credit constraints and the phenomenon of child labor abstract this paper develops an overlapping generations general equilibrium model where inefficient child labor arises due to credit constraints it derives a positive relationship between inequality in the distribution of income and the incidence of child labor looking at policy implications it shows how trade sanctions against countries using child labor may fail to reduce the incidence of child labor it discusses some alternative policies to reduce the incidence of child labor

the perceived returns to education and the demand for schooling economists emphasize the link between market returns to education and investments in schooling though many studies estimate these returns with earnings data it is the perceived returns that affect schooling decisions and these perceptions may be inaccurate using survey data for eighth grade boys in the dominican republic we find that the perceived returns to secondary school are extremely low despite high measured returns students at randomly selected schools given information on the higher measured returns completed on average 0 20 0 35 more years of school over the next four years than those who were not

public versus private investment in human capital endogenous growth and income inequality in this paper we present an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents in which human capital investment through formal schooling is the engine of growth we use simple functional forms for preferences technologies and income distribution to highlight the distinction between economies with public education and those with private education we find that income inequality declines more quickly under public education on the other hand private education yields greater per capita incomes unless the initial income inequality is sufficiently high we also find that societies will choose public education if a majority of agents have incomes below average

a defense of compulsive measures against child labor abstract this research characterizes policies likely to trigger the onset of a growth enhancing fertility transition even for an economy with initially a low per capita income the environment considered is one where children s time has an economic value and schooling and child labor are the main competing claims on a child s time using a one parent family overlapping generations model i argue that compulsive measures against child labor are justifiable as an integral part of an intervention that combines incentives and regulations in order to eliminate child labor the analysis highlights fertility and child labor dynamics as shaped by the relative cost of children

birth order schooling and earnings birth order effects are posited by many to affect earnings and schooling we show how such effects can be interpreted to shift either the earnings possibility frontier for siblings or parental preferences we find empirical evidence for birth order effects on age adjusted schooling and on earnings for young u s adults though the latter is not robust for all specifications the examination of intrahousehold allocations suggests that these birth order differences occur despite parental preferences or prices by birth order favoring later borns apparently because of stronger endowment effects that favor firstborns

installed base and compatibility innovation product preannouncements and predation a good is often more valuable to any user the more others use compatible goods the authors show that this effect may inhibit innovation if an installed base exists and transition to a new standard must be gradual early adopters bear a disproportionate share of transient incompatibility costs this can produce excess inertia the installed base however is stranded if the new standard is adopted this may create excess momentum these dynamic effects have strategic implications temporary price cutting can permanently prevent entry and product preannouncements can be critical in innovation these strategic actions have ambiguous welfare effects

belief disagreements and collateral constraints belief disagreements have been suggested as a major contributing factor to the recent subprime mortgage crisis this paper theoretically evaluates this hypothesis i assume that optimists have limited wealth and take on leverage so as to take positions in line with their beliefs to have a significant effect on asset prices they need to borrow from traders with pessimistic beliefs using loans collateralized by the asset itself since pessimists do not value the collateral as much as optimists do they are reluctant to lend which provides an endogenous constraint on optimists ability to borrow and to influence asset prices i demonstrate that the tightness of this constraint depends on the nature of belief disagreements optimism concerning the probability of downside states has no or little effect on asset prices because these types of optimism are disciplined by this constraint instead optimism concerning the relative probability of upside states could have significant effects on asset prices this asymmetric disciplining effect is robust to allowing for short selling because pessimists that borrow the asset face a similar endogenous constraint these results emphasize that what investors disagree about matters for asset prices to a greater extent than the level of disagreements when richer contracts are available relatively complex contracts that resemble some of the recent financial innovations in the mortgage market endogenously emerge to facilitate betting

introducing uncertainty into baland and robinson s model of child labour abstract bland and robinson 2000 baland j m robinson j a 2000 is child labour inefficient journal of political economy 108 4 663 681 developed a model of child labour in which child labour can be inefficiently high when parents are credit constrained we show here that when return to human capital is uncertain and insurance are incomplete the level of child labour can be inefficiently high even when parents are not credit constrained and bequests are interior

child labor and coordination failures abstract in this note we show that a technology based coordination failure may explain the emergence of laws restricting child labor child labor may arise because of the lack of a coordination mechanism between parental decisions to invest in the human capital of their children and firms decisions to invest in skill biased technologies legislative intervention in many cases helps coordinate expectations towards a pareto superior outcome with investments both in human capital and in skill biased technologies

risk sharing between and within families this paper uses the panel study of income dynamics to test whether risk sharing is complete between or within american families the tests accommodate a wide variety in the configuration and availability of family data the test results reject inter as well as intra family full risk sharing even assuming that leisure is endogenous or that leisure and consumption are nonseparable

bounded rationality expectations and child labour this paper develops a model with overlapping generations where the household s optimal fertility child labour and education decisions depend on the parents expectations or beliefs about the return to education it is shown that there exists a range of parental income where the fertility rate is high and children participate in the labour market and receive an incomplete education if a parent believes the return to education is low the act of participating in the labour market reduces the child s ability to accumulate human capital thus the action of sending a child into the labour market is sufficient to ensure that the parents initially pessimistic expectations are fulfilled it is then shown that a one time policy intervention such as banning child labour and mandatory education can be enough to move a country from the positive child labour equilibrium to an equilibrium with no child labour rationalite limitee anticipations et travail des enfants ce memoire developpe un modele de chevauchement des generations ou la fecondite optimale du menage le travail des enfants et les decisions a propos de l education dependent des anticipations des parents ou de qu ils croient etre le rendement sur l education on montre qu il existe un eventail de revenus des parents pour lequel le taux de fecondite est eleve et les enfants participent au marche du travail et recoivent une education incomplete si un parent croit que le rendement sur l investissement en education est faible le fait d entrer sur le marche du travail reduit la capacite de l enfant a accumuler du capital humain et donc le fait de l envoyer sur le marche du travail est suffisant pour s assurer que les anticipations pessimistes du parent se realisent on montre qu une intervention ponctuelle de politique publique a un moment donne comme bannir le travail des enfants ou imposer l education obligatoire peut suffire pour deplacer un pays d un equilibre avec travail des enfants vers un equilibre sans travail des enfants

the macroeconomics of child labor regulation we develop a positive theory of the adoption of child labor laws workers who compete with children in the labor market support a child labor ban unless their own working children provide a large fraction of family income fertility decisions lock agents into specific political preferences and multiple steady states can arise the introduction of child labor laws can be triggered by skill biased technological change which induces parents to choose smaller families the theory can account for the observation that in britain regulations were first introduced after a period of rising wage inequality and coincided with rapid fertility decline

dynamics and stagnation in the malthusian epoch this paper examines the central hypothesis of the influential malthusian theory according to which improvements in the technological environment during the pre industrial era had generated only temporary gains in income per capita eventually leading to a larger but not significantly richer population exploiting exogenous sources of cross country variations in land productivity and the level of technological advancement the analysis demonstrates that in accordance with the theory technological superiority and higher land productivity had significant positive effects on population density but insignificant effects on the standard of living during the time period 1 1500 ce

is there a child labor trap intergenerational persistence of child labor in brazil this article examines the intergenerational persistence of child labor empirically by looking at household survey data from brazil previous empirical work on child labor has focused primarily on isolating the determinants of child labor using survey data we take a different approach by asking does the child labor status of parents affect the child labor incidence of their children we look at this question in two ways our working assumption is that financial need creates this generational link but we also ask if there exists an intergenerational link over and above that which is transmitted through the production of income perhaps through norms we find strong evidence that this link exists and that it appears to persist even when income is held constant moreover we find that children who did not work as child laborers command higher salaries later in life which suggests that the potential human capital gains through apprenticeship as children are outweighed by the human capital gains children receive through schooling excerpt

rational expectations business cycles in search equilibrium we examine the rational expectations equilibrium paths of the model of search and barter in diamond s aggregate demand management in search equilibrium for some initial positions there are two equilibrium paths converging to different steady states with the high activity path pareto dominating the low activity path with some parameters there is also a continuum of equilibrium paths converging to another steady state moreover there can be cycles that are equilibrium paths even though the environment is stationary

social security as trade among living generations we model u s social security that is legislated endogeneously by living generations specifically we consider the effects of social security on resource allocation and pareto optimality examining which generations gain from social security and whether some generations lose because saving and transfer decisions are made sequentially in the real world we use an infinite horizon overlapping generations framework in which life cycle saving and transfers to the old are determined by living agents we focus on the case in which agents are altruistic but place sufficiently greater weight on own comsumption than on the consumption of agents in other generations so that starting from a steady state without social security living agents would gain utility if consumption were shifted marginally to them from later generations excerpt

teachers growth and convergence this paper examines the role of individual instruction and teacher quality in determining economic growth and convergence across school districts the model shows that if teacher quality is more important for human capital accumulation than individual instruction human capital convergence will occur between two school districts this convergence arises because a poor school district hires relatively better teachers but uses them in larger classes in comparison with a rich school district the model is estimated on panel data of the states of the united states from 1882 to 1990 the estimates indicate that teacher quality is relatively more important for human capital accumulation than individual instruction the model accounts for all the mean growth in state per capita incomes and between 80 and 100 percent of convergence in state per capita incomes

population growth and human capital investments theory and evidence this paper presents evidence from empirical studies that test hypotheses derived from models of household behavior pertaining to the interrelationships among population growth human capital and economic development these studies have exploited quasi natural experiments embodied in the cross area variability in the wage rates of children in a number of low income countries the intercouple variation in the biological propensity to conceive and the geographically selective introduction of new high yielding seed varieties in india in the period 1961 71 the different varieties of evidence support the hypotheses that alterations in the returns to human capital associated with exogenous technical change lead simultaneously to increases in human capital investments and to reductions in fertility and that the costliness of fertility control is a significant but modest factor in inhibiting human capital investments

real business cycles and the animal spirits hypothesis abstract we calibrate a quantitative equilibrium macroeconomic model with an aggregate technology that is subject to increasing returns and show that this model may display fluctuations at business cycle frequencies even when there are no shocks to the fundamentals of the economy these fluctuations are due to the self fulfilling beliefs of investors which we call animal spirits we compare the impulse response functions predicted by our model and by two other more standard models with a four variable vector autoregression on u s data our animal spirits economy is the most successful of the three at matching broad features of the dynamic responses in the data journal of economic literature classification numbers e00 e3 e32

explaining cross country differences in policy response to child labour we develop a model of child labour where poverty and inequality combine to determine policy response to child labour if there are strategic complementarities between parents decisions to educate their children and firms technology choice multiple school enrolment equilibria arise only rich countries and those that are not too poor and have a low wealth inequality benefit from adopting child labour laws this is because such laws commit an economy with either of those initial conditions to the full school enrolment equilibrium which pareto dominates all other equilibria moreover wealth redistribution is not sufficient to eliminate child labour jel classification i20 o33 une explication des differences d un pays a l autre dans la reaction des politiques au phenomene du travail des enfants les auteurs developpent un modele de travail des enfants dans lequel les niveaux de pauvrete et d inegalite se combinent pour determiner les politiques si des complementarites strategiques existent entre les decisions des parents d eduquer leurs enfants et le choix de technologie des entreprises de nombreux equilibres impliquant divers niveaux d inscription a l ecole sont possibles seuls les pays riches et ceux qui ne sont pas trop pauvres ou qui ont un degre d inegalite de la richesse relativement bas tirent profit de lois reglementant le travail des enfants c est le cas parce que de telles lois engagent une economie qui a ces caracteristiques a se diriger vers un equilibre d inscription totale des enfants a l ecole dans ces cas il s agit d un equilibre qui domine au sens de pareto tous les autres equilibres on note de plus que la redistribution de la richesse ne suffit pas pour eliminer le travail des enfants

economic consequences of an aging population pip europe and japan are experiencing the aging of their populations aging implies a restructuring of the economy political issues which arise in an aging society include 1 a voting majority for the interests of the elderly 2 a voting majority of females 3 the domination of the decision power in corporate and similar ruling bodies and 4 unemployment or a long wait for promotion for younger people economic issues of an aging society include 1 population aging often occurs under reduced rates of growth of per capita national income 2 the relative economic status of the elderly very much depends on the currently existing tax transfer systems and 3 the income of families whose head is over age 65 has generally been more unequally distributed than the income for younger families issues concerning the labor supply of the elderly include 1 the availability of pension income and health limitations strongly influence decisions to retire and 2 older workers become disheartened and choose early retirement when facing bad reemployment prospects in general population aging is likely to have its most substantive effect on the overall level of productivity in an economy where technical knowledge is changing rapidly and strong competition necessitates a high degree of adaptability of the labor force