short selling and the price discovery process we show that stock prices are more accurate when short sellers are more active first in a large panel of nyse listed stocks intraday informational efficiency of prices improves with greater shorting flow second at monthly and annual horizons more shorting flow accelerates the incorporation of public information into prices third greater shorting flow reduces post earnings announcement drift for negative earnings surprises fourth short sellers change their trading around extreme return events in a way that aids price discovery and reduces divergence from fundamental values these results are robust to various econometric specifications and their magnitude is economically meaningful the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

trading volume and information revelation in stock markets i consider a market microstructure model in which the rates of public and private informa tion arrival are probabilistic the latter depends on the availability of private information that is stochastically changing over time in equilibrium traders estimate the availability of private information using past periods trading volume and use this information to adjust their strategies the time series properties include contemporaneous correlation between price variability and volume and autocorrelation in price variability similar to garch the model explains why trading volume contains useful information for predicting volatil ity and provides predictions on the limit and market order placement strategies of traders

speculative investor behavior and learning as traders learn about the true distribution of some asset s dividends a speculative premium occurs as each trader anticipates the possibility of reselling the asset to another trader before complete learning has occurred small differences in prior beliefs lead to large speculative premiums during the learning process this phenomenon helps explain a paradox concerning the pricing of initial public offerings the result casts light on the significance of the common prior assumption in economic models

financial wealth consumption smoothing and income shocks arising from job loss one of the reasons for setting up an unemployment insurance scheme is to allow job losers to smooth consumption we test for the impact of unemployment benefits on changes in household food expenditure of individuals who have recently experienced a job loss we also study the relationship between unemployment benefits and the financial wealth of the unemployed from our empirical analysis we conclude that for households without financial wealth at the time of job loss unemployment benefits help to smooth food consumption for households running debt before job loss there is evidence that lower replacement rates lead to a postponement of debt repayment

asset based unemployment insurance this article studies a model of consumption savings and job search in which a borrowing constraint limits self insurance the government administers the unemployment insurance program that may condition on an individual s asset position but not on her efforts of finding a job to compensate for the impediments to self insurance benefit payments should optimally be set higher at lower wealth levels and peak for borrowing constrained individuals with zero liquid funds a quantitative exercise reveals that the u s unemployment insurance program is surprisingly close to optimal for the asset poor but far too generous for wealthier individuals

pension reform and gender gaps in latin america what are the policy options abstract several latin american countries have implemented structural reforms in their social security pension systems these reforms have modified the traditional public pay as you go defined benefit payg db schemes introducing multipillar systems where fully funded defined contribution ff dc schemes play an important role gender gaps in coverage and benefits under pagy db and ff dc schemes have been one of the policy issues missing in most of the reforms in part because it has been certainly underresearched in the literature this paper studies the sources of pension gender gaps and provides the pros and cons of a set of policy options that may contribute to overcoming the gaps found in both schemes these policies are divided on the one hand into specific policies that directly affect the determination of pension benefits by modifying formula design or eligibility conditions and on the other hand policies that indirectly affect the level of benefits and the likelihood of being entitled to them by changing incentives in labor market conditions

optimal welfare to work programs a welfare to work wtw program is a mix of government expenditures on various labour market policies targeted to the unemployed e g unemployment insurance m job search monitoring m social assistance sa wage subsidies this paper provides a dynamic principal agent framework suitable for analysing chief features of an optimal wtw program such as the sequence and duration of the different policies the dynamic pattern of payments along the unemployment spell and the emergence of taxes subsidies upon re employment the optimal program endogenously generates an absorbing policy of last resort social assistance characterized by a constant lifetime payment and no active participation by the agent human capital depreciation is a necessary condition for policy transitions to be part of an optimal wtw program the typical sequence of policies is quite simple the program starts with standard ui then switches into monitored search and finally into sa the optimal benefits are decreasing during unemployment insurance and constant during both jm and sa whereas taxes subsidies can be either increasing or decreasing with duration during ui they must decrease increase during a phase of jm in a calibration exercise we use our model to analyse quantitatively the features of the optimal program for the u s economy with respect to the existing u s system the optimal wtw scheme delivers sizeable welfare gains to unskilled workers because the incentives to search for a job can be retained even while delivering more insurance and using costly monitoring less intensively

