the heckscher ohlin samuelson model with implicit contracts in a world with multiplicative production uncertainty and implicit labor contracts we show that the rybczynski theorem retains its validity therefore the quantity version of the heckscher ohlin theorem survives as well we also show that the stolper samuelson theorem may not hold a small increase in the price of the capital intensive good may benefit labor we derive a strong version of the factor price equalization theorem that shows free trade tends to equalize sector specific unemployment rates and sector specific factor prices across countries finally we relate trade patterns to international differences in the degree of risk aversion

the dissent voting behaviour of central bankers what do we really know we examine the determinants of the dissent in central bank boards voting records about monetary policy rates in the czech republic hungary sweden the uk and the us in contrast to previous studies we consider 25 different macroeconomic financial institutional psychological or preference related factors jointly and use bayesian model averaging bma to formally assess the attendant model uncertainty we find that the rate of dissent is between 5 and 20 for the examined central banks our results suggest that most of the examined regressors including factors that capture the effects of inflation and output are not robust determinants of voting dissent this result suggests that unobserved characteristics of central bankers and different communication strategies drive the dissent rather than the level of macroeconomic uncertainty

publicity of debate and the incentive to dissent evidence from the us federal reserve transparency in committee decision making may have clear benefits by making members more accountable to outside observers we consider one potential cost the possibility that publishing records of deliberations will make members more reluctant to offer dissenting opinions we construct a model that compares incentives for members with career concerns to voice dissent when deliberations occur in public or in private we test the model using an original dataset based on deliberations of the federal reserve s federal open market committee asking whether the fomc s 1993 decision to begin releasing transcripts of its meetings has altered incentives for dissent we find evidence that this is indeed the case there has been much recent discussion of the advantages of transparency in agency relationships both in and outside of government while research has attempted to model this issue theoretically there has been less progress with empirical tests a problem due no doubt in large part to the fact that it is difficult to make before and after comparisons of a shift in transparency often no data are available on an agent s actions prior to the establishment of transparency in this article we focus on one specific type of transparency publishing verbatim transcripts of committee meetings and one specific reason why this type of transparency might not be desirable the possibility that the quality of deliberation on a committee will suffer if the deliberations take place in public we develop a theoretical model that helps to identify the potential costs of this type of transparency and we then test the model empirically using an original dataset on deliberations of the federal reserve s federal open market committee fomc our dataset is unique in that it records views expressed by policymakers at fomc meetings and not just their official votes our empirical tests focus in particular on the observed effect of the institutional change that occurred in 1993 when the fomc decided to begin releasing transcripts of its meetings after a delay of five years transparency is a particularly relevant issue in monetary policy because it is commonly argued that when central banks take actions such as publishing macroeconomic forecasts revealing individual votes on monetary policy committees or releasing minutes of meetings this will lead to improved economic outcomes while simultaneously facilitating democratic accountability 1

a long history of fomc voting behavior we devise and apply a method for estimating monetary policy reaction functions for individual members of the federal open market committee fomc of the federal reserve our method uses members votes on the monetary policy directive in fomc meetings as the key source of data on individual preferences the analysis provides a ranking by preference for ease for 84 fomc members who served during the 1966 1996 period

trade offshoring and the invisible handshake abstract we study the effect of globalization on the volatility of wages and worker welfare in a model in which risk is allocated through long run employment relationships the invisible handshake globalization can take two forms international integration of commodity markets i e free trade and international integration of factor markets i e offshoring in a two country two good two factor model we show that free trade and offshoring have opposite effects on rich country workers free trade hurts rich country workers while reducing the volatility of their wages by contrast offshoring benefits them while raising the volatility of their wages we thus formalize but also sharply circumscribe a common critique of globalization

sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate a garch m model abstract the objective of this paper is to employ the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean garch m methodology to investigate the effect of interest rate and its volatility on the bank stock return generation process this framework discards the restrictive assumptions of linearity independence and constant conditional variance in modeling bank stock returns the model presented here allows for shifts in the volatility equation in response to the changes in monetary policy regime in 1979 and 1982 to be estimated arch garch and volatility feed back effects are found to be significant interest rate and interest rate volatility are found to directly impact the first and the second moments of the bank stock returns distribution respectively the latter also affects the risk premia indirectly the degree of persistence in shocks is substantial for all the three bank portfolios and sensitive to the nature of the bank portfolio and the prevailing monetary policy regime

bank s risk taking and ownership structure evidence for economics in transition stage conventional studies assume that inside management plays a major role in corporate governance and argue that foreign institutional investors may lack incentives to monitor invested firms due to their short term profit orientation by utilizing 650 observations of taiwan banks this study examines the effects of specific types of ownership on the risk taking behaviours of banks under differential ownership structures in light of the increasing foreign institution ownership during privatization this article further constructs relative governance strength variables to observe how inside management and foreign institutions interact to affect these banks risk taking the results show that banks with higher inside management ownership and higher government ownership have higher overdue loan and lower capital adequacy ratios banks with higher foreign institution ownership and stronger relative governance strength are associated with lower overdue loans and higher regulatory capital in general the results a

volatility persistence and stock valuations some empirical evidence using garch summary in this paper issues of volatility persistence and the changing risk premium in the stock market are investigated using the garch estimation technique we get a point estimate of the index of relative risk aversion of 4 5 and confirm the existence of changing equity premiums in the us during 1962 1985 the persistence of shocks to the stock return volatility is so high that the data cannot reject a non stationary volatility process specification the results of this paper are consistent with malkiel and pindyck s hypothesis that it is the unforseen rise ini the investment uncertainty during 1974 that causes the market to plunge

conditional risk and return in asian emerging markets evidence from the banking sector previous studies reach no consensus on the relationship between risk and return using data from one market this study argues that the market factor should be noticed in assessing the risk return relationship in a partially integrated emerging market the analysis aims to provide new insight into the nature of the risk return relationship by a conditional factor garch m framework that controls for time series effects to investigate the banking sector in five asian emerging markets of china hong kong indonesia malaysia and taiwan during the period 1995 to 2004 finally the study provides evidence on these relations before and after the asian financial crisis of 1997 the results are generally consistent across the markets and with expectations and have implications for empirical assessments of the risk return relationship and diversification

are two heads better than one monetary policy by committee two experiments were conducted to test the common hypothesis that groups make decisions more slowly than individuals one of these experiments imitates real life monetary policy decisions in both cases the hypothesis is found wanting groups are not slower than individuals in both experiments we also find that group decisions are on average better than individual decisions this holds regardless of whether the groups make decisions by unanimity or majority rule simple mechanical theories of group decisionmaking that the group follows its average player median player or best player do not explain the results group interactions seem to matter

is the mpc s voting record informative about future uk monetary policy it is shown that the voting record of the monetary policy committee of the bank of england helps predict future policy rate changes this result is robust to the inclusion of market participants expectations as measured by the slope of the term structure of money market rates and interest rate futures moreover expectations seem to adjust to the information contained in the voting record which suggests that publishing the minutes of mpc meetings increases the transparency of monetary policy

declining job security this article defines and analyzes job security in the context of implicit contracts designed to overcome incentive problems in the employment relationship contracts of this nature generate predictions concerning the relationship between job security parameters such as worker seniority and sectoral economic conditions and the probability of separations to test these predictions i estimate binomial and multinomial models of job separations using panel study of income dynamics psid data for the years 1976 93 the results are consistent with a decline over time in the incentives to maintain existing employment relationships for male workers and for skilled white collar women

regional influences on fomc voting patterns this paper looks at the monetary policy decisions of the u s federal reserve and asks whether observed voting patterns have been driven entirely by national concerns or whether regional factors have also played a role we find that fed policymakers take into account developments in regional unemployment when casting votes on monetary policy these results are robust to different specifications of the voting equation this research is relevant for the fed and it may also be relevant for europe s fledgling central bank in frankfurt in light of regional differences within the euro area

