banking panics information and rational expectations equilibrium this paper shows that bank runs can be modeled as an equilibrium phenomenon we demonstrate that some aspects of the intuitive story that bank runs start with fears of insolvency of banks can be rigorously modeled if individuals observe long lines at the bank they correctly infer that there is a possibility that the bank is about to fail and precipitate a bank run however bank runs occur even when no one has any adverse information extra market constraints such as suspension of convertibility can prevent bank runs and result in superior allocations banking panics were a recurrent phenomenon in the united states until the 1930s they have re emerged as a source of public concern and much theoretical research recently in this paper we provide an information theoretic rationale for bank runs the traditional story is that contagion is an important aspect of bank runs the idea seems to be that when the general public observes large withdrawals from the banking system fears of insolvency grow resulting in even larger withdrawals of deposits in our model some individuals withdraw because they get information that future returns are likely to be low uninformed individuals observing this also have an incentive to liquidate their investments in addition some individuals need to withdraw deposits for other than informationally based reasons thus if the random realization of such a group of individuals is unusually large then the uninformed individuals will be misled and will precipitate a run on the bank the technology is such that a large volume of withdrawals involves liquidation costs consequently runs on the bank do impose social costs a mechanism that may reduce these costs in our model is to suspend convertibility if withdrawals are high however those individuals who need to withdraw their assets for liquidity reasons are worse off ex post our model provides a rationalization for restrictions in demand deposits that were widespread prior to 1929 friedman and schwartz 7 suggest that restrictions of payments ensured

private information deposit interest rates and the stability of the banking system abstract the regulation of deposit interest rates has received little support from economists the same is true for the original rationale for such regulation that bank competition for deposits generates inherent instability in the banking system this paper develops an adverse selection model of banking in which this rationale is correct moreover in this model instability in the banking system can arise despite the presence of a lender of last resort and despite the absence of any need for deposit insurance however in the world described the regulation of deposit interest rates is shown to be an appropriate response to instability in the banking system finally it is argued that adverse selection models of deposit interest rate determination can confront a number of observed phenomena that are not readily explained in other contexts

hedonic theory bid rents and willingness to pay some extensions of ellickson s results abstract an alternative to ellickson s multinomial logit model of household bids for dwelling units is derived by making use of observable information on the price paid by the winning bidder the alternative specification makes it possible to estimate willingness to pay for housing attributes which cannot be obtained from ellickson s model some methodological issues arising from ellickson s method of grouping households are also examined

neighborhood externality risk and the homeownership status of properties in contrast to corporate and institutional investors single owner occupiers cannot adequately diversify housing investment risk consequently homeownership should be relatively less likely in places with higher housing investment risk using the american housing survey it is documented that neighborhood externality risk a major component of housing investment risk substantially reduces the probability that a housing unit is owner occupied even when controlling for housing type and numerous location and household specific characteristics the effects are quantitatively meaningful and change in change estimates suggest that the effects are causal

the unequal geographic burden of federal taxation in the united states workers in cities offering above average wages cities with high productivity low quality of life or inefficient housing sectors pay 27 percent more in federal taxes than otherwise identical workers in cities offering below average wages according to simulation results taxes lower long run employment levels in high wage areas by 13 percent and land and housing prices by 21 and 5 percent causing locational inefficiencies costing 0 23 percent of income or 28 billion in 2008 employment is shifted from north to south and from urban to rural areas tax deductions index taxes partially to local cost of living improving locational efficiency

a productivity model of city crowdedness abstract population density varies widely across us cities a simple static general equilibrium model suggests that moderate sized differences in cities total factor productivity can account for such variation nevertheless the productivity required to sustain above average population densities considerably exceeds estimates of the increase in productivity caused by such high density in contrast increasing returns to scale may be able to sustain multiple equilibria at below average population densities

