dynamic savings decisions in agricultural environments with incomplete markets we develop a methodology for examining savings behavior in rural areas of developing countries that explicitly incorporates the sequential decision process in agriculture the approach is used to examine the relative importance of alternative forms of savings in the presence and absence of formal financial intermediaries our results based on stage specific panel data from pakistan provide evidence that the presence of financial intermediaries importantly influences the use of formal savings and transfers for income smoothing we also find that there are significant biases in evaluations of the savings income relationship that are inattentive to the within year dynamics of agricultural production

hukou status and individual level labor market discrimination an experiment in china this article examines discrimination based on hukou status a legal construct that segregates locals and migrants in urban china local and migrant household helpers were recruited as experimental

the end of cheap chinese labor abstract in recent decades cheap labor has played a central role in the chinese model which has relied on expanded participation in world trade as a main driver of growth at the beginning of chi

let s not throw the baby out with the bath water the role of urban villages in housing rural migrants in china in the era of china s economic growth and urbanisation providing adequate and affordable housing for rural urban migrants in urban areas is crucial for the success of china s multifaceted reforms

china s uneven progress against poverty while the incidence of extreme poverty in china fell dramatically over 1980 2001 progress was uneven over time and across provinces rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor though migration to urban areas helped the pattern of growth mattered rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product gdp rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor external trade had little short term impact

union power policy making and unemployment in western europe 1972 1993 most recent research on the relationship between trade unions and unemployment focuses on the size and structure of trade union movements and argues either that strong unions are bad for unemployment due to their effect on wages or that encompassing unions are good for unemployment because their wage setting behavior takes economic externalities into account this article reports the results of testing the more political hypothesis that trade union influence on government economic policy is important in leading to lower unemployment via the implementation by governments of more vigorous anti unemployment policies than would otherwise be used a pooled time series analysis provides support for this theory in revealing that union influence as indicated by a newly developed measure of union participation in economic policy making was consistently associated with lower unemployment over a range of 13 west european countries during the period 1972 to 1993

economic social and environmental impacts of fuel subsidies a revisit of malaysia abstract subsidizing energy has been widely used but is economically unfavorable the malaysian government has shown strong intention to reduce energy subsidies recently but face challenges to prepare policy instruments to manage the impact this study develops a computable general equilibrium cge model with breakdown of households by income level to evaluate the potential impacts of removing energy subsidies on the malaysian economy it is shown that removing petroleum and gas subsidy would improve economic efficiency and increase gdp up to 0 65 budget deficit would be largely reduced after removing the petroleum subsidies especially when the saved subsidy cost is not budgeted for other expenditure households would be worse off in most scenarios due to higher price level but some compensation policy could make the lowest income group no worse than baseline without harm the economy the reduction in carbon emissions ranges 1 84 6 63 in different scenarios the simulation results suggest malaysia to completely remove all fuel subsidies and use the saved funding to cut budget deficit or spend on education health and other service sector it is also necessary to set a compensation scheme to minimize public resistance and make sure such scheme is affordable

wealth weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments despite the growing evidence that farmers in low income environments are risk averse there has been little empirical evidence on the importance of risk in shaping the actual allocation of production resources among farmers differentiated by wealth the authors use panel data on investments in rural india to examine how the composition of productive and nonproductive asset holdings varies across farmers with different levels of total wealth and across farmers facing different degrees of weather risk income variability is a prominent feature of the experience of rural agents in low income countries the authors report evidence based on measures of rainfall variability that the agricultural investment portfolio behavior of farmers in such settings reflects risk aversion due evidently to limitations on consumption soothing mechanisms such as crop insurance or credit markets the authors results suggest that uninsured weather risk is a significant cause of lower efficiency and lower average incomes a one standard deviation decrease in weather risk measured by the standard deviation of the timing of the rainy season would raise average profits by up to 35 percent among farmers in the lowest wealth quartile moreover rainfall variability induces a more unequal distribution of average incomes for a given distribution of wealth wealthier farmers are willing to absorb significant risk without giving up profits to reduce production risk smaller farmers have to invest their limited wealth in ways that reduce their exposure to risk at the cost of lower profit rates the authors found that at high levels of rainfall variability differences in rates of profit per unit of agricultural assets were similar across classes of wealth but over the sample range of rainfall variability these rates of profit were always higher for the poorer farmers than for the wealthier ones suggesting that the disadvantages of small farmers in risk diffusion are more than offset by their labor cost advantage

navigating institutional change the accord rogernomics and the politics of adjustment in australia and new zealand this article uses a transactions approach to examine the ability of governments to develop and sustain negotiated solutions to major economic challenges where actors are embedded in long term repeated interaction have long time horizons and invest in monitoring and enforcement technologies effective political exchange is more likely in good transactions environments policy bargains will be more easily renegotiated and therefore more flexible and durable to examine the expectations the author looks to the puzzle posed by events in australia and new zealand 1983 1996 facing similar macroeconomic crises and with historically similar wage bargaining institutions and levels of union density both elect labor governments which then make opposite choices a negotiated solution emerged in australia but not in new zealand relying on the secondary literature and interviews with key actors the author finds support for the transactions approach findings here point to ways in which to broaden the study of

the politics of common knowledge ideas and institutional change in wage bargaining domestic economic institutions change through processes of conflict and bargaining why do the strongest groups in such conflicts ever change their minds about the acceptability of institutional arrangements they once opposed drawing on the cases of ireland in 1986 87 and italy in 1989 93 this article demonstrates how the process of common knowledge creation between employers and unions changed the course of negotiations over national wage bargaining institutions common knowledge creation happens when existing institutions are in crisis the institutional experimentation that follows such crises characterized by deep uncertainty places a premium on persuasive argument the ideas most likely to serve as the basis for newly common knowledge will have analytical and distributive appeal to both unions and employers and they must be ratified in public agreements which i call common knowledge events common knowledge events establish new social facts which can change the payoffs associated with different institutional outcomes this can lead even powerful actors to accept institutions they had previously opposed the author thanks marius busemeyer mary louise culpepper keith darden orfeo fioretos archon fung peter hall andrew martin cathie jo martin victoria murillo kathleen thelen and gunnar trumbull along with three anonymous reviewers and the editors of io for comments and conversations that improved this article ben ansell and vikram siddarth provided valuable research assistance financial support from the john f kennedy school of government and the weatherhead center for international affairs at harvard university is gratefully acknowledged any remaining errors are my own

the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the asean countries abstract this paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among the association of south east asian nations asean 4 members namely indonesia malaysia singapore and thailand using modern time series techniques for the period 1971 2002 the results indicate that there is a bi directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in malaysia and singapore this means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in the two countries however uni directional causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption in indonesia and thailand without any feedback effect thus electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects in the two countries

