modifying variability and correlations in winner take all contests we consider contests with a fixed proportion of winners based on relative performance special attention is paid to winner take all contests which we define as contests with relatively few winners receiving relatively large awards but we consider the full range of values of the proportion of winners if a contestant has the opportunity to modify the distribution of her performance what strategy is advantageous when the proportion of winners is less than one half a riskier performance distribution is preferred when this proportion is greater than one half it is better to choose a less risky distribution using a multinormal model we consider modifications in the variability of the distribution and in correlations with the performance of other contestants increasing variability and decreasing correlations lead to improved chances of winning when the proportion of winners is less than one half and the opposite directions should be taken for proportions greater than one half thus it is better to take chances and to attempt to distance oneself from the other contestants i e to break away from the herd when there are few winners a more conservative herding strategy makes sense when there are many winners our analytical and numerical results indicate that the probability of winning can change substantially as variability and or correlations are modified furthermore in a game theoretic setting in which all contestants can make modifications choosing a riskier less risky performance distribution when the proportion of winners is low high is the dominant best response strategy we briefly consider some practical issues related to the recommended strategies and some possible extensions

can futures market data be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates this paper examines whether futures market data can be used to understand the behavior of real interest rates several ways of examining the data indicate that futures market data are not particularly informative about real interest rates not only does this evidence cast some doubt on results in previous research that make use of futures market data to draw inferences about real interest rates but it also indicates that future research on real interest rates may need to turn to a different line of attack understanding the behavior of real interest rates is a central issue in financial economics in previous research on this topic several approaches have been used to measure real interest rates in one approach real interest rates have been calculated by subtracting survey data on inflation expectations such as the livingston data from nominal interest rates the problem with survey based measures of real interest rates is that they are only as good as the survey measure of inflation expectations and there may be little incentive for the survey respondents to answer accurately an even more telling criticism of survey based measures often ignored in the literature is that the behavior of market expectations in driven by economic agents ai the margin who are eliminating unexploited profit opportunities market expectations are unlikely therefore to be well measured by the average expectations of survey respondents 2 because of doubts about survey based measures of real interest rates other

fishing upstream firm innovation strategy and university research alliances this paper examines how innovation strategy influences firms level of involvement with university based research our results suggest that firms with internal r d strategies more heavily weighted toward exploratory activities allocate a greater share of their r d resources to exploratory university research and develop deeper multifaceted relationships with their university research partners in addition firms with more centralized internal r d organizations spend a greater share of their r d dollars on exploratory research conducted at universities in contrast to other external partners we find evidence suggesting that universities are preferred when the firm perceives potential conflicts over intellectual property 2007 elsevier b v all rights reserved

economic contests comparative reward schemes contests are situations in which an individual s reward depends on his performance relative to others students are graded on a curve the candidate with the most votes gets the political office the underling who performs best is promoted to the executive position contests are useful in dealing with indivisible rewards reducing monitoring costs and minimizing risks from common uncertainties they are employed to sort potential participants and once they have entered to induce appropriate effort from them with monitoring precision and prize spreads as potential choice variables optimal contest structures are derived for fair and unfair contests among equal and unequal participants the converse problems of climbing low ability individuals enter the contest designed for high ability candidates and slumming are shown to be manageable

is inflation persistence different in reality this study examines the inflation persistence using both online and official price indexes in argentina brazil china japan germany south africa the uk and the us using fractional integration technique the main results suggest that the degree of persistence estimated by the long memory parameter is smaller when using online price indexes believed to be a more realistic measure of inflation mainly in the cases of argentina brazil china and the uk monetary policy implications are discussed

individual team incentives and managing competitive balance in sports leagues an empirical analysis of major league baseball abstract major league baseball and other professional sports leagues have long been concerned with competitive imbalances caused by differences in local revenues the fear is that in the absence of salary caps or other regulatory mechanisms smaller market teams will be unable to remain competitive this research uses a structural dynamic programming model to analyze ownership s payroll investment decisions this model estimates the relationship between optimal payrolls and local market populations and the influence of long term customer equity dynamics on payroll investments in addition the author analyzes the impact of a recent policy intervention that implemented revenue transfers from high local revenue markets to low local revenue markets the statistical results indicate that market population has a significant impact on the value of a team s payroll investments for example optimal payrolls double as the population increases from 2 5 million to 7 5 million furthermore rather than improving com

the relation between stock prices and inflationary expectations the international evidence this paper provides empirical evidence on the relation between stock returns and inflationary expectations for nine countries over the period 1971 80 the fisherian assumption that real returns are independent of inflationary expectations is soundly rejected for each major stock market of the world using interest rates as a proxy for expected inflation our data provide consistent support for the geske and roll model whose basic hypothesis is that stock price movements signal negative revisions in inflationary expectations finally a weak real interest rate effect was found for some of these countries

money supply announcements interest rates and foreign exchange abstract this paper presents a test of the joint hypothesis that money supply announcements affect the real interest rate and that changes in the real interest rate affect the exchange rate in the short run the test results are consistent with the joint hypothesis for example it is found that announcement of an unexpected jump in the money supply is accompanied by an increase in interest rates and an appreciation of the dollar if the rise in interest rates was entirely due to higher inflationary expectations the dollar should not appreciate

tests of the fisher hypothesis with international data theory and evidence the fisher hypothesis 7 8 states that nominal interest rates adjust fully to expected inflation for years tests of this hypothesis followed fisher 8 in regressing nominal rates on a distributed lag of past inflation which was used as a proxy for the expected rate of inflation see roll 15 for references fisher eventually concluded that nominal rates do not fully reflect expected inflation saying that when the cost of living is not stable the rate of interest takes the appreciation and depreciation into account to some extent but only slightly and in general indirectly 1 fisher attributed this to money illusion in more recent years other researchers have explained the non neutrality of inflation on grounds of general equilibrium sargent 16 and taxes darby 3 and feldstein 6 a new method of testing the fisher hypothesis was introduced by fama 4 he concluded that interest rates set in u s financial markets are informationally efficient fama s work highlighted the two separate although not always distinguishable elements in the fisher hypothesis 1 the effect of expected inflation on the expected real rate and 2 the question of whether or not the nominal rate reflects a rational forecast of expected inflation to test the informational efficiency of nominal rates fama 4 assumed a constant expected real rate arguing in the later paper that the efficiency test is robust with respect to the assumption of the constancy of the expected real rate this assumption has come under severe criticism carlson 2 nelson and schwert 14 on the grounds that the efficiency results are not verifiable given the actual behavior of realized real rates summers 17 extended the study of interest rates to the period 1860 to 1979 using both fisher s and fama s methods and found that the results are less favorable for the fisher hypothesis in a more recent study fama and gibbons 5 tested the fisher hypothesis using a procedure developed by ansley 1 which assumes that the expected real rate follows a random walk they concluded that nominal rates fully reflect expected inflation at the same time that the expected real rate adjusts to it this paper examines the question of whether international interest rates reflect expected inflation in their respective countries in doing so we expand on the previous work of kane and rosenthal 11 we show that although fama 4 introduced a bias into his tests his general approach was correct we then present simple time series tests and show that they fail for eurocurrency rates

market rationality tests based on cross equation restrictions abstract the information used by researchers in cross equation tests of rational expectations may be a small subset of the information available to the market such tests produce consistent estimates but have low power we develop a mechanism for dealing with this problem and use the procedure to perform cross equation tests on predictions from the football betting market the tests fail to reject rationality we provide evidence that market predictions from betting markets are not formed rationally it appears therefore that cross equation tests have low power even if the information sets used by the researcher and the market are approximately the same

