international labor and capital flows complements or substitutes in a global context foreign direct investment fdi and migration substitute one another in the matching process between workers and firms yet migrants provide information about future investment opportunities in their country of origin evidence from u s data is consistent with contemporaneous substitutability and dynamic complementarity between migration and fdi

labor migration and economic growth in east and southeast asia east and southeast asia face major demographic changes over the next few decades as many countries labor forces will start to decline while others will experience higher labor force growth as populations and participation rates increase a well managed labor migration strategy presents itself as a mechanism for ameliorating the impending labor shortages in some east asia pacific countries while providing an opportunity for other countries with excess labor to provide migrant workers that will contribute to the development of the home country through greater remittance flows although migration would be unable to offset the economic impacts of the declining labor forces in the countries with shrinking populations a more flexible migration policy allowing migrants to respond to the major demographic changes occurring in asia over the next 50 years would be beneficial to most economies in the region in terms of real incomes and real gross domestic product over the 2007 2050 period such a policy could deeply affect the net migration position of a country countries that were net recipients under current migration policies might become net senders under the more liberal policy regime

secondary forests as temporary carbon sinks the economic impact of accounting methods on reforestation projects in the tropics abstract tropical forestry is often not competitive with agricultural land uses such as pasture for cattle ranching additional revenues from carbon sequestration generated by the clean development mechanism cdm of the kyoto protocol can change this situation in three different zones of north western ecuador minimum compensation payments for carbon sequestration were determined which would make reforestation a feasible land use alternative based on our findings that these minimum prices depend on the net benefit of the respective land use alternatives and on the accounting regimes for cdm sink projects we applied the accounting rules for temporary and long term certified emission reductions cer to two reforestation projects forest plantation and natural regrowth of secondary forest a comparison of these alternatives showed that secondary forest is an attractive alternative under both accounting regimes because of its low establishment costs and relative early timber revenues after identifying the zone most suitable for carbon sink projects we calculated net benefits of land use changes in the event that certain prices for emission reductions were actually paid we found that secondary forest becomes economically attractive if the price of permanent credits is above 4 5 tco 2 whereas forest plantations require permanent cer prices of 7 0 tco 2 in both cases the results are within the price margins forecasted by various institutions for the first commitment period of the kyoto protocol the presented methodology is meant to support the decision making process on the supply side of a future cer market opportunity costs of land use changes have to be analyzed carefully before deciding in favor of long binding forestry projects assigning temporary credits to naturally regrown secondary forests could although excluded from cdm during the first commitment period combine the advantages of a flexible accounting regime with the positive economic and ecological effects of this competitive land use

firm specific impacts of co2 prices on the stock market value of the spanish power industry abstract european union carbon emissions allowances eua price fluctuations can affect electricity companies stock market values as these oscillations may change firms profitability and thus investors decisions this outcome can differ not only contingent on the eu ets phase but also on firms generation mix moreover stock markets may react differently to eua increases in comparison to decreases thus asymmetrically by using daily data from january 2008 to july 2014 this article analyses long run equilibrium relations and short run interactions between the aggregated electricity industry stock market returns and eua price changes moreover we test if the relationship between eua price variations and electricity stock returns is asymmetric and if the carbon price effect and the asymmetry are power firm specific adding to earlier studies we initially provide an inspection of the individual impact of eu ets phase ii and on going phase iii followed by a comparative analysis between power firms which core activity relies on renewable energy sources and those whose sources are fundamentally non renewable ones a statistically significant positive long run impact of eu ets on the aggregated power sector stock market return is found concerning phase ii and works asymmetrically moreover evidence is provided demonstrating that asymmetry and eua effects are power firm specific

analyzing the kyoto protocol under the marrakesh accords economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness abstract this article evaluates the environmental effectiveness and economic implications of the kyoto protocol kp after the bonn agreement and the marrakesh accords we will break it down into several components that correspond with major steps in the international process pre cop 6 version of the kp with unrestricted international emissions trading but without sinks withdrawal of the usa and decisions on sinks in bonn and marrakesh the marrakesh accords bring annex i emissions in 2010 without the usa at 0 5 under base year levels this corresponds to nearly 2 above the 1990 levels the us withdrawal has by far the greatest impact in reducing the environmental effectiveness of the kp whereas the impact of the decision on sinks is comparatively small the us withdrawal also substantially reduces the permit demand and permit prices will drop dramatically hot air becomes increasingly dominant and may threaten the viability of the kyoto mechanisms km especially in lower baseline business as usual bau scenarios therefore banking of hot air is of absolute importance to improve the environmental effectiveness of the protocol at moderately higher costs while enhancing the development of a viable emission trading market a strategy of curtailing and banking permit supply is also in the interest of the dominant seller russia

