guarding the guardians good government requires some restraints on the powerful but how can those be impose if there is no one above them this paper studies the equilibrium allocation of power and resources established by self interested incumbents under the threat of rebellions from inside and outside the group in power commitment to uphold individuals rights can only be achieved if power is not as concentrated as incumbents would like it to be ex post power sharing endogenously enables incumbents to commit to otherwise time inconsistent laws by ensuring more people receive rents under the status quo and thus want to defend it

estimates of the returns to quality and coauthorship in economic academia salaries of academic economists are studied to determine if individuals receive differential returns to publishing articles of varying quality and to coauthored versus single authored articles estimates based on detailed data and a flexible nonlinear least squares procedure indicate that substantial returns to quality exist and that an individual s return from a coauthored paper with n authors is approximately 1 n times that of a single authored paper

commodity price shocks and civil conflict evidence from colombia how do income shocks aect armed con ict theory suggests two op posite eects if labor is used to appropriate resources violently higher wages may lower con ict by reducing labor supplied to appropriation this is the opportunity cost eect alternatively a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation this is the rapacity eect our paper exploits exogenous price shocks in inter national commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in colombia to assess how dierent income shocks aect con ict we examine changes in the price of agricultural goods which are labor intensive and natural resources which are capital intensive we focus on coee and oil the two largest exports we nd that a sharp fall in coee prices in the 1990s increased violence dierentially in regions growing more coee by lower ing wages and the opportunity cost of joining armed groups in contrast a rise in oil prices increased violence dierentially in the oil region by in creasing municipal revenue siphoned through rapacity this pattern holds in several other agricultural and natural resource sectors providing robust evidence that price shocks aect con ict in opposite directions depending on the factor intensity of the commodity

aging and productivity among economists economists productivity over their careers and as measured by publication in leading journals declines very sharply with age there is no difference by age in the probability that an article submitted to a leading journal will be accepted rates of declining productivity are no greater among the very top publishers than among others and the probability of acceptance is increasingly related to the author s quality rather than the author s age

strategic behavior in contests reply in my 1987 paper i modeled contests where the probability of each player winning a prize depends on all players efforts and examined the first order benefits to one player of making a commitment to a strategy slightly different from his nash equilibrium strategy in the special case of a two player symmetric contest i found that this first order effect was zero michael r baye and onsong shin 1999 have taken the useful further step of finding the second order conditions which ensure that the local stationary point is a local maximum they also find an example where such a commitment has a third order benefit whether this is of any substantive economic interest remains to be seen i used the phrase no local effect to mean zero first order effect which was clearly a sloppy use of language but some such restriction on the use of local is essential if the phrase x has no local effect on f x at x 5 a were to mean that all derivatives f a are zero then a taylor series expansion would show that f x 5 f a for all x and no local effect would be the same as no global effect most importantly symmetric contests were only a very special case of my model the focus was on the much more interesting and more general situation of asymmetry among the players where one player s commitment to a strategy different from his nash equilibrium strategy does bring him a first order benefit the favorite benefits by committing to excessive effort and the underdog from committing to too little others for example kyung h baik and jason f shogren 1992 have extended the analysis to endogenize the order of moves and found that it can be in the interests of both contestants to let the underdog make the commitment in my view these are the more interesting economic issues to do with contests than are third order effects in the symmetric case

from maize to haze agricultural shocks and the growth of the mexican drug sector understanding how economic incentives affect illegal drug production is essential for crafting policies in response to the international drug trade policymakers typically face a choice between two strategies targetingcriminalgroupsvialawenforcement andofferingproducersincentivestoengage in alternate activities yet little is known about how the returns to alternate legal activities affect drug supply we contribute to this literature by examining how shocks to legal commodity prices affect the drug trade in mexico our analysis exploits exogenous movements in the mexican maize price stemming from weather conditions in u s maize growing regions as well as exports of other major maize producers using data on over 2200 municipios spanning 1990 2010 we show that lower prices differentially increased the cultivation of both marijuana and opium poppies in municipios

