state dependent pricing and the dynamics of money and output standard macroeconomic models of price stickiness assume that each firm leaves its price unchanged for a fixed amount of time we present an alternative model in which the pricing decision depends on the state of the economy we find a method of aggregating individual price changes that allows a simple characterization of macroeconomic variables the model produces a positive money output correlation and an empirical phillips curve in addition the impact of monetary shocks depends crucially on the current level of output which points to a natural connection between state dependent microeconomics and state dependent macroeconomics i introduction there is a long tradition in macroeconomics of attributing the real effects of nominal demand shocks to nominal price stickiness in this view if there is no change in prices when nominal demand rises then quantities must bear the burden of adjustment hence nominal price rigidity provides the friction needed for nominal demand shocks to be transmitted to the real economy standard models of this transmission mechanism such as fischer 1977 and taylor 1980 are based on the assumption that each firm leaves its price unchanged for a fixed amount of time the main reason for considering such time dependent pricing rules is their analytic tractability constraining firms to adjust their prices at prespecified times both simplifies the derivation of equilibrium strategies and allows the use of powerful time series techniques to analyze aggregate dynamics the main disadvantage of the timedependent approach is that between price adjustments firms are not allowed to respond even to extreme changes of circumstance this makes it difficult to know whether the qualitative effects of money in these models are the result of nominal rigidities per se or of the exogenously imposed pattern of price changes an alternative approach to modeling price stickiness is to allow the price setting decision to depend on the actual state of the

the behavior of prices and inflation an empirical analysis of disaggregat price data this paper analyzes the effects of inflation on the dispersion of prices as well as other aspects of price behavior using disaggregated data on prices of foodstuffs in israel during 1978 84 we find that the effect of expected inflation on intramarket price variability is stronger than the effect of unexpected inflation we show that even in times of high inflation price quotations are not trivially short and price changes are not synchronized across firms these facts taken together confirm that there is some staggering in the setting of prices we find that the distribution of real prices is far from being uniform as many menu cost based models assume or conclude in fact as inflation increases to very high levels this distribution is not even symmetric when the annual inflation rate reaches 130 percent there are equal chances of finding real prices above or below the market average but upward deviations in the real price are further away from zero than downward ones furthermore as the annu

investments holdup and the form of market contracts the authors analyze incomplete contracts to induce efficient investment with exogenous switching costs fixed price contracts are efficient generate some rigidity in prices are renegotiated intermittently by possibly small amounts and when inflation is positive generate asymmetric responses to shocks all consistent with evidence on prices and wages with two sided specific investments efficiency requires prices to have sufficient escalator clauses to avoid renegotiation as observed in many long term contracts a third case with one sided specific investments can generate take or pay contracts and explain why firms sometimes pay for specific investments that appear to benefit employees directly

on risk aversion and bargaining outcomes abstract we revisit the well known result that asserts that an increase in the degree of one s risk aversion improves the position of one s opponents to this end we apply yaari s dual theory of choice under risk both to nash s bargaining problem and to rubinstein s game of alternating offers under this theory unlike under expected utility risk aversion influences the bargaining outcome only when this outcome is random namely when the players are risk lovers in this case an increase in one s degree of risk aversion increases one s share of the pie

product market competition and the industry price cost markup fluctuations abstract we examine the role played by imperfect competition in the response of markups to energy price and monetary changes we find i for concentrated industries markups increase with monetary expansion and decrease when energy prices increase the elasticity with respect to energy prices is greater than monetary changes ii for low concentration industries markups are virtually unaffected by monetary changes and the energy price elasticities are statistically insignificant iii markups are procyclical over the industry specific cycle and iv increased import competition lowers markups only in the concentrated industries the energy price increases decreases during the 1970s 1980s may have been a key factor contributing to the narrowing widening of the markup gap between high and low concentration industries we provide evidence that procyclical markups in concentrated industries are not being driven by differences in the degree of labor hoarding between low and high concentration industries

can more frequent price changes lead to price inertia nonneutralities in a state dependent pricing context the authors present a generalized s s state dependent pricing model in which menus are changed not just in response to price misalignment but also in response to factors such as changing product mix their model generates aggregate price inertia and so reverses an important earlier result on neutrality in state dependent pricing contexts in more general settings than previous modifications it also provides a compromise between state and time dependent rules gives a glimpse at the dynamic implications of menu cost models and reproduces two recent results one on phillips curve slopes and one on asymmetric fluctuations copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

