credible public policy abstract credible public policy is defined in a way that incorporates competitive equilibrium behavior for households and subgame perfect nash equilibrium behavior for the government it is shown that the set of all equilibrium outcome paths for credible policies can be constructed by using arguments analogous to those of abreu 1988 for repeated games the results are then extended to systems with state variables simple models of monetary policy and capital taxation are studied by way of example

fiscal policy and growth in a small open economy with elastic labour supply endogenizing labour supply leads to fundamental changes in the equilibrium structure of the ak growth model of a small open economy the balanced growth equilibrium is described by two tradeoff loci relating the equilibrium growth rate to the fraction of time devoted to leisure the implications of endogenous labour supply for fiscal policy are addressed the effects of distortionary taxes and government expenditure on the equilibrium growth leisure employment tradeoff are analysed the responses contrast with both those of a closed economy having an elastic labour supply and an open economy with fixed labour supply optimal fiscal policy is also characterized jel classification f41 f43 politique fiscale et croissance dans une petite economie ouverte quand l offre de travail est elastique l endogeneisation de l offre de travail entraine des changements fondamentaux dans la structure d equilibre du modele de croissance du type ak d une petite economie ouverte l equilibre de croissance balancee est decrit par deux lieux de relations d equivalence reliant le taux de croissance d equilibre a la fraction du temps allouee au loisir on examine les implications de cette endogen6isation de l offre de travail pour la politique fiscale on analyse les effets de taxes distorsionnantes et des depenses gouvemementales sur la relation d 6equivalence entre taux de croissance et loisir et donc emploi on obtient des reactions differentes de celles qu on obtient en economie ferm6e quand l offre de travail est elastique et en economie ouverte quand l offre de travail est fixe on proc ede alors a la definition de la politique fiscale optimale

tax structure and growth are some taxes better than others using pooled cross sectional data from 23 oecd countries between1965 and 1990 i find evidence that the tax structure affectseconomic growth specifically the proportion of tax revenueraised by taxing personal income has a negative correlation witheconomic growth this result is robust to a rigorous sensitivityanalysis where i control for other plausible growth determinantsin a systematic manner also there is some empirical evidencethat tax progressivity measured in terms of the long run incomeelasticity of tax revenue is associated with low economicgrowth

the drivers of structural change the main goal of this paper is to provide an integrated survey of the literature devoted to identifying the drivers of structural change broadly defined as the process of reallocation of economic activity across the three broad sectors agriculture manufacturing and services using the ggdc 10 sector database this paper first presents the empirical facts associated with structural change in different regions of the world that is europe and the usa asia latin america and africa then reviews four determinants of structural change i changes in income ii changes in relative sectoral prices iii changes in input output linkages and iv changes in comparative advantage s via globalization and trade

optimal taxation in models of endogenous growth we study the problem of optimal taxation in three infinite horizon representative agent endogenous growth models the first model is a convex model in which physical and human capital are perfectly symmetric our second model incorporates elastic labor supply through a lucas style technology analysis of these two models points out the danger of assuming that government expenditures are exogenous in our third model we include government expenditures as a productive input in capital formation showing that the limiting tax rate on capital is no longer zero in numerical simulations we find similar effects on growth and welfare in all three models

a federal voting mechanism to solve the fiscal externality problem abstract fiscal externalities arise whenever several countries choose independently some tax or regulation policy this results into a severe loss for everybody if the taxed or regulated factor is very mobile for example this implies a bias toward little or no capital taxation if capital can move easily toward the lowest tax rate federalism would induce voters to internalize these externalities but implies full harmonization which harms countries whose most preferred policy is too far from the federal median which may lead them not to enter the federation in the first place we study a natural intermediate mechanism between full independence and full federalism introducing flexible divisions of the surplus generated by the removal of these externalities in the first stage voting takes place in each country simultaneously in order to choose a federal policy in the second stage each country decides through voting whether to adopt the federal policy or to leave the federation in which case it chooses its own policy and possibly pays a fixed cost to the remaining federation even if the fixed cost is null the federal voting stage acts as a commitment device and softens the inefficiency of full independence by allowing voters to internalize the undesirable effects of federal break up in stage 2 moreover the fixed cost can be chosen so that situations where harmonization is desirable get self selected as a result every country always benefits from entering this mechanism combining the benefits of common decision making with those of flexibility

