the demand for energy cross country evidence using the florida model abstract income and own price elasticities of demand for energy for 51 countries in 1980 are presented based on pooled estimates from an 11 good demand system estimated with the florida model results indicate income elasticities of demand for energy are significantly larger than unitary for all countries and own price elasticities of demand for energy range between 0 8 and 1 0

energy consumption economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in china this paper applies the panel unit root heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel based dynamic ols to re investigate the co movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland china from 1985 to 2007 the empirical results show that there is a positive long run cointegrated relationship between real gdp per capita and energy consumption variables furthermore we investigate two cross regional groups namely the east china and west china groups and get more important results and implications in the long term a 1 increase in real gdp per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0 48 0 50 and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0 41 0 43 in china the economic growth in east china is energy dependent to a great extent and the income elasticity of energy consumption in east china is over 2 times that of the west china at present china is subject to tremendous pressures for mitigating climate change issues it is possible that the gdp per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions would be controlled in a range from 0 2 to 0 3 by the great effort

indirect effects of an aid program how do cash transfers affect ineligibles consumption cash transfers to eligible households indirectly increase the consumption of ineligible households living in the same villages this effect operates through insurance and credit markets ineligible households benefit from the transfers by receiving more gifts and loans and by reducing their savings thus the transfers benefit the local economy at large looking only at the effect on the treated underestimates the impact one should analyze the effects of this class of programs on the entire local economy rather than on the treated only and use a village level randomization rather than selecting treatment and control subjects from the same community

a panel cointegration analysis of the demand for oil in the middle east this article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long run income and price elasticities for oil in the middle east the results for the panel indicate that demand for oil is highly price inelastic and slightly income elastic in the middle east there is considerable variation in the results for the income variable across countries with the coefficient on the income variable statistically insignificant for several countries the coefficient on the price variable is statistically significant in all cases with the expected sign and the price elasticity is uniformly low while the results for the income variable differ across countries the results for the panel as a whole suggest that the demand for oil in the middle east is being driven largely by strong economic growth while consumers are largely insensitive to price changes

the demand for energy evidence from a cross country demand system abstract some new evidence on the income own price elasticities of demand for energy consumption by consumers is presented estimates are derived from a complete system of cross country demand equations with energy being one of the commodities considered

short run energy economy interactions in egypt abstract this paper discusses the short run adjustment mechanism of the egyptian economy to changes in the domestic price of oil the effects of oil price increases have been analysed in the framework of a short run macroeconomic model with an explicit treatment of energy the results suggest that a reduction in petroleum use induced by a rise in the price of oil will impose difficult adjustment problems for the economy in the short run in terms of increase in inflation fall in the share of wage income and sharp output losses the analysis also indicates that energy demand management through appropriate petroleum pricing strategy cannot bring about desirable impacts on the economy unless efforts are made to reduce cost pressures originating from other energy sectors

opec market failure or power failure abstract the actions of opec and saudi arabia are discussed in terms of their objectives and their technical and social constraints it is concluded 1 that opec does not act as a cartel and 2 that hotelling s rule is not an important feature of pricing or production opec s more specifically saudi arabia s ideal policy is to keep price moderate to try to assure a market for their high reserves over the long run such an action would require heavy investments in capacity including in excess capacity for times of interruption of supply from other countries as in the 1990s and for times of high demand as in the 2000s the action may be inconsistent with other objectives and in any case may be too difficult to achieve

small transaction cost asymptotics and dynamic hedging abstract transaction costs are one of the major impediments to the implementation of dynamic hedging strategies we consider an alternative to utility maximization similar to the good deal pricing framework in incomplete markets we perform a dynamic risk reward analysis for a family of non self financing strategies of practical importance deterministic time hedging i e hedging at predetermined fixed times in the limit of small relative transaction costs we carry out the asymptotic analysis and find that transaction costs affect the hedge ratios and that the time between trades is related in a simple way to the local sensitivities of the replication target

the contribution of energy use and financial development by source in climate change mitigation process a global empirical perspective abstract the danger of climate change has over the years become a reality in the public domain while efforts to mitigate climate change involve energy mix energy efficiency and cleaner technology financial development has also been considered as an important factor indicator of financial development may draw fdi and advanced degree of research and development which can accelerate economic growth and hence affect dynamism of environmental performance this study examines the impacts of energy use and financial development indicators by source in the environment growth energy model for 90 countries categorized on the basis of income possession over the period 1980 2014 the study applies the panel analysis that accounts for cross sectional dependence and heterogeneity of series used in the estimation results from panel dynamic ordinary least squares dols show that in all the categories of countries fossil fuel energy use and gdp per capita are found to be the major drivers of co2 emissions though fossil fuel energy use possesses the bigger elasticities population however displays a sign contrary to expectation regarding economic theory in high income countries renewable energy and financial development on the other hand are capable of reducing co2 emissions however the magnitude of the long run elasticity of co2 emissions with respect to renewable energy use and financial development are much greater in the models with m2 gdp than the model with m2 reserve especially in the high income countries policies should be geared towards stimulating investments in renewable energy technology there is need to develop robust financial systems to lend financial credence to research institutes to work towards producing energy that have less carbon or are carbon free

