wto membership and the shift to consumption taxes abstract this paper explores tax policy effects and revenue implications of joining the world trade organization wto and its predecessor the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt it documents that countries joining gatt wto after 1990 have implemented tariff cum tax reforms lowering tariff rates and raising consumption tax rates in particular through reform or introduction of a value added tax vat employing a panel of 97 developing and transitional countries 31 of which joined gatt wto between 1990 and 2011 using robust difference in difference specifications as well as the synthetic control method we find a statistically and economically significant decline in revenues from import duties this finding supports concerns about revenue losses but also corroborates the efficacy of the late uruguay gatt and the wto trade regimes in promoting free trade among new members regarding consumption taxes we find robust evidence that revenue substitution was successful since revenue losses from import duties were more than compensated for by enhanced revenues from consumption taxes with regard to the timing of the revenue effects our results show that revenue losses in import duties mostly take place at the time of membership or later changes in consumption taxation however exhibit pre membership effects as revenues are increased and vat is adopted often a few years ahead of losses in import duties no such effects are found before the start of the accession negotiations indicating that consumption tax reforms are initiated once a country is on the road to gatt wto membership

international institutions and the volatility of international trade during the past half century states have established a large number of international trade institutions both multilateral and regional in scope the existing literature on this topic emphasizes that these agreements are chiefly designed to liberalize and increase the flow of overseas commerce yet such institutions have another function that has been largely ignored by researchers namely reducing volatility in trade policy and trade flows exposure to global markets increases the vulnerability of a country s output to terms of trade shocks governments seek to insulate their economies from such instability through membership in international trade institutions particularly the world trade organization wto and preferential trading arrangements ptas we hypothesize that these institutions reduce the volatility of overseas commerce we further hypothesize that because market actors prefer price stability trade institutions increase the volume of foreign commerce by reducing trade variability this article conducts the first large scale multivariate statistical tests of these two hypotheses using annual data on exports for all pairs of countries from 1951 through 2001 the tests provide strong support for our arguments ptas and the wto regime significantly reduce export volatility in so doing these institutions also increase export levels

efficiency and equalization payments in a federal system of government a synthesis and extensions of recent results this paper investigates the rationale for a system of equalization transfers in a federal system of government the existing sources of inefficiency of resource allocation in economies with more than one level of government are synthesized in the framework of a simple decentralized multiprovince model with mobile factors of production the sources of inefficiency arise first because migrants respond at the margin to incorrect signals owing to the phenomena of rent sharing and fiscal exterality and second because of global rather than local inefficiencies the model is then extended to consider the role of the federal government in providing intergovernmental transfers in the face of such inefficiencies in addition to synthesizing the sources of inefficiency in federal models the equity arguments for equalization are briefly recounted efficacite et paiements de perequation dans un systeme federal de gouvernement synthese et extensions de certains resultats recents ce memoire examine la logique qui soustend un systeme de paiements de perequation dans un systeme fdderal de gouverement les auteurs utilisent un modele simple d un systeme multi provincial decentralise avec des facteurs de production mobiles pour definir les sources d inefficacite dans l allocation des ressources dans les dconomies qui possedent plus d un niveau de gouvernement ces inefficacites proviennent de ce que d abord ceux qui se deplacent le font en reponse a la marge a des signaux incorrects engendres par le partage de la rente sur la base de la residence et par les phenomenes d exteralites fiscales elles sont aussi le resultat d inefficacites globales plutot que locales dans le cadre de ce modele les auteurs analysent le role du gouvernement federal effectuant des transferts inter gouverementaux pour corriger ces inefficacites en plus de presenter une synthese des sources d inefficacite dans les regimes federaux les auteurs font un bref rappel en passant a l ensemble des arguments fondes sur l equite qu on utilise pour rationaliser les paiements de perequation this paper is a linear combination of two papers presented at the may 1982 meetings of the canadian economics association in halifax entitled the case for equalization payments by the authors and recent developments in the theory of regional economic policy in canada by boadway the authors are grateful for comments by the discussants jim johnson and baxter macdonald and by jack mintz brian scarfe gerard belanger david sewell tom courchene and the referees we are especially heavily indebted to dan usher for many stimulating comments and suggestions while the work was in progress some of the above persons will undoubtedly disagree with the emphasis we have chosen to put on various aspects of the analysis for policy purposes support for some of this work has been provided by the economic council of canada and is gratefully acknowledged canadian journal of economics revue canadienne d economique xv no 4 november novembre 1982 printed in canada imprimd au canada 0008 4085 82 0000 0613 01 50 1982 canadian economics association this content downloaded from 207 46 13 127 on wed 12 oct 2016 04 27 47 utc all use subject to http about jstor org terms 614 robin boadway and frank flatters

a race to liberalization diffusion of economic policy reform among oecd economies most oecd economies witnessed a liberalization of economic policies over the past thirty years the present paper examines to what extent this development is caused by domestic political and economic factors on the one hand and international policy diffusion via competitive interaction of governments on the other employing a comprehensive index of economic reform it can be shown that policy diffusion is a driving factor for economic liberalization especially in the fields of regulatory monetary and trade policies we find significant interdependence of policy choices as suggested by theories of policy diffusion

has the internet increased trade developed and developing country evidence developing countries export more to developed but not other developing countries when internet penetration is higher although this could be because internet penetration stimulates exports it could also be because trade openness encourages internet use to test the direction of causation we allow internet use to be determined endogenously using countries regulation of data services as an instrument the results suggest that access to the internet does improve export performance in developing countries although not in developed countries in other words improving internet access in a developing country will stimulate exports from that country to rich countries jel f15

