public infrastructure investments productivity and welfare in fixed geographic areas abstract measures of the value of public investments are critical inputs into the policy process and aggregate production and cost functions have become the dominant methods of evaluating these benefits this paper examines the limitations of these approaches in light of applied production and spatial equilibrium theories a spatial equilibrium model of an economy with nontraded localized public goods like infrastructure is proposed and a method for identifying the role of public capital in firm production and household preferences is derived empirical evidence from a sample of large us cities suggests that public capital provides significant marginal benefits but the marginal productivity of public capital is low and aggregate city willingness to pay for large increases in public capital is less than their cost the paper concludes with a brief discussion of the political economy of urban infrastructure investment

a review of wta wtp studies abstract willingness to accept wta is usually substantially higher than willingness to pay wtp these constructs have been studied for roughly 30 years and with a wide variety of goods this paper reviews those studies we find that the less the good is like an ordinary market good the higher is the ratio the ratio is highest for non market goods next highest for ordinary private goods and lowest for experiments involving forms of money a generalization of this pattern holds even when we account for differences in survey design ordinary goods have lower ratios than non ordinary ones we also find that ratios in real experiments are not significantly different from hypothetical experiments and that incentive compatible elicitation yields higher ratios

the mix of public inputs under tax competition this paper analyzes how the use of taxation on mobile factors affects the mix of factor specific public inputs set by regional governments e g manpower training for labor infrastructure for capital these inputs are defined such that they have impacts analogous to the harrod neutral and solow neutral technical change regional governments provide two types of public input that respectively complement immobile and mobile factors it is shown that the nature of the expenditure mix depends on the elasticity of substitution between these factors too much tax revenue is spent on public input complementing mobile immobile factors if the elasticity is more than less than one but the mix of these inputs is efficient if the elasticity is equal to one

resolving differences in willingness to pay and willingness to accept reply gwendolyn c morrison 1997 raises a logical point regarding our experimental test of the divergence between willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta measures of economic value shogren et al 1994 she argues that our design does not provide a true test of the existence of a fundamental endowment effect since we did not control for the potential of a pivoting indifference map daniel kahneman et al 1990 she concludes that even though our ev idence shows that the mean wtp and wta bids for market goods with close substitutes e g candy bars and coffee mugs converge after market experience the endowment effect might still be alive and well albeit at statisti cally insignificant levels

why has u s inflation become harder to forecast we examine whether the u s rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and to the extent that it has what changes in the inflation process have made it so the main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend cycle model with stochastic volatility or equivalently an integrated moving average process with time varying parameters this model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles and begins to explain some multivariate inflation forecasting puzzles as well

the boundaries of loss aversion abstract in this article the authors propose some psychological principles to describe the boundaries of loss aversion a key idea is that exchange goods that are given up as intended do not exhibit loss aversion for example the authors propose that money given up in purchases is not generally subject to loss aversion the results of several experiments provide preliminary support for the hypotheses the authors find that consistent with prospect theory loss aversion provides a complete account of risk aversion for risks with equal probability to win or lose the authors propose boundaries for this result and suggest further tests of the model

a theory of interregional tax competition a general equilibrium model is constructed to study tax competition where local governments compete for capital by holding down property tax rates and public expenditure levels an exact definition of tax competition is provided and both the existence and nonexistence of tax competition are shown to be theoretically possible it is argued however that tax competition must occur under empirically reasonable conditions inefficiency in public production is also explicitly modeled the amount of capital used to produce a given level of public service output is shown to be greater than that which is required to minimize costs evaluated at the prices facing private firms

has u s inflation really become harder to forecast recently stock and watson 2007 showed that since the mid 1980s it has been hard for backward looking phillips curve models to improve on simple univariate models in forecasting u s inflation while this indeed is the case when the benchmark is a causal autoregression little change in forecast accuracy is detected when a noncausal autoregression is taken as the benchmark in this note we argue that a noncausal autoregression indeed provides a better characterization of u s inflation dynamics than the conventional causal autoregression and it is therefore the appropriate univariate benchmark model

