is there private information in the fx market the tokyo experiment it is a common view that private information in the foreign exchange market does not exist we provide evidence against this view the evidence comes from the introduction of trading in tokyo over the lunch hour lunch re turn variance doubles with the introduction of trading which cannot be due to public information since the flow of public information did not change with the trading rules having eliminated public information as the cause we exploit the volatility pattern over the whole day to discriminate between the two alternatives private information and pricing errors three key re sults support the predictions of private information models first the vola tility u shape flattens greater revelation over lunch leaves a smaller share for the morning and afternoon second the u shape tilts upward an impli cation of information whose private value is transitory finally the morning exhibits a clear u shape when tokyo closes over lunch and it disappears when trading is introduced

market structure and the intraday pattern of bid ask spreads for nasdaq securities this article examines the intraday pattern of bid ask spreads among nasdaq stocks we find that spreads are relatively stable throughout the day but narrow significantly near the close this contrasts with the u shaped pattern for nyse stocks reported by brock and kleidon and mcinish and wood we attribute these divergent patterns to structural differences between specialist and dealer markets the wider spreads for nyse stocks near periods of market closure may reflect the market power of specialists the decline in spreads near the close for nasdaq stocks is consistent with inventory control by individual dealers copyright 1995 by university of chicago press

transaction costs order placement strategy and existence of the bid ask spread by considering investor order placement strategy this paper demonstrates that transaction costs cause bid ask spreads to be an equilibrium property of asset markets with transaction costs the probability of a limit order executing does not go to unity as the order is placed infinitesimally close to a counterpart market quote thus with certainty of execution at the counterpart market quote a gravitational pull is generated that keeps counterpart quotes from being placed infinitesimally close to each other an equilibrium spread is defined and its size linked to market thinness implications are noted for the design of a trading system

oligarchy democracy inequality and growth abstract this paper analyses the dynamics of inequality democratization and economic development in a political economy model of growth where education is both the engine of growth and a determinant of political participation in a context with imperfect capital markets we investigate the incentives for an educated oligarchy to subsidize the poor s education and to initiate a democratic transition we characterize the equilibrium patterns of political institutions income distribution and growth as a function of the initial income and inequalities in particular we identify circumstances under which the elite promotes the endogenous emergence of a middle class for purely political economy reasons a simple linear infinite horizon framework is then presented in this setting we discuss the importance of historical dependence for long run social stratification and redistribution

commodity liquidity measurement and transaction costs we examine the performance of liquidity proxies in commodities the amihud measure has the largest correlation with liquidity benchmarks amivest and effective tick measures also perform well these proxies are useful for studies of commodity liquidity over a long time period and those that lack access to high frequency data we use various aspects of transaction costs such as spread depth immediacy and resiliency to give insight into the costs of different execution approaches transaction costs increase with volatility and exhibit mean reversion splitting trades over one hour can reduce trading costs by two thirds compared to an immediate execution the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oup com oxford university press

earthquake fatalities the interaction of nature and political economy to say that the level of fatalities resulting from an earthquake is inversely related to a country s per capita level of income is hardly novel what makes our approach novel is that we relate fatalities to both per capita income and the level of inequality that exists within a country through their joint impact on the likelihood of collective action being taken to mitigate the destructive potential of quakes we first develop a theoretical model which offers an explanation as to why in some environments different segments of society prove incapable of arriving at what all parties perceive to be an agreeable distribution of the burden of the necessary collective action causing the relatively wealthy simply to self insure against the disaster while leaving the relatively poor to its mercy following this we test our theoretical model by evaluating 269 large earthquakes occurring worldwide between 1960 and 2002 taking into account other factors that influence a quake s destructiveness such as its magnitude depth and proximity to population centers using a negative binomial estimation strategy with both random and fixed estimators we find strong evidence of the theoretical model s predictions that is while earthquakes themselves are natural phenomena beyond the reach of humankind our collective inaction with respect to items like the creation and enforcement of building codes failure to retrofit structures and to enact quake sensitive zoning clearly plays a part in determining the actual toll that a given quake takes and it is through these and other examples of collective inaction that limited per capita income and inequality couple together with a given quake s natural destructive power in determining the actual fatalities resulting from a quake

