inventories and upstream gasoline price dynamics abstract this paper sheds new light on the asymmetric dynamics in upstream u s gasoline prices the model is based on pindyck s inventory model of commodity price dynamics we show that asymmetry in gasoline price dynamics is caused by changes in the net marginal convenience yield higher costs of marketing and storage lead to rising gasoline prices whereas a drop in these costs lowers gasoline prices the former effect is stronger this indicates asymmetric dynamics we also analyze the asymmetry across the sample by analyzing recursive and rolling regressions

the demand for energy cross country evidence using the florida model abstract income and own price elasticities of demand for energy for 51 countries in 1980 are presented based on pooled estimates from an 11 good demand system estimated with the florida model results indicate income elasticities of demand for energy are significantly larger than unitary for all countries and own price elasticities of demand for energy range between 0 8 and 1 0

a panel cointegration analysis of the demand for oil in the middle east this article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long run income and price elasticities for oil in the middle east the results for the panel indicate that demand for oil is highly price inelastic and slightly income elastic in the middle east there is considerable variation in the results for the income variable across countries with the coefficient on the income variable statistically insignificant for several countries the coefficient on the price variable is statistically significant in all cases with the expected sign and the price elasticity is uniformly low while the results for the income variable differ across countries the results for the panel as a whole suggest that the demand for oil in the middle east is being driven largely by strong economic growth while consumers are largely insensitive to price changes

analysis of energy intensity in japan this study discusses the causes of the increase in japan s energy intensity defined as energy consumption divided by gdp since the early 1990s the significant reduction in japan s energy intensity ceased in the early 1980s and has even slightly increased since the early 1990s indicating that japan seemingly stopped taking aggressive action to improve energy use however further analysis at prefecture level and sector level provides additional insight on energy intensity trends to analyze the causes of the increase in japan s energy intensity energy intensity is decomposed into energy efficiency improvements in energy efficiency and energy activity structural changes from the secondary sector to the tertiary sector of the economy our result indicates that the non uniform energy intensity trends between prefectures are attributed to a high variability in energy efficiency at sector level we estimate the income elasticity of energy consumption in each sector and find that a structural change in energy consumption behaviors occurred in all sectors at different time points the industrial sector and commercial sector became less energy efficient after 1981 and 1988 respectively which is presumably responsible for the deterioration of japan s energy intensity since the early 1990s

the demand for energy evidence from a cross country demand system abstract some new evidence on the income own price elasticities of demand for energy consumption by consumers is presented estimates are derived from a complete system of cross country demand equations with energy being one of the commodities considered

oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases this paper analyzes the effect of volatility in oil prices on the degree of asymmetry in the response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases several time series measures of the asymmetry between the responses of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases and several measures of the oil price volatility are constructed in all models the degree of asymmetry in gasoline prices declines with an increase in oil price volatility the results support the oligopolistic coordination theory as a likely explanation of the observed asymmetry and are not consistent with the standard search theory and the search theory with bayesian updating

short run energy economy interactions in egypt abstract this paper discusses the short run adjustment mechanism of the egyptian economy to changes in the domestic price of oil the effects of oil price increases have been analysed in the framework of a short run macroeconomic model with an explicit treatment of energy the results suggest that a reduction in petroleum use induced by a rise in the price of oil will impose difficult adjustment problems for the economy in the short run in terms of increase in inflation fall in the share of wage income and sharp output losses the analysis also indicates that energy demand management through appropriate petroleum pricing strategy cannot bring about desirable impacts on the economy unless efforts are made to reduce cost pressures originating from other energy sectors

fuel consumption for road transport in the usa abstract this study provides both a historical analysis of fuel demand for road transport and an example of using econometric results for projections fuel consumption by all motor vehicles in the usa has been analysed by splitting total demand into passenger car truck and other demands distance travelled and fuel efficiency equations have been estimated for both the passenger car fleet and trucks an essentially five equation model has been constructed and used to simulate likely fuel demand patterns up to 1990

causes for an asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products we revisit the issue of asymmetries in the relation between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products in the united states an econometric analysis of monthly data indicates that the asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and motor gasoline is generated by refinery utilization rates and inventory behavior the asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and home heating oil probably is generated by contractual arrangements between retailers and consumers together these results imply that price asymmetries may be generated by efficient markets under these conditions there is little justification for policy interventions to reduce or eliminate price asymmetries in motor gasoline and home heating oil markets

stability of us petroleum refinery response to relative product prices abstract the stability of the response of petrol s share of petroleum product mix to changes in petroleum product prices is investigated in this paper by using the cooley and prescott varying parameter technique on us data a significant response to changes in product prices is found when the price of petrol increased by 1 its share of product mix increased by over 0 08 while increases in residual and distillate fuel oil prices decreased petrol s share this response was found to be stable from 1936 to 1976 with the war years excluded thus the usa with ample cracking and downstream conversion capacity has been able to respond consistently to the variations in product prices although the model proved stable less precise and less elastic estimates when the period 1974 76 was included suggest less consistent responses under conditions of large price changes heavier crude oils increased unleaded petrol production and crude oil shortages

accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in oecd industrial energy demand abstract this paper explores the way technical progress and improvements in energy efficiency are captured when modelling oecd industrial energy demand the industrial sectors of the developed world involve a number of different practices and processes utilising a range of different technologies consequently given the derived demand nature of energy it is vital when modelling industrial energy demand that the impact of technical progress is appropriately captured however the energy economics literature does not give a clear guide on how this can be achieved one strand suggests that technical progress is endogenous via asymmetric price responses whereas another strand suggests that it is exogenous more recently it has been suggested that potentially there is a role for both endogenous technical progress and exogenous technical progress and consequently the general model should be specified accordingly this paper therefore attempts to model oecd industrial energy demand using annual time series data over the period 1962 2010 for 15 oecd countries using the structural time series model framework the general specifications allow for both asymmetric price responses for technical progress to impact endogenously and an underlying energy demand trend for technical progress and other factors to impact exogenously but in a non linear way the results show that almost all of the preferred models for oecd industrial energy demand incorporate both a stochastic underlying energy demand trend and asymmetric price responses this gives estimated long run income elasticities in the range of 0 34 to 0 96 estimated long run price maximum elasticities in the range of 0 06 to 1 22 estimated long run price recovery elasticities in the range of 0 00 to 0 27 and estimated long run price cut elasticities in the range of 0 00 to 0 18 furthermore the analysis suggests that when modelling industrial energy demand there is a place for endogenous technical progress and an exogenous underlying energy demand trend consequently it is argued that any modelling strategy should start by including both and only imposed restrictions if accepted by the data

implied elasticities in some uk energy projections abstract this paper presents some estimates of price and income elasticities for the demand for total delivered energy to final users in the uk it compares these with the elasticities implicit in three energy projections for the uk and finds that the implicit elasticities in official projections are not obviously consistent with recent experience while the price elasticity implicit in an unofficial low energy projection is not obviously implausible these tentative but important conclusions are not in any way weakened by looking at other estimates

demand for gasoline in kuwait an empirical analysis using cointegration techniques abstract this paper estimates the demand for gasoline in kuwait for the period 1970 1989 using a cointegration and error correction model ecm it is found that gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run and while it is elastic in the long run gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run this suggests that gasoline demand response to income changes is higher in the long run than in the short run furthermore gasoline consumption adjusts towards its long run level with about 52 of the adjustment occurring in the first year

panel data modelling and the tax spend controversy in the euro zone this article attempts to differentiate between the debatable tax and spend spend and tax fiscal synchronization and institutional separation hypotheses in order to explore empirically the interplay between public expenditures and public revenues in the economic and monetary union emu member states for this purpose panel data models are derived to test the validity of the four hypotheses in emu countries a notable characteristic of this article is that the four hypotheses are tested by dividing emu countries into various subgroups and using disaggregated data for government expenditures and revenues seeking for the robustness of the empirical evidence the panel data methods of generalized two stage least squares gtsls and generalized method of moments gmm are accordingly applied to identify the relationship between public outlays and taxation receipts gtsls and gmm results strongly support the fiscal synchronization hypothesis implying that budget decision making is significantly influenced b

income and price elasticities of energy consumption in egypt a time series analysis abstract the purpose of this paper is to provide empirical estimates of the price and income elasticities of energy consumption in egypt it fills an important gap since policy discussion of energy pricing issues has so far been based more on assumptions than on hard evidence the paper shows that the real relative price of energy has been falling steadily since 1972 while per capita energy consumption rose some 50 over the decade 1972 81 evidence produced in this exercise indicates quite clearly that price and income elasticities of energy consumption are significantly much lower than was generally believed

the reliability of aggregate energy demand functions an application of statistical specification error tests abstract the paper examines the unbiasedness and efficiency of various energy elasticity estimates by means of statistical specification error tests the model selection procedure is applied to energy consumption data of eight industrialized countries it is found that models which describe dynamic behaviour by including the lagged dependent variable among the regressors are most frequently accepted and that long term income effects are important for all countries strong differences among countries prevail concerning the appropriateness of including a time trend elasticities derived from accepted models differ considerably among countries

short and long run elasticities in energy demand a cointegration approach abstract short and long run energy demand elasticities are estimated on danish annual data for 1948 1990 energy consumption the real price of energy and real gdp appear to be non stationary variables cointegration and error correction methods are therefore applied all estimated parameters have the expected signs and magnitudes and no evidence is found of a structural break in energy demand caused by the increases in real energy prices since 1973 74

impact of higher energy prices on wage rates return to capital energy intensity and productivity a regional profit specification abstract to take account of the interaction between energy and the aggregate economy a simple neoclassical profit maximizing model is econometrically estimated for the province of ontario canada using this value added specification permits the easy quantification of the impact of higher energy prices on the energy gdp ratio labour productivity and the factor income of labour and capital an empirical evaluation of this profit formulation reveals that rising energy prices have caused all three of these impacts to be depressed significantly particularly in the late 1970s

the relationship between energy demand and real gdp growth rate the role of price asymmetries and spatial externalities within 34 countries across the globe abstract the aim of this paper is to empirically explore the relationship between energy demand and real gross domestic product gdp growth and to investigate the role of regional externalities on per capita final energy consumption fec in 34 countries during the period from 2005 to 2013 the paper utilizes a dynamic panel generalized method of moments dpggm approach and spatial econometric techniques in order to analyse the effect of real gdp growth rate on fec through an error correction model ecm and to examine clustered patterns of energy consumption the results show that a the demand is elastic both in the industrial and the household services sectors b electricity and natural gas are demand substitutes c the relationship between real gdp growth rate and per capita energy consumption exhibits an inverted u shape for all the sample countries under scrutiny 34 countries eurozone and eu28 but not for all the employed sectors of the economy d price electricity and gas and gdp growth asymmetries are supported from the employed parametric tests and e distance does not affect per capita fec but economic neighbours have a strong positive effect

state gasoline consumption in the usa an econometric analysis abstract this paper examines the determinants of state gasoline consumption per household in the usa using pooled time series cross section data for the period 1966 1980 it was found that gasoline price fuel efficiency of vehicle stock percentage of population in metropolitan areas and non automobile transport modes have negative effects on consumption while per capita income number of vehicles non agricultural employment per household age 18 44 warm weather visits by out of state automobiles and share of buses and trucks have positive effects on consumption holding constant the size of vehicle stock and its fuel efficiency characteristics the short run price elasticity of gasoline was found to be 0 321 for the period 1966 1973 and 0 106 for the period 1974 1980 it was also found that gasoline demand experienced a temporary shift both in the intercept and in the price coefficient during the shortages of 1974 and 1979 and had undergone a permanent shift in the same parameters during the post embargo period