the forecasting approach to efficiency in the wool market this paper develops and presents estimates of a simultaneous equations model of the australian wool market the world s largest producer and exporter of fine wool the model contains functional relationships for unhedged inventories consumption of raw wool and the activities of both hedgers and speculators in wool futures expectations are represented by the adaptive hypothesis this model extends the work of leuthold and hartmann 1979 and leuthold and garcia 1988 by including expectations in the spot futures model and that of goss and giles 1986 by including composite equations for hedger speculators extending the expectations hypothesis to the consumption equation and by using the model to test the efficient markets hypothesis wald tests and likelihood ratio tests for unit roots in wool cash prices are conducted and in no case can the hypothesis of a single unit root be rejected estimation is by three stage least squares with correction for first order serial correlation the model provide

factor mobility and income redistribution in a federation abstract jurisdictions in a federation redistribute income by taxing capital and providing transfers to labor capital and labor move to earn higher returns net of taxes or gross of transfer benefits between jurisdictions in determining its redistributive policy the government for each jurisdiction thus takes into account the effects of its policy on the movement of factors from and to the jurisdiction hence the extent of redistribution depends on the mobility of factors the mobility of capital or labor leads to less redistribution than under autarky however mobility of both capital and labor may lead to more redistribution than if only capital moves as a consequence increased mobility of factors is not necessarily harmful to redistribution

commodity price forecasting with large scale econometric models and the futures market this paper compares the accuracy of major commercial price forecasts for corn wheat soybeans soybean oil soybean meal cotton live cattle and hogs the price forecasting information in futures prices is evaluated by comparison the results among commercial forecasters are mixed but futures prices perform relatively better on average although not universally so these results have important implications for operational risk management

income redistribution in a common labor market when households are mobile among jurisdictions income redistribution by individual jurisdictions creates fiscal externalities a model of interjurisdictional migration is used to study the nature of this redistributive externality analysis of optimal redistribution and optimal corrective subsidies from higher level governments shows that benefit levels for the recipients of income transfers and tax rates on mobile taxpayers should be equalized across jurisdictions a system of jurisdictions with a common labor market can achieve welfare improvements through coordination of domestic redistributive policy or through the intervention of a higher level government copyright 1991 by american economic association

nash equilibria in models of fiscal competition abstract this paper analyzes nash equilibria in a simple model of an economy with jurisdictions engaging in fiscal competition small number nash equilibria in which tax rates are the strategic variables are shown not to coincide with nash equilibria in which public expenditure levels are the strategic variables

a comparison of petroleum futures versus spot prices as predictors of prices in the future abstract even though studies have indicated that the futures market leads the spot market in price discovery this paper hypothesizes that the predictive significance of each should be the same a number of different statistical tests are presented to test this hypothesis when deseasonalized data is employed the predictive significance of each series is found to be the same but when actual prices are employed futures prices did correctly anticipate the observed seasonal pattern

non linear panel estimation of import quotas the evolution of quota premiums under the atc abstract we develop a panel based inequality constrained least squares icls framework for estimating the export tax equivalent ete of quotas where the etes vary over time working with a panel of bilateral data on textile and clothing trade underlying bilateral tariffs and the country pair coverage of quotas under the wto s agreement on textiles and clothing atc we use this framework to examine the evolution of market access conditions in the textile and clothing sectors our estimating framework takes advantage of the panel nature of trade data when calculating export tax equivalents while allowing for inequality constraints on the quota premium estimates we also implement quadrature methods for calculating confidence intervals for our regression based ntb measures

leadership turnover and the durability of international trade commitments under what conditions do states uphold their formal trade commitments while recent work focuses on the formation and design of trade agreements we know comparatively little about the durability of agreements over time we argue that government turnover undermines states commitments to liberalization even if they have already signed an international agreement meant to constrain their behavior we test this argument using data on realized trade in the presence of around 300 preferential trade agreements ptas since 1970 even in the presence of an international agreement ideological turnover is associated with increased political barriers to trade especially when the shift is toward left wing leaders these findings have important implications for our understanding of international cooperation if new leaders do not adhere to their predecessors commitments international agreements may not have lasting economic consequences

the implications of competition among jurisdictions does tiebout need politics the paper investigates whether compensation among local jurisdiction is by itself sufficient to ensure efficient provision of local public goods jurisdictions have fixed boundaries and each has an entrenched government with the power to tax and supply the public good residents can move costlessly among jurisdictions it is shown that competition among numerous jurisdictions is not sificient to guarantee public sector efficiency though residents can vote with their feet land is immobile hence governments can unsurp some land rents for their own ends increasing the number of jurisdictions limits but cannot completely eliminate the ability to exercise discretionary governmental power

a theory of interregional tax competition a general equilibrium model is constructed to study tax competition where local governments compete for capital by holding down property tax rates and public expenditure levels an exact definition of tax competition is provided and both the existence and nonexistence of tax competition are shown to be theoretically possible it is argued however that tax competition must occur under empirically reasonable conditions inefficiency in public production is also explicitly modeled the amount of capital used to produce a given level of public service output is shown to be greater than that which is required to minimize costs evaluated at the prices facing private firms

valuing managerial flexibility an application of real option theory to mining investments abstract the value of managerial flexibility is assessed using data on prices costs grades reserves ore extraction and metal output for a panel of canadian copper mines a real option model is estimated and solved for project and option values most empirical researchers i consider the initial investment decision but neglect flexible operation thereafter ii assume that price is stochastic but ignore cost and reserve uncertainty and iii model price as a nonstationary stochastic process the evolution of three state variables price cost and reserves is assessed here differences in assumptions compared to others are found to lead to large differences in estimated project and option values

