the design of environmental markets what have we learned from experience with cap and trade this article reviews the design of environmental markets for pollution control over the past 30 years and identifies key market design lessons for future applications the focus is on a subset of the cap and trade systems that have been implemented planned or proposed around the world three criteria led us to the selection of systems for review first among the broader class of tradable permit systems our focus is exclusively on cap and trade mechanisms thereby excluding emission reduction credit or offset programmes second among cap and trade mechanisms we examine only those that target pollution abatement and so we do not include applications to natural resource management such as individual transferable quota systems used to regulate fisheries third we focus on the most prominent applications those that are particularly important environmentally economically or both

computer use and earnings in britain this paper estimates various models of the effect of computer use on earnings using recent ncds data the cross section estimates are large and significant while the standard fixed effects estimates are small or insignificant the panel estimates change considerably once we allow the coefficients to differ across individuals conditional on assumptions about when individuals use computers conventional panel estimates may not identify the crucial parameters and alternative methods are needed we conclude that there was a substantial premium associated with computer use for some individuals in the uk

if not computers then what returns to computer use in the uk revisited in recent years much attention has been paid to the effect on wages of skill biased technology especially the use of computers although empirical studies have shown a positive relationship between computer use and earnings doubts have been cast on whether this is a causal relationship or merely represents unobserved other factors which are themselves positively linked to computer usage this study provides evidence that computers themselves raise wages although their impact on wages falls as other controls are included in the regression it still remains significant whilst the effect of another proxy for unobserved factors becomes insignificant furthermore improvements in computer use have an additional impact on earnings supporting the productivity interpretation

wages sorting on skill and the racial composition of jobs wages for black and white workers are substantially lower in occupations with a high density of black employees following standard controls such correlations can exist absent discrimination or as a result of discrimination in wage level equations partial correlations fall sharply after controlling for occupational skills longitudinal estimates accounting for worker heterogeneity indicate little wage change associated with changes in racial composition results support a quality sorting rather than discrimination explanation with racial density serving as an index of unmeasured skills discrimination reflected in racial wage gaps occurs within occupations or across occupations in a manner uncorrelated with racial composition

money demand and quantity constraints evidence from the soviet interview project i introduction there are more than 500 studies of money demand that use time series or pooled data but less than twenty studies that use cross section data time series studies use a limited number of aggregate variables such as income and wealth cross section studies supplement income and wealth with socioeconomic and demographic variables to provide insights that cannot be detected in aggregate data most studies of money demand are for capitalist countries only a few studies exist for socialist countries there are no cross section studies of the demand for money for socialist countries due to lack of data population censuses of the former soviet union did not provide information on household money and wealth pickersgill 1970 and millar 1987 however the soviet interview project sip survey conducted in 1983 provides a large cross section data set of former soviet citizens sip is a retrospective survey of 2793 former soviet citizens who left the soviet union for the united states during the late 1970s and early 1980s the sip survey asked respondents about their last normal period of life in the soviet union for most respondents this was in the late 1970s a period of normal functioning of the administrative command system sip provides a rich database of conventional variables and includes information on rationing eiar variables and other soviet specific variables eiar variables measure shortages participation in the underground economy and access to privileges we examine the effects of eiar factors on the demand for money in addition to conventional variables to obtain a picture of money demand near the end of the administrative command era this paper makes two contributions it is the first to examine the demand for money in a centrally planned economy using cross section data which tests variables other than income and interest rates second this study empirically investigates the effects of income on the marginal utility of income under rationing by studying how quantity constrained respondents may use trade in convertible foreign currencies or barter when income increases thereby lessening money s role as the medium of exchange the ongoing transformation of the former soviet union to a market economy and political pluralism is not an easy process for policymakers the findings of this study of the behavior of households may be useful in setting monetary policies see also collier and mokhtari 1989 ofer and vinokur 1992 mokhtari and gregory 1993 and mokhtari and asgary 1993 policymakers must know the responses of households to changes in quantity constraints underground economic activity and privileges and to other factors during the transition period and beyond moreover our findings may be useful for researchers who investigate the behavioral differences in the money demand of households in two different economic systems ii past research in the administrative command economy money is held for transaction and precautionary purposes private capital markets are absent investment decisions are made by the government money serves as a medium of exchange and income should be the prime determinant of the demand for money under these conditions money should be a necessity and the income elasticity of demand for money should be positive and less than or equal to one other than income we would expect the demand for money in the soviet union to have different determinants than in capitalist countries first capital markets are absent the interest rate is not the opportunity cost of money second consumer good shortages quantity constraints should affect the transaction and the precautionary demand for money 1 households may substitute money for goods to be able to purchase goods in the future at state prices purchase goods from the underground economy at higher prices or reduce their labor supply barro and grossman 1971 1974 1976