product quality product price and share dynamics in the german compact car market the present paper examines one of the central elements of evolutionary thinking the replicator dynamics mechanism using data on product characteristics of automobiles sold on the german domestic market over the period 2001 2006 we construct a fitness variable for each car model applying non parametric efficiency measurement techniques better known as data envelopment analysis dea the basic question we intend to answer is whether cars providing a higher quality price ratio for consumers tend to increase their market share compared to variants with lower quality price ratio for consumers the relationship between a car models fitness and its market performance is empirically tested in a regression framework the results show that the principle of growth of the fitter is working as suggested by evolutionary theory in particular we find that car models with considerably lower fitness than the market average lose whereas models with above average fitness gain additional market shares

optimal taxation and intergovernmental transfer in a dynamic model with multiple levels of government abstract in this paper we study the optimal choices of the federal income tax federal transfers and local taxes in a dynamic model of capital accumulation and with explicit game structures among multiple private agents multiple local governments and the federal government in general the optimal local property tax is zero if the local property tax is constrained to be nonnegative whereas the optimal local consumption tax is always positive when the local consumption tax is chosen optimally the federal income tax can be either positive or negative for most reasonable parameter values our numerical calculations have shown that with a positive local consumption tax there exists a reverse transfer from local governments to the federal government

structural transformation and the deterioration of european labor market outcomes this paper examines hours worked in continental europe and the united states from 1956 to 2003 the empirical work establishes two results first hours worked in europe decline by almost 45 percent compared to the united states over this period second this decline is almost entirely accounted for by the fact that europe develops a much smaller market service sector than the united states a simple model of time allocation is used to understand these patterns i find that relative increases in taxes and technological catch up can account for most of the differences between the european and american time allocations over this period

growth effect of taxes in an endogenous growth model to what extent do taxes affect economic growth abstract this paper presents an endogenous growth model comprising of financial human and physical capital and incorporating major features of a general tax system technology and preference parameter values in the model are chosen to fit the actual growth experiences of the united states and a rapidly growing east asian nic using the calibrated model i assess the role of differences in taxes and other variables in explaining the difference in growth rates the main findings are i the difference in tax systems across countries explains a significant proportion around 30 of the difference in growth rates ii the difference in preferences explains at most 4 and iii differences in labor income tax debt equity ratio and inflation can be important in explaining the growth difference further i evaluate the contribution of the monetary factor to the growth rate gap and the growth effect of us tax reforms e g revenue neutral changes in relative tax structure

which sectors make poor countries so unproductive which sectors are most responsible for the low total factor productivities of developing countries to answer this question we develop a new framework for sectoral development accounting applying this framework to the penn world table we find that in equipment construction and food the sectoral tfp differences between developing countries and the united states are much larger than in the aggregate however in manufactured consumption the sectoral tfp differences are about equal to the aggregate tfp differences and in services they are much smaller we show that our level of disaggregation allows us to reconcile the results of existing studies of sectoral productivity differences which have focused on noncomparable two sector decompositions of the aggregate data we also show that our results help shed light on existing theories of aggregate tfp differences

redistributive taxation in a simple perfect foresight model abstract we investigate the redistributive potential of capital taxation in an intertemporal maximizing model of capital formation first even unanticipated redistributive capital taxation is severely limited in its effectiveness since it depresses wages second under any convergent redistributive tax policy which maximizes a paretian social objective the capital income tax will converge to zero independent of the factor supply elasticities these results are independent of workers holdings of capital

productive government expenditures and long run growth the purpose of this paper is to review some of the recent developments in endogenous growth models specifically our focus is on the growth effects of productive government spending in dynamic general equilibrium models we use a simple overlapping generations model as our basic framework and illustrate the role of taxes and spending we then examine several related issues nonrivalry in publicly provided goods existence and uniqueness of competitive equilibrium endogenous public policy ways of financing public expenditures composition of publicly provided goods and services and private alternatives finally we review some empirical results related to output elasticity of public capital and educational expenditures

