money demand and seigniorage maximizing inflation conventional estimates of the seigniorage maximizing inflation rate often make use of the cagan form which implies a constant semielasticity of money demand with respect to inflation this paper shows that the elasticity of substitution in transactions between money and bonds determines how the inflation semielasticity of money demand changes as inflation rises allowing for a variable semielasticity estimates of seigniorage maximizing inflation for a panel of eleven high inflation countries are lower than those obtained by using the cagan form estimates based on the correct measure of the opportunity cost of money also differ sharply from those obtained when using conventional inflation measures copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

the amenity and disamenity impacts of agriculture estimates from a hedonic pricing model the positive and negative externalities from farmland are increasingly a focus of public policy discussion about agriculture and land use a gis based hedonic pricing model shows that agricultural open space increases nearby residential property values but larger scale animal operations and mushroom production have negative impacts animal production facilities with as few as 200 animal equivalent units reduce nearby property values but larger facilities do not necessarily generate larger impacts because they tend to occur together the negative impacts of animal agriculture and the positive impacts of open space must be simultaneously modeled to avoid omitted variable bias

when is stabilization expansionary evidence from high inflation countries which stabilize from high inflation here defined as an annual rate above 40 usually have output expansions in the first and subsequent years of stabilization these expansions occur in both exchange rate based and money based stabilizations the paper reaches these conclusions after examining a sample of all 28 episodes in the international data that meet a pre defined criterion for stabilization from high inflation the results do not change with alternative growth and stabilization definitions the paper documents similar expansionary stabilizations in historical data and in the recent experience of the former communist economies expansionary stabilizations may be an indirect confirmation of recent theories of political economy that predict that stabilization will not occur until the gains are very large william easterly

inflation and reputation in many macroeconomic models with rational expectations optimal policy is time inconsistent and therefore announced policy may not be credible this paper models the government s credibility explicitly using kreps and wilson s analysis time consistent optimal government policy emerges as a sequential equilibrium in a repeated game this policy is at least as good as the inconsistent optimal policy and dominates the consistent policy when reputational effects are ignored thus the analysis resolves the problem of specifying a credible optimal policy in such models the results show why attempts to disinflate may lead to recession even with perfectly flexible prices this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

anticipated policy and endogenous growth in a small open monetary economy abstract this paper analyzes the effects of a preannounced change in the growth rate of credit in a small open economy the model based on an endogenous growth model introduces the adjustment costs for investment and the role of money in the production function and highlights the dynamic behavior of an open economy we show that an increase in the rate of anticipated credit growth lowers the steady growth rate of capital real money balances and real output we also find that the rate of depreciation of the domestic currency will rise steadily toward its stationary level the anticipated domestic credit growth hence exhibits monetary nonsuperneutrality in both the rate and the level of output in the intermediate and the long run

the effect of salaries and opportunity costs on duration in teaching evidence from michigan this paper demonstrates that salaries and opportunity costs have important influences on how long teachers stay in teaching the empirical work is based on a new longitudinal dataset providing information on the careers of 7800 michigan public school teachers the generalized least squares estimation technique accommodates censored observations time varying covariates and fixed effects one implication of the result is that predictions from the current generation of teacher supply and demand models are likely to be misleading copyright 1989 by mit press

credibility debt and unemployment ireland s failed stabilization ireland s disinflation rudiger dornbusch disinflation requires a switch to tough policies if these are fully and immediately reflected in expectations and actual prices there need be little output cost of disinflation this paper analyses the stabilization programme in ireland in the 1980s it may be that ems membership offers a credibility bonus by joining the ems playing by the rules of fixed exchange rates and tying the currency to german price stability a country can achieve a dramatic turnaround in expectations inflation and long interest rates but the evidence shows international disinflation in the 1980s was not limited to ems members the irish example demonstrates a second lesson disinflation and tight money have been accompanied by a serious public debt problem and soaring unemployment unless these problems can be tackled it may become necessary in future to resort once more to inflation and the printing press long interest rates suggest that the bond market does not yet take such fear seriously

