factors influencing differences between survey and market based environmental value measures a unique us database combining survey and housing data is used to obtain household level stated and market based willingness to pay wtp measures to avoid living near landfills systematic differe

alternative value elicitation formats in contingent valuation mechanism design and convergent validity abstract to date much of the theoretical work on the incentive properties of contingent valuation surveys has focused on the oft recommended single binary choice sbc referendum format this work has identified conditions under which an sbc elicitation is incentive compatible and empirical evidence lends support to the predictive power of the theory nevertheless researchers and practitioners commonly use alternative elicitation formats and defend their design choices based on efficiency and other criteria in this study we demonstrate that it is possible to identify conditions under which alternative elicitation formats are incentive compatible using as examples open ended oe and payment card pc question formats we then implement theory informed value elicitations in the context of a flood control policy for new york city we fail to reject convergent validity in mean willingness to pay when comparing the theory driven oe format with sbc but reject convergent validity between the theory driven pc and sbc formats as an informative counterfactual we find that a standard oe elicitation congruent with prior work leads to significantly lower values and a lower proportion of respondents who view the elicitation as consequential

referenda under oath herein we explore whether a solemn oath can eliminate hypothetical bias in a voting referenda a popular elicitation mechanism promoted in non market valuation exercises for its incentive compatibility properties first we reject the null hypothesis that a hypothetical bias does not exist second we observe that people who sign an oath are significantly less likely to vote for the public good in a hypothetical referenda we complement this evidence with a self reported measure of honesty which confirms that the oath increases truthfulness in answers this result opens interesting avenues for improving the elicitation of preferences in the lab and beyond

bridging the gap between the field and the lab environmental goods policy maker input and consequentiality abstract this paper explores the criterion validity of stated preference methods through experimental referenda that capture key characteristics of a stated preference survey for a proposed environmental program in particular we investigate whether advisory referenda where participant votes have either known or unknown weight in the policy decision can elicit values comparable to that of a standard incentive compatible referendum when participants regard their votes as consequential our results suggest there is no elicitation bias with advisory referenda for advisory referenda where participants view their votes as inconsequential and for purely hypothetical referenda we observe elicitation bias

of birds and books more on hypothetical referenda recently cummings et al 1997 have reported a test of whether a hypothetical referendum using a majority rule is incentive compatible motivated in part by the national oceanic and atmospheric administration s noaa initially proposed rules for using contingent valuation in natural resource damage assessments these authors conclude that results from our experiments which involve a relatively simple good that is valued in a simple and controlled setting suggest that this hypothesis the incentive compatibility of a hypothetical referendum using majority rule be rejected p 619 this note questions the relevance of the authors results for the recommendations in the noaa rules and in the process identifies the general difficulties posed in measuring the amount of a public good 1 the noaa rules for contingent valuation were proposed by a distinguished panel of social scientists including two nobel laureates in economics kenneth arrow and robert solow arrow et al 1993 the guidelines were intended to enhance the reliability of contingent valuation estimates of willingness to pay for restoring injured natural resources as part of damage assessments required by the comprehensive environmental response compensation and

discrete choice survey experiments a comparison using flexible methods abstract this study investigates the convergent validity of discrete choice contingent valuation cv and contingent rating ranking cr methods using flexible econometric methods our results suggest that cv and cr can produce consistent data achieve convergent validity when respondent s preferred choices and the same changes in environmental quality are considered we also find that cr models that go beyond modeling the preferred choice and include additional ranks cannot be pooled with the cv models accounting for preference heterogeneity via random coefficient models and their flexible structure does not make rejection of the hypothesis of convergent validity less likely but instead rejects the hypothesis to about the same degree or perhaps more frequently than fixed parameter models commonly used in the literature

valuation on the frontier calibrating actual and hypothetical statements of value the lack of robust evidence showing that hypothetical behavior directly maps into real actions remains a major concern for proponents of stated preference nonmarket valuation techniques this article explores a new statistical approach to link actual and hypothetical statements using willingness topay field data on individual bids from sealed bid auctions for a 350 baseball card our results are quite promising estimating a stochastic frontier regression model that makes use of data that any contingent valuation survey would obtain we derive a bid function that is not statistically different from the bid function obtained from subjects in an actual auction if other data can be calibrated similarly this method holds significant promise since an appropriate calibration scheme ex ante or ex post can be invaluable to the policy maker that desires more accurate estimates of use and nonuse values for nonmarket goods and services benefit cost analysis remains the dominant paradigm used throughout the public sector yet a recurring issue in properly estimating the total benefits of nonmarket goods and services is whether hypothetical statements map into real behavior some recently published studies provide evidence that suggests important differences exist between responses from real and hypothetical valuation questions 1 this observation triggered a search for an ex ante and ex post procedure to correct the systematic bias between intentions and actions in valuation exercises recent technology using ex ante procedures has produced some strong evidence that hypothetical bias can be overcome by using a cheap talk scheme see e g cummings and taylor list ex post calibration has also shown some signs of promise as work due to blackburn harrison

investigating the sensitivity of equilibrium profits to advertising dynamics and competitive effects the author investigates the validity of the flat maximum principle the insensitivity of a firm s profits to changes in its optimal advertising level in a duopolistic market in which advertising by the two firms has carryover effects two alternative competitive scenarios are examined i in which total industry sales are allowed to vary over time and ii where firms are engaged in market share rivalry for i the open loop nash equilibrium advertising strategies for the firms are derived assuming a specific sales response function and an infinite time horizon a numerical analysis of the sensitivity of firms profit functions to advertising expenditures is performed at different levels of the a discount rate b advertising elasticity and c advertising decay rate an empirical illustration from the pharmaceutical industry is provided special cases of the model formulation are examined analytically in order to highlight the intuition behind the flatness of the maximum and to study the sensitivity of results obtained to choice of equilibrium strategy closed loop vs open loop for the market share game closed loop policies are considered and the flat maximum principle is illustrated in the context of coke pepsi rivalry in the soft drinks market

the substitution of information technology for other factors of production a firm level analysis fueled by its constant technological and price improvements information technology it is displacing other inputs in the production of goods and services by 1994 it accounts for over 15 of fixed investments by the u s private sector and the ratio of new it investments to labor costs is approaching 5 1990 dollar basis the ability to take advantage of improvements in it is determined in part by the substitutability of it for other factors of production this paper builds on the empirical framework of brynjolfsson and hitt brynjolfsson e l hitt 1995 information technology as a factor of production the role of differences among firms econom innovations and new tech 3 183 199 and extends it to jointly estimate output and substitution elasticities using the ces translog production function our primary source of it related data is the idg computerworld annual survey data on is spending by large u s firms for the period 1988 to 1992 previously analyzed by brynjolfsson and hitt brynjolfsson e l hitt 1995 information technology as a factor of production the role of differences among firms econom innovations and new tech 3 183 199 brynjolfsson e l hitt 1996 paradox lost firm level evidence on the returns to information systems spending management sci 424 541 558 and lichtenberg lichtenberg f r 1995 the output contributions of computer equipment and personnel a firm level analysis econom innovations and new tech 3 201 217 a key result is that it capital is a net substitute for both ordinary capital and labor suggesting that the factor share of it in production will grow to more significant levels over time we confirm earlier findings of positive returns to it investment for this data set further we find excess returns on it investment relative to labor input and some evidence of excess returns relative to ordinary capital taken together these results shed new light on the productivity paradox of it and on the growth of information intensity across the economy as firms take advantage of the continuing improvements in it

combining revealed and stated preferences consistency tests and their interpretations this article models the recreation demand for iowa wetlands combining survey data on both actual usage patterns i e revealed preferences rps and anticipated changes to those patterns under hypothetical increases in trip costs i e stated preferences sps we formulate and test specific hypotheses concerning potential sources of bias in each approach and discuss what can be learned about the validity of the models from such tests

hypothetical versus real willingness to pay in the health care sector results from a field experiment abstract we conducted a field experiment comparing hypothetical and real purchase decisions for a pharmacist provided asthma management program among 172 subjects with asthma subjects received either a dichotomous choice contingent valuation question or were given the opportunity to actually enroll in the program three different prices were used us 15 40 and 80 in the hypothetical group 38 of subjects said that they would purchase the good at the stated price but only 12 of subjects in the real group purchased the good p 0 000 we cannot however reject the null hypothesis that definitely sure hypothetical yes responses as identified in a follow up question correspond to real yes responses we conclude that the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method overestimates willingness to pay but that it may be possible to correct for this overestimation by sorting out definitely sure yes responses

