malawi s agricultural development a success story abstract at a time when attention was focused on africa s poor agricultural performance malawi demonstrated a capacity not only to feed itself but to produce a surplus for export during the periods covered in this paper its agricultural growth exceeded that of most african countries and compared favorably with success stories on the continent this research focuses on malawi s recent performance with particular attention on trends in the provision of essential agro support services credit extension and farmer training and input supply and marketing trends in these services are examined first at the national level and then at the district level while overall trends indicate substantial progress district level data reveal extensive unevenness moreover at the farm level census data on farmer training and technology utilization show fewer benefits to female operators and smaller farmers important elements of developmentally oriented infrastructure and services have been put in place and are functioning better than in most african countries this is important in terms of longer term agricultural development prospects there is ample evidence however that malawi s progress has not spread across different segments of the farm population or agriculture development districts both the unevenness and overall progress have been heavily influenced by donor support

food insecurity poverty and the malawian starter pack fresh start or false start abstract chronic food insecurity and chronic poverty are closely related in malawi since independence in 1964 national food security has been a key policy objective however until the 1990s less emphasis was placed on the household dimensions of food security and its links with chronic poverty in the last decade a number of initiatives have been used in malawi to tackle the issue of household food insecurity one of the most controversial has been the starter pack programme launched in 1998 initially consisting of a free handout of packs of improved maize seed legumes and fertiliser to every small holder farm household in malawi the scheme under donor pressure was subsequently scaled down to become a form of targeted social safety net programme this paper analyses the strengths and weakness of both the original programme and its scaled down version and assesses the reason for the considerable opposition to the programme from malawi s donor community although starter pack is no longer operative in malawi the malawian experience is used to derive lessons for other countries where household food insecurity is an important dimension of chronic poverty

modeling growth and liberalization using smooth transitions analysis i introduction there is a large and growing literature on liberalization and its effects stimulated initially by the very extensive trade reform programs promoted in developing countries over the last fifteen years or so and sustained by the attempts to understand what is happening in the eastern and central european economies the latter do not feature in this paper though the techniques demonstrated here may in time prove to be useful for gaining insight into the effects of regime changes underway liberalization in the sense of trade reforms which reduce anti export bias in one way or another while improving the information content of relative price changes has been promoted in some eighty or so developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s some of these liberalizations are unilateral most are policy conditioned under the aegis of world bank structural adjustment loans sals 1 all have been undertaken on the assumption that liberalization will ultimately improve export and growth performance the evidence on liberalization and growth however is at best somewhat mixed on the one hand one has the exhaustive study of papageorgiou michaely and choksi 1991 which claims a close and direct association on the other hand greenaway and sapsford 1994 find only a limited role for liberalization and a range of studies of sals associate adjustment with a deterioration in growth performance 2 these studies generally rely either on crude data inspection simple correlation analysis or multivariate regression this paper takes a new approach to the question it starts from the presumption that any changes in economic performance following a liberalization may be more appropriately modeled as a steady transition rather than a discrete change to model the change in this way we make use of the recent work of granger and terasvirta 1994 who explore the properties of a variety of nonlinear specifications that facilitate modeling structural change as a smooth transition between states we estimate and test the adequacy of a number of such specifications our analysis is in two stages first we take a novel approach to the modeling of growth which allows us to model deterministic change without as other analysts have done imposing discrete changes not only does this help clarify the statistical properties of the time series it also challenges the assumptions that underpin much growth modeling having identified the transitions in the growth series we are investigating we then explore the coincidence of these transitions with well documented episodes of liberalization we do not formally test whether liberalization results in growth our results are however informative in two respects firstly they place a question mark against the widely held presumption that liberalization is a panacea for growth secondly they also point the way to the appropriate econometric modeling of these processes the remainder of the paper is structured as follows section ii briefly describes the context against which our analysis is set section iii sets out the details of our methodology and the models to be tested section iv reports our results contrasts them with those of previous work and evaluates the implications for policy section v concludes and identifies possible extensions ii liberalization exports and growth previous evidence there are essentially two strands of the literature which provide relevant background one which relates exports and growth a second which relates liberalization to exports and growth the exports and growth literature is an extensive one which goes back some years 3 it starts from the presumption that exports and growth are directly related with causality running from changes in exports to changes in growth 4 analysts have deployed a variety of empirical methods usually of growth accounting type models and covering a range of countries and time periods

