democracy creeping socialism and ideological socialism in rent seeking societies rent seeking societies suffer from a serious distortion of incentives incentives to engage in distributional struggles to seek contrived transfers are strong but incentives to engage in productive work are too weak stagnation and some unemployment should be expected long lasting democracies within unchanged borders create a permissive environment for rent seeking the provision of rents very much depends on government the stronger the governmental involvement in the economy the higher social security spending the more rents the government is likely to generate therefore creeping socialism understood as increased government control of the economy should reinforce the rent seeking society and the corresponding negative effects on growth and employment whether such creeping socialism is backed by ideological socialism or not should make little difference for growth or employment these ideas have been tested and partially supported by a 19 nation sample of industrial democracies using data from the sixties and seventies by and large the rent seeking approach is fairly successful in explaining national differences in economic growth rates but receives ambiguous support or less for unemployment olson s 1982 1983 proposition about the negative impact of long lasting democracy within unchanged borders on economic growth is much better supported than the growth retarding effects of government revenues or social security spending are

the optimal lag selection and transfer function analysis in granger causality tests abstract the conventional selection of lag lengths through the final prediction error criterion is shown to be inadequate in the test of granger causality in this paper lag terms are selected optimally in the most efficient forecast equations that are obtained from univariate and transfer function analyses the reduction in the forecasting error variances from the two analyses is used to test granger causality the new procedure is applied to test for the causality between the industrial production and the leading indicator and that between the consumer price index and the producer price index in the united states

the empirical relationship between money prices and income revisited this article investigates the relationship between sum divisia and monetary velocity money prices and income using the notion of granger 1969 causality this is achieved by evaluating empirically using dickey fuller unit root tests whether the macroeconomic time series under consideration are trend stationary or difference stationary and by conducting tests using three different ad hoc lag lengths 8 6 and 4 quarters as well as a statistically determined using akaike s 1969a b final prediction error criterion lag structure

tests of a rational theory of the size of government in many countries the political party holding power changes more frequently than the trend growth rates in government spending and taxes shifts of political power are often preceded by rhetoric about meeting needs or cutting taxes which post election performances rarely match yet changes in the size of government up and down occur on average the size of government measured by the share of taxes or spending to output has increased in many countries during the past century but changes in size occur at diffrent rates and at times the relative size of government declines

expenditures and receipts testing for causality in state and local government finances the results of our tests indicate similarities between the expenditure tax receipt relations of state governments to those previously reported for the federal government in manage and marlow 1986 the results reported here indicate support for the hypothesis that tax receipts cause expenditures at the state level of government for tests utilizing symmetric lag structures ranging from three to five years state expenditures appear to follow state tax receipts for the shortest lag length 2 2 the determination of bidirectional causality does not make us reject the hypothesis that higher spending levels result from higher revenue levels rather the causality appears to be in both directions for the shortest lag length

a new test of money income causality this paper investigates the prima facie causal relationship between money and income employing a methodology the multiple rank f test the results of which are invariant to monotonic transformations of all variables and robust over alternative distributions of the errors in contrast to prior functional form dependent parametric analyses evidence of prima facie causality between money and income is found for the 1970 88 time period this evidence is consistent with an elementary theoretical framework in which the direction and strength of causality is dependent upon the definition of money copyright 1992 by ohio state university press

responsible entrepreneurship in developing countries understanding the realities and complexities developing countries have recently experienced a burgeoning of small scale individual entrepreneurs sies who range from petty traders to personal service workers like small street vendors barbers and owners of small shops as a result of market based reforms rapid urbanisation unemployment landlessness and poverty while sies form a major part of the informal workforce in developing countries and contribute significantly to economic growth their potential is being undermined when they engage in irresponsible and deceptive business practices such as overpricing sale of underweight or substandard products or attempts to hoard goods to name a few despite the growing interest in corporate social responsibility csr initiatives of small businesses in developing countries the sies have received almost no attention to address this void in the literature we explore the reasons for the less than optimal level of social responsibility demonstrated by some sies in developing countries we do so by drawing upon the existing literature to develop a comprehensive framework of social responsibility of sies highlighting their unique characteristics and the different contextual factors that they encounter in developing countries based on this framework we then present a set of propositions specifying the influence of these contextual factors such as business environment cultural traditions socio economic conditions and both international and domestic pressures on the business practices of sies the framework offers an explanation for the lack of responsible entrepreneurship of sies and has important implications for promoting sustainable business practices in developing countries where businesses are striving hard to survive and compete

the short run demand for money a reconsideration the partial adjustment approach to the specification of the short run demand for money has dominated the literature for more than a decade there are three basic problems with this approach first the same lag structure is imposed on all variables and each independent variable enters only as a current value in contrast a rational individual would respond to different variables income interest rates prices with quite different lags second when the general price levelis subject to gradual adjustment hut can move quickly in response to supply shocks the influence of these supply shocks should enter with a negative sign third the estimated equation for real balances may not be a money demand equation at all but rather its coefficients may represent a shifting mixture of demand and supply responses the empirical work examines several alternative dynamic specifications including a generalized partial adjustment framework and the error correction model both of the latter specifications exhibit greater structural stability after 1973 than the standard partial adjustment specification and the generalized partial adjustment model also yields relatively small errors in post sample dynamic simulations shifts in coefficients as the sample period is extended after 1973 are consistent with the interpretation that the real balance equation no longer traces out structural demand parameters hut rather a mixture of demand and supply responses this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

