the irish case of dependency an exception to the exceptions the dependency approach has recently been criticized by authors who quote the exceptional east asian cases the irish case is used to refute these new modernizationist arguments on two counts 1 countries such as ireland not the east asian countries have regimes with characteristics that tend to set dependency relations in motion these characteristics include radical free trade free enterprise andforeign industrial domination 2 because of these characteristics ireland has endured economic stagnation and tendencies toward higher inequality irish economic growth under foreign dominated industrialization was slowed by decapitalization and by the absence of linkages between foreign and domestic industry time series models show that foreign penetration and free trade are related to slower economic growth because of slower investment growth and other reasons inequality increased primarily because of rising unemployment although social welfare programs reduced the effects of direct income inequality their effects have been reduced by regressive taxation and austerity programs

globalization and the great u turn income inequality trends in 16 oecd countries the debate on the resurgence of income inequality in some advanced industrial societies has often focused on the impact of an increasingly integrated world economy typified by growing capital mobility heightened international competition and an increase in migration this study represents one of the first systematic cross national examinations of the role of globalization in the inequality u turn results indicate on the one hand that total inequality variation is principally affected by the percentage of the labor force in agriculture followed by the institutional factors union density and decommodification and only then by globalization on the other hand longitudinal variation in inequality while still dominated by the percentage of the labor force in agriculture is also principally affected by aspects of globalization such as southern import penetration and direct investment outflow and to a lesser extent by migration in other words globalization explains the longitudinal trend of inc

the characteristics of individual analysts forecasts in europe abstract this study investigates the determinants of financial analysts forecasts differential accuracy in 14 different european stock markets using the i b e s detail history database i find that european financial analysts forecast accuracy is positively associated with analyst firm specific experience forecast accuracy is negatively associated with the number of countries followed by analysts and the age of the forecast surprisingly i find no relationship between forecast accuracy and analysts job experience and the size of the bank employing the analyst

management earnings forecasts and value of analyst forecast revisions this study examines the stock price reactions to analyst forecast revisions around earnings announcements to test whether preannouncement forecasts reflect analysts private information or piggybacking on confounding events and news we find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts more importantly evidence suggests that prior studies finding of weaker stronger stock price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after before the prior quarter earnings announcement disappears once management earnings forecasts are controlled for to the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures our results suggest that the importance of analysts information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated this paper was accepted by wei jiang finance

analyst responsiveness and the post earnings announcement drift abstract this study examines the responsiveness of analyst forecasts to current earnings announcements the results show considerable cross sectional variation in analyst responsiveness and suggest that this variation is related to the costs and benefits associated with prompt forecast revisions more importantly this study finds that with responsive forecast revisions more of the market reaction takes place in the event window and less in the drift window suggesting that analyst responsiveness mitigates the post earnings announcement drift and facilitates market efficiency

foreign capital dependence and development a new direction scholars have long debated the impact of foreign investment on the economies of less developed countries many argue that foreign investment is beneficial for the host economy others argue just as forcefully that dependence on foreign capital is detrimental this study offers a new conceptualization of foreign capital dependence that may resolve this debate foreign investment concentration which is the proportion of a host country s foreign direct investment stocks owned by the single largest investing country the theory is that high investment concentration limits the autonomy of state and business elites to act in the long term interests of domestic growth in a series of cross national panel regression models of 39 less developed countries estimated at five year intervals from 1970 to 1995 the often cited negative effects of foreign capital penetration on growth in gnp per capita are dramatically reduced or entirely replaced when investment concentration and the related concepts of export commodity and trade partner concentrations are included in the analyses foreign investment concentration has a significant long term negative effect on growth that is strongest over the initial five year period and decreases over the next 15 years a similar effect is also found for the 1990 1997 period this structural aspect of capital dependence has a greater impact on development than does the overall level of foreign capital penetration

