trends in unemployment duration data a method of estimating the distribution of uninterrupted unemploymentspells from aggregate unemployment data is outlined the methodology does not i mpose constant individual hazard rates and allows for heterogeneity characteris tics of the distribution of unemployment spells are then considered including ha zard rates measures of inequality such as gini coefficients and the fraction o f total unemployment associated with s weeks of unemploy ment the relationship between these char acteristics and labor demand variables gnp and supply side variables transfer payments unemployment insurance is considered in or der to better understand the relative role of short and long run unemployment copyright 1986 by mit press

shirking and sorting in a political market with finite lived politicians this paper analyzes principal agent slack in the context of a political market composed of voters challengers and incumbents the introduction of a last period via finite livedness in combination with voters imperfect information about politicians preferences causes time varying shirking behavior on the part of politicians political markets eventually sort out those politicians with significantly deviant policy preferences potentially providing a solution to the last period problem and enabling politicians to make credible commitments in the extreme sorting can insure that it is not worthwhile for potential shirkers to run for office a systematic relationship between political shirking and number of terms in office may exist and depends on how quickly sorting takes place we show that evidence of little if any shirking is quite consistent with politicians having diverse and strongly held policy preferences in addition if sorting is a significant feature of political markets cross sectional studies will tend to oversample little and non shirking politicians compared to longitudinal studies reinterpretations of existing empirical work are also discussed

agent compensation and the limits of bonding agents in positions of trust may engage in malfeasance which is difficult to detect this paper develops a model in which employers seek to control malfeasance by paying wages contingent on imperfect monitoring and agents may be required to pay entry fees or post bonds we conclude that entry fees which exceed agents assets are ineffective in controlling malfeasance as a result conditions exist in which it is optimal to pay agents more than their opportunity cost such conditions lead to an excess supply of applicants and allow employers to engage in discrimination at zero cost to themselves

effort observability and worker productivity towards an explanation of economic dualism this paper suggests an explanation of the wage and productivity differentials between formal and informal sectors in developing countries this explanation is based on differences in the observability of effort that arise from technological differences such as size of operation the authors argue that observability of effort is lower in the formal sector and then show that under reasonable conditions this leads to higher wages and higher effort productivity this is because with lower observability the marginal cost of effort is lower when existing employees are induced to work harder than when more workers are hired explanations for intersectoral differences in factor intensities and sector specific unemployment rates also follow from the authors basic assumptions copyright 1989 by royal economic society

industry specific human capital occupation and firm size evidence from taiwan this paper investigates the importance of various types of human capital and highlights the role played by industry tenure in determining wages in taiwan it also aims to offer possible explanations as to why industry specific human capital is much less significant than it is in the united states empirically it is found that other things being equal accumulating industry tenure decreases earnings for both the least skilled workers and those employed in mid sized firms industry specific skills are not yet deeply implemented in most occupations and firms of all sizes this might also account for the remarkable level of labor reallocation among industries that is observed in taiwan furthermore the capital stock accumulated through education is found to be the most crucial in determining wages in all estimations and a factor considered the engine of growth during the miraculous development of taiwan s economy however the importance of other types of human capital on earnings namely general labor market experience and firm specific human capital varies substantially across groups

the two faces of governance responses to legal uncertainty in u s firms 1955 to 1985 recent neoinstitutional analyses have associated the rapid diffusion of due process governance mechanisms in the american workplace with government pressure for equal employment opportunity and affirmative action we carry the argument forward in three ways first we focus on grievance procedures and employment at will clauses to show that the legalization process produces both rights enhancing and rights negating rules second we focus on the private for profit economic sector to test more effectively the efficiency and labor control theories that have fared poorly in previous neoinstitutional studies third we explore the interactions among personnel professionals lawyers and the state in the adoption of legalistic governance mechanisms results sustain the neoinstitutional argument but also offer new support for efficiency and labor control hypotheses

response to a comparative analysis of electricity generation costs from renewable fossil fuel and nuclear sources in g20 countries for the period 2015 2030 abstract recently ram et al 2018 published a study based on the earlier greenpeace report ram et al 2017 on the electricity generation costs from different sources commendably authors provided some details of their computations in the supplementary spreadsheet the cost of energy services is a serious consideration in combination with the need to decarbonize the global economy rapidly however the article by ram et al seems to have some shortcomings which should be fixed before further conclusions can be drawn from it i outline some reasons for my concern below

