the entire system than assuming the existence of a global social planner 2 with homogeneous agents technological spillover tends to enhance the lock in effect on previous technologies and 3 with heterogeneous agents even a small technological spillover rate can significantly accelerate the adoption of the advanced technology

market clearing with stochastic security part i formulation the first of this two paper series formulates a stochastic security constrained multi period electricity market clearing problem with unit commitment the stochastic security criterion accounts for a pre selected set of random generator and line outages with known historical failure rates and involuntary load shedding as optimization variables unlike the classical deterministic reserve constrained unit commitment here the reserve services are determined by economically penalizing the operation of the market by the expected load not served the proposed formulation is a stochastic programming problem that optimizes concurrently with the pre contingency social welfare the expected operating costs associated with the deployment of the reserves following the contingencies this stochastic programming formulation is solved in the second companion paper using mixed integer linear programming methods two cases are presented a small transmission constrained three bus network scheduled over a horizon of four hours and the ieee reliability test system scheduled over 24 h the impact on the resulting generation and reserve schedules of transmission constraints and generation ramp limits of demand side reserve of the value of load not served and of the constitution of the pre selected set of contingencies are assessed

the relationship between gdp and electricity consumption in 10 asian countries the purpose of this study is to estimate the relationships between gdp and electricity consumption in 10 newly industrializing and developing asian countries using both single data sets and panel data procedures the empirical results from single data set indicate that the causality directions in the 10 asian countries are mixed while there is a uni directional short run causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption and a bi directional long run causality between electricity consumption and economic growth if the panel data procedure is implemented these empirical findings imply that electricity conservation policies through both rationalizing the electricity supply efficiency improvement to avoid the wastage of electricity and managing demand side to reduce the electricity consumption without affecting the end user benefits could be initiated without adverse effect on economic growth the findings on the long run relationship indicate that a sufficiently large supply of electricity can ensure that a higher level of economic growth

the causality relationship between energy consumption and gdp in g 11 countries revisited abstract this paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development that is is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries a new granger non causality testing procedure developed by toda and yamamoto 1995 journal of econometrics 66 225 250 is applied to re investigate the relationship if any between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries the results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other except in the case of the united kingdom germany and sweden where a neutral relationship is found bi directional causality in the united states and uni directional running from energy consumption to gdp in canada belgium the netherlands and switzerland are found this indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries further the causality relationship appears to be uni directional but reversed for france italy and japan which implies that in these three countries energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

a stochastic electricity market clearing formulation with consistent pricing properties we argue that deterministic market clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day ahead and expected real time prices that bias economic incentives we extend and analyze a previously proposed stochastic clearing formulation in which the social surplus function induces penalties between day ahead and real time quantities we prove that the formulation yields price bounded price distortions and we show that adding a similar penalty term to transmission flows and phase angles ensures boundedness throughout the network we prove that when the price distortions are zero day ahead quantities equal a quantile of their real time counterparts the undesired effects of price distortions suggest that stochastic settings provide significant benefits over deterministic ones that go beyond social surplus improvements we propose additional metrics to evaluate these benefits

a multiperiod generalized network flow model of the u s integrated energy system part i model description this paper is the first of a two part paper presenting a multiperiod generalized network flow model of the integrated energy system in the united states part i describes the modeling approach used to evaluate the economic efficiencies of the system wide energy flows from the coal and natural gas suppliers to the electric load centers under the proposed problem formulation fuel supply and electricity demand nodes are connected via a transportation network and the model is solved for the most efficient allocation of quantities and corresponding prices the methodology includes physical economic and environmental aspects that characterize the different networks part ii of this paper provides numerical results that demonstrate the application of the model

the locational determinants of direct investments among industrialized countries abstract market size and growth rate as well as tariff barriers have already been shown to influence u s direct investments in the eec the present paper enlarges the field of observation to all bilateral flows of direct investments among six industrialized countries the united states germany france the united kingdom the netherlands and belgium over the years 1969 1982 it also tests the impact of two other would be locational determinants of foreign direct investments namely unit labour costs and export flows moreover a new and alternative specification is put forward and tested which assumes that in the investment decision process foreign locations are in competition not only with each other but also with the home country of the investor

energy consumption real income and temporal causality results from a multi country study based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques abstract unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration i e long term equilibrium relationship between these variables may be used in testing granger causality based on the most recent johansen s multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non stationarity tests we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six asian economies india pakistan malaysia singapore indonesia and the philippines non rejection of cointegration between variables rules out granger non causality and imples at least one way of granger causality either unidirectional or bidirectionial secondly by using a dynamic vector error correction model we then analyse the direction of granger causation and hence the within sample granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables thirdly the relative strength of the causality is gauged through the dynamic variance decomposition technique by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own in the bivariate system results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties only relationships for three countries india pakistan and indonesia were cointegrated for these countries temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for india exactly the reverse for indonesia and mutual causality for pakistan the vdcs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in pakistan simple bivariate vector autoregressive models for the three non cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality significantly in either direction

interdependency of natural gas network and power system security this paper proposes an integrated model for assessing the impact of interdependency of electricity and natural gas networks on power system security the integrated model incorporates the natural gas network constraints into the optimal solution of security constrained unit commitment the natural gas network is modeled by daily and hourly limits on pipelines sub areas plants and generating units the application of fuel diversity e g generating units with fuel switching capability is presented as an effective peak shaving strategy for natural gas demand which could hedge price volatilities of natural gas and electric power the proposed model can be used by a vertically integrated utility for the commitment and dispatch of generating units and the allocation of natural gas for the next day utilization the proposed model can also be used for measuring the security of social services by modeling the interdependency of natural gas and electric power system infrastructures if the proposed model is used by gencos gas constraints will be submitted to electricity markets as energy constraints illustrative examples show the impact of natural gas supply infrastructure on the economic operation of a vertically integrated utility the examples also discuss the impact of generating units with fuel switching capability on the power system security when the supply of natural gas is limited