do migrants improve governance at home evidence from a voting experiment can international migration promote better institutions at home by raising the demand for political accountability a behavioral measure of the population s desire for better governance was designed to examine this question a postcard was distributed to households promising that if enough postcards were mailed back results from a survey module on perceived corruption would be published in the national media data from a tailored household survey were used to examine the determinants of this behavioral measure of demand for political accountability undertaking the costly action of mailing the postcard and to isolate the positive effect of international emigration using locality level variation the estimated effects are robust to the use of instrumental variables including past migration and macro shocks in the destination countries the estimated effects can be attributed mainly to migrants who immigrated to countries with better governance especially migrants who return home

effects of carbon taxes in an economy with prior tax distortions an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis abstract this paper analyzes the costs of carbon taxes in a model that recognizes interactions between this tax and pre existing taxes first we examine the extent to which costs of a u s carbon tax are reduced when its revenues finance cuts in income taxes such use of revenues significantly reduces but does not eliminate the overall policy costs the positive overall costs reflect the carbon tax s focus on intermediate inputs and its relatively narrow base in comparison with income taxes we also examine the sensitivity of the carbon tax s costs to the level of pre existing taxes for any given use of revenues welfare costs rise significantly with pre existing tax rates indicating that models disregarding pre existing taxes may substantially understate the costs of new environmental tax initiatives

optimal abatement technology adoption based upon learning by doing with spillover effect abstract we specify a general model of the dynamic abatement technology adoption process and show how the accumulated experience among them can alter the adoption timing learning by doing lbd effect is considered to describe the reduction of the costly price to the adoption moreover spillovers effect which reflects how accumulated experience can be shared among different technologies is integrated into the learning process to ensure the specification convincing some reasonable assumptions are considered such as one abatement technology must conduct its own experience in order to realize the spillover besides to investigate how the abatement process is influenced by the technology allocation under the spillovers effect an endogenous emission path is considered to necessitate a meaningful optimization problem finally apart from obtaining some basic properties of the model we implement an empirical study to verify the effectiveness of the model data from the iron industry in china is used to specify the process which can highlight the spillovers effect among different technologies from a sector angle in the results we find that intrinsic mechanism in the model results in the interplay among abatement coefficient spillover factor and the growing rate of the emission etc collaborative relationships between variables are discussed as well

toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship accepting a fixed trade off between environmental regulation and competitiveness unnecessarily raises costs and slows down environmental progress studies finding high environmental compliance costs have traditionally focused on static cost impacts ignoring any offsetting productivity benefits from innovation they typically overestimated compliance costs neglected innovation offsets and disregarded the affected industry s initial competitiveness rather than simply adding to cost properly crafted environmental standards can trigger innovation offsets allowing companies to improve their resource productivity shifting the debate from pollution control to pollution prevention was a step forward it is now necessary to make the next step and focus on resource productivity

international migration transfers of norms and home country fertility this paper examines the relationship between international migration and source country fertility the impact of international migration on source country fertility may have a number of causes including a transfer of destination countries fertility norms and an incentive to acquire more education it provides provide a rigorous test of the diffusion on of fertility norms using original and detailed data on migration the results provide evidence of a significant transfer of fertility norms from migrants to their country of origin a one percent decrease in the fertility norm to which migrants are exposed reduces home country fertility by about 0 3 percent for origin countries

climate policies for road transport revisited ii closing the policy gap with cap and trade current policies in the road transport sector fail to deliver consistent and efficient incentives for greenhouse gas abatement see companion article by creutzig et al in press market based instruments such as cap and trade systems close this policy gap and complement traditional policies that are required where specific market failures arise even in presence of strong existing non market policies cap and trade delivers additional abatement and efficiency by incentivizing demand side abatement options this paper analyzes generic design options and economic impacts of including the european road transport sector into the eu ets suitable points of regulation are up and midstream in the fuel chain to ensure effectiveness cover all emissions and avoid double counting efficiency incentivize all abatement options and low transaction costs based on year 2020 marginal abatement cost curves from different models and current eu climate policy objectives we show that in contrast to conventional wisdom road transport inclusion would not change the eu ets allowance price hence industrial carbon leakage induced by adding road transport to the eu ets may be less important than previously estimated

