on cross border bank credit and the u s financial crisis transmission to equity markets this paper examines the role played by cross border equity bond and bank credit flows versus international trade in the transmission of the u s financial crisis to equity markets worldwide we estimate vector autoregressive models with exogenous global factors using monthly data on 36 emerging and developed countries the results from an eclectic methodology that includes causality tests generalized impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions indicate that the crisis is mostly transmitted through bank credit rather than portfolio flows and international trade the results are robust to altering the exogenous versus endogenous vectors of variables to measuring equity prices in u s dollars or local currency to averaging the data across countries versus averaging the parameters from individual country estimation and to redefining the start date of the crisis the findings endorse the use of banking regulation and capital controls as part of the policy toolkit to limit financial vulnerability

literacy skills and welfare effects of participation in adult literacy programs abstractthis paper examines the effect of adult literacy program participation on household consumption in ghana the adult literacy programs in ghana are of special interest because they are more comprehensive than standard literacy programs and incorporate many additional topics we use community fixed effects combined with instrumental variables to account for possible endogenous program placement and self selection into program participation for households where none of the adults have completed any formal education we find a substantial positive and statistically significant effect on household consumption our preferred estimate of the effect of participation for households without education is equivalent to a 10 increase in consumption per adult equivalent the effects of participation on welfare for other households are smaller not statistically significant and become smaller the more educated the household is we find positive and statistically significant effects of participation on litera

skills schooling and household income in ghana this article examines the impact of cognitive skills on the income of households in ghana it uses scores on mathematics and english tests to measure cognitive skills and estimates the returns to these skills based on farm profit off farm income and total income the article uses powell s censored least absolute deviations and symmetrically trimmed least squares estimators to estimate farm and off farm income in contrast to heckman s two step or the tobit estimator powell s estimators are consistent in the presence of heteroscedasticity and are robust to other violations of normality the results show that cognitive skills have a positive effect on total and off farm income but do not have a statistically significant effect on farm income

firm size and efficiency in the german mechanical engineering industry research usually finds a positive size efficiency relationship but few studies focus on sectors dominated by small and medium sized firms smes this paper fills this gap by analyzing this relationship in the german mechanical engineering industry sector which is both successful and increasingly dominated by smes the analysis using a large and representative dataset finds that small and large firms are on average the most efficient ones while medium sized firms have on average the greatest inefficiencies thus the size efficiency relationship is u shaped rather than monotonically increasing additionally the analysis finds that companies with active owner s are significantly more efficient and that capital firms are less efficient than firms with personally liable owners being located in either east or west germany has no effect

the composition of capital inflows when emerging market firms face financing constraints abstract the composition of capital inflows to emerging market economies tends to follow a predictable dynamic pattern across the business cycle in most emerging market economies total inflows are pro cyclical with debt and portfolio equity flowing in first followed later in the expansion by foreign direct investment fdi to understand the dynamic composition of these flows we use a small open economy soe framework to model the composition of capital inflows as the equilibrium outcome of emerging market firms financing decisions we show how costly external financing and fdi search costs generate a state contingent cost of financing such that the cheapest source of financing depends on the phase of the business cycle in this manner the financial frictions are able to explain the interaction between the types of flows and deliver a time varying composition of flows as well as other standard features of emerging market business cycles if as this work suggests flows are an equilibrium outcome of firms financing decisions then volatility of capital inflows is not necessarily bad for an economy furthermore using capital controls to shut down one type of flow and encourage another is certain to have both short and long run welfare implications

