the impact of fiscal policy on profits i introduction a large number of policy making decisions rely on the key issue of the impact of fiscal policy on the economy therefore it is not surprising that the effect of fiscal policy on macroeconomic aggregates has been extensively studied in the empirical literature 1 several authors starting with blanchard and perotti 2002 have attempted to estimate the effect of government spending shocks on output and other variables in the context of structural var models see perotti 2008 for a survey this interest has been renewed since the 2008 2009 recession given the unprecedented size of fiscal packages worldwide barro and redlick 2009 hall 2009 an important part of this literature focuses on the theoretical and empirical investigation of the fiscal policy transmission channels theories of fiscal policy transmission differ in their implications regarding the response of different macroeconomic variables to government spending shocks for example the neoclassical model predicts a negative impact of government spending on real wages and consumption while this prediction is challenged by new keynesian models to that end an important branch of empirical literature on fiscal multipliers has investigated the transmission channels of fiscal policy by looking mainly at the response of private consumption and real wages 2 this paper deals with an important but relatively under investigated channel of fiscal policy transmission which is the effect of fiscal policy on profits as pointed out by hall 2009 the impact of fiscal shocks on the markup of price over marginal cost is important for understanding the functioning of the fiscal multiplier in the purely neoclassical general equilibrium model a rise in government spending produces a negative wealth effect the labor supply curve shifts outward and real wages and consumption fall this implies that the output multiplier will be well below unity a keynesian type fiscal multiplier implying a large positive output effect and positive responses of private consumption and real wages to increased government spending relies on a negative response of the markup of price over marginal cost to an increase in economic activity the intuition is that a decrease in the price marginal cost markup in response to higher government spending allows a rise in wages or at least a smaller reduction in wages compared with the case when the markup is constant a rise in wages would then imply that households will substitute away from leisure and into consumption therefore if the markup is countercyclical conditional on government spending shocks sizeable output multipliers of fiscal spending are consistent with existing empirical evidence that fiscal shocks are not related to strong decreases in real wages or consumption blanchard and perotti 2002 fatas and mihov 2001 gall david lopez salid and valles 2007 perotti 2005 2008 in general a new keynesian model with sticky prices implies a countercyclical markup ratio as input prices rise in a boom while output prices stay constant however for understanding the fiscal policy transmission the key factor is markup and not price stickiness itself as a countercyclical markup could also be implied by models with flexible prices when the desired markup changes in response to a shock 3 a model which assigns a central role to markups for fiscal policy transmission has been presented by ravn schmitt grohe and uribe 2007 assuming that demand has a price inelastic component that is a function of deep habits a government spending shock that leads to a positive output response increases the share of the price elastic component of demand causing a rise in the overall demand elasticity and a corresponding decline in the optimal markup 4 thus for a sufficient decline in the markup the resulting rise in wages induces households to substitute away from leisure and into consumption thereby more than offsetting the negative wealth effect of government spending predicted by the neoclassical model

user cost changes unemployment and home ownership evidence from spain this paper develops a macroeconomic model that permits analysis of the relationship between unemployment and home ownership rates using aggregate data at the provincial level within spain besides other influential variables such as the changes of the relative user costs of owning and renting or household life cycle attributes the model constructed permits the authors to question the evidence of oswald nickell and layard and partially of green and hendershott that home ownership leads to higher unemployment the results point out that taking into account the simultaneity determination issue and reducing the omitted variable bias a higher unemployment discourages home ownership

wage norms capital accumulation and unemployment a post keynesian view the paper presents a post keynesian view of unemployment it argues first that the effective labour demand need not be downward sloping with respect to real wages and aggregate demand need not be downward sloping with respect to inflation second that there is a broad case for unemployment hysteresis understood as endogeneity of the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu based on social norms in wage bargaining and on the supply side effects of capital accumulation and third that much as keynes argued capital investment rather than labour market institutions is the key variable to explain changes in aggregate unemployment performance across countries and over time overall the paper advocates a keynesian view of the nairu where effective demand determines unemployment in the short run and the deviation of actual unemployment from the nairu determines the change in inflation in the medium term the nairu is endogenous and follows actual unemployment copyright 2011 oxford university press

mass education or a minority well educated elite in the process of growth the case of india abstract this paper analyzes whether mass education is more growth enhancing in developing countries than having a minority well educated elite using indian census data as a benchmark and enrollment rates at different levels of education we compute annual attainment levels for a panel of 16 indian states from 1961 to 2001 results indicate that if the reduction in illiteracy stops at the primary level of education it is not worthwhile for growth instead the findings reveal a strong and significant effect on growth of a greater share of population completing tertiary education the economic impact is also found to be large a one percent change in tertiary education has the same effect on growth as a 13 decrease in illiteracy rates a sensitivity analysis shows the results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables structural breaks reverse causation or atypical observations

consumer demand and equilibrium unemployment in a working model of the customer market incentive wage economy though not conceived as a constant the natural unemployment rate was taken to be invariant to supply shocks until the late seventies and to real demand shocks until now the largely micro theoretic model here is one in a series deriving the natural rate path from general equilibrium in this model the labor market exhibits generalized real wage rigidity resulting from the use of incentive wages to combat shirking and the asset backing shares is the firms customers arising from customer market friction one finding is that increased consumer demand drives up the natural rate by driving real interest rates up

