nonseparable preferences frisch labor supply and the consumption multiplier of government spending one solution to a fiscal policy puzzle this paper proposes a theoretical explanation of the positive consumption multipliers of government spending often found in the data the explanation requires two ingredients first labor demand expands e g prices are sticky second general nonseparable preferences over consumption and leisure should be such that the two goods are substitutes that is frisch labor supply elasticity is lower than the constant consumption elasticity this implies that constant consumption labor supply shifts left existing empirical evidence on the relative magnitudes of the two elasticities supports this hypothesis the parametric conditions under which the result occurs are consistent with restrictions of concavity and noninferiority of consumption and leisure

how do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates new evidence for the united states abstract using vector autoregressions on u s time series relative to an aggregate of industrialized countries this paper provides new evidence on the dynamic effects of government spending and technology shocks on the real exchange rate and the terms of trade to achieve identification we derive robust restrictions on the sign of several impulse responses from a two country general equilibrium model we find that both the real exchange rate and the terms of trade whose responses are left unrestricted depreciate in response to expansionary government spending shocks and appreciate in response to positive technology shocks

intertemporal substitution and nonhomothetic preferences this study uses a model with nonseparable and nonhomothetic preferences to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution ies we show that while the assumption of homotheticity is strongly rejected the estimated ies is positive and significant

cyclical effects of government s employment and goods purchases distinguishing between the goods purchase and employee compensation components of government spending is important shocks to government goods purchases and shocks to government employment have the opposite effects on private output private employment and private investment moreover with this distinction in place quantitative analysis reveals that government spending is no longer a significant driving source of the u s business cycle on the contrary the components of government spending are procyclical in the u s data primarily because of their positive responses to the output fluctuations generated by technology shocks copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

equilibrium indeterminacy and asset price fluctuation in japan a bayesian investigation this paper investigates sources of asset price fluctuation in japan using an estimated financial accelerator model for explicit treatment of expectational beliefs characterized by sunspots the model is analyzed over the parameter space where the equilibrium can be indeterminate we show that indeterminacy arises if the financial accelerator effect is sufficiently large according to our bayesian estimation results japan s economy was affected by sunspot shocks however the contribution of the sunspots to asset price volatility was low rather net worth and cost shocks drove the asset price fluctuation we find however that the sunspots substantially affected capital investment

can government spending increase private consumption the role of complementarity abstract it is empirically observed that private consumption responds positively to fiscal shocks we offer an explanation for this stylized fact based on the idea of complementarity between public and private consumption

current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations hours worked and the return to working are weakly correlated traditionally the ability to account for this fact has been a litmus test for macroeconomic models existing real business cycle models fail this test dramatically we modify prototypical real business cycle models by allowing government consumption shocks to influence labor market dynamics this modification can in principle bring the models into closer conformity with the data our empirical results indicate that it does

output effects of government purchases the theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases under plausible conditions the temporary case involves an output response that is positive less than one to one with the change in government purchases and larger than that generated by an equal sized but permanent shift in purchase the equilibrium real rate of return rise in the temporary case but changes little in the permanent one defense purchases are divided empirically into permanent and temporary components by considering the role of temporary wars no temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases the results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally supportive of the theory

consumption government spending and the real exchange rate using panel structural var analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries we document that an increase in government purchases raises output and private consumption deteriorates the trade balance and depreciates the real exchange rate this pattern of comovement poses a puzzle for both neoclassical and keynesian models an explanation based on the deep habit mechanism is proposed an estimated two country model with deep habits is shown to replicate well the observed responses of output consumption and the trade balance and the initial response of the real exchange rate to an estimated government spending shock

the effect of government spending on private consumption a puzzle the empirical finding that cyclical changes in government spending tend to be associated with positive responses of private consumption has been interpreted as a challenge for representative agent intertemporal optimizing theories which usually imply that the negative wealth effect of higher fiscal spending reduces the households consumption and leisure the present paper shows that the evidence can be explained by a standard real business cycle type model with a nonadditively separable utility function and a small intertemporal consumption elasticity higher fiscal spending can raise consumption and lower investment as in the data the nonseparable utility model is shown to imply the same consumption euler equation as a model with rule of thumb consumers who mechanically spend their income