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a few goodmen surname sharing economist coauthors we explore the phenomenon of coauthorship by economists who share a surname prior research has included at most three economist coauthors who share a surname ours is the first paper to have four economist coauthors who share a surname as well as the first where such coauthors are unrelated by marriage blood or current campus jel y9

the logic of political violence this paper offers a unified approach for studying political violence whether it emerges as repression or civil war we formulate a model where an incumbent or opposition can use violence to maintain or acquire power to study which political and economic factors drive one sided or two sided violence repression or civil war the model predicts a hierarchy of violence states from peace via repression to civil war and suggests a natural empirical approach exploiting only within country variation in the data we show that violence is associated with shocks that can affect wages and aid as in the theory these effects are only present where political institutions are non cohesive

determinants of scholarly productivity among male and female economists i introduction the purpose of this article is to test a model of the determinants of articles produced by male and female academics of particular interest is how article production is influenced by coauthorship institutional research orientation and gender several works have identified and demonstrated the trend toward coauthorship in economics and in other disciplines using data from the journal of economic literature heck and zaleski 1991 demonstrated that the incidence of coauthorship has increased from about 15 of total articles in 1969 to about 35 in 1989 durden and perri 1995 report that as of 1992 the proportion coauthored had grown to more than 38 hudson 1996 finds that by 1993 coauthorship rates in the journal of political economy and american economic review were 39 6 and 54 9 respectively as compared to rates of 6 and 8 in 1950 why do economists coauthor rational interest theory suggests that if scholars collaborate then there must be a utility enhancing result other things equal this could be in the form of higher salaries and increased probabilities of promotion greater access to funded research greater mobility in job markets and the like which might result if collaboration significantly increases the overall production of published papers studies by mcdowell and melvin 1983 barnett et al 1988 and piette and ross 1992 suggest that coauthorship among scholars may increase article production through the division of labor made necessary by increased complexity in the subject matter and by the need to saturate markets to increase the probability of getting papers accepted for publication laband and tollison 2000 find evidence that increasing rates of coauthorship result from the greater quantitative content of articles greater requirement for the use of sophisticated econometric techniques and the fact that cooperation is cheaper in time and other resources as compared to learning what is necessary to publish in another field or discipline hamermesh and oster 2002 discuss nonpecuniary purely consumption benefits such as the pleasure obtained from cooperation and suggest that higher levels of prestige among colleagues may also be relevant although many reasons for cooperation have been developed not much has been done to determine whether the rate of coauthorship among scholars actually affects total article production using cross section data hansen et al 1978 and graves et al 1982 estimate productivity models but coauthorship is not included in either study mcdowell and smith 1992 include a coauthorship variable but find that it neither increases nor decreases article production when articles are discounted by the number of authors hollis 2001 uses panel data to examine the relationship between coauthorship and research productivity he finds that coauthorship leads to better longer and more frequent publications when publications are discounted by the number of authors however coauthorship appears negatively related to research output mcdowell and smith s 1992 and hollis s 2001 results are very counterintuitive because a viable reason for coauthorship is to increase efficiency as shown in durden and perri 1995 durden and perri 1995 estimate a time series model finding that coauthorship is highly instrumental in determining article productivity as far as we know the only study by economists that specifically analyzes the effect of institutional research orientation on publishing output is that by graves et al 1982 using data from 240 schools they estimate total pages published per faculty member in the top 24 economics journals between 1974 78 using a series of independent variables to proxy influences that affect publication they find that secretaries per faculty member helps and teaching load hinders production the effects of ph d status teaching assistance and faculty student ratios are mixed depending on specification of the model

