remittances and the dutch disease abstract using data for el salvador and bayesian techniques we develop and estimate a two sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of remittances on emerging market economies we find that whether altruistically motivated or otherwise an increase in remittance flows leads to a decline in labor supply and an increase in consumption demand that is biased toward non tradables the higher non tradable prices serve as incentive for an expansion of that sector culminating in reallocation of labor away from the tradable sector a phenomenon known as the dutch disease quantitative results also indicate that remittances improve the welfare of households because they smooth income flows and increase consumption and leisure levels a bvar analysis provides results that are consistent with the dynamics of the model

gradual tax reforms if you like it you can keep it abstract one of the key practical challenges facing by tax reforms are their short run welfare consequences in this paper i focus on a consumption based tax reform for which despite long run welfare gains it generates welfare for some groups such as retirees or the working poor falls during transition between steady states using a life cycle model with heterogeneous households i show how to devise a transition path from the current u s federal tax system to a consumption based tax system that improves the welfare of current as well as future generations in a nutshell all households alive at the time of the policy change can choose when they want to switch to the new tax system or whether they want to switch at all i find that implementing a tax reform with this feature improves the welfare of 95 of population in the short run compared to less than a quarter of population in the conventional case with no choice it takes about twenty years for half of the population to pay their taxes under the new tax code

remittances inflation and exchange rate regimes in small open economies remittances are private monetary transfers yet the rapidly growing literature on the subject often ignores the role that exchange rate regimes play in determining the effect remittances have on a recipient economy this paper uses a theoretical model and panel vector autoregression techniques to explore the role exchange rate regimes play in understanding the effect of remittances the analysis considers yearly and quarterly data for seven latin american countries our theoretical model predicts that remittances should temporarily increase inflation and generate an increase in the domestic money supply under a fixed regime but temporarily decrease inflation and generate no change in the money supply under a flexible regime these differences are borne out in the data this adds to our understanding of the true effect of remittances on economies and suggests that other results in the literature that do not control for regimes may be biased

the distribution of abilities and the progressive income tax abstract this paper develops a model of endogenous labor supply where agents are uncertain about their future wages assuming risk aversion some redistributive taxation is thus warranted it is shown that for a particular parameterization of the tax system an optimally progressive income tax exists comparative ststics analysis demonstrates how this tax system is effected by changes in the wage distribution the paper ends with a discussion of whether an optimally progressive income tax can be politically sustained it is shown that generally this is not the case in a political system with majority voting

pareto improving social security reform when financial markets are incomplete this paper studies an overlapping generations model with stochastic production and incomplete markets to assess whether the introduction of an unfunded social security system leads to a pareto improvement when returns to capital and wages are imperfectly correlated a system that endows retired households with claims to labor income enhances the sharing of aggregate risk between generations our quantitative analysis shows that abstracting from the capital crowding out effect the introduction of social security represents a pareto improving reform even when the economy is dynamically efficient however the severity of the crowding out effect in general equilibrium tends to overturn these gains

remittances financial development and growth abstract despite the increasing importance of remittances in total international capital flows the relationship between remittances and growth has not been adequately studied this paper studies one of the links between remittances and growth in particular how local financial sector development influences a country s capacity to take advantage of remittances using a newly constructed dataset for remittances covering about 100 developing countries we find that remittances boost growth in countries with less developed financial systems by providing an alternative way to finance investment and helping overcome liquidity constraints this finding controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used and is robust to a number of robustness tests including threshold estimation we also provide evidence that there could be an investment channel trough which remittances can promote growth especially when the financial sector does not meet the credit needs of the population

fiscal policy effects in a heterogeneous agent olg economy with an aging population this paper incorporates the aging population projected by the u s social security administration to a heterogeneous agent olg model with idiosyncratic wage shocks and analyzes its effects on individual households the government budget and the overall economy the fiscal gap caused by the demographic change is 2 92 of gdp under the ssa s intermediate projection the effect of the aging population is large by itself and depends significantly on how the government finances the cost of the demographic change there is a strong trade off between efficiency and equity and this paper quantitatively assesses the pros and cons of stylized fiscal reform plans

