regulatory policy and the location of bio pharmaceutical foreign direct investment in europe this paper examines the relationship between cross country differences in drug price regulation and the location of biopharmaceutical foreign direct investment fdi in europe simple theory predicts that price regulation in one country might affect total investment but not the location of that investment if sales are global nevertheless some manufacturers threaten that the introduction of price regulation in a country will motivate them to move their investments to other countries are such threats cheap talk or is there evidence that firms avoid price controlling countries when making fdi location choices we use data on 527 investments initiated in 27 european countries between 2002 and 2009 and find that investors are less likely to choose countries with price controls after controlling for other determinants of investment we also observe a relative decline in investment in countries that increased the stringency of regulatory regimes during our sample period the effect is restricted to non manufacturing investments and is most robust for those related to administrative functions

comparing approval procedures for new drugs we analyse how drug approval procedures influence the incentives of pharmaceutical firms to commercialise new drugs in the presence of international reference pricing since 1995 the european medicines agency ema coordinates a centralised approval procedure for specific new drugs in the eu with such a centralised procedure the ema grants simultaneous drug approvals for all eu countries alongside non centralised procedures coexist for approvals of other new drugs and approvals can be sequential we focus on the effects of the exogenous timing of drug approvals either simultaneous or sequential and we compare the effects of centralised versus non centralised procedures on the firms incentives to commercialise new drugs in different markets in a context of international reference pricing we show that a centralised procedure limits the number of countries where the firm commercialises new drugs compared to a non centralised procedure we also show in a simplified framework that countries are better off with non centralised procedures while pharmaceutical firms in theory prefer the drug to be approved everywhere as soon as possible as in an early centralised procedure this is in line with the stated objective of the ema to generate savings for the pharmaceutical firms

the relative importance of actual and potential competition empirical evidence from the pharmaceuticals market the relative importance of actual and potential competition empirical evidence from the pharmaceuticals market

authorized generic entry prior to patent expiry reassessing incentives for independent generic entry abstract originators seek to mitigate the loss of monopoly power by authorizing generic entry prior to patent expiry off patent competition may be adversely affected if authorized generic entry substantially lowers the attractiveness of subsequent generic entry this study assesses the impact of authorized generic entry on independent generic entry in recent cases of patent expiry in germany the results of a recursive bivariate probit regression accounting for the endogeneity of authorized generic entry show that authorized generic entry has no significant effect on the likelihood of generic entry business scope expansion and rent seeking motives drive authorized generic entry decisions

international effects of national regulations external reference pricing and price controls under external reference pricing erp the price that a government permits a firm to charge in its market depends upon the firm s prices in other countries in a two country home and foreign model where demand is asymmetric across countries we show that home s unilaterally optimal erp policy permits the home firm to engage in a threshold level of international price discrimination above which it is just willing to export if the firm faces a price control abroad or bargains over price with the foreign government an erp policy can even yield higher home welfare than a direct price control

i was the south sea bubble a random walk abstract though it is generally accepted that a random walk describes the pattern of successive price changes in the market a review of research evidence suggests that this is by no means a universal fact rather than being a general description of market movement a random walk appears adequate as a description of some markets and not of others and during some periods of time but not others in an attempt to understand some of the determinants of the degree of randomness serial correlations and the runs test were calculated for daily price changes in the stock of the south sea company during 1715 a period of financial uneventfulness and during 1720 the period of speculative mania known as the south sea bubble market movement was distinctly non random during 1720

sales growth of new pharmaceuticals across the globe the role of regulatory regimes prior marketing literature has overlooked the role of regulatory regimes in explaining international sales growth of new products this paper addresses this gap in the context of new pharmaceuticals 15 new molecules in 34 countries and sheds light on the effects of regulatory regimes on new drug sales across the globe based on a time varying coefficient model we find that differences in regulation substantially contribute to cross country variation in sales one of the regulatory constraints investigated i e manufacturer price controls has a positive effect on drug sales the other forms of regulation such as restrictions of physician prescription budgets and the prohibition of direct to consumer advertising dtca tend to hurt sales the effect of manufacturer price controls is similar for newly launched and mature drugs by contrast regulations on physician prescription budgets and dtca have a differential effect for newly launched and mature drugs whereas the former hurts mature drugs more the latter has a larger effect on newly launched drugs in addition to these regulatory effects we find that national culture economic wealth and lagged sales also affect drug sales our findings may be used as input by managers for international launch and marketing decisions they may also be used by public policy administrators to assess the role of regulatory regimes in pharmaceutical sales growth