forecasting wheat exports do exchange rates matter a vector autoregression is fit to recent u s data on wheat prices wheat export sales wheat export shipments and exchange rates forecast error decompositions and out of sample forecasts indicate that exchange rates have little influence on wheat sales and shipments

some evidence on selecting an intermediate target for monetary policy the purpose of monetary policy is to influence the evolution of the economy this influence may be expressed in the oft heard phrases of reducing inflation promoting real economic growth and lowering unemployment these are the goals of policy action how are these goals to be achieved the federal reserve is limited in its power in that there are only a few policy vehicles over which it exercises dominance although the main policy instrument of the fed has differed over time during the past few decades fed policy has been exerted primarily through its control of the banking system s reserves via open market operations the difficulty faced by the policymaker is to know just what effect the changes in the instruments are having on the economy since data on the goal variables generally are received with a lag it is useful to find an intermediate variable that is more timely in its availability and that acts as a good proxy for the goal variable in other words changes in the intermediate variable should reliably predict changes in the goal measure if however a measure is unduly influenced by the goal variable then its usefulness in policy decisions is diminished greatly this is because movements in the intermediate measure might emanate from policy actions from changes in the goal measure or both for a measure to be useful as an intermediate target therefore it should have the feature of being exogenous or causally prior to the goal variable in addition to having minimal feedback from the goal measure the intermediate target measure also should respond predictably to changes in the direction of policy for example an intermediate target that responds randomly to changes in the policy instrument

state responses to fiscal crises the effects of budgetary institutions and politics this paper explores the dynamics of state taxes and spending during the late 1980s when regional economic downturns and increased expenditure demands led to substantial state budget deficits more restrictive state fiscal institutions such as no deficit carryover rules and tax and expenditure limitations are correlated with more rapid fiscal adjustment to unexpected deficits political factors are also important when a single party controls the state house and the governorship deficit adjustment is much faster than when party control is divided in gubernatorial election years tax increases and spending cuts are both significantly smaller than at other times

fostering responsible communities a community social marketing approach to sustainable living just as socially irresponsible organizational behavior leaves a punitive legacy on society socially responsible organizations can foster curative change this article examines whether small organizations can foster societal change toward more sustainable modes of living we contend that consumption is deeply intertwined with social relations and norms thus making individual behavioral change toward sustainability a matter of facilitating change in individual behavior as well as in social norms and relations between organizations and consumers we argue that it is in this facilitation process that small firms can play a major role by adopting upstream and downstream approaches to diffuse behavioral change by synthesizing four key strands of literature small businesses and corporate social responsibility ethical consumption community social marketing and the diffusion of innovation and using the exemplar case of modbury the iconic plastic bag free town we demonstrate how responsible small firms can influence communities and the individuals therein to encourage environmentally sustainable practice to diffuse and support change in society

financial report readability and stock return synchronicity in this study we investigate the impact of firm specific information processing cost proxied by annual report readability on investors firm specific information usage proxied by firm stock ret

money inflation and causality in a financially repressed economy algeria 1970 88 the objective of the paper is to replicate tests identifying the line of causality between the money supply and the rate of inflation using algerian date for the period 1970 88 and provide new evidence for a developing economy the methodology adopted is that of granger and the results show that there is a very strong relationship between the money supply and the rate of inflation with the line of causation being unidirectional that is from the money supply to inflation with no feedback effects

reexamining intraday simultaneity in stock index futures markets abstract this note examines three empirical examples involving intraday dynamic relationships associated with stock index futures markets researchers often employ a vector autoregressive var model to analyze such high frequency transactions data while such a model can provide useful information regarding the nature of causal priority inherent in the data it is not the proper model to investigate the structural relationships of interest because it omits the contemporaneous interaction on the other hand a var model specification which is altered to incorporate simultaneity may enable the data to reveal the structural relationships of interest

lag length selection and tests of granger causality between money and income one of the most widely accepred relationships in macroeconomics is the positive relationship between the rate of growth of the money supply and the rate of growth of income a diversity of opinion arises however with the attempt to identify a causal relationship between these variables while friedman and schwartz 1963 initiated the empirical investigation of money income causality sims 1972 made the most significant contribution to this literature with a practical application of the criterion developed by granger 1969 for identifying a causal relationship since the appearance of sims s approach and an alternative one advanced by sargent 1976 many researchers have applied these techniques to the investigation of the causal relationship between money and income l with two exceptions hsiao 1981 and mcmillin and fackler 1984 these researchers have arbitrarily chosen the lengths of their distributed lags the purpose of this paper is to test for granger causality between money and income this paper differs from previous work in that considerably more attention is focused on the effect of the lag specification on the test results in particular we investigate the extent to which rules of thumb arbitrary lag specifications and

monetary policy and the informational efficiency of the stock market the evidence from many countries 1987 monetary policy and the informational efficiency of the stock market the evidence from many countries applied economics vol 19 no 11 pp 1521 1532

money and disaggregate supply in the united states 1950 1982 the impact of money growth and money growth surprises on real output by sector is investigated it is shown that money provides a significant contribution to the explanation of the real output cycles in almost all sectors of the u s economy anticipated money is found to have real effects though there is some evidence that the real impact of money surprises is larger

a comparison of lag length selection techniques in tests of granger causality between money growth and inflation evidence for the us 1959 86 this paper employs the granger test to examine the causal relationship between growth in the money supply and inflation for the us over the period 1959 to 1986 alternative procedures including bo

