urbanization and poverty reduction the role of rural diversification and secondary towns a rather unique panel tracking more than 3 300 individuals from households in rural kagera tanzania during 1991 4 2010 shows that about one in two individuals households who exited poverty did so by transitioning from agriculture into the rural nonfarm economy or secondary towns only one in seven exited poverty by migrating to a large city although those moving to a city experienced on average faster consumption growth further analysis of a much larger cross country panel of 51 developing countries cannot reject that rural diversification and secondary town development lead to more inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization indications are that this follows because more of the poor find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns than to distant cities the development discourse would benefit from shifting beyond the rural urban dichotomy and focusing instead more on how best to urbanize and develop the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns

housing prices and the savings of renters abstract this paper studies the effects of housing prices on the net worth of young households because prospective homeowners must accumulate down payments a change in housing prices can change their savings patterns theoretically the effect of increases in house prices on savings is ambiguous because households can increase their saving to afford the larger down payment or decrease their saving because they have chosen to delay or forego purchasing a house using data from the 1984 panel study of income dynamics 27 i show that empirically the effect of increased housing prices on saving is positive and quite large relative to the savings of young households young renter households living in cities with high housing prices have more net worth than those living in cities with lowering housing prices controlling for both the income of the households as well as the per capita income of the city in which they live

housing choices and uncertainty the impact of stochastic events abstract in our model a household recognizes that family size is stochastic when making its tenure and housing consumption decisions it also recognizes that initial choices constrain later behavior because they affect the amount of savings simulations of the model show that housing consumption and the duration of stay in a residence are sensitive to whether the realization of the stochastic event is the expected value based on this observation we suggest that empirical housing studies should include both the expected and realized values of stochastic explanatory variables we find few behavioral responses to changes in the variance of an uncertain event even though increased uncertainty is passed through to after tax income and the user cost of owning a notable exception is that if a household knows that a change in an influential variable will occur but it does not know the direction of change it is more likely to rent initially

permanent income hedonic prices and demand for housing new evidence abstract housing demand is examined by looking quite specifically at the income and price variables based on individual household data permanent and transitory incomes are computed through instrumental variables related to human and nonhuman wealth a price is constructed by spatially varying hedonic techniques separation of measured income into permanent and transitory components substantially improves the predictive power of the housing demand estimation and leads to demand elasticities of 1 and 1 with respect to permanent income and price the permanent income elasticity is roughly twice the measured income elasticity

the dynamics of real estate prices institute of university of i business and v california at i economic research berkeley fisher center for real estate and urban economics p working paper series working paper no 88 151 the dynamics of real estate prices by these papers are preliminary in nature their purpose is to i e z i d 2f iz e ey bradford case are nottobccited ortluotedin john mq quigley any publication without the ex press permission of the author walter a haas school of business

poverty under the kuznets process the object of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of poverty indices during the course of development since development is a complex process one cannot hope to capture in a single model all its different facets thus for example the famous lewis 1954 model although it highlights the role of surplus labour in fixing the supply price of labour to the industrial sector assumes identical real incomes for workers in the rural and urban sectors so that it is not rich enough to provide a vehicle for analysing inequality or poverty an alternative model which also focuses on the transfer of population from the rural to the urban sector in the course of development but nevertheless permits the analysis of distributional change is that due to kuznets 1955 in the simplest version of the kuznets process the population is seen as composed of two distributions a high mean income but high inequality distribution in the urban sector and a low mean income and low inequality distribution in the rural sector and the process of development is characterised as an increase in the population share of the urban sector it is from the workings of such a process that kuznets 1955 hypothesised his famous inverse u relation between inequality and development which we have analysed elsewhere anand and kanbur 1981a our object here is to extend this analysis to an investigation of poverty under the kuznets process while the kuznets model permits an analysis of distributional change it suffers from the drawback that it does not contain an adequate explanation of how and why the population shift takes place we will take up this point later on in this paper where a model of migration is presented which does indeed rationalise the kuznets process section i sets up the kuznets process formally and analyses the behaviour of two classes of poverty indices section ii traces the poverty implications of the todaro 1969 model of migration and arrives at conclusions somewhat different from those of fields 1979 section iii winds up the paper

transaction taxes in a search model of the housing market abstract we incorporate transaction taxes in a housing market search model with endogeneous house prices and show that these taxes unambiguously create lock in effects that reduce welfare the lock in effects are larger at low vacancy rates seller taxes raise prices and buyer taxes lower them and this asymmetry helps to explain the differences in the welfare effects of the two taxes lock in effects are smaller with a buyer tax since the price reduction dampens the negative effect on search effort caused by the tax

intergenerational transfers borrowing constraints and saving behavior evidence from the housing market abstract we examine the effects of intergenerational transfers on saving behavior by analyzing transfers targeted to first time home purchases transfer recipients have a shorter time to save for a down payment of 9 20 for each dollar of transfer received total savings falls by 29 40 cents and the down payment rises by 61 71 cents transfer recipients increase the value of the home purchased but by an amount that is much lower than possible if the transfer were fully leveraged in addition transfers appear to help households achieve certain down payment thresholds that give favorable mortgage terms

