the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation the fisher equation revisited stable url http links jstor org sici sici 0022 2879 28199602 2928 3a1 3c102 3atlrbni 3e2 0 co 3b2 2journal of money credit and banking is currently published by ohio state university press your use of the jstor archive indicates your acceptance of jstor s terms and conditions of use available athttp www jstor org about terms html jstor s terms and conditions of use provides in part that unless you have obtainedprior permission you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles and you may use content inthe jstor archive only for your personal non commercial use please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work publisher contact information may be obtained athttp www jstor org journals ohio press html each copy of any part of a jstor transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printedpage of such transmission the jstor archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long term preservation and access to leading academicjournals and scholarly literature from around the world the archive is supported by libraries scholarly societies publishers and foundations it is an initiative of jstor a not for profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community takeadvantage of advances in technology for more information regarding jstor please contact support jstor org http www jstor orgmon aug 27 13 58 08 2007

testing for the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation using cointegration techniques 1989 testing for the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation using cointegration techniques applied economics vol 21 no 4 pp 439 447

cointegration tests of the fisher hypothesis with variable trends in the world real interest rate after seventy years the fisher hypothesis has proven to be one of the most durable and influential theories in economics yet after years of debate and testing the empirical accuracy of the proposition remains in question the fisher hypothesis simply states that a one point increase in inflation leads to a one point increase in the nominal interest rate leaving real interest rates unchanged this relationship does not rule out the possibility of other variables influencing the real interest rate or variable trends in the real interest rate arising from sources other than inflation this paper merges the literature on real interest rate parity with tests of the fisher hypothesis to control for variable trends in the real interest rate

the gender gap fertility and growth changes in fertility have long been recognized as important correlates of economic growth with the relationship between the level of fertility and the level of income per capita being one of the strongest observable correlations in cross country data this paper examines the linkages between fertility and growth theory the structure of the model is presented in sections on production couples decision making system dynamics and steady state equilibria the first component of the model is that increases in capital per worker raise womens relative wages since capital is more complementary to womens labor input than to mens the second component is that increasing womens relative wages reduces fertility by raising the cost of children more than household income finally lower fertility raises the level of capital per worker a positive feedback loop generates demographic transition a rapid decline in fertility accompanied by accelerated output growth

a note on nonstationarity structural breaks and the fisher effect abstract we find empirical evidence that inflation nominal and real interest rates in the us are trend stationary with a structural break in both the unconditional mean and the drift rate of a deterministic trend which occurs shortly after the change in operating procedures of the fed in september 1979 this finding casts some doubts on cointegration tests of the long run fisher effect conducted in recent studies since the results of these tests can be affected by the existence of common structural breaks in the series we propose an alternative test of the fisher effect based on a var representation in appropriately detrended variables we find strong support for the fisher effect both in the medium term and in the long term

what is fractional integration a simple construction that will be referred to as an error duration model is shown to generate fractional integration and long memory an error duration representation also exists for many familiar arma models making error duration an alternative to autoregression for explaining dynamic persistence in economic variables the results lead to a straightforward procedure for simulating fractional integration and establish a connection between fractional integration and common notions of structural change two examples show how the error duration model could account for fractional integration in aggregate employment and in asset price volatility

a cross national comparison of consumer research measures the impact of three factors that affect the psychometric rigor of cross national consumer research comparisons is measured in this study conclusions are also drawn about the interactions among these factors and the resultant deterioration in the psychometric quality of the data

influence of formalization on role stress organizational commitment and work alienation of salespersons a cross national comparative study organizations rely on formalization to coordinate the efforts of employees however this practice has been found to have a negative influence on role stress organizational commitment and work alienation of salespersons though the negative influence of formalization in the united states has been known for some time we still cannot predict if similar relationships would should be observed in other countries because the rationale developed to explain these relationships in the united states did not consider the cultural factors that influence them with such knowledge it would become possible to anticipate the nature of the relationship in different cultural environments such an approach to developing cross national models has been often suggested but seldom implemented by emphasizing the role of culture this study generates practical guidelines for both practitioners and theorists

