getting big too fast strategic dynamics with increasing returns and bounded rationality neoclassical models of strategic behavior have yielded many insights into competitive behavior despite the fact that they often rely on a number of assumptions including instantaneous market clearing and perfect foresight that have been called into question by a broad range of research researchers generally argue that these assumptions are good enough to predict an industry s probable equilibria and that disequilibrium adjustments and bounded rationality have limited competitive implications here we focus on the case of strategy in the presence of increasing returns to highlight how relaxing these two assumptions can lead to outcomes quite different from those predicted by standard neoclassical models prior research suggests that in the presence of increasing returns tight appropriability and accommodating rivals in some circumstances early entrants can achieve sustained competitive advantage by pursuing get big fast gbf strategies rapidly expanding capacity and cutting prices to gain market share advantage and exploit positive feedbacks faster than their rivals using a simulation of the duopoly case we show that when the industry moves slowly compared to capacity adjustment delays boundedly rational firms find their way to the equilibria predicted by conventional models however when market dynamics are rapid relative to capacity adjustment forecasting errors lead to excess capacity overwhelming the advantage conferred by increasing returns our results highlight the risks of ignoring the role of disequilibrium dynamics and bounded rationality in shaping competitive outcomes and demonstrate how both can be incorporated into strategic analysis to form a dynamic behavioral game theory amenable to rigorous analysis

growth paths and survival chances an application of gambler s ruin theory this paper links new firm survival with growth with a focus on the patterns in firms growth paths we theorise a gambler s ruin framework by arguing that new firm performance is best modelled as a random walk process but that survival is nonrandom and depends primarily on the stock of accumulated resources a firm s resources are either there when the business begins or are generated by successful periods wins the empirical section tracks over six years the sales and survival non survival of 6247 uk start ups which all began trading in the same quarter of 2004 we do not find strong evidence in favour of a taxonomy of growth paths because we observe that every possible growth path seems to occur with roughly equal probability however we observe that growth paths influence subsequent survival controlling for lagged size we observe that longer lags of growth and even start up size have significant effects on survival

persistence survival and growth a closer look at 20 years of fast growing firms in austria for survival persistence and growth hifs show a much higher persistence than hgfs the average growth rate after the high growth episode is quite modest for both hifs and hgfs policy implications of the ndings are discussed

are high growth firms one hit wonders evidence from sweden most firms do not grow and a small number of high growth firms seem to create most new jobs these firms have therefore received increasing attention among policymakers the question is whether high growth tends to persist we investigate this question using firm level data from sweden during 1997 2008 we find that high growth firms had declining growth rates in the previous 3 year period and their probability of repeating high growth rates was very low thus these are essentially one hit wonders and it is doubtful whether policymakers can improve economic outcomes by targeting them

variable risk preferences in new firm growth and survival we outline and test a decision making theory of new venture growth and survival building upon research in entrepreneurship and decision making under risk we hypothesize that entrepreneurs attention to survival and aspiration reference points changes based on venture age experience based learning size differences in decision complexity and performance decision domain examining a panel of 14 760 new ventures in the professional services sector our findings show how risk preferences change as a venture ages and increases in size this approach offers a more nuanced view of decision making under risk and provides a theoretical explanation for the common patterns of new ventures probability of exit and growth diminishing with age and size

money income prices and interest rates including data from the 1980s sharply weakens the postwar time series evidence indicating significant relationships between money however defined and nominal income or between money and either real income or prices separately focusing on data from 1970 onward destroys this evidence altogether evidence indicating cointegration of real income and real money balances with due allowance for the effect of interest rates also deteriorates when the sample extends through the 1980s a positive finding is that the spread between the commercial paper rate and the treasury bill rate consistently contains highly significant information about future movements in real income copyright 1992 by american economic association

flight to quality in banking and economic activity abstract recent explanations of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy have emphasized that riskier lower net worth borrowers are more dependent on bank lending than larger less risky borrowers evidence from the federal reserve s survey on terms of bank lending indicates that the proportion of relatively high quality new loans safe moves countercyclically and granger causes gdp and inventory investment in the aftermath of a tightening of monetary policy the safe variable increases and in turn policy tends to relax once safe has risen

in search for yield survey based evidence on bank risk taking abstract monetary policy can have an impact on economic and financial stability through the risk taking of banks falling interest rates might induce investment into risky activities this paper provides evidence on the link between monetary policy and bank risk taking we use a factor augmented vector autoregressive model favar for the us for the period 1997 2008 besides standard macroeconomic indicators we include factors summarizing information provided in the federal reserve s survey of terms of business lending stbl these data provide information on banks new loans as well as interest rates for different loan risk categories and different banking groups we identify a risk taking channel of monetary policy by distinguishing responses to monetary policy shocks across different types of banks and different loan risk categories following an expansionary monetary policy shock small domestic banks increase their exposure to risk large domestic banks do not change their risk exposure foreign banks take on more risk only in the mid 2000s when interest rates were too low for too long

optimal voting schemes with costly information acquisition a group of individuals with identical preferences must make a decision under uncertainty about which decision is best before the decision is made each agent can privately acquire a costly and imperfect signal we discuss how to design a mechanism for eliciting and aggregating the collected information so as to maximize ex ante social welfare we first show that of all mechanisms a sequential one is optimal and works as follows at random one agent at a time is selected to acquire information and report the resulting signal agents are informed of neither their position in the sequence nor of other reports acquiring information when called upon and reporting truthfully is an equilibrium we next characterize the ex ante optimal scheme among all ex post efficient mechanisms in this mechanism a decision is made when the precision of the posterior exceeds a cut off that decreases with each additional report the restriction to ex post efficiency is shown to be without loss when the available signals are sufficiently imprecise on the other hand ex post efficient mechanisms are shown to be suboptimal when the cost of information acquisition is sufficiently small

the dynamics of credit markets in a model with learning abstract a dynamic credit market is modeled in which the production and processing of information leads to alternating and persistent periods of growth and contraction in the model the number of projects engaged in determines the precision of estimates of future returns obtained from current investment shocks to underlying returns to risky projects are magnified and prolonged by the learning process multiple equilibria may exist and the magnification effect may be even larger since shocks can move the credit market to a new equilibrium the allocation of credit is generally not a constrained pareto efficient allocation

monetary policy and bank lending in the euro area is there a stock market channel or an interest rate channel abstract in this paper i compare a traditional demand oriented model of bank lending with its focus on short term interest rates in the money market to a non traditional capital budgeting model of bank lending based on movements in share valuations for the euro area using non nested hypothesis tests omitted variables tests and granger causality tests i reject the traditional demand oriented model of bank lending and fail to reject the capital budgeting model of bank lending for monetary financial institutions mfi s in the euro area even though europe is a bank based financial system it appears the stock market plays a key role in the lending decisions and allocation of resources in europe one possible policy implication of this research is that the central bank should try and stabilize stock prices in order to achieve their goal of stabilizing bank lending and the economy

bank competition and credit standards this article offers an explanation for the substantial variation of credit standards and price competition among banks over the business cycle as the economic outlook improves the average default probabilities of borrowers decline this affects the profitability of screening and causes bank screening intensity to display an inverse u shape as a function of economic prospects low screening activity in expansions creates intense price competition among lenders and loans are extended to lower quality borrowers as the economic outlook worsens price competition diminishes and credit standards tighten significantly deposit insurance may contribute to the countercyclical variation of credit standards copyright 2004 oxford university press

trade credit and the effect of macro financial shocks evidence from u s panel data using disaggregated panel data we examine how firms change trade credit in response to a monetary tightening we find that both accounts payable and accounts receivable increase with tighter monetary policy implying that trade credit helps firms absorb the effect of a credit contraction further both s p 500 firms and a comparison group of smaller firms increase net trade credit accounts receivable minus payable making up for the reduced liquidity associated with tighter policy however we find no evidence that large firms play this role more actively than smaller firms

how capital regulation and other factors drive the role of shadow banking in funding short term business credit abstract this paper empirically analyzes how capital regulation risk and other factors altered the relative use of shadow banking funded short term business debt since the early 1960s results indicate that the share was affected over the long run not only by changing information and reserve requirement costs but also by shifts in relative regulation of bank versus nonbank credit sources such as basel i in 1990 and reregulation in 2010 in the short run the shadow bank share rose when deposit interest rate ceilings were binding on traditional banks the economic outlook improved or risk premia declined and fell when event risks arose

whom do high growth firms hire we study employment and new hires among high growth firms hgfs in the swedish knowledge intensive sectors 1999 2002 using matched employer employee data we find that hgfs are more likely to emp

entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring a model of the credit channel abstract this paper develops a model of the choice between bank and market finance by entrepreneurial firms that differ in the value of their net worth the monitoring associated with bank finance ameliorates a moral hazard problem between the entrepreneurs and their lenders the model is used to analyze the different strands of the credit view of the transmission of monetary policy in particular we derive the empirical implications of a broad credit channel and compare them to those obtained when the model is extended to incorporate some elements of the bank lending channel

an optimal voting procedure when voting is costly abstract we study optimal dynamic voting procedures when voting is costly for a highly stylized specification of our model with private values two alternatives and binary equally likely types we show the optimality of a voting procedure that combines two main elements i there is an arbitrarily chosen default decision and abstention is interpreted as a vote in favor of the default ii voting is sequential and is terminated when a supermajority requirement which declines over time is met we show the optimality of such a voting procedure by arguing that it is first best that is it maximizes welfare when equilibrium constraints are ignored and by showing that individual incentives and social welfare are sufficiently aligned to make a first best procedure incentive compatible we also provide counterexamples where no first best procedure is incentive compatible when voters binary types are not equally likely

when costly voting is beneficial abstract we present a costly voting model in which each voter has a private valuation for their preferred outcome of a vote when there is a zero cost to voting all voters vote and hence all values are counted equally regardless of how high they may be by having a cost to voting only those with high enough values would choose to incur this cost we show that by adding this cost welfare may be enhanced even when the cost of voting is wasteful such an effect occurs when there is both a large enough density of voters with low values and the expected value of voters is high enough

whom do new firms hire using the matched employer employee data set for denmark and information on the founders of new firms we analyze the hiring choices of all new firms that entered from 2003 to 2010 we develop a theoretical model in which the quality of a firm s employees determines its average cost a firm s productivity is based on its pre entry experience and persistent shocks and over time firms learn about their productivity the model predicts that more productive firms are larger and hire more talented employees which gives rise to various predictions about how pre entry experience firm growth rates and firm size influence the wages firms pay to their early hires we find that beginning with the time of entry larger firms consistently pay higher wages to their new hires these are firms with greater survival prospects at the time of entry based on the pre entry backgrounds of their founders and that grow at greater rates over time both of which are predictive of the wages paid to new hires from the time of entry onward our findings suggest workers are allocated to firms according to their abilities which can give rise to enduring firm capabilities

information and bank credit allocation abstract private information obtained by lenders leads to borrower capture to the extent that such information cannot be communicated credibly to outsiders we analyze how this capture affects the loan portfolio allocation of informed lenders first we show that banks charge higher interest rates and finance relatively less creditworthy borrowers in market segments with greater information asymmetries second when faced with greater competition from outside lenders banks reallocate credit toward more captured borrowers flight to captivity third if borrower quality and captivity are sufficiently correlated an increase in the competitiveness of uninformed lenders can worsen the informed lender s overall loan portfolio the model explains observed consequences of financial liberalizations

financial crisis and credit crunch in korea evidence from firm level data abstract this paper analyzes the credit crunch following the recent financial crisis in korea using enterprise level data we find that there were big differences in the magnitude of the credit contraction across different types of firms in particular chaebol conglomerate affiliated firms appeared to have lost the preferential access to credit that they had enjoyed in the pre crisis period and credit appears to have been reallocated in favor of more efficient firms this suggests that the credit crunch suffered by certain sectors can be attributed to the adjustment by banks and enterprises to the restructuring of the financial sector rather than tight monetary policy or an external credit constraint

new firm survival new results using a hazard function a limitation of audretsch s 1991 study of new firm survival was the level of aggregation to industries this precluded linking establishment specific characteristics such as organizational structure and size to post entry performance the purpose of this paper is to relate the post entry performance of individual establishments not only to their technological and market structure environments but also to establishment specific characteristics we do this by estimating a hazard duration function for more than 12 000 individual establishments in u s manufacturing started in 1976 by tracking their subsequent performance over a ten year period we conclude that establishment specific characteristics which audretsch was not able to capture in his earlier study play an important role in shaping the exposure to risk confronting new establishments copyright 1995 by mit press

is mandatory voting better than voluntary voting we investigate the welfare effects of policies that increase voter turnout in costly voting models in a generalized costly voting model we show that if the electorate is sufficiently large then increasing voter turnout is generically efficient increasing turnout in small elections is only inefficient if the electorate is evenly divided or if there is already almost complete voter participation finally we argue that the effects underlying our results are robust in a large class of endogenous participation models

what happens to gazelles the importance of dynamic management strategy the starting point of this study is gibrat s law which is contrasted with strategic management this logic is subsequently applied to a group of remarkably dynamic high growth firms gazelles strategic management theory emphasises the importance of firms adjusting strategies in response to changes in the external environment in our study it is used to explain several key empirical findings using a novel british data set containing information on more than 100 gazelles these findings help explain 1 why gibrat s law of random firm growth processes does not generally hold 2 which strategy and environmental variables have a predictable influence on firm performance and 3 why routine application of best practice strategies is unlikely to foster firm growth in a changing economic environment in so doing this paper contributes to the large body of literature on small firm growth

on evaluation costs in strategic factor markets the implications for competition and organizational design this paper uses a formal model to study how evaluation costs affect competition for resources in strategic factor markets it finds that relative scarcity may not always benefit resource sellers rather when competition among resource investors passes a certain threshold intensity miscoordination among investors increases to the point that sellers expected profits decline this paper extends the model to consider how investors organize to overcome managerial agency in resource evaluation two organizational designs are considered a incentivization wherein a lower level manager is motivated by an incentive contract to evaluate resources for an investor and b supervision wherein evaluation is either handled directly or closely monitored by headquarters the model suggests that competition among investors will be associated with a greater use of supervision and that investors using supervision will tend to make lower offers this paper also finds that supervision will be more common when valuable resources are rare this paper was accepted by bruno cassiman business strategy

heterogeneous borrowers liquidity and the search for credit abstract we develop a general equilibrium model of credit formation where borrowers and lenders must search for matches and where the composition of borrowers adjusts to satisfy equilibrium entry conditions when market liquidity dries up as a result of fundamental shocks to the system fewer borrowers will participate in the credit market with low quality borrowers suffering disproportionately because of a flight to quality however less liquid credit markets need not be associated with lower social output because the effect of higher average quality may outweigh that of reduced market participation depending crucially on the source of the liquidity shock

a good riddance spin offs and the technological performance of parent firms how do spin offs new ventures created by former employees of an incumbent firm affect the technological performance of their parents conventional wisdom holds that spin offs hurt parent firms the parent loses key staff routines are disrupted and performance declines although having some basis in fact we think the negative effects are overstated we argue that spin offs can enable parent firms to realign with their environment thereby avoiding the oncoming obsolescence arising from the combination of organizational inertia and environmental drift using data from the hard disk drive industry we find evidence that although the main effect of having a spin off on a parent firm s technological performance is positive the overall impact of a spin off depends upon the technological sophistication of the spin off and the time since the spin off occurred indeed parent firms of technologically sophisticated successful spin offs initially suffer poorer technological performance but over time they outperform firms that had no spin offs both effects are amplified to the extent that the spin off is more successful which we attribute to both increased environmental realignment and the positive signal that successful spin offs transmit to the broader labor market about the parent organization s reputation as an incubator of entrepreneurs and a desirable place to work

trade credit for supply chain coordination abstract trade credit is a seller s short term loan to the buyer allowing the buyer to delay payment of an invoice it has been the largest source of working capital for a majority of business to business firms in the united states numerous theories have been proposed to explain trade credit mainly from finance perspectives it has also been an important issue in supply chain management surprisingly most literature in supply chain management has examined the retailer s stocking policies given a supplier s trade credit this paper attempts to shed light on trade credit from a supplier s perspective and presents it as a tool for supply chain coordination specifically we explicitly assume firms financial needs for inventory following a newsvendor framework we assume that the supplier grants trade credit and markdown allowance given the supplier s offer the retailer determines order quantity and the financing option for the inventory either trade credit or direct financing from a financial institution our result shows that the supplier s markdown allowance alone cannot fully coordinate the supply chain if the retailer employs direct financing positive financing costs call for trade credit in order to subsidize the retailer s costs of inventory financing using trade credit in addition to markdown allowance the supplier fully coordinates the retailer s decisions for the largest joint profit and extracts a greater portion of the maximized joint profit

participation costs and efficient auctions abstract suppose that risk neutral agents have independently and perhaps asymmetrically distributed private valuations for an indivisible object a mechanism assigns the object but it is costly to send messages to the coordinator in these circumstances the second price auction has an equilibrium that is classicallyex anteefficient given general opportunities to invest in information about or enhancements of own valuations in contrast the first price sealed bid auction may have no efficient equilibrium even if buyers are symmetric other properties of the first price auction are proved a semirevelation principle is established for mechanisms with participation costs journal of economic literatureclassification numbers d44 d82

on the existence of persistently outperforming firms this study analyses persistence in growth rates for a data set of manufacturing firms of all sizes previous quantile autoregressions of firm growth rates show that extreme growth events are likely to be negatively correlated over time thus questioning the existence of persistent outperformers by supplementing the quantile regression analyses with transition probability matrices our study shows that bouncing firms coexist with persistent outperformers this result is shown to be robust for all size classes as well as for the exclusion of firms who experienced acquisitions or spin offs

credit reallocation deleveraging and financial crises this paper studies how the process of reallocation of credit across firms behaves before and after financial crises applying the methodology typically used for measuring job reallocation we track credit reallocation across korean firms for over three decades 1980 2012 the credit boom preceding the 1997 crisis featured a slowdown of credit reallocation after the crisis and the associated reforms the creditless recovery deleveraging masked a dramatic intensification and increased procyclicality of credit reallocation the findings suggest that the intensification of reallocation was efficiency enhancing

stumblers and stars in the management of rapid growth this article examines the problems of managing a rapid growth firm we contend that instead of being a time for entrepreneurial celebration and relief a period of over 50 growth is a time for wariness and some very difficult decisions such firms face a fragile transition they are beyond being intimate cohesive entrepreneurial ventures but they have not yet become secure stable entities not only are they in flux but these firms are often disoriented by the pace at which change is occurring firms such as atari cray research cullinet osborne computers people express and rolm recently have faced or now face these challenges with very different degrees of success this article presents observations drawn from several sources a study of thirty rapid growth firms which we have underway literature and press accounts of rapid growth and our consulting and discussions with executives in such firms while far from definitive the article reports several themes that are very pronounced in the situations we have studied these themes are of two types 1 recurring challenges and traps faced by rapid growth companies and 2 characteristics af firms which seem to avoid or surmount these traps these are the four fundamental challenges that we see confronting rapid growth firms 1 1 instant size these firms double and triple in size very quickly this in turn creates problems of disaffection inadequate skills and inadequate systems 2 2 a sense of infallibility by virtue of their success to date rapid growth firms often view their strategies and behaviors as infallible the unfortunate irony is that they become convinced of their wisdom while the environment is turbulent and large competitors are entering 3 3 internal turmoil as a social organism a firm growing at 50 per year is under great strain there is a stream of new faces people who do not know each other and who do not know the company decision making suffers turf battles abound and people burn out 4 4 extraordinary resource needs rapid growth firms are typically cash starved instead of abundance they often face a bare bones existence each of these challenges calls for its own solutions but we have observed some overarching themes in firms that have successfully traversed a period of rapid growth the chief executive is able to envision and anticipate the firm as a larger entity the team needed for tomorrow is hired and developed today the original core vision of the firm is constantly and zealously reinforced new big company processes are introduced gradually as supplements to rather than replacements for existing approaches hierarchy is minimized employees hold a financial stake in the firm beyond developing these themes for success the article concludes with a brief discussion of the effectiveness of owner founders in rapid growth situations

a theory of the early growth of the firm economic enterprise consists in the matching of resources and opportunities to create value growth processes of the new enterprise are here explored in a systems model inspired by penrose a sequence of phases in the early life of the firm reflects growth processes and problems solutions giving rise to new problems firms must access mobilize and deploy resources before they can generate resources for growth subsequent phases in which growth reinforcement and growth reversal forces content are not universal but are set in motion in an important minority of firms the major job creators beyond the early phases critical problems facing the firm are more diverse the growth of the firm is related to the building of the competence needed to respond to changing industrial opportunities copyright 1998 by oxford university press

the money market meltdown of the great depression consistent with theories of financial frictions this study finds that higher corporate risk premia and flight to quality events contributed to the increased use of a collateralized form of business lending bankers acceptances in real levels and relative to that of noncollateralized commercial paper which plunged during the great depression these short lived instruments are more timely measures of credit availability than are bank business failures and bank loan outstandings these shifts in the composition of external finance were large supporting the view that financial frictions rose and credit availability fell during the great depression

early employment expansion and long run survival examining employee turnover as a context factor abstract we investigate under which circumstances early employment growth translates into greater long run survival drawing on penrose s growth theory we suggest that the relationship between early employment growth and long run survival is conditional on employee turnover we argue that higher employee turnover reduces joint experience in the firm and disrupts the development and eventual exploitation of the firm s productive opportunity set thereby reducing long term utilization of early employment expansion these arguments suggest that the firm s ability to realize long term benefits of early employment growth is contingent upon low employee turnover following this initial expansion using the danish integrated database for labor market research we show that only when employee turnover is low will early employment growth lead to higher survival in the long run

the changing structure of local credit markets are small businesses special abstract in many countries consolidation in the banking industry has reduced the number of small banks and led to significant shifts in market shares deregulation has fostered entry in local credit markets and the expansion of branch networks increasing competition in local markets small businesses are believed to be more vulnerable to these changes since they are more dependent on credit from local banks in this paper we investigate the consequences of consolidation and entry for these borrowers compared with those for large firms we employ a data set for italy which provides information on volumes of loans and bad loans by size of borrower with a detailed geographical partition we find that mergers are followed by a temporary reduction in outstanding credit to all sizes of borrowers and by an increase in bad loans most likely due to the reassessment of banks portfolios entry has a relatively persistent negative impact on credit supply to small and medium sized firms our results also show that concentration branch density and the share of branches of small banks affect the volumes of credit and bad loans of small borrowers