nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in propagation of the great depression this paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s onthe path of aggregate output during that period our approach is complementary to that of friedman and schwartz who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures we focus on non monetary primarily credit related aspects of the financial sector output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system we argue that the financial disruptions of 1930 33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the great depression this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

shocking the eurozone abstract in this paper the monetary transmission mechanism within the european monetary union is investigated the impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions of a structural vector error correction model svecm are compared with those of a new keynesian theoretical model the identifying restrictions of the svecm are directly derived from the theoretical model two permanent shocks are identified one having only nominal and one having only real effects the three transitory shocks comprise a short term interest rate shock an aggregate demand shock and a money demand shock the main conclusions are that permanently reducing the inflation objective depresses output in the first year but has no real effects in the long run regarding output variability the results indicate that aggregate demand shocks are most important during the first year after which aggregate supply shocks dominate

maintaining optimal inventory level by feedbacks abstract in this paper the inventory level is examined under a situation in which the demand function consists of two parts one which is sometimes referred to as the trend of demand is described as a proper polynomial function of time the other is given as a random variable with a finite variance a policy is planned which is to bring the expected value of realized inventory level to the planned level in order to accomplish this purpose some feedbacks are to be introduced the first feedback is realized by estimating the demand level in the future based upon the demand level in the past how much data is necessary depends on the degree of the polynomial function to be estimated the second is obtained by monitoring the realized inventory level the difference between the realized inventory level and the planned level is used as a feedback we will show that by combining these two feedbacks the expected value of difference between two inventory levels planned and realized converges to zero

german dominance in the ems evidence from interest rates abstract the paper presents an empirical analysis of german dominance and asymmetries in the ems based on a dynamic system of equations explaining national money market interest rates the hypothesis of strict german dominance of the ems is rejected however there are some noticeable asymmetries in the ems germany is a relatively strong player and has been the least dependent country in the early phase of the system since 1983 german independence has diminished in contrast france throughout and italy in the early phase of the ems have been relatively weak players in the system

monetary policy strategies for latin america the authors examine possible monetary policy strategies for latin america that may help lock in the gains the region attained in the fight against inflation in the 1990s instead of focusing the debate about the conduct of monetary policy on whether the nominal exchange rate should be fixed or flexible the focus should be on whether the monetary policy regime appropriately constrains discretion in monetary policymaking three basic frameworks deserve serious discussion as possible long run strategies for monetary policy in latin america the authors examine the advantages and disadvantages of a hard exchange rate peg monetary targeting and inflation targeting in light of monetary policy s recent track record in several latin american countries looking for clues about which of the strategies might be best suited to economies in the region the answer it depends on the country s institutional environment some countries appear not to have the institutions to constrain monetary policy if discretion is allowed in those countries there is a strong argument for hard pegs including full dollarization that allow little or no discretion to monetary authorities in countries such as chile which can constrain discretion inflation targeting is likely to produce a monetary policy that keeps inflation low yet appropriately copes with domestic and foreign shocks monetary targeting as a strategy for latin america is not viable because of the likely instability of the relationship between inflation and monetary aggregates of which there is ample international evidence no monetary strategy can solve the basic problems that have existed in latin american economies for a long time the authors welcome the recent move in latin american countries toward inflation targeting but say no policy will succeed unless government policies also create the right institutional environment

the structuralist theory of imported inflation an application to south africa this study emphasizes the importance of identifying the origin of inflation in the present context of inflation targeting by many emerging market and transition economies the analysis shows based on south african data how structural supply and demand inflation can be distinguished the results indicate that south africa s inflation experience between 1973q1 and 1998q4 is characterized by two monetary regimes during the first regime 1973q1 1984q4 the long run cause of inflation is demand pull the second regime 1987q1 1998q4 represents major changes to structural imported and cost push inflation the two year period 1985 1986 signifies structural change from the first to the second regime moreover the results in the second regime remain robust when the inflation model is subjected to new out of sample data until 2001q2 evidence of structural imported inflation in the second regime suggests that inflation should not entirely be squeezed out of the system nor should it necessarily be k

exchange rates policy convergence and the european monetary system in this paper we use a recently developed multivariate cointegration technique to analyze the degree of policy convergence of ems member relative to that of some non ems countries interestingly we find convergence for the nominal and real exchange rates and money supplies of the ems members but not for the non ems countries we also provide some evidence to support the german leadership hypothesis in the context of intra ems monetary policy convergence which accords with anecdotal evidence on the modus operandi of the ems

the eoq models modified by introducing discount of purchase price or increase of setup cost abstract the eoq model of inventory problem can determine ordering cycle and quantity when the purchase unit price is constant ordering cycle and ordering quantity which minimize the one day s average inventory cost is not dependent on the purchase price but if purchase price may change the eoq model must be modified the purchase unit price is discounted as the ordering becomes larger the discount of purchase price is described with a decreasing function of ordering quantity this function is not always continuous with respect to the ordering quantity under this condition one day s average profit can be defined and we can determine ordering cycle and ordering quantity which maximize one day s average profit moreover we consider the situations under which the setup cost depends on the ordering quantity in this case the setup can be described with the increasing function of ordering quantity we show that the eoq model can be applied if it is modified by introducing the continuous setup cost function this function is not differentiable at some levels of ordering quantity

income effects on the trade balance this paper investigates the income effects on the trade balance with particular attention to the distinction between permanent and transitory disturbances for the united states japan germany and the united kingdom in all four countries movements in the trade balance have mostly been associated with transitory changes in income the latter also are negatively associated with the trade balance in marked contrast permanent changes in income have little to do with the trade balance these results are examined in light of intertemporal models and real business cycle models copyright 1996 by mit press

the newsboy problem under progressive multiple discounts abstract previous research on the newsboy problem is based on the assumption that excess inventory is either discounted once and sold or disposed of real world settings especially in the apparel industry involve many cases where multiple discounts are used under multiple discounts a retailer has a series of discounts that are progressively used as the product remains on the shelf in this paper we formulate and solve a newsboy problem with multiple e discounts the new problem is solved with the objectives of 1 maximizing the expected profit and 2 maximizing the probability of achieving a target profit we show that multiple discounts when possible provide higher expected profit than using a single discount we verify the analytical results using numerical integration and illustrate the results with numerical examples