the measurement of labor force dynamics with longitudinal data the labour market activity survey filter this article explores the measurement of labor force dynamics using longitudinal data focusing in particular on the canadian labour market activity survey lmas which represents a potential advance in longitudinal data collection because it measures aspects of dynamics not available in existing panel data such as the panel study of income dynamics and the national longitudinal survey we examine the implications of the lmas questionnaire structure the lmas filter for the study of labor market dynamics and undertake simulations to provide a quantitative assessment of the importance of this filter for labor force spells and transitions between labor force states

the carry trade and fundamentals nothing to fear but feer itself the carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high yield target currencies and short in low yield funding currencies recently this nave trade has seen very high returns for long periods followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies based on low sharpe ratios and negative skew these trades could appear unattractive even when diversied across many currencies but more sophisticated conditional trading strategies exhibit more favorable payos we apply novel within economics binary outcome classication tests to show that our directional trading forecasts are informa tive and out of sample loss function analysis to examine trading performance the critical conditioning variable we argue is the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate feer expected returns are lower all else equal when the target currency is overvalued like traders researchers should incorporate this information when evaluating trading strategies when we do so some questions are resolved negative skewness is purged and market volatility vix is uncorrelated with returns other puzzles remain the more sophisticated strategy has a very high sharpe ratio suggesting market ineciency

work norms and involuntary unemployment consider the organizational environment of labor management wherein the firm can measure the average performance i e group work norm of its employees but has difficulty in observing the individual worker s performance within the group accordingly the worker s remuneration is based on the observed group norm because of the way in which workers interact among themselves in setting work norms there results an undersupply of effort from a given workforce size furthermore the group work norm is shown to be negatively correlated with the size of the workforce consequently short run unemployment can arise with involuntary features the paper also explores the effectiveness of alternative remuneration schemes in mitigating the inefficiency associated with the group work norm setting

the duration of employment opportunities in u s manufacturing long duration employment opportunities are a necessary condition for workers to hold lifetime jobs this paper uses longitudinal data on individual u s manufacturing plants from 1963 1982 to estimate the age and completed spell distributions for employment positions the results indicate that of the employment opportunities in progress in the u s manufacturing sector in 1982 30 0 were at least 19 years old and 59 6 would have a completed length of at least 20 years high rates of turnover in employment positions coexist with a large number of long duration employment opportunities because the turnover tends to be concentrated within a subset of the producers copyright 1991 by mit press

the dynamics of job separation the case of federal employees summary in this paper we develop a model of workers quit decisions using panel data on a sample of us federal government employees we use maximum likelihood techniques to determine how much of the observed decline in quits with job tenure is a result of declining individual quit propensities state dependence rather than dynamic sample self selection heterogeneity the latter is found to be much more important than the former the effects of relative federal government wages and other variables on quits are also estimated the results are useful for analysing federal compensation policies

employment relations in dual labor markets it s nice work if you can get it jobs in big firms command higher wages i examine four theories that could explain this relation first large firms incur higher fixed employment costs including more specific training second monitoring costs are greater in big firms and can be spread by hiring more productive workers third large firms may choose to pay efficiency wages to deter shirking finally large employers organize production around teams and pay higher wages to get workers who comply with the discipline of team production the dispersion of wages and working conditions in the u s labor market reflect the heterogeneity of jobs employment relations and individuals

efficient labor contracts with employment risk this article analyzes efficient employment agreements where the demand for consumption insurance can be satisfied by noncontractual means we assume that workers can save and that consumption is determined by a strong form of the permanent income hypothesis under conditions of asymmetric information about exogenous shocks to labor demand we derive a unique compensation schedule that efficiently guides decisions by both workers and employers efficient employment outcomes are generated without a need for third party enforcement or monitoring and workers choose a consumption policy that leaves them indifferent among realizations of labor demand within this solution it is both costless and efficient for workers to delegate employment decisions to the firm within the context of the model we analyze implications for the equilibrium distribution of wages and for empirical studies of labor supply

inequality and attainment in a dual labor market models of wage determination and sector attainment are estimated for a cohort of young men in a dual labor market neoclassical economic vs dual labor market views on market equilibrium are contrasted although schooling is rewarded similarly in the primary and secondary sectors other results support the dual labor market view that employment in the primary sector is rationed via a queuing mechanism

unemployment behaviour evidence from the cps work experience survey this chapter is empirical and descriptive rather than theoretical it examines the cps unemployment experience data which gives the number of weeks of unemployment and the number of spells of unemployment experienced by a sample of people in a year this chapter focuses on both the entry rate or frequency probability of entering and the exit rate or duration probability of exiting of unemployment spells for it is on both the entry and exit rates that the level and distribution of unemployment depends the conclusion is that entry rates and differences in entry rates across people are of primary importance in explaining unemployment experience