why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock recent empirical evidence suggests that private consumption is crowded in by government spending this outcome violates existing macroeconomic theory according to which the negative wealth effect brought about by a rise in public expenditure should decrease consumption

productive government expenditures and long run growth the purpose of this paper is to review some of the recent developments in endogenous growth models specifically our focus is on the growth effects of productive government spending in dynamic general equilibrium models we use a simple overlapping generations model as our basic framework and illustrate the role of taxes and spending we then examine several related issues nonrivalry in publicly provided goods existence and uniqueness of competitive equilibrium endogenous public policy ways of financing public expenditures composition of publicly provided goods and services and private alternatives finally we review some empirical results related to output elasticity of public capital and educational expenditures

nonseparable preferences fiscal policy puzzles and inferior goods nonseparable preferences over consumption and leisure can generate an increase in private consumption in response to government spending as found in the data in a frictionless business cycle model however the conditions on preferences required for these result to obtain hold if and only if the consumption good is inferior similarly positive co movement of consumption and hours worked occurs if and only if either consumption or leisure is inferior

private and government consumption with liquidity constraints abstract economic theory predicts that liquidity constraints and substitutability or complementarity between private and government consumption result in excess sensitivity of private consumption to income and government consumption respectively using annual data we estimate these excess sensitivity parameters for each of 54 countries and show that they not only have sensible values but are also correlated with several variables in ways consistent with economic theory our findings imply that the degree of substitutability between government services and private consumption depends negatively on the fraction of government spending that goes to national defense we also find that liquidity constraints typically exist and they are affected positively by output variability and negatively by the saving rate

government investment and fiscal stimulus effects of government investment are studied in an estimated neoclassical growth model the analysis focuses on two dimensions that are critical for understanding government investment as a fiscal stimulus implementation delays for building public capital and expected fiscal adjustments to deficit financed spending implementation delays can produce small or even negative labor and output responses to increases in government investment in the short run anticipated fiscal adjustments matter both quantitatively and qualitatively for long run growth effects when public capital is insufficiently productive distorting financing can make government investment contractionary at longer horizons

the effects of fiscal shocks on employment and the real wage we study the transmission of fiscal shocks in the labor market we employ a structural var and base identification on the restrictions that shocks to government consumption investment and employment must raise output and deficits these restrictions hold in both prototype real business cycle rbc and new keynesian models shocks to government consumption and investment increase real wages and employment contemporaneously both at state level and in the aggregate the dynamics in response to employment shocks are mixed increases in government employment raise the real wage and total employment in the aggregate however in one third of the states they reduce total employment

consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non traded goods abstract we examine the possibility that non traded goods may account for several striking features of international macroeconomic data large persistent deviations from purchasing power parity small correlations of aggregate consumption fluctuations across countries and substantial international real interest rate differentials a dynamic exchange economy is used to show that non traded goods in principle can account for each of these phenomena in the theory there is a close relation between fluctuations in consumption ratios and those in bilateral real exchange rates but we find little evidence for this relation in time series data for eight oecd countries

two fiscal policy puzzles revisited new evidence and an explanation abstract this paper examines two fiscal policy puzzles related to the effects of government spending shocks contrary to theoretical predictions recent empirical evidence suggests a crowding in of consumption and a depreciation of the real exchange rate after a government spending increase while several studies have been made to reconcile the conflicting results this paper provides new time series evidence and proposes an alternative explanation using the japanese data the empirical responses of consumption and the real exchange rate after government spending shocks are shown to be well replicated by an estimated medium scale open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model augmented with i edgeworth complementarity between private and government consumption and ii productive public capital furthermore sensitivity analysis suggests that the combination of edgeworth complementarity home bias and incomplete asset market allows the model to account for an immediate increase in consumption and for a hump shaped depreciation of the real exchange rate after a government consumption shock this result is potentially important in preventing the model from showing the consumption real exchange rate anomaly after the shock

