when do losses loom larger than gains abstract in defining limits to loss aversion novemsky and kahneman 2005 offer important new data and a needed summary of appropriate ways to think about loss aversion in this comment to novemsky and kahneman s article the authors consider the new empirical results that involve probabilistic buying and selling suggesting caution in generalizing the results to nonprobabilistic commerce the authors expand novemsky and kahneman s summary by exploring two critical constructs that help define the boundaries of loss aversion emotional attachment and cognitive perspective emotional attachment alters loss aversion by moderating the degree to which parting with an item involves a loss whereas shifts in cognitive perspective explain why items typically viewed as a loss are given more or less weight the goal is to use these constructs to characterize more specifically contexts in which losses loom larger than gains and to suggest specific ways that research into loss aversion could evolve

the causes of preference reversal observed preference reversal cannot be adequately explained by violations of independence the reduction axiom or transitivity the primary cause of preference reversal is the failure of procedure invariance especially the overpricing of low probability high payoff bets this result violates regret theory and generalized nonindependent utility models preference reversal and a new reversal involving time preferences are explained by scale compatibility which implies that payoffs are weighted more heavily in pricing than in choice copyright 1990 by american economic association

two models of bid taker cheating in vickrey auctions vickrey second price sealed bid auctions have attractive theoretical properties but standard first price sealed bidding is far more common explanations of the rarity of vickrey auctions rely on concern about revelation of private information and on fear of cheating the authors present two models of bid taker cheating a static game theoretic model and a reputation based model of repeated auctions in the first an honest bid taker will not choose a vickrey auction in the second a trusted bid taker who cheats when it pays eventually destroys his or her reputation and the trust on which the use of vickrey auctions depends copyright 1995 by university of chicago press

an incentive aligned mechanism for conjoint analysis abstract this article specifies analyzes and validates a rigorous and practical truth telling mechanism game for conjoint applications the mechanism requires only one real product variation and has truth telling in conjoint as its bayesian nash equilibrium thus making it possible to incentive align participants in most conjoint applications using the ipod package as the context the author shows empirically that the mechanism substantially improves purchase prediction compared with a standard conjoint procedure

citizens of the green world cosmopolitan orientation and sustainability contemporary consumer markets are characterized by both a heightened need for sustainability and an increasingly cosmopolitan lifestyle this article bridges these two trends and studies two untapped questions 1 how do cosmopolitan consumers relate to sustainable behavior and 2 how should environmental messages be framed to successfully target cosmopolitan consumers four studies in three countries show that high cosmopolitan consumers demonstrate environmental concern and engage in sustainable behavior to successfully target this promising segment with sustainable products or messages to promote sustainable behavior marketers and public policymakers should highlight the benefit of these products behaviors for the global rather than the local environment however the findings also show that high cosmopolitan consumers can be successfully targeted to support local environmental initiatives when activating their local identification the article offers implications for businesses non government organizations and public policymakers in designing effective messages to promote sustainable behavior

statistical efficiency of double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation the statistical efficiency of conventional dichotomous choice contingent valuation surveys can be improved by asking each respondent a second dichotomous choice question which depends on the response to the first question if the first response is yes the second bid is some amount greater than the first bid while if the first response is no the second bid is some amount smaller this double bounded approach is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the conventional singlebounded approach using data from a survey of californians regarding their willingness to pay for wetlands in the san joaquin valley we show that in a finite sample the gain in efficiency can be very substantial

a critical appraisal of the effectiveness of uk perennial energy crops policy since 1990 abstract energy crops are cultivated primarily for bioenergy production but can also have wider benefits to agriculture and the environment policies put in place in the uk and europe have promoted bioenergy and the growth of energy crops despite the various policy support mechanisms the cultivation of perennial energy crops has proceeded at a low rate this study rigorously analyses some of the key uk bioenergy policies since 1990 to assess why perennial energy crops have not fulfilled their potential the uk energy crops market is scrutinised and shows the industry is still nascent compared to government aspirations case studies of both successful and unsuccessful projects are evaluated to reveal how effective different policies have been in establishing uk perennial energy crops this original review shows significantly that none of the projects initiatives or schemes described can be viewed as an absolute success the main obstacles that have hindered progress include the lack of long term supportive energy crops policy the failure of headline projects and organisations the lack of competitiveness of long term perennial crop options compared to annual crops bureaucracy of schemes over ambitious projects and large scale support schemes tending to favour imported biomass rather than support domestic supply 25 years of failed energy crops policy suggests there needs to be a long term strategy future support for the sector must join up policy between different government departments to recognise multi functional benefits of perennial energy crops support mechanisms could aim to provide a competitive advantage for local supply and use and improve management of cashflows during establishment the risk burden should be shared between suppliers and end users smaller scale projects using established technologies are required with energy crops introduced in a phased manner supply side measures need to be balanced with demand side incentives to link supply with end user markets

are preferences monotonic testing some predictions of regret theory in this paper the authors demonstrate that the assumption of regret aversion which has been invoked in regret theory to explain several well documented violations of expected utility theory also implies the existence of strict preferences between some stochastically equivalent actions and implies certain systematic violations of monotonicity the authors report an experimental test of these predictions they find that while choices between stochastically equivalent actions are entirely consistent with expected utility theory there is clear evidence of the monotonicity violations predicted by regret theory copyright 1992 by the london school of economics and political science

preference reversals and the independence axiom of all of the paradoxical patterns of behavior reported in laboratory experiments one of the most perplexing for decision theorists is the preference reversal phenomenon a subject in a preference reversal experiment is typically given a choice between a lottery with a high probability of winning a modest amount of money a p bet and a lottery with a low probability of winning a large amount of money a bet the lowest amount of money for which the subject would willingly sell either of these lotteries is also elicited the most common reversal is for a subject to choose the p bet over the bet but to put a higher selling price on the bet preference reversals were first reported by harold lindman 1971 and sarah lichtenstein and paul slovic 1971 in discussing the psychologists discovery of such reversals david grether and charles plott remark the inconsistency is deeper than mere lack of transitivity or even stochastic transitivity it suggests that no optimization principles of any sort lie behind even the simplest of human choices 1979 p 623 this paper offers a simple alternative explanation of documented preference reversals an explanation that does not require the abandonment of the transitivity assumption

