involuntary unemployment and implicit contracts this paper provides an explanation of involuntary umemployment arising as a consequence of asymmetric information between firms and workers involuntary unemployment is defined as a situation where ex post gains to trade exist a model of labor contracts is developed where the allocations are not ex post optimal it is shown that inferiority of leisure is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of involuntary unemployment

underemployment with liquidity constrained multi period firms s grossman and o d hart amer econ rev 71 1981 301 307 have shown that underemployment can occur if firms are risk averse and have better information than workers c kahn and j scheinkman j econ theory 35 1985 343 365 replace the assumption of risk aversion with the more basic assumption of limited liability but they obtain risk averse behaviour only when the liquidity constraint is currently binding a t period model is developed here to show that firms will also display risk aversion if the liquidity constraint might become binding in the future

wage employment contracts this paper studies the efficient agreements about the dependence of workers earnings on employment when the employment level is controlled by firms the firms superior information about profitability conditions is responsible for this form of contract governance under plausible assumptions such agreements will cause employment to diverge from efficiency as a byproduct of their attempt to mitigate risk it is shown that if leisure is a normal good and firms are risk neutral employment is always above the efficient level such a one period implicit contracting model cannot therefore be used to explain unemployment as a rational byproduct of risk sharing between workers and a risk neutral firm under conditions of asymmetric information

understanding the welfare implications of currency substitution abstract this paper develops a model of endogenous currency substitution where agents decide which purchases will be made with domestic and which with foreign currency in a representative agent economy allowing for this use of alternative means of payments is welfare enhancing the result is an application of ramsey taxation rules by which currency substitution shifts the burden of the inflation tax towards relatively demand inelastic commodities when extending the model to the case in which agents have different productivities we show that inflation has strong income distribution effects with high low income agents benefitting losing when currency substitution is introduced

trade s dynamic solutions to transboundary pollution abstract this study develops a differential game to examine the effects of trade liberalization on transboundary water pollution water pollution is due to wastewater emissions from countries in a shared waterway along the u s mexico border with available data of pollution abatement costs public health damages and trade benefits noncooperative and cooperative games are examined with changes in trade policy and public health damages results show trade liberalization leads mexico to curtail pollution in both games cooperation and trade liberalization limit emissions from both countries and curtail strategic behavior of the united states from mexico s pollution control efforts in the noncooperative game

implicit contracts moral hazard and unemployment this paper considers a firm whose marginal revenue product of labor is a random variable we derive the form of an optimal long term contract between workers and the firm under the assumption that labor s marginal product is observed by the firm but not by the workers we show that the existence of asymmetric information causes unemployment to be greater than in a situation where information about labor s marginal product is public or where employment is determined in spot markets in particular unemployment can occur when the marginal product of labor exceeds the reservation wage

optimal employment contracts with bankruptcy constraints abstract consider the optimal incentive compatible contract offered by a firm with private information to its risk averse employees if the firm is subject to a binding limited liability or bankruptcy constraint then the contract will yield underemployment in low productivity states relative to full information efficiency such contracts either yield underemployment in all states or excessively high variability in employment

trade liberalization and the environment in the pacific basin coordinated approaches to mexican trade and environment policy in this paper we analyze the environmental implications of growth and opening up of trade in mexico based on an empirical economywide model in particular we study how tradeoffs between growth and environmental objectives can be minimized by using targeted policies on pollution emissions in coordination with outward oriented trade strategies most economywide studies of trade and environment linkages rely on effluent intensities associated with output and do not allow for substitution between nonpolluting factors labor and capital and polluting intermediate consumption such as chemicals or energy lee and roland holst by contrast pollution emissions in the present model are linked to using polluting inputs rather than directly to output levels we also embed this analysis in a dynamic framework to take account of exogenous components of factor supply and productivity growth over the twenty year period 1990 to 2010 the analysis is presented in three stages first pollution abatement policies are considered alone and their effects on growth sectoral allocation and trade are evaluated the next step is to consider trade liberalization alone trade distortions in place before the nafta and uruguay round accords are removed progressively over time and results calibrate the expansionary effects of trade liberalization as well as its environmental implications these include win win cases such as in the fertilizer sector as well as intensified environmental degradation arising from the transportation sector in a third and last scenario we combine environmental and trade policies and show how they interact these results indicate that the combination of policies generally can mitigate the undesirable effects of each set of policies alone such as trade induced pollution growth and the real contractionary effects of environmental policy thus it appears that more liberal and outward oriented trade policy can coexist with more rigorous attention to environmental values the trade and environment debate has