what are cities worth land rents local productivity and the total value of amenities abstract this paper models how to use widely available data on wages and housing costs to infer land rents local productivity and the total value of local amenities in the presence of federal taxes and locally produced nontraded goods i apply the model to u s metropolitan areas with the aid of visually intuitive graphs the results improve measures of productivity and feature large differences in land rents wage and housing cost differences across metropolitan areas are accounted for more by productivity than quality of life differences regressions using individual amenities reveal that the most productive and valuable cities are typically coastal sunny mild educated and large

rational herding in financial economics abstract this paper briefly describes recent papers on the economics of rational herding in financial markets some models can predict perfect herding in which rational agents all act alike without any countervailing force such herding typically arises either from direct payoff externalities negative externalities in bank runs positive externalities in the generation of trading liquidity or in information acquisition principal agent problems based on managerial desire to protect or signal reputation or informational learning cascades the paper also provides a few pointers to related literature and suggests issues to be addressed in future research

evaluating theories of bank runs with heterogeneity restrictions this paper empirically tests theories of bank runs we use a structural panel var to extract runs from deposit market data identification exploits cross sectional heterogeneity in deposit insurance we identify bank runs as adverse deposit market supply shocks hitting uninsured banks harder compared to insured conditional on a run we study the behavior of uninsured banks with bad and good fundamentals we find that both experience runs but deposit outflows at the former are more severe panic effects which affect all uninsured deposits alike irrespective of fundamentals dominate in the aggregate insured banks partially absorb the outflow of uninsured deposits

sources of panics evidence from the weekly data abstract we use weekly data 1867 1933 to investigate the sources of banking and financial panics we find that while a panic s exact starting date is unpredictable one can identify environments conducive to panics a lack of liquidity in financial markets seems to be a key source results also reveal the effectiveness of the aldrich vreeland act inelastizing the money supply and shortening the panic of 1914 and suggest that the panic of 1933 may have been caused by a speculative attack on the gold backed us dollar via the banks as opposed to a run on the banks directly

university industry collaboration and firms r d effort abstract this paper investigates the impact of publicly funded university industry collaboration on uk firms r d effort we test the hypotheses that project participation has a positive effect on firms r d expenditure per employee and on their share of r d employment the paper exploits a novel source of data made up of a set of u i projects funded by the uk engineering and physical sciences research council between 1997 and 2007 and firm level data available through the uk office for national statistics we employ propensity score matching to select an appropriate control group of untreated firms on the basis of the probability that they participate to u i partnerships we then estimate the impact of participation on firms r d effort in two points in time via ordinary least squares regression the results show a positive and significant impact on the share of r d employment two years after the end of projects this is also confirmed by a robustness check a positive effect on r d expenditure per employee is found both at the end of the project and two years later these findings are highly relevant for policy given that u i collaboration is among the most frequent policy instruments put in place by local and national policy makers to foster pre competitive research and firms r d activities

family labor supply and asset returns abstract we study how shocks to wages and asset prices affect consumption and labor supply decisions of two earner households in a life cycle framework with housing and flexible preferences we provide a micro foundation of the wealth effects on consumption and labor supply we find evidence for non separability between non durable consumption housing services and hours of work the results also highlight the importance of family labor supply in understanding how households respond to shocks to financial and housing markets

distinguishing panics and information based bank runs welfare and policy implications in this paper we contrast panics and information based bank runs in an effort to provide a robust and empirically plausible model of how bank runs are triggered the model of information based runs is characterized by two sided asymmetric information the bank cannot observe the true liquidity needs of the depositors while depositors are asymmetrically informed about bank asset quality we also examine the relative degrees of risk sharing provided by bank deposit contracts and traded equity contracts we show that the choice of deposit or equity depends on the attributes of and information about the underlying investment returns

split sample instrumental variables estimates of the return to schooling this article reevaluates recent instrumental variables iv estimates of the returns to schooling in light of the fact that two stage least squares is biased in the same direction as ordinary least squares ols even in very large samples we propose a split sample instrumental variables ssiv estimator that is not biased toward ols ssiv uses one half of a sample to estimate parameters of the first stage equation estimated first stage parameters are then used to construct fitted values and second stage parameter estimates in the other half sample ssiv is biased toward 0 but this bias can be corrected the splt sample estimators confirm and reinforce some previous findings on the returns to schooling but fail to confirm others