a study of bank efficiency taking into account risk preferences abstract i use the stochastic cost frontier approach to investigate efficiency of banks operating in the third federal reserve district accounting for the quality and riskiness of bank output in addition to the mean and mode of the conditional distribution of the one sided error term i calculate confidence intervals for the inefficiency measures based on the conditional distribution the results indicate that third district banks are operating at cost efficient output levels and product mixes but are not efficiently using their inputs the second part of the article relates the inefficiency measures to several correlates

modeling response to advertising and pricing changes for v 8 cocktail vegetable juice this paper is based on a series of studies undertaken for v 8 cocktail vegetable juice over a five year period the studies were a consequence of management questions regarding the effectiveness of a new advertising campaign the best media mix for this campaign and the apparent wear out of the advertising copy the studies included controlled experimentation estimation of advertising response functions and exploration of price sensitivity following major price increases by v 8 it was found that the short term response to advertising was s shaped and that the new creative approach rather than expenditure levels alone accounted for by far the largest component of the impact of advertising on sales it was also found that for a short period following the major price increases v 8 became extremely price sensitive however after about six months the marginal impact of price returned to historical levels the application of results at campbell soup company their relationship to the literature and their implications for both researchers and practitioners are discussed

a duopolistic model of dynamic competitive advertising abstract this paper proposes a differential game model of competitive advertising decisions for non durable products by extending the lanchester model and the deal model of competitive advertising in the literature the proposed model is compared empirically with the lanchester model for model fitting and forecast accuracy it is shown that the model is suitable for an actual market and out performs the lanchester model in forecast accuracy the model provides a sensible modeling alternative to the lanchester model for the study of dynamic competitive advertising decisions necessary and sufficient conditions for open loop and closed loop nash equilibrium solutions to the model are discussed a numerical algorithm for open loop and closed loop nash strategies to the model is developed

scale economies in banking a restructuring and reassessment the issue of scale economies in banking has a rich history most earlier studies report modest operating cost scale economies for small institutions those with less than about 50 million of deposits in 1968 dollars but are unclear where these economies might end if at all unfortunately these studies are limited in four important respects first those that were well specified did not measure the total cost of banking operations but concentrated on estimating scale economies for individual banking functions e g demand deposits separately from commercial loans second an average cost curve that could take a u shape over the full range of banks was not fitted either because larger banks were not included or because of the functional form used cobb douglas consequently the optimum or minimum cost size of a bank or office could not be determined third the variables measuring the costs of branching were misspecified fourth the branch

pulsation in a competitive model of advertising firm s cost interaction the literature reveals contradiction between theoretical results superiority of uniform policy under a concave advertising response function and empirical results concavity of the advertising response function and the superiority of a pulsation policy to reconcile the above difference this paper offers a resolution based on 1 the concavity of the advertising response function 2 the convexity of the firm s cost function and 3 over advertising the resolution is reached upon maximizing the net profit per unit time over the infinite planning horizon subject to an exogenous advertising budget constraint theoretical results for monopolistic markets are found mostly generalized to competitive markets a numerical example is introduced to gain more insight into the theoretical findings and an approach is introduced and implemented to empirically assess the shape of a firm s cost function and the advertising policy to be employed

the financial rewards of new product introductions in the personal computer industry based on data from firms in the personal computer industry we study the effect of new product introductions on three key drivers of firm value profit rate profit rate persistence and firm size as reflected in asset growth consistent with our theoretical development we find that new product introductions influence profit rate and size however we find no effect on profit rate persistence interestingly we also find that the effect of new product introductions on profit rate stems from a reduction in selling and general administrative expenditure intensity rather than through an increase in gross operating return notably firms decrease their advertising intensity in the wake of a new product introduction firm profitability in this industry apparently benefits from new product introductions because new products need less marketing support than older products

predicting advertising pulsing policies in an oligopoly a model and empirical test given that firms pulse in advertising should firms pulse in or out of phase it is shown that out of phase maximizes the oligopoly profits and is also the markov perfect equilibrium of the infinite horizon game the basic intuition for this result comes from the following fact it is more profitable to increase consideration when the competitor s consideration is lower evidence from several product categories seems to support this theoretical result

