income dispersion and counter cyclical markups recent advances in measuring cyclical changes in the income distribution raise new questions how might these distributional changes affect the business cycle itself we show how counter cyclical income dispersion can generate counter cyclical markups in the goods market without any preference shocks or price setting frictions in recessions idiosyncratic labor productivity shocks raise income dispersion lower the price elasticity of demand and increase imperfectly competitive firms optimal markups the calibrated model explains not only many cyclical features of markups but also cyclical and long run patterns of standard business cycle aggregates

the inexorable and mysterious tradeoff between inflation and unemployment this paper discusses the short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment although this tradeoff remains a necessary building block of business cycle theory economists have yet to provide a completely satisfactory explanation for it according to the consensus view among central bankers and monetary economists a contractionary monetary shock raises unemployment at least temporarily and leads to a delayed and gradual fall in inflation standard dynamic models of price adjustment however cannot explain this pattern of responses reconciling the consensus view about the effects of monetary policy with models of price adjustment remains an outstanding puzzle for business cycle theorists several years ago i gave myself a peculiar assignment i decided to try to summarise all of economics in ten simply stated principles the purpose of this task was to introduce students to the economic way of thinking in the first chapter of my textbook principles of economics i figured if god could boil all of moral philosophy down to ten commandments i should be able to do much the same with economic science most of the ten principles i chose were microeconomic and hard to argue with they involved the importance of tradeoffs marginal analysis the benefits of trade market efficiency market failure and so on i allocated the last three principles to macroeconomics the first of these was a country s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services which i viewed as the foundation of all growth theory the second was prices rise when the government prints too much money which i took to be the essence of classical monetary theory the last of my ten principles is the subject of today s lecture society faces a short run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment perhaps not surprisingly this statement turned out to be controversial when my publisher sent out the manuscript for review a few readers objected

the environment and welfare implications of trade and tax policy developing countries with comparative advantage in dirty industries face the risk of environmental degradation unless appropriate policies are implemented using applied general equilibrium analysis we examine how trade influences the environment and assess the welfare and environmental implications of alternative pollution abatement policies for indonesia our results indicate that unilateral trade liberalization by indonesia would increase the ratio of emission levels to real output for almost all major pollution categories more importantly when tariff removal is combined with a cost effective tax policy the twin objectives of welfare enhancement and environmental quality improvement appear to be feasible this sheds new and positive light on the role of trade in sustainable development

pricing in a customer market in standard pricing models movements in demand are partially offset by price responses in a customer market however price markups may decrease with high demand thus price may magnify rather than stabilize demand movements i consider a monopolist selling a good of which first time consumers are uncertain repeat customers know that the product works the monopolist trades the objectives of exploiting past customers and attracting new ones in a period with many new potential customers the monopolist gives more weight to attracting and lowers its markup last i examine some evidence on whether expansions are periods with disproportionately many new customers

state dependent pricing and the dynamics of money and output standard macroeconomic models of price stickiness assume that each firm leaves its price unchanged for a fixed amount of time we present an alternative model in which the pricing decision depends on the state of the economy we find a method of aggregating individual price changes that allows a simple characterization of macroeconomic variables the model produces a positive money output correlation and an empirical phillips curve in addition the impact of monetary shocks depends crucially on the current level of output which points to a natural connection between state dependent microeconomics and state dependent macroeconomics i introduction there is a long tradition in macroeconomics of attributing the real effects of nominal demand shocks to nominal price stickiness in this view if there is no change in prices when nominal demand rises then quantities must bear the burden of adjustment hence nominal price rigidity provides the friction needed for nominal demand shocks to be transmitted to the real economy standard models of this transmission mechanism such as fischer 1977 and taylor 1980 are based on the assumption that each firm leaves its price unchanged for a fixed amount of time the main reason for considering such time dependent pricing rules is their analytic tractability constraining firms to adjust their prices at prespecified times both simplifies the derivation of equilibrium strategies and allows the use of powerful time series techniques to analyze aggregate dynamics the main disadvantage of the timedependent approach is that between price adjustments firms are not allowed to respond even to extreme changes of circumstance this makes it difficult to know whether the qualitative effects of money in these models are the result of nominal rigidities per se or of the exogenously imposed pattern of price changes an alternative approach to modeling price stickiness is to allow the price setting decision to depend on the actual state of the

