trends in time allocation a cross country analysis abstract using detailed time use data for seven industrialized countries from the 1970s until today we document general decreases in men s market work coupled with increases in men s unpaid work and child care and increases in women s paid work and child care coupled with decreases in unpaid work we also find almost universal increases in the time devoted to watching television over this period and uncover a widespread increase in leisure inequality in favor of lower educated adults trends in leisure inequality mirror the general increase in income and earnings inequality experienced in most countries over this period especially after the mid 1980s all these findings are consistent with previous results for the us however in contrast to the increases in leisure found for the us we fail to find common trends in leisure time across countries over the period analyzed

health expenditure growth looking beyond the average through decomposition of the full distribution explanations of growth in health expenditures have restricted attention to the mean we explain change throughout the distribution of expenditures providing insight into how expenditure growth and its explanation differ along the distribution we analyse dutch data on actual health expenditures linked to hospital discharge and mortality registers full distribution decomposition delivers findings that would be overlooked by examination of changes in the mean alone the growth rate of hospital expenditures is greatest at the middle of the distribution and is driven mainly by changes in the distributions of determinants pharmaceutical expenditures increase most rapidly at the top of the distribution and are mainly attributable to structural changes including technological progress making treatment of the highest cost cases even more expensive changes in hospital practice styles make the largest contribution of all determinants to increased spending not only on hospital care but also on pharmaceuticals suggesting important spill over effects

learning and wage dynamics we develop a dynamic model of learning about worker ability in a competitive labor market the model produces three testable implications regarding wage dynamics 1 although the role of schooling in the labor market s inference process declines as performance observations accumulate the estimated effect of schooling on the level of wages is independent of labor market experience 2 timeinvariant variables correlated with ability but unobserved by employers such as certain test scores are increasingly correlated with wages as experience increases and 3 wage residuals are a martingale we present evidence from the nlsy that is broadly consistent with the model s predictions

misclassified treatment status and treatment effects an application to returns to education in the united kingdom abstract we study the impact of misreported treatment status on the estimation of causal treatment effects focusing on applications where no additional information or repeated measurements are available we first characterize the bias introduced by misclassification on the average treatment effect on the treated att under a conditional independence assumption in both a binary and a multiple treatment setting we find that the bias of matching type estimators computed from misclassified data cannot in general be signed we subsequently provide easily implementable methods to bound the att of interest semiparametrically in particular allowing for very general forms of impact heterogeneity and of the no treatment outcome equations as well as for some dependence of the misreporting probabilities on individual characteristics the empirical problem that motivates our paper is the estimation of the wage returns to a number of educational qualifications in the united kingdom allowing for misreporting in a

a cluster analysis on income elasticity variations and us pharmaceutical expenditures this paper examines the relationship between household income and outpatient prescribed medicines in the usa based on a sample of 2872 privately insured patients from the 1987 nmes data set the analysis is performed on regional typologies of different socioeconomic profiles of patients only a few groups show positive income elasticity

health shocks and risk aversion we empirically assess whether a health shock influences individual risk aversion we use grip strength data to obtain an objective health shock indicator in order to account for the non random nature of our data regression adjusted matching is employed risk preferences are traditionally assumed to be constant however we find that a health shock increases individual risk aversion the finding is robust to a series of sensitivity analyses and persists for at least four years after the shock income changes do not seem to be the driving mechanism

counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression we propose a method to decompose the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time in several factors contributing to those changes the method is based on the estimation of marginal wage distributions consistent with a conditional distribution estimated by quantile regression as well as with any hypothesized distribution for the covariates comparing the marginal distributions implied by different distributions for the covariates one is then able to perform counterfactual exercises the proposed methodology enables the identification of the sources of the increased wage inequality observed in most countries specifically it decomposes the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time into several factors contributing to those changes namely by discriminating between changes in the characteristics of the working population and changes in the returns to these characteristics we apply this methodology to portuguese data for the period 1986 1995 and find that the observed increase in educational levels contributed decisively towards greater wage inequality copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

interrelationships between income health and the environment extending the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis abstract this paper examines the link between the health indicators and the environmental variables for a cross section of countries widely dispersed on the economic development spectrum while environment and income are seen to have an inverted u shaped relationship environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis it is also well established that environment and health are positively related our study focuses on the implications of this for the relationship between health and income in the early phases of income growth the gains in health and the losses in environmental quality could cancel each other out and this challenges the idea that as incomes increase health would always improve to empirically analyse these issues we estimate a two stage least squares model that focuses on the impact of income and the environment on health status with environment being an endogenous variable our results show that the environmental stress variable has a significant negative effect on health status at the same time gross national product gnp levels are shown to vary positively with health status variables we find that the health gains obtained through improved incomes can be negated to a significant extent if the indirect effect of income acting via the environment is ignored research findings in this regard would be a useful policy instrument towards maximising both the environmental and health gains that come with economic growth and development