devaluation investment and growth in ldcs abstract this paper examines the short and long run effects of devaluation in a model where following structuralist theories investment is treated as output of a composite good produced by combining domestic and imported components in fixed proportions introducing investment goods of this type alters a number of results most notably the marshall lerner condition is neither necessary nor sufficient for an expansionary outcome and under simple and plausible conditions a devaluation may worsen the payments balance

can structural adjustment work for women farmers this article discusses the impact of structural adjustment programs saps on women farmers in developing countries saps aim to improve economic efficiency and promote more rapid economic growth saps are introduced in two phases the first phase involves short term loans with the condition that the country adopt monetary restraints and currency devaluation measures in the second phase long term loans are given with the provision that the country deregulate their economy and open up markets the agricultural sector is affected by saps because of their importance in employment income generation and export earnings saps result in lower farm commodity prices due to currency devaluations and in removal of subsidies which results in market sensitive pricing or higher food prices the impact of saps on agriculture vary between countries in morocco and algeria agriculture expanded under saps in indonesia bolivia costa rica and mexico the agriculture stagnated or declined agricultural growth was slowest in africa saps were somewhat successful in increasing agricultural exports food production grew slowly in many adjusting countries blame for failures of saps has been placed on government failure to implement reforms properly and overly optimistic assumptions about the timing of productive gains little attention has focused on the constraints facing women farmers who are a large proportion of farmers particularly in sub saharan africa this article focuses on the issues of limited access to resources credit agricultural extension and information land ownership education and time as constraints to women farmers women also must ensure household food security for saps to work effectively complementary policies must be implemented that reallocate available productive resources and new technologies to women and that deal with womens constraints

adjustment trade policy and investment slumps evidence from africa abstract this paper presents a model of investment in six african economies over the 1970s and 80s paying particular attention to the impact of the policy reforms which have accompanied structural adjustment programmes a priori the impact of trade reform on investment can be positive or negative in practise there is some evidence that it might be negative

the italian recession of 1993 aggregate implications of microeconomic evidence we use household level data covering a ten year period 1984 to 1993 to investigate the likely determinants of the italian recession of 1993 the first year after wwii when private consumption fell consumption fell most for working age households and for the self employed our evidence is consistent with the response to permanent negative shocks due to the major pension reform of 1992 and the introduction of stricter tax compliance measures for the self employed this is still true when we control for the role played by job losses and the collapse of the retail sector that characterized the early 1990s

african economic development in a comparative perspective conventional explanations of poor african economic performance generally fail to pay adequate attention to causal mechanisms of growth decline and stagnation many african countries experienced investment booms after independence but in contrast to east asian newly industrialising economies these were not sustained owing to failure to establish a virtuous growth circle involving complementary increases in savings and exports structural adjustment programmes dismantled stat mediated mechanisms of accumulation without putting viable alternatives in place and failed to tackle the structural constraints which impede productivity growth in agriculture a new policy approach drawing on the experience of both post colonial and adjustment periods is necessary copyright 2001 by oxford university press

gendered impacts of the 2007 2008 food price crisis evidence using panel data from rural ethiopia abstract this paper provides empirical evidence on the gendered impact of the 2007 2008 food price crisis using panel data on 1400 households from rural ethiopia that were initially surveyed before the onset of the crisis in 1994 1995 1997 and 2004 and after food prices spiked in 2009 it investigates whether female headed households are more likely to report experiencing a food price shock and whether female headed households experiencing a shock are more or less likely to adopt certain coping strategies controlling for individual household and community characteristics our findings suggest that female headed households are more vulnerable to food price changes and are more likely to have experienced a food price shock in 2007 2008 because female headed households are also resource poor and have a larger food gap compared with male headed households they cope by cutting back on the number of meals they provide their households during good months and eating less preferred foods in general a combination of short term measures to protect diet diversity and micronutrient consumption of vulnerable groups and longer term measures to promote investment in sustainable agriculture such as strengthening women s property rights may increase the ability of poor and vulnerable households to cope better with food price increases

growth oriented adjustment programs a statistical analysis after the fall in average per capita gdp growth that took place in the 1980s adjustment lending programs supported by the international monetary fund imf and the world bank wb were launched in response to the deteriorating external environment the purpose of this paper is to evaluate and to assess statistically the extent to which adjustment programs supported by the imf and the wb have restored growth the evaluation relied on a large sample of countries 93 and controls for some of the statistical difficulties associated with measuring the effectiveness of adjustment programs the paper reviews the environment under which imf wb lending took place the rationale for adjustment lending and the distribution of adjustment loans through time the results of the statistical evaluation suggest that after controlling for external factors and for initial conditions growth is not higher in countries that receive imf wb funds but that investment was significantly lower than for non recipient countries the paper also examines further long term growth prospects

