emerging biofuels outlook of effects on u s grain oilseed and livestock markets projections of u s ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage crop prices livestock production and prices trade and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained the projections were made using a multi product multi country deterministic partial equilibrium model the impacts of higher oil prices a drought combined with an ethanol mandate and removal of land from the conservation reserve program crp relative to baseline projections are also presented the results indicate that expanded u s ethanol production will cause long run crop prices to increase in response to higher feed costs livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases retail meat egg and dairy prices will also increase if oil prices are permanently 10 per barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections u s ethanol will expand significantly the magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the u s automobile fleet if sufficient demand for e 85 from flex fuel vehicles is available corn based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices the direct effect of higher feed costs is that u s food prices would increase by a minimum of 1 1 over baseline levels results of a model of a 1988 type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices a drop in livestock production and higher food prices corn exports would drop significantly and feed costs would rise wheat feed use would rise sharply taking additional land out of the crp would lower crop prices in the short run but because long run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage the long run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller crp are modest cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the corn belt under any of the scenarios this is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of corn based ethanol so long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel switchgrass for ethanol and corn for ethanol they will choose to grow corn cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial sized ethanol facility

renewable natural resource management and use without markets natural resources by their nature are not readily bent to the status of private property efficient resource use is complicated by jurisdictional externalities public goods non use values and beneficiaries spatially separated from the location of resources the task is made more challenging by ecological complexity that obscures cause benefits and effects costs and dramatic time lags between individual actions and subsequent social consequences that together with substantial uncertainty introduce the chance of irreversibilities resource economists have played a major role in the literature on externalities the development of individual transferable quotas non market valuation techniques and common property management

willingness to pay for e85 from corn switchgrass and wood residues abstract willingness to pay wtp for e85 automotive fuel blend of 85 ethanol and 15 gasoline was estimated from a contingent choice exercise contained in a national survey of consumers the choice exercise included e85 blends from three different feedstock sources corn grain switchgrass and wood wastes and an e10 blend 10 ethanol and 90 gasoline with corn grain as the ethanol feedstock results from the study indicate willingness to pay a premium for e85 from switchgrass compared with e10 from corn concerns about land use for food versus fuel had a negative impact on wtp for e85 from corn grain while greater concerns about fuel security relative to the environment had a positive impact

conjoint effect of environmental labeling disclosure of forest of origin and price on consumer preferences for wood products in the us and uk abstract a study that conjointly analyzed the effects of environmental labeling disclosure of forest of origin and price on consumer preferences for wood products was conducted in the us and the uk a choice based elicitation tool was used to mimic a real life situation where a single product was selected over a set of options data collected were analyzed using a conditional logit model certification issued by a government agency or an environmental non government organization both had a favorable effect on consumer preference over a non certified option the most relevant implication of our findings was the negative effect that disclosing information about a product coming from tropical forests had on consumer preferences even compared to a product of unknown origin a decline in product preference was observed along higher price premiums as expected the degree of sensitivity to price changes was affected by demographic characteristics model coefficients were used to estimate market shares of tropical wood products under different scenarios in both countries scenarios explored the effect of environmental certification and price premiums on product market shares

consumer demand for green power and energy efficiency abstract this article examines reported willingness to pay for electric utility investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency resources using the results of deliberative polls conducted by electric utilities in texas 1 age education and salary tend to affect reported willingness to pay for utility investments in these resources intensive exposure to information about energy resource issues led to an increase in the number of respondents interested in paying a modest premium to support investments in both renewable energy resources and energy efficiency however average reported premiums actually declined following the polls as very high outlier responses moved to more reasonable values following the polls these results support the contention that informed dialogue about energy alternatives will result in broader interest in providing a modest level of support for these resources

blend wall economics relaxing us ethanol regulations can lead to increased use of fossil fuels abstract the us environmental protection agency is currently considering a waiver allowing an increase in the fuel ethanol blend limit the blend wall from 10 e10 up to 15 e15 justifications for this waiver are reduced vehicle fuel prices and less consumption of petroleum gasoline leading to energy security a theoretical examination of this waiver reveals an anomaly where a relaxation of this blend wall elicits a demand response under a wide range of elasticities this demand response can actually increase the consumption of petroleum gasoline and thus lead to greater energy insecurity the economics supporting this result and associated policy implications are developed and discussed