remittances monetary policy and partial sterilization author affiliation diego e vacaflores dv13 txstate edu acknowledgment the author thanks dennis w jansen for his insightful contributions and continuous guidance i also thank the editor kent kimbrough and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments and suggestions 1 introductionremittances have increased over the last several decades international estimates of official remittance flows suggest that the total amount of worker remittances have increased to us 300 billion in 2010 inter american development bank 2012 this increase may in part be attributed to the rapid growth of money transfer institutions which has reduced the average transaction cost and has made them more visible however it may also be indicative of an actual increase in these monetary transfers due to increased migration flows which now represent approximately 45 of net private capital flows to developing countries the importance of remittances for remittances receiving developing countries does not just come from their size but mainly from its potential and actual effects on both the society and the individual remittances affect labor market decisions school retention export sector competitiveness and financial deepening funkhouser 1992 glytsos 2002 cox edwards and ureta 2003 amuedo dorantes and pozo 2004 chami fullenkamp and jahjah 2005 giuliano and ruiz arranz 2009 in terms of consumption remittance flows have gone from satisfying basic needs to providing a vast array of durable goods for recipient households they can thus potentially promote economic growth and development through higher domestic demand if motivated by altruism or through enhanced productive capacity if motivated by self interest most of the literature on remittances focuses on the microeconomic implication of such flows for the sender and for the receiver of these funds on the basis of survey data this trend in the literature has examined the motivations to remit such as contractual arrangements altruism repayment of migration costs and so on and the uses of these funds in the home country e g for education health care entrepreneurial initiatives social works etc at the macro level the literature on the impact of remittances on the recipient country is sparse but growing as researchers realize that it could have important effects on the overall economy however economists have overlooked the examination of the potential influence that higher levels of remittances can have on the implementation of monetary policy and thus its understanding is still limited since remittances provide a secondary income to households they would affect decisions with respect to labor supply and consumption which can alter the effectiveness of monetary policy when this additional income is a significant portion of a household s income additionally although domestic governments usually try to sterilize capital flows to sustain a given policy the high levels of informality in some developing countries and the significant portion of remittances that continue to flow through informal channels make monetary targeting problematic given these potential complications monetary policy could potentially have a differential impact depending on the remittances share of gdp and fluctuations in remittances can affect the amount of money in circulation and therefore economic performance accounting for such influences thus became imperative for stabilization policy this study examines the potentially different impact that monetary policy can have on output depending on the relative share of remittances as a percentage of gdp and the differential effect that remittances shocks can have on the main macroeconomic aggregates when economies do not fully sterilize such inflows channels never explored before it builds on the theoretical model developed by jansen vacaflores and naufal 2010 explicitly incorporating remittances in a small open economy framework and is able to show that monetary policy has a differential effect on output depending on the relative size of these remittances

macroeconomic interdependence under incomplete markets this paper uses a two country flexible price model with overlapping generations of infinitely lived households to study the role of net foreign asset dynamics in the propagation of productivity shocks absence of ricardian equivalence ensures existence of a unique steady state level of net foreign assets to which the economy returns following temporary shocks model dynamics are significantly different from those of a setup in which terms of trade movements perform all the international adjustment and net foreign assets do not move the difference relative to a complete markets economy in which net foreign asset movements play no role in shock transmission is smaller it is amplified if the substitutability across goods rises and if shocks are permanent