flexing muscle corporate political expenditures as signals to the bureaucracy when corporations and their employees spend money in the political arena to what extent are they purchasing special treatment complaints about the deleterious effects of corporate money in politics are ubiquitous in american political discourse however in order to pinpoint the place of these expenditures in american democracy and to appreciate fully the consequences of various reform proposals itiscriticaltoidentifytheprecisemechanism through which any preferential treatment might occur in this spirit scholars have suggested that corporations make political expenditures because they hope to influence government behavior through either explicit quid pro quos with legislators for constituency service or favorable votes baron 1989 grossman and helpman 1994 2001 improved access to legislators hall and wayman 1990 langbein 1986 or enhancement of the electoral prospects of sympathetic incumbents pooleandromer1985 empiricalevidenceverifying a definitive relationship between expenditures and specific policy change unfortunately has proven elusive in a recent review essay ansolabehere de figueiredo and snyder 2003 116 conclude contributions explain a miniscule fraction of the variation in voting behavior in the u s congress they suggest thatcontributionsarebetterthoughtofasconsumption goods that fulfill a desire to participate in politics than as investment in a political marketplace

electoral uncertainty fiscal policy and macroeconomic fluctuations abstract in this paper we study the link between elections fiscal policy and aggregate fluctuations the setup is a stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating both technology and political re election shocks the latter are incorporated via a two party model with elections the main theoretical prediction is that forward looking incumbents with uncertain prospects of re election find it optimal to follow relatively shortsighted fiscal policies and that this hurts capital accumulation our econometric estimation using u s data finds a statistically significant link between electoral uncertainty and policy instruments and in turn macroeconomic outcomes

corporate campaign contributions repeat giving and the rewards to legislator reputation abstract are politicians who follow a strategy of reputational development rewarded with high levels of corporate campaign contributions reputational clarity could help to reduce uncertainty about a candidate and lead to greater campaign contributions from favored interests alternatively such clarity could alienate those who disagree and prevent the politician from obtaining contributions from groups on both sides of an issue we outline an approach that considers conditions under which a politician would or would not prefer reputational development and policy stance clarity and consistency in the context of repeat dealing with special interests our proxy for reputational development is the percentage of repeat givers to a legislator using data on corporate political action committee pac contributions to members of the u s house during the seven electoral cycles from 1983 84 to 1995 96 we explore a variety of alternative hypotheses and find that greater reputational development is rewarded with g

does public sector efficiency matter revisiting the relation between fiscal size and economic growth in a world sample this paper revisits the relationship between fiscal size and economic growth our work differs from the empirical growth literature because this relationship depends explicitly on the efficiency of the public sector we use a sample of 64 countries both developed and developing in four five year time periods between 1980 and 2000 building on the work of afonso et al public choice 123 321 347 2005 we construct a measure of public sector efficiency in each country and each time period by calculating an output to input ratio in addition we get an estimate of technical efficiency of public spending for 52 countries from 1995 to 2000 by employing a stochastic frontier analysis using these two measures we find evidence of a non monotonic relation between fiscal size and economic growth that depends critically on the size efficiency mix

optimal taxation and intergovernmental transfer in a dynamic model with multiple levels of government abstract in this paper we study the optimal choices of the federal income tax federal transfers and local taxes in a dynamic model of capital accumulation and with explicit game structures among multiple private agents multiple local governments and the federal government in general the optimal local property tax is zero if the local property tax is constrained to be nonnegative whereas the optimal local consumption tax is always positive when the local consumption tax is chosen optimally the federal income tax can be either positive or negative for most reasonable parameter values our numerical calculations have shown that with a positive local consumption tax there exists a reverse transfer from local governments to the federal government

is the relationship between financial development and economic growth monotonic evidence from a sample of middle income countries summary we revisit the relationship between financial development and economic growth in a panel of 52 middle income countries over the 1980 2008 period using pooled mean group estimations in a dynamic heterogeneous panel setting we show that there is an inverted u shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run in the short run the relationship is insignificant this suggests that too much finance can exert a negative influence on growth in middle income countries the finding of a non monotonic effect of financial development on growth is confirmed by estimating a threshold model

taxes federal grants local public spending and growth abstract in a dynamic model with both private and local public capital accumulation this paper examines how federal and local income taxes local consumption tax and federal matching grants for local public consumption and local public investment affect the long run equilibrium equilibria of private consumption private capital accumulation local public consumption and local public capital stock

the short and the long run relationship between fiscal decentralization and public expenditure composition in italy this article is an original contribution to the understanding of the relationship between fiscal decentralization and public expenditure composition relying on recent panel cointegration techniques our findings show that the level of decentralization influences the expenditure composition of the italian regional administrations in the long run

state infrastructure and productive performance recent research on productivity growth has focused on public infrastructure and its impact on economic growth and productivity the authors construct a model of firms technology and behavior taking advantage of the analytical framework provided in the cost function based applied production theory literature and apply it to state level data for u s manufacturing they find that infrastructure investment provides a significant return to manufacturing firms and augments productivity growth the net benefits of infrastructure investment may or may not be positive depending upon the social costs of infrastructure investment and the relative growth rates of output and infrastructure copyright 1996 by american economic association

public budgetary rules and gdp growth an empirical study on oecd and twelve european countries we study the long term effects of budgetary rules on gdp growth rate and analyse the determinants of the short term gdp growth dynamics for both a sample of 19 oecd and a subsample of 12 european countries we show that in the long run improvements in the cyclically adjusted budget balance as well as increases in the tax burden have negative effects on gdp growth the highest effect of fiscal policy on gdp growth would be obtained if the structural deficits were used to increase the market size by reducing the tax burden in line with barro 1990 a deficit financed reduction of tax burden has a stronger effect for european than for oecd countries because in europe the government size with respect to market size is too large therefore if gdp growth is a dominant policy objective in europe specific actions should redress the 2012 treaty toward a reduction of the tax burden

childhood preventive care adult healthcare and economic growth the role of healthcare financing we analyze the impact of healthcare financing on economic growth focusing on the issue of the joint public private financing of healthcare co payment we use an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth based on health human capital accumulation where families pay for childhood preventive care and the government can either fully finance or co finance adulthood curative care from a growth maximizing perspective distortionary taxes give an advantage to co financing nevertheless we prove that if agents are assumed to be heterogeneous in preferences full financing can become the best option