a new model of trend inflation this article introduces a new model of trend inflation in contrast to many earlier approaches which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval the bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data our model also allows for a time varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation in an empirical exercise with cpi inflation we find the model to work well yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model this article has supplementary materials online

effective use of survey information in estimating the evolution of expected inflation the evolution of the term structure of expected u s inflation is modeled using survey data to provide timely information on structural change not contained in lagged inflation data to capture shifts in subjective perceptions the model is adaptive to long horizon survey expectations however even short horizon survey expectations inform shifting endpoint estimates that capture the lag between inflation and the perceived inflation target which anchors inflation expectations results show movements of the perceived target are an important source of inflation persistence and suggest historical u s monetary policy was not fully credible for much of the postwar sample

rare shocks great recessions summary we estimate a dsge dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where rare large shocks can occur by replacing the commonly used gaussian assumption with a student s t distribution results from the smets and wouters american economic review 2007 97 586 606 model estimated on the usual set of macroeconomic time series over the 1964 2011 period indicate that i the student s t specification is strongly favored by the data even when we allow for low frequency variation in the volatility of the shocks and ii the estimated degrees of freedom are quite low for several shocks that drive us business cycles implying an important role for rare large shocks this result holds even if we exclude the great recession period from the sample we also show that inference about low frequency changes in volatility and in particular inference about the magnitude of great moderation is different once we allow for fat tails copyright 2014 john wiley sons ltd

incorporating reference price effects into a theory of consumer choice although there has been a good deal of research on incorporating the effects of reference price formation into empirical models of consumer buying behavior little formal theoretical work had been undertaken to date this paper incorporates reference price effects into the traditional economic theory of consumer choice and examines the effects of reference price formation on the results of the traditional theory its marketing implications and the implications for empirical models which examine the effects of reference price formation on actual consumer behavior several implications of the theoretical model are empirically tested using weekly retail egg sales data from southern california this analysis indicates that reference price formation does have significant effects on consumer behavior furthermore these effects are asymmetric with consumers two and a half times more responsive to egg price increases that are in excess of the reference price than they are to comparable egg price decreases

infrastructure investment a review essay economists try not to be faddists but they often cannot help themselves while work on a topic should mirror the prospective importance of the topic that situation seems to occur with disappointing frequency instead the usual pattern is that some reasonably important topic will be totally ignored for the longest time then recognized and then the subject of a flurry of work all out of proportion to its likely long run importance nowhere has this speculative bubble of economic research been more clearly illustrated than with infrastructure investment macroeconomists havelong felt that the stock of public capital is an important factor input in the production of total output macroeconomists have known that u s productivity growth slowed dramatically in about 1973 and macroeconomists should have known that united states investment in public capital has been down since the late 1960s yet analysis of the u s productivity slowdown completely ignored infrastructure investment for the first fifteen years of this slowdown concentrating instead on energy prices social regulation the composition of the work force research and development different rates of obsolescence of the private capital stock and any number of other matters the public capital stock was hardly ever even mentioned as a potential factor in the productivity slowdown aschauer changed all that he wrote a series of papers 1989a 1989b 1989c that put these two movements together econometrically infrastructure investment turned down and aggregate productivity turned down slightly later both in the united states and in some other developed countries his work hit the magic button those who had worried about the productivity puzzle for fifteen years welcomed a new suspect those who were worried about low rates of u s national saving welcomed a new way to make their argument even more forcefully than with official figures on saving and investment which do not count infrastructure investment as investment political liberals and liberal politicians saw a way to rescue government spending and projects from the assaults of reaganism and even a way to avoid oth