short sale constraints divergence of opinion and asset values evidence from the laboratory the overvaluation hypothesis miller 1977 predicts that a stocks are overvalued when there are short selling restrictions and that b the overvaluation is increasing in the degree of divergence of opinion we design an experiment that allows us to test these predictions in the laboratory our results support the hypothesis that prices are higher in the presence of short selling constraints the overvaluation does not depend on the degree of divergence of opinion

trading halts and market activity an analysis of volume at the open and the close this paper analyzes how the daily opening and closing of financial markets affect trading volume we model the desire to trade at the beginning and end of the day as a function of overnight return volatility nyse data from 1933 88 indicate that closing volume is positively related to expected overnight volatility while volume at the open is positively related to both expected and unexpected volatility from the previous night we interpret the symmetric response of trading at the open and the close to expected volatility as being due to investor heterogeneities in the ability to bear risk when the market is closed this desire of investors to trade prior to market closings indicates a cost of mandating marketwide circuit breakers

effects of short sale ban on financial liquidity in crisis and non crisis periods a propensity score matching approach abstractwe investigate the impact of banning the short selling shorting ban on liquidity of stocks traded in the hong kong stock exchange hkex on the basis of the 20 revisions of the designated list of shortable stocks from january 2006 to december 2010 in order to avoid endogeneity due to the liquidity adaptive implementation of the ban policy we use the propensity score matching of shortable and unshortable stocks and apply the double and triple difference methods embedded in the fixed effect panel regression for the matched data using two outcome variables for illiquidity the amihud price impact measure and the bid ask spread our results suggests that the shorting ban in this market may have a liquidity supporting effect in terms of the price impact with no regard to market tranquility and in terms of the spread with regard to the 2008 2009 financial crisis

saving and portfolio allocation before and after job loss we investigate the development of household labor income financial wealth and asset holdings over a 9 year period around job loss using unique administrative panel data from norway consistent with predictions from theory the data show additional saving and a shift toward safer assets in the years leading up to unemployment and depletion of savings after job loss in the years after job loss the households after tax labor income is reduced by about usd 12 500 over the same time period households deplete usd 3 000 of their financial assets of which one third is accumulated prior to the job loss this suggests that at least some households can foresee and prepare for the upcoming unemployment which indicates that private savings can to some extent serve as a substitute for publicly provided unemployment insurance

does short selling amplify price declines or align stocks with their fundamental values critics of short selling argue that short sellers amplify price declines by targeting firms with falling prices in an unwarranted manner contrary to this viewpoint we find that increases in short interest for firms following a price decline are associated with measures of overpricing based on financial statement analysis our results extend to short selling activity following marketwide declines we also find evidence consistent with the profitability of short selling following price declines being driven by valuation based positions overall our findings suggest short sellers primarily undertake valuation based strategies following price declines and have implications for regulators limiting short selling following price declines is likely to impede efficient price discovery this paper was accepted by mary barth accounting

price discovery in euro area sovereign credit markets and the ban on naked cds abstract the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area saw credit spreads on sovereign bonds and credit default swaps cds surge for a number of member states the rise in sovereign yields was accompanied by a significant increase in sovereign cds market activity this pattern raised concerns that destabilising speculation via outright short selling of cds so called naked cds was behind the increase in bond yields in response policy makers introduced a ban on naked cds trading we investigate the effect of the ban on the price discovery process of sovereign credit risk contrasting results for the post ban period with those obtained prior to the ban we use intraday data on sovereign cds and bonds across a number of euro area countries our first main finding is that the cds market dominates the bond market in terms of price discovery that is cds premia in most cases adjust quicker to reflect new information than bond spreads this result holds also when taking into account transaction costs our second main finding is that the ban on short selling did not alter price discovery dynamics or reduce the efficiency of the market finally we find that prior to the ban cds spreads were persistently higher than bond credit spreads even after controlling for transaction costs this points to the presence of market frictions that limit the ability of arbitrage forces to fully close pricing gaps between the two markets however these pricing discrepancies were in many cases largely eliminated following the introduction of the ban