poverty decline agricultural wages and non farm employment in rural india 1983 2004 the authors analyze five rounds of national sample survey data covering 1983 1987 8 1993 4 1999 0 and 2004 5 to explore the relationship between rural diversification and poverty poverty in rural india declined at a modest rate during this period the authors provide region level estimates that illustrate considerable geographic heterogeneity in this progress poverty estimates correlate well with region level data on changes in agricultural wage rates agricultural labor remains the preserve of the uneducated and also to a large extent of the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes although agricultural labor grew as a share of total economic activity over the first four rounds it had fallen back to the levels observed at the beginning of the survey period by 2004 this all india trajectory masks widely varying trends across states during this period the rural non farm sector grew modestly mainly between the last two survey rounds regular non farm employment remains largely associated with education levels and social status that are rare among the poor however casual labor and self employment in the non farm sector reveal greater involvement by disadvantaged groups in 2004 than in the preceding rounds the implication for poverty is not immediately clear the poor may be pushed into low return casual non farm activities due to lack of opportunities in the agricultural sector rather than being pulled by high returns offered by the non farm sector econometric estimates reveal that expansion of the non farm sector is associated with falling poverty via two routes a direct impact on poverty that is likely due to a pro poor marginal incidence of non farm employment expansion and an indirect impact attributable to the positive effect of non farm employment growth on agricultural wages the analysis also confirms the important contribution to rural poverty reduction from agricultural productivity availability of land and consumption levels in proximate urban areas

housing tenure and labor market impacts the search goes on abstract we develop two search theoretic models emphasizing firm entry to examine the oswald hypothesis the idea that homeownership is linked to inferior labor market outcomes and compare their predictions to three extant theories the five models have surprisingly different predictions about the labor market at both the aggregate and micro levels using a suitable instrumental variable strategy we estimate both micro and aggregate level regression models of wages and unemployment and compare the estimates to those predictions we find that while homeowners are less likely to be unemployed they also have lower wages all else equal compared to renters in addition higher regional homeownership rates are associated with a greater probability of individual worker unemployment and higher wages the outcome of a horserace between our new search theoretic models is mixed the wage posting model predicts observed unemployment impacts while a bargaining variant does a better job explaining observed wages and aggregate labor market outcomes overall we conclude that firm behavior is important for understanding the labor market impacts of homeownership because this is the case regional homeownership rates are not good instruments for individual tenure choice in empirical work and while individual homeowners may have inferior labor market outcomes as compared to renters from the viewpoint of society higher homeownership rates may result in greater job creation and overall production among other benefits

the impact of transaction costs and the expected length of stay on homeownership abstract economic theory suggests that an increase in the expected length of stay in a dwelling increases the probability of a household choosing to own a house rather than rent this hypothesis is derived from recognition that there are substantial transaction costs associated with homeownership and increased expected time in the home reduces the annualized transaction cost using a military data set we confirm that expected length of stay in a dwelling and the transaction costs of selling are very important to the ownership decision our best estimate of the transaction costs of selling a home are the sum of 3 of house value and 4 of household earnings

allocation inflexibilities female labor supply and housing assets accumulation are women working to pay the mortgage this article uses data from the 1986 canadian family expenditures survey to estimate a life cycle consistent model of household labor supply and commodity demand that incorporates a mortgage qualification constraint based on earnings both the parametric and nonparametric implications of the model suggest that the labor supply of a nontrivial percentage of married women is constrained by mortgage commitments the results of generalized selectivity models of female labor force participation and labor supply show that the positive effect of a high debt service ratio exceeds the negative effect of young children

measuring the importance of location in house price appreciation abstract this paper examines the variation in the rates of price appreciation within an individual metropolitan market a methodology is developed to examine the locational variation in house price changes in dade county miami florida from 1971 to 1992 house price appreciation appears to be somewhat spatially related that is it varies by municipality with distance from the cbd with local changes in population and housing units and by ethnic mix however these relationships have minimal explanatory power controlling for the census tract group location of each home explains only around 12 of the residual variation in the appreciation of individual homes that is not explained by metropolitan wide changes in house prices the effect of tract group location appears to be dominated by the idiosyncratic influences of individual homes and their immediate environments

tax subsidies and household saving evidence from canada targeted tax based saving incentives can be a powerful tool for promoting household and national saving this study examines the effect of the cancellation of the registered home ownership savings plan rhosp a canadian tax subsidized saving program on household saving the cancellation provides exogenous variation in eligibility for the subsidy that is uncorrelated with householdspecific heterogeneity in saving behavior the empirical analysis suggests that the subsidy had a substantial impact on saving each dollar contributed to the program represented 56 93 and 20 57 cents of new household and national saving respectively

equity and time to sale in the real estate market evidence from the boston condominium market of the early 1990s reveals that an owner s equity position determines his experience as a seller an owner of a property with a high loan to value ratio sets a higher asking price has a higher expected time on the market and if he sells receives a higher price than an owner with proportionately less debt the down payment requirement for purchasers but not incumbent owners provides a simple explanation for this phenomenon among owner occupants the results provide supporting evidence for equity based aggregate theories of price volume movements in the housing market copyright 1997 by american economic association

the tenure transition decision for elderly homeowners abstract there exists evidence of a sizable shift of elderly households away from homeownership the paper explores two sets of potential determinants of this decision one set derives from the life cycle hypothesis a second set is intended to apply to households that do not conform to the predictions of life cycle theory the results from estimating a tenure transition likelihood function provide some support for each set of explanations in particular they suggest that it is premature to dismiss the role of life cycle hypothesis behavior in explaining the decision of elderly households to terminate homeownership

rehabilitation decisions in rental housing an empirical analysis abstract housing policy makers show increased interest in encouraging rehabilitation of the existing housing stock but little is known about what factors influence the decision to invest particularly in rental housing making policy design difficult this paper presents an empirical analysis of individual landlords housing rehabilitation decisions in one housing market the analysis tests hypotheses about the impacts of detailed neighborhood structure and site characteristics on each owner s investment activity findings support the general hypothesis that economic returns to investment have a major effect on rehabilitation decisions identify some other important circumstances and suggest which among many specific policy levers should be effective

estimating the consumption and investment demands for housing and their effect on housing tenure status theoretical work suggests that families live in owner occupied housing if their investment demand for housing exceeds their consumption demand for housing using household data from the 1983 survey of consumer finances the authors test this theory by estimating an ordered probit model of whether families rent without owning property rent while owning property other than their home own their home without owning other properties or own their home in addition to other properties for owner occupiers who own additional property both the investment and consumption demands are directly observed enabling the authors to separately identify these functions copyright 1994 by mit press

do council housing policies reduce migration between regions data from the 1973 general household survey of great britain are used to examine whether the council house system which currently provides a dwelling for one british family in every three tends to discourage long distance migration controls are introduced for various socioeconomic variables and the importance of occupation sector of employment age and education in explaining migration is discussed comparisons are also made between local movements and long distance migration the findings indicate that over longer distances council tenants have much lower migration rates than owner occupiers

low income homeownership american dream or delusion summary this paper is a critical analysis of recent us policy to promote low income homeownership it examines the ideology and assumptions buttressing this policy evidence on the effects of low income homeownership and the viability of homeownership as a strategy for low income families evidence suggests that the prospect for sustained growth in low income homeownership may be limited research does not provide uniform support for it as a tool for asset accumulation neighbourhood economic development or other social and political goals alleged effects of homeownership may be artefacts of self selection and the conflation of homeownership with unobserved characteristics coincident with buying homes what homeownership does and why are not well understood because of difficulties disentangling what homeownership means the elevation of low income homeownership to its current status has deflected political attention away from alternative policies for affordable housing

industrial centralization in indonesia in certain situations economic liberalization policies can increase the degree of spatial centralization of resources and spatial concentration of manufacturing in large metropolitan areas in addition historical patterns of location make it difficult to alter the degree of centralization this article explores these issues by specifying and estimating a nested logit model of industrial location of manufacturing activity in java focusing on the unincorporated sector the results indicate that plants strongly prefer locations with mature plants in related industries which offer a built up stock of local knowledge in addition the 1983 liberalization in indonesia was associated with increased centralization of the unincorporated sector although the liberalization gave unincorporated firms better access to government and other centralized services firms needed to centralize to take advantage of these opportunities because the bureaucratic process is centralized and communications are poor the relative increased growth of the corporate sector following liberalization may also have helped to further draw unincorporated plants into centralized locations

a debt owing democracy the political impact of housing market recession at the british general election of 1992 the 1992 british general election took place in the context of a severe housing recession which hit hardest in those regions from which the government usually drew much of its electoral support the slump notwithstanding however the government went on to win its fourth successive election victory the paper investigates the impact of the housing recession on the geography of the vote at the 1992 general election party fortunes were linked to local housing market conditions and the failure of the housing market was a factor in reducing support for the government negative equity is identified as a particularly important problem in this regard

housing decisions of american youth abstract prior studies of household tenure choice have not accounted for possible simultaneity with household formation and labor supply decisions we address these methodological issues and introduce new measures of the relative cost of homeowning and potential earnings capacity we also estimate the demand for the quantity of owner occupied housing accounting for the limitation of the sample to those choosing to live alone and be homeowners potential earnings and housing rental costs affect young adults decisions of whether to live alone as single or married or with parents or some other group of adults tenure choice is influenced by wealth the relative cost of homeowning and a number of demographic variables housing demand depends on owner costs elasticity near 0 5 and potential earnings elasticity near 0 5

home ownership and unemployment in the us in this paper we scrutinise oswald s evidence that home ownership and unemployment are correlated across the us states in order to abstract from state fixed effects in levels we analyse the cross sectional variation in changes in home ownership and unemployment rates between 1970 and 1990 after duplicating nearly oswald s result we illustrate the importance of weighting the state observations by the fraction of total us households in 1970 that resided in the respective states and of abstracting from the ageing of the population between 1970 and 1990 this causes oswald s correlation to to disappear secondly we estimate the relationship for six different age classes and for household heads and total population we find that the relationship is non existent for both young households and old households but exists for middle aged households young households have accumulated little wealth and have had less time to become attached to the geographical area than middle aged households and thus are more

cross tenure differences in home maintenance and appreciation this paper investigates the relative maintenance levels of owner and renter occupied housing by examining their short and long run appreciation rates we modify the standard repeat sales estimation procedure to test whether owner occupied housing appreciates faster than renter occupied housing this procedure holds constant all structural factors except for aging hence appreciation is estimated net of physical depreciation i e routine aging deficient and deferred maintenance we find only weak evidence to support the notion that long term rates of appreciation and maintenance levels are substantially different between owner and renter occupied housing

