the demise of the rent controlled public housing programmes of ghana the story of the tema development corporation in 1952 a new town called tema was created in ghana the master plan for tema made provision for 19 planned communities each having roughly 1500 2000 homes about 6355 housing units are government owned rental housing the rental housing stock is the subject of this study this paper reports an empirical study that shows that rent controls coupled with public management have caused investment values in the rental housing stock to disappear for example this study finds that the nominal rate of return on total investment for these rentals based on replacement value has a mean value of only 3 per cent with inflation rates around 15 per cent during the study period this implies a negative real rate of return the findings provide empirical support and justification for recent attempts to privatise all rental public housing in ghana the study concludes with public policy recommendations

activity choice labor allocation and forest use in malawi this article examines the determinants of activity choice affecting forest use among low income households in malawi data from three villages are used to estimate a system of household labor share equations for maize production forest employment and non forest employment a system estimation approach is used to identify factors influencing the competing and synergistic livelihood strategies which households undertake at the forest margin results from constrained maximum likelihood estimation indicate heightened incentives to degrade forests when returns to forest use are high factors reducing forest pressure include favorable returns to non forest employment secondary education of the household head and wealth

property rights externalities and resource degradation locating the tragedy abstract resource degradation in the third world is largely driven by the demands of farm households for fuelwood and land for agriculture since resources are often controlled through indigenous systems of property the tragedy of the commons has been used to explain resource degradation as a result private property is suggested as a solution to resource degradation a dynamic model capable of examining household incentives for resource use under private and common property is developed results of the model reject the conventional wisdom that gives rise to the presumed optimality of private individual property in natural resources and the correlated indictment of group management regimes

investment strategies reversibility and asymmetric information abstract in this paper we examine the reversibility effects on a firm s investment trigger timing and quantity strategies in the presence of asymmetric information between the firm owner and the manager we obtain five main results under conditions of asymmetric information first information asymmetry increases delays investment trigger timing second under information asymmetry investment quantity increases in degree of reversibility while under information symmetry it is constant third social loss arising from information asymmetry increases in degree of manager s informational rent and degree of reversibility but decreases in volatility fourth an increase in volatility increases the owner s value while it decreases the manager s value fifth an increase in volatility increases the ex post manager s value while it decreases the ex ante manager s value an increase in degree of reversibility decreases the ex post manager s value while it increases the ex ante manager s value

macro scale economic influences on tropical forest depletion abstract the paper examines the influence of global and domestic factors on forest depletion in 45 tropical developing countries from 1967 to 1985 it links forest depletion with conditions in the international markets and with domestic macroeconomic and demographic factors calculated elasticities suggest that real exchange rate devaluation debt service food self sufficiency income and export prices of forestry and agricultural output had significant influence on the depletion of tropical forests during the study period

strategic interdependence in models of property rights the concept of strategic interdependence has opened a wide spectrum of explanation beyond the robinson crusoe economy this essay explores the implications of strategic interdependence for the theory of property rights and the new institutional economics schotter it attempts to clarify some of the linkages from institutional economics to micro and macroeconomic theory by considering how property institutions result from strategic interdependence confer payoffs to individual agents and reflect collective choices based on individual preferences

ambiguity aversion in buyer seller relationships a contingent claims and social network explanation negotiations between buyers and sellers or suppliers of goods and services have become increasingly important due to the growing trend towards international purchasing outsourcing and global supply networks together with the high uncertainty associated with them this paper examines the effect of ambiguity aversion on price negotiations using multiple priors based real options with non extreme outcomes we study price negotiation between a buyer and seller in a dual contingent claims setting call option holding buyer vs put option holding seller to derive optimal agreement conditions under ambiguity with and without social network effects we find that while higher ambiguity aversion raises the threshold for commitment for the seller it has equivocal effects on the buyer s negotiation prospects in the absence of network control conversely when network position and relative bargaining power are accounted for we find the buyer s implicit price or negotiation threshold decreases or increases unequivocally with increasing aversion to ambiguity extending extant real options research on price negotiation to the case of ambiguity this set of results provides new insights into the role of ambiguity aversion and network structures in buyer seller relationships including how they influence the range of negotiation agreement between buyers and sellers the results also help assist managers in formulating robust buying selling strategies for bargaining under uncertainty by knowing their network positions and gathering background information or inferring the other party s ambiguity tolerance beforehand buyers and sellers can anticipate where the negotiation is heading in terms of price negotiation range and mutual agreement possibilities

incomplete contracts and privatization the paper offers a selective survey on the incomplete contracts approach to privatization furthermore a simple model of privatization to an owner manager is developed in which different allocations of ownership rights lead to different allocations of inside information about the firm which in turn affect allocative and productive efficiency in this model privatization is a commitment device of the government to credibly reward the manager for a successful cost reduction and to harden his budget constraint

