central bank design abstract starting with a blank slate how could one design the institutions of a central bank for the united states this paper explores the question of how to design a central bank drawing on the relevant economic literature and historical experiences while staying free from concerns about how the fed got to be what it is today or the short term political constraints it has faced at various times the goal is to provide an opinionated overview that puts forward the trade offs associated with different choices and identifies areas where there are clear messages about optimal central bank design

determinacy and learnability of monetary policy rules in small open economies this paper evaluates under which conditions different taylor type rules lead to determinacy and expectational stability e stability of rational expectations equilibrium in a simple new keynesian small open economy model developed by gali and monacelli 2005 in particular we extend the bullard and mitra 2002 results of determinacy and e stability in a closed economy to this small open economy framework our results highlight an important link between the taylor principle and both determinacy and learnability of equilibrium in small open economies more importantly the degree of openness coupled with the nature of the policy rule adopted by the monetary authorities might change this link in important ways a key finding is that contrary to bullard and mitra expectations based rules that involve the cpi and or the nominal exchange rate limit the region of e stability and the taylor principle does not guarantee e stability we also show that some forms of managed exchange rate rules can help to alleviate problems of both indeterminacy and expectational instability yet these rules might not be desirable since they promote greater volatility in the economy

pioneering price level targeting the swedish experience 1931 1937 in september 1931 sweden became the first country to make the stabilization of the domestic price level the official goal of its monetary policy actually the only country that so far has adopted such an explicit price level target starting from the issues and concepts familiar from research and policy experience of inflation targeting as contrasted to price level targeting this paper examines the evolution of the swedish price level targeting in the 1930s we bring out a number of similarities and differences between price stabilization in the 1930s and in the 1990s

are interest rate regressions evidence for a taylor rule abstract in a variety of recent papers researchers have found that interest rate behaviour approximately follows a taylor rule we show that such interest rate behaviour results when the central bank may be following quite different monetary policy rules from the one proposed by taylor in other words an interest rate relation with output and inflation does not identify a central bank reaction function

management ownership and market valuation an empirical analysis we investigate the relationship between management ownership and market valuation of the firm as measured by tobin s q in a 1980 cross section of 371 fortune 500 firms we find evidence of a significant nonmonotonic relationship tobin s q first increases then declines and finally rises slightly as ownership by the board of directors rises for older firms there is evidence that q is lower when the firm is run by a member of the founding family than when it is run by an officer unrelated to the founder

the spatial effect of fiscal decentralization and factor market segmentation on environmental pollution abstract externality is a form of market failure and also a starting point for government intervention environmental quality as local public goods has a characteristic of regional spillover thus the intervention of government is crucial fiscal policy is widely seen as an effective tool for environmental management the existing literature about fiscal decentralization s effect on environmental pollution did not consider about spatial correlation in factor market segmentation to explore such decentralized effect through factor distortions we develop a two sector model on the constraint of pollution emissions and market segmentations and conduct an empirical estimation using chinese provincial panel data from 15 years the results show that there is a big difference between expenditure and revenue decentralization on pollution furthermore market segmentation exacerbated the environmental effects of fiscal decentralization and its positive role on environmental pollution is statistically more significant therefore a better way out of pollution for policy making viewpoint is to adjust the decentralization structure and to break the productive factor market segmentation

does the form of compensation matter abstract the role of fee contracts in the agency relation between investment bankers and client firms in tender offers is investigated using a sample of offers between 1978 and 1986 different fees have different payoff functions which can be used by firms to create incentives and by bankers to signal differences in abilities the effectiveness of fee contracts in resolving agency problems in tested with mixed results the evidence suggests that fee contracts are used as a tool by both firms and bankers and that contracts influence tender offer outcomes but that contracting is only a partial solution to the agency problem

empirical evidence on inflation expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve abstract we review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the new keynesian phillips curve paying particular attention to the issue of weak identi