estimating willingness to pay from survey data an alternative pre test market evaluation procedure closed ended contingent valuation surveys are used to assess demands in hypothetical markets and recently have been applied widely to the valuation of non market environmental resources this int

measuring heterogeneous reservation prices for product bundles this paper develops a model for capturing continuous heterogeneity in the joint distribution of reservation prices for products and bundles our model is derived from utility theory and captures both within and among subject variability furthermore it provides dollarmetric reservation prices and individual level estimates that allow the firm to target customers and develop customized and nonlinear pricing policies our experiments show that regardless of whether the products are durables or nondurables the model captures heterogeneity and predicts well models that assume homogeneity perform poorly especially in predicting choice of the bundle furthermore the methodology is robust even when respondents evaluate few profiles self stated reservation prices do not have any informational content beyond that contained in the basic model the direct elicitation method appears to understate overstate the variation in reservation prices across consumers for low priced high priced products and bundles hence this method yields biased demand estimates and leads to suboptimal product line pricing policy the optimization results show that the product line pricing policy depends on the degree of heterogeneity in the reservation prices of the individual products and the bundle a uniformly high price strategy for all products and bundles is optimal when heterogeneity is high otherwise a hybrid strategy is optimal

generous paupers and stingy princes power drives consumer spending on self versus others this research examines how consumers spending on themselves versus others can be affected by temporary shifts in their states of power five experiments found that individuals experiencing a state of power spent more money on themselves than on others whereas those experiencing a state of powerlessness spent more money on others than on themselves this effect was observed using a variety of power manipulations hierarchical roles print advertisements episodic recall and mental role playing across spending intentions and actual dollars spent and among college and national samples we propose that this effect occurs because power and powerlessness affect the psychological utility of self versus others and this in turn affects the monetary worth allocated to spending on self versus others the research makes novel contributions to appreciating how the spending on the self versus others varies as a function of psychological states and increases our understanding of the role of power in consumer behavior

optimal prices for alpine ski passes abstract the purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between price and demand and to determine the effect of variable pricing on ski resort revenues we use data from a survey of existing skiers at three ski resorts in the inland region of norway to estimate price response functions based on a number of characteristics including day of week and distance to the resort the various price response functions are subsequently used to calculate optimal prices for each subset of skiers according to their differing characteristics the results show that ski resorts have the potential to increase their total revenues substantially by adopting a more dynamic approach to pricing thus our results provide academic support for the findings of ski resorts that have implemented such pricing strategies

from the crowd to the market the role of reward based crowdfunding performance in attracting professional investors abstract we focus on new technology based entrepreneurial ventures engaging in reward based crowdfunding and examine the effect of their performance in such funding channel on the likelihood of securing subsequent funding from professional investors we also study how this effect is influenced by the presence of patents granted for the new product idea and the entrepreneur social capital results from a sample of technology projects launched on kickstarter demonstrate that pledging a higher amount of money in crowdfunding can ignite professional investors interest and thus help secure subsequent funding however this positive evidence is effective only when complemented by the presence of patents or a large network of social ties

intervention and sterilisation under floating exchange rates the uk 1973 1983 in this paper a small portfolio balance model in the spirit of obstfeld 1983 is estimated for the sterling pound us dollar exchange rate over the period 1973 quarter 2 to 1983 quarter 4 it is demonstrated inter alia that pure or sterilised foreign exchange market intervention can be effective even when agents form expectations rationally

willingness to pay for sustainability labelled chocolate an experimental auction approach this study evaluates young consumers attitudes to sustainable food and analyzes the determinants of their willingness to pay wtp for chocolate bars with different sustainability labels data were collected through experimental auctions in italy assessing respondents n 80 aged between 18 and 35 wtp for chocolate bars with three selected labels i e fair trade rainforest alliance and carbon footprint econometric outcomes reveal that several socio demographic factors exert a positive and statistically significant effect on wtp for all the selected chocolate bars namely age cohort older gender female and household income high respondents lifestyles and food consumption habits also had an effect on final bids this study offers valuable insights to policy makers and practitioners for efficiently targeting young consumers in campaigns to increase sustainability labelled food consumption

economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon a reexamination in a recent issue of this review david grether and charles plott 1979 hereinafter referred to as g p presented a series of experiments that show that individual decisions are made in a manner inconsistent with standard preference theory this inconsistency can be illustrated by the following example individuals under suitable laboratory conditions first have a choice between a lottery with a high probability of winning a small sum of money the p bet probability bet and a lottery with a high stake but low probability of winning the m bet money bet after indicating a preference for one of the lotteries in the pair the same subjects are then asked to place a monetary value on each of the individual lotteries grether and plott found that a large number of participants stated a preference for the p bet in the first round but placed a higher value on the other lottery the m bet in the second round this behavior a preference reversal is inconsistent with the traditional statements of preference theory

the value of ideal contingency markets in agriculture an incomplete markets equilibrium in which no contingency markets are available is compared to a complete markets equilibrium formed by introducing a futures market and a crop insurance market the two regimes are compared using comparative static and welfare analyses numerical examples highlight important characteristics of the model and illustrate how the effects of introducing contingency markets can be quantified the main conclusions are that contingency markets in agriculture increase economic efficiency but there is no guarantee that farmers and consumers both benefit it is found that futures and crop insurance markets may reduce farmer welfare when the demand for farm products is price inelastic

the effectiveness of alternative preference elicitation procedures in predicting choice in a large scale national study the authors evaluated the effectiveness of several preference elicitation techniques for predicting choices the criteria for accuracy included both individual hit