chance constrained financing as a response to financial risk the results of a recent survey suggest that many decision makers view financial risk in a safety first context imposing safety first chance constraints on potential financial ratios or flows can be difficult with traditional methods this is particularly true with financial ratios when both the numerator and denominator are random and are affected by endogenous decisions a model and numerical example are presented which enforce probabilistic or chance constraints upon potential debt asset ratios in a multiperiod linear program the model can be easily modified to probabilistically constrain alternative financial performance measures such as current ratios working ratios or cash flows

the tragedy of the commons in cote d ivoire agriculture empirical evidence and implications for evaluating trade policies expansion of cultivated land diminishes the extent of forestlands or reduces the length of fallow periods and hence reduces the amount of natural vegetation the increase in land under cultivation has a direct output increasing effect at the cost of reducing natural capital and agricultural productivity the evidence for western cote d ivoire is consistent with and provides an explanation for the declining agricultural productivity observed in sub saharan africa during the past few decades this article uses a theoretical model to determine the level of land cultivation that maximizes village income using data from cote d ivoire for 1985 87 an important part of the land is under common property usually at the village level the results show that farmers do not internalize even a small fraction of the external cost of biomass in their land allocation decisions the lack of internalization of the social cost of the biomass resource leads to large income losses at the village level as much as 14 percent of village income these losses are many times larger than the usual estimates for conventional distortions

on the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices abstract this paper applies new time series procedures to examine the prebisch singer hypothesis of a secular deterioration in relative primary commodity prices specifically we allow for up to two structural breaks in 24 price series covering the 1900 98 period for the majority of commodities it is shown that the trend is not well represented by a single downward slope but instead by a shifting trend that often changes sign over the sample period unlike some recent work that has also allowed for structural breaks these results provide much less support for the prebisch singer hypothesis

explosive oil prices spectacular oil price increases occur on a regular basis the most recent one is dated july 2008 this paper puts forward the notion that extreme oil price movements of this type can be described as temporary explosive the paper applies a forward recursive unit root tests and finds evidence of explosive behavior in the following periods 1990 1991 2005 2006 and 2007 2008 currently existing oil price models are not capable of appropriately describing this type of behavior a thorough discussion of the underlying reasons of these price hikes indicates these oil price episodes even though extreme are mainly fundamentally explained this finding is insufficiently acknowledged in the literature on speculative oil price bubbles thus policy interventions as response to extreme movements of this kind need to be very carefully thought through

noncausality and the commodity currency hypothesis abstract this paper provides new evidence on the role of exchange rates in forecasting commodity prices consistent with previous studies we find that commodity currencies hold out of sample predictive power for commodity prices when using standard linear predictive regressions after we reconsider the evidence using noncausal autoregressions which provide a better fit to the data and are able to accommodate the effects of nonlinearities and omitted variables the predictive power of exchange rates disappears

testing the stochastic structure of production a flexible moment based approach conventional production function specifications are shown to impose restrictions on the probability distribution of output that cannot be tested with the conventional models these restrictions have important implications for firm behavior under uncertainty a flexible representation of a firm s stochastic technology is developed based on the moments of the probability distribution of output these moments are a unique representation of the technology and are functions of inputs large sample estimators are developed for a linear moment model that is sufficiently flexible to test the restrictions implied by conventional production function specifications the flexible moment based approach is applied to milk production data the first three moments of output are statistically significant functions of inputs the cross moment restrictions implied by conventional models are rejected

environmental externalities in traditional agriculture and the impact of trade liberalization the case of ghana abstract this paper provides a framework for the evaluation of trade policies that explicitly considers the effects of such policies on the environmental resources biomass in doing this we estimate the effects of biomass as a factor of agricultural production and test the hypothesis that farmers efficiently exploit biomass a resource held in common property the main findings are i biomass is an important factor of production in ghanian agriculture ii the biomass resource is exploited beyond the socially optimal level iii a deepening of trade liberalization is likely to induce further losses of biomass and deforestation and iv national income is likely to fall in response to further trade liberalization

an optimal path to extinction poverty and resource degradation in the open agrarian economy this paper constructs a model of the open agrarian economy in order to explore the tendency of many such economies to evolve along paths characterised by severe environmental degradation it pays special attention to the importance of commodity prices and the transfer system in determining agricultural activity levels in ecologically delicate systems

venture capital staged financing and optimal funding policies under uncertainty abstract our paper presents a dynamic model of entrepreneurial venture financing under uncertainty based on option exercise games between an entrepreneur and a venture capitalist vc in particular we analyze the impact of multi staged financing and both economic and technological uncertainty on optimal contracting in the context of vc financing our novel approach combines compound option pricing with sequential non cooperative contracting allowing us to determine whether renegotiation will improve the probability of coming to an agreement and proceed with the venture it is shown that both sources of uncertainty positively impact the vc investor s optimal equity share specifically higher uncertainty leads to a larger stake in the venture and renegotiation may result in a dramatic shift of control rights in the venture preventing the venture from failure moreover given ventures with low volatility situations might occur where the vc investor loses his first mover advantage based on a comparative static analysis new testable hypotheses for further empirical studies are derived from the model