how does future income affect current consumption this paper tests a straightforward implication of the basic life cycle model of consumption that current consumption depends on expected lifetime income the paper projects future income for a panel of households and finds that consumption is closely related to projected current income but unrelated to predictable changes in income however future income uncertainty has an important effect consumers facing greater income uncertainty consume less the results are consistent with buffer stock models of consumption like those of deaton 1991 or carroll 1992a 1992b where precautionary motives greatly reduce the willingness of prudent consumers to consume out of uncertain future income

chronic and transient poverty measurement and estimation with evidence from china abstract the paper contributes to the measurement of poverty and vulnerability in three ways first it proposes a new approach to separating poverty into chronic and transient components second it provides corrections for the statistical biases introduced when using a small number of periods to estimate the importance of vulnerability and transient poverty third it applies these tools to the measurement of chronic and transient poverty in china using a rich panel data set that extends over 17 years alternative measurement techniques are found to yield significantly different estimates of the relative importance of chronic and transient poverty the precision of the estimates is also considerably enhanced by simple statistical corrections

wage risk and employment risk over the life cycle we specify a structural life cycle model of consumption labour supply and job mobility in an economy with search frictions that allows us to distinguish between different sources of risk and to estimate their effects the sources of risk are shocks to productivity job destruction the process of job arrival when employed and unemployed and match level heterogeneity our model allows for four main social insurance programmes in contrast to simpler models that attribute all income fluctuations to shocks our framework allows us to disentangle the effects of the shocks from the responses to these shocks estimates of productivity risk once we control for employment risk and for individual labour supply choices are substantially lower than estimates that attribute all wage variation to productivity risk increases in productivity risk impose a considerable welfare loss on individuals and induce substantial precautionary saving increases in employment risk have large effects on output and primarily through this channel affect welfare the welfare value of government programs such as food stamps which partially insure productivity risk is greater than the value of unemployment insurance which provides partial insurance against employment risk and no insurance against persistent shocks

consumption puzzles and precautionary savings abstract when marginal utility is convex agents accumulate savings as a precautionary measure against labor income eventualities this paper shows that precautionary savings can go a long way in making the excess growth excess smoothness and excess sensitivity features of consumption consistent with the stochastic processes of labor income observed in the u s at the microeconomic level

the rise of segmented neo corporatism in south america wage coordination in argentina and uruguay 2005 2015 argentina and uruguay are the only democracies in latin america among few in the world that have developed sustained state oriented national and sectoral wage bargaining between employers and un

renewable energy in eastern asia renewable energy policy review and comparative swot analysis for promoting renewable energy in japan south korea and taiwan abstract japan south korea and taiwan are deficient of domestic fossil energy sources and depend significantly on imported fuels since the oil shock in the 1970s all three countries have promoted renewable energy as an alternative energy source to improve energy security currently renewable energy is being promoted to build low carbon economies this study reviews the development of renewable energy policies and roadmaps it also examines and compares strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats swot of these countries in the context of advancing renewable energy policies and technologies and expanding domestic renewable energy installations as well as strategically positioning themselves in the international renewable energy market as exporters of clean energy technologies through the swot analysis this paper identifies a capacity for additional renewable energy deployment in these countries and highlights the necessity of increased cooperation between the three countries to strengthen their domestic and regional renewable energy sectors and compete in the global renewable energy market in the post fukushima era

risk financial markets and human capital in a developing country this paper explores the link between financial market incompleteness and human capital accumulation we examine how child school attendance responds to seasonal fluctuations in the income of agrarian households using panel data from rural india to pinpoint market imperfections we study responses to aggregate and idiosyncratic as well as to anticipated and unanticipated income shocks our main finding is that seasonal fluctuations in school attendance are a form of self insurance but one which does not result in a substantial loss of human capital on average

are the poor less well insured evidence on vulnerability to income risk in rural china the authors test how well consumption is insured against income risk in a panel of sampled households in rural china they estimate the risk insurance models by generalized method of moments treating income and household size as endogenous insurance exists for all wealth groups although the hypothesis of perfect insurance is universally rejected those in the poorest wealth decile are the least well insured with 40 percent of an income shock being passed on to current consumption by contrast consumption by the richest third of households is protected from almost 90 percent of an income shock the extent of insurance in a given wealth stratum varies little between poor and nonpoor areas

geographic poverty traps a micro model of consumption growth in rural china how important are neighbourhood endowments of physical and human capital in explaining diverging fortunes over time for otherwise identical households in a developing rural economy to answer this question we develop an estimable micro model of consumption growth allowing for constraints on factor mobility and externalities whereby geographic capital can influence the productivity of a household s own capital our statistical test has considerable power in detecting geographic effects given that we control for latent heterogeneity in measured consumption growth rates at the micro level we find robust evidence of geographic poverty traps in farm household panel data from post reform rural china our results strengthen the equity and efficiency case for public investment in lagging poor areas in this setting copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

households vulnerability from trade in vietnam abstract this paper assesses vulnerability from trade in vietnam by presenting an extended version of ligon and schechter s 2003 vulnerability as low expected utility veu measure it uses the vietnam household living standard surveys vhlss panel data covering the period 2002 06 the empirical results show that risk induced vulnerability and heterogeneity in trade exposure matter in determining household overall vulnerability and that this is not linked to the actual manifestation of shocks although it does not represent by any means an argument against free trade this work is relevant for policymaking since it contributes to deepen our knowledge on the subtle links between trade openness and vulnerability and informs us about suitable instruments to accompany it

the influence of hukou and college education in china s labour market this paper examines the impact of hukou and college education on job placement and wage attainment for chinese rural migrant workers in the cities the analysis of the 2010 chinese general social survey shows that when rural born individuals gain both urban hukou and college education they enjoy equal job sector placement and they earn significantly higher wages than the college educated locals but in the absence of a rural to urban hukou transfer migrants have fewer opportunities to go to college than local peers and even college education does not gain a migrant an equal chance of working in the state sector or receiving equal earnings a major contribution of this study is to suggest a nine category analytic scheme which takes into account how education hukou and type of workplace affect one another in jointly influencing labour market inequality between rural migrants and urbanite workers

networks in the modern economy mexican migrants in the u s labor market this paper attempts to identify job networks among mexican migrants in the u s labor market the empirical analysis uses data on migration patterns and labor market outcomes based on a sample of individuals belonging to multiple origin communities in mexico over a long period of time each community s network is measured by the proportion of the sampled individuals who are located at the destination the united states in any year we verify that the same individual is more likely to be employed and to hold a higher paying nonagricultural job when his network is exogenously larger by including individual fixed effects in the employment and occupation regressions and by using rainfall in the origin community as an instrument for the size of the network at the destination

performance in competitive environments gender differences even though the provision of equal opportunities for men and women has been a priority in many countries large gender differences prevail in competitive high ranking positions suggested explanations include discrimination and differences in preferences and human capital in this paper we present experimental evidence in support of an additional factor women may be less effective than men in competitive environments even if they are able to perform similarly in non competitive environments in a laboratory experiment we observe as we increase the competitiveness of the environment a significant increase in performance for men but not for women this results in a significant gender gap in performance in tournaments while there is no gap when participants are paid according to piece rate this effect is stronger when women have to compete against men than in single sex competitive environments this suggests that women may be able to perform in competitive environments per se