the timing and magnitude of retail store markdowns evidence from weekends and holidays we examine daily prices of eight goods at seventeen retail stores collected in ann arbor michigan over a four month period from november 1 to february 28 we focus on weekly and seasonal price patterns and on the frequency of price markdowns or sales there were frequent markdowns in the intensive shopping period prior to christmas and a tendency for such sales to occur on weekends we interpret these findings as evidence that a significant number of markdowns are timed to occur when shopping intensity is exogenously high we complement the imperfect information based motives for sales in the literature by contributing an additional element based on the role of bulk shopping and increasing returns in the shopping technology

money and the dispersion of relative prices a price dispersion equation is tested with data from the german hyperinflation the equation is derived from a version of lucas s and barro s partial information localized market models in this extension different excess demand elasticities across commodities imply a testable dispersion equation in which the explanatory variable is the magnitude of the unperceived money growth in order to test this hypothesis a price dispersion series is constructed and a measure of the unperceived part of money growth is estimated the model receives support from the empirical analysis although it is evident that unincluded variables have important effects on price dispersion

relative price variability inflation and the allocative efficiency of the price system abstract this paper develops a theory of the relationship between aggregate and relative price variability based on the inability of people even in a rational world to identify permanent changes in relative demands whether caused by real or by monetary variability and relative productivities as soon as they occur the theory implies that the variance of the rate of inflation and the variance of relative price change are positively related although expectations are rational and markets always clear production decisions respond sluggishly to changes in relative prices temporary shocks to relative demands cause prolonged changes in the structure of production available information is used so as to maximize the efficiency of the price system however this efficiency decreases when any of the underlying variances increases this decrease is more pronounced when the production lag is longer

the relationship between relative prices and the general price level it is very nearly a truismi amaong neoclassical economists that the public is wont to confuse changes in the general price level with relative price changes correspondingl y one might speak of the independence between the two as one of the central postulates of the neoclassical tradition william stanley jevons was aml ong the first to identify this basic dichotomin economic life as well as to attempt to explain the ordinary citizen s seenming incapacity to understand it

profit margins and the business cycle evidence from uk manufacturing firms this paper presents some empirical models of profitability using panel data covering 709 large u k companies ove r the 1970s and 1980s focusing specifically on the role of aggregate demand shocks in shaping firm level profitability in basic regressi ons and in quite complex econometric models the results suggest that firm level profit margins fell heavily during the deep manufacturing recession of the early 1980s and as such are consistent with model s predicting the procyclical nature of profit margins this result hol ds across different product groups producer goods consumer durables a nd nondurables though the timing of the impact of aggregate shocks appears to differ copyright 1993 by blackwell publishing ltd

customer markets credit market imperfections and real price rigidity according to standard theory an increase in demand should raise prices of goods given factor prices empirically however prices appear to be unaffected by short run variations in demand this paper suggests an explanation of this observation if customers react slowly to price changes and credit markets are imperfect prices may be unchanged or even fall when demand increases the reason is that when demand is high profits are high and firms can compete more intensely for customers without increasing their borrowing copyright 1991 by the london school of economics and political science

price dispersion and inflation evidence from israel the paper considers the question whether observed price differentials reflect perceived differences in quality service agreements or location or whether information imperfections can explain this phenomenon it sets out theoretical arguments linking inflation to reductions in the information stock held by agents and thus to greater price dispersion the hypothesis is tested using monthly price data for 13 uniquely defined goods sold in israel between 1971 and 1984 price dispersion is shown to be positively related to the rate of market price inflation since inflation is an unlikely proxy for changes in perceived characteristics the findings support price dispersion theories based on optimally imperfect decision making

microeconomic rigidities and aggregate price dynamics abstract this paper is an attempt to enrich the characterization of the sluggish behavior of the aggregate price level our contribution to this vast literature is to explicitly consider microeconomic heterogeneity and its interaction with nonlinear microeconomic price adjustment policies the model we propose outperforms the constant probability of adjustment partial adjustment model in describing the path of postwar u s inflation using only aggregate data we infer that the probability that a firm adjusts its price depends on the sign and the magnitude of the deviation of the price from its target level at the aggregate level we find that the aggregate price level responds less to negative shocks than to positive shocks that the size of this asymmetry increases with the size of the shock and that the number of firms changing their prices and therefore the flexibility of the price level to aggregate shocks varies endogenously over time in response to changes in economic conditions