do remittances induce inflation fresh evidence from developing countries the goal of this article is to examine the determinants of inflation in both the short run and the long run for 54 developing countries using a panel data set covering the 1995 2004 period apart from the commonly used economic determinants of inflation we model the impact of remittances and institutional variables on inflation using the arellano and bond panel dynamic estimator and the arellano and bover and the blundell and bond system generalized method of moments estimator we find evidence that in developing countries remittances generate inflation the effect of remittances on inflation is more pronounced in the long run moreover we find that openness debt current account deficits the agricultural sector and the short term u s interest rate have a positive effect on inflation we also find that improvements in democracy reduce inflation

social security and retirement across the oecd abstract employment to population ratios differ markedly across organization for economic cooperation and development oecd countries especially for people aged over 55 years in addition social security features differ markedly across the oecd particularly with respect to features such as generosity entitlement ages and implicit taxes on social security benefits this study postulates that differences in social security features explain many differences in employment to population ratios at older ages this conjecture is assessed quantitatively with a life cycle general equilibrium model of retirement at ages 60 64 years the correlation between the simulations of this study s model and observed data is 0 67 generosity and implicit taxes are key features to explain the cross country variation whereas entitlement age is not

classifying exchange rate regimes deeds vs words abstract most of the empirical literature on exchange rate regimes uses the imf de jure classification based on the regime announced by the governments despite the recognized inconsistencies between reported and actual policies in many cases to address this problem we construct a de facto classification based on data on exchange rates and international reserves from all imf reporting countries over the period 1974 2000 which we believe provides a meaningful alternative for future empirical work on the topic the classification sheds new light on several stylized facts previously reported in the literature in particular we find that the de facto pegs have remained stable throughout the last decade although an increasing number of them shy away from an explicit commitment to a fixed regime hidden pegs we confirm the hollowing out hypothesis but show that it does not apply to countries with limited access to capital markets we also find that pure floats are associated with only relatively minor nominal exchange rate volatility and that the recent increase in the number of de jure floats goes hand in hand with an increase in the number of de facto dirty floats fear of floating

the budgetary and welfare effects of tax deferred retirement saving accounts abstract the present paper analyzes the budgetary macroeconomic and welfare effects of tax deferred retirement saving accounts similar to u s 401 k plans in a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations economy with heterogeneous households because of the initial deferral of tax payments the short run budgetary cost of tax deferred accounts is significantly higher than the long run cost therefore the budget neutral introduction of tax deferred accounts would make current and near future households worse off although it would increase national wealth and total output in the long run if the government spread the short run cost to future households by increasing debt the policy change could make all age cohorts on average as well off as the economy without tax deferred accounts due to increased government debt and debt service costs however national wealth and total output would decrease in the long run thus introducing tax deferred accounts would not increase national wealth and improve social welfare at the same time this is partly because the policy change is regressive and reduces the risk sharing effect of the current income tax system

workers remittances and the real exchange rate a paradox of gifts abstract we test the impact of workers remittances on the real exchange rate using a panel of 13 latin american and caribbean countries the analysis reveals that workers remittances have the potential to inflict economic costs on the export sector of receiving countries by reducing its international competitiveness our findings raise concerns parallel to those raised by dutch disease or resource boom models where resource discoveries result in real exchange rate appreciation and shifting of resources from the traded to the nontraded sectors of the economy

pension design with a large informal labor market evidence from chile this article investigates the fiscal and welfare trade offs involved in designing a pension system when workers can avoid contributing by working informally using a life cycle model of labor supply and saving decisions i structurally estimate preferences and earnings opportunities in the formal and informal sectors using data on chilean households i find limited support for formal jobs rationing instead mandatory pension contributions significantly encourage informality policy experiments show that chile could lower minimum pension spending by 23 while guaranteeing the same income to retirees if the minimum pension s implicit tax rate was increased to 60

remittances and savings from international migration theory and evidence using a matched sample abstract the central question of this paper concerns the implications of remittance flows for migrants and their origin households in the country of origin this paper represents the first attempt to present a disaggregated view of international remittance flows using a matched sample of international migrants and their origin families i investigate two types of remittances transfers to the home family and savings in the country of origin the empirical evidence provides support for the altruistic model of transfer behavior wealthier origin families tend to receive lower transfers other things being equal however remittances sent to finance origin country investments are positively associated with origin household wealth the estimation strategy addresses two common problems that arise in investigating remittance behavior omitted variable bias and the measurement of origin household resources

