a simple framework for international monetary policy analysis abstract we study the international monetary policy design problem within an optimizing two country sticky price model where each country faces a short run tradeoff between output and inflation the model is sufficiently tractable to solve analytically we find that in the nash equilibrium the policy problem for each central bank is isomorphic to the one it would face if it were a closed economy gains from cooperation arise however that stem from the impact of foreign economic activity on the domestic marginal cost of production while under nash central banks need only adjust the interest rate in response to domestic inflation under cooperation they should respond to foreign inflation as well in either scenario flexible exchange rates are desirable

monetary policy in a dual currency environment we develop a small open economy general equilibrium model with sticky prices and partial dollarization a situation where both domestic and foreign currencies coexist we derive a tractable representation of the model in terms of domestic inflation and the output gap in which a trade off which depends on the degree of dollarization arises endogenously due to the presence of foreign interest rate shocks we use this framework to show analytically how higher degrees of dollarization induce larger volatilities of the output gap and inflation thus hampering a central bank s effectiveness to stabilize the economy our impulse response functions show that the transmission of such shocks has a positive negative effect on inflation and negative positive effect on the output gap when money aggregates and consumption are complements substitutes

fixed costs and long lived investments abstract fixed costs models are difficult to analyze because they feature non degenerate time varying distributions of capital across firms if investments are sufficiently long lived however then the cross sectional distribution of capital holdings has virtually no bearing on the equilibrium and the aggregate behavior of fixed cost models is essentially identical to neoclassical models the findings are due to a near infinite elasticity of investment timing for long lived investments a feature shared by fixed cost models and neoclassical models irrelevance results found in numerical studies of fixed cost models are not parametric special cases but instead are fundamental properties of models with long lived investment goods

determinacy and learnability of monetary policy rules in small open economies this paper evaluates under which conditions different taylor type rules lead to determinacy and expectational stability e stability of rational expectations equilibrium in a simple new keynesian small open economy model developed by gali and monacelli 2005 in particular we extend the bullard and mitra 2002 results of determinacy and e stability in a closed economy to this small open economy framework our results highlight an important link between the taylor principle and both determinacy and learnability of equilibrium in small open economies more importantly the degree of openness coupled with the nature of the policy rule adopted by the monetary authorities might change this link in important ways a key finding is that contrary to bullard and mitra expectations based rules that involve the cpi and or the nominal exchange rate limit the region of e stability and the taylor principle does not guarantee e stability we also show that some forms of managed exchange rate rules can help to alleviate problems of both indeterminacy and expectational instability yet these rules might not be desirable since they promote greater volatility in the economy

the objective demand curve in general equilibrium with price makers objective demand curves in general equilibrium with explicitly modeled price makers have been defined so far in a number of specific cases this paper gives a general definition of such an objective demand curve the associated general equilibrium concept is defined and sufficient existence conditions are given copyright 1987 by royal economic society

general equilibrium theory with imperfect competition abstract this survey is organized as follows i introduction ii the main issues iii negishi s model iv objective demand in the cournot nash framework v objective demand in the bertrand nash framework vi the assumption of quasi concavity of the profit functions vii compromises between the conjectural and the objective approach viii insights into the notion of perfect competition ix conclusion

on monopolistic competition and involuntary unemployment in a simple temporary general equilibrium model it is shown that if the number of firms is small imperfect price competition in the markets for goods may be responsible for the existence of unemployment at any given positive wage in our examples involving two firms facing their true demand curves total monopolistic labor demand remains bounded as the wage rate goes to zero and unemployment prevails for a sufficiently large inelastic labor supply in the competitive case total labor demand would go to infinity and intersect labor supply at a positive wage

