wheat from chaff meta analysis as quantitative literature review abstract this paper presents and develops a quantitative method of literature reviewing and evaluating empirical research meta regression analysis or mra economics is theory driven yet we must learn empirically if economics is to advance mra offers a more objective statistical method to summarize our empirical knowledge and to explain the wide study to study variation in economic research mra is used to assess the evidence for ricardian equivalence and its findings are contrasted to those of conventional narrative review furthermore mra establishes a platform from which to distinguish genuine empirical effect from the exploitable specification error that infests applied econometrics

does exchange rate variability depress trade flows evidence from error correction models this paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of the g 7 countries in the context of a multivariate error correction model the error correction models do not show any sign of parameter instability the results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on the volume of exports in each of the g 7 countries assuming market participants are risk averse these results imply that exchange rate uncertainty causes them to reduce their activities change prices or shift sources of demand and supply in order to minimize their exposure to the effects of exchange rate volatility this in turn can change the distribution of output across many sectors in these countries it is quite possible that the surprisingly weak relationship between trade flows and exchange rate volatility reported in several previous studies are due to insufficient attention to the stochastic properties of the relevant time series copyright 1993 by mit press

exchange rate volatility and irish uk trade 1979 1992 this study examines how exchange rate volatility affected ireland s exports to its most important trading partner the united kingdom from 1979 to 1992 to ensure reliable inferences regarding income and price elasticities and the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports the time series properties of the series used are investigated the analysis here is conducted at both aggregate and 2 digit sitc division levels since exchange rate volatility can reasonably be presumed to affect sectors differently since expectations matter for exchange rate determination real volatility was generated according to a first order garch process both real and nominal volatility were important determinants for over 35 of irish uk trade with positive effects predominating this may be due to the nature of irish firms operating in a small open economy where they have little option in dealing with increased exchange rate risk except to weather the storm for fear of losing market share or facing costs of either exit

an investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in east asia abstractthis study investigates the effects of the exchange rate volatility on the export flows of indonesia malaysia republic of korea singapore thailand and the philippines during 1974 2011 towards this goal a trade weighted real effective rather than the bilateral exchange rate and three different measures of volatility i e obtained from an arch model a garch model and a moving average standard deviation measure are used in this study specifically the export flows between six asian countries and the rest of the world are investigated rather than focusing on trade with only one country our findings reveal that the exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on export flows in the short run as well as in the long run for all the countries in the sample the impact in the long run is predominantly negative with the exception of singapore but in the short run the impact varies across countries moreover our results are robust to the alternative measures of volatility used and most of

u s bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period abstract this paper tests for real exchange rate risk effects on u s bilateral trade flows during the floating period using several new as well as previously used risk measures significant negative effects occur in five of six u s import flows and in two of six u s export flows with one export flow showing a significant positive effect these results are consistent with several previous findings for aggregate u s trade two risk measures using the forward exchange rate and assuming a time varying risk premium provide marginally more significant results than the others

fixed versus flexible exchange rates and the measurement of exchange rate instability a recent study by rana that examined exchange rate instability in eight asian countries concluded that owing to the non normality of the underlying exchange rate distributions the standard deviation was an erratic and misleading measure of variability the present paper argues that the choice of a suitable measure of instability cannot be made on mathematical grounds alone rana s preferred measure is shown to be inappropriate since it excludes from consideration precisely those observations of greatest significance conversely given the assumption of risk aversion the standard deviation is an entirely consistent measure results are also presented for an expanded study covering more than 150 countries