on the taxation of human and physical capital in models of endogenous growth abstract this paper studies the effects of factor income taxation and of subsidies to human capital accumulation in models of endogenous growth it examines in particular how these effects depend on the specification of the leisure activity and on the technology and tax treatment of the sector producing human capital it shows that the negative effects of factor income taxes on economic growth are stronger when the human capital sector is a market good under these circumstances a subsidy to human capital accumulation can offset the direct growth effects of labor taxation making it akin to a consumption tax the paper then briefly discusses the normative implications of the analysis for the optimal taxation of factor incomes

structural change and economic growth this paper presents a model in which a country s measured average propensity to save endogenously rises when its economy industrializes the model has agricultural and manufacturing sectors only agriculture uses land if at early dates income per capita is low agricultural consumption is important land is valuable and capital gains on land may constitute most wealth accumulation leaving the country s nipa aps low if exogenous technological progress raises incomes over time engel s law shifts demand to manufactured goods then land s portfolio importance relative to reproducible capital diminishes and the national income and products account saving rate can rise this paper presents a model illustrating that structural change due to the operation of engel s law can systematically affect an economy s measured saving rate according to the model a country s national income and product account average propensity to save will rise naturally if and when technological progress sufficiently lifts its income per capita this suggests a new interpretation of time series evidence while saving rates historically tend to be higher after industrialization than before one cannot automatically infer that changing wealth accumulation behaviour led to modernization rather structural change accompanying growth may have caused the rise in saving rates this paper also warns that international trade could lead to a contrasting pattern in cross sectional data highincome nations might contemporaneously have lower measured saving rates than poor countries recent work by mankiw romer and weil 1992 islam 1995 mankiw 1995 and others investigates long run patterns the analyses assume that each economy has attained or is moving toward a steady state equilibrium as in solow 1956 a country s steady state level of per capita gdp depends on its average propensity to save aps its rate of population growth the efficiency of its production sector etc regression outcomes seem consistent with the solow model s prediction that a higher aps will ceteris paribus lead to a higher level of income per capita the idea is that heterogeneity of exogenous preferences leads to international differences in aps s and in turn to long run differences

the role of the structural transformation in aggregate productivity we investigate the role of sectoral differences in labor productivity in explaining the process of structural transformation the secular reallocation of labor across sectors and the time path of aggregate productivity across countries using a simple model of the structural transformation that is calibrated to the growth experience of the united states we measure sectoral labor productivity differences across countries productivity differences between rich and poor countries are large in agriculture and services and smaller in manufacturing moreover over time productivity gaps have been substantially reduced in agriculture and industry but not nearly as much in services in the model these sectoral productivity patterns generate implications that are broadly consistent with the cross country evidence on the structural transformation aggregate productivity paths and relative prices we show that productivity catch up in industry explains about 50 percent of the gains in aggregate productivity across countries while low relative productivity in services and the lack of catch up explains all the experiences of slowdown stagnation and decline observed across countries

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

structural change and the kaldor facts in a growth model with relative price effects and non gorman preferences u s data reveal three facts 1 the share of goods in total expenditure declines at a constant rate over time 2 the price of goods relative to services declines at a constant rate over time and 3 poor households spend a larger fraction of their budget on goods than do rich households i provide a macroeconomic model with non gorman preferences that rationalizes these facts along with the aggregate kaldor facts the model is parsimonious and admits an analytical solution its functional form allows a decomposition of u s structural change into an income and substitution effect estimates from micro data show each of these effects to be of roughly equal importance

relative prices and sectoral productivity the relative price of services rises with development a standard interpretation of this fact is that productivity differences across countries are larger in manufacturing than in services the service sector comprises heterogeneous categories we document that many disaggregated service categories such as transportation communication and finance feature a negative income elasticity of relative prices whereas the relative price of aggregate services is mostly driven by large expenditure categories in housing collective government and health that feature a positive income elasticity of relative prices we also document a substantial reallocation of expenditures in services from categories with positive income elasticities traditional services to categories with negative elasticities non traditional services as income rises using an otherwise standard multi sector development accounting framework extended to include an input output structure we find that the cross country income elasticity of sectoral productivity is large in non traditional services 1 15 smaller in manufacturing 1 05 and much smaller in traditional services 0 67 eliminating cross country productivity differences in non traditional services reduces aggregate income disparity by 58 percent a 7 9 fold reduction in aggregate productivity differences we also find that the heterogeneity between traditional and non traditional services has a substantial impact on aggregate productivity and that the input output structure is important in this assessment

