spurious volatility in historical unemployment data this paper shows that the stabilization of the unemployment rate between the pre 1930 and post 1948 eras is an artifact of improvements in data collection procedures prewar methods are used to construct postwar unemployment data that are consistent with the historical data the constructed postwar series is nearly as volatile as the pre 1930 unemployment data the constructed postwar data are systematically more volatile than the actual postwar data because the cyclical behavior of the labor force and productivity are misspecified in the construction procedures the relationship between the actual and constructed postwar unemployment series is used to construct new historical data

ecosystem services from eye opening metaphor to complexity blinder abstract what started as a humble metaphor to help us think about our relation to nature has become integral to how we are addressing the future of humanity and the course of biological evolution the metaphor of nature as a stock that provides a flow of services is insufficient for the difficulties we are in or the task ahead indeed combined with the mistaken presumption that we can analyze a global problem within a partial equilibrium economic framework and reach a new economy project by project without major institutional change the simplicity of the stock flow framework blinds us to the complexity of the human predicament the ecosystem services approach can be a part of a larger solution but its dominance in our characterization of our situation and the solution is blinding us to the ecological economic and political complexities of the challenges we actually face

monetary integration and economic reform recent research in contract theory views ownership as a substitute for complete contracts here this approach is applied to monetary integration countries face a coordination problem conducting monetary policy negative spillovers ensure uncoordinated policy generates too high inflation ex ante policy makers can undertake politically costly economic reform this has a positive spillover because it improves the outcome of the monetary policy game ex post contracting over policy may be possible but it supposed that ex ante contracting over reform and monetary policy is not this paper analyses when monetary union is a good substitute for this inability to commit

reflections on some unsettled problems of irrigation it is instructive to read the article that katharine coman published in the first issue of the american economic review to gain insight into the problems of collective action related to irrigation in the american west one gains further understanding of the problems coman identifies by using a social ecological system ostrom 2007 2009 to organize the diverse variables identified by coman one gains a general lesson from this analysis that changing the formal governance structure of irrigation is not sufficient to ensure efficient investment in facilities or that farmers are able to acquire property and make a reasonable living building knowledge and trust are however essential for solving collective action problems jel b31 n51 q15 q25 katharine coman wrote a fascinating article in the first issue of the american economic review dealing with the challenge of organizing effective irrigation systems in the united states west of the one hundredth meridian in the late nineteenth

monetary accommodation exchange rate regimes and inflation persistence stable url http links jstor org sici sici 0013 0133 28199205 29102 3a412 3c461 3amaerra 3e2 0 co 3b2 lthe economic journal is currently published by royal economic society your use of the jstor archive indicates your acceptance of jstor s terms and conditions of use available athttp www jstor org about terms html jstor s terms and conditions of use provides in part that unless you have obtainedprior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content inthe jstor archive only for your personal non commercial use please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work publisher contact information may be obtained athttp www jstor org journals res html each copy of any part of a jstor transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission the jstor archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world the archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations it is an initiative of jstor a not for profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology for more information regarding jstor please contact support jstor org http www jstor orgwed feb 13 07 34 49 2008

a context based procedure for assessing participatory schemes in environmental planning the efficiency of participatory schemes in environmental planning is an emerging research area and many issues are not solved yet regarding the assessment of such procedures it is essential for decision makers to identify improvement opportunities of participatory schemes we propose an original procedure to address such issue through a bargaining model from the signaling game literature which accounts for participation design as well as for agents preferences beliefs and bargaining power the model is calibrated using qualitative data from surveys in french local communities involved in municipal solid waste management model simulations are used to test for assumptions on the stakeholder dialogue and explore sensitivity of game outcomes to structural parameters we propose a set of performance indicators to identify the most effective participatory schemes in achieving convergence in stakeholder positions regarding environmental and land use planning