bank runs as an equilibrium phenomenon a standard demand deposit contract in which individuals are entitled to their full deposit at any time provided the bank is solvent is analyzed in a context in which there are no exogenous events on which agents condition their behavior and a unique equilibrium involving a bank run with positive probability is shown to exist

financing banking crises abstract a model of strategic asset pricing is used to investigate the increase in interest rates and the formation of cash syndicates that can occur during privately financed banking crises results produced help to explain the federal reserve system s creation following the panic of 1907 and to clarify the fed s role in financing contemporary banking crises

the impact of academic patenting on university research and its transfer abstract this paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of academic patenting on publishing and knowledge transfer drawing upon two separate surveys of academics and their cv information we provide empirical evidence for uk academics in engineering and physical sciences the contribution of this paper is two fold first our findings show that the intensity of academic patenting complements publishing up to a certain level of patenting output after which we find evidence of a substitution effect we also find weak evidence of important differences across scientific fields with the more basic oriented fields showing indications of a crowding out effect second our analysis of the potential impact of patenting on knowledge transfer shows a positive correlation between the stock of patents and engagement in knowledge transfer channels however we find that a substitution effect sets in indicating an inverted u shaped relationship between patenting and several knowledge transfer channels

housing demand and community choice an empirical analysis abstract housing demand reflects the household s simultaneous choice of the neighborhood whether to own or rent the dwelling and the quantity of housing services demanded existing literature emphasizes the final two factors but overlooks the choice of community this paper develops an econometric model that incorporates all three components and then estimates this model using a sample of tampa florida households incorporating community choice increases the price elasticity of demand and reduces the differential between white and comparable nonwhite households the results are robust to the inclusion of permanent income and taxes

an alternative test of the hedonic theory of housing markets abstract in this paper the hedonic theory of housing markets is used to generate a multinomial logit model of household behavior in an urban housing market application of hedonic theory to housing markets is by now fairly familiar and a link to multinomial logit has also been established however by emphasizing more heavily the bid price interpretation of hedonic theory this paper develops a new connection to econometric estimation that essentially involves running the usual logit equations in reverse one advantage of this approach is that the link between the logit equations and hedonic theory involves bid price rather than utility functions and this in turn permits the empirical results to be given an extremely clear interpretation furthermore in contrast to the standard logit model the extreme value distribution required to justify the estimation technique emerges endogenously as part of the analysis

bank runs the deposit currency ratio and the interest rate abstract this paper provides a model of an economy with a banking system which is subject to bank runs the model is then used to explain the rise in short term interest rates during bank runs and the fall in the deposit currency ratio in anticipation of possible runs

the demand for housing theoretical considerations abstract this paper focuses on housing s dual roles of consumption good and investment asset and studies its intertemporal demand in a multi period model with uncertainty while the existence of a competitive equilibrium is proved the emphasis is on the derivation of comparative statics properties the results admit an upward sloping own demand curve for housing which is consistent with observation in some housing markets additional restrictions which ensure a downward sloping housing demand function are then developed these restrictions indicate that the assumptions typically employed in the literature on housing demand are unnecessarily restrictive journal of economic literature classification numbers r21 d11 d91

occupational mobility and the distribution of occupational success among young men interpretation of the distribution of occupational success depends crucially on an understanding of the process of mobility if the holders of low paying jobs this year are just as likely as anyone else to hold good jobs next year then the lower tail of the earnings distribution is not a matter of great social concern further if the distribution of success is primarily determined by a random process the prospects for a significant reduction in the inequality of earnings are unfavorable on the other hand high mobility in the short run may conceal systematic stratification of the labor force it may be that the same individuals spend most of their time in the worst jobs if so luck and random events may play a small role in the distribution of well being inequality may be a major issue and the elimination of stratification may hold out the promise of an important reduction in inequality simple tabulation of distributions of success and of mobility among categories of success cannot answer the basic question of the role of stratification in this paper we develop a model and statistical method for studying mobility and relating it to characteristics upon which stratification may be based our study rests on annual interviews conducted from 1966 through 1969 with about 3 000 white males born between 1942 and 1952 1 we find that mobility is closely related to personal characteristics especially intelligence and education men with high iqs and extensive education are more likely to move to high paying jobs and are more likely to remain in them nevertheless random events dominate the distribution of occupational success in the short run our results strongly support the finding of christopher jencks and his collaborators that redistribution of the determinants of earnings would do almost nothing to reduce the observed inequality of annual earnings

