wage mobility in the united states this paper examines the mobility of individuals through the wage and earnings distributions using 1979 1991 data from the national longitudinal survey of youth lifetime wages will be more equally distributed than wages from any single year if individuals change position in the wage distribution over time the results suggest that mobility is predominantly within group mobility reducing wage inequality by 12 26 over a four year horizon a detailed examination of within group mobility using year to year estimates of transition probabilities among quintiles of the distribution reveals similar general patterns across all skill groups mobility declined significantly over the years especially at the lower end of the wage and earnings distributions

group loyalty and the taste for redistribution interpersonal preferences preferences that depend on the characteristics of others are typically hard to infer from observable individual behavior as an alternative approach this paper uses survey data to investigate interpersonal preferences i show that self reported attitudes toward welfare spending are determined not only by financial self interest but also by interpersonal preferences these interpersonal preferences are characterized by a negative exposure effect individuals decrease their support for welfare as the welfare recipiency rate in their community rises and racial group loyalty individuals increase their support for welfare spending as the share of local recipients from their own racial group rises these findings help to explain why levels of welfare benefits are relatively low in racially heterogeneous states

seasonal migration and agricultural production in vietnam abstract when markets are incomplete migration can have multiple effects on agricultural production i use instrumental variables techniques to explore the effects of seasonal migration on agricultural production in rural vietnam during the 1990s using network variables specific to vietnam as instruments i find that migrant households in north vietnam appear to move out of rice production and into the production of other crops inputs used by migrant households decrease relative to similar non migrant households the evidence is consistent with a shift from labor intensive into land intensive crops rather than productivity changes or the use of additional capital in production

nonfarm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural africa concepts dynamics and policy implications abstract asset activity and income diversification lie at the heart of livelihood strategies in rural africa this paper introduces a special issue on the topic income diversification and livelihoods in rural africa cause and consequence of change we concentrate on core conceptual issues that bedevil the literature on rural income diversification and the policy implications of the empirical evidence presented in this special issue

the forgotten property rights evidence on land use rights in vietnam summary studies of land property rights usually focus on tenure security and transfer rights rights to determine how to use the land are regularly ignored however user rights are often limited relying on a unique vietnamese panel data set at both household and plot levels we show that crop choice restrictions are widespread and prevent crop diversification restrictions do not decrease household income but restricted households work harder and there are indications that they are supplied with higher quality inputs our findings are consistent with the view that it is possible to intervene effectively in agricultural production to promote output and food security nevertheless potential benefits of a more diversified crop pattern must be carefully considered in a period where global food markets are in turmoil

custom hired tractor services and returns to scale in smallholder agriculture a production function approach historically agricultural transformation has often accompanied the increase in the returns to scale little direct evidence exists however on what actually causes such increase despite the knowledge of many factors that are associated with this increase we fill this knowledge gap by testing whether hiring in tractor services has raised returns to scale in agriculture at the household level in nepal terai that has undergone rapid growth in the tractor use through custom hiring services using switching regression and inverse probability weighted generalized method of moments we address two sources of endogeneity involved with the estimation of returns to scale 1 farmers self selection on whether to hire in tractor services and 2 use of inputs in the production function for both cobb douglas and translog production function specifications we find that hiring in tractor services significantly increased the returns to scale in agricultural production by about 0 2 0 3 among farm households not owning tractors for which suitable control groups are found findings are robust under various alternative specifications

testing for rational bubbles with exogenous or endogenous fundamentals the german hyperinflation once more abstract the presence of rational price bubbles during the german hyperinflation is tested under two different structural assumptions on the money process if the money supply is constrained to be exogenous to the current inflation rate the hypothesis of no bubble can be rejected however this is no longer found to be true when a feedback rule from inflation to money creation is allowed the analysis contradicts previous results presented in the literature

