public research and industrial innovations in germany this paper deals with the effects of publicly funded research at universities polytechnics and federal research labs on industrial innovations in germany we discuss the characteristics of companies that benefit from the findings of public research institutions in questioning 2 300 companies we found that less than one tenth of product or process innovating firms introduced innovations between 1993 and 1995 that would not have been developed without public research these new products amount to approximately 5 percent of all new product sales regressions show that firms own r d support the ability to absorb the findings of public research and turn them into innovations contrary to the widely held opinion that proximity to public research institutions does promote collaboration between firms and public research and increase the amount of received knowledge spillovers we found no higher probability of publicly supported innovations for firms in germany that are located near universities or polytechnics

the role of price and nonprice factors in predicting australia s trade performance this article investigates the role of price and nonprice factors in predicting australia s trade performance results broadly suggest that australia s trade performance is largely explained by the

models of inflation expectations formation a comparison of household and economist forecasts the recent appreciation of the critical role played by expectations of inflation in the behavior of macromodels has stimulated empirical studies of the formation of expectations by different groups time series survey data on expectations of inflation exist now for economists households and businesses these data have been used as independent variables in explaining wage behavior gordon 16 turnovsky and wachter 34 and de menil and bhatta 5 prices turnovsky and wachter 34 and wachtel 36 interest rates gibson 14 hendershott and van horne 19 pearce 30 and mishkin 27 and consumption wachtel 36 generally with a significant improvement in explanatory power they have also been used as dependent variables in attempts to determine how expectations are formed by gordon 15 mullineaux 28 jacobs and jones 20 and figlewski and wachtel 9 for the economist survey van duyne 35 for the household survey and leonard 23 and de leeuw and mckelvey 4 for businesses given their different levels of knowlege of economics and perspectives one might expect that the models used by the different groups to forecast inflation would

the impact of technology and structural change on export performance in nine developing countries summary this paper focuses on nine large developing countries structural decomposition analysis shows that they tend to concentrate innovative activities in industries stagnating at the world level international trends partly offset national improvements in patent shares the same occurs for world export shares although countries display greater adaptation to world demand econometric analysis suggests that technological activity is related to export gains in high technology sectors if a country expands in industries with increasing technological opportunities in medium technology sectors if it moves away from low opportunity sectors in low technology sectors if it is initially specialized in growing sectors in high tech and low tech sectors export performance is also affected by the growth of technical capabilities foreign direct investments productivity and the initial level of technical skills and in medium tech by the growth rates of foreign direct investments

the relationships between science technologies and their industrial exploitation an illustration through the myths and realities of the so called european paradox abstract this paper discusses first the properties of scientific and technological knowledge and the institutions supporting its generation and its economic applications the evidence supports the broad interpretation that we call the stanford yale sussex synthesis second such patterns yield important implications with respect to the so called european paradox i e the conjecture that eu countries play a leading global role in terms of top level scientific output but lag behind in the ability of converting this strength into wealth generating innovations some descriptive evidence shows that contrary to the paradox conjecture europe s weaknesses reside both in its system of scientific research and in a relatively weak industry the final part of the paper identifies a few normative implications much less emphasis should be put on various types of networking and much more on policy measures aimed at strengthening both frontier research and european corporate actors

the effects of federal research and development subsidies on firm commercialization behavior abstract this paper assesses the longer term up to 14 years causal impact of federal research and development r d subsidies on firms commercialization behavior the data are for small firms which applied to the 1998 2000 advanced technology program atp competitions a variant of the research design pioneered by heckman 1979 allows for selection bias to be controlled for commercialization behavior is operationalized as the number of new product announcements related to the technology a firm mentions in its atp proposal s the major finding is that receiving an atp award has a positive and significant causal impact on a firm s commercialization behavior

science dependence of technologies evidence from inventions and their inventors abstract articulating a compelling economic rationale to justify investments in research by definition furthest removed from direct immediate economic benefit is perhaps one of chief challenges of r d managers policy makers and science analysts in the years ahead although several innovation studies and surveys have provided some convincing empirical evidence of impacts and benefits of research to technical progress there is still an urgent need for comprehensive models reliable data and analytical tools to describe and monitor links between r d and industrial innovation in more detail as for the role of scientific and engineering research in the innovation process this paper reports on the findings of a novel methodology to increase our understanding of the contribution of research efforts to successful technical inventions the approach is based on a nation wide mail survey amongst inventors working in the corporate sector and the public research sector in the netherlands the inventors inside information regarding their patented inventions and related technological innovations on the market provided a range of quantitative data on the importance of the underpinning research activities statistical models attempting to explain the degree of science dependence of the inventions identify a range of relevant variables covering the inventor s own capabilities and previous r d achievements external information sources as well as the inventor s r d environment in general some 20 of the private sector innovations turned out to be partially based on public sector research furthermore citations in patents referring to basic research literature were found to be invalid indictors of a technology s science dependence

inflation dynamics when inflation is near zero this paper discusses the likely evolution of u s inflation in the near and medium term on the basis of 1 past u s experience with very low levels of inflation 2 the most recent japanese experience with deflation and 3 recent u s micro evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity our findings question the view that stable long run inflation expectations and downward nominal wage rigidity will provide sufficient support to prices such that deflation can be avoided we show that an inflation model fitted on japanese data over the past 20 years which accounts for both short and long run inflation expectations matches the recent u s inflation experience quite well while the model indicates that u s inflation might be subject to a lower bound it does not rule out a prolonged period of mild deflation going forward in addition our micro evidence on wages suggests no obvious downward rigidity in the firm s wage costs downward rigidity in individual wages notwithstanding as a consequence downward nominal wage rigidity may provide little offset to deflationary pressures in the current u s situation despite some circumstantial evidence that this channel might have been at work in the past

habit formation in consumption and its implications for monetary policy models this paper explores a monetary policy model with habit formation for consumers in which consumers utility depends in part on current consumption relative to past consumption the empirical tests developed in the paper show that one can reject the hypothesis of no habit formation with tremendous condence largely because the habit formation model captures the gradual hump shaped response of real spending to various shocks the paper then embeds the habit consumption specication in a monetary policy model and nds that the responses of both spending and inflation to monetary policy actions are signicantly improved by this modication jel d12 e52 e43

