nonparametric and semiparametric estimation an analysis of multiproduct returns to scale the nonparametric and semiparametric regression models based on kernel density estimation are reviewed and they are applied to the analysis of returns to scale in dairy farms using a multioutput cost function semiparametric tests of constant returns to scale and homogeneity of production are developed and their implementation show that both of these hypotheses are rejected kernel estimation of the local degree of multiproduct returns to scale confirms that the sample s dairy farms are characterized by a considerable degree of scale economies

forest dependence and income distribution in a subsistence economy evidence from india abstract we examine an area of northern india where forestry acts to ameliorate the incidence of poverty and destitution though it does not otherwise contribute significantly to the reduction of income inequality the poor would be doubly disadvantaged without common property access to forest products conservation measures entailing curtailment in the right to common access pose a dilemma this issue is explored here

poverty and environmental degradation in the nicaraguan hillsides abstract this article questions the assumption of poverty as a major cause of environmental degradation examining five environmentally harmful natural resource management practices in the nicaraguan hillsides it shows that the immediate agents of environmental degradation are the nonpoor farmers not the poorest it argues that to analyze the causal links between poverty and environment a distinction between poverty as a state of deprivation and poverty as a relational phenomenon is necessary finally the article warns that the often strategic reference to poverty as the major cause of environmental degradation made by nonpoor and poor farmers may lead to negative environmental impacts

election goals and the allocation of campaign resources this paper compares the equilibrium behavior and outcomes in a model of two party competition for legislative seats under two different assumptions about the parties goals 1 parties maximize the expected number of seats won and 2 parties maximize the probability of winning a majority of the seats the two goals may lead to qualitatively different behavior and studying the differences yields insights into the relationship between the goals and the role of assymetries between the parties

ignoring the electoral college why public choice economists understate the probability of decisive voters when considering the probability of voters being decisive in presidential elections public choice economists typically proceed as if the probability can reasonably be approximated by assuming that the winner is determined by simple majority vote it is well known the electoral college can cause presidential candidates to lose elections despite winning the popular vote an election inversion but the electoral college s ability to increase the probability of some voters being decisive effectively has been ignored despite such increases having occurred in 10 of the last 49 presidential elections by examining the influence of the electoral college in most of the presidential elections from 1824 to 2016 i explain and give examples of how the probabilities of some voters being decisive were elevated above what they would have been under majority rule with the increase being truly astounding in several cases the examples do not weaken the importance of expressive voting but our understanding of such voting is improved by considering the probability effects of the electoral college on voter decisiveness

on nonparametric supply response analysis in this paper we explore the usefulness of nonparametric methods in the investigation of production behavior and the estimation of price elasticities of output supply and input demand functions the approach can handle the situation where some data points are not consistent with production theory the method is illustrated by estimating supply demand elasticities of outputs and inputs in u s agriculture

a soil quality index and its relationship to efficiency and productivity growth measures two decompositions this article reconciles two notions of soil quality indexes with the economic concepts of technical efficiency and productivity growth an example uses data from the u s department of agriculture s experimental fields in maryland and data envelopment analysis techniques to estimate a soil quality index consistent with the notion of technical efficiency common regression techniques shed additional light on the role of individual soil quality properties in a very restricted linear approximation of the estimated soil quality index

forecasting the presidential vote in the states this research examines an equation developed to forecast the two party presidential vote in the states the equation is composed of 16 independent variables measured at the national regional and state levels it includes national trial heat polls from early in the campaign the growth in the national economy presidential incumbency the state s voting record in the previous two presidential elections home state and regional advantages for the candidates the partisan division of the state legislature following the last midterm election an index of state ideology based on the roll call voting of its house delegation and five regional trend variables to take into account partisan shifts over time the equation is estimated over 531 state elections from 1948 to 1988 the overall fit of the equation is quite good it accounts for nearly 85 of the variance leaves a standard error of less than four percentage points and has an average error of just three percentage points of the vote this level of accuracy is comparable to that of steven rosenstone s equation in his forecasting presidential elections 1983 moreover the equation is quite parsimonious and yields forecasts by early september of the election year