learning from social security reforms two different cases chile and argentina abstract this paper compares two of the most important structural reforms of social security in latin america the chilean private fully funded system and the public private argentinean integrated pay as you go fully funded program chile was the first country in the world to completely privatize the old public pension system this landmark reform has had a strong influence on other pension reforms not only in latin america but also in other developing and developed countries the argentinian model has important differences in comparison with the chilean model 1 a more inter and intragenerational solidarity 2 b relatively lower transition costs to be covered by the state 3 c higher coverage of self employed workers 4 d a more comprehensive regulatory framework and 5 e less gender inequality given these elements the argentinian pension model offers new insights to countries currently reforming their pension systems the paper concludes addressing important questions regarding the weaknesses of the new argentinian model

why does the option to stock volume ratio predict stock returns we use data on signed option volume to study which components of option volume predict stock returns and resolve the seemingly inconsistent results in the literature we find no evidence that trades related to synthetic short positions in the underlying stocks contain more information than trades related to synthetic long positions purchases of calls that open new positions are the strongest predictor of returns followed by call sales that close out existing purchased call positions overall our results indicate that the role of options in providing embedded leverage is the most important channel why option trading predicts stock returns

skewness short interest and the efficiency of stock prices abstractwe examine the association between return skewness short interest and the efficiency of stock prices since preferences for skewness have been shown to impact asset prices we examine how skewness relates to market efficiency we find that stocks with positive skewness are less efficient which might be explained by investor preferences for positive skewness next we document that short interest reduces both total skewness and idiosyncratic skewness finally while research has shown that short selling can improve the efficiency of markets generally we show that short interest s ability to improve market efficiency is strongest in stocks with the highest skewness

does unemployment insurance crowd out spousal labor supply previous research on unemployment insurance ui has emphasized the program s effect on individual search behavior this state contingent income may also reduce the labor supply of family members during the unemployment spell we investigate this question within the context of wives labor supply responses to their husbands unemployment spells we find strong crowdout of this form of family self insurance our estimates imply that for each dollar of ui receipt wives earn up to 73 cents less the reduction in spousal hours of work is over 40 as large as previous estimates of the effect of ui on search time of husbands

the effects of extended unemployment insurance over the business cycle evidence from regression discontinuity estimates over 20 years one goal of extending the duration of unemployment insurance ui in recessions is to increase ui coverage in the face of longer unemployment spells although it is a common concern that such extensions may themselves raise nonemployment durations it is not known how recessions would affect the magnitude of this moral hazard to obtain causal estimates of the differential effects of ui in booms and recessions this article exploits the fact that in germany potential ui benefit duration is a function of exact age which is itself invariant over the business cycle we implement a regression discontinuity design separately for 20 years and correlate our estimates with measures of the business cycle we find that the nonemployment effects of a month of additional ui benefits are at best somewhat declining in recessions yet the ui exhaustion rate and therefore the additional coverage provided by ui extensions rises substantially during a downturn the ratio of these two effects represents the nonemployment response of workers weighted by the probability of being affected by ui extensions hence our results imply that the effective moral hazard effect of ui extensions is significantly lower in recessions than in booms using a model of job search with liquidity constraints we also find that in the absence of market wide effects the net social benefits from ui extensions can be expressed either directly in terms of the exhaustion rate and the nonemployment effect of ui durations or as a declining function of our measure of effective moral hazard copyright 2012 oxford university press

market sidedness insights into motives for trade initiation we infer motives for trade initiation from market sidedness we define trading as more two sided one sided if the correlation between the number of buyer and seller initiated trades increases decreases and assess changes in sidedness relative to a control sample around events that identify trade initiators consistent with asymmetric information trading is more one sided before merger news consistent with belief heterogeneity trading is more two sided before earnings and macro announcements with greater dispersion in analyst forecasts and after news with larger announcement surprises we examine the codeterminacy of sidedness bid ask spread volatility number of trades and order imbalance

the family gap for young women in the united states and britain can maternity leave make a difference in the united states and britain there is a family gap between the wages of mothers and other women differential returns to marital and parental status explain 40 50 of the gender gap another 30 40 is explained by women s lower levels of work experience and lower returns to experience taking advantage of quasi experiments in job protected maternity leave in the united states and britain this article finds that women who had leave coverage and returned to work after childbirth received a wage premium that offset the negative wage effects of children