inflation and welfare in a monetary economy it is in everyone s private interest to try to get someone else to hold non interest bearing cash and reserves but someone has to hold it all so these efforts must simply cancel out all of us spend several hours per year in this effort and employ thousands of talented and highly trained people to help us these person hours are simply thrown away wasted on a task that should not have to be performed at all

inflation interest rate policy and currency substitutions in developing economies a discussion of some major issues abstract this paper deals with the management of interest rates in an open economy under rapid inflation and reviews the links between interest and exchange rate policies to prevent current substitution the rate of interest paid to lenders must equal the equivalent rate after adjusting for differential taxation and intermediation costs this would probably induce capital inflows and consequent monetary growth exchange risks are also considered in this context the paper concludes that under inflationary conditions it is difficult to use only interest rates to achieve both proper resource allocation and prevention of currency substitution some policy measures to cope with this problem are discussed

monetary aggregates and output series title working paper frb title monetary aggregates and output date publication federal reserve bank of cleveland working paper no 9813 author s scott freeman finn kydland type working paper frb topics s us economy

stabilization policy and the costs of dollarization this paper compares the welfare costs of business cycles in a dollarized economy to those associated with several alternative monetary regimes belonging to three broad families interest rate feedback rules inflation targeting and money growth rate rules the analysis is conducted within an optimizing model of a small open economy with sticky prices the model is calibrated to the mexican economy and is driven by 3external shocks terms of trade world interest rate and import price inflation we show econometrically that these shocks explain more than 75 of the observed forecasting error variance of mexican output and the mexican real exchange rate at 4 to 16 quarter horizons the welfare comparisons suggest that dollarization is the least successful of the monetary policy rules considered agents are willing to give up more than 2 of their non stochastic steady state consumption to see a policy other than dollarization implemented

the trade balance and real exchange rate under currency substitution abstract it is demonstrated that the calvo and rodriguez 1977 results hold up in a utility maximizing model contrary to the claim of liviatan 1981 it is argued that liviatan s conclusions are based on a mistaken assumption having rescued calvo rodriguez from liviatan it is then shown that the calvo rodriguez results are dependent on two special assumptions that there is only one foreign asset traded and its real return is zero the paper also shows that there is an avenue for foreign inflation transmission under perfectly floating exchange rates even when goods prices are perfectly flexible however the direction of response of real variables is in general ambiguous

inflationary finance and currency substitution in a public finance framework abstract this paper analyzes the impact of currency substitution on inflationary finance in a public finance framework it is shown that if foreign money balances can be taxed or subsidized the optimal inflation tax is always zero in the more realistic case in which foreign money cannot be taxed the optimal inflation tax is positive whenever there are revenue needs moreover the optimal inflation tax is an increasing function of government spending and the foreign nominal interest rate

liquidity constrained employment contracts abstract kahn and scheinkman 1985 have shown that optimal contracting between risk averse workers and risk neutral but liquidity constrained firms results in underemployment if firms have better information than workers this result is extended here by allowing the firm to divide its wealth between capital and liquid assets so that liquidity is a choice variable the firm generally chooses a portfolio under which it is optimal not to choose the risk neutral i e expected profit maximizing employment contract the underemployment result is thereby shown not to be strongly dependent on the choice of parameters

endogenous currency substitution inflationary finance and welfare in some countries a foreign currency has replaced the domestic one to perform the functions of money this phenomenon is known as currency substitution this paper explores the relationship between currency substitution and inflationary finance in an overlapping generations model in which currency substitution is an endogenous equilibrium outcome the author describes when currency substitution may emerge and shows that it may be a purely expectational phenomenon he uses the model to discuss the welfare effects of inflation and the effects of policies that deal directly with currency substitution cs copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