salesforce compensation plans in environments with asymmetric information in this paper we present a theory of salesforce compensation plans to provide insights into why it may be advantageous for a profit maximizing firm to offer members of its salesforce the opportunity to choose from a menu of compensation plans although such contractual arrangements are not commonly used in the industry they have been introduced and implemented by firms such as ibm and st regis paper as in our previous work on salesforce compensation plans basu lal srinivasan and staelin basu a k r lal v srinivasan r staelin 1985 salesforce compensation plans an agency theoretic perspective marketing sci 4 fall 267 291 we use an agency theory framework in this paper we relax the assumptions of information symmetry and salesforce homogeneity and show the conditions under which it is optimal to offer a menu of compensation plans we also show that even when these assumptions are relaxed there are situations where offering a single plan characterized by basu lal srinivasan and staelin basu a k r lal v srinivasan r staelin 1985 salesforce compensation plans an agency theoretic perspective marketing sci 4 fall 267 291 is still optimal insights gained from the analyses are discussed in the context of an existing compensation scheme

are tax effects important in the long run fisher relationship evidence from the municipal bond market are nominal bonds appropriately discounted for taxes empirical estimnates of the response of nominal interest rates to changes in inflation the fisher effect have failed to produce a definitive answer four reasons have been put forward as possible explanations i tobin effects ii fiscal illusion iii peso problems and iv different estimators utilizing data on taxable and tax exempt bond interest rates and several different estimators we find that the fisher effect estimates are always larger for the taxable bond relative to the tax exempt bond suggesting that fiscal illusion and different estimators cannot account for the previous results how economic agents respond to the tax burdens of assets with different tax treatment is an important issue at both the level of the individual micro and the aggregate economy macro one clear source of evidence would appear to be the market for high quality debt trading in both taxable and tax exempt debt occurs on a daily basis the response of the rates of return on taxable and tax exempt debt to changes in expected inflation are described by the fisher relationship the fisher relationship is one of the oldest equilibrium relationships in financial economics fisher s original proposition was that if the real rate of interest is relatively constant over time a fully perceived change in the purchasing power of money as proxied by the inverse of the rate of inflation would be accompanied by a proportional increase in the nominal interest rate darby 1975 points out that when nominal interest income is taxed as are interest payments on u s treasury bills the fisher relationship implies a response from nominal interest rates that is greater than the change in expected inflation in order to maintain the constant ex ante real interest rate summers 1983 suggests that given average marginal tax rates in the united states the appropriate value of the fisher effect is 1 3 to 1 5 for tax exempt bonds the original fisher specification should be a good approximation implying a fisher effect close to unity in a seminal paper fama 1975 presents evidence to support the hypothesis that changes in nominal

quota based compensation plans for multiterritory heterogeneous salesforces we compare quota based salesforce compensation plans with the blss plan i e the optimal curvilinear agency theory based compensation plans proposed in basu lal srinivasan and staelin basu a k r lal v srinivasan r staelin 1985 salesforce compensation plans an agency theoretic perspective marketing sci 4 fall 267 291 a quota plan pays a fixed salary which is supplemented by commission income that is a prespecified fraction of the dollar sales that exceed the quota for a salesforce comprised of multiple salespersons territories we consider a basic quota plan where the commission rate and salary remain the same across salespersons however quotas vary across salespersons territories compared to the blss plan that is individually tailored to each salesperson territory the basic quota plan s total nonoptimality in profit has two components i a shapeinduced nonoptimality arising from the fact that the quota based plan does not have the same optimal shape as the curvilinear blss pl

managerial motivation dynamics and incentives firms can increase profitability by appropriately motivating managers we investigate drivers of managerial motivation and propose how firms can use performance pay to alter motivational patterns we focus on the agent s optimal effort decision in trading off compensation utility with effort cost in a static and dynamic setting surprisingly we find that lower risk aversion or increased pay are not necessarily motivating factors and identify the relevant effort drivers underlying the agent s utility and compensation plan we characterize properties of agents preferences for output lotteries risk aversion aggressiveness prudence that trigger systematic motivational patterns with respect to a variety of factors such as the agent s productivity and past performance time to evaluation the firm s capabilities and market factors our insights are robust holding under very general modeling assumptions on preferences rewards and the stochastic effort output function

the adjustment of stock prices to information about inflation this paper analyzes the reaction of stock prices to the new information about inflation based on daily returns to the standard and poor s composite portfolio from 1953 78 it seems that the stock market reacts negatively to the announcement of unexpected inflation in the consumer price index c p i although the magnitude of the reaction is small it is interesting to note that the stock market seems to react at the time of announcement of the c p i approximately one month after the price data are collected by the bureau of labor statistics

