settlement tax and non synchronous effects in the basis of u k stock index futures abstract the basis in stock index futures markets is analytically and empirically studied in this paper within a no arbitrage cost of carry framework explanatory power improved when the implications of the u k stock exchange settlement system were introduced into the modelling process and until recently with the maturity of the market evidence indicating the presence of non synchronicities between the cash and futures markets was found strong evidence for tax effects upon the basis was not found to be present in the data analysed statistically significant relationships between basis mispricing and volume and volatility were found

what type of process underlies options a simple robust test we develop a simple robust method to distinguish the presence of continuous and discontinuous components in the price of an asset underlying options our method examines the prices of at the money and out of the money options as the option s time to maturity approaches zero we show that these prices converge to zero at speeds that depend upon whether the underlying asset price process is purely continuous purely discontinuous or a combination of both we apply the method to s p 500 index options and nd the existence of both a continuous component and a jump component in the index to effectively price or hedge derivative securities or to understand the behavior of nancial asset prices in general it is important to know if they are best modeled using a purely continuous process pc a pure jump process pj or a combination of both cj we develop a method to distinguish between these possibilities using options written on the asset in question speci cally we examine the market prices of at the money atm and out of the money otm options as the option s maturity date approaches the valuation date while the prices of all atm and otm options converge to zero as the time to maturity approaches zero our theoretical work shows that the speed of convergence diiers across the three possibilities pc pj or cj we can thus identify the type of an asset price process by examining the convergence speeds of these option prices the simplest approach for determining the type of process governing an asset price is to examine the time series of asset prices directly however the discretely sampled paths from the three types of processes look very similar unless the sampling frequency is extremely high furthermore increasing the sampling frequency introduces market microstructure eiects since our method does not examine the sample path of the underlying asset directly it circumvents these di culties our method is able to distinguish the type of process governing the price of an asset because diierent types of processes have dramatically diierent implications

does the bush administration s climate policy mean climate protection abstract the paper analyzes the two major components of the bush administration s climate policy namely an emission intensity target and a technology strategy the question is whether those components will generate net emission reductions that will contribute to the stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentration at a safe level in the long run it comes out that the bush administration climate policy does not guarantee any meaningful contribution to climate protection the lenient emission intensity target set by the administration will most likely allow near term emissions to grow in the long run the bush administration places a big bet on future climate friendly technological breakthroughs to cost effectively compensate for the current and near term net emission increases but the outcomes of those technological developments are uncertain in terms of emission reduction potential cost and timing the way towards enhanced climate protection will most likely not come from the policies of the current administration but rather from the growing concern about the climate issue in congress and at the state corporate and civil society levels these combined forces may raise the playing field at the federal level in the near future

stochastic convenience yield and the pricing of oil contingent claims this paper develops and empirically tests a two factor model for pricing financial and real assets contingent on the price of oil the factors are the spot price of oil and the instantaneous convenience yield the parameters of the model are estimated using weekly oil futures contract prices from january 1984 to november 1988 and the model s performance is assessed out of sample by valuing futures contracts over the period november 1988 to may 1989 finally the model is applied to determine the present values of one barrel of oil deliverable in one to ten years time

the skew risk premium in the equity index market we develop a new method for measuring moment risk premiums we find that the skew premium accounts for over 40 of the slope in the implied volatility curve in the s p 500 market skew risk is tightly related to variance risk in the sense that strategies designed to capture the one and hedge out exposure to the other earn an insignificant risk premium this provides a new testable restriction for asset pricing models trying to capture in particular disaster risk premiums we base our results on a general trading strategy by replicating contracts that swap implied for realized conditional asset moments

the recovery theorem we can only estimate the distribution of stock returns but from option prices we observe the distribution of state prices state prices are the product of risk aversion the pricing kernel and the natural probability distribution the recovery theorem enables us to separate these to determine the market s forecast of returns and risk aversion from state prices alone among other things this allows us to recover the pricing kernel market risk premium and probability of a catastrophe and to construct model free tests of the efficient market hypothesis