an analysis of female labor supply housing demand and the saving rate in japan abstract the paper considers household savings the labor supply of married women and the demand for housing within a unified framework using the cross section data with 8 000 observations we estimate the saving and labor supply functions by the method which takes explicitly into account a change in tenure choice our results show for example that a rise in land price raises the saving rate for those who keep housing purchase plans but lowers it among those who give up the plans we also discuss the implications of these findings for the aggregate saving rate in japan

interest rate variations mortgage prepayments and household mobility the volatility of interest rates and the deregulation of the mortgage lending sector have meant that many homeowners also own mortgages at terms more favorable than current interest rates this paper presents a model of residential mobility decisions and an empirical analysis that evaluates the importance of the ownership of these mortgages upon the mobility of homeowners the results based upon proportional and nonproportional hazard models indicate that these effects are quite large the empirical analysis distinguishes between different regulatory regimes that govern the assumption of existing mortgages and indicates the implications of these findings for the pricing and valuation of mortgage backed securities copyright 1987 by mit press

capital gains taxation and residential mobility in sweden abstract theoretical studies have shown that capital gains taxes in the housing market may create lock in effects but so far no empirical evidence has been presented regarding the size of these effects for a panel of swedish house owners in 1984 1990 we show that lock in effects only appear for households with income reductions the size of these lock in effects crucially depends on the magnitude of the income loss the theoretical model and features of the swedish tax system imply that lock in effects depend on the degree of mismatch in the current residence and whether the households buy up or buy down

the developing world is poorer than we thought but no less successful in the fight against poverty a new data set on national poverty lines is combined with new price data and almost 700 household surveys to estimate absolute poverty measures for the developing world we find that 25 of the population lived in poverty in 2005 as judged by what poverty typically means in the world s poorest countries this is higher than past estimates substantial overall progress is still indicated the corresponding poverty rate was 52 in 1981 but progress was very uneven across regions the trends over time and regional profile are robust to various changes in methodology though precise counts are more sensitive

how property markets determine welfare outcomes an equilibrium sorting model analysis of local environmental interventions this paper examines the pivotal role played by property markets in determining the magnitude and distribution of welfare changes resulting from localised environmental change we address that issue using an equilibrium sorting model esm calibrated by way of example to the circumstances of a road infrastructure project in the english town of polegate previous esm research has tended to assume that all households rent property from a fixed property stock the narrative that arises from those models concerns environmental gentrification wherein access to environmentally improved locations is appropriated by the relatively wealthy through their ability to out compete the less wealthy in the rental property market our research shows that to be only part of a much more complex story we develop a model that extends the sophistication with which esms replicate property market dynamics allowing for households to choose whether to rent or purchase their home and introducing greater realism into housing supply responses to changing market conditions our research shows that property markets redistribute welfare gains across the population in complex ways in which tenure choice and housing supply constraints play central roles

tenure choice and expected mobility a synthesis abstract this study employs a joint logit probability model to estimate the effects of a vector of independent variables on the household s current tenure choice and expected mobility which are hypothesized to be simultaneously determined in the empirical analysis it was found that the coefficient on the endogenous variables tenure choice and expected mobility is the most highly significant of all the coefficients estimated in addition in previous analyses the age of the household head has always exhibited a highly significant positive effect on the probability of ownership however in this analysis it is demonstrated that this age variable was acting as a proxy for the expected mobility and wealth of the household

the allocation of capital between residential and nonresidential uses taxes inflation and capital market constraints we have constructed a simple two sector model of the demand for housing and corporate capital economic growth and an increase in the inflation rate were then simulated with a number of model variants the model and simulation experiments illustrate both the tax bias in favor of housing and the manner in which the increase in inflation between 1965 and 1978 magnified it the existence of capital market constraints offsets the bias against corporate capital but it introduces a sharp inefficient reallocation of housing from less wealthy constrained households to wealthy households who do not have gains on mortgages and are not financially constrained

the dispersion of us state unemployment rates the role of market and non market equilibrium factors partridge m d and rickman d s 1997 the dispersion of us state unemployment rates the role of market and nonmarket equilibrium factors reg studies 31 593 607 european nations particularly the uk have been observed to have persistent dispersion in regional unemployment rates the dispersion is often hypothesized to be caused by centralized collective bargaining and government policies that limit regional labour market adjustments although the us labour market is considered more exible possessing higher rates of labour mobility and less government mandates there also is persistent dispersion in us state unemployment rates this paper investigates the factors that underlie the persistent dispersion in us state unemployment rates the factors examined include amenities crime education home ownership and residency patterns industry composition and international migration partridge m d et rickman d s 1997 la dispersion des taux de chomage aux etats unis sur le plan des etats l importa

explaining the vote for slow growth a model of equilibrium rent determination is developed to incorporate both the scarcity and amenity effects associated with limits to new housing construction in a non open city where demand for housing has increased implications of the model are tested with data from california cities to determine which factors increase the probability that a local growth control ballot measure is proposed or passed it is found that limits to new housing development occur with greater frequency in communities where fewer substitute cities exist and where certain socioeconomic characteristics predominate but not where current population densities or growth are high

temperature changes household consumption and internal migration evidence from tanzania large rural urban wage gaps observed in many developing countries are suggestive of barriers to migration that keep potential migrants in rural areas using long panel data spanning nearly two decades i study the extent to which migration rates are constrained by liquidity constraints in rural tanzania the analysis begins by quantifying the impact of weather variation on household welfare the results show how household consumption co moves with temperature rendering households vulnerable to local weather events these temperature induced income shocks are then found to inhibit long term migration among men thus preventing them from tapping into the opportunities brought about by geographical mobility

poverty reduction without economic growth explaining brazil s poverty dynamics 1985 2004 brazil s slow pace of poverty reduction over the last two decades reflects both low growth and a low growth elasticity of poverty reduction using gdp data disaggregated by state and sector for a twenty year period this paper finds considerable variation in the poverty reducing effectiveness of growth across sectors across space and over time growth in the services sector was substantially more poverty reducing than was growth in either agriculture or industry growth in industry had very different effects on poverty across different states and its impact varied with initial conditions related to human development and worker empowerment the determinants of poverty reduction changed around 1994 positive growth rates and a greater absolute elasticity with respect to agricultural growth contributed to faster poverty reduction but because there was so little of it economic growth played a relatively small role in accounting for brazil s poverty reduction between 1985 and 2004 the taming of hyperinflation in 1994 and substantial expansions in social security and social assistance transfers beginning in 1988 accounted for a larger share of the overall reduction in poverty

equilibrium prices in the bertrand and cournot oligopolies abstract the equilibrium prices for the bertrand and cournot oligopolies with product differentiation are compared if all firms have linear demand and cost functions and if in addition the jacobian matrix of the demand functions has a dominant negative diagonal the cournot equilibrium prices are not lower than the bertrand ones the general condition for the comparison of the bertrand and cournot equilibrium prices can be derived even if the nonlinearity is involved in the cost and or demand functions

racial discrimination and redlining in cities we propose a model where employers have two types of prejudices racial and spatial discriminations because of the rst one black workers have less chance than white workers to nd a job because of the second one workers living closer to the city center have less chances than suburban workers to nd a job in this context we show that depending on the importance of access costs to employment centers two urban equilibria may emerge in equilibrium 1 the access cost for blacks is quite large black and white workers are totally separated while in equilibrium 2 the access cost for blacks is relatively small workers are separated by their employment status the unemployed versus the employed we then study the labor market equilibrium and its interactions with the land market we show in particular that both race and space matter to explain high unemployment rates among blacks

the effects of location and sectoral components of economic growth on poverty evidence from indonesia abstract in this paper we investigate the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction by differentiating growth and poverty into their sectoral composition and urban rural location using data from indonesia we find that rural services growth reduces poverty in all sectors and locations however urban services growth has the largest effect on poverty in most sectors finally we also find that rural agriculture growth strongly reduces poverty in rural areas the largest contributor to poverty in indonesia this implies that while agriculture growth in rural areas still plays a major role in reducing poverty policies that enable strong growth in the services sector in both urban and rural areas would expedite poverty reduction

rural urban linkages public investment and transport costs the case of tanzania summary the economy of tanzania like those of many other sub saharan african countries displays strong geographic and locational disparities we develop a three location spatial applied general equilibrium model calibrated to the 2001 tanzanian social accounting matrix to examine the impact of various public investment programs on household welfare across this diverse geography in which production and consumption are locationally specific and transport costs support equilibrium price differences across locations we examine how different public investment packages combined with reforms in the transport sector alter the equilibrium structure and location of economic activity the choice of financing arrangement matters for welfare since tax incidence relative price and real exchange rate movements are non neutral we show that the distributional consequences of alternative investment programs may matter more in terms of household welfare than the direct consequences of targeting investment to particular sectors or locations for instance under some financing scenarios interventions that aid agriculture may lead to decreases in the welfare of the rural unskilled labor force because the financing mechanisms create distortions that effectively skew the terms of trade sufficiently powerfully against the rural unskilled as to outweigh the direct welfare enhancing effects of the public investment we also note that welfare gains are generated by the movement of rural workers out of quasi subsistence agriculture into higher productivity jobs in other sectors and locations

the mortgage interest deduction and its impact on homeownership decisions abstract this paper examines the impact of the combined u s state and federal mortgage interest deduction mid on homeownership attainment using data from 1984 to 2007 and exploiting variation in the subsidy arising from changes in the mid within and across states over time we test whether capitalization of the mid into house prices offsets the positive effect on homeownership we find that the mid boosts homeownership attainment only of higher income households in less tightly regulated housing markets in more restrictive places an adverse effect exists the mid is an ineffective policy to promote homeownership and improve social welfare

a note on the benefits of homeownership abstract this brief note adds to recent work that attempts to identify externalities associated with homeownership the results suggest that some of the homeownership effect found by green and white is driven by family characteristics associated with homeownership especially residential stability however as much as homeownership increases residential stability it appears to be correlated with higher school attainment attempts to control for endogeneity cannot eliminate this finding

homeownership and investment in risky assets abstract this paper uses the 1989 survey of consumer finances to show that committed expenditures related to homeownership cause agents to hold their financial assets in a safe form this work follows theoretical results by fratantoni 5 which show that the mortgage commitment leads to reduced risky asset holding and empirical results by guisoet al 7 which show that agents with uncertain labor income hold fewer risky assets i find that doubling the median homeowner s mortgage payment income ratio leads to a 15 decrease in the risky share