the economic impacts of academic spin off companies and their implications for public policy abstract the importance of academic research ar to economic growth is widely accepted but quantification of incremental impacts and their attribution to any one country s expenditures is difficult yet quantitative justification of government ar funding is highly desirable we therefore attempt to quantify one impact which can be directly and causally attributed to one country s funding spin off companies we focus on ar in the non medical natural sciences and engineering nsexm in a whole country canada applied disciplines are sometimes assumed to be the most commercializable so we also separately investigate an especially basic science physics using a novel methodology we estimate the lifetime impacts of companies spun off directly from ar performed in 1960 1998 and compare the impacts with all government funding direct and indirect over the same period this picks up virtually all funding and most company formation since wwii up to 1998 such long term studies are rare but essential since we show that successful spin offs grow often exponentially over several decades with very conservative assumptions and allowing for the time value of money the impacts exceed government funding by a substantial margin physics actually fares 30 60 better than the combined nsexm this reflects more successful companies rather than greater numbers and therefore does not seem inconsistent with earlier studies on company numbers firm lifetimes are long with canadian impacts truncated primarily by some foreign acquisitions we argue that the spin off impacts represent incremental contributions to gdp much larger even on a time discounted basis than the government funding and directly attributable to it governments will also receive more in additional tax than they spent the impacts therefore provide a quantitative justification for the public investment allowing the much more important but less quantifiable long term benefits to be regarded as a free bonus the very good showing of physics also suggests that reduced emphasis on basic work or on the basic disciplines could actually weaken the commercialization of ar

university start up formation and technology licensing with firms that go public a resource based view of academic entrepreneurship abstract although academic entrepreneurship is a topic receiving some attention in the literature higher education s appetite for expanding technology transfer activities suggests that more research is needed to inform practice this study investigates the effects of particular resource sets on two university commercialization activities the number of start up companies formed and the number of initial public offering ipo firms to which a university had previously licensed a technology utilizing multisource data on 120 universities and a resource based view of the firm framework a set of university financial human capital and organizational resources were found to be significant predictors of one or both outcomes

regional co evolution of firm population innovation and public research evidence from the west german laser industry abstract we trace the co evolution of regional firm population sizes private sector patenting and public research in german laser research and manufacturing for over 40 years from the emergence of the industry to the mid 2000s qualitative as well as quantitative evidence suggests a co evolutionary process of mutual interdependence rather than a unidirectional effect of public research on private sector activities

on the sources of technological change assessing the evidence this paper uses a selective review of the economic literature on technological change to support four points that are important for interpreting and incorporating technological change into formal models of energy and the environment the review 1 supports the notion that no single source dominates the process of technological change it supports roles for rd 3 indicates that these spillovers are often indirect requiring own industry activities to utilize and 4 indicates that simple experience curve calibrations often used in formal models likely include a range of sources of technological change in addition to learning by doing some of which might not be induced by the sorts of policies typically considered in the climate context

why do firms do basic research with their own money abstractthe question to be addressed is why do private firms perform basic research with their own money interest in this question derives from both analytical and utilitarian considerations there is empirical evidence in the united states which provides the main context for this paper supporting the view that basic research makes a significant contribution to the productivity growth of the economy 4 7 it is widely held that social returns from basic research are significant and higher than private returns and it is for this reason that most such activities continue to be financed by the taxpayer this also implies that measures aimed at increasing basic research by the private sector will be welfare improving in the united states the federal government in the years since the second world war has provided the vast majority of all funds devoted to basic research although the federal share has been declining in recent years and although that share is at its lowest level in about 20 years it still constitutes about two thirds of the total 10 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

monetary policy trade offs and the correlation between nominal interest rates and real output the authors present a structural model of the u s economy that combines their price contracting specification with a term structure relationship an aggregate demand curve and a monetary policy reaction function the model matches important features of postwar data well and provides a structural explanation of the correlation between real output and the short term nominal rate of interest the authors perform a battery of monetary policy experiments that show that as viewed through the lens of this model monetary policy has struck a good balance recently among competing monetary policy objectives copyright 1995 by american economic association

the technological competencies of the world s largest firms complex and path dependent but not much variety firm specific technological competencies help explain why firms are different how they change over time and whether or not they are capable of remaining competitive data on more than 400 of the world s largest firms show that their technological competencies have the following characteristics 1 1 they are typically multi field and becoming more so over time with competencies ranging beyond their product range in technical fields outside their distinctive core 2 2 they are highly stable and differentiated with both the technology profile and the directions of localised search strongly influenced by firms principal products 3 3 the rate of search is influenced by both the firm s principal products and the conditions in its home country however considerable unexplained variance suggests scope for managerial choice these findings confirm the importance of complexity and path dependency in the accumulation of firm specific technological competencies and show that managers are heavily constrained in the directions of their technological search they also show the limits of the notion of competition through variety given that the same specific field of technological competence is often essential to the development of a range of possible product configurations technological imperatives still exist

a technology gap approach to why growth rates differ abstract this paper contains a discussion and test of the technology gap approach to development and growth the basic hypotheses of the theory are tested on pooled cross sectional and time series data for 25 industrial countries for the period 1960 1983 the sample includes in addition to 19 oecd countries 6 of the most important industrial economies from the non oecd area the findings of the paper confirm that there exists a close correlation between the level of economic development measured as gdp per capita and the level of technological development measured through r d or patent statistics furthermore for the group of 25 countries as a whole technology gap models of economic growth are found to explain a large part of the actual differences in growth rates both between countries and periods as expected both the scope for imitation growth in innovative activity and efforts to narrow the gap investment appear as powerful explanatory factors of economic growth however when the non oecd countries and later usa and japan are removed from the sample the explanatory power of the technology variables especially growth in innovative activity diminishes

from market magic to calypso science policy a review of terence kealey s the economic laws of scientific research the current reconsideration of public research funding policies in the u s and u k and other industrialized economies makes it important that policy makers and the public understand the valid economic grounds for government support of science this review article of a book that which argues for the ending of all government support of non military r d provides an occasion to take stock of what is known about the subject the review concludes that the extreme laissez faire science policy arguments adroitly advanced by terrance kealey s book are analytically without foundation and are based upon distortions and misinterpretations of the evidence of economic history as well as on the misuse of econometric methods the problem is that mr kealey is an engaging writer and there still is in some policy circles an audience for his message hence to undo the damage will call for concerted and persistent efforts on the part of economists specializing in the economics of science and technology this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the social shaping of the national science base abstract innovation studies confirm de tocqueville s prediction that continuous technical change in business firms in modern society would require the development in close proximity of publicly funded basic research and associated training the rate and direction of the development of a country s science base is strongly influenced by its level of economic development and the composition of its economic and social activities in other words it is socially shaped

using survey data of inflation expectations in the estimation of learning and rational expectations models do survey data on inflation expectations contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models i address this question by using survey data in the new keynesian model by smets and wouters 2007 to estimate and compare its performance when solved under the assumptions of rational expectations and learning this information serves as an additional moment restriction and helps to determine the forecasting model for inflation that agents use under learning my results reveal that the predictive power of this model is improved when using both survey data and an admissible learning rule for the formation of inflation expectations