blending under uncertainty real options analysis of ethanol plants and biofuels mandates abstract the value of a representative ethanol producer that benefits from both low and high gasoline prices in the short run is modeled ethanol producers make a modest competitive profit in the mandate induced region of production a low price of gasoline increases the demand for blend ethanol and consequently increases the profit of ethanol producers on the other hand when gasoline becomes costlier than ethanol the capacity constraints of the biofuels sector bind and ethanol producers gain large quasi monopoly margins this is an interesting example of a market where two commodities are complement up to a point and then substitute after that we postulate the value of an ethanol producer as a strangle option consisting of two real options the option to substitute gasoline at times of expensive crude oil and the option to expand supply of blend at times of cheap gasoline using a dynamic model we show that the higher volatilities of crude oil and ethanol costs increase biofuels firms value we also find non monotonic relationships between the value of an ethanol plant and several underlying variables including gasoline price level we estimate the value provided by a 10 blend mandate to be around 150 000 000 for a representative ethanol unit our results offer a novel view of oil and feedstock price risks in contrast to the common belief that considers those risks as a negative factor for the biofuels sector

the monetary approach to the exchange rate in this paper the monetary approach to the exchange rate is re examined for three key currencies using data for the recent experience with flexible exchange rates two important findings are reported in the paper first it is demonstrated using a multivariate cointegration technique that an unrestricted monetary model is a valid framework for analysing the long run exchange rate second we find inter alia that the proportionality of the exchange rate to relative money supplies is valid for the german mark

the choice theory approach to market research this paper surveys economic choice theory stressing developments that permit use of data from psychometric and conjoint experiments to produce market demand forecasts alternatives to the widely used multinomial logit model are summarized and a new method for estimating multinomial probits is described an integration of choice models with attitudinal scaling and perceptual mapping within a latent variable system is described estimation of such systems under either random effects or fixed effects descriptions of heterogeneity across individuals is discussed issues in the use of choice models to describe responses from conjoint experiments are presented new regression diagnostic tests for the consistency of multinomial logit representations are discussed

the economics of the greenhouse effect the recognition that economic activity is contributing to climatic change with attendant costs that may be of large magnitudes has set in motion a substantial research effort this paper seeks to review the contribution of economics to analysis of the greenhouse effect and to the policies and instruments suggested as means of mitigating its damage a brief overview of the causes and consequences of global warming is given and a number of energy economy forecasting models are examined as the costs of global warming depend upon the extent to which preventative and adaptive measures are undertaken the techniques available to evaluate these costs are surveyed we examine extant targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and explore the frameworks within which optimal policy targets can be designed the paper also considers the narrower question of minimized abatement costs and surveys the types of models used to estimate them the merits of alternative policy instruments are examined paying particular attention to the role that risk and uncertainty and the costs of monitoring and implementation of policy under conditions of imperfect information may play in the choice of instruments problems of international co operation in the development of abatement policy are examined and we consider the compensations across both nations and generations that are likely to be necessary conditions for effective action

the economic impacts of climate change evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather fisher et al 2012 hereafter fhrs have uncovered coding and data errors in our paper deschenes and greenstone 2007 hereafter dg we acknowledge and are embarrassed by these mistakes we are grateful to fhrs for uncovering them we hope that this reply will also contribute to advancing the literature on the vital question of the impact of climate change on the us agricultural sector fhrs main critiques of dg are as follows i there are errors in the weather data and climate change projections used by dg ii the climate change projections are based on the hadley 2 model and scenarios rather than the more recent hadley 3 model and scenarios iii standard errors are biased due to spatial correlation iv the inclusion of state by year fixed effects does not leave enough weather variation to obtain meaningful estimates of the relationship between agriculture profits and weather v storage and inventory adjustment in response to yield shocks invalidate the use of annual profit data and vi fhrs argue that a better specified hedonic model produces robust estimates unlike the results reported in dg four of these critiques have little basis and we respond to them here in the introduction specifically with respect to ii the more recent daily climate predictions were not available when we wrote dg nevertheless the most important issue is providing the reliable estimates of climate change and in this note we report estimates based on the climate model we used in dg and a more recent one that we gained access to in the meantime iii in the primary table on agricultural profits dg reports two sets of standard errors with the first clustered at the county level and the second based on a variance covariance matrix that accounts for spatial correlation using the method proposed in conley 1999 thus the claim of fhrs 2012 seems overblown nevertheless to ease comparisons of papers in this literature this note will adopt the fhrs convention of reporting estimated standard errors clustered at the county and state levels we find that inference is largely unaffected by the choice between these different assumptions about the variance covariance matrix