prices parents and young people s household formation an economic theory of young people s decision to live apart from parents is presented and used to structure econometric analyses of the processes of leaving the parental home and returning to it which employ data from the british household panel survey for the first half of the 1990s the econometric estimates support the predictions of the theory in particular tighter housing markets as indicated by higher regional relative house prices significantly retard home leaving especially the formation of partnerships and encourage returns to the parental home young people with larger current income are more likely to leave but less likely to return to the parental home

spatial lock in do falling house prices constrain residential mobility abstract falling house prices have caused numerous homeowners to suffer capital losses those with little home equity may be prevented from moving because of imperfections in housing finance markets the proceeds from the sale of their home may be insufficient to repay their mortgage and provide a down payment on a new home a data set of mortgages is used to examine the magnitude of these constraints estimates show that average mobility would have been 24 higher after 3 years had house prices not declined and after 4 years it would have been 33 higher among those with high initial loan to value ratios the differences are even greater

consumption and investment motives in housing wealth accumulation a french study abstract the dual motives of housing behavior consumption and investment make the analysis of housing purchases quite difficult nevertheless it is better to refer to a model that keeps the two dimensional aspect of housing henderson and ioannides am econ rev 73 93 111 1983 in the absence of institutional considerations this model predicts that it is the difference between the investment demand for housing and the consumption demand that explains decisions to purchase dwellings for owner occupation and for renting out we have tested the model on the french data of the survey actifs financiers 1992 results show that the difference between the two demands cannot in itself explain housing purchases transaction costs the tax system the public aid policies for home ownership and other market imperfections are inadequately dealt with moreover estimation and identification of housing demand functions both for consumption and investment tend to show that there are portfolio motives in the factors that determine housing demand for owner occupation french households behave in a different way than u s households for them the difference between the two demands for housing explains behavior and consumption motives dominate primary residence purchase ioannides and rosenthal rev econ statist xx 127 141 1994

are african households not leaving agriculture patterns of households income sources in rural sub saharan africa this paper uses comparable income aggregates from 41 national household surveys from 22 countries to explore the patterns of income generation among rural households in sub saharan africa and to compare household income strategies in sub saharan africa with those in other regions the paper seeks to understand how geography drives these strategies focusing on the role of agricultural potential and distance to urban areas specialization in on farm activities continues to be the norm in rural africa practiced by 52 percent of households as opposed to 21 percent of households in other regions regardless of distance and integration in the urban context when agro climatic conditions are favorable farming remains the occupation of choice for most households in the african countries for which the study has geographically explicit information however the paper finds no evidence that african households are on a different trajectory than households in other regions in terms of transitioning to non agricultural based income strategies

residential mobility housing equity and the labour market henley a g 1998 residential mobility housing equity and the labour market economic journal 108 447 414 427

redlining in boston do mortgage lenders discriminate against neighborhoods historically lenders have been accused of redlining minority neighborhoods as well as refusing to lend to minority applicants considerable bank regulation is designed to prevent both actions however the strong correlation between race and neighborhood makes it difficult to distinguish the impact of geographic discrimination from the effects of racial discrimination previous studies have failed to untangle these two influences in part because of severe omitted variable bias the data set in this paper allows the distinct effects of race and geography to be identified and it shows that the evidence for redlining is weak

why are there nimbys an owner occupied home is an un usual asset because it cannot be diversi ed among locations and because it is the onlysizable asset that most owners possess among the unin sured risks of homeownership is devaluation by nearby changes in land use opponents of land use change are called nimbys not in my back yard this article submits that nimbyism is a rational response to the uninsured risks of home ownership it explores the possibilities and draw backs of providing an insurance market to cover such risks it concludes that some progress is being made towards developing such markets jel r52 residents who strenuously oppose devel opment of land in their immediate area are often called nimbys the acronymic per soni cation of the expression not in my backyard the oppositionof neighbors is an importantproblemin americanland use reg ulation itcanfrustrate the implementationof carefully planned residential development locally desired industrial development and placement of the necessary nuisances of ur ban life such as power plants and land lls downs 1994 fischel 1991 nelson 1999 portney 1991 rephann forthcoming nimbys sometimes appear to be irratio nal in theiroppositionto projects in the sense that they express far fetched anxieties or doggedly ght projects whose expected neighborhood effects seem small or even be nign i submit in this note that such anxieties might not be irrational if we consider that most nimbys are homeowners and that homeowners cannot insure their major and often only asset against devaluation by neighborhood effects nimbyism mightbet ter be viewed as a risk averse strategy i con clude with a few notes about how an insur ance market might be developed to head off

a welfare economic analysis of labor market policies in the harris todaro model this paper presents a welfare economic analysis of the benefits of various labor market policies in the harris todaro labor market model the policies considered are a policy of modern sector job creation which i call modern sector enlargement msenl a policy of rural development which i call traditional sector enrichment tsenr and a policy of wage limitation in the urban economy which i call modern sector wage restraint mswr first i analyze the inequality effects of these policies i then perform two welfare economic analyses the first based on summary measures of labor market conditions total labor earnings unemployment inequality of labor incomes and poverty rates and the second based on dominance analysis in the labor market in both cases assuming that the costs are borne elsewhere the results of the welfare analyses are compared and it is shown that tsenr unambiguously increases welfare in the labor market using both approaches the other policies yield ambiguous results and no policy is unambiguously welfare decreasing

