a market discovery algorithm to estimate a general class of nonparametric choice models we propose an approach for estimating customer preferences for a set of substitutable products using only sales transactions and product availability data the underlying demand framework combines a general nonparametric discrete choice model with a bernoulli process of arrivals over time the choice model is defined by a discrete probability mass function pmf on a set of possible preference rankings of alternatives and it is compatible with any random utility model an arriving customer is assumed to purchase the available option that ranks highest in her preference list the problem we address is how to jointly estimate the arrival rate and the pmf of the rank based choice model under a maximum likelihood criterion since the potential number of customer types is factorial we propose a market discovery algorithm that starts with a parsimonious set of types and enlarge it by automatically generating new types that increase the likelihood value numerical experiments confirm the potential of our proposal for a realistic data set in the hospitality industry our approach improves the root mean square errors between predicted and observed purchases computed under independent demand model estimates by 67 to 93 this paper was accepted by serguei netessine operations management

demand seasonality in retail inventory management abstract we investigate the value of accounting for demand seasonality in inventory control our problem is motivated by discussions with retailers who admitted to not taking perceived seasonality patterns into account in their replenishment systems we consider a single location single item periodic review lost sales inventory problem with seasonal demand in a retail environment customer demand has seasonality with a known season length the lead time is shorter than the review period and orders are placed as multiples of a fixed batch size the cost structure comprises of a fixed cost per order a cost per batch and a unit variable cost to model retail handling costs we consider four different settings which differ in the degree of demand seasonality that is incorporated in the model with or without within review period variations and with or without across review periods variations in each case we calculate the policy which minimizes the long run average cost and compute the optimality gaps of the policies which ignore part or all demand seasonality we find that not accounting for demand seasonality can lead to substantial optimality gaps yet incorporating only some form of demand seasonality does not always lead to cost savings we apply the problem to a real life setting using point of sales data from a european retailer we show that a simple distinction between weekday and weekend sales can lead to major cost reductions without greatly increasing the complexity of the retailer s automatic store ordering system our analysis provides valuable insights on the tradeoff between the complexity of the automatic store ordering system and the benefits of incorporating demand seasonality

efficiency and equalization payments in a federal system of government a synthesis and extensions of recent results this paper investigates the rationale for a system of equalization transfers in a federal system of government the existing sources of inefficiency of resource allocation in economies with more than one level of government are synthesized in the framework of a simple decentralized multiprovince model with mobile factors of production the sources of inefficiency arise first because migrants respond at the margin to incorrect signals owing to the phenomena of rent sharing and fiscal exterality and second because of global rather than local inefficiencies the model is then extended to consider the role of the federal government in providing intergovernmental transfers in the face of such inefficiencies in addition to synthesizing the sources of inefficiency in federal models the equity arguments for equalization are briefly recounted efficacite et paiements de perequation dans un systeme federal de gouvernement synthese et extensions de certains resultats recents ce memoire examine la logique qui soustend un systeme de paiements de perequation dans un systeme fdderal de gouverement les auteurs utilisent un modele simple d un systeme multi provincial decentralise avec des facteurs de production mobiles pour definir les sources d inefficacite dans l allocation des ressources dans les dconomies qui possedent plus d un niveau de gouvernement ces inefficacites proviennent de ce que d abord ceux qui se deplacent le font en reponse a la marge a des signaux incorrects engendres par le partage de la rente sur la base de la residence et par les phenomenes d exteralites fiscales elles sont aussi le resultat d inefficacites globales plutot que locales dans le cadre de ce modele les auteurs analysent le role du gouvernement federal effectuant des transferts inter gouverementaux pour corriger ces inefficacites en plus de presenter une synthese des sources d inefficacite dans les regimes federaux les auteurs font un bref rappel en passant a l ensemble des arguments fondes sur l equite qu on utilise pour rationaliser les paiements de perequation this paper is a linear combination of two papers presented at the may 1982 meetings of the canadian economics association in halifax entitled the case for equalization payments by the authors and recent developments in the theory of regional economic policy in canada by boadway the authors are grateful for comments by the discussants jim johnson and baxter macdonald and by jack mintz brian scarfe gerard belanger david sewell tom courchene and the referees we are especially heavily indebted to dan usher for many stimulating comments and suggestions while the work was in progress some of the above persons will undoubtedly disagree with the emphasis we have chosen to put on various aspects of the analysis for policy purposes support for some of this work has been provided by the economic council of canada and is gratefully acknowledged canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xv no 4 november novembre 1982 printed in canada imprimd au canada 0008 4085 82 0000 0613 01 50 1982 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 207 46 13 127 on wed 12 oct 2016 04 27 47 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms 614 robin boadway and frank flatters

qualitative and quantitative evidence on the true local welfare costs of forest conservation in madagascar are discrete choice experiments a valid ex ante tool summary protected areas may impose local welfare costs through the enforcement of use restrictions predicting their welfare impacts before their establishment could help with the design of compensation schemes discrete choice experiments dces are increasingly used for ex ante evaluations but their validity is largely untested in low income settings using a case study of a new redd reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation project in eastern madagascar we explore the validity of dces in two ways i whether the estimates of welfare costs derived from dce are affected by respondents prior experience of conservation ii whether dce results have high theoretical and content validity we surveyed households who have varying degrees of experience of restrictions to swidden agriculture we also qualitatively debriefed a sub sample of respondents to better understand their thought processes latent class analysis shows that dce outcomes vary with conservation experience households more experienced with forest protection are less willing to trade off rights to clear forest for swidden agriculture with any compensatory interventions whereas less experienced households highly favor support for alternative agricultural techniques and a secure right to clear one hectare of forest although the results show apparent non attendance to some attributes e g cash payments qualitative debriefings suggest that respondents infact do expect relatively low or no utility from the given attributes and hence have theoretically valid preferences similarly the dce has generally high content validity although dce can elicit current preferences in this context using ex ante dce to estimate the welfare costs of such a long term intervention requires caution we conclude that it is difficult to robustly estimate compensation in advance of an intervention there is therefore a need to rethink conservation approaches and the feasibility of achieving fair compensations for conservation imposed restrictions

experimenting with multi attribute utility survey methods in a multi dimensional valuation problem abstract the use of willingness to pay wtp survey techniques based on multi attribute utility mau approaches has been recommended by some authors as a way to deal simultaneously with two difficulties that increasingly plague environmental valuation the first of these is that as valuation exercises come to involve less familiar and more subtle environmental effects such as ecosystem management lay respondents are less likely to have any idea in advance of the value they would attach to a described result the second is that valuation questions may increasingly be about multi dimensional effects e g changes in ecosystem function as opposed for example to changes in visibility from a given point mau has been asserted to allow the asking of simpler questions even in the context of difficult subjects and it is as the name suggests inherently multi dimensional this paper asks whether mau techniques can be shown to make a difference in the context of questions about preferences over and valuation of differences between alternative descriptions of a forest ecosystem making a difference is defined in terms of internal consistency of answers to preference and wtp questions involving three 5 attribute forest descriptions the method involves first asking mau structured questions attribute by attribute the responses to these questions allow researchers to infer each respondent s preferences and wtp second the same respondents are asked directly about their preferences and wtps the answer to the making a difference question based largely on comparing the inferred and stated results is not straightforward overall the inferred results are good predictors of what is stated but the agreement is by no means perfect and the individual differences are not explainable by the socio economic characteristics of the individuals since the technique involves creating a long somewhat tedious and even apparently confusing series of tasks though each task may itself be simple it is by no means clear that the prescription use mau techniques holds the same level of practical as of theoretical promise

estimation of consumer demand with stock out based substitution an application to vending machine products the occurrence of temporary stock outs at retail is common in frequently purchased product categories available empirical evidence suggests that when faced with stock outs consumers are often willing to buy substitute items an important implication of this consumer behavior is that observed sales of an item no longer provide a good measure of its core demand rate sales of items that stock out are right censored while sales of other items are inflated because of substitutions knowledge of the true demand rates and substitution rates is important for the retailer for a variety of category management decisions such as the ideal assortment to carry how much to stock of each item and how often to replenish the stock the estimated substitution rates can also be used to infer patterns of competition between items in the category in this paper we propose methods to estimate demand rates and substitution rates in such contexts we develop a model of customer arrivals and choice between goods that explicitly allows for possible product substitution and lost sales when a customer faces a stock out the model is developed in the context of retail vending an industry that accounts for a sizable part of the retail sales of many consumer products we consider the information set available from two kinds of inventory tracking systems in the best case scenario of a perpetual inventory system in which times of stock out occurrence and cumulative sales of all goods up to these times are observed we derive maximum likelihood estimates mles of the demand parameters and show that they are especially simple and intuitive however state of the art inventory systems in retail vend ing provide only periodic data i e data in which times of stock out occurrence are unobserved or missing for these data we show how the expectation maximization em algorithm can be employed to obtain the mles of the demand parameters by treating the stock out times as missing data we show an application of the model to daily sales and stocking data pooled across multiple beverage vending machines in a midwestern u s city the vending machines in the application carry identical assortments of six brands since the number of parameters to be estimated is too large given the available data we discuss possible restrictions of the consumer choice model to accomplish the estimation our results indicate that demand rates estimated naively by using observed sales rates are biased even for items that have very few occurrences of stock outs we also find significant differences among the substitution rates of the six brands the methods proposed in our paper can be modified to apply to many nonvending retail settings in which consumer choices are observed not their preferences and choices are constrained because of unavailability of items in the choice set one such context is in store grocery retailing where similar issues of information availability arise in this context an important issue that would need to be dealt with is changes in the retail environment caused by retail promotions

deliberative monetary valuation in search of a democratic and value plural approach to environmental policy the use of deliberative methods to assess environmental values in monetary terms has been motivated by the potential for small group discussion to help with preference formation and the inclusion of non economic values in this review two broad approaches are identified preference economisation and preference moralisation the former is analytical concentrates upon issues of poor respondent cognition and produces a narrow conception of value linked to utilitarianism the latter emphasises political legitimacy appeals to community values and tends to privilege arguments made in the public interest both approaches are shown to embrace forms of value convergence which undermine the prospects for value pluralism as a result exclusion and predefinition of values dominates current practice in order to maintain democratic credentials the importance attributed to monetary value needs to be left as an open question to be addressed as part of a process determining an agreement to pay to this end we identify a discourse based approach as a third way consistent with the democratic and value plural potential of deliberative monetary valuation

decentralization and intra country transfers in the great recession the case of the european union empirical evidence is found supporting the assignment of the redistribution function to the central government viewing the great recession or recessions in general as a shock it is found that a

income redistribution in a common labor market when households are mobile among jurisdictions income redistribution by individual jurisdictions creates fiscal externalities a model of interjurisdictional migration is used to study the nature of this redistributive externality analysis of optimal redistribution and optimal corrective subsidies from higher level governments shows that benefit levels for the recipients of income transfers and tax rates on mobile taxpayers should be equalized across jurisdictions a system of jurisdictions with a common labor market can achieve welfare improvements through coordination of domestic redistributive policy or through the intervention of a higher level government copyright 1991 by american economic association

