cross country variation in the liquidity effect the role of financial markets this paper examines cross country variation in the liquidity effect the negative response of interest rates to money supply shocks focusing on the role of financial factors in explaining this variation we estimate the liquidity effect for each of 21 countries using var models in which money supply shocks are restricted to be neutral in the long run then regress the estimated liquidity effect on financial market variables across countries we find that financial factors play an important role in determining the magnitude of the liquidity effect and that this evidence is most consistent with generalised versions of limited participation models

can the risk shifting employment model explain fluctuating employment it is shown by numerical examples that for the simple two states of the world version of azariadis original model of implicit labour contracts enormous fluctuations in output price are required to generate layoffs the paper then modifies the simple model replacing the perfectly competitive product market specification with a sales constraint this modification makes a significant difference the combination of sales constraints and risk shifting is shown to have the potential to explain layoffs since this sales constraint is unmotivated by micro analysis its inclusion does not satisfy the original aim of the risk shifting employment model to explain layoffs as based on micro foundations a secondary aim of the paper is to make the workings of the risk shifting employment model easier to understand by introducing a new diagrammatic analysis based on a contract curve

implicit contracts moral hazard and unemployment this paper considers a firm whose marginal revenue product of labor is a random variable we derive the form of an optimal long term contract between workers and the firm under the assumption that labor s marginal product is observed by the firm but not by the workers we show that the existence of asymmetric information causes unemployment to be greater than in a situation where information about labor s marginal product is public or where employment is determined in spot markets in particular unemployment can occur when the marginal product of labor exceeds the reservation wage

inflation and social consensus in the seventies it is widely believed that the two oil price shocks of the i 970s played a major role in the increase in inflation in industrial countries while this hypothesis is consistent with the timing of changes in inflation at the global level it seems to break down when applied to individual countries cross sectionally for example over the period i973 9 switzerland had an average inflation rate of 4 7 while in neighbouring italy inflation averaged i5 6 over the same period furthermore inflation in the pre opec period i97i 2 was actually higher in switzerland than in italy it seems that a supply shock explanation of inflation in the seventies also requires an explanation of why different countries responded so differently to a similar set of shocks at the world level the purpose of this paper is to offer such an explanation and to test the hypothesis with a cross sectional equation accounting for differences in average inflation rates over the period i973 9 in eighteen oecd countries this time period includes the year of the first opec shock i 973 and the following six years up to the time of the second opec shock the hypothesis to be tested is set in the framework of a model similar to that of brunner et al i 980 the key features of the brunner model are that the adjustment of real wage expectations is subject to lags and that labour supply is positively related to the difference between the perceived real wage and the expected or target real wage given these two assumptions a negative supply shock gives rise to a period of stagflation whose intensity will be greater the slower is the speed of adjustment of real wage expectations the model of this paper extends the brunner model in three ways first across countries the speed of adjustment of real wage expectations or targets is assumed to depend positively on the degree of social consensus as proxied negatively by an indicator of average long run strike activity second the model allows for the possibility of inflation inertia or systematically incorrect inflation expectations as well as a sluggish adjustment of real wage expectations third the model incorporates the hypothesis that money supply growth will vary across countries according to variations in inflationary pressures as perceived by governments the first section of the paper provides a discussion of the rationale for the key proposition regarding strikes and social consensus as well as a brief discussion of the role of wage bargaining institutions section ii develops a theoretical model which yields a reduced form cross sectional equation relating the average i 973 9

is increased nominal flexibility stabilizing some international evidence this paper studies the impact of the increased rigidity on macroeconomic fluctuations the author uses this evidence to test the validity of two major keynesian explanations the first is the conventional sticky wage sticky price explanation that suggests that the increased nominal rigidity ceteris paribus is destabilizing the second is a recently developed explanation that suggests that the increased flexibility is destabilizing the author s results are consistent with the conventional implications copyright 1991 by the london school of economics and political science

central bank independence disinflations and the sacrifice ratio it is widely believed that independent central banks produce costless low inflation yet a few recent studies indicate that more independent central banks are associated with higher output costs during disinflations this carries the implication that there are indeed costs associated with autonomy the author develops and extends those analyses in two important ways first he shows that central bank independence cbi affects both the output and the unemployment costs of disinflation because central banks control only monetary policy they should not exert a differential effect on the two ratios and there should be a positive relationship between independence and both the unemployment and the output costs of disinflations second by including a range of potentially significant political and institutional controls the author demonstrates both the importance of political and institutional determinants of the costs of disinflation and that cbi is a robust predictor of those costs

fixed and flexible wages evidence from panel data using data for the years 1968 84 from the michigan panel study of income dynamics this study analyzes differential flexibility in nominal wages by tenure and occupation the results show that short run sensitivity to both unemployment and inflation is confined largely to low tenure workers and that the cyclical upgrading and downgrading of employment opportunities makes a significant contribution to flexibility in nominal wages the findings are consistent with a model in which long term commitments insulate the wages of senior workers from short run swings in economic conditions and in which nominal wages are largely noncyclical but employment opportunities shrink and expand

