the american business cycle continuity and change in recent decades the american economy has experienced the worst peace time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the great depression these circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles which joseph schumpeter suggested are like the beat of the heart of the essence of the organism that displays them in the american business cycle some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the united states focuses on the questions to what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks how have post 1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles and what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles they extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity consumption investment inventory change fiscal policy monetary behavior open economy and the labor market five papers focus on aggregate economic activity in a number of cases the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions in addition to its substantive findings the american business cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the nber business cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series

learning by doing vs learning from others in a principal agent model abstract we introduce learning in a principal agent model of output sharing under moral hazard we use social evolutionary learning to represent social learning and reinforcement experience weighted attraction ewa and individual evolutionary learning iel to represent individual learning learning in the principal agent model is difficult due to the stochastic environment the discontinuity in payoffs at the optimal contract and the incorrect evaluation of foregone payoffs for iel and ewa social learning is much more successful in adapting to the optimal contract than standard individual learning algorithms a modified iel using realized payoffs evaluation performs better but still falls short of social learning

fragmentation versus consolidation of securities trading evidence from the operation of rule 19c 3 stock exchanges defend their rules requiring members to trade listed stocks on an exchange floor as a means of achieving consolidation of trading which it is argued minimizes trading costs to investors by virtue of the securities and exchange commission s rule 19c 3 however these exchange rules cannot apply to stocks newly listed after april 26 1979 the objective of the securities and exchange commission rule was to end what was viewed as restraint of desirable competition that would more than compensate for any cost saving resulting from consolidation by comparing the cost of trading measured by bid ask spreads and returns variance for the two distinct groups of stocks those listed before april 26 1979 and those listed after we test these competing views we find that rule 19c 3 has not caused any reduction in spreads but may have caused an increase and has had no effect on returns variance

price discovery and the effects of fragmentation on market quality evidence from cypriot cross listed stocks using a novel high frequency data set we examine the contribution of greek trading to the price discovery process of a pair of cypriot blue chip cross listed stocks during overlapping trading hours additionally we investigate the effects of market fragmentation on the home market s quality as measured by microstructure based liquidity measures contrary to earlier studies from other markets our findings show that foreign stock exchanges can act as the leading contributors to price discovery and can concentrate the majority of trading activity and produce the lowest transaction costs our results also show that market fragmentation can lead to negative effects on market liquidity

inflation expectations in turkey learning to be rational turkey implemented an ambitious restructuring of the economy in the past several years including the adoption of inflation targeting along with a floating exchange rate regime inflation came down from almost triple digits to single digits between 2001 and 2005 this particular episode of the turkish economy sets a genuine case study for investigating the possible changes in the behaviour of inflation expectations upon a regime shift accordingly this study analyses inflation expectations in turkey focusing especially on the post 2001 transition phase we first conduct classical tests of unbiasedness and efficiency using aggregate survey data between august 2001 and october 2007 to get a statistical benchmark for rationality we find that classical tests reject full rationality hypothesis for all series except next month s consumer price index cpi inflation expectations then we carry out time varying parameter tvp estimates based on a kalman filter to see how the coefficients in the classical tes

household saving micro theories and micro facts in this survey we review the recent theoretical and empirical literature on household saving and consumption the discussion is structured around a list of motives for saving and how well the standard theory captures these motives we show that almost all of the motives for saving that have been suggested in the informal saving literature can be captured in the standard optimizing model particular attention is given to recent work on the precautionary motive and its implications for saving and consumption behavior we also discuss the behavioral or psychological approach that eschews the use of standard optimization techniques and focuses instead on direct consideration on saving we provide a section on facts who save and how much we then discuss informally the recent decline in the u s saving rate and whether the theory is of much use in understanding this and other changes in aggregate saving rates over time we do not find any convincing explanation for the change in saving rates we also discuss some analyses of saving behavior over the life cycle addressing such questions as whether households save enough for retirement and whether the consumption patterns of older households can be rationalized within a simple life cycle model we also review a great number of studies of the consumption euler equations based on our analysis of the studies cited we conclude that there is still mixed evidence that consumption is excessively sensitive to income we also examine in depth the recent empirical literature on the precautionary motive we conclude that although some households do seem to have a significant precautionary motive at some points in their life cycle this motive is not so strong empirically as some investigators suggest

