the distribution of income in china preface notes on the contributors introduction k griffin z renwei part 1 the distribution of income household income and its distribution a r khan k griffin c riskin z renwei three features of the distribution of income during the transition to reform z renwei part 2 income and wealth in rural china the determinants of household income in rural china a r khan the distribution of wealth in rural china t mckinley income distribution and poverty in rural china c riskin part 3 employment and human capital workers in china s rural industries j knight s lina why urban wages differ in china j knight s lina the determinants of educational attainment j knight l shi annex the 1988 household sample survey m eichen z ming index

the use of quantile regressions in estimating gender wage differentials a case study of the philippines quantile regressions are used to analyse the size components and nature of the gender earnings differentials as well as the returns to education by gender in the philippines over the entire conditional distribution of earnings using data from the 1999 apis survey this approach allows more focused conclusions about the nature of gender earnings differentials incorporating the quantile regression approach to the oaxaca blinder decomposition allows the localization of gender discrimination to particular quantiles of the earnings distribution and permits more targeted policy intervention

monetary policy signaling and movements in the term structure of interest rates this paper examines how various monetary policy signals such as repo rate changes inflation reports speeches and minutes from monetary policy meetings affect the term structure of interest rates we find that unexpected movements in the short end of the yield curve are mainly driven by unexpected changes in the repo rate however published inflation reports and speeches also have some impact on short rates speeches are found to be a more important determinant for the longer end of the term structure our conclusion is that central bank communication is an essential part of the conduct of monetary policy

skills schooling and household income in ghana this article examines the impact of cognitive skills on the income of households in ghana it uses scores on mathematics and english tests to measure cognitive skills and estimates the returns to these skills based on farm profit off farm income and total income the article uses powell s censored least absolute deviations and symmetrically trimmed least squares estimators to estimate farm and off farm income in contrast to heckman s two step or the tobit estimator powell s estimators are consistent in the presence of heteroscedasticity and are robust to other violations of normality the results show that cognitive skills have a positive effect on total and off farm income but do not have a statistically significant effect on farm income

the distributional impact of public services when needs differ this is the accepted version of a work that was accepted for publication in journal of public economics changes resulting from the publishing process such as peer review editing corrections structural formatting and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication a definitive version was subsequently published in journal of public economics 94 9 10 549 562 october 2010

the grocery stores wage distribution a semi parametric analysis of the role of retailing and labor market institutions abstract how and why has the wage distribution in u s grocery stores changed between 1984 and 1994 unlike other industries in this time period the important change in the wage distribution is not risinginequality but that real wages fell across the entire wage distribution changes in labor market institutionsexplain more than half of the change in the wage distribution in grocery stores specifically the decline inthe real value of the minimum wage explains little of the decline in the mean real wage but much of thechange in the shape of the distribution between 1984 and 1994 and 95 percent of the decline at the lowest10th percentile the decline in union coverage in grocery stores and the narrowing of the union nonunionwage gap explain much of the decline above the 25th percentile a third institutional change the use ofpart time employees is not associated with changes in grocery industry wage outcomes one might think that the major changes in operations and technologies that occurred during thisperiod are at least contributing factors but we find quite the contrary if average store size weeklyoperating hours and the use of scanning technology had remained at their lower 1984 levels the real wagedecline would have been even greater than that actually seen and for the entire wage distribution changesin grocery retailing prevented an even greater decline in real wages again unlike many other industries skill biased technological change does not appear important for grocery industry wage outcomes the basis of our analysis is a statistical technique which combines nonparametric kernel densityestimation with a parametric re weighting applied to current population survey data supplemented withsecondary data sources on the grocery industry

counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression we propose a method to decompose the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time in several factors contributing to those changes the method is based on the estimation of marginal wage distributions consistent with a conditional distribution estimated by quantile regression as well as with any hypothesized distribution for the covariates comparing the marginal distributions implied by different distributions for the covariates one is then able to perform counterfactual exercises the proposed methodology enables the identification of the sources of the increased wage inequality observed in most countries specifically it decomposes the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time into several factors contributing to those changes namely by discriminating between changes in the characteristics of the working population and changes in the returns to these characteristics we apply this methodology to portuguese data for the period 1986 1995 and find that the observed increase in educational levels contributed decisively towards greater wage inequality copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

collective bargaining and regional wage differences in spain an empirical analysis this article analyses the importance of labour market institutions and in particular collective wage bargaining in shaping regional wage differences in the spanish labour market using microdata from the spanish structure of earnings survey our results reveal that there are significant inter regional wage differences for similarly skilled workers these differences are present throughout the whole wage structure and can be explained by both competitive and non competitive factors such as insufficient competition in product markets in this context industry level collective bargaining plays a major role in accounting for regional wage differences a role that in the spanish case is enhanced due to its unusual regional dimension

does public sector efficiency matter revisiting the relation between fiscal size and economic growth in a world sample this paper revisits the relationship between fiscal size and economic growth our work differs from the empirical growth literature because this relationship depends explicitly on the efficiency of the public sector we use a sample of 64 countries both developed and developing in four five year time periods between 1980 and 2000 building on the work of afonso et al public choice 123 321 347 2005 we construct a measure of public sector efficiency in each country and each time period by calculating an output to input ratio in addition we get an estimate of technical efficiency of public spending for 52 countries from 1995 to 2000 by employing a stochastic frontier analysis using these two measures we find evidence of a non monotonic relation between fiscal size and economic growth that depends critically on the size efficiency mix

