multi region input output analysis of co2 emissions embodied in trade the feedback effects energy related co2 emissions embodied in international trade have been widely studied by researchers using the environmental input output framework despite the increasing interest in using the multi regional input output mrio model by researchers few studies have looked into the mechanism of feedback effects we introduce a method called the stepwise distribution of emissions embodied in trade swd eet to reveal how the emissions embodied in trade are absorbed by a country s final demands through a series of allocation steps a country s indirect absorption patterns and its indirect trade balance of emissions from bilateral trade with other countries are also studied based on the proposed method an empirical study using the data of asian economies shows significant differences in the consumption based emission estimates for some economies due to feedback effects through international trade the differences can be largely captured by the first step or the first two steps of the adjustment procedure in the swd eet analysis other findings and some recommendations are also presented

examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 2 review of input output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade this paper offers a detailed review of recently described single and multi region input output models used to assess environmental impacts of internationally traded goods and services it is the second part of a two part contribution in part 1 turner k lenzen m wiedmann t and barrett j in press examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities part 1 a technical note on combining input output and ecological footprint analysis ecological economics we describe how to enumerate the resource and pollution content of inter regional and inter national trade flows with the aim to illustrate an ideal accounting and modelling framework for the estimation of ecological footprints a large number of such environment economic models have been described but only in the last few years models have emerged that use a more sophisticated multi region multi sector input output framework this has been made possible through improvements in data availability and quality as well as computability we identify six major models that employ multi sector multi region input output analysis in order to calculate environmental impacts embodied in international trade results from the reviewed studies demonstrate that it is important to explicitly consider the production recipe land and energy use as well as emissions in a multi region multi sector and multi directional trade model with global coverage and detailed sector disaggregation only then reliable figures for indicators of impacts embodied in trade such as the ecological footprint can be derived

conditional exchange rate volatility and the volume of foreign trade evidence from seven industrialized countries there has long been a concern over the volatility of exchange rates and their impact on the volume of foreign trade however very little attention has been paid to the choice of an appropriate volatility variable as well as the proper specification of the trade equation the sample standard deviation of the exchange rate has been used as a proxy for exchangerate uncertainty in empirical studies that examine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the volume of foreign trade see for example akhtar and hilton 1 and gotur 27 these studies have provided conflicting evidence on this issue it has been argued that use of the sample standard deviation is inappropriate because the empirical distribution of exchange rates is not normal 22 10 in this regard subsequent empirical research 12 36 40 41 11 has employed a moving standard deviation of the rate of change of the exchange rate as a proxy for exchange rate uncertainty chowdhury 11 obtained a clear pattern of results that support the hypothesis that the higher volatility of exchange rates led to a reduction in international trade transactions after the breakdown of the bretton woods system in march 1973 other studies have reported ambiguous results 2 the moving standard deviation used in these studies has been criticized in the literature for a ignoring relevant information on the random process generating exchange rates 18 b underestimating the effect of volatility on decisions 52 c distorting the measurement of the volatility variable by smoothing the series 9 and d injecting an element of arbitrariness into the calculation through decisions about the order m of the moving average 43 3

think locally act locally spillovers spillbacks and efficient decentralized policymaking we analyze models with interjurisdictional spillovers among heterogeneous jurisdictions such as co 2 emissions that affect the global environment each jurisdiction s emissions depend upon the local stock of capital which is interjurisdictionally mobile and subject to local taxation in important cases decentralized policymaking leads to efficient resource allocation even in the complete absence of corrective interventions by higher level governments or coordination of policy through coasian bargaining in particular even when the preferences and production technologies differ among the agents the decentralized system can result in globally efficient allocation