the social and private micro level consequences of homeownership abstract this paper reviews the literature that describes the micro level economic and social consequences of homeownership we adopt an interdisciplinary approach and include studies from economics sociology geography political science psychology and other disciplines our focus is on the set of consequences of homeownership in developed countries our list of potential outcomes of homeownership includes the impact on household wealth and portfolio choice mobility labor force participation urban structure and segregation home maintenance political and social activities health demographics self esteem and child outcomes there is substantial evidence that homeownership has important effects on some household behaviors and outcomes however we find that much of the past 30 year s literature on consequences of homeowning is deficient from a theoretical or econometric perspective we suggest solutions and identify research gaps present in the literature

migration and economic mobility in tanzania evidence from a tracking survey this study explores the extent to which migration has contributed to improved living standards of individuals in tanzania using longitudinal data on individuals the authors estimate the impact of migration on consumption growth between 1991 and 2004 the analysis addresses concerns about heterogeneity and unobservable factors correlated with both income changes and the decision to migrate the findings show that migration adds 36 percentage points to consumption growth during a period of considerable growth in consumption these results are robust to numerous tests and alternative specifications unpacking the findings the analysis finds that moving out of agriculture is correlated with much higher growth than staying in agriculture although growth is always higher in any sector if one physically moves economic mobility is strongly linked to geographic mobility the puzzle is why more people do not move if returns to geographic mobility are high the evidence is consistent with models in which exit barriers are set by home communities through social and family norms that prevent migration of certain categories of people

aging and the income value of housing wealth abstract the potential of reverse annuity mortgages to increase the current income of the elderly is analyzed we conclude that most low income elderly also have little housing equity in general a reverse annuity mortgage would substantially affect the income only of the single elderly who are very old whose life expectancy is short on the other hand if the transfer were in the form of a lump sum payment rather than an annuity the payment would increase the liquid wealth of most elderly families by a large fraction thus legislation that would facilitate the market for reverse mortgages could improve substantially the financial status of a small proportion of the elderly

the transition to home ownership and the black white wealth gap this paper analyzes differences in the likelihood that black and white families become homeowners by following a sample of black and white renters over time we are able to separately study racial differences in the likelihood of applying for a mortgage and in the likelihood that a mortgage application is accepted although its effect on the race gap in housing transitions is small we find strong evidence that black applicants are almost twice as likely as comparable white households to be rejected even when credit history proxies and measures of household wealth are accounted for we show that the housing transition gap exists primarily because blacks are less likely to apply for mortgages in the first place the analysis suggests that differences in income family structure and in the ability and willingness of parents to provide down payment assistance are the primary reasons for this applications gap we speculate that the portion of the gap that remains unexplained after controlling for income d

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

the economic determinants of young people s household formation the paper derives predictions about the impact of the price of housing young adults income and parental income on the probability that a young adult in the united kingdom lives apart from his her parents it shows that the predicted effect of the price of housing is intimately related to the price elasticity of housing demand it uses longitudinal data on a cohort of britons born in 1958 surveyed in the national child development study to estimate dynamic models of first departure from the parental home and particularly to estimate the impact of housing price on the timing and destination of first departure excerpt

consumption down payments and liquidity constraints one frequently cited explanation for the empirical failure of the orthodox life cycle permanent income hypothesis lc pih is the presence of binding liquidity constraints households inability to borrow and lend at the same interest rate or to borrow the desired quantity can distort household consumption profiles depressing consumption during periods when constraints bind whether or not liquidity constraints bind has important implications for the sensitivity of consumption to fluctuations in income the neutrality of government debt and the structure of taxation despite the potential importance of liquidity constraints in understanding macroeconomic behavior there has been comparatively little research into the effect of specific constraints on consumption one area of consumer behavior where liquidity constraints arguably may be important is in housing decisions and mortgage markets households wishing to own a first home must accumulate a down payment in order to qualify for a mortgage loan currently for conventional mortgages in the united states most lending institutions require between s percent and 20 percent of the purchase price of the home put down in advance of the purchase 2 without access to private gifts or loans many

poverty reduction during the rural urban transformation the role of the missing middle as countries develop they restructure away from agriculture and urbanize but structural transformation and urbanization patterns differ substantially with some countries fostering migration out of agriculture into rural off farm activities and secondary towns and others undergoing rapid agglomeration in mega cities using cross country panel data for developing countries spanning 1980 2004 the analysis in this paper finds that migration out of agriculture into the missing middle the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns yields more inclusive growth patterns and faster poverty reduction than agglomeration in mega cities this suggests that patterns of urbanization deserve much more attention when striving for faster poverty reduction

the composition of growth matters for poverty alleviation this paper contributes to explain the cross country heterogeneity of the poverty response to changes in economic growth it does so by focusing on the structure of output growth the paper presents a two sector theoretical model that clarifies the mechanism through which the sectoral composition of growth and associated labor intensity can affect workers wages and thus poverty alleviation then it presents cross country empirical evidence that analyzes first the differential poverty reducing impact of sectoral growth at various levels of disaggregation and the role of unskilled labor intensity in such differential impact the paper finds evidence that not only the size of economic growth but also its composition matters for poverty alleviation with the largest contributions from labor intensive sectors such as agriculture construction and manufacturing the results are robust to the influence of outliers alternative explanations and various poverty measures