educational policy and labour productivity an output accounting exercise what is the contribution of education to output productivity or their growth economists have tried to answer this question using output accounting or growth accounting by the decomposing of output or its growth into the contributions of various factors including education the approach in this paper is output accounting of which krueger i968 provides an early example using crude aggregate census data on some 20 mostly developing countries krueger posed the question how much do differences in educational endowments lead to differences in per capita income she estimated the effect on per capita income in the united states of assuming not the u s educational distribution but the distribution in each other country the size of this effect xw as then related to the differences in per capita income krueger explained more than half the difference in per capita income by differences in human capital and so concluded that human capital defined more broadly than educational attainment contributed more than all other factors combined another version of the same exercise but using a three factor production function was conducted by fallon and layard i 9 75 with similar data sources but for a different set of countries they found the contribution of their index of human capital to be lower than krueger s estimate and generally lower than that of physical capital output and growth accounting both suffer from well known drawbacks see for instance bowman i980 and nelson i98i first failing to take account of the other determinants of income can bias estimates of the difference in income and productivity attributable to education secondly in simply assuming that the standardised earnings difference between the educated

gibrat s law and persistence of growth in greek manufacturing this study makes use of a sample of greek manufacturing firms during 1995 2001 in order to analyze gibrat s law we find gibrat s law is rejected for the total sample of firms since persistence of growth plays a key role the classification of firms in size and age groups however yields more interesting results gibrat s law is rejected for micro small and young firms since an inverse relationship between firm growth and initial firm size is found along with a persistence of growth rates in subsequent periods in contrast gibrat s law is accepted for medium large and old firms implying that the growth patterns of these categories follow a random walk and do not tend to persist in subsequent periods

quantitative easing and the post crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries abstract this paper examines gross financial inflows to developing countries between 2000 and 2013 with a focus on the potential effects of quantitative easing qe policies in the united states and other high income countries we find evidence for potential transmission of qe along observable liquidity portfolio balancing and confidence channels moreover we find that qe had an additional latent effect over and above these observable channels one that survives an array of robustness tests retains its significance across different types of financial flows and which cannot be attributed to changes in expectations or elasticity our baseline estimates place the lower bound of a qe effect at around 5 percent of gross inflows above trend for the average developing economy which is a magnitude comparable to a one standard deviation change along the traditional channels we also find evidence of heterogeneity among different types of flows portfolio especially bond flows tend to be more sensitive than fdi to our measured qe effects

the cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows abstract we analyze the second moment properties of the components of international capital flows and their relationship to business cycle variables output investment and the real interest rate in 22 industrial and emerging countries total inward flows are procyclical with respect to all three macro variables net outward flows are countercyclical with respect to output and investment in most industrial and emerging countries disaggregated inward flows positively comove with output in industrial countries and with investment and the real interest rate in the g7 economies inward foreign direct investment is the only non procyclical type of inward capital flows with respect to output in the developing economies formal statistical tests based on nonparametric bootstrap techniques detect significant variance increases in all g7 countries disaggregated capital flows over exogenous and endogenously estimated breaks

wages equal productivity fact or fiction using a matched employer employee data set of manufacturing plants in three subsaharan countries i compare the marginal productivity of different categories of workers with the wages they earn in each country i observe approximately 135 firms and an average of 5 5 employees per firm under certain conditions the wage premiums for worker characteristics should equal the productivity benefits associated with them i find that equality holds strongly in zimbabwe the most developed country in the sample but not at all for tanzania the least developed country results for kenya are intermediate differences between wage and productivity premiums are most pronounced for characteristics that are clearly related to human capital such as schooling training experience and tenure moreover where the wage premium differs from the productivity benefit general human capital tends to receive a wage return that exceeds the productivity return and the reverse holds for more specific human capital investments schooling tends to be over rewarded even though most of the productivity benefit comes from job training wages tend to rise with experience even though productivity is mostly increasing in tenure sampling errors nonlinear effects and non wage benefits are rejected as explanation for the gap between wage and productivity effects localized labor markets and imperfect substitutability of different worker types provide a partial explanation department of economics university of toronto 150 st george street toronto on m5s 3g7 canada jovb chass utoronto ca seminar participants at the university of illinois kellogg school of management and catholic university of louvain provided useful suggestions funding by the connaught foundation is gratefully acknowledged

