the effect of food stamps on labor supply a bivariate selection model abstract although there is a large literature on the effects of u s transfer programs on labor supply this is the first such study of the food stamp program we model the nonlinearity and nonconvexity of the budget constraint and use maximum likelihood methods to estimate hours of work functions for female heads of household the largest recipient group in the program we also model the joint response to afdc and food stamps and we account for the existence of a significant number of eligible households who do not participate in the programs a three equation bivariate selection model is estimated on a sample of eligible households with maximum likelihood

theory based measurement of the saving investment correlation with an application to norway i introduction the findings of feldstein and horioka 19c 0 have led to numerous theoretical and empirical papers on the close correlation between domestic saving and domestic investment and its supposed implications for international capital mobility feldstein and horioka 1980 317 state that with perfect world capital mobility there should be no relation between domestic saving and domestic investment saving in each country responds to the worldwide opportunities for investment while investment in that country is financed by the worldwide pool of capital however in a cross country regression using period averaged saving and investment figures for sixteen oecd countries they obtain a significant coefficient close to unity and conclude that capital is rather immobile this result constitutes the feldstein horicka puzzle as it contradicts the widely held perception that capital is highly mobile across countries subsequent empirical work confirmed the close correlation though its implication for the degree of capital mobility is a moot point see tesar 1991 this paper contributes to the understanding of the puzzle on both theoretical and empirical counts first we present a theory based econometric specification for estimating saving investment correlations second we discuss the possible usefulness of the estimates for detecting capital mobility third we provide empirical results for the interesting case of norway we argue that feldstein and horioka s basic idea that the saving investment correlation contains information about international capital mobility is correct but that the interpretation of the estimated correlation value must be altered substantially in view of the results derived from modern macroeconomic models our research is motivated by the observation that various regression equations have been used to measure the saving investment correlation but that none of them has a firm theoretical foundation this in turn raises questions about the interpretation and comparability of the existing empirical results we propose an econometric specification that is founded in intertemporal general equilibrium models in which agents optimize under intertemporal budget constraints we show that time series studies have estimated misspecified equations and that cross section studies are seriously flawed because they neglect dynamics as a result the puzzle may turn out to be an artifact caused by measurement errors however the significance of reliable measurement of saving investment correlations goes beyond solving the feldstein horioka puzzle because they represent stylized facts open economy models should explain norway serves as a suitable example to cement our methodological arguments with empirical evidence thanks to its system of capital controls which were phased out during the 1970s and 1980s the oil discoveries and its small size we demonstrate that the failure to take structural breaks into account seriously distorts the picture making a strong case for careful diagnostic testing our main empirical result is that the feldstein horioka puzzle does not exist for norway the paper proceeds as follows in section ii we briefly summarize the state of the discussion regarding feldstein and horioka s findings in section iii we derive our specification from the theory compare it to the previous specifications and discuss how to make inferences about capital mobility in section iv we sketch major developments in the post war norwegian economy notably the abolition of capital controls and the emergence of the important oil sector section v presents the empirical results section vi summarizes and concludes ii the feldstein horioka puzzle many authors have confirmed feldstein and horioka s result of a high and stable correlation of saving and investment for oecd countries both in cross country studies and in time series studies

how is the debt managed learning from fiscal stabilizations this paper provides evidence on the behavior of public debt managers during fiscal stabilizations such episodes provide valuable information on the way debt instruments are chosen because they allow to overcome the problem that policymakers expectations of interest rates are generally not observable we find that governments increase the share of fixed rate long term debt denominated in the domestic currency the higher is the conditional volatility of short term interest rates the lower are long term interest rates and the stronger is the fall in long term rates that follows the announcement of the stabilization program by contrast conventional measures of the relative cost of issuing long term debt such as the long short interest rate spread are not significant this evidence suggests that debt managers tend to prefer long to short maturity debt because they are concerned about the risk of refinancing at higher than expected interest rates however when long term rates are high relative to their expectations they issue short maturity debt to minimize borrowing costs

income volatility and household consumption the impact of food assistance programs the impact offood assistance programs food stamps in a period of rising income inequality in the united states is analyzed using 1978 92 psid data we assess to what extent food assistance can be viewed as an effective insurance to permanent shocks to income the results show that the program has a substantial consumption smoothing effect in the lowincome population the response of food consumption to a permanent income shock is a third lower after accounting for the monetary value of food stamps