why are prices sticky preliminary results from an interview study this paper reports preliminary results from a large research project on business pricing which is currently underway the idea is to use interviews with actual price setters to assess the validity of a dozen theories of price stickiness the rather unorthodox for economists methodology is defended the research design is described briefly and a few results based on the first 72 interviews out of a projected 200 are presented this sample suggests that the median firm changes its price annually and that price adjustments typically lag 3 4 months behind shocks to demand or cost this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

relative price variability and inflation regression studies have established that there tend to be convex nonsymmetric relationships between relative price variability and the inflation rate unanticipated inflation and the change in the inflation rate this paper shows that such regression results follow as definitional artifacts for a simple but quite general stochastic model of price changes the analysis is based on the fact that the definitions of relative price variability the inflation rate unanticipated inflation and the change in the inflation rate imply a particular structure for the covariances among these variables the structure of these covariances has implications for the regression coefficients copyright 1991 by ohio state university press

testing static oligopoly models conduct and cost in the sugar industry 1890 1914 we explore the widespread methodology of using demand information to infer market conduct and unobserved cost components under the hypothesis of static oligopoly behavior direct measures of marginal cost and conduct indicating small market power serve as benchmarks the more competitive models yield better cost estimates the best cost estimates occur when conduct is estimated as a free parameter which in turn only slightly underestimates our direct measure it also tracks the decline in market power accompanying the industry s structural changes the methodology is largely validated although partial cost information can improve its predictive power conclusions are robust to demand function

menu costs and the neutrality of money a model of endogenous price adjustment under money growth is presented firms follow s s pricing policies and price revisions are imperfectly synchronized in the aggregate price stickiness disappears and money is neutral the connection between firm price adjustment and relative price variability in the presence of monetary growth is also investigated the results contrast with those obtained in models with exogenous fixed timing of price adjustment

nash bargaining and risk aversion it is widely accepted among axiomatic bargaining theorists that if one bargainer is more risk averse than a second the second will be a tougher bargaining opponent than the first against all opponents we argue that this relationship between risk aversion and bargaining toughness is both highly fragile and more nuanced than previously articulated in the nash and kalai smorodinsky bargaining frameworks we establish that when a bargainer is compared with a second who is almost globally more risk averse than the first the supposedly immutable relationship between bargaining effectiveness and risk aversion evaporates specifically we identify an upper hemicontinuity failure of a correspondence which maps the power set of all lotteries to those utility pairs that satisfy our almost global comparative risk aversion relation on these subsets we trace the consensus view that tougher bargainers are less risk averse to an exclusive focus on precisely the point at which this correspondence implodes

business cycles and the relationship between concentration and price cost margins using a newly constructed panel data base we examine changes in price cost margins in 284 manufacturing industries between 1958 and 1981 a key finding is a dramatic narrowing of the spread between the margins of concentrated and unconcentrated industries over this period we provide evidence that this narrowing is a result of the greater sensitivity of price cost margins in more concentrated industries to demand fluctuations this finding is robust to the inclusion of other industry variables and to measures of import competition the results indicate that cross sectional estimates of the concentration margins relationship are likely to be both biased and misleading

robustness of the relationship between price variability and inflation for us manufacturing we study the relationship between relative price variability and inflation in two different ways we first look at product class census unit values for five time periods between 1958 and 1982 and find evidence of a positive relationship between variability and inflation then we directly update the vining and elwertowski 1976 study for the period 1974 91 using individual commodity series from the bureau of labor statistics we conclude by discussing differences across industries in price stickiness

inflation and the distribution of price changes across markets a causal analysis recent advances in time series methodology are applied to the investigation of causal relationships between monthly changes in the consumer price index and changes in its dispersion across different consumption categories this dispersion is associated with the degree to which relative prices are changing past inflation rates seem useful in forecasting changes in relative prices but not vice versa there is also a significant contemporaneous correlation between these series hence it is concluded that fluctuations in the inflation rate help cause fluctuations in relative prices but not vice versa unless the entire effect occurs within a month the analysis also serves to illustrate a new way to implement the granger causality concept