the labour market in the new information economy the extension of information and communication technologies to economic activity is changing the labour market in important ways this article shows that computerization and use of the internet are associated with greater hours worked as well as higher wages that it occupations are rapidly increasing their share of employment that job search and recruitment are moving rapidly to the web with consequences for matching employers and employees and possibly most important of all that trade unions have begun to use the internet as a tool for servicing members and carrying their message to the public raising the possibility of a major change in the nature of the union movement

evaluating natural resource investments notwithstanding impressive advances in the theory of finance over the past 2 decades practical procedures for capital budgeting have evolved only slowly the standard technique which has remained unchanged in essentials since it was originally proposed see dean 1951 bierman and smidt 1960 derives from a simple adaptation of the fisher 1907 model of valuation under certainty under this technique expected cash flows from an investment project are discounted at a rate deemed appropriate to their risk and the resulting present value is compared with the cost of the project this standard textbook technique reflects modern theoretical developments only insofar as estimates of the discount rate may be obtained from crude application of single period asset pricing theory but see brennan 1973 bogue and roll 1974 turnbull 1977 constantinides 1978 the inadequacy of this approach to capital budgeting is widely acknowledged although not widely discussed its obvious deficiency is its the evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices it is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing and abandoning them the approach may be adapted to a wide variety of contexts outside the natural resource sector where uncertainty about future project revenues is a paramount concern

returns to foreign languages of native workers in the european union most of the literature on returns to languages is concerned with immigrants the authors study which uses the european community household panel survey for the period 1994 2001 infers returns to non native languages by native workers in nine countries of the european union the study differs from other studies that deal with the same issue in three respects first instead of using a dummy for each language they use the ratio of the population not proficient in a given country s national language and compare the results with the more traditional approach using dummies second they correct for time independent measurement errors in self reporting and find that the resulting iv estimates are much larger than those obtained by ols they also suggest that there is little room for time persistent errors and heterogeneity and that therefore their estimates should suffer ostensibly little from unobserved ability biases finally they estimate iv quantile regressions to illustrate how returns to languages vary at different points of the distribution of earnings

equilibrium price dynamics of emission permits this article presents a stochastic equilibrium model for environmental markets that allows us to study the characteristic properties of emission permit prices induced by the design of today s cap and trade systems we characterize emission permits as highly nonlinear contingent claims on economy wide emissions and reveal their hybrid nature between investment and consumption assets our model makes predictions about the dynamics and volatility structure of emission permit prices the forward price curve and the implications for option pricing in this market empirical evidence from existing emissions markets shows that the model explains the stylized facts of emission permit prices and related derivatives

evidence on new technologies and wage inequality in france using individual data from the french labour force survey and the complementary survey on working conditions for 1998 we analyse earnings inequalities along the wage distribution between workers using novel information and communication technologies ict at their job and those not using them we estimate quantile regressions with technological dummies and carry out a decomposition analysis both at the aggregate level and by occupations at the aggregate level most of the wage gap between both populations is explained by the divergence in their labour characteristics in jobs where ict are not very diffused the technological premium is larger than in jobs characterized by a large presence of novel technologies whereas in the former type of jobs the technological premium is mainly justified by a divergence in the labour market characteristics between ict users and nonusers in positions characterized by a wide presence of novel technologies the technological premium responds rather to a divergence in

coordination cooperation contagion and currency crises we analyze the effect of trade competition international coordination and cooperation on currency crises to do this we present a micro founded model where governments have an incentive to devalue to increase the national market share in a monopolistically competitive sector currency crises generated by self fulfilling expectations are possible because private agents demand high wages when they expect a devaluation this decreases the competitiveness and profits of national firms and induces the government to devalue we show that the more important trade competition the more likely self fulfilling speculative crises are and the larger the set of multiple equilibria coordination decreases the possibility of simultaneous self fulfilling speculative crises in the region and reduces the set of multiple equilibria however regional coordination even though welfare improving makes countries more dependent on other countries fundamentals so that it may induce more contagion cooperation further reduces the set of multiple equilibria with currency crises

an interim evaluation of sulfur dioxide emissions trading ide iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments established the first large scale long term environmental program to rely on tradable emissions permitscalled allowances in this program to control pollution this program was designed to cut acid rain by reducing sulfur dioxide so2 emissions from electric generating plants to about half their 1980 level beginning in 1995 it is of interest both as a response to an important environmental issue and as a landmark experiment in environmental policy this experiment comes at a particularly important time since emission trading is under serious consideration with strong u s backing for use to deal with global climate change by curbing emissions of carbon dioxide co2 the economic stakes in climate change surpass those in acid rain by several orders of magnitude intergovernmental panel on climate change 1996 this article summarizes the results to date of our ongoing empirical analysis of compliance costs and allowance market performance under the u s acid rain program