food stamp caseloads over the business cycle 1 introduction the onset of the current economic downturn following the longest expansion in u s history has renewed interest in the role of automatic stabilizers designed to insure households against negative cyclical income shocks this system of income and consumption stabilizers includes among others the individual income tax and the panoply of social insurance programs such as unemployment insurance and the food stamp program while the income tax and unemployment insurance have received recent attention gruber 1997 auerbach and feenberg 2000 kniesner and ziliak 2002a b little is known about the role of food stamps as an automatic stabilizer even though the program served over 27 million americans at its peak in 1994 this gap in the literature is particularly acute in light of passage of the personal responsibility and work opportunity reconciliation act of 1996 welfare reform act which introduced new rules on cash assistance recipients and thus the nearly half of food stamp recipients who also receive cash welfare moreover the 1996 welfare reform also had a direct administrative effect on the food stamp program by ending the eligibility of some recipients reducing average benefit levels and requiring states to replace paper coupons with electronic benefit transfer cards importantly the welfare reform act also eliminated the entitlement status of the main cash welfare program aid to families with dependent children afdc thus positioning food stamps as a more prominent countercyclical consumption stabilizer a first task in assessing the possible stabilization role of food stamps in the era of welfare reform is to identify the cyclical sensitivity of food stamp caseloads if food stamp caseloads are acyclical then we would expect no role for food stamps in smoothing consumption over the business cycle if however food stamp caseloads are highly cyclical then food stamps may function as an important antirecessionary tool by the same token the new welfare policies may independently affect food stamp caseload movements and interact with the business cycle thereby altering the possible stabilization role of the program in this paper we specify a dynamic model of food stamp caseloads to estimate the responsiveness of the caseload to the business cycle to welfare policies and to interactions between the business cycle and welfare policies unlike cash welfare there has been scant research on the cyclicality of food stamp caseloads 1 wallace and blank 1999 are a recent exception in their use of both static annual and dynamic monthly food stamp caseload models based on state level panel data for the 1980 to 1998 federal fiscal years with annual data food stamp caseloads were strongly countercyclical and reform of afdc led to weak declines in total caseloads 2 specifically they attribute up to 44 of the 1994 to 1998 food stamp caseload decline to economic conditions and about 6 of the decline to welfare reform they reach broadly similar conclusions with monthly data however wallace and blank calculate that upward of 85 of the post 1996 decline in food stamp caseloads can be attributed to welfare reform if one is willing to ascribe all the unexplained residual to welfare reform which as the authors note is undoubtedly an overestimate of welfare reform s effect on food stamp caseloads p 85 in their static models figlio gundersen and ziliak 2000 reached conclusions similar to wallace and blank s estimates with annual level data in their preferred dynamic models they attribute about 35 of the 1994 to 1998 caseload decline to the macroeconomy and virtually nothing to welfare reform we improve on this previous research on food stamp caseloads along several dimensions first we not only follow other research in estimating the impact of afdc policy changes on food stamp caseloads but also examine the impact of policies that are focused directly on food stamps

international capital mobility in oecd countries the feldstein horioka puzzle revisited abstract we utilise the most recent time series techniques of dynamic ols and examine international capital mobility across 23 oecd countries we adopt the saving investment approach where the endogeneity problem is confronted our findings show that capital has been remarkably mobile in most countries over the last three decades

the feldstein horioka puzzle and spurious ratio correlation abstract this study shows that the feldstein horioka puzzle resembles a spurious ratio correlation due to a common deflator pearson 1896 7 empirically the feldstein horioka specification and its counterpart with an arbitrary deflator final domestic demand give similar results monte carlo results also indicates that the slope and r 2 of the ratio regression are upward biased theoretically assuming each of the original undeflated variables are linear homogeneous functions of the deflator and random disturbances formulas for and r 2 are derived as saving and investment rates are numerically small relative to the disturbances both and r 2 are predominantly determined by the disturbances and they tend towards unity when the disturbances are close in magnitude the feldstein horioka results are therefore noisy though not entirely spurious and do not necessarily reflect a strong correlation between investment and savings

does the choice of consumption measure matter an application to the permanent income hypothesis abstract food consumption in the panel study of income dynamics is used as a proxy for total consumption in many applications in economics including tests of the permanent income hypothesis tests of separability between consumption and leisure and tests of intergenerational altruism food however explains only a small fraction of the variation in total consumption i propose a measure of composite consumption based on predicted wealth and compare it both to food consumption and to skinner s 1987 measure of predicted consumption in a test of the permanent income hypothesis using a log linear intertemporal consumption function i find that food does not reject the permanent income hypothesis but both skinner s predicted consumption and the composite measure proposed here to reject the hypothesis

the saving retention coefficient in the long run and in the short run evidence from panel data abstract the high correlation between domestic investment and saving found by feldstein and horioka in 1980 is by now considered a stylized fact pooling annual data for 21 oecd countries krol challenged this consensus in 1996 and found a much lower correlation than is usually admitted in the literature in this paper we show that krol does not overturn feldstein and horioka even if the degree of capital mobility is higher in the short run than in the long run we solve this apparent contradiction by excluding luxembourg from the panel and estimating an error correction form of krol s fixed effects model

the feldstein horioka puzzle revisited abstract krol 1996 argues that the feldstein horioka puzzle is the result of the estimation technique that using fixed effect panel regression low saving retention coefficients are found however krol s study has been criticized as revolving around the inclusion of luxembourg this paper reexamines the luxembourg problem by applying kao and chiang s 2001 dols and fmols estimators to non stationary panel data of 20 oecd countries our empirical evidences show that the inclusion or exclusion of luxembourg does not affect the estimation results instead the power of the estimation technique and of the hypothesis test matters this result is interpreted as the higher power of cointegration analysis in panel data

explaining saving investment correlations national saving and investment rates are highly positively correlated in virtually all countries this is puzzling as it apparently implies a low degree of international capital mobility this paper shows that the observed positive correlation between national saving and investment rates arises naturally within a quantitatively restricted equilibrium model with perfect mobility of financial and physical capital the model is consistent with the fact that saving investment correlations are larger for larger countries but are still substantial for small countries further the model is consistent with the finding that current account deficits tend to be associated with investment booms copyright 1993 by american economic association

risk sharing between and within families this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to test whether risk sharing is complete between or within american families the tests accommodate a wide variety in the configuration and availability of family data the test results reject inter as well as intra family full risk sharing even assuming that leisure is endogenous or that leisure and consumption are nonseparable

de facto financial openness and capital mobility abstract this paper shows that de facto financial openness does does not increase capital mobility in developing developed countries and that capital is is not freely mobile in the most financially open developing developed countries

domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run the evidence and analysis in this paper support the earlier findings of feldstein and horioka 1980 that sustained increases in domestic savings rates induce approximately equal increases in domestic rates of investment new estimates for the post opec period 1974 79 imply that each extra dollar of domestic saving increases domestic investment by approximately 85 cents in a sample of 17 oecd countries an explicit analysis of the problems of identification and simultaneous equations bias suggests that the regression estimates are more relevant as a guide to the long run response of international capital flows than to their short run behavior coefficient estimates based on annual variations in savings and investment are subject to potentially severe simultaneous equations bias that is not present when annual observations are averaged over a decade or more and the regression is estimated with a cross country sample of these averages a portfolio model of international capital allocation that is presented in the paper indicates that the short run change in the rate of net foreign investment in response to a sustained increase in domestic saving is likely to be substantially greater than the ultimate steady state response this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

the food stamp participation and labor supply of married couples an empirical analysis of joint decisions this paper examines the effect of the food stamp program on intrafamily labor supply and program participation decisions married couples simultaneously choose the labor supply of the husband and wife and whether to participate in the food stamp program using data from the survey of income and program participation the author estimates a nested multinomial logit model simulations indicate smaller labor supply effects to changes in the food stamp benefit than the previous research which focused on single parents married couple program participation is found to be relatively responsive to changes in food stamp benefits

capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in oecd countries abstract this paper considers tests that use data on saving and investment rates to determine the degree of international capital mobility two types of evidence are presented to show that a high correlation between saving and investment rates across oecd countries can be consistent with a high degree of capital mobility this evidence qualifies the conclusions of previous studies and casts doubt on the usefulness of testing hypotheses about capital mobility with data on saving and investment rates

testing the validity of the feldstein horioka puzzle for australia this article presents the details of an investigation into the relationship between investment and savings in australia over the period 1960 to 2007 using five time series techniques our results reveal that the feldstein horioka puzzle exists in a weak form with a lower saving retention coefficient granger causality tests illustrate that savings granger causes investment both in the short and long runs our results suggest australia could effectively adopt policies that focus on increasing investment through increasing domestic savings

current account solvency and the feldstein horioka puzzle in this paper we suggest an alternative explanation of the high cross section association between shares of saving and investment in gdp which feldstein and horioka 1980 interpret as evidence of low capital mobility in oecd countries saving and investment shares appear to be i i we show that a solvency constraint implies that the current balance is stationary and thus that saving and investment cointegrate with a unit coefficient irrespective of the degree of capital mobility it is this long run relation that the fh cross section regression captures econometric results for 23 oecd countries over the 1960 92 period are consistent with this explanation

the significance of federal taxes as automatic stabilizers using the taxsim model for the period 1962 95 we consider the federal tax system s impact as an automatic stabilizer despite the many changes in the tax system there has been relatively little change in its role as an automatic stabilizer we estimate that individual federal taxes offset perhaps as much as 8 percent of initial shocks to gdp we also suggest that the progressive income tax may help to stabilize output via its effect on the supply of labor an additional effect that may even be of similar magnitude to the more traditional path of stabilization through aggregate demand

explaining armington what determines substitutability between home and foreign goods for decades trade economists have modeled imperfect substitution between home and foreign goods in consumption often called the armington assumption with little analysis of what explains the wide variation in these substitution elasticities across sectors using a varying coefficients model the authors estimate armington elasticities between u s domestic and foreign goods across over one hundred industrial sectors from 1980 to 1988 and examine the role of product industry political and home bias factors as determinants they find strong support that the presence of foreign owned affiliates affects armington elasticities in important ways and some support that entry barriers and union presence have an effect

international capital mobility evidence from panel data abstract to test whether capital is internationally mobile some researchers have examined the relationship between saving and investment using time averaged data they find saving and investment to be related and conclude that capital is relatively immobile in this paper i argue that a country s intertemporal budget constraint biases results using time averaged data against finding capital mobility using annual data pooled for 21 oecd countries over the 1962 1990 period i find the estimated impact of saving on investment to be considerably smaller than previous estimates

the current account in developing countries a perspective from the consumption smoothing approach according to the consumption smoothing view a high degree of capital mobility implies that agents are able to fully smooth their consumption in the face of shocks this article develops aframework to test whether indeed the current account in developing countries acts as a buffer to smooth consumption in the face of shocks to national cash flow which is defined as output less investment less government expenditure using vector autoregression analysis we estimate the optimal consumption smoothing current account with data from a sample of forty five developing countries we find that for a majority of the countries the hypothesis offull consumption smoothing cannot be rejected suggesting that capital mobility may after all be quite high in this group of countries

savings investment and international capital flows abstract the high correlation between national savings and domestic investment rateshas been interpreted as evidence that capital is not internationally mobile this paper surveys the theory and evidence on the relationship between savings and investment in a sample of 23 oecd countries a positive correlation between savings and investment rates is found in both the short and long runs however a wide variety of models generate such co movements in savings and investment in response to exogenous disturbances even under conditions of complete financial markets thus the savings investment correlation provides little evidence on the question of international capital mobility

the role of food stamps in consumption stabilization although the food stamp program is the largest universal entitlement program in the social safety net little is known about its stabilizing role in household income and consumption using data from the panel study of income dynamics spanning 1980 99 we estimate the volatility of income with and without food stamps coupled with a variance decomposition of consumption among families at high ex ante risk of food stamp participation food stamps reduced income volatility by about 12 percent and food consumption volatility by about 14 percent there was however a marked decline in consumption smoothing benefits of the program in the early 1990s relative to the 1980s

feldstein horioka meets a time trend abstract much of the literature relating to the feldstein horioka puzzle misses two major points it is obvious there should be a home bias and that this bias should be falling through time our empirical analysis is consistent with these points

globalization and the feldstein horioka puzzle capital account liberalization and the integration of world financial markets should increase capital mobility across countries this article uses the feldstein horioka savings investment methodology to examine the impact of economic globalization on the degree of capital mobility in 99 countries over the period 1970 to 2005 our findings suggest that economic openness and financial market integration have led to increased capital mobility in developed as well as developing countries however their effect appears to be larger for the latter this also implies that countries with more financial openness can run higher current account deficits due to better access to external capital markets our results also support the previous findings that foreign aid supplements domestic savings for investment in developing countries