when is a lower exchange rate pass through associated with greater exchange rate exposure abstract we study the relationship between exchange rate pass through how exchange rates affect import prices and exchange rate exposure how exchange rates affect profits under flexible prices we note that the convexity of costs is an important determinant of both pass through and exposure and that an increase in the convexity of costs typically reduces both pass through and exposure hence the correlation between pass through and exposure should be positive across industries if cost functions differ across industries this effect can be mitigated by the negative correlation between pass through and exposure induced by changes in the price elasticity of demand

exchange rates and cash flows in differentiated product industries a simulation approach how do exchange rate changes impact firms cash flows we extend a simulation method developed in industrial organization to answer this question we use prices quantities and product characteristics for differentiated products coupled with a discrete choice framework and an assumption of price competition to estimate marginal costs for all producers using a monte carlo approach we generate counterfactual prices and profits for different levels of exchange rates we illustrate the method using the market for bottled water our results stress that even in a relatively simple market such as this one different brands face very different exchange rate risks consider a firm that produces a good in france using mainly local inputs and sells it abroad in locations that have a floating exchange rate vis a vis the euro profits and in turn the value of the firm are potentially exposed to exchange rate changes if the euro appreciates profits when measured in euros are likely to decrease how large is the decrease in profits similarly what is the impact of such an exchange rate change on the profits of an import competing firm these are the questions that a large literature on exchange rate exposure attempts to answer

inequality redistribution and growth a challenge to the conventional political economy approach abstract this paper reconsiders the conventional political economy view that 1 1 more unequal societies tend to make more redistribution and 2 2 more redistribution is harmful to growth we present a number of theoretical arguments suggesting that the two previous implications are not necessarily true and that the empirically observed negative correlation between inequality and growth might just come from the fact that more unequal societies tend to redistribute less which in turn is actually detrimental to growth

spend it like beckham inequality and redistribution in the uk 1983 2004 a main activity of the state is to redistribute resources standard political economy models predict that a rise in inequality will lead to more redistribution this paper shows that for the uk in the period 1983 2004 a plausibly exogenous rise in income inequality has not been associated with increased redistribution we explore this example of the paradox of redistribution using attitudinal data we show that standard political economy models of the individual demand for redistribution do have explanatory power but that other attitudes and beliefs are also very important moreover these attitudes and beliefs change quite quickly so are very important in explaining variation in the demand for redistribution

international competition and exchange rate shocks a cross country industry analysis of stock returns this article systematically examines the importance of exchange rate movements and industry competition for stock returns common shocks to industries across countries are more important than competitive shocks due to changes in exchange rates weekly exchange rate shocks explain almost nothing of the relative performance of industries using returns measured over longer horizons the importance of exchange rate shocks increases slightly and the importance of industry common shocks increases more substantially both industry and exchange rate shocks are more important for industries that produce internationally traded goods but the importance of these shocks is economically small for these industries as well economists journalists and politicians around the world argue that some of the industries in their country compete vigorously with the same industries in other countries and that exchange rate shocks affect their competitiveness in the united states it is routinely stated that some u s industries compete with japanese industries and that a depreciation of the yen is bad for these u s industries and good for the rival japanese industries if the yen falls trade tensions could intensify between the u s and japan as autos and machinery from japan gain a competitive edge 1 further the exchange rate literature shows that exchange rate shocks lead to persistent deviations from purchasing power parity 2 froot and klemperer 1989 and knetter 1989 1993 among others demonstrate that deviations from purchasing power parity lead to sharp changes in price markups and profit margins for exporters

bribing votes a new explanation to the inequality redistribution puzzle in ldc s the recent empirical literature on redistribution and developmentemphasizes two main evidences i more redistribution generallyinduces higher growth rates and ii more inequality does notnecessarily increase the political demand for redistribution these stylized facts are at odds with the correlations observedin developed countries several theoretical arguments can beadvanced to explain these puzzles in this paper it is shownthat vote purchases may be seen as an additional argument toexplain puzzle ii we formalize this idea and examine theconditions under which vote bribes may be an obstacle toredistribution and thus to growth in a developing economy

measurement of monopoly behavior an application to the cigarette industry a simple scheme is proposed to measure monopoly pricing behavior the coefficient of the tax rate term in a price equation identifies the ratio of price to marginal cost no direct measurement of costs is required so a major problem for other empirical studies of monopoly is avoided empirical results for cross section time series data support rejection of atomistic competition but also provide evidence against the operation of an effective cartel in the cigarette industry the model represents an alternative interpretation of related results in a recent paper by barzel application of the methodology to other markets is feasible