interfuel competition in the industrial sector of seven oecd countries abstract the purpose of this article is to present an analysis of interfuel substitution in the industrial sector of seven major oecd countries the united states canada japan germany france the united kingdom and italy over the 1960 1993 period translog models are used to provide estimates of price elasticities from annual data for each country results outline the weakness of price elasticities and changes in behaviour over the last 35 years and show evidence of asymmetric effects since the collapse of oil prices in 1986 substitution has stopped industrial energy demand and oil consumption have stagnated interfuel substitution is widely induced by events other than relative price changes energy policy political and institutional constraints changes in economic activity characteristics within individual country sectors

fuel tourism in border regions the case of switzerland this paper explores the issue of fuel tourism in switzerland for the period 1985 1997 a panel data model for the border regions of switzerland italy france and germany is estimated the results show a significant impact of the gasoline price differential on demand suggesting that a decrease of 10 in the swiss gasoline price leads to an increase in demand in the border areas of nearly 17 5 it is shown that fuel tourism accounted for about 9 of overall gasoline sales in the three regions during the period 1985 1997 and that the recently proposed swiss co2 tax might given current conditions eliminate net fuel tourism

on energy coefficients and ratios abstract this paper examines the methodological issues of the debates surrounding the problem of measuring energy consumption and the use of the concept of energy coefficients it also investigates the brookes hypothesis of a development effect on energy consumption the results suggest that when energy consumption is appropriately measured the energy coefficients are very consistent and fall steadily from high values tending asymptotically to one

careerism committee assignments and the electoral connection most scholars agree that members of congress are strongly motivated by their desire for reelection this assumption implies that members of congress adopt institutions rules and norms of behavior in part to serve their electoral interests direct tests of the electoral connection are rare however because significant exogenous changes in the electoral environment are difficult to identify we develop and test an electoral rationale for the norm of committee assignment property rights we examine committee tenure patterns before and after a major exogenous change in the electoral system the states rapid adoption of australian ballot laws in the early 1890s the ballot changes we argue induced new personal vote electoral incentives which contributed to the adoption of modern congressional institutions such as property rights to committee assignments we demonstrate a marked increase in assignment stability after 1892 by which time a majority of states had put the new ballot laws into force and earlier than previous studies have suggested

a decomposition of the price and income elasticity of the consumer demand for gasoline the authors specify and estimate a model of the short run demand for gasoline which allows them to decompose a consumer s gasoline demand elasticities into miles driven and driving efficiency components their model is estimated using detailed household survey data which allows direct focus on the short run holding both the household s automobile stock and demographic profile fixed among the most interesting results are 1 the data allow interesting insights to be drawn into the interrelationship between these important variables and household behavior with respect to gasoline consumption miles driven and driving efficiency 2 the gasoline demand behavior of one car and multi car households differ significantly from each other evaluated at overall sample means one car households have higher in absolute value price elasticites for gasoline miles driven and fuel efficiency demand conversely multi car households have higher in absolute value total expenditure elasticities for each category 3 for both one car and multi car households roughly 75 of the estimated price elasticity and roughly 80 of the estimated total expenditure elasticity of gasoline demand stem from the miles driven component the estimated fuel efficiency elasticities though smaller than their standard errors indicate that households respond to changes in prices and total expenditure levels not only by changing the number of miles theymore drive but also by changing the efficiency with which they drive them 23 references 3 tables less

the sensitivity of consumption of oil products to price changes an econometric investigation abstract this paper presents a small econometric model of the supply and demand of motor spirit diesel fuel oil and other gas diesel oil by modelling at this level of disaggregation it is possible to identify the dynamic structure of each market and estimate own price and cross price elasticities

anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and gasoline inventory changes on gasoline prices abstract this paper examines the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and gasoline inventory on us gasoline prices we estimate empirical responses to anticipated and unanticipated changes in oil prices and gasoline inventory and show that gasoline price adjustments are faster and stronger for anticipated changes in oil prices and inventory levels than for unanticipated changes furthermore this difference is statistically significant we use these findings to evaluate the cost of adjustment hypothesis suggested by borenstein and shephard 2002 we also find that there is an asymmetry in the effect of gasoline inventory on gasoline and oil prices this finding complements a well known result that positive and negative changes in oil prices have asymmetric effect on gasoline prices

functional form and aggregate energy demand elasticities a nonparametric panel approach for 17 oecd countries this paper studies whether the commonly used linear parametric model for estimating aggregate energy demand is the correct functional specification for the data generating process parametric and n

oil and pump prices testing their asymmetric relationship in a robust way abstract the aim of this study is to provide a novel method to assess whether retail fuel prices respond asymmetrically to changes in the international crude oil prices to do so we consider the whole supply chain we use daily data and we depart from the current practice in the literature that focuses on prices rather we consider the mark ups of both the refineries and retailers hence we show that we first need to assess whether the refineries mark up responds asymmetrically to the international crude oil prices and subsequently whether the retailers mark up shows an asymmetric behaviour relatively to changes in the refined fuel prices focusing in greece as our case study our findings show that greek fuel retailers do not change their mark up behaviour based on changes of the refined fuel price by contrast the asymmetric behaviour is evident in the refineries mark up relatively to changes in the international crude oil prices which is then passed through to the retailers and consumers finally we provide evidence that weekly and monthly data mask any such asymmetric relationship thus we maintain that unless the appropriate data frequency fuel price transformations and the whole supply chain are considered misleading findings could be revealed

demand for gasoline in the gcc an application of pooling and testing procedures the structure of gasoline demand in the gcc countries was analysed the aim was to estimate price and income elasticities both for the short and long run it was found that gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to both price and income for both the short and long run when gcc countries were divided into two groups based on their pricing policies it was found that the group with the free market approach and higher reliance on market forces gave larger price elasticities and smaller income elasticities in both the short run and long run

the empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude oil price formation this paper adopts a novel empirical approach to the crude oil price formation for the purpose of understanding the price reactions of opec member countries to changes in the exchange rate of the us dollar against other major currencies and prices of other members the results are broadly consistent with the view of the absence of a unified opec determined price in the international crude market literature in addition the results also highlight a cross regional dimension of the crude oil market

the committee assignment process as an optimal contracting problem this paper adapts a simple model from the optimal contracting literature to explain the relationship between political parties and non incumbent candidates the model predicts that legislators with a higher opportunity cost of government service will receive better committee assignments using data that spans 12 congresses 97th to 108th i find that when the opportunity cost of senate service is measured by previous occupation freshmen senators with a high opportunity cost for serving those who were lawyers were given good committee assignments while freshmen senators with a low opportunity cost for serving professors and those with relatives already in politics were given worse committee assignments

estimation of elasticities for domestic energy demand in mozambique abstract in mozambique households consume a mix of energy sources to satisfy their needs for lighting and cooking and for wealthier households other domestic necessities such as refrigeration the domestic energy mix depends on the prices of the sources and on the capability of the household to invest in the energy consuming appliances required to satisfy those needs based on data from a household survey carried out in mozambique during 2002 3 iaf this paper calculates the price and the income elasticities of demand for domestic energy using an econometric method developed by deaton the calculations are made for all households at the national level differentiating for urban and rural households and for the northern households of mozambique in the econometric formulation proxies for the ownership of energy appliances per household are used allowing a simple evaluation of the effects of asset ownership on the demand for energy own and cross price elasticities for five individual domestic sources are obtained low grade sources such as firewood and charcoal are less elastic elasticities of 0 41 and 0 28 respectively than candles kerosene and electricity respectively 0 88 0 79 and 0 60 income elasticities are respectively 0 45 0 32 0 93 0 84 and 0 69 placing firewood and charcoal as the less responsive to income variations and candles and kerosene as the most responsive we also comment on the factors influencing domestic energy transition

do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to crude oil price changes the authors test and confirm that retail gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases than to decreases in crude oil prices among the possible sources of this asymmetry are production inventory adjustment lags and market power of some sellers by analyzing price transmission at different points in the distribution chain the authors attempt to shed light on these theories spot prices for generic gasoline show asymmetry in responding to crude oil price changes which may reflect inventory adjustment effects asymmetry also appears in the response of retail prices to wholesale price changes possibly indicating short run market power among retailers

household demand for energy in the uk abstract many demand systems have recently been estimated which treat consumer expenditure on energy as one of a small number of similar expenditure groups this study formulates a simple demand system in which expenditures on individual fuels are also examined and into which the role of the stock of energy using appliances is integrated it goes on to adopt a particular functional form for consumer preferences and then fits the resultant econometric system to quarterly british data

modelling oecd industrial energy demand asymmetric price responses and energy saving technical change abstract the industrial sector embodies a multifaceted production process consequently modelling the derived demand for energy is a complex issue made all the more difficult by the need to capture the effect of technical progress of the capital stock this paper is an exercise in econometric modelling of industrial energy demand using panel data for 15 oecd countries over the period 1962 2003 exploring the issue of energy saving technical change and asymmetric price responses although difficult to determine precisely it is tentatively concluded that the preferred specification for oecd industrial energy demand incorporates asymmetric price responses but not exogenous energy saving technical change

elasticities science or fiction abstract apart from discrepancies in statistical data series the most frequent source of inconsistencies among elasticity estimates is the model specification and the interpretation of empirical results this paper investigates this issue and in particular highlights the misconception that elasticities can scientifically and uniquely be determined by econometric techniques however it is common knowledge that econometric methods constitute a very good tool for analysing the past thus the main message of this exercise is that in the absence of complete specification there are important trends in the elasticities themselves such trends are very crucial and need to be interpreted if elasticities are to be used for forecasting purposes

energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized economies a note abstract in industrialized countries the income elasticity of primary energy demand is not far off unity furthermore it can be argued that there is little use in distinguishing between short and long term income elasticities a long term income elasticity does not have a direct impact on energy demand and hence it is of doubtful use in energy demand projections via an aggregate oecd model it was estimated that the short term impact of prices on primary energy demand is about 0 15 while the long term impact is 0 43 but increasing over time

modelling the energy output ratio abstract the elasticity of energy use with respect to national output has been estimated by various methods with sometimes seemingly contradictory results this study attempts to reconcile these various estimates by modelling the energy output ratio and deriving the corresponding cross section and time series elasticities from this model

asymmetric price adjustments in us gasoline markets impacts of spatial dependence on the rockets and feathers hypothesis gasoline retail prices show sometimes wild asymmetric fluctuations over time we explore the impact of spatial dependence on gasoline retail price formation by using for the first time an asymmetr

the impact of vat introduction on uk residential energy demand an investigation using the cointegration approach abstract over a two year period which started in april 1994 the real price of energy to uk households was expected to rise by 17 5 as a result of value added tax vat introduction the regressive nature of the tax forced the government to limit vat on residential fuel to 8 using a cointegration approach to take account of the non stationarity fuel consumption time series this paper estimates real energy and fuel specific price and income elasticities for the period 1974 1 1994 1 they suggest that natural gas has a positive real energy price elasticity indicating that as real price of energy rises households scrap inefficient heaters and invest in more efficient ones principally natural gas these estimates enable projections to be made of the impact of the introduction of vat and imply a rise in natural gas consumption as a result of the additional vat although at the expense of other less efficient fuels overall residential energy consumption however is unlikely to fall significantly from the tax suggesting that it is an inappropriate way of achieving environmental objectives

the relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in china the pricing mechanism for energy is not in line with the international standards because the energy prices are controlled by the government partly or completely in china chinese government made a lot of efforts to improve the pricing mechanism for energy the relations between chinese energy prices and energy consumption are the foundations to reform the mechanism in this paper the relations between chinese energy consumption and energy prices are researched by cointegration equations impulse response functions granger causality and variance decomposition the cointegration relations among energy prices energy consumption and economic outputs show that higher energy price will decrease energy consumption in chinese industrial sectors but will not reduce the economic output in the long run the cointegration relation between energy price and household energy consumption shows that higher energy price will decrease household energy consumption in the long run and increase it in the short run so chinese government should deepen the reform of pricing mechanism for energy and increase the energy prices reasonably to save energy

price adjustments by a gasoline retail chain we use daily data to examine price responses in the swedish gasoline market to changes in the rotterdam spot price exchange rates and taxes the distribution of price adjustments by a leading retail chain for the period january 1980 to december 1996 is symmetric with no small adjustments an error correction model shows that in the short run prices gradually move towards the long run equilibrium in response to cost shocks there is some evidence that also in the short run prices are stickier downwards than upwards prices respond more rapidly to exchange rate movements than to the spot market price our analysis emphasizes that to fully understand price adjustments it is necessary to examine data sets where the sample frequency at least matches that of price adjustments

elasticities of electricity demand in india abstract the paper examines econometric relationship between electricity consumption and variables like income price of electricity and diesel used in for captive power generation to meet the shortages and reliability of power supply from utilities in five major consumer categories in india these categories are residential commercial agriculture small and medium industries and large industries income and price elasticities of electricity consumption are estimated at the national level for these consumers by pooling data across 19 states spread over 9 years 1985 86 1993 94 the results show that electricity consumption in commercial and large industrial sectors are income elastic 1 while residential agricultural and small and medium industries are income inelastic

cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and gdp empirical evidence from malawi abstract the granger causality gc and error correction ecm techniques were applied on 1970 1999 data for malawi to examine cointegration and causality between electricity consumption kwh and respectively overall gdp agricultural gdp agdp and non agricultural gdp ngdp cointegration was established between kwh and respectively gdp and ngdp but not with agdp the gc results detect bi directional causality between kwh and gdp suggesting that kwh and gdp are jointly determined but one way causality running from ngdp to kwh the ecm results detect causality running one way from gdp also from ngdp to kwh suggesting that a permanent rise in gdp may cause a permanent growth in electricity consumption

the demand for energy in the uk a general equilibrium analysis abstract previous research into the demand for energy has treated economic activity as an explanatory variable however economic theory suggests that economic activity is not independent of energy prices and energy demand we explore the two way causality between energy demand and economic activity in the context of a macroeconometric model of the uk economy inter alia this study suggests that the demand for energy is more price elastic in general equilibrium than it is under the more conventional assumptions of partial equilibrium

macroeconomic conditions and committee re election rates the traditional literature on the link between the macro economy and house elections follows kramer 1971 and assumes all members of the president s party are equally vulnerable to voter wrath caused by economic changes using presidential party return rates from 10 house committees over the time period 1916 1996 i find the impact of economic conditions at the polls varies by committee generally committees that manage money or provide a public good are the most sensitive to economic fluctuations contrastingly members of the public works committee and the rules committee are more insulated from electoral culpability due to economic fluctuations

an aggregate petroleum consumption model abstract this paper presents an aggregative model of us consumption of petroleum and products of a type which might potentially be used to derive short term forecasts of us petroleum consumption and imports the model attempts to separate income and weather related changes from those induced by changes in relative prices with emphasis on the dynamic path of consumption responses to price changes estimation results suggest that there are still significant price effects six years after a change in the relative price of petroleum

accounting for technical progress in aggregate energy demand abstract researchers have not reached a consensus on how to account for technical progress when modeling aggregate energy demand some include a time trend in a dynamic model while others omit the trend in a model that disallows for long run income effects we show that the latter approach can be directly tested as a nested case of the former so that model selection need not be made a priori solely on theoretical grounds using annual data over 1960 1990 we find that long run income effects are not significant however including a time trend improves the model s fit while rendering much more credible long run price elasticities

testing the buchanan wagner hypothesis european evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests according to the buchanan wagnerhypothesis public deficits reduce theperceived price of public goods to thecurrent generation of voters who in turn increase the demands for such socialservices several recent studies haveattempted to test this proposition in thispaper we apply modern time seriestechniques organized around panel unit rootand panel cointegration to draw sharperconclusions from the short time series thatare typically available we find that thereis a long run positive relationship betweengovernment spending and government deficitsfor each country individually as well asfor the panel as a whole this providessupport for the bw hypothesis we alsoanalyze the implications for the relativeproductivity performance of the public andprivate sector the existence of scaleeconomies in the provision of publicservices as well as the extent of crowdingout effects

econometric models of asymmetric price transmission abstract in this paper we review the existing empirical literature on price asymmetries in commodities providing a way to classify and compare different studies that are highly heterogeneous in terms of econometric models type of asymmetries and empirical findings relative to the previous literature this paper is novel in several respects first it presents a detailed and updated survey of the existing empirical contributions on price asymmetries in the transmission mechanism linking input prices to output prices second this paper presents an extension of the traditional distinction between long run and short run asymmetries to new categories of asymmetries such as contemporaneous impact distributed lag effect cumulated impact reaction time equilibrium and momentum equilibrium adjustment path regime effect regime equilibrium adjustment path each empirical study is then critically discussed in the light of this new classification of asymmetries third this paper evaluates the relative merits of the most popular econometric models for price asymmetries namely autoregressive distributed lags partial adjustments error correction models regime switching and vector autoregressive models finally we use the meta regression analysis to investigate whether the results of asymmetry tests are not model invariant and find which additional factors systematically influence the rejection of the null hypothesis of symmetric price adjustment the main results of our survey can be summarized as follows i each econometric model is specialized to capture a subset of asymmetries ii each asymmetry is better investigated by a subset of econometric models iii the general significance of the f test for asymmetric price transmission depends mainly on characteristics of the data dynamic specification of the econometric model and market characteristics overall our empirical findings confirm that asymmetry in all its forms is very likely to occur in a wide range of markets and econometric models