conditional exchange rate volatility and the volume of foreign trade evidence from seven industrialized countries there has long been a concern over the volatility of exchange rates and their impact on the volume of foreign trade however very little attention has been paid to the choice of an appropriate volatility variable as well as the proper specification of the trade equation the sample standard deviation of the exchange rate has been used as a proxy for exchangerate uncertainty in empirical studies that examine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the volume of foreign trade see for example akhtar and hilton 1 and gotur 27 these studies have provided conflicting evidence on this issue it has been argued that use of the sample standard deviation is inappropriate because the empirical distribution of exchange rates is not normal 22 10 in this regard subsequent empirical research 12 36 40 41 11 has employed a moving standard deviation of the rate of change of the exchange rate as a proxy for exchange rate uncertainty chowdhury 11 obtained a clear pattern of results that support the hypothesis that the higher volatility of exchange rates led to a reduction in international trade transactions after the breakdown of the bretton woods system in march 1973 other studies have reported ambiguous results 2 the moving standard deviation used in these studies has been criticized in the literature for a ignoring relevant information on the random process generating exchange rates 18 b underestimating the effect of volatility on decisions 52 c distorting the measurement of the volatility variable by smoothing the series 9 and d injecting an element of arbitrariness into the calculation through decisions about the order m of the moving average 43 3

exchange rate volatility and foreign trade evidence from thirteen ldc s this article investigates empirically the impact of real exchange rate volatility on the export flows of 13 less developed countries ldc s over the quarterly period 1973 1996 estimates of the cointegrating relations are obtained using johansen s multivariate procedure estimates of the short run dynamics are obtained for each country using the error correction technique the major results show that increases in the volatility of the real effective exchange rate approximating exchange rate uncertainty exert a significant negative effect on export demand in both the short run and the long run in each of the 13 ldc s these effects may result in significant reallocation of resources by market participants

exchange rate volatility and aggregate export growth in bangladesh the long and short run determinants of bangladeshi export growth are examined these are modelled as depending on world trade volume bangladeshi and world export prices and exchange rate volatility several techniques are used to estimate and test hypotheses about the cointegration space of these variables we find that there are two plausible restricted cointegrating vectors one appears to be an export demand while the other is suggestive of an export supply these are then imposed on an error correction model estimates suggest that in the long run bangladeshi export growth is driven by the volume of world trade and is negatively and inelastically related to the volatility of bangladeshi exchange rates once these long run effects are accounted for it is found that none of the variables significantly explains any short run changes in export growth

sales growth of new pharmaceuticals across the globe the role of regulatory regimes prior marketing literature has overlooked the role of regulatory regimes in explaining international sales growth of new products this paper addresses this gap in the context of new pharmaceuticals 15 new molecules in 34 countries and sheds light on the effects of regulatory regimes on new drug sales across the globe based on a time varying coefficient model we find that differences in regulation substantially contribute to cross country variation in sales one of the regulatory constraints investigated i e manufacturer price controls has a positive effect on drug sales the other forms of regulation such as restrictions of physician prescription budgets and the prohibition of direct to consumer advertising dtca tend to hurt sales the effect of manufacturer price controls is similar for newly launched and mature drugs by contrast regulations on physician prescription budgets and dtca have a differential effect for newly launched and mature drugs whereas the former hurts mature drugs more the latter has a larger effect on newly launched drugs in addition to these regulatory effects we find that national culture economic wealth and lagged sales also affect drug sales our findings may be used as input by managers for international launch and marketing decisions they may also be used by public policy administrators to assess the role of regulatory regimes in pharmaceutical sales growth

the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade reduced form estimates using the garch in mean model abstract in this paper we use a multivariate garch in mean model of the reduced form of multilateral exports to examine the relationship between nominal exchange rate volatility and export flows and prices the model imposes rationality on perceived exchange rate volatility unlike conventional two step strategies tests are performed for five industrialized countries over the post bretton woods era we find that the garch conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the reduced form equations for all countries for most of the countries the magnitude of the effect is stronger for export prices than quantities in addition the estimated magnitude of the impact of volatility on exports is not robust to using the conventional estimation strategy jel f41 f31