evaluating the impact of world bank structural adjustment lending 1980 87 this article attempts to evaluate the world bank s programme aid in the form of structural adjustment loans with emphasis on the distinction between the influence of programme finance and the influence of the policy conditions attached to this finance the rate of return on world bank programme aid measured in terms of the impact of gdp growth rates is found to have been disappointing the study also identifies a negative correlation between structural adjustment loans and investment it was also found that the bank programme aid s strongest beneficial effect has been on the balance of payments current account both via the stimulation of exports and via the curbing of imports

the effectiveness of structural adjustment lending initial evidence from malawi abstract the world bank s new programs of structural adjustment lending are likely to prove most effective with those governments which demonstrate shared ideals in their approach to economic adjustment and policy reform malawi has long been regarded as a country placing great reliance on the market in resource allocation showing restraint in public sector expansion and retaining a strong export orientation the balance of payments difficulties and the deterioration in economic circumstances which began in 1980 did not arise solely from external shocks but the structural adjustment lending programs introduced in 1981 as a means of easing the painful reform process found root in a fertile and responsive policy environment this paper chronicles the first two sals to malawi reviewing in particular the specific policy reforms advocated and required by the bank the extent of their implementation and the provisional effects on the malawi economy

modelling the impact of world bank policy based lending the case of malawi s agricultural sector this article uses a multi market agricultural pricing model to analyse the impact of the world bank s three structural adjustment loans sals to malawi on the smallholder agricultural sector three price policy scenarios are simulated on the model representing zero partial and full compliance with the bank s sal price policy conditionality these scenarios are analysed in terms of their impact on the government budget smallholder real incomes maize production exportable cash crop production and the balance of payments critiques of the bank s programme and the government and bank bargaining strategies are assessed in the light of the modelling results

how did workers benefit from bolivia s emergency social fund bolivia s emergency social fund esf was established to cushion the adverse effects on the poor of the economic crisis and subsequent stabilization program in the 1980s and to facilitate transition through the phases of structural adjustment the esf provided temporary employment opportunities by funding small scale labor intensive projects that were proposed by local governmental and nongovernmental organizations this article measures the impact of the esf program on employment and income of workers in the esf projects for the average esf worker hourly wages were 12 8 percent higher the work week was 9 5 hours longer and weekly earnings were 32 percent higher than what they would have been without the esf taking into account the probability that the individual may not have worked without the esf leads to larger gains the greatest benefits from participating in the program were received by those who would have been least well off without it

migration and institutions exit and voice from abroad a rapidly growing body of research examines the relationship between migration and institutions three strands of studies can be distinguished some studies focused on the role of domestic and foreign institutions in the decision to migrate others were interested by the impact of migration on institutional reforms in migrants countries of origin while the effect of migration on destination countries is largely documented recent studies focus on how migrants affect social and informal institutions in the destination countries this survey puts together these three strands of literature with three purposes first we offer a short definition and synthetic typology of institutions which provide a guide to understand several studies summarized and their results second our analysis is presented following the analytic framework exit voice and loyalty of hirschman in order to highlight the brain grain phenomenon for developing countries from an institutional point of view third we review the limited existing work on the very timely topic whether migrants are harmful or not to institutions in the host countries

the poor and the social sectors during a period of macroeconomic adjustment empirical evidence for jamaica considerable uncertainty remains about the human impact of macroeconomic adjustment analysis of the impact of adjustment on the poor and on the social sectors is difficult because it involves evaluating a counterfactual situation in which households are affected by prices incomes and public services with the possibility of substantial substitutions all within an economywide framework with complicated concurrent and lagged interactions time series data for jamaica is utilized in this article to examine whether macroeconomic adjustment initiated in the early 1980s but intensified in 1984 85 was associated with significant deterioration in various indicators of health nutritional and welfare outcomes particularly among the poor although the authors find evidence of substantial cuts in governmental expenditures on social services there is little confirmation of significant short run deterioration in human capital indicators during the adjustment period

