analysis of the changing influences on traditional households ownership patterns abstract sociological and economic forces have begun to alter ownership patterns in ways not yet captured by movements in the aggregate ownership rate while demographic factors such as marital status and family structure remain influential in determining tenure choice their impact has waned particularly among the best educated households and those with rising real incomes labor market conditions as evidenced by increasing returns to skill are more strongly felt than ever before in the housing market the impact on owning of being highly educated now rivals the influence of being married with minor children increasingly delayed ownership is a reality even for traditional family units with 36 to 45 year old heads that have not prospered in the labor market the rising real cost of even relatively inexpensive suburban housing is also beginning to be reflected in a heightened impact for real family income on tenure choice finally race currently is more adversely influential in determining suburban ownership for young middle aged minority families than it was in 1960 particularly if the household head is not well educated we suspect this is due to racially disparate impacts of increasingly rigorous zoning regulations and higher impact fees in the suburbs

day of the week effects and asset returns the number of empirical studies using daily stock returns is rapidly increasing researchers generally assume that the distribution of stock returns is identical for all days of the week a convenient statistical assumption but not a necessary condition of market equilibrium nevertheless there are reasons to suspect that the distribution of returns may vary according to the day of the week the most obvious is the impact of weekends on monday s return since monday s return is calculated over three instead of one calender day the mean and variance may well be higher on monday compared with any other daily return perhaps three times as large previous research has examined the daily distribution of stock returns for a monday effect while fama 1965 does not compare daily mean returns he does report that monday s variance is about 20o greater than other daily returns with a traditional distributional assumption regarding the returns on a financial asset specifies that the expected returns are identical for all days of the week contrary to this plausible assumption this paper discovers that the expected returns on common stocks and treasury bills are not constant across days of the week the most notable evidence is for monday s returns where the mean is unusually low or even negative several explanations of the results are investigated but none proves satisfactory aside from documenting significant day of the week effects the implications of the results for tests of market efficiency are examined while market adjusted returns continue to exhibit day of the week effects these effects are no longer concentrated on monday during the last year we have had many conversations with our colleagues throughout the professions we are particularly thankful to the participants at sessions of the western and american finance associations where preliminary versions of this paper were presented special thanks are due to gene fama gailen hite jon ingersoll robert jarrow merton miller clifford smith and rex thompson the expert research assistance of frank rabinovitch and youngsup yun is gratefully acknowledged 1 the list of papers using daily stock returns is too long to name recent examples include charest 1978 dodd 1980 banz 1981 and reinganum 1981

empirical evidence on dividends as a signal of firm value the role of dividends in firm valuation continues to be a theoretical puzzle as well as an empirical obsession with economists the pioneering work by modigliani and miller mm 32 29 is the archetype of the theoretical dilemma whereas the authors proved convincingly the irrelevance of dividend policy to firm value within a perfect capital market they tempered their irrelevance proposition with what is usually referred to as the information content of dividends icd hypothesis in a more scientific sense this hypothesis should be labeled as a conjecture since it is essentially an ad hoc observation that dividends may convey information to the capital market concerning a firm s future earnings potential even though the icd hypothesis was not derived from a well specified economic model it has nevertheless been subjected to a plethora of empirical studies in general these studies have focused upon the precise influence of dividend changes upon a firm s common stock price overall the results can be described as being supportive of the notion that stock price movements are positively correlated with cash dividend changes this correlation of course is consistent with the icd hypothesis

user cost changes unemployment and home ownership evidence from spain this paper develops a macroeconomic model that permits analysis of the relationship between unemployment and home ownership rates using aggregate data at the provincial level within spain besides other influential variables such as the changes of the relative user costs of owning and renting or household life cycle attributes the model constructed permits the authors to question the evidence of oswald nickell and layard and partially of green and hendershott that home ownership leads to higher unemployment the results point out that taking into account the simultaneity determination issue and reducing the omitted variable bias a higher unemployment discourages home ownership

asymmetric information signaling and optimal corporate financial decisions as is shown in the financial literature the assumption of perfect and costless information often leads to the conclusion that corporate financial decisions are inconsequential to the value of the firm e g stiglitz 20 and fama 6 this conclusion seems to be in direct contradiction with the observed behavior of corporations that allocate real resources to implement financial policies the gap between theory and observed behavior is bridged by introducing various frictions and market imperfections a growing number of studies examine the optiraality of financial decisions when the assumption of perfect and costless information is replaced by allowing for informational asymmetry the asymmetry is assumed to exist between corporate insiders who possess superior information about the firm s future earnings prospects and outside investors the emphasis in this literature is on the ability of financial instruments to serve as signaling devices through which the true value of the firm can be revealed to the market without moral hazard or disclosure of confidential information although the signaling process is typically considered to be costly it is advocated that firms may be better off if they employ this mechanism rather than reveal reliable but confidential information or not disclose at all

market response to banks granting lines of credit abstract prior research has shown and this paper confirms that when the market becomes aware a line of credit is granted the borrower s stock has a positive and significant reaction the borrower s reaction is used to identify the exact date the market becomes aware of the granting of the line of credit this date is used as a one day window to investigate whether the bank s stock also reacts this reaction will be most obvious with large lines of credit all lines of credit larger than us 1 billion granted during the years 1993 1996 are investigated the results show as predicted a positive and significant reaction by the bank s stock

comparative analysis of the social demographic and economic factors that influenced housing choices in spain in 1990 and 2000 the housing market is an important sector in the economy of any country residential demand also referred to as housing consumption depends on many demographic and social characteristics of the country s population and is also related to economic factors the aim of the present paper was to evaluate the joint effects of economic demographic and social factors on household behaviour with respect to housing choices in addition an attempt was made to determine the impact of recent economic and structural changes in spanish society in 1990 and 2000 on residential demand it was found that the consequences of these structural changes will have medium and long term effects on housing demand and that the current economic situation has significantly affected the short term changes in this demand

on the perceived value of money the reference dependence of currency numerosity effects money illusion research shows that the nominal face value of money affects consumer perceptions of its real value recent mixed findings on consumer valuations in different currencies suggest that the underlying anchoring and adjustment processes are complex we develop a framework to identify boundary conditions that specify the direction of anchoring effects on valuations in different currencies consumers anchor on the numerosity of the nominal difference between prices and salient referents e g budgets when evaluating transactions support for our framework comes from a series of experiments that evoke different reference standards we discuss implications and opportunities for future research

