does economic recession reduce material use empirical evidence based on 157 economies worldwide abstract the research on economic recession has been more focused on the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables however whether material use has been affected during the recession period has remained under explored in order to fill up this gap this study investigates the relationship between material use and economic recession as well as other socio economic drivers by using the material flow analysis and the system generalized method of moments for 157 economies worldwide during 1980 2011 results show that economic recession poses significant and negative impact on domestic material consumption at 1 level illustrating its role as a determinant factor on material mitigation by dividing the research sample into extractive and non extractive economies as well as high mid and low income groups we again confirmed the significant negative correlations as expected no significant sign is found between recession and physical trade balance besides other drivers such as population gross domestic production gdp per capita and technological variables also exert marked effects at different situations this research work provides an empirical study on how recession and other factors affect material use at various scenarios which have essential implications for understanding material flow dynamics in different economic cycles

support systems for the diffusion of renewable energy technologies an investor perspective concern over climate change impacts and the projected depletion of fossil fuels has urged more governments to adopt policies that stimulate the diffusion of renewable energy technologies ret with an increasingly diverse suite of support instruments the question emerges as to which instruments or combinations are able to achieve faster more substantial diffusion results although various support instruments were extensively addressed in policy studies there is still no consensus this is partly because many policy studies take a policy maker approach in comparing support instruments leaving relationships between policy design and policy results as a black box this paper proposes an investor oriented perspective to analyze the diffusion potential of support systems for ret the main argument is that it is not the type of support instrument but rather its risk profitability characteristics that influence investor behavior and the rate of diffusion the two instruments most frequently discussed and compared are the feed in tariff and the quota model the analysis in this paper concludes that policy design is crucial while often feed in tariffs are applauded and quota system feared feed in tariffs may also bring about disappointing diffusion results when poorly designed while quota systems may be also conceived as attractive instruments for independent power producers

external liabilities and crises abstract we examine the determinants of external crises focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970 2011 we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to gdp is a significant crisis predictor this is primarily due to the net position in debt instruments the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net fdi liabilities seem if anything an offset factor we also find that i breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction ii the current account is a powerful predictor iii foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings and iv a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in and out of sample the latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises sensu stricto

boom and bust cycles external imbalances and the real exchange rate when the current account balance and net capital outflows do not exactly offset each other international payment flows arise payment flows into a country push the real exchange rate up payment outflows push it down this article uses a model of optimal consumption and portfolio choice to determine the factors that drive international payment flows during boom and bust cycles it shows that during such episodes capital inflows first exceed the deficit on current account strengthening the currency later on when the return on domestic capital reverts to its normal level the current account recovers yet the overall decline of the net foreign asset position provokes a fall of the real exchange rate even below its initial level case studies of countries experiencing rapid economic expansions followed by economic and financial meltdowns confirm the article s theoretical predictions

the speculative attack on the peso and the real exchange rate argentina 1979 1981 abstract this article applies a speculative attack model to argentina during its pre announced exchange rate system from january 1 1979 to june 30 1981 the model attempts to verify a rule whereby if domestic credit growth exceeds the rate of currency depreciation two things occur first the domestic price of non traded goods rises relative to the price of traded goods second foreign reserves decline until a point when a sudden speculative attack depletes remaining reserves causes a precipitous fall in the relative price of non tradables and forces the country onto a floating exchange rate regime in some important respects the model captures the argentinian experience yet in other respects if fails to do so

capital controls capital flow contractions and macroeconomic vulnerability abstract in this paper i analyze whether restrictions to capital mobility reduce vulnerability to external shocks more specifically i ask if countries that restrict the free flow of international capital have a lower probability of experiencing a large contraction in net capital flows i use three new indexes on the degree of international financial integration and a large multi country data set for 1970 2004 to estimate a series of random effect probit equations i find that the marginal effect of higher capital mobility on the probability of a capital flow contraction is positive and statistically significant but very small having a flexible exchange rate greatly reduces the probability of experiencing a capital flow contraction the benefits of flexible rates increase as the degree of capital mobility increases a higher current account deficit increases the probability of a capital flow contraction while a higher ratio of fdi to gdp reduces that probability

crises and exchange rate regimes time to break down the bipolar view we revisit the link between crises and exchange rate regimes err using a panel of 90 developed and developing countries over the period 1980 2009 we find that corner err are not more prone to crises compared to intermediate err this finding holds for different types of crises banking currency and debt and is robust to a wide set of alternative specifications consequently we clearly break down the traditional bipolar view countries that aim at preventing crisis episodes should focus less on the choice of the err and instead implement sound structural macroeconomic policies

estimating systemic risk in the international financial system this paper develops three distinct methods to quantify the risk of a systemic failure in the global banking system we examine a sample of 334 banks representing 80 of global bank equity in 28 countries around five global financial crises our results suggest statistically significant but economically small increases in systemic risk although policy responses are endogenous the low estimated probabilities suggest that the distress of central bankers regulators and politicians about the events we study could be overstated and that current policy responses to financial crises could be adequate to handle major macroeconomic events

currency misalignments and growth a new look using nonlinear panel data methods the aim of this article is to investigate the link between currency misalignments and economic growth relying on panel cointegration techniques we calculate real exchange rate rer misalignments as deviations of actual rers from their equilibrium values for a set of advanced and emerging economies estimating panel smooth transition regression pstr models we show that rer misalignments have a differentiated impact on economic growth depending on their sign whereas overvaluations negatively affect economic growth rer undervaluations significantly enhance it this result indicates that undervaluations may drive the exchange rate to a level that encourages exports and promotes growth

real exchange rate overvaluation and wto dispute initiation in developing countries why and when do developing countries file trade disputes at the world trade organization wto although financial conditions have long been considered an important driver of trade policy they have been largely absent from the literature on trade disputes we argue that developing country governments bring more trade dispute to the wto when overvalued real exchange rates put exporters at a competitive disadvantage this dynamic is most prevalent in countries where large foreign currency debt burdens discourage nominal currency devaluations that would otherwise serve exporters interests our findings provide an explanation for differences in dispute participation rates among developing countries and also suggest a new link between exchange rate regimes and trade policy