the impact of agricultural liberalisation on food security in malawi abstract the donor supported structural adjustment programmes have not impacted favourably on livelihoods food security and the general welfare of the poor in malawi this resulted from the prescription of wrong policy packages and limited attention to poverty alleviation policies policies have tended to concentrate on promoting market and price mechanisms less on addressing production constraints and non economic barriers to broad based economic growth there are losers and winners as a result of policy reforms in agricultural produce marketing the losers are mainly the smallholder farmers in the category of net food buyers low income or wage earners in urban and semi urban areas and smallholder farmers in remote areas the winners are smallholder farmers in the category of net food sellers private traders institutional traders and the state marketing agency the paper analyses the impact of pricing policy and market deregulation on the state marketing organisation and on the private marketing system highlighting the lessons to be learned and making recommendations on how to improve the food security situation at the household level

adjustment growth and income distribution in indonesia during the decade of the 1970s and until 1982 the growth performance of the indonesian economy was very good with gdp growing at 7 2 percent per annum oil exports provided the major engine of growth for the entire economy during that period in addition within agriculture growth was fueled by the boom in paddy production which converted indonesia from the largest rice importing country in the world to virtual self sufficiency by the mid 1980s paddy production increased at an annual rate of 7 1 percent between 1978 80 and 1983 4 the two oil price booms of 1973 and more particularly 1979 fueled a major expansion of the economy which lasted until the crisis the predominant role of the oil sector is clearly revealed by recalling that earnings from crude oil and petroleum products accounted for two thirds of all export earnings one fourth of total gnp and 70 percent of government domestic revenues in 1982 oil prices peaked in 1982 and revenues from this sector started to contract reducing drastically the basis and prospects for economic growth

from labor to finance understanding the failure of socialist economic policies in spain this article seeks to explain the spanish socialist party s psoe s failure to reverse spain s dismal employment record during the course of its long government tenure from 1982 until 1996 most efforts to explain spain s position at the extreme of the unemployment spectrum in europe follow the prevalent tendency in the comparative political economy literature by giving causal primacy to labor market institutions this article challenges this labor market centered view by arguing that the failure of the socialist government s economic policy strategy is to be found in the interaction of two other factors the biased course of financial liberalization and the perverse effects of the psoe s macroeconomic policy strategy on inflation and on the process of social concertation national wage bargaining the article also seeks to explain the psoe s choices in these policy areas

small system modelling of real wages inflation unemployment and output per capita in italy 1970 1994 the relationships between real wages output per capita inflation and unemployment in italy between 1970 and 1994 are modelled using a cointegrated vector autoregression there is evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria and in the dynamic evolution of the variables probably associated with the substantial changes in many sectors of the italian economy after 1979 alternative ways to model structural change in the italian labour market are considered in adopting a split sample approach the results favour an hysteresis interpretation of unemployment

managing adjustment costs political authority and the implementation of adjustment programs with special reference to african countries abstract the degree to which a government implements a program given no disruptive factors depends critically on its legitimate authority to carry out the program and the degree to which management aspects notably management costs of the program were satisfactorily dealt with at the design stage program designers should understand the nature dimensions justification and basis of legitimate authority when the government s legitimate authority is inadequate program designers must advise the government to obtain it a properly designed program should also include measures to speed up entry prevent inefficient exit and minimize unemployment and underutilization of capacity have a framework for ensuring competitive and open markets and arm the program manager with tools to alleviate social tensions arising from certain distributional consequences and to respond to predictable nationalistic preferences

u turns and full circles two decades of agricultural reform in malawi 1981 2000 abstract this paper traces the evolution of malawi s agricultural policy over the past two decades during this period the world bank has played a key role in shaping policy reform through its adjustment loans three distinct reform phases can be identified 1981 87 when policy was dominated by the dogmatism of the world bank s pricist and state minimalist policies 1988 94 when a more flexible position was taken by both the bank and the malawi government both of whom acknowledged the structuralist critique of earlier policies and 1994 to the present when the reform process in agriculture became more politicized and a schism developed between the bank and the government this latter period is used to illustrate some of the unresolved policy issues pertaining to similar low income agrarian economies

educational policies in a long run perspective in this paper we study the effects of educational reforms on school attainment we construct a dataset of relevant reforms that occurred at the national level over the last century and match individual information from 24 european countries to the most likely set up faced when individual educational choices were undertaken our identification strategy relies on temporal and geographical variations in the institutional arrangements controlling for time country fixed effects as well as for country specific time trend by characterizing each group of reforms for their impact on mean years of education educational inequality and intergenerational persistence we show an ideal policy menu which has been available to policymakers we distinguish between groups of policies that are either inclusive or selective depending on their diminishing or augmenting impact on inequality and persistence finally we correlate these reform measures to political coalitions prevailing in parliament finding support for the idea that left wing parties support reforms that are inclusive while right wing parties prefer selective ones michela braga daniele checchi and elena meschi