pollution taxes and revenue recycling abstract discussions of environmental policy and the tax system have emphasized the value of pollution tax revenues which can be used to reduce other tax distortions in the economy however by raising private marginal production costs environmental taxes also tend to reduce gdp and exacerbate the welfare costs of conventional taxes for environmental taxes in consumption goods industries the net welfare change from these two effects is negative unless this good is a relatively weak substitute for leisure an estimate for the optimal pollution tax with full revenue recycling is 63 to 78 of marginal environmental damages

democracy and foreign education despite the large amount of private and public resources spent on foreign edu cation there is no systematic evidence that foreign educated individuals foster democracy in their home countries using a unique panel dataset on foreign stu dents starting in the 1950s i show that foreign educated individuals promote democracy in their home country but only if the foreign education is acquired in democratic countries the results are robust to several estimation techniques to different definitions of democracy and to the inclusion of a variety of control variables including democracy in trading partners neighboring countries level of income and level and stock of education jel d72 121 015 do foreign educated individuals play a role in fostering democracy in their home countries despite the large amount of resources spent on financing foreign education there is no systematic study on the effects of foreign education on democracy this paper fills this gap using a dataset on foreign students that includes almost all host and sending countries and spans over 50 years numerous policy initiatives and large investment in the united states are based on the notion that foreign educated students promote democracy in their countries of origin through the fulbright program the us government has financed more than 158 000 foreigners studying in the united states 1 the us government not only finances the education of foreign students but also annually issues more than 250 000 nonimmigrant visas for foreign students more than five million individuals have received visas to study in the united states since 1971 2 us efforts to educate foreign students have produced impressive results 46 current and 165 former heads of governments are products of us higher education foreign leaders educated in the united

marginal abatement costs of co2 emission reductions geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings an assessment using the poles model abstract the kyoto protocol envisage the setting up of flexibility mechanisms allowing annex b countries to fulfil their commitments to reducing greenhouse gases with respect for the principle of economic efficiency the current negotiations relate in particular to the possibility of setting up a system of tradable emissions permits for annex b countries and also of introducing ceilings to trade this paper analyses the stakes and economic potential of adopting this instrument both for those countries that made commitments in kyoto and for developing countries it is based on a formal approach that allows for a consistent framework of analysis the emission permit market is in fact simulated on the basis of a reference scenario and of marginal abatement cost curves and estimated by the poles model after analysing these marginal abatement cost curves and comparing them with those produced by other models we explore two different configurations for a competitive market a market limited to the annex b countries and a world market the results produced by the model show that widening the market to include developing countries is more effective than the annex b market solution it reduces the cost of implementing kyoto for oecd countries and at the same time allows the countries of the south to benefit from selling the permits this research also shows that introducing restrictions on exchanges for annex b countries could have a counter productive redistribution effect with the ethical argument that underlies that particular measure

review of taiwan s climate policy after copenhagen abstract the copenhagen accord in 2009 initiated new opportunities for international cooperation in reducing greenhouse gas ghg emissions the purpose of this study was to review taiwan s current climate policy and in response to the copenhagen accord to deliberate this policy in the light of new strategic thinking the study proposes a two stage approach with a dividing line in 2020 in the first stage from now until 2020 strategy should be based on cost constraints with a suggested reduction cost below 60 t co 2 and implementation of domestic ghg emissions trading scheme and reduction strategies in the second stage from 2020 and beyond action by taiwan should accord with international cooperative actions to link its domestic emissions trading scheme with the international carbon market

income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants abstract two prominent features of international labor movements are that the more educated are more likely to emigrate positive selection and more educated migrants are more likely to settle in destination countries with high rewards to skill positive sorting using data on emigrant stocks by schooling level and source country in oecd destinations we find that a simple model of income maximization can account for both phenomena results on selection show that migrants for a source destination pair are more educated relative to non migrants the larger is the absolute skill related difference in earnings between the destination country and the source results on sorting indicate that the relative stock of more educated migrants in a destination is increasing in the absolute earnings difference between high and low skilled workers we use our framework to compare alternative specifications of international migration estimate the magnitude of migration costs by source destination pair and assess the contribution of wage differences to how migrants sort themselves across destination countries