the contributions of amartya sen to welfare economics agencies the ilo and the world bank at the same time he takes a broad view of the subject and has done much to enlarge the perspective of economists he is as much at home writing for the journal of philosophy as for the economic journal at harvard he was both professor of economics and professor of philosophy the unusually wide range of sen s research means that it is impossible to do justice to his contributions in the space available the nobel citation refers specifically to social choice welfare distributions and poverty but this is still a vast domain even leaving aside social choice and other areas covered by kenneth arrow in his article i have had to be highly selective section ii deals with welfare economics and sen s critique of welfarism section iii with the measurement of economic inequality and poverty section iv with sen s contributions to development economics and the implementation of his concept of capabilities this division into sections is inevitably somewhat artificial and in the final section x i seek to bring together the different fields of research and some others not covered in detail in an attempt to identify the key qualities of sen s contribution in choosing these areas of sen s work i am leaving out in addition to social choice and rationality much of his writing on social political and legal philosophy and i scarcely refer to his articles and books on the indian economy and society but then sen is prolific to a degree which is remarkable even for winners of the nobel memorial prize the biblio

a dynamic mincer equation with an application to portuguese data this article argues in favour of a dynamic specification of the mincer equation where the past observed earnings play the role of additional explanatory variable for current observed earnings a dynamic approach offers an explanation why the return to schooling in terms of observed earnings is not independent of labour market experience as suggested by some recent empirical evidence for the united states

trouble in the tails what we know about earnings nonresponse thirty years after lillard smith and welch earnings nonresponse in household surveys is widespread yet there is limited knowledge of how nonresponse biases earnings measures we examine the consequences of nonresponse on earnings gaps and

the impact of education in rural ghana examining household labor allocation and returns on and off the farm most of the human capital literature pertaining to developing countries focuses on the returns to education in either farm work or wage work few studies examine how education affects the allocation of time between these activities this paper estimates the returns to education in farm and off farm work and consequently the role of education in determining the allocation of labor the results from this study show that off farm work has a much higher return to education than does farm work and suggest that this divergence in returns affects the allocation of labor in farm households between farm and off farm work

gender time use and change the impact of the cut flower industry in ecuador this article uses survey data from ecuador to examine the effects of women s employment on the allocation of paid and unpaid labor within the household the reader compares a region with high demand for female labor with a similar region in which demand for female labor is low the comparison suggests that market labor opportunities for women have no effect on women s total time in labor but increase men s time in unpaid labor the increase in men s time in unpaid work reflects women s increased bargaining power in the home

changes in the u s wage structure 1963 1987 application of quantile regression the 1980 s witnessed rapid changes in the structure of wages in the united states in this study recently developed techniques for quantile regression are applied to every march current population survey since 1964 and changes in the return to schooling and experience at different points of the wage distribution are examined the quantile regression technique parsimoniously describes the entire conditional wage distribution this conditional distribution is used to examine changes in within group wage inequality as measured by the difference between conditional quantiles two linear models are considered a simple one group model and a 16 group model the results suggest that the returns to schooling and experience differ across quantiles of the wage distribution but their patterns of change are similar significant differences in wage inequality are also found across the various skill groups the paper also presents a new imputation method for cps data

a decomposition method on employment and wage discrimination and its application in urban china 2002 2013 abstract labor market discrimination is an important issue in developing countries where path dependent institutions have been dominant while effective institutional arrangements and policies have been hidden by local customs and culture however the existing applications of classical blinder oaxaca decomposition face criticism for their imprecise understanding of the factors affecting institutional discrimination in labor markets as well as for their lack of power in formulating well targeted anti discrimination policies following oaxaca 1973 we propose a new method to decompose the total discrimination index tdi to analyze employment and wage discrimination in the labor markets of developing countries the tdi is decomposed into the employment discrimination index edi and the wage discrimination index wdi then into the underpayment index to majorities upi and the overpayment index to minorities opi we apply this method to the institutional discrimination against rural migrants in china s urban areas using national representative data from 2002 to 2013 we have found that 1 the tdi increased quickly after china entered the wto then dropped after anti discrimination policies were implemented 2 the tdi is mainly determined by the upi while the tdi s fluctuation is mainly determined by the wdi our method provides insights into the changing composition of employment and wage discrimination and their respective labor market outcomes in developing countries as a result appropriate policy measures may be developed accordingly

racial discrimination and professional basketball salaries in the 1990s racial differences in professional basketball player salaries are examined to determine whether the 20 premium paid to whites in the mid 1980s has persisted into the 1990s ols and tobit regressions indicate no difference between white and black salaries controlling for player and team characteristics for the 1994 95 season however censored quantile regressions show substantial racial differences at certain points in the salary distribution whites earn less than blacks at the lower end of the distribution although the difference is not statistically significant and varies with minutes played in contrast whites receive a significant premium 18 at the upper end of the salary distribution these findings are consistent with a form of consumer discrimination in which sports fans prefer to see white star players all else equal