trend inflation indexation and inflation persistence in the new keynesian phillips curve purely forward looking versions of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc generate too little inflation persistence some authors add ad hoc backward looking terms to address this shortcoming we hypothesize that inflation per sistence results mainly from variation in the long run trend component of inflation which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy we derive a version of the nkpc that incorporates a time varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflation when drift in trend inflation is taken into account a purely forward looking version of the model fits the data well and there is no need for backward looking components jel e12 e31 e52 in this paper we consider the extent to which guillermo calvo s 1983 model of nominal price rigidities can explain inflation dynamics without relying on arbitrary backward looking terms in its baseline formulation the calvo model leads to a purely forward looking new keynesian

the two faces of market support how deployment policies affect technological exploration and exploitation in the solar photovoltaic industry the recent years have seen a strong rise in policies aiming to increase the diffusion of clean energy technologies while there is general agreement that such deployment policies have been very effective in bringing technologies to the market it is less understood how these policies affect technological innovation to shed more light on this important question we conducted comparative case studies with a global sample of 9 firms producing solar photovoltaic pv modules complemented by in depth interviews with 16 leading pv industry experts we propose that on the one hand policy induced market growth serves as an important catalyst for innovative activity as it raises the absolute level of firm investments in technological exploration on the other hand however deployment policies create an incentive for firms pursuing more mature technologies to shift their balance between exploitation and exploration toward exploitation firms focusing on less mature technologies cannot tap the potentials of exploitative learning to the same extent as those with more mature technologies therefore stimulating strong market growth may raise the barrier to market entry for less mature technologies we conclude that when designing deployment policies great care should be taken to avoid adverse effects on technological diversity and a premature lock in into more established technologies

heart of darkness modeling public private funding interactions inside the r d black box abstract this paper is a first step toward closing the analytical gap in the extensive literature on the results of interactions between public and private r d expenditures and their joint effects on the economy a survey focusing on econometric studies in this area reveals a plethora of sometimes confusing and frequently contradictory estimates of the response of company financed r d to changes in the level and nature of this category of public expenditures yet a theoretical framework seldom is provided within which the empirical results are to be interpreted some such structure is necessary in view of the multiple channels through which public research can affect private r d performance especially as not all the effects flow in the same direction a major cause of inconsistencies in the empirical literature is the failure to recognize key differences among the various policy experiments being considered depending upon the economy in which they are embedded and the type of public sector r d spending that is contemplated using a simple stylized structural model we identify the main channels of impact of public r d we thus can characterize the various effects distinguishing between short and long run impacts that would show up in simple regression analyses of nominal public and private r d expenditure variables within the context of our simple model it is possible to offer interpretations that shed light on recent cross section and panel data findings at both high i e national and low specific technology area levels of aggregation

the balancing item in australia s balance of payments accounts an impressionistic view the balancing item in the australian balance of payments has been increasing in magnitude and volatility violating with increasing frequency internationally agreed acceptability criteria of smallness this investigation examines the temporal evolution of the balancing item identifying structural breaks that are plausible a priori it also explores alternative data driven and structural approaches to the diagnosis of the errors and omissions in the statistical record

models of inflation expectations formation a comparison of household and economist forecasts comment in the third section of his paper models of inflation expectations formation a comparison of household and economist forecasts gramlich 1983 presents statistics suggesting that two survey measures of inflation expectations are biased and inefficient in this comment we show that the main results presented in his table 1 are generated using a misspecified model when the specification error is corrected we find that the michigan survey of household inflation expectations passes the standard tests for unbiasedness and weak tests for efficiency 1 however there remains doubt about the properties of the inflation expectation series derived from the livingston survey of professional economists 2 the particular results we review were presumably generated from ordinary leastsquares ols estimation of the following equation equation 2 in gramlich

what makes basic research economically useful abstract economic analysis has helped us understand the strong economic dimension in the explosive growth of science and more recently the reasons for continuing public subsidies however the growing domination of the market failure approach has led to the analytical neglect of two major questions for policy makers how does science contribute to technology are the technological benefits from science increasingly becoming international on the former too much attention has been devoted to the relatively narrow range of scientific fields producing knowledge with direct technological applications and too little to the much broader range of fields the skills of which contribute to most technologies on the latter national systems of science and of technology remain closely coupled in most major countries in spite of the technological activities of large multinational firms empirical research is needed on concentration scale and efficiency in the performance of basic research where techniques and insights from the applied economics of industrial r d are of considerable relevance there is no convincing evidence so far of unexploited economies of scale in basic research this evidence shows that many policies for greater selectivity and concentration in basic research have been misconceived economists and other social scientists could help by formulating more persuasive justifications for public subsidy for basic research and by making more realistic assumptions about the nature of science and technology

academic research underlying industrial innovations there has been no systematic study of the characteristics of the universities and academic researchers that seem to have contributed most to industrial innovation nor do we know how such academic research has been funded this paper based on data obtained from sixty six firms in seven major manufacturing industries and from over two hundred academic researchers sheds new light on the sources characteristics and financing of academic research underlying industrial innovation the findings should be of interest to economists concerned with technological change and to policymakers attempting to increase the economic payoff from the nation s academic research copyright 1995 by mit press

new light on the impressionistic view of the balancing item in australia s balance of payments accounts recently fausten and brooks offered what they refer to as an impressionistic view of the temporal evolution of australia s balancing item which is a measure of the accuracy of the balance of payments accounts they claim that the balancing item has been increasing in magnitude and volatility violating with increasing frequency internationally agreed acceptability criteria for smallness in the present paper it is shown that fausten and brooks results derive from data that incorporates excessively a dynamically asymmetric concentration of revisions and is therefore unsuitable for statistical analysis this paper develops and empirically evaluates a model of the process of revisions of balance of payments data this model illustrates that dynamically inconsistent time series of the balancing item such as that employed by fausten and brooks are bound to generate an artificial impression that it follows an explosive time trend subsequently it is illustrated that when alternative dynamically c

impacts of grants and contracts on academic researchers interactions with industry abstract based on a representative national sample of 1564 academic researchers we investigate the impacts of research grants and contracts on the nature and extent of faculty research and technology activities with industry a particular focus is on understanding the independent contributions of industry and government grant sources on levels of industrial involvement in addition to examining the source of grants the study controls for a number of independent factors including scientific field research center affiliation tenure status and gender results suggest independent effects of grants and contracts on industrial activities grants and contracts from industry have a significant effect on academic researchers propensity to work with industry as measured by an industrial involvement scale federally sponsored grants also have an impact in increasing work with industry but a more moderate one further those with more grants and contracts of each type have a greater propensity for industrial involvement than those who have such contracts but fewer this holds even when proxies for productivity and career stage are introduced in regression equations the analysis also considers whether provision of grants and contracts is best viewed as a predictor of industrial involvement or just another type of industrial involvement using factor analysis and nested multivariate modeling to compare effects