do forest assets hedge inflation forest assets are commonly viewed as good hedges against inflation the view is based largely however on anecdotal evidence rather than empirical analysis this paper examines the historical relationship between forestry returns and inflation the results suggest that forests in the u s west and south have been superior hedges against higher than anticipated inflation forests in the northeast have been less effective inflation hedges the results also indicate that western and southern forests have been overvalued during periods of relatively high expected inflation markets for forests in the northeast however have been relatively efficient processors of inflation expectations

designing sales contests does the prize structure matter abstract sales contests are short term incentives that managers use to raise sales effort the extant marketing theory predicts that the optimal prize structure should have two characteristics 1 the number of prizewinners should be greater than one and 2 prize values should be unique and rank ordered however this theory has not been empirically examined this article presents two empirical studies that examine whether the prize structure of a sales contest affects sales performance in each study the authors investigate the incremental effects of introducing multiple prizewinners and unique rank ordered prizes into a sales contest the first study consists of two laboratory experiments in which participants make decisions that closely reflect the decision trade offs in the theoretical model of sales contests the second study consists of two field economic experiments in which trained salespeople sell fundraising sponsorships to companies the results across the experiments are remarkably consist

estimation of the specification error in the fisher equation this paper asks how false is the fisher hypotheis previous work has asked is the fisher hypothesis true the framework here characterizes the specification error in the the fisher equation as model noise following durlauf and hall 1988 1989a 1989b the noise provides a metric for the specification error for the post war period to october 1979 the variance of the noise is small while after that date it is apparently large that is using a method that contains many previous tests of the fisher effect in explaining nominal in explaining nominal interest rate movements mishkin 1991 has criticized this consensus as reflection a common stochastic trend in inflation and nominal interest rates prior to october 1979 the test here is immune to this criticism as i use the ex post real interest rate as the regressand and show that at least prior to october 1979 it obeys a sationary process

real interest rates and inflation an ex ante empirical analysis we develop a method of measuring ex ante real interest rates using prices of index and nominal bonds employing this method and newly available data we directly test the fisher hypothesis that the real rate of interest is independent of inflation expectations we find a negative correlation between ex ante real interest rates and expected inflation this contradicts the fisher hypothesis but is consistent with the theories of mundell and tobin darby and feldstein and stulz we also find that nominal interest rates include an inflation risk premium that is positively related to a proxy for inflation uncertainty

risk behavior in response to quotas and contests much of the salesforce compensation literature has focused on developing incentive schemes to maximize effort levels on the part of the salesforce the amount of effort to expend in the selling task is considered to be the sole decision variable for a sales representative in this paper we introduce another key decision variable for a sales representative which is how much risk to undertake in the selling task in other words we consider the fact that for a sales representative riskiness of performance e g the dispersion of the probability distribution for sales is often a choice and not a given fate for example a sales representative trying to increase sales may have the choice of allocating a given amount of effort on the low risk approach of pursuing a small set of existing customers or incur the same effort on the high risk option of getting new larger customers to switch from competitors this paper examines how decisions on risk behavior on the part of the sales representatives are influenced by compensation schemes we show that such decisions are sensitive to the payoff structure when a quota based or a rank order contest based compensation scheme is used more specifically we argue that a high quota level or a rank order contest where only the top few win induce sales representatives to opt for high risk prospects whereas a low quota level or a rank order contest where a high proportion win induce sales representatives to opt for low risk prospects this does not stem from any kind of violation of standard expected utility theory but arises from the specific structure of jumps in payoffs it is not that the inherent risk attitudes of the sales representatives are being altered rather under some quota and contest conditions a more risky prospect may yield higher expected utility for an inherently risk averse sales representative while under some other quota and contest conditions a less risky prospect may lead to a higher expected utility for an inherently risk seeking sales representative the theoretical propositions are tested in a series of five experiments the first two experiments test the theoretical results of quota based compensation the quota levels are manipulated subjects select between segment types where the mean expected sales are the same but the variance varies the next two experiments test the risk behavior of subjects in contest based incentive schemes when the proportion of winners in the contest is manipulated the results provide strong support for our models with only a few subjects departing from the theoretical predictions a fifth experiment shows some cognitive response data to explain the behavior that is inconsistent with the theoretical predictions this paper provides implications that are useful for managers who design compensation schemes a common assumption in most normative models on salesforce compensation is that all sales representatives are either risk averse or risk neutral this might often lead to the conclusion that sales representatives cannot be expected to engage in high risk activities in the absence of a risk premium over and above the compensation scheme while this may be true if sales representatives are facing only a piece rate compensation plan it need not be the case when quota based or contest based compensation schemes are used our results suggest that when the sales quotas are set high or if the proportion of winners in a sales contest is low sales representatives may engage in high risk behavior alternatively if the quotas are low or the proportion of winners in a sales contest is high sales representatives may engage in low risk prospects hence if a firm would like to dampen high risk behavior on the part of the salesforce lowering quota levels or increasing the proportion of winners in sales contests might do so similarly in order to reduce conservatism towards risk moving up the quota levels or reducing the proportion of winners in sales contests could be useful our results extend beyond just salesforce management to any situation where payoffs are based on reaching a certain threshold level in performance or are based on relative performance for example similar implications hold in tournaments for promotion to a limited number of top management positions in an organization influencing the portfolio of r d managers and so on

