managing without growth abstract there are three main arguments why developed countries should consider managing without growth 1 continued economic growth worldwide is not an option owing to environmental and resource constraints and so developed countries should leave room for growth in developing countries where the benefits of growth are evident 2 in developed countries growth has become uneconomic in the sense that it detracts more from well being than it adds and 3 economic growth in developed countries is neither necessary nor sufficient for meeting specific policy objectives such as full employment no poverty and protection of the environment this paper explores various growth scenarios for canada over the medium range to 2020 using lowgrow a dynamic simulation model after describing lowgrow a scenario is presented that shows conditions under which the rate of unemployment in canada could be reduced to historically low levels poverty eliminated and greenhouse gas emissions reduced to comply with canada s commitment under the kyoto protocol without relying on economic growth this is not to say that zero growth should itself become a policy objective rather that the dependence on and defence of economic growth should not be an obstacle to fulfilling more specific welfare enhancing objectives of full employment eliminating poverty and protecting the environment the paper concludes with some policy implications for managing without growth followed by an annex which provides a technical description of lowgrow

co2 emissions and income dynamics what does the global evidence tell us this paper analyzes the co evolution of two major determinants of social welfare namely income and carbon emissions in particular by using a distribution dynamics approach based on markov chains we investigate the shape and behavior of the joint distribution of per capita income and carbon dioxide emissions we arrive at several interesting conclusions especially in the context of international negotiations on climate change first evidence does not support theoretical models predicting the existence of a poverty environment trap specifically in the long run two main groups of countries will emerge poor versus polluting countries second the typical development path leads initially to high emission levels and subsequently to high income third the convergence process towards the stationary distribution is very slow finally for carbon emissions whenever it is observed the environmental kuznets curve seems to be only a transitory phenomenon

the concept of natural capital the natural environment is now commonly viewed as a form of capital asset or natural capital also included are ecosystems that provide important goods and services to the economy managing natural capital has consequences for sustainable development however there are contrasting weak versus strong sustainability views which in turn have implications for green accounting natural resource based sovereign wealth funds have emerged as key financial instruments for compensating resource depreciation with greater economy wide investments recent scientific evidence recommends demarcating safe operating spaces to limit exploitation of critical global biophysical subsystems or processes these challenges suggest that the concept of natural capital is pivotal to sound policy

ramsey discounting of ecosystem services most ecosystem services which are essential for human well being are globally declining while the production of consumption goods measured by gdp is still growing to adequately account for this opposite development in public cost benefit analyses it has been proposed based on a two goods extension of the ramsey growth model to apply good specific discount rates for manufactured consumption goods and for ecosystem services using empirical data for ten ecosystem services across five countries and the world at large we estimated the difference between the discount rates for ecosystem services and for manufactured consumption goods in a conservative estimate we found that ecosystem services in all countries should be discounted at rates that are significantly lower than the ones for manufactured consumption goods on global average ecosystem services should be discounted at a rate that is 0 9 pm 0 3 points lower than the one for manufactured consumption goods the difference is larger in less developed countries and smaller in more developed countries this result supports and substantiates the suggestion that public cost benefit analyses should use country specific dual discount rates one for manufactured consumption goods and one for ecosystem services

organizational design and technology choice under intrafirm bargaining comment the authors consider a wide number of applications of an intrafirm bargaining game within organizations where employees and the firm engage in wage negotiations under their presumption that contracts cannot bind employees to the organization the resulting stable wage and profit profiles give rise to an objective function for the firm that places weight on inframarginal profits in an economically significant manner the authors in turn employ this methodology to explore applications of organizational design hiring and capital decisions training and cross training the importance of labor and asset specificity managerial hierarchies preferences for unionization responses to competition and internal capital budgeting copyright 1996 by american economic association

costs of business cycles for unskilled workers abstract unskilled workers are subject to a much larger risk of unemployment during recessions than are skilled workers moreover unskilled workers earn less income which limits their ability to self insure we examine how this heterogeneity in unemployment risk and income across different skill groups translates into heterogeneity in the cost of business cycles we find that the welfare cost of business cycles for unskilled workers is substantially higher than the welfare cost for skilled workers

historical frontiers and the rise of inequality the case of the frontier of granada the authors acknowledge financial support from the spanish ministry of science and technology grant eco2009 13357 the spanish ministry of economics and competitiveness grant eco2012 35430 and the andalusian council of innovation and science excellence project sej 4546