political regimes and economic growth arguments that relate regimes to growth focus on property rights pressures for immediate consumption and the autonomy of dictators while everyone seems to agree that secure property rights foster growth it is controversial whether democracies or dictatorships better secure these rights the main mechanism by which democracy is thought to hinder growth is pressure for immediate consumption which reduces investment only states that are institutionally insulated from such pressures can resist them and democratic states are not the main argument against dictatorships is that authoritarian rulers have no interest in maximizing total output these views are summarized in turn

constrained geographical mobility and gendered labor market outcomes under structural adjustment evidence from egypt summary we examine in this paper the evolution of gender gaps in labor market outcomes during structural adjustment and explore the extent to which widening gaps can be attributed to women s more limited geographical mobility using comparable household surveys carried out in 1988 and 1998 we show that gender gaps in access to wage and salary employment and in earnings have widened during this period especially in the nongovernmental sector we attribute these changes at least in part to women s more limited geographical mobility we show that women s commuting rates are not only much lower than those of men but also have remained stagnant in a period where males were having to travel significantly more to obtain jobs outside the government

investment trade liberalisation and structural adjustment the disappointing investment response in developing countries to world bank structural adjustment lending sals is considered in the light of a theoretical model of the impact of trade liberalisation and tightening balance of payments constraints on investment the policy reforms under sals are not as conducive to increased investment as they may appear to be at first sight the tendency of countries to apply for sals when confronted with serious balance of payments disequilibrium is also an important factor however there is no evidence that sals are associated with a downward shift in the investment function

structural change in malawi since independence consequences of a development strategy based on large scale agriculture abstract this paper investigates the nature of the structural change which has occured in the malawian economy since independence and identifies key policies pursued by the government which it is argued have been decisive in shaping this development the salient feature of structural change is shown to be the rapid growth of large scale agriculture associated with an equally rapid transfer of labour into wage employment and a decline in the importance of peasant production the implications of these changes for living standards and future development and policy are considered

the privatization of agricultural trading in malawi abstract this paper examines the privatization of smallholder agricultural output marketing in malawi despite problems with implementing the privatization program including serious disruptions in the supply of maize the staple food the move toward greater private sector involvement in agricultural marketing has been successful nonetheless several medium term development issues e g food security and buyer and seller of last resort functions need to be addressed in the context of relations between the marketing parastatal admarc and the private sector before the policy change can be regarded as fully successful

unemployment and the labour management conspiracy we study a model in which management and a union bargain sequentially first choosing a rule that will later determine the level of employment and then choosing a wage the government then chooses an output or an employment subsidy an exogenous natural turnover rate in the unionized sector creates unemployment whenever the union wage exceeds the competitive wage government intervention can increase both the equilibrium amount of unemployment and worsen the intersectoral allocation of labour because of the induced change in the endogenous wage unemployment weakens but does not eliminate the possibility of a labour management conspiracy

has recovery begun africa s adjustment in the 1980s revisited this article reviews the 1989 debate between the world bank and the economic commission for africa over africa s adjustment and on the basis of most recent statistics concludes that there is little evidence that the region is in throes of a recovery some countries however did relatively better than others in the 1980s and an attempt is made to account for differences in performance it is concluded that success in adjustment results not from world bank international monetary fund programs as such but rather from policy coherence accompanied by healthy movement in key variables namely the real exchange rate and public development expenditure

exploring the political economy of labour market institutions labour markets how reforms took place many economists argue that the european unemployment problem relates to large labour market rigidities this paper argues that many of those inflexibilities and the underlying institutional regulations can be understood as the outcome of political influence by incumbent employees this is because many policies that increase unemployment actually benefit these insiders an empirical investigation of the determinants of labour market institutions demonstrates that the observations are consistent with this view the findings imply 1 higher exposure of the employed to unemployment facilitates a reduction in the level of employment protection 2 unemployment benefits are lower the more employment reacts to wages 3 a higher level of unemployment and the existence of a right wing government slow down the growth rate of the minimum wage giles saint paul