incentive aligned conjoint analysis abstract because most conjoint studies are conducted in hypothetical situations with no consumption consequences for the participants the extent to which the studies are able to uncover true consumer preference structures is questionable experimental economics literature with its emphasis on incentive alignment and hypothetical bias suggests that more realistic incentive aligned studies result in stronger out of sample predictive performance of actual purchase behaviors and provide better estimates of consumer preference structures than do hypothetical studies to test this hypothesis the authors design an experiment with conventional hypothetical conditions and parallel incentive aligned counterparts using chinese dinner specials as the context the authors conduct a field experiment in a chinese restaurant during dinnertime the results provide strong evidence in favor of incentive aligned choice conjoint analysis in that incentive aligned choice conjoint outperforms hypothetical choice conjo

consumption self control by rationing purchase quantities of virtue and vice consumers attempts to control their unwanted consumption impulses influence many everyday purchases with broad implications for marketers pricing policies addressing theoreticians and practitioners alike this paper uses multiple empirical methods to show that consumers voluntarily and strategically ration their purchase quantities of goods that are likely to be consumed on impulse and that therefore may pose self control problems for example many regular smokers buy their cigarettes by the pack although they could easily afford to buy 10 pack cartons these smokers knowingly forgo sizable per unit savings from quantity discounts which they could realize if they bought cartons by rationing their purchase quantities they also self impose additional transactions costs on marginal consumption which makes excessive smoking overly difficult and costly such strategic self imposition of constraints is intuitively appealing yet theoretically problematic the marketing literature lacks operationalizations and empirical tests of such consumption self control strategies and of their managerial implications this paper provides experimental evidence of the operation of consumer self control and empirically illustrates its direct implications for the pricing of consumer goods moreover the paper develops a conceptual framework for the design of empirical tests of such self imposed constraints on consumption in consumer goods markets within matched pairs of products we distinguish relative virtue and vice goods whose preference ordering changes with whet her consumers evaluate immediate or delayed consumption consequences for example ignoring long term health effects many smokers prefer regular relative vice to light relative virtue cigarettes because they prefer the taste of the former however ignoring these short term taste differences the same smokers prefer light to regular cigarettes when they consider the long term health effects of smoking these preference orders can lead to dynamically inconsistent consumption choices by consumers whose tradeoffs between the immediate and delayed consequences of consumption depend on the time lag between purchase and consumption this creates a potential self control problem because these consumers will be tempted to over consume the vices they have in stock at home purchase quantity rationing helps them solve the self control problem by limiting their stock and hence their consumption opportunities such rationing implies that per purchase occasion vice consumers will be less likely than virtue consumers to buy larger quantities in response to unit price reductions such as quantity discounts we first test this prediction in two laboratory experiments we then examine the external validity of the results at the retail level with a field survey of quantity discounts and with a scanner data analysis of chain wide store level demand across a variety of different pairs of matched vice regular and virtue reduced fat calorie or caffeine etc product categories the analyses of these experimental field and scanner data provide strong convergent evidence of a characteristic crossover in demand schedules for relative vices and virtues for categories as diverse as among others potato chips chocolate chip cookies cream cheese beer soft drinks ice cream and frozen yogurt chewing gum coffee and beef andturkey bologna vice consumers demand increases less in response to price reductions than virtue consumers demand although their preferences are not generally weaker for vices than for virtues constraints on vice purchases are self imposed and strategic rather than driven by simple preferences we suggest that rationing their vice inventories at the point of purchase allows consumers to limit subsequent consumption as a result of purchase quantity rationing however vice buyers forgo savings from price reductions through quantity discounts effectively paying price premiums for the opportunity to engage in self control thus purchase quantity rationing vice consumers are relatively price in sensitive from a managerial and public policy perspective our findings should offer marketing practitioners in many consumer goods industries new opportunities to increase profits through segmentation and price discrimination based on consumer self control they can charge premium prices for small sizes of vices relative to the corresponding quantity discounts for virtues virtue consumers on the other hand will buy larger amounts even when quantity discounts are relatively shallow a key conceptual contribution of this paper lies in showing how marketing researchers can investigate a whole class of strategic self constraining consumer behaviors empirically moreover this research is the first to extend previous theoretical work on impulse control by empirically demonstrating its broader implications for marketing decision making

reservation price as a range an incentive compatible measurement approach abstract drawing from the literature on buyers uncertainty in preference and product knowledge the authors suggest and empirically test the proposition that a consumer s reservation price for a product is more meaningfully and accurately represented as a range than as a single point given this conceptualization they propose an approach for incentive compatible elicitation of a consumer s reservation price range icerange that builds on becker degroot and marschak s 1964 point of purchase method two empirical applications of the approach provide an assessment of its practicality and its predictive performance relative to current methodologies for reservation price elicitation the results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms the benchmark approaches in terms of predictive validity and yields valuable incremental information about uncertainty in product valuation

how should consumers willingness to pay be measured an empirical comparison of state of the art approaches abstract this study compares the performance of four commonly used approaches to measure consumers willingness to pay with real purchase data real the open ended oe question format choice based conjoint cbc analysis becker degroot and marschak s bdm incentive compatible mechanism and incentive aligned choice based conjoint icbc analysis with this five in one approach the authors test the relative strengths of the four measurement methods using real as the benchmark on the basis of statistical criteria and decision relevant metrics the results indicate that the bdm and icbc approaches can pass statistical and decision oriented tests the authors find that respondents are more price sensitive in incentive aligned settings than in non incentive aligned settings and the real setting furthermore they find a large number of none choices under icbc than under hypothetical conjoint analysis this study uncovers an intriguing possibility even when the oe format and cbc analysis generate