the manager as mediator of alternative meanings a pilot study from china the usa and u k managers in china the usa and britain were asked to describe the extent to which they used five sources for handling nine managerial events western managers were found to rely more upon their own experience and training while in china rules and procedures were more salient for most events western managers who described themselves as relying on their own experience and training believed that the events had been well handled they reported that events were less well handled to the extent that they referred to their superiors reliance on the superior was associated with role ambiguity among western managers but not in china even though chinese managers relied more upon rules and procedures they too evaluated events more positively when they had relied on their own experience and training the results are discussed in terms of chinese and western cultural values and the prospects for change in managerial practice in china

the fisher effect and the term structure of interest rates tests of cointegration the literature on the fisher effect has ignored the potential relationship between inflation and long term interest rates using an expectations model of the term structure of interest rates the authors establish the conditions under which innovations in short term inflation will be transmitted to long term as well as short term interest rates cointegration tests find support for both the fisher effect and the expectations theory of the term structure copyright 1993 by mit press

the dynamics of bequeathed tastes with endogenous fertility abstract in contrast with the existing literature with overlapping generations aspirations and exogenous fertility this article shows that endogenous fertility prevents endogenous fluctuations in a general equilibrium economy

optimal growth when tastes are inherited we address the issue of optimal growth when standard of living aspirations are transmitted from one generation to the next we derive the condition for the optimal solution to be stable in the saddle point sense and show that this optimal solution may display damped oscillations even when the planner does not discount the utility of future generations golden rule case the decentralization of the optimal solution aims at correcting the inter generational externality by use of an investment subsidy and allows to avoid socially damaging rushes on consumption in expansion periods it also allows to stabilize output in the case of competitive economies displaying endogenous fluctuations

mean reversion in interest rates new evidence from a panel of oecd countries previous studies show that the standard univariate unit root tests cannot reject the hypothesis that interest rates follow integrated processes in this paper the authors pool interest rate data of twelve oecd countries and implement a multivariate test it is found that the unit root hypothesis can be decisively rejected copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

mean reversion in the real interest rate and the effects of calculating expected inflation we investigate the measured persistence in the real interest rate using a variety of methods to annualize inflation and calculate the real rate results from a battery of conventional unit root tests yield conflicting conclusions for the various real rates adding to an existing confusion regarding mean reversion both long memory and exponential smooth transition autoregres sive models estar nonlinearity are considered as possible alternatives and in contrast to the unit root test results we find highly robust evidence against the unit root null based on the empirical results monte carlo analysis is performed to study the disparate results obtained using fractional integration and unit root tests

the dynamics of bequeathed tastes if children inherit life standard aspirations from their parents then their savings are affected and cycles may appear in overlapping generations olg models with production at some point of an expansion aspirations grow faster than wages savings decrease and a contraction begins

the time series properties of norwegian inflation and nominal interest rate this article investigates the time series properties of norwegian inflation and nominal interest rate using annual data from 1850 to 2004 a number of different univariate unit root tests are employed to examine whether the time series are mean reverting or generated by unit root processes results show very strong evidence in favour of mean reversion in inflation but a unit root in the nominal interest rate this implies that there exists no long run relationship between these two variables a conclusion which is further supported by cointegration tests and estimated vector error correction models the cointegration analysis also points to an important potential pitfall when using cointegration techniques on systems where some variables are stationary processes

are real interest rates equal across countries an empirical investigation of international parity conditions this paper conducts empirical tests of the equality of real interest rates across countries the empirical evidence strongly rejects the hypothesis of real rate equality and the joint hypotheses of uncovered interest parity and ex ante relative ppp or the unbiasedness of forward rate forecasts and ex ante relative ppp the evidence suggests that it is worth studying open economy macroeconomic models which allow 1 domestic real rates to differ from world rates 2 time varying risk premiums in the forward market or 3 deviations from ex ante relative ppp the relationship of real interest rates across countries is of central importance to our understanding of open economy macroeconomics in some models where there is costless international arbitrage in goods and financial assets real interest rates for comparable securities should be equal across countries this has been a feature of much of the early research in the monetary approach to exchange rates e g frenkel 11 and bilson 2 on the other hand finance theory indicates that risk premia may well differ for comparable securities denominated in different currencies solnick 27 roll and solnick 26 stulz 28 fama and farber 7 hansen and hodrick 17 and dornbusch 6 and more recent theoretical models in the exchange rate literature such as dornbusch 5 frankel 10 and mussa 24 depend on real rates differing between countries in the short run the proposition that real rates are equal across countries is worth studying

the fisher hypothesis revisited new evidence the nominal interest rate is examined with the is lm model incorporating the fisher hypothesis eight different interest rates are considered for different sample periods ending in 1993 when the livingston survey data are used the coefficients for the expected inflation rate real quantity of money and government spending are significant in most cases when the adaptive expectations model is applied the coefficients for real quantity of money and government spending are insignificant in most cases the fisher hypothesis only holds for the federal funds rate or the aaa bond rate the linear form regression can be rejected at the 1 level in favour of the box cox general functional form

does monetary policy affect the long run expectations of non stationary real interest rates in this article we analyse whether the monetary policy affects the long run expectation of the non stationary real interest rate the analysis is conducted through beveridge nelson trend decomposi

the covariation of risk premiums and expected future spot exchange rates abstract eugene fama 1984 analyzed the variability and the covariation of risk premiums and expected rates of depreciation we employ three statistical techniques that do not suffer from a potential bias in fama s analysis but we nevertheless conffirms his findings in contrast to his interpretation the results are not necessarily at variance with the predictions of a theoretical model of the risk premium increases in expected rates of depreciation of the dollar relative to five foreign currencies are positively correlated with increases in the expected profitability of purchasing these currencies in the forward market and risk premiums have larger variancies than expected rates of depreciation

methodological and theoretical issues and advancements in cross cultural research this paper summarizes the issues and concerns of critics of cross cultural research and discusses how they are being addressed by researchers given the state of the art and the complexity of this field of research the author recommends more inductive research and the pursuit of appropriate but not overambitious sampling designs so as to increase our understanding of cultures and encourage the building of richer theory bases taking an optimistic view of the field the author predicts useful contributions by researchers which will enrich the art and science of cross cultural management

leadership behavior and organizational commitment a comparative study of american and indian salespersons many studies have examined the impact of leadership behaviors on salespersons organizational commitment unfortunately little is known about how leadership behaviors impact salespersons organizational commitment in countries other than the united states the lack of research is problematic given that many firms today operate globally this study fills the gap and presents a framework for understanding the role of culture on relationships between leadership behaviors and organizational commitment

real interest rate equalization and the integration of international financial markets abstract this paper argues that conventional regression tests of real interest rate equality may be misleading because they neglect to consider transactions costs a transactions cost band may inhibit the one to one correspondence between changes in real rates in alternative countries that is presumed by conventional tests statistical problems which may lead to incorrect inferences in conventional tests are also discussed alternative tests which overcome these limitations are developed and applied to real interest rates for ten different countries the alternative tests generate much stronger support for interest parity than is found in the existing literature

dynamics of persistence in international inflation rates characteristics of inflation play a key role in policy formulation and market analysis several studies have analyzed inflation persistence and reached diverging conclusions in this paper we investigate the dynamics of inflation persistence using fractionally integrated processes and find that there has been a clear decline in inflation persistence in the united states over the past two decades we also show that the presence of fractional integration in inflation successfully explains previous diverging results lastly we provide some international comparisons to examine the extent to which there has been a commensurate decline in inflation persistence in the other g7 economies

nonlinearity and stationarity of inflation rates evidence from the euro zone countries earlier studies hardly reject the hypothesis of a unit root in inflation few studies have examined the possibility of nonlinearity in inflation and tested nonlinear stationarity of the inflation rates this study thus intends to fill the gap this study utilizes the tests for nonlinearity along with the unit root tests that allow for nonlinearity in the variables to examine the stationarity of inflation rates of 12 european countries that formed the euro zone ez later in the sample period the results suggest that the majority of these countries inflation rates can be characterized by mean reversion during the floating exchange rate period many of them appear to be nonlinear stationary this finding is essential in conducting applied economic studies for these countries when constructing models whose validity relies on whether or not inflation is stationary the results of this study also imply that shocks to inflation have a transitory effect on inflation in the euro area therefore it would be le

diagnosing measurement equivalence in cross national research many researchers have pointed out that it is necessary to ensure measurement equivalence in cross national comparative research three aspects of measurement equivalence translation metric and calibration equivalence are necessary to establish the cross national reliability and validity of items used to measure theoretical constructs this paper discusses these issues and proposes two recently developed empirical techniques multiple group lisrel and optimal scaling for use in diagnosing cross national measurement equivalence these techniques are illustrated by reanalysis of a pioneering u s and japanese study the two techniques yield convergent results indicating measurement equivalence for some but not all ordinal level items under consideration the findings demonstrate that the proposed methods are useful diagnostic tools for exploring measurement equivalence several suggestions for reducing the likelihood of problems with measurement equivalence and a number of methods for dealing with items where lack of equivalence persists are also discussed

understanding the fisher equation it is argued that univariate long memory estimates based on ex post data tend to underestimate the persistence of ex ante variables and hence that of the ex post variables themselves because of the presence of unanticipated shocks whose short run volatility masks the degree of long range dependence in the data empirical estimates of long range dependence in the fisher equation are shown to manifest this problem and lead to an apparent imbalance in the memory characteristics of the variables in the fisher equation evidence in support of this typical underestimation is provided by results obtained with inflation forecast survey data and by direct calculation of the finite sample biases to address the problem of bias the paper introduces a bivariate exact whittle bew estimator that explicitly allows for the presence of short memory noise in the data the new procedure enhances the empirical capacity to separate low frequency behaviour from high frequency fluctuations and it produces estimates of long range dependence that are much less biased when there is noise contaminated data empirical estimates from the bew method suggest that the three fisher variables are integrated of the same order with memory parameter in the range 0 75 1 since the integration orders are balanced the ex ante real rate has the same degree of persistence as expected inflation thereby furnishing evidence against the existence of a fractional cointegrating relation among the fisher variables and correspondingly showing little support for a long run form of fisher hypothesis copyright 2004 john wiley sons ltd

the cultural relativity of organizational practices and theories this paper summarizes the author s recently published findings about differences in people s work related values among 50 countries in view of these differences ethnocen tric management theories those based on the value system of one particular country have become untenable this concept is illustrated for the fields of leadership organization and motivation a key issue for organization science is the influence of national cultures on introduction management twenty or even 10 years ago the existence of a relationship be management and tween management and national cultures was far from obvious to many and it national cultures may not be obvious to everyone even now in the 1950s and 60s the dominant be lief at least in europe and the u s was that management was something univer sal there were principles of sound management which existed regardless of na tional environments if national or local practice deviated from these principles it was time to change local practice in the future the universality of sound manage ment practices would lead to societies becoming more and more alike this ap plied even to the poor countries of the third world which would become rich as well and would be managed just like the rich countries also the differences be tween management in the first and second world capitalist and socialist would disappear in fact under the surface they were thought to be a lot smaller than was officially recognized this way of thinking which dominated the 1950s and 60s is known as the convergence hypothesis during the 1970s the belief in the unavoidable convergence of management prac tices waned it was too obviously in conflict with the reality we saw around us at the same time supranational organizations like the european common market which were founded very much on the convergence belief had to recognize the stubbornness of national differences even within existing nations regional dif ferences became more rather than less accentuated the welsh the flemish the basques the bangladeshi the quebecois defended their own identity and this was difficult to reconcile with a management philosophy of convergence it slowly became clear that national and even regional cultures do matter for management the national and regional differences are not disappearing they are here to stay in fact these differences may become one of the most crucial problems for man agement in particular for the management of multinational multicultural orga nizations whether public or private

measuring the persistence of deviations from purchasing power parity with a fractionally integrated star model abstract empirically elements of both fractional long memory and threshold non linearity are present in the real exchange rates of the g 7 countries against the us notably in the eu countries estimated half lives of deviations from ppp using median unbiased corrections to conventional linear autoregressive models corroborate existing evidence related to the ppp paradox as half lives range from at least four years to an infinite number of years in contrast for each eu country accounting for threshold non linearity results in estimated half lives that can be less than three years even with the allowance for fractional long memory

unit roots and persistence in the nominal interest rate a confirmatory analysis applied to the oecd this paper investigates the stochastic properties of long term and short term nominal interest rates for the oecd over the post war era for that purpose we employ univariate unit root tests as well as panel unit root and stationarity tests that explicitly allow for cross sectional dependence overall we find overwhelming evidence that the nominal interest rate contains a unit root which may be driven by a stochastic common factor the computation of half lives through impulse response functions also points to a high degree of persistence this has important implications for the cointegration analysis of the fisher equation the uncovered interest parity and the term structure jel classification

a cross cultural comparative study of managerial job attitudes effective managerial performance is influenced by the types of rewards which managers seek in their work environment and by their perceptions of the degree to which their job expectations are being satisfied this research provides empirical evidence on the nature of job related values and outcomes in 4 countries canada france japan and the uk the survey data reveal that the types of job outcomes sought by managers differ significantly from one culture to another the results should be of practical value to companies seeking to develop more effective management motivational devices in the countries studied moreover the approach and methodology may provide a useful model for further cross cultural studies

influence of role stress on industrial salespeople s work outcomes in the united states japan and korea role theory espouses and extensive empirical research has found that role stress can have deleterious effect on work outcomes of sales personnel the findings of these investigations however are predicated on u s based samples of salespeople whether similar results would be obtained with samples of salespersons in other countries has not yet been determined this paper reports the results of a study that examined the impact of role stress on performance job satisfaction and organizational commitment of industrial salespeople from the united states japan and korea tests of cross national hypotheses indicate general consistency in the findings across the three countries

a long run non linear approach to the fisher effect we argue that the empirical failure of the fisher effect found in the literature may be due to the existence of non linearities in the long run relationship between interest rates and inflation we present evidence that for the u s during the 1960 2004 period the fisher relation presents important non linearities we model the long run non linear relationship and find that an estr model for the pre volcker era and an lstr model for the post volcker era are able to control for non linearities and constitute long run co integration vectors monte carlo evidence produces support for the hypothesis that non linearities may also be responsible for the less than proportional coefficients of inflation usually found in the linear specifications

the international linkage of real interest rates the european us connection abstract in this paper we present evidence on several questions regarding the movement in short term real interest rates in eight countries have ex ante real estates in the united states and europe been high during recent years has there been a link between us real rates and those in other countries can this link be quantified the basic finding in this paper is that real rates have climbed dramatically from the 1970s to the 1980s in both the european countries and the united states there is also strong evidence that there is a positive association between movements in us real rates and those in europe however european real rates typically do not move one for one with us real rates still leaving open the possibility that european monetary policy can influence domestic economic activity

do expected shifts in inflation affect estimates of the long run fisher relation recent empirical studies suggest that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move together one for one in the long run a finding at odds with many theoretical models this article shows that these results can be deceptive when the process followed by inflation shifts infrequently we characterize the shifts in inflation by a markov switching model based upon this model s forecasts we reexamine the long run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation interestingly we are unable to reject the hypothesis that in the long run nominal interest rates reflect expected inflation one for one

