euro depreciation and trade asymmetries between germany and italy versus the us industry level estimates abstractsince april 2014 to march 2015 the european central bank expansionary monetary policy instigates a huge depreciation of the euro in terms of dollar according to the mainstream monetary theory these dynamics should make the exports cheaper and at the same time make the imports more expensive has real depreciation of the euro helped in the improvement of european countries trade balances following the main methodologies in the recent literature our study analyses the effects of this depreciation both for italy and germany towards the us we use industry level data at monthly frequency the results are different from each bilateral relationship we find that 11 industries register a long run improvement 8 for italy and 3 for germany the j curve effect is proven just in six cases always for italy the inverted j curve effect is proven in eight cases four for germany and four for italy these results seem to be an indirect demonstration of the structural asymmetries between german and ital

price and trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations and the design of policy coordination abstract we analyze a two country zone facing a joint inflationary shock and responding with coordinated and uncoordinated monetary and fiscal policies we show that the standard presumption that the absence of coordination results in an excessive exchange rate appreciation of the zone with respect to the rest of the world hinges on a specific assumption within the two countries considered the price effect of exchange rate fluctuations dominates the trade effects relative to the corresponding effects via a vis the rest of the world if the relative hierarchy goes the other way around as we argue is likely for ec countries the standard conclusion is reversed a result of insufficiently active monetary and fiscal policies the paper also considers asymmetric shocks as well as monetary policy coordination

the j curve effect and the u s agricultural trade balance according to the j curve theory following a currency depreciation there will be an initial deterioration of the trade balance before an improvement is realized this paper finds empirical evidence indicating the first segment of the j curve does exist for the u s agricultural trade balance a 10 depreciation of the u s dollar is estimated to lead a deterioration of the agricultural trade balance that will last for about nine months

global value chain and its impact on the linkage between exchange rate and export cases of china japan and korea the link between exchange rate and trade has been studied for a long time but there is no consensus about their relation this paper tests the old argument whether depreciation of real effective exchange rates reers raises exports we differentiate the test with earlier studies by employing a new measurement of reer and incorporating the effect of gvcs we measured reer at industry level with value added trade weights we analysed the topic with lsdv and system gmm for china japan and korea since these counties are known to participate actively in gvcs our main finding is that exchange rate has significant impact on trade for three countries however the movement of elasticity of export to reer varies by country while the elasticity in china decreased over time korea and japan experienced increasing patterns between mid 1990s and mid 2000s and decreasing trends afterwards this study also tests whether the level of incorporation in gvcs causes a change in elasticity the results show that growing participation in gvcs lowers the elasticity of export to reer in absolute value however this result is only statistically significant in korea

monetary shocks the exchange rate and the trade balance abstract this paper investigates the response of the exchange rate and the trade balance to monetary policy innovations for the us economy during the period 1973 01 1993 12 the empirical findings indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to transitory appreciations of the real and the nominal exchange rate exchange rate appreciations that are caused by a temporary contractionary shock to monetary policy are correlated with a short lived improvement in the trade balance which is then followed by a deterioration giving support to the j curve hypothesis

globalization and competitive strategy in europe s vulnerable regions firm industry and country effects in labour intensive industries clark g l palaskas t tracey p and tsampra m 2004 globalization and competitive strategy in europe s vulnerable regions firm industry and country effects in labour intensive industries regional studies38 1077 1092 european integration has prompted great interest in the adjustment capacities of small and medium enterprises in regions characterized by high levels of unemployment and lower than average incomes at issue in these circumstances is the extent to which economic competitiveness can be enhanced by technological change and the resources of european and national governments relying upon the results of a detailed survey of small and medium sized firm competitive strategies in selected vulnerable regions across europe the paper focuses upon firm adjustment strategies in four labour intensive industries vulnerable to international competition it draws together the results of these surveys providing econometric and statistical analyses that demonstrate the commonalities and difference

flexible exchange rates and the j curve an alternative approach abstract estimates of the j curve that do not explicitly account for feedback effects may give misleading results in the absence of a structural model a var approach is recommended to solve this problem

the j curve in the emerging economies of eastern europe devaluation or depreciation of a currency worsens the trade balance before improving it resulting in a j curve pattern a new definition of the hypothesis implies a short run deterioration combined with the long run improvement by using monthly data over the january 1990 june 2005 period from 11 east european emerging economies most of which are the new european union eu members or the eu candidate countries this article uses the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modelling and finds empirical support for the j curve hypothesis in three countries of bulgaria croatia and russia the results have important implications for policymakers involved in economics in terms of using exchange rate policy as a policy device to achieve real convergence toward eu standards

taiwan s trade imbalance and exchange rate revisited this article applies the recently developed econometric method of autoregressive distributed lag ardl model to re examine the relationship between the exchange rate and bilateral trade imbalance for taiwan and its several trading partners china hong kong the us japan south korea and malaysia the implication of this issue is critical to policy makers particularly after china and taiwan joined the world trade organization wto in late 2001 and early 2002 respectively the empirical evidence shows a stable long run relationship of bilateral trade balance and real exchange rate between taiwan and its trading partners except japan other findings indicate that except for the us there is no specific pattern supporting the j curve phenomenon for these trading partners

insignificant and inconsequential hysteresis the case of the u s bilateral trade this paper casts doubt on the validity of the hysteresis hypothesis as an explanation of the persistent u s trade deficits in the 1980s the authors propose two tests to investigate two different implications of the hypothesis the first implication is that cumulative changes in exchange rates in addition to current exchange rate levels are important determinants of trade flows the second implication is that foreign exporting firms perceptions of exchange rate volatility will affect their decisions to enter or exit the market the authors find little support for either aspect of the hysteresis hypothesis copyright 1993 by mit press