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from 11 sub sahara african countries abstract the paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for eleven countries in sub saharan africa using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds test the study finds that energy consumption is cointegrated with economic growth in cameroon cote d ivoire gambia ghana senegal sudan and zimbabwe moreover this test suggests that energy consumption has a significant positive long run impact on economic growth in ghana kenya senegal and sudan granger causality test based on vector error correction model vecm shows bi directional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for gambia ghana and senegal however granger causality test shows that economic growth granger causes energy consumption in sudan and zimbabwe the neutrality hypothesis is confirmed in respect of cameroon and cote d ivoire the same result of no causality was found for nigeria kenya and togo the result shows that each country should formulate appropriate energy conservation policies taking into cognizance of her peculiar condition

energy consumption and gdp causality relationship in g 7 countries and emerging markets abstract the causality relationship between energy consumption and income is a well studied topic in energy economics this paper studies the time series properties of energy consumption and gdp and reexamines the causality relationship between the two series in the top 10 emerging markets excluding china due to lack of data and g 7 countries we discover bi directional causality in argentina causality running from gdp to energy consumption in italy and korea and from energy consumption to gdp in turkey france germany and japan hence energy conservation may harm economic growth in the last four countries

the impact of electricity supply on economic growth in sri lanka abstract yang energy econ 22 2000 309 has found a bi directional causal relationship between gross domestic product and electricity consumption in taiwan roc this study applies yang s model to examine the impact of electricity supply on economic growth in sri lanka morimoto and hope an extended cba model of hydro projects in sri lanka 2001 have found that the expected increase in economic output due to increased electricity supply parameter eo plays a crucial role in their cost benefit analysis model this study shows that the application of yang s regression analysis is one possible approach to estimate a better range for the parameter eo the estimated figure is that an extra output of rs 88 000 137 000 us1120 1740 for every 1 mw h increase in electricity supply

disaggregated energy consumption and gdp in taiwan a threshold co integration analysis abstract energy consumption growth is much higher than economic growth for taiwan in recent years worsening its energy efficiency this paper provides a solid explanation by examining the equilibrium relationship between gdp and disaggregated energy consumption under a non linear framework the threshold co integration test developed with asymmetric dynamic adjusting processes proposed by hansen and seo hansen b e seo b 2002 testing for two regime threshold cointegration in vector error correction models journal of econometrics 110 293 318 is applied non linear co integrations between gdp and disaggregated energy consumptions are confirmed except for oil consumption the two regime vector error correction models vecm show that the adjustment process of energy consumption toward equilibrium is highly persistent when an appropriately threshold is reached there is mean reverting behavior when the threshold is reached making aggregate and disaggregated energy consumptions grow faster than gdp in taiwan

an investigation of co integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in taiwan applying hsiao a version of the granger causality method this paper examines the causality between energy and gnp and energy and employment by applying recently developed techniques of co integration and hsiao s version of the granger causality to taiwanese data for the 1955 1993 period the phillips perron tests reveal that the series with the exception of gnp are not stationary and therefore differencing is performed to secure stationarity the study finds causality running from gdp to energy consumption without feedback in taiwan it is also found that causality runs from gdp to energy but not vice versa

energy use exports imports and gdp new evidence from the oecd countries this paper aims to investigate the relationship between energy use gdp energy use exports trade and energy use imports on aggregate level in the oecd countries while the energy use growth nexus is widely examined in the literature studies on the energy use trade nexus are very scarce thus this study also serves to fill this gap by presenting a new research on the oecd countries we employ the panel cointegration technique and use the granger representation theorem to examine the presence of long run relationship and the causality between pairs of variables to investigate the presence of causality several tests developed by canning and pedroni 2008 are used we find that the pairs of energy use gdp energy use exports and energy use imports are cointegrated and there is two way granger causality between each pairs we also estimate the long run elasticities by employing panel dynamic ordinary least squares the results suggest that the sign of long run elasticity is positive for all pairs particularly 1 increase in gdp export and import causes almost 0 32 0 21 and 0 16 increase in energy use respectively

electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in portugal using cointegration and causality approaches the aim of this paper is to re examine the relationship between electricity consumption economic growth and employment in portugal using the cointegration and granger causality frameworks this study covers the sample period from 1971 to 2009 we examine the presence of a long run equilibrium relationship using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within the unrestricted error correction model uecm moreover we examine the direction of causality between electricity consumption economic growth and employment in portugal using the granger causality test within the vector error correction model vecm as a summary of the empirical findings we find that electricity consumption economic growth and employment in portugal are cointegrated and there is bi directional granger causality between the three variables in the long run with the exception of the granger causality between electricity consumption and economic growth the rest of the variables are also bi directional granger causality in the short run furthermore we find that there is unidirectional granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption but no evidence of reversal causality

gas electricity coordination in competitive markets under renewable energy uncertainty as climate concerns low natural gas prices and renewable technologies increase the electric power sector s dependence on natural gas fired power plants operational and investment models for gas and electric power systems will need to incorporate the interdependencies between these two systems to accurately capture the impacts of one on the other currently few hybrid gas electricity models exist this paper reviews the state of the art for hybrid gas electricity models and presents a new model and case study to illustrate a few potential coupling effects between gas and electric power systems specifically the proposed model analyzes the optimal operation of gas fired power plants in a competitive electricity market taking into consideration gas purchases gas capacity contracting and residual demand uncertainty for the generation company due to renewable energy sources

double sided auction mechanism design in electricity based on maximizing social welfare an efficient electricity double sided auction mechanism should control market power and enhance the social welfare of the electricity market based on this goal the paper designs a new double sided auction mechanism in the new mechanism the social welfare contribution of each participant plays a pivotal role because this contribution is the critical factor in market clearing payment settling and transaction matching rules in particular each winner of the auction can gain transfer payments according to his contribution to social welfare in the electricity market and this gives the mechanism the ability to control the market power of some participants at the same time this mechanism ensures that the market organizer balances his budget we then conduct a theoretical and empirical analysis based on the spanish electricity market both of the results show that compared to the uniform pricing mechanism the new mechanism can reduce market power of participants and enhance the social welfare of the electricity market