emission path planning based on dynamic abatement cost curve abstract global climate change is one of the most serious environmental problems that has attracted an unprecedented global attention the scientific community has recognized that human activity is mostly responsible for global climate warming therefore states participating in the united nations framework convention on climate change unfccc have initiated a series of negotiations on how to develop their own emission reduction targets however the realization of these targets is at the expense of economic development to a great extent therefore an abatement plan is necessary to decide how and when to implement emission reduction targets a marginal abatement cost curve macc often used as an important quantitative tool to estimate abatement burden or evaluate abatement performance should be considered carefully in this paper we enrich the traditional macc by introducing the concept of an immediate unit marginal abatement cost to describe its intrinsic incremental abatement difficulty this cost is proved to be agreed with the actual situation in many ways and is therefore very suitable for practical use two factor learning curve are considered in the model which can go some way in improving the performance of the revised macc using a parameterization method the original problem can be converted into a tractable nonlinear programming problem we use an algorithm to search for the approximate global optimal solution the effectiveness and the efficiency of the algorithm are discussed respectively in the results we find that the abatement path distinguishes largely under different abatement targets some plausible reasons and policy advices are given

a two level dynamic game of carbon emission trading between russia china and annex b countries this paper proposes a computable dynamic game model of the strategic competition between russia and developing countries dcs mainly represented by china on the international market of emission permits created by the kyoto protocol the model uses a formulation of i a demand function for permits from annex b countries and ii marginal abatement costs mac in russia and china provided by two detailed models gemini e3 is a computable general equilibrium model that provides the data to estimate annex b demand for permits and macs in russia poles is a partial equilibrium model that is used to obtain mac curves for china the competitive scenario is compared with a monopoly situation where only russia is allowed to play strategically the impact of allowing dcs to intervene on the international emission trading market is thus assessed

capital market response to emission rights returns evidence from the european power sector prior studies on the distributional effects of the european union s emission trading scheme eu ets have so far only relied on supply and demand data empirical evidence from capital markets has been missing we address this gap and measure the ets s economic consequences using the expectations of investors towards the regulatory impact on firm value employing a multifactor model we show that returns on common stock of the largest affected industry power generation are positively correlated with rising prices for emission rights this implies that the market predicts that firms are not only able to pass on their share of the regulatory burden to customers but even achieve windfall profits by overcompensating for the costs

eu emission allowances and the stock market evidence from the electricity industry this paper constitutes to our best knowledge the first econometric analysis on stock market effects of the eu emission trading scheme eu ets our results suggest that eu emission allowance eua price developments matter to the stock performance of electricity firms eua price changes and stock returns of the most important european electricity corporations are shown to be positively related this effect does not work asymmetrically so that stock markets do not seem to react differently to eua appreciations in comparison to depreciations the carbon market effect is shown to be both time and country specific it is particularly strong for the period of eua market shock in early 2006 and differs with respect to the countries where the electricity corporations analysed are headquartered stock market reactions to eua volatility could not be shown

optimal environmental taxation in the presence of other taxes general equilibrium analyses this paper examines the optimal setting of environmental taxes in economies where other distortionary taxes are present we employ analytical and numerical models to explore the degree to which in a second best economy optimal environmental tax rates differ from the rates implied by the pigovian principle according to which the optimal tax rate equals the marginal environmental damages both models indicate contrary to what several analysts have suggested that the optimal tax rate on emissions of a given pollutant is generally less than the rate supported by the pigovian principle moreover the optimal rate is lower the larger are the distortions posed by ordinary taxes numerical results indicate that previous studies may have seriously overstated the size of the optimal carbon tax by disregarding pre existing taxes this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

five questions on international migration and development the movement of people in search of better economic conditions and a more secure environment is as old as human history such movements not only profoundly affect the lives of the migrants but also lead to significant economic and social transformations in migrants countries of origin and destination in recent years a significant increase in the growth of international migration and remittance flows and in awareness of their development impact has led to a resurgence of interest by academics policymakers and analysts in what has been referred to as the third leg of globalization the other two being international trade and international capital flows this symposium issue gathers some of the papers presented at the second international migration and development conference held at the world bank on september 10 11 2009 the five articles in this symposium issue fall into two groups