do central banks respond to exchange rate movements a structural investigation abstract we estimate a small scale structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using bayesian methods our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in australia canada new zealand and the uk we consider generic taylor type rules where the monetary authority reacts in response to output inflation and exchange rate movements we perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates the main result of this paper is that the central banks of australia and new zealand do not whereas the bank of canada and the bank of england do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule this result is robust for various specification of the policy rule we also find that terms of trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles

corporate combinations and common stock returns the case of joint ventures the gain to stockholders from mergers is well documented however there is little evidence as to whether the source of the gain is due to synergy or management displacement merger is just one of an almost limitless variety of ways in which firms combine resources to accomplish some objective a joint venture is another in addition to being of interest as an independent phenomenon because the original managements of the parent firms remain intact under a joint venture investigation of wealth gains from joint ventures provides an opportunity to isolate the management displacement hypothesis from the synergy hypothesis as the source of gains in corporate combinations our results are 1 there are significant wealth gains from joint ventures 2 the smaller partner earns a larger excess rate of return while the dollar gains are more equally divided and 3 the gains scaled by resources committed yield premiums similar to those in mergers we are inclined to interpret our results as supportive of the synergy hypothesis as the source of gain from corporate combinations this paper is an empirical investigation of the common stock returns of u s companies that enter into joint ventures with other u s companies we consider joint ventures in the context of what is by now a burgeoning literature examining the security returns of companies involved in intercorporate mergers and tender offers 1 in this context our objective is to provide evidence as to the source of the well documented gains to stockholders of firms involved in mergers and tender offers in addition joint ventures are an interesting economic phenomenon in their own right they are undertaken by many of the largest u s companies involve billions of dollars in capital expenditures annually and are subject to considerable scrutiny in the popular press in this regard our analysis provides data on what is as yet a relatively unexplored area of economic activity 2 a corporate merger represents the joining together of all the resources of two companies under a single management to accomplish some set of objectives empirical studies have found that mergers generally result in significant increases in the total market values of the merging firms with the stockholders of the

testing for indeterminacy an application to u s monetary policy reply this paper considers a prototypical new keynesian model in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is passive the likelihood based estimation of dynamic equilibrium models is extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot fluctuations we construct posterior weights for the determinacy and indeterminacy region of the parameter space and estimates for the propagation of fundamental and sunspot shocks according to the estimated model u s monetary policy post 1982 is consistent with determinacy whereas the pre volcker policy is not we find that before 1979 indeterminacy substantially altered the propagation of shocks

price level targeting and stabilisation policy a survey this paper surveys recent articles on the costs and benefits of price level targeting focusing its use as a tool for stabilisation policy it discusses how price level targeting can affect the short run trade off between output and inflation variability by influencing inflation expectations it reviews how assigning an explicit price level target to a central bank that is unable to commit to its future policies can improve economic performance it surveys other potential benefits and costs among the costs it underlines the importance of perfectly rational expectations for the optimality of price level targeting and an exacerbation of the time inconsistency problem

comparing new keynesian models of the business cycle a bayesian approach abstract the baseline new keynesian model cannot replicate the observed persistence in inflation output and real wages for sensible parameter values as a result several extensions have been suggested to improve its fit to the data we use a bayesian approach to estimate and compare the baseline sticky price model of calvo s 1983 staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework journal of monetary economics 12 383 398 and three extensions our empirical results are as follows first we find that adding price indexation improves the fit of calvo s 1983 staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework journal of monetary economics 12 383 398 model second models with both staggered price and wage setting dominate models with only price rigidities third introducing wage indexation does not significantly improve the fit fourth all model estimates suggest a high degree of price stickiness fifth the estimates of labor supply elasticity are higher in models with both staggered price and wage contracts finally the estimated inflation parameters of the taylor rule are stable across models