two to tango gender differences in the decisions to publish and coauthor i introduction there is a well developed mythology regarding the presence of old boy networks and their importance in explaining gender differences in labor market outcomes as articulated by saloner 1985 nonetheless aside from works such as simon and warner 1992 there is relatively little empirical evidence examining the impact of networks on market outcomes how these effects differ by gender and whether gender differences in network access change over time as women become more well represented in a profession the paucity of empirical evidence arises in part from the difficulty of measuring the presence of such networks prior work including that of saint paul 2001 and erickson and jacoby 2003 has found evidence that networks facilitate the adoption of team oriented work practices and information sharing that increase average worker productivity in management and professional jobs on the other hand studies such as that by marmaros and sacerdote 2002 have also found that women have less access to networks than their male counterparts in both private and public sector jobs which has been shown to yield gender differences in job placement and other labor market outcomes this article considers how gender differences in networks are manifested in a specific male dominated profession i e academic economists and in a specific work related outcome i e the decision to coauthor articles in which access to networks is likely to be important the analysis uses uniquely detailed individual and job level data for phd economists included in nearly four decades of american economic association aea membership to examine the role of networks on the joint decision to publish and coauthor the unique matching process of phd economists between academic and nonacademic jobs and within the hierarchy of academic departments along with the relative ease of observing joint research provide a rare opportunity to distinguish differential network access and measure joint production the results demonstrate the importance of networks in the production of research output and that new female entrants into a male dominated profession do not have equal access to these professional networks the results also provide evidence that women are able to plug into networks over time as the profession becomes more gender representative our study contributes to the literature on the role of networks in the labor market in several ways first the profession of academic economist is well suited to this study because it is made up of workers who produce a relatively homogenous output i e scholarly journal articles and that share a common set of job related tasks i e teaching research and service second the incidence of coauthorship is an observable outcome measure of network utilization a phenomenon inherently difficult to measure in the tradition of the business productivity literature as found in sabel 1993 third there is extensive evidence in the literature that journal publications are positively linked to academic salaries as found in siegfried and white 1973 and sauer 1988 that the propensity to coauthor is positively associated with publication output as in as found in durden and perri 1995 and maske et al 2003 that there are gender differences in tendencies to coauthor as shown by ferber and teiman 1980 and mcdowell and smith 1992 and that there are gender differences in professional outcomes such as publications salary and promotion as seen in mcdowell 1982 hansen et al 1978 formby et al 1993 and broder 1993 cumulatively these studies suggest that understanding the determinants of coauthorship is important for evaluating the sources and the extent of gender inequity in the profession prior work on coauthorship behavior has analyzed patterns over time and across disciplines several studies including hudson 1996 mcdowell and melvin 1983 and barnett et al

nash equilibria in models of fiscal competition abstract this paper analyzes nash equilibria in a simple model of an economy with jurisdictions engaging in fiscal competition small number nash equilibria in which tax rates are the strategic variables are shown not to coincide with nash equilibria in which public expenditure levels are the strategic variables

do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts we use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946 on average these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent but these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5 8 percentage points this increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery

on environmental federalism and direct emission control abstract a theoretical exception to the race to the bottom contends that if decentralized environmental policy is comprised of direct controls on each firm emissions standards are set too high when compared to a centralized optimum herein we examine potential distortions in decentralized decision making by reconciling two recent views of direct environmental controls we show that differences in direct control policy can arise from differences in the number of symmetric jurisdictions in an economy our results suggest the race is on once the number of jurisdictions competing for a fixed number of firms increase we see the race is off when few jurisdictions can exploit their form of environmental market power

the welfare analysis of product innovations with an application to computed tomography scanners the main goal of this paper is to put forward a methodology for the measurement of product innovations using a value metric that is equating the magnitude of innovations with the welfare gains they generate this research design is applied to the case of computed tomography scanners a revolutionary innovation in medical technology the econometric procedure centers on the estimation of a discrete choice model the nested multinominal logit which yields the parameters of a utility function defined over the changing quality dimensions of the innovative product the estimated flow of social gains from innovation is used to compute a social rate of return to r d to explore the interrelation between innovation and diffusion and to trace the time profile of benefits and costs the latter suggesting the possible occurrence of technological cycles

the origins of state capacity property rights taxation and politics economists generally assume that the state has sufficient institutional capacity to support markets and levy taxes this paper develops a framework where policy choices in market regulation and taxation are constrained by past investments in legal and fiscal capacity it studies the economic and political determinants of such investments demonstrating that legal and fiscal capacity are typically complements the results show that among other things common interest public goods such as fighting external wars as well as political stability and inclusive political institutions are conducive to building state capacity some correlations in cross country data are consistent with the theory

