trade preferences for developing countries a survey of results empirical studies of the trade and development effects of the major preferential trading schemes between the industrialised countries and the developing countries are surveyed most studies find the agreements to be trade creating improving welfare for the donor though general equilibrium analysis indicates that terms of trade deterioration offsets efficiency gains there is some evidence that trade preferences stimulate ldc exports of preferred products but total exports are not significantly affected due to limited product coverage the existing literature does not provide evidence on the degree of infant industry protection or on economic diversification of the beneficiaries

a history friendly model of the successive changes in industrial leadership and the catch up by latecomers abstract successive changes in industrial leadership between both firms and countries described here as catch up cycles have been common in several sectors this article develops a history friendly model to explore the role played by technological conditions in the emergence of such leadership changes the model is inspired by two cases where the emergence of disruptively novel technology played an important role mobile phones and semiconductors in the baseline setting the model is able to generate the benchmark case of three cycles with two leadership changes in particular the simulation analysis reveals that a the more disruptive the new technology and the lower the incumbents capabilities the greater the shake up of market shares between incumbents and latecomers b leadership change is more likely to occur when it coincides with certain responses by the actors to the technological disruption such as a high lock in behaviour on the part of incumbents and c a technology driven change of industrial leadership is more likely to occur in the presence of increasing returns to technological investments the counterfactual experiments show that different catch up dynamics can emerge depending on the magnitude of technological disruption the degree of lock ins the shape of technological landscape and incumbents initial capabilities in particular four other types of catch up cycle are generated the aborted cycle persistent leadership return of the old leadership and coexistence in leadership between latecomers and incumbents each of these cycles is identified with a specific historical case of catch up

specialisation versus diversification a simple model for tourist cities abstract by developing a simple general equilibrium structure this paper compares the welfare effects of tourism specialisation and economic diversification in tourist cities we discovered that tourist cities with limited carrying capacity easily suffer from side effects particularly dutch disease when faced with rapid tourism growth therefore such cities should actively use revenue that is generated from the booming tourism sector to pursue economic diversification for the sake of sustainable urban development

catch up cycles and changes in industrial leadership windows of opportunity and responses of firms and countries in the evolution of sectoral systems this study proposes a framework that aims to explain why successive changes in industry leadership called also the catch up cycle occur over time in a sector in catch up cycles latecomer firms and countries emerge as international leaders whereas incumbents lose their previous positions new leaders are then dethroned by newcomers to identify factors at the base of catch up cycles this article adopts a sectoral system framework and identifies windows of opportunity that may emerge during the long run evolution of an industry this study proposes three windows related to the specific dimensions of a sectoral system one dimension is related to changes in knowledge and technology the second dimension pertains to changes in demand and the third includes changes in institutions and public policy the combination of the opening of a window technological demand or institutional policy and the responses of firms and other components of the sectoral system of the latecomer and incumbent countries determines changes in industrial leadership and catch up sectors differ according to the type of windows that may open and the responses of firms and other components of systems empirical evidence of catch up cycles is presented from six sectors namely mobile phones cameras semiconductors steel mid sized jets and wines

adjusting input output models for capacity utilization in service industries abstract the input output i o models assume the stability of economic ratios and regional multipliers over the evaluation period for manufacturing sectors constant multipliers within a short term period may present a reasonable picture of the real world production function tourism industry however is composed of a variety of services in which total output and factor inputs are strongly influenced by capacity utilization cu a conceptual model is proposed in this paper which purports that shifts in cu for perishable services will lead to economies of scale in inputs price changes in the final output capacity constraint on domestic supply and substitution between input factors especially between capital and labor these factors simultaneously modify i o ratios and multipliers traditional i o analysis which assumes constant economic ratios and multipliers will therefore lead to biases in tourism impact estimates especially to value added components as it does not reflect the changing costs of operation in response to shifting supply and demand

specific and general taxation of tourism activities evidence from spain abstract this article mainly discusses whether the introduction or increase of tourism taxation should be addressed through specific or general indirect taxation with this aim the paper describes the concept of tourism taxes and presents the several reasons that back their use the paper also offers some numerical exercises comparing the effects of specific and general tourism taxation in spain a developed country with a sizeable tourism industry the article suggests that both specific and general taxes on tourism would be able to yield improvements in terms of revenues and internalization of costs without hampering the economy yet in comparative terms general indirect taxes may be a more feasible equitable and neutral way to obtain tax revenues from tourism activities

demand for rural tourism the effects of quality and information the development of rural tourism is regarded as a promising diversification strategy especially for lagging and mountainous areas of the european union research concerning the demand and or supply of rural tourism services has been limited within the agricultural economics domain despite the significance attached to rural tourism by various rural development policy measures and initiatives the article examines the expenditure behavior of rural tourists within a framework of demand for composite heterogeneous goods the proposed framework captures the quality of the tourism experience as the commodity s unit value a quantifiable economic variable examines its effects on expenditures and allows for the estimation of elasticity in prices regarding expenditure and quantity empirical analysis is facilitated by a survey recording the expenditure behavior of 465 tourists in two rural and lagging areas of greece the quality of the tourism experience is significantly and positively affected by the income the source from which information about the trip is retrieved internet newspapers as well as general press and special travel press and by the amount of information sought by the consumer prior to the trip in turn the quality of the tourism experience is the major endogenous factor that positively influences expenditures for rural tourism further research is needed before evidence provided in this work can be used to draw policy conclusions and recommendations

macrodynamic adjustment mechanisms in india abstract the dynamic interplay among food prices manufacturing profitability and investments is investigated in a macrodynamic model of india the interaction between agriculture and the rest of the economy and the role of the income distribution are emphasized the dynamic mechanisms include investment response in agriculture and manufacturing and wage indexation the sixth five year plan is used to establish a trend growth reference path for the analysis policy experiments show trade offs among growth inflation and income distribution that should be taken into account when fiscal policies and investment strategies are decided