child labor and agricultural shocks this paper examines the relationship between household income shocks and child labor in particular we investigate the extent to which transitory income shocks lead to increases in child labor and whether household asset holdings mitigate the effects of these shocks using data from a household panel survey in tanzania we find that both relationships are significant we investigate mechanisms that could account for these results including buffer stocks and borrowing

tests for parameter instability in regressions with i 1 processes this article derives the large sample distributions of lagrange multiplier lm tests for parameter instability against several alternatives of interest in the context of cointegrated regression models the fully modified estimator of phillips and hansen is extended to cover general models with stochastic and deterministic trends the test statistics considered include the supf test of quandt as well as the lm tests of nyblom and of nabeya and tanaka it is found that the asymptotic distributions depend on the nature of the regressor processes that is if the regressors are stochastic or deterministic trends the distributions are noticeably different from the distributions when the data are weakly dependent it is also found that the lack of cointegration is a special case of the alternative hypothesis considered an unstable intercept so the tests proposed here may also be viewed as a test of the null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration the tests are applied to three data se

child labor and the labor supply of other household members evidence from 1920 america this paper analyses the effect of child labor on household labor supply using 1920 us census micro data the aim of the analysis is to understand who in the household benefits from child labor in order to identify a source of exogenous variation in child labor i use state specific child labor laws i find that a rise in the proportion of working children by household is associated with no variation in parents labor supply i also find a strong negative externality among children as the proportion of working children by household rises everything else equal the probability that each child works falls while the probability that he attends school rises this suggests that parents redistribute entirely the returns from child labor to the children in the household consistent with a model of household labor supply with fully altruistic parents

income and price elasticities of energy consumption in egypt a time series analysis abstract the purpose of this paper is to provide empirical estimates of the price and income elasticities of energy consumption in egypt it fills an important gap since policy discussion of energy pricing issues has so far been based more on assumptions than on hard evidence the paper shows that the real relative price of energy has been falling steadily since 1972 while per capita energy consumption rose some 50 over the decade 1972 81 evidence produced in this exercise indicates quite clearly that price and income elasticities of energy consumption are significantly much lower than was generally believed

energy consumption and energy r d in oecd perspectives from oil prices and economic growth abstract we estimate the short run and long run elasticities of various types of energy consumption and energy r d to changes in oil prices and income of the 20 oecd countries over the period of 1980 2010 using the nerlove partial adjustment model npam we find negative income elasticity for coal consumption but positive income elasticity for oil and gas consumption suggesting the importance of economic growth in encouraging the usage of cleaner energy from coal to oil and gas by introducing time dummies into the regressions we show that climatic mitigation policies are able to promote the usage of cleaner energies through the dynamic linkages between energy consumption and energy r d we find that fossil fuel consumption promotes fossil fuel r d and fossil fuel r d in turn drives its own consumption renewable energy r d which is more responsive to economic growth reduces fossil fuel consumption and hence fossil fuel r d

the changing demand for energy in rich and poor countries over 25 years abstract country specific income and own price elasticities of demand for private consumption of energy are compared across time and affluence for 43 countries that participated in the 1980 1996 and 2005 international comparison program based on estimates from a ten good demand system results indicate that income elasticities of demand for energy are significantly larger than unitary in 1980 are approximately unitary in 1996 but become inelastic for all 43 countries in 2005 own price elasticities decrease absolutely going from 1980 to 1996 to 2005 ranging from 0 8 to 1 0 in 1980 0 7 to 0 8 in 1996 and 0 6 to 0 7 in 2005 elasticity estimates are also calculated for the set of countries in 1996 and 2005 that do not participate in the icp in 1980

conditional cash transfers schooling and child labor micro simulating brazil s bolsa escola program a growing number of developing economies are providing cash transfers to poor people that require certain behaviors on their part such as attending school or regularly visiting health care facilities a simple ex ante methodology is proposed for evaluating such programs and used to assess the bolsa escola program in brazil the results suggest that about 60 percent of poor 10 to 15 year olds not in school enroll in response to the program the program reduces the incidence of poverty by only a little more than one percentage point however and the gini coefficient falls just half a point results are better for measures more sensitive to the bottom of the distribution but the effect is never large

the economics of child labor if child labor as a mass phenomenon occurs not because of parental selfishness but because of the parents concern for the household s survival the popular argument for banning child labor loses much of its force however this assumption about parental decision making coupled with the assumption of substitutability in production between child and adult labor could result in multiple equilibria in the labor market with one equilibrium where children work and another where adult wage is high and children do not work the paper establishes this result and discusses its policy implications copyright 1998 by american economic association

