user cost changes unemployment and home ownership evidence from spain this paper develops a macroeconomic model that permits analysis of the relationship between unemployment and home ownership rates using aggregate data at the provincial level within spain besides other influential variables such as the changes of the relative user costs of owning and renting or household life cycle attributes the model constructed permits the authors to question the evidence of oswald nickell and layard and partially of green and hendershott that home ownership leads to higher unemployment the results point out that taking into account the simultaneity determination issue and reducing the omitted variable bias a higher unemployment discourages home ownership

analysis of the dynamics of housing tenure choice in britain abstract the study uses data from the 1958 birth cohort collected in the british national child development study to model the dynamics of people s first entry to either owner occupation or tenancy in social housing the two major tenures in britain the effects of lifetime earnings prospects family background a person s own spells of unemployment the regional unemployment rate and regional relative house prices on the timing and pattern of first entry are estimated in the context of a competing risk hazard model it also shows that given the observed matrix of subsequent tenure transitions these impacts on the timing and destination of first major tenure also have important effects on the number of years which a person spends in each tenure over his her life

free to trade democracies autocracies and international trade trade relations we address this issue by analyzing the relationship between regime type and trade policy in a formal model of commercial policy we establish that the ratification responsibility of the legislature in democratic states leads pairs of democracies to set trade barriers at a lower level than mixed country pairs composed of an autocracy and a democracy we test this hypothesis by analyzing the effects of regime type on trade during the period from 1960 to 1990 the results of this analysis accord with our argument democratic pairs have had much more open trade relations than mixed pairs t he effects of domestic political institutions on trade policy have long been a source of controversy among social scientists despite the widespread interest that this debate has prompted however remarkably few studies have addressed the links between political regime type and commercial policy 1 most work on the political economy of trade policy that examines institutional factors focuses only on variations in policy among democracies and avoids comparing democracies with other types of regimes moreover many analyses of trade barriers especially those by economists ignore the effects of domestic political

explaining instability in the stability and growth pact the contribution of member state power and euroskepticism to the euro crisis the stability and growth pact clearly failed to prevent the euro crisis we contend that the failure was due largely to the ability of the member states to undermine the pact s operation the european commission served as a watchdog to monitor fiscal performance the member states themselves however collectively had the ability to change the content of the reports for individual states we confirm the expectation that powerful member states had the most success in undermining the role of the commission perhaps more surprisingly we find supporting evidence for our argument that governments with euroskeptic populations behind them were also more successful in weakening the commission s warnings these results have broader theoretical implications concerning which mechanisms explain country specific outcomes under a shared rule another contribution is the creation of a new data set of european commission assessments of member state economic programs and council of minister revisions

taxation and housing old questions new answers this paper sketches how the tax reforms of the 1980s affected the incentives and distortions associated with tax policy toward housing markets there are three principal conclusions 1 reductions in marginal tax rates particularly for high income households reduced the tax induced distortion in the user cost of owner occupied housing this lowered the deadweight losses associated with the favorable tax treatment of homeownership 2 the increase in the standard deduction in the tax reform act of 1986 tra86 removed several million middle income homeowners who previously itemized from the ranks of itemizers for these households tra86 raised the marginal cost of owner occupied housing these changes also exacerbated the regressive nature of the mortgage interest subsidy in 1988 more than half of the tax losses associated with mortgage interest deductions accrued to the 8 of taxpayers with the highest economic incomes 3 tra86 reduced incentives for rental housing investment contributing to the decline in new multifamily housing starts from 500 000 per year in 1985 to less than 150 000 in 1991 in the long run these policies will lead to higher rents this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

econometric studies in health economics a survey of the british literature this paper provides a survey of british applied econometric work in the field of health economics as well as reviewing the literature it suggests some avenues for future research it covers six main areas the supply of health care the demand for health care non medical influences on health market and non price rationing evaluation of health care systems and planning budgeting and monitoring mechanisms

a comparison of unemployment income and mortality interaction for five european countries the relationship between unemployment and health status is examined in a comparative study of five european countries using a time series model the hypothesis considered in this paper is that the secular decline in mortality rates can be attributed to the secular rise in real per capita income and that the remaining fluctuations in mortality rates can be explained by cyclical movements in income and variations in unemployment the data concern the federal republic of germany france italy sweden and ireland

real exchange rate overvaluation and wto dispute initiation in developing countries why and when do developing countries file trade disputes at the world trade organization wto although financial conditions have long been considered an important driver of trade policy they have been largely absent from the literature on trade disputes we argue that developing country governments bring more trade dispute to the wto when overvalued real exchange rates put exporters at a competitive disadvantage this dynamic is most prevalent in countries where large foreign currency debt burdens discourage nominal currency devaluations that would otherwise serve exporters interests our findings provide an explanation for differences in dispute participation rates among developing countries and also suggest a new link between exchange rate regimes and trade policy

