no arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios abstract we derive no arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications the bounds allow to distinguish three regions one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist a second where arbitrage may be present and a third where arbitrage opportunities will always exist no arbitrage bounds are derived in closed form for a given covariance matrix using the least possible number of scenarios empirical examples illustrate the practical potential of knowing these bounds

lp modeling for asset liability management a survey of choices and simplifications dynamic linear programming lp models for asset liability management alm are quite powerful and flexible but face two challenges 1 many modeling choices not all consistent with one another or with finance theory and 2 solution difficulties due to the large number of scenarios obtained from standard interest rate models we first survey these modeling choices with a view to help researchers make self consistent choices next we review how the dynamic lp model for alm and the representation of uncertainty therein have been simplified in the past to motivate new or hybrid models emphasizing tractability to this end we review existing static lp models as extreme modeling simplifications and aggregation as a simplification of uncertainty

simulation and optimization approaches to scenario tree generation in this paper three approaches are presented for generating scenario trees for 3nancial portfolio problems these are based on simulation optimization and hybrid simulation optimization in the simulation approach the price scenarios at each time period are generated as the centroids of random scenario simulations generated sequentially or in parallel the optimization method generates a number of discrete outcomes which satisfy speci3ed statistical properties by solving either a sequence of non linear optimization models one at each node of the scenario tree or onelargeoptimization proble m in thehybrid approach theoptimization proble m is re duce d in size by 3xing price variables to values obtained by simulation these procedures are backtested using historical data and computational results are presented 2003 elsevier b v all rights reserved

tax policy and aggregate demand management under catching up with the joneses this paper examines the role for tax policies in productivity shock driven economies with catching up with the joneses utility functions the optimal tax policy is shown to affect the economy countercyclically via procyclical taxes i e cooling down the economy with higher taxes when it is overheating in booms and stimulating the economy with lower taxes in recessions to keep consumption up thus models with catching up with the joneses utility functions call for traditional keynesian demand management policies but for rather unorthodox reasons

the use and abuse of meta analysis in environmental and natural resource economics an assessment motivated by the 2006 report of a work group appointed by the environmental protection agency epa this paper examines the present state of meta analysis in environmental economics and offers recommendations for its future use to this end we summarize and assess 140 meta analyses from 125 published and unpublished studies covering 17 topical categories in environmental and resource economics first we provide several generic meta analysis models as reference points and discuss major estimation issues five econometric issues are identified as part of a complete analysis 1 sample selection criteria 2 basic data summary 3 primary data heterogeneity 4 heteroskedasticity and 5 non independence of multiple observations from primary studies second a tabular summary is presented for the 140 meta analyses with respect to estimation methods third a narrative summary is presented for 19 meta analyses including the three value of statistical life studies examined by the epa work group and one analysis from each of 16 other categories fourth we offer a set of best practice guidelines for future meta analyses in this and other areas of economics last the paper comments on the use of meta analytic methods for benefit transfers of environmental values

do contingent valuation estimates pass a scope test a meta analysis abstract this paper considers the scope test proposed to judge the internal consistency of contingent valuation estimates the test is shown to be quite sensitive to the maintained hypotheses required to derive fairly precise expectations for the properties of wtp functions and therefore a different approach may be needed in gauging the reliability of cv this paper describes an approach that relies on a weight of the evidence criterion and uses meta analysis to develop a systematic appraisal of what the economic values of changes in amenity resources are the approach is illustrated for the case of estimating people s willingness to pay for improving or maintaining visibility at the national parks

is meta analysis a noah s ark for non market valuation this paper describes meta analytical methods as they have been applied to non market valuation research these studies have been used to review and synthesize literature and more recently in benefit transfer this second use imposes a higher standard on the consistency in economic concepts being summarized and in the resources included in a meta analysis to meet this need the paper proposes and illustrates a structural framework using a generalized method of moments estimator to estimate the parameters of a preference function with the benefits estimates usually encountered in meta analytic summaries

choosing a functional form for an international benefit transfer evidence from a nine country valuation experiment abstract this paper investigates the performance of common approaches in international benefit transfer using data from identical and simultaneous contingent valuation studies on marine water quality in nine european countries the environmental good is shared by the study countries but the countries differ substantially in their income levels and other characteristics we compare the performance of value transfers with or without income elasticity of willingness to pay adjustments and function transfers that include only core variables supported by economic theory our results point to a new source of uncertainty associated with function transfer choosing a particular functional form even if only theoretically relevant explanatory variables are used the theory offers no insights with respect to a functional relationship of the dependence e g linear log linear exponential polynomial we show that while different functional forms may offer improvements in model fit this does not necessarily translate to improvements in transfer errors or minimum tolerance levels in our case the value transfer with constant unit income elasticity adjustment corresponding to the log log functional relationship between willingness to pay and income performs the best including additional explanatory variables or using other functional forms worsens the quality of transfers overall our study questions the rationale for using more complicated function transfers in international benefit transfers as the relationships observed within a country or a group of countries does not necessarily translate to dependencies between countries

characterizing the effects of valuation methodology in function based benefits transfer abstract meta analyses have demonstrated that willingness to pay wtp estimates vary systematically according to methodological factors the benefits transfer literature provides little guidance with regard to the treatment of such effects transfers are typically conducted by ignoring such effects using ad hoc adjustments or otherwise suppressing information regarding the sensitivity of wtp to methodological attributes this paper illustrates a means to characterize methodological effects within benefits transfer based on an application of the common bootstrap drawing from meta analysis the approach characterizes the sampling distribution of wtp with respect to patterns of methodological variation present in underlying studies results provide a means to characterize the extent of variation associated with predefined groups of methodological attributes providing transparent information on the sensitivity of wtp not typically available in benefits transfer

valuing non market valuation studies using meta analysis a demonstration using estimates of willingness to pay for water quality improvements abstract a common refrain in the environmental economics literature is the need for additional estimates of environmental and natural resource values yet economists have paid little formal attention to the value of information voi provided by non market valuation studies and whether this value justifies the cost we develop a novel voi model to quantify the benefit of non market valuation studies conducted to expand the body of value estimates in the literature and hence available for use in policy analyses the approach is designed to capitalize on information available through preexisting valuation meta data and can be applied to any valuation meta regression that is suitable to inform policy decisions we illustrate the approach for a prototype nationwide water quality improvement policy in the united states assuming that policy benefits are evaluated using benefit transfer based on a meta regression model of willingness to pay our results suggest that when evaluating nationwide water quality regulations with uncertain net benefits the voi from a typical water quality valuation study will almost certainly exceed the cost we also examine how voi varies with study design features and information gaps in the literature thereby illustrating how the approach can inform research priorities

how reliable are meta analyses for international benefit transfers meta analysis has increasingly been used to synthesise the environmental valuation literature but only a few test the use of these analyses for benefit transfer these are typically based on national studies only however meta analyses of valuation studies across countries are a potentially powerful tool for benefit transfer especially for environmental goods where the domestic literature is scarce we test the reliability of such international meta analytic transfers and find that even under conditions of homogeneity in valuation methods cultural and institutional conditions across countries and a meta analysis with large explanatory power the transfer errors could still be large further international meta analytic transfers do not on average perform better than simple value transfers averaging over domestic studies thus we question whether the use of meta analysis for practical benefit transfer achieves reliability gains justifying the increased effort however more meta analytic benefit transfer tests should be performed for other environmental goods and other countries before discarding international meta analysis as a tool for benefit transfer

income distribution and macroeconomics this paper analyzes the role of wealth distribution in macroeconomics through investment in human capital it is shown that in the presence of credit markets imperfections and indivisibilities in investment in human capital the initial distribution of wealth affects aggregate output and investment both in the short and in the long run as there are multiple steady states this paper therefore provides an additional explanation for the persistent differences in per capita output across countries furthermore the paper shows that cross country differences in macroeconomic adjustment to aggregate shocks can be attributed among other factors to differences in wealth and income distribution across countries

retirement saving with contribution payments and labor income as a benchmark for investments abstract in this paper we study the retirement saving problem from the point of view of a plan sponsor who makes contribution payments for the future retirement of an employee the plan sponsor considers the employee s labor income as investment benchmark in order to ensure the continuation of consumption habits after retirement we demonstrate that the demand for risky assets increases at low wealth levels due to the contribution payments we quantify the demand for hedging against changes in wage growth and find that it is relatively small we show that downside risk measures increase risk taking at both low and high levels of wealth

signals or noise explaining the variation in recreation benefit estimates this paper uses meta analysis to summarize the benefit estimates derived from travel cost recreation demand models after reviewing approximately 200 published and unpublished studies prepared from 1970 to 1986 77 were found to report either consumer surplus estimates or sufficient information to derive them using these estimates of the consumer surplus per unit of use from each study it was possible to evaluate the influence of variables describing the site characteristics the activities undertaken at each site the behavioral assumptions and the specification decisions the findings provide clear support for using econometric methods to summarize results from diverse empirical studies they highlight the important research issues in model development and offer a consistency check to the procedures used in benefit transfer analyses for policy evaluations

financial asset pricing theory and stochastic programming models for asset liability management a synthesis practical portfolio investment problems under uncertainty can be modeled well as multiperiod stochastic programs however the numerical optimization methods that need to be used to solve such models seriously limit the level of detail in the uncertainty about future asset rices and returns that can be incorporated somewhat surprisingly the question how this necessarily approximate description of the uncertainty should be constructed has received relatively little attention in the stochastic programming literature moreover many of the descriptions that have been used are not arbitrage free and therefore inconsistent with modern financial asset pricing theory in this paper we will present aggregation methods that can be used in combination with financial asset pricing models to obtain a description of the uncertainty that is arbitrage free consistent with observed market prices as well as concise enough for a stochastic programming model furthermore we will discuss how these aggregation methods can form the basis of an iterative solution approach

meta analytic benefit transfer of outdoor recreation economic values testing out of sample convergent validity a benefit transfer approach to recreationeconomic valuation using meta analysis isexamined since the meta regression modeltakes into account some of the study specificeffects on willingness to pay wtp estimates benefit transfer using meta analysis couldyield a valid wtp estimate of unstudiedrecreation resources the convergent validityof the meta analytic benefit transfer is testedusing out of sample original studies from theu s the analyses are performed usingpercentage difference paired t test regression and correlation tests the testsreveal mixed results on convergence betweenestimated wtp using meta analytic benefittransfer function btf and out of sampleoriginal wtp values there is a fairly highpercentage difference between the estimated andoriginal wtp values 80 88 and the meandifferences are statistically significant asshown by paired t tests however correlationand regression results consistently showsignificant positive relationships betweennational btf estimated and original wtp valuesindicating some level of convergence theresults show that the national btf outperformthe regional btf indicating a potential of thenational btf for recreation benefit transferwhen a first best primary valuation study isnot affordable

multiple bgps in a growth model with habit persistence this paper establishes multiple balanced growth paths in an otherwise standard competitive growth model without externality or distortions and with households preference dependent upon how his her consumption compares to a habit stock formed by his her own past consumption the key feature in our model is that consumption forms habits in combination with existing habits this model establishes multiple equilibria because habit persistence induces an internal intertemporal complementarity effect among consumption flows with current consumption reinforcing future consumption as a result there exist two balanced growth paths with one path exhibiting low consumption and habits and high economic growth and the other path exhibiting high consumption and habits and low growth that is not necessarily a development trap both steady states are saddles but global indeterminacy arises where a high balanced growth path co exists with a low balanced growth path where the two equilibrium paths cannot be pareto ranked and history need not matter for the selection of the equilibrium path

post tax optimization with stochastic programming abstract in this paper we consider a stochastic programming approach to multistage post tax portfolio optimization asset performance information is specified as a scenario tree generated by two alternative methods based on simulation and optimization we assume three tax wrappers involving the same instruments for an efficient investment strategy and determine optimal allocations to different instruments and wrappers the tax rules are integrated with the linear and mixed integer stochastic models to yield an overall tax and return efficient multistage portfolio the computational performance of these models is tested using a case study with different scenario trees our experiments show that optimal portfolios obtained by both linear programming and mixed integer stochastic models diversify over wrappers and the original capital is distributed among assets within each wrapper

habit formation in consumption and its implications for monetary policy models this paper explores a monetary policy model with habit formation for consumers in which consumers utility depends in part on current consumption relative to past consumption the empirical tests developed in the paper show that one can reject the hypothesis of no habit formation with tremendous condence largely because the habit formation model captures the gradual hump shaped response of real spending to various shocks the paper then embeds the habit consumption specication in a monetary policy model and nds that the responses of both spending and inflation to monetary policy actions are signicantly improved by this modication jel d12 e52 e43

saving growth and investment a macroeconomic analysis using a panel of countries this paper provides a descriptive analysis of the long and short run correlations among saving investment and growth rates for 123 countries over the period 1961 94 three results are robust across data sets and estimation methods i lagges saving rates are positively related to investment rates ii investment rates granger cause growth rates with a negative sign iii growth rates granger cause investment with a positive sign

meta analysis and benefit transfer for resource valuation addressing classical challenges with bayesian modeling abstract the use of meta regression models based on existing studies to estimate the value of resources at a new policy site has become a popular alternative to collecting original data in recent years there are two prevalent dilemmas associated with classical meta regression models the difference in the available set of regressors across source studies and the treatment of methodological explanatory variables in the construction of benefit transfer functions in this study we illustrate how these issues can be addressed efficiently within a bayesian meta regression framework we find that the bayesian model in contrast to its classical counterpart can estimate a relatively large set of parameters including indicators of unobserved study heterogeneity with reasonable accuracy even when the underlying meta sample is small the incorporation of information from regressor deficient source data in the specification of bayesian priors leads to a better model fit and tighter welfare estimates for benefit transfer in our application of freshwater angling

meta analysis benefit transfer and methodological covariates implications for transfer error meta regression models in the valuation literature demonstrate that willingness to pay estimates vary according to methodological factors neither theory nor characteristics of policy sites dictate the treatment of associated covariates within benefit transfer however and the literature provides few insights into potential impacts of common empirical treatments this paper introduces a method to systematically characterize the impact of methodological variables on transfer error using a repeated leave one out convergent validity framework the analysis contrasts errors for a hypothetical ideal case in which correct methodological covariate treatments are known to the realistic case in which the correct treatment is unknown results indicate that the common assumption of mean values for methodological covariates leads to only a modest increase in mean transfer error relative to that found in the hypothetical ideal case

market frictions technology adoption and economic growth this paper develops an endogenous growth model with labor market matching and technology adoption while labor market search and entry frictions lengthen technology diffusion exogenous technology arrival may creatively destruct jobs in the short run such interrelationships give rise to multiple equilibria global and local indeterminacy under which a small autonomous technological improvement may create a large growth effect we characterize the effects of exogenous technology arrival on equilibrium matching adoption effort wage and the overall dispersion of wages social inefficiency arises as a result of individuals failure to account for free rider thick matching job destruction effects in making technology adoption decision

high performance computing for asset liability management financial institutions require sophisticated tools for risk management for companywide risk management both sides of the balance sheet should be considered resulting in an integrated asset liability management approach stochastic programming models suit these needs well and have already been applied in the field of asset liability management to improve financial operations and risk management the dynamic aspect of the financial planning problems inevitably leads to multiple decision stages trading dates in the stochastic program and results in an explosion of dimensionality in this paper we show that dedicated model generation specialized solution techniques based on decomposition and high performance computing are the essential elements to tackle these large scale financial planning problems it turns out that memory management is a major bottleneck when solving very large problems given an efficient solution approach and a parallel computing facility we report on the solution of an asset liability management model for an actual dutch pension fund with 4 826 809 scenarios 12 469 250 constraints and 24 938 502 variables which is the largest stochastic linear program ever solved a closer look at the optimal decisions reveals that the initial asset mix is more stable for larger models demonstrating the potential benefits of the high performance computing approach for alm

dynamic asset allocation for varied financial markets under regime switching framework asset allocation among diverse financial markets is essential for investors especially under situations such as the financial crisis of 2008 portfolio optimization is the most developed method to examine the optimal decision for asset allocation we employ the hidden markov model to identify regimes in varied financial markets a regime switching model gives multiple distributions and this information can convert the static mean variance model into an optimization problem under uncertainty which is the case for unobservable market regimes we construct a stochastic program to optimize portfolios under the regime switching framework and use scenario generation to mathematically formulate the optimization problem in addition we build a simple example for a pension fund and examine the behavior of the optimal solution over time by using a rolling horizon simulation we conclude that the regime information helps portfolios avoid risk during left tail events

enhanced geospatial validity for meta analysis and environmental benefit transfer an application to water quality improvements meta regression models are commonly used within benefit transfer to estimate willingness to pay wtp for environmental quality improvements theory suggests that these estimates should be sensitive to geospatial factors including resource scale market extent and the availability of substitutes and complements valuation meta regression models addressing the quantity of non market commodities sometimes incorporate spatial variables that proxy for a subset of these effects however meta analyses of wtp for environmental quality generally omit geospatial factors such as these leading to benefit transfers that are invariant to these factors this paper reports on a meta regression model for water quality benefit transfer that incorporates spatially explicit factors predicted by theory to influence wtp the metadata are drawn from stated preference studies that estimate per household wtp for water quality changes in united states water bodies and combine primary study information with extensive geospatial data from external sources results find that geospatial variables are associated with significant wtp variations as predicted by theory and that inclusion of these variables reduces transfer errors

a multistage linear stochastic programming model for optimal corporate debt management abstract large corporations fund their capital and operational expenses by issuing bonds with a variety of indexations denominations maturities and amortization schedules we propose a multistage linear stochastic programming model that optimizes bond issuance by minimizing the mean funding cost while keeping leverage under control and insolvency risk at an acceptable level the funding requirements are determined by a fixed investment schedule with uncertain cash flows candidate bonds are described in a detailed and realistic manner a specific scenario tree structure guarantees computational tractability even for long horizon problems based on a simplified example we present a sensitivity analysis of the first stage solution and the stochastic efficient frontier of the mean risk trade off a realistic exercise stresses the importance of controlling leverage based on the proposed model a financial planning tool has been implemented and deployed for brazilian oil company petrobras

a mixed integer programming model for multistage mean variance post tax optimization abstract in this paper we introduce a mixed integer stochastic programming approach to mean variance post tax portfolio management this approach takes into account of risk in a multistage setting and allows general withdrawals from original capital the uncertainty on asset returns is specified as a scenario tree the risk across scenarios is addressed using the probabilistic approach of classical stochastic programming the tax rules are used with stochastic linear and mixed integer quadratic programming models to compute an overall tax and return risk efficient multistage portfolio the incorporation of the risk term in the model provides robustness and leads to diversification over wrappers and assets within each wrapper general withdrawals and risk aversion have an impact on the distribution of assets among wrappers computational results are presented using a study with different scenario trees in order to show the performance of these models

evaluating the performance of benefit transfer an empirical inquiry abstract benefit transfers are used by public agencies needing information on costs and benefits of policy decisions although scientific debate regarding the validity of benefit transfer is ongoing this article develops a methodology to evaluate the performance of direct benefit transfer and benefit function transfer and applies the methodology to two pairs of similar non market amenities empirical results indicate that benefit function transfer is more robust than transfer of average site benefits our results suggest that the circumstances under which benefit function transfer provides valid policy relevant information may be limited and that errors from applying benefit transfer can be quite large even across seemingly similar amenities

costly intermediation the big push and the big crash abstract why does financial activity generate large real effects we argue that this may reflect a multiplicity of equilibria due to dynamic interactions between worker s saving decisions and bank s monopolistic competition we show that the equilibrium responses of key aggregates to changes in investment uncertainty and intermediation costs depend crucially on intertemporal substitutability and aggregate employment small financial disturbances may cause the economy to shift between low and high employment equilibria thus providing explanation for the big push and the big crash the high employment high real interest rate equilibrium is consistent with the development experience of the financially repressed east asian economies prior to july 1997

a bank asset and liability management model in managing its assets and liabilities in light of uncertainties in cash flows cost of funds and return on investments a bank must determine its optimal trade off between risk return and liquidity in this paper we develop a multiperiod stochastic linear programming model alm that includes the essential institutional legal financial and bank related policy considerations and their uncertainties yet is computationally tractable for realistically sized problems a version of the model was developed for the vancouver city savings credit union for a 5 year planning period the results indicate that alm is theoretically and operationally superior to a corresponding deterministic linear programming model and that the effort required for the implementation of alm and its computational requirements are comparable to those of the deterministic model moreover the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the solutions are sensitive to the model s stochastic elements such as the asymmetry of cash flow distributions we also compare alm with the stochastic decision tree sdt model developed by s p bradley and d b crane alm is computationally more tractable on realistically sized problems than sdt and simulation results indicate that alm generates superior policies

why is consumption so smooth for thirty years it has been accepted that consumption is smooth because permanent income is smoother than measured income this paper considers the evidence for the contrary position that permanent income is in fact less smooth than measured income so that the smoothness of consumption cannot be straightforwardly explained by permanent income theory the paper argues that in postwar u s quarterly data consumption is smooth because it responds with a lag to changes in income

existence uniqueness and stability of equilibrium in an overlapping generations model with productive capital abstract this paper analyzes the existence uniqueness and stability of a steady state equilibrium in an overlapping generations model with productive capital it is shown that for any feasible set of well behaved preferences there exists a production function that satisfies the inada conditions under which the economy experiences global contraction and the steady state equilibrium is characterized by the absence of production and consumption the study establishes a strengthened inada condition which is necessary to preclude global contraction and sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique and globally stable non trivial steady state equilibrium

optimization of electricity retailer s contract portfolio subject to risk preferences when an electricity retailer faces volume risk in meeting load and spot price risk in purchasing from the wholesale market conventional risk management optimization methods can be quite inefficient for the management of an electricity contract portfolio in this context we develop a multistage stochastic optimization approach which accounts for the uncertainties of both electricity prices and loads and which permits the specification of conditional value at risk requirements to optimize hedging across intermediate stages in the planning horizons our experimental results based on real data from nordpool suggest that the modeling of price and load correlations is particularly important the sensitivity analysis is extended to characterize the behavior of retailers with different risk attitudes thus we observe that a risk neutral retailer is more susceptible to price related than load related uncertainties in terms of the expected cost of satisfying the load and that a risk averse retailer is especially sensitive to the drivers of the forward risk premium

growth and saving among individuals and households the lifecycle theory of saving and consumption predicts that changes in an economy s rate of economic growth will affect its aggregate saving rate by changing the lifetime resources of younger people relative to older people however studies that track the saving behavior of cohorts of household heads over time as they age have yielded estimates of age saving profiles that are too flat for growth to have much effect on the aggregate saving rate one problem with the cohort approach is that multigenerational households are common in many counties and the age saving profiles of households may be quite different from the age saving profiles of individuals that make up households in this paper we propose a method for estimating individual age saving profiles using household data this method is applied to data from taiwan and thailand we find that the individual method yields results that are more favorable to the lifecycle model these results imply that changes in the rate of economic growth may in som

stochastic network programming for financial planning problems several financial planning problems are posed as dynamic generalized network models with stochastic parameters examples include asset allocation for portfolio selection international cash management and programmed trading arbitrage despite the large size of the resulting stochastic programs the network structure can be exploited within the solution strategy giving rise to efficient implementations empirical results are presented indicating the benefits of the stochastic network approach for the asset allocation case

environmental value transfer state of the art and future prospects abstract the main objectives of the paper are to 1 give an overview of the state of the art of environmental value transfer 2 discuss its prospects and potential role in cba as a decision support tool and 3 provide further guidelines for proper use and application environmental value or benefit transfer is a technique in which the results of studies on monetary environmental valuation are applied to new policy contexts the technique is controversial not least because of academic and political reservations over the usefulness and technical feasibility of economic valuation tools to demonstrate the importance of environmental values in project or programme appraisals testing of environmental value transfer so far has been unable to validate the practice taking into account the conditions set out in the literature for valid and reliable value transfer most transfers appear to result in substantial transfer errors this paper discusses why and addresses the question of which factors may have been overlooked it is argued that the problem is much more fundamental than previously acknowledged strict guidelines in terms of quantitative adjustment mechanisms to valid value transfer are meaningless if the more fundamental issue of differences in the very nature of the values elicited is not addressed at the same time

a hybrid simulation optimisation scenario model for asset liability management abstract in this paper we desciibe a decision support model to sustain management of pension funds in the strategic planning of the available asset and liability policy instruments a main characteristic of the approach is that the relevant risk drivers are modelled by scenarios rather than by probability distributions we will describe the scenario generation methodology and how the scenarios are used by pension fund managers to simulate and improve asset liability strategies until a strategy is identified which is agreed upon by all who carry responsibility for the pension fund and her sponsors and trustees next we will describe how this process of managerial learning can be improved by a hybrid simulation optimisation method which applies concepts from the field of non linear global optimisation to determine the asset allocations which determine efficient frontiers of contribution rates and downside insolvency risks we will conclude by showing that the application of the developed models to a particular pension fund leads to the annulment of the infeasibility of the current asset liability policy on the one hand and to a reduction of the expected yearly contributions of us 100 million on the other

equity and efficiency in human capital investment the local connection a general model of community formation and human capital accumulation with social spillovers and decentralized school funding is used to analyse the causes of economic segregation and its consequences for equity and efficiency significant polarization arises from minor differences in endowments preferences or access to capital markets this makes income inequality more persistent across generations but the same need not be true for wealth equilibrium stratification tends to be excessive resulting in low aggregate surplus whether state equalization of school resources can remedy these problems hinges on how purchased social and family inputs interact in education and in mobility decisions

scenario generation and stochastic programming models for asset liability management in this paper we develop and test scenario generation methods for asset liability management models we propose a multi stage stochastic programming model for a dutch pension fund both randomly sampled event trees and event trees fitting the mean and the covariance of the return distribution are used for generating the coefficients of the stochastic program in order to investigate the performance of the model and the scenario generation procedures we conduct rolling horizon simulations the average cost and the risk of the stochastic programming policy are compared to the results of a simple fixed mix model we compare the average switching behavior of the optimal investment policies our results show that the performance of the multi stage stochastic program could be improved drastically by choosing an appropriate scenario generation method

social norms savings behavior and growth we argue that many goods and decisions are not allocated or made through markets we interpret an agent s status as a ranking device that determines how well he or she fares in the nonmarket sector the existence of a nonmarket sector can endogenously generate a concern for relative position in for example the income distribution so that higher income implies higher status moreover it can naturally yield multiple equilibria it is thus possible to explain differences in growth rates across countries without recourse to differences in underlying preferences technologies or endowments different social organizations lead to different reduced form preferences which lead to different growth rates

consumption externalities habit formation and equilibrium efficiency we analyze the welfare properties of the competitive equilibrium in a capital accumulation model where individual preferences are subject to both habit formation and consumption spillovers using an additive specification for preferences according to which the argument in the utility function is a linear combination of present and past values of own consumption and consumption spillovers we analyze the circumstances under which these spillovers are a source of inefficiency it is shown that consumption externalities have to interact with habits in order to generate an inefficient dynamic equilibrium finally we characterize optimal tax policies aimed at restoring efficient decentralized paths

modeling financial reinsurance in the casualty insurance business via stochastic programming abstract in this paper we examine the rationale for financial reinsurance in the casualty insurance business as opposed to regular reinsurance financial reinsurance refers to an investment strategy that uses the financial markets to hedge insurance risk the casualty insurer takes positions in derivatives on underlying assets whose prices are highly positively or negatively correlated with specific insurance risks we formulate the asset liability management problem for a mutually owned casualty insurer in the context of a dynamic stochastic portfolio selection model using numerical studies of the resulting large scale non linear program we compare properties of optimal portfolios with and without the possibility of financial reinsurance we let an alleged representative policyholder endowed with a linear plus negative exponential utility function evaluate the various optimal portfolios when policyholders utility functions exhibit reasonable levels of risk aversion we find that portfolios reflecting financial reinsurance dominate portfolios that are not financially reinsured

the validity of environmental benefits transfer further empirical testing this paper provides further empirical evidence of the validity of environmental benefits transfer based on cv studies by expanding the analysis to include control factors which have not been accounted for in previous studies these factors refer to differences in respondent attitudes traditional population characteristics were taken into account but these variables do not explain why respondents from the same socio economic group may still hold different beliefs norms or values and hence have different attitudes and consequently state different wtp amounts the test results are mixed the function transfer approach is valid in one case but is rejected in the 3 other cases investigated in this paper we provide further evidence that in the case of statistically valid benefits transfer the function approach results in a more robust benefits transfer than the unit value approach we also show that the equality of coefficient estimates is a necessary but insufficient condition for valid benefit function transfer and discuss the implications for previous and future validity testing

a stochastic programming model for money management abstract portfolio managers in the new fixed income securities have to cope with various forms of uncertainty in addition to the usual interest rate changes uncertainy in the timing and amount of cashflows changes in the default and other risk premia and so on complicate the portfolio manager s problem we develop here a multi period dynamic portfolio optimization model to address this problem the model specifies a sequence of investment decisions over time that maximize the expected utility of return at the end of the planning horizon the model is a two stage stochastic program with recourse the dynamics of interest rates cashflow uncertainty and liquidity default and other risk premia are explicitly modeled through postulated scenarios simulation procedures are developed to generate these scenarios the optimization models are then integrated with the simulation procedures extensive validation experiments are carried out to establish the effectiveness of the model in dealing with uncertainty in particular the model is compared against the popular portfolio immunization strategy and against a portfolio based on mean absolute deviation optimization

the effect of common sources of regression error on benefit estimates discussions of the sources of error in recreation demand analysis are common in the existing literature the most traditional line of thought e g gum and martin considers the error component in predicting the individual s recreation behavior to arise from unmeasured socioeconomic factors others e g hanemann attribute at least some of this error to fundamental randomness in human behavior applied statisticians e g hiett and worrall on the other hand suggest that recall of annual number of recreational trips i e the quantity demanded is subject to substantial error still others e g brown et al have argued that recall of explanatory variables such as travel expenses contains error despite the discussion of potential error sources there is no work which relates the sources of error in the demand relationship with benefit measurement 1 of practical importance in recreational demand estimation is whether error assumptions have an influence on welfare measures since it is for public policy decision purposes that recreational demand estimation is usually undertaken will the estimated consumer surplus derived from demand analysis be independent of the assumed source of the error in the regression the purpose of this paper is to explore how the assumptions about sources of error influence estimates of recreation benefits a discussion of the various sources of error in de

benefit transfer via preference calibration prudential algebra for policy this paper proposes a new approach to benefit transfer the method assumes a specific form for preferences and uses available benefit information to identify and calibrate the preference parameters to match the existing benefit estimates this approach assures economic consistency of the transfers benefit measures can never be inconsistent with household income the logic also offers a series of potentially observable predictions that can be used to gauge the plausibility of benefit transfers when multiple benefit estimates from different methods are available such as hedonic property value travel cost demand and contingent valuation the framework uses the definition of the benefit concept from each method in a single preference function to reconcile differences it provides a specific way to take account of baseline conditions and scope effects i e the size of the proposed change consistently in the transfer the method is illustrated using estimates for benefit measure changes in water quality from three studies travel cost demand hedonic property value and contingent valuation analysis q26

endogenous fertility multiple growth paths and economic convergence abstract this paper extends the cass koopmans optimal growth model to allow for endogenous fertility choice it is shown that if agents choose their fertility rate then the net rate of return on capital marginal product of capital minus the population growth rate may not be monotonically decreasing in capital in this case multiple steady states and growth paths may emerge which can explain the persistent differentials in income between poor and rich countries as well as the existence of development miracles and disasters the paper provides also empirical evidence which supports the existence of multiple convergence groups and is consistent with the theoretical model

choice experiments site similarity and benefits transfer choice experiments are designed to account for variations in environmental resources and site characteristics as well as potential implications of these variations for willingness to pay as a result choice experiment results may be well suited for benefits transfer it is unclear however whether the flexibility of choice experiments renders the similarity of study and transfer sites less critical for transfer validity drawing from identical choice experiments conducted in different rhode island communities this model assesses the extent to which error in function based benefits transfer is related to the similarity of communities across a variety of observable dimensions results suggest that site similarity at least across some dimensions influences the validity of choice experiment benefits transfers however the use of some measures of similarity as indicators of transfer error may provide misleading results

applying cvar for decentralized risk management of financial companies abstract over the past decade financial companies have merged diverse areas including investment banking insurance retail banking and trading operations despite this diversity many global financial firms suffered severe losses during the recent recession to reduce enterprise risks and increase profits we apply a decentralized risk management strategy based on a stochastic optimization model we extend the decentralized approach with the cvar risk metric showing the advantages of cvar over traditional risk measures such as value at risk an example taken from the earthquake insurance area illustrates the concepts

on the macroeconomic policy implications of habit persistence this paper studies some policy implications of the habit persistence model of harl e ryder and geoffrey m heal 1973 for a small open economy it is shown that often the policy implications of the model that are consistent with the findings in the asset pricing literature are in conflict with the more widely understood implications that were previously derived from hirofumi uzawa s 1968 utility function copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

the performance of stochastic dynamic and fixed mix portfolio models the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how to evaluate stochastic programming models and more specifically to compare two different approaches to asset liability management the first uses multistage stochastic programming while the other is a static approach based on the so called constant rebalancing or fixed mix particular attention is paid to the methodology used for the comparison the two alternatives are tested over a large number of realistic scenarios created by means of simulation we find that due to the ability of the stochastic programming model to adapt to the information in the scenario tree it dominates the fixed mix approach

on the existence of balanced growth equilibrium the authors characterize the class of dynamic models that allow for the most commonly used types of sustained economic growth balanced and asymptotically balanced they show that under a constant returns to scale technology asymptotically constant discount rate and asymptotically constant elasticity of marginal felicity are not only necessary but also sufficient conditions for the existence of a n asymptotically balanced growth equilibrium path the authors provide examples of recursive utility models that accept a n asymptotically balanced growth equilibrium and discuss their implications on cross country differences in growth rates as well as on savings behavior and wealth distribution copyright 1997 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

a general two sector model of endogenous growth with human and physical capital balanced growth and transitional dynamics abstract we examine a two sector endogenous growth model with general constant return to scale production technologies governing the evolution of human and physical capital we prove the existence uniqueness and saddle path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium a dual approach drawing on techniques from international trade theory is used to provide complete characterization of the transitional dynamics of consumption goods and education outputs human and physical capital inputs and the relative price of human capital investment we investigate the long run effects of changes in time preference and factor taxation and show the emergence of instability or indeterminacy when factor taxes are too distortionary journal of economic literatureclassification number d90

self fulfilling expectations and economic growth a model of technology adoption and industrialization in this work the authors construct a model that integrates both industrialization and endogenous growth they feature the role of technology adoption in sustaining growth and achieving industrialization the authors economy contains multiple equilibria for an initial history they found that only self fulfilling expectations matter in selecting an equilibrium whereas history plays no role the authors equilibrium is shown to involve a threshold property when the economy starts above this threshold the economy is able to sustain growth otherwise it is not both the rate of economic growth and the process of industrialization increase gradually and approach an upper hound copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association