firm size and job quality a survey of the evidence from germany small firms provide and create a large proportion of jobs in germany are these jobs worse than jobs in larger firms the mosaic picture that emerges from a review of several recent empirical studies using german individual or firm level micro data shows that all in all wages are lower non wage incomes fringes are lower job security is lower work organisation is less rigid institutionalized possibilities for workers participation in decision making are weaker and opportunities for skill enhancement are worse in small firms compared to large firms the weight of evidence therefore indicates that on average small firms offer worse jobs than large firms it is argued that there is no need for policy measures targeted to improve job quality in small firms because higher incomes in large firms can in part be seen as compensating differentials for more rigid work organisation and can follow from wage policies to reduce shirking and turnover that is more costly in large than in small firms furthermore a lower level of remuneration less protection against dismissals a lower level of workers participation and less opportunities for further training all contribute to lower costs in small firms that might be needed to compensate for size related cost disadvantages compared to large firms economic policy should concentrate on keeping barriers to entrepreneurs entry to markets low to foster new firm formation and creative destruction

firm specific human capital as an employer discipline device the inability of employers to monitor perfectly the level of effort of their employees is a potentially serious impediment to labor market efficacy indeed a number of recent studies have concluded that this may lead to involuntary unemployment shapiro and stiglitz 1984 sparks 1986 an inefficient sectoral allocation of workers oi 1990 strand 1986 and discrimination against productively identical workers bulow and summers 1986 this paper shows that the lock in effect of firm specific human capital can help alleviate problems of worker moral hazard and thereby promote labor market performance i introduction as the surveys of akerlof yellen 1986 ch 1 carmichael 1990 lang and kahn 1990 and weiss 1990 amply illustrate the last decade witnessed the emergence of a large body of literature which falls under the general rubric of efficiency wage models of the labor market the hallmark of this approach is that some essential aspect of worker performance depends upon the wage paid by the firm much recent work bulow summers 1986 oi 1990 shapiro and stiglitz 1984 sparks 1986 and strand 1986 has considered the case in which due to monitoring difficulties worker effort depends positively upon the wage the popularity of the approach undoubtedly stems from its ability to apparently explain many stylized features of labor market behavior in an attractively simple and straightforward manner in the papers cited above shapiro and stiglitz 1984 and sparks 1987 show that labor market equilibrium can be characterized by involuntary unemployment bulow and summers 1986 demonstrate that inter alia efficiency wage models are consistent with equilibrium discrimination against productively identical agents and finally oi 1990 and strand 1986 show that efficiency wage payments can generate an inefficient sectoral allocation of workers yet recent research now suggests that the results obtained from this class of model are highly sensitive to the specific assumptions made at the outset about the completeness of contractual arrangements indeed as carmichael 1985 astutely observed if contracts can include bond payments even if financed by borrowing from imperfect capital markets the standard imperfect monitoring variant of the efficiency wage hypothesis fails to predict the emergence of equilibrium involuntary unemployment i e all workers receive their reservation utility however proponents of efficiency wage models have responded to this criticism by arguing that workers would be unwilling to post large bonds with firms due to a problem of employer moral hazard specifically workers recognize that firms may hire them in order to steal their bond payment ex post once this limitation on admissible bond payments is recognized it might then be tempting to conclude that the main results of the efficiency wage literature will re emerge in this paper i consider this issue in an environment which also allows for investment in firm specific human capital the basic structure is similar to hashimoto 1981 following macleod and malcomson 1987 1989 i assume that 1 worker performance measures are sufficiently nebulous to preclude verification by third parties and 2 as in carmichael 1983 the courts are unable to ascertain whether in the event of separation a worker quit or was fired this informational structure generates a potentially serious joint worker employer moral hazard problem workers may shirk and employers may simply hire labor in order to collect any bond payments or exit fees stipulated in the contract as emphasized by both carmichael 1989 1990 and macleod and malcomson 1987 1989 the solution to this contracting problem requires that both parties receive a non negative return from the continuation of the match relative to what can be obtained from its dissolution

