what s driving gasoline prices if current market conditions prevail gasoline prices are set to rise over the next few months and then fall over the next three years according to this issue of the economic letter

the persistence of inflation versus that of real marginal cost in the new keynesian model this note provides an example where the new keynesian phillips curve leads inflation to be substantially more persistent than the output gap

inflation dynamics and the output inflation trade off international panel data evidence we explore the impact of inflation and its variability on the output inflation trade off using a unified single step approach in a panel data context a limitation of earlier empirical approaches is that they focus on either cross country or country by country time series analyses this paper employs a dynamic heterogeneous panel data specification and uses an all encompassing estimation framework that accounts for parameter heterogeneity cross sectional dependence dynamics and non stationarity our sample covers 60 countries from 1970 to 2010 while inflation variability reduces the trade off for specific periods and country groups an unambiguous and more pronounced negative relation emerges between the inflation rate and the responsiveness of real output to nominal shocks the findings are in line with the new keynesian view of a negative association between the rate of inflation and the output inflation trade off as well as with the observed flattening of the phillips curve over the past decades

an analysis of bilateral intra industry trade in the food processing sector this paper analyses determinants of intra industry trade in food processing for a 30 country sample over the period 1964 85 previous studies have tested the hypothesis that imperfect competition is a major determinant of intra industry trade iit in the durable goods manufacturing sectors this study is distinguised from the earlier studies of iit by the examination of the processed food sector sic 20 the use of a panel data set for 22 years and 30 countries available at the four digit sic level the use of purchasing power parity measures of gdp and the use of a weighted tobit model with fixed effects to account for the censored cross section time series nature of the date the results indicate that iti in food processing is a positive function of a country s gdp per capita and equality if gdp per capita between countries in addition it is also found that such trade is strongly influenced by distance between trading partners membership in customs unions and free trade blocs and also exchange r

intra industry trade in agrofood sectors the case of the eec meat market examination of intra industry trade iit and of its determinants has so far been confined to industrial commodity markets taking the case of red meat the possibility of trade overlap in a typical agroffod commodity is observed further based on previous theoretical analyses and empirical indications it tests formally a general and a restricted set of country and industry or demand and supply hypotheses which being particular to the eec meat market may account for cross country variations in iit in 1988 results suggest that taste overlap as approached by countries cultural and economic convergence as well as the imperfectly competitive structure of the market as supported by product differentiation significantly explain iit despite some methodological shortcomings there seems to be ample scope for the application of similar models in other agrofood sectors in what remains a relatively under researched area

sectoral inflation and the phillips curve what has changed since the great recession abstract using sectoral data at a medium level of aggregation we find that disaggregated inflation rates became less responsive to aggregate unemployment around 2009 2010 the slopes of the disaggregated phillips curves diminished in many sectors including housing and some services we also document a decrease in sectoral inflation persistence suggesting an increase in the weight of the forward looking inflation expectation component and a decrease in the weight of the backward looking component

oil prices fundamentals and expectations abstract this paper empirically investigates the relationship between oil prices traditional fundamentals and expectations informational frictions may force a wedge between oil prices and supply and or demand shocks especially during periods of elevated risk aversion and uncertainty in such a context expectations can be a key driver of oil price movements and their impact can vary over time overall we find that both traditional oil fundamentals and forward looking expectations matter for oil prices our findings show that the real price of oil responds differently to expectations shocks of business leaders consumers and aggregate markets our tvp var approach provides evidence that business leaders expectations play an important role in terms of oil price fluctuations and the impact is stronger in periods of elevated global oil demand in terms of traditional oil market fundamentals we find that oil prices have been significantly affected by the recent us shale oil boom moreover global oil demand had a positive impact upon oil prices especially from the mid 2000s several alternative model specifications prove the robustness of our analysis

estimating new keynesian phillips curves a full information maximum likelihood approach abstract the new keynesian phillips curve has recently become an important ingredient in monetary policy models however using limited information methods the empirical support for the new keynesian phillips curve appear to be mixed this paper argues by means of monte carlo simulations with a simple new keynesian sticky price model that single equations methods e g gmm are likely to produce imprecise and biased estimates then it is argued that estimating the model with full information maximum likelihood fiml is a useful way of obtaining better estimates finally a version of the model used in the monte carlo simulations is estimated on u s data with fiml and although the pure forward looking new keynesian phillips curve is rejected a version with both forward and backward looking components provides a reasonable approximation of u s inflation dynamics