a theory of market transition from redistribution to markets in state socialism state socialist redistributive economies are characterized by the allocation and distribution of goods through central planning this paper develops a theory of market transition which argues that in reforming socialist economies the transition from redistributive to market coordination shifts sources of power and privilege to favor direct producers relative to redistributors the shit improves incentives for direct producers stimulates the growth of private markets and provides to entrepreneurs an alternative path for socioeconomic mobility a set of hypotheses test the market transition theory with householdand village level data

the economics of communist party membership the curious case of rising numbers and wage premium during china s transition abstract as the chinese communist party has loosened its grip in a more market oriented economy why have membership and the economic benefits of joining risen we use three national household surveys over 11 years to answer this question for wages in urban china individual demand for party membership is treated as an investment in political capital that brings monetary rewards in terms of a wage premium that has risen in recent years however this does not explain why the wage premium is higher for the personal characteristics that reduce the probability of membership rationing with a scarcity value for members with those characteristics provides an explanation

income inequality in the united states 1913 1998 this paper presents new homogeneous series on top shares of income and wages from 1913 to 1998 in the united states using individual tax returns data top income and wages shares display a u shaped pattern over the century our series suggest that the large shocks that capital owners experienced during the great depression and world war ii have had a permanent effect on top capital incomes we argue that steep progressive income and estate taxation may have prevented large fortunes from fully recovering from these shocks top wage shares were flat before world war ii dropped precipitously during the war and did not start to recover before the late 1960s but are now higher than before world war ii as a result the working rich have replaced the rentiers at the top of the income distribution

demographic change intergenerational linkages and public education in this brief paper i explore several issues related to u s demographic change and the political economy of public education i describe the existing empirical evidence that suggests that older and childless voters are less likely to support public school spending than younger voters with children i then note several unresolved issues about the degree to which rational self interest should lead older voters to vote for low levels of public school spending excerpt

balanced budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition this paper models balanced budget redistribution between socio economic groups as the outcome of electoral competition between two political parties equilibrium is unique in the present model and a sufficient condition for existence is given requiring that there be enough stochastic heterogeneity with respect to party preferences in the electorate the validity of hotelling s principle of minimum differentiation and of director s law are examined under alternative hypotheses concerning administrative costs of redistributions and voter s possibilities both of abstaining from voting and of becoming campaign activists for one of the parties the policy strategy of expected plurality maximization is contrasted with the strategy of maximizing the probability of gaining a plurality incomes are fixed and known so lump sum taxation is feasible however constraints on tax transfer differentiation between individuals are permitted in the analysis

education returns across quantiles of the wage function alternative explanations for returns to education by race in south america private wage returns to schooling in south africa in 1993 are twice as high for nonwhites as for whites and substantially higher at advanced levels of schooling for both races to explore how these returns might be expected to change as the proportion of africans with secondary and higher education increases quantile regressions for the wage function are estimated for african males and white males if the residuals based on a standard wage function specification are interpreted as omitted ability and it is assumed that ability increases decreases returns to schooling then we expect quantile returns to increase decrease at higher quantiles this is not observed for africans at the higher and secondary school level but is evident among whites at higher educational levels the opposite pattern of differential returns favoring the least able i e lowest deciles is reported for the lower tail of the educational distribution that is for africans at the level of primary school and for whites at secondary school authors

financial development and long run growth is the cross sectional evidence robust in a seminal paper levine loayza and beck llb 2000 provide cross sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long run growth using a sample of 71 countries we argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers

starting from a blank page semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility abstract central banks often draft press releases announcing monetary policy decisions starting from the previous release this makes it straightforward to see how the content has evolved but may make substantial updates harder to interpret as markets learn to expect only minor updates using variation in the drafting process at the bank of canada this paper finds that similar press releases reduce market volatility whereas volatility rises when substantial changes occur after sequences of similar statements a comparison over time and across central banks shows that market sensitivity to similarity adjusts to the drafting practice of central banks

food aid allocation policies coordination and responsiveness to recipient country needs we employ censored least absolute deviations and multivariate tobit estimators to investigate whether food aid flows from the main donor countries respond to recipient country needs as reflected in low food availability low income or both we also explore the hypothesis that donor countries specifically coordinate their food aid shipments to recipient countries our findings show that food aid in aggregate and from each donor is significantly targeted at poorer countries and is highly persistent over time food aid responses to food availability shortfalls natural disasters and violent conflicts are common but more modest and uneven across donors finally we find strong evidence of donor coordination in food aid allocation

central bank communication and monetary policy a survey of theory and evidence over the last two decades communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy these real world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication mostly empirical and almost all of it written in this decade we survey this ever growing literature the evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank s toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions and potentially to help achieve central banks macroeconomic objectives however the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy

communication by central bank committee members different strategies same effectiveness the paper assesses the communication strategies of the federal reserve the bank of england and the european central bank and their effectiveness we find that the effectiveness of communication is not independent from the decision making process the paper shows that the federal reserve has been pursuing a highly individualistic communication strategy amid a collegial approach to decision making while the bank of england is using a collegial communication strategy and highly individualistic decision making the european central bank ecb has chosen a collegial approach both in its communication and in its decision making assessing these strategies we find that predictability of policy decisions and the responsiveness of financial markets to communication are equally good for the federal reserve and the ecb this suggests that there may not be a single best approach to designing a central bank communication strategy