getting help from abroad the macroeconomics of foreign direct investment in infrastructure in low income countries infrastructure financing needs in most low income countries are substantial but funding for such needs is only partly covered by national governments and aid donors this paper introduces foreign direct investment fdi through public private partnerships as a source of infrastructure financing in low income countries a two sector open economy model is developed to assess the macroeconomic performance of fdi in infrastructure with efficient foreign investment an increase in revenue generating infrastructure investment boosts productivity and spurs private investment while stabilizing domestic prices a direct comparison between infrastructure financed by domestic versus foreign investment shows that foreign investment creates higher output growth and welfare gains and is preferable to domestically sourced investment irrespective of the underlying financing instrument the domestic economy is employing fdi in non revenue generating infrastructure is also analyzed and discussed

unemployment in britain male unemployment in britain has risen from around 2 per cent in the 1950s to around 17 per cent in 1985 see figure 1 the figures are for male unemployment because there is no consistent series for women 1 even more remarkably unemployment has fallen in only three years out of the last twenty 1973 1978 and 1979 to account for this we need a model that explains both changes in the natural or non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu and deviations from it we use a three equation supply side model centred on the labour market this has two main features the first concerns the determination of employment in the short run the labour demand function that we use cuts through the fruitless debate now raging especially in europe as to whether current unemployment is classical or keynesian according to the classical view employment is too high because real wages are too high according to the keynesian view real wages are not binding and unemployment is high because the product market does not clear with prices too high relative to nominal demand the whole debate is set in the framework of perfect competition yet in perfect competition prices are set by impersonal forces and it is not clear what could possibly stop prices clearing the market it is much more reasonable to think of prices as being set by imperfectly competitive firms existing prices being the best they can think of given the demand they face in this context firms demand for labour will depend on both the real product wage and the level of real aggregate demand this is the demand function we estimate and it conforms both to common sense and to the data however this does not imply that employment can be made to grow without limit by pumping up real demand for in the medium term when price surprises are eliminated our model determines three variables employment real wages and real demand on the basis of three equations an employment equation a price equation and a wage equation thus in the medium term there is a natural level of employment and corresponding to this a natural level of real aggregate demand the second key feature of our model concerns the medium term determination of unemployment in the medium term the planned mark up of wages over prices in wage settlements must be consistent with the mark up of prices over wage costs in employers pricing behaviour for if wage setters try to set real product wages higher than is consistent with employers pricing behaviour this generates ever increasing inflation thus the key to understanding unemployment in the medium term is the behaviour of wage setters if events occur that push them towards too high real wages then unemployment has to rise to offset these influences we shall call these influences wage pressure variables or push factors and they are clearly crucial in understanding unemployment the variables here include the social security system employment protection

fiscal spending and economic growth some stylized facts using an event analysis this paper complements the cross country approach to the study of fiscal correlates of growth data on fiscal expenditures and growth for a database of 140 countries 118 developing countries over 1972 2005 are reorganized around turning points providing a summary but encompassing description of what is in the data for this sample the probability of occurrence of a fiscal event is about 10 and the probability of a growth event once a fiscal event had occurred is around 26 for developing countries fiscal events followed by growth events occur under situations of i significantly lesser deficit ii fewer resources devoted to non interest general public services and iii shift in primary expenditures toward transport communication after controlling for the growth inducing effects of positive terms of trade shocks and of trade liberalization reform probit estimates indicate that a growth event is more likely to occur in a developing country when surrounded by a fiscal event moreover the probability of occurrence of a growth event in the years following a fiscal event is greater the lower is the associated fiscal deficit confirming that success of a growth oriented fiscal expenditure reform is associate with a stabilized macroeconomic environment through limited primary fiscal deficit

welfare maximizing vs growth maximizing shares of government investment and consumption abstract this paper examines the relationship between economic growth and the investment and consumption components of government spending by modifying a specification of barro s journal of political economics 1990 98 s103 s125 model to prevent asymmetry in the production process the predictions are consistent with existing empirical findings

banks regional development disparity and growth evidence from turkey in this paper we analyse the impact of credits provided by banks on provincial growth in turkey where state owned banks have an implicit role of reducing disparity by allocating loans in underdeveloped regions that are ignored by private banks we find a paradoxical effect of state owned banks on regional development their credits contribute significantly to the growth of more developed provinces whereas they fail to encourage the well being of less developed provinces on the other hand credits provided by private banks in general positively impact the per capita real gross domestic product gdp in both developed and less developed provinces contrary to their purpose of existence our results suggest that state owned banks did not reduce economic disparity among turkish provinces in the trade off between growth and income disparity our results suggest that state owned banks should improve their lending behaviour especially in the less developed regions in order to broaden their development role to the whole economy copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

public investment in infrastructure in a simple growth model abstract in this paper we examine the implications for capital accumulation when infrastructure enters as an external input into private production functions in our model infrastructure is nonexclusive but may exhibit varying degrees of nonrivalry revenues from uniform taxes on capital and labor income are used to finance public investment in infrastructure we show that the optimal tax rate is independent of the degree of nonrivalry when production exhibits constant returns to augmentable factors the equilibrium displays constant growth for most parameters the growth rate depends on the population size under decreasing returns the optimal trajectory exhibits monotonic convergence to a steady state level