hours layoffs and unemployment insurance funding theory and practice in an international perspective the strikingly different behaviour of important economic aggregates in the united states and other industrial countries has received surprisingly little attention from economists among recent exceptions however gordon i 982 has shown that wages and hours of work are much more flexible in the united kingdom and japan than in the united states such relative hours variability is confirmed in a macro analysis by capdevielle and alvarez i98i and at micro level by sengenberger and kohler i982 the latter authors are concerned with labour market adjustment within the u s and west german automobile industries between i 97 i and i 980 estimates of the german workeroutput elasticity are found to be less than half that of the united states while the german hours elasticity is twice the united states figure at the national aggregate level capdevielle and alvarez also reveal much greater employment variability in the united states than in most other oecd countries in the years following the i973 74 opec supply shock much in line with these employment hours observations moy and sorrentino i98i argue that after

are displaced manufacturing workers unemployable an analysis of sectorally based adjustment costs in france despite the richness of the literature on the adjustment costs of displaced workers the impact of the former sector of employment on a displaced worker s jobless durations has received little attention this is curious given the policy responses in several countries although the literature indicates the importance of individual characteristics such as educational attainment and demographic traits a non trivial portion of government assistance is based on a collective attribute of the affected workforces namely the sector in which they formerly worked governments often target assistance to specific sectors in the forms of operating subsidies financial bailout packages and trade protection examples include steelworkers and shipyard workers in france coal miners in the united kingdom and fishery and shipyard workers in canada gray 1995 demonstrates that taxpayer funded early retirement benefits in france are heavily weighted toward workers in manufacturing industries in canada similar benefits are currently being received by the early retirees of algoma steel and the steelworkers union has requested a package for older laid off stelco employees the rationale commonly given by government officials and workers unions is that workers in the affected sectors have virtually no alternative employment opportunities possible reasons for the perception that workers displaced from certain sectors have low re employment probabilities have received little attention in the economics literature the thrust of the conjecture posited by policy makers in france is that there is an ethos described in houseman 1988 according to which workers in sectors such as heavy manufacturing are covered by an implicit contract which has conditioned them to expect guaranteed permanent employment the organizational characteristics of the internal labour market cause them to lack the cognitive skills required to

unemployment and the efficiency wage hypothesis there has been much recent discussion of the reasons why prices in certain markets and in particular in labour markets may not adjust to eliminate excess supply the absence of speedy adjustment of prices is an essential feature of the recent models of disequilibrium macroeconomics but for the most part no explanation for this absence is provided from within those models one explanation that has been around in the literature for some time and has been receiving increasing attention recently is the efficiency wage hypothesis initially applied to developing economies see leibenstein i957 it has more recently been adapted to developed economies by weiss i 980 and used in the context of a keynesian macroeconomic model by hart i 980 similar concepts have been applied to the credit market by stiglitz and weiss i98i the purpose of the present paper is to explore further the conditions under which the notion of an efficiency wage is applicable and can provide an explanation of involuntary unemployment the essential feature of the efficiency wage hypothesis is that the productivity of a firm s employees increases as their wage is increased at least over an economically relevant part of its range if the wage paid by the firm is denoted by w the number of employees by l and the productivity of each employee by p w where p w o then the effective labour force of the firm e can be represented by

canadian jobs and firm size do smaller firms pay less even after controlling for observable workers characteristics and for occupation and industry specific effects a substantial wage differential remains between large and small firms what underlies the remaining wage differential is unclear direct evidence on pension plan coverage and on lay off rates by firm size is inconsistent with the bad working conditions hypothesis the union avoidance hypothesis does not seem to explain an important portion o f the wage differential as suggested by efficiency wage models part of the remaining wage differential may be due to firms heterogeneity similarly perhaps large firms pay higher wages simply partly beca use they employ workers with more unobserved abilities because differen t explanations of the wage differential may lead to different policy implications determining the source of the wage firm size effect is an important question for future research

evidence on adverse selection and establishment size in the labor market a commonly suggested explanation for the finding that laid off workers have greater mean post displacement earnings losses than workers who lose theirjobs through plant closings is that the former are of lower quality than the latter but there is also an alternative explanation for this result laid off workers suffer larger earnings losses because as a group they have more to lose in the first place having been displaced from larger higher wage establishments an analysis of data from the national longitudinal survey of youth confirms this hypothesis accounting for establishment size removes virtually all of the difference in wage losses for the two groups of displaced workers an adverse selection framework has been employed by many authors to explain various phenomena in the labor market spence 1973 harris and holmstrom 1982 greenwald 1986 recently several authors gibbons and katz 1991 doiron 1995 grund 1997 have investigated whether the postjob loss experiences of two different types of displaced workers those who are laid off from their jobs and those who are displaced by a plant closing reflect adverse selection specifically do laid off workers exhibit larger post job loss wage

estimation of unemployment duration from grouped data a comparative study economists have often found it useful to look at the average length of an unemployment spell in evaluating labor market conditions and in considering the labor market experience of the unemployed usually this statistic has to be estimated from grouped observations on interrupted incomplete unemployment spells this paper is a comparative study of some nonparametric and parametric methods of estimating this quantity using australian department of social security data on unemployment benefit recipients

a theory of dual labor markets with application to industrial policy discrimination and keynesian unemployment this paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers need to motivate workers in order to elicit effort from their workers employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage this changes fundamentally the character of labor markets the model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena it provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates it also can provide the basis for a theory of occupational segregation and discrimination that will not be eroded by market forces finally the model provides the basis for a theory of involuntary unemployment

keeping time an analysis of errors in the measurement of unemployment duration this study uses longitudinal microdata from the current population survey to examine the consistency with which unemployment duration is reported an estimate of measurement error is proposed and analyzed a significant negative relationship is found between the initial month s unemployment duration and the reported change between surveys on average persons who begin spells of unemployment in the second month report durations greater than the actual time elapsed overall the average duration of unemployment in this sample may be overstated by at least two weeks a brief discussion of some implications for empirical labor market research concludes the article

unemployment insurance and job duration in canada we use data from the canadian 2 year longitudinal labour market activity survey of 1986 87 to estimate the effect of the unemployment insurance ui system on job duration particular attention is focused on the entrance requirements of the ui system which relate eligibility for ui benefits to an individual s recent employment history the article makes operational the ui entrance requirement provisions which take into account variations in the regional unemployment rate controlling for many personal and job characteristics we find evidence that a significant number of jobs terminate when they have reached the duration that would permit a ui claim

worksharing and factor prices abstract the aspect of worksharing on which this paper concentrates concerns an increase in the firm s workforce offset by a reduction in average working hours emphasis is given to the effect of relative factor prices on worksharing within a model structure which includes the capital stock and worker productivity as endogenous inputs factor prices include all the main categories of wage and non wage labour payments as well as the user cost of capital special attention is given to the role of non wages both quasi fixed and variable an analysis of the effects of marginal employment subsidies on worksharing is also considered with reference to the french solidarity contracts

efficiency wages and equilibrium wages i introduction economists have long sought to explain unemployment in ways consistent with individual agents optimizing behavior a recent although controversial model in this vein is the efficiency wage paradigm which focuses on the difficulty of monitoring worker performance when production is organized in teams to discourage nonperformance by employees firms monitor their workers and dismiss those who are caught shirking a firm may further discourage nonfeasance by paying its workers higher wages than they could earn elsewhere then workers caught shirking not only become unemployed but forfeit the rents associated with their jobs 1 in this scenario in order to maintain the incentives not to shirk firms will not cut wages even though equally qualified unemployed workers are willing to work for less the result is disequilibrium in the labor market and possibly involuntary unemployment 2 a series of theoretical studies have demonstrated the conditions under which efficiency wages may occur standard references include eaton and white 1982 1983 shapiro and stiglitz 1984 foster and wan 1984 bowles 1985 and calvo 1985 yellen 1984 reviews the early literature while katz 1986 stiglitz 1987 and carmichael 1990 discuss more recent work but as carmichael emphasizes in his review few papers have actually attempted to test the predictions of the efficiency wage models most of the existing empirical investigations examine the importance of industrial wage differentials krueger and summers 1987 1988 dickens and katz 1987 and murphy and topel 1987a find that there are substantial unexplained industrial wage differentials which bulow and summers 1986 and krueger and summers 1987 1988 attribute to efficiency wages however the magnitude as well as the interpretation of these industrial wage differentials is disputed see carmichael 1990 leonard 1987 and murphy and topel 1987a 1987b for differing views this paper extends the efficiency wage model in a straightforward way to address two questions will the labor market clear if firms can only imperfectly monitor worker effort and do industrial wage differentials provide a test for the importance of efficiency wages we offer two modifications to traditional efficiency wage models first we recognize that there may be an explicit cost to being fired for instance dismissed workers may find it more difficult to find future employment because of poor references from their previous employer they may incur high psychic costs as a result of being fired or they may have to suffer large search costs in locating another job second we let the firm choose the performance standard 3 it seems only natural that a firm wanting more effort from its employees would hold its workers to a more rigorous performance standard just as a firm seeking a higher quality labor force may require more schooling of its applicants while the firm must compensate the worker for the extra effort necessary to meet the higher performance standard payment of efficiency wages could be avoided following the efficiency wage literature we make the strong assumption that all implicit or explicit bonding mechanisms are prohibitively costly to implement our model of the worker s and firm s behavior is specified in section ii the model includes as special cases a market paying equilibrium wages one paying non market clearing efficiency wages and a dual labor market that is a combination of the two we demonstrate that the firm need not pay efficiency wages even in the presence of the agency problem the use of the performance standard gives the firm another instrument other than the wage to control worker effort and welfare there are limits to how high the performance standard will be adjusted however before the firm will offer an efficiency wage we present the details of these arguments in section iii

