inefficient credit booms this paper studies the welfare properties of competitive equilibria in an economy with financial frictions hit by aggregate shocks in particular it shows that competitive financial contracts can result in excessive borrowing ex ante and excessive volatility ex post even though from a first best perspective the equilibrium always displays under borrowing from a second best point of view excessive borrowing can arise the inefficiency is due to the combination of limited commitment in financial contracts and the fact that asset prices are determined in a spot market this generates a pecuniary externality that is not internalized in private contracts the model provides a framework to evaluate preventive policies which can be used during a credit boom to reduce the expected costs of a financial crisis copyright 2008 wiley blackwell

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

mitigating the pro cyclicality of basel ii policy discussions on the recent financial crisis feature widespread calls to address the pro cyclical effects of regulation the main concern is that the new risk sensitive bank capital regulation basel ii may amplify business cycle fluctuations this paper compares the leading alternative procedures that have been proposed to mitigate this problem we estimate a model of the probabilities of default pds of spanish firms during the period 1987 2008 and use the estimated pds to compute the corresponding series of basel ii capital requirements per unit of loans these requirements move significantly along the business cycle ranging from 7 6 in 2006 to 11 9 in 1993 the comparison of the different procedures is based on the criterion of minimizing the root mean square deviations of each adjusted series with respect to the hodrick prescott trend of the original series the results show that the best procedures are either to smooth the input of the basel ii formula by using through the cycle pds or to smooth the output with a multiplier based on gdp growth our discussion concludes that the latter is better in terms of simplicity transparency and consistency with banks risk pricing and risk management systems for the portfolio of spanish commercial and industrial loans and a 45 loss given default lgd the multiplier would amount to a 6 5 surcharge for each standard deviation in gdp growth the surcharge would be significantly higher with cyclically varying lgds rafael repullo jesus saurina and carlos trucharte

evaluation of a hybrid seed contract between smallholders and a multinational company in east java indonesia this article evaluates a hybrid seed contract between indonesian smallholders and pioneer hybrid international a transaction cost approach was used to analyse contract participation total farm gross margins and labour and chemical use the empirical results suggest a the contract favours farmers with more irrigated land b the contract improved returns to farm capital and was welfare improving c the contract increased the demand for non family labour particularly female labour and d the contract increased the intensity of chemical use the success of the contract was attributed to the nature of the contracting process which was between pioneer and grower groups and not individual smallholders

consequences of bank distress during the great depression the consequences of bank distress for the economy during the depression remain an area of unresolved controversy since john m keynes 1931 and irving fisher 1933 macroeconomists have argued that bank distress magnified the extent of the economic decline during the depression as the intermediaries controlling money and credit banks were in a special position to transmit their distress to other sectors but the mechanism through which banking distress mattered for the economy has been hotly contested milton friedman and anna j schwartz 1963 saw the contraction in the money multiplier driven in their view by panicked depositors withdrawals of deposits as the primary mechanism through which banking distress affected the real economy they described the mechanism transmitting banking distress to the real sector as operating at the national level through changes in the aggregate supply of money and interest rates bank distress reduced the money supply available to the public either through the closure of banks and the consequent freezing of bank deposits or the withdrawals of deposits by depositors that feared bank failure ben s bernanke 1983 building on fisher 1933 emphasized the transmission of monetary shocks via their effects on the balance sheets of borrowers and on the supply of credit by banks borrowers balance sheets were worsened by debt deflation as the result of fixed dollar debt obligations borrowers net worth and cash flow declined with the rising value of debt service costs relative to income borrowers with positive net present value projects but weak balance sheets had less internally generated retained earnings to invest and could not qualify for credit furthermore bernanke argued that the contraction of the money supply produced contraction of nominal income and prices relative to fixed debt service which weakened borrowers balance sheets and in turn weakened banks not only did firms financial distress reduce the number of qualified borrowers the contraction in banks net worth forced a reduction in the supply of bank loans to qualified borrowers many firms and individuals relied on banks for credit and as those banks suffered losses of capital due to asset value declines and contractions in deposits as depositors reacted to bank weakness by withdrawing their funds even borrowers with viable projects and strong balance sheets experienced a decrease in the effective supply of loanable funds bernanke termed the combined weakening of borrowers balance sheets and the contraction in bank credit supply a rise in the cost of credit intermediation the scarcity of perfect substitutes for the positive net present value investments of firms with weak balance sheets and for the credit supplied by existing banks implies that the weakening of firms and banks balance sheets the disappearance of banks and the contraction in surviving banks lending made it more difficult for the economy to channel funds to their best use thus what began as a contraction in aggregate demand became a contraction in aggregate supply which magnified adverse economic shocks and prolonged and deepened the depression the financial distress of firms and banks and the decline in bank lending were not only symptoms of the depression but means for magnifying the shocks that caused the depression bernanke s statistical evidence in support of this story is derived from time series analysis at the national level in calomiris graduate school of business 601 uris hall columbia university 3022 broadway new york ny 10027 and national bureau of economic research e mail cc374 columbia edu mason department of finance drexel university 3141 chestnut street philadelphia pa 19104 e mail joe mason drexel edu we thank valerie ramey david wheelock charles himmelberg steve zeldes gary gorton two referees and seminar participants at columbia university wharton northwestern university and the 2001 economic history association meetings for helpful comments on an earlier draft we gratefully acknowledge support from the national science foundation the university of illinois and the federal reserve bank of st louis