what is the probability your vote will make a difference i introduction what is the probability that one vote will make a difference this is of interest in the utility theory of voting and also for campaign strategists who must assess the costs and benefits of attempting to persuade or turn out voters in particular states 1 in a presidential election the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win times the probability the vote in your state is tied conditional on your state being necessary broadly speaking there are three ways of estimating the probability of a decisive vote the first approach and the oldest in the literature 2 is to set up a theoretical model for the joint distribution of the popular vote margin in the separate jurisdictions in this case the 50 states plus the district of columbia and then analytically compute the probability of each state being nationally decisive and locally tied such models offer important insights but are not directly useful for presidential elections given that our interest is in the particularities of individual states in 2008 rather than on general properties of an electoral system the second approach is purely empirical an estimate of the form y n where n is the number of elections in some large historical sample and y is the number that were tied elections are very rarely tied so one can instead use an estimate such as y 2 000 n where y is now the number of elections decided by less than 1 000 votes such an empirical analysis can be embedded into a regression of vote differential on election level predictors mulligan and hunter 2003 use such a model for estimating the average probability of a decisive vote in legislative elections and gelman katz and bafumi 2004 use the distribution of aggregate vote margins to study the dependence of the probability of a tie on the number of voters 3 unfortunately the complex structure and the small number of presidential elections rule out a purely empirical approach in this case the third method which we use here is to set up a forecasting model for the current election the uncertainties for the 50 statewide elections in such a model should be correlated or equivalently the model should have a national error term and possibly regional error terms in addition to any independent state errors given a forecast that is a joint probability distribution one can calculate the probability of decisive vote using simulation or in a setting such as a national election in which the probability of a tied election is tiny one can use a mix of simulation and analytic calculations as was done by gelman king and boscardin 1998 4 ii method we use a state by state election forecast computed on october 24 2008 based on the latest opinion polls silver 2008 earlier in the campaign polls are not particularly informative and it is better to use regression based forecasts at least to account for possible national swings see lock and gelman 2008 and for further discussion wlezien and erikson 2004 and the references therein by late october however polls are close to the actual election outcome and so it is reasonable to construct a forecast distribution using poll aggregation 5 the result of our forecasts is a 10 000 x 51 matrix representing 10 000 computer simulations of the election with each simulation including the vote margin for obama e g a margin of 0 208 in alabama corresponds to obama and mccain receiving 60 4 and 39 6 respectively of the two party vote in the state we convert this percentage to a numerical vote margin by multiplying by the voter turnout in the state which we estimate by taking the two party turnout from 2004 and adding 4 corresponding to population increase and another 4 to account for an anticipated increase in turnout this year 6 as discussed earlier the simulations for the states are correlated the joint probability distribution of the 51 election outcomes includes uncertainty about the national swing as well as state by state fluctuations

the effects of farm commodity and retail food policies on obesity and economic welfare in the united states many commentators claim that farm subsidies have contributed significantly to the obesity epidemic by making fattening foods relatively cheap and abundant and symmetrically that taxing unhealthy commodities or subsidizing healthy commodities would contribute to reducing obesity rates in this article we use an equilibrium displacement model to estimate and compare the economic welfare effects from a range of hypothetical farm commodity and retail food policies as alternative mechanisms for encouraging consumption of healthy food or discouraging consumption of unhealthy food or both we find that compared with retail taxes on fat sugar or all food or subsidies on fruits and vegetables at the farm or retail levels a tax on calories would be the most efficient obesity policy a tax on calories would have the lowest deadweight loss per pound of fat reduction in average adult weight and would yield a net social gain once the impact on public health care expenditures is considered

the provision of public goods under alternative electoral incentives politicians who care about the spoils of office may underprovide a public good because its benefits cannot be targeted to voters as easily as pork barrel spending we compare a winner take all system where all the spoils go to the winner to a proportional system where the spoils of office are split among candidates proportionally to their share of the vote in a winner take all system the public good is provided less often than in a proportional system when the public good is particularly desirable we then consider the electoral college system and show that it is particularly subject to this inefficiency