on the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations abstract conventional analyses of labor market fluctuations ascribe a minor role to labor force participation we show by contrast that flows based analyses imply that the participation margin accounts for around one third of unemployment fluctuations a novel stock flow apparatus establishes these facts delivering three further contributions first the role of the participation margin appears robust to adjustments for spurious transitions induced by reporting error second conventional stocks based analyses are subject to a stock flow fallacy neglecting offsetting forces of worker flows on the participation rate third increases in labor force attachment among the unemployed during recessions are a leading explanation for the role of the participation margin

wage rigidity and job creation recent research in macroeconomics emphasizes the role of wage rigidity in accounting for the volatility of unemployment fluctuations we use worker level data from the cps to measure the sensitivity of wages of newly hired workers to changes in aggregate labor market conditions the wage of new hires unlike the aggregate wage is volatile and responds almost one to one to changes in labor productivity we conclude that there is little evidence for wage rigidity in the data

separations sorting and cyclical unemployment abstract this paper establishes a new fact about the compositional changes in the pool of unemployed over the us business cycle using microdata from the current population survey for the years 1962 2012 it documents that in recessions the pool of unemployed shifts toward workers with high wages in their previous job and that these shifts are driven by the high cyclicality of separations for high wage workers the paper finds that standard theories of wage setting and unemployment have difficulty in explaining these patterns and evaluates a number of alternative theories that do better in accounting for the new fact jel e24 e32 j31 j63 j64

farm costs and food miles an assessment of the full cost of the uk weekly food basket changes in both farm production and food transport have resulted in the imposition of new levels of environmental costs this study analyses the full costs of foods in the average weekly uk food basket by calculating the costs arising at diverent stages from farms to consumers plates of the 12 commodities assessed livestock produce contributes the most costs per kg the external cost of uk agriculture up to the farm gate is estimated to be 1 51 bn yr i1 it is calculated that a switch to organic production could lead to avoided costs of 1 13 bn yr i1 agricultural and food produce accounts for 28 of goods transported on uk roads currently imposing estimated external costs of 2 35 bn yr i1 the contribution made by sea and air transport is currently trivial owing to low volumes however road transport to carry food from the shop to home is estimated to impose a further 1 28 bn yr i1 to total external costs subsidies not targeted at environmental improvements cost consumers 2 88 bn yr i1 thus the real cost of the per capita uk food basket 24 79 is calculated to be 2 91 more per person wk i1 11 8 if externalities and subsidies are included with farm externalities 81 p domestic road transport 76 p government subsidies 93 p and shopping transport 41 p contributing the most we assess a variety of scenarios for adoption of organic farming localised food systems and sustainable transport to indicate the substantial potential to reduce environmental costs in the uk food system 2005 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

minimum wage effects on labor market outcomes under search matching and endogenous contact rates building upon a continuous time model of search with nash bargaining in a stationary environment we analyze the effect of changes in minimum wages on labor market outcomes and welfare although minimum wage increases may or may not lead to increases in unemployment in our model they can be welfare improving to labor market participants on both the supply and demand sides of the labor market we discuss identification of the model using current population survey data on accepted wages and unemployment durations and show that by incorporating a limited amount of information from the demand side of the market it is possible to obtain credible and precise estimates of all primitive parameters we show that the optimal minimum wage in 1996 depends critically on whether or not contact rates can be considered to be exogenous and we note that the limited variation in minimum wages makes testing this assumption problematic

the cyclicality of separation and job finding rates this paper uses cps gross flow data to analyze the business cycle dynamics of separation and job finding rates and to quantify their contributions to overall unemployment variability cyclical changes in the separation rate are negatively correlated with changes in productivity and move contemporaneously with them while the job finding rate is positively correlated with and tends to lag productivity contemporaneous fluctuations in the separation rate explain between 40 and 50 percent of fluctuations in unemployment depending on how the data are detrended this figure becomes larger when dynamic interactions between the separation and job finding rates are considered

real wages over the business cycle evidence from panel data one topic on which keynes did not disagree with classical economists was the cyclical behavior of real wages keynes 1936 as well as various classical writers predicted that real wages should move countercyclically quoting the general theory p 17 in general an increase in employment can only occur through the accompaniment of a decline in real wages thus i am not disputing this vital fact which the classical economists have rightly asserted as indefeasible this prediction is based on the premise of competition and a given short run capital stock increases in employment then correspond to more intensive use of capital and through diminishing product lower real wages for this reason evidence by dunlop 1938 and tarshis 1939 that real wages move procyclically was viewed as paradoxical both dunlop and tarshis based their findings on an observed positive correlation between real and money wages which given the procyclical movement of money wages implies a positive correlation between