estimating willingness to pay with exaggeration bias corrected contingent valuation method estimates of the prices customers are willing to pay for new products or services using responses from survey questionnaires are notoriously biased on the high side an approach to obtaining more realistic estimates is suggested here called the exaggeration bias corrected contingent valuation method ebc cvm the method is an alternative to conventional contingent valuation methods cvms that have been used in economics and to a lesser extent in marketing two experiments and one field study are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in each case the proposed method outperformed conventional cvms in comparison with real choices or more realistic price estimates

constructive consumer choice processes consumer decision making has been a focal interest in consumer research and consideration of current marketplace trends e g technological change an information explosion indicates that this topic will continue to be critically important we argue that consumer choice is inherently constructive due to limited processing capacity consumers often do not have well defined existing preferences but construct them using a variety of strategies contingent on task demands after describing constructive choice consumer decision tasks and decision strategies we provide an integrative framework for understanding constructive choice review evidence for constructive consumer choice in light of that framework and identify knowledge gaps that suggest opportunities for additional research

two new features in discrete choice experiments to improve willingness to pay estimation that result in sdr and sadr separated adaptive dual response discrete choice experiments such as choice based conjoint and dual response are popular preference elicitation methods yet they can suffer from context effects extreme response behavior and problems with estimating consumers willingness to pay accurately when the purchase probability is high this study proposes two new features to avoid these limits a strictly separating all forced and all free choice questions and b an adaptive mechanism to select fewer but more informative free choice questions the use of these two features invokes two new discrete choice experiment methods separated dual response sdr with just the first feature and separated adaptive dual response sadr with both features a conceptual comparison simulation study tests to address endogeneity concerns and three empirical studies demonstrate the appeal of these two new features relative to the benefits of existing discrete choice experiments especially when estimating willingness to pay data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2015 2367 this paper was accepted by pradeep chintagunta marketing

5 information impact and allocation rules in auctions with affiliated private values a laboratory study in affiliated private value auctions each bidder has perfect information regarding his her own value for the object at auction but higher values of the item for one bidder make higher values for other bidders more likely we report on a series of experiments examining three key implications of these auctions i in a first price auction public information about rivals values increases expected revenue ii an english auction increases expected revenue compared to a first price auction and iii a second price auction is isomorphic to an english auction in examining these issues we compare predictions of some ad hoc bidding models with nash equilibrium predictions in the first price auction experiments nash equilibrium bidding theory organizes the data better than either of two ad hoc bidding models public information about others valuations does increase average revenue but the increase in revenue is smaller and less reliable than predicted under risk neutral nash equilibrium bidding lower average revenue might be attributed to risk aversion while the high variability is attributed to a sizable frequency of individual bidding errors relative to the theory bidding theory precisely organizes english auction outcomes after a brief initial learning period the dominant strategy equilibrium does not organize second price auctions nearly as well as market prices persistently exceed predicted prices the difference between english and second price outcomes is attributed to effects of different information flows inherent in the structure of the two institutions on eliminating bidding errors revenue impacts of these two institutions relative to a first price auction are examined in light of observed bidding patterns

does willingness to pay increase with the number and strictness of sustainability labels labels signaling sustainable product attributes are gaining importance although uncertainty concerning the environmental micro and macroeconomic benefits of such labels persist one of the questions still incompletely answered is whether willingness to pay wtp varies with a gradually increasing number of labels on a food product in order to answer this question we conducted a laboratory experiment with 191 student respondents testing consumer valuations of different labeling strategies using the becker degroot marschak mechanism wtp for 15 food products was measured the products were endowed with up to six different sustainability labels such that each grocery item was available in eight product versions for perishable nonperishable and plant based products the results indicate that participants are prone to allocating wtp premiums to labeled products more than to unlabeled products for animal products however labels do not influence wtp significantly furthermore the premiums do not vary with an increasing number of labels irrespective of whether the labels signal substitute or complementary sustainability information the results are not entirely in line with normative notions of magnitude variation but rather with the behavioral economic concept of embedding effects

eliciting and utilizing willingness to pay evidence from field trials in northern ghana we utilize the becker degroot marschak 1964 mechanism to estimate the willingness to pay for clean drinking water technology in northern ghana the bdm mechanism has attractive properties for empirical research allowing us to directly estimate demand compute heterogeneous treatment effects and study the screening and causal effects of prices with minor modifications to a standard field experiment setting we demonstrate the implementation of bdm along these three dimensions compare it to the standard take it or leave it method for eliciting willingness to pay and discuss practical issues for implementing the mechanism in true field settings jel classifications c93 d12 d82 l11 l31

news and the 1920 s experience with floating exchange rates in this paper the news approach to modelling the exchange rate is implemented for the inter war experience with floating exchange rates the results are shown to be broadly supportive of similar tests conducted for the 1970 s experience with floating

impact of perennial energy crops income variability on the crop selection of risk averse farmers abstract the uk government policy is for the area of perennial energy crops in the uk to expand significantly farmers need to choose these crops in preference to conventional rotations for this to be achievable this paper looks at the potential level and variability of perennial energy crop incomes and the relation to incomes from conventional arable crops assuming energy crop prices are correlated to oil prices the results suggests that incomes from them are not well correlated to conventional arable crop incomes a farm scale mathematical programming model is then used to attempt to understand the affect on risk averse farmers crop selection the inclusion of risk reduces the energy crop price required for the selection of these crops however yields towards the highest of those predicted in the uk are still required to make them an optimal choice suggesting only a small area of energy crops within the uk would be expected to be chosen to be grown this must be regarded as a tentative conclusion primarily due to high sensitivity found to crop yields resulting in the proposal for further work to apply the model using spatially disaggregated data

experimental auction procedure impact on valuation of quality differentiated goods despite increased use of experimental auctions a myriad of different procedures are being employed without formal consideration of how the procedures might affect results this study investigates the effect of several procedural issues on valuation estimates from experimental auctions results indicate the second price auction generates higher valuations than english becker degroot marschak bdm and random nth price auctions especially in latter bidding rounds and that random nth price auction yields lower valuations than english and bdm auctions we find that endowing subjects with a good prior to eliciting bids can have an impact on valuations but the effect varies across auction mechanism

uncertainty risk aversion and wta vs wtp we examine a previously unstudied category of exchange items in which the true value is unknown to both the buyer and seller at the time of exchange but becomes known to both at a future time after the exchange real world examples of such exchange items as in our study include forward contracts and fixed fee turnkey contracts we demonstrate that the discrepancy between the seller s willingness to accept wta and buyer s willingness to pay wtp increases with 1 the level of uncertainty about the exchange item s value and 2 the exchange parties level of risk aversion in a series of studies we manipulate and measure the level of uncertainty of the exchange item measure the level of risk aversion of the exchange parties and study the respective effects on decreasing the wtp while increasing the wta

thin capital markets a study of the kuwaiti stock market a reply 1983 thin capital markets a study of the kuwaiti stock market a reply applied economics vol 15 no 1 pp 123 124

the singapore dollar tests of the efficient markets hypothesis and the role of news in this paper the efficient markets hypothesis emh is tested for the singapore dollar over the period from january 1978 to march 1983 the tests are conducted using the relationship between the spot foreign exchange rate and the corresponding lagged forward foreign exchange rate the tests consist of an unbiasedness test an error orthogonality test and a test of the impact of news in the singapore foreign exchange market the results indicate a certain degree of independence in the implementation of monetary policy for the singapore monetary authority

price as a stimulus to think the case for willful overpricing consumers aware of a new benefit will often experience uncertainty about its personal relevance or usage value this paper shows that the decision to deliberate further to resolve this uncertainty and reach a polarized judgment of personal relevance critically depends on the posted price in particular a price above the consumer s initial willingness to pay might be thought provoking and enhance the perception of relevance with a certain probability this behavioral mechanism is introduced formally and by way of an experiment with reference to the purchase of organic lettuce and fair trade coffee accounting for the effect of price as a stimulus to think a monopolistic firm should either over price transgressive pricing or under price regressive pricing in comparison to the consumer s willingness to pay under certain circumstances the firm should also empower consumers with means that reduce the effort of deliberation

farm level constraints on the domestic supply of perennial energy crops in the uk abstract there are a number of estimates of the land area that could potentially be dedicated to perennial energy crops such as short rotation coppice src willow and miscanthus in the uk but little is known about how farmers will respond to the opportunities presented by these relatively novel crops perennial energy crops face competition from other arguably more flexible uses of farmland and if not seen as attractive propositions to individual farmers they will not be grown farmers decisions are therefore a key constraint on potential supply this paper reviews the policy background and considers whether policy is based on any consideration of likely supply response before presenting outcomes of focus groups composed of farmers who already grow or are considering growing perennial energy crops there appear to be a number of barriers to adoption in addition to concerns over the security of contracts the current high wheat price increases the opportunity cost of committing land to perennial energy crops there are also worries about the impact of willow roots on field drains and the cost of returning the land to other uses this paper outlines a number of issues of importance to policy makers and suggests future research needs

too poor to be green consumers a field experiment on revealed preferences for firewood in rural guatemala the paper reports on a field experiment that investigates whether households in guatemala are willing to surrender a small material gain in order to buy legal rather than illegal firewood given the ineffectiveness of command and control policies to curb the problem of illegal logging in guatemala the experiment assesses the potential viability of market oriented solutions local consumers in developing countries are generally believed to be too poor to pay a premium for green ethical products therefore little information has been gathered on willingness to pay wtp for such products and its determinants in non affluent consumer markets while our experiment on firewood consumption in central guatemala only implies a weak and indirect test of wtp for green products the results indicate that it is premature if not unwarranted to assume that the poor are not ready to make pro ethical choices in the marketplace moreover we find that information on the legal procedures for firewood extraction significantly affects consumer choice between legal and illegal firewood

an incentive compatible conjoint ranking mechanism a simple method for making ranking based conjoint analysis incentive compatible is proposed the incentive compatible mechanism involves people purchasing a product profile with a probability proportional to its assigned rank in an empirical application related to consumer preferences for beef attributes we find that the forecasted market share for a new pasture raised steak obtained using incentive compatible rankings was significantly greater than that implied from traditional hypothetical conjoint rankings people s rankings of ground beef products were not affected by the mechanism or by information about pasture raised beef copyright 2008 oxford university press

econometric issues in macroeconomic models with generated regressors the paper critically reviews the literature on the econometric issues raised by the use of generated regressors gr in empirical models the economic rationale for the use of gr is considered with examples being drawn from several macroeconomic examples including new classical macroeconomic ncm models which postulate monetary neutrality various estimation methods are discussed for models which include surprise or unexpected terms and the strengths and weaknesses of each approach are investigated drawing upon the work of mcaleer and mckenzie 1991 situations where the typically inefficient two step estimation 2se method will be efficient are highlighted problems of model misspecification and measurement errors are also investigated an empirical section highlights some of the dangers of using uncorrected 2se estimation results through a careful consideration of many recent attempts to test the ncm monetary neutrality hypothesis copyright 1993 by blackwell publishers ltd

money income and prices in singapore reconsidered 1990 money income and prices in singapore reconsidered applied economics vol 22 no 5 pp 653 668

the motivating uncertainty effect uncertainty increases resource investment in the process of reward pursuit can a reward of an uncertain magnitude be more motivating than a reward of a certain magnitude this research documents the motivating uncertainty effect and specifies when this effect occurs people invest more effort time and money to qualify for an uncertain reward e g a 50 chance at 2 and a 50 chance at 1 than a certain reward of a higher expected value e g a 100 chance at 2 this effect arises only when people focus on the process of pursuing a reward not when they focus on the outcome the reward itself when the focus is on the process of reward pursuit uncertainty generates positive experience such as excitement and hence increases motivation four studies involving real rewards lend support to the motivating uncertainty effect this research carries theoretical implications for research on risk preference and motivation and practical implications for how to devise cost efficient consumer incentive systems

on consumer preferences and the willingness to pay for term life insurance abstract we run a choice based conjoint cbc analysis for term life insurance on a sample of 2017 german consumers using data from web based experiments individual level part worth profiles are estimated by means of a hierarchical bayes model drawing on the elicited preference structures we then compute relative attribute importances and different willingness to pay measures in addition we present comprehensive simulation results for a realistic competitive setting that allows us to assess product switching as well as market expansion effects on average brand critical illness cover and underwriting procedure turn out to be the most important nonprice product attributes hence if a policy comprises their favored specifications customers accept substantial markups in the monthly premium furthermore preferences vary considerably across the sample while some individuals are prepared to pay relatively high monthly premiums a large fraction exhibits no willingness to pay for term life insurance at all presumably due to the absence of a need for mortality risk coverage we also illustrate that utility driven product optimization is well suited to gain market shares avoid competitive price pressure and access additional profit potential finally based on estimated demand sensitivities and a set of cost assumptions it is shown that insurers require an in depth understanding of preferences to identify the profit maximizing price

estimating willingness to pay by risk adjustment mechanism measuring consumers willingness to pay wtp without considering the level of uncertainty in valuation and the consequent risk premiums will result in estimates that are biased toward lower values this research proposes a model and method for correctly assessing wtp in cases involving valuation uncertainty the new method called risk adjustment mechanism ram is presented theoretically and demonstrated empirically it is shown that the ram outperforms the traditional method for assessing wtp especially in a context of a nonmarket good such as a totally new product

internet based virtual stock markets for business forecasting the application of internet based virtual stock markets vsms is an additional approach that can be used to predict short and medium term market developments the basic concept involves bringing a group of participants together via the internet and allowing them to trade shares of virtual stocks these stocks represent a bet on the outcome of future market situations and their value depends on the realization of these market situations in this process a vsm elicits and aggregates the assessments of its participants concerning future market developments the aim of this article is to evaluate the potential use and the different design possibilities as well as the forecast accuracy and performance of vsms compared to expert predictions for their application to business forecasting after introducing the basic idea of using vsms for business forecasting we discuss the different design possibilities for such vsms in three real world applications we analyze the feasibility and forecast accuracy of vsms compare the performance of vsms to expert predictions and propose a new validity test for vsm forecasts finally we draw conclusions and provide suggestions for future research

estimating consumer willingness to pay for food quality with experimental auctions the case of yellow versus fortified maize meal in kenya biofortification of maize with provitamin a carotenoids is a new approach to the alleviation of vitamin a deficiencies in africa unfortunately these varieties are yellow or orange while consumers generally prefer white consumer willingness to pay for yellow and fortified maize was compared in experimental auctions in three regions in kenya the premium that consumers are willing pay for fortified maize 24 was higher than the discount they require to buy yellow maize 11 and in one zone consumers prefer yellow yellow color is therefore not an impossible obstacle for biofortified maize although it would clearly be easier to introduce this maize first in regions where yellow maize is currently grown

flexible exchange rates prices and the role of news lessons from the 1970s recent experience with flexible exchange rate systems has led to renewed interest in the operation of foreign exchange markets as reflected in many recent studies of the principal determinants of exchange rates the 1970s witnessed the dramatic alteration of the international monetary system from a regime of pegged exchange rates which prevailed for about a quarter of a century since the bretton woods conference into a regime of flexible though managed rates as a consequence of the emergence of the new legal and economic system traders national governments and international organisations were confronted with new economic problems choices and instruments during the 1970s ex change rates fluctuated widely and inflation rates accelerated the international monetary system had to accommodate extraordinarily large oil related shocks which affected trade flows in goods and assets huge oil payments had to be recycled uncertainties concerning future developments in international politics reached new heights and the prospects for the world economy got gloomier these developments placed unprecedented pressures on the markets for foreign exchange as well as on other asset markets they were associated with a large slide in the value of the us dollar and resulted in speeding up the creation of new institutions like the european monetary system which provided the formal framework for the management of exchange rates among members

measuring consumers willingness to pay at the point of purchase abstract economists psychologists and marketing researchers rely on measures of consumers willingness to pay wtp in estimating demand for private and public goods and in designing optimal price schedules existing market research techniques for measuring wtp differ in whether they provide an incentive to consumers to reveal their true wtp and in whether they simulate actual point of purchase contexts the authors present an empirical comparison of several procedures for eliciting wtp that are applicable directly at the point of purchase in particular the authors test the applicability of becker degroot and marschak s 1964 well known incentive compatible procedure for assessing the utility of lotteries to measuring consumers wtp in three studies the authors explore the reliability validity and feasibility of the procedure and show that it yields lower wtp estimates than do non incentive compatible methods such as open ended and double bounded contingent valuation they show experimentally t

modelling farmer uptake of perennial energy crops in the uk abstract the uk biomass strategy suggests that to reach the technical potential of perennial energy crops such as short rotation coppice src willow and miscanthus by 2020 requires 350 000 hectares of land this represents a more than 20 fold increase on the current 15 546 hectares previous research has identified several barriers to adoption including concerns over security of income from contracts in addition farmers perceive returns from these crops to be lower than for conventional crops this paper uses a farm level linear programming model to investigate theoretical uptake of energy crops at different gross margins under the assumption of a profit maximising decision maker and in the absence of known barriers to adoption the findings suggest that while src willow at current prices remains less competitive returns to miscanthus should have encouraged adoption on a wider scale than at present this highlights the importance of the barriers to adoption recently announced contracts for miscanthus appear to offer a significant premium to farmers in order to encourage them to grow the crops this raises the question of whether a more cost effective approach would be for government to provide guarantees addressing farmers concerns including security of income from the contracts such an approach should encourage adoption at lower gross margins

the influence of a renewable energy feed in tariff on the decision to produce biomass crops in ireland abstract a target of 30 per cent substitution of biomass for peat in the three peat fired power stations from 2015 has been set by the irish government however a knowledge gap exists on the extent to which irish farmers would actually choose to grow these crops an extension of the renewable energy feed in tariff refit scheme to include the co firing of biomass with peat in electricity generation would enable the power stations to enter into power purchase agreements ppas these offer a fixed price to farmers for biomass feedstock the decision to adopt biomass is represented as a constrained problem under certainty with the objective of profit maximisation the results showed that the price offered under a ppa has a large effect on the economic returns from biomass crops the price that the power stations previously estimated they would be able to pay at 46 and 48 per tonne for willow and miscanthus respectively was used as a starting point at this price the number of farmers who would choose to adopt biomass production is insufficient to achieve the national co firing target the target could be achieved at 70 and 65 per tonne for willow and miscanthus respectively

dyadic compromise effect existing research on the compromise effect has focused exclusively on the individual this paper investigates compromise effects in a setting that involves multiple individuals making a choice we study whether the dyadic compromise effect dce exists the association between dyadic and individual compromise effects and strategies to mitigate the dce we build a statistical model of dyadic choice that formally incorporates dce we conduct two studies to test our proposed models empirically in study 1 we begin with an investigation of the dce with student subjects in study 2 we test for the presence of dce among married couples when making retirement investment choices in both studies model free and model based evidence provides strong support for the presence of dce a model that incorporates dce provides a better fit than models that do not evidence in support of dce is shown to be robust to alternative compromise effect model specifications and utility aggregation methods we find that the indi

intra experimental income effects and risk aversion abstract harrison s 1986 modification of the bekker degroot and marshak 1964 mechanism for eliciting risk preferences is employed to test the hypotheses of expected utility theory with respect to changes in income increasing relative risk aversion and decreasing absolute risk aversion subjects in the laboratory are shown to exhibit such behavior

floating exchange rates expectations and new information abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between forward exchange rates future spot rates and new information a stochastic model of exchange rate determination is used to formally show how unanticipated changes in the exchange rate determinants or news affect the spot rate the empirical analysis indicates that new information plays an important role in explaining the market forecasting error or difference between the spot rate and the forward rate determined in the previous period

using laboratory experimental auctions in marketing research a case study of new packaging for fresh beef this paper illustrates the use of laboratory experimental auctions in a pretest market research program for new products we review the experimental auctions literature discuss the range of auction mechanisms available and present the advantages and disadvantages of using a particular mechanism for a laboratory pretest market we then present a step by step example of how a theoretically incentive compatible auction mechanism fifth price sealed bid was used in a laboratory pretest market for vacuum packaged beef based on the illustration we discuss the potential for using laboratory experimental auctions in pretest market research we present the limitations that may be encountered in such applications and outline research aimed at improving the behavioral properties of the technique

economic evaluation of short rotation coppice systems for energy from biomass a review abstract since economic profitability is the most important factor for the adoption of short rotation coppice src for energy from biomass our objective was to analyze and summarize published knowledge about the economic evaluation of src of 37 studies 43 reported economic viability of src in comparison to a reference system whereas 19 stated economic disadvantages of src and 38 reported mixed results depending on the underlying assumptions we found a wide variety of underlying assumptions underlying costs process chains and methods used to evaluate src systems of the 37 studies 8 used static approaches of capital budgeting 84 used dynamic approaches and 8 applied approaches in which uncertainties were taken into account due to the long term nature of investment in src and therewith the uncertain development of sensitive assumptions approaches which consider uncertainties were best suited for economic evaluation the profitability of src was found to be most sensitive to the price for biomass and biomass yield but site specific biomass data was lacking despite the wide variation within each cost unit costs for land rent harvesting chipping and establishment consistently made up the largest proportion of overall costs and should therefore be chosen carefully we close with suggestions for improving the economic evaluation of src and enhancing traceability and comparability of calculations

the influence of perceived uncertainty on entrepreneurial action in emerging renewable energy technology biomass gasification projects in the netherlands emerging renewable energy technologies cannot break through without the involvement of entrepreneurs who dare to take action amidst uncertainty the uncertainties that the entrepreneurs involved perceive will greatly affect their innovation decisions and can prevent them from engaging in innovation projects aimed at developing and implementing emerging renewable energy technologies this article analyzes how perceived uncertainties and motivation influence an entrepreneur s decision to act using empirical data on biomass gasification projects in the netherlands our empirical results show that technological political and resource uncertainty are the most dominant sources of perceived uncertainty influencing entrepreneurial decision making by performing a dynamic analysis we furthermore demonstrate that perceived uncertainties and motivation are not stable but evolve over time we identify critical factors in the project s internal and external environment which influence these changes in perceived uncertainties and motivation and describe how various interactions between the different variables in the conceptual model internal and external factors perceived uncertainty motivation and previous actions of the entrepreneurs positively or negatively influence the decision of entrepreneurs to continue entrepreneurial action we discuss how policymakers can use these insights for stimulating the development and diffusion of emerging renewable energy technologies

focusing on the forgone how value can appear so different to buyers and sellers we propose that buying and selling price estimates reflect a focus on what the consumer forgoes in the potential exchange and that this notion offers insight into the well known difference between those two types of value assessment buyers and sellers differ not simply in their valuation of the same item but also in how they assess the value buyers tend to focus on their sentiment toward what they forgo typically the expenditure and buying prices are thus heavily influenced by variables such as salient reference prices by the same token sellers tend to focus on their sentiment toward surrendering the item and selling prices are hence more heavily influenced by variables such as benefits of possessing the item four studies examining buying and selling price estimates of tickets for national collegiate athletic association basketball games offer consistent support for these ideas the studies show that naturally occurring differences among respondents in attitudes relating to the tickets that sellers forgo e g significance of the game corresponded more closely to variation in selling prices than in buying prices conversely measures relating to the expenditure e g respondents concern with money corresponded more closely to buying prices than to selling prices using controlled manipulations we then showed that changes in aspects relating to the game e g expected climate in the stadium affected selling prices more than buying prices but changes relating to the expenditure e g list price of the ticket influenced buying prices more than selling prices we also showed that drawing attention to the benefits of possessing a ticket before asking for the price estimates influenced buying prices more than selling prices supporting our claim that otherwise these benefits are naturally more salient to sellers than buyers similarly drawing attention to alternative uses of money before asking for price estimates influenced selling prices more than buying prices