government spending corruption and economic growth there is considerable debate over the effects of both corruption and government spending on growth but few studies have considered how the interaction between them might affect economic growth this paper provides a contribution to the debate starting wigth an endogenous growth model and extending it to account for the effects of corruption on components of government spending namely military and investment spending it then illustrates the non negligible indirect effects of corruption on military spending and government investment expenditure using model simulations the resulting model is then estimated on a comprehensive panel of 106 countries and the results show that the interactions between corruption and investment and corruption and military spending have strong negative impacts on economic growth the results also indicate important complementarities between corruption and military spending suggesting that combating corruption will not only have direct positive effects but is also likely to have positive indirect effects through reducing the size of the negative impact of the military burden they are also found to be robust across different measures of corruption levels of economic development and groupings of countries this suggests that policies to reduce corruption combined with those to reduce military burdens such as regional security agreements would have a considerable impact on economic growth

coping with poor public capital abstract despite recent successes in stabilization and structural reforms in many developing countries the private investment response to date has been mixed even among the strongest reformers this disappointing result can be partly explained by the continued poor provision of public capital and services we test this hypothesis using unique firm level data on investment and provision of public infrastructure services the results suggest that poor complementary public capital significantly reduces private investment however firms can substitute for deficient public services by investing in complementary capital themselves but this comes at a cost less productive capital will be installed

macroeconomic shocks in a dynamized model of the natural rate of unemployment at the microeconomic level this paper revises and broadens the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment the natural rate in a monetary model the authors begin by recreating steven salop s turnover model of the natural rate in its naturally intertemporal version useful findings on impact effects and the adjustment process at the individual firm necessarily excluded by the static version are shown to derive from the dynamized model at the macroeconomic level the authors then provide a general equilibrium analysis of some shocks showing how they drive the equilibrium unemployment rate and in varying ways also disturb the real rate of interest copyright 1992 by american economic association

distribution aggregate demand and unemployment in oecd countries the primary aim of this paper is to investigate the role of income distribution in the determination of unemployment to this end the author develops a post keynesian model that shows that unemployment is effectively determined by income distribution aggregate demand and the inadequacy of capital equipment the deriv ed unemployment equation is applied to ten large industrial countries o ver the period 1976 89 the empirical findings provide strong support fo r the hypothesis that shifts in income distribution and inadequacy of capital equipment are major sources of unemployment copyright 1993 by royal economic society

the keynesian multiplier effect reconsidered the keynesian multiplier effect is reinterpreted and several issues that may have misled assessments of the effect of fiscal spending are discussed it is shown that even in the textbook keynesian framework some transfer policy reduces aggregate demand and that public works spending may completely crowd out private consumption useless public works are found to be equivalent to transfers although they increase accounting national income more than transfers do the net effect of fiscal spending on national benefits is explored and shown to equal only the direct benefit created by the spending

general equilibrium macroeconomic models of unemployment can they explain the unemployment path in the oecd several theories which seek to explain the high and apparently persistent unemployment in the oecd countries over the past two decades have arisen within the framework of imperfections in the goods and labour markets probably the most prominent theories within this class of models are the general equilibrium models of phelps 1994 layard and nickell 1986 and layard et al 1991 labelled structuralist theories of unemployment by phelps 1994 common to the structuralist theories is that the low frequency movements in unemployment or the nairu are determined by structural variables such as unemployment benefits taxes real interest rates etc however the high frequency movements in unemployment are determined by wage and price surprises and in the layard and nickell 1986 model also by cyclical mark ups employment is entirely determined by the firms willingness to supply and the firms are never sales constrained by contrast the general equilibrium model of sarantis 1993 which is in post keynesian spirit suggests that unemployment on all frequencies is mainly an outcome of demand side factors in this model imperfections in the goods and labour markets are less important determinants of unemployment in this paper i estimate the extent to which the models of phelps 1994 layard and nickell 1986 henceforth l n and sarantis 1993 are able to explain the unemployment path of the oecd countries using annual data over the period 1960 to 1993 the theoretical set up of the models is presented in section 1 and the empirical estimates are set out in section 2

a stagnationist model of economic growth in an economy subject to persistent excess capacity demand related factors will play a key role in determining patterns of secular change this thesis has a long history in econ omics sometimes in the underworld and occasionally at the height of fashion as recounted by rowthorn 1982 recent manifestations in the first world are the theories of monopoly capitalism of baran and sweezy 1966 and steindl 1952 who in turn follow kalecki 1971 hobson 1902 luxemburg 1951 and the marx of realisation crises and reproduction schemes in volume ii of capital other radicals such as boddy and crotty 1975 add a profit squeeze explanation of the cycle which underlays the dynamics of the growth model specified here in developing countries difficulties in both realisation and sectoral proportions are emphasised as obstacles to growth witness lustig s 1980 review of latin american structuralist theory and dutt s 1984 model which formalises an ongoing controversy in india about how income redistribution might affect prospects for industrialisation all these authors are stagnationist in assuming that both the growth rate and the level of capacity utilisation can be different under different conditions of income distribution and or macroeconomic policy their preferred policies will presumably lead to greater equality increase utilisation or step up growth they typically ask two analytical ques tions how does output respond in the short run to shifts in the income distribution how do output adjustments feed back into distributional dynamics especially under conditions when price and wage inflation rates may be influenced by employment levels productivity changes and conflicting income claims in what follows we set out a simple model to address these questions and explore the implications for macroeconomic policy of the answers that arise since the approach is not familiar to economists with a standard training a verbal description of the growth model is given first those who wish to jump directly into a formal presentation can proceed to section 1 output x is assumed to meet demand in an instantaneous short run we measure activity as the ratio of firms net cash inflow to the value of capital stock i e the rate of profit r during the short run the price level p is fixed by a mark up rule p 1 x wb where r is the mark up rate w the money wage and b the labor output ratio with this rule the share of profits or mark up income in the value of output is r l t let u stand for the output capital ratio or capacity utilization xik by simple identity

campaign spending in congressional elections campaign spending in congressional elections i introduction empirical studies of the effects of campaign spending on the outcome of congressional elections have found that campaign spending by incumbents is not as effective as that of their challengers indeed kau and rubin 1982 and jacobson 1985 1987 find that incumbent spending reduces the number of votes they receive and netter 1983 that it increases the challenger s votes incumbents seeking reelection however are very successful winning nine times out of ten in the postwar era if their campaign spending is so inefficient why do incumbents continue to outspend their challengers in a majority of elections we argue that these researchers counterintuitive findings are the result of using models which do not adequately correct for the simultaneous determination of the election outcome and campaign contributions and which do not include an electoral check on incumbent behavior 1 in their studies jacobson and netter as well as lott 1986 and laband and lentz 1985 assume the incumbent s ability to repel challengers is independent of his or her behavior while in office few would agree that the electoral check is so ineffective we develop a simultaneous model to correct these deficiencies it captures the effects of campaign expenditures tenure the consistency of the incumbent s votes with his constituents preferences and the size of the voter turnout on the votes received by incumbents and challengers in four congressional elections between 1978 and 1984 the model is very robust over these four elections the use of primary election data insures model identification ii model and empirical measures we assume that the platforms of any two candidates for a political office can be measured along a single left right spectrum voters know their preferred position on the dimension but cannot observe the positions of the two candidates with certainty because of rational ignorance a theory accepted since downs 1957 following congleton 1986 we assume voters are risk averse and receive more utility from candidates with positions closer to the voters preferred position but lose utility as the candidate s position becomes more uncertain voters compare the candidates and vote for the one that provides them greater expected utility voters can observe the incumbent s performance and are thus less uncertain of his views and credibility uncertainty should decrease with an incumbent s tenure in office tenure provides voters with knowledge of the incumbent s position and the incumbent with political capital this accumulation of political capital may make it more difficult for challengers to mount a successful campaign in this sense tenure acts as a barrier to entry 2 if all incumbents were at the same point on the spectrum as the median voter of their districts all incumbents would win reelection if all potential challengers were aware of this fact they would not challenge since campaigns are costly but one observes many challengers and some defeated incumbents so we proceed from the hypothesis that challengers enter the race when they perceive a gap between the position of the incumbent and that of the median voter and assume this position as their platform a large difference between the incumbent s position and the median voter s position increases the likelihood of a successful challenge if voters were certain of the positions of both candidates and the challenger s assessment was correct the challenger would win but challengers are usually less well known than incumbents and this additional uncertainty gives incumbents an advantage thus the challenger must convince the voters that his or her position is closest to the median voter s position and advertising is the primary means to that end 3 repetition of the message reduces the voters uncertainty over a challenger s position

why is there so little money in u s politics in this paper we argue that campaign contributions are not a form of policy buying but are rather a form of political participation and consumption we summarize the data on campaign spending and show through our descriptive statistics and our econometric analysis that individuals not special interests are the main source of campaign contributions moreover we demonstrate that campaign giving is a normal good dependent upon income and campaign contributions as a percent of gdp have not risen appreciably in over 100 years if anything they have probably fallen we then show that only one in four studies from the previous literature support the popular notion that contributions buy legislators votes finally we illustrate that when one controls for unobserved constituent and legislator effects there is little relationship between money and legislator votes thus the question is not why there is so little money politics but rather why organized interests give at all we conclude by offering potential answers to this question this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

serial correlation and the fixed effects model this paper generalizes the durbin watson type statistics to test the ols residuals from the fixed effects model for serial independence also generalized are the tests proposed by sargan and bhargava for the hypothesis that the residuals form a random walk a method for efficient estimation of the parameters is also developed finally an earnings function is estimated using the michigan survey of income dynamics in order to illustrate the uses of the tests and the estimation procedures developed in this paper

time series evidence on the nonlinearity hypothesis for public spending i introduction endogenous growth theories differ from exogenous growth theories with respect to their assumed relationships between economic growth and policy variables in contrast to their exogenous counterparts endogenous growth theories suggest various channels through which growth can be affected by government policies one of these channels is assumed to be due to supply side effects of productive public spending on infrastructure human capital accumulation legal protection and so on which can be viewed as factors for private production therefore increases in productive public spending will increase the economy s overall productivity and thus enhance growth empirical cross country studies investigating the relationship between government and growth such as ram 1986 barro 1991 easterly and rebelo 1993 and levine and renelt 1992 have produced rather ambiguous results ranging from inconclusive to contradictory an explanation for the failure to empirically resolve this issue could be that the relationship is nonlinear in nature as is suggested by the endogenous growth models like that of barro 1990 empirical studies that do not account for such nonlinearities may easily lead to inconclusive if not misleading answers to the question of how fiscal policy affects economic growth by incorporating productive public spending into the production function barro 1990 demonstrates theoretically that the relationship between growth and government size i e the share of public spending in gross domestic product gdp may well be nonmonotonic in this case an optimal growth maximizing government size may exist such that additional public spending increases decreases growth if the government size is below above the optimum this result known as the nonlinearity hypothesis has also been suggested in the theoretical analyses of barro and sala i martin 1992 glomm and ravikumar 1994 lau 1995 and devarajan et al 1996 among others empirical studies investigating the optimal government size like barro 1990 devarajan et al 1996 kelly 1997 and karras 1993 1996 1997 rely on cross country data so does dowrick 1996 the only study explicitly examining the validity of the nonlinearity hypothesis these empirical studies assume that all countries have the same optimal government size and thus are notable to identify the individual countries optimal fiscal policy or the consequences from changes in government size in this article we derive implications of the nonlinearity hypothesis for time series models by investigating time series data of an individual country one can examine the validity of the nonlinearity hypothesis and analyze the country s fiscal policy jones 1995 kocherlakota and yi 1996 1997 and evans 1997 characterize endogenous growth models by the property that a permanent change in policy variables leads to a permanent change in the growth rate if growth effects due to changes in public spending depend on the deviation of public spending from its optimal level as the nonlinearity hypothesis suggests growth effects induced by a change in public spending should vary as government size varies unless the optimal spending level varies accordingly conducting time series studies jones 1995 evans 1997 and karras 1998 1999 conclude against endogenous growth which contrasts the conclusions of kocherlakota and yi 1996 1997 however by relying on linear models all these studies force growth effects from public policy to be constant therefore they prevent any analysis of nonlinear endogenous growth phenomena as implied by barro type models as we will argue if the nonlinearity hypothesis holds results from linear models may in fact be misleading the empirical analysis presented herein is based on quarterly west german time series data and examines two types of public spending public investment and public consumption as a proxy for productive public spending