mode of entry mode into a foreign market the case of u s mutual funds in canada abstract u s mutual fund companies offer funds in canada through two channels foreign direct investment or trade in advisement services the total value of u s controlled funds amounts to 18 of the canadian equity fund market this paper investigates how the fund level and firm level characteristics affect the channel used to enter the canadian market empirical results indicate that the funds offered through fdi are not especially successful in the u s market but are associated with dominant companies whereas the funds offered through trade in advisement services are highly successful in the u s market and are from companies with relatively few successful funds

cross national price differences for pharmaceuticals how large and why bilateral drug price and quantity indexes based on comprehensive data for seven countries us canada france germany italy japan and the uk refute the conventional wisdom that us drug prices are much higher than elsewhere for laspeyres us weighted indexes previous drug price comparisons are biased by unrepresentative samples and unweighted indexes quasi hedonic regression shows that cross national price differences reflect differences in product characteristics and in their implicit prices which reflect the regulatory regime strict price regulation systematically lowers prices for older molecules and globally diffused molecules generic competition lowers prices in less regulated regimes which also have more price elastic demand

contract and exit decisions in finisher hog production finisher hog production in north america has shifted toward larger units and contract format since 1990 exit among independent growers has been high we develop a model showing that growers with any of three efficiency attributes lower innate hazard of exit variable costs or contract adoption costs are more likely to contract produce more and expend more on business protection using 2004 agricultural resource management survey data a recursive bivariate probit model confirms that contracting producers are less likely to exit specialization increases the probability of contracting education nonfarm income and older production facilities are significant in increasing expected exit

generic drug industry dynamics both the economics literature and the business press suggest that a typical pattern for a new industry or what jovanovic and macdonald 1994 call an invention i s to have an initial phase in which a small number of firms each earn significant profits followed by a phase in which rapid entry of new firms leads to increased competition and dissipation of some of those profits often accompanied by a shakeout whereby only a few large firms remain especially if subsequent innovations increase the optimal scale although this pattern seems to characterize many industries the length of time during which early movers retain their profits how prices adjust during the entry process and the

violence instability and trade evidence from kenya s cut flower sector summary we examine the implications of the violence and instability following the 2007 kenyan elections and how it affected cut flower trade between kenya and the eu using the rotterdam demand model we find that the post election violence had a negative impact on eu imports from kenya equivalent to 33 million which is significant given the importance of flowers to kenya s economy results show that even a short period of violence can have an effect on trade since instability in an exporting country causes importers to source from other countries perceived as less risky persisting even when order is restored

price regulation and parallel imports of pharmaceuticals abstract this paper studies the effects of price regulation and parallel imports in the on patent pharmaceutical market in a theory model where the producer price is subject to bargaining between the brand name producer and a distributor we show that the effects of stricter price regulation crucially depend on whether the producer faces competition from parallel imports while parallel imports improve the bargaining position of the distributor price regulation counteracts this effect and may even be profitable for the producer we test the implications of our model on a unique dataset with information on sales and prices at both producer and retail level for 165 substances over 4 years 2004 2007 we show that stricter price regulation reduces competition from parallel imports and has no strictly negative effect on producer profits in the presence absence of parallel imports our results suggest that price regulation might improve static efficiency without being harmful for dynamic efficiency in the presence of parallel imports

risk perception in psychology and economics abstract the concept of rationality has been basic to most economic analysis its content has been successively refined over the generations as applied to the static world of certainty it has turned out to be a weak hypothesis not easily refuted and therefore not very useful as an explanation though not literally a tautology but recent decades have seen the development of stronger versions applied to a world in which time and uncertainty are real among its most important manifestations have been criteria for consistency in allocation over time the expected utility hypothesis of behavior under uncertainty and what may be termed the bayesian hypothesis for learning that is the consistent use of conditional probabilities for changing beliefs on the basis of new information these hypotheses have been used widely in offering explanations of empirically observed behavior though as not infrequently in economics the theoretical development has gone much further than the empirical implementation these hypotheses have also been used increasingly in normative analysis as a component of benefit cost studies therefore frequently referred to as benefit risk studies the value of reducing mortality rates from diseases for example has been studied by assuming that choice of occupations is made inter alia by comparing wage differences with mortality differences

