a new look at the returns and risks to pharmaceutical r d this study investigates the returns to r d for 100 new drugs introduced into the united states during the decade of the 1970s in contrast to prior studies it incorporates several significant structural changes that have occurred in the pharmaceutical industry during the 1980s these include higher real drug prices and a greater degree of generic competition a major finding is that the return on r d for the average new drug is approximately equal to the 9 percent industry cost of capital however the performance of new drugs introduced during the latter half of the 1970s was markedly better than that of early 1970s introductions this latter finding is consistent with the more rapid rate of industry growth in real r d expenditures the study also finds that the variation in returns is highly skewed with only the top 30 drugs covering mean r d costs on a fully allocated basis finally it is shown that real drug price increases in the 1980s were necessary for the average new drug introduction to recover its r d costs

ex day behavior with dividend preference and limitations to short term arbitrage the case of swedish lottery bonds abstract swedish lottery bonds offer a unique opportunity to study ex day effects in an environment where cash distributions are tax advantaged relative to capital gains thus in the lottery bond market we observe a reversal of the preference for capital gains that researchers have cited as an explanation for the ex day behavior of u s equities further in this market there are barriers to short term arbitrage when prices do reflect the tax preferences of individual investors we find the bonds are priced around the ex day to reflect differential tax rates on income and capital gains consistent with the prevailing tax regimes the bonds consistently experience negative returns over the coupon payment period and in fact often sell at negative yields prior to the cash distribution as one would expect given tax motivated trading between high tax investors who buy prior to the distribution and low tax investors who buy after the distribution

better together signaling interactions in new venture pursuit of initial external capital after new ventures have exhausted the limited financial resources of founders family and friends they often pursue initial external capital to secure investment entrepreneurs can signal about

structural estimation of stock market participation costs abstract this paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation where consumers decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs the practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial education programs can affect consumers investment decisions using household data from the panel study of income dynamics i estimate the magnitude of the participation cost allowing for individual heterogeneity in it the results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4 6 of labor income however it varies substantially over consumers life the model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers life cycle

the relationship between the level of capital expenditures and firm value when a firm s management needs to raise external capital in order to finance an invest ment project it is likely to have better information about the project s future return than do potential investors in such a case as has been shown in the literature management may be able to signal its information through the use of certain financial variables how ever the possibility that management may be able to use the level of investment in the project itself to signal their information has not been considered the purpose of this paper is to examine this possibility it is shown here that the level of capital investment may be able to perfectly reveal management s information with a higher input level signalling more favorable information it is further demonstrated that even in this equilibrium finan cial variables still play an important role among other results it is shown in contrast to a conclusion of a study by leland and pyle that in this setting the number of shares held by management may be negatively correlated with the favorableness of their information

getting off to a good start the effects of upper echelon affiliations on underwriter prestige the initial public offering ipo is one of the most critical events in the lifetime of a young firm prior research has shown that firms tend to have successful ipos if they go public with the endorsement of a prestigious lead underwriter this paper examines the antecedents to receiving endorsement by a prestigious underwriter and links this to the experience base of a firm s upper echelon we theorize that the amount and type of upper echelon experience serve as important symbols of a young firm s legitimacy to critical outsiders we introduce a typology of upper echelon experience that distinguishes between upper echelon upstream horizontal and downstream employment based affiliations and suggest that these different types of upper echelon affiliations allay different types of endorser concerns regarding firm legitimacy affecting the endorsement process further we theorize that the relationships between upper echelon experience and investment bank prestige will be moderated by technological uncertainty we test our assertions on a comprehensive sample of public and private biotechnology firms that were founded between 1961 and 1994 and that went public between 1979 and 1996 analyses of the five year career histories of the over 3 200 executives and directors that make up the upper echelons of these firms show that firms with upper echelons with affiliations with prominent downstream organizations i e pharmaceutical and or healthcare companies and with prominent horizontal organizations i e biotechnology companies are more likely to attract the endorsement of a prestigious investment bank we also find that the greater the range of upper echelon affiliations across the categories of upstream horizontal and downstream affiliations the more prestigious the firm s lead underwriter we also find that these latter results are moderated by technological uncertainty the present research has implications for the study of organizational legitimacy interorganizational endorsements and entrepreneurship

international business cycles and financial frictions abstract in this study i build a two country dsge model to investigate the impact of financial integration on business cycle co movements with financial frictions in this model the investor can borrow but faces a collateral constraint that is tied to the value of her capital and real estate holdings i show quantitatively that the degree of financial integration and real exchange rate adjustment are important for understanding business cycle synchronization under different types of shocks with the technology shock greater financial integration leads to lower cross country correlations while with the financial shock greater financial integration leads to stronger cross country correlations these findings are consistent with the empirical evidence from the literature