investment and the exchange rate an analysis with firm level panel data abstract this paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and the investment decisions of a sample of italian manufacturing firms the results support the view that a depreciation of the exchange rate has a positive effect on investment through the revenue channel and a negative effect through the cost channel the magnitude of these effects varies over time with changes in the firm s external orientation as measured by the share of foreign sales over total sales and the reliance on imported inputs consistent with the predictions of our theoretical framework the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on investment is stronger for firms with low monopoly power facing a high degree of import penetration in the domestic market and of a small size we also provide evidence that the degree of substitutability between domestically produced and imported inputs influences the effect through the expenditure side

price discrimination by u s and german exporters the insensitivity of the u s trade balance to the sharp depreciation of the dollar in the past three years has revived interest in the relationship between exchange rates and the trade balance a central issue in most analyses of the relation between the current account and the exchange rate concerns the price adjustment process the simple integrated competitive market model predicts that local currency prices should change in proportion to the nominal exchange rate for a country too small to influence world prices the relationship between local currency import prices and exchange rates has been referred to as the pass through relationship in the empirical literature in international economics if the proportional relationship between import prices and exchange rates holds pass through is said to be complete accounts of recent u s experience cite the failure of dollar prices of imported goods to rise in proportion to exchange rates i e incomplete pass through as an important factor in explaining the persistence of the trade deficit unfortunately observations on pass through alone provide limited insight into the behavior of markets since incomplete pass through is consistent with at least two fundamentally different paradigms one is the standard competitive model of trade in which the law of one price holds but exchange rate fluctuations are associated with large changes in import demand due to other factors for example if dollar appreciation is correlated with increases in world demand and industry marginal cost is increasing then pass through will be less than complete the other is an imperfectly competitive model in which exporters are capable of price discriminating across destination markets a phenomenon paul krugman 1987 has labeled pricing to market in this model incomplete pass through is typically associated with fluctuations in the markup of price over marginal cost on exports 2 these fluctuations in markups are believed to be countryspecific they do not reflect the behavior of prices to other export destinations both models are plausible explanations of recent u s experience unfortunately it is impossible to distinguish between these competing models using only information on import prices and exchange rates for a single country in order to distinguish between the competing models an empirical analysis of goods prices and exchange rates must be capable of measuring either marginal cost or the markup over marginal cost either of these tasks poses formidable empirical problems much of the empirical literature in industrial organization has been concerned with precisely these issues since markups are an important measure of the competitiveness of industries

multinational investment under uncertainty in the chemical processing industries this study uses a sample of chemical processing industries to evaluate the effect of two types of uncertainty on the decision to invest in an industry it analyzes the effects of relative price uncertainty through exchange rates and input prices and demand uncertainty on the probability of expansion in a particular country the study then focuses on the behavior of individual companies and distinguishes companies by whether or not they are multinationals in the production of the product the results confirm previous evidence that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative effect on capacity expansions by domestic corporations and no effect on investment by multinational corporations finally the study also shows that expansions of production capacity in this industry are more likely to occur in those countries where capacity utilization is higher

monopolistic competiton on the pyramid the purpose of this paper is to develop a model of monopolistic competition that has a simple locational interpretation and which allows for multifirm competition one of the major weaknesses of the standard circular road model is the fact that it allows only localized competition this creates problems when one wishes to analyze problems of international trade where one often has to work with firms with different production costs one of the major advantages of the pyramid model presented here is that one can easily compute the firms equilibrium profits even when their production costs differ copyright 1991 by blackwell publishing ltd

exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics evidence from canada japan and the usa abstract this paper examines industry level exchange rate exposures for canada japan and the usa measuring exposure by adding the change in the exchange rate to the domestic market model of industry portfolio returns some industries in all three countries display significant exposures moreover for each country the exchange rate is important for explaining industry returns at the economy wide level to explore whether exchange rate exposures are systematically linked to the activities of the industries we model exposure as a function of industry characteristics for all three countries the relation between exposure and industry characteristics is broadly consistent with economic theory jel f3