firm specific human capital job matching and turnover evidence from major league baseball 1900 1992 the two dominant labor market turnover hypotheses the firm specific human capital model fshcm and the job matching model suggest different patterns of player mobility in major league baseball the matching hypothesis predicts greater mobility of players in positions that require substantial team production a better match may offer large productivity gains alternately the fshcm predicts players in positions requiring the greatest amount of teamwork will benefit from specific knowledge making them less likely to change teams we examine the frequency distribution of trades by player position from 1900 1992 and find the fshcm provides the best explanation for turnover in this industry

the macroeconomic implications of profit sharing some empirical evidence the macroeconomic implications of profit sharing some empiricals paper attempts an empirical assessment of weitzman s proposition that profit sharing provides an antidote to stagflation taking japan as an example of a profit sharing economy the author shows that it does not have either lower cyclical variability of output or lower inflation than other industrial countries the authors then reject the propositions that in a profit sharing economy 1 aggregate demand shocks have a smaller effect on output deviations and 2 import price shocks and wage push have a smaller effect on inflation therefore one should be wary of the claim that the japanese case supports weitzman s model copyright 1987 by royal economic society

profitability and profit sharing claims that profit sharing is a purely distributive wealth confiscation scheme without incentive effects due to free rider problems are based on neglect of cooperation and interaction in the workforce when these activities are difficult to monitor directly group incentives such as profit sharing can increase efficiency and maintain a superior nashequilibrium with strictly individual optimization with simultaneous wls tobit estimates we find here strong effects of profit sharing and worker ownership shares on residual owners return on capital in medium sized metal working firms in west germany complementing earlier results on productivity

tests of production smoothing in selected japanese industries abstract using monthly physical quantity data on production sales and inventories for 29 selected japanese industries it is found that the usual variance decompositions are generally consistent with the production smoothing model at both seasonal and nonseasonal frequencies however the estimated seasonal coefficients in production and sales are highly correlated which should not be the case if firms smooth production in the face of anticipated seasonal movements in sales a further test of the model which implies production should follow a random walk with drift provides mixed results but particularly negative results at the seasonal frequencies

enterprise unionism the japanese system at work trade unions japanese unions at work the japanese labour market has worked quite well over recent decades whereas the european economies have produced more and more unemployment a popular hypothesis is that this difference can be attributed to unions while in europe unions are strong and centralized and do not care about the individual firm the japanese unions are enterprise unions which deal directly with and understand the heal management employers in japan in turn consult unions and employees on all relevant management decisions this corporatism finally ensures that workers are more motivated and have a higher productivity it is the central conjecture of this paper that the presence of unions increases the voice of the employees significantly by using innovative new firm data it is shown that this is actually the case hence japanese enterprise unions are not harmful but foster information sharing and contribute to the performance of the enterprise toshiaki tachibanaki and tomohiko noda

why u s wage and employment behavior differs from that in britain and japan if a poll were to be conducted among american academic economists to select the most mystifying economic phenomenon of our time surely the sticky nominal wage rate would emerge at or near the top of the list the slow and partial response of the nominal wage rate to changes in aggregate nominal spending has been a central postulate of macroeconomic theory for the past 45 years from keynes general theory down to the standard postwar textbook keynesian paradigm to the more modern fixed wage price models of robert barro and herschel grossman i976 and edmond malinvaud i977 unwilling passively to accept nominal wage rigidity as an unexplained assumption many labour market theorists have followed the lead of costas azariadis i975 and martin baily i974 in building models to explain rigid wages and layoff unemployment as the rational outcome of a profit maximising calculus as i pointed out in an early critique of the azariadis baily model i976a their assumptions cannot explain cycles in employment but rather why workers would want fixed incomes i e a fixed wage rate and fixed employment soon thereafter barro i977 went one step further and argued that contract theory is a facade which cannot explain why workers would choose a rigid wage and variable employment in preference to the classical equilibrium quantity of employment that equates the marginal product of labour with the marginal value of time now an examination of the evidence has led me to the realisation that rigid wages cannot provide the underpinnings for a universally valid theory of the business cycle simply because wages are not universally rigid i document below with postwar quarterly data that the share of fluctuations in the manufacturing wage bill taking the form of nominal wage changes as compared to changes in hours worked is five to ten times greater in britain and japan than in

economic and monetary union in europe the european council s maastricht agreement maps out a precise route to monetary union and the eventual introduction of a common currency my discussion begins with a look at the general arguments for and against monetary union i shall then discuss the proposed constitution of the european central bank and whether it is likely to be conducive to monetary stability together with some of the problems posed by the transition to the new regime finally i will turn to the issue of rules for the conduct of fiscal policy and the question of fiscal federalism