imitation local interactions and efficiency abstract we consider a circular city model as in ellison ellison g 1993 learning local interaction and coordination econometrica 61 1047 1071 where agents follow imitation rules rather than myopic best response if interactions are neither global nor limited to the immediate neighbors payoff efficient equilibria and not risk dominant ones can be uniquely selected

economic policies and demand for money evidence from canada this study identifies canadian fiscal and monetary policy regime changes that could influence the services of money it is argued that if these policy regime changes were not incorporated in the estimation of demand for real balances the resulting estimate would be biased and unstable using canadian monthly data for the january 1975 to june 2001 period the paper estimates a standard demand for money m1 function with and without these policy regime changes it was found the demand for money in canada is stable over the short and long run periods when these policy regime changes are incorporated and the estimated coefficients have correct signs

inflation targeting in emerging economies panel evidence abstract this paper shows there is no evidence that the inflation targeting regime it improves economic performance as measured by the behavior of inflation and output growth in developing countries the control of common time effects results in less negative and less significant it impacts on inflation inflation volatility and output growth volatility than previously found in the literature additionally our analysis shows robust evidence of lower output growth during it adoption on balance although lower long run mean inflation signals that the central banks of emerging economies with inflation targeting are more inflation averse the costs of disinflation have not been lower than under other monetary regimes

the logit response dynamics we develop a characterization of stochastically stable states for the logit response learning dynamics in games with arbitraryspecification of revision opportunities the result allows us to show convergence to the set of nash equilibria in the class of best response potential games and the failure of the dynamics to select potential maximizers beyond the class of exact potential games we also study to which extent equilibrium selection is robust to the specificationof revision opportunities our techniques can be extended and applied to a wide class of learning dynamics in games

estimation and control of an optimization based model with sticky prices and wages abstract this paper provides estimates of an optimization based equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages the estimated model is used to analyse the welfare properties of various interest rate rules for conducting monetary policy an important feature of this model is that it involves a tradeoff between the variances of price and wage inflation and the output gap this tradeoff implies that it is desirable for the monetary authority to respond to wage inflation in addition to price inflation output and past interest rates when setting the current interest rate the issue whether wages and prices can be indexed to steady state inflation has important implications both for the characterization of optimal interest rate rules and interest rate volatility in particular optimal policy in the presence of indexation induces implausibly high steady state inflation

monetary targets as a policy rule lessons from the swiss experience abstract this paper provides a survey and analysis of swiss monetary policy since the shift to a floating exchange rate in 1973 although the swiss national bank snb by international comparison managed to achieve a high degree of price stability it could not prevent temporary bursts of inflation i argue that the problem lay in an inappropriate snb response to such disturbances as unexpected exchange rate shocks and show that in constructing optimum feedback rules the snb must take account of the logs in the effects of monetary policy i also discuss the snb s current strategy resting on a medium term growth target for the monetary base

stochastic stackelberg equilibria with applications to time dependent newsvendor models this is the author s version of the article stochastic stackelberg equilibria with applications to time dependent newsvendor models journal of economic dynamics and control volume 37 issue 7 july 2013 pages 1284 1299

learning with fixed rules the minority game abstract this paper gives a critical account of the literature on adaptive behaviour in the minority game a simple congestion game the literature has proposed a model which differs markedly from many standard learning models in that players are endowed with a fixed subset of behavioural rules or response modes which map the observed history to actions these rules need not have a behavioural interpretation or be derived from some form of optimizing behaviour nonetheless this model gives rise to behaviour that is close to equilibrium behaviour at the aggregate level the individual level behaviour predicted by the model seems to capture some aspects of observed experimental behaviour that are difficult to explain using standard models

asymmetric monetary policy rules in australia abstractin this study the hypothesis that the reserve bank of australia rba implements an asymmetric monetary policy rule is tested we estimate both linear and asymmetric monetary policy reaction functions for the period before inflation targeting was adopted for the period when inflation targeting was explicitly adopted and for the full sample period the results of the linear monetary policy rules are consistent with the estimates reported from other studies that estimate linear monetary policy rules for australia on the other hand the results of estimating the asymmetric monetary policy rules for the pre inflation targeting period shows that the rba had reacted symmetrically suggesting that it had acted with the same aggressiveness towards both inflation and output gaps of the same magnitude over both phases of the business cycle however for the inflation targeting period the results show that the rba had reacted asymmetrically in its policy response to the inflation gap output gap or both

cointegration and the us term structure abstract using the maximum likelihood analysis of cointegration developed by johansen 1988 1991 we test the cointegration implications of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure on a sample of us pure discount yields by using this approach we are able to analyze systems of more than two interest rates simultaneously as opposed to most previous studies which examine interest rates only in pairs one of the main results is that for the period 1952 1987 the cointegration implications generally seem to hold

what to target inflation or exchange rate author affiliation shu lin shulin75 gmail comhaichun ye haichunye gmail com acknowledgment the authors would like to thank kent kimbrough and two anonymous referees for valuable comments 1 introductionone of the most important recent innovations in the conduct of monetary policy is inflation targeting in which a monetary authority makes public an estimated inflation rate or range and attempts to steer the actual inflation toward the target using monetary tools since its emergence in the early 1990s inflation targeting has certainly been gaining popularity over the last two decades by the end of 2006 27 countries among which 17 are developing countries had explicitly adopted this new monetary policy regime the emergence of inflation targeting has attracted substantial attention from both researchers and policymakers numerous studies have empirically evaluated the effects of adopting an explicit inflation targeting regime on a country s economic performance especially on inflation and growth while studies focusing on advanced industrial countries so far have yielded mixed results the evidence in developing countries seems to be more robust 1 batini kuttner and laxton 2005 goncalves and salles 2008 and lin and ye 2009 all find that inflation targeting significantly lowers inflation in developing countries where the credibility of the central bank has not yet been well established thus the credibility gain of adopting an explicit inflation targeting regime is substantial in addition capistran and ramos francia 2010 show that inflation targeting significantly lowers the dispersion of inflation expectations in developing countries two recent survey articles walsh 2009 and ball 2010 also concluded that inflation targeting has larger beneficial effects in developing countries than those in advanced industrial countries despite the success of inflation targeting in developing countries the more traditional exchange rate targeting framework still remains the dominant monetary policy regime in developing countries it is so popular that an influential study by calvo and reinhart 2002 finds an epidemic case of fear of floating in the developing world 2 furthermore similar to inflation targeting an exchange rate targeting regime especially a credibly enforced one is also viewed as an effective means to achieve price stability in developing countries because it serves as a nominal anchor by allowing a developing central bank to borrow credibility from a foreign monetary authority in a strict exchange rate targeting framework the targeting country s inflation rate should be equal to that of the country usually a low inflation rich country to which its exchange rate is pegged does an inflation targeting framework outperform an exchange rate targeting regime in achieving price stability in developing countries if so does this benefit come at a cost of slower growth these two important and policy related questions have not yet been examined in the literature a common feature of previous studies is that they all compare an inflation targeting regime with a very broad alternative namely a non inflation targeting regime while ignoring the substantial heterogeneity in the monetary policy regimes adopted by non inflation targeting countries a disadvantage of comparing inflation targeting with such a broad alternative is that the results may not be of direct use for policy choices the objective of this study therefore is to make the first attempt in the literature to conduct a direct empirical comparison of the emerging inflation targeting framework with the popular exchange rate targeting regime in developing countries in particular we compare the effects of these two monetary policy regimes on two key outcome variables inflation and economic growth our study is built upon three recent empirical works on the effects of inflation targeting in developing countries including batini kuttner and laxton 2005 goncalves and salles 2008 and lin and ye 2009 but we focus on directly comparing inflation targeting with exchange rate targeting