governance and real estate markets performance in nigeria are they related governance has been identified as a key determining variable capable of influencing the performance of any economy activity on this note the study undertakes to investigate the relationship between governance and the real estate markets performance in nigeria the study employs ardl methodology of bound testing approach for the quarterly series spanning 1996q1 to 2010q4 of the variables considered the prominent role of real gdp and governance index were clearly brought to fore both in the short and long run while that of inflation and interest rates were less pronounced statistically the result of ecm further accentuates connection between governance and the real estate market through the establishment a stable long run relationship between them in the final analysis a few policy prescriptions are advice for the attention of all stakeholders in the built environment

domestic governance and international migration abstract with growing disparities between the levels of material wealth in rich and poor countries migration appears to be a attractive option for inhabitants of less developed countries simultaneously there has been a growing interest in the potential contribution of good governance to economic development this paper explores the link between governance and migration and concludes on the basis of cross sectional empirical evidence that governance may indeed be a significant factor in determining the rates of emigration from poor countries to wealthy ones

financial liberalisation and private investment evidence from turkey abstract the paper tests for shifts in aggregate private investment functions for turkey as a consequence of financial liberalisation in the early 1980s results for a neoclassical model in error correction form suggest that the short run dynamics of investment were altered by financial liberalisation with reduced sensitivity to the availability of credit but with no evidence of increased sensitivity to the cost of capital estimation of an euler equation model indicates that credit constraints remained binding after liberalisation we interpret this as evidence of significant structural change to private investment functions after financial liberalisation but with credit constraints continuing to operate

is a turnaround in africa possible without helping african women to farm a turnaround in africa is not possible in the short run of at least 1 decade without helping women farmers with hand hoes gain equal access to basic agricultural inputs and resources this is so because women are such active participants in farming it is estimated that for 82 countries women constitute 46 of the agricultural labor force in sub saharan africa and 31 of the force in north africa and the middle east in the long run however a turnaround is possible without helping women to farm because women farmers will be displaced as agricultural intensification occurs but because the intensification process will be extremely uneven both within and between african countries the displacement of women farmers will also be uneven thus their displacement will be blocked or slowed down in regions with sufficient land resources and land extensive family systems extensive male out migration lack of control of animal diseases or the presence of gender neutral incentives to produce in conclusion women farmers in these regions will still be the norm while those in other regions will be displaced as intensification required by a turnaround proceeds to insure that women farmers are not displaced policy planners at international national and local levels should communicate with technical experts and extension specialists about the need to incorporate women as agricultural producers with full access to yield increasing inputs in development projects

the role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy in this paper we explore the role of labor markets for monetary policy in the euro area in a new keynesian model in which labor markets are characterized by search and matching frictions we first investigate to which extent a more flexible labor market would alter the business cycle behavior and the transmission of monetary policy we find that while a lower degree of wage rigidity makes monetary policy more effective i e a monetary policy shock transmits faster onto inflation the importance of other labor market rigidities for the transmission of shocks is rather limited second having estimated the model by bayesian techniques we analyze to which extent labor market shocks such as disturbances in the vacancy posting process shocks to the separation rate and variations in bargaining power are important determinants of business cycle fluctuations our results point primarily towards disturbances in the bargaining process as a significant contributor to inflation and output fluctuations in sum the paper supports current central bank practice which appears to put considerable effort into monitoring euro area wage dynamics and which appears to treat some of the other labor market information as less important for monetary policy

incorporation and exclusion the life cycle of malawi s refugee assistance program abstract the dynamics of institutional relationships in assistance provision to 1 2 million mozambican refugees in malawi are examined three phases are identified an innovative model of assistance delivery integrating refugees and hosts in a development orientated program was established in the early phases this avoided the parallel structures of orthodox relief operations within the context of its political economy the government of malawi successfully mediated competing interests incrementally the host government lost autonomy this is explained in terms of pressures to internationalize and diversify the program and the adoption of a conventional relief model focusing only on refugees and emergency assistance with extensive repatriation the program is winding down the lessons learned are discussed

before it gets better the short term employment costs of regulatory reforms the article exploits long time series of industry level data in a group of oecd countries to analyze the short term labor market effects of reforms that lower barriers to entry and dismissal costs estimates show that both policies induce non negligible transitory employment losses the strength of these effects varies depending on the underlying industry and labor market structure and on cyclical conditions the employment cost of deregulation is higher in economic downturns and negligible in good times these findings prove robust to a set of specification and sensitivity checks and are confirmed after standard reverse causality and falsification tests