coordination versus flexibility in wage formation a focus on the nominal wage impact of productivity in germany greece ireland portugal spain and the united states wage coordination between countries of the european monetary union emu aims at aligning nominal wage growth with labour productivity growth at the national level we analyse the developments in germany the emu s periphery countries greece ireland portugal and spain along with the united states over the period 1980 to 2010 apart from the contribution of productivity to nominal wages we take into account the contributions of prices unemployment replacement rates and taxes by means of an econometrically estimated nonlinear equation resulting from a wage bargaining model we further study the downward rigidities of nominal wages the findings show that in past times of low productivity price inflation and reductions in unemployment still put significant upward pressure on nominal wage growth the periphery countries are far from aligning nominal wage growth with productivity growth german productivity is a major wage determinant but surely not the only one within the context of a free bargaining

limited liability and the modern corporation in theory and in practice the catastrophic consequences of a lack of public control over the operations of large private corporations have been thrown into sharp relief by two major events in the recent past the global financial crisis and the deepwater horizon oil spill in the gulf of mexico while these events obviously differ in scope and nature they nevertheless turn the spotlight on a fundamental problem of contemporary capitalism an economic system that facilitates the privatisation of gains in the hands of ever smaller elites while also socialising risk losses in an anarchic manner to the detriment of the many is not politically viable in the long run this is the case in particular if a core element of this system s legitimacy is its claim to promote democracy at home and around the world based on principles of transparency and accountability both the global financial crisis and the deepwater horizon oil spill have already attained the status of watershed events mainly because the social economic and environmental risks inflicted by private actors on very large groups of people were extraordinary and the causes of failure to manage these risks were systemic rather than accidental at the heart of the systemic nature of these watershed failures lies the gradual evolution of the modern corporation into organisations with the power to re shape in their favour a changing and varied history of precarious balancing acts between public and private interests in advanced capitalist economies from its beginnings capitalism has been defined by the primacy of economic over political organisation most famously encapsulated in adam smith s metaphor of the invisible hand much later albert hirschman s insightful account of how the interests gradually came to outweigh the passions hirschman 1977 provides a detailed analysis of such early legitimisation patterns according to which the pursuit of individual freedom and economic selforganisation would be the driving force of political pacification and collective civilisation yet from the beginning such high expectations were curbed by warnings of potential conflicts between private and public interests if the former became too powerful thus adam smith himself pointed out that t o widen the market and to narrow the competition is always the interest of the dealers to widen the market may frequently be agreeable to the interest of the public but to narrow the competition must always be against it and can serve only to enable the dealers by raising their profits above what they naturally would be to levy for their own benefit an absurd tax on the rest

fiscal policy and the current account deficits and trade jose vinals does the balance of payments act as an external constraint on the design of domestic economic policy in practice most governments believe it does yet popular discussion is sometimes confused this paper begins by evaluating the nature of the external constraint and the extent to which it can adequately be measured by the current account of the balance of payments it is often argued that a fiscal expansion will increase employment it is also widely held that a fiscal expansion necessarily leads to a deterioration of the current account while these propositions may hold in specific circumstances neither is generally true the theoretical basis of the two propositions is examined and compared with recent international experience when important changes in fiscal stance occurred the popular presumptions are confirmed by recent experience in the us the uk and germany but france is a counterexample to the first and spain to the second the important policy implication is that one can identify both in theory and in practice clear circumstances in which expansionary fiscal policy is appropriate and will not be thwarted by external considerations

trends in unemployment wages and productivity the case of japan along with the high savings ratio the functioning of the labour market is one of the most important factors behind the macroeconomic performance of the postwar japan which foreign observers have christened the miracle of the rising sun in the first place the nature of the japanese labour market is important for the long run trend of japanese economic growth because labour and its quality are crucial factors for economic development the high quality of a well disciplined workforce as well as the migration of labour from rural to urban areas has contributed much to the rapid growth of the japanese economy second the nature of the labour market has influenced the pattern of japanese business cycles by buffering demand fluctuations the slow response of firms demand for labour combined with the fast response of the labour force participation ratio has prevented a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during recessions relatively flexible nominal and real wages have also enabled the japanese economy to adjust quite smoothly to supply shocks notably after the second oil crisis in this paper we shall review trends in unemployment wages and productivity in the postwar japanese economy and relate them to its macroeconomic performance we shall also summarize the current literature concerning features of the labour market evaluate quantitative estimates of trends in labour statistics and explore future prospects