in search of the european paradox an international comparison of europe s scientific performance and knowledge flows in information and communication technologies research abstract this article deals with the scientific performance of the european union eu in what is now perhaps the most important enabling technology worldwide information and communication technologies ict the performance measures are based on the stock and flows of scientific knowledge embodied in research papers published in international scientific and technical journals quantitative data derived from these papers are used to examine and compare the performance of the eu science base with the us and japan two leading scientific nations in ict research and major competitors in ict industries these bibliometric indicators characterize and compare these three ict research bases in terms of research output international scientific quality transnational knowledge flows and domestic and international cooperation patterns the analysis focuses on the key issue whether or not these data bear evidence of the perceived european paradox which is among others characterized by a strong eu public sector science base coupled to a relatively weak r d performance of eu firms the findings provide empirical confirmation for the existence of this paradox in both ict research domains under investigation computers and data processing and telecommunications

endogenous technological change and the new keynesian model this paper develops and estimates a new keynesian nk model with endogenous technology it shows that introducing endogenous technology can solve three important puzzles faced by conventional nk m

knowledge interactions between universities and industry in austria sectoral patterns and determinants the relationship between university and industry is a complex and heterogeneous phenomenon and an important topic of the recent debate on innovation systems this chapter explores the role of knowledge flows between universities and firms in the austrian national innovation system and provides valuable insights into several dimensions of knowledge flows that are not typically explored in research on this topic the patterns of interaction between 46 different fields of science and 49 economic sectors represent an important and interesting outcome of the analysis left censored tobit models are used to evaluate the effect of sector specific and science field specific characteristics upon the probability of knowledge interaction disaggregated by type of interaction

inflation expectations in euro area phillips curves abstract we analyze the information content of alternative inflation expectations measures including those from consumers firms experts and financial markets in the context of open economy phillips curves we adopt a thick modeling approach with rolling regressions and we assess the results of an out of sample conditional forecasting exercise by means of meta regressions the information content varies substantially across inflation expectations measures in particular we find that those from consumers and firms are better at predicting inflation if compared to those from experts and especially those from financial markets

inventor moral hazard in university licensing the role of contracts abstract we examine commonly observed forms of payment such as milestones royalties or consulting contracts as ways of engaging inventors in the development of licensed inventions our theoretical model shows that when milestones are feasible royalties are not optimal unless the licensing firm is risk averse the model also predicts the use of consulting contracts which improve the firm s ability to monitor inventor effort because these contracts increase the firm s expected profits the upfront fee that the university can charge is higher than otherwise these results therefore support the commonly observed university policy of allowing faculty to consult with licensing firms outside of their university contracts they also support firm policies of including milestones an empirical analysis based on a survey of 112 businesses that license in university inventions supports the complementarity of milestones and consulting suggested by the theory

how large is the swedish academic sector really a critical analysis of the use of science and technology indicators sweden is perceived to be top ranking and a role model in terms of its volume of academic r d this perception is based on analyses using two standard indicators we assess the validity of these and argue that institutional features skew the result in favour of a high ranking swedish academic r d is more appropriately characterised as average or below average in terms of input and above average in terms of output science policy makers need to acknowledge this and devise policies that strengthen rather than threaten the functioning of an efficient system c 2004 published by elsevier b v

on the sources and significance of interindustry differences in technological opportunities abstract the set of technological opportunities in a given industry is one of the fundamental determinants of technical advance in that line of business we examine the concept of technological opportunity and discuss three categories of sources of those opportunities advances in scientific understanding and technique technological advances originating in other industries and in other private and governmental institutions and feedbacks from an industry s own technological advances data from the yale survey on industrial research and development are used to measure the strength of various sources of technological opportunity and to discern interindustry differences in the importance of these sources we find that interindustry differences in the strength and sources of technological opportunities contribute importantly to explanations of cross industry variation in r d intensity and technological advance

a review of innovation research in tourism abstract over the past two decades there has been increasing focus on the topic of innovation in tourism this article reviews the research contributions various categories of innovation product process managerial marketing and institutional are addressed important determinants of innovation are acknowledged including the role of entrepreneurship technology push and the existence of territorial industry clusters representation of knowledge is also identified as a critical factor for both the occurrence and nature of innovations the review reveals that there is still only limited systematic and comparable empirical evidence of the level of innovative activities and their impacts and wider implications for destinations and national economies an agenda for future research is emerging suggesting that there is quest for both formal quantification and for qualitative studies of the foundations processes implications and policies of innovation in tourism

does government funding complement or substitute private research funding to universities abstract there is growing political pressure on universities to intensify their interaction with industry and to enlarge their own research funding options in a context characterised by increasing constraints on public spending however whether the successful achievement of such a political desired outcome is consistent with a restriction of government funding is not clear and requires further investigation as a matter of fact there is scant empirical evidence on whether and to what extent government funding affects the external funding options available to universities in particular those related to research and consulting activities by using a set of probit and tobit panel data models estimated on financial data for the whole population of italian university departments engaged in research in the engineering and physical sciences this paper provides evidence that government funding to universities complements funding from research contracts and consulting contributing to increasing universities collaboration with industry and activating knowledge transfer processes

macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data instead m acroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are rational this paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational the model s estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences

patterns of internationalization of spanish innovatory firms abstract the aim of this paper is to contribute to the debate about the factors determining the growing internationalization of small and medium firms originating from intermediate countries the reason for selecting the spanish innovating firms consists of the interest they have for analysing the interaction between the characteristics they have as innovatory agents and their behaviour regarding the global economy the paper is developed from the following hypothesis first in the case of firms of countries with a more recent history of opening up to the international economy the patterns of overseas expansion combine different kinds of elements such as factors included in the eclectic theory and tacit components of the company advantages second in the trajectories followed by those firms some accumulative learning patterns can be found the starting point of this research is a previous one carried out on the patterns of technological innovation of spanish innovatory firms on this basis i have combined two sources for obtaining relevant data the first consists of the creation of a data bank of innovatory firms with 814 innovating companies the second source is a survey carried out with those firms the statistical analysis is made through the application of discriminant analysis and logit models they are good tools for systematic comparison between clusters and allow me to follow a stepwise method for a close study of increasing complex international activity

