utility covariances and context effects in conjoint mnp models experimental conjoint choice analysis is among the most frequently used methods for measuring and analyzing consumer preferences the data from such experiments have been typically analyzed with the multinomial logit mnl model however there are several problems associated with the standard mnl model because it is based on the assumption that the error terms of the underlying random utilities are independent across alternatives choice sets and subjects the multinomial probit model mnp is well known to alleviate this assumption of independence of the error terms accounting for covariances in utilities in modeling choice experiments with the mnp is important because variation of the coefficients in the choice model may occur due to context effects previous research has shown that subjects utilities for alternatives depend on the choice context that is the particular set of alternatives evaluated simonson and tversky s tradeoff contrast principle describes the effect of the choice context on attribute importance and patterns of choice they distinguish local contrast effects which are caused by the alternatives in the offered set only and background contrast effects which are due to the influence of alternatives previously considered in choice experiments these effects are hypothesized to cause correlations in the utilities of alternatives within and across choice sets respectively the purpose of this study is to develop an mnp model for conjoint choice experiments this model is important for a more detailed study of choice patterns in those experiments in developing the mnp model for conjoint choice experiments several hurdles need to be taken related to the identification of the model and to the prediction of holdout profiles to overcome those problems we propose a random coefficients rc model that assumes a multivariate normal distribution of the regression coefficients with a rank one factor structure on the covariance matrix of these regression coefficients the parameters in this covariance matrix can be used to identify which attributes and levels of attributes are potentional sources of dependencies between the alternatives and choice sets in a conjoint choice experiment we present several versions of this model moreover for each of these models we allow utilities to be either correlated or independent across choice sets the independent probit ip model is used as a benchmark given the dimensionality of the integrations involved in computing the choice probabilities the models are estimated with simulated likelihood where simulations are used to approximate the integrals involved in the choice probabilities we apply and compare the models in two conjoint choice experiments in both applications the random coefficients mnp model that allows choices in different choice sets to be correlated rc displays superior fit and predictive validity compared with all other models we hypothesize that the difference in fit occurs because the rc model accommodates correlations among choice sets that are caused by background contrast effects whereas the model that treats choice sets as independent irc accounts for local contrast effects only the irc model shows superior model fit compared with the ip model but its predictions are worse than those of the ip model we find differences in the importance of local and background contrast effects for choice sets containing different numbers of alternatives the background contrast effect may be stronger for smaller choice sets whereas the local contrast effect may be stronger for bigger choice sets we illustrate the differences in simulated market shares that are obtained from the rc irc and ip models in three hypothetical situations product modification product line extension and the introduction of a me too brand in all of those situations substantially different market shares are predicted by the three models which illustrates the extent to which erroneous predictions may be obtained from the misspecified irc and ip models

monetary union price level convergence and inflation how close is europe to the usa abstract the pattern of price dispersion across european and us cities from 1990 to 2004 is documented there is a striking decline in dispersion for traded goods prices in europe most of which took place prior to the launch of the euro dispersion in the euro area is now quite close to that of the usa this evidence provides useful facts for future work assessing the importance of various developments in europe harmonization of tax rates convergence of incomes and labor costs liberalization of trade and factor markets and increased coherence of monetary policy

using extremeness aversion to fight obesity policy implications of context dependent demand this article illustrates how the compromise effect alters consumers selection of soft drinks using three within subject studies we show that extremeness aversion and price insensitivity cause consumers to increase their consumption when the smallest drink size is dropped or when a larger drink size is added to a set as a result rational firms find it best to drop the smaller sizes and add a larger size thus increasing overall consumption after estimating each individual s demand as a function of price and drink size availability policy experiments demonstrate how it is possible to reduce soft drink consumption without additional taxation

from inherent value to incentive value when and why pointless effort enhances consumer preference companies typically use clear fonts and bright pictures in their ads web sites and product package designs place their products on easy to reach shelves and emphasize ease of usage to make their products appear desirable to consumers however we suggest that customers focused on incentive value getting the best product may instead see products associated with noninstrumental pointless effort as more desirable we suggest that because effort is usually required to get the best outcomes people looking for the best outcomes also mistakenly presume effort must imply the best possible outcome across five studies we show that highlighting incentive value for instance by message framing or by measuring chronic focus or by manipulating situational focus on incentive value enhances preference toward outcomes associated with noninstrumental effort we discuss the importance of our findings for understanding everyday consumption decisions and argue for a widespread tendency among individuals wanting the best to infer value from noninstrumental effort