welfare costs of sticky wages when effort can respond abstract we examine the impact of wage stickiness when employment has an effort as well as hours dimension despite wages being predetermined the labor market clears through the effort margin consequently welfare costs of wage stickiness are potentially much much smaller

involuntary unemployment and worker self selection abstract consider a firm that lacks information about the reservation wage or ability of any specific worker but is aware that workers with higher reservation wages tend to be more able on average we show that under a simple condition that the efficiency wage exceeds the lowest reservation wage the optimal hiring policy for the firm involves 1 no wage discrimination and 2 rationing of jobs when demand for its product is low the result also extends to the case where hours of work are variable provided each worker is most productive when working a strictly positive number of hours per week

employment tenure and earnings profiles in japan and the united states comments the relationship between job tenure and annual earnings in japan has received considerable attention from social scientists examining employment contracts and the japanese compensation system in their widely cited article masanori hashimoto and john raisian 1985 using data for 1980 showed that japanese men have greater job tenure than comparable workers in the united states and that the earnings of japanese men rise more rapidly with increased tenure they found that an additional year of tenure increases earnings in both small and large firms in japan more than does an additional year of general market experience their results for the united states indicate that general market experience increases earnings more than an additional year of job tenure the 1970 s and 1980 s were a period of substantial change in japanese labor markets due to the rapid aging of the population and the restructuring of the economy following the oil crisis the present analysis extends the work of hashimoto and raisian by estimating earnings equations for japanese men for the years 1971 1976 1981 and 1986 specifically we wish to investigate whether hashimoto and raisian s findings have been stable over time or whether changes in the labor market have altered the importance of tenure relative to total labor market experience in the japanese labor market i changes in the labor market

measuring wellbeing performance of carbon emissions using hybrid measure and meta frontier techniques empirical tests for g20 countries and implications for china abstract a quantitative measure of performance that integrates national level carbon emission profiles with key parameters of social and economic wellbeing can provide an effective management tool for policy interventions this paper constructs non parametric evaluation and decomposition models using hybrid measure and meta frontier techniques the proposed models are employed to estimate the wellbeing performance of carbon emissions wpce and identify the sources of wpce inefficiency empirical analyses based on the group 20 g20 countries for the 2000 2015 period shows the worst performance is in the brics country group i e brazil russia india china and south africa known for rapid growth whereas the developed and the developing economies of the g20 group show positive trajectories of performance as for china its performance measure of wpce was the lowest among the g20 indicating significant potential for further improvement the analysis also highlights the role of managerial failure as the primary driver of inefficiency more important than technological inefficiency in explaining efficiency loss within the g20 countries this critical finding the relevance and importance of managerial capability suggests the need for a high level of attention to governance and managerial capacity to ensure continued improvements in performance on carbon emissions and human wellbeing a lesson to be drawn from this study is that china s policies to promote a low carbon economy can benefit from increased priority given to low carbon technological innovation for the energy system transition and enhancement of environmental governance and managerial capacity to achieve a long term sustainability

business cycles and compositional variation in u s unemployment in this article we study u s unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the current population survey over the period 1968 1992 we estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data both over time and between demographic groups back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow in turn we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calendar time duration and demographic group we use the estimation results to provide a decomposition of aggregate u s unemployment dynamics in various incidence and duration components

the importance of lifetime jobs in the u s economy though the u s labor market is justly notorious for high turnover and consequent high unemployment it also provides stable near lifetime employment to an important fraction of the labor force this paper investigates patterns of job duration by age race and sex with the following major conclusions 1 the typical worker today is holding a job which has lasted or will last about eight years over a quarter of all workers are holding jobs which will last twenty years or more sixty percent hold jobs which will last five years or more 2 the jobs held by middle aged workers with more than ten years of tenure are extremely stable over the span of a decade only twenty to thirty percent come to an end 3 among workers aged thirty and above about forty percent are currently working in jobs which eventually will last twenty years or more three quarters are in jobs which will last five years or more 4 the duration of employment among blacks is just as long as among whites even though the jobs held by blacks are worse in almost every other dimension they are no more unstable than those held by whites 5 women s jobs are substantially shorter than men s on the average only about a quarter of all women over the age of thirty are employed in jobs which will last over twenty years whereas over half of men over thirty are holding these near lifetime jobs this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