economic development and environmental management in the uplands of southeast asia challenges for policy and institutional development using a philippine case study site the forces driving the recent evolution of economic behavior and institutional arrangements in upland and forest margin areas of southeast asia are considered in early modern development subsistence agriculture using long phase forest fallow rotations and regulated by customary law was replaced by more intensive commercially oriented farming systems a process heavily influenced by internal migration to the agricultural frontier traditional land and resource use institutions were quickly displaced during this shift both de facto through the actions of colonists and de jure through the state s assertion of ownership over forests and uplands and the introduction of private title to agricultural lands yet the effective implementation of natural resource use constraints lagged substantially behind the pace of agricultural development and forest exploitation resulting in a period in which high demand for such resources coincided with virtually open access these processes were noticeably subject to the influence of policies and reforms affecting markets prices and institutions

common property institutions and sustainable governance of resources abstract the literature on common property based resource management comprises many important studies that seek to specify the conditions under which groups of users will self organize and sustainably govern resources upon which they depend using three of the more comprehensive such studies and with an extensive review of writings on the commons this paper demonstrates that the enterprise of generating lists of conditions under which commons are governed sustainably is a flawed and impossibly costly research task for a way out the paper examines the relative merits of statistical comparative and case study approaches to studying the commons it ends with a plea for careful research design and sample selection construction of causal mechanisms and a shift toward comparative and statistical rather than single case analyses such steps are necessary for a coherent empirically relevant theory of the commons

transboundary externalities in the environmental transition hypothesis the environmental kuznets curve ekc is a hypothesis which implies that it is possible to grow out of environmental degradation most theoretical models of the ekc relation have not accounted for transboundary and intergenerational externalities nor have empirical studies provided evidence that validates an inverted u shaped relation between environmental degradation and economic growth for pollution problems where the effects are far displaced or are long delayed

the financial and operating performance of newly privatized firms an international empirical analysis this study compares the pre and postprivatization financial and operating performance of 61 companies from 18 countries and 32 industries that experience full or partial privatization through public share offerings during the period 1961 to 1990 our results document strong performance improvements achieved surprisingly without sacrificing employment security specifically after being privatized firms increase real sales become more profitable increase their capital investment spending improve their operating efficiency and increase their work forces furthermore these companies significantly lower their debt levels and increase dividend payout finally we document significant changes in the size and composition of corporate boards of directors after privatization the last fifteen years have witnessed a significant global shift away from state socialism towards entrepreneurial capitalism one of the most important and visible aspects of this trend has been the enthusiasm with which governments of all political persuasions have sold their state owned enterprises soes to private investors in hopes that the generally unsatisfactory economic performance of these firms can be improved by the discipline of private ownership this denationalization process given its current title of privatization by the conservative government of margaret thatcher in

interactions between investment timing and management effort under asymmetric information costs and benefits of privatized firms abstract in this paper we examine the interactions between investment timing and management effort in the presence of asymmetric information between the owner and the manager where the manager has an informational advantage we find that investment timing is later under asymmetric information than under full information implying a decrease in the value of equity option however in order to minimize any distortion under underinvestment management effort is greater under asymmetric information than under full information we show that there are trade offs in the efficiencies of investment timing and management effort under asymmetric information these results fit well with the findings of past empirical studies concerning the costs and benefits of privatized firms

productive efficiency in public and private firms abstract this paper compares the degree of x inefficiency which emerges as a consequence of the imposition of the optimal incentive contracts in public and private firms using a straightforward principal agent model with two possible states of the world it establishes the rather surprising result that in the good state of the world public ownership always results in a higher degree of productive efficiency

working in public and private firms abstract we develop a theoretical framework for comparing incentives labor productivity and the allocation of effort in public versus private enterprises we incorporate socializing an activity which yields utility for workers and affects a firm s output into a multitask model of work organization we establish the two following results first the optimal workers compensation policy displays a larger incentive intensity in the private firm than in the public firm second labor productivity in the private firm may be higher or lower than in the public firm both results fit well with the findings of empirical work