pension reform personal pensions and gender differences in pension coverage abstract the personal pension scheme introduced in chile in 1981 has acquired a paradigmatic role for pension reform in less developed and developed countries in contrast to the significant gender gap in private pension coverage observed in developed countries in chile women s participation in the personal pension scheme is marginally higher than men s using cross section data the paper analyzes the determinants of personal pension plan contribution in chile and their effects it concludes that women s strong pension propensities and pension plan design explain in large part the absence of a gender gap in private pension coverage in chile

borrowing during unemployment unsecured debt as a safety net this paper examines whether unsecured credit markets help disadvantaged households supplement temporary shortfalls in earnings by investigating how unsecured debt responds to unemployment induced earnings losses results indicate that very low asset households those in the bottom decile of total assets do not borrow in response to these shortfalls however other low asset households do borrow increasing unsecured debt by more than 11 cents per dollar of earnings lost in contrast wealthy households do not increase unsecured debt during unemployment the evidence suggests that very low asset households do not have sufficient access to unsecured credit to smooth consumption over transitory unemployment spells

cash on hand and the duration of job search quasi experimental evidence from norway we investigate the causal eect of lump sum severance payments on job search duration in norway identi cation is achieved by exploiting dis continuities in the available amounts along the age and time dimensions the results can be interpreted as evidence of liquidity constraints thus suggesting that in the spirit of the baily chetty model of optimal unem ployment insurance current bene ts are too low since norway has one of the most equitable wealth distributions and one of the most generous ui systems of all oecd economies this suggests that liquidity constraints are likely to matter also in other oecd economies

can welfare abuse be welfare improving abstract i analyze quantitatively a model of labor search with unemployment insurance ui savings voluntary quits and various labor attachment requirements in particular i study welfare consequences of a powerful reform giving ui entitlement to workers quitting their jobs voluntarily in order to search for another one results of the model calibrated to the us labor market show that there may be significant welfare gains associated with pursuing a generous entitlement policy for quitters as compared to the us status quo moreover i employ the assumption of monetary search costs and show that it can explain the empirically documented unemployed worker search behavior finally by inducing different unemployment benefit eligibility requirements the model identifies a concrete policy that could help us understand differences in the unemployment rate match quality and income inequality between the us and europe

short sale constraints information acquisition and asset prices abstract during financial crises financial market regulators often restrict short selling to support prices and curb volatility however evidence suggests that short selling bans during the turmoil in financial markets in 2007 2009 failed to achieve regulators goals we analyze a model of costly private information acquisition and asset pricing under short sale constraints to examine a possible cause of this failure we show that the constraints increase return volatility by adversely affecting the production of private information when investors are highly risk averse or are holding highly correlated risky assets the distortion in private information production arising from imposing short sale constraints leads to undervaluation implying that imposing short selling bans during economic crises not only fails to curb volatility but also may fail to support prices

recent trends in insured and uninsured unemployment is there an explanation this paper explores the recent decline in the fraction of unemployed workers who receive unemployment insurance benefits using march current population surveys we compare the fraction who are potentially eligible for benefits with the fraction who receive them the decline in insured unemployment is almost entirely due to a decline in the early 1980s in the takeup rate for benefits we analyze the determinants of the takeup rate using both aggregated state level data and micro data at least half the decline is due to an increasing share of unemployment in states with lower takeup rates

reexamining the consumption smoothing benefits of unemployment insurance abstract the great recession spurred renewed interest in the moral hazard effects of the unemployment insurance ui program however little research has focused on determining its benefits this paper examines the consumption smoothing benefit of the ui program over the last 40 years finding strong evidence of heterogeneity in this effect over time in particular the effects of ui are smaller in the 1990s compared with the 1970s the 1990s were unique because of the long period of low unemployment rates as well as relatively low ui program generosity thus we test whether the consumption smoothing effects vary by the state unemployment rate and average program generosity we find suggestive evidence that the effects are larger when the state unemployment rate and average generosity are high together these two dimensions can explain around 30 46 of the differential effect that we find in the 1990s

short selling constraints as cause for price distortions an experimental study in this paper we explore the influence of the possibility to short stocks and or borrow money in laboratory markets a key innovation of our study is that subjects can simultaneously trade two risky assets on two double auction markets allowing us to differentiate between assets with relatively high versus low capitalization divergence of opinions is created by providing each trader with noisy information on the intrinsic values of both assets we find that when borrowing money or shorting stocks is restricted prices are systematically distorted specifically stocks with high low capitalization are traded at lower higher prices than their fundamental value lifting the restrictions leads to more efficient prices and more liquidity thereby also lowering volatility and bid ask spreads