employer size and labor turnover the role of pensions the well documented lower labor turnover in large firms than in smaller firms has been cited as evidence that large firms pay workers above their opportunity wage this study investigates whether t

the economy of high wages an agency problem latitude with respect to the effort they supply and monitoring of effort and output is costly in this paper we examine the agency problem that arises in these circumstances the agent employee is assumed to maximize expected utility which depends on wages and effort a bad we assume that output is a deterministic function of effort that either effort or output can be accurately monitored and that monitoring is costly the firm s problem is to select a level of monitoring and a compensation package that will minimize the cost of obtaining a desired level of effort given the cost of monitoring the agent s preferences and the agent s opportunity cost of accepting employment with the firm his labour supply constraint the firm chooses a compensation scheme from the set in which compensation is contingent on effort if the agent is monitored and is equal to a standard

the tail risk premia of the carry trades abstract we study the relationship between the excess returns of portfolios invested in carry trade positions and an innovative global tail risk factor we find that high interest rate currencies are related to innovations in global currency tail risk they deliver low returns in times of unexpected high tail risk and high returns in times of unexpected low tail risk suggesting a standard asset pricing theory approach to explain the returns to the carry trade our tail risk factor can be understood as the interaction of moment based factors such as volatility skewness and kurtosis our results tend to indicate that the interaction of moments i e tail risk rather than the moments alone drives investor behavior this makes sense since the ultimate risk for carry traders is to reach their funding limits which are set because of the regulations on the back of tail risk statistics value at risk and not simply on the back of the volatility the skewness or the kurtosis alone the result holds in other cross sections of currencies and whether the global tail risk indicators are estimated in the currency the equity or the bond market

efficiency wage models of unemployment keynesian economists hold it to be self evident that business cycles are characterized by involuntary unemployment but construction of a model of the cycle with involuntary unemployment faces the obvious difficulty of explaining why the labor market does not clear involuntarily unemployed people by definition want to work at less than the going wage rate why don t firms cut wages thereby increasing profits

the trade off between supervision and wages evidence of efficiency wages from the nlsy standard efficiency wage models suggest that workers employed in places with lower probabilities of identifying shirking will earn more as will workers who have better alternative opportunities this paper provides new empirical evidence in support of efficiency wage theory using the national longitudinal surveys of youth data the empirical results support the prediction of the model that workers employed in larger work groups are paid more a finding consistent with a supervision wage trade off additional evidence supports the prediction that workers with better alternative opportunities earn more the classical competitive theories of wage determination predict that workers will be paid the value of their marginal product these theories suggest that after accounting for differences in working conditions there should be no variation in wages among homogeneous workers recent findings that industry affiliation and firm size affect wages suggest that part of the explanation of wage structure is missing these results call into question the view that industry wage differentials can plausibly be rationalized with textbook competitive models krueger and summers 1988 p 280 this paper follows the efficiency wage literature by assuming that one important determinant of wage differences is variation in employers ability to monitor workers efforts 2 this paper provides new empirical evidence in support of efficiency wage theory using data from the national longitudinal surveys of youth nlsy a data set that is noticeably absent from the efficiency wage literature efficiency wage models attempt to complete the explanation of wage structure by focusing

a model of the natural rate of unemployment since the publication of edmund phelps volume the new macroeconomics has treated the labor market as a dynamic process of rational search by unemployed workers for available vacancies wages are viewed as at least potentially flexible though free contracting between workers and firms may lead to fixed wages in the short run imperfect information is a crucial element of the theory for it implies both a need for contracting and a need for rational search rather than simple market clearing in each period a positive rate of frictional unemployment may exist in equilibrium denoted as the natural rate this unemployment is due to the frictions in the search process and imperfections in information rather than to any deficiency in aggregate demand milton friedman defined the natural rate as the level that would be ground out by the walrasian system of general equilibrium equations provided there is embedded in them the actual structural characteristics of the labor and commodity markets including market imperfections stochastic variability in demands and supplies the cost of gathering information about job vacancies and labor availabilities the costs of mobility and so on p 8 this paper reexamines the micro foundations of the natural rate in a model of labor market equilibrium in which turnover flows and imperfect information are explicitly considered workers may quit their current jobs to enter the unemployment pool in order to search among available vacancies for a more preferred position firms economize on turnover by an appropriate wage policy