examining the reliability of self reported data on school participation abstract many studies evaluate the impacts of conditional cash transfer cct programs on schooling using self reports on enrollment and attendance even though there are reasons to doubt the reliability of these data in this paper we examine the extent to which school age girls overstate their school participation using administrative data from a cash transfer experiment in malawi and school attendance ledgers collected as part of the impact evaluation we find that while all study participants overstate their enrollment and attendance rates the extent to which this happens is significantly higher in the control group than the cct arm this finding implies that exclusive reliance on self reported school participation data can lead to a serious underestimation of actual program impacts we recommend that self reports be supplemented using alternative sources of data on school participation that are appropriate to the experiment at hand even if such efforts are likely to increase evaluation costs

the effects of transaction costs and different borrowing and lending rates on the option pricing model a note this paper modifies the black scholes option pricing model to include the effects of transaction costs and different borrowing and lending rates the paper demonstrates that these market imperfections tend to offset each other yielding a bounded range of prices for each option the paper also shows that under some conditions the option pricing hedge may be society s lowest cost financial intermediary

testing the moderating role of financial development in an environmental kuznets curve empirical evidence from turkey abstract employing second generation econometric procedures that consider multiple structural breaks in the series this article examines turkey as a case study in the investigation of the moderating role of financial development in a conventional environmental kuznets curve ekc the study uses two separate models for this purpose 1 the main effects model and 2 the interaction effects model the results of this investigation suggest a long term equilibrium relationship between financial development and the ekc in turkey using both model options financial development has been found to moderate the effect of real output on carbon dioxide emissions in the shorter periods negatively which signifies successful environmental performance and energy management in comparison financial development moderates the effect of real output on carbon dioxide emissions in the longer periods positively and in which this finding again signifies that policies for energy savings and green house targets need to be established to target longer periods and energy management policies at higher levels of economic activity the present study did not confirm a significant moderating effect of financial development on the impact of energy consumption on carbon dioxide emissions in the case of turkey

the sensitivity of consumption of oil products to price changes an econometric investigation abstract this paper presents a small econometric model of the supply and demand of motor spirit diesel fuel oil and other gas diesel oil by modelling at this level of disaggregation it is possible to identify the dynamic structure of each market and estimate own price and cross price elasticities

energy gdp relationship revisited an example from gcc countries using panel causality abstract this work investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product gdp and energy consumption in the six countries of the gulf cooperation council gcc recently developed panel cointegration and causality techniques are used to uncover the direction of energy gdp causality in the gcc empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality running from gdp to energy consumption evidence shows no support for the hypothesis that energy consumption is the source of gdp growth in the gcc countries such results suggest that energy conservation policies may be adopted without much concern about their adverse effects on the growth of gcc economies

world product and income a review article kravis heston and summers provided comparable price and volume data for gross domestic product and its components for each of 34 countries varying in affluence from india and malawi to the united states the article discusses the data and the way in which they are generated and considers the use of these data for applied demand analysis

disease and development evidence from hookworm eradication in the american south this study evaluates the economic consequences of the successful eradication of hookworm disease from the american south the hookworm eradication campaign c 1910 began soon after i the discovery that a variety of health problems among southerners could be attributed to the disease and ii the donation by john d rockefeller of a substantial sum to the effort the rockefeller sanitary commission rsc surveyed infection rates in the affected areas eleven southern states and found that an average of forty percent of school aged children were infected with hookworm the rsc then sponsored treatment and education campaigns across the region follow up studies indicate that this campaign substantially reduced hookworm disease almost immediately the sudden introduction of this treatment combines with the cross area differences in pre treatment infection rates to form the basis of the identification strategy areas with higher levels of hookworm infection prior to the rsc experienced greater increases in school enrollment attendance and literacy after the intervention this result is robust to controlling for a variety of alternative factors including differential trends across areas changing crop prices shifts in certain educational and health policies and the effect of malaria eradication no significant contemporaneous results are found for adults who should have benefited less from the intervention owing to their substantially lower prior infection rates a long term follow up of affected cohorts indicates a substantial gain in income that coincided with exposure to hookworm eradication i also find evidence that eradication increased the return to schooling

renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies abstract increased economic growth and demand for energy in emerging economies is creating an opportunity for these countries to increase their usage of renewable energy this paper presents and estimates two empirical models of renewable energy consumption and income for a panel of emerging economies panel cointegration estimates show that increases in real per capita income have a positive and statistically significant impact on per capita renewable energy consumption in the long term a 1 increase in real income per capita increases the consumption of renewable energy per capita in emerging economies by approximately 3 5 long term renewable energy per capita consumption price elasticity estimates are approximately equal to 0 70

a dynamic putty semi putty model of aggregate energy demand energy conservation dominated the adjustments of the energy decade the present study develops further the aggregate analysis to revisit the question of energy flexibility within the context of a multi factor dynamic model the resulting model preserves various adding up constraints cross equation parameter restrictions and consistent indexes within an ad hoc stock adjustment dynamic process applications to data for the usa and japan confirm the estimates of large long run elasticities under the assumption of a slow adjustment process

is child labor inefficient we build a model of child labor and study its implications for welfare we assume that there is a trade off between child labor and the accumulation of human capital even if parents are altruistic and child labor is socially inefficient it may arise in equilibrium because parents fail to fully internalize its negative effects this occurs when bequests are zero or when capital markets are imperfect we also study the effects of a simple ban on child labor and derive conditions under which it may be pareto improving in general equilibrium we show that the implications of child labor for fertility are ambiguous

a cross country tabulation of own price elasticities of demand abstract this paper tabulates frisch slutsky and cournot own price elasticities for each of 10 goods at the per capita real income levels of 30 countries ranging from india to the united states

temporal aggregation and the continuous time capital asset pricing model we examine how the empirical implications of the capital asset pricing model capm are affected by the length of the period over which returns are measured we show that the continuous time capm becomes a multifactor model when the asset pricing relation is aggregated temporally we use hansen s generalized method of moments gmm approach to test the continuous time capm at an unconditional level using size portfolio returns the results indicate that the continuous time capm cannot be rejected in contrast the discrete time capm is easily rejected by the tests these results have a number of important implications for the interpretation of tests of the capm which have appeared in the literature few results in finance are as familiar or as widely used as the linear relation between expected returns and market betas implied by the capital asset pricing model capm however because both the discrete and continuous time versions of the capm lead to this linear relation 1 the literature often fails to distinguish between their respective empirical implications for example discrete and continuous time models are frequently used interchangeably to motivate empirical tests that use discretely observed return data 2 this paper examines how the empirical implications of the capm are affected by the length of the period over which returns are measured 3 we show that if this period differs from the implicit time frame of the model then the familiar linear capm relation need not hold for the observed returns for example the capm can imply a multifactor expression for expected returns when the asset pricing relation is properly aggregated this aspect has many important implications for applied work as well as the interpretation of empirical tests of the capm that have appeared in the literature we illustrate the importance of the temporal aggregation issue by deriving the

estimation of elasticities for domestic energy demand in mozambique abstract in mozambique households consume a mix of energy sources to satisfy their needs for lighting and cooking and for wealthier households other domestic necessities such as refrigeration the domestic energy mix depends on the prices of the sources and on the capability of the household to invest in the energy consuming appliances required to satisfy those needs based on data from a household survey carried out in mozambique during 2002 3 iaf this paper calculates the price and the income elasticities of demand for domestic energy using an econometric method developed by deaton the calculations are made for all households at the national level differentiating for urban and rural households and for the northern households of mozambique in the econometric formulation proxies for the ownership of energy appliances per household are used allowing a simple evaluation of the effects of asset ownership on the demand for energy own and cross price elasticities for five individual domestic sources are obtained low grade sources such as firewood and charcoal are less elastic elasticities of 0 41 and 0 28 respectively than candles kerosene and electricity respectively 0 88 0 79 and 0 60 income elasticities are respectively 0 45 0 32 0 93 0 84 and 0 69 placing firewood and charcoal as the less responsive to income variations and candles and kerosene as the most responsive we also comment on the factors influencing domestic energy transition

household demand for energy in the uk abstract many demand systems have recently been estimated which treat consumer expenditure on energy as one of a small number of similar expenditure groups this study formulates a simple demand system in which expenditures on individual fuels are also examined and into which the role of the stock of energy using appliances is integrated it goes on to adopt a particular functional form for consumer preferences and then fits the resultant econometric system to quarterly british data

the energy gdp relationship in developing countries empirical evidence and stability tests abstract the elasticity of energy consumption with respect to gdp is an important element in projecting energy needs in economic development this study uses cross section and pooled cross section time series data to find that the elasticity of energy consumption with respect to gdp in developing countries is in the neighbourhood of 1 35 and significantly above one over the period covered 1970 to 1976 the relationships appear to have remained stable there are significant differences between areas of the world but the differences in the elasticities between different continents are not large

import demand of crude oil and economic growth evidence from india abstract this study establishes a long run equilibrium relationship among quantity of crude oil import income and price of the imported crude in india for the time span 1970 1971 to 2005 2006 using autoregressive distributed lag ardl bounds testing approach of cointegration empirical results show that the long term income elasticity of imported crude in india is 1 97 and there exists a unidirectional long run causality running from economic growth to crude oil import so reduction of crude oil import will not affect the future economic growth in india in the long run india should take various energy efficiency and demand side management measures in transport sector along with other measures like expanding and strengthening indigenous resource base substituting imported fuels by domestic fuels and de controlling the price of petroleum products to reduce its import dependence

energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized economies a note abstract in industrialized countries the income elasticity of primary energy demand is not far off unity furthermore it can be argued that there is little use in distinguishing between short and long term income elasticities a long term income elasticity does not have a direct impact on energy demand and hence it is of doubtful use in energy demand projections via an aggregate oecd model it was estimated that the short term impact of prices on primary energy demand is about 0 15 while the long term impact is 0 43 but increasing over time

modeling and forecasting crude oil markets using arch type models this study investigates the time varying volatility of two major crude oil markets the west texas intermediate wti and europe brent a flexible autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity arch model is used to take into account the stylized volatility facts such as clustering volatility asymmetric news impact and long memory volatility among others the empirical results indicate that the intensity of long persistence volatility in the wti is greater than in the brent it is also found that for the wti the appreciation and depreciation shocks of the wti have similar impact on the resulting volatility however a leverage effect is found in brent although both the estimation and diagnostic evaluations are in favor of an asymmetric long memory arch model only the wti models provide superior in the out of sample forecasts on the other hand from the empirical out of sample forecasts it appears that the simplest parsimonious generalized arch provides the best forecasted evaluations for the brent crude oil data

gradual reforms and the emergence of energy market in china evidence from tests for convergence of energy prices this study investigates the emergence of energy markets by testing for convergence of energy prices with a new dataset on energy spot prices in 35 major cities in china both descriptive statistics and unit root are employed to test the convergence of energy prices for each of four fuel price series the whole study period is divided into two sub periods in order to reconcile the gradual energy reforms the results show the steady improvement in energy market performance in china especially during the second sub period which suggests that the market appears to be playing an increasing role in determining energy prices while panel unit root tests show energy markets are integrated in china as a whole city by city univariate unit root tests suggest that there are still many regional energy markets probably because energy reserves especially coal vary widely across regions since china s energy economy is gradually moving towards market oriented mechanisms the existing literature may become obsolete soon

extending the sample size in cross country demand analysis abstract results from different phases of the international comparison project and from different sets of countries are compared and combined

school subsidies for the poor evaluating the mexican progresa poverty program abstract this paper evaluates how the progresa program which provides poor mothers in rural mexico with education grants has affected enrollment poor children who reside in communities randomly selected to participate in the initial phase of the progresa are compared to those who reside in other control communities pre program comparisons check the randomized design and double difference estimators of the program s effect on the treated are calculated by grade and sex probit models are also estimated for the probability that a child is enrolled controlling for additional characteristics of the child their parents local schools and community and for sample attrition to evaluate the sensitivity of the program estimates these estimates of program short run effects on enrollment are extrapolated to the lifetime schooling and the earnings of adults to approximate the internal rate of return on the public schooling subsidies as they increase expected private wages

the relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in china the pricing mechanism for energy is not in line with the international standards because the energy prices are controlled by the government partly or completely in china chinese government made a lot of efforts to improve the pricing mechanism for energy the relations between chinese energy prices and energy consumption are the foundations to reform the mechanism in this paper the relations between chinese energy consumption and energy prices are researched by cointegration equations impulse response functions granger causality and variance decomposition the cointegration relations among energy prices energy consumption and economic outputs show that higher energy price will decrease energy consumption in chinese industrial sectors but will not reduce the economic output in the long run the cointegration relation between energy price and household energy consumption shows that higher energy price will decrease household energy consumption in the long run and increase it in the short run so chinese government should deepen the reform of pricing mechanism for energy and increase the energy prices reasonably to save energy

international tourism energy consumption and environmental pollution the case of turkey abstract this study investigates the long run equilibrium relationship between tourism energy consumption and environmental degradation as proxied by carbon dioxide co 2 emissions in turkey which attracts more than 30 million tourists per year making it the sixth most visited country in the world the study results reveal that tourism and energy consumption are in a long term equilibrium relationship with co 2 emissions in the tourism induced model co 2 emissions converge to the long term equilibrium path by a 91 01 percent speed of adjustment every year through the channels of tourism energy consumption and aggregate income further the results of the impulse response and variance decompositions reveal that the reaction of energy consumption and therefore co 2 emissions to changes in tourism development is positive and gains strength in the longer periods this implies that tourism development in turkey has resulted not only in considerable increases in energy use but also considerable increases in climate change as demonstrated by the econometric analysis of this study

the rapid growth of opec s domestic oil consumption abstract opec s domestic oil consumption has increased seven fold in 40 years to 8 5 million barrels per day mbd they consume almost as much oil as china this constitutes one fourth of their production such rapid growth in consumption 5 1 annually faster than their income growth of 3 1 will challenge opec s ability to increase their oil exports which are relied upon in long term world oil projections by the international energy agency iea us department of energy doe eia and british petroleum bp however these institutions assume unprecedented slowdowns in opec oil consumption to less than 2 in the future allowing them to project increases in opec oil exports with only modest increases in production we analyze 1971 2010 data econometrically with panel co integration methods we estimate that the income elasticity of consumption is about 1 for energy and oil this means that opec s energy and oil consumption will grow as rapidly as their income hence continued high growth rates for domestic oil consumption are more likely than the unprecedented slowdowns projected by iea doe eia and bp adding an extra 6 mbd of opec consumption in 2030 this will have major implications for opec production and export levels and for world oil prices

cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and gdp empirical evidence from malawi abstract the granger causality gc and error correction ecm techniques were applied on 1970 1999 data for malawi to examine cointegration and causality between electricity consumption kwh and respectively overall gdp agricultural gdp agdp and non agricultural gdp ngdp cointegration was established between kwh and respectively gdp and ngdp but not with agdp the gc results detect bi directional causality between kwh and gdp suggesting that kwh and gdp are jointly determined but one way causality running from ngdp to kwh the ecm results detect causality running one way from gdp also from ngdp to kwh suggesting that a permanent rise in gdp may cause a permanent growth in electricity consumption

child schooling and child work in the presence of a partial education subsidy could a partial subsidy for child education increase children s participation in paid work in contrast to much of the theoretical and empirical child labor literature this paper shows that child work and school participation can be complements under certain conditions using data from the randomized evaluation of a conditional cash transfer program in the philippines the analysis finds that some children who were in neither school nor work before the program increased participation in school and work for pay after the program earlier cash transfer programs notably those in mexico brazil and ecuador increased school attendance while reducing child labor those programs fully offset schooling costs while the transfers under the philippine transfers fall short of the full costs of schooling for a typical child as a result some beneficiary children from poor philippine households increased work to support their schooling the additional earnings from this work represent a substantive share of the shortfall in the schooling costs net of transfer the paper rules out several potential alternative explanations for the increase in child labor including changes in household productive activities adult labor supply and household expenditure patterns that in principle can arise after a cash transfer and may also affect the supply of or demand for child labor

electricity demand and conservation potential in the chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry newhuadu business school research fund ministry of education foundation 10jzd0018 10jbg013 china sustainable energy program g 1103 13921 national social science foundation 09zd050

an aggregate petroleum consumption model abstract this paper presents an aggregative model of us consumption of petroleum and products of a type which might potentially be used to derive short term forecasts of us petroleum consumption and imports the model attempts to separate income and weather related changes from those induced by changes in relative prices with emphasis on the dynamic path of consumption responses to price changes estimation results suggest that there are still significant price effects six years after a change in the relative price of petroleum

worms at work long run impacts of a child health investment this study estimates long run impacts of a child health investment exploiting community wide experimental variation in school based deworming the program increased labor supply among men and education among women with accompanying shifts in labor market specialization ten years after deworming treatment men who were eligible as boys stay enrolled for more years of primary school work 17 more hours each week spend more time in nonagricultural self employment are more likely to hold manufacturing jobs and miss one fewer meal per week women who were in treatment schools as girls are approximately one quarter more likely to have attended secondary school halving the gender gap they reallocate time from traditional agriculture into cash crops and nonagricultural self employment we estimate a conservative annualized financial internal rate of return to deworming of 32 and show that mass deworming may generate more in future government revenue than it costs in subsidies

transactions data tests of efficiency of the chicago board options exchange abstract this paper performs lower boundary condition tests based on rational pricing of call options and an implied standard deviation test based on the bid ask prices of options these efficiency tests attempt to closely approximate conditions in the option markets to avoid the pitfalls indicated by phillips and smith 1980 the tests use transactions data and account for the effects of stock and option bid ask prices simultaneity of stock and option prices depth of market execution lag and transaction costs the small and relatively infrequent profits due to market mispricing disappear in the lower boundary tests when transaction costs are taken into account frequent violations of the tighter boundary conditions in the implied standard deviation test are reported but the estimated profits cannot be unambiguously attributed to option market inefficiency

option pricing and replication with transactions costs transactions costs invalidate the black scholes arbitrage argument for option pricing since continuous revision implies infinite trading discrete revision using black scholes deltas generates errors which are correlated with the market and do not approach zero with more frequent revision when transactions costs are included this paper develops a modified option replicating strategy which depends on the size of transactions costs and the frequency of revision hedging errors are uncorrelated with the market and approach zero with more frequent revision the technique permits calculation of the transactions costs of option replication and provides bounds on option prices

decoupling co2 emission and economic growth in china is there consistency in estimation results in analyzing environmental kuznets curve china is one of the highest growth economies in the world and it has experienced a significant rise in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades its economic growth heavily depends on fossil fuels of coal and oil which led to huge amount of greenhouse gas emissions this study logically analyzes the nexus of co2 emissions economic growth and energy consumption by decoupling greenhouse gas emission of co2 and economic growth to provide more conclusive evidence on the phenomenon of the environmental kuznets curve ekc over the period 1970 2015 to achieve the objective of consistency in the estimation results the study applies different estimation techniques such as ardl auto regressive distributed lag model fmols fully modified ordinary least squares dols dynamic ordinary least squares and impulse response and variance decomposition in addition the business as usual inverted u shaped relationship between gdp per capita and an economy related co2 emission is hypothesized the result supports the environmental kuznets curve ekc hypothesis from different techniques the turning point hovers around 744665 the estimation result indicates that china ekc turning point shows some inconsistencies when compared to other turning points obtained from different studies the inconsistency of the ekc turning point is attributed to the sensitivity of the result to different data source variables selection different pollutants and scope of the data although the ekc turning point of this present research differs from other china ekc turning points it gives a clear policy roadmap on the pursuance of long run economic growth in favour of environmental quality besides significance of the turning point lies with the need to explore other structural policies such as articulated demographic and energy policies rather than passively waiting for the arrival of the inflexion point one interesting findings of the analysis is the consistency of the estimation results from the different estimation techniques

