can there be a market for cheap talk information an experimental investigation abstract this paper reports on experiments testing the viability of markets for cheap talk information we find that the level of trade in these markets is very small and eventually vanishes sellers provide low quality information even when doing so does not increase their monetary payoff this contributes to the low demand in the market for information moreover we observe the same very low level of activity in the market for information when sellers face no conflict of interest and the noise in the quality of the transmitted information is much lower hence we argue that the collapse of the market for information is a demand phenomenon and even small uncertainty over the quality of information seems to have a large impact

winner take all and proportional prize contests theory and experimental results abstract this study provides a unified framework to compare three canonical types of contests winner take all contests won by the best performer winner take all lotteries where probability of success is proportional to performance and proportional prize contests in which rewards are shared in proportion to performance we derive equilibria and observe outcomes from each contest in a laboratory experiment equilibrium and observed efforts are highest in winner take all contests lotteries and proportional prize contests have the same nash equilibrium but empirically lotteries induce higher efforts and lower more unequal payoffs behavioral deviations from theoretical benchmarks in different contests are caused by the same underlying attributes such as risk aversion and the utility of winning finally we find that subjects exhibit consistent behavior across different types of contests with subjects exerting higher effort in one contest also exerting higher effort in another contest

a designer s choice between single prize and parallel tournaments in this article i theoretically and experimentally compare a designer s profits from two tournament designs the first design is a standard winner take all tournament with a single prize the second design features two winner take all parallel tournaments with different prizes where individuals choose which tournament to enter before competing i develop a simple model that illustrates how the relative performances of these designs change as contestants abilities differ the theoretical model shows that the designer s profit is higher lower in the parallel tournament when contestants abilities differ greatly are similar i complement these findings with experimental evidence the experiments show that the parallel tournament is more profitable under high heterogeneity whereas under low heterogeneity the designer is better off with the single prize tournament furthermore high ability agents under participate and low ability agents over participate in the high prize tournament relative to the theoretical prediction jel c72 d82 j33 m51 m52

seasonality aggregation and the testing of the production smoothing hypothesis one of the leading hypotheses concerning the dynamics of production over time is the production smoothing hypothesis given a planning horizon which spans a number of production periods the firm need not produce in each period an amount equal to expected sales rather resorting to inventory accumulation and liquidation the firm may follow a production plan temporally smoother than the path of demand if firms faced with convex cost functions chose to smooth the rate of output in order to minimize costs one would expect to observe that the rate of output would vary less than the rate of sales with variations in inventory stocks absorbing some of the fluctuations in sales recently work on the testing of the production smoothing hypothesis has cast doubt on its empirical validity the evidence presented by alan blinder seems to indicate that the variance of production exceeds that of sales in seven out of eight two digit retail industries 1981 and in eighteen out of twenty two digit manufacturing industries 1983 and 1986 the purpose of this paper then is to examine the validity of such tests when seasonally adjusted aggregated data are used the evidence presented show that the relative size of the variances of the seasonally adjusted production and sales does not provide valid tests of the production smoothing hypothesis in addition aggregating over firms where the seasonal patterns differ may also distort tests of production smoothing blinder realized that the use of seasonally adjusted data may not provide an adequate test of the hypothesis stating had they been available i would have preferred to use data that were not seasonally adjusted since the production smoothing model presumably applies to seasonal fluctuations in sales however such data are not available 1983 fn 19 in this paper i focus on the cement industry because the unadjusted disaggregated data are available for the direct testing of the conjecture that aggregate seasonally adjusted data mask production smoothing phenomenon aggregate monthly data on five other industries will also be examined

selecting public goods institutions who likes to punish and reward we study the link between individual attitudes toward uncertainty on the one hand and preferences over as well as behavior within various public goods institutions on the other hand we incentive compatibly elicit preferences over voluntary contribution mechanisms with and without reward and punishment options and then randomly assign subjects to play in one of the four institutions we find that payoffs are significantly greater when punishment is allowed but that only a small minority of participants prefers such an environment somewhat surprisingly preferences over institutions are generally independent of individual characteristics conversely individual characteristics including institutional preferences are significantly predictive of behavior in the public goods game for instance risk averse individuals preemptively punish more often this suggests that when studying sanctions and rewards it is important to consider individual attitudes toward risk and uncertainty although they may not affect the original selection into institutions