does the specialist matter differential execution costs and intersecurity subsidization on the new york stock exchange this article tests for differences in execution costs among specialist firms for new york stock exchange listed securities execution cost differences provide a measure of the relative performance of specialist firms we find a substantial difference in effective spreads and order processing costs across specialist firms controlling for stock characteristics while economically significant the differences in execution costs between specialist firms are much smaller than the cross market differences reported by huang and stoll 1996 within a specialist firm there is a positive relation between order processing costs and trading activity that is consistent with the hypothesis that active stocks subsidize inactive stocks this article investigates whether differential execution costs exist across new york stock exchange nyse specialist firms and among stocks traded by the same specialist firm execution costs are paid by investors when completing a trade and are separate from the commission costs paid to a broker execution costs arise from the bid ask spread and the price impact of an investor s order on the future bid ask quote stoll 1985 shows that a transactionally efficient financial market which minimizes execution costs also minimizes the deviation in transaction prices from the true price of the underlying security evidence of differential execution costs for similar securities can be used to identify high cost and low cost liquidity providers on the nyse furthermore differential execution costs among stocks traded by the same specialist firm provide evidence consistent with a subsidy from actively traded to inactively traded stocks

estimating the output gap in a changing economy author affiliation hakan kara central bank of the republic of turkey research and monetary policy department istiklal caddesi no 10 ulus ankara 06100 turkey hakan kara tcmb gov trfethi obunc central bank of the republic of turkey research and monetary policy department istiklal caddesi no 10 ulus ankara 06100 turkey fethi ogunc tcmb gov trumit ozlale tobb university of economics and technology department of economics sobutozu caddesi no 43 sobutozu ankara 06560 turkey ozlale etu edu tr corresponding authorcabri sarikaya central bank of the republic of turkey research and monetary policy department istiklal caddesi no 10 ulus ankara 06100 turkey cagri sarikaya tcmb gov tr acknowledgment we thank levent ozbek for his valuable assistance and suggestions we are also grateful to dilara ece arzu cetinkaya and ayse tatar curl for their contributions throughout this project the views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the central bank of the republic of turkey 1 introductionthe emergence of price stability as the overriding goal of monetary policy in recent decades has led central banks to use all available information in the economy to foresee the future course of price dynamics one important variable that is closely monitored by the central banks in this context has been the output gap output in excess of its neutral or potential level a positive output gap for example is often perceived as a signal of excess demand which might require tightening to prevent the economy from overheating output gap by definition cannot be directly observed and thus has to be estimated however the information content of conventional output gap measures might be limited 1 not surprisingly studies on developing proper alternative techniques have intensified in recent years especially after the shortcomings of the hodrick prescott hp filter the most commonly used methodology were realized 2 in this context multivariate filtering techniques utilizing information from macroeconomic relationships have been proposed as alternatives 3one appropriate estimation technique in such a setting is the kalman filter which is a recursive algorithm for optimally forecasting the unobserved component given the observed variables and the imposed economic structure however existent multivariate techniques often impose strong restrictions in defining the relationships between key macroeconomic variables for example in these settings the relationships that govern the dynamics of the economy stay intact over the sample period this restriction might not hold for a constantly changing economy at least for economies experiencing massive structural changes as emerging markets do adopting different monetary policy regimes and experiencing frequent fiscal and financial restructuring periods affect the behavior of economic agents over time changing the reduced form relations between macroeconomic variables in these countries 4 therefore although standard multivariate filters address and hence improve upon the criticism regarding both the hp filter and other univariate statistical procedures there may be room for improvement if one can relax the typical restriction that system parameters stay constant over time this is the main motivation of our paper in this study we present a multivariate unobserved components model to estimate both the output gap and the time varying system parameters we use the turkish economy as a laboratory to demonstrate this technique as mentioned above the estimation of output gap by this method allows us to address changing relationships in the economy leaving room for assessing the effect of different policy regimes on the relationship between key macroeconomic variables such as inflation interest rates exchange rates and output gap

do competing specialists and preferencing dealers affect market quality we empirically demonstrate that the opportunities the boston stock exchange and the cincinnati stock exchange offer members to take the other side of their customers orders through affiliated market makers to internalize orders have little short run effect on posted or effective bid ask spreads this is true despite substantial movement of order flow away from the new york stock exchange when trading under one of these regional stock exchange programs begins these results contrast with the adverse effects of market fragmentation and internalization predicted by some theoretical market microstructure analyses and the popular financial press article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