exploring the drivers side of the blend wall u s consumer preferences for ethanol blend fuels abstract analysis of stated preferences from over 2300 u s respondents shows that general attitudes nationwide favor the use of ethanol as a motor fuel but a sizeable segment 20 indicated strong unwillingness to buy ethanol blend fuels results from a discrete choice experiment analyzed using mixed logit regressions show that all else constant price per gallon and miles per gallon dominated preferences for fuel attributes but ethanol content made the average consumer more likely to choose a blend fuel findings provide strong evidence of heterogeneity in preferences driven by attitudes but also affected by age and income at a point of price per mile equivalence for ethanol and gasoline in a market where gasoline e20 and e85 were available with no regulatory supply or technological constraints e85 would dominate market share in this case ethanol would account for 56 of volume of motor fuels consumed our results show a high level of consumer substitutability of gasoline with ethanol and willingness to choose high ethanol blend fuels which could help expand ethanol use beyond the current regulatory and technological limits of the blend wall

global warming discounting is not the issue but substitutability is the cost benefit study of nordhaus 1994 is representative for the neoclassical approach towards global warming nordhaus found that no substantial emission cuts are warranted most of his critics have concentrated on the issue of discounting and demanded that a lower discount rate should be applied these criticisms first miss the point and second lead to ethically dubious inconsistent conclusions and inefficient policy choices they miss the point because the real problem of nordhaus s methodology is his implicit underlying assumption of perfect substitutability between natural and other forms of capital given the validity of this assumption lowering the rate of discount is inconsistent with current savings behaviour is ethically dubious because future generations will be much richer than the current one anyway and is inefficient because scarce financial resources are channelled into emissions abatement that exhibits rates of return far inferior to alternative public investments any call for aggressive emission abatement must therefore directly attack the perfect substitutability assumption of neoclassical economics the real disagreement is about whether consumption growth can compensate for environmental degradation caused by global warming discounting is not the issue but substitutability is

the failure of the monetary model of exchange rate determination in this paper we test three popular versions of the monetary model flexible price forward looking and real interest differential models for the oecd member countries by applying johansen cointegration technique based on country by country analysis we conclude that monetary models do not provide the expected results we reveal several shortcomings of the models and examine the building blocks of the fundamental version although researchers always blame the deviations from purchasing power parity as the reason for the failure of the monetary model our analysis indicates that invalidity of keynesian money demand function is also responsible for unfavourable results

air travel choices in multi airport markets abstract we study how air travel consumers departing from a multi airport region trade off across airport and airline supply characteristics we empirically investigate this trade off by estimating a weighted conditional logit model of airport airline choice using survey data on travels departing from one of three san francisco bay area airports and arriving at one of four airports in greater los angeles in october 1995 non price characteristics like airport access time airport delay flight frequency the availability of particular airport airline combinations and early arrival times are found to strongly affect choice probabilities we calculate marginal effects and counterfactual scenarios to compare the values of these characteristics among each other and across traveler type in order to examine the robustness of the conditional logit model we estimate a mixed logit model and find that the results are similar we attribute the similarity to our strictly defined travel market and to our distinction between leisure and business travelers thus controlling for two important sources of consumer heterogeneity we consider the implications of our empirical findings on vertical integration between airlines and airports on the effectiveness of airport dominance and on the competitive effect of entry by low cost carriers

integration cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models abstract we propose an alternative set of criteria for evaluating forecast rationality the forecast and the actual series 1 have the same order of integration 2 are cointegrated and 3 have a cointegrating vector consistent with long run unitary elasticity of expectations we denote forecasts that meet these criteria as consistent forecasts generated from monetary models generally pass 1 however using the johansen procedure cointegration fails to hold the longer the horizon of the cointegrated pairs 3 is not generally rejected using the horvath watson procedure imposing the unitary coefficient restriction we find fewer instances of consistency although a higher proportion of the cases of consistency are found at the longer horizons