estimating the value of an in kind transfer the case of food stamps the value of one in kind transfer food stamps is estimated by evaluating the experience of an actual conversion from stamps to cash in puerto rico in 1982 the evidence indicates that the cashout of the stamps had no detectable influence on food expenditures the explanation partly lies in the distribution of expenditures for the stamps were inframarginal for most recipients however some evidence indicates that trafficking in stamps was widespread as well including indirect evidence from estimation of the piecewise linear constraint model copyright 1989 by the econometric society

kin groups and reciprocity a model of credit transactions in ghana this paper studies kinship band networks as capital market institutions membership in a community where individuals are dynastically linked has two effects on informal credit first the nonanonymity of the dynastic link allows to sanction the defaulters offspring and induce compliance even in short term interactions social enforcement second preferential agreements can arise in which kin members condition their behavior on the characteristics of a player s predecessor expecting others to do the same with their offspring reciprocity these effects are incorporated in an olg game with endogenous matching between lenders and borrowers and tested using household level data from ghana

the welfare effects of lotto evidence from the uk abstract this paper estimates the demand for lottery tickets using pooled cross section data that contain individual incomes and extensive information about characteristics one of the cross sections corresponded to a draw which was a double rollover the jackpot was enhanced by adding the two previous draws jackpots which had not been won together these datasets provide sufficient observations facing different prices to allow us to estimate the price elasticity as well as the income elasticity of demand we estimate tobit and other specifications and use the estimates to evaluate the welfare effects arising from the introduction of the lottery

fiscal and spending behavior of local governments identification of price effects when prices are not observed this paper analyzes local public fiscal andspending behavior in a setting where localgovernments represented by the dominantparty or coalition are treated as utilitymaximizing agents the econometricanalysis which is based on a modifiedversion of eles recognizes total spendingas well as total income as endogenousvariables identification of the priceeffects is achieved by utilizing data onenvironmental cost factors and localtastes the performance of the estimatedmodel is investigated by testing itsability to make out of sample predictionsof local government behavior

local natural resource curse abstract utilizing an output based efficiency measure we investigate whether higher public revenues harm efficiency in the production of local public goods much variation in revenues among norwegian local governments can be explained by revenues collected from hydropower production this revenue variation combined with good data availability can be used to address a main concern in the resource curse literature that public sector revenue and in particular the revenue from natural resources is endogenous we obtain an exogenous measure of local revenue by instrumenting the variation in hydropower revenue and thus total revenue by topology average precipitation and meters of river in steep terrain we find support for what we term the paradox of plenty hypothesis that higher local government revenue reduces the efficiency in production of public goods we do not find support for what we term the rentier state hypothesis that revenue derived from natural resources should harm efficiency more than revenue derived from other sources such as taxation

matching as a tool to decompose wage gaps abstract this paper presents a methodology that uses matching comparisons to explain gender wage differences the approach emphasizes gender differences in the supports of the distributions of observable characteristics and provides insights into the distribution of unexplained gender pay differences this nonparametric alternative to the blinder oaxaca bo decomposition does not require the estimation of earnings equations and divides the gap into four additive elements two of these are analogous to the elements of the bo decomposition but computed only over the common support of the distributions of characteristics while the other two account for differences in the supports

semiparametric censored regression models aregression model is censored when the recorded data on the dependent variable cuts off outside a certain range with multiple observations at the endpoints of that range when the data are censored variation in the observed dependent variable will understate the effect of the regressors on the true dependent variable as a result standard ordinary least squares regression using censored data will typically result in coefficient estimates that are biased toward zero traditional statistical analysis uses maximum likelihood or related procedures to deal with the problem of censored data however the validity of such methods requires correct specification of the error distribution which can be problematic in practice in the past two decades a number of semiparametric alternatives for dealing with censored data have been proposed in a semiparametric approach part of the functional form of the model usually the regression function is parametrically specified by the researcher based upon plausible assumptions while the rest of the model is not parameterized 1 while the theoretical literature has produced several semiparametric estimators for the censored data model published applications of these estimators to empirical problems in economics have lagged far behind this paper reviews the intuition and computation of a handful of semiparametric estimators proposed for the censored regression model the various estimators are used to examine changes in black white earnings inequality during the

where has all the education gone cross national data show no association between increases in human capital attributable to the rising educational attainment of the labor force and the rate of growth of output per worker this implies that the association of educational capital growth with conventional measures of total factor production is large strongly statistically significant and negative these are on average results derived from imposing a constant coefficient however the development impact of education varied widely across countries and has fallen short of expectations for three possible reasons first the institutional governance environment could have been sufficiently perverse that the accumulation of educational capital lowered economic growth second marginal returns to education could have fallen rapidly as the supply of educated labor expanded while demand remained stagnant third educational quality could have been so low that years of schooling created no human capital the extent and mix of these three phenomena vary from country to country in explaining the actual economic impact of education or the lack thereof

the great divide in scientific productivity why the average scientist does not exist we use a quantile regression approach to estimate the eects of age gender research funding teaching load and other observed characteristics of academic researchers on the full distribution of research performance both in its quantity publications and quality citations dimension exploiting the panel nature of our dataset we estimate a correlated random eects quantile regression model accounting for unobserved heterogeneity of researchers we employ recent advances in quantile regression that allow its application to count data estimation of the model for a panel of biomedical and exact scientists at the ku leuven in the period 1992 2001 shows strong support for our quantile regression approach revealing the dierential impact of almost all regressors along the distribution we also nd that variables like funding teaching load and cohort have a dierent impact on research quantity than on research quality jel classi cation c14 c23 l31 o31 o32