pricing electricity through a stochastic non convex market clearing model this paper proposes a pricing scheme for the day ahead market in power systems with a large percentage of renewable stochastic production to clear the day ahead market instead of a simplistic deterministic model we use a two stage stochastic programming model that embodies a prognosis of future operating conditions non convexities due to start up costs and the on off status of generators and their minimum power outputs are properly taken into account our goal is to obtain uniform day ahead clearing prices that deviate in the least possible manner from marginal prices and that allow producers to recover their costs without uplifts the proposed methodology is illustrated using a simple example and a realistic case study

does financial development increase energy consumption the role of industrialization and urbanization in tunisia this paper assesses the relationship among energy consumption financial development economic growth industrialization and urbanization in tunisia from 1971 to 2008 the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and granger causality tests is employed for the analysis the result confirms the existence of long run relationship among energy consumption economic growth financial development industrialization and urbanization in tunisia long run bidirectional causalities are found between financial development and energy consumption financial development and industrialization and industrialization and energy consumption hence sound and developed financial system that can attract investors boost the stock market and improve the efficiency of economic activities should be encouraged in the country nevertheless promoting industrialization and urbanization can never be left out from the process of development we add light to policy makers with the role of financial development industrialization and urbanization in the process of economic development

the role of natural gas consumption and trade in tunisia s output this paper examines the impact of natural gas consumption real gross fixed capital formation and trade on the real gdp in case of tunisia over the period of 1980 2010 we used auto regressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach to test the existence of long run relationship between the variables the vector error correction method vecm granger approach is applied to test the direction of causal relation between the series our findings indicate the existence of long run relationship among the variables natural gas consumption real gross fixed capital formation and trade add in economic growth natural gas consumption real gross fixed capital formation and real trade granger cause real gdp these findings open up new insights for policy makers to formulate a comprehensive energy policy to sustain economic growth for long run

towards a low carbon economy coping with technological bifurcations with a carbon tax abstract technological learning is understood as an endogenous mechanism for the diffusion of advanced clean energy technologies technological learning is quite uncertain previous research showed that an optimization model with uncertain technological learning could generate technological bifurcations various local optimal solutions of technology development strategies with very similar total costs but different environmental impacts with a simplified energy system optimization model this paper explores technological bifurcations and the effect of a carbon tax on the development and diffusion of new energy technologies with a three stage analysis the main findings of this paper are 1 that technological learning instead of its uncertainty is an essential mechanism for technological bifurcations and 2 a carbon tax can reduce carbon emission but not necessarily technological bifurcations an implication from these findings is that with a carbon tax there still could be potential for other policy interventions to reduce carbon emissions without much additional cost

residential electricity demand dynamics in turkey abstract this article provides fresh empirical evidences for the income and price elasticies of the residential energy demand both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1968 2005 using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration the computed elasticities of income and price are consistent with the previous studies and as expected the long run elasticities are greater than the short run elasticities an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented among residential electricity income price and urbanization in the long run causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income price and urbanization to residential energy but the short run causality tests are inconclusive the parameter stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the residential energy demand function are tested the results of these tests display a stable pattern

natural gas consumption and economic growth in pakistan abstract natural gas is a dominant fuel in pakistan it offers the cheapest and a cleaner alternative source of energy this paper examines the relationship of natural gas consumption and economic growth in pakistan we include capital labor and exports in the model with multivariate framework the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration and innovative accounting approach are employed to investigate the dynamic causality relationships among the variables we find the existence of long run relationship among the variables natural gas consumption capital labor and exports are positively affecting economic growth in pakistan furthermore we support the natural gas consumption led growth hypothesis and suggest that natural gas conservation policies may retard economic growth

multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption exports and gdp evidence from a panel of middle eastern countries this paper examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption exports and gross domestic product gdp for a panel of middle eastern countries we find that for the panel as a whole there are statistically significant feedback effects between these variables a 1 per cent increase in electricity consumption increases gdp by 0 04 per cent a 1 per cent increase in exports increases gdp by 0 17 per cent and a 1 per cent increase in gdp generates a 0 95 per cent increase in electricity consumption the policy implications are that for the panel as a whole these countries should invest in electricity infrastructure and step up electricity conservation policies to avoid a reduction in electricity consumption adversely affecting economic growth further policy implications are that for the panel as a whole promoting exports particularly non oil exports is a means to promote economic growth and that expansion of exports can be realized without having adverse effects on energy conservation policies

market based generation and transmission planning with uncertainties this paper presents a stochastic coordination of generation and transmission expansion planning model in a competitive electricity market the monte carlo simulation method is applied to consider random outages of generating units and transmission lines as well as inaccuracies in the long term load forecasting the scenario reduction technique is introduced for reducing the computational burden of a large number of planning scenarios the proposed model assumes a capacity payment mechanism and a joint energy and transmission market for investors costs recovery the proposed approach simulates the decision making behavior of individual market participants and the iso it is an iterative process for simulating the interactions among gencos transcos and iso the iterative process might be terminated by the iso based on a pre specified stopping criterion the case studies illustrate the applications of proposed stochastic method in a coordinated generation and transmission planning problem when considering uncertainties

the dynamic links between energy consumption economic growth financial development and trade in china fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis abstract this study investigates the relationship between energy use and economic growth by incorporating financial development international trade and capital as important factors of production function in case of china over the period of 1971 2011 the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration was applied to examine long run relationship among the series while stationarity properties of the variables was tested by applying structural break test our empirical evidence confirmed long run relationship among the variables the results showed that energy use financial development capital exports imports and international trade have positive impact on economic growth the granger causality analysis revealed that unidirectional causal relationship running from energy use to economic growth financial development and energy use granger cause each other there is bidirectional causality between international trade and energy use the feedback relation exists between financial development and international trade there is also bidirectional causality exists between capital and energy demand financial development and economic growth and international trade and economic growth this paper makes significant contribution in energy economics and opens up new direction for policy makers to explore new and alternative sources of energy which would be helpful in meeting the rising demand of energy due to sustained rate of economic growth