institutions and environmental governance a reconceptualization abstract this article presents the conceptual revisions needed to extend the new institutional approach to environmental governance from its current local and international domains of application to all governance solutions including national environmental and natural resource use policies and multi level governance solutions that are increasingly used to address global environmental change the article suggests that environmental governance is best understood as the establishment reaffirmation or change of institutions to resolve conflicts over environmental resources it also explains why the choice of these institutions is a matter of social justice rather than of efficiency the article suggests a way to understand formal and state centered governance solutions as forms of collective ownership not unlike common property the article demonstrates how institutional analysis can gain resolution by looking at the functional and structural tiers organization of governance functions and formulation of key institutional rules as key aspects of the design of governance institutions

the economic and financial gains from water markets in chile abstract chile is one of the few countries that has encouraged the use of markets in water resource management in order to assess the impact of water markets and transactions costs in chile four river valleys the maipo elqui limari and the azapa were selected as case studies transactions from the elqui and limari valleys during the years 1986 to 1993 were analyzed to determine the gains from trade from market transfers in the economic and financial analysis of water markets crop budgets were used to estimate the value of water in agricultural production the value of water use rights to urban water supply companies was estimated using the avoided cost of an alternative investment in a water storage reservoir the analysis demonstrated that the market transfer of water use rights does produce substantial economic gains from trade in both the elqui and limari valleys these economic gains produce rents for both buyers and sellers but buyers especially farmers growing profitable crops who buy water use rights and individuals buying water use rights for potable water supply receive higher rents then sellers large table grape producers in the limari valley and individuals buying water for human consumption in the elqui valley received the highest rents in the elqui valley net gains from trade per share were within the range of recent transfer prices of us 1000 in the limari valley gains from trade per share are 3 4 times the recent prices of us 3000 for a share of water from the cogoti reservoir where trading was active especially in the limari valley transactions costs have not presented an appreciable barrier to trading nonetheless in the large canal systems with fixed flow dividers in the elqui and maipo valley there have been very few transactions various factors contribute to the lack of trading but the absence of trading in these large canal systems highlights the costs of modifying fixed infrastructure especially for trades between farmers

the lucas critique and the volcker deflation this paper examines in light of the lucas critique the behavior of the phillips curve and of the term structure of interest rates after october 1979 it starts with an informal account of the policy change and then discusses how we might expect these two relations to shift after such a change it finds little evidence of a direct effect of the policy change on the phillips curve at least until 1982 it finds substantial evidence of a direct effect on term structure this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

exchange rate rules and macroeconomic stability this paper discusses exchange rate rules in their role as macroeconomic instruments we abstract throughout from the trend part of exchange rate behaviour a crawling peg necessitated by differences in trend inflation and emphasise instead the implications of exchange rate rules in providing flexibility of real wages or in affecting the stability of output or prices

regional inequalities and the business cycle an explanation of the rise in european unemployment demertzis m and hughes hallett a 1996 regional inequalities and the business cycle an explanation of the rise in european unemployment reg studies 30 15 29 the introduction of a system of fixed exchange rates in europe has succeeded in inducing price convergence amongst its participants but at the same time has increased the divergence between their rates of unemployment in this paper we attempt to measure the level of the inefficiency imposed on the labour markets as a result of having different labour market structures under one monetary policy and then use these results to provide a new explanation for the secular rise in european unemployment based on the degree of labour market heterogeneities and the asymmetries in wage settings in each market as a closer monetary union of its own regions the uk is used as a comparison for the europe wide results demertzis m et hughes hallet a 1996 les inegalites regionales et le cycle economique une explication de la montee du chomage en europe

european monetary unification a tour d horizon this article takes stock of the literature and debate over european monetary unification in contrast to other papers where it is argued that the issues and prospects remain shrouded in uncertainty i argue that in a number of important areas a reasonable degree of consensus now exists as the result of a decade of scholarship the subsequent stock taking concentrates on areas where significant questions remain starting with the implications of surrendering the exchange rate and an independent national monetary policy as instruments of adjustment the conduct of fiscal policy under the excessive deficit procedure and the stability pact and how quickly the european union is likely to develop an eu wide system of fiscal federalism to accompany its monetary union turning from fiscal to monetary issues i ask whether the european central bank ecb will be as inflation averse as the bundesbank what exchange rate policy the ecb will pursue and whether the euro will be a leading reserve currency i conclude with what may be the most contentious issue of all namely whether europe s monetary union could collapse after it begins