technology adoption over the life cycle and aggregate technological progress technology becomes useful only when individuals adopt it for productive activity the manner in which adoption occurs is therefore important for a complete understanding of the evolution of technological change we study a model with exogenously occurring technological progress and endogenous adoption of it individuals with n period lives optimally allocate their time between leisure work and adoption of new technology we show that optimal behavior is characterized by a sequence of four phases of life which described in their order of occurrence are 1 adoption only schooling 2 work and adoption career path 3 work but no adoption end of work life easing 4 no work or adoption retirement the presence of the third phase a period in which older workers choose not to adopt new technology has several implications for the effects of changes in aggregate exogenous technology among these is the implication that a wave of innovation will have a smaller effect when the number of workers in this phase is relatively large this is tested using patent data as a proxy for innovation and the solow residual as a measure of technological progress some support for this proposition is found the model also implies that older third phase workers will appear more productive because each hour of non leisure time will be devoted entirely to productive work rather than being divided between work and technology adoption time the data provides some support for this proposition as well measured productivity is positively correlated with the relative size of the oldest cohort of workers

lifespan and output i introduction this paper presents a finite life model of human capital acquisition time is continuous and individuals have lifespan t technological progress has two components an ease of learning parameter and a knowledge frontier the first reflects the rate of knowledge acquisition for a given amount of learning time and the second reflects the limit on what can be learned we obtain three main results the first is that as lifespan increases output per person hour rises the increase is nearly linear for short lifespans but diminishes at higher lifespans as the knowledge frontier becomes binding an increase in lifespan causes individuals to opt for more pre work learning higher skill levels at the beginning of the working phase and for sufficiently long lifespans more learning during the work phase thus an increase in lifespan raises the skill level and thereby the total human capital and labor supply of a country and consequently its per capita capital stock and output levels 1 the data are consistent with a lifespan impact on output that is positive and diminishes as lifespan increases 2 the second result concerns the technology adoption behavior of working individuals we find that workers will only adopt new technology after they begin working if they have sufficiently long lifespans so that reaching the knowledge frontier is in their interest when lifespans are short individuals begin to work before they reach the knowledge frontier and never attempt to learn anything after that point this aspect of optimal behavior is important because if there is a surge in worldwide technological progress current workers will not adopt the new knowledge in a country characterized by short lifespans rates of transition will therefore be slower for short lifespan countries the final result is that when lifespans differ among countries international differences in output per person can persist even in the presence of perfect markets goods can trade freely capital can move across borders without any borrowing or lending impediments the only restriction is that individuals cannot migrate freely the per capita differences persist because countries that differ in skill levels real wages and per capita output levels will nevertheless have similar per skill unit wages human capital accumulation has received renewed attention in the growth literature 3 prominent examples are jones manuelli and rossi 1993 and caballe and santos 1993 these authors study models in which individuals have infinite lifespans which contrasts with ours where lifespans are finite the finite life behavior of our model reflects the earlier work of ryder stafford and stephan 1976 and has been reviewed in blinder and weiss 1976 in particular these authors describe a four stage sequence learning work and learning learning only and retirement that is also central to our analysis o neill 1995 studies the role of the returns to human capital accumulation in explaining transitional growth rates parente and prescott 1994 study the acquisition of knowledge and also assume an exogenously decreasing cost of knowledge acquisition although in their model firms not individuals engage in the acquisition of knowledge moreover our paper assumes two forms of technology a knowledge frontier and an ease of acquiring it whereas parente and prescott only have the second the present paper builds on swanson kopecky and tucker 1997 who study the business cycle effects of different adoption rates at different ages in this paper we focus on the lifespan effects of a similar model the paper is organized as follows section ii describes the nature of the correlations of lifespan with both current output and future growth section iii develops the finite lifetime model section iv characterizes the behavior of the model and compares it with the evidence provided in section ii