anticipated policy and endogenous growth in a small open monetary economy abstract this paper analyzes the effects of a preannounced change in the growth rate of credit in a small open economy the model based on an endogenous growth model introduces the adjustment costs for investment and the role of money in the production function and highlights the dynamic behavior of an open economy we show that an increase in the rate of anticipated credit growth lowers the steady growth rate of capital real money balances and real output we also find that the rate of depreciation of the domestic currency will rise steadily toward its stationary level the anticipated domestic credit growth hence exhibits monetary nonsuperneutrality in both the rate and the level of output in the intermediate and the long run

consistent estimation of cross sectional models in event studies event studies often include cross sectional regressions of announcement effects on exogenous variables if the event is voluntary and investors are rational then standard ols and gls estimators are inconsistent consistent ml estimators are constructed for a cross sectional model of horizontal mergers relating announcement effects to exgeneous characteristics of firms and industries the ols and ml estimates differ dramatically for bidders but not for targets the evidence suggests that managers of bidders but not targets have valuable private information about the potential synergies from proposed mergers article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

modelling the choice of tenure and building type a multinomial logistic mnl model and a naive nested logistic model are estimated to relate differences in household size age income and housing prices to differences in the choice of tenure and building type the estimated models show that the demand for lower density options decreases with a reduction in household size and increases with increasing age and real income higher rents increase the demand for owner occupied single family detached houses higher price levels for the ownership option shift demand toward all of the higher density options particularly toward high rise rental apartments the key assumption underlying the mnl model is examined and shown to not hold true however the differences in the predictions made by the two models are too small to matter in the study of the choices among the major building types issues regarding the choice of models are discussed in the conclusions

tenure choice and the demand for housing this paper deals with the estimation by means of nonlinear methods of preference parameters from observation of behaviour in housing markets it differs from previous work on housing market behaviour in several important aspects first it treats the choice of tenure mode that is whether to rent or own and the housing consumption decision as a joint decision second it explicitly uses the same behavioural model in analysing these discrete and continuous elements of housing market behaviour third it allows for an analysis of the role of capital market imperfections and discriminatory practices in constraining housing market decisions

predisclosure information firm capitalization and security price behavior around earnings announcements several studies on the relationship between earnings reports and security price behavior provide evidence suggesting that a significant portion of the information revealed through earnings reports is reflected in security prices prior to the report month e g ball and brown 1968 and brown and kennelly 1972 this has been attributed at least partly to the existence of other more timely sources of information which allow market agents to forecast earnings prior to their release the evidence above reflects an average finding across all firms one question of interest is whether there are significant systematic crosssectional differences in the security price reactions to earnings announcements of firms which are associated with specific firm characteristics that lead to differential amounts of predisclosure information this study focuses on firm size capitalization as one such characteristic a firm

tick size share prices and stock splits minimum price variation rules help explain why stock prices vary substantially across countries and other curiosities of share prices companies tend to split their stock so that the institutionally mandated minimum tick size is optimal relative to the stock price a large relative tick size provides an incentive for dealers to make markets and for investors to provide liquidity by placing limit orders despite its placing a high floor on the quoted bid ask spread a simple model suggests that idiosyncratic risk firm size and visibility of the firm affect the optimal relative tick size and thus the share price in stock markets around the world the average price per share differs substantially the median u s stock for example sells for about 40 a typical london stock sells for about 5 7 50 and a typical hong kong share is about 2 furthermore when stock prices rise above a country s usual trading range firms often split their stocks to restore prices to that range why are these price ranges so different among countries these trading ranges can be remarkably stable over time during the half century from 1943 to 1994 the s p composite index increased over 1 500 percent yet the average new york stock exchange nyse share price was

stock splits and stock dividends why who and when this study investigates empirically why firms split their stock or distribute stock dividends and why the market reacts favorably to these distributions the findings suggest that stock splits are mainly aimed at restoring stock prices to a normal range some support can also be found for the oft mentioned signalling motive of stock splits stock dividends are altogether different from stock splits and they appear to be a decreasing phenomenon the clue to stock dividend distributions may lie in their perceived substitution for relatively low cash dividends neither stock splits nor stock dividends are recent phenomena the latter dates back to the elizabethan age among the first to declare such dividends was the east india company which while enjoying great prosperity declared in 1682 a stock dividend of one hundred percent during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries stock dividends were quite frequently distributed by british companies in the united states an early and frequently discussed stock dividend distribution was that of the new york central railroad just prior to its union with the hudson river railroad in 1869 surprisingly stock dividends were quite popular in the u s despite their being subject to federal income tax thus for example during the seven years prior to 1922 the year in which the supreme court exempted the recipients of stock dividends from taxes the ratio of stock dividends to all dividend distributions was 14 5 percent this ratio increased to a staggering forty seven percent during the seven years succeeding the supreme court decision during 1936 to 1937 some american companies distributed stock dividends to avoid the undistributed profit tax

conditioning the return generating process on firm specific events a discussion of event study methods empirical investigations into the codetermination of security prices and eco nomic events are called event studies there are several ways of estimating the codetermination of interest since fama fisher jensen and roll 8 it has been general practice to first translate variables into rates of return then net out gen eral market movements and finally examine the relationship between residual returns and events the methodology in all of its variants fails under the rubric of 4 residual analysis empirical methods used in residual analysis deviate from the structure and terminology generally found in classical econometrics while this is not a criticism of residual analysis it results in a communication problem that is more than simply pedantic in nature a broad body of econometric literature dealing with parameter estimation statistical inference and hypothesis testing often goes untapped by empiricists in finance who within internally consistent sets of as sumptions have created a separate body of statistical methods in this paper a union of the two disciplines is advocated to provide a forum for comparing and contrasting alternative empirical methods the event study problem is broken down into three phases the parameterization of informa tion arrival applicable to the problem an examination ofthe relationship between parameters in the information arrival process and the estimates resulting from alternative estimation methods and aggregation across firms experiencing simi