policies to move from stabilization to growth although some discussions of stabilization see growth as more or less an assured product of appropriate stabilization this paper argues that there is no guarantee that stabilization will lead to growth it may result in stagnation the paper discusses the essentials of stabilization including inflation targets fiscal policy monetary policy exchange rates and incomes policy and suggests that two areas of structural reform deregulation including trade reform and reform of the financial sector can play a central role in the long run success of a stabilization effort the paper concludes that countries that have experienced protracted high inflation financial instability and payments crises probably will have a difficult and protracted transition to growth and that external resources will be necessary as a continuing feature of the transition sustained external support in the form of long term loans heavily conditioned on the tangibility and credibility of domestic progress in adjustment will help provide a bridge by which flight capital may return and foreign direct investment may be encouraged to take advantage of fresh opportunities

what have we learned about policy and growth from cross country regressions economists have been seeking to comprehend why some countries are rich and others poor for well over 200 years a better understanding of the national policies associated with long run growth would both contribute to our ability to explain cross country differences in per capita incomes and provide a basis for making policy recommendations that could lead to improvements in human welfare recently economists have used cross country regressions to search for empirical linkages between longrun growth and indicators of national policies e g roger kormendi and philip meguire 1985 robert j barro 1991 the large cross country growth literature has identified various fiscal monetary trade exchange rate and financial policy indicators that are significantly correlated with longrun growth yet levine and david renelt 1992 show that many of these findings are fragile to small alterations in the conditioning information set that is small changes in the right hand side variables produce different conclusions regarding the relationship between individual policies and growth in this paper we take stock of what the profession has learned from cross country regression studies of policy and long run growth i limitations

exports and economic growth in bangladesh this study investigates the effect of exports on economic growth in bangladesh based on a two sector growth model using annual data for the period 1961 92 the article estimates an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model of economic growth which is found to capture the volatility of the bangladesh economy the results suggest that an increase in the share of investment in gdp significantly increases the growth rate of gdp in normal years but negligibly increases gdp growth in abnormal years abnormalities in the economy arise from war political turmoil and natural disasters the key finding is that export growth has significantly increased economic growth through its positive impact on total factor productivity in the economy the contribution of exports to economic growth was more pronounced during 1982 90 when the government pursued a policy of trade liberalisation and structural reform and political turmoil was not persistent this finding is not sensitive to the choice of the model or t

distributional implications of macroeconomic policy theory and applications to el salvador abstract this article offers a theoretical framework for designing macroeconomic strategy for el salvador that will both respect stabilization and structural adjustment needs and enhance social equity after outlining the largely negative distributional implications of the orthodox policies followed by el salvador in recent years we argue that stabilization and efficiency could actually be improved by increased equity and sketch out the elements of an alternative approach that would be distributionally sensitive and thereby help consolidate the peace

fiscal reforms and stabilisation four hyperinflation cases examined this paper discusses a hypothesis that is common to several recent explanations for the needs of hyperinflations of the 1920s namely that fiscal reforms had been responsible for their sudden end it is suggested that the very presence of these reforms can be disputed once evidence is provided on the fact that budget deficits were mostly caused by the so called oliveira tanzi effect i e deficits were mostly generated by inflation itself some observations are offered on other issues to be addressed if an alternative explanation for the stabilizations are to be found copyright 1990 by royal economic society

the impacts of the tax deferred exchange provision on farm real estate values this study examines the effects of the section 1031 tax deferred exchange provision on agricultural land values the provision allows taxpayers to defer taxation for relinquished productive assets if a like kind asset is acquired within the allotted time of 180 days the analysis examines a set of 3 580 farm real estate transaction from 55 agricultural counties in indiana over the period 2003 2006 hedonic price analysis suggests that properties acquired under a like kind exchange are associated with a 1 32 price premium jel h23 q15