wage size relation and the structure of work force composition in italian manufacturing firms in this paper we study the impact of firms productivity and scale of activity on the cost of labour for italian manufacturing firms investigating how the work force composition affects the total expenditures for wages our analysis reveals that once productivity differences among firms are accounted for size still retains a positive effect on cost of labour we show that the source of this phenomenon is the relatively higher proportion of non production workers in bigger firms which results in a cost of labour for white collar workers that increases with increasing firm size copyright the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

perspectives and problems of development in sub saharan africa this paper analyzes the initial conditions for development facing post colonial african nations outlines alternative development strategies followed by different groups of countries and assesses the consequences for growth and poverty alleviation on the basis of this diagnosis the paper outlines a number of policy priorities for the future including greater research extension and infrastructure support for smallholder agriculture an improvement in the overall structure of incentives in favor of agriculture a more realistic urban formal sector wage structure to reduce rural urban migration and foster a more internationally competitive manufacturing sector and greater emphasis on surplus generation through government budgets and parastatal enterprises

pricing policies in africa with special reference to agricultural development in malawi abstract microeconomic policy in the controlled market economy of malawi rests upon three fundamental balances these are the food export balance the rural urban income linkage and the domestic donor contribution to development capital there are therefore six major domestic polarities food and exports rural and urban domestic and donor within the microeconomic system any change in one will necessitate changes in the other five or the triplex becomes unbalanced this is the rigidity in the capacity of small economies to adjust

crossing the river a comparative perspective on italian employment dynamics crossing the river a comparative perspective on italian employment dynamics this paper studies the unprecedented job destruction which occurred throughout europe during the recession of the early 1990s it raises the question whether changes in the institutional structure of various countries labour markets may have deepened the normal effects of the recession institutional legal and sociopolitical safety nets were used to protect many european employees from technological and demand shocks throughout the 1970s and early 1980s important steps have since been taken to deregulate industrial relations european labour markets may currently be in the middle of the river they already experience the negative employment aspects of an american labour market without yet enjoying its benefits based on a study of several countries the article concludes that the social costs of deregulation will be smallest if the intended destination of the transition is reached credibly and without hesitation policy makers must point decisively towards a well defined riverbank rather than leaving the labour market in the middle of the stream giuseppe bertola and andrea ichino

structural adjustment and the welfare of rural smallholders a comparative analysis from sub saharan africa the direction and level of changes in real incomes brought about by structural adjustment are determined by a variety of factors including sources of income patterns of expenditures and movements in relative prices in the wake of adjustment an econometric model is used to derive an index of real income which is employed for data from cote d ivoire ghana malawi madagascar and tanzania no systematic changes in relative prices and especially in the ratio of tradable to nontradable prices were noted after the beginning of adjustment although the diversity of income sources implies that the implications of movements in relative prices on smallholder welfare are indeed complex the results indicate that there is no unequivocal pattern of increase or decline in the real welfare of the rural poor but that there are marked differences among countries and regions

the gender dimensions of economic adjustment policies potential interactions and evidence to date abstract many developing countries have implemented stabilization and structural adjustment programs over the last 20 years the success of these programs depends critically on individual level responses to changing economic incentives access to control of and an ability to move productive economic resources between sectors is determined in part by gender if an individual s gender impedes their ability to fully participate in the economic adjustment process by inhibiting resource access control or movement adjustment will be impaired this paper discusses the potential gender dimensions of structural adjustment policies and examines the evidence to dale

the sectoral structure of poverty during an adjustment period evidence for indonesia in the mid 1980s the authors examine the structure of poverty in indonesia by sector of employment and how it changed during the adjustment period 1984 to 1987 they find that while aggregate poverty decreased during the period the gains to the poor were quite uneven across regions and sectors gains to the rural sector in key regions were quantitatively important to indonesia s success in alleviating poverty they found most poverty exists and most gains in alleviating poverty were made in the rural farming sector these gains were associated with crop diversification and continued growth in off farm employment the government s adjustment program favored rural areas and were crucial to indonesia s evident success at maintaining momentum in alleviating poverty however one should not underrate the favorable conditions in indonesia when adjustment started