time varying analysis of co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth nexus statistical experience in next 11 countries this paper detects the direction of causality among carbon dioxide co2 emissions energy consumption and economic growth in next 11 countries for the period 1972 2013 changes in economic energy and environmental policies as well as regulatory and technological advancement over time cause changes in the relationship among the variables we use a novel approach i e time varying granger causality and find that economic growth is the cause of co2 emissions in bangladesh and egypt economic growth causes energy consumption in the philippines turkey and vietnam but the feedback effect exists between energy consumption and economic growth in south korea in the cases of indonesia and turkey we find the unidirectional time varying granger causality running from economic growth to co2 emissions thus validates the existence of the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis which indicates that economic growth is achievable at the minimal cost of environment the paper gives new insights for policy makers to attain sustainable economic growth while maintaining long run environmental quality

a note on the causal relationship between energy and gdp in taiwan abstract this paper re examines the causality between energy consumption and gdp by using updated taiwan data for the period 1954 1997 as a secondary contribution we investigate the causal relationship between gdp and the aggregate as well as several disaggregate categories of energy consumption including coal oil natural gas and electricity applying granger s technique we find bidirectional causality between total energy consumption and gdp we find further that different directions of cause exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption

energy consumption and economic growth evidence from the commonwealth of independent states abstract this study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for eleven countries of the commonwealth of independent states over the period 1991 2005 within a multivariate panel data framework based on pedroni 1999 pedroni 2004 heterogeneous panel cointegration test and corresponding error correction model cointegration is present between real gdp energy consumption real gross fixed capital formation and labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant the results of the error correction model reveal the presence of unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth in the short run while bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the long run thus the results lend support for the feedback hypothesis associated with the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

the role of renewable energy to validate dynamic interaction between co2 emissions and gdp toward sustainable development in malaysia abstract closing the gap between economy activity and environmental quality is one of the solutions for reaching sustainable development in malaysia to do so the cubic polynomial functional form of ekc is utilized by accommodating renewable energy into the base of the ekc model and validating its hypothesis between co 2 emissions and gdp growth for the 1971 2015 period the f bounds vecm granger causality cusum and cusumsq tests are utilized the estimated results consistently show that the inverted n shaped ekc hypothesis holds in malaysia ceteris paribus the co 2 emissions will be declined when the gdp reach rm2841 9 billion in 2030 which is beyond the sample period the renewable energy has a negative significant effect on co 2 emissions and the direction of causality is running from co 2 emissions to renewable energy also the gdp growth will be the remedy for environmental pollution problems and that renewable energy is one of important elements to be considered for improving environmental quality a tighter and concentrated environmental policy is needed to direct the environment economic growth nexus toward a downward trend consequently these results may help malaysian policymakers to establish an energy policy that guarantees a balance between economic growth and environmental prosperity

energy economic growth and causality in developing countries a case study of tanzania and nigeria the debate about the precise role of energy in economic development remains contentious existing empirical studies have produced varying results some have argued the complementarity between energy and other factors of production and others have indicated that energy can be substituted for other factors of production commonly these studies have focused primarily on the developed countries one explanation being that supply constraints and price rigidities render any study on factor substitutions in developing countries meaningless however the functional relationship between energy consumption and income in developing countries is constantly investigated with the use of regression techniques while such techniques are useful in empirical analysis no mechanism exists for indicating causal directions between variables this limits the scope for policy analysis and prescription the need to identify causal direction between energy consumption and income growth in developing countries is overwhelming apart from providing further insights into the role of energy in economic development it provides policy analysts with a clearer understanding of the likely impact of energy supply constraints on economic growth this article examines the causal directions between energy consumption and economic growth proxied by gdp and gnp for nigeria and tanzania the results show a simultaneous causal relationship between energy and economic growth for both countries the implication being that unless energy supply constraints are eased economic growth and development will remain elusive to these countries given similar economic characteristics and profiling the same energy scenario for other developing countries our finding supports the view that energy plays a key role in economic development

strategic management of multi year natural gas contracts in electricity markets combined cycle gas turbine ccgt plants show some advantages such as better economies of scale or lower co2 emission rates in comparison to other technologies in addition due to their flexible operation ccgt plants are a useful support for the integration of the growing renewable energy installed capacity consequently during the last years ccgt plants have proliferated in electricity systems increasing the global demand of natural gas ng in order to guarantee the ng supply and to hedge the price volatility electricity generation companies gencos sign supply contracts with ng producers typically ng producers force long term contracts in order to recover their huge capital investments therefore gencos should optimize the exercise of the supply contracts in the long term scope in order to maximize their profits in the electricity market however the optimal exercise of the supply contracts on behalf of the gencos could be impeded because of possible bottlenecks in the ng system accordingly this paper proposes a methodology to incorporate both the characteristics of ng supply contracts and the congestions in the ng system in an electricity market model that could support the decision making process on behalf of the gencos a study case illustrates the methodology

the short and long run causality relationship among economic growth energy consumption and financial development evidence from south mediterranean countries smcs abstract this study aims at examining the short run and long run causal link between economic growth energy consumption and financial development by using data set of 6 smcs for the 1995 2015 periods the basic testing procedure requires four steps adf and pp unit root tests bound tests for co integration ardl approach and vecm method the results confirm cointegration between the variables it means that the long run relationship exists the short run causal relationships unidirectional exist at least once for each country except egypt the granger causality results for individual countries give mixed results these results urge for the attention of the policy makers in smcs to design a comprehensive energy conservation policy to minimize the consequences of massive energy consumption on economic growth by adding financial development

