the determinants of female recruitment each year the net effect of transitions between jobs and between employment and non employment is that there has been a steady rise in the proportion of women and part timers in employment in britain the determinants of one particular transition namely recruitment are analysed using 1983 data in the light of existing theories about female employment the conclusions are that recruitment of women and part timers is promoted by the expansion of those occupations in which women are traditionally more concentrated by their low pay and conditions in relation to men and by the greater availability of married women for recruitment the buffer mechanism wherein firms are hypothesized to hire more female labour when unemployment is low and to hoard male labour in recessions finds no empirical support

endogenous trading constraints with incomplete asset markets abstract this paper endogenizes the borrowing constraints on capital in a production economy with incomplete markets we find that these limits get looser with income a property that is consistent with us data on credit limits the framework with endogenous limits is then used to study the effects of a revenue neutral tax reform that eliminates capital income taxes our results illustrate that it is very important to take into account the effects of tax policies on the limits throughout the transition these effects can be big enough to change the overall conclusion about the desirability of a tax reform

wealth distribution in life cycle economies abstract this paper compares the age wealth distribution produced in life cycle economies to the corresponding distribution in the us economy the idea is to calibrate the model economies to match features of the us earnings distribution and then examine the wealth distribution implications of the model economies the findings are that the calibrated model economies with earnings and lifetime uncertainty can replicate measures of both aggregate wealth and transfer wealth in the us furthermore the model economies produce the us wealth gini and a significant fraction of the wealth inequality within age groups however the model economies produce less than half the fraction of wealth held by the top 1 percent of us households

married womens tastes and the decision to participate in the labour market results from a fixed effects model in the paper we report estimates from two logit models of women s labour force participation a model with out fixed effects estimated from cross sectional data indicates a significant postive relation between work experience and particiption we ask whether the relation is due to a causal influence extered by the former variable on the latter or to a common underlying variable taste for market attachement to answer this question we present results from a fixed effects model estimated from panel data in this model the estimated coefficients of experience are insignificant suggestion that a taste for market attachement underlies both experience and participation is the presence of preschool children

child care and the labor supply of married women reduced form evidence this paper empirically analyzes family demands for market and nonmarket child care services and the impact of these demands on the work effort of married women the paperfirst develops a general model of child care and labor force participation the model predicts that higher wages increase the likelihood of labor force participation and that higher costs decrease the likelihood of child care utilization the paper then develops a threeequation reduced form econometric specification of the general model the equations in the specification are estimated simultaneously using 1985 data from the survey of income program participation the estimates reveal that the cost of market child care has a strong negative effect on the labor supply of married women

intertemporal market effect on gender earnings differentials lawyers in canada 1970 80 the conventional methodology for decomposition of cross sectional earnings differentials is extended to include a market effect on intertemporal changes in earnings and to analyse the changes in gender differentials over time the integrated cross sectional and intertemporal methodology is illustrated by a decomposition of the change in the earnings differential that occurred during the 1970s between male and female lawyers in canada an unprecedented rate of growth in the supply of lawyers during the 1970s in canada was associated with changes in the gender earnings differential in the legal profession this rapid supply growth had an almost negligible net impact on female earnings but a negative impact of 15 on the male earnings this explains the narrowing of the earnings differential by almost 30 over the decade although three fifths of the gender differential in 1970 and half of the differential in 1980 were attributable to the differences in the characteristics of the two groups these chang

the determinants of wage changes in indexed and nonindexed contracts a switching model wage changes in a sample 1979 86 of canadian wage contracts are analyzed the sample is split into cost of living allowance cola and non cola contracts econometric estimation corrects for sample selectivity bias in non cola contracts the unemployment rate and a proxy for expected inflation are significant expected industry price changes and productivity changes exert smaller but significant effects in cola contracts ex ante inflation coverage ranges between 60 and 100 of expected inflation catch up for previous uncompensated inflation the unemployment rate and expected inflation are also significant a common wage structure across cola and non cola contracts is rejected by the data

liquidity constrained markets versus debt constrained markets this paper compares two different models in a common environment the first model has liquidity constraints in that consumers save a single asset that they cannot sell short the second model has debt constraints in that consumers cannot borrow so much that they would want to default but is otherwise a standard complete markets model both models share the features that individuals are unable to completely insure against idiosyncratic shocks and that interest rates are lower than subjective discount rates in a stochastic environment the two models have quite different dynamic properties with the debt constrained model exhibiting simple stochastic steady states while the liquidity constrained model has greater persistence of shocks

concentration trends and profitability in us manufacturing a comment 1991 concentration trends and profitability in us manufacturing a comment applied economics vol 23 no 4 pp 717 720