egalitarianism and competitiveness competition is a cornerstone of economic life some environments are however more competitive than others and individuals are often confronted with the decision whether to self select into a competitive environment an important example is occupational choice a self employed lawyer is in constant competition for clients whereas a lawyer working as a civil servant in a public authority is not likewise some people vigorously compete for promo tion to better paid jobs associated with a high prestige while others don t understanding who self selects into competitive environments and who shies away from them is thus important in this paper we test the hypothesis that individu als with a preference for egalitarian outcomes are more reluctant to self select into competitive environments our hypothesis is based on i the observation that payoff inequalities among winners and losers arise as a natural by product of competition and ii the empirical literature showing that a nonnegligible share of children and adults is willing to incur costs to reduce earnings inequalities see e g christopher dawes et al 2007 ernst fehr helen bernhard and bettina rockenbach 2008 we analyze data from several economic experiments implemented in a household survey study with mothers of preschool children we

distributional preferences and competitive behavior we study experimentally the relationship between distributional preferences and competitive behavior we find that spiteful subjects react strongest to competitive pressure and win in a tournament significantly more often than efficiency minded and inequality averse subjects however when given the choice between a tournament and a piece rate scheme efficiency minded subjects choose the tournament most often while spiteful and inequality averse subjects avoid it when controlling for distributional preferences risk attitudes and past performance the gender gap in the willingness to compete is no longer significant indicating that gender related variables explain why twice as many men as women self select into competition

why is production more volatile than sales theory and evidence on the stockout avoidance motive for inventory holding this paper argues that the macroeconomically interesting features of inventory behavior are well captured by a model in which firms face only demand uncertainty with a nonnegativity constraint on inventories empirical implications of the stockout avoidance model of inventory behavior are derived and then tested on disaggregated automobile industry data the results largely support the model though they suggest a small role for production smoothing as well subsidiary evidence on the relative variance of demand and cost shocks suggests that demand shocks are indeed more important

the stabilizing effect of inventory in supply chains this paper presents a hierarchical model framework for the analysis of the stabilizing effect of inventories in multiechelon manufacturing distribution supply chains this framework is used to compare the variance of demand to the variance of replenishment orders at different echelons of the system e g retailer wholesaler empirical data and experience with management games suggest that in most industries inventory management policies can have a destabilizing effect by increasing the volatility of demand as it passes up through the chain the bullwhip effect our model helps to explain these observations and indicates mechanisms that can promote stabilization the analysis results also define sufficient conditions for the existence of stabilization and relate these conditions to the optimality of myopic control policies

who is behavioral cognitive ability and anomalous preferences in this paper we ask whether variation in preference anomalies is related to variation in cognitive ability evidence from a new laboratory study of chilean high school students with similar schooling backgrounds shows that small stakes risk aversion and short run discounting are less common among those with higher standardized test scores the relationship with test scores survives controls for parental education and wealth we find some evidence that elementary school gpa is predictive of preferences measured at the end of high school two laboratory interventions provide suggestive evidence of a possible causal impact of cognitive resources on expressed preferences jel j24 d14 c91

revisiting the trade off between risk and incentives the shocking effect of random shocks despite its central role in the theory of incentives empirical evidence of a trade off between risk and incentives remains scarce we reexamine this trade off in a workplace lab environment and find that in line with theory principals increase fixed pay while lowering performance pay when the relationship between effort and output is noisier unexpectedly agents produce substantially more in the noisy environment than in the baseline despite weaker incentives in addition principals earnings are significantly higher in the noisy environment we show that these findings can be accounted for when agents maximize a non cara utility function or when they exhibit loss aversion data and the online appendix are available at https doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2017 2914 this paper was accepted by uri gneezy behavioral economics

the importance of being confident gender career choice and willingness to compete abstract this study investigates the extent to which gender differences in choosing to enter competitive tournaments are due to women s lower taste for competition or differences in confidence we examine three types of confidence and find that confidence measured by expected ranking is the most important determinant of decisions to enter tournaments conditional on ability this measure eliminates gender differences in winner take all tournaments and when entered with risk measures eliminates differences in ranked compensation tournaments when the sample is split by career choice there are no gender differences for students in stem fields and in the humanities and the social sciences differences can be explained by confidence however for business school students gender differences in willingness to compete in winner take all tournaments persist even after accounting for risk aversion and confidence men in business set themselves apart from the rest of the population men and women alike with the highest levels of tournament entry and the most positive performance responses to competition