analysis of the financial performance in the slovenian tourism economy this paper aims to analyze the difference in financial performance of the different tourism economy activities in slovenia the analysis was performed for the period 1995 2009 we analyzed the financial indicators on the basis of the official company accounts data the nominal financial data are deflated by the statistical deflator for value of inflation in order to obtain real values of financial indicators over the analyzed years we included financial indicators that are related to the business performance of enterprises in the slovenian tourism economy the research hypothesis was tested using quantitative analysis employing nonparametric kruskal wallis test and wilcoxon mann whitney test of the secondary data used the empirical analysis confirmed that there are significant differences in financial performance among different tourism economy activities in slovenia

trade facilitation and manufactured exports is africa different summary trade facilitation defined as reducing the transaction costs associated with the enforcement regulation and administration of trade policies has been at the forefront of discussions on policy measures for reducing the costs of exporting and importing in developing countries this study uses a new panel dataset for 124 developed and developing countries available for the period 2003 04 to assess the impact of trade facilitation and other trade related institutional constraints on manufacturing export performance with particular reference to africa we estimate a standard gravity model augmented with trade facilitation regulatory quality and infrastructure indicators our results show that trade facilitation reforms could contribute to improve export performance in africa but other reforms including the quality of the regulatory environment and the quality of the basic transport and communications infrastructure are also needed furthermore improvements in on the border and behind the border policies yield a higher return in terms of increasing manufacturing export performance in african countries than in the rest of the world

china s membership in the world trade organization wto and the exports of the developing economies of east asia a computable general equilibrium approach there is a general perception particularly among the developing countries of east asia that china s wto membership would spell bad news for their exports the asean countries in particular are quite concerned about its likely negative impact on their export and growth potentials in this light the main objective of this paper is to empirically assess the trade implications of china s wto membership for these countries only few studies using a computable general equilibrium cge approach have addressed the issue of china s wto membership trade implications further these studies have not adequately addressed the issue from the perspective of the developing countries of east asia particularly the asean countries using the latest version of the global trade analysis project gtap model and based on the latest tariff reduction commitments by china the results showed that contrary to the current perception and previous studies almost all of the developing countries of east asia are likely to benefi

reconsidering the estimation of the economic impact of cultural tourism the assessment of the economic benefits of cultural events is necessary to inform decision making in many cases cultural events are designed to attract tourists and the injection of tourist spending to a local economy is one of the drivers for hosting events from an economic perspective the impact of staging an event can be measured using either an expenditure multiplier or a cost benefit analysis cba approach one of the difficulties with cba is the data required to estimate the relevant benefit function this paper addresses this limitation by illustrating how benefit functions can be parameterised with minimal data thereby enhancing the possibility of using cba our approach is illustrated with a case study of an exhibition held by a regional community in australia the case study compares economic impact assessments and finds using benefit estimates as we propose provides a useful method of estimating benefits with limited data

analysis of india s policy reforms he process of major economic reforms undertaken in the indian economy has now completed six years of implementation the economy has entered into a new phase of development directed towards becoming globally competitive through opening up to trade foreign investment and technology inflows the unilateral reforms of the trade and domestic policies of india along with reforms of the tax regime since 1991 represent a significant departure from the policy framework of the previous four decades and are important to the future course of the indian economy there is an ongoing debate in india regarding the likely impacts of sectoral reforms on output employment and other variables that affect the economic wellbeing of the country s population it thus becomes important to evaluate the effects of such policy reforms on factor prices output and trade along with inter sectoral movement of resources viz land labour and capital to address these issues we use a 34 sector computable general equilibrium cge model for india though such ex ante analysis may not be replicated ex post due to various macroeconomic and other factors that our model does not capture the positive results nevertheless go a long way in establishing the credibility of the reforms process we hope therefore that our analysis will provide a more solid underpinning for the ongoing policy debate the paper proceeds as follows the policy relevance of our research is outlined in section 2 in section 3 we elaborate briefly the essential features of the india cge model the various policy scenarios are discussed in section 4 and the results are presented in section 5 in section 6 we report on the sensitivity of the model to changes in some of its essential parameters our findings are summarised in section 7

cultural industries in international business research progress and prospect cultural industries systems of organizations that produce and distribute cultural goods with substantive symbolic aesthetic or artistic value represent an important exciting and complex context that receives growing scholarly attention as the first review of management research on cultural industries this paper aims to provide a systematic synthesis of current research summarizing distinctive characteristics of cultural industries and highlighting research gaps we also illustrate how the unique nature dynamics and evolution of cultural industries provide opportunities to broaden international business theories in four research themes i e internationalization strategy cross border innovation social inclusion in the global economy and emerging market research

is subsidising tourism firms an effective use of public funds abstract this study assesses the impact of state aid on firms in the tourism sector by implementing an accurate micro econometric evaluation of their causal effect analyses consider subsidies allocated by the main regional policy in italy the law 488 1992 during the period 1999 2003 a matching difference in difference mdid estimator is applied considering the presence of selection on observable and non observable factors effects on the tourism sector are compared with those in the manufacturing industry the impacts with respect to different types of tourism destinations where tourism firms operate are also evaluated the results show higher output and employment growth but lower labour productivity dynamics in subsidised firms relative to non subsidised ones the impacts are diverse across types of tourism destinations