the cyclical and secular behaviour of the labour input comparing efficiency units and hours worked summary a monthly labour input series designed to correct for the fact that all hours worked are not of the same quality is constructed and its properties compared with unadjusted hours worked this efficiency units series is constructed from bls data on hours worked and earnings by age and sex the cyclical fluctuations displayed by the efficiency units series are smaller on average than those displayed by hours worked although the difference is not large however the secular behaviour of the series is quite different hours worked per capita displays a significant positive trend while efficiency units per capita does not

endogenous debt constraints in a life cycle model with an application to social security this paper develops a simple life cycle model that embeds a theory of debt restrictions based on the existence of inalienable property rights a la kehoe and levine 1993 debt constrained asset markets review of economic studies 60 4 865 888 2001 liquidity constrained markets versus debt constrained markets econometrica 69 3 575 598 in our environment net debtors have the option of defaulting on unsecured debt at the cost of being subjected to wage garnishment and or having some or all of their future assets seized by creditors one advantage of our framework is that it encompasses two standard versions of the life cycle model one with perfect capital markets and one with a non negative net worth restriction we study the impact of a payroll financed social security system to illustrate the role of endogenous debt constraints and compare our results to a model with exogenous debt constraints whereas the aggregate effects are similar under both types of constraints the distributional consequences are found to be significantly different across debt regimes

consumer bankruptcy a fresh start consumer bankruptcy provides partial insurance against bad luck but by driving up interest rates makes life cycle smoothing more difficult we argue that to assess this trade off one needs a quantitative model of consumer bankruptcy with three key features life cycle component idiosyncratic earnings uncertainty and expense uncertainty exogenous negative shocks to household balance sheets we find that transitory and persistent earnings shocks have very different implications for evaluating bankruptcy rules more persistent shocks make the bankruptcy option more desirable larger transitory shocks have the opposite effect our findings suggest the current us bankruptcy system may be desirable for reasonable parameter values jel d14 d91 k35

work history patterns and the occupational attainment of women one of the main differences between the labour market behaviour of men and women lies in the discontinuity of labour force attachment exhibited by most women over their lifetime largely but not exclusively for the purpose of raising a family these interruptions to their labour market experience constitute an important influence on the labour market position of women and provide a potentially important factor in the explanation of their labour market disadvantate skills are obtained to a considerable extent through labour market experience and may be blunted in periods of absence from the labour force in addition absence from the labour force removes an individual labour market and may thereby reduce the probability of gaining extry to the better jobs on re entry the objectives of this paper are firstly to describe the various work history patterns exhibited by u k women and secondly to quantify the effect of these life cycle factors on the occupational attainment occupational progress and earnings of women the data source is the national training survey nts which provides a unique retrospective longitudinal data set on the work histories of over 50 000 individuals for details see manpower services commission 1976 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

social security reform with impure intergenerational altruism abstract this paper studies the long run aggregate and welfare effects of eliminating social security in a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium life cycle model where parents and their children are linked by voluntary and accidental bequests social security in this model with impure altruism has a smaller effect on capital accumulation than in a pure life cycle model a bigger effect than in a model with two sided altruism the welfare gain of eliminating social security system under impure altruism is smaller than that in a pure life cycle model and bigger than that in a model with two sided altruism

part time work and returning to work after the birth of the first child 1990 part time work and returning to work after the birth of the first child applied economics vol 22 no 9 pp 1137 1148

social security and individual welfare precautionary saving borrowing constraints and the payroll tax this paper examines the impact of social security on national saving and individual welfare in the presence of realistic capital market imperfections market failure in the private provision of annuities and restrictions on borrowing against anticipated future wages the introduction of social security increases lifetime welfare and reduces national saving if borrowing restrictions are absent however the increase in individual welfare is reduced and in some cases eliminated when borrowing constraints are taken into consideration the substantial difference suggests the importance of reexamining the proportional payroll tax finance of social security copyright 1987 by american economic association

the market evaluation of human capital the case of indentured servitude this paper examines the market for human capital created by the institution of indentured servitude in colonial america the indenture system allowed english emigrants to obtain passage to the colonies by selling claims on their future labor with the size of the debt approximately equal for all emigrants the length of the term for which a servant was bound is predicted to have varied inversely with expected productivity in the colonies analysis of two collections of contracts made in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries supports the prediction age skill and literacy were negatively related to length of indenture women received shorter terms than men at young ages while servants bound for the west indies and those bound in periods of high colonial demand for labor also received reductions