simultaneous decision making in competitive and cooperative environments we experimentally investigate simultaneous decision making in two contrasting environments a competitive environment a contest and a cooperative environment a voluntary contribution mechanism we find that the cooperative nature of the voluntary contribution mechanism spills over to the contest decreasing sub optimal overbidding in the contest however contributions to the public good are not affected by simultaneous participation in the contest there is a significant negative correlation between decisions made in competitive and cooperative environments i e more cooperative subjects tend to be less competitive and vice versa this correlation can be rationalized by heterogeneous social preferences towards inequality but not by bounded rationality theory

do women shy away from competition do men compete too much we examine whether men and women of the same ability differ in their selection into a competitive environment participants in a laboratory experiment solve a real task first under a noncompetitive piece rate and then a competitive tournament incentive scheme although there are no gender differences in performance men select the tournament twice as much as women when choosing their compensation scheme for the next performance while 73 percent of the men select the tournament only 35 percent of the women make this choice this gender gap in tournament entry is not explained by performance and factors such as risk and feedback aversion only playa negligible role instead the tournament entry gap is driven by men being more overconfident and by gender differences in preferences for performing in a competition the result is that women shy away from competition and men embrace it

lost in translation the effect of cultural values on mergers around the world we find strong evidence that three key dimensions of national culture trust hierarchy and individualism affect merger volume and synergy gains the volume of cross border mergers is lower when countries are more culturally distant in addition greater cultural distance in trust and individualism leads to lower combined announcement returns these findings are robust to year and country level fixed effects time varying country pair and deal level variables as well as instrumental variables for cultural differences based on genetic and somatic differences the results are the first large scale evidence that cultural differences have substantial impacts on multiple aspects of cross border mergers

the variability of aggregate demand with s s inventory policies this paper develops a general theory of the aggregate implications of s s inventory policies it is shown that s s policies add to the variability of demand with the variance of orders exceeding the variance of sales overall the s s theory contradicts the widely held notion that retail inventories act as a buffer protecting manufacturers from fluctuating sales in 1951 arrow harris and marschak 3 introduced the s s form of inventory policy the policies are designed for retailers of finished goods who face economies of scale when placing orders with their suppliers to pursue an s s inventory policy the retailer establishes a lower stock point s and an upper stock point s no order is placed until inventories fall to s or below whereupon they are restored to the maximum of s a general proof of the optimality of these s s inventory policies was provided by scarf 13 at the microeconomic level the model has been extensively investigated formulae are available to compute optimal policies e g ehrhardt 6 and these policies are xidely used in industry e g schwartz ed 14 in addition the model has been extended to increasingly complex demand environments e g karlin and fabens 11 in contrast little is known about the macroeconomic implications of s s policies several recent papers have begun to correct this deficiency akerlof has suggested that pursuit of constant threshold money holding policies of the s s variety might be responsible for the observed low short run income elasticity of the demand for money akerlof 1 and akerlof and milbourne 2 in the operations research literature ehrhardt schultz and wagner 7 analyzed the demand environment of a wholesaler supplying several retailers they required that the distinct retailers have independent sales ruling out the analysis of common factors in sales finally simulation results of blinder 4 suggested a role for the s s model in understanding retail sector inventories however the theoretical difficulties with the model remained unresolved blinder commented if firms have a technology that makes the s s rule optimal aggregation across firms is inherently difficult indeed it is precisely this difficulty which has prevented the s s model from being used in empirical work to date blinder 4 p 459 in this paper we present a general theory of the aggregate implications of s s policies our central finding is that s s policies add to the variability of demand with the variance of orders exceeding the variance of sales this result holds even in the presence of common factors in retail sales in addition a close connection

trade inventories and s s the paper presents empirical tests of the s s model of inventory behavior using aggregate retail trade data estimation and testing are based on the probability distributions of inventories derived by caplin 1985 the excess volatility of retailers demand over their consumers demand and the forgetfulness of inventories under s s are emphasized test results indicate that the time series properties of deliveries and sales are consistent with s s and not a quadratic cost model finally when autoregressions of inventories are given an s s rather than a stock adjustment interpretation traditional empirical problems such as low speeds of adjustment are explained