going public and the enrichment of a supportive network some evidence from italian initial public offerings past research on initial public offerings suggests that the reputation of a company positively affects the success of the offering success is usually measured in financial terms as if the essence of the operation lay only in the short term inflow of money in this paper we investigate important albeit often neglected implications of going public by combining evidence from a series of preliminary case studies taken from the results of a survey of 57 italian initial public offerings evidence from our research suggests that besides providing an important inflow of capital going public may actually improve the reputational and social capital of a company by increasing its visibility prestige and perceived trustworthiness therefore going public may be an important way to support entrepreneurial activity as it may expand and reinforce the network of relationships that offer access to external resources complementary skills and investment opportunities

the rationale of the mean standard deviation analysis skewness preference and the demand for money publisher summary this chapter discusses the rationale of the mean standard deviation analysis skewness preference and the demand for money in january 1969 issue of the review of economic studies karl borch and martin feldstein separately criticized the widely used mean variance analysis of portfolio selection borch contended that any system of upward sloping mean standard deviation e s indifference curves can be shown to be inconsistent with the basic axiom of choice under uncertainty he pointed out that one can always pick any two points on an upward sloping indifference curve to represent two bernoulli distributions with probability 1 p of gaining the same amount x in both the cases and probability p of gaining y1 in the case of one distribution and y2 in the case of the second distribution with y2 y1 if the second distribution represents the point to the northeast of the other point then by the dominance axiom the second distribution must be preferred to the first which contradicts the basic meaning of indifference curves feldstein by using a log utility function and a lognormal distribution for investment outcome showed that e s indifference curves for a risk averter need not be convex downwards though upward sloping they would change from convex to concave once the standard deviation of the outcome exceeds the mean multiplied by on the face of it this seems to suggest that risk aversion might decrease as risk is increased beyond a certain extent

the effect of green investment on corporate behavior this paper explores the effect of exclusionary ethical investing on corporate behavior in a risk averse equilibrium setting while arguments exist that ethical investing can influence a firm s cost of capital and so affect investment no equilibrium model has been presented to do so we show that exclusionary ethical investing leads to polluting firms being held by fewer investors since green investors eschew polluting firms stock this lack of risk sharing among non green investors leads to lower stock prices for polluting firms thus raising their cost of capital if the higher cost of capital more than overcomes a cost of reforming i e a polluting firm cleaning up its activities then polluting firms will become socially responsible because of exclusionary ethical investing a key determinant of the incentive for polluting firms to reform is the fraction of funds controlled by green investors in our model empirically reasonable parameter estimates indicate that more than 20 green investors are required to induce any polluting firmss to reform existing empirical evidence indicates that at most 10 of funds are invested by green investors

an examination of the influence of industry structure on eight alternative measures of new venture performance for high potential independent new ventures abstract this study examined the influence of the structure of new ventures entered industries on eight alternative measures of new venture performance for 199 high potential independent new ventures each of the 199 entrepreneurial ventures had undertaken an initial public offering ipo within the first 6 years of the venture s founding date and were free of corporate sponsorship or prior corporate parentage specifically this research examined the influence of 1 stage of the life cycle 2 industry concentration 3 entry barriers and 4 product differentiation on eight alternative measures of new venture performance the eight measures of new venture performance examined in this research consisted of 1 change in sales 2 sales level 3 net profit 4 earnings before interest and taxes 5 return on sales 6 return on assets 7 return on invested capital and 8 return on equity most prior research examining the influence of industry structure on new venture performance has 1 utilized only one or two measures of new venture performance as indicators of the venture s overall effectiveness and efficiency 2 often failed to provide theoretical justification for the measure s of new venture performance or industry structure examined and 3 utilized data derived from questionnaires and or the pims data base of corporate sponsored new ventures in addition prior industry structure studies examining independent new ventures have often utilized relatively small sample sizes this study sought to advance the progress in the field of entrepreneurship with regard to understanding the influence of the structure of new ventures entered industries on new venture performance by 1 examining eight alternative measures of new venture performance 2 providing theoretical justification for the measures of new venture performance and industry structure examined and 3 utilizing the largest nonquestionnaire data base of independent new ventures developed to date this research found that the stage of the life cycle of the venture s entered industry was the most important determinant of new venture performance among the four industry structural elements examined stage of the life cycle had a statistically significant relationship at a 0 05 level with the majority of the new venture performance measures examined in this research in addition ventures entering industries in the introductory stage of the life cycle achieved the highest levels of venture performance particularly when compared with those ventures that entered industries in the mature stage of the life cycle however this study did not find a statistically significant relationship between stage of the life cycle and change in sales this suggests that there is a trade off between profitability and sales growth and that new ventures that undertake an ipo have a stronger focus on achieving profitable operations rather than sales growth during the initial years after their ipo this may be due to pressures placed on the new ventures to achieve profitability by the external credit market conversely this research found that 1 industry concentration 2 entry barriers and 3 product differentiation did not have statistically significant relationships at a 0 10 level with any of the eight alternative measures of new venture performance examined in this research however this research did find that over 90 of the new ventures entered industries characterized by 1 a low degree of industry concentration and 2 a high degree of product differentiation the relative absence of new venture entry into industries characterized by 1 high degrees of concentration and 2 low degrees of product differentiation provides support for prior theory which suggests that successful entry into such industry environments may be substantially more difficult in sum the results of this research suggest that high potential independent new ventures that undertake an ipo should enter industries in the introductory stage of the life cycle in addition the results of this research suggest that industries characterized by 1 relatively low degrees of industry concentration and 2 highly heterogenous products may be necessary but not sufficient conditions for successful entry by high potential independent new ventures seeking to raise equity capital through an ipo