sticky prices as coordination failure this paper links the coordination failure and menu cost approaches to the microeconomic foundations of keynesian macroeconomics if a firm s desired price is increasing in others prices then the gain from price adjustment after a nominal shock is greater if others adjust this strategic complementarity leads to multiple equilibria in the degree of rigidity welfare may be much higher in the equilibria with less rigidity thus nominal rigidity arises from a failure to coordinate price changes jel e12 e30 keynesian macroeconomics waned in the 1970 s because economists grew disenchanted with its weak microeconomic foundations the central difficulty was that keynesian models were based on ad hoc rigidities in nominal wages and prices the 1980 s produced two approaches to reviving keynesian theory the menu cost literature n gregory mankiw 1985 george akerlof and janet yellen 1985 seeks to provide rigorous explanations for nominal rigidities these papers argue that small frictions in price setting are enough to produce large nominal rigidities in contrast the coordination failure literature russell cooper and andrew john 1988 abandons nominal rigidities and seeks alternative foundations for keynesian models the central idea is that many economic activities such as production e g john bryant 1983 trade e g peter diamond 1982 and investment e g nobuhiro kiyotaki 1988 exhibit synergism or strategic complementarity one agent s optimal level of activity depends positively on others activity strategic complementarity can lead to multiple equilibria with high activity equilibria superior to low activity equilibria thus an economy may be stuck in an underemployment equilibrium even though a superior equilibrium exists models with nominal rigidities and models with coordination failures are often presented as competing paradigms 1 this paper shows that this view is incorrect we take a step toward unifying the foundations of keynesian economics by showing that the two sets of ideas are highly complementary nominal rigidity arises from a failure to coordinate price changes this failure has the essential features of coordination failures in previous models flexibility in one firm s price increases the incentives for other firms to make their prices flexible this strategic complementarity leads to multiple equilibria in the degree of nominal rigidity equilibria with less rigidity more active price adjustment are often pareto superior to equilibria with more rigidity these results contribute to our understanding both of coordination failure and of nominal rigidity the range of keynesian phenomena explained by coordination failures is greatly expanded previous coordination failure models contain only real variables and thus ascribe no role to monetary policy or other determinants of nominal spending our results suggest that coordination failure is at the root of inefficient nonneutralities of money theories of nominal rigidities gain new empirical and policy im

comment on robert m solow insiders and outsiders in wage determination solow s paper is concerned with explaining persistent unemployment in a fluctuating economy where labour is heterogeneous and employment decisions are linked through time this surely is an important problem it is also about time that we start thinking about the labour market as consisting not only of n identical clones but of individuals with different skills education and experience can the skilled or the experienced keep the unskilled from getting jobs and would it be in their interest to do so the latter question is easier to answer and the argument can be laid out in terms of a simple diagram fig 1

r d production structure and rates of return in the u s japanese and german manufacturing sectors a non separable dynamic factor demand model abstract the focus of this paper is an analysis of the production structure the demand for factor inputs and the rates of return in the manufacturing sector of three major industrialized countries the united states japan and germany the analysis is based on a dynamic factor demand model with two variable inputs labor and materials and two quasi fixed inputs capital and rd also for all countries the speed of adjustment for capital is found to be higher than that for r d

limited liability and multinational enterprises a case for reform in the context of corporate groups the legal principles of limited liability and corporate separation can lead to injustice in cases of harmto involuntary creditors by externalising risks that ought to be internalised by the enterprise as the better risk taker the avoidance of responsibility can be achieved by interposing a separate legal entity between the victims and the ultimate controller of the group be it a parent company or its controlling shareholders the resulting lack of legal responsibility could be remedied in a number of ways ranging from adaptations of existing exceptions to the doctrine of limited liability to outright abolition of limited liability preference is given to a statutory principle of enterprise liability for the controlling entity the implications of these doctrines are also discussed in relation to the choice of jurisdiction in which to bring a legal action

unemployment in britain male unemployment in britain has risen from around 2 per cent in the 1950s to around 17 per cent in 1985 see figure 1 the figures are for male unemployment because there is no consistent series for women 1 even more remarkably unemployment has fallen in only three years out of the last twenty 1973 1978 and 1979 to account for this we need a model that explains both changes in the natural or non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu and deviations from it we use a three equation supply side model centred on the labour market this has two main features the first concerns the determination of employment in the short run the labour demand function that we use cuts through the fruitless debate now raging especially in europe as to whether current unemployment is classical or keynesian according to the classical view employment is too high because real wages are too high according to the keynesian view real wages are not binding and unemployment is high because the product market does not clear with prices too high relative to nominal demand the whole debate is set in the framework of perfect competition yet in perfect competition prices are set by impersonal forces and it is not clear what could possibly stop prices clearing the market it is much more reasonable to think of prices as being set by imperfectly competitive firms existing prices being the best they can think of given the demand they face in this context firms demand for labour will depend on both the real product wage and the level of real aggregate demand this is the demand function we estimate and it conforms both to common sense and to the data however this does not imply that employment can be made to grow without limit by pumping up real demand for in the medium term when price surprises are eliminated our model determines three variables employment real wages and real demand on the basis of three equations an employment equation a price equation and a wage equation thus in the medium term there is a natural level of employment and corresponding to this a natural level of real aggregate demand the second key feature of our model concerns the medium term determination of unemployment in the medium term the planned mark up of wages over prices in wage settlements must be consistent with the mark up of prices over wage costs in employers pricing behaviour for if wage setters try to set real product wages higher than is consistent with employers pricing behaviour this generates ever increasing inflation thus the key to understanding unemployment in the medium term is the behaviour of wage setters if events occur that push them towards too high real wages then unemployment has to rise to offset these influences we shall call these influences wage pressure variables or push factors and they are clearly crucial in understanding unemployment the variables here include the social security system employment protection

wage contracts and the unit root hypothesis a model in which nominal wages are set by contracts that have cost of living objectives is likely to be consistent with the evidence of a unit root in the real gnp process of many countries values of the autoregressive root in the gnp process are calculated numerically for many countries using evidence available on the conduct of monetary policy and on the determination of inflation

the impact of controls on wage contract duration incomes policies invariably arouse considerable opposition it is claimed that they are costly to administer that by tinkering with relative prices they riddle the economy with inefficiencies and that they politicise economic life it is also argued that where controls do have an impact on wage rates and prices a point which is by no means universally conceded agents are driven to costly behaviour designed to neutralise effective wage and price ceilings e g wage drift and quality changes it is fair to say however that most of the empirical work on incomes policies has been directed rather narrowly at the question of whether controls affect wage rates earnings or prices somewhat off the beaten track has been the interesting paper by pencavel i982 in which he argued that the existence of costs in revising wage rates calls for a distinction between the frequency and magnitude of wage revisions pencavel i982 also argued that wage controls are sometimes directed toward postponing wage increases in which case they affect the frequency of wage change while at other times they specify permissible ceilings on wage increases designed to affect the magnitude of wage adjustments however even this paper deals with wage issues broadly defined there has been little work done on the impact of controls on other aspects of labour market behaviour the purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of canada s recent experiment with controls on wage contract duration this long neglected variable has received theoretical attention in a number of recent papers including fischer i977 who argued that in a world of overlapping contracts monetary policy is effective despite rational expectations gordon i982 who considered the implications of contracting arrangements for wage flexibility and gray i978 and canzoneri i980 who explored the impact of uncertainty on contract duration an empirical paper by christofides and wilton i983 b confirmed gray s i978 and canzoneri s i980 conclusion that inflation uncertainty reduces the length of wage contracts however no one appears to have examined carefully the impact of controls on this important

how natural is canada s high unemployment rate abstract a reduced form price equation for canada 1956 1984 yields a stable estimate of 4 9 percent for the natural unemployment rate of men aged 25 and over with strong evidence against hysteresis once structural influences are accounted for the resulting profile for the aggregate natural unemployment rate rises smoothly from 5 5 percent in 1961 to a maximum of 8 0 percent in 1977 1978 and then declines rapidly to 6 4 percent in 1985 calculations based on an estimated production structure for the aggregate non energy sector of canada provide additional evidence against the excess real wage hypothesis and for the view that the recent fluctuations in canada s unemployment rate are mostly of the keynesian variety

job duration seniority and earnings an important stylized fact about labor markets is that workers with longer seniority with their current employer have higher earnings than other workers with the same total labor market experience this study shows that workers in longer jobs earn more throughout than workers in a series of shorter jobs and that the measured positive cross sectional return seniority is largely a statistical artifact due to the correlation of seniority with an omitted variable representing the quality of the worker the job or the worker employer match the implication is tha t earnings do not in fact rise very much with seniority copyright 1987 by american economic association

hours layoffs and unemployment insurance funding theory and practice in an international perspective the strikingly different behaviour of important economic aggregates in the united states and other industrial countries has received surprisingly little attention from economists among recent exceptions however gordon i 982 has shown that wages and hours of work are much more flexible in the united kingdom and japan than in the united states such relative hours variability is confirmed in a macro analysis by capdevielle and alvarez i98i and at micro level by sengenberger and kohler i982 the latter authors are concerned with labour market adjustment within the u s and west german automobile industries between i 97 i and i 980 estimates of the german workeroutput elasticity are found to be less than half that of the united states while the german hours elasticity is twice the united states figure at the national aggregate level capdevielle and alvarez also reveal much greater employment variability in the united states than in most other oecd countries in the years following the i973 74 opec supply shock much in line with these employment hours observations moy and sorrentino i98i argue that after

granger causality real factor prices and employment a re appraisal with uk data this paper reports the results produced by applying tests for granger causality of post war u k real wage and employment data the results suggest that real wages granger cause employment with no feedback this result is robust to the inclusion of real materials prices the results are not robust to changes in the sample period real wages and employment appear independent with data up to 1977 4 the oscillations of real wages between 1976 and 1978 when a stern wage policy was implemented and dismantled are responsible for these different results this explains the contradictory results reported in previous studies

counterinflationary policy in a unionised economy with nonsynchronised wage setting a model of the determination of wages and employment in a unionised economy with nonsynchronised wage setting is presented in this paper it is shown that a monetary deflation can lead to prolonged unemployment even though the unions act rationally and with full information about the change in policy the model generates a statistical phillips curve in which the rate of change of money wages depends on the anticipated growth rate of the money supply and on disequilibrium unemployment conventional incomes policies are shown to have desirable social effects but run counter to the perceived self interest of the trade unions and are therefore likely to be resisted taxes on wage increases have desirable long run effects but do not appear able to reduce the transitional unemployment costs of monetary deflation