disentangling the dividend information in splits a decomposition using conditional event study methods while folklore in finance holds that split valuation effects are due to dividend increases associated with splits little is known about magnitudes of dividend and nondividend components of split announcement effects we find that splits and dividends are indeed informational substitutes a notion we characterize more precisely but a significant portion of split valuation effects 46 according to our estimates cannot be attributed to dividend information in splits our techniques extend the literature on conditional event study methods and we illustrate their practical value in testing hypotheses and analyzing data not amenable to analysis by standard procedures article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the optimum quantity of money rule in the theory of public finance this paper examines optimal tax policy in a monetary economy in which money serves as an intermediate good that helps facilitate the conversion of scarce resources into tinal consumption goods by enabling consumers to economize on the costs of transacting it is shown that in such an environment even though distorting taxes must be levied for revenue purposes the optimal tax structure calls for abstaining from inflationary finance and adopting the optimum quantity of money rule

valuation effects of greenmail prohibitions greenmail payments are widely viewed as actions designed by managers to perpetuate their tenure in offiee this view which suggests that greenmail prohibitions would enhance shareholder wealth receives mixed empirical support in this paper the average market reaction to charter amendments prohibiting greenmail payments is weakly nega tive suggesting there is a value to maintaining managerial flexibility nonlinear maxi mum likelihood estimation however reveals a strong positive correlation between the market reaction and the firm s abnormal stock price runup over the three months just prior to the proxy mailing date for the subsample of firms with a relatively large prior runup the precommitment not to pay greenmail is value enhancing if the prior runup reflects takeover rumors then this evidence is consistent with the proposition that greenmail pay ments amidst takeover speculations are value decreasing

forecasting systematic risk estimates of raw beta that take account of the tendency of beta to change and the heteroskedasticity of residual returns in the application of modern portfolio theory the systematic risk of a security is of central importance beta the future regression coefficient of the return of the security on the return of the market is an index of that risk since the future is yet to be revealed nonclairvoyant practitioners and researchers must rely on estimated rather than actual values of beta and the estimates must be based on data that are currently available

stock splits signaling or liquidity the case of adr solo splits abstract stock splits should have no effect on firm value in perfect capital markets yet stock prices increase on split announcements the two traditional explanations are information signaling and improved liquidity for shares that trade at lower prices we investigate these explanations by studying splits of american depositary receipts adrs that are not associated with splits in their home country stock and which represent unique illustrations of the effect of liquidity we interpret our findings as supportive of the liquidity explanation of stock split announcement effects

stock splits evidence from mutual funds mutual fund splits occur in high priced funds after unusually high returns split factors are related to the deviation of a fund s price from the mean of all fund prices post split prices are below the mean of other funds prices post split numbers of shareholders and assets do not increase compared with funds having similar rates of asset growth however i find evidence that mutual fund splits bring per account shareholdings back up to normal levels i argue that signaling liquidity and tick size theories do not apply to mutual fund splits

estimating the effects of information surprises and trading on stock returns using a mixed jump diffusion model i present a methodology that uses the mixed jump diffusion model for stock returns to estimate the separate effects of information surprises and strategic trading around corporate events using simulation techniques i show that for events with multiple announcements spread over a long time the estimators derived from the mixed jump diffusion model are more powerful compared to the traditional cumulative abnormal return estimators the new methodology is used to study the separate effects of information surprises and strategic trading associated with blockholdings and subsequent targeted repurchases i find that for more than 93 percent of the firms in our sample the mixed jump diffusion model is statistically superior to the pure diffusion model in describing stock returns more important i find a statistically significant negative effect due to trading while the average effect around announcements is statistically insignificant in contrast the standard cumulative abnormal return is not statistically different from zero article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

more powerful portfolio approaches to regressing abnormal returns on firm specific variables for cross sectional studies ols regression ignores both heteroscedasticity and cross correlations of abnormal returns therefore tests of regression coefficients are weak and biased a portfolio ols pols regression accounts for correlations and ensures unbiasedness of tests but does not improve their power we propose portfolio weighted least squares pwls and portfolio constant correlation model pccm regressions to improve the power both utilize the heteroscedasticity of abnormal returns in estimating the coefficients pwls ignores the correlations while pccm uses intra and inter industry correlations simulation results show that both lead to more powerful tests of regression coefficients than pols cross sectional studies that attempt to explain event period abnormal returns on firms securities by economic and or firm specific variables generally use cross sectional ordinary least squares ols regression abnormal returns of different securities are heteroscedastic of unequal variances and contemporaneous abnormal returns may be cross correlated ols ignores both heteroscedasticity and correlations therefore it leads to inefficient and biased tests of significance of regression coefficients for these reasons sefcik and thompson 1986 suggested using generalized least squares gls regression when sufficient data are available to obtain a reliable estimate of the covariance matrix of abnormal returns and portfolio time series ols pols regression should be used when that matrix cannot be estimated reliably in pols regression a cross sectional ols is used to estimate the regression coefficients and a time series of portfolio of estimation period unsystematic returns to estimate the standard errors of those estimates the resulting coefficients estimates are unbiased and their standard errors account for correlations among abnormal returns thus unbiasedness of tests is insured however concern for the power of tests lingers on because cross sectional

a contracting theory interpretation of the origins of federal deposit insurance conventional wisdom holds that the enactment of federal deposit insurance helped small rural banks at the expense of large urban institutions this paper uses asymmetricinformation agency cost paradigms from corporate finance theory and data on bank stock prices to show how deposit insurance could and did help stockholders of large banks the broadening stockholder distribution of large banks during the stock market bubble of the late 1920s undermined the efficiency of double liability provisions in controlling incentive conflict among large bank stakeholders federal deposit insurance restored depositor confidence by asking government officials to take over and bond the task of monitoring managerial performance and solvency at u s banks

market rationality and dividend announcements abstract we investigate stock market rationality by examining the timeliness and unbiasedness of the market s response to dividend announcements our initial findings for market timeliness show a sluggish market reaction to dividend announcements however when the ex dividend effect is controlled for we find no evidence of a sluggish market reaction we examine the unbiasedness of the market s response by testing whether the net announcement effect across a sample that is devoid of ex post selection bias sums to zero we observe a significant positive net announcement effect and examine several plausible conjectures for this puzzling phenomenon but none provides a satisfactory explanation