inequality in landownership the emergence of human capital promoting institutions and the great divergence this paper suggests that inequality in the distribution of landownership adversely affected the emergence of human capital promoting institutions e g public schooling and thus the pace and the nature of the transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy contributing to the emergence of the great divergence in income per capita across countries the prediction of the theory regarding the adverse effect of the concentration of landownership on education expenditure is established empirically based on evidence from the beginning of the 20th century in the u s

non hbox co _2 co 2 generating energy shares in the world cross country differences and polarization the aim of this paper is to examine the spatial distribution of non hbox co 2 generating energy sources in the world for the period 1990 2009 paying special attention to the evolution of cross country disparities to this end after carrying out a classical convergence analysis a more thorough investigation of the entire distribution is presented by examining its external shape the intra distribution dynamics and the long run equilibrium distribution this analysis reveals the existence of a weak rather insignificant convergence process and that large cross country differences are likely to persist in the long run next as polarization indicators are a proper way of appraising potential conflict in international environmental negotiations we test whether or not the distribution dynamics concurs with the presence of polarization our results indicate that two poles can be clearly differentiated one with high and other with low non hbox co 2 generating energy shares in view of these findings and to ensure a fair transition to a sustainable energy system the paper calls for the development of an ambitious clean energy agenda especially in countries with low non hbox co 2 generating energy shares

frictional wage dispersion in search models a quantitative assessment we propose a new measure of frictional wage dispersion the mean min wage ratio for a large class of search models we show that this measure is independent of the wage offer distribution but depends on statistics of labor market turnover and on preferences under plausible preference parameterizations observed magnitudes for worker flows imply that in the basic search model and in most of its extensions frictional wage dispersion is very small notable exceptions are some of the most recent models of on the job search our new measure allows us to rationalize the diverse empirical findings in the large literature estimating structural search models

the sahel a malthusian challenge the population of the least developed countries of the sahel will more than triple from 100 million to 340 million by 2050 and new research projects that today s extreme temperatures will become the norm by mid century the region is characterized by poverty illiteracy weak infrastructure failed states widespread conflict and an abysmal status of women scenarios beyond 2050 demonstrate that without urgent and significant action today the sahel could become the first part of planet earth that suffers large scale starvation and escalating conflict as a growing human population outruns diminishing natural resources national governments and the international community can do a great deal to ameliorate this unfolding disaster if they put in place immediate policies and investments to help communities adapt to climate change make family planning realistically available and improve the status of girls and women implementing evidence based action now will be an order of magnitude more humane and cost effective than confronting disaster later however action will challenge some long held development paradigms of economists demographers and humanitarian organizations if the crisis unfolding in the sahel can help bridge the current intellectual chasm between the economic commitment to seemingly endless growth and the threat seen by some biologists and ecologists that human activity is bringing about irreversible damage to the biosphere then it may be possible also to begin to solve this same formidable problem at a global level

jevons paradox revisited the evidence for backfire from improved energy efficiency beginning with william stanley jevons in 1865 a number of authors have claimed that economically justified energy efficiency improvements will increase rather than reduce energy consumption jevons paradox is extremely difficult to test empirically but could have profound implications for energy and climate policy this paper summarises and critiques the arguments and evidence that have been cited in support of jevons paradox focusing in particular on the work of len brookes and harry saunders it identifies some empirical and theoretical weaknesses in these arguments highlights the questions they raise for economic orthodoxy and points to some interesting parallels between these arguments and those used by the biophysical school of ecological economics while the evidence in favour of jevons paradox is far from conclusive it does suggest that economy wide rebound effects are larger than is conventionally assumed and that energy plays a more important role in driving productivity improvements and economic growth than is conventionally assumed

the effects of extended unemployment insurance over the business cycle evidence from regression discontinuity estimates over 20 years one goal of extending the duration of unemployment insurance ui in recessions is to increase ui coverage in the face of longer unemployment spells although it is a common concern that such extensions may themselves raise nonemployment durations it is not known how recessions would affect the magnitude of this moral hazard to obtain causal estimates of the differential effects of ui in booms and recessions this article exploits the fact that in germany potential ui benefit duration is a function of exact age which is itself invariant over the business cycle we implement a regression discontinuity design separately for 20 years and correlate our estimates with measures of the business cycle we find that the nonemployment effects of a month of additional ui benefits are at best somewhat declining in recessions yet the ui exhaustion rate and therefore the additional coverage provided by ui extensions rises substantially during a downturn the ratio of these two effects represents the nonemployment response of workers weighted by the probability of being affected by ui extensions hence our results imply that the effective moral hazard effect of ui extensions is significantly lower in recessions than in booms using a model of job search with liquidity constraints we also find that in the absence of market wide effects the net social benefits from ui extensions can be expressed either directly in terms of the exhaustion rate and the nonemployment effect of ui durations or as a declining function of our measure of effective moral hazard copyright 2012 oxford university press