incentives in mixed member electoral systems general election laws candidate selection procedures and cameral rules mixed member systems have been characterized as encouraging politicians to balance the activities that enhance their personal reputations and those of their parties another literature challenges t

road transport energy demand in australia a cointegration approach abstract a cointegration framework is used to examine the short run and long run characteristics of energy demand in the australian road transport sector a lagged endogenous equation based on a partial adjustment process is proposed and estimated results indicate that energy demand output and real energy prices are integrated of order 1 and cointegrated the long run output and price elasticities of energy demand are estimated to be 0 52 and 0 12 respectively causality tests ervealed a bidirectional causality path between output and energy demand and a unidirectional path from energy consumption to prices no other causality paths between output prices and energy demand are detected the short run output elasticity of energy demand is estimated to be 0 25 based on an error correction model the short run price elasticity is found to be insignificant the inertia parameter is 0 48 corresponding to 95 of the demand adjustment occurring after five periods the results are compared with previous findings and the variations are partially attributed to the structural changes in the road transport sector in the 1980s some of which are discussed

a meta analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand a sur approach abstract automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency mileage per car and car ownership this implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency mileage per car and car ownership in this meta analytical study we aim to investigate and explain the variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of gasoline demand a methodological novelty is that we use the linear relationship between the elasticities to develop a meta analytical estimation approach based on a seemingly unrelated regression sur model with cross equation restrictions this approach enables us to combine observations of different elasticities and thus increase our sample size furthermore it allows for a more detailed interpretation of our meta regression results the empirical results of the study demonstrate that the sur approach leads to more precise results i e lower standard errors than a standard meta analytical approach we find that with mean short run and long run price elasticities of 0 34 and 0 84 respectively the demand for gasoline is not very price sensitive both in the short and the long run the impact of a change in the gasoline price on demand is mainly driven by responses in fuel efficiency and mileage per car and to a slightly lesser degree by changes in car ownership furthermore we find that study characteristics relating to the geographic area studied the year of the study the type of data used the time horizon and the functional specification of the demand equation have a significant impact on the estimated value of the price elasticity of gasoline demand

lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil prices the role of short term and long term shocks abstract using weekly data for the period march 1991 to august 2002 we estimate the response of retail gasoline prices to changes in crude oil and spot gasoline prices in the us allowing for a possibility of two types of cost shocks to the gasoline market long term and short term shocks our conclusion is that theoretical models should be developed that allow more than one type of input price changes and the different effect of input price changes on output prices the empirical results support the conjecture of two types of cost shocks as such we find that lags in the response of retail gasoline prices to changes in crude oil prices may be due to the fact that approximately 97 of changes in crude oil prices are viewed as short term by the market participants when two types of shocks are considered there is large difference between the cumulative response function of gasoline prices to long term and short term shocks to crude oil prices as such this paper adds to our understanding of the price stickiness of gasoline prices

a single equation study of u s petroleum consumption the role of model specification the price responsiveness of u s petroleum consumption began to attract a great deal of attention following the unexpected and substantial oil price increases of 1973 74 there have been a number of large multi equation econometric studies of u s energy demand since then which have focused primarily on estimating short run and long run price and income elasticities of individual energy resources coal oil natural gas electricity for various consumer sectors residential industrial commercial following these early multi equation studies there have been several single equation studies of aggregate u s petroleum consumption 4 3 9 5 6 these singleequation studies have found that u s demand for petroleum products can be quite price inelastic in the short run estimates range from 0 04 to 0 08 but exhibits long lags of anywhere from 6 to 10 years that yield long run price elasticities ranging from 0 25 to 0 56 income or gnp elasticities are usually found to be much higher 0 69 to 1 13 with the complete response often assumed to occur in the current period single equation studies are often justified as efficient shortcuts or reduced forms for identifying the central behavioral aspects of a particular market the main issue addressed in this paper is the extent to which the existing empirical results from single equation studies of aggregate u s petroleum consumption have been influenced by the researchers choice of dynamic model specification this question is relevant because the econometric methodology usually followed in such studies is to start with a relatively simple specification such as a partial adjustment model or some kind of a distributed lag structure on price alone this initial specification choice is rarely justified except possibly to cite its previous success in similar work given that models which produce insignificant or perverse coefficient estimates are not usually publishable the reported specification is almost certain to provide reasonable statistically significant estimates with the correct signs the primary diagnostic test of the chosen specification is the durbin watson test statistic or perhaps durbin s h statistic in the presence of lagged dependent variables when this test gives evidence of serial correlation in the residuals the usual response is to correct for this by estimating a first or second order autoregressive model ar 1 or ar 2 should this easilyimplemented correction not solve the problem there is a tendency to chalk it up to some kind 1 an excellent survey of these results may be found in bohi 2 159

do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically in the euro zone area evidence from cointegrated panel data analysis this paper uses the generalized method of moments gmm estimation to a panel data error correction model ecm in order to measure the asymmetries in the transmission of shocks to input prices and exchange rate onto the wholesale and retail gasoline price respectively for this purpose we use an updated data set of 6369 weekly observations january 2000 to february 2011 for 11 euro zone countries the results indicate the existence of asymmetric responses in the retail and wholesale segment due to possible reasons oligopolistic structure of the refining industry existence of consumers search costs regulatory and legal barriers