what are the effects of different tax policies on china s coal fired power generation industry an empirical research from a network slacks based measure perspective abstract data envelopment analysis dea has been widely applied to evaluate performance in the power generation industry nevertheless most studies view the production system as a black box few studies attempt to deal with the case of china s thermal power generation industry in the framework of network dea separating the overall power generation process into two internal stages the production stage and the pollutant abatement stage with the pollutant emissions as intermediate products this paper employs a network slacks based measure sbm model to research the production efficiency and environmental efficiency of china s coal fired power generation industry from 2006 to 2010 under two different tax policies these two tax policies are the pollution tax policy to negatively penalize for emissions of pollutants and the tax deductions or exemptions policy to positively encourage environmental protection the empirical results show that the effect of compulsory measures was better than that of self motivation measures for china s environmental protection in this observation period another important finding is that the year 2008 was a turning point in the five years statistical analysis shows that the effects of the two different policies were statistically independent

international emissions trading under the kyoto protocol credit trading abstract the kyoto protocol allows emissions trading between countries the protocol does however not specify how such trade is to take place so far two options have been discussed in the literature government trading and permit trading this paper discusses a third option credit trading credit trading is based on abatement projects but differs from joint implementation in that it does not require direct foreign investment furthermore credit trading can be implemented both domestically and internationally the main advantages of credit trading are that it excludes trading in hot air while it still makes trade between private entities possible however the environmental effectiveness is doubtful especially when it is based on relative targets the paper shows that several interest groups prefer credit trading based on relative targets to permit trading also governments may have reasons to prefer credit trading to permit trading hence the political acceptability of credit trading is larger than that of permit trading making it more likely that credit trading will be allowed than permit trading

u s treasury bill forward and futures prices for the period 1976 87 forward rates on u s t bills averaged more than 30 basis points above the comparable futures market rates since risk is common to both rates i argue that this difference can be explained by the substitutability of different maturity t bills for money consistent with this hypothesis i find that this difference depends positively on interest rates and the spread between the federal funds and 3 month t bill rates and negatively on the ratio of short term governments to broadly defined money also significant shifts occurred in the relationship in october 1979 and august 1982 coinciding with changes in federal reserve operating procedures copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

does environmental regulation affect energy efficiency in china s thermal power generation empirical evidence from a slacks based dea model abstract data envelopment analysis dea has gained much popularity in performance measurement of power industry this paper presents a slack based measure approach to investigating the relationship between fossil fuel consumption and the environmental regulation of china s thermal power generation we first calculate the total factor energy efficiency without considering environmental constraints an environmental performance indicator is proposed through decomposing the total factor energy efficiency the proposed approach is then employed to examine whether environmental regulation affects the energy efficiency of china s thermal power generation we find that the environmental efficiency plays a significant role in affecting energy performance of china s thermal generation sector decreasing the discharge of major pollutants can improve both energy performance and environmental efficiency besides we also have three main findings 1 the energy efficiency and environmental efficiency were relatively low 2 the energy and environmental efficiency scores show great variations among provinces 3 both energy efficiency and environmental efficiency are of obvious geographical characteristics according to our findings we suggest some policy implications

an interim evaluation of sulfur dioxide emissions trading ide iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments established the first large scale long term environmental program to rely on tradable emissions permitscalled allowances in this program to control pollution this program was designed to cut acid rain by reducing sulfur dioxide so2 emissions from electric generating plants to about half their 1980 level beginning in 1995 it is of interest both as a response to an important environmental issue and as a landmark experiment in environmental policy this experiment comes at a particularly important time since emission trading is under serious consideration with strong u s backing for use to deal with global climate change by curbing emissions of carbon dioxide co2 the economic stakes in climate change surpass those in acid rain by several orders of magnitude intergovernmental panel on climate change 1996 this article summarizes the results to date of our ongoing empirical analysis of compliance costs and allowance market performance under the u s acid rain program