lessons from experiences with high inflation in economies where price control has been the rule the most serious concern may be recognition of the inflation problem beyond the initial correction of subsidies there is the broader issue of the risk of a serious inflation this article looks at the problem of high inflation in developing countries in europe and latin america and draws lessons from historical experience it analyzes the dynamics of the interaction among deficit finance institutional innovation in financial markets dollarization and the s hortening of wage contracts in high inflation situations when stabilization is undertaken there is neither immediate spontaneous resumption of longer adjustment periods for wages and prices nor instant increase of real money demand to noninflationary levels incomes policy freezing exchange rates wages and prices is advocated as an effective supplement to the inevitable budget cut to make up for institutional inertia and facilitate the start of the stabilization process

public sector layoffs credibility and the dynamics of inflation in a simple macromodel abstract the impact of public sector layoffs is analyzed in a simple perfect foresight model that incorporates the main elements of the conflict between adjustment and the pursuit of long run efficiency permanent layoffs are normally welfare improving even when they give rise to a lengthy phase of high unemployment the transitional problems are much more acute however when doubts exist about the permanency of the layoffs self fulfilling failure is frequently an equilibrium when it is known that a return of inflation to its previous level will provoke the government to reverse the reform moreover reform may be most difficult to sustain precisely when it promises the greatest benefits

public sector price controls and electoral cycles public enterprise prices are important policy instruments in developing economies this is why public sector price polices constitute a key element of stabilization programmes implemented in these economies however this significance is not specific to stabilization episodes first this study questions whether an opportunistic politician can manipulate public prices to win elections it analyses the impact of such price controls on budget deficits and the repercussions of alternative financing mechanisms of these deficits on the inflation rate and voters behaviour it is shown that electoral inflation cycles are obtained under domestic debt financing whereas money financing does not permit such a manipulative policy second by focusing on data of the turkish economy for the 1987 1 2003 12 period empirical evidence for such manipulative policies is given

the dynamics of optimal gradual stabilizations inflation inertia may be quite tenacious because of the simultaneous interaction between policy actions and inflationary expectations under imperfect credibility this result is particularly relevant for understanding some of the failed efforts to stabilize inflation in south america this article deals with the issue of inertia in the framework of imperfect information about the type of the policymaker and extends the existing models to an infinite horizon because policymakers do not have perfect control of inflation a frivolous stabilizer may deviate from the policies of a serious stabilizer without necessarily being unmasked immediately when the difference in the ability of strong and weak policymakers to control inflation is large unexpected inflation may be persistently negative for quite a while thus causing reduced economic activity and giving the indication that credibility is low if the policymaker persists with the stabilization this pattern gradually disappears as his reputation rises but before this final stage the serious policymaker has to compromise his inflation objective in view of adverse expectation about this type and pay the cost of imperfect credibility

seigniorage and inflation the case of argentina this paper studies the relation between seigniorage and inflation in argentina for the period 1979 1989 we estimate a money demand function and derive the laffer curve for several sub periods with different monetary exchange rate regimes we find that for most of the period the argentine economy remained on the efficient side of the laffer curve the long run revenue maximizing rate of inflation has been around 20 percent per month for the tablita 1979 1981 and post austral 1985 1988 periods and around 30 percent per month for the pre austral period 1982 1985 the long run maximum level of seigniorage has been above 6 percent of gdp our results imply that the hyperinflation experienced by argentina in 1989 can be interpreted as an unstable phenomenon that resulted from the need to collect a level of seigniorage that exceeded the maximum warranted by the demand for money copyright 1995 by ohio state university press

learning rational expectations in a policy game abstract rational expectations is a maintained assumption in the analysis of economic policy here we examine how two types of learning rational expectations rational and econometric affect the time profile of optimal policy in both cases the government adopts policies which delay convergence to rational expectations there is also a reduction in the inflationary bias in one case permanently in the other temporarily the results also show that reputation effects will be explained by models of learning

structural uncertainty and subsidy removal for economies in transition abstract economies in transition are faced with a high degree of structural uncertainty i e uncertainty about which it is possible to learn through experience we study structural uncertainty s effects on a subsidy removal program subsidy removal causes unemployment but yields fiscal benefits and facilitates private sector growth when the policymaker does not know the speed with which the private sector absorbs the unemployed he will be driven toward a more decisive and therefore more informative policy the model also rationalizes policy reversals and implies that irreversibility constraints and political instability dampen the learning effect making policy more gradualist

fiscal adjustment financial liberalization and the dynamics of inflation some evidence from zambia the liberalization of foreign exchange and domestic asset markets imposes fiscal costs on governments which are net purchasers of foreign currency from the private sector and net borrowers from the financial system fiscal costs increase if liberalization also induces the private sector to reduce domestic money balances in favor of foreign currency and domestic interest bearing assets the substitution out of domestic money reduces seigniorage revenue accruing to government and unless offsetting fiscal adjustment can be made will often lead to accelerating inflation this paper presents a model of inflation and financial liberalization applied to recent stabilization experiences in zambia to illustrate the fiscal and inflationary consequences of financial liberalization implemented prior to the achievement of fiscal balance

the effects of inflation on economic growth lessons from latin america this paper investigates the relationship between inflation and long run growth it presents an endogenous growth model that illustrates the channels through which inflation affects growth the model highlights the effects of inflation on the productivity of capital and the rate of capital accumulation the reduction in growth is caused by a diversion of resources away from activities that lead to faster rates of growth toward activities associated with reducing the costs of inflation the negative association between inflation and growth is assessed empirically for a sample group of latin american countries this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

teacher quality in public and private schools under a voucher system the case of chile chile is unusual in having long term experience with nationwide school vouchers a key criticism of school voucher systems is that they make it easier for private schools to attract better teachers to the detriment of public schools this paper uses longitudinal data from chile to estimate a discrete choice dynamic programming dcdp model of teacher and nonteacher labor supply decisions and to explore how wage policies affect the composition of the teacher labor force in public and private schools in the model individuals first decide whether to get a teaching degree and then choose annually from among five work home sector alternatives empirical results show that private voucher schools attract better teachers than public schools however the existence of the private voucher sector also draws higher productivity individuals into the teaching profession

financial development and economic growth abstract this paper examines the empirical relationship between long run growth and financial development proxied by the ratio between bank credit to the private sector and gdp we find that this proxy is positively correlated with growth in a large cross country sample but its impact changes across countries and is negative in a panel data for latin america we argue that the latter findings is the result of financial liberalization in a poor regulatory environment our findings also show that the main channel of transmission from financial development to growth is the efficiency rather than the volume of investment

inflation variability and gradualist monetary policy this paper considers the optimal approach to reducing inflation when the cost of inflation is its conditional variability inflation is stochastically related to money growth with unobservable time varying autonomous and induced components a sharp reduction in money growth provides information about the responsiveness of inflation to money but also induces variability as the economy heads into unknown territory gradual policy is always optimal and the model explains why moderate inflation countries adopt a much more gradual money growth reduction than high inflation countries additionally the analysis sheds light on the more general problem of learning with two unobservable parameters

fiscal adjustment and labor market dynamics in an open economy this paper studies the labor market effects of fiscal adjustment in a two sector three good intertemporal framework key features of the model are an informal sector minimum wages unionized labor in the formal economy imperfect labor mobility and public production of intermediate inputs bluxuryq and wait unemployment prevail in equilibrium it is shown that if unions care sufficiently about employment and if the degree of openness is high an increase in the price of government services may reduce unemployment in the steady state a similar result would hold in an efficiency wage setting if the bdisciplinary effectq of unemployment is sufficiently strong d 2004 published by elsevier b v

trade reform aggregate investment and capital flight on credibility and the value of information abstract in this paper we demonstrate that uncertainty about future policy reversals coupled with irreversible investment confers an option value to foreign exchange and may lead to capital flight and a fall in aggregate investment after a trade reform the analysis focuses on the value of information and the credibility of the policy reform the conclusion points to a potential role for international institutions to prevent such problems

inflationary rigidities and orthodox stabilization policies lessons from latin america orthodox stabilization programs in latin american countries have been notoriously unsuccessful in combating inflation despite the imposition of stringent cuts in government deficits in most cases inflation came down only slowly and temporarily with concomitant declines in growth and employment the bolivian program one of the only latin american successes is contrasted with those of argentina brazil chile and mexico the problems of dealing with chronic inflation are compared with those of hyperinflationary countries and the influence of price and wage rigidities expectations and credibility is explored the study shows that fiscal restraint is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success and that sound management of nominal variables the exchange rate and money supply are also necessary the critical role of credibility is linked with price and wage rigidities in the chronic inflation countries whereas the unsuitability of hyperinflation is seen to increase the credibility of and thus the potential for successful stabilization programs

optimal accommodation by strong policymakers under incomplete information abstract this paper examines the optimal behavior of a policymaker who is able to precommit labelled strong when the public entertains the possibility that he is either strong or weak unable to precommit the main result is that in the presence of doubts about their type it is optimal even for strong policymakers to partially accommodate inflationary expectations this contrasts with vickers 1986 who finds that when strength is conceived in terms of the relative concern for employment the strong policymaker inflates less under incomplete than under full information the paper also provides a theory of endogenous announcements

high inflation heterodox stabilization and fiscal policy abstract in 1985 86 argentina bolivia brazil and israel introduced stabilization programs aimed at drastic and immediate reductions in inflation besides traditional fiscal and monetary policies the stabilization packages included a number of heterodox elements such as wage and price freezes exchange rate pegging and deindexation measures this paper delineates the analytical relationship between the traditional and heterodox policies discusses the role and impact of the heterodox policies in the programs and examines in detail the role of traditional fiscal policy when coupled with heterodox policies and applied with the aim of moving quickly from very high to very low inflation

floodplain price impacts by property type in boulder county colorado condominiums versus standalone properties studies find various and often small or negligible impacts of floodplain designation on home sales prices in the united states calling into question the u s s national flood insurance program s nfip effectiveness at internalizing flood risk into the residential property market however studies also tend to focus only on standalone homes although a substantial portion of the u s housing market particularly within designated floodplains consists of condominiums single unit residences that are bundled with an ownership share in common property this study investigates the price impact of floodplain designation for condominiums and for standalone properties in boulder county colorado u s and finds a strong impact for condominiums but none for standalone properties results are consistent across hedonic price estimation and non parametric matching estimation numerous factors may contribute to this difference including differences in the pre transaction provision of flood insurance cost information and whether maintaining ongoing flood insurance is compulsory these results have implications for the nfip and offer insights for policy interventions for internalizing risks more generally they also caution against generalizing from the experience of the nfip without detailed consideration of the contexts and specific conditions in which it is applied

animal spirits investment and international capital movements abstract in the aftermath of the debt crisis developing countries are endeavoring to repatriate flight capital and to resume domestic private investment yet investment and the associated capital inflows continue to be disappointing and highly uneven over time in many cases this paper provides a model of investment and capital movements in and out of such countries central to the paper is the introduction of fiscal increasing returns to domestic capital into a standard dynamic optimizing model the resulting system may display multiple steady states and surprising dynamic behavior initial conditions and expectations both matter in selecting the equilibrium on which the economy converges for some initial conditions animal spirits can determine the course of investment and capital flows a limit cycle may occur around one of the welfare inferior equilibria along that cycle capital stocks and relative prices display endogenous fluctuations

on the credibility of alternative exchange rate regimes abstract most anti inflation plans have used a nominal exchange rate anchor even though many other variables can serve this role the conventional wisdom is that an exchange rate anchor imposes more macroeconomic discipline than other anchors though theory does not yet provide any clear reason why this is so we explain the link between an exchange rate anchor and discipline with a model that assumes that the public can monitor the nominal exchange rate more easily that it can the other variables in our model a barro gordon game of incomplete information with imperfect monitoring we show that serious stabilizers prefer more visible anchors such as the nominal exchange rate we also show that in some circumstances serious stabilizers will choose to fix the exchange rate even when fixed exchange rates have some costs such as diminished capabilities to respond to external shocks

competitive banks and the inflation tax abstract the purpose of this note is to show that the presence of a competitive banking sector has important quantitative implications for the revenue maximizing rate of inflation