remittances entrepreneurship and employment dynamics over the business cycle abstract we incorporate remittances and micro entrepreneurship self employment into a small open economy business cycle model with capital and labor market frictions countercyclical remittances moderate the decline of households consumption during recessions these remittances also are used to finance the start up costs of microenterprises that bolster households income during economic downturns we show that the positive income effect from countercyclical remittances also leads to a decrease in salaried labor supply which generates offsetting upward pressure on wages during recessions and adversely affects the recovery of the economy consistent with the microeconomic evidence the behavior of remittances decisively affects labor force participation and the composition of employment between non salaried and salaried employment over the business cycle the model delivers labor market and aggregate cyclical dynamics that are consistent with the mexican data including a highly volatile and countercyclical unemployment rate

migration from nicaragua some recent evidence abstract i utilize two unique data sources to examine migration from and remittance flows to the capital city of managua nicaragua approximately 10 12 of the population has emigrated these emigrants tend to be disproportionately of working age better educated and more often white collar workers than nonmigrants in addition emigrants are more likely to come from larger premigration households and higher income households remittance flows to managua are quite large the second largest source of foreign exchange earnings after coffee in addition remittances have a negative income effect on labor force participation and a positive effect on self employment of nonmigrants

migration networks and microenterprises in mexico are migration networks associated with lower capital costs or the alleviation of capital constraints we examine these questions with data measuring access to remittance flows among small scale entrepreneurs in mexico using a survey of more than 6000 self employed workers and small firm owners located in 44 urban areas of mexico we estimate the impact of attachment to migration networks on the level of capital investment the capital output ratio sales and profits of microenterprises the impact is identified from the geographic pattern of migration from mexico driven by the completion of rail lines in the early 1900s for the full sample of firms we find that migration is associated with higher investment levels and higher profits but not higher sales the strongest effects on investment are in the categories of automobiles tools and inventories when the sample is limited to firms in high capital sectors investment sales and profits all increase with attachment to the migration networks suggesting that attachment to the migration network alleviates capital constraints in those sectors

remittances and the migration development nexus challenges for the sustainable governance of migration abstract this paper argues that possible effects of international migration on the environment have to be analysed with respect to both the three dimensions of sustainability and the migration stakeholders it has recently been put forward that immigration has to be reduced for environmental reasons in contrast this paper embarks from the view that reducing immigration is costly ineffective and ethically troublesome it argues that there are strong interrelations between development and migration suggesting that one has to consider development problems when discussing migration in this context the enormous amount of remittances of migrant workers could yield considerable potential for promoting sustainable development sustainable governance is needed to manage this potential wisely in doing so it is essential to consider the migration stakeholders sending and receiving countries and the migrants themselves and balance the three dimensions of sustainability

a rational economic model of paygo tax rates abstract we argue that paygo rates are determined by a representative agent and a benevolent government jointly maximizing the expected life time utility of the agent the distributions of labor and capital income are calculated from national data on real gdp real wages and the real return to capital since 1950 with uniform risk aversion predicted rates explain 83 of the variance of observed rates the globalization of capital markets would lead to convergence of paygo rates our results are immune to crises like 2008

does social security privatization produce efficiency gains while privatizing social security can improve labor supply incentives it can also reduce risk sharing we analyze a 50 privatization using an overlapping generations model where heterogeneous agents with elastic labor supply face idiosyncratic earnings shocks and longevity uncertainty when wage shocks are insurable privatization produces about 18 100 of extra resources for each future household after all transitional losses have been compensated for with lump sum taxes when wages are not insurable privatization reduces efficiency by about 2 400 per future household we check the robustness of these results to different model specifications as well as policy reforms and arrive at several surprising conclusions first privatization performs better in a closed economy where interest rates decline with capital accumulation than in an open economy second privatization also performs better when an actuarially fair private annuity market does not exist third government matching of private contributions on a progressive basis is not very effective at restoring efficiency and can actually cause harm