measuring the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets conventional and bayesian approaches estimating the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid ask spreads are usually not observed based on an ability to reflect simulated data from roll s spread model we assess the effectiveness of conventional and bayesian bid ask spread estimators under different market conditions conventional serial covariance and absolute price change spread estimators appear to be biased hasbrouck s bayesian estimator generates small costs of liquidity whose values depend on the correlation and noise in the data the absolute value bayesian estimator is precise and works well under conditions of high levels of noise and correlation usually found in agricultural futures markets using data from live cattle lc and lean hog lh contracts we find similar patterns of performance that produce economically meaningful cost of liquidity differences

the foreign exchange exposure of japanese multinational corporations we find that about 25 percent of our sample of 171 japanese multinationals stock returns experienced economically significant positive exposure effects for the period january 1979 to december 1993 the extent to which a firm is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations can be explained by the level of its export ratio and by variables that are proxies for its hedging needs highly leveraged firms or firms with low liquidity tend to have smaller exposures foreign exposure is found to increase with firm size we also find that keiretsu multinationals are more exposed to exchange rate risk than nonkeiretsu firms it is conventional wisdom that exchange rate movements affect both the cash flows of a firm s operations and the discount rate employed to value these cash flows measuring foreign exchange exposure is now a central issue of international financial management and this issue has spawned a considerable amount of research existing empirical evidence on foreign exchange exposure however seems perplexing studies have so far documented a weak link between contemporaneous exchange rate fluctuations and stock returns of u s multinational firms 2 gendreau 1994 finds it difficult and unconvincing that the weak results imply that exchange rate changes have no effect on exporters stock returns bartov arnd bodnar 1994 attribute the observed insignificant relationship between exchange rate changes and st ock returns to probable problems associated with the previous studies samiple selection procedure or to mispricing caused by investors errors in estimat

resolving the exposure puzzle the many facets of exchange rate exposure theory predicts sizeable exchange rate fx exposure for many firms however empirical research has not documented such exposures to examine this discrepancy we extend prior theoretical results to model a global firm s fx exposure and show empirically that firms pass through part of currency changes to customers and utilize both operational and financial hedges for a typical sample firm pass through and operational hedging each reduce exposure by 10 15 financial hedging with foreign debt and to a lesser extent fx derivatives decreases exposure by about 40 the combination of these factors reduces fx exposures to observed levels

the initiation and withdrawal of odd eighth quotes among nasdaq stocks an empirical analysis christie and schultz 1994 journal of finance 49 1813 1840 nd that market makers in many active nasdaq stocks avoid odd eighth quotes this paper studies 67 58 nasdaq stocks whose market makers initiate withdraw odd eighth quotes these regime shifts are often completed within the span of a day and coincide with dramatic changes in dollar percentage and e ective spreads in most cases we are unable to identify comparable changes in the costs of making markets we do identify long run changes in average prices that may provide a partial explanation however we also nd

the short run dynamics of the price adjustment to new information we examine how prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets adjust to the new information contained in scheduled macroeconomic news releases in the very short run using 10 second returns and tick by tick data we find that prices adjust in a series of numerous small but rapid price changes that begin within 10 seconds of the news release and are basically completed within 40 seconds of the release there is some evidence that prices overreact in the first 40 seconds but that this is corrected in the second or third minute after the release while volatility tends to be higher than normal just before the news release there is no evidence of information leakage in our analysis we correct for the biases created by bid ask spreads and tick by tick data

deutsche mark dollar volatility intraday activity patterns macroeconomic announcements and longer run dependencies this paper provides a detailed characterization of the volatility in the deutsche mark dollar foreign exchange market using an annual sample of five minute returns the approach captures the intraday activity patterns the macroeconomic announcements and the volatility persistence arch known from daily returns the different features are separately quantified and shown to account for a substantial fraction of return variability both at the intraday and daily level the implications of the results for the interpretation of the fundamental driving forces behind the volatility process is also discussed the efficient market hypothesis contends that financial asset prices provide rational assessments of fundamental values and future payoffs by implication price changes should reflect the arrival and processing of all relevant new information however the proportion of return variability that can be ascribed to public news announcements is low for example cutler poterba and summers 1989 find that even the largest daily price changes in the stock market generally cannot be associated with any significant economic news 1 moreover proxies for the flow of public information e g the number of news items released by reuter s news service berry and hiowe 1994 or dow jones company mitchell and mulherin 1994 explain little of the overall variation thus if private information is ruled out proponents of rational price formation have to assert the existence of important news items