bubbles in food commodity markets four decades of evidence abstract we use daily prices from individual futures contracts to test whether speculative bubbles exist in 12 agricultural markets and to identify whether patterns of bubble behavior exist over time the samples begin as far back as 1970 and run through 2011 the findings demonstrate that all 12 agricultural markets experienced multiple periods of price explosiveness however bubble episodes represent a very small portion between 1 5 and 2 of price behavior during the 42 year period in addition most bubbles are short lived with 80 90 lasting fewer than 10 days though receiving far less attention negative bubbles contribute significantly to price behavior accounting for more than one third of explosive episodes markets over react during both positive and negative explosive episodes leading to a correction as they return to a random walk this adjustment back to fundamental values is most pronounced with positive bubbles particularly in the earlier part of the sample while the magnitudes of the corrections are generally small there were a few instances of significant increases in prices and large over reactions most notably in the softs e g cocoa 1973 coffee 1994 cotton 2010 we also find that explosive periods did not become more common or last longer in the second half of the sample period and that the most recent bubble episodes may not have been as severe as in mid 1970s

economy and environment a theoretical essay on the interdependence of economic and environmental systems preface notation guide 1 introduction part i the physical economy environment system 2 closed physical systems a model 3 structure and time in the physical system 4 technological change and the environmental constraints to physical growth part ii the economic system 5 the price system 6 prices property and the environment 7 economic conflict and environmental change part iii environmental strategies in an evolutionary economy environment system 8 time uncertainty and external effects 9 the market solution 10 the stationary state 11 conclusions references index

the tragedy of the commons in cote d lvoire agriculture expansion of cultivated land diminishes the extent of forestlands or reduces the length of fallow periods and hence reduces the amount of natural vegetation the increase in land under cultivation has a direct output increasing effect at the cost of reducing natural capital and agricultural productivity the evidence for western cote d lvoire is consistent with and provides an explanation for the declining agricultural productivity observed in sub saharan africa during the past few decades this article uses a theoretical model to determine the level of land cultivation that maximizes village income using data from cote d lvoire for 1985 87 an important part of the land is under common property usually at the village level the results show that farmers do not internalize even a small fraction of the external cost of biomass in their land allocation decisions the lack of internalization of the social cost of the biomass resource leads to large income losses at the village level as much as 14 perce

can exchange rates forecast commodity prices we show that commodity currency exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices both in sample and out of sample and against a variety of alternative benchmarks this result is of particular interest to policy makers given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular we also explore the reverse relationship commodity prices forecasting exchange rates but find it to be notably less robust we offer a theoretical resolution based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward looking whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short term demand imbalances

evaluation of firm s loss due to incomplete information in real investment decision abstract we investigate the effect of incomplete information in a model where a start up with a unique idea and technology pioneers a new market but will eventually be expelled from the market by a large firm s subsequent entry we evaluate the start up s loss due to incomplete information about the large firm s behavior we clarify conditions under which the start up needs more information about the large firm the proposed method of evaluating the loss due to incomplete information could also be applied to other real options models involving incomplete information

optimal exercise of jointly held real options a nash bargaining approach with value diversion this paper provides a two stage decision framework in which two or more parties exercise a jointly held real option we show that a single party s timing decision is always socially efficient if it precedes bargaining on the terms of sharing however if the sharing rule is agreed before the exercise timing decision is made then socially optimal timing is attained only if there is a cash payment element in the division of surplus if the party that chooses the exercise timing can divert value from the project then the first best outcome may not be possible at all and the second best outcome may be implemented using a contract that is generally not optimal in the former cases our framework contributes to the understanding of a range of empirical regularities in corporate and entrepreneurial finance

are there gains from pooling real time oil price forecasts the answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real time oil price forecasts depends on the objective the approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and using it for all horizons up to two years

oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices abstract while the impacts of oil price changes on agricultural commodity markets are of great interest to economists previous studies do not differentiate oil specific shocks from aggregate demand shocks in this paper we address this issue using a structural var analysis our findings indicate that the responses of agricultural commodity prices to oil price changes depend greatly on whether they are caused oil supply shocks aggregate demand shocks or other oil specific shocks mainly driven by precautionary demand oil shocks can explain a minor friction of agricultural commodity price variations before the food crisis in 2006 2008 whereas in post crisis period their explanatory abilities become much higher after crisis the contributions of oil specific factors to variations in agricultural commodity prices are greater than those of aggregate demand shocks the results from an alternative svar confirm the robustness of our main findings

poverty and famines an essay on entitlement and deprivation this book focuses on the causes of starvation in general and famines in particular the traditional analysis of famines is shown to be fundamentally defective and the author develops an alternative analysis

strategic entry in a triopoly market of firms with asymmetric cost structures abstract this paper examines the strategic investment timing decision in a triopoly market comprising firms with asymmetric cost structures we present three novel results first in the case where there are relatively small cost asymmetries between firms and a relatively small first mover advantage the firm with the lowest cost structure is not always the first investor in other cases the firm with the lowest cost structure is the first investor second an increase in volatility increases the possibility that a firm without the lowest cost structure is the first investor finally even in the three asymmetric firm model we show that the first investor threshold is larger in a triopoly than in a duopoly although it is smaller in a duopoly than in a monopoly