wicksellian rules and the taylor principle some practical implications in this paper we derive and compare the determinacy regions of price level targeting rules wicksellian rules and taylor rules in a standard new keynesian model we conclude that wicksellian rules do not require the taylor principle to hold in order to induce determinacy our results have two implications first in a univariate setting the estimation of simple taylor rules when the true rule is wicksellian can lead to the erroneous conclusion that the equilibrium is indeterminate second indeterminacy is ruled out when using system based methods but it can be concluded that the central bank is less averse to inflation movements than it actually is

weak instrument robust tests in gmm and the new keynesian phillips curve we discuss weak instrument robust statistics in gmm for testing hypotheses on the full parameter vector or on subsets of the parameters we use these test procedures to reexamine the evidence on the new keynesian phillips curve model we find that u s postwar data are consistent with the view that inflation dynamics are predominantly forward looking but we cannot rule out the presence of considerable backward looking dynamics moreover the phillips curve has become flatter recently and this is an important factor contributing to its weak identification

price level versus inflation targeting abstract this paper shows that price level targeting outperforms inflation targeting in the standard new keynesian model under the assumption that the central bank is forced to operate in an environment characterized by discretion in the benchmark case with no persistence in the shocks the commitment solution can be fully replicated intuitively price level targeting introduces history dependence and a stationary level of prices both of which are prominent features of the commitment solution

learning about monetary policy rules abstract we study macroeconomic systems with forward looking private sector agents and a monetary authority that is trying to control the economy through the use of a linear policy feedback rule we use stability under recursive learning a la evans and honkapohja learning and expectations in macroeconomics princeton university press princeton new jersey 2001 as a criterion for evaluating monetary policy rules in this context we find that considering learning can alter the evaluation of alternative policy rules

measuring firm size in empirical corporate finance abstract in empirical corporate finance firm size is commonly used as an important fundamental firm characteristic however no research comprehensively assesses the sensitivity of empirical results in corporate finance to different measures of firm size this paper fills this hole by providing empirical evidence for a measurement effect in the size effect in particular we examine the influences of employing different proxies total assets total sales and market capitalization of firm size in 20 prominent areas in empirical corporate finance research we highlight several empirical implications first in most areas of corporate finance the coefficients of firm size measures are robust in sign and statistical significance second the coefficients on regressors other than firm size often change sign and significance when different size measures are used unfortunately this suggests that some previous studies are not robust to different firm size proxies third the goodness of fit measured by r squared also varies with different size measures suggesting that some measures are more relevant than others in different situations fourth different proxies capture different aspects of firm size and thus have different implications therefore the choice of size measures needs both theoretical and empirical justification finally our empirical assessment provides guidance to empirical corporate finance researchers who must use firm size measures in their work

technology shocks in the new keynesian model in the new keynesian model preference cost push and monetary shocks all compete with the real business cycle model s technology shock in driving aggregate fluctuations a version of this model estimated via maximum likelihood points to these other shocks as being more important for explaining the behavior of output inflation and interest rates in the postwar u s data these results weaken the links between the current generation of new keynesian models and the real business cycle models from which they were originally derived they also suggest that federal reserve officials have often faced difficult trade offs in conducting monetary policy

trend inflation taylor principle and indeterminacy positive trend inflation shrinks the determinacy region of a basic new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model when monetary policy is conducted by a contemporaneous interest rate rule neither the taylor principle which requires the inflation coefficient to be greater than one nor the generalized taylor principle which requires that the nominal interest rate to be raised by more than the increase in inflation in the long run is a sufficient condition for local determinacy of equilibrium this finding holds for different types of taylor rules inertial policy rules and price indexation schemes therefore regardless of the theoretical setup the monetary literature on interest rate rules cannot disregard average inflation in both theoretical and empirical analyses

pitfalls of forward looking monetary policy a distinctive feature of the procedures recently adopted by inflation targeting central banks is their forward looking character forecasts of the economy s future evolution conditional upon alternative policies play a central role in the banks deliberations to an extent that the procedures adopted are sometimes characterized as forecast targeting this emphasis upon the future consequences of policy is unsurprising in an approach that tries to maintain as transparent as possible a relation between the banks9 decisions and the ultimate goals of monetary policy after all current decisions can still affect the future but not the past nonetheless common descriptions of how inflation targeting is or should be practiced go too far in proposing purely forward looking procedures i shall argue instead that an optimal framework for the conduct of monetary policy must generally be history dependent in ways