the scope for collective action in a large groundwater basin an institutional analysis of aquifer governance in western australia the gnangara groundwater system in western australia supports multiple ecological systems and human uses and is under unprecedented stress this paper examines some of ostrom s situational variables for the analysis of institutional choice in common pool resources as they relate to the gnangara case the institutional analysis identifies elements of the current governance institutions that could be altered to facilitate collective action we use data from a set of water licensing documents obtained from the state s department of water a number of factors are identified as inhibiting the potential for collective action current arrangements are top down in nature with all rules monitoring and any enforcement supplied by the state level management agency norms and expectations among appropriators appear to be competitive rather than co operative and discount rates appear to be high monitoring and enforcement are under supplied and opportunistic behaviour affects compliance the interactions between user and regulator influence the appropriation of flows and have resulting impacts on the resource stock we conclude that several factors in this case prejudice the development of collective action institutions by appropriator efforts alone the study highlights important aspects of the institutional arrangements in place and their likely effects upon the attitudes and behaviours of appropriators who along with wildlife and ecosystems depend on the common pool resource

recent developments in macroeconomics underlying the existence of macroeconomics as a separate field of study are the phenomena of economy wide fluctuations of output and prices and sometimes persistent high levels of unemployment two basic views of macroeconomic behavior have persisted even as conceptual innovati ons and the application of more powerful analytic and empirical techn iques have brought significant changes in understanding of the macroe conomy copyright 1988 by royal economic society

on non uniqueness in rational expectations models an attempt at perspective abstract many macroeconomic models involving rational expectations give rise to an infinity of solution paths even when the models are linear in all variables some writers have suggested that this non uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis one purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but instead is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations it is also argued that there typically exists in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models a single solution that excludes bubble or bootstrap effects one that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur a systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed in addition this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities including ones developed by fischer black and john b taylor

the adjustment of expectations to a change in regime a study of the founding of the federal reserve the founding of the federal reserve system in 1914 led to a substantial change in the behavior of nominal interest rates the authors examine the timing of this change and the speed with which it was effected they then use data on the term structure of interest rates to determine how expectations responded their results indicate that the change in policy regime was rapid and that individuals quickly understood the new environment they were facing copyright 1987 by american economic association

interest rate seasonals and the federal reserve it is widely believed that one of the federal reserve s first important monetary policy achievements was the deseasonalization of interest rates the federal reserve supposedly accomplished this by introducing appropriate seasonal movements into the supplies of currency and high powered money this view implicitly assumes that there was no interaction between american and foreign financial markets two findings are reported that challenge this conventional view first interest rate seasonals disappeared in the united states and other countries at approximately the same time second interest rate seasonal ended approximately 3 years before the seasonal movements of currency and high powered money changed

analyzing collective action collective action problems pervade all societies as well as ecological systems used by humans substantial evidence has accrued during the last several decades that human actors are able to solve some but definitely not all collective action problems on their own without external rules and enforcement imposed from the outside in this article i review some of the structural variables that have been found to affect the likelihood of collective action then i address the need to base future work on collective action on a more general theory of human behavior than has been used to model collective action over the last five decades in the last section i discuss how structural variables affect the core relationships of reputation trust and reciprocity as these affect levels of cooperation

an institutional analysis of payments for environmental services abstract in this paper the characteristics and functioning of pes is analyzed from an institutional perspective while in theory pes is seen as a market solution to environmental problems as an alternative to state hierarchical and community governance a review of a large amount of case studies shows that pes in practice depends rather fundamentally on state and or community engagement hence pes are foremost a reconfiguration of the roles of public bodies and communities becoming core intermediaries or buyers first to establish pes rights to the land that delivers the environmental service must be clarified this demands public action second transacting over environmental amenities is very costly creating markets for environmental services depends therefore crucially on state and community facilitation hence buyers are often public agencies high transaction costs also influence price setting payments do not follow the market format as intermediaries frequently are setting the price with users often being unaware even of the fact that they pay finally the distinction between payments as incentives and as fair compensations is emphasized while payments may strengthen community relations and simplify action for environmental care they may also introduce a purely instrumental logic and in some cases worsen the environmental status by crowding out environmental virtues for the future greater awareness of these dynamics is warranted

