the effects of military spending on economic activity evidence from state procurement spending the authors use state data from the period 1963 94 to estimate the response of employment growth to military procurement spending the state year panel provides greater variation in both variables than aggregate data there are two main findings first military procurement spending does explain a statistically significant degree of the variation in employment growth across states even in the presence of fixed effects for time and state and other controls second the authors find evidence in support of a nonlinear relationship between procurement spending and employment growth in particular large adverse state procurement shocks have proportionately larger effects on state employment growth rates copyright 1997 by ohio state university press

modeling unit commitment in political context case of china s partially restructured electricity sector restructuring an electricity sector entails a complex realignment of political and economic institutions which may both delay and distort the achievement of satisfactorily competitive conditions in research and planning for policy interventions in power systems under these varied regulatory environments typical operational models may neglect important interactions between techno economic criteria and political constraints leading to poor understanding of underlying causes of inefficiency and to inappropriate recommendations we develop tractable formulations of the unit commitment problem based on integer clustering of similar units that endogenize important political factors in the northeast grid region of china we demonstrate the importance of these interactions on operations and provide a set of options for researchers to explore further pathways for china s ongoing power system reforms for example wind integration a key policy priority is inhibited by the interaction of institutions limiting short and long term sources of flexibilities in interprovincial trade

the sustainable borders of the state economic crises have historically set the stage for the reconfiguration of the economic borders of the state current concerns focus on debt and associated intergenerational issues such as pensions infrastructure and the environment the sustainable state is designed to put in place a framework for integrating these intergenerational issues alongside the traditional focus on macroeconomic policy static market failures and transfers the building blocks include the accounting framework and in particular a national balance sheet setting out assets and liabilities and providing for capital maintenance over time to support these assets and to provide for sufficient investment the sustainable state requires an appropriate level of savings and institutions to translate these savings into investments two components are the deployment of regulatory asset bases to underpin long term sunk and fixed costs given the time inconsistency problem in government s commitments and the development of financial intermediaries such as an infrastructure bank copyright 2011 oxford university press

security of electricity supply at the generation level problem analysis abstract since the very beginning of the restructuring process back in 1982 in chile the ability of an electricity market to provide the system with the required level of security of supply has been put into question the mistrust on the ability of the market left to its own devices to provide sufficient generation availability when needed is more and more leading to the implementation of additional regulatory mechanisms this matter is undoubtedly gaining importance and it has taken a key role in the energy regulators agendas in this paper we revisit this discussion under the light of thirty years of electricity market experience we analyze the different reasons why although ideally the market is supposed to provide itself an adequate security of supply at the generation level this result is still far from being achieved in practice

optimal pricing of non utility generated electric power the importance of an optimal pricing policy for pricing nonutility generated power is pointed out in this paper an optimal pricing policy leads to benefits for all concerned the utility industry and the utility s other customers in this paper it is shown that reliability differentiated real time pricing provides an optimal nonutility generated power pricing policy from a societal welfare point of view firm capacity purchase and hence an optimal price for purchasing firm capacity are an integral part of this pricing policy a case study shows that real time pricing without firm capacity purchase results in improper investment decisions and higher costs for the system as a whole without explicit firm capacity purchase the utility makes greater investment in capacity addition in order to meet its reliability criteria than is socially optimal it is concluded that the nonutility generated power pricing policy presented in this paper and implied by reliability differentiated pricing policy results in social welfare maximizing investment and operation decisions

how successful was the new deal the microeconomic impact of new deal spending and lending policies in the 1930s the new deal during the 1930s was arguably the largest peace time expansion in federal government activity in american history until recently there had been very little quantitative testing of the microeconomic impact of the wide variety of new deal programs over the past decade scholars have developed new panel databases for counties cities and states and then used panel data methods on them to examine the impact of new deal spending and lending policies for the major new deal programs in most cases the identification of the effect comes from changes across time within the same geographic location after controlling for national shocks to the economy many of the studies also use instrumental variable methods to control for endogeneity the studies find that public works and relief spending had state income multipliers of around one increased consumption activity attracted internal migration reduced crime rates and lowered several types of mortality the farm programs typically aided large farm owners but eliminated opportunities for share croppers tenants and farm workers the home owners loan corporation s purchases and refinancing of troubled mortgages staved off drops in housing prices and home ownership rates at relatively low ex post cost to taxpayers the reconstruction finance corporation s loans to banks and railroads appear to have had little positive impact although the banks were aided when the rfc took ownership stakes