the influence of wages and house prices on british interregional migration decisions this paper considers the paradox of a consistent net outflow of people from areas of high job creation and wages over the past 20 years and suggests the explanation that different individuals have different motivations for moving the labour force survey indicates that workers moving for job reasons have migrated to areas of low unemployment and high nominal wages however the inflow into such areas has been more than compensated for by an outflow of people moving for non job reasons a logit analysis of destination choice indicates that job movers are attracted to areas with high wages but are not affected by high house prices in such areas in contrast active non job movers are deterred from areas of high house prices regional house price differences do not influence the destination choice of homemakers or the terminally sick but they do influence the destination choice of retirees all groups prefer to travel the least distance when moving

inflation and wage indexation in the postwar united states this paper examines the relationship between inflation and wage indexation in the postwar united states using data on the prevalence of cost of living adjustments in major collective bargaining agreements the author finds that increases in inflation precede increases in wage indexation but reductions in inflation do not precede reductions in wage indexation there is virtually no evidence that wage indexation affects inflation copyright 1995 by mit press

an empirical model of wage indexation provisions in union contracts this paper describes the responses of index linked wage rates to concurrent price increases for a sample of canadian union contracts and then analyzes theseresponses in terms of a simple model of indexation to the aggregate price level the model highlights the importance of aggregate price movements in conveying information about industry specific prices the empirical analysis confirms that industry specific correlations between input and output prices and the consumer price index are important determinants of the flexibility of wages to prices across indexed contracts

part time participation over the life cycle among married women who work in the market reported here are the estimates from two logit models of married women s labour force employment a pooled unconditional logit that does not control for fixed effects and a conditional logit model incorporating fixed effects both sets of results indicate the presence of occupational segregation between part time and full time employment since the amount of part time experience a woman has obtained increases the probability of part time employment these results are in agreement with those reported in previous studies that the presence of preschool children differentially encourages part time employment

how high is the private gain from wage indexation the effects of firm specific shocks on the gain from writing state contingent wage contracts are examine in an extension of the model in gottfries 1992 it is shown that the introduction of firm specific uncertainty increases the gain from indexation to prices only moderately moreover nominal wage contracts should be more prevalent when unemployment benefits are high or unemployment spells are short

cost of living adjustment clauses in union contracts a summary of results our paper provides an explanation why cost of living adjustment cola provisions and their characteristics vary widely across u s industries we develop models of optimal risk sharing between a firm and union to investigate the determinants of a number of contract characteristics these include the presence and degree of wage indexing the magnitude of deferred noncontingent wage increases contract duration and the trade off between temporary layoffs and wage indexing preliminary empirical tests of some of the implications of the model are described one key finding is that the level of unemployment insurance benefits appears to influence the level of layoffs and the extent of cola coverage simultaneously

consumption over the life cycle facts from consumer expenditure survey data this paper uses consumer expenditure survey data and a seminonparametric statistical model to estimate life cycle profiles of consumption controlling for demographics cohort and time effects we construct age profiles for total and nondurable consumption as well as expenditure patterns for consumer durables special emphasis is placed on the comparison of different approaches to control for changes in demo graphics over the life cycle we find significant humps over the life cycle for total nondurable and durable expenditures changes in household size account for roughly half of these humps bootstrap simulations suggest that our empirical estimates are tight in that standard errors are small

the household bankruptcy decision personal bankruptcy filings have risen from 0 3 percent of households per year in 1984 to around 1 35 percent in 1998 and 1999 transforming bankruptcy from a rare occurrence to a routine event lenders lost about 39 billion in 1998 due to personal bankruptcy filings but economists have little understanding of why households file for bankruptcy or why filings have increased so rapidly until very recently studying the household bankruptcy decision was very difficult because no household level data set existed that included information on bankruptcy filings in this paper we use new data from the panel study of income dynamics which includes information on bankruptcy filings to estimate a model of households bankruptcy decisions we find support for the strategic model of bankruptcy which predicts that households are more likely to file when their financial benefit from filing is higher our model predicts that an increase of 1 000 in households financial benefit from bankruptcy would result in a 7 percent increase in the number of bankruptcy filings our model also predicts that if the 1997 national bankruptcy review commission s proposed changes in bankruptcy exemption levels were implemented there would be a 16 percent increase in the number of bankruptcy filings each year but if the 100 000 cap on homestead exemptions recently passed by the u s senate were adopted our model predicts that there would be only a negligible effect on the number of filings we find little support for the nonstrategic model of bankruptcy which predicts that households file when adverse events occur which reduce their ability to repay finally controlling for state and time fixed effects our model shows that households are more likely to file for bankruptcy if they live in districts with higher aggregate filing rates