an econometric model of housing price permanent income tenure choice and housing demand abstract this paper addresses the determination of housing price permanent income tenure choice and housing demand full housing demand elasticities incorporate the interactive effects among the four stages of the model price and income have major effects in the tenure choice equation sociodemographic variables such as age have complex effects that may be lost in simpler forms of estimation

bank runs and currency run in a system without a safety net argentina and the tequila shock abstract this paper tests the random withdrawals vs informed based theories of bank runs in the context of the bank panic that took place in argentina as a consequence of the mexican devaluation of december 20 1994 this evidence is unique in several ways it is the case of a contemporary banking system with virtually no explicit safety net a currency board with no deposit insurance scheme and a case in which the bank runs were triggered by a currency run the findings of the paper provide support to the informed based theories and show that depositors are concerned with the impact of a currency run on bank solvency

the central banking role of clearinghouse associations most of this clearinghouse currency was illegal but no one thought of prosecuting or interfering with its issuers as practically all of it bore the words payable only through the clearing house its holders could not demand payment for it in cash in plain language it was an inconvertible paper money issued without the sanction of law yet necessitated by conditions for which our banking laws did not provide when banks were being run upon and legal money had disappeared in hoards in default of any legal means of relief it worked effectively and doubtlessly prevented multitudes of bankruptcies which otherwise would have occurred andrew 1908b p 516

reconsidering the bayh dole act and the current university invention ownership model abstract the bayh dole act of 1980 provided u s universities with the right to commercialize employees inventions made while engaged in government funded research this paper argues that the current university invention ownership model in which universities maintain de jure ownership of inventions is not optimal either in terms of economic efficiency or for advancing the social interest of rapidly commercializing technology and encouraging entrepreneurship we argue that this model is plagued by ineffective incentives information asymmetries and contradictory motivations for the university the inventors potential licensees and university technology licensing offices tlos these structural uncertainties can lead to delays in licensing misaligned incentives among parties and obstacles to the flow of scientific information and the materials necessary for scientific progress the institutional arrangements within which tlos are embedded have encouraged some of them to become revenue maximizers rather than facilitators of technology dissemination for the good of the entire society we suggest two alternative invention commercialization models as superior alternatives the first alternative is to vest ownership with the inventor who could choose the commercialization path for the invention for this privilege the inventor would provide the university an ownership stake in any returns to the invention the inventor would be free to contract with the university tlo or any other entity that might assist in commercialization the second alternative is to make all inventions immediately publicly available through a public domain strategy or through a requirement that all inventions be licensed non exclusively both alternatives would address the current dysfunctional arrangements in university technology commercialization

homeownership and investment in risky assets abstract this paper uses the 1989 survey of consumer finances to show that committed expenditures related to homeownership cause agents to hold their financial assets in a safe form this work follows theoretical results by fratantoni 5 which show that the mortgage commitment leads to reduced risky asset holding and empirical results by guisoet al 7 which show that agents with uncertain labor income hold fewer risky assets i find that doubling the median homeowner s mortgage payment income ratio leads to a 15 decrease in the risky share

liquidity banking and bank failures a multiperiod model with risk neutral agents is constructed in which a liquidity problem arises in an equilibrium with decentralized tradin g in capital which banking institutions are able to alleviate depos it contracts provide for early withdrawal banks hold debt and agent s who borrow from banks hold compensating balances institutional col lapse or a state of the world when bank failures are experienced is associated with a high demand for liquidity low output and a lower than average level of welfare bank failure is symptomatic of a part icular state of endowments preferences and technology and governme nt intervention is undesirable copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

