efficient search on the job and the business cycle the paper develops a model of directed search on the job in which transitions of workers between unemployment and employment and across employers are driven by heterogeneity in the quality of firm worker matches the equilibrium is such that the agents value and policy functions are independent of the endogenous distribution of workers across employment states hence the model can be solved outside of the steady state and used to measure the effect of cyclical productivity shocks on the labor market productivity shocks are found to generate large fluctuations in workers transitions unemployment and vacancies when matches are experience goods but not when matches are inspection goods

gender wage gaps reconsidered a structural approach using matched employer employee data in this paper we study the extent to which wage differentials between men and women can be explained by differences in productivity disparities in friction patterns segregation and wage discrimination for this purpose we propose an equilibrium search model that features rent splitting on the job search and two sided heterogeneity in productivity the model is estimated using german matched employer employee data overall the results reveal that female workers are less productive and more mobile than males in addition female workers have on average slightly lower bargaining power than their male counterparts

debt leases taxes and the endogeneity of corporate tax status we provide evidence that corporate tax status is endogenous to financing decisions which induces a spurious relation between measures of financial policy and many commonly used tax proxies using a forward looking estimate of before financing corporate marginal tax rates we document a negative relation between operating leases and tax rates and a positive relation between debt levels and tax rates this is the first unambiguous evidence supporting the hypothesis that low tax rate firms lease more and have lower debt levels than high tax rate firms many theories of capital structure imply that all else equal the incentive to use debt financing increases with a firm s marginal tax rate due to the tax deductibility of interest expense e g modigliani and miller 1963 deangelo and masulis 1980 conversely leasing models generally predict that firms with low marginal tax rates employ relatively more leases than do firms with high marginal tax rates the logic behind the leasinlg prediction is that leases allow for the transfer of tax shields from firms that cannot fully utilize the associated tax deduction lessees to firms that can lessors e g myers dill and bautista 1976 smith and wakeman 1985 ross westerfield and jaffe 1996 despite these straightforward predictions empirically testing for tax effects is difficult because a spurious relation exists between the financing decision and many commonly used tax proxies specifically both interest expense and lease payments are tax deductible thus a firm that finances its operations with debt or leases reduces its taxable income potentially lowering its expected marginal tax rate if not properly addressed this endogeneity of the tax rate can bias an experiment in favor of finding a negative

the growth potential of startups over the business cycle this paper shows that employment in cohorts of us firms is strongly influenced by aggregate conditions at the time of their entry employment fluctuations of startups are procyclical they persist into later years and cohort level employment variations are largely driven by differences in firm size rather than the number of firms an estimated general equilibrium firm dynamics model reveals that aggregate conditions at birth rather than post entry choices drive the majority of cohort level employment variation by affecting the share of startups with high growth potential in the aggregate changes in startup conditions result in large slow moving fluctuations in employment

producer cooperative resettlement projects in zimbabwe lessons from a failed agricultural development strategy abstract zimbabwe epitomizes the contradictions driving the failure of state directed agricultural development policies in its second decade of independence the government takes the credit for the country s agricultural and rural development success zimbabwe s green revolution record in africa is enviable yet this peasantry led success story is problematic it hides serious policy flaws in development strategy namely lack of performance and waste characterizing the model b producer cooperative resettlement projects individually and collectively the cooperatives the government s preferred mode of production are a complete failure lessons for development programs elsewhere and in emergent south africa in particular are clear the political economy of government assistance is not sufficient to produce agricultural surpluses and sustainable development the social economy of cooperation in production organization by africa s traditional farmers also does not necessarily translate into modern cooperatives as zimbabwe s policy makers assumed producer cooperatives are unproductive because of the prevailing organizational culture which enables leading members to seek individual self interest and private gain making it hard for the rank and file to cooperate and work for the common good

net job creation in the us economy lessons from monthly data 1950 2011 this article studies the monthly net job creation njc at the aggregate and the sectoral levels in the united states over the period 1950 to 2011 the article has few important findings first njc did not show a significant trend over the last six decades which led to a fall in the njc rate second njc was very volatile and it could change course even in the span of 1 month third there was no clear pattern about the co movement between njc and the change in the unemployment rate fourth the averages of total njc and private njc since late 2010 were significantly higher than their respective historical averages and the volatility in njc since the end of the great recession was not unusual by historical standards fifth while the evidence about the effects of the 2009 american recovery and reinvestment act on employment is inconclusive some sectors appeared to benefit from it finally the most frequent drop in the unemployment rate was by 0 1 and drops of more than 0 2 should not be highly expe

determinants of corporate leasing policy the existing finance literature assumes the real operating cash flows from leasing or owning are invariant to the ownership of the asset and focuses on tax related incentives for corporate leasing policy our analysis suggests that taxes are important in identifying potential lessees and lessors but are less important in identifying the specific assets leased we provide a unified analysis of the various incentives affecting the lease versuspurchase decision we then show how these incentives explain the use of contractual provisions such as maintenance clauses deposits options to purchase the asset and metering when a firm buys an asset it obtains both the right to the services of that asset over the period it is owned plus the right to sell the asset at any future date with a lease the firm acquires only the right to the asset s services for a period specified in the contract the existing finance literature analyzing corporate leasing policy concentrates on the tax related incentives to lease or buy e g see miller and upton 19 myers et al 21 lewellen et al 13 franks and hodges 11 and brealey and young 4 we believe that taxes play an important role in explaining certain dimensions of leasing policy for example the choice between manufacturer and third party leasing however taxes provide only a limited explanation of why specific assets are leased rather than owned and for the choice of provisions in lease contracts in this paper we want to accomplish two things 1 to provide a unified analysis of the various incentives affecting the lease versus buy decision and 2 to employ that analysis to explain observed variation in corporate leasing policy in deriving testable hypotheses about the characteristics of lessees lessors the assets leased and provisions in lease contracts we extend the standard leaseversus buy analysis found in corporate finance textbooks e g brealey and myers