stimulus context and the formation of consumer ideals when a choice set consists of a distribution of alternatives with correlated benefits and costs consumers often exhibit single peaked preferences they prefer an alternative having moderate costs and benefits theories disagree about how adding additional lower benefit lower cost or higher benefit higher cost alternatives to this choice set will affect relative preferences for the initial set of alternatives prototype theory predicts that adding alternatives should produce assimilation whereas multiattribute range frequency theory predicts that it creates contrast we reconcile these two theories by assuming that single peaked preferences reflect a composition of underlying benefit and cost valuations moreover we claim that the correlational structure of the benefit and cost dimensions in the contextual stimuli determines whether these stimuli will exert an assimilation or contrast effect we show that when benefits and costs are correlated uncorrelated adding alternatives that extend the range of offerings produces assimilation contrast for preference judgments we propose a cost benefit trade off model that incorporates elements of single peaked preference theory and range frequency theory to explain the complex fashion in which contextual stimuli affect consumer ideals

quantity discount dependent consumer preferences and competitive nonlinear pricing abstract producers of consumer packaged goods often offer several package sizes of the same product and charge a lower unit price for a larger size in this article the authors investigate the quantity discount effect or the phenomenon that consumers derive transaction utility from the unit price difference between a small and a large package size of the same product the authors propose a modeling framework composed of a demand side model and a supply side model the empirical results suggest that quantity discount induced gains or losses have a significant impact on consumer buying behavior the authors also find a substantial amount of structural heterogeneity that is some consumers perceive quantity discounts as gains whereas others perceive quantity discounts as losses conversely the supply side analysis suggests that manufacturers in the empirical application do not consider quantity discount effects when setting prices through a series of policy experiments the authors show that by accou

overchoice and assortment type when and why variety backfires almost universally research and practice suggest that a brand that increases its product assortment or variety should benefit through increased market share in this paper we show this is not always the case we introduce the construct assortment type and demonstrate that the effect of assortment size on brand share is systematically moderated by assortment type we define an alignable assortment as a set of brand variants that differ along a single compensatory dimension such that choosing from that assortment only requires within attribute trade offs in contrast we define a nonalignable assortment as a set of brand variants that simultaneously vary along multiple noncompensatory dimensions demanding between attribute trade offs in turn we argue that an alignable assortment can efficiently meet the diverse tastes of consumers thereby increasing brand share but that a nonalignable assortment increases both the cognitive effort and the potential for regret faced by a consumer thereby decreasing brand share we term this effect overchoice across three studies we provide evidence of overchoice and tie the effect to the effort and regret brought about by nonalignability in the process we demonstrate that simplification of information presentation reversibility of choice and a reduction in underlying nonalignability serve to reduce or eliminate this effect

what goes around comes around effects of offshore outsourcing on the export performance of firms we examine the effect of offshore outsourcing on the export performance of firms building on the theories of international business the resource based view and transaction cost economics we argue that offshore outsourcing helps firms directly or indirectly to export more it may reduce their production costs and enhance their flexibility it may also provide them with new resources and market knowledge however the impact of offshore outsourcing depends on the resources and capabilities of firms to manage a network of foreign suppliers and to absorb foreign knowledge using a database of around 2000 manufacturing mnes in france in 1999 we find that offshore outsourcing increases export performance the effects being stronger in the export markets where firms import intermediate goods we also show that the firm size the organization of intra firm imports and the export experience moderate the effects of offshore outsourcing positively these findings have implications for firms and policymakers journal of international business studies 2011 42 334 344 doi 10 1057 jibs 2010 26

could ralph nader s entrance and exit have helped al gore the impact of decoy dynamics on consumer choice abstract people are frequently faced with making a new choice decision after a preferred option becomes unavailable prior research on the attraction effect has demonstrated how the introduction of an option into a choice set increases the share of one of the original options the authors examine the related but previously unaddressed issue of whether the unexpected exit of an option from a choice set returns the choice shares of the original options to the status quo in a series of experiments they observe that when an option turns out to be unselectable following a choice problem in which it was selectable the choice shares of the remaining options are predictably different from those of a choice problem in which the option was unselectable from the start they also observe that this attraction effect due to the disappearance of a decoy is likely a consequence of changes in the importance of decision criteria they conclude with a discussion of the theoretical and managerial implications of the research