technological regimes catching up and leapfrogging findings from the korean industries abstract this paper examines the experiences of selected industries in korea to identify the stylized facts in the process of technological capability building and thereby to sort out the conditions for the catching up to occur to explain the process we have built a model of technological and market catching up a special attention has been given to the question of whether there has been a case of leapfrogging in any industry in korea and if so what are the conditions for its incidence in our framework we first measure the degree of catching up in terms of market shares in the world then we focus on catching up in technological capabilities in explaining the different record and prospects of korean industries in market catching up in the model technological capability is determined as a function of both technological effort and the existing knowledge base as determinants of technological effort we look at the technological regimes of the industries such as cumulativeness of technical advances fluidity predictability of technological trajectory and the properties of knowledge base using this model we explain the different technological evolution of the selected industries in korea including the d ram automobile mobile phone consumer electronics personal computer and machine tool industries we find three different patterns of catching ups path creating catching up cdma mobile phone path skipping catching up d ram and automobile and path following catching up consumer electronics personal computers and machine tools we interpret the first two case of catching up as leapfrogging unlike the argument by perez and soete perez c soete l 1988 catching up in technology entry barriers and windows of opportunity in dosi et al eds technical change and economic theory pinter publishers london we find that important r d projects except automobiles where only private r d was involved involved both private and public capacities and that entry was not driven by endogenous generation of knowledge and skills but by collaboration with foreign companies

poverty and growth impacts of high oil prices evidence from sri lanka the sharp rise in oil and food prices in 2007 and 2008 caused negative impacts on poverty and economic growth in many oil and food importing developing countries some analysts believe that these countries are under stress again due to a rise in crude oil prices to a two and a half year high in march 2011 which has also been partly responsible for higher food prices in recent months however there is a limited body of empirical evidence available from developing countries on the impact of high oil prices on growth in general and household poverty in particular in this study sri lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium cge approach is adopted as an analytical framework to explore the growth and poverty impacts of high oil prices the results suggest that urban low income households are the group most adversely affected by high global oil prices followed by low income rural households in contrast estate low income households are the least affected out of all low income households the energy intensive manufacturing sector and services sector are affected most compared to the agricultural sector

gradual catch up and enduring leadership in the global wine industry the wine industry is an extremely interesting sector from a catch up point of view because the latecomers in the international market have changed how wine is produced sold and consumed and in doing so they have challenged the positions of incumbents until the end of the 1980s the european countries and particularly france and italy dominated the international market for wine subsequently significant changes in the market namely decreases in consumption by traditional consuming countries the entry of new inexperienced consumers and the increasing importance of large distribution have threatened this supremacy initially the usa and australia and later emerging countries such as chile and south africa gained increasing market shares in both exported volumes and value at the expense of incumbents however some of these newcomers e g australia have shown slower growth opening opportunities for newer entrants such as argentina and new zealand at the same time some of the incumbents especially italy have innovated challenging the leadership of france in key markets such as the usa in this article we investigate the different catch up cycles in the global wine sector that occurred between the 1960s and 2010 through a detailed analysis of export volumes values and unit prices we address issues related to the increasing share in the global market of latecomer countries and the relative decline of the incumbents as well as possible changes in the market leadership within these two groups

public policy and catching up by developing countries in global industries a simulation model this paper examines the effects of different public policies strengthening capability building favouring firms learning protectionism and support of entry of new domestic firms on the catch up of a latecomer with respect to an incumbent country in changing and uncertain technological environments the effects of these policies are analysed with a simulation model first separately and then jointly to assess possible complementarities we reach several results first we confirm that capability building and firms learning are important drivers of catch up second we find that when a large technological discontinuity takes place entry support favours catch up while protectionism has the opposite effect protectionism favours catch up only when no technological discontinuity opens up third we find that depending on the technological conditions different policy complementarities exist therefore different policy mixes should be at the base of a country catch up strategy these results add to the previous literature on public policy and catching up by developing countries in an industry by distinguishing the different effects of various types of public policy and relating them to the technological conditions that are present in an industry

product complexity quality of institutions and the protrade effect of immigrants the paper assesses the trade creating impact of foreign born residents on the international imports and exports of the french regions where they are settled the protrade effect of immigrants is investigated along two intertwined dimensions the complexity of traded goods and the quality of institutions in partner countries the trade enhancing impact of immigrants is on average more salient when they come from a country with weak institutions however this positive impact is especially large on the imports of simple products when we turn to complex goods for which the information channel conveyed by immigrants is the most valuable immigration enhances imports regardless of the quality of institutions in the partner country regarding exports immigrants substitute for weak institutions on both simple and complex goods

evaluating tourism s economic effects new and old approaches abstract techniques such as multiplier analysis and input output analysis are still very commonly used to make estimates of the economic impact of changes in tourism expenditure these techniques have serious limitations and as a result alternative techniques have been developed to address the problems computable general equilibrium cge models are now extensively used especially in australia the uk the us and canada to estimate economic impacts of a wide variety of changes and policies across most sectors cge techniques have been used in the tourism context but so far not extensively economic evaluation in tourism thus fails to achieve best practice the paper presents arguments in support of cge modelling as the preferred technique in analysing the economic impacts of tourism and discusses its potential to drive future research in this area that is more relevant to real world tourism destinations

bank linkages and international trade abstract we uncover a new channel through which international finance is related to trade the formation of international bank linkages increases exports bank linkages are measured for each pair of countries in each year as a number of bank pairs in these two countries that are connected through cross border syndicated lending using a gravity approach to model trade for 66 countries over 24 years with a full set of fixed effects source year target year source target we find that new connections between banks in a given country pair lead to an increase in trade flows between these countries in the following year and to trade diversions from countries competing for similar imports we conjecture that the mechanism for this effect is the role bank linkages play in reducing export risk and present evidence supporting this conjecture in particular using industry level trade data and controlling for country pair year and industry fixed effects we find that new bank linkages have larger impacts on trade in industries which tend to be subject to more export risk for u s banks we can show that bank linkages are positively associated with foreign letter of credit exposures

