employment generation potential of new technology based firms during a recessionary period the case of finland this article analyzes the employment generation potential of new technology based firms during a recessionary period the empirical data is from finland a country that was hit particularly hard by the economic recession between years 1990 and 1993 in spite of the recession the number of ntbfs new technology based firms rose by 17 from 1986 to 1993 in traditional manufacturing industry branches the overall employment fell by as much as 33 during the same period alternative hypotheses to explain the increase in the importance of ntbfs are presented and discussed in the light of research findings both flexible specialization and recession push hypotheses receive support in the empirical data

fixed investment and economic growth new results on causality this study re examines the issue of causality between investment shares and economic growth a methodology is applied based on arellano and bond 1991 and holtz eakin newey and rosen 1988 to quinquennial panel data on growth and investment shares for the post war period and shows that contrary to previous results in the literature causality between fixed investment and growth runs in both directions investment shares granger cause growth rates and growth rates granger cause investment shares granger causality from investment shares to growth rates is found to be negative the result is in contrast with a capital fundamentalist view which sees fixed investment as the key to long run growth but is fully consistent with the predictions of solow type growth models

do external grants to district governments discourage own revenue generation a look at local public finance dynamics in ghana summary using rich panel data on all of ghana s districts local public finances over 11 years this paper investigates the way that intergovernmental and other transfers to local governments affect local governments incentives to collect internally generated revenues and funds igf we find that despite an incentive scheme built into one of the major intergovernmental grants the flow of all grants taken together discourages rather than encourages igf this is reflected both in the depressing effect of transfers on igf levels as well as on igf growth

births deaths and marriages in the u s commercial banking industry i introduction the twentieth century witnessed two periods of dramatic regulatory and structural change in the u s banking industry the great depression and the events of the 1980s and 1990s while many important regulations were enacted during the great depression the 1980s and 1990s experienced the repeal or reversal of most depression era financial regulations the 1980s and early 1990s experienced severe financial turbulence the savings and loan crisis followed by another crisis in the commercial banking industry those crises led to failure rates among financial institutions not seen since the great depression as a consequence the 1980s and 1990s saw deregulation that transformed the banking industry from one with much geographic limitation on banking and branching to one now characterized by interstate banking and branching 1 the theory of industrial organization addresses several stylized facts or empirical regularities of industry dynamics 1 entry is common 2 entry is small scale 3 survival is low probability and 4 entry and exit are highly correlated dunne et al 1988 and pepall et al 2002 chap 6 provide more details moreover the fourth empirical regularity contradicts standard microeconomic theory where entry associates with high performing profitable expanding industries and exit associates with low performing unprofitable contracting industries the empirical evidence implies that the process resembles a lottery where many firms buy tickets i e enter the market most firms eventually lose i e exit the market and only a few firms win i e stay in the market in other words long term permanent penetration into an existing market presents significant barriers and thus few new firms succeed because incumbent firms possess significant advantages urban et al 1984 and pepall et al 2002 chap 6 provide additional discussion the commercial banking industry during the recent two decade period of deregulation experienced those standard empirical regularities with some variations that is entry occurred frequently and involved small banks generally only a minority of those banks survived the number of entries and exits both increased dramatically during the past two decades although exits typically exceeded entries as the number of banks traversed a downward trend in addition exits in the regulated banking industry mostly involve mergers even for failing banks 2 the u s commercial banking industry possessed institutional characteristics that affect how the industry dynamics corresponded to and differed from those empirical regularities first the founding fathers exhibited much concern about preventing concentrations of power they adopted rules and regulations in an attempt to prevent such concentrations of power from emerging that concern bore fruit in the banking industry in the peculiar pattern of bank charters a dual banking system and the regulation of banking activity on a geographic basis thus as we entered the last two decades of the twentieth century the united states possessed many more banks per capita than most other countries in the world 3 the deregulation of geographic restrictions on banking activity expectedly led to a decline in the number of banks thus although both entries and exits played a significant role over the past two decades exits exceeded entries so that the total number of banks fell as noted second the banking industry plays a critical role in any nation s economy the loss of confidence in the banking industry that led to subsequent bank panics and runs provided the typical scenario for recession and depression throughout the nineteenth century 4 consequently the banking industry in the twentieth century exhibited significant control on entry and exit by the various banking regulators that is the number of bank entries and exits fell below those that would have naturally occurred in an unregulated banking industry