international financial contagion in currency crises abstract this paper examines the role of financial linkages especially through a common creditor in the propagation of emerging market crises during the 1990s using panel probit regressions on 41 emerging market countries it finds that financial linkages played a significant role in the spread of the mexican asian and russian crises the significance of financial linkages emerges after controlling for the role of domestic and external fundamentals trade spillovers and financial weaknesses in the affected countries a strong financial linkage to the crisis country of origin not only substantially raises the probability of contagion but also helps to explain the observed regional concentration of currency crises

a market for renewable energy credits in the indian power sector abstract electricity generation from renewable energy sources in india has been promoted through a host of fiscal policies and preferential tariff for electricity produced from the same the fiscal policies include tax incentives and purchase of electricity generated through renewable energy sources the enactment of the electricity act 2003 the act has lent further support to renewable energy by stipulating purchase of a certain percentage of the power procurement by distribution utilities from renewable energy sources the renewable portfolio obligation as well as the feed in tariff for power procurement has been specified by a number of state electricity regulatory commissions sercs for the respective state under their jurisdiction a feed in tariff determined through a cost plus approach under a rate of return framework lacks incentive for cost minimisation and does not encourage optimal utilisation of renewable energy resources in the country such regulatory provisions differ across states the prevalent practice of fixing a renewable portfolio obligation along with cost based feed in tariffs disregards economic efficiency the paper proposes nationally tradable renewable energy credits scheme for achieving the targets set by the respective sercs as renewable portfolio obligation this would reduce the cost of compliance to a renewable portfolio obligation and would encourage efficient resource utilisation and investment in appropriate technologies the paper highlights its advantages and implementation issues this paper discusses regulatory developments for promotion of renewable energy in various indian states the paper also identifies a number of issues related to regulations concerning renewable portfolio obligation

can leading indicators assess country vulnerability evidence from the 2008 09 global financial crisis abstract we investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross country incidence of the 2008 09 financial crisis rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the recent crisis the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators our motivation is to address suspicions that indicators found to be useful predictors in one round of crises are typically not useful to predict the next round the review suggests that central bank reserves and past movements in the real exchange rate were the two leading indicators that had proven the most useful in explaining crisis incidence across different countries and episodes in the past for the 2008 09 crisis we use six different variables to measure crisis incidence drops in gdp and industrial production currency depreciation stock market performance reserve losses and participation in an imf program we find that the level of reserves in 2007 appears as a consistent and statistically significant leading indicator of who got hit by the 2008 09 crisis in line with the conclusions of the pre 2008 literature in addition to reserves recent real appreciation is a statistically significant predictor of devaluation and of a measure of exchange market pressure during the current crisis we define the period of the global financial shock as running from late 2008 to early 2009 which probably explains why we find stronger results than earlier papers such as obstfeld et al 2009 2010 and rose and spiegel 2009a b 2010 2011 which use annual data

a new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises can a machine learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively abstract this paper presents a hybrid causal model for predicting the occurrence of currency crises by using the neuro fuzzy modeling approach the model integrates the learning ability of the neural network with the inference mechanism of fuzzy logic the empirical results show that the proposed neuro fuzzy model leads to a better prediction of crisis significantly the model can also construct a reliable causal relationship among the variables through the obtained knowledge base compared to neural network and the traditionally used techniques such as logit the proposed model can thus lead to a somewhat more prescriptive modeling approach based on determinate causal mechanisms towards finding ways to prevent currency crises

impacts of novel protein foods on sustainable food production and consumption lifestyle change and environmental policy we analyse the impacts of a change in consumers preference for novel protein foods npfs i e a lifestyle change with respect to meat consumption and the impacts of environmental policies e g tradable emission permits for greenhouse gases ghgs or an eu ammonia nh3 emission bound per hectare for our analysis we use a global applied general equilibrium age model that includes consumers lifestyle change different production systems emissions from agricultural sectors and an emission permits system our study leads to the following conclusions firstly more consumption of npfs assists in reducing global agricultural emissions of methane ch4 nitrous oxides n2o and nh3 however because of international trade emission reduction does not necessarily occur in the regions where more npfs are consumed secondly through lifestyle change of the rich the emission reduction is not substantial because more intermediate consumers will increase their meat consumption finally for the same environmental target the production structure changes towards less intensive technologies and more grazing under environmental policy than under lifestyle change

financial contagion and international portfolio flows financial contagion is an issue of interest to policymakers and portfolio managers in the presence of contagion the benefits of geographical diversification may be overstated contagion is defined independently of changes in macroeconomic fundamentals it corresponds to a situation in which shocks in one country spread to another country in a significantly more pronounced manner than during quiet times in the study reported here i attempted to measure contagion from daily cross border portfolio flows using data from state street bank and trust company i constructed three indexes for 1996 through 2000 i found little statistical evidence of contagion but the weighted index that measured the contagiousness of flows reached its four year low in august 1998 suggesting that the russian crisis was characterized by both contagion and large aggregate outflows i also found that contagion appears to be regional and that the developed countries seem to be sheltered from contagion

sudden stops are global and local investors alike the main goal of this paper is to characterize the determinants of sudden stops caused by domestic vis a vis foreign residents are the decisions of domestic investors to invest abroad or of foreign investors to cut off funds from the domestic economy governed by the same set of determinants given the distribution of different types of sudden stop episodes over time and its different macroeconomic consequences the authors argue that the determinants may not be alike using an effective sample of 82 countries with annual information over the period 1970 2007 the analysis finds that global investors are less likely to stop bringing their capital when their economy is growing and the world interest rate is lower domestic agents are more willing to invest abroad if the macroeconomic performance of the domestic economy is poor high inflation the financial system is weak and there are high external savings current account surpluses increasing financial openness makes the domestic country more vulnerable to sudden stops caused by either local or global investors finally countries with higher shares of foreign direct investment are less prone to inflow driven sudden stops whereas the opposite holds for outflow driven sudden stops

