inefficient credit booms this paper studies the welfare properties of competitive equilibria in an economy with financial frictions hit by aggregate shocks in particular it shows that competitive financial contracts can result in excessive borrowing ex ante and excessive volatility ex post even though from a first best perspective the equilibrium always displays under borrowing from a second best point of view excessive borrowing can arise the inefficiency is due to the combination of limited commitment in financial contracts and the fact that asset prices are determined in a spot market this generates a pecuniary externality that is not internalized in private contracts the model provides a framework to evaluate preventive policies which can be used during a credit boom to reduce the expected costs of a financial crisis copyright 2008 wiley blackwell

trade and protection in vertically related markets abstract we consider home country tariff and subsidy policies in a setting where a home firm is partially dependent on a foreign vertically integrated firm for supplies of a key input the firms are cournot competitors in the home market for the final product we show that a tariff on final product imports may cause the foreign vertically integrated firm to reduce the price charged for the input under circumstances where a simple monopoly supplier of the input would increase its price supply conditions for the input significantly affect whether imports of the input should be taxed or subsidized

backfiring tariffs in vertically related markets abstract this paper examines the effects on the domestic economy of domestic tariffs imposed on an intermediate good or a final good in vertically related markets which are characterized by cournot oligopolies tariffs could lead a foreign firm to enter or exit from the domestic final good market some of our results are counter intuitive it is particularly shown that tariffs on the intermediate good which induce the entry could harm domestic intermediate good producers and or benefit domestic final good producers and that tariffs on the final good which induce the exit could harm both domestic intermediate good and final good producers

optimal bank capital this article reports estimates of the long run costs and benefits of having banks fund more of their assets with loss absorbing capital or equity we model how shifts in funding affect required rates of return and how costs are influenced by the tax system we draw a clear distinction between costs to individual institutions private costs and overall economic or social costs we find that the amount of equity capital that is likely to be desirable for banks to use is very much larger than banks have used in recent years and also higher than targets agreed under the basel iii framework this article reports estimates of the long run costs and benefits of having banks fund more of their assets with loss absorbing capital by which we mean equity rather than debt the benefits come because a larger buffer of truly loss absorbing capital reduces the chance of banking crises which as both past history and recent events show generate substantial economic costs the offset to any such benefits comes in the form of potentially higher costs of intermediation of saving through the banking system the cost of funding bank lending might rise as equity replaces debt and such costs can be expected to be reflected in a higher interest rate charged to those who borrow from banks that in turn would tend to reduce the level of investment with potentially long lasting effects on the level of economic activity calibrating the size of these costs and benefits is important but far from

localization economies vertical organization and trade this paper develops a model of regional production networks based on localization economies i consider an industry with two activities one with location specific external economies the other with constant returns under autarky localization economies imply the formation of an industry center agglomeration drives up wages in the center causing the constant returns activity to disperse to outlying regions trade recreates the regional production network on a global scale i apply the model to data from the mexican apparel industry estimation results on mexico s pre and post trade regional apparel wage structure are consistent with localization economies implications for the north american free trade agreement nafta are discussed this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

excessive volatility in capital flows a pigouvian taxation approach this paper analyzes prudential controls on capital flows to emerging markets from the perspective of a pigouvian tax that addresses externalities associated with the deleveraging cycle it presents a model in which restricting capital inflows during boom times reduces the potential outflows during busts this mitigates the feedback effects of deleveraging episodes when tightening financial constraints on borrowers and collapsing prices for collateral assets have mutually reinforcing effects in our model capital controls reduce macroeconomic volatility and increase standard measures of consumer welfare

what do we know about the effects of macroprudential policy the literature on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy tools is still in its infancy and has so far provided only limited guidance for policy decisions in recent years however increasing efforts have been made to fill this gap progress has been made in embedding macroprudential policy in theoretical models there is increasing empirical work on the effect of some macroprudential tools on a range of target variables such as quantities and prices of credit asset prices and on the amplitude of the financial cycle and financial stability in this paper we provide a critical review of recent progress in theoretical and empirical research on the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments

the swedish banking crisis roots and consequences the article analyses the swedish banking crisis in the early 1990s newly deregulated credit markets after 1985 stimulated a competitive process between financial institutions where expansion was given priority combined with an expansive macro policy this contributed to an asset price boom the subsequent crisis resulted from a highly leveraged private sector being simultaneously hit by three major exogenous events a shift in monetary policy with an increase in pre tax interest rates a tax reform that increased after tax interest rates and the erm crisis combined with some overinvestment in commercial property high real interest rates contributed to breaking the boom in real estate prices and triggering a downward price spiral resulting in bankruptcies and massive credit losses the government rescued the banking system by issuing a general guarantee of bank obligations the total direct cost to the taxpayer of the salvage has been estimated at around 2 per cent of gdp copyright 1999 by oxford university press

strategic non intervention and the choice of trade policy for international oligopoly abstract this paper analyzes a game of strategic trade policy between governments who may choose among quantity controls subsidies and non intervention as policy instruments central to the analysis is our view of non intervention as a distinct policy choice we derive conditions under which non intervention is strictly preferred to the alternative instruments preferences between non intervention and the nash equilibrium subsidy confirm to a simple distance measure involving the stackelberg leadership subsidy the subsidy level zero or nash that is closest to the stackelberg subsidy being preferred

does macro prudential regulation leak evidence from a uk policy experiment the regulation of bank capital as a means of smoothing the credit cycle is a central element of forthcoming macro prudential regimes internationally for such regulation to be effective in controlling the aggregate supply of credit it must be the case that i changes in capital requirements affect loan supply by regulated banks and ii unregulated substitute sources of credit are unable to offset changes in credit supply by affected banks this paper examines micro evidence lacking to date on both questions using a unique data set in the uk regulators have imposed time varying bank specific minimum capital requirements since basel i it is found that regulated banks uk owned banks and resident foreign subsidiaries reduce lending in response to tighter capital requirements but unregulated banks resident foreign branches increase lending in response to tighter capital requirements on a relevant reference group of regulated banks this leakage is substantial amounting to about one third of the initial impulse from the regulatory change

commercial policy in a fragmented world there is abundant evidence that the production process of firms is becoming increasingly fragmented internationally in the sense that a final manufactured good will consist of parts that have been manufactured in a variety of different countries studies of manufacturing industries suggest that the share of imported inputs in international trade rose significantly in the 1970 s and 1980 s and that the fragmentation of the production process has been particularly pronounced in industries such as transportation equipment and electrical machinery 1 what difference does it make if trade reflects a fragmentation of the production process rather than the traditional horizontal specialization in final goods in this paper i focus on the implications of fragmentation for the analysis of commercial policy and emphasize two features of vertical relationships 2 the first is the market linkages that are introduced in models of fragmentation due to the interaction between tariffs on final goods and tariffs on intermediate goods the incentives of countries regarding tariff reduction can vary significantly depending on the pattern of trade the second feature of vertical specialization is that producers of final goods often require inputs that are specialized to their particular needs so that vertical relationships may create contracting problems because of the possibility for opportunistic behavior commercial policy may play a role in altering the form of these vertical relationships

a macroeconomic model with a financial sector this paper studies a macroeconomic model in which financial experts borrow from less productive agents we pursue four sets of results i the economy is prone to instability and occasionally enters volatile episodes as volatility spikes agents precautionary motive increases depressing prices even further log linear approximations fail to capture these non linear effects that can cause economies to be significantly depressed for long periods of time ii endogenous risk during volatile episodes increases asset price correlations iii financial experts impose a negative externality on each other and on the labor sector by not maintaining adequate capital cushion and funding structure iv while risk sharing within the financial sector through securitization and derivatives contracts reduces many inefficiencies it can also amlify systemic risks

macroprudential and monetary policies the need to dance the tango in harmony abstract considering a sample of 37 emerging and advanced economies from 2000q1 to 2014q4 we empirically assess how effective macroprudential policies are in curbing domestic credit growth and whether their effectiveness is affected by monetary policy conditions we obtain three important results first our findings suggest in line with previous research that an overall tightening in macroprudential policies is associated with a reduction in credit growth second we show that a restrictive monetary policy enhances the impact of macroprudential tightening on credit growth third our results seem to suggest that monetary policy helps to reduce the transmission delay of macroprudential policy actions consequently our results confirm the need for coordination between the two policies

a reconsideration of minsky s financial instability hypothesis the worst and longest depressions have tended to occur after periods of prolonged and reasonably stable prosperity this results in part from agents rationally updating their expectations during good times and hence becoming more optimistic about future economic prospects investors then increase their leverage and shift their portfolios towards projects that would previously have been considered too risky so when a downturn does eventually occur the financial crisis and the extent of default become more severe whereas a general appreciation of this syndrome dates back to minsky 1992 jerome levy economics institute wp 74 and even beyond to irving fisher 1933 econometrica 1 337 357 we model it formally in addition endogenous default introduces a pecuniary externality since investors do not factor in the impact of their decision to take risk and default on the borrowing cost we explore the relative advantages of alternative regulations in reducing financial fragility and suggest a novel criterion for improvement of aggregate welfare

trade liberalization and strategic outsourcing this paper develops a model of strategic outsourcing with trade liberalization in the intermediate product market a domestic firm may choose to purchase a key intermediate good from a more efficient foreign producer who also competes with the domestic firm for a final good this has a strategic effect on competition unlike the outsourcing motivated by cost saving the strategic outsourcing has a collusive effect that could raise the prices of both intermediate and final goods trade liberalization in the intermediate good market has a very different effect compared with trade liberalization in the final good market d 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

booms and banking crises banking crises are rare events that break out in the midst of credit intensive booms and bring about deep and long lasting recessions this paper presents a textbook dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to explain these phenomena the model features a nontrivial banking sector where bank heterogeneity gives rise to an interbank market moral hazard and asymmetric information in this market may lead to sudden market freezes banking crises credit crunches and severe financial recessions those recessions follow credit booms and are not necessarily triggered by large exogenous adverse shocks

a macroprudential approach to financial regulation many observers have argued that the regulatory framework in place prior to the global financial crisis was deficient because it was largely microprudential in nature a microprudential approach is one in which regulation is partial equilibrium in its conception and aimed at preventing the costly failure of individual financial institutions by contrast a macroprudential approach recognizes the importance of general equilibrium effects and seeks to safeguard the financial system as a whole in the aftermath of the crisis there seems to be agreement among both academics and policymakers that financial regulation needs to move in a macroprudential direction in this paper we offer a detailed vision for how a macroprudential regime might be designed our prescriptions follow from a specific theory of how modern financial crises unfold and why both an unregulated financial system as well as one based on capital rules that only apply to traditional banks is likely to be fragile we begin by identifying the key market failures at work why individual financial firms acting in their own interests deviate from what a social planner would have them do next we discuss a number of concrete steps to remedy these market failures we conclude the paper by comparing our proposals to recent regulatory reforms in the united states and to proposed global banking reforms

hypercongestion in production correspondences an empirical exploration this empirical contribution reviews the rather limited existing literature measuring congestion in production it first compares current ways to measure congestion using nonparametric specifications of technologies in particular it focuses on the magnitude and incidence of the congestion detected in empirical studies using traditional radial efficiency measures thereafter it shows the limitations of this radial measurement and how alternative measurement schemes may reveal higher amounts of congestion then the new more general methodology of measuring s congestion is presented in particular we first present a numerical example to illustrate the way the s disposable technologies allow to capture more extreme forms of congestion by setting empirically determined upper bounds to the wasting of inputs then an empirical illustration is presented based on an existing sample of data a final section concludes