real rigidities and the non neutrality of money rigidities in real prices are not sufficient to create rigidities in nominal prices and real effects of nominal shocks and by themselves small frictions in nominal adjustment such as costs of changing prices create only small non neutralities but this paper shows that substantial nominal rigidity can arise from a combination of real rigidities and small nominal frictions the paper shows the connection between real and nominal rigidity given the presence of nominal frictions both in general and for two specific sources of real rigidity one arising from goods market imperfections and the other from labour market imperfections

tariff policy income distribution and long run structural adjustment in a dual economy a numerical analysis in this paper we examine the effects of unilateral tariff reduction in a dual economy kenya using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model the major differences from past research are that tariffs are distinguished by end use of the imports and income distribution effects are analysed extensively without relying on either increasing returns to scale or perfect substitutability between domestic and imported goods the aggregate results are much stronger than in previous studies especially if tariff reduction is restricted to intermediate goods only the income distribution effects are regressive as the poorer classes do not consume imported goods or use them in production however after 9 or 10 years the trickle down effect starts to take effect

implications of state dependent pricing for dynamic macroeconomic models abstract state dependent pricing sdp models treat the timing of price changes as a profit maximizing choice symmetrically with other decisions of firms using quantitative general equilibrium models which incorporate a generalized s s approach we investigate the implications of sdp for topics in two major areas of macroeconomic research the early 1990s sdp literature and more recent work on persistence mechanisms first we show that state dependent pricing leads to unusual macroeconomic dynamics which occur because of the timing of price adjustments chosen by firms as in the earlier literature in particular we display an example in which output responses peak at about a year while inflation responses peak at about 2 years after the shock second we examine whether the persistence enhancing effects of two new keynesian model features namely specific factor markets and variable elasticity demand curves depend importantly on whether pricing is state dependent in an sdp setting we provide examples in which specific factor markets perversely work to lower persistence while variable elasticity demand raises it

do momentum based strategies still work in foreign currency markets this paper examines the performance of momentum trading strategies in foreign exchange markets we find the well documented profitability of momentum strategies during the 1970s and the 1980s has continued throughout the 1990s our approach and findings are insensitive to the specification of the trading rule and the base currency for analysis finally we show that the performance is not due to a time varying risk premium but rather depends on the underlying autocorrelation structure of the currency returns in sum the results lend further support to prior momentum studies on equities the profitability to momentum based strategies holds for currencies as well

effects of carbon taxes in an economy with prior tax distortions an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper analyzes the costs of carbon taxes in a model that recognizes interactions between this tax and pre existing taxes first we examine the extent to which costs of a u s carbon tax are reduced when its revenues finance cuts in income taxes such use of revenues significantly reduces but does not eliminate the overall policy costs the positive overall costs reflect the carbon tax s focus on intermediate inputs and its relatively narrow base in comparison with income taxes we also examine the sensitivity of the carbon tax s costs to the level of pre existing taxes for any given use of revenues welfare costs rise significantly with pre existing tax rates indicating that models disregarding pre existing taxes may substantially understate the costs of new environmental tax initiatives

menu costs and phillips curves this paper develops a model of a monetary economy in which individual firms are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks as well as general inflation sellers can change price only by incurring a real menu cost we calibrate this cost and the variance and autocorrelation of the idiosyncratic shock using a new u s data set of individual prices due to klenow and kryvtsov the prediction of the calibrated model for the effects of high inflation on the frequency of price changes accords well with international evidence from various studies the model is also used to conduct numerical experiments on the economy s response to various shocks in none of the simulations we conducted did monetary shocks induce large or persistent real responses

demand for india s manufactured exports abstract surprisingly few estimates exist of disaggregated world demand functions for ldc exports despite the obvious policy importance of the inherent price elasticities time series simultaneous equation estimates are herein presented of world demand for 23 categories of manufactured exports from india tests for homotheticity separability whether price elasticity of demand differs during world recession and for effects of foreign learning about india s exports are reported estimated price elasticities range from below unity to infinity revealing important variations masked by aggregate studies these results raise considerable doubts about policy design from a uniform small country assumption

the significance of technical trading rule profits in the foreign exchange market a bootstrap approach abstract in this paper we present new evidence on the profitability and statistical significance of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market we utilize a new data base currency futures contracts for the period 1976 1990 and we implement a new testing procedure based on bootstrap methodology our results suggest that simple technical trading rules have very often led to profits that are highly unusual splitting the entire sample period into three 5 year periods reveals that on average the profitability of some trading rules declined in the latest period although profits remained positive on average and significant in many cases jel f31 f47 g15

the public finance of a protective tariff the case of an oil import fee recent debate has focused on the desirability of imposing an oil import fee or some broader tax on oil consumption in order to finance tax reform or for some other purposes optimal taxation requires that the government raise revenue using the tax instrument with the lowest efficiency cost per dollar of additional revenue a highly stylized but conventional general equilibrium model is used to evaluate the magnitude of this marginal efficiency cost for taxes on oil imports oil consumption and as a reference for comparison labor income

a valuation approach to currency hedging 1994 a valuation approach to currency hedging financial analysts journal vol 50 no 2 pp 55 59

trade reform in the partially liberalized economy of turkey recent reforms in trade policy in turkey have produced a foreign trade regime that exhibits very little antiexport bias on average a quantitative multisectoral general equilibrium model of the turkish economy shows that piecemeal trade policy reform based on first best rationales that are appropriate for highly distorted economies would not now be appropriate further tariff reductions must be coordinated with export subsidy reductions to attain significant welfare benefits the dispersion of distortions especially export subsidies is more important than their level a policy of harmonizing tariffs to the common external tariff of the european community has virtually no effect on welfare

assessing trade and welfare effects of trade liberalization abstract several numerical model experiments are used to contrast computable general equilibrium cge models explicitly incorporating imperfect competition with on the one hand textbook comparative advantage models and on the other hand competitive models based on the armington approach imperfect competition has significant effects on inter industry trade and welfare effects of trade liberalization less aggressive competition reduces elasticities of equilibrium quantities so that comparative advantage is not fully exploited the armington approximation is found to be a poor substitute for explicit incorporation of oligopolistic interaction and product differentiation at the firm level

production chains and general equilibrium aggregate dynamics abstract recent empirical studies reveal that monetary shocks can cause persistent fluctuations in aggregate output in this paper we propose a mechanism to help generate such persistence our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a vertical input output structure with staggered price contracts at each stage of production working through the input output relations and the timing of firms pricing decisions the model generates persistent fluctuations in aggregate output and the observed patterns of price dynamics following a monetary shock output responses are more persistent the greater the number of stages of production and the larger the share of intermediate inputs with a sufficient number of stages the persistence is arbitrarily large if the share of intermediate inputs is one at all but finitely many stages

monopolistic competition business cycles and the composition of aggregate demand abstract we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with monopolistically competitive firms and endogenous markups and show the possibility of equilibria with persistent fluctuations driven by self fulfilling revisions of expectations for some parameter values such fluctuations are characterized by time series properties similar to those observed in u s postwar business cycles in contrast with the existing literature our results do not rely on the presence of increasing returns or nominal rigidities a key ingredient of the model is the link between markups and the composition of aggregate demand some econometric evidence on the latter is also reported journal of economic literature classification number d43 d58 e32

agricultural trade liberalization growth welfare and large country effects abstract the impacts of trade liberalization for india have been examined with an applied general equilibrium model with nine agricultural sectors one non tradeable nonagriculture sector and one tradeable nonagriculture sector and with five rural and five urban expenditure classes different scenarios are generated using the model since comparison of gdp in two alternative scenarios can be misleading the policy alternatives are assessed on the basis of their impact on welfare in terms of equivalent incomes of different expenditure classes a policy is assessed preferable only when the distribution of welfare is found to be preferable in a well defined way it demonstrates the importance of accounting for large country effects in rice trade and estimates the welfare optimal tariff quota for rice exports for india which is shown to be just half a million tons of net export of rice the results also show that nonagricultural trade liberalization is even more important for agriculture than even agricultural trade liberalization both of which help accelerate growth

from the static to the dynamic some problems in the theory of taxation abstract this paper considers problems and issues that arise when we attempt to extend the static theory of taxation and production planning to a dynamic context and to combine that theory with theories of growth the reasons dynamic theory is less developed include problems with the analytical tractability of even those dynamic models which attempt to retain the basic structure of the static model furthermore difficult and interesting issues arise in a dynamic context which are either not present or are much less severe in the static theory special attention is paid to these new issues and the difficulties they pose

joint trade liberalization and tax reform in a small open economy the case of egypt abstract we develop a cge model of the egyptian economy to analyze the impact of various trade liberalization scenarios allowing distortionary domestic taxes to vary endogenously in order to satisfy a fixed real government revenue target we decompose computed welfare gains into effects from tax reform trade reform and their interaction scenarios include removal or unification of the consumption tax capital tax or both and tariff unification a free trade agreement with the european union and unilateral tariff elimination welfare effects depend critically on the type of revenue replacement tax while both are important neither trade policy reform nor tax reform dominates

dynamic s s economies in this paper the authors provide a framework to study the aggregate dynamic behavior of an economy where individual units follow s s policies and are subject to aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks they characterize structural and stochastic heterogeneities that ensure convergence of the economy s aggregate to that of its stochastic frictionless counterpart determine the speed at which convergence takes place and describe the transitional dynamics of this economy they study the evolution of the economy s aggregate and the evolution of the difference between this aggregate and that of the difference between this aggregate and that of an economy without microeconomic friction where the latter pertains to a situation where individual units adjust with no delay to all shocks copyright 1991 by the econometric society

anomalies foreign exchange most all behavior can be explained by assuming that agents have stable well defined preferences and make rational choices consistent with those preferences in markets that eventually clear an empirical result qualifies as an anomaly if it is difficult to rationalize or if implausible assumptions are necessary to explain it within the paradigm this column will present a series of such anomalies readers are invited to suggest topics for future columns by sending a note with some reference to or better yet copies of the relevant research comments on anomalies printed here are also welcome the address

the theory of reform and indian indirect taxes abstract given a set of value judgements an initial state and a model of the economy one can ask whether some feasible tax change would increase welfare we do this by defining the marginal cost in terms of welfare of raising an extra rupee from the i th good the inverse optimum problem is the calculation of non negative welfare weights on households which imply that the initial state is optimum if no such welfare weights exist then a pareto improvement is possible we illustrate the concepts and results using data from the indian economy for 1979 1980 directions of tax reform for a number of specific social welfare functions and for pareto improvements are presented

the real thing nominal price rigidity of the nickel coke 1886 1959 we report that the price of a 6 5 oz coca cola was 5c from 1886 until 1959 thus we are documenting a nominal price rigidity that lasted more than 70 years the case of coca cola is particularly interesting because during the 70 year period there were substantial changes in the soft drink industry as well as two world wars the great depression and numerous regulatory interventions and lawsuits which led to substantial changes in the coca cola market conditions the nickel price of coke nevertheless remained unchanged we find that this unusual rigidity is best explained by 1 a contract between the company and its parent bottlers that encouraged retail price maintenance 2 a single coin vending machine technology which limited the company s price adjustment options due to limited availability and unreliability of the existing flexible price adjustment technologies and 3 a single coin monetary transaction technology which limited the company s price adjustment options due to the customer inconvenience cost we show that these price adjustment costs are of a different nature than the standard menu cost and their estimates exceed the existing estimates by an order of magnitude a possible broader relevance of the nickel coke phenomenon is discussed in the context of nickel and dime stores which were popular in the us in the late 1800s and the early 1900s