public versus private provision of liquidity is there a trade off abstract to what extent is public debt private liquidity much policy advice given in the aftermath of the financial crisis rests on the assumption that increasing public debt relaxes borrowing constraints of private households this is the case for ad hoc debt limits which are exogenous to public policy instead if debt limits are fully endogenous as e g in the case of the natural borrowing limit public debt has no impact we assume that borrowing limits arise because of limited contract enforceability and are therefore determined as equilibrium outcomes using an incomplete markets economy in which households are subject to uninsurable earnings shocks we show that public debt provides some liquidity but less so than it would if constraints were imposed ad hoc we show that generating borrowing constraints as an equilibrium outcome substantially alters the answers to other important questions such as for the welfare effects of government debt or its impact on real economic activity

part time versus full time work and child care costs evidence for married mothers this paper contributes to the analysis of female labour supply by accounting for both child care costs and differences in part time and full time work an ordered probit model is used to examine the impact of child care costs on the work status of married mothers data are drawn from the canadian national child care survey and the labour market activity survey the results from this paper show the degree to which child care subsidies may have differential impacts on part time and full time work decisions by mothers the child care cost elasticities for part time and full time employment are reported to be 0 21 and 0 71 respectively

insider bargaining power starting wages and involuntary unemployment recent analyses of wage bargaining has emphasized the distinction between insiders and outsiders yet one typically assumes that insiders and recently hired outsiders are paid the same wage we con

u s consumer bankruptcy choice the importance of general equilibrium effects abstract we study the implications of u s personal bankruptcy rules for resource allocation and welfare our analysis shows that general equilibrium considerations along with bankruptcy chapter choice and production matter crucially for the effects of policy reform contrary to previous work we find that completely eliminating bankruptcy provisions causes significant declines in output and welfare by reducing capital formation and labor input furthermore subjecting chapter 7 filers to means testing as suggested by recent legislative proposals would not improve upon current bankruptcy provisions and at best leave aggregate filings output and welfare unchanged however we do find that an alternative tightening of chapter 7 in the form of lower asset exemptions can increase economic efficiency

trade unions and seniority employment rules abstract some but not all trade union and insider outsider models assume that a seniority employment rule is used we investigate when firm and union members gain from such a rule and the consequences of their adopting one generally providing a seniority wage scale is also used they gain if union membership is not too large relative to demand and union bargaining power not too great moreover when outsiders are hired under a seniority employment rule employment is at the competitive level these results might explain why bargaining over employment is relatively uncommon and typically occurs only in industries with declining employment

efficient union labour contracts under seniority employment rules abstract a firm and worker sign a price contigent wage employment contract under lifo ly off rules a worker may prefer a contract which lays him off at low prices to one under which he is guaranteed employment at all prices

insiders outsiders and nominal wage contracts while the consequences of nominal wage contracts have been rather thoroughly analyzed there is no generally accepted theory of why such contracts prevail in this paper i argue that the distinction between insiders and outsiders is important for understanding nominal wage contracts since most employment fluctuations take the form of fluctuations in hiring insiders are normally not affected by them since prices are primarily determined by costs demand shocks have small effects on real wages thus insiders have little incentive to change to more complicated contracts with rigid nominal wages nominal demand shocks have large effects on the employment opportunities of outsiders but outsiders have little influence on labor contracts

downward occupational mobility and part time women workers 1988 downward occupational mobility and part time women workers applied economics vol 20 no 4 pp 485 495

debt constrained asset markets we develop a theory of general equilibrium with endogenous debt limits in the form of individual rationality constraints similar to those in the dynamic consistency literature if an agent defaults on a contract he can be excluded from future contingent claims markets trading and can have his assets seized he cannot be excluded from spot markets trading however and he has some private endowments that cannot be seized all information is publicly held and common knowledge and there is a complete set of contingent claims markets since there is complete information an agent cannot enter into a contract in which he would have an incentive to default in some state in general there is only partial insurance variations in consumption may be imperfectly correlated across agents interest rates may be lower than they would be without constraints and equilibria may be pareto ranked

welfare implications of endogenous credit limits with bankruptcy this paper studies the aggregate welfare consequences of changes in the prescribed penalty for personal bankruptcy and in social insurance policies when borrowing limits may respond to these changes it uses a dynamic general equilibrium model of an exchange economy with incomplete markets and a continuum of agents the borrowing constraint and the risk of default are endogenous and the default penalty restricts an individual s access to the markets for a fixed period of time the effect on the stationary equilibrium of an exogenous reduction of 1 and 2 years in this exclusion period is explored quantitatively for comparison purposes the same experiment is carried out under the assumption made in related studies that the borrowing limit is fixed a small welfare loss follows in either case in contrast in a small open economy welfare may increase substantially but only if the borrowing constraint is endogenous similar results follow from an exogenous change in social policy that reduces individual income variability