is american health care uniquely inefficient evidence from prescription drugs abstract alan garber and jonathan skinner 2008 famously conjectured that the us health care system was uniquely inefficient relative to other countries we test this idea using cross country data on prescription drug sales newly linked with an arguably objective measure of relative therapeutic benefits or drug quality specifically we investigate how higher and lower quality drugs diffuse in the us relative to australia canada switzerland and the uk our tabulations suggest that lower quality drugs diffuse more in the us relative to high quality drugs compared to each of our four comparison countries consistent with garber and skinner s conjecture

static and dynamic effects of health policy evidence from the vaccine industry public policies designed to increase utilization of existing technologies may also affect incentives to develop new technologies this paper investigates this phenomenon by examining policies designed to increase usage of preexisting vaccines i find that these policies were associated with a 2 5 fold increase in clinical trials for new vaccines for several diseases the induced innovation is socially wasteful though small in magnitude in one case however the dynamic social welfare benefits from induced innovation exceed the policies static benefits from increasing vaccination with existing technology these findings underscore the importance of including technological progress in economic analysis of public policy

optimal pricing strategies for a cluster of goods own and cross price effects with correlated tastes contingent valuation methods are used to identify observed and unobserved preferences of goods and services we apply these methods in the context of multivariate probit analysis to compute willi

pharmaceutical price controls and entry strategies abstract this paper finds that the use of price controls has a statistically and quantitatively important effect on the extent and timing of the launch of new drugs firms headquartered in countries that regulate price reach fewer markets than those in countries without price controls companies avoid price controlled markets and are less likely to introduce products in additional markets after entering a price controlled country launches into low price european countries are further delayed following legalization of parallel imports the results suggest that price regulation in one country affects entry into other countries and may affect the strategies of domestic firms

gradual incorporation of information pharmaceutical stocks and the evolution of president clinton s health care reform abstract we examine the effect of the evolution of president clinton s health care reform proposal over january 1992 october 1993 on pharmaceutical stock prices we identify a 52 3 percent decline in market adjusted prices which we then associate with health care reform applying a new technique isotonic regression we find most of the decline occurred gradually much of the decline occurred as the clinton plan adopted strategies to contain health care costs including managed competition and implicit regulation indirect evidence suggests that the wealth lost by pharmaceutical companies may have been largely an anticipated transfer our results are relevant to understanding the likely effects of the clinton plan and more recent proposals many other policy changes are marked by gradual public revelation of information which may not be completely observable by a researcher our approach may uncover information about the anticipated effects of policies unavailable from a traditional event study

insecurity and the pattern of trade an empirical investigation corruption and imperfect contract enforcement dramatically reduce international trade this paper estimates the reduction using a structural model of import demand in which insecurity acts as a hidden tax on trade we find that inadequate institutions constrain trade as much as tariffs do we also find that omission of indices of institutional quality biases the estimates of typical gravity models obscuring a negative relationship between per capita income and the share of total expenditure devoted to traded goods finally we argue that cross country variation in the effectiveness of institutions and the consequent variation in the prices of traded goods offer a simple explanation for the stylized fact that high income capital abundant countries trade disproportionately with each other

pharmaceutical innovation and parallel trade abstract this paper proposes a north south model to study the interaction between price regulation policies and parallel trade with a particular focus on the pharmaceutical sector we show that under parallel trade r d investment can rise only when the south government takes into full account its impact both on investment and on the firm s decision to supply the regulated country this arises because of a complete withdrawal from price regulation when policy choices are endogenized indeed the south wants to achieve this level of full commitment when it is large in size when instead it is smaller in size the south chooses an intermediate form of commitment whereby it anticipates its effect only on local distribution and delivery but not on global r d investment as a response to these credible levels of price control commitments the north reacts by allowing parallel imports from the south

characteristics of demand for pharmaceutical products an examination of four cephalosporins we model demand for four cephalosporins and compute own and cross price elasticities between branded and generic versions of the four drugs we model demand as a multistage budgeting problem and we argue that such a model is appropriate to the multistage nature of the purchase of pharmaceutical products in particular the prescribing and dispensing stages we find quite high elasticities between generic substitutes and also significant elasticities between some therapeutic substitutes