endogenous destruction in conflict theory and extensions this article develops a general equilibrium model of conflict to characterize the implications of endogenous destruction for bargaining and fighting specifically we consider the scenario where two contending parties engage in bargaining to avoid fighting when there are direct costs e g arms buildups and indirect costs e g destruction to consumable resources of conflict without imposing specific functional form restrictions on conflict production and destruction technologies we show their interactions in determining an optimal decision between fighting and bargaining we find that under the shadow of conflict bargaining is costly as the contending parties always allocate more resources to arming for guarding settlement through bargaining than in the event of fighting in contrast to conventional thinking that bargaining is pareto superior over fighting we show conditions under which fighting dominates bargaining as the nash equilibrium choice the positive analysis may help explain the general causes of fighting without resorting to the assumption of incomplete information or misperceptions jel d74 h56 c7

the review process in economics is it too fast rewards for publications in good economics journals are very high and submission fees and other monetary costs associated with submitting an existing manuscript are low consequently the editorial delay especially the first response time the time until the first editorial decision by postponing monetary rewards to publication constitutes the major submission cost from the author s perspective reducing the delay will induce many additional submissions of low quality papers to good journals increasing significantly the workload of editors and referees moreover the rejection rate will increase and cause papers to be rejected more times before publication offsetting at least some of the shorter first response times as a result the efforts of many editors to reduce the editorial delay although attracting more submissions to their journals may have adverse effects from a social perspective and the optimal delay might be longer than the current average of four months

population mobility and transboundary environmental problems abstract a standard result in the literature on environmental economics is that efficient environmental policies regulating transboundary pollution will be adopted only if there is interjurisdictional coordination efficient policies can be adopted as a result of interregional treaties or mandated by a central authority the present paper demonstrates that if there is perfect population mobility between the regions affected by the transboundary pollution the efficient outcome is a nash equilibrium of the policy game between regional authorities this is true independently of what policies are available to the regional authorities however there may be more than one nash equilibrium so that policy coordination may be necessary in order to achieve the best equilibrium

decentralized and efficient control of transboundary pollution in federal systems abstract decentralized control of transboundary pollution in federal systems can be efficient when population crowding is socially costly in this paper an upstream region abates pollution or makes an interregional income transfer to the downstream region with the sole intent of deterring immigration because either instrument abatement expenditure or interregional income transfer alone implements an efficient population distribution between the regions interregional income transfers are unnecessary for efficiency without explicit income transfers each region provides the efficient portion of the aggregate level of pollution abatement in the nash equilibrium

fragile states and development policy it is widely recognized that fragile states are key symptoms of under development in many parts of the world such states are incapable of delivering basic services to their citizens and political violence is commonplace as of yet mainstream development economics has not dealt in any systematic way with such concerns and the implications for development assistance this paper puts forward a framework for analyzing fragile states and applies it to a variety development policies in different types of states

a theory of civil conflict and democracy in rentier states the effects of resource rents on the political equilibrium have been studied in two main types of models the first tradition uses models of conflict and studies how resource rents affect the intensity and duration of civil conflict the second tradition uses political economy models where resource rents affect the political equilibrium due to changes in the costs and benefits of buying votes although they provide considerable insight these traditions have little to say about when democracy emerges and about when conflict emerges in this paper by integrating the earlier model traditions we suggest the simplest possible framework we can think of to study the choice between conflict and democracy we show how factors such as resource rents the extent of electoral competition and productivity affect economic and political equilibria

the effect of gender sorting on propensity to coauthor implications for academic promotion a cohort sample of ph d economists indicates a significant propensity for researchers to select coauthors of the same sex this gender sorting contributes to lower article production for women further we find evidence of bias in academic promotion when single authored and coauthored articles carry the same weight in promotion and salary decisions the evidence explains in part why women academics wait longer for promotion and are not as likely to be promoted as men among the effects of gender sorting is self selection of women into larger departments where they are more likely to find colleagues of the same sex

scholarships citations and salaries economic rewards in economics while substantial attention has been paid to the determinants of academics earnings 5 7 8 14 15 this literature has by implication suggested that the mere fact of having spent more time in the profession and the publication of more scholarly articles and books are the major determinants of salary differences our purpose here is to introduce a new determinant the quality of one s scholarly research measured by the frequency of references to that work as an additional objective measure of productivity we expect that this proxy for the extent of a scholar s influence on the work of other researchers is rewarded by the market in addition to giving a more complete picture of the determination of salaries in academic labor markets our approach should be useful in establishing a better framework for the evaluation of issues of discrimination in such markets than has been presented before 2 9