test for tax effects in the pricing of financial assets this paper tests four competing hypotheses regarding taxation and the pricing of financial assets no differential tax effects in the pricing of stocks or bonds the equilibrium condition described by miller 1977 the two parameter after tax pricing equations of brennan 1970 and litzenberger and ramaswamy 1979 and dividend related clientele effects described by elton and gruber 1970 and litzenberger and ramaswamy 1980 these hypotheses make substantially different predictions about the impact of taxes on financial decisions however when stated in terms of returns the hypotheses imply parameter restrictions with the same functional form the commonality of the parameter restrictions allows simultaneous testing of all four models by testing the form of the parameter restrictions this approach differs from that of previous researchers who have by and large implicitly assumed that the parameter restrictions implied by the respective models hold see elton and gruber 1970 black and scholes 1973 1974 litzenberger and ramaswamy 1979 1980 miller and scholes 1982 conditional on this assumption parameter estimates have been made and this paper tests four models describing the impact of taxes on financial asset returns no tax effects miller s equilibrium the twoparameter pricing models of brennan and litzenberger and ramaswamy and taxinduced dividend clientele effects these tests are carried out by casting the hypotheses in terms of systems of equations and identifying the parameter restrictions implied by each of the hypotheses the systems approach is particularly useful for testing for clientele effects because we are able to identify withinand between equation restrictions without specifying the marginal tax rate of the clientele which holds a particular security my results suggest that none of tax motivated hypotheses is descriptive of the data this paper is a distillation of several research projects i have undertaken in the last two years special thanks are in order to g constantinides e fama j ingersoll a madansky and m scholes i owe a particularly important debt to merton miller for help and encouragement finally i would like to thank steve buser and e han kim

corporate capital expenditure decisions and the market value of the firm abstract this paper is an event time study of the common stock prices of a sample of 658 corporations around the dates on which they publicly announced their future capital expenditure plans for industrial firms announcements of increases decreases in planned capital expenditures are associated with significant positive negative excess stock returns for public utility firm neither increases nor decreases in planned capital expenditures are associated with significant excess stock returns we interpret the evidence as being consistent with the hypothesis that managers seek to maximize the market value of the firm in making their corporate capital expenditure decisions

a limiting joint choice model for discrete and continuous housing characteristics a simultaneous discrete and continuous random utility model for housing demand is presented household utility depends on three characteristics of hou sing a discrete number of bedrooms and continuous measures of hous i ng quality and distance to the central business district empirical r esults for a sample of renter households from san francisco are compa red for a univariate structure in which each choice variable has its own utility or disutility function a simultaneous structure assuming a discrete continuous analog of the independence of irrelevant alter natives and one for which this assumption is relaxed the results in dicate that the third structure is most appropriate copyright 1988 by mit press

misspecification of capital asset pricing this study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one period capital asset pricing model capm is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient in particular portfolios based on firm size or earnings price e p ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the capm furthermore the abnormal returns persist for at least two years this persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency rather the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified however the data also reveals that an e p effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect the firm size effect largely subsumes the e p effect thus while the e p anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than e p ratios

the demand for housing in britain and population ageing microeconometric evidence the paper estimates a household s demand function for housing using household data esti mates of the price and current income elasticities are robust at about 0 4 and 0 5 respec tively independent of price and income effects there is a strong age pattern to household demand in conjunction with the age profile of household formation this pattern implies that changes in the age distribution of the population have important effects on aggregate housing demand although economic growth dominates in determining its rate of growth during the 1980s there was a dramatic boom in british house prices followed by large declines in the early 1990s while financial deregulation and rapid growth in real incomes for people in non manual occupations contributed to the rise in housing demand and prices changes in the population s age distribu tion also played a role ermisch 1990 in particular the number of people in the prime ages for first house purchase increased as a consequence of the baby boom of the 1960s the fall in birth rates during the 1970s and continued low fertility during the 1980s entail smaller numbers in these prime ages and an ageing of the population more generally what effect will these changes in the age distribution of the population in britain have on housing demand and house prices it may be possible to use aggregate data to answer this question e g in fair and dominguez 1991 but as recently stressed by stoker 1993 the most informative assessments of such distributional effects on demand come from studying individual level cross section or panel data a recent study in this vein by mankiw and weil 1989 of the us housing market experience has attracted a great deal of attention because it suggests that house prices are going to fall dramatically in the coming years because of the ageing of the population while their study estimates an age pattern of housing demand from micro data they admit it is a biased estimate and their conclusions concerning the impact of age distribution on house prices are based on a simple aggregate time series equation which omits income and other housing demand and sup ply shifters this paper takes a microeconometric approach it estimates a demand func tion for housing in britain and then examines the implications of prospective changes in the age distribution for housing demand an important by product in estimating the demand function is an estimate of the price elasticity of housing demand despite the importance of this parameter in assessing the impact of policy changes estimates of it for britain are few and existing ones are questionable because of the absence of appropriate data for its estimation

an empirical analysis of stock returns around dividend changes this paper documents significant drift in stock returns following announcements of changes in cash dividends the magnitude is i smaller for increases than for decreases ii inversely related to firm size and positively to dividend yield change and iii concentrated in the first quarter beta changes do not explain the drift and it is robust in various subperiods next it is shown that dividend increases are positively autocorrelated especially every fourth quarter the prices keep reacting to future announcements as if the market ignores these autocorrelations dividend decreases exhibit weak autocorrelation and the returns are negative for the following three announcements

an econometric model of housing price permanent income tenure choice and housing demand abstract this paper addresses the determination of housing price permanent income tenure choice and housing demand full housing demand elasticities incorporate the interactive effects among the four stages of the model price and income have major effects in the tenure choice equation sociodemographic variables such as age have complex effects that may be lost in simpler forms of estimation

market reactions to messages from brokerage ratings systems one dimension of the strategies investment houses use to present investment advice is the number of categories in their rating systems we studied three four and five level systems and found that in all rating systems upgrades outnumber downgrades price reactions are more pronounced to multiple level than to single level recommendation changes and to recommendation upgrades to the highest rating category these price reactions confirm that the market gleans new information from analysts research but suggest that investors at least partially recognize analysts tendency toward optimism and thus react more strongly to downgrades the price effects also show that adding more rating categories is not simply a way to portion out information in smaller bits some of the largest price reactions are to changes between the top two categories in a five level system even though the descriptions of the categories would not signal a portfolio action our results are consistent with the view that firms try to

incorporating contemporaneous residual relationships for security prices abstract using a recent procedure developed by jalilvand and kryzanowski 1985 to capture the contemporaneous residual dependencies in a system of regression equations this paper tests the impact of such residual based relationships in explaining security prices utilizing a multi industry sample of securities over two non overlapping periods the empirical findings show that not only are these contemporaneous residual relationships statistically significant but their inclusion significantly improves the explanatory power of the underlying return generating model