renewable energy certificate mechanism in india a preliminary assessment abstract the indian national action plan for climate change napcc envisages several measures to address global climate change one of the important measures identified involves increasing the share of renewable energy in total electricity consumption in the country this would mean napcc envisages renewable energy to constitute approximately 15 of the energy mix of india by 2020 to achieve the target set by the napcc indian ministry of power launched renewable energy certificate rec mechanism in november 2010 however participation in the rec markets is low and recs have failed to attract significant investment so far in this study a preliminary attempt has been made to assess the performance of existing rec mechanism in india after highlighting the salient features of the indian renewable energy policy framework a brief description of renewable purchase obligation rpo and source specific rpos for different states is discussed along with an overview of rec market in india to date the performance of indian rec mechanism is evaluated by cost competiveness decentralized distributed generation and renewable energy portfolio diversity and their effectiveness has also been measured on the basis of the available data although it is difficult to make any conclusive remark on the success or failure of rec mechanism due to its short experience this study examines the process to date to come out with some recommendations which can be used to fine tune the functioning of existing rec market in india for instance rec price bounds should be revised because it has been not explicitly supporting cost competiveness by offering 60 33 higher average price than the existing average feed in tariff fit it is also observed that state wise contribution in registered capacity is skewed towards few states like tamil nadu 27 maharashtra 23 and uttar pradesh 22 which puts pressure on policy makers to restructure the existing rec mechanism

crisis in the eye of the beholder economic crisis and partisan politics in latin american and east european international monetary fund programs this article analyzes the interaction between economic crises and partisan politics during international monetary fund program initiation in latin america in the 1980s and eastern europe in the 1990s the author argues that economic crises are at least in part in the eye of the beholder and therefore policy responses reflect the interaction between crisis intensity and the government s partisan interpretation of the crisis which in turn depends on the nature of the economic crisis and its broader regional and international environment using cross country statistical evidence from the two regions the article shows that certain types of crises such as liquidity shortfalls elicit similar responses across the ideological spectrum and regional contexts by contrast debt repayment and domestic crises are more prone to divergent ideological interpretations but the extent of partisan divergence is context sensitive in that it occurred during the latin american debt crisis but not in the post communist tra

false prophet or genuine savior assessing the effects of economic openness on sustainable development 1980 99 while many herald globalization the increasing interconnectedness of national economies to be associated with rising standards of living across the globe others fear its effects on sustainability antiglobalization forces and environ mentalists view these developments as a threat to the welfare of future generations because of profligate and excessive current consumption this study is the first to estimate the effects of dependence on trade foreign direct investment fdi and an index of economic freedom on the world bank s measure of sustainability the gen uine savings rate which measures the rate at which investment in the total stock of manufactured human and natural capital exceeds its depreciation contrary to pessi mists fears our indicators of economic openness show positive effects on sustain ability results that are robust to sample size testing procedure and several alternative specifications the results support those who suggest that distorted economies tend to be both inefficient and damaging to future generations if increasing trade fdi and economic freedom are hallmarks of globalization then worries about its effects on future well being are misplaced

basic concepts for designing renewable electricity support aiming at a full scale transition by 2050 abstract renewable electricity supply is a crucial factor in the realization of a low carbon energy economy the understanding is growing that a full turn over of the electricity sectors by 2050 is an elementary condition for avoiding global average temperature increase beyond 2 c this article adopts such full transition as europe s target when designing renewable energy policy an immediate corollary is that phasing in unprecedented energy efficiency and renewable generation must be paralleled by phasing out non sustainable fossil fuel and nuclear power technologies the double phasing programme assigns novel meaning to nearby target settings for renewable power as share of total power consumption it requires organizing in the medium term eu wide markets for green power a highly demanding task in the present context of poorly functional markets in brown power the eu commission s 2007 2008 proposals of expanding tradable certificates markets were not based on solid analysis of past experiences and future necessities the keystone of sound policies on renewable electricity development is a detailed scientific differentiation and qualification of renewable electricity sources and technologies for measuring the huge diversity in the field we provide but structuring concepts about such qualification because implementation requires extensive research resources support for renewable electricity development is organized via feed in prices or premiums and via quota obligations connected to tradable green certificates green certificates are dependent on physical generated renewable power but separable and no joint products contrary to conventional wisdom we argue their separation in cost analysis but firm linking during trade a few graphs illustrate the importance of assigning qualities to different renewable power sources technologies feed in systems based on an acceptable qualification perform generally better than certificate markets imposing uniform approaches on a very diverse reality for a similar reason uniform and undifferentiated taxation of non sustainable energy sources cannot replace renewable energy support schemes capable of differentiation

overcoming problems in turkey s renewable energy policy how can eu contribute abstract fossil fuels cover most of the energy demand in the world and this creates significant social economic and environmental problems many countries have taken measures to increase the share of renewable energy sources res especially in electricity generation and the review of literature shows that the success of a country in res diffusion depends on a comprehensive renewable energy policy which combines political commitment with stable and long term support measures that stimulate technological innovation as the largest economy in the world eu has also taken steps to increase res usage in electricity generation in member states similar to other developing countries turkey is learning lessons from eu experiences regarding res policies and turkey is also reforming its legal framework in line with acquis communautaire as a candidate country as a result eu has a multiway impact on turkey s renewable energy policy an overview of turkey s renewable energy policy showed that eu has significantly contributed to turkey in shaping its renewable energy policy and turkey should increase cooperation with eu in order to utilize its renewable energy potential

role of targeted policies in mainstreaming renewable energy in a resource constrained electricity system a case study of karnataka electricity system in india india is aggressively pursuing its renewable energy capacity expansion goals targeted policies such as feed in tariff fit renewable purchase obligation rpo and renewable energy certificate rec are introduced to stimulate renewable energy capacity expansion as well as generation currently indian power utilities treat rpo targets as a cost burden and therefore there is prevalence of non compliance even other policies such as fit and recs in their present form have failed to influence increase in renewable electricity supply this has lead us to raise an important question whether these policies are adequate for building a cost effective renewable energy based low carbon electricity system for india in this paper we discuss the impact of above targeted policies in increasing the share of renewable electricity generation in the case of karnataka state electricity system various scenarios are developed and analysed using mixed integer programming model to study the impacts the results suggest that optimally managed fit and rec schemes can provide opportunities for utilities to benefit from reduced costs overall the above policies are inadequate and introduction of market based incentives which expand the scope of trading in renewable energy certificates are essential to achieve the desired objectives

the role of foreign currency debt in financial crises 1880 1913 versus 1972 1997 abstract we show that exposure to foreign currency debt does not necessarily increase the risk of having a financial crisis some countries do not suffer from financial fragility despite original sin before 1913 british offshoots and scandinavia afflicted with it avoided financial meltdowns today many advanced countries have original sin but few have had crises in both periods aggregate balance sheet mismatches are associated with a greater likelihood of a crisis the evidence suggests that foreign currency debt is dangerous when mis managed this is part of the difference between developed countries and emerging markets both of which borrow in foreign currency