analytical approximations in models of hysteresis decisions made under ongoing uncertainty and costly reversibility entail a range of the state variable where inaction is optimal which in turn produces hysteresis permanent effects of temporary shifts the range is usually defined by non linear equations that need numerical solutions in this paper a technique of analytical approximations is developed and applied to two models menu costs and investment the resulting explicit solutions help clarify why hysteresis is important even for small irreversibility in the menu cost model hysteresis is two orders of magnitude larger than under the akerlof yellen or mankiw assumptions when decisions that are costly to reverse are made under conditions of ongoing uncertainty the optimum policy usually entails a range of inertia the action should be taken only when the value of the underlying state variable becomes especially favourable and reversed only when it becomes especially unfavourable there is an intermediate range over which inaction is optimal this in turn gives rise to hysteresis starting from a value in the range of inertia if the state variable crosses the action trigger point and then returns to its original level the action will be taken but not reversed thus a temporary change will leave a permanent effect numerical solutions for models of irreversible investment show that the range of inaction is remarkably large even when the cost of reversal is small see brennan and schwartz 1985 constantinides 1986 and dixit 1989a b for examples of this unfortunately the equations tlhat determine the optimum policy are highly non linear they do not have analytical solutions therefore we lack a clearer and more general understanding of why hysteresis is numerically so important in this paper i derive analytical approximations for the solutions of more general problems of this kind when the costs of change are small the idea that small costs of change induce large amounts of inertia has been popularized in the model of akerlof and yellen 1985 mankiw 1985 and others in these models second order small costs of making price changes yield price stickiness in response to first order changes in the money supply this is a simple application of the envelope theorem but these models are static and their application to a dynamic reality must assume either permanent shocks or static expectations when there is ongoing uncertainty which is rationally expected by the decision maker the option value of the status quo enlarges the zone where inaction is optimal adding these features to the mankiw akerlof yellen may model i show that fourth order small costs of change generate first order inertia

stabilization policy and the costs of dollarization this paper compares the welfare costs of business cycles in a dollarized economy to those associated with several alternative monetary regimes belonging to three broad families interest rate feedback rules inflation targeting and money growth rate rules the analysis is conducted within an optimizing model of a small open economy with sticky prices the model is calibrated to the mexican economy and is driven by 3external shocks terms of trade world interest rate and import price inflation we show econometrically that these shocks explain more than 75 of the observed forecasting error variance of mexican output and the mexican real exchange rate at 4 to 16 quarter horizons the welfare comparisons suggest that dollarization is the least successful of the monetary policy rules considered agents are willing to give up more than 2 of their non stochastic steady state consumption to see a policy other than dollarization implemented

monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy we lay out a small open economy version of the calvo sticky price model and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap we use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rulebased policy regimes for the small open economy domestic inflation and cpi based taylor rules and an exchange rate peg we show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail we also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules

a search theoretic approach to monetary economics the essential function of money is its role as a medium of exchange the authors formalize this idea using a search theoretic equilibrium model of the exchange process that captures the double coincidence of wants problem with pure barter one advantage of the framework described here is that it is very tractable the authors also show that the model can be used to addre ss some substantive issues in monetary economics including the potenti al welfare enhancing role of money the interaction between specializat ion and monetary exchange and the possibility of equilibria with multip le fiat currencies copyright 1993 by american economic association

partial adjustment without apology econometric partial adjustment models perform relatively well at the aggregate level however many kinds of microeconomic behavior involve discrete and occasional choices analyzing the classic employment adjustment problem we show how a generalized partial adjustment model tractably accommodates both observations by aggregating the actions of heterogeneous producers facing fixed adjustment costs aggregate disturbances cause changes in establishment level target employment and in the measure of establishments actively adjusting to their target whereas aggregate responses exhibit partial adjustment our framework also can be applied in general equilibrium settings with persistent idiosyncratic shocks without forfeiting the convenient use of linear solution methods

cross sectional efficiency and labour hoarding in a matching model of unemployment we study positive and normative aspects of steady state equilibrium in a market where firms of endogenous size experience idiosyncratic shocks and undergo a costly search process to hire their workers the stylized model we propose highlights interactions between job security provisions and sectoral shocks in determining the natural rate of unemployment the allocation of labour and the extent of labour hoarding and rationalizes cross sectional asymmetries of gross employment flows at the firm level in our model where productivity and search costs are dynamically heterogeneous across firms decentralized wage bargains imply important cross sectional inefficiencies which overshadow the static search inefficiencies on which simpler models focus