fiscal policy the real exchange rate and traded goods we estimate the effects of government spending shocks on the cpi real exchange rate the trade balance and their co movements with gdp and private consumption we decompose the variations of the cpi real exchange rate into variations of the traded goods real exchange rate and the relative price of traded to non traded goods we reach three main conclusions a rise in government spending induces a depreciation of the cpi real exchange rate and a trade balance deficit private consumption rises in response to a government spending shock and therefore co moves positively with the real exchange rate both components of the cpi real exchange depreciate we employ vector auto regression var techniques to estimate the effects of fiscal policy and in particular government spending on the cpi real exchange rate and the trade balance in the us and three other oecd countries our empirical analysis delivers two key results first a rise in government spending tends to induce a real exchange rate depreciation and a trade balance deficit although especially in the us the latter effect tends to be small second in all countries private consumption rises in response to a government spending shock and therefore co moves positively with the real exchange rate two important implications follow from these results our evidence provides support for a traditional twin deficit hypothesis in stark contrast with a recent study by kim and roubini 2008 a second implication concerns the consistency of facts and theory both the response of the real exchange rate and its co movement with private consumption and the trade balance are at odds with a benchmark general equilibrium open economy model featuring complete financial markets in fact while the model is successful in replicating the negative response of the trade balance to a government spending shock that we observe in the data and also in linking the magnitude of that response to the degree of openness it has counterfactual predictions on the response of the real exchange rate and of private consumption we argue that the key failure of the model lies in the equilibrium behaviour of private consumption in the model as a result of a typical wealth effect on labour supply private consumption falls in response to a rise in government spending whereas the opposite is true in the data this in turn explains the behaviour of the real exchange rate in the reference model with complete asset markets a risk sharing arbitrage condition ties the ratio of the marginal utilities of consumption across countries to the real exchange rate via this condition and provided that deviations from purchasing power parity are feasible the fall in consumption is accompanied by an equilibrium appreciation of the real exchange rate we proceed by investigating further the sources of the cpi real exchange rate movements in the data a traditional approach decomposes the real exchange rate into two terms

government spending and private consumption some international evidence this paper investigates the relationship between private consumption and publicly provided goods and services for a number of countries the empirical results show that in the aggregate private and government consumption are best described as complementary in the sense that an increase in one raises the marginal utility of the other the strength of this relationship is shown to be negatively affected by the government size these findings are robust across all specifications tried copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

is public expenditure productive abstract this paper considers the relationship between aggregate productivity and stock and flow government spending variables the empirical results indicate that i the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending ii military capital bears little relation to productivity and iii a core infrastructure of streets highways airports mass transit sewers water systems etc has most explanatory power for productivity the paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the productivity slowdown of the last fifteen years

what are the effects of fiscal policy shocks we propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions specifically we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock while controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock we explicitly allow for the possibility of announcement effects i e that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future but not at present we construct the impulse responses to three linear combinations of these fiscal shocks corresponding to the three scenarios of deficit spending deficit financed tax cuts and a balanced budget spending expansion we apply the method to us quarterly data from 1955 to 2000 we find that deficit financed tax cuts work best among these three scenarios to improve gdp with a maximal present value multiplier of five dollars of total additional gdp per each dollar of the total cut in government revenue 5 years after the shock copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

hysteresis in unemployment evidence from 48 u s states i introduction one central idea in macroeconomics is the equilibrium unemployment rate hypothesis 1 in many macroeconomic models which allow for some degree of price stickiness fluctuations in demand and supply may lead to deviations of the actual unemployment rate from its equilibrium value these deviations in turn trigger changes in the inflation rate there is nothing in the equilibrium unemployment rate literature which even vaguely suggests such a rate is constant indeed many studies have analyzed the factors which cause the equilibrium unemployment rate to change over time or across areas for example summers 1986 presents evidence of an increased normal u s unemployment rate since the mid 1960s and argues that this increase has in large part resulted from high and growing noncompetitive wage differentials barro 1988 addresses the issue of persistence of unemployment in various countries over a number of time periods and relates measures of persistence to variables that matter theoretically for the economy s speed of adjustment blanchard and summers 1986 1987 propose the so called hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis is the term used to describe the long lasting influence of history on the natural rate a recession potentially has permanent effects if it changes attitudes and or characteristics of the unemployed and particularly the long term unemployed furthermore the latter may exert less pressure on the wage setting because they will become outsiders in the labor market the insiders union members or currently employed workers have much incentive to keep wages from falling 2 the hysteresis hypothesis of unemployment has important policy implications it suggests that high unemployment if left by itself may persist and continue to be a serious problem in the economy even in the long run this possibility leaves more room for active government policies to fight recessions and manage the economy the fact that the actual unemployment rate may not fluctuate around some natural rate suggests the possibility of nonstationarity in the unemployment series this relationship can be illustrated with a simple model from wyplosz 1987 or brunello 1990 consider the following phillips curve 1 mathematical expression omitted where p sub t is the current inflation rate e sub t i p sub t is the expected inflation rate of time t given information at time t 1 u sub t is the current unemployment rate mathematical expression omitted is the natural unemployment rate beta is the slope of the phillips curve and xi sub t is an error term the possibility of hysteresis arises when the natural rate is a function of past unemployment rates this can be expressed as follows 2 mathematical expression omitted where c and alpha are constants and zeta sub t is an error term substituting 2 into 1 yields 3 u sub t c alpha u sub t 1 epsilon sub t where epsilon sub t 1 beta e sub t 1 p sub t p sub t xi sub t zeta sub t hysteresis requires the parameter alpha in 3 to be equal to one 3 it implies that once disturbed the unemployment rate tends to wander around without returning to a mean value in this case the unemployment rate and also the natural rate contain a unit root in contrast when alpha is between zero and one the natural rate evolves towards its steady state level c 1 alpha and the weak version of the natural rate hypothesis holds as long as alpha is larger than zero there is persistence in unemployment rate in the sense that past unemployment affects the natural rate we however seek to test for the existence of hysteresis the extreme version of persistence finally when the parameter alpha equals zero the natural rate stays at a constant level c

the informational value of unemployment statistics a note on the time series properties of participation rates abstract using a battery of unit root tests we show that labor force participation rates in australia canada and the u s are non stationary this implies that great care is needed before unemployment rates are used as measures of joblessness

consumption real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets abstract international real business cycle irbc models that assume complete asset markets yield strong restrictions for consumption and bilateral real exchange rate series empirical tests with data for the us japan france uk italy canada and sweden suggest that neither the trend behavior nor high frequency movements of consumption and real exchange rates are well explained by irbc models with complete markets it appears however that high frequency fluctuations of consumption and real exchange rates are consistent with unrestricted international trade in risk free bonds

introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model the current nancial crisis has made it abundantly clear that business cycle modeling no longer can abstract from nancial factors it is also becoming increasingly clear that the stylized modeling of labor markets without explicit unemployment that is the current standard approach has its limitations some questions which the dominating extant business cycle models are mute on but that we would like to answer are how important are nancial and labor market frictions for the business cycle dynamics of a

fiscal policy in general equilibrium this paper studies four classic fiscal policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model the authors main findings are as follows 1 permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short run and long run output multipliers that exceed one 2 permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes 3 the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases and 4 public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment these findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy copyright 1993 by american economic association

fiscal stimulus with spending reversals abstract the short run effects of fiscal policy depend not only on current tax and spending choices but also on expectations about future policy adjustment while general equilibrium models typically restrict medium term adjustment to taxation we highlight the importance of government spending dynamics first we provide time series evidence for the united states suggesting that an exogenous increase in government spending prompts a rise in public debt followed over time by a reduction in spending below trend second we show how expected spending reversals alter the short run impact of fiscal policy in a new keynesian model bringing it closer in line with the evidence

how much do farmers value their independence a farmer s decision to contract or produce independently depends on the distribution of income and the nonpecuniary attributes associated with both business arrangements the benefits to growers from contracting such as risk reduction may be overestimated if the nonpecuniary benefits enjoyed by independent producers such as the right to make management decisions and own the commodity produced are not accounted for this study uses data from a u s national survey of hog producers to estimate 1 the difference in expected net returns between contracting and independent production 2 the premium a representative farmer would pay for the risk reduction provided by a contract and 3 the premium a farmer would pay for the nonpecuniary benefits associated with independent production results indicate that growers have a strong preference for autonomy with moderately risk averse growers being willing to pay more for the attributes of independent production than they would for the risk reducing benefits of a contract

the transitional dynamics of fiscal policy long run capital accumulation and growth this paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policies in a non scale growing economy with public and private capital the equilibrium dynamics are characterized and we contrast the dynamic effects of government expenditure on investment and expenditure on consumption under four alternative modes of tax financing most of our attention focuses on the numerical simulations of a calibrated economy the results emphasize the lengthy transition periods which implies that policies have sizeable level effects leading to substantial welfare effects even though long run growth rates are unaffected the paper highlights the intertemporal dimensions of fiscal policy and the tradeoffs these involve for economic performance especially growth and welfare

long run implications of investment specific technological change an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional hicksneutral form of technological progress the balanced growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to u s national income and product account nipa data the quantitative analysis suggests that investment specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth jel e13 030 041 047

twin deficit or twin divergence fiscal policy current account and real exchange rate in the u s abstract in spite of concerns about twin deficits fiscal and the current account deficits for the united states economy empirical evidence suggests that twin divergence is a more usual feature of the historical data i e when fiscal accounts worsen the current account improves and vice versa this paper empirically studies the effects of fiscal policy government budget deficit shocks on the current account and the real exchange rate during the flexible exchange rate regime period based on var vector auto regression models we identified exogenous fiscal policy shocks after controlling for business cycle effects on fiscal balances in contrast to the predictions of most theoretical models the u s results suggest that an expansionary fiscal policy shock or a government budget deficit shock improve the current account and depreciate the real exchange rate increases in private savings and declines in investment contribute to the current account improvement while a nominal exchange rate depreciation as opposed to a relative price level change is mainly responsible for the real exchange rate depreciation the twin divergence of fiscal balances and current account balances is also explained by the prevalence of output shocks i e output shocks more than fiscal shocks appear to drive the co movements of the current account and the fiscal balance

an empirical analysis on the substitutability between private consumption and government purchases abstract this paper estimates substitutability of government purchases for private consumption using an optimal consumption model the utility function features several types of nonseparabilities the paper finds that gmm estimates are affected by the specification of nonseparability between private consumption and government purchases by the restriction of time separability and by the measurement of real interest rates

hysteresis and fiscal policy abstract empirical studies support the hysteresis hypothesis that recessions have a permanent effect on the level of output we analyze the implications of hysteresis for fiscal policy in a dsge model we assume a simple learning by doing mechanism where demand driven changes in employment can affect the level of productivity permanently leading to hysteresis in output we show that the fiscal output multiplier is much larger in the presence of hysteresis and that the welfare multiplier of fiscal policy the consumption equivalent change in welfare for one dollar change in public spending is positive negative in the presence absence of hysteresis the main benefit of accommodative fiscal policy in the presence of hysteresis is to diminish the damage of a recession to the long term level of productivity and thus output

the composition of government expenditure and its consequences for macroeconomic performance abstract this paper employs the intertemporal optimizing market clearing framework to compare the effects of government consumption expenditure and government infrastructure expenditure on macroeconomic adjustment and performance particular attention is focused on the time path of the capital stock and its adjustment to both permanent and temporary changes in government expenditure are considered we show how the effects of both forms of government expenditure on economic welfare can be broken down into 1 i a direct crowding out effect and 2 ii a second component which describes the intertemporal tradeoffs between the short run rate of capital accumulation and the resulting change in the capital stock

hysteresis vs natural rate of unemployment new evidence for oecd countries abstract the paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 oecd countries we apply a sequential procedure based in two multivariate augmented dickey fuller test adf type panel unit root tests in a sure framework we strongly reject the joint null of hysteresis and find that only seven countries present evidence of hysteresis

public goods merit goods and the relation between private and government consumption in this paper we investigate the relation between public and private consumption by constructing a general government spending data set by function for 12 european countries in particular we split government consumption into two categories the 1rst category public goods includes defence public order and justice the second category merit goods includes health education and other services that could have been provided privately equations from a relatively general permanent income model are estimated by gmm the estimates are fairly robust in showing that public goods substitute while merit goods complement private consumption however the relation between merit goods and private goods turns out to be stronger than that between public goods and private goods thus in the aggregate government and private consumption are complements c