stock prices and volume the authors undertake a comprehensive investigation of price and volume co movement using daily new york stock exchange data from 1928 to 1987 they adjust the data to take into account well known calendar effects and long run trends to describe the process they use a seminonparametric estimate of the joint density of current price change and volume conditional on past price changes and volume four empirical regularities are found 1 positive correlation between conditional volatility and volume 2 large price movements are followed by high volume 3 conditioning on lagged volume substantially attenuates the leverage effect and 4 after conditioning on lagged volume there is a positive risk return relation article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

unemployment fears and deflationary spirals the interaction of incomplete markets and sticky nominal wages is shown to magnify business cycles even though these two features in isolation dampen them during recessions fears of unemployment stir up precautionary sentiments which induces agents to save more the additional savings may be used as investments in both a productive asset equity and an unproductive asset money but even a small rise in money demand has important consequences the desire to hold money puts deflationary pressure on the economy which provided that nominal wages are sticky increases wage costs and reduces firm profits lower profits repress the desire to save in equity which increases the fear of unemployment and so on this is a powerful mechanism which causes the model to behave differently from both its complete markets version and a version with incomplete markets but without aggregate uncertainty in contrast to previous results in the literature agents uniformly prefer non trivial levels of unemployment insurance

short sales constraints and price discovery evidence from the hong kong market short sales practices in the hong kong stock market are unique in that only stocks on a list of designated securities can be sold short by analyzing the price effects following the addition of individual stocks to the list we find that short sales constraints tend to cause stock overvaluation and that the overvaluation effect is more dramatic for individual stocks for which wider dispersion of investor opinions exists these findings are consistent with miller s 1977 intuition and other optimism models we also document higher volatility and less positive skewness of individual stock returns when short sales are allowed the question of how short sales impact capital markets is highly controversial with short sale regulations varying widely across countries and capital markets 1 although short selling has been carried out for years in major financial markets around the world its effects on market efficiency especially on pricing efficiency remain of interest to financial researchers miller 1977 theorizes that in the presence of short sales constraints security prices tend to reflect a more optimistic valuation than the average opinion of potential investors and thus tend to be upward biased this overvaluation argument is based on two conditions 1 a security s short sales are either prohibited or costly and 2 investors have heterogeneous beliefs or information about the security s value the underlying intuition is quite straightforward pessimistic investors are forced to sit out of the market when short sales are not available and thus some negative information is not reflected in prices enabling enthusiastic buyers to bid prices above the level that average investors perceive as fair this argument has significant implications for market efficiency theories since one of the major functions of capital markets is price discovery indeed an efficient market should be a market in which prices always

the incidence of payroll taxation evidence from chile i provide new evidence on the incidence of payroll taxation by examining the experience of chile before and after the privatization of its social security system this policy change led to a sharp exogenous reduction in the payroll tax burden on chilean firms on average payroll tax rates fell by 25 over 6 years using data from a census of manufacturing firms i estimate that the incidence of payroll taxation is fully on wages with no effect on employment this finding is robust to a variety of empirical approaches to the problem of measurement error in firm level measures of taxes worker

a quantitative analysis of unemployment benefit extensions abstract extensions of unemployment insurance ui benefits have been implemented in response to the great recession this paper measures the effect of these extensions on the unemployment rate using a calibrated structural model featuring job search and consumption saving decisions skill depreciation and ui eligibility the ongoing ui benefit extensions are found to have raised the unemployment rate by 1 4 percentage points which is about 30 of the observed increase since 2007 moreover the contribution of the ui benefit extensions to the elevated unemployment rate increased during 2009 2011 while the number of vacancies recovered the successive extensions kept search intensity down