following the leader a study of individual analysts earnings forecasts abstract this paper develops and tests procedures for ranking the performance of security analysts based on the timeliness of their earnings forecasts the abnormal trading volume associated with these forecasts and forecast accuracy our framework provides an objective assessment of analyst quality that differs from the standard approach which uses survey evidence to rate analysts we find that lead analysts identified by our measure of forecast timeliness have a greater impact on stock prices than follower analysts further we find that performance rankings based on forecast timeliness are more informative than rankings based on abnormal trading volume and forecast accuracy we also present evidence that analyst s forecast revisions are correlated with recent stock price performance suggesting that security analysts use publicly available information to revise their earnings forecasts

dependence distorted development and fertility trends in noncore nations a structural analysis of cross national data to evaluate the hypothesis that dependence on developed nations distorts demographic development in less developed countries ldcs a researcher used panel regression analysis to study variables from 62 nations multinational corporate penetration an estimate of the shares of both a nations capital and its labor that are controlled by developed country based transnational corporations was used as a measure of the level of dependence the analysis demonstrated that school enrollment was highly correlated with level of development social insurance program history and both family planning effort fpe measures in addition countries that underwent the most economic growth the most concerted fpes etc had the most rapid decline in fertility rates conversely those with high levels of multinational corporate penetration dependency experienced either an increase in fertility or a slow decline for example south koreas 1965 cbr was 36 below the population mean of 45 in 1984 the cbr dropped to 20 even further below the population mean of 39 a dramatic absolute and relative fertility decline south korea also had the highest rate of economic growth and its increase in family planning program effort was dramatic from no measurable effect in 1972 to the nation with the highest fpe score in 1982 in addition the level of multinational penetration was modest in conclusion this research supports the view that intranational economic phenomena such as rate of economic growth and concerted fpes contribute significantly to fertility decline on the other hand multinational corporate penetration distorts development and impedes fertility reduction

analyzing the analysts career concerns and biased earnings forecasts this paper examines the career concerns of security analysts we relate long histories of their earnings forecasts to job separations we find that relatively accurate past forecasts lead to favorable career outcomes such as remaining at or moving up to a high status large prestigious brokerage house controlling for accuracy optimistic forecasts relative to the consensus increase the chances of favorable job separations job separations depend much less on accuracy for analysts who cover stocks that are underwritten by their brokerage houses such analysts are also much more likely to be rewarded for optimistic forecasts than other analysts furthermore job separations were much less sensitive to accuracy and somewhat more sensitive to optimism during the stock market mania of the late 1990s these findings suggest that the well documented analyst forecast optimism bias is likely due to incentives to promote stocks

dependency theory and taiwan analysis of a deviant case the case of taiwan represents a challenge to two predictions from dependency theory that foreign economic penetration leads to slow economic growth and also to heightened inequality since the early 1950s taiwan has received massive foreign aid and investment but it has also had one of the highest sustained rates of growth in the world while income inequality on the island has decreased substantially an examinatin of this deviant case is pursued by consideration of the various mechanisms dependency theorists claim are responsible for the linkage of foreign economic penetration to stagnation and inequality in the taiwan case none of these mechanisms work out as predicated instead a variety of factors including the nature of the japanese colonial experience the emphasis on labor intensive enterprise and the absence of an entrenched burgeoisie created a situation in which both rapid growth and increasing equality could occur consideration of taiwan draws attention to flaws in the arguments of most

analyst characteristics timing of forecast revisions and analyst forecasting ability abstract we first examine whether analysts with certain characteristics that prior research has identified are related to superior forecasting ability systematically time their forecast revisions later in the fiscal quarter we then examine whether this superior ability persists after controlling for the timing advantage by using relative forecast error a measure that largely eliminates the timing advantage of recent forecasts using a sample of quarterly earnings forecast revisions over the 20 year period from 1990 to 2009 we find that analysts with more firm specific and general experience and more accurate prior period forecasts analysts employed by larger brokerage firms and analysts who follow fewer industries and companies tend to revise forecasts later in the quarter we also find that analyst characteristics that are positively correlated with revision timing are negatively related to relative forecast errors these results are consistent with analyst characteristics being useful proxies for analyst forecasting ability and analysts with greater ability revising forecasts later in the quarter