the relation between price and marginal cost in u s industry an examination of data on output and labor input reveals that some u s industries have marginal cost well below price the conclusion rests on the finding that cyclical variations in labor input are small compared with variations in output in booms firms produce substantially more output and sell it for a price that exceeds the costs of the added inputs the paper documents the disparity between price and marginal cost where marginal cost is estimated from annual variations in cost it considers a variety of explanations of the findings that are consistent with competition but none is found to be completely plausible

a global stock and bond model six fundamental risk factors four for stocks and two for bonds explain most of the common volatility of individual stocks and bonds worldwide some of the risk factors have a strong international component and others are more purely national the cross national component of the risk factors tends to be stronger within the european union than worldwide the model proposed in this article can be used for integration of worldwide asset selection and asset allocation decisions

the cyclical behavior of marginal cost and price the author examines the cyclical behavior of price marginal cost margins for u s manufac turing after 1956 short run marginal cost is markedly procyclical this is primarily due to procyclical overtime payments incurred beca use employment is not perfectly flexible in most industries output price fails to respond to the cyclical movement in marginal cost so price marginal cost margins are markedly countercyclical the res ults contradict business cycle theories that explain low production i n a recession by a high real cost of producing they support theories that explain low production in a recession by the inability of firms to sell their output copyright 1987 by american economic association

intermediate goods and business cycles implications for productivity and welfare this paper presents an aggregate demand driven model of business cycles that provides a new explanation for the procyclicality of productivity and simultaneously predicts large welfare losses from monetary nonneutrality the key features of the model are an input output production structure imperfect competition countercyclical markups and for some results state dependent price rigidity true technical efficiency is procyclical even though production takes place with constant returns without technology shocks or technological externalities the paper has observable implications that distinguish it empirically from related work these implications are generally supported by data from u s manufacturing industries copyright 1995 by american economic association

the currency hedging decision a search for synthesis in asset allocation many asset allocation and liability management decisions are controversial but the decision that frequently generates the most debate is the currency hedging decision strong feelings on currency exposure policy are usually based on the conviction that currency exposures should be determined by a simple mechanical process but not everyone advocates the same process a survey of the leading proposals to simplify the currency management process suggests that a baseline currency policy may lend itself to some mechanical rules but the rules are more complex than any of the widely advocated currency hedging policies suggest equity and fixed income managers as well as asset allocators will find currency issues easier to understand if they view currencies as they would view any other financial instrument the importance of currency management is clearer if a manager and client start from a 50 50 hedged unhedged currency benchmark and if currency and money market returns are combined the combination of currency and money market returns strips primary currency movements from stock and bond returns clarifying intermarket correlations and creating synthetic stock and bond futures portfolios no one can harbor illusions that this study or any similar effort can completely eliminate currency hedging controversies the argument has gone on too long and too many positions are ossified nonetheless most practitioners can understand the strengths and weaknesses of the various currency hedging viewpoints and the assumptions behind them can be evaluated dispassionately this dispassionate evaluation leads to a baseline currency policy but not to a rigid prescription for currency hedging designed to satisfy the demand for a simple rule the policy suggests an approach that can help a manager measure the cost or risk of a specific currency com

a survey of new keynesian theories of aggregate supply and their relation to industrial organization i survey the recent literature on the phillips curve along the way i will try to relate this literature to topics of interest to industrial organization i will also point out the gaps in our understanding and places where more careful micro economic analysis would be helpful to macroeconomists in the conclusion i summarize what an industrial organization economist might take away from this literature