an index of inequality with applications to horizontal equity and social mobility horizontal equity and social mobility are discussed in terms of a non utilitarian social welfare function which takes account of the process by which an ex ante distribution is mapped into an ex post distribution by the tax system for example an index of inequality is proposed which decomposes into two components corresponding to vertical and horizontal equity respectively a functional form for the social welfare function is derived for the purposes of empirical work and an application to data for 5895 uk households is presented the paper contains a theoretical application of the index to a model of optimal taxation it is conventional to assess the merits of alternative public policies in terms of a trade off between equity and efficiency in practice however a change in say the tax system involves three effects first it may have incentive or disincentive effects leading to efficiency gains or losses secondly it may alter the distribution of welfare levels thirdly it may alter the ranking of individuals or households within the distribution these three effects correspond to efficiency vertical equity and we shall argue certain aspects of horizontal equity respectively and any assessment of a tax change must take into account all three the principal assumption of this paper is that government is concerned about the trade off between these three effects a strict utilitarian is concerned only with the consequences of an action and in the evaluation of a particular reform a utilitarian measure of social welfare is defined over the vector of ex post utilities no account is taken of the process by which the vector of ex ante utilities is mapped into the ex post vector and no ethical status is awarded to the ex ante distribution one does not have to adopt an entitlement theory of justice to believe that the utilitarian approach may ignore some relevant considerations such as the fairness of the redistributive process a striking example of this arises in the model used by mirrlees 11 to examine optimal income taxation in that model individuals have identical preferences defined over consumption and leisure and differ only in respect of their potential wage rates or ability levels clearly in the absence of taxation individual utility is an increasing function of ability suppose the government uses redistributive lump sum taxes to achieve the first best optimum then as mirrlees 11 12 shows the first best optimum for a utilitarian social welfare

the rapid rise of cross regional agricultural mechanization services in china although adam smith 1776 and alfred marshall 1920 emphasized the gains from specialization that arise from the division of labor their focus was on the manufacturing sector both saw farming as being on too small a scale and bereft of economies of scale with a market that was too small and local with too sharp a seasonality and too quick a succession of tasks to support either the development of a division of labor over the tasks of a cropping season or of mechanization smith and marshall s vision of farming and its implications for division of labor and mechanization was manifest again in the 1950s to the present in asia ruttan 2001 puts forward nearly the same ideas and terms as smith and marshall but for contemporary small rice farms in asia he emphasizes that the use of machines for the series of short tasks performed on tiny farms would imply costly investment in specialized machines that small farmers would be loath to make and even if these farmers mechanized ruttan posited that it would not induce a segmented and specialized farm labor market as again the critical mass of demand for each segment would not be present otsuka 2012 goes further along these lines to note that only on larger farms would the mechanization investment

who wants to redistribute the tunnel effect in 1990s russia abstract support for governmental redistribution tended to be greater for the poor than the rich in a representative sample of russian adults in 1996 however support for redistribution is higher amongst those who expect their welfare to fall and this effect is strongest amongst the currently well off a rising trajectory inhibits demand for redistribution support is also stronger in rural areas amongst those with less schooling those who fear losing their job the elderly and amongst women our results are consistent with albert hirschman s idea of a tunnel effect whereby prospects of mobility in both directions influence demand for governmental redistribution

inequality the urban rural gap and migration using population and product consumption data from the demographic and health surveys i construct comparable measures of inequality and migration for 65 countries including some of the poorest countries in the world i find that the urban rural gap accounts for 40 of mean country inequality and much of its cross country variation one out of every four or five individuals raised in rural areas moves to urban areas as a young adult where they earn much higher incomes than nonmigrant rural permanent residents equally one out of every four or five individuals raised in urban areas moves to rural areas as a young adult where they earn much lower incomes than their nonmigrant urban cousins these flows and relative incomes are suggestive of a world where the population sorts itself geographically on the basis of its human capital and skill i show that a simple model of this sort explains the urban rural gap in living standards