aggregate unemployment in italy 1960 1983 when compared with other countries experiences the italian performance on the unemployment front is interesting in many respects as indicated in table 1 the italian unemployment rate has been consistently above that of major western countries since the 1960s the differential in unemployment rates tended to decrease between the second half of the 1960s and the first half of the 1970s because the initial rise in unemployment following the oil shock was less pronounced in italy than in most other countries since that time the rise in unemployment has been pretty universal and steady but italian unemployment has risen somewhat faster than the average thus the differential with the oecd has grown from 1 percentage point to over 2 by the early 1980s though the eec as a whole has performed even worse in assessing these trends one should keep in mind that unemployment as well as many other italian statistics is subject to an unusual margin of error reflecting in part the large role played by the underground economy furthermore as for other countries the aggregate italian unemployment rate hides substantial differences in unemployment rates for different groups of people in society see section i below though extremely important such

aggregate pattern of time dependent adjustment rules i a game theoretic analysis of staggered versus synchronised wage setting this paper studies the benefits of staggered wage setting in reducing strategic conflicts it is shown that when wage setters interact strategically and dynamically they prefer moving alternatingly because by doing so they are able to commit temporarily not to offset the effects of each other s action it is also shown that synchronization represents a better arrangement when agents are able to coordinate these results are consistent with the presence of nonsynchronous and decentralized wage decisions in the united states and the united kingdom and the presence of synchronous bargaining in shunto and coordination in wage determination in japan copyright 1996 by royal economic society

limited liability shareholder rights and the problem of corporate irresponsibility there has long been a tendency to see the corporate legal form as presently constituted as economically determined as the more or less inevitable product of the demands of advanced technology and economic efficiency through an examination of its historical emergence focusing in particular on the introduction of general limited liability and the development of the modern doctrine of separate corporate personality this paper takes issue with this view arguing that the corporate legal form was and is in large part a political construct developed to accommodate and protect the rentier investor it is moreover a construct which institutionalises irresponsibility against this backdrop different ways of trying to resolve the problem of corporate irresponsibility are explored the key the paper suggests is to be found in decoupling the privilege of limited liability from rights of control

what shapes are overtime premium schedules some evidence from japan the uk and the us we provide estimates of the shapes of overtime premium schedules for three contrasting economies based on two digit industries through time at one end of the spectrum the united kingdom has no legislation concerning the minimum premium rate while at the other the united states mandates a high minimum premium of 1 5 times the straight time hourly rate in between these extremes japan sets a minimum premium of 1 25 we concentrate in particular on the question of whether the premium rises in average hours

profit sharing and its effect on income distribution and output a kaleckian approach this study investigates how profit sharing influences the economy by using a kaleckian model unlike existing research i endogenise the profit share the analysis shows that profit sharing decreases or increases the equilibrium capacity utilisation rate depending on whether the productivity enhancing effect of profit sharing is weak or strong moreover the presented numerical simulations show that the profit sharing effects on income distributions differ according to the relative strength of the productivity enhancing effect of profit sharing

do wages rise with job seniority many previous studies have found a strong positive effect of job seniority tenure on wages this paper re examines the evidence using a simple instrumental variables scheme to deal with the fact that tenure is likely to be related to unobserved individual and job characteristics that affect the wage we use the variation of tenure over a given job match as the principal instrumental variable for tenure the variation in tenure over the job is uncorrelated by construction with the fixed individual and job match specific components of the error term of the wage equation our main finding is that the partial effect of tenure on wages is small and that general labour market experience and job shopping account for most wage growth over a career the strong cross section relationship between tenure and wages is due primarily to heterogeneity bias prior researchers see mincer and jovanovic 1981 bartel and borjas 1981 borjas 1981 cline 1979 and mellow 1981 and many others have established that job seniority has a strong positive relationship with wage rates in a cross section or a cross section time series of individuals in this paper we re evaluate the evidence concerning the partial effects on wages of job seniority tenure and total labour market experience the extent to which wages rise with tenure is important for several reasons first and foremost the wage tenure profile is a fundamental question about the structure of earnings over careers second the wage tenure profile is a key determinant of the extent to which the earnings power of individuals is tied to specific jobs and it is important for assessment of the losses suffered by displaced workers hamermesh 1984 third evidence that wages rise with job tenure has been used to explain the decline in quits with tenure since the wage growth on the current job lowers the probability that the worker will locate a superior alternative a growing theoretical literature surveyed in parsons 1984 has taken the evidence of a strong wage tenure profile at face value and sought to provide an explanation for the relationship the most prominent explanation is the theory of specific human capital oi 1962 becker 1962 mincer 1974 parsons 1972 kuratani 1973 and hashimoto 1980 in which the growth of wages with tenure holding experience constant is attributed to the worker s share of investments in firm specific skills more recently lazear 1981 has presented a supervision model of wage growth in which firms defer compensation as a means of inducing workers not to shirk freeman 1977 and harris and holmstrom 1982 provide an explanation for wage growth based on an insurance motive salop and salop 1976 nickell 1976 and guasch and weiss 1982 present adverse selection models of wage growth in which firms use a wage tenure profile as a

