the economic characteristics of imf program countries abstract a logit analysis is utilized to identify the factors that characterized developing nations that entered imf stabilization programs in the early 1980s program countries recorded higher rates of domestic credit growth larger shares of government expenditure more severe current account deficits smaller reserve holdings and lower per capita incomes

the imf s role in structural adjustment in the 1980s conditional lending for structural adjustment in developing countries moved the imf beyond its role of macroeconomic crisis management fund supported adjustment programmes have often been flawed by a lack of distributional analysis and by poor sequencing of reforms notably premature financial liberalisation as a result they have caused avoidable hardship in addition the attempt to taper out aid as part of the reform programme leads to avoidable reductions in post stabilisation growth an important role for the fund in poststabilisation environments is to provide credible signals to private investors as macroeconomic crises spread across latin america and africa during the 1980s the imf became much more involved in low income countries whereas following its interventions in developed countries the fund had rapidly withdrawn post crisis in the low income countries its involvement became continuous this was partly because stabilisation often took longer however additionally by the 1980s it was already evident that whereas those poor countries which had adopted market based development strategies were developing those which had adopted inward oriented high regulation strategies were in decline unlike the economic crisis of 1998 the crises of the 1980s were concentrated among the inward orientated hence a reasonable diagnosis was that the crises were not merely manifestations of fiscal imbalance but that many other policies needed reform the task thus went beyond the conventional one of rectifying a crisis to reorienting a development strategy the fund joined with the world bank in an attempt to induce these reforms through sustained conditional lending hence the imf moved beyond its traditional role of short run macroeconomic crisis management fund and bank conditions were linked through cross conditionality but with the fund as the lead agency on many areas of policy this gave the fund a critical role in structural adjustment the fund s instrument for concessional lending in low income countries is its extended structural adjustment facility esaf in 1997 the board of the fund commissioned an external review of its esaf programmes in which we participated the report of the evaluation botchwey et al 1998 suggested three lines of criticism of fund adjustment programmes and these form the basis of our analysis in this paper the first is that through flawed design the programmes have sometimes had adverse consequences for the poor either directly through reducing incomes or indirectly through reductions in social service provision our criticism is of the sequence sometimes adopted by fund

catalytic finance when does it work in a model of debt crisis caused partly by creditor coordination failure we show that bailouts that reduce ex post inefficiency will sometimes enhance the incentives for governments to take costly adjustment effort this model helps us understand a debate about the role of the imf in catalyzing lending to developing countries

evolution of population resource dynamics models abstract this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of brander and taylor s 1998 model and its descendants from the following perspectives population growth substitutability innovation capital accumulation property rights and institutional designs and modeling approach this survey aims to contribute to a better understanding of population and resource dynamics models in general and facilitate further application of the model framework to relevant circumstances although often treated as exogenous in optimal growth models making population growth an endogenous function allows us to analyze broader effects of economic activities on population the issues of substitutability innovation and capital accumulation are intertwined allowing a model to address the effect of an endogenous technological change on substitutability between natural and man made capital facilitates our analyses of sustainability issues to address internalizing inter generational externalities in resource use incorporating property right changes and institutional designs to this type of model is a useful exercise but careful attention is needed for the consistency between such an arrangement and the mathematical representation of the depicted economy finally although the common criticism regarding convenient mathematical assumptions applies to the existing bt type models the use of computer simulation can relax such assumptions to better represent the intended relationships between the relevant variables

eco thermodynamics economics and the second law the laws of physics especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics have significant implications for economic theory the major implications of the first law conservation of mass energy are straightforward and have been discussed at length elsewhere in brief raw material inputs to economic processes are not consumed having been extracted from the environment in the first place they eventually return to the environment as wastes the economic implications of the second law entropy law are far more subtle there is considerable literature initiated by the work of georgescu roegen on the supposed constraints on economic growth imposed by the fact that economic processes utilize low entropy raw materials fossil fuels and high grade metal ores and discard high entropy wastes however as a practical matter the flux of available low entropy energy exergy from the sun is extremely large and certainly adequate to sustain economic activity in the solar system indefinitely even though fossil fuel and metal ore stocks may eventually be exhausted it is argued in this paper that the real economic significance of the second law lies in the fact that exergy is i not conserved and ii is a useful common measure of resource quality as well as quantity applicable to both materials and energy thus exergy can be used to measure and compare resource inputs and outputs including wastes and losses this is potentially important in itself moreover since exergy is not conserved it is truly consumed i e used up in economic processes hence exergy is no less a factor of production than labor or capital this fact has strong implications for economic growth theory especially with regard to assessing the role of technical progress

catalyzing aid the imf and donor behavior in aid allocation the international monetary fund imf has often asserted that its programs encourage aid by signaling policy credibility commonly referred to as aid catalysis our study investigates this claim for sector specific aid and for bilateral and multilateral donors using data on 136 recipient countries for the 1986 2009 period we employ a two part quantitative model to match the donor decision making process consisting of a first stage recipient selection equation and a second stage allocation equation on selected recipients we find strong support that imf programs catalyze aid on aggregate but the evidence varies across different types of aid aid catalysis is stronger and more robust in sectors linked to the imf s core competency areas namely debt related relief and general budget support but weaker and less robust for infrastructure production multisector and humanitarian aid and non existent for health and education across donors imf programs are associated with increases in aid by countries with larger voting shares in the imf such as the united states and japan but less so by countries with few votes or for multilateral agencies this finding is consistent with research in international political economy arguing that the imf s powerful stakeholders drive the organization s decisions and policies taken together our findings emphasize the imf s multi dimensional impact on the global development agenda an erstwhile overlooked factor in studies of aid allocation while refuting the purported positive effects of imf programs on aid for social policy