market microstructure and securities values evidence from the tel aviv stock exchange abstract this paper examines the value effects of improvements in the trading mechanism selected stocks on the tel aviv stock exchange were transferred gradually from a daily call auction to a mechanism where the call auction was followed by iterated continuous trading sessions this event was associated with a positive and permanent price appreciation the cumulative average market adjusted return over a period that started five days prior to the announcement and ended 30 days after the stocks started trading by the new method was approximately 5 5 in addition we find positive liquidity externalities spillovers across related stocks and improvements in the value discovery process due to the improved trading method finally there was a positive association between liquidity gains and price appreciation

managers earnings forecasts and intra industry information transfers abstract the effect that voluntarily disclosed managers earnings forecasts have on the security prices of the announcing firms and other firms in the same industry is examined the results are consistent with information content in managers forecasts and with information transfer between forecast firms and other firms in the industry these inferences are drawn from firms abnormal returns computed from single and two index pricing models where the latter includes market and industry indexes interestingly while a positive information transfer is evident with market model residuals once industry cross sectional covariation in firms returns is removed no directional relation is apparent

price and trading volume reaction surrounding earnings announcements a closer examination the process of information dissemination and interpretation in securities markets is very complex and mostly unobservable while changes in prices and the amount of trading that takes place at the market level provide evidence of information processing verrecchia 1981 demonstrated that these are not sufficient to describe completely the dissemination of information and its interpretation by investors a descriptive study of price changes and trading volume however may still provide some insights into how investors react to information this paper is an empirical investigation of price changes and trading volume during the days surrounding the announcement of quarterly and annual earnings in the wall street journal wsj in the original paper investigating trading volume and price changes surrounding earnings announcements beaver 1968 was primarily concerned with whether the annual earnings announcement had information content i e led to changes in investors assessments of the probability distribution of future returns if there were any significant price changes and or trading volume during the week of the announcement then the annual earnings announcement was assumed to have had

the inflation tax in a convex model of equilibrium growth a general equilibrium monetary economy is described that exhibits equilibrium growth the production technology is consistent with jones and manuelli 1990 and rebelo 1991 the inflation tax and nominal interest rates are shown to be inversely related to the equilibrium growth rates of real variables until a critical point is reached at this point equilibrium growth is eliminated and the predictions of stockman 1981 and abel 1985 concerning the level effects of distortionary monetary policies appear for the nominal side of the model a version of the prediction of friedman 1969 is shown to hold for a particular balanced growth path following king and rebelo 1990 a linear growth version of the model is calibrated to illustrate the potentially large growth and welfare effects of moderate inflations

are sovereign debt secondary market returns sensitive to macroeconomic fundamentals evidence from the contemporary and interwar markets abstract the insensitivity of sovereign loan secondary market returns to macroeconomic fundamentals has been attributed to market illiquidity and the absence of publicly reported transactional prices during the 1920s and 1930s sovereign bonds were traded in an active market and weekly transactional prices were publicly available this paper shows that price changes from both eras are insensitive to unexpected changes in key external and country specific macroeconomic aggregates but that returns are moved by individual agent announcements that presage changes in future lending the results which contrast with studies of us equities indicate that the sovereignty of the issuer matters more than the type of debt contract

price based return comovement abstract similarly priced stocks move together stocks that undergo splits experience an increase in comovement with low priced stocks and a decrease in their comovement with high priced stocks price based comovement is not explained by economic fundamentals firm size or changes in liquidity or information diffusion the shift in comovement following splits is greater for large stocks high priced stocks and when investor sentiment is high in the full cross section price based portfolios explain variation in stock level returns after controlling for movements in the market and industry portfolios as well as portfolios based on size book to market transaction costs and return momentum the results suggest that investors categorize stocks based on price

the conditional performance of insider trades this paper estimates the performance of insider trades on the closely held oslo stock exchange ose during a period of lax enforcement of insider trading regulations our data permit construction of a portfolio that tracks all movements of insiders in and out of the ose firms using three alternative performance estimators in a time varying expected return setting we document zero or negative abnormal performance by insiders the results are robust to a variety of trade characteristics applying the performance measures to mutual funds on the ose we also document some evidence that the average mutual fund outperforms the insider portfolio corporate insiders i e individuals closely related to the firm either through direct employment or through participation on supervisory committees and boards will from time to time possess information about the firm s future cash f low which is not yet ref lected in the firm s stock price insiders who trade on the basis of such information tend to purchase stocks just prior to abnormal price increases and to sell just prior to abnormal price declines employing traditional event study techniques in which equal weighted average abnormal stock returns are estimated over a fixed time period following insider trades the extant empirical literature tends to support this buy low and sell high hypothesis for example jaffe 1974 and seyhun 1986 present evidence of significant abnormal stock returns following reported insider trades on the new york and the american stock exchanges similarly baesel and stein 1979 and fowler and rorke 1984 conclude that insiders on the toronto stock exchange earn abnormal profits and pope morris and peel 1990 reach a similar conclusion for firms in the united kingdom eckbo is with the stockholm school of economics and the norwegian school of economics and business administration smith is at the norwegian school of management we are grateful for the comments of mark britten jones oyvind bohren glen donaldson michael cooper thore johnsen kenneth khang lisa kramer ananth madhavan maurizio murgia rene stulz the editor raman uppal and in particular wayne ferson we also thank seminar participants at the central bank of norway concordia university london business school norwe

real wages inflation and labour productivity in australia this paper presents an analysis of real wages inflation and labour productivity interrelationships using cointegration granger causality and most importantly structural change tests applications of tests to australian data over the 1965 2007 period corroborate the presence of a structural break in 1985 and show that a 1 percent increase in manufacturing sector real wages led to an increase in manufacturing sector productivity of between 0 5 and 0 8 percent comparable estimates for the effect of inflation on manufacturing sector productivity have limited statistical significance granger causality test results suggest that real wages and inflation both granger cause productivity in the long run

