optimal information disclosure in auctions and the handicap auction we analyze a situation where a monopolist is selling an indivisible good to risk neutral buyers who only have an estimate of their private valuations the seller can release without observing certain additional signals that affect the buyers valuations our main result is that in the expected revenue maximizing mechanism the seller makes available all the information that she can and her expected revenue is the same as it would be if she could observe the part of the information that is new to the buyers we also show that this mechanism can be implemented by what we call a handicap auction in interesting applications in the first round of this auction each buyer picks a price premium from a menu offered by the seller a smaller premium costs more then the seller releases the additional signals in the second round the buyers bid in a second price auction where the winner pays the sum of his premium and the second highest non negative bid in the case of a single buyer this mechanism simplifies to a menu of european call options

some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetary policy on exchange rates this paper investigates the effects of shocks to u s monetary policy on exchange rates we consider three measures of these shocks orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the romer and romer index of monetary policy in sharp contrast to the literature we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates specifically according to our results a contractionary shock to u s monetary policy leads to i persistent significant appreciations in u s nominal and real exchange rates and ii significant persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of u s interest rates

competing through information provision this paper studies the symmetric equilibria of a two buyer two seller model of directed search in which sellers commit to information provision more informed buyers have better differentiated private valuations and extract higher rents from trade when sellers cannot commit to sale mechanisms information provision is higher under competition than under monopoly in contrast when sellers commit to both information provision and sale mechanisms i identify simple conditions under which sellers post auctions and provide full information in every equilibrium ensuring that all equilibrium outcomes are constrained efficient sellers capture the efficiency gains from increased information and compete only over non distortionary rents offered to buyers

sealed bids sunk costs and the process of competition how do firms recover precontract costs for example suppose 10 firms compete in a sealed bid auction for the right to explore and develop an offshore oil field each spends 500 000 to estimate the value of the field and to prepare its bid suppose this investigation reveals that the tract is worth approximately 20 million if sunk costs do not matter competition dictates that the winner must bid 20 million but if the winner is to recover its prebid costs the maximum offer can be only 19 5 million furthermore long run industry equilibrium considerations suggest that the highest bid will be only 15 million 20 million minus the total bid preparation costs of 5 million if competition forces firms to charge marginal cost why do firms ever invest in resources which become sunk in some industries inframarginal rents can be used to recover these costs however the example above as well as many others involves an all or none deci

gathering imperfect information before signing a contract i study information gathering for rent seeking purposes in contracting in my model an agent learns his payoff type only after accepting a contract but can at costs acquire imperfect information while deliberating whether to accept i show that the principal deters the acquisition if and only if the costs are high the result stands in contrast to a finding by cremer and khalil 1992 who demonstrate that the acquisition of perfect information will always be deterred a key insight is that the case of imperfect information is an instance of a sequential screening problem

the brazilian experience of rural electrification in the amazon with decentralized generation the need to change the paradigm from electrification to development abstract there are at least 607 thousand households in the brazilian amazon that need to be attended with some form of regular electricity service these households are not attended by the electricity sector through its electricity distribution companies and most of them have some form of precarious decentralized electricity generation that is not registered or regulated in the institutional framework diverse initiatives were taken by brazilian government to attend these household through alternatives that relied on locally available renewable energy this paper accesses this initiatives of rural electrification in the brazilian amazon first an overview of the problems of rural electricity are discussed and its specificities in the brazilian amazon then the brazilian institutional framework that organizes the decentralized electricity generation is described with its various limitations the diverse initiatives undertaken to attend the rural communities in the amazon since the 1990s are described as well as how these initiatives are linked to the policies for rural electrification the results shows that it can be inferred that sole market mechanisms are not sufficient to guarantee economic sustainability of these projects this can be one of the reasons why traditional electricity distribution companies showed the lack of interest in promoting rural electrification with other means than grid extension the most successful projects had financed efforts to integrate the generation of electricity into local development initiatives in order to guarantee sustainability and used substantial part of funding for local mobilization and organization it needs a paradigm chance by treating these initiatives as local development initiatives and promoting alternative ways for its implementation through partnership between local new actors in the electricity sector and government and implementing policy on a local municipal level

biofuel from jatropha curcas environmental sustainability and option value abstract this paper considers the use of a non edible plant jatropha curcas j curcas for the production of biofuel as a substitute for traditional fossil fuel it is shown that the net energy balance and greenhouse gases ghgs balance are positive the investment value in biofuel from j curcas is also studied and both its intrinsic and option values are calculated a reference case is evaluated namely the cultivation of j curcas as a substitute for conventional fuel in a specific less developed country kenya that lies in the tropical region where j curcas grows the investment is modeled as a perpetual investment call option it is shown that the net present value is positive for a vast range of discount factors and investment costs while the option value depends crucially on the parameters of the model a positive option value points out those cases in which it is optimal to defer the investment even if it entails a positive and possibly high net present value

equilibrium in auctions with entry the authors model entry incentives in auctions with risk neutral bidders and characterize a symmetric equilibrium in which the number of entrants is stochastic the presence of too many potential bidders raises coordination costs that detract from welfare the authors show that the seller and society can benefit from policies that reduce market thickness i e the relative abundance of buyers their analysis extends well known revenue equivalence and ranking theorems but also demonstrates that variations in the auction environment affect optimal policies e g reservation prices in ways not anticipated by models that ignore entry copyright 1994 by american economic association

the impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate evidence from three small open economies this paper studies the impact effect of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate in australia canada and new zealand during the 1990s shocks are identified by the reaction of three month market interest rates to policy announcements that were not themselves endogenous to economic news on the same day the main result is that a 100 basis point contractionary shock will appreciate the exchange rate by 2 3 percent on impact the association of interest rate hikes with depreciations that is sometimes observed during periods of exchange market pressure is mainly attributable to reverse causality

conscientious vs ambivalent consumers do concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour abstract energy availability and climate change are interrelated concerns with economic components they need to be addressed by policy makers and they require changes in energy consumption this study examines whether concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour policy perceptions and beliefs about future energy consumption this question is investigated by analysing data from the eurobarometer 75 4 a comprehensive survey of citizens from all countries of the european union that was conducted in june 2011 n 26 840 the regression results show that people concerned about climate change were significantly more likely to take action to mitigate climate change and to be more favourably disposed towards energy policies and future changes in energy consumption than people who were not concerned about climate change on the other hand people who were concerned about energy availability undertook fewer actions and neither supported energy policies nor believed in future changes in energy consumption this surprising finding raises questions regarding the adequate communication of energy availability and policies to the public in the european union

pre sale information in markets as diverse as that for specialized industrial equipment or that for retail financial services sellers or intermediaries may earn profits both from the sale of products and from the provision of pre sale consultation services we study how a seller optimally chooses the costly quality of pre sale information next to the price of information and the product price and obtain clear cut predictions on when information is over and when it is underprovided even though we find that information quality does not satisfy a standard single crossing property buyers who are a priori more optimistic about their valuation end up paying a higher margin for information but a lower margin for the product when they subsequently exercise their option to purchase at a pre specified price

breakthroughs deadlines and self reported progress contracting for multistage projects we study the optimal incentive schemes for multistage projects staged financing pervasive in both venture capital and research grants arises as a feature of the optimal contract the nature of progress plays an important role when progress is tangible incentives are provided through a series of deadlines and a reward scheme that decreases over time early progress in one stage gives the agent more time and funding to complete the next one when progress is intangible unverifiable progress reports are used despite the fact that the information in the report has no social value the optimal contract involves a soft deadline wherein the principal guarantees funding up to a certain date if the agent reports progress at that date then the principal gives him a relatively short deadline to complete the project if not then a probationary phase begins in which the project is terminated at a constant rate until progress is reported we explore the implications for welfare and optimal project design

optimal procurement contracts with pre project planning the paper studies procurement contracts with pre project investigations in the presence of adverse selection and moral hazard to model the procurer s problem we extend a standard sequential screening model to endogenous information acquisition with moral hazard the optimal contract displays system atic distortions in information acquisition due to a rent effect adverse selection induces too much infor mation acquisition to prevent cost overruns and too little information acquisition to prevent false project cancellations moral hazard mitigates the distortions related to cost overruns yet exacerbates those related to false negatives the optimal mechanism is a menu of option contracts that achieves the dual goal of providing incentives for information acquisition and truthful information revelation

from linear fuel switching to multiple cooking strategies a critique and alternative to the energy ladder model abstract promoting sustainable development requires evaluating the technical and policy options that will facilitate the adoption and use of energy efficient and less polluting cooking stoves and practices the transition from traditional to modern fuels and devices has been explained by the energy ladder model that suggests that with increasing affluence a progression is expected from traditional biomass fuels to more advanced and less polluting fuels in this paper we evaluate the energy ladder model utilizing data from a four year 1992 96 case study of a village in mexico and from a large scale survey from four states of mexico we show that an alternate multiple fuel model of stove and fuel management based on the observed pattern of household accumulation of energy options rather than the simple progression depicted in the traditional energy ladder scenario more accurately depicts cooking fuel use patterns in rural households the multiple fuel model integrates four factors demonstrated to be essential in household decision making under conditions of resource scarcity or uncertainty a economics of fuel and stove type and access conditions to fuels b technical characteristics of cookstoves and cooking practices c cultural preferences and d health impacts this model also allows better estimates of the expected fuelwood demand and indoor air pollution in rural households

the price of advice we develop a model of consulting advising where the role of the consultant is to reveal signals to her client that refine the client s original private estimate of the profitability of a project although the client can perfectly observe and evaluate these signals the consultant may only be able to do the same imperfectly or not at all this captures the idea that the expert may not fully understand the impact of her advice on the client we characterize the optimal contract between the consultant and her client it is a menu consisting of pairs of transfers specifying payments between the two parties in case the project is undertaken by the client and in case it is not the main result of the article is that in the optimal mechanism the consultant obtains the same profit as though she could perfectly observe and evaluate the impact of the signals whose release she controls on the client s profit estimate