economics an emerging small world we study the evolution of social distance among economists over the period 1970 2000 while the number of economists has more than doubled the distance between them which was already small has declined significantly the key to understanding the short average distances is the observation that economics is spanned by a collection of interlinked stars a star is an economist who writes with many other economists most of whom have few coauthors and generally do not write with each other

destructive interjurisdictional competition firm capital and labor mobility in a model of direct emission control abstract a theoretical exception to a regional race to the bottom contends that if decentralized environmental policy is comprised of direct controls on each firm emissions standards are set too high relative to a centralized optimum provided populations are immobile herein we relax population immobility within a purely competitive interjurisdictional model of direct environmental controls by generalizing previous models we show that the race is likely to be on when local land incomes are important and firms respond grudgingly to changes in direct emission controls

the cycle of violence in the second intifada causality in nonlinear vector autoregressive models we contest jaeger and paserman s claim jaeger and paserman 2008 the cycle of violence an empirical analysis of fatalities in the palestinian israeli conflict american economic review 98 4 1591 1604 that palestinians did not react to israeli aggression during intifada 2 we address the differences between the two sides in terms of the timing and intensity of violence estimate nonlinear vector autoregression models that are suitable when the linear vector autoregression innovations are not normally distributed identify causal effects rather than granger causality using the principle of weak exogeneity and introduce the kill ratio as a concept for testing hypotheses about the cycle of violence the israelis killed 1 28 palestinians for every killed israeli whereas the palestinians killed only 0 09 israelis for every killed palestinian

state capacity conflict and development the absence of state capacities to raise revenue and to support markets is a key factor in explaining the persistence of weak states this paper reports on an ongoing project to investigate the incentive to invest in such capacities the paper sets out a simple analytical structure in which state capacities are modeled as forward looking investments by government the approach highlights some determinants of state building including the risk of external or internal conflict the degree of political instability and dependence on natural resources throughout we link these state capacity investments to patterns of development and growth

journey for green development transformation of china s metal industry a spatial econometric analysis abstract the metal industry mi in china is energy and emissions intensive this paper tries to provide guidance for the green development transformation of china s mi by investigating the green total factor productivity gtfp and its influencing factors using a global data envelopment analysis and a spatial tobit regression model the estimation results show that 1 from 2000 to 2015 gtfp of china s mi enjoyed a considerable improvement however the current value of gtfp of china s mi is still less than 0 5 indicating that gtfp of china s mi is far from efficient 2 the spatial correlation test shows that gtfps of china s provincial mis have positive spatial correlations most of the provinces scattered in high high and low low agglomerations 3 gtfp of china s mi is significantly positive related to the degree of marketization fiscal decentralization environmental regulation industrial scale is significantly negative related to resources endowment and product structure and has u shaped relationship with the level of economic development the above results suggest that china already has made remarkable achievements in promoting green development of its mi however there is much room for further improvement policy options for the green development transformation of china s mi include but are not limited to promoting market oriented and financial system reforms strengthening environmental supervision and optimizing industrial scale and product structure finally recommendations for the effective implementation of these policies are provided at the end of the study

workers warriors and criminals social conflict in general equilibrium we incorporate appropriation activities social conflict into canonical models of trade and study how economic shocks and policies affect the intensity of conflict we show that not all shocks that could make society richer reduce conflict positive shocks to labor intensive industries diminish conflict while positive shocks to capital intensive industries increase it the key requirement is that conflict activities be more labor intensive than the economy as this determines how shocks affect the returns and costs of conflict our theory is consistent with several observed patterns of conflict and implies that empirical work should take into account the relative factor intensities of the productive and conflict sectors in each country incorporating appropriation into a canonic general equilibrium model affects what policies may be deemed desirable in order to reduce conflict and generate pareto improvements policy must be distortionary while reforms that appear efficiency enhancing under the unrealistic assumption of perfect property rights may backfire this offers one explanation for why reforms based on traditional models without appropriation may be delayed and become unpopular when implemented and why societies may sympathize with seemingly inefficient redistribution