the taxation effect on gasoline price asymmetry nexus evidence from both sides of the atlantic this paper explores the degree of competition in various gasoline markets and infers possible causes of price asymmetry across the globe for this purpose we use the dynamic ordinary least square method in order to estimate price asymmetry in twelve european countries and the united states for a sample of weekly observations which spans the period from june 1996 to august 2011 the results indicate the common perception that less competitive gasoline markets exhibit price asymmetry while highly competitive gasoline markets follow a symmetric price adjustment path finally the inclusion of taxes vat and excise tax into retail gasoline prices supports the existence of price asymmetry in many european countries

metaanalisis de las elasticidades ingreso y precio de la demanda de energia algunas implicaciones de politica publica para america latina the aim of this paper is to analyze the variation in empirical estimates of the income and price elasticities of energy demand the evidence presented through a meta analysis allows identification of the weighted average of the income and price elasticities shows that the estimates are very heterogeneous that there is publication bias and that factors such as region energy sector among others affect its volatility the evidence also indicates that income elasticity in latin america is greater than in the oecd countries and that the price elasticity of energy demand is lower in latin america than in the oecd countries therefore continued economic growth in latin america will be accompanied by a growth in energy demand moreover the establishment of a tax in latin america under the current elasticities is less effective and will be insufficient to control the increase in energy consumption

how sensitive to time period sampling is the asymmetric price response specification in energy demand modelling abstract the purpose of this paper is to investigate the criticism that energy demand estimates based on a specific price decomposition are sensitive to the chosen time period used for the estimation to analyse this in a systematic way different time series sample periods are constructed from annual data for 17 oecd countries covering the overall period 1960 to 2008 the specific price decomposition under consideration often used to estimate asymmetric price response models of energy demand separates the impact of prices above the previous maximum of a price recovery below the previous maximum and of a price cut therefore the analysis does not just involve using different time periods instead for each time period investigated a new dataset is constructed and for each dataset the price variable is decomposed in this way an energy demand relationship allowing for asymmetric price responses is therefore estimated for each different sample period and the results suggest that recalculation of the decomposed price variables for each different period does affect the stability of the estimated energy demand responses in contrast a similarly estimated energy demand relationship with symmetric price responses for each different sample period is found to have less instability

tests for structural change in us oil consumption 1967 1982 abstract the purpose of this paper is to test us oil consumption for structural change over the period 1967 1982 a frequently used functional form is posited for total petroleum consumption as well as for gasoline distillate and residual fuel tests for abrupt change chow and gradual or conservation like change durbin brown evans and farley hinnich mcguire are employed at special break points 1973 embargo 1979 iranian crisis 1980 recession to check for abrupt changes and across years in general to detect gradual shifts both abrupt and gradual changes are found although the last five years may be the beginning of a new non changing period

gasoline demand the case of saudi arabia this paper specifies a partial adjustment model to estimate the demand for gasoline in saudi arabia for the period 1970 1985 it is found that the demand for gasoline is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run as compared to other countries the kingdom s gasoline demand elasticities more closely resemble those of industrial countries

demand elasticities in oecd dynamical aspects abstract four models with different lag structures are used to express final energy demand in oecd from 1960 1982 as a function of real gdp and average energy price the income and long run price elasticities are not significantly dependent on the model specification but the koyck lag scheme estimated in its distributed lag form is found to give the most satisfactory results the statistical properties of the data together with evidence of trends in the elasticities both suggest that the period of falling real prices prior to 1971 is not comparable to the present period for the period after 1971 an income elsticity of 1 02 and a long run price elasticity of 0 37 are obtained

energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized countries the dynamic aggregate time series relationship abstract most econometric studies suggest that the income elasticity of demand for energy is approximately unity for the developed market economies it is shown that over the period 1950 1978 the long run income elasticity is substantially higher than unity in terms of a ces energy demand function this result reflects the application of a generalized dynamic estimation methodology where serial correlation is regarded as a diagnostic guide to distributed lag fitting price elasticities are also estimated but these are in line with conventional estimates

do petrol prices increase faster than they fall in market disequilibria abstract this paper tests the idea that petrol prices respond more quickly to price increases than to decreases we show that the results previously documented in the literature for australia are spurious due to failure to establish the stationarity property of the price series and the co integration relationship between retail and wholesale prices when neglecting to account for a regime shift in the data using a robust approach involving a threshold error correction model we find little evidence to support the contention that retail petrol price reverts asymmetrically to long run equilibrium asymmetric adjustments in retail prices are found only in four of the twenty eight retail gas stations in queensland these results cast doubt on the previously reported pervasiveness of this asymmetric price response phenomenon in australia we further caution on erroneous inference with the use of weekly rather than daily data and when failing to account for a regime shift in the data

rockets and feathers revisited an international comparison on european gasoline markets this paper re examines the issue of asymmetries in the transmission of shocks to crude oil prices onto the retail price of gasoline relative to the previous literature the distinguishing features of the present paper are i use of updated and comparable data to carry out an international comparison of gasoline markets ii two stage modeling of the transmission of oil price shocks to gasoline prices first refinery stage and second distribution stage in order to assess possible asymmetries at either one or both stages iii use of asymmetric error correction models to distinguish between asymmetries that arise from short run deviations in input prices and from the speed at which the gasoline price reverts to its long run level iv explicit possibly asymmetric role of the exchange rate as crude oil is paid for in dollars whereas gasoline sells for different sums of national currencies v bootstrapping of f tests of asymmetries in order to overcome the lowpower problem of conventional testing procedures in contrast to several previous findings the results generally point to widespread differences in both adjustment speeds and short run responses when input prices rise or fall

energy elasticities under divisia and btu aggregation abstract this paper considers two methods of energy aggregation divisia and btu a dynamic demand model is used to study the response of energy use to price and income changes under these two aggregation schemes while the short run responses of energy use are found to be similar the long run response is greater under divisia than under btu aggregation especially in periods of marked changes in energy prices