the development of renewable energy power in india which policies have been effective abstract the international energy agency has identified the development of renewable energy sources as a key element to mitigate climate change at the same time it has projected india to be the second largest contributor to the increase in global energy demand to 2035 india hence faces a significant challenge to ensure its energy security by diversifying its power generation mix in the wake of the creation of a green climate fund in cancun this paper studies empirically the effect of the introduction of the electricity act 2003 and the tariff policy 2006 as well as the implementation of feed in tariffs and minimum quotas on clean electricity sourcing on the development of grid connected renewable energy power in nine indian states over the period 2001 2009 results suggest that the passing of the tariff policy 2006 state level policies quantity based instruments and a greater participation of the private sector have played a key role in promoting the development of installed capacity from renewable energy power in the nine states of the sample

impact of financial crises on poverty in developing world an empirical approach in this paper we adopt a cross country perspective to analyze the short term effects of currency banking and debt crises on poverty we employ multivariate fixed effects panel data analysis in order to examine whether and to what extent different types of financial crises impact the poverty headcount ratio and the poverty gap as measured by the world bank our findings suggest that out of the three categories of financial crises we identify it is currency crises that most significantly exacerbate both the incidence and depth of poverty in the short run we find evidence that banking crises are associated with an increase in the depth of poverty but not the incidence however this effect tends to be short lived while our analysis shows no direct effect of sovereign debt crises on short term poverty

predicting currency fluctuations and crises do resident firms have an informational advantage the authors investigate whether resident enterprise managers have an informational advantage about the countries in which they work they propose a method for extracting information available to resident managers but unknown to investors and forecasters they rest their hypothesis of informational advantage using a unique data set the global competitiveness survey the survey asks local managers about their outlook for the country in which they reside they find that local managers do have useful private information local managers responses improve on conventional forecasts of future volatility and changes in the exchange rate which are based on economic fundamentals or interest rate differentials they find that the local business community perceived in advance the recent crises in the republic of korea russia and thailand but not those in indonesia and malaysia markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates

who recovers first banking crises resolution in developing countries this article evaluates conditions that facilitate banking crises resolution using data from 67 developing countries from 1980 to 1995 in particular the author examines explanatory variables under three categories external macroeconomic constraints the role of the international monetary fund imf and domestic political conditions the principal results of the analyses are twofold first imf credits decrease the probability of resolving banking crises this result holds controlling for potentially confounding variables and in a test for endogeneity second the decisiveness of a political regime significantly influences the probability of emerging from systemic distress specifically in cases of moderate banking distress decisiveness facilitates resolution of crisis but during periods of severe crises less decisive governments i e governments constrained by accountability groups are likely to recover more quickly than are those with less constrained executives

currency crises and institutions abstract this study furthers recent literature on currency crises and institutions the main objective is to re evaluate the causes of currency crises by focusing on the role played by a broader array of institutional factors and crisis episodes than have previously been considered while at the same time controlling for economic factors our dataset consists of over 30 countries covering 13 institutional factors for the period 1984 2002 two questions are addressed they are 1 what mix of institutions may contribute to or set the stage for a currency crisis and 2 what mix of institutions may affect the depth of currency crises as measured by a decline in output our findings reveal that institutional as well as economic factors affect the probability of currency crises and that worse institutions are associated with bigger contractions in output during the crisis in general our strongest results regarding institutions show that corruption a de facto fixed exchange rate regime weak government stability and weak law and order increase the probability of a currency crisis we find mixed evidence that deposit insurance the removal of capital controls a lack of central bank independence financial liberalization and civil law increase the chance of crisis we find a similar set of factors worsens the contraction in output during a crisis except for deposit insurance which we find moderates the contraction in output

extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets abstract this paper uses seemingly unrelated probit techniques to separate the transmission of a crisis due to broadly defined macroeconomic interdependence from contagion due to herding avoiding some of the caveats of the more traditional cross correlation approach we find that pure contagion occurred in a limited number of country pairs generally belonging to the same region a reduction in speculative pressure can also be identified between countries in different regional blocks this seems to suggest that after an initial crisis episode investors tend to discriminate on the basis of location and common macroeconomic weakness or perceived similarity

status and perspectives of renewable energy policy and deployment in the european union what is needed to reach the 2020 targets abstract this article evaluates the status of current res deployment policies and barriers in the eu 27 member states and compares it to the required to meet the 2020 targets the evaluation relies strongly on the quantitative deployment status and policy effectiveness indicators european res deployment and policy has progressed strongly in recent years but the growth here has been mainly driven by effective policies in a small or medium number of top runner countries across europe the highest average policy effectiveness over six years was reached for onshore wind 4 2 biofuels 3 6 and biomass electricity 2 7 while in the heat sector all technologies score below 2 comparing the recent progress to the required growth for meeting the 2020 target it appears that some countries largely exceed the interim targets of the res directive 2009 28 ec despite this europe will need additional policy effort to reach the 2020 target critical success factors include implementing effective and efficient policies that attract sufficient investments reducing administrative and grid related barriers especially in currently less advanced countries upgrading the power grid infrastructure dismantling financial barriers in the heat sector realising sustainability standards for biomass and lowering energy demand through increased energy efficiency efforts

feed in tariff mechanisms for large scale wind power in china abstract in recent years with the large scale and centralized development of the wind power industry in china wind power curtailment has become increasingly serious in order to promote wind power consumption in china this paper designs four kinds of feed in tariff fit mechanisms a double track fit mechanism based on a ratio a time of use benchmarking tariff mechanism a net back pricing mechanism based on the inter provincial wind power consumption market and an fit mechanism based on negotiation then we establish a benefit distribution model to analyze the wind power stakeholders benefits finally based on the four kinds of fit mechanisms and the benefit distribution model we propose the best fit mechanisms for the various electricity market circumstances in china in order to provide a reference to formulate wind fit to promote the consumption of wind power and to advance the sustainable development of renewable energy in developing countries