marketing production decisions in an industrial channel of distribution this paper presents a model that considers the interface between marketing and production decisions in a channel of distribution of industrial goods comprised of a manufacturer and a distributor the key issue investigated is the nature of the coordination within the channel in light of an unstable pattern of seasonal demand the investigation which focuses on dynamic issues considers production activities such as product delivery and inventory policy and their link to marketing strategies such as pricing policies the focus here is on the dynamic nature of the coordinational aspects of the various policies for example the following questions are addressed what is the distributor s pricing strategy throughout the season what is the nature of the contractual price in the channel under what conditions should the distributor carry no inventory throughout the seasonal period under what conditions should the manufacturer carry no inventory what is the impact of the seasonal parameters and differing h

organizational form and efficiency the coexistence of stock and mutual property liability insurers this article introduces a new approach cross frontier analysis for estimating the relative efficiency of alternative organizational forms in an industry the technique is illustrated by analyzing a sample of stock and mutual property liability insurers using nonparametric frontier efficiency methods cross frontier analysis measures the relative efficiency of each organizational form by computing the efficiency of each stock mutual firm relative to a reference set consisting of all mutual stock firms we test agency theoretic hypotheses about organizational form including the managerial discretion and expense preference hypotheses the results indicate that stocks and mutuals are operating on separate production and cost frontiers and thus represent distinct technologies consistent with the managerial discretion hypothesis the stock technology dominates the mutual technology for producing stock outputs and the mutual technology dominates the stock technology for producing mutual outputs however consistent with the expense preference hypothesis the stock cost frontier dominates the mutual cost frontier our findings thus suggest a richer interpretation of organizational form than provided by previous researchers

rewards experience and decision costs in first price auctions consistent with a model of asymmetric risk aversion subjects in first price auctions consistently bid above the risk neutral nash prediction it has been argued that this is due to low opportunity cost of deviating from the risk neutral bid we increase opportunity cost and payoff levels by factors of 0 1 5 10 and 20 from the normal levels generating payoffs up to 250 for risk neutral subjects and observe an insignificant increase in the slope of individual bid functions the rmse of bids declines significantly this is consistent with a reward decision cost model of bidding behavior

on the superiority of pulsing under a concave advertising market potential function abstract the authors study the superiority of advertising pulsing policy turning advertising on and off in a cyclic fashion over its uniform constant spending counterpart that costs the same under the assumption that sales dynamics follow a modified vidale wolfe aggregate advertising model the authors show that pulsing can be superior if the product of the concave market potential function and the linear or concave advertising response function is convex in advertising similar to previous studies in the literature the average undiscounted profit over the infinite planning horizon is considered as a performance measure according to which alternative advertising pulsation policies are compared employing a well known data set relating advertising to sales the above convexity requirement is empirically supported and the superiority of pulsing is established numerically the performance of the proposed model is found to be superior to two rival models using a one step ahead forecasting procedure the analytical findings of the study are documented into six theoretical results for which proofs are relegated to a separate appendix managerial implications of the study and directions for future research are also discussed

monetary rewards and decision cost in experimental economics a survey of thirty one experimental studies which report data on the comparative effects of monetary rewards and opportunity cost shows 1 several studies in which increased rewards shift the central tendency of the data toward the predictions of rational models 2 in virtually all cases rewards reduce the variance of the data around the predicted outcome this is consistent with a model in which rewards are balanced against decision cost in agent behavior and explicates the argument that when rational models fail it can be attributed to low opportunity cost of deviations from the rational prediction

an incentive compatible conjoint ranking mechanism a simple method for making ranking based conjoint analysis incentive compatible is proposed the incentive compatible mechanism involves people purchasing a product profile with a probability proportional to its assigned rank in an empirical application related to consumer preferences for beef attributes we find that the forecasted market share for a new pasture raised steak obtained using incentive compatible rankings was significantly greater than that implied from traditional hypothetical conjoint rankings people s rankings of ground beef products were not affected by the mechanism or by information about pasture raised beef copyright 2008 oxford university press

are political statements only expressive an experiment abstract many forms of political communication are thought to be expressive rather than instrumental we present evidence suggesting the presence of a perceived instrumental benefit of individual political communication subjects may send a sometimes costly comment on another person s choice of how to donate to two rival political groups subjects who may comment before the choice is made when they may have some persuasive impact are more than twice as likely to comment as those who may only send a message after the decision when the timing of the messages pre or post decision remains fixed but the experimenter alone receives the message there is no difference in the proportion of messages sent pre and post decision moreover most of the comments made to the decision maker prior to the decision use an imperative construction while few do so after the decision is made or when writing to the experimenter alone taken together these results indicate that political expression is both expressive and instrumental

hypothetical bias and willingness to accept abstract we design and implement simple laboratory experiments to measure the bias in willingness to pay settings once identified this bias can be corrected or compared to the bias found in comparable willingness to pay settings

cost efficiency and scale economies in the turkish insurance industry this article examines the cost efficiency and scale economies of insurance firms in the turkish insurance industry over a 15 year period 1990 2004 using the stochastic cost frontier model cost efficiency scores and scale economies were estimated for each firm in the sample the results show that mean cost inefficiencies range between 18 3 and 36 9 of total costs and they do not tend to decrease over time on average small firms are more cost efficient than large firms economies of scale appear present and significant for any class size the results suggest that there is a substantial difference in scale economies between small and large insurance firms

advertising strategies in a dynamic oligopoly the author uses a dynamic model of oligopolistic advertising competition in which competitors are assumed to make a series of single period advertising decisions with salvage values attached to achieved sales in each period as the foundation for empirical analysis of the competitive situation involving the three largest ready to eat cereal manufacturers kellogg general mills and the post division of philip morris general foods the primary insight of the author s empirical analysis is that general mills places a higher future value on achieved sales than do the other competitors in the market

does bank efficiency matter market value relevance of bank efficiency in australia the stochastic frontier analysis is employed to investigate efficiency of publicly listed australian banks over the period 1985 to 2008 the results suggest that technical cost and profit efficiency of australian banks have improved over time large banks have attained a higher level of cost efficiency but a lower level of technical efficiency compared to small banks no substantial difference between the two groups is found in terms of profit efficiency a panel regression of bank stock return on bank efficiency suggests that an improvement in technical cost or profit efficiency contributes to the market value of a bank thus the shareholder wealth maximization goal is aligned with the goal of maximizing bank efficiency in the australian context

the measurement of efficiency in life insurance estimates of a mixed normal gamma error model abstract this paper make three contributions to the literature on efficiency in financial services first it presents estimates of a mixed error cost frontier in which the variances of both the normal and gamma distributions can vary with firm size second it extends the literature on life insurance scale and product mix economies by incorporating and measuring x inefficiency estimates of x inefficiency range from 35 to 50 ray scale economies exist up to 15 billion in assets third comparisons of normal gamma estimates with other methods 3 thick frontier weighted least squares half normal distributions 3 demonstrate some of their pitfalls

effects of cheap talk on consumer willingness to pay for golden rice a large body of literature suggests willingness to pay is overstated in hypothetical valuation questions as compared to when actual payment is required recently cheap talk has been proposed to eliminate the potential bias in hypothetical valuation questions cheap talk refers to process of explaining hypothetical bias to individuals prior to asking a valuation question this study explores the effect of cheap talk in a mass mail survey using a conventional value elicitation technique results indicate that cheap talk was effective at reducing willingness to pay for most survey participants however consistent with previous research cheap talk did not reduce willingness to pay for knowledgeable consumers

are hypothetical referenda incentive compatible a comment in a recent article in this journal cummings al 1997 offer experimental evidence rejecting the hypothesis that a hypothetical referendum is an incentive compatible mechanism for obtaining the social value of or willingness to pay for changes in the allocation of environmental goods and services while cautions in offering a blanket rejection of hypothetical referenda as a means of measuring economic values on the basis of their findings the authors do suggest that at least in experimental settings respondents appear to behave differently when real money is changing hands wheather hypothetical situations adequately mimic real market situations has been debated in the contigent valuation literature since its inception see cummings brookshire and schulze 1986 cummings et al s finding of incentive incompatibility appears to offer strong evidence for the critics of hypothetical referenda

estimation uncertainty and optimal advertising decisions in this paper we develop a normative model that is built on an empirically relevant foundation we observe that decision makers among them advertisers rely on estimated relationships in reaching resource allocation decisions and we investigate the normative implications of this process in particular we explore the effects of uncertainty stemming from the use of sample estimates of population parameters in general we find that ignoring this estimation related uncertainty leads to suboptimal decisions