the intertemporal evolution of agriculture and labor over a rapid structural transformation lessons from vietnam abstract we combine nationally representative household and labor force survey data from 1992 to 2016 to provide a detailed description of rural labor market evolution and how it relates to the structural transformation of rural vietnam especially within the agricultural sector our study adds to the emerging literature on structural transformation in low income countries using micro level data and helps to answer several policy related questions we find limited employment creation potential of agriculture especially for youth rural urban real wage convergence has gone hand in hand with increased diversification of the rural economy into the non farm sector nationwide and rapid advances in educational attainment in all sectors and regions workforce minimum wage laws seem to have played no significant role in increasing agricultural wages this enhanced integration also manifests in steady attenuation of the longstanding inverse farm size yield relationship farming has remained securely household based and the family farmland distribution has remained largely unchanged small farm sizes have not obstructed mechanization nor the uptake of labor saving pesticides consistent with factor substitution induced by rising real wage rates as rural households rely more heavily on the labor market human capital accumulation rather than land endowments have become the key correlate of improvements in rural household well being

the classic european hyperinflations revisited testing the cagan model using a cointegrated var approach the cagan model of hyperinflation under rational expectations no bubbles and stationary velocity shocks has the implication that real balances cointegrate with money growth in a re examination of the classic european hyperinflations i find support for this cointegrating property which gives evidence against the assumption made in most previous studies that velocity shocks follow a random walk based on a cointegrated var model i reject statistically for four of the six hyperinflations the exact rational expectations cagan model but at the same time i find evidence of a substantial forward looking element in agents demand for real balances in the sense that a large part of the predictable movement in money growth is incorporated in agents demand for money

export markets and labor allocation in a low income country we study the effects of a positive export shock on labor allocation between the informal microenterprise sector and the formal firm sector in a low income country the united states vietnam bilateral trade agreement led to large reductions in us tariffs on vietnamese exports we find that the share of manufacturing workers in vietnam in the formal sector increased by 5 percentage points in response to the us tariff reductions the reallocation was greater for workers in more internationally integrated provinces and for younger cohorts we estimate the gap in labor productivity within manufacturing across the informal and formal sectors this gap and the aggregate labor productivity gain from the export induced reallocation of workers across the two sectors are reduced when we account for worker heterogeneity measurement error and differences in labor intensity of production

the meaning and measurement of income mobility abstract income mobility may be seen as arising from two sources i the transfer of income among individuals with total income held constant and ii a change in the total amount of income available in this paper we propose several sensible properties defining the concept of income mobility and show that an easily applicable measure of mobility is uniquely implied by these properties we also show that the resulting measure is additively decomposable into the two sources listed above namely mobility due to the transfer of income within a given structure and mobility due to economic growth or contraction finally these results are compared and contrasted with other mobility concepts and measures in the literature journal of economic literature classification numbers d31 d63

social mobility and redistributive politics just like economists voters have conflicting views about redistributive taxation because they estimate its incentive costs differently we model rational agents as trying to learn from their dynastic income mobility experience the relative importance of effort and predetermined factors in the generation of income inequality and therefore the magnitude of these incentive costs in the long run left wing dynasties believing less in individual effort and voting for more redistribution coexist with right wing dynasties this allows us to explain why individual mobility experience and not only current income matters for political attiitudes and how persistent differences in perceptions about social mobility can generate persistent differences in redistribution across countries

misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data monte carlo and interwar european evidence abstract this paper analyzes some new tests of the cagan hyperinflation money demand model which have several advantages relative to those in the literature they do not confound specification error with rational bubbles can be implemented with a linear procedure and are frequently able to detect periodically collapsing bubbles which have challenged existing tests after a monte carlo analysis the tests are applied to data from hyperinflations in austria germany hungary and poland evidence of misspecification is found for austria germany and hungary while the model without a rational bubble component appears to fit the data for poland

individual preferences for political redistribution what drives people s support of governmental reduction of income inequality we employ data from a large international survey in order to evaluate the explanatory power of three competing forces referred to as the homo oeconomicus effect the public values effect and the social rivalry effect the empirical analysis reveals that at the aggregate level all three effects play a significant role in shaping individual preferences for political redistribution attitudes of citizens in formerly socialist countries turn out to differ from those of western citizens in a systematic way 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the german hyperinflation and the demand for money revisited this paper shows that a remarkably well defined demand for real balances exists for the german hyperinflation episode including the final months which have previously been considered as outliers the authors econometric analysis exploits the theory of cointegration given the obvious nonstationarity of the data further they consider two likely sources of misspecification income variability and the necessity to distinguish between the high inflation and hyperinflation episodes copyright 1994 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