salesforce compensation theory and managerial implications this paper discusses recent advances in the study of salesforce motivation and compensation special emphasis is given to quantitative approaches from the economics finance and marketing literatures the paper summarizes the findings in this analytical work in the context of some examples of compensation practice in order to illustrate the usefulness of the paradigm for the evaluation and setting of compensation systems we consider some major issues in setting compensation such as the firm s own objective the salesperson s objective and the nature of the sales response function variations in these factors imply significant variation in optimal compensation policy where optimal takes into account the components in the plan the parameter levels of the components and whether or not a menu of such plans should be made available to the salesforce by highlighting the results in the literature in light of some relevant compensation examples we show the applicability of theory to the practical concerns of salesforce management we close with a summary of these insights and directions for future research in the area

incidence and consequences of risk taking behavior in tournaments evidence from the nba we empirically explore the relevance and efficiency of risk taking behavior in tournaments we use data from the national basketball association nba and measure risk taking by the fraction of three point shots in basketball games we examine how point differences between teams during games affect their subsequent risk taking behavior it is found that teams that are trailing are more likely to increase their use of three point shots we additionally analyze the consequences of this change in behavior enhanced risk taking is inefficient in the vast majority of cases and is only beneficial if a team is trailing by a rather large margin we discuss possible explanations for these decision errors jel m5 d81 j30

is there a unit root in the inflation rate evidence from sequential break and panel data models summary using sequential trend break and panel data models we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen oecd countries with individual country tests we find evidence of stationarity in only four of the thirteen countries the results are more striking with the panel data model we can strongly reject the unit root hypothesis both for a panel of all thirteen countries and for a number of smaller panels consisting of as few as three countries the non rejection of the unit root hypothesis for inflation is very fragile to even a small amount of cross section variation 1997 john wiley sons ltd

short term interest rates as predictors of inflation on testing the hypothesis that the real rate of interest is constant in an innovative and provocative paper in this review eugene fama presents evidence which appears to be consistent with the joint hypothesis that the real rate of interest ignoring taxes is a constant and that the market for u s treasury bills is efficient in the sense of embodying rational expectations those findings are strikingly at variance with a long list of previous studies which seemed to support the view that the real rate of interest varies over time and can be related to economic variables such as real output monetary policy and so forth 2 the methodologies which lead to these contradictory conclusions are quite different previous studies had followed the lead of irving fisher by relating nominal interest rates to distributed lags on past rates of inflation 3 these distributed lags are generally interpreted as approximations to the market s expected rate of inflation and thus any remaining variation is attributed to variation in the real rate 4 fama s methodology on the other hand draws on the fact that the difference between the market interest rate and the subsequently observed rate of inflation the ex post real interest rate consists by definition of the ex ante real interest rate plus a pure forecasting error 5 the hypothesis of market efficiency implies that these forecasting errors must be serially random thus observing ex post real rates is equivalent to observing ex ante real rates with random measurement error these errors of course confound the problem of identifying variation in the ex ante real rate in this paper we will argue that the relative magnitude of these measurement errors is such that the tests carried out by fama were not powerful enough to reject the joint hypothesis that the ex ante real rate is a constant and expectations are rational more powerful tests which are presented in this paper using the same data do lead to rejection of that hypothesis of course rejection

