democracy volatility and economic development growth stability is an important objective because development requires sustained increases in income because volatility is costly for the poor and because volatility deters growth we study the determinants of average growth and its volatility as a two equation system and find that higher levels of democracy and diversification lower volatility whereas volatility itself reduces growth muslim countries instrument for democracy and measures of diversification identify volatility in contrast to the lack of consensus on the democracy growth relationship the democracy stability link is robust rather than focus on growth this paper forges an alternative link between democracy and development through the volatility channel

deforestation and the rule of law in a cross section of countries relationships between deforestation and population pressure income growth and insecure property rights are examined with data from 120 countries insecure property rights are hypothesized to arise from two sources government instability or inability to enforce ownership and an absence of government accountability the former source is captured by measures of general lawlessness such as guerrilla warfare revolution and frequent constitutional change the latter is proxied by variables indicating the type of government executive frequency of political purges and the existence of an elected legislature general support is indicated for the property rights hypothesis and for the effects of population growth

global foreign direct investment flows the role of governance infrastructure abstract it is widely argued that a country s economic performance over time is determined to a great extent by its political institutional and legal environment we refer to these institutions and policies as the governance infrastructure of a country we utilize newly developed indices to examine the effects of governance infrastructure on both foreign direct investment fdi inflows and outflows for a broad sample of developed and developing countries over 1995 97 in addition we examine the role of other forms of infrastructure including human capital and the environment the results clearly indicate that governance infrastructure is an important determinant of both fdi inflows and outflows investments in governance infrastructure not only attract capital but also create the conditions under which domestic multinational corporations emerge and invest abroad it would appear that investments in governance infrastructure are subject to diminishing returns so that the benefits in terms of inflows are most pronounced for smaller and developing economies

economic development and the division of production between households and markets a model is presented in which scale economies give market production a cost advantage over household production but in which market production is limited by the extent of the market the production process is viewed as a series of stages each further refining and specializing the product of the previous stage as processing proceeds the number of intermediate goods increases and markets thin out firms specialize in the early stages of production and house holds in the later stages as an economy grows production shifts out of households and into the market several other changes associated with economic development are also accounted for

why and how fdi stocks are a biased measure of mne affiliate activity many international business ib studies have used foreign direct investment fdi stocks to measure the aggregate value adding activity of multinational enterprises mne affiliates in host countries we argue that fdi stocks are a biased measure of that activity because the degree to which they overestimate or underestimate affiliate activity varies systematically with host country characteristics first most fdi into countries that serve as tax havens generate no actual productive activity thus fdi stocks in such countries overestimate affiliate activity second fdi stocks do not include locally raised external funds funds widely used in countries with well developed financial markets or volatile exchange rates resulting in an underestimation of affiliate activity in such countries finally the extent to which fdi translates into affiliate activity increases with affiliate labor productivity so in countries where labor is more productive fdi stocks also result in an underestimation of affiliate activity we test these hypotheses by first regressing affiliate value added and affiliate sales on fdi stocks to calculate a country specific mismatch and then by regressing this mismatch on a host country s tax haven status level of financial market development exchange rate volatility and affiliate labor productivity all hypotheses are supported implying that fdi stocks are a biased measure of mne affiliate activity and hence that the results of fdi data based studies of such activity need to be reconsidered

determinants of international activity evidence from the chemical processing industry abstract this paper empirically investigates two important determinants of international activity through wholly owned operations joint ventures and technology licensing namely country risk and intellectual property rights iprs protection using a comprehensive database on investments in chemical plants during the period 1981 1996 we show that higher levels of country risk are associated with less activity into recipient economies the analysis also suggests that international activity with smaller resource commitment tends to be preferred in countries with higher levels of risk and that multinational investment is more responsive to changes in risk conditions than indigenous investment after controlling for several country characteristics we do not find iprs protection playing a significant role in fostering international activity or conditioning its mode

starting even job mobility and the wage gap between young single males and females standard econometric analysis of male female earnings differentials ignores job mobility despite its vital role in theories of discrimination and its demonstrated importance in explaining the earnings of young men this paper develops a model of male and female earnings and job mobility and estimates it for young single men and women in canada using the 1981 survey of work history the results corrected for sample selection bias arising from job mobility suggest that male and female earnings determination differs considerably by job mobility status returns to mobility are much greater for males than for females the results also show significantly different mobility behaviour for men and women but if anything females are more mobile than males faced with the same earnings opportunities thus differential job mobility behaviour does not appear to account for any portion of the male female earnings gap