willingness to pay estimation with choice based conjoint analysis addressing extreme response behavior with individually adapted designs the increasing consideration of behavioral aspects in operations management models has prompted greater use of choice based conjoint cbc studies in operations research such studies can elicit consumers willingness to pay wtp a core input for many optimization models however optimization models can yield valid results only if consumers wtp is estimated accurately a simulation study and two field studies show that extreme response behavior in cbc studies such that consumers always or never choose the no purchase option harms the validity of wtp estimates reporting the share of consumers who always and never select the no purchase option allows for detecting extreme response behavior this study suggests an individually adapted design that avoids extreme response behavior and thus significantly improves wtp estimation accuracy

personalized pricing and quality differentiation we develop an analytical framework to investigate the competitive implications of personalized pricing pp whereby firms charge different prices to different consumers based on their willingness to pay we embed pp in a model of vertical product differentiation and show how it affects firms choices over quality we show that firms optimal pricing strategies with pp may be nonmonotonic in consumer valuations when the pp firm has high quality both firms raise their qualities relative to the uniform pricing case conversely when the pp firm has low quality both firms lower their qualities although many firms are trying to implement such pricing policies we find that a higher quality firm can actually be worse off with pp while it is optimal for the firm adopting pp to increase product differentiation the non pp firm seeks to reduce differentiation by moving in closer in the quality space while pp results in a wider market coverage it also leads to aggravated price competition between firms because this entails a change in equilibrium qualities the nature of the cost function determines whether firms gain or lose by implementing such pp policies despite the threat of first degree price discrimination we find that pp with competing firms can lead to an overall increase in consumer welfare

the discriminating consumer product proliferation and willingness to pay for quality abstract the authors propose that a crowded product space motivates consumers to better discriminate between options of different quality specifically this article reports evidence from three controlled experiments and one natural experiment that people are prepared to pay more for high quality products and less for low quality products when they are considered in the context of a dense as opposed to a sparse set of alternatives to explain this effect the authors argue that consumers uncertain about the importance of quality learn from observing market outcomes product proliferation reveals that other consumers care to discriminate among similar alternatives and in turn this inference raises the importance of quality in decision making

goethe s second price auction in 1797 johann wolfgang von goethe sold a manuscript through a second price auction we investigate goethe s motivation in the context of the late eighteenth century s book market and relate it to modern auction theory

the willingness of farmers to engage with bioenergy and woody biomass production a regional case study from cumbria abstract in this paper we explore the willingness of cumbrian farmers to switch land use from food production to biomass production in a landscape where food production is both heavily subsidised and the area is a centre for tourism this is against a policy background of a switch of subsidies from food production to environmental benefits increased concerns about emissions from farming and an increased demand for renewable energy we identified an awareness of new markets for renewable energy alongside increasing volatility of other crops against a background of increasing demand for food from this our conclusions are that the main short term opportunities for increasing biomass production in this region are through intensifying management of existing woodlands in the medium term as the financial case for biomass crops becomes more certain we can envisage a tipping point which would favour a switch from marginal agricultural land to biomass

economic evaluation of miscanthus production a review this paper reviews the peer reviewed literature dealing with the economics of miscanthus cultivation to identify factors influencing the adoption of miscanthus and to reveal shortcomings in research in total 51 studies have been identified for this review the majority of these publications are recent i e the majority is published after 2009 and concern case studies in europe particularly the uk and ireland and north america this review reveals that the economic viability of miscanthus depends on largely uncertain assumptions especially concerning yields 10 48 t dry matter per ha and prices 48 134 t dry matter but also concerning the lifespan 10 20 years and different cost items a lack of established markets high establishment costs and uncertainties arising to a large extent from the long term commitment are identified as major barriers to miscanthus adoption in addition the level of support for miscanthus production e g via subsidies is identified as crucial for miscanthus profitability but is found to be highly heterogeneous across countries next to diversity in agronomic and economic assumptions also the assessment criteria and research techniques used to investigate the profitability of miscanthus differ widely while the net present value criterion was most frequently used we identify a lack of approaches that account for risks and uncertainties which seem to potentially play a critical role in the uptake of miscanthus by farmers

a general choice model for bundles with multiple category products application to market segmentation and optimal pricing for bundles abstract the attribute based approach to study customer choices cannot deal with bundles of heterogeneous components which are usually drawn from different product categories the authors develop the comparability based balance model which is a unified framework for modeling bundle choices the model can be employed for any bundle regardless of the heterogeneity of bundle components under a pure bundling strategy the conjoint model and balance model are special cases of the general model the authors use mixture distributions in a hierarchical bayesian framework to incorporate consumer heterogeneity in a more flexible manner than the extant approaches such as latent class and random coefficient models the empirical tests of the model show that most attribute effects are significant and consistent with the model s predictions the model is superior to those that do not consider the issues of comparability of attributes latent class structure and heterogeneity among respondents the authors show how

a market based approach to child nutrition mothers demand for quality certification of infant foods in bamako mali this paper analyses the potential impact of introducing quality certification to the market for infant foods in a very low income country where malnutrition is widespread using an experimental economics approach we find that a program to sample test and certify the nutrient density of products could promote a more competitive market for low cost fortified foods and be implemented on a self financing basis yielding net economic benefits on the order of us 1 million per year in the city of bamako we find that mothers demand for quality information rises with their education and income level but is higher than the estimated cost of certification even among the very poor and uneducated