erratum standards versus standards the effects of different pollution restrictions when economists refer to pollution standards they almost universally mean uniform restrictions on pollution emissions e g william j baumol and wallace e oates 1975 ch 13 susan rose ackerman 1973 david besanko 1978 however in practice standards take many forms not only emissions restrictions but restrictions on pollution per unit of output or per unit of an input restrictions on the use of a polluting input or mandated use of a particular pollution control technology these specifications of regulations will have a variety of effects on a firm s resource allocation decisions for instance allowing pollution per unit of output as the standard instead of directly restricting the level of pollution gives the firm some choice in addition to reducing pollution it can increase its output to dilute the pollution this paper examines the effects of five different forms of pollution standards on input decisions the level of production and firm profits the results show that the different standards by providing firms with different incentives change the firm s allocation decisions and affect the relative profitability of the standards section i reviews the existing literature on the incentives of different instruments the following section describes the model to be used five different forms of pollution constraints are individually examined in section iii using a graphical approach their relative effects as well as some special cases are assessed in section iv finally section v raises the case of different standards when firms are not identical

soybean inventory and forward curve dynamics we present two results concerning soybean prices first we exhibit a simple relationship between stocks and price volatility the observation of an increasing price volatility with decreasing inventory is often mentioned in the literature but has so far been documented using a proxy for inventory see fama and french 1987 1988 litzenberger and rabinowitz 1995 instead we reconstruct a yearly quarterly and monthly database of worldwide soybean inventories using aggregate data from the united states brazil and argentina we show that under all time scales price volatility is an increasing linear function of inverse inventory which we term scarcity second we show how the addition of the factor scarcity in a state variable approach to the dynamics of the term structure of soybean forward prices improves the quality of the fit we document this property on a 25 year database of cbot futures contracts and show that the superior accuracy also affects long maturity futures contracts an important property for the valuation of long term origination contracts between producing countries and the agrifood industry

an empirical analysis of the co2 shadow price in chinese thermal power enterprises abstract this paper estimates the shadow price of co2 and explores its determinants for thermal power enterprises in china using a parametric quadratic directional distance function we evaluate the inefficiency and shadow price of co2 for 124 power enterprises in 2004 applying deterministic and econometric methods a regression analysis is undertaken to examine the factors that drive shadow prices our results indicate that there are large inefficiencies in terms of electricity production and co2 emissions the shadow price is a negative function of firm size age and coal share and is positively correlated with the technology level this correlation between shadow prices and its determinants is not sensitive to changing assumptions regarding directional vectors although such changes do alter the distribution of shadow prices the large variation witnessed in shadow prices across power enterprises argues in favor of market based regulation such as an emissions trading system as opposed to the command and control regulation currently used in china to minimize overall abatement cost

optimal intensity targets for greenhouse gas emissions trading under uncertainty uncertainty is an obstacle for commitments under cap and trade schemes for emission permits we assess how well intensity targets where each country s permit allocation is indexed to its future realized gdp can cope with uncertainties in international greenhouse emissions trading we present some empirical foundations for intensity targets and derive a simple rule for the optimal degree of indexation to gdp using an 18 region simulation model of a cooperative global cap and trade treaty in 2020 under multiple uncertainties and endogenous commitments we show that optimal intensity targets could reduce the cost of uncertainty and achieve significant increases in global abatement the optimal degree of indexation to gdp would vary greatly between countries including super indexation in some advanced countries and partial indexation for most developing countries standard intensity targets with one to one indexation would also improve the overall outcome but to a lesser degree and not in all individual cases although target indexation is no magic wand for a future global climate treaty gains from reduced cost uncertainty and the potential for more stringent environmental commitments could justify the increased complexity and other potential downsides of intensity targets

efficiency evaluation of china s provincial power systems based on the dynamic network slacks based measure model abstract a power system contains generation transmission and distribution divisions policy reforms and management mechanisms may affect the environmental efficiency of certain divisions or the integrated power system this study applied the dynamic network slacks based measure dnsbm model to analyze the environmental efficiency of both the power systems and their divisions of provincial administrative areas in china and investigated the effects of the external environmental factors it employed scenario analysis to further explore the feasibility of separating the distribution from the transmission division the results indicate that 1 the dnsbm model takes the internal structure of the power system into account and provides a new perspective to seek the sources of the system and division efficiencies 2 customer density and energy consumption intensity have significant impacts on the system and division efficiencies while the power generation structure only affects the environmental efficiency of the generation division 3 the scenario analysis shows that the policy of separating power plants from grids improved the system efficiency to which the improvement in generation division is the main contributor and separating distribution from transmission may have great potential for enhancing the efficiencies of power systems

