institutions and equilibrium in the united states supreme court over the last decade the scholarship on judicial politics has increasingly emphasized the strategic aspects of decision making in the united states supreme court this scholarship however has struggled with two significant limitations the restriction to unidimensional policy spaces and the assumption of binary comparisons of alternatives these two assumptions have the advantage of implying stable predictable outcomes but lack a sound theoretical foundation and assume away potentially important aspects of strategic behavior on the court in this article we identify institutional features of the court that under certain conditions allow us to relax these two assumptions without sacrificing stable predictable policy outcomes in particular we formalize the part by part opinion voting used by the justices a feature that together with separable preferences over policy issues implies stable policy outcomes around the issue by issue median of the justices

resource curse or not a question of appropriability this thesis presents three self contained essays focusing on empirical questions in growth and development economics each article addresses specific questions on why countries perform differently in particular i analyse the effect of democracy on economic development the relationship between natural resources and growth and the efficiency of foreign development assistance in the first essay democracy consolidation and growth i analyse the effect of democracy on economic growth in this context i argue that an important aspect to consider is how consolidated political systems are put simply i find that it is not only a question of how democratic countries are but also how long they have been democratic in other words economic performance tends to improve with the duration of uninterrupted democracy the performance of autocracies on the other hand tends to deteriorate over time however for newly established political systems there seems to be a cost of being democratic this implies that democracies only bear their fruit after some time the analysis has important policy implications to overcome initial straits international assistance focused on democratic consolidation may be important and a very good investment in fostering long run development the second essay resource curse or not a question of appropriability together with anne boschini and jesper roine is concerned with the relation between natural resources and economic development for most laymen as well as for most economists it would seem reasonable that countries richly endowed in natural resources also benefit from this wealth however a large literature has found a systematic negative effect of natural resource abundance on economic growth we suggest that this so called resource curse is not determined by resource endowments alone but rather by the interaction between the type of resources a country possesses and the quality of institutions in the country this combination of factors determines what we call the appropriability of a resource the concept of appropriability captures the likelihood of natural resources leading to rentseeking corruption or conflicts which in turn will harm economic development our results suggest that if institutions are good enough the curse may be turned into a blessing this may explain why some countries such as norway and botswana tend to benefit from their resources while others such as angola and sierra leone do not the third and final essay of this thesis foreign sectoral aid fungibility growth and poverty reduction is a contribution to the aid efficiency literature which is concerned with the question of whether aid helps or hinders economic development foreign development assistance is often targeted on specific public expenditure sectors if this aid is not used in the sector for which it was granted e g health education it is said to be fungible and donors may end up financing something completely different from what they intended e g military expenditures the major concern about sectoral fungibility is that the alternative use of aid may be less productive or less socially useful however measuring fungibility is not sufficient to determine whether foreign sectoral aid fungibility is actually harmful what is important is how the funds treated as fungible are used the essay starts by obtaining estimates of fungibility for 57 countries the results suggest that sectoral aid is indeed largely treated as fungible by recipient countries next to assess the economic and health effects of fungibility these estimates are incorporated into an empirical model of aid and growth as well as into a model of aid and infant mortality altogether i find no evidence of more fungible sectoral aid leading to worse performance

rent seeking and resource booms abstract this paper develops a model of rent seeking in which the opportunity cost of rent seeking is foregone entrepreneurship it provides conditions under which resource booms tend to lead to an increase in rent seeking activity and those in which they induce entrepreneurship we identify an important difference between the two activities which leads resource booms to bias gains in favour of rent seeking over entrepreneurship but we also show that this bias depends on the nature of the initial equilibrium

why do some resource abundant countries succeed while others do not on average resource abundant countries have experienced lower growth over the last four decades than their resource poor counterparts but the most interesting aspect of the paradox of plenty is not the average effect of natural resources but its variation for every nigeria or venezuela there is a norway or a botswana why do natural resources induce prosperity in some countries but stagnation in others this paper gives an overview of the dimensions along which resource abundant winners and losers differ in light of this it then discusses different theory models of the resource curse with a particular emphasis on recent developments