inflation thresholds and the finance growth nexus abstract the robustness of the cross sectional relationship between the size of a country s financial sector and its rate of economic growth is by now well established in this article we examine whether the strength of this relationship varies with the inflation rate using five year averages of standard measures of financial development inflation and growth for 84 countries from 1960 to 1995 a series of rolling panel regressions show that there is an inflation threshold for the finance growth relationship that lies between 13 and 25 percent when inflation exceeds the threshold finance ceases to increase economic growth we also find that the level of financial depth varies inversely with inflation in low inflation environments and that disinflation is associated with a positive effect of financial depth on growth

international trade and the environment policy reform in a polluted small open economy abstract this paper investigates sufficient conditions for welfare improving policy reforms in a small open economy facing many trade and pollution distortions we investigate and compare reform in tax regimes quota regimes and mixed regimes where some pollutants are regulated with taxes and others with quotas it is also shown that the welfare benefits of reforming pollution policy are greater in an economy with international factor mobility than in an economy not subject to such mobility

induced institutional change in the trade and environment debate because of the assumption of constant emission factors economy environment models often show that free trade has negative environmental consequences however this pessimistic view ignores the possibility of trade strengthening the demand for regulatory institutions an institutional optimism hypothesis stating that the net environmental result of trade liberalization is benign is thus formulated in this paper the hypothesis is examined with a cge model that treats institutional change as an endogenous process dependent on income application to nafta using a broad range of scenarios provides some support for the institutional optimism hypothesis the net pollution effect of trade liberalization is in many cases beneficial or low even for the country specializing in polluting industries the implication is that in many cases environmental interests are served better by a focus on institution building in trading partners than on the process of trade liberalization itself

free trade and the environment development system abstract we develop a simulation model to analyze the trade environment development system that contains a number of important advances over the earlier and current theoretical models our model like other models has an income induced pollution policy allows country factor endowments to influence trade patterns and allows production factors to be mobile intersectorally unlike other theoretical models our model treats pollution stemming from both production and consumption in a way that does justice to empirical observations we model pollution policy explicitly as an abatement investment thus effectively allowing for differences in pollution intensive technology across countries in addition we allow for an internationally traded intermediate good a natural resource as a result of this novel approach we find that 1 the benefits of trade i can be either positive or negative and ii depend on country endowments and 2 the pollution effects of trade are closely tied to the benefits of trade our model generally shows higher pollution levels under free trade than autarky however our results do not support the pollution haven hypothesis i e trade causes less pollution in developed countries and more pollution in developing ones some developing countries produce more of the pollution intensive good but ultimately consume less pollution under autarky because they have higher per capita income and thus invest more heavily in environmental upgrading under autarky

currency substitution and the real exchange rate the utility maximization approach abstract this paper studies the currency substitution hypothesis with rational expectations in terms of a sidrauski type model where domestic and foreign money enter the utility function it shows that contrary to liviatan 1981 the approach does not necessarily contradict calvo and rodriguez 1977 furthermore the impact of monetary stabilization policy is fully characterized with flexible and pre fixed rates for an extension of dornbusch and mussa 1975 a brief analysis of the optimal quantity of money is also provided

currency substitution inflation and welfare abstract currency substitution affects the mapping between social welfare and inflation by altering the underlying money demand function and influencing interest rates in order to explore the essence of this effect i build a model with working capital under which foreign currency is substituted with the less liquid components of domestic money the framework closely mimics the actual pattern of currency substitution across varying rates of inflation and enables the study of an additional channel that works through the impact of currency substitution on interest rates it is found that there is a threshold inflation rate which turns out to be 44 under baseline calibration below which currency substitution decreases welfare and vice versa a practical implication is that at inflation rates lower greater than the threshold the potential welfare gains from disinflation to a near zero inflation rate are higher lower if there is currency substitution than otherwise