who pays the bar tab beer consumption and economic growth in the united states what drug provides americans with the greatest pleasure and the greatest pain the answer hands down is alcohol the pain comes not only from drunk driving and lost lives but also addiction family strife crime violence poor health and squandered human potential young and old drinkers and abstainers alike all are affected every american is paying for alcohol abuse phillip j cook paying the tab the costs and benefits of alcohol control 2007 i introduction alcohol consumption has severe social and economic consequences lost productivity disability early death crime family neglect personality deterioration to name a few cook 2007 at the individual level the effects of alcohol consumption have been explored considerably by researchers in different fields including economics medicine public health criminology and sociology however few studies have examined the economic impact of alcohol use at the aggregate level probably due to the research deficiency regarding its aggregate effects some disagreement exists about the overall net benefits of alcohol use on the one hand scholars who have done extensive research on individual outcomes claim that the overall costs of alcohol use outweigh its benefits for example cook and moore 2002 120 state in their review article the production and sale of alcoholic beverages account for a small share of national product in the united states and in other advanced economies however the deleterious effects of alcohol consumption on health and safety constitute a substantial economic burden reducing our overall standard of living on the other hand organizations formed by the producers and distributors of alcoholic beverages claim that the alcoholic beverage industry contributes significantly to the u s economy through job creation and tax revenues according to beer serves america 2011 an organization sponsored by the beer institute and the national beer wholesalers association nbwa directly and indirectly the beer industry employs approximately 1 8 million americans paying them over 71 billion in wages and benefits the industry pays over 44 billion in business personal and consumption taxes including 5 3 billion in excise taxes and 5 8 billion in sales gross receipts and other taxes 1 similarly the distilled spirits council of the united states discus 1999 the national trade association representing america s leading distillers and about 70 of all distilled spirits brands sold in the united states states that the alcohol beverage industry is a major contributor to the u s economy through job creation wages and taxes 2 room and jernigan 2000 point out that the benefits reaped from the alcohol industry in terms of economic development should be weighed against the negative impacts on economic development in addition to public health they go on to say that alcohol s contribution to total production can vary tremendously from country to country generating 3 of total manufacturing value added in argentina or the netherlands but as little as 0 07 in iran aside from the aforementioned contributions of the alcohol industry to the economy often cited by the industry itself supply side efforts also play a role in the consumption of alcohol this can be done through influencing government regulation of the market for alcohol and selling cheap alcohol in bulk which has a devastating public health impact stockwell and crosbie 2001 indeed the economic burden of excessive alcohol consumption has been found to be substantial recently estimated at 223 5 billion bouchery et al 2011 although a few studies have examined the impact of macroeconomic conditions on drinking prevalence and patterns such as those by ruhm and black 2002 and ruhm 1995 we are not aware of any studies exploring the impact of alcohol consumption on economic growth

do drinkers know when to say when an empirical analysis of drunk driving this paper presents empirical evidence that an individual s decision to drive while drunk is negatively affected by the expected full price of driving drunk the analysis usa a unique data set containing information on self reported drunk driving matched to state level drunk driving policies as well as to state excise taxes on beer these are hypothesized and found to affect drunk driving further we find interesting racial differences but surprisingly small differences by gender in the effect of socioeconomic and policy variables on drunk driving propensities

housing tenure and labor market impacts the search goes on abstract we develop two search theoretic models emphasizing firm entry to examine the oswald hypothesis the idea that homeownership is linked to inferior labor market outcomes and compare their predictions to three extant theories the five models have surprisingly different predictions about the labor market at both the aggregate and micro levels using a suitable instrumental variable strategy we estimate both micro and aggregate level regression models of wages and unemployment and compare the estimates to those predictions we find that while homeowners are less likely to be unemployed they also have lower wages all else equal compared to renters in addition higher regional homeownership rates are associated with a greater probability of individual worker unemployment and higher wages the outcome of a horserace between our new search theoretic models is mixed the wage posting model predicts observed unemployment impacts while a bargaining variant does a better job explaining observed wages and aggregate labor market outcomes overall we conclude that firm behavior is important for understanding the labor market impacts of homeownership because this is the case regional homeownership rates are not good instruments for individual tenure choice in empirical work and while individual homeowners may have inferior labor market outcomes as compared to renters from the viewpoint of society higher homeownership rates may result in greater job creation and overall production among other benefits

housing tenure job mobility and unemployment in the uk this article examines the effects of housing tenure on individuals job and unemployment durations in the uk we examine job to job transitions and transitions from unemployment we take account of whether or not the arrival of a job was synonymous with a non local residential move tenure endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity we find that home ownership is a constraint for the employed and public renting is more of a constraint for the unemployed employed home owners have a lower transition into employment with a distant move and unemployed public renters have a lower probability of gaining employment in more distant labour markets the nature of housing tenure has long been blamed for discouraging spatial mobility and thereby having an impact upon labour market outcomes in the early 1980s in the uk the main culprit was deemed to be local authority housing mccormick 1983 hughes and mccormick 1981 1987 examined the longer distance migration rates of those in local authority housing and found that they had lower longer distance migration rates compared to both owner occupiers and those in private rented accommodation although the latest research suggests that these effects may have lessened hughes and mccormick 2000 the relative immobility of public renters may stem from public housing rents being below market rates the restricted transferability within public housing high waiting lists and security of tenure public renters are then locked in and face higher costs if they accept a job that involves a long distance move more recently the blame has been pinned on private home ownership oswald 1996 1999 in a series of papers using macro time series and cross section data for oecd countries and regions within a number of those countries has argued that home own ership causes unemployment one explanation revolves around the reduced mobility of home owners relative to private renters owing to the costs of buying and selling homes subsequent and arguably more sophisticated micro econometric tests have placed doubt upon the alleged relationship coulson and fisher 2002 for the us find that unemployment duration is shorter for home owners relative to renters though neither is unobserved heterogeneity nor the endogenous nature of housing tenure accounted for van leuvensteijn and koning 2004 do account for the endogeneity of home ownership and find using dutch data that employed home owners are less likely to become unemployed relative to employed renters more recently munch et al 2006a using danish data find shorter unemployment spells amongst home owners compared to renters after controlling for the endogeneity of home ownership

can police deter drunk driving economic studies using aggregate data generally find that higher taxes are the most effective policy to reduce drunk driving while criminologists report strong evidence supporting law enforcement measures in policy evaluations this paper evaluates these differing perspectives using the aggregate data that is typically used in the economic literature ols and fixed effects models show that police can affect the probability of arrest for drunk driving and in combination with evidence from dui deterrence experiments this suggests that the failure of economic models to detect deterrence reflects the lack of systematic and sustained police efforts against dui

traffic accidents deaths and alcohol consumption the main goal of this article is to analyse the relationship existing among prices of alcoholic beverages alcohol consumption and traffic fatalities for the spanish autonomous communities during the time interval 1998 to 2002 among the main results we highlight a positive correlation between alcohol consumption and traffic mortality rate basically governments implement two kinds of policies to reduce the traffic mortality rate one is oriented to control the supply of alcohol by increasing alcohol taxes the other is oriented to preserve traffic security increasing the number of sanctions for traffic rule infraction we find evidence that both policies exert a positive influence in the reduction of traffic fatalities there is no empirical evidence to indicate that being a novice driver increases the tendency to be involved in a mortal traffic accident