the effects of natural resources on urbanization concentration and living standards in africa summary this paper examines the effects of natural resource abundance on urbanization and living standards in africa our central hypothesis is that the exploitation of natural resources in a context of poor governance quality creates the conditions for rapid urbanization and urban concentration and ultimately lowers living standards in primal cities using a large panel of african countries our results show that an increase in the share of natural resources leads to a rapid increase in urbanization and urban concentration even after taking into account endogeneity issues or after using more exogenous measures of resource dependency the paper also establishes a negative association between the resource abundance the quality of life in large cities and the degree of informality via the increase in urbanization rate and urban concentration importantly we have established that these results mostly hold in the context of bad governance more specifically the resource led urbanization and concentration booms take place mainly in countries characterized by poor governance records furthermore poor governance quality is associated with a more detrimental effect of urbanization and urban concentration on the quality of life in african cities these results suggest that ongoing transformations experienced by these countries call for complementary policies to ensure a more balanced and efficient urbanization process

why develop open source software the role of non pecuniary benefits monetary rewards and open source licence type a review of the basic theory of optimal open source software contributions points to three key factors affecting the decision to contribute to the open source development process non pecuniary benefits future expected monetary returns and open source licence type this paper argues that existing large scale software developer surveys are inadequate for measuring the relative importance of these three factors previous econometric studies that collect their own unique datasets also fall short because they generally measure the importance of only one supply factor in isolation to fill the gap i specify an estimable dynamic programming model of joint labour supply and open source participation decisions that can provide empirical estimates of relative importance within a single unified framework of optimal decision making

natural resource abundance and human capital accumulation summary this paper studies the link between resource abundance and human capital accumulation it reviews the commonly used indicators of resource abundance and human capital accumulation the case for a form of resource curse in human capital accumulation is not robust to reasonable changes in these indicators in fact subsoil wealth and resource rents per capita are shown to be significantly correlated with improved indicators of human capital accumulation if mineral wealth is what authors have in mind when they refer to natural resource abundance then they should choose indicators that measure this concept as accurately as possible

is there a wage premium for volunteer oss engagement signalling learning and noise abstractvolunteer based open source production has become a significant new model for the organization of software development economics often pictures this phenomenon as a case of signalling individuals engage in the volunteer programming of open source software oss as a labour market signal resulting in a wage premium yet this explanation could so far not be empirically tested this article fills this gap by estimating an upper bound composite wage premium of voluntary oss contributions and by separating the potential signalling effect of oss engagement from other effects although some 70 of oss contributors believe that oss involvement benefits their careers we find no actual labour market premium for oss engagement the presence of other motives such as fun of play or altruism renders oss contributions too noisy to function as a signal

the dutch disease a disease after all many third world oil producers are encountering serious problems in building up a diversified export base while west european oil and gas producers netherlands united kingdom are suffering a decline in their traded goods manufacturing sector induced by real wage pressures it is becoming increasingly clear that high but temporary oil revenues may be somewhat ora mixed blessing the quip of the economist notwithstanding the mechanism behind this unbalance is clear enough part of the oil revenues is spent on non traded goods which leads to a real appreciation i e a rise in the relative price of non traded goods in terms of traded goods this in turn draws resources out of the non oil traded sector into the non traded goods producing sector corden and neary 1982 van wijnbergen 1980 one may say that this is an efficient response to the increase in income from oil production the united kingdom mexico egypt simply should move into oil derived industries and non traded goods and forget about their manufacturing sector until oil reserves are exhausted however many developing countries are hesitant to take this advice after all the post world war ii success stories in economic development involve without exception countries that promoted their traded goods sector aggressively moreover it is a well established stylised fact that technological progress is faster in the traded non sheltered sectors of an economy than in the non traded sector balassa 1964 is an early reference considering the hypothesis that technological progress rather than taking place exogenously with the passage of time is a function of accumulated experience the concern of countries like egypt mexico or indonesia is much easier to understand since solow 1957 and denison 1962 it is known that capital accumulation explain only a small part of economic growth if most of economic growth is caused by learning by doing induced technologica