determinants of international trade flows this paper models and estimates import demand and demand for export functions for 19 industrial countries although primary emphasis is placed on the period of generalized floating exchange rates 1972 through 1980 estimates are also provided for the fixed exchange rate years 1957 1970 thus making possible a comparison between the two eras aside from the conventional income and price variables the paper assesses the effect of variations in the exchange rate and in the expected exchange rate on real trade flows additionally it estimates an unrestricted lag structure of the effect of price and exchange rate variations on imports

regional pay the public private sector pay differential abstractregional pay the public private sector pay differential regional studies this paper extends the debate on making public sector wages more responsive to those in the private sector the way in which the public private sector wage differential is calculated dramatically alters conclusions and far from there being substantial regional disparity in wages offered to public sector workers any differences are predominantly concentrated in london and the south east where public sector workers are significantly disadvantaged relative to private sector workers this has implications for staff recruitment and retention such findings question the need for regional market facing pay but highlight the necessity to revisit the london weighting offered to public sector workers

bilateral j curve between india and her trading partners india a land of over one billion people and one of the newly emerging industrial powers in the world is going through a slow but steady metamorphism for centuries india has played a major role in the international trade it was not uncommon to see her ships carrying silk and spices across the arabian seas and bringing back machine made textile invasions of india first by mughals and latter by the british through the east india company were all trade oriented india s presence in the world trade is relatively small at this time but is gaining momentum after independence in 1947 india for a brief period experimented with socialism the five year plans were mainly focused towards building infrastructure and development of small scale agriculture based industries the industrial development even though extremely important for growth played a secondary role the foreign investment was encouraged but only in the selected sectors of the economy however threat of nationalization a large bureaucracy corruption lack of understanding of the indian business practices and the requirement that a major share holder must be an indian national discouraged foreign capital investment in india during 1991 1992 india adopted a policy of trade liberalization to attract foreign capital and to encourage non resident indians to invest in their home country government of india established a separate unit within the home ministry whose main function was to expedite processing of applications india also relaxed the requirement that a major partner be an indian national india provided export subsidies to the exporters in terms of cash as well as foreign exchange so that they could import machines and raw materials exports responded to the trade liberalization and increased from 44 041 crores of rupees in 1991 1992 to 141 603 crores in 1998 1999 where one crore is equivalent to ten million in us dollar terms at a current exchange rate of 42 48 rupees per dollar this translates to an increase from 10 37 billion to 33 34 billion over eight years india also anticipates that through a major increase in the information technology mainly software industry her exports will increase to 90 billion by 2005 the trade liberalization has been accompanied by changes in the monetary policies the inflation rate has been reduced from about 12 to 9 per year the interest rates have declined from 14 to 10 and the exchange rate has been allowed to respond to market forces as a result from 1991 1992 to 1998 1999 the rupee has declined from 19 62 rupees per dollar to 42 48 rupees per dollar by december 2000 rupee had further devalued to 46 25 per dollar with a hope that it will further boost india s exports and improve her trade balance however the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance is not instantaneous indeed there is ample evidence in the literature that after currency depreciation the trade balance worsens in the short run before improving in the long run since this pattern of movement of the trade balance over time resembles the letter j magee 1973 labelled it the j curve phenomenon magee argued that after devaluation contracts that are in transit at old exchange rates dominate the short run response of the trade balance over time new contracts at new prices begin to exert their favourable impact at this stage elasticities may increase leading to an eventual improvement in the trade balance of course the delayed response could also be due to lags in the process of increasing the production of exportables junz and rhomberg 1973 have identified five lags namely recognition lags decision lags delivery lags replacement lags and production lags only after the realization of these lags the trade balance could improve early studies that tried to investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance relied upon estimating the marshall lerner condition the condition

globalization and competitive strategies in european vulnerable regions affuso a capello r and fratesi u globalization and competitive strategies in european vulnerable regions regional studies this paper highlights the role played by structural economic features and industrial competitive strategies in the performance of a group of european regions defined as vulnerable because of their specialization in industries particularly exposed to international trade different growth patterns emerge among them the most successful regions are those with a strong presence of high value added functions of best performing vulnerable sectors but also with high structural funds expenditure on human resources moreover among the industrial strategies analysed it is found that the only winning strategy explaining higher productivity gains is industrial reconversion at the expense of employment growth affuso a capello r et fratesi u la mondialisation et les strategies competitives des regions europeennes vulnerables regional studies cet article cherche a souligner le rol

an asymmetric analysis of the j curve effect in the commodity trade between china and the us this paper follows a non linear ardl error correction approach to examine the presence of the j curve in the commodity level trade between the united states and china the analysis disaggregates the us china trade flows by commodities and separately examines the trade balance responses of 97 commodities to the changes in the real yuan us exchange rates the analysis at the commodity level alleviates potential aggregation bias that is present in earlier studies offering little evidence for long run asymmetric effects of exchange rate on the china us trade balance we find strong support for short run asymmetric effects in the case of two third of the commodities whereas significant long run asymmetric effects are present in the case of one third of the commodities including those commodities which command large shares in the china us trade

just another expensive talking shop public attitudes and the 2004 regional assembly referendum in the north east of england rallings c and thrasher m 2006 just another expensive talking shop public attitudes and the 2004 regional assembly referendum in the north east of england regional studies 40 927 936 electors in the north east of england voted overwhelmingly in november 2004 against the establishment of an elected regional assembly all parts of the region every type of elector and supporters of all major political parties were opposed to the new institution although most people thought the region was disadvantaged compared with other parts of great britain few believed an assembly would have a positive impact on this or any other public concern supporters of the assembly were additionally handicapped by the perception that their campaign was less effective than that mounted by the no side the results of the referendum and the accompanying attitudes have removed elected regional assemblies from the policy agenda for the foreseeable future rallings c et thrasher m 2006 tout simplement c est un li

import content of exports and j curve effect this article investigates how the response to devaluation of trade balance is affected compared to j curve hypothesis by the presence of imported inputs in the production of exports using first the almon lag technique and then the cointegration and the generalized impulse response function analysis the j curve effect is examined in two sectors of turkish economy manufacturing and mining which use imported inputs at different rates based on the data covering the period from the first quarter of 1986 to the third quarter of 1998 our results indicate that in neither sector j curve exists and that the violation of the j curve effect is more severe in the sector with higher import content

political decentralization economic growth and regional disparities in the oecd ezcurra r and rodriguez pose a political decentralization economic growth and regional disparities in the oecd regional studies recent scholarly work has addressed whether decentralization affects economic growth and regional disparities by typically resorting to fiscal decentralization while disregarding political decentralization indices this article covers this gap by investigating the association between different political decentralization indices with two measures of economic performance changes in gross domestic product gdp per capita and in territorial inequalities the results suggest a lack of statistical relationship between political decentralization and economic growth regardless of how political decentralization is measured in the case of regional disparities the results depend on the index used and range from the absence of a link to a positive association between both factors ezcurra r and rodriguez pose a oecd

brazil us commodity trade and the j curve currency devaluation or depreciation is said to temporarily worsen a country s trade balance and improve it later an effect that is called the j curve previous research that tested the j curve for brazil used the country s aggregate trade flows with the rest of the world and did not find support for the phenomenon in this article we consider the trade flows between brazil and a major trading partner the united states disaggregating their trade flows by commodity we then test the empirical validity of the j curve for each of the 92 industries that trade between the two countries we find support for the phenomenon in 31 industries therefore disaggregation by industry seems to yield some support for the phenomenon

the exchange rate and the balance of trade the turkish experience in this article we examine the responsiveness of turkey s trade balance to devaluation accompanied by trade liberalisation our results show that the trade balance was responsive to changes in the exchange rate that were brought about by the economic reforms introduced in the 1980s suggesting that exchange rate policy was able to create and maintain a satisfactory balance of trade position in the 1980s and early 1990s

exchange rate depreciation and exports the case of singapore revisited this article revisits the weak relationship between exchange rate depreciation and exports for singapore using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean model that simultaneously estimates time varying risk the evidence shows that depreciation does not significantly improve exports but that exchange rate risk significantly impedes exports in sum singaporean policy makers can better promote export growth by stabilizing the exchange rate rather than generating its depreciation

anticipated versus unanticipated terms of trade shocks and the j curve phenomenon abstract using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model we examine the impact of anticipated and unanticipated terms of trade tot shocks on aggregate output inflation and the trade balance tb this allows us to offer an alternative explanation of the j curve phenomenon we find that an unanticipated tot shock increases real output as well as inflation but the j curve phenomenon may not exist under a certain condition however under the same condition an anticipated tot shock leads to the j curve effect we find that our main result concerning the j curve phenomenon continues to hold even if the assumption of rational expectations about the tot is relaxed further analysis reveals that the presence of a cost channel of monetary policy increases the intensity of the j curve effect assuming plausible parameter values while using a more general model calibration results support our theoretical predictions

effects of exchange rate variations on bilateral trade with a vehicle currency evidence from china and singapore abstract using a testable gravity type bilateral trade model derived from an underlying demand and supply model this paper explores the effects of exchange rate variations on bilateral trade in an exchange rate regime with a vehicle currency the introduction of the vehicle currency allows us to figure out whether variations in the trade volume due to the fluctuation of the bilateral exchange rate are primarily due to changes in demand or in supply or both more specifically in this theoretical framework the appreciation of one country s currency against the vehicle currency is expected to promote its imports but the effect of revaluation of the country s currency against the vehicle currency on its exports is ambiguous moreover high volatility of the exchange rate of one country s currency against the vehicle currency is also expected to depress its import volume from the empirical point of view the decomposition of the bilateral exchange rate of two currencies into the bilateral rates of these two currencies against the vehicle currency provides a new alternative to avoid the econometric problem of potential reverse causality in assessing the effects through compiling a novel monthly bilateral trade dataset between china and singapore over 21 years or 252 months we empirically test the predictions of our model which get robust support from the results

time intensive r d and unbalanced trade abstract this paper highlights a novel mechanism that generates global imbalances it develops a general equilibrium trade model with one of two countries having a comparative advantage in a sector whose production is characterized by i rapid anticipated demand growth and ii large up front r d costs international funding of the accruing r d costs generates capital inflows in the r d stage which are balanced by subsequent outflows importantly sector level growth does not generate growth differentials between countries typically regarded as rationales of global imbalances additionally it is shown that a trade surplus can coincide with appreciations of the real exchange rate i argue that switzerland s trade surplus which was driven to record heights during 2010 2014 by pharmaceutical exports exemplifies this mechanism calibrating the model to swiss trade flows underpins this argument