partial vertical integration risk shifting and product rejection in the high value export supply chain the ghana pineapple sector summary high value export supply chains hold potential to improve smallholders welfare but their relative production inefficiency and moral hazard problems can cause exporters to prefer vertically integrated plantation production however pineapple exporters in ghana produce both for their own account and purchase from smallholders we hypothesize that vertical integration is only partial because exporters face large market risks that smallholders surprisingly are better able to absorb we show empirically that exporters average rejection rate of export quality fruit is high and varies in response to unanticipated fluctuations in european demand these results support the hypothesis and are consistent with theories of partial vertical integration but not the standard principal agent paradigm

loan supply and bank capital a micro macro linkage abstract in the presence of financial frictions banks capital position may constrain their ability to provide loans the banking sector may thus have important feedback effects on the macroeconomy to shed new light on this issue we combine two approaches first we use microeconomic balance sheet data from germany and estimate banks loan supply response to capital changes second we modify the model of gertler and karadi 2011 such that it can be calibrated to the estimated partial equilibrium elasticity of bank loan supply with respect to bank capital although the targeted elasticity is remarkably different from the one in the baseline model banks continue to be an important originator and amplifier of macroeconomic shocks thus combining microeconometric results with macroeconomic modeling provides evidence on the effects of the banking sector on the macroeconomy

a micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches this article presents a micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches using a survey among german firms which regularly queries the firms assessment of the current willingness of banks to extend credit we estimate the probability of a restrictive loan supply policy by time taking into account the creditworthiness of borrowers creditworthiness is approximated by firm specific factors e g the firms assessment of their current business situation and their business expectations after controlling for the return on the banks risk free investment alternative which is also likely to affect the supply of loans we derive a credit crunch indicator which measures that part of the shift in the loan supply that is neither explained by firm specific factors nor by the opportunity costs of providing risky loans

the economics of small business finance the roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle abstract this article examines the economics of financing small business in private equity and debt markets firms are viewed through a financial growth cycle paradigm in which different capital structures are optimal at different points in the cycle we show the sources of small business finance and how capital structure varies with firm size and age the interconnectedness of small firm finance is discussed along with the impact of the macroeconomic environment we also analyze a number of research and policy issues review the literature and suggest topics for future research

a real options approach to bankruptcy costs evidence from failed commercial banks during the 1990s literature identifies three main aspects of liquidation costs firm size asset specificity and industry concentration this paper unifies the theory behind these aspects of bankruptcy costs by treating them as components of a broader option valuation problem faced by the liquidating trustee testing the hypothesized asset price relationships on fdic failed bank liquidation data yields the appropriate results furthermore it appears that liquidation time alone can be used as an effective second order proxy for asset value growth where market value estimates are unavailable

how do banks respond to shocks a dynamic model of deposit taking institutions abstract this paper proposes a dynamic model of the optimal choices of a bank that benefits from market power and takes into account the impact of the deposit generation process interbank lending borrowing emerges as a buffer that assists the bank in smoothing intertemporal adjustments in interdependent loan and deposit choices the bank smooths the impact of interest rates shocks on its customers to minimize the adjustments over time of the stocks of deposits and loans it does not however provide insurance against negative shocks of real origin that increase its expected default costs the predictions of the model help to shed light on the available empirical evidence and to analyze some recent developments of the banking industry

prudential regulation and the credit crunch evidence from japan the underlying causes of sharp declines in bank lending during recessions in large developed economies as exemplified by the u s in the early 1990s and japan in the late 1990s are still being debated due to the lack of any convincing identification strategy of the supply side capital lending relationship from lending demand using within bank share of real estate lending in the late 1980s as an instrumental variable for bank capital we find that japanese banks cut back on their lending in response to a large loss of bank capital in fiscal year 1997

information and participation in social programs participation in social programs such as clubs and other social organizations results from a process in which an agent learns about the requirements benefits and likelihood of acceptance related to a program applies to be a participant and finally is accepted or rejected we propose a model of this participation process and provide an application of the model using data from a social program in mexico our empirical analysis illustrates that decision at each stage of the process are responsive to expectations about the decisions and outcomes at the subsequent stages and that knowledge about the program can have a significant impact on participation outcomes