market created risk we develop a multiperiod rational expectations model of securities market equilibrium in which equilibrium prices may move between periods even though it is common knowledge that no new information has arrived about ultimate security payoffs this happens because investors know they have imperfect information about the endowments of other investors and this knowledge affects their probability beliefs about the prices that will prevail at the intermediate trading date these beliefs are reflected in the equilibrium at the initial trading date when investors focus on the probabilities of intermediate capital gains and losses rather than ultimate payoffs virtually all models of the pricing of securities employ some notion of market equilibrium so for prices to fluctuate something in the equilibrium must change since equilibrium in an informationally efficient market implies that market clearing prices reflect all available information about future securities payoffs it seems to be frequently assumed that observed jumps in prices ought under the efficient market hypothesis to reflect the arrival of new information about future cash payoffs to securities the major theme of this paper is to examine a multiperiod model of securities market equilibrium in which equilibrium prices may change sharply between periods even if it is common knowledge that no new information about ultimate payoffs has arrived and all investors are rational and make full use of all available information in our model the new information that leads to a price change is information about how much of the known total supply of risky securities is held by investors of different preferences for this model to produce intertemporal price fluctuation in equilibrium two phenomena must occur firstly the initially unknown composition of the market must not be revealed by equilibrium prices at the initial trading date secondly despite this the true composition of the market must at least partially determine prices at a later trading date they key to both these phenomena lies in the difference in investor behavior when they anticipate revising their current portfolio holdings in response to future price changes as compared to when they choose portfolios on the basis of receiving the ultimate cash payoffs to the securities they buy in practice few investors anticipating holding financial securities to their eventual liquidation by the issuer short term debt or debt close to maturity would be the major exception few equity securities relative to the total supply

when r2 meets the short sales constraints we examine the short selling in the hong kong stock market and find that after the lift of short sales constraint the r2 increases contradicting the traditional wisdom that r2 is a proxy of price inefficiency moreover the change of r2 is from the decrease in idiosyncratic volatility

efficiency and the bear short sales and markets around the world we analyze cross sectional and time series information from 46 equity markets around the world to consider whether short sales restrictions affect the efficiency of the market and the distributional characteristics of returns to individual stocks and market indices we find some evidence that prices incorporate negative information faster in countries where short sales are allowed and practiced a common conjecture by regulators is that short sales restrictions can reduce the relative severity of a market panic we find strong evidence that in markets where short selling is either prohibited or not practiced market returns display significantly less negative skewness

short sales and speed of price adjustment evidence from the hong kong stock market abstract we present empirical evidence that short sales contribute to market efficiency by increasing the speed of price adjustment to not only private public firm specific information but also market wide information shortable stocks are characterized by weaker trade continuity and stronger quote reversals they adjust faster to new information than non shortable counterparts these findings remain robust even in an up market condition in which short sales are not binding the amount of information incorporated in each trade is also significantly higher for shortable than non shortable stocks in both up and down market conditions after controlling for firm size trading volume liquidity price and option trading short sales stand out as one of the significant factors that speed up the price adjustment

the informational effects of restrictions on short sales some empirical evidence in a world of heterogeneous investors a competitive financial market has two major functions first it is the mechanism by which ownership of the existing supply of risky assets is distributed among investors this is the role which is analyzed in detail by the standard capital asset pricing model capm and its many extensions the second important market function is to aggregate the diverse information held by different investors into a single price most versions of the capm eliminate the information aggregation function by assuming that investors hold homogeneous beliefs with respect to the probability distribution of asset returns exceptions which deal with some aspects of the problem are lintner 7 grossman 4 grossman and stiglitz 5 and figlewski 1 3

price convexity and skewness this paper develops a model in which investors who are prohibited from short selling agree to disagree on the precision of a publicly observed signal the model implies that the equilibrium price is a convex function of the public signal the model predicts that 1 the stock price reacts more to good news than to bad news 2 the skewness of stock returns is positively correlated with contemporaneous returns but negatively correlated with lagged returns 3 short sale constraints increase rather than decrease skewness and 4 disagreement about information precision increases skewness empirical tests conducted find supportive evidence for all these predictions

short sales and stock price crash risk evidence from an emerging market abstract using a regulatory change in china as an exogenous shock we find that the removal of short sales constraints increases stock price crash risk this relation is attenuated when firms suffer less from information asymmetry highlighting the effect of interaction between uninformed and informed investors

are foreign exchange forecasts rational new evidence from survey data abstract tests of rationality in foreign exchange markets have been inconclusive because of disagreement over the relevant asset pricing model this paper uses a newly available set of data on foreign exchange expectations to directly test the rationality of four foreign currency markets overall the results reject the rational expectations hypothesis