learning ricardian equivalence abstract this paper tests whether subjects learn to comply with the ricardian equivalence proposition in a life cycle consumption laboratory experiment our results suggest that ricardian equivalence does not hold on average tax changes have a significant and strong impact on consumption choice using individual consumption time series the behaviour of 56 of our subjects can be classified as inconsistent with the ricardian equivalence proposition classifying subjects according to rules of thumb that best describe their behaviour we find that subjects switch less to rules that theoretically violate ricardian equivalence in later rounds compared to earlier rounds this implies that some subjects learn to comply with ricardian equivalence by changing their consumption strategy however the aggregate effect of taxation on consumption persists even after eight rounds of repetition

competition among markets the repeal of rule 390 abstract the new york stock exchange repealed its rule 390 on may 8 2000 the rule disallowed exchange members from trading stocks listed prior to april 26 1979 outside of an exchange we examine the implications of the rule s repeal on the competition for order flow as well as on measures of market quality such as spreads depth and price improvement for stocks impacted by the rule we use a second sample of stocks not subject to rule 390 rule 19c 3 stocks to control for market wide trends we have three important findings 1 quoted spreads decrease by about 18 for rule 390 stocks three times more than the reduction for rule 19c 3 stocks 2 effective spreads do not change and 3 the nyse lost little market share even in smaller trades that were supposed to migrate following the repeal our results indicate a paradigm shift in the way the nyse specialists make a market prior to the repeal the specialists set wider quotes but provided extensive price improvement following the repeal the specialists set tighter quotes with lesser price improvement possibilities we believe that this shift is a strategic response by the specialists to retain market share not by improving market quality but by making order flow internalization and payment for order flow less profitable as a result competition improves market quality but not in the way we would generally expect

rules of thumb versus dynamic programming this paper studies decision making with rules of thumb in the context of dynamic decision problems and compares it to dynamic programming a rule is a fixed mapping from a subset of states into actions rules are compared by averaging over past experiences this can lead to favoring rules which are only applicable in good states correcting this good state bias requires solving the dynamic program we provide a generalframework and characterize the asymptotic properties we apply it to provide a candidate explanation for the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income jel eoo c63 c61 e21

learning information processing and order submission in limit order markets by introducing a genetic algorithm learning with a classifier system into a limit order market this paper provides a unified framework of microstructure and agent based models of limit order markets that allows traders to determine their order submission endogenously according to market conditions it examines how traders process and learn from market information and how the learning affects limit order markets it is found that measured by the average usage of different group of market information trading rules under the learning become stationary in the long run also informed traders pay more attention to the last transaction sign while uninformed traders pay more attention to technical rules learning of uninformed traders improves market information efficiency but not necessarily when informed traders learn opposite to the learning of informed traders learning makes uninformed traders submit less aggressive limit orders and more market orders furthermore private values can have significant impact in the short run but not in the long run one implication is that the probability of informed trading pin is positively related to the volatility and the bid ask spread

coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market several studies including blanchard 2004 and favero and giavazzi 2004 imply that in emerging market economies a tight monetary policy within an inflation targeting framework could actually increase the price level due to the lack of fiscal discipline and the associated high risk premium we extend their arguments in two ways first we introduce a semi structural model with time varying parameters where the risk premium is unobserved and it is derived within the system such an approach fits better with the volatile nature of emerging market economies by allowing us to track down the time varying effects of macroeconomic dynamics on both the model consistent risk premium and the other key variables second we obtain impulse response functions and analyze the implications of a tight monetary policy on major macroeconomic variables taking the turkish economy as our reference point we find that the arguments of blanchard 2004 and favero and giavazzi 2004 seem to be valid

quote based competition and trade execution costs in nyse listed stocks abstract this study examines quotations order routing and trade execution costs for seven markets that compete for orders in large capitalization nyse listed stocks the competitiveness of quote updates from each market varies with measures of the profitability of attracting additional order and with volatility and inventory measures the probability of a trade executing on each market increases when the market posts competitive quotes execution costs for non nyse trades when the local market posts competitive non competitive quotes are virtually the same substantially exceed costs for matched nyse trades collectively these results imply a significant degree of quote based competition for order flow and are consistent with off nyse liquidity providers using competitive quotations to signal when they are prepared to give better than normal trade executions