an econometric test of wagner s law for six countries based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques the present study empirically examined five different versions of wagner s law by employing annual time series data on six countries over the period 1951 1996 three countries are part of the emerging industrialized countries of asia south korea taiwan thailand and three are industrialized countries japan usa and the united kingdom the analysis is an advance over previous work in two ways first the stationarity propertities of the data and the order of integration of the data are empirically investigated using the augmented dickey fuller adf and the kwiatkowski et al journal of econometrics 1 1992 kpss tests and second the hypothesis of a long run relationship between income and government spending is tested using bivariate cointegrated systems and employing the methodology of cointegration analysis as suggested by johansen journal of economic dynamics and control 12 1988 and johansen and juselius oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 52 1990 the results indicate that

causality between export growth and industrial development empirical evidence from the nics a comment abstract in a recent article chow 1987 argued that his empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that export growth causes industrial development in this comment i point out several serious shortcomings of chow s analysis

the institutional and political factors which influence taxation the ability of politicians to concentrate the benefits of spending while dispersing the costs of taxation makes taxation attractive distributive politics but the degree to which it is attractive varies widely among the states the objective of the research was to develop a fully specified model of per capita tax revenues of state governments not state plus local and thereby identify the political and institutional factors which cause the attractiveness of taxation to vary the resulting model includes 17 significant explanatory variables which together account for all but 10 of the variation in per capita tax revenue thirteen of the significant variables are institutional or political factors thus providing decisionmakers specific options for influencing the future size of government

a critique on the effectiveness of tax expenditure limitations the principal purpose of this study is to investigate the probable impact of tax and spending limitations on tax burdens and state expenditures this is accomplished via a systematic evaluation of the alternative proposals associated with tax limitation legislation in particular this paper analyzes the linking of state public sector growth to inflation limiting tax burdens to a percent of personal income the inclusion of escape clauses in the enabling legislation and the evolution of these tax limitations into legalized minimums

assessing social capital small and medium sized enterprises in germany and the u k social capital can be considered to be the product of co operationbetween various institutions networks and business partners it haspotential as a useful tool for business ethics in this article weidentify categories pertinent to the measurement of social capital insmall and medium sized enterprises smes by drawing on three differentsectors one business to business service one business to customerservice and one manufacturing we have enabled the consideration ofsectoral differences we find sector to play an important part inrelation to business practices and social capital our inclusion of smesfrom germany and the united kingdom has called attention to cultural institutional and economic aspects of two regions of europe and how theycan influence sme social capital social capital is found to beinfluenced by context and in particular institutional arrangements inanalysing the data we note particular areas of interest from the pointof view of smes and social capital as being formal engagement networking within sectors networking across sectors volunteerism andgiving to charity and finally a focus on why people engage we concludethat there is a considerable amount of further research needed on socialcapital sme s and business ethics

the asian financial crisis the role of derivative securities trading and foreign investors in korea abstract this paper is part of a larger research program pertaining to the role of derivatives during financial crisis and also part of the research pertaining to the causes of the asian financial crisis the korean market is studied because of two reasons 1 it is an important example of the asian financial meltdown and 2 there is a detailed data set available of all transactions by different types of protagonists including foreign investors the results in this paper indicate that futures markets and trading by foreign investors played a key role during the korean stock market turbulence in 1997

the relationship between on budget and off budget government abstract this paper studies the hypothesis that controls on on budget government spending leads to greater off budget activity existence of a substitution effect suggests that our ability to control and measure the size of government is more difficult than previously thought

financial development and economic growth the case of taiwan this paper examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in taiwan from 1962 to 1998 using a four variable var model the competing hypotheses of demand following versus supply leading are empirically tested the results from granger causality tests based on vector error correction models vecm suggest unidirectional causality running from financial development measured as the ratio of m2 to gdp to economic growth this result supports the supply leading hypothesis for taiwan this finding highlights the importance of financial development in taiwan s recent growth

money and monetization in china s economic reform in addition to privatization marketization liberalization and pragmatization monetization has been argued as the fifth feature in china s economic reform if monetization is taken to mean a process through which variations in money supply or interest rate are to affect macroeconomic variables the construction of four causality relationships between interest rate and investment and money and national income do not support the evidence of such a process in china between the late 1970s and early 1990s

friedman s velocity hypothesis abstract the purpose of this note is to report tests of friedman s velocity hypothesis that money growth volatility affects velocity in the case of france the evidence provides some additional support for this hypothesis however the evidence is less clear out than the one found in studies of other industrial countries

expenditures and receipts in state and local government finances comment the aim of this note has been to show that marlow and manage s 1987 paper suffers from serious methodological problems due to the non stationary data series used and the arbitrary lag lengths employed use of appropriate stationarity tests and optimal lag lengths of the variables change some of the basic conclusions of their paper contrary to their suggestion the presence of a feedback between local tax receipts and expenditures imply that local governments should be concerned with the implication of their spending and revenue enhancing decisions on their budget decisions to increase current expenditures may lead to higher future taxes similarly efforts to impose higher taxes to reduce budget deficits at the local government level may be futile due to a subsequent increase in spending