what explains the price of remittances an examination across 119 country corridors remittances are a substantial source of external financing for developing countries that influence many aspects of their development though research has shown that remittances are both expensive and price sensitive little is known about what explains their price newly gathered data across 119 country pairs or corridors are used to explore the factors associated with the price of remittances corridors with larger numbers of migrants and more competition among providers are found to exhibit lower prices for remittances when average prices across all types of remittance service providers are considered corridors with lower barriers to access banking services and broader regulation of remittance service providers also have lower prices remittance prices are higher in richer corridors and in corridors with greater bank participation in the remittance market few significant differences emerge when results are compared across banks and separately across money transfer operators however estimations for western union a leading player in the remittances business suggest that its prices are less sensitive to competition

a quantitative minimax regret approach to climate change does discounting still matter abstract using cost benefit analysis to determine an optimal climate mitigation target is criticised especially because i it fails to sufficiently take into account low probability high impact events and ii results strongly depend on the discount rate used one of the alternative suggestions to inform policymakers about the right mitigation target that does take the risks associated with low probability high impact events explicitly into account is the minimax regret criterion we apply the minimax regret criterion quantitatively using an integrated assessment model with extreme values for climate sensitivity damage estimates and mitigation costs the goal is to analyse whether such a method leads to different results compared to standard cost benefit analysis and whether the results are still sensitive to the discount rate used we find that the minimax regret approach leads to more stringent and robust climate targets for relatively low discount rates and if both a high climate sensitivity and high damage estimates are assumed if one of these assumptions does not hold the difference between the minimax regret approach and standard cost benefit analysis is much smaller therefore we conclude that the discount rate used can still be of vital importance even when applying a minimax regret approach

transitional restricted linkage between emissions trading schemes linkages between emissions trading systems are deemed an important element of the future climate policy landscape they are however difficult to agree and remain few and far between temporary restrictions on permit trading have potential to facilitate and gradually approach unrestricted full linkage we compare the relative merits of several link restrictions in this respect namely quantitative transfer limits border taxes on transfers exchange and discount rates and unilateral linkage to this end we develop a simple model to have a unifying framework which in conjunction with lessons we draw from real world experiences serves as a basis for a broader policy oriented discussion while quantitative restrictions seem to be the natural route to full linkage they can lead to uncertain distributional effects and weaken price signals these aspects are mitigated under a border permit tax but this policy seems harder to implement exchange rates have potential to adjust for programmes stringencies and raise ambition over time but can be challenging to select as experience corroborates unilateral linkage can be a convenient approach

transaction costs institutional rigidities and the size of the clean development mechanism transaction costs and institutional rigidities will reduce the attractiveness of the kyoto protocol flexibility mechanisms compared to domestic greenhouse gas abatement options the clean development mechanism cdm in particular is likely to entail considerable costs of baseline development project registration verification and certification the activities implemented jointly pilot phase and the prototype carbon fund programme give indications about these costs there is evidence that projects with high implementation costs have high transaction costs as well moreover cdm projects have to be approved by host country institutions and so far only a small share of host countries has been able to set up these institutions several of the larger host countries intend to only approve projects if the market price is above a certain threshold some governments will also levy fees to finance costs of approval bodies we assess these issues using a quantitative model of the kyoto protocol permit market we conclude that while changes in demand from annex b countries remain the crucial factor the size of the cdm will depend to a significant degree on transaction costs and institutional barriers in host countries

the costs of the kyoto protocol in the european union we estimate reference co2 emission projections in the european union and quantify the economic impacts of the kyoto commitment on member states we consider the case where each eumember individually meets a co 2 emissions target applying a country wide cap and trade system to meet the target but without trade among countries we use a version of the mit emissions prediction and policy analysis eppa model here disaggregated to separately include 9 european community countries and commercial and household transportation sectors we compare our results with that of four energy economic models that have provided detailed analyses of european climate change policy in the absence of specific additional climate policy measures the eppa reference projections of carbon emissions increase by 14 from 1990 levels the eu wide target under the kyoto protocol to the framework convention on climate change is a reduction in emissions to 8 below 1990 levels eppa emissions projections are similar to other recent modeling results but there are underlying differences in energy and carbon intensities among the projections if eucountries were to individually meet the euallocation of the community wide carbon cap specified in the kyoto protocol we find using eppa that carbon prices vary from 91 in the united kingdom to 385 in denmark welfare costs range from 0 6 to 5 r 2002 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