strategic pricing of new pharmaceuticals this paper provides empirical evidence on the leading factors affecting the prices of new pharmaceuticals both at introduction and after 4 6 and 8 years most important is the extent of therapeutic advance embodied in a new product for drugs which represent important therapeutic gains launch prices can be two or three times those of existing drugs used for the same purposes while drugs that largely duplicate the actions of currently available products are typically priced at comparable levels in addition the number of branded substitutes has a substantial negative effect on launch prices which reflects the importance of competitive pressures duplicate products thereby play an important economic role in pharmaceutical markets

price controls in liberia abstractin 2009 the liberian government removed a wide reaching set of price controls compared with goods never subject to price ceilings goods whose prices were liberalized showed increased pri

patents and the global diffusion of new drugs analysis of the timing of launches of 642 new drugs in 76 countries during 1983 2002 shows that patent and price regulation regimes strongly affect how quickly new drugs become commercially available in different countries price regulation delays launch while longer and more extensive patent rights accelerate it health policy institutions and economic and demographic factors that make markets more profitable also speed up diffusion the estimated effects are generally robust to controlling for endogeneity of policy regimes with country fixed effects and instrumental variables the results highlight the important role of policy choices in driving the diffusion of new innovations

regulating innovation with uncertain quality information risk and access in medical devices we study the impact of regulating product entry and quality information requirements on an oligopoly equilibrium and consumer welfare product testing can reduce consumer uncertainty but also increase entry costs and delay entry using variation between eu and us medical device regulations we document patterns consistent with valuable learning from more stringent us requirements to derive welfare implications we pair the data with a model of supply demand and testing regulation us policy is indistinguishable from the policy that maximizes total surplus in our estimated model while the european union could benefit from more testing post market surveillance could further increase surplus

pricing profits and technological progress in the pharmaceutical industry the decades old debate over pharmaceutical industry prices profits and innovation has again intensified a number of events coalesced to refocus public interest on pharmaceuticals contributing to public concern were bureau of labor statistics price index increases for pharmaceuticals far outpacing those for the products of other industries another prominent characteristic of the pharmaceutical industry has been its extraordinarily high reported profitability this article examines the phenomena that precipitated the current pharmaceuticals debate their historical antecedents and the principal questions at issue in the author s considered judgment a pell mell march toward regulation of pharmaceutical industry pricing could seriously impair the industry s incentives for investment in new products

price regulation and relative delays in generic drug adoption abstract increasing the adoption of generic drugs has the potential to improve static efficiency in a health system without harming pharmaceutical innovation however very little is known about the timing of generic adoption and diffusion no prior study has empirically examined the differential launch times of generics across a comprehensive set of markets or more specifically the delays in country specific adoption of generics relative to the first country of generic adoption drawing on data containing significant country and product variation across a lengthy time period 1999 2008 we use duration analysis to examine relative delays across countries in the adoption of generic drugs our results suggest that price regulation has a significant effect on reducing the time to launch of generics with faster adoption in higher priced markets the latter result is dependent on the degree of competition and the expected market size

a model of homogenous input demand under price uncertainty this paper examines the empirical validity of a model of homogeneous input demand under price uncertainty in which firms trade off expected input cost against its variability risk in selecting the optimal input supplier mix using recent work in time series econometrics this model is applied to the japanese steam coal import market where five suppliers compete china the soviet union south africa the united states and australia copyright 1991 by american economic association

adjustment costs and import demand behavior evidence from canada and the united states abstract in this paper we examine whether adjustment costs are a significant source of the observed sluggish adjustment of canadian and us import demand we use a simple model of a utility maximizing domestic consumer under the assumption of integrated forcing variables to examine the importance of adjustment costs this formulation of the problem allows us to exploit the recently developed theory of cointegration to estimate the structural parameters of the model using a two step methodology moreover the formulation incorporates an element of forward looking behaviour into the decision process a feature that is important if one assumes adjustment costs are a significant source of persistence in import demand adjustment the empirical results from a euler equation imply that adjustment costs in canada and the united states are important

modeling the pattern of structural change in u s meat demand the hypothesis of structural change in u s meat demand is tested in a four meat almost ideal demand system with parameters following a gradual switching regression model the results support the notion that structural change partly explains the observed u s meat consumption patterns structural change is biased against beef neutral for pork in favor of chicken and fish and it does not affect estimated elasticities the estimated path of structural change implies a rapid transition to a new regime in the mid 1970s although a smooth path cannot be ruled out