inflation announcements and social dynamics this paper investigates the eectiveness of central bank communication when rms have heterogeneous ination expectations that are updated through social dynamics the bank s credibility evolves with these dynamics and determines how well its announcements anchor expectations we show that trying to eliminate high ination by abruptly introducing a low ination target can lead to short term overshooting

global and domestic utilization of industrial relevant science patent citation analysis of science technology interactions and knowledge flows abstract the development of science based technologies may draw heavily on codified and tacit outputs from both domestic research bases and foreign sources having a view of the scientific underpinnings of these technical innovations and related knowledge diffusion and utilization processes especially those concerning public financed basic research is of major importance to policymakers nowadays some of those scientific and technical inputs are pivotal to technical inventions and are acknowledged as such by explicit references citations to related research papers in the reference list on the corresponding patents this case study deals with citations to dutch authored research papers on uspto patents granted during the period 1987 1996 results of the citation analysis reveal several important features of contributions made by the dutch science base to dutch invented and or foreign invented patents such as 1 a marked overall increase of patent citations to dutch research papers and 2 significant differences between domestic and foreign citation patterns where 3 domestic citation links are dominated by author inventor self citations and patents originating from the large r d intensive multinational firms such as philips these findings provide new empirical evidence that patent citation analysis produces systemic quantitative data providing strategic background information regarding nation specific and sector specific factors in domestic and cross border science technology linkages and knowledge flows

expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model abstract embedding survey expectations in a standard dsge model helps to identify key slope parameters in standard relationships dramatically reduces the need for lagged dependent variables often motivated by price indexation and habit formation and obviates the need for autocorrelated structural shocks in the key equations formal statistical tests demonstrate that much of the persistence in aggregate data is better accounted for by slow moving expectations rather than by habits indexation and autocorrelated structural shocks

causal relationships between public sector agricultural research expenditures and output allocative decisions concerning public sector agricultural research appear to be driven by both supply and politically mediated demand forces in sample granger tests along with post sample predictive tests suggest that simultaneity issues should not be ignored when modeling the research expenditure output relationship the results also provide strong evidence that the impact of research expenditures on agricultural output may persist for as long as thirty years these lags are substantially longer than those commonly used for agricultural research to date the lagged effect of output on research appears to be shorter though still between ten and twelve years in this article we analyze the empirical relationship between public sector agricultural research and agricultural output our interest in this question was spurred on two fronts first emphasis of the contemporary economic literature has shifted from an analysis of the consequences of technical change to an explanation of the observed rate and direction of inventive activity a substantial proportion of this literature has focused on appropriable technologies originating in the private sector and remained largely silent on related issues in the public sector here we analyze the dynamics of public sector research in particular publicly sponsored agricultural research in the

inflation dynamics the role of expectations the modelling of expectations and its degree of backward looking behaviour are issues of main concern in the in ation dynamics research agenda one approach in the literature is to use expectations from surveys as an approximation to actual expectations this method avoids particular assumptions on expectations and their degree of rationality we estimate the phillips curve allowing for a simultaneous role of rational and survey expectations we formulate both a generalization of the usual phillips curve and a structural version in the spirit of gal and gertler 1999 we flnd that marginal cost determines in ation while the role of detrended output appears to be problematic we also flnd that survey expectations are an important component of in ation dynamics but they do not fully re ect economic agents rationality a signiflcant level of rationality is found even when controlling for survey expectations jel classiflcation e31

demand and innovation schmookler re examined schmookler s demand pull hypothesis implying that innovation is a function of market demand has been widely accepted re reading schmookler s invention and economic growth we discover a statistical inadequacy re estimating his cross section results in a different way we find somewhat lower coefficients moreover the direction of causality appears to be far from obvious an independent cross sectional test of the schmookler hypothesis in the netherlands based on r d instead of patent data shows similar results the relationship between indicators of demand and innovation turns out to be generally weaker but in most cases still significant and the results suggest that there is a simultaneous relationship between demand and innovation the latter may be explained by the concept of the innovation multiplier which has implications for macro economic modelling 1 re reading schmookler schmookler s 13 finding of a strong relationship between investment in capital goods users industries and patent applications by capital goods producing sectors has been generally accepted by economists as evidence that patenting is a function of effective demand demand pull hypothesis quite a number of case studies have followed schmookier s seminal work but there have been

food beliefs and food supply chains the impact of religion and religiosity in israel abstract this paper demonstrates that religion and religiosity affect norms which affect food consumption patterns and production heterogeneity and asymmetric information lead to multiple certification channels as well as multiple supply chains major supply chains may address multiple constituencies that are secular or less religious technological change affects norms and thus the food system we obtain these results by analyzing the food systems for meat products in israel where there are three religions jews muslims and christians and people assign themselves three levels of religiosity secular conservative and orthodox israel has multiple kosher and halal certifiers and several specialized supermarket chains for orthodox groups its main supermarket chains serve secular and some conservative segments the immigration of secular jews from russia led to the proliferation of non kosher supply chains and products and increased consumption of pork new technologies and higher incomes led to emergence of fast food chains serving orthodox jews that had previously tended to eat at home

is inflation sticky abstract new keynesian sticky price models predict that monetary policy can affect real variables however they also predict that inflation can be reduced without depressing output or employment in fact bringing down inflation is costly presenting a challenge to the new keynesian model two departures from the new keynesian model predict costly disinflation one assumes sticky inflation rather than sticky prices while the other assumes less than perfectly rational expectations taking into account information from surveys of inflation expectations i find the evidence suggests that inflation is not sticky and that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational

the inevitable limits of eu r d funding abstract the experience of the past 40 years in national policies for and european cooperation in science and technology points to clear conclusions about eu policies first the prevailing notions of technology gaps between europe and japan and the usa notions which have been a driving force in the eu policy for research and technology have been exaggerated however real gaps exist amongst the eu member countries themselves secondly it is unrealistic to expect eu funded r d programmes by themselves to make a substantial difference to the rate and direction of technical change in europe however eu policies for competition and other forms of regulation trade and investment can have a major influence on corporate decisions about technical change it is important for eu innovation policy to promote favourable framework conditions within which business firms are encouraged to improve their technological and related organisational practices

the obsession for competitiveness and its impact on statistics the construction of high technology indicators abstract high technology is a concept much in vogue in oecd countries for it is a symbol of an advanced economy this paper looks at why and how the concept and its indicator acquired such fame it explains that the reason has to do with the fact that the indicator emerged in the context of debates on the competitiveness of countries and their efforts to maintain or improve their positions in world trade the first part looks at the early statistics behind the indicator r d sales statistics developed in official analyses of industrial r d surveys before the 1950s the second part traces the evolution of the r d sales ratio in the 1960s through its use as an indicator of research or technological intensity the third part discusses the internationalization of the indicator via the oecd