the effect of implicit contracts on the movement of wages over the business cycle evidence from micro data in this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model from a simple implicit contract model we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions using individual data from the current population survey and the panel study of income dynamics we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility

a variance equality test of the icapm on philippine stocks post asian financial crisis period the study examines whether fama s discrete version of merton s intertemporal capm icapm can explain the negative market risk premium and the cross sectional variability of philippine stock returns after the onset of the asian financial crisis in july 1997 the change in foreign exchange rate in addition to the change in market risk premium is used as a state variable of hedging concern to investors the relationship of fama s multifactor minimum variance mmv portfolio to the markowitz minimum variance mv portfolio is characterized in terms of the equality of the return variances for the same expected return a test due to basak et al 2002 is then used to verify the equality of the return variance of a derived tangency portfolio along the mmv frontier to an mv portfolio with the same sample mean return the results do not reject the icapm during the period covered by the study thus the model provides a plausible explanation both for the cross sectional variability of stock returns and the nega

wages implicit contracts and the business cyle evidence from canadian micro data evidence of macroeconomic conditions impacting the earnings of men in canada in a manner consistent with an implicit contracting framework is found using data from eleven cross sectional surveys spanning the years 1981 1992 the estimates are similar to those found by beaudry and dinardo 1991 using u s data their analysis is extended to incestigate whether the effects of macroeconomic conditions differ by age evidence is found that the wages of young men and men near retirement are most sensitive to changes in the macroeconomic conditions over their job tenure this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

monetary policy preferences of individual fomc members a content analysis of the memoranda of discussion the memoranda of discussion provide detailed records of federal open market committee fomc meeting deliberations procedures are developed for coding the textual data in the memoranda and assessing the reliability of those codings the codings are then used in the estimation of parameters of individual fomc members reaction functions data from the 1970 to 1976 period are employed in the estimation in the future similar methods could be used to analyze newly released transcripts of fomc meetings held after 1976

us versus them mass attitudes toward offshore outsourcing economists have argued that outsourcing is another form of international trade however based on a representative national survey of americans conducted in 2007 and 2009 the distribution of preferences on these two issues appears to be quite different this article examines the origins of attitudes toward outsourcing focusing on the extent to which it reflects 1 the economic vulnerabilities of individuals 2 the information they receive about outsourcing including their subjective understanding of what constitutes outsourcing and 3 noneconomic attitudes toward foreign people and foreign countries the findings emphasize the importance of variations in understandings of the term as well as the highly symbolic nature of attitudes toward this issue individuals who believe the us should distance itself from international affairs more generally who are nationalistic or who feel that members of other ethnic and racial groups within the us are less praiseworthy than their own group tend to have particularly hostile reactions to outsourcing the informational cues people receive are also important influences on their understanding of and attitudes toward outsourcing experimental results further emphasize the symbolic nature of attitudes toward outsourcing taken together the results strongly suggest that attitudes are shaped less by the economic consequences of outsourcing than by a sense of us versus them

majority rule consensus building and the power of the chairman arthur burns and the fomc this paper investigates decision making within the federal open market committee of the federal reserve focusing on the competing pressures of majority rule consensus building and the power of the chairman to undertake this analysis we have constructed an original data set recording desired federal funds rates for each member of the committee over the 1970 78 period our results confirm a disproportionate influence of the chairman in the policy process they also confirm that other voting members of the committee have an impact on policy choices estimates indicate that the chairman exercises 40 to 50 of the voting weight in committee decisions

the sensitivity of bank stock returns to market interest and exchange rate risks abstract this paper presents and estimates a multifactor model of bank stock returns that incorporates market return interest rate and exchange rate risk factors a model of the optimizing behavior of an international banking firm is used to derive the sensitivity coefficients of the alternative factors regression equations are estimated that are based on either actual or unexpected values of the underlying factors with a post october 1979 time dummy variable and with a money center bank dummy variable standard results are obtained for the market and interest rate variables while new results are derived for the exchange rate variable the specific effects of the latter variable are found to be dependent on the time period of observation and the money center status of banks