carbon emissions energy consumption and economic growth an aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the indian economy abstract this study investigates the long and short run relationships among carbon emissions energy consumption and economic growth in india at the aggregated and disaggregated levels during 1971 2014 the autoregressive distributed lag model is employed for the cointegration analyses and the vector error correction model is applied to determine the direction of causality between variables results show that a long run cointegration relationship exists and that the environmental kuznets curve is validated at the aggregated and disaggregated levels furthermore energy total energy gas oil electricity and coal consumption has a positive relationship with carbon emissions and a feedback effect exists between economic growth and carbon emissions thus energy efficient technologies should be used in domestic production to mitigate carbon emissions at the aggregated and disaggregated levels the present study provides policy makers with new directions in drafting comprehensive policies with lasting impacts on the economy energy consumption and environment towards sustainable development

investment in risky r d programs in the face of climate uncertainty we analyze how the socially optimal technology rd and that uncertainty in damages interacts with uncertainty in the returns to rd and r d that reduces the emissions to output ratio and argue that this is a good representation of r d into fossil fuel technologies for r d programs into non carbon technologies optimal investment is higher in riskier programs our empirical model indicates that the optimal investment in a risky program is about 3 1 2 times larger than in a program with certain returns for r d programs aimed at reducing emissions in fossil fuel based technologies our results show that qualitatively investment is higher in less risky programs under most uncertain damage scenarios our empirical model shows however that the risk profile of fossil fuel based r d programs generally has little quantitative impact on optimal investment the exception is that when the probability of a catastrophe inducing full abatement is very high investment is about twice as high in risky programs compared to programs with certain returns

the intra country distributional impact of policies to fight climate change a survey abstract in this paper we present a survey of distributional impact analysis of environmental policies with emphasis on taxes envisaged or implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ghg these policies usually aim at reducing ghg directly or indirectly however they can produce important changes in factor allocation relative prices in specific countries as well as on world markets when adopted by a large number of countries changes in welfare can be important for vulnerable groups of population in developing countries this survey reviews the evidence on the incidence of these policies in the process it shows that the computable general equilibrium cge microsimulation approach has not been fully exploited in the context

energy conservation policies growth and trade performance evidence of feedback hypothesis in pakistan this study investigates the relationship between energy consumption and trade openness in pakistan by using the annual time series data for the period of 1973 2011 our main results show i the presence of long run link between energy consumption and trade performance ii positive impact of gross domestic product exports and imports on energy consumption iii bidirectional causal relationship between exports and energy consumption and also be tween imports and energy demand and iv bidirectional causality between gross domestic product and energy consumption points to the presence of feedback hypothesis in pakistan we therefore note that energy conservation policies will reduce the trade performance which in turn leads to the decline in economic growth in pakistan the present study may guide policymakers in formulating a conclusive energy and trade policies for sustainable growth for long span of time

the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the asean countries abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among the association of south east asian nations asean 4 members namely indonesia malaysia singapore and thailand using modern time series techniques for the period 1971 2002 the results indicate that there is a bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia and singapore this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in the two countries however uni directional causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption in indonesia and thailand without any feedback effect thus electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects in the two countries

energy consumption and economic growth assessing the evidence from greece abstract this paper attempts to shed light into the empirical relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for greece 1960 1996 employing the vector error correction model estimation the vector specification includes energy consumption real gdp and price developments the latter taken to represent a measure of economic efficiency the empirical evidence suggests that there is a long run relationship between the three variables supporting the endogeneity of energy consumption and real output these findings have important policy implications since the adoption of suitable structural policies aiming at improving economic efficiency can induce energy conservation without impeding economic growth

electricity consumption and economic growth bounds and causality analyses of opec members this paper investigates the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for opec members the bounds test yields evidence of a long run relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for all opec members causality results suggest that economic growth is dependent on electricity consumption in five countries less dependent in three countries and independent in three countries because these countries do not necessarily share similar political and economic traits no single universal policy implication can be inferred from the results the disparities across these causality results therefore stress the importance of formulating causality explanations while taking into account the particularities of individual countries rather than blindly applying the conventional interpretations

electricity consumption and economic growth evidence from korea abstract this paper investigates the short and long run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in korea by using the co integration and error correction models it employs annual data covering the period 1970 2002 the overall results show that there exists bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption

transmission assets investment timing using net present value curves improvement and expansion of the transmission grid is still an unresolved issue in the new competitive environment in current electricity markets transmission lines have become assets that need financial instruments for investors who wish to ensure steady long term returns and to withstand short term market volatility the timing and the combination of new transmission investments is key to analyze their long term effects this paper presents the concept of net present value npv curve to estimate the best investment time for the investor where the curve is constructed by calculating the npvs resulting from the investment in successive years a specific contract model based on financial transmission rights ftr is used for the npv evaluation of transmission assets and the stochastic properties of all variables related to the investment market structure are considered the model is applied to the ieee 24 bus reliability test system rts showing the approach capabilities as a decision aid tool for transmission investors

adoption of an emerging infrastructure with uncertain technological learning and spatial reconfiguration abstract this paper develops a stylized or conceptual system optimization model to analyze the adoption of an emerging infrastructure associated with uncertain technological learning and spatial reconfigurations the model first assumes that the emerging infrastructure will be implemented for the entire system when it is adopted with the model this paper explores 1 how the emerging infrastructure s initial investment cost technological learning and its uncertainty market size and efficiency influence the adoption of the emerging infrastructure and 2 how the efficiency and investment cost of the associated technology which will be located in a different place with the adoption of the emerging infrastructure influence the adoption of the emerging infrastructure then this paper extends the model and explores whether it is a better solution to implement the emerging infrastructure for part of the distance from resource site to demand site if its efficiency is a function of the implemented distance with optimizations under three types of efficiency dynamics this paper finds that whether the emerging infrastructure should be implemented partly or entirely is not determined by the value of its efficiency but by the dynamics of its efficiency