strategic procurement openness and market structure abstract we examine strategic procurement behaviour by governments and its effect on market structure in sectors such as defence and pharmaceuticals where the government is the dominant consumer in a world economy with trade between producer countries and between producers and non producers we use a modified dixit stiglitz utility function with an independent taste for variety there is free entry and exit by firms but by anticipating their participation constraint governments can indirectly choose the number of domestic firms and their size through its choice of procurement price unlike the standard model with no independent taste for variety and no external sector of non producer countries there are incentives for subsidies openness impacts on industrial structure and procurement coordination between producer countries affects firm numbers

how much does violence tax trade abstract we investigate the empirical effect of violence as compared to other trade impediments on trade flows our analysis is based on a panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 1999 which brings together information from the rose data set the iterate data set for terrorist events and data sets of external and internal conflict we explore these data with traditional and theoretical gravity models we calculate that for a given country year the presence of terrorism together with internal and external conflict is equivalent to as much as a 30 tariff on trade this is larger than estimated tariff equivalent costs of border and language barriers and tariff equivalent reduction through generalized systems of preference and wto participation

compulsory licensing price controls and access to patented foreign products abstract we analyze how a price control and the threat of compulsory licensing cl affect consumer access in a developing country south to a patented foreign product in the model the southern government sets the level of the price control on a northern patent holder who chooses between entry and voluntary licensing vl while entry incurs a higher fixed cost licensed production is of lower quality if the patent holder does not work its patent locally the south is free to use cl the threat of cl ensures that consumers have access to a lower quality version of the patented good when the patent holder chooses not to work its patent locally improves the terms at which vl occurs can cause the patent holder to switch from vl to entry and can delay consumer access when cl replaces vl or entry we also show that a price control and cl are mutually reinforcing instruments

global value chains labor organization and private social standards lessons from east african cut flower industries summary this article examines the opportunities and challenges that private social standards pose for labor organizations it explores different labor responses to private social standards in east african cut flower industries the analysis incorporates the concept of labor agency in global value chain analysis and reveals how retailer driven chains offer more room for labor organizations to exercise their agency than the traditional cut flower value chains labor organizations have been able to influence social standard setting and implementation and to use standards to further labor representation at production sites however labor organizations ability to seriously challenge the prevailing governance structure of the cut flower value chain appears extremely limited

iii some causes and consequences of dependence and independence in the stock market abstract the fact that there are times when market movement is random and times when it is not is interpreted in terms of the hypothesis that the price of a stock is an aggregate opinion the resultant of the opinions and decisions of a community of investors price like any other opinion will be most vulnerable to social and other sources of influence during times of uncertainty an aggregate psychological state which can generate the kind of statistical dependence characteristic of non random walks ramifications of this hypothesis are explored in a variety of stock market behaviors such as the effect of tips the impact of runs on trading volume during rising and falling markets and the like

reference pricing competition and pharmaceutical expenditures theory and evidence from a natural experiment abstract we study the impact of regulation on competition between brand names and generics and pharmaceutical expenditures using a unique policy experiment in norway where reference pricing rp replaced price cap regulation in 2003 for a sub sample of off patent products first we construct a vertical differentiation model to analyze the impact of regulation on prices and market shares of brand names and generics then we exploit a detailed panel data set at product level covering several off patent molecules before and after the policy reform off patent drugs not subject to rp serve as our control group we find that rp significantly reduces both brand name and generic prices and results in significantly lower brand name market shares finally we show that rp has a strong negative effect on average molecule prices suggesting significant cost savings and that patients copayments decrease despite the extra surcharges under rp

generic entry price competition and market segmentation in the prescription drug market abstract this paper studies the effects of generic entry on post patent price competition for 18 prescription drugs recently exposed to competition an independent validating test of the generic competition paradox is conducted using a newly created data set each generic entrant is associated with an average 1 increase in the branded price the one way error component model accounts for intermolecular competition market segmentation and endogeneity of entry and finds branded prices increasing by 2 alternative definitions of entry suggest that price competition is confined to the generic market the unique payer type feature of the data offers empirical evidence supporting market segmentation

food stamp program participation and food insecurity an instrumental variables approach the relationship between food stamp program fsp participation and household food insecurity fi is investigated using data from the 1996 1997 national food stamp program survey endogeneity of fsp participation is accommodated with an instrumental variables approach in contrast to other findings reported in the literature results suggest participation in the fsp reduces the severity of fi sociodemographic variables play important roles in fsp participation and fi underreporting of fsp participation and limited observations of food insecure households in previous studies may have also been factors copyright 2008 oxford university press

does regulation drive out competition in pharmaceutical markets abstract most countries regulate pharmaceutical prices either directly or indirectly on the assumption that competition is at best weak in this industry this paper tests the hypothesis that regulation of manufacturer prices and retail pharmacy margins undermines price competition we use data from seven countries for 1992 to examine price competition between generic competitors different manufacturers of the same compound and therapeutic substitutes similar compounds under different regulatory regimes we find that price competition between generic competitors is significant in unregulated or less regulated markets united states united kingdom canada and germany but that regulation undermines generic competition in strict regulatory systems france italy and japan regulation of retail pharmacy further constrains competition in france germany and italy regulation thus undermines the potential for significant savings on off patent drugs which account for a large and growing share of drug

collateral damage trade disruption and the economic impact of war abstract conventional wisdom in economic history suggests that conflict between countries can be enormously disruptive of economic activity especially international trade we study the effects of war on bilateral trade with available data extending back to 1870 using the gravity model we estimate the contemporaneous and lagged effects of wars on the trade of belligerent nations and neutrals controlling for other determinants of trade as well as the possible effects of reverse causality we find large and persistent impacts of wars on trade national income and global economic welfare we also conduct a general equilibrium comparative statics exercise that indicates costs associated with lost trade might be at least as large as the conventionally measured direct costs of war such as lost human capital as illustrated by case studies of world wars i and ii

estimation of limited dependent variable models with dummy endogenous regressors applied economists have long struggled with the question of how to accommodate binary endogenous regressors in models with binary and nonnegative outcomes i argue here that much of the difculty with limited dependent variables comes from a focus on structural parameters such as index coefcients instead of causal effects once the object of estimation is taken to be the causal effect of treatment several simple strategies are available these include conventional two stage least squares multiplicative models for conditional means linear approximation of nonlinear causal models models for distribution effects and quantile regression with an endogenous binary regressor the estimation strategies discussed in the article are illustrated by using multiple births to estimate the effect of childbearing on employment status and hours of work

compulsory licensing and patent protection a north south perspective in a stylized model involving a developing country called south and a foreign patent holder we analyze whether and how the incidence and social value of compulsory licensing cl depends upon the south s patent protection policy if south is free to deny patent protection cl fails to arise in equilibrium and the option to use it makes both parties worse off if south is obligated to offer patent protection cl can occur and even yield a pareto improvement the ability to control price increases the south s incentive for patent protection as well as the likelihood of cl this article is protected by copyright all rights reserved

ii random and non random walks on the new york stock exchange abstract daily price changes of a variety of individual stocks and of stocks indices on the new york stock exchange are studied for indication of randomness between 1957 and 1979 from 1957 to the beginning of 1966 this market moved randomly from 1966 to 1979 it did not

alfred marshall lecture intellectual property rights protection in developing countries the case of pharmaceuticals patent enforcement in developing countries generates considerable controversy especially when patents involve potentially life saving drugs this paper argues that common concerns regarding the effects of patents on prices and on research incentives of pharmaceutical multinationals are misplaced rather the most significant effects are likely to concern access to patented drugs in poor countries because prices in developing countries are much lower than in the developed world multinationals may choose to enter such markets with a delay or not at all implying a complete loss of access to patented drugs in developing countries even when multinationals enter countries like india their marketing and distribution networks are not currently built out leading to limited access within the country such considerations may provide a justification for policies targeting access in the short and medium run such as compulsory licensing

price competition in pharmaceuticals the case of anti infectives a fundamental question in industrial organization regards the relationship between price and the number of sellers this relationship has been particularly important in the pharmaceutical industry where legislative changes were specifically designed to foster competition previous research on the pharmaceutical industry has shown generic entry has a mixed impact generic prices fall rapidly with generic entry whereas branded prices tend to increase or decrease only slightly using more complete data focused on one segment of the pharmaceutical industry anti infectives we find that the relationship between pharmaceutical prices and the number of sellers is more like that found in other industries jel l11 l65 d4

on the calculation of marginal effects in the bivariate probit model abstract we examine the effects of marginal changes in continuous variables on the joint conditional and marginal probabilities involved in the bivariate probit model and contrast them with the univariate probit case we provide an empirical application using canadian data