financial factors in the great depression eginning with irving fisher 1933 and john maynard keynes 1931 b 1963 macroeconomists have argued that financial markets were important sources and propagators of decline during the great depression turning points during the depression often coincided with or were preceded by dramatic events in financial markets stock market collapse waves of bankruptcy and bank failure and contractions in the money stock but the mechanism through which financial factors contributed to the depression has been a source of controversy as has been the relative importance of financial factors in explaining the origins and persistence of the depression this essay reviews the literature on the role of financial factors in the depression and draws some lessons that have more general relevance for the study of the depression and for macroeconomics i argue that much of the recent progress that has been made in understanding some of the most important and puzzling aspects of financial real links in the depression followed a paradigm shift in economics a central neglected theoretical piece of the story for financial factors was the allocative effects of imperfections in capital markets which can imply links between disruptions in financial markets and subsequent economic activity also the increasing emphasis on learning and path dependence in economics has helped to explain why financial shocks during the 1930s were so severe and why policy makers failed to prevent the depression

zombie lending and depressed restructuring in japan this paper explores the role that misdirected bank lending played in prolonging the japanese macroeconomic stagnation that began in the early 1990s the investigation focuses on the wide spread practice of japanese banks of continuing to lend to otherwise insolvent firms we docu ment the prevalence of this forbearance lending and show its distorting effects on healthy firms that were competing with the impaired firms the paper by hoshi 2000 was the first to call attention to this phenomenon and its ramifi

did the financial crisis in japan affect household welfare seriously we investigate whether and how the credit crunch during the financial crisis in japan affected household welfare we estimate the consumption euler equation with endogenous credit constraints using household panel data for 1993i 1999 generating several findings first a small but non negligible portion of the households faced credit constraints during the crisis rejecting the standard consumption euler equation second the credit crunch affected household welfare negatively albeit not seriously the estimated welfare loss ranges between two to ten percent increases in marginal utility depending on income level finally our results corroborate that the credit crunch in japan was supply driven

poverty in palanpur the meaning and identification of poverty are examined using three indicators of standard of living in the north indian village of palanpur the first is intended as a measure of apparent prosperity based on the personal assessments of investigators after intensive field work in the village over the full agricultural year 1983 84 the other two are income in 1983 84 and a measure of permanent income obtained by averaging incomes from four surveys conducted over a twenty six year interval a comparison of these three indicators shows that income measured in any one year may give a misleading impression of the incidence of poverty the risk of poverty for households is calculated vulnerability is high among low caste households and those which are involved in agricultural labor categories however are not homogeneous for example whereas the landless and widows are more likely to be poor some of such households are quite well off it is argued that poverty in a good agricultural year is a better indicator of sustained poverty than poverty in a bad year occupational mobility out of agricultural labor is low and changes in the distribution of land are largely accounted for by demographic processes such as household splits

natural disasters damage to banks and firm investment this article investigates the effect of banks lending capacity on firms investment to identify exogenous shocks to loan supply we utilize the natural experiment provided by japan s great hanshin awaji earthquake in 1995 using a unique data set that allows us to identify firms and banks in the earthquake affected areas we find that the investment ratio of firms located outside the earthquake affected areas but having a main bank inside the areas was significantly smaller than that of firms located outside the areas and having a main bank outside the areas our findings suggest that loan supply shocks affect firm investment abstract from author

the international transmission of financial shocks the case of japan one of the more dramatic financial events of the late 1980s and early 1990s was the surge in japanese stock prices that was immediately followed by a very sharp decline of more than 50 percent while the unprecedented fluctuations in japanese stock prices were domestic financial shocks the unique institutional characteristics of the japanese economy produce a framework that is particularly suited to the transmission of such shocks to other countries through the behavior of the japanese banking system the large size of japanese bank lending operations in the united states enables us to use u s banking data to investigate the extent to which this domestic japanese financial shock was transmitted to the united states as well as to identify a supply shock to u s bank lending that is independent of u s loan demand we find that binding risk based capital requirements associated with the decline in the japanese stock market resulted in a decline in commercial lending by japanese banks in the united states that was both economically and statistically significant this finding has added importance given the severe real estate loan problems currently faced by japanese banks how japanese bank regulators decide to resolve these problems will have significant implications for credit availability in the united states as well as in other countries with a significant japanese bank presence

targeting the poor evidence from a field experiment in indonesia the brief summarizes the targeting the poor evidence from a field experiment in indonesia for the period december 2008 january 2009 this paper reports an experiment in 640 indonesian villages on three approaches to target the poor proxy means tests pmt where assets are used to predict consumption community targeting where villagers rank everyone from richest to poorest and a hybrid defining poverty based on ppp 2 per capita consumption community targeting and the hybrid perform somewhat worse in identifying the poor than pmt though not by enough to significantly affect poverty outcomes for a typical program elite capture does not explain these results instead communities appear to apply a different concept of poverty

on the unequal inequality of poor communities important differences exist between communities with respect to their needs capacities and circumstances as central governments are not able to discern these differences fully they seek to achieve their policy objectives by relying on decentralized mechanisms that use local information however household and individual characteristics within communities can also vary substantially a growing theoretical literature suggests that inequality within communities can influence policy outcomes and that this influence could be harmful or helpful depending on the circumstances empirical investigations into the impact of inequality have to date largely been held back by a lack of systematic evidence on community level inequality the authors use household survey and population census data to estimate per capita consumption inequality within communities in three developing countries ecuador madagascar and mozambique communities are found to vary markedly from one another in terms of the degree of inequality they exhibit the authors also show that there should be no presumption that inequality is less severe in poor communities they argue that the kind of community level inequality estimates generated in this paper can be used in designing and evaluating decentralized antipoverty programs