causes of the current stagflation since 1975 labour slack has been unusually high in the oecd countries and yet inflation has not diminished the less favourable mix of unemployment and rate of change of inflation which we call stagflation is explained by a fall in the feasible rate of growth of real wages unmatched by a reduction in the constant term in phillips curve to investigate this mechanism conventional wage and price equations are estimated for 19 countries and then used for simulation stagflation has been caused in roughly equal amounts by rising relative import prices and by the fall in the rate of productivity growth in the basic model the phillips curve is assumed not to adapt to falls in feasible real wage growth but in a final section an adaptive wage equation is estimated which confirms that the process of adaptation is slow

international capital mobility and unemployment dynamics empirical evidence from oecd countries we use a panel of 20 oecd countries over a 30 year period to estimate the implications of international capital mobility for unemployment we nd that the increase in capital ows since the mid 1980s has contributed to an ampli cation of the impulse response of unemployment to country speci c shocks and to a fall in the persistence of unemployment in response to the same shocks

the root cause of economic growth under capitalism drawing on historical and other empirical evidence this paper provides a causal explanation of a central question why sustained per capita growth occurs in capitalist economies i e in what way capitalism differs from the market that gives it this property it describes an endogenous economic logic that is based on the institutional characteristics of capitalist firms in the non financial sector especially the flexibility of the inputs that they can call upon and of the size of the market that they can supply this perspective naturally generates a realistic theoretical account not only of the source of economic growth but also of the evolution of market structure the forces that produce divergence in for example profit rates a starting point for explaining price setting and a language for describing firms economic power it draws on previous traditions especially those based on the works of marx and schumpeter but differs from them in important respects copyright the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

theoretical foundations for sticky wages abstract the paper compares three different types of theoretical explanation of sticky wages they are implicit contracts efficiency wage models and insider outsider models it then reconsiders keynes rationale for sticky wages which focuses on relative wage issues finally the paper considers possible directions for future research

how strong is the macroeconomic case for downward real wage rigidity we explore the existence of downward real wage rigidity drwr at the industry level based on data from 19 oecd countries for the period 1973 1999 the results show that drwr compresses the distributions of industry wage changes overall as well as for specific geographical regions and time periods but there are not many real wage cuts that are prevented more important however drwr attenuates larger real wage cuts thus leading to higher real wages there is stronger evidence for downward nominal wage rigidity than for drwr real wage cuts are less prevalent in countries with strict employment protection legislation and high union density

sectoral wage rigidity in the canadian and french economies abstract this paper estimates the degree of wage flexibility in seven french major sectors and 16 canadian manufacturing industries in order to test the predictions of efficiency wage theory and to compare the degree of wage flexibility with the u s we estimate industry wage flexibility with disaggregated phillips curves and find that efficiency wage theory explains the inter industry pattern of wage flexibility in france and canada quite well using previous estimates from the u s we find that wages are usually more flexible in french and canadian industries than in the corresponding u s industry and that the industries with the most flexible wages in france and canada tend to have the most flexible wages in the u s

excess labour and the business cycle a comparative study of japan germany the united kingdom and the united states against the background of firm specific human capital theory this paper investigates empirically the relative propensity of manufacturing industries in japan germany the united kingdom and the united states to hold excess labour over the business cycle both stock and utilization dimensions of the labour input are integrated into the study throughout discussion is linked to earlier research that has analysed the relative international performance of the japanese labour market

the effect of job tenure on wage offers a wage offer can be either acceptable or unacceptable to a worker but in cross sectional and panel data only acceptable wage offers are observed an ols wage equation will not reveal how job tenure affects wage offers but rather will reveal how tenure affects acceptable wage offers by jointly modeling the firm s determination of the wage offer and the worker s decision to accept or reject the offer we are able to estimate the effect of job tenure on wage offers consistently in contrast to the usual ols results we find that job tenure has no statistically significant effect on wage offers

can productivity growth explain the nairu long run evidence from britain 1871 1999 this paper investigates the effect of productivity growth on the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu over the long run using historically consistent time series for the uk from 1871 to 1999 a two equation model of unemployment and wage setting that incorporates productivity effects is estimated over the whole period allowing for shifts associated with changes in labour market institutions the results indicate that faster productivity growth reduces the nairu but that this goes only part of the way towards explaining wide swings in average unemployment across the decades