the determinants of international patenting for nine agricultural biotechnology firms this paper examines international patent application decisions of nine agricultural biotechnology firms from 1990 2000 in australia brazil canada china the european patent office japan and south africa the data reveal a low frequency of international applications despite an initial united states application indicating very low values for patents abroad the results indicate that invention quality plays an important role in firms decisions to patent abroad and that a single international application is a good predictor of multiple international applications further significant country fixed effects suggest wide differences in business climates and patent enforcement among countries

non stationarity and the import demand for virgin olive oil in the european union the aim of this study is to analyse the importation of virgin olive oil to european union countries paying special attention to the spanish export contribution the method used is based on the estimation of an imports demand system the novelty of the paper lies not in the modelling approach but in the explicit consideration of the univariate characteristics of series that is included in the analysis since prices are non stationary cointegration among them has been tested results indicate that they are cointegrated and that homogeneity holds as a result relative prices are included in the imports demand system structural change is also considered so as to account for the entrance of both spain and greece into the eu during the period studied results demonstrate the leadership of spain within the eu virgin olive oil market as well as the increasing competitiveness of greek oil

pharmaceuticals in u s health care determinants of quantity and price the u s pharmaceutical industry has again become the focus of considerable controversy in understanding the economics underlying this industry distinctions between short medium and long run costs are critical as is that between economic and accounting costs consumers heterogeneous valuations create strong incentives for non uniform pricing and targeted marketing the conflict between static efficiency price new drugs low near short run marginal cost and dynamic efficiency price new drugs high maintain incentives for innovation is deep and enduring this trade off is becoming more severe as the relative costs of bringing new drugs to market have increased sharply

a gendered value chain approach to codes of conduct in african horticulture codes of conduct covering the employment conditions of southern producers exporting to european markets mushroomed throughout the 1990s especially in the horticulture sector linking uk and european supermarkets with export firms in africa the majority of employment in this sector is informal a significant proportion of which is female this paper explores the gender sensitivity of codes currently applied in the african export horticulture sector from an analytical perspective that combines global value chain and gendered economy approaches through an analysis of these two approaches it develops a gender pyramid which provides a framework for mapping and assessing the gender content of codes of conduct the pyramid is applied to codes that cover employment conditions in three commodity groups and countries exporting to european markets south african fruit kenyan flowers and zambian vegetables and flowers it concludes that the gender sensitivity of codes needs to be greatly enhanced if they are to adequately address employment conditions relevant to informal and especially women workers

the macroeconomic consequences of terrorism abstract we perform an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic consequences of international terrorism and interactions with alternative forms of collective violence our analysis is based on a rich unbalanced panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 2000 which brings together information from the penn world table data set the iterate data set for terrorist events and data sets of external and internal conflict we explore these data with cross sectional and panel growth regression analysis and a structural var model we find that on average the incidence of terrorism may have an economically significant negative effect on growth albeit one that is considerably smaller and less persistent than that associated with either external wars or internal conflict as well terrorism is associated with a redirection of economic activity away from investment spending and towards government spending however our investigation also suggests important differences both regarding the incidence and the economic consequences of terrorism among different sets of countries in oecd economies in particular terrorist incidents are considerably more frequent than in other nations but the negative influence of these incidents on growth is smaller

differential demand systems a further look at barten s synthesis barten s synthetic model is attractive to applied researchers since it is useful for testing the adequacy of the competing functional forms of differential demand systems including the popular rotterdam and almost ideal demand systems this article shows that the synthetic model is not a mere artificial composite of the known differential demand systems as it has been considered but rather viewed as a model in its own right it is demonstrated that at the individual consumer level barten s model has the same marginal budget shares as generated by specific forms of engel curves formulated by the box cox transformation

late stage pharmaceutical r d and pricing policies under two stage regulation 2016 elsevier b v we present a model combining the two regulatory stages relevant to the approval of a new health technology the authorisation of its commercialisation and the insurer s decision about whether to reimburse its cost we show that the degree of uncertainty concerning the true value of the insurer s maximum willingness to pay for a unit increase in effectiveness has a non monotonic impact on the optimal price of the innovation the firm s expected profit and the optimal sample size of the clinical trial a key result is that there exists a range of values of the uncertainty parameter over which a reduction in uncertainty benefits the firm the insurer and patients we consider how different policy parameters may be used as incentive mechanisms and the incentives to invest in r d for marginal projects such as those targeting rare diseases the model is calibrated using data on a new treatment for cystic fibrosis