decomposing the composition effect the role of covariates in determining between group differences in economic outcomes in this article we study the structure of the composition effect which is the part of the observed between group difference in the distribution of some economic outcome that can be explained by differences in the distribution of covariates using results from copula theory we derive a new representation that contains three types of components i the direct contribution of each covariate due to between group differences in the respective marginal distributions ii several two way and higher order interaction effects due to the interplay between two or more marginal distributions and iii a dependence effect accounting for between group differences in dependence patterns among the covariates we show how these components can be estimated in practice and use our method to study the evolution of the wage distribution in the united states between 1985 and 2005 we obtain some new and interesting empirical findings for example our estimates suggest that the dependence effect alone can explai

collective labor supply heterogeneity and nonparticipation in this paper we extend the collective model of labour supply developed by chiappori 1988 to allow for discrete choices censoring and nonparticipation in employment we derive the collective restrictions on labour supply functions that we contrast with restrictions implied by the usual unitary framework we apply our results to the estimation of a collective labor supply model for married couples without children using uk data from 1979 to 1993 taking into account unobserved heterogeneity we use the log linear labor supply framework the implications of the unitary framework are rejected while those of the collective approach are not the estimates of the sharing rule show that wages have a strong influence on bargaining power within couples

quantile selection models with an application to understanding changes in wage inequality we propose a method to correct for sample selection in quantile regression models selection is modeled via the cumulative distribution function or copula of the percentile error in the outcome equation and the error in the participation decision copula parameters are estimated by minimizing a method of moments criterion given these parameter estimates the percentile levels of the outcome are readjusted to correct for selection and quantile parameters are estimated by minimizing a rotated check function we apply the method to correct wage percentiles for selection into employment using data for the uk for the period 1978 2000 we also extend the method to account for the presence of equilibrium effects when performing counterfactual exercises

collective labour supply heterogeneity and non participation we present identification and estimation results for the collective model of labour supply in which there are discrete choices censoring of hours and non participation in employment we derive the collective restrictions on labour supply functions and contrast them with restrictions implied by the usual unitary framework using the large changes in the wage structure between men and women in the u k over the last two decades we estimate a collective labour supply model for married couples without children the estimates of the sharing rule show that male wages and employment have a strong influence on bargaining power within couples

conditional cash transfers and school dropout rates this paper evaluates a united kingdom pilot study designed to test whether a means tested conditional cash transfer paid to 16 to 18 year olds for staying in full time education is an effective way of reducing the proportion of school dropouts the transfer s impact is substantial in the first year full time education participation rates increase by around 4 5 percentage points while the proportion receiving two years of education increases by around 6 7 percentage points those receiving the full payment have the largest initial increase in participation and some evidence is found suggesting that part of the effect can be explained by liquidity constraints

the life cycle and the business cycle of wage risk cross country comparisons abstract we provide evidence on life cycle and business cycle fluctuations in the dispersion of household level wage innovations comparing the us the uk and germany first we find that household characteristics explain about 25 of the dispersion in wages within an age group in all three countries second the cross sectional variance of wages is almost linearly increasing in household age in all three countries but with increments being smaller in the european data third wage risk is procyclical in germany while it is countercyclical in the us and acyclical in the uk

income inequality and the labour market in britain and the us abstract we study household income inequality in both great britain and the united states and the interplay between labour market earnings and the tax system while both britain and the us have witnessed secular increases in 90 10 male earnings inequality over the last three decades this measure of inequality in net family income has declined in britain while it has risen in the us to better understand these comparisons we examine the interaction between labour market earnings in the family assortative mating the tax and welfare benefit system and household income inequality we find that both countries have witnessed sizeable changes in employment which have primarily occurred on the extensive margin in the us and on the intensive margin in britain increases in the generosity of the welfare system in britain played a key role in equalizing net income growth across the wage distribution whereas the relatively weak safety net available to non workers in the us mean this growing group has seen particularly adverse developments in their net incomes