double dividend with trade distortions analytical results and evidence from chile abstract the double dividend debate evolves around the possibility or not of substituting environmental taxes for more distortionary taxes to reduce both pollution degradation and or damages the first dividend and the excess burden of existing taxes the second dividend without eroding tax revenues this paper contributes to the double dividend debate with a formal analysis and some numerical evidence emphasizing trade and environmental distortions the substitution of environmental taxes for trade distortions has been neglected in the double dividend debate which has centered on labor market distortions conditions for the existence of a double dividend are derived for different characterizations of preferences and policy menus we empirically explore the trade environment double dividend with an applied general equilibrium model of the chilean economy the model includes many distortions and a vector of six air pollution effluents their health incidences and associated damages which are assumed nonseparable from market goods findings suggest solid evidence of a trade environment double dividend in the case of chile swapping environmental taxes for trade distortions improves welfare the swap would even pay for itself under the assumption of separable pollution damages from market good consumption

employment with asymmetric information in an economy without informational and other distortions entrepreneurs and workers can write labor contracts that support a pareto optimal allocation of resources this paper is an attempt to characterize contracts when enterpreneurs are better informed about the state of nature than are their workers asymmetric information generally results in a suboptimal allocation of both risk and worker effort in particular if consumption and leisure are perfect substitutes employment will be less than fully pareto optimal in all but the most favorable states of nature

incentives precision technology and environmental protection abstract this paper calls for a reevaluation of the pollution problem in order to devise efficient strategies for its control it contends that a fundamental cause of pollution is inefficiency in input use during the production process this inefficiency manifests itself as input waste and polluting residues precision technologies can increase the effectiveness of inputs used in production and reduce pollution generation despite their potential economic and ecological benefits adoption of precision technologies has been slow this paper presents a conceptual framework to identify and analyze the specific factors that affect their diffusion among microunits these include various heterogeneous characteristics of microunits prices which do not reflect the relevant scarcities due to distortionary regulatory policies and lack of institutional mechanisms for efficient allocation of inputs and outputs it rationalizes the observed variations in the appropriate choice of technology across microunits and argues for the need to broaden the range of incentive based instruments for environmental protection beyond pollution taxes

the interface between growth trade pollution and natural resource use in chile evidence from an economywide model abstract we investigate the implications of trade liberalization and pollution taxes on aggregate income pollution and natural resource use in chile with a neoclassical economywide model comprising 75 sectors the model incorporates 13 measures of pollution effluents which are linked to the use of polluting inputs and energy use we estimate the economic and environmental impact of chile s participation in nafta mercosur of unilateral trade liberalization and effluent taxes unilateral trade liberalization induces substantial worsening of pollution emissions and expansion of resource based sectors partly because of access to cheaper energy nafta integration is environmentally benign in terms of pollution emissions

carbon emissions control and trade liberalization coordinated approaches to taiwan s trade and tax policy abstract in recent years several studies have emerged on the possible reconciliation between trade and environmental policies however little attention has been devoted to inquiring about the economic implications of the linkages of these policies in the newly industrialized countries the so called nics in this paper we investigate the joint effects of trade and environmental policies on the taiwan economy the estimates are derived from a five household 18 sector computable general equilibrium model calibrated to a 1995 social accounting matrix our empirical results based on taiwan s data show that tariff elimination can significantly reduce the costs of carbon emissions control and possibly offset welfare reductions due to implementation of a carbon tax our findings reveal that the coordination of trade liberalization with the introduction of targeted environmental policies enhances factor relocation towards competitive industries they are broadly consistent with those cases of developing countries reported in previous studies

do increases in energy efficiency improve environmental quality and sustainability governments world wide increasingly see energy efficiency as an important aspect of sustainability however there is a debate in the literature as to whether the impact of improved energy efficiency on reducing energy use might be partially or more than wholly offset through rebound and backfire effects this paper clarifies the theoretical conditions under which such effects would occur and explores their likely significance using a computable general equilibrium cge model of the scottish economy we find that for scotland a general improvement in energy efficiency in the production sectors of the economy initially produces rebound effects that eventually grow into backfire energy use ultimately increases in response to an efficiency gain and the ratio of gdp to co2 emissions falls the economic factors underpinning rebound effects are straightforward energy efficiency improvements result in an effective cut in energy prices which produces output substitution competitiveness and income effects that stimulate energy demands however the presence of strong rebound or even backfire does not mean that efficiency enhancing policies are irrelevant rather it suggests that such policies operating alone are insufficient to generate environmental improvements the implication is that a co ordinated portfolio of energy policies is required