institutions and financial development evidence from international migrants in the united states abstract we investigate the impact of institutions on financial development by analyzing the financial behavior of immigrants in the united states we find that immigrants from countries with institutions that more effectively protect private property are more likely to own stock in the united states the effect of home country institutions is persistent and absorbed early in life the impact of institutions is amplified for immigrants who live in metropolitan areas with many other immigrants from the same country these findings are robust to alternative measures of institutional effectiveness and to various methods of controlling for unobserved individual characteristics including specifications with country fixed effects

the made in effect and leapfrogging a model of leadership change for products with country of origin bias abstract change in industrial leadership is often explained in terms of technological and costs advantages however firms in emerging economies not only have to produce high quality cost competitive goods but also win the resistance of consumers in the world market who are often adverse to purchasing products from countries that yet have to build a reputation we argue that this country of origin bias significantly influences the chances of leadership change a model that aims at capturing the endogenous dynamics of demand building and leapfrogging is proposed we show that in sectors with high monopoly power acquiring a superior technology is not sufficient for a latecomer country to become leader unless a significant share of consumers is aware of the quality of its products an extension of the model to multiple sectors shows that a latecomer country remains specialized into low value undifferentiated goods even after overtaking the technology of the leading country

sectoral patterns of technical change towards a taxonomy and a theory abstract the purpose of the paper is to describe and explain sectoral patterns of technical change as revealed by data on about 2000 significant innovations in britain since 1945 most technological knowledge turns out not to be information that is generally applicable and easily reproducible but specific to firms and applications cumulative in development and varied amongst sectors in source and direction innovating firms principally in electronics and chemicals are relatively big and they develop innovations over a wide range of specific product groups within their principal sector but relatively few outside firms principally in mechanical and instrument engineering are relatively small and specialised and they exist in symbiosis with large firms in scale intensive sectors like metal manufacture and vehicles who make a significant contribution to their own process technology in textile firms on the other hand most process innovations come from suppliers these characteristics and variations can be classified in a three part taxonomy based on firms 1 supplier dominated 2 production intensive 3 science based they can be explained by sources of technology requirements of users and possibilities for appropriation this explanation has implications for our understanding of the sources and directions of technical change firms diversification behaviour the dynamic relationship between technology and industrial structure and the formation of technological skills and advantages at the level of the firm the region and the country

assessing the importance of international tourism for the turkish economy a social accounting matrix analysis abstract the international tourism sector has grown rapidly in turkey since the 1980s and turkey ranks among the top ten countries in terms of tourist arrivals and receipts previous studies on international tourism in turkey are partial equilibrium studies which emphasized the importance of the sector for foreign exchange earnings employment creation and economic growth the social accounting matrix sam modeling approach is superior to partial equilibrium analysis as it takes into account intersectoral linkages this paper analyzes the contribution of international tourism to the turkish economy using two sams for 1996 and 2002 respectively two analyses are conducted using the sam impact model i sectoral comparison of gdp elasticities and ii sam impact analysis of international tourism on output value added and employment the results show that the gdp elasticity of international tourism is relatively low and the impact of foreign tourist expenditures on domestic production value added gdp and employment in turkey are modest the results imply the possibility of leakage of foreign tourist expenditures out of the economy

insecurity and the pattern of trade an empirical investigation corruption and imperfect contract enforcement dramatically reduce international trade this paper estimates the reduction using a structural model of import demand in which insecurity acts as a hidden tax on trade we find that inadequate institutions constrain trade as much as tariffs do we also find that omission of indices of institutional quality biases the estimates of typical gravity models obscuring a negative relationship between per capita income and the share of total expenditure devoted to traded goods finally we argue that cross country variation in the effectiveness of institutions and the consequent variation in the prices of traded goods offer a simple explanation for the stylized fact that high income capital abundant countries trade disproportionately with each other

a computational general equilibrium model with endogenous unemployment an analysis of the 1980 fiscal reform in mexico abstract in this paper we develop a general equilibrium model of the mexican economy in which unemployment and government deficits play important roles the unemployment rate depends on a downwardly rigid real wage in the urban sector the government runs a deficit simply by selling bonds that consumers consider perfect substitutes for physical capital as savings instruments the model is used to analyze the impact of the 1980 fiscal reform the presence of the rigid real wage and alternative specifications of government policies regarding the size of the deficit are found to have significant effects on the comparative statics results whether or not the reform improves the welfare of rural households compared to urban households for example depends on whether government policy is to keep the deficit constant or keep expenditures constant in response to changes in tax revenues

terms of trade and class conflict in a computable general equilibrium model for mexico a computable general equilibrium model for mexico is constructed in which class conflict over the distribution of the surplus is the principal determinant of the terms of trade the model consists of seven social classes and eight productive sectors classes are distinguished as fundamental or subsumed according to whether their incomes are primarily determined by conscious class struggle or by the resulting system of relative prices flexible prices are assumed to clear markets for which non produced means of production such as agricultural land limit supply while output in the remaining sectors is determined by the level of effective demand for the latter sectors two theories of price formation are compared and are seen to differ radically in their implicit conception of the nature of class conflict a keynes kalecki closure is considered in which prices are determined by a fixed mark up on costs this enables capitalists to protect themselves from incursions on the rate of profit due to labou

a short run general equilibrium model for a small open economy abstract this paper introduces some features observed in developing countries into a cge model in particular quantitative restrictions on exports and imports are incorporated and quota derived rents are included as a source of income the economy is assumed to be small only on the import side such that export prices are endogenous a distinction between traded and treadeable goods is introduced together with the possibility of water in the tariff thus the law of one price need not hold another key feature is the modelling of supply with unutilized capacity thus excess demands clear by price changes output adjustments or imports depending on the degree of capacity utilization the tradeability of the good and the trade regime an empirical application of the model shows that in a ge context import quotas can worsen the trade balance while lowering real income and the real wage rate

bridging trade theory and labour econometrics the effects of international migration this paper surveys current theoretical and empirical research on international migration with a particular emphasis on the links between trade theory and labour empirics

computable general equilibrium models for development policy analysis in ldcs abstract the use of cge models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in ldcs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics in this survey the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted the evolution of cge modelling is discussed and more than 60 cge applications related to different policy issues in ldcs are surveyed this comprehensive survey shows that the cge models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in ldcs over the last decade or so the debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using cge models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper some of the criticisms levelled at cge models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems

short run rigidities and long run adjustments in a computable general equilibrium model of income distribution and development this paper summarizes the structure of a a computable general equilibrium model which incorporates short run disequilibrium mechanisms stemming from natural rigidities of the economic system illustrative simulations based on the venezuelan economy are reported the model seems a priori to offer a more satisfactory representation of the sequence of short run effects leading to a structural modification of the economy after some exogenous shock the adjustment is more progressive than with a pure general equilibrium model and involves quantity variables as well as price variables with the rather realistic macroeconomic specifications selected for these experiments however this double adjustment process has spillover effects that would not be found so explicitly in pure models the paper which is mainly theoretical shows simply that generalizing the available computable general equilibrium models to disequilibrium situations and price quantity adjustment mechanisms is quite possible although not easy

the economic consequences of community support for tourism a case study of a heritage fish hatchery abstract although tourist attractions are the drivers of tourism to many communities and local citizens support of these attractions is vital to their viability the economic outcomes of such support have never been assessed to help fill this information void the authors examined the unusual case of a historical attraction that was closed in 1983 by the federal government agency operating it but resurrected the following year by local citizens who considered it indispensable to their town s identity cultural heritage and tourist appeal since the attraction would not exist but for this intervention the current value of the community s resuscitation of it in 1984 was inferred from the economic impacts it currently generated in 2007 these were estimated to be about us 1 6 million in direct attraction related expenditures in the town us 2 1 million in business revenues us 629 000 in personal income us 141 000 in local and state taxes and fees and 27 new jobs

regional economic impacts of tourism the case of denmark zhang j madsen b and jensen butler c 2007 regional economic impacts of tourism the case of denmark regional studies 41 839 853 the danish interregional general equilibrium model line is presented together with its tourism submodel the model is used to analyse the importance of tourism in regional economies and to decompose regional tourism multipliers the difference between direct and derived effects is examined and by using the model the factors that determine the size of the direct effects and derived effects are identified the analysis is applied to danish regions which are divided into urban and rural regions in general the results show that tourism multipliers are larger in urban than in rural areas factors such as interregional trade commuting and shopping leakage have to be taken into consideration when evaluating the derived effects when the leakage is large the tourism multiplier tends to be small the paper also draws attention to the difference between absolute and relative

corruption product complexity and african exporters abstractseveral studies have shown that african manufacturers perform poorly especially in comparison to their counterparts from other developing countries we build on these studies by a examining the decision to stop exporting among african manufacturers and b investigating whether these decisions can be linked to institutional dimensions such as corruption consistent with previous studies we observe that a significant fraction of african firms stop exporting every year using product complexity as a measure of an industry s sensitivity to corruption we find that firms in more corruption sensitive industries are more likely to stop exporting if there is an increase in overall corruption in the exporting country firm characteristics such as size and productivity also seem to influence the decision to stop exporting our finding about the relationship between corruption and the decision to stop exporting supports the conventional wisdom that corruption is detrimental to economic performance

a general equilibrium model of structural change and economic growth with application to south korea abstract this paper presents a computable general equilibrium model for south korea it is a dynamic input output model solved by assuming equal sectoral growth rates its solution gives output and price relatives which measure the structural distance of the economy from the turnpike comparisons of these model solutions with actual output proportions and relative prices provide insights into the south korean industrialization process however the model s strict assumptions limit its applicability and provide problems of interpretation especially in open economies

rise of latecomers and catch up cycles in the world steel industry abstract this study analyzes the sources of changes in industrial leadership and catch up by latecomers in the world steel industry since world war ii the shift of leadership from the united states to japan in 1980 and the subsequent rise of korea with posco s output surpassing that of nippon steel in 1998 is explained on the basis of a single theoretical framework we rely on the neo schumpeterian concepts of sectoral innovation systems and windows of opportunity for latecomers in catching up with leading countries these windows include changing generations of technologies business cycles and demand shifts and government regulations and other interventions japan realized a path creating catch up by taking advantage of the opportunity window associated with the emergence of new technologies entering as a state owned enterprise posco engaged in stage skipping catch up by utilizing the downturn as a window of opportunity to pay low prices for expanding its facilities and updating its technologies

trade law and product complexity abstract how does the quality of national institutions that enforce the rule of law influence international trade anderson and marcouiller argue that bad institutions located in the importer s country deter international trade because they enable economic predators to steal and extort rents at the importer s border we complement this research and show how good institutions located in the exporter s country enhance international trade in particular trade in complex products whose characteristics are difficult to fully specify in a contract we argue that both exporter and importer institutions affect international as well as domestic transaction costs in complex and simple product markets international transaction costs are a part of the costs of trade domestic transaction costs affect complex and simple products differently thereby changing a country s comparative advantage in producing such goods we find ample empirical evidence for these predictions countries that have good institutions tend to

a shoven whalley model of a small open economy an illustration with philippine tariffs abstract this paper describes an applied general equilibrium model of a price taking economy in both imports and exports sector specific factors are incorporated to avoid complete specialization problems a hicksian composite traded good market is used for achieving trade balance in the model foreign and domestic goods are assumed perfect substitutes for illustration philippine tariffs and export taxes are analyzed using the model