how do environmental regulation and environmental decentralization affect green total factor energy efficiency evidence from china abstract green development is critical for china s economic transformation enhancing green total factor energy efficiency hereafter gtfee is vital to emission reduction and to win win industrial development this study uses the panel data of 30 chinese provinces for the period 2005 2016 to investigate the relationship between environmental regulation and china s gtfee the spatial durbin model is employed to control for the possible spatial spillover effect a dynamic threshold panel model that can effectively address the endogeneity problem and regional heterogeneity is utilized to examine the potential non linear relationship between environmental regulation and gtfee under different conditions of environmental decentralization the estimation results indicate that there is a significant u shaped relationship between environmental regulation and china s gtfee with the further expansion of environmental decentralization the local government s autonomous choice of pollution control is improved the improvement of environmental decentralization can lead to negative moderating effect of environmental regulation on gtfee additionally the regression results of dynamic threshold model show that environmental decentralization can increase the negative influences of environmental regulation on gtfee interestingly the non linear impact of environmental regulation on gtfee is dependent on the specific type of environmental decentralization higher degree of environmental decentralization can lead to an increase in the restraining effect of environmental regulation on gtfee however an improvement in the decentralization of environmental supervision and environmental monitoring can increase the negative influences of environmental regulation on gtfee

the long term costs of government surveillance insights from stasi spying in east germany we investigate the long run effects of government surveillance on civic capital and economic performance studying the case of the stasi in east germany exploiting regional variation in the number of spies and administrative features of the system we combine a border discontinuity design with an instrumental variables strategy to estimate the long term post reunification effect of government surveillance we find that a higher spying density led to persistently lower levels of interpersonal and institutional trust in post reunification germany we also find substantial and long lasting economic effects of stasi surveillance resulting in lower income higher exposure to unemployment and lower self employment

comparative politics and public finance we propose a model with micropolitical foundations to contrast different political regimes compared to a parliamentary regime the institutions of a presidential congressional regime produce fewer incentives for legislative cohesion but more separation of powers these differences are reflected in the size and composition of government spending a parliamentary regime has redistribution toward a majority less underprovision of public goods and more rents to politicians a presidential congressional regime has redistribution toward powerful minorities more underprovision of public goods but less rents to politicians the size of government is smaller under a presidential regime this last prediction is consistent with cross country data

conflict and rent seeking success functions ratio vs difference models of relative success the rent seeking competitions studied by economists fall within a much broader category of conflict interactions that also includes military combats election campaigns industrial disputes lawsuits and sibling rivalries in the rent seeking literature each party s success pi which can be interpreted either as the probability of victory or as the proportion of the prize won has usually been taken to be a function of the ratio of the respective resource commitments alternatively however pi may instead be a function of the difference between the parties commitments to the contest the contest success function csf for the difference from is a logistic curve in which as is consistent with military experience increasing returns apply up to an inflection point at equal resource commitments a crucial flaw of the traditional ratio model is that neither onesided submission nor two sided peace between the parties can ever occur as a cournot equilibrium in contrast both of these outcomes are entirely consistent with a model in which success is a function of the difference between the parties resource commitments

locational choices of firms and decentralized environmental policy with various instruments abstract suppose there exists a federation with a given number of mobile firms generating waste emissions in the jurisdiction in which they locate this paper demonstrates that if jurisdictions use emission taxes or marketable emission rights to control pollution within their boundaries and distribute the revenues captured by these instruments in a socially efficient way firms locate efficiently taking their pollution externalities into account decentralized environmental policy relying on direct controls however prevents locational efficiency of mobile firms furthermore if jurisdictions are small decentralized environmental policy with emission taxes and marketable pollution rights also support an efficient environmental quality while a policy using direct controls sets too high emission standards

does the new economy measure up to the great inventions of the past abstract during the four years 1995 99 u s productivity growth experienced a strong revival and achieved growth rates exceeding that of the golden age of 1913 72 accordingly many observers have declared the new economy to be an industrial revolution even more important than the second industrial revolution of 1860 1900 which made the golden age of productivity growth possible this paper dissects the recent productivity revival subtracts out a cyclical component and concludes that there is no revival of the productivity growth trend in the 88 percent of the private economy lying outside of the durables manufacturing sector the paper explains this surprising finding by pointing to limitations in computers and the internet in comparison with the great inventions of the past