climate change costs recent advancements in the economic assessment climate change is unique among the consequences of fossil fuel burning in its far reaching impact both spatially and temporally earlier studies estimate the aggregated monetized damage due to climate change at 1 5 to 2 0 of world gdp for 2 co2 the oecd would lose 1 0 to 1 5 of gdp the developing countries 2 0 to 9 0 according to these estimates these figures are not comprehensive and highly uncertain newer studies increasingly emphasize adaptation variability extreme events other non climate change stress factors and the need for integrated assessment of damages as a result differences in impacts between regions and sectors have increased the market impacts in developed countries tended to fall and non market impacts have become increasingly important marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view earlier estimates range from about us 5 to us 125 per tonne of carbon with most estimates at the lower end of this range these figures are based on polynomial functions in the level of climate change but the rate of change may be equally important as are the speed of adaptation restoration and value adjustment furthermore future vulnerability to climate change will be different from current vulnerability on the whole the market impacts fall relatively with economic growth while the non market impacts rise relatively with growth

the impact of global warming on agriculture a ricardian analysis reply we measure the economic impact of climate on land prices using cross sectional data on climate farmland prices and other economic and geophysical data for almost 3 000 counties in the united states we find that higher temperatures in all seasons except autumn reduce average farm values while more precipitation outside of autumn increases farm values applying the model to a global warming scenario shows a significantly lower estimated impact of global warming on u s agriculture than the traditional production function approach and in one case suggests that even without co sub 2 fertilization global warming may have economic benefits for agriculture 16 refs 5 figs 5 tabs

testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination a closer look at panels abstract in this paper we undertake an extensive evaluation of panel tests of the long run monetary model of exchange rate determination we first show how poorly the monetary model performs on a country by country basis for us dollar exchange rates over the post bretton woods period for a large number of industrialized countries in sharp contrast we find considerable support for the monetary model using panel procedures as in groen 2000 and mark and sul 2001 given the disparity in the country by country and panel approaches we carefully analyze the homogeneity restrictions inherent in the panel procedures the evidence on the appropriateness of the homogeneity restrictions is mixed in the end whether the monetary model conforms to post bretton woods data largely depends on one s prior beliefs

economic implications of climate change for u s agriculture assessing recent evidence recent studies estimate potential economic impacts of climate change on u s agriculture while results are not directly comparable several big picture lessons can be drawn these broader findings are developed and put into a policy context while the estimated impacts on u s agriculture and the u s economy do not yet justify costly adaptation or mitigation strategies some regional and environmental impacts could be quite severe current policy efforts should focus on reducing climate change uncertainties and increasing farm sector flexibility from a national perspective future agreements to limit greenhouse gas emissions could be partially met through adjustments of farm practices

the monetary exchange rate model as a long run phenomenon abstract pure time series based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models in this paper we apply pooled time series estimation on a forward looking monetary model resulting in parameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlying theory based on a panel version of the engle and granger engle r f granger c w j 1987 co integration and error correction representation estimation and testing econometrica 55 251 276 two step procedure we find that the residuals of the panel based estimated monetary model are stationary this indicates that on a pooled time series level there is cointegration between the exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals of this monetary model

using cheap talk as a test of validity in choice experiments abstract in two experiments on the choice of consumer goods the estimated marginal willingness to pay for food is found to be lower in the survey version with cheap talk our test can be seen as a test of hypothetical bias this implies that we cannot reject the hypothesis of a hypothetical bias for marginal wtp in choice experiments

us consumers willingness to pay for green electricity abstract we analyze us consumers demand for environmental attributes of deregulated residential electricity services using results from a survey designed to elicit consumers willingness to pay for such attributes and using results from a hedonic analysis of actual price premiums charged for green electricity in several deregulated markets survey results suggest that many population segments are willing to pay for decreased air emissions even if there is no alteration in fuel source furthermore several groups are willing to pay significantly more when emissions reductions stem from increased reliance upon renewable fuels the hedonic analysis suggests that several product features not considered in the survey help explain real price premiums including fuel mix from newly created renewable generation capacity green e certification brand name and state of offer while survey and hedonic results are not easily compared due to limitations of the survey both point to similar values for key environmental attributes though the survey results are likely to overstate actual willingness to pay in sum the results suggest that consumer driven purchases can in part support the future of renewable generation capacity in the united states though reliance upon other policy alternatives may be needed if energy prices spike