the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on ldc manufactured exports abstract this paper uses pooled time series cross sectional data to conduct an empirical investigation of the relationship between real exchange rate uncertainty and the manufactured exports of developing countries export supply equations for four categories of manufactures are estimated using pooled data for ten countries over the period 1963 1985 evidence is found that some categories of ldc manufactured exports are negatively affected by real exchange rate uncertainty

the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports some new estimates investigations of the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports have not allowed for the integrated non stationary of the variables employed in estimation the results reported in this note are suggestive that in the context of an error correction framework real exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on exports

exchange rate volatility exchange rate regime and trade volume evidence from the uk us export function 1889 1999 abstract this paper investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility and exchange rate regime on the british exports to the united states using data for the period 1889 1999 the empirical findings suggest that neither exchange rate volatility nor the different exchange rate regimes that spanned the last century had an effect on export volume

beyond publication bias abstract this review considers several meta regression and graphical methods that can differentiate genuine empirical effect from publication bias publication selection exists when editors reviewers or researchers have a preference for statistically significant results because all areas of empirical research are susceptible to publication selection any average or tally of significant insignificant studies is likely to be biased and potentially misleading meta regression analysis can see through the murk of random sampling error and selected misspecification bias to identify the underlying statistical structures that characterize genuine empirical effect meta significance testing and precision effect testing pet are offered as a means to identify empirical effect beyond publication bias and are applied to four areas of empirical economics research minimum wage effects union productivity effects price elasticities and tests of the natural rate hypothesis

exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade abstract this paper starts with reviewing the existing literature on exchange rate uncertainty and trade flows it then argues that potential costs of medium term uncertainty in exchange rates and competitiveness are likely to be much larger than that of exchange risk which has been the focus of the existing literature two measures of medium term exchange rate uncertainty are constructed one is a weighted function of the magnitude of past movements in nominal exchange rates and the current deviation of the exchange rate from equilibrium while the second depends on both the duration and the amplitude of misalignment from equilibrium exchange rates the empirical evidence reported in the paper suggests that when exchange rate uncertainty is defined over a medium term period it does affect adversely trade flows of the industrial countries under review with the notable exception of the united states

the new internationalization of agriculture a reformulation abstract our research on the new internationalization of agriculture builds on analyses of the internationalization of capital and the new international division of labor but reformulates internationalization as a contingent political and economic process we argue that shifts in the institutional structure of capitalism in the 1980s profoundly altered national policy options and agro food markets states such as mexico puerto rico and the dominican republic have been compelled to promote agricultural exports typically at the expense of national food security while southern states pursue a common goal of international competitiveness this involves a varied process of domestic restructuring and differentiates states within the world economy

the effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade abstract by assuming real profit maximization and uncertain prices as well as exchange rates we conclude that it is uncertain percentage changes in the real exchange rate that are risky in international trade empirical estimation of fourteen bilateral trade flows among industrialized countries finds a significant negative effect on trade quantity from such risk in a number of these cases the expectation variable has a positive effect in a larger number of cases significant price effects from the expectation variable are fewer and from risk are negligible

sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on united states exports abstract we analyze the effects of real exchange rate volatility on the proportions of bilateral exports of nine categories of goods from the united states to seven major industrial countries using a fixed effect framework in six of the nine categories the volatility of the real exchange rate significantly affects the value of exports and in five of these categories the effect is positive these results are consistent with a model in which risk neutral firms increase supply of elastically demanded exports in response to an increase in the volatility of the real exchange rate

does exchange rate volatility affect import flows in g 7 countries evidence from cointegration models this paper provides new evidence on the long run relationship between imports and exchange rate volatility in g 7 countries the period examined is 1973 2 through 1995 1 cointegration analyses are based on johansen s 1991 1994 approach and robust single equation methods of stock and watson 1993 and phillips and loretan 1991 in conformity with theoretical considerations the results indicate that exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the volume of imports of most g 7 countries whereas for canada it is positive and significant these findings are reasonably robust in terms of measures of exchange rate volatility and different estimation methods