gender effects in the credence goods market an experimental study abstract in this paper we offer further explanation for differences in earnings across genders we investigate difference in preferences in payment systems for credence goods we find that women were no less likely to select variable rate payment schemes as compensation for providing credence goods than men however overall earnings remained higher for men than for women disaggregating behavior by type of payment and gender reveals that women who chose fee for service provided significantly fewer units of services paid for than men who chose fee for service this difference accounts for the lower overall earnings for women in our experiments

does affirmative action reduce gender discrimination and enhance efficiency new experimental evidence we investigate experimentally the impact of quota policies on gender discrimination in hiring decisions by testing whether affirmative action increases female employment we also ask whether firm performance is affected by such policies our experiment consists of three treatments in the baseline no quota treatment groups of two employers and six potential job candidates are formed employers have to hire two workers based on information on candidate characteristics including gender and years and subject of study the second low penalty treatment is identical to the baseline except there is a quota such that at least half of the employees hired must be women if this quota is not respected the firm has to pay a penalty the last high penalty treatment is the same as the low penalty treatment except that the penalty is significantly higher we find that women are ranked unfavorably in the absence of a quota and the introduction of a quota significantly reduces gender discrimination firm performance is not affected by the introduction of quotas

productivity growth transparency and monetary policy abstract this study examines whether central bank transparency about views of future productivity growth contributes to stabilizing macroeconomic fluctuations in a standard new keynesian model the central bank and private agents make their subjective estimates on the persistence of productivity growth in this situation if private agents believe that the central bank s projections include forecast errors on future productivity growth these beliefs can destabilize private agents own expectations because the central bank s forecast errors may lead to policy mistakes in the future consequently central bank transparency does not necessarily stabilize the variations of the output gap and inflation rate the central bank should respond strongly to the inflation rate if the impact of transparency is uncertain

on the merit of equal pay performance manipulation and incentive setting abstract work performance is often difficult to assess thus leaving room for manipulation of commonly used metrics we created a laboratory workplace in which we can precisely assess both work performance along with manipulation activities using two independent experiments we show that whenever pay for performance is used manipulation is pervasive leading to both a waste of organizational resources and a weakening of incentives by contrast paying organizational members equally effectively deters manipulation attempts leading to higher organizational production

inventories and the volatility of production a stylized fact associated with inventory behavior is that the variance of production exceeds the variance of sales this paper presents a model of production decisions with demand uncertainty that incorporates no nnegativity constraints on inventories even with no productivity shocks optimal behavior by the firm is consistent with this stylized fact either if demand exhibits positive serial correlation or if the firm can backlog excess demand the reason is that a demand shock affects both the actual inventory level given unchanged production and the desired level production must replenish the stock and adjust to the new desired level copyright 1987 by american economic association

do quotas help women to climb the career ladder a laboratory experiment abstract women are less likely to enroll in selective or scientific courses applying for promotions and are particularly underrepresented in both middle and top positions in the stem field quota are often advocated as an instrument to reduce this gender gap but it remains unclear at what step of the career ladder they more effectively foster women s reaching the top many factors may affect quota s success or failure such as how they would in turn affect teamwork and trust between members within organizations or coordination in applying for promotions in this paper by means of a laboratory experiment implementing a two stage tournament we evaluate the impact of three different interventions in affecting individual decision to climb the career ladder abstracting away from other possible confounding factors we find that compared with no intervention a gender quota introduced in the initial stage of competition was ineffective in encouraging women to compete for the top quotas introduced in the final stage of competition or at both stages increased women s willingness to compete for the top without distorting the performance of the winners

temporal stability and psychological foundations of cooperation preferences abstract a core element of economic theory is the assumption of stable preferences we test this assumption in public goods games by repeatedly eliciting cooperation preferences in a fixed subject pool over a period of five months we find that cooperation preferences are very stable at the aggregate level and to a smaller degree at the individual level allowing us to predict future behavior fairly accurately furthermore our results provide evidence on the psychological foundations of cooperation preferences the personality dimension agreeableness is closely related to both the type and the stability of cooperation preferences