sticky prices new evidence from retail catalogs this paper presents new results on the size frequency and synchronization of price changes for twelve selected retail goods over the past 35 years three basic facts about the data are uncovered first nominal prices are typically fixed for more than one year although the time between changes is very irregular second prices change more often during periods of high overall inflation third when prices do change the sizes of the changes are widely dispersed both large and small changes occur for the same item and the sizes of these changes do not closely depend on overall inflation

price adjustments by a gasoline retail chain we use daily data to examine price responses in the swedish gasoline market to changes in the rotterdam spot price exchange rates and taxes the distribution of price adjustments by a leading retail chain for the period january 1980 to december 1996 is symmetric with no small adjustments an error correction model shows that in the short run prices gradually move towards the long run equilibrium in response to cost shocks there is some evidence that also in the short run prices are stickier downwards than upwards prices respond more rapidly to exchange rate movements than to the spot market price our analysis emphasizes that to fully understand price adjustments it is necessary to examine data sets where the sample frequency at least matches that of price adjustments

capital market imperfections and countercyclical markups theory and evidence during recessions output prices seem to rise relative to wages and raw material prices one explanation is that imperfectly competitive firms compete less aggressively during recessions that is markups of price over marginal cost are countercyclical the authors present a model of countercyclical markups based on capital market imperfections during recessions liquidity constrained firms boost short run profits by raising prices to cut their investments in market share the authors provide evidence from the supermarket industry in support of this theory during regional and macroeconomic recessions more financially constrained supermarket chains raise their prices relative to less financially constrained chains copyright 1996 by american economic association

variability of inflation and the dispersion of relative prices evidence from the chinese hyperinflation of 1946 1949 abstract this paper uses data from the chinese hyperinflation of 1946 1949 to focus on the relationship between the variability in the general price level and the dispersion in relative prices the issue is important because it bears on the natural rate hypothesis which supports the postulate that these two monetary variables are independent our results reinforce the bulk of previous evidence which suggests a positive correlation between the variation in inflation rate and the dispersion in relative prices during inflationary episodes

inflation and relative price variability in yugoslavia abstract granger causality tests show that inflation granger causes relative price variability but the feedback relationship cannot be excluded

customer markets and the welfare effects of monetary policy a customer market model in which firms and customers form long term relations is developed and integrated into the canonical new keynesian framework this leads to two important differences compared to the standard model first the purely forward looking phillips curve is replaced by a hybrid variant where current inflation also depends on past inflation second the welfare cost of inflation is much lower which leads to an optimal monetary policy where relatively more weight is put on output gap stabilization than previously found in the literature

underemployment equilibrium with rational expectations in this paper i use some recent work in the microeconomics of imperfect information to construct a macro model the microeconomic theory suggests that atomistically competitive firms face kinked demand curves in this model there is a range of aggregate equilibria consistent with correct information i then show that individual firms can face a free rider problem in trying to move from one equilibrium to another by changing the price level monetary policy is not subject to this problem even if the policy is fully anticipated

staggering and synchronization in price setting evidence from multiproduct firms theoretical work on price setting behavior focuses on the single product case while in reality a single price setter sells many products the authors use retail store level multiproduct pricing data to learn about price dynamics they find that while the timing of a product s price changes is staggered across stores selling the same product the timing of the price changes of different products sold within the same store is highly synchronized this finding validates the usual assumption that decisions are staggered across price setters and suggests that price rigidity is due mostly to mechanical reasons and not to informational asymmetries copyright 1996 by american economic association