the effect of financial liberalization on capital flight in african economies summary in this paper we assess the effects of financial liberalization on capital flight in african economies a portfolio model in which capital flight is one of the assets is estimated on a sample of nine african countries for 1970 91 the estimation results suggest that financial liberalization induces a reduction in capital flight after augmenting the model with submodels for the banking sector the government sector and the external sector we conduct simulation experiments involving an interest rate deregulation a decrease in reserve requirements and a change in exchange rate policy the simulation results show that capital flight is reduced by all the three financial liberalization measures the effects however are very small considering both the estimation and simulation results we conclude that financial liberalization policies are useful in attempts to reduce capital flight in african economies but per se the policies may not be the panacea

the legacy of u s educational leadership notes on distribution and economic growth in the 20th century the united states led all rich and industrialized countries in the establishment of mass secondary and higher education and it led all in europe by at least several decades for much of the 20th century the u s advantage in the schooling of its young produced by midcentury large differences between the educational stock of its labor force and that of other rich countries a result that would hardly be surprising except for the fact that the united states had absorbed millions of less educated immigrants only in recent decades have many rich countries caught up to and even exceeded the united states in years of education for young persons at the same time that the united states led the world in mass education in the 20th century it rapidly expanded its economic lead no single factor can account for the economic dominance of the united states in the 20th century and most of the favored explanations be they rooted in technological institutional or natural resource factors are complementary ones despite that admonition it would appear logical that part possibly a major part of the economic

fiscal federalism and economic growth this paper uses an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations to explore the connection between fiscal federalism and economic growth the analysis shows that federalism which allows public good levels to be tailored to suit the differing demands of young and old consumers who live in different jurisdictions increases the incentive to save this stronger incentive in turn leads to an increase in investment in human capital and a byproduct of this higher investment is faster economic growth

a review of recent multi region input output models used for consumption based emission and resource accounting abstract the interest in consumption based emission and resource accounting has grown significantly many studies juxtapose consumer emissions carbon footprint and producer territorial emissions of greenhouse gases in order to demonstrate the effects of trade on the national emission budget to this end a respectable number of studies have been undertaken worldwide in order to estimate emissions embedded in international trade of numerous countries and world regions input output approaches and increasingly multi region input output mrio models are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete carbon footprint estimates at the national and supra national level with increasing processing capabilities of computers and a wider availability of economic accounts environmental accounts and trade data such models are now being implemented on a wide scale after a brief overview of salient single region input output studies i provide an in depth review of the most recent multi region input output models used for the purpose of consumption based environmental accounting the main methodological features and important results are described for around twenty studies covering the years 2007 to 2009 this is followed by a detailed review of studies dealing with uncertainty in mrio analysis an area which has not received a lot of attention so far i conclude that further research is mainly needed in two areas a improvements in data availability and quality and b improvements in the accuracy of mrio modelling

china s provincial co2 emissions embodied in international and interprovincial trade trades create a mechanism of embodied co2 emissions transfer among regions causing distortion on the total emissions as the world s second largest economy china has a large scale of trade which results in the serious problem of embodied co2 emissions transfer this paper analyzes the characteristics of china s co2 emissions embodied in international and interprovincial trade from the provincial perspective the multi regional input output model is used to clarify provincial co2 emissions from geographical and sectoral dimensions including 30 provinces and 28 sectors two calculating principles production accounting principle and consumption accounting principle munksgaard and pedersen 2001 are applied the results show that for international trade the eastern area accounts for a large proportion in china s embodied co2 emissions the sectors as net exporters and importers of embodied co2 emissions belong to labor intensive and energy intensive industries respectively for interprovincial trade the net transfer of embodied co2 emissions is from the eastern area to the central area and energy intensive industries are the main contributors with the largest amount of direct co2 emissions the eastern area plays an important role in co2 emissions reduction the central and western areas need supportive policies to avoid the transfer of industries with high emissions

an error correction system for integrated consumption and portfolio allocation decisions abstract in this paper i show how an error correction system arises for the determination of consumption and portfolio allocation decisions the influential work of hendry and von ungern sternberg hus is extended to provide equations for consumption and the disaggregation of wealth into n 1 components