borrowing from the imf the policy implications of recent empirical research abstract at a time when the future of the international monetary fund is being widely debated a number of relevant and important studies have been published which advance our knowledge of the factors which determine borrowing from the fund there has been little attempt however to put this recent empirical research into context or to extract from it appropriate policy conclusions while dissent remains over some issues there is an emerging consensus on others which provides a firm empirical foundation for policy formulation unfortunately the policy stance adopted by the g7 is in many ways at odds with much of the recent empirical research

is neoclassical microeconomics formally valid an approach based on an analogy with equilibrium thermodynamics abstract the relation between thermodynamics and economics is a paramount issue in ecological economics two different levels can be distinguished when discussing it formal and substantive at the formal level a mathematical framework is used to describe both thermodynamic and economic systems at the substantive level thermodynamic laws are applied to economic processes in ecological economics there is a widespread claim that neoclassical economics has the same mathematical formulation as classical mechanics and is therefore fundamentally flawed because 1 utility does not obey a conservation law as energy does 2 an equilibrium theory cannot be used to study irreversible processes here we show that neoclassical economics is based on a wrong formulation of classical mechanics being in fact formally analogous to equilibrium thermodynamics the similarity between both formalisms namely that they are both cases of constrained optimisation is easily perceived when thermodynamics is looked upon using the tisza callen axiomatisation in this paper we take the formal analogy between equilibrium thermodynamics and economic systems far enough to answer the formal criticisms proving that the formalism of neoclassical economics has irreversibility embedded in it however the formal similarity between equilibrium thermodynamics and neoclassical microeconomics does not mean that economic models are in accordance with mass energy and entropy balance equations in fact neoclassical theory suffers from flaws in the substantive integration with thermodynamic laws as has already been fully demonstrated by valuable work done by ecological economists in this field

entropy and economic processes physics perspectives this paper is a contribution to the discussion on the relation between thermodynamics and economic theory with respect to thermodynamic constraints on the economy there are two diametrically opposite positions in this discussion one claims that the constraints are insignificant of no immediate practical importance for modelling and in the intermediate run do not limit economic activity and therefore need not be incorporated in the economic theory the other holds that thermodynamics tells us that there are practical limits to materials recycling which already puts bounds on the economy and therefore must be included in the economic models using the thermodynamic concept of entropy we show here that there are fundamental problems with both positions even in the long run entropy production associated with material dissipation need not be a limiting factor for economic development abundant energy resources from solar radiation may be used to recover dissipated elements with simple quantitative analysis we show that the rate of entropy production caused by human economic activities is very small compared to the continuous natural entropy production in the atmosphere and on the earth s surface further the societal entropy production is well within the range of natural variation it is possible to replace part of the natural entropy production with societal entropy production by making use of solar energy society consumes resources otherwise available for coming generations however future generations need not have less resources available to them than the present generation human industrial activities could be transformed into a sustainable system where the more abundant elements are industrially used and recycled using solar energy as the driving resource an economic theory fit to guide industrial society in that development must not disregard thermodynamics nor must it overstate the consequences of the laws of thermodynamics 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

energy aesthetics and knowledge in complex economic systems it is argued that the fact that economic systems are dissipative structures must be taken fully into account in economics if we are to understand the nature of the economic ecological interface and how to deal with emergent environmental problems such as global warming such problems are a product of economic growth which is widely accepted to be the outcome of the acquisition and application of knowledge drawing upon disparate literatures within and outside economics it is argued that economic growth should be more properly viewed as the outcome of a co evolutionary process that involves the autocatalytic interaction of new knowledge and access of increasing amounts of free energy to do increasingly specialized forms of work specifically the relevance of the energy hypothesis associated with erwin schrodinger and more recently revived by eric schneider and his collaborators is assessed this hypothesis states that all dissipative structures have as their primary objective the reduction of accessible free energy gradients it is concluded that such a hypothesis cannot be rejected in the context of economic behaviour and that this opens up an important research agenda for economists

world bank lending and other financial flows is there a connection at a time when there is a serious debate about reforming the international financial architecture it is important to understand how existing multilateral agencies affect financial flows to emerging and less developed countries this paper extends past research which has focused on the international monetary fund by examining the various mechanisms through which the world bank may be associated with other financial flows and by presenting new empirical evidence based on regression analysis little support is found for a positive connection the implications of this finding for effective reform of the bank and its various activities are then discussed

entropy limits to growth and the prospects for weak sustainability in this paper we analyze the consequences of mass and energy conservation and the second law of thermodynamics for economic activity in contrast to former studies we deduce our results formally from a general model of production and consumption we show that in a static setting for economies containing irreversible processes a non zero resource input as well as non zero emissions are necessary to sustain a positive level of consumption we generalize this result to a dynamic setting and apply it to the growth discussion and the sustainability discourse thereby we show that limits to growth of production and consumption are likely to exist and that the concept of weak sustainability is either morally unattractive or physically infeasible d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

evolutionary theories in environmental and resource economics approaches and applications recent advances in evolutionary theory have important implications for environmental economics a short overview is offered of evolutionarythinking in economics subsequently major concepts and approaches inevolutionary biology and evolutionary economics are presented andcompared attention is devoted among others to darwinian selection punctuated equilibrium sorting mechanisms lamarckian evolution coevolution and self organization basic features of evolution such assustained change irreversible change unpredictability qualitativechange and disequilibrium are examined it is argued that there are anumber of fundamental differences as well as similarities betweenbiological and economic evolution next some general implications ofevolutionary thinking for environmental economics are outlined this isfollowed by a more detailed examination of potential uses ofevolutionary theories in specific areas of environmental economics including sustainability and long run development theories technologyand environment ecosystem management and resilience spatial evolutionand environmental processes and design of environmental policy