inflation fixed cost of price adjustment and measurement of relative price variability theory and evidence in an interesting paper julio rotemberg 1983 extends the works of eitan sheshinski and yoram weiss 1977 and michael mussa 1981 to examine the aggregate consequences of monetary growth in an economy in which sellers incur a fixed cost of price adjustment the fixed cost prevents a continual adjustment of individual prices so each seller keeps his price constant in periods of discrete length increasing his price in discrete jumps at the end of these periods a central feature of the inflationary process is therefore that relative prices become dispersed around their means and the theory predicts that even a fully anticipated inflation increases the variability of relative prices the empirical evidence on this point does however appear to be mixed on the one hand richard parks 1978 and stanley fischer 1981a b 1982 conclude that anticipated inflation does increase relative price variability which fischer interprets as providing empirical support for the theory on the other hand mario blejer 1981 1983 and blejer and leonardo leiderman 1982 find that anticipated inflation has no effect or only a very weak effect on relative price variability which makes john taylor 1981 doubt the quantitative significance of the theory 2 this paper uses rotemberg s theoretical framework to demonstrate that the proxy for relative price variability adopted in the empirical literature does not properly capture the relative price variability that is caused by a fixed cost of price adjustment the methodology of the above cited studies is therefore not appropriate for evaluating the empirical relevance of the fixed cost theory and the divergence of their results is not surprising specifically the proxy which consists of the variance of the rates of price change between successive observations does not always increase with the anticipated inflation even with disaggregate data 3 the proxy decreases with the anticipated inflation in approximately half of any interval of inflation rates for which a seller adjusts his price no more than a given number of times between successive observations moreover the relationship between the anticipated inflation and the proxy depends on such extraneous factors as the timing of the observations a change in the timing may change a positive relationship between the anticipated inflation and the proxy to a negative one and vice versa the paper also proposes alternative more satisfactory measures of relative price variability and provides empirical support for the theoretical conclusions

relative price changes as aggregate supply shocks this paper proposes a theory of supply shocks or shifts in the short run phillips curve based on relative price changes and frictions in nominal price adjustment when price adjustment is costly firms adjust to large shocks but not to small shocks and so large shocks have disproportionate effects on the price level therefore aggregate inflation depends on the distribution of relative price changes inflation rises when the distribution is skewed to the right and falls when the distribution is skewed to the left we show that this theoretical result explains a large fraction of movements in postwar u s inflation moreover our model suggests measures of supply shocks that perform better than traditional measures such as the relative prices of food and energy

the magnitude of menu costs direct evidence from large u s supermarket chains we use store level data to document the exact process of changing prices and to directly measure menu costs at five multistore supermarket chains we show that changing prices in these establishments is a complex process requiring dozens of steps and a nontrivial amount of resources the menu costs average 105 887 year per store comprising 0 70 percent of revenues 35 2 percent of net margins and 0 52 price change these menu costs may be forming a barrier to price changes specifically 1 a supermarket chain facing higher menu costs due to item pricing laws that require a separate price tag on each item changes prices two and one half times less frequently than the other four chains 2 within this chain the prices of products exempt from the law are changed over three times more frequently than the products subject to the law in principle fixed costs of changing prices can be observed and measured in practice such costs take disparate forms in different firms and we have no data on their magnitude so the theory can be tested at best indirectly at worst not at all alan blinder 1991 p 90

optimal pricing with costly adjustment evidence from retail grocery prices in many theoretical models it is assumed that there are costs associated with adjusting prices in this paper the existence type and magnitude of such costs are investigated empirically a discrete choice dynamic programming model that nests fixed and variable costs is developed and econometric estimates of the adjustment cost function are obtained the data used to implement the model consist of weekly retail prices and sales of three brands of saltine crackers sold by four chains of grocery stores in a small u s town the study has several distinguishing characteristics first the data are highly disaggregate at the level of brand and store second variables are sampled at weekly intervals third the model nests fixed and variable adjustment costs and can therefore determine their relative importance finally the discrete choice model is both structural and dynamic

intermediate goods and business cycles implications for productivity and welfare this paper presents an aggregate demand driven model of business cycles that provides a new explanation for the procyclicality of productivity and simultaneously predicts large welfare losses from monetary nonneutrality the key features of the model are an input output production structure imperfect competition countercyclical markups and for some results state dependent price rigidity true technical efficiency is procyclical even though production takes place with constant returns without technology shocks or technological externalities the paper has observable implications that distinguish it empirically from related work these implications are generally supported by data from u s manufacturing industries copyright 1995 by american economic association

aggregation and optimization with state dependent pricing the literature on the aggregation of s s policies has ignored the impact of aggregate behavior on the individual s optimization problem in the case of pricing the feedback effects are clear not only do pricing strategies determine the evolution of the price level but the evolution of the price level also influences the optimal pricing strategies in this paper we provide a consistent treatment of aggregation and optimization we use this model to analyze three issues in the menu cost pricing literature the relationship between strategic complementarity and the real effects of money the relationship between the variance of the money supply and the correlation between money and output and the relationship between the cost of price adjustment and the size of price adjustment questions concerning the dynamics of aggregate variables such as prices employment investment and consumption represent the core of business cycle analysis one striking feature of these variables is the radical difference between properties of these aggregates and the nature of the individual behavior that underlies them the behavior of a firm s prices investment and employment and the behavior of an individual s consumption all involve frictional elements that lead to discrete adjustment at the microeconomic level heterogeneity among individuals however tends to smooth the behavior of the corresponding aggregates in recent years a large body of research has developed to examine the manner in which microeconomic frictions influence aggregate dynamics one of the centerpieces of this research has been the s s model developed by arrow harris and marschak 1951 the key element of this model is the state dependence of individual decisions agents act when a state variable crosses some critical threshold which balances the cost and benefits of adjustment the aggregate implications of this form of microeconomic behavior have been analyzed by blinder 1981 caplin 1985 and mosser 1991 in the context of inventory dynamics by caplin and spulber 1987 caballero and engel 1991 1993 and caplin and leahy 1991 in the context of prices and by bertola and caballero 1990 caballero 1993 and eberly 1994 in the context of con sumer durables one of the most limiting aspects of these models is that they focus exclusively on the impact that microeconomic inertia has on aggregate dynamics they 1we would like to thank michael harrison loannis karatzas john leahy sr andreu mas colell a co editor and four anonymous referees for helpful discussions and comments and the national science foundation and the sloan foundation for financial support

on the anatomy of inflation the variability of relative commodity prices in argentina there is substantial evidence indicating that the inflationary process is not neutral with respect to the structure of relative prices a1though real variables also affect the distribution of commodity prices the variability of relative prices appears to be largely increased by monetary phenomena the general picture emerging from the empirical literature links the cross sectional variability of commodity prices to the variability of the aggregate rate of inflation over time to the rate of unexpected inflation and to the rate of monetary expansion 1 most studies however have dealt with low inflation countries for which it is more difficult to isolate real from monetary effects on relative price changes the purpose of this paper is to analyze in detail the characteristics of relative price behavior within the context of very rapid and variable inflation using disaggregated monthly data for argentina a number of specific aspects of that country s

relative price variability and inflation a disaggregated analysis relative price variability has been studied at the cross sectional intermarket level this paper addresses the equally important phenomenon of intramarket variability the dispersion of commodity price movements around the industry average using quarterly price data for 80 disaggregated commodity groups in the united kingdom from 1974 to 1984 the paper investigates the determinants of intramarket price variability and replicates some previous crosssectional tests for the united kingdom intermarket price variability is found to be positively related to inflation which confirms previous results for the united states and other countries intramarket variability is found to be positively related to the average market rate of price change but the strength of this relationship appears to be inversely related to the level of industry concentration these results generally support the propositions and findings reported by stigler and kindahl

heterogeneity in price rigidity evidence from a case study using microlevel data we combine two data sets to study price rigidity the first consists of weekly time series of retail wholesale and spot prices for twelve products these time series contain two exogenous cost shocks we find that prices exhibit more rigidity in response to the second shock than the first the second data set consists of all publicly available information about the shocks content analysis of these information reveals that the first shock is larger and more persistent and the market has more information on it than the second we conclude therefore that prices are more flexible in response to cost shocks that are larger that are more persistent and on which market participants have more information

the rigidity of prices this paper uses evidence on individual transaction prices to analyze price behavior the evidence shows that for many transactions pricesremain rigid for periods exceeding one year the rigidity of price ispositively correlated with industry concentration for several productsthe correlation of price changes across buyers is low the paper alsoinvestigates the relationship between price rigidity price change andthe length of time a buyer and seller have been doing business together the author interprets the evidence as emphasizing the importance of nonprice rationing and the inadequacy of models in whichprice movements alone clear markets copyright 1986 by american economic association

on the stubbornness of sticky prices this paper presents a simple menu cost example in which there is a clear distinction between price stickiness and downward rigidity of prices while price stickiness may or may not exist in menu cost models downward rigidity shows up whenever there is a reduction of the expected rate of inflation this reduction changes the optimal target and threshold for each firm for some it also implies an immediate increase of their own price this upward jump of prices in case of a disinflationary attempt is interpreted as downward rigidity since there are no symmetric forces when expected inflation increases copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