the decoy effect in relative performance evaluation and the debiasing role of dea abstract there is overwhelming evidence that performance ratings and evaluations are context dependent a special case of such context effects is the decoy effect which implies that the inclusion of a dominated alternative can influence the preference for non dominated alternatives adapting the well known experimental setting from the area of consumer behavior to the performance evaluation context of data envelopment analysis dea an experiment was conducted the results show that adding a dominated decision making unit dmu to the set of dmus augments the attractiveness of certain dominating dmus and that dea efficiency scores discriminating between efficient and inefficient dmus serve as an appropriate debiasing procedure the mention of the existence of slacks for distinguishing between strong and weak efficient dmus also contributes to reducing the decoy effect but it is also associated to other unexpected effects

constructive consumer choice processes consumer decision making has been a focal interest in consumer research and consideration of current marketplace trends e g technological change an information explosion indicates that this topic will continue to be critically important we argue that consumer choice is inherently constructive due to limited processing capacity consumers often do not have well defined existing preferences but construct them using a variety of strategies contingent on task demands after describing constructive choice consumer decision tasks and decision strategies we provide an integrative framework for understanding constructive choice review evidence for constructive consumer choice in light of that framework and identify knowledge gaps that suggest opportunities for additional research

market boundaries and product choice illustrating attraction and substitution effects what happens to the share of choices each item receives when the choice set boundaries are extended by adding a new item that is extremely good on one dimension but poor on the others first there is a substitution effect whereby the new item takes choice share mainly from similar items in the set second there is an attraction effect resulting in a general shift of preference toward the added item experimental studies show that choice patterns conflict with current theoretical and common sense ideas about the effect of added alternatives on choice

the effect of local consideration sets on global choice between lower price and higher quality a set of alternatives under consideration is often divided into subsets or local sets by some external e g product display format at the store or internal e g a decision rule factor we propose that the manner in which a global set of alternatives varying in price and quality is divided into local sets can have a systematic effect on consumer choice between a lower price alternative and a higher quality alternative three such effects are investigated 1 consumers who first choose from pairs of products a b b c a c and then choose from the set of all three products a b c are more likely to prefer the cheapest alternative than consumers who only choose from the complete set 2 the choice share of a low price low quality brand is greater when alternatives varying in price quality and features are displayed by brand i e each display presents different models of one brand as compared to a display by feature level i e each display presents comparable models of different brands and 3 consumers considering a pair of two option local sets each consisting of different brands and feature levels e g a feature enhanced model of a low quality brand vs a basic model of a high quality brand are more likely to select a feature enhanced model from the global set of four options than those who consider the same alternatives in other local set configurations or consider only the global set these predictions were supported in seven studies which also provided insights into the boundaries of the effects focusing on the paired comparison effect we discuss the theoretical and practical implications of the findings

the time vs money effect shifting product attitudes and decisions through personal connection the results of five field and laboratory experiments reveal a time versus money effect whereby activating time vs money leads to a favorable shift in product attitudes and decisions because time increases focus on product experience activating time vs money augments one s personal connection with the product thereby boosting attitudes and decisions however because money increases the focus on product possession the reverse effect can occur in cases where merely owning the product reflects the self i e for prestige possessions or for highly materialistic consumers the time versus money effect proves robust across implicit and explicit methods of construct activation

the attraction effect and its explanations abstract the attraction effect violates choice consistency one of the central assumptions of economics i present a risky choice experiment to test it and disentangle some of its explanations i find the attraction effect but in a smaller magnitude than previously thought i uncover a range effect that shows that people weight more attributes whose range increases i also show that the aggregate results hide considerable heterogeneity between subjects

adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis an asymmetrically dominated alternative is dominated by one item in the set but not by another adding such an alternative to a choice set can increase the probability of choosing the item that dominates it this result points to the inadequacy of many current choice models and suggests product line strategies that might not otherwise be intuitively plausible

new products the antidote to private label growth abstract as private labels pls continue to grow in power and market share product innovation has become one of the strongest weapons in the national brand nb manufacturer s arsenal in this article the author assesses when and to what extent new products change nbs market position to address this question more than 300 nb and pl introductions are analyzed using a multibreak model that quantifies the impact of product introductions on own share rival nb and pl share and category sales drawing on empirical generalizations the author finds that products introduced by leading nbs standard pls and premium pls are more likely to increase category sales than products introduced by follower nbs or economy pls new products introduced by leader and follower nbs more often boost own share thus new products help prevent the decline of nb shares with respect to competitive impact new products affect rival shares with the exception of those launched by economy pls still nbs tend to hurt rival nbs