educational screening by certificates an empirical test this paper argues that the relevant test of wage screening effects should be based on educational certificates rather than years of schooling this is because information conveyed to firms about individual productivity through years of schooling is not sufficiently refined for making individual wage offer decisions although it may be useful for making hiring decisions

intellectual property protection market orientation and location of overseas r d activities by multinational enterprises abstract this paper develops an analytical framework to explain the determinants of location of overseas research and development r d by multinational enterprises mnes in terms of the nature and extent of foreign direct investment fdi and host country resources and policy regimes empirical findings for us mnes suggest that mnes prefer to locate their r d activities in countries that are able to offer them among other things larger markets technological resources and infrastructure host market oriented affiliates are more likely to have r d units than the export oriented ones especially in developing countries the relative strength of the patent regime appears to affect the direction rather than the magnitude of r d investments made in a country

foreign direct investment and intellectual property rights evidence from hollywood s global distribution of movies and videos abstract traditional thinking about intellectual property rights ipr suggests that as a country strengthens its ipr standards firms will move their governance structures away from equity based institutions such as foreign direct investment fdi towards more market based relations such as licensing agreements this hypothesis is explored by examining the behavior of hollywood studios in both the feature film and video markets in 40 foreign countries the analysis reveals that the behavior of hollywood studios is more complex than this although moderate iprs are associated with a high degree of licensing both high and low standards of ipr encourage more integrated governance structures

the rise of europe atlantic trade institutional change and economic growth the rise of western europe after 1500 is due largely to growth in countries with access to the atlantic ocean and with substantial trade with the new world africa and asia via the atlantic this trade and the associatedcolonialism affected europe not only directly but also indirectly by inducing institutional change where initial political institutions those established before 1500 placed significant checks on the monarchy the growth of atlantic trade strengthened merchant groups by constraining the power of the monarchy and helped merchants obtain changes in institutions to protect property rights these changes were central to subsequent economic growth

the composition of foreign direct investment and protection of intellectual property rights evidence from transition economies while existing literature has examined the impact of intellectual property protection on the volume of foreign direct investment fdi little is known about its effect on the composition of fdi inflows the author addresses this question empirically using a unique firm level data set from eastern europe and the former soviet union she finds that weak protection deters foreign investors in technology intensive sectors that rely heavily on intellectual property rights the results also indicate that a weak intellectual property regime encourages investors to undertake projects focusing on distribution rather than local production the latter effect is present in all sectors not just those relying heavily on intellectual property protection

determinants of patent rights a cross national study abstract this paper presents an index of patent rights for 110 countries for the period 1960 1990 the index is used to examine what factors or characteristics of economies determine how strongly patent rights will be protected the evidence does indicate that more developed economies tend to provide stronger protection but the underlying factors which influence patent protection levels are the country s level of research and development r d activity market environment and international integration which are correlated with its level of development the results qualify however that r d activity influences patent protection levels after a nation s research sector reaches a critical size an implication of this is that to raise patent protection levels in weakly protecting countries it is important to foster a significant research base in those countries and thereby create incentives for protecting patent rights

intellectual property rights and foreign direct investment abstract this paper develops a product cycle model with endogenous innovation imitation and foreign direct investment fdi we use this model to determine how stronger intellectual property rights ipr protection in the south affects innovation imitation and fdi we find that stronger ipr protection keeps multinationals safer from imitation but no more so than northern firms instead the increased difficulty of imitation generates resource wasting and imitation disincentive effects that reduce both fdi and innovation the greater resources absorbed in imitation crowd out fdi reduced fdi then transmits resource scarcity in the south back to the north and consequently contracts innovation

extensive and intensive growth in a neoclassical framework abstract extensive growth based on the expansion of inputs is likely to be subject to diminishing returns therefore it is often viewed as having no effect on per capita magnitudes in the long run this essay argues that periods of extensive growth through capital accumulation may be a precursor to periods of intensive growth during which output per unit of input grows through endogenous technical change such a sequence of stages of development occurs as capital accumulation affects the incentives to engage in labor saving technical change a steady rise in the capital labor ratio affects the relative scarcity of factors of production their expected relative price and induces innovation investments

intellectual property rights foreign direct investment and industrial development this paper develops a north south product cycle model in which innovation imitation and the ow of fdi are all endogenously determined in the model a strengthening of ipr protection in the south reduces the rate of imitation and it increases the ow of fdi indeed