a theory of disappointment aversion an axiomatic model of preferences over lotteries is developed it is shown that this model is consistent with the allais paradox includes expected utility theory as a special case and is only one parameter beta richer than the expected utility model allais paradox type behavior is identified with positive values of beta preferences with positive beta are said to be disappointment averse it is shown that risk aversion implies disappointment aversion and that the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion can be generalized in a straight forward manner to the current framework copyright 1991 by the econometric society

university start up formation and technology licensing with firms that go public a resource based view of academic entrepreneurship abstract although academic entrepreneurship is a topic receiving some attention in the literature higher education s appetite for expanding technology transfer activities suggests that more research is needed to inform practice this study investigates the effects of particular resource sets on two university commercialization activities the number of start up companies formed and the number of initial public offering ipo firms to which a university had previously licensed a technology utilizing multisource data on 120 universities and a resource based view of the firm framework a set of university financial human capital and organizational resources were found to be significant predictors of one or both outcomes

individual preferences monetary gambles and stock market participation a case for narrow framing we argue that narrow framing whereby an agent who is offered a new gamble evaluates that gamble in isolation may be a more important feature of decision making than previously realized our starting point is the evidence that people are often averse to a small independent gamble even when the gamble is actuarially favorable we find that a surprisingly wide range of utility functions including many nonexpected utility specifications have trouble explaining this evidence but that this difficulty can be overcome by allowing for narrow framing our analysis makes predictions as to what kinds of preferences can most easily address the stock market participation puzzle

capital constraints and the performance of entrepreneurial firms in vietnam entrepreneurship has been among the key driving forces of the emergence of a dynamic private sector during the recent decades in vietnam this article addresses for vietnam the questions how capital constraints affect the performance of family firms and how entrepreneurs human and social capital interact with capital constraints to leverage entrepreneurial income a panel of 1721 firms in 4 years is used results are consistent with the resource dependency approach indicating an adverse effect of capital constraints on firm performance firms suffering capital constraints perform substantially better suggesting that they need more capital simply to finance newly recognized profit opportunities human capital plays a vital role in relaxing capital constraints and improves the entrepreneurial performance whereas the effect of social capital stemming from strong ties and weak ties is limited strong ties bring emotional support and weak ties give nonfinancial benefits from regular and useful business contacts advanced econometric analysis tools to take into account the endogeneity of capital constraints are used to establish relationships among relevant variables

social interaction and stock market participation we propose that stock market participation is influenced by social interaction in our model any given social investor finds the market more attractive when more of his peers participate we test this theory using data from the health and retirement study and find that social households those who interact with their neighbors or attend church are substantially more likely to invest in the market than non social households controlling for wealth race education and risk tolerance moreover consistent with a peer effects story the impact of sociability is stronger in states where stock market participation rates are higher

determinants of cross national knowledge transfer and its effect on firm innovation this study examines the determinants of international knowledge flow from a resource based perspective it evaluates the impact of cross national knowledge transfer on firm innovative performance based on 56 027 us patents owned by 53 selected firms in the us based pharmaceutical industry the results suggest that innovative performance is a curvilinear function of the international knowledge content used by a firm to innovate as hypothesized it was found that at 1 low and moderate levels of international knowledge content a firm s strategy to transfer international knowledge improves its innovative performance and at 2 higher levels of international knowledge content there are diminishing marginal returns to transferring knowledge from overseas