information and effort in contingent valuation surveys application to global climate change using national internet samples this contingent valuation study investigates the issues of information access and respondent effort and is based on a series of national internet samples the focus is on a split sample treatment basic information bi versus enhanced information ei in the latter significantly expanded information is provided about global climate change and the kyoto protocol using a referendum format we compare the treatment effect bi versus ei on willingness to pay wtp we develop measures of respondent effort in accessing optional information through the technology of web based surveys and jointly model effort and wtp using a simultaneous estimation approach results support the use of the joint modeling approach for objective measures of respondent effort and wtp respondent effort is shown to be positively and significantly related to wtp however use of the optional menu is rather modest counts of pages and time spent and is highly variable both across pages and respondents

optimal advertising strategies this paper considers advertising policies for a very general class of response functions it is shown that if a pulsing policy is used awareness or sales eventually settle down to a steady cycle and the average response over the cycle is a decreasing function of the length of the cycle when response shows increasing returns to scale it is possible in theory to use a device called chattering to replace the true response by a straight line which lies above the true response in the region in which chattering is used a numerical example is given to show how the optimal policy can be computed when part of the response is linear and the results obtained are compared with those of the best practicable approximation to chattering it is shown that the problem of maximising awareness or sales subject to a budget constraint is structurally identical with maximising profit after advertising with or without a constraint in either case it is possible that for part of the time the optimal policy involves chattering

efficient estimation methods for closed ended contingent valuation surveys closed ended contingent valuation surveys can be very useful in the evaluation of nonmarket resources respondents merely state whether they would accept or reject a hypothetical threshold amount either as payment for giving up access to the resource or as a fee for its use the authors develop a maximum likelihood procedure which exploits the variation in the threshold values to allow direct and separate point estimates of regression like slope coefficients and error standard deviations without truncation bias their illustration uses data from a survey of recreational fisherman to examine factors which influence individuals willingness to pay copyright 1987 by mit press

planning media schedules in the presence of dynamic advertising quality a key task of advertising media planners is to determine the best media schedule of advertising exposures for a certainbudget conceptually the planner could choose to do continuous advertising i e schedule ad exposures evenly overall weeks or follow a strategy of pulsing i e advertise in some weeks of the year and not at other times previous theoretical analyses have shown that continuous advertising is optimal for nearly all situations however pulsing schedules are very common in practice either the pract ice of pulsing is inappropriate or extant models have not adequately conceptualized the effects of advertising spending over time this paper offers a model that shows pulsing strategies can generate greater total awareness than the continuous advertising when the effectiveness of advertisement i e adquality varies overtime specifically ad quality declines because of advertising wearout during periods of continuous advertising and it restores due to forgetting effects during periods of no advertising such dynamics make it worth while for advertisers to stop advertising when ad quality becomes very low and wait for ad quality to restore beforestarting the next burst again as is common in practice based on the extensive behavioral research on advertising repetition and advertising wearout we extend the classical nerlove and arrow 1962 model by incorporating the notions of repetition wearout copy wearout and ad quality restoration repetition wearout is a result of excessive frequency beca use ad viewers perceive that there is nothing new to be gained from processing the ad they withdraw their attention or they become unmotivated to react to advertising information copy wearout refers to the decline inad quality due to passage of time independent of the level of frequency ad quality restoration is the enhancement of ad quality during media hiatus as a consequence of viewers forgetting the details of the advertised messages thus making ads appear like new when reintroduced later the proposed model has the property that when wearout effects are present a strategy of pulsing is superior to continuous advertising even when the advertising response function is concave this is illustrated by a numerical example that compares the total awareness generated by a single concentrated pulse of varying duration blitz schedules and continuous advertising the even schedule this property can be explained by the tension between the pressure to spend the fixed media budget quickly to avoid copy wearout and the opposing pressure to spread out the media spending over time to mitigate repetition wearout the proposed model is empirically tested by using brand level data from two advertising awareness tracking studies that also include the actual spen ding schedules the first data set is for a major cereal brand while the other is for a brand of milk chocolate such advertising tracking studies are now a common and popular means for evaluating advertising effectiveness in many markets e g millward brown narketmind in the empirical tests the model parameters are estimated by using the kalman filter procedure which is eminently suited for dynamic models because it attends to the intertemporal dependencies in awareness build up and decay via the use of conditional densities the estimated parameters are statistically significant have the expected signs and are meaningful from both theoretical and managerial viewpoints the proposed model fits both the data sets rather well and better than several well known advertising models namely the vidale wolfe brandaid litmus and trackermodels but not decisively better than the nerlove arrow model however unlike the nerlove arrow model the proposed model yields different total awareness for different strategies of spending the same fixed budget thus allowing media planners to discriminate among several media schedules given the empirical support for the model the paper presents an implementable approach for utilizing it to evaluate large numbers of alternative media schedules and determine the best set of media schedules for consideration in media planning this approach is based on an algorithm that combines a genetic algorithm with the kalman filter procedure the paper presents the results of applying this approach in the case studies of the cereal and milk chocolate brands the form of the best advertising spending strategies in each case was a pulsing strategy and there were many schedules that were an improvement over the media schedule actually used in each campaign