job creation process in a transition economy in many european countries sme policy is close to being a synonym for job creation most empirical research on the job generation potential of small firms over the last decade has been done in the stable and favorable economic conditions of market economies the paper investigates the role of small firms in more difficult circumstances on an empirical data set for slovenia the paper tries to show that small firms have been the most important employer during the transition period a finding that very likely can be extrapolated for other european transition economies over the last decade slovenia has transformed from a labor managed economic system to a market oriented economy if we compare the firm size structure in a socialist like economy to the firm size structure in a mature market economy close to equilibrium we notice a typical absence of small and medium sized firms with the exception of craft shops that was how slovenia appeared in the early nineties charac terized by the removal of administrative barriers transition encouraged a spontaneous entrepreneurial wave through an expanding small business sector the ensuing changes in employment distribution changed the firm size structure

the revenues expenditures nexus panel data evidence from swedish municipalities this paper examines the dynamic relationship between local government revenues and expenditures in sweden results from a panel of 265 municipalities covered over the time period 1974 87 show that i expenditures cause revenues while revenues do not cause expenditures ii intergovernmental grants both cause and are caused by expenditures and revenues iii lags of four years are needed to describe the dynamics among the fiscal variables and iv the parameters of the expenditures equation are time varying these results cast doubt on static modeling of local government activities and on models imposing time invariant parameters without ever testing for it

history s role in coordinating decentralized allocation decisions what causes individual suppliers to allocate goods in such a way that the aggregate allocation satisfies the law of one price a satisfactory answer to this question must confront two related problems equal net prices at all allocations provide no information to suppliers about the quantity to deliver to a specific location and strategic uncertainty makes an observed violation of the law of one price an unreliable indicator of a profit opportunity this paper develops a simple analytical framework to formalize these two problems reviews some solutions found in the literature and reports laboratory evidence on how people solve them in addressing these issues we focus on the role historical prices play in coordinating decentralized allocation decisions

accounting for net entry into greek manufacturing by establishments of varying size adopting the view that size matters in understanding entry exit patterns this research explores the nature and causes of net entry patterns of various size defined groups of establishments in the case of a less industrialised country greece the hypothesis to be tested is that the determinants of entry are not independent of firm size throughout this paper the analysis has had to confront difficulties arising from the use of net entry rates defined at the size class level the degree of size disaggregation used in this paper is considerably finer than used before five employment defined size classes have been used instead of sliding cut off points discriminating between small and large firms unlike other research using pooled models to explain variation in entry exit rates across industries the data used here are characterised by the absence of significant industry specific systematic variation overall the results obtained in this paper indicate that there is a gradation in the responses of different size classes to stimuli defined at the industry level evidence is offered that small firms are different in that they manage to overcome entry barriers perhaps adopting different survival strategies and that large firms are well aware of market conditions and are in an advantageous position to overcome many of the problems imposed by entry barriers size classes in the middle of the size class distribution offer a rather mixed result due to size related advantages and disadvantages

aggregation and social choice a mean voter theorem a celebrated result of black 1948a demonstrates the existence of a simple majority winner when preferences are single peaked the social choice follows the preferences of the median voter the median voter s most preferred outcome beats any alternative however this conclusion does not extend to elections in which candidates differ in more than one dimension this paper provides a multi dimensional analog of the median voter result we provide conditions under which the mean voter s most preferred outcome is unbeatable according to a 64 majority rule the conditions supporting this result represent a significant generalization of caplin and nalebuff 1988 the proof of our mean voter result uses a mathematical aggregation theorem due to prekopa 1971 1973 and borell 1975 this theorem has broad applications in economics an application to the distribution of income is described at the end of this paper results on imperfect competition are presented in the companion paper caplin and nalebuff 1991