price inertia and policy ineffectiveness in the united states 1890 1980 this paper introduces a new approach to the empirical testing of the lucas sargent wallace lsw policy ineffectiveness proposition which compares the lsw hypothesis with an alternative that states that prices respond fully in the long run but only gradually in the short run to nominal aggregate demand disturbances the empirical equations estimated for a new set of quarterly data extending back to 1890 exhibit uniformly high responses of real output and low responses of price changes to anticipated changes in nominal gnp the paper compares and tests three alternative methods of introducing persistence effects into the lsw framework

institutional ecological economics abstract new institutional economics and its forerunners have we argue made important contributions to the evolving agenda of ecological economics the conceptualisation of environmental problems as instances of interdependence and the acknowledgement of positive transaction costs are key insights into the nature of environmental problems we also discuss how plurality of behavioural motivations and limited cognitive capacity have important implications for environmental decision making and its analysis we show how evolutionary and collective action theories offer complementary takes on the choice and change of environmental governance institutions and how the concept of social capital can enrich analyses of environmental governance we conclude that an emerging institutional ecological economics has the greatest relative advantage in analysing the design implementation and effectiveness of environmental governance solutions

new keynesian economics and the phillips curve models with sticky prices are an important part of new keynesian economics the author shows that several of the new keynesian models imply a formulation that is similar to the expectations augmented phillips curve of milton friedman and edmund phelps he then presents new estimates of the new keynesian phillips curve the author uses two proxies for price expectations survey based measures and an econometric based measure originally developed by bennett mccallum 1976 overall the results are consistent with the model but the survey based results are more precise suggesting that the surveys may be better measures of actual expectations copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

the advantage of tying one s hands ems discipline and central bank credibility abstract it is often argued that the ems is an effective disciplinary device for inflation prone countries in europe since it forces the respective policy makers to pursue more restrictive monetary policies than they would otherwise it is not clear however why these countries should submit themselves to such discipline this paper argues that to answer this question appropriately one must consider that ems membership brings potentially large credibility gains policy makers in inflation prone countries the reason is that not only it attaches an extra penalty to inflation in terms of real appreciation but makes the public aware that the policy maker is faced with such penalty and thus helps to overcome the inefficiency stemming from the public s mistrust of the authorities

exchange rate regimes and inflation only hard pegs make a difference abstract using data from a large sample of developing countries from 1985 to 2001 we confirm that hard pegs currency boards or a shared currency reduce inflation and money growth there is no evidence that soft pegs confer any monetary discipline after other factors are controlled for inflation triggers regime switches under hard pegs monetary growth is unaffected by fiscal deficits or by inflation shocks under soft pegs as under floats increased fiscal deficits and positive inflation shocks are associated with higher monetary growth the apparently slower per capita output growth under hard pegs is explained by their geographical distribution jel classification f41

a test of price sluggishness in the simple rational expectations model u k i950 i980 a recurrent feature of the empirical output and price equations derived from simple rational expectations models is that the effects of nominal shocks persist for a long period of time in barro s i977 a unemployment equation unanticipated monetary growth influences unemployment with lags of up to 2 years in his price equation barro i 98 i unanticipated money has a lag of up to 5 years in the price equation fitted to uk data by attfield et al i 98i real money balances influence prices with a one year lag and unanticipated monetary growth influences them with a 2 year lag of course the existence of lags is neither necessary nor sufficient for the negation of the neutrality proposition of rational expectations models lucas i975 sargent 1979 and blinder and fischer i98i have provided rationales for the existence of lags in the supply equation and demonstrated their consistency with the neutrality proposition similarly the work of attfield et al i98i has indicated that lagged adjustments in the demand for money are also consistent with neutrality in both cases the combination of lagged adjustments with perfectly flexible market clearing prices yields all the neutrality propositions of the models of lucas and others however it is also the case that traditional keynesian type models with sluggish price adjustment imply lags in output and price equations the final equations with keynesian type lags may look very similar to the equations derived by lucas barro and others but their implications about the effectiveness of policy may be very different in the model with sluggish price adjustment supply is not equal to demand so some other rule will have to be found to determine employment and output anticipated monetary policy may be able to influence real economic variables if the employment and output rules are not specifically designed to offset the effects of anticipated policy for this reason a strong test of the neutrality proposition should be able to differentiate between different sources of lags and be able to identify them empirically if the test consists merely of a reduced form equation that identifies the lags and a rationalisation of them that is consistent with the neutrality proposition it can provide only weak evidence which may also be consistent