agriculture structural transformation and poverty reduction eight new insights abstract whether the sector of growth matters for the speed of poverty reduction why and how best to invest to maximize the poverty reducing effects of sectoral growth remain topics of intense debate drawing on the more recent history and applying a range of methods the papers in this special issue confirm the view that growth in agriculture is on average more poverty reducing than an equivalent amount of growth outside agriculture they also add important nuances to this broad empirical regularity uncover a series of structural conditions that affect this relation and show that different mechanisms to finance public investment to boost sectoral growth deficit financing taxation or aid can have widely different impacts on poverty a widely ignored issue so far they do so by going beyond the traditional agriculture nonagriculture dichotomy also looking at the subsectors and the differential effects of prices versus productivity they further distinguish between production for home and market consumption between modern outward oriented and informal domestically focused firms as well as between secondary towns and cities eight key insights emerge

economic exchange during hyperinflation historical evidence indicates that hyperinflations can disrupt individuals normal trading patterns and impede the orderly functioning of markets to explore these issues we construct a theoretical model of hyperinflation that focuses on individuals and their process of economic exchange in our model buyers must carry cash while shopping and some transactions take place in a decentralized setting in which buyer and seller negotiate over the terms of trade of an indivisible good since buyers face the constant threat of incoming younger hence richer customers their bargaining position is weakened by inflation allowing sellers to extract a higher real price however we show that higher inflation also reduces buyers search increasing sellers wait for customers as a result the volume of transactions concluded in the decentralized sector falls at high enough rates of inflation all agents suffer a welfare loss

sustaining policy cooperation between economies of different size abstract i consider an example of a two country model featuring national heterogeneity and demonstrate that heterogeneity plays an important role for the countries gains from international policy cooperation and just as important for the incentives to break the cooperative agreement i find that national heterogeneity unambiguously reduces trigger strategies support for policy cooperation in other words the more countries differ the harder it is to sustain policy cooperation

property rights labour markets and efficiency in a transition economy the case of rural china we investigate the consequences of imperfect factor market development for farm efficiency in north china we estimate the extent to which an inverse relationship in farm productivity can be attributed to the administrative as opposed to market allocation of land combined with unevenly developed off farm opportunities using a new household survey we find considerable inefficiency in the use of labour this inefficiency is alleviated by external labour markets and to a limited degree by administrative reallocations the reallocations do not go far enough however which raises important questions about con straints on rental activity and property rights formation more generally jel classification q15 012

a theory of the welfare state the welfare state can be seen as an insurance device that makes lifetime careers safer increases risk taking and suffers from moral hazard effects adopting this view the paper studies the trade off between average income and inequality evaluating redistributive equilibria from an allocative point of view it studies the problem of optimal redistributive taxation with tax induced risk taking and shows that constant returns to risk taking are likely to imply a paradox where more redistribution results in more post tax inequality in general optimal taxation will either imply that the redistribution paradox is present or that the economy operates at a point of its efficiency frontier where more inequality implies a lower average income redistribution welfare state

labor productivity and employment gaps in sub saharan africa drawing on a new set of nationally representative internationally comparable household surveys this paper provides an overview of key features of structural transformation labor allocation and labor productivity in four african economies new micro based measures of sector labor allocation and cross sector productivity differentials describe the incentives households face when allocating their labor these measures are similar to national accounts based measures that are typically used to characterize structural changes in african economies however because agricultural workers supply far fewer hours of labor per year than do workers in other sectors productivity gaps disappear almost entirely when expressed on a per hour basis what look like large productivity gaps in national accounts data could really be employment gaps calling into question the prospective gains that laborers can achieve through structural transformation these employment gaps along with the strong linkages observed between rural non farm activities and primary agricultural production highlight agriculture s continued relevance to structural change in sub saharan africa

how does war shock the economy abstract wartime periods have frequently been treated as natural macroeconomic experiments but the international pooled time series evidence presented here shows that the literature has over emphasized the experience of the united states and the united kingdom wars fought exclusively on foreign soil do have marginally higher real output growth than peacetime periods but real growth during all other wars is sharply below peacetime levels evidence for foreign and domestic wars is consistent with monetarist fiscalist and mixed theories of wartime booms