controlling leviathan through tax reduction our paper seeks the strategy that allows the greatest ability to reduce public sector size within a political environment that does not want us to directly set limits on public sector size tax reduction through its quid pro quo effect offers high tangibility to taxpayers and may raise political power of groups that seek both tax reduction and greater opposition to lobbies that seek spending increases for their narrowly defined interests moreover as manage and marlow 1986 argues since the political response to balanced budget rules is likely to raise taxes this political bias of tax hikes suggests that balanced budget rules are offered as a means of changing the funding mix and not the actual budget constraint of government

are energy prices cyclical abstract conventional analysis implies that energy price declines from 1981 to 1983 were caused by the world recession the alternative view presented in this paper is that these declines arose largely in response to changes in us energy policy and were not due to the business cycle after developing the theoretical conditions for cyclical prices in various oil and energy markets we examine us macroeconomic data 1947 1980 to test these competing views we conclude that declining oil and energy prices are not a business cycle phenomenon indeed the evidence offers support for the reverse causation that energy prices cause business cycles

the political process and the use of debt financing by state governments empirical evidence offered in this study suggests that decisions by state government officials to effect debt financed spending depend in part on the state s gubernatorial election cycle more specifically the results reveal relative increases in state debt issues in anticipation of elections and furthermore they reveal that such increases are more significant for states characterized by high interparty political competition while theoretical limitations preclude a definitive explanation for these results the evidence is consistent with a view of state political markets where incumbent parties manipulate public policy so as to enhance the probability of success in pending elections this insight is significant in that it suggests a relationship between public policy decisions and election cycles in a context heretofore unexplored

causality analysis and multivariate autoregressive modelling with an application to supermarket sales analysis abstract this paper describes a modelling methodology for multivariate stochastic processes the concept of multiple causality is discussed and a procedure to detect multiple causality is suggested the data of a major canadian supermarket is analyzed and a multivariate autoregressive model for this supermarket is constructed and estimated several empirical findings are reported

some evidence on the effect of the separation of spending and taxing decisions it is often argued that separation of public spending and taxing decisions engenders in the voter overoptimistic hopes that someone else will bear the cost of public services thereby inducing an increase in the size of government but are perceived tax prices systematically and persistently reduced by separation although in stock markets all agents expectations may be unbiased they may or may not be unbiased in political markets this paper analyzes the separation created in federal states when the central government finances local expenditures evidence from a dynamic decisive voter model is presented that indicates that the separation introduced by federal grants to canadian provinces did in fact reduce the perceived tax price of provincial public services and raise provincial expenditures the results suggest also that the effect of separation diminished over time

off budget activities of local government comment bennett and dilorenzo have provided evidence that limitations on taxes and spending induce a proliferation of special purpose local government they conclude that the effects on spending were less than originally supposed whatever the effects on total spending a very important effect on the limitations is an induced change in the fiscal constitution of local government using a public choice approach this institutional change was found to have certain desirable features

autoregressive modelling and money income causality detection abstract a step wise procedure based on granger s concept of causality and abaike s final prediction error criterion is suggested as a practical means to identify the order of lags of each variable in a multivariate autoregressive process the model seems useful because it can serve as a reduced form formulation to avoid imposing often spurious or false restrictions of the model it also provides a reasonably powerful test of causality the idea is applied to u s postwar money and income data it is found that between m1 and gnp a bivariate feedback model fits the data best between m2 and gnp a one way causal model from money to income performs better diagnostic checks applied to our model seem to indicate the adequacy of our approach

analyst coverage and stock return synchronicity evidence from regulation changes in china s ipo market abstractthis article investigates the relation between analyst coverage and stock return synchronicity in the ipo market using a unique data set in china from 2005 to 2012 we find a significantly different effect of analyst coverage on synchronicity before and after the implementation of important 2009 ipo regulation changes in china specifically we document that analyst coverage reduces synchronicity but that this effect is significant only after 2009 in addition we extend this research to further distinguish the information production role of underwriter and independent analysts we find that prior to 2009 underwriter analysts coverage decreases synchronicity but independent analysts coverage does not however in the post 2009 period both types of analyst coverage are significantly and inversely associated with synchronicity overall our results support analysts role as producers of firm specific information in an emerging ipo market and shows that this role depends on the institutional env

social and symbolic capital and responsible entrepreneurship an empirical investigation of sme narratives this paper investigates links between social capital and symbolic capital and responsible entrepreneurship in the context of small and medium enterprises smes the source of the primary data was 144 business profiles written by the owner managers of small businesses in application for a small business awards competition in 2005 included in each of these narratives were claims relating to the firms contributions to wider society relationships with customers employees and stakeholders these narratives were coded and classified in a framework drawn from nahapiet and ghoshal s 1998 academy of management review 23 2 242 266 categorisation of social capital the analysis revealed a range of strategic orientations towards the development of social and symbolic capital along a conceptual continuum ranging from being responsible for oneself to being responsible for others overall the evidence demonstrates the significance of the power inherent in the social relations of smes as a force for ethical behaviour and suggests that normative theories of the development of social capital may provide competitive advantage through responsible behaviour for small business in the global economy

opaque financial reports r2 and crash risk abstract we investigate the relation between the transparency of financial statements and the distribution of stock returns using earnings management as a measure of opacity we find that opacity is associated with higher r2s indicating less revelation of firm specific information moreover opaque firms are more prone to stock price crashes consistent with the prediction of the jin and myers 2006 r2 around the world new theory and new tests journal of financial economics 79 257 292 model however these relations seem to have dissipated since the passage of the sarbanes oxley act suggesting that earnings management has decreased or that firms can hide less information in the new regulatory environment