global energy modelling a biophysical approach gemba part 1 an overview of biophysical economics abstract economists investors and policy makers need to understand energy systems and the potential for investment in both alternative energy supply and demand side technologies biophysical economics has contributed to conventional economics by incorporating thermodynamic and ecological principles and emphasising the importance of natural resources to economic processes this paper is presented in two parts part 1 gives a historic review of biophysical economics and discusses some previous models of the energy economy system built around the principles of biophysical economics part 2 presents the gemba model a new modelling methodology in the biophysical economics tradition the methodology proposes a new and important contribution to the field of biophysical economics a lifetime evolving function for the dynamics of the energy return on investment eroi the dynamic eroi function was incorporated into the gemba model and implemented in vensim the model is calibrated using historical energy production data i e trained to historical data the trained model is run to 2100 under a variety of assumptions regarding availability of energy resources and corresponding eroi s the main finding of the model is that growth of the renewable energy sector may impact investment in other areas of the economy and thereby stymie economic growth

from groundless universalism to grounded generalism improving ecological economic indicators of human environmental interaction abstract ecological economics occasionally makes universal claims about how to understand and measure change in systems of human environmental interaction in terms of environmental policy one of the most influential universal concepts that has come out of the ecological economics literature recently is ecological efficiency or eco efficiency this article uses eco efficiency as a vehicle to illustrate that universal indicators of human environmental interaction are theoretically unfounded and practically problematic population ecology and neo classical economics are identified as two theoretical approaches that have contributed to the emergence of universal concepts such as eco efficiency the limited applicability of the approaches is highlighted by putting them in comparative context with approaches that make less universal claims namely systems ecology and institutional economics investigating indicators of human environmental interaction from disciplinary perspectives that are rarely found in indicator literature offers novel insights on what indicators are for and how they should be applied the article concludes with a call for scale sensitive generalization in the development of future indicators

introduction aid and development the debate on the impact of aid on the economies of developing countries is a rapidly evolving one early studies by e g papanek 1972 reported a positive impact of aid on growth within a multiple regression context this conclusion allowed policy makers to entertain the possibility that poverty across the world could be largely eradicated that countries could be moved out of poverty through the allocation of aid and that the following of successful policies would allow them to generate increased prosperity from their own resources unfortunately after some thirty years the poor are still with us poverty shows relatively little signs of disappearing and until recently enthusiasm for aid amongst donors had declined the papers in this symposium examine the effectiveness of aid in the past and its potential in the future a number of economic studies help explain this apparent failure mosley et al 1987 found it impossible to establish any significant relationship between aid and the growth rate of developing countries they suggested that this might be because of the possibility of leakages into non productive expenditure in the public sector and the transmission of negative price effects to the private sector they also argued for the targeting of aid i e its allocation to countries where it would be used most effectively boone 1996 concluded that aid does not significantly increase growth nor benefit the poor it did however increase the size of the government but again the message was not entirely negative in terms of what aid could achieve and argued for the targeting of aid this time at liberal democratic regimes as they appeared more effective in for example reducing infant mortality hence until recently the dominant view within economics had become pessimistic with respect to the past effectiveness of aid but somewhat optimistically perhaps held out the hope for improvement on the basis of aid targeting more recently however work by burnside and dollar 2000 was to put forward a more optimistic view of the former they concluded that aid had a positive impact on growth for developing countries with good fiscal monetary and trade policies in place but had little impact for those countries who were following poor policies this therefore partially at least provided an explanation of why aid had been found to have little positive impact on growth in previous empirical work it also provided specific criteria for targeting aid this was then built upon by collier and dollar 2001 2002 who calculated a poverty efficient allocation of aid which focused on those countries with a combination of most poverty and best policies they suggested that targeting of aid in this manner would almost double its effectiveness in reducing poverty this work has had an extraordinary impact upon policy and easterly 2003 as well as dalgaard hansen and tarp dht in this symposium document how it

the effect of imf programmes on economic growth in low income countries an empirical analysis using an lic specific participation model we adopt a propensity score matching psm methodology to compare economic growth performance in countries with and without imf programmes over the period

winners and losers in russia s economic transition the transition to a market economy has produced a substantial and rapid change in the wage structure in russia household surveys taken before and after the transition indicate that overall wage inequality nearly doubled from 1991 to 1994 and has reached a level higher than that in the united states returns to both measured skills education occupation and unmeasured skills within groups have increased considerably skill premiums across experience groups however have become more compressed and relative wages of older workers have declined in addition female wages have declined relative to male wages across all percentiles of the wage distribution copyright 1998 by american economic association

the influence of elections on imf programme interruptions using panel data for 104 countries between 1975 and 1998 this article tries to explain interruptions of imf programmes around election dates in the recipient countries on average programmes seem to be more likely to break down before elections this increase in interruption probabilities is however less severe in more democratic countries in true democracies interruption frequencies are even lower prior to elections while no other political variables than elections and democracy were found to influence compliance systematically programme interruptions are significantly more likely in countries with high government consumption high levels of short term debt and low gdp per capita at programme initiation