modeling supply response in a multiproduct framework the paper models multiproduct supply response in agriculture and tests key assumptions traditionally maintained in supply response studies the technology is approximated by a restricted profit function the properties of the restricted profit function are imposed during estimation the hypothesis that maintains the existence of output price and quantity indexes that satisfy the adding up property is rejected the existence of individual production functions for each output is also rejected unless joint production is permitted the estimates of responsiveness of a particular commodity to changes in own price or prices of competing outputs are likely to be considerably understated

campaign allocations under probabilistic voting we develop a probabilistic voting model where candidates compete by advertising in different media markets ads are viewed by everyone within a market and cannot be targeted to subgroups such as one candidate s partisans candidates estimate the distribution of voter preference intensities in a market and campaign ads then shift this distribution individuals with any intensity vote with some probability for each candidate we derive comparative static implications of changes in a variety of factors on the advertising decisions of each candidate using campaign advertising data from 2002 we find these results to be consistent with actual campaign allocation behavior

balanced budget redistribution as the outcome of political competition this paper models balanced budget redistribution between socio economic groups as the outcome of electoral competition between two political parties equilibrium is unique in the present model and a sufficient condition for existence is given requiring that there be enough stochastic heterogeneity with respect to party preferences in the electorate the validity of hotelling s principle of minimum differentiation and of director s law are examined under alternative hypotheses concerning administrative costs of redistributions and voter s possibilities both of abstaining from voting and of becoming campaign activists for one of the parties the policy strategy of expected plurality maximization is contrasted with the strategy of maximizing the probability of gaining a plurality incomes are fixed and known so lump sum taxation is feasible however constraints on tax transfer differentiation between individuals are permitted in the analysis

determining market power exertion between buyers and sellers are nonparametrics a viable alternative a review of recent literature reveals the development of several deterministic non parametric dnp tests of market power the performance of selected dnp market power tests is ascertained to determine their usefulness as an alternative to data hungry parametric market power tests this assessment is carried out through implementation of monte carlo experiments using data sets from ten known market structures only two of the six dnp tests appear able to satisfactorily identify market power

supply demand and technology in a multiproduct industry texas field crops the purpose of this paper is to examine the structure of agricultural production for six texas field crops cotton grain sorghum wheat corn rice and hay which account for nearly 95 of recent field crop value specific objectives are to a test the structure of technology to determine i if output and input utilization choices for individual products are independent of production decisions about other outputs and ii if products and or inputs can be consistently aggregated b estimate a coherent set of interrelated supply functions for the six commodities and input demand functions for fertilizer and hired labor because the empirical focus of this paper is specific to one state the results will be of limited value for interpreting specific production relationships elsewhere however the problem is of common interest in production agriculture and the techniques used demonstrate an important application of dual modeling

inter regional redistribution through infrastructure investment tactical or programmatic in this paper we study the political economy of the inter regional allocation of investment in infrastructure in an effort to disentangle tactical and programmatic motives where tactical politics refers to the discretionary allocation of investment to districts with more political clout and programmatic politics refers to the allocation of investment according to certain objective criteria e g income level we use a panel of data from the spanish electoral districts for the period 1964 2004 to estimate an equation in which investment depends both on economic and political variables the results show that tactical politics do matter since the districts receiving the most funds are those in which i the incumbent s vote margin is low ii few votes are needed to win an additional seat in the legislature iii the central and regional governments are controlled by the same party and iv regional parties play a pivotal role in the legislature however the results also show that programmatic politics matter since inter regional redistribution is shown to increase i with the arrival of democracy and european union funds ii under leftist governments and iii the weaker the correlation is between political clout and regional income

production organization and efficiency during transition an empirical analysis of east german agriculture enterprise restructuring is expected to improve efficiency in transition economies with data from former east germany we compare the efficiency of family farms and partnerships with large scale successor organizations of the collective and state farms lsos using parametric and nonparametric techniques we show that lsos display lower technical efficiency than do family farms and partnerships but that this difference is small and declining during transition mainly as a result of structural changes in agriculture family farms are not as scale efficient as partnerships and lsos and partnerships are superior to all other organizational forms