the relevance of stakeholder theory and social capital theory in the context of csr in smes an australian perspective the concept of business responsibility usually termed as corporate social responsibility csr originated in the early 1930s after the wall street crash of 1929 exposed corporate irresponsibility in large organisations the understanding of csr has evolved since then and its scope has now broadened from mere compliance to corporate laws to active alignment of internal business goals with externally set societal aspirations unfortunately the significance of this multidimensional concept within the small and medium enterprise sme sector has continued to be overshadowed by its application in large and multinational organisations more importantly this has led to the practice of judging smes which are experiencing increasing pressure to engage in social activities as if they are no different from their larger counterparts this study therefore investigates csr from the perspective of smes in australia without any theoretical presumptions and then comments on the relevance and applicability of the two theories that have been commonly used to investigate business responsibility namely stakeholder theory st and social capital theory sct the research findings indicate that csr within the sme sector is more aligned to the fundamentals of sct mainly owing to the unique resource and survival challenges that they face and which are arguably not so pronounced in large organisations

causality between dairy farm size and productivity the direction of causality between dairy farm size and productivity is examined for each state using multivariate granger causality tests the results only partially support the view that technological change has caused increases in dairy farm size the direction of causality appears to be more from size to productivity changes in productivity and average herd size appear driven by price changes

causality of u s agricultural prices and the money supply further empirical evidence empirical evidence presented in this study indicates that the results of causality tests of u s agricultural prices and the money supply are sensitive to the lag selection relying on the minimum final prediction error causality testing technique a unidirectional causal flow is established from the monetary base to retail level agricultural prices no such flow is found to exist from m2 to retail agricultural prices when farm level agricultural prices are investigated no causal flow exists from any of the measures of the money supply to farm prices

testing for linear and nonlinear granger causality in the stock price volume relation linear and nonlinear granger causality tests are used to examine the dynamic relation between daily dow jones stock returns and percentage changes in new york stock exchange trading volume we find evidence of significant bidirectional nonlinear causality between returns and volume we also examine whether the nonlinear causality from volume to returns can be explained by volume serving as a proxy for information flow in the stochastic process generating stock return variance as suggested by clark s 1973 latent common factor model after controlling for volatility persistence in returns we continue to find evidence of nonlinear causality from volume to returns

on interest rate innovations and anticipated monetary policy abstract in this note i investigate whether anticipated money matters by following mccallum s 1983 suggestion that nominal interest rates be included in a var system estimated on data spanned by a policy of interest rate targeting the evidence is in favour of gordon s 1982 natural rate hypothesis gradual price adjustent model of policy ineffectiveness ambler and phaneuf 1988 have shown the results can be interpreted as evidence in favour of contract based models of the business cycle

how informed are actively trading institutional investors evidence from their trading behavior before a break in a string of consecutive earnings increases we examine whether transient institutional investors i e institutions that trade actively to maximize short term profits have information that allows them to predict a break in a string of consecutive quarterly earnings increases and thereby avoid the economically significant negative stock price response associated with the break announcement we show that transient institutions predict the break at least one quarter in advance of the break quarter we also provide evidence that is consistent with transient institutions obtaining information regarding the impending break from private communications with management

fiscal illusion and the grantor government empirical studies indicate that unconditional intergovernmental grants have a flypaper effect several authors have modeled recipient government spending under fiscal illusion to explain this phenomenon in short grants reduce the perceived marginal cost of recipient government output this paper develops a more general model of illusion that incorporates the grantor government thereby eliminating inconsistencies encountered in previous models the more general model implies that grant finance increases the perceived marginal cost of grantor government output thus grant induced illusion should have two effects an increase in recipient output and a decrease in grantor output the empirical work supports this hypothesis

energy consumption employment output and temporal causality evidence from taiwan based on cointegration and error correction modelling techniques in this study a cointegration analysis and a vector autoregressive model var are used to examine the causal relationships among energy consumption employment and output for taiwan over the period january 1982 to november 1997 johansen 1988 and johansen and juselius 1990 cointegration test result indicates these three variables are cointegrated with one cointegrating vector the results from granger causality tests based on vector error correction models vecm suggest bidirectional grange causality for employment output and employment energy consumption but only unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to output furthermore the impulse responses and variance decompositions are also incorporated into the analysis the results from impulsive response and variance decomposition analysis tell similar stories energy consumption appears to have led to output growth in taiwan over this period the policy implication of this finding is that energy conservation will restrain the outpu

determinants of the informativeness of analyst research abstract we examine cross sectional determinants of the informativeness of analyst research i e their effect on security prices controlling for endogeneity among the factors affecting informativeness analyst reports are more informative when the potential brokerage profits are higher e g high trading volume high volatility and high institutional ownership and lower when information processing costs e g more business segments are high we also find that the informativeness of analyst research and informativeness of financial statements are complements

policy inference using var models policy inference using var models i introduction macroeconomics has a long tradition of examining the response of macroeconomic variables to shocks in alternative policy measures much recent work in this area has been based on the empirical regularities between variables found in vector autoregressive var models the var results in turn have been used to investigate the impact of changes in different policy variables var modeling procedures have been used to test the relative effects of changes in money interest rates broad credit measures and fiscal actions on economic activity 1 moreover because var analysis does not require the specification of an underlying theoretical model it also has been used to study the linkages among macroeconomic variables across national borders 2 although debate over the alleged atheoretical nature of vars continues for example see cooley and leroy 1985 leamer 1985 and braun and mittnik 1985 var models are frequently used for policy analysis how the dynamic specification of a var model is generated and how the dynamics may influence the resulting policy recommendation is the subject of this study while modeling the dynamic relationship among macro variables is a longstanding subject relatively few studies have tested for the effects of alternative lag structures on a given model to our knowledge there has been little systematic analysis of the sensitivity of policy effects to changes in the lag structure of a given var model 3 in this paper we investigate this specification problem using a simple four variable var model similar in spirit to sims s 1980b 4 this model consists of quarterly observations for money real output prices and nominal short term interest rates for the period 1960 through 1985 in selecting this model we opt to focus on the impacts of lag specification on policy inferences derived from a given var model in doing so we ignore the effects of altering the specification in terms of variables included or excluded this approach seems reasonable however since our purpose is to investigate the effects of lag structure not specification problems in general to compare the policy conclusions derived from the alternative dynamic structures we use six different lag selection criteria these criteria briefly described in section ii vary the bias efficiency tradeoff inherent in such statistical procedures section iii discusses the estimation of the var model using the alternative dynamic structures comparison of policy recommendations derived from the models is presented in section iv using variance decompositions anticipating that discussion the evidence from our model suggests that policy recommendations are very sensitive to changes in the dynamic structure conclusions close the paper in section v ii lag length selection procedures many previous researchers have chosen to impose equal lag lengths on each of the variables in their models 5 this approach produces parameter estimates that may suffer from bias or inefficiency depending on whether the model is under or over parameterized we use six different approaches to determine the lag specification five are based on statistical criteria with the exact criteria listed in table i for comparability we also employ the nonstatistical ad hoc procedure of arbitrarily fixing the maximum lag on all variables to be four quarters one of the statistical approaches used is the standard f test 6 the f test imposes zero restrictions on lags beyond some point and tests this restricted model against a more general lag structure the f statistic is calculated sequentially until adding another lag does not statistically improve the fit of the model two of the selection procedures use a mean squared error criterion these are mallows s 1973 c sub p statistic and akaike s 1970

the causal relation between federal expenditures and receipts federal expenditures have consistently exceeded federal revenues since 1970 in fact the federal government has seen a surplus in only five years since 1950 the symptoms of such fiscal imbalance are of course budget deficits while budget deficits are nothing new in u s history the recent and projected size of the deficit during peacetime nonrecessionary years has been the cause of much concern to academics the news media and politicians this preoccupation with federal deficits has produced a variety of policy proposals to deal with them

tax structure and the size of government an empirical analysis of the fiscal illusion and fiscal stress arguments this study attempts to fulfill a number of objectives one is the possible reconciliation of two divergent strains of thought concerning the size of government fiscal illusion and fiscal stress in this respect the results show little evidence of fiscal illusion but provide support for some of the notions associated with the fiscal stress hypothesis namely the effects of revenue and income variability on the size of government

the firm information environment and capital structure international evidence abstractthis article investigates the effect of the firm information environment characterized by the analyst characteristics on firms capital structure choices and whether this effect varies according to country level institutional environments using a comprehensive international data set that covers 19 939 firms across 41 countries between 2000 and 2010 we document two key findings first firms with lower analyst coverage higher forecast dispersion and higher forecast errors have higher leverage second the effect of the firm information environment on corporate leverage is attenuated in countries with stronger governance mechanism and better information transparency this result suggests that a firm s information environment is an important factor influencing its capital structure decision and that country level institutional environments matter to this effect

beyond the purchasing power parity testing for cointegration and causality between exchange rates prices and interest rates abstract this paper reexamines the causality between the dollar and the yen in a multivariate framework with the aid of cointegration and error correcting modeling for the 1951 94 period the phillips perron tests and johansen s tests are performed while causality from interest rates to exchange rates is found in the short run no causality between prices and exchange rates is found in the short run however causality is found running from relative prices to exchange rates along with interest rates between the u s and japan in the long run which supports the long run ppp hypothesis

interdependencies among the nordic and u s stock markets using the concept of granger causality interdependencies among the stock market indices for four nordic countries and the u s are examined the vector autoregressive model results indicate that the u s market affected only the danish but not the norwegian finnish or swedish markets the swedish market was causally prior to both the norwegian and finnish markets the norwegian danish and finnish markets did not granger cause any other market the results indicate that the nordic stock markets are less than fully integrated

small firms social capital and the enhancement of business performance through innovation programmes the paper explores the extent to which social capital is advantageous to small and medium enterprise sme growth social capital is a communal property involving civic engagement associational membership high trust reliability and reciprocity in social networks it is capable of being identified in social political and economic contexts often associated with strong communities however not all strong communities exert the effects of social capital in respect of business activities this paper assesses government programmes to promote collaboration amongst smes for improving innovation capacity by increasing social capital through networking it shows that for a sizeable proportion of programme funded firms in denmark ireland and wales u k social capital building was associated with enhanced business knowledge and innovation performance of particular importance was the opportunity afforded to firms for linkage with external innovation networks and the build up of embeddedness or the institutional basis for the enhancement of social capital as a consequence of discovering the advantages of social capital over a third of respondents planned to continue to develop it in future in many cases funding such activities privately rather than calling on the public purse

off budget activities of local government the bane of the tax revolt this paper has demonstrated that the tax revolt of the 1970s has not been as successful in reducing the level of state and local government expenditure as preliminary empirical findings indicate and that the rate of increase in state and local public spending is likely to be far greater than previously believed the evidence presented here shows clearly that constitutional and statutory limitations on the taxing and spending powers of local governments have led to a massive amount of off budget spending and borrowing the debt issued by off budget enterprises is larger and growing at a much faster rate than the voter approved debt issued by state and local governments and has been since 1975 thus even though statistics on property taxation and expenditure may indicate a slow down in the growth of local taxation the true cost of local government may continue to increase at previous rates although this is an empirical question which we are not yet able to address off budget enterprises are heavily subsidized by local state and federal governments these subsidies represent a hidden tax liability to present and future generations of taxpayers in addition the debt and expenditures of obes contribute substantially to the crowding out of private spending and investment

the determinants of off budget activity of state and local governments the primary finding of this paper is that the off budget activity of the public sector is significantly and positively related to on budget activity by state and local governments we suggest the following policy implications one there appears to be evidence that the composition of total government activity is related to the relative costs of the alternative avenues of providing governmental activity future research into determining the nature of the relative cost differences may be one useful means of understanding both the composition of government activity as well as its total size two our ability to measure the true size of public sector participation in the economy must go well beyond our attempt here while we have presented information on one of the important hidden elements of public sector participation we are still a long way from effectively incorporating similar data on legislation regulations and so forth into our empirical tests further research into these issues is clearly warranted

velocity and the variability of money growth evidence from granger causality tests note economists and policy makers were caught off guard by the behavior of the income velocity of money in 1982 the velocity of m1 which had grown at a 3 3 percent average annual rate from 1970 1981 fezl by 4 4 percent in 1982 in the fourth quarter of 1982 the decline was 12 6 percent at an annual rate the 1982 decline in velocity significantly reduced nominal gnp growth and may have helped cause the fall in real gnp the 1982 episode has generated quite a bit of controversy the decline in velocity is important not only for its possible relation to real gnp but also because it has led some economists to seriously question monetarism monetarists believe that there is a predictable link between money growth and nominal gnp growth when velocity declined in 1982 that link appeared to have weakened seemingly undermining the monetarist beliefs in fact robert gordon 1983 has called the 1982 episode the velocity recession and the demise of monetarism milton friedman 1984 has stated that the decline in velocity does not undermine monetarism at all he believes that velocity fell because of the extreme volatility of money growth following the announced change in federal reserve operating procedures in october 1979 figure 1 shows the income velocity of m1 v and the standard deviation of current and seven lags of m1 growth s a large increase in the volatility of money growth in 1980 precedes the decline in velocity in 1982 based on this friedman states that the 1982 episode strengthens not weakens the case for the monetarist proposition of a constant growth rule of the money supply this paper uses the granger causality method to test friedman s hypothesis that the volatility of money growth causes velocity to change we conclude that friedman is correct i e the volatility of money measured by the standard deviation of money growth causes velocity in the granger sense in the next section we review some of the recent explanations offered by economists for the 1982 decline in velocity the concluding section presents our results of the granger tests of friedman s hypothesis

tax and spend spend and tax or fiscal synchronization new evidence for ten countries cointegration and vector autoregression are used to test the tax and spend spend and tax and fiscal synchronization for ten countries using annual time series data over the period 1951 to 1996 three of them are part of the newly industrialized countries of asia south korea taiwan and thailand and seven are industrialized countries australia canada japan new zealand south africa uk and the usa this paper includes gdp as a control variable into the model like baghestani and mcnown 1994 ross and payne 1998 and koren and stiassny 1998 the johansen 1988 and johansen and juselius 1990 cointegration test results indicate that these three variables are cointegrated with two cointegrating vectors for south korea one vector for australia canada south africa taiwan uk and the usa and no vector for japan new zealand and thailand the results from granger causality tests suggest unidirectional causality running from revenues to spending supporting the tax and spend hypoth

an analysis of support for tax limitation referenda explanations for recent upsurges in support for tax reduction measures include 1 a desire to reduce the scope of government activity attiyeh and engle 1979 cbs 1978 1 2 a desire to cut taxes independent of changes in government services levy 1975 levy and zamola 1978 critin 1979 3 a dissatisfaction with the incidence of taxation reid 1979 decanio 1979 none of these explanations predicts when dissatisfaction with taxes will be great enough to cause citizens to act the literature suggests several catalysts that may produce or fail to produce a tax revolt first sales and income taxes produce less revolt since there is relatively little awareness of the amount being paid the incidence of the property tax is much more obvious enrick 1963 wagstaff 1965 gensemer 1965 wagner 1976 ordeshook 1979 a second catalyst is the recency of the assessment reassessment ordeshook 1979 argues that people do not compare their tax burdens with the burdens of others or with the level of government services provided they lack information for such an analysis rather taxpayers react when they experience recent and substantial changes in taxes this paper analyzes certain characteristics of people who sign a petition calling for a referendum to impose a tax limit and of their neighborhoods we hypothesize that

another visit to the cagan model of money demand the latest russian experience abstract this paper investigates empirically the cagan style money demand function for russia during the recent hyperinflation era 1992 1994 using the johansen multivariate cointegration test results indicate that rate of change of exchange rate currency depreciation is required in the demand function for real m2 and real currency in order to obtain a stationary long run relationship error correction model results show that there exists a bidirectional causality between real money balances and determinants of real money demand including currency depreciation exchange rate sensitivity of the demand for money indicates currency substitution

tax structure and public sector growth abstract it has been hypothesized that a jurisdiction s tax structure exerts an indipendent effect upon the growth of its public sector we test this hypothesis by examining the relationship between the growth of state general expenditure and the elasticity of tax revenues with respect to income the work takes advantage of a very careful set of income elasticities for the personal income and sales tax systems for each state for every year from 1978 to 1983 the main conclusion is that the data do not support the notion that the form of the tax structure exerts an independent effect on public sector growth

the politics and economics of the new city debt his paper contrasts nonguaranteed city debt with taxation and general obligation debt drawing upon bureau of the census advisory commission on intergovernmental relations acir and municipal year book data the analysis shows that both per capita tax revenue and outstanding general obligation debt are best explained by background factors such as total population functional scope and region while fiscal strain plays a secondary role political structures in the shape of legal constraints on taxation and debt and of form of government do not account for patterns of these traditional revenue sources by contrast nonguaranteed debt is best explained by a model in which fiscal strain has a paramount role but with both legal constraints on taxing and regional differentiation contributing significantly to the explanation at least for data collected prior to 1978 the findings suggest a two tiered model of the revenue side of fiscal decision making with historical accommodations to powerful economic and demographic factors dominating taxing and general obligation debt while nonguaranteed debt serves as a flexible instrument of shorter term strategy

causal relationships among economic aggregates in china using china s macro data from 1952 to 1989 the stationarity and causality tests to two types of economic aggregates are applied the first type relates to the conventional money income and consumption relationship and the other is associated with the interest rate money and investment income relationship as embodied in a financial repression model stationarity test results show that a different direction of causality exists when different measurement of price is used a causal relationship between interest rate money and investment income is also found

the influence of special district government on public spending and debt growth in special district governments is examined as a reason behind public sector expansion in the united states a theoretical model is developed of the optimal mix of government suppliers which predicts how special district governments affect the overall provision of government policies the hypothesis that expansion of special district governments leads to expansion of the public sector is expirically examined over two time periods

monetary vs credit aggregates an evaluation of monetary policy targets the past decade was characterized by increased emphasis upon monetary aggregates as intermediate targets for monetary policy although growth rate ranges were specified for both narrow and broad monetary aggegates as well as for bank credit the primary focus of the federal reserve was on the growth rate of narrow money however some policy makers 19 have recently expressed doubt about the viability of using narrow money as an intermediate target in particular it has been argued that recent financial innovations such as the introduction of the various now accounts the proliferation of money market mutual funds and the adoption of cash management techniques by both firms and consumers to name a few have distorted the ml1 gnp relationship thereby raising the question of whether broader monetary aggegates or even credit aggregates might bear a closer relationship to income furthermore the federal reserve has recently announced growth rate target ranges for a broad credit aggregate in addition to growth rate ranges for ml and m2 2 friedman 7 8 provides a general discussion of these issues while modiglianipapademos 18 provide a theoretical analysis of the conditions under which a credit aggregate is preferred to a monetary aggregate as an intermediate target however nothing conclusive can be said at the theoretical level since the choice between money and credit aggregates depends upon the true underlying structure of the macroeconomy hence the choice among money and credit aggregates is an empirical issue the aim of this paper is to provide evidence on the issue of credit aggregates versus monetary aggregates as intermediate targets for monetary policy the paper evaluates the characteristics of several monetary and credit aggregates in terms of two attributes of a

reconsidering the relevance of social license pressure and government regulation for environmental performance of european smes whereas social license pressure is held as a strong motive for the corporate social performance csp of large enterprises it is argued in literature that it will not sufficiently motivate small and medium sized enterprises smes in this view government regulation is the most effective way to improve the environmental performance of smes other studies argue that social license pressure is also important for smes because of the strong embeddedness of smes in their local communities a large scale empirical study into the effects of social license pressures and government regulation on the environmental performance of smes that could help solve this debate is however still lacking this paper contributes to the scientific literature by using structural equation modeling on a sample of 4929 smes from twelve european countries to test both views for micro small and medium sized enterprises another contribution to scientific literature is that our model includes direct as well as indirect effects from social license pressures on environmental performance the indirect effects are mediated by perceived market benefits of csr the estimation results show that social license pressures as perceived by smes significantly affect the environmental performance of micro small and medium sized enterprises directly as well as indirectly through mediation by perceived market benefits of csp in all cases the perceived social license pressure provides a stronger stimulus to improving environmental performance than the motive to comply with government regulation the policy implication is that governments should not rely on direct regulation of environmental performance only but also aim to improve the transparency of environmental performance by soft regulations that induce smes to publish key performance indicators on environmental issues

intraday relationships between volatility in s p 500 futures prices and volatility in the s p 500 index abstract this paper examines the intraday relationships between the volatility of s p 500 futures prices and the volatility of the s p 500 index we calculate variance measures for minute to minute price changes on a daily basis and across 30 minute intervals the empirical results indicate that i futures volatility is greater than index volatility ii volatility increased for both futures prices and the index in absolute terms from 1984 through 1986 iii both futures and index volatility increased directly with futures trading volume and iv index volatility was systematically greater during the first 30 minutes of trading each day than at other times granger tests however reveal no systematic pattern of futures volatility leading index volatility or index volatility leading futures volatility

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting