the dynamic relationship between the us gdp imports and domestic production of crude oil this article investigates the dynamic relationship between crude oil imports gross domestic product gdp and domestic crude oil production of the united states using a vector error correction model estimation generalized impulse response functions persistence profile and variance decompositions this article results suggest that the gdp has a leading role in determining oil imports

the quantitative analytics of the basic neomonetarist model this paper constructs a dynamic macroeconomic model with less than perfect price flexibility which has a classical side consistent with real business cycle theory augmented by investment adjustment costs increasing returns to scale and a new flexible formalization of imperfect competition something akin to the classical dichotomy is justified by a mode of approximation appropriate for a model in which one state variable adjusts quickly while another state variable adjusts slowly even with investment adjustment costs monetary expansions are found to raise the real interest rate the determinants of real rigidity and the macroeconomic rate of price adjustment are investigated copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

real rigidities and the non neutrality of money rigidities in real prices are not sufficient to create rigidities in nominal prices and real effects of nominal shocks and by themselves small frictions in nominal adjustment such as costs of changing prices create only small non neutralities but this paper shows that substantial nominal rigidity can arise from a combination of real rigidities and small nominal frictions the paper shows the connection between real and nominal rigidity given the presence of nominal frictions both in general and for two specific sources of real rigidity one arising from goods market imperfections and the other from labour market imperfections

limited rationality and strategic interaction the impact of the strategic environment on nominal inertia much evidence suggests that people are heterogeneous with regard to their abilities to make rational forward looking decisions this raises the question as to when the rational types are decisive for aggregate outcomes and when the boundedly rational types shape aggregate results we examine this question in the context of a long standing and important economic problem the adjustment of nominal prices after an anticipated monetary shock our experiments suggest that two types of bounded rationality money illusion and anchoring are important behavioral forces behind nominal inertia however depending on the strategic environment bounded rationality has vastly different effects on aggregate price adjustment if agents actions are strategic substitutes adjustment to the new equilibrium is extremely quick whereas under strategic complementarity adjustment is both very slow and associated with relatively large real effects this adjustment difference is driven by price expectations which are very flexible and forward looking under substitutability but adaptive and sticky under complementarity moreover subjects expectations are also considerably more rational under substitutability

price changes in the euro area and the united states some facts from individual consumer price data prices of goods and services do not adjust immediately in response to changing demand and supply conditions this paper characterizes the average frequency and size of price changes in the euro area and its member countries investigates the determinants of the probability of price changes and compares the evidence for the euro area with available u s results the facts documented in this paper are based on evidence from individual price data recorded at the store level in all euro area countries except ireland and greece that is in datasets covering austria belgium finland france germany italy luxembourg the netherlands portugal and spain which together account for around 97 percent of euro area gdp the data used are the monthly price records underlying the computation of national consumer price indices and harmonized consumer price indices these data cover a large number of products selected on the basis of extensive household budget surveys

currency substitution policy rule and pass through evidence from turkey in this article we analyse empirically currency substitution and exchange rate pass through in the turkish economy where their ongoing presence could undermine the implementation of a successful monetary policy especially in a flexible exchange rate regime even though a considerable time has passed after the implementation of a flexible exchange rate regime in turkey by using vector error correction model for the period from 1987 to 2004 we find that the currency substitution and exchange rate pass through still have importance in the turkish economy and the monetary policy stance has been considerably strong possibly as a response of ongoing presence of them if this is the case to avoid the undesired consequences of this strong monetary policy turkey should consider some policy measures to reduce the degree of pass through and currency substitution

assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty nominal income rules for monetary policy have long been debated but two issues are of particular recent interest first there are questions about the performance of such rules over a range of plausible empirical models especially models with and without explicit rational inflation expectations second there are questions about the performance of these rules in real time using the type of data that is actually available contemporaneously to policy makers rather than final revised data this paper determines optimal monetary policy rules in the presence of such model uncertainty and real time data uncertainty and finds only a limited role for nominal output growth

wage and price dynamics in china we study wage price dynamics in mainland china with a novel data set using province level data from 1994 to 2010 we find that the growth in labour costs in china is not passed through fully to final prices neither in the tradable goods sector nor in the economy as a whole this probably reflects the strong pressure on profit margins from a highly competitive environment especially in manufactured goods these findings have potential implications for global price developments given china s relevance in global supply chains

the timing of monetary policy shocks a vast empirical literature has documented delayed and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on output we show that this finding results from the aggregation of output impulse responses that differ sharply depending on the timing of the shock when the monetary policy shock takes place in the first two quarters of the year the response of output is quick sizable and dies out at a relatively fast pace in contrast output responds very little when the shock takes place in the third or fourth quarter we propose a potential explanation for the differential responses based on uneven staggering of wage contracts across quarters using a stylized dynamic general equilibrium model we show that a very modest amount of uneven staggering can generate differences in output responses similar to those found in the data

who gets the goods a general equilibrium perspective on food aid in mozambique abstract we employ a computable general equilibrium approach to examine the effects of alternative food aid distribution schemes for drought response food aid to mozambique alternative schemes have very distinct impacts on household welfare and prices compared with monetization of food aid by government direct distribution to households by population shares strongly benefits rural households even assuming that government cannot target food aid strictly at drought stricken rural people our results indicate that when improving household welfare is the primary goal of the food aid direct distribution of food aid to households is preferred

sufficient nourishment worldwide via transfer payments abstract the paper illustrates an unconventional approach to providing adequate nourishment worldwide regions with an insufficient calorie supply receive transfer payments in order to increase their food budgets the transfer payments are financed by a flat income tax in oecd countries a general equilibrium model which contains this transfer payment mechanism as well as information about nutrition is applied for the analysis the resulting tax rate is 0 55 of oecd countries income or a required total transfer of 112 billion usd with the money allocated the receiver regions boost their domestic production as well as increasing their food imports this in turn affects agriculture in oecd countries by promoting production

industry structure and the dynamics of price adjustment using annual us data for gross domestic product originating by sector between 1947 and 1997 it is shown that a negative long run relationship between inflation and the markup is present across the sectors as well as in the aggregate data a preliminary explanation based on industry structure is explored for the relative sizes of the impact of inflation on the markup in the long run for the various sectors

the time varying nairu and its implications for economic policy the nairu the unemployment rate consistent with a constant rate of inflation is estimated in this paper as a parameter allowed to vary over time value is determined in an econometric model where the inflation rate depends on its past values demand and supply shocks the nairu estimated for the gdp deflator varies over the past forty years within 5 4 to 6 5 percent its estimated value for the most recent quarter 1996 q2 is 5 6 percent the nairu has declined in recent years in response to global competition immigration other factors weakening labor s bargaining position and the rapidly declining prices of computers and other electronics

a dynamic baumol tobin model of money demand this note considers a stochastic version of the baumol tobin model of the demand for money a dynamic demand function is derived for the case in which independent variables change to new steady state values the s s inventory policy is shown to give rise to an aggregate partial adjustment equation with a variable adjustment speed the methodology is that introduced to target threshold models by milbourne buckholtz and wasan 1983 in their study of the miller orr model

wage setting patterns and monetary policy international evidence abstract systematic differences in the timing of wage setting decisions among industrialized countries provide an ideal framework to study the importance of wage rigidity for the transmission of monetary policy synchronization in wage setting decisions is prevalent in japan and the united states yielding varying degrees of wage rigidity within the year instead in france germany and the united kingdom decisions are more uniformly spread over time exploiting within year variation in the timing of wage setting decisions in these economies we find support for the long held but scarcely tested view that wage rigidity plays a critical role in the transmission of monetary policy

the category demand effects of price promotions although price promotions have increased in both commercial use and quantity of academic research over the last decade most of the attention has been focused on their effects on brand choice and brand sales by contrast little is known about the conditions under which price promotions expand short run and long run category demand even though the benefits of category expansion can be substantial to manufacturers and retailers alike this paper studies the category demand effects of consumer price promotions across 560 consumer product categories over a 4 year period the data describe national sales in dutch supermarkets and cover virtually the entire marketing mix i e prices promotions advertising distribution and new product activity we focus on the estimation of main effects i e the dynamic category expansive impact of price promotions as well as the moderating effects of marketing intensity and competition both conduct and structure on short and long run promotional effectiveness the research design uses modern multivariate time series analysis to disentangle short run and long run effects first we conduct a series of unit root tests to determine whether or not category demand is stationary or evolving over time the results are incorporated in the specification of vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables varx models the impulse response functions derived from these varx models provide estimates of the short and long term effects of price promotions on category demand these estimates in turn are used as dependent variables in a series of second stage regressions that assess the explanatory power of marketing intensity and competition several model validation tests support the robustness of the empirical findings we present our results in the form of empirical generalizations on the main effects of price promotions on category demand in the short and the long run and through statistical tests on how these effects change with marketing intensity and competition the findings generate an overall picture of the power and limitations of consumer price promotions in expanding category demand as follows category demand is found to be predominantly stationary either around a fixed mean or a deterministic trend although the total net short term effects of price promotions are generally strong with an average elasticity of 2 21 and a more conservative median elasticity of 1 75 they rarely exhibit persistent effects instead the effects dissipate over a time period lasting approximately 10 weeks on average and their long term impact is essentially zero by contrast the successful introduction of new products into a category is more frequently associated with a permanent category demand increase several moderating effects on price promotion effectiveness exist more frequent promotions increase their effectiveness but only in the short run the use of nonprice advertising reduces the category demand effects of price promotions both in the short run and in the long run competitive structure matters as well the less oligopolistic the category the smaller the short run effectiveness of price promotions at the same time we find that the dominant form of competitive reaction either in price promotion or in advertising is no reaction short run category demand effectiveness of price promotions is lower in categories experiencing major new product introductions finally both the short and long run price promotion effectiveness is higher in perishable product categories the paper discusses several managerial implications of these empirical findings and suggests various avenues for future research overall we conclude that the power of price promotions lies primarily in the preservation of the status quo in the category

modeling the demand for narrow money in the united kingdom and the united states abstract despite the importance of well specified empirical money demand functions for inference forecasting and policy problems in modeling have arisen concerning the economic theories of money demand the data institutional frameworks financial innovation and econometric implementation by developing constant data coherent m 1 demand equations for the u k and the u s we investigate these issues and explain such puzzles as missing money the great velocity decline and the recent explosion in m 1 the endogeneity of money the lucas critique and the non invertibility of our m 1 models are also discussed

the monetization of project and emergency food aid project level efficiency first abstract the level of food aid monetization has increased sharply particularly in africa and especially to cover the transport and non food costs of food aid projects monetization to raise cash is not wrong in principle and increases the efficiency of cash starved projects however the focus on generating counterpart funds has obscured a more important debate about whether and when food is more appropriate than cash at the project level there can be no general predisposition to use either food or cash but guidelines must be applied in each case

sticky price models of the business cycle can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem we construct a quantitative equilibrium model with firms setting prices in a staggered fashion and use it to ask whether monetary shocks can generate business cycle fluctuations these fluctuations include persistent movements in output along with the other defining features of business cycles like volatile investment and smooth consumption we assume that prices are exogenously sticky for a short time persistent output fluctuations require endogenous price stickiness in the sense that firms choose not to change prices much when they can do so we find that for a wide range of parameter values the amount of endogenous stickiness is small thus we find that in a standard quantitative model staggered price setting alone does not generate business cycle fluctuations

a comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks an application to euro inflation and euro divisia linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data in this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non linear models the well established and widely used univariate arima and multivariate var models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks nn are used as non linear forecasting models it is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the nn building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the nn it is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow divisia relative to the traditional simple sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework results obtained suggest that non linear models provide better within sample and out of sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them the divisia index also outperforms the simple sum index when evaluated in a non linear framework 2005 taylor francis group ltd

conflict inflation estimating the contributions to wage inflation in australia during the 1990s one of the major emerging macroeconomic problems during the past century has been the tendency for inflation to accelerate under prolonged periods of full employment according to isaac and kaldor this arises because the three major objectives of wage earners often conflict the first objective is the desire to maintain relativities the second is the desire to have a fair share of companies profits and the third is a reluctance to allow any encroachment on achieved standards of living owing to unfavourable exogenous events this paper tests how well these three objectives explain wage inflation in australia using a pseudo panel data based on the period 1989 2000 the authors find that wages are sensitive to the three major objectives but not to occupational unemployment rates

co integrating var models and economic policy this paper surveys some relevant contributions to the economic literature on co integrating vector autoregressive var models vector error correction mechanisms vecms emphasizing their usefulness for economic policy it further discusses some theoretical aspects that are necessary for a complete understanding of their potential the theoretical introduction of the co integrating var model is followed by an illustration of its applications to monetary policy fiscal policy and exchanges rates as well as in establishing the effects of structural bilateral shocks between countries the so called global var or gvar models special attention is paid to the vecm capacities of being used in conjunction with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and of jointly specifying the short and long run dynamics thus representing the steady state of economic systems by means of the co integration relations and the short run dynamics around it

inference in cointegrating models uk m1 revisited the paper addresses the practical determination of cointegration rank this is difficult for many reasons deterministic terms play a crucial role in limiting distributions and systems may not be formulated to ensure similarity to nuisance parameters finite sample critical values may differ from asymptotic equivalents dummy variables alter critical values often greatly multiple cointegration vectors must be identified to allow inference the data may be 1 2 rather than 1 1 altering distributions and conditioning must be done with care these issues are illustrated by an empirical application of multivariate cointegration analysis to a small model of narrow money prices output and interest rates in the uk copyright 1998 by blackwell publishers ltd

does food aid have disincentive effects on local production a general equilibrium perspective on food aid in ethiopia this paper examined impacts of food aid on domestic food production employing a computable general equilibrium modelling technique and using data from ethiopia the simulation experiments have shown that food aid has unambiguous disincentive effects on domestic food production the removal of food aid caused a modest increase in food prices but this stimulated food production employment and income generation effects of the latter outweighed the adverse effect of the former consequently the removal of food aid led to improvements in aggregate household welfare contrary to some concerns in the food aid literature that any reduction in food aid would hurt the poor the simulation experiments suggested that actually poor rural households and urban wage earners are the ones who benefit most in absence of food aid but entrepreneurs are more likely to encounter a marginal welfare decline we have distinguished between in kind food aid and cash equivalent transfers in order to isolate the disincentives that in kind transfers would make to domestic production from those that are related to household purchasing power problem the expansionary effect of removing food aid becomes significantly larger when it is accompanied by cash equivalent payments because the latter would provide demand side stimulus to agriculture while the removal of in kind transfers would stimulate supply side with the supply and demand side effects reinforcing each other in our modelling framework the only adverse effect would be a modest deterioration in the external current account because the expansionary effects of food aid would cause imports to rise but exports to fall

interaction between housing prices and household borrowing the finnish case abstract employing time series econometrics this study shows that there has been a significant two way interaction between housing prices and housing loan stock in finland since the financial liberalization in the late 1980s before the financial deregulation the interaction was substantially weaker furthermore housing appreciation has a notable positive impact on the outstanding consumption loan stock it appears that there is no similar relationship between stock prices and credit understanding the two way interaction between housing prices and credit is of importance since the interdependence is likely to augment boom bust cycles in the economy and increase the fragility of the financial sector

monetary economic myth and econometric reality few of the main macro economic forecasting systems can produce sensible forecasts without the tender loving care of their proprietors many econometric equations in com mon use show significant deterioration in the accuracy with which they characterise data as time passes and many economists are sceptical about empirical evidence feeling it lacks credibility monetary relationships have the dubious distinction of being among the leaders in this field as witnessed by the very large mispredictions of m1 models in the usa over what is now known as the missing money period 1973 76 as well as during the recent great velocity decline 1979 82 in the uk models of m1 and m3 demand experienced large structural breaks following the competition and credit control regu lation changes and the move to floating exchange rates perhaps it is no surprise that goodhart s law should have been formulated with respect to money demand equations

are reits real estate evidence from international sector level data abstract the aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the u s u k and australia in contrast to previous research which has generally relied on overall real estate market indices and neglected the potential long term dynamics our econometric evaluation is based on sector level data and caters for both the short term and long term dynamics of the assets as well as for the lack of leverage in the direct real estate indices in addition to the real estate and stock market indices the analysis includes a number of fundamental variables that are expected to influence real estate and stock returns significantly we estimate vector error correction models and investigate the forecast error variance decompositions and impulse responses of the assets both the variance decompositions and impulse responses suggest that the long run reit market performance is much more closely related to the direct real estate market than to the general stock market consequently reits and direct real estate should be relatively good substitutes in a long horizon investment portfolio the results are of relevance regarding the relationship between public and private markets in general as the duality of the real estate markets offers an opportunity to test whether and how closely securitized asset returns reflect the performance of underlying private assets the study also includes implications concerning the recent financial crisis

a comprehensive short run analysis of a possible turkish phillips curve the studies on phillips curves relating the rate of unemployment to the rate of inflation are the results of the search for a reliable tool for forecasting inflation and implementing monetary policy the original phillips curve has attracted considerable attention and since then it has undergone several important changes although the evidence of a negative relationship between the rate of change in a money variable and unemployment rate has not been proven it is still considered to be critical for policymaking and is on researchers agenda niskaken 2002 the existence of a phillips curve for turkey is investigated with the linear and non linear specifications for the conventional and new keynesian phillips curves with inflation expectations and natural rate of unemployment for annual 1980 2001 and semiannual 1988 2 2003 1 data sets the results indicate no evidence of a phillips curve for all specifications and both data sets the semiannual data seems to have a better fit in all specifications

small system modelling of real wages inflation unemployment and output per capita in italy 1970 1994 the relationships between real wages output per capita inflation and unemployment in italy between 1970 and 1994 are modelled using a cointegrated vector autoregression there is evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria and in the dynamic evolution of the variables probably associated with the substantial changes in many sectors of the italian economy after 1979 alternative ways to model structural change in the italian labour market are considered in adopting a split sample approach the results favour an hysteresis interpretation of unemployment

project food aid and equitable growth income transfer efficiency first abstract this paper discusses the income transfer properties of food aid in order to shed light on the inputs necessary to ensure a contribution to equitable growth particularly with reference to the alleviation of poverty and malnutrition the author defines the concepts of income transfer efficiency and nutrition efficiency and shows that food aid which is income transfer efficient is usually also nutrition efficient some empirical evidence of the income transfer efficiency of different commodities supplied to various countries is reviewed and policy implications for the selection of food aid commodities and projects are discussed the author concludes with some working propositions designed to stimulate further debate on the selection and administration of food aid projects

wage growth and the inflation process a multivariate cointegration analysis past empirical analysis of the relationship between wages and prices within the expectations augmented phillips curve model have raised doubts about the effects of labor costs on inflation analysis of the same data used previously reveals the existence of a deterministic linear time component in the wage and price series which past research failed to take into account using the johansen 1988 1992 1994 multivariate cointegration technique the paper provides robust evidence on the consistency of the markup view of the inflation process with the data and concludes that monetary policy should profit from labor costs data in predicting future rates of inflation

estimating the frequency of price re optimization in calvo style models abstract this paper assesses the empirical performance calvo style models of price re optimization we first show that versions of these models in which firms update non re optimized prices to lagged inflation account well for the statistical behavior of post war u s inflation rates we then investigate whether these models imply plausible degrees of inertia in price setting behavior by firms they do but only if we depart from two standard auxiliary assumptions monopolistically competitive firms face a constant elasticity of demand and capital is homogeneous and can be instantaneously reallocated after a shock we develop a version of the model in which these assumptions are relaxed and show that it is consistent with the view that firms re optimize prices on average once every two quarters

inflation regimes and the stability of the pass through of wages to consumer prices in canada this article has formally identified distinct historical inflation regimes in canada since 1961 in order to facilitate an investigation of the impact of regime changes on the wage price dynamics in the economy both in and out of sample evidence suggest that wage growth exerts an influence on inflation only during a high inflation regime but inflation exerts a more systematic and quantitatively stronger influence on wage growth regardless of the prevailing inflation regime overall the results do not support either the cost push view of inflation or the new view that claims that increased globalization during the 1990s has reduced the feedback from wage growth to inflation by weakening the bargaining power of workers

fiscal leadership and central bank design this article investigates the impact on economic performance of the timing of moves in a policy game between the government and the central bank for a government that has both redistributional and stabilization objectives it is shown that both inflation and income inequality are reduced without sacrificing output growth if the government assumes a leadership role compared with a regime in which monetary and fiscal policy are determined simultaneously further it is shown that government leadership benefits both the fiscal and monetary authorities through the enhanced coordination that this arrangement implies jel classification e52 e61 f42

food aid and food markets lessons from mozambique abstract a consensus has emerged on food aid policy acknowledging the importance of short run relief considerations while emphasizing that such policy must be driven by a long run developmental perspective this requires explicit attention to the effects of food aid on food markets yet it has long been clear that short and long run objectives of food aid may conflict this tension stands in high relief in mozambique one of the most food aid dependent countries in the world this paper examines the factors determining the effects of yellow maize food aid on markets for yellow maize and white maize the staple crop in mozambique the paper finds that a food aid has helped fuel the growth of a competitive small scale milling industry and informal marketing system b yellow and white maize are substitutes in consumption and c continued availability of yellow maize food aid at prices well below import parity will depress incentives for producers and traders to invest in the white maize production and marketing system this paper presents recommendations for reforming the monetized food aid program and coordinating it more effectively with emergency aid

in search of the liquidity effect abstract a short run negative relationship between monetary aggregates and interest rates the liquidity effect is central to discussions of monetary policy this paper searches for this empirical relationship we investigate whether the characterization of the liquidity effect is sensitive to i changes in sample period ii conditioning the correlations on past information iii assuming money growth is exogenous and iv treating monetary changes as anticipated or unanticipated the correlations change substantially in each case we conclude that the traditional analysis and modern models which rely completely on demand side behavior cannot explain the observed correlations a successful characterization of the liquidity effect requires identification of both private and policy behavior

an evaluation of the forecast performance of alternative models of inflation the forecast performances of three groups of models of the inflation process are evalu ated in this paper ra tional expectations models with instantaneous market clearing monetarist models and expectations augmented phillips curves the dynamic simulations performed for the intervals between 1977 and 1984 are somewhat discouraging for all three theories the variation in forecasting performance within model groups often exc eeded the variation in performance across model groups nevertheless the philli ps curve formulation rarely performed worse than the other two models and in th e 1981 to 1984 period it performed substantially better than the alternative mod els of inflation copyright 1987 by mit press

soft budget constraint and inflation cycles a positive model of the macro dynamics in china during transition abstract in this paper we develop a positive general equilibrium model consistent with china s institutional and political environment to explain the growth and inflation cycles during transition central to our explanation is the government s use of the monetary and financial system to support the state sector and the growing tension between a long running commitment to the sector and economic decentralization given this commitment we show how the cycles emerge as a product of the government s imperfect control over credit allocation under decentralization and the high costs of implementing administrative credit control

modeling inflation in australia this article develops an empirically constant data coherent error correction model for inflation in australia the level of consumer prices is a markup over domestic and import costs with adjustments for dynamics and relative aggregate demand we address issues of cointegration general to specific modeling dynamic specification model evaluation and testing parameter constancy forecasting and exogeneity we also test this model against existing models of australian prices this model encompasses but is not encompassed by the existing models

real wages inflation and labour productivity in australia this paper presents an analysis of real wages inflation and labour productivity interrelationships using cointegration granger causality and most importantly structural change tests applications of tests to australian data over the 1965 2007 period corroborate the presence of a structural break in 1985 and show that a 1 percent increase in manufacturing sector real wages led to an increase in manufacturing sector productivity of between 0 5 and 0 8 percent comparable estimates for the effect of inflation on manufacturing sector productivity have limited statistical significance granger causality test results suggest that real wages and inflation both granger cause productivity in the long run

do fundamentals explain the behaviour of the swedish real effective exchange rate this study examines the long run relationship between the real effective exchange rate and its fundamental determinants and derives a real effective equilibrium exchange rate for the swedish krona our results indicate that the krona was severely overvalued in late 1992 when the fixed exchange rate regime was abandoned by the end of 2000 the krona was undervalued by approximately 5 percent given the prevailing economic conditions arithmetic examples of suitable sek eur conversion rates are calculated under various assumptions to provide a guideline if sweden were to adopt the euro in the future

modelling uk inflation 1875 1991 uk inflation has varied greatly in response to many economic policy and exchange rate regime shifts two world wars and two oil crises as well as legislative and technological changes inflation is modelled as responding to excess demands from all sectors of the economy goods and services factors of production money financial assets foreign exchange and government deficits equilibrium correction terms are developed for each of these over the sample indicator variables and commodity prices capture turbulent years variables representative of most theories of inflation matter empirically yielding an eclectic model inconsistent with any single cause explanation copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

relative price changes as aggregate supply shocks this paper proposes a theory of supply shocks or shifts in the short run phillips curve based on relative price changes and frictions in nominal price adjustment when price adjustment is costly firms adjust to large shocks but not to small shocks and so large shocks have disproportionate effects on the price level therefore aggregate inflation depends on the distribution of relative price changes inflation rises when the distribution is skewed to the right and falls when the distribution is skewed to the left we show that this theoretical result explains a large fraction of movements in postwar u s inflation moreover our model suggests measures of supply shocks that perform better than traditional measures such as the relative prices of food and energy

cointegration analysis with structural breaks and deterministic trends an application to the canadian dollar this article applies recent developments in cointegration analysis with structural breaks and deterministic trends to analyse the relationship between the real canada us exchange rate and commodity prices previous empirical studies disagree on whether these variables are cointegrated the root of disagreement could be in the handling of deterministic trends and potential structural breaks i find that even after controlling for these matters the question of whether the real exchange rate and commodity prices are cointegrated for canada remains unresolved

nonuniform staggered prices and output persistence staggered prices are a fundamental building block of new keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models in the standard model prices are uniformly staggered but recent empirical evidence suggests that deviations from uniform staggering are common this paper analyzes how synchronization of price changes affects the response to monetary policy shocks i find that even large deviations from uniform staggering have small effects on the response of output aggregate dynamics in a model of uniform staggering may serve well as an approximation to a more complicated model with some degree of synchronization in price setting

synchronization of price changes by multiproduct firms evidence from canadian newspaper prices abstract using data for canadian daily newspapers we find that price changes of papers owned by the same firm are synchronized on the other hand independently owned newspapers do not appear to change their prices together

marketing margins and agricultural technology in mozambique improvements in agricultural productivity and reductions in marketing costs in mozambique are analysed using a computable general equilibrium cge model the model incorporates detailed marketing margins and separates household demand for marketed and home produced goods individual simulations of improved agricultural technology and lower marketing margins yield welfare gains across the economy in addition a combined scenario reveals significant synergy effects as gains exceed the sum of gains from the individual scenarios relative welfare improvements are higher for poor rural households while factor returns increase in roughly equal proportions an attractive feature when assessing the political feasibility of policy initiatives

limited rationality and strategic complements the implications for macroeconomics this paper considers the implications of heterogeneity in information processing abilities for macroeconomic models that exhibit strategic complements the latter is the same concept that has received much attention in the recent macro literature under the headings keynesian coordination problems and positive trading externalities we consider environments in which agents vary in terms of their ability to form expectations and ask whether it is the sophisticated agents or the naive agents who have a disproportionately large effect on macroeconomic equilibrium we find that if macroeconomic interaction exhibits strategic complementarity then it is the naive agents who have a disproportionate impact

the phillips curve in australia abstract in this paper we discuss the development of phillips curves in australia over the forty years since phillips first estimated one using australian data we examine the central issues faced by researchers estimating australian phillips curves these include the distinction between the short and long run trade offs between inflation and unemployment and the changing level of the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment nairu particularly in the 1970s we estimate phillips curves for prices and unit labour costs in australia over the past three decades these phillips curves allow the nairu to change through time and include a role for import prices and speed limit effects the paper concludes by discussing the changing role of the phillips curve in the intellectual framework used to analyse inflation within the reserve bank of australia over the past three decades

some evidence on the adjustment of producer prices we document producer price adjustment using a low inflation micro price dataset on average 24 of prices adjust each month with an average increase decrease of 6 producer prices adjust more frequently than consumer prices but their size of adjustment is typically smaller sectoral heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment is strongly related to heterogeneity in the cost structure fluctuations in aggregate producer price inflation occur to a large extent through variation in the relative share of upward and downward price adjustment

the linkage between prices wages and labor productivity a panel study of manufacturing industries 1 introductionpolicy makers and financial analysts cite wage pressures and productivity gains as leading factors in explaining inflation this cost push explanation of inflation however is questioned by mehra 1991 1993 2000 who shows that prices explain wages but that wages are not a causal factor in determining inflation studies by hu and trehan 1995 and gordon 1988 1998 report evidence indicating that wage growth has no predictive content for inflation rejecting the cost push view emery and chang 1996 and hess 1999 demonstrate that these findings are sensitive to the sample period examined ghali 1999 using granger causality tests finds that wage growth does help to predict inflation supporting the cost push view a related but also relatively unexplored relationship is that between real wages and productivity although this link is the building block of many macroeconomic models and is frequently cited in intermediate macroeconomic textbooks few empirical works have tested this relationship 1recently a large number of studies have begun testing long standing macroeconomic hypotheses using panel unit root and or panel cointegration tests however few studies have employed industry level panel data sets the current article contributes to filling this void it employs manufacturing industry data to evaluate the long run dynamics between wages prices and productivity rather than the traditional approach of examining macroeconomic aggregates more specifically using annual four digit industry level data from the manufacturing sector over the period 1958 1996 this article examines the relationship between prices and wage adjusted productivity as well as the linkage between productivity and real wages using panel unit root and cointegration estimation methods the increased power and precision of the panel methods are particularly valuable in this context because they allow the researcher to more accurately test for the existence of a one for one cointegrating equilibrium between labor market variables and industry output prices an additional objective of this article is to show the advantages and disadvantages of employing panel unit root and cointegration tests we demonstrate that the considerable heterogeneity of the data imply that the practitioner must be cautious in making inferences about the linkage between variables when using either pooling estimation methods or aggregate level data our methodology accommodates for heterogeneity by averaging coefficients as well as examines outlier effects through quartile analysis heterogeneity of the cointegrating vector and cross correlations are accommodated through analysis by industry of the extent of cointegration across the panel and monte carlo simulations that calculate correctly sized critical values our results suggest that a stable long run relationship exists between prices and wage adjusted productivity as well as between real wages and productivity for many but not all industries both relationships however have considerably varied estimates and in most cases differ from the one for one linkage found by mehra and others in aggregate level data furthermore granger causality tests support one way causation from prices to per unit labor costs ulc in both the short and the long run hence the industry level data reject the standard cost push explanation of wage pressures contributing to inflation supporting the aggregate level findings of mehra 1991 1993 2000 and others our findings suggest that prices may be driven more by demand side factors than supply side factors results further support bidirectional granger causality in the long run between real wages and labor productivity this implies that changes in real wages lead to productivity changes and is not inconsistent with the efficiency wage hypothesis at the same time productivity movements affect real wages which is consistent with efficient labor markets

shifting sands the changing case for monetizing project food aid in bangladesh abstract monetization involves local sale of food aid commodities and using the cash to finance other programs to explore the likely consequences of monetization this paper combines a stockpile of recent microeconomic evidence from food and cash for work projects in bangladesh together with a multimarket simulation model results suggest that a switch from food for work s ffw in kind deliveries of wheat to an identical wheat financed cash for work cfw program would unambiguously improve welfare of the poor

agricultural trade liberalization and low income countries a general equilibrium multimarket approach integrated multimarket general equilibrium models are constructed to analyze the impact on poor cereal importers of rising world prices following oecd trade liberalization archetypes contrast african countries in which cereal imports are not competitive with domestic production africa i to african and asian countries where they are competitive results show rising food import bills and exchange rate depreciation in africa i and the opposite in the other two regions policy implications include promoting agricultural exports from africa i and promoting food crops for import substitution in the other regions food aid needed to shelter the poor during the transition period is calculated

redistribution in a decentralized economy growth and inflation in china under reform despite expanding at an annual rate of nearly 9 percent china s economy has exhibited a marked cyclical pattern periods of rapid growth accompanied by accelerating inflation are followed by contractions during which both growth and inflation fall a widening gap also emerged between the output contribution of the state sector and its share of investment and employment in this paper we offer a consistent explanation for this behavior that reflects several key institutional features of china s economic reform i economic decentralization ii the government s commitment to the state sector and iii the credit plan and credit control

inflation dynamics marginal cost and the output gap evidence from three countries recent studies have argued that the new keynesian phillips curve calvo pricing model is empirically valid provided that real marginal cost rather than detrended output is used as the variable driving inflation one interpretation of this result is that real marginal cost is not closely related to the output gap and so models for monetary policy need to include labormarket rigidities an alternative interpretation is that marginal cost and the output gap are closely related but that the latter needs to be measured in a manner consistent with dynamic general equilibrium models to date there has been little econometric investigation of this alternative interpretation this paper provides estimates of the new keynesian phillips curve for the u s the u k and australia using theory consistent estimates of the output gap using this theory to measure the output gap leads to a considerable improvement in the empirical performance of output gapbased phillips curves

china s economic growth 1978 2025 what we know today about china s economic growth tomorrow summary this paper examines china s future growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth using two approaches it first asks in how far china s recent economic development matches standard growth patterns identified in development economics and trade theory second gdp is decomposed into income components which in turn are explained for the reform period by the quantity and quality of labor future gdp can then be re composed from future labor data available today overall china s economic growth is likely to continue at current rates through 2015 before it gradually slows such a growth has numerous implications

how to deal with intercept and trend in practical cointegration analysis this note gives a few practical guidelines for cointegration analysis the focus is on testing the cointegration rank in a var model and on how an intercept and a trend should be incorporated in the testing model only two cases appear relevant for most economic data

environmental food taxes and inequalities simulation of a meat tax in sweden abstract this paper investigates the distributional effect of an environmental tax on meat in sweden if such a tax was to be introduced welfare effects are measured as compensation variation cv for multiple price changes where hicksian cross price elasticities household expenditures and price changes are included in the calculations results show that taxes on meat are almost neutral over households when expenditures on meat are used as welfare indicators and regressive if income is used this can be explained by the households similar shares of total expenditures on meat the households with the smallest income levels need to be compensated with 904 sek per person and year equivalent to euro 86 6 per year in the year 2009 exchange rate to feel that utility is not lowered if taxes on meat are introduced and the households with the highest income levels need to be compensated with 1141 sek euro 109 3 per person and year for the year 2009 these compensations correspond to 0 74 and 0 78 of total expenditures for the low and high income group respectively when instead comparing the compensation with income levels the effects correspond to 0 99 for the households with the smallest income levels and to 0 51 for the households with the largest income