international portfolio flows with growth shocks this paper investigates the impacts of level and growth rate productivity shocks on the cyclical dynamics of gross portfolio flows between two economies using an endogenous portfolio choice problem within a dsge framework we find that the level shocks yield procyclical gross equity flows while the growth rate shocks produce countercyclical flows these dynamics cannot be replicated by only employing persistent shocks to the level of productivity

r d and the growth of firms empirical analysis of a panel of italian firms abstract this paper deals with the growth of firms and with their innovative activities the main hypothesis of the paper maintains that firms with a strong commitment to r d have a higher rate of growth because they succeed in the product market after a review of the related literature the paper presents an econometric analysis of the r d growth of firms relation based on a database of italian firms data on a sample of 500 firms with time series in the range 1989 1997 were drawn from the mediocredito survey of italian manufacturing descriptive analysis shows that the sales growth rate of firms with r d is higher than that of firms without r d econometric analysis is performed in two steps first we apply a panel unit root test im k pesaran h shin y 1997 testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels dae university of cambridge mimeo to verify whether the firm size significantly affects firm growth the test confirms gibrat s law that firm size has a stochastic trend second we explore whether there are variables with stochastic trends that could account for firm size according to our estimates the growth rate of firms is positively correlated with research intensity in these estimates a further interesting result is that investment in ict is not significant or shows a parameter with negative sign

do firms growth rates depend on firm size the empirical literature dealing with corporate growth does not in general give support to gibrat s law stating that the expected increase in firm size is proportionate to its initial size leaving their growth rates independent of size using a relatively large and representative sample of approximately 2 500 danish firms representing all industries we have evaluated the validity of gibrat s law over the period 1990 2004 the present analysis addresses this question by applying econometric methods to test gibrat s law and correcting for problems related to autocorrelation the empirical findings of our study do not generally support gibrat s law but in contrast to the results of earlier studies the analysis reveals that firms growth rates are more likely to be positively related to firm size

on the econometrics of world business cycles over the past 10 or 15 years academic interest in business cycles has recovered to a level not matched perhaps since the 1930s in his editorial statement in the first issue of econometric8 in 1933 ragnar frisch not only introduced a new word econometrics which he defined as quantitative economic theory but also listed business cycle theory among four fields of particular interest to econometricians this inclusion reflected the views not only of frisch but also of hayek 1931 tinbergen 1935 and others this interest waned however in the 1950s and 1960s a major factor leading to its reawakening was the paper by robert lucas 1977 on understanding business cycles perhaps this course of events was not surprising a prerequisite for making much progress in this field was dynamic general equilibrium theory by the 1970s the basic theory had been developed and neoclassical growth theory evolved as the dominant framework for business cycle analysis

do some forms of financial flows help protect against sudden stops there is a debate on whether some forms of financial flows offer better protection against crises than others using a large panel data set that includes advanced emerging and developing economies during 1970 2003 this article analyzes the behavior of several types of flows foreign direct investment fdi portfolio equity investment portfolio debt investment other flows to the official sector other flows to banks and other flows to the nonbank private sector differences across types of flows are limited with respect to volatility persistence cross country co movement and correlation with growth at home or in the world economy however consistent with conventional wisdom fdi is the least volatile form of financial flow when the average size of net or gross flows is taken into account the differences are striking during sudden stops in financial flows defined as drops in total net financial inflows of more than percentage points of gross domestic product gdp compared with the previous year in such episodes fdi is remarkably stable and portfolio equity seems to play a limited role portfolio debt experiences a reversal though it recovers relatively quickly and other flows including bank loans and trade credit experience severe drops and often remain depressed for a few years

international capital flows to emerging markets national and global determinants using a novel dataset for emerging markets we empirically investigate the nature and determinants of aggregate and disaggregate capital inflows we present formal statistical evidence of commonalities in capital inflows with the strongest evidence for the level of equity and bank flows advanced economy long run bond yields and commodity prices are identified as determinants of global capital flows we also consider the national determinants of capital flows finding that financial openness and institutions matter for country flows finally we identify important commonalities in the volatility of bank inflows

impact of global economic crisis on firm growth the global economic crisis has had an adverse effect on and may continue to affect the entrepreneurial sector all over the world however even in a recessionary period there will always be some firms growing faster than others it is therefore imperative to understand the variables and processes that make some firms grow faster or more resilient to crisis than others in this paper we focus on firm size and its contributions to growth we examine whether growth rates of manufacturing and service industries are independent of firm size during the period of economic crisis based on a large sample of surviving firms in the manufacturing and hospitality industries the results of two step dynamic panel suggest that turnover growth is positively associated with companies size during the observed period of economic recession 2008 2013 in both industries large and medium sized firms exhibit higher growth than do small firms

international business cycles what are the facts abstract modern business cycle theory involves developing models that explain stylized facts for this strategy to be successful these facts should be well established in this paper we focus on the stylized facts of international business cycles we use the generalized method of moments and quarterly data from twenty industrialized countries to estimate and test hypotheses concerning pairwise cross country correlations of macroeconomic aggregates a remarkable common feature emerges these correlations are mostly positive not very high and of a similar order of magnitude the most important discrepancy with the theory is the low cross country correlation of consumption

financial globalization and real regionalization over the period 1972 1986 the correlations of gdp employment and investment between the united states and an aggregate of europe canada and japan were respectively 0 76 0 66 and 0 63 for the period 1986 to 2000 the same correlations were much lower 0 26 0 03 and 0 07 real regionalization at the same time u s international asset trade has significantly increased for example between 1972 and 1999 united states gross fdi and equity assets in the same group of countries rose from 4 to 23 percent of the u s capital stock financial globalization we argue that these two trends are intimately related we document that the correlation of real shocks between the u s and the rest of the world has declined we then present a model in which international financial market integration occurs endogenously in response to less correlated shocks financial integration further reduces the international correlations in gdp and factor supplies we find that both less correlated shocks and endogenous financial market development are needed to account for all the changes in the international business cycle

a portfolio model of capital flows to emerging markets since the crises of the late 1990 s most emerging market economies have built up substantial positive holdings of us dollar treasury bills while at the same time experiencing a boom in fdi capital inflows this paper develops a dsge model of the interaction between an emerging market economy and an advanced economy which incorporates two way capital flows between the economies the novel aspect of the paper is to make use of new methods for analyzing portfolio choice in dsge models we compare a range of alternative financial market structures in each case computing equilibrium portfolios we find that an asymmetric configuration where the emerging economy holds nominal bonds and issues claims on capital fdi can achieve a considerable degree of international risk sharing this risk sharing can be enhanced by a more stable monetary policy in the advanced economy

do firm sizes and profit rates converge evidence on gibrat s law and the persistence of profits in the long run three panel unit root tests are applied to a 31 year firm size growth and profit rate data set for 96 large quoted uk firms all tests reject the unit root null for log size if the augmented dickey fuller autoregressions exclude a linear time trend if a linear trend is included the results are more ambiguous and appear to differ systematically between tests the view that firm growth is either random or near random does not receive unequivocal support in all tests there is however strong and consistent evidence of mean reversion in profit rates

educational expansion and the kuznets effect the objective in this note is to show the change in wage dispersion in response to increases in the relative supply of educated workers in two low income countries we also measure the relative contributions to that change of its two components the effect of the educational expansion on the educational composition of the labor force holding the educational structure of wages constant and the resultant compression of that structure holding composition constant the paper s analysis is based on three precisely comparable surveys of wage employees conducted in tanzania in 1971 and 1980 and in kenya in 1980

uncertainty capital flows and maturity mismatch abstract this paper explores a how the financial uncertainty generated by volatile international capital flows interacts with maturity mismatch on the balance sheets of nonfinancial firms to increase the volatility of output investment and total factor productivity tfp in emerging market economies i build a model of a small open economy in which financial frictions force firms to fund long term projects with short term debt in response to changes in the level of uncertainty regarding the availability of foreign borrowing firms adjust their long term investment contributing to the volatility of investment and output as well as generating endogenous fluctuations in aggregate productivity using data from a panel of major emerging markets i show that the volatility of portfolio debt flows negatively affects output by dampening investment while the volatility of equity flows which do not generate maturity mismatch has no effect consistent with the mechanism in the model the negative impact of capital flow volatility is larger at low levels of financial development and in industries with longer time to build lags my estimates imply that shocks to capital flow volatility account for one fifth of the excess output volatility of the emerging markets in my sample relative to a set of small open advanced economies

decomposing the gender gap in cognitive skills in a poor rural economy girls lag markedly behind boys in education in many developing countries which may slow economic growth and increase inequity this paper uses indicators of the output of the education production process cognitive skills to characterize and to investigate the determinants of the large educational gender gap in rural pakistan local school availability accounts for about a third of the total cognitive achievement gender gap and over two fifths of that in numeracy which implies that policies that increased local school availability for girls could reduce substantially the gender gaps in cognitive skills to further reduce these gender gaps will require policies that focus on the demand side of the market where our results suggest the response to modest changes in incentives may be high

the dynamics of capital flow episodes nous proposons une methodologie nouvelle pour reperer les episodes de flux importants de capitaux cette methode repose sur un modele de markov a changement de regime le grand avantage de ce type de modeles sur les approches retenues dans la litterature est qu il permet de classifier les mouvements de capitaux en differents regimes sans qu il soit necessaire de formuler des hypotheses specifiques au contexte ou a l echantillon choisi

high growth firms in changing competitive environments the us pharmaceutical industry 1963 to 2002 firms across sectors and regions are highly skewed in their ability to engage with innovation and even more skewed in their ability to translate investments in innovation into higher growth recent attention has been placed on the importance of high growth firms hgf for innovation policy our paper explores under what conditions hgf matter for translating r d investments into economic growth and how this depends on firm specific and industry specific factors we use quantile regression techniques to study the r d growth relationship in hgf compared to low growth firms unlike previous studies we pay particular attention to whether this relationship depends on the particular period in the industry s life cycle we focus on the us pharmaceutical industry from 1963 to 2002 and find that the r d growth relationship is sensitive to the changing competitive environment over the industry s history which suggests that innovation policy must focus not only on firm attributes but also competitive structures

international capital flows abstract the surge in international asset trade since the early 1990s has lead to renewed interest in models with international portfolio choice we develop the implications of portfolio choice for both gross and net international capital flows in the context of a simple two country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model we focus on the time variation in portfolio allocation following shocks and resulting capital flows endogenous time variation in expected returns and risk which are the key determinants of portfolio choice affect capital flows in often subtle ways the model is consistent with a broad range of empirical evidence an additional contribution of the paper is to overcome the technical difficulty of solving dsge models with portfolio choice by developing a broadly applicable solution method

educational expansion government policy and wage compression abstract the main objective is to measure the elasticity in the response of relative wages by education to relative supplies of educated labour using rigorously comparable urban wage labour market surveys an econometric comparison is made of kenya and tanzania countries which constitute a natural experiment having different secondary education policies but being similar in other relevant respects post primary educational expansion as kenya is an effective means of compressing wages however the tanzanian scarcity premium on post primary education is held down by the alternative means of public sector pay policy the analysis suggests an important role for occupation in the wage adjustment process

portfolio capital flows hot or cold a distinction is often made between short term and long term capital flows the former are deemed unstable hot money and the latter are deemed stable cold money using time series analysis of balance of payments data for five industrial and five developing countries we find that in most cases the labels short term and long term do not provide any information about the time series properties of the flow in particular long term flows are often as volatile as short term flows and the time it takes for an unexpected shock to a flow to die out is similar across flows long term flows are also at least as unpredictable as short term flows and knowledge of the type of flow does not improve the ability to forecast the aggregate capital account copyright 1995 by oxford university press

the strategy used by high performing asian economies in education some lessons for developing countries abstract the paper examines the main features of the educational policies followed over the last three decades by high performing asian economies the educational strategy is contrasted with that of the other countries located in the same region the issues analyzed concern the emphasis placed on the different levels of schooling the choices made in terms of quantity and quality of education the schemes used to finance education at the different levels and the choice of school inputs toward efficiency and equity

country portfolios in open economy macro models this paper develops a simple approximation method for computing equilibrium portfolios in dynamic general equilibrium open economy macro models the method is widely applicable simple to implement and gives analytical solutions for equilibrium portfolio positions in any combination or types of asset it can be used in models with any number of assets whether markets are complete or incomplete and can be applied to stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models of any dimension so long as the model is amenable to a solution using standard approximation methods we first illustrate the approach using a simple two asset endowment economy model and then show how the results extend to the case of any number of assets and general economic structure

does financial globalization promote risk sharing article i nfo in theory one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing in this paper we provide an empirical evaluation of the patterns of risk sharing among different groups of countries and examine how international financial integration has affected the evolution of these patterns using a variety of empirical techniques we conclude that there is at best a modest degree of international risk sharing and certainly nowhere near the levels predicted by theory in addition only industrial countries have attained better risk sharing outcomes during the recent period of globalization developing countries have by and large been shut out of this benefit even emerging market economies many of which have reduced capital controls and all of which have witnessed large increases in cross border capital flows have seen little change in their ability to share risk we find that the composition of flows may help explain why emerging markets have not been able to realize this presumed benefi to f financial globalization in particular our results suggest that portfolio debt which had dominated the external liability stocks of most emerging markets until recently is not conducive to risk sharing

defending gibrat s law as a long run regularity according to gibrat s law of proportionate effect the growth rate of a given firm is independent of its size at the beginning of the period examined while earlier studies tended to confirm the law more recent research generally rejects it this article reconciles these two streams of literature taking into account the role of market selection and learning in reshaping a given population of firms through time consistently with previous studies we find that gibrat s law has to be rejected ex ante since smaller firms tend to grow faster than their larger counterparts however a significant convergence toward gibrat like behavior can be detected ex post this finding is an indication that market selection cleans the original population of firms so that the resulting industrial core does not depart from a gibrat like pattern of growth from a theoretical point of view this result is consistent with those models based on passive and active learning and can be seen as a defense of the validity of the law in the long run

earnings schooling ability and cognitive skills conventional estimates now available for a large number of countries generally indicate that the social returns to education are positive large and competitive with returns to investment in physical capital that such estimates are good guides for public resource allocation has however been questioned the heart of the problem lies in the interpretation of the positive relationship between the education and the earnings of workers whether as the conventional estimates assume the coefficient of the education variable in the earnings function measures the effect on the productivity of workers of human capital acquired in school it has been hypothesized that education in part or instead represents screening for native ability and motivation or credentialism and that as a consequence conventional measures of the social benefit of education are substantially upward biased 2 in this paper we attempt to distinguish the influence on earnings of cognitive achievement native ability and years of education as a means of adjudicating the human capital screening and credentialist hypotheses our econometric analysis is based on two rigorously comparable micro data sets from kenya and tanzania generated by surveys of the urban wage labor force specifically for this study these data sets contain the usual variables found in earnings function estimates of the benefits of schooling individual earnings years of education and years of employment experience in addition they contain two variables measures of the worker s cognitive skills and of his or her reasoning ability not previously found in studies of developing countries and only rarely found in studies of the education earnings relationship in developed countries 3 with these variables we can estimate the direct effects on earnings of cognitive skills ability and years of schooling by using them to estimate educational production functions and educational attainment functions and linking these functions with the earnings function in a recursive framework we can also assess the various indirect effects on earnings of ability and years of schooling having data sets from two countries very similar with respect to size resource endowments structure of production and employment and level of development means that not only can we subject our results to the usual statistical tests but we can also assess their replicability both kenya and tanzania have nearly achieved the objective of universal primary education while university enrollments remain at less than 1 percent of the relevant age group the important policy issues re boissiere development research department the world bank 1818 h street washington d c 20433 knight institute of economics and statistics oxford university sabot williams college williamstown ma 01267 we are grateful to the educational testing service of princeton for the design of tests used in this study and to j armitage j behrman j hausman d hendry d jamison and an anonymous referee for their insights and advice helpful comments were also received from participants in seminars at oxford and yale universities the views presented here are our own they should not be interpreted as reflecting those of the world bank george psacharopoulos 1973 1981 contains a listing of 44 countries in which rate of return studies had been conducted and of the estimates obtained 2for instance kenneth arrow 1973 mark blaug 1976 samuel bowles and herbert gintis 1976 john riley 1979 michael spence 1976 and lester thurow 1975 3for attempts to control for ability and or for cognitive achievement in studies for the united states see jere behrman et al 1980 gary chamberlain and zvi griliches 1977 griliches and william mason 1972 michael olneck 1977 paul taubman and terence wales 1974 taubman 1975 and david wise 1975 see also the survey articles by griliches 1977 1979 in most instances the data refer to special subgroups in the population and clear distinction cannot be made between natural ability and cognitive skills acquired in school

international real business cycles we ask whether a two country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles with this question in mind we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data the most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries in the data outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions in the model we see the opposite

does gibrat s law hold evidence from canadian retail and manufacturing firms this paper investigates the validity of gibrat s law holding for firms in manufacturing and retail trade sectors the object is to expand our knowledge of gibrat s law to include non manufacturing firms a unique longitudinal firm level database which contains information on canadian incorporated establishments enables the inter industry comparison the findings of the analysis are that gibrat s law is violated in both manufacturing and retail sectors violations of gibrat s law for both sectors include i growth rates that depend on firm size ii growth variability that depends on firm size and iii a negative persistence of firm growth finally age effects or selection effects are not the causes of these violations

returns to investment in education a global update the author updates compilations of rate of return estimates to investment in education published since 1985 and discusses methodological issues surrounding those estimates some key patterns among the three main levels of education primary education continues to exhibit the highest social profitability in all world regions private returns are considerably higher than social returns because of the public subsidization of education the degree of public subsidy increases with the level of education which is regressive social and private returns at all levels generally decline by the level of a country s per capita income overall the returns to female education are higher than those to male education but at individual levels of education the pattern is more mixed the returns to the academic secondary school track are higher than the vocational track since unit cost of vocational education is much higher and the returns for those who work in the private competitive sector of the economy are higher than in the public noncompetitive sector and the returns in the self employment unregulated sector of the economy are higher than in the dependent employment sector controversies in the literature are discussed in the light of the new evidence the undisputable and universal positive correlation between education and earnings can be interpreted in many ways the causation issue on whether education really affects earnings can be answered only with experimental data generated by randomly exposing different people to various amounts of education given the fact that moral and pragmatic considerations prevent the generation of such pure data researchers have to make do with indirect inferences or natural experiments some have been attempted the author looks at the research on overeducation or surplus schooling the conclusions reinforce earlier patterns they confirm that primary education continues to be the number one investment priority in developing countries they also show that educating females is marginally more profitable than educating males that the academic secondary school curriculum is a better investment than the technical vocational tract and that the returns to education obey the same rules as investment in conventional capital that is they decline as investment is expanded