simple and clever decision rules for a model of evolution abstract under the decision rule specified by kandori mailath and rob 1993 kandori m mailath g j rob r 1993 learning mutation and long run equilibria in games econometrica 61 29 56 myopic adjustment can lead to surprising results including coordination on strictly dominated strategies we show that under an alternative decision rule convergence to nash equilibrium is guaranteed moreover if rare mutations are introduced risk dominant equilibria always correspond to long run equilibria

entry barriers exit and sunk costs an analysis the relationship between entry rates entry barriers and sunk costs are examined across a set of four digit industry data results indicate that product differentiation barriers reduce entry rates and sunk capital costs reduce exit rates whether entry and exit are truly simultaneous however is not clear

jobs and the business life cycle in the uk there have been a number of statistical studies in recent years of the firm life cycle its effects on employment and the role of small firms in the job generation process they have all followed the changes which take place in a population of firms through time birch based his usa national analysis on the dun and bradstreet computer files for 5 6 million establishments covering 80 of all private sector employment and some of his findings were of a controversial nature most british studies to date have been limited to single regions looking at aspects of job generation in detail there is now a series of local studies for the regions of glasgow the midlands cleveland manchester and merseyside the dti ganguly 1982a has carried out an important national study based on vat data and a sectoral study macey 1982 of manufacturing the study described here used the data of dun and bradstreet uk the commercial credit rating market research and information company to estimate job generation pe

energy gdp relationship revisited an example from gcc countries using panel causality abstract this work investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product gdp and energy consumption in the six countries of the gulf cooperation council gcc recently developed panel cointegration and causality techniques are used to uncover the direction of energy gdp causality in the gcc empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption evidence shows no support for the hypothesis that energy consumption is the source of gdp growth in the gcc countries such results suggest that energy conservation policies may be adopted without much concern about their adverse effects on the growth of gcc economies

what factors inspire the high entry flow in taiwan s manufacturing industries a count entry model approach why is the entry flow of the manufacturing sector extremely high in taiwan and does it contribute to the prevailing entrepreneurship this article aims to explore what factors inspire potential entrants to go into an industry based on a theoretical formulation of the poisson probability entry model a count data model is employed to investigate the determinants of entry flows the empirical results reveal that traditional entry barriers indeed lower the entry flow the entry incentives including price cost margin and industry growth play a lesser role at attracting new firms while alternatively the market size acts as a better proxy of an entry incentive in explaining entry flows incumbents responses to entry r d and advertising intensity are found to be associated with a significant negative impact on entry flows this article also finds that there is a higher bound of covariate of entry about 10 that can be attributed to the immeasurable personality of entrepreneurs entrepreneurship rather b

a folk theorem for minority games we study a particular case of repeated games with public signals in the stage game an odd number of players have to choose simultaneously one of two rooms the players who choose the less crowded room receive a reward of one euro whence the name minority game the players in the same room do not recognize each other and between the stages only the current majority room is publicly announced we show that in the infinitely repeated game any feasible payoff can be achieved as a uniform equilibrium payoff and as an almost sure equilibrium payoff in particular we construct an inefficient equilibrium where with probability one all players choose the same room at almost all stages this equilibrium is sustained by punishment phases which use in an unusual way the pure actions that were played before the start of the punishment

rules of thumb for social learning this paper studies agents who consider the experiences of their neighbors in deciding which of two technologies to use we analyze two learning environments one in which the same technology is optimal for all players and another in which each technology is better for some of them in both environments players use exogenously specified rules of thumb that ignore historical data but may incorporate a tendency to use the more popular technology in some cases these naive rules can lead to fairly efficient decisions in the long run but adjustment can be slow when a superior technology is first introduced