peeling away the layers impacts of durable tariff elimination abstract we demonstrate that durable mfn tariff elimination affects trade patterns through several layers and magnitudes of effects are sizable the wto information technology agreement s ita unique setting allows us to overcome the challenges associated with identifying effects of non discriminatory trade policies due to two reasons i ita constitutes a quasi natural experiment of several passive signatories joining the agreement as an unavoidable part of pursuing a larger policy objective and ii ita s partial coverage of the it sector provides a natural control group for identification based on cross product variation our analysis finds novel nonlinear impacts of tariff liberalization complete tariff elimination results in large additional trade gains over and above tariff reductions especially for intermediate goods the commitment to durable tariff elimination through wto bindings adds another two layers boosting both imports and exports more than equivalent unilateral reforms this commitment spurned development of a downstream it export sector in passive signatories

introduction to the stability of rational expectations equilibrium abstract this paper surveys the literature which examines the stability of the expectations that agents are assumed to have in a rational expectations equilibrium ree this issue is more complex than the usual statistical estimation problem because the relationship between observable variables and payoff relevant variables is endogenous one approach taken in the literature yields convergence to a ree but requires agents to have extensive knowledge about the structure and dynamics of the model that prevails while they learn a second approach does not assume that agents have correctly specified likelihood functions and finds that ree may not be stable

the gatt in historical perspective the transformation of the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt into the world trade organization wto on january 1 1995 provides an opportune moment to take stock of the gatt s achievements and shortcomings alongside those of its 50 year old sister international institutions set up at bretton woods it is temptingly easy to attribute the astounding postwar economic expansion particularly when set against the turbulent interwar period when multilateral efforts to contain protectionist pressures failed miserably to the economic policies embodied in the gatt and to the initial stability provided by the bretton woods institutions yet a closer look at precisely what the gatt accomplished in its first decade suggests that trade liberalization under its auspices alone is far from sufficient to explain the postwar economic boom

the semi strong form efficiency of the london metal exchange 1983 the semi strong form efficiency of the london metal exchange applied economics vol 15 no 5 pp 681 698

rent seeking and tax competition abstract regional or local governments often appear to favour the interests of those who own land in the region here the implications of this sort of policy making are modelled formally people are assumed perfectly mobile between regions but are assumed to own land only in the region of their birth the nash equilibrium is shown to be efficient if and only if no migration of capital or labour is needed to achieve efficiency otherwise tax competition leads to too little migration voluntary inter regional transfers will never arise in equilibrium despite the inefficiency of the nash equilibrium when there is migration a higher level of government cannot alter the equilibrium if regional governments choose policies simultaneously after the federal government has committed to its policies

rational expectations risk and efficiency in the london metal exchange an empirical analysis there now exists a number of studies which reject efficiency of the london metal exchange as a joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and risk neutrality in this paper we investigate the presence of time varying risk premia in a number of metal price series conditional on the assumption of rationality our findings include evidence to suggest that forward prices contain information on future spot prices over and above the information contained in current spot prices that there is some evidence of time varying premia in the forward prices for tin and zinc and that the behaviour of these premia are intuitively plausible in particular there appears to be significant covariation between risk premia and the expected spot price change

the welfare state and competitiveness in all industrial countries fiscal policy is increasingly about redistribution in this paper the authors study redistribution across different types of agents in a world characterized by the presence of labor unions and distortionary taxation they show that an increase in transfers financed by distortionary taxation has nonlinear effects on unit labor costs relative to the other countries depending on the degree of centralization of the wage setting process in the labor market the authors find considerable empirical support for the model in a sample of fourteen oecd countries copyright 1997 by american economic association

uncertain income and redistribution in a federal system abstract this paper considers income redistribution in a federal system where regions experience random shocks federal redistribution serves as insurance against jurisdiction specific shocks but provides a uniform assistance to the poor and cannot suit individual jurisdictions demands for redistribution consequently whether the federal government should redistribute depends on the advantage of pooling the risk and the disadvantage of compromising different preferences for redistribution with mobile individuals federal redistribution loses its advantage because migration ensures the equalization of factor incomes between regions and because even local redistribution serves as insurance however local redistribution creates fiscal externalities and distorts the allocation of labor

measuring protection mission impossible abstract there seems to be some confusion between openness and protection measures in the international trade literature the aim of this paper is to bring together the state of the art in quantifying trade policy measures and for this reason we focus on the extent of the protection granted by policies rather than on the degree of openness of the economy given the considerable amount of literature that deals with these issues we will limit our review as follows on the one hand we focus on trade policies implemented at the border and therefore do not consider all the other possible public interventions influencing trade flows on the other hand we only take into account indexes that explicitly adopt a metric expressed in a scalar aggregate tariff and quota equivalent measures or an index in a closed interval we distinguish between indexes that aggregate across products same barrier for more products and indexes that aggregate across instruments more barriers for the same product finally in order to classify the large number of indexes covered in our review we propose a typology based on three categories incidence outcome and equivalence

assistance to the poor in a federal system abstract this paper explores the roles of different levels of government in assisting the poor using a model incorporating utility interdependence the paper first presents some theoretical results indicating how levels of poor relief vary with the extent of mobility of the poor under both centralized and decentralized systems of support it then provides a survey of the empirical work on migration of the poor along with a brief historical discussion of the experience under the english poor laws the concluding section turns to normative issues and contends that mobility of the poor is a basic source of inefficiency in wholly decentralized systems of support this inefficiency along with certain other equity considerations establishes a role for the central government in assistance to the poor

partisan embedding of liberalism how trade investment and immigration affect party support for the welfare state political scientists have long debated how economic globalization influences national social policies but they have so far not explored the political demands of political parties implicitly underl

decentralized income redistribution and immigration abstract we analyze the welfare and other effects of immigration on a system of jurisdictions with a common labor market mobile capital and redistributive tax transfer policies comparative statics analysis of a model of nash non cooperative equilibria in tax transfer policies shows that the welfare effect of immigration depends on whether immigrants are net fiscal contributors or burdens any one jurisdiction s redistribution and immigration policies generate fiscal externalities for others in the system which a central government can internalize by appropriate taxes and subsidies

delivery uncertainty and the efficiency of futures markets this paper examines the effects of the delivery basis risk embedded in nearly all futures contracts on efficiency tests of these markets examining soybean futures contracts we show that delivery basis risk has important implications for market efficiency tests as suming no delivery basis risk the market efficiency hypothesis is rejected however fu tures prices contain signiflcant time varying expected delivery basis and time varying ex pected delivery risk premiums once these expected delivery basis and delivery risk premiums are accounted for the apparent inefficiency is eliminated equilibrium spot prices also contain signiflcant time varying expected delivery risk premiums

policy cooperation among benevolent governments may be undesirable this paper presents a simple counterexample to the belief that policy cooperation among benevolent governments is desirable it also explains circumstances under which such counterexamples are possible and relates them to the literature on time inconsistency since the work of hamada 1976 investigating the effects of increasing policy cooperation among countries has been a major topic in international economics a standard conclusion of this work is that increasing policy cooperation among countries is desirable in a seminal paper rogoff 1985 has challenged this view using a simple monetary model rogoff shows that cooperation among policy makers can lead to a lower level of welfare than noncooperation does rogoff s result has caused much consternation among those who advocate policy cooperation and his work has been criticized along several dimensions for example some authors including canzoneri and henderson 1988 have noted that a key assumption in rogoff s model is that the objective function of each country s policy maker does not coincide with the objective function of its residents indeed if in his model policy makers maximize the welfare of their country s residents the counterexample is overturned and cooperation strictly dominates noncooperation this feature leads some to interpret rogoff s result as simply saying that if policy makers form a coalition against the private sector they may be worse off than if they do not others such as neck and dockner 1988 have claimed that rogoff s result depends on private agents acting strategically under this interpretation rogoff s result is relevant to say economies with a large trade union but not to economies with a large number of competitive private agents in a somewhat different vein persson 1988 and especially devereux 1986a b have questioned the significance of welfare comparisons across different institutional regimes in a model without a solid foundation for the behavioural relationships this paper presents a simple model in which governments are benevolent but cooperation is still undesirable the model is a two country version of fischer s 1980 optimal tax model in it private agents are competitive in that each agent takes both prices and government policies as uninfluenced by his actions and each government maximizes the welfare of its country s residents in the paper the two different regimes cooperative and noncooperative

mobility and redistribution the ability of individuals to move freely from one jurisdiction to another is generally seen as a constraint on the amount of redistribution that each jurisdiction within a system of governments can undertake in this paper we look at this proposition by developing a positive analysis of income redistribution by local governments in a federal system we ask how much redistribution occurs when only local governments can have tax transfer instruments individuals can move freely among jurisdictions and voters in each jurisdiction are fully aware of the migration effects of redistributive policies local redistribution is shown to induce sorting of the population with the poorest households located in the communities that provide the most redistribution while the threat of out migration affects the potential for redistribution our results suggest that significant local redistribution is nonetheless feasible numerical computations indicate that the proportion of residents who are renters is a major factor affecting the local choice of level of redistribution

the price forecasting performance of futures markets for live cattle and hogs a disaggregated analysis four hypotheses about the price forecasting performance of live cattle and hog futures are tested using disaggregated data live cattle futures are found to have inadequate forecasting performance for each hypothesis and do not provide better forecasts than lagged cash prices live hog futures perform well for three hypotheses but not when economic conditions are unstable hog futures provide better forecasts than lagged cash prices the analysis does not support the contention that these futures markets are agencies for rational price formation

futures market efficiency in the soybean complex 13 1 rev division of agricultural sciences university of ifornla working paper no 139 r i j futures market efficiency in the soybean complex gordon c rausser and colin carter giannini foundation of agricultural economics l ibraili v im california agric u l tural elqieriment station giannini foundation of agricultural economics march 1982

social protection and political competition this paper analyses how the level of social protection is determined when its choice depends on political competition first this is done under autarky then the analysis is extended to take account of the existence of an international capital market we show that social protection never increases under international competition and in several circumstances drastically decreases

econometric modelling of non ferrous metal prices abstract this article evaluates the significance of the empirical models and the distributional properties of prices in non ferrous metal spots and futures markets published in leading refereed economics and finance journals between 1980 and 2002 the survey focuses on econometric analyses of pricing and return models applied to exchange based spot and futures markets for the main industrially used non ferrous metals namely aluminium copper lead nickel tin and zinc published empirical research is evaluated in the light of the type of contract examined frequency of data used choice of both dependent and explanatory variables use of proxy variables type of model chosen economic hypotheses tested methods of estimation and calculation of ses for inference reported descriptive statistics use of diagnostic tests of auxiliary assumptions use of nested and non nested tests use of information criteria and empirical implications for non ferrous metals

trade wars and trade talks when governments meet in the international arena their actions reflect the political situations at home previous studies of trade relations have focused on governments that are immune from political pressures and that act as benevolent servants of the public interest here we introduce domestic politics into the analysis of international economic relations we study the interactions between national leaders who are concerned both with providing a high standard of living to the general electorate and collecting campaign contributions from special interest groups our analysis sheds light on the determinants of the structure of protection in non cooperative and cooperative policy equilibria

the forward pricing function of the london metal exchange future prices are rationally formed current prices relating to later delivery dates and they are not forecasts of subsequent spot prices yet if all available information including economic agents expectations is fully taken into account in the price formation process then both current spot and futures prices may be regarded as market anticipations of subsequent spot prices this paper explores the hypothesis that futures prices and spot are predictors of subsequent spot prices in this sense it assesses the predictive performance of futures prices for four non ferrous metals traded on the london metal exchange using a simple linear model estimated by both ordinary least squres and instrumental variable estimators significant differences are found as between copper zinc tin and lead the paper begins with a discussion of the feasibility conditions for futures trading and the functions of futures markets including a detailed review of the forward pricing function

rejection of unbiasedness is not rejection of market efficiency reply to gilbert 1986 rejection of unbiasedness is not rejection of market efficiency reply to gilbert applied economics vol 18 no 11 pp 1167 1178

rational expectations and forward exchange market efficiency this paper is concerned with testing the hypothesis that expectations in the foreign exchange market are rational as has been assumed in recent asset market approaches to exchange rate determination the relationship between the rational expectations hypothesis and the notion of forward market efficiency is discussed and the latter is used as a means of testing for rationality evidence is presented which is largely consistent with the market efficiency rational expectations hypotheis

forward contracts and futures contracts abstract this paper provides a detailed discussion of the similarities and differences between forward contracts and futures contracts under frictionless markets and continuous trading simple arbitrage arguments are invoked to value forward contracts to relate forward prices and spot prices and to relate forward prices and futures prices we also argue that forward prices need not equal futures prices unless default free interest rates are deterministic

asymmetric tax competition abstract the paper analyzes nash equilibrium when two jurisdictions set tax rates on a tax base which is mobile between them population differences imply tax differences the smaller jurisdiction levies a lower tax rate in equilibrium and its residents are better off than those in the larger jurisdiction the nash equilibrium is inefficient if the two jurisdictions merged the resulting allocation would be efficient however if differences in population are great enough residents of the small jurisdiction would be made worse off by such a merger

factor mobility risk and redistribution in the welfare state economic integration reduces the costs of factor mobility producing efficiency gains and contributing to equalization of net factor returns this raises the cost of income redistribution policy thus threatening a basic function of the welfare state a simple model of costly factor mobility under uncertainty shows that greater factor mobility enables factor owners to pool industry specific region specific or occupation specific risks due to uncertain technology or terms of trade economic integration may thus reduce some of the potential social insurance benefits of redistributive policy

regionalism within multilateralism the wto trade policy review of canada the world trade organisation published a trade policy review of canada in 2003 in this paper we discuss the wto review and augment the discussion by presenting original data and reviewing the empirical literature the wto concludes that canada s trade regime is open and transparent but maintains barriers in a few important sectors we subject this claim to empirical scrutiny comparing canada s actual imports to a multilateral benchmark based on the gravity equation we show that canada imports about what should be expected given the size of its economy and its location in a second benchmarking exercise we show that canada s anti dumping initiations are in proportion to its imports and that canada s exports are targeted less by other countries anti dumping investigations than what might be expected based on canadian export levels like many other countries canada has pursued trade liberalisation through the world trade organisation while simultaneously signing multiple regional trade agreements our summary of the recent literature indicates that canada s regional trade agreements have generated more trade creation than trade diversion canada has also spurred imports from the least developed countries by unilaterally eliminating tariffs and quota barriers on 48 of the world s poorest countries in january 2003 we also discuss canadian progress in opening its agriculture and clothing industries overall we conclude that canada appears committed to advancing globalisation through multilateral trade liberalisation supplemented by unilateral and bilateral initiatives

an examination of the necessary and sufjicient conditions for market eflciency the case of hogs the pricing efficiency of the live hog futures market is examined utilizing both necessary and sufficient conditions out of sample forecasts from an econometric model an arima model and a composite forecasting model are compared with the forward prices of the futures market within a mean squared error framework at least one model and frequently all of them forecast more accurately than the futures market a necessary condition for market efficiency the sufficient condition is assessed using simulated market trading strategies based o n the most accurate model forecasts results suggest that informational inefficiencies exist in the live hog futures market

pigou tiebout property taxation and the underprovision of local public goods abstract pigou s proposition that the use of distorting taxes rather than neutral head taxes reduces public service levels is examined in this paper a simple model with a national system of competing local governments is utilized to demonstrate that the use of a distorting property tax on mobile capital decreases the level of residential public services the case where public services are an intermediate producer good is also considered

decentralized welfare will there be underprovision abstract this paper develops an asymmetric nash equilibrium model of welfare provision by states when the benefit payment is a local public good and a fixed population of welfare recipients distributes itself between states with logistic migration function the model shows that state size is an important demand shifter across states because it alters the supply elasticity of recipients the model provides estimates of how the degree of benefit under provision varies with this migration elasticity other demand instruments such as taxpayer resources and generosity likewise generate positive correlation between benefits and recipients while supply shifters generate negative correlation between benefits and recipients the model s predictions are closely matched empirically when examining the reduced form impact of these instruments on the pattern of welfare benefits and recipients across states using these impacts to assign the instruments to either supply or demand sides of the model it is possible to estimate the model s structural elasticities these turn out to be high enough so that simulated solutions to the model generate considerable welfare underprovision and thus raise concern about a race to the bottom with decentralized control over afdc

efficiency of experimental security markets with insider information an application of rational expectations models the study reports on the ability of competing models of market information integration and dissemination to explain the behavior of simple laboratory markets for a one priced security returns to the security depended upon a randomly drawn state of nature some agents insiders whose identity was unknown to other agents knew the state before the markets opened with replication of market conditions the predictions of a fully revealing rational expectations model are relatively accurate prices adjusted immediately to near rational expectations prices profits of insiders were virtually indistinguishable from non insiders and efficiency levels converged to near 100 percent

how bad is antidumping evidence from panel data abstract current research on antidumping suggests a number of channels through which antidumping affects the volume of world trade this paper uses a structural approach to the gravity model framework to evaluate these hypotheses using data on trade volume over the period 1948 to 2001 we conclude that the volume and welfare effects have been negative but quite modest