public policies and the art of catching up matching the historical evidence with a multicountry agent based model in this paper we study the effects of industrial policies on international convergence using a multi country agent based model which builds upon dosi et al 2019b the model features a group of microfounded economies with evolving industries populated by heterogeneous firms that compete in international markets in each country technological change is driven by firms activities of search and innovation while aggregate demand formation and distribution follows keynesian dynamics interactions among countries take place via trade flows and international technological imitation we employ the model to assess the different strategies that laggard countries can adopt to catch up with leaders market friendly policies industrial policies targeting the development of firms capabilities and rd protectionist policies focusing on tariffs only we find that markets cannot do the magic in absence of government interventions laggards will continue to fall behind on the contrary industrial policies can successfully drive international convergence among leaders and laggards while protectionism alone is not necessary to support catching up and countries get stuck in a sort of middle income trap finally in a global trade war where developed economies impose retaliatory tariffs both laggards and leaders are worse off and world productivity growth slows down

garment industry in sri lanka and the removal of gsp plus by eu the ready made garment industry plays an important role in sri lanka both in terms of export earnings and poverty alleviation through employment generation following the removal of gsp plus by eu in 2010 on the basis of alleged human right violations by the sri lankan government during the last stage of the civil war in 2009 and after it currently faces serious challenges in exporting to the eu its major market given the important role of the ready made garment industry in poverty alleviation through employment generation the impact of removal of gsp plus on the poor is examined in this paper the empirical results of this study demonstrate that poverty and income inequality are expected to be exacerbated in sri lanka as a result of the removal of gsp plus by the eu using non economic reasons such as human rights violation the results are also relevant for the renewed emphasis on trade preferences as a potential instrument for the millennium development goals and the debate on how trade preferences are to be designed to maximise their effectiveness in stimulating a manufacturing supply response

the short run impact of fluctuating primary commodity prices on three developing economies columbia ivory coast and kenya abstract computable general equilibrium models are used to study the short run impact of fluctuating primary commodity prices on the economies of columbia ivory coast and kenya the results indicate that these economies are destabilized by primary commodity price fluctuations unless governments act to hold real domestic absorption constant to achieve this however would require foreign exchange reserves in excess of the level normally available to these governments for the purpose of stabilizing domestic economic activity

a quantitative framework for assessing public investment in tourism an application to haiti abstract this study develops a linked regional computable general equilibrium and micro simulation rcge ms model to assess the regional economy wide and poverty impacts of a us 36 million investment in tourism in the south of haiti the first social accounting matrix for haiti with a base year of 2012 2013 was constructed to calibrate the model this research addresses three key gaps identified in the tourism impact assessment literature first a destination specific tourism demand and value chain analysis was used to calibrate the shocks implemented in the model second the rcge ms approach moves beyond the representative household configuration to enable more robust analysis of tourism investment impacts on poverty and income inequality third results of this modeling were used to inform a social cost benefit analysis to provide greater transparency in the evaluation of trade offs between investment alternatives results of this analysis showed a positive impact on sectoral activity especially for the hotel and restaurant sector 182 1 in 2040 and a 2 0 increase in gross regional product by 2040 the south s exports fell 4 7 below baseline and imports were 6 1 higher due to the inflow of foreign exchange the appreciation of the regional real exchange rate increased demand for most goods and services and limited regional productive capacity the rate of unemployment fell from 26 to 23 the investment helped lift some of the region s poorest out of poverty reducing the poverty headcount by 1 6 percentage points driving this result was an increase in employment wages and non labor income the linked rcge ms approach proves to be a powerful tool for assessing how tourism investments affect regional economic activity and revealing the mechanisms through which tourism can contribute to increased employment opportunities and poverty reduction

trade democracy and the gravity equation abstract does democracy affect trade there are several channels by which democracy may affect trade with differing implications first democratization in the exporting country can improve product quality and reduce trade costs increasing bilateral trade second democratization in the importing country may increase trade barriers and thus reduce imports in this paper i analyze the effect of democracy on trade by augmenting the gravity equation with democracy using a rich panel data set and controlling for the endogeneity of democracy i find empirical evidence consistent with the hypothesis that democracy fosters trade this finding is robust to various econometric methods and to the use of disaggregated specifications

the impacts of temporary but anticipated tourism spending an application to the glasgow 2014 commonwealth games an extensive literature attempts to identify the economic impact of tourism expenditure while input output methods have been widely applied these may not always be appropriate for such applications and there is a growing use of more flexible computable general equilibrium cge approaches this paper uses a multi period scottish cge model to estimate the system wide effects of the temporary tourism expenditure related to the glasgow 2014 commonwealth games we quantify the sensitivity of our results to model specification focusing in particular on how investment and consumption decisions are made and shifted over time to accommodate the temporary tourism shock as part of this analysis we identify the pre announcement period that optimises the present value of the economic impact whilst the empirical results apply to a specific event our results have implications for similar analyses applied to mega events and other temporary phenomena affecting tourism expenditure such as terrorism attacks or epidemics

coordination commitment and enforcement the case of the merchant guild we interpret historical evidence in light of a repeated game model to conclude that merchant guilds emerged during the late medieval period to allow rulers of trade centers to commit to the security of alien merchants the merchant guild developed the theoretically required attributes secured merchants property rights and evolved in response to crises to extend the range of its effectiveness contributing to the expansion of trade during the late medieval period we elaborate on the relations between our theory and the monopoly theory of merchant guilds and contrast it with repeated game theories that provide no role for formal organization

macroeconomic adjustment and income distribution alternative models applied to two economies abstract to analyze the impact of alternative macroeconomic adjustment mechanisms on the distribution of income in developing countries we construct a cge model that is general enough to incorporate neoclassical neo keynesian and a variety of structuralist macro closure rules the model is applied to two economies brazil and korea with alternative macro closures both for savings investment and for the balance of trade we find that 1 the size distribution of income is largely insensitive to macro closure rules 2 the functional distribution is very sensitive to macro closure rules and 3 the balance of trade closure is at least as important in determining distributional outcomes as the savings investment closure

does tourism support supply side structural reform in china abstract a supply side structural reform ssr has been carried out in china since late 2015 with a view to reducing overproduction in selected products such as coal iron and steel this paper examines whether the development of international tourism in china could support ssr using an multi methods approach that combines an econometric model and a computable general equilibrium model it finds that the development of tourism can reduce the outputs of overcapacity industries and reallocate surplus labour to tourism related industries the calibration of 30 provincial cge models demonstrates that the impact of tourism on reform in provinces with severer industry overcapacities is much stronger this study contributes to the literature on the spillover effects of tourism on non tourism sectors through its combination of econometric and cge models practical implications are also presented

stabilisation strategies in primary commodity exporting countries a case study of chile abstract a range of stabilisation options are considered to enable the chilean economy to accomodate a reduction in world copper prices these include macroeconomic wage and trade devaluation protection export subsidies policies using a multisectoral model the paper checks the ability of these option to reach employment and current account targets while quantifying their implications for other macroeconomic and structural variables each option is efficient in some degree in meeting one target while violating the other external and internal equilibrium cannot however be simultaneously achieved without cuts in both money wages and real absorption trade policies in themselves are insufficient

sectoral systems of innovation and production the concept sectoral system of innovation and production provides a multidimensional integrated and dynamic view of sectors it is proposed that a sectoral system is a set of products and the set of agents carrying out market and non market interactions for the creation production and sale of those products a sectoral systems has a specific knowledge base technologies inputs and demand agents are individuals and organizations at various levels of aggregation they interact through processes of communication exchange co operation competition and command and these interactions are shaped by institutions a sectoral system undergoes change and transformation through the co evolution of its various elements 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

export to elude abstract how does domestic value added tax vat reform affect firms export we address this question via a model in which firms choose their sales for the domestic and foreign markets optimally the model predicts that strengthening domestic tax enforcement has a negative effect on domestic sales but a positive effect on exports when firms face a convex production cost function we test the model predictions using detailed firm and product level data from chinese industrial surveys and customs records our empirical analyses rely on china s golden tax project which is an information technology introduced in 2001 2002 that dramatically reduces the cost of vat enforcement we find that after the adoption of the technology by the government firms located far from local tax offices face a larger increase in their effective vat rates than those located nearby the enforcement effect and the former increase their export more than the latter the elusion effect we also find that the elusion effect is stronger for firms subject to higher export rebates or more severe financial constraints

measuring the economic contribution of the international association conference market an irish case study conferences and meetings are a prerequisite in the modern global economy and can contribute substantially to national income and foreign exchange earnings this study assesses the economic contribution of the international association conference market to ireland and highlights key sectors that demonstrate strong multiplier effects primary conference expenditure estimates are combined with sector multipliers to determine direct indirect and induced effects across a range of monetary aggregates in ireland in 2007 total direct conference spending of 131 1 million generated 235 8 million in output 45 4 million in income 101 6 million in value added 52 0 million in imports and 9 3 million in product taxes key conference sectors are highlighted including hotels and restaurants renting services of machinery and equipment air transport and retail shopping findings also indicate the varying nature of derived economic effects over discrete time periods particularly in the post conference period overall the results demonstrate that the conference market contributed substantially to economic aggregates in ireland in 2007

law trade and development abstract this paper uses a ricardian model to generate predictions about the influence of institutions on trade in differentiated complex and commoditized simple products and then uses a rich international trade data set for empirical tests the model draws the distinction between the role of international transaction costs and domestic production costs in the trade of complex and simple products the effects of institutions predicted by the model are identified with a three step estimation procedure we find that when countries have low quality institutions institutional reform primarily influences production costs and has little influence on the volume of trade institutional reform however increases the diversity of exports in complex goods markets conversely in countries with more developed institutions institutional reform primarily influences transaction costs and is associated with gains in the volume and the diversity of complex exports

tying trade flows a theory of countertrade with evidence a countertrade contract ties an export to an import usually countertrade is criticized as a form of bilateralism and reciprocity and thus as an inefficient form of international exchange in this paper the authors argue that there are circumstances in which the tying of two technologically unrelated trade flows may be efficiency enhancing they show that countertrade can be an efficient institution in international trade that solves moral hazard problems and restores creditworthiness of highly indebted countries the authors test the implications of their model using a sample of 230 countertrade contracts copyright 1995 by american economic association

the impacts of australia s departure tax tourism versus the economy abstract this study estimates the flow and expenditure effects of the recent increase in australia s passenger movement charge pmc as well as the economic impacts on the australian economy and the tourism industry after discussing the nature of the pmc it outlines the types of industry stakeholder concerns as to its effects on tourism both before and after the recent increase it then presents a framework developed by the authors that can be used to distinguish the effects of the increased pmc on the wider economy and on different tourism markets a computable general equilibrium model is then used to estimate the economic impacts of the increased charge on different australian tourism markets inbound outbound and domestic the implications of the modelling results for the validity of the industry criticisms of the pmc are discussed the results confirm that the tourism industry will suffer though it also indicates that the australian economy will gain thus there is a clash between the industry and wider economic interests the types of issues addressed in this paper can inform policy making regarding the gainers and losers from departure tax increases in tourism destinations generally

the collateral channel under imperfect debt enforcement does a country s ability to enforce debt contracts affect the sensitivity of economic activity to collateral values to answer this question we introduce a novel industry specific measure of real asset redeployability the ease with which real assets are transfered to alternative uses as a proxy for collateral liquidation values our measure exploits the heterogeneity of expenditures in new and used capital and the heterogeneity in the composition of real asset holdings across u s industries using a cross industry cross country approach we find that industry size and growth are more sensitive to collateral values in countries with weaker debt enforcement our estimates indicate that the differential effect is sizeable the sensitivity of economic activity to collateral values is not affected by a country s financial development once the quality of debt enforcement is accounted for we then rationalize our empirical findings based on a model of credit under imperfect enforcement and discuss an important implication of our empirical result macroeconomic volatility generated by fluctuations in collateral values is higher in countries with weaker debt enforcement institutions

informal barriers and agricultural trade does monetary integration matter eu enlargement and the recent sovereign debt crisis of euro zone countries have revived the debate around the european monetary union emu in this article we ask how informal barriers to agricultural and food trade have changed since the introduction of the common european currency and whether this evolution can be attributed to monetary integration we focus on the foreign trade of the 11 emu founder countries over a nine year period covering the creation of the emu and find a diminishing marginal trade impact of both information and institutional barriers we find a lower level of trade barriers but cannot attribute this outcome to the introduction to the euro

using surveys of business expenditure to draw inferences about the size of regional multipliers a case study of tourism in northern australia stoeckl n 2007 using surveys of business expenditure to draw inferences about the size of regional multipliers a case study of tourism in northern australia regional studies 41 917 931 using data from 429 different tourism enterprises operating in 47 different postcodes across northern australia this paper provides an empirical illustration of a novel short cut to estimating the size of multipliers associated with specific businesses in rural areas termed business level multipliers blms the estimates are mapped across space and regressed against several variables including type of enterprise number of employees and remoteness of region in which the business is operating the results show that business spending patterns vary more by remoteness than by the type of enterprise stoeckl n 2007 l emploi des enquetes sur les depenses d entreprises pour en tirer des conclusions quant a l importance des multiplicateurs regionaux etude de cas du tourisme dans l australie du nord regional stu

interactions between trade policies and domestic distortions in a small open developing country abstract this paper reports results from a price taking open economy numerical general equilibrium model of the philippines whose purpose is to explore the ways in which trade policies and other domestic distortions interact in a small open developing economy the trade policies featured in the model include tariffs export taxes and import quotas while the domestic distortions considered are rent seeking and harris todaro labour market dualism results clearly indicate that interactions between trade policies and other domestic distortions are significant and need to be more fully considered in numerical economic policy analyses for developing countries

learning and catching up in different sectoral systems evidence from six industries this article claims that catching up is a learning process that requires a long time and often differs significantly across economic sectors in the factors leading to success or failure we support these claims by examining the major factors affecting catching up by several countries in six industries india and brazil for pharmaceuticals korea china and brazil for autos india ireland israel china brazil and other countries for software korea and india for telecommunication equipment korea taiwan china and malaysia for semiconductors and china brazil costa rica and nigeria for some agricultural crops the article uses the framework of sectoral systems and argues that there are significant differences across these sectors in the variables and mechanisms involved in catching up the article identifies the common factors affecting catching up and the main differences across sectoral systems it then discusses the interplay between national systems and sectoral systems copyright 2011 the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

globalisation of the world s wine markets the research on which the paper draws was funded by the grape and wine research and development corporation the rural industries research and development corporation and the australian research council

intellectual property rights product complexity and the organization of multinational firms this paper studies how the intellectual property right ipr regime in destination countries influences the way multinationals structure the international organization of their production in particular we explore how multinationals divide tasks of dierent complexities across countries with dierent levels of ipr protection the analysis studies the decision of firms between procurement from related parties and outsourcing to independents suppliers at the product level it also breaks down outsourcing into two types by distinguishing whether or not they involve technology sharing between the two parties we combine data from a french firm level survey on the mode choice for each transaction with a newly developed complexity measure at the product level our results confirm that firms are generally reluctant to source highly complex goods from outside firm boundaries by studying the interaction between product complexity and the ipr protection we obtain that i for technology sharing outsourcing iprs promote outsourcing of more complex goods to a destination country by guaranteeing the protection of their technology ii for non technology related outsourcing iprs attract the outsourcing of less complex products that are more prone to reverse engineering and simpler to decodify and imitate

financial development and the product cycle abstract i develop a model to study how financial institution differences across countries affect the offshoring decision of northern firms and whether a product cycle arises when the only comparative advantage of northern suppliers is their access to better financial institutions a northern final good producer needs to buy an intermediate input from a supplier to complete production she can find this supplier either in the low wage but financially underdeveloped south or in the high wage and financially developed north i show that financial institution differences affect the optimal contract offered to the supplier and are enough to generate a product cycle the final good producer faces a trade off between low wages and contracting distortions when the good is new she finds it optimal to keep production in the north at the cost of a higher wage but with the benefit of a less distorted contract however as the good becomes more standardized the importance of the supplier increases and the cost of not shifting production to the south and take advantage of the lower wage offsets the contractual distortions that the underdeveloped southern financial institutions create the most salient empirical prediction is that the more r d intensive an industry is the larger is the effect of financial development on offshoring these results also hold when wages are endogenized in the empirical section the prediction is tested and confirmed using disaggregated trade data

taxing tourism and subsidizing non tourism a welfare enhancing solution to dutch disease abstract using a combined analysis of a general equilibrium and a partial equilibrium this study models the impacts of a combined policy tool based on taxing tourism and subsidizing non tourism in a tourism dependent destination the results suggest that such a policy tool while widely discussed in economics literature may not be suitable for a tourism destination as it might have adverse effects on local welfare