wage rigidity and unemployment in oecd countries real wage rigidity is often blamed for causing unemployment in the wake of adverse real shocks like changes in productivity or the terms of trade likewise nominal wage rigidity is blamed for causing unemployment in the wake of adverse nominal shocks like falls in nominal demand 1 however there has been relatively little systematic discussion of how these concepts should be defined some authors e g sachs 1979 have defined real wage rigidity as the opposite of nominal wage rigidity with the us nominally rigid and europe really rigid 2 the rigidity of european real wages has then been used to explain why europe has experienced a greater increase in unemployment since 1973 than the us but in this discussion real wage rigidity has not been measured in a way which would in fact predict how much unemployment would result from a given real shock the discussion has focused on the degree of nominal inertia in the system but the unemployment cost of real shocks does not depend primarily on the degree of nominal inertia but rather on the effect of unemployment in the phillips curve

towards an explanation of the productivity slowdown an acceleration deceleration hypothesis after two and a half decades of prosperous post war development western industrialised countries recently experienced a slowdown of economic growth and productivity advance together with an increase in the rates of inflation and unemployment in trying to explain this malaise we are looking at a diagnosis that could help us to identify early indicators of a future turnaround or some policy variables which deserve to be included in a therapeutic programme although we shall focus on what can be measured complying with the standards of the guild we shall not refrain from considering complex relationships which can be grasped only intuitively even if they include phenomena which lie beyond the limits of official statistics 2 the outcome may be soft economics but we find some consolation in the dictum that it is better to be vaguely right than to be precisely wrong

intertemporal substitution and labor supply in japan this paper considers whether japanese labor market data are consistent with the intertemporal substitution hypothesis the japanese labor market data are first tested for broad conformity with the hypothesis using the methodology of ashenfelter and card 1982 the results from this analysis are encouraging next the hypothesis is tested using the methodology of altonji 1982 the results from this analysis are not generally favorable to the hypothesis finally an ad hoc test of whether the bonus should be considered a form of wage payment is nested in the test of the intertemporal substitution hypothesis with the result that the bonus does not appear to elicit the same labor supply behavior as the base wage

wage gaps factor shares and real wages the relationships which link real wages capital intensity and factor shares are tested as a prelude to tests of the relationship between wage rigidities and labour market institutions evidence from seven countries indicates that the evolution of factor shares is well explained by changes in capital intensity which is itself well explained by product wages and technical progress a key implication is that changes in full employment capital labour ratios have been the dominant reason for the longer run decline of profit shares in europe and japan relative to the united states it follows that changes in cyclically adjusted factor shares provide little or no information regarding the gap between the actual real wage and its full employment value

why do wages increase with tenure on the job training and life cycle wage growth observed within firms empirical results in this paper indicate that firm specific wage growth occurs almost exclusively during periods of on the job training this finding suggests that within firm wage growth is mainly determined by contemporaneous productivity growth the results provide no evidence that contractual considerations are an important source of firm specific wage growth copyright 1989 by american economic association

is delayed disinflation more costly an often stated piece of monetary policy wisdom is that postponing disinflation raises the ultimate cost of disinflation however there is little empirical work that directly tests the validity of this view this paper is a study of the relation between the duration of inflation and the cost of subsequent disinflation using 67 disinflation episodes in oecd countries from 1960 through 1993 the estimates indicate that delaying disinflation raises the output loss per unit of inflation reduction although the effect is not statistically significant in all models the largest marginal effects of delay occur soon after inflation is allowed to get under way a finding consistent with a rapid decline in the credibility of the inflating central bank

organizational adjustment and institutional factors in japanese labour market adjustment an empirical evaluation abstract this paper examines the importance of institutional factors in the mechanism of japanese labour market adjustment the commonly held view suggests that transfers of employees both between and within firms have enhanced flexibility while contributing to the maintenance of low unemployment rates the paper produces evidence in support of the importance of transfers as an adjustment device limited to a subset of large manufacturing enterprises however the direct macroeconomic contribution of these institutional factors is marginal and the common view may have overestimated their importance

what is new keynesian economics this research was supported by the national science foundation i am grateful to george williams for help with the data and to steven allen laurence ball olivier j blanchard timothy bresnahan charles calomiris dennis carlton robert chirinko russell cooper stanley fischer herschel grossman r glenn hubbard david laidler john leahy assar lindbeck n gregory mankiw david romer julio rotemberg dennis snower john taylor andrew weiss and two anonymous referees for comments on one or more earlier drafts i am also indebted to michael parkin and edmund s phelps for helping to establish the etymology of the phrase new keynesian

nominal budgeting as a stabilization rule the optimal degree of indexation of public spending abstract we analyze here a novel instrument of fiscal policy the degree of adjustment of public spending to price surprises this acts as an automatic stabilizer which fully substitutes for wage indexation partial reliance on nominal budgeting is usually optimal in contrast to the conventional assumption of pegged real government spending unlike what emerges in the wage indexation literature we show that the more pronounced is the relative importance of demand shocks the stronger is the case for lack of indexed public spending we find that a low degree of wage indexation may be the optimal response to government budgets not cast in real terms