optimum pricing policy under stochastic inflation we describe aggregate inflation as a stochastic process in which the rate of change of the price level can be positive or zero where the times spent in each state are of random duration this class of processes includes two state markov chains and renewal processes as special cases it is shown that the optimal pricing policy of a monopolistic firm with non convex costs of price adjustment is s s in its real price i e its nominal price relative to the price level a basic certainty equivalence result is proved i e the firm behaves as if it faces a certain and fixed rate of inflation higher than the actual expected rate the difference between the two rates being a risk premium which depends on the real interest rate and the parameters of the stochastic process one can thus apply previous results from the case of certainty sheshinski and weiss review of economic studies 1977 to obtain comparative static results in particular one finds that an increase in the variance of expected inflation leads firms to choose a pricing policy with larger amplitude in real price the paper also addresses the question of consistency in firms expectations when the price level is determined by the firms actions in this paper we consider pricing policies of individual firms in an inflationary environment each firm expects the general price level to increase and must determine the rate of increase of its own price it is assumed that the firm incurs an adjustment cost when it changes its nominal price consequently firms choose to change prices occasionally rather than continuously

microfoundations of macroeconomic price adjustment survey evidence from swedish firms this paper presents the results of a survey on price setting behavior conducted on a large random sample of swedish firms the median firm adjusts the price once a year state and time dependent price setting are about equally important the four highest ranked explanations for price rigidity in this study implicit contracts sluggish costs explicit contracts and the kinked demand curve have close correspondents among the top five places in two similar large scale surveys carried out in the uk and the u s the results point to the importance of the long term relations with customers for the rigidity of prices the estimated share of sales that go to regular customers is more than 80

small menu costs and large business cycles a macroeconomic model of monopoly i introduction the conflict between modern neoclassical and traditional keynesian theories of the business cycle centers upon the pricing mechanism in neoclassical models prices are fully flexible they represent the continuous optimization of economic agents and the continuous intersection of supply and demand in keynesian models prices are often assumed to be sticky they do not necessarily equilibrate all markets at all times one of the reasons for the resurgence of the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics has been the absence of a theoretical underpinning for this keynesian price stickiness this note shows that sticky prices can be both privately efficient and socially inefficient the business cycle results from the suboptimal adjustment of prices in response to a demand shock to the extent that policy can stabilize aggregate demand it can mitigate the social loss due to this suboptimal adjustment in some keynesian models prices are simply exogenously fixed 2 in others agents must set their prices in advance of the transaction date the act of altering a posted price is certainly costly these costs include such items as printing new catalogs and informing salesmen of the new price yet these menu costs are small and therefore generally perceived as providing only a weak foundation for these fixed price models however this inference is flawed small menu costs can cause large welfare losses the claim that price adjustment costs are small does not rebut the claim that they are central to understanding economic fluctuations

inflation and relative price variability abstract theoretical explanations of the inflation relative price variability relationship are often observationally equivalent this paper compares two theoretical models menu costs and imperfect information the microfoundations of the models are used to generate new testable differences between the theories

risk aversion in the nash bargaining problem with risky outcomes and risky disagreement points according to this paper the analysis of the nash bargaining problem with risky outcomes must include the cases where the disagreement outcome itself is risky as well thus one generalizes the roth and rothblum results to models with risky disagreement outcome as well it turns out that their result will depend in some cases upon the degree of change in risk aversion particularly when the potential agreement has an outcome which makes player 2 worse off compared to the disagreement and if the disagreement does not dominate that outcome i e its support contains a worse outcome then when player 2 becomes sufficiently more risk averse player 1 becomes better off thus one obotains that increase in risk aversion may be disadvantageous to player 2 even if the risky disagreement is preferred to some outcome of the risky agreement

insiders outsiders and nominal wage contracts while the consequences of nominal wage contracts have been rather thoroughly analyzed there is no generally accepted theory of why such contracts prevail in this paper i argue that the distinction between insiders and outsiders is important for understanding nominal wage contracts since most employment fluctuations take the form of fluctuations in hiring insiders are normally not affected by them since prices are primarily determined by costs demand shocks have small effects on real wages thus insiders have little incentive to change to more complicated contracts with rigid nominal wages nominal demand shocks have large effects on the employment opportunities of outsiders but outsiders have little influence on labor contracts