the politics of foreign direct investment into developing countries increasing fdi through international trade agreements the flow of foreign direct investment into developing countries varies greatly across countries and over time the political factors that affect these flows are not well understood focusing on the relationship between trade and investment we argue that international trade agreements gatt wto and preferential trade agreements ptas provide mechanisms for making commitments to foreign investors about the treatment of their assets thus reassuring investors and increasing investment these international commitments are more credible than domestic policy choices because reneging on them is more costly statistical analyses for 122 developing countries from 1970 to 2000 support this argument developing countries that belong to the wto and participate in more ptas experience greater fdi inflows than otherwise controlling for many factors including domestic policy preferences and taking into account possible endogeneity joining international trade agreements allows developing countries to attract more fdi and thus increase economic growth

crises and human capital accumulation this paper studies the effects of crises on human capital formation theoretically a crisis undermines total factor productivity which reduces the return to working and to accumulating physical capital if the crisis is temporary young agents will study now and work later human capital rises to test our model we rely on inflation crises as our main empirical proxy using gmm panel procedures our analysis for 86 countries in 1970 2000 confirms the positive effects of crises on human capital our main findings survive several robustness tests jel classification e31 d90 ce memoire etudie les effets des crises sur la formation de capital humain theoriquement une crise mine la productivite totale des facteurs de production ce qui reduit le rendement sur le travail et l accumulation du capital physique si la crise est temporaire les jeunes agents vont alors se mettre aux etudes et decident de travailler plus tard le capital humain s accroit pour mettre au test ce modele on etudie les crises inflationnistes comme reference a l aide des procedures d analyse de donnees de panels a la gmm l etude de 86 pays pour la periode 1970 2000 confirme les effets positifs des crises sur le capital humain les principaux resultats survivent bien a divers tests de robustesse

promises or policies an experimental analysis of international agreements and audience reactions a key assumption of audience costs theories of crisis bargaining and international cooperation is that audience members have strong preferences for consistency between their leader s commitments and actual policy choices however audiences also have strong preferences over the policy choices themselves regardless of their consistency with past commitments i conducted a randomized survey experiment to evaluate the magnitude of consistency and policy effects in the context of international agreements over trade policy respondents with expressed policy preferences whether supporting or opposing free trade have muted reactions to learning that their leader has broken an agreement only respondents with no opinion on trade policy are affected by learning that their leader s policy is inconsistent with prior commitments this suggests that constituents underlying preferences limit the degree to which audience costs influence policymakers calculations

a time series analysis of unemployment and health the case of birth outcomes in new york city abstract the paper presents an aggregate time series analysis of unemployment and infant health that improves on previous work in several ways first the data is monthly as opposed to annual second the measure of health the percentage of low birthweight births and the health inputs are rare specific third because a pregnancy is limited to at most ten months we can specify a lag length with a greater degree of confidence we find no cyclical variation in the percentage of low birthweight births the results are insensitive to changes in lag length health inputs and functional form

economic conditions and alcohol problems this study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and two alcohol related outcomes liquor consumption and highway vehicle fatalities fixed effect models are estimated for the 48 contiguous states over the 1975 1988 time period alcohol consumption and traffic deaths vary procyclically with a major portion of the effect of economic downturns attributed to reductions in incomes rather than employment the intake of hard liquor is the most sensitive to the state of the macroeconomy there is no evidence however that fluctuations in economic conditions have a disproportionate impact on the drunk driving of young adults

do council housing policies reduce migration between regions data from the 1973 general household survey of great britain are used to examine whether the council house system which currently provides a dwelling for one british family in every three tends to discourage long distance migration controls are introduced for various socioeconomic variables and the importance of occupation sector of employment age and education in explaining migration is discussed comparisons are also made between local movements and long distance migration the findings indicate that over longer distances council tenants have much lower migration rates than owner occupiers

lobbying and agricultural trade policy in the united states the authors study whether political campaign contributions influence agricultural protection in the united states in the manner suggested by the political economy model of grossman and helpman 1994 this is the first attempt to test this model using agricultural data the authors test the model using a detailed cross sectional data set of agricultural protection subsidies and political action committee pac contributions in the late 1990s the model is qualitatively affirmed by the data they make a novel attempt to solve a puzzle about the model s quantitative implications also found in recent studies this solution makes the simple model consistent with the complicated decisionmaking process in real world government the results imply the underpinnings of a political economy equilibrium that will be hard to dislodge

breath testing and highway fatality rates this paper presents an empirical investigation of the effect of a preliminary breath test law on highway fatality rates a preliminary breath test law reduces the procedural problems associated with obtaining evidence of drunk driving and thus increases the probability that a drunk driver will be arrested according to the theory of deterrence increasing the probability of arrest for drunk driving will reduce the occurrence of this behaviour the data set employed to test the theory is a time series from 1980 to 1985 of cross sections of the 48 contiguous states of the united states four highway fatality rates are used as measures of drunk driving the effect of the breath test law was estimated using four independent variable models and 12 dummy variable models the four independent variable models were also estimated using learner s specification test the purpose of using these alternative specifications and learner s specification test was to examine the breath test coefficients for specification bi

home ownership and unemployment in the us in this paper we scrutinise oswald s evidence that home ownership and unemployment are correlated across the us states in order to abstract from state fixed effects in levels we analyse the cross sectional variation in changes in home ownership and unemployment rates between 1970 and 1990 after duplicating nearly oswald s result we illustrate the importance of weighting the state observations by the fraction of total us households in 1970 that resided in the respective states and of abstracting from the ageing of the population between 1970 and 1990 this causes oswald s correlation to to disappear secondly we estimate the relationship for six different age classes and for household heads and total population we find that the relationship is non existent for both young households and old households but exists for middle aged households young households have accumulated little wealth and have had less time to become attached to the geographical area than middle aged households and thus are more

the political economy of nontariff barriers a cross national analysis nontariff barriers to trade are most pervasive when deteriorating macroeconomic conditions give rise to demands for protection by pressure groups when countries are sufficiently large to give policymakers incentives to impose protection and when domestic institutions enhance the ability of public officials to act on these incentives statistical results based on a sample of advanced industrial countries during the 1980s support the argument that the incidence of nontariff barriers tends to be greatest when the preferences of pressure groups and policymakers converge more attention should be devoted to the interaction between societal and statist factors in cross national studies of trade policy

a note on economic conditions and alcohol problems this paper reexamines the effect of the business cycle on alcohol consumption using u s state level analysis introduced by rhum ruhm c j 1995 economic conditions and alcohol problems journal of health economics 14 583 603 using an extended panel this analysis finds that ruhm s estimates are biased and inconsistent due to the problem of non stationarity in alcohol consumption and state economic condition time series corrected estimation using logarithmic first differences confirms ruhm s original finding of pro cyclical alcohol consumption but these results unlike ruhm s are robust to sample period

a theory of rational addiction we develop a theory of rational addiction in which rationality means a consistent plan to maximize utility over time strong addiction to a good requires a big effect of past consumption of the good on current consumption such powerful complementarities cause some steady states to be unstable they are an important part of our analysis because even small deviations from the consumption at an unstable steady state can lead to large cumulative rises over time in addictive consumption or to rapid falls in consumption to abstention our theory also implies that cold turkey is used to end strong addictions that addicts often go on binges that addicts respond more to permanent than to temporary changes in prices of addictive goods and that anxiety and tensions can precipitate an addiction

firms governments and wto adjudication japan s selection of wto disputes what explains the selection of cases for wto adjudication this article explores the business conditions under which industries lobby their home government to use the wto adjudication process and the political factors that influence government decisions it explains the industry pattern of selection for international trade disputes as a function of the velocity of the business environment while wto adjudication is seen as costly and slow a positive ruling brings broad benefits in terms of deterrence against future discrimination firms in static industries will invest in wto dispute settlement to achieve these benefits but firms in industries shaped by dynamic competition have high opportunity costs that make them less willing to pursue adjudication this argument accounts for why there are fewer wto cases about electronics industry issues than there are likely incidences of protectionist measures since japan is a leading exporter and provides a government report with unique data on potential wto disputes it was chosen to test the argument in greater depth interviews with japanese business officials and statistical analysis of an original data set provide support for the argument the authors conclude that the passive attitude toward wto adjudication by japan s largest export industry electronics and the sensitivity of japan s diplomatic relations with china have constrained the cases that japan files these findings suggest that the effectiveness of the wto for dispute settlement is conditional upon the time horizon of the industry and the political relations among members

does traffic congestion reduce employment growth abstract this paper examines the impact of traffic congestion on employment growth in large u s metropolitan areas an historic highway plan and political variables serve as instruments for endogenous congestion the results show that high initial levels of congestion dampen subsequent employment growth this finding suggests that increasing the efficiency of public infrastructure can spur local economies counterfactual estimates show that the employment growth returns from modest capacity expansion or congestion pricing are substantial

procrastination and obedience in this lecture i shall focus on situations involving repeated decisions with time inconsistent behavior although each choice may be close to maximizing and therefore result in only small losses the cumulative effect of a series of repeated errors may be quite large thus in my examples decision makers are quite close to the intelligent well informed individuals usually assumed in economic analysis but cumulatively they make seriously wrong decisions that do not occur in standard textbook economics this lecture discusses and illustrates several pathological modes of individual and group behavior procrastination in decision making undue obedience to authority membership of seemingly normal individuals in deviant cult groups and escalation of commitment to courses of action that are clearly unwise in each case individuals choose a series of current actions without fully appreciating how those actions will affect future perceptions and behavior the standard assumption of rational forwardlooking utility maximizing is violated the nonindependence of errors in decision making in the series of decisions can be explained with the concept from cognitive psychology of undue salience or vividness for example present benefits and costs may have undue salience relative to future costs

houses and or jobs ownership and the labour market in belgian districts isebaert d heylen f and smolders c houses and or jobs ownership and the labour market in belgian districts regional studies a j oswald argues that high rates of homeownership may imply inferior labour market outcomes using a panel of forty two belgian districts since the 1970s and accounting for other key determinants of employment this paper confirms the oswald hypothesis a 1 percentage point rise in the rate of ownership in a district implies a statistically significant fall in the employment rate by about 0 35 percentage points this negative effect declines in the fraction of the high skilled in a district the results underscore the importance of controlling for unobserved district specific fixed effects and common time effects and of appropriately dealing with endogeneity

the impact of health status on the duration of unemployment spells and the implications for studies of the impact of unemployment on health status this paper examines the impact of health status on the duration of unemployment spells and finds that individuals with impaired health will have significantly longer unemployment spells these longer unemployment spells will result in the stock of unemployed being composed of a larger proportion of individuals with impaired health than the stock of employed although this difference in composition between the stock of unemployed and stock of employed can account for some of the observed difference in mortality rates it cannot explain all of the difference observed in earlier studies

demand for health a generalised grossman model the demand for health and medical care is analysed within a generalised grossman type health investment model its underlying assumptions are shown to differ from those employed earlier in a manner which avoids some of the criticisms levelled at grossman s model the comparative static predictions of the generalised model are examined and it is demonstrated that most previous health investment models are derivable from it also the present model is applicable to a new wider range of problems thus increasing the scope of economic explanations of health behaviour

the effect of home ownership on labor mobility in the netherlands abstract in various macro studies home ownership is found to hamper job mobility and to increase unemployment this paper addresses similar issues but uses a micro econometric framework where both individual job mobility as well as the probability of being homeowner are modeled simultaneously using a panel of individual labor and housing market histories for the period 1989 1998 we estimate a nonparametric model of both job durations and home ownership we do not find homeowners to change less from jobs than tenants instead our results suggest that the housing decision is driven by job commitment and not the reverse we do however find homeowners to be less vulnerable to unemployment

the dispersion of us state unemployment rates the role of market and non market equilibrium factors partridge m d and rickman d s 1997 the dispersion of us state unemployment rates the role of market and nonmarket equilibrium factors reg studies 31 593 607 european nations particularly the uk have been observed to have persistent dispersion in regional unemployment rates the dispersion is often hypothesized to be caused by centralized collective bargaining and government policies that limit regional labour market adjustments although the us labour market is considered more exible possessing higher rates of labour mobility and less government mandates there also is persistent dispersion in us state unemployment rates this paper investigates the factors that underlie the persistent dispersion in us state unemployment rates the factors examined include amenities crime education home ownership and residency patterns industry composition and international migration partridge m d et rickman d s 1997 la dispersion des taux de chomage aux etats unis sur le plan des etats l importa

aggregation and the estimated effects of economic conditions on health this paper considers the relationship between economic conditions and health with a focus on different approaches to geographic aggregation after reviewing the tradeoffs associated with more and less disaggregated analyses i update earlier state level analyses of mortality and infant health and then consider how the estimated effects vary when the analysis is conducted at differing levels of geographic aggregation this analysis reveals that the results are sensitive to the level of geographic aggregation with more disaggregated analyses particularly county level analyses routinely producing estimates that are smaller in magnitude further analyses suggest this is due to spillover effects of economic conditions on health outcomes across counties

the net effect of an alcohol tax increase on death rates in middle age alcohol excise taxation increases prices and reduces per capita consumption cook and george tauchen 1982 christopher j ruhm 1995 douglas j young and agnieszka bielinska kwapisz 2003 in principle a taxinduced reduction in per capita consumption of alcohol may be the result of both a reduction in the prevalence of alcohol abuse and the prevalence of moderate drinking with opposite effects on mortality rates the net effect on mortality could be either positive or negative and has not been established empirically some specific mechanisms by which drinking creates health risks and benefits are well documented for all age groups episodes of alcohol intoxication cause death from overdose or from injury resulting from accident or intentional violence ralph hingson and michael winter 2003 chronic heavy drinking may cause death due to organ damage including liver cirrhosis jurgen rehm et al 2003 on the other hand chronic drinking confers some health benefits on middle aged people defined here as persons aged 35 69 alcohol acts as an anti cholesterol drug and epidemiological evidence suggests that moderate drinking is associated with reduced mortality from heart disease and stroke giovanni corrao et al 2000 thus an increase in alcohol excise taxes may reduce mortality rates to the extent that it induces a lower incidence of risky drinking and lower prevalence of chronic heavy drinking but if older people drink too little in response to higher prices then the result may be increased cardiovascular death rates in what follows we combine new estimates of the effect of per capita alcohol consumption on drinking patterns with a summary estimate from the epidemiology literature of relative risks associated with different levels of drinking we calculate that a permanent reduction of 1 percent in alcohol consumption per capita induced by a tax increase or some other mechanism would have little net effect on mortality in middle age our sensitivity experiments suggest that the effect may be positive or negative but is always close to zero since there is no health benefit from drinking for younger people and considerable risks we conclude that the public health case for increased alcohol taxation is strong

the pass through of beer taxes to prices evidence from state and federal tax changes i introduction alcohol excise taxes are a common form of taxation used by the federal government and state governments alike serving the dual purpose of raising revenue and protecting the public health through reduced consumption 1 from a policy perspective it is crucial to understand how alcohol taxes are passed through to prices if higher taxes are to be levied standard economic theory predicts that taxes are at most fully passed through in a competitive market where firms are price takers however the market for beer in the united states can be best categorized as an oligopoly and beer stands out as the most prevalent type of alcohol consumed in the country 2 theories in imperfect competition suggest various possibilities of tax shifting including over and under shifting to prices in oligopolistic markets as fullerton and metcalf 2002 discuss an over shifting of tax can occur because of both the existence of market power and the strategic behavior of firms under shifting is also possible when the burden of higher taxes is shifted to labor in the form of lower wages or to other factors of production ultimately the amount of the tax pass through is an empirical question and therefore the main goal of this study is to provide new estimates of the magnitude of the beer tax pass through to prices in the united states when legislators consider changing beer taxes precise and recent estimates of the pass through rate are required to understand how the tax change will affect retail prices to our knowledge there are only a few existing studies that empirically estimate the pass through rate of alcohol taxes to prices in the united states using quarterly state level data from 1982 to 1997 young and kwapisz 2002 find that taxes on beer spirits and wine are over shifted to retail prices specifically the authors estimate that a 1 increase in the tax per barrel of beer increases the retail beer price by a range of 1 67 1 88 kenkel 2005 uses the 2002 tax hike in alaska to perform before after analyses and concludes that alcohol taxes are more than fully passed through to prices kenkel finds that the average pass through rate for off premise consumption is 2 14 2 03 and 1 57 for budweiser bud light and heineken respectively although a novel study in various ways the lack of a control group and the study s focus just on alaska raises questions regarding the external validity of the results stehr 2007 uses price data from the third quarter editions of the american chamber of commerce research association accra from 1990 to 2004 and finds that the magnitude of the pass through of beer taxes to prices is 0 94 this point estimate suggests that beer taxes are almost fully passed through to prices and a confidence interval around the estimate includes values greater than one however stehr s study only includes state and year fixed effects in the model as additional control variables and excludes other potential determinants of both alcohol prices and taxes also it is unclear as to why the study only uses the third quarter editions of accra when tax changes may occur any time during the year reflecting on the existing studies in the united states it must be emphasized that the most recent data used ends in 2004 since then the beer industry has experienced two major mergers of leading producers sabmiller and coors in 2007 followed by anheuser busch and inbev in 2008 given this restructuring within the industry new estimates of the tax pass through rate are warranted in terms of studies outside the united states bergman and hansen 2010 analyze the tax pass through rate in denmark using the liquor tax cut in 2003 the beer tax increase in 1997 and the beer tax cut in 2005 the authors find evidence of over shifting during the incidence of tax hikes and under shifting during the events of tax cuts carbonnier 2013 studies differences between the ad valorem taxes and per unit excise taxes in france and finds that the per unit excise taxes are over shifted whereas ad valorem taxes are under shifted to prices

the allocative efficiency of government expenditure some comparative tests this paper examines whether observed government expenditures are consistent with optimising behaviour in australia portugal sweden and the u k expenditures are treated as intermediate goods producing desired outputs e g health education security conditional on demographic variables these outputs are arguments in an objective function optimised subject to a budget constraint optimisation then implies testable homogeneity symmetry and negativity restrictions on the derived demand functions these were estimated using the deaton muellbauer aids system on time series data for four categories of expenditure in each country and the restrictions tested with both homogeneity and symmetry being accepted for sweden

unemployment questions and some answers in more or less every country in the oecd unemployment was lower in the decades following the second world war than in any other period of comparable length either before or since for example in britain unemployment has exceeded 5 in every peacetime decade from 1850 onwards except for the 1950s and 1960s alternatively as we can see in table 1 p 779 average unemployment in the 1980s and 90s is higher generally much higher than in the 1960s in every country considered why this is so is one of the questions which underlies this paper a second question which is also illustrated in the unemployment numbers presented in table 1 p 779 concerns the causes of the enormous variation in unemployment rates across the oecd countries as we shall see these are difficult questions the first in particular is one for which we do not have a complete answer by this i do not mean that we do not have theories which are broadly consistent with these numbers in fact we have theories consistent with more or less any numbers what we lack is a satisfactory empirical explanation of the time series pattern of oecd unemployment in what follows we remain focused on these two questions first considering the theoretical background and then looking at some possible answers we finish with some speculative conjectures on the first question

unemployment and mental health some evidence from panel data microdata are used in this paper to analyze the effects of unemployment on mental health the analysis is done in two steps first cross section data of labor force participants are analyzed it appears that the unemployed have worse mental health than the employed next panel data are used to control for fixed effects that is unobserved omitted variables that are constant over time the model is also specified to allow both the occurrence of and duration of unemployment to affect mental health then we cannot reject the hypothesis that there are no effects of unemployment on mental health however some sensitivity tests indicate that the precision of our estimates is rather low

health insurance coverage and the macroeconomy this paper investigates the relationship between the macroeconomy and health insurance coverage for non elderly americans we find that for men state unemployment rate is positively correlated with the probability of health insurance coverage in general and through an employer in particular and that these correlations are only partly explained by changes in employment status in contrast the insurance coverage of women and children appears to be insulated from fluctuations in the unemployment rate by public health insurance programs like medicaid and state children s health insurance program schip we estimate that 984 000 americans nearly all of whom were adult men lost health insurance due to macroeconomic conditions alone during the 2001 recession

competing for capital the diffusion of bilateral investment treaties 1960 2000 over the past forty five years bilateral investment treaties bits have become the most important international legal mechanism for the encouragement and governance of foreign direct investment the proliferation of bits during the past two decades in particular has been phenomenal these intergovernmental treaties typically grant extensive rights to foreign investors including protection of contractual rights and the right to international arbitration in the event of an investment dispute how can we explain the widespread adoption of bits we argue that the spread of bits is driven by international competition among potential host countries typically developing countries for foreign direct investment we propose a set of hypotheses that derive from such an explanation and develop a set of empirical tests that rely on network measures of economic competition as well as more indirect evidence of competitive pressures on the host to sign bits the evidence suggests that potential hosts are more likely to sign bits when their competitors have done so we find some evidence that coercion and learning play a role but less support for cultural explanations based on emulation our main finding is that the diffusion of bits is associated with competitive economic pressures among developing countries to capture a share of foreign investment we are agnostic at this point about the benefits of this competition for development for useful comments on earlier drafts of this article we thank bill bernhard bear braumoeller frank dobbin robert franzese jeffry frieden geoffrey garrett tom ginsburg jude hays lisa martin bob pahre mark ramsayer steven ratner susan rose ackerman and john sides for research assistance we thank elizabeth burden raechel groom and alexander noonan

the lasting effects of leaving school in an economic downturn on alcohol use the author tests whether leaving school in an economic downturn persistently affects alcohol use she models alcohol use in middle age as a function of the state unemployment rate at school leaving in the national longitudinal survey of youth 1979 cohort the results suggest that men but not women who leave school in an economic downturn consume more drinks and are more likely to report heavy and binge drinking than otherwise similar men findings are robust to addressing the endogeneity of the time and location of school leaving and contribute to the literature on the lasting consequences of leaving school in an economic downturn

financial market imperfections and home ownership a comparative study abstract we explore the determinants of the distribution of owner occupancy rates across age groups using a collection of microeconomic data on 14 oecd countries in most the survey is repeated over time this allows us to construct an international dataset merging data on 39 national household surveys with aggregate data on down payment ratios we find strong evidence that the availability of mortgage finance as measured by down payment ratios affects the distribution of owner occupancy rates across age groups especially at the young end the results are consistent with previous theoretical models and have important implications for the debate on the relation between saving and growth

domestic audience costs in international relations an experimental approach what makes international threats credible recent theories point to domestic audience costs the domestic price a leader would pay for making foreign threats and then backing down this article provides the first direct evidence of audi ence costs the analysis based on experiments embedded in public opinion surveys shows that audience costs exist across a wide range of conditions and increase with the level of escalation the costs are evident throughout the population and espe cially among politically active citizens who have the greatest potential to shape government policy finally preliminary evidence suggests that audience costs arise because citizens care about the international reputation of the country or leader these findings help identify how and under what conditions domestic audiences make commitments credible at the same time they demonstrate the promise of using ex periments to answer previously intractable questions in the field of international relations

residential mobility housing equity and the labour market henley a g 1998 residential mobility housing equity and the labour market economic journal 108 447 414 427

early literacy achievements population density and the transition to modern growth the transition from economic stagnation to sustained growth is often modeled thanks to population induced productivity improvements which are assumed rather than derived from primary assumptions in this paper the effect of population on productivity is derived from optimal behavior more precisely both the number and location of education facilities are chosen optimally by municipalities individuals determine their education investment depending on the distance to the nearest school and also on technical progress and longevity in this setting higher population density enables the set up costs of additional schools to be covered opening the possibility to reach higher educational levels using counterfactual experiments we find that one third of the rise in literacy can be directly attributed to the effect of density and one sixth is linked to higher longevity moreover the effect of population density in the model is consistent with the available evidence for england where it is shown that schools were established at a high rate over the period 1540 1620

what are the social benefits of homeownership experimental evidence for low income households abstract we estimate the social benefits of homeownership using an exogenous instrument based on randomly assigned treatment status from a field experiment that subsidized saving for home purchase for low income renters through individual development accounts idas this approach attempts to eliminate the potential correlation present in previous analyses between unobserved individual characteristics leading to homeownership and traits leading to provision of social capital or local amenities consistent with previous work we show that homeownership positively affects political engagement in simple probits instrumental variable probits however show no impact of homeownership on political involvement iv results for other social outcomes are less conclusive the analysis suggests that with the use of an exogenous instrument it is possible to generate results that are different from the previous literature our results also suggest that being eligible to open an ida did not spur households to provide more social capital or local amenities

the social and private micro level consequences of homeownership abstract this paper reviews the literature that describes the micro level economic and social consequences of homeownership we adopt an interdisciplinary approach and include studies from economics sociology geography political science psychology and other disciplines our focus is on the set of consequences of homeownership in developed countries our list of potential outcomes of homeownership includes the impact on household wealth and portfolio choice mobility labor force participation urban structure and segregation home maintenance political and social activities health demographics self esteem and child outcomes there is substantial evidence that homeownership has important effects on some household behaviors and outcomes however we find that much of the past 30 year s literature on consequences of homeowning is deficient from a theoretical or econometric perspective we suggest solutions and identify research gaps present in the literature

economic fluctuations and health outcome a panel analysis of asia pacific countries the purpose of this study is to assess the effects of economic fluctuations on health outcome by using data obtained from eight asia pacific countries over the period 1976 to 2003 and a fixed effects model to conduct the regression analysis the results of this study indicate that unemployment rate is negatively and significantly correlated with total mortality and mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases motor vehicle accidents and infant mortality these findings are consistent with the view that health may improve during economic downturns in addition suicide is found to move countercyclically with economic fluctuations socioeconomic factors such as age and gender also play important roles in affecting the mortality rates the results also show that unemployment has a stronger immediate and contemporaneous rather than a sustained effect on mortality rates finally this study concludes that the effects of economic fluctuations on health outcome tend to lead to erroneous conclusions if the fi

suspiciously timed trade disputes abstract this paper shows that electoral incentives crucially affect the initiation of trade disputes focusing on wto disputes filed by the united states during the 1995 2014 period we find that u s presidents are more likely to initiate a dispute in the year preceding their re election moreover u s trade disputes are more likely to involve industries that are important in swing states to explain these regularities we develop a theoretical model in which re election motives can lead an incumbent politician to file trade disputes to appeal to voters motivated by reciprocity

beer taxation and alcohol related traffic fatalities the majority of studies of alcohol related traffic fatalities find beer taxes to be an important policy variable this is surprising since beer taxes only have a small impact on consumption and heavy drinkers are the least responsive to prices this study shows that the tax relationship is not robust across data periods and that it reflects missing variable biases while lack of control for law enforcement efforts does not appear to bias tax coefficients failure to include determinants of alcohol consumption other than taxes and drinking age and or factors that simultaneously determine drinking behavior and political support for alcohol taxes apparently do

estimating a household production function heterogeneity the demand for health inputs and their effects on birth weight the household production literature emphasizes that technical or biological processes condition input selection by households in their production activities along with prices and income exogenous variations in health to the extent that they are perceived by individuals heterogeneity lead to correlations between inputs and health outcomes that cannot be used to derive causal conclusions therefore estimates of health technology must be obtained from a behavioral model in which health inputs are themselves choices consistent estimates are reported of the effect of endogenous inputs such as medical care smoking and fertility on birth weight and fetal growth in the presence of health heterogeneity

pro cyclical mortality across socioeconomic groups and health status abstract using variation across geographic regions a number of studies from the u s and other developed countries have found more deaths in economic upturns and less deaths in economic downturns we use data from regions in norway for 1977 2008 and find the same pro cyclical patterns using individual level register data for the identical population we find that disadvantaged socioeconomic groups are not hit harder by pro cyclical mortality than advantaged groups we also find that other indicators of deteriorated health than death like becoming disabled are pro cyclical overall our analysis suggests that pro cyclical mortality is rather related to deaths of people already in deteriorated health than to people of low socioeconomic status

audience features and the strategic timing of trade disputes if international institutions are such potent alarm mechanisms that mobilize procompliance domestic audiences as many existing theories argue why do countries wait so long before sounding the alarm world trade organization wto members often wait months or even years before objecting to their trading partners wto illegal barriers to turn a phrase trade cooperation delayed is trade cooperation denied so why wait to explain this variation i develop a theory of institutional alarm mechanisms in which 1 the preferences and strength of the audience hearing the alarm vary and 2 the decision to sound the alarm is strategic sounding the alarm is most valuable when strong audiences in the defendant country support compliance i test this prediction using competing risks models analyzing the timing of wto disputes against us tariff barriers consistent with the theory disputes are more likely during election years when macroeconomic indicators suggest broader support for free trade

employment unemployment and problem drinking the misuse of alcohol is estimated to result in enormous economic costs composed largely of reduced labor market productivity however there has been debate on this issue the purpose of this paper is to help to resolve this debate by presenting sound structural estimates of the relationship between measures of problem drinking and of employment and unemployment the analysis is based on the 1988 alcohol supplement of the national health interview survey we find that for both men and women problem drinking results in reduced employment and increased unemployment

economic upturns are good for your heart but watch out for accidents a study on swedish regional data 1976 2005 this article explores the relationship between the regional unemployment rate in total and cause specific mortality in sweden during 1976 2005 overall mortality is unrelated to changes in the unemployment rate while the biggest cause of death heart disease decreases when the unemployment rate decreases at the same time other accidents including job related accidents increases when the unemployment rate decreases swedish evidence provide no support for the us research findings that short term decreases in the unemployment rate are bad for your health in general

unemployment and infant health times series evidence from the state of tennessee this is the first study that decomposes unemployment into its structural and cyclical components and investigates their impact on income distribution controlling for the influence of inflation increases in structural unemployment have a substantial

home ownership job duration and wages we investigate the impact of home ownership on individual job mobility and wages in denmark we find that home ownership has a negative impact on job to job mobility both in terms of transition into new local jobs and new jobs outside the local labor market in addition there is a clear negative effect of home ownership on the unemployment risk and a positive impact on wages these results are robust to different strategies for correcting for the possible endogeneity of the home owner variable

the impact of stock market fluctuations on the mental and physical well being of children the stock market crash of 2008 caused a severe impact to households earlier research has explored the impacts of a stock market crash on life well being psychological stress and adult health behaviors we extend this literature by documenting impacts of stock market fluctuations on a range of child outcomes including effects on both mental and physical health we show a negative effect of a market crash on hospitalizations child reported health status sick days from school and an aggregate health index measure both graphical and regression based analysis reveal that our results are not driven by a preexisting trend of declining child health before the market crash and extensive sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the results are robust to multiple empirical specifications jel i15 e32 j13

constitutional change and inequality in scotland what scope does a sub national economy have to affect the level of inequality does a policy menu consistent with the theories of fiscal federalism provide for an ability to affect inequality measures or does this ability require the powers of a nation state in this paper we discuss these questions in the context of the debate around the scottish independence referendum in which inequality has played a prominent role and ask whether independence further devolution or simply different policies under the current constitutional framework are capable of helping scotland make the transition to a less unequal income distribution we provide a series of estimates of the impact of different policy choices upon inequality in scotland and discuss inequality reduction in the context of different constitutional options

the demand for alcohol the differential response to price although several studies indicate that drinking is responsive to price little work has focused on whether prices have a differential effect on light moderate or heavy drinking this study examines the price responsiveness of the demand for alcohol whether heavy drinkers are less sensitive to price than light or moderate drinkers the study uses data on alcohol consumption on the 1983 national health interview survey the results indicate that both light and heavy drinkers are much less price elastic than moderate drinkers further we cannot reject the hypothesis that the very heaviest drinkers have perfectly price inelastic demands

alcohol advertising bans consumption and control policies in seventeen oecd countries 1975 2000 this article uses cross country panel data to study the effects of advertising bans and other control policies on alcohol demand the null hypothesis is that advertising bans do not decrease alcohol consumption the study addresses several shortcomings in four previous cross country studies first an explanatory variable is included for other alcohol control policies second the study examines the history of advertising bans in oecd countries third the study also examines differences in cross country trends that characterize developed countries including aging of the population increased tourism higher unemployment rates and increased consumption of wine the mediterranean wine drinking countries are shown to be categorically distinct from the beer drinking countries and nordic spirits drinking countries fourth the study examines the panel data for unit roots and employs model specifications that correct for nonstationary data the empirical results indicate a significantly negative effect for th

unemployment and mortality in post war scotland abstract one of the more controversial topics in the literature examining the influence of unemployment on health is the hypothesised relation between unemployment and mortality this paper presents a time series analysis of unemployment and mortality in post war scotland using a variety of model specifications and several measures of the age and duration structure of male unemployment we find little evidence of a consistent association between unemployment and male mortality from all causes in different age cohorts unemployment however appeared to be more closely associated with variations in mortality rates from ischaemic heart disease but the direction of effect was sensitive to the choice of maximum lag length between unemployment and mortality there was also little evidence that per capita real incomes or health expenditure exerted a significant influence on mortality our general findings and the methodological limitations of macro studies of the relationship between unemployment and mortality highlight the importance of investigating the health consequences of unemployment using well controlled longitudinal studies of individuals

support for free trade self interest sociotropic politics and out group anxiety although it is widely acknowledged that an understanding of mass attitudes about trade is crucial to the political economy of foreign commerce only a handful of studies have addressed this topic these studies have focused largely on testing two models both of which emphasize that trade preferences are shaped by how trade affects an individual s income the factor endowments or heckscher ohlin model posits that these preferences are affected primarily by a person s skills the specific factors or ricardo viner model posits that trade preferences depend on the industry in which a person works we find little support for either of these models using two representative national surveys of americans the only potential exception involves the effects of education initial tests indicate that educational attainment and support for open trade are directly related which is often interpreted as support for the heckscher ohlin model however further analysis reveals that education s effects are less representative of skill than of individuals anxieties about involvement with out groups in their own country and beyond furthermore we find strong evidence that trade attitudes are guided less by material self interest than by perceptions of how the u s economy as a whole is affected by trade

financial crisis health outcomes and aging mexico in the 1980s and 1990s abstract we study the impact of economic crisis on health in mexico there have been four wide scale economic crises in mexico in the past two decades the most recent in 1995 96 we find that mortality rates for the very young and the elderly increase or decline less rapidly in crisis years as compared with non crisis years in the 1995 96 crisis mortality rates were about 5 to 7 percent higher in the crisis years compared to the years just prior to the crisis this translates into a 0 4 percent increase in mortality for the elderly and a 0 06 percent increase in mortality for the very young we find tentative evidence that economic crises affect mortality by reducing incomes and possibly by placing a greater burden on the medical sector but not by forcing less healthy members of the population to work or by forcing primary caregivers to go to work

are workers permanently scarred by job displacements this paper investigates whether workers suffer lasting scars following job displacements using david t ellwood s 1982 terminology scars represent persistent effects whereas blemishes are transitory adjustments which dissipate over time more precisely dislocated individuals are defined as scarred if they continue to earn less or to be unemployed more than their nondisplaced counterparts even after the conclusion of a several year adjustment period