estimates of the demand for energy using cross country consumption data using cross country consumption data we estimate a system of demand equations in a piecewise manner to investigate whether price and expenditure elasticities for energy differ between broad groups of countries the empirical results reject the assumption of constant parameters across regimes of poor and rich countries the derived elasticities suggest that the own price elasticity for energy is higher in poor than in rich countries we find no evidence for the commonly held view that expenditure elasticities for energy decline with income

risk financial markets and human capital in a developing country this paper explores the link between financial market incompleteness and human capital accumulation we examine how child school attendance responds to seasonal fluctuations in the income of agrarian households using panel data from rural india to pinpoint market imperfections we study responses to aggregate and idiosyncratic as well as to anticipated and unanticipated income shocks our main finding is that seasonal fluctuations in school attendance are a form of self insurance but one which does not result in a substantial loss of human capital on average

an analysis of the risk in discretely rebalanced option hedges and delta based techniques the stochastic properties of discretely rebalanced option hedges have been studied extensively beginning with black and scholes 1973 in each analysis hedges were delta neutral after rebalancing we argue that the distributional properties of discretely rebalanced hedges are such that delta based hedging is not the variance minimizing strategy this paper obtains analytical expressions for the variance minimizing option hedge ratios we also evaluate the hedge variance to assess the magnitude of the variance reduction over delta based hedges for representative parameter values we show that systematic departures from delta based hedges can yield significant reductions in hedge variance even for one day rebalancing intervals

metaanalisis de las elasticidades ingreso y precio de la demanda de energia algunas implicaciones de politica publica para america latina the aim of this paper is to analyze the variation in empirical estimates of the income and price elasticities of energy demand the evidence presented through a meta analysis allows identification of the weighted average of the income and price elasticities shows that the estimates are very heterogeneous that there is publication bias and that factors such as region energy sector among others affect its volatility the evidence also indicates that income elasticity in latin america is greater than in the oecd countries and that the price elasticity of energy demand is lower in latin america than in the oecd countries therefore continued economic growth in latin america will be accompanied by a growth in energy demand moreover the establishment of a tax in latin america under the current elasticities is less effective and will be insufficient to control the increase in energy consumption

sectoral demand for petroleum in thailand this paper examines the short run and long run determinants of final oil consumption in seven major economic sectors in thailand two different approaches are compared the first approach uses dynamic panel data estimation techniques taking into account oil consumption of the whole economy in an aggregate manner the second approach employs the adl equilibrium correction framework to model oil demand in each economic sector separately the dynamic panel data approach estimates appear consistent with economic theory the coefficients have the correct signs and the magnitudes of long run responses are larger than the short run responses the single sector model approach yields similar but richer results relaxing the identical slope assumption reveals interesting sector specific characteristics

highlighting the connection between financial development and consumption of energy in countries with the highest economic freedom abstract this study explores the association that financial development economic freedom and the price of gasoline had with gasoline consumption in 28 countries with the highest economic freedom for the period 1996 2017 the ardl analysis methodology was used to construct a heterogeneous dynamic panel to test the panel data the westerlund panel cointegration test was then performed to determine if the factors were cointegrated finally we used the dumitrescu hurlin panel causality test in order to develop effective policies the results state that both financial development and the price of gasoline play an essential role in reducing the consumption of gasoline additionally economic freedom is closely related to an increase in gasoline consumption by employing the variable of the global financial crisis gfc the robustness test shows the negative and statistically significant effect of the latter on gasoline consumption and confirms the main findings therefore the gfc played a crucial role in changing the economic plans of the countries with high levels of economic freedom this suggests that these countries should reinforce financial development to generate green innovations further important policy implications for the 28 countries with the highest economic freedom are provided at the end of the paper

does child labour displace schooling evidence on behavioral responses to an enrollment subsidy this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled does child labour displace schooling evidence on behavioral responses to an enrollment subsidy conducted between 1995 and 1996 in bangladesh the study observed that the subsidy increases schooling but its effect on child labour is ambiguous the subsidy increased schooling by far more than it reduced child labour substitution effects helped protect current incomes from the higher school attendance induced by the subsidy substitution effects helped protect current incomes from the higher school attendance induced by the subsidy the reduction in the incidence of child labour by boys girls represents about one quarter eighth of the increase in their school enrollment rate

the trade off between child labour and human capital formation a tanzanian case study we investigate the degree to which there is a trade off between child labour and human capital formation using time log data of children from a tanzanian household survey we find that a tradeoff between hours of work and study exists and hours of work tend to be more affected by social conditions than hours of study hours of work are negatively correlated to reading and mathematical skills through the reduction of human capital investment activities indicating a trade off between child labour and human capital the results point up the complexity of the issue and the need for detailed time allocation data

gasoline demand the case of saudi arabia this paper specifies a partial adjustment model to estimate the demand for gasoline in saudi arabia for the period 1970 1985 it is found that the demand for gasoline is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run as compared to other countries the kingdom s gasoline demand elasticities more closely resemble those of industrial countries

energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized countries the dynamic aggregate time series relationship abstract most econometric studies suggest that the income elasticity of demand for energy is approximately unity for the developed market economies it is shown that over the period 1950 1978 the long run income elasticity is substantially higher than unity in terms of a ces energy demand function this result reflects the application of a generalized dynamic estimation methodology where serial correlation is regarded as a diagnostic guide to distributed lag fitting price elasticities are also estimated but these are in line with conventional estimates