co2 emission standards and investment in carbon capture abstract policy makers in a number of countries have proposed or are considering proposing co 2 emission standards for new fossil fuel fired power plants the proposed standards require coal fired power plants to have approximately the same carbon emissions as an uncontrolled natural gas fired power plant effectively mandating the adoption of carbon capture and sequestration ccs technologies for new coal plants however given the uncertainty in the capital and operating costs of a commercial scale coal plant with ccs the impact of such a standard is not apparent a priori we apply a stochastic generation expansion model to determine the impact of co 2 emission standards on generation investment decisions and in particular for coal plants with ccs moreover we demonstrate how the incentive to invest in coal ccs from emission standards depends on the natural gas price the co 2 price and the enhanced oil recovery price as well as on the level of the emission standard this analysis is the first to consider the entire power system and at the same time allow the capture percentage for ccs plants to be chosen from a continuous range to meet the given standard at minimum cost previous system level studies have assumed that ccs plants capture 90 of the carbon while studies of individual units have demonstrated the costs of carbon capture over a continuous range we show that 1 currently proposed levels of emission standards are more likely to shift fossil fuel generation from coal to natural gas rather than to incentivize investment in ccs 2 tighter standards that require some carbon reductions from natural gas fired power plants are more likely than proposed standards to incentivize investments in ccs especially on natural gas plants but also on coal plants at high gas prices and 3 imposing a less strict emission standard emission rates higher than natural gas but lower than coal e g 1500 lbs mwh is more likely than current proposals to incentivize investment in coal ccs technology but only at high gas prices and to a lesser extent than a stringent standard e g 300 lbs mwh

fiscal policy and economic recovery the case of the 1936 veterans bonus conventional wisdom has it that in the 1930s scal policy did not work because it was not tried this paper shows that scal policy though inadvertent was tried in 1936 and a variety of evidence suggests that it worked a decit nanced veterans bonus provided 3 2 million world war i veterans with cash and bond payments totaling 2 percent of gdp the typical veteran received a payment equal to annual per capita personal income this paper uses time series and cross sectional data to identify the eects of the bonus i exploit four sources of quantitative evidence a detailed household consumption survey cross state and cross city regressions aggregate time series and a previously unused american legion survey of veterans the evidence paints a consistent picture in which veterans quickly spent the majority of their bonus spending was concentrated on cars and housing in particular narrative accounts support these quantitative results a simple calculation suggests that the bonus added 2 5 to 3 percentage points to 1936 gdp growth

consumer spending and the economic stimulus payments of 2008 abstract we measure the change in household spending caused by receipt of the economic stimulus payments of 2008 using questions added to the consumer expenditure survey and variation from the ran

tax wedges and mobile capital an import tariff or an export tax drives a wedge between the domestic price of a traded good faced in one country and that in another but what can be said about the price of the taxed good relative to the price of untaxed goods in two countries the standard lloyd metzler and abba lerner potentiall y paradoxical answers to this question are reconsidered in a trading world where one kind of sector specific capital is internationally mo bile it is argued that there is a presumption that taxing trade in c ommodities tends to weaken the price both domestically and in world markets of the good which utilizes mobile capital copyright 1987 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

output effects of government purchases the theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases under plausible conditions the temporary case involves an output response that is positive less than one to one with the change in government purchases and larger than that generated by an equal sized but permanent shift in purchase the equilibrium real rate of return rise in the temporary case but changes little in the permanent one defense purchases are divided empirically into permanent and temporary components by considering the role of temporary wars no temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases the results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally supportive of the theory

reliability differentiated pricing of spinning reserve this paper derives the spinning reserve pricing policy implied by the reliability differentiated pricing model and illustrates the importance of such a pricing policy the purchase of additional spinning reserve capacity at the prices derived leads to benefits for the customers through reduced real and reactive power prices and improved reliability of the power system and for the power system as a whole through reduced societal costs and less investment in system reinforcements the magnitudes and behavior of the optimal prices for real and reactive spinning reserve are illustrated in two case studies one case study determines reliability differentiated prices of real and reactive power for a sample four area power system with and without spinning reserve purchase and the optimal purchase prices for both real and reactive power spinning reserve capacities the results of this case study show that when reliability differentiated pricing is extended to both real and reactive power reserve it leads to benefits for customers and the power system as a whole a second case study examines the locational dependence of optimal prices for real and reactive reserves on the operating status of equipment in the 24 bus ieee reliability test system it is concluded that even small amounts of reliable reserve capacity purchase from neighboring electric utilities can improve the reliability of the power system and lower expected real and reactive power prices leading to gains in social welfare

electricity load level detail in computational general equilibrium part i data and calibration abstract the growing importance of the electricity sector in many economies and of energy and environmental policies requires a detailed consideration of these sectors and policies in computable general equilibrium cge models including both technological and temporal aspects this paper presents the first attempt to our knowledge at building temporal disaggregation into a cge model while keeping technological detail this contribution is coupled with some methodological improvements over existing technology rich cge models the model is able to account for the indirect effects characteristic of cge models while also mimicking the detailed behavior of the electricity operation and investment present before only in bottom up detailed models the present paper is the first of two parts and focuses on the bottom up top down calibration methodology needed to build such a model part ii will present the cge model applied to the evaluation of an energy policy with temporal consequences