bid ask spreads in the interbank foreign exchange markets abstract this study provides evidence on quotations and bid ask spreads in the wholesale foreign exchange market and introduces a method to document variation in the placement of quotes relative to asset value i find that spreads widen with proxies for inventory carrying costs including forecasts of price risk and a measure of liquidity costs increases in spreads before nontrading periods can also be attributed to inventory costs the location of currency quotes in relation to value is not constant and the outcome of hypothesis tests regarding changes in currency value can be sensitive to allowances for variation in quote location

political equilibrium income distribution and growth this paper analyzes the impact of income distribution on growth when investment in human capital is the source of growth and individuals vote over the degree of redistribution in the economy the model has three main features first very different patterns of income distribution are conducive to high growth at different levels of per capita income second growth is associated with an externality whereby investment in human capital by one group increases the productivity of other groups thus potentially enabling them to invest in human capital third the initial pattern of income distribution and the resulting political equilibrium are crucial in determining whether the transmission of this externality is promoted in which case growth is enhanced or prevented in which case growth is stopped using a non overlapping generations model with voting i derive several empirical implications in particular the model implies an inverted u relation between levels of inequality and levels of income in cross sections but not necessarily in time series a result that seems consistent with a number of empirical studies

how much income redistribution an explanation based on vote buying and corruption this paper studies how income tax rates are determined and how they are related to government corruption in the form of fund capture a model is presented where rich voters can block redistribution by buying the votes of some poor voters in equilibrium there is only limited redistribution and income tax rates are a negative function of government corruption when rich voters can bribe the government an additional equilibrium with zero taxation is possible the link between corruption and tax rates is tested using cross country data the empirical evidence is fully consistent with the predictions of the model

the effects of industry structure on economic exposure abstract a firm is subject to economic exposure if changes in exchange rates affect the firm s value as measured by the present value of its future cash flows this paper shows that in many forms of competition including the most commonly studied case of monopoly the economic exposure of an exporting firm is simply proportional to the firm s net revenues based in foreign currency this simple result breaks down under some but not all forms of competition between the exporting firm and foreign firms in that case the exporting firm needs to know about the price elasticity of its product demand and its marginal cost in order to assess its exposure to exchange rates the key determinant of economic exposure therefore is the competitive structure of the industry in which a firm operates

hyteresis in import prices the beachhead effect this paper shows that temporary real exchange rate fluctuations can have persistent hysteretic effects on trade specifically when market entry costs are sunk sufficiently large exchange rate shocks alter domestic market structure and thereby induce hysteresis this simple result has strong implications for exchange rate theory t rade policy and estimation of trade equations empirical evidence su ggests that the recent dollar overvaluation induced hysteresis in u s import prices namely the aggregate pass through equation of exchange rates to import prices shifted in the 1980s the shift s nature and timing is broadly consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis copyright 1988 by american economic association

execution costs and their intraday variation in futures markets we consider trading costs in the transparent competitive open outcry markets of the chicago mercantile exchange cme in which market makers have no affirmative obligation to trade we document that while cme spreads are similar in magnitude to those in other markets realized spreads are often negative a plausible explanation is that cme market makers are able to employ more complex trading strategies than their equity market counterparts because they are not bound by affirmative obligation the evidence suggests that market transparency and market maker obligations are important determinants of intraday variation in trading costs copyright 2001 by university of chicago press

models of political economy of growth a short survey abstract this paper surveys recent work on the political economy of growth after presenting the general structure of a model of politics and growth with heterogenous agents we discuss the role of dynamic strategic political behavior the existence of multiple equilibria and how endogenous political participation interacts with the dynamics of wealth distribution and economic development

education democracy and growth abstract this note presents a model of endogenous growth where redistribution determined by a political equilibrium is in the form of public education it is shown that there need not be a negative relationship between growth and redistribution as public education increases the level of human capital in the conomy and at the same time tends to produce a more even income distribution

a note on the effect of cost changes on prices in a recent article in this journal sumner 1981 took an ingenious approach to estimating the level of monopoly power in the cigarette industry he noted that differences in marginal costs exist in the industry due to varying levels of state taxes the sales prices established will satisfy the equation p i liq l mr mc where p price and q the elasticity of demand for the product in question if elasticity is a constant observing the change in marginal cost and the change in price enables one to infer the elasticity of demand perceived by the firm elasticity could then be used as a proxy for the firm s market power this technique turns out to be of very limited applicability however because it is extremely sensitive to the functional form assumed for the demand curve consider the general problem of a firm facing constant marginal costs of c in maximizing profits the firm solves

u k and u s trading of british cross listed stocks an intraday analysis of market integration this article analyzes intraday patterns for u k and u s trading of british cross listed stocks for each market the intraday patterns for these stocks closely resemble those of otherwise similar non cross listed stocks there is a 2 hour period each day when cross listed stocks are traded both in new york and in london this overlap is characterized by concentrated trading as private information originating in new york gets incorporated into prices in both markets cross border competition for order flow tends to reduce already declining spreads in london by contrast new york specialists maintain high spreads during the overlap overall the evidence indicates that order flow for cross listed securities is segmented article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

the effect of exchange rate variability on us shareholder wealth we examine the relationship between financial crisis exchange rate variability and equity return volatility for us multinationals empirical analysis of the major financial crises of the last decades reveals that stock return variability increases significantly in the aftermath of a crisis even relative to the increase in stock return volatility for other firms belonging to the same industry and market capitalization class in conjunction with this increase in total volatility there is also an increase in stock market risk for multinational firms moreover trade and service oriented industries appear to be particularly sensitive to these changing exchange rate conditions

parental choice of human capital investment abstract in this paper we present a model in which parents make schooling decisions for their children we compare two educational regimes public and private education in the private education regime all human capital investment decisions are made by individuals under public education the government uses income tax revenue to finance one input to schooling in the private education regime cycles may occur even though there are constant returns to scale in the augmentable factors in the public education regime there are no cycles but poverty traps may occur

investment pass through and exchange rates a cross country comparison using detailed data from the united states canada the united kingdom and japan we examine the implications of exchange rates for time series of sectoral investment both theoretically and empirically we show that investment responsiveness to exchange rates varies over time positively in relation to sectoral reliance on export share and negatively with respect to the share of imported inputs in production important differences exist in investment endogeneity across high and low price over cost markup sectors with investment in low markup sectors often significantly more responsive to exchange rates cross country differences in investment response are only partially explained by industrial organization arguments

market structure and price cost margins in a paper that has become a standard reference in the structure conductperformance approach to industrial economics cowling and waterson 1976 developed a theoretical rationale for expecting industry profitability to be positively correlated with the level of concentration their model based on a simple algebraic description of oligopoly behaviour has been interpreted as providing a justification for the common empirical practice of cross industry regression analysis of price cost margins in terms of concentration levels in the present paper we show that on further examination this model implies a joint determination of margins and concentration this provides some interesting comparative static results of relevance to inter industry differences in concentration levels equally however it leads to various cautionary insights concerning the meaning of price cost margin versus concentration regressions

investment in manufacturing exchange rates and external exposure abstract this paper introduces a new measure of external exposure which emphasizes exposure to external markets both through export sales and imported inputs into production and uses this measure to explore the linkage between exchange rates and investment in us industry on average manufacturing sectors have evolved to being primarily import exposed by the early 1980s in low price over cost markup sectors markups are relatively unresponsive to exchange rate changes whereas sectoral investment patterns are strongly affected by contrast high markup industries absorb much of the exchange rate fluctuations in markups and pass relatively little through to real investment

effects of market reform on the trading costs and depths of nasdaq stocks the relative merits of dealer versus auction markets have been a subject of significant and sometimes contentious debate on january 20 1997 the securities and exchange commission began implementing reforms that would permit the public to compete directly with nasdaq dealers by submitting binding limit orders additionally superior quotes placed by nasdaq dealers in private trading venues began to be displayed in the nasdaq market we measure the impact of these new rules on various measures of performance including trading costs and depths our results indicate that quoted and effective spreads fell dramatically without adversely affecting market quality

the exchange rate exposure of u s multinationals this article examines the exposure of u s multinationals to foreign currency risk evidence is presented that the relationship between stock returns and exchange rates differs systematically across multinationals given these results the study focuses on the determinants of exchange rate exposure the comovements between stock returns and the value of the dollar is found to be positively related to the percentage of foreign operations of u s multinationals copyright 1990 by the university of chicago