optimal monetary policy in open versus closed economies an integrated approach in clarida et al 1999 hereafter cgg we presented a normative analysis of monetary policy within a simple optimization based closedeconomy framework we derived the optimal policy rule and among other things characterized the gains from commitment also we made precise the implications for the kind of instrument feedback rule that a central bank should follow in practice in this paper we show how our analysis extends to the case of a small open economy openness complicates the problem of monetary management to the extent the central bank must take into account the impact of the exchange rate on real activity and inflation how to factor the exchange rate into the overall design of monetary policy accordingly becomes a central consideration here we show that under certain conditions the monetary policy design problem for the small open economy is isomorphic to the problem of the closed economy that we considered earlier hence all our qualitative results for the closed economy carry over to this case openness does affect the parameters of the model suggesting quantitative implications though the general form of the optimal interest rate feedback rule remains the same as in the closedeconomy case for example how aggressively a central bank should adjust the interest rate in response to inflationary pressures depends on the degree of openness in addition openness gives rise to an important distinction between domestic inflation and consumer price inflation as defined by the cpi to the extent that there is perfect exchange rate pass through we find that the central bank should target domestic inflation and allow the exchange rate to float despite the impact of the resulting exchangerate variability on the cpi kosuki aoki 1999 gali and tommaso monacelli 2000

a general equilibrium macro model with wage bargaining in a general equilibrium macro model with wage bargaining agents are divided into capitalists and workers the markets for produced goods and money are competitive but the wage rate is determined by negotiation between an employers union and a trade union unions are supposed to be long sighted and care about members utilities in stationary states nash bargaining equilibria are characterized by unemployment for certain parameter values this unemployment is persistent in the sense that it appears in an equilibrium with endogenous prices a neutrality result for monetary policy is also shown

price stability with imperfect financial integration this paper studies whether the international monetary system can be affected by asymmetries in the cross country positions in the international financial markets i e the fact that some countries are large debtors while others are creditors an important channel that is explored is the interaction between international risk sharing and the stabilization role of monetary policy in each country the main finding is that the welfare costs of incomplete markets and the gains of deviating from a policy of price stability are increasing with the cross country asymmetries in the initial net international positions and in particular they become nonnegligible when the persistence of the shocks increases 1 of a permanent shift in steady state consumption for the welfare costs of incomplete markets and 0 2 for the gains of deviating from a policy of price stability when global imbalances become larger optimal monetary policy requires an increase in the volatilities of the real returns on assets and in particular of the nominal interest rates which should happen to be more correlated across countries

fixed adjustment costs and aggregate fluctuations this paper studies the analytics of a canonical model of xed adjustment costs in the presence of idiosyncratic productivity shocks we provide a novel analytical characterization of the steady state and dynamics of aggregate outcomes implied by the model the dynamics are shown to have an intuitive partial adjustment representation these results are then used to derive a set of approximations to model outcomes in the presence of a small adjustment cost surprisingly these reveal that both aggregate steady state outcomes and aggregate dynamics are approximately neutral with respect to a small xed adjustment cost we show that this neutrality result emerges from a symmetry property in the distributional dynamics of the model and arises even in the absence of general equilibrium adjustment of prices a set of quantitative illustrations con rms these analytical results for parameterizations commonly used in the literature on employment adjustment

menu costs and the neutrality of money a model of endogenous price adjustment under money growth is presented firms follow s s pricing policies and price revisions are imperfectly synchronized in the aggregate price stickiness disappears and money is neutral the connection between firm price adjustment and relative price variability in the presence of monetary growth is also investigated the results contrast with those obtained in models with exogenous fixed timing of price adjustment

credit constraints in general equilibrium experimental results our work attempts to investigate the influence of credit tightness orexpansion on activity and relative prices in a multimarket set up we report on somedouble auction two market experiments where subjects had to satisfy an inequalityinvolving the use of credit the experiments display two regimes characterizedby high and low credit availability the critical value of credit at the commonboundary of the two regimes has a compelling interpretation as the maximal credituse at the arrow debreu equilibrium of the abstract economy naturally associatedto our experimental environment our main results are that changes in theavailability of credit a have minor and unsystematic effects on quantitiesand relative prices in the high credit regime b have substantial effects bothon quantities and relative prices in the low credit regime

rational fix price dynamics abstract we study a macroeconomic model where stabilization problems arise as the result of a dynamic game of income distribution between capitalists and workers the two agents control the supply sides of the goods and labor markets respectively using price changes as strategic variables and a static fix price model with money labor and one macro commodity to correctly predict the behaviour of the economy at each instant of time the resulting medium run price dynamics is consistent with major stylized facts on business cycles it accounts for an empirical regularity that has been left unexplained by other models and suggests a new relationship between the functional income distribution and the economy s sensitivity to shocks

undominated prices in the three good model abstract any movement away from walrasian prices will make somebody worse off we ask which other prices share this property the paper characterizes the set of such prices called undominated prices for the three good economy output labor and a nonproduced good that is now well known from the work of barro grossman benassy and malinvaud we consider two groups of consumers workers and shareholders we show that under some conditions there exist prices and wages that generate unemployment and are undominated this requires that a workers be poorly endowed with the nonproduced good b there be little substitution in consumption between the produced and the nonproduced good and c the market for the produced good be balanced i e prices equal marginal costs

a near rational model of the business cycle with wage and price inertia this paper presents a model in which insignificantly suboptimal behavior causes aggregate demand shocks to have significant real effects the individual loss to agents with inertial price wage behavior is second order in terms of the parameter describing the shock while the effect on real economic variables is first order thus significant changes in business activity can be generated by anticipated money supply changes provided that some agents are willing to engage in nonmaximizing behavior which results in small losses

designing targeting rules for international monetary policy cooperation this study analyzes a two country dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities monopolistic competition and producer currency pricing a quadratic approximation to the utility of the consumers is derived and assumed as the policy objective function of the policymakers it is shown that only under special conditions there are no gains from cooperation and moreover that the paths of the exchange rate and prices in the constrained efficient solution depend on the kind of disturbance that affects the economy it might be the case either for fixed or floating exchange rates despite this result simple targeting rules that involve only targets for the growth of output and for both domestic gdp and cpi inflation rates can replicate the cooperative allocation

imperfect competition and the suboptimality of rational expectations abstract this paper investigates whether nonrational expectations can lead to outcomes which other things being equal pareto dominate rational expectations outcomes in order to carry out this investigation we construct an intertemporal micro based macroeconomic model with the two following strong points a it accommodates both rational and non rational expectations b both prices and quantities are determined by optimizing agents in particular prices are determined by explicit price setters using objective demand curves in this model the first theorem of welfare holds so that the walrasian equilibrium with rational expectations cannot be pareto dominated this conclusion is extremely fragile however and we show that as soon as some degree of imperfect competition is present rational expectations are suboptimal in the sense that they are dominated by irrational expectations

optimal investment policy with fixed adjustment costs and complete irreversibility we develop and solve analytically an investment model with fixed adjust ment costs and complete irreversibility that reproduces observed investment dynamics at the micro level we impose a minimal set of restrictions on tech nology and uncertainty most of the results duplicate or generalize earlier findings that have been established either by simulations or under contrefac tual assumptions

market size and substitutability in imperfect competition a bertrand edgeworth chamberlin model competition is often associated with the idea that there are many traders in the market or that each price maker is small as compared to the market this paper introduces this notion of market size in a model of price competition with imperfect substitutes by constructing a model which creates a bridge between the chamberlin and bertrand edge worth lines of work on price competition we investigate the role of two fundamental parameters in the existence of an equilibrium the market size given by the number n of competitors and the degree of substitutability we prove that a for a given number of n 2 of competitors a sufficiently large but finite degree of substitutability entails nonexistence this thus generalizes the bertrand edgeworth nonexistence result which applies only to perfect substitutes b conversely for a given upper bound on the degree of substitutability a sufficiently large number of competitors ensures existence which thus introduces a significant role for market size in models of imperfect competition we finally investigate the proximity of an equilibrium when it exists to a competitive outcome and we find that both high substitutability and large market size are a condition for competitiveness

corrective tax and subsidy policies in economies with bertrand competition abstract this paper shows how we can correct market failure due to imperfect competition by using taxes and subsidies the analysis is carried out at the general equilibrium level and the importance of objective demand curves is stressed the main conclusions are first it is possible to tax the economy back to the walrasian equilibrium by using linear taxes and subsidies second the welfare theorem holds in an imperfectly competitive economy with corrective taxes and subsidies third a competitive equilibrium can also be achieved by the use of ad valorem taxes and specific output subsidies

currency substitution risk premia and the taylor principle abstract this paper studies the equilibrium determinacy properties of a simple interest rate rule in a small open economy subject to currency substitution i e the use of a foreign currency for domestic transactions and risk premia on foreign borrowing it shows that if currencies are substitute in the provision of liquidity services the rule s response to inflation has to be sufficiently above unity for the equilibrium to be locally determinate this reinforced taylor principle requirement appears to be more binding in economies characterized by a larger elasticity of currency substitution more debt elastic country risk premia and intermediate degrees of dollarization in transactions

the simple macroeconomics of profit sharing this paper is in the spirit of the temporary equilibrium approach to macroeconomics it basically extends that framework to cover a profit sharing system and then compares the macroeconomic characteristics with those of the more familiar wage system a first preliminary step is to demonstrate how a microeconomic model of monopolistic competition can be built up into a junior member of the keynesian macro family the methodology is to create from first principles including a careful formulation of a monopolistically competitive product market structurea natural underpinning for the standard aggregate demand specification the primary goal of the paper is to apply the integrated monopolistic competitionkeynesian type apparatus described above to investigate the macroeconomic properties of a profit sharing economy the existence of a consistent general framework covering both cases invites meaningful comparisons that indicate clearly why an economy based on profit sharing principles possesses natural immunity to stagflation by contrast the wage economya system we have largely accepted without critically examining its macroeconomic consequences is more prone to suffer from unemployment and inflation the policy implications for aggregate demand management in wage and share systems are analyzed and contrasted in writing this paper my philosophy has been to not shirk from using those reasonable parameterizations and functional forms which yield nice crisp results and permit me to focus sharply on the essential logic of basic issues it is certainly possible to present the main results in a somewhat more general formulation as the astute reader will appreciate but i fear only at some cost of distracting attention from those central features i wish to highlight

monetary rules for small open emerging economies abstract this paper develops a variant of the imf s global economic model suitable to analyze macroeconomic dynamics in open economies and uses it to assess the effectiveness of taylor rules and inflation forecast based ifb rules in stabilizing variability in output and inflation our findings suggest that a simple ifb rule that does not rely upon any direct estimates of the equilibrium real interest rate and places a relatively high weight on the inflation forecast may perform better in small open economies than conventional taylor rules

imperfect competition and fixprice equilibria when goods are gross substitutes it is possible in principle that the price quantity pair generated by a model of imperfect competition may satisfy the conditions voluntary trading and absence of frictions for a fixprice equilibrium it is shown that imperfect competitors will typically satisfy voluntary trading provided that appropriate gross substitute assumptions are satisfied hence such assumptions are seen to ensure that the solutions of some well known imperfectly competitive general equilibrium models are indeed fixprice equilibria thus bringing together two important traditions in theoretical microeconomics copyright 1991 by the editors of the scandinavian journal of economics

the costs of losing monetary independence the case of mexico this paper develops a two country monetary model calibrated to data from the united states and mexico to address the question of whether dollarization is welfare improving for the two countries our findings suggest that dollarization is not necessarily pareto superior to monetary independence for mexico there are two persuasive arguments that are often put foleth in support of the idea that many countries would benefit from the adoption of the u s dollar as their national cultency one is the standard argument often made in favor of a common currency that it promotes economic and financial integration and reduces tleansaction costs the other argument is that dollarization would solve the credibility and commitment problem and impose monetary discipline the idea is that many countries particularly in latin america have long histories of high inflation and a record of breaking promises to pursue monetary policies that lead to low inflation taking monetary policy out of the hands of domestic central banks is one way to addleess this issue thus one of the conjectured benefits of adopting the u s dollar hinges on the prospect that this would eliminate an inflationary bias among the participating countries these benefits have to be balanced against the costs associated with the loss of monetary independence that eithele dollarization or a cultency area necessarily implies this loss of monetary independence means that the country can no longer use the instruments of monetary policy to adjust to internal or external shocks these considerations suggest two main questions that should be addressed in thinking about the proposal to adopt the u s dollar in mexico first is the higher inflation rate in mexico necessarily the result of the lack of monetaley discipline ole it can be justified by some principle of optimality in the conduct of monetary policy second is the welfare loss from not being able to use monetary policy to react optimally to shocks quantitatively important

monopolistic equilibrium and involuntary unemployment abstract this note provides a simple example of an economy in which involuntary unemployment may be the consequence of monopolistic behavior on the product market

monetary policy in a financial crisis what are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment and raise welfare under what conditions will a cut have the opposite effects we answer these questions in a general class of open economy models where a financial crisis is modeled as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding we find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded good sector and in adjusting the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy then a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare reducing fall in output and employment when these frictions are absent a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare increasing economic expansion