renewable generation and electricity prices taking stock and new evidence for germany and austria abstract economic theory predicts that the increase of renewable electricity production should reduce the price of electricity in the short run which is also known as the merit order effect although the merit order effect is only one of several consequences of renewable production on the electricity system it is crucial to determine its size for the economic evaluation of renewable energies in this paper we present a comprehensive overview of relevant past research results on the price effect of renewables additionally we conduct a new empirical analysis of the price effect of renewable production for the austrian german region a market that clearly qualifies for a merit order effect analysis given its characteristics based on the review and our own analysis we show that the merit order effect varies depending on the region and the assessment method chosen we also find that the size of this effect is less dispersed throughout different markets than previously suggested by the literature

production cost minimization versus consumer payment minimization in electricity pools algorithms that involve some kind of optimization have been adopted by several electricity pools as a tool to clear the market traditionally this kind of models were used on a cost minimizing basis but recent papers have pointed out that alternative dispatches may be obtained that even with higher production costs result in lower electricity prices for consumers this paper studies this new payment minimization approach including the long term economic signals that it provides and their impact on future investments the authors results show that minimizing consumer payment results in discriminatory scheduling for certain generation resources and may cause in the long run higher prices for consumers

on measuring the effects of fiscal policy in recessions we do not have a good measure of the effects of fiscal policy in a recession because the methods that we use to estimate the effects of fiscal policy both those using the observed outcomes following different policies in aggregate data and those studying counterfactuals in fitted model economies almost entirely ignore the state of the economy and estimate the government multiplier which is presumably a weighted average of the one we care about the multiplier in a recession and one we care less about the multiplier in an expansion notable exceptions to this general claim sug gest this difference is potentially large our lack of knowledge stems significantly from the focus on linear dynamics vector autoregressions and linearized or close to linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge models our lack of knowledge also reflects a lack of data deep recessions are few and nonlinearities hard to measure the lack of statistical power in the estimation of nonlinear models using aggregate data can be addressed by exploiting estimates of partial equilibrium responses in disaggregated data microeconomic estimates of the partial equilibrium causal effects of a policy can discipline the causal channels inherent in any dsge model of the general equilibrium effects of policy microeconomic studies can also provide measures of the dependence of the effects of a policy on the states of different agents which is a key component of the dependence of the general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy on the state of the

the dominant borrower syndrome abstractthe financing channel of a fiscal stimulus matters for the size and the sign of the fiscal multiplier we develop a general equilibrium model where a fiscal stimulus is partially bank funded and the government becomes the dominant borrower from banks relative to entrepreneurs this leads to a negative impact on credit spreads investment and a contraction in output we support our story with a structural vector autoregression for a sample of developing countries featuring the dominant borrower syndrome

new keynesian versus old keynesian government spending multipliers renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy because of modelling uncertainty it is essential that policy evaluations be robust to alternative assumptions we find that models currently being used in practice to evaluate fiscal policy stimulus proposals are not robust government spending multipliers in an alternative empirically estimated and widely cited new keynesian model are much smaller than in these old keynesian models the estimated stimulus is extremely small with gdp and employment effects only one sixth as large and with private sector employment impacts likely to be even smaller we investigate the sensitivity of our findings with regard to the response of monetary policy the zero bound on nominal interest rates and the inclusion of an empirically relevant degree of rule of thumb behaviour in the new keynesian model in addition we relate our findings using estimated structural macroeconomic models to the recent literature using reduced form regression techniques

the credibility revolution in empirical economics how better research design is taking the con out of econometrics since edward leamer s memorable 1983 paper let s take the con out of econometrics empirical microeconomics has experienced a credibility revolution while leamer s suggested remedy sensitivity analysis has played a role in this we argue that the primary engine driving improvement has been a focus on the quality of empirical research designs the advantages of a good research design are perhaps most easily apparent in research using random assignment we begin with an overview of leamer s 1983 critique and his proposed remedies we then turn to the key factors we see contributing to improved empirical work including the availability of more and better data along with advances in theoretical econometric understanding but especially the fact that research design has moved front and center in much of empirical micro we offer a brief digression into macroeconomics and industrial organization where progress by our lights is less dramatic although there is work in both fields that we find encouraging finally we discuss the view that the design pendulum has swung too far critics of design driven studies argue that in pursuit of clean and credible research designs researchers seek good answers instead of good questions we briefly respond to this concern which worries us little

episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model we analyze the effects of world wars on the macroeconomic dynamics of the u s france germany and the uk by means of an estimated open economy model the model allows wars to affect the economy through capital depreciation sovereign default a military draft household preferences and spillovers on other exogenous processes productivity investment trade policy variables if the bulk of fluctuations during war episodes can be explained by the rise in government spending in the u s other factors are crucial in other countries we also discuss the size and state dependence of public spending multipliers and a counterfactual welfare exercise

competitive bidding as a control problem the dynamics and mechanisms of bidding by electricity generators to supply electricity to a national grid are investigated a mathematical model for the bidding process is developed and the generators are assumed to act rationally according to the maximize expected utility principle the model and system objectives are interpreted as a classical control problem and results simulated and analytical are presented the results show that by introducing multiple bidding rounds convergence to a pareto optimum is possible if a proportional integral control policy is introduced

fiscal policy in the aftermath of 9 11 this paper investigates the nature of u s fiscal policy in the aftermath of 9 11 we argue that the recent declines in the government surplus and tax rates cannot be accounted for by either the state of the u s economy as of 9 11 or as the typical response of fiscal policy to a large exogenous rise in military expenditures our evidence suggests that had tax rates responded in the way they normally do to a large fiscal shock aggregate output would have been lower and the surplus would not have changed by much our results do not bear directly on the desirability of the decline in tax rates or the surplus after 9 11

on the economics of renewable energy sources abstract with the global expansion of renewable energy re technologies the provision of optimal re policy packages becomes an important task we review pivotal aspects regarding the economics of renewables that are relevant to the design of an optimal re policy many of which are to date unresolved we do so from three interrelated perspectives that a meaningful public policy framework for inquiry must take into account first we explore different social objectives justifying the deployment of re technologies and review model based estimates of the economic potential of re technologies i e their socially optimal deployment level second we address pivotal market failures that arise in the course of implementing the economic potential of re sources in decentralized markets third we discuss multiple policy instruments curing these market failures our framework reveals the requirements for an assessment of the relevant options for real world decision makers in the field of re policies this review makes it clear that there are remaining white areas on the knowledge map concerning consistent and socially optimal re policies

north south investment flows and optimal environmental policies abstract in the context of a simple north south model that focuses on the international movement of capital we show how neglect of pollution generating effects of foreign investment may lead to distorted and misleading policy recommendations such a neglect has recently received emphasis in the empirical literature on east asian economies as in bello and rosenfeld 1990 dragons in distress asia s miracle economics in crisis food first san francisco and was shown to overlook resulting tendencies in these economies toward specialization away from agriculture and toward manufacturing our simple model formalizes this observation and allows us to show that even for an unspecialized capital poor resource rich south such pollution generating effects provide incentives for the north to encourage rather than to discourage foreign investment abroad and strengthen southern incentives to restrict foreign investment more sharply than is conventionally assumed in a nutshell it brings out the implications of northern capital creating its own demand as a consequence of its adverse impact on the southern resource base despite its simplicity the model thus sheds light on three interrelated aspects of international trading relations production asymmetry incomplete markets and monopolistic advantage

macroeconomic effects from government purchases and taxes for u s annual data that include world war ii the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0 4 0 5 contemporaneously and 0 6 0 7 over 2 years if the change in defense spending is permanent gauged by ramey s defense news variable the multipliers are higher by 0 1 0 2 since all estimated multipliers are significantly less than 1 greater spending crowds out other components of gdp particularly investment the lack of good instruments prevents estimation of reliable multipliers for nondefense purchases multipliers in the literature of two or more likely reflect reverse causation from gdp to nondefense purchases increases in average marginal income tax rates measured by a newly constructed time series have significantly negative effects on gdp when interpreted as a tax multiplier the magnitude is around 1 1 the combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that the balanced budget multiplier for defense spending is negative we have some evidence that tax changes affect gdp mainly through substitution effects rather than wealth effects

the analytics of svars a unified framework to measure fiscal multipliers ticities implied by the identification schemes generate a large dispersion in the estimates of tax and spending multipliers second i estimate fiscal multipliers consistent with prior distributions of the elasticities computed by a variety of empirical strategies and by employing a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model i document three findings for the u s for the period 1947 2010 first the impact tax multiplier is close to 0 second the impact spending multiplier ranges between 0 35 and 1 third there is a large uncertainty in the estimates of fiscal multipliers at longer horizons yet the probability that the spending multiplier is larger than the tax multiplier is above 0 65 for up to three years after policy interventions