the relation between price changes and trading volume a survey this paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets and makes four contributions first two empiri cal relations are established volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and in equity markets to the price change per se second previous theoretical research on the price volume relation is summarized and critiqued and major insights are emphasized third a simple model ofthe price volume relation is proposed that is consis tent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations and fourth several directions for future research are identified

measuring investors opinion divergence numerous proxies for divergence of investors opinions have been suggested in the empirical accounting and finance literatures i offer a new proxy constructed from proprietary limit order and market order data this allows me to capture additional information on investors private valuations proxies from the extant literature based on publicly available data do not contain such information given my new measure i ask which of the extant proxies correlates best with it in my regression analysis unexplained volume is the best proxy for opinion divergence conditioning on various firm specific and order specific characteristics generally does not change this conclusion the main exception is the sample of firms without ibes forecast dispersion data for which bid ask spread is the best proxy for opinion divergence factor analysis also suggests that unexplained volume is the preferred proxy for opinion divergence

optimal unemployment insurance this paper considers the design of an optimal unemployment insurance system the problem is modeled as a repeated principalagent problem involving a risk averse agent the unemployed worker and a risk neutral principal which cannot monitor the agent s search effort the optimal long term contract subject to the associated incentive constraints is characterized this contract involves a replacement ratio that decreases throughout the unemployment spell and a wage tax after reemployment that under some mild regularity conditions increases with the lenght of the unemployment spell some numerical results are presented that suggest that the gains from switching to this optimal unemployment insurance scheme could be quite large the performance of this optimal contract is also compared to alternative liquidity provision mechanisms

optimal unemployment insurance a survey unemployment insurance improves the allocation of risk bearing at the cost of reduced incentives for work in the past two decades a branch of the literature has emerged that deals with the optimal design of unemployment insurance this literature has been influenced by ideas and methods from information economics and by theories from labor economics the result is a collection of models designed to highlight a variety of issues pertaining to the provision of optimal unemployment insurance this paper reviews these issues summarizes the relevant literature assesses its accomplishments and points out problems that require further study

middle class without a net savings financial fragility and preferences over social insurance in this article we show that it is crucial to distinguish between liquid and illiquid wealth to understand how voters form preferences toward social insurance many households are financially frag

unemployment insurance and unemployment spells this paper tests the effects of the level and length of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment durations the paper particularly studies individual behavior during the weeks just prior to when benefits lapse higher unemployment insurance benefits are found to have a strong negative effect on the probability of leaving unemployment however the probability of leaving unemployment rises dramatically just prior to when benefits lapse individual data are used with accurate information of spell durations and the level and length of benefits the semiparametric estimation techniques used in the paper yield more plausible estimates than conventional approaches and provide useful diagnostics copyright 1990 by the econometric society

unemployment insurance and capital accumulation abstract in this paper i examine a model economy with production search and unemployment insurance the introduction of capital into the economy of wang and williamson j monetary econom 49 7 2001 1337 generates the result that optimal replacement ratios are always zero the result arises from the decline in aggregate activity caused by unemployment insurance both capital and labor inputs to production fall when benefits rise unlike most of the literature i compute explicitly the cost of the transition path agents are made better off by switching to a steady state with no unemployment insurance but the welfare gain is approximately cut in half only the very poor and unemployed suffer welfare losses along the transition path i then briefly investigate the implications of negative replacement ratios

arbitrage short sales and financial innovation the authors describe a model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets in which firms can innovate by issuing arbitrary costly securities when short sales are prohibited firms behave competitively and equilibrium is efficient when short sales are allowed these classical properties may fail if unlimited short sales are allowed imperfect competition may persist even when the number of potential innovators is large if limited short sales are allowed perfect competition may obtain in the limit but equilibrium can be inefficient because of the presence of an externality the private benefits of innovation for firms differ from the social benefits copyright 1991 by the econometric society

connecting supply short sellers and stock returns research challenges abstract one key challenge for the short selling literature is to identify the incremental contribution of various measures of short sale constraints although variables such as loan fee loan supply and short interest are determined simultaneously in the market for borrowing stock new incremental information may be found in each variable examined papers such as beneish et al 2015 attempt to disentangle the effect of one particular variable and attempt to shed light on the parallel challenge faced by investors in determining which variables will make the most impact on returns as well as trading costs we discuss a number of practical approaches to this challenge and we also consider a potentially new take that considers accounting data driven anomalies as one of the possible exogenously determined variables in the equilibrium of the equity loan market