hedging demands in hedging contingent claims minimum variance hedging of a contingent claim in discrete time is suboptimal when the contingent claim is hedged for multiple periods and the objective is to maximize the expected utility of cumulative hedging errors this is because the hedging errors are not independent the difference between a minimum variance hedge and the optimal multiperiod hedge is called the hedging demand and depends on the hedger s preferences the characteristics of the contingent claim the trading frequency and horizon and most importantly the joint distribution of the contingent claim and the underlying security prices since modeling this joint distribution is empirically controversial i examine nonparametrically the economic importance of hedging demands in the case of hedging standard poor s 500 index options

ethanol demand in brazil regional approach abstract successive studies attempting to clarify national aspects of ethanol demand have assisted policy makers and producers in defining strategies but little information is available on the dynamic of regional ethanol markets this study aims to analyze the characteristics of ethanol demand at the regional level taking into account the peculiarities of the developed center south and the developing north northeast regions regional ethanol demand is evaluated based on a set of market variables that include ethanol price consumer s income vehicle stock and prices of substitute fuels i e gasoline and natural gas a panel cointegration analysis with monthly observations from january 2003 to april 2010 is employed to estimate the long run demand elasticity the results reveal that the demand for ethanol in brazil differs between regions while in the center south region the price elasticity for both ethanol and alternative fuels is high consumption in the north northeast is more sensitive to changes in the stock of the ethanol powered fleet and income these among other evidences suggest that the pattern of ethanol demand in the center south region most closely resembles that in developed nations while the pattern of demand in the north northeast most closely resembles that in developing nations

demand for oil products in the gcc countries abstract the purpose of this study is to estimate the price and income elasticities of oil products demand in the gcc countries annual data spanning the period 1970 1991 were fitted to a partial adjustment model to obtain the estimates the main finding of the study is that both price and income are relatively inelastic in the short run and there has been a great variation in these elasticities among fuels and cross country

social interactions and schooling decisions abstract the aim of this paper is to study whether a child s schooling choices are affected by the schooling choices of other children identification is based on a randomized targeted intervention that grants a cash subsidy conditional on school attendance to a subgroup of eligible children within small rural villages in mexico progresa this policy change spills over to ineligible children if social interactions are relevant results indicate that the eligible children tend to attend school more frequently and the ineligible children acquire more schooling when the subsidy is introduced in their local village moreover the overall effect of progresa on eligible children is the sum of a direct effect due to cash transfers and an indirect effect due to changes in peer group schooling interestingly the social interactions effect is almost as important as the direct effect

measuring the distance between relative price vectors of different countries abstract a simple measure is developed for the distance between relative price vectors it is applied to cross country data the procedure also provides a justification for the use of geometric mean prices in cross country demand analysis

the demand for electricity and natural gas in the northeastern united states the demand for natural gas and electricity for the residential commercial and industrial sectors was estimated using a combination of the error components model and seemingly unrelated regressions the estimated demand models showed both natural gas and electricity to be price elastic in the long run and price inelastic in the short run in all sectors except the commercial sector in which electricity demand is unresponsive to its own price natural gas had negligible income elasticities in the residential and commercial sectors and a long run income elasticity of 2 86 in the industrial sector electricity had an insignificant income effect in all sectors but the industrial where its long run elasticity was unitary only in the residential demand for natural gas is the cross price elasticity substantial with the price of electricity having a long run cross elasticity of 1 70 fuel oil prices generally had a negative impact probably indicating a large income effect the elasticities of adjustment were higher for natural gas than electricity indicating a faster adjustment to change either in response to greater instability in energy availability or reflecting more alternative fuels or both 16 references 4 tables

world product and income international comparisons of real gross product the volume reports on the third phase of the united nations international comparison project icp the main results provide comparisons of real gross domestic product gdp per capita for thirty four countries in 1975 quantity and price comparisons are given also for personal consumption capital formation and public consumption and further subdivisions of final expenditures on gdp are estimated

valuation of american call options on dividend paying stocks empirical tests abstract this paper examines the pricing performance of the valuation equation for american call options on stocks with known dividends and compares it with two suggested approximation methods the approximation obtained by substituting the stock price net of the present value of the escrowed dividends into the black scholes model is shown to induce spurious correlation between prediction error and 1 the standard deviation of stock return 2 the degree to which the option is in the money or out of the money 3 the probability of early exercise 4 the time to expiration of the option and 5 the dividend yield of the stock a new method of examining option market efficiency is developed and tested

the systematic risk of discretely rebalanced option hedges this paper demonstrates that black scholes option pricing model hedge positions that are risk free when rebalanced continuously will frequently exhibit substantial systematic risk when rebalanced at finite intervals this systematic risk may have biased important empir ical tests of the option pricing model moreover this systematic risk means that the blackscholes option pricing model is inherently inconsistent with the discrete time version of the capital asset pricing model capm