do business cycles affect state appropriations to higher education 1 introduction and motivation business cycles affect higher education in a number of important ways anecdotal evidence from college admissions officers and administrators as well as empirical evidence on the behavior of students and institutions of higher education suggest that enrollment in higher education is countercyclical for example betts and mcfarland 1995 recently showed that enrollments in community colleges are highly responsive to changes in local labor market conditions these authors found a 1 increase in the unemployment rate among all adults associated with a 4 increase in enrollment at community colleges in a large panel of community colleges across the united states leslie and ramey 1986 found a similar relationship between economic conditions and enrollment using data aggregated to the regional level this paper examines the relationship between state appropriations to higher education and state specific measures of business cycle conditions in order to better understand the effects of the business cycle on government funding of higher education 1 i further investigate the relationship between the business cycle and state government appropriations to higher education reported by betts and mcfarland 1995 and leslie and ramey 1986 both of these studies aggregated state and local government appropriations to higher education to the regional and national level while data aggregated to the regional and national levels are readily available decisions about government funding to higher education are made at the state and local levels and these decisions may be affected more by local economic conditions than by aggregate economic conditions if the timing of turning points in the business cycle varies across states then aggregating government appropriations data across states may obscure important statespecific phenomena most research has focused on the effects of economic conditions on demand for higher education one notable exception is leslie and ramey 1986 who examined the relationship between enrollment business cycles and state appropriations to higher education using regional appropriations and enrollment data and a national measure of business cycle conditions that study found a procyclical relationship between the nber coincident index and regional level government appropriations to higher education for one region the estimated elasticity of appropriations with respect to changes in the coincident index was three suggesting that a 1 change in the nber coincident index was associated with a 3 change in appropriations to higher education in that region this study also highlighted the complex relationship between state funding for higher education enrollment and business cycle conditions by documenting a statistically significant relationship between enrollment and state appropriations at the regional level although they found that the appropriations enrollment relationship weakened after 1977 betts and mcfarland 1995 also describe in an informal way using aggregate data a procyclical relationship between the business cycle and funding for higher education these authors report that aggregate state and local government appropriations to higher education fell in the years 1971 1975 1980 1982 as well as in several years in the early 1990s all of these years are either coincident with or immediately following years when the nber dating committee has identified a cyclical downturn in the economy the transmission mechanism linking business cycles and government appropriations to higher education during recessionary periods seems clear recessions reduce tax revenues state and local governments most of which operate under legally required balanced budget restrictions reduce appropriations to institutions of higher education as well as other types of expenditures in order to balance their budgets betts and mcfarland point out that these cyclical patterns of government support for higher education may place tremendous financial pressure on institutions of higher education during economic downturns because the cuts in government funding happen at the same time enrollments are increasing

wage and competition channels of foreign direct investment and new firm entry using a rich data set of the dutch manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2010 we investigate the effect of foreign direct investment fdi on domestic new firm entry the emerging empirical literature has focused on the direct relationship between fdi and entry but has not explored the mechanisms behind the observed effect drawing on a simultaneous equations model our analysis features both the direct effect of fdi as well as indirect effects through two channels industry competition and wages we estimate the parameters through 3sls and take into account the endogeneity of competition and wages with respect to entry our results show that there is a significant negative direct effect of fdi on entry at the same time fdi decreases competition and increases wage levels which then impact entry positively and negatively respectively the total effect of fdi is negative but small and virtually disappears after one year policy implications are discussed

determinants of inward investment in the uk a panel analysis this paper develops an inter industry model of inward investment using a fixed effects approach this demonstrates that when inward investment is investigated in such a framework previous findings relating to the specification of measures of location advantage and ownership advantages no longer hold this also shows that there are some industries that have attracted significant inward investment over time and continue to do so while others are noticeably less successful reasons for this and potential policy measures are briefly discussed

business cycles and the relationship between concentration and price cost margins using a newly constructed panel data base we examine changes in price cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981 a key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period we provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations this finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition the results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading

joint r d in low carbon technology development in china a case study of the wind turbine manufacturing industry abstract china faces the dual challenges of climate change and increased energy demand these challenges in turn increase the demand for wind energy development along with rapid growth in manufacturing capacity chinese companies have aspired to increase their innovation capacity in order to enhance their competitiveness in the market joint research and development r d is an attractive path for chinese companies striving to advance their r d capacity this paper examines joint r d between chinese wind turbine manufacturing companies and foreign design firms assessing the performance of joint r d activities in china using the structure conduct performance scp framework the study found that joint r d has improved chinese companies technical capacity human resources and financial growth however the effect on chinese companies innovation capacity is still limited because of unequal technical capacities of the two sides in collaboration as well as their preference for augmenting profits rather than technical capacity current joint r d mode is only the extension of licensing mode in wind turbine manufacturing industry

trade unions and employment change an analysis of british establishment data few explanations of the changing employment structures of industrialised countries have omitted some reference to the role of trade unions for some commentators it is the unions ability to raise wages above their natural market level that constitutes a brake on employment growth by increasing the employer s costs and making product prices uncompetitive for others it is the unions power to impose uneconomic working practices upon management that leads to decline or lack of growth of the organisation for a discussion see freeman and medoff 1984 mayhew 1983 empirical testing of these and other lines of explanation has been hampered in britain by lack of suitable datasets while employment data are detailed and widely available systematic and reliable information on the extent of trade union influence has been restricted to reported membership levels for broad industry groups see for example bain and price 1983 pencavel 1974 the coverage of collective bargaining derived from earnings surveys see for example mulvey 1976 layard metcalf and nickel1 1978 and the extent and frequency of strike action see for example smith et al 1978 j the availability of a new series of nationally representative surveys at the establishment level has enabled us to obtain new insights into the relationship between changes in employment and trade union organisation at the point where such relationships arguably occur the place of work the

anonymous games with binary actions abstract in many economic decision problems the preferences of economic agents depend on the numbers or proportions of individuals choosing the same decision or other decisions examples include network or congestion externalities location choices of firms the tourist s choice of a vacation destination the visit of public events like concerts or the purchase of goods that are subject to fashion in this article the relating equilibrium characterization and selection questions are formulated and solved in terms of anonymous games with a continuum of players facing a binary decision problem journal of economic literature classification numbers c72 d62

modelling entrepreneurship unifying the equilibrium and entry exit approach two approaches can be distinguished with respect to modelling entrepreneurship i the approach focusing on the net development of the number of entrepreneurs in an equilibrium framework and ii the approach focusing on the entries and exits of entrepreneurs in this paper we unify these approaches to arrive at a model explaining the equilibrium and actual number of entrepreneurs and the entry and exit rate of entrepreneurs simultaneously and consistently we apply our unified approach to the netherlands using self employment data for the 1960 1999 period we find error correction of about 20 per year and a very different situation in terms of disequilibrium before and after the early 1980s periods of high unemployment appear to be characterized by both high entry and high exit rates

learning information and sorting in market entry games theory and evidence previous data from experiments on market entry games n player games where each player faces a choice between entering a market and staying out appear inconsistent with either mixed or pure nash equilibria here we show that in this class of game learning theory predicts sorting that is in the long run agents play a pure strategy equilibrium with some agents permanently in the market and some permanently out we conduct experiments with a larger number of repetitions than in previous work in order to test this prediction we find that when subjects are given minimal information only after close to 100 periods do subjects begin to approach equilibrium in contrast with full information subjects learn to play a pure strategy equilibrium relatively quickly however the information which permits rapid convergence revelation of the individual play of all opponents

births deaths nexus of firms estimating var with panel data this paper investigates dynamic interrelationships between the births and deaths of firms at the level of the 88 finnish subregions during 1989 1993 the births deaths nexus of firms is analysed using vector autoregressions var and an instrumental variable estimator the main findings are first that the firm births equation has a two year lag structure which means that firm deaths cause firm births and firm births cause subsequent births following two year lags and second that according to the firm deaths equation which has a one year lag structure firm births do not cause firm deaths but firm deaths cause subsequent deaths a further finding is that the use of the ordinary least squares estimator produces inconsistent and clearly different results from those produced by the instrumental variable estimator

fiscal dynamics of local elected officials the fiscal behavior of local elected officials is examined in a dynamic model where officials maximize an intertemporal objective function in two stages officials first decide upon an optimal mix of revenue and expenditure and then minimize loss and adjustment cost functions the model is tested using data from the 20 most populated u s cities whose mayor was elected on a four year cycle the empirical results support the model fiscal behavior differs between cities and local fiscal decisions made by elected officials are in part dependent on the timing of elections

the revenues expenditures nexus evidence from local government data this paper examines the intertemporal linkages between local government expenditures and revenues the main results that emerge from an analysis of fiscal data from 171 municipal governments over the period 1972 80 are that 1 one or two years are sufficient to summarize the relevant dynamic interrelationships 2 there are important intertemporal linkages between expenditures taxes and grants and 3 past revenues help predict current expenditures but past expenditures do not alter the future path of revenues this last finding is contrary to results that have emerged from previous analyses of federal fiscal data copyright 1989 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

causality and comovement between taxes and expenditures historical evidence from argentina brazil and mexico abstract this paper presents empirical tests for stationarity of fiscal deficits for three latin america countries it also examines the causality patterns between government expenditures and government revenues long historical series covering most of the 20th century for argentina brazil and mexico are used the findings suggest that deficits were stationary in argentina and mexico but not in brazil

an examination of the dynamic behaviour of local governments using gmm bootstrapping methods an examination of the dynamic behavior of local governments using gmm bootstrapping methods

competitive and responsible the relationship between corporate social and financial performance in the energy sector abstract our key research objective in this study is to examine whether investments in corporate social responsibility csr have an effect on corporate financial performance cfp or vice versa the context is the energy industry in which sustainability issues are of vital importance our data set is compiled from the kld database and thomson one we use panel data on energy sector companies covering the years 1991 and 2009 in order to assess granger causality between csr strengths concerns and cfp we consider strengths and concerns separately and use both accounting and market based measures of cfp our findings indicate differing impacts on financial performance csr concerns granger cause both profitability and market value whereas csr strengths seem only to granger cause market value these effects appear after different delays furthermore as cfp does not seem to granger cause csp in most of the model specifications our results do not support bidirectional causality between csp and cfp

separability and risk in the static household production model the household production model highlights the possible interdependence of consumption and production decisions in the farm household the structure of this interdependence significantly affects the analytics both theoretical and econometric of farm households singh squire and straus 20 have an excellent discussion of this interdependence and its methodological implications a particular type of interdependence called interchangeably recursiveness or separability allows production decisions to be made independently of consumption decisions although the latter depends on the former through the budget constraint this separability is of interest because it justifies a large number of well developed methodological approaches in farm household studies among these being the various duality theory approaches sasaki and maruyama 19 and jorgenson and lau 10 both and independently found the existence of perfectly competitive goods and factor markets to be sufficient for the existence of separability under deterministic conditions while there are a large number of things that can upset this result even in the deterministic setting e g nonhomogeneity of labor as in kuroda and yotopoulos 13 and lopez 14 the recognition of the role of risk appears especially threatening to separability even in a competitive setting as pointed out by barnum and squire 1 if contingent claims markets exist or if households are risk neutral separability exists under risk situations but insurance markets may not exist and for many risks faced by the farming households could not unless heavily subsidized exist furthermore households have been variously shown to be risk averse 15 7 4 roe and graham tomasi 18 utilizing a multiplicative yield risk in the context of a dynamic model concluded that on the whole independence does not hold and estimating equations from certainty theory are not appropriate thus with respect to risk one can say that the die is loaded against separability this paper aims to show that there are risk specifications which allow separability for the household production model even in the absence of the contingent claims market in section ii we introduce the standard model of the household with commercial production it involves a household that produces an output which it partly consumes and partly sells in the market risk enters the revenue function either additively or multiplicatively we then introduce two definitions of separability in the sense of efficiency and in the sense of elasticity we show in section ii that additive risk whether on yield or on monetary revenue allows sepa

determinants of taiwan s trade liberalization the case of a newly industrialized country abstract this paper attempts to account for the success of policy reform in taiwan s trade liberalization through an investigation of the periods 1986 92 and 1992 95 the objective is to undertake an empirical examination of haggard et al s the political feasibility of adjustment in developing countries development centre of the oecd oecd paris 1995 strategies for minimizing the political costs involved in implementing policy reforms empirical evidence supports the haggard et al arguments that is indirect compensation is used to facilitate the implementation of trade liberalization for downstream industries while the speed of trade liberalization within certain specific industries is comparatively slow furthermore in a democratic regime the pressure brought to bear by well organized domestic interest groups along with the pressure from international interest groups can strongly influence the pattern of trade liberalization policies

quasi concave composition functions with nonconcave argument functions the concavity assumption in the known composition mapping result may be too restrictive for certain applications in the household production model and trade theory the author shows how quasi concave composition functions are generated when among the arguments are nonconcave but still quasi concave functions copyright 1992 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

regret in the on line decision problem abstract at each point in time a decision maker must make a decision the payoff in a period from the decision made depends on the decision as well as on the state of the world that obtains at that time the difficulty is that the decision must be made in advance of any knowledge even probabilistic about which state of the world will obtain a range of problems from a variety of disciplines can be framed in this way in this paper we survey the main results obtained as well as some of their applications journal of economic literature classification numbers c70 c73

the dynamic adjustment of local government budgets does spain behave differently the aim of this article is to analyse whether spanish municipalities adjust in response to budget shocks and if so which elements of the budget they are more likely to adjust the methodology we use to answer these questions is a vector error correction model vecm estimated with data from a panel of spanish municipalities during the period 1988 to 2006 our results confirm that spanish municipalities do indeed make adjustments in response to fiscal shocks i e the deficit is stationary in the long run we compare our results with those obtained for us and germany to evaluate if the viability of local finance depends on the institutional arrangement and to analyse how it affects the adjustment patterns we observe that grants have a more important role in the adjustment process in environments where either they have an equalization objective or where there is no clear rule that determines their distribution this fact can generate a moral hazard problem governments tend to spend more due to the exp

job creation and job destruction by small firms an empirical investigation for the dutch manufacturing sector this paper studies the differences in behaviour of small and large firms concerning job creation and job destruction in the dutch manufacturing sector over the period 1978 1991 we find that both job creation and job destruction rates are higher in small firms than in large ones in addition we found that the persistence of jobs created in slumps are much higher for small firms than for large firms persistence rates of job destruction are however less connected to the state of the business cycle and increase with firm size more importantly small firms seem to reallocate their jobs in a continuous way as job turnover moves independent of the business cycle large firms on the other hand reallocate counter cyclically an obvious explanation for this phenomenon is that small firms are better equipped to adjust to shifts in economic circumstances large firms adjust only slowly and for them reallocating jobs in a recession is more advantageous than in a boom

learning with fixed rules the minority game abstract this paper gives a critical account of the literature on adaptive behaviour in the minority game a simple congestion game the literature has proposed a model which differs markedly from many standard learning models in that players are endowed with a fixed subset of behavioural rules or response modes which map the observed history to actions these rules need not have a behavioural interpretation or be derived from some form of optimizing behaviour nonetheless this model gives rise to behaviour that is close to equilibrium behaviour at the aggregate level the individual level behaviour predicted by the model seems to capture some aspects of observed experimental behaviour that are difficult to explain using standard models