is the us dollar a suitable anchor for the newly proposed gcc currency responses of inflation and non oil output growth from the gulf cooperation council gcc countries to monetary policy shocks from the united states us were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the us dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency a structural vector autoregression identified with short run restrictions was employed for each country with fed funds rate as the us monetary policy instrument non oil output growth and inflation the main results suggest that for inflation the gcc countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the us which are similar to inflation in the us and for non oil output growth there is no clear indication that us monetary policy can be as effective for the gcc countries as it is domestically consequently importing us monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the gcc countries not necessarily stable non oil output growth if the non oil output response is made conscientiously and there are concerns over the dollar s ability to perform its role as a store of value a basket peg with both the us dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented svar with a proxy for the european short term interest rate

a combined measure of uk core inflation estimates this article estimates uk core inflation in a structural vector autoregression var framework while building on the work of quah and vahey 1995 we extend their two variable var model to allow for different dynamics depending on the nature of the shocks that potentially influence the process of core inflation we also construct a combined measure of core inflation estimates on the basis of their reliabilities empirical evidence shows that the new measures demonstrate marked improvement in their eligibility to serve as core inflation estimators furthermore the combined measure is shown to perform best it appears that the conventional core measures such as the retail prices excluding mortgage interest payments rpix and the harmonized index of consumer prices hicp inflation series are not successful in capturing the underlying trend of inflation casting some doubt on their current use in the making of monetary policy decisions

linkage in ems term structures evidence from common trend and transitory components abstract we test for the link among selected ems term structures during 1979 1995 by decomposing each term structure into its common trend and transitory components we find that ems common trends move together over time that the german trend is not the driving source of the shared co movements and that the transitory components spread are more loosely linked in recent years perhaps due to widened exchange rate bands our findings refute arguments that germany plays a dominant role in setting policy and raise doubts that it will play a dominant role if and when emu takes place

the impact of central bank independence on the performance of inflation targeting regimes abstract this paper examines the effects of inflation targeting on inflation in both advanced and emerging economies we do not detect significant effects in advanced economies and only find small benefits in emerging economies in line with previous studies however when we differentiate the impact of inflation targeting based on the degree of central bank independence we find large effects in emerging economies with low central bank independence our results therefore suggest that central bank independence is not a prerequisite for countries to experience significant declines in inflation following the adoption of inflation targeting furthermore we provide evidence that one channel through which inflation targeting lowers inflation more in countries with low central bank independence is the reduction of budget deficits following the adoption of an inflation target

a structural bayesian var for model based fan charts inflation forecast uncertainty is of importance for a wide range of agents in the economy central banks in particular ways to describe and account for this uncertainty in a consistent manner have received increasing attention of late in part due to the growing number of inflation targeting central banks this article develops a large structural var for the swedish economy and estimates it in a bayesian framework the methodology permits not only structural interpretation and analysis but offers a natural way to formalize forecast uncertainty as the posterior predictive density from the model has the interpretation of a fan chart

are empirical measures of macroeconomic uncertainty alike there is a plethora of time series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth in empirical studies but little is known whether they are comparable to the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the survey of professional forecasters are these two measures of uncertainty inherently distinct this paper shows that compared with many uncertainty proxies produced by time series models the use of real time data with fixed sample recursive estimation of an asymmetric bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model yields inflation uncertainty estimates which resemble the survey measure there is however overwhelming evidence that many of the time series measures of growth uncertainty exceed the level of uncertainty obtained from survey measure our results highlight the relative merits of using different methods in modelling macroeconomic uncertainty which are useful for empirical researchers

newsvendor problem with clearance pricing abstract the newsvendor nv problem assumes that the salvage clearance price at which the leftover inventory is disposed of is a given parameter of the problem in this paper we relax this assumption and consider the nv problem with the salvage clearance price as a decision variable we have drawn from the literatures on the nv problem and clearance markdown dynamic pricing to develop three stochastic models in this paper in the first model we assume that while the seasonal demand is exogenous and stochastic the end of season demand is endogenous and deterministic the second model extends the first model by assuming that the end of season demand is endogenous and stochastic finally the third model considers that both the seasonal and end of season demands are endogenous and stochastic we have provided solution procedures for solving the stochastic optimization problems we have also performed sensitivity analyses to assess the sensitivity of the optimal expected profit and order quantity to different problem parameters specifically we have found that the optimal expected profit is most sensitive to the variable cost per unit mean seasonal demand and market potential of end of season demand our models will be useful for retailers of products with a short selling season and a short end of season period for clearance sale of leftover inventory such that there is a single replenishment opportunity at the beginning of the season and a single opportunity for setting the salvage price for clearance sale based on the leftover inventory and end of season demand pattern the paper is concluded with possible directions for future research

inflation targeting a new framework for monetary policy he world s central bankers and their staffs meet regularly in venues from basle to washington to share ideas and discuss common problems perhaps these frequent meetings help explain why changes in the tactics and strategy of monetary policymaking such as the adoption of money growth targets in the 1970s the intensification of efforts to reduce inflation in the 1980s and the recent push for increased institutional independence for central banks tend to occur in many countries more or less simultaneously whatever their source major changes in the theory and practice of central banking are of great importance for both individual countries and the international economy in this article we discuss a new strategy for monetary policy known as inflation targeting which has sparked much interest and debate among central bankers and monetary economists in recent years this approach is characterized as the name suggests by the announcement of official target ranges for the inflation rate at one or more horizons and by explicit acknowledgment that low and stable inflation is the overriding goal of monetary policy other important features of inflation targeting include increased communication with the public about the plans and objectives of the monetary policymakers and in many cases increased accountability of the central bank