the fisher hypothesis and the interaction between share returns inflation and supply shocks abstract recent tests reject the fisher hypothesis even when expected income growth is accommodated in the estimates this paper suggests that the coefficient of expected inflation is biased downwards when supply shock variables are omitted from standard tests of the fisher hypothesis because they simultaneously affect inflation and real profits using data for 16 oecd countries over the past four decades it is shown that the fisher hypothesis cannot be rejected when supply shock variables are accommodated in the estimates

unemployment questions and some answers in more or less every country in the oecd unemployment was lower in the decades following the second world war than in any other period of comparable length either before or since for example in britain unemployment has exceeded 5 in every peacetime decade from 1850 onwards except for the 1950s and 1960s alternatively as we can see in table 1 p 779 average unemployment in the 1980s and 90s is higher generally much higher than in the 1960s in every country considered why this is so is one of the questions which underlies this paper a second question which is also illustrated in the unemployment numbers presented in table 1 p 779 concerns the causes of the enormous variation in unemployment rates across the oecd countries as we shall see these are difficult questions the first in particular is one for which we do not have a complete answer by this i do not mean that we do not have theories which are broadly consistent with these numbers in fact we have theories consistent with more or less any numbers what we lack is a satisfactory empirical explanation of the time series pattern of oecd unemployment in what follows we remain focused on these two questions first considering the theoretical background and then looking at some possible answers we finish with some speculative conjectures on the first question

government size and economic growth a new framework and some evidence from cross section and time series data a study of the impact of government size on economic performance and growth is important theoretically one point of view suggests that a larger government size is likely to be detrimental to efficiency and economic growth because for example i government operations are often conducted inefficiently ii the regulatory process imposes excessive burdens and costs on the economic system and iii many of government s fiscal and monetary policies tend to distort economic incentives and lower the productivity of the system at the other extreme one can identify some points of view that assign to the government a critical role in the process of economic development and could argue that a larger government size is likely to be a more powerful engine of economic development there are several arguments on which the latter point of view is based these include besides others i role of the government in harmonizing conflicts between private and social interests ii prevention of exploitation of the country by foreigners and iii securing an increase in productive investment and providing a socially optimal direction for growth and development

public sector capital and the productivity puzzle a number of studies have suggested a quantitatively important relationship between public sector capital accumulation and private sector productivity with the most compelling evidence derived from analyses of state level data estimates herein of production functions that use standard techniques to control for unobserved state specific characteristics however reveal essentially no role for public sector capital in affecting private sector productivity only estimates of state production functions that do not include such controls find substantial productivity impacts this result reconciles existing econometric estimates with the findings of hulten and schwab based on growth accounting techniques as such techniques effectively control for state specific effects region level estimates are essentially identical to those from state data suggesting no quantitatively important spillover effects across states copyright 1994 by mit press

the ideological component of senate voting different principles or different principals evidence exists on both sides of the question of whether or not legislator specific ideologically driven shirking of constituent interest occurs in this paper we use a well known model of such shirking by senators as our point of departure and add measures of inter state constituent interests the role of campaign contributions and hence the importance of whether or not senators are up for reelection we find some evidence that the model provides a stronger explanation for senators up for reelection than for those who are not and that campaign contributions help determine voting decisions by these legislators finally accounting for inter state constituent interests shirking is not a significant variable in the voting decisions of senators facing reelection thus it appears that the reelection interests of some senators have been mistaken for ideologically driven shirking

health and other asset holdings despite clear evidence of correlations between financial and medical statuses and decisions most models treat financial and health related choices separately this article bridges this gap by proposing a tractable dynamic framework for the joint determination of optimal consumption portfolio holdings health investment and health insurance we solve for the optimal rules in closed form and capitalize on this tractability to gain a better understanding of the conditions under which separation between financial and health related decisions is sensible and of the pathways through which wealth and health determine allocations welfare and other variables of interest such as expected longevity or the value of health furthermore we show that the model is consistent with the observed patterns of individual allocations and provide realistic estimates of the parameters that confirm the relevance of all the main characteristics of the model

is public expenditure productive abstract this paper considers the relationship between aggregate productivity and stock and flow government spending variables the empirical results indicate that i the nonmilitary public capital stock is dramatically more important in determining productivity than is either the flow of nonmilitary or military spending ii military capital bears little relation to productivity and iii a core infrastructure of streets highways airports mass transit sewers water systems etc has most explanatory power for productivity the paper also suggests an important role for the net public capital stock in the productivity slowdown of the last fifteen years

votes or money theory and evidence from the us congress abstract this paper investigates the relationship between the size of interest groups in terms of voter representation and the interest group s campaign contributions to politicians we uncover a robust hump shaped relationship between the voting share of an interest group and its contributions to a legislator this pattern is rationalized in a simultaneous bilateral bargaining model where the larger size of an interest group affects the amount of surplus to be split with the politician thereby increasing contributions but is also correlated with the strength of direct voter support the group can offer instead of monetary funds thereby decreasing contributions the model yields simple structural equations that we estimate at the district level employing data on individual and pac donations and local employment by sector this procedure yields estimates of electoral uncertainty and politicians effectiveness as perceived by the interest groups our approach also implicitly delivers a novel method for estimating the impact of campaign spending on election outcomes we find that an additional vote costs a politician on average 145