economic modelling of energy services rectifying misspecified energy demand functions abstract although it is well known that energy demand is derived since energy is required not for its own sake but for the energy services it produces such as heating lighting and motive power energy demand models both theoretical and empirical often fail to take account of this feature in this paper we highlight the misspecification that results from ignoring this aspect and its empirical implications biased estimates of price elasticities and other measures and provide a relatively simple and empirically practicable way to rectify it which has a strong theoretical grounding to do so we develop an explicit model of consumer behaviour in which utility derives from consumption of energy services rather than from the energy sources that are used to produce them as we discuss this approach opens up the possibility of examining many aspects of energy demand in a theoretically sound way that have not previously been considered on a widespread basis although some existing empirical work could be interpreted as being consistent with this type of specification while this formulation yields demand equations for energy services rather than for energy or particular energy sources these are shown to be readily converted without added complexity into the standard type of energy demand equation s that is are typically estimated the additional terms that the resulting energy demand equations include compared to those that are typically estimated highlight the misspecification that is implicit when typical energy demand equations are estimated a simple solution for dealing with an apparent drawback of this formulation for empirical purposes namely that information is required on typically unobserved energy efficiency indicates how energy efficiency can be captured in the model such as by including exogenous trends and or including its possible dependence on past energy prices the approach is illustrated using an empirical example that involves estimation of an aggregate energy demand function for the uk with data over the period 1960 2011

the birth of pork local appropriations in america s first century after describing a newly assembled dataset consisting of almost 9 000 local appropriations made by the u s congress between 1789 and 1882 we test competing accounts of the politics surrounding them before offering a more nuanced historically contingent view of the emergence of the pork barrel we demonstrate that for most of this historical period despite contemporary accusations of crass electoral motives the pattern of appropriations is largely inconsistent with accounts of distributive politics grounded in a logic of legislative credit claiming instead support for appropriations in the house mapped cleanly onto the partisan ideological structure of congress for most of this period and only in the 1870s produced the universalistic coalitions commonly associated with pork barrel spending we trace this shift to two historical factors the emergence of a solid democratic south and growth in the fraction of appropriations funding recurrent expenditures on extant projects rather than new starts

can exchange rate pass through explain the asymmetric gasoline puzzle evidence from a pooled panel threshold analysis of the eu abstract this study contributes to the literature since it tries to link the exchange rate pass through erpt with the rockets and feathers hypothesis using a panel of eu 28 countries allowing for the existence of an endogenous threshold variable our empirical findings indicate that the threshold model is better suited to this analysis than the baseline linear adjustment model this is the case since the latter restricts the threshold to be centered around zero and the dynamic response to cumulative shocks cannot be properly identified the empirical findings reveal that the threshold variable expressed by the trade weighted dollar exchange rate index is statistically significant only in the sample above the threshold high regime this means that for the net eu exporting countries fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the us against its major eu trading partners do affect the level of pre tax retail gasoline prices with the relevant elasticity exceeding unity complete erpt moreover all the statistical tests reject the null hypothesis that there is no significant threshold and thus an asymmetric adjustment gasoline mechanism prevails the impulse response functions confirm our empirical findings that erpt can explain asymmetric gasoline pricing within the eu periphery

the demand for electricity in israel quarterly data for israel are used to compare and contrast three dynamic econometric methodologies for estimating the demand for electricity by households and industrial companies these are the dynamic regression model and two approaches to cointegration ols and maximum likelihood since we find evidence of seasonal unit roots in the data we also test for seasonal cointegration we find that the scale elasticities are similar in all three approaches but the ols price elasticities are considerably lower moreover ols suggests non cointegration the paper concludes by stochastically simulating the drms to calculate upside risk in electricity demand

a unified model of cabinet dissolution in parliamentary democracies the literature on cabinet duration is split between two apparently irreconcilable positions the attributes theorists seek to explain cabinet duration as a fixed function of measured explanatory variables while the events process theorists model cabinet durations as a product of purely stochastic processes in this paper we build a unified statistical model that combines the insights of these previously distinct approaches we also generalize this unified model and all previous models by including 1 a stochastic component that takes into account the censoring that occurs as a result of governments lasting to the vicinity of the maximum constitutional interelection period 2 a systematic component that precludes the possibility of negative duration predictions and 3 a much more objective and parsimonious list of explanatory variables the explanatory power of which would not be improved by including a list of indicator variables for individual countries

price asymmetry in the dutch retail gasoline market abstract this article analyses the retail price adjustments in the dutch gasoline market we estimate an asymmetric error correction model on weekly price changes for the years 1996 2001 we construct five datasets one for each working day the conclusions on asymmetric pricing are shown to differ over these datasets suggesting that the choice of the day for which the prices are observed matters more than commonly believed in our view the insufficient robustness of the outcomes might explain the mixed conclusions found in the literature using these two approaches we also show that the effect of asymmetry on the dutch consumer costs is negligible

the demand for electricity and natural gas in the northeastern united states the demand for natural gas and electricity for the residential commercial and industrial sectors was estimated using a combination of the error components model and seemingly unrelated regressions the estimated demand models showed both natural gas and electricity to be price elastic in the long run and price inelastic in the short run in all sectors except the commercial sector in which electricity demand is unresponsive to its own price natural gas had negligible income elasticities in the residential and commercial sectors and a long run income elasticity of 2 86 in the industrial sector electricity had an insignificant income effect in all sectors but the industrial where its long run elasticity was unitary only in the residential demand for natural gas is the cross price elasticity substantial with the price of electricity having a long run cross elasticity of 1 70 fuel oil prices generally had a negative impact probably indicating a large income effect the elasticities of adjustment were higher for natural gas than electricity indicating a faster adjustment to change either in response to greater instability in energy availability or reflecting more alternative fuels or both 16 references 4 tables