indeterminacy and increasing returns abstract we investigate properties of the one sector growth model with increasing returns under two organizational structures capable of reconciling the existence of aggregate increasing returns with competitive behavior by firms the first involves input externalities the second involves monopolistic competition we show for parameters in close accord with recent literature on real business cycles that the model displays an indeterminate steady state that can be exploited to generate a model of business fluctuations driven by self fulfilling beliefs in our first class of models growth is generated by exogenous increases in factor productivity in the second class the marginal product of capital is large enough for endogenous growth journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 o40

critical survey endogenous growth theory a critical assessment a critical assessment is made of endogenous growth theory from the perspective of recent developments within economics as a discipline these include its increasing mathematical formalisation its focus upon microfoundations the casual use of econometrics to test models and the incorporation of factors that have traditionally been outside mainstream economics it is found that the theory focuses upon market imperfections and technological progress in a variety of ways and reconstructs their impact upon the macroeconomy as a growth rather than as a level effect whilst the growth rate is endogenised this leads to the problem of multiple equilibria and extremely complex dynamics the generalisation from exogenous growth theory is however associated with even more extreme assumptions and analytical distance from the socioeconomic processes of growth itself copyright 2000 by oxford university press

political regimes and economic growth arguments that relate regimes to growth focus on property rights pressures for immediate consumption and the autonomy of dictators while everyone seems to agree that secure property rights foster growth it is controversial whether democracies or dictatorships better secure these rights the main mechanism by which democracy is thought to hinder growth is pressure for immediate consumption which reduces investment only states that are institutionally insulated from such pressures can resist them and democratic states are not the main argument against dictatorships is that authoritarian rulers have no interest in maximizing total output these views are summarized in turn

non optimality of the friedman rule and optimal taxation in a growing economy with imperfect competition abstract this paper shows that if capital generates production externality there exists a wedge between returns to money and to capital driving the friedman rule is not optimal however in the absence of capital externality the friedman rule may be valid even under imperfect competition

a rostovian model of endogenous growth and underdevelopment traps the paper presents a model which combines self sustained growth and underdevelopment traps into a common analytical framework we provide an analytical interpretations to rostow s observation that there is a decisive interval in the history of a society when growth becomes its normal condition and to the empirical evidence that some countries seem not to have achieved this stage yet the model exhibits aggregate non convexities and thresholds which separate a region where growth is solow type with convergence to a stationary steady state from a region where growth is romer type with endogenous self sustained growth in some critical stages of development there exist multiple equilibrium trajectories consistent with alternative sets of self fulfilling beliefs

occupational mobility and the distribution of occupational success among young men interpretation of the distribution of occupational success depends crucially on an understanding of the process of mobility if the holders of low paying jobs this year are just as likely as anyone else to hold good jobs next year then the lower tail of the earnings distribution is not a matter of great social concern further if the distribution of success is primarily determined by a random process the prospects for a significant reduction in the inequality of earnings are unfavorable on the other hand high mobility in the short run may conceal systematic stratification of the labor force it may be that the same individuals spend most of their time in the worst jobs if so luck and random events may play a small role in the distribution of well being inequality may be a major issue and the elimination of stratification may hold out the promise of an important reduction in inequality simple tabulation of distributions of success and of mobility among categories of success cannot answer the basic question of the role of stratification in this paper we develop a model and statistical method for studying mobility and relating it to characteristics upon which stratification may be based our study rests on annual interviews conducted from 1966 through 1969 with about 3 000 white males born between 1942 and 1952 1 we find that mobility is closely related to personal characteristics especially intelligence and education men with high iqs and extensive education are more likely to move to high paying jobs and are more likely to remain in them nevertheless random events dominate the distribution of occupational success in the short run our results strongly support the finding of christopher jencks and his collaborators that redistribution of the determinants of earnings would do almost nothing to reduce the observed inequality of annual earnings

r d implementation and stagnation a schumpeterian theory of convergence clubs we use schumpeterian growth theory to account for the divergence in per capita income that has taken place between countries since the mid 19th century as well as for the convergence that took place amongst the richest countries during the second half of the 20th century the argument is based on the premise that technological change underwent a fundamental transformation in the 19th century associated with new scientific ideas and the increasingly scientific content of new technologies countries then sorted themselves into three convergence groups r d implementation and stagnation a country s group membership depends on initial conditions as well as on fundamentals