is there a metropolitan bias the relationship between poverty and city size in a selection of developing countries this paper provides evidence from eight developing countries of an inverse relationship between poverty and city size poverty is both more widespread and deeper in very small and small towns than in large or very large cities this basic pattern is generally robust to the choice of poverty line the paper shows further that for all eight countries a majority of the urban poor live in medium small or very small towns moreover it is shown that the greater incidence and severity of consumption poverty in smaller towns is generally compounded by similarly greater deprivation in terms of access to basic infrastructure services such as electricity heating gas sewerage and solid waste disposal we illustrate for one country morocco that inequality within large cities is not driven by a severe dichotomy between slum dwellers and others robustness checks are performed to assess whether the findings in the paper hinge on a specific definition of urban area are driven by differences in the cost of

understanding the tax revolt eight explanations numerous explanations of the tax revolt have been offered since california s adoption of proposition 13 in 1978 unfortunately many of these explanations remain untested or have been tested inappropriately and the explanations are often jumbled together in a fashion that precludes theoretical clarity we extract eight explanations from the literature each of which assumes that the tax revolt is a systematic national phenomenon that is a function of individual level social economic and political factors having tested these explanations by means of a discriminant analysis of data from the 1978 american national election study we find little empirical corroboration for any of them this leads us to consider two alternative research programs one of which interprets the tax revolt within a symbolic politics framework

the evolving role of agriculture in poverty reduction an empirical perspective abstract the role of agriculture in development remains much debated this paper takes an empirical perspective and focuses on poverty as opposed to growth alone the contribution of a sector to poverty reduction is shown to depend on its own growth performance its indirect impact on growth in other sectors the extent to which poor people participate in the sector and the size of the sector in the overall economy bringing together these different effects using cross country econometric evidence indicates that agriculture is significantly more effective in reducing poverty among the poorest of the poor as reflected in the 1 day squared poverty gap it is also up to 3 2 times better at reducing 1 day headcount poverty in low income and resource rich countries including those in sub saharan africa at least when societies are not fundamentally unequal however when it comes to the better off poor reflected in the 2 day measure non agriculture has the edge these results are driven by the much larger participation of poorer households in growth from agriculture and the lower poverty reducing effect of non agriculture in the presence of extractive industries

moving out of poverty in tanzania evidence from kagera abstract this paper uses linked qualitative and quantitative data to explore the growth trajectories of matched households in the kagera region of tanzania finding that agriculture and trade provided the two main routes out of poverty the interplay between initial conditions shocks networks and experiences of life beyond their village determine whether a person moves out of poverty in the following decade

testing the central prediction of housing tenure transition models abstract housing tenure choice is usually assumed to depend on relative tenure specific user costs controlling for the household s lifetime income these models assume perfect capital markets however there is substantial evidence that potential first time homebuyers face significant borrowing constraints this paper proposes a tenure choice model based on tenure transition theory principles that recognizes the existence of both exogenous and endogenous liquidity constraints it predicts that tenure choice depends centrally on a household s liquefiable wealth controlling for the asset price of housing this prediction is tested using household survey data from both the united states and canada

why don t we see poverty convergence average living standards are converging among developing countries and faster growing economies see more progress against poverty yet we do not find poverty convergence countries starting with higher poverty rates do not see higher proportionate rates of poverty reduction the paper tries to explain why analysis of a new dataset suggests that at given mean consumption high initial poverty has an adverse effect on consumption growth and also makes growth less poverty reducing thus for many poor countries the growth advantage of starting out with a low mean is lost due to a high incidence of poverty jel d63 i31 i32 o15

nominal loss aversion housing equity constraints and household mobility evidence from the united states abstract this paper exploits the recent variation in us house prices to examine the effect of equity constraints and nominal loss aversion on household mobility detailed data from the 1985 1996 national longitudinal survey of youth nlsy79 were matched with house price data from 149 metropolitan areas to estimate instrumental variables linear probability and semi parametric proportional hazard models of intra metropolitan mobility household mobility is significantly influenced by nominal loss aversion there is little evidence that low equity because of fallen house prices constrains mobility

beyond agriculture versus non agriculture decomposing sectoral growth poverty linkages in five african countries summary africa s development debate is often cast as agriculture versus non agriculture with agriculture s proponents arguing that agricultural growth is more effective at reducing poverty this dual economy perspective overlooks the heterogeneity within and synergies between these two broad sectors recent studies decompose agriculture into subsectors and find that agricultural growth led by smallholder farmers is even more effective at reducing poverty than larger scale estate farms in contrast few studies estimate subsectoral growth poverty linkages for non agriculture yet we strongly expect for example that growth led by informal traders or foreign owned mining companies will have quite different implications for poverty reduction different perspectives on what constitutes non agriculture might therefore explain divergent views on its relative importance for poverty reduction to address this gap in our understanding we estimate sectoral poverty growth elasticities using economy wide models for five african countries while our estimated elasticities are higher for agriculture than for non agriculture as a whole the extent to which this is true varies considerably across nonagricultural subsectors and across countries we find that the poverty growth elasticities for trade and transport services and manufacturing especially agro processing are often close to and sometimes exceed agriculture s this means that growth led by these nonagricultural subsectors might be as effective as agriculture at reaching the poor this confirms the need for a more nuanced treatment of non agriculture in africa s policy debate and may explain conflicting perspectives on agriculture s role vis a vis non agriculture