human capital age structure and growth fluctuations this article assesses the empirical relationship between per capita income growth fluctuations and the age structured human capital variations across four groups of geographically clustered developed and developing countries from spatial perspective we estimate a spatial vector autoregressive var model of income dynamics where the distance between countries is defined on relational space based on their similarity in appropriation tendency of human capital in the production processes these distances are computed using a newly developed human capital data set which fully characterizes the demographic structure of human capital and thus underlines the joint relevance of demography and human capital in economic growth spatial effects on growth interdependence and complementarity are then explored with respect to the proposed distance metrics our results imply that significant cross country growth interdependence based on human capital distances exists among defined country groups suggesting the need for a cooperative policy programme among them we also find that the relationship between economic growth and human capital is highly nonlinear as a function of the proposed human capital distance

on the evaluation of economic mobility this paper presents a framework for the evaluation and measurement of reversal and origin independence as separate aspects of economic mobility we show how that evaluation depends on aversion to multi period inequality aversion to inter temporal fluctuations and aversion to future risk we construct extended atkinson indices that allow us to quantify the relative impact of reversal and origin independence on welfare we apply our approach to the comparison of income mobility in germany and in the united states when aversion to inequality is the only consideration the us gains more from mobility than germany this reflects similar gains from reversal in the two countries but greater gains in the us from origin independence the introduction of aversion to intertemporal fluctuations and aversion to future risk makes the impact of mobility in the two countries more similar

on price risk and the inverse farm size productivity relationship abstract the oft observed inverse relationship between farm size and productivity has elicited several explanations having important policy and theoretical implications using advances in the analysis of price risk effects on producer behavior and a simple two period model of an agricultural household that both produces and consumes under price uncertainty at the time labor allocation decisions are made this paper demonstrates analytically that a non degenerate land distribution and price risk can together produce an inverse relationship even absent any of the more common explanations empirical evidence from madagascar confirms the plausibility of this intuitive explanation for the phenomenon

more equal but less mobile education financing and intergenerational mobility in italy and in the us a centralised and egalitarian school system reduces the cost of education for poor families and so it should reduce income inequality and make intergenerational mobility easier in this paper we provide evidence that italy compared to the usa displays less income inequality as expected given the type of school system but also less intergenera tional upward mobility between occupations and between education levels we explore some of the reasons which can explain this puzzling result and conclude that in a world in which family background is important for labor market success a centralised and egalitarian tertiary education does not necessarily help poor children and may take away from them a fundamental tool to prove their talent and to compete with rich children 1999 elsevier science s a all rights reserved

land titling and rural transition in vietnam abstract we examine the impact of the 1993 land law of vietnam which gave households the power to exchange transfer lease inherit and mortgage their land use rights we use household surveys before and after the law was passed together with the considerable variation across provinces in the speed of implementation of the reform to identify the impact of the law we find that the additional land rights led to statistically significant increases in the share of total area devoted to long term crops and in labor devoted to nonfarm activities however these changes are not large in magnitude and appear to be driven mainly by the increased security of tenure provided by the law rather than by increased access to credit markets or greater land market participation

growth human capital spillovers and international policy coordination the paper is concerned with public policy and economic development in a world of interdependent economies its objective is to show how the international coordination of economic policy is a means of promoting growth across countries the analysis is based on a two country endogenous growth model in which the production of human capital depends on country specific tax financed public expenditure and worldwide previously accumulated knowledge we consider optimal policy as the outcome of a dynamic game between benevolent governments we show that both growth which itself has no normative significance and welfare are indeed higher under cooperation than under non cooperation

hyperinflations their origins development and termination abstract this paper summarizes and critically surveys research on hyperinflation appraisal and review of the literature considers the origins development termination and the lessons to be learned from hyperinflations the historical evidence as well as the econometric evidence is analyzed it is concluded that while the lessons to be learned from such episodes perhaps have been overstated a number of useful implications may be derived from studying hyperinflations such as an understanding of the forces which link monetary and fiscal policies to inflation and policy makers role in influencing individuals expectations