natural natural experiments in economics the recent literature exploiting natural events as natural experiment instruments is reviewed to assess to what extent it has advanced empirical knowledge a weakness of the studies that adopt this approach is that the necessary set of behavioral market and technological assumptions made by the authors in justifying their interpretations of the estimates is often absent the methodology and findings from twenty studies are summarized and simple economic models are used to elucidate the implicit assumptions made by the authors and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the interpretations of the findings to the relaxation of some of these assumptions

inside china s cities institutional barriers and opportunities for urban migrants one of the most glaring legacies of 20thcentury chinese socialism is a sharp and widened divide between china s urban and rural areas china s widened urban rural divide arose from a socialist industrialization process which created a hastened heavy industrial base at the expense of its rural population china s vast rural population not only endured a standard of living far below that in the urban sector they were also denied access to many social welfare benefits and social mobility opportunities martin king whyte 1996 this urban rural gap in social and economic wellbeing together with a massive reservoir of rural surplus labor and an acute shortage of consumer goods formed the driving forces for china s change of migration control policy and for the rapid increase of rural migrants in chinese cities though the exact number of migrants is still hard to ascertain due to both a lack of consensus in the definition of migrant and the absence of an authoritative national survey migrants prominent presence in chinese cities is hardly disputable in china s largest cities for instance it is often quoted that at least one out of every five persons is a migrant and most likely a migrant from rural areas in shanghai the number of migrants rose tenfold in one decade from 0 26 million in 1981 to 2 81 million in 1993 the percentage of local residents who were migrants correspondingly rose from less than 5 percent in the early 1980 s to 21 7 percent in 1993 changming sun 1997 in beijing the number of migrants was 3 29 million in 1994 compared to a locally registered population of 10 63 million for the whole municipality and 6 million for its city districts dangsheng ji et al 1996 p 95 in city districts one out of every three persons in beijing is a temporary migrant from elsewhere most of these recorded migrants are also genuine migrants not short term visitors more than 60 percent had stayed for more than half of a year and only 17 percent had been in beijing for less than one month three quarters of all the surveyed migrant population listed business or employment as their purpose of stay ji et al 1996 pp 96 97 rural migrants account for over threequarters of all migrants in large chinese cities in shanghai for instance a survey in 1995 found that 88 1 percent of all migrants had their place of household registration in the countryside wang and zuo 1997 similarly in beijing where one expects to see a higher circulation of urban to urban migrants close to 80 percent of migrants surveyed in late 1994 were peasants before moving into beijing xiuhualiu 1996 p 112

when are concerted reforms feasible explaining the emergence of social pacts in western europe under what conditions do governments employers and unions enter formal policy agreements on incomes employment and social security such agreements widely known as social pacts became particularly prominent during the 1990s when european economies underwent major adjustment this article seeks to explain national variation in adjustment strategies and specifically why concerted agreements were struck in some countries but not in others a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis of 14 european countries is employed to assess main arguments about the emergence of pacts the analysis yields two key findings first although prevailing arguments emphasize economic and monetary unionrelated pressures or alternatively unemployment these factors were neither necessary nor in themselves sufficient for pacts to materialize rather a high economic problem load appears to be causally relevant only when combined with particular political and institutional conditions namely the prevalence of electorally weak governments and or an intermediate level of union centralization second the analysis refines existing multicausal explanations of pacts by demonstrating three distinct theoretically and empirically relevant causal pathways to concerted agreements

behavioral responses to risk in rural china does risk perpetuate poverty in a credit constrained economy jalan and ravallion study portfolio and other behavioral responses to measured risk using household panel data for rural china one quarter of wealth is held in unproductive liquid forms but only a small share of this appears to be a precaution against income risk the authors estimate that eliminating income risk would reduce the share of wealth held in liquid form by less than 1 percentage point moreover that effect is confined largely to middle income groups high income households do not it seems need to hold unproductive cautionary wealth and the poor probably cannot afford to do so the authors find no evidence that income risk discourages schooling but risk does inhibit the out migration of labor generally the results provide only limited support for the idea that uninsured risks promote unproductive portfolio behavior in this setting there is such an effect but it is small in magnitude and cannot be deemed an important cause of poverty

migration and child development during the food price crisis in el salvador abstract migration is often used as parts of both ex post and ex ante strategies to mitigate risks to household incomes there is little empirical evidence however of the way that migration actually helps households in times of shocks in this paper i describe how the peak of the worldwide food price crisis affected anthropometric statistics among young children in el salvador and how households with access to international migrants were not affected as negatively as households without such access in 2008 el salvador experienced food price inflation of 15 and the evaluation of red solidaria el salvador s conditional cash transfer program shows that height for age haz z scores among children under 3 years old declined by 0 2 standard deviations on average in this paper i use the red solidaria evaluation data to assess whether children in households with access to remittances or international migrants were better off than households without access to migration income using both repeated cross sectional data and individual panel data i find that as theory would expect children in households with access to international migrants have much lower declines in their haz scores

precautionary behavior migrant networks and household consumption decisions an empirical analysis using household panel data from rural china abstract we develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk 10 of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive and this increases to 15 for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line we next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases

a decomposition method on employment and wage discrimination and its application in urban china 2002 2013 abstract labor market discrimination is an important issue in developing countries where path dependent institutions have been dominant while effective institutional arrangements and policies have been hidden by local customs and culture however the existing applications of classical blinder oaxaca decomposition face criticism for their imprecise understanding of the factors affecting institutional discrimination in labor markets as well as for their lack of power in formulating well targeted anti discrimination policies following oaxaca 1973 we propose a new method to decompose the total discrimination index tdi to analyze employment and wage discrimination in the labor markets of developing countries the tdi is decomposed into the employment discrimination index edi and the wage discrimination index wdi then into the underpayment index to majorities upi and the overpayment index to minorities opi we apply this method to the institutional discrimination against rural migrants in china s urban areas using national representative data from 2002 to 2013 we have found that 1 the tdi increased quickly after china entered the wto then dropped after anti discrimination policies were implemented 2 the tdi is mainly determined by the upi while the tdi s fluctuation is mainly determined by the wdi our method provides insights into the changing composition of employment and wage discrimination and their respective labor market outcomes in developing countries as a result appropriate policy measures may be developed accordingly

the evolution of income inequality in rural china abstract in this article we analyze trends in income inequality and the distribution of income in rural china from 1987 to 1999 we find an uneven but long run increase in inequality in rural china and show that nearly half of the rural population was not much better off in 1999 than at the start of the period we rule out geography as the most important factor for explaining income differences and the increases that occurred over time much more important were growing differences between households living in the same village province or region we also find that access to nonagricultural incomes from local wage employment and family businesses contributes to inequality but that employment outside the county in which a household lives and accessed through temporary migration is relatively equalizing finally we document important strengths and weaknesses of the primary data set used for our analyses relative to other data sources available for study of inequality and poverty in rural china

the snakes and ladders of twenty first century trade unionism trade unions in the advanced countries face a difficult future their core membership bases in manufacturing industry and public services have become declining sectors of employment keynesian demand management on which they depended for tight labour markets has collapsed most industrial relations activity has shifted to the enterprise level which they often find difficult to penetrate precarious employment which makes union membership difficult is growing on the other hand certain advantages offset these weaknesses for a number of different recent economic and political elites often need the support of trade unions for national social pacts also employment conditions continue to create new social problems for working people which only unions can express unions in different countries encounter these combinations of favourable and unfavourable prospects in very different ways which is likely to produce increasing diversity among the emerging national patterns copyright 2000 by oxford university press

social identity and inequality the impact of china s hukou system abstract we conduct an experimental study to investigate the causal impact of social identity on individuals performance under incentives we focus on china s household registration hukou system which favors urban residents and discriminates against rural residents in resource allocation our results show that making individuals hukou identity salient significantly reduces the performance of rural migrant students relative to their local urban counterparts on an incentivized cognitive task and consequently significantly lowers their relative ranking in the earnings distribution under the piece rate regime however the impact of hukou identity salience is insignificant in the tournament regime suggesting that its negative effect on migrant students performance may be mitigated when competition is introduced the results demonstrate the impact of institutionally imposed social identity on individuals economic performance and potentially on inequality

discrimination social identity and durable inequalities what are the mechanisms by which societal discrimination affects individual achievement and why do the effects of past discrimination endure once legal barriers are removed we report the findings of two experiments in village india that suggest that the mechanisms of discrimination operate in part within the individuals who are members of the groups who have been discriminated against we demonstrate that publicly revealing an individual s membership in such a group alters his behavior in ways that make the effects of past discrimination persist over time a growing literature in social psychology on stereotype threat finds that stereotyped based expectations affect individual performance in the domain of the stereotype a study by jeff stone et al 1999 is illustrative when college students were asked to perform a task described as diagnostic of natural athletic ability blacks stereotyped as better athletes but worse students than whites performed better than whites when the same test was presented as diagnostic of sports intelligence the performance of blacks declined that of whites improved and the racial gap was reversed evidence suggests that a mediating factor in stereotype threat is a change in self confidence mara cadinu et al 2005 in our studies we investigated whether the public revelation of social identity caste affects cognitive task performance and responses to economic opportunities by young boys in village india subjects were sixth and seventh graders drawn from the two ends of the caste hierarchy we asked subjects to learn and then perform a task under incentives and we manipulated whether their peers in the experimental session knew their caste caste is well suited to this manipulation because unlike race gender and ethnicity there are no unambiguous outward markers of caste among young boys six subjects generally from six different villages participated in each experimental session in the control condition the subjects were anonymous within the six person group in the experimental conditions the experimenter publicly revealed subjects names and caste in the task solving mazes in which performance was studied here the low caste subjects in the anonymous condition did not perform significantly differently from high caste subjects but when caste identity was publicly revealed in a mixed caste group a significant caste gap emerged the caste gap was due to a 20 percent decline in the average number of mazes solved by the low caste the study shows that publicly revealing the social identity of an individual can change his behavior even when that information is irrelevant to payoffs our results are a generalization of the literature on stereotype threat like that literature we find that individuals performance is more in accordance with the stereotype of the group when group membership is made salient in some way unlike that literature salience in our experiments depends on the public revelation of social identity and more importantly we do not argue that the domain of the tasks undertaken by discussants rachel croson university of pennsylvania iris bohnet harvard university stefano dellavigna university of california berkeley

socio economic development and electricity access in developing economies a long run model averaging approach abstract access to electricity continues to be a popular subject in empirical studies however the choice of key factors related to electricity access in the literature to date has been ad hoc due to the lack of a theoretical framework this paper adopts a bayesian model averaging bma approach to selects important factors related to electricity access from 26 socioeconomic indicators using a sample of 48 developing countries and reveal their long term relationship with electricity access the bma approach allows us to identify the optimal empirical model when a theoretical foundation is not available moreover it allows us to address the relative importance of variables using posterior inclusion probabilities and thus has clear policy relevance our results show that access to finance education economic development infrastructure and industrialisation are positively related to electricity access in the long run although the long run relationship does not indicate causality it shows that to maintain this relationship policy adjustments against any deviations from the relationship are needed our study suggests that electrification needs not only economic educational and infrastructural development but also private sector participation governments commitment and political will and integration with poverty reduction and other development schemes

earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving abstract we test for the presence of precautionary saving using a self reported measure of earnings uncertainty drawn from the 1989 italian survey of household income and wealth the effect of uncertainty on wealth accumulation is consistent with the theory of precautionary saving and with decreasing prudence but explains only a small fraction of saving the results cast doubts on the empirical relevance of precautionary saving in response to earnings uncertainty but are not in contrast with the importance of the precautionary motive per se beside earnings uncertainty other risks such as health and mortality may be important determinants of wealth accumulation

economics and identity this paper considers how identity a person s sense of self affects economic outcomes we incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior in the utility function we propose identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave we then construct a simple game theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions the paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace the economics of poverty and social exclusion and the household division of labor in each case the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis

migration and incomes in source communities a new economics of migration perspective from china the objective of this paper is to understand the effects of china s migration on source communities and to discuss their policy implications we draw from new economics of labor migration nelm theory to understand how migration and migrant remittances can relax or tighten market constraints in china s rural economy using simultaneous equation econometric techniques and household survey data from china we estimate net sectorspecific effects of migration on rural household income focusing on farm production and self employment our econometric findings indicate that the loss of labor to migration has a negative effect on household cropping income in source areas however we provide evidence that remittances sent home by migrants positively compensate for this lost labor effect contributing to household incomes directly and indirectly by stimulating crop and possibly self employment production this finding offers evidence in support of the nelm hypothesis that remittances loosen constraints on production in the imperfect market environments characterizing rural areas in less developed countries taking into account both the multiple effects of migration and the change in household size participating in migration increases household per capita income between 14 and 30 percent migration and incomes in source communities a new economics of migration perspective from china china is experiencing the largest peacetime flow of labor out of agriculture ever witnessed in world history solinger 1999 rozelle et al 1999 despite the rapid expansion of labor migration china s work force is still disproportionately employed in agriculture compared to other countries at similar levels of per capita gdp taylor and martin 2001 hence as china s economy continues to expand the flow of labor to urban areas will continue and even accelerate johnson 1999 the massive flow of labor away from farms has intensified research interest in china s migration in recent years however as in the broader literature on migration in less developed countries most recent studies on china s migration have focused on determining the size and composition of the labor flow macroeconomic implications of increased migration and the effects of migration on urban areas zhao 1999 yang 1999 1997 less emphasis has been placed on researching the effects of migration on the rural communities that migrants leave even though evidence shows that the rural household in the village of origin is typically the central concern of all those involved in migration both those who leave and those who stay behind exceptions include wang and zuo 1999 bai 2001 moreover the recent increase in migration has left policy makers particularly concerned regarding the way source communities will be affected moa 1999 they are concerned that as labor flows away from farms food production and crop income will decline potentially threatening china s food security furthermore policy makers are concerned about the increasing gap between urban and rural household incomes if migration exacerbates this gap some fear that as it grows rural residents eventually will flood cities ill equipped to absorb them others fear that discontent over a rising urban rural income gap could even spill over into political unrest yang 1999 because china s markets and other modern economic institutions are still relatively undeveloped migration may play a pivotal role in creating or overcoming constraints caused by the lack of well functioning markets and or institutions knight and song 1999 benjamin and brandt 2000 the new economics of labor migration nelm literature analyzes migration as a household decision rather than as an individual decision stark 1991 the nelm hypothesizes that rural households facing imperfect market environments decide

consumption and the timing of income risk abstract when formulating a plan for savings does the timing of income risks matter should one be concerned with whether uncertainty in income is in the near term or the distant future of course and the impact of the timing of income risk is the subject of this article using a three period framework we provide approximate solutions for optimal consumption choices for preferences that display constant relative risk aversion and derive the relationship between innovations to income and innovations to consumption growth these results are contrasted with those for quadratic preferences and preferences that display constant absolute risk aversion we analyze consumption saving plans for several different situations of near term and distant future income risk and different kinds of preferences we conclude with a demonstration of the high degree of accuracy of our consumption approximations by comparing them to exact values computed by stochastic simulation

the nonneutrality of monetary policy with large price or wage setters monetary rules matter for the equilibrium rate of employment when the number of price wage setters is small even when assuming rational expectations complete information central bank precommitment and absence of nominal rigidities if the central bank is nonaccommodating sufficiently large unions bargaining independently have an incentive to moderate sectoral money wages and thereby expected real wages the result is an increase in the real money supply and hence higher demand and employment this does not hold with accommodating monetary policy since unions wage decisions cannot then affect the real money supply a similar argument holds for large monopolistically competitive price setters

smoothing consumption by smoothing income hours of work responses to idiosyncratic agricultural shocks in rural india while research has demonstrated that farm households in developing economies are able to protect consumption from idiosyncratic crop shocks little evidence shows how this is achieved this paper examines the extent to which labor markets allow households to shift labor from farm to off farm employment and the extent to which such a shift explains the observed lack of correlation between consumption and idiosyncratic crop shocks the empirical analysis uses a novel measure of the idiosyncratic crop income shock which utilizes information on start of season cropping choices to more accurately estimate household expectations of weather

the determinants of temporary rural to urban migration in china this paper evaluates the impact of various explanatory factors on temporary rural to urban migration in china using a series of probit models of the migration decision the empirical basis of this work is a sample of 11 924 individuals age 16 35 years drawn from the 1995 data of the chinese household income project chip we find that the profiles for migration age and migration education are both quadratic with the least educated and most educated members of rural society being less likely to migrate in addition the marginal effect of education tends to be higher for men than for women an increase in farming income reduces the probability of migration while the amount of land controlled by a household does not have a significant effect on migration in most provinces

how prudent are consumers using data from the consumer expenditure survey this paper presents a simple test that provides an explicit estimate of the parameter in the utility function that reflects the strength of the precautionary saving motive the coefficient of relative prudence the test yields a fairly precise estimate of a small precautionary motive in fact the estimate is too small to be consistent with widely accepted beliefs about risk aversion the presence of liquidity constrained households does not appear to explain this finding and there is some evidence that self selection of households into risky environments also cannot explain the results

creative corporatism the politics of high technology competition in nordic europe this article documents and explains the surprising capacity of several continental european countries to adapt to rapid innovation based competition critics and proponents alike suggest that thes

migrant labor markets and the welfare of rural households in the developing world evidence from china in this paper the authors examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of rural households in china the authors find that increased migration from rural villages leads to significant increases in consumption per capita and that this effect is stronger for poorer households within villages household income per capita and non durable consumption per capita both increase with out migration and increase more for poorer households the authors also establish a causal relationship between increased out migration and investment in housing and durable goods assets and these effects are also stronger for poorer households the authors do not find robust evidence however to support a connection between increased migration and investment in productive activity instead increased migration is associated with two significant changes for poorer households increases both in the total labor supplied to productive activities and in the land per capita managed by the household in examining the effect of migration we pay considerable attention to developing and examining our identification strategy

consumption smoothing migration and marriage evidence from rural india a significant proportion of migration in low income countries particularly in rural areas is composed of moves by women for the purpose of marriage we seek to explain these mobility patterns by examining marital arrangements among indian households in particular we hypothesize that the marriage of daughters to locationally distant dispersed yet kinship related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks analysis of longitudinal south indian village data lends support to the hypothesis marriage cum migration contributes significantly to a reduction in the variability of household food consumption farm households afflicted with more variable profits tend to engage in longer distance marriage cum migration the hypothesized and observed marriage cum migration patterns are in dissonance with standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains

can high inequality developing countries escape absolute poverty do the poor face the same prospects for escaping poverty in high inequality developing countries as in low inequality countries is it possible for inequality to be so great as to stifle prospects of reducing absolute poverty even when other initial conditions and policies are favorable to growth household survey data for developing countries suggest that initial distribution does affect how much the poor share in rising average incomes higher initial inequality tends to reduce growth s impact on absolute poverty by the same token higher inequality diminishes the adverse impact on the poor of general economic contraction combining this evidence with that from recent investigations of inequality s effect on growth the author finds that if inequality is high enough countries that would have very good growth prospects at low levels of inequality may see little or no overall growth and little progress in reducing poverty or even a worsening on both counts the data the author uses suggest that such cases do occur the precision with which key parameters have been estimated makes it difficult to say with confidence how common such cases are but they appear to be in the minority what appear to be the best available estimates suggest that about one fifth of the spells between surveys he analyzed were cases in which poverty was rising yet positive growth in the mean and hence falling poverty is predicted at zero inequality inequality can be high enough to result in rising poverty despite good underlying growth prospects

transition and capital misallocation the chinese case this paper demonstrates that the allocation of household savings to state owned enterprises soes in china and not to the increasing share of private firms explains both the patterns of capital flows fdi entries and the accumulation of foreign assets and the drop in the consumption share during china s transition the contribution is to explain these two elements in a dynamic general equilibrium model with tfp growth that differentiates fdi and foreign assets in addition to other frictions financial intermediation and soes have the crucial role by misdirecting household savings it modifies firms labor and capital intensiveness and creates shifts in savings accumulation and capital flows moreover the increasing share of credit constrained private firms hinders wage growth and returns on household savings are low to finance soes these two elements reduce the consumption share with a calibration adapted to the chinese economy and deterministic shocks the model also matches to a large extent the data for a variety of stylized facts over the last 30 years

policy concertation in europe understanding government choice this article focuses on the european governments decision to involve unions and employers in the design and implementation of public policy based on new measures of the phenomenon the authors argue that between 1974 and 2003 no convergence on a pluralist model of policy formation is visible they then use these measures to identify and analyze the clearest cases of adoption or demise of concertation namely the contrasting responses of the british and irish governments to wage policy and of the austrian and italian governments to pension reform they argue that governments are willing to share their policy making prerogatives when they are politically weak and when unions while still representing a credible threat to policy implementation have been declining in the recent past a combination of partisanship and policy learning reinforces the push for change

garp for kids on the development of rational choice behavior in this paper we examine the extent to which consumption choices by 7 and 11 year old children and college undergraduates satisfy the axioms of revealed preference we find that choices by even the 7 year olds are considerably more likely to obey revealed preference axioms than would be true if they were choosing randomly 11 year olds do better still while college students do no better than 11 year old children we also find that mathematical ability is not correlated with choosing rationally we argue that this evidence suggests that the ability to choose rationally is not innate but that it does develop quickly

ex ante and ex post labor supply response to risk in a low income area abstract this paper tests for ex ante and ex post labor supply responses to weather risk for rural indian farm households the analysis uses panel data on 2115 households spanning 13 states in rural india merged with a 22 year series of district level rainfall data ex ante households facing riskier distributions of rainfall are more likely to participate in the labor market ex post unexpectedly bad weather and low rainfall increase labor force participation

the nature of precautionary wealth abstract this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to provide some of the first direct evidence that wealth is systematically higher for consumers with predictably greater income uncertainty however the apparent pattern of precautionary wealth is not consistent with a standard parameterization of the life cucle model in which consumers are patient enough to begin saving for retirement early in life wealth is estimated to be far less sensitive to uncertainty than implied by that model instead our results suggest that over most of their working life time consumers behave in accordance with the buffer stock models of saving described in carroll 1992 1997 or deaton 1991 in which consumers hold wealth principally to insulate consumption against near term fluctuations in income

negotiating the italian pension reform with the unions lessons for corporatist theory using field research at both the national and the local levels the author reconstructs the process that led to pension reform in italy this reconstruction becomes the basis for a critical re examination of corporatist theory which has recently been challenged by the emergence of social pacts in a host of unlikely countries including italy the author argues that the theory s traditional emphasis on hierarchical and internally undemocratic interest groups is fundamentally at odds with the particular organizational mechanisms through which consensus was mobilized among both middle level union structures and rank and file workers in italy in contrast with standard neo corporatist theory the italian pension reform shows that organizational democracy far from weakening the hands of reformist union leaders may actually strengthen them

risk constrained self scheduling of hydro wind units for short term electricity markets considering intermittency and uncertainty abstract in view of the intermittency and uncertainty associated with both the electricity production sector of restructured power system and their competitive markets it is necessary to develop an appropriate risk managing scheme so that it is desirable to trade off between optimum utilization of intermittent generation resources i e renewable energy resources uncertain market prices and related risks in order to maximize participants benefits and minimize the corresponding risks in the multi product market environment the main goal of this paper is to investigate risk management by introducing a novel multi risk index to quantify expected downside risk edr which is caused by both the wind power and market price uncertainties value at risk var method is used to assess the mentioned risk issue by the proposed weighted edr so that an optimal trade off between the profit and risk is made for the system operations also the roulette wheel mechanism is employed for random market price scenario generation wherein the stochastic procedure is converted into its respective deterministic equivalents moreover the autoregressive integrated moving average arima model is employed to characterize the stochastic wind farm wf generation by predetermined mean level and standard deviation of wind behavior as well as temporal correlation the problem is formulated as a mixed integer stochastic framework for a hydro wind power system scheduling and tested on a generation company genco

precautionary saving and subjective earnings variance abstract in this paper i examine a model of precautionary saving and i show that the fact that people may insure against income risk makes it difficult to evaluate the extent of precautionary accumulation by simply looking at the relationship between wealth and earnings variance i also argue that occupations may represent a bad proxy for income risk

a theory of the consumption function with and without liquidity constraints fifteen years ago milton friedman s 1957 treatise a theory of the consumption function seemed badly dated dynamic optimization theory had not been employed much in economics when friedman wrote and utility theory was still comparatively primitive so his statement of the permanent income hypothesis never actually specified a formal mathematical model of behavior derived explicitly from utility maximization instead friedman relied at crucial points on intuition and verbal descriptions of behavior although these descriptions sounded plausible when other economists subsequently found multiperiod maximizing models that could be solved explicitly the implications of those models differed sharply from friedman s intuitive description of his model furthermore empirical tests in the 1970s and 1980s often rejected these rigorous versions of the permanent income hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis that many households simply spent all of their current income today with the benefit of a further round of mathematical and computational advances friedman s 1957 original analysis looks more prescient than primitive it turns out that when there is meaningful uncertainty in future labor income the optimal behavior of moderately impatient consumers is much better described by friedman s original statement of the permanent income hypothesis than by the later explicit maximizing versions furthermore in a remarkable irony much of the empirical evidence that rejected the permanent income hypothesis as specified in tests of the 1970s and 1980s is actually consistent both with friedman s original description of the model and with the new version with serious uncertainty there are four key differences between the explicit maximizing models

property rights labour markets and efficiency in a transition economy the case of rural china we investigate the consequences of imperfect factor market development for farm efficiency in north china we estimate the extent to which an inverse relationship in farm productivity can be attributed to the administrative as opposed to market allocation of land combined with unevenly developed off farm opportunities using a new household survey we find considerable inefficiency in the use of labour this inefficiency is alleviated by external labour markets and to a limited degree by administrative reallocations the reallocations do not go far enough however which raises important questions about con straints on rental activity and property rights formation more generally jel classification q15 012

risk pooling precautionary saving and consumption growth in this paper we model the evolution of income risk and consumption growth we decompose the time series innovation of the income process into its common and cohort specific components from these we compute conditional variances which are used as separate risk terms in a consumption growth equation using a long series of british household data we exploit the time series variation to identify precautionary saving effects and find strong evidence of their importance specifically after allowing for demographic and labour market status there is an independent role for income risk in explaining consumption growth rather than the component that is common across cohorts however it is the cohort specific element that is important in determining changes in consumption growth this result points to a failure of between cohort insurance mechanisms

impacts of migration and remittances on ethnic income inequality in rural china summary migration is often viewed as the best option for poor rural households to exit out of poverty although the distributional effects of migrants remittances tend to be ambiguous in the literature given that increasing income inequality is a major concern and policy issue this paper examines the impacts of migration and migrants remittances on income inequality in china s rural minority areas using recent proprietary household data treating migrants remittances as a potential substitute for income the results reveal that migration significantly boosts income for all ethnic groups although the returns to ethnic minority households tend to be less than for han households decomposition analyses further reveal that migration increases inequality between ethnic groups despite reducing spatial inequality these countervailing effects imply that the continual transfer of rural urban migrants will likely lead to spatial convergence despite reinforcing ethnic inequalities in rural minority areas importantly the percentage contribution of ethnic inequality to total inequality is larger than that of spatial inequality across sampled rural locations thus highlighting the fact that the ethnic dimension is an important yet often overlooked component of inequality in china