an investigation of the rationality of consumer valuations of multiple health risks after developing a conceptual analysis of consumer valuation of multiple risks we explore both economic and cognitive hypotheses regarding individual risk taking using a sample of over 1 500 consumers our study ascertains risk dollar tradeoffs for the risks associated with using an insecticide and a toilet bowl cleaner we observe the expected positive valuation of risk reductions and find empirical support for a diminishing in the valuation of risk reduction as the extent of the risk reduction increases we also find evidence of certainty premiums for the total elimination of one risk but no strong evidence of additional certainty premiums for the elimination of multiple risks strong reference risk effects are evident as increases in risk were valued much more greatly than were decreases

a tax competition analysis of congestible public inputs abstract this paper investigates the provision of congestible local public inputs within a tax competition framework public input provision is financed by a business capital tax and by a profits tax on firms as a congestion tax with this tax system local tax and expenditure policies are inefficient because of potential capital outflows the tax mix is inefficient in that the profits tax rate is too high relative to the capital tax rate the level of public input provision is inefficiently low focusing on expenditure inefficiency this analysis of public inputs is compared with wilson s analysis journal of urban economics 1995 38 333 356 of congestible public goods

public budget composition fiscal de centralization and welfare we study the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization in a dynamic federal economy where governments decide on budget size and its allocation between public education and infrastructure spending we find that full centralization of tax and expenditure policies is optimal when infrastructure productivity is similar across regions when differences are not too large partial centralization is optimal with strong differences full decentralization becomes optimal national steady state output tends to be highest under full decentralization we provide a justification for the mixed evidence regarding the oates conjecture by showing that full dominates partial decentralization despite being inferior to complete decentralization on etudie le degre optimal de decentralisation fiscale dans une economie federale dynamique ou les gouvernements decident de la taille du budget et de son allocation entre les depenses en education publique et en infrastructures on decouvre qu une pleine centralisation des taxes et des depenses est optimale quand la productivite des infrastructures est la meme dans toutes les regions quand les differences ne sont pas trop importantes une centralisation partielle est optimale en presence de fortes differences la pleine decentralisation est optimale la production nationale en regime permanent tend aetre la plus elevee quand il y a pleine decentralisation on fournit une justification pour les resultats mixtes obtenus quant a la conjoncture de oates en montrant que la pleine decentralisation est preferable a la decentralisation partielle meme si elle est inferieure a la decentralisation complete

reference dependence effects on wta and wtp value functions and their disparity in this study we investigate two reference dependence effects in a choice experiment the first is the effect of the well known distinction between gains and losses the second is the effect of changing the reference value on willingness to pay wtp and willingness to accept wta the latter has to our knowledge not been studied before we hypothesize that there are differences between wta and wtp and that both value functions and their disparity are affected by the absolute value of the reference point we test our hypotheses using a choice experiment with trade offs between changes in flood probabilities and costs the choice experiments elicit wtp and wta using two flood probability reference values yielding four separate value functions our findings show that a substantial wta wtp disparity exists and that this disparity increases when moving away from the reference point also both wta and wtp value functions are affected by the flood probability reference value and the wta wtp disparity increases when the flood probability reference point increases both findings suggest that welfare effects caused by changes in public good provision depend not only on the direction of change loss aversion but also the reference value moreover our results show that the latter effect is larger for losses than for gains we introduce the concept of reference point updating as a possible explanation for these findings

autoregression based estimation of the new keynesian phillips curve abstract we propose an estimation method of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc based on a univariate noncausal autoregressive model for the inflation rate by construction our approach avoids a number of problems related to the gmm estimation of the nkpc we estimate the hybrid nkpc with quarterly u s data 1955 1 2010 3 and both expected future inflation and lagged inflation are found important in determining the inflation rate with the former clearly dominating moreover inflation persistence turns out to be intrinsic rather than inherited from a persistent driving process