monetary transmission and bank competition in the emu the introduction of the euro has led to renewed attention for monetary transmission in the european union this special issue of the journal of banking and finance includes papers that contribute to the development of both the theory and empirical applications of the monetary transmission channel that assumes various types of imperfections the issue includes papers that can best be described by the credit view and studies on concentration and competition in the european banking industry this introduction positions the papers in this active field of research c 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

distributional effects of agricultural cooperatives in china exclusion of smallholders and potential gains on participation abstract this paper examines the treatment effects of the agricultural cooperative and publicly funded extension services on individual household economy using data collected by the author from watermelon producing farm households in rural nanjing the cooperative addressed in this study restricts the participation of small scale farmers implying that selection into the program must be taken into consideration for an accurate assessment of the treatment effect the econometric analysis revealed that government extension services have a modest effect on farm income in contrast the treatment effect of the agricultural cooperative is robust and substantially large accounting for nearly 70 of the pre matching difference this suggests that the agricultural cooperative system is an important avenue for farmers to improve their economic status the treatment effect of the agricultural cooperative is highly heterogeneous the economic benefits arising from the cooperative are significant only for small scale farms we can argue that a coexistence of smallholder exclusion and the treatment effect in favor of small scale farms poses serious challenges to pro poor agricultural growth in china

federal home loan bank advances and commercial bank portfolio composition this paper considers the role of federal home loan bank fhlb advances in stabilizing their commercial bank members residential mortgage lending activities our theoretical model shows that using mortgage related membership criteria or requiring mortgage related collateral does not ensure that fhlb advances will be put to use for stabilizing members financing of housing using panel vector autoregression var techniques we estimate recent dynamic responses of u s bank portfolios to fhlb advance shocks bank lending shocks and macroeconomic shocks our empirical findings suggest that fhlb advances are just as likely to fund other types of bank credit as to fund single family mortgages

cross border banking credit access and the financial crisis abstract we study the sensitivity of credit supply to bank financial conditions in 16 emerging european countries before and during the financial crisis we use survey data on 10 701 applicant and non applicant firms that enable us to disentangle effects driven by positive and negative shocks to the banking system from demand shocks that may vary across lenders we find strong evidence that firms access to credit was affected by changes in the financial conditions of their banks during the crisis firms were more credit constrained if they were dealing with banks that experienced a decline in equity and tier 1 capital as well as losses on financial assets we also find that access to credit reflects the balance sheet conditions of foreign parent banks the effect of positive and negative shocks to a bank is greater for riskier firms and firms with fewer tangible assets

the capital crunch neither a borrower nor a lender be the dramatic reduction in the growth rate of bank lending associated with the 1990 91 recession particularly in new england has evoked claims by many observers of a credit crunch however because of the difficulty in determining whether the observed slow credit growth is a demand or supply phenomenon convincing evidence of the practical importance of credit crunches for economic activity remains elusive we overcome this obstacle by examining a cross section of banks in new england that have experienced the same economic downturn effectively controlling for changes in demand we find empirical support for a capital crunch whereby poorly capitalized institutions shrink to satisfy capital requirements this alone is not a sufficient condition for a credit crunch however we find s6me additional evidence that the ca ital crunch may have limited credit availability in new england

financial in stability supervision and liquidity injections a dynamic general equilibrium approach we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with an heterogeneous banking sector we introduce endogenous default probabilities for both firms and banks and allow for bank regulation and liquidity injection into the interbank market our aim is to understand the interactions between the banking sector and the rest of the economy as well as the importance of supervisory and monetary authorities to restore financial stability the model is calibrated against real us data and used for simulations we show that basel regulation reduces the steady state but improves the resilience of the economy to shocks and that moving from basel i to basel ii is procyclical we also show that liquidity injections relieve financial instability but have ambiguous effects on output fluctuations

in search of capital crunch supply factors behind the credit slowdown in japan the seeming failure of loose monetary policy to reactivate japan s economy has led some observers to suggest that the usual credit channels through which monetary policy affects the real economy are blocked and this is because of a pervasive shortage of bank capital that has induced a leftward shift in the supply of bank credit this is the so called capital crunch hypothesis this paper finds support for the hypothesis in the bank data for 1997 a year during which the landscape of the japanese financial system underwent some fundamental changes

targeting the poor in mexico an evaluation of the selection of households into progresa abstract in this paper we conduct an evaluation of the targeting method used by health education and nutrition program progresa of mexico to identify beneficiary households we address two key questions a how well does progresa s targeting perform and b how does the program perform in terms of its impact on poverty alleviation relative to other feasible methods and transfer schemes the first question is accomplished by comparing progresa s method to an alternative selection method based on household consumption which is our preferred measure of welfare we employ the concepts of undercoverage and leakage and find that progresa selection method is more effective in identifying the extremely poor localities or households but less so when it comes to distinguishing among localities or households in the middle of the scale to address the second question we compare the potential impact of progresa on poverty alleviation against uniform transfers that involve no targeting at all targeting based on consumption and geographic targeting i e targeting at the locality level rather than at the household level we find that progresa s method of targeting households outperforms uniform coverage and targeting at the locality level in terms of reducing the poverty gap and severity of poverty indices even after taking into account the economic costs of targeting but the closeness of progresa s performance to what could be achieved by geographic targeting alone raises some serious questions about the costs and benefits associated with the practice of household targeting within poor localities