intergenerational risk sharing and endogenous labour supply within funded pension schemes funded defined benefit pensions add to welfare on account of providing intergenerational risk sharing but lower it on account of inducing labour supply distortions we show that a properly designed funded defined benefit pension scheme involves a welfare improvement even if contributions are distortionary and even if individuals face potentially correlated wage and equity risks numerical calculations indicate that diversification gains from risk sharing are large compared to the losses related to labour supply distortions this result withstands a number of extensions like the introduction of a short sale constraint for individuals or the inclusion of a labour income tax

remittances and labor force participation in mexico an analysis using propensity score matching summary about 2 5 million mexicans migrated to the united states during 1997 2002 and 1 6 million of them sent remittances to their families did recipients change their labor force status in response to these remittances this question has been examined before unlike the previous studies we separate persistent from sporadic remittances and we use propensity score matching to measure differences in behavior we find limited evidence of labor force participation effects of persistent remittances which is broadly consistent with remittances being an integral part of household s income generation strategy

fiscal cost of demographic transition in japan abstract this paper quantifies the fiscal cost of demographic transition that japan is projected to experience over the next several decades in a life cycle model with endogenous saving consumption and labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins retirement waves of baby boom generations combined with a rise in longevity and low fertility rates raise the old age dependency ratio to 85 by 2050 the highest among major developed countries and generate a significant budget imbalance as the government faces rising costs of public pension and health and long term care insurance preserving the current level of the transfers will require a major increase in taxation using consumption taxes to balance the government budget the tax rate reaches the maximal value of 48 in late 2070s a pension reform to reduce benefits by 20 results in a peak tax rate of 37 which can be reduced further to 28 if the retirement age is also gradually raised by 5 years

how effective is redistribution under the social security benefit formula abstract this paper uses earnings histories from the social security administration linked to the survey responses for participants in the health and retirement study to investigate redistribution under the current social security benefit formula as advertised own benefits are significantly redistributed from individuals with high to those with low lifetime earnings however redistribution is roughly halved when spouse and survivor benefits are taken into account and redistribution is measured among families when families are arrayed by total earnings during years when both spouses are engaged in substantial work there is very little redistribution from families with high to low earnings capacity

monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations abstract using data for the philippines i develop and estimate a heterogeneous agent model to analyze the role of monetary policy in a small open economy subject to sizable remittance fluctuations i include rule of thumb households with no access to financial markets and test whether remittances are countercyclical and serve as an insurance mechanism against macroeconomic shocks when evaluating the welfare implications of alternative monetary rules i consider both an anticipated large secular increase in the trend growth of remittances and random cyclical fluctuations around this trend in a purely deterministic framework a nominal fixed exchange rate regime avoids a rapid real appreciation and performs better for recipient households facing an increasing trend for remittances a flexible floating regime is preferred when unanticipated shocks driving the business cycle are also part of the picture

social security and two earner households in the past decades elimination of the pay as you go system in u s has been extensively discussed and studied such an elimination would also eliminate the intra cohort redistribution done by the following policies of social security due to spousal and survivor s beneflt provisions the system redistributes mostly to single earner married households not necessarily progressive retirement beneflts are a concave function of past mean earnings hence the system redistributes from high earners to low earners finally the existence of a cap on social security taxable earnings makes the system regressive this is the flrst paper that quantifles redistributive labor supply and welfare implications of these policies using a general equilibrium life cycle model agents start out as permanently married or single and with education levels and wage proflles where the latter depend both on education and gender the household is the decision maker and decides on the labor supply of its member s and saving the aggregate production function has as inputs capital and labor aggregated by e ciency elimination of these policies results in a 6 1 increase in married female labor force participation rate the middle income single earner married households experience the largest welfare losses whereas the high income two earner households together with high income single households experience the largest welfare gains