internal labour markets causes and consequences the paper analyzes the causes and consequences of internal labor market rules that yield long tenure promotion from within seniority pensions and due process in dismissals about half the workforce are estimated to be in such markets competitive reasons for internal labor markets as a response to specific training and arms length relationships between workers and firms are surveyed these reasons are found to be consistent with the pattern of internal labor markets among non union firms however some internal labor markets e g among small unionized firms are probably a response to union pressure and government regulations in these circumstances low labor mobility could pose problems for policy copyright 1991 by oxford university press

an illfare approach to the measurement of unemployment based on an illfare approach a new index of unemployment is proposed which unlike the traditional measures takes into account the incidence of unemployment mean duration of unemployment and the disparity in the distribution of the burden of unemployment the proposed measure is most relevant for comparing levels of unemployment across regions or over a period of time an illustation with us data is presented

a review of the stern review on the economics of climate change how much and how fast should we react to the threat of global warming the stern review argues that the damages from climate change are large and that nations should undertake sharp and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions an examination of the review s radical revision of the economics of climate change finds however that it depends decisively on the assumption of a near zero time discount rate combined with a specific utility function the review s unambiguous conclusions about the need for extreme immediate action will not survive the substitution of assumptions that are consistent with today s marketplace real interest rates and savings rates

the returns to currency speculation in emerging markets the carry trade strategy involves selling forward currencies that are at a forward premium and buying forward currencies that are at a forward discount we compare the payoffs to the carry trade applied to two different portfolios the first portfolio consists exclusively of developed country currencies the second portfolio includes the currencies of both developed countries and emerging markets our main empirical findings are as follows first including emerging market currencies in our portfolio substantially increases the sharpe ratio associated with the carry trade second bid ask spreads are two to four times larger in emerging markets than in developed countries third and most dramatically the payoffs to the carry trade for both portfolios are uncorrelated with returns to the u s stock market this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

reconstructing the pattern of american unemployment before the first world war this paper calculates the distribution of unemployment duration lengths and transition rates for massachusetts workers in the late nineteenth century using data on time spent out of work and assuming that the spell durations followed a weibull distribution i parameterize a model of the timing of transitions from unemployment to employment and vice versa i then simulate the employment experience of representative workers and construct distributionis of completed spell lengths the experience of most out of work workers in a year seems to have been in one rather long spell rather than in shorter multiple ones

a comparative analysis of electricity generation costs from renewable fossil fuel and nuclear sources in g20 countries for the period 2015 2030 abstract despite the positive momentum achieved by the renewable energy sector in recent years there are substantial challenges that need the attention of the global community and one of the more pressing issues is dealing with the deleterious external costs of power generation one of the parameters to compare costs of energy across various technologies is levelised cost of energy lcoe but it has been conventional practice to neglect the external costs in estimating the lcoe of power generation technologies furthermore as lcoe is a critical indicator for policy and decision makers there is a need to juxtapose actual costs of renewable and conventional power generation technologies this research paper attempts to internalise some of these external and ghg emission costs across various power generation and storage technologies in all the g20 countries as they account for 85 of global power consumption as future investment decisions are largely influenced by costs estimates in this research prove renewables and storage to be far cheaper than fossil and nuclear sources by 2030 even without considering external costs the myth that renewables are way too expensive has been debunked repeatedly and the cost decline of wind and solar photovoltaic pv technologies have outpaced most industry expectations the results of this research not only substantiate this trend but also statistically display that all the g20 countries have the opportunity to decrease their energy costs significantly between now and 2030 renewable energy technologies offer the lowest lcoe ranges across g20 countries in 2030 utility scale solar pv generally shows the lowest values ranging from 16 to 117 mwhel and onshore wind lcoe range is from 16 to 90 mwhel rooftop solar pv generally offers the next lowest lcoe ranging from 31 to 126 mwhel followed by lcoe of offshore wind power ranging from 64 to 135 mwhel solar pv and battery systems are highly competitive on an lcoe basis at utility scale ranging from 21 to 165 mwhel and at residential scale from 40 to 204 mwhel the g20 as well as other countries can continue to develop their economies in a sustainable manner along with substantial co benefits in adjacent policy fields such as higher national welfare better health of citizens lower respective health costs and improved energy security