optimal monetary policy in open versus closed economies an integrated approach in clarida et al 1999 hereafter cgg we presented a normative analysis of monetary policy within a simple optimization based closedeconomy framework we derived the optimal policy rule and among other things characterized the gains from commitment also we made precise the implications for the kind of instrument feedback rule that a central bank should follow in practice in this paper we show how our analysis extends to the case of a small open economy openness complicates the problem of monetary management to the extent the central bank must take into account the impact of the exchange rate on real activity and inflation how to factor the exchange rate into the overall design of monetary policy accordingly becomes a central consideration here we show that under certain conditions the monetary policy design problem for the small open economy is isomorphic to the problem of the closed economy that we considered earlier hence all our qualitative results for the closed economy carry over to this case openness does affect the parameters of the model suggesting quantitative implications though the general form of the optimal interest rate feedback rule remains the same as in the closedeconomy case for example how aggressively a central bank should adjust the interest rate in response to inflationary pressures depends on the degree of openness in addition openness gives rise to an important distinction between domestic inflation and consumer price inflation as defined by the cpi to the extent that there is perfect exchange rate pass through we find that the central bank should target domestic inflation and allow the exchange rate to float despite the impact of the resulting exchangerate variability on the cpi kosuki aoki 1999 gali and tommaso monacelli 2000

conservation auctions should information about environmental benefits be made public most bid evaluation systems in conservation auctions consider both the proposed payment and the environmental attributes when auctioneers have a more comprehensive understanding of the conservation benefits than bidders do information becomes a central element of the auction design concealing information about conservation benefits may be the optimal strategy when entry decisions are not relevant however disclosing information may motivate landholders whose lands are associated with high environmental benefits to participate in an auction the present study demonstrates that revealing information about conservation benefits can be an optimal strategy if it enhances an auction s participation rate when bid acceptance rates are high copyright 2013 oxford university press

optimal dynamic mechanism design and the virtual pivot mechanism we consider the problem of designing optimal mechanisms for settings where agents have dynamic private information we present the virtual pivot mechanism which is optimal in a large class of environments that satisfy a separability condition the mechanism satisfies a rather strong equilibrium notion it is periodic ex post incentive compatible and individually rational we provide both necessary and sufficient conditions for immediate incentive compatibility for mechanisms that satisfy periodic ex post incentive compatibility in future periods the result also yields a strikingly simple mechanism for selling a sequence of items to a single buyer we also show that the allocation rule of the virtual pivot mechanism has a very simple structure a virtual index in multiarmed bandit settings finally we show through examples that the relaxation technique we use does not produce optimal dynamic mechanisms in general nonseparable environments

preferences for domestic fuel analysis with socio economic factors and rankings in kolkata india abstract the choice of domestic fuel is a matter of great concern for households and policy makers in india this paper investigates the demand for domestic fuels when households face four choices fuelwood coal kerosene and lpg the study is based on a survey of 500 households in kolkata india the demand estimates are conducted using a two stage process where the first stage investigates choice and the second the quantity used determinants of fuel demand are identified and their relative importance shown extending the study the paper also analyses the choice of the main cooking fuel in terms of the households stated rankings of six fuels for five attributes the policy discussion indicates that subsidies have less potential to reduce polluting fuels such as coal and fuelwood due to weak cross price elasticities while increased availability of lpg and potentially also increased awareness of indoor air pollution have greater prospect

from bottom of the barrel to cream of the crop sequential screening with positive selection in a number of interesting environments dynamic screening involves positive selection in contrast with coasian dynamics only the most motivated remain over time the paper provides conditions under which the principal s commitment optimum is time consistent and uses this result to derive testable predictions under permanent or transient shocks it also identifies environments in which time consistency does not hold despite positive selection and yet simple equilibrium characterizations can be obtained

on transparency in organizations when is it best for the principal to commit to not disclosing all that he she knows in moral hazard interactions i show that whenever the agent would choose the same action under complete information at several distinct states then full transparency can generically be improved upon this implies that full transparency is generically suboptimal whenever the dimension of the information held by the principal exceeds the dimension of the agent s action in a simple class of problems i make further progress on the best disclosure policy assuming the principal can either disclose fully the state or remain silent

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

efficient allocations in dynamic private information economies with persistent shocks a first order approach this article studies efficient allocations in a dynamic private information economy with a continuum of idiosyncratic shocks that are persistent i develop a first order approach for this environment and show that the problem has a simple recursive structure that relies on only a small number of state variables making the problem tractable i find sufficient conditions that guarantee that the first order approach is valid to illustrate the first order approach i numerically compute the efficient allocations in a mirrleesean economy with productivity shocks that follow a random walk and verify the validity of the first order approach i show that persistent shocks create a new trade off where the social planner decreases the informational rent of the agent today at the cost of providing higher insurance in the future copyright 2013 oxford university press

auctions and information acquisition sealed bid or dynamic formats the value of an asset is generally not known a priori and it requires costly investments to be discovered in such contexts with endogenous information acquisition which selling procedure generates more revenues we show that dynamic formats such as ascending price or multistage auctions perform better than their static counterpart this is because dynamic formats allow bidders to observe the number of competitors left throughout the selling procedure thus even if competition appears strong ex ante it may turn out to be weak along the dynamic format thereby making the option to acquire information valuable this very possibility also induces the bidders to stay longer in the auction just to learn about the state of competition both effects boost revenues and our analysis provides a rationale for using dynamic formats rather than sealed bid ones