using stock returns to identify government spending shocks this article explores a new approach to identifying government spending shocks which avoids many of the shortcomings of existing approaches the new approach is to identify government spending shocks with statistical innovations to the accumulated excess returns of large us military contractors this strategy is used to estimate the dynamic responses of output hours consumption and real wages to a government spending shock we find that positive government spending shocks are associated with increases in output hours and consumption real wages initially decline after a government spending shock and then rise after a year we estimate the government spending multiplier associated with increases in military spending to be about 1 5 over a horizon of 5 years

general revenue sharing and public sector unions abstract in this paper i find that in the context of a large intergovernmental general revenue sharing program implemented from 1972 to 1986 cities increased expenditures one for one with federal grants which is suggestive of a large flypaper effect furthermore i find that cities in states with pro union collective bargaining laws spent more than half of the transfers on increased wages while cities in states without such laws spent a greater fraction on increased government services these latter findings suggest that public sector unions play an important role in determining the usage and impact of intergovernmental grants

a market approach to long term security of supply the problem of ensuring that there is enough generation capacity to meet future demand has been an issue in market design since the beginning of the deregulation process although ideally the market itself should be enough to provide adequate investment incentives there are several factors that prevent this result from being achieved and some actual markets have already experienced problems related with a lack of generation capacity a regulatory framework to address this question is presented the procedure is based on an organized market where reliability contracts based on financial call options are auctioned so both their price and their allocation among the different plants are determined through competitive mechanisms this results in a stabilization of the income of the generators and provides a clear incentive for new generation investment with a minimum of regulatory intervention additionally the method represents a market compatible mechanism to hedge demand from the occurrence of high market prices

export share requirements trade balances and welfare a two period analysis abstract this paper provides a two period three sector general equilibrium model for examining the effects of a temporary increase in export share requirements to foreign owned firms on the trade balance and national welfare the analysis suggests that the policy of a temporary rise in export requirements results in increases in the non tradable prices for both periods as well as intertemporal welfare the policy also leads to an improvement in the first period trade balance

the effects of public spending shocks on trade balances and budget deficits in the european union we investigate the consequences of an increase in public spending for trade balances and budget deficits in the european union using a panel var approach whereas the literature tends to treat the trade balance gdp ratio as a single variable we include exports and imports as separate variables this allows us to track in more detail the sources of trade balance movements further we use annual rather than quarterly data this facilitates the interpretation of the shocks and reduces potential anticipation effects of fiscal policy changes however the identification assumptions become stronger and we extensively check their validity according to our baseline estimate a 1 gdp increase in public spending produces a 1 2 on impact with a 1 6 peak rise in gdp rising imports and falling exports are responsible for a fall of the trade balance by 0 5 of gdp on impact and a peak fall of 0 8 in addition the spending increase produces a 0 7 impact and peak budget deficit thereby pointing to the potential relevance of the twin deficits hypothesis for the european union jel e62 h60

performance of wholesale electricity markets with high wind penetration abstract this paper examines the impact of progressively deeper levels of wind generation and or abatement on the performance of a wholesale market and its incumbent thermal generators with non convex unit commitment constraints comparison is made to the result that marginal cost pricing should induce investors to build the least cost capacity mix since it is not clear that this will hold in renewable rich systems it is first found that unit commitment and forecast uncertainty do not cause significant departure from this result when the generator fleet is optimal optimality in this sense is determined in a capacity expansion problem that does not feature unit commitment and which allows thermal generators to be built or retired as greater renewable generation or abatement is mandated in contrast the wholesale market with no retirement of thermal generation experiences progressively greater disparity between total system prices and costs and lower returns to generators simply due to over capacity rather than any form of variability related market failure a carbon price is observed to be far superior to a renewable portfolio standard when the existing set of thermal generators do not retire but this difference is less stark when the generation mix is optimal the implications of these results for market design and system planning are then discussed

the output employment and interest rate effects of government consumption abstract we study the impact on aggregate variables of changes in government consumption using the neoclassical stochastic growth model we show theoretically that the impact on output and employment of a persistent change in government consumption exceeds that of a temporary change we also show that in principle there can be an analog to the keynesian multiplier in the neoclassical growth model finally in an empirically plausible version of the model we show that the interest rate impact of a persistent government consumption shock exceeds that of a temporary one our results provide counterexamples to existing claims in the literature

wholesale marginal prices in competitive generation markets wholesale marginal electricity prices are being used in several actual competitive generation markets worldwide both to remunerate generators and to charge consumption these prices must account not only for energy but also for guarantee of supply in the long and the short term this paper a provides a sound conceptual and quantitative foundation for wholesale pricing based on generation services where any existing restrictions in operation or planning in real power markets are accounted for b clearly establishes the relationship between short term marginal costs long term marginal costs and optimal wholesale electricity prices and c identifies the reasons for mismatches in cost recovery with marginal generation prices the theoretical results are verified with a detailed realistic power system model

balancing solar pv deployment and rd d a comprehensive framework for managing innovation uncertainty in electricity technology investment planning abstract we present a new framework for studying the socially optimal level of generating capacity and public rd d investments for the electric power sector under decision dependent technical change uncertainty we construct a bottom up stochastic electricity generation capacity expansion model with uncertain endogenous rd d based technical change focusing on solar pv rd d investment planning for its current prominent role in sustainable energy and climate policy deliberations we characterize the decision dependent process of technical change uncertainty as unknown outcomes of rd d investments that increase the likelihood of success with increasing amounts of rd d and calibrate to a novel expert elicitation dataset that accounts for this decision dependence the problem is framed as a multi stage decision under uncertainty where the decision maker learns and adapts to new information between decision periods specifically our application considers four decision stages with the decision maker choosing investment levels for new capacity and solar pv rd d while learning about rd d outcomes that can reduce solar pv costs between each stage the problem is thus formulated to match the manner in which real world decisions about rd d investments in renewable energy are made and avoids common assumptions of perfect foresight or uncertainty but no learning that are often used in practice numerical results show that when uncertainty and learning features are both included the optimal solar pv rd d investment strategy changes from solutions using other methods considering uncertainty and learning results in solar rd d investment differences as high as 20 percent lower in the first stage and 300 percent higher in later stages we also show that when uncertainty is considered without learning the fraction of new solar pv capacity investments can be depressed overall this paper shows that it is possible to unify several realistic features of the deployment and development problem for the electricity sector to meet sustainability goals into one framework

deposit insurance and financial development the authors examine the effect of different design features of deposit insurance on long run financial development defined to include the level of financial activity the stability of the banking sector and the quality of resource allocation their empirical analysis is guided by recent theories of banking regulation that employ an agency framework the authors examine the effect of deposit insurance on the size and volatility of the financial sector in a sample of fifty eight countries they find that generous deposit insurance leads to financial instability in lax regulatory environments but in sound regulatory environments deposit insurance does have the desired impact on financial development and growth thus countries introducing a deposit insurance scheme need to ensure that it is accompanied by a sound regulatory framework otherwise the scheme will likely lead to instability and deter financial development in weak regulatory environments policymakers should at least limit deposit insurance coverage

can government purchases stimulate the economy this essay briefly reviews the state of knowledge about the government spending multiplier drawing on theoretical work aggregate empirical estimates from the united states as well as cross locality estimates i assess the likely range of multiplier values for the experiment most relevant to the stimulus package debate a temporary deficit financed increase in government purchases i conclude that the multiplier for this type of spending is probably between 0 8 and 1 5 jel e23 e62 h50

ten years after the financial crisis what have we learned from the renaissance in fiscal research author s ramey valerie a abstract this paper takes stock of what we have learned from the renaissance in fiscal research in the ten years since the financial crisis i first discuss the new innovations in methodology and various strengths and weaknesses of the main approaches to estimating fiscal multipliers reviewing the estimates i come to the surprising conclusion that the bulk of the estimates for average spending and tax change multipliers lie in a fairly narrow range 0 6 to 1 for spending multipliers and 2 to 3 for tax change multipliers however i identify economic circumstances in which multipliers lie outside those ranges finally i review the debate on whether multipliers were higher for the 2009 obama stimulus spending in the united states or for fiscal consolidations in europe

what are the effects of fiscal policy shocks we propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions specifically we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue shock as well as a government spending shock while controlling for a generic business cycle shock and a monetary policy shock we explicitly allow for the possibility of announcement effects i e that a current fiscal policy shock changes fiscal policy variables in the future but not at present we construct the impulse responses to three linear combinations of these fiscal shocks corresponding to the three scenarios of deficit spending deficit financed tax cuts and a balanced budget spending expansion we apply the method to us quarterly data from 1955 to 2000 we find that deficit financed tax cuts work best among these three scenarios to improve gdp with a maximal present value multiplier of five dollars of total additional gdp per each dollar of the total cut in government revenue 5 years after the shock copyright 2009 john wiley sons ltd

unemployment fiscal multipliers we estimate the effects of fiscal policy on the labor market in us data an increase in government spending of 1 percent of gdp generates output and unemployment multipliers respectively of about 1 2 percent at one year and 0 6 percentage points at the peak each percentage point increase in gdp produces an increase in employment of about 1 3 million jobs total hours employment and the job finding probability all rise whereas the separation rate falls a standard neoclassical model augmented with search and matching frictions in the labor market largely fails in reproducing the size of the output multiplier whereas it can produce a realistic unemployment multiplier but only under a special parameterization extending the model to strengthen the complementarity in preferences to include unemployment benefits real wage rigidity and or debt financing with distortionary taxation only worsens the picture new keynesian features only marginally magnify the size of the multipliers when complementarity is coupled with price stickiness however the magnification effect can be large