measuring international skilled migration a new database controlling for age of entry recent data on international migration of skilled workers define skilled migrants by education level without distinguishing whether they acquired their education in the home or the host country this article uses immigrants age of entry as a proxy for where they acquired their education data on age of entry are available from a subset of receiving countries that together represent 77 percent of total skilled immigration to countries of the oecd organization for economic co operation and development using these data and a simple gravity model to estimate the age of entry structure of the remaining 23 percent alternative brain drain measures are proposed that exclude immigrants who arrived before ages 12 18 and 22

a cross country evaluation of environmental performance is there a convergence divergence pattern in technology gaps abstract a balanced panel of 103 countries for the period 1995 2011 is introduced into a metafrontier framework to gain insight into the idiosyncratic performance of countries in two distinct groups developed annex i countries and developing non annex i countries we measure efficiency using a generalized directional distance function model suitable for dealing with anthropogenic emissions the measurement of efficiency and technology gaps takes into account the group specific heterogeneity moreover we examine the convergence divergence hypothesis for the technology gaps defined for each period our findings reveal significant patterns between the groups and among countries

remittances and the brain drain do more skilled migrants remit more in most destination countries immigration policies are tilted more and more in favor of skilled individuals whether this shift hurts economic prospects in sending countries as argued by the traditional brain drain literature is somewhat controversial the most recent literature focuses on the link between skilled outmigration and educational achievements in the home country this article emphasizes a different channel it considers the argument that skilled migrants raise economic welfare at home by sending a relatively larger flow of remittances while skilled migrants typically earn more and so might be expected to remit more they are also likely to spend more time abroad and to reunite with their close family in the host country these second two factors should be associated with a smaller propensity to remit thus the sign of the impact of the brain drain on total remittances is an empirical question a simple model has been developed showing that skilled migrants may indeed have a lower propensity to remit from a given flow of earnings an empirical equation of remittances is estimated as a measure of the brain drain in developing countries using the docquier and marfouk 2004 data set evidence is found that the brain drain is associated with a smaller propensity to remit

remittances and the brain drain revisited the microdata show that more educated migrants remit more two of the most salient trends in migration and development over the last two decades are the large rise in remittances and in the flow of skilled migrants however recent literature based on cross country regressions has claimed that more educated migrants remit less leading to concerns that further increases in skilled migration will impede remittance growth micro data from surveys of immigrants in 11 major destination countries are used to revisit the relationship between education and remitting behavior the data show a mixed pattern between education and the likelihood of remitting and a strong positive relationship between education and amount remitted intensive margin conditional on remitting at all extensive margin combining these intensive and extensive margins yields an overall positive effect of education on the amount remitted for the pooled sample with heterogeneous results across destinations the micro data allow investigation of why the more educated remit more showing that the higher income earned by migrants rather than family characteristics explains much of the higher remittances migration brain drain and education

dealing with surplus emissions in the climate negotiations after copenhagen what are the options for compromise abstract this paper analyses the environmental and financial consequences of various strategies of dealing with surplus emission allowances in the aftermath of the copenhagen accord this topic remains relevant in particular with respect to the russian negotiation position as this country is the largest holder of surplus emissions it is concluded that not addressing the surplus problem is not a feasible negotiation option as the sheer size of the surpluses would jeopardise the environmental integrity of any future agreement cancelling surpluses against russia s will though viable is not desirable as it might well lead to this country opting out of this climate treaty three options for compromise have been selected and analysed here 1 stricter targets for annex i countries 2 strategic reserve for russia 3 institutionalising optimal banking it is concluded that whereas option 1 is environmentally the best in the present political context it is probably less feasible the other two options although environmentally suboptimal seem politically more favourable our analysis suggests that maximal revenues for surplus holding countries arise by releasing only a limited amount of surplus credits to the market the institutionalisation of this effect could be a key lever to a politically feasible agreement on surplus emissions