limits to substitution between ecosystem services and manufactured goods and implications for social discounting this paper examines implications of limits to substitution for estimating substitutability between ecosystem services and manufactured goods and for social discounting based on a model that accounts for a subsistence requirement in the consumption of ecosystem services we provide empirical evidence on substitution elasticities we find an initial mean elasticity of substitution of two which declines over time towards complementarity we subsequently extend the theory of dual discounting by introducing a subsistence requirement the relative price of ecosystem services is non constant and grows without bound as the consumption of ecosystem services declines towards the subsistence level an application suggests that the initial discount rate for ecosystem services is more than a percentage point lower as compared to manufactured goods this difference increases by a further half percentage point over a 300 year time horizon the results underscore the importance of considering limited substitutability in long term public project appraisal

what works a meta analysis of recent active labor market program evaluations we summarize the estimates from over 200 recent studies of active labor market programs we classify the estimates by type of program and participant group and distinguish between three different post program time horizons using regression models for the estimated program effect for studies that model the probability of employment and for the sign and significance of the estimated effect for all the studies in our sample we conclude that 1 average impacts are close to zero in the short run but become more positive 2 3 years after completion of the program 2 the time profile of impacts varies by type of program with larger average gains for programs that emphasize human capital accumulation 3 there is systematic heterogeneity across participant groups with larger impacts for females and participants who enter from long term unemployment 4 active labor market programs are more likely to show positive impacts in a recession

financial markets and wages we study a labor market equilibrium model in which flrms sign optimal long term contracts with workers firms that are flnancially constrained ofier an increasing wage proflle they pay lower wages today in exchange of higher wages once they become unconstrained and operate at a larger scale in equilibrium constrained flrms are on average smaller and pay lower wages in this way the model generates a positive relation between flrm size and wages using data from the national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy we show that the key dynamic properties of the model are supported by the data jel classiflcation g31 j31 e24

income treatment effects in contingent valuation the case of the swedish predator policy this paper provides case study evidence on two relevant issues in estimating the relationship between wtp and income using contingent valuation 1 the choice of income measure and 2 the modelling choice addressing these issues a sensitivity analysis is performed on a dataset concerning implementation of the swedish predator policy the results show that the estimated income elasticity of wtp varies between 0 12 and 0 40 for the models estimated the main conclusion drawn from the analysis is that controlling for the number of adults in the household is important for finding a significant income effect when the household income measure is used besides this finding the empirical analysis finds little support for the hypothesis that the choice of income measure and modelling assumptions significantly influence the overall model fit

the ecology of natural capital accounting natural capital is increasingly widely discussed and included in corporate and governmental accounts using a variety of different approaches and metrics here i argue that natural capital is fundamentally an emergent feature of structures and functions of the natural environment therefore its valuation and metrics for reporting on its condition and the way that it is represented in accounts need to reflect these defining features and not rest solely on measurable flows of goods and services natural capital is an asset and its many contributions to the economy and society often called ecosystem services are both malleable and adaptable their value changes with time and context as they become more or less important and relevant for particular purposes unlike most produced assets natural assets are multifunctional adaptable and resilient and within limits they have the capacity to regrow or reorganize themselves maintaining this capacity is therefore the key priority for a responsible owner or manager of natural assets currently most metrics for natural capital are based on the quality or quantity of flows of goods and services on the geographical distribution of particular ecosystems or land sea uses and by reference to ecosystem services delivered by particular ecosystems the advantages and disadvantages of these different approaches are discussed but i propose instead using the quality of fundamental ecological processes and functions which properly represent the functioning and capabilities of the natural capital system upon which society and the economy depend

factor endowments inequality and paths of development among new world economies whereas traditional explanations of differences in long run paths of development across the americas generally point to the significance of differences in national heritage or religion we highlight the relevance of stark contrasts in the degree of inequality in wealth human capital and political power in accounting for how fundamental economic institutions evolved over time we argue moreover that the roots of these disparities in the extent of inequality lay in differences in the initial factor endowments dating back to the era of european colonization we document through comparative studies of suffrage public land and schooling policies systematic patterns by which societies in the americas that began with more extreme inequality or heterogeneity in the population were more likely to develop institutional structures that greatly advantaged members of elite classes and disadvantaging the bulk of the population by providing them with more political influence and access to economic opportunities the clear implication is that institutions should not be presumed to be exogenous economists need to learn more about where they come from to understand their relation to economic development our findings not only contribute to our knowledge of why extreme differences in the extent of inequality across new world economies have persisted for centuries but also to the study of processes of long run economic growth past and present