the effects of government purchases shocks review and estimates for the eu in this article we review the theoretical consequences of government purchases shocks for both closed and open economies followed by a discussion of the empirical literature next we provide our own estimates for the eu countries we find that an increase in government purchases raises output consumption and investment and reduces the trade balance however the stimulating effect is weaker and the trade balance reduction is larger for the more open eu economies consistent with larger leakage effects further we show that government purchases shocks in large eu economies have non negligible consequences for economic activity in the main trading partners

electricity market clearing prices and investment incentives the role of pricing rules abstract pricing rules in wholesale electricity markets are usually classified around two major groups namely linear aka non discriminatory and non linear aka discriminatory as well known the major difference lies on the way non convexities are considered in the computation of market prices according to the classical marginal pricing theories the resulting market prices are supposed to serve as the key signals around which capacity expansion revolves thus the implementation of one or the other pricing rule can have a different effect on the investment incentives perceived by generation technologies affecting the long term efficiency of the whole market scheme the objective of this paper is to assess to what extent long term investment incentives can be affected by the pricing rule implemented to do so we propose a long term capacity expansion model where investment decisions are taken based on the market remuneration we use the model to determine the optimal mix in a real size thermal system with high penetration of renewable energy sources since its intermittency enhances the relevance of non convexities when alternatively considering the aforementioned pricing schemes

income effects and paradoxes in the theory of international trade every field in economics has its paradoxes phenomena which initially are thought to confound economic sense but ultimately come to be better understood the field of international trade can claim its fair share the examples of the metzler paradox wherein a tariff fails to provide protection or that of immerising growth wherein a country suffers a loss in welfare despite an improvement in production possibilities come easily to mind more recently a reexamination of the transfer problem in the context of many country trade or of tax distortions has revealed possibilities for donor countries to gain or transfer recipients to lose results which would be considered so paradoxical in standard treatments as to be ruled out by stability arguments behind each of the examples just cited lies a rational explanation in which income effects prove crucial in supporting a paradoxical outcome in some situations the potential for paradox rests on the possibility of income redistribution nationally or internationally when tastes differ among the various trading participants paradox becomes impossible if tastes at the margin are identical in other instances income redistribution is not the crucial mechanism and paradoxical outcomes may occur even if all traders possess the same taste patterns all cases share the property that paradoxes can arise only if the terms of trade are sufficiently disturbed substitution effects high values of which serve to dampen the required adjustment of prices to a market disturbance thus work to prevent paradoxical outcomes in the first section of this paper i focus on those issues for which income effects are associated with income redistribution especially the analysis of tariffs and transfers in markets that initially are free of taxes or other distortions in the second section i analyse an issue for which income redistribution is no longer the central ingredient the welfare consequences of growth a standard technique in game theory allows for a reinterpretation of the growth case to reveal the fundamental connection between a wide variety of standard two country results in the theory of international trade and the possibility of paradoxes in the three agent transfer problem i would therefore argue that the three agent transfer literature has wider applicability than is commonly perceived in the final section i analyse briefly the frequently encountered argument that some instances of paradoxical welfare loss can be avoided by optimal tariff policy i wish to thank isaias coelho for helpful conversations makoto yano for stimulating my interest in the transfer problem with many agents and j peter neary for comments on an earlier draft useful suggestions were also received at seminar presentations at the institute for international economic studies in stockholm and the london school of economics research support was provided by the national science foundation grants ses 78o6159 and ses 8309386 i the role of substitution effects in transfer paradoxes with more than two commodities and agents is discussed by de meza 1983

fiscal policy in general equilibrium this paper studies four classic fiscal policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model the authors main findings are as follows 1 permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short run and long run output multipliers that exceed one 2 permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes 3 the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases and 4 public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment these findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy copyright 1993 by american economic association

fiscal shocks and their consequences this paper investigates the response of hours worked and real wages to fiscal policy shocks in the post world war ii us we identify these shocks with exogenous changes in military purchases and argue that they lead to a persistent increase in government purchases and tax rates on capital and labor income and a persistent rise in aggregate hours worked as well as declines in real wages the shocks are also associated with short lived rises in aggregate investment and small movements in private consumption we describe and implement a methodology for assessing whether standard neoclassical models can account for the consequences of a fiscal policy shock simple versions of the neoclassical model can account for the qualitative effects of a fiscal shock once we allow for habit formation and investment adjustment costs the model can also account reasonably well for the quantitative effects of a fiscal shock

an empirical analysis of the revival of fiscal activism in the 2000s an empirical review of the three fiscal stimulus packages of the 2000s shows that they had little if any direct impact on consumption or government purchases households largely saved the transfers and tax rebates the federal government only increased purchases by a small amount state and local governments saved their stimulus grants and shifted spending away from purchases to transfers counterfactual simulations show that the stimulus induced decrease in state and local government purchases was larger than the increase in federal purchases simulations also show that a larger stimulus package with the same design as the 2009 stimulus would not have increased government purchases or consumption by a larger amount these results raise doubts about the efficacy of such packages adding weight to similar assessments reached more than thirty years ago jel e21 e23 e32 e62 h50

u s war costs two parts temporary one part permanent military spending fatalities and the destruction of capital all of which are immediately felt and are often large are the most overt costs of war they are also relatively short lived but the costs of war borne by combatants and their caretakers which includes families communities and the modern welfare state tend instead to be lifelong in this paper i show that a significant component of the budgetary costs associated with u s wars is long lived one third to one half of the total present value of historical war costs are benefits distributed over the remaining life spans of veterans and their dependents even thirty years after the end of hostilities typically half of all benefits remain to be paid estimates of the costs of injuries and deaths suggest that the private burden of war borne by survivors namely the uncompensated costs of service related injuries are also large and long lived

the output effect of fiscal consolidation plans abstract we show that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the simulation of a multi year fiscal plan rather than of individual fiscal shocks simulation of fiscal plans adopted by 16 oecd countries over a 30 year period supports the hypothesis that the effects of consolidations depend on their design fiscal adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly in terms of output losses than tax based ones and have especially low output costs when they consist of permanent rather than stop and go changes in taxes and spending the difference between tax based and spending based adjustments appears not to be explained by accompanying policies including monetary policy it is mainly due to the different responses of business confidence and private investment

co movements in relative commodity prices and international capital flows a simple model co movements in relative commodity prices and international capital flows a simple model suppose a number of countries produce a commodity which employs local labor and a type of capital that is internationally mobile within the framework of a specific factors model the paper argues that there is a presumption about the international movement of capital when the relative price of the industry using that capital rises on world markets capital flows towards countries less heavily involved in producing the commodity internal labor flows contribute towards worldwide industry dispersion and the volume of international trade in that commodity tends to fall i introduction fluctuations in the composition of world demand may cause a particular commodity to experience periods during which price is high relative to other commodities to alternate with periods during which price is relatively low a number of countries may share not only in the production of such a commodity but also in the use of some factor call it capital specific to its production but capable of being relocated from one country to another that is some productive activities may combine local factors with inputs that have international markets what can be said about the location of internationally mobile capital as shifts in demand result in changes in relative commodity prices is there anything systematic about the likely degree of international concentration or diversification of production over periods in which a commodity s price is alternatively high and low the purpose of this article is to sketch out a simple model in which a presumption does exist about the location of internationally mobile capital the relative concentration of production and the volume of international trade in a commodity during the course of a cycle in its price relative to the prices of other commodities the model is a variant of the sector specific general equilibrum production model in which one type of capital is internationally mobile so that rates of return remain equalized among countries the presumption is that when a commodity s price is relatively high compared with other commodities real capital specifically used to produce that commodity tends to leave regions that are relatively large producers furthermore this tendency of international capital mobility to encourage a dispersion of world production when a commodity s price is relatively high and a concentration of the world s production when price is low is enhanced by the mobility within each country of factors used jointly with other sectors finally international trade in a commodity experiencing such a price cycle tends to be second best compared with own production in the sense that the volume of trade tends to contract precisely when the commodity s price is high relative to other commodities ii the presumption about international capital flows production structures within countries are assumed to follow the sector specific model as described in jones 1975 mobile labor is combined with each of several types of specific capital goods in producing outputs in one activity capital is assumed to be internationally mobile although retaining its sectoral specificity such mobility serves to equalize the return to this factor in all areas in which it is employed although commodities are traded technologies and factor endowments are not assumed to be the same so the returns to local specific factors and national wage rates can differ from country to country although the argument can be posed in the context of a many country trading world the logic is more easily revealed in a two country setting suppose both home and foreign countries each produce a number of traded commodities and one of these say x1 makes use of a specific factor say k1 which is mobile internationally such mobility ensures that the rental on type 1 capital at home r1 is kept in line with the foreign return r1

fiscal policy and occupational employment dynamics we document substantial heterogeneity in occupational employment dynamics in response to government spending shocks in the united states employment rises most strongly in service sales and office pink collar occupations by contrast employment in blue collar occupations is hardly affected by fiscal policy we provide evidence that occupation specific changes in labor demand are key for understanding these findings we develop a business cycle model that explains the heterogeneous occupational employment dynamics as a consequence of composition effects due to heterogeneous employment changes across industries and occupation specific within industry employment shifts due to differences in the short run substitutability between labor and capital services across occupations