aggregation and imperfect competition on the existence of equilibrium we present a new approach to the theory of imperfect competition and apply it to study price competition among differentiated products the central result provides general conditions under which there exists a pure strategy price equilibrium for any number of firms producing any set of products this includes products with multi dimen sional attributes in addition to the proof of existence we provide conditions for uniqueness our analysis covers location models the characteristics approach and probabilistic choice together in a unified framework to prove existence we employ aggregation theorems due to prekopa 1971 and borell 1975 our companion paper caplin and nalebuff 1991 introduces these theorems and develops the application to super majority voting rules we present a new approach to the theory of imperfect competition and apply it to study price competition among differentiated products the central result is that there exists a pure strategy price equilibrium for any number of firms producing any set of products in addition to the proof of existence we provide conditions for uniqueness our model both unites diverse strands of the earlier literature and opens up uncharted areas for future analysis in particular we expand the traditional one dimensional framework to allow for multi dimen sional product differentiation our approach involves twin restrictions on consumer preferences one on individuals preferences the other on the distribution of preferences across society these are generalizations of the restrictions supporting 64 majority rule presented in caplin and nalebuff 1988 to prove existence we apply a new technique of aggregation this technique is valuable in a variety of other problems in the companion paper we use the aggregation result to generalize our earlier work on 64 majority rule and to characterize the relationship between the distribution of human capital and the distribution of income caplin and nalebuff 1991 there are additional applications in statistics and in search theory we begin with a brief review of the early literature on imperfect competition describing in more detail the existence problem and previous solutions section 3 presents our twin assumptions and shows that they cover many standard cases in section 4 we introduce the aggregation theorem and use it in the analysis of demand functions the proof of existence of equilibrium is in section

moving forward balancing the financial and emotional costs of business failure why do owner managers delay business failure when it is financially costly to do so in this paper we acknowledge that delaying business failure can be financially costly to the owner manager and the more costly the delay the more difficult the recovery but we complement this financial perspective by introducing the notion of anticipatory grief as a mechanism for reducing the level of grief triggered by the failure event which reduces the emotional costs of business failure we propose that under some circumstances delaying business failure can help balance the financial and emotional costs of business failure to enhance an owner manager s overall recovery some persistence may be beneficial to recovery and promote subsequent entrepreneurial action

the dynamics of municipal fiscal adjustment abstract the dynamic fiscal policy adjustment of local jurisdictions is investigated empirically using a panel of more than 1000 u s municipalities over a quarter of a century distinguishing own source revenue grants expenditures and debt service the analysis is carried out using a vector error correction model which takes account of the intertemporal budget constraint the results indicate that a large part of the adjustment in response to fiscal imbalances takes place by offsetting changes in future expenditures in addition the results show that fiscal imbalances are financed to a significant extent by subsequent changes in grants decomposition of the sample according to average city population reveals that the basic pattern of fiscal adjustment is robust although intergovernmental grants play a much more pronounced role in maintaining budget balance for large cities

the determinants of smes market share in 1991 taiwan manufacturers small and medium sized enterprises smes have become increasingly popular in recent decades having caused concern among scholars of various areas our line of research focuses on the determinants of smes market share this study explores the topic base on taiwan s manufacturers data collected in 1991 our empirical results indicate that taiwan has witnessed smes becoming prosperous in manufacturing industries with higher relative labor productivity low entry barriers prosperous subcontracting activities and young ages our results indicate that in the transitory process of industrial development taiwan s smes no longer can afford high wage payments when at the same time the quality of labor does not increase accordingly as taiwan approaches the status of a developed economy the beneficiaries of export activities have changed unlike 1986 in 1991 there was a smaller share of smes in taiwan s export oriented industries furthermore smes benefited from their efforts to increase their automation status the emphasis on issues concerning environmental protection proved to be another source of entry barrier that kept smes from prospering certain similarities arise when comparing our conclusions with those of the u s canada germany and japan all of whom represent industrialized countries we can conclude that as taiwan matures in her industrial development process smes also struggle to a certain maturity in theirs

entry and exit from manufacturing industries symmetry turbulence and simultaneity some empirical evidence from greek manufacturing industries 1982 1988 the interdependence between entry and exit of firms into manufacturing industries is the focus of this research when both entry and exit equations are estimated separately the results support the existence of strong symmetry in their determinants when however entry and exit are estimated within a simultaneous equation framework the empirical evidence does not offer sufficient grounds to support the notion that entry and exit are simultaneously linked instead it seems that they are two contemporaneously related processes which respond in like fashion to the structural characteristics found in particular industries their linked response is also extended to factors unaccounted for by the individual entry and exit formulations and this expresses itself in significant contemporaneous correlation between the entry and exit equation residuals the change in the identities of firms operating implied by the positive correlation between entry and exit may then be attributed to industry turbulent condition