comparing the welfare costs and initial dynamics of alternative inflation stabilization policies abstract this paper uses calibrated versions of a sticky price currency substitution model to compare the initial dynamics and welfare costs of three types of stabilization program exchange rate based erb money based mb and money based with initial reliquefication mbr erb and mbr programs are found to induce an initial expansion in real activity whereas mb programs are initially contractionary the welfare gains of eliminating high inflation are significant under permanent erb and mbr programs but small under permanent mb programs in addition temporary mb programs are shown to be much more disruptive than temporary erb or mbr programs these results provide an explanation for why mb programs are so rarely implemented and suggest that empirical studies that fail to distinguish mb from mbr programs are likely to be biased toward finding that stabilizations are always expansionary regardless of the nominal anchor

is growth exogenous evidence from the 1970s and 1980s this article assesses the role of external and policy factors for growth variability the mean group estimator is used to estimate a vector autoregressive system on a panel data set of eighteen developing economies from 1965 to 1992 the main findings are that i temporary external shocks are an important determinant of medium to long run growth variability ii high inflation countries are more vulnerable to external shocks than others this evidence is supportive of the conventional view that macro economic stability is conducive to growth and casts doubts on the idea that the growth process might be largely exogenous

the rocky road to reform trade industrial financial and agricultural strategies abstract this paper reviews recent issues of economic reform in developing countries based on studies undertaken for the world institute for development economics research wider emphasis is placed on a novel 3 gap adjustment model for savings investment trade and fiscal limitations at the macro level and a distinction between allocative and productive efficiency microeconomically issues of stabilization and adjustment and trade industrial policy financial reform privatization market deregulation and the agrarian question are discussed

debt crisis adjustment policies and capital formation in developing countries where do we stand abstract this paper documents the decline in investment rates observed in developing countries after 1982 and explores analytically and empirically the factors contributing to explain it the paper focuses on the impact of macroeconomic adjustment and reform measures on private investment particularly in latin america and east asia and underscores the importance of macroeconomic uncertainty policy credibility and potential coordination failures in shaping the response of investment to the changes in economic incentives brought about by structural reforms the analysis concludes with some policy recommendations to improve the design of sustainable growth oriented adjustment programs

speed of adjustment and self fulfilling failure of economic reform abstract an economic reform programme where inefficient public labour is laid off is considered the immediate effect is a lowering of wages and increased profitability in the private modern sector over time as capital accumulates in the modern sector wages and production increases big bang reform generates a sharp transitory drop in wages while gradual reform gives a more modest decline in the presence of a subsistence wage constraint popular resistance can cause the cancellation of big bang reform two arguments for gradualism can in that case be made first a more gradual reform requires a less abrupt drop in the wage and will therefore be feasible second the initial wage drop will be stronger if a cancellation of reform is expected and since cancellation is dependent on the severity of the initial wage drop multiple equilibria occurs the existence of multiple equilibria is dependent on the speed of reform sufficiently gradual programmes have a unique successful equilibrium

a dynamic model of teacher labor supply the labor supply decisions of certified elementary and high school teachers are examined using data from a general longitudinal survey a significant decrease in the teaching participation rate tak

teacher mobility responses to wage changes evidence from a quasi natural experiment low mobility responses to wage changes imply rents associated with existing employment relationships for example continued employment after a wage cut all else equal reflects rents in the hand of the worker at the outset and symmetrically voluntary quits after a