permit trading and credit trading a comparison of cap based and rate based emissions trading under perfect and imperfect competition this paper compares emissions trading based on a cap on total emissions permit trading and on relative standards per unit of output credit trading two types of market structure are considered perfect competition and cournot oligopoly we find that output abatement costs and the number of firms are higher under credit trading allowing trade between permit trading and credit trading sectors may increase welfare with perfect competition permit trading always leads to higher welfare than credit trading with imperfect competition credit trading may outperform permit trading environmental policy can lead to exit but also to entry of firms entry and exit have a profound impact on the performance of the schemes especially under imperfect competition we find that it may be impossible to implement certain levels of total industry emissions under credit trading several levels of the relative standard can achieve the same total level of emissions

measuring the performance of thermal power firms in china via fuzzy enhanced russell measure model with undesirable outputs abstract thermal power has accounted for the major part of the electricity generation over recent several decades in china it plays an important role in supporting china s economic development while it also brings great pressure to the environment protection because of a large amount of pollution generated during its production in order to solve or alleviate the environmental problem caused by thermal power firms efficiency evaluation is the first important step as thermal power firm is a complex system with multiple inputs and multiple outputs usually including fuzzy data and undesirable outputs in the productions in this paper we build an integrated enhanced russell measure model based on data envelopment analysis for evaluating the performance of decision making units in the presence of the undesirable outputs in fuzzy circumstance then this new model is applied to analyze the environmental performance and provide the benchmarks for the thermal power firms in china which can guide the decision makers to make suitable future production plans for improving their performance

continuous time methods in finance a review and an assessment i survey and assess the development of continuous time methods in finance during the last 30 years the subperiod 1969 to 1980 saw a dizzying pace of development with seminal ideas in derivatives securities pricing term structure theory asset pricing and optimal consumption and portfolio choices during the period 1981 to 1999 the theory has been extended and modified to better explain empirical regularities in various subfields of finance this latter subperiod has seen significant progress in econometric theory computational and estimation methods to test and implement continuous time models capital market frictions and bargaining issues are being increasingly incorporated in continuous time theory the roots of modern continuous time methods in finance can be traced back to the seminal contributions of merton 1969 1971 1973b in the late 1960s and early 1970s merton 1969 pioneered the use of continuous time modeling in financial economics by formulating the intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an investor in a stochastic dynamic programming setting merton 1973b also showed how such a framework can be used to develop equilibrium asset pricing implications thereby significantly extending the asset pricing theory to richer dynamic settings and expanding the scope of applications of continuous time methods to study problems in financial economics 1 within a span of about 30 years from the publication of merton s inf luential papers continuous time methods have become an integral part of financial economics indeed in certain core areas in finance such as e g asset pricing derivatives valuation term structure theory and portfolio selection continuoustime methods have proved to be the most attractive way to conduct research and gain economic intuition the continuous time approach in these areas has produced models with a rich variety of testable implications the econometric theory for testing continuous time models has made rapid strides in the last decade and has thus kept pace with the impressive progress on the theoretical front one hopes that the actual empirical investigations and estimation using the new procedures will follow suit soon

green efficiency and environmental subsidy evidence from thermal power firms in china abstract to achieve green development ample environmental subsidies have been invested into many energy intensive firms such as thermal power firms in china investigations of the effects of this kind of subsidy can help to provide specific and important implications for ongoing regulations unlike previous studies on the national regional or sectoral level this paper measures green efficiency and its compositions of thermal power firms and studies the impact of environmental subsidies on green efficiency by using the classical slacks based measure and tobit model the results show that the average green efficiency ranges from 0 509 to 0 663 during 2010 2015 which is much lower than the general efficiency the green scale efficiency is the main reason for the low green efficiency thus indicating large room for improvement environmental subsidies negatively affect green efficiency and its decompositions from 2010 to 2013 the negative effect becomes weak and insignificant in 2014 and the environmental subsidies start to significantly promote green efficiency and its decompositions in 2015 according to our findings some implications relating to improving green scale efficiency increasing the intensity of environmental subsidies to firms and strengthening their supervision are proposed

a continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy abstract this paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices we construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production using this model we find three main results first we find formulas for equilibrium forward futures discount bond commodity bond and commodity option prices second we show that a futures price is actually a forward price for the delivery of a random number of units of a good the random number is the return earned from continuous reinvestment in instantaneously riskless bonds until maturity of the futures contract third we find and interpret conditions under which normal backwardation or contango is found in forward or futures prices these conditions reflect the usefulness of forward and futures contracts as consumption hedges

green expectations current effects of anticipated carbon pricing i report evidence that an anticipated strengthening of environmental policy increased emissions i find that the breakdown of the u s senate s 2010 climate effort generated positive excess returns

on the efficiency of competitive markets for emission permits it is typical for economists and policy makers alike to presume that competitive markets allocate emission permits efficiently this paper demonstrates that competition in the emission permits market cannot assure efficiency when the product market is oligopolistic we provide the conditions under which a bureaucratic mechanism is welfare superior to a tradeable emission permits system price taking behaviour in the permits market ensures transfer of licenses to the less efficient in abatement firms which then become more aggressive in the product market acquiring additional permits as a result the less efficient firms end up with a higher than the welfare maximizing share of emission permits if the less efficient in abatement firms are also less efficient in production competitive trading of permits may result in lower output and welfare

testing the heath jarrow morton ho lee model of interest rate contingent claims pricing this paper presents empirical tests of the constant volatility version of the heath jarrow and morton model which is also the continuous time limit of the ho and lee model using a generalized method of moments gmm test on three years of daily data for eurodollar futures and futures options the model can be rejected for most subperiods various biases in the fitted option prices relative to the market prices are documented through a regression study the small sample properties and power of the gmm framework to this setting are also studied through simulations

pricing foreign currency options under stochastic interest rates abstract in this paper we build a general framework to price contingent claims on foreign currencies using the heath et al 1987 model of the term structure closed form solutions are obtained for european options on currencies and currency futures assuming that the volatility functions determining the term structure are deterministic as such this paper provides an example of a bond price process for both the domestic and foreign economies consistent with grabbe s 1983 formulation of the same problem

indian bank efficiency and productivity changes with undesirable outputs a disaggregated approach the objective of this study is to examine technical efficiency and productivity growth in the indian banking sector over the period from 2004 to 2011 we apply an innovative methodological approach introduced by chen et al 2011 and barros et al 2012 who use a weighted russell directional distance model to measure technical inefficiency we further modify and extend that model to measure tfp change with npls we find that the inefficiency levels are significantly different among the three ownership structure of banks in india foreign banks have strong market position in india and they pull the production frontier in a more efficient direction spbs and domestic private banks show considerably higher inefficiency we conclude that the restructuring policy applied in the late 1990s and early 2000s by the indian government has not had a long lasting effect

on emissions trading and market structure cap and trade versus intensity standards this paper examines the interdependence between imperfect competition and emissions trading we particularly analyze the long run equilibrium in a two sector clean and dirty model with cournot competition among firms who face a fixed cost of production the clean sector is defined as the sector with the highest long run cost margin on emissions we compare the welfare implications of a cap and trade scheme with an emissions trading scheme based on relative intensity standards it is shown that a firm s long run equilibrium output in the clean or dirty sector does not depend on the emissions trading format but only depends on the fixed cost of producing in the respective sector intensity standards can result in clean firms selling allowances to dirty firms or dirty firms selling to clean firms the former outcome yields higher welfare it is demonstrated that cap and trade outperforms the intensity based trading scheme in terms of long run welfare with free entry and exit with intensity standards the size of the clean sector is too large