the influence of market demand upon innovation a critical review of some recent empirical studies abstract a number of recent empirical studies of technical change at the level of the individual firm have concluded that market demand is the dominant influence upon the innovation process calling forth innovations in market economies the pace of innovation in the private sector heavily influences the growth of national output and productivity and these studies and their conclusions have therefore received much attention having been extensively quoted in discussions of appropriate government policy for the encouragement of innovation this paper reviews a number of these studies and concludes that their findings and the interpretations of their findings in the secondary literature are seriously flawed and in many cases invalid the proposition that market demand governs the innovation process is by no means conclusively demonstrated in these studies and they are therefore inadequate and inappropriate guides for the formulation of policy most of the studies examined employ a working definition of demand factors which is so broad as to embrace a range of possible influences upon innovation which should more properly be classified elsewhere the concept of demand utilized in these studies bears little resemblance to the more restrictive and precise definition of market demand found in economics in addition the phenomena analyzed in these studies are a very heterogeneous lot the studies do not address identical empirical questions and their findings are as a result neither uniform nor unambiguous both demand and supply side influences are crucial to understanding the innovation process and it is the exclusive preoccupation with only one set of these forces which is criticized in this paper some implications of the criticism for government policy toward innovation are discussed in the conclusion

globalisation of knowledge production and regional innovation policy supporting specialized hubs in the bangalore software industry abstract this paper is concerned with the changing role of regional innovation systems and regional policies in supporting the transition of indigenous firms in developing countries from competing on low costs towards becoming knowledge providers in global value chains special attention is paid to policies supporting the emergence and development of the regional innovation system in this transition process regional innovation systems in developing countries have very recently started to be conceptualised as specialized hubs in global innovation and production networks asheim b coenen l vang lauridsen j 2007 face to face buzz and knowledge bases socio spatial implications for learning innovation and innovation policy environment and planning c government and policy 25 5 655 670 chaminade c vang j 2006a innovation policy for small and medium size smes in asia an innovation systems perspective in yeung h ed handbook of research on asian business edward elgar cheltenham maggi c 2007 the salmon farming and processing cluster in southern chile in pietrobello c rabellotti r eds upgrading and governance in clusters and value chains in latin america harvard university press a specialized hub refers to a node in a global value chain that mainly undertakes one or a few of the activities required for the production and development of a given good or service or serves a particular segment of the global market in global value chains firms in developing countries have traditionally been responsible for the lowest added value activities however a few emerging regional innovation systems in developing countries are beginning to challenge this scenario by rapidly upgrading in the value chain there is however still only a poorly developed understanding of how the system of innovation emerges and evolves to support this transition process and what the role of regional innovation policy is in building the regional conditions that support indigenous small and medium size enterprises smes in this transition process this paper aims at reducing this omission by analyzing the co evolution of the strategies of indigenous smes and the regional innovation system of bangalore india

technological capabilities invisible infrastructure and the un social construction of predictability the overlooked fixed costs of useful research the paper explores the idea that unpredictability is a much more pervasive and important feature of technical change than is traditionally supposed it explains how economically important interactions between scientific explanations and technology require the construction of very specific artificially predictable conditions where explanations implications match technologies behaviour the iterative construction of these localised predictable conditions from unpredictable starting materials relies on generates and is made easier by reusable social and physical infrastructure the paper develops a non tautological model of technological capabilities and provides a novel explanation for a range of empirical findings theoretical and policy implications are reported

academic spin off s transfer speed analyzing the time from leaving university to venture for academic spin offs i analyze the length of time between the founder s leaving of academia and the establishment of his firm technology transfer can take place even years after leaving the mother institution a duration analysis reveals that a longer time lag is caused by the necessity of assembling complementary skills either by acquisition by a single founder or by searching for suitable team members furthermore new ventures are established earlier if the intensity of technology transfer is high the founders have access to university infrastructure or received informal support by former colleagues

systems of innovation theory and the changing architecture of agricultural research in africa abstract this paper examines the on going evolution of the organisational architecture of agricultural research in africa once considered a rural backwater populated by agronomists extension agents and farmers agricultural research is now being explicitly placed within global debates about innovation technology institutions and development this is reflected in a growing interest in the use of systems of innovation theory to both understand and reform innovation processes within agriculture the basic argument put forward in the paper is that the conception of a global agricultural research system and associated efforts to create a coordinated multi layered supra national research infrastructure are at odds with both the realities of research at national level and the bio physical and socio economic heterogeneity that characterises rural africa it is suggested that a less directive approach to support for agricultural research is required to allow national characteristics and differences to come to the fore and to give more room for the development of the all important demand side

the microeconomics of manufacturing modernization programs abstract manufacturing modernization programs are designed to improve the competitiveness of small and medium sized manufacturers by accelerating their use of best practice technologies justification for these programs is most often cast in terms of past slow rates of adoption international economic competitiveness and market failures in the provision of information these frameworks however do not adequately address policy and programmatic issues related to program design financing and program evaluation using a microeconomic model based on the firm and industry level effects of these programs we examine the importance of spillover benefits from modernization efforts both horizontal spillovers to rivals of program clients and vertical spillovers to clients customers and the implications for these policy and programmatic issues

analyzing literature based innovation output indicators the italian experience abstract this paper presents the results of a study on the product innovations introduced in the italian market in 1989 and reported in a selected number of trade journals the analysis of data collected by means of this literature based counting procedure confirms that r d oriented industries and large firms do not in italy have a marked competitive advantage in innovation the country appears to be instead characterized by a significant presence of consumer goods industries and small firms in innovation our data indicate a statistically significant association between trade competitiveness and strength in product innovation and show the comparatively higher capacity for product innovation of some of the industries in which italy achieves a positive performance in international trade moreover the presence of spillovers at the regional level from both private and public r d expenditures proves to be positively correlated with the development of product innovations finally small firms with fewer than 50 employees appear to be more innovative than is usually believed to be the case

dynamic inconsistencies counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models a number of recent papers have developed dynamic macroeconomic models that incorporate rational expectations and optimizing foundations while the theoretical motivation behind these models is sound the dynamic implications of many of the specifications that assume rational expectations and optimizing behavior can be seriously at odds with the data for both inflation and real side variables exhibit gradual and hump shaped responses to real and monetary shocks for models that are intended for monetary policy analysis these dynamic shortcomings should be considered quite serious when monetary policy has only short run effects on real variables the inability to approximately capture the short run responses of inflation or real variables to policy shocks makes a model unsuitable for policy analysis this paper identifies a simple feature common to many dynamic specifications for prices and real variables that causes the problem the paper also discusses several potential solutions to the problem including alterations to the expectations assumption to the order of differencing implicit in the model and to the underlying behavioral assumptions this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