public versus private education when differential fertility matters we assess the merits of different education systems in a framework that accounts for the joint decision problem of parents regarding fertility and education specifically we compare the implications of a public and a private schooling regime for economic growth and inequality we find that private schooling leads to higher growth when there is little inequality in human capital endowments across families in contrast when inequality is high public education yields higher growth by reducing fertility differentials in addition public schooling leads to income convergence while private schooling can result in ever increasing inequality our analysis highlights theimp ortanceof accounting for endogenous fertility differentials when analyzing educational policies

private foreign asset accumulation not just capital flight evidence from the philippines external debt problems have been accompanied in many developing countries with large private capital outflows the latter phenomenon is usually identified in the literature as capital flight this article argues that private foreign asset accumulation is a more appropriate term and compares a great variety of definitions and measurement methods and applies these to philippine data for 1971 88 outcomes show striking differences in assessment of the magnitude of the phenomenon in the preferred definition of this study applied to the philippines unrecorded workers remittances from abroad a factor omitted in other studies represent a major source of foreign exchange earnings which indirectly support private foreign asset accumulation other definitions appear to severely underestimate private capital outflows econometric evidence on the causes of private foreign asset acquisition shows a strong sensitivity to the applied definition regression analysis for six alternative definitions shows that the ex

dynamic models of portfolio behavior more on pitfalls in financial model building in an important article in this review william brainard and james tobin have emphasized the role played by the wealth constraint in systems of asset demand equations the wealth constraint gives rise to consistency conditions which must be satisfied by the demand functions when such a system is specified and estimated as brainard and tobin caution care must be taken to ensure that unrealistic coefficients are not inadvertently imposed on omitted equations by failure to recognize the consistency conditions noting that the wealth constraint applies out of as well as in portfolio equilibrium brainard and tobin focus attention on systems in which actual and desired stocks of assets differ they specify a multivariate stock adjustment model wherein the desired change in holdings of any asset depends in general upon all asset stock disequilibria the existence of such stock disequilibria can be implicitly rationalized on the basis of costs of adjustment which impinge on the rate of change of at least some assets in this framework they show that the stock adjustment coefficients must also satisfy certain consistency conditions to ensure that the wealth constraint is satisfied an important feature of their analysis is that the total change in wealth savings plus capital gains is treated as exogenous to the financial sector and the asset flow demands described above are conditional upon the exogenously given change in wealth this strategy of separating the portfolio balance decision from the consumption saving decision is one that tobin has explicitly used and justified in his 1969 article especially pp 15 16 and is one that has been widely and effectively used in modern macroeconometric models the central argument of the present paper is that this separation of flow allocation and stock allocation decisions is not legitimate in the presence of adjustment costs attached to changing the level of individual asset holdings the existence of adjustment costs means that there is no portfolio balance problem per se in the sense of allocation of a given level of wealth but rather a longer run problem of determining an optimal time path for each asset and for the level of consumption thus a natural extension of the brainard tobin model is to treat saving and portfolio decisions in an integrated fashion 2 note that the brainard tobin model is perfectly consistent with any model of savings behavior and hence no logical con queen s university and cowles foundation for research in economics yale university i am grateful to adrian pagan gordon sparks and james tobin for helpful discussions and especially to gary smith who as well as patiently discussing many of the issues provided detailed comments on earlier drafts of this paper this research was partially supported by a national science foundation grant to the cowles foundation and by a canada council grant to the author remaining mistakes and opinions are my own i this also has implications for the common practice in macro economic models of leaving the bond market as implicit care must be taken to ensure that silly behavior is not inadvertently attributed to bondholders william silber tobin and alan blinder and robert solow have initiated research which reintroduces the bond market into macroeconomic models 21t appears to be a fairly general result that the existence of adjustment costs leads to integrated behavior m ishaq nadiri and sherwin rosen have established a similar result for the theory of the firm and robin mukherjee and edward zabel have recently shown that the separation theorem prominent in the finance literature on the mean variance approach to optimal consumption portfolio behavior fails to hold when transactions costs are introduced in my 1975 paper appendix i have argued that the integration of saving and portfolio balance decisions also applies in continuous time models even though such models are characterized by separate stock and flow budget constraints