tools or toys the impact of high technology on scholarly productivity i introduction and motivation in the past several decades investment that makes communication easier has increased rapidly in the united states and other developed economies since the mid 1980s a combination of technical change and deregulation has also reduced long distance telephone rates in the united states by 50 reported by allen 1995 pitney bowes 1997 reported that fax usage increased by 20 between 1996 and 1997 alone and electronic mail e mail unknown before 1985 is ubiquitous today popular discussion of a wide range of additional examples of rapidly declining prices and explosive growth of the use of telecommunications is provided by cairncross 1997 attempts to measure the impact on aggregate total factor and labor productivity of these supposedly productivity enhancing investments in broad reaching technical improvements such as computing machinery and communications equipment have not met with great success as in morrison 1997 but see greenan and mairesse 1996 1 an alternative to measuring effects on the broader economy is to measure the impact of generalized technical change on productivity in specific activities observed at the micro level an earlier literature including griliches 1958 and trajtenberg 1989 has clearly traced the effect of specific innovations in raising productivity in specific sectors of the economy this article expands on that tradition by trying to identify the effect of the recent broad revolution in communications on one activity scholarly publishing we propose studying scholarly publishing before and after technical change greatly lowered communication costs we examine in particular whether increasing ease of communication has altered scholars choices about their methods of production and whether those methods yielded changes in the productivity of scholarly activity that are consistent with increasing access to new communications technologies 2 in section ii we discuss a model of the production process in scholarly writing in relation to the cost of communications in section iii we describe the unique data set we assembled to examine the relation between technical change and scholarly productivity section iv presents the results of using these data to test the hypotheses that we develop and section v compares coauthored to solo authored studies and provides a suggestion for the increased prevalence of the former section vi offers a consistent explanation for most of the results ii a model of scholarly production the example that we use in this study of the impact of technology is the nature and outcomes of the choices of co workers by authors of scholarly publications in economics the importance of team research has been stressed by a number of authors studying the economics of innovation including dasgupta 1988 who also presents a research summary so that our specific example has broader implications for the study of technical change has the decline in the cost of communication altered scholars choices in a way consistent with these technologies increasing scholarly productivity in examining scholarly productivity we focus on research output in particular we view scholars as having three production choices 1 work solo s 2 work with close by coauthor s c or 3 work with distant coauthor s d in the model in this section the scholar is assumed to choose a production technology that maximizes his or her scholarly productivity measured as the quality of the article produced in section vi we a dopt an alternative characterization of a scholar s choices we assume that the scholar has a wide range of potential research activities to choose among and has perfect knowledge of the productivity p valued in dollars of all potential matches s c sub i member of c and d sub i member of d 3 each match generates one solo equivalent article per period

globalisation and the market for team mates the globalisation of firms is explored at theoretical and empirical levels the idea is that a global firm is a multi cultural team the existence of a global firm is somewhat puzzling combining workers who have different cultures legal systems and languages imposes costs on the firm that would not be present were all workers to conform to one standard in order to offset the costs of cross cultural dealing there must be complementarities between the workers that are sufficiently important to overcome the costs the search for the best practice is analysed and empirical support from an examination of trading patterns is provided

on interjurisdictional competition and environmental federalism herein we construct a competitive interjurisdictional model that reconciles two recent exceptions to the race to the bottom j publ econ 35 1988 333 354 j urban econ 37 1995 290 310 our results suggest that since environmental rents from local production are likely not captured 100 percent by local residents devolved command and control environmental regulation is inefficient moreover faced with the reality of fiscal constraints local governments adopt property tax structures that serve to compound inefficiencies within such a second best setting if a jurisdiction underprovides non environmental public goods and jurisdictional capital productivity and emissions are strong complements a race to the bottom equilibrium is supported

