housing policy reform a constructive critique this paper critically evaluates reforms which have been proposed to counter the effects of the growing imbalance between direct and indirect assistance for housing it proposes a radical restructuring of assistance based on a form of support which enables the shelter and asset components of housing to be separated and assistance to be directed solely towards the former the policy proposal consists of several essential components these are a housing cost insurance scheme providing a housing allowance financed by the taxation of housing income the provision of shared equity arrangements and the introduction of housing bonds

financial development and the occurrence of banking crises abstract we perform an in depth analysis of the effect of different dimensions of financial development on the occurrence of banking crises horse race estimations carried out on a large dataset of 113 banking crises in 112 countries reveal that the growth of m3 gdp and the level of banks credits deposits increase the occurrence of banking crises while the growth and sometimes the volatility of the ratio of banks assets to the sum of banks and the central bank s assets decrease it in addition we do not find a significant effect of banks credits gdp finally we unveil heterogeneities related to nonlinearities in the effect of financial development the time span for the pre crisis dynamics of financial development and the level of economic development our results suggest that only some dimensions of financial development are significantly associated with the occurrence of banking crises

money market pressure and the determinants of banking crises this article develops an index of money market pressure to identify banking crises we define banking crises as periods in which there is excessive demand for liquidity in the money market we begin with the theoretical foundation of this new method with the newly defined crisis episodes we examine the determinants of banking crises using data complied from 47 countries we find that slowdown of real gdp lower real interest rates extremely high inflation large fiscal deficits and over valued exchange rates tend to precede banking crises the effects of monetary base growth on the probability of banking crises are negligible

explaining bank distress in eastern european transition economies abstract this paper considers the joint role of macroeconomic structural and bank specific factors in explaining the occurrence of banking problems in the nineteen eastern european transition countries over the last decade with data at the individual bank level we show using a discrete time survival model that all three factors interact in their impact and have a rich dynamic profile which underlines the highly volatile cycles challenging the stability of banks in this region a fragile funding basis accompanied by high exposure to market risk in an environment of reforms and macroeconomic disturbances is the typical precursor of bank distress

bank regulation property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in oecd countries abstract early warning systems ews for banking crises generally omit bank capital bank liquidity and property prices most work on ews has been for global samples dominated by emerging market crises where time series data on bank capital adequacy and property prices are typically absent we estimate logit crisis models for oecd countries finding strong effects from capital adequacy and liquidity ratios as well as property prices and can exclude traditional variables higher capital adequacy and liquidity ratios have a marked effect on the crisis probabilities implying long run benefits to offset some of the costs that such regulations may impose

leading indicators of crisis incidence evidence from developed countries abstract we examine which indicators are most useful in explaining the cost of economic crises in eu and oecd countries between 1970 and 2010 to define the dependent variable we combine a measure of costs to the economy which consists of the output and employment loss and the fiscal deficit with a database of crisis occurrence designed specifically for this task we take into account model uncertainty in two steps first for each potential leading indicator we select the relevant prediction horizon by using panel vector autoregression second we identify the most useful leading indicators with bayesian model averaging our results suggest that domestic housing prices share prices and credit growth and some global variables such as private credit constitute important sources of risk

a cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises abstract panel data framework has often been used to build early warning systems for financial crises this paper questions the implicit assumption that crises are homogenously caused by identical factors it suggests a preliminary step aiming at forming optimal country clusters

early warning systems and systemic banking crises in low income countries a multinomial logit approach abstract this paper estimates an early warning system ews for predicting systemic banking crises in a sample of low income countries in sub saharan africa since the average duration of crises in this sample of countries is longer than one year the predictive performance of standard binomial logit models is likely to be hampered by the so called crisis duration bias the bias arises from the decision to either treat crisis years after the onset of a crisis as non crisis years or remove them altogether from the model to overcome this potential drawback we propose a multinomial logit approach which is shown to improve the predictive power of our ews compared to the binomial logit model our results suggest that crisis events in low income countries are associated with low economic growth drying up of banking system liquidity and widening of foreign exchange net open positions

does deposit insurance increase banking system stability an empirical investigation based on evidence of 61 countries in 1980 97 the authors find that explicit deposit insurance tends to be detrimental to bank stability the more so where bank interest rates are deregulated and the institutional environment is weak the adverse impact of deposit insurance on bank stability tends to be stronger the more extensive is the coverage offered to depositors and where the scheme is funded and run by the government rather than the private sector

predicting banking crises with artificial neural networks the role of nonlinearity and heterogeneity studies of the early warning systems ewss for banking crises usually rely on linear classifiers estimated with international datasets i construct an ews based on an artificial neural network ann model and i also account for regional heterogeneity in order to improve the generalization ability of ews models all of the banking crises in my test set are then predictable at a 24 month horizon using information from earlier crises for some countries estimation with a regional dataset significantly improves the predictions the ann outperforms the usual logit regression assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve

socio tenurial polarization in the united kingdom 1953 83 the income evidence family expenditure survey data show a widening gap between the incomes of households in different tenures during the period 1953 to 1983 in particular a major gap has opened up between the two major tenures as the median income of owner occupied households relative to the national average has risen whereas that for local authority tenants has fallen sharply recent years have seen an acceleration of these trends and the local authority sector is now increasingly characterised by those on low incomes