education finance reform and the distribution of education resources between 1971 and 1996 opponents of local funding for public schools successfully challenged the constitutionality of school finance systems in sixteen states using the variation across states in the timing of these cases the authors investigate the impact of reform on the distribution of school resources their results suggest that court ordered finance reform reduced within state inequality in spending by 19 to 34 percent successful litigation reduced inequality by raising spending in the poorest districts while leaving spending in the richest districts unchanged thereby increasing aggregate spending on education reform led states to fund additional spending through higher state taxes copyright 1998 by american economic association

preference trees preference hierarchies and consumer behavior n a recent article coursey 1985 i considered consumer behavior in a model in which preferences are described by an activity hierarchy using this activity hierarchy description consumers were found to sequentially satisfy higher ranked activities in their preference ordering up to the point that their monetary and time resources were exhausted among the more interesting implications of this behavior were that 1 if a consumer s economic resources are subsequently increased then additional consumption will commence at the point where the consumer s resources were initially exhausted 2 a change in the price of a commodity used in an activity will have a pure substitution effect in the production of that activity and a spillover income effect at the point of resource exhaustion and 3 comparative statics effects of any change are unidirectional and will affect behavior only from the point where the effects enter the consumer s sphere forward to the point of exhaustion of economic resources the results were derived under the assumption that each commodity can be used in the production of only one activity in their follow up article brooks and earl 1987 relaxed this assumption and considered the implications of jointness in consumption in the context of the activity hierarchy model in their extension a commodity may be used as a perfect substitute at different places in the activity hierarchy they concluded that my general results become less clear when commodities can be used in this fashion i fully concur with their motive for this extension and welcome their remarks as a further contribution to the field of choice regarding priorities 2 in this brief article i wish to outline fully how their results should be interpreted one interpretation involves the theoretical relationship between the activity hierarchy model and the more traditional to economists utility maximization model the second interpretation involves the use of the activity hierarchy model and its extensions for empirical analysis

local decentralization and local economic growth a cross sectional examination of us metropolitan areas this paper builds on the growing empirical literature that explores the relationship between government structure and economic growth it uses a new data set of 314 us metropolitan areas to examine the relationship between local decentralization and local economic growth the results indicate a negative relationship between the central city share of metro area population and economic growth and a positive relationship between both the number of municipalities per 100 000 residents and the number of counties per 100 000 residents and economic growth those findings provide support for the hypothesis that decentralization enhances economic growth

input output analysis of co2 emissions embodied in trade and the driving forces processing and normal exports in recent years energy related co2 emissions embodied in international trade and the driving forces have been widely studied by researchers using the environmental input output framework most previous studies however do not differentiate different input structures in manufacturing processing exports and normal exports using china as an example this paper exemplifies how implications of results obtained using different export assumptions differ the study posits that the utilization of traditional i o model results in an overestimation of emissions embodied in processing exports and an underestimation in normal exports the estimate of co2 emissions embodied in china s exports drops by 32 when the extended i o model is used the choice of export assumption has more impact on the decomposition results for processing exports the study further highlights that for a country with an export structure similar to china it is meaningful to look into the impact of export assumption in embodied emission studies

the effects of direct trade within china on regional and national co2 emissions curbing national carbon emissions and clarifying regional carbon reduction responsibility are two challenges faced by china both of which are influenced by interregional trade to exclude the influence of trade balance this paper proposes a methodology to parcel the pollution haven hypothesis into a multi regional input output model applies it to a longer time gap which is made up of two representative periods of chinese economy 1997 2002 and 2002 2007 and clarifies the provincial and sectoral contributions to national emissions we find that 1 embodied co2 emissions first remain relatively stable and then increase sharply for the two periods and the changing trends are mainly determined by the decreasing carbon intensity and the expanding trade scale respectively 2 with the secondary industry as the main contributor regional carbon spillover is mainly concentrated in the coastal provinces but it contributes to an increase of co2 emissions in the central and western regions 3 the coastal and inland provinces contribute to the increase of national carbon emissions through interregional imports and exports respectively but the pollution haven hypothesis is not obvious and is only observed in 2002