asymmetric j curve evidence from industry trade between u s and u k previous research that assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance between the u s and u k assumed the effects are symmetric in this paper we add to the literature on the

the j curve a literature review due to lag structure currency devaluation is said to worsen the trade balance first and improve it later resulting in a pattern that resemble the letter j hence the j curve phenomenon since its introduction by magee in 1973 brooking papers on economic activity 1 pp 303 25 a large number of studies have attempted to test the phenomenon using different techniques and different model specifications the results are at best ambiguous and deserve to be collected together for the future generation of researchers and graduate students this paper fills such a vacuum in the literature by reviewing the j curve related empirical papers

is there a j curve abstract if the response of the value of the trade balance to movements in the real exchange rate is described by a j curve then a real depreciation initially worsens a balance of trade deficit only improving it over time this paper investigates whether a j curve can be detected in the last twenty five years of american data no statistically reliable evidence of a stable j curve is detected the model is checked extensively to support this finding

was it real the exchange rate interest differential relation over the modern floating rate period in this paper we explore the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials in the united states germany japan and the united kingdom contrary to theories based on the joint hypothesis that domestic prices are sticky and monetary disturbances are predominant we find little evidence of a stable relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates we consider both in sample and out of sample tests one hypothesis that is consistent with our findings is that real disturbances such as productivity shocks may be a major source of exchange rate volatility this paper investigates the empirical relationship between major currency real exchange rates and real interest rates over the modern post march 1973 flexible rate experience the exchange rates examined here include the dollar mark dollar yen and dollar pound rates our two major findings are as follows first the data do not indicate a strong correspondence between real interest rate differentials short term or long term and real exchange rates this finding appears to conflict with the predictions of most monetary and portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination though the conflict can be substantially reconciled if aggregate disturbances are primarily real in nature i e changes in productivity tastes etc it is true that in many cases the sign of the estimated exchange rate interest rate differential relationship is consistent with the possible predominance of financial market disturbances but the relationship is not stable enough to be statistically significant second although one does find some evidence of a unit root in both real exchange rates and long term but not shortterm real interest differentials these two series do not appear to be linearly cointegrated hence the nonstationarity or near nonstationarity in the two series cannot be attributed to the same factor in section i we briefly describe a class of small scale monetary models of exchange rate determination the importance of this class of models for empirical work derives from its strong predictions about how the exchange rate will move

the dynamics of uncertainty or the uncertainty of dynamics stochastic j curves that the u s trade account will improve in response to a depreciation is not generally in doubt the key questions are by how much and by when addressing these questions involves studying the distribution of trade account responses to a depreciation given a depreciation of the dollar the paper generates this distribution by simulating a trade model with random drawings of both innovations and elasticity estimates unlike previous studies this analysis explains trade on a bilateral basis and uses the full information maximum likelihood estimator for parameter estimation according to the findings the dispersion of trade account responses grows over time and is directly related to the magnitude of the depreciation furthermore the probability of a slow adjustment of the trade account is relatively high and the 95 percent confidence intervals are too wide to be useful for policies that target a given trade account path copyright 1991 by mit press

intertemporal substitution in imported durables abstract this paper analyzes the hitherto unexplored relation between expected exchange rates and import prices of durable goods the distinguishing feature of durable goods is their asset like quality implying that their current and future sales are substitutable durability induces intertemporal substitution hence expected exchange rates affect the current price of imported durables although the sign of the effect cannot be determined by theory only the evidence shows that an expected appreciation raises the current import price of durables

business cycles in the united kingdom facts and fictions this paper documents the statistical properties of contemporary business fluctuations in the united kingdom we study the period 1956 90 using quarterly detrended data on key aggregate variables we compute selected moments of the data compare our results with those for the united states and rigorously test for dynamic instabilities our findings confirm the existence of substantive cyclical regularities both across countries and across time some notable cross country differences are also identified conclusions about stability are shown to be potentially sensitive to the method of testing in general cross correlations are appreciably more stable than standard deviations

transitory and permanent disturbances and the current account an empirical analysis in the intertemporal framework the intertemporal models of current account determination demonstrate that in the analysis of the current account balance of a country it is important to distinguish between transitory and permanent disturbances in income and relative prices this paper attempts to decompose the observed data on income and real exchange rate into transitory and permanent components and then uses the decomposed series to test the empirical validity of the predictions of the intertemporal models evidence from the united states and japan provide very limited support for the intertemporal models in terms of the effects of transitory and permanent changes in income on current account balance for both us and japan the study finds that permanent changes in real exchange rate have significant effects on the current account balance statistical tests find no evidence of hysteresis in the trading relations of the two countries

the j curve malaysia versus her major trading partners currency depreciation is said to worsen the trade balance before improving it hence the j curve phenomenon since introduction of cointegration and error correction modelling researchers have tried to distinguish the short run effects of currency depreciation from its long run effects a few studies that have investigated the experience of malaysia have relied upon aggregate trade data and have found no strong support for a significant relation between the real value of the ringgit and the malaysian trade balance in this article we disaggregate the data by country and consider malaysia s bilateral trade balance with her 14 largest trading partners using bound testing approach to cointegration and error correction modelling we provide some support for the j curve hypothesis

the j curve effect and us agricultural and industrial trade this paper examines the j curve hypothesis for us agricultural and manufactured goods using the shiller lag model the results support the j curve effect for agricultural goods but not for manufactured goods these findings explain why many studies in the literature fail to support the j curve phenomenon there are two explanations for these findings 1 the aggregation bias of data that combine both agricultural and manufactured goods and 2 the country under study is often an industrial nation like the us or japan with a high proportion of manufactured goods in both exports and imports