signaling through private equity placements and its impact on the valuation of biotechnology firms abstract this paper investigates how young publicly held technology firms contend with information asymmetry and the hazards it introduces to acquire the capital necessary for future growth we ascribe to the view that firms issuing private equity signal the marketplace that managers believe their growth opportunities are undervalued consistent with this view we find significant positive abnormal returns to announcements of private equity placements we develop theory suggesting that returns are determined by the timing of previous signals we also argue that the characteristics of the private placement signal specifically whether private equity is bundled with research partnerships influence the strength of the signal our results largely support our expectations

naive diversification strategies in defined contribution saving plans there is a worldwide trend toward defined contribution saving plans and growing interest in privatized social security plans in both environments individuals are given some responsibility to make their own asset allocation decisions raising concerns about how well they do at this task this paper investigates one aspect of the task namely diversification it is shown that some investors follow the 1 n strategy they divide their contributions evenly across the funds offered in the plan consistent with this naive notion of diversification it is found that the proportion invested in stocks depends strongly on the proportion of stock funds in the plan

the risk concept for entrepreneurs reconsidered new challenges to the conventional wisdom abstract this paper explores the entrepreneurial risk construct focusing on how the decision to launch a new venture may entail risks different from what is found in established firms opportunities often emerge from the creation of specialized knowledge in start ups this knowledge is characterized by concerns for rent appropriation and information asymmetry we suggest that traditional measures of risk do not properly account for these concerns hence an illusion of greater risk taking attaches itself to entrepreneurs especially if the specialized knowledge is difficult to observe we suggest alternative measures that better capture these concerns including the dilution of control when issuing equity cash burn rates etc

the effects of financial education in the workplace evidence from a survey of households abstract we use a novel household survey to investigate the effects of employer based financial education on personal saving we explore cross sectional relations between the availability of employer based financial education and various measures of asset accumulation and we interpret these patterns in light of various potentially confounding factors our findings favor the hypothesis that employer based financial education stimulates saving both in general and for retirement

the role of social capital in financial development to identify the effect of social capital on financial development we exploit social capital differences within italy in high social capital areas households are more likely to use checks invest less in cash and more in stock have higher access to institutional credit and make less use of informal credit the effect of social capital is stronger where legal enforcement is weaker and among less educated people these results are not driven by omitted environmental variables since we show that the behavior of movers is still affected by the level of social capital of the province where they were born

noncognitive abilities and financial distress evidence from a representative household panel this paper provides evidence of how noncognitive abilities affect financial distress in a representative panel of households we find that people in the bottom quintile of noncognitive abilities are 10 times more likely to experience financial distress than those in the top quintile we provide evidence that this relation largely arises from worse financial choices and lack of financial insight by low ability individuals and reflects differential exposure to income shocks only to a lesser degree we mitigate endogeneity concerns using an iv approach and an extensive set of controls implications for policy and finance research are discussed received september 24 2017 editorial decision september 26 2018 by editor stijn van nieuwerburgh authors have furnished an internet appendix which is available on the oxford university press web site next to the link to the final published paper online

behavioral portfolio theory we develop a positive behavioral portfolio theory bpt and explore its implications for portfolio construction and security design the optimal portfolios of bpt investors resemble combinations of bonds and lottery tickets consistent with friedman and savage s 1948 observation we compare the bpt efficient frontier with the mean variance efficient frontier and show that in general the two frontiers do not coincide optimal bpt portfolios are also different from optimal capm portfolios in particular the capm twofund separation does not hold in bpt we present bpt in a single mental account version bpt sa and a multiple mental account version bpt ma bpt sa investors integrate their portfolios into a single mental account while bpt ma investors segregate their port folios into several mental accounts bpt ma portfolios resemble layered pyramids where layers are associated with aspirations we explore a two layer portfolio where the low aspiration layer is designed to avoid poverty while the high aspiration layer is designed for a shot at riches

factors that determine the reputation of private equity managers in developing markets abstract this paper analyzes the relationship between investors and private equity managers in order to identify the factors that affect the latter s reputation since there are no individual references about their past returns in developing private equity markets the reputation of such players is thought to be linked to their capacity for obtaining new funds results provide evidence of the volume of investments recorded in the past the ratio of portfolio companies to investment manager the percentage of divestments carried out through initial public offerings and trade sales the membership of the national private equity association and the size of funds under management as characteristics of the highest importance in raising funds