effects of schooling on fertility labor supply and investments in children with evidence from brazil this study examined the impact of schooling on fertility decline in brazil brazils fertility decline began with few organized family planning programs and continued during periods of economic growth and recession it is argued that the link between schooling and fertility decline occurred through parents investment in producing healthy well educated children and trading off quantity for quality data were obtained from retrospective fertility histories among over 100000 women who participated in the pnad household survey in 1984 fertility decline was only weakly associated with increased female labor force participation the theoretical background suggests that schooling affects fertility investments in children and the labor market child survival varied widely between women with no schooling and women with 11 years of schooling mean schooling for males and females rose steadily over time the most rapid increase occurred for 1940 54 birth cohorts the percentage of women with under 1 year of schooling declined steadily for men and women and was faster for women under 10 for the youngest cohort an increase in wifes schooling from 0 4 years was associated with a decline in children by age 30 years of 0 85 births for younger women and 0 60 births for older women a model predicted 68 of actual fertility decline in 1935 39 and 1951 53 cohorts the effect of husbands schooling disappeared after 8 years of schooling while wifes effects continued to be negative labor force participation was less at lower levels of education schooling strongly effected measures of child quality

interrelated factor demands for manufacturing a dynamic translog cost function approach abstract in this paper we report the results of estimating a joint model for labour capital and energy using the transcendental logarithmic cost function of christensen jorgenson and lau 1973 this allows us to determine both the own price and cross elasticities of substitution between labour capital and energy we combine a model of factor shares with a dynamic adjustment process for each factor we also impose on the cross equation restrictions necessary to provide additivity homogeneity and symmetry since the covariance matrix in systems of share relationships is singular we follow the suggestions of anderson and blundell 1982 and employ a mullivariate error corrrection model the results suggest that additivity symmetry and homogeneity restrictions do hold and that there are short run increasing returns to scale

testing for financial buffer stocks in sectoral portfolio models empirical implementation of the buffer stock money notion tends to concentrate either on the shock absorber aspects or the spillover disequilibrium money aspects but rarely combines both moreover a potential buffer role for nonmoney assets is usually precluded without explicit empirical testing this paper examines the role of financial buffers in an ex ante sectoral model of expenditure and portfolio behavior incorporating both the shock absorber and spillover aspects in terms of cross equation parameter restrictions these are tested for a range of different assets and liabilities using quarterly data for the u k personal sector copyright 1990 by mit press

tests of restrictions in large demand systems abstract this paper compares some asymptotic tests of linear restrictions using exact results and monte carlo methods in systems which contain the same regressors in each equation it is found that under a variety of conditions a statistic suggested by deaton provides a better approximation to the true distribution in small sample situations than the wald likelihood ratio or lagrange multiplier tests

input output analysis of co2 emissions embodied in trade the effects of sector aggregation abstract energy related co2 emissions embodied in international trade have been widely studied by researchers using the environmental input output analysis framework it is well known that both sector aggregation and spatial aggregation affect the results obtained in such studies with regard to the latter past studies are often conducted at the national level irrespective of country or economy size for a large economy with the needed data studies may be conducted at different levels of spatial aggregation we examine this problem analytically by extending the work of su et al su b huang h c ang b w zhou p 2010 input output analysis of co2 emissions embodied in trade the effects of sector aggregation energy economics 32 1 166 175 on sector aggregation we present a numerical example using the data of china and by dividing the country into eight regions it is found that the results are highly dependent on spatial aggregation our study shows that for a large country like china it is meaningful to look into the effect of spatial aggregation