the influence of serotonin deficiency on choice deferral and the compromise effect abstractpsychological and physiological states such as mood hunger stress and sleep deprivation are known to affect decision making processes and therefore crucially influence consumer behavior a possible biological mechanism underlying the observed variability of consumer behavior is the context sensitive variation in the levels of neuromodulators in the brain in a series of four experimental studies the authors pharmaceutically reduce the levels of the neurotransmitter serotonin in the brain to diminish the availability of subjects cognitive resources in doing so they study how serotonin brain levels influence 1 subjects tendency to avoid buying and 2 consumers preference for product options positioned as a compromise in a given choice set rather than for more extreme alternatives i e the compromise effect using realistic product choice scenarios in a binding decision framework they find that a reduction of brain serotonin levels leads to choice deferral and decreases the compromise

the role of explanations and need for uniqueness in consumer decision making unconventional choices based on reasons this research investigates the interaction between a very common task explaining decisions and an individual difference need for uniqueness nfu on buyer decision making we propose that explaining or providing reasons for decisions shifts the focus from the choice of options to the choice of reasons furthermore buyers who explain their decisions and have high nfu tend to select unconventional reasons and are consequently more likely to make unconventional choices these predictions were supported in a series of studies involving choices between conventional and less conventional options such as whether to switch to a brand on sale whether to select a compromise option and whether to accept a gamble with a possible loss the findings also indicate that the effects of providing reasons are not due to attempts to act rationally or to concerns about being evaluated three boundary conditions on the generalization that high nfu consumers who provide reasons tend to make unconventional choices we

experimental auction procedure impact on valuation of quality differentiated goods despite increased use of experimental auctions a myriad of different procedures are being employed without formal consideration of how the procedures might affect results this study investigates the effect of several procedural issues on valuation estimates from experimental auctions results indicate the second price auction generates higher valuations than english becker degroot marschak bdm and random nth price auctions especially in latter bidding rounds and that random nth price auction yields lower valuations than english and bdm auctions we find that endowing subjects with a good prior to eliciting bids can have an impact on valuations but the effect varies across auction mechanism

me myself and my choices the influence of private self awareness on choice abstract this article examines the impact of private self awareness on consumer decision making in four studies the authors show that the ease of preference formation accompanying private self awareness makes people more willing and able to rely on their personal preference weights as the authors predict privately self aware consumers are less inclined to opt for a varied choice set study 1 and are less likely to select compromise options studies 2 and 3 unless they find that it is too difficult to construct their personal preferences study 4

goal based construction of preferences task goals and the prominence effect preferences inferred from choice are more likely to favor the alternative that is superior with respect to the prominent most important or salient attribute than are preferences inferred from matching direct tradeoff judgments this prominence effect violates standard models of rational choice and complicates the task of measuring preferences in this article we propose a new task goal hypothesis regarding the prominence effect the prominent attribute receives more weight in tasks whose goal is to differentiate among options than in tasks whose goal is to equate options we use this hypothesis to generalize the prominence effect beyond choice and matching to several additional tasks including the choice based matching and difference comparison methods that are widely employed in decision analysis the results of three studies provide strong support for the task goal account of the prominence effect and cast doubt on competing explanations we discuss the implications of these findings for descriptive decision theory and for preference measurement in decision analysis public policy and marketing

paying attention or paying too much in medicare part d we study whether people became less likely to switch medicare prescription drug plans pdps due to more options and more time in part d panel data for a random 20 percent sample of enrollees from 2006 2010 show that 50 percent were not in their original pdps by 2010 individuals switched pdps in response to higher costs of their status quo plans saving them money contrary to choice overload larger choice sets increased switching unless the additional plans were relatively expensive neither switching overall nor responsiveness to costs declined over time and above minimum spending in 2010 remained below the 2006 and 2007 levels

modeling the psychology of consumer and firm behavior with behavioral economics abstract marketing is an applied science that tries to explain and influence how firms and consumers behave in markets marketing models are usually applications of standard economic theories which rely on strong assumptions of rationality of consumers and firms behavioral economics explores the implications of the limits of rationality with the goal of making economic theories more plausible by explaining and predicting behavior more accurately while maintaining formal power this article reviews six behavioral economics models that are useful to marketing three models generalize standard preference structures to allow for sensitivity to reference points and loss aversion social preferences toward outcomes of others and preference for instant gratification the other three models generalize the concept of game theoretic equilibrium allowing decision makers to make mistakes encounter limits on the depth of strategic thinking and equilibrate by learning from feedback the authors also discuss a sp

context dependent voting and political ambiguity abstract in recent decades psychologists have shown that the standard model of individual choice is often violated one regularly observed violation is that choices are influenced by the decision context to incorporate these effects into politics we introduce a theory of context dependent voting and apply it to the puzzle of why candidates are so frequently ambiguous in their policy pronouncements we show that context dependent voters develop a taste for ambiguity even when they evaluate distances quadratically and exhibit traditional risk aversion turning to aggregate effects we incorporate context dependent voting into a model of electoral competition and show that strategic candidates respond in equilibrium to context dependent voters by offering ambiguous platforms thereby affecting the policy outcome

choice based on reasons the case of attraction and compromise effects building on previous research this article proposes that choice behavior under preference uncertainty may be easier to explain by assuming that consumers select the alternative supported by the best reasons this approach provides an explanation for the so called attraction effect and leads to the prediction of a compromise effect consistent with the hypotheses the results indicate that 1 brands tend to gain share when they become compromise alternatives in a choice set 2 attraction and compromise effects tend to be stronger among subjects who expect to justify their decisions to others and 3 selections of dominating and compromise brands are associated with more elaborate and difficult decisions

dyadic compromise effect existing research on the compromise effect has focused exclusively on the individual this paper investigates compromise effects in a setting that involves multiple individuals making a choice we study whether the dyadic compromise effect dce exists the association between dyadic and individual compromise effects and strategies to mitigate the dce we build a statistical model of dyadic choice that formally incorporates dce we conduct two studies to test our proposed models empirically in study 1 we begin with an investigation of the dce with student subjects in study 2 we test for the presence of dce among married couples when making retirement investment choices in both studies model free and model based evidence provides strong support for the presence of dce a model that incorporates dce provides a better fit than models that do not evidence in support of dce is shown to be robust to alternative compromise effect model specifications and utility aggregation methods we find that the indi

variety vice and virtue how assortment size influences option choice assortment size has been shown to influence whether consumers make a choice but could it also influence what they choose five studies demonstrate that because choosing from larger assortments is often more difficult it leads people to select options that are easier to justify virtues and utilitarian necessities are generally easier to justify than indulgences consequently choosing from larger assortments often shifts choice from vices to virtues and from hedonic to utilitarian options these effects reverse however when situational factors provide accessible reasons to indulge underscoring the role of justification implications for choice difficulty and justification processes are discussed

justification effects on consumer choice of hedonic and utilitarian goods abstract people want to have fun and they are more likely to have fun if the situation allows them to justify it this research studies how people s need for justifying hedonic consumption drives two choice patterns that are observed in typical purchase contexts first relative preferences between hedonic and utilitarian alternatives can reverse depending on how the immediate purchase situation presents itself a hedonic alternative tends to be rated more highly than a comparable utilitarian alternative when each is presented singly but the utilitarian alternative tends to be chosen over the hedonic alternative when the two are presented jointly second people have preferences for expending different combinations of time effort and money for acquiring hedonic versus utilitarian items they are willing to pay more in time for hedonic goods and more in money for utilitarian goods the author explores the topic through a combination of four experiments and field studies

a canonical model of choice with initial endowments we use the revealed preference method to derive a model of individual decision making when the endowment of an agent provides a reference point that may influence her choices this model generalizes the classical rational choice model which views choice as a consequence of utility maximization instead our model sees choice as arising from psychologically constrained utility maximization where the constraints are induced by one s initial endowment in particular this model produces status quo bias as a natural consequence but not necessarily the endowment effect a range of economic applications identify the predictive and explanatory strength of the model in particular we demonstrate that the status quo bias phenomenon reduces the size of the substitution effect in problems of consumption choice

a monetary measure of the strength and robustness of the attraction effect the attraction effect has been studied in conditions of indifference among options and measured at the aggregate level we introduce a new within subjects design based on induced preferences and psychometrics our method yields two individual level measures the traditional frequency measure and a new monetary indicator the monetary indicator measures the robustness of the effect to decreases in the relative utility of the target with respect to the competitor we find choice frequencies consistent with the literature our monetary measure shows that subjects still prefer the target up to the point where it is 8 more expensive than the competitor