product selection for newsboy type products with normal demands and unequal costs abstract in this paper we consider two newsboy type products with unequal prices and costs both demands are independent and follow normal distributions with unknown parameters and we study the product selection problem which deals with comparing two products and selecting the one that has a significantly higher profitability in which the profitability is defined to the probability of achieving a target profit under the optimal ordering policy the statistical hypothesis testing methodology is performed to tackle this selection problem critical value of the test is calculated to determine the selection decision sample size required for a designated power and confidence level is also investigated an application example on comparing english teaching magazines is presented to illustrate the practicality of our approach

does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries we evaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting in thirteen developing countries that have adopted this policy by the end of 2004 using a variety of propensity score matching methods we show that on average inflation targeting has large and significant effects on lowering both inflation and inflation variability in these thirteen countries however the effectiveness of inflation targeting on lowering inflation is found to be quite heterogeneous the performance of a given inflation targeting regime can be affected by country characteristics such as government s fiscal position central bank s desire to limit the movements of exchange rate its willingness to meet the preconditions of policy adoption and the time length since the policy adoption

a dynamic analysis of asymmetric shocks in eu manufacturing available empirical evidence regarding the degree of symmetry between european economies in the context of monetary unification is not conclusive this study offers new empirical evidence concerning this issue related to the manufacturing sector instead of using a static approach as most empirical studies do the dynamic evolution of shock symmetry is analysed using a state space model the results show a clear reduction of asymmetries in terms of demand shocks between 1978 and 1996 with an increase in terms of supply shocks at the end of the period

the multi period newsboy problem we will try to generalize the so called newsboy model so that we can deal with unsatisfied demand or unsold quantity consider the time interval that consists of multiple ordering cycles assume that the probability density function of demand is given for each cycle then our problem is to make the ordering plan with which we can maximize the expected profit in the classical newsboy model ordering quantity is always equal to the planned initial inventory level but if we take account of unsatisfied demand and unsold quantity the desired ordering quantity must be determined by a proper stochastic rule then in stead of determining the ordering quantity of each cycle we must plan the initial inventory level so that the expected profit may be maximized if unsold exists in present cycle the ordering quantity of next cycle becomes smaller than the planned inventory level and if unsatisfied demand exists in the present cycle the ordering quantity of next cycle becomes larger than the planned inventory level

alternative identifying restrictions in a model of uk real output and prices this paper presents some simulation results for a small structural vector autoregression model of the interaction between real output and prices for the uk economy the model is estimated using quarterly data over the period 1966 2 to 1995 4 the effects of alternative identifying restrictions on the simulation properties of the model are considered and it is shown that the restriction of long run neutrality of real output with respect to demand shocks has a major impact even if long run neutrality is not imposed the results still indicate that most of the variance of real output over long forecasting horizons can be attributed to supply side disturbances the model is used to analyse the role of demand and supply disturbances in explaining the three major recessions of the period and it is shown that each of these exhibits unique characteristics

monetary shocks in the g 6 countries is there a puzzle les auteurs cherchent a clarifier la dynamique du mecanisme de transmission de la politique monetaire l identification des chocs de politique monetaire est au coeur de ce genre d analyse divers chercheurs ont reussi recemment a isoler de tels chocs en imposant des restrictions de suridentification a des modeles vectoriels autoregressifs var

how the european central bank decided its early monetary policy the main goal of this paper is to detect the mechanisms that should rationally stimulate the decision making policies of the european central bank ecb this is carried out under the framework of theoretical principles of interest rate rules firstly we deduce a set of logically advisable guidelines for the strategy actually developed by this central bank then we contrast a wide set of hypotheses with reference to those variables the ecb takes into account on deciding its monetary policy with a flexible treatment regarding the number of months of advance or delay in the explanatory variables the results lead us to the conclusion that the ecb besides adopting a smooth strategy especially bears in mind the expected core inflation rate with a reaction coefficient adjusted to that initially proposed by taylor the economic growth rate though it has a significant positive coefficient matters relatively little and is backward looking finally we evaluate up to what point the behaviour of the ecb is a

the mirage of exchange rate regimes for emerging market countries this paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat it begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes and then explores the weaknesses in this theory especially when it is applied to emerging market economies it then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits the conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the development of good fiscal financial and monetary institutions in producing macroeconomic success in emerging market countries this suggests that less attention should be focused on the general question whether a floating or a fixed exchange rate is preferable and more on these deeper institutional arrangements a focus on institutional reforms rather than on the exchange rate regime may encourage emerging market countries to be healthier and less prone to the crises that we have seen in recent years

the term structure of interest rates in the new and prospective eu countries this article uses cointegration and common trends techniques to investigate empirically the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for the 10 new eu countries along with bulgaria and romania the empirical results support the expectations theory of the term structure for all countries except malta by decomposing each term structure into its transitory and permanent components we also analyse short run and long run interdependence among the term structures of interest rates in these countries our results indicate only weak linkages among the term structures of the 10 new eu countries and strong linkages between bulgaria and romania joined the eu in 2007

is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy abstract we examine the potential policy role of monetary aggregates by attempting to use them as effectively as possible in the analysis of empirical relationships we focus on their role as information variables since any more ambitious use such as in a policy rule would presuppose some information content in the aggregates our results show that in the united states since 1979 the monetary aggregates fall considerably short of those requirements and results with german m3 are hardly more favorable we also investigate whether empirical relationships are not reflective of information relationships because of the use of these variables in countercyclical policy the results are not consistent with that interpretation

using the aggregate demand aggregate supply model to identify structural demand side and supply side shocks results using a bivariate var this paper uses the short run restrictions implied by a simple aggregate demand aggregate supply model as an aid in identifying structural shocks combined with the blanchard quah restriction it allows estimation of the slope of the aggregate supply curve the variances of structural demand and supply shocks and the extent to which structural demand and supply shocks are correlated this paper finds that demand and supply shocks are highly correlated and that demand shocks possibly can account for as much as 82 of the long run forecast error variance of real u s gdp