how is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks abstract this study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on volatility of agricultural and metal commodities we decompose an oil price shock to its underlying components including macroeconomics and oil specific shocks the applied method is the structural vector autoregressive svar model and the time span is from april 1983 to may 2014 the investigation is divided into two subsamples before and after may 2006 for agriculture taking into account the 2006 2008 food crisis and change in u s ethanol production policy and before and after january 2008 for metals considering the recent global financial crisis we find that based on impulse response functions the response of volatility of each commodity to an oil price shock differs significantly depending on the underlying cause of the shock for the both periods moreover according to variance decomposition the explanatory power of oil shocks becomes stronger after the crisis the different responses of commodities are described in detail by investigating market characteristics in each period

information access income distribution and the environmental kuznets curve abstract recent empirical studies have tested the hypothesis of an environmental kuznets curve ekc focusing primarily on the relationship between per capita income and certain types of pollutant emissions given the stock nature of many pollution problems emissions only partially account for the environmental impacts moreover almost all of the studies have given consideration to little more than income levels as explanatory variables this paper empirically tests the hypothesis of the ekc existence for a stock sensitive indicator that is the percentage of protected area pa within national territory it does theorize that economic growth is a necessary condition in order to better address environmental issues but it also stresses that other variables income distribution education information accessibility may play a fundamental role in determining environmental quality contrary to other studies that mainly focus on the calculation of the income level corresponding to the transition point this paper is more concerned with the calculation of environmental quality corresponding to that transition point that is the minimum level of environmental quality that a country is willing to accept this paper highlights the idea that if the transition point is determined primarily by income level social policies determine the level of environmental quality corresponding to that point

dual economic growth in poor tropical areas abstract we consider a two sector model a modern sector and an extensive one with the extensive sector being highly dependent on natural vegetation cover as a factor of production in the extensive sector land tenure is not well defined we show that taxing the extensive sector as a whole and land intensive crops relative to labor intensive crops increases real income consumption in the short run however necessarily falls the cost of the adjustment is paid mostly by the poor when the extensive sector as a whole is taxed the distributional consequences of taxing the land intensive outputs however are ambiguous

economic perspectives on privatization despite being one of the most fundamental issues in political economy the question of the appropriate boundary between public and private enterprise received relatively little attention in mainstream economic analysis until quite recently in the 1980s however programs of ownership reform were started in many developed and developing countries dramatic though some of these policies have been they are likely to be overshadowed in the 1990s by even greater privatization in the reforming socialist economies the opening sections of this paper are organized around three broad and interrelated questions how does ownership matter for the efficiency of enterprise performance what is the role for privatization in financing public debts and deficits what are the distributional and political implications of privatization finally we examine privatization in practice in three countries britain chile and poland

the effects of well management and the nature of the aquifer on groundwater resources we compare groundwater use under collective well management in china where village leaders allocate water among households and under private well management where farmers either pump from their own wells or buy water from wells owned by other farmers villages are divided into connected or isolated groups depending on whether there are lateral groundwater flows between aquifers underlying a village and neighboring ones in rural china households under collective well management use less water even under collective management households located in connected villages use more water indicating that the connectedness of the aquifers may undermine leaders incentives to conserve water

the structure of a contract and the theory of a non exclusive resource the process of arriving at a useful concept of analysis is not only slow and painful but also may go astray and attain nothing useful someone begins with one example or observation followed by a theory which is intuitively plausible a theoretical term associated with a vague concept is coined examples of a seemingly different type emerge which call for another theory the process goes on as examples and theories continue to accumulate the different categories under the same heading of analysis serve only to confuse and each associated theory becomes ad hoc such has been the fate of the concept of externality a more useful approach i think is via contractual conditions the example chosen for illustration is marine fisheries where the fishing right is taken

natural resources prices export policies and deforestation the case of sudan abstract environmental destruction is often the result of price policies for primary commodities that determine how individuals will use and abuse natural resources in this paper we analyze how domestic policies under colonial and independent governments in sudan contributed to acacia senegal deforestation and the demise of the international gum arabic trade when primary commodities are produced from environmentally beneficial species such as acacia senegal trees the impact of a declining market for the primary commodity will have economic and ecological repercussions on other sectors in the economy poverty and risk are central to this process

the impacts of uncertainties in a real options model under incomplete information abstract this paper examines the impact with respect to the uncertainty of the underlying state variable profit uncertainty on the real options model in a situation of incomplete information profit uncertainty has not incorporated into the real options model under incomplete information in that the underlying state variable is not formulated as the stochastic process see e g bernardo a e chowdhry e b 2002 resources real options and corporate strategy journal of financial economics 63 211 234 we extend the model developed by bernardo and chowdhry to formulate the underlying state variable as the stochastic process we conclude that profit uncertainty has the same type of impact on the real options value and its triggers both under complete and incomplete information

a factor model for co movements of commodity prices abstract we fit a factor model to two monthly panels of deflated prices of energy metals and agricultural commodities prices consistently display a tendency to revert towards the factor though the speed of reversion to the factor is slow using both in and out of sample metrics we compare the factor model to that of a no change model and to two simple models that tie changes in commodity prices to percentage change in either global industrial production or the u s dollar the factor model does relatively well at long 12 month horizons in terms of commodities the factor model s performance is best for energy prices worst for metals with agricultural prices falling in between

commodity prices interest rates and the dollar this paper sheds light on recent fluctuations in commodity prices we investigate whether a decline in real interest rates and the us dollar contributes to higher commodity prices and whether commodity prices display overshooting behavior in response to changes in real interest rates we analyze the behavior of real prices of crude oil food metals and industrial raw materials the analysis is based on structural var models estimated on quarterly data over the period 1990q1 2007q4 our results suggest that commodity prices increase significantly in response to reductions in real interest rates moreover oil prices and prices of industrial raw materials tend to display overshooting behavior in response to such interest rate changes the evidence also suggests that a weaker dollar leads to higher commodity prices shocks to interest rates and the dollar are found to account for substantial shares of fluctuations in commodity prices

dynamic investment and capital structure under manager shareholder conflict abstract this paper investigates the interactions between the investment and financing decisions of a firm under manager shareholder conflicts arising from asymmetric information in particular we extend the manager shareholder conflict problem in a real options model by incorporating debt financing we show that manager shareholder conflicts over investment policy increase not only the investment and default triggers but also coupon payments which lead to a decrease in the equity value moreover given the presence of manager shareholder conflicts debt financing increases investment and decreases total social welfare as a result there is a trade off between the efficiency of investment and total social welfare with debt financing these results fit well with the findings of previous empirical work in this area

commodity prices convenience yields and inflation abstract this paper provides evidence that the two leading principal components in a panel of 23 commodity convenience yields have statistically and quantitatively important predictive power for inflation even after controlling for unemployment gap and oil prices the results hold up in out of sample forecasts across forecast horizons and across g7 countries the convenience yields also explain commodity prices and can be seen as informational variables about future economic conditions as conveyed by the futures markets a bootstrap procedure for conducting inference when the principal components are used as regressors is also proposed

technical change in agriculture and land degradation in developing countries a general equilibrium analysis this paper analyzes the role of economic linkages between upland agriculture lowland agriculture and other sectors in developing economies and the potential for welfare enhancing shifts from more to less erosive upland land use patterns comparative statics results are obtained from analytical and numerical general equilibrium models they indicate that the green revolution in lowland agriculture helped alleviate upland land degradation and that policies aimed at slowing land degradation through technical progress in upland crops may have the opposite of their intended effects the results highlight the need for integrated policy packages to reduce upland land degradation in developing countries

deprived land use intensification in shifting cultivation the population pressure hypothesis revisited this article provides a theoretical framework based on optimal control theory to analyze farm households land use intensification decisions in forest based shifting cultivation slash and burn agroecosystems the main results from the analysis generally coincide with the population pressure hypothesis pph as an important driver of soil degradation due to the so called fallow crisis or deprived land use intensification in shifting cultivation however the model also shows from a supply perspective that such a vicious circle of lower yields and greater forest land clearing may be avoided when the production elasticity of on farm labor outweighs the elasticity of substitution between farm labor and soil fertility furthermore using data from shifting cultivating households from yucatan mexico we calibrate the effect of changes in population density the numerical analysis suggests that by contrast to better off households when population density increases poorer shifting cultivating households optimal labor allocation strategy is to further extensify land use by clearing more forest in the village common property land or ejido land

understanding international commodity price fluctuations abstract an overview is provided of recent work on commodity prices focusing on three themes i financialization of commodity markets commodities being considered by financial investors as a distinct asset class ii trends and forecasts of commodity prices and iii fracking a shorthand for the emergence of new sources of energy supply lessons are drawn on the role of fundamentals and expectations in driving the rapidly changing nature of commodity markets

property relations and economic development the other land reform abstract continued concern for development has led to the suggestion that private property rights should be created to stimulate economic development this suggestion derives from an incomplete understanding of the property relations on the public domain lands in the arid tropics and from a confusion of cause and effect between property and economic productivity a model of the private public boundary in land is developed that challenges the view that wealth would increase if land at the extensive margin were privatized the various types of property regimes in land are defined and explained