adjustment with a fixed exchange rate cameroon cote d ivoire and senegal as members of the cfa franc zone cameroom cote d ivoire and senegal cannot use the nominal exchange rate as a tool of macroeconomic adjustment this article considers these countries responses to the commodity and oil price shocks of the 1970s in light of this and other institutional constraints using a two sector model it shows that there exist instruments that in principle permit the real exchange rate depreciation necessary for adjusting to macroeconomic imbalances the authors interpret the very different adjustment experiences of the three countries despite their common economic structure and institutional setting in terms of different uses of these instruments alternative assumptions about the labour market leave the qualitative nature of the results unaltered statistical analysis of data from the three countries confirms the model s linking of the current account and real exchange rate with the instruments of adjustment

fiscal dependence on trade taxes and trade policy reform the article focuses on fiscal implications of structural adjustment loans sals from an a priori standpoint and by reference to the experience of five countries three of these countries have had revenue enhancement after trade policy reforms and the other two cases experienced revenue depletion the central point which emerges from the study is that it is not clear that trade liberalisation leads to fiscal enhancement or fiscal depletion both a priori the orising and country analyses demonstrate that a range of outcomes is possible depending upon initial conditions and the components of any reform package

green gold burley tobacco smallholder agriculture and poverty alleviation in malawi abstract the abolition in 1990 of the estate monopoly on cultivation of burley tobacco is expected to play an important role in reducing poverty among smallholders in malawi a nationwide survey in 1993 shows that smallholder households cultivating burley also grow more hybrid maize use more fertilizer and are more food secure but resource poor households particularly those headed by women face land and labor constraints on burley adoption burley and hybrid maize increase the demand for hired labor but not enough to absorb the growth in the rural labor force broad based poverty alleviation requires technology and programs targeted at the majority of smallholders with holdings of 0 5 hectares or less

tax revenue instability with particular reference to sub saharan africa this article examines the temporal instability of tax revenues across a sample of developed and less developed countries it is shown that instability is especially high in ldcs and is highest in open economies with low per capita income high output variance and inflationary problems even allowing for these factors revenue instability appears to be particularly high in sub saharan africa revenue instability can be expected via the government budget constraint to be associated with expenditure instability and or instability in the sources of deficit finance cross section evidence for ldcs confirms that countries with high tax revenue instability tend also to have high expenditure instability time series evidence for six african countries however suggests that revenues and expenditures do not move together in a uniform manner and the direction of causality is generally ambiguous there is some evidence however that foreign borrowing is used more to finance expenditure increases than to counteract

financial determinants of domestic investment in sub saharan africa evidence from panel data abstract this study investigates the effects of financial development on domestic investment in a sample of 30 sub saharan african countries it is based on a dynamic serial correlation investment model including various indicators of financial development controlling for country specific fixed effects and nonfinancial factors of investment the results indicate a positive relationship between domestic investment total investment and private investment and various indicators of financial development higher financial development leads to higher future levels of investment implying a potent long run effect of financial development on domestic investment the findings imply that financial development can stimulate economic growth through capital accumulation

engendering macroeconomics a reconsideration of growth theory abstract macroeconomics is gender biased because of its neglect of the reproductive sector this neglect is formalized in the assumptions supporting most macroeconomic models that population and the mapping from population to the labor force are determined exogenously the use of these assumptions is demonstrated for the case of the aggregate growth models which have evolved from harrod s original contribution in addition the development growth literature is shown to harbor a similar neglect some suggestions are made as to how these assumptions might be relaxed and some elements of a consequent theory and data project outlined

measures to assist the least developed countries the case of malawi abstract many of the national measures introduced by the malawi government following the un conference on least developed countries 1981 accord with the substantial new program of action snpa agreed to at the conference these include improving the performance of the productive sectors especially agriculture and strengthening key institutions but demand management policies for financial stabilization as part of world bank imf loans with level funding for development expenditure and cuts in recurrent expenditure do not provide the basis for an snpa the international community has failed to fulfil its commitments in the snpa since aid to malawi has fallen lessons of this experience are drawn for other least developed countries

migration incentives migration types the role of relative deprivation the authors explore the role of relative deprivation versus absolute income as an incentive for migration in developing countries in section i of this paper we outline the relative deprivation model of migration and present an illustration of the divergent policy implications of a relative deprivation model versus an absolute income model an attempt is made to identify distinct empirical implications of relative and absolute income motives for migrating in section ii a migration decision model is estimated and is used to explore absolute and relative income motives for internal and international migration in a sample of rural mexican households as well as to test the extent to which discontinuity in labour markets shapes the choice of migrant destination in section iii we present our conclusions excerpt