a conceptual exergy based framework for assessing monitoring and designing a resource efficient agri food sector the sustainable development goals sdgs are a set of global goals targets and indicators set by the member states of the united nations and which are to be followed by governments the private sector and the civil society for the next 15 years here we present a framework in the form of a comprehensive step wise procedure that will expand the tools of policy makers to develop policies for the improvement of the resource use efficiency of the agri food sector ultimately these policies will contribute in achieving goal 12 of the sdgs ensure sustainable consumption and production patters while having an indirect impact on goal 2 end hunger achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture and on goal 13 take urgent action to combat climate change and its impact we illustrate the use of the framework on assessing the exergetic performance of a theoretical milk concentration process the framework can be used to apply exergy based indicators for pinpointing the hotspots in food production chains where the irreversible consumption of natural resources is substantial and for comparing the resource use efficiency of different system designs and configurations furthermore we list a number of other exergy based methodologies that are also of relevance in resource use efficiency assessment because they capture additional aspects such as economic performance which exergy analysis alone cannot address and with the potential of being integrated in this or a different framework finally we discuss potential policy related implications

the imf and the mobilisation of foreign aid abstract particularly in the context of the millennium development goals there has been much discussion of the association between the international monetary fund and bilateral aid flows what role should the fund be playing in helping to achieve the mdgs some observers have suggested that the fund should seek to reduce its role in poor countries and should be minimising its own lending they see aid donors taking on a larger role and present the imf and aid donors as substitutes others envisage a much bigger lending role for the fund this may hint at complementarities although this discussion raises important policy issues there are very few studies that examine the relationship empirically this paper attempts to help fill this gap it explores the extent to which the imf has had a catalytic effect on official development assistance and the potential channels through which catalysis might work it finds strong evidence of a positive association and suggests that this may have more to do with condit

considering the energy water and food nexus towards an integrated modelling approach the areas of energy water and food policy have numerous interwoven concerns ranging from ensuring access to services to environmental impacts to price volatility these issues manifest in very di

a dimensionally consistent aggregation framework for biophysical metrics abstract we develop a formal representation of the economy ecosystem interaction problem by distinguishing between stock flow and fund flux spaces georgescu roegen 1971 we then define dimensionless quantities in both the cardinal stock flow space and the ordinal fund flux space this leads to analytic definitions of natural capital and natural income in the fund flux space we show that a stock fund representation of the economy ecosystem interaction problem helps investigate aggregation properties of biophysical metrics in particular we show how a metric that is dimensionally consistent in the stock flow space can have dimensional problems in the fund flux space ecological footprint is used as an illustrative example finally we argue that dimensionally consistent metrics are keys to further the development of biophysical assessments as a tool for practical environmental policy

on the life cycle metaphor where ecology and economics diverge abstract there is an attractive analogy between nature and industry based on the similarity of natural functions and certain industrial activities for instance animals ingest eat and digest food finally there are metabolic wastes firms are analogous to organisms in several respects insofar as they consume material resources process digest them and produce output products and excrete wastes firms like organisms also compete with each other for resources curiously enough one of the apparent differences between natural and man made systems is actually not one like the industrial system the natural system does not recycle everything however there are at least four real and important differences between the biosphere ecology and the technosphere economy first there is no primary producer in the economic system analogous to what photosynthesizers play in the biosphere inputs to the economy are mostly natural resources capital services and labor second in the economic system output is a heterogeneous mix of manufactured products and services labor in economics is an input but not an output the economic system recycles much less than the ecological system but utilizes a far greater suite of elements in the biosphere there are no products as such growth is tantamount to accumulation of embodied solar exergy in the form of cellulose sugars lipids and proteins the biosphere produces only wastes and more of itself plus dead matter third in the biosphere there are no markets there is no medium of exchange like money and there is nothing analogous to paid labor exchanges are involuntary i e by predation parasitism or theft fourth evolution in nature is driven by differentiation by random mutations of the genome and darwinian selection based on reproductive success in economics differentiation is based on discovery invention and innovation by intelligent economic agents and selection is based on competition at the individual or firm level either way the economic system is not closely analogous to an ecosystem attempts to use ecological concepts in an economic context are often misleading and unjustified the paper discusses the implications of the eco eco mismatch for resource accounting and life cycle analysis

thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials energy fluxes polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales from sectoral to global computable general equilibrium cge models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future along an equilibrium path but they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium independent of radical technological or social change the alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use leontief type input output i o models i o models are unable to endogenize structural shifts changing i o coefficients however this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts postulated i o tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios or i o models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric macro drivers which can in principle be cge models explicit process analysis can be integrated in principle with i o models this hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics this is important to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future i o tables and generating materials energy and waste emissions coefficients explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of pure cge or i o models viz 1 aggregation errors 2 inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co product and co input relationships and 3 inability to reflect certain non linearities such as internal feedback loops

basic analytics of multilateral lending and surveillance abstract i analyse the role of multilateral financial institutions in a world of global capital markets assuming that they have an informational advantage over private lenders in the market for sovereign debt i show that the adverse selection problem in this market may be solved through certification if the multilateral agency does not care too much about borrower country welfare however with lending the private information of the agency will be revealed whatever its weighting of borrower welfare vs private lenders profits multilateral lending on concessional terms also alleviates the moral hazard problem that investment in creditworthy borrowers is reduced as private lenders seek to avoid ex post default by constraining credit

an analysis of drawings on the international monetary fund by developing countries the nature of relations between the imf and developing countries has come under close scrutiny in recent years this has partly been the result of the deteriorating economic situation in which a large number of non oil developing countries have found themselves a situation characterised by falling rates of economic growth increasing balance of payments deficits and rising debt service ratios and partly it has resulted from the particular but public experiences of a number of developing countries such as jamaica peru and tanzania in their dealings with the fund