effective macroprudential policy cross sector substitution from price and quantity measures macroprudential policy is increasingly being implemented worldwide key questions are its effectiveness in influencing bank credit and substitution effects beyond banking our results confirm the expected effects of macroprudential policies on bank credit both for advanced economies and emerging market economies but results also confirm substitution effects towards non bank credit especially in advanced economies reducing the policies effect on total credit quantity restrictions are particularly potent in constraining bank credit but also cause the strongest substitution effects policy implications indicate a need to extend macroprudential policy beyond banking especially in advanced economies

a model of capital and crises we develop a model in which the capital of the intermediary sector plays a critical role in determining asset prices the model is cast within a dynamic general equilibrium economy and the role for intermediation is derived endogenously based on optimal contracting considerations low intermediary capital reduces the risk bearing capacity of the marginal investor we show how this force helps to explain patterns during financial crises the model replicates the observed rise during crises in sharpe ratios conditional volatility correlation in price movements of assets held by the intermediary sector and fall in riskless interest rates

intermediary asset pricing abstract we model the dynamics of risk premia during crises in asset markets where the marginal investor is a financial intermediary intermediaries face an equity capital constraint risk premia r

optimal monetary and macroprudential policy in a currency union abstract the financial crisis proved strikingly that financial frictions play a crucial role for system risk and policymakers have overlooked financial stability the obvious candidate for addressing financial stability is macroprudential policy in this paper we study the optimal ramsey monetary and macroprudential policy mix in a currency union in the case of different kinds of aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks the monetary and macroprudential instruments are modeled as independent tools with a union wide macroprudential tool full stabilization on the aggregate level is possible but welfare losses due to fluctuations in relative variables prevail with country specific macroprudential tools full stabilization of shocks is always possible but as a rule not optimal evaluating the performance of different policy regimes shows that the additional welfare gains from having country specific macroprudential tools are small and vanish as the ability of the central bank to commit decreases

monetary policy and risk taking abstract we assess the effects of monetary policy on bank risk to verify the existence of a risk taking channel monetary expansions inducing banks to assume more risk we first present var evidence confirming that this channel exists and is particularly significant on the bank funding side then to rationalize this evidence we build a macroeconomic model where banks subject to runs endogenously choose their funding structure deposits vs capital and risk level a monetary expansion increases bank leverage and risk in turn higher bank risk in steady state increases asset price volatility and reduces equilibrium output

the role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission the recent financial crisis has stimulated theoretical and empirical research on the propagation mechanisms underlying business cycles in particular on the role of financial frictions many issues concerning the interactions between banking and monetary policy forced policy makers to redefine economic policies and motivated macroeconomists to focus on the implications of financial intermediation constraints for asset price fluctuations the behavior of non financial firms households governments and in turn for real macroeconomic performance this paper surveys research on the role of financial intermediaries and financial frictions in the transmission of monetary policy and discusses how to design both the new banking regulatory and supervisory structures and monetary policy in order to stabilize the economy it also serves as an introduction to this special issue

mortgage arrears regulation and institutions cross country evidence abstract using a newly constructed database for 26 countries over 2000 2014 we analyze cross country and within country differences in mortgage arrears we find that restrictive macro prudential policies in particular lower regulatory loan to value ratios are significantly associated with a lower share of mortgage arrears in total residential debt likewise better institutions are related with lower delinquency rates both directly and by enhancing the impact of macro prudential policies and the right to recourse we also find that the effect of macro prudential policies is conditioned by several mortgage market characteristics such as the maturity of loans interest rate fixity and tax deductibility of interest payments

globalization outsourcing and wage inequality there is considerable debate over whether international trade has contributed to the declining economic fortunes of less skilled workers one issue that has become lost in the current discussion is how firms respond to import competition and how these responses in turn are transmitted to the labor market in previous work we have argued that outsourcing by which we mean the import of intermediate inputs by domestic firms has contributed to an increase in the relative demand for skilled labor in the united states if firms respond to import competition from low wage countries by moving non skill intensive activities abroad then trade will shift employment towards skilled workers within industries in this paper we extend our previous work by combining new import data from the revised nber trade database with disaggregated data on input purchases from the census of manufactures we construct industry by industry estimates of outsourcing for the period 1972 1990 and reexamine whether outsourcing has contributed to an increase in relative demand for skilled labor our main finding is that outsourcing can account for 31 51 of the increase in the relative demand for skilled labor that occurred in u s manufacturing industries during the 1980s compared to our previous estimate of 15 33 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

how does credit supply respond to monetary policy and bank minimum capital requirements abstract we use data on uk banks minimum capital requirements to study the interaction of monetary policy and capital requirement regulation uk banks were subject to both time varying capital requirements and changes in interest rate policy tightening of either capital requirements or monetary policy reduces the supply of lending lending by large banks reacts substantially to capital requirement changes but not to monetary policy changes lending by small banks reacts to both there is little evidence of interaction between these two policy instruments the differences in the responses of small and large banks identify important distributional consequences within the financial system of these two policy instruments finally our findings do not corroborate theoretical models that raise concerns about complex interactions between monetary policy and macro prudential variation in capital requirements

surface mining of coal efficiency of us interior mines in this paper the relative efficiency in surface mining of us interior coal is investigated a nonparmetric non stochasitic method is applied to 186 observations and esch firm s efficiency is calculated relative to the piecewise llinesr frontier technology in adition three sources of inefficiency are identified namely scale congestion and purely technical inefficiency the outcome of the study shows among other things that on the average captive mines are more efficient than non captive mines and that unionized mines are more efficient than non unionized mines

macroprudential policies and housing prices a new database and empirical evidence for central eastern and southeastern europe several countries in central eastern and southeastern europe used a rich set of prudential instruments during the recent credit and housing boom and bust cycles we construct a comprehensive database of these policy measures covering 16 countries at a quarterly frequency we use this database to investigate whether the policy measures had an impact on housing price inflation the measures that appeared to be effective were capital measures minimum capital adequacy ratio maximum ratio of lending to households to share capital and nonstandard liquidity measures marginal reserve requirements mrrs on foreign funding mrrs linked to credit growth

tools for managing financial stability risks from capital inflows abstract we examine whether macroprudential policies and capital controls can enhance financial stability in the face of the risks typically associated with large capital inflows we construct new indices of foreign currency fx related prudential measures domestic prudential measures and financial sector specific capital controls for 51 emerging market economies over the period 1995 2008 our results indicate that both capital controls and fx related prudential measures are associated with a lower proportion of fx lending in total domestic bank credit and with a lower proportion of portfolio debt in total external liabilities other prudential policies appear to help restrain the intensity of aggregate credit booms experience from the global financial crisis suggests that prudential and capital control policies in place during the boom enhanced economic resilience during the bust

capital regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks optimizing banks subject to runs are introduced in a macro model to study the transmission of monetary policy and its interplay with bank capital regulation when banks are risky a monetary expansion and a positive productivity shock increase bank leverage and risk risk based capital requirements amplify the cycle and are welfare detrimental within a class of simple policy rules the best combination includes mildly anticyclical capital ratios as in basel iii and a response of monetary policy to asset prices or bank leverage

rent shifting export subsidies with an imported intermediate product abstract this paper examines the implications of foreign or domestic imperfect competition in intermediate goods supply for strategic trade policy assuming cournot competition an export subsidy aimed at shifting rents from foreign to domestic final good producers may also shift rents to foreign suppliers weakening the incentive for the subsidy however the incentive for a subsidy tends to increase if the intermediate good industry is purely domestic or if the industry is purely foreign but the subsidy reduces the price of the imported input alternative rent shifting policies a production subsidy and an import tariff applied to the input are also considered