what is a liquidity crisis abstract this paper investigates the role of liquidity it is argued that the firm holds money as a guarantee of solvency to its contractual partners by holding liquid assets the firm is able to increase the efficiency of its contracts variations in the opportunity cost of holding money cause variations in the firm s demand for money and consequent variations in the frequency of contract failures this mechanism is suggested as an alternative explanation of the observed relationship between money income and interest rates

comparing the welfare costs and initial dynamics of alternative inflation stabilization policies abstract this paper uses calibrated versions of a sticky price currency substitution model to compare the initial dynamics and welfare costs of three types of stabilization program exchange rate based erb money based mb and money based with initial reliquefication mbr erb and mbr programs are found to induce an initial expansion in real activity whereas mb programs are initially contractionary the welfare gains of eliminating high inflation are significant under permanent erb and mbr programs but small under permanent mb programs in addition temporary mb programs are shown to be much more disruptive than temporary erb or mbr programs these results provide an explanation for why mb programs are so rarely implemented and suggest that empirical studies that fail to distinguish mb from mbr programs are likely to be biased toward finding that stabilizations are always expansionary regardless of the nominal anchor

financial capacity and output fluctuations in an economy with multi period financial relationships this paper motivates a financial propagation mechanism in the context of an intertemporal production economy with asymmetric information and with borrowers and lenders who enter multi period financial relationships a key feature is that aggregate output and borrowers financial capacity the maximum overhang of past debt they may feasibly carry are determined jointly much in the spirit of gurley and shaw 1955 expectations of future economic conditions govern financial capacity which in turn may constrain current production especially in bad times a small but persistent shift in aggregate conditions may have a large impact on financial capacity making the framework capable of motivating large endogenous fluctuations in financial constraints understanding how small disturbances can induce large output fluctuations is an on going quest in macroeconomics this paper develops a simple framework in which shifts in aggregate economic fundamentals are amplified through their impact on financial conditions a distinguishing feature is that output and borrowers financial capacity the maximum overhang of past debt they may feasibly carry are determined jointly much in the spirit of gurley and shaw 1955 expectations of future economic conditions govern financial capacity and financial capacity may constrain current production especially in bad times a number of recent papers have resurrected the view that financial factors may play a part in propagating business fluctuations the underlying theories exploit the idea that with asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders agency costs may drive the price of uncollateralized external funds above the price of internal funds in this kind of setting a borrower s financial position is a key determinant of the terms of credit she faces in the aggregate swings in borrower balance sheets over the cycle amplify fluctuations in investment and output essentially by inducing counter cyclical movements in the required premium for external finance this simple mechanism is broadly consistent with informal descriptions of how financial and real variables interacted in the great depression bernanke 1983 and in the postwar business cycles eckstein and sinai 1986 in addition numerous recent panel data studies beginning with fazzari hubbard and peterson 1988 support the notion of a financial investment accelerator mechanism

technological change in economic models of environmental policy a survey this paper provides an overview of the treatment of technological change in economic models of environmental policy numerous economic modeling studies have confirmed the sensitivity of mid and long run climate change mitigation cost and benefit projections to assumptions about technology costs in general technical progress is considered to be a noneconomic exogenous variable in global climate change modeling however there is overwhelming evidence that technological change is not an exogenous variable but to an important degree endogenous induced by needs and pressures hence some environmenteconomy models treat technological change as endogenous responding to socio economic variables three main elements in models of technological innovation are i corporate investment in research and development ii spillovers from r d and iii technology learning especially learning by doing the incorporation of induced technological change in different types of environmental economic models tends to reduce the costs of environmental policy accelerates abatement and may lead to positive spillover and negative leakage

dynamic labor contracts under asymmetric information abstract this paper discusses the distortion of employment within a two period asymmetric information contracting model in which an exogenous demand shock is serially correlated and is known only to firms the obtained results show that serial correlations of the state of nature can cause not only underemployment but also overemployment even when overemployment never occurs in the context of a static asymmetric information contracting model

currency substitution new evidence from emerging economies abstract this paper provides new empirical evidence for currency substitution in different emerging market economies estimation results from a money in the utility function framework indicate that foreign currencies are strong substitutes for domestic currency in producing liquidity services