co integration error correction and the fisher effect 1989 co integration error correction and the fisher effect applied economics vol 21 no 12 pp 1611 1620

fisher hypothesis in japan analysis of long term interest rates under different monetary policy regimes this paper investigates the validity of the fisher hypothesis in japanese long term interest rates two three four five seven and ten years using non stationary time series models initially the entire sample period october 1987 june 2006 is investigated then the samples divided into three segments depending on each period s monetary policy regimes are investigated thus the asymmetric impacts of inflation expectation on japanese long term interest rates can be investigated the first period examined is from october 1987 june 1991 the second period is from july 1991 july 2000 the third period is from march 2001 june 2006 in the first period monetary policy is tightening but in the second and third periods it is easing thus it is concluded that the fisher hypothesis is valid only in all maturities of long term interest rates in the first period however it does not hold in any of the maturities in the entire sample period or in the second and third periods

measuring corporate citizenship in two countries the case of the united states and france based on an extensive review of the literature and field surveys the paper proposes a conceptualization and operationalization of corporate citizenship meaningful in two countries the united states and france a survey of 210 american and 120 french managers provides support for the proposed definition of corporate citizenship as a construct including the four correlated factors of economic legal ethical and discretionary citizenship the managerial implications of the research and directions for future research are discussed

inflation presidents fed chairs and regime shifts in the u s real interest rate several recent papers agree on the existence of significant regime shifts in the u s real interest rate but disagree on the proximate causes of the shifts caporale and grier 2000 point to large political changes as correlates while rapach and wohar 2004 show that real rate breaks are correlated with inflation regime shifts and argue that the inflation regime changes cause the real rate shifts in this paper we show that controlling for the timing of changes in the inflation regime dummy variables representing either party change in the presidency or change in the identity of the fed chair are still strongly significant for explaining real interest rate fluctuations when we control for a fixed coefficient linear relationship between inflation and the real rate we find two real rate regime shifts that line up almost exactly with the accessions of paul volcker and alan greenspan even if we first let inflation regime switches explain the real rate and then look for regime shifts in the residuals we find almost exactly the same two breaks these results imply that fed chairs sometimes differ with respect to their preferred equilibrium real interest rate

the expectation hypothesis in emerging financial markets the case of malaysia this article deals with the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates it is argued that the rapid progress and financial market liberalization that is occurring in emerging financial markets could provide additional evidence for testing the expectation hypothesis this article employs data from the malaysian government securities market which represents one of the examples of an emerging financial market cointegration and error correction analyses show significant empirical validity for the expectation hypothesis the long and short term interest rates are shown to be cointegrated and subject to a long run equilibrium path in addition to shedding some light on the experience of emerging financial market this article explicitly identifies the process of adjustment towards the long run equilibrium for the long run the results are in favour of the long to short version of expectation hypothesis with longer term interest rates playing a greater role as equilibrium attractor howeve

long and short run fisher effects new tests and new results we find fisher effects both long and short run in our full sample period and in the lengthy first sub period using mishkin s monthly data for treasury bill yields and the corresponding inflation rate recently developed cointegration techniques ahn and reinsel 1990 reinsel and ahn 1992 are used to detect a long run fisher effect the short run effect is analysed within a cointegration framework using a granger causality test that we developed in the two more recent but comparatively short sub periods since october 1979 our results indicate the fisher effect is not present in either long or short run form these methodologies and results differ from the conclusions of mishkin s 1992 recent study

the personal discount rate evidence from military downsizing programs the military drawdown program of the early 1990s provides an opportunity to obtain estimates of personal discount rates based on large numbers of people making real choices involving large sums the program offered over 65 000 separatees the choice between an annuity and a lump sum payment despite break even discount rates exceeding 17 percent most of the separatees selected the lump sum saving taxpayers 1 7 billion in separation costs estimates of discount rates range from 0 to over 30 percent and vary with education age race sex number of dependents ability test score and the size of payment