the impact of environmental management on firm performance environmental management has the potential to play a pivotal role in the financial performance of the firm many individuals suggest that profitability is hurt by the higher production costs of environmental management initiatives while others cite anecdotal evidence of increased profitability a theoretical model is proposed that links strong environmental management to improved perceived future financial performance as measured by stock market performance the linkage to firm performance is tested empirically using financial event methodology and archival data of firm level environmental and financial performance significant positive returns were measured for strong environmental management as indicated by environmental performance awards and significant negative returns were measured for weak environmental management as indicated by environmental crises the implicit financial market valuation of these events also was estimated cross sectional analysis of the environmental award events revealed differences for first time awards and between industries first time award announcements were associated with greater increases in market valuation although smaller increases were observed for firms in environmentally dirty industries possibly indicative of market skepticism this linkage between environmental management and financial performance can be used by both researchers and practitioners as one measure of the benefits experienced by industry leaders and as one criterion against which to measure investment alternatives

on discrete choice models of housing demand abstract this paper explores several specifications of discrete choice models in estimating housing consumption for purposes of projection and policy simulation we view housing consumption comprehensively as it includes the choice between three types of homeownership five types of rented housing and as a ninth alternative not heading a household the familiar multinomial logit specification is rejected by several specification tests the paper therefore studies a variety of nested multinomial logit models of hierarchical choice that allow a richer substitution pattern among the very disparate housing choices enumerated above estimations of different nesting structures reveal strong and plausible differences among nesting structures

a two stage housing choice forecasting model a new housing choice forecasting model is developed here to answer a practical question how to forecast housing demand at a disaggregate level being different from the previous housing choice mod

wealth and risk effects of adopting deposit insurance in canada evidence of risk shifting by banks and trust companies this paper confirms that adopting explicit deposit insurance expanded risk shifting incentives for canadian banks and trust companies by transferring responsibility for monitoring non systematic risk to the canadian deposit insurance corporation cdic deposit insurance eliminated the compensation previously paid to large block stockholder monitors this transfer fueled a redistribution of insured institution stock from poorly diversified large block shareholders to diversified investors also subsequent changes in market volatility support the hypothesis that cdic insurance and the absorption of catastrophic risk it provided reduced systematic risk in the stock market as a whole even as it increased non systematic risk in the banking and trust company sector

the exchange rate exposure of u s multinationals this article examines the exposure of u s multinationals to foreign currency risk evidence is presented that the relationship between stock returns and exchange rates differs systematically across multinationals given these results the study focuses on the determinants of exchange rate exposure the comovements between stock returns and the value of the dollar is found to be positively related to the percentage of foreign operations of u s multinationals copyright 1990 by the university of chicago

an approach to statistical inference in cross sectional models with security abnormal returns as dependent variable several recent event studies test hypotheses about the association between event related abnormal security returns and firm characteristics using a three step procedure first forecast model parameters are estimated usually parameters of a market model second prediction errors or residuals are computed over an event period third prediction errors are regressed cross sectionally on firm characteristics hypothesized to influence the impact of the event on share values results of these regressions are used to draw inferences about the relation between abnormal returns and firm characteristics researchers who employ three step procedures acknowledge that crosssectional ols regressions lead to valid inferences if the disturbances are iid normal in cross section see for example leftwich 1981 p 23 and lustgarten 1982 p 138 while sufficient assumptions to draw valid inferences from ols regressions are clear these assumptions are violated if there is cross correlation and cross sectional heteroscedasticity in the firm return processes from which the prediction errors are estimated assumptions about the processes generating these prediction

the nominal share price puzzle the average nominal share prices of common stocks traded on the new york stock exchange have remained constant at approximately 35 per share since the great depression as a result of stock splits it is surprising that u s firms actively maintained constant nominal prices for their shares while general prices in the economy went up more than tenfold this is especially puzzling given that commissions paid by investors on trading ten 35 shares are about ten times those paid on a single 350 share we review potential explanations including signaling and optimal trading ranges and find that none of the existing theories are able to explain the observed constant nominal prices we suggest that the evidence is consistent with the idea that customs and norms can explain the nominal price puzzle

stock price effects of u s trade policy responses to japanese trading practices in semi conductors over much of the last decade the united states and japan have been embroiled in a trade dispute over access to japanese markets for semiconductors and downstream products this study examines stock price reactions for firms affected by a subset of events commencing with the filing of a section 301 petition by the u s semiconductor industry association alleging unfair practices by the japanese and culminating in the 1986 trade agreement the evidence suggests that u s semiconductor consumers as well as producers benefited from these events

the brazilian default announcement and the contagion effect hypothesis abstract in this paper we use stocl market data to test several hypotheses regarding possible investor reaction to the february 20 1987 brazilian default both the traditional event study approach and a generalized least squares regression using brazilian exposure as an explanatory variable for abnormal returns are used a sample of 46 bank holding companies all listed on the new york or american srock exchanges is divided into groups of no low and high brazilian exposure we find that the initial stock market reaction to the default represents a rational investor response to new bank specific information however the stock market reaction also reveals that not all relevant information was contained in the disclosure announcement further we find some evidence of a contagion effect related to size

factor models for binary financial data abstract researchers are often interested in modeling binary decisions made by firms e g the yes or no decisions to split the shares initiate a dividend or acquire another firm as functions of economy wide variables common factors although factor models for continuous dependent variables are used widely the toolkit of a financial researcher does not contain a generally accepted methodology that allows estimating factor models for binary dependent variables in this paper we study such a methodology using simulations we identify data characteristics that allow for reliable estimates of factor parameters and conclude that the methodology is appropriate for the panel datasets of the type often used in finance as an illustration we use the methodology to address a currently debated issue of common factors in firms decisions to split their shares

the market s response to recurring events the case of stock splits abstract a substantial body of literature suggests that stock splits convey information in this paper we extend this literature by examining firms that split their stock at least twice during 1970 1988 we focus on firms with multiple splits to provide evidence on the market s use of previous split experience in interpreting a recurring event our major findings are that stock price responses to both stock splits and post split earnings changes depend on earnings realizations observed after previous splits these findings support the conclusion that the market uses previous split experience to interpret a recurring event