endogeneity in brand choice models applications of random utility models to scanner data have been widely presented in marketing for the last 20 years one particular problem with these applications is that they have ignored possible correlations between the independent variables in the deterministic component of utility price promotion etc and the stochastic component or error term in fact marketing mix variables such as price not only affect brand purchasing probabilities but are themselves endogenously set by marketing managers this work tests whether these endogeneity problems are important enough to warrant consideration when estimating random utility models with scanner panel data our results show that not accounting for endogeneity may result in a substantial bias in the parameter estimates

incentive effects of the u s welfare system a review the author would like to acknowledge support for prior work on this topic from the u s department of health and human services and helpful comments from three anonymous referees rebecca blank howard chernick john fitzgerald irwin garfinkel peter gottschalk edward gramlich david greenberg judith gueron james heckman v joseph hotz robert hutchens michael keane frank levy larry mead michael murray robert plotnick anuradha rangarajan philip robins howard rolston jeffrey smith and daniel weinberg all opinions and errors are those of the author alone

price principle and the environment should preferences count as a normative discipline welfare and therefore resource economics postulates that preferences should count in the allocation of resources this postulate cannot be justified in relation to choice or to well being the nor mative qualities that attend choices e g ac countability responsibility commitment and consent explain why choices should count but not preferences which are not actions but theo retical entities constructed ad hoc from stipu lated descriptions of behavior they are then said to explain the satisfaction of preferences moreover has no demonstrable relation with any conception of welfare or well being not sim ply defined in terms of it jel a13

incentive equivalence with fixed migration costs abstract if migration between communities is costless and if policy makers in each community anticipate the migration response to policy changes then the interests of the two communities are perfectly aligned decentralization is efficient this incentive equivalence is well known however the first order approach used in virtually all the literature may obscure the fact that no convexity assumptions need be made about technology or tastes this fact underscores the relevance of incentive equivalence even when there are scale economies in the public sector here the consequences of positive migration costs for this incentive equivalence are considered in contrast with much of the literature migration costs are assumed the same for everyone this formulation differs from the more common attachment to home assumption of heterogeneous migration costs conditional on the direction of migration interests of different communities are still perfectly aligned but natives of different communities may prefer different directions of migration weakening incentive equivalence if local policy makers have the power to induce large changes in migration flows however incentive equivalence fails only if economies of scale in population are important so that communities may be under populated

can contingent valuation distinguish economic values for oifferent public goods this paper reports the first test eval uating whether stated choices as part of a contin gent valuation survey discriminate between signifi cant and trivial causes using a random digit dialed sample for north carolina two different plans were posed to respondents one to expand a popular north carolina highway flower planting program nationwide and a second to facilitate the use of recycled tires in making asphalt for highways ran dom assignment identical payment mechanisms and overall question designs were used the results indicate clear discrimination in choices choice functions and the estimated willingness to pay for the two plans jel q26 d71

migration and income redistribution responsibilities this study examines whether afdc benefits determine or discourage state to state migration flows in the united states a pooled cross section time series model is developed to estimate afdc benefits in a state and recipients and whether benefits in one state affect benefits in other states a second model using data from the 1980 census and the panel study of income dynamics estimates migration of afdc recipients and the level of benefits in in migration and out migration states both models indicate that small but statistically significant amounts of migration occur which may be quite important but only in the long run movers although small in number are much more likely to move to a state with higher benefits states perceive this migration as important indicating that states should have less control and the federal government more control over income redistribution

asymmetric cost pass through empirical evidence on the role of market power search and menu costs abstract we estimate cost pass through rates based on data for store level retail prices and wholesale costs for up to 90 different brands of milk sold in 327 retail stores across germany the abundance of the data allows us to identify heterogeneity in pass through across retailers and relate it to underlying explanatory factors such as retailer market power measures of consumer search and menu costs results from a threshold error correction process clearly provide empirical support for the rockets and feathers phenomenon prices increase more quickly than they decrease in contrast to much of the existing literature which explains the rockets and feathers phenomenon as a result of retailers exercising market power we find the opposite result the degree of asymmetry in prices is negatively related to market power decreases with the lerner index our measure of cross product search costs does not account for observable differences in asymmetric cost pass through rates between products the rockets and feathers observation is better explained by product specific differences in menu costs mistake costs and costs associated with stock outs which can lead to a loss of consumer goodwill

estimating a stockkeeping unit level brand choice model that combines household panel data and store data abstract the marketing literature has addressed the issues of heterogeneity and endogeneity when estimating a choice model with household level panel data when using these data at the stockkeeping unit or the universal product code level choices for each item in each of the time periods under consideration cannot be observed without such information it is difficult to control for item and time period specific unmeasured characteristics because there is no information on alternatives during those periods in which they are not purchased by any of the panelists in general when a product category has many alternatives each with fairly small shares the household sample may not contain sufficient choices for each alternative thus negatively affecting the ability to control for endogeneity with household data in contrast because aggregate store level data for those stores in which the panel makes purchases are the aggregation of purchases by all households visiting the stores the data contain the