does school quality matter returns to education and the characteristics of public schools in the united states this paper estimates the effects of school quality measured by the pupil teacher ratio average term length and relative teacher pay on the rate of return to education for men born between 1920 and 1949 using earnings data from the 1980 census we find that men who were educated in states with higher quality schools have a higher return to additional years of schooling rates of return are also higher for individuals from states with better educated teachers and with a higher fraction of female teachers holding constant school quality measures however we find no evidence that parental income or education affects average state level rates of return

from income inequality to economic inequality i begin by recounting a true story a rather trivial and innocuous story as it happens but one with something of a lesson some years ago when i went to give a lecture at another campus i chose economic inequality as the title of my talk on arrival i found the campus covered with posters announcing that i was speaking on income inequality when i grumbled about it slightly i encountered gentle but genuine amazement that i wanted to fuss about such an insignificant difference indeed the identification of economic inequality with income inequality is fairly standard and the two are often seen as effectively synonymous in the economic literature if you tell someone that you are working on economic inequality it is quite commonly assumed that you are studying income distribution this implicit identification can be found in the philosophical literature as well for example in his interesting and important paper equality as a moral ideal harry frankfurt 1987 the distinguished philosopher provides a closely reasoned critique of what he calls economic egalitarianism defining it as the doctrine that there should be no inequalities in the distribution of money p 21 the distinction however is important many of the criticisms of economic egalitarianism as a value or a goal applies much more readily to the narrow concept of income inequality than it does to the broader notions of economic inequality for example giving a larger share of income to a person with more needs say due to a disability can be seen as militating against the principle of equalizing incomes but it does not go against the broader precepts of economic equality since the greater need for economic resources due to the disability must be taken into account in judging the requirements of economic equality well the subject of this paper is precisely the difference between economic inequality and income inequality it will be argued that we ought to pay much more attention than we conventionally do to economic inequality in an appropriately broad sense taking note of the fact that income inequality on which economic analysis of inequality so often concentrates gives

the impact of ecb monetary policy decisions and communication on the yield curve we use intraday changes in money market rates to construct indicators of news about monetary policy stemming separately from policy decisions and from official communication of the european central bank and study their impact on the yield curve we show that communication may lead to substantial revisions in expectations of monetary policy and at the same time exert a significant impact on interest rates at longer maturities thereby the maturity response pattern to communication is hump shaped whereas that to policy decisions is downward sloping jel e43 e58

school quality and returns to education of u s immigrants using the u s labor market as a common point of reference this article investigates the influence of source country school quality on the returns to education of immigrants based on 1980 and 1990 census data we first estimate country of origin specific returns to education results reveal that immigrants from japan and northern europe receive high returns and immigrants from central america receive low returns next we examine the relationship between school quality measures and these returns holding per capita gdp and other factors constant immigrants from countries with lower pupil teacher ratios and greater expenditures per pupil earn higher returns to education

far away from a skill biased change falling educational wage premia in italy in this article we apply quantile regressions to investigate the evolution of educational wage premia ewp in italy from 1993 to 2004 using the survey of the household income and wealth shiw bank of italy and different classifications for educational attainments we show that in the private sector ewp have generally decreased over time considering both continuous and categorical specifications for education at all quantiles of the wage distribution different patterns are observed in the public sector where ewp remain basically stable over time a number of robustness checks and various econometric specifications are also applied in order to address sample selection issues our findings provide additional evidence in favour of the thesis that the increasing patterns in inequality and ewp and the related interpretations concerning skill biased changes are much less pronounced in continental europe than in anglo saxon countries

the dynamics of changes in the female wage distribution in the usa a quantile regression approach this paper examines the female wage structure focusing on changes at different points in the wage distribution newly developed quantile regression methods are used in analysing data from the march current population survey the results show that while the most significant changes for the less skilled women took place at the bottom of the wage distribution for the more skilled groups changes occurred at both ends of the distribution consequently wage inequality decreased for the high school graduates and increased for the younger college graduates furthermore the more highly skilled women experienced the steepest gain in wages regardless of their position in the distribution 1998 john wiley sons ltd

allocation of human capital and innovation at the frontier firm level evidence on germany and the netherlands this paper examines how productivity eects of human capital and innovation vary at dierent points of the conditional productivity distribution our analysis draws upon two large unbalanced panels of 6 634 enterprises in germany and 14 586 enterprises in the netherlands over the period 2000 2008 considering 5 manufacturing and services industries that dier in the level of technological intensity industries in the netherlands are characterized by a larger average proportion of high skilled employees and indus tries in germany by a more unequal distribution of human capital intensity except for low technology manufacturing average innovation performance is higher in all industries in germany and the innova tion performance distributions are more dispersed in the netherlands in both countries we observe non linearities in the productivity eects of investing in product innovation in the majority of indus tries frontier rms enjoy the highest returns to product innovation whereas the most negative returns to process innovation are observed in the best performing enterprises of most industries in both countries we nd that the returns to human capital increase with proximity to the technological frontier in industries with a low level of technological intensity strikingly a negative complementarity eect between human capital and proximity to the technological frontier is observed in knowledge intensive services which is most pronounced for the netherlands suggestive evidence for the latter points to a winner takes all interpretation of this nding