awarding monopoly franchises the authors analyze how to award a monopoly franchise when the objective is to maximize expected consumers surplus net of transfer payments to the producer potential producers initially possess independent private information about uncertain production costs only the chosen producer subsequently observes realized production costs after awarding the franchise to the producer with the lowest expected costs prices are optimally set above realized marginal cost these ex post distortions foster more competitive bidding ex ante the distortions for any bid cost pair are invariant to the number of bidders n though expected distortions and profits decline with n copyright 1987 by american economic association

inflation forecast targeting implementing and monitoring inflation targets abstract inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting the central bank s inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy the weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target money growth or exchange rate targeting is generally inferior than inflation targeting and leads to higher inflation variability commitment to target rules may be better than commitment to instrument rules

electricity consumption and economic growth in burkina faso a cointegration analysis abstract this study empirically establishes the direction of causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in burkina faso for the period 1968 2003 the bounds test yields evidence of cointegration between electricity consumption gdp and capital formation when electricity consumption and gdp are used as dependent variable causality results indicate that there is no significant causal relationship between electricity consumption and investment estimates however detect in the long run a bidirectional causal relationship between electricity use and real gdp there is also evidence of a positive feedback causal relationship between gdp and capital formation burkina faso is therefore an energy dependent country it is also a country in which electricity consumption is growing with the level of income all of this shows that electricity is a significant factor in socio economic development in burkina faso as such energy policy must be implemented to ensure that electricity generates fewer potential negative impacts

discriminatory information disclosure we consider a price discrimination problem in which a seller has a single object for sale to a potential buyer at the time of contracting the buyer s private type is his incomplete private information about his value and the seller can disclose additional private information to the buyer we study the question of whether discriminatory information disclosure can be protable to the seller under the assumption that for the same disclosure policy the amount of additional private information that the buyer can learn depends on his private type we establish sucient conditions under which it is prot maximizing for the seller to grant each private type of the buyer full access to all additional private information under her control in general however discriminatory disclosure can be optimal because it reduces the information rent accrued to private types of the buyer without much impact on the trade surplus

monopoly with incomplete information recent theoretical research on principal agent relationships has emphasized incentive problems that arise when the parties involved are constrained by either asymmetric information or their inability to monitor each other s actions here we concentrate on the former constraint and consider the case of a single principal the monopolist the main contribution is to show that under a separability assumption strong conclusions can be drawn about the nature of optimal incentive schemes although the primary focus is on optimal quantity discounts in a monopolized market the results also shed light on related topics such as optimal income taxation and commodity bundling

do environmental benefits matter evidence from a choice experiment among house owners in germany residential buildings strongly contribute to global co2 emissions due to the high energy demand for electricity and heating particularly in industrialised countries within the eu decentralised heat generation is of particular relevance for future climate policy as its emissions are not covered by the eu ets we conducted a choice experiment concerning energy retrofits for existing houses in germany in the experiment the approximately 400 sampled house owners could either choose a modern heating system or an improved thermal insulation for their home we used standard and mixed logit specifications to analyse the choice data we found environmental benefits to have a significant impact on choices of heating systems however they played no role in terms of insulation choices based on the estimated mixed logit model we further obtained willingness to pay wtp measures for co2 savings

using contingent valuation to explore willingness to pay for renewable energy a comparison of collective and voluntary payment vehicles abstract this study uses a split sample dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey of 1574 u s residents to explore willingness to pay wtp for renewable energy under collective and voluntary payment vehicles and under government and private provision of the good we also evaluate the impact of participation expectations on stated wtp we find some evidence that when confronted with a collective payment mechanism respondents state a somewhat higher wtp than when voluntary payment mechanisms are used similarly private provision of the good elicits a somewhat higher wtp than does government provision we also find that contingent valuation responses are strongly correlated with expectations for the wtp of others our results shed light on strategic response behavior and the incentive compatibility of different cv designs and offer practical insight into u s household preferences for how to support renewable energy

equity trading by institutional investors evidence on order submission strategies abstract the trading volume channeled through off market crossing networks is growing passive matching of orders outside the primary market lowers several components of execution costs compared to regular trading on the other hand the risk of non execution imposes opportunity costs and the inherent free riding on the price discovery process raises concerns that this eventually will lead to lower liquidity in the primary market using a detailed data set from a large investor in the us equity markets we find evidence that competition from crossing networks is concentrated in the most liquid stocks in a sample of the largest companies in the us simulations of alternative trading strategies indicate that the investor s strategy of initially trying to cross all stocks was cost effective in spite of their high liquidity the crossed stocks would have been unlikely to achieve at lower execution costs in the open market