combining price and quantity controls to mitigate global climate change abstract uncertainty about compliance costs causes otherwise equivalent price and quantity controls to behave differently and leads to divergent welfare consequences although most of the debate on global climate change policy has focused on quantity controls due to their political appeal this paper argues that price controls are more efficient simulations based on a stochastic computable general equilibrium model indicate that the expected welfare gain from the optimal price policy is five times higher than the expected gain from the optimal quantity policy an alternative hybrid policy combines both the political appeal of quantity controls with the efficiency of prices using an initial distribution of tradeable permits to set a quantitative target but allowing additional permits to be purchased at a fixed trigger price even sub optimal hybrid policies offer dramatic efficiency improvements over otherwise standard quantity controls for example a 50 trigger price per ton of carbon converts the 3 trillion expected loss associated with a simple 1990 emission target to a 150 billion gain these results suggest that a hybrid policy is an attractive alternative to either a pure price or quantity system

the amenity value of the italian climate the hedonics literature suggests that locations with more favourable characteristics should display compensating wage and house price differentials specifying climate in terms of january and july averages estimates of the marginal willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables are derived using this technique applied to italian data italians would prefer a drier climate during the winter months but higher summertime temperatures are shown to reduce welfare in some locations households would prefer to see clearer skies these results may have relevance to the task of determining the economic impact of future climate change c 2003 elsevier science usa all rights reserved

the monetary model strikes back evidence from the world abstract we revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements using the information content from 98 countries we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals we also find fundamentals based models very successful in beating a random walk in out of sample prediction

agriculture and climate change in global scenarios why don t the models agree agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change the production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs temperature solar radiation available to the plant and precipitation previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices production and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification this article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture by harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects differences in model outcomes were reduced the particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects all models respond with higher prices producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response demand response is least important the differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future the results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to monte carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty

consumer choice between ethanol and gasoline lessons from brazil and sweden the introduction of flex fuel vehicles since 2003 has made possible for brazilian drivers to choose between high ethanol blends or gasoline depending on relative prices and fuel economies in sweden flex fuel fleets were introduced in 2005 prices and demand data were examined for both brazil and sweden bioethanol has been generally the most cost efficient fuel in brazil but not for all states in any case consumers in brazil have opted for ethanol even when this was not the optimal economic choice in sweden a different behavior was observed when falling gasoline prices made e85 uneconomical in late 2008 in a context of international biofuels expansion the example of e85 in sweden indicates that new markets could experience different consumer behavior than brazil demand falls rapidly with reduced price differences between ethanol and gasoline at the same time rising ethanol demand and lack of an international market with multiple biofuel producers could lead to higher domestic prices in brazil once the limit curve is crossed the consumer might react by shifting back to the usage of gasoline

banking on currency forecasts how predictable is change in money abstract the paper examines the predictive performance of four structural exchange rate models using both parametric and nonparametric techniques error correction versions of the models are fit so that plausible long run elasticities can be imposed on the fundamental variables of each model a variety of model evaluation statistics are reported our findings confirm that fundamental exchange rate models forecast no better than a random walk model for short term prediction horizons for longer horizons error correction terms can explain exchange rate movements significantly better than a no change forecast for a subset of the models and currencies we consider

on the stability of money demand abstract we show that regulatory changes that occurred in the banking sector in the early 1980s that considerably weakened regulation q can explain the apparent instability of money demand starting in the same period we evaluate the effects of the regulatory changes using a model that goes beyond aggregates as m1 and treats currency and different deposit types as alternative means of payments we use the model to construct a new monetary aggregate that performs remarkably well for all the period 1915 2012

the welfare economics of a biofuel tax credit and the interaction effects with price contingent farm subsidies a framework is developed to analyze the effects of a biofuel consumer tax exemption and the interaction effects with a price contingent farm subsidy ethanol prices rise above the gasoline price by the amount of the tax credit corn farmers gain directly while gasoline consumers only gain from any reduction in world oil prices due to the extra ethanol production domestic oil producers lose historically the intercept of the ethanol supply curve is above the gasoline price hence part of the tax credit is redundant and represents rectangular deadweight costs that dwarf triangular deadweight cost measures of traditional farm subsidies copyright 2007 oxford university press

