women as policy makers evidence from a randomized policy experiment in india this paper uses political reservations for women in india to study the impact of women s leadership on policy decisions since the mid 1990 s one third of village council head positions in india have been randomly reserved for a woman in these councils only women could be elected to the position of head village councils are responsible for the provision of many local public goods in rural areas using a dataset we collected on 265 village councils in west bengal and rajasthan we compare the type of public goods provided in reserved and unreserved village councils we show that the reservation of a council seat affects the types of public goods provided specifically leaders invest more in infrastructure that is directly relevant to the needs of their own genders

do elites benefit from democracy and foreign aid in developing countries abstract a popular argument for the absence of any beneficial effects of foreign aid is that it is skimmed by political elites in recipient countries however studies also suggest that aid may be more effective in relatively democratic developing countries by exploring data on income quintiles derived from the world income inequality database for 88 developing countries a set of results indicate that foreign aid and democracy in conjunction are associated with a higher share of income held by the upper quintile it thus appears that foreign aid contrary to popular beliefs leads to a more skewed income distribution in democratic developing countries while the effects are negligible in autocratic countries the paper closes with a discussion of potential mechanisms generating this perverse effect

modeling charitable giving using a box cox standard tobit model there is a large literature investigating the determinants of charitable giving in particular price and income elasticities we find that many of the most often reported results from this literature rely on a model specification that is inappropriate when applied to recent federal tax file data we develop a standard tobit model with a box cox transformation parameter that nests a number of other specifications the box cox model yields estimates of price elasticities and expected charitable contributions that differ from those obtained using the typical specification additionally we find that the use of sample weights provides potentially important policy insights copyright 1991 by mit press

a simple model of voice we think of voice as a means of information aggregation within groups operating in a variety of settings we explore how the characteristics of groups and their leaders influence voice in relatively homogeneous groups members farthest away from the leader have the best incentives to provide information and their voice tends to moderate policy decisions in large heterogeneous groups where leaders cannot identify individual members the possibilities for informational exchange are severely limited and any communication that exists pushes policies farther to the extreme

does conditionality work a test for an innovative us aid scheme performance based aid has been proposed as an alternative to the failed traditional approach whereby donors make aid conditional on the reform promises of recipient countries however hardly any empirical evidence exists on whether ex post rewards are effective in inducing reforms we attempt to fill this gap by investigating whether the millennium challenge corporation mcc was successful in promoting better control of corruption we employ a difference in difference in differences ddd approach considering different ways of defining the treatment group as well as different time periods during which incentive effects could have materialized we find evidence of strong anticipation effects immediately after the announcement of the mcc while increasing uncertainty about the timing and amount of mcc aid appears to have weakened the incentive to fight corruption over time

an economic model of representative democracy this paper develops an approach to the study of democratic policy making where politicians are selected by the people from those citizens who present themselves as candidates for public office the approach has a number of attractive features first it is a conceptualization of a pure form of representative democracy in which government is by as well as of the people second the model is analytically tractable being able to handle multidimensional issue and policy spaces very naturally third it provides a vehicle for answering normative questions about the performance of representative democracy

capture and governance at local and national levels 135 despite the importance of this issue not much systematic research appears to have been devoted to assessing the relative susceptibility of national and local governments to interestgroup capture here we describe a model of two party electoral competition with probabilistic voting behavior and lobbying by specialinterest groups based on david baron 1994 and gene grossman and elhanan helpman 1996 that helps identify determinants of relative capture at different levels of government these include relative levels of voter awareness and interest group cohesiveness electoral uncertainty electoral competition heterogeneity of districts with respect to inequality and the electoral system while some of these uphold the traditional madisonian presumption others are likely to create a tendency for lower capture at the local level so the net effect is theoretically ambiguous this suggests that the extent of relative capture may be context specific and needs to be assessed empirically

reinventing foreign aid for inclusive and sustainable development kuznets piketty and the great policy reversal this survey essay reviews over 200 papers in arguing that in order to achieve sustainable and inclusive development foreign aid should not orient developing countries towards industrialisation in the perspective of kuznets but in the view of piketty abandoning the former s view that inequality will fall with progress in industrialisation and placing more emphasis on inequality in foreign aid policy will lead to more sustainable development outcomes inter alia mitigate short term poverty address concerns of burgeoning population growth train recipient governments on inclusive development fight corruption and mismanagement and avoid the shortfalls of celebrated kuznets conjectures we discuss how the essay addresses post 2015 development challenges and provide foreign aid policy instruments with which discussed objectives can be achieved in summary the essay provides useful policy measures to avoid past pitfalls output may be growing and yet the mass of the people may be becoming poorer lewis 1955 lewis led all developing countries to water proverbially speaking some african countries have so far chosen not to drink amavilah 2014 piketty 2014 has led all developing countries to the stream again and a challenging policy syndrome of our time is how foreign aid can help them to drink

gift taxes and lifetime transfers time series evidence the tax treatment of lifetime transfers was altered on a number of occasions since the enactment of gift tax six decades ago trends in gifts by the wealthy show a dramatic response to these changes in this paper i examine this trend and gauge its response to taxes transitory and permanent over a period of 65 years results suggest that gifts are highly elastic with respect to taxes particularly in the short run tax minimization seems to be an important consideration in the timing of intergenerational transfers published by elsevier b v jel classification d19 h31

