justice to the australians my acknowledged debt to gary j manger is so great that i fear to register any dissent lest i seem an ingrate therefore i stay with a few truths that relate to his concerns 1 1 by 1920 it was high time to replace the labor only model of ricardo mill classicism by the formal ohlin haberler and other multi factor extensions already ricardo torrens and malthus recognized that the corn laws could raise landowners share in english national income a phenomenon not relevant to the 1 factor only formal model the 1925 1931 australian discussions similarly deviated into good sense before international trade theory had in manger s happy phrase shifted intellectual gears tom kuhn must realize that in real life scientists work with more than one paradigm at a time including some still getting born and perceived 2 ohlin s recognition of oversimplification in purchasingpower theory will be seen on reflection to be logically and empirically unrelated to the inadequacies of the labor only models similarly mill s recognition that international values cannot accord with labor values is not a point against a model involving labor alonein each country it is a valid deduction about such a classical model in short as kuhn can document a new and better paradigm may be motivated by criticisms of an old paradigm that are themselves confused and even wrong 3 frederic benham s 1935 paper on how factor prices and goods prices are related is a quantum advance in the post heckscher literature his jousts with bridgen on marion samuelson s problem do not win for him from me manger s high marks but when have teachers been unanimous in making out report card grades 4 manger earns our praise for throwing new light on basic advances in the theory of international trade my reservations which are minor hope to guard against awarding excessive credit to post1938 writers

an assessment of household electricity load curves and corresponding co2 marginal abatement cost curves for gujarat state india gujarat a large industrialized state in india consumed 67 twh of electricity in 2009 10 besides experiencing a 4 5 demand supply short fall residential sector accounted for 15 of the total electricity consumption we conducted load research survey across 21 cities and towns of the state to estimate residential electricity load curves share of appliances by type and usage patterns for all types of household appliances at utility geographic appliance income and end use levels the results indicate that a large scope exists for penetration of energy efficient devices in residential sector marginal abatement cost mac curves for electricity and co2 were generated to analyze relative attractiveness of energy efficient appliance options results indicate that up to 7 9 twh of electricity can be saved per year with 6 7 mt co2 emissions mitigation at negative or very low co2 prices of us 10 t co2 despite such options existing their penetration is not realized due to myriad barriers such as financial institutional or awareness and therefore cannot be taken as baseline options for co2 emission mitigation regimes

barriers to improvements in energy efficiency the growing recognition of the potential energy savings available through improvements in energy efficiency has sparked an increased interest in the actors involved in implementing these improvements and the barriers that they can encounter this paper identifies these actors and creates a topology for the various barriers that hinder their efforts to achieve better energy efficiencies at the very lowest level of the energy consumer to the very highest level of the global financial agencies the analysis concludes that four essential factors will help facilitate the dissemination of energy efficiency improvements relying on combinations of measures for overcoming each barrier to energy efficiency using combinations of measures at the strategic level employing policy assisted market oriented mechanisms and promoting technological innovation as a means for achieving improved energy efficiency

trade protectionism in australia its growth and dismantling protection from import competition was a defining feature of the birth of the australian federation in 1901 for the next 70 years the extent of protection grew and broadened from mainly tariffs to also involving import licencing after world war ii there was a one off 25 across the board cut in tariffs in 1973 and some dismantling of agricultural subsidies but that was followed by the re imposition of import quotas for the most protected manufactured goods then in the mid 1980s a new reformist government began a long process of dismantling all protection as part of an overall economic reform program that also involved de regulation privatization and moving to a flexible exchange rate the rewards included three decades of faster economic growth and an unprecedented rise in australians living standards this paper provides a history of economic thought on the pros and cons of protectionism for the small distant natural resource rich australian economy and a survey of the literature on the extent effects and political economy reasons behind the growth of australian protection and its eventual dismantling

modelling price transmission and volatility spillover in the slovenian wheat market abstractinterdependence between first and second moments of producer and consumer wheat prices in slovenia is assessed in light of the recent major historical events that the country has undergone as well as the recent rumours of cartel agreements between millers causing a decline in farm gate prices while leaving consumer prices untouched a threshold vector error correction and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with exogenous variables is applied results indicate that price level adjustments mainly favour retailers by increasing their marketing margins important second moment interactions are also identified increases in international wheat stocks reduce producer prices while higher interest rates increase their instability