the potential benefits of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in uruguay lessons for small developing countries abstract in many developing countries the potential benefits from adopting a transgenic variety developed by a multinational corporation are limited by the crop s small production base this paper presents an ex ante evaluation of the economic impact of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in a small developing country uruguay to fully account for the multinational s market power the firm s seed markup is assumed to affect the adoption rate for the variety stochastic simulation techniques are employed to understand how potential benefits may vary with changes in technology yield costs and adoption parameters the results indicate a 1 82 million mean net present value for producers from the development and utilization of transgenic rice in uruguay and 0 55 million for the multinational these relatively small multinational firm benefits suggest that a firm will not undertake significant efforts to develop transgenic varieties adapted to local conditions without either strategic partnerships with local institutions or access to wider regional markets

how the electoral college influences campaigns and policy the probability of being florida this paper analyzes how us presidential candidates should allocate resources across states to maximize the probability of winning the election by developing and estimating a probabilistic voting model of political competition under the electoral college system actual campaigns act in close agreement with the model there is a 0 9 correlation between equilibrium and actual presidential campaign visits across states both in 2000 and 2004 the paper shows how presidential candidate attention is affected by the states number of electoral votes forecasted state election outcomes and forecast uncertainty it also analyzes the effects of a direct national popular vote for president

poverty and environmental degradation a review and analysis of the nexus abstract there is much controversy surrounding the poverty environmental degradation nexus the predominant school of thought argues that poverty is a major cause of environmental degradation and if policy makers want to address environmental issues then they must first address the poverty problem another school of thought argues that a direct link between poverty and environmental degradation is too simplistic and the nexus is governed by a complex web of factors in this paper a formal structure for analyzing the complex web of factors is formulated and used to review the existing literature on the links between poverty and the degradation of four natural resource sectors the analysis highlights the important role institutional and market failure in encouraging agents from various income groups to exhibit unsustainable activities which in turn forces some of the agents to fall into poverty another important factor is the role of conflicts between different agents income groups in the povertyenvironmental degradation nexus the analysis also highlights the presence of feedback loops between environmental degradation and poverty

a swing state theory of trade protection in the electoral college this paper analyzes trade policy determination in the electoral college in the presence of swing voters it determines the circumstances under which incumbent politicians have an incentive to build a reputation for protectionism thus swaying voting decisions and improving their re election probability strategic trade protection is shown to be more likely when protectionist swing voters have a lead over free trade supporters in states with relatively strong electoral competition and in states representing a larger proportion of electoral college votes an empirical test using a measure of industrial concentration in swing and decisive u s states lends support to the theoretical findings

nonparametric analysis of technical and allocative efficiencies in production in this paper we extend varian s 1984 nonparametric production analysis to situations when the set of observed output input and price data is not consistent with profit maximization for at least one firm in such cases varian s results imply that no production possibility set containing all observations can rationalize the observed data we identify each firm whose performance given the prices faced by it may be found consistent with profit maximization relative to some production possibility set containing all observed output input vectors we show that the set 4 of all such firms can itself be weaklv rationalized in the sense that there exists a closed convex and monotone production possibility set that contains all the observations and relative to which the performance of all the firms in the set 8o is consistent with profit maximization given their respective prices by definition firms not included in this largest set d of efficient observations unambiguously deviate from profit maximizing behavior for any production possibility set containing all observations we follow farrell 1957 and analyze these deviations into technical and allocative efficiency measures considering as admissible all closed convex and monotone production possibility sets relative to which the performance of each firm in the set g remains consistent with profit maximization we then describe nonparametric methods for determining the tightest upper and lower bounds on the technical allocative and aggregate efficiency measures evaluated relative to all such admissible production possibility sets it is seen that the tightest upper bound on the technical efficiency measure is the same as the value computed by the nonparametric efficiency evaluation technique known as data envelopment analysis thus establishing a link between this literature in management science operations research and the nonparametric production analysis in economics