interest rates and efficiency in medieval wool forward contracts while it is commonly believed that derivative instruments are a recent invention we document the existence of forward contracts for the sale of wool in medieval england around 700 years ago the contracts were generally entered into by english monasteries who frequently sold their wool for up to 20 years in advance to mostly foreign and particularly italian merchants employing a unique source of data collected by hand from the historical records we determine the interest rates implied in these transactions and we also examine the efficiency of the forward and spot markets the calculated interest rates average around 20 in accordance with available information concerning the interest rates used in other types of transactions at that time perhaps surprisingly we also find little evidence of informational inefficiencies in these markets

interrelafionships between spot and futures markets some implications of rational expectations the view that futures contract prices for storable agricultural commodities are rationally held expectations of subsequent cash prices has been widely accepted since holbrook working first explained commodity market intertemporal price behavior in these terms in 1958 subsequent analyses by brennan weymar tomek and gray and others adopted and extended working s interpretation yet despite its acceptance implications of the rational expectations view have been all but ignored in econometric modeling efforts directed at explaining and predicting intertemporal price relations the purpose of this paper is a to propose an econometric modeling approach that recognizes the role of rational expectation formation in joint determination of commodity cash and futures prices and b to explore the implications of such an approach for the following issues i the direction and magnitude of changes in cash and futures prices occurring in response to changes in economic information and the direction of causality between cash and futures prices and ii the function of futures markets as agencies for forecasting price and the probable forecasting performance of futures contract prices some issues addressed here have implications for all futures traded commodities the arguments presented however relate most clearly to storable continuously inventoried commodities the nature of storage behavior and thus the relation between cash and futures prices for some commodities livestock in particular has not yet been resolved satisfactorily but these issues are not addressed here working s theory of anticipatory prices 1958 asserts that decisions on cash and futures prices take into account all available and relevant information concerning historical relationships as well as current and expected supply demand conditions according to this theory the current period futures price for a contract maturing in time t t is the current market expectation of the subsequent cash market price in t t with only slight modification this interpretation can be considered equivalent to the more current rational expectations or equally redundant efficient market hypothesis formally stated the rational expectations hypothesis muth s extended version asserts that expectations of individual market participants the subjective probability distribution of price outcomes tend to be distributed for the same information set about the predictions of the theory the objective probability distribution of price outcomes in another interpretation it is simply asserted that economic agents use the appropriate economic model in forming their expectations of future prices if valid this latter interpretation has clear implications for the construction of econometric models of futures traded commodities to explore these implications we posit a model which assumes rational expectation formation

do we really know that the wto increases trade reply michael tomz judith l goldstein and doug las rivers 1hereafter tgr2 argue that the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt and its successor the world trade organization 1wto had a substantial positive effect on trade their paper is a critique of my article do we really know that the wto increases trade which appeared in this review 2004a among other things i used a bilateral gravity model of trade and showed that dummy variables for member ship by either one or two countries in the gatt had only small effects on trade in essence tgr point out that a lot of countries were not formal members of the gatt but still participated in it as colonies or de facto or provisional members tgr argue that if one includes these other types of more informal participation one gets large positive effects for what it s worth i stated in my original article that de jure accession to the gatt need not be the same as de facto accession but i wasn t able to quantify it and encouraged others to do so tgr did precisely that at the cost of much tedious archival work i applaud them for it and will certainly not question its accuracy i also like their methodological strategy which is to follow my empirical framework closely and rely mostly on simply adding informal partici pation to formal gatt membership tgr cite my work selectively but extensively it s a clean and effective way to proceed i like their paper and have learned a lot by reading it and thinking about the issues it raised all who are interested in the topic of the impact of the multilateral system on trade should take it seriously still i have concerns about the mean ing plausibility and robustness of their results do we really know that the wto increases trade reply

do external interventions work the case of trade reform conditions in imf supported programs abstract trade reform conditions are common in imf supported programs of the 99 countries that had imf programs during 1993 2003 77 had trade reform conditions in their programs since the wto has not been found especially effective in promoting trade openness for most developing countries it is of great interest to see if the imf has been more effective as it combines carrots and sticks not available to the wto yet the effectiveness of these trade conditions has not been systematically studied using a unique dataset this paper provides such an assessment it finds that trade conditions are indeed associated with an increase in trade openness on average but the effect comes mostly from countries that can be characterized by a high degree of willingness to reform

redistribution fiscal competition and the politics of economic integration the paper examines the consequences of the economic integration of factor markets in a model with two countries that redistribute income among their residents the social benefits in each country are financed by a source based tax on capital which is democratically chosen by its inhabitants if either capital or labour is internationally mobile the countries engage in fiscal competition and the partial integration of capital or labour markets is detrimental to the countries redistributive ability a move from partial to full integration however may alleviate rather than intensify fiscal competition particularly if the two countries face sufficiently similar economic and political conditions in such a situation for example tax competition for mobile capital is softened as the labour market becomes more integrated and even vanishes if both factors are fully mobile as a result there is more redistribution in equilibrium and a majority of the population in each country is strictly better off copyright 2002 wiley blackwell

on the emergence of an mfn club equal treatment in an unequal world motivated by gatt we endogenize the formation of a club whose members have to abide by the mfn principle of non discrimination the underlying model is that of oligopolistic intraindustry trade while an mfn club does not alter average tariff levels across countries it increases aggregate world welfare makes non members worse off and can immiserize its high cost members these results imply that i core wto rules such as mfn are valuable even if multilateral negotiations deliver limited trade liberalization and ii the distributional effects of mfn maybe one reason why developing countries have been granted special and differential treatment at the wto jel classification f13 f10 f15

do wto members have more liberal trade policy abstract this paper uses 68 measures of trade policy and liberalization to ask if membership in the world trade organization wto and its predecessor the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt is associated with more liberal trade policy almost no measures of trade policy are significantly correlated with gatt wto membership trade liberalizations when they occur usually lag gatt entry by many years and the gatt wto often admits countries that are closed and remain closed for years the exception to the rule is that wto members tend to have slightly more freedom as judged by the heritage foundation s index

the divergent effects of joining international organizations trade gains and the rigors of wto accession governments have joined the world trade organization wto in vastly different ways some have taken mere days to join without undertaking any trade liberalization while others have taken more than a decade and been forced to undergo significant liberalization we argue that the more rigorous a state s accession to an international organization io and thus the greater policy change required to join the greater the benefits it will receive from membership in the organization in the trade context states facing greater scrutiny from the wto and thus engaging in greater trade liberalization as part of the wto accession process should experience greater trade on joining compared to those who face little scrutiny and engage in little if any liberalization we develop a three part classification of wto members based on type of accession early automatic and rigorous and then compile detailed original data on the accession experiences of each relevant state including length of time number of veto players rounds of questions and tariff and nontariff commitments results of exhaustive quantitative tests on all countries from 1950 to 2006 which are robust to estimator sample period and model specification choices consistently demonstrate that those who engage in the greatest amount of accession driven liberalization experience the greatest trade increases from wto membership particularly in the years right after joining in contrast those who do little or nothing to join do not see any trade gains from being a wto member these findings reconcile previous findings on the effects of wto membership on trade highlight the causal importance of io accession and illuminate the conditions under which ios will have beneficial effects for member states

the price variability volume relationship on speculative markets this paper concerns the relationship between the variability of the daily price change and the daily volume of trading on the speculative markets our work extends the theory of speculative markets in two ways first we derive from economic theory the joint probability distribution of the price change and the trading volume over any interval of time within the trading day and second we determine how this joint distribution changes as more traders enter or exit from the market the model s parameters are estimated by fiml using daily data from the 90 day t bills futures market the results of the estimation can reconcile a conflict between the price variability volume relationship for this market and the relationship obtained by previous investigators for other speculative markets this paper concerns the relationship between the variability of the daily price change and the volume of trading on speculative markets previous empirical studies 2 3 6 12 14 16 of both futures and equity markets always find a positive association between price variability as measured by the squared price change ap2 and the trading volume 2 there are two explanations for the relationship clark s 2 explanation which is secondary to his effort to explain why the probability distribution of the daily price change is leptokurtic emphasizes randomness in the number of within day transactions in clark s model the daily price change is the sum of a random number of within day price changes the variance of the daily price change is thus a random variable with a mean proportional to the mean number of daily transactions clark argues that the trading volume is related positively to the number of within day transactions and so the trading volume is related positively to the variability of the price change the second explanation is due to epps and epps 6 their model examines the mechanics of within day trading the change in the market price on each within day transaction or market clearing is the average of the changes in all of the traders reservation prices epps and epps assume there is a positive relationship between the extent to which traders disagree when they revise their reservation prices and the absolute value of the change in the market price that is an increase in the extent to which traders disagree is associated with a larger absolute price change the price variability volume relationship arises then because the volume of trading is positively related to the extent to which traders disagree when they revise their reservation prices

agricultural trade and the gatt wto does membership make a difference recent empirical studies have estimated the trade flow effect of membership in the world trade organization wto and its predecessor the general agreement on tariffs and trade gatt one important although largely untested conclusion from this literature is that the gatt wto works well if we ignore trade in agriculture one of the institutions seemingly apparent failures this article investigates this conclusion using a large panel of agricultural and non agricultural trade flows the results are impressive the multilateral institution has delivered significant positive effects on members agricultural trade despite its sensitive nature and the reluctance of members to undertake serious reform these findings are robust to various slices of the data and recent advances in the specification and estimation of the gravity equation to account for sample selection issues and the extensive margin of trade copyright 2012 oxford university press

speculative storage futures markets and the stability of commodity prices a theoretical dynamic model is developed that integrates the micro behavior of commodity and futures speculators into the simultaneous determination of cash and futures prices in a storable commodity market the model is used to demonstrate the way in which the introduction of a futures market by affecting the decisions of speculative inventory holders alters the distribution of spot prices and to elucidate the conditions that render futures trading stabilizing for cash prices

the relation between forward prices and futures prices abstract this paper consolidates the results of some recent work on the relation between forward prices and futures prices it develops a number of propositions characterizing the two prices these propositions contain several testable implications about the difference between forward and futures prices many of the propositions show that equilibrium forward and futures prices are equal to the values of particular assets even though they are not in themselves asset prices the paper then illustrates these results in the context of two valuation models and discusses the effects of taxes and other institutional factors

property taxation nash equilibrium and market power abstract differences in tax policy arise from differences in the number of jurisdictions in a metropolitan area following wildasin 4 and bucovetsky 2 the tax rates in the jurisdictions are determined in a nash game in the tax rate the tax rate and public service level as well as the welfare of residents increase as the number of jurisdictions in the metropolis decreases

intertemporal allocation in the corn and soybean markets with rational expectations this paper addresses the intertemporal allocation of supplies and the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices in the u s corn and soybeans markets these markets were selected for study because of their importance in the u s grain trade and in u s futures markets on the chicago board of trade in 1981 these two grains accounted for 81 26 of all trading in grain futures simultaneous equations models of commodity futures markets have received some attention in the literature stein 1961 1964 developed a two equation simultaneous model comprising functional relationships for discretionary hedging and speculation in commodity markets more recently dewbre estimated a two equation model of spot and futures price determination in commodity markets with rational expectations our study however constitutes the first application of a simultaneous equations model to a comparative study of u s commodity markets with separate functional relationships for long and short hedgers long and short speculators in futures and consumers and holders of unhedged inventories this model is based on peston and yamey although that model did not account explicitly for the activities of long hedgers and short speculators the next section discusses the specification of the equations and the third section outlines the data and estimation method employed the results and validation of the model are discussed in the fourth section the conclusions are stated in the last section while cash and futures prices are endogenous variables in this model the variances of these prices are not treated as endogenous moreover the model is estimated separately for the corn and soybeans markets rather than as a joint model for corn and soybeans products both these matters may be worthwhile extensions of the approach employed here although they go beyond what is attempted in this paper

the efficient estimation of econometric models with rational expectations the efficient estimation of econometric models with rational expectations by the substitution method usually entails the use of a non linear simultaneous equations estimator and hence is not very attractive computationally it is shown that for a wide class of problems efficient estimates can also be obtained with standard estimation methods if instead an errors in variables approach is used for many other problems although not providing fully efficient estimates because rationality is not imposed the errors in variables method will still have a strong appeal because otherwise it uses all of the structural information in the model unlike the substitution method when an incomplete information set is used it guarantees consistent estimates and it is easy to compute

sources of emission reductions market and policy stringency effects abstract international trade and economic development affect air emissions previous studies have decomposed their effects into scale composition and technique effects while the scale and composition effects occur through market responses the technique effect is a policy stringency influence through the mix of environmental policies this study analyzes whether the market or policy stringency effects are more prominent previous studies have been unable to adequately separate the market and policy stringency effects to independently measure the technique effect we use two indicators of policy stringency i e shadow prices of energy and industrial energy prices these policy stringency measures are treated as endogenous the effects on six types of air emissions are estimated utilizing a sector specific international panel dataset that includes newly industrialized and former transition economies the empirical results show that the major source of emissions reductions is the policy stringency effect through carbon related policies pollution offshoring to countries with weaker carbon related regulation has a minor role in the reduction of air emissions

tariff liberalisation and the growth of world trade a comparative historical analysis of the multilateral trading system the aim of this study is to assess the relationship between tariff barriers and world trade growth from a comparative and historical perspective and at the same time derive some useful indications for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading system in promoting world trade the distinguishing feature of this work is the complex reconstruction of the historical series for the period 1870 2000 on the tariffs and trade of 23 countries thus constituting a good proxy of world trade for the period considered accounting for over 60 per cent the study of the relationship between tariff liberalization and trade growth was made through an empirical analysis using panel data and time series the empirical results whilst confirming the existence of a long term relationship at world level between tariff reductions and trade growth demonstrate how this substantial and significant relationship in the period prior to world war ii gradually lost importance and significance from 1950 onwards this result does not controvert the role that the gatt wto system has played in trade liberalization but would confirm the arguments of those sustaining the importance of the presence of a formalized multilateral trading system not so much in tariff liberalization but in building a virtuous process of international coordination of trade policies and to ensure a fairer and fuller participation in world trade

unit roots tests evidence from the foreign exchange futures market in this paper tests are conducted for the presence of unit roots in the autoregression representation of foreign exchange currency futures price series the results obtained from five different currency futures over the 1977 1983 period suggestthat foreign currency futures rates have autoregressive representations with a singleunit root i e borderline nonstationarity in view of this result it appears thatthe process generating the natural logarithm of foreign currency futures rates may well be approximated by random walks

mobile labor multiple tax instruments and tax competition abstract the tax competition literature shows that local governments keep property tax rates inefficiently low to prevent capital outflows thereby underproviding local public goods this paper adds mobile labor and an alternative tax instrument to the model jurisdictions have access to a property tax levied on land and capital plus either a head tax or a labor tax scale economies in public good provision create incentives to use the property tax but these incentives are not accompanied by increased incentives to underprovide public goods in contrast underprovision is associated with the use of a distortionary labor tax

dynamic gravity endogenous country size and asset accumulation the gravity equation is the most successful and celebrated empirical model in international trade over the past decade numerous gravity applications have resorted to panel data econometric techniques in order to account for the intrinsically dynamic nature of trade data with the theory of gravity being so far only static these empirical estimations lack solid structural foundations as a consequence a consensus on a unied dynamic gravity estimation approach is yet to be reached the contribution of this paper is threefold first we build a theoretical foundation for the gravity model in a dynamic setting second we use our structural framework to provide clear empirical implications for gravity type estimations with panel data and we consider applications finally to better understand the eect of trade policy in this dynamic framework we calibrate and numerically simulate our general equilibrium model and we compare its properties to those of the standard static gravity model

welfare reform and the race to the bottom theory and evidence economists have argued that welfare migration leads to a race to the bottom in the choice of welfare benefits although a system of federal matching grants can remedy this problem the recent welfare reform law replaced the existing matching grant structure with block grants a policy change that appears undesirable to judge whether this critique of welfare reform is justified this paper evaluates the evidence in favor of a race to the bottom after explaining the theoretical effects of welfare migration the paper surveys the empirical evidence on the occurrence of such migration concluding that the evidence is mixed the discussion also considers recent empirical tests for strategic interaction which show that benefit levels in nearby states affect a given state s benefit choice the most plausible source of such interaction is a concern about welfare migration which leads policymakers to look at benefits in neighboring states when making their own choices judging that the evidence appears consistent with the existence of a race to the bottom the paper concludes that the demise of matching grants may be undesirable from a policy perspective

a tiebout tax competition model abstract this paper analyzes a tiebout tax competition model where heterogeneity of consumer preferences is introduced into a standard tax competition framework following the modern tiebout tradition consumer sorting in the model is achieved through the activities of profit maximizing community developers once sorting is achieved the equilibrium is equivalent to that in a standard tax competition model with immobile but heterogeneous consumers a principal lesson of the analysis is that under capital taxation consumers with high public good demands are worse off than under a head tax regime in pursuit of high levels of public spending high demand communities impose high tax rates which drive away capital the analysis also establishes a number of other results