a meta analysis of the union nonunion wage gap the authors use meta regression analysis a new method for synthesizing empirical results reported in the economic literature to corroborate and extend h gregg lewis s landmark 1986 research on t

meta regression analysis a quantitative method of literature surveys abstract pedagogically literature reviews are instrumental they summarize the large literature written on a particular topic give coherence to the complex often disparate views expressed about an issue and serve as a springboard for new ideas however literature surveys rarely establish anything approximating unanimous consensus ironically this is just as true for the empirical economic literature to harmonize this dissonance we offer a quantitative methodology for reviewing the empirical economic literature meta regression analysis mra is the regression analysis of regression analyses mra tends to objectify the review process it studies the processes that produce empirical economic results as though they were any other social scientific phenomenon mra provides a framework for replication and offers a sensitivity analysis for model specification in this brief essay we propose a new method of reviewing economic literature mra and discuss its potential

real exchange rate volatility and international trade a reexamination of the theory one of the issues that have received considerable attention in the comparison of the properties of alternative exchange rate regimes is the effect of exchange rate risk on the volume of trade it has been argued that the higher volatility of exchange rates witnessed since the adoption of the floating regime in 1973 has led to a decrease in international trade transactions this is because most trade contracts are not for immediate delivery of goods and since they are denominated in terms of the currency of either the importer or the exporter unanticipated fluctuations in the exchange rate affect realized profits and hence the volume of trade it is implicitly assumed that forward exchange markets that can help traders eliminate this type of variations in profits either are not available as it is true for the majority of currencies because most are not fully convertible thereby impairing forward markets or for some reason they are not utilized to fully hedge exchange risk present in trade transactions the empirical evidence regarding the effect of exchange rate risk on trade has at best been inconclusive the large majority of the empirical studies are unable to establish a systematically significant link between exchange rate variability and the volume of international trade whether on an aggregate or on a bilateral basis abrams 1 akhtar and hilton 2 cushman 4 5 6 and kenan and rodrik 12 find some significant negative effects of exchange volatility on exports however bailey tavlas and uhlan 3 hooper and kohlhagen 10 and an international monetary fund study 11 do not find any supporting evidence for the depressing effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade it is also interesting to note that in many of these studies a significant positive effect of exchange rate volatility on the volume of trade is found for some cases however the positive effect believed to be at odds with the theory was either ignored or dismissed as a perverse result since as far as volumes are concerned theoretical considerations

measuring and analysing the effects of short term volatility in real exchange rates this paper examines short term volatility in the real effective exchange rates of industrial countries and its impact on their imports it yields three conclusions first volatility has not diminished as markets have gained experience with floating exchange rates the trend appears to be in the opposite direction for some countries second exposure to short term volatility has differed among countries japan and sweden have experienced much more than most other industrial countries third volatility appears to depress the volume of international trade this third finding is consistent with results reported by cushman and by akhtar and hilton and challenges earlier findings by hooper and kohlhagen

impacts of the us dollar usd exchange rate on economic growth and the environment in the united states abstract this paper investigates the impact of the usd exchange rate on economic growth and the environment in the united states by using a structural vector autoregression svar model the analysis is based on quarterly country level data on the real trade weighted us dollar index petroleum consumption renewable energy consumption net imports of pollution intensive products real gdp and co2 emissions during the 1989 2015 the result shows that the usd exchange rate is positively related to petroleum consumption net imports of the united states in pollution intensive industries with major u s trading partners real gdp and co2 emissions moreover petroleum consumption increases real gdp and domestic co2 emission levels while net imports of pollution intensive products decrease real gdp and does not significantly affect co2 emissions