advertising in demand systems testing a galbraithian hypothesis in this paper we argue that the influence of advertising upon the inter product distribution of demand is a system wide phenomenon which is investigated better through a demand equation system rather than through single equation methods attention is focused upon a dynamic version of deaton muellbauer s aids model modified to include advertising terms within this framework using data on consumer s non durable expenditure in the uk we carry out a preliminary test of galbraith hypothesis that advertising may affect the composition of aggregate consumer demand

the effect of trade between china and the uk on national and global carbon dioxide emissions we estimate the amount of carbon dioxide embodied in bi lateral trade between the uk and china in 2004 developing and applying the method of shui and harriss 2006 tile role of co2 embodiment in us china trade energy policy 34 4063 4068 the most recently available data on trade and co2 emissions have been updated and adjusted to calculate the co2 emissions embodied in the commodities traded between china and the uk it was found that through trade with china the uk reduced its co2 emissions by approximately 11 in 2004 compared with a non trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the uk in addition due to the greater carbon intensity and relatively less efficient production processes of chinese industry china uk trade resulted in an additional 117 mt of co2 to global co2 emissions in the same one year period compared with a non trade scenario in which the same type and volume of goods are produced in the uk this represents an additional 19 to the reported national co2 emissions of the uk 555 mt y in 2004 and 0 4 of global emissions these findings suggest that through international trade very significant environmental impacts can be shifted front one country to another and that international trade can but does not necessarily result in globally increased greenhouse gas emissions these results are additional to the environmental consequences of transporting goods which are not robustly quantified here c 2008 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

equity and efficiency in human capital investment the local connection a general model of community formation and human capital accumulation with social spillovers and decentralized school funding is used to analyse the causes of economic segregation and its consequences for equity and efficiency significant polarization arises from minor differences in endowments preferences or access to capital markets this makes income inequality more persistent across generations but the same need not be true for wealth equilibrium stratification tends to be excessive resulting in low aggregate surplus whether state equalization of school resources can remedy these problems hinges on how purchased social and family inputs interact in education and in mobility decisions

decentralization and economic growth revisited an empirical note abstract although it is theoretically expected that decentralization leads to efficient provision of local public services and stimulates economic development there is a mixed picture of the decentralization effect on economic growth across earlier empirical studies using the instrument variables iv technique with the latest cross country data for the period from 1997 to 2001 this paper found that fiscal decentralization has a significant positive impact on per capita gdp growth therefore when the focus is placed on the latest information on the economic situation in the latter 1990s decentralization particularly on the fiscal expenditure side is instrumental in economic growth

inter industrial carbon emission transfers in china economic effect and optimization strategy abstract understanding inter industrial carbon emission transfers and their economic effect informs approaches to achieve emission reduction objectives and promote industrial economic development this paper applies input output theory to explore ways to optimize carbon emission transfers between industrial sectors first china s inter industrial carbon emission imports and exports were measured for years 2002 2005 2007 and 2010 next the economic effects of inter industrial carbon emission transfers were assessed finally strategies to optimize the carbon emission transfer structure were proposed with the goal of achieving a win win between industrial carbon emission reduction and economic development key study conclusions are as follows 1 inter industrial carbon emission imports and exports in china are significant and are increasing each year traditional energy industries have high carbon emission imports processing and manufacturing industries have high carbon emission exports and most light industries have relatively low levels of both carbon emission imports and exports 2 carbon emission transfer imports or exports can promote industrial development combining both imports and exports leads to variable economic effects within specific industries 3 to achieve the dual goals of carbon emission reduction and economic development four strategies are proposed to optimize carbon emission transfer structures in different industries