a dynamic equilibrium of electricity consumption and gdp in hong kong an empirical investigation abstract public debates on electricity policy in hong kong focus on the regulation regime but seldom discuss the macroeconomic impact in this paper we use the novel dataset on electricity consumption and report the following findings 1 there is a long run equilibrium relationship between real gdp and electricity consumption 2 a one way causal effect exists from electricity consumption to real gdp 3 a significant adjustment process occurs when equilibrium is interrupted 4 there exists possible structural change in the relationship between electricity consumption and economic activities in 1990s

electricity consumption and economic growth evidence from turkey abstract this study investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real gdp in turkey during the period of 1950 2000 both of the series were found to be a stationary process around a structural break by the zivot and andrews test thus two different methodologies have been employed to test the granger non causality the dolado lutkepohl test using the vars in levels and the standard granger causality test using the detrended data both tests have yielded a strong evidence for unidirectional causality running from the electricity consumption to the income this implies that the supply of electricity is vitally important to meet the growing electricity consumption hence to sustain the economic growth in turkey

electricity consumption and economic growth in jamaica abstract this study examines the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in jamaica during 1970 86 a period of rapid increase in energy prices the results show that the aggregate demand for electricity is slightly income elastic electricity has a significant impact on economic growth the electricity intensity has increased over time residential demand is fairly income elastic commercial demand is price inelastic and the rate of adjustment is slow these results suggest that conservation policies could be ineffective therefore indigenous sources of electricity are important for jamaica to be less dependent on imported energy

electricity and natural gas interdependency comparison of two methodologies for coupling large market models within the european regulatory framework power generation growth based on natural gas fired power plants ngfpps has lead to increasing interactions between electric power and natural gas industries more companies are progressively and simultaneously participating as big players in both markets however each company has traditionally been settled in one side holding a particular competitive advantage electric power generation companies mainly know how to operate their generation assets whereas gas companies mainly know how to manage their gas supply contracts and make use of often regulated gas assets multi product energy companies have even created independent departments which decisions are usually taken uncoordinatedly in any case companies or departments usually support their decision making process in mathematical tools which represent each market with detail this paper presents two methodologies for coupling two interdependent electricity and gas market models formulated as optimization problems each methodology fulfills different department wishes the electricity perspective methodology maximizes electricity market profits after calculating equivalent gas contracts with the gas market model in contrast the gas perspective methodology minimizes gas operation costs after obtaining the relationship between the marginal revenue and the gas consumption with the electricity market model this coordinated solution would allow companies to obtain synergies resulting in a competitive advantage over other companies that operate uncoordinatedly in both markets

flexible transmission expansion planning with uncertainties in an electricity market deregulation of the electric power industry has introduced new uncertainties for market participants and made planning of transmission expansion more difficult more flexible transmission expansion plans are needed to cope with the increased risks in this paper a novel planning approach is proposed to meet the above challenge in our approach the planning process is modeled as a mixed integer nonlinear programming minlp problem so that conflicting objectives can be optimized simultaneously to minimize planning risks our method identifies several scenarios based on statistics and expert knowledge the most flexible expansion plan is selected as the plan that has least adaptation cost the proposed method is tested with the ieee 14 bus system promising results are obtained to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method

causality between trade openness and energy consumption what causes what in high middle and low income countries abstract this paper explores the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption using data of 91 high middle and low income countries the study covers the period of 1980 2010 we have applied panel cointegration to examine long run relationship between the variables the direction of causal relationship between trade openness is investigated by applying homogenous non causality homogenous causality and heterogeneous causality tests our variables are integrated at i 1 confirmed by time series and panel unit root tests and cointegration is found between trade openness and energy consumption the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption is inverted u shaped in high income countries but u shaped in middle and low income countries the homogenous and non homogenous causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between trade openness and energy consumption this paper opens up new insights for policy makers to design a comprehensive economic trade and policies for sustainable economic growth in long run following heterogeneous causality findings

strategic offering and equilibrium in coupled gas and electricity markets the wide integration of gas fired units and implementation of power to gas technologies bring increasing interdependence among the natural gas and electricity infrastructures this paper studies the equilibrium of the coupled gas and electricity markets which is driven by the strategic offering behaviors each producer endeavours to maximize its own profit by taking the market clearing process into consideration the market equilibrium can be obtained from an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints a special diagonalization algorithm is devised in which the unilateral equilibrium of the gas or electricity market is found in the inner loop given the rivals strategies the interactions of the two markets are tackled in the outer loop case studies on two test systems validate the proposed methodology

the impact of learning by doing on the timing and costs of co2 abatement abstract a particular ceiling on atmospheric co 2 concentrations can be maintained through a variety of emission pathways over the past decade there has been considerable debate over the characteristics of a least cost pathway some have suggested that a gradual departure from the emissions baseline will be the most cost effective because it reduces the pressure for premature retirement of the existing capital stock and it provides valuable time to develop low cost low carbon emitting substitutes others counter that a major flaw in analyses that support this line of reasoning is that they ignore learning by doing lbd in this paper we examine the impact of lbd on the timing and costs of emissions abatement with regard to timing we find that including learning by doing does not significantly alter the conclusions of previous studies that treated technology cost as exogenous the analysis supports the earlier conclusion that for a wide range of stabilization ceilings a gradual transition away from the no policy emissions baseline is preferable to one that requires substantial near term reductions we find that the major impact of including learning by doing is on the costs of emission abatement depending upon the sensitivity of costs to cumulative experience lbd can substantially reduce the overall costs of emissions abatement

long run determinant of korean economic growth empirical evidence from manufacturing this paper challenges the recent contrarian view that the phenomenal growth of east asian nics is fuelled mainly by the accumulation of production inputs not by tfp growth to appraise this view we investigated and re evaluated south korean manufacturing growth 1973 q1 1993 q4 using johansen s cointegrating analysis our results show that south korean manufacturing appears to have increasing returns to scale in production technology the learning by doing effect defined by lucas 1988 is empirically supported this effect appears to be observed as a long run determinant of south korean manufacturing growth consequently south korean manufacturing growth can be described by an endogenous economic growth model such as the lucas 1988 model contradicting the contrarian view

technological change and the timing of mitigation measures we use a coupled carbon cycle and energy systems engineering model to analyze the future time path of carbon emissions under an illustrative co2 concentration stabilization limit of 550 ppm our findings confirm the emission pattern as found by wre global emissions rise initially pass through stabilization in order to decline in the second half of the 21st century we show that for a given co2 concentration target emission trajectories within an intertemporal optimization framework depend mainly on two factors the discount rate and the representation of technological change as either static or dynamic we obtain a similar near term emission time path as wre when using a model with static technology and a discount rate of 7 we obtain a trajectory with lower emissions in the near term when using a lower discount rate and or treating technology dynamics endogenously in the model we briefly outline a model that endogenizes technological change through learning curves we then compare differences in emission trajectories between alternative model formulations of technological change they are sufficiently small as to be of secondary importance when compared to treating co2 concentration stabilization as an inter temporal optimization problem or not whereas our results confirm the computational results of wre we arrive nonetheless at different policy conclusions if long term emission reduction is the goal we cannot follow business as usual even in the short term action needs to start now action does not necessarily mean aggressive short term emission reductions but rather enhanced r d and technology demonstration efforts that stimulate technological learning these are the necessary preconditions that long term reduction targets can be met with improved technology and at costs lower than today we close by pointing out two further critical issues uncertainty and the possible mismatch between the world of economic models and that of climate policy

electricity consumption growth nexus the case of malaysia abstract the goal of this paper is to model the relationship between electricity consumption and real gross domestic product gdp for malaysia in a bivariate and multivariate framework we use time series data for the period 1971 2003 and apply the bounds testing approach to search for a long run relationship our results reveal that electricity consumption real gdp and price share a long run relationship the results of the autoregressive distributed lag ardl estimates of long run elasticity of electricity consumption on gdp are found to be around 0 7 and statistically significant finally in the short run the results of the causality test show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth in malaysia from these findings we conclude that malaysia is an energy dependent country leading us to draw some policy implications this paper adds support and validity thus reducing the policy makers concern on the ambiguity of the electricity and growth nexus in malaysia

electricity consumption and economic growth in india abstract this paper tries to examine the granger causality between electricity consumption per capita and gross domestic product gdp per capita for india using annual data covering the period 1950 51 to 1996 97 phillips perron tests reveal that both the series after logarithmic transformation are non stationary and individually integrated of order one this study finds the absence of long run equilibrium relationship among the variables but there exists unidirectional granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption without any feedback effect so electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects

energy consumption and economic growth the experience of african countries revisited abstract the aim of this paper is to re examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for seventeen african countries in a multivariate framework by including labor and capital as additional variables we apply the variance decomposition analysis due to pesaran and shin pesaran m h and shin y generalised impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models economics letters 1998 58 17 29 to evaluate how important is the causal impact of energy consumption on economic growth relative to labor and capital the results of our multivariate modified granger causality analysis due to toda and yamamoto toda h y and yamamoto t statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process journal of econometrics 1995 66 225 250 tend to reject the neutrality hypothesis for the energy income relationship in fifteen out of the seventeen countries in contrast results of our variance decomposition analyses show that in eleven out of the seventeen countries energy is no more than a contributing factor to output growth and not an important one when compared to capital and labor labor and capital are the most important factors in output growth in fifteen out of the seventeen countries however these results should be interpreted with care as they may not be sufficiently robust enough to support the inference that energy consumption plays a minor role in the economic growth of african countries

costs of reducing global carbon emissions po rojecting the costs of reducing carbon emissions is extremely important and exceedingly difficult such projections are an integral component of cost benefit analyses of alternative policies for example for the global climate policy analysis described by william nordhaus in this symposium moreover the nature of the climate change problem dictates that costs be incurred long before benefits can be realized or accurately measured consequently the political spotlight predictably focuses on the cost estimates whenever specific policy options are contemplated projecting the costs of reducing carbon emissions is difficult because many assumptions must be made about how the world will evolve over a very long period of time with and without a control program typically some of these assumptions like population growth are taken from outside sources other factors like the response of energy demand to changes in economic output or energy prices are the result of modeling the behavior of economic actors in response to exogenous stimuli considerable uncertainty exists about both the exogenous factors and the best way to model the behavioral responses the global nature of the climate change problem adds yet another complication to the cost analysis scientists have concluded that it is the global concentration of carbon in the atmosphere that influences climate moreover since carbon in the atmosphere gets mixed more or less uniformly emissions anywhere change concentrations everywhere but with a long lead time current global carbon emissions are estimated to be only about 4 percent of the stock of co2 in the atmosphere attributable to human activity and about

coordination between medium term generation planning and short term operation in electricity markets this paper analyzes the coordination between medium term generation planning and short term operation in electricity markets this coordination is particularly important from a practical point of view in order to guarantee that certain aspects of the operation that arise in the medium term level are explicitly taken into account limited energy resources and obligatory use resources three different approaches are proposed in order to guarantee that short term decisions made by a generation company are consistent with its operation objectives formulated from a medium term perspective these approaches make use of technical and economic signals to coordinate both time scopes primal information dual information and resource valuation functions this paper presents the main advantages and drawbacks of the three approaches and applies them to a case study that uses a conjectural variation based representation of the market

structural breaks energy consumption and economic growth revisited evidence from taiwan abstract this paper studies the stability between energy consumption and gdp for taiwan during 1954 2003 we use aggregate as well as various disaggregate data of energy consumption including coal oil gas and electricity to employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks our main findings are first though gas consumption seems to have structural breaks in the 1960s after considering the structural breaks the series is a stationary variable when taiwan adopted its expansionary export trade policy second we find that different directions of causality exist between gdp and various kinds of energy consumption the empirical result shows unanimously in the long run that energy acts as an engine of economic growth and that energy conservation may harm economic growth third the cointegration between energy consumption and gdp is unstable and some economic events may affect the stability overall we do find the structural breakpoints and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic incidents

further evidence on the trade energy consumption nexus in oecd countries abstract the previous literature on the impact of trade on energy consumption has yielded inconclusive results however recent studies provide evidence of a nonlinear relationship between trade and energy consumption unlike previous studies we employ a panel framework with allowance for heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence to investigate the trade energy consumption nexus for oecd countries for the period 1990 2015 our results show that the impact of trade on energy consumption exhibits an inverted u shaped pattern and the nonlinear relationship is robust to estimation methods on the other hand the results from linear specifications reveal the importance of cross sectional dependence in explaining the positive role of trade on energy consumption in addition these impacts are consistent across different measures of trade

an empirical analysis of electricity consumption in cyprus abstract the paper presents the first empirical analysis of electricity consumption in cyprus using annual data from 1960 to 2004 we have examined electricity use in the residential and the services sectors which are the fastest growing electricity consumers in the island and its interaction with income prices and the weather the analysis was performed with the aid of time series analysis techniques such as unit root tests with and without a structural break in levels cointegration tests vector error correction models granger causality tests and impulse response functions results show long term elasticities of electricity use above unity for income and of the order of 0 3 to 0 4 for prices in the short term electricity consumption is rather inelastic mostly affected by weather fluctuations granger causality tests confirm exogeneity of electricity prices and bidirectional causality between residential electricity consumption and private income the commercial sector is less elastic and reverts faster to equilibrium than the residential sector despite the relatively small sample size results reported here are quite robust and can be used for forecasts and policy analyses

technology adoption with limited foresight and uncertain technological learning most previous optimization models on technology adoption assume perfect foresight over the long term in reality decision makers do not have perfect foresight and the endogenous driving force of technology adoption is uncertain with a stylized optimization model this paper explores the adoption of a new technology its associated cost dynamics and technological bifurcations with limited foresight and uncertain technological learning the study shows that when modeling with limited foresight and technological learning 1 the longer the length of the decision period the earlier the adoption of a new technology and the value of a foresight can be amplified with a high learning rate however when the decision period is beyond a certain length further extending its length has little influence on adopting the new technology 2 with limited foresight decisions aiming at minimizing the total cost of each decision period will commonly result in a non optimal solution from the perspective of the entire decision horizon and 3 the range of technological bifurcation is much larger than that with perfect foresight but uncertainty in technological learning tends to reduce the range by removing the early adoption paths of a new technology

multi stage flexible expansion co planning under uncertainties in a combined electricity and gas market natural gas is an important fuel source in the power industry electricity and natural gas are both energy that can be directly consumed to improve the overall efficiency of the energy infrastructure it is imperative that the expansion of gas power plants electricity transmission lines and gas pipelines can be co planned the co planning process is modeled as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem to handle conflicting objectives simultaneously we propose a novel model to identify the optimal co expansion plan in terms of social welfare to evaluate the robustness of plans under different scenarios the flexibility criterion is used to identify each plan s adaptation cost to uncertainties such as demand growth fuel cost and financial constraints etc we developed a systematic and comprehensive planning model to understand develop and optimize energy grids in order to reach higher social welfare and is therefore of great importance in terms of supporting and guiding investment decisions for the power and gas industry meanwhile we use the sequential importance sampling sis to perform scenario reduction for achieving a higher computational efficiency a comprehensive case study on the integrated ieee 14 bus and a test gas system is conducted to validate our approach

the damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation economic assessments of climate change impacts are commonly presented as the effect of a climate change associated with a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide on the current economy this paper is an attempt to express impact as a function of both climate change and socio economic change with regard to climate change issues discussed are level versus rate of change speed of adaptation speed of restoration and value adjustment and symmetry with regard to socio economic change agriculture migration and the valuation of intangible losses are addressed uncertainty and higher order impacts are treated briefly it is qualitatively argued and quantitatively illustrated that these issues matter a great deal for the damage profile over the next century a damage model based on my best guesses is presented in the appendix

a literature survey on energy growth nexus abstract this paper provides a survey of the recent progress in the literature of energy consumption economic growth and electricity consumption economic growth causality nexus the survey highlights that most empirical studies focus on either testing the role of energy electricity in stimulating economic growth or examining the direction of causality between these two variables although the positive role of energy on growth has become a stylized fact there are some methodological reservations about the results from these empirical studies a general observation from these studies is that the literature produced conflicting results and there is no consensus neither on the existence nor on the direction of causality between energy consumption electricity consumption and economic growth as a policy implication to avoid from conflicting and unreliable results the authors may use the autoregressive distributed lags bounds test two regime threshold co integration models panel data approach and multivariate models including new variables such as real gross fixed capital formation labor force carbon dioxide emissions population exchange rates interest rates etc thus the authors should focus more on the new approaches and perspectives rather than by employing usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries and different intervals of time

an efficient probabilistic assessment method for electricity market risk management managing electricity market risks is crucial for market participants for electricity price risk management expectation and standard deviation of price along with possible occurrence of price spike need to be assessed in order to support further risk control in this paper a hybrid probabilistic assessment method based on adaptive importance sampling ais and sequential importance sampling sis is developed improvements on ais and sis make the method better suit electricity market problems case studies are conducted on an equivalent australian national electricity market nem system uncertainties considered include system load renewable energy output generator bidding strategy and outage rate the proposed method provides much faster estimation of both normal price and price spike probability meanwhile achieving comparable accuracy as monte carlo mc simulation results sensitivity of its estimation efficiency against different load level is also analyzed which shows the robustness of the proposed method