a recovery that we can trust deducing and testing the restrictions of the recovery theorem how reliable is the recovery theorem of ross 2015 we explore this question in the context of options on the 30 year treasury bond futures allowing us to deduce restrictions that link the physical and risk neutral return distributions our empirical results undermine the implications of the recovery theorem first we reject an implicit assumption of the recovery theorem that the martingale component of the stochastic discount factor is identical to unity second we consider the restrictions between the physical and risk neutral return moments when the recovery theorem holds and reject them in both forecasting regressions and generalized method of moments estimations received november 7 2016 editorial decision july 24 2017 by editor stijn van nieuwerburgh authors have furnished an internet appendix which is available on the oxford university press web site next to the link to the final published paper online

forward contracts and futures contracts abstract this paper provides a detailed discussion of the similarities and differences between forward contracts and futures contracts under frictionless markets and continuous trading simple arbitrage arguments are invoked to value forward contracts to relate forward prices and spot prices and to relate forward prices and futures prices we also argue that forward prices need not equal futures prices unless default free interest rates are deterministic

emissions trading ercs or allowances emissions trading takes place from two alternative baselines 1 emission reduction credits ercs in which the baseline is existing regulations which are often activity based or 2 cap and trade which specifies the total allowable emissions this paper examines the effects of these two tradable permit systems on marginal and average costs for the firm using electricity generation as an example the erc system subsidizes the activity level to which it is tied and fails to incorporate the full cost of external harm into the product price if the permit limit is chosen ef ficiently the cap and trade system is more effi cient

exclusionary manipulation of markets for pollution rights abstract strategic price manipulation can affect the distribution of transferable pollution rights across polluters and the efficiency of pollution control efforts prior research has concentrated on market manipulation by firms seeking only to minimize the sum of pollution rights costs and pollution abatement costs in this paper we explore the potential for the exclusionary manipulation of pollution permit markets intended to drive up the costs of one s rivals and we distinguish between the resource allocation effects of exclusionary manipulation and cost minimizing manipulation we find that exclusionary manipulation can sometimes worsen and sometimes ameliorate the abatement inefficiency which occurs under cost minimizing manipulation and that an overbuying rule can obviate or at least limit damages from this form of strategic behavior

tails fears and risk premia we show that the compensation for rare events accounts for a large fraction of the average equity and variance risk premia exploiting the special structure of the jump tails and the pricing thereof we identify and estimate a new investor fears index the index reveals large time varying compensation for fears of disasters our empirical investigations involve new extreme value theory approximations and high frequency intraday data for estimating the expected jump tails under the statistical probability measure and short maturity out of the money options and new model free implied variation measures for estimating the corresponding risk neutral expectations

index futures arbitrage and the behavior of stock index futures prices this article examines intraday transaction datafor s p 500 stock indexfutures prices and the intraday quotes for the underlying index the data indicate that thefutures price changes are uncorrelated and that the variability of these price changes exceeds the variability ofprice changes in the s p 500 index this excess variability of the futures over the index remains even after controlling for the nonsynchronous prices in the index quotes which induces autocorrelation in the index changes we advance and examine empirically two hypotheses regarding the difference between the futures price and its theoretical value that this mispricing increases on average with maturity and that it is path dependent evidence supporting these hypotheses is presented

measuring the efficiency of grid companies in china a bootstrapping non parametric meta frontier approach abstract the unbundling policy reform of power industry has become a worldwide trend since 1980s there are quite many studies focusing on the efficiency changes of transmission and distribution sectors in european and latin american countries while few reports on china s issues have been found this paper employs a nonparametric frontier estimation combined with meta frontier and bootstrapping method to measure the productive efficiency and changes in the decomposition index for china s 31 grid companies from 2004 to 2013 in addition it further employs tobit regression model to analyze the influences of relevant policies and heterogeneity factors such as natural conditions and economic development the results indicate that the grouping approach extends the application of non parametric data envelopment analysis which may decrease the assumption of homogeneity for the decision making units and provide better efficiency estimates by increasing the credibility of the evaluation results overall productive efficiency increased during the whole study period with technology progress the main contributor to this improvement efficiency trends fluctuated with changes in economic development and power supply situation and the economics and customer density had positive effects on productive efficiency while the influence of clean power proportion is negative