the structure of public debt and the choice of exchange rate regime this paper explores the relationship between the denomination of public debt and the choice of exchange rate regime three types of debt nominal indexed and foreign and two regimes fixed and flexible are considered indexed debt is insulated against unexpected inflation the real domestic currency value of foreign debt is subject to valuation effects from real exchange rate shocks the fear of floating result that foreign debt makes pegging more attractive is shown to hold unambiguously only if the peg is fully credible if the peg lacks credibility a critical factor is the perceived likelihood of using the escape clause of a switch to a float which raises the costs of pegging foreign debt increases the temptation to resort to the escape clause so when a peg is not fully credible as is almost always the case in reality pegging tends to be less attractive than floating in the presence of foreign debt ce memoire explore le rapport entre la denomination de la dette publique et le choix d un regime de taux de change trois types de dettes sont considerees nominale indexee etrangere et deux types de regimes taux fixes et taux flexibles la dette indexee est immunisee contre l inflation imprevue la valeur reelle en monnaie domestique de la dette etrangere est sujette a des effets attribuables aux chocs dans les taux de change reels la peur de laisser flotter le taux de change aide a comprendre qu une dette etrangere rend le taux fixe plus attrayant mais ce resultat est sans ambiguite seulement si le taux fixe est pleinement credible si le taux fixe manque de credibilite un facteur critique est la perception de la probabilite qu on va utiliser l echappatoire du passage au taux flottant ce qui augmente les cots d un taux fixe la dette etrangere accroit la tentation d avoir recours a la clause echappatoire ce qui fait que quand un taux fixe n est pas pleinement credible comme c est a peu pres toujours le cas en realite un regime de taux de change fixe tend a tre moins attrayant qu un regime de taux de change flottants quand il y a dette etrangere

currency crashes in emerging markets an empirical treatment we use a panel of annual data for over 100 developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes we define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation we examine the composition of the debt as well as its level and a variety of other macroeconomic factors external and foreign crashes tend to occur when output growth is low the growth of domestic credit is high and the level of foreign interest rates are high a low ratio of fdi to debt is consistently associated with a high likelihood of a crash

comparison of renewable energy policy evolution among the brics abstract renewable energy policy evolution of the brics is analyzed and assessed quantitatively based on the bai and perron s structure breaks test results indicate no break for time series of renewable production in russia while series of renewable production and consumption are characterized as segmented trend stationary processes around one or two structural breaks in brazil india and china renewable policies in brazil and china have long term positive effects on renewable energy production and consumption improving the two variables growth rate the time series structure change of indian renewable energy production is complicated and the long term impact of energy policies on renewable production is contradictory at the two breakpoints russian renewable policies are not working reducing renewable energy consumption growth in the long term empirical analysis suggests policy implications that china should mandate the promotion of renewable energy develop biomass energy on the base of comparative advantage and enhance renewable energy industry chain integration

renewable energy certificate markets in india a review abstract in india the national action policy on climate change napcc 1 has set a target of 15 of electricity via renewable energy sources by 2020 to reach these ambitious targets in march 2011 the government of india launched the renewable energy certificates rec a market based mechanism to drive renewable energy development and spur further investments however a look into the actual performance of rec market trading during the first year of operation shows that though volume of trading steadily increased the number of accredited certificates issued was less than 2 5 of the technical rec demand potential indicating that the full potential of the rec markets was far from being realized we critically examine the design and implementation of the rec market in india as well as its effectiveness in meeting the desired objectives in the context of international best practices our analysis of rec market best practices reveals that though forward markets banking and price bounds are recommended for stable markets best of class methods for determining the optimal length of banking the level of floor and forbearance prices and the values of credit vintage multipliers are not fully established we then establish that the main issues with the indian rec markets appear to be demand uncertainty resulting from lack of long term targets absence of clarity on compliance and near absence of long term price signals to investors finally we present an analysis of other important features of the indian rec market in the context of well functioning rec markets such as credit multipliers set asides vintage multipliers and voluntary markets 2013 elsevier ltd

currency crises capital account liberalization and selection bias are countries with unregulated capital flows more vulnerable to currency crises efforts to answer this question properly must control for self selection bias since countries with liberalized capital accounts may also have more sound economic policies and institutions that make them less likely to experience crises we employ a matching and propensity score methodology to address this issue in a panel analysis of developing countries our results suggest that after controlling for sample selection bias countries with liberalized capital accounts experience a lower likelihood of currency crises that is when two countries have the same likelihood of allowing free movement of capital based on historical evidence and a very similar set of economic and political characteristics and one country imposes controls and the other does not the country without controls has a lower likelihood of experiencing a currency crisis this result is at odds with the conventional wisdom and suggests that the benefits of capital market liberalization for external stability are substantial

solar energy markets economics and policies abstract solar energy has experienced phenomenal growth in recent years due to both technological improvements resulting in cost reductions and government policies supportive of renewable energy development and utilization this study analyzes the technical economic and policy aspects of solar energy development and deployment while the cost of solar energy has declined rapidly in the recent past it still remains much higher than the cost of conventional energy technologies like other renewable energy technologies solar energy benefits from fiscal and regulatory incentives including tax credits and exemptions feed in tariff preferential interest rates renewable portfolio standards and voluntary green power programs in many countries the emerging carbon credit markets are expected to provide additional incentives to solar energy deployment however the scale of incentives provided by the existing carbon market instruments such as the clean development mechanism of the kyoto protocol is limited despite the huge technical potential the development and large scale deployment of solar energy technologies world wide still has to overcome a number of technical financial regulatory and institutional barriers the continuation of policy supports might be necessary for several decades to maintain and enhance the growth of solar energy in both developed and developing countries

the impact of r d on innovation for wind energy in denmark germany and the united kingdom this paper examines the impact of public research and development r d support on cost reducing innovation for wind turbine farms in denmark germany and the united kingdom uk first we survey the literature in this field the literature indicates that in denmark r d policy has been more successful than in germany or the uk in promoting innovation of wind turbines furthermore such studies point out that subsidy induced capacity expansions were more effective in the uk and denmark in promoting cost reducing innovation than in germany the second part of the paper describes the quantitative analysis of the impact of r d and capacity expansion on innovation this is calculated using the two factor learning curve 2flc model in which investment cost reductions are explained by cumulative capacity and the r d based knowledge stock time series data were collected for the three countries and organized as a panel data set the parameters of the 2flc model were estimated focusing on the homogeneity and heterogeneity of the parameters across countries we arrived at robust estimations of a learning by doing rate of 5 4 and a learning by searching rate of 12 6 the analysis underlines the homogeneity of the learning parameters enhancing the validity of the 2flc formulation