reservation price as a range an incentive compatible measurement approach abstract drawing from the literature on buyers uncertainty in preference and product knowledge the authors suggest and empirically test the proposition that a consumer s reservation price for a product is more meaningfully and accurately represented as a range than as a single point given this conceptualization they propose an approach for incentive compatible elicitation of a consumer s reservation price range icerange that builds on becker degroot and marschak s 1964 point of purchase method two empirical applications of the approach provide an assessment of its practicality and its predictive performance relative to current methodologies for reservation price elicitation the results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms the benchmark approaches in terms of predictive validity and yields valuable incremental information about uncertainty in product valuation

the effect of welfare and wage levels on the location decisions of female headed households abstract this paper develops and estimates a model designed to calculate the impact of welfare benefit levels wages and tax rates on the location choices of female headed households the empirical model assumes that women simultaneously choose both where they will live and whether or not they will participate in the welfare system based on their expected income and expected hours of work for each location participation possibility these income and hours expectations depend in turn on the welfare benefits wage and tax rates facing each household in each location it is found that both regional welfare levels and wage rates have a significant effect on the location decisions of this population the probability of a typical female headed household with little outside income leaving an area with low welfare payments and low wages can be as much as 12 points higher over a 4 year period than the probability of leaving a high welfare high wage area

buyer intermediation in supplier finance small suppliers often face challenges to obtain financing for their operations especially in developing economies traditional financing methods can be very costly or unavailable to such suppliers to reduce channel costs large buyers have recently begun implementing their own financing methods that intermediate between suppliers and financing institutions in this paper we analyze the role and efficiency of buyer intermediation in supplier financing building a game theoretical model we show that buyer intermediated financing can significantly improve channel performance and can simultaneously benefit both supply chain participants using data from a large chinese online retailer and through structural regression estimation we demonstrate that buyer intermediation lowers interest rates and wholesale prices increases order fill rates and boosts supplier borrowing based on counterfactual analysis on the data we predict that the implementation of buyer intermediated financing will improve channel

investigating heterogeneity in brand preferences in logit models for panel data in analyzing panel data the issue of heterogeneity across households is an important consideration if heterogeneity is present but is ignored in the analysis it will result in biased and inconsi

structural estimation of the effect of out of stocks we develop a structural demand model that endogenously captures the effect of out of stocks on customer choice by simulating a time varying set of available alternatives our estimation method uses store level data on sales and partial information on product availability our model allows for flexible substitution patterns which are based on utility maximization principles and can accommodate categorical and continuous product characteristics the methodology can be applied to data from multiple markets and in categories with a relatively large number of alternatives slow moving products and frequent out of stocks unlike many existing approaches in addition we illustrate how the model can be used to assist the decisions of a store manager in two ways first we show how to quantify the lost sales induced by out of stock products second we provide insights on the financial consequences of out of stocks and suggest price promotion policies that can be used to help mitigate their negative economic impact which run counter to simple commonly used heuristics

estimating disaggregate models using aggregate data through augmentation of individual choice abstract in this article the authors propose a bayesian method for estimating disaggregate choice models using aggregate data compared with existing methods the advantage of the proposed method is that it allows for the analysis of microlevel consumer dynamic behavior such as the impact of purchase history on current brand choice when only aggregate level data are available the essence of this approach is to simulate latent choice data that are consistent with the observed aggregate data when the augmented choice data are made available in each iteration of the markov chain monte carlo algorithm the dynamics of consumer buying behavior can be explicitly modeled the authors first demonstrate the validity of the method with a series of simulations and then apply the method to an actual store level data set of consumer purchases of refrigerated orange juice the authors find a significant amount of dynamics in consumer buying behavior the proposed method is useful for managers to understand better

modeling consumer demand for variety consumers are often observed to purchase more than one variety of a product on a given shopping trip the simultaneous demand for varieties is observed not only for packaged goods such as yogurt or soft drinks but in many other product categories such as movies music compact disks and apparel multinomial mn choice models cannot be applied to data exhibiting the simultaneous choice of more than one variety the random utility interpretation of either the mn logit or probit model uses a linear utility specification that cannot accommodate interior solutions with more than one variety alternative chosen to analyze data with multiple varieties chosen requires a nonstandard utility specification standard demand models in the economics literature exhibit only interior solutions we propose a demand model based on a translated additive utility structure the model nests the linear utility structure while allowing for the possibility of a mixture of corner and interior solutions where more than one but not all varieties are selected we use a random utility specification in which the unobservable portion of marginal utility follows a log normal distribution the distribution of quantity demanded the basis of the likelihood function is derived from these log normal random utility errors the likelihood function for this class of models with mixtures of corner and interior solutions is a mixed distribution with both a continuous density portion and probability mass points for the corners the probability mass points must be calculated by integrals of the log normal errors over rectangular regions we evaluate these high dimensional integrals using the ghk approximation we employ a bayesian hierarchical model allowing household specific utility parameters our utility specification related to the approach of wales and woodland 1983 who employ a translated quadratic utility function wales and woodland were only able to study at the most three varieties because there was no practical way to evaluate the utility function at that time in addition the quadratic utility specification is not a globally valid utility function making welfare computations and policy experiments questionable hendel 1999 and dube 1999 present an alternative approach in the utility function which is constructed by summing up over unobservable consumption occasions while only one variety is consumed on each occasion the marginal utilities of varieties change over the consumption occasions giving rise to a simultaneous purchase of multiple varieties our bayesian inference approach allows us to obtain individual household estimates of utility parameters household utility estimates are used to compute the value of each variety we compute a compensating value for the removal of each flavor that is we compute the monetary equivalent of the household s loss in utility from removal of a flavor these calculations show that households highly value popular flavors and would incur substantial utility losses from removal of these flavors from the yogurt assortment next we consider the implications of our model for retailer assortment and pricing policies given limited shelf space only a subset of the possible varieties can be displayed for purchase at any one time if consumers value variety then a retailer with lower variety must compensate the consumers in some way such as a lower price level we see this trade off between price and variety across different retailing formats discount or warehouse format retailers often have both lower variety and lower prices to measure this trade off we explore the utility loss from reduction in variety and find the reductions in price that will compensate for this utility loss these price reduction calculations must be based on a valid utility structure heterogeneity in tastes is critical in these utility computations and policy experiments we find that a relatively small fraction of households with extreme preferences dominate the compensating value computations that is some households are observed to purchase mostly or exclusively one variety these households must be heavily compensated for the removal of this variety from the assortment in some retailing contexts customization of the assortment is possible at the customer level we show that such customization virtually eliminates any utility loss from reduction in variety

research note structural demand estimation with varying product availability this paper develops a model that extends the traditional aggregate discrete choice based demand model e g berry et al 1995 to account for varying levels of product availability in cases where not all products are available at every consumer shopping trip the observed market share is a convolution of two factors consumer preferences and the availability of the product in stores failing to account for the varying degree of availability would produce incorrect estimates of the demand parameters the proposed model uses information on aggregate availability to simulate the potential assortments that consumers may face in a given shopping trip the model parameters are estimated by simulating potential product assortment vectors by drawing multivariate bernoulli vectors consistent with the observed aggregate level of availability the model is applied to the uk chocolate confectionery market focusing on the convenience store channel we compare the parameter estimates to those obtained from not accounting for varying availability and analyze some of the substantive implications

redistribution within and across the regions of a federation the authors reconsider the literature on redistribution within a federation with mobile agents they conclude that redistribution is a function best assigned to the national government local governments with diverse preferences for redistribution distort individual migration decisions the authors also examine the fiscal externality literature which has made an efficiency argument for interregional transfers they show that if local governments have the same preferences for redistribution the nash equilibrium is efficient if preferences are diverse the authors show that nationally imposed interregional transfers do not address the source of the inefficiency nevertheless interregional transfers are shown to be a part of decentralized behavior

interjurisdictional capital mobility fiscal externality and a corrective subsidy abstract recent studies emphasize that local property taxation may result in inefficiently small amounts of local public spending this paper shows that the inefficiency can be traced to a fiscal externality when one jurisdiction increases its taxes it causes a flow of capital to other jurisdictions that increases their tax revenues the inefficiency can be corrected with a subsidy that internalizes the externality key empirical parameters determining the magnitude of the externality are identified illustrative calculations indicate that subsidy rates on the order of 40 might be required to achieve efficiency

alternative approaches for incorporating respondent uncertainty when estimating willingness to pay the case of the mexican spotted owl abstract this paper explores the sources and patterns of respondents uncertainty regarding their willingness to pay wtp and presents alternative approaches for incorporating this uncertainty into estimation of the logit model recently proposed approaches are compared to methods proposed in this paper which allows for incorporation of uncertainty regarding both yes and no responses these approaches are evaluated by comparing the goodness of fit and variability of mean wtp extreme recoding of uncertain yes responses as no responses reduces the logit goodness of fit and the precision of the wtp estimate incorporating the degree of uncertainty of yes responses results in the highest goodness of fit and the smallest variability of mean wtp among the various models addressing uncertainty a regression model is used to determine the significant determinants of respondent uncertainty

a single welfare benefit level for europe efficiency implications of policy harmonization in a federal system within the european union it has been suggested that greater economic integration will help european economies regardless of the kind of integration europe chooses to pursue in this paper i examine economic integration in the context of redistributive policy and find that the effects of such integration are crucially dependent upon the level of redistribution to be adopted as a common policy with higher welfare benefit levels associated with lower levels of federation output this suggests that the case for policy harmonization at a generous level must rest on equity rather than efficiency considerations

competitive price discrimination strategies in a vertical channel using aggregate retail data we explore opportunities for targeted pricing for a retailer that only tracks weekly store level aggregate sales and marketing mix information we show that it is possible using these data to recover essential features of the underlying distribution of consumer willingness to pay knowledge of this distribution may enable the retailer to generate additional profits from targeting by using choice information at the checkout counter in estimating demand we incorporate a supply side model of the distribution channel that captures important features of competitive price setting behavior of firms this latter aspect helps us control for the potential endogeneity generated by unmeasured product characteristics in aggregate data the channel controls for competitive aspects both between manufacturers and between manufacturers and a retailer despite this competition we find that targeted pricing need not generate the prisoner s dilemma in our data this contrasts with the findings of theoretical models due to the flexibility of the empirical model of demand the demand system we estimate captures richer forms of product differentiation both vertical and horizontal as well as a more flexible distribution of consumer heterogeneity

tax transfer policies and the voluntary provision of public goods abstract the purpose of this paper is twofold first it extends previous models of non cooperative private funding of pure public goods by allowing both for distortionary taxation of private goods and for subsidies based on contributions to the public goods second it clarifies the type of behavioral and informational assumptions which are needed to insure neutrality of both lump sum and distortionary policies the analysis is developed in the context of fiscal federalism

assistance to the poor in a federal system abstract this paper explores the roles of different levels of government in assisting the poor using a model incorporating utility interdependence the paper first presents some theoretical results indicating how levels of poor relief vary with the extent of mobility of the poor under both centralized and decentralized systems of support it then provides a survey of the empirical work on migration of the poor along with a brief historical discussion of the experience under the english poor laws the concluding section turns to normative issues and contends that mobility of the poor is a basic source of inefficiency in wholly decentralized systems of support this inefficiency along with certain other equity considerations establishes a role for the central government in assistance to the poor

economic integration and fiscal devolution abstract in this paper we investigate how economic integration influences the political decision of integration and separation of jurisdictions in a model with imperfect capital mobility we consider that not only the redistributive policy itself but also the level of policy centralization is decided by a majority vote we find that the net benefit from integration is not monotonic with the level of world capital market integration and present a case where integration of two regions occurs only for intermediate levels of mobility this conclusion relies on the comparison of the regional majorities utility under the various regimes the benefits from integration arise from the elimination of tax competition across jurisdictions which allows for more income redistribution whereas the costs are linked to the diversity of preferences across regions namely that of the decisive voters we also show that a federal regime is better than complete centralization in keeping a nation united

decentralized income redistribution and immigration abstract we analyze the welfare and other effects of immigration on a system of jurisdictions with a common labor market mobile capital and redistributive tax transfer policies comparative statics analysis of a model of nash non cooperative equilibria in tax transfer policies shows that the welfare effect of immigration depends on whether immigrants are net fiscal contributors or burdens any one jurisdiction s redistribution and immigration policies generate fiscal externalities for others in the system which a central government can internalize by appropriate taxes and subsidies

reconsidering heterogeneity and aggregation issues in environmental valuation a multi attribute approach the economic valuation of complex environmental goods composed of multiple attributes is an expanding field of research in ecological and environmental economics however several issues are still subjects of debate this paper focuses on three of them the linearity of the valuation function in the attributes aggregation criteria for obtaining social values and the heterogeneity of individuals utility functions a methodological approach based on multi attribute utility theory which enables us to contrast the impact of these concerns on the valuation of environmental goods is proposed we employ the methodology to value a protected natural area and from the results obtained we can conclude that the non linearity and the heterogeneity of the individual utility function are relevant aspects of environmental valuation that need to be taken into account when valuing environmental goods

bringing stakeholder values into environmental policy choices a community based estuary case study this paper discusses a methodology for joining deliberation and analysis using the case study example of a national estuary program planning effort in tillamook bay or usa we describe the development of a community based evaluation tool that links actions proposed by technical experts e g biologists ecologists engineers to restore functioning of the tillamook bay estuary with the values and concerns expressed by community residents this task required the explicit consideration of trade offs across multiple benefits costs and risks we describe the design and results of an evaluation workbook developed with input from both the epa staff and community residents that provided insight to decision makers by presenting participants with explicit choices across the key dimensions and consequences of proposed actions the final section of the paper discusses the successes and limitations of the project in relation to evaluation needs associated with other environmental policy initiatives 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

narrative valuation in a policy judgment context much natural resource policy work stresses the importance of involving lay and expert stakeholders in a dialogue about environmental values pertaining to decisions about land management to this end there is growing interest in value elicitation techniques that a provide alternatives to values expressed as willingness to pay formulas and b do a good job of representing the many social ethical scientific or economic value dimensions of a problem and linking those dimensions to the evaluation of a specific policy toward these objectives this paper explores the technique of narrati6e 6aluation that is the act of situating a valuation and decision problem in the context of a narrated story it reports on an experiment that tested a narrative based representation of a problem against a utilitarian one didactic text to see which representation better served the decision process the relative proficiency of both formats was tested in the context of a policy decision about the impact of hydroelectric power production on a river s salmon population the narrative technique appeared better able to help participants consider relevant value information such that they could apply that information to a complex policy judgment some reasons for the success of the narrative condition are discussed including the technique s capacity for engaging participants and rendering technical information salient the paper closes with some recommendations for further tests of narrative based valuation tools 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

wages rents and the quality of life this study focuses on the role of wages and rents in allocating workers to locations with various quantities of amenities the theory demonstrates that if the amenity is also productive then the sign of the wage gradient is unclear while the rent gradient is positive the theory is extended to include the housing market and nontraded goods these extensions require little modification of the conclusion the empirical work on wages shows that the regional wage differences can be explained largely by these local attributes with the use of site price data implicit prices are estimated and quality of life rankings for the cities are computed

new estimates of quality of life in urban areas implicit markets capture compensation for intraurban and interregional differe nces in amenities and yield differences in housing prices and wages these pecuniary differences become preference based weights in a qual ity of life index hedonic equations are estimated using microdata fr om the 1980 census and assembled county based amenity data on climati c environmental and urban conditions ranking of 253 urban counties reveals substantial variation within as well as among the 185 urba n areas the quality of life differences across counties within one s msa is almost one half of the difference between the top and bottom ranked counties in the nation copyright 1988 by american economic association

eliciting public values for complex policy decisions several approaches exist to illuminate and clarify public values relevant for making public policy decisions these include surveys indirect and direct value elicitation focus groups and public involvement this paper describes a new approach called the public value forum which combines elements of focus groups and direct multiattribute value elicitation techniques two public value forums were conducted with selected members of the west german public to elicit values relevant for setting long term energy policies the purposes of conducting the value forums were to examine the feasibility of eliciting values from laypeople and combining them with factual assessments of experts to determine the extent to which values elicited formally conflict with values elicited informally and to assess the advantages and disadvantages of the public value forum the results indicate that the public value forum is feasible that the participants felt comfortable with the procedure and that they were eager to resolve inconsistencies between their intuitive judgments and the multiattribute models there was substantial conflict between the formally and informally elicited values however the participants were able to resolve those conflicts in the course of the value forum tending towards more moderate alternatives in the process the public value forum provided useful information for the policy process and education for the participants however because it is expensive and time consuming its main application may involve small samples of opinion leaders and stakeholder representatives rather than large representative samples of the general public

a constructive approach to air quality valuation in korea abstract this paper uses a new constructive contingent valuation approach based on the value structuring capabilities of multi attribute utility theory maut to help respondents construct and express environmental value judgments in monetary terms the maut approach adopts a decomposition procedure which seems to be more in harmony with the constructive nature of human values and the coping strategies of respondents dealing with complexity we provide an application of the approach in a survey of random population samples where we seek valuation of specific damages due to air pollution in seoul korea a developing country where the economic valuation of environmental impacts remains scarce a discussion of the results is also presented the overall results show that although empirical evidence is sparse there appears to be considerable scope for the use of the approach in environmental valuations

demand estimation and ordering under censoring stock out timing is almost all you need retailers facing uncertain demand can use observed sales to update demand estimates however such learning is limited by the amount of inventory carried when demand exceeds inventory i e when a stock out event occurs a retailer in general cannot observe actual demand we propose using observations on the timing of sales occurrences in a bayesian fashion to learn about demand and we analyze this learning method for a multiperiod newsvendor setting we find that as previously shown with the use of only stock out event observations the optimal order quantity with timing observations is greater than the optimal order quantity with full demand observations we prove this result using a novel methodology from the statistics literature on comparison of experiments although the optimal over ordering with timing observations tends to be less than that with only stock out event observations in most cases we do observe cases where the opposite is true such cases correspond to high demand uncertainty and low margins where marginal learning from timing observations is significantly higher than using only a stock out event in an extensive numerical study we find that on average and with respect to uncensored demand observations the use of timing observations eliminates 76 1 of the loss in expected profit from using only stock out event observations we show that for poisson and normal demand with unknown mean the proposed learning method is tractable as well as intuitively appealing the information contained in the timing of sales occurrences is fully captured by a single number the timing of stock out we also investigate checkpoint models in which the newsvendor can make observations only at predetermined times in a period and illustrate its convergence to the models with timing and stock out event observations

how people respond to contingent valuation questions a verbal protocol analysis of willingness to pay for an environmental regulation abstract this paper investigates what a respondent is thinking when answering a willingness to pay question in a contingent valuation using a think aloud technique from psychology called verbal protocol analysis the willingness to pay responses we observed seem to be constructed from a variety of considerations including an obligation to pay a fair share of the cost of the solution and signaling concern for a larger set of environmental issues the finding that respondents seem to construct their values at the time they are asked rather than reporting a more well defined value is seen as consistent with over two decades of research on the psychology of decision making potential uses of verbal protocols in contingent valuation studies are also discussed

choice set heterogeneity and the role of advertising an analysis with micro and macro data abstract the authors show how to use microlevel survey data from a tracking study on brand awareness in conjunction with data on sales and advertising expenditures to improve the specification estimation and interpretation of aggregate discrete choice models of demand in a departure from the commonly made full information assumption they incorporate limited information in the form of choice sets to reflect that consumers may not be aware of all available brands at purchase time they find that both the estimated brand constants and the price coefficient are biased downward when consumer heterogeneity in choice sets is ignored these biased estimates can lead firms to make costly price setting mistakes in addition the tracking data enable the authors to identify separately two processes by which advertising influences market shares they find that advertising has a direct effect on brand awareness inclusion in choice set in addition to its effect on consumer preferences increase in utility this

weak comparability of values as a foundation for ecological economics the main argument of this paper is that weak comparability of values should be seen as one characteristic feature of ecological economics the formal properties of the concepts of strong comparability implying strong or weak commensurability and weak comparability implying incommensurability will be clarified multicriteria evaluation offers the methodological and mathematical tools to operationalize the concept of incommensurability at both macro and micro levels of analysis the concept of incommensurability of values already has a long tradition in economics moreover we will show that analytic philosophy theories of complexity post normal science and the recent theories of rationality lead with different trajectories to a non algorithmic approach which in our view could be implemented by some forms of multicriteria evaluation 1998 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

pigou tiebout property taxation and the underprovision of local public goods abstract pigou s proposition that the use of distorting taxes rather than neutral head taxes reduces public service levels is examined in this paper a simple model with a national system of competing local governments is utilized to demonstrate that the use of a distorting property tax on mobile capital decreases the level of residential public services the case where public services are an intermediate producer good is also considered

demand dynamics in the seasonal goods industry an empirical analysis this study develops and estimates a dynamic model of consumer choice behavior in markets for seasonal goods where products are sold over a finite season and availability is limited in these markets retailers often use dynamic markdown policies in which an initial retail price is announced at the beginning of the season and the price is subsequently marked down as the season progresses strategic consumers face a trade off between purchasing early in the season when prices are higher but goods are available and purchasing later when prices are lower but the stockout risk is higher if the good starts providing utility as soon as it is purchased e g apparel consumers purchasing earlier in the season can also get more use from the product compared to those purchasing later our structural model incorporates three features essential for modeling the demand for seasonal goods changing prices limited availability and possible dependence of total consumption utility on the time of purchase in this model heterogeneous consumers have expectations about future prices and product availability and they strategically time their purchases we estimate the model using aggregate sales and inventory data from a fashion goods retailer the results indicate that in the fashion goods context ignoring consumers expectations about future availability or the change in total consumption utility over the season can lead to biased demand estimates we find that strategic consumers delay their purchases to take advantage of markdowns and that these strategic delays hurt the retailer s revenues retailer revenues facing strategic consumers are 9 lower than they would have been facing myopic consumers limited availability on the other hand reduces the extent of strategic delays by motivating consumers to purchase earlier we find that the impact of strategic delays on retailer revenues would have been as high as 35 if there were no stockout risk by means of counterfactual experiments we show that the highest retailer profits are achieved by offering small markdowns early in the season on the other hand given current markdown percentages the retailer can improve profits by carrying less stock as consumers accelerate purchases and purchase at higher prices when they anticipate scarcity in future periods as long as the reduction in availability is not great the profit gain from earlier higher priced sales can overcome the loss resulting from the reduction in overall sales

the value of purchase history data in target marketing an important aspect of marketing practice is the targeting of consumer segments for differential promotional activity the premise of this activity is that there exist distinct segments of homogeneous consumers who can be identified by readily available demographic information the increased availability of individual consumer panel data open the possibility of direct targeting of individual households the goal of this paper is to assess the information content of various information sets available for direct marketing purposes information on the consumer is obtained from the current and past purchase history as well as demographic characteristics we consider the situation in which the marketer may have access to a reasonably long purchase history which includes both the products purchased and information on the causal environment short of this complete purchase history we also consider more limited information sets which consist of only the current purchase occasion or only information on past product choice without causal variables proper evaluation of this information requires a flexible model of heterogeneity which can accommodate observable and unobservable heterogeneity as well as produce household level inferences for targeting purposes we develop new econometric methods to implement a random coefficient choice model in which the heterogeneity distribution is related to observable demographics we couple this approach to modeling heterogeneity with a target couponing problem in which coupons are customized to specific households on the basis of various information sets the couponing problem allows us to place a monetary value on the information sets our results indicate there exists a tremendous potential for improving the profitability of direct marketing efforts by more fully utilizing household purchase histories even rather short purchase histories can produce a net gain in revenue from target couponing which is 2 5 times the gain from blanket couponing the most popular current electronic couponing trigger strategy uses only one observation to customize the delivery of coupons surprisingly even the information contained in observing one purchase occasion boasts net couponing revenue by 50 more than that which would be gained by the blanket strategy this result coupled with increased competitive pressures will force targeted marketing strategies to become much more prevalent in the future than they are today

analysing decision behaviour in stated preference surveys a consumer psychological approach this paper applies a typology adapted from the consumer psychology literature to a contingent valuation method cvm survey we argue that the typology is helpful as a way of identifying responses that contain useful information on preferences for the environmental good in question relative to those which are unlikely to contain such information applying this framework to a cvm study of agri environmental payments in germany we find that some 90 of responses are preference revealing this distribution changes when the framing of the good is changed the typology may be of most use during the design stage of future cvm studies since it enables researchers to increase the fraction of responses that are useful

the scope for taxation and public expenditure in an open economy in this survey of some central issues of tax and expenditure policy in an open economy we consider the implications for policy of free although not necessarily perfect international mobility of commodities capital and labour we examine the issues both from a positive and a normative point of view trying to identify both the incidence and welfare effects of international mobility one general conclusion is that tax distortions may increase in magnitude in comparison with a closed economy but they may also increase in kind as when otherwise neutral taxes become distortionary because of factor mobility

decision criteria of european and latin american market actors for tropical forestry projects providing environmental services converting the environmental services of tropical forests from public goods to tradable services is a promising approach to sustaining tropical forests ecosystem functions and services we hypothesize that the development of markets for these environmental services will substantially depend on compliance with requirements of key market actors representing supply and demand sides this paper analyzes market actors decision criteria related to engagement in tropical forestry projects that provide environmental services in a questionnaire survey 45 experts from latin america and europe representing key market actor groups i e certifiers consulting companies financial institutions governmental organizations industrial companies and non governmental organizations ngos were asked to name and weight criteria that tropical forestry projects should meet in order to attract their institution s engagement many of these 45 institutions are already involved in several market activities related to tropical forestry projects and environmental services including asset management certification consultancy credit business investments project ownership and trade brokerage the collected criteria cover a variety of topics that clearly go beyond frequently applied sustainability dimensions in forestry related multi criteria based decision making i e social environmental and economic dimensions for example relatively many criteria involve topics such as project management risk management or marketing while differences in criteria weighting among market actor groups are not significant we found a significant interaction between criteria weights and the provenance of participants indicating that latin american and european market actors nominate and weight single decision criteria differently the five criteria with highest mean weights in the european sample are social benefits legal compliance sustainability environmental benefits and stakeholder participation the latin american market actors weighted highest expertise and capacity building financial resources political aspects information management and markets generally latin american market actors emphasize criteria related to markets and information knowledge management whereas european participants tend to assign importance to social and environmental benefits and sustainability the survey provides preliminary insights into bottom up defined decision criteria relevant for key actors in the market of tropical forestry based environmental

preference refinement in deliberative choice experiments for ecosystem service valuation choice experiments have gained considerable popularity in ecosystem service valuation in a one shot survey respondents are faced with a strenuous task asking them to discover and monetize their preferences for often unfamiliar ecosystem services in a previously unknown hypothetical market situation we present a deliberative choice experiment that aims to generate well rationalized value estimates for policy advice two aspects of deliberation discussion and time to reflect are examined in terms of their effect on preference refinement we find more comprehensive choice motives after deliberation as well as indications for preference adjustment and a slight increase in choice certainty jel q51 q57