monetary policy rules based on real time data this paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules using taylor s rule as an example i demonstrate that real time policy recommendations differ considerably from those obtained with ex post revised data further estimated policy reaction functions based on ex post revised data provide misleading descriptions of historical policy and obscure the behavior suggested by information available to the federal reserve in real time these results indicate that reliance on the information actually available to policy makers in real time is essential for the analysis of monetary policy rules

determinacy learnability and monetary policy inertia we show how monetary policy inertia can help alleviate problems of indeterminacy and non existence of stationary equilibrium observed for some commonly studied monetary policy rules we also find that inertia promotes learnability of equilibrium the context is a simple forward looking model of the macroeconomy widely used in the rapidly expanding literature in this area we conclude that this might be an important reason why central banks in the industrialized economies display considerable inertia when adjusting monetary policy in response to changing economic conditions

how do diversity of opinion and information asymmetry affect acquirer returns we examine the theoretical predictions that link acquirer returns to diversity of opinion and information asymmetry theory suggests that acquirer abnormal returns should be negatively related to information asymmetry and diversity of opinion proxies for equity offers but not cash offers we find that this is the case and that more strikingly there is no difference in abnormal returns between cash offers for public firms equity offers for public firms and equity offers for private firms after controlling for one of these proxies idiosyncratic volatility jel g31 g32 g34 this article examines whether variables suggested by diversity of opinion models and information asymmetry models are helpful in understanding the cross sectional variation in acquirer announcement returns using a sample of pure equity offers and pure cash offers for public and private firmsfrom1980to2002 wedocumentthatthesevariables theuncertainty proxies explain a significant fraction of the cross sectional variation in acquirer announcement returns perhaps most strikingly after controlling for the uncertainty proxies there is no difference in abnormal returns between cash offers for public firms equity offers for public firms and equity offers for private firms using two proxies for diversity of opinion employed previously in the literature the standard deviation of analyst forecasts and breadth of ownership we show that bidder abnormal returns for acquisitions of

targeting capital structure the relationship between risky debt and the firm s likelihood of being acquired in a takeover wealth transfers from bidder and target equityholders to target debtholders can occur if target debt is coinsured by either the bidder s assets or by the synergy itself such wealth transfers reduce bidder and target shareholder gains and could poison the acquisition with a sample from 1979 90 the author finds that as the coinsurance potential of a firm s debt measured as the amount of relatively risky debt outstanding increases its likelihood of being acquired decreases in particular he finds this coinsurance deterrent to be strongest during the 1985 90 period and strongest for firms with public debt outstanding copyright 1996 by university of chicago press

taylor rules and the deutschmark dollar real exchange rate we explore the link between an interest rate rule for monetary policy and the behavior of the real exchange rate the interest rate rule in conjunction with some standard assumptions implies that the deviation of the real exchange rate from its steady state depends on the present value of a weighted sum of inflation and output gap differentials the weights are functions of the parameters of the interest rate rule an initial look at german data yields some support for the model

takeovers and divergence of investor opinion we test several hypotheses on how takeover premium is related to investors divergence of opinion on a target s equity value we show that the total takeover premium the pre announcement target stock price run up and the post announcement stock price markup are all higher when investors have higher divergence of opinion we obtain identical results with higher market level investor sentiment when divergence of opinion is higher a firm is less likely to be a takeover target although takeover synergy in successful takeovers is higher our results suggest that takeovers may play a role in explaining high contemporaneous stock prices in the presence of high divergence of investor opinion the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