a three perspective view of greenhouse gas emission responsibilities in new zealand abstract while responsibility for the environmental impacts of production has been commonly assigned to producers production is driven by consumer demand and it is valid to question whether impacts should instead be assigned to consumers however in each of these approaches producers and consumers either bear the full burden of responsibility or none at all an example of this is the kyoto protocol where all greenhouse gas emissions are assigned to the producer and no consideration is given to where goods are finally consumed rather than taking the conventional producer or consumer responsibility approach a third perspective is possible in which responsibility is shared we use input output analysis to apply all three of these responsibility perspectives to new zealand s domestic greenhouse gas emissions our main findings from the shared responsibility approach are that new zealand producers are responsible for 44 of domestic emissions new zealand consumers take 28 and 27 are exported a shared responsibility approach appears to distribute the burden of responsibility and associated liability between parties more fairly and is likely to be more widely acceptable than pure producer or consumer perspectives

subsidizing the stork new evidence on tax incentives and fertility this paper exploits the introduction of a pronatalist transfer policy in the canadian province of quebec that paid up to c 8 000 to families having a child i implement a quasi experimental strategy by forming treatment and control groups defined by time jurisdiction and family type the incentive was available broadly rather than to a narrow population as studied in previous work providing an exceptional opportunity to investigate heterogeneous responses i find a strong effect of the policy on fertility and some evidence of a heterogeneous response that may help reconcile these results with previous estimates

testing restrictions in a flexible dynamic demand system an application to consumers expenditure in canada traditionally restrictions on systems of demand equations have been tested using static models whilst being estimated with time series data this paper develops a vector time series model of expenditure shares in the context of a singular dynamic demand system the model allows for non symmetric and non homogeneous short run behaviour the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions are only examined in the long run structure results based on canadian time series data are presented and reject the current practise of static modelling while restrictions suggested by economic theory are not rejected when imposed on the long run structure

china s regional co2 emissions characteristics inter regional transfer and emission reduction policies abstract this paper analyzes the characteristics of china s regional co 2 emissions and effects of economic growth and energy intensity using panel data from 1997 to 2009 the results show that there are remarkable regional disparities among eastern central and western areas regional elasticities of per capita gdp and energy intensity on co 2 emissions which reflect the regional differences in economic development economy structure and restraining function of energy intensity decrease on the emission energy intensity reducing is more effective to emission abatement for provinces with higher elasticity of energy intensity but may not be significant for provinces with lower elasticity the inverse distribution of energy production and consumption regional unfairness caused by institutional factors like energy price and tax system result in inter regional co 2 emission transfer embodied in the power transmission the calculation indicates that the embodied emission transfer was gradually significant after 2003 from eastern area to the central and western areas especially energy production provinces in central area which leads to distortion on the emission and emission intensity the regional emission reduction targets and supporting policies should be customized and consistent with the actual situations rather than setting the same target for all the provinces

federalism fertility and growth this paper analyses the effect of federalism on fertility and growth in a model with human capital accumulation and endogenous fertility two regimes of education finance are compared central and local i find that local education finance yields higher growth at the price of increased inequality the effect of federalism on total and differential fertility rates depends on the elasticity of substitution between children and consumption the paper also empirically examines the relationship between fertility rates and fiscal decentralisation on a panel of oecd countries and finds a weak negative effect of decentralisation on total and differential poor minus rich fertility

fiscal decentralization and economic growth a cross country study abstract we use a panel data set of 46 countries over the 1970 1989 period to investigate the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth we find a negative relationship between fiscal decentralization and growth in developing countries but none in developed countries several explanations are offered for our findings