can the mortensen pissarides model with productivity changes explain u s wage inequality this article examines whether the mortensen pissarides matching model with productivity changes can explain the time pattern of wage inequality the main finding is that the model produces counterfactual results the main source of failure seems to be the exogenous matching function and or the exogenous surplus share neither of which allows firms to use wage policies to direct workers searches

technology and the wage structure this article reports direct evidence on how technological change is related to changes in wage gaps by schooling experience and gender wage gaps by schooling increased the most in industries with rising r d intensity and accelerating growth in the capital labor ratio estimates of their relationship to high tech capital are inconclusive contrary to popular notions that technological change harms older workers wage growth of experienced workers is much greater in r d intensive industries than in industries with little r d activity the gender gap narrowed more in industries that most intensively used high tech capital in 1979

computers and the demand for skilled labour industry and establishment level panel evidence for the uk we use two united kingdom panel data sets to investigate skill upgrading in the united kingdom and how it has been affected by computerisation census data reveals that most aggregate skill upgrading is explained by within establishment rises in skill composition such upgrading is significantly related to computerisation a relation that is robust to different worker and computer types endogeneity human capital upgrading and other technology measures

time to build and the real options channel of residential investment abstract a standard real options model predicts that time to build investment could be delayed by uncertainty over future revenue we quantify the first order importance of this mechanism in the 2002 2011 housing boom bust cycle by developing and estimating a model of sequential irreversible investment with stochastic bottlenecks we find that the main driver of construction delays during the boom is construction bottlenecks however further delay in construction during the bust is caused by an increase in uncertainty which grew by 21 6 between 2002 and 2009 the model can account for more than one third of the decline in residential investment between 2002 and 2009

computer use and wages evidence from taiwan we find a significant positive relationship between computer use and wages using taiwan microdata controlling for endogeneity of computer use with simultaneous equations suggests that although ols estimates are biased upward workplace computer use increases productivity d 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

employment transitions and computer use of older workers in our work we study the role of information and communication technology ict skills and their utilization in the retirement decision we provide empirical evidence based on italian panel data in favour of the hypothesis that ceteris paribus better educated male employees with ict know how retire later such effect is stronger the longer the time horizon considered and its magnitude is remarkably larger than the one observed in us and germany in previous studies we also document that ict do not play a crucial role in the retirement decision of women our results are robust to the estimation strategy adopted

household income dynamics a four country story in this article we analyse the dynamics of household per capita incomes using longitudinal data from indonesia south africa spain and venezuela we find that in all four countries reported initial income and job changes of the head are consistently the most important variables in accounting for income changes overall and for initially poor households we also find that changes in income are more important than changes in household size and that changes in labour earnings are more important than changes in other sources of household income

social contacts and occupational choice social contacts help workers to find jobs but those jobs need not be in the occupations where workers are most productive hence social contacts can generate mismatch between a worker s occupational choice and his comparative productive advantage thus economies with dense social networks can exhibit apparently low labor force quality and as a result low returns to firms investment and depressed aggregate productivity we employ us and european data for the 1990 s to test the key prediction that social contacts distort workers occupational choices in a direction that reduces their apparent productivity we find that the use of social contacts helps find jobs one to two months sooner but leads to individual wage discounts of 5 to 7 and produces negative externalities on aggregate productivity

irreversible abatement investment under cost uncertainties tradable emission permits and emissions charges abstract a major concern with tradable emission permits is that stochastic permit prices may reduce a firm s incentive to invest in abatement capital or technologies relative to other policies such as a fixed emissions charge however under efficient permit trading the permit price uncertainty is caused by abatement cost uncertainties which affect investment under both permit and charge policies we develop a rational expectations general equilibrium model of permit trading and irreversible abatement investment to show how cost uncertainties affect investment under permits we compare the resulting investment incentive with that under charges after controlling for the assumption that random shocks affect the abatement cost linearly we find that firms investment incentive decreases in cost uncertainties but more so under emissions charges than under permits therefore tradable permits in fact may help maintain firms investment incentive under uncertainty

computers skills and wages computer technology is most prominently used by skilled high wage workers this suggests that computer use requires skills to take full advantage of the possibilities which are particularly present among relatively skilled workers this article develops a simple technology adoption model showing that the decision to adopt computer technology depends on i the tasks to be performed ii the level of skill or education and iii the level of wages applying this model to british data it is shown that the effect of wages and particular tasks on computer adoption is larger than the effect of skills on adoption the estimates suggest that in britain computer use is likely to be a matter of cost efficiency and not so much of workers skills

the economics of pollution permit banking in the context of title iv of the 1990 clean air act amendments abstract this paper presents a model of the collective emission permit banking behavior of electricity generating units affected by title iv of the clean air act amendments of 1990 a rigorous treatment of the constraint that pollution permits cannot be borrowed from future allocations is introduced this approach enables an analysis of the impact of future changes in electricity demand regulations and technologies on the present permit price and emissions level the effect of uncertainty on the banking behavior is also explored