money income prices and interest rates including data from the 1980s sharply weakens the postwar time series evidence indicating significant relationships between money however defined and nominal income or between money and either real income or prices separately focusing on data from 1970 onward destroys this evidence altogether evidence indicating cointegration of real income and real money balances with due allowance for the effect of interest rates also deteriorates when the sample extends through the 1980s a positive finding is that the spread between the commercial paper rate and the treasury bill rate consistently contains highly significant information about future movements in real income copyright 1992 by american economic association

monetary transmission in spain a structural cointegrated var approach this paper analyses the monetary policy channels in spain using a cointegrated structural var approach which explicitly accounts for endogenous policy reactions in a small open economy evidence is found of one cointegrating relation which is identified as a long run money demand function in addition stability tests are applied to this relationship to assess whether there has been a change of monetary regime the impulse responses for the non monetary shocks as well as the absence of the puzzles traditionally found in the empirical literature suggest that the model specification identifies the monetary policy shocks correctly thus according to our results a monetary contraction causes a weak downward response in the price level as well as an increase in both short and long run nominal interest rates a decrease in aggregate output and an exchange rate appreciation

an extended newsboy problem with shortage level constraints abstract it is only an order quantity which is decided for a spot selling time in the classical newsboy problem both the purchase timing and the time variant variance of the demand are neglected when the vendor gives a price discount for early purchase the buyer purchases the quantities of price discount at the cost of forecast bias the buyer has to forecast the demand early before purchase ahead of schedule but it may increase the variance of the forecasted demand which is a forecast bias this time variant variance of the demand is embedded into the model when the average shortage level is specified to an upper limit both the purchase timing and the order quantity are simultaneously considered as the decision variables of the extended newsboy problem in this paper the resultant outcomes could apply to some cases in the futures contracts

news noise and fluctuations an empirical exploration a common view of the business cycle gives a central role to anticipations consumers and firms continuously receive information about the future which is sometimes news and sometimes just noise based on this information consumers and firms choose spending and because of nominal rigidities spending affects output in the short run if ex post the information turns out to be news the economy adjusts gradually to a new level of activity if it turns out to be just noise the economy returns to its initial state therefore the dynamics of news and noise generate both short run and long run changes in aggregate activity this view appears to capture many of the aspects often ascribed to fluctuations the role of animal spirits in affecting demand spirits coming here from a rational reaction to information about the future the role of demand in affecting output in the short run together with the notion that in the long run output follows a natural path determined by fundamentals in this paper we examine whether this view is consistent with the data we reach three main conclusions the first two methodological the third substantive structural vars typically cannot recover news and noise shocks the reason is straightforward if agents face a signal extraction problem and are unable to separate news from noise then the econometrician faced with either the same data as the agents or a subset of these data cannot do it either while structural estimation methods cannot recover the actual time series for news and noise shocks either they can recover underlying structural parameters and thus the relative role and dynamic effects of news and noise shocks estimation of both a simple model and then of a more elaborate dsge model suggest that agents indeed solve such a signal extraction problem and that noise shocks play an important role in determining short run dynamics recent efforts to estimate business cycle models in which expectations about the future play an important role include christiano et al 2010 and schmitt grohe and uribe 2012 those papers follow the approach of jaimovich and rebelo 2009 and model news as perfectly anticipated productivity changes that will occur at

the mirage of fixed exchange rates this paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets contrary to popular wisdom industrialized country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack but if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange rate peg can be very high the dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 swedish and british crises and the 1994 95 mexican collapse we also discuss the small number of successful fixers

linkages among interest rates in the united states germany and norway the johansen multivariate cointegration methodology is used to analyze relationships among short term and long term interest rates in the united states germany and norway a variance decomposition approach is applied to estimate the proportion of each interest rate s forecast error variance attributable to innovations in the other interest rates impulse response functions are plotted to illustrate the speed with which interest rate events are transmitted between capital markets the analyses illustrate that us interest rates have a significant influence on both german and norwegian interest rates while the reverse effect is modest norway is also strongly exposed to german interest rate movements which reflects the consequences of a small country linking its currency to the value of european currencies

what caused the early millennium slowdown evidence based on vector autoregressions this paper uses a simple var for the usa and euro area to analyse the underlying shocks of the early millennium slowdown i e supply demand monetary policy and oil price shocks the results of two identification strategies are compared one is based on traditional zero restrictions and as an alternative an identification scheme based on more recent sign restrictions is proposed the main conclusion is that the recent slowdown is caused by a combination of several shocks negative aggregate supply and aggregate spending shocks the increase of oil prices in 1999 and restrictive monetary policy in 2000 these shocks are more pronounced in the usa than the euro area the results are somewhat different depending on the identification strategy it is illustrated that traditional zero restrictions can have an influence on the estimated impact of certain shocks copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

does the exchange rate regime make a difference in inflation performance in developing and emerging countries the role of inflation targeting abstract we apply propensity score matching estimators with multiple outcomes to evaluate the impacts of exchange rate regimes fixed intermediate and flexible without inflation targeting and inflation targeting on inflation rates in emerging and developing countries an inflation targeting regime does better than or at least as good work as a fixed regime in lowering inflation rates when compared with intermediate or flexible regimes we do not observe a clear difference in inflation rates between fixed and inflation targeting regimes in recent years 2000 2007 intermediate and flexible regimes provide higher inflation than fixed or inflation targeting regimes in most cases

two fallacies concerning central bank independence this paper takes issue with two basic conclusions prevalent in the literature on central bank behavior first the paper argues that it is inappropriate to presume that central banks will in the absence of any precommitment technology necessarily behave in a discretionary fashion that implies an inflationary bias since there is no functional connection between average rates of money creation or inflation and policy responsiveness to cyclical disturbances it is entirely feasible for the bias to be avoided in other words there is no necessary tradeoff between flexibility and commitment second to the extent that the absence of any absolute precommitment technology is nevertheless a problem it will apply to a consolidated central bank plus government entity as well as to the central bank alone thus contracts between governments and central banks do not overcome the motivation for dynamic inconsistency they merely relocate it this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

inflation targeting is it to blame for banking system instability abstract in light of the financial crisis the practice of inflation targeting it has been blamed for authorities failure to respond to the increase in financial systemic risk and to the development of asset bubbles however utilizing a rich database containing nearly 5500 commercial banks from 70 countries among which 22 are it for the period 1998 2012 this paper argues that on average inflation targeting national banking systems i are more stable ii possess sounder systemically important banks and iii are less distressed than or at least as distressed as other banks during periods of global liquidity shortages our results are robust to a series of tests such as when we compare countries with the same legal origins or control for the delegation of bank supervision responsibility to bodies other than the central bank overall we conclude that it cannot be blamed for contributing to financial fragility

how well does the is lm model fit postwar u s data postwar u s time series for money interest rates prices and gnp are characterized by a multivariate process driven by four exogenous disturbances those disturbances are identified so that they can be interpreted as the four main sources of fluctuations found in the is lm phillips curve model money supply money demand is and aggregate supply shocks the dynamic properties of the estimated model are analyzed and shown to match most of the stylized predictions of the model the estimated decomposition is also used to measure the relative importance of each shock to interpret some macroeconomic episodes and to study sources of permanent shocks to nominal variables

international experiences with different monetary policy regimes any views expressed in this paper are those of the author only and not those of columbia university or the national bureau of economic research abstract this paper examines the international experiences with four basic types of monetary policy regimes 1 exchange rate targeting 2 monetary targeting 3 inflation targeting and 4 monetary policy with an implicit but not an explicit nominal anchor the basic theme that emerges from this analysis is that transparency and accountability are crucial to constraining discretionary monetary policy so that it produces desirable long run outcomes because the devil is in the details in achieving transparency and accountability what strategy will work best in a country depends on its political cultural and economic institutions as well as on its past history

does inflation targeting really make a difference evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries abstract we evaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries that adopted this policy in the 1990s to address the self selection problem of policy adoption we make use of a variety of propensity score matching methods recently developed in the treatment effect literature our results show that inflation targeting has no significant effects on either inflation or inflation variability in these seven countries further evidence from long term nominal interest rates and income velocity of money also supports the window dressing view of inflation targeting

interest rates and monetary policy this article conducts a thorough intertemporal analysis of nominal interest rate based monetary policy its main contribution is to show how such a policy can have different effects depending on the assumptions made about the saving and borrowing behaviour of firms we consider two cases i consumers are savers and firms are borrowers and ii both consumers and firms are borrowers the nation as a whole is borrowing from abroad in one case we confirm conventional wisdom but in the other case we find there may be unexpected and surprising results moreover our analysis has important implications for both inflation and nominal exchange rate targeting policies

alternative indicators for predicting the probability of declining inflation evidence from the us the performance of inflation indicators for predicting the probability of inflation falling inside constant and moving targets is considered with a probit model using us data given the federal reserve system s emphasis on achieving price stability particular attention is given to the target that future inflation will be below recent inflation in contrast with earlier years the unemployment and capacity utilisation rates do not perform well in forecasting the direction of inflation in the mid and late 1990s we suggest that extending the keynesian phillips curve analysis to consider changes in labour market conditions technological advance and worker skills and openness will increase understanding of these issues

inflation forecast contracts we introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers inflation forecast contracts which make central bankers remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts we show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more eectively thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts but have adverse consequences for output on balance paying central bankers according to their forecasting performance improves welfare

nominal inertia and shock persistence in uk business cycles a structural var methodology is used for uk data to identify and map out the effects of innovations in the money supply employment output wages and prices moreover bands of two standard errors are computed for the impulse response functions so that comment may be made on the significance of the dynamic responses of the variables to the simulated shocks this allows conclusions to be drawn on the persistence of shocks results suggest that output variation is largely determined by aggregate demand shocks over the business cycle frequency importantly evidence is also found of rigidities in the form of price inertia and nominal wage stickiness

the causes of spanish unemployment a structural var approach abstract in this paper we review the main causes of spanish unemployment and weight them by estimating a simple macroeconomic model using the structural var methodology by using this methodology we associate different causes of unemployment with shocks of different nature which have long lasting effects due to full hysteresis we claim that such an extreme assumption on state dependency is reasonable at least as a local approximation for the period and the economy at hand our results suggest that the combination of a plausible mixture of different types of shock and extreme persistence in their propagation mechanisms can satisfactorily explain the dismal performance of the spanish labour market during the last two decades

the policy preferences of the us federal reserve in this paper we model and explain us macroeconomic outcomes subject to the discipline that monetary policy is set optimally exploiting the restrictions that come from optimal policymaking we estimate the parameters in the federal reserve s policy objective function together with the parameters in its optimization constraints for the period following volcker s appointment as chairman we estimate the implicit inflation target to be around 1 4 and show that policymakers assigned a significant weight to interest rate smoothing we show that the estimated optimal policy provides a good description of us data for the 1980s and 1990s

the federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission the authors show that the interest rate on federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables then they argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of bank reserves that is the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions finally using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in policy the authors present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through credit i e bank loans as well as through money i e bank deposits copyright 1992 by american economic association

alternative maximum likelihood estimation of structural vector autoregressive models partially identified with short run restrictions this paper presents an alternative maximum likelihood estimation method for partially identified vector autoregressive models this method might be especially useful to handle very large systems of variables by reducing the dimension of the likelihood space as an application we consider an open economy model to investigate the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates and term structures we find that exchange rates tend to overshoot and term structures have hump shaped responses to monetary policy shocks

simple and clever decision rules for a model of evolution abstract under the decision rule specified by kandori mailath and rob 1993 kandori m mailath g j rob r 1993 learning mutation and long run equilibria in games econometrica 61 29 56 myopic adjustment can lead to surprising results including coordination on strictly dominated strategies we show that under an alternative decision rule convergence to nash equilibrium is guaranteed moreover if rare mutations are introduced risk dominant equilibria always correspond to long run equilibria

quantitative goals for monetary policy we study empirically the macroeconomic effects of an explicit de jure quantitative goal for monetary policy quantitative goals take three forms exchange rates money growth rates and inflation targets we analyze the effects on inflation of both having a quantitative target and of hitting a declared target our empirical work uses an annual data set covering 42 countries between 1960 and 2000 and takes account of other determinants of inflation such as fiscal policy the business cycle and openness to international trade and the endogeneity of the monetary policy regime we find that both having and hitting quantitative targets for monetary policy is systematically and robustly associated with lower inflation the exact form of the monetary target matters somewhat especially for the sustainability of the monetary regime but is less important than having some quantitative target successfully achieving a quantitative monetary goal is also associated with less volatile output

inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule the purpose of the paper is to survey and discuss in ation targeting in the context of monetary policy rules the paper provides a general conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of in ation targeting compares in ation targeting to other monetary policy rules and draws some conclusions for the monetary policy of the european system of central banks jel classi cation e42 e52

the effectiveness of monetary policy anchors firm level evidence analyses of monetary policy posit that exchange rate pegs inflation targets and central bank independence can help anchor private sector inflation expec tations yet there are few direct tests of this argument we offer cross national micro level evidence on the effectiveness of monetary anchors in controlling private sector inflation concerns using firm level data from eighty one countries approximately 10 000 firms we find evidence that international anchors exchange rate commit ments correlate significantly with a substantial reduction in private sector concerns about inflation while domestic anchors inflation targeting and central bank inde pendence do not our conjecture is that private sector inflation expectations are more responsive to exchange rate anchors because they are more transparent more con straining and more costly than domestic anchoring arrangements the literature on monetary policy highlights the role of monetary institutions in stabilizing private sector inflation expectations central bank independence cbi inflation targeting it and fixed exchange rates pegs are widely viewed as insti tutions that have the capacity to mitigate private sector concerns that policymak ers will exploit them after they have locked in their price wage and investment decisions while other empirical research explores the institutional correlates of inflation and its variability yielding mixed results we use firm level data in our study to directly assess the impact of monetary anchors on private sector inflation concerns we find evidence that pegs mitigate firm owners concerns with infla tion but that domestic anchors such as it and cbi are uncorrelated with our micro indicators of inflation expectations considerable research has investigated the use of it cbi and pegs as institu tions that establish monetary policy credibility whereas these anchors are expected

constrained interactions and social coordination we consider a co evolutionary model of social coordination and network formation where agents may decide on an action in a 2x2 coordination game and on whom to establish costly links to we find that a payoff domination convention is selected for a wider parameter range when agents may only support a limited number of links as compared to a scenario where agents are not constrained in their linking choice the main reason behind this result is that whenever there is a small cluster of agents playing the efficient strategy other players want to link up to those layers and choose the efficient action

the dynamic impacts of monetary policy an exercise in tentative identification it is currently popular to identify monetary policy shocks with innovations in some measure of reserves or in the federal funds rate these assumptions about the interest elasticity of the supply of or demand for reserves imply monetary policy shocks that produce dynamic responses of macroeconomic variables that are anomalous relative to traditional monetary analyses this paper tentatively identifies supply and demand shocks in the markets for reserves and m2 for the 1980s and contrasts them with results for the 1970s in the later period identified monetary policy shocks have dynamic impacts that are fully consistent with traditional analyses

what do technology shocks tell us about the new keynesian paradigm abstract researchers have used unanticipated changes to monetary policy to identify preference and technology parameters of macroeconomic models this paper uses changes in technology to identify the same set of parameters estimates based on technology shocks differ substantially from those based on monetary policy shocks in the post world war ii united states a positive technology shock reduces inflation and increases hours worked significantly and rapidly in both cases relative to policy shock identification technology shock identification implies i long duration durability in preferences instead of short duration habit ii built in inflation inertia disappears and price flexibility increases in response to technological improvement consumption durability increases hours worked because households temporarily increase labor supply to accumulate durables towards a new higher steady state level limited nominal rigidities allow inflation to fall because firms are able to immediately cut prices when households labor supply increases finally we consider alternative data constructions and econometric specifications we find that i and or ii hold in nearly every case

sticky price and limited participation models of money a comparison abstract we provide new evidence that models of the monetary transmission mechanism should be consistent with at least the following facts after a contractionary monetary policy shock the aggregate price level responds very little aggregate output falls interest rates initially rise real wages decline by a modest amount and profits fall we compare the ability of sticky price and limited participation models with frictionless labor markets to account for these facts the key failing of the sticky price model lies in its counterfactual implications for profits the limited participation model can account for all the above facts but only if one is willing to assume a high labor supply elasticity 2 percent and a high markup 40 percent the shortcomings of both models reflect the absence of labor market frictions such as wage contracts or factor hoarding which dampen movements in the marginal cost of production after a monetary policy shock 1997 elsevier science b v

uncertainty and labor contract durations this paper provides an empirical investigation into the relationship between ex ante u s labor contract durations and uncertainty over the period 1970 to 1995 we construct measures of inflation uncertainty as well as aggregate nominal and real uncertainty the results not only corroborate previous findings of an inverse relationship between contract durations and inflation uncertainty but also document that this relationship extends to both measures of aggregate uncertainty we also explore the robustness of this relationship to various measures of inflation uncertainty that have appeared in the literature

an empirical analysis of oil price shocks in the interwar period i introduction post world war ii experience demonstrates that disturbances to aggregate supply are important determinants of aggregate economic performance a casual glance at the post 1970 data strongly suggests a correlation between shocks to the price of oil and recession hamilton 1983 formally demonstrates that this correlation arises from what appears to be a causal link that runs from oil price increases to reduced economic activity the sequence of oil price increases followed by recession characterizes every post world war ii economic downturn in the u s with the exception of 1960 61 other research confirms the critical role of supply shocks in explaining post world war ii macroeconomic performance burbidge and harrison 1984 employ vector autoregressions vars to examine the impact of oil price shocks over the 1962 82 period for several countries they conclude that these shocks played a large role in deepening the recessions of the 1970s with the impact on the 1973 74 recession much greater than that of 1979 80 tatom 1988 estimates the impact of the 1979 80 increase in the relative price of oil and reports that this shock reduced the amount of output that could be produced with available labor and capital by 5 7 percent thoma 1992 re examines the work of litterman and weiss 1985 and finds that the ex ante real interest rate is not exogenous to supply shocks contrary to what is reported in litterman and weiss using annual data over the 1948 82 period loungani 1986 shows that any correlation between an index of the dispersion of unemployment across industries and the aggregate unemployment rate is due to the dispersion index s collinearity with oil price shocks once this collinearity is accounted for the dispersion index has no explanatory power to account for movements in the aggregate unemployment rate while the evidence for the causal link between supply shocks and output appears most dramatic for the post 1970 data hamilton 1983 argues that the entire post war period be treated as a continuous whole the enduring regularity of the oil price shock recession relation in this period leads to a natural question is there any evidence that oil price shocks either positive or negative played any role in the cyclical fluctuations and secular expansion of the 1920s and the great depression figure 1 presents a plot of the relative price of oil defined precisely in section ii for the 1921 1 1938 6 period we observe a number of sharp movements in the relative price of oil that suggest an assessment of the empirical impact of oil price shocks during the interwar period is warranted accordingly we investigate the effects of oil price shocks during the interwar period within the context of a small macroeconomic model 1 the empirical framework is a var model that consists of output the price level the monetary base the m2 money multiplier the commercial paper rate government spending a financial intermediation variable and a measure of oil price shocks these are variables frequently found in small macroeconomic models monthly data for the period 1924 2 1938 6 are used to specify and estimate the model we evaluate the impact of oil price shocks on prices and output through computation of variance decompositions the standard errors reported are generated through monte carlo simulations historical decompositions for the 1929 9 1938 6 period are also computed so we can specifically examine the effects of oil price shocks over the sample period that includes the great depression we chose the var modeling approach because there is little agreement on the appropriate structural model and var estimation places few restrictions on the way in which the system s variables interact in the specification and estimation of the model all variables are treated as jointly determined no a priori assumptions are made about the exogeneity of any of the system s variables at this stage of analysis