pesticides productivity and farmer health a philippine case study health is recognized as one of the most important components of the human capital of rural people in developing countries there is a growing body of literature showing the productivity effects of health associated with nutrition e g bliss and stern 1978 strauss 1986 deolalikar 1988 pitt rosenzweig and hassan 1990 in this literature the productivity effects of health are inferred either by correlating health indicators with wages or by including health indicators in an agricultural production function the human capital literature also has demonstrated that farmer education plays an important role in the allocative and technical efficiency of farmers welch 1970 schultz 1975

the decline of welfare benefits in the u s the role of wage inequality welfare benefits in the u s have experienced a much studied secular decline since the mid 1970s we explore a new hypothesis for this decline related to the increase in wage inequality in the labor market and the decline of real wages at the bottom of the distribution we posit that voters prefer benefits which are tied to low skilled wages we test the hypothesis using a 1969 1992 panel of state level data an additional contribution of our analysis is the use of general social survey data on voter preferences for welfare which we combine with current population survey data to determine the voter in each state who has the median preferred welfare benefit level our analysis reveals considerable evidence in support of a role for declining real wages in the decline of welfare benefits

rising real wages mechanization and growing advantage of large farms evidence from indonesia this paper examines dynamic patterns of land use capital investments and wages in agriculture using farm panel data from indonesia the empirical analysis shows that with an increase in real wages that prevailed in both agricultural and non agricultural sectors in rural areas relatively larger farmers increased the size of operational farm land by renting in land as well as used more hired in machines through machine rental and or service providers which induces the substitution of labor by machines machines and land are complementary and consistently the inverse farm size productivity relationship tends to be reversed among relatively large holders the results support growing diminishing advantage of large small farms in the presence of rapidly rising real wages and have food security policy implications to many asian countries where real wages are rapidly rising and small farms are predominant

preferences for redistribution in the land of opportunities this paper explores how individual preferences for redistribution depend on future income prospects in addition to estimating the impact of individuals socioeconomic background and of their subjective perceptions of future mobility we employ panel data to construct dobjectivet measures of expected gains and losses from redistribution for different categories of individuals we find that such measures have considerable explanatory power and perform better than dgeneral mobilityt indexes we also find that preferences for redistribution respond to individual beliefs on what determines one s position in the social ladder ceteris paribus people who believe that the american society offers equal opportunities are more averse to redistribution d 2004 published by elsevier b v

technological progress mobility and economic growth this paper analyzes the relationship between technological progress wage inequality intergenerational earnings mobility and economic growth in periods of major technological inventions a decline in the relative importance of initial conditions raises inequality enhances mobility and generates a larger concentration of high ability individuals in technologically advanced sectors stimulating future technological progress and growth however once technologies become more accessible mobility is diminished and inequality decreases but becomes more persistent the reduction in the concentration of ability in technologically advanced sectors diminishes the likelihood of technological breakthroughs and slows future growth user friendliness therefore becomes unfriendly to future economic growth copyright 1997 by american economic association

social preferences self interest and the demand for redistribution preferences for redistribution may be influenced by values and beliefs about distributive justice as well as by self interest people may prefer more redistribution to the poor if they believe that poverty is caused by circumstances beyond individual control therefore beliefs about the causes of income may affect demand for redistribution alternatively the effect of these beliefs on redistributive preferences may be spurious if they are correlated with income and self interest is not properly controlled for they may also measure incentive cost concerns using social survey data i find that self interest cannot explain the effect of these beliefs on redistributive preferences 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

robust permanent income and pricing i suppose there exists an extremely powerful and if i may so speak malignant being whose whole endeavours are directed toward deceiving me rene descartes meditations ii 1