tradable emission rights and strategic interaction the use of tradable emission rights as environmental policy instruments may affect the conditions for strategic interaction between regulated firms and thus have implications for competition policy this paper presents an analysis of how and under what conditions emission rights can be used strategically by oligopolistic firms for predatory and exclusionary purposes

functional ross recovery theoretical results and empirical tests abstract recently ross 2015 showed that the real world probability distribution of a discrete markovian state variable can be recovered from observed option prices the so called recovery theorem follows from perron frobenius matrix theory when the pricing kernel is transition independent in this paper we generalize the recovery theorem to continuous state spaces using perron frobenius operator theory building on our theoretical results we devise a nonparametric approach to empirically estimate the recovered pricing kernel and probability density in closed form using s p 500 index options we analyze recovered pricing kernels empirically and find evidence that ross recovery is misspecified

a theory of dissimilarity between stochastic discount factors this paper proposes a measure of dissimilarity between stochastic discount factors sdfs in different economies the sdfs are made comparable using the respective bond prices as the numeraire the

efficiency evaluation of chinese regional industrial systems with undesirable factors using a two stage slacks based measure approach abstract the process of a regional industrial system in china can be separated into two internal stages production stage and pollutant abatement stage this paper aims to examine the efficiency of chinese regional industrial systems by taking the operational performance of its two internal stages into consideration unlike traditional data envelopment analysis models that treat decision making units as black box when measuring their efficiencies with undesirable factors this paper proposes a two stage model based on slacks based measure to evaluate the efficiency of chinese regional industrial systems by decomposing the efficiency into production efficiency and abatement efficiency the proposed model can estimate the efficiencies of the whole regional industrial system its production stage and abatement stage simultaneously the model provides a way of improving performance of a regional industrial system through identifying its inefficient internal stages this can help to find out the main sources of the inefficiency that arise from the internal stages within the system which cannot be done by using conventional environmental data envelopment analysis models findings resulting from the model application show that there are great disparities in regional industrial systems efficiencies and the inefficiency of chinese industrial system is largely driven by the abatement stage

pricing of long dated commodity derivatives do stochastic interest rates matter abstract does modelling stochastic interest rates beyond stochastic volatility improve pricing performance on long dated commodity derivatives to answer this question we consider futures price models for commodity derivatives that allow for stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates and a correlation structure between the underlying variables we examine the empirical pricing performance of these models on pricing long dated crude oil derivatives estimating the model parameters from historical crude oil futures prices and option prices we find that stochastic interest rate models improve pricing performance on long dated crude oil derivatives when the interest rate volatility is relatively high furthermore increasing the model dimensionality does not tend to improve the pricing performance on long dated crude oil option prices but it matters for long dated futures prices we also find empirical evidence for a negative correlation between crude oil futures prices and interest rates that contributes to improving fit to long dated crude oil option prices

using asset prices to measure the persistence of the marginal utility of wealth we derive a lower bound for the volatility of the permanent component of investors marginal utility of wealth or more generally asset pricing kernels the bound is based on return properties of long term zero coupon bonds risk free bonds and other risky securities we find the permanent component of the pricing kernel to be very volatile its volatility is about at least as large as the volatility of the stochastic discount factor a related measure for the transitory component suggest it to be considerably less important we also show that for many cases where the pricing kernel is a function of consumption innovations to consumption need to have permanent effects

returns of claims on the upside and the viability of u shaped pricing kernels abstract when the pricing kernel is u shaped then expected returns of claims with payout on the upside are negative for strikes beyond a threshold determined by the slope of the u shaped kernel in its increasing region and have negative partial derivative with respect to strike in the increasing region of the kernel using returns of i s p 500 index calls ii calls on major international equity indexes iii digital calls iv upside variance contracts and v a theoretical construct that we denote as kernel call we find broad support for the implications of u shaped pricing kernels a possible theoretical reconciliation of our empirical findings is explored through a model that accommodates heterogeneity in beliefs about return outcomes and short selling