income and wealth heterogeneity in the macroeconomy how do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy we analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity our main finding is that in the stationary stochastic equilibrium the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution this result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification our benchmark model whose only difference from the representative agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk displays far less cross sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than u s data however an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data furthermore this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior

the consequences of persistent inequality on social capital a municipal level analysis of blood donation data this paper advances the hypothesis that persistent inequality affects cultural traits and undermines social capital we use blood donation data at the local level in southern spain to document that indeed persistent inequality as measured by land inequality negatively affects blood donation which indicates that it harms social capital this evidence sheds new light into the debates on the consequences of inequality and the determinants of culture

the concept and measurement of subsistence a survey of the literature abstract subsistence is a widely used concept but most of the time its precise meaning is not property stated this study attempts to provide an appropriate exposition of the concept by examining the manner in which it is used and the role it plays in different theoretical analyses and policy formulations it has been shown that contrary to the conventional notion of a minimum standard of physical needs only subsistence is an absolute minimum standard of physical and mental survival and productive efficiency the lowest standard of social desirability is given by the needs of physical and mental survival in addition to these the standard of subsistence includes the needs of physical and mental efficiency for productive living in the society the attainment of a certain minimum of physical mental and social magnitudes provides the standard of subsistence commodities or their characteristics are the needs of this standard income by providing the command over these needs affords an individual the capability to attain it hence income is used to characterize subsistence three different methods of subsistence determination have been identified the most commonly used methods the social and the scientific ones are found to be arbitrary the determination of subsistence from the analysis of the agents declaration or behavior seems to be a better method while the declaration or expenditure based studies suffer from various limitations studies based on the behavior of income earning offer a better direction

environmental goods and the distribution of income the paper presents a theoretical investigation of the distributional impacts of environmental commodities it introduces an appropriate framework defines concepts for measuring benefits and examines the determinants of benefit incidence within this setup its emphasis is on methodology and on recognizing the relevant economic variables and information it turns out that in an equal preference model the magnitude of the income elasticity of marginal willingness to pay for an environmental good is the crucial variable determining progressivity it is related to a number of other elasticities which are more easily accessible to an empirical estimation

unemployment fluctuations over the life cycle abstract in this paper we show that i the volatility of worker flows increases with age in us cps data and ii a search and matching model with life cycle features endogenous separation and search effort is well suited to explain this fact with a shorter horizon on the labor market older workers outside options become less responsive to new employment opportunities thereby making their wages less sensitive to the business cycle their job finding and separation rates are then more volatile along the business cycle the horizon effect cannot explain the significant differences between prime age and young workers as both age groups are far away from retirement a lower bargaining power on the youth labor market brings the model closer to the data

valuing the invaluable how much is the planet worth this article explores the valuation of natural capital by critically analysing alternative approaches to it it considers the problems associated with applying economic values to natural capital and the limitations of such exercises it examines different methods that are more familiar to accountants than economists of using what is sometimes termed an engineering approach to estimating the costs of maintaining and restoring existing assets it considers the arguments that are used to justify the two in particular it addresses the question of what we are seeking to do by determining the value of natural capital what is the question to which valuation is supposed to be the answer

inequality does cause underdevelopment insights from a new instrument consistent with the provocative hypothesis of engerman and sokoloff 1997 2000 this paper confirms with cross country data that agricultural endowments predict inequality and inequality predicts development the use of agricultural endowments specifically the abundance of land suitable for growing wheat relative to that suitable for growing sugarcane as an instrument for inequality is this paper s approach to problems of measurement and endogeneity of inequality the paper finds inequality also affects other development outcomes institutions and schooling which the literature has emphasized as mechanisms by which higher inequality lowers per capita income it tests the inequality hypothesis for development institutional quality and schooling against other recent hypotheses in the literature while finding some evidence consistent with other development fundamentals the paper finds high inequality to independently be a large and statistically significant barrier to prosperity good quality institutions and high schooling

