effluent regulation and long run optimality a regulator faced with free entry of firms is concerned not only with the implications of public policy for the discharges from a representative firm but also with the total pollution observed at the long run market equilibrium the regulator must take into account not only the effects of regulations upon the net marginal returns of the firm but must also consider the total profit of the firm and incentives for entry and exit this paper shows that effluent charges and tradeable effluent permits lead to long run optimality with entry of small firms the difference between firm payments and environmental damages is interpreted as the rent accruing to the environmental resource this result applies only to the competitive case with small polluters the analysis presented here allows a comparison and clarification of the literature on small and large polluters in a multi input framework with social damages dependent upon total effluents effluent charges are shown here to result in socially optimal entry confirming an assertion of baumol and oates 2 p 179 fn 161 and the important result of schulze and d arge 15 by taking average as well as marginal damages into account the effluent charge results in optimal firm scale levels and the correct input mix at the free entry market equilibrium the firm subject to an effluent tax will operate above or below the private minimum efficient scale depending upon whether average external costs exceed or are less than marginal external costs since public policy to reduce effluents is often directed at reducing the effluentgenerating activity some policy recommendations include a tax on the final output of the polluting firm in some theoretical analyses a relation between the output of the firm and the effluent level is identified and a pigouvian output tax is applied this approach should not be followed by policymakers since an output tax does not provide firms with the correct incentives for either input substitution or market entry it is shown that while a lump sum transfer is needed to provide correct entry incentives when a pigouvian output tax is applied no such transfer is needed if the tax is correctly applied to effluents contrary to 5 even if optimal firm scale and i thank the referees for helpful suggestions the support of the national science foundation under grant ses 82 19121 is gratefully acknowledged any errors are my responsibility 103

the nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates some further evidence the time series properties of unemployment rates for germany japan the uk and the us are re examined evidence of nonlinear structure in the residuals of the most parsimonious linear arma models is reported for all countries except japan modelling this nonlinearity using setar models suggests strong asymmetry in unemployment dynamics and the presence of a possible limit cycle for the uk however residual diagnostics for these models indicate remaining structure alternative tar models conditioned on past growth rates of industrial production yield substantial reductions in residual variance over both linear and setar counterparts iid residuals in all cases other than the us and threshold values at or very near zero clearly identifying the asymmetric behaviour of unemployment during expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle

the specification and estimation of interrelated factor demands under uncertainty abstract this paper studies a model of the firm s interrelated demands for the factors of production incorporating exogenous variables with uncertain future values multiple quasi fixed factors depreciation in use and non symmetric internal costs of adjustment the inputs considered are production labor non production workers capital inventories of non finished goods and capacity and non production worker utilization rates a simultaneous system of factor demand equations with constraints is estimated and using u s manufacturing data the model is shown to be tractable under certain assumptions the results are encouraging given the complexity and the nature of the model

approaches and methods for the econometric analysis of market power a survey and empirical comparison this study discusses two widely used approaches in the new empirical industrial organization neio literature and examines the strengths and weaknesses of the production theoretic approach pta and the general identification method gim for the econometric analysis of market power in agricultural and food markets we provide a framework that may help researchers to evaluate and improve structural models of market power starting with the specification of the approaches in question we compare published empirical studies of market power with respect to the choice of the applied approach functional forms estimation methods and derived estimates of the degree of market power thereafter we use our framework to evaluate several structural models based on pta and gim to measure oligopsony power in the ukrainian dairy industry the pta based results suggest that the estimated parameters of oligopsony power are significantly different from zero while gim based results do not indicate any evidence of oligopsony market power in the ukrainian dairy industry moreover estimations results vary substantially due to the employed estimation procedure

analyzing the indirect production function for u s manufacturing in recent years there has been considerable research conducted in applied production economics to estimate the firm s structure of technology and its production characteristics the main concept used in this research is the duality principle relating production and cost or profit together with the use of flexible form econometric specifications for estimating production technologies under the assumption of cost minimization or proft maximization duality implies that for any production function there exists a cost or profit function that provides an equivalent description of the technology what is less well known however is that the firm s technology can be equally well described by the indirect production function a production analog of the indirect utility function in consumer theory 5 8 9 the indirect production function is based on the firm s output maximization subject to a budget constraint on input costs of course it is evident enough that a firm choosing inputs to maximize output for a given input cost produces that output at the minimum cost by implication the indirect production and cost functions are equivalent ways of characterizing the firm s technology and as will be seen there exists a unique correspondence between the two functions in empirical application however the choice between the two functions hinges on the exogeneity or endogeneity of output for the indirect production function the level of output is an endogenous variable in the case of the cost function on the other hand output is exogenously given in most situations it is the indirect production function not the cost function that is more compatible with observed behavior of firms and industries while numerous studies have been conducted recently to estimate the cost or profit function in a variety of firms and industries 1 2 3 6 no attempts have been made to employ the indirect production function as a working tool in applied production analysis this paper attempts to provide empirical evidence from analyzing the indirect production function within the context of an application of the duality principle using the well known data set utilized by berndt and wood 3 and berndt and khaled 2 it reexamines the production structure of u s manufacturing based on a translog specification of the indirect production function for the underlying technology an important question is how the choice of a model the indirect production or cost function

an analysis of technological change factor substitution and economies of scale in manufacturing industries in india the biases of technological change factor substitution and economies of scale in four major manufacturing industries viz cement electricity and gas cotton textiles and iron and steel in india are examined the translog cost functions are estimated using annual time series data covering the period 1960 61 to 1982 83 the study reveals that technical change has been biased towards the use of labour and materials and against the use of capital and energy in electricity and gas industries in cotton textiles the technological change has shown the opposity biases significant economies of sclae exist in the production of electricity and gas enough evidence of substitution possibilities among factors of production in all the four industries was also found

threshold effects in the patent growth relationship a pstr approach for 60 developed and developing countries this study analyzes whether there is a threshold effect in the innovation growth relationship using data from the period 2008 2017 we perform an analysis using 60 countries in the whole sample an

threshold nonlinearities in unemployment rates further evidence for the uk and g3 economies the paper appraises the in sample and out of sample adequacy of linear ar and nonlinear setar models of unemployment rates for germany japan the uk and the us tests are reported for the presence and specification of threshold nonlinearities setar model estimates limiting dynamic properties and residual diagnostics and out of sample forecasting performance in sample threshold non linearities are confirmed to be strongly present for the uk us and germany and more marginally so for japan out of sample excepting japan setar models provide superior onestep ahead forecast on rmse grounds most notably for the us final tests indicate that these models exhibit predictive accuracy in the sense of parameter and residual variance stability implying the potential for exploitation of such nonlinearity in official forecasting

the elasticity of substitution in india s manufacturing sector abstract using cross section data and the translog cost function this paper examines the substitution possibilities between capital and materials and labor and materials since raw materials might be used to overcome the bottlenecks caused by shortages of physical capital and skilled labor three significant conclusions are a since materials are substitutable for both capital and labor to a considerable extent capital and skilled labor may not be a binding constraint on growth agricultural materials expansion may substitute for these inputs and lead to expansion in the industrial sector b fixed proportion models are not warranted in india without modification and c separability tests showed that materials must be included in the production function

appropriate technology in a solovian nonlinear growth model we propose a solovian growth model with a convex concave production function and international technological spillovers we test the empirical implications of the model analysing the effects of the productivity slowdown that followed the oil shocks of the 1970s we argue that this slowdown altering the world income distribution affected the pattern of international technological spillovers taking the poorest countries further away from the technological leaders and therefore unable to exploit their technologies the result is the emergence of a poverty trap for low income countries

market failure in incentive based regulation the case of emissions trading abstract among the existing evaluations of the us epa s emissions trading program a consensus has emerged while the program has resulted in significant cost savings it has not even approximately achieved a cost effective allocation of the control responsibility the cost savings have been smaller and the trades fewer than might have been expected at the outset of the program in this article we explore one hypothesis which purports to explain the divergence between the cost minimizing and the observed pattern of trades for nonuniformly mixed pollutants the trading process hypothesis attributes some significant proportion of this divergence to the nature of the process by which emission reduction credits are traded under the bubble policy an examination of actual bubble trades reveals that the actual trading process is sequential and bilateral and hence differs considerably from the implicit process modeled in the existing empirical studies simulations of this more realistic trading process suggest that the resulting equilibria deviate considerably from cost effective allocations of the control responsibility

trading sulphur emissions in europe guided bilateral trade in this paper a system of guided permit trading is developed for so2emissions reduction which considers permit trading as a bilateral andsequential process this implies that in order to meet the deposition targetsat the end of the trading process not every single trade transaction hasto meet the deposition targets to ensure that the target is ultimately met the number of permits traded should be controlled by a trade coordinatinginstitution a simulation of the system of guided bilateral trading ofso2 permits among european countries on the basis of the secondso2 protocol indicates that some non profitable trade transactionstake place this prevents the cost effective emission allocation from beingfully achieved however the calculations show that guided bilateral permittrading may generate substantial cost savings while contributing toenvironmental protection

estimation of the internal adjustment costs model using longitudinal establishment data this paper develops estimates of the internal costs measured in terms of foregone current output associated with the introduction of new plant and equipment into manufacturing establishments using the census bureau s longitudinal establishment data file a very large and rich source of production and investment data our estimates provide strong support for the internal adjustment costs hypothesis they indicate that one dollar increases in expansion and replacement investment cause on the average 35and 21 cent reductions respectively in current output the internal cost of adjusting to equipment appears to be higher than the cost of adjusting to plant

expectations and factor demand this paper develops and estimates a model of interrelated factor demand with rational expectations in the presence of internal adjustment costs invariant technological parameters are distinguished from the firm s adjustment parameters which change when the exogenous processes faced by the firm change the capital demand equation is derived by solving the euler equations which stem from minimization of the present value of costs future exogenous variables are supplied from solutions of arima equations the model is tested on postwar quarterly data for u s manufacturing a regime change in the process for energy prices is simulated as is a temporary suspension of the investment tax credit

designing organizations for trading pollution rights regulators and academicians have recently become interested in using a marketable permits program as a new way to control aggregate pollution emissions our research focuses on choosing a permit trading mechanism that is both economically efficient and politically viable we consider an organized trading process and a revenue neutral auction both of which involve an initial allocation of permits based on past history each is tested in a competitive and in a non competitive environment to determine which mechanism performs best the results of our research suggest that overall the organized trading process outperforms the revenue neutral auction

trade offs in designing markets with multiple objectives abstract this paper explores some of the problems involved in designing markets with multiple objectives the first part of the paper considers the issue of how such markets are designed in theory while the second part reviews some evidence on actual applications in the field of air pollution control

economic prescriptions for environmental problems how the patient followed the doctor s orders o ne of the dangers with ivory tower theorizing is that it is easy to lose sight of the actual set of problems which need to be solved and the range of potential solutions as one who frequently engages in this exercise i can attest to this fact in my view this loss of sight has become increasingly evident in the theoretical structure underlying environmental economics which often emphasizes elegance at the expense of realism in this paper i will argue that both normative and positive theorizing could greatly benefit from a careful examination of the results of recent innovative approaches to environmental management the particular set of policies examined here involves two tools which have received widespread support from the economics community marketable permits and emission charges pigou 1932 dales 1968 kneese and schultze 1975 both tools represent ways to induce businesses to search for lower cost methods of achieving environmental standards they stand in stark contrast to the predominant command and control approach in which a regulator specifies the technology a firm must use to comply with regulations under highly restrictive conditions it can be shown that both of the economic approaches share the desirable feature that any gains in environmental quality will be obtained at the lowest possible cost baumol and oates 1975 until the 1960s these tools only existed on blackboards and in academic journals as products of the fertile imaginations of academics however some countries have recently begun to explore using these tools as part of a broader strategy for managing environmental problems

an econometric estimation of hicksian and marshallian elasticities in indian manufacturing the knowledge of substitution possibilities between different factors of production is essential in evaluating the impact of public policies on productivity employment industrial growth and factor intensity since the advent of flexible functional forms in the early 1970s a large number of studies have estimated the ease of factor substitution however to date most of the empirical evidence on factor substitution is based on a cost function a drawback with the cost function

improving efficiency in bilateral emission trading when environmental damages from emissions are spatially nonuniform permit trading has been modeled most often as a pollution offset program in which emission permits are traded between agents subject to constraints on ambient air quality to date the institution envisioned to implement such a program involves trading on a bilateral and sequential basis however simulation studies indicate that the sequence of trades may alter the outcome and undermine the cost savings from a pollution offset program this paper identifies a design for the trading institution that tends to overcome this phenomenon and improve the efficiency of equilibria obtained in a simulation model we model a bilateral trading process for the reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions with a stochastic description of the sequence of trades within groups of nations in europe when trading takes place between disaggregated stylistic representations of economic enterprises rather than between national governments a significantly greater portion of potential savings is achieved in fact under most sets of assumptions approximate first order stochastic dominance is achieved wherein the more decentralized the trading agents the greater the expected savings from a trading program

the own wage elasticity of labor demand a meta regression analysis firms labor demand responses to wage changes are of key interest in empirical research and policy analysis however despite extensive research estimates of labor demand elasticities remain subject to considerable heterogeneity in this paper we conduct a comprehensive meta regression analysis to re assess the empirical literature on labor demand elasticities building on 942 elasticity estimates from 105 different studies we identify sources of variation in the absolute value of this elasticity heterogeneity due to the theoretical and empirical specification of the labor demand model different datasets used or sectors and countries considered explains more than 80 of the variation in the estimates we further find substantial evidence for the presence of publication selection bias as estimates of the own wage elasticity of labor demand are upwardly inflated

testing nonlinearities in economic growth in the oecd countries an evidence from setar and star models this study estimates the self exciting threshold autoregressive setar and smooth transition autoregressive star models and examines the nonlinear and regime switching dynamics of economic growth for a set of 10 oecd countries the null of linearity in setar model is tested using the recursive polynomial f test of tsay and the bootstrap based supremum average and exponential average lagrange multiplier lm tests of hansen the f test of tsay rejects the null of linearity for all the countries except spain and switzerland the setar model of hansen reinforces the evidence and suggests the rejection of linear model the star model rejects the null of linearity against star nonlinearity for all the countries except denmark and switzerland the sequential f tests for the conditional nulls suggest the lstar nonlinearity for australia belgium france sweden and uk and the estar nonlinearity for canada spain and the usa

transaction costs and tradeable permits abstract tradeable permit systems are at the center of current interest and activity in market based reforms of environmental policy because these systems can offer significant advantages over conventional approaches to pollution control unfortunately claims made for their relative cost effectiveness have often been exaggerated transaction costs which may be significant in these markets reduce trading levels and increase abatement costs in some cases equilibrium permit allocations and hence aggregate control costs are sensitive to initial permit distributions providing an efficiency justification for politicians typical focus on initial allocations

characterizing nonlinearities in business cycles using smooth transition autoregressive models during the past few years investigators have found evidence indicating that various time series representing business cycles such as production and unemployment may be nonlinear in this paper it is assumed that if the time series is nonlinear then it can be adequately described by a smooth transition autoregressive star model the paper describes the application of these models to quarterly logarithmic production indices for 13 countries and europe tests reject linearity for most of these series and estimated star models indicate that the nonlinearity is needed mainly to describe the responses of production to large negative shocks such as oil price shocks

a comparison of foreign exchange forward and futures prices abstract in theory futures resettlement should create systematic pricing differences between futures and forward contracts however previous empirical studies do not demonstrate such differences in the foreign exchange markets on the other hand inferences from these studies are suspect since they do not directly implement theortical measures of resettlement effects and are unadjusted for sub gaussian data properties in this paper these limitations are addressed through the use of the multivariate autoregressive moving average model our findings provide evidence of systematic pricing influences arising from futures resettlement

capacity utilization and depreciation in use in this paper the effect capacity utilization has on the depreciation of capital goods is studied starting from a quadratic approximation to a normalized short run cost function expressions for the optimal rate of capacity utilization the demands for labour and energy and for investment are obtained investment is a function of past capital stock expected future capital stock expected future relative prices and expected future depreciation rates expectations are modelled via instruments the model is tested using us total manufacturing quarterly data depreciation dependent upon usage is found to be both statistically and economically significant

patents vs publications and r d three sides of the same coin panel smooth transition regression pstr for oecd and brics countries abstractthe paper aims to define the optimal thresholds of publications and research and development r d expenditure and to investigate their impacts on patenting in oecd and brics countries to

threshold nonlinearities in output some international evidence the empirical adequacy of linear ar and nonlinear setar models of trend stationary and difference stationary representations of output for canada germany japan the uk and the us are appraised test results suggest the presence of linear model residual structure of some form for all series and nonlinearities of specifically threshold form in trend stationary data for canada germany japan and the us and difference stationary data for germany japan and the us with the exception of canada estimated threshold nonlinear models imply asymmetric dynamics are able to account for all nonlinear structure in the data on the basis of bds statistics and provide sizeable reductions in residual variance in several cases most notably for germany

dynamic factor demands and the effects of energy price shocks a dynamic model is used to understand how sharp changes in energy prices affect investment behavior employment and energy use the authors discuss the theory behind their model selection model specifications estimation methods and data list parameter estimates and elasticities for the selected model and describe the simulations they conclude that 1 the data strongly reject the hypothesis of constant returns to scale within their specification of aggregate production 2 the data indicate adjustment costs on labor are small and 3 their results help reconcile some of the conflicting estimates of energy demand elasticities appearing in recent literature 23 references 3 figures 3 tables

dynamic factor demands and market structure under rational expectations some estimates for the italian manufacturing system this paper deals with a dynamic model of the behaviour of firms under rational expectations the adjustment cost framework is followed to describe production technologies the objective of firms is to maximize the stream of future profits under rational expectation first order conditions for the optimum are derived with respect to input demands and one output supply the output market structure is modelled in order to test price taking behaviour the adjustment costs of quasi fixed inputs are internal and interrelated the model is estimated for the italian manufacturing system with encouraging results

scale biased technological development in canada s industrialization 1900 1929 the relationships between factor use and scale and technological change and scale are emphasized in a translog cost function analysis of technological development in four sectors of canadian manufacturing 1900 29 by paying particular attention to the role of electrification in this technological development the major findings are that the increased use of electricity was not in general scale dependent and that electrification may have been a factor in increasing the relative productivity of smaller scale units over the period a hypothesis that states that technical change is partially induced by increased scale is however confirmed copyright 1990 by mit press

population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond this paper develops a unied growth model that captures the historical evolution of population technology and output it encompasses theendogenous transitionbetween three regimes that have characterized economic development the economy evolves from amalthusianregime wheretechnologicalprogressis slow andpopulationgrowthprevents anysustainedriseinincomepercapita intoapost malthusianregime wheretechnological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth ultimately a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth andtheeconomyentersamoderngrowthregimewithreducedpopulationgrowth

do patent rights matter 40 years of innovation complexity and productivity abstract does the rigorous protection of patents advance or retard economic development two decades ago a new global standard of intellectual property swept across developing and industrialized nations through the implementation of the wto s trips agreement many years later the issue of patent rights remains contentious in this paper we focus on the effects of patent rights systems on total factor productivity growth using dynamic panel regression analysis for 70 countries from 1965 to 2009 we show that the effects of stronger or more rigorous patent systems are insignificant for productivity growth in both developing and industrialized countries why does the strength of patents appear to have no impact on productivity classic economic theory suggests that stronger patent systems incentive innovative output with important spill over effects for productivity and growth we offer an alternative explanation using data from the economic complexity index we find that while patents rights are increasingly irrelevant to productivity the relationship between economic complexity and productivity is highly positive and significant our results are consistent with the contributions of the absorptive capacity theory in that they suggest it is not the discovery and ownership of novel products and processes at the innovative frontier that induces productive growth but the ability to adapt replicate and diffuse along the international productive chain

the translog production function and variable returns to scale this paper examines existing methods of estimating the translog production function and provides a general framework that allows for variable returns to scale the model is based on the inverse input demand function and embeds a nonhomothetic production technology previous estimation methods are valid only for homogeneous technologies with fixed scale effects estimation results for u s manufacturing show that neither homotheticity and homogeneity nor constant returns to scale is a proper characterization of the underlying structure of production thereby vindicating the empirical relevance of the inverse demand framework that entails a nonhomothetic technology copyright 1992 by mit press

constrained output maximization and us agriculture this paper presents a framework for estimating an indirect production function and then applies it to aggregate us agriculture issues addressed include tests of standard hypotheses about the underlying technology homotheticity neutral technical change etc as well as examination of consistency in aggregation and the effects of changes in the level of aggregate expenditure on farm output since there already exist several studies empirically describing agricultural production technologies with indirect objective functions one might fairly ask whether this paper really breaks any new ground we feel that it does one reason is that existing studies e g binswanger 1974 lopez 1980 ball and chambers 1982 ray 1982 and weaver 1983 all rely on either profit or cost functions to date there appears to be only one study using an indirect production appelbaum 1979 and it is not in agriculture this seems unfortunate because there are many instances in agriculture for which an indirect productio

dynamic firm behavior and regional deadweight losses from a u s oil import fee this paper analyzes the national and regional efficiency aspects of a 5 per barrel fee on crude oil imported into the united states the emphasis of the paper is twofold firstly a dynamic model of firm behavior capturing explicitly both expectations formation and resource nonrenewability is used to assess the impact of the fee on domestic firm behavior and secondly the regional breakdown of the producer and consumer surplus changes tariff revenues and deadweight losses or gains is performed by taking explicit account of stock ownership in oil producing and oilconsuming corporations and consumption by end use sector the import fee is a politically contentious issue but one that refuses to go away in political circles the perceived benefits of the fee are usually seen as increased energy security and aid to a beleaguered domestic oil and gas industry perceived drawbacks are usually inflation and regional inequities the last point is the political downfall of the tariff producing states are seen to gain from the higher prices brought on by the tariff and consuming states are seen to lose representatives from states with little or no production and this of course covers most states are hard pressed to sell the idea to constituents this paper thus deals with two of the most important questions from a policy perspective the regional incidence of the tariff and its impact on domestic output in a related paper 20 i discuss the economic rationales for an oil import fee i find that any optimal tariff arguments based on u s monopsony power in the world oil market are not valid in today s market estimates show an import supply curve of approximately infinite elasticity and thus an optimal tariff near zero i dispense with the energy security rationale for a tariff as well arguing that any risk of a disruption of imports in the future and that risk may be small in today s market is best handled with other policy tools such as government owned or subsidized stockpiles these conclusions imply that a tariff would impose deadweight losses on the u s economy by encouraging overproduction of domestic petroleum resources and underconsumption of petroleum imports how much overproduction results from the tariff is the focus of section ii below a

foreign direct investment domestic investment and economic growth in china a time series analysis this paper investigates the causal link between foreign direct investment fdi domestic investment and economic growth in china for the period 1988 2003 using a multivariate var system with error correction model ecm and the innovation accounting variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis techniques the results show that while there is a bi directional causality between domestic investment and economic growth there is only a single directional causality from fdi to domestic investment and to economic growth rather than crowding out domestic investment fdi is found to be complementary with domestic investment thus fdi has not only assisted in overcoming shortage of capital it has also stimulated economic growth through complementing domestic investment in china