the influence of classroom characteristics on high school teacher turnover i introduction a number of authors have suggested that the u s will face a shortage of qualified teachers in the near future especially in the areas of math and science 1 school districts facing such a shortage could respond in a variety of ways for instance hiring standards could be lowered teachers could be asked to teach outside their areas of certification or funds permitting starting salaries could be increased in an effort to attract the most promising candidates still another option would be to raise teaching loads i e average class size or the number of classes taught thus making do with fewer teachers this option is particularly alluring in light of the fact that average class size has been falling rapidly in the u s over the last twenty years and yet no strong connection between smaller classes and increased student learning has been established 2 there is however a possible hidden cost that needs to be investigated before recommending such a course of action if teachers respond to larger or more frequent classes by quitting then a district that tries to solve its hiring problems in this fashion could simply be increasing its demand for new teachers this paper uses data from the new york state education department s personnel master file for the years 1979 to 1989 in order to investigate whether an increased teaching load affects the likelihood that a teacher will leave his or her district in order to obtain an unbiased sample of job lengths the sample is restricted to full time high school teachers who were newly hired in 1979 3 we estimate a discrete time hazard model in which teaching load is measured as the average class size taught by an individual the number of classes taught and the proportion of classes taught in the teacher s certified area in interpreting our results we pay special attention to whether the behavior of math and science teachers differs from that of other teachers this is an important issue because shortages of qualified teachers in these two areas are predicted to be especially acute ii background the market for teachers differs from a well functioning neoclassical labor market in that salaries are determined through a political process involving various levels of government the public and often teachers unions 4 if the demand for teachers increases as retirements and student enrollment increase then starting salaries cannot be counted on to quickly move to the market clearing level and thus a shortage of teachers becomes a possibility 5 few observers however believe that there will be an actual shortage of warm bodies the more likely scenario is that there will be a lack of teachers trained in specific areas and of high quality teachers in general see murnane et al 1991 1 2 given a limited budget what are the options available to a school district facing this type of shortage the district could settle for hiring lower quality teachers but this might be seen as an unnecessary measure with long term implications taken in response to what could be a temporary situation another option that has been suggested is to increase teacher workloads 6 whether this option is workable depends in part on the exit decisions of teachers a large number of empirical studies have investigated the determinants of teacher turnover however no work specifically directed toward capturing the effect of increased teaching responsibilities on turnover has been done 7 without knowing whether such an effect exists and what the magnitude of it might be informed policy decisions at the district level in response to a shortage of qualified teachers becomes impossible past studies have shown that the probability of a teacher leaving his or her job is high in the first few years after entering the profession falls after the third year 8 and again increases as the teacher nears retirement age murnane et al

environmental externalities and residential property values externalized costs along the house price distribution this study examines the impacts of animal agricultural facilities on the value of residential housing through a quantile regression framework we are able to show that the estimated price impacts are not uniform across the distribution of housing prices and a statistically significant relationship exists only for houses at or above median price levels these estimated price impacts also increase as the percentile increases for comparison the model also includes the proximity to three other waste facility types industrial solid and septic our dataset features 14 785 single family residential transactions in tippecanoe county indiana over the period 1993 2006 jel q51

inflationary consequences of anticipated macroeconomic policies budget deficits implying an unbounded present value of government debt are infeasible and hence induce expectations of a future policy change we study how expectations of a policy switch whose timing or mix between expenditure cuts tax increases or increases in money growth rates may be uncertain affect economic dynamics before the switch takes place we are especially concerned with the correlation between changes in the deficit and inflation of particular interest is our finding that timing uncertainty may induce fluctuations in the rate of inflation that seem to be unrelated to the budget deficit at a time when the budget deficit is responsible for inflation

the collapse of the mexican peso what have we learned the collapse of the mexican peso what have we learned in the first quarter of 1995 mexico found itself in the grip of an intense financial panic foreign investors fled the country despite very high interest rates an undervalued currency and financial indicators that pointed to long term solvency the fundamental conditions of the mexican economy cannot account for the extent of the crisis the crisis was not the result of irresponsible fiscal behaviour the crisis was due to unexpected shocks that occurred in 1994 the inadequate policy response to those shocks the increased vulnerability to panic and finally panic itself in the aftermath of the march assassination the exchange rate experienced a nominal devaluation of around 10 and interest rates increased by 7 percentage points however capital outflows continued the policy response was to maintain the exchange rate rule and to prevent further increases in interest rates interest rates were held down by expanding domestic credit and by converting short term peso denominated government liabilities cetes falling due into dollar denominated bonds tesobonos a fall in international reserves and an increase in short term dollar denominated debt resulted the government simply ended up illiquid and therefore financially vulnerable illiquidity exposed mexico to a self fulfilling panic jeffrey sachs aaron tornell and andres velasco