neighbourhood effects and housing demand in this paper we estimate a model of housing demand with neighborhood eects we exploit special features of the national sample of the american housing survey and properties of housing markets that allow us to create natural instruments and therefore identify the impact of social interactions we find evidence of both endogenous and contextual neighborhood eects we report two alternative sets of estimates for neighborhood eects that dier in terms of the instruments we use for estimating the model when the endogenous neighborhood eect is large the respective contextual eects are weak and vice versa the elasticity of housing demand with respect to the mean of the neighbors housing demands the endogenous eect ranges from 0 19 to 0 66 and is generally very significant the contextual eects are also very significant a key such eect the elasticity with respect to the mean of neighbors permanent incomes ranges from 0 17 to 0 54

university patenting and its effects on academic research the emerging european evidence this paper surveys the existing fragmentary data on the growth of university owned patents and university invented patents in europe we find evidence that university patenting is growing but this phenomenon remains heterogeneous across countries and disciplines we found some evidence that university licensing is not profitable for most universities although some do succeed in attracting substantial additional revenues this might be due to the fact that patents and publications tend to go hand in hand in a dynamic setting however we fear that the increase in university patenting exacerbates differences across universities in terms of financial resources and research outcome

bank panics suspensions and geography some notes on the contagion of fear in banking bank panics suspensions and geography some notes on the contagion of fear in banking recent attempts to understand bank panics tend to emphasize informational asymmetries or the possibilities of multiple equilibria such approaches stand in contrast to historical research that emphasizes legal factors influencing the organization of the banking system this paper constructs a model of a banking system operating under regulations similar to those in effect under the national banking system and in which information is complete in all other respects the model resembles that of diamond and dybvig 1983 the results indicate that given the regulatory environment it would have been surprising if suspensions of convertibility had not recurred periodically i introduction traditional explanations of panics under the national banking system 1863 1913 offered both by scholars and contemporaries stressed three factors 1 limitations on branching created incentives for the development and heavy use of correspondent banking relations 2 regulations favored holding interbank deposits with a relatively small group of new york banks this concentrated the reserves of the banking system in one location guaranteeing that heavy withdrawals of interbank balances from any source would affect new york banks and through them the entire banking system 3 legal restrictions prevented banks especially those holding large interbank deposits from adjusting interest rates in order to protect those deposits during periods of heavy withdrawal demand 1 this traditional explanation of the periodic recurrence of panics which emphasizes the organization of the banking system stands in marked contrast to more recent theories of panics which tend to focus on various informational asymmetries between banks and depositors 2 most of the recent literature on panics follows diamond and dybvig 1983 in modelling banks as a mechanism for pooling liquidity risks faced by depositors more specifically potential depositors can invest in the same primary assets available to banks however primary assets are costly to liquidate and depositors face random future liquidity needs at the time they make their investment decisions in such a framework the role of banks is to create and issue liabilities more liquid than their assets this activity provides insurance to depositors against random liquidity needs in diamond and dybvig s paper exogenous shocks to agents liquidity preference motivate withdrawal demand contracts between banks and depositors allow agents with liquidity needs to liquidate deposits at a lower cost than would be incurred in liquidating the primary asset however for each withdrawal due to inopportune liquidity needs a bank must liquidate primary assets and bear these costs hence the provision of liquidity by banks is feasible only if withdrawal demand is restricted to those actually requiring liquidity in the model of diamond and dybvig 3 panics can occur because the liquidity needs of individuals are private information in particular banks are assumed to be unable to observe whether any individual needs liquidity and hence cannot limit payments to individuals who actually need to withdraw funds banks are thus subject to runs as the result of self fulfilling prophecies if all depositors fear a run and they all seek to withdraw it will not be feasible for the banking system to provide liquidity to all of them thus the banking system must either suspend payments or be rendered insolvent of course a crucial component of this reasoning is that banks cannot distinguish legitimate from panic motivated withdrawals and hence cannot ration funds on this basis this model of panics provides no role for the organization of the banking system it therefore suggests that different countries or different regulatory regimes within the same country should have similar histories with respect to panics so long as they had similar deposit insurance schemes and similarly behaving lenders of last resort