volume for winners and losers taxation and other motives for stock trading capital gains taxes create incentives to trade our major finding is that turnover is higher for winners stocks the prices of which have increased than for losers which is not consistent with the tax prediction however the turnover in december and january is evidence of tax motivated trading there is a relatively high turnover for losers in december and for winners in january we conclude that taxes influence turnover but other motives for trading are more important we were unable to find evidence that changing the length of the holding period required to qualify for long term capital gains treatment affected turnover investors responding to the tax incentives in the capital gains laws should produce predictable patterns in the volume of trading in a stock but not necessarily in its price this study uses past price patterns as a proxy to measure the incentives to sell or avoid selling a stock and observes trading volumes to estimate the extent to which investors respond to these incentives past price patterns may influence trading volumes for other non tax related reasons as well these are also considered we find that past prices influence current incentives to trade through both tax and non tax motives winners tend to have higher abnormal volumes than losers this would be expected if non tax related motives were predominant however the influence of tax related motives on trading volume is shown by seasonal variations in the relationship between past price changes and turnover as predicted by tax induced trading theories the volume of losers is higher than normal in december and the volume of winners is higher than normal in january we found no evidence that trading volume was affected by changes in the length of the holding period required to qualify for long term capital gains investors reactions to capital gains taxes are important for several reasons first a comprehensive understanding of investor behavior would include both price and volume understanding the relationship between taxes and volume is a fruitful and convenient method of contributing to this subject the resource allocation consequences of capital gains taxes are controversial in part because

the market reaction to stock splits in this paper a model of market reaction to stock splits is presented and tested we argue that the announcement of a split sets off the following chain of events the market recognizes that subsequent to the reverse split ex day the daily number of transactions along with the raw volume of shares traded will increase decrease this increase in volume results in an increase in the noisiness of the security s return process the increase in noise raises the tax option value of the stock and it is this value that generates the announcement effect of stock splits empirical evidence using security returns daily trading volume and shareholder data strongly supports this theory the evidence in conjunction with this theory also agrees with extant literature that splits result in decreased liquidity but there is no evidence that this reduction in liquidity is priced stock splits have presented finance theorists with a conundrum these nonevents seem to be a purely cosmetic change nevertheless research shows that significant price reaction is attributable directly to splits recently grinblatt masulis and titman 12 show that even in clean cases i e where no other firm specific event coincides with a split announcement stock splits generate a positive abnormal return of close to three percent upon announcement and an additional one percent abnormal return on the ex day the primary contribution of this paper is to provide and empirically support a rational explanation for the split reverse split announcement effect a recent study by ohlson and penman 16 documents a statistical aberration that stock volatilities increase by an average of thirty five percent subsequent to split ex days in this paper we provide a direct statistical extension of ohlson and penman in three directions first we examine reverse splits and demonstrate that they exhibit reductions in volatility second we isolate the shift in volatility as between the nonsystematic and systematic components finally we establish a link between trading volume and the increased volatility copeland 9 shows that contrary to market folklore the liquidity of a stock is actually reduced by a split we provide a statistical extension to copeland by examining the volume pattern of reverse splits copeland observes a drop in split adjusted volume and concludes that liquidity has declined once again we show that the behavior of stocks that reverse split is opposite that of splitting stocks

didmca and bank market risk theory and evidence abstract this paper examines the theoretical and empirical consequences of the depository institutions deregulation and monetary control act of 1980 on the market risk of the us banking industry we survey several theoretical arguments linking deregulation of deposit interest rates to market based measures of bank risk capital market data for a sample of large commercial bank holding companies provides evidence that deregulation has accompanied increases in both systematic and nonsystematic measures of bank risk

an empirical analysis of the economic implications of fair value accounting for investment securities abstract this paper analyzes security returns of bank holding companies and insurance companies during periods surrounding the adoption of sfas 115 we find bank share prices were negatively affected by the examined events but find little share price reaction for insurance companies our evidence suggests banks were adversely affected by the standard because of problems with the standard s market value accounting approach cross sectional analysis of event period returns shows that banks that more frequently traded their investments with longer maturing investments and that are more fully hedged against interest rate changes were the most negatively impacted by the standard

fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model in a neoclassical growth model it is possible to make a case for public debt because a balanced growth path may be dynamically inefficient this paper shows that this possibility no longer holds in an endogenous growth model with constant external returns to capital it is shown that an increase in public debt reduces the growth rate so there always exists a future generation that will be harmed and that a reduction in public debt although it increases the growth rate cannot be pareto improving one current generation must be harmed

financial analysts forecasts of earnings a better surrogate for market expectations abstract the specification of the market expectation of accounting numbers is a common feature of many empirical studies in accounting and finance givoly and lakonishok 1979 found that financial analysts forecasts have information content this study evaluates the quality of analysts forecasts as surrogates for the market expectation of earnings and compares it with that of prediction models commonly used in research results indicate that prediction errors of analysts are more closely associated with security price movements suggesting that analysts forecasts provide a better surrogate for market expectations than forecasts generated by time series models the study also identifies factors that might contribute to the performance of the financial analysts forecasts the broadness of the information set employed by analysts and to a lesser extent their reliance on information released after the end of the fiscal year appear to be important contributors to their performance

stock dividends stock splits and signaling this paper provides evidence that firms signal their private information about future earnings by their choice of split factor split factors are increasing in earnings forecast errors after controlling for differences in pre split price and firm size furthermore price changes at stock dividend and split announcements are significantly correlated with split factors holding other factors constant and with earnings forecast errors these correlations suggest that management s choice of split factor signals private information about future earnings and that investors revise their beliefs about firm value accordingly the analysis also suggests however that announcement returns are significantly correlated with split factors after controlling for earnings forecast errors this suggests that earnings forecast errors measure management s private information about future earnings with error that split factors signal other valuation relevant attributes or that a signaling explanation is incomplete researchers have long puzzled over the role of stock splits and stock dividends a stock dividend or split increases the number of equity shares outstanding but has no effect on shareholders proportional ownership of shares it is therefore puzzling that firms engage in these transactions and even more so that stock prices rise on average when these transactions are announced as grinblatt masulis and titman 1984 document the significant positive announcement effects led grinblatt masulis and titman hereafter gmt to hypothesize that firms signal information about their future earnings or equity values through their split decisions to date this hypothesis has met with limited support gmt conclude that the announcement returns cannot be explained by forecasts of imminent increases in cash dividends because they observe similar stock price behavior in firms that do not pay dividends our study provides further evidence on the signaling hypothesis by testing whether stock dividends and splits convey information about future earnings and by testing whether the split factor itself is the signal the notion that the split factor may act as a signal has institutional as well as theoretical support practitioners have long contended that the purpose of stock splits is to move a firm s share price into an optimal trading range baker and gallagher 1980 who surveyed chief financial officers of firms that split their shares report that 94 of their sample indicated their stock splits moved their