recruiting and retaining teachers in the uk an analysis of graduate occupation choice from the 1960s to the 1990s this paper examines the market for teachers in the uk from 1960 to 2002 using six graduate cohort data sets we find that while there is no strong evidence that teachers are underpaid the relative wages in teaching compared with alternative professions have a significant impact on the likelihood of graduates choosing to teach this wage effect is strongest at times of low relative teachers wages or following a period of decline in those wages it is also strongest for those individuals who have more recently graduated and for men

inflation in argentina stop and go since the austral plan the austral plan launched in 1985 was argentina s most recent stabilization strategy for reducing high inflation a heterodox program it combined orthodox components tight fiscal policy and monetary restraint with less conventional wage and price controls the austral plan failed to bring inflation down on a sustained basis but it provided useful lessons about the design of heterodox stabilization programs the difficulties of sustaining this type of effort and the consequences of failure

what explains the success or failure of structural adjustment programs in the 1980s development assistance shifted largely from financing investments such as roads and dams to promoting policy reform this change came because of a growing awareness that developing countries were held back more by poor policies than by a lack of finance for investment after nearly 20 years experience with policy based or conditional lending there have now been many studies of adjustment lending most of which take a case study approach many conclude that policy based lending works if countries have decided on their own to reform the authors examine a database of 220 world bank supported reform programs to identify why adjustment programs succeed or fail they find that a few political economy variables can successfully predict the outcome of an adjustment loan 75 percent of the time variables under the world bank s control resources devoted to preparation and supervision or number of conditions have no relationship with an adjustment program s success or failure what development agencies must do then is select promising candidates for adjustment support when the candidates is a poor selection devoting more administrative resources or imposing more conditions will not increase the likelihood of successful reform to improve its success rate with adjustment lending the world bank must become more selective and do a better job of understanding which environments are promising for reform and which are not that is likely to lead to fewer adjustment loans unless there is a significant change in the number of promising reformers to become more effective at supporting policy reform the agency must be willing to accept that this may lead to smaller volumes of lending

compensation policies and teacher decisions a dynamic discrete choice framework with a flexible structure for unobserved heterogeneity is used to model the occupational decisions of individuals who are certified to teach in elementary and secondary schools the model is estimated using data from the national longitudinal study of the high school class of 1972 and is used to examine the effects of possible changes in the compensation policy for teachers

high real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation is it a lack of credibility abstract high real interest rates have been observed in many countries for several months after the adoption of disinflation programs while they may reflect primarily a liquidity crunch high ex post real interest rates can also be explained in terms of an ex post error in inflation expectations that reflects a lack of credibility of the low inflation policy the latter hypothesis is tested using data for argentina israel and mexico during the implementation of the stabilization programs in the mid 1980s

public sector price increases credibility and welfare abstract this paper examines the dynamics of inflation and unemployment when the government increases public sector prices and wage indexation prevents the labor market from clearing in the short run credible reforms are virtually certain to be immediately deflationary and welfare improving even when the labor market clears very slowly temporary price increases however usually produce higher inflation after a short period of time and often reduce welfare when higher inflation provokes the government to reverse the reform there exist multiple self fulfilling equilibria

capital repartriation and the waiting game abstract a stylized fact on post stabilization economies is that getting the fundamentals right even though necessary is not sufficient to ensure a prompt and costless resumption of growth uncertainty whether stabilization can in fact be sustained confers an option value to postponing investment in domestic real assets

exchange rate based stabilisation durables consumption and the stylised facts in this article we show that a model featuring durable consumer goods imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign assets and weak credibility can explain the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the stylised facts associated with exchange rate based stabilisation including the tremendous increase in real interest rates following a temporary reduction in the crawl total consumption spending rises 14 26 the real exchange rate appreciates 20 37 and the current account deficit swells to 10 15 of gross domestic product despite large capital inflows the real interest rate increases from 10 to 20 100