the rise in unemployment a multi country study one of the most remarkable features of recent economic history has been the remorseless rise in unemployment throughout the industrialized countries however while the trend to higher unemployment is universal the experience of individual countries also differs widely the increase is especially marked within the european community where unemployment rates rival those reached in the interwar years by contrast in the scandinavian countries and japan unemployment is lower and has risen very much less experience in the united states lies somewhere between these extremes and in the last few years unemployment there has fallen sharply

the evolution and convergence of the government expenditure composition in the oecd countries in the light of models of composition ofgovernment expenditure and economic growthand the growing globalization process weinfer that countries should tend to asimilar structure of government spendingover time in fact using tukey box plotsand convergence we show evidenceof an approaching process in thecomposition of government expenditures inoecd countries for the period 1970 1997 wealso identify by means of cluster analysisthat most countries are converging towardstwo different models one including twelveeuropean and non european countries and theother composed solely of eight countries ofthe european union

the impact of fiscal decentralization on the composition of public expenditure panel data evidence from italy grisorio m j and prota f the impact of fiscal decentralization on the composition of public expenditure panel data evidence from italy regional studies this paper is an original contribution to the understanding of the relationship between fiscal decentralization and public expenditure composition it studies the effects of the ongoing decentralization process in italy on the share of different categories of public spending in total expenditure of the italian regional administrations over the period 1996 2008 the data used allow one to go beyond the usual distinction between current and capital expenditures and to present a functional classification of public expenditures through a panel data analysis the paper shows that the level of decentralization influences the composition of expenditure

efficiency adjusted public capital and growth summary this paper constructs an efficiency adjusted public capital stock series and re examines the public capital and growth relationship the paper also examines the effects of four specific stages of the public investment process appraisal selection implementation and evaluation on capital accumulation and growth the results show that public capital is a significant contributor to economic growth the quality of public investment as measured by variables capturing the adequacy of project selection and implementation is statistically significant in explaining variations in economic growth a result mainly driven by low income countries

does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis abstractthis paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth the paper applies a

indeterminacy and fiscal policies in a growing economy this paper studies the dynamic properties of a standard one sector model of endogenous growth with inelastic labor supply in which capital taxes are used to nance public production and consumption services the government is benevolent and chooses its tax policy by taking into account the decentralized competitive equilibrium within this second best setup we establish conditions for multiple balanced growth paths in conjunction with indeterminacy of transitional dynamics the mechanism for global and local indeterminacy is a simple combination of public production services that provide production externalities to private rms and hence cause a wedge between private and social returns public consumption services that provide direct utility to households and endogenously chosen distorting taxes

capital accumulation labour market institutions and unemployment in the medium run according to the mainstream view labour market institutions lmis are the key determinants of unemployment in the medium run the actual empirical explanatory power of measures for labour market institutions however has recently been called into question the keynesian view holds periods of high real interest rates and insufficient capital accumulation responsible for unemployment empirical work in this tradition has paid little attention to the role of lmis this paper contributes to the debate by highlighting the role of autonomous changes in capital accumulation as a macroeconomic shock in the empirical analysis medium term unemployment is explained by capital accumulation lmis and a number of macroeconomic shocks in a panel analysis covering 20 oecd countries the economic effects of changes in lmi variations in capital accumulation and other macro shocks are compared capital accumulation and the real interest rate are found to have statistically significant effects that are robust to the inclusion of control variables and show larger effects than lmi

government consumption and growth i introduction interest in formulating and testing growth models has surged in recent years following the seminal articles of romer 1986 and lucas 1988 the theoretical growth literature has primarily sought to endogenize the trend growth rate which had been treated as an exogenous parameter in the earlier vintage of growth models formulated by solow 1956 and cass 1965 inter alia although the goal of endogenizing trend growth rates is surely desirable it is still important to test whether trend growth rates are indeed better characterized as exogenous or endogenous many papers have attempted to do so unfortunately virtually all of them have used ordinary least squares to fit cross sectional regressions relating the average growth rate of per capita output over some period to its initial value and other country characteristics 1 my 1996a paper shows that this method produces seriously biased estimates and unreliable inferences this paper makes two contributions first using a simple stochastic growth model that nests both exogenous and endogenous growth it shows that the growth rate of output per capita should be mean stationary if growth is exogenous and should be difference stationary if growth is endogenous and any difference stationary variable affects investment specifically if the share of output devoted to government consumption is difference stationary the growth rate should be mean stationary or difference stationary depending on whether growth is exogenous or endogenous furthermore the growth rate should be negatively related to the share of output devoted to exhaustive government consumption if and only if growth is endogenous the second contribution is to test whether growth is exogenous or endogenous data for 92 countries over the period 1960 to 1989 strongly support the mean stationarity of the growth rate of per capita output and are consistent with the difference stationarity of the share of output devoted to government consumption moreover the growth rate is not significantly related to the government share these two findings support the exogeneity of growth finally the relationship is precisely estimated to be weak if not nonexistent hence even if growth is endogenous the degree of endogeneity is likely to be small 2 the rest of the paper is organized as follows section ii formulates a simple stochastic growth model for demonstrating the basic theoretical results section iii investigates whether growth rates are mean stationary and whether shares of output devoted to government consumption are difference stationary section iv examines whether and how growth rates and government shares are related to each other finally section v summarizes the paper and offers a few conclusions ii theoretical discussion this section lays out a simple and tractable stochastic growth model that nests both exogenous and endogenous growth the model is special in many ways because several restrictive assumptions are made for the sake of tractability nevertheless results similar to the ones derived below should hold in a wide class of models consider a closed economy inhabited by a government and a household that lives in periods t 0 1 2 the sole activity of the government is exhaustively consuming g which is financed by a proportional tax on gross output y at the rate tau its budget constraint is therefore 1 g sub t tau sub t y sub t i assume that government consumption is set so that 2 g sub t ln 1 g sub t y sub t is a driftless difference stationary process the household is endowed with one unit of labor which it supplies completely inelastically each period a positive initial capital stock and a technology 3 mathematical expression omitted 0 less than alpha less than or equal to 1 t 0 1 2