long run commodity prices economic growth and interest rates 17th century to the present day a significant proportion of the trade basket of many developing countries is comprised of primary commodities this implies relative price movements in commodities may have important consequences for economic growth and poverty reduction taking a long run perspective we examine the historical relation between a new aggregate index of commodity prices economic activity and interest rates initial empirical tests show that commodity prices present a downward trend with breaks over the entire industrial age providing clear support for the prebisch singer hypothesis it would also appear that this trend has declined at a faster rate since the 1870s conversely several gdp series such as world chile china uk and us trend upwards with breaks such trending behaviour in both commodity prices and economic activity suggests a latent common factor like technological innovation to assess the relationships between economic series we apply a stationary var vector autoregression to model movements around trends strikingly there is evidence that commodity prices granger cause income and interest rates whilst interest rates granger cause commodity prices from these results and the related impulse response function analysis the historical perspective provides some useful information for contemporary policy makers for example loose monetary policy has tended to support higher commodity prices more over commodity price movements have an asymmetric country effect on economic activity periods of falling commodity prices will support gdp growth for com modity importers like the us but depress growth for commodity exporters such as chile

summing up on the australian case for protection in 1929 a quasi official report by several eminent australian economists the australian tariff an economic inquiry by j b brigden d p copland e c dyason l f giblin and c h wickens set off analytical controversy that has helped shape the discovery of what has come to be known as modern international trade theory i had thought that this whole topic was satisfactorily understood by informed scholars and could be honorably deposited on the shelf of closed history g j manger 1976 has however uncovered some interesting puzzles since marion crawford samuelson who played a key role forty years ago in the theoretical developments is not here to consult on doubtful matters of memory i recently spent an afternoon in the harvard college libraries reviewing the principal scholarly contributions quite aside from manger s interesting issues the exercise was a rewarding one for here is a drama that involved many of the great names of our subject ricardo 1815 1823 and malthus 1815 torrens 1815 and stuart mill 1848 sidgwick 1883 edgeworth 1897 and bastable 1897 and i seem to recall nicholson and carver simon patten 1890 and taussig marshall 1879 and pigou 1906 as well as allyn young 1913 knight 1924 and robertson 1924 brigden 1925 1927a 1927b benham 1926 1927 1935 copland 1931 and frank graham 1923 heckscher 1919 and ohlin 1933 stolper and paul samuelson 1941 samuelson 1938 1939 as well as lerner 1952 and metzler 1949a 1949b karl anderson 1938 1939 and marion crawford samuelson 1939 corden 1957 reitsma 1958 1960 bhagwati and johnson 1961 vanek kemp and ronald jones 1962 and many others the story is worth telling both in its received and revised versions

volatility and price jumps in agricultural futures prices evidence from wheat options revised version published in american journal of agricultural economics vol 86 number 4 november 2004 1018 1031

boom or gloom examining the dutch disease in two speed economies traditional studies of the dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors we put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers we then identify and quantify these spillovers using a bayesian dynamic factor model the model allows for resource movements and spending effects through a large panel of variables while also identifying disturbances to other shocks using australia and norway as representative cases studies we find that a booming resource sector has substantial productivity spillovers on non resource sectors effects that have not been captured in previous analysis

international experience on incentive program in support of fuel economy standards and labelling for motor vehicle a comprehensive review abstract the road transports especially the motor vehicles play a significant role in increment of energy consumption in the transportation sector however the harmful greenhouse gas ghg emissions from such vehicles which are the main causes of global warming have been increased as well one of the effective solutions to reduce the growth rate of energy consumption is the implementation of fuel economy standard and label other countries experiences indicate that the program is very beneficial for society environment and government the hierarchy of the program consists of the test procedure fuel economy standards fuel economy label and incentive program as a peak of the program reviews of the fuel economy standard can be found in many references however a few papers deal with the incentive program specifically therefore this paper aims to give a review on the implementation of the incentive program globally in support of fuel economy standard and label for the motor vehicles finally as the incentive program is necessary to support fuel economy standard and label it should be applied to the motor vehicles as soon as possible

the political economy of resource driven growth abstract in recent decades resource poor countries have out performed resource abundant ones a stylised facts model of competitive industrialisation describes the long run development of a resource poor country with a political state that is developmental only minor change is required to adapt the model to trace the development trajectory of a resource abundant country with a similar political state however most resource abundant countries engender a political state that is factional or predatory and distorts the economy in the pursuit of rents a staple trap model describes the development trajectory under these conditions the model predicts a growth collapse from which recovery is protracted especially for small economies that lack a niche trade link with a large economy

impact of large scale energy efficiency programs on utility finances and consumer tariffs in india abstract the objective of this paper is to analyze the effect on utility finances and consumer tariffs of implementing utility funded demand side energy efficiency ee programs in india we use the state of delhi as a case study we estimate that by 2015 the electric utilities in delhi can potentially save nearly 14 of total sales we examine the impacts on utility finances and consumer tariffs by developing scenarios that account for variations in the following factors a incentive mechanisms for mitigating the financial risk of utilities b whether utilities fund the ee programs only partially c whether utilities sell the conserved electricity into spot markets and d the level of power shortages utilities are facing we find that average consumer tariff would increase by 2 2 although consumers participating in ee programs benefit from reduction in their electricity consumption while utility incentive mechanisms can mitigate utilities risk of losing long run returns they cannot address the risk of consistently negative cash flow in case of power shortages the cash flow risk is amplified reaching up to 57 of utilities annual returns and is very sensitive to marginal tariffs of consumers facing power shortages we conclude by proposing solutions to mitigate utility risks

jump processes in commodity futures prices and options pricing empirical evidence shows that log return relatives on commodity futures prices are not normally distributed this departure from normality seems to be caused by large price changes occurring in the commodity markets with the arrival of important new information this suggests that a jump diffusion model may be a plausible choice for modeling the stochastic process underlying commodity option prices merton 1976a develops a jump diffusion option pricing model assuming that jump risk is unsystematic however the jump diffusion model developed by bates 1991 is more appropriate for commodity option pricing since it allows jump risk to be systematic in this article recent transactions data on futures and futures options are used to test out of sample options using american versions of black s diffusion and bates s jump diffusion models the results show that bates s model performs considerably better than black s model jump diffusion asian option prices are also shown to differ considerably from geometric brownian motion asian option prices

the trade and welfare impact of australian quarantine policies the case of pigmeat we analyze the trade and welfare impact of quarantine measures imposed by australia on imports of pigmeat in particular we account for changes to australia s pigmeat quarantine policy over time including those changes related to the recent resolution of a wto dispute between australia and the european union using a random utility model and applying it to corner solutions in import decisions tariff equivalents by major trading partner are estimated for the different pigmeat quarantine regimes implemented by australia during the period 1988 2009 the welfare impact on consumers producers and foreign exporters is computed using a partial equilibrium model calibrated on the econometric estimates the quarantine regimes have a strong effect on trade and welfare with a tariff equivalent above 113 of average real world prices over the period analyzed

the impact of exchange rates and developing country debt on commodity prices a major feature of the international economy over the past decade has been the swings in the value of the us dollar the dollar fell to a historically low level in the late i970s but rose sharply over the period i982 4 by the beginning of i985 the dollar was generally considered to be over valued by between 2o and 40 since i985 there has been a depreciation of over one third these wide fluctuations in the value of the dollar have had implications for all major traded goods this paper focuses on the effects of changes in the value of the dollar on primary commodity prices and possible interactions between ldc indebtedness and these effects a rise fall in the value of the dollar must be expected to result in a fall rise in dollar commodity prices ridler and yandle i972 proposed a simple comparative static single commodity model to analyse the effects of exchange rate changes on the price of an individual primary commodity they showed that the commodity price change would be given by the change in an appropriately weighted exchange rate index write the price of commodityj as

dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices abstract over the past decade the sharp increases in the prices of oil and agricultural commodities have raised serious concerns about the heightened volatility of these markets and the possible negative interactions between them this article deals with the dynamic return and volatility spillovers across international energy and cereal commodity markets it also examines the impacts of three types of opec news announcements on the volatility spillovers and persistence in these markets for this purpose we make use of the var bekk garch and var dcc garch models for the daily spot prices of eight major commodities including wti oil europe brent oil gasoline heating oil barley corn sorghum and wheat our results provide evidence of significant linkages between these energy and cereal markets moreover the opec news announcements are found to exert influence on the oil markets as well as on the oil cereal relationships finally we show that the persistence of volatility decreases increases for the crude oil and heating oil gasoline returns after accounting for the opec announcements in these multivariate garch models however the results are more mixed for the cereal markets overall our results can be used to improve the risk adjusted performance by having more diversified portfolios and also serve to hedge the oil risk more effectively

jumps and volatility dynamics in agricultural commodity spot prices the spot commodities market exhibits both extreme volatility and price spikes which lead to heavy tailed distributions of price change and autocorrelation this article uses various levy jump models to capture these features in a panel of agricultural commodities observed between january 1990 and february 2014 the results show that levy jump models outperform the continuous gaussian model our results prove that assuming a constant volatility or even a deterministic volatility and drift structure of agricultural commodity spot prices is not realistic and is less efficient than the stochastic assumption the findings demonstrate an interesting correlation between volatility and jumps for a given commodity i but no relationship between the volatility of commodity i and the probability of jumps of commodity j