capital accumulation and unemployment a tale of two continents in contrast to much recent work regarding the causes of european unemployment in this paper we emphasize the importance of capital accumulation but unlike the few previous studies which have examined the relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment we argue that what matters for the evolution of employment and the unemployment rate is not the absolute growth rate of a country s capital stock but its evolution relative to other countries capital stock the empirical validity of the above statement is demonstrated for almost all oecd countries using quarterly time series data for the period 1961 1995 more detailed evidence is also presented for germany japan and the united kingdom

how the gold standard functioned in portugal an analysis of some macroeconomic aspects portugal was the first country in europe to join great britain in the gold standard in 1854 having abandoned the principle of free gold convertibility in 1891 by elucidating the historical choice of the gold standard by the portuguese authorities and analysing its macroeconomic behaviour we prove that it is a mistake to compare different monetary systems with the same indicators our examination of demand supply and monetary shocks in the context of a vector autoregression var model confirm the idea of appropriate application of the principles of classical economics to the gold standard in portugal we also prove that the principles of demand management were not compatible with the functioning of the gold standard

trade technology and the environment does access to technology promote environmental regulation abstract focusing specifically on regulation of coal fired power plants we examine how technological innovation by early adopters influences the timing of new environmental regulation in non innovating countries we build a general equilibrium model of an open economy to identify the political economy determinants of regulation with a newly created dataset of so 2 and no x regulations for coal fired power plants and a patent based measure of the technology frontier we estimate the determinants of environmental regulation diffusion our findings support the hypothesis that international economic integration eases access to environmentally friendly technologies and leads to earlier adoption ceteris paribus of regulation in non innovating countries however we also find evidence that domestic trade protection promotes earlier adoption allowing shifts of regulatory costs to domestic consumers furthermore international market power permits large countries to shift costs to foreign consumers other political economy factors such as the quality of domestic coal are also important determinants

competitiveness through disinflation an assessment of the french macroeconomic strategy france olivier jean blanchard and pierre alain muet over most of the last decade france has followed increasingly rigorous policies the hard franc approach has meant that external competitiveness is no longer sought through devaluation instead the new policy is to achieve a lower inflation rate than abroad in principle the competitiveness through disinflation approach should work and eventually bring down the unemployment rate which has remained broadly unchanged at a high level for many years while maintaining external balance this article investigates whether the policy is working inflation is lower than in germany profits have steadily increased and trade balance has been reestablished but unemployment is higher than in 1983 the policy has been more successful at bringing down inflation than at returning the economy to lower unemployment the adjustment process has been protracted credibility effects have not been fulfilled but nor however have fears that the drastic change of policy might prove unusually disruptive it simply turns out that the policy is working very slowly it would take an improbable 30 accumulated competitiveness gain to bring unemployment down by 3 which does not seem acceptable to france s trading partners

the phillips curve the persistence of inflation and the lucas critique evidence from exchange rate regimes comment we present evidence from the united states and the united kingdom that the persistence of price inflation is significantly higher under managed exchange rate regimes than under gold based fixed exchange rate regimes these differences are also reflected in expectations augmented phillips curves we use a two country macro model with forward looking price setters to demonstrate that higher monetary accommodation of inflation and exchange rate accommodation of inflation differentials increase inflation persistence the evidence does not contradict this hypothesis it supports the hypothesis of forward looking price setters and highlights the empirical significance of the lucas critique jel e31 e42 f33