redistribution and regional development under tax competition abstract this paper considers how capital tax competition affects transfer and development policies in the presence of regional income disparity in each country development policies determine the number of rich poor regions that do not engage in production activities while transfer policies redistribute income between rich and poor regions the mix of transfer and development policies is inefficient under tax competition conditional on the equilibrium tax rate too much revenue is spent on development policies and too little on transfer policies this analysis of the expenditure mix implies that development policies are used as a means of regional redistribution even if transfer policies are efficient instruments for this purpose moreover it is shown that the overall level of public expenditure may be too high because of the possibility of over development

pigou tiebout property taxation and the underprovision of local public goods abstract pigou s proposition that the use of distorting taxes rather than neutral head taxes reduces public service levels is examined in this paper a simple model with a national system of competing local governments is utilized to demonstrate that the use of a distorting property tax on mobile capital decreases the level of residential public services the case where public services are an intermediate producer good is also considered

exchange asymmetries incorrectly interpreted as evidence of endowment effect theory and prospect theory systematic asymmetries in exchange behavior have been widely interpreted as support for endowment effect theory an application of prospect theory positing that loss aversion and utility function kinks set by entitlements explain observed asymmetries we experimentally test an alternative explanation namely that asymmetries are explained by classical preference theories finding influence through the experimental procedures typically used contrary to the predictions of endowment effect theory we observe no asymmetries when we modify procedures to remove the influence of classical preference theories when we return to traditional type procedures however the asymmetries reappear the results support explanations based in classical preference theories and reject endowment effect theory

trend inflation and the nature of structural breaks in the new keynesian phillips curve in this paper we investigate the nature of structural breaks in inflation by estimating a version of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc in the presence of a unit root in inflation we show that with a unit root in inflation the nkpc implies an unobserved components model that consists of three components a stochastic trend component a component that depends upon current and future forecasts of real economic activity and a stationary component which is potentially serially correlated or a component of inflation that is not explained by the conventional forward looking nkpc our empirical results suggest that with an increase in trend inflation during the great inflation period the response of inflation to real economic activity decreases and the persistence of the inflation gap increases due to an increase in the persistence of the unobserved stationary component these results are in line with the predictions of cogley and sbordone 2008 who show that the coefficients of the nkpc are functions of time varying trend inflation

the endowment effect and the reference state evidence and manipulations abstract recent reports suggest that the endowment effect may be due to conditions under which it is observed and explained by incentives long recognized in standard theory evidence from new experiments reported here provides empirical support for the role of the economic environment on people s perceived reference state and consequently on their valuations as suggested by koszegi and rabin koszegi b rabin m 2006 a model of reference dependent preferences quarterly journal of economics 121 1133 1165 and indicates that the disappearance of the valuation disparity is more likely due instead to conditions that weaken the perception of reference states further these conditions appear to be poor approximations of those that prevail in most cases for which valuations are normally made

trend inflation indexation and inflation persistence in the new keynesian phillips curve purely forward looking versions of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc generate too little inflation persistence some authors add ad hoc backward looking terms to address this shortcoming we hypothesize that inflation per sistence results mainly from variation in the long run trend component of inflation which we attribute to shifts in monetary policy we derive a version of the nkpc that incorporates a time varying inflation trend and examine whether it explains the dynamics of inflation when drift in trend inflation is taken into account a purely forward looking version of the model fits the data well and there is no need for backward looking components jel e12 e31 e52 in this paper we consider the extent to which guillermo calvo s 1983 model of nominal price rigidities can explain inflation dynamics without relying on arbitrary backward looking terms in its baseline formulation the calvo model leads to a purely forward looking new keynesian

examining risk preferences under high monetary incentives experimental evidence from the people s republic of china several experimental sessions were conducted to elicit certainty equivalents for a sequence of lotteries involving real monetary outcomes the opportunity to conduct sessions in the people s republic of china afforded the ability to offer very large monetary incentives relative to subjects living costs in the highest payoff condition subjects earned three times their normal monthly revenue in the course of a two hour experiment results indicate a statistically significant impact of the level of monetary incentives on revealed risk preferences however even under extreme monetary incentives subjects demanded amounts well in excess of expected value for low probability gain prospects copyright 1992 by american economic association