inflation and growth in an open economy this paper examines the relationship between growth and inflation in an open economy where private agents can transfer resources abroad to obtain endogenous growth we assume that the international credit market is imperfect we show that when the governments behave rationally the growth and inflation rates should not be correlated and that the optimal inflation rate can be found by setting the interest rate elasticity of money holdings equal to the tax rate elasticity of the tax base

the share price puzzle we document substantial variation in the prices of common stocks in u s markets due to firms selecting particular price ranges for their shares cross sectional evidence indicates that variables consistent with merton s model of capital market equilibrium explain roughly two thirds of this variation in share prices in addition measures of trading range and share price appreciation predict stock splits and the investor base of firms that split their stock increases compared to other firms we conclude that firms manage share price levels to increase the value of the firm

differential impact on bank valuation of interstate banking law changes abstract by 1988 forty seven states and the district of columbia had enacted legislation liberalizing interstate banking restrictions this study systematically investigates the market impact of these law changes on bank stock prices using an event parameter event study methodology we assess the differential impact on in state and out of state banks to a given state law change we also assess the differential impact of law changes upon banks included in or excluded from any regional compacts among states money center banks are treated as a special class of out of state or excluded banks we find that out of state and out of region banks excluding money center banks have profited most from these law changes and money center banks have been least positively affected both at the time of enactment and at the effective date of the law changes we attribute these findings to the opening of interstate banking opportunities to other than money center and foreign banks thus leveling the playing field

the market reaction to the choice of accounting method for stock splits and large stock dividends prior research has used inaccurate classification rules to distinguish between stock splits and stock dividends the crsp classification of two for one stock distributions agrees with the actual accounting treatment only 23 of the time in addition the accounting treatment impacts the announcement period reaction two for one distributions accounted for as stock dividends are associated with five day announcement period returns of 2 70 significantly greater that the 0 93 announcement returns for distributions accounted for as stock splits announcement returns are positively related to earnings growth in the two years following the distribution for stock dividend firms but not for stock split firms the accounting choice appears to be used to confirm management s private information about future earnings revealed at the time of the distribution announcement

the effect of additions to or deletions from the tse 300 index on canadian share prices in this paper we examine shares that have been added to or deleted from the tse 300 index to determine whether abnormal price movements have occurred we apply the dummy variable approach to event study methodology and adjust the estimated standard errors for arbitrary heteroscedasticity and clustering of events we also use a non parametric method of inference like authors of u s studies we find that the market reacts positively to inclusion and negatively to deletion albeit not significantly in the latter case the information content of inclusion does not account for the entire share price response lending support to the hypothesis of increased purchases by index funds jel classification g14 ce texte examine les titres qui ont ete ajoutes ou soustraits de l indice tse 300 pour determiner si des mouvements anormaux de prix s en sont suivis on utilise l approche des variables fictives dans le cadre d une methodologie qui etudie l impact d evenements et on ajuste les erreurs standards pour tenir compte de l heteroskedasticite arbitraire et de l agglomeration d evenements on utilise aussi une methode non parametrique d inference comme dans des etudes americaines du meme type on decouvre que les marche reagit positivement a l inclusion et negativement a la soustraction d un titre mais que l effet n est pas significatif dans ce dernier cas le contenu informationnel de l inclusion n explique pas entierement le mouvement dans le prix du titre ce qui apporte un support a l hypothese de l impact des achats accrus par des fonds indexes

dividend changes and security prices this paper analyzes the effect of unexpected dividend changes on the values of common stock preferred stock and bonds two potential effects are identified a wealth transfer effect and a signalling effect previous studies have shown that positive negative dividend change announcements produce positive negative common stock price changes whereas these findings have been attributed to the signalling aspect of dividends they are also consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis based on the announcement day returns of common and preferred stock and bond holders it is demonstrated that the primary factor influencing security returns in response to dividend changes is market signalling a wealth transfer effect is not necessarily ruled out but if it exists it is dominated by the signalling effect financial decisions may have at least two distinct effects on the distribution of total firm value among different classes of securities first if claim holders are inadequately protected by me first rules a financing decision may result in wealth transfers among different classes of securities second if the market possesses imperfect information a financing decision may signal information to the market concerning firm value and thereby influence the values of all security classes many recent empirical studies have demonstrated that a significantly positive relationship exists between the direction of dividend changes and announcement day common stock returns in each case the authors attribute this relationship to the information conveyed to the market in dividend change announcements however this relationship is also consistent with the hypothesis that dividend changes under certain conditions may result in wealth transfers between debt and equity holders in this study the information and wealth transfer effects are discussed as they pertain to dividend payments and the influence of dividend decisions on the value of different security classes is investigated empirically

signaling managerial optimism through stock dividends and stock splits a reexamination of the retained earnings hypothesis the retained earnings hypothesis predicts that stock distributions accounted for by reducing retained earnings are a more credible signal of managerial optimism than stock distributions that do not reduce retained earnings this study examines the costs of false signaling that are a necessary precondition for the hypothesis and finds them to be generally very small the absence of the requisite costs of false signaling calls the validity of the hypothesis into question for most firms however prior studies have reported broad based market evidence consistent with the retained earnings hypothesis to resolve this apparent inconsistency this study replicates and extends tests of the retained earnings hypothesis contained in three prior studies it shows that the findings in support of the retained earnings hypothesis can be attributed to specification and measurement choices that bias the results in favor of the hypothesis the support for the retained earnings hypothesis is weaker when the sources of the bias are removed however some support for the hypothesis remains for a limited set of distributing firms

surprise vs anticipated information announcements are prices affected differently an investigation in the context of stock splits we compare the long run reaction to anticipated and surprise information announcements using stock splits although there is underreaction in both cases anticipated splits are treated differently to those that are unforeseen after anticipated splits cumulative abnormal returns peak at one and a half times the level observed after unanticipated splits although the time taken for the announcement to be absorbed into prices is the same we explain the difference in underreaction by the degree to which split announcements are believed and hence invested in the favorable signal conveyed in forecast splits is more credible owing to their better pre split performance resulting in a far more pronounced underreaction effect

joint choice of tenure and dwelling type a multinomial logit analysis for the city of chongju this paper explores the plausible variables that influence choices in the chongju housing market a joint model of tenure and dwelling type is estimated within the multinomial logit framework the