designing optimal sales contests a theoretical perspective sales contests are commonly used by firms as a short term motivational device to increase salespeople s efforts conceptually sales contests and piece rate schemes such as salary commission or quotas differ in that in sales contests payment to salespeople is based on relative rather than absolute sales levels using the agency theoretic framework where the firm is risk neutral and the salespeople are risk averse we examine how a firm should design an optimal contest to maximize its profit through stimulating salespeople s efforts specifically we investigate how many salespeople should be given awards and how the reward should be allocated between the winners three commonly used sales contest formats are studied in the first format termed as rank order tournament there are many winners and the amount of reward is based on relative rank achieved with larger amounts awarded to higher ranks we also examine two special cases of rank ordered tournament a multiple winners format where the reward is shared equally and a winner take all format where a single winner gets the entire reward we model salespeople s behavior by considering utility of the reward from achieving one of the winning ranks in the contest and assessing incremental chances of winning by exerting more effort the analysis was done for two situations based on whether the total reward is large enough for salespeople to participate in the effort maximizing sales contest or not the analysis shows that factors impacting contest design include the salespeople s degree of risk aversion number of salespeople competing in the contest and degree of sales uncertainty which reflects strength of the sales effort relationship the results show that salespeople exert lower effort when there are larger numbers of participants or when sales uncertainty is high we find that the rank order tournament is superior to the multiple winners contest format in a multiple winners format the salesperson whose performance is just sufficient to win is better off than any of the other winners as he exerts the least effort to win but obtains as high a reward as any other winners specific recommendations on contest designs are obtained assuming that sales follow either a logistic or uniform distribution assuming that sales outcome is logistically distributed and the contest budget is high enough to ensure participation our analysis shows that the total number of winners in a sales contest should not exceed half the number of the contestants this result is due to the symmetric nature of the logistic distribution our analysis also indicates that the total number of winners should be increased and the spread decreased when salespeople are more risk averse when salespeople are more risk averse their marginal values for higher rewards become smaller the spread should increase with ranks when rate of risk tolerance is high and decrease with ranks when the rate of risk tolerance is lower in the extreme case of risk neutral salespeople the optimal design is a winner take all format we also conclude that since the probability of winning the contest decreases with number of contestants the optimal number of winners should increase and interrank spread decrease when there are a larger number of participants if the firm does not allocate a large enough budget for salespeople to participate in the effort maximizing sales contest then the firm may increase the number of winners to more than half the sales force increasing the number of winners and decreasing the spread are required to encourage the salespeople to participate particularly when there are many participants who are risk averse a counterintuitive result is that the number of winners should be reduced and the spread increased when sales uncertainty is high increasing sales uncertainty leads to lower equilibrium effort levels while keeping the expected utility of the contest rewards the same therefore increased uncertainty results in higher participation incentive the firm should thus relatively reduce the number of winners in high uncertainty situations under the assumption of uniformly distributed sales the recommendation is that a winner take all contest induces maximum efforts regardless of the level of risk aversion number of players or the degree of uncertainty when the winner take all format does not meet the participation constraint our analysis recommends offering a big reward to the top salesperson and a small reward to many other sales people the small reward should be just sufficient to ensure that all salespeople participate consistent with logistic distribution the spread should decrease when salespeople are more risk averse or there are more players but should increase when sales uncertainty is larger these results highlight that some of the conclusions drawn may be sensitive to distributional assumptions