industrial development and the convergence question the paper studies endogenous world balanced growth equilibria in which national learning productivity differentials govern relative per capita products learning productivities depend on the national share of world specialized goods production national and world scale and familiarity with the foreign economy familiarity indexes the extent to which imported specialized goods enhance learning productivity we find that mutual familiarization causes per capita products to converge unfamiliar economies diverge substantially and persistently unilateral familiarization of a less developed country ldc with the leading economy causes the ldc to catch up to and even overtake the leader

institutional framework and public enterprise performance abstract the purpose of this paper is to derive on the basis of available literature on successful enterprises some conjectures tentative generalizations with regard to the strategic factors and in particular the characteristics of the decision structure and processes that account for good public enterprise performance in the mining and manufacturing sector section 2 deals with the decision framework and section 3 with the motivational and inducement mechanisms the impact of distributional pressures on decision making is discussed in section 4 and the role of ideology in section 5 some concluding observations are made in section 6

endogenous growth and intermediation in an archipelago economy a general equilibrium model based on the parable of an economy of many islands shows the market imperfections in the intermediation activity affect economic growth and possibly prevent take off into sustained growth the inhabitants of different islands accumulate heterogeneous assets and transportation type intermediation allows for better allocation of the productive resources the development process is accompanied by a reduction in intermediation costs which induces firms to adopt more efficient techniques and sustains economic growth a laissez faire economy suffers from two distortions the existence of market imperfections and a thick market externality

human capital job matching and earnings growth between jobs an empirical analysis the process of job matching is complementary to human capital investment in determining earnings growth over the individual job history change in earnings associated with moving between jobs is portrayed as a result of matching in this paper the idea of job matching is refined to distinguish between job matching within firms and job matching across firms the derived hypotheses are supported by empirical results of a causal model which controls for human capital and personal endowment variables

import substitution and late industrialization latin america and asia compared abstract asymmetries between the profit risk perceptions of foreign and domestic investors are unavoidable aspects of late development import substitution strategies that try to advance industrialization by compensating for the asymmetries have therefore been part of the development efforts of asian and latin american nics current explanations of the greater success of asian nics with isi are examined and an alternative is advanced that stresses the impact of culture and history on consumer preference formation and through this on the survival and modernizing of craft industry partial evidence plus suggestions for deeper testing are offered

financial development growth and the distribution of income a paradigm is presented in which both the extent of financial intermediation and the rate of economic growth are endogenously determined financial intermediation promotes growth because it allows a higher rate of return to be earned on capital and growth in turn provides the means to implement costly financial structures thus financial intermediation and economic growth are inextricably linked in accord with the goldsmith mckinnon shaw view on economic development the model also generates a development cycle reminiscent of the kuznet hypothesis in particular in the transition from a primitive slow growing economy to a developed fast growing one a nation passes through a stage in which the distribution of wealth across the rich and poor widens

intellectual property rights and quality improvement this paper explores why theories about the effects of intellectual property rights ipr protection on foreign direct investment fdi and innovation have reached mixed conclusions in our model northern firms innovate to improve the quality of existing products and may later shift production to the south through fdi southern firms may then imitate the products of multinationals we find that imitation can increase fdi and innovation for quality improvements whereas the opposite occurs when innovators develop new varieties hence stronger ipr protection by reducing imitation may shift innovation away from improvements in existing products toward development of new products

imitation costs and patents an empirical study it has long been recognised that the costs of imitating new products have an important effect on the incentives for innovation in a market economy as arrow i962 and others have pointed out if firms can imitate an innovation at a cost that is substantially below the cost to the innovator of developing the innovation there may be little or no incentive for the innovator to carry out the innovation in their discussions of the innovation process economists frequently have called attention to the major role played by the costs of imitation but there has been little or no attempt to measure these costs to test various hypotheses concerning the factors influencing them or to estimate their effects in this paper we report some findings of what seems to be the first study of this topic in addition we present data regarding the effects of patents on imitation costs and on the rate of innovation

intellectual property rights and foreign direct investment a welfare analysis abstract this paper examines how intellectual property rights ipr protection affects innovation and foreign direct investment fdi using a north south quality ladder model incorporating the exogenous and costless imitation of technology and subsidy policies for both r d and fdi we show that for the interior steady state to be stable either r d or fdi subsidy rates must be positive our findings also indicate that strengthening ipr protection promotes both innovation and fdi moreover a strengthening of ipr protection can also improve welfare if the initial ipr protection in the south is weak and the r d subsidy rate is not too high