rules of thumb for social learning this paper studies agents who consider the experiences of their neighbors in deciding which of two technologies to use we analyze two learning environments one in which the same technology is optimal for all players and another in which each technology is better for some of them in both environments players use exogenously specified rules of thumb that ignore historical data but may incorporate a tendency to use the more popular technology in some cases these naive rules can lead to fairly efficient decisions in the long run but adjustment can be slow when a superior technology is first introduced

high frequency trading competition we analyze trading dynamics as successive high frequency trading hft firms begin to trade stocks in an equity market entrants compete with incumbents for volume and there is crowding out

competition and collusion in dealer markets this article develops a game theoretic model to analyze market makers intertemporal pricing strategies we show that dealers who adopt noncooperative pricing strategies may set bid ask spreads above competitive levels this form of implicit collusion differs from explicit collusion where dealers cooperate to fix prices price discreteness or asymmetric information are not required for collusion to occur rather institutional arrangements that restrict access to the order flow are important determinants of the ability to collude because they reduce dealers incentives to compete on price public policy efforts to increase interdealer competition should focus on such restrictions

competing with the new york stock exchange research on information economics and securities markets dating back to stigler journal of political economy 69 1961 213 225 journal of business 37 1964 117 142 argues that trading will tend to centralize in major market centers such as the new york stock exchange nyse the nyse s recent mergers with archipelago and euronext bring questions about the viability and effects of competition between stock exchanges to the policy forefront we examine the largely forgotten but unparalleled episode of competition between the nyse and the consolidated stock exchange of new york consolidated from 1885 to 1926 the consolidated averaged 23 of nyse volume for approximately forty years by operating a second market for the most liquid securities that traded on the big board our results suggest that nyse bid ask spreads fell by more than 10 when the consolidated began to trade nyse stocks and subsequently increased when the consolidated ceased operations the empirical analysis suggests that this historical episode of stock market competition improved consumer welfare by an amount equivalent to us 9 6 billion today

money as a medium of exchange in an economy with artificially intelligent agents abstract we study the exchange economies of kiyotaki and wright 1989 in which agents must use a commodity or fiat money as a medium of exchange if trade is to occur our agents are artificially intelligent and are modeled as using classifier systems to make decisions in the assignment of credit within the classifier systems we introduce some innovations designed to study sequential decision problems in a multi agent environment for most economies that we have simulated trading and consumption patterns converge to a stationary nash equilibrium even if agents start with random rules in economies with multiple equilibria the only equilibrium that emerges in our simulations is the one in which goods with low storage costs play the role of medium of exchange i e the fundamental equilibrium of kiyotaki and wright

does order preferencing matter 1we would like to thank david easley eugene kandel the referee g william schwert the editor participants at the dealer markets conference at ohio state university and an anonymous referee for helpful comments we gratefully acknowledge financial support from the johnson graduate school of management and the national science foundation 1 abstract this study examines how order preferencing affects the competitiveness and efficiency of laboratory financial markets we operationalize preferencing by allowing some dealers to execute a portion of the order flow by matching the most favorable quotes available increasing the proportion of order flow that is preferenced can increase bid ask spreads reduce the informational efficiency of prices and benefit dealers at the expense of liquidity traders preferencing has none of these effects however when two or more dealers are not receiving preferencing orders preferencing may significantly degrade market performance if preferencing arrangements affect all or virtually all dealers

quotes order flow and price discovery the goal of this article is to examine the impact of 1975 congressional mandate to integrate the trading of nyse listed stocks the conclusions are most of the time the new york stock exchange nyse quote matches or determines the best displayed quote and the nyse is the most frequent initiator of quote changes non nyse markets attract a significant portion of their volume when they are posting inferior bids or offers indicating they obtain order flow for other reasons such as payment for order flow yet when a non nyse market does post a better bid or offer it does attract additional order flow