repression or civil war perhaps the crowning achievement of mature democracies is the peaceful acceptance of the ballot box as the primary instrument for deciding who should hold power in society we do not have to go far back in the history of most democratic states however to find a distinct role for political violence moreover many inhabitants of the globe still remain at risk of falling prey to widespread violence in the struggle for political office forms of political violence differ a great deal we focus on two important manifestations repression and civil war distinguished by whether violence is one sided or two sided we present a unified approach to studying these forms of political violence with common roots in poverty natural resource rents and weak political institutions first we lay out rudimentary model to analyze whether violence will occur and if so manifest itself as repression or civil war three regimes peace repression and civil war emerge as alternative equilibrium outcomes in the interaction between an incumbent government and an opposition group moreover the theory suggests a natural ordering of these regimes we then construct empirical measures of repression and civil war which we map into ordered variables as suggested by the theory we investigate how the regime depends on economic and political variables using an ordered logit model defined over the three regimes our estimation results indicate a strong correlation between low incomes weak political institutions and both forms of political violence

welfare spending and political conflict in latin america 1970 2010 abstract we study an age old question in political economy does government spending on welfare ensure peace this question was at the heart of the european welfare state model of the early 20th century and remains relevant today in face of rising inequalities and political conflict yet there is limited empirical evidence about this question we make use of a panel of 12 latin american countries over the period 1970 2010 to show that welfare spending has led to substantial reductions in conflict across the region this effect is more pronounced when associated with reductions in inequality and increasing social and institutional trust

mobile labor multiple tax instruments and tax competition abstract the tax competition literature shows that local governments keep property tax rates inefficiently low to prevent capital outflows thereby underproviding local public goods this paper adds mobile labor and an alternative tax instrument to the model jurisdictions have access to a property tax levied on land and capital plus either a head tax or a labor tax scale economies in public good provision create incentives to use the property tax but these incentives are not accompanied by increased incentives to underprovide public goods in contrast underprovision is associated with the use of a distortionary labor tax

aiding violence or peace the impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub saharan africa abstract this paper considers the impact of foreign aid flows on the risk of civil conflict we improve on earlier studies on this topic by addressing the problem of the endogenous aid allocation using gdp levels of donor countries as instruments a more structural addition to the literature is that we efficiently control for unobserved country specific effects in typical conflict onset and conflict continuation models by first differencing the literature often overlooks the dynamic nature of these types of models thereby forcing unlikely i i d structures on the error terms implicitly 1 as a consequence malfunctioning institutions deep rooted political grievances or any other obvious yet unobserved and time persistent determinants of war are simply assumed away we find a statistically significant and economically important negative effect of foreign aid flows on the probability of ongoing civil conflicts to continue the continuation probability such that increasing aid flows tends to decrease civil conflict duration we do not find a significant relationship between aid flows and the probability of civil conflicts to start the onset probability

the long run effects of oil wealth on development evidence from petroleum geology we estimate the long run effects of oil wealth on development by exploiting spatial variation in sedimentary basins areas where petroleum can potentially form instrumental variables estimates indicate that oil production impedes democracy and fiscal capacity development increases corruption and raises gdp per capita without significantly harming the non resource sectors of the economy we find no evidence that oil production increases internal armed conflict coup attempts or political purges in several specifications failure to account for endogeneity leads to substantial underestimation of the adverse effects of oil suggesting that countries with higher quality political institutions and greater fiscal capacity disproportionately select into oil production

citations in economics measurement uses and impacts i describe and compare sources of data on citations in economics and the statistics derived from them constructing data sets of the post publication citation histories of articles published in the top five journals in the 1970s and 2000s i examine distributions and life cycles of citations compare citation histories of articles in different subspecialties in economics and present evidence on the history and heterogeneity of those journals impacts and the marginal citation productivity of additional coauthors i use a new data set of the lifetime citation histories of over 1 000 economists from thirty universities to rank economics departments by various measures and demonstrate the importance of intra and interdepartmental heterogeneity in productivity throughout the discussion summarizes earlier work including the impacts of citations on salaries and nonmonetary rewards and how citations reflect judgments about research quality in economics and the importance of economic ideas

out of the ashes into the fire the consequences of u s weapons sales for political violence abstract we examine the effect of u s weapons purchases on political violence in 191 countries during the period 1970 2008 our identification strategy exploits exogenous shifts in the cost of purchasing u s commercial weapons through a combination of time variation in u s inflation and cross sectional variation in a country s historical frequency of purchases we find that weapons purchases reduce the likelihood of political repression but increase the likelihood of onset of civil war in purchasing countries the results suggest that state investment in military capability incites civil war in countries where state repression of an aggrieved opposition would have otherwise prevailed