stages of growth in economic development abstract the paper analyses a two sector model of endogenous growth with two common features of economic development stages of sustained growth and underdevelopment traps the model also demonstrates the transitional issues of a temporary underdevelopment trap seemingly sustainable growth and a slowdown in productivity growth the temporary underdevelopment trap occurs when an economy exhibits a regime of extensive growth i e slowly declining growth in physical capital with no growth in human capital but thereafter starts a transition to sustained growth seemingly sustainable growth happens when an economy exhibits a regime of intensive growth i e both capitals grow initially but the growth of human capital subsequently ceases and the economy eventually finds itself in a zero growth trap the model also exhibits the possibility of a slowdown in productivity growth as a temporary phenomenon during the transition from the low growth stage to the high growth stage of an economy facing a new industrial revolution

the newly industrializing countries in the international system explanations of the growth of the newly industrializing countries nics by neoclassical economists and dependency theorists neglect the role of politics in shaping development strategies different social configurations state structures and ideas about development help explain the divergent policy choices made by the export oriented east asian nics korea and taiwan and the more inward looking countries of latin america particularly mexico and brazil these different strategic choices in turn account for variations in the patterns of external dependency that characterize countries in the two regions

long term trends in the world economy the gender dimension abstract this paper considers the implications of long term trends in the international economy for the relative employment and income of men and women in developed and developing countries we find that given a persistent gender division of labor mass unemployment in the north is due to different forces operating on men and women the rate of growth of men s jobs has fallen because of deindustrialization but men have not withdrawn from the labor force at a comparable rate women have been entering the labor force in feminized jobs at a faster rate than they have been created in the south women have largely taken traditionally feminized jobs in the labor intensive export oriented growing manufacturing sectors in latin america entry has been largely in the service sector men have been losing jobs in agriculture and domestic manufacturing the paper proposes that the optimal solution to the mass unemployment problem in the north as well as in the south and the apparent competition for jobs between the north and the south and between men and women lies in achieving a trend increase in the growth rate of oecd and world aggregate demand and output but such a trend rise in the long term rate of growth of demand would only be possible if there were new cooperative institutional arrangements within and between countries in such arrangements women need to have an important independent role

interaction between economic and financial development this paper presents a model of financial and economic development which assumes the consumption of real resources by the financial sector financial development occurs endogenously as the economy reaches a critical threshold of economic development compared to financial autarky financial intermediaries allocate savings net of their costs of operation to more productive investments whenever the technology financed by intermediaries is more capital intensive than that operated in financial autarky the growth effect of financial development is ambiguous as a result financial development may be unsustainable however when financial development is sustainable the credit market becomes more competitive and more efficient over time and this could eventually contribute to economic growth nonetheless given monopolistic competition in the financial sector the level of entry into the credit market is generally inefficient for instance with diminishing returns to specialisation entrants might be too few at the early stages of economic development and too many later on

capital mobility and underdevelopment traps abstract in a two country model with threshold effects we study the robustness of underdevelopment traps to capital mobility it is shown that capital mobility can make a country cross the threshold and bifurcate toward sustained growth subject to household expectations another result is however that a multiplicity of growth patterns such as long run divergence and convergence clubs can co exist with perfect capital mobility hence with an identical rate of return across countries in this model efficient development policies are a combination of first liberalization as capital mobility makes growth possible and second government intervention coordinating expectations into self fulfilling growth beliefs

you paid for the skills now keep them tuition reimbursement and voluntary turnover does investing in employees marketable skills reduce turnover this study uses insights from human capital theory to explain how general skill development and promotion relate to voluntary turnover data from 9 439 salaried employees of a large manufacturer show that participation in tuition reimbursement reduces turnover while employees are in school voluntary turnover increases when individuals earn graduate degrees but is significantly reduced if they are subsequently promoted

how trade related are intellectual property rights abstract there is little empirical evidence about whether differing international levels of patent protection influence trade flows if a nation strengthens its patent laws it could experience higher or lower imports we specify an empirical model in which deviations of bilateral sectoral imports from anticipated levels are related to income trade barriers and patent laws patent regulations in the importing country are corrected for endogeneity through the use of instrumental variables the results of the final equations indicate that increasing patent protection has a positive impact on bilateral manufacturing imports into both small and large developing economies

interindustry mobility after migration theory and application this study examines the interindustry mobility of jewish immigrants who arrived in israel between 1948 and 1952 from five middle eastern countries as individuals and as groups short term effects are avoided by comparing industrial employment before migration to industrial employment in 1961 approximately 10 years after arrival excerpt