did women s suffrage change the size and scope of government this paper examines the growth of government during this century as a result of giving women the right to vote using cross sectional time series data for 1870 1940 we examine state government expenditures and revenue as well as voting by u s house and senate state delegations and the passage of a wide range of different state laws suffrage coincided with immediate increases in state government expenditures and revenue and more liberal voting patterns for federal representatives and these effects continued growing over time as more women took advantage of the franchise contrary to many recent suggestions the gender gap is not something that has arisen since the 1970s and it helps explain why american government started growing when it did

a panel data analysis of the fungibility of foreign aid the donor community has been increasingly concerned that development assistance intended for crucial social and economic sectors might be used directly or indirectly to fund unproductive military and other expenditures the link between foreign aid and public spending is not straightforward because some aid may be fungible this article empirically examines the impact of foreign aid on the recipient s public expenditures using cross country samples of annual observations for 1971 90 for the base sample of 14 developing countries it finds that aid is not fungible at the aggregate level and there is no associated tax relief increasing the number of countries however makes aid fungible moreover results based on the main sample indicate that aid is fungible in three out of five sectors examined developing country governments receiving earmarked concessionary loans for agriculture education and energy reduce their own resources going to these sectors and use them elsewhere only loans to the transport and communication sector are fully spent on the purposes intended by donors because most aid appears to be fungible the rate of return on a specific donor funded project tells little about the impact of that assistance a better approach may be to tie foreign aid to an overall public expenditure program that provides adequate resources to crucial sectors

foreign aid and market liberalizing reform market oriented economic policies reflected in limited economic activity by government protection of private property rights sound monetary policy outward orientation regarding trade and efficient tax and regulatory policy have been strongly linked to faster rates of economic growth foreign aid is often provided in the belief that it encourages liberalizing reforms in these areas this paper analyzes the impact of aid on market liberalizing policy reform correcting for the possible endogeneity of aid results indicate that higher aid slowed reform over the 1980 2000 period as measured by a broad index of policies disaggregating policy into five areas aid is significantly linked to slower reform in some policy areas but not in others disaggregating by decade aid s adverse impact on policy reform is much more pronounced for the 1980s than for the 1990s

aid and donor trust in recipient country systems abstract the 2005 paris declaration on aid effectiveness sets targets for increased use by donors of recipient country systems for managing aid the target is premised on a view that country systems are strengthened when donors trust recipients to manage aid funds but undermined when donors manage aid through their own separate parallel systems this study provides an analytical framework for understanding donors decisions to trust or bypass country systems empirical tests are conducted using data from three oecd dac surveys designed to monitor progress toward paris declaration goals tests show that use of recipient country systems is positively related to 1 the donor s reputational stake in the country s development as proxied by the donor s share of aid provided to the recipient 2 the trustworthiness or quality of those systems as measured by cross country corruption indicators and 3 donors risk tolerance as proxied by public support for aid provision in donor countries findings are robust to corrections for potential sample selection omitted variables or endogeneity bias

cultivating disaster donors using data analytics nonprofit organizations use direct mail marketing to cultivate one time donors and convert them into recurring contributors cultivated donors generate much more revenue than new donors but also lapse with time making it important to steadily draw in new cultivations the direct mail budget is limited but better designed mailings can improve success rates without increasing costs we propose an empirical model to analyze the effectiveness of several design approaches used in practice based on a massive data set covering 8 6 million direct mail communications with donors to the american red cross during 2009 2011 we find evidence that mailed appeals are more effective when they emphasize disaster preparedness and training efforts over post disaster cleanup including small cards that affirm donors identity as red cross supporters is an effective strategy whereas including gift items such as address labels is not finally very recent acquisitions are more likely to respond to appeals that ask them t

credibility and policy convergence in a two party system with rational voters the traditional approach to modeling political parties behavior based upon the contribution of anthony downs 1957 assumes that the parties unique objective is to win elections thus they maximize their popularity the crucial implication of this assumption for a two party system is that if the two parties have the same information about voters preferences full convergence of policies results from electoral competition this is the crucial implication of the median voter theorem more generally it may be argued that different parties are motivated differently because they represent different constituencies parties may not care only about winning elections per se but also about the quality of the policies resulting from an election in this case the candidates of the two parties view winning an election not only as a goal per se but also as a means of implementing a better policy for their respective constituencies this paper shows that electoral competitions imply dynamic inconsistency if the voters are modeled as rational and forwardlooking agents and parties do not care exclusively about being elected but also about which policy to implement once elected the dynamic inconsistency arises as follows the parties have an incentive to announce convergent platforms to increase their chances of election however if the elected party is not committed to its electoral platform it has an incentive to follow its most preferred policy rather than the policy announced in its platform if voters are rational they account for this incentive thus in general in a one shot electoral game the only timeconsistent equilibrium is one in which no convergence is possible the two parties follow their most preferred policies and the voters rationally expect this outcome full convergence of parties platforms results only as a limiting case when the parties are completely indifferent with respect to the quality of the policies resulting from the election thus these results differ from the existing literature on ideologically motivated politicians for instance donald wittman 1977 1983 randall calvert 1985 which implicitly assumes the possibility of binding commitments to electoral platforms complete or partial policy convergence can be the outcome of political competition if the interaction between the parties and the voters is modeled as an infinitely repeated game in fact if the candidates have concave objective functions the welfare maximizing policy rule implies a complete convergence of parties policies however this cooperative and agreed upon policy may or may not be sustainable as a subgame perfect equilibrium depending on parameter values in particular it depends on the discount rates of the two parties the degree of polarization of their preferences and the relative popu graduate school of industrial administration carnegie mellon university pittsburgh pa 15213 and national bureau of economic research cambridge ma 02138 this paper is based upon a chapter of my unpublished doctoral dissertation at harvard university i am greatly indebted to jeffrey sachs for directing my attention toward these issues and for many conversations i also wish to thank andrew abel dilip abreu olivier blanchard ramon caminal andrew caplin alex cukierman morris fiorina benjamin friedman herschel grossman howard rosenthal and the referees for very useful comments the responsibilitv af anv n mtnkieis af calrirp nfnlv mine the result of policy convergence in a two party system is more general than the median voter theorem for discussions of convergence results not at the median see john ledyard 1984 peter coughlin 1984 coughlin and shmuel nitzan 1981 melvin hinich 1977 for earlier work on spatial competition see richard mckelvey 1975 hinich ledyard and peter ordeshook 1972 1973 and the references quoted therein the present paper focuses on the result of convergence rather than on the median voter theorem per se