poverty policies and deforestation the case of mexico this study examines the determinants and policy implications of deforestation in mexico and includes a brief review of the relevant empirical literature and a description of the theoretical model land use patterns and socioeconomic and physiogeographic factors are determinants data were obtained from digital maps of land use and soils and the 1990 population and 1991 agricultural censuses a simple 2 period equation formalizes the relationship between deforestation and poverty government policies and local land tenure in period 1 representative producers in municipalities have 4 options in allocating labor time wage generation agricultural production deforestation on land without clear property rights and investment in technology during period 2 the options are to farm on available land and deforested areas or work in the wage sector findings reveal that 1 communal land tenure ownership by the ejido did not increase deforestation 2 pricing that favors maize production which is very land intensive increased deforestation and technical assistance reduced deforestation and 3 poverty was related to higher rates of deforestation prices were the most important immediate factor in unsustainable resource use but other factors had an impact the government policy mix did not support sustainable development reduced subsidies would benefit the environment the government should provide safety nets to increase the level of rural investment and reduce poverty and should improve land productivity with technical inputs trade liberalization and elimination of subsidies should be sensitive to the poors need for real wages

poverty income distribution and policy making this paper deals with the key distributional issues arising from the regulation of the environment and the management of natural resources the paper is divided into a section dealing with poverty and a section dealing with broader income distribution effects although there is much discussion of the linkages of poverty to environmental degradation empirical studies establishing these linkages are few the relationship is critically dependent on the institutional structures in the countries concerned and how they respond to changing environmental pressures on the broader distributional impacts the papers focusses on the analysis of ganiers and losers from environmental regulations the analysis is complex because the direct incidence is not the same as the final incidence much of the work has looked only at the former in addition the political economy of regulation needs to pay greater attention to impacts on key and vulnerable groups more so than can be done by looking at broad income bands

assessing poverty deforestation links evidence from swat pakistan abstract this paper contributes to the debate on the links between poverty and forestry degradation the view that due to poverty and the meeting of subsistence needs the poor use natural resources more intensively and hence cause them to degrade using the case of the forest rich swat district pakistan the paper addresses the issue empirically historically and institutionally we do not find empirical support for the poverty environment nexus in that the poor and other income groups are equally resource dependent and also show that resource degradation is not associated with poverty our historical and institutional analyses provide alternative explanations for resource degradation selective and rotating ownership patterns starting with the 17th century provided limited incentive for resource conservation it also created tension between de jure and de facto owners that has persisted and is one source of forest degradation ill defined resource rights have also exacerbated the impacts of several other factors contributing to forest degradation which is compounded by poor management corruption and perverse incentives

property rights regimes and natural resources a conceptual analysis the term common property resource is an example of a term repeatedly used to refer to property owned by a government or by no one it is also used for property owned by a community of resource users such usage leads to confusion in scientific study and policy analysis in this paper we develop a conceptual schema for arraying property rights regimes that distinguishes among diverse bundles of rights ranging from authorized user to claimant to proprietor and to owner we apply this conceptual schema to analyze findings from a variety of empirical settings including the maine lobster industry

poverty and environment in latin america concepts evidence and policy implications abstract who is responsible for the ongoing degradation of natural resources such as agricultural soils rangeland and forests evidence from across latin america suggests that the nonpoor and the poor are both at fault while the poor lack the means to invest in protecting natural resources both the nonpoor and the poor often lack the incentives for good resource stewardship policies for agricultural intensification and livelihood diversification can alleviate poverty and its capacity constraint but incentive policies for good stewardship are critically needed such policies should be targeted to specific environmental problems and tailored to the motivations of rural decision makers

modeling inter sectoral growth linkages an application to u s agriculture abstract general equilibrium and open economy trade theory are used along with time series data on the u s agricultural sector to provide insights into the structure of agricultural supply factor returns and linkages to the rest of the economy output expansion and factor returns are found to vary depending on relative factor intensities which we refer to as rybczynski and stolper samuelson like effects the effect of the rest of the economy particularly the increase in price of services is found to have relatively large negative impacts on agriculture the short run effects of prices and factor endowments on growth in agricultural supply and factor returns are dominated by the long run effects of technological change

a nonparametric analysis of agricultural technology u s agricultural technology and technical change are analyzed nonparametrically under cost minimization and profit maximization based on annual data for 1948 83 various separability hypotheses concerning the aggregate production function for u s agriculture are investigated the proposed nonparametric approach also provides some insights into the nature of technical change

a downward spiral research evidence on the relationship between poverty and natural resource degradation abstract many observers have conceptualised the link between rural poverty and environment as a downward spiral with population growth and economic marginalisation leading to environmental degradation recent micro scale empirical research challenges this model showing striking heterogeneity in environmental management by the rural poor their success in adapting to environmental change and the efficacy of policies in influencing outcomes local endowments conditions affecting the adoption of resource conserving technologies and local institutions supportive of the poor are key factors that condition poverty environment interactions and outcomes in relation to agriculture the main strategies to jointly address poverty and environmental improvement are to increase poor people s access to natural resources enhance the productivity of poor people s natural resource assets and involve local people in resolving public natural resource management concerns research is needed to support these strategies particularly to explore poverty environment agriculture interactions develop technologies for poor farmers and partner with local communities for action research on policies and programmes

productivity growth technical progress and efficiency change in industrialized countries this paper analyzes productivity growth in 17 oecd countries over the period 1979 1988 a nonparametric programming method activity analysis is used to compute malmquist productivity indexes these are decomposed into two component measures namely technical change and efficiency change we find that u s productivity growth is slightly higher than average all of which is due to technical change japan s productivity growth is the highest in the sample with almost half due to efficiency change jel c43 d24 in this paper we apply recently developed

profit maximization returns to scale and measurement error a nonparametric analysis of agricultural production behavior was conducted for each of the contiguous forty eight states for the period 1956 82 under the joint hypothesis of profit maximization convex technology and nonregressive technical change tests were conducted in each state for profit maximization and for constant returns to scale although considerable variability was observed among states measurement errors of magnitudes common in secondary data yielded test results fully consistent with the profit maximization hypothesis in all states with complete output and input data copyright 1992 by mit press

poverty and resource dependence in rural india abstract previous studies of rural households in developing countries have tended to find that the dependence of these households on common pool resources declines with income our study of households in jhabua india finds a more complex relationship using the share of resource income in total long run or permanent income as our dependence measure which we argue is more appropriate than the short run income based measure commonly used in the literature we find that for households that collect any resources at all dependence exhibits a u shaped relationship with income that is the poorest and richest households depend more on resources than households with intermediate incomes the poorest and richest households are also found to be least likely to collect however indicating that resource use at the income extremes is bimodal either zero or above average moreover the observed trends for resources as a whole are not mirrored in those for individual resources dependence on fuelwood and dung declines with income for example while dependence on fodder and construction wood increases these findings suggest that common pool resources are a productive source of income not just for the poor but also for the rich and that improvements in the stocks of these resources can potentially form the basis of poverty reduction efforts in these economies

the swing voter s curse the authors analyze two candidate elections in which some voters are uncertain about the realization of a state variable that affects the utility of all voters they demonstrate the existence of a swing voter s curse less informed indifferent voters strictly prefer to abstain rather than vote for either candidate even when voting is costless the swing voter s curse leads to the equilibrium result that a substantial fraction of the electorate will abstain even though all abstainers strictly prefer voting for one candidate over voting for another copyright 1996 by american economic association

empirical regularities in the poverty environment relationship of rural households evidence from zimbabwe abstract analysis of rural households and environmental resources is beset by inadequate data especially in africa using purpose collected panel data from zimbabwe we demonstrate seven empirical regularities in the rural poverty environment relationship most important environmental resources make a significant contribution to average rural incomes poorer households also depend heavily on these resources which contribute c 40 to their incomes richer households however use greater quantities of environmental resources in total finally considerable differentiation exists in the economic characteristics of environmental goods these results demonstrate the considerable economic significance of environmental resources to rural households surveys which ignore them miscalculate rural incomes and welfare