on the optimality of age dependent taxes and the progressive u s tax system abstract in life cycle economies where an individual s optimal consumption work plan is almost never constant the optimal marginal tax rates on capital and labor income vary with age conversely the progressivity imbedded in the u s tax code implies that marginal tax rates vary with age because tax rates vary with earnings and earnings vary with age using numerical simulations this paper shows that if the tax authority is prevented from conditioning tax rates on age some degree of progressivity is desirable as progressive taxation better imitates optimal age dependent taxes than an optimal age independent tax system this role for progressive taxation emanates from efficiency reasons and does not rely on any insurance nor re distribution arguments

beyond replicator dynamics innovation selection dynamics and optimal diversity we propose a new evolutionary approach to model technological change based on an extension of replicator dynamics with recombination and mutation it gives rise to interactive innovation selection dynamics the model allows studying the combined effects of selection and variety generation on evolutionary economic change the developed framework describes a population of boundedly rational entrepreneurs who decide each period on the allocation of investments in different production technologies they tend to invest in belowaverage cost technologies just as under replicator dynamics in addition they spend a constant fraction of investments captured by mutation and recombination rates on alternative technologies and research on recombinant innovation as opposed to most previous studies mutation and recombination are here conceptual variables with a concrete behavioral interpretation namely describing the decision rules heuristics of investors we compare the dynamics of shares of investments in various technologies for three cases with constant costs of capital with costs decreasing steadily and exogenously over time and with costs depending on the level of cumulative investments for each model version we examine under which conditions the coexistence of technological options is feasible and optimal in terms of minimising the average cost of investments authors abstract

structural change in a multisector model of growth we study a multi sector model of growth with differences in tfp growth rates across sectors and derive sufficient conditions for the coexistence of structural change characterized by sectoral labour reallocation and constant aggregate growth path the conditions are weak restrictions on the utility and production functions commonly applied by macroeconomists we present evidence from us two digit industries that is consistent with our predictions about structural change and successfully calibrate the historical shift from agriculture to manufacturing and services we show quantitatively that reasonable deviations from our conditions do not have a big impact on the properties of the model

fiscal policy inflation and the accumulation of risky capital the effect of government policies on the level of investment and inflation has become a major concern of policy makers in a number of industrial countries proposals to raise the level of business investment have included overall tax cuts tax incentives to spur investment and a reduction in the level of government spending this paper presents a theoretical apparatus to explore the relationships between fiscal policy government debt inflation and capital accumulation it develops a one sector growth model embodying a stochastic production function and government fiscal policy atomistic agents in the economy choose consumption levels and allocate their wealth between risky capital and risky government debt to maximize expected discounted utility over an infinite horizon fiscal policy by affecting asset yields affects the composition of portfolios the price of government bonds and the accumulation of capital the model is used to answer three general questions 1 does the level of government expenditure affect the rate of capital accumulation and inflation in steady state 2 does the mode of government finance when the choice is between an income tax and deficit finance affect these magnitudes 3 what is the effect of uncertainty in the productivity of capital on growth the analysis relates to several areas of literature 1 the analysis of the relationship between capital accumulation and debt 2 the theory of the demand for government debt 3 considerations of the effect of income taxation on risk bearing and 4 the analysis of capital accumulation under uncertainty 1 the effects on output and the capital stock of the government s expenditure decision and its decision to finance its expenditure by taxation or debt issue are explored in two major bodies of economic theory the literature on the burden of the debt as developed by modigliani 1961 diamond 1965 and phelps and shell 1969 for example implies that policies which increase the value of outstanding government debt will tend to lower the level of the capital stock by displacing capital with public debt in private wealth the theory of money and growth as represented by tobin 1965 and sidrauski 1967b also implies that government debt displaces capital but specifically recognizes the role of capital gains on government debt

average marginal tax rates from social security and the individual income tax we extend previous estimates of the average marginal tax rate from the federal individual income tax to include social security our computations consider the tax rates on employers employees and the self employed the income that accrues to persons with earnings below the ceiling and the effective deductibility of employers social security contributions from workers taxable income the next effect of social security on the average marginal tax rate is below 02 until 1966 but then rises to 03 in 1968 04 in 1973 05 in 1974 06 in 1979 and 07 in 1982 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