temporary controls on capital inflows abstract during the past decade a number of countries imposed capital controls that had two distinguishing features they were asymmetric in that they were designed principally to discourage capital inflows and they were temporary this paper studies formally the consequences of these policies calibrates their potential effectiveness and assesses their welfare implications in an environment in which the level of capital inflows can be sub optimal in addition motivated by the fact that these types of controls have often been left in place after the dissipation of the shock that lead to the controls being implemented the paper evaluates the welfare cost of procrastination in removing these types of controls

second moments in speculative attack models panel evidence abstract the paper tests two popular asset based models of speculative attacks and in particular their emphasis on the second moments of monetary aggregates analyzing monthly panels of appropriate countries in three regions it finds evidence for the importance of money reserve ratios predicted by both models as well as the variance of the ratio of m2 to reserves

together or apart the relationship between currency and banking crises abstract the purpose of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the links between currency and banking crises panel data probit and bivariate probit models are estimated to a sample of 21 developed and developing countries having monthly observations between the years 1985 and 2010 the findings indicate that banking crises precede currency crises and vice versa currency crises also indirectly influence future banking crises probability through external shocks liberalized financial markets or highly leveraged banking sectors the study also finds evidence of contemporaneous correlation between the two crises the results not only confirm the theoretical links between banking and currency crises but also underline the importance of higher frequency data in analyzing the relationship between various financial crises

issues in price discrimination a comment on and addendum to teaching price discrimination by carroll and coates there is a large variety of treatments of the topic of price discrimination in the most widely used undergraduate principles and intermediate microeconomic textbooks as well as industrial organization texts in a recent southern economic journal article carroll and coates 1999 set out to bring into focus the issues that ought to be discussed and made clear when teaching price discrimination to undergraduates their paper concludes with a list of six points that instructors should follow to spark students interest and create as little confusion as possible when covering the topic while in several ways their article is an improvement over many a textbook discussion i think their contribution can also be improved upon as it contains some misconceptions and mistakes specifically there are two concerns regarding the coverage of price discrimination in general and both of these affect the paper by carroll and coates in particular the first is mostly technical but has led to widespread misconceptions about the relationship between the price elasticity of demand and third degree price discrimination the other is mainly pedagogical and concerns what can or should actually be taken away from the classroom after a discussion of price discrimination especially regarding implications of price discrimination on economic efficiency

currency crises are they all the same abstract the plethora of currency crises around the world has fueled many theories on the causes of speculative attacks the first generation models focus on fiscal problems while the second generation models emphasize countercyclical policies and self fulfilling crises in the 1990s models pinpoint to financial excesses with the crisis of argentina in 2001 models of sovereign default have become popular again while the theoretical literature has emphasized variety the empirical literature has supported the one size fits all models this paper contributes to the empirical literature by assessing whether the crises of the last 30 years are of different varieties

fiscal policy and the duration of financial crises financial systems across the world have all come under pressure due to the on going financial crisis one of the most often asked questions during a collapse is how long and how deep will the decline be as well as what policy initiatives can be employed to shorten the recession this study estimates a model of the duration of financial crises in an attempt to identify whether fiscal policy can reduce the time to recovery the results suggest that fiscal shocks which could provoke an overreaction on the part of markets tend to lengthen crisis duration significant nonlinear effects of government spending are also reported in relation to trade openness and financial openness

two sided markets a progress report the paper provides a road map to the burgeoning literature on two sided markets and presents new results it identifies two sided markets with markets in which the structure and not only the level of prices charged by platforms matters the failure of the coase theorem is necessary but not sufficient for two sidedness the paper builds a model integrating usage and membership externalities that unifies two hitherto disparate strands of the literature emphasizing either form of externality and obtains new results on the mix of membership and usage charges when price setting or bargaining determine payments between end users

interactions of a tradable green certificate market with a tradable permits market abstract the reduction of greenhouse gas ghg emissions is an important goal in the energy and environmental policies of the european union eu and its member states according to a recent directive proposal from the eu commission the inclusion of renewable technologies is one of the important ways to achieve this emission reduction more policy instruments are on hand to pursue this objective frequently discussed currently is the establishing of a market for tradable permits for co2 emissions to achieve emission reductions in the power industry in parallel with this is the introduction of a green certificate market to promote the development of renewables if these two instruments are brought into play at the same time two separate markets with two individual targets will co exist in a number of countries with a focus on the green certificate market this paper discusses how these two markets may interact with each other in international trade three different cases are analysed 1 a green certificate market without any tradable permits scheme 2 a green certificate market in combination with a tradable permits scheme based on grandfathering and finally 3 a green certificate market in combination with a tradable permits bidding scheme emphasis is placed on analysing the pricing mechanisms in international trade at the green certificate and tradable permits market in relation to the value of the reductions in ghg emissions actually achieved the influence of the permits scheme on the spot market price of electricity is shown and the benefits of trading green certificates compared to a domestic implementation of renewable technologies are discussed the main conclusion is that only if a green certificate market is combined with a tradable permit scheme based on a bidding procedure will trade in certificates be equivalent to the domestic development of renewables using the bidding system no other country will have to pay for co2 reductions in the home country of the renewable development as would otherwise be the case if a tradable permit system based on grandfathering were introduced or even worse if no tradable permits were introduced at all finally it must be stated that even if the green certificate market were introduced alongside with a tradable permit bidding system there still would be no incentives for international certificate trade on account of the need for ghg reductions in the version of the green certificate market discussed in this paper no ghg credits are attached to certificates this means that the development of renewables will add to ghg reductions only in those countries where the plants are established no matter what kind of tradable permit scheme is adopted

cost effectiveness of renewable electricity policies we analyze policies to promote renewable sources of electricity a portfolio standard rps raises electricity prices and primarily reduces gas fired generation a knee of the cost curve exists between 15 and 20 goals for 2020 in our central case and higher natural gas prices lower the cost of greater reliance on renewables a renewable energy production tax credit lowers electricity price at the expense of taxpayers which limits its effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions and it is less cost effective at increasing renewables than a portfolio standard neither policy is as cost effective as a cap and trade policy for achieving carbon emission reductions