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

us monetary policy and the global financial cycle us monetary policy shocks induce comovements in the international financial variables that characterize the global financial cycle a single global factor that explains an important share of the variation of risky asset prices around the world decreases significantly after a us monetary tightening monetary contractions in the us lead to significant deleveraging of global financial intermediaries a decline in the provision of domestic credit globally strong retrenchments of international credit flows and tightening of foreign financial conditions countries with floating exchange rate regimes are subject to similar financial spillovers

social identity and preferences social identities prescribe behaviors for people we identify the marginal behavioral effect of these norms on discount rates and risk aversion by measuring how laboratory subjects choices change when an aspect of social identity is made salient when we make ethnic identity salient to asian american subjects they make more patient choices when we make racial identity salient to black subjects non immigrant blacks but not immigrant blacks make more patient choices making gender identity salient has no effect on intertemporal or risk choices

why do entrepreneurs use franchising as a financial tool an agency explanation abstract when and why one type of entrepreneur franchisor attracts to its ventures another type of entrepreneur franchisees instead of passive investors is a central concern in entrepreneurship literature based on the informativeness principle of the principal agent model we claim that franchisees are not such an expensive financial tool as has been argued in the literature because their compensation return is more efficiently designed it directly depends on variables which are under franchisees control we therefore link agency and financial explanations for franchising most of our findings show that once the agency argument is controlled for the higher the cost of alternative funds for the franchisor estimated through different variables the more the franchisor will rely on expansion through franchising as opposed to company ownership we interpret this as a clue that franchising is also used as a financial capital source

the impact of firmspecific capabilities on the amount of capital raised in an initial public offering evidence from the biotechnology industry abstract going public has a magical sound to most entrepreneurial managers by going public the firm increases its legitimacy in the business community improves access to debt financing and creates a means of exit for major shareholders however by far the most important reason for going public is to infuse a significant amount of investment capital into the firm it is well documented that small businesses frequently fail because of insufficient funding and heavy debt loads issuing an initial public offering ipo allows entrepreneurial firms to overcome these pitfalls clearly if access to capital is the major goal of going public then the success of an offering is measured by the amount of capital raised by the firm this study presents a model of the total amount of capital raised by a firm through an ipo the explanatory variables include several indicators of the scientific capabilities of the firm including the location of the firm the quality of the research staff the number of products under development the number of patents held by the firm and the firm s prior spending on research and development r d the model is empirically tested on a sample of 92 biotechnology ipos the results provide strong support for the hypothesized positive relationship between the total amount of capital raised by a firm s ipo and the scientific capabilities of the firm our results have important implications for entrepreneurs first an entrepreneur needs to develop and send credible signals indicating the value of the firm s intangible assets to the market second the market values as deep a product pipeline as possible given a firm s resource constraints third choice of location is a key strategic decision that should not be overlooked fourth the market values firm specific capabilities and will increase the capital it is willing to invest in a firm accordingly finally the amount of capital a firm raises in its ipo can be influenced by entrepreneurial managers strategic decisions

household portfolio diversification a case for rank dependent preferences the proliferation of novel preference theories in financial economics is hampered by a lack of non experimental evidence and by the theories additional complexity which has not been shown to be critical in applications in this article i present arguments in support of preferences with rank dependency using the survey of consumer finances data i document two widespread patterns inconsistent with expected utility i many households simultaneously invest in well deversified funds and in poorly diversified portfolios of stocks and ii some households with substantial savings do not invest anything in equities i show that portfolio choice models with rank dependent preferences plausibly parameterized and under fully rational assumptions are quantitatively consistent with the observed diversification these results call for further efforts to integrate the models of rank dependent preferences in portfolio theory and asset pricing the decision theoretic literature has long acknowledged the shortcomings of the expected utility theory of von neumann and morgenstern 1944 several generalizations of the theory are inspired by the experimental evidence and aimed at improving its descriptive accuracy however there are few applications of new models of preferences in finance and expected utility continues to dominate the field 1 two principal hurdles slow the proliferation of novel preferences in financial economics first the lack of empirical non experimental or field data confirming that the behavior motivating non expected utilities is widespread outside the laboratory settings second the additional and often significant complexity of the alternative preferences which has not been shown to be critical in applications where the models based on expected utility fall short of reasonable predictions this article presents empirical and theoretical this paper was previously circulated under the title household portfolio diversification the paper has benefited from the comments of shlomo benartzi luca benzoni markus brunnermeier john dickhaut maria perozek raj singh hersh shefrin and workshop participants at minnesota finance bag lunch 2003 wharton conference household financial decision making and portfolio choice and 2003 summer meetings of econometric society i would like to thank cam harvey the editor and an anonymous referee for many helpful comments and suggestions a special thanks to jack kareken for comments and editorial help on an earlier draft i am grateful to donna zerwitz for editorial assistance the views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis or the federal reserve system all errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the author address correspondence to valery polkovnichenko finance 3 122 csom 319 19 th

using repeat challengers to estimate the effect of campaign spending on election outcomes in the u s house previous studies of congressional spending have typically found a large positive effect of challenger spending but little evidence for effects of incumbent spending those studies however do not adequately control for inherent differences in vote getting ability across candidates high quality challengers are likely to receive a high fraction of the vote and have high campaign expenditures even if campaign spending has no impact on election outcomes to avoid that bias this paper examines elections in which the same two candidates face one another on more than one occasion differencing eliminates the influence of any fixed candidate or district attributes estimates of the effects of challenger spending are an order of magnitude below those of previous studies campaign spending has an extremely small impact on election outcomes regardless of who does the spending campaign spending limits appear socially desirable but public financing of campaigns does not

external adjustment and the global crisis abstract the period preceding the global financial crisis was characterized by a substantial widening of current account imbalances across the world since the onset of the crisis these imbalances have contracted to a significant extent in this paper we analyze the ongoing process of external adjustment in advanced economies and emerging markets we find that countries whose pre crisis current account balances were in excess of what could be explained by standard economic fundamentals have experienced the largest contractions in their external balance we subsequently examine the contributions of real exchange rates domestic demand and domestic output to the adjustment process allowing for differences across exchange rate regimes and find that external adjustment in deficit countries was achieved primarily through demand compression rather than expenditure switching finally we show that changes in other investment flows were the main channel of financial account adjustment with official external assistance and ecb liquidity cushioning the exit of private capital flows for some countries

the great retrenchment international capital flows during the global financial crisis the current crisis saw an unprecedented collapse in international capital flows after years of rising financial globalization we identify the stylized facts and main drivers of this development the retrenchment in international capital flows is a highly heterogeneous phenomenon first across time being especially dramatic in the wake of the lehman brothers failure secondly across types of flows with banking flows being the hardest hit due to their sensitivity of risk perception and thirdly across regions with emerging economies experiencing a shorter lived retrenchment than developed economies our econometric analysis shows that the magnitude of the retrenchment in capital flows across countries is linked to the extent of international financial integration its specific nature with countries relying on bank flows being the hardest hit as well as domestic macroeconomic conditions and their connection to world trade flows gian maria milesi ferretti and cedric tille

why do so few hold stocks the authors investigate why 75 percent of u s households do not hold stocks despite the equity premium and predictions of expected utility models the question is relevant for privatization asset pricing and tax progressivity issues they show that risk aversion per se heterogeneity of beliefs habit persistence time nonseparability and quantity constraints on borrowing do not account for the phenomenon a wedge between borrowing and lending rates and minimum investment requirements are plausible but empirically weak factors more promising explanations are inertia and departures from expected utility maximization there is also qualified support for nondiversifiable income risk as a contributing factor copyright 1995 by royal economic society

which ties matter when the contingent effects of interorganizational partnerships on ipo success this paper investigates the contingent value of interorganizational relationships at the time of a young firm s initial public offering ipo we compare the signaling value to young firms of having ties with two types of interorganizational partnerships endorsement relationships such as those with venture capital firms and investment banks and strategic alliance partnerships we propose that under different equity market conditions potential investors in an issuing firm attend to different types of uncertainty attention to these different types of uncertainty affects investors perceptions of the relative value of a young firm s different kinds of endorsements and partnerships and hence ipo success results from a sample of young biotechnology firms show that ties to prominent venture capital firms are particularly beneficial to ipo success during cold markets while ties to prominent investment banks are particularly beneficial to ipo success during hot markets a firm s strategic alliances with major pharmaceutical health care firms did not have such contingent effects implications for understanding the contingent value of interorganizational ties are discussed copyright 2003 john wiley sons ltd

financial globalisation monetary policy spillovers and macro modelling tales from 1001 shocks abstract we hypothesise that new keynesian dsge models that do not feature powerful financial spillover channels confound the effects of domestic and foreign disturbances when confronted with the data we derive several predictions from this hypothesis and subject them to data using monetary policy shock estimates for 29 economies obtained from more than 190 structural monetary models in the literature consistent with the predictions from our hypothesis we find that monetary policy shock estimates obtained from new keynesian dsge models are in general contaminated by a common component the more so the more strongly economies are financially integrated in the data moreover we find that the common component is correlated with the actual monetary policy stance of the us and the euro area again the more so the more strongly economies are financially integrated this finding is consistent with the hypothesis that in the data federal reserve and ecb monetary policies spill over to financial conditions in small open economies through a global and regional financial cycle but that this is in general not accounted for by the new keynesian dsge models used in the literature

examining risk preferences under high monetary incentives experimental evidence from the people s republic of china several experimental sessions were conducted to elicit certainty equivalents for a sequence of lotteries involving real monetary outcomes the opportunity to conduct sessions in the people s republic of china afforded the ability to offer very large monetary incentives relative to subjects living costs in the highest payoff condition subjects earned three times their normal monthly revenue in the course of a two hour experiment results indicate a statistically significant impact of the level of monetary incentives on revealed risk preferences however even under extreme monetary incentives subjects demanded amounts well in excess of expected value for low probability gain prospects copyright 1992 by american economic association

a simple preference foundation of cumulative prospect theory with power utility most empirical studies of rank dependent utility and cumulative prospect theory have assumed power utility functions both for gains and for losses as it turns out a remarkably simple preference foundation is possible for such models tail independence a weakening of comonotonic independence which underlies all rank dependent models together with constant proportional risk aversion suffice in the presence of common assumptions weak ordering continuity and first stochastic dominance to imply these models thus sign dependence the different treatment of gains and losses and the separation of decision weights and utility are obtained free of charge

all their eggs in one basket portfolio diversification of us households abstract this paper uses data from the survey of consumer finances to assess how well mean variance efficiency describes the portfolio diversification of us households it does not seem to work well the median stockholder owns a single publicly traded stock often in the company where he works looking at a sample of high income households who accounted for one third of all publicly traded stock the median holding is only ten stocks indirect stock ownership through mutual funds defined contribution pension plans ira s and trust funds is shown to have little power in explaining this poor diversification

strategic alliances and the rate of new product development an empirical study of entrepreneurial biotechnology firms abstract a key to success in industries populated by entrepreneurial high technology firms is the rate at which the firm develops new products rapid product development creates significant advantages for entrepreneurial firms including access to early cash flows external visibility legitimacy and early market share the higher a firm s rate of new product development the more likely the firm is to achieve and maintain these first mover advantages this is particularly true in industries such as pharmaceuticals where the effectiveness of patent protections leads to patent races in which a winner take all scenario exists but even in industries where patent protection is weak the advantages of being first in terms of market preemption reputation effects experience curve effects etc can still be of major importance we argue that one way an entrepreneurial firm can increase its rate of new product development is by entering into strategic alliances with firms that possess complementary assets the basic proposition advanced is that a firm s rate of new product development is a positive function of the number of strategic alliances that it has entered however the relationship between strategic alliances and the rate of new product development may be nonlinear specifically although strategic alliances may initially have positive effects on the rate of new product development this relationship may exhibit diminishing returns moreover past some point it is possible that negative returns may set in thus the relationship between the number of alliances and the rate of new product development may be an inverted u shape two reasons can be given to support such a relationship first not all alliances will make an equal contribution to increasing the rate of new product development the economic law of diminishing returns suggests that the more alliances a firm engages in the more likely it is to enter some alliances whose marginal contribution is relatively minor such a phenomenon on its own is enough to suggest diminishing returns second gaining access to complementary assets through strategic alliances is not without risks malperformance may occur when the firm discovers that the complementary assets provided by the partner are a poor match fail to live up to the promises made by the partner or a partner may opportunistically exploit an alliance expropriating the firm s know how while providing little in return these problems arise because the effectiveness with which the firm can select and manage alliance partners is likely to be negatively related to the number of alliances the firm is managing due to information processing requirements the quality of partner search and the ability to monitor the partners actions will decline as the firm increases the number of alliances in which it is involved this reasoning leads to a prediction that past some point alliances will be increasingly vulnerable to malperformance this raises not only the possibility of diminishing returns to the number of alliances but also negative returns as the number of alliances increases past some critical point this proposed relationship between alliances and new product development was tested on a sample of 132 biotechnology firms the results provide strong evidence to support the inverted u shaped relationship between the number of strategic alliances and the rate of new product development therefore at low levels strategic alliances are positively related to new product development but as the number of alliances increases the benefits begin to decrease and at high levels the costs of an additional alliance actually outweigh the benefits

stock market aversion political preferences and stock market participation abstract we find that left wing voters and politicians are less likely to invest in stocks controlling for income wealth education and other relevant factors this finding from unique data sets in finland is robust both at the zip code and at the individual level a moderate left voter is 17 20 less likely to own stocks than a moderate right voter the results are consistent with the idea that personal values are a factor in important investment decisions in this case leading to stock market aversion the results are inconsistent with alternative explanations such as wealth effects risk aversion reverse causality return expectations or social capital

dynamic capabilities and new product development in high technology ventures an empirical analysis of new biotechnology firms abstract in industries populated by entrepreneurial high technology firms the rapid development of new products is viewed as a key determinant of success developing a portfolio of new products is necessary to gain early cash flows external visibility and legitimacy early market share and increase the likelihood of survival schoonhoven eisenhardt and lymman 1990 in addition recent research has shown that new product development improves a firm s ability to raise money through an initial public offering deeds decarolis and coombs 1997 this paper develops a model of new product development which is tested on a sample of 94 pharmaceutical biotechnology companies we hypothesize that new product development capabilities are a function of a firm s scientific technological and managerial skills to test this relationship we develop several firm specific measures in an attempt to triangulate in on the core construct of firm specific new product development capabilities some important implications for entrepreneurs managers of high technology firms flow from our results first entrepreneur managers need to view the choice of geographic location as an important strategic decision which will impact their firm s access to the skilled technical personnel and the streams of knowledge our results indicate that a choice location has a significant concentration of similar firms but the level has not yet reached a point where competition for resources in the local environment offsets any advantages of the location in the case of biotechnology this would seem to indicate that the prime locations would be expanding areas such as san diego seattle and philadelphia rather then the established locations of silicon valley and boston second as scientific knowledge plays an ever more important role in a firm s success the quality of the firm s scientific team is a critical ingredient in a firm s new product development capability but how do you evaluate the quality of scientific personnel our results indicate that there is a strong positive relationship between the impact as measured by citations of a team s prior research in the academic community and the productivity of that team in a commercial research laboratory therefore the judgement of a scientific field captured by citations or perhaps expert judgement should prove to be a useful tool when evaluating personnel for a firm s research team third the results from our measures of ceo experience and the percentage of the top management team with a ph d are interesting as expected the prior experience of ceo in managing a commercial research facility enhances a firm s new product development capabilities however results for our top management team variable appears to indicate that the over reliance on technical personnel in the management of the organization detracts from the product development process taken together these results seem to imply that it is important that the leadership of the organization have knowledge of and experience in managing the new product development process but that diverting the firm s scientific personnel s energies away from the laboratory and into the management of the organization maybe counter productive therefore what a high technology venture appears to need is leadership that understands and has experience in the new product development process but which is separate and distinct from the scientific team this type of leadership keeps the scientific team focused on research and development and out of the boardroom

moderating effects of investor experience on the signaling value of private equity placements abstract we contend that young start up firms requiring external capital are able to differentiate themselves from competitors through their choices of investors and financing mechanisms private placements of equity convey efficient signals to markets for several reasons they are short term irreversible occur after a more rigorous analysis than public offerings provide contain governance mechanisms and are generally observable by outsiders the disclosure that investors possess a superior reputation for evaluative ability conveys an additional endorsing signal of the firm s prospects this proves especially valuable for younger firms less capitalized firms and firms that have more recently received private equity from an experienced investor using an event history analysis on a sample of 329 publicly held biotechnology firms we find firms that are perceived to be more uncertain and that disclose the presence of more prominent investors are better able to attract subsequent financing

first order risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle abstract this paper integrates yaari s dual theory of choice under uncertainty into a multiperiod context and examines its implications for the equity premium puzzle an important property of these preferences is that of first order risk aversion which implies in our model that the risk premium for a small gamble is proportional to the standard deviation rather than the variance since the standard deviation of the growth rate in aggregate consumption is considerably larger than its variance the model can generate both a small risk free rate and a moderate equity premium

international currency exposures valuation effects and the global financial crisis abstract we examine the evolution of international currency exposures with a particular focus on the 2002 12 period during the run up to the global financial crisis there was a widespread shift towards positive net foreign currency positions such that relatively few countries exhibited the archetypal emerging market short foreign currency position on the eve of the global financial crisis during the crisis the upheaval in currency markets generated substantial currency generated valuation effects much of which were not reversed there is some evidence that the distribution of valuation effects was stabilizing in the sense of showing a negative covariation pattern with pre crisis net foreign asset positions