caught in a trap wage mobility in great britain 1975 1994 in this paper i study wage mobility in great britain using the new earnings surveys of 1975 94 and the british household panel surveys of 1991 94 measuring mobility in terms of decile transition matrices i find a considerable degree of immobility within the wage distribution from one year to the next mobility is higher when measured over longer time periods those in lower deciles in the wage distribution are much more likely to exit into unemployment and non employment measuring mobility by studying changes in individuals actual percentile rankings in the wage distribution i find evidence that short run mobility rates have fallen since the late 1970s this has potentially important welfare implications given the rise in cross section earnings inequality observed over the last two decades copyright 2000 by the london school of economics and political science

rating the raters are reputation concerns powerful enough to discipline rating agencies abstract credit rating agencies cras are accused of bearing a strong responsibility for contributing to the subprime crisis by having been deliberately too lax in the ratings of some structured products in response to this accusation cras argue that such an attitude would be too dangerous for them since their reputation is at stake the objective of this article is to examine the validity of this argument within a formal model are reputation concerns sufficient to discipline rating agencies we show that the reputation argument only works when a sufficiency large fraction of the cra income comes from other sources than rating complex products by contrast when rating complex products becomes a major source of income for the cra we show that it is always too lax with a positive probability and inflates ratings with probability one when its reputation is good enough we provide some empirical support for this prediction by showing that ceteris paribus the proportion of subprime residential mortgage backed securities rmbs that were rated aaa by the three main cras indeed increased over the last eight years we analyze the policy implications of our findings and advocate for a new business model of cras that we call the platform pays model

estimating labour supply responses using tax reforms the 1980 s tax reforms and the changing dispersion of wages offer one of the best opportunities yet to estimate labor supply effects nevertheless changing sample composition aggregate shocks the changing composition of the tax paying population and discontinuities in the tax system create serious identification and estimation problems we develop grouping estimators that address these issues our results reveal positive and moderately sized wage elasticities we also find negative income effects for women with children

the determinants of canadian provincial health expenditures evidence from a dynamic panel this article seeks to reveal the magnitude of the income elasticity of health expenditure and the impact of non income determinants of health expenditure across canada for this purpose panel data on gross domestic product the relative price of health care the share of publicly funded health expenditure the share of senior population and the life expectancy at birth have been used to investigate the determinants of canadian provincial health expenditures over a 28 year period dynamic models of health expenditure are analysed via generalized instrumental variables giv and generalized method of moments gmm results indicate that the long run income elasticity of health expenditure is substantially lower than one thus health care is far from being a luxury in canada

what has 20 years of public private pay gap literature told us eastern european transitioning vs developed economies this paper surveys the literature on public private sector pay differentials based on 20 years of research in transitioning countries of eastern europe ee and compares the results with estimates obtained from developed market economies the majority of empirical studies from ee economies found evidence of public sector pay penalties during the period of economic transition from a communist to market based economy in developed economies however the average differential is usually around zero or positive the public sector pay inequality reducing effect relative to the private sector is greater in transitioning economies than in developed economies nevertheless there is evidence that the sign of the public sector pay gap as well as the relative public sector pay distribution change with the progress of economic transition towards those usually observed in developed economies different pay setting arrangements between private and public sectors and competition for workers seem to be major arguments for the existence of systematic pay differences between the two sectors

demand for medical care consumption and cointegration abstract this paper considers a generalized version of grossman s health capital model and derives a cointegration restriction the restriction is tested using aggregate us data and the results are consistent with the prediction of the model

price and quantity in international comparisons of health care expenditure an important omission from earlier cross national comparisons of health care expenditure has been the failure to distinguish between price and quantity using recent data on purchasing power parities the purpose of this article is to report some preliminary results regarding health care expenditure and quantity across 22 oecd countries the article concludes that contrary to what has been suggested in some recent articles the relative price of health care is not correlated to the aggregate per capita income the fraction of the national income that is devoted to health care provision increases with the per capita income regardless of whether health care is measured in terms of expenditure or quantity the relative price of health care has a rationing effect on the quantity of health care that is offered with a price alasticity close to minus one the latter finding means that the health care expenditure is not greater in countries with higherprices furthermore the differences in health care expendit

interpreting aggregate wage growth the role of labor market participation a new and easily implementable framework for the empirical analysis of the relationship between aggregate and individual wages is developed aggregate real wages are shown to contain three important bias terms one associated with the dispersion of individual wages a second deriving from compositional changes in the selected sample of workers and a third reflecting the distribution of working hours their importance for interpreting the path of aggregate wages and of the returns to education for recent experience in britain is highlighted a close correspondence between the estimated biases and the patterns of differences shown by aggregate wages is established