monitoring banking sector fragility a multivariate logit approach this article explores how a multivariate logit model of the probability of a banking crisis can be used to monitor banking sector fragility the proposed approach relies on readily available data and the fragility assessment has a clear interpretation based on in sample statistics the model has better in sample performance than currently available alternatives and the monitoring system can be tailored to fit the preferences of decision makers regarding type i and type ii errors the framework can be useful as a preliminary screen to economize on precautionary costs

the changing tenant profile of dutch social rented housing this article deals with the changes in the tenant profile of the social rented stock in the netherlands it is inspired by the question whether the sector may be subject to a residualisation trend the wider importance of such a phenomenon is that of the social marginalisation of the people concerned in general moreover if the position of the social rented stock can be shown to be deteriorating it would also illustrate a tendency to social polarisation in the redefined welfare state social and income polarisation in western societies has been extensively investigated but so far polarisation tendencies in housing have largely been ignored this article seeks to show that this omission should be rectified because changes in tenant profiles reveal wider developments it also aims to uncover the impact of policy in this respect the analysis of the changing position of the social rented sector during the period leading up to and following the housing policy reform of 1989 constitutes the core of the pap

commodity prices and bank lending we analyze the transmission of changes in commodity prices to bank lending in a large sample of developing countries a bank level analysis shows that a fall in commodity net export prices is associated with a reduction of bank lending particularly for commodity exporters and during episodes of terms of trade decline we complement this analysis with loan level data from a credit register which allows us to identify the effect of a commodity price shock on the supply of credit controlling for unobserved factors that could drive borrowers credit demand results show that banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit the changes in commodity prices to lending more aggressively jel f30 f34 g21 q02

an early warning system for predicting systemic banking crises in the eurozone a logit regression approach abstract eurosystem macroprudential policies require shared action between national authorities and the european central bank ecb this has created the need for a common basis for macroprudential analysis and as result the macroprudential database mpdb was created by the ecb and the european systemic risk board esrb in 2015 in order to support the central bank s functions and esrb s needs this paper examines a multivariate binary logit early warning model ewm for systemic banking crises with the aim to evaluate the predictive validity of the risk indicators included in the mpdb as well as further variables not employed in previous relevant studies the main finding is that most of the risk indicators employed from mpdb are important for forecasting from 4 to 1 years before the onset of a systemic banking crisis specific banking variables that capture industry concentration assets funding and liquidity are more important on average than macroeconomic variables important financial stress indicators such as clifs and sovciss and economic expectations are also significant the model is robust to various specifications and has a better performance when post crisis observations are not included

inequality and housing this paper seeks to provide a measure of housing inequality across the entire household population rateable values are used as an informed assessment of the flow of housing services yeilded by a p

social segregation housing tenure and social change in dutch cities in the late 1980s contemporary debates about social polarisation and divided cities emphasise common influences on social and economic change in cities the development of a global economy and of global influences on both market systems and on public policy regimes encourages an expectation that there is a convergence in processes and policies affecting cities and a convergence in outcomes in terms of increasingly similar patterns of polarisation and division this paper considers data from britain and the netherlands relating to changes in the housing sector and to social segregation and indicates that emerging patterns are very different socio tenurial polarisation and social segregation are not as marked in the netherlands as in britain and are not changing as fast the discussion arising from these data suggests that concern with globalisation and common influences on change should be balanced with a recognition of the importance of other factors in determining the pattern and pace of change in cities within this it is important to recognise not just differences in housing finance and policy but the degree of social and income inequality and the wider functioning of the welfare state

towards a new early warning system of financial crises abstract this paper develops a new early warning system ews model based on a multinomial logit model for predicting financial crises it is shown that commonly used ews approaches which use binomial discrete dependent variable models are subject to what we call a post crisis bias this bias arises when no distinction is made between tranquil periods when economic fundamentals are largely sound and sustainable and crisis post crisis periods when economic variables go through an adjustment process before reaching a more sustainable level or growth path we show that applying a multinomial logit model which allows distinguishing between more than two states is a valid way of solving this problem and constitutes a substantial improvement in the ability to forecast financial crises the empirical results reveal that for a set of 20 open emerging markets for the period 1993 2001 the model would have correctly predicted a large majority of crises in emerging markets

beyond moulin mechanisms abstract the only known general technique for designing truthful and approximately budget balanced cost sharing mechanisms with good efficiency or computational complexity properties is due to moulin 1999 incremental cost sharing characterization by coalition strategy proofness soc choice welfare 16 2 279 320 for many fundamental cost sharing applications however moulin mechanisms provably suffer from poor budget balance poor economic efficiency or both we propose acyclic mechanisms a new framework for designing truthful and approximately budget balanced cost sharing mechanisms acyclic mechanisms strictly generalize moulin mechanisms and offer three important advantages first it is easier to design acyclic mechanisms than moulin mechanisms many classical primal dual algorithms naturally induce a non moulin acyclic mechanism with good performance guarantees second for important classes of cost sharing problems acyclic mechanisms have exponentially better budget balance and economic efficiency than moulin mechanisms finally while moulin mechanisms have found application primarily in binary demand games we extend acyclic mechanisms to general demand games a multi parameter setting in which each bidder can be allocated one of several levels of service