the buffer stock notion in monetary economics not the least of harry johnson s contributions to our discipline was the series of survey papers on aspects of monetary economics which he produced during the 1960s and 1970s it is no exaggeration to say that the way in which the literature of monetary economics is organised even now follows the design which johnson first set out in 1962 and built on in the subsequent decade nevertheless the subject has not stood still and one of the more interesting developments of the last few years has involved the introduction of what has been variously described as the disequilibrium money shock absorber or as i prefer to call it the buffer stock notion into monetary economics the development of this line of thought was getting underway before johnson s untimely death much of it indeed under the auspices of his own research programme at the lse even so this did not happen early enough for the relevant ideas to be put in their proper niche by johnson himself and the buffer stock approach is not yet fully integrated into the mainstream of monetary economics much of the relevant literature is empirical concerned with modelling particular aspects of the monetary experience of specific countries hence it is fragmented and contains few papers which attempt a coherent account of just what this approach is and how it relates to other approaches to monetary analysis although essays by goodhart 1982a b and judd and scadding 1982a contain important discussions of these issues to the best of my knowledge only jonson 1976a and knoester 1979a have devoted entire papers solely to this central issue and these are relatively inaccessible and hence less widely known than they deserve to be in this lecture i shall attempt to give a brief account of the essentials of this approach first i shall sketch out its microeconomic background and then i shall discuss those theoretical characteristics which differentiate it from the neo austrian analysis of robert e lucas jr and his associates as well as from the conventional keynesian approach to monetary economics last but by no means least i shall argue that it yields simple theoretical insights into important empirical and policy related issues which are troublesome for alternative approaches in short my tribute to harry

teachers growth and convergence this paper examines the role of individual instruction and teacher quality in determining economic growth and convergence across school districts the model shows that if teacher quality is more important for human capital accumulation than individual instruction human capital convergence will occur between two school districts this convergence arises because a poor school district hires relatively better teachers but uses them in larger classes in comparison with a rich school district the model is estimated on panel data of the states of the united states from 1882 to 1990 the estimates indicate that teacher quality is relatively more important for human capital accumulation than individual instruction the model accounts for all the mean growth in state per capita incomes and between 80 and 100 percent of convergence in state per capita incomes

the role of co2 embodiment in us china trade abstract this study examines the influence of us china trade on national and global emissions of carbon dioxide co2 the three basic questions are as follows 1 what amount of co2 emissions is avoided in the us by importing chinese goods 2 how much are co2 emissions in china increased as a result of the production of goods for export to the us and 3 what are the impacts of us china trade on global co2 emissions our initial findings reveal that during 1997 2003 1 us co2 emissions would have increased from 3 to 6 if the goods imported from china had been produced in the us 2 about 7 14 of china s current co2 emissions were a result of producing exports for us consumers and 3 us china trade has increased global co2 emissions by an estimated 720 million metric tons we suggest that the export of us technologies and expertise related to clean production and energy efficiency to china could be a win win strategy for both countries for reducing their trade imbalance and mitigating global co2 emissions improved international accounting methodologies for assigning responsibility for co2 emissions must be designed to account for the dynamic nature of international trade

is consumption too smooth the case of the united kingdom this study consider whether for the uk the restrictions of the rational expectations permanent income repi model of consumption are consistent with the data and whether consumption is too smooth given innovations in labour income some of the findings confirm those for the usa the repi restrictions are rejected however in marked contrast to the result of campbell and deaton 1989 little is found to support the view that consumption is too smooth indeed there is some support for the view that consumption is too volatile some insight is given as to how such results can arise

a monthly dynamic consumer expenditure system for germany with different kinds of households a dynamic monthly consumer expenditure system is estimated for an aggregate household and three household types using recent german data the results tend to support the long run restrictions of homogeneity and symmetry for the aggregate household but only when short run dynamics are modelled following the method of anderson and blundell the required lags are short however the results for the partiallydisaggregated data are markedly different in particular the integrability restrictions can be rejected for the sample of high income workers therefore contrary to the usual presumption the less aggregated data seem more at variance with the restrictions of utility maximization

heterogeneity stratification and growth macroeconomic implications of community structure and school finance this paper examines how socioeconomic stratification and alternative systems of education finance affect inequality and growth agents interact through local public goods or externalities school funding neighborhood effects and economywide linkages complementary skills knowledge spillovers sorting families into homogeneous communities often minimizes the costs of existing heterogeneity but mixing reduces heterogeneity faster integration therefore tends to slow down growth in the short run yet raise it in the long run a move to state funding of education presents society with a similar intertemporal trade off local and global complementarities play major roles in determining the efficient social and educational structures copyright 1996 by american economic association