on the optimal taxation of capital income abstract we show that in models in which labor services are supplied jointly with human capital the chamley and judd result on zero capital income taxation in the limit extends to labor taxes as long as accumulation technologies are constant returns to scale moreover for a class of widely used preferences consumption taxes are zero in the limit as well however we show by the construction of two examples that these results no longer hold for certains types of restrictions on tax rates or if there are profits generated journal of economic literatureclassification numbers e62 h21

supply side economics and endogenous growth abstract in a simple convex model of endogenous growth the expansionary effects of a deficit financed tax cut are often strong enough to allow the government debt to be paid off in the long run without the need for subsequent tax increases a permanent and substantial reduction in marginal rates of income taxation can provide for both vigorous real economic growth and long run government budget balance

beyond balanced growth balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well known kaldor facts regarding economic growth these models however are inconsistent with one of the most striking regularities of the growth process the massive reallocation of labour from agriculture into manufacturing and services this paper presents a simple model consistent with both the kaldor facts and the dynamics of sectoral labour reallocation

life expectancy schooling time retirement and growth i analyze how changes in life expectancy affect retirement age education time and growth rates of economies i set up a continuous time overlapping generations model of endogenous growth with externalities in human capital production i find that increases in life expectancy give rise to first higher retirement ages and second higher education spans a threshold level for life expectancy exists such that per capita growth rates follow an inverted u pattern i introduction in this article i analyze how changes in life expectancy may affect optimal education time retirement age and the growth rates of economies to this end i set up a continuous time overlapping generations growth model with human capital accumulation that i solve numerically the issue of the effects of the reduction in mortality rates and the resulting increases in life expectancy on economic growth rates has been recently addressed in the literature through both empirical and theoretical studies along these lines i focus on human capital acquisition and its transmission across generations as the force driving the growth rate concerning empirical studies the hypothesis that the reduction in mortality rates has caused higher levels of investment in human capital and therefore augmented growth rates is partially supported for various economies thus kalemli ozcan et al 2000 show an increase in life expectancy at birth along with an increase in average numbers of years of schooling in england they claim that after averaging across lower income countries there is apparently a connection between increases in life expectancy at birth and increases in gross secondary school enrollment that is positively connected with higher growth rates observed preliminary data from latin american and caribbean countries show that gross domestic product gdp growth is statistically associated with life expectancy for instance estimates based on data from mexico suggest that for any additional year of life expectancy there will be an additional 1 increase in gdp 15 years later see world health organization 1999 box 1 2 9 along the same lines rodriguez and sachs 1999 also find a positive effect of life expectancy on gdp growth for the case of venezuela barro and sala i martin 1995 estimate for a sample of 97 countries that a 13 year increment in life expectancy would increase the per capita growth rate by 1 4 per year they also find however some exceptions where increments in life expectancy have not resulted in higher growth even though all of them exhibited higher schooling levels in the period 1960 85 malmberg 1994 gives another exception higher growth was achieved when middle aged persons were numerous whereas increases in dependent age groups led to lower per capita growth in sweden finally some other studies find mixed evidence so that increments in life expectancy result in higher growth rates for low levels of life expectancy but in lower growth rates for high levels of life expectancy see zhang et al 2003 and references therein a common result in most theoretical studies that include some sort of human capital is that an increase in life expectancy lengthens the period needed to recover investment in human capital which translates into higher returns to individual education or human capital investment this augmented return will give rise to higher levels of investment in human capital which in turn will raise growth rates ehrlich and lui 1991 show in a three overlapping generations model how improvements in longevity lower fertility thus raising educational investment and long term growth meltzer 1995 finds that mortality reductions may favor economic growth by increasing educational investment kalemli ozcan et al 2000 show in an overlapping generations model a la blanchard that if mortality drops life expectancy increases so that an augmented life horizon to enjoy the return to human capital investment gives rise to higher schooling human capital investment although growth is not affected because the growth rate in their model is identically equal to zero