did soviet elderly employment respond to financial incentives evidence from pension reforms abstract this study answers the open question of whether workers respond to financial incentives in a command economy to do this i evaluate pension reforms in soviet russia in 1964 and 1969 that allowed pensioners to receive a greater share of their pensions if they worked resulting in a progressive elimination of benefit reduction rates variation in group eligibility and variation in benefit reduction rates in eastern and western regions allow for the use of several difference in differences frameworks i collect and digitize novel data from the soviet archives on pensioner employment constructing the first database of the soviet old age labor market i find that soviet pensioners are responsive to financial incentives by 1969 after the benefit reduction rate fell from an average of 47 8 to 24 1 pensioner employment rates rose by 5 7 percentage points representing a 47 increase finally i provide illustrative estimates of the employment elasticity with respect to the average net of tax rate that range from 0 6 to 1 4

returning to the returns to computer use this paper re examines the returns to computer use using a new matched workplace employee data from canada we control for potential selection using instrumental variables results suggest that it is not merely the employee having a computer on his desk but rather having complementary computer skills that causes wages to increase this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

information technology and the changing workplace in canada firm level evidence recent advances in information and communication technology ict have had dramatic effects on both individual and workplace performance use of computers and the internet as general purpose technologies has spread rapidly across all sectors of the economy transforming business organization increasing competition and fostering innovation understanding the influence of ict on the dynamics of the workplace requires information on both demand and supply sides of the labor market but it is only recently that the study of both sides of the market has become feasible using linked employer employee data in this article we investigate the effects of new technology on firm productivity using the rich canadian workplace and employee survey for the period 1999 2003 we apply a mixed regression model which includes both firm and employee characteristics as well as their interactions with computer use our model allows us to control for unobserved heterogeneity at higher levels along many dimensions our findings indicate that computer use by employees has a positive and significant effect on the productivity of firms that the effect has not lost its momentum and that spillover effects are not significant moreover human capital enhances the effect of computer use on productivity but organizational changes do not interact with computer use in our sample period copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

microeconomic issues in the transition to a market economy evidence from developing countries suggests that a one sided preoccupation with macroeconomic issues may be unfortunate as macro stabilization programs tend to unravel in the presence of an inadequate micro adjustment for example kiguel and liviatan 1990 this finding is important because the socialist system introduced microeconomic distortions that probably transcend those observed in the third world the recent developments in poland yugoslavia and the soviet union also support the hypothesis that macro stabilization will be difficult to achieve in the transforming socialist economies in the absence of adequate micro adjustments in this paper i address what i consider to be the most important micro issues related to the transition from socialist to market economies i first summarize the initial microeconomic conditions and then describe the main changes that have taken place in the early stages of the transition finally i discuss the micro policy agenda that needs to be addressed if the transition is to be successful

levels of computer self efficacy computer use and earnings in china abstract levels of self efficacy in computer use were found to be positively related to computer use at work among a sample of workers in shanghai the simultaneous estimation of computer use and earnings indicated that an earnings premium for computer use accrues only to females not to males

what happens when agent t gets a computer the labor market impact of cost efficient computer adoption this paper offers a model of how computer technology has changed the labor market demonstrating that wage differentials between computer users and non users are consistent with computers first being introduced in high wage jobs following cost efficiency furthermore skill upgrading occurs following a reemphasis on non routine tasks after adoption the model also reveals that neither differences in computer skills nor complementary skills are needed to explain wage differentials between users and non users skill upgrading and the changing organization and intensity of work finally the predicted effects on the wage structure are consistent with empirical evidence

self selection via fringe benefits this paper extends the theory of self selection to circumstances in which economic agents have some access to markets we use the analysis to explain the existence of multidimensional compensation packages in the presence of limited re marketability employment contracts that include fringe benefits are prominent examples of such multidimensional packages

computerisation and wage dispersion an analytical reinterpretation the rich countries have recently seen a dramatic rise in income inequality all the more surprising because the long term trend had been toward equality this paper examines one of the leading explanations computerisation in the workplace i offer a theory of computers impact on white collar work which goes far toward explaining the timing form and locus of recent labour market changes the theory looks at the bureaucratic and organisational applications of computers that have been first largest and most influential they have two effects on firms demand for labour at different skill levels

a model of intertemporal emission trading banking and borrowing abstract this paper provides a general treatment of emission trading banking and borrowing in an intertemporal continuous time model using optimal control theory the decentralized behavior of firms is shown to lead to the least cost solution attainable under joint cost minimization explicit solutions for the time paths of emissions and permit prices are derived when firms are allowed to both bank and borrow and when firms are only allowed to bank emission permits the policy implications of emission banking and borrowing are discussed

emissions trading systems with cap adjustments abstract emissions trading systems etss with fixed caps lack provisions to address systematic imbalances in the supply and demand of permits due to changes in the state of the regulated economy we propose a mechanism which adjusts the allocation of permits based on the current bank of permits the mechanism spans the spectrum between a pure quantity instrument and a pure price instrument we solve the firms emissions control problem and obtain an explicit dependency between the key policy stringency parameter the adjustment rate and the firms abatement and trading strategies we present an analytical tool for selecting the optimal adjustment rate under both risk neutrality and risk aversion which provides an analytical basis for the regulator s choice of a responsive ets policy

the earnings of soviet workers evidence from the soviet interview project micro data gathered by the soviet interview project provide one of the first opp ortunities for western researchers to investigate the determinants of soviet earnings the data show that soviet labor markets operate in many respects like u s labor markets yet institutional differences remain the most striking institutional impact is that soviet workers are rewarded and penalized for political behavior external to the firm as in the u s education and experience are rewarded men earn more than women however the soviet pattern of returns to education is different returns to experience are lower and occupational segregation of women is less important copyright 1988 by mit press

on the dual risk model with parisian implementation delays in dividend payments abstract in this paper we study the dual compound poisson risk process which is suitable for a business that pays expenses at a constant rate over time and earns random amount of income at random times in contrast to the usual dividend barrier strategy e g avanzi gerber and shiu 2007 in which any overshoot over a pre specified barrier is paid immediately to the company s shareholders as a dividend it is assumed that dividend is payable only when the process has stayed above the barrier continuously for a certain amount of time d known as the parisian implementation delay in dassios and wu 2009 under such a modification the laplace transform of the time of ruin and the expected discounted dividends paid until ruin are derived motivated by the erlangization technique e g asmussen avram and usabel 2002 of approximating a fixed time using an erlang distribution we also analyze the case where the delay d is replaced by an erlang random variable numerical illustrations are given to study the effect of parisian implementation delays on ruin related quantities and to demonstrate the good performance of erlangization interestingly unlike the traditional barrier strategy it is found that the optimal dividend barrier maximizing the expected discounted dividends does depend on the initial surplus level

general education vocational education and labor market outcomes over the life cycle policy proposals promoting vocational education focus on the school to work transition but with technological change gains in youth employment may be offset by less adaptability and diminished employment later in life to test for this tradeoff we employ a difference in differences approach that compares employment rates across different ages for people with general and vocational education using microdata for 11 countries from ials we find strong and robust support for such a tradeoff especially in countries emphasizing apprenticeship programs german microcensus data and austrian administrative data confirm the results for within occupational group analysis and for exogenous variation from plant closures respectively

endogeneity computers language skills and wages among university graduates in vietnam one would expect that returns to supplementary skills in developing countries are considerably higher compared to those documented for developed countries as is the case with returns to schooling i derive estimates of returns to the use of computer and foreign language skills in vietnam after controlling for endogeneity using a binary instrument hypothesized to reflect reconstruction doi moi policies in vietnam i find that a the use of both computers and language skills is associated with very large earnings premiums b iv return estimates are as high as and sometimes higher than ols estimates however they should be interpreted in relation to the instrument used

computers and the changing skill intensity of jobs this paper investigates the impact of computer usage at work and other job features on the changing skills required of workers it compare skills utilization in britain at three data points 1986 1992 and 1997 using proxies for the level of skills actually used in jobs this study questions the validity of investigating the facts about and the sources of rising skills by using just educational attainment or occupational grouping data this paper finds that job skills have increased more quickly for women than for men these increases are more extensive than those captured by changes in the occupational class structure the spread of computer usage is very strongly associated with the process of upskilling and accounts in part for narrowing of the gender skills gap expanded use of quality circles is also linked to upskilling evidence for any direct role of trade in inducing skills increases is weak using the qualification held or occupation as a skills measure can lead to erroneous conclusions as to the origin of skills changes

new technologies wages and worker selection we study the effect of new technologies nt on wages and employment using a unique panel that matches data on individuals and on their firms as in the united states we show that computer users are better paid than nonusers 15 20 more but these workers were already better compensated before the introduction of the nts total returns to computer use amount to 2 measurement errors do not affect our estimates furthermore computer users are protected from job losses as long as bad business conditions do not last too long this result holds even after controlling for possible selection biases

the effects of human resource management on small firms productivity and employees wages this paper analyses whether employees and firms differently benefit from particular human resource hr practices the focus is on small firms that may be badly informed on the impact of hr practices on firm performance in this study on dutch pharmacies it is found that firms do not reward employees skills according to their contribution to firms productivity as 1 employees are over rewarded for their sector specific skills and under rewarded for the productivity enhancing effect of their computer skills and 2 employees work experience positively affects their wages but does not have real productivity effects moreover it is found that training employees in case of vacancy problems seems to be an adequate hr practice since it increases productivity without affecting the average wage level the opposite holds for offering higher wages to newly recruited employees furthermore we find that only the employees benefit from performance evaluation interviews whereas employing many employees by tem

business cycles and emission trading with banking abstract we propose an emission cap adjustment policy for an emission trading system ets that allows banking of allowances for later use and faces business cycle uncertainty the forward looking banking decisions cause a commitment problem with respect to regulator s next period allowance supply decision we tackle the commitment problem by focusing on the markov equilibrium of the policy the equilibrium policy has a surprisingly simple structure combining features from both price and quantity instruments the regulator s ability to choose a new cap for each period does not render banking obsolete but on the contrary makes banking an integral part of the equilibrium policy using data from the eu ets to calibrate the model we solve the markov equilibrium policy for the case of carbon emissions regulation and compare markov policies with and without the possibility to bank allowances a counterfactual analysis of the eu ets during the period of 2009 2013 shows that the optimal markov policy would have led to a steadier allowance price level and a stricter emission regulation than what was actually observed in the eu ets

time to build and fluctuations in bulk shipping abstract this paper explores the nature of fluctuations in world bulk shipping by quantifying the impact of time to build and demand uncertainty on investment and prices we examine the impact of both construction lags and their lengthening in periods of high investment activity by constructing a dynamic model of ship entry and exit a rich dataset of secondhand ship sales allows for a new estimation strategy resale prices provide direct information on value functions and allow their nonparametric estimation we find that moving from time varying to constant to no time to build reduces prices while significantly increasing both the level and volatility of investment jel g31 l11 l62 l92

can maternity benefits have long term effects on childbearing evidence from soviet russia this paper quantifies the effects of russia s 1981 expansion in maternity benefits on completed childbearing the program provided one year of partially paid parental leave and a small cash transfe

employment tenure and earnings profiles in japan and the united states comments the relationship between job tenure and annual earnings in japan has received considerable attention from social scientists examining employment contracts and the japanese compensation system in their widely cited article masanori hashimoto and john raisian 1985 using data for 1980 showed that japanese men have greater job tenure than comparable workers in the united states and that the earnings of japanese men rise more rapidly with increased tenure they found that an additional year of tenure increases earnings in both small and large firms in japan more than does an additional year of general market experience their results for the united states indicate that general market experience increases earnings more than an additional year of job tenure the 1970 s and 1980 s were a period of substantial change in japanese labor markets due to the rapid aging of the population and the restructuring of the economy following the oil crisis the present analysis extends the work of hashimoto and raisian by estimating earnings equations for japanese men for the years 1971 1976 1981 and 1986 specifically we wish to investigate whether hashimoto and raisian s findings have been stable over time or whether changes in the labor market have altered the importance of tenure relative to total labor market experience in the japanese labor market i changes in the labor market

what do emissions markets deliver and to whom evidence from southern california s nox trading program a perceived advantage of cap and trade programs over more prescriptive environmental regulation is that enhanced compliance flexibility and cost effectiveness can make more stringent emissions reductions politically feasible however increased compliance flexibility can also result in an inequitable distribution of pollution we investigate these issues in the context of southern california s reclaim program we match facilities in reclaim with similar california facilities also located in non attainment areas our results indicate that emissions fell approximately 24 percent on average at reclaim facilities relative to our counterfactual furthermore we find that observed changes in emissions do not vary significantly with neighborhood demographic characteristics

what do russian managers really do an observational study with comparisons to u s managers recent events have generated considerable interest but little empirical evidence in russia management this observation study of a sample of managers n 66 in a large textile factory in russia used the same definitions methodology and procedures as a stream of research conducted by luthans and his colleagues on u s real managers see luthans hodgetts and rosenkrantz 1988 similar to american managers the russian managers in this factory were observed in order to perform traditional management communications human resources and networking activities also similar to the managers studied in the u s the russian managers networking activity generally related to their success the relationship between the russian managers various activities and their effectiveness was less clear but like the american managers the communication activity was a significant predictor across analysis techniques the implications these findings have for russia s transition to a market economy are discussed

fluctuations in uncertainty this review article tries to answer four questions i what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time ii why does uncertainty vary iii do fluctuations in uncertainty matter and iv did higher uncertainty worsen the great recession of 2007 2009 on the first question both macro and micro uncertainty appears to rise sharply in recessions on the second question the types of exogenous shocks like wars financial panics and oil price jumps that cause recessions appear to directly increase uncertainty and uncertainty also appears to endogenously rise further during recessions on the third question the evidence suggests uncertainty is damaging for short run investment and hiring but there is some evidence it may stimulate longer run innovation finally in terms of the great recession the large jump in uncertainty in 2008 potentially accounted for about one third of the drop in gdp

make money surfing the web the impact of internet use on the earnings of u s workers much research on the digital divide presumes that adults who do not use the internet are economically disadvantaged yet little research has tested this premise after discussing several mechanisms that might produce differences in earnings growth between workers who do and do not use the internet we use data from the current population survey to examine the impact of internet use on changes in earnings over 13 month intervals at the end of the internet boom our analyses reveal robustly significant positive associations between web use and earnings growth indicating that some skills and behaviors associated with internet use were rewarded by the labor market consistent with human capital theory current use at work had the strongest effect on earnings in contrast to economic theory which has led economists to focus exclusively on effects of contemporaneous workplace technology use workers who used the internet only at home also did better suggesting that users may have benefited from superior

identification of endogenous social effects the reflection problem this paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group it is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups if this information is available the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent the prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population

the personal computer and entrepreneurship in contrast to the large and rapidly growing literature on information technology it investments and firm productivity we know very little about the role of personal computers in business creation using matched data from the 19972001 computer and internet usage supplements to subsequent outgoing rotation group files from the current population survey cps i explore the relationship between computer ownership and entrepreneurship trends over the past two decades provide some evidence of a positive relationship between home computers and entrepreneurship rates but the evidence is not clear in contrast an analysis of the relationship between computer ownership and entrepreneurship at the individual level provides evidence that individuals who had access to a home computer are substantially more likely to become entrepreneurs over the following 1215 months probit and bivariate probit regressions also provide evidence of a strong positive relationship between computer ownership and entrepreneurship among women but only limited evidence for men further estimates from the cps indicate that entrepreneurs who had prior access to home computers create a large variety of types of businesses and not only those in the it industry

skill biased technological change and wage inequality evidence from a plant retooling1 one of the most popular explanations for the increased wage inequality that has occurred since the late 1970s is that technological change has resulted in a downward shift in the demand for low skill workers this pattern is also alleged to account for the growth in racial inequality in wages over the same period this article reports on a case study of the retooling of a food processing plant a unique longitudinal multimethod design reveals the nature of the technological change the changes in job requirements and the mechanisms by which the changes affect the wage distribution for hourly production workers this research finds that indeed the retooling resulted in greater wage dispersion and that the changes have also been associated with greater racial inequality in wages however contrary to the claims of advocates of the skill bias hypothesis organizational and human resources factors strongly mediated the impact of the changing technology absent these high road organizational choices th

the effect of time to build on strategic investment under uncertainty we show that time to build which creates a lag between the decision to invest and production is an important element of industry structure we study a multiperiod investment game where there is demand uncertainty adding time to build to the model alters the classic tradeoff between making strategic commitments and exploiting the option to wait furthermore time to build gives rise to novel equilibria in which firms invest incrementally which contrasts with most prior work on multiperiod investment games in which firms invest only once we show how time to build affects firm heterogeneity investment timing the option value of waiting the evolution of prices and social welfare copyright 2003 by the rand corporation

home computer use and the development of human capital this paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of home computers on child and adolescent outcomes by exploiting a voucher program in romania our main results indicate that home computers have both positive and negative effects on the development of human capital children who won a voucher to purchase a computer had significantly lower school grades but show improved computer skills there is also some evidence that winning a voucher increased cognitive skills as measured by raven s progressive matrices we do not find much evidence for an effect on non cognitive outcomes parental rules regarding homework and computer use attenuate the effects of computer ownership suggesting that parental monitoring and supervision may be important mediating factors

opening the box information technology work practices and wages using 1994 95 survey data on customer service representatives in 303 u s bank branches the authors investigate the effects on wages of information technology it of work practices and of those two factors in combination offline high involvement practices measured by the presence of quality circles were related positively to wages as was more extensive use of it that supports sales efforts where it was used more extensively to automate routine processes wages were lower in branches that did not have high involvement work practices the effects are partially explained by higher education requirements and more extensive introductory training in higher wage jobs

entry and exit decisions based on a discount factor approach abstract entry and exit decisions under price uncertainty are discussed by a discount factor approach to investment the approach makes it possible to express the value of the firm as a function of a set of trigger prices at which investment takes place and to determine the optimal policy by simple maximization starting with a standard entry exit model by dixit 1989 entry and exit decisions under uncertainty journal of political economy 97 3 620 638 the paper expands to construction and scrapping decisions investment lags diminishing production capacity and limits to the number of lay up periods economic implications are investigated using experimental data and empirical shipping data

the returns to computer use revisited have pencils changed the wage structure too are the large measured wage differentials for on the job computer use a true return to computer skills or do they just reflect that higher wage workers use computers on their jobs we examine this issue with three large cross sectional surveys from germany first we confirm that the estimated wage differential associated with computer use in germany is very similar to the u s differential second we also measure large differentials for on the job use of calculators telephones pens or pencils or for those who work while sitting down we argue that these findings cast some doubt on the literal interpretation of the computer use wage differential as reflecting true returns to computer use or skill

flexibility premium of emissions permits abstract investments in abatement technology are often characterised by irreversibility and significant implementation lags whereas emissions permits can be traded at any time as such abatement and emissions permit trading systems are hardly perfect substitutes we formally study the flexibility of emissions permits and propose a unified framework to rationalise the impact of both investment divestment lags and irreversibility in relation to the price of emissions permits using option pricing concepts we reformulate the technology adoption problem in terms of the technology s characteristics irreversibility and implementation lags and offer a conceptual quantification of the flexibility premium of emissions permits

the diffusion of computers and the distribution of wages abstract when the costs are decreasing workers adopt technology at the point where the costs equal the increased productivity output per worker increases immediately while productivity benefits increase only gradually if costs continue to fall as a result workers in computer adopting labor market groups experience an immediate fall in wages due to increased supply on the other hand adopting workers experience wage increases with some delay this model explains why increased computer use does not immediately lead to higher wage inequality more specifically the results of the model are shown to be consistent with the question why within group wage inequality among skilled workers as a result of computer technology adoption in the united states increased in the 1970s while between group wage inequality and within group wage inequality among the unskilled did not start to increase until the 1980s the model also predicts that the more compressed german wage structure leads to a lagged diffusion of computer technology along with smaller changes in wage inequality our empirical analysis suggests that this is consistent with the actual developments in germany since the 1980s finally the theoretical predictions seem to be of the right magnitude to explain the empirical quantities observed in the data

the impact of advanced technology adoption on wage structures evidence from taiwan manufacturing firms we examine the impact of advanced technology adoption on wage and employment structures in taiwan using a survey of manufacturing firms that provides direct information on the use of advanced technologies we find that firms using more advanced technologies pay higher wages to both non production and production workers and employ higher fractions of non production workers controlling for the possible endogeneity of technology adoption suggests that the estimated impact of new technologies on wages is downward biased and that the effect on production workers wages may be minimal

supply constraints and housing market dynamics abstract although the volatility of house prices is often ascribed to demand side factors constraints on housing supply have important and little studied implications for housing dynamics i illustrate the strong relationship between the volatility of house prices and the regulation of new housing supply i then employ a dynamic structural model of housing investment to investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship i find that supply constraints increase volatility through two channels first regulation lowers the elasticity of new housing supply by increasing lags in the permit process and adding to the cost of supplying new houses on the margin second geographic limitations on the area available for building houses such as steep slopes and water bodies lead to less investment on average relative to the size of the existing housing stock leaving less scope for the supply response to attenuate the effects of a demand shock my estimates and simulations confirm that regulation and geographic constraints play critical and complementary roles in decreasing the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks which in turn amplifies house price volatility

time to build option value and investment decisions abstract investment decisions and outlays are often made sequentially for example the rate at which construction proceeds is usually flexible and can be adjusted with the arrival of new information traditional discounted cash flow methods which treat the pattern of investment as fixed ignore this flexibility and understate the value of the project this paper uses contingent claims analysis to derive optimal decision rules and to value such investments we determine the effects of time to build opportunity cost and uncertainty on the investment decision for reasonable parameter values we show how a simple npv rule can lead to gross errors

returns from computer use a simple test on the productivity interpretation abstract this paper finds that returns from computer use do not vary with the intensity of computer use this is evidence against the productivity interpretation of these returns and supports the view that returns from computer use can be attributed to unobserved heterogeneity

does unmeasured ability explain the higher wages of new technology workers abstract we study the impact on new technologies nt on wages using a unique data set that matches data on individuals and on their firms in his important article on the same topic krueger 1993 did not give a definitive answer to the following question if workers who use nt are better paid is it because they are abler or because nt increases their productivity we try to provide a precise answer to this question comparing cross section estimates firm effect estimates and person effect estimates we show that computer based new technologies are used by abler workers these workers appear to become more productive when they get more experienced with these nt in terms of wage differentials the introduction of computer based nt contributes to the increase but less than supposed before each year experience with computer based nt adds around 1 to the wage of workers using such techniques

offshoring the nature of tasks and occupational stability empirical evidence for germany using a large administrative data set of individual employment histories for germany this paper studies the relationship between offshoring and the individual risk of leaving the occupation moreover a rich data set on tasks performed in occupations is used to better characterise the sources of worker vulnerability both material and service offshoring are on average not associated with an increase in occupational outflow rates however this association depends on the nature of tasks performed in the occupation higher intensities of interactive and in particular non routine tasks are associated with a larger decrease or a smaller increase in the occupational hazard rate

time to build and investment the paper investigates the effect of the time to build technology on investment dynamics it explains the positive autocorrelation of investment by showing that investment is serially correlated once the time to build technology is taken into account the paper also shows that the time to build technology can explain a substantial portion of the variation in aggregate investment data using estimated marginal q the paper illustrates that investment responds asymmetrically to different levels of q a fact in favor of the irreversibility argument