ppp strikes back aggregation and the real exchange rate we show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the ppp puzzle we prove that the aggregate real exchange rate is persistent because its components have heterogeneous dynamics established time series and panel methods fail to control for this using eurostat data we find that when heterogeneity is taken into account the estimated persistence of real exchange rates falls dramatically its half life for instance may fall to as low as eleven months significantly below the consensus view of three to five years

sectoral and aggregate inflation dynamics in the euro area this paper synthesises the implications of recent statistical evidence regarding inflation persistence in the euro area for aggregate data the degree of inflation persistence appears to be very high for sample periods spanning multiple decades but falls dramatically once we allow for time variation in the mean level of inflation furthermore the timing of these breaks in mean generally coincides with observed shifts in the monetary policy regime finally sectoral inflation series exhibit much less persistence than aggregate inflation mainly because of the influence of transitory sector specific shocks jel e31 c22 c43

weak instrument robust tests in gmm and the new keynesian phillips curve we discuss weak instrument robust statistics in gmm for testing hypotheses on the full parameter vector or on subsets of the parameters we use these test procedures to reexamine the evidence on the new keynesian phillips curve model we find that u s postwar data are consistent with the view that inflation dynamics are predominantly forward looking but we cannot rule out the presence of considerable backward looking dynamics moreover the phillips curve has become flatter recently and this is an important factor contributing to its weak identification

inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the euro area in this paper we present an optimizing agent model for the euro area to emphasize how the existence of heterogeneity in inflation persistence across regions matters for the design of monetary policy we find supporting evidence of the existence of such a heterogeneity in inflation dynamics across euro area countries in particular based on the estimation of new keynesian phillips curves for five major countries of the euro area we find that inflation in germany has a dominant forward looking component while in the other group of countries inflation show a significant inertial backward looking behavior under this circumstance we study the welfare implications of four monetary policy rules following terms of trade shocks fully optimal optimal inflation targeting hicp targeting and output gap stabilization

modeling inflation dynamics a critical review of recent research in recent years a broad academic consensus has arisen around the use of rational expectations sticky price models to capture inflation dynamics these models are seen as providing an empirically reasonable characterization of observed inflation behavior once suitable measures of the output gap are chosen and moreover are perceived to be robust to the lucas critique in a way that earlier econometric models of inflation are not we review the principal conclusions of this literature concerning 1 the ability of these models to fit the data 2 the importance of rational forward looking expectations in price setting and 3 the appropriate measure of inflationary pressures we argue that existing rational expectations sticky price models fail to provide a useful empirical description of the inflation process especially relative to traditional econometric phillips curves of the sort commonly employed for policy analysis

international evidence on the new keynesian phillips curve using aggregate and disaggregate data we present a unique empirical analysis of the properties of the new keynesian phillips curve nkpc using an international data set of aggregate and disaggregate sectoral inflation our results from panel time series estimation clearly indicate that sectoral heterogeneity has important consequences for aggregate inflation behavior heterogeneity helps to explain the overestimation of inflation persistence and underestimation of the role of marginal costs in empirical investigations of the nkpc that use aggregate data we find that combining disaggregate information with heterogeneous consistent estimation techniques helps to reconcile to a large extent the nkpc with the data

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

sectoral phillips curves and the aggregate phillips curve sector level phillips curves are estimated in french data there is considerable heterogeneity across sectors with vastly different estimates of the backward looking component of inflation and the duration of nominal rigidities a multi sector model of inflation dynamics is calibrated on the basis of these sectoral estimates aggregate inflation simulated on the basis of heterogeneous sectors displays comparable dynamics to actual data a comparison is drawn between the policy trade offs implied by a phillips curve based on macroeconomic estimates vs one based on a model with heterogeneous sectors the difference is sizeable

identifying the new keynesian phillips curve phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy the hybrid new keynesian phillips curve nkpc describes how past inflation expected future inflation and a measure of real aggregate demand drive the current inflation rate this paper studies the potential weak identification of the nkpc under generalized method of moments and traces this syndrome to a lack of higher order dynamics in exogenous variables we employ analytic methods to understand the economics of the nkpc identification problem in the canonical three equation new keynesian model we revisit the empirical evidence for the usa the uk and canada by constructing tests and confidence intervals based on the anderson and rubin 1949 statistic which is robust to weak identification we also apply the guggenberger and smith 2008 lm test to the underlying nkpc pricing parameters both tests yield little evidence of forward looking inflation dynamics copyright 2008 john wiley sons ltd