distributive politics and economic growth a crude distinction between economics and politics would be that economics is concerned with expanding the pie while politics is about distributing it in this paper we analyze the relationship between the two we focus on how an economy s initial configuration of resources shapes the political struggle for income and wealth distribution and how that in turn affects long run growth our main conclusion is that inequality is conducive to the adoption of growth retarding policies we derive this result from a simple political economy model of growth and present cross country evidence consistent with it the key feature of our model is that individuals differ in their relative factor endowments we distinguish between two types of factors an accumulated factor called capital and a nonaccumulated factor called labor growth is driven by the expansion of the capital stock which is in turn determined by individual saving decisions long run growth is endogenous as the aggregate production function is taken to be linearly homogeneous in capital and productive government services taken together the provision of government services is financed by a tax on capital because government services are productive a small tax on

cagan s model of hyperinflation under rational expectations this paper studies p cagan s model of the german hyperinflation under the hypothesis that adaptive expectations are rational it shows that inference about the key money demand elasticity parameter a is very senstitive to the specification of the dynamic interaction of the unobserved money demand shock with prices and money in particular if t j sargent s 1977 specification is modified then his basic conclusions are overturned identification of a does not require prior knowledge about the covariance of unobserved shock terms and d ata on the german hyperinflation imply a sharp not loose estimate of a which is of plausible magnitude finally informal tests indicate that modifying sargent s specification gives rise to improved model fit copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

intergenerational mobility and the process of development this paper offers an explanation for some evidence that intergenerational earnings mobility is higher in more developed economies and that mobility is positively correlated with wage equality in the model mobility promotes economic growth via its effect on the accumulation and allocation of human capital growth influences mobility via its effect on incentives to acquire education and its effect on liquidity constraints upon such acquisition in the process of development mobility increases and the distribution of education becomes better correlated with ability redistributive policy has a negative effect on growth in developed economies and a positive effect in developing economies

the changing structure of africa s economies data from the groningen growth and development center s africa sector database and the demographic and health surveys reveals that much of africa s recent growth and poverty reduction has been associated with a substantive decline in the share of the labor force engaged in agriculture this decline is most pronounced for rural females over the age of 25 who have a primary education it has been accompanied by a systematic increase in the productivity of the labor force as it has moved from low productivity agriculture to higher productivity services and manufacturing although the employment share in manufacturing is not expanding rapidly in most of the low income african countries the employment share in manufacturing has not peaked and is still expanding albeit from very low levels more work is needed to understand the implications of these shifts in employment shares for future growth and development in africa south of the sahara

policy implications of new data on income mobility the existence of income mobility may moderate concerns about growing inequalities especially if income mobility has increased however the evidence for rising mobility is equivocal and its extent is not enough to offset the growth of cross sectional inequality there is a case for greater concern for and different policies towards those persistently or recurrently poor than those only temporarily poor but the data analysed here suggest that the bulk of low income observations come from the first two categories analysis of income mobility may help understand why people s incomes follow different trajectories and how policy might affect this

bubble weak and strong hyperinflation theory and empirical evidence the monthly continuous inflation rate that maximizes the inflation tax revenue varies widely from 18 3 to 143 according to semi elasticity estimates for the german hyperinflation made by several authors cagan 1956 barro 1970 frenkel 1977 sargent 1977 goodfriend 1982 burmeister and wall 1987 christiano 1987 casella 1989 taylor 1991 engsted 1993 imrohoroglu 1993 michael et al 1994 those estimates lead one to conclude that during hyperinflation the german government could have obtained more tax revenue with lower inflation rates

testing for sunspot equilibria in the german hyperinflation in this paper i investigate whether the 1923 german hyperinflation was driven by market fundamentals or sunspots in the context of a linear rational expectations model the theory suggests that hyperinflations can be explained as movements along the slippery side of a stochastic laffer curve data from the german episode provide some overall support for the cross equation restrictions of the model and its laffer curve characterization however market fundamentals not deterministic bubbles or sunspots are found responsible for the explosiveness in the data

the relation between farm size and farm productivity the role of family labor supervision and credit constraints abstract the paper shows that if the performance of hired farmhands is affected by supervision from family members and if the availability of credit is dependent on the amount of land owned then a systematic positive or negative relationship between per acre yields and farm size will prevail a model with no supervision effects on labor productivity would predict that yields are unaffected by farm size the paper also investigates the relation between land utilization and owned holding size when land rental possibilities are limited results are shown to be compatible with various observed patterns in ldcs