households vulnerability from trade in vietnam abstract this paper assesses vulnerability from trade in vietnam by presenting an extended version of ligon and schechter s 2003 vulnerability as low expected utility veu measure it uses the vietnam household living standard surveys vhlss panel data covering the period 2002 06 the empirical results show that risk induced vulnerability and heterogeneity in trade exposure matter in determining household overall vulnerability and that this is not linked to the actual manifestation of shocks although it does not represent by any means an argument against free trade this work is relevant for policymaking since it contributes to deepen our knowledge on the subtle links between trade openness and vulnerability and informs us about suitable instruments to accompany it

outsourcing in a global economy we study the determinants of the location of subcontracted activity in a general equilibrium model of outsourcing and trade we model outsourcing as an activity that requires search for a partner and relationship specific investments that are governed by incomplete contracts the extent of international outsourcing depends inter alia on the thickness of the domestic and foreign market for input suppliers the relative cost of searching in each market the relative cost of customizing inputs and the nature of the contracting environment in each country

implicit contracts incentive compatibility and involuntary unemployment this paper considers the enforceability of employment contracts when employees performance cannot be verified in court so that piece rate contracts are not legally enforceable part i shows that there exists a variety of self enforcing implicit contracts modelled as perfect equilibria in a repeated game and characterizes all the wage and performance outcomes that can be implemented implementation requires a strictly positive surplus from employment the form of the contract depending on how this surplus is divided between firm and employee piece rate contracts and contracts with an informally agreed bonus can be made self enforcing but the use of severance pay and bonding does not extend the set of implementable allocations the resulting contracts resemble actual labor contracts more than do the contracts in standard principal agent models part ii analyses market equilibrium with these contracts also modelled as perfect equilibria in a repeated game and shows that many such equilibria exist unfilled vacancies and unemployed workers can co exist despite the existence of contracts that are potentially mutually beneficial for those jobs that are filled any division of the potential surplus is possible so that the market can have at the same time involuntary unemployment and vacancies that are unfilled despite filled jobs earning positive profits as a criterion for selecting equilibria a notion of renegotiation proofness is applied then either all workers are employed or all jobs filled but any division of the potential surplus is still possible the paper explores what further restrictions on beliefs give rise to a walrasian outcome in which all the potential surplus goes to the short side of the market and to an efficiency wage type outcome in which the potential surplus goes to the long side

forecasting volatility of futures market the s p 500 and ftse 100 futures using high frequency returns and implied volatility we show that historical volatility from high frequency returns outperforms implied volatility when standardized returns by historical volatility tends to be normally distributed for the ftse 100 futures we find that historical volatility using high frequency returns outperforms implied volatility in forecasting future volatility however we find that implied volatility outperforms historical volatility in forecasting future volatility for the s p 500 futures the results also indicate that historical volatility using high frequency returns could be an unbiased forecast for the ftse 100 futures 1 we thank christopher lowes for his excellent research assistance

self enforcing wage contracts we examine long term wage contracts between a risk neutral firm and a risk averse worker when both can costlessly renege and buy or sell labour at a random spot market wage a self enforcing contract is one in which neither party ever has an incentive to renege in the optimum self enforcing contract wages are sticky they are less variable than spot market wages and positively serially correlated they are updated by a simple rule around each spot wage is a time invariant interval and the contract wage changes each period by the smallest amount necessary to bring it into the current interval

stock returns and volatility most asset pricing models postulate a positive relationship between a stock portfolio s expected returns and risk which is often modeled by the variance of the asset price this paper uses garch in mean models to examine the relationship between mean returns on a stock portfolio and its conditional variance or standard deviation after estimating a variety of models from daily and monthly portfolio return data we conclude that any relationship between mean returns and own variance or standard deviation is weak the results suggest that investors consider some other risk measure to be more important than the variance of portfolio returns