behavioural and material determinants of production relations in agriculture in this essay we develop a framework for analysing the major institutions governing the production and exchange of output and the primary factors of production in rural areas the analysis incorporates general considerations of risk and information constraints jointly with the principal material attributes of agriculture and of agricultural production factors the framework is used to analyse barriers to the existence of the major intertemporal and factor markets it is applied specifically to land scarce environments for which it provides an internally consistent explanation for many of the well documented institutional features of such settings in addition the analysis provides new implications for among other phenomena the inter relationships among ownership holdings operational scale family size and factor productivity for the scarcity of animal rental markets and use of animals as collateral for the renting out of land by small landowners and for the existence of plantations for certain crops

contracting problems and regulation the case of the fishery the inefficiencies of common property fisheries are of continuing concern to economists the early work by scott gordon 1954 and anthony scott 1955 outlined the problem and later studies by james crutchfield and giulio pontecorvo 1969 and frederick bell 1972 provided empirical estimates of the losses that result those studies were followed by the dynamic models of colin clark 1976 and james quirk and vernon smith 1970 of optimal harvest rates and the use of corrective taxes or quotas to achieve them but in spite of a large and growing literature and the persuasiveness of the outlined efficiency criteria most fisheries retain common property aspects with overcapitalization and excessive labor input why those conditions persist and the failure of the regulatory response to them are the issues addressed in this paper we examine a number of fisheries but focus on the texas shrimp industry which is one of the nation s most valuable fisheries for a single species and which shares the common property characteristics observed elsewhere it is considered overcapitalized and catch per unit of effort is falling 2 examination of the fishery reveals the many margins along which rent dissipation occurs and the nature of the regulations necessary for controlling fishing effort to avoid those losses the regulatory environment in texas is complicated by conflict within the fishery between inshore and offshore fishermen the latter assert that bay shrimping reduces the number of shrimp that successfully migrate to the gulf the inshore fishery is highlighted by another issue the recent resettlement of some 30 45 000 vietnamese refugees including many fishermen along the texas coast marine advisory service paul starr their entry has been met by hostility and violence from existing shrimpers who recognize that they are in an environment characterized by the absence of property rights bay shrimpers have lobbied the texas legislature for broad limits on new entrants yet ironically the sale of additional boats by individual shrimpers to the vietnamese has facilitated entry of the refugees into the fishery regulations in the texas shrimp and other fisheries are incomplete leaving many options for rent dissipation uncontrolled because of high contracting costs among fishermen and political factors that mold government actions contracting costs are high among heterogeneous fishermen who vary principally with regard to fishing skill 3 montana state university and texas a m university respectively we benefitted from comments by terry anderson raymond c battalio gardner brown oscar burt micha gisser wade griffin john r moroney anthony d scott peter temin and participants in workshops at texas a m university and the university of washington research assistance was provided by scott barnhart and phil mizzi funding was provided by sea grant texas a m university throughout this paper we use the terms common property and open access interchangeably here the terms describe a situation where no property rights group or individual exist s for the resource 2catch per unit of effort in the inshore texas gulf and federal gulf waters is presented for 1963 77 by w l griffin c g tydlacka and w e grant they show catch per unit of effort generally falling in inshore and offshore waters while catch per unit of effort fluctuates from year to year it falls from approximately 360 kg shrimp per unit of effort to 220 kg from 1963 to 1977 the common property nature of the fishery is reflected in the following statistics since 1975 the number of vessels has grown by 23 percent nelson swartz for fish houses the record of entry is similar between 1970 a d 1977 the number of firms grew from 259 to 287 though during that period many left the industry as others entered the number of fish houses was calculated from license data supplied by the texas parks and wildlife department the record of entry by fish houses suggests that monopsony as discussed by colin clark and gordon munro is absent in the fishery 3there may be minor differences in labor leisure choices and capital but our statistical evidence and discussions with fishermen indicate that catch variations are largely due to skill government regulations in the texas bays restrict capital and our empirical evidence shows boats to be relatively homogeneous

investment timing asymmetric information and audit structure a real options framework abstract this paper examines investment timing by the manager in a decentralized firm in the presence of asymmetric information in particular we incorporate an audit technology in the agency model developed by grenadier and wang 2005 investment timing agency and information journal of financial economics 75 493 533 the implied investment trigger in the agency problem with auditing is larger than in the full information problem and smaller than in the agency problem without auditing nevertheless the audit technology does not necessarily reduce inefficiency in the total social welfare

privatization and efficiency differentiating ownership effects from political organizational and dynamic effects this paper argues that the private public ownership factor should be differentiated from other factors that also influence the effect of privatization on efficiency this is empirically confirmed in a longitudinal study of 24 spanish firms for which several political and organizational factors are found to influence the estimated effects of privatization on efficiency the analysis of the timing of the effects reveals a strong significance for post privatization years 5 6 negative and 7 8 positive this suggests that the negative effect of these factors is transitional being eventually offset by the positive effects of the change to private ownership 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved jel classification l33