estimation of semiparametric censored regression models an application to changes in black white earnings inequality during the 1960s building on the work of chay 1995 this study examines the impact of civil rights policies on black economic progress using individual level panel data many earnings records are censored and the degree of censoring changed during the period of interest consequently valid estimates of the program effects must account for this censoring maximum likelihood estimation can be used if the error terms of the model are identically normally distributed we investigate the value of using weaker assumptions on the error process to estimate the laws impact the analysis shows that there was significant black white earnings convergence in the south during the 1960s we also find that semiparametric estimation methods are informative in pinpointing which parts of the model are mis specified

child labor and the wealth paradox the role of altruistic parents abstract using data from pakistan we study the effect of family wealth on the utilization of child labor we find evidence of a positive relationship between land wealth and child labor only for children in the upper quantiles of the distribution we hypothesize that the so called wealth paradox in child labor is driven by parental preferences

strategies for sustainable agricultural development in the ethiopian highlands this paper investigates the impacts of population growth market access agricultural credit and technical assistance programs land policies livelihood strategies and other factors on changes in land management natural resource conditions and human welfare indicators since 1991 in the northern ethiopian highlands based on a survey of 198 villages we find that population growth has contributed significantly to land degradation poverty and food insecurity in this region in contrast better market access and some credit and technical assistance programs were associated with improvement or less decline in land quality wealth and food security suggesting the possibility of win win win development outcomes with appropriate interventions land redistribution was associated with adoption of inorganic fertilizer but also with declining use of fallow and declining soil fertility we find also that different land management practices are adopted where different livelihood strategies are pursued suggesting the importance of considering livelihood strategies in technical assistance programs development strategies should be tailored to the different comparative advantages of different locations no one size fits all strategy will work everywhere this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the impact of school quality on earnings and educational returns evidence from a low income country abstract the expansion of education has been widely adopted as a key element in the development strategies of low income countries while there is substantial evidence on the benefits of greater educational attainment for subsequent labor market earnings empirical evidence on the role played by school quality is scarce this paper combines household survey data with unique data on school quality from honduras to study the importance of school quality as a determinant of earnings our objective measures of school quality capture teacher training school infrastructure and school crowding the results display strong positive effects of school quality on earnings and on educational returns these effects persist across a variety of model specifications

electoral competition and special interest politics have fixed positions on some issues but vary their positions on others in order to attract votes and campaign contributions in this context we examine whether special interest groups are governed by an electoral motive or an influence in their campaign giving and how their contributions affect the equilibrium platforms we show that each party is induced to behave as if it were maximizing a weighted sum of the aggregate welfares of informed voters and members of special interest groups the party that is expected to win a majority of seats caters more to the special interests

oil palm adoption household welfare and nutrition among smallholder farmers in indonesia summary oil palm is one of the most rapidly expanding crops throughout the humid tropics in indonesia the expansion is largely driven by smallholder farmers while recent research has studied effects for the environment and climate change socioeconomic impacts in the small farm sector have hardly been analyzed here we address this research gap by analyzing effects of oil palm adoption on farm household living standards and nutrition in sumatra using survey data and econometric models we estimate average impacts impact pathways and impact heterogeneity results show that oil palm adoption improves household living standards and nutrition mean impacts on food and non food expenditures as well as on calorie consumption and dietary quality are all positive and significant a sizeable part of the total effects is attributable to oil palm adopters expanding their farm size rather than realizing higher profits per hectare oil palm has lower labor requirements than alternative crops especially rubber so that adopting farmers are able to manage larger land areas labor saved through switching from rubber to oil palm is also used to increase off farm incomes impact heterogeneity is analyzed with quantile regressions we find positive effects of oil palm adoption across the entire expenditure distribution however the absolute gains in total expenditures and non food expenditures are larger for the better off suggesting that oil palm may contribute to rising inequality

shocking language understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication we explore how the multi dimensional aspects of information released by the fomc has effects on both market and real economic variables using tools from computational linguistics we measure the information released by the fomc on the state of economic conditions as well as the guidance the fomc provides about future monetary policy decisions employing these measures within a favar framework we find that shocks to forward guidance are more important than the fomc communication of current economic conditions in terms of their effects on market and real variables nonetheless neither communication has particularly strong effects on real economic variables

educational mismatch and the earnings distribution thanks to the participants of the 2015 new directions in human capital theory workshop at the university of birmingham uk the 2016 midwestern economic society annual meetings the 2017 scottish economic society annual conference seminar participants at the university of aberdeen and to the editor and the two referees for helpful comments on the paper the usual disclaimer applies

changes in compulsory schooling education and the distribution of wages in europe using data from 12 european countries and the variation across countries and over time in the changes of minimum school leaving age we study the effects of the quantity of education on the distribution of earnings we find that compulsory school reforms significantly affect educational attainment especially among individuals belonging to the lowest quantiles of the distribution of ability there is also evidence that additional education reduces conditional wage inequality and that education and ability are substitutes in the earnings function

factors affecting the transmission of earnings across generations a quantile regression approach in this paper we estimate intergenerational earnings mobility models using quantile regressions quantile regression is a less restrictive estimation approach than more commonly used methods such as ordinary least squares and instrumental variables which only estimate the mean effects of intergenerational earnings correlation further we investigate the role of education as an intergenerational transmission mechanism for earnings we find that the intergenerational earnings correlation is greater at the bottom of the son s conditional earnings distribution than at the top and that controlling for son s education reduces the intergenerational earnings correlation we also find that education is relatively more valuable at the bottom of the conditional earnings distribution and thus tends to compress the distribution

understanding urban wage inequality in china 1988 2008 evidence from quantile analysis this paper examines change in wage gaps in urban china from 1988 to 2008 by estimating quantile regressions on chips data it applies the machado and mata 2005 decomposition finding sharp increases in inequality largely due to changes in the wage structure during 2002 08 changes in the returns to education and experience have been equalizing however changes in other categories of wage differential by sex occupation ownership industrial sector and province widened inequality the gender gap continued to rise as did the gap between white collar and blue collar workers and between manufacturing and other sectors

public sector efficiency the roles of political and budgetary institutions fiscal capacity and democratic participation the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether efficiency in public service provision is affected by political and budgetary institutions fiscal capacity and democratic participation in order to address this issue we take advantage of a new global efficiency measure for norwegian local governments we find that high fiscal capacity and a high degree of party fragmentation contribute to low efficiency in addition there is some evidence that democratic participation increases efficiency while a centralized top down budgetary procedure is associated with low efficiency

local governments in kind transfers and economic inequality abstract we examine how in kind transfers provided by local governments affect economic inequality the allocation of in kind transfers to households and the adjustment for differences in needs are derived from a model of local government spending behavior the model distinguishes between fixed and variable costs in production as well as mandatory programmatic spending components versus discretionary spending on different service sectors and target groups to estimate the model we combine norwegian data from municipal accounts and administrative registers for the period 1982 2013 we find that economic inequality is considerably lower when taking in kind transfers into account while the poor benefit from receiving a relatively large share of public services the equalizing effect of in kind transfers tends to be smaller than the equalizing contribution from public cash transfers when examining the time trends in inequality we find that local governments attenuated the growth in cash income inequality by re allocating in kind transfers to low income families this reduction in inequality is mostly due to changes in spending priorities across service sectors and target groups while the contribution from re allocation of resources across municipalities is much smaller

consumption and poverty how effective are in kind transfers the ability of in kind transfers to alleviate poverty depends on accurate targeting as well as recipients valuations of the benefits using data from the consumer expenditure surveys the efficiency of in kind transfers is examined in a microsimulation framework in which recipients are identified as those who have the lowest consumption in this framework in kind transfers of food capital services which includes housing and consumer services are an effective means of providing support to the poor even at high levels of subsidization the multiple good transfers that are considered are essentially equivalent to cash grants copyright 1996 by royal economic society

cigarette demand and tax policy for race groups in south africa this paper calculates cigarette demand for race groups in south africa elasticities are the most important information a tax policy analyst can have elasticities determine how the tax base will change with a change in the tax rate and thus how government revenues will respond to the tax elasticities also determine the excess burden that consumers will bear as a result of the tax as such own price crossprice and expenditure elasticities are calculated along with government revenue maximizing tax rates and total and excess burdens parametric and semiparametric estimation techniques are used and compared results show that a tax on cigarettes will discourage nonsmokers from starting to smoke and mainly raise revenue from current smokers furthermore it is found that consumption behaviours between groups are different implying different government revenue maximizing tax rates for each group affecting the distribution of income

distributional national accounts methods and estimates for the united states this article combines tax survey and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the united states since 1913 our distributional national accounts capture 100 of national income allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth we estimate the distribution of both pretax and posttax income making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality average pretax real national income per adult has increased 60 from 1980 to 2014 but we find that it has stagnated for the bottom 50 of the distribution at about 16 000 a year the pretax income of the middle class adults between the median and the 90th percentile has grown 40 since 1980 faster than what tax and survey data suggest due in particular to the rise of tax exempt fringe benefits income has boomed at the top the upsurge of top incomes was first a labor income phenomenon but has mostly been a capital income phenomenon since 2000 the government has offset only a small fraction of the increase in inequality the reduction of the gender gap in earnings has mitigated the increase in inequality among adults but the share of women falls steeply as one moves up the labor income distribution and is only 11 in the top 0 1 in 2014

the effect of food stamp cashout on food expenditures an assessment of the findings from four demonstrations using findings from four demonstrations we examine estimates of the effect on household food expenditures of converting food stamps into a cash transfer we provide arguments for why the estimate produced by one of the demonstrations should be regarded as an outlier the disparity in the difference in means estimates from the remaining three demonstrations is reduced when each is normalized by dividing by the average value of benefits in the respective demonstration site the normalized estimates imply a reduction in food expenditures of between 18 and 28 cents for each dollar of food stamps cashed out at the aggregate level these estimates imply that nationwide cashout would result in a reduction in household food spending of between 4 2 and 6 5 billion dollars whereas the associated reduction in the cost of administering the food stamp program would be about 0 3 billion dollars

on the distribution of exchange rate regime treatment effects on international trade abstract this paper provides evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects on trade for six different types of exchange rate regime transitions utilizing data on 218 643 country pair year observations all together previous research mainly focused on the currency union effect on trade and widely assumed that country pairs with identical observable characteristics receive the same effect we test the hypothesis of a homogeneous treatment effect empirically and find substantive statistical support for the presence of effect heterogeneity moreover we characterize the probability distribution of effect heterogeneity among observationally equivalent country pairs by way of a random coefficients model we estimate selected features of the empirical distributions of the treatment effects for each of the six different types of exchange rate regime transitions under two different sets of assumptions about the probability distribution of effect heterogeneity our findings suggest that the immediate effects on trade from switching to an exchange rate regime different from the one in the outset have wide waists and exhibit large positive extreme values we estimate the probability of two countries to experience an immediate positive effect on the growth of bilateral trade due to the adoption of any new exchange rate regime tighter or not to be approximately one half

the effects of taxes on purchases of sugar sweetened carbonated soft drinks a quantile regression approach the consumption of large quantities of sugar sweetened carbonated soft drinks sscsd may lead to obesity which is associated with health problems such as diabetes cardiac diseases and mental health problems the effects of increasing the value added tax vat on purchases of sscsd are estimated obesity is more likely among heavy drinkers than among light or moderate drinkers therefore the effects on high and low purchasing households are estimated by using quantile regressions qrs on norwegian household purchase data since many households did not purchase sscsd during each survey period censored as well as ordinary qrs are used our results suggest that a vat increase from 13 to 25 will have the highest percentage effect among low purchasing households but the absolute effect is highest among high purchasing households low purchasing households will reduce their purchases by about 5 l while the reduction is almost 20 l among high purchasing households however the effects among high purchasi

open mouth operations abstract this paper explains how central bank statements rather than open market operations can be used to implement monetary policy in the extreme policy instruments can be held constant and yet interest rates will evolve along the path desired by the central bank we show how the recent implementation of monetary policy in new zealand works in this way using announcement data from new zealand we find that open mouth operations lead to large changes in interest rates across all maturities and these changes cannot be explained by open market operations implications are drawn for monetary policy in other jurisdictions

estimation of complete demand systems from household budget data the linear and quadratic expenditure systems in this paper we explore two issues in empirical demand analysis the estimation of complete systems of demand equations using household budget data section i and the incorporation of demographic characteristics into such systems section ii although there are numerous studies which use time series data to estimate complete demand systems and many which estimate engel curves from household budget data there are virtually none which combine budget data from different periods to estimate complete systems since each budget study corresponds to a single price situation one might conjecture that estimation of complete systems would not be possible unless budget studies were available from a large number of periods this is incorrect in section i we argue that interesting complete demand systems can be estimated from a small number of budget studies despite the limited price variability represented in such data to demonstrate this we use budget study data for two periods to estimate a pair of related demand systems the familiar linear expenditure system les and a quadratic expenditure system qes a generalization of les in which the demand equations are quadratic in total expenditure the inclusion of demographic variables in the analysis of household consumption patterns is desirable because there are likely to be systematic differences in the consumption behavior of households with different demographic characteristics but the effects of demographic characteristics have seldom been studied within the framework of complete demand systems in section ii we propose translating as a general method for incorporating demographic variables into complete systems of demand equations this method has not previously been discussed as a general technique for bringing demographic variables into demand systems although it has been employed in several studies to improve the estimates of the les and the qes presented in section i we reestimate these two systems using translating to incorporate family size

canadian interest rate setting the information content of canadian and u s central bank communication we explain canadian target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables as well as bank of canada and federal reserve communication indicators econometrically we employ an ordered probit model of a taylor rule to explain and predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006 we find that communications especially speeches and testimony by canadian governing council members provide a significant and robust explanation of canadian target rate decisions however prior to the introduction of fixed announcement dates canadian communications contained more information on upcoming policy moves finally communications by the u s federal reserve bank which are much more frequent outperform our canadian communication indicators in explaining canadian interest rate decisions

differences in wage distributions between canada and the united states an application of a flexible estimator of distribution functions in the presence of covariates we construct a tractable flexible functional form estimator of cumulative distribution functions for non negative random variables which admits large numbers of covariates the estimator adopts and extends techniques from the spell duration literature for estimating hazard functions to distribution functions for wages earnings and income we apply these methods to investigate sources of wage inequality for full time male workers between canada and the united states finding that the canadian wage density has a thinner left tail because low educated workers have higher pay and a thinner right tail because of a lower proportion of highly educated workers unions appear to play a large role in these outcomes

comment on monetary policy communication policy slope and the stock market by andreas neuhierl and michael weber abstract this note discusses the article monetary policy communication policy slope and the stock market by andreas neuhierl and michael weber the authors document that the slope of the fed funds futures curve predicts stock returns one week ahead and is correlated with the tone of fed board member speeches over the period 1994 2007 we show that this return predictability is restricted to the subsample from 1999 to 2001 with no evidence of predictability outside of this period we further point out some issues with the proposed measure of monetary policy tone and show that the positive correlation between tone and the fed funds futures slope is driven by two speeches that when analyzed in detail do not appear particularly hawkish

deconstructing income and income inequality measures a crosswalk from market income to comprehensive income recent research on levels and trends in the united states in income inequality vary substantially in how they measure income we show the sensitivity of alternative income measures in capturing income trends using a unified data set focusing solely on market income or including realized taxable capital gains based on irs tax return data in more comprehensive household income measures will dramatically increase inequality growth compared to capital gains measures more in keeping with haig simons principles using a measure of yearly accrued capital gains dramatically reduces observed growth in income inequality across the distribution but also equalizes income growth since 1989