oil governance and the mis allocation of talent in developing countries this paper sheds light on the relationship between oil rent and the allocation of talent toward rent seeking versus more productive activities conditional on the quality of institutions using a sample of 69 developing countries we demonstrate that oil resources orient university students toward specializations that provide better future access to rents when institutions are weak the results are robust to various specifications datasets on governance quality and estimation methods oil affects the demand for each profession through a technological effect indicating complementarity between oil and engineering manufacturing and construction however it also increases the size of the cake therefore when institutions are weak oil increases the incentive to opt for professions with better access to rents law business and the social sciences rather than careers in engineering creating a deviation from the optimal allocation between the two types of specialization

oil growth and health what does the cross country evidence really show we show that previous results from the body of literature on the resource curse have primarily been driven by the collapse in oil prices during the mid 1980s by exploiting cross country variations in the size of initial oil endowments and the timing of oil discoveries we find that there is a stable positive relationship between oil abundance and long run economic growth using dynamic panel data methods we also find that there is no evidence that higher oil rents hinder growth however to focus on material gain means that the welfare gain from oil is understated because oil rich countries benefit more by the reduction in infant mortality and the gain in longevity interestingly such oil led health improvements are more pronounced in non democratic countries where initial heath conditions were poor and oil wealth is concentrated among the ruling elites

the voracity effect abstract we analyze an economy that lacks a strong legal political institutional infrastructure and is populated by multiple powerful groups powerful groups dynamically interact via a fiscal process that effectively allows open access to the aggregate capital stock in equilibrium this leads to slow economic growth and a voracity effect by which a shock such as a terms of trade windfall perversely generates a more than proportionate increase in fiscal redistribution and reduces growth we also show that a dilution in the concentration of power leads to faster growth and a less procyclical response to shocks jel f43 o10 o23 o40

does oil corrupt evidence from a natural experiment in west africa abstract this paper explores the oil discovery announcements in sao tome and principe 1997 1999 to assess the role of natural resources in determining corruption for this purpose we use a natural experiment framework which contrasts sao tome and principe to cape verde a control west african country sharing the same colonial past and important recent economic and political shocks our measurement is based on tailored household surveys we conducted in both island countries the unique survey instrument was retrospective and used personal histories to elicit memories from the respondents we analyze changes in perceived corruption across a wide range of public services and allocations we find clearest increases on vote buying education namely in the allocation of scholarships and customs ranging from 31 to 40 of the subjective scale we interpret these findings as symptoms of increased competition for core state resources

corruption perceptions vs corruption reality abstract this paper examines the accuracy of corruption perceptions by comparing indonesian villagers reported perceptions about corruption in a road building project in their village with a more objective measure of missing expenditures in the project i find that villagers reported perceptions do contain real information and that villagers are sophisticated enough to distinguish between corruption in a particular road project and general corruption in the village the magnitude of the reported information however is small in part because officials hide corruption where it is hardest for villagers to detect i also find that there are biases in reported perceptions the findings illustrate the limitations of relying solely on corruption perceptions whether in designing anti corruption policies or in conducting empirical research on corruption

the colonial origins of comparative development an empirical investigation comment abstract acemoglu johnson and robinson s 2001 seminal article argues property rights institutions powerfully affect national income using estimated mortality rates of early european settlers t

natural resources education and economic development economic growth since 1965 has varied inversely with the share of natural capital in national wealth across countries four main channels of transmission from abundant natural resources to stunted economic development are discussed a the dutch disease b rent seeking c overconfidence and d neglect of education public expenditure on education relative to national income expected years of schooling for girls and gross secondary school enrolment are all shown to be inversely related to the share of natural capital in national wealth across countries natural capital appears to crowd out human capital thereby slowing down the pace of economic development

the narrow moving band the dutch disease and the competitive consequences of mrs thatcher notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies abstract this paper presents a model of trade in which comparative advantage instead of being determined by underlying attributes of countries evolves over time through learning by doing in this model arbitrary patterns of specialization once established tend to become entrenched over time the model sheds light on three widely held views that do not make sense in more conventional models first is the view that temporary protection of selected sectors can permanently alter the pattern of comparative advantage in the protecting country s favor second is the view that seemingly favorable developments such as the discovery of exportable natural resources may lead to a permanent loss of other sectors and reduce welfare in the long run third is the possibility that a temporary overvaluation of a currency due to tight money can lead to a permanent loss of competitiveness in some sectors

history lessons institutions factor endowments and paths of development in the new world the explanations offered for the contrasting records of long run growth and development among the societies of north and south america most often focus on institutions the traditional explanations for the sources of these differences in institutions typically highlight the significance of national heritage or religion we in contrast argue that a hemispheric perspective across the wide range of colonies established in the new world by the europeans suggests that although there were many influences factor endowments or initial conditions had profound and enduring effects on the long run paths of institutional and economic development followed by the respective economies

institutions and the resource curse countries rich in natural resources constitute both growth losers and growth winners we claim that the main reason for these diverging experiences is differences in the quality of institutions more natural resources push aggregate income down when institutions are grabber friendly while more resources raise income when institutions are producer friendly we test this theory building on sachs and warner s influential works on the resource curse our main hypothesis that institutions are decisive for the resource curse is confirmed our results contrast the claims of sachs and warner that institutions do not play a role

increasing returns and the genesis of american resource abundance the usa became the world s leading mineral producing nation between 1870 and 1910 a development paralleled by the rising resource intensity of american manufacturing this paper challenges the premise that resource abundance simply reflected the country s geological endowment of mineral deposits instead in the century following 1850 the usa exploited its natural resource potentials to a far greater extent than other countries and did so across virtually the entire range of industrial minerals the paper argues that natural resource abundance was an endogenous socially constructed condition that was not geologically preordained it examines the complex legal institutional technological and organizational adaptations that shaped the us supply responses to the expanding domestic and international industrial demands for minerals and mineral products it suggests that strong positive feedbacks even in the exploitation of depletable resources were responsible for the explosive growth of the american minerals economy

learning by doing and the dutch disease this paper develops a model of learning by doing and the dutch disease that extends the earlier literature in two ways first it is assumed that both the traded and the non traded sector can contribute to learning second it is assumed that there are learning spillovers between the sectors it is shown that within such a model a foreign exchange gift results in a real exchange rate depreciation in the long run due to a shift in the steady state relative productivity between the traded and the non traded sector in contrast to standard models of the dutch disease production and productivity in both sectors may go up or down the conditions for the different cases are worked out

job mobility and the market for lawyers this paper studies the life cycle career choices of law school graduates using unique data from the university of michigan law school the model assumes that these graduates act according to the optimal solution of a dynamic optimization problem in which they sequentially choose among five employment sectors the employment sectors are differentiated by pecuniary and nonpecuniary returns promotion and dismissal probabilities and the extent of transferability of human capital the estimation of the model reveals a self selection mechanism based on unobserved heterogeneity in abilities and expected future returns which plays a critical role in reproducing the sector specific nonmonotonic separation hazards observed in the data the underlying self selection mechanism also has implications for policy interventions in the market for lawyers such as loan forgiveness programs

governance and renewable energy investment in mena countries how does trade matter abstract the middle east and north africa mena countries have recently developed renewable energy re markets however their rate of investment in renewable energy remains small compared to other regions in the world despite their relatively abundant endowments particularly in wind and solar while the literature identifies some barriers to investment in renewable energy we assume that the investment of mena countries could be impeded by specific governance factors furthermore we consider recent literature showing that trade openness reduces the negative effects of weak governance in this paper we empirically investigate the link between governance openness and renewable energy investment in the mena region using panel data for 15 mena countries over the period 1996 2013 our results prove that high institutional quality is associated with re investment in mena countries in addition this relationship seems to be conditional on the trade regime our results are robust to several measures of renewable energy investment and governance as well as to an alternative econometric set up