using weather variability to estimate the response of savings to transitory income in thailand this paper measures the extent to which farmers are able to use savings and dissavings to smooth consumption in response to unexpected shocks to income time series information on regional rainfall is used to construct estimates of transitory income due to rainfall shocks the relationship between these measures of transitory income and savings indicates that farm households save a significantly higher fraction of transitory income than nontransitory income jel d91 016 the incomes of farm households in developing countries are notorious for being both low and uncertain policies that increase the incomes of farmers may well be different

the left and organized labor in low inflation times this article presents fresh empirical data showing that policy alignment between center left governments and trade unions was a sustained feature of european politics between 1974 and 2005 this contradicts expectations of a wide delinkage between the electoral left and labor as a consequence of globalization deindustrialization and unionization decline however structural economic change has altered the policy field so that sustained policy alignment can no longer be explained by existing theoretical frameworks based on a theoretical argument and a multivariate empirical test the article contends that policy alignment is likelier to occur if labor plays an important role in economic management at the microlevel and the industry level and if unions are politically cohesive agents thanks to powerful confederation leadership supported by democratic decision making practices in making its case the article bridges the literatures on comparative capitalism and party politics in order to account for change and continuity in policy making processes

the importance of the savings device in precautionary savings empirical evidence from rural bangladesh we test if precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural households differs across the forms of savings using monthly panel data from bangladesh we find that on average the savings device does not matter but that the effect of income on savings indeed depends on the savings device precautionary savings in the form of staple grain are relatively constant across income quartiles while nongrain precautionary savings vary across income quartiles previous studies which treat these two types of savings devices as fungible misdiagnose the reasons for and by extension the market failures behind a large percentage of the precautionary savings held by rural households

risk and household grain management in developing countries a dynamic model is presented of a household s joint production storage and trade decisions when facing transaction costs and risk in prices and yields grain management decisions balance the goals of maximising profits and reducing consumption price risk model solutions calibrated to chinese data show that grain s consumption role makes it an attractive form of precautionary saving even when households have access to credit the joint nature of production and savings decisions limits the income loss associated with risk coping and the desire to store grain can explain why subsistence households are frequently net purchasers but rarely net sellers of grain

evolution and human nature from an economic perspective on individual decision making human beings have three key characteristics preferences beliefs and rationality beliefs are the probabilities with which people think various outcomes will occur conditional on information that might be available preferences are the rankings over the set of gambles that are based on such beliefs over the outcomes rationality is the extent to which people succeed in choosing optimal actions in the light of their beliefs and preferences and the extent to which their beliefs are appropriately modified by their information economists typically impose only rather weak assumptions on preferences for example preferences are taken to be transitive and sometimes less explicitly exogenous and unchanging stronger assumptions are typically imposed on preferences in specific contexts however for example preferences over time might be represented by an additively separable function with constant rate of discount despite widespread recognition that this case is a special one further attitudes to risk are often represented by the expected utility theorem which rests on assumptions that are strong if also appealing the assumptions made on rationality in particular are usually very strong that is rationality in economic models usually entails the exact optimization of preferences and modification of beliefs in accordance with bayes theorem the economist s basic picture of preferences beliefs and rationality has been subject to challenges from a growing number of empirical anomalies the proposed explanations of these anomalies involve relaxing the assumptions that economists make on these preferences beliefs or rationality for example preferences

renewable energy in five south east asian countries review on electricity consumption and economic growth abstract the present study is an archival statistical overview of the possibility of renewable energy production in five south east asian countries and their economic capacity the five south east asian countries under review are the philippines thailand malaysia indonesia and singapore all of which have a combined population of 420 million this number is a little less than the population of 25 european countries these five countries have created a large market in the world and have enjoyed significant economic growth in recent years tropical climate in the region facilitates the potential for using clean and green energies this article clarifies the effective relation between energy capacities and economic indices in these countries and analyzes the results using a survey the paper shows that despite the shortage of energy in these countries brought by their fast economic growth the share of renewable energy in energy production is constantly declining and more reliance is still placed on fossil fuels for energy production

a numerical simulation analysis of hukou labour mobility restrictions in china abstract we use numerical simulation methods to analyze the hukou system of permanent registration in china which many believe has supported growing relative inequality over the last 20 years by restraining labour migration both between the countryside and urban areas and between regions and cities our aim is to inject economic modelling into the debate on sources of inequality in china which thus far has been largely statistical we first use a model with homogeneous labour in which wage inequality across various geographical divides in china is supported solely by quantity based migration restrictions urban rural areas rich poor regions eastern central and western non coastal zones eastern and central western development zones eastern central western zones more disaggregated 6 regional classifications and an all 31 provincial classification we calibrate this model to base case data and when we remove migration restrictions all wage and most income inequality disappears results from this model structure points to a significant role for hukou restrictions in supporting inequality in china we then present a further model extension in which urban house price rises retard rural urban migration the impacts of removing hukou restrictions on migration are smaller but are still significant finally we modify the model to capture labour productivity differences across regions calibrating the modified model to estimates of both national and regional gini coefficients removal of migration barriers is again inequality improving but less so

how urban segregation distorts chinese migrants consumption summary this paper provides a new explanation for china s low consumption to gdp ratio by highlighting the constraints of the household registration system hukou on china s household consumption our baseline results show that the consumption of migrants is 16 20 lower than that of local urban residents we further find evidence suggesting that caused by hukou restrictions migrants save more for precautionary purposes have lower expectation of permanent income and consume much less durable goods because of high mobility moreover we have found no evidence that the consumption heterogeneity can be explained by migration effects culture or other forms of household heterogeneity as both the number and income level of migrants are rising quickly the constraining effects of hukou on household consumption is increasing 2014 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

what makes growth sustained abstract we identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define growth spells periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or with the end of the sample growth spells tend to be shorter in african and latin american countries than elsewhere we find evidence that growth duration is positively related to the degree of equality of the income distribution democratic institutions export orientation with higher propensities to export manufactures greater openness to fdi and avoidance of exchange rate overvaluation favorable for duration and macroeconomic stability

strong versus weak ties in migration abstract this paper studies the role of strong versus weak ties in rural to urban migration decisions in china we develop a network model that puts forward the different roles of weak and strong ties in helping workers to migrate to the city we use unique longitudinal data that allow us to test our model by focusing on first time migration we address the endogeneity of weak ties using an instrumental variable procedure our results indicate that weak and strong ties provide different type of help and hence act as complements in the migration decision with the interactive effect being particularly strong above a certain threshold of weak ties

household saving micro theories and micro facts in this survey we review the recent theoretical and empirical literature on household saving and consumption the discussion is structured around a list of motives for saving and how well the standard theory captures these motives we show that almost all of the motives for saving that have been suggested in the informal saving literature can be captured in the standard optimizing model particular attention is given to recent work on the precautionary motive and its implications for saving and consumption behavior we also discuss the behavioral or psychological approach that eschews the use of standard optimization techniques and focuses instead on direct consideration on saving we provide a section on facts who save and how much we then discuss informally the recent decline in the u s saving rate and whether the theory is of much use in understanding this and other changes in aggregate saving rates over time we do not find any convincing explanation for the change in saving rates we also discuss some analyses of saving behavior over the life cycle addressing such questions as whether households save enough for retirement and whether the consumption patterns of older households can be rationalized within a simple life cycle model we also review a great number of studies of the consumption euler equations based on our analysis of the studies cited we conclude that there is still mixed evidence that consumption is excessively sensitive to income we also examine in depth the recent empirical literature on the precautionary motive we conclude that although some households do seem to have a significant precautionary motive at some points in their life cycle this motive is not so strong empirically as some investigators suggest

gender and competition at a young age gender gaps may be observed in a variety of economic and social environments one of the possible determining factors is that men are more competitive than women and so when the competitiveness of the environment increases the performance of men increases relative to that of women we test this hypothesis in a field study conducted with 9 year old children running on a track they first run alone and then in pairs over a short distance with different gender composition of the pairs the results support the hypothesis that performance in competition varies according to gender when children ran alone there was no difference in performance in competition boys but not girls improved their performance this finding relates to the discussion regarding single sex schools the outcomes of examinations in a mixed sex school can show a gender gap in favor of boys even when this gap does not reflect actual abilities girls who are as talented as boys will end up performing worse just because they are not as competitive and will not achieve as high scores in examinations as boys

wealth accumulation and distribution in urban china abstract under socialism it was neither possible nor necessary to accumulate significant levels of personal wealth the acceleration of economic reform in the last decade however has brought dramatic increases in income and investment opportunities reform has also reduced social protections provided by the state welfare system in response to these changes between 1995 and 2002 urban average real household net total wealth increased by 24 per annum there is a concern however that those accumulating wealth are the economic and political elites while those unable to accumulate wealth are the most vulnerable workers who are losing social protection using chinese urban survey data of 1995 1999 and 2002 this article investigates this issue it is found that households with above average income have accumulated more wealth than their poorer counterparts in addition a large proportion of this wealth accumulation may be from nonearned sources such as buying larger and better housing at highly su

do migrants really save more understanding the impact of remittances on savings in rural china abstract this article studies the impact of remittances on the savings behaviour of rural households in china using a primary survey undertaken by the authors in 2006 allowing for endogeneity and left censoring of remittances we find that the marginal propensity to save out of remittances is well below half of that out of other sources of incomes moreover we find no evidence of any direct effect of remittances on either capital input or gross output of farm production these findings are robust with respect to alternative definition of savings and are in line with recent studies which conclude that remittances are largely used for consumption purposes by rural chinese households

comprehensive measurement of energy market integration in east asia an application of dynamic principal component analysis abstract the energy market integration emi in east asia has been carried out for over a decade despite the efforts exerted by countries in the region little has been known about the emi progress this paper innovatively applies the dynamic principal component analysis to measure the emi and its evolution in east asia between 1995 and 2011 the emi is measured by using information from all the five dimensions that have been identified in the literature 1 energy trade liberalisation 2 investment liberalisation 3 development of energy infrastructure and its associated institutional arrangements 4 domestic market openness and 5 energy pricing reform results show that although significant progress has been made for emi in east asia there are significant cross country disparities in different aspects moreover we show that further efforts towards emi in general should focus on liberalising national markets first then phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and finally liberalising investment regime since national market liberalisation is the least developed dimensions certain countries that lag behind in emi need to learn from either their past experiences or from other nations and focus their efforts on their relatively weak dimensions

shocks and asset dynamics in ethiopia abstractthis article uses household survey panel data of 416 rural households to study asset dynamics in the northern highlands of ethiopia and the response of assets to shocks the period under examination 1996 2003 was marked by severe environmental shocks including a series of droughts the article empirically studies the nature of household asset paths over time using as the point of departure the theory on precautionary savings behavior results indicate that the response of assets to weather shocks the differential effect of these shocks on liquid and less liquid forms of wealth holdings and the nature of asset dynamics are all consistent with the implications of a precautionary motive for holding wealth

leaders managers and the organization of township and village enterprises in china abstract the managerial contractual form in china s township and village enterprise tve sector has evolved rapidly during the past 10 years our paper uses descriptive data and a theoretical model to demonstrate that these changes may be occurring in response to the rapid development of markets in transitional rural china we econometrically test the model s main hypotheses showing that the driving force behind the movement from a leader run fixed wage contract to a fixed payment contract with better incentives for the manager is the relative value of non marketed inputs owned by local leaders and firm managers firm technical structure and local market setting also plays a role in the determination of firm contractual form

a review of biofuel policies in the major biofuel producing countries of asean production targets policy drivers and impacts since the turn of this century development of biofuels have progressed rapidly in indonesia malaysia philippines and thailand the major biofuels producing countries in the asean association of south east asian nations the article analyses the biofuel polices underlying drivers and way forward for sustained biofuel development in these countries favorable regulatory and economic mechanisms have played an important role in the production utilization and market penetration of biofuels in these countries a large variety of biofuel support policies are in place ranging from policy targets blending mandates tax incentives and other financial schemes to stimulate the development and adoption of biofuels indonesia is leading the region in biodiesel production and thailand is leading in ethanol production though each of these countries have had occasional setbacks in their production in totality there has been positive growth in biofuel production and an upward trend in future is likely with increased demand consumption enforcement of mandates and realization of policy targets the biofuel development of these countries is motivated by several factors mainly their concerns for energy security e g to reduce the dependence of oil imports and socio economic development e g to increase income generating opportunities climate change is not the primary motive of these countries to pursue biofuel development however sustainable production of biofuels and reliance on second generation biofuels can provide opportunities for these countries to translate their growth potential into economic revenues under carbon finance and thus address greenhouse gas emissions and climate change concerns

the future of asean energy mix a swot analysis this paper assesses competing outlooks for energy mix in the association of southeast asian nations asean highlighting the paradox of its fossil fuel dominated outlooks when contrasted with its aspirations to move toward a green energy mix and reviews green energy strategies using the strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats swot analysis method the paper argues that despite the looming brown outlooks due to the expected surge of coal the asean region has many advantages in providing cleaner energy for its green vision however reduction of co2 emissions has not been explicitly set in the region s policy agenda and thus green energy potential is underdeveloped to achieve a greener energy mix asean needs to make further efforts such as cleaner use and removal of subsidies of fossil fuels promotion of renewables and energy efficiency regional market integration and connectivity and execution of existing plans by nations ultimately each of these strategies will require sustained leadership political determination and concrete actions from stakeholders in particular national governments across the region