two sided network effects a theory of information product design how can firms profitably give away free products this paper provides a novel answer and articulates trade offs in a space of information product design we introduce a formal model of two sided network externalities based in textbook economics a mix of katz and shapiro network effects price discrimination and product differentiation externality based complements however exploit a different mechanism than either tying or lock in even as they help to explain many recent strategies such as those of firms selling operating systems internet browsers games music and video the model presented here argues for three simple but useful results first even in the absence of competition a firm can rationally invest in a product it intends to give away into perpetuity second we identify distinct markets for content providers and end consumers and show that either can be a candidate for a free good third product coupling across markets can increase consumer welfare even as it increases firm profits the model also generates testable hypotheses on the size and direction of network effects while offering insights to regulators seeking to apply antitrust law to network markets

when outcomes are the reflection of the analysis criteria a review of the tradable green certificate assessments abstract the tradable green certificates tgc framework is a prevalent policy support scheme enacted to stimulate investments in electricity from renewable energy sources res e in several countries including sweden and norway the tgc framework is currently under reevaluation in this process academic literature plays a crucial role in reflecting the outcomes of this policy framework the outcomes however are often limited by the analysis criteria which reflect what has been accounted for or disregarded when assessing the performance of the tgc framework the analysis criteria also stress what is considered as a successful outcome given the importance of such criteria this paper presents an extensive and systemic literature review of academic publications assessing the performance of the tgc framework the findings are to provide an overview of the publications analysis criteria and outline their outcomes we also provide descriptive statistics for the publications and examine the average citation record of the publications that use various analysis criteria in order to explore their relative impact on later studies these findings can help policymakers put the assessments into perspective when reevaluating a country s tgc system they also suggest several intriguing directions for future studies in this field

introduction of renewable energy certificate in the indian scenario abstract generation deficit in india is in the range of 9 and the scenario is expected to get grimmer in the context of high growth rate of the country with peak power shortage as high as 15 2 source annual report fy08 mop the nation needs to harness all forms of generation including renewables which currently has a meager share of 8 of the total generation in the country at present shooting price of crude oil reaching up to 135 may 2008 per barrel along with increasing awareness and concerns about environment the stage seems to be set for an increased mix of renewable energy re into the overall energy requirement in the country keeping the concern for environment and energy security for the country in mind government of india has been putting emphasis on promotion of renewable energy sources central and state government policies have always been instrumental in the propagation of capacity additions in renewable energy power one of the main aims of these policies has been on increasing the private sector participation in this sector in the pre reform period the state governments took policy decisions regarding financial incentives buy back tariff and other measures targeting investment in renewable energy however the state electricity regulatory commissions sercs are now responsible for many of these tasks sercs have come up with a host of initiatives inline with their functions laid down in the electricity act 2003 to increase the share of renewable energy inside their respective states despite the efforts of sercs large potential of renewable energy generation remains untapped there is lack of clarity on how to promote renewable energy generation inside states which are not having significant renewable energy generation potential this paper explores the way in which sercs can introduce measures to further promote renewable energy generation inside the country we discuss in detail the framework to promote renewable energy through a framework which puts into place renewable purchase obligation rpo mechanism the framework includes setting of rpo targets provisions for a surcharge levied upon non compliance of rpo targets and also a mechanism to meet rpo through trading of certificates

the international monetary fund in a time of crisis a review of stanley fischer s imf essays from a time of crisis the international financial system stabilization and development stanley fischer was deputy managing director of the imf from 1994 to 2001 and perhaps more than any other individual he personifies the international rapid response to financial crises in the 1990s this book is a collection of essays written during his tenure at the imf taken together the essays represent the strongest and most logical defense of imf initiatives in the 1990s in print my review essay comprises six parts in parts 2 through 4 i provide an overview of fischer s arguments in three central areas of contention stabilization policy the impact of imf programs on poverty and the imf s anticipation of and response to international financial crisis i then compare fischer s arguments to those raised by the imf s critics during that period the controversial issues of these parts can be resolved only through empirical investigation but on the issues of greatest importance from the financial crises of the 1990s both fischer and the imf s critics make logically consistent arguments with little empirical support in part 5 i review the recent empirical literature to illuminate what evidence has been found in support of or counter to the assertions of fischer and the imf s critics part 6 provides conclusions and suggestions for follow on empirical research

exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks exchange market mayhem the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks this paper evaluates the causes and consequences of episodes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets using data from 1959 through 1993 for twenty oecd countries we consider the antecedents and aftermath of devaluations and revaluations flotations fixings and speculative attacks which may not be successful we find that realignments of fixed exchange rates are alike devaluations are preceded by political instability budget and current account deficits and fast growth of money and prices revaluations are mirror images of devaluations speculative attacks resemble devaluations but money growth and inflation are more endemic and there is no last minute attempt to tighten monetary policy in contrast few consistent correlations link regime transitions like flotations or fixings to macroeconomic or political variables transitions between exchange rate regimes are largely idiosyncratic and are neither consistently provoked ex ante by systematic imbalances nor typically justified ex post by subsequent changes in policy we conclude that there are no clear early warning signals of many speculative attacks and no easy solutions for policy makers barry eichengreen andrew k rose and charles wyplosz

price volatility and banking in green certificate markets there is concern that prices in a market for green certificates gcs primarily based on volatile wind power will fluctuate excessively leading to corresponding volatility of electricity prices applying a rational expectations simulation model of competitive storage and speculation of gcs the paper shows that the introduction of banking of gcs may reduce price volatility considerably and lead to increased social surplus banking lowers average prices and is therefore not necessarily to the benefit of green producers proposed price bounds on gc prices will reduce the importance of banking and even of the gc system itself

the impact of financial crises and tolerance for uncertainty abstract financial crises can have severe negative effects on investment one reason for this is that financial crises increase uncertainty increasing the real option value of delaying investment in this paper we show that the negative effect of crises on investment differs significantly across countries in countries with low tolerance for uncertainty the negative effect is strong the negative effect is absent in countries that are more tolerant of uncertainty these findings are similar across different types of financial crisis they vary as predicted across type of investor asset and industry and they are not driven by uncertainty averse countries adopting more rigid institutions

renewable electricity production costs a framework to assist policy makers decisions on price support abstract despite recent progress the production costs for renewable electricity remain above those for conventional power expectations of continuous reductions in production costs typically underpin governments policies for financial support they often draw on the technology focused versions of the experience curve model this paper discusses how national contextual factors also have a strong influence on production costs such as geographic infrastructural institutional and resource factors as technologies mature and as they reach significant levels of diffusion nationally sustained increases in production costs might be recorded due to these nationally contextual factors poorly accounted for in policy making decisions for price support the paper suggests an analytical framework for a more comprehensive understanding of production costs based on this it recommends that the evolution of specific cost levels and factors be monitored to locate sources of changes the paper also suggests policy instruments that governments may use to facilitate cost decreases whenever possible the application of the framework is illustrated for the diffusion of wind power in spain during the past three decades

are currency crises predictable abstract this paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises the results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining the crises however although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different exchange rate misalignment measures into consideration expectations fail to anticipate currency crises

statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises abstract we use extreme value theory to identify periods of currency crisis for a broad cross section of asian european and latin american countries we argue that our methodology improves upon the more conventional methodology for defining currency crises because fewer parametric assumptions need to be satisfied we compare the incidence of currency crises using the conventional method with the incidence obtained using our method we conclude that identifying currency crises using extreme value theory is a good alternative to the conventional method

platform pricing redux platforms such as airbnb amazon apple ios ebay microsoft windows and uber are ubiquitous the two sided nature of platform markets however requires a reconsideration of the conditions for profit maximization and understanding of how platforms operate profit maximization in two sided markets is characterized as an intuitive extension of the inverse elasticity pricing rule lerner index this is further expressed in terms of the participants primitives users reservation values and the platform s marginal cost differences between one and two sided markets are demonstrated and discussed

did established early warning signals predict the 2008 crises abstract over the past 60 years a voluminous literature has painstakingly developed crises theories and their associated early warning signals the hallmark of this literature is the consistency with which selected early warning signals such as the level of reserves and exchange rate appreciations are presumed to predict different types of crises across countries and time the diversity of crises theories that motivate early warning signals presents however a challenge to empirical implementations given that the true model of early warning signals is unknown omitted variable bias contaminates estimates and confidence levels when the uncertainty surrounding a particular theory has been ignored after addressing model uncertainty in early warning signal regressions using an extended version of frankel and saravelos 2012 j int econ 87 216 231 dataset we do not find a single early warning signal that alerts to all dimensions of the 2008 crisis instead distinct sets of early warning signals identify different dimensions of the crisis banking balance of payments exchange rate pressure and recession

developing an early warning system to predict currency crises abstract the purpose of this paper is to develop an early warning system to predict currency crises in this study a data set covering the period of january 1992 december 2011 of turkish economy is used and an early warning system is developed with artificial neural networks ann decision trees and logistic regression models financial pressure index fpi is an aggregated value composed of the percentage changes in dollar exchange rate gross foreign exchange reserves of the central bank and overnight interest rate in this study fpi is the dependent variable and thirty two macroeconomic indicators are the independent variables three models which are tested in turkish crisis cases have given clear signals that predicted the 1994 and 2001 crises 12 months earlier considering all three prediction model results turkey s economy is not expected to have a currency crisis ceteris paribus until the end of 2012 this study presents uniqueness in that decision support model developed in this study uses basic macroeconomic indicators to predict crises up to a year before they actually happened with an accuracy rate of approximately 95 it also ranks the leading factors of currency crisis with regard to their importance in predicting the crisis

are tradable green certificates a cost efficient policy driving technical change or a rent generating machine lessons from sweden 2003 2008 in the european policy debate tradable green certificates tgc have been suggested to be a superior regulatory framework for promoting the diffusion of renewable electricity technologies the purpose of this paper is to assess the performance of the swedish tgc system contributing to the european debate on the suitability of different types of frameworks the expectations of the tgc system were that it would a be effective in terms of increasing the supply of green electricity b do this in a cost effective manner from both a social and a consumer perspective c generate an equitable distribution of costs and benefits and d drive technical change so far it has performed adequately in terms of effectiveness and social cost effectiveness however consumer costs have been substantially higher than expected very large rents are generated and at best it contributes marginally to technical change thus a tgc framework should be selected if the overriding concern is to minimize short term social costs of reaching a certain goal with a high degree of predictability however it cannot be expected to also drive technical change keep consumer costs down and be equitable such trade offs need to be revealed and not obscured by analysts

renewable energy costs potentials barriers conceptual issues renewable energy can become the major energy supply option in low carbon energy economies disruptive transformations in all energy systems are necessary for tapping widely available renewable energy resources organizing the energy transition from non sustainable to renewable energy is often described as the major challenge of the first half of the 21st century technological innovation the economy costs and prices and policies have to be aligned to achieve full renewable energy potentials and barriers impeding that growth need to be removed these issues are also covered by ipcc s special report on renewable energy and climate change to be completed in 2010 this article focuses on the interrelations among the drivers it clarifies definitions of costs and prices and of barriers after reviewing how the third and fourth assessment reports of ipcc cover mitigation potentials and commenting on definitions of renewable energy potentials in the literature we propose a consistent set of potentials of renewable energy supplies

rating the rating agencies anticipating currency crises or debt crises abstract we revisit the question whether sovereign ratings predict financial crises in line with previous studies we find that ratings do not predict currency crises and are instead downgraded ex post however the likelihood of currency crisis and the implied probability of sovereign default are not closely linked in emerging markets post 1994 when debt crises are defined as sovereign distress when spreads are higher than 1000 basis points or 10 percentage points we find that access to international capital markets is reduced by half in addition although sovereign distress events last for typically 5 2 consecutive months they can persist for longer periods up to nine quarters finally lagged ratings and ratings changes including negative outlooks and credit watches are useful in anticipating sovereign distress

capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies abstract a large literature on the appropriate sequencing of financial liberalization suggests that removing capital controls prematurely may contribute to currency instability this paper investigates whether legal restrictions on international capital flows are associated with greater currency stability we employ a comprehensive panel data set of 69 developing economies over the 1975 1997 period identifying 160 currency crises we control for macroeconomic political and institutional characteristics that influence the probability of a currency crisis employ alternative measures of restrictions on international payments and account for possible joint causality between the likelihood of a currency attack and the imposition of capital controls we find evidence that restrictions on capital flows do not effectively insulate economies from currency problems rather countries with less restrictive capital controls and more liberalized regimes appear to be less prone to speculative attacks