agricultural commercialization of karen hill tribes in northern thailand based on a random sample of 240 farm households in chiang mai province thailand this study shows that contrary to widespread belief karen farm households are well integrated into markets average levels of market integration are 31 for gross farm output 35 for variable inputs 49 for food consumption and 80 for net family income by estimating a two stage least squares 2sls regression model this study finds that integration into output markets is positively associated with a diversification of land use away from rice monoculture more intense contact with nearby urban centers and a greater number of roads connecting the village to the outside world controlling for these factors the distance to urban centers does not impede market integration distant villages are equally well integrated into output markets the study further finds that integration into output markets improves farm productivity and net per capita income concerns about market integration are discussed results have implications for thai policy makers who have recently placed increasing emphasis on the concept of sufficiency economy in order to promote the well being of rural people

exchange rate variability and trade why is it so difficult to find any empirical relationship this paper discusses why previous literature has found little evidence of any effect of exchange rate variability on international trade methodological and statistical issues are discussed in particular comparisons are made of estimations based on different specifications or using different data sets and changes in the results depending on the method used are shown

bilateral trade flows the linder hypothesis and exchange risk bilateral trade flows are used to examine the linder hypothesis and the effect of exchange rate variability in a gra vity type trade model derived from an underlying demand and supply mo del a behavioral model is used to justify examining these issues joi ntly the model performs well empirically using a sample of seventeen countries for the period 1974 82 the authors find overwhelming supp ort for the linder hypothesis and this version of the gravity model moreover they find strong support for the hypothesis that increased exchange rate variability affects bilateral trade flows copyright 1987 by mit press

embracing the global in thailand activism and pragmatism in an era of deagrarianization abstract today few farmers in thailand rely solely on agriculture to meet their needs rural households are dividing their time between farm and nonfarm activities constructing livelihoods that are increasingly hybrid both spatially and sectorally many of the new opportunities also have an important global element this paper contends that embracing the global is essential for many households who are land short farming shy and consumption inclined this offers the prospect of a profound shift in the trajectory of rural change in thailand as these processes intersect

exchange rate volatility and pakistan s exports to the developed world 1974 85 abstract the paper attempts to estimate the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on pakistan s exports to the developed world for 1974 85 discovering strong evidence to suggest that exports were adversely affected by the increased variability of its bilateral exchange rates unlike much of the recent evidence on developed countries however it is the variability in nominal rather than real exchange rates that is significant the computations also suggest the presence of strong third country effects

conditional exchange rate volatility and the volume of international trade evidence from the early 1900s exports from britain to the united states from 1900 to 1940 are examined to ascertain the effect of exchange rate volatility on the volume of trade in addition to using a rolling standard deviation measure of exchange rate uncertainty the conditional variance of the exchange rate series modeled as a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process is used to generate an alternative measure of exchange rate uncertainty the results of estimation using the two measures of exchange rate volatility suggest that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate reduce the volume of trade copyright 1992 by mit press

exchange rate variability and the level of international trade abstract theoretical research has shown that under reasonable assumptions exchange rate variability ought to depress the level of trade this paper builds a theoretical model designed to exaggerate the negative effect of exchange rate variability on trade in order to calibrate an upper bound to the potential size of this effect numerical analysis demonstrates that exchange rate variability of the magnitude currently observed among industrial countries has an insignificant effect on the level of trade this result is robust with respect to a wide range of parameter values and with respect to reasonable extensions of the model

the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows despite the best efforts of economists a basic paradox as to the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows remains unresolved at both the theoretical and empirical level this paper surveys the vast literature in the area in an attempt to identify major issues which have contributed to the development of the debate and examine whether any general direction for consensus may be found

exchange rate uncertainty and the demand for u s soybeans this study examines the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral soybean trade flows and finds that imports for japan france and spain are sensitive to short term variations in nominal bilateral exchange rates this research extends previous work by focusing on bilateral trade for a single commodity using a longer sample period and testing over a variety of model specifications the results suggest that the effects vary across countries depending on access to forward markets the availability of alternative soybean suppliers the degree of market concentration in the domestic soybean processing sector and the degree of currency risk importers are willing to assume the decline in u s agricultural exports during the 1980s has been explained by numerous factors including stagnant world income increased foreign competition the existence of trade barriers and the level of the exchange rate an additional factor exchange rate volatility has received less attention in agricultural trade models since the adoption of the flexible exchange rate system in the early 1970s variability in exchange rates has had a potentially destabilizing impact on trade disruptions in trade can occur because exchange rate variations change the actual price paid or received for traded goods causing adjustments in quantities traded domestic prices or in the timing of sales in order to avoid the effects of variability on profits other longer term effects may occur if exchange rate uncertainty persists to the extent that goods are substitutable such adjustments can be manifested as a sustained preference for domestic suppliers over foreign suppliers or alternative sources of foreign supply may be explored the magnitude of the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on quantity imported is dependent upon inter alia the respective exchange rate elasticities and the importer s response to variability for some goods this magnitude can be substantial the objective of this study is to determine

the impact of yuan internationalization on the stability of the international monetary system we study the implication of yuan internationalization on the stability of the international monetary system more specifically we use a three country three currency portfolio model to analyze the impact of yuan internationalization on exchange rates in the event of trade shocks with stock flow adjustment of the net foreign asset positions we show that the internationalization of the yuan would lessen the response of floating exchange rates to asymmetric trade shocks as well as attenuate the distortionary impact of china keeping its currency pegged to the dollar conversely yuan internationalization would amplify the impact of trade shocks on net foreign asset positions albeit to a limited extent

has exchange risk depressed international trade the impact of third country exchange risk abstract this paper argues that the effect of exchange risk on bilateral and aggregate trade flows should be analyzed by including the impact of third country exchange risk factors in addition to direct bilateral or multilateral risk after a theoretical examination of these effects us bilateral export flow to its six largest trading partners are analyzed empirically i find individuality and jointly significant third country risk effects in most cases in contrast to some recent bilateral efforts i find a steadily growing negative impact on trade flows from exchange risk during floating and in contrast to recent aggregate trade flow studies i conclude that there was no temporary decline in exchange risk during the late 1970s

the effect of exchange rate variability on trade the case of the west african monetary union s imports abstract the west african monetary union during the period of this study 1976 1982 comprised six countries benin burkina faso co te d ivoire niger senegal and togo since their common currency the cfa franc has been pegged to the french franc at an unchanged rate since 1948 the entire nominal exchange rate variability that traders in the region face is due to movements in the french franc with respect to other currencies in the face of exchange rate risk that is not always coverable trade should be adversely affected using three measures of variability in the nominal effective exchange rate index this paper finds that exchange rate variability has not affected the union s real imports or the diversification of trade away from the franc zone

time series minimum wage studies a meta analysis time series minimum wage studies a meta analysis author s david card and alan b krueger reviewed work s source the american economic review vol 85 no 2 papers and proceedings of the hundredth and seventh annual meeting of the american economic association washington dc january 6 8 1995 may 1995 pp 238 243 published by american economic association stable url http www jstor org stable 2117925 accessed 04 11 2011 15 46

the effects of exchange rate variability on international trade a meta regression analysis the trade effects of exchange rate variability have been an issue in international economics for the past 30 years the contribution of this article is to apply meta regression analysis mra to the empirical literature on average exchange rate variability exerts a negative effect on international trade yet mra confirms the view that this result is highly conditional by identifying factors that help to explain why estimated trade effects vary from significantly negative to significantly positive mra evidence on the pronounced heterogeneity of the empirical findings may be instructive for policy first by establishing that average trade effects are not sufficiently robust to generalize across countries and second by suggesting the importance of hedging opportunities hence of financial development for trade promotion for the practice of mra we make a case for checking the robustness of results with respect to estimation technique model specification and sample

exchange rate variability and the flow of international trade abstract this study uses a garch generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to test if real exchange rate volatility has an adverse effect on the value of u s imports from canada we find that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant affect on trade flows