career concerns of banking analysts we study how career concerns influence banking analysts forecasts banking analysts first last earnings forecast of the year is relatively more optimistic pessimistic for a bank that could be their future employer this pattern is not observed when the same analysts forecast earnings of banks unlikely to be their future employer we use the global settlement as an exogenous shock on career concerns and show that this forecast pattern is more pronounced after the settlement moreover we find evidence that analysts benefit from this behavior as analysts that are more biased in their forecasts of potential future employers are more likely to move to a higher reputation bank

investment dependence and alternative explanations of third world mortality a cross national study dependency perspectives contend that foreign investment promotes underdevelopment in the third world whereas diffusionist perspectives argue that it promotes development earlier cross national research conceptualized development as economic growth or inequality this study conceptualizes development as basic needs satisfaction focusing on infant mortality and life expectancy at 1 year of age mortality effects of 1967 multinational corporate penetration and foreign aid dependence are assessed for 63 underdeveloped countries in panel models expanding to 1980 other variables affecting mortality include multinational corporate investment flows secondary school enrollment and changes in birth rates and government health spending aid dependence has no effects multinational corporate penetration has significant harmful effects on mortality that tend to increase with time in addition to harmful effects on infant mortality penetration has small benefits for infant mortality via promotion of health spending the influence of multinational corporate penetration on mortality appears to be mediated in part by inequality authors

financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting this study classifies analysts earnings forecasts as herding or bold and finds that 1 boldness likelihood increases with the analyst s prior accuracy brokerage size and experience and declines with the number of industries the analyst follows consistent with theory linking boldness with career concerns and ability 2 bold forecasts are more accurate than herding forecasts and 3 herding forecast revisions are more strongly associated with analysts earnings forecast errors actual earnings forecast than are bold forecast revisions thus bold forecasts incorporate analysts private information more completely and provide more relevant information to investors than herding forecasts

does foreign capital harm poor nations new estimates based on dixon and boswell s measures of capital penetration l a s efforce de mesurer l impact economique de la penetration du capital et de l investissement etranger sur l economie des pays en voie de developpement il examine et critique le mode d evaluation de la production propose par w j dixon et t boswell il estime qu il convient de distinguer investissement local et investissement etranger il presente les differents types d interpretation et etudie un certain nombre de donnees collectees concernant le panama la jamaique le liberia la guinee et enfin trinidad et tobago il se demande d une part si l investissement local et preferable a l investissement etranger et d autre part si ce dernier appauvrit les pays en voie de developpement il s interroge sur le bien fonde de la theorie de la dependance

multinational firms and the theory of international trade and investment tinational corporation in the arena of economic activity and political influence trade theorists have either ignored it or expressed unguarded skepticism at the ability of the conventional trade models to successfully capture and analyze the features of this new phenomenon the purpose of this paper is twofold first by building upon the contribution by richard caves we will show that the traditional trade models can be adapted in a way that preserves most if not all of the attributes introduced by international firms 2 second we will conduct a comparative statics analysis to explore the implications of tariffs and taxes for resource allocation and international capital movements our results here confirm what has already been well established in myriad empirical studies that maturation of the international firm has vastly increased economic interdependence among trading countries and that few nations can eschew the ripples caused by economic policies of other nations 3

the rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations abstract this paper finds that firms that meet or beat current analysts earnings expectations mbe enjoy a higher return over the quarter than firms with similar quarterly earnings forecast errors that fail to meet these expectations further such a premium to mbe although somewhat smaller exists in the cases where mbe is likely to have been achieved through earnings or expectations management the findings also indicate that the premium to mbe is a leading indicator of future performance this premium and its predictive ability are only marginally affected by whether the mbe is genuine or the result of earnings or expectations management

product market pricing power industry concentration and analysts earnings forecasts this is the first study to establish a link between product market power and analysts earnings forecast accuracy and bias relating two different dimensions of market power to earnings forecastability we document that a a firm s relative pricing power and b its industry concentration are strong positive determinants of analysts earnings forecast accuracy we find that forecasting earnings of higher market power firms is less complex due to their ability to withstand cost shocks as well as greater informational efficiency enjoyed by such firms further forecast optimism increases with weakening product market pricing power and with lower industry concentration the knowledge derived from this study will hopefully improve the accuracy of equity valuation and thereby engender better buy side stock selections and sell side recommendations by analysts our analysis also suggests that brokerage firms compensating analysts based on forecast accuracy need to adjust for the differential in the information complexity of different industries

multinational firms and government policy abstract taxing mnc capital and subsidizing wages in a dual ldc economy increases national income if and only if mnc employment increases unemployment depends on the labour demand elasticity in the traditional sector and the percentage of labour in each sector

the timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions abstract this paper evaluates the information content of analysts one quarter ahead earnings forecast revisions and recommendation revisions at various points in event time relative to earnings announcement dates across three sets of tests we find that the revisions are least informative in the week after earnings announcements and that the information content of revisions generally increases over event time we find a sharp increase in the information content of upward forecast revisions and recommendation upgrades in the week before earnings announcements but we do not find a similar increase for downward revisions or for recommendation downgrades

the timing of and incentives for annual earnings forecasts near interim earnings announcements abstract security analysts anticipate and respond to interim earnings announcements when they revise their annual earnings forecasts analysts avoid revising for two weeks before an interim announcement and more frequently revise immediately after an announcement as expected revision activity after an interim announcement is greater if absolute unexpected interim earnings are larger if there are more competing analysts and if unexpected interim earnings are negative unexpectedly analysts are reluctant to revise their forecasts early in the fiscal year these findings carry implications for research designs that use analyst forecasts

the long term effects of foreign investment dependence on economic growth 1940 1990 does dependence of a national economy on foreign investment promote economic growth or underdevelopment the recent exchanges between glenn firebaugh and william j dixon and terry boswell suggest the contentious nature of this debate this study analyzes models similar to those tested in previous research but with data from earlier time points to examine the long term effects of foreign capital penetration accumulated stocks of foreign capital gdp in 1938 have a short term five year positive effect on economic growth followed by a 20 year lagged negative effect on economic growth beginning in 1960 and lasting at least 30 years similar effects are found using a second indicator of foreign investment dependence debits on investment income for the 1950 90 period the international migration of capital has facilitated development of the world s natural resources and has been instrumental in transmitting the direct effects of the industrial revolution from area to area thereby it has helped to increase

urban bias dependence and economic stagnation in noncore nations this paper contributes to the growing body of research that assesses the effects of patterns of urbanization on economic growth in less developed countries ldcs regression analysis of data for 65 80 nations including analyses of influential cases suggests that both urban bias and dependency have independent simultaneous and negative effects on economic growth further analyses reveal a strong positive relationship between dependency and urban bias these findings show that understanding urbanization and development in the third world requires the consideration of both external international and internal intranational factors and a combination of the insights gained from dependency world system human ecology and modernization theories

boon or bane reassessing the productivity of foreign direct investment we assess the effects of foreign and domestic capital on economic growth using the latest data and better models of economic growth than those previously used we explicitly consider the role of human capital in the process of economic development we find no evidence that foreign direct investment harms the economic prospects of developing countries the flow of foreign capital from 1980 to 1991 spurred growth in gross domestic product per capita while the level of foreign stock or foreign penetration had no discernible effect indeed new foreign investment was more productive dollar for dollar than was capital from domestic sources previous suggestions that foreign investment flows are less beneficial than domestic ones were based on a misinterpretation moreover foreign direct investment stimulates investment from domestic sources consequently developing countries have no reason to eschew foreign capital as dependency theorists urge