on induced economic change in precapitalist societies abstract this essay explores a number of properties of a general growth model of induced economic change in precapitalist societies which incorporates both the insights of ester boserup and thomas malthus responses to diminishing returns include changes in work intensity and population growth some important variants of the model are also examined which focus on the transfer of production to non producers and on alternative processes by which change is induced the results are used to generate some parameters influencing the political stability of non working elites to criticize some previous less general growth models and to suggest some fruitful lines fot future empirical research on economic development in the long run

default and liquidation timing under asymmetric information abstract we consider a dynamic model in which shareholders delegate the running of a firm to a manager who observes private information about the firm s running and liquidation costs we analytically derive the optimal compensation scheme contingent on the firm s cost structure information asymmetries can change the high cost firm s bankruptcy choice and timing most notably even if the liquidation value is higher than the face value of debt the high cost firm can choose default rather than liquidation to reduce the manager s information rent this can lead to the counterintuitive result that the debt value increases beyond the face value as the firm approaches default and that it jumps upward at the default time information asymmetries accelerate negative liquidation and delay positive liquidation whereas they accelerate default the optimal leverage ratio of the asymmetric information case becomes higher than that of the symmetric information case because more debt mitigates the loss due to information asymmetries our results can potentially account for many empirical findings

alleviating soil erosion pollution stock externalities alternative roles for government abstract this paper addresses two temporal externalities due to agriculture soil erosion and related pollution the possibility of decentralization of decisions the appropriate role of a resource manager and the efficiency of alternative policies are examined using traditional welfare economics concepts for a two sector model of rural urban linkage three alternative types of policies can be socially efficient but imply different involvement by government and have different knowledge requirements a pigouvian policy requires full information a bargaining solution involves government only in setting an entitlement but it may require too much knowledge by rural households in terms of understanding dynamic environmental relationships a third way is that government and rural households be co producers of environmental goods this concept assigns government the responsibility for maintaining knowledge about environmental relationships and government is a participant in a market system that determines prices for environmental related goods

ejido reforms in mexico conceptual issues and potential outcomes the evolving privatization of the ejido system in mexico represents a challenge to standard economic models of common property regimes these models tend to emphasize human interrelations while discounting the ecological conditions which form the environment for human interactions a risk spreading safety first model capturing interrelationships between nature and humans is developed to analyze the potential implications of mexico s privatization efforts recognizing that the majority of ejido lands are communal not parcelized located primarily in arid areas the model supports the prediction that privatization will occur and be most successful on irrigated ejido lands with modern social and economic infrastructure

what drives commodity prices this paper examines common forces driving the prices of 51 highly tradable commodities we demonstrate that highly persistent movements of these prices are mostly due to the first common component which is closely related to the us nominal exchange rate in particular our simple factor based model outperforms the random walk model in out of sample forecast for the us exchange rate the second common factor and de factored idiosyncratic components are consistent with stationarity implying short lived deviations from the equilibrium price dynamics in concert these results provide an intriguing resolution to the apparent inconsistency arising from stable markets with nonstationary prices

real options in strategic investment games between two asymmetric firms abstract this paper examines strategic investment games between two firms that compete for optimal entry in a project that generates uncertain revenue flows under asymmetry on both the sunk cost of investment and revenue flows of the two competing firms we investigate the value of real investment options and strategic interaction of investment decisions compared to earlier models that only allow for asymmetry on sunk cost our model demonstrates a richer set of strategic interactions of entry decisions we provide a complete characterization of pre emptive dominant and simultaneous equilibriums by analyzing the relative value of leader s and follower s optimal investment thresholds in a duopoly market with negative externalities a firm may reduce loss of real options value by selecting appropriate pre emptive entry when one firm has a dominant advantage over its competitor both the dominant firm and dominated firm enter at their respective leader s and follower s optimal thresholds when the pre emptive thresholds of both firms happen to coincide the two firms enter simultaneously under positive externalities firms do not compete to lead

booms and slumps in world commodity prices abstract this paper examines the duration and magnitude of cycles in world commodity prices cycles are a dominant feature of commodity prices and dealing with the economic consequences of booms and slumps in prices continues to be one of the most challenging issues facing policymakers in commodity exporting developing countries we find that there is an asymmetry in commodity price cycles as price slumps last longer than price booms how far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they tend to rebound in a subsequent boom in addition for most commodities the probability of an end to a slump boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump boom

fairness stewardship and sustainable development abstract the welfare economic concept of fairness offers an attractive axiomatic foundation for the popular notion of stewardship fairness emphasizes the ex ante equal standing of all persons across and within generations this highlights the inextracability of poverty alleviation and environmental sustainability especially in the agrarian tropics where biodiversity loss deforestation and desertification are growing global concerns