lessons from privatization in britain abstract the process of privatizing most of britain s major public enterprises yields interesting conclusions on the three related issues 1 a problem of policy assignment arose in the use of privatization and liberalization to achieve both allocative and productive efficiency 2 evidence on the behavior of the public enterprises is consistent with an organizational model of the relevant principal agent relationships predicting certain types of slack absorption 3 the privatization process entailed policy choices that bear on their future productive efficiency effectiveness of monitoring by the market for corporate control and allocative efficiency provision for regulation

distributional changes in the gender wage gap using panel study of income dynamics psid data the authors analyze changes in wage differentials between white men and women over time and across the entire wage distribution the authors decompose distributional changes in the gender wage gap to assess the contribution of observed characteristics measuring individual productivity they find that the gender wage gap narrowed by 16 at the lowest decile and by less than 5 at the highest decile the decomposition results indicate that changes in the gender wage gap are mainly attributable to changes in educational attainment at the top of the wage distribution with a sizable part due to work history changes at the bottom the findings further reveal that the accuracy of the results depends on the direction in which the decompositions are performed

bridging the gender gap identifying what is holding self employed women back in ghana rwanda tanzania and the republic of congo quantile decomposition methods are used to study the determinants of the gender gap in self employment earnings across the earnings distribution of four sub saharan countries the republic of congo

decomposing changes in wage distributions a unified approach over the last fifteen years many researchers have attempted to explain the determinants and changes of wage inequality i propose a simple procedure to decompose changes in the distribution of wages or in other distributions into three factors changes in regression coefficients the distribution of covariates and residuals the procedure requires only estimating standard ols regressions augmented by a logit or probit model it can be extended by modelling residuals as a function of unmeasured skills and skill prices two empirical examples showing how the procedure works in practice are considered in the first example sources of differences in the wage distribution in alberta and british columbia are considered in the second sources of change in overall wage inequality in the united states 1973 99 are re examined finally the proposed procedure is compared with existing procedures jel classification j3 la decomposition des changements dans les distributions de salaires une approche unifee au cours des quinze dernieres annees nombre d etudes se sont penchees sur les determinants et les changements de la distribution des salaires ce memoire propose une procedure pour decomposer les changements de la distribution des salaires en trois elements les changements dans les coefficients de regression la distribution des regresseurs et les changements residuels cette procedure ne necessite que l estimation de regressions par moindre carres ordinaires et d un modele probit ou logit l auteur montre aussi comment modeliser les residus en fonction de competences non mesurees la procedure proposee est mise en application dans le contexte de deux exemples la distribution des salaires en alberta et en colombie britannique et les changements dans la distribution des salaires de 1973 a 1999 aux etats unis le memoire examine aussi comment cette procedure se compare aux methodes proposees par d autres chercheurs

medical care costs how much welfare loss hardly a week goes by without a front page newspaper article on rising health care costs and the uninsured in this article i focus mainly on costs arguing that the issue has been somewhat misconceived while the level of medical care spending in the u s is a cause for concern the welfare losses associated with rises in that level of spending may not be as large as the public rhetoric can make them seem in fact cost containment may not be as urgent as is widely supposed and some proposed cost containment policies may result in welfare losses for the insured and even increase the number of uninsured

aggregate health care expenditures and national income is health care a luxury good it is well known that a strong relationship exists between national expenditures on health care and national income this has been used to suggest that health care is a luxury good and that factors such as the type of health care delivery system in a country are of little importance in determining expenditure levels this paper argues that these implications rely upon the application of microeconomic analysis to macroeconomic data and that this is not appropriate as well as raising questions about the inferences drawn from previous studies new empirical evidence is presented which casts some doubts on previous findings international comparisons are based on purchasing power parity rather than exchange rate conversions underlining the importance of prices as well as quantities in the relationship and leading to the conclusion that the aggregate data show health care to be if anything a necessity rather than a luxury good

reliability risk aversion and the positive theory of public enterprise abstract this paper extends the theory of reliability by developing it in the context of the positive theory of public enterprise the public enterprise is assumed to be a size maximiser and to choose price and capacity in the face of uncertain demand and subject to an expected profit target it is shown that a risk averse public enterprise will set its levels of price capacity and reliability either all above or all below those of a risk neutral public enterprise depending on the value of the elasticity of expected sales relative to unity in addition it is shown that price changes may be superior to capacity changes as a guide to changes in reliability

health insurance and the demand for medical care evidence from a randomized experiment we estimate how cost sharing the portion of the bill the patient pays affects the demand for medical services the data come from a randomized experiment a catastrophic insurance plan reduces expenditures 31 percent relative to zero out of pocket price the price elasticity is approximately 0 2 we reject the hypothesis that less favorable coverage of outpatient services increases total expenditure for example by deterring preventive care or inducing hospitalization