identification weak instruments and statistical inference in econometrics we discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics we consider inference in non parametric models and weakly identified structural models weak instruments we point out that many ill defined statistical problems such as non testable hypotheses occur in these areas and are typically associated with asymptotic approximations in non parametric models such problems include testing moments and inference under heteroscedasticity or serial dependence of unknown form for weakly identified structural models difficulties are typically associated with improper pivots and we review recent developments aimed at proposing more reliable procedures including alternative proposed statistics bounds projection split sampling conditioning monte carlo tests jel classification c1 c12 c14 c15 c3 c5 identification instruments faibles et inference statistique en econometrie nous analysons les problemes d inference associes a l identification et a la testabilite en econometrie nous considerons l inference dans les modeles non parametriques et les modeles structurels faiblement identifies instruments faibles nous remarquons que beaucoup de problemes mal poses tels que des hypotheses non testables apparaissent dans ces domaines et que ceux ci sont typiquement associes a l emploi d approximations asymptotiques dans les modeles non parametriques de tels problemes incluent les tests sur les moments et l inference sous heteroscedasticite ou dependance serielle de forme non specifiee dans les modeles structurels faiblement identifies ces difficultes sont habituellement associees a l emploi de fonctions pivotales impropres et nous presentons un survol des methodes recentes ayant pour objectif d obtenir des procedures plus fiables ce qui comprend les differentes statistiques proposees l emploi de bornes la subdivision d echantillon les techniques de projection le conditionnement et les tests de monte carlo

estimating the linear quadratic inventory model maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments abstract we compare generalized method of moments gmm and maximum likelihood ml estimators of the parameters of a linear quadratic inventory model using nondurable manufacturing data and monte carlo simulations data based gmm estimates for five normalizations vary widely generally rejecting the model the ml estimate generally supports the model monte carlo experiments reveal that the gmm estimates are often biased apparently due to poor instruments statistically insignificant economically implausible and dynamically unstable the ml estimates are generally unbiased even in misspecified models statistically significant economically plausible and dynamically stable asymptotic standard errors for ml are 3 to 15 times smaller than for gmm

european inflation dynamics abstract we provide evidence on the fit of the new phillips curve npc for the euro area over the period 1970 1998 and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of european inflation dynamics with those observed in the u s we also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs as well as that of its two main components namely labor productivity and real wages some of the findings can be summarized as follows a the npc fits euro area data very well possibly better than u s data b the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial but in line with survey evidence and u s estimates c inflation dynamics in the euro area appear to have a stronger forward looking component i e less inertia than in the u s d labor market frictions as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and consequently inflation in europe

testing for short and long run asymmetric responses and structural breaks in the retail gasoline supply chain abstract this research examines the short run and long run relationship between the retail gasoline price the spot gasoline price and the price of west texas intermediate wti crude oil along the gasoline supply chain we find mixed evidence of short run asymmetry in all stages of the retail gasoline supply chain we fail to reject long run symmetry at each stage of the retail gasoline supply chain additionally we find a significant structural break in the crude oil spot gasoline relationship after october 17 2005 there is weak evidence of long run oil price endogeneity after october 17 2005 this structural change reverses the direction of short run asymmetry between these two time series after the break we find no significant structural break in the spot gasoline retail gasoline relationship

a sectoral analysis of price setting behavior in us manufacturing industries abstract in this paper we estimate new keynesian phillips curves nkpc for u s manufacturing industries defined at the sic two digit level over the period 1959 to 1996 this enables us to measure the extent of nominal inertia across industrial sectors a key innovation in this research is the use of intermediate goods costs rather than labor costs as a measure of marginal costs intermediate goods costs are a more significant element of costs for the firms populating our sample and are not subject to the criticism that wage rates are nonallocative we find that there is statistically significant variability in estimates of price stickiness ranging from eight months to two years we also find that estimates of backward looking price setting behavior vary with some industries characterized by 81 of pricing decisions made in a purely forward looking manner while in others only 52 of pricing decisions are made that way market concentration as captured by the herfindahl hirschman index appears to be

intra industry specialization in a multi country and multi industry framework the paper tests alternative hypotheses as to the factors determining the extent of intra industry trade defined as the share of this trade in total trade in a multi country and multi industry framework the empirical results show that the extent of intra industry trade in a particular industry between any two countries depends on the characteristics of the industry and the countries concerned the explanatory power of the regressions for the entire group of countries exporting manufactured goods as well as for trade among the developed countries is relatively high and practically all the hypotheses concerning the impact of industry trade are supported by the empirical results lower coefficients of determination have been obtained for trade between developed and developing countries and for trade among developing countries but the estimates generally support the hypotheses put forward in the paper in these cases also

the pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices abstract crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999 this paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid i e petrol diesel and heating fuel prices in such an environment the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the united states or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable or has used monthly data the main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly these features include 1 the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries the initial 12 member states 2 the consideration of different time periods 3 the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels this turns out to have important implications for our findings 4 the use of high frequency weekly data which as results will suggest are the lowest frequency one should consider 5 the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution refining costs and margins distribution and retailing costs and margins 6 the examination of prices including and excluding taxes excise and value added 7 the modelling of prices for three fuel types passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil 8 lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries allowing for the pass through to vary according to a whether price are increasing or decreasing and b whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level the main findings are as follows first as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in logarithms has important implications for the stability of estimates of pass through when oil price levels rise significantly second considering spot prices for refined prices improves significantly the fit of the estimated models relative to using crude oil prices it also results in more economically meaningful results concerning the extent of pass through third oil price pass through occurs quickly with 90 occurring within three to five weeks fourth using a relatively broad specification allowing for asymmetry in the pass through from upstream to downstream prices there is little evidence of statistically significant asymmetries furthermore even where asymmetry is found to be statistically significant it is generally not economically significant lastly these results generally hold across most euro area countries with few exceptions

new tests of the new keynesian phillips curve abstract lagged dependent variables typically play an important role in empirical models of inflation do these lags reflect backward looking inflation expectations or do they proxy for rational forward looking expectations as in the new keynesian phillips curve gali and gertler 1999 inflation dynamics a structural econometric analysis journal of monetary economics 44 195 222 attempt to answer this question using gmm to estimate specifications incorporating both lagged and future inflation they report small coefficients on lagged inflation and conclude that the new keynesian model provides a good first approximation to inflation dynamics we show that these tests have low power against alternative backward looking specifications and demonstrate that their results are also consistent with a backward looking phillips curve using an alternative approach we find that the new keynesian pricing model cannot explain the importance of lagged inflation in standard inflation regressions and find that forward looking terms play a very limited role in explaining inflation dynamics

var based estimation of euler equations with an application to new keynesian pricing abstract var based estimation of euler equations exploits cross equation restrictions that the theory imposes on a vector autoregressive var process for market expectations this paper shows that sargent s 1979 a note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure journal of monetary economics 5 133 143 original approach of imposing these restrictions on the endogenous variable of the euler equation i e computing the rational expectations solution implies multiple solutions and is therefore impracticable the paper shows that this identification problem can be circumvented by reverse engineering the cross equation restrictions on the forcing variable of the euler equation the proposed reverse engineering approach contrasts with the conventional approach in the literature that avoids the identification problem by constraining the system formed by the euler equation and the var process to yield a unique stable rational expectations equilibrium this uniqueness condition makes little economic sense because the var process is just a reduced form approximation of true market expectations and a simulation experiment shows that imposing uniqueness can lead to severe misspecification bias the severity of this misspecification bias is illustrated in practice with an application to gali and gertler s 1999 inflation dynamics a structural econometric analysis journal of monetary economics 44 195 222 hybrid new keynesian phillips curve

robustness of the estimates of the hybrid new keynesian phillips curve abstract gali and gertler 1999 inflation dynamics a structural econometric approach journal of monetary eonomics 44 2 195 222 developed a hybrid variant of the new keynesian phillips curve that relates inflation to real marginal cost expected future inflation and lagged inflation gmm estimates of the model suggest that forward looking behavior is dominant the coefficient on expected future inflation substantially exceeds the coefficient on lagged inflation while the latter differs significantly from zero it is quantitatively modest several authors have suggested that our results are the product of specification bias or suspect estimation methods here we show that these claims are incorrect and that our results are robust to a variety of estimation procedures including gmm estimation of the closed form and nonlinear instrumental variables also as we discuss many others have obtained very similar results to ours using a systems approach including fiml techniques hence the conclusions of gg and others regarding the importance of forward looking behavior remain robust

identification of new keynesian phillips curves from a global perspective this paper is concerned with the estimation of new keynesian phillips curves nkpc and focuses on two issues the weak instrument problem and the characterization of the steady states it proposes some solutions from a global perspective using a global vector autoregressive gvar model steady states are estimated as long horizon expectations and valid instruments are constructed from the global variables as weighted averages the proposed estimation strategy is illustrated using estimates of the nkpc for eight developed industrial countries the gvar generates global factors that are valid instruments and help alleviate the weak instrument problem the steady states also reflect global influences and any long run theoretical relationships that might prevail within and across countries in the global economy the gvar measure of the steady state performed better than the hp measure and the use of foreign instruments substantially increased the precision of the estimates of the output coefficient