trade openness foreign direct investment and child labor summary the skeptics of globalization argue that increased trade openness and foreign direct investment induce developing countries to keep labor costs low for example by letting children work this article argues that there are good theoretical reasons why globalization might actually have the opposite effect we test this with various measures of child labor and provide the first analysis of foreign investment in addition to trade we present evidence that countries that are more open to trade and or have a higher stock of foreign direct investment also have a lower incidence of child labor this holds for the labor force participation rate of 10 14 year old children the secondary school nonattendance rate and a count measure of economic sectors with child labor incidence as the dependent variables globalization is associated with less not more child labor

do security analysts improve their performance with experience we investigate if sell side security analysts generate more accurate quarterly earnings forecasts and more profitable stock recommendations as their experience following a specific firm increases we measure firmspecific experience as the number of prior quarters for which the analyst has issued an earnings forecast for the firm if analysts improve their forecasting performance with repetition as suggested by the learning by doing lbd model an analyst s earnings forecasts will become more accurate with experience prior empirical work provides mixed evidence on whether analysts exhibit individual forecasting performance differences e g butler and

income inequality democracy and public sector size this study synthesizes and tests explanations of how public sector size and democracy affect income inequality the results based on unbalanced panel data for 64 developing and developed countries

theories of earnings announcement timing abstract recent empirical research has found that when a firm releases its earnings report earlier than expected its stock price rises on average while if the report is late its stock price declines the analysis here focuses on two alternative explanations for these findings each based on the premise that some firms with unfavorable earnings increase their reported income through earnings management in one case earnings management necessitates a reporting delay while in the other a delay is caused by the manager s desire to first observe other firms earnings both cases lead to market reactions consistent with the empirical findings

confirming management earnings forecasts earnings uncertainty and stock returns in this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts stock prices and analyst expectations confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings this study provides evidence that these voluntary disclosures affect stock prices and the dispersion of analyst expectations specifically we find that the market s reaction to confirming forecasts is significantly positive indicating that benefits accrue to firms that disclose such forecasts in addition although we find no significant change in the mean consensus forecasts a proxy for earnings expectations around the confirming forecast date evidence indicates a significant reduction in the mean and median consensus analyst dispersion a proxy for earnings uncertainty finally we document a positive association between the reduction of dispersion of analysts forecasts and the magnitude of the stock market response overall the evidence suggests that confirming forecasts reduce uncertainty about future earnings and that investors price this reduction of uncertainty

growth effects of foreign and domestic investment over tha past few years numerous studies in sociology have concluded that foreign investment harms poor nations these studies have focused on the coefficient for foreign capital stock controlling for flow new investment and defying logic have inferred that a negative coefficient for stock reflects dependency effects that retard economic growth since capital stock is the denominator for investment rate the greater the stock the lower the investment rate for a given level of new investment hence the negative coefficient for capital stock found in dependency studies indicates a beneficial investment effect not a harmful effect this point is demonstrated by reanalysis of the data used in dependency studies in these data foreign investment spurs growth earlier analysts have concluded otherwise only because their conclusions have belied their findings

security analysts career concerns and herding of earnings forecasts several theories of reputation and herding see e g scharfstein and stein 1990 suggest that herding among agents should vary with career concerns our goal in this paper is to document whether such a link exists in the labor market for security analysts specifically we look at the relationship between an analyst s job tenure a proxy for career concerns and various measures of stock earnings forecast performance we establish the following key results 1 older analysts are more likely to produce earnings forecasts of firms before younger ones 2 their forecasts also deviate more from the consensus forecast than their younger counterparts we argue that these results are consistent with some reputational models of herding we also establish a number of auxiliary findings regarding the relationship between forecast accuracy and frequency of forecast revisions with job tenure