equilibrium transitions from non renewable energy to renewable energy under capacity constraints abstract we study the transition between non renewable and renewable energy sources with adjustment costs over the production capacity of renewable energy assuming constant variable marginal costs for both energy sources convex adjustment costs and a more expensive renewable energy we show the following with sufficiently abundant non renewable energy endowments the dynamic equilibrium path is composed of a first time phase of only non renewable energy use followed by a transition phase substituting progressively renewable energy to non renewable energy before a last time phase of only renewable energy use the investment into renewable energy may either begin before actual production of renewable energy or be delayed until the energy price achieves a sufficient gap with respect to the renewable energy cost with an initially abundant non renewable resource the features of the transition between non renewable and renewable energy do not depend upon the initial resource stock

consumption taxes and economic efficiency with idiosyncratic wage shocks fundamental tax reform is examined in an overlapping generations model in which heterogeneous agents face idiosyncratic wage shocks and longevity uncertainty a progressive income tax is replaced with a flat consumption tax if idiosyncratic wage shocks are insurable i e no risk this reform improves interim efficiency a result consistent with the previous literature but if more realistically wage shocks are uninsurable this reform reduces efficiency even though national wealth and output increase over the entire transition path this efficiency loss in large part stems from reduced intragenerational risk sharing that was previously provided by the progressive tax system

simulating fundamental tax reform in the united states this paper uses a new large scale dynamic life cycle simulation model to compare the welfare and macroeconomic effects of transitions to five fundamental alternatives to the u s federal income tax including a proportional consumption tax and a flat tax the model incorporates intragenerational heterogeneity and a detailed specification of alternative tax systems simulation results project significant long run increases in output for some reforms for other reforms namely those that seek to insulate the poor and initial older generations from adverse welfare changes long run output gains are modest

retirement financing an optimal reform approach we study policy reforms aimed at overhauling retirement financing we develop a novel approach by considering optimal reforms policy reforms that minimize the cost for the government while respecting the distribution of welfare in the economy our model is an olg model with life cycle features and bequest motives where individuals are heterogeneous in their earning ability and mortality theoretically we show that due to the negative correlation between earnings ability and mortality postretirement distortions to saving decisions are a robust feature of any optimal policy we then use this framework to quantitatively analyze optimal reforms our quantitative exercise shows that an optimal reform relative to the status quo must have three key features first post retirement assets must be subsidized while bequests must be taxed on average optimal marginal subsidies on assets for individuals above age 65 is 3 2 percent while optimal marginal tax on their bequest is 60 percent second pre retirement transfers must increase while social security benefits must become less generous in the aggregate and more progressive towards low income groups finally earnings tax reform does not contribute to optimal reforms i e optimal marginal taxes on earnings remain very close to the status quo the optimal policies reduce the present discounted value of net tax and transfers to each generation by 15 percent

remittances output and exchange rate regimes theory with an application to latin america immigrant remittances have a broad effect on the receiving economies we show this impact on the main macroeconomic aggregates is dependent on the policy arrangements in place that manage capital flows we look at remittance inflows in a small open economy to examine their influence on output under alternative exchange rate regimes using a simple stochastic limited participation model we are able to reproduce dynamics consistent with the empirical literature we find that the dynamics of labor inflation and output are dependent on the parameterization of the utility function and on the monetary rule governing the evolution of the interest rate and in particular with respect to the response of interest rates to exchange rate movements we find that the initial drop of output resulting from a remittances shock is similar under alternative exchange rate regimes but the subsequent recovery of output is faster and stronger under more flexible exchange rate regimes we provide suggestive empirical evidence from a panel vector autoregression specification for 17 latin american countries that corroborates our results