is financial openness bad for education a political economy perspective on development abstract this paper presents a simple model of the links between education democratization and economic development in a context of imperfect capital markets we investigate the incentives for a capitalist oligarchy to subsidize the education of poor workers and to initiate a political transition it is shown that international financial liberalization while stimulating physical capital accumulation reduces the capitalist elite willingness to subsidize domestic human capital accumulation in the medium run it thus delays without necessarily impeding the process of democratization

exchange rate exposure and foreign market competition evidence from japanese firms in this paper we focus on the impact of foreign competition on exposure or the responsiveness of profits to fluctuations in exchange rates we find that of the 15 four digit level japanese export industries in our sample 10 industries are better characterized as cournot competitors in foreign markets rather than colluding firms depending on the industry exposure elasticities range from 0 5 to 8 5 with an average of around 2 5 these elasticities on the whole are much higher than those found in earlier research collusive exporters tend to have higher elasticities than competitive exporters

the relation between firm growth and q with multiple capital goods theory and evidence from panel data on japanese firms we derive from a model of investment with multiple capital goods a one to one relation between the growth rate of the capital aggregate and the stock market based q we estimate the growth q relation using a panel of japanese manufacturing firms taking into account the endogeneity of q identification is achieved by combining the theoretical structure of the q model and an assumed serial correlation structure of the technology shock which is the error term in the growth q equation for early years of our sample cash flow has significant explanatory power over and above q the significance of cash flow disappears for more recent years for the heavy industry when japanese capital markets was liberalized the estimated q coefficient implies that the adjustment cost is less than a half of gross profits net of the adjustment cost

hedging demand and market intraday momentum hedging short gamma exposure requires trading in the direction of price movements thereby creating price momentum using intraday returns on over 60 futures on equities bonds commodities and currencies between 1974 and 2020 we document strong market intraday momentum everywhere the return during the last 30 minutes before the market close is positively predicted by the return during the rest of the day from previous market close to the last 30 minutes the predictive power is economically and statistically highly significant and reverts over the next days we provide novel evidence that links market intraday momentum to the gamma hedging demand from market participants such as market makers of options and leveraged etfs

distributive politics and economic growth a crude distinction between economics and politics would be that economics is concerned with expanding the pie while politics is about distributing it in this paper we analyze the relationship between the two we focus on how an economy s initial configuration of resources shapes the political struggle for income and wealth distribution and how that in turn affects long run growth our main conclusion is that inequality is conducive to the adoption of growth retarding policies we derive this result from a simple political economy model of growth and present cross country evidence consistent with it the key feature of our model is that individuals differ in their relative factor endowments we distinguish between two types of factors an accumulated factor called capital and a nonaccumulated factor called labor growth is driven by the expansion of the capital stock which is in turn determined by individual saving decisions long run growth is endogenous as the aggregate production function is taken to be linearly homogeneous in capital and productive government services taken together the provision of government services is financed by a tax on capital because government services are productive a small tax on

pass through and exposure firms differ in the extent to which they pass through changes in exchange rates into foreign currency prices and in their exposure to exchange rates the responsiveness of their profits to changes in exchange rates because pricing affects profitability a firm s pass through and exposure should be related this paper develops models of exporting firms under imperfect competition to study these related phenomena from these models we derive the optimal pass through decisions and the resulting exchange rate exposure the models are estimated on eight japanese export industries using both the price data pass through and financial data for exposure exchange rates can have a major inf luence on the pricing behavior and profitability of exporting and importing firms firms differ in the extent to which they pass through the change in exchange rates into the prices they charge in foreign markets they also differ in their exposure to exchange rates the responsiveness of their profits to changes in exchange rates previous papers have studied either pass through or exposure but none has studied these two phenomena together yet because pricing directly affects profitability the exposure of a firm s profits to exchange rates should be governed by many of the same firm and industry characteristics that determine pricing behavior this paper develops models of firm and industry behavior that are used to study these closely related phenomena together it also provides estimates of pass through and exposure behavior using data from japanese export industries to examine pass through behavior and exchange rate exposure we model a firm with sales to a foreign export market this exporting firm competes with a foreign firm in that export market the costs of the exporting firm are based primarily in the local domestic currency while the foreign firm

volatility in the foreign currency futures market we examine the volatility implications of around the clock foreign exchange trading with transaction data on futures contracts from the chicago mercantile exchange and the london international financial futures exchange we find higher u s european and u s japanese exchange rate volatilities during u s trading hours and higher european cross rate volatilities during european trading hours while the diclosure of private information through trading may partly explain these volatility patterns we conclude that the increased volatility is more likely driven by macroeconomic news announcements an analysis of inter and intraday data also reveals that volatility increases at times that coincide with the release of u s macroeconomic news article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

strategic foreign exchange management this paper argues that it is possible to advise firms on how to hedge against foreign exchange risks only if one has detailed knowledge of the competitive environment they work in to illustrate this we compare firms hedging requirements in a number of different standard industrial organizations models in particular the cournot model a model with conjectural variations price taking firms and monopolistic competition consider the situation of a firm producing in germany and selling an important part of its total output in the us obviously its profitability may be seriously compromised by an unexpected appreciation of the dm relatively to the the company can react to this uncertainty in two ways either it can assume that the conditions of the modigliani miller theorem are approximately fulfilled and that it best serves the interests of its shareholders by behaving in a risk neutral fashion alternatively the firm may for a variety of reasons behave as a risk averter itself and try to obtain some coverage against exchange rate risk when looking at the amount of insurance taken up by companies on conventional insurance markets one gets the impression that the latter alternative risk averse firms is for many practical cases a realistic assumption the activities of many companies are more easily understood if one admits that they exhibit a certain degree of risk aversion if one accepts this one may go on to ask just how companies should go about insuring themselves against unexpected exchange rate fluctuations more specifically one has to study how much exchange risk the firms should insure against and which exchange rates are of relevance in the example above of a german company selling in the us the answer might at first sight seem obvious the company should obtain coverage against dm fluctuations for an amount approximately equal to its anticipated revenues on brief reflection it immediately appears that this is surely an excessively simplistic answer first the amount of coverage required must be affected by the question of how the price of the product varies when the dm exchange rate shifts second it may be the case that the german company s main competitors are located in say france in this case fluctuations of the

the trading profits of soes bandits1 abstract soes bandits are individual investors who use nasdaq s small order execution system soes for day trading their average profit per trade is small but they trade dozens or hundreds of times per week bandits usually establish a position before most market makers have updated their quotes and lay off the position at favorable prices through instinet or selectnet it is noteworthy that they trade profitably with market makers despite having less information bandits keep the profits and bear the losses from their trades thus they have greater incentives to trade well than the employees of market making firms

exchange rates and prices the adjustment of relative prices to exchange rate movements is explained in an industrial organization approach given labor costs in the respective currencies exchange rate movements change costs for firms selling in the home market and thus disturb the industry equilibrium the extent of absolute and relative price adjustment is shown to depend on market integration product substitutability the relative number of domestic and foreign firms and the market structure the impact of exchange rates on prices is illustrated in a variety of approaches including the cournot a dixit and j stiglitz 1977 and s salop 1979 models some empirical evidence is offered in support of the theory copyright 1987 by american economic association

breaking the silos distributed knowledge and strategic responses to volatile exchange rates a model of effective decision making in a situation of distributed knowledge is developed drawing on three perspectives the sociocognitive perspective which focuses on framing issues the economic perspective which focuses on the role played by incentives in the integration of knowledge and decision making authority and the process perspective which stresses the role of integrating mechanisms and of processes that either hinder or foster risk awareness and flexibility the model is tested on a sample of managers from different functional areas of fortune 500 firms using strategic responses to exchange rate volatility as the context the results show that all three perspectives framing incentives and process are significant in explaining the effectiveness of strategic responses to volatile exchange rates the findings suggest that simultaneously addressing managerial mindsets incentives and process may be crucial to generating effective strategic responses across functions

international comparisons of pricing to market behavior this paper measures the degree of price discrimination across export destinations that is associated with exchange rate changes using u s u k german and japanese industry level data given the industries sampled more price discrimination across destinations is observed in the u k german and japanese data for industries that match across source countries however behavior is very similar across source countries furthermore destination specific price adjustment on exports to the united states from germany and japan is similar to price adjustment observed on shipments to other destinations most variation in the data appears to be related to industry copyright 1993 by american economic association