not irrational but habitual the importance of behavioural lock in in energy consumption abstract a substantial body of literature has shown that our behaviour is often guided by habits the existence of habits not fully conscious forms of behaviour is important as it contradicts rational choice theory their presence thus calls for the setting of new instruments as they make it unlikely that consumers be capable of exercising control over their energy consumption in reaction to given incentives this is further increased in the evolutionary perspective where the current carbon based socio technical system constrains and shapes consumers choices through structural forces habits being potentially counterintentional they may explain the efficiency paradox in energy as well as the continued increase of energy consumption despite the rising environmental awareness among the population policies aiming at reducing energy consumption should thus specifically address the performance context of habits for instance targeting new residents has proven to be more effective given that their preceding habits have been disturbed the results of our empirical analysis confirm this idea by showing how a change of context makes people more receptive to a proposed measure our analysis of the role played by habits also suggests that individuals do not consider the need to change existing habits as an obstacle even though this is contradicted implicitly in the answers they provided to open questions this unconsciousness is one of the most delicate features of habits and it should thus be accounted for when designing measures given the other characteristics of habits the joint use of feedbacks and commitment strategies appears promising

technical note optimal long term supply contracts with asymmetric demand information we consider a manufacturer selling to a retailer with private demand information arising dynamically over an infinite time horizon under a backlogging model we show that the manufacturer s optimal dynamic long term contract takes a simple form in the first period based on her private demand forecast the retailer selects a wholesale price and pays an associated upfront fee and from then on the two parties stick to a simple wholesale price contract with the retailer s chosen price under a lost sales model we show that the structure of the optimal long term contract combines a menu of wholesale pricing contracts with an option that if exercised by the retailer reduces future wholesale prices in exchange for an immediate payment to the manufacturer the online appendix is available at https doi org 10 1287 opre 2017 1626

total cost procurement auctions impact of suppliers cost adjustments on auction format choice we consider sealed and open bid total cost procurement auctions where two attributes are used for contract award decisions price which is bid by the supplier and a fixed cost adjustment which is included by the buyer to capture nonprice factors such as logistics costs suppliers know only their own true production cost and their own cost adjustment and the buyer does not know the suppliers true production costs but does know all suppliers cost adjustments which she herself sets in order to make an informed total cost decision the buyer who seeks to minimize her total price and cost adjustment procurement cost can choose to run a first price sealed bid auction where suppliers bids are affected by their beliefs about each other s total costs or a descending open bid auction where only the actual realizations of suppliers total costs drive the auction outcome we characterize the buyer s choice between the two formats as a threshold decision over suppliers cost adjustments and analyze the effect of supplier beliefs on her decision we also study the impact of additional suppliers on the buyer s decision the effect of correlation between suppliers production costs and their cost adjustments and additive as well as multiplicative total cost functions the results suggest that procurement managers can use their evaluations of suppliers cost adjustments to make better auction format decisions

identifying sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the uk abstract using quarterly data for the period 1985 1 2011 1 this paper uses a stylised open economy structural var model to identify the types of shocks responsible for macroeconomic fluctuations in the uk economy the stylised model implies a set of short run restrictions that allow for the identification of the shocks the importance of each shock is determined by examining forecast error variance decompositions impulse response functions and implied long run or permanent effects the results presented here imply that two shocks called the technology and is shocks are relatively more important than other shocks monetary shocks do exhibit long run monetary neutrality but clearly monetary policy is not responsible for a meaningful share of output and employment fluctuations during the sample period the estimated var and structural disturbances imply that the model accurately reflects the uk economy there is little evidence of a price puzzle or an exchange rate puzzle evidence against uncovered interest rate parity in response to an unexpected monetary policy tightening

monetary policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in a small open economy like norway are analysed through structural vars with special emphasis on the interdependence between monetary policy and exchange rate movements by imposing a long run neutrality restriction on the real exchange rate thereby allowing the interest rate and the exchange rate to react simultaneously to news i find considerable interdependence between monetary policy and the exchange rate in particular following a contractionary monetary policy shock the real exchange rate immediately appreciates after which it gradually depreciates back to the baseline the results are found to be consistent with findings from an event study

the design and price of information abstract a data buyer faces a decision problem under uncertainty he can augment his initial private information with supplemental data from a data seller his willingness to pay for supplemental data is determined by the quality of his initial private information the data seller optimally offers a menu of statistical experiments we establish the properties that any revenue maximizing menu of experiments must satisfy every experiment is a non dispersed stochastic matrix and every menu contains a fully informative experiment in the cases of binary states and actions or binary types we provide an explicit construction of the optimal menu of experiments jel d42 d81 d82 d83

do exchange rate shocks have asymmetric effects on reserve accumulation evidence from emerging markets it is generally argued that central banks in emerging market countries motivated by a desire to defend export competitiveness tend to intervene in foreign exchange markets to limit currency appreciations rather than depreciations using panel data from 13 emerging market countries for the period 1998 m1 to 2016 m12 we find that exchange rate shocks play an important role in determining the accumulation of international reserves moreover we find evidence that central banks in emerging markets tend to follow a leaning against the depreciation wind policy rather than the appreciation wind i e we provide evidence of a fear of depreciation

how well does the is lm model fit postwar u s data postwar u s time series for money interest rates prices and gnp are characterized by a multivariate process driven by four exogenous disturbances those disturbances are identified so that they can be interpreted as the four main sources of fluctuations found in the is lm phillips curve model money supply money demand is and aggregate supply shocks the dynamic properties of the estimated model are analyzed and shown to match most of the stylized predictions of the model the estimated decomposition is also used to measure the relative importance of each shock to interpret some macroeconomic episodes and to study sources of permanent shocks to nominal variables

auctions with limited commitment we study the role of limited commitment in a standard auction environment in each period the seller can commit to an auction with a reserve price but not to future reserve prices we characterize the set of equilibrium profits attainable for the seller as the period length vanishes an immediate sale by efficient auction is optimal when there are at least three buyers for many natural distributions two buyers is enough otherwise we give conditions under which the maximal profit is attained through continuously declining reserve prices

identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates abstract previous empirical study on the effects of monetary policy shocks in small open economies has generated puzzling dynamic responses in various macroeconomic variables this paper argues that these puzzles derive from an identification of monetary policy that is inappropriate for such economies to remedy this it is proposed that a structural model be estimated to explicitly account for the features of the small open economy such a model is applied to canada with tightly estimated results overall the dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the exchange rate as a transmission mechanism

optimal interest rate smoothing this paper considers the desirability of the observed tendency of central banks to adjust interest rates only gradually in response to changes in economic conditions it shows in the context of a simple model of optimizing private sector behaviour that assignment of an interest rate smoothing objective to the central bank may be desirable even when reduction of the magnitude of interest rate changes is not a social objective in itself this is because a response of policy to irrelevant lagged variables may be desirable owing to the way it steers private sector expectations of future policy

an alternative explanation of the price puzzle abstract this paper proposes an explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in vars designed for monetary policy analysis it assumes that the data are generated by a model in which output and output gap are not equivalent while an econometrician follows the common practice of including only output in the var the omission of the output gap is shown to spuriously produce a price puzzle and several other incorrect conclusions in a class of commonly used models this can happen even if the model admits a triangular identification and if the forecasts produced by the misspecified var are optimal when the model is tested on us data all predictions are supported a commodity price index is not needed to solve the puzzle

sustainable food consumption among young adults in belgium theory of planned behaviour and the role of confidence and values abstract this study investigates determinants of sustainable food consumer behaviour in belgium to gain a better insight in sustainable consumption a study was conducted in which attitudes and behaviour as well as the role of individual characteristics like confidence and values related to sustainable products are analyzed the focus of the analysis is on exploring the influence of determinants as hypothesised by the theory of planned behaviour tpb attitudes perceived behavioural control social norms on sustainable consumption intention in general and specifically depending on consumer s perceived confidence and personal values the empirical research builds on a survey with a sample of 456 young adults using a questionnaire and showing an advertisement for hypothetical sustainable dairy products stepwise multiple regression models showed that 50 of the variance in intention to consume sustainable dairy was explained by the combination of personal attitudes perceived social influences perceived consumer effectiveness and perceived availability in addition different levels of confidence and value orientation yield different strengths of the determinants the findings yield public policy and marketing recommendations for stimulating sustainable food consumption among young adults

informed seller with taste heterogeneity consider a seller with a single indivisible good facing a buyer whose willingness to pay depends on his privately known taste and on product characteristics privately known by the seller what selling procedure can arise as an equilibrium of the game in which the seller strategically chooses mechanisms conditional on his information we characterize the set of equilibrium outcomes and establish that ex ante revenue maximizing mechanisms are in this set there is generally a continuum of revenue ranked equilibrium outcomes focusing on the revenue maximizing equilibrium we show that the seller in general benefits from private information and does not benefit from committing to a disclosure or a certification technology we also provide conditions under which the privacy of the seller s information does not affect revenue

monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting dornbusch was right after all abstract dornbusch s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis is a central building block in international macroeconomics yet empirical studies of monetary policy have typically found exchange rate effects that are inconsistent with overshooting this puzzling result has been viewed by some researchers as a stylized fact to be reckoned with in policy modelling however many of these studies in particular those using vector autoregressive vars approaches have disregarded the strong contemporaneous interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate movements by placing zero restrictions on them in contrast we achieve identification by imposing a long run neutrality restriction on the real exchange rate thereby allowing for contemporaneous interaction between the interest rate and the exchange rate in a study of four open economies we find that the puzzles disappear in particular a contractionary monetary policy shock has a strong effect on the exchange rate which appreciates on impact the maximum effect occurs within 1 2 quarters and the exchange rate thereafter gradually depreciates to baseline consistent with the dornbusch overshooting hypothesis and with few exceptions consistent with uncovered interest parity uip

willingness to pay for energy saving measures in residential buildings this paper uses a choice experiment to evaluate the consumers willingness to pay for energy saving measures in switzerland s residential buildings these measures include air renewal ventilation systems and insulation of windows and facades two groups of respondents consisting respectively of 163 apartment tenants and 142 house owners were asked to choose between their housing status quo and each one of the several hypothetical situations with different attributes and prices the estimation method is based on a fixed effects logit model the results suggest that the benefits of the energy saving attributes are significantly valued by the consumers these benefits include both individual energy savings and environmental benefits as well as comfort benefits namely thermal comfort air quality and noise protection

environmental regulation of households an empirical review of economic and psychological factors abstract the literature on sustainable consumption and environmental regulation of household behavior is dominated by conceptual and normative approaches as a result many suggestions lack a firm empirical basis to overcome this deficiency econometric studies in three areas of environmentally relevant activities of households are reviewed residential use of energy generation of solid waste and recycling and residential use of water next to price and income elasticities attention is devoted to individual socio economic features and psychological factors such as attitudes knowledge perceptions and values potential psychological determinants and related insights are further examined by discussing a range of representative and illustrative statistical psychological studies of environmental behavior one important general finding is that there are very few empirical studies that systematically combine socio economic and psychological determinants a range of insights for environmental policy is derived and research recommendations are offered

woodfuels livelihoods and policy interventions changing perspectives in the 1970s it appeared that fuelwood use was growing rapidly and this could have major adverse impacts on the resource and poor users by the mid 1980s revised assessments indicated that there was less of a problem than had been foreseen and much less of a need for forestry interventions to maintain supplies as a result many of the latter were sharply scaled back additional information and analysis that has become available since the 1980s support the view that there is no need for large scale interventions devoted just to provision of fuelwood however declining access to supplies or markets can raise significant problems in some areas and for particular categories of user growing urban demand for charcoal can also cause local problems in particular in africa the potentials for appropriate forms of intervention are discussed

revenue maximizing with return policy when buyers have uncertain valuations abstract this paper examines the optimal mechanism design problem when buyers have uncertain valuations this uncertainty can only be resolved after the actual transactions take place and upon incurring significant post purchase cost we focus on two different settings regarding how the seller values a returned object salvage value we first study the case where the salvage value is exogenously determined we find that the revenue maximizing mechanism is deterministic and separable we illustrate that the optimal revenue can be implemented by a mechanism with a no questions asked return policy in addition we show that linear return policies are suboptimal when the hazard rates of initial estimates are monotone we next examine the case where the salvage value is endogenously determined we demonstrate that separability no longer holds and the recall of buyers is necessary in the optimal mechanism

identifying vars based on high frequency futures data abstract using the prices of federal funds futures contracts we measure the impact of the surprise component of federal reserve policy decisions on the expected future trajectory of interest rates we show how this information can be used to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock in a standard var this alternative approach to identification is quite different and we argue more plausible than the conventional identifying restrictions we find that a usual recursive identification of the model is rejected as is any identification that insists on a monetary policy shock having an exactly zero effect on prices contemporaneously we nevertheless agree with the conclusion of much of the var literature that only a small fraction of the variance of output can be attributed to monetary policy shocks

insights into biofuel development in burkina faso potential and strategies for sustainable energy policies abstract in many african countries the upswing in oil prices is one factor that favours the adoption and implementation of a national biofuel policy this trend has a major impact on state budgets and domestic trade balances while also limiting the access of rural inhabitants to modern energy services contribution of biofuels in stabilizing the energy sector influences ongoing negotiations on the global dynamics of climate change the reduction in greenhouse gas ghg emissions and sustainable development the question of biofuels as an alternative energy thus depends on international national and local considerations biofuels represent opportunities e g energy independence and security new national income and employment sources as well as potential food security problems african policy makers therefore need to make the right choices to guide the development of biofuel production and use this article aims to support the development of a biofuel policy by reviewing the latest technical economic environmental and social knowledge so as to be able to evaluate the potential and limits of biofuels in burkina faso

valuing climate protection through willingness to pay for biomass ethanol abstract this study uses a multi part split sample contingent valuation method cvm and fair share fs survey to better understand the public s valuation of mitigating global climate change through its willingness to pay for biomass or cellulosic ethanol in addition to a basic cvm question a related scenario was developed that asked half of the survey respondents to state their fair share cost to lessen a potential food shortage in the next decade also through the expanded use of cellulosic ethanol three alternative biomass feedstocks were assessed farming residues forestry residues and paper mill wastes and municipal solid wastes overall a slightly larger proportion of respondents were wtp extra for cellulosic ethanol in the basic cvm scenario than in the fs scenario though no significant differences were found in the wtp for the different feedstocks bid curve lognormal regression results for the two models were similar supporting the idea that asking a fs rather than a conventional wtp question may be justifiable in some circumstances such as in cases of a national emergency

ignorance promotes competition an auction model with endogenous private valuations we study a situation in which an auctioneer wishes to sell an object toone of n risk neutral bidders with heterogeneous preferences theauctioneer does not know bidders preferences but has private informationabout the characteristics of the ob ject and must decide how muchinformation to reveal prior to the auction we show that the auctioneerhas incentives to release less information than would be efficient andthat the amount of information released increases with the level ofcompetition as measured by the number of bidders furthermore in aperfectly competitive market the auctioneer would provide the efficientlevel of information

a normalized value for information purchases consider agents who are heterogeneous in their preferences and wealth levels these agents may acquire information prior to choosing an investment that has a property of no arbitrage and each piece of information bears a corresponding cost we associate a numeric index to each information purchase information cost pair this index describes the normalized value of the information purchase it is the risk aversion level of the unique cara agent who is indifferent between accepting and rejecting the purchase and it is characterized by a duality principle that states that agents with a stronger preference for information should engage more often in information purchases no agent more risk averse than the index finds it profitable to acquire the information whereas all agents less risk averse than the index do given an empirically measured range of degrees of risk aversion in a competitive economy with no arbitrage investments our model therefore comes close to describing an inverse demand for information by predicting what pieces of information are acquired by agents and which ones are not among several desirable properties the normalized value formula induces a complete ranking of information structures that extends blackwell s classic ordering

are biofuels an efficient technology for generating sustainable development in oil dependent african nations a macroeconomic assessment of the opportunities and impacts in burkina faso this paper discusses the opportunity for substituting fossil fuels with biofuels in a sahelian country burkina faso bearing in mind the strong link between energy and development and given the country s heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels our study showed that the overall economy private and public companies and basic social services and the state budget could be seriously affected if no viable and local alternative is integrated into the national energy strategy in view of local potential it is recommended that adequate energy resources be sought in order to ensure sustainable socio economic development biofuel opportunities are discussed taking into account technical agronomic and land potentials in this country diversification of energy resources with biofuels would substantially reduce fuel imports in the short term improve overall public finances provide a chance to develop agriculture and provide benefits for the locals however if they are to generate development biofuel projects need to be mindful of food security and economic incentives and should be part of national agricultural strategies

analysing decision behaviour in stated preference surveys a consumer psychological approach this paper applies a typology adapted from the consumer psychology literature to a contingent valuation method cvm survey we argue that the typology is helpful as a way of identifying responses that contain useful information on preferences for the environmental good in question relative to those which are unlikely to contain such information applying this framework to a cvm study of agri environmental payments in germany we find that some 90 of responses are preference revealing this distribution changes when the framing of the good is changed the typology may be of most use during the design stage of future cvm studies since it enables researchers to increase the fraction of responses that are useful

do measures of monetary policy in a var make sense no in many vector autoregressions vars monetary policy shocks are identified with the least squares residuals from a regression of the federal funds rate on an assortment of variables such regressions appear to be structurally fragile and are at odds with other evidence on the nature of the u s federal reserve s reaction function furthermore the residuals from these regressions show little correlation across various vars or with funds rate shocks that are derived from forward looking financial markets my results provide a sharp critique of current monetary vars

full extraction of the surplus in bayesian and dominant strategy auctions we consider auctions for a single indivisible object in the case where the bidders have information about each other which is not available to the seller we show that the seller can use this information to his own benefit and we completely characterize the environ ments in which a well chosen auction gives him the same expected payoff as that obtainable were he able to sell the object with full information about each bidder s willingness to pay we provide this characterization for auctions in which the bidders have dominant strate gies and for those where the relevant equilibrium concept is bayesian nash in both set ups the existence of these auctions hinges on the possibility of constructing lotteries with the correct properties we consider the situation in which an agent the seller possesses one indivisible unit of a good to which he attaches no value but the good has value to a number of potential buyers and its transfer to one of them would increase social welfare in particular the transfer to the buyer with the highest valuation maximizes social welfare in this paper we completely characterize environments in which the seller can design an auction that will enable him to capture for himself the full increase in social welfare induced by the transfer of the good to the bidder with the highest willingness to pay if the seller had full information about the reservation prices of potential buyers his optimal selling strategy would be very simple he would announce a price equal or very close to the highest reservation value the optimal strategy for the bidder with the highest evaluation would be to accept the offer note that we are treating a situation in which the seller can commit himself to a price as a result of the exchange the utility of the seller increases by the full amount of the increase in social welfare and he has been able to fully extract the surplus in many circumstances however a seller has only imperfect knowledge of the buyers willingnesses to pay in this case he must find some mechanism or auction which will enable him to maximize his benefit from the sale of the object the auction literature starts with this observation and shows how the seller can by an astute choice of auction extract the largest possible fraction of the surplus in general the literature has shown that this proportion is strictly less than one in some circumstances the bidders will have information about each other which is not available to the seller for instance in auctions for petroleum drilling rights bidders know the results of geological tests which they have

assessing the potential demand for biofuel by combining economics and psychology a focus on proximity applied to jatropha oil in africa abstract bio energy demand is known to be influenced by geographical origin and social equity this paper aims to highlight the influence of the proximity between biomass production and energy consumption on the demand for alternative bio fuels in the context of burkina faso we explore potential demand for jatropha oil jatropha curcas as a diesel substitute among engine owners survey data are based on a between groups design one group of respondents experiencing a local supply chain while the other a global one results show that proximity has a significant effect on potential demand itself and on the formation and strength of beliefs regarding jatropha oil in a local supply chain context the demand is superior and seems to be guided more by a certain economic and technical rationality conversely the prospect of a jatropha oil produced outside the village restrains demand and this latter is more determined by contextual factors and social interaction our analysis confirms that demand does not only depend on technical and economic factors such as price but also on the integration of the biomass production and processing in the socioeconomic life of local rural populations understanding demand construction and assessing underlying beliefs are key success factors for bio energy projects

simple monetary policymaking without the output gap several research contributions have argued that information about the output gap is essential for a good monetary policy rule however as pointed out by orphanides 2001 there is considerable real time uncertainty about the size of the output gap the paper argues that simple monetary policy rules that rely exclusively on survey based information about future and past inflation rates may be more efficient than optimized taylor rules once realtime output gap uncertainty is accounted for even when only information about historical inflation rates is available a very simple policy rule may be constructed that improves on the taylor rule