building or bypassing recipient country systems are donors defying the paris declaration the 2005 paris declaration on aid effectiveness sets targets for increased use by donors of recipient country systems for managing aid it also calls for donors to be more responsive to the quality of recipient country systems the optimal level of their use in terms of maximizing the development effectiveness of aid is believed to vary with their quality this study investigates the degree to which donors use of country systems is in fact positively related to their quality using indicators explicitly endorsed for this purpose by the paris declaration and covering the 2005 2010 period the results of these tests strongly confirm a positive and significant relationship and show it is robust to corrections for potential sample selection omitted variables or endogeneity bias the result holds even when estimates are informed only by variation over time within each donor recipient pair in use and quality of country systems moreover donor specific tests show that use of country systems varies positively with their quality for the vast majority of donors these findings contradict several other studies that claim there is no relation and imply that donors in this respect are failing to live up to their commitments under the paris declaration the author s interpretation of the available evidence on use of country systems is more favorable donors behavior over the measurement period is largely consistent with their commitments in this area in this respect at least donors appear to have modified their aid practices in ways that build rather than undermine administrative capacity and accountability in recipient country governments

new ways of looking at old issues inequality and growth abstract the paper uses new cross country data on income and asset land distribution to show that i there is a strong negative relationship between initial inequality in the asset distribution and long term growth ii inequality reduces income growth for the poor but not for the rich and iii available longitudinal data provide little support for the kuznets hypothesis policies that increase aggregate investment and facilitate acquisition of assets by the poor might thus be doubly beneficial for growth and poverty reduction

charitable contributions and intergenerational transfers abstract this paper investigates the effects of bequest taxes and the income of children on the lifetime charitable contributions of parents using matched income tax records for parents and children the results show a positive elasticity of 0 6 for contributions with respect to the tax price of bequests the paper also finds that the income of children affects the amount that parents contribute to charity the results show a positive elasticity of up to 0 14 for contributions by parents with respect to the income of children implying that when children are better off parents are likely to increase charitable giving

does foreign aid promote the expansion of government building on the literature on public finance i seek to advance our understanding of variations in government size by exploring the impact of official development assistance on fiscal policy i hypothesize that foreign aid operates in accordance with the flypaper effect systematically generating incentives and opportunities for the expansion of government spending results from a time series cross sectional regression analysis of growth in government spending over the 1970 99 time period are consistent with the hypothesis for middle and lower income nations aid represents an important determinant of government expansion looking at the tax and revenue side of the equation however reveals a more perverse pattern of response aid promotes not only increased spending but also reduced revenue generation the results have important implications from both a theoretical and policy perspective inter alia they point to the potentially self defeating nature of efforts to promote market oriented programs of state retrenchment via development assistance as well as to the importance of incorporating international transfers into future research on government spending

lobbying and welfare in a representative democracy this paper studies the impact of lobbying on political competition and policy outcomes in a framework which integrates the citizen candidate model of representative democracy with the menu auction model of lobbying positive and normative issues are analysed on the positive side lobbying need have little or no effect on policy outcomes because voters can restrict the influence of lobbyists by supporting candidates with offsetting policy preferences on the normative side coordination failure among lobbyists can result in pareto inefficient policy choices in addition by creating rents to holding office lobbying can lead to excessive entry into electoral competition

can mandated political representation increase policy influence for disadvantaged minorities theory and evidence from india accountable governments often fail to reflect the interests of disadvantaged minorities this paper exploits the institutional features of political reservation as practiced in indian states to examine the role of mandated political representation in providing disadvantaged groups influence over policy making ifind that political reservation has increased transfers to groups which benefit from the mandate this finding also suggests that complete policy commitment may be absent in democracies as is found in this case jel d72 d78 hl 1 h50

gifts of money and gifts of time estimating the effects of tax prices and available time abstract we develop a model that recognizes interdepence between individuals charitable cash donations and volunteer labor using survey data we estimate giving functions jointly allowing a binding non negativity constraint in one giving equation to affect the form of the other the tax price of money giving is significant in all equations with estimated elasticities of 1 7 for money giving 2 1 for women s time and 1 1 for men s time the complementarity between volunteer labor and cash donations suggests that the effect of tax policy on philanthropy is understated by considering monetary donations alone

extreme weather experiences and climate change beliefs in china an econometric analysis this paper examines the extent and the determinants of global climate change beliefs in contrast to former studies for the u s and other western countries we focus on china due to its crucial role in international climate policy in conjunction with its vulnerability to global warming the empirical analysis is based on unique data from a survey among more than 1000 adults in five chinese cities in line with former studies our results reveal that the vast majority of almost 90 of the chinese respondents believes in the existence of global warming this seems to be a convenient and necessary basis for the support of costly public adaptation activities in china our econometric analysis reveals that already perceived experiences with extreme weather events and particularly heatwaves alone are strongly correlated with climate change beliefs and that physical or financial damages due to these events lead to even stronger relationships our estimation results additionally suggest females as well as people with a lower education in medium ages with higher household incomes and from chengdu or shenyang to be more skeptical toward the existence of climate change

are estimated tax elasticities really just tax evasion elasticities the case of charitable contributions this paper uses data from tax returns that have been subject to intensive audits to confront the quantitative importance of misreporting for the estimated tax responsiveness of charitable contributions it concludes that the tax responsiveness of charitable giving that has been detected using tax return data cannot be ascribed to the tax responsiveness of overstating actual giving in fact overstatement is apparently less price responsive than actual giving implying that the responsiveness of actual giving is higher than is suggested by studying reported contributions copyright 1989 by mit press

the taxman tools up an event history study of the introduction of the personal income tax abstract the introduction of income taxation was a landmark in the historical development of the fiscal state of the now developed world this paper presents an event history study of the adoption of the income tax in 17 countries from western europe north america oceania and japan between 1815 and 1939 we find evidence that spending pressures reductions in tax collection costs and to a lesser extent social learning played a significant role for the adoption decision we also find evidence that the extension of the franchise at first reduced the likelihood of adoption of the income tax but eventually as universal suffrage was approached increased the likelihood

can simple prompts increase bequest giving field evidence from a legal call centre we report the findings of a field study demonstrating the importance of non pecuniary mechanisms for bequest giving we show that a prompt to leave money to charity that includes social emotional factors made during the will making process increases by 50 per cent the proportion of wills that include a charitable bequest in terms of magnitude we show that this is one third of the effect of a 40 estates tax at the threshold we find little response to either prompts or tax price changes among people with children indicating that for many leaving money to their children appears to preclude leaving money to charity

diagnosis murder the death of state death taxes since 1976 more than 30 states have eliminated their death taxes and many others have reduced them this unexplored case of interstate tax competition presents a unique opportunity to develop a new more satisfying definition of competitor based on historical elderly migration patterns using data from 1967 onward we outline the recent history of state death tax competition and present a spatial econometric analysis interstate tax competition is evident and grows stronger when using migration based definitions of competitors the article concludes with still more evidence of interstate tax competition the recent movement by states to effectively revive their death taxes jel h7 d7 i introduction the federal estate tax has received wide attention especially because its elimination has been a centerpiece of president george w bush s tax proposals 1 largely overlooked however is the quiet revolution that has been taking place at the state level since 1976 31 of the 48 contiguous states have repealed their death or estate inheritance and gift eig taxes instead relying only on the pick up tax whereby states capture a portion of the federal estate tax liability but do not increase the overall liability of the estate 2 of the remaining 12 states that still have eig taxes 2 have enacted legislation that will eliminate them by 2005 and others are considering doing so beyond the outright elimination of eig taxes many states have also acted to reduce them in a variety of ways such as exempting certain beneficiaries such as the spouse this trend is noteworthy for several reasons foremost it appears to us a prime example of intense interstate tax competition due to the growing size and political influence of the elderly population there is additional political pressure because states may worry that high eig taxes will drive the high income elderly to move to bordering states or retirement havens the stakes may be substantial for example longino and crown 1989 estimate that florida had a net gain of 5 billion in income from the elderly migrants it received between 1985 and 1990 and sastry 1992 73 estimates that one new job is created for every 2 5 elderly migrants it receives state eig tax competition also provides us with a unique opportunity to explore alternative definitions of competitor states beyond simple geography because the movements of the tax base the elderly are fairly easy to track via historical migration data yet no research to our knowledge has explored interstate eig tax competition furthermore these widespread changes in state eig taxes provide substantial cross sectional and time series variation that has been mostly overlooked by researchers interested in the behavioral effects of estate taxes 3 state eig tax policy is also still in flux current and proposed changes in the federal estate tax have substantial revenue consequences for states effectively eliminating eig tax revenues for those that rely solely on the pick up tax how will the states react to this change at present several states have enacted or are considering legislation that would effectively decouple their eig taxes from the federal estate tax and so would preserve the revenue source indeed as the federal estate tax is slowly eliminated eig taxes in states that continue to use them may be the only remaining taxes on bequests yet little is known about them our research seeks to fill this void using state level data from 1967 to the present we first describe the brief history and geographical pattern of these widespread reductions in state eig taxes to our knowledge ours is the first research to document in a systematic way this phenomenon we begin with a chronology of the states that eliminated completely their eig taxes thereby choosing to rely instead only on the pick up tax however there are many other ways that the states may reduce their eig taxes such as increasing exemptions or reducing tax rates

a new data set measuring income inequality this article presents a new data set on inequality in the distribution of income the authors explain the criteria they applied in selecting data on gini coefficients and on individual quintile groups income shares comparison of the new data set with existing compilations reveals that the data assembled here represent an improvement in quality and a significant expansion in coverage although differences in the definition of the underlying data might still affect inter temporal and international comparability based on this new data set the authors do not find a systematic link between growth and changes in aggregate inequality they do find a strong positive relationship between growth and reduction of poverty

paying for mitigation a multiple country study a contingent valuation study conducted in china sweden and the united states was used to investigate citizens willingness to pay wtp for reducing co2 emissions we find that a majority of the respondents in all three countries believe that the mean global temperature has increased over the last 100 years and that humans are responsible for the increase the share of americans that believes these statements is smaller and a relatively larger share of americans also believes that nothing can be done to stop climate change sweden has the highest wtp while china has the lowest jel q51 q54

intergenerational conflict and the political economy of school spending abstract in this paper we use survey data to examine support among voters from different age cohorts for public school spending the survey asked potential voters in california how they intended to vote on two initiatives one a statewide initiative that would increase spending on public schools throughout the state and the other a local initiative that would increase spending only in the respondent s local school district we find that support for school spending generally declines with age but that older voters are more willing to support local spending on schools than state spending we examine two explanations for this voting pattern the capitalization of local spending into housing values and intergenerational altruism our results do not strongly favor one explanation over the other suggesting that both factors probably play important roles in sustaining support among older voters for local school spending

the effectiveness of aid on savings and investment in sub saharan africa do volatility and institutional quality matter abstractthe effectiveness of aid is somewhat subject to its volatility this study investigates the impact of aid volatility especially on savings and investment with a particular focus on the role of institutional quality in 45 sub saharan african ssa countries over the period from 1990 to 2013 we used the generalized method of moments gmm technique combined with a measure of volatility namely an averaged data method involving six 4 year sub periods our results suggest that while aid is positively associated with savings and investment its volatility is harmful to savings and investment however when higher quality institutions exist the volatility of aid has a less negative impact on savings and investment the policy implications are diverse first donors and ssa aid dependent countries need to take into account the diversity of shocks to which aid can respond in mitigating its unpredictability secondly ssa countries should be encouraged to establish the conditions for better quality inst

aid the public sector and the market in less developed countries a reply the article in this journal by mosley et al i987 concludes its analysis of aid effectiveness as demonstrating inability of development aid over more than twenty years to provide a net increment to overall growth in the third world p 636 this note purports to show that this conclusion which is ostensibly distressing as the authors claim is not warranted the section of the study which is the basis of the conclusion cited and the subject of this note is a cross section regression analysis full details of which are shown in mosley et al table 3 the note is concerned with the relation between the dependent variable specified as the growth rate of real gdp per cent per annum hereafter gdp and aid specified as a percentage of gdp hereafter aid the aid results with only two significant positive coefficients in one subsample certainly give no basis for claiming aid effectiveness in terms of gdp growth the intention in this note is to interpret the results which are assumed to be valid this is made possible by the fact that the authors have helpfully provided the full input set of mean values derived from the raw data from this it is possible to calculate the gdp aid relationship for each country for the second and third period the procedure for deriving these relationships is as follows for each country the mean values of the time series of gdp and aid are extracted from the data for i 960 70 and for i 970 80 using i 960 70 as the base the signs of the change in the levels of the gdp and aid mean values between periods are recorded this is repeated for i980 4 with i970 80 mean values as the base the relationship between the two signs is an indication of the effect of aid on gdp in the period in which the change in levels is effected thus in the case of an increase in aid being combined with a decrease in gdp the latter must have fallen relatively to the former and aid effectiveness is negative mutatis mutandis for the other three sign combinations thus generating the appropriate gdp aid relationship for each country in each period a frequency distribution of the four sign combinations relating to the full sample is presented in table i since the signs of the changes in the levels of gdp and aid are derived by making explicit the arithmetic relationship implicit in the data they form a valid base from which to draw conclusions without requiring any test of

politics and inequality in latin america and the caribbean this article presents the first pooled time series analysis of the impact that politics and policy have on inequality in latin america and the caribbean the authors build on models consisting of sociological and economic variables adding the strength of the democratic tradition long term legislative partisan political power distribution and social spending to explain variation in inequality they analyze an unbalanced pooled time series data set for income distribution in 18 latin american and caribbean countries from 1970 to 2000 they show that the political variables add explanatory power a strong record of democracy and a left leaning legislative partisan balance are associated with lower levels of inequality as are social security and welfare spending under democratic regimes thus they replicate some and modify other well established findings from studies of organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries in the very different context of latin america and the caribbean

political orientation environmental values and climate change beliefs and attitudes an empirical cross country analysis abstract based on unique data from representative computer based surveys among more than 3400 citizens this paper empirically examines the determinants of several climate change beliefs and attitudes in three countries which are key players in international climate policy namely the usa germany as the largest country in the european union and china our econometric analysis implies that political orientation in the usa is by far more relevant for general climate change beliefs and beliefs in anthropogenic climate change than in germany and china furthermore us and german citizens with a conservative but not green identification significantly less often support publicly financed climate policy while us and german respondents with a social green identification and chinese respondents belonging to the communist party have a significantly higher willingness to pay a price premium for climate friendly products however our econometric analysis overall reveals that environmental values which are measured by a new ecological paradigm nep scale are the major factors for climate change beliefs and attitudes in all three countries and thus play an even more dominant role than political orientation in addition environmental values weaken the differences in several climate change beliefs and attitudes between a right wing and a left wing identification these interaction effects between political orientation and the nep scale are especially strong in the usa only relevant for the support of publicly financed climate policy in germany and negligible in china our estimation results suggest alternative strategies such as specific communication campaigns in order to reduce the climate change skepticism in conservative and right wing circles in the usa and to increase the support of climate policies among such population groups

eight questions about corruption this paper will discuss eight frequently asked questions about public corruption 1 what is corruption 2 which countries are the most corrupt 3 what are the common characteristics of countries with high corruption 4 what is the magnitude of corruption 5 do higher wages for bureaucrats reduce corruption 6 can competition reduce corruption 7 why have there been so few recent successful attempts to fight corruption 8 does corruption adversely affect growth

determinants of anti trafficking policies evidence from a new index we develop an index measuring the three main dimensions prosecution protection and prevention of the anti trafficking policies of the governments of up to 180 countries over the 2000 2010 period overall developed countries perform better than the rest of the world compliance with prosecution policy is highest while governmental efforts to protect victims of human trafficking remain weakest we employ the new indices to investigate which factors determine anti trafficking policies we find that compliance with anti trafficking policies significantly decreases with corruption and is higher in countries that also respect the rights of women we also find some tentative evidence for spatial dependence in anti trafficking policies

human trafficking a shadow of migration evidence from germany this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between migration and human trafficking inflows into germany during the period between 2001 and 2010 my results suggest that migrant networks measured by migrant stocks from a specific source country have a causal linkage with the illicit exploitative form of migration human trafficking from that respective country however the network effect varies across different income levels of source countries the significant positive effect of migrant networks on human trafficking decreases as the income level increases and furthermore the effect is insignificant for high income countries

an accurate measurement of the crowd out effect income effect and price effect for charitable contributions in the past empirical research on charitable contributions has focused on two issues estimating the income and price elasticities of contributions and estimating the extent to which government funding crowded out private contributions the two fundamental problems in all these studies are the differences in the underlying conceptual models and the use of imperfect data for empirical analysis this paper addresses both of these problems

aid dependence and the quality of governance cross country empirical tests aid dependence can potentially undermine the quality of governance and public sector institutions by weakening accountability encouraging rent seeking and corruption fomenting conflict over control of aid funds siphoning off scarce talent from the bureaucracy and alleviating pressures to reform inefficient policies and institutions analyses of cross country data in this paper provide evidence that higher aid levels erode the quality of governance as measured by indices of bureaucratic quality corruption and the rule of law these findings support the need for donors to develop less costly and less intrusive ways of disseminating state of the art knowledge on public sector reform in developing countries

the evidence on globalisation globalisation is blamed for many socioeconomic shortcomings i discuss the consequences of globalisation by surveying the empirical globalisation literature my focus is on the kof indices of globalisation that have been used in more than 100 studies early studies using the kof index reported correlations between globalisation and several outcome variables studies published more recently identify causal effects the evidence shows that globalisation has spurred economic growth promoted gender equality and improved human rights moreover globalisation did not erode welfare state activities did not have any significant effect on labour market interaction and hardly influenced market deregulation it increased however within country income inequality the consequences of globalisation thus turn out to be overall much more favourable than often conjectured in the public discourse

volunteer labor supply abstract we model the supply of volunteer labor which received an explicit wage of zero quantitatively important it constituted over 5 percent of the entire labor supply in the united states in 1980 both consumption and investment models are considered the former positing volunteering as an ordinary consumer good while the latter posits it as a means of obtaining on the job experience empirical estimation based on survey data discloses statistically significant effects of price and income variables on the supply of volunteer labor

policy watch death watch for the estate tax the idea of making death a taxable event infuriates some people winston churchill called estate taxes an attempt to tax dead people rather than the living steve forbes campaigned in favor of no taxation without respiration bruce bartlett 1997 points out that a key plank in the communist manifesto was the abolition of inheritance rights opponents deride the death tax as inefficient inequitable and complex violating every norm of good tax policy supporters counter that the criticisms are overstated or wrong and argue that a highly progressive tax that patches loopholes helps provide equality of opportunity breaks up concentrations of wealth and encourages charitable giving can t be all bad these debates raise a number of research questions for economists in policy circles the death watch for the u s estate and gift tax is on in 1999 in a vote split almost completely along partisan lines the republican majority in

does liberte egalite a survey of the empirical links between democracy and inequality with some evidence on the transition economies the effect of the distribution of political rights on income inequality has been studied both theoretically and empirically the authors review the existing literature and in particular the available empirical evidence the literature suggests that formal exclusion from the political process through restrictions on the voting franchise appears to have caused a high degree of economic inequality and democratization in the form of franchise expansion has typically led to an expansion in redistribution at least in the small sample of episodes studied in a less pronounced way albeit more emphatically compared with the ambiguous results of earlier research recent evidence indicates an inverse relationship between other measures of democracy based on civil liberties and political rights and inequality the transition experience of eastern european countries however seems to some extent go against these conclusions this opens possible new vistas for research namely the need to incorporate the length of democratic experience and the role played by ideology and social values

emissions trading in china emerging experiences and international lessons grants by the robert bosch foundation under the program sustainable partners partners for sustainability the australian research council and the australian government supported different parts of the project

charity and the bequest motive evidence from seventeenth century wills this paper researches motivations for charitable bequests by looking at gifts to the poor in wills written in suffolk england in the 1620s and 1630s the findings that wealthier and more religious individuals and those with fewer children give more to the poor support an altruistic model of testator utility however the result that individuals who give to more people outside of their immediate families are more likely to give to the poor contradicts the simple altruism model this result is consistent with a model that suggests that charitable giving is partially driven by the approbation granted to charitable behavior

local capture evidence from a central government transfer program in uganda according to official statistics 20 percent of uganda s total public expenditure was spent on education in the mid 1990s most of it on primary education one of the large public programs was a capitation grant to cover schools nonwage expenditures using panel data from a unique survey of primary schools we assess the extent to which the grant actually reached the intended end user schools the survey data reveal that during 1991 1995 the schools on average received only 13 percent of the grants most schools received nothing the bulk of the school grant was captured by local officials and politicians the data also reveal considerable variation in grants received across schools suggesting that rather than being passive recipients of flows from the government schools use their bargaining power to secure greater shares of funding we find that schools in better off communities managed to claim a higher share of their entitlements as a result actual education spending in contrast to budget allocations is regressive similar surveys in other african countries confirm that uganda is not a special case

independent actor or agent an empirical analysis of the impact of u s interests on international monetary fund conditions abstract in this paper we analyze whether international monetary fund imf conditionality is exclusively designed to be in line with observable economic indicators or whether it is partly driven by the imf s major shareholder the united states a panel data analysis of 206 letters of intent from 38 countries submitted during the period april 1997 through february 2003 revealed that the number of conditions on an imf loan depended on a borrowing country s voting pattern in the un general assembly closer allies of the united states and other group of 7 g7 countries received imf loans with fewer conditions especially prior to elections these results are relevant to current public policy debates on the role and process of setting imf loan conditions and provide broader insight into the influence of the united states and other g7 countries on international institutions

how do senators vote disentangling the role of voter preferences party affiliation and senate ideology this paper develops a methodology for consistently estimating the relative weights in senator utility functions despite the fact that senator ideologies are unobserved the empirical results suggest that voter preferences are assigned only one quarter of the weight in senator utility functions the national party line also has some influence but the senator s own ideology is the primary determinant of roll call voting patterns these results cast doubt on the empirical relevance of the median voter theorem estimation of the model requires only roll call voting data making it widely applicable copyright 1996 by american economic association

aid policies and growth comment in an extraordinarily influential paper craig burnside and david dollar 2000 p 847 find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal monetary and trade policies but has little effect in the presence of poor policies this finding has enormous policy implications the burnside and dollar 2000 henceforth bd result provides a role and strategy for foreign aid if aid stimulates growth only in countries with good policies this suggests that 1 aid can promote economic growth and 2 it is crucial that foreign aid be distributed selectively to countries that have adopted sound policies international aid agencies public policy makers and the press quickly recognized the importance of the bd findings this paper reassesses the links between aid policy and growth using more data the bd data end in 1993 we reconstruct the bd database from original sources and thus 1 add additional countries and observations to the bd data set because new information has become available since they conducted their analyses and 2 extend the data through 1997 thus using the bd methodology we reexamine whether aid influences growth in the presence of good policies given our focus on retesting bd we do not summarize the vast pre bd literature on aid and growth we just note that there was a long and inconclusive literature that was hampered by limited data availability debates about the mechanisms through which aid would affect growth and disagreements over econometric specification see gustav f papanek 1972 robert cassen 1986 paul mosley et al 1987 peter boone 1994 1996 and henrik hansen and finn tarp s 2000 review since bd found that aid boosts growth in good policy environments there have been a number of other papers reacting to their results including paul collier and jan dehn 2001 carljohan dalgaard and hansen 2001 patrick guillaumont and lisa chauvet 2001 hansen and tarp 2001 robert lensink and howard white 2001 and collier and dollar 2002 these papers conduct useful variations and extensions some of which had already figured in the pre bd literature such as introducing additional control variables using nonlinear specifications etc some of these papers confirm the message that aid only works in a good policy environment while others drive out the aid policy interaction term with other variables this literature has the usual limitations of choosing a specification without clear guidance from theory which often means there are more plausible specifications than there are data points in the sample we differentiate our paper from these others by not deviating from the bd specification thus we do not test the robustness of the results to an unlimited number of variations but instead maintain the bd methodology this paper conducts a very simple robustness check by adding new data that were unavailable to bd thus we expand the sample used over their time period and extend the data from 1993 to 1997 easterly department of economics new york university 269 mercer street new york ny 10003 center for global development and national bureau of economic research e mail william easterly nyu edu levine department of finance carlson school of management university of minnesota 321 19th avenue south minneapolis mn 55455 and national bureau of economic research e mail rlevine csom umn edu roodman center for global development 1776 massachusetts avenue nw washington dc 20036 e mail droodman cgdev org we are grateful to craig burnside for supplying data and assisting in the reconstruction of previous results without holding him responsible in any way for the work in this paper thanks also to francis ng and prarthna dayal for generous assistance with updating the sachs warner openness variable and to three anonymous referees craig burnside and henrik hansen for helpful comments 1 see for instance the world bank 1994 2001 2002 the u k department for international development 2000 president george w bush s speech march 16 2002 the announcement by the white house on creating the millennium challenge corporation white house 2002 as well as a washington post editorial february 9 2002 a financial times column by alan beattie march 11 2002 and the economist march 16 2002

bequest taxes and capital gains realizations abstract contrary to popular view capital gains do not escape taxation at death as they are subject to the estate tax the presence of the step up in basis increases the lock in effect of capital gains taxes as individuals are induced to hold assets until death this effect however is mitigated by the estate tax which applies to assets passed to heirs using a sample of matched income and estate tax records in a period that straddles significant changes in capital gains and estate tax rates the estate tax is found to have an unlocking effect on capital gains realizations the realization elasticity with respect to the estate tax rate is estimated at 0 36 in the basic model

growth distribution and politics we start by arguing that to understand growth differences across countries and time one needs to understand differences in public policies that affect the incentives for productive accumulation of capital human capital or technically useful knowledge and to understand policy differences one needs to understand how political institutions aggregate conflicting interests into public policies we then survey some recent work along these lines which argues that more inequality leads to slower growth next we illustrate some of the basic ideas of this work by help of a simple model of taxation we also present some econometric cross country evidence which is largely supportive of the basic ideas we end by suggestions for further work this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the citizen candidate model with imperfect policy control strategic delegation and polarization we present a modified citizen candidate model where the implemented policy arises from a compromise between the government and an unelected external power we show that the two candidate equilibria of this model differ significantly from the original however small the cost of candidacy the distance between the candidates policies both ideal and implemented remains strictly above a threshold moreover there may be one candidate equilibria in which the only candidate is not the one most preferred by the median voter both results point out that even with negligible cost of entry there are limits to strategic delegation

what explains the success or failure of structural adjustment programs in the 1980s development assistance shifted largely from financing investments such as roads and dams to promoting policy reform this change came because of a growing awareness that developing countries were held back more by poor policies than by a lack of finance for investment after nearly 20 years experience with policy based or conditional lending there have now been many studies of adjustment lending most of which take a case study approach many conclude that policy based lending works if countries have decided on their own to reform the authors examine a database of 220 world bank supported reform programs to identify why adjustment programs succeed or fail they find that a few political economy variables can successfully predict the outcome of an adjustment loan 75 percent of the time variables under the world bank s control resources devoted to preparation and supervision or number of conditions have no relationship with an adjustment program s success or failure what development agencies must do then is select promising candidates for adjustment support when the candidates is a poor selection devoting more administrative resources or imposing more conditions will not increase the likelihood of successful reform to improve its success rate with adjustment lending the world bank must become more selective and do a better job of understanding which environments are promising for reform and which are not that is likely to lead to fewer adjustment loans unless there is a significant change in the number of promising reformers to become more effective at supporting policy reform the agency must be willing to accept that this may lead to smaller volumes of lending

politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid abstract critics of foreign aid programs have long argued that poverty reflects government failure in this paper i test predictions for aid effectiveness based on an analytical framework that relates aid effectiveness to political regimes i find that aid does not significantly increase investment nor benefit the poor as measured by improvements in human development indicators but it does increase the size of government the impact of aid does not vary according to whether recipient governments are liberal democratic or highly repressive but liberal political regimes and democracies ceteris paribus have on average 30 lower infant mortality than the least free regimes this may be due to greater empowerment of the poor under liberal regimes even though the political elite continues to receive the benefits of aid programs an implication is that short term aid targeted to support new liberal regimes may be a more successful means of reducing poverty than current programs

a model of political competition with citizen candidates the authors develop a model of electoral competition in which citizens choose whether or not to run as candidates a winner implements her favorite policy the equilibrium number of candidates depends negatively on the cost of running and positively on the benefits of winning for some parameter values all equilibria under plurality rule have exactly two candidates whose positions are distinct two candidate elections are more likely under plurality rule than under a runoff system the candidates positions are less differentiated under a runoff system there exist equilibria under both systems in which some candidates have no chance of winning

why have women become left wing the political gender gap and the decline in marriage the last three decades have witnessed the rise of a pohtical gender gap in the united states wherein more women than men favor the democratic party we trace this development to the decline in marriage which we posit has made men richer and women poorer data for the united states support this argument first there is a strong positive correlation between state divorce prevalence and the political gender gap higher divorce prevalence reduces support for the democrats among men but not women second longitudinal data show that following marriage divorce women are less more likely to support the democratic party

retirement financing an optimal reform approach we study policy reforms aimed at overhauling retirement financing we develop a novel approach by considering optimal reforms policy reforms that minimize the cost for the government while respecting the distribution of welfare in the economy our model is an olg model with life cycle features and bequest motives where individuals are heterogeneous in their earning ability and mortality theoretically we show that due to the negative correlation between earnings ability and mortality postretirement distortions to saving decisions are a robust feature of any optimal policy we then use this framework to quantitatively analyze optimal reforms our quantitative exercise shows that an optimal reform relative to the status quo must have three key features first post retirement assets must be subsidized while bequests must be taxed on average optimal marginal subsidies on assets for individuals above age 65 is 3 2 percent while optimal marginal tax on their bequest is 60 percent second pre retirement transfers must increase while social security benefits must become less generous in the aggregate and more progressive towards low income groups finally earnings tax reform does not contribute to optimal reforms i e optimal marginal taxes on earnings remain very close to the status quo the optimal policies reduce the present discounted value of net tax and transfers to each generation by 15 percent

dynamic spatial panel estimates of war contagion we estimate the temporal spatial and spatio temporal effects of war using a dynamic spatial panel model our argument is that it is important to account for both the space and temporal lags concurrently while instead the existing literature largely tends to focus on one or the other key findings are as follows first there is evidence that both temporal and spatial effects significantly impact upon the duration of war second we also find that the combined spatio temporal interaction effect is significant only when excluding contemporaneous spatial lag effect third while stronger for high intensity conflict spatial and temporal effects remain significant also for low intensity conflict fourth the spatial effect is stronger in magnitude for interstate wars our results point to the importance of regional co operation for conflict prevention and peace stabilisation