x efficiency in the us life insurance industry abstract using six years of data 1985 1990 we estimate hybrid translog cost functions for 561 life insurers we examine the resulting residuals to determine the relative efficiency of insurers in the sample we then test the residuals to see if they are related to so called x efficiencies because of internal and external monitoring or to other factors related to rent seeking results show a large degree of persistent inefficiency seems to exist among sample firms the inefficiencies relate to some internal or external monitoring and rent seeking may be occurring

insurance companies in mozambique a two stage dea and neural networks on efficiency and capacity slacks this article analyses the efficiency of mozambique insurance companies using a dea model two dea models are used and a bootstrap approach adopted furthermore the efficiency scores are predicted based on neural networks the results reveal that mozambique insurance companies output increasing potentials are severely constrained particularly in terms of the ceded reinsurance increasing potentials policy implications are derived

recent developments in dynamic advertising research a variety of continuous time differential functions have been developed to investigate dynamic advertising problems in business and economics fields since major dynamic models appearing before 1995 have been reviewed by a few survey papers we provide a comprehensive review of the dynamic advertising models published after 1995 which are classified into six categories i nerlove arrow model and its extensions ii vidale wolfe model and its extensions iii lanchester model and its extensions iv the diffusion models v dynamic advertising competition models with other attributes and vi empirical studies for dynamic advertising problems for each category we first briefly summarize major relevant before 1995 models and then discuss major after 1995 models in details we find that the dynamic models reviewed in this paper have been extensively used to analyze various advertising problems in the monopoly duopoly oligopoly and supply chain systems our review reveals that the diffusion models have not been used to analyze advertising problems in supply chain operations which may be a research direction in the future moreover we learn from our review that very few publications regarding dynamic advertising problems have considered the supply chain competition we also find that very few researchers have used the diffusion model to investigate the dynamic advertising problems with product quality as a decision variable and the pricing decision has not been incorporated into any extant lanchester model the paper ends with a summary of our review and suggestions on possible research directions in the future

on the generalizability of advertising pulsation monopoly results to an oligopoly this paper introduces for the first time an analytical framework for modeling and analyzing sales response to advertising pulsation for competitive markets of mature products in continuous time for discrete piecewise policies that allow unequal cycle lengths employing a nash equilibrium solution concept this study supported with numerical analysis demonstrates that there is an oligopolistic as opposed to a monopolistic justification for advertising at a constant rate in the presence of concave response functions or advertising according to a pulsing policy in the presence of s shaped response functions the article employs a modeling framework whereby each of a set of competitors responses to advertising spending is governed mainly by lanchester type response is used to analyze the game resulting from cyclical advertising policies that are strictly adhered to by all players a non discounted averaged performance is used to assess the purported optimality of different variants of piecewise constant policies

measuring cost efficiency in the property liability insurance industry abstract escalating prices and periodic availability problems in property liability insurance markets are often attributed to insurance company inefficiency and lax claims settlement practices this paper investigates these issues by estimating stochastic cost frontiers for three size stratified samples of property liability insurers over the period 1980 1988 a translog cost function and input share equations are estimated using maximum likelihood techniques the results show that large insurers operate in a narrow range around an average efficiency level of about 90 percent relative to their cost frontier efficiency levels for medium and small insurers are about 80 and 88 percent in relation to their respective frontiers wider variations in efficiency are present for these two groups in comparison with large insurers large insurers slightly over produce loss settlement services while small and medium size insurers under produce this output the small and intermediate size groups are characterized by economies of scale suggesting the potential for cost reductions from consolidations in the industry