inventor networks in renewable energies the influence of the policy mix in germany technological change and gains in efficiency of renewable power generation technologies are to a large extent driven by governmental support various policy instruments that can broadly be categorized as technology push demand pull or systemic constitute part of the policy mix for renewable energies our goal is to gain insights into the influence of this policy mix on the intensity and organization of inventive activities for wind power and photovoltaics in germany since the 1980s we examine the effect of different instruments on the size and structure of co inventor networks based on patent data our results indicate notable differences between the technologies the network size for wind power is driven by technology push and systemic instruments while in photovoltaics demand pull is decisive for network growth by and large the instruments complement each other and form a consistent mix of policy instruments the structure of the networks is driven by demand pull for both technologies systemic instruments increase interaction especially in the wind power network and are complementary to demand pull in fostering collaboration

if star scientists do not patent the effect of productivity basicness and impact on the decision to patent in the academic world abstract we run an event history analysis on a sample of italian researchers in the field of materials science aiming at understanding how the characteristics of the research trajectories followed by scientists in academia affect their opportunities to do development of industrial applications results of our estimates suggest that all measures of academic performances have a dual effect although different in magnitude scientists that are moving along applied research trajectories find it easier to produce industrial applications than their colleagues engaged in the quest for very fundamental understanding we interpret our results by suggesting that for the former more academic research results in more exploitable results hence in more chances to patent for the latter more academic research makes it just more unlikely that they will find the time to produce industrial applications similar results apply for the low versus high research impact

from government to market and from producer to consumer transition of policy mix towards clean mobility in china abstract this paper proposes a new typology that classifies innovation policy instruments into two dimensions government selection versus market selection and producer orientation versus consumer orientation such a typology articulates the importance of consumer behavior in the policy design for a transition and the relevance for the market to select target subjects of policy during the deployment stage of clean technology innovation we apply this typology to policy instruments of china s new energy vehicle nev industry between 1991 and 2015 in order to explain the industry s rapid growth the focus of china s policy mix has transited from government selection to market selection and from producer orientation to consumer orientation other than the new typology this paper traces the entire history of policy transition within china s nev industry and finds the transition to be a result of policy learning thus contributing to future empirical studies of this industry

r versus d estimating the differentiated effect of research and development on innovation results r d is considered to be the main source of innovation we argue that r d is too broad a measure including activities differing in purposes culture people management and other features however empirical studies have not analyzed them separately mainly due to the lack of data using firm level data the aim of this paper is to estimate the differentiated effect of research and development on different innovation outputs results show that both research and development activities are important however we find that development activities are more important for product innovation while the effect of research activities is higher on process innovation moreover we analyze differences by technological intensity of the sector when analyzing product and process innovations we find evidence supporting the existence of higher payoffs to development and especially to research in low tech sectors when compared with high tech ones

licensing of university inventions the role of a technology transfer office abstract we develop a theoretical model to explain the specific role of technology transfer offices ttos in licensing university inventions using a framework where firms have incomplete information on the quality of inventions we develop a reputation argument for the tto to reduce the asymmetric information problem our results indicate that a tto is often able to benefit from its capacity to pool innovations across research units and to build a reputation within universities we identify when the technology seller will have an incentive to shelve some of the projects thus raising the buyer s beliefs on expected quality this results in fewer but more valuable innovations being sold at higher prices we explain the importance of a critical size for the tto to be successful as well as the stylized fact that ttos may lead to fewer licensing agreements but higher income from innovation transfers

skills and changing comparative advantage using u s input output data for the period 1947 1996 and dictionary of occupational titles skill scores i find that u s exports have a high content in cognitive and interactive skills relative t

local demand pull policy and energy innovation evidence from the solar photovoltaic market in china abstract market demand is an important driver for inducing innovation with many empirical studies supporting the demand induced innovation hypothesis critiques of such studies however emphasize that new empirical evidence that can address existing empirical challenges is needed furthermore existing literature disagrees about whether the locus of demand pull policy matters in this paper we use empirical evidence from the distributed solar photovoltaic pv market in china to address the following questions 1 is there evidence of demand induced innovation 2 does the effect of local demand pull policy differ from the effect of non local demand pull policy on demand induced innovation to address these questions we develop and analyze an original database of pv balance of system bos patents in the distributed pv market filed between 2005 and 2014 in china our results support the demand induced innovation hypothesis and suggest that only local demand significantly induces pv bos innovations in the distributed pv market in china the different effects of local demand and non local demand emphasize the importance of local markets and local policies lending some support to bottom up approaches to clean energy governance

farmers financing of agricultural research in israel abstract agricultural research is mostly a public undertaking in israel as in many other countries farmers participate in the finance of research through taxes imposed by farm organizations on the marketed products farmers contribution ranges from 8 of research outlay in tomatoes to 79 in cotton strength of organization and ease of collection were the major factors affecting this share in general as inflation eroded the real value of government s finance the farmers increased their share representatives of farmers organization participate in the bodies that approve grants to proposed research projects it was found that the higher the share of farmers finance the larger the part of short term research directed at immediate outcomes and the smaller the part of long term more basic research the tendency of the farmers to prefer short term applicable research may reflect both their familiarity with practical problems and a comparatively high degree of risk aversion it is not clear how farmers participation in the direction of research which is based on their financial contribution affects the efficiency of resource allocation to the agricultural sciences

assessing spillovers from universities to firms evidence from french firm level data we assess the importance of information flows from universities to innovative firms and determine the relative contribution of formal collaboration and pure knowledge spillovers in this process we find that spillovers provide the most benefit to firms that imitate existing technologies or those that are involved in incremental innovation on the other hand highly innovative firms appear to derive most benefit from collaborative research with foreign universities indeed highly innovative firms are at the frontier of the academic knowledge in their industry therefore they only marginally benefit from aggregate or industry wide spillovers they require new forms of academic knowledge that they acquire through formal cooperation with foreign universities

exploding net errors and omissions as a capital flight phenomenon the case of slovakia this article empirically explores determinants of net errors and omissions neo of slovakia during the 1997 2014 period with emphasis on the 2008 2014 sub period when a distinct downturn in the n