a novel approach for analyzing the effectiveness of the r d capital for resource conservation comparative study on germany and uk electricity sectors abstract limited access to energy resources and increasing demand for mitigation of the environmental impacts have necessitated higher production efficiencies therefore the promotion of r d activities has been one of the main parts of national energy policies in this research work two methods are used for assessing the effectiveness of the r d capital on resource conservation first by developing the resource included knowledge production function of the energy sector and second through direct assessment of the functionality of resource productivity from r d capital based on official data provided by national statistical centers a comparative analysis has been conducted to examine the effectiveness of r d in the electricity generation sectors in the united kingdom and germany in these analyses non renewable exergy cost is used as an index of resource depletion and environmental burden it is shown that due to non economic energy transition policies the inclusion of the r d investment does not result in statistically meaningful elasticity of production for the r d capital however according to the second method it is shown that the r d investment in the united kingdom has been more effective in resource conservation than in germany possible reasons for such differences are discussed and recommendations for further investigations are presented

institutions foreign direct investment and domestic investment crowding out or crowding in studies of the relationship between fdi and domestic investment reach contradictory findings we argue that some of the conflicting evidence may be explained by the use of poor proxies for the theoretical concepts and questionable methodological choices we review the paper of morrissey and udomkerdmonkol published in this journal in 2012 improvements in the construction of the proxies and refinements in the estimation methodology reverse the finding of morrissey and udomkerdmonkol that fdi inflows crowd out domestic investment furthermore there is no strong evidence that good governance actually encourages domestic investment

catalysing private capital flows do imf programmes work as commitment devices in this article we examine whether imf programmes influence the ability of developing country issuers to tap international bond markets and if they improve spreads paid on the bonds issued we find that fund programmes do not provide a uniformly favourable signalling effect instead the evidence is most consistent with a positive effect of imf programmes when they are viewed as likely to lead to policy reform and when undertaken before economic fundamentals have deteriorated significantly the size of the fund s programme matters but the credibility of a joint commitment by the country and the imf appears to be critical enhancing its members access to international capital markets is widely regarded as an important objective of the international monetary fund imf or fund though the objective is not an explicitly stated purpose in the fund s articles of agreements the flow of international capital is essential to such stated purposes as the stability of the international monetary system efficient trade and productive resource use and to providing confidence when a member country experiences difficulties with its balance of payments 1 the fund s interest in private international capital flows has moreover increased over the last decade reflecting this evolution the fund s former managing

physical energy cost serves as the invisible hand governing economic valuation direct evidence from biogeochemical data and the u s metal market abstract energy supply is mandatory for the production of economic value nevertheless tradition dictates that an enigmatic invisible hand governs economic valuation physical scientists have long proposed alternative but testable energy cost theories of economic valuation and have shown the gross correlation between energy consumption and economic output at the national level through input output energy analysis however due to the difficulty of precise energy analysis and highly complicated real markets no decisive evidence directly linking energy costs to the selling prices of individual commodities has yet been found over the past century the us metal market has accumulated a huge body of price data which for the first time ever provides us the opportunity to quantitatively examine the direct energy value correlation here by analyzing the market price data of 65 purified chemical elements mainly metals relative to the total energy consumption for refining them from naturally occurring geochemical conditions we found a clear correlation between the energy cost and their market prices the underlying physics we proposed has compatibility with conventional economic concepts such as the ratio between supply and demand or scarcity s role in economic valuation it demonstrates how energy cost serves as the invisible hand governing economic valuation thorough understanding of this energy connection between the human economic and the earth s biogeochemical metabolism is essential for improving the overall energy efficiency and furthermore the sustainability of the human society

the effects of imf and world bank lending on long run economic growth an empirical analysis summary the international monetary fund and the world bank frequently and often repeatedly extend loans to developing nations these loans have been blamed for generating adverse economic outcomes the growth impact of fund and bank loan programs is assessed using an empirical growth model that controls for other determinants of growth a unique feature of this study is the use of the value of loans rather than the number of programs the estimates indicate that bank lending stimulates growth in some cases primarily by increasing public investment fund lending is either neutral or detrimental to growth the channel for this effect is a negative impact of fund lending on public as well as private investment

ldc creditworthiness and foreign capital inflows 1980 86 abstract this paper estimates the determinants of foreign capital inflows and shows that they are jointly determined with ldc creditworthiness the paper demonstrates that foreign capital inflows respond to government restrictions and the cost of foreign transactions previous research based on single equation models has concluded that the amount of capital inflows is a positive indicator of ldc creditworthiness by contrast this paper estimates a simultaneous limited dependent variable model in order to capture the endogeneity of capital inflows the estimate yields a reversal in sign for the coefficient of the capital inflows variable the paper suggests that defensive lending may explain this finding

the hotelling rule for entropy constrained economic growth abstract lozada gabriel a 1995 xxx ecological economics the entropy change of the solar system between now and its final heat death is fixed the time to the heat death is determined by the rate of entropy increase between now and then if this rate of entropy increase is itself increased by economic activity then economic activity is generating a negative externality by internalizing this a social planner treats the fixed amount of entropy change remaining until the heat death like the stock of an exhaustible resource this leads to an analysis along the same lines as hotelling s neoclassical economics of exhaustible resources forming a partial synthesis between neoclassical economics and nicholas georgescu roegen s ecological economics work on the entropy law

immigrants and human capital investment why do immigrants invest more in human capital than the native born and how do investment patterns vary by type of immigrant summarizing our previous research we approach this question theoretically and empirically excerpt