external adjustment in oil exporters the role of fiscal policy and the exchange rate after the decline in oil prices many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role these conclusions are supported by regression analysis of the determinants of the current account balance and of the trade balance the results show little or no relationship with the exchange rate and especially for the less diversified oil exporters a strong relationship with the fiscal balance or government spending

impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows evidence from commodity trade between the united states and the united kingdom previous studies that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows employed aggregate trade data and standard estimation techniques they provided mixed results in this paper we use disaggregated import and export data for 177 commodities traded between the united states and the united kingdom to investigate whether volatility of the real bilateral dollar pound exchange rate has any detrimental effect on trade flows at the commodity level additionally we employ the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modelling that is suitable for the models used mostly because it does not require pre unit root testing and variables in the model could be stationary non stationary or a combination of the two in most trade flow models estimated we found a negative effect of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade

integrating finance into global production networks coe n m lai k p y and wojcik d integrating finance into global production networks regional studies while successful in its aim of globalizing regional development the global production network gpn approach has thus far paid less attention to the role of finance in the dynamics of the global economy and regional development this lacuna is significant as finance is arguably even more globalized and networked than production to address this gap the paper distils the concept of the global financial network gfn from financial geography and related scholarship with advanced business services world cities and offshore jurisdictions at the core interactions between the gpn and the gfn are discussed focusing on the financing and financializing of gpns and the co evolution of globalization and financialization integrating finance into gpn research entails more than a simple extension of the approach it would also enrich it conceptually and enable it methodologically and empirically

intertemporal prices and the u s trade balance the deterioration of the u s merchandise trade deficit in the 1980s fell mostly on durable goods using a representative agent model the authors show that the key distinction between the trade balance in nondurables and durables is the role of intertemporal prices in the latter a decrease in intertemporal prices associated for example with an exchange rate overvaluation should therefore be expected to worsen the trade balance in durables more than in nondurables this interpretation of the compositional changes of the u s trade balance is supported by their econometric findings copyright 1992 by american economic association

bilateral j curve between the uk vis a vis her major trading partners currency depreciation is said to worsen the trade balance first before resulting in an improvement yielding a short run pattern labelled the j curve phenomenon while early studies tested the j curve by using aggregate trade data a few recent studies have employed bilateral data mostly between the us and her major trading partners in this paper we extend the literature by considering the experience of the uk we test the phenomenon between the uk and her twenty major trading partners by employing data over 1973q1 2001q3 period in most instances we find no support for the j curve in the short run in the long run only in five cases has the exchange rate had significant impact on the bilateral trade balance

measuring global money market interrelationships an investigation of five major world currencies abstract this paper extends the study of global money market integration in two primary directions first a technique which combines stationarity and cointegration tests as a basis for constructing an error correction model is applied to assess the existence of long run equilibrium relationships between money market series second analysis for the increasingly significant asian offshore markets of singapore and hong kong is added to traditional european and national markets analysis major findings are 1 the error correction model is an appropriate technique for identifying causality relationships and 2 major domestic markets and included offshore markets are partially segmented

the j curve and nafta evidence from commodity trade between the us and mexico the north american free trade agreement nafta was predicted to have a substantial impact on the us mexico trade especially on specific importing and exporting industries in this article we use annual industry level export and import data from 1962 to 2004 to discern both the short and long run effects of real exchange rate depreciation on the mexico us trade balance as well as the effects of nafta on this trade we find that peso depreciation has a positive long run effect on 24 of 102 mexican industries and a negative short run effect on 19 of 102 industries only a small fraction 7 of 102 industries show any support for the j curve hypothesis nafta has had a significant effect on a significant number of the industries however

climate instability urbanisation and international migration abstractthis paper focuses on climate induced migration we construct a simple theoretical model where in a first step climate shocks accelerate the transition from the traditional to the modern sector leading rural workers to move to urban centres within national borders while in a second step downward pressures on wages due to the greater labour supply in cities push people to engage in international migration to test this hypothesis we exploit a rich panel dataset displaying a representative picture of bilateral migration flows and climatic data across 222 countries for the period 1960 2000 findings suggest that in the next few years the climate induced growth rate of migrant stocks might be in a range between 8 6 per cent and 12 8 per cent especially from developing countries where the level of rural employment is more likely to be affected by climatic shocks

can exchange rate variations or trade policy alter the equilibrium current account abstract paul krugman has pointed out that much work needs to be done before the intertemporal open economy model can replace the open economy is lm model as a guide to policy making the objective here is to take a step in this direction by examining if an exogenous increase in world demand for home goods as via trade policy can improve the equilibrium current account within an open economy intertemporal model in the process the paper explores the theoretical issue as to whether a variation in the real exchange rate can alter the difference between saving and investment the key idea is that uncovered interest parity plus some degree of mean reversion in the real exchange rate imply that a modern version of the laursen metzler harberger effect is operative the result is that a policy induced increase in the trade balance will alter the real exchange rate which in turn increases the difference between home saving and investment and thereby improves the equilibrium current account

the dynamic relationship between the dollar and components of u s trade the dynamic response of the nominal trade account to changes in the value of the u s dollar has been posited to follow a j curve pattern recent experience calls this into question the aggregate nominal trade balance is decomposed here into four components both prices and volumes of imports and exports time series specification tests and granger tests of causal priority are employed to identify the existence and nature of the response of each individual component to dollar movements surprisingly weak and delayed responses of both import prices and volumes are found suggesting a new view of trade balance evolution

cointegration how short is the long run abstract when testing for cointegration and faced with short sample periods it is common for researchers to turn to more frequently sampled observations that is to move from annual to quarterly or monthly data in order to increase the number of observations we argue that such a gain in the degrees of freedom is more apparent than real essentially cointegration is a long run concept and hence requires long spans of data to give tests for cointegration much power rather than merely large numbers of observations using monte carlo simulations we demonstrate this for four popular tests for cointegration

the us china trade imbalance will revaluing the rmb help much abstract the large us china trade imbalance is regularly blamed on the undervalued rmb using an estimated model of the trade balance we find that improvements in the trade balance are likely to be modest for plausible revaluations

network governance for competitiveness the role of policy networks in the economic performance of settlements in the izmir region some cities and regions grow faster than others and they increase their relative shares in the global economy the literature offers a wide list of factors of competitiveness most of which define individual capacities of cities recently however there has been an increasing focus on the importance of network governance and the policy networks formed between different cities this paper examines the importance of policy networks compared with other widely recognised factors of competitiveness to the economic performance of settlements in the izmir region and investigates the importance of classical competitiveness indicators and network relations on their economic performance with the use of econometric methods in conclusion it discusses the importance of policy networks in administrative reform processes and economic development policies

exchange rate of the us dollar and the j curve the case of oil exporting countries abstract this study examines the effects of changes in the exchange rate of the us dollar on the trade balances of three oil exporting countries namely iran venezuela and saudi arabia an exchange rate pass through model is applied to allow changes in the exchange rate of the dollar to affect prices of traded goods then the impact of changes in prices on the quantities of imports and exports of these economies is estimated the results suggest a partial exchange rate pass through to these countries import and export prices in terms of the us dollar while the three countries raise the price of their primary export namely crude oil in response to a depreciation of the dollar saudi arabia s long run pricing strategy in securing a larger market share stands in contrast to that of the two other opec members the sum of the estimated long run price elasticities of demand for imports and exports is found to exceed unity for iran and venezuela but less than unity for saudi arabia

the j curve dynamics of turkey an application of ardl model this article seeks an empirical evidence for the existence of the j curve phenomenon both in the short run and long run for turkey over the period 1980 2005 the bounds testing cointegration approach is employed to estimate the trade balance model an augmented form of granger causality analysis is implemented between trade balance real effective exchange rates foreign income and domestic income the stability of the short run as well as long run coefficients in the trade balance model is tested too the empirical results suggest that the j curve phenomenon is supported only in the short run whilst causality tests reveal mix results the parameter stability tests seem to be inconclusive

how sensitive is commodity trade flows between us and india to currency depreciation previous studies that investigated the impact of real depreciation of the rupee on indian trade balance used aggregate trade data and provided no support for real depreciation to be effective in improving india s trade balance in this article we disaggregate the indian trade data by commodity and consider the sensitivity of each industry s inpayments export value and outpayments import value to real rupee dollar exchange rate annual data over the period of 1962 to 2004 from 40 industries that trade between the two countries as well as bounds testing approach are used to show that while in half of the industries real depreciation of rupee has short run effects on inpayments and outpayments the short run effects do not last into the long run in majority of the cases

labor market adjustments and the persistence of unemployment persistent unemployment like that plaguing europe since the early 1980 s has been a persistent problem for economic theory competitive equilibrium theory assumes that all markets clear including the labor market all theories of unemployment thus must reflect significant departures from that paradigm the last 20 years have generated a plethora of such theories the challenge is to construct models that generate unemployment and are broadly consistent with a host of other labor and macroeconomic phenomena including patterns of real wages and hours the traditional approach is to focus on a simple static equilibrium in which wages are kept above their market clearing level for a variety of reasons in the older versions of this story minimum wages union power and normative traditions in its more recent incarnations efficiency wage considerations within the united states the older variants of these models have received decreasing credence as union power has eroded the real value of the minimum wage has declined and empirical evidence has buttressed a broader set of theoretical arguments based on imperfect competition within the labor market and efficiency wage considerations suggesting at most negligible effects from these government interventions efficiency wage variants are more broadly consistent with observed labormarket behavior and help explain both natural rates of unemployment and certain cyclical phenomena e g the use of layoffs rather than job sharing see carl shapiro and stiglitz 1984 lawrence summers 1990 moreover to the extent that unemployment compensation and protection against separations for cause have improved recently in europe these models can explain the secular rise in european unemployment see edmund phelps 1994 2 on the other hand as conventionally formulated they leave many aspects of the labor market unexplained 3 more recent theories analyze unemployment as the result of imbalances between flows into and out of the job market 4 in these models in steady state on average the flow supply into unemployment must balance the flow out the equilibrium level of unemployment is thus determined through relations between these flows and the level of unemployment most noted within this genre are the labor turnover theories in which labor costs are affected by wages and the unemployment rate and the job search models in which unemployment arises from the need for job matches which by assumption can only occur among the

monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand how important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output we ask the question at three levels can monopolistic competition by itself explain why aggregate demand movements affect output can it together with other imperfections generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot if so can it give an accurate account of the response of the economy to aggregate demand movements the answers are no yes and yes

macroeconomic strategies towards internal and external balance in the nordic countries the aim of this paper is to clarify the policy strategies pursued in the nordic countries in the 1970s and 1980s to attain internal and external balance a distinction is made between i a bridging strategy ii a sheltering or adaptive strategy and iii a production strategy of export led growth these strategies are characterized and related to the experience of the

exchange rates and fiscal policy in a popular model of international trade this paper develops a reinterpretation of the devaluation analysis in a popular model of international trade developed by charles bickerdike joan robinson and lloyd metzler it has come to be known as the elasticity approach 1 that model developed in terms of independent markets for imports and exports has been criticized for its apparent lack of general equilibrium properties the assumptions underlying the model have remained by and large implicit and vary across users and the integration of this analysis with the absorption approach and macroeconomics has never been demonstrated all this is very much recognized and indeed application of the model is consistently accompanied by appropriate partial equilibrium impact effect or upper bound caveats these shortcomings notwithstanding the model continues to enjoy substantial popularity in policy discussions and interpretations of current events in empirical work and in recent textbooks in the field of international economics the brm model is likely to remain the preferred tool in the analysis of trade balance issues along with the foreign trade multiplier model it is therefore interesting and useful to enquire into its formal general equilibrium implications this paper is concerned with one such interpretation involving a nontraded goods sector and a well defined government policy that makes the analysis consistent with the absorption approach while it may well be possible to generate alternative interpretations the present analysis would seem to have the advantage of simplicity while at the same time pointing out the essential properties that would have to be satisfied by alternative treatments in section i a brief review of the brm approach is offered in section ii that approach is interpreted in terms of a simple model with nontraded goods and constant terms of trade the implicit assumptions of the brm model are brought to the f oreground by an explicit consideration of the market for home goods the equilibrium conditions and the role of the relative price of nontraded goods 3 following that analysis section iii considers the subsidiary issues that are raised by variable terms of trade the notion of total elasticities is given an interpretation in section iv where we return to the composite traded good model to explore alternative assumptions about absorption policies

measurement of the unexpected us trade deficit abstract monthly announcements from 1980 through 1992 of the us overall and bilateral balance of trade figures and revisions of previous announcements are examined in detail the unexpected trade deficit is measured as the difference between the announced overall trade deficit and the median survey measure from money market services survey expectations are found to incorporate publicly available information a surprisingly large trade deficit is associated with expectations of larger future trade deficits unexpected bilateral trade balances and revisions of previous overall balances which are released at the same time as the overall trade deficit significantly influence the canadian dollar and some us stock market indexes

spatially rebalancing the uk economy towards a new policy model martin r pike a tyler p and gardiner b spatially rebalancing the uk economy towards a new policy model regional studies the current uk government has announced its intention to rebalance the national economy spatially to create a northern powerhouse to rival that in london and the south east this imbalance is in fact a longstanding problem that 90 years of regional policy has not resolved this paper argues that the entrenched nature of the uk s spatial imbalance derives in part from the centralized nature of the national political economy and that only a bold and radical change in that political economy based on a devolution and decentralization of or economic financial and political power is called for

vertical product differentiation and the import demand function theory and evidence in this paper we use a model of vertical product differentiation to cast doubt on the general validity of the import demand function as specified in macroeconomic models the empirical importance of our theoretical concerns is then established according to our first hypothesis the share of a good s imports in total imports is non increasing in domestic wages if the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties of this good the second hypothesis states that the share of a good s imports is increasing in non wage domes tic income if the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties of this good

the balance of trade and exchange rates theory and contemporary evidence from tourism abstract the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance specifically we employed linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag ardl cointegration techniques to analyze the extent to which currency depreciations and appreciations affect the united states u s bilateral tourism trade with canada mexico and the united kingdom u k the results showed that the depreciation of the u s dollar subsequently improves the u s trade balance with all three trading partners however while the appreciation of the u s dollar deteriorates the u s bilateral tourism trade balance with canada and the u k it does not ultimately affect the u s bilateral tourism trade with mexico in the long term these results provide evidence contradicting the j curve theory supporting the postulations of the ml condition theoretical and policy implications are discussed within the realms of j curve theory marshall lerner ml condition international trade and tourism

the impact of real exchange rate flexibility on east asian exports this paper estimates the impact of intra regiona l real exchange rate flexibility on east asian exports the hypothesis is that t he impact would be negative for east asian countries regardless of their exchange

inequality and the us import demand function in this paper we build a model of trade in vertically differentiated products and find that income inequality can affect the demand for imports even in the presence of homothetic preferences the empirical importance of changes in inequality on the demand for imports is then assessed by examining panel data for 36 developing and developed countries for the 1980 1997 period we find significant evidence supporting our prediction that inequality has a large influence on the demand for imports moreover we find that in line with the predictions of our theoretical model this influence is positive for high income countries countries that produce the high quality variety of the vertically differentiated product and negative for low income countries countries that produce the low quality variety of the vertically differentiated product

does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically asian evidence abstract this paper tests the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate risk with a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate garch 1 1 m model the asymmetry means that exchange rate risk volatility affects exports differently during appreciations and depreciations which may reflect exporter s asymmetric risk perception and hedging behavior using bilateral exports from eight asian countries to the us the real exchange rate risk significantly affects exports for all countries negative or positive in periods of depreciation or appreciation thus policy makers can consider the stability of the exchange rate in addition to its depreciation as a method of controlling export growth

a model of imperfect competition with keynesian features the recent literature on the reappraisal of keynes has viewed keynesian equilibria as arising when prices are fixed and effective demands and supplies are equilibrated through the adjustment of quantities one problem with this approach is that it lacks a theory of price determination in particular of why prices are fixed in the present paper we show that a number of keynesian features arise in a model in which prices are fully flexible but where agents have some monopoly power one advantage of this approach is that it provides a theory of the determination of both prices and quantities

current account and macroeconomic fluctuations the primary purpose of this study is to establish some stylized facts about current account and macroeconomic fluctuations in sweden another purpose is to propose a multivariate detrending technique which is based on a time series model with common stochastic trends this technique should be useful for establishing stylized facts about macroeconomic fluctuations in general the descriptive statistics in this analysis are thus confined to the transitory components of the time series in contrast with results obtained for other countries we find e g that the current account is procyclical

long run dynamics of black and official exchange rates abstract this paper examines the relationships among black and official foreign exchange rates its primary purpose is to investigate the way in which black and official markets process information application of cointegration tests to the turkish markets for us dollars and west german marks in the mid 1980s indicates that the two black markets are efficient information processors for the black and official markets of each currency evidence is found suggesting the possibility of overshooting by the black exchange rate this inefficiency may not be able to be arbitraged away because of restrictions on capital flows through official channels

the role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade abstract this paper examines the empirical relationship between the real effective exchange rate and the aggregate real trade balance for five major oecd countries in the post bretton woods era a variety of parametric and non parametric techniques are used there is little evidence that the exchange rate significantly affects the trade balance

the j curve evidence from commodity trade between uk and china in testing the short run j curve effect and the long run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance many researchers have used either trade data between one country and the rest of the world or between one country and another trading partner both groups are said to suffer from aggregation bias to reduce the bias in this article we consider trade data between one country the us and her trading partner china disaggregated by commodity we use imports and exports of 88 industries 2 digit and 3 digit classifications and cointegration analysis to show that the trade balance of at least 34 of the industries react favourably to real depreciation of the dollar the j curve effect is detected in 22 industries furthermore most of these industries that are sensitive to currency depreciation are durable commodity groupings

drivers of export demand a focus on the giips countries this study investigates the drivers of export demand in the peripheral economies of the euro area namely greece ireland italy portugal and spain giips for the period between 1980 and 2012 recently several authors have pointed out that changes in trade export shares are not associated with major terms of trade disturbances rather they are the result of other underlying factors commonly defined as non price competitiveness starting from this premise the study extends the traditional imperfect substitute trade model to include a measure of non price competitiveness real capital stock the latter is a measure of a country s total resource base and captures the presence of product differentiation and product innovation the results show a significant link between export demand and cumulative investments in the short term giips exports are dominated by the movements of worldwide real income while changes in price and non competitiveness take longer to affect export performance in the long run all three variables play a significant role in pushing exports

immobility and insecure labour markets an active response to precarious employment this article explores how people experience and respond to a post industrial labour market context through residential im mobility focusing on places that are represented through a range of offic

nominal and real effective exchange rates of middle eastern countries and their trade performance indexes of real and nominal effective exchange rates that are published by the imf are mostly for industrial countries none of the middle eastern countries have received any attention on this regard this paper tries to close the gap by constructing such indexes for 11 middle eastern countries over 1971 i 1994 iv period as an application long run response of their trade balance to devaluation is also investigated

commodity trade between pakistan and the us is there evidence of the j curve abstracta few studies that have attempted to estimate the short run j curve and long run impact of exchange rate depreciation on pakistan s trade balance are either based on aggregate trade data between pakistan and the rest of the world or between pakistan and her bilateral trading partners the findings are mixed at best considering the trade balance between pakistan and the us as one of its major partners no significant effects have been discovered suspecting that the trade flows between the two countries could suffer from another aggregation bias we disaggregate their trade flows by commodity and consider the trade balance of 45 industries that trade between the two countries we find significant short run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance of 17 industries the short run effects last into the long run in 15 cases the largest industry that account for more than 10 of the trade seems to benefit from real depreciation in the long run

asymmetric response of the us india trade balance to exchange rate changes evidence from 68 industries the relationship between the trade balance and the exchange rate continues to attract attention by international economists and has entered into new territory mostly due to advances in econometric methods the introduction of asymmetric error correction modelling and asymmetric cointegration using the nonlinear ardl approach of shin et al festschrift in honor of peter schmidt econometric methods and applications springer 2014 281 as compared to the symmetric and linear ardl approach of pesaran et al journal of applied econometrics 2001 16 289 has led us in a new direction to discover relatively better results we apply these methods to the bilateral trade balance model of each of the 68 industries that trade between india and the usa the nonlinear approach not only provides more support to the j curve effect but also yields support in favour of short run and long run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in most of the industries

exchange rates and the trade balance abstract the impact of the exchange rate on the trade balance is examined for a number of developing countries non structural techniques indicate that a depreciation of the real exchange rate is not strongly associated with a significant improvement in the trade balance

exchange rate policy and trade balance a cointegration analysis of the argentine experience since 1962 using multivariate cointegration tests for nonstationary data and vector error correction models this article examines the determinants of trade balance tb for argentina over the last forty to fifty years taking into account that the short run impacts of currency depreciation on the tb behaviour may differ from the long run effects our investigation confirms the existence of long run relationships among tb real exchange rate rer and foreign and domestic incomes for argentina during different rer management policies based on the estimations the marshall lerner condition is checked and by means of impulse response functions we trace the effect of a one time shock to the rer on the tb not finding support for a j curve pattern in the short run