modeling inflation dynamics a critical review of recent research in recent years a broad academic consensus has arisen around the use of rational expectations sticky price models to capture inflation dynamics these models are seen as providing an empirically reasonable characterization of observed inflation behavior once suitable measures of the output gap are chosen and moreover are perceived to be robust to the lucas critique in a way that earlier econometric models of inflation are not we review the principal conclusions of this literature concerning 1 the ability of these models to fit the data 2 the importance of rational forward looking expectations in price setting and 3 the appropriate measure of inflationary pressures we argue that existing rational expectations sticky price models fail to provide a useful empirical description of the inflation process especially relative to traditional econometric phillips curves of the sort commonly employed for policy analysis

remittances and competitiveness the case of the philippines summary the paper looks at the impact of migration and workers remittances on the competitiveness of the home economy it extends existing research that concentrated on the exchange rate effects of remittances the so called dutch disease effect by adding labor market effects the results show that the labor market effects of emigration and remittances have a significant impact on competitiveness that goes beyond the traditional exchange rate effect

a new keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations abstract within a new keynesian model we incorporate bounded rationality at the individual agent level and we determine restrictions on expectations operators sufficient to imply aggregate is and as relations of the same functional form as those under rationality this result provides dual implications the strong nature of the restrictions required to achieve aggregation serve as a caution to researchers imposing heterogeneous expectations at an aggregate level may be ill advised on the other hand accepting the necessary restrictions provides for tractable analysis of expectations heterogeneity as an example we consider a case where a fraction of agents are rational and the remainder are adaptive and find specifications that are determinate under rationality may possess multiple equilibria in case of expectations heterogeneity

the changing rewards to science the case of biotechnology little is known about the form and or magnitude of compensation provided university based scientists working on firm r d this is unfortunate given the important role that university based scientists play in r d and the growing literature concerning compensation and innovation this paper sheds some light on these issues by examining the compensation of university based scientists involved with 52 biotech firms that made an initial public offering between march of 1990 and november of 1992 although the stock holdings of the university scientists are of particular interest additional forms of compensation received by the scientists are also examined

estimating the euler equation for output new keynesian macroeconomic models have generally emphasized that expectations of future output are a key factor in determining current output the theoretical motivation for such forward looking behavior relies on a straightforward generalization of the well known euler equation for consumption in this paper we use maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments gmm methods to explore the empirical importance of output expectations we find little evidence that rational expectations of future output help determine current output especially after taking into account the small sample bias in gmm

trust and the market for technology abstract conditional on the decision to enter the market for immature technology we test for the effects that trust proxied by the context in which the negotiating parties first met has on the likelihood that these negotiations are successful using survey responses from 860 university firm and firm firm technology transactions we find that trust matters parties with high levels of trust i e know each other from a previous business are between 6 and 23 per cent more likely to conclude a transaction compared with those with low levels of trust i e cold callers we also find that patents can effectively substitute for a lack of trust and that trust is more important in upstream stages basic or applied science

is the fed s news perception different from the private sector s the recent literature on monetary policy has dedicated considerable attention to modelling agents processing of information about the future in real time this paper contributes to this growing st

the roles of science in technological innovation abstract one of the central issues in science policy during the past decade has been the extent to which the national levels of expenditure on scientific education and research influence the standard of living this paper provides empirical evidence to show that the pay off from this investment in science is more complex and indirect than previously supposed

inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the united states i introduction this paper analyzes the ability of sticky price models to explain the dynamics of u s inflation when using survey data as proxies for inflation expectations testing sticky price models with survey expectations is attractive since to the extent that survey data correctly capture agents expectations they allow to disregard issues related to the specification of agents expectations functions one neither has to impose untested orthogonality restrictions as required when estimating under the assumption of rational expectations nor has to make restrictive assumptions about the precise form of nonrationality present in agents forecast functions this allows to focus on the question whether the economic models under consideration are correctly specified previous tests of sticky price models performed under the assumption that agents hold rational expectations have generated mixed results prominently fuhrer and moore 1995 have reported that sticky price models do not generate sufficient stickiness for inflation when the output gap is used as a measure of real marginal costs recent evidence however has shown that the empirical performance depends crucially on how one measures real marginal costs the main determinant of inflation according to sticky price models for instance gall and gertler 1999 and sbordone 2002 show that sticky price models perform well once marginal costs are approximated by average unit labor costs 1 it makes an important difference whether sticky price models successfully explain inflation dynamics as a function of output behavior or they relate inflation dynamics to the behavior of unit labor costs given that the ultimate objective is a model explaining the joint behavior of output and inflation the latter case would require an additional empirically plausible theory linking the dynamics of unit labor costs to the behavior of output this paper studies whether the currently popular new keynesian phillips curve nkpc which can be derived from calvo 1983 style sticky price models is able to explain a relationship between inflation on the one hand and output or unit labor costs on the other hand thus we let the data speak whether a theory linking output to costs is warranted once expectations are approximated by data reported in the survey of professional forecasters our main finding is that the nkpc performs equally well with both measures of marginal costs output and unit labor costs whatever measure is used the estimate of the quarterly discount factor is close to one and the point estimate of the degree of price stickiness implies that firms reset their prices roughly every five quarters on average these results suggest that potential nonrationalities in expectations as they show up in surveys have biased previous estimates using output as a measure for marginal costs quite surprisingly the same nonrationalities do not seem to play a role when using unit labor costs here our estimates confirm the results obtained by gall and gertler 1999 and sbordone 2002 who assumed rational expectations we show that the reason for this finding is that approximating the agents information set using the unit labor cost variable rests on more solid grounds than approximating it using the output variable in particular the survey data suggest that the hypothesis of rational expectations implies a too high correlation between lagged output and future inflation expectations we show that this causes the coefficient estimate for output to become negative contrary to what is implied by theory these results suggest that once one takes account of potentially nonrational expectations via survey expectations sticky price models are able to establish a close link between output dynamics and the behavior of inflation to assess the robustness of this finding we include into the price equation lags of various variables and test for their significance

demand side vs supply side technology policies hidden treatment and new empirical evidence on the policy mix this paper provides new empirical evidence about the impact of various technological policies upon firms innovative behaviour we take into consideration the role of policies for innovative activities and we focus on their interaction while supply side policies such as r d subsidies and tax credits have been both extensively discussed in the literature and empirically investigated the analysis of innovative public procurement is a growing trend in the literature which still lacks robust empirical evidence in this paper we replicate the existing results on supply side policies surmise fresh empirical evidence on the outcome of innovative public procurement and address the issue of possible interaction among the various tools when controlling for the interaction with other policies supply side subsidies cease to be as effective as reported in previous studies and innovative public procurement seems to be more effective than other tools the preliminary evidence suggests that technology policies exert the highest impact when different policies interact