wages policy and unemployment in australia it is generally accepted among australian economists that high rates of growth of wages at various times over the last decade have made the achievement of full employment and lower rates of inflation more difficult fear of a further acceleration of wage growth has also been a policy constraint it is when one attempts to go further that considerable disagreement becomes evident from a labour market viewpoint there does not seem to be a consensus as to the answers to the two broad questions that should be addressed first how important are wage changes relative to other factors that depress employment and add to the inflation rate second how does government policy impinge on the process that generates wage changes to do justice to both of these in a paper as short as this one is difficult so i shall focus most of the paper on the second question the relationships between government policy and wage changes are particularly important at this time for most of the last decade successive governments have operated a national wages policy which to a large degree has been based on the indexation of wages for past price changes the latest experiment the prices and incomes accord is the centrepiece of the current government s employment and inflation policy and after almost two years of wide community and media support the key principles upon which it is based are suddenly being questioned 1 our prime endeavour therefore will be to build up sufficient understanding of the wage determination process so that some evaluation can be made as to the effectiveness of these national wage policies this turns out to be a remarkably difficult task which generates considerable concern in our mind that the data may not be sufficiently rich to serve as a basis for sound judgments it does appear however that the effect of a given level of unemployment upon wage changes has consistently weakened over the last decade why this should be so is a major unresolved puzzle i offer a loosely constructed theory that is consistent with the facts but it is by no means the only possible explanation section i provides a description of wage setting in australia and some key facts of the economy in section ii the statistical analysis of wage changes focuses on two competing theories one is the phillips curve approach and the other stresses that wage outcomes may be to a significant degree independent of the level of unemployment and may depend instead on utilization rates of labour within the firm section iii considers the efficacy of incomes policies in australia some final comments areoffered in section iv

price inertia and policy ineffectiveness in the united states 1890 1980 this paper introduces a new approach to the empirical testing of the lucas sargent wallace lsw policy ineffectiveness proposition which compares the lsw hypothesis with an alternative that states that prices respond fully in the long run but only gradually in the short run to nominal aggregate demand disturbances the empirical equations estimated for a new set of quarterly data extending back to 1890 exhibit uniformly high responses of real output and low responses of price changes to anticipated changes in nominal gnp the paper compares and tests three alternative methods of introducing persistence effects into the lsw framework

wages and prices in the uk this paper investigates the relationship between wages and prices in the uk using a vecm formulation and generalized impulse response functions and persistence profiles because of significant feedbacks it finds that fluctuations in wage growth cannot be used directly to predict fluctuations in inflation

on endogenously staggered prices taylor s model of staggered contracts is an influential explanation for nominal inertia and the persistent real effects of nominal shocks however in standard imperfect competition models if agents are allowed to choose the timing of pricing decisions they will typically choose to synchronize this paper provides a simple model of imperfect competition which produces stable staggering our argument relies on strategic interaction at two levels between firms within an industries and across industries and produces a continuum of staggered price equilibria these equilibria are strict and hence stable under a simple adaptive learning process an enduring problem for business cycle theory is an explanation for the persistent effects of nominal shocks explaining persistence is particularly problematic for theories based on nominal shocks as opposed to real shocks this is because rational expectations implies that nominal shocks themselves cannot be serially correlated since nominal shocks are the deviation of realized nominal magnitudes from expected values in two important papers taylor 1979 1980 provided an argument as to why a nominal shock can have persistent effects taylor s argument required two important assumptions first he assumed that firms could adjust prices only in alternate periods an assumption which may be justified by menu or information costs taylor s second assumption was that price setting was staggered half the firms were constrained to adjust prices in odd periods while the other half were allowed to adjust prices in even periods these two assumptions combined to provide dramatic results on nominal inertia the adjustment of prices to a nominal shock is slow and hence output effects are long lasting taylor s results on persistence arise due to strategic complementarity between price setting decisions this implies that each firm s optimal price is an increasing function of the aggregate price level if a shock arrives in an even period firms in the even cohort will not adjust fully to the nominal shock since firms in the odd cohort have fixed prices in the current period furthermore with rational expectations the even cohort also takes into account the fact that its own failure to adjust fully will also make for partial adjustment in future periods this elegant story has made taylor s model possibly the most influential of new keynesian models by providing a dynamic setting within which small nominal rigidities may result in persistent nominal inertia

real time prediction with u k monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty a popular account for the demise of the u k s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money in this paper we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real time and heavily revised data we consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive var and vector error correction models vecm these models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships we use bayesian model averaging bma to demonstrate that real time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty the in sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty this feature is only apparent with real time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctua