controls on capital inflows and the transmission of external shocks in this paper we attempt to analyse whether price based controls on capital inflows are successful in insulating economies against external shocks we present results from vector autoregressive var models which indicate that chile and colombia countries that adopted controls on capital inflows seem to have been relatively well insulated against certain types of external disturbances subsequently we use the autoregressive distributive lag ardl approach to co integration in order to isolate the effects of the capital controls on the pass through of external disturbances to domestic interest rates in those economies we conclude that there is evidence that the capital controls have allowed for greater policy autonomy

the hazard of moral hazard untangling the asian crisis abstract the paper critically examines the explanations of the asian crisis which emphasize the role of national policies and institutions that allegedly created moral hazard by overprotecting the investors industrial policy crony capitalism and government guarantees accorded to banks and industrial firms that are considered too important to fail we also discuss the international dimension of the moral hazard argument in the presence of international monetary fund imf bail out the paper finds these explanations theoretically ill defined and empirically weak and argues that the prescriptions for changes in policy and institutions based on them are unlikely to prevent similar kinds of crises in the future

from technological catch up to innovation based economic growth south korea and taiwan compared abstract this paper sets out to analyse the divergent models pursued by south korea and taiwan in regard to technological catching up and their ongoing transition towards innovation based economies it is found that south korea s former high debt and chaebol dominated model inclined it to pursue a schumpeterian scale based technological development while taiwan s former pro stability small and medium sized enterprise sme based model tended to favour its emphasis on a neo marshallian network based technological development it will be argued that the state s approach to economic liberalisation and firms demand for capital for technological upgrading are the major factors that have underpinned the adjustment efforts of these two countries

the influence of uncertainty on uk manufacturing investment this paper reports the results of including proxies for growth and inflation uncertainty in an accelerator style investment equation set up in error correction form for u k manufacturing plant and machinery expenditure the uncertainty proxies are constructed as cross section dispersion indices of independent economic forecasts the results confirm the importance of output growth uncertainty as a negative determinant of capital formation inflation uncertainty was found to have a short run influence only copyright 1991 by royal economic society

developing effective policies for the sustainable development of ecological agriculture in china the case study of jinshan county with a systems dynamics model abstract this paper focuses on a search for concrete policy measures to facilitate the overall sustainability of ecological agricultural development at a county level for this purpose a system dynamics model aiseem has been developed to explore the potential long term ecological economic institutional and social interactions of ecological agricultural development through a case study of jinshan county in china the model provides an experimental platform for the simulation and analysis of alternative policy scenarios the results indicate that the diversification of land use patterns government low interest loans and government support for training are important policy measures for promoting the sustainable development of ecological agriculture at least in the case study context in addition the study reveals that environmentally sound technology e g biogas project alone cannot sufficiently induce farmers to adopt ecological agricultural practices limited availability of information risk aversion and high transaction costs are major barriers to the adoption of alternative agricultural practices in this regard the importance of capacity building and institutional arrangements are emphasised through the development of an improved policy making process on agricultural sustainability this case study highlights the importance of combining the ecological economics analytical framework with the system dynamics modelling approach as a feasible integrated tool to provide insight into the policy analysis of ecological agriculture and thus set a solid basis for effective policy making to facilitate its sustainable development on a regional scale

explaining korea s lower investment levels after the crisis summary this paper examines the reasons for korea s lower investment levels after the crisis of 1997 98 through estimation of an error correction model of real investment the econometric results suggest that the fall in investment rates resulted from a decline in the long run equilibrium value of investment rates due to a deterioration in terms of trade they also show that recent investment levels are neither too high nor too low relative to the long run equilibrium value the variation in terms of trade seems to have pronounced effects on investment through its effect on corporate profits and cash flows in korea

bureaucracy and growth a cross national analysis of the effects of weberian state structures on economic growth the role of bureaucratic authority structures in facilitating economic growth has been a sociological concern since max weber s classic contributions almost 100 years ago using a recent and original data set we examine the characteristics of core state economic agencies and the growth records of a sample of 35 developing countries for the 1970 1990 period our weberianness scale offers a simple measure of the degree to which these agencies employ meritocratic recruitment and offer predictable rewarding long term careers we find that these weberian characteristics significantly enhance prospects for economic growth even when we control for initial levels of gdp per capita and human capital our results imply that weberianness should be included as a factor in general models of economic growth they also suggest the need for more attention by policymakers to building better bureaucracies and more research by social scientists on variations in how state bureaucracies are organized

a minsky crisis a model is developed to illustrate hyman minsky s financial crisis theories a key assumption is that the level of wealth in the economy is determined mac roeconomically with the value of firms assets responding to the state of confidence as reflected by discounted quasi rents on capital the second assumption is that there is high substitutability between liabilities of firms and money in the public s portfolio a downward shift in anticipated profits leads wealth to contract and the public to shift portfolio preferences toward money interest rates rise leading to further dampening of expected profits and a debt deflation crisis can occur

the political economy of the ecuadorian financial crisis this paper takes the unusual step of exploring economic hypotheses through interviews with key economic agents it focuses on the causes of ecuador s 1999 banking collapse within an eclectic framework with minskian elements broad support is found for endogenous explanations of financial crises and little backing for explanations such as accidents or policy mistakes interviewees argued that after the stabilisation programme of 1992 agents became euphoric and accumulated debt to finance imprudent levels of expansion that incentives for moral hazard led to financial corruption and excessive risk taking and that weak regulation after

interpreting the korean crisis financial liberalisation industrial policy and corporate governance as the interpretation of its economic miracle has been so the interpretation of the recent crisis in korea remains highly controversial 1 although there are many important issues which have been raised by the korean crisis such as exchange rate policy labour market policy and the architecture of the international financial system chang 1998a three issues have been especially controversial in the debate financial liberalization industrial policy and corporate governance

a developing country view of the current global crisis what should not be forgotten and what should be done macroeconomic theory will surely be affected by the current global crisis there are signs that some old theories and insights will have a comeback this paper argues that among them economists should not forget the lessons that have been learnt from three decades of several financial crises in developing countries we emphasise two important lessons first preventing crises in developing countries requires not only the regulation of domestic financial systems but also a consistent set of macroeconomic policies in particular we stress the need for consistency between the exchange rate rule the capital account regime and the domestic financial market regulations second financial crises in developing countries tend to worsen both the balance of payments and the fiscal balance traditional adjustment policies tend to exacerbate the recessive trends in output and employment this is just the opposite of what is required and what governments in developed countries are able to do developing countries should push for an agenda that helps them deal with these problems

assessing the impact of financial liberalisation on stock market volatility in selected developing countries this article argues for the importance of measuring stock market volatility following financial liberalisation in developing countries three alternative indices for measuring volatility are developed these are used to examine the view that financial liberalisation induces increased asset price volatility based on the limited data available this view is corroborated in the majority of countries investigated

financial globalisation and crisis institutional transformation and equity this paper comprises the long introduction to the symposium of five papers on financial globalisation published in the cambridge journal of economics volume 34 no 2 the paper discusses the impact of financial globalisation in a variety of spheres and shows how the five papers link together to provide a coherent view of the current economic and financial crisis in this paper we also examine the globalisation of finance more broadly both in historical terms as well as in relation to the current widespread failure in the financial markets we take up the policy question of how the interests of the poor in particular and developing countries in general could be safeguarded from the vagaries of financial globalisation questioning how much choice communities and countries have and what can the international community do to extend these choices

sustainable homeservices toward household services that enhance ecological social and economic sustainability abstract the idea of services replacing products is increasingly offered as a solution to making the production and consumption patterns of the affluent consumers more sustainable however the discussion about sustainable services or sustainable product service systems tends to emphasize the eco efficiency perspective rather than explicitly capture all sustainability aspects social or socioeconomic considerations are often forgotten or by passed without scrutiny this paper argues that there is the need for a concept of sustainable services in which the social sustainability aspect is also recognized with equal attention since a major part of private consumption occurs in the household context living at home and moving to and from it this paper will put forth the concept of sustainable homeservices and will suggest a way to assess sustainability of services directed to households for assessing the sustainability of services directed to households a set of indicators relating to the ecological social and economic dimensions of sustainability is proposed with the aim of giving an idea of how to assess homeservices in practical terms the paper will also exemplify how one could operationalize these indicators on an ordinal rating scale the conclusion is that it is possible to assess the sustainability of a homeservice in a relative fashion using no service or the product alternative as the point of comparison households alone have a limited capacity to influence their consumption choices because other actors set the frame for this reason institutional arrangements for making services easily available to households are outlined it appears that housing organizations have a central role in the alternative option for organizing the supply of service provision they are involved in five of the seven alternative ways of supplying services that could be identified the role of the housing organization can vary from direct supply to lighter forms such as cooperative arrangements with external service providers or resident involvement

vulnerability to a currency crisis lessons from the asian experience are currency crises caused by manias and panics in financial markets or by unsustainable deteriorations in domestic macroeconomic conditions this question is explored in the context of the recent asian currency crisis the theoretical concept of vulnerability is used to identify three early warning indicators of susceptibility to a currency crisis rapid accumulation of mobile capital domestic lending booms and overvalued exchange rates it is shown that the crisis and noncrisis countries of asia may be distinguished empirically using these indicators over the decade preceding the crisis this exercise provides convincing evidence that the crisis emanated largely from domestic macroeconomic conditions

capital market crises liberalisation fixed exchange rates and market driven destabilisation everyone knows the epigraph to anna karenina happy families are all alike every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way tolstoy may well have been right about families but the extension of his judgement to economies hit by capital market crises distinctly fails their causes and unhappy consequences in latin america and asia over the past 20 years have many elements in common

a theory of conscious parallelism abstract in this paper the rationality of conscious parallelism is studied within the context of a dynamic oligopoly model the doctrine of conscious parallelism is modelled as the outcome of a signalling game in which the rules of response are specified axiomatically this will result in a unique solution to the oligopoly problem that is based on firms need to have consistent expectations that subsequently generate collusive behaviour this model can then be used to more precisely define the conditions that facilitate or limit oligopolistic coordination as found in the traditional industrial organization literature

debt restructuring and the politics of exclusion a case study of the daewoo motor bupyeong plants in incheon south korea this paper examines the politics of inclusion and exclusion in the debt restructuring of the south korean motor vehicle industry and shows how the contested process of exclusion operates through the politics of forgetting it focuses on the power relations among multiple actors involved in the debt restructuring of a bankrupt auto company daewoo motor company in order to understand the politics of exclusion and forgetting as a series of complex multiscalar processes in order to analyse power relations among multiple actors at different geographical scales this study examines these actors conflicting economic and political interests ideologies positions strategies resources and effectiveness of their power the study shows that the politics of inclusion and exclusion derives not only as a result of global external forces but also from conscious policy choices made by multiple actors at different geographical scales this paper offers an alternative angle to the binary view of the relationship amon

real vs financial investment can tobin taxes eliminate the irreversibility distortion abstract in the recent past several developing countries have failed to achieve significant real capital investment despite episodes of large capital inflows although there are real projects with seemingly high returns investors prefer to wait for the correct time to invest in this paper we address this issue by considering a two sector economy where investment in real capital is irreversible and debt financed furthermore the interest rate which is determined in the financial sector is random as a result of volatile expectations in this economy the expected return on real capital is above the expected interest rate this is because the option to wait for lower interest rates has a positive value in the presence of rumors taxes on international financial transactions tobin taxes reduce the variance of the domestic interest rate while leaving its mean unchanged as a result they induce more investment in irreversible real capital the model borrows from the irreversible investment literature a difference with other models is that the source of noise is a mean reverting process not just a geometric brownian motion we solve for the optimal decision rule using the girsanov theorem of the maxims of orthodox finance none surely is more anti social than the fetish of liquidity it forgets that there is no such thing as liquidity of investment for the society as a whole the introduction of a substantial government transfer tax on all transactions might prove the most serviceable reform available with a view to mitigating the predominance of speculation over enterprise keynes the general theory

volatility of the capital flows and structural breaks in latin american and the caribbean espanolen este trabajo se estudia la presencia de quiebres estructurales en los flujos de capitales de 16 economias de latinoamerica usando el test de raiz unitaria de zivot y andrews 1992 para complementar el analisis se utiliza el test de quiebres estructurales de bai perron 1998 luego se procede a analizar la posibilidad de contemporaneidad entre los quiebres encontrados y las crisis que tales paises sufrieron en los ultimos 40 anos dichas crisis pueden ser de moneda bancarias domesticas o de deuda externa se encontraron muchos casos de contemporaneidad especialmente con las crisis que ocurrieron al final de los 90 englishthis paper studies the presence of structural breaks in the capital flows of sixteen economies of latin america using the unit root test by zivot and andrews 1992 it is complemented by the structural break test by bai perron 1998 afterwards an analysis of the likelihood of contemporaneity between the breaks found and the crises the countries had suffered in the last forty years is presented these crises were either of currency banking domestic and external debt type many cases of contemporaneity were found especially with the crises that occurred at the end of the 90s

introduction the global financial crisis there cannot now be a shadow of a doubt that the flaw in his ideology admitted by alan greenspan in response to a question by henry a waxman chairman of the us house of representatives committee on oversight and government reform whether he felt that your ideology pushed you to make decisions that you wish you had not made is both significant and permanent the current financial and economic crisis that has forced the likes of greenspan to question the coherence of dominant conceptual frameworks is unprecedented in global reach and systemic gravity some basic figures speak for themselves according to mckinsey s mapping global financial markets october 2008 global financial assets rose from us 12 trillion in 1980 to us 196 trillion in 2007 the international monetary fund s global financial stability report imf 2009a estimate for the latter figure is considerably higher at us 241 trillion global cross border capital flows more than doubled between 2002 and 2007 with foreign investors holding one in four debt securities and one in five equities while in 2000 only 11 countries had financial assets of more than 350 of gross domestic product gdp 25 countries had deepened their financial markets to the same extent by 2007 as early as 1990 money managers had increased their control of us corporate equities from 8 in 1950 to 60 porter 1992 p 6 whalen 2002 p 402 similarly pension funds had extended their share of total business equities from less than 1 to just short of 39 and their fraction of corporate debt from 13 to 50 ghilarducci 1992 p 117 whalen 2002 p 402 in the period from 1986 to 2006 the us financial sector as a whole increased its share of corporate profits from 10 to 30 while its outstanding debts grew from 20 of gdp in 1980 to 116 in 2007 fed 2009 according to gillian tett from the financial times outstanding credit defaults swaps cds today amount to no less than us 60 trillion with the risk embodied after discounting mutually off setting contracts still as high as us 14 trillion tett 2009 p 264 as we know the curtains have now come down on this dance of the trillions palma 2009 the immediate hang over in the form of a pile of toxic debt is surreal not only in its

on adjustment costs and the stability of equilibria in practice one does not expect conflicting agents to move instantaneously to an equilibrium instead the final equilibrium is often the consequence of disequilibrium dynamics this paper through the use of local game theory introduces a general framework for disequilibrium dynamics based on the existence of adjustment costs the analysis is presented within the context of oligopoly theory and shows that the existence of adjustment costs will in many cases result in a unique equilibrium at which market shares are inversely proportional to these costs this paper also introduces two new solution concepts for n person normal form games

financial liberalization private investment and portfolio choice financialization of real sectors in emerging markets abstract using firm level panel data we analyze the impacts of rates of return gap between financial and fixed investments under uncertainty on real investment performance in three emerging markets argentina mexico and turkey employing a portfolio choice model to explain the low fixed investment rates in developing countries during the 1990s we suggest that rather than investing in irreversible long term fixed investments firms may choose to invest in reversible short term financial investments depending on respective rates of returns and the overall uncertainty in the economy the empirical results show that increasing rates of return gap and uncertainty have an economically and statistically significant fixed investment reducing effect while the opposite is true with respect to financial investments

instability and volatility of capital flows to developing countries despite the recent recovery in capital flows towards developing countries some of their characteristics have generated serious problems as these flows are increasingly concentrated in a small group of emerging markets most developing countries have been facing a severe scarcity of external resources while for the minority endowed with some measure of access to international financial markets volatility and sustainability remain the key issues financial liberalisation has helped to create new channels for resource transfers from the developed world but it has also generated conditions wherein such transfers can easily be reversed with serious consequences in terms of instability the present study depicts discusses and analyses some of the issues related to capital movements between developed and developing countries section 2 is an overview of the recent controversies on external financial liberalisation section 2 is an surveys the post 1970 developments in capital inflows to developing countries their main components and their contribution to development finance section 4 examines the instability and volatility of total inflows and their components using two different statistical measures section 5 concentrates on a particular type of capital movement i e short term arbitrage seeking capital flows to emerging market economies this analysis requires specific conceptualisation definition and data generation from balance of payments statistics in section 6 a similar analysis of volatility and instability of short term inflows and outflows to emerging market economies is undertaken the penultimate section 7 discusses the policy implications of the foregoing analysis and is followed by a summary and conclusions

the political economy of industrial policy in korea the article aims to provide some additional empirical support and theoretical consolidation for the emerging alternative interpretation of the korean developmental experience which emphasizes the role of the state after briefly reviewing some mainstream interpretations it presents a detailed account of state intervention in korea where it is revealed that industrial policy played the central role then it explains how the korean state was able to avoid some of the obvious dangers of such a policy which is often associated with economic failures in developing countries it then explores the basis of state power in korea which provided a background for such an outcome copyright 1993 by oxford university press

a legitimate paradox neo liberal reform and the return of the state in korea this article examines the neo liberal reforms that the kim government implemented in post crisis korea it argues that by embracing the reforms the state paradoxically re legitimised itself in the national political economy the process of enacting the reforms completed the power shift from a collusive state chaebol alliance towards a new alliance based on a more populist social contract but one that nonetheless generally conformed to the tenets of neo liberalism kim and his closest associates identified the malpractices of the chaebols as the main cause of the crisis so reforming the chaebols would be the key to economic recovery combining populism and neo liberalism they drew on support from both domestic and international sources to rein in rather than nurture the chaebols

expectations the business cycle and the mexican peso crisis the 1994 95 peso crisis did not display characteristics which allow it to be easily captured by traditional crisis models models based on minsky s financial fragility hypothesis offer more persuasive accounts but have been supported by relatively little direct empirical evidence this paper provides such evidence with particular attention being paid to the role of domestic financial liberalisation in the process minsky s hypotheses about the evolution of expectations over the business cycle are tracked using business survey data in addition crisis indicators are constructed reflecting the changing vulnerability of the economy to shocks the findings support a minskyian interpretation of the crisis copyright 2006 oxford university press

good bye financial repression hello financial crash some unintended consequences of financial liberalization in latin america are analyzed in this paper intrinsic imperfectious in financial markets and the policy dilemmas they pose are reviewed first the stylized facts of southern cone experiments in financial liberization are then presented alternative ways of organlzing domestic capital markets under latin american conditions are discussed and an eclectic reform mongering program is proposed

multiproduct activity in an experimental differentiated oligopoly in a symmetric differentiated experimental oligopoly with multiproduct firms we test the predictive power of the corresponding bertrand nash equilibria subjects are not informed on the specification of the underlying demand model in the presence of intense multiproduct activity and provided that a parallel pricing rule is imposed to multiproduct firms strategies tend to confirm the non cooperative multiproduct solution

economics for sustainable rural systems abstract critics often reproach the discipline of economics for supporting developments that result in environmental and social degradation this article identifies where such censure is valid but proceeds to argue that the rationale underlying economic techniques is at fault rather than the techniques themselves within the rural context we suggest that economics can make a valuable contribution to the design and achievement of sustainable ways of living valid criticism of economics focuses on its assumptions about value since this has led to emphasis of favourable effects of markets and laissez faire policies exposing rural areas to more rigorously competitive market conditions encourage their transformation by increasing mechanisation industrialisation and a less sustainable use of resources new approaches and policies are required if different outcomes are to be achieved an initial step is to identify desirable outcomes a matter of social choice however society makes multiple demands on rural resources and such issues cannot be adequately captured within a neo classical welfare model an alternative hierarchical framework in the tradition of systems thinking capable of analysing the complex relations associated with rural resource use provides appropriate emphasis to the economic links between goals at different levels within the system and appears to have some heuristic value an empirical counterpart of the hierarchical framework input output analysis generates information to support social choices and can also contribute to the understanding of economic systems and their interaction with the wider social cultural ethical and environmental universe the article concludes with some revised economic policy prescriptions to promote rural sustainability

financial crisis in southeast asia dispelling illusion the minskyan way this paper extends minsky s financial instability hypothesis to the case of the open liberalised economy making it possible to put forward a specifically minskyan account of the road to the financial crisis in southeast asia 1997 1998 the analysis suggests that the threats to growth and employment emanating from the financial sector which minsky identified in the closed economy setting are much intensified in open liberalised developing economies financial liberalisation is an important key factor in this process rival explanations of the crisis are examined and rejected in favour of the extended minskyan explanation the policy implications are derived and discussed copyright 2002 oxford university press

sub saharan africa s growth south south trade and the generalised balance of payments constraint using the post keynesian balance of payments constrained growth approach we investigate the recent increase in sub saharan africa ssa growth focussing on the contribution of south south trade the model is estimated by panel co integration on a sample of 20 low and lower middle income ssa countries using annual data from 1990 to 2008 and considering three partner areas ssa itself developing asia and the rest of the world the results show that in the past decade the balance of payments constraint of ssa has been relaxed this shift has occurred through different channels of transmission the other ssa countries contributed through the real growth effect developing asia through the market share effect and the rest of the world through the terms of trade effect these results help reconcile puzzling evidence on the pattern of ssa external indebtedness and provide new insights on the role of asian drivers on ssa growth as well as on the sustainability of ssa growth recovery

recasting alternative agriculture as a management model the value of adept scaling abstract this paper identifies the significance of scale considerations as applied to agricultural resource management scaling is the act of defining the spatiotemporal level or levels of interest when attempting problem solving a goal commonly proposed by the diverse interests working toward an alternative agriculture is sustainability to date advocates of sustainability have failed to scale meaningfully both their critique of conventional agriculture and the alternatives they represent because sustainability is inherently sensitive to changes in analytic context i e is scale relative in the absence of explicit scaling sustainability is unworkable as a measure of system performance the importance of scale as applied to the concept of sustainability in hierarchical systems has been noted lowrance et al 1986 am j altern agric 1 169 173 however the implications of this finding have not been confronted in the subsequent literature going beyond lowrance et al 1986 this paper describes the error that accompanies improperly scaled assessment of agricultural sustainability and identifies two important considerations that emerge through explicit scaling 1 the necessity of consistent and timely integration of local information into upper level decision making and 2 the necessity of recognizing the scalar level of the downside of resource allocation trade offs and addressing them accordingly the first of these considerations suggests the need for agricultural systems that are resilient to collapse from unpredictable and potentially fundamental disturbance through incorporation of local information it is possible to maintain coherent strategies aimed at upper level objectives e g biodiversity conservation while supporting the integrity of lower level sub systems e g community economic vitality the second consideration that arises from explicit scaling indicates the value of developing systems which are buffered against political paralysis caused by negative impacts of resource allocation decisions victims or losers result from allocation and reallocation functions these individuals and or institutions must be addressed recent enthusiasm regarding win win scenarios in many cases is buoyed by scaling error explicit recognition of the implications of necessary trade offs both positive and negative promotes the development of mechanisms to support losers failure to confront the fact that losers are consistently produced exaggerates the negative impact they have on system performance we define holistic management as identifying assimilating and acting on information in a manner consonant with the contextual spatiotemporal scale of the problem at hand the fundamental challenge facing agriculture is integration of multiple considerations across levels in the system explicitly scaled analysis and action in a holistic setting is proposed as a means by which alternative agriculture can respond to this challenge

unemployment and the real exchange rate in latin america summary today unemployment rates in several latin american countries are similar or even higher than the highest unemployment rates among oecd economies open unemployment has become for the first time in the region s history a major dimension of the employment problem this paper examines the role of the real exchange rate rer in the recent unemployment performance of latin america it presents a model of the determinants of unemployment the channels through which the rer influences unemployment performance as well as the stylized facts and empirical results about this relationship giving special attention to the cases of argentina brazil chile and mexico 2006 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

diverging trends in aggregate and firm volatility this note documents the diverging trends in volatility of the growth rate of sales at the aggregate and firm levels we establish that the upward trend in firm volatility is not simply driven by a compositional bias in the sample studied we argue that this new fact brings into question the proposed explanations for the decline in aggregate volatility and that given the symmetry of the diverging trends at the micro and macro levels a common explanation is likely we conclude by describing one such theory

the asian debt and development crisis of 1997 causes and consequences abstract interpretations of the asian crisis have coalesced around two rival stories the death throes of asian state capitalism story about internal real economy causes and the panic triggering debt deflation in a basically sound but under regulated system story that gives more role to external and financial system causes the paper presents the stories and assesses the evidence the evidence in particular the chronology of the crisis supports the second rather better than the first the paper discusses the interests driving capital account liberalization without a framework of regulation the single most irresponsible act of public authorities in the whole crisis us and uk financial firms allied with their treasuries and with the imf the wto and the oecd saw themselves at a chronic disadvantage in the asian system of long term relationships and patient capital this alliance supported by segments of asian political and financial elites achieved dramatic domestic financial sector liberalization and capital account opening in asia over the 1990s setting up the conditions for crisis paradoxically the crisis may be looked back upon not as the triumph of benign globalization and neoliberal economic doctrine but as the beginning of its end

korea the misunderstood crisis abstract the article argues against the conventional wisdom that the current korean crisis is a crisis from underregulation rather than from overregulation it argues that ill managed financial liberalization abandonment of investment coordination and poor exchange rate management were the underlying causes of the crisis it then argues that while certain structural changes made such policy shifts somewhat inevitable there were also poor strategic choices and ideological prejudices involved the article finally discusses whether the current international monetary fund program of institutional reform in the anglo american direction will be able to revive the korean economy in the long run

a political economic analysis of the failure of neo liberal restructuring in post crisis korea this paper evaluates imf led neo liberal restructuring in post crisis korea the main conclusions are that the economic rebound in 1999 2000 was both incomplete and unsustainable restructuring created a ongoing credit crunch that continues to constrain investment spending korea may have been pushed onto a long term low investment low growth trajectory insecurity and inequality have risen substantially and the influence of foreign capital has dramatically increased the paper concludes by suggesting that koreans should reject radical neo liberal restructuring and consider instead reforms to democratise and modernise their traditional state guided growth model copyright 2002 oxford university press

developing countries changing nature of financial integration and new forms of external vulnerability the brazilian experience this article argues using the example of brazil that the changing nature of developing and emerging countries decs financial integration has created new forms of external vulnerability causing large and volatile capital and exchange rate movements despite sound fundamentals and a substantial reduction in its traditional external vulnerabilities the brazilian real has been one of the most volatile currencies over recent years the article argues that this has been the result of the surging exposure of foreign investors in an increasingly complex set of very short term domestic currency assets following a minskyan analysis we demonstrate that the changing nature of brazil s external vulnerability confirms both the inherent and endogenous instability of international capital flows and decs subordinate role in the international financial system we conclude with policy recommendations to reduce decs external vulnerability sustainably

modern macroeconomics in practice how theory is shaping policy over the last three decades macroeconomic theory and the practice of macroeconomics by economists have changed significantly for the better macroeconomics is now firmly grounded in the principles of economic theory we focus on the role of economic theory in shaping policy over the last several decades the united states and other countries have undertaken a variety of policy changes that are precisely what macroeconomic theory of the last 30 years suggests the evidence that theoretical advances have had a significant effect on the practice of policy is often hard to see for policymakers and advisers involved in the hurly burly of day to day policymaking but easy to see if one steps back and takes a longer term perspective examples of the effects of theory on the practice of policy include increased central bank independence adoption of inflation targeting and other rules to guide monetary policy increased reliance on consumption and labor taxes instead of capital income taxes and increased awareness of the costs of policies that distort labor markets

capital market imperfections and financialization of real sectors in emerging markets private investment and cash flow relationship revisited summary the paper analyzes the impacts of cash flow from multiple investments in real and financial sectors on the new fixed investment spending of real sector firms the empirical results based on the euler equation approach and semi annual firm level data from two major emerging markets mexico and turkey suggest that profits and rates of returns from fixed and financial assets have differential effects on fixed investment spending of real sector firms accordingly increasing availability and accessibility of alternative investment opportunities in financial markets can become instrumental in channeling real sector savings to short term financial investments instead of long term fixed capital formation and thus lead to deindustrialization

international risk sharing and economic growth international risk sharing which diversifies away income risk will reduce saving with constant relative risk aversion if growth arises from the external effects of human capital accumulation then reducing saving will reduce growth welfare also may fall with risk sharing because endogenous growth with external effects of capital accumulation typically implies a competitive equilibrium growth rate already less than the optimal growth rate we demonstrate these results in a standard representative agent economy diversifying away rate of return risk also will reduce saving and growth rates if relative risk aversion exceeds one but this diversification always increases welfare this paper studies the effects of international risk sharing portfolio diversification in a world economy in which growth rates of income are endogenous growth is based upon the spillover effects of human capital accumulation as in lucas 1988 and romer 1986 there are positive economy wide spillovers of human capital intensity on individual labour productivity in section 2 we construct a multi country growth model with an infinitely lived representative agent in each country each country faces income risk but there is no aggregate uncertainty at the world level we focus on two market structures in the first structure there are no markets which allow for international diversification of country specific income risk in the second structure there are complete international markets for risksharing with no aggregate world uncertainty this completeness allows full diversification of country specific risk the paper has two central results first growth rates in all countries are lower in the equilibrium with full diversification second in this same structure welfare of each country may be lower than in an equilibrium without risk sharing the reasoning is as follows with external effects of capital accumulation the compet

financial liberalisation and private investment evidence from turkey abstract the paper tests for shifts in aggregate private investment functions for turkey as a consequence of financial liberalisation in the early 1980s results for a neoclassical model in error correction form suggest that the short run dynamics of investment were altered by financial liberalisation with reduced sensitivity to the availability of credit but with no evidence of increased sensitivity to the cost of capital estimation of an euler equation model indicates that credit constraints remained binding after liberalisation we interpret this as evidence of significant structural change to private investment functions after financial liberalisation but with credit constraints continuing to operate

vancouver s gasoline price wars an empirical exercise in uncovering supergame strategies this paper uses a unique data set to determine which dynamic model of tacit collusion best describes behaviour in a particular industry the area investigated is a region of the vancouver british columbia retail gasoline market players are service station managers who compete daily firms choose price in each period using strategies that depend on prices chosen in the previous period periodically unanticipated demand shocks precipitate price wars when shocks occur the firms in the market must determine the new demand conditions and adjust their strategies from an econometric point of view slopes of intertemporal reaction functions are latent variables the resulting system of equations with time varying parameters is estimated via the kalman filter different repeated game oligopoly models correspond to different transition matrices for the latent variables the models can thus be assessed in terms of their power to explain firm behaviour in this market

tacit collusion with price matching punishments abstract tacit collusion is explored under a strategy in which loosely speaking firms match the lowest price set by any firm in the previous period conditions are provided under which this strategy supports collusive outcomes in a subgame perfect equilibrium in contrast to traditional results the highest collusive price is always lower than the monopoly price it corresponds to the unique nash equilibrium price when upward and downward price deviations are matched our paper provides a game theoretic interpretation of the old kinked demand curve theory which unlike earlier attempts does not depart from standard timing assumptions to do so

three and a half cycles of mania panic and asymmetric crash east asia and latin america compared this paper argues that despite some significant differences the 1982 debt crisis the 1994 mexican crisis and the 1997 east asian crisis share the common characteristic that over lending and over borrowing are basically endogenous market failures of over liquid and under regulated financial markets along the lines described by kindleberger s manias panics and crashes although these crashes have tended to be asymmetric as the largest international lenders have emerged relatively intact the paper concludes with a discussion of brazil s increasing vulnerability to a sudden collapse of confidence and withdrawal of finance which indicates the probability of another impending crisis

a new methodology linking concentration dynamics to current and steady state profits examining korean industrial policy during take off abstract we model the dynamics of industrial structure and market power using korean manufacturing data during the take off period 1978 82 structure conduct performance scp methodologies have been criticized for using accounting data and because a few superior firms may have greater shares and greater profits both are argued to present possible spurious correlations between concentration and profits this paper follows earlier work which shows that market structure responds to observed accounting profits as if these were accurate indices of real profits and not as if leading firms are perceived to have unmatchable advantages the methodological contribution of this model is a new latent variable for steady state profits derived from the speed of structural adjustment long run profits are identified by the hypothesis that structural adjustment will be more rapid when industries are farther from steady state levels we analyze the long run profits latent variable finding strong support for this hypothesis the speed of adjustment is greater for positive and negative deviations from steady state structure we show that the profits and structural adjustment relationship is non monotone the scp criticisms above are based on spurious correlations which are monotone in profits and structure positing spurious correlations which are at the same time monotone in structure and non monotone in structural adjustment seems less plausible than accepting the scp results which are consistent with both our analysis also is new in that it is the first direct econometric analysis of korean industrial policy during its take off years we note that in korea unlike elsewhere industrial policy was hypothesized to lead to concentration and market power in the popular press and by professional economists ours is the first direct econometric analysis of this hypothesis and we find it supported

the monetarist experiment in chile a critical survey abstract chile constitutes the most outstanding case of implementation of an extreme market economy model during nine years between 1973 and 1982 a model was implemented that for its pureness deepness and extension induced a drastic transformation of the chilean economy the main features of the model are examined focusing on the anti inflationary policy the reform of the financial system and the external opening then the global results concerning output income distribution and saving investment are studied the paper shows that the balance of the results was clearly negative during the 1973 1981 period output stagnated the concentration of wealth was spectacular and saving and investment rates fell significantly the characteristics themselves of the model and the weakening of the productive apparatus that they originated additionally explain that the international recession was multiplied during 1982 within the domestic economy the paper concludes with an attempt to interpret the main causes of the failure of this experiment

new perspectives on east asian development conventional explanations of rapid growth in east asia have focused on the efficient allocation of resources resulting from market led outward oriented strategies this study challenges that approach east asian success has centred around the accumulation dynamic both because of its direct importance to the growth process and also because of its close and interdependent linkages with exports on this basis the study considers the institutions and policies which were used to manage economic rents in support of rapid growth and to ensure a more strategic and orderly integration into the world economy the study also examines the contribution of regional trade and investment flows to east asian industrialisation the potential for replicating similar strategies is considered

volatility and investment interpreting evidence from developing countries we uncover a significant negative correlation between various volatility measures and private investment in developing countries even when adding the standard control variables no such correlation is uncovered when the investment measure is the sum of private and public investment spending indeed public investment spending is positively correlated with some ineasures of volatility these findings suggest that the detrimental impact of volatility on investment may be easier to detect using disaggregated data we provide several possible interpretations for our findings nonlinearities in preferences or budget constraints can cause volatility to have first order negative effects on private investment