a simple time series test of endogenous vs exogenous growth models an application to the united states this paper presents evidence supporting endogenous growth models that emphasize public structural capital the authors apply a simple test of endogenous vs exogenous growth models in exogenous growth economies temporary innovations to policy variables lead only to temporary changes in gnp levels while in endogenous growth economies the innovations can lead to permanent changes in gnp levels of the seven u s policy variables they examine only non military equipment capital and non military structural capital have a statistically and economically significant effect upon long run gnp levels further estimation suggests that the non military equipment capital result is not robust and that several disaggregate components of structural capital contribute significantly copyright 1996 by mit press

the composition of public expenditure and economic growth abstract noting that the literature has focused on the link between the level of public expenditure and growth we derive conditions under which a change in the composition of expenditure leads to a higher steady state growth rate of the economy the conditions depend not just on the physical productivity of the different components of public expenditure but also on the initial shares using data from 43 developing countries over 20 years we show that an increase in the share of current expenditure has positive and statistically significant growth effects by contrast the relationship between the capital component of public expenditure and per capita growth is negative thus seemingly productive expenditures when used in excess could become unproductive these results imply that developing country governments have been misallocating public expenditures in favor of capital expenditures at the expense of current expenditures

the economic theory of vertical restraints the types of contracts arising in a typical vertical manufacturer retailer relationship are more sophisticated than a simple uniform price in addition to setting per unit prices manufacturers and retailers also revert to non linear pricing and non price instruments these instruments or contracts are referred to as vertical restraints and can take the form of franchise fees resale price maintenance exclusive dealing exclusive territories and slotting allowances the use and the effects of one type of instrument versus another depend crucially on specific market assumptions upstream and downstream and on the division of bargaining power between manufacturers and retailers this paper surveys the industrial organization literature on retail pricing and shows that vertical restraint instruments have important effects on producer and consumer prices market structure efficiency and welfare

a simple test of the thesis that committee jurisdictions shape corporate pac contributions the results presented in the previous section tend to confirm the hypothesis that committee assignments shape the pattern of corporate pac contributions this note corroborates existing research on corporate pacs at a significantly lower level of aggregation than the samples on which existing research has been conducted further because a nonparametric test was used rather than the more standard regressional analysis these results should increase our confidence that the essential institutions of government affect and engender responses by economic agents

public investment and economic growth this article uses an extension of mankiw romer and weil s augmented solow swan growth model to examine whether public investment has a distinct role as a determinant of economic growth it considers both the predictions of the model in steady state and in transition to steady state for the steady state model there is no significant effect from public investment on the level of output per worker using standard ordinary least squares ols methods for the transition model it observes a significant contribution to economic growth from public investment when instrumental variables methods are used however the associated standard errors are much larger and the contribution of public investment is statistically insignificant

distributional effects of growth and public expenditures in africa estimates for tanzania and rwanda summary in this paper we explore the effects of fiscal policies and growth on measures of household welfare across the distribution of expenditures for two african countries rwanda and tanzania we explore the effect of government expenditures on expenditure growth in each quintile of the expenditure distribution and the effect of growth for each group we find that the benefits of growth are concentrated among the better off sectors of the population in these two countries perhaps to the detriment of the poorer sectors by looking at the effects within a country and across different groups of households and administrative entities we exploit variation in expenditures and growth across and within regions of each country to estimate the elasticities of expenditure with respect to fiscal expenditure and mean expenditure growth at different points of the expenditure distribution using household survey data and government expenditure data at the district level we find that overall mean expenditure growth benefits the top expenditure groups the welfare spillovers are mostly present for top 20 of the expenditure distribution with the middle of the distribution in tanzania responding slightly to these spillovers public social expenditures do not appear to affect inequality considerably but do tend to work toward decreasing inequality however mean expenditure growth is related to increases in inequality in the sense that the richest sectors of the population benefit the most from growth we find that the growth elasticity of expenditure is only above one for the top quintile in both countries in tanzania a 1 increase in average household expenditure is related to a 1 96 expenditure growth in the top quintile and 0 43 in the third quintile in rwanda a 1 increase in average household expenditure is related to a 1 93 increase in household expenditure in the top 20 of the distribution

the market for congressional votes is timing of contributions everything this study utilizes the timing of campaign contributions to identify whether the objective of political action committees pacs is to influence congressional votes or solely to elect a preferred candidate the results show that pac behavior is consistent with an attempt to purchase congressional votes and to influence elections contributions increase in the weeks surrounding legislative events of importance to pacs and elections the magnitude of increased contributions is examined the article also addresses the lack of legal enforcement mechanisms in vote for contribution agreements it develops hypotheses regarding the timing of contributions as an inexpensive mechanism to assure contractual performance hypotheses are tested regarding pacs incentives to mitigate potential cheating by legislators on such agreements results show that pacs use the timing of contributions as a mechanism to prevent legislators from reneging on vote for contribution trades

government expenditure and economic growth a cross country study this paper examines the relationship between the share of government consumption expenditure in gdp and the rate of growth of real per capita gdp the work of the u n international comparison project has recently made available new estimates for over 100 countries of both per capita gdp and the share of government consumption these new estimates are based on direct price comparisons rather than exchange rate conversions as a result the statistics for different countries are more comparable and cross country studies will be more reliable