sorting and the output loss due to search frictions we analyze a general search model with on the job search ojs and sorting of heterogeneous workers into heterogeneous jobs for given values of nonmarket time the relative efficiency of ojs and the amount of search frictions we derive a simple relationship between the unemployment rate mismatch and wage dispersion we estimate the latter two from standard micro data our methodology accounts for measurement error which is crucial to distinguish true from spurious mismatch and wage dispersion we find that without frictions output would be about 9 5 higher if firms can commit to pay wages as a function of match quality and 15 5 higher if they cannot noncommitment leads to a business stealing externality which causes a 5 5 drop in output

who creates jobs econometric modeling and evidence for austrian firm level data abstract this paper provides evidence on the role of firm size and firm age for firm level net job creation in the austrian economy between 1993 and 2013 and during the great recession we propose a new estimation strategy based on a two part model to decompose behavioral differences between exiting and surviving firms young firms contribute most to net job creation despite high relative exit rates due to high growth rates among young surviving firms small firms have similar job creation rates conditional on survival as large firms small firms contribution to job creation is however smaller due to higher exit rates the up or out dynamics characterizing less regulated economies such as the us also apply to the more regulated austrian economy during the great recession both the relative net job creation rate conditional on survival and the relative survival probability of young firms decreased the relative contribution of small firms to net job creation by contrast increased due to increased relative job creation rates of small firms conditional on survival

training turnover and search this article explores a model of firm specific training in a job search environment with labor turnover the main substantive finding is a positive association between training and wages when dispersed the article then precisely characterizes how both wage dispersion and firm profitability depend on the flow value b 0 of workers unmatched time it is shown that i for all high values b no equilibrium exists ii for intermediate values b multiple equilibria arise where firms earn zero profits and choose from a general wage distribution iii for all lower values b there is a unique equilibrium with firms earning positive profits and choosing from an atomless set of wages

optimal grain pricing and storage policy in controlled agricultural economies application to zimbabwe abstract maize pricing and storage policies of zimbabwe s grain marketing board are compared to those that would be optimal under certain objective function risk and risk aversion assumptions optimal producer prices and storage levels are found to be interdependent and to respond to prices at other levels of the marketing chain the ideal maize reserve stock increases with uncertainty over import transportation costs a factor to consider in light of the threat of south african sanctions but at a reasonable risk aversion level optimal reserves still are much lower than those presently held by the board

state intervention for food price stabilisation in africa can it work abstract although its arguments may have more general applicability this paper discusses the desirability and options for the stabilisation of staple food prices principally in eastern and southern africa it addresses three broad questions i why is stabilisation of food grain prices desirable ii what is technically feasible and iii can the governance and trade issues thrown up by suggested mechanisms be solved it considers a number of options for price stabilisation assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each and suggesting situations in which each may be appropriate

revisiting the behavior of small and large firms during the 2008 financial crisis abstract gertler and gilchrist 1994 provide seminal evidence for the prevailing view that adverse shocks are propagated via credit constraints small firms are affected more during tight credit periods than large firms under this view the deep recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis is often interpreted as the propagation of the initial credit shock following gertler and gilchrist 1994 s methodology we study the behavior of small and large firms during episodes of credit disruption and extend the analysis to the 2008 financial crisis and nber dated recessions we find that large firms short term debt and sales contracted relatively more than those of small firms during the 2008 financial crisis and during most recessions since 1969 the results are robust to changes in the business cycle dating procedure using compustat we also find that during 2007 09 low financially dependent firms suffered more than high financially dependent firms these results favor the view that a tightening of a financial or collateral constraint might not be a good representation of the 2007 09 crisis

separations sorting and cyclical unemployment abstract this paper establishes a new fact about the compositional changes in the pool of unemployed over the us business cycle using microdata from the current population survey for the years 1962 2012 it documents that in recessions the pool of unemployed shifts toward workers with high wages in their previous job and that these shifts are driven by the high cyclicality of separations for high wage workers the paper finds that standard theories of wage setting and unemployment have difficulty in explaining these patterns and evaluates a number of alternative theories that do better in accounting for the new fact jel e24 e32 j31 j63 j64

employment effects of financial constraints during the great recession abstract employment declined substantially during the 2007 2009 recession especially in small and young firms using confidential firm level data of the universe of firms and a difference in differences methodology this paper estimates that financial constraints reduced employment growth by 4 to 8 percentage points in small firms relative to large firms and by 7 to 9 percentage points in young relative to old firms i find that the effect of financial constraints on small firms is driven to a large extent by young firms i then document that financial constraints affected employment growth in small and young firms strongly through the entry and exit of firms

a policy agenda for pro poor agricultural growth abstract sub saharan africa and parts of south asia are likely to hold large numbers of very poor rural people into the foreseeable future although both history and theory suggest a pre eminent role for agricultural growth in poverty reduction in poor agrarian economies such growth today faces new difficulties many of these difficulties are endogenous to today s poor rural areas others result from broader processes of global change but some are due to changes in the dominant policy environment emphasizing liberalization and state withdrawal examination of 20th century green revolutions suggests that active state interventions were important in supporting critical stages of agricultural market development unfortunately such interventions benefits in institutional development are easily overlooked whereas their high costs are much more visible policy implications are discussed

did the job ladder fail after the great recession we study employment reallocation across employers through the lens ofa dynamic job ladder model workers always agree on a ranking ofemployers at all points in time and search for better jobs both offand on the job a parsimonious version of the model fits well the timeseries of gross worker flows by employer size from newly available usdata from the job openings and labor turnover survey focusing on the us experience in and around the great recession our evidence indicates that the job ladder stopped working then and has not fully resumed yet

large firm dynamics and the business cycle do large firm dynamics drive the business cycle we answer this question by developing a quantitative theory of aggregate fluctuations caused by firm level disturbances alone we show that a standard heterogeneous firm dynamics setup already contains in it a theory of the business cycle without appealing to aggregate shocks we offer an analytical characterization of the law of motion of the aggregate state in this class of models the firm size distribution and show that aggregate output and productivity dynamics display i persistence ii volatility and iii time varying second moments we explore the key role of moments of the firm size distribution and in particular the role of large firm dynamics in shaping aggregate fluctuations theoretically quantitatively and in the data

addressing food security in africa via multiple livelihood strategies of women farmers abstract because food insecurity is primarily a problem of low household incomes and poverty and not just inadequate food production projects and programs for food insecure african farmers which aim at increasing production of subsistence crops may be ineffective instead government should look for ways to improve returns to farmers resources in a broader context which may include expanded opportunities for non farm microenterprises and agricultural labor this has been the conventional wisdom since the writings of amartya sen still unclear however are the implications of his thinking for the roles of african women farmers who are traditionally the food crop producers in africa and are often food insecure immediate expansion of income earning activities such as cash cropping and non farm microenterprises may not be possible for women in male headed households in many african societies where cash income is seen as part of the male domain in addition women farmers may need a long adjustment period to diversify their income sources fully because most african countries are at the early stages of structural transformation different developmental interventions both in policy and in technology are therefore needed to address food security and economic transformations in africa in the short and long term

riskiness endogenous productivity dispersion and business cycles abstract in the data cross sectional productivity dispersion is countercyclical at both the plant level and the firm level see e g bloom 2009 i incorporate a firm s choice of risk level into a model of firm dynamics with real business cycle features to explain this empirical finding both qualitatively and quantitatively in the model in every period each firm chooses the investment amount and the risk level associated with a production project every period all projects available to each firm have the same expected flow return determined by the aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to the firm s productivity and differ from one another only in their risk the endogenous option of exiting the market and the limited funding for new investment jointly play an important role in motivating firms risk taking behavior the model predicts that in each period relatively small firms are more likely to take risk and hence exhibit a higher exit rate and that the cross sectional productivity dispersion measured as the standard deviation of the realized individual component of productivity is larger in recessions

an equilibrium model of search unemployment this paper develops a simple general equilibrium model with sequential search in which a nondegenerate wage offer distribution is endogenously determined we use this model to analyze the comparati

equilibrium search with continuous productivity dispersion theory and nonparametric estimation in this article we develop an equilibrium search model with a continuous distribution of firm productivity types within a given labor market we characterize equilibrium derive expressions for the endogenous equilibrium wage distributions and characterize the set of wage distributions that can be generated by the model we develop a structural nonparametric estimation method for the productivity distribution we estimate the model using french longitudinal survey data on labor supply and we compare the results with those from a french panel data set of firms the results are informative on the degree to which firms exploit search frictions

unemployment and small cap returns the nexus in other work moscarini and postel vinay 2008 2009a we find a distinct cyclical pattern of the relative performance of large and small businesses in terms of net job creation large employers destroy proportionally more jobs during and right after recessions and create proportionally more jobs late in expansions relative to small employers differential size growth between small and large firms is strongly positively correlated with the unemployment rate this pattern is observer both in a 1978 2005 census of u s employers the business dynamics statistics and among listed companies in compustat in this paper we show that this cyclical pattern of relative performance is also reflected in stock returns specifically we show that the difference in returns between benchmark portfolios of small cap stocks and portfolios of large cap stocks is also positively correlated with the unemployment rate financial consultants and fund managers commonly recommend investing in small cap stocks during business cycle recoveries our findings while consistent with that advice pertain to all phases of the business cycle we propose an explanation of both facts based on dynamic competition between employers of different sizes and different productivities the model is a stochastic dynamic version of the job search and wage posting model of kenneth burdett and dale t mortensen 1998 which we analyze in detail in moscarini and postel vinay 2009b it is a job ladder model where smaller firms are smaller because they are less productive offer lower wages therefore are less attractive to workers and less successful in poaching workers out of competing firms this lack of competitiveness on the labor market is more of a drawback

urban bias a fresh look focusing on non conforming cases the articles in this special issue abandon the method of stylised facts and highlight instead variation over space and time in so doing they detect errors of commission and omission in the earlier literature on urban bias they call for a focus on the economic role of political institutions the political role of markets for assets and the political significance of technical change

food marketing and pricing policy in eastern and southern africa a survey abstract this article surveys the empirical record of grain marketing and pricing policy in eastern and southern africa over 1930 1995 the paper addresses five key issues with major implications for food policy throughout africa a why the anticipated supply response to market liberalization has not yet occurred b why the common assumption of state taxation of farmers to support a cheap food policy does not apply in most of the countries in the region c why the temporary successes of the state led approach to stimulating smallholder grain production were unsustainable d why the elimination of government food subsidies associated with market reform has not adversely affected consumers and e why the fiscal cost of the marketing systems at least initially worsened rather than improved after the reforms were implemented in most countries the key future challenges for marketing policy are how to develop coordinated and financially sustainable input finance and commodity marketing systems for raising productivity growth in smallholder agriculture while overcoming inherited agricultural dualism and how to mitigate the effects of food price instability in a cost effective manner

grown up business cycles the entry rate of u s employer businesses has declined for more than 30 years we use a novel dynamic decomposition framework to show that regardless of its causes the direct effects of the continued decline in the entry rate and its delayed effects on the firm age distribution together play a major role in the slowing of trend employment growth and the emergence of jobless recoveries we identify changing demographic structure of the population and increased import competition as leading factors behind the decline in startup activity received september 1 2015 editorial decision april 5 2018 by editor francesca cornelli authors have furnished an internet appendix which is available on the oxford university press web site next to the link to the final published paper online

assessing the effectiveness of a technical assistance program the case of maize seed relief to vulnerable households in zimbabwe abstract the recent economic downturn in zimbabwe impoverished the majority of households to assist vulnerable rural households improve their food security the british department for international development implemented a seed relief program from 2003 2004 to 2005 2006 that emphasized recycling of maize open pollinated varieties opv using data collected from 597 households in six districts in 2006 this study assesses the effectiveness of the program in terms of its targeting of beneficiaries the flow of information from participating ngos to beneficiaries on the need to recycle the seeds and the level of recycling done at the end of the program the empirical results suggest that the targeting method participating ngos use inadvertently excludes relatively vulnerable households while including large proportions of relatively well endowed households in the program the choice of varieties to distribute is guided more by the ecological adaptability of available commercial seeds and less by preferences of beneficiaries notwithstanding the fact that seed selection information is critical in encouraging beneficiaries to recycle distributed seed not all of them received it in conclusion it may be stated that the program undoubtedly contributed to increased food productivity by vulnerable households but its overall effectiveness could have been enhanced through i the involvement of the beneficiaries in the choice of types of seed to be distributed ii better targeting of beneficiaries and iii improved information flow between ngos and beneficiaries

the effectiveness of hiring credits this article analyses the effectiveness of hiring credits using comprehensive administrative data we show that the french hiring credit implemented during the great recession had significant positive employment effects and no effects on wages relying on the quasi experimental variation in labour cost triggered by the hiring credit we estimate a structural search and matching model simulations of counterfactual policies show that the effectiveness of the hiring credit relied to a large extent on three features it was non anticipated temporary and targeted at jobs with rigid wages we estimate that the cost per job created by permanent hiring credits either countercyclical or time invariant in an environment with flexible wages would have been much higher

on the existence of an optimal capital structure theory and evidence one of the most contentious issues in the theory of finance during the past quarter century has been the theory of capital structure the geneses of this controversy were the seminal contributions by modigliani and miller 18 19 the general academic view by the mid 1970s although not a consensus was that the optimal capital structure involves balancing the tax advantage of debt against the present value of bankruptcy costs no sooner did this general view become prevalent in the profession than miller 16 presented a new challenge by showing that under certain conditions the tax advantage of debt financing at the firm level is exactly offset by the tax disadvantage of debt at the personal level since then there has developed a burgeoning theoretical literature attempting to reconcile miller s model with the balancing theory of optimal capital structure e g deangelo and masulis 5 kim 12 and modigliani 17 the general result of this work is that if there are significant leverage related costs such as bankruptcy costs agency costs of debt and loss of non debt tax shields and if the income from equity is untaxed then the marginal bondholder s tax rate will be less than the corporate rate and there will be a positive net tax advantage to corporate debt financing the firm s optimal capital structure will involve the trade off between the tax advantage of debt and various leverage related costs the upshot of these extensions of miller s model is the recognition that the existence of an optimal capital structure is essentially an empirical issue as to whether or not the various leverage related costs are economically significant enough to influence the costs of corporate borrowing the miller model and its theoretical extensions have inspired several timeseries studies which provide evidence on the existence of leverage related costs trczinka 28 reports that from examining differences in average yields between taxable corporate bonds and tax exempt municipal bonds one cannot reject the miller hypothesis that the marginal bondholder s tax rate is not different from the corporate tax rate however trczinka is careful to point out that this finding does not necessarily imply that there is no tax advantage of corporate debt if the personal tax rate on equity is positive indeed buser and hess 1 using a longer time series of data and more sophisticated econometric techniques estimate that the average effective personal tax rate on equity is statistically positive and is not of a trivial magnitude more importantly they document evidence that is consistent with the existence of significant leverage related costs in the economy

credit risk in the leasing industry abstract this paper is devoted to the credit risk modeling issues of retail lease portfolios using a re sampling method i estimate the probability density function of losses and var measures in a portfolio of 46 732 leases issued between 1990 and 2000 by a major european financial institution my results show that physical collaterals play a major role in reducing the credit risk associated with lease portfolios however because of insufficient recognition of such collaterals under the new regulatory capital framework basel ii significant differences are observed between the estimated capital requirements and those calculated in accordance with the various basel ii approaches

equilibrium price distributions equilibrium price distributions for a homogeneous product consistent with individual incentives are investigated they arise in informationally imperfect markets in which the only primitive datum is the distribution of search costs it is shown that single multi and continuous price distributions are all viable long run phenomena depending on the nature of search costs a method for computing equilibrium price distributions is also provided jevons law of one price has long been an accepted dictum in economic theory in a classroom presentation it still serves sometimes implicitly as a major premise in many micro models of market interaction much of the descriptive theory as well as welfare analysis hinges on this assumption yet one s day to day experience reveals that price differentials are a viable phenomenon and that looking for lower prices may very well be a rewarding activity the prospects of eventually hitting a bargain and the resulting price reduction would more than compensate for the cost incurred during the search process moreover the existence of price dispersions appear to be an empirically stable phenomenon snapshots of markets for relatively homogeneous products reveal substantial and recurring price differentials stigler 1961 and pratt wise and zeckhauser 1979 for example report some evidence supporting this claim an important article by stigler 1961 focused economists attention on the crucial role played by the informational structure of markets it gave rise to the study of the

maize food self sufficiency and policy in east and southern africa abstract in recent years maize has become a major food staple in the east and southern african region national average yields of maize remain low and yield gains are generally below population growth rates agricultural policy particularly maize pricing marketing and trade is examined and it is noted that despite an objective of maize self sufficiency many countries in the region continue to face erratic supplies finally a brief look is taken at the technologies available for maize and at those groups of smallholders who are unable to meet their annual household food requirements

the growth of multinational firms in the great recession abstract using a large firm level dataset this paper studies multinational firms performance during the great recession foreign multinationals grew faster than local firms outside of the crisis but slower during the crisis industry and size differences between domestic and foreign owned firms account for much of this slowdown however multinationals from different countries performed differently during the crisis the paper then assesses the role of multinationals in the global recession using a quantitative model had multinationals relative performance remained unchanged during the crisis the median country s aggregate growth would have been 0 12 higher with a range of 0 13 to 0 5 across countries

building african scientific capacity for agricultural development abstract during africa s first two decades of independence from 1960 to 1980 priority was given to increasing the size of national extension services because it was assumed that technology could be imported from industrial countries and the international agricultural research centers over the past decade donors have turned their attention to assisting national agricultural research systems nars but many nars are performing poorly and are faced with a high turnover of scientific staff and inadequate operating budgets moreover the present donor financed project by project and country by country approach to building african scientific capacity is seriously flawed this paper examines africa s agricultural research history over the past six decades and draws lessons for strengthening national and regional agricultural research systems over the coming 30 years

modern input promotion in sub saharan africa insights from asian green revolution using case materials from four major cereal growing countries in asia bangladesh india indonesia and pakistan the article analyzes key aspects of agricultural input policies in asia results suggest that asian policies differ from the current wave of african input subsidy programs in three important ways i instead of focusing mostly on seed and chemical fertilizer input promotion in asia involved a package approach involving investments in agricultural rd ii farmers in three of four countries paid higher prices net taxed for fertilizer during the height of the green revolution suggesting that it was the profitability not the subsidy that was central to increasing fertilizer use and iii asian countries did not target input subsidies but given leakage and diversion estimates of targeted programs it is unclear whether targeting would have been more cost effective both continents have two challenges in common degradation of soil health and increasingly larger shares of public spending on input subsidies the first challenge calls for paying attentions to improving fertilizer use efficiency which is an achievable target with high pay off in the long run the other challenge is now a historical fact that is once introduced subsidies are hard to eliminate even if they no longer contribute to agricultural productivity growth

the leasing puzzle prevailing theories in finance and economics suggest that leases and debt are substitutes an increase in one should led to a compensating decrease in the other in particular there are three views on the magnitude of the substitution coefficient standard finance theory treats cash flows from lease obligations as equivalent to debt cash flows thus describing the tradeoff between debt and leases as one to one others are willing to use a tradeoff of leases for debt which is less than but close to one the rationale for a dollar of leases using less of debt capacity than a dollar of debt obligation is based upon the differences in the terms and nature of lease and debt contracts finally there are some who argue that since leased assets may be firm specific the risk of moral hazard may be great resulting in a tradeoff of greater than one to one that is a dollar of a lease obligation uses more of debt capacity than a dollar of a debt obligation a series of empirical tests are performed in this study on samples of approximately 600 firms covering the years 1976 through 1981 with none of the three views supported by the results instead the results indicate that leases and debt are complements greater use of debt is associated with a greater use of leasing this finding reappears consistently for each year each definition of leverage ratios and each approach to analysis this complementary relationship persists even after refinements are made to the estimation technique

inter industry mobility and the cyclical upgrading of labor we investigate whether a market clearing model is consistent with industry employment and wage patterns related to the cyclical upgrading of labor we demonstrate that roy s 1951 market clearing

zimbabwe s maize based green revolution preconditions for replication abstract the green revolution was launched in 1960 in zimbabwe five years before it got underway in india since zimbabwe s green revolution was spearheaded by white commercial farmers however it was ignored by africa s new leaders in the 1960s as they experimented with state farms from moscow communal farms from china and land settlement schemes from israel at zimbabwe s independence in 1980 the new majority ruled government introduced a number of programs to help smallholders increase food and cash crop production drawing on a backlog of hybrid maize varieties expanded access to credit higher guaranteed government maize prices and marketing subsidies smallholders doubled maize production during 1980 1986 zimbabwe s maize based green revolution challenges those who allege that hybrid maize cannot compete with sorghum in low rainfall areas and that it is unsuitable for resource poor farmers because of the need to purchase new seed each year today virtually 100 of zimbabwe s maize area is under hybrids and short season hybrids are outcompeting other foodgrains in many low rainfall areas zimbabwe s biggest challenge is to develop cost effective marketing policies and institutions to sustain its maize based green revolution countries trying to replicate zimbabwe s success story should focus on fulfilling four interrelated preconditions political technological economic and institutional

south african land policy the legacy of history and current options abstract the highly dualistic farm structure of south africa and the low productivity of native african farmers have been the result of systematic distortions in land allocation output markets the provision of infrastructure agricultural credit and services the dualistic structure did not emerge because of genuine economies of scale in the large commercial sector other countries in latin america and africa that once supported a dualistic farm size structure through similar distortions have either implemented large scale land reforms or have experienced decades of peasant revolts and civil war the paper compares these international experiences to south africa and outlines judicial and market assisted approaches to south african land reform

invisible hands indigenous knowledge and inevitable fads challenges to public sector agricultural research in ghana abstract support for public sector agricultural research in developing countries is declining at the same time many donors feel that alternative institutions will be able to perform the functions traditionally reserved for the public sector these alternatives include private sector initiatives nongovernment organizations and farmer organizations and highly publicized special projects in agricultural development the logic of these alternatives is examined using evidence on maize research in ghana although each of the alternatives offers contributions and public sector research undoubtedly requires an overhaul emphasis is placed on the necessity of continued suport to building strong public sector agricultural research capacity

founded in adversity operations based survival strategies of ventures founded during a recession abstract we examine the survival of 404 new ventures founded during the 2008 recession we find that industry explains a significant but small percentage of variance in survival 2 81 percent and therefore focus on which operations related actions could enhance ventures odds of survival we find marginally significant support for our hypotheses that a venture founded during a recession is more likely to survive if it increases its production efficiency increases both its production efficiency and variable costs or increases both its production efficiency and fixed costs in property plant and equipment our findings demonstrate that operational decisions are key determinants of survival for ventures founded during a recession

operating leases and the assessment of lease debt substitutability operating leases are estimated in the current paper to be approximately thirteen times larger than finance leases on average in recognition of this the paper investigates the degree of substitutability between leasing and non lease debt using a comprehensive measure of leasing improving on the partial measures used in prior research operating lease liabilities are estimated using the constructive capitalisation approach suggested by imhoff lipe and wright 1991 accounting horizons 5 pp 51 63 modified to incorporate company specific and uk relevant assumptions the results imply that leasing and debt are partial substitutes with 1 of leasing displacing approximately 0 23 of non lease debt on average consistent with the argument that lessors bear some risks which are not inherent in debt contracts these findings suggest that substitution effects are not uniform across lease types

is executive compensation a substitute governance mechanism to debt financing and leasing this study examines whether and how ceo equity incentives relate to financing choices i e debt and leases using manually collected ceo compensation and lease data for a sample of large uk firms we found evidence of a negative relationship between ceo equity incentives and firm leverage we also found that ceo equity incentives and leases are negatively related the results are consistent with the theory introduced in this study on the substitutability of executive compensation and firm s debt lease financing our findings represent fresh empirical evidence and renewed interpretation regarding the relationship between executive equity based incentives and firm s financing choices the substitutability theory we introduced here suggests that firms with greater use of debt and or leases will implement less equity based compensation in mitigating the agency cost of equity

a time of agric rethinking the failure of agricultural programs in 1970s ghana summary recent interest in a new green revolution in africa has revived debate about state intervention in agricultural markets and biotechnology these debates take for granted that the first wave of green revolution interventions in africa failed to influence small scale food farmers this essay uses oral historical and documentary evidence from ghana s northern region to revisit the evidentiary basis of this assessment tracing how the production of aggregate data and changing interpretive frameworks in the 1970s and 1980s allowed policymakers to ignore the experiences of farmers the essay advocates for the role of micro historical analysis in assessing africa s recent agricultural past

lost generations of firms and aggregate labor market dynamics abstract can the unprecedented lack of startups during the u s great recession have persistently negative effects while fewer firms hiring workers can mechanically reduce employment for many years this may be offset by feedback effects on lower wages slacker labor markets and higher profits an estimated model of firm dynamics and frictional labor markets suggests that such feedback effects are too weak to offset the direct impact of fewer startups had firm entry remained constant during the great recession output would have recovered 4 6 years earlier and unemployment would have been 0 5 percentage points lower even 10 years after the crisis

distributional effects of maize self sufficiency in zimbabwe implications for pricing and trade policy abstract maize self sufficiency has normally been an explicit policy goal throughout eastern and southern africa because of the perception that it could be achieved at prices below import parity and that it contributes to rural income growth however this analysis based on household survey data from zimbabwe and the results of an econometrically based simulation model indicates that a pricing policy geared towards maize self sufficiency would mainly benefit a small set of well off farmers and require either greater subsidies or higher prices to consumers many of whom are low income rural farmers in low rainfall areas the broader implications of this analysis are that even if the producer price needed for self sufficiency is below import parity the pursuit of food self sufficiency may inflate food costs and exacerbate rural and urban food insecurity compared to a self rellance policy involving imports

equilibrium labor turnover firm growth and unemployment this paper considers equilibrium quit turnover in a frictional labor market with costly hiring by firms where large firms employ many workers and face both aggregate and firm specific productivity shocks there is exogenous firm turnover as new small startups enter the market over time while some existing firms fail and exit individual firm growth rates are disperse and evolve stochastically the paper highlights how dynamic monopsony where firms trade off lower wages against higher endogenous employee quit rates yields excessive job to job quits such quits directly crowd out the reemployment prospects of the unemployed with finite firm productivity states stochastic equilibrium is fully tractable and can be computed using standard numerical techniques

the cost of job loss this article identifies an equilibrium theory of wage formation and endogenous quit turnover in a labour market with on the job search where risk averse workers accumulate human capital through learning by doing and lose skills while unemployed optimal contracting implies the wage paid increases with experience and tenure indirect inference using german data determines the deep parameters of the model the estimated model not only reproduces the large and persistent fall in wages and earnings following job loss a new structural decomposition finds foregone human capital accumulation while unemployed is the worker s major cost of job loss

maize is life malawi s delayed green revolution abstract the pattern of maize seed development in malawi demonstrates the importance of farmers capacity to articulate their interests through collective action and institutions despite the vital significance of maize as a wage good in malawi limited effective demand for maize seed research prolonged the period of technical stagnation analysis of the institutional factors shaping the demand for maize seed research complements previous work on malawi s political economy the supply of seed technology and adoption with implications for current political changes in that nation the importance of farmers organizations and state commitment to agricultural research in sub saharan africa

operating lease decision and the impact of capitalization in a bank oriented country abstractthis article explores the reasons why firms engage in operating leases and examines the potential impact of a change in the related accounting rules we focus on the accounting advantage of off balance financing which does not affect the typical accounting based covenants especially important in bank oriented countries however we also consider other economically based arguments using manually collected operating lease data for spanish listed firms we use the constructive capitalization method to measure as if liabilities the results confirm that not only size and industry affect the decision but that firms closer to breaching their covenants are also more inclined to choose operating leases consequently it is argued that such firms will be more affected by the accounting change indeed the inclusion of liabilities in the balance sheet might tighten financial covenants in loan agreements as evidenced in the paper not surprisingly firms are strongly opposed to the accounting change

ranking firms using revealed preference this article estimates workers preferences for firms by studying the structure of employer to employer transitions in u s administrative data the article uses a tool from numerical linear algebra to measure the central tendency of worker flows which is closely related to the ranking of firms revealed by workers choices there is evidence for compensating differentials when workers systematically move to lower paying firms in a way that cannot be accounted for by layoffs or differences in recruiting intensity the estimates suggest that compensating differentials account for over half of the firm component of the variance of earnings

the establishment level behavior of vacancies and hiring this paper is the first to study vacancies hires and vacancy yields at the establishment level in the job openings and labor turnover survey a large sample of u s employers to interpret the data we develop a simple model that identifies the flow of new vacancies and the job filling rate for vacant positions the job filling rate moves counter to aggregate employment but rises steeply with employer growth rates in the cross section it falls with employer size rises with worker turnover rates and varies by a factor of four across major industry groups we also develop evidence that the employer level hiring technology exhibits constant returns and that at the employer level and that employers rely heavily on other instruments in addition to vacancies as they vary hires we also develop evidence that effective recruiting intensity per vacancy varies over time accounting for about 41 of movements in aggregate hires in the 2007 to 2009 period our evidence and analysis provide useful inputs for assessing developing and calibrating theoretical models of search matching and hiring in the labor market

revisions to us labor market data and the public s perception of the economy using the monthly employment situation reports for 1994 2013 this paper studies the revisions to us employment data the paper shows that the first press release underestimates net job creation in expansions and overestimates it in downturns the errors in reporting the data on the labor market can distort the public s perception about the stance of the labor market and have some political consequences this is well reflected by the finding that the job approval rating of president obama the index of consumer confidence and the economic conditions index of gallup have all been responding to the initial news on the us labor market as they were published in the employment situation reports

the contribution of large and small employers to job creation in times of high and low unemployment we document a negative correlation at business cycle frequencies between the net job creation rate of large employers and the level of aggregate unemployment that is much stronger than for small employers the differential growth rate of employment between initially large and small employers has an unconditional correlation of 0 5 with the unemployment rate and varies by about 5 percent over the business cycle we exploit several datasets from the united states denmark and france both repeated cross sections and job flows with employer longitudinal information spanning the last four decades and several business cycles we discuss implications for theories of factor demand jel d22 e23 e32 j23 l25

capital market imperfections and the incentive to lease abstract this paper evaluates the influence of financial contracting costs on public corporations incentives to lease fixed capital we argue that firms facing high costs of external funds can economize on the cost of funding by leasing we construct several measures of leasing propensity plus some a priori indicators of the severity of financial constraints facing firms we find that the share of total annual fixed capital costs attributable to either capital or operating leases is substantially higher at lower rated non dividend paying cash poor firms those likely to face relatively high premiums for external funds

firm level entry and exit dynamics over the business cycles abstract this paper presents a set of facts on the cyclicality of firm births and deaths in the u s during the period 1979 2013 asymmetry in the cyclicality between firm birth and firm death is observed aggregate firm birth is generally significantly procyclical while the counter cyclicality in firm death is ambiguous and sensitive to the choice of cyclical indicator such a pattern exists within the majority of sectors as well and is mainly driven by small firms young firms are the main contributors to the findings on firm death activity further examination along the time dimension discovers a reason for the contemporaneous cyclicality or lack thereof which can be documented as a new fact firm births positively lead the usual business cycle measures and firm deaths positively lag them moreover cyclicality in business openings and closings differs from establishment level to firm level due to the internal adjustment of continuing firms

environmental impacts of technological change in bangladesh agriculture farmers perceptions determinants and effects on resource allocation decisions this article measures the impact of modern technology adoption in raising farmers environmental awareness and the impact of farmers environmental awareness on resource use by utilizing survey data from 21 villages in three agro ecological regions of bangladesh the econometric analysis is based on the application of the tobit model explaining farmers environmental awareness in the first stage and a profit function examining environmental awareness and resource use relationships in the second stage results reveal that the level and duration of involvement with modern technology raises farmers environmental awareness and that farmers environmental awareness reduces resource use including chemicals farmers who are aware of the adverse environmental impacts of modern agricultural technology use lower amounts of all inputs in order to avoid further environmental damage therefore efforts to raise farmers environmental awareness are expected to enhance intangible benefits accruing from a relatively less chemical intensive environment

financing of firms labor reallocation and the distributional role of monetary policy we analyze monetary policy in a heterogenous firms environment where cash con strained firms finance operations through external financing and cash unconstrained firms operate by using internal funds we show that firms respond differently to shocks expansionary monetary policy sharply increases the relative employment of the cash constrained firms while positive productivity shocks induce a rise in the relative employment of the cash unconstrained firms our analysis points to a clear role of monetary policy in reallocating resources across sectors that differ in their financing capabilities furthermore the predictions of our model match the empirical evidence implying that financially constrained firms react sharply to monetary policy shocks but are less cyclical than unconstrained firms following productivity shocks

the economics of wheat research in developing countries the one hundred million dollar puzzle abstract currently 1 150 scientists are carrying out wheat improvement research in developing countries with an annual budget of around 100 million because of the recent reduction in agricultural research budgets this study marshalls evidence from 71 wheat research programs in 35 developing countries to address the following puzzle what is the optimal size type and location of wheat research programs in the developing world the analysis reveals that if research spillins are taken into consideration almost half of the wheat improvement programs in developing countries are inefficient the efficiency of wheat research in many national agricultural research systems can be increased by reducing the size of research programs consolidating state and federal research programs and shifting from wheat breeding research to capturing spillins from other countries and from the international maize and wheat improvement center cimmyt

wage differentials employer size and unemployment the unique equilibrium solution to a game in which a continuum of individual employers choose permanent wage offers and a continuum of workers search by sequentially sampling from the set of offers is characterized wage dispersion is a robust outcome provided that workers search while employed as well as when unemployed the unique nondegenerate equilibrium distribution of wage offers is constructed for three cases 1 identical workers and employers 2 identical employers and an atomless distribution of worker supply prices and 3 identical workers and an atomless distribution of job productivities copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

unemployment fluctuations match quality and the wage cyclicality of new hires we revisit the issue of the high cyclicality of wages of new hires we show that after controlling for composition effects likely involving procyclical upgrading of job match quality the wages of new hires are no more cyclical than those of existing workers the key implication is that the sluggish behaviour of wages for existing workers is a better guide to the cyclicality of the marginal cost of labour than is the high measured cyclicality of new hires wages unadjusted for composition effects key to our identification is distinguishing between new hires from unemployment versus those who are job changers we argue that to a reasonable approximation the wages of the former provide a composition free estimate of the wage flexibility while the same is not true for the latter we then develop a quantitative general equilibrium model with sticky wages via staggered contracting on the job search and heterogeneous match quality and show that it can account for both the panel data evidence and aggregate evidence on labour market volatility

the priority structure of corporate liabilities most discussions of corporate capital structure effectively assume that all debt is the same yet debt differs by maturity covenant restrictions conversion rights call provisions and priority here we examine priority structure across a sample of 4995 compustat industrial firms from 1981 to 1991 we analyze the variation in the use of capital leases secured debt ordinary debt subordinated debt and preferred stock both as a fraction of the firm s market value and as a fraction of total fixed claims our evidence provides consistent support for contracting cost hypotheses mixed support for tax hypotheses and little support for the signaling hypothesis