finishing high school and starting college do catholic schools make a difference in this paper we consider two measures of the relative effectiveness of public and catholic schools finishing high school and starting college these measures are potentially more important indicators of school quality than standardized test scores in light of the economic consequences of obtaining more education single equation estimates suggest that for the typical student attending a catholic high school raises the probability of finishing high school or entering a four year college by thirteen percentage points in bivariate probit models we find almost no evidence that our single equation estimates are subject to selection bias

marginal effects of a bivariate binary choice model this paper discusses the copula based approach of a bivariate binary choice model we derive the marginal effects of explanatory variables on an outcome of interest both direct and indirect in the model we also show that the signs of the marginal effects are determined by the signs of the coefficient parameters a real data application is provided

the role of firm characteristics in pharmaceutical product launches this paper examines the determinants of new pharmaceutical launches since 1980 in the g7 nations using discrete time hazard models despite the obvious incentive to amortize the large sunk costs of drug development over many markets entry occurs in only 4 of the opportunities the results indicate that firm characteristics such as domestic status and experience in the local market are important in explaining product launches in addition to market characteristics also the interaction between the innovating firm and target country is a critical component of profitability new drugs are 1 5 times more likely to be launched in markets that share a border or a language of a drug company s country of headquarters even for multinational firms the effect of competition depends on the characteristics of both the potential entrant and the incumbents domestic entrants prefer to compete with domestic incumbents although this is an industry with the potential for ubiquitous licensing and low transportation costs the specific match quality between the innovating firm and market conditions remains an important determinant of entry

the consumer welfare implications of governmental policies and firm strategy in markets for medicines this paper empirically examines the consumer welfare implications of changes in government policies related to patent protection and compulsory licensing in the indian market for oral anti diabetic oad medicines in contrast to previous studies on the impact of pharmaceutical patents in india we observe and estimate the welfare effects accruing from differential pricing and voluntary licensing strategies of patent holding innovator firms three novel molecules belonging to the dipeptidyl peptidase 4 dpp 4 inhibitor class of oads have been launched in india by the patent holders at lower prices than those prevailing in the developed countries using aggregate market transaction data we structurally estimate demand and supply and use the parameter estimates in our model to simulate consumer welfare under various counterfactual scenarios our results suggest that the introduction of dpp 4 inhibitors generated a consumer surplus gain of around 7 6 cents per day for a typical dpp 4 inhibitor user under the existing differential pricing and voluntary licensing strategies if the innovators decide to price at developed country levels this surplus is eliminated almost entirely the issuance of compulsory licensing does not always improve consumer welfare because if innovators defer or delay the introduction of new drugs in response the loss in consumer welfare could be substantial

the political economy of the pharmaceutical industry e conomicsis a practical science since its inception as an independent discipline it has probed the major policy issues of the day the topics that aroused the interests of its practitioners have generally been those that presented government officials with critical choices the modern literature on the economics of the pharmaceutical industry is no exception this body of material originated with the investigations of the kefauver committee in late 1959 public interest was aroused by the spectacle of confrontation between committee and industry the record made by this committee and its successors grew to tens of thousands of pages as claims and counterclaims were offered regarding industry conduct and performance the primary line of attack concerned pharmaceutical prices and profits the committee demonstrated that prices generally exceeded direct costs of manufacturing for 22 major pharmaceutical firms in 1958 costs of goods sold were merely 32 percent of total sales u s senate report 1961 p 31 the committee argued that this fact alone demonstrated the presence of monopoly power while the substantial difference between revenues and production costs permitted high expenditures on research and development it also paid for even higher selling outlays moreover reported rates of return after taxes during this period on the order of 21 to 22 percent exceeded twice the average for all manufacturing the industry replied that on the contrary prices were low relative to the value afforded consumers and high returns on successful products were required to balance the losses from the large numbers of unsuccessful ones the relevant concept of marginal costs according to the industry position must include the costs of developing and marketing new products and therefore prices were not excessive at all although it admitted earning substantial profits the industry argued that without these returns research outlays would be limited and the number of new drugs reduced the committee countered that little of social value arose from industry research molecules were manipulated and the new drugs that resulted were therapeutically similar to those already on the market indeed it suggested that much