the employment effects of credit market disruptions firm level evidence from the 2008 9 financial crisis this article investigates the effect of bank lending frictions on employment outcomes i construct a new data set that combines information on banking relationships and employment at 2 000 nonfinancial firms during the 2008 9 crisis the article first verifies empirically the importance of banking relationships which imply a cost to borrowers who switch lenders i then use the dispersion in lender health following the lehman crisis as a source of exogenous variation in the availability of credit to borrowers i find that credit matters firms that had precrisis relationships with less healthy lenders had a lower likelihood of obtaining a loan following the lehman bankruptcy paid a higher interest rate if they did borrow and reduced employment by more compared to precrisis clients of healthier lenders consistent with frictions deriving from asymmetric information the effects vary by firm type lender health has an economically and statistically significant effect on employment at small and medium firms but the data cannot reject the hypothesis of no effect at the largest or most transparent firms abstracting from general equilibrium effects i find that the withdrawal of credit accounts for between one third and one half of the employment decline at small and medium firms in the sample in the year

comparative advantage and unemployment worker heterogeneity in productivity and labor supply is introduced into a matching model workers who earn high wages and work high hours are identified as those with strong market comparative advantage high rents from being employed the model is calibrated to match separation job finding and employment in the sipp data the model predicts a big drop in employment for workers with weak comparative advantage during recessions but the data show that workers with strong comparative advantage also display sizable employment fluctuations implying that aggregate employment fluctuations are not explained by the responses of workers with small rents to employment

screening and labor market flows in a model with heterogeneous workers we construct a monetary model in which workers are heterogeneous and productivity is worker specific resulting in time varying deviations between the average productivity of employed and unemployed workers we assume the worker specific component of productivity which we label as the worker s efficiency level is unobservable ex ante by firms and job search is nondirected by interviewing an unemployed worker firms can observe the worker s efficiency level workers with low overall productivity may be interviewed but not hired as firms screen these workers out during the interview process we show that screening amplifies the volatility of the exit rate from unemployment capturing the idea that firms become more selective in a recession reducing the vacancy yield relative to a model with homogeneous levels of efficiency following a negative productivity shock the

wage dispersion over the business cycle abstract in this paper i provide robust evidence that fluctuations in wage dispersion are independent of the business cycle while residual wage dispersion i e dispersion of wages within narrowly defined demographic and skill groups of workers increases during booms and lessens during recessions moreover i show that the procyclical fluctuations in residual wage dispersion are mainly generated by cyclical changes in the upper half of the residual wage distribution

corporate natural capital accounting accounting is an important practical mechanism by which corporations are held to account for their performance and impact this is consequential for corporate responsibility for the conservation of natural capital while there is clear evidence of increasing corporate accounting and reporting with respect to aspects of natural capital however such efforts are at best nascent this is in part because the purpose and meaning of corporate natural capital accounting is not in itself well established and in part because existing institutional structures and incentives do not lend themselves to giving a full account of natural capital impact in this context the paper argues that there is essentially a need for natural capital accounting and reporting systems that serve two distinct purposes the first which is the more likely to be satisfied by existing market structures is oriented towards the informational needs of shareholders and is concerned with supporting a transition towards environmentally sustainable business models the second in contrast acknowledges that a shareholder oriented perspective constrains natural capital to be important if and only if its conservation privately affects shareholders which is unlikely to ensure an accounting that contributes to the conservation of natural capital as an end in itself this second purpose of strengthening corporate natural capital accountability is unlikely to be satisfied within existing market structures instead it stands in need of a regulatory solution

natural capital assets systems and policies natural capital is a concept whose time has come but is in danger of being greenwashed to suit vested interests as has happened to sustainability it is a hard concept based upon assets rather than utility natural capital assets provide the foundations for positive freedom by providing for future generations capabilities and choices this is especially the case for renewable natural capital which can provide nature s bounty forever provided the assets are not driven below critical thresholds natural capital assets lend themselves to accounting to balance sheets and risk registers and require capital maintenance cost benefit analysis being partial and on a project by project basis has a limited role since the natural environment comes in systems and is less amenable to marginal analysis three principles are core to the design of natural capital policies these are public goods with public monies polluter pays and compensation in the form of net environmental gain

the consumption of a finite planet well being convergence divergence and the nascent green economy a variety of global metrics indicate the earth has overshot its capacity to supply source and sink resources without substantial negative feedback here the relationship between consumption indicators oil freshwater vehicle and meat consumption gdp mathrm co 2 emissions and well being is analysed latitudinally across 189 countries and longitudinally over 60 years within three affluent countries all latitudinal analyses show the characteristic consumption cliff and affluent uplands shape e g at low per capita gdp life satisfaction increases sharply up the cliff with rising gdp after a threshold well being is independent of gdp across the affluent uplands longitudinal analyses of japan uk and usa since the 1950s show per capita gdp has grown between 3 and 8 fold but mean levels of well being remained unchanged consumption patterns are now converging on those typical in affluent countries indicators for seven baskets of countries affluent north america europe oceania affluent asia fast developing brics and civets high income resource extractors poor with green peaks and the poorest show the factors of consumption between the poorest and affluent 5 to 100 fold and the fast developing and affluent 2 to 10 fold a finite planet cannot resource such convergence one indicator climate change grows more of a concern as evidence emerges yet denial remains strong a priority is to create opportunities for divergent ways of living although material culture has been sought as the means to meet personal well being it has failed both the affluent and poorest a green economy will require human attachments to both place and possessions thus reducing disposal and damage such entanglement produces high affiliation that improves life satisfaction as does much non material consumption as yet most political and economic systems are far from recognising these imperatives though there have been notable policy innovations a shift to a green economy is inevitable it is simply whether it occurs before or after the world becomes locked into severe climate change and other consequences of harm to natural capital