more oil less democracy evidence from worldwide crude oil discoveries this article exploits variations in the timing and size of oil discoveries to identify the impact of oil wealth on democracy i find that discovering 100 billion barrels of oil approximately the initial endowment of iraq pushes a country s democracy level almost 20 percentage points below trend after three decades the estimated effect is larger for oilfields with higher quality oil and lower exploration and extraction costs however the estimates become less precise when oil abundance is measured by oil discovery per capita suggesting politicians may care about the level instead of the per capita value of oil wealth

kleptocracy and divide and rule a model of personal rule many developing countries have suffered under the personal rule of kleptocrats who implement highly inefe cient economic policies expropriate the wealth of their citizens and use the proceeds for their own glorie cation or consumption we argue that the success of kleptocrats rests in part on their ability to use a divide and rule strategy made possible by the weakness of institutions in these societies members of society need to cooperate in order to depose a kleptocrat yet such cooperation may be defused by imposing punitive rates of taxation on any citizen who proposes such a move and redistributing the benee ts to those who need to agree to it thus the collective action problem can be intensie ed by threats which remain off the equilibrium path in equilibrium all are exploited and no one challenges the kleptocrat kleptocratic policies are more likely when foreign aid and rents from natural resources provide rulers with substantial resources to buy off opponents when opposition groups are shortsighted when the average productivity in the economy is low and when there is greater inequality between producer groups because more productive groups are more dife cult to buy off jel o12 h00

migration as an antidote to rent seeking abstract we develop a new mechanism through which skilled migration may influence economic performance in the sending country if agents can choose between acting as rent seekers and engaging in productive activities and only productive skills are exportable a positive probability of migration to a more secure economy reduces the relative expected returns from rent seeking thus decreasing the proportion of skilled workers who opt for parasitic activities such an improvement in the allocation of talent may prevail over the loss of skilled workers due to outmigration however we show that this result is not robust to the introduction of endogenous protection if productive workers share their resources between accumulation of productive capital and investment in security prospective migration may induce a weaker protection against rent seeking which in turn might depress average income in the source economy

intellectual property the assessment in recent years there has been an increase in the commercialization of intellectual property ip via such mechanisms as patents licences copyrights and trade marks new institutions e g science parks as well as new organizational forms e g research joint ventures have emerged to facilitate the creation and commercialization of ip existing institutions most notably universities have become much more aggressive in protecting their ip and devising ways to generate additional revenue from their ip portfolios these trends have important policy implications which are addressed by the authors in this issue we summarize their contributions and provide some context for assessing these salient matters

coalition proof nash equilibria ii applications abstract in bernheim peleg and whinston coalition proof equilibria i concepts j econ theory 42 1987 1 12 we proposed the notion of coalition proof nash equilibrium and perfectly coalition proof nash equilibrium as solution concepts for strategic environments in which players can freely discuss their strategies but cannot make binding commitments this paper undertakes applications to several economic problems including the behavior of cournot oligopolists oligopolistic entry deterrence cooperation in finite horizon games and social choice rule implementation

mining away the preston curve summary i estimate the long term national health and education impacts of having a larger mining share in the economy by instrumenting the relative size of the mining sector with the natural geological variation in countries fossil fuel endowments i provide evidence suggestive of a causal relationship the findings suggest that countries with larger mining shares tend to have poorer health and education outcomes than countries with similar per capita incomes geographic characteristics and institutional quality doubling the mining share of an economy corresponds to on average the infant death rate being 20 higher life expectancy being 5 lower total years of education being 20 lower and 70 more people having no formal education divergences from the preston curve the concave relationship between cross country income and life expectancy that has long been of interest to economists demographers and epidemiologists are thus partly explained by the size of the mining sector within country evidence from indonesia paints a similar picture my results provide support for a growing body of evidence linking mining to poorer average living standards particularly vis a vis other types of income i also estimate the effects of national mining dependence on non mining income health and education investment and institutions

the elusive curse of oil abstract our goal is to show that contrary to the claims made in several recent papers the effect of a large endowment of oil and other mineral resources on long term economic growth of countries has been on balance positive moreover the claims of a negative effect of oil and mineral wealth on the countries institutions are called into question