the relation between forward prices and futures prices abstract this paper consolidates the results of some recent work on the relation between forward prices and futures prices it develops a number of propositions characterizing the two prices these propositions contain several testable implications about the difference between forward and futures prices many of the propositions show that equilibrium forward and futures prices are equal to the values of particular assets even though they are not in themselves asset prices the paper then illustrates these results in the context of two valuation models and discusses the effects of taxes and other institutional factors

estimating the environmental efficiency and marginal co2 abatement cost of coal fired power plants in china abstract we estimate the environmental efficiency reduction potential and marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide co2 emissions from coal fired power plants in china using a novel plant level dataset derived from the first and second waves of the national economic survey which were implemented in 2004 and 2008 respectively the results indicate that there are large opportunities for co2 emissions reduction in china s coal fired power plants given that all power plants operate fully efficiently china s co2 emissions in 2004 and 2008 could have been reduced by 52 and 70 respectively accompanied by an expansion in electricity output in other words the opportunities for double dividend exist in 2004 the average marginal abatement cost of co2 emissions for china s power plants was approximately 955 yuan ton whereas in 2008 the cost increased to 1142 yuan ton the empirical analyses show that subsidies from the government can reduce environmental inefficiency but the subsidies significantly increase the shadow price of the power plants older and larger power plants have a lower environmental efficiency and marginal co2 abatement cost the ratio of coal consumption negatively affects the environmental efficiencies of power plants

taxes and the futures forward price difference in the 91 day t bill market this paper investigates a tax based explanation for the futures forward price divergence in the ninety one day t bill the explanation is firstly in terms of the distinction between capital gains and losses and ordinary gains and losses and secondly in terms of investors to whom the above distinction applies and investors such as broker dealers to whom it does not the empirical results are encouraging though more ambiguous in the post 1981 period overall it would seem that other factors in addition to taxes are also at work copyright 1989 by ohio state university press

an activity analysis model of the environmental performance of firms application to fossil fuel fired electric utilities the productivity of firms when some outputs pollution are undesirable has been studied in the literature for some time in this paper we introduce an environmental performance indicator based on the decomposition of overall factor productivity into a pollution index and an input output efficiency index this indicator is compared to the more conventional jaggi and freedman 1992 model results are given for illustrative purposes using data from u s fossil fuel fired electric utilities the rankings of the utilities obtained with the two models show significant divergence which is due to the different ways in which the undesirable outputs are dealt with as well as due to the different possible tradeoffs between the pollutants released into the atmosphere and the resources used as inputs

dea approach for unified efficiency measurement assessment of japanese fossil fuel power generation this study discusses a new dea data envelopment analysis approach to measure the unified operational and environmental efficiency of energy firms it is widely known that they produce not only desirable good outputs e g electricity but also undesirable bad outputs e g co2 as a result of their plant operations the proposed approach incorporates an output separation desirable and undesirable outputs for the performance evaluation of energy firms in addition to the output separation this study separates inputs into energy and non energy inputs consequently the proposed approach incorporates not only the output separation but also the input separation within a computational framework of dea non radial measurement this study compares the proposed approach with other previous dea approaches used for the performance evaluation of energy firms after the methodological comparison this study applies the proposed approach for measuring the unified efficiency of japanese fossil fuel power generation this empirical study confirms that the implementation of kyoto protocol 2005 has not been effective on the unified efficiency of japanese fossil fuel power generation during the observed period 2004 2008 although the empirical result is inconsistent with the current japanese environmental policy under kyoto protocol it contains policy implications for guiding the future direction of japanese environmental policy on the electric power industry

econometric modelling of non ferrous metal prices abstract this article evaluates the significance of the empirical models and the distributional properties of prices in non ferrous metal spots and futures markets published in leading refereed economics and finance journals between 1980 and 2002 the survey focuses on econometric analyses of pricing and return models applied to exchange based spot and futures markets for the main industrially used non ferrous metals namely aluminium copper lead nickel tin and zinc published empirical research is evaluated in the light of the type of contract examined frequency of data used choice of both dependent and explanatory variables use of proxy variables type of model chosen economic hypotheses tested methods of estimation and calculation of ses for inference reported descriptive statistics use of diagnostic tests of auxiliary assumptions use of nested and non nested tests use of information criteria and empirical implications for non ferrous metals