explaining the volume of north south trade much of the recent literature on scale economies has been motivated by the large volume of trade among the industrialized countries relative to north south trade this paper presents theoretical and empirical analyses of two alternative hypotheses one based on differences in north versus south gnp and one based on higher protection levels in the south counter factual experiments using a numerical general equilibrium model support the hypotheses that north south trade is relatively small because the south is poor and highly protected copyright 1990 by royal economic society

aggregation and optimization with state dependent pricing the literature on the aggregation of s s policies has ignored the impact of aggregate behavior on the individual s optimization problem in the case of pricing the feedback effects are clear not only do pricing strategies determine the evolution of the price level but the evolution of the price level also influences the optimal pricing strategies in this paper we provide a consistent treatment of aggregation and optimization we use this model to analyze three issues in the menu cost pricing literature the relationship between strategic complementarity and the real effects of money the relationship between the variance of the money supply and the correlation between money and output and the relationship between the cost of price adjustment and the size of price adjustment questions concerning the dynamics of aggregate variables such as prices employment investment and consumption represent the core of business cycle analysis one striking feature of these variables is the radical difference between properties of these aggregates and the nature of the individual behavior that underlies them the behavior of a firm s prices investment and employment and the behavior of an individual s consumption all involve frictional elements that lead to discrete adjustment at the microeconomic level heterogeneity among individuals however tends to smooth the behavior of the corresponding aggregates in recent years a large body of research has developed to examine the manner in which microeconomic frictions influence aggregate dynamics one of the centerpieces of this research has been the s s model developed by arrow harris and marschak 1951 the key element of this model is the state dependence of individual decisions agents act when a state variable crosses some critical threshold which balances the cost and benefits of adjustment the aggregate implications of this form of microeconomic behavior have been analyzed by blinder 1981 caplin 1985 and mosser 1991 in the context of inventory dynamics by caplin and spulber 1987 caballero and engel 1991 1993 and caplin and leahy 1991 in the context of prices and by bertola and caballero 1990 caballero 1993 and eberly 1994 in the context of con sumer durables one of the most limiting aspects of these models is that they focus exclusively on the impact that microeconomic inertia has on aggregate dynamics they 1we would like to thank michael harrison loannis karatzas john leahy sr andreu mas colell a co editor and four anonymous referees for helpful discussions and comments and the national science foundation and the sloan foundation for financial support

robust option pricing abstract in this paper we combine robust optimization and the idea of arbitrage to propose a tractable approach to price a wide variety of options rather than assuming a probabilistic model for the stock price dynamics we assume that the conclusions of probability theory such as the central limit theorem hold deterministically on the underlying returns this gives rise to an uncertainty set that the underlying asset returns satisfy we then formulate the option pricing problem as a robust optimization problem that identifies the portfolio which minimizes the worst case replication error for a given uncertainty set defined on the underlying asset returns the most significant benefits of our approach are a computational tractability illustrated by our ability to price multi asset american and asian options using linear optimization and thus the computational complexity of our approach scales polynomially with the number of assets and with time to expiry and b modeling flexibility illustrated by our ability to model different kinds of options various levels of risk aversion among investors transaction costs shorting constraints and replication via option portfolios

trend inflation indexation and inflation persistence in the new keynesian phillips curve purely forward looking versions of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc generate too little inflation persistence some authors add ad hoc backward looking terms to address this shortcoming we hypothesize that inflation per sistence results mainly from variation in the long run trend component of inflation which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy we derive a version of the nkpc that incorporates a time varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflation when drift in trend inflation is taken into account a purely forward looking version of the model fits the data well and there is no need for backward looking components jel e12 e31 e52 in this paper we consider the extent to which guillermo calvo s 1983 model of nominal price rigidities can explain inflation dynamics without relying on arbitrary backward looking terms in its baseline formulation the calvo model leads to a purely forward looking new keynesian