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

schooling and the distribution of wages in the european private and public sectors international research has shown that schooling enhances within groups wage dispersion this assessment is typically based on private sector data and up to date the inequality implications of schooling have not been documented for the public sector this article uses recent data from eight european countries to explicitly take into account differences between the private and public sectors using quantile regression the article describes the effects of schooling on the location and shape of the conditional wage distribution in each sector while the average impact of schooling on wages is similar across sectors the impact of schooling on within groups dispersion is found to be substantially larger in the private sector than in the public sector this finding warns that the effects of the european educational expansion on overall within groups dispersion may be lower than previously thought

do rating agencies benefit from providing higher ratings evidence from the consequences of municipal bond ratings recalibration we ask whether credit rating agencies receive higher fees and gain greater market share when they provide more favorable ratings to investigate this question we use the 2010 rating scale recalibration by moody s and fitch which increased ratings absent any underlying change in issuer credit quality consistent with prior research we find that the recalibration allowed the clients of moody s and fitch to receive better ratings and lower yields we add to this evidence by showing that the recalibration also led to larger fees and to increases in the market shares of moody s and fitch these results are consistent with critics concerns about the effects of the issuer pay model on the credit ratings market

price quality and regulation an analysis of price capping and the reliability of electricity supply abstract this paper examines the relationship between price cap regulation and the reliability of supply of a private monopoly two situations are considered one in which reliability is excluded from the price cap and one in which it is included if reliability is excluded it is shown that there is a tendency for the firm to protect profits by lowering reliability when cost increases must be absorbed whereas if reliability is included then this tendency is eliminated however this inclusion creates an incentive for the firm to exploit the positive relationship between price and reliability when cost increases can be passed on but this problem can be controlled by reducing the exogenous weight applied to reliability in the price cap formula

changes in the characteristics of american youth implications for adult outcomes we examine changes in the characteristics of american youth between the late 1970s and the late 1990s with a focus on characteristics that matter for labor market success the current generation is more skilled than the previous one blacks and hispanics have gained relative to whites and women have gained relative to men however the skill distribution has widened overall shifts in parental education generate many of the observed changes we also provide speculative estimates suggesting that if recent trends in technology and the supply of human capital continue wage inequality will increase substantially by 2025

economic change and rising income inequality in the oslo region the importance of knowledge intensive business services wessel t economic change and rising income inequality in the oslo region the importance of knowledge intensive business services regional studies the growth of market income inequality in the oslo region of norway between 1993 and 2004 is investigated using two measures it is shown that most of the change occurred within knowledge intensive business services and further within demographic subgroups changes in mean income between group inequality and shifts in the balance between segments of the economy are of minor importance the results support a combined focus on productive paths and institutions labour relations in particular appear as an important explanation however labour relations can hardly explain why men rather than women and western immigrants rather than non western immigrants converge towards employment in high profit businesses this particular pattern requires research beyond the economic and institutional landscape wessel t

the impact of income shocks on health evidence from cohort data we study the eect of permanent income innovations on health for a prime aged population using information on more than half a million individuals sampled over a twenty five year period in three dierent cross sectional surveys we aggregate data by date of birth cohort to construct a synthetic cohort dataset with details of income expenditure socio demographic factors health outcomes and selected risk factors we then exploit structural and arguably exogenous changes in cohort incomes over the eighties and nineties to uncover causal eects of permanent income shocks on health we find that such income innovations have little eects on health but do aect health behaviour and mortality

trends in quality adjusted skill premia in the united states 1960 2000 this paper presents new evidence that increases in college enrollment lead to a decline in the average quality of college graduates between 1960 and 2000 resulting in a decrease of 8 percentage points in the college premium the standard demand and supply framework katz and murphy 1992 card and lemieux 2001 can qualitatively account for the trend in the college and age premia over this period but the quantitative adjustments that need to be made to account for changes in quality are substantial furthermore the standard interpretation of the supply effect can be misleading if the quality of college workers is not controlled for to illustrate the importance of these adjustments we reanalyze the problem studied in card and lemieux 2001 who observe that the rise in the college premium in the 1980s occurred mainly for young workers and attribute this to the differential behavior of the supply of skill between the young and the old our results show that changes in quality are as important as changes in prices to explain the phenomenon they document

the evolution of individual male earnings in great britain 1975 95 i study the dynamic structure of male wages in great britain using the new earnings survey panel from 1975 95 computing auto covariances of individual wages by cohort i find evidence of a permanent component of earnings that increases over the life cycle and a highly persistent serially correlated transitory component in addition the estimated variances of both these components have risen over this period each explaining about half the rise in inequality using individual s occupation at age 22 i split the sample into four skill groups i find some differences across these groups with the rise in the permanent variance most important for the manual groups

the economic effects of public financing evidence from municipal bond ratings recalibration we show that the supply of local public financing can have important effects on local economies we identify these effects by exploiting exogenous variation on municipal bond ratings due to moody s recalibration of its scale in 2010 we find that local governments increase expenditures and employment due to an expansion of their debt capacity following an upgrade these increases in local government spending lead to multiplier effects on non tradable employment and income our findings suggest that debt financed increases in government spending can improve economic conditions during recessions

health care is an individual necessity and a national luxury applying multilevel decision models to the analysis of health care expenditures health care is neither a necessity or a luxury it is both since the income elasticity varies with the level of analysis with insurance individual income elasticities are typically near zero while national health expenditure elasticities are commonly greater than 1 0 the debate over whether health care is or is not a luxury good arises primarily from the failure to specify levels of analysis clearly so as to distinguish variation within groups from variation between groups apparently contradictory empirical results are shown to be consistent with a simple nested multilevel model of health care spending

intergenerational mobility in britain in this paper we use longitudinal data on children and their parents to assess the extent of intergenerational mobility in britain based on data from the national child development survey a cohort of all individuals born in a week of march 1958 we find that the extent of intergenerational mobility is limited we report an intergenerational correlation of the order 40 to 60 for fathers and sons and 45 to 70 for fathers and daughters in terms of labour market earnings and years of schooling an examination of quartile transition matrices between parental and child earnings outcomes reveals a similar pattern finally it seems on the basis of these transition matrices that there is an important asymmetry in intergenerational earnings mobility with upward mobility from the bottom of the earnings distribution being more likely than downward mobility from the top

conversion factor instability in international comparisons of health care expenditure parkin mcguire and yule 1987 hereafter pmy report that a regression of per capita health care expenditure on per capita income using different conversion factors exchange rates gdp ppps health ppps gave rise to different results in this note we apply updated data to the same empirical relationship in contrast to pmy we find no noticeable conversion factor instability in that relationship either with respect to the health care income elasticity or with the magnitude of multiple correlation coefficient

equity efficiency and financial risk of alternative arrangements for funding long term care systems in an ageing society partly a reflection of the increasing volume and hence political influence of the older population recent reforms of long term care ltc systems across developed countries have sought to expand the coverage of the services provided and have defined increasingly universal levels of state support for people with social care needs at the same time some of the factors leading to the expansion of the objectives and ambitions of the care system such as the ageing of the population pose significant challenges to its long term financial sustainability in this context the paper first reviews the main factors likely to contribute to the growth in ltc demand and expenditure and reflects on the policy priorities associated with state backed funding systems in the area using results from a bespoke dynamic micro simulation model it then illustrates the discussion through a quantitative analysis of the equity and efficiency implications of alternative funding models discussed in the context of the ongoing reforms of the ltc system in england

is health care a luxury the debate revisited with new evidence from emerging economies abstractthis paper studies the long run relationship between health care expenditure and income using a panel data set of emerging economies over the period 1995 2012 the results show that expenditure on health care and income are non stationary and cointegrated after controlling for cross sectional dependence and unobserved heterogeneity among different countries we find that the income elasticity of health care is less than 1 indicating that health care is a necessity and not a luxury government expenditure and out of pocket expenditure turn out to be important determinants of health care expenditure among non monetary factors results show that old age dependency and female education seem to have significant bearings on health care expenditures policy recommendations suggest that government should increase spending on health care in emerging economies since higher incomes may not automatically translate into higher health care spending by the people of these countries

changes in the distribution of male and female wages accounting for employment composition using bounds this paper examines changes in the distribution of wages using bounds to allow for the impact of nonrandom selection into work we show that worst case bounds can be informative however because employment rates in the united kingdom are often low they are not informative about changes in educational or gender wage differentials thus we explore ways to tighten these bounds using restrictions motivated from economic theory with these assumptions we find convincing evidence of an increase in inequality within education groups changes in educational differentials and increases in the relative wages of women

an econometric analysis of health care expenditure a cross section study of the oecd countries this paper is an empirical examination of the determinants of aggregate health care expenditure the paper presents a systematic analysis of relationships across 19 oecd countries showing the effects of aggregate income institutional and socio demographic factors on health care expenditure the results indicate that institutional factors of the health systems in addition to per capita gross domestic product gdp contribute significantly to the explanation of the health care expenditure variation between countries for example the way physicians in outpatient care are paid and the mixture of public private funding and inpatient outpatient care

the cycle of earnings inequality evidence from spanish social security data we use detailed information on labor earnings and employment from social security records to document the evolution of male daily earnings inequality in spain from 1988 to 2010 we find that inequality was strongly countercyclical it increased around the 1993 recession experienced a substantial decrease during the 1997 2007 expansion and then a sharp increase during the recent recession this evolution went in parallel with the cyclicality of employment in the lower middle part of the wage distribution our findings highlight the importance of the housing boom and bust in this evolution suggesting that demand shocks in the construction sector had large effects on aggregate labor market outcomes

does education raise productivity or just reflect it education has an important effect on wages but it not clear whether this is because education raises productivity or because education is simply a signal of ability we implement a number of existing tests for discriminating between these two explanations and find that they do not support the signalling hypothesis however we have severe reservations about these results and we propose an alternative test based on changes in education incentives caused by changes in the minimum school leaving age in the 1970s using this idea we find that uk data appear to strongly support the human capital explanation an important issue in the economics of education is that an individual s education has an effect on wages paid in the labour market for example blundell et al 2003 uses detailed education and subsequent earnings information for a cohort of male individuals born in 1958 to estimate that the returns to a uk degree typically of 3 year duration relative to graduating from high school at 18 with 2 a level qualifications a necessary but not sufficient condition for admission to university is a 24 wage premium human capital explanations pioneered by becker 1962 and schultz 1963 suggest that the correlation between education and wages is due to education enhancing productivity however earnings may rise in response to education not because of any effect on productivity but simply because education may act as a signal of productivity employers believing that education is correlated with productivity will screen workers for their education and pay higher wages to the more educated the employers beliefs will be confirmed by their experience if it is the case that high productivity individuals signal this by choosing high levels of education it will be optimal for individuals to behave in this way if the cost of acquiring education is less for high productivity individuals than it is for low productivity individuals thus under reasonable conditions the market will be characterised by a separating equilibrium where higher productivity individuals choose higher levels of education than lower productivity workers and earn correspondingly higher wages the theory is largely due to spence 1973 1979 and the subsequent empirical literature was reviewed by groot and oosterbeek 1994 riley 2001 provides an excellent modern survey chevalier harmon and walker are fellows of iza in bonn and are affiliated with the institute for the study of social change issc in dublin this paper is part of the issc policy evaluation programme chevalier and walker are also affiliated with the centre for the economics of education at the london school of economics lse the support of all of these bodies for facilitating our collaboration is acknowledged harmon is grateful to university college london for their hospitality during his nuffield foundation new career development fellowship in the social sciences comments from steve machin and three anonymous referees greatly improved the exposition of this paper we are also grateful to richard blundell and to seminar participants at the lse and the tinbergen institute in amsterdam for their comments and to vincent o sullivan for excellent research assistance the usual disclaimer applies

reference health and the demand for medical care we propose that health in prior periods termed reference health is theoretically and empirically relevant to the demand for medical care to address non normality in the distributions of medical care spending consumption and health we use a conditional density estimator nested in a finite mixture framework we find that reference health can help explain the variation in spending among individuals with the same contemporaneous health particularly in the top tail of the spending distribution we demonstrate that omitting reference health understates the potential cost savings of healthy aging initiatives by 50 percent this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

changes in compulsory schooling education and the distribution of wages in europe using data from 12 european countries and the variation across countries and over time in the changes of minimum school leaving age we study the effects of the quantity of education on the distribution of earnings we find that compulsory school reforms significantly affect educational attainment especially among individuals belonging to the lowest quantiles of the distribution of ability there is also evidence that additional education reduces conditional wage inequality and that education and ability are substitutes in the earnings function

micro economic determinants of tourist expenditure a quantile regression approach abstract we assess the effect of the main determinants of tourist expenditure by applying both linear and quantile regression models to individual micro data collected by a survey addressed to non resident tourists who spent their holidays in sardinia during the period april october 2012 we find that in addition to income and foreign nationality tourist expenditure is crucially driven by trip related party size stay length accommodation sea and sun typology and transport modality and psychographic characteristics repeated visits and holiday motivations moreover our results indicate that the effects vary with respect to the expenditure component and the level of spending thus confirming the high complexity of the tourism product higher positive effects were found for heavy spenders in the case of foreign nationality previous visits and notoriety motivated holidays while party size and the number of visited sites contribute to reducing the level of expenditure for light spending tourists