more laboratory evidence on the disparity between willingness to pay and compensation demanded abstract recent experimental work showing a disparity between willingness to pay for and compensation demanded to give up lottery tickets is contrary to economists ideas about rationality presented here are the results of experiments in which subjects participate in second price auctions to indicate willingness to pay and compensation demanded for lottery tickets that have fixed odds of winning or losing money when the auction institution used has truthful revelation of preferences as the dominant strategy and that strategy is announced to subjects the difference between the measures of value decreases significantly the within subject comparison design provides a more discriminating measure of behavior than between subject comparison designs used previously

posterior predictive evidence on us inflation using extended new keynesian phillips curve models with non filtered data changing time series properties of us inflation and economic activity measured as marginal costs are modeled within a set of extended new keynesian phillips curve nkpc models it is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used basic nkpc models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time varying patterns in levels and volatilities forward and backward looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood use is made of simulation based bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis no credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long run stability between inflation and marginal costs backward looking inflation appears stronger than forward looking inflation levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich nkpc models the extended nkpc structures compare favorably with existing basic bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years

willingness to pay and compensation demanded experimental evidence of an unexpected disparity in measures of value aside from possible income effects measures of the maximum amounts people will pay to avoid a loss and the minimum compensation necessary for them to accept it are generally assumed to be equivalent unexpectedly wide variations between these sums however have been noted in survey responses to hypothetical options this paper reports the results of a series of experiments that confronted people with actual money payments and cash compensations the results indicate that the compensation measure of value seems to exceed significantly the willingness to pay measure which would appear to call into some question various rules of entitlement damage assessments and interpretations of indifference curves

a new time varying parameter autoregressive model for u s inflation expectations we study the evolution of u s inflation by means of a new noncausal autoregressive model with time varying parameters that outperforms the corresponding causal and constant parameter noncausal models in terms of fit and forecast accuracy our model also beats the unobserved component stochastic volatility ucsv model one of the best performing univariate inflation forecasting models in terms of both point and density forecasts we also show how the new keynesian phillips curve can be estimated based on our noncausal model both expected and lagged inflation turn out important but the former dominates in determining the current inflation

the stochastic volatility in mean model with time varying parameters an application to inflation modeling this article generalizes the popular stochastic volatility in mean model to allow for time varying parameters in the conditional mean the estimation of this extension is nontrival since the volatility appears in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance and its coefficient in the former is time varying we develop an efficient markov chain monte carlo algorithm based on band and sparse matrix algorithms instead of the kalman filter to estimate this more general variant the methodology is illustrated with an application that involves u s u k and germany inflation the estimation results show substantial time variation in the coefficient associated with the volatility highlighting the empirical relevance of the proposed extension moreover in a pseudo out of sample forecasting exercise the proposed variant also forecasts better than various standard benchmarks

fiscal competition and the pattern of public spending much attention has been given to the impact of fiscal competition on the level of public expenditure but relatively little to the impact on its composition using a broadly familiar and reasonably rich model of fiscal competition in the presence of mobile capital this paper establishes a systematic bias in public spending patterns starting from the non cooperative equilibrium and holding tax rates constant welfare would be improved by a coordinated reduction in the provision of local public inputs and a corresponding increase in the public provision of local public goods benefiting immobile consumers c 1997 elsevier science s a

values of gains and losses reference states and choice of measure the available empirical evidence continues to suggest that people commonly value losses more and often much more than otherwise commensurate gains consequently current practice of using the wtp measure for all changes is often likely to lead to misleading assessments of welfare changes the reference dependence of preferences implies instead that while the wtp measure is appropriate for gains the value of both positive and negative changes in the domain of losses will usually be more accurately assessed with the wta measure