managing supply chain demand variability with scheduled ordering policies this paper studies supply chain demand variability in a model with one supplier and n retailers that face stochastic demand retailers implement scheduled ordering policies orders occur at fixed intervals and are equal to some multiple of a fixed batch size a method is presented that exactly evaluates costs previous research demonstrates that the supplier s demand variance declines as the retailers order intervals are balanced i e the same number of retailers order each period this research shows that the supplier s demand variance will generally decline as the retailers order interval is lengthened or as their batch size is increased lower supplier demand variance can certainly lead to lower inventory at the supplier this paper finds that reducing supplier demand variance with scheduled ordering policies can also lower total supply chain costs

looking at the bright side the motivational value of confidence abstract the motivational value of confidence postulates that individual effort provision is increasing in beliefs on one s own ability this relation is supposed to also hold for overconfident individuals who have exaggerated ability beliefs we present the first empirical evidence on the existence of a motivational value of absolute confidence that many microeconomic models with overconfident agents build on moreover we document that negative debiasing information on individual ability diminishes effort provision a result that is of obvious relevance for many contexts such as labor relations or learning at school we also offer a strategy for identifying significant absolute overconfidence at the individual level

balance of power and the propensity of conflict we study the role of an imbalance in fighting strengths when players bargain in the shadow of conflict our experimental results suggest in a simple bargaining game with an exogenous mediation proposal the likelihood of conflict is independent of the balance of power if bargaining involves endogenous demand choices however the likelihood of conflict is higher if power is more imbalanced even though endogenous bargaining outcomes reflect the players unequal fighting strengths strategic uncertainty causes outcomes to be most efficient when power is balanced in turn the importance of exogenous mediation proposals depends on the balance of power

entrepreneurs embrace competition evidence from a lab in the field study referring to isreal m kirzner 1973 and schumpeter 1934 who emphasized the competitive nature of entrepreneurship this study investigates whether potential and revealed entrepreneurs are more likely to seek competition than non entrepreneurs we provide a conceptual framework that links entrepreneurship to three facets of individual competitiveness drawn from economic entrepreneurship and psychological research a desire to win striving for personal development and an enjoyment of competition following economic research linking competitive behavior in experiments to career choices we conduct a lab in the field study and demonstrate that entrepreneurs are more likely to enter competitions than non entrepreneurs accounting for individual desires to win and mastery related achievement motivations our results indicate that entrepreneurs tend to enter competition for the sake of competition itself rather than for the prospect of winning it or personal development our results suggest that enjoyment of competition might be an additional factor driving entrepreneurs market entry decisions beyond well known factors like overconfidence and risk taking

female hires and the success of start up firms in this paper we investigate the relationship between females among the first hires of start up companies and business success our results show that firms with female first hires have a higher share of female workers at the end of the first year after entry further we find that firms with female first hires are more successful and stay longer in the market we conclude that our results support the hypothesis that gender diversity in leading positions is an advantage for start up firms this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

bullwhip effect measurement and its implications the bullwhip effect or demand information distortion has been a subject of both theoretical and empirical studies in the operations management literature in this paper we develop a simple set of formulas that describe the traditional bullwhip measure as a combined outcome of several important drivers such as finite capacity batch ordering and seasonality our modeling framework is descriptive in nature as it features certain plausible approximations that are commonly employed in practical inventory systems the results are nonetheless compelling and can be used to explain various conflicting observations in previous empirical studies building on the theoretical framework we discuss the managerial implications of the bullwhip measurement we show that the measurement can be completely noninformative about the underlying supply chain cost performance if it is not linked to the operational details such as decision intervals and leadtimes specifically we show that an aggregated measurement over relatively long time periods can mask the operational level bullwhip in addition we show that masking also exists under product or location aggregation in some illustrative cases

capacitated inventory problems with fixed order costs some optimal policy structure abstract almost 40 years ago h scarf the optimality of s s policies in dynamic inventory problems in k arrow s karlin p suppes eds mathematical models in the social sciences stanford university press stanford 1960 established the optimal s s policy structure for the periodic review inventory problem with fixed ordering costs and no capacity constraint since then the capacitated problem has resisted characterization in the present paper we partially bridge this gap using a generalization of scarf s k convexity we show that the optimal capacitated policy has an s s like structure to do so we divide the parameter space into four regions in two of these regions the optimal policy is completely specified while in the other two it is partially specified we complement these findings with a computational study this study suggests that a still simpler optimal policy structure exists