socio economic studies on suicide a survey abstract in this paper we review economic theories and empirical studies on the socio economic aspects of suicide through our survey we would like to emphasize the importance of studying suicide by employing a rational approach that complements the medical perspective on suicide we first introduce major economic theories of suicide and then present a summary of a variety of empirical studies from the socio economic perspective to shed light on the mixed empirical evidence we employ a meta regression method to investigate how the existing empirical results vary we have identified a publication bias not highlighted previously in the existing literature with respect to several commonly employed socio economic factors several characteristics of existing studies have been identified as influencing the qualitative outcome we then discuss the recent developments in economic studies on suicide on the basis of the authors ongoing project on suicide in the concluding section we point out some issues for further studies

can regulators allow banks to set their own capital ratios abstract basel regulators have received widespread criticism for failing to prevent two credit crises that hit the u s over the last two decades nonetheless banks were considerably overcapitalized prior to the onset of the 2007 2009 subprime crisis compared to those which had undergone the 1990 1991 recession therefore if capital requirements were achieved prior to the subprime crisis how could the basel framework be blamed again for having accelerated if not caused another credit crunch we find that the answer to this question lies in the relationship between the capital ratio and the leverage ratio which is governed by risk weights categories determined by the basel regulation we show that changes to risk weight categories which affect the correlation pattern between both ratios are not reflected in the subprime crisis this minimizes the implication of the basel ii regulation in the crunch that succeeded its announcement in contrast to basel i we demonstrate that these dynamics are governed by a formula linking the two ratios together which derives from the sensitivity of the risk based capital ratio to a change in its risk weight s one implication of our work regarding the basel iii regulation consists in validating the newly established capital increments in a mathematical rather than heuristical approach

the great depression versus the great recession in the u s how fiscal monetary and financial polices compare abstract this study reviews the financial distress that triggered and amplified the financial crises of the great depression and great recession and compares macroeconomic and financial policy responses shadow banking funded the build up of the financial excesses that preceded both the quicker and forceful response of monetary and fiscal policy during the great recession and stronger action to restore market functionality mitigated the downturn and aided recovery nevertheless actions to address the mortgage debt overhang were slower post depression reforms focused on preventing deposit runs and post great recession reforms on preventing runs on bank debt and shadow banks while boosting capital buffers

risk averse bank managers exogenous shocks portfolio reallocations and market spillovers abstract this paper develops a model of the banking market in which individual banks make decisions concerning both the size and risk characteristics of their portfolios and in which actions of one bank spill over to affect actions of other banks various observed banking market behaviors such as herding credit crunches bank reaction to policy changes etc are explained as optimal bank responses to idiosyncratic or systemic shocks

retrospective on the bubble period and its relationship to developments in the 1990s in reviewing what happened in the 1980s in japan and how the bursting of the bubble created problems in the early 1990s the following conclusions are obtained 1 in order to limit damage to the economy from a bubble and its bursting it is important to build a resilient financial system through strict supervision policy so that asset price fluctuations would not weaken financial institutions supervision policy would include regulatory measures limiting lending concentration and exposure to real estate related sectors 2 monetary policy should pay attention to asset price movements but it may be difficult and inappropriate to raise the interest rate sharply when inflation is low below one per cent like in japan even though asset prices are increasing at 30 40 per cent 3 the official discount rate could have been raised in the summer of 1988 in japan when the federal reserve and bundesbank raised interest rates this would have slowed down the rise of stock and land prices but the bubble was already large by then 4 the bubble in the second half of the 1980s was only partially responsible for the lost decade of the 1990s in japan a series of policy errors made a small problem of the burst bubble much bigger than necessary

joint liability borrowing and suicide the case of japan abstract this paper develops a model for joint liability borrowings that facilitates credit market transactions ex ante but may induce the borrower s suicide ex post through the stigma associated with default a japanese suicide survey provides some supportive evidence

are the welfare losses from imperfect targeting important we quantify and compare the size of the welfare losses arising from the use of alternative imperfect welfare indicators as substitutes for the conventionally preferred consumption indicator we find that the size of the welfare losses associated with different indicators varies considerably an asset based index and the share of food as targeting indicators were found to have the highest welfare losses relative to all other targeting indicators examined our preferred welfare index implies that the losses from the two best targeting indicators i e reported expenditures and reported income are statistically significant but very low less than 5