aid policies and growth the authors of this paper use a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid economic policies and growth of per capita gdp in panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and 6 four year periods 1970 93 they find that the policies that have a great effect on growth are those related to fiscal surplus inflation and trade openness they construct an index for those three policies and have that index interact with foreign aid they have instruments for both aid and aid interacting with policies they find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal monetary and trade policies in the presence of poor policies aid has no positive effect on growth this result is robust in a variety of specifications which include or exclude middle income countries include or exclude outliers and treat policies as exogenous or endogenous they examine the determinants of policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected policies either for good or for ill they estimate an aid allocation equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donors pursuit of their own strategic interests in a counterfactual they reallocate aid reduce the role of donor interests and increasing the importance of policy such a reallocation would have a large positive effect on developing countries growth rates

environmental constraints and sigmoid utility implications for value risk sensitivity and social status abstract friedman and savage journal of political economy 4 1948 279 proposed sigmoid utility theory to model the relationship between social class and risk sensitivity their proposal has not been explicitly modeled to allow for full testing of the concept we argue that sigmoid utility arises naturally from boundary conditions imposed by finite environmental resources that engender competition we also present a sigmoid formulation and examine its empirical warrant by considering economic data from anthropological historical and sociological cases studies standard risk sensitivity measures such as arrow pratt and downside risk aversion provide expectations for which individuals are most risk prone insights from prospect theory indicate under what conditions sigmoid utility may be most useful we consider the implications of environmental constraint in the context of the sigmoid model as an explanation for the nature of political turmoil during the collapse of maya civilization ca ad 850 we consider the role lack of constraint played in the american revolution and we explore how sigmoid utility can enrich our understanding of contemporary american voting behavior

the new wave of private capital inflows push or pull abstract this paper studies the determinants and sustainability of the widespread private capital inflows to middle income countries after 1989 the key question is whether these flows are mostly pulled by attractive domestic conditions or pushed by unfavorable conditions in developed countries an analytical model focusing on country risk is developed and used empirically it is argued that the observed improvement in country creditworthiness is mostly due to the decline in international interest rates and that therefore its importance as a proximate cause does not support the pull interpretation all things considered in most countries the key answer that emerges is push

self selection and the earnings of immigrants this paper analyzes the way in which the earnings of the immigrant population may be expected to differ from the earnings of the native population because of the endogeneity of the decision to migrate the empirical study shows that differences in the u s earnings of immigrants with the same measured skills but from different home countries are attributable to variations in political and economic conditions in the countries of origin at the time of migration excerpt

imf lending programs participation and impact abstract participation in imf programs has been an option that more and more developing countries have exercised in recent years in this paper a detailed analysis of such participation over the period 1976 1986 provides a number of insights into the motivations for and the macroeconomic effects of such participation participation is driven by a combination of past performance present external influences and sluggish adjustment of developing countries the ability to predict which countries will participate in the imf program is quite good with nearly 90 percent of variation in such choices accounted for by the explanatory variables employed increased participation has as contemporaneous effects a reduction in economic growth and domestic investment and an improvement in the current account lagged effects of increased participation on economic growth and domestic investment are positive and in most estimates quantitatively greater than the contemporaneous effects there is also evidence of significantly lower public investment an increased budget surplus and real depreciation of the exchange rate with increased participation results for domestic credit creation and government current expenditure although they have a sign consistent with more austere policy cannot be shown to be significantly different from those not participating

the catalytic effect of lending by the international financial institutions for many less developed countries ldcs and countries in transition cits external financing is frequently an effective constraint on economic growth and development capital inflows may be used to overcome shortages of domestic saving thereby permitting higher levels of investment as well as shortages of foreign exchange thereby permitting larger quantities of imports

self organization and sustainability energetics of evolution and implications for ecological economics abstract in the 1920s alfred lotka suggested that evolution results both in an increasing total energy flow through the biosphere and in increasing energy efficiency of biological processes later authors attempted to generalize lotka s conjectures and to transform them into general evolutionary laws these laws are derived from the laws of thermodynamics and it is frequently argued that they also apply to the development of economic systems in the present paper an alternative interpretation of the lotka principles is suggested which starts from the self organization of dissipative structures self organization concepts from ecological and evolutionary economics are integrated on this basis energetic regularities in evolutionary processes are interpreted as emergent properties of competitive self organization given the close relationship between energy dissipation in economic processes and various environmental problems thermodynamic effects of economic evolution are of practical policy relevance the evolutionary perspective taken here implies that policy measures toward sustainable development will primarily have to affect the kinds of innovative behavior triggered in competitive processes

you can t take it with you immigrant assimilation and the portability of human capital the national origin of an individual s human capital is a crucial determinant of its value education and labor market experience acquired abroad are significantly less valued than human capital obtained domestically this difference can fully explain the earnings disadvantage of immigrants relative to comparable natives in israel variation in the return to foreign schooling across origin countries may reflect differences in its quality and compatibility with the host labor market the return to foreign experience is generally insignificant acquiring additional education following immigration appears to confer a compound benefit by raising the return to education acquired abroad

women in transition changes in gender wage differentials in eastern europe and the former soviet union under state socialism women fared relatively well in the labor market female male wage differentials were similar to those in the west and female labor force participation rates were among the h

immigration from the former soviet union to israel who is coming when abstract average education of new immigrants from the former soviet union in israel declined during the 1990s we suggest that this is because the returns to investment in israeli human capital increase in the amount of imported human capital thus the more educated invest more and therefore have an incentive to spend a longer share of their working life in israel this translates into early migration using data from the 1995 israeli census and the 1995 1998 samples of the israeli labor force survey we test our hypothesis and find that being high skilled initiates early migration only for migrants participating in the labor market

measuring and decomposing sustainable efficiency in agricultural production a cumulative exergy balance approach environmental efficiency measures constructed using the materials balance principle have two important shortcomings 1 the ambiguity in the treatment of immaterial inputs and the various types of energy and 2 the lack of universally accepted weights for various material inputs these two limitations are primarily caused by the fact that the materials balance condition is strictly regulated by the law of mass energy conservation and that mass energy content cannot be a good physical common unit of various inputs the use of cumulative exergy content overcomes these problems the use of cumulative exergy content allows the inclusion of life cycle assessment hence facilitates the analysis of the cumulative pollution and total affects on natural resources the present study uses cumulative exergy content to construct new efficiency sustainable measures and decomposes them into technical efficiency and cumulative exergy allocative efficiency in agricultural production empirical applications on oecd agriculture yielded a number of important findings 1 oecd has the potential to save 72 3 of cumulative exergy consumption and improvements can be achieved by being more technically efficient and choosing a better combination of inputs 2 the sustainable efficiency varied enormously across countries and 3 the efficiency levels in 2003 was lower than in 1990 copyright 2010 elsevier b v all rights reserved

portfolio capital flows hot or cold a distinction is often made between short term and long term capital flows the former are deemed unstable hot money and the latter are deemed stable cold money using time series analysis of balance of payments data for five industrial and five developing countries we find that in most cases the labels short term and long term do not provide any information about the time series properties of the flow in particular long term flows are often as volatile as short term flows and the time it takes for an unexpected shock to a flow to die out is similar across flows long term flows are also at least as unpredictable as short term flows and knowledge of the type of flow does not improve the ability to forecast the aggregate capital account copyright 1995 by oxford university press

aid policies and growth comment in an extraordinarily influential paper craig burnside and david dollar 2000 p 847 find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal monetary and trade policies but has little effect in the presence of poor policies this finding has enormous policy implications the burnside and dollar 2000 henceforth bd result provides a role and strategy for foreign aid if aid stimulates growth only in countries with good policies this suggests that 1 aid can promote economic growth and 2 it is crucial that foreign aid be distributed selectively to countries that have adopted sound policies international aid agencies public policy makers and the press quickly recognized the importance of the bd findings this paper reassesses the links between aid policy and growth using more data the bd data end in 1993 we reconstruct the bd database from original sources and thus 1 add additional countries and observations to the bd data set because new information has become available since they conducted their analyses and 2 extend the data through 1997 thus using the bd methodology we reexamine whether aid influences growth in the presence of good policies given our focus on retesting bd we do not summarize the vast pre bd literature on aid and growth we just note that there was a long and inconclusive literature that was hampered by limited data availability debates about the mechanisms through which aid would affect growth and disagreements over econometric specification see gustav f papanek 1972 robert cassen 1986 paul mosley et al 1987 peter boone 1994 1996 and henrik hansen and finn tarp s 2000 review since bd found that aid boosts growth in good policy environments there have been a number of other papers reacting to their results including paul collier and jan dehn 2001 carljohan dalgaard and hansen 2001 patrick guillaumont and lisa chauvet 2001 hansen and tarp 2001 robert lensink and howard white 2001 and collier and dollar 2002 these papers conduct useful variations and extensions some of which had already figured in the pre bd literature such as introducing additional control variables using nonlinear specifications etc some of these papers confirm the message that aid only works in a good policy environment while others drive out the aid policy interaction term with other variables this literature has the usual limitations of choosing a specification without clear guidance from theory which often means there are more plausible specifications than there are data points in the sample we differentiate our paper from these others by not deviating from the bd specification thus we do not test the robustness of the results to an unlimited number of variations but instead maintain the bd methodology this paper conducts a very simple robustness check by adding new data that were unavailable to bd thus we expand the sample used over their time period and extend the data from 1993 to 1997 easterly department of economics new york university 269 mercer street new york ny 10003 center for global development and national bureau of economic research e mail william easterly nyu edu levine department of finance carlson school of management university of minnesota 321 19th avenue south minneapolis mn 55455 and national bureau of economic research e mail rlevine csom umn edu roodman center for global development 1776 massachusetts avenue nw washington dc 20036 e mail droodman cgdev org we are grateful to craig burnside for supplying data and assisting in the reconstruction of previous results without holding him responsible in any way for the work in this paper thanks also to francis ng and prarthna dayal for generous assistance with updating the sachs warner openness variable and to three anonymous referees craig burnside and henrik hansen for helpful comments 1 see for instance the world bank 1994 2001 2002 the u k department for international development 2000 president george w bush s speech march 16 2002 the announcement by the white house on creating the millennium challenge corporation white house 2002 as well as a washington post editorial february 9 2002 a financial times column by alan beattie march 11 2002 and the economist march 16 2002

the contemporary european copper cycle statistical entropy analysis abstract the copper flows and stocks of the european economy are investigated and evaluated over a 1 year period in the early 1990s the method applied is statistical entropy which quantifies the distribution pattern of a substance e g copper caused by a system e g political economy contemporary copper management can be defined as a simple chain of four processes production of refined copper from ore manufacture and fabrication of products and goods consumption utilization and storage infrastructure of goods and separation of copper from waste for recycling and finally landfilling waste management relevant recycling streams new and old scrap within or between production manufacture and waste management processes also characterize the system throughout the life cycle of copper the statistical entropy varies considerably among the above mentioned processes and covers about 50 of the possible range between total dissipation and maximal concentration of the total throughput of copper nevertheless present copper management does not show a clear entropy trend across its life cycle the system as a whole neither dissipates nor concentrates copper significantly with regard to the original ore even a more optimized waste management system with higher recycling efficiency could not significantly change this finding since today s copper flows into waste management are small compared to the consumption of copper the relatively limited impact on the entropy trend of contemporary waste management may increase in the future because the infrastructure which has been established over the last few decades will be continuously renewed and replaced as a result of these larger waste streams decreasing overall entropy trends will be realizable provided efficient recycling technologies are applied this indicates the possibility for long term feasible perhaps sustainable copper management the entropy approach improves our understanding of industrial metabolism and is a useful decision support and design tool since complex systems can thereby be quantified by a single metric per substance

natural capital and sustainability abstract this paper develops and rigorously analyses a model describing the optimal use of natural capital in a utilitarian framework natural capital is treated as an aggregate including exhaustibles renewables and environmentals performing several functions it is found that it converges to a steady state in which it is kept constant by simultaneous investments and use

structured pluralism in ecological economics a reply to peter soderbaum s commentary abstract peter soderbaum argues in his commentary concerning my article on sustainability economics remig 2015 for more open and radical ecological economics i agree with that statement however i reject soderbaum s interpretation that my arguments foster mainstreamed ecological economics or dictatorship in my critique of sustainability economics i raised several issues that have remained unspecified and that potentially lead to unsustainable development patterns once put into practice soderbaum does not reply to these conceptual challenges of sustainability economics in this commentary i argue that structured pluralism dow 2004 is a constituent element of ecological economics i welcome peter soderbaum s proposal for a discussion about the definition of economics and suggest to rely on ronald coase s proposal to define economics as a science that studies the working of the economic system i conclude that sustainability economics in its current form is closer to neoclassical than ecological economics

the imf forever an analysis of the prolonged use of fund resources considerable concern has been expressed about the prolonged use made of international monetary fund imf resources by a number of member countries some commentators have seen this as being fundamentally at odds with the role of the imf as a source of temporary balance of payments support and as one aspect of mission creep by the fund the perceived importance of the issue is reflected by the fact that the first report of the fund s independent evaluation office focused on it this article provides a detailed analysis of the prolonged use of fund resources it assesses the extent to which it is a problem and draws on available empirical evidence both qualitative and quantitative to isolate the causes of prolonged use it concludes by examining the policy questions to which prolonged use gives rise

economic de growth vs steady state economy in recent years the concept of economic de growth decroissance based on the literature of nicolas georgescu roegen e g 1 3 has found a revival in france italy spain and other countries in the popular as well as in the academic literature therein authors took on board georgescu roegens categorical rejection of a steady state economy sse as proposed by herman daly 4 they argue that economic degrowth is the only viable alternative goal to the growing economy this position is challenged in this article and it is concluded that the two concepts are in fact complements economic de growth is not a goal in itself but the rich north s path towards a globally equitable sse moreover the de growth literature can benefit from the strong economic historic roots of the sse and from daly s macroeconomic concepts while in return being able to give lessons about bottom up approaches this would be particularly important for the population issue where daly proposes limited birth licences unfortunately statements on demography are inconsistent and underdeveloped in the de growth literature further it is concluded that most criticisms of the sse are due to a too narrow and technocratic interpretation of the concept instead the sse should be defined as a quasi steady state resting in a dynamic equilibrium and as an unattainable goal which can and probably should be approximated

aid and growth regressions this paper examines the relationship between foreign aid and growth in real gdp per capita as it emerges from simple augmentations of popular cross country growth specifications it is shown that aid in all likelihood increases the growth rate and this result is not conditional on good policy there are however decreasing returns to aid and the estimated effectiveness of aid is highly sensitive to the choice of estimator and the set of control variables when investment and human capital are controlled for no positive effect of aid is found yet aid continues to impact on growth via investment we conclude by stressing the need for more theoretical work before this kind of cross country regressions are used for policy purposes

sustainability analysis of a society based on exergy studies a case study of the island of samso denmark abstract the danish island samso has since 1997 initiated a process through which the island should reach a state where it would be able to supply its own energy such a situation was reached since 2005 after having established 21 windmills and the island is now a net exporter of electricity to the danish power network at the same time the buildings in the more habituated areas were connected to 4 district heating plants which generate heat from combustion of straw in some cases combined with supplementary inputs from photo thermal devices meanwhile certain activities on the island such as running the ferries cars factories and heating in more distant areas are still dependent on significant input of fossil fuels the inhabitants have recently stated a wish to move on towards being independent of fossil fuels in 2030 and carbon neutral during the next decades as a consequence the idea came up to develop a method for the sustainability analysis of a society which would assist in governing the transitional process in the direction of increasing sustainability therefore a framework has been developed based on the concept exergy that may reveal where large consumptions are taking places such areas are likely to be sensible targets for action or at least increased attention basic methods have been developed that allows to account for infrastructure transfers inputs and outputs and consumption in terms of exergy and taking into account whether the exergy storages or flows can be considered to be renewable or not the framework has been developed for six societal sectors the energy sector the public sector the private households the agricultural sector the industry commerce and trade sector and nature nature is here considered an activity that provides the society with an exergy that may also be of value to our societies often referred to as ecosystem services based on the estimated amount of infrastructure and transfers inputs and outputs a number of sustainability indicators have been developed that may be monitored over time and which may serve to indicate whether potential measures undertaken also lead the society in the right direction an attempt to evaluate the potential importance of wastes has also been carried out as in organic waste could play an important role in acquiring the amount of bio diesel required to run the ferries in the future the results demonstrate that the already existing overhead in production of electricity leaves the island with many options and a great opportunity to be independent of fossil fuels in near future in fact it might well be that socio economical perspectives will turn out to be the more severe obstacles in the transition process adjacent to this work a carbon model has also been set up to reveal the consequence of proposed measures and strategies to the carbon budget of the island jorgensen and nielsen 2014