what moves oecd real interest rates this paper conducts a structural time series analysis of ex ante real interest rates of the five major oecd economies the relationships of rates to permanent and temporary real and nominal shocks appear to be qualitatively consistent with predictions of stochastic general equilibrium business cycle models u s real and nominal shocks are found to be the most important causes of persistence in rates but only nominal shocks cause dynamic movements that are coherent across all countries the rise in real interest rates in the early 1980s was mainly due to nominal shocks real shocks played little or no role

a structural var approach on labour taxation policies this paper presents a structural var analysis on the employment and output effects of labour tax policies in six european countries for the period 1974 1997 by considering impulse response functions it turns out that on average a shock to the total personal income tax revenues is positively correlated to employment whereas there is mixed evidence on the output effect moreover the quantitative impact of these effects especially those related to the output appears to be quite small however by introducing explicitly four labour tax parameters namely the marginal and average tax rates for the personal income tax and the payroll tax it turns out that these effects are not negligible after all for some countries it is possible to conceive labour taxes as policy instruments favouring more employment and a better economic performance however the empirical support on the sign of the output and employment effects is mixed suggesting that the same domestic fiscal policy does not produce the same im

partial bandwagon effects and local interactions we consider partial bandwagon properties in the context of coordination games to capture the idea of weak network externalities we then study a local interactions model where agents play a coordination game following a noisy best reply process we show that globally pairwise risk dominant strategies are selected in arbitrary 3 3 coordination games but not necessarily in larger games a comparison with the global interactions benchmark shows that the nature of interactions might alter the long run results themselves and not only the speed of convergence we also illustrate that the simultaneous coexistence of conventions is possible for games with at least 5 strategies 2007 elsevier inc all rights reserved

a long run view of german dominance and the degree of policy convergence in the ems i introduction when the european monetary system ems was established in march 1979 the member countries agreed to gradually move to a european monetary union emu at the maastricht summit on december 9 10 1991 the member nations signed an agreement outlining the requirements and a timetable for monetary union building upon the framework specified in the 1989 delors report the maastricht agreement outlines a three stage transition to a common european monetary policy 1 the achievement of a high degree of monetary policy convergence among the member countries is crucial if a common monetary policy is to be initiated the ems already provides a framework in which monetary policy actions can be coordinated but have member nations actually coordinated their actions or have they conducted independent policies some have claimed that the bundesbank has dominated monetary policy in the ems one explanation is that by tying domestic monetary policy to that of germany other countries policymakers enhance their own credibility for instance giavazzi and pagano 1988 have argued that because the bundesbank is known to follow a consistent credible anti inflation policy tying policy to that of germany should enhance one s reputation a natural question to ask therefore is to what degree have monetary policies in the ems converged to that conducted by germany a finding of complete convergence among ems monetary policies would imply that the member countries have converged to one common monetary policy in studies examining the credibility hypothesis which clearly is linked to the notion of monetary policy convergence fratianni and von hagen 1990c and burdekin westbrook and willett 1993 rejected this hypothesis 2 to consider the prospects for the success of emu one must know whether and to what degree there has been a transmission of policy actions within the ems the question of whether germany has set the direction of monetary policy for the ems is a natural focus and has been the subject of recent study fratianni and von hagen 1990a 1990b 1990c von hagen and fratianni 1990 and kutan 1991 1992 all reject the hypothesis that german monetary policy actions dominate the monetary policy decisions of other ems countries 3 while germany is found to be an important player in setting monetary policy its actions are not independent of other members in contrast to this conclusion karfakis and moschos 1990 and macdonald and taylor 1991 argue that non german ems members policies are related closely to german policy changes and that german policy actions do not respond to those taken by the central banks of other ems countries this study tests for policy convergence among ems countries within a long run framework using cointegration procedures using both short term interest rates and the monetary base as measures of monetary policy our aim is to determine the number of shared common stochastic trends among ems monetary policies and test whether a complete convergence of policies has been achieved in the ems rejection of complete convergence a finding of two or more shared common trends indicates that some countries policies are set independently at least in the long run if this is true then the notion that the bundesbank dominates ems policy is rejected such a result also suggests that any credibility gain from tying policy to that of germany is probably outweighed by other considerations such as domestic growth or international competitiveness looking ahead our results indicate that ems monetary policies have not converged we also investigate the short run connection among policy measures using a longer sample than in previous work our results from this analysis indicate that while german policy actions influence monetary policy in other ems countries in the short run there is substantial policy interaction among ems members the format of the paper is as follows section ii discusses some methodological issues concerning the use of interest rates and the monetary base as indicators of policy actions

european monetary union a cointegration analysis this paper employs systems based cointegration techniques developed by johansen 1988 1995 to determine which european union countries would form a successful economic and monetary union emu based on long run behavior of the nominal convergence criteria laid down in the maastricht treaty the original 12 european union countries are analyzed together nominal exchange rates real exchange rates longterm interest rates and government budget deficits are each analyzed for co movements among the 12 countries and various subgroups of them the results suggest that not all of the 12 original countries of the european union could possibly form a successful emu over time unless several countries made significant adjustments

sources and propagation of international output cycles common shocks or transmission abstract this paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multi country model with production and consumption interdependencies two sources of disturbance are considered and three channels of propagation are compared technology disturbances which are mildly correlated across countries are more successful than government expenditure disturbances in reproducing actual data the presence of a common component to the shocks and of production interdependencies appear to be crucial in quantitatively matching the properties of the data