reversal of fortunes the rise and fall of lifetime earnings of iranian men abstractthe islamic revolution of 1979 the 8 year war with iraq 1980 88 and the collapse of oil prices in 1986 dealt huge blows to iran s economy in this article we use a pseudopanel constructed from annual multiple surveys during 1984 2004 to analyze changes in cohort earnings and consumption through these tumultuous times using well known techniques we decompose the changes in median cohort earnings of men into cohort age and year effects our results show that cohorts born before 1950 who were well into their careers at the time of the revolution enjoyed a steady increase in lifetime earnings however those born after the mid 1960s who started their careers during the revolution and the war with iraq experienced losses relative to previous cohorts in contrast to earnings per capita expenditures do not indicate a declining cohort trend for younger cohorts when we restrict the year effects to cyclical variation only the cohort effects show a rising trend we interpret the difference in

the demand for health some new empirical evidence this paper presents some new estimates of the pure investment and pure consumption models of the demand for health in contrast to previous studies the paper presents parameter estimates of both reduced form and structural demand for health care equations the latter which are obtained by treating health capital as a latent variable in a recursive equation system provide a safer way of checking the consistency of the model s predictions with the data the present analysis of the pure consumption model differs from previous analyses in its recognition of the dependency of the shadow price of initial assets on the entire lifetime profiles of the model s exogenous variables the paper also explores the implications in terms of reliability of parameter estimates of the failure on the part of previous studies to recognize this

the decline of labour market institutions and the rise in wage inequality in britain abstract at the same time as the role of labour market institutions declined very dramatically in britain there was a very sharp rise in wage inequality that since 1980 has increased at a faster pace than in most advanced countries britain in the 1980s and early 1990s therefore provides a very good testing ground for evaluating the importance of labour market institutions in explaining the evolution of the wage structure i look at this in terms of two institutions that have traditionally propped up wage levels at the bottom end of the wage distribution unions and minimum wages i find that their weakening has played an important part in the rise in wage inequality in britain

changes in the distribution of house prices over time structural characteristics neighborhood or coefficients quantile hedonic house price function estimates imply that appreciation rates were higher between 1995 and 2005 for high priced homes in chicago decompositions of temporal changes in the house price distribution suggest that the types of homes sold and their location do not account for the change in the price distribution rather higher appreciation rates for high priced homes are explained by differences in the quantile regression coefficients over time

the changing distribution of male wages in the uk this paper uses microeconomic data from the u k family expenditure surveys fes and the general household surveys ghs to describe and explain changes in the distribution of male wages since the late 1970s wage inequality has risen very fast in the u k and this rise is characterized both by increasing education and age differentials we show that a large part of the changes in the u k can be summarized quite simply as increases in eduction differentials and a decline of growth of entry level wages which persist subsequently this fact we interpret as cohort effects we also show that like in the u s an important aspect of rising wage inequality is increased within group wage dispersion finally we use the ghs to evaluate the role of alternative education measures

income variance dynamics and heterogeneity recent theoretical work has shown the importance of measuring microeconomic uncertainty for models of both general and partial equilibrium under imperfect insurance in this paper the assumption of i i d income innovations used in previous empirical studies is removed and the focus of the analysis is placed on models for the conditional variance of income shocks which is related to the measure of risk emphasized by the theory we first discriminate amongst various models of earnings determination that separate income shocks into idiosyncratic transitory and permanent components we allow for education and time specific differences in the stochastic process for earnings and for measurement error the conditional variance of the income shocks is modelled as a parsimonious arch process with both observable and unobserved heterogeneity the empirical analysis is conducted on data drawn from the 1967 1992 panel study of income dynamics we find strong evidence of sizeable arch effects as well as evidence of unobserved heterogeneity in the variances

the college wage premium and the expansion of higher education in the uk this paper reports estimates of the uk college premium for young graduates across successive cohorts from large cross section datasets for the uk pooled from 1994 to 2006 a period when the higher education participation rate increased dramatically the growth in relative labour demand suggests that graduate supply considerably outstripped demand which ought to imply a fall in the premium we find no significant fall for men and even a large but insignificant rise for women quantile regression results reveal a fall in the premium only for men in the bottom quartile of the distribution of unobserved skills

demand for health a generalised grossman model the demand for health and medical care is analysed within a generalised grossman type health investment model its underlying assumptions are shown to differ from those employed earlier in a manner which avoids some of the criticisms levelled at grossman s model the comparative static predictions of the generalised model are examined and it is demonstrated that most previous health investment models are derivable from it also the present model is applicable to a new wider range of problems thus increasing the scope of economic explanations of health behaviour