should unemployment insurance vary with the unemployment rate theory and evidence we study how the marginal welfare gain from increasing the unemployment insurance ui bene t level varies over the business cycle we do this by estimating how the moral hazard cost and the consumption smoothing bene t of ui vary with labor market conditions which we identify using variation in the interaction of ui bene t levels with the unemployment rate within u s states over time we nd that the moral hazard cost is procyclical greater when the unemployment rate is relatively low by contrast we do not nd evidence that the consumption smoothing bene t varies with the unemployment rate we use these empirical results to estimate the marginal welfare gain and we nd that it is modest on average but varies positively with the unemployment rate jel h5 j64 j65

state dependence in labor market fluctuations this paper documents state dependence in labor market uctuations using a threshold vector autoregression model tvar we establish that the unemployment rate the job separation rate and the job finding rate exhibit a larger response to productivity shocks during periods with low aggregate productivity a diamond mortensen pissarides model with endogenous job separation and on the job search replicates these empirical regularities well we calibrate the model to match the standard deviation of the job transition rates explained by productivity shocks in the tvar and show that the model explains 88 percent of the state dependence in the unemployment rate 76 percent for the separation rate and 36 percent for the job finding rate the key channel underpinning state dependence in both job separation and job finding rates is the interaction of the firm s reservation productivity level and the distribution of match specific idiosyncratic productivity results are robust across several variations to the baseline model

the impact of minimum wages on labour market transitions we investigate dierences in labour market transition rates in high versus low minimum wage regimes using canadian data spanning 1979 to 2008 the data include consistent questions on job tenure and reason for job separation for the whole period over the same time frame there were over 140 minimum wage changes in canada we nd that higher minimum wages are associated with lower hiring rates but also with lower job separation rates importantly the reduced separation rates are due mainly to reductions in layos occur in the rst 6 months of a job and are present for unskilled workers of all ages our estimates imply that a 10 increase in the minimum wage generates a 3 9 reduction in the layo rate we present a search and matching model that ts with these patterns and test its implications overall our results imply

the contribution of large and small employers to job creation in times of high and low unemployment we document a negative correlation at business cycle frequencies between the net job creation rate of large employers and the level of aggregate unemployment that is much stronger than for small employers the differential growth rate of employment between initially large and small employers has an unconditional correlation of 0 5 with the unemployment rate and varies by about 5 percent over the business cycle we exploit several datasets from the united states denmark and france both repeated cross sections and job flows with employer longitudinal information spanning the last four decades and several business cycles we discuss implications for theories of factor demand jel d22 e23 e32 j23 l25

income inequality and pollution a reassessment of the environmental kuznets curve abstract improvements in some measures of air and water quality can accompany rising per capita income as illustrated by the so called environmental kuznets curve for pollution variables which show such a relationship we hypothesize that a more equitable distribution of power contributes to these outcomes by enhancing the influence on policy of those who bear the costs of pollution relative to the influence of those who benefit from pollution generating activities an empirical analysis of international variations in seven indicators of air and water quality supports this hypothesis literacy political rights and civil liberties are found to have particularly strong effects on environmental quality in low income countries

are ecosystem services replaceable by technology this paper assesses the evidence for and against the view that the processes that deliver ecosystem services are so fundamental within ecosystems that neither the services themselves nor the goods that they deliver to humans could be replaced technologically i consider cases where the natural processes have been replaced and also the probably more common and usually less invasive cases where they have been enhanced by technological interventions supporting services are probably least amenable to technology with the major exception of nutrient cycling which has been extensively replaced by the use of chemical fertilizers final services offer more examples of actual or potential replacement including the highly controversial example of geoengineering for climate regulation finally there are numerous examples of replacement technologies for environmental goods especially in the case of energy fossil and many renewable fuels fibres artificial fibres and biochemicals industrial pharmaceuticals the full economic costs of replacement technologies have rarely been explored and in some cases it appears that the replacement is more expensive than the natural service enhancement technologies in contrast supplement the output of ecosystem services and are probably in most cases more benign the doubts about true costs and the fact that many supporting and final services seem either irreplaceable or only replaceable at huge cost adds to the need to protect them