human capital risk and economic growth this paper develops a tractable incomplete markets model of economic growth in which households invest in risk free physical capital and risky human capital the paper shows that a reduction in uninsurable idiosyncratic labor income risk decreases physical capital investment but increases human capital investment growth and welfare a quantitative analysis based on a calibrated version of the model reveals that these effects are substantial and of the same order of magnitude as the effects of distortionary income taxation the analysis further suggests that government sponsored severance payments to displaced workers increase growth and welfare even if these payments have to be e nanced through distortionary income taxation

budget balance welfare and the growth rate dynamic scoring of the long run government budget this paper determines conditions under which a reduction in the role of government either through a tax cut alone or together with accompanying expenditure cuts will improve long run government fiscal balance for a ceteris paribus cut in the income tax rate to improve long run government balance the intertemporal elasticity of substitution must exceed unity a tax cut balanced by an expenditure cut is likely to improve the long run balance even if it does not improve the short run balance the relationship between improving the long run fiscal balance and economic welfare is also analyzed

optimal fiscal policy public capital and the productivity slowdown abstract this paper develops a quantitative theoretical model for the optimal provision of public capital we show that the ratio of public to private capital in the us economy since 1925 evolves in a manner that is broadly consistent with an optimal transition path derived from a simple growth model the model is used to quantify the conditions under which an increase in the stock of public capital is desirable and to investigate the degree to which nonoptimal fiscal policies can account for the us productivity slowdown

corrigendum to congestible public goods and local indeterminacy a two sector endogenous growth model journal of economic dynamics control 31 7 2007 2486 2518

optimal dynamic carbon taxes in a climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy how should carbon be taxed as a part of fiscal policy the literature on optimal carbon pricing often abstracts from other taxes however when governments raise revenues with distortionary taxes carbon levies have fiscal impacts while they raise revenues directly they may shrink the bases of other taxes e g by decreasing employment this article theoretically characterizes and then quantifies optimal carbon taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium climate economy model with distortionary fiscal policy first this article establishes a novel theoretical relationship between the optimal taxation of carbon and of capital income this link arises because carbon emissions destroy natural capital they accumulate in the atmosphere and decrease future output consequently this article shows how the standard logic against capital income taxes extends to distortions on environmental capital investments second this article characterizes optimal climate policy in sub optimal fiscal settings where income taxes are constrained to remain at their observed levels third this article presents a detailed calibration that builds on the seminal dice approach but adds features essential for a setting with distortionary taxes such as a differentiation between climate change production impacts e g on agriculture and direct utility impacts e g on biodiversity existence value the central quantitative finding is that optimal carbon tax schedules are 8 24 lower when there are distortionary taxes compared to the setting with lump sum taxes considered in the literature

is public expenditure productive abstract this paper considers the relationship between aggregate productivity and stock and flow government spending variables the empirical results indicate that i the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending ii military capital bears little relation to productivity and iii a core infrastructure of streets highways airports mass transit sewers water systems etc has most explanatory power for productivity the paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the productivity slowdown of the last fifteen years

a simpler theory of optimal capital taxation abstract this paper develops a theory of optimal capital taxation that expresses optimal tax formulas in sufficient statistics we first consider a simple model with utility functions linear in consumption and featuring heterogeneous utility for wealth in this case there are no transitional dynamics the steady state is reached immediately and has finite elasticities of capital with respect to the net of tax rate this allows for a tractable optimal tax analysis with formulas expressed in terms of empirical elasticities and social preferences that can address many important policy questions these formulas can easily be taken to the data to simulate optimal taxes which we do using u s tax return data on labor and capital incomes second we show how these results can be extended to the case with concave utility for consumption the same types of formulas carry over by appropriately defining elasticities we show that one can recover all the results from the simpler model using a new and non standard steady state approach that respects individual preferences even with a fully general utility function

education and income growth implications for cross country inequality this paper examines the extent to which patterns of human capital convergence can account for observed patterns of income inequality between countries to do this i decompose national income into three components one due to education levels one reflecting the return to education and a residual component i then examine in turn the contribution of each of them to changes in income dispersion among the developed countries convergence in education levels has resulted in a reduction in income dispersion however for the world as a whole incomes have diverged despite substantial convergence in education levels this is a result of increases in the return to education that favor the developed countries at the expense of the less developed countries