the perils of taylor rules abstract since john taylor s 1993 carnegie rochester conf ser publ policy39 195 214 seminal paper a large literature has argued that active interest rate feedback rules that is rules that respond to increases in inflation with a more than one for one increase in the nominal interest rate are stabilizing in this paper we argue that once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account active interest rate feedback rules can easily lead to unexpected consequences specifically we show that even if the steady state at which monetary policy is active is locally the unique equilibrium typically there exist an infinite number of equilibrium trajectories originating arbitrarily close to that steady state that converge to a liquidity trap that is a steady state in which the nominal interest rate is near zero and inflation is possibly negative journal of economic literature classification numbers e52 e31 e63

measuring investors opinion divergence numerous proxies for divergence of investors opinions have been suggested in the empirical accounting and finance literatures i offer a new proxy constructed from proprietary limit order and market order data this allows me to capture additional information on investors private valuations proxies from the extant literature based on publicly available data do not contain such information given my new measure i ask which of the extant proxies correlates best with it in my regression analysis unexplained volume is the best proxy for opinion divergence conditioning on various firm specific and order specific characteristics generally does not change this conclusion the main exception is the sample of firms without ibes forecast dispersion data for which bid ask spread is the best proxy for opinion divergence factor analysis also suggests that unexplained volume is the preferred proxy for opinion divergence

monetary policy in a low inflation environment developing a state contingent price level target a number of academic studies find that either price level targeting or temporary above average inflation are nearly optimal policies to address a liquidity trap crisis still central bankers and the public generally question whether even a temporarily higher inflation rate could be beneficial in addressing a liquidity trap or could be consistent with price stability over the longer term at the same time however the federal reserve s projections for high unemployment and low inflation do not seem to be consistent with the best monetary policies to address the fed s dual mandate responsibilities accordingly it is useful to seriously discuss these potentially beneficial alternative policies

career concerns of mutual fund managers we examine the labor market for mutual fund managers using data from 1992 1994 we find that termination is more performance sensitive for younger managers we identify possible implicit incentives created by the termination performance relationship the shape of the termination performance relationship may give younger managers an incentive to avoid unsystematic risk direct effects of portfolio composition may also give younger managers an incentive to herd into popular sectors consistent with these incentives we find that younger managers hold less unsystematic risk and have more conventional portfolios promotion incentives and market responses to managerial turnover are also studied

are small firms less vulnerable to overpriced stock offers we show an inverted u relation between targetiveness probability of being targeted and firm size however this pattern describes stock offers and is more pronounced during hot markets characterized by higher stock valuations for cash offers we find a negative and monotonic relation these contrasting patterns suggest that small firms in the bottom nyse size quartile are less vulnerable to overpriced stock offers in addition we find that the stock acquirers of small targets are less overvalued than those of large targets and that the announcement returns are less negative for stock acquirers of small targets than for those of large targets

incomplete exchange rate pass through and simple monetary policy rules abstract this paper investigates the performance of various monetary policy rules in an open economy with incomplete exchange rate pass through implementing monetary policy through an exchange rate augmented policy rule does not improve social welfare compared to using an optimized taylor rule irrespective of the degree of pass through a direct exchange rate response improves welfare only if the other reaction coefficients on inflation and output are sub optimal however an indirect exchange rate response through a policy reaction to consumer price index cpi inflation rather than to domestic inflation is welfare enhancing this result is independent of whether society values domestic or cpi inflation stabilization

has u s monetary policy changed evidence from drifting coefficients and real time data despite the large amount of empirical research on monetary policy rules there is surprisingly little consensus on the nature or even the existence of changes in the conduct of u s monetary policy three issues appear central to this disagreement 1 the specific type of changes in the policy coefficients 2 the treatment of heteroskedasticity and 3 the real time nature of the data used this paper addresses these issues in the context of forwardlooking taylor rules with drifting coefficients the estimation is based on real time data and accounts for the presence of heteroskedasticity in the policy shock the findings suggest important but gradual changes in the rule coefficients not adequately captured by the usual split sample estimation in contrast to orphanides 2002 2003 i find that the fed s response to the real time forecast of inflation was weak in the second half of the 1970s perhaps not satisfying taylor s principle as suggested by clarida gali and gertler 2000 however the response to inflation was strong before 1973 and gradually regained strength from the early 1980s onward moreover as in orphanides 2003 the fed s response to real activity fell substantially and lastingly during the 1970s

following the leader the relevance of the fed funds rate for inflation targeting countries abstract in a new keynesian model for a small open economy we derive a cpi inflation based taylor rule that implements the flexible price allocation we conclude that in this rule the natural rate of interest should be linked to the foreign interest rate and to domestic productivity shocks this rule ensures that the cpi real rate moves in order to induce movements in consumption that are coherent with the flexible price allocation the empirical evidence shows that inflation targeting central banks respond to movements in the fed funds rate besides reacting to expected cpi inflation and to the domestic output gap this is true for developed and emerging economies furthermore we find that in emerging countries the response to foreign variables is not different from zero as suggested by theory when domestic inflation rather than cpi inflation is introduced in the policy rule

an analysis of value destruction in at t s acquisition of ncr abstract at t s 7 5 billion acquisition of ncr decreased the wealth of at t shareholders by between 3 9 billion and 6 5 billion and resulted in negative synergies of 1 3 to 3 0 billion we find that at t paid a documented 50 million and possibly as much as 500 million to satisfy pooling accounting thus boosting eps by roughly 17 but leaving cash flows unchanged we conclude that at t s decision to acquire ncr in what the market perceived as a value destroying transaction was related at least in part to the 1984 consent decree with the department of justice that led to the break up of at t

security analysts career concerns and herding of earnings forecasts several theories of reputation and herding see e g scharfstein and stein 1990 suggest that herding among agents should vary with career concerns our goal in this paper is to document whether such a link exists in the labor market for security analysts specifically we look at the relationship between an analyst s job tenure a proxy for career concerns and various measures of stock earnings forecast performance we establish the following key results 1 older analysts are more likely to produce earnings forecasts of firms before younger ones 2 their forecasts also deviate more from the consensus forecast than their younger counterparts we argue that these results are consistent with some reputational models of herding we also establish a number of auxiliary findings regarding the relationship between forecast accuracy and frequency of forecast revisions with job tenure

stabilisation policy rational expectations and price level versus inflation targeting a survey we survey literature comparing inflation targeting it and price level targeting pt as macroeconomic stabilisation policies our focus is on new keynesian models and areas that have seen significant developments since ambler s 2009 price level targeting and stabilisation policy a survey journal of economic surveys 23 5 974 997 survey optimal monetary policy the zero lower bound financial frictions and transition costs of adopting a pt regime ambler s conclusion that pt improves social welfare in new keynesian models is fairly robust but we note an interesting split in the literature pt consistently outperforms it in models where policymakers commit to simple taylor type rules but results in favour of pt when policymakers minimise loss functions are overturned with small deviations from the baseline model since the beneficial effects of pt appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy new keynesian we discuss survey and experimental evidence on rational expectations and the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of new keynesian models overall the evidence is not clear cut but we note that new keynesian models can pass formal statistical tests against macro data and that models with rational expectations outperform those with behavioural expectations i e heuristics in direct statistical tests we therefore argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to pt

structural changes in the us economy is there a role for monetary policy this paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in output growth and inflation dynamics in the us we identify a policy shock and a policy rule in at ime varying coefficients var using robust sign restrictions the transmission of policy shocks has been relatively stable the variance of the policy shock has decreased over time but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflation and output growth volatility and persistence we find little evidence of a significant increase in the long run response of the interest rate to inflation a more aggressive inflation policy in the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs

price level targeting and stabilization policy we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study optimal monetary stabilization policy prices are fully flexible and money is essential for trade our main result is that if the central bank pursues a price level target it can control inflation expectations and improve welfare by stabilizing short run shocks to the economy the optimal policy involves smoothing nominal interest rates that effectively smooths consumption across states