upskilling do employers demand greater skill when workers are plentiful using a proprietary database of online job postings we find that education and experience requirements rose during the great recession these increases were larger in states and occupations that e

the role of automatic stabilizers in the u s business cycle most countries have automatic rules in their tax and transfer systems that are partly intended to stabilize economic uctuations this paper measures how eective they are at lowering the volatility of u s economic activity we identify seven potential stabilizers in the data and include four theoretical channels through which they may operate in a business cycle model calibrated to the u s data the model is used to compare the volatility of output in the data with counterfactuals where some or all of the stabilizers are shut down our rst nding is that proportional taxes like sales property and corporate income taxes contribute little to stabilization our second

which countries avoid carbon intensive development abstract this paper explores the underlying development outcomes and cumulative emissions trajectories of 20 middle income countries from eastern europe latin america north africa and south asia first well being outcomes are assessed defined in terms of access to education democratic and legal rights and the infrastructures that support physical health second emissions trajectories are estimated to 2050 taking into account current trends in energy consumption and carbon intensity a likely start date for stringent climate policy arising from the paris agreement 2020 and maximum feasible rates of mitigation comparing these estimates to a per capita allocation from the global carbon budget associated with 2 c ten countries have low carbon development trends that will not exceed their allocation of these costa rica and uruguay are achieving very high well being outcomes while many more are delivering good outcomes in at least two domains of human need however most are seriously deficient in terms of social well being education democratic and legal rights these results call into question the socio economic convergence of developing countries with industrialised countries but they also reaffirm the low emissions cost of extending good infrastructure access and physical health outcomes to all demonstrated by the existence of multiple countries that continue to avoid carbon intensive development

the shadow margins of labor market slack we use a mix of new and existing data to develop the aggregate hours gap ahg a novel measure of labor market underutilization our measure differentiates individuals by detailed categories of labor market participation and uses data on their desired work hours as a measure of their potential labor supply we show that desired hours vary widely by demographics and detailed labor force status and that the gap between desired and actual work hours is strongly positively correlated with reported search effort the aggregate hours gap suggests a more sluggish labor market recovery since the great recession than either the official unemployment rate or alternative measures of labor market underutilization modest amounts of underutilization among the part time employed and a substantial degree of underutilization among those out of the labor force account for the disparity the aggregate hours gap also does well in accounting for wage movements over our sample period

importance and threat as determining factors for criticality of natural capital abstract an important issue in the debate about the use and conservation of natural ecosystems is the degree to which these ecosystems and their functions should be considered critical this paper presents some guidelines to determine the criticality of natural capital based on two main criteria the first criterion is the importance of natural ecosystems ecological socio cultural and economic and the second is the degree of threat based on the quantity and quality of the remaining natural areas in a given region it is argued that the two criteria are complementary and need to be taken into account simultaneously when determining the criticality of natural capital finally the paper presents and discusses some possibilities for the development of a critical natural capital index for europe

unemployment fluctuations match quality and the wage cyclicality of new hires we revisit the issue of the high cyclicality of wages of new hires we show that after controlling for composition effects likely involving procyclical upgrading of job match quality the wages of new hires are no more cyclical than those of existing workers the key implication is that the sluggish behaviour of wages for existing workers is a better guide to the cyclicality of the marginal cost of labour than is the high measured cyclicality of new hires wages unadjusted for composition effects key to our identification is distinguishing between new hires from unemployment versus those who are job changers we argue that to a reasonable approximation the wages of the former provide a composition free estimate of the wage flexibility while the same is not true for the latter we then develop a quantitative general equilibrium model with sticky wages via staggered contracting on the job search and heterogeneous match quality and show that it can account for both the panel data evidence and aggregate evidence on labour market volatility

downward nominal wage flexibility real or measurement error this paper presents a new method to correct for measurement error in wage data and applies this method to address an old question how much downward wage flexibility is there in the united states we apply standard methods developed by bai and perron to identify structural breaks in time series data applying these methods to wage histories allows us to identify when each person experiences a change in nominal wages the length of the period of constant nominal wages is left unrestricted and is allowed to differ across individuals as are the size and direction of the nominal wage change we apply these methods to data from the survey of income and program participation the evidence we provide indicates that the probability of a cut in nominal wages is substantially overstated in data that are not corrected for measurement error