structural change in advanced nations a new set of stylised facts we provide new evidence on patterns of structural change in advanced economies reconsidering the stylised facts put forward by kaldor 1963 kuznets 1971 and maddison 1980 since 1980 the services sector has overwhelmingly predominated in the economic activity of the european union japan and the us but there is substantial heterogeneity among services personal finance and business services have low productivity growth and increasing shares in employment and gdp by contrast shares of distribution services are constant and productivity growth is rapid we find that the labour share in value added is declining while the use of ict capital and skilled labour is increasing in all sectors and regions

the welfare cost of capital income taxation in a growing economy the welfare cost of capital income taxation is analyzed in a general equilibrium framework where the private sector is represented by a competitive household endowed with perfect foresight and an infinite life the value of the welfare cost depends essentially on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in the production function numerical estimates are presented for different values of the parameters of the model the welfare gain obtained by the abolition of the capital income tax is smaller when the private sector is not endowed with perfect foresight it is reduced by about 40 percent when expectations are myopic the allocation efficiency cost of the corporate tax dwarfs the intertemporal welfare cost

optimal taxation of capital income in general equilibrium with infinite lives this paper analyzes the optimal tax on capital income in general equilibrium models of the second best agents have infinite lives and utility functions which are extensions from the koopmans form the population is heterogeneous the important property of the models is the equality between the social and the private discount rates in the long run i find that the optimal tax rate is zero in the long run for a special case of additively separable utility functions i then determine the tax rates along the dynamic path and conditions that are sufficient for the local stability of the steady state

the welfare cost of factor taxation in a perfect foresight model this paper examines the marginal efficiency cost of various factor taxes in a dynamic general equilibrium model the au thor solves for the excess burden of anticipated and unanticipated t emporary and permanent tax policies using a range of estimates for taste and technology parameters he finds excess burdens larger than those indicated by previous studies that use static models these exc ess burdens are sensitive to parameter values and timing however th e rankings of alternative tax policies turn out to be insensitive to structural parameter values copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

optimal redistributive capital taxation in a neoclassical growth model abstract this paper provides a counterexample to the simplest version of the redistribution models considered by judd 1985 in which the government chooses an optimal distortionary tax on capitalists to finance a lump sum payment to workers i show that the steady state optimal tax on capital income is generally non zero when the capitalists utility is logarithmic and the government faces a balanced budget constraint with log utility agents optimal decisions depend solely on the current rate of return not any future rates of return or tax rates this feature of the economy effectively deprives the government of a useful policy instrument because promises about future tax rates can no longer influence current allocations when combined with a lack of other suitable policy instruments such as government bonds the result is an inability to decentralize the allocations that are consistent with a zero limiting capital tax i show that the standard approach to solving the dynamic optimal tax problem yields the wrong answer in this knife edge case because it fails to properly enforce the constraints associated with the competitive equilibrium specifically the standard approach lets in an additional policy instrument through the back door

market innovation competition an evolutionary model of industrial dynamics abstract a model is presented of the behavior of a number of competing firms producing functionally similar products each firm searches for new routines and new combinations of the routines i e technical and organizational ideas and skills associated with a particular economic context decisions of a firm related to investment modernization of production price etc are based on the firm s evaluation of the behavior of other competing firms and the expected response of the market firms search for new combinations of routines in order to minimize the unit cost of production maximize the productivity of capital and maximize the competitiveness of their products in the market results of simulation of the model concerning investigation of price setting procedures and long and short term firms objectives are presented

the international ramifications of tax reforms supply side economics in a global economy this paper studies tax reforms in a dynamic model of a global economy calibrated to current u s and european tax policies world capital markets add consumption smoothing and income redistribution effects that alter closed economy predictions in the absence of taxes on foreign interest welfare gains of eliminating u s income taxes are enlarged by up to 34 percent at the expense of european losses caused by transitional declines in consumption and leisure and a permanent capital outflow in contrast if foreign interest is taxed the same tax reform reduces u s welfare 0 7 percent and increases european welfare 1 8 percent copyright 1998 by american economic association