new hedonic estimates of regional constant quality house prices abstract this paper employs a new national data set to estimate constant quality dwelling prices for four regions of the country the data set collected by the national association of realtors provides sale prices locations and characteristics of 5581 dwellings sold during the years 1986 1992 inclusive the paper provides the first national hedonic analysis based upon transaction prices of sample dwellings the estimated equation implies that more than half of dwelling price increases during the period resulted from quality improvements in dwellings

the reconstruction finance corporation the gold standard and the banking panic of 1933 the banking crisis of 1933 which forced a national holiday closing the entire u s financial system is often blamed on either publication of the names of banks borrowing from the reconstruction finance corporation a speculative run on the gold backed dollar due to fears that president elect roosevelt would devalue the currency or both evidence presented here indicates that neither factor started the final banking crisis of the depression the michigan bank holiday ignited the panic resulting in a series of bank holidays and a run on the dollar this chain of events toppled the united states financial system

the capital gains effect in the demand for housing abstract recent concerns about speculation in housing markets have underscored the fact that housing is not only a consumption good but is also an investment asset with uncertain potential to generate capital gains we present a theoretical model of housing demand under uncertainty that captures these dual characteristics emphasis is placed on the formulation of expectations about housing prices and the role that potential capital gains may play in the demand for owner occupied housing services the model is then taken to the data econometric analysis of data from florida a state known for periodically dynamic housing markets is carried out we find that an increase in housing prices increases the demand for owner occupied housing services thus housing s role as investment asset with its potential for capital gains dominates its role as consumption good which alone would produce a downward sloping own demand curve rather than one which is upward sloping our theoretical model fully rationalizes this econometric result

interactive property valuations this paper estimates models of social interactions within residential neighborhoods using data on neighborhood clusters for standard metropolitan areas in the united states from the american housing survey for 1985 and 1989 it examines eects of social interactions in the form of reaction functions for homeowners valuation of their properties at the level of the immediate residential neighborhood with neighborhoods consisting of a randomly chosen dwelling unit and about ten nearest neighbors the paper identifies the eect of endogenous social interactions to be significant and large ranging from 0 587 to 0 770 and much more important then the dynamic autoregressive structure of the model when both variables are present and both are significant the interactive regressions that it reports improve upon commonly used hedonic regressions as well the paper provides empirical support for the notion common in the real estate world of the importance of neighboring properties in property valuations

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

health care insurance and the contract choice effect i introduction it is well known that consumers anticipate some aspects of their medical care consumption examples include obstetrical services dental procedures vision care outpatient mental health services and minor elective surgery so that medical care demand anticipation influences the choice of health insurance coverage in turn the characteristics of the chosen plan set the degree of cost sharing and therefore the net price that the consumer faces which is given by the percentage of cost sharing times the gross price of medical care this net price influences the consumer s actual demand for the broad range of medical services 1 in this way insurance choice is influenced by particular anticipated utilization and actual general utilization is influenced by the selected insurance plan health insurance choice and medical service demand are interdependent although this interdependence has been noted in the literature few researchers have attempted to model it 2 and none have explicated its implications for consumer demand behavior and the ensuing econometric analysis of medical care demand we do so in this article using an intertemporal model that highlights the role of expectations in the insurance choice medical care demand interaction under uncertainty we show that the medical care demand response to a change in its gross price consists of two separate components the standard neoclassical demand effect and an insurance contract choice effect when the gross price of medical care changes the net price to the consumer is altered for a fixed degree of cost sharing however a change in the gross price can prompt a change in the intended choice of health plan causing a change in the degree of cost sharing for example if the gross price of medical care rises our consumer may choose to pay a higher premium for an insurance policy that is more generous one that has a lower cost sharing percentage in this case the net price which first increased exogenously would now decrease endogenously the health insurance contract choice effect can play an important role in determining the consumer s observable demand response to a change in the gross price of medical care the standard medical care demand curve could be less responsive because of it and econometric studies of the price elasticity of medical care that ignore it which is typically the case in the literature would produce estimates that are erroneous furthermore although somewhat remote the contract choice effect opens the door to a perverse outcome a medical care demand curve that is upward sloping this could occur when the contract choice effect is very strong ii the model we consider an individual consumer who faces a single period two stage planning problem in the first stage the consumer makes an ex ante choice of insurance plan at the time this choice is made he knows his income for the period all prices including the gross price of medical care and his current health status however he is uncertain about his future health status in the second stage during which health status uncertainty is resolved the consumer makes ex post decisions about purchases of medical care and other goods in the first stage the consumer chooses from a variety of health insurance policies with varying characteristics the simplest has a deductible of some amount e g 250 per person 750 per family a percentage cost share e g consumer pays 20 the insurance provider 80 of each episode and a cap on total dollar outlay beyond which the insurer pays 100 of remaining expenses other policies place more emphasis on co payments e g consumer pays 20 to a physician for an office visit the insurance provider pays the balance of the negotiated cost and some policies combine all of these elements co pays for office visits 20 80 cost shares for hospital stays different mixes of percentage cost shares depending on services that are out of network in network but not preferred provider and so on

university industry relations and research group production is there a bidirectional relationship this study aims to analyze if there is a bidirectional relationship between university industry collaboration and scientific production the results from a sample of 137 research groups at a university in an ultra peripheral region reveal the existence of this bidirectional relationship scientific production has a positive influence on university industry relations thus when the articles published by the research groups increase the contracts between university and industry also increase moreover the results reflect a nonlinear relationship between contracts and scientific production university industry relations are complementary to scientific production up to a certain level and after that point there is a substitution effect the results also show the moderating effect of the knowledge area on this relationship because groups belonging to technology oriented areas have higher scientific production in response to university industry relations

neighborhood income distributions this paper studies the distribution of income within neighborhoods and contrasts it with the national income distribution it relies on a unique feature of the american housing survey whose 1985 1989 and 1993 waves of interviews provide data for small residential neighborhoods these consist of a dwelling unit and up to ten of its nearest neighbors most previous work on neighborhoods has used information for much larger groupings of the population such as census tracts the paper employs a variety of parametric and nonparametric econometric tools to study income sorting across us residential neighborhoods it documents the patterns of dependence among neighbors income and imperfect sorting with moderate but very significant correlation among incomes of neighbors and of considerable income mixing in u s neighborhoods

optimal prediction of cyclical downturns abstract in the conventional way of visualizing economic time series the prediction problem does not dichotomize into predicting turning points and predicting conditional means yet the prediction of turning points has always been considered a separate issue in business cycle literature the paper first discusses these issues and then describes a model where the prediction of turning points does separate from the prediction of conditional means using the model an optimal way of predicting turning points is derived and applied to u s data the paper uses time series methodology and the theory of optimal stopping times

financial panics the seasonality of the nominal interest rate and the founding of the fed after the founding of the fed in 1914 the frequency of financial panics and the size of the seasonal movements in nominal interest ratesboth declined substantially this paper establishes that the fed by carrying out the seasonal open market policy that eliminated the seasonal in nominal interest rates caused the decrease in the frequency of panics since seasonal movements are anticipated and financial panics are probably real events the results show that an anticipated monetary policy had real effects on the economy copyright 1986 by american economic association

contagion and bank failures during the great depression the june 1932 chicago banking panic the authors examine the social costs of asymmetric information induced bank panics in an environment without government deposit insurance their case study is the chicago bank panic of june 1932 the authors compare the ex ante characteristics of panic failures and panic survivors despite temporary confusion about bank asset quality on the part of depositors during the panic which was associated with widespread depositor runs and bank stock price declines the panic did not produce significant social costs in terms of failures among solvent banks copyright 1997 by american economic association