determinants of foreign direct investment a tale of nine theoretical models abstract this paper presents a review of nine theoretical models of foreign direct investment fdi discussed are early studies of determinants of fdi 1 as well as determinants of fdi based on the neoclassical trade theory 2 ownership advantages 3 aggregate variables 4 the ownership location and internalization advantage framework 5 horizontal and vertical fdi models 6 the knowledge capital model 7 diversified fdi and risk diversification models 8 and policy variables 9 from each of the nine theories the relevant determinants of fdi are derived empirical studies indicate the importance of these determinants in the real world the paper shows that there is not one single theory of fdi but a variety of theoretical models attempting to explain fdi and the location decision of multinational firms therefore any analysis of determinants of fdi should not be based on a single theoretical model instead fdi should be explained more broadly by a combination of factors from a variety of theoretical models such as ownership advantages or agglomeration economics market size and characteristics cost factors transport costs protection risk factors and policy variables

how do foreign patent rights affect u s exports affiliate sales and licenses abstract this paper analyzes how foreign patent rights fprs affect us exports affiliate sales and licenses our approach is distinctive in three ways we apply ownership location and internalization concepts to link fprs with servicing decisions we account for the simultaneity of servicing decisions we estimate the relative effects of fprs on exports affiliate sales and licenses empirical findings show strong fprs increase us affiliate sales and licenses particularly across countries with strong imitative abilities further fprs have a larger effect on us knowledge transferred outside the country and firm relative to knowledge located inside the country and internalized inside the firm

governance infrastructure and us foreign direct investment this paper examines the statistical importance of governance infrastructure as a determinant of us foreign direct investment fdi in broad terms governance infrastructure represents attributes of legislation regulation and legal systems that condition freedom of transacting security of property rights and transparency of government and legal processes our econometric analysis uses a two stage estimation procedure in the first stage the probability that a country is an fdi recipient is estimated the results indicate that countries that fail to achieve a minimum threshold of effective governance are unlikely to receive any us fdi countries that receive no us fdi are typically countries that do not promote free and transparent markets that have ineffective governments and that often have legal systems that are not rooted in english common law in the second stage the analysis is restricted to those countries that did receive fdi flows the estimated equations focus on the determinants of the amount of fdi received given that a country is a recipient of us fdi governance infrastructure including the nature of the legal system is an important determinant of the amount received

contracts intellectual property rights and multinational investment in developing countries abstract the policy debate between multinational firms favoring strong contract law and host country governments who often oppose such protection motivates the paper local agents managers learn the multinational s technology and can defect to start a rival firm contract enforcement including binding the multinational itself makes the multinational better off outcomes for the host country are more complex depending on mode switches induced by enforcement if enforcement induces the multinational to switch from exporting to local production welfare improves if local production was occurring anyway enforcement may result in the loss of rents to local agents and lower welfare

market culture and authority a comparative analysis of management and organization in the far east three frameworks purport to explain industrial arrangements and practices a market approach that emphasizes economic characteristics a cultural approach that sees organization as the expression of patterned values and an authority approach that explains organization as a historically developed structure of domination the efficacy of each approach is tested in explaining the organizational structures of three rapidly growing east asian economies japan south korea and taiwan the paper argues through comparative analysis that organizational growth is best explained by market and cultural factors but that authority patterns and legitimation strategies best explain organizational structure

nonlinear economic growth some theory and cross country evidence abstract this paper aims to test the existence of different growth regimes that is of different relationships between growth rate and income level we propose a simple nonlinear growth model and test its empirical implications by estimating markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels we show that growth is indeed nonlinear a first phase of slow or zero growth is followed by a take off and finally by a phase of deceleration we discuss the relevance of these results with respect to the issue of convergence and reversibility of development in the light of models of structural change and technological diffusion

thresholds of financial development in the euro area we analyse the dynamics of financial development and economic growth in the euro area as these countries went through considerably higher levels of financial development using a balanced panel data of 38 years from 1980 to 2018 we offer new evidence on the finance growth nexus we show the presence of non linearity as there is an inverted u shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run estimating the thresholds in the finance growth nexus we notice a threshold effect at 74 86 of gdp for domestic credit 51 of gdp for stock turnover ratio and 65 of gdp for stock market capitalisation we notice that exceeding the threshold causes deceleration in economic growth as too much finance results in crowding out effect for productive economic activities the panel granger causality test results show that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance these findings in the euro area provide some useful policy implications to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies