liquidation equilibrium with seniority and hidden cdo the aim of our paper is to price credit derivatives written on a single name when this name is a bank indeed due to the special structure of the balance sheet of a bank and to the interconnections with other institutions of the financial system the standard pricing formulas do not apply and their use can imply severe mispricing the pricing of credit derivatives written on a single bank name requires a joint analysis of the risks of all banks directly or indirectly interconnected with the bank of interest each name cannot be priced in isolation but the banking system must be treated as a whole it is necessary to analyze the contagion of losses among banks especially the equilibrium of joint defaults and recovery rates at liquidation time we show the existence and uniqueness of such an equilibrium then the standard pricing formulas are modified by adding a premium to capture the contagion effects

bank capital liquidity and systemic risk we analyze the impact of capital adequacy regulation on bank insolvency and aggregate investment we develop a model of the banking system that is characterized by the interaction of many heterogeneous banks with the real sector interbank credit relations as a consequence of bank liquidity management and an insolvency mechanism this allows us to study the impact of capital adequacy regulation on systemic risk in particular we can analyze the impact of regulation on contagious defaults arising from mutual credit relations we show that the impact of capital adequacy on systemic stability is ambiguous and that systemic risk might actually increase as a consequence of imposing capital constraints on banks furthermore we analyze the indirect consequences of capital adequacy regulation that are transmitted to the real economy by their impact on equilibrium interbank rates and thus the opportunity costs of liquidity within the banking system

swap rates and credit quality this article presents a model for valuing claims subject to default by both contracting parties such as swaps and forwards with counterparties of different default risk the promised cash flows of a swap are discounted by a switching discount rate that at any given state and time is equal to the discount rate of the counterparty for whom the swap is currently out of the money that is a liability the impact of credit risk asymmetry and of netting is presented through both theory and numerical examples which include interest rate and currency swaps this article presents a model for valuing claims subject to default by both contracting parties such as swaps and forwards this extends the valuation model for defaultable claims proposed by duffie and singleton 1994 to cases in which the two counterparties have asymmetric default risk the extension permits a reexamination of the impact of credit risk on swap rates while the valuation model applies to all forms of contingent claims in which both contracting parties are at risk to default such as forward contracts we focus on swaps for purposes of illustration for example consider a 5 year interest rate swap between a given party paying a floating rate such as the london inter bank offered rate libor and another counterparty paying a fixed rate replacing the given fixed rate counterparty with a lower quality counterparty whose bond yields are 100 basis points higher increases the swap rate by roughly 1 basis point using our model and typical parameters for libor rate processes this credit impact on swap rates is approximately linear within the range of normally encountered credit quality for a 5 year currency swap given a foreign exchange rate with 15 percent volatility our model shows the impact of credit risk asymmetry on the market swap rate to be roughly 10 fold greater than that for interest rate swaps that is approximately 10 basis points in swap rate per 100 basis points in bond yield credit spread the main goal of this article is to provide a simple and theoretically consistent model allowing such computations

network models and financial stability abstract systemic risk is a key concern for central banks charged with safeguarding overall financial stability in this paper we investigate how systemic risk is affected by the structure of the financial system we construct banking systems that are composed of a number of banks that are connected by interbank linkages we then vary the key parameters that define the structure of the financial system including its level of capitalisation the degree to which banks are connected the size of interbank exposures and the degree of concentration of the system and analyse the influence of these parameters on the likelihood of knock on defaults first we find that the better capitalised banks are the more resilient is the banking system against contagious defaults and this effect is non linear second the effect of the degree of connectivity is non monotonic i e initially a small increase in connectivity increases the contagion effect but after a certain threshold value connectivity improves the ability of a banking system to absorb shocks third the size of interbank liabilities tends to increase the risk of knock on default even if banks hold capital against such exposures fourth more concentrated banking systems are shown to be prone to larger systemic risk all else equal in an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown we finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry tiering inherent in the structure of the banking system a number of our results have important implications for public policy which this paper also draws out

why interest rates react to money announcements an explanation from the foreign exchange market abstract when the fed announces a money supply greater than had been expected interest rates rise why one explanation is that the market raises its estimate of the future rates of money growth and inflation and bids up nominal interest rates we offer contrary evidence on such days the dollar appreciates not depreciates an alternative explanation is that the market perceives the change in the money stock as a transitory fluctuation that the fed will reverse in the future the anticipated future tightening raises today s real interest rate causes a capital inflow and appreciates the dollar the result in fact observed

the evolution of federal reserve credibility 1978 1984 a random coefficients kalman filter model of the response of commodity prices to weekly m1 announcements indicates a gradual evolution in the credibility of the federal reserve as an inflation fighter the october 1979 announcement of a change in monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation did not result in an immediate increase in credibility and the october 1982 announcement of a policy reversal did not diminish credibility credibility does vary with the underlying rate of inflation which shows that markets pay attention to policy results not simply policy announcements copyright 1989 by mit press

an axiomatic approach to systemic risk systemic risk refers to the risk of collapse of an entire complex system as a result of the actions taken by the individual component entities or agents that comprise the system systemic risk is an issue of great concern in modern financial markets as well as more broadly in the management of complex business and engineering systems we propose an axiomatic framework for the measurement and management of systemic risk based on the simultaneous analysis of outcomes across agents in the system and over scenarios of nature our framework defines a broad class of systemic risk measures that accomodate a rich set of regulatory preferences this general class of systemic risk measures captures many specific measures of systemic risk that have recently been proposed as special cases and highlights their implicit assumptions moreover the systemic risk measures that satisfy our conditions yield decentralized decompositions i e the systemic risk can be decomposed into risk due to individual agents furtherm

backtesting marginal expected shortfall and related systemic risk measures this paper proposes an original approach for backtesting systemic risk measures this backtesting approach makes it possible to assess the systemic risk measure forecasts used to identify the finan

monitoring vulnerability and impact diffusion in financial networks abstract in this paper we propose novel risk related network measurements to identify the roles that financial institutions play as potential targets or sources of contagion we derive theoretical properties and provide a clear systemic risk interpretation for the proposed measures devised upon the notion of communicability in networks we introduce the impact susceptibility index which indicates whether market participants are locally or remotely vulnerable we show how this index can be used as a financial stability monitoring tool and apply it to analyze the brazilian financial market we find that non banking institutions are potentially remotely vulnerable in certain periods while banking institutions are not susceptible to indirect impacts to address the perspective of market participants as sources of contagion we propose the impact diffusion influence index which captures the potential influence of financial institutions on propagating impacts in the network we unveil the presence of a portion of small medium banking institutions that is consistently more influential than large banks in potentially diffusing impacts throughout the network regarding financial system stability regulators should identify the entities that play these two roles as they can render the system more risky

contagion and risk sharing on the inter bank market abstract increasing inter bank lending has an ambiguous impact on financial stability using a computational model with endogenous bank behavior and interest rates we identify the conditions under which inter bank lending promotes stability through risk sharing or provides a channel through which failures may spread in response to large economy wide shocks more inter bank lending relationships worsen systemic events for smaller shocks the opposite effect is observed as such no inter bank market structure maximizes stability under all conditions in contrast deposit insurance costs are always reduced under greater numbers of inter bank lending relationships a range of regulations are considered to increase system stability

risk in a large claims insurance market with bipartite graph structure we model the influence of sharing large exogeneous losses to the reinsurance market by a bipartite graph using pareto tailed claims and multivariate regular variation we obtain asymptotic results for the value at risk and the conditional tail expectation we show that the dependence on the network structure plays a fundamental role in their asymptotic behaviour as is well known in a nonnetwork setting if the pareto exponent is larger than 1 then for the individual agent reinsurance company diversification is beneficial whereas when it is less than 1 concentration on a few objects is the better strategy an additional aspect of this paper is the amount of uninsured losses that are covered by society in our setting of networks of agents diversification is never detrimental to the amount of uninsured losses if the pareto tailed claims have finite mean diversification is never detrimental to society or individual agents by contrast if the pareto tailed claims have infinite mean a conflicting s

does immigration induce native flight from public schools into private schools abstract the paper tests whether native born american families respond to inflows of immigrants by sending their children to private school the analysis uses 1980 and 1990 census data from 132 metropolitan areas for primary school students no significant relation between immigration and private school enrolment is found for secondary schools a significant link emerges for every four immigrants who arrive in public high schools it is estimated that one native student switches to a private school white students account for most of this flight natives appear to respond mainly to immigrant children who speak a language other than english at home

monetary policy surprises and interest rates choosing between the inflation revelation and excess sensitivity hypotheses author affiliation willem thorbecke george mason university and senior fellow research institute of economy trade and industry 1 3 1 kasumigaseki chiyoda ku tokyo 100 8901 japan tel 81 3 35018286 e mail wthorbec gmu edu corresponding author hanjiang zhang department of finance mccombs school of business university of texas at austin 1 university station b6000 austin tx 78712 usa e mail hanjiang zhang mccombs utexas edu acknowledgment we thank the co editor kent kimbrough two anonymous referees and seminar participants at the research institute of economy trade and industry for many helpful comments we also thank andrew swiston for generously providing us data on unexpected changes in the federal funds rate target 1 introductionwhy do increases in the federal reserve s fed s target for the federal funds rate raise interest rates on long term treasury securities one might expect that contractionary monetary policy would raise short term rates because of a liquidity effect and reduce long term rates by lowering expected inflation yet cook and hahn 1989 reported that increases in the fed s target for the federal funds rate from september 1974 to september 1979 raised interest rates at all horizons similarly kuttner 2001 found that unanticipated increases in the federal funds rate target over the june 1989 to february 2000 period increased interest rates at all maturities one interpretation of the results of cook and hahn 1989 and kuttner 2001 is that contractionary monetary policy raises longer term real interest rates the nominal interest rate equals the real interest rate plus the expected inflation rate if contractionary monetary policy lowers expected inflation or leaves it unchanged then evidence that it increases the nominal interest rate implies that it must also be increasing the real interest rate romer and romer 2000 provided an alternative explanation for these findings they showed that the fed has substantially more information about future inflation than is available from commercial forecasts their results imply that the optimal strategy for individuals with access to both the fed s forecasts and commercial forecasts would be to rely exclusively on the fed s forecasts they also demonstrated that federal reserve policy actions reveal some of the fed s private information about inflation an increase in the federal funds rate target could thus increase interest rates by raising expectations of future inflation gurkaynak sack and swanson 2005a presented evidence indicating that increases in the federal funds rate target have the opposite effect lowering expected inflation from 1990 2002 they found that unexpected increases in the funds rate target lower the one year forward rate 10 years ahead they also found that real long term forward rates derived from inflation indexed treasury securities do not respond to monetary policy surprises while the compensation for inflation responds with a significant negative coefficient to positive innovations in the federal funds rate target they interpreted these findings to mean that surprise increases in the federal funds rate target lower future expected inflation their conclusion is thus exactly the opposite of romer and romer s 2000 information revelation explanation ellingsen and soderstrom 2001 presented a model that encompasses the models of romer and romer 2000 and gurkaynak sack and swanson 2005a in their model unanticipated changes in the central bank rate can occur because the central bank has private information about the economy or because the central bank changes its preferences for inflation stabilization relative to output stabilization romer and romer focused on the first effect and gurkaynak sack and swanson focused on the second campbell 1995 noted that the effect of funds rate increases on inflation expectations should depend on the fed s credibility in fighting inflation

a network model of financial system resilience abstract we examine the role of macroeconomic fluctuations asset market liquidity and network structure in determining contagion and aggregate losses in a stylized financial system systemic instability is explored in a financial network comprising three distinct but interconnected sets of agents domestic banks overseas banks and firms calibrating the model to advanced country banking sector data this preliminarily model generates broadly sensible aggregate loss distributions which are bimodal in nature we demonstrate how systemic crises may occur and analyse how our results are influenced by firesale externalities and the feedback effects from curtailed lending in the macroeconomy we also illustrate the resilience of our model financial system to stress scenarios with sharply rising corporate default rates and falling asset prices

decentralized clearing in financial networks we consider a situation in which agents have mutual claims on each other summarized in a liability matrix agents assets might be insufficient to satisfy their liabilities leading to defaults in case of default bankruptcy rules are used to specify the way agents are going to be rationed a clearing payment matrix is a payment matrix consistent with the prevailing bankruptcy rules that satisfies limited liability and priority of creditors since clearing payment matrices and the corresponding values of equity are not uniquely determined we provide bounds on the possible levels equity can take unlike the existing literature which studies centralized clearing procedures we introduce a large class of decentralized clearing processes we show the convergence of any such process in finitely many iterations to the least clearing payment matrix when the unit of account is sufficiently small all decentralized clearing processes lead essentially to the same value of equity as a centralized clearing proce

gender and race heterogeneity the impact of students with limited english on native students performance recent evidence suggests that exposure to a larger share of limited english le students is associated with a slight decline in performance for students at the top of the achievement distribution in this paper we explore whether le peer effects differ by gender and race utilizing school by year fixed effect methods that allow us to address possible endogeneity with respect to the schools students attend we find evidence of heterogeneous peer effects of le students on natives specifically we find no le student peer effects on females achievement in math and reading but significant negative effects on males and black students

micro level transmission of monetary policy shocks the trading book channel abstract we open the black box of the monetary policy transmission mechanism with a granular model that considers the balance sheet composition and network relationships of each economic agent though there are several well documented channels through which monetary policy operates we focus on the overlooked trading book channel which arises because of adjustments in the accounting value of trading book exposures on banks balance sheets that have to be marked to market when interest rates change variations in banks net worth due these adjustments are used as input to a network model that incorporates the financial and corporate sectors the framework permits us to determine the effects of interest rate changes on every bank and firm in the economy and any second round contagion effects in the short run we apply the model to a comprehensive database of brazilian banks and firms from 2015 to 2020 we find that interest rate shocks affect more strongly financial stability in periods of monetary policy tightening we also find notable asymmetric effects of positive and negative interest rate shocks in the brazilian economy with positive interest rate shocks affecting more financial stability finally our results also suggest a non linear relationship between interest rate changes and financial stability reinforcing the need to mitigate monetary policy shocks through interest rate smoothing and adequate communication and transparency to society

bilateral exposures and systemic solvency risk en utilisant une structure des etats financiers des banques qui tient compte de leurs expositions bilaterales en termes d actions et de prets on developpe un modele structurel de faillite ce modele permet de distinguer les facteurs exogenes et endogenes dont depend la faillite on prouve l existence et l unicite de l equilibre de liquidation on etudie les consequences des chocs exogenes sur le systeme bancaire et on mesure le phenomene de contagion on illustre l usage de cette approche en l appliquant au systeme bancaire francais

the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s abstract this paper examines the influence of monetary policy on interest rates by estimating the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target the federal reserve s policy instrument on market interest rates in the 1970s we find that changes in the target caused large movements in short term rates and smaller but significant movements in intermediate and long term rates we hypothesize that the similarity of the reactions of three six and twelve month rates to changes in the target offers a possible explanation for the lack of support for the expectations theory from studies that have tested the theory using these rates

non native speakers of english in the classroom what are the effects on pupil performance there has been an increase in the number of children going to school in england who do not speak english as a first language we investigate whether this has an impact on the educational outcomes of native english speakers at the end of primary school we show that the negative correlation observed in the raw data is mainly an artefact of selection non native speakers are more likely to attend school with disadvantaged native speakers we attempt to identify a causal impact of changes in the percentage of non native speakers our results suggest zero effect and rule out negative effects

the effect of the fed s large scale asset purchases on inflationary expectations in 2008 u s demand collapsed and triggered deflation the fed employed large scale asset purchases lsap to fight deflation how did news of lsap affect inflationary expectations if investors believed that lsap would raise inflation they would sell assets exposed to inflation and purchase inflation hedges this would lower the prices of assets that are harmed by inflation and raise the prices of assets that benefit from inflation examining the relationship between asset price changes and inflation sensitivities can thus shed light on how financial markets process lsap news results across 60 assets indicate that initially lsap announcements lowered expected inflation only as inflation approached its target did news of lsap raise expected inflation

federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates this paper tests for the existence of asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public by examining federal reserve and commercial inflation forecasts it demonstrates that the federal reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters it also shows that monetary policy actions provide signals of the federal reserve s information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals these findings may explain why long term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy jel e52 e43 d82 asymmetric information between the federal reserve and the public is a phenomenon that is often posited but rarely tested numerous models of central bank behavior for example show that the existence of asymmetric information has important implications for the effectiveness of policy and the consequences of dynamic inconsistency yet there

can monetary policy influence long term interest rates it depends i introduction a stated goal of u s monetary policy is to maintain full employment in the u s economy 1 to do so however means the federal reserve must be capable of stabilizing aggregate demand particularly the historically volatile category of investment spending as this form of spending is highly sensitive to long term interest rates one implication of the full employment goal for u s monetary policy is that the federal reserve should be able to influence long term interest rates an important question then is whether u s monetary policy actually has any meaningful influence over long term interest rates a number of studies in recent years have examined this question but have come to different conclusions some studies show monetary policy has a sizeable and statistically significant effect on long term interest rates whereas others show the opposite the uncertainty created by this lack of consensus makes it difficult for the federal reserve to determine its impact on long term interest rates it is our objective in this paper to shed new empirical light on this murky relationship between monetary policy and long term interest rates we do so by looking at monetary policy innovations to the monetary base in an estimated vector autoregression var to see how monetary policy shocks impact the entire term structure of u s treasury interest rates 2 other studies that have used vars to examine this relationship have relied on innovations to the federal funds rate as their measure of monetary policy shocks berument and froyen 2006 berument and froyen 2009 edelberg and marshall 1996 evans and marshall 1998 this approach has become problematic as the federal funds rate has grown to be more predictable in recent times and thus less capable of generating monetary policy surprises in estimated vars our approach does not have this problem our study also has richer results than found in previous studies because we identify shocks to the money multiplier and real money demand in addition to the policy shock to the monetary base this allows us to examine the effect of all three monetary shocks on long term interest rates a final improvement that our study brings to this literature is that it uses long run identifying restrictions previous studies rely on short run contemporaneous restrictions that constrain the short run dynamics of the var our long run restrictions avoid this issue while at the same time imposing long run monetary neutrality on the monetary shocks for these reasons our study provides a fresh take on the relationship between monetary policy and long term interest rates using this approach we find that contrary to what the previous var studies show the federal reserve can meaningfully influence the entire term structure of interest rates we also find however that federal reserve can do so only if it maintains its inflation fighting credibility the rest of the paper proceeds as follows first we review previous findings on this issue and use them to help motivate our study second we outline the empirical methods we use to estimate the relationship between monetary policy shocks and long term interest rates third we discuss our data and construction of endogenous variables fourth we report our findings and examine how the results change over sub periods fifth the robustness of our findings are checked by examining how important the faust and leeper 1997 critique is to our identification strategy finally we conclude by discussing the implications for monetary policy ii previous findings motivating this study over the past decade there has been a spate of studies on the relationship between monetary policy and long term interest rates the methods and findings from this empirical research can be grouped into two categories on one hand there have been a number of studies using single equation models with daily data that find unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate can have a statistically significant and sizeable effect on long term interest rates beechey 2007 berument and froyen 2009 cochrane and piazzesi 2002 ellingsten and soderstrom 2003 ellingsen soderstrom and masseng 2004 gurkaynak sack and swanson 2005 kuttner 2001 poole et al

too connected to fail inferring network ties from price co movements we use extreme value theory methods to infer conventionally unobservable connections between financial institutions from joint extreme movements in credit default swap spreads and equity returns estimated pairwise co crash probabilities identify significant connections among up to 186 financial institutions prior to the crisis of 2007 2008 financial institutions that were very central prior to the crisis were more likely to be bailed out during the crisis or receive the status of systemically important institutions this result remains intact also after controlling for indicators of too big to fail concerns systemic systematic and idiosyncratic risks both credit default swap cds based and equity based connections are significant predictors of bailouts supplementary materials for this article are available online

an axiomatization of the proportional rule in financial networks the most important rule to determine payments in real life bankruptcy problems is the proportional rule many such bankruptcy problems are characterized by network aspects and the values of the ag

inflation targeting a new framework for monetary policy he world s central bankers and their staffs meet regularly in venues from basle to washington to share ideas and discuss common problems perhaps these frequent meetings help explain why changes in the tactics and strategy of monetary policymaking such as the adoption of money growth targets in the 1970s the intensification of efforts to reduce inflation in the 1980s and the recent push for increased institutional independence for central banks tend to occur in many countries more or less simultaneously whatever their source major changes in the theory and practice of central banking are of great importance for both individual countries and the international economy in this article we discuss a new strategy for monetary policy known as inflation targeting which has sparked much interest and debate among central bankers and monetary economists in recent years this approach is characterized as the name suggests by the announcement of official target ranges for the inflation rate at one or more horizons and by explicit acknowledgment that low and stable inflation is the overriding goal of monetary policy other important features of inflation targeting include increased communication with the public about the plans and objectives of the monetary policymakers and in many cases increased accountability of the central bank

market perceptions of federal reserve policy and the weekly monetary announcements abstract in october 1979 the federal reserve altered its operating procedures emphasizing control of the growth rate of the money stock was the fed able to gain credibility in the market the paper investigates this question by examining the reactions of spot and expected future exchange rates foreign interest rates and long run domestic forward interest rates to the weekly federal reserve announcements of m l both before and after october 1979 the empirical evidence points out that the fed did gain credibility but was unable to establish full credibility the market reactions are consistent with the hypothesis that market participants attached a positive probability to the event that the fed may at some point in the future abandon its money stock targets

efficiency and stability of a financial architecture with too interconnected to fail institutions abstract the regulation of large interconnected financial institutions has become a key policy issue to improve financial stability regulators have proposed limiting banks size and interconnectedness i estimate a network based model of the over the counter interbank lending market in the us and quantify the efficiency stability implications of this policy trading efficiency decreases with limits on interconnectedness because the intermediation chains become longer while restricting the interconnectedness of banks improves stability the effect is non monotonic stability also improves with higher liquidity requirements when banks have access to liquidity during the crisis and when failed banks depositors maintain confidence in the banking system

systemic risk mitigation in financial networks abstract we propose a multi period clearing framework where the level of systemic risk is mitigated through the provision of liquidity assistance the interbank liability network evolves stochastically over time and assets of defaulted banks are sold to qualified banks within the network through a first price sealed bid auction we find that policies targeting systemically important banks are more effective in core periphery network structures whereas those maximizing the total liquidity in the system are preferred in random network configurations we assess sensitivity of systemic risk to variations in interbank liabilities as well as to their correlation structure

monetary policy and market interest rates this thesis contains four chapters each of which examines different aspects of the uncertainty facing monetary policymakers monetary policy and market interest rates investigates how interest rates set on financial markets respond to policy actions taken by the monetary authorities the reaction of market rates is shown to depend crucially on market participants interpretation of the factors underlying the policy move these theoretical predictions find support in an empirical analysis of the u s financial markets predicting monetary policy using federal funds futures prices examines how prices of federal funds futures contracts can be used to predict policy moves by the federal reserve although the futures prices exhibit systematic variation across trading days and calendar months they are shown to be fairly successful in predicting the federal funds rate target that will prevailafter the next meeting of the federal open market committee from 1994 to 1998 monetary policy with uncertain parameters examines the effects of parameter uncertainty on the optimal monetary policy strategy under certain parameter configurations increasing uncertainty is shown to lead to more aggressive policy in contrast to the accepted wisdom should central banks be more aggressive examines why a certain class of monetary policy models leads to more aggressive policy prescriptions than what is observed in reality these counterfactual results are shown to be due to model restrictions rather than central banks being too cautious in their policy behavior an unrestricted model taking the dynamics of the economy and multiplicative parameter uncertainty into account leads to optimal policy prescriptions which are very close to observed federal reserve behavior

networks and systemic risk in the financial system the complex web of exposures and interlinkages across the financial system highlights the relevance of network analysis in understanding systemic risk and guiding the design of financial regulation this paper discusses how network models and those based on epidemiological approaches in particular offer a compelling description of the structure of real world financial systems and shed light on different contagion mechanisms seen during the global financial crisis we also review how these insights may inform macroprudential risk assessment and policy in the areas of stress testing the financial system and the regulation of systemically important institutions the role of non bank financial intermediation and social networks in shaping financial system risk is also briefly considered

systemic risk in the netting system abstract in interbank clearing networks a bank experiencing sudden liquidity or solvency problems may prevent settlement of the claims of its direct creditors which may in turn jeopardize settlement of other institutions the paper presents an empirical assessment of the potential size of this domino effect in the italian netting system a participant s settlement failure is simulated and the impact on the rest of the system measured on average only about 4 percent of participants were large enough to trigger systemic crises less than 1 percent defaulted due to systemic reasons the average monetary loss was less than 3 percent of the daily flow of funds through the clearing system similar simulations by other authors for the u s system yielded a much larger impact of systemic risk we argue that the difference is mainly due to the much smaller volume of funds flowing through the italian system and to structural differences

systemic influences on optimal equity credit investment we introduce an equity credit portfolio framework taking into account the structural interaction of market and credit risk along with their systemic dependencies we derive an explicit expression for the optimal investment strategy in stocks and credit default swaps cdss we exploit its representation structure and analyze the mechanisms driving the optimal investment decisions the transmission of market risk premia is the key mechanism through which systemic influences affect the optimal investment strategy we develop a novel calibration procedure and find that systemic dependencies are statistically significant when the model is fitted to historical time series of equity and cds data an empirical analysis with data of companies in the dow jones industrial average 30 reveals the critical role of systemic risk in portfolio monitoring this paper was accepted by noah gans stochastic models and simulation

measuring network systemic risk contributions a leave one out approach abstract the aim of this paper is to propose a new network measure of systemic risk contributions that combines the pair wise granger causality approach with the leave one out concept this measure is based on a conditional granger causality test and consists of measuring how far the proportion of statistically significant connections in the system breaks down when a given financial institution is excluded we analyse the performance of our measure of systemic risk by considering a sample of the largest banks worldwide over the 2003 2018 period we obtain three important results first we show that our measure is able to identify a large number of banks classified as global systemically important banks g sibs by the financial stability board fsb second we find that our measure is a robust and statistically significant early warning indicator of downside returns during the last financial crisis finally we investigate the potential determinants of our measure of systemic risk and find similar results to the existing literature in particular our empirical results suggest that the size and the business model of banks are significant drivers of systemic risk

what is the minimal systemic risk in financial exposure networks abstract we quantify how much systemic risk can be eliminated in financial contract networks by rearranging their network topology by using mixed integer linear programming financial linkages are optimally organized whereas the overall economic conditions of banks such as capital buffers total interbank assets and liabilities and average risk weighted exposure remain unchanged we apply the new optimization procedure to 10 snapshots of the austrian interbank market where we focus on the largest 70 banks covering 71 of the market volume the optimization reduces systemic risk measured in debtrank by about 70 showing the huge potential that changing the network structure has on the mitigation of financial contagion existing capital levels would need to be scaled up by a factor of 3 3 to obtain similar levels of debtrank these findings underline the importance of macro prudential rules that focus on the structure of financial networks the new optimization procedure allows us to benchmark actual networks to networks with minimal systemic risk we find that simple topological measures like link density degree assortativity or clustering coefficient fail to explain the large differences in systemic risk between actual and optimal networks we find that if the most systemically relevant banks are tightly connected overall systemic risk is higher than if they are unconnected

claimholder incentive conflicts in reorganization the role of bankruptcy law when a firm is financial distress in most cases a set of mutually advantageous reorganization plans exist this article shows that the bankruptcy code by providing rules governing the negotiation process yields a unique solution to the reorganization process in addition the structure imposed by the code mitigates the holdout problem created by the individual claimant s divergent incentives article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

financial networks and contagion we study cascades of failures in a network of interdependent financial organizations how discontinuous changes in asset values e g defaults and shutdowns trigger further failures and how this depends on network structure integration greater dependence on counterparties and diversification more counterparties per organization have different nonmonotonic effects on the extent of cascades diversification connects the network initially permitting cascades to travel but as it increases further organizations are better insured against one another s failures integration also faces trade offs increased dependence on other organizations versus less sensitivity to own investments finally we illustrate the model with data on european debt cross holdings jel d85 f15 f34 f36 f65 g15 g32 g33 g38 globalization brings with it increased financial interdependencies among many kinds of organizations governments central banks investment banks firms etc that hold each other s shares debts and other obligations such interdependencies can lead to cascading defaults and failures which are often avoided through massive bailouts of institutions deemed too big to fail recent examples include the us government s interventions in aig fannie mae freddie mac and general motors and the european commission s interventions in greece and spain although such bailouts circumvent the widespread failures that were more prevalent in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries they emphasize the need to study the risks created by a network of interdependencies understanding these risks is crucial to designing incentives and regulatory responses which defuse cascades before they are imminent in this paper we develop a general model that produces new insights regarding financial contagions and cascades of failures among organizations linked through a network of financial interdependencies organizations values depend on each other e g through cross holdings of shares debt or other liabilities if an

capital regulation under price impacts and dynamic financial contagion abstract we construct a continuous time model for price mediated contagion precipitated by a common exogenous stress to the banking book of all firms in the financial system in this setting firms are constrained so as to satisfy a risk weight based capital ratio requirement we use this model to find analytical bounds on the risk weights for assets as a function of the market liquidity under these appropriate risk weights we find existence and uniqueness for the joint system of firm behavior and the asset prices we further consider an analytical bound on the firm liquidations which allows us to construct exact formulas for stress testing the financial system with deterministic or random stresses numerical case studies are provided to demonstrate various implications of this model and analytical bounds

systemic risk in financial systems we consider default by firms that are part of a single clearing mechanism the obligations of all firms within the system are determined simultaneously in a fashion consistent with the priority of debt claims and the limited liability of equity we first show via a fixed point argument that there always exists a clearing payment vector that clears the obligations of the members of the clearing system under mild regularity conditions this clearing vector is unique next we develop an algorithm that both clears the financial system in a computationally efficient fashion and provides information on the systemic risk faced by the individual system firms finally we produce qualitative comparative statics for financial systems these comparative statics imply that in contrast to single firm results even unsystematic nondissipative shocks to the system will lower the total value of the system and may lower the value of the equity of some of the individual system firms

commodity prices money surprises and fed credibilit strict monetarist theory in an extreme form holds that excessive money growth or the expectation of future money growth shows up immediately in the rapid inflation of goods prices however it is widely argued that for most goods prices are in fact sticky in the short run and reflect money growth only in the long run if one seeks a sensitive market measure of the perceived looseiless or tightness of monetary policy one must look elsewhere than at the general price level interest rates being determined in quickly adjusting financial markets are free to respond immediately to expectations regarding monetary policy in 1981 and 1982 every friday at 4 10 p m eastern standard time the federal reserve board would announce the money stock for the week ending nine days previously if the announced money stock was different from what the market had been expecting interest rates generally jumped in the same direction clearly they were responding to revisions of the expected future path of the money stock but nominal interest rates are an ambiguous indicator of expectations on the one hand an announced increase in the money stock may be received by the market as indicating a higher

incentivizing resilience in financial networks when banks extend loans to each other they generate a negative externality in the form of systemic risk they create a network of interbank exposures by which they expose other banks to potential insolvency cascades in this paper we show how a regulator can use information about the financial network to devise a transaction specific tax based on a network centrality measure that captures systemic importance since different transactions have different impact on creating systemic risk they are taxed differently we call this tax a systemic risk tax srt we use an equilibrium concept inspired by the matching markets literature to show analytically that this srt induces a unique equilibrium matching of lenders and borrowers that is systemic risk efficient i e it minimizes systemic risk given a certain transaction volume on the other hand we show that without this srt multiple equilibrium matchings exist which are generally inefficient this allows the regulator to effectively stimulate a rewiring of the equilibrium interbank network so as to make it more resilient to insolvency cascades without sacrificing transaction volume moreover we show that a standard financial transaction tax e g a tobin like tax has no impact on reshaping the equilibrium financial network because it taxes all transactions indiscriminately a tobin like tax is indeed shown to have a limited effect on reducing systemic risk while it decreases transaction volume

interbank lending and systemic risk systemic risk refers to the propagation of a bank s economic distress to other economic agents linked to that bank through financial transactions banking authorities often prevent systemic risk through an implicit insurance of interbank claims or by reducing interbank transactions and centralizing banks liquidity management this paper investigates whether the flexability afforded by decentralized bank interactions can be preserved while protecting the central banks from the necessity of conducting undesired rescue operations it develops a model in which decentralized interbank leading is motivated by peer monitoring in this context the paper derives the optimal prudential rules and in particular looks at the impact of interbank monitoring on the solvency and liquidity ratios of borrowing and lending banks last it provides conditions which a too big to fail policy is or is not justified and studies the possibility of propagation of a bank s liquidity shock throughout the financial system copyright 1996 by ohio state university press

an empirical analysis of acting white abstract using a newly available data set which allows one to construct a novel measure of a student s social status we demonstrate that there are potentially important racial differences in the relationship between social status and academic achievement the effect is concentrated among students with a grade point average gpa of 3 5 or higher and more pronounced in schools with more interracial contact earlier studies showing a positive relationship between popularity and academic achievement for blacks are sensitive to the inclusion of more continuous achievement measures we argue that the data are most consistent with a model of acting white in which investments in education are taken as a signal of one s opportunity costs of peer group loyalty though imprecise estimates make definitive conclusions difficult

systemic risk in the angolan interbank payment system a network approach in this work we analyse the topology of the network of interbank payment flows settled via the real time gross settlement system rtgs of the angolan payment system aps during the fourth quarte

failure and rescue in an interbank network this paper is concerned with systemic risk in an interbank market modelled as a directed graph of interbank obligations this builds on the modelling paradigm of eisenberg and noe eisenberg l noe th 2001 systemic risk in financial systems management sci 472 236 249 by introducing costs of default if loans have to be called in by a failing bank this immediately introduces novel and realistic effects we find that in general many different clearing vectors can arise among which there is a greatest clearing vector arrived at by letting banks fail in succession until only solvent banks remain such a collapse should be prevented if at all possible we then study situations in which consortia of banks may have the means and incentives to rescue failing banks this again departs from the conclusions of the earlier work of eisenberg and noe where in the absence of default losses there would be no incentive for solvent banks to rescue failing banks we conclude with some remarks about how a rescue consortium might be constructed this paper was accepted by wei xiong finance

the formation of a core periphery structure in heterogeneous financial networks recent empirical evidence suggests that nancial networks exhibit a core periphery network structure this paper aims at giving an economic explanation for the emergence of such a structure using network formation theory focusing on intermediation benets we nd that a core periphery network cannot be unilaterally stable when agents are homogeneous the best response dynamics converge to a unique unilaterally stable outcome ranging from an empty to denser networks as the costs of linking decrease a core periphery network structure can form endogenously however if we allow for heterogeneity among agents in size we show that our model can reproduce the observed core periphery structure in the dutch interbank market for reasonable parameter values

domestic and external sectoral portfolios network structure and balance sheet contagion abstract this paper uses a unique comprehensive database on french security assets and liabilities to study the dynamics of domestic and external sectoral portfolios their network structure and their role in the propagation of shocks we first show how the sharp deterioration of the net external portfolio position of france between 2008 and 2014 was driven by sectoral patterns such as the banking sector retrenchment and the increase in foreign liabilities of the public and corporate sectors but was mitigated by the expansion of domestic and foreign asset portfolios of insurance companies we also provide a network representation of the links between domestic sectors and the rest of the world and document their evolution between 2008 and 2014 second we put forward and estimate a model of balance sheet contagion through inter sectoral security linkages the estimation of the model through gmm shows that the financial sectors of the economy banking mutual fund and insurance sector are affected by balance sheet contagion