local government spending multipliers and financial distress evidence from japanese prefectures we estimate local government spending multipliers using annual data for 47 japanese prefectures during the 1990s our main findings are as follows the average local government spending multiplier is positive and significantly different from zero but not larger than one there are large and significant differences in the output effects of different types of government expenditures transfers to firms have the highest multiplier significantly larger than one while transfers to households have the lowest multiplier significantly below zero firms financial distress has a significant negative effect on the local government spending multiplier in contrast to economic slack that has a significant positive effect

the real effects of banking shocks evidence from oecd countries abstract this paper studies the impact of shocks to banks balance sheets on real economic activity the sample consists of 18 oecd countries observed annually from 1979 to 2003 using the rajan zingales method i find that industries that depend more heavily on external finance respond more strongly to bank income shocks suggesting that banking shocks propagate to the real economy the bank effect lasts for 2 years but it is economically significant mainly for large shocks which are relatively rare similar findings are obtained by comparing durable versus non durable goods and by estimating aggregate bank effects

bank regulation and the credit crunch abstract this study investigates the direct link between regulatory enforcement actions and the shrinkage of bank loans to sectors likely to be bank dependent we partition the shrinkage due to loan supply into the component due to explicit regulatory enforcement actions and that due to a voluntary response by bank management to low capital to asset ratios we find that banks with formal actions shrink at a significantly faster rate than those without even after controlling for differences in capital to asset ratios furthermore much of the reduced lending has been in categories containing primarily loans to bank dependent borrowers

impact of contracts in high yielding varieties seed production on profits and yield the case of nepal abstract nepal s population continues to grow but the agricultural sector s performance remains almost stagnant this has led to a decline in the per capita availability of food increasing agricultural productivity is the key to agricultural growth and one strategy for increasing agricultural productivity is to use improved seeds this study investigates the impact of contract farming cf in high yielding varieties hyv of paddy seed production on costs yield and profits of smallholder farms in nepal using farm level data and a non parametric propensity score matching estimator the study finds a significant positive impact of contract hyv seed farming on revenues profits and yield and a significant negative impact on total costs of production additionally very small farms 0 43 ha with cf in hyv paddy seeds tend to gain the most when it comes to yield per hectare our estimates reveal that the average smallholder household in nepal engaged in cf with input conditions receives higher profits however farmers engaged in cf with output conditions tend to have higher yields but smaller profits finally farmers engaged in cf in hyv paddy seeds with both input and output conditions have the highest yield gains and significantly higher profits

the effectiveness of non standard monetary policy in addressing liquidity risk during the financial crisis the experiences of the federal reserve and the european central bank abstract a number of studies sought to measure the effects of non standard policy on bank funding markets this paper carries those estimates a step further by looking at the effects of bank funding market stress on the volume of bank lending by separately modeling loan supply and demand we determine how non standard central bank measures affected bank lending by reducing stress in bank funding markets our results suggest that non standard policy measures lowered bank funding volatility in the us and the euro area lower bank funding volatility in turn increased loan supply in both regions contributing to sustained lending activity

political influence and declarations of bank insolvency in japan this paper investigates how politics affects bank supervision by examining determinants of bank failures in japan during 1999 2002 a period during which bank regulators were called upon to resolve insolvent banks in preparation for the lifting of a blanket deposit guarantee the empirical results suggest that japan s bank regulators had tendency to delay declarations of insolvency in prefectures that supported senior politicians of the ruling liberal democratic party ldp this result which is robust to a host of bank level and prefecture level controls suggests that bank supervision is prone to political influence that delays efficient resolution of insolvency

credit crunch caused by bank failures and self selection behavior in lending markets this study investigates how bank failures affect the real economy from the lenders perspective using experimental settings of unique bank failures in japan this paper identifies the credit crunch effect by bank failures the main findings are the following first bank failures decrease the investments of the client firms by approximately 30 second the high investment growth level firms deal with unhealthy banks these choices generate a self selection bias of 30 80 third there is no evidence that bank failure shock is related to the firms accessibility to other financial sources

capital requirements and bank behavior in the uk are there lessons for international capital standards abstract the financial crisis prompted widespread interest in developing a better understanding of how capital regulation drives bank behavior this paper uses a unique comprehensive database of regulatory capital requirements on all uk banks to examine their effects on capital lending and balance sheet management behavior we find that capital requirements that include firm specific time varying add ons set by supervisors affect banks desired capital ratios and that resulting adjustments to capital and lending depend on the gap between actual and target ratios we use these results to measure the effects of a capital regime that includes features similar to those embedded in the uk framework our results suggest that countercyclical capital requirements may be less effective in slowing credit activity when banks can readily satisfy them with lower quality lower costing capital elements versus higher quality common equity given the size of the uk banking sector and the global nature of many of the largest institutions in the uk banking sector the results have implications for the ongoing debate surrounding the design and calibration of international capital standards

bank capital shocks dynamic effects on securities loans and capital abstract we used quarterly data for individual banks to estimate recent dynamic responses to bank capital shocks while it took bank capital and securities only one year to adjust to capital shocks liabilities and most loan categories took two to three years to complete their adjustments compared with those in the late 1980s capital shocks were twice as large and portfolio responses to capital shocks tended to be more rapid in the early 1990s larger banks adjusted each component of their portfolios faster than smaller banks capital shocks caused banks with capital shortfalls to contract more and more quickly in the 1990s than they had in the 1980s

targeting performance under self selection and administrative targeting methods abstract we evaluate the contributions of self selection and administrative targeting to program targeting performance using unique household survey data collected for the evaluation of a mexican social program that has acted as a regional prototype both forms of targeting improve targeting performance but administrative selection based on proxy means testing plays a crucial role in reducing total program coverage to meet a budget constraint while maintaining high coverage among the lowest income groups its importance is reinforced when existing knowledge barriers to participation are addressed reflecting the high application rates among higher income groups conditional on knowledge differentiating transfers based on household demographics also substantially improves targeting performance reflecting the linking of transfers to the number of children although expansion of the program to reduce the remaining undercoverage is likely to come at the expense of targeting performance this trade off can

managing quantity quality and timing in indian cane sugar production ex post marketing permits or ex ante production contracts private sugar processors in andhra pradesh india use an unusual form of vertical coordination they issue permits to selected cane growers a few weeks before harvest these permits specify the amount of cane to be delivered during a narrow time period this article investigates why processors create uncertainty among farmers using ex post permits instead of ex ante production contracts the theoretical model predicts that ex post permits are more profitable than ex ante contracts or the spot market under existing government regulations in the sugar sector which include a binding price floor for cane and the designation of a reserve area for each processor wherein it has a legal monopsony for cane the use of ex post permits creates competition among farmers to increase cane quality which increases processor profits and farmer costs empirical analysis supports the hypothesis that farmers operating in private factory areas have higher unit production costs than do their counterparts who patronize cooperatives

are banks really special new evidence from the fdic induced failure of healthy banks the fdic used cross guarantees in order to close 38 subsidiaries of first republicbank corporation in 1988 and 18 subsidiaries of first city bankcorporation in 1992 when lead banks from each of these texas based bank holding companies were declared insolvent i use this plausibly exogenous failure of otherwise healthy subsidiary banks as a natural experiment in order to study the impact of bank failure on local area real economic activity the resolution of these institutions was associated with a significant decline in failed bank lending that led to a permanent reduction in real county income of about 3 percent jel codes e5 g18 g33 keywords bank failures cross guarantee uniqueness of banks

did risk based capital allocate bank credit and cause a credit crunch in the united states this paper examines the reallocation of bank credit from loans to securities in the early 1990s using data on virtually all u s banks from 1979 to 1992 the authors investigate implementation of risk based capital and other regulatory and nonregulatory changes as possible causes of a supply driven credit crunch the main empirical implication of these credit crunch hypotheses that the reallocation of credit would be most associated with low capital high risk banks generally is not consistent with the data much of the reallocation is associated with demand side factors but it is difficult to differentiate cleanly among these factors copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

unnatural selection perverse incentives and the misallocation of credit in japan we examine the misallocation of credit in japan associated with the perverse incentives faced by banks to provide additional credit to the weakest firms firms are more likely to receive additional bank credit if they arein poor financial condition because troubled japanese banks have an incentive to allocate credit to severely impaired borrowers in order to avoid the realization of losses on their own balance sheets this evergreening behavior is more prevalent among banks that have reported capital ratios close to the required minimum and is compounded by the incentives arising from extensive corporate affiliations

finding the poor vs measuring their poverty exploring the drivers of targeting effectiveness in indonesia centralized targeting registries are increasingly used to allocate social assistance benefits in developing countries there are two key design issues that matter for targeting accuracy i which households to survey for inclusion in the registry and ii how to rank surveyed households the authors attempt to identify their relative importance by evaluating indonesia s unified database for social protection programs udb among the largest targeting registries in the world used to provide social assistance to over 25 million households linking administrative data with an independent household survey they find that the udb system is more progressive than previous program specific targeting approaches however simulating an alternative targeting system based on enumerating all households they find a one third reduction in undercoverage of the poor compared to focusing on households registered in the udb overall there are large gains in targeting performance from improving the initial registration stage relative to the ranking stage

linking smallholders to the new agricultural economy the case of the plataformas de concertacion in ecuador abstract this article examines the challenges of linking smallholders to high value food markets by looking at the experience of the plataformas programme in the ecuadorian sierra multiple evaluation methods are employed to ensure identification of program impact the findings suggest that the programme successfully improved the welfare of beneficiary farmers as measured by yields and gross margins these benefits are achieved through improving the efficiency of agricultural production and through selling at higher prices no significant secondary health or environmental effects were found overall the programme provides clear evidence that combining production support with facilitating market access can be successful

the role of technology and nontechnology shocks in business cycles this article proposes a method to identify technology and nontechnology shocks that permanently affect labor productivity and applies this method to data for the g7 countries in most cases whereas technology improvements have negative or weak effects on hours worked positive permanent nontechnology shocks are expansionary permanent nontechnology shocks play an important role in business cycles particularly in the united states and japan and account for 71 of a large reduction in japan s detrended output from 1991 to 2002 credit conditions are likely to be an important driver of variations in permanent nontechnology shocks

contagion and bank failures during the great depression the june 1932 chicago banking panic the authors examine the social costs of asymmetric information induced bank panics in an environment without government deposit insurance their case study is the chicago bank panic of june 1932 the authors compare the ex ante characteristics of panic failures and panic survivors despite temporary confusion about bank asset quality on the part of depositors during the panic which was associated with widespread depositor runs and bank stock price declines the panic did not produce significant social costs in terms of failures among solvent banks copyright 1997 by american economic association

japan s banking crisis an event study perspective we calculate abnormal stock returns for japanese non financial companies around major events associated with the banking crisis 1995 2000 and find that not all companies were equally sensitive to the malaise of the banking sector the most affected were small leveraged low tech companies with low credit ratings and low market to book ratios this is consistent with credit crunch theories companies with limited access to financial markets are sensitive to changes in bank lending and with claims that innovation is rarely financed by bank debt we do not find much evidence on the alleged misallocation of loans to support ailing bank clients

contract farming and vulnerability to poverty among oil palm smallholders in indonesia abstractthis article addresses smallholder oil palm farming in indonesia and the risk of falling into poverty by comparing contract and non contract smallholders we use an asset based approach to define vulnerability and apply propensity score matching analysis to assess the impact of contract farming data were collected from a cross sectional survey conducted in 2010 of 245 oil palm smallholder households 126 of which were contract smallholders the study finds that approximately 40 per cent of oil palm smallholders can be classified as stochastic transient poor we also show that while contract participation reduces the negative impact of oil palm price shocks this is not the case for production shocks the study concludes that despite positive income effects contract smallholders also remain vulnerable to poverty

shocks to bank capital evidence from uk banks at home and away this article assesses how shocks to bank capital may influence a bank s portfolio behaviour using novel evidence from a uk bank panel data set from a period that predates the recent financial crisis focusing on the behaviour of bank loans we extract the dynamic response of a bank to innovations in its capital and in its regulatory capital buffer we find that innovations in a bank s capital in this precrisis sample period were coupled with a loan response that lasted up to 3 years the international presence of uk banks allows us to identify a specific driver of capital shocks in our data independent of bank lending to uk residents specifically we use write offs on loans to nonresidents to instrument bank capital s impact on uk resident lending a fall in capital brought about a significant drop in lending in particular to private nonfinancial corporations pnfc in contrast household lending increased when capital fell which may indicate that in this precrisis period banks substituted into l

recapitalization credit and liquidity this paper documents the characteristics of public recapitalizations of banks undertaken since 2008 and examines their relationship with bank lending the analysis covers the 15 oecd countries whose banking sectors were most severely hit by the crisis and that provided the largest public bailouts relative to their national gross domestic product gdp we show that the design of the interventions varied considerably across banks and countries larger and higher loss absorbing capital injections were targeted at weaker banks and at banks of systemically relevant size when the state of public finances allowed our results encourage theoretical research with respect to non linear and potentially adverse effects of bailouts as well as further investigation into the link between the loss absorbing properties of bank capital and loan growth with respect to bank lending we find that only large recapitalizations and infusions of common equity are associated with higher total regulatory capital ratios and sustained loan growth we find no significant relationship between public capital provisions and interbank lending and challenge the view that local banks increase loan growth relatively more in response to a recapitalization mike mariathasan and ouarda merrouche

monetary policy and bank lending in developing countries loan applications rates and real effects abstract recent studies of monetary policy in developing countries document a weak bank lending channel based on aggregate data in this paper we bring new evidence using uganda s supervisory credit register with microdata on loan applications volumes and rates coupled with unanticipated variation in monetary policy we show that a monetary contraction reduces bank credit supply increasing loan application rejections and tightening loan volume and rates especially for banks with more leverage and sovereign debt exposure there are associated spillovers on inflation and economic activity including construction permits and trade and even social unrest

capital regulation and the macroeconomy empirical evidence and macroprudential policy abstract we present new evidence on the macroeconomic effects of changes in microprudential bank capital requirements using confidential regulatory data from the basel i and ii regimes in the united kingdom our central result is that an increase in capital requirements lowered lending to firms and households reduced aggregate expenditure and raised credit spreads a financial accelerator effect is found to have amplified the macroeconomic responses to shifts in bank credit supply results from a counterfactual experiment that links capital requirements to house prices and mortgage spreads indicate that tighter macroprudential policy would have had a moderating effect on house price and mortgage lending growth in the early 2000s with easier monetary policy acting to offset its contractionary effects on output

bank asset liquidation and the propagation of the u s great depression we hypothesize that financial disintermediation during and after the great depression arose from the slow liquidation of failed bank deposits empirical results from incorporating the stock of failed national bank deposits for the period 1921 40 in vector autoregression var models suggest that the stock of deposits in closed banks undergoing liquidation is as important as money stock in terms of explaining output changes over forecast horizons from one to three years hence we infer that the dynamic effects of banking sector shocks were cumulative and pervasive during and after the depression