does short sale restriction lower price efficiency when substitutes exist evidence from the korean market using kospi200 index options futures and warrants this study examines the effect of short sale restriction on price efficiency by circumventing the concerns regarding firm characteristics market conditions and limited information acquisition of investors in previous empirical studies this study finds that warrants are as price efficient as other derivatives products after market conditions are considered even though warrant investors cannot short sell this finding provides an example that short sale restriction on some assets may not hinder market efficiency if there are close substitutes for those assets in the market

the wealth of the unemployed many studies have investigated the adequacy of unemployment insurance ui benefits as a form of income replacement but few have looked at other resources with which the unemployed can finance their unemployment spells this paper focuses on one form of resources own wealth holdings the author finds that the median worker s financial assets can cover roughly two thirds of the income loss from an unemployment spell wealth holdings vary tremendously however and almost one third of workers are unable to replace even 10 of their income loss moreover predicted wealth holdings decline precipitously with realized unemployment durations both absolutely and especially relative to actual income loss this finding together with the finding that individuals who are eligible for more generous ui draw down their wealth more slowly than do others during unemployment spells suggests that ui benefit adequacy could be increased if the benefits were targeted to those with longer unemployment spells

job loss credit constraints and consumption growth we use direct evidence on credit constraints to study their importance for household consumption growth and for welfare we distentangle the direct effect on consumption growth of a currently binding credit constraint from the indirect effect of a potentially binding credit constraint which generates consumption risk our data is focused on job losers we find that less than 5 of job losers experience a binding credit constraint but for those that do they experience significant welfare losses and consumption growth is 24 higher than for the rest of the population however even among those who are currently unconstrained and who are able to borrow if needed consumption responds to transitory income

volume volatility and the dispersion of beliefs i examine a two period noisy rational expectations model of a futures market and show that the dispersion of expectations about a weighted average of future prices measures both the additional volatility and the additional expected volume of trade associated with noisy information the role played by dispersion helps clarify several stylized facts concerning volume and price behavior specifically dispersion can be a factor contributing to the positive correlation between volume and absolute price changes and the positive correlation between consecutive absolute price changes article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

limited participation and consumption saving puzzles a simple explanation and the role of insurance in this paper we show that the existence of a large negative wealth shock and insufficient insurance against such a shock could explain both the limited stock market participation puzzle and the low consumption high savings puzzle we then conduct an empirical analysis on the relation between household portfolio choices and access to private insurance and various types of government safety nets the empirical results demonstrate that a lack of insurance against large negative wealth shocks is positively correlated with lower participation rates and higher saving rates overall the evidence suggests an important role of insurance in household investment and savings decisions

potential pilot problems treatment spillovers in financial regulatory experiments abstract the total effects of a regulatory change consist of direct effects and indirect effects spillovers but the standard difference in difference approach mostly ignores potential indirect effects during the 2007 full repeal of the uptick rule short sellers become much more aggressive across the board even in control stocks where the uptick rule is already suspended this finding is consistent with positive and significant indirect effects on control stocks likely driven by aggressive broad list based shorting in contract the indirect effect coefficients on shorting aggressiveness are negative for the 2005 partial uptick repeal possibly due to substitutions between control and treatment stocks

short selling margin trading and price efficiency evidence from the chinese market abstract china launched a pilot scheme in march 2010 to lift the ban on short selling and margin trading for stocks on a designated list we find that stocks experience negative returns when added to the list after the ban is lifted price efficiency increases while stock return volatility decreases panel data regressions reveal that intensified short selling activities are associated with improved price efficiency short sellers trade to eliminate overpricing by selling stocks with higher contemporaneous returns following a downward trend and their trades predict future returns in contrast we find intensified margin trading activities for stocks with lower contemporaneous returns and these trades have no return predictive power

optimal unemployment insurance abstract we investigate the design of an optimal unemployment insurance program using an equilibrium search model calibrated using data from the reemployment bonus experiments there are three main conclusions first insurance considerations suggest that the potential duration of ul benefits would be unlimited under an optimal program second if the potential duration to benefits were unlimited current replacement rates in the u s about 0 5 would probably be about right third the optimal replacement rate rises as the potential duration of benefits is increasingly limited reaching 1 when the potential duration of benefits is limited to 32 weeks