learning and price volatility in duopoly models of resource depletion the aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical model that can account for price fluctuations in depletable resource markets we do so by introducing learning into a hotelling style duopoly model of optimal resource depletion before the depletable resource becomes scarce the self confirming equilibrium of the model mirrors noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium in that supply is high and price is low although learning does induce occasional upward price spikes that are followed by a long period of falling price once the depletable resource becomes scarce the dynamics of the market change significantly with the self confirming equilibrium mirroring the cooperative rather than noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium supply is low and price is high price spikes still occur but against a background of increasing prices when scarcity is sufficient then the market is permanently in a self confirming equilibrium that is equivalent to cooperative rational expectations equilibrium

third market broker dealers cost competitors or cream skimmers this article compares the bid ask spread for new york stock exchange nyse listed securities before and after a major third market broker dealer bernard l madoff investment securities madoff begins to selectively purchase and execute orders in those securities tests reveal the quoted bid ask spread tightens when madoff enters the market furthermore trading costs as measured by the difference between the transaction price and the midpoint of the contemporaneous bid ask spread do not increase together these results suggest that the adverse selection problem associated with allowing agents to selectively execute orders in exchange listed securities may be economically insignificant

does buffer stock saving explain the smoothness and excess sensitivity of consumption one of the lasting contributions to modernday consumer theory is the idea that consumption is determined by the expected value of lifetime resources or permanent income the modern day specification of this concept is typically presented as a special case of intertemporalchoice theory where felicity functions are quadratic labor income is stochastic there are no restrictions on borrowing consumers have infinite horizons and expectations are formed rationally we refer to this model as the permanentincome hypothesis pih although the pih has considerable intuitive appeal a series of influential papers published after its inception revealed two notable discrepancies between the model s predictions and aggregate data first the model predicts that consumption growth should be more volatile than income growth if aggregate income growth has positive serial correlation as the quarterly data suggest it does yet aggregate consumption growth is in fact much smoother than aggregate income growth angus deaton 1987 john y campbell and deaton 1989 jordi gali 1991 second the pih predicts that consumption changes should be orthogonal to predictable or lagged income changes yet the coffelation between consumption growth and lagged income growth has been found to be one of the most robust features of aggregate data for example marjorie a flavin 1981 alan s blinder and deaton 1985 campbell and n gregory mankiw 1989 orazio p attanasio and guglielmo weber 1993 thus aggregate consumption growth has been described as exhibiting two puzzles it is both excessively smooth relative to current labor income growth and excessively sensitive to lagged labor income growth 2 in response to these and other empirical anomalies researchers have recently sought out modifications of the pih framework chief ludvigson federal reserve bank of new york 33 liberty street new york ny 10045 michaelides university of cyprus p o box 20537 1678 nicosia cyprus a previous version of this paper appeared under the title can we explain the consumption excesses yet aggregate consumption implications of buffer stock saving behavior for many helpful comments we thank orazio attanasio dave backus ben bernanke john y campbell christopher carroll todd clark angus deaton pierreolivier gourinchas bo honore james kahn martin lettau costas meghir christina paxson steve pischke andrew samwick christopher sims mark watson guglielmo weber michael woodford steve zeldes and two anonymous referees conference participants at the national bureau of economic research summer workshop on the aggregate implications of microeconomic consumption behavior july 1998 the tmr workshop on saving and pensions center tilburg university march 1999 and the new york area macroeconomics workshop october 1998 seminar participants at columbia university insead the new york federal reserve university college london london business school city university business school university of cyprus tel aviv university and jeffrey brown for excellent research assistance the views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the federal reserve bank of new york or the federal reserve system any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors 1 note that the important insight of danny quah 1990 that individuals may be better able than econometricians to distinguish short run from long run innovations to their income cannot resolve the excess smoothness puzzle laid out in campbell and deaton 1989 these authors show that in the context of the pih excess sensitivity and excess smoothness are the same phenomena in addition campbell 1987 demonstrates that superior information of the type emphasized by quah will show up in households saving behavior and using this information allows the econometrician to control for the agent s private information when predicting income since excess sensitivity is well established and controlling for saving does not eliminate it see campbell and deaton 1989 the observed smoothness of consumption cannot be explained by superior information on the part of permanent income consumers see deaton 1992 for further discussion 2 philippe bacchetta and stefan gerlach 1997 and ludvigson 1999 document another kind of excess sensitivity the correlation between consumption growth and predictable changes in consumer credit although we do not explore these findings here ludvigson finds that a bufferstock model with time varying liquidity constraints can replicate such a correlation

on money as a medium of exchange we analyze economies in which individuals specialize in consumption and production and meet randomly over time in a way that implies that trade must be bilateral and quid pro quo nash equilibria in trading strategies are characterized certain goods emerge endogenously as media of exchange or commodity money depending both on their intrinsic properties and on extrinsic beliefs there are also equilibria with genuine fiat currency circulating as the general medium of exchange we find that equilibria are not generally pareto optimal and that introducing fiat currency into a commodity money economy may unambiguously improve welfare velocity acceptability and liquidity are discussed

estimating potential output as a latent variable this article proposes a new method for estimating potential output in which potential real gross domestic product gdp is modeled as an unobserved stochastic trend and deviations of gdp from potential affect inflation through an aggregate supply relationship the output and inflation equations together form a bivariate unobserved components model which is estimated via maximum likelihood through the use of the kalman filter algorithm the procedure yields a measure of potential output and its standard error and an estimate of the quantitative response of inflation to real growth and the output gap

the price is right but are the bids an investigation of rational decision theory the television game show the price is right is used as a laboratory to conduct a preference free test of rational decision theory in an environment with substantial economic incentives it is found that contestants strategies are transparently suboptimal in response to this evidence simple rules of thumb are developed that are shown to explain observed bidding patterns better than rational decision theory further learning during the show reduces the frequency of strategic errors this is interpreted as evidence of bounded rationality finally there is no evidence that a concern for fairness significantly alters bidding behavior copyright 1996 by american economic association

life cycle saving insights from the perspective of bounded rationality this paper provides a new life cycle model that takes into account key elements of bounded rationality the paper shows that the model can account for patterns in the data that are hard to explain by the standard life cycle model among other patterns the model predicts that typically the young either hold no equity or their equity portfolio share is rather low and then increases over working life the analytical solution of the model demonstrates its high degree of tractability

does the limit order routing decision matter we examine the impact deciding to route limit orders away from the new york stock exchange nyse has on three dimensions of execution quality with methodologies controlling for market conditions and order submission strategies overall differences in limit order execution quality between regional stock exchanges and the nyse are small suggesting that the order routing decision may not affect retail limit order traders substantively conditioning on the distance between the limit order s price and prevailing quotes however reveals systematic differences in execution quality this implies that brokers can strategically route limit orders to improve retail limit order execution quality copyright 2002 oxford university press

preferencing internalization of order flow and tacit collusion evidence from experiments this paper examines preferencing arrangements and tacit collusion in laboratory asset markets in the experiments dealers may internalize by matching the best quote or by passing orders to the dealer posting the best quote although some markets were highly competitive several markets reached a collusive equilibrium with wide spreads and near complete intemalization of order flow the paper further examines the role of market transparency and passed order flow on quote setting behavior and suggests that these affect the mechanism leading to tacitly collusive equilibria

estimating the neutral real interest rate in an emerging market economy this study estimates the neutral real interest rate and output gap jointly under two different multivariate unobserved components models in the analyses kalman filter is applied to a small scale macroeconomic model of the turkish economy to estimate the unobserved variables for the period 1989 to 2005 in addition two alternative specifications for neutral real interest rate are exploited in the analyses the first model uses a simple random walk model for the neutral rate whereas the second one employs more structural specification which specifically links the neutral rate with the trend growth rate and the long term course of the risk premium by adapting the model proposed by laubach and williams 2003 to allow for small open economy consideration model evaluations clearly indicate the use of more structural specification against random walk specification results point out that the variation in the long term course of the risk premium could be an important determinant of the neutral real interes

an empirical study of the effect of rule 19c 3 the extent to which all orders for common stocks should be consolidated that is sent to a single marketplace and the effect of consolidation on competition in the securities markets have been the subject of much debate in the past quarter century this debate has focused on offboard trading restrictions for member firms for example new york stock exchange nyse rule 390 and american stock exchange amex rule 5 and on the institution of appropriate intermarket linkages for example the consolidated transactions tape the consolidated quotations system and the intermarket trading system while the securities and exchange commission sec has attempted to promote competition in the securities markets the results of its efforts are uncertain consequently the consolidation fragmentation debate continues in this article we examine a very specific case in which the sec tried to increase the degree of competition in market making rule 19c 3 allowed off board trading of nyse listed stocks by exchange members as we will show this rule had both beneficial and adverse effects section i describes rule 19c 3 the environment which led to its introduction and the controversy surrounding it in section ii we examine the effect of rule 19c 3 on over the counter otc market making activity we find that for about 34 percent of the eligible stocks the introduction of exchange member market makers increased the total level and also the continuity of otc market making activity in section iii we find that rule 19c 3 has had a statistically significant effect in reducing percentage bidask spreads which ceteris paribus is desirable in section iv our analysis shows that rule 19c 3 has led to an increase in returns variance which ceteris paribus is undesirable finally our summary and conclusion are presented in section v

the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income estimates from panel data on households we investigate the stochastic relation between income and consumption specifically consumption of food within a panel of about 2 000 households our major findings are 1 consumption responds much more strongly to permanent than to transitory movements of income 2 the response to transitory income is nonetheless clearly positive 3 a simple test independent of our model of consumption rejects a central implication of the pure life cycle permanent income hypothesis the observed covariation of income and consumption is compatible with pure life cycle permanent income behavior on the part of80 percent of families and simple proportionality of consumption and income among the remaining 20 percent as a general matter our findings support the view that families respond differently to different sources of income variations in particular temporary income tax policies have smaller effects on consumption than do other more permanent changes in income of the same magnitude this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

rules of thumb in games abstract a steady state random matching game model is proposed in which rules of thumb which assign strategies to individual games are the units of choice for individuals costs which reflect complexity or difficulty of use are associated with the rules independently of the games in which they are employed a population equilibrium is a distribution of rules across the population of players such that no individual has an incentive to change rules given the current distribution examples illustrate the concept and existence is demonstrated

make take structure and market quality evidence from the u s options markets we examine the make take structure which compensates liquidity suppliers and charges liquidity demanders in the options markets where it competes with a traditional structure that uses payments for order flow using the introduction of the make take structure as an event we find that execution costs including fees for liquidity demanders decline after the event for the affected options that the make take structure encourages market makers to improve quoted prices and that brokers change their routing behavior to include fees in the routing decision the decline in execution costs is consistent with the benefits of the increased quote competition from the make take structure prevailing over the fees the structure charges to liquidity demanders this paper was accepted by wei jiang finance

permanent income current income and consumption evidence from two panel data sets in this article i estimate euler equations that is the first order conditions of the consumers maximization problem using data from two data sets consumption data are taken from the consumer expenditure survey income data are taken from the panel study of income dynamics because the data for the estimation come from two samples i use a generalization of the instrumental variables estimator the two sample instrumental variables estimator i find evidence that consumption is excessively sensitive to predictable income growth the estimates of the coefficient of excess sensitivity for three consumption measures range from 2 to 5

payments for order flow on nasdaq we present a model of nasdaq that includes the two ways in which marketmakers compete for order f low quotes and direct payments brokers in our model can execute small trades through a computerized system preferencing arrangements with marketmakers or vertical integration into market making the comparative statics in our model differ from those of the traditional model of dealer markets which does not capture important institutional features of nasdaq we also show that the empirical evidence is inconsistent with the traditional model which suggests that preferencing and vertical integration are important components in understanding nasdaq

exponential growth bias and household finance exponential growth bias is the pervasive tendency to linearize exponential functions when assessing them intuitively we show that exponential growth bias can explain two stylized facts in household finance the tendency to underestimate an interest rate given other loan terms and the tendency to underestimate a future value given other investment terms bias matters empirically more biased households borrow more save less favor shorter maturities and use and benefit more from financial advice conditional on a rich set of household characteristics there is little evidence that our measure of exponential growth bias merely proxies for broader financial sophistication what drives household financial decisions the canonical economic model assumes that consumers choose to consume borrow or save based on their preferences their expectations and the costs and benefits of borrowing and saving a growing body of work applies insights from psychology to enrich specifications of three of the model s key pieces preferences expectations and problem solving conditional on parameter values 1 in this paper we bring psychological evidence to bear on a fourth specification issue how consumers perceive the costs and benefits of borrowing and saving we begin by tying together existing and new evidence on these cost perceptions to show that most consumers err systematically when given information commonly available in the market on the saving side consumers display future value bias a systematic tendency to underestimate a future value given