valuing climate protection through willingness to pay for biomass ethanol abstract this study uses a multi part split sample contingent valuation method cvm and fair share fs survey to better understand the public s valuation of mitigating global climate change through its willingness to pay for biomass or cellulosic ethanol in addition to a basic cvm question a related scenario was developed that asked half of the survey respondents to state their fair share cost to lessen a potential food shortage in the next decade also through the expanded use of cellulosic ethanol three alternative biomass feedstocks were assessed farming residues forestry residues and paper mill wastes and municipal solid wastes overall a slightly larger proportion of respondents were wtp extra for cellulosic ethanol in the basic cvm scenario than in the fs scenario though no significant differences were found in the wtp for the different feedstocks bid curve lognormal regression results for the two models were similar supporting the idea that asking a fs rather than a conventional wtp question may be justifiable in some circumstances such as in cases of a national emergency

the impact of global warming on agriculture reply in our paper with daigee shaw mendelsohn et al 1994 henceforth mns we developed a new approach to measuring the impact of global warming on agriculture we call this approach ricardian because it relies upon standard rent theory as a way of identifying the impact of changes on net economic welfare we compared the ricardian approach with the traditional production function approach which uses agricultural production functions but has great difficulty identifying all the other adjustments that farmers make in response to changing external conditions the ricardian approach is particularly well suited to a tremendously heterogeneous sector because it can rely upon reduced form estimation and does not require the impossible task of constructing structural models of hundreds of crops in thousands of locations estimating the model using cross sectional data on climate farm land prices and other economic and geophysical data for almost 3 000 counties in the united states the ricardian approach shows a significantly lower estimated impact of global warming than the traditional productionfunction approach indeed our preferred statistical approach showed modest benefits of climate change in his comment on mns in this issue of the review william r cline 1996 raises three concerns first he notes that the analysis assumes that output prices remain constant second he asserts that the analysis assumes that the supply of water for irrigation is perfectly elastic third he calls for testing the results of the model on alternative climate scenarios from general circulation models gcm s his first and third points are useful additions while the second is incorrect our ricardian approach assumes that the existing pattern of agricultural land rents and land prices reflects the long run equilibrium economic effect of climate and other geophysical and economic variables standard economic reasoning shows that by calculating the estimated effects of perturbing the climatic variables we can project the impact of climate change on economic welfare we do so in a partial equilibrium approach which assumes that output prices are invariant to the climate and cline is correct to point out that this might lead to biased estimates because the partialequilibrium estimates tend to underestimate damages and overestimate benefits in fact the bias is small given standard parameters for agricultural demand and supply functions we illustrate this point using linear supply and demand functions for agricultural crops let demand be given by qd ao a1p while supply is q po pi p where q and p are output and price and ai and i are parameters in equilibrium at the old climate market outcomes are qo and po now suppose that global warming contracts supply so that

the monetary model of the exchange rate long run relationships short run dynamics and how to beat a random walk abstract the monetary model is re examined for the sterling dollar exchange rate first it is demonstrated using a multivariate cointegration technique that an unrestricted monetary model is a valid framework for analyzing the long run exchange rate second we find once proper account has been taken of the short run data dynamics that an unrestricted monetary model outperforms the random walk and other models in an out of sample forecasting contest jel f31

a ricardian model of climate change in canada a comparative static ricardian model is used to establish relationships between climate and agricultural land value in canada from these relationships agricultural costs of climate change scenarios are estimated this study is motivated partly by evidence of potential agricultural benefits of climate change from a similar analysis of the united states by mendelsohn nordhaus and shaw and partly by the void of canadian studies furthermore it extends the analysis to non uniform climate change scenarios its finding of a slightly positive upper bound on the agricultural benefits from climate change within a wide margin of error is motivation for further analysis un modele ricardien de changement climatique au canada l auteur utilise un modele statique ricardien classique pour etablir des relations entre le climat et la valeur des terres agricoles au canada a partir de ces relations on calibre les couts agricoles de divers scenarios de changement climatique cette etude a pris forme en partie en reaction aux resultats d une analyse similaire de mendelsohn nordhaus et shaw aux etats unis et en partie en reponse a un manque d etudes de ce genre au canada cet article etend les analyses aux scenarios de changements climatiques non uniformes les resultats suggerent qu il existe une sorte de borne positive superieure aux avantages agricoles du changement climatique a l interieur d une marge d erreur assez vaste voila qui encourage a poursuivre les analyses

the impact of global warming on agriculture a ricardian analysis comment the paper assesses the ricardian analysis of the impact of global warming on agriculture and the significance of the ricardian approach to estimating adjustment costs