risk and household grain management in developing countries a dynamic model is presented of a household s joint production storage and trade decisions when facing transaction costs and risk in prices and yields grain management decisions balance the goals of maximising profits and reducing consumption price risk model solutions calibrated to chinese data show that grain s consumption role makes it an attractive form of precautionary saving even when households have access to credit the joint nature of production and savings decisions limits the income loss associated with risk coping and the desire to store grain can explain why subsistence households are frequently net purchasers but rarely net sellers of grain

on inflation and output with costly price changes a simple unifying result this paper determines the real effects of credible disinflation when price setting is staggered the results are surprising a fairly quick disinflation causes a boom this finding suggests that nominal price rigidity alone does not explain why disinflation is costly in actual economies this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

universal hedging optimizing currency risk and reward in international equity portfolios investors can increase their returns by holding foreign stocks in addition to domestic ones they can also gain by taking the appropriate amount of exchange risk but what amount is appropriate assume that investors see the world in light of their own consumption goods and count both risk and expected return when figuring their optimum hedges assume that they share common views on stocks and currencies and that markets are liquid and there are no barriers to international investing in this perfect world it is possible to derive a formula for the optimal hedge ratio this formula requires three basic inputs the average across countries of the expected returns on the world market portfolio the average across countries of the volatility of the world market portfolio and the average across all pairs of countries of exchange rate volatility these values can be estimated from historical data the formula in turn gives the circumstances for three rules 1 hedge foreign equity 2 hedge less than 100

interactions between trade policies and domestic distortions in a small open developing country abstract this paper reports results from a price taking open economy numerical general equilibrium model of the philippines whose purpose is to explore the ways in which trade policies and other domestic distortions interact in a small open developing economy the trade policies featured in the model include tariffs export taxes and import quotas while the domestic distortions considered are rent seeking and harris todaro labour market dualism results clearly indicate that interactions between trade policies and other domestic distortions are significant and need to be more fully considered in numerical economic policy analyses for developing countries

integrated dynamic models for hedging international portfolio risks abstract we develop scenario based stochastic programming models for hedging the risks of international portfolios using options the models provide increasing level of integration in managing market and foreign exchange fx risks we start with a single stage model with currency options for selective hedging of fx risks while market risk is addressed through diversification we add stock options to hedge market risks and add quantos and currency options to develop an integrated model using an innovative method to price quantos on the scenario tree underpinning the stochastic program the models are extended to multi stage settings backtesting on market data over a 14 year period that includes the global financial crisis of 2008 we demonstrate the effectiveness of taking increasingly integrated views of risk management simultaneous hedging of market and fx risks using stock and currency options has the best ex post performance the differences are economically significant and statistical significance is established through rigorous hypothesis testing the models are particularly effective during the crisis test results show that two stage models outperform their single stage counterparts regardless of the hedging strategy

tariff design and reform in a revenue constrained economy theory and an illustration from india abstract this paper develops the theory of design and reform of protective tariffs in a revenue constrained small open economy characterized by learning by doing it shows that revenue raising requires wedges between consumer prices and shadow prices while protection when typically not achievable via subsidies directly targeted towards factor market distortions requires wedges between producer prices and shadow prices illustrative calculations in a modestly disaggregated general equilibrium model of india support the view that uniformity in protective tariffs is likely to be a reasonably good policy in situations where the government intends no discrimination within the sectors already identified for special treatment

information about bank risk in options prices abstract the volatility of its share price reflects the volatility of the market value of a bank s assets we present data for the volatilities of individual banks shares that are implied by the prices of options on the banks shares we present evidence that implied volatilities iv s better forecast actual future volatilities of share prices than historical volatilities do banks iv s are correlated with marketwide volatility with the levels of their own share prices with their own subordinated debt yield spreads and with other banks iv s bank capital reduces the response of iv s to market volatility iv s are likely to add information about bank risk that is timely cheap objective and useful