the global financial crisis explaining cross country differences in the output impact abstract what explains differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets using cross country regressions to assess the factors driving the growth performance in 2009 compared to pre crisis forecasts for that year we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in the growth impact countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems stronger credit growth and more short term debt tended to suffer a larger effect on economic activity although the relative importance of these factors differs across country groups for emerging markets this financial channel trumps the trade channel for a broader set of developing countries however the trade channel seems to have mattered with more open countries affected more strongly and those exporting food commodities being less hard hit exchange rate flexibility helped in buffering the impact of the shock particularly for emerging markets there is also some evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were impacted less severely we find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables

the effect of sporting success and management failure on attendance demand in the bundesliga a revealed and stated preference travel cost approach abstractthis study examines the private consumption benefits of sports attendance using revealed and stated preference data from 28 football bundesliga teams across three divisions survey respondents were presented with positive sporting success and negative management failure scenarios and asked for the number of game trips if each scenario occurred the results of a pooled random effects poisson model show that travel costs and ticket price have a significant negative effect on the number of home game trips the weighted consumer surplus per game trip including travel costs and ticket prices is 345 consumer surplus per game trip was found to change by 41 first division and 98 second and third division if the positive scenario occurred and by 39 if the negative scenario occurred

external liabilities and crises abstract we examine the determinants of external crises focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970 2011 we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to gdp is a significant crisis predictor this is primarily due to the net position in debt instruments the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net fdi liabilities seem if anything an offset factor we also find that i breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction ii the current account is a powerful predictor iii foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings and iv a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in and out of sample the latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises sensu stricto

testing the validity of contingent behavior trip responses while a number of validity tests exist for contingent valuation data to date there are very few literature examples for contingent behavior cb data the objective of this study is to test the validity of cb trip data for different levels of rock climbing access using data from surveys implemented before and after a policy restricting recreational access was imposed results from generalized negative binomial and seemingly unrelated poisson regression models show significant sensitivity to scope and suggest that cb data may be a valuable supplement to revealed preference data when policy proposals are outside the range of historical conditions copyright 2002 oxford university press

estimating local welfare generated by an nfl team under credible threat of relocation this study offers the opportunity to examine the welfare contribution of the minnesota vikings to minnesota households in the context of a credible threat of team relocation we find the credibility of the threat of relocation is essential to providing unbiased estimates of welfare this study utilizes contingent valuation methodology cvm and a random utility model rum to analyze minnesotans decision making mechanisms for supporting a new stadium initiative while previous studies have attempted to measure the welfare associated with a sports franchise we develop and discuss bias that may be imparted to estimates when the researcher fails to calculate a choke price further we develop an unbiased approach to identify welfare when respondents perceive a risk of losing the franchise the range of welfare contribution by the vikings to households in minnesota is 445 3 million to 1 571 3 million according to a 95 confidence interval based on our study

estimating willingness to pay for a cycling event using a willingness to travel approach abstract this study examines the monetary value of nonmarket benefits to participants of an active sport tourism event such as happiness and pride from participating in an event willingness to travel wtt greater distances for future events is assessed and converted into willingness to pay wtp estimates using travel costs using survey data from the 2014 and 2015 blood sweat gears bike ride the intended visitation models show that changes in travel cost have a significant negative effect wtp to revisit the event was between 41 and 57 the likelihood of return visit decreases as travel costs increase indicating that wtp estimates are internally valid wtp estimates stemming from two years of data collection are stable suggesting that they are also temporally reliable this study demonstrated the feasibility of using stated preference wtt questions to assign a monetary value to nonmarket benefits of active sport tourists

did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis in a context of increased foreign exchange reserves holding from emerging and developing countries this paper investigates the diminishing return of reserves holding assumption over the most severe phase of the global financial crisis 2008q1 2010q4 relying on a panel smooth transition regression model we highlight the differential effect of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves for a set of financial vulnerabilities variables specifically while reserve accumulation is effective above a critical threshold to cope with vulnerabilities related to the financial channel we show that it becomes less effective beyond a certain threshold for domestic bank vulnerabilities

parametric analysis of setup cost in the economic lot sizing model without speculative motives in this paper we consider the important special case of the economic lot sizing problem in which there are no speculative motives to hold inventory we analyze the effects of varying all setup costs by the same amount this is equivalent to studying the set of optimal production periods when the number of such periods changes we show that this optimal set changes in a very structured way this fact is interesting in itself and can be used to develop faster algorithms for such problems as the computation of the stability region and the determination of all efficient solutions of a lot sizing problem furthermore we generalize two related convexity results which have appeared in the literature

can leading indicators assess country vulnerability evidence from the 2008 09 global financial crisis abstract we investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross country incidence of the 2008 09 financial crisis rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the recent crisis the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators our motivation is to address suspicions that indicators found to be useful predictors in one round of crises are typically not useful to predict the next round the review suggests that central bank reserves and past movements in the real exchange rate were the two leading indicators that had proven the most useful in explaining crisis incidence across different countries and episodes in the past for the 2008 09 crisis we use six different variables to measure crisis incidence drops in gdp and industrial production currency depreciation stock market performance reserve losses and participation in an imf program we find that the level of reserves in 2007 appears as a consistent and statistically significant leading indicator of who got hit by the 2008 09 crisis in line with the conclusions of the pre 2008 literature in addition to reserves recent real appreciation is a statistically significant predictor of devaluation and of a measure of exchange market pressure during the current crisis we define the period of the global financial shock as running from late 2008 to early 2009 which probably explains why we find stronger results than earlier papers such as obstfeld et al 2009 2010 and rose and spiegel 2009a b 2010 2011 which use annual data

demand for sport this article reviews international literature on the demand for professional sport the first part presents a conceptual framework for understanding the sources and determinants of the demand for professional sporting contests the second part reviews empirical evidence on key determinants of attendance at sporting events and on other sources of demand such as broadcasting sponsorship and merchandising the review concludes that there is still much to be learned about demand for professional sport and that there are no simple lessons to be drawn from existing literature but important messages do emerge from studies of demand for attendance with regard to effects of uncertainty of outcome quality of contest and quality of viewing copyright 2003 oxford university press

consumption benefits of national hockey league game trips estimated from revealed and stated preference demand data this paper examines the demand for hockey game trips among metropolitan and nonmetropolitan residents of alberta canada using data on both revealed and stated preference game trip behavior from a telephone survey conducted throughout alberta we estimate the effect of ticket prices team quality arena amenities and capacity on the latent demand for national hockey league hockey games we nd that lower ticket prices higher team quality and additional capacity encourage attendance in the status quo scenario consumer surplus per game is 50 for those who had attended hockey games and about 50 less for those who had not attended games exploiting the stated preference data we develop a number of other consumer surplus estimates we also include travel costs in the estimation of the demand function and estimate the full value of the game trip considering both ticket prices and travel costs sold out arenas in calgary and edmonton generate annual consumption bene ts of 40 and 35 million when only ticket prices are used to calculate consumer surplus i e excluding travel costs considering the full price consumer surplus for the calgary flames of 103 per game trip the annual consumption bene ts may be as high as 82 million jel r22 l83 d61

compensating differentials and the social benefits of the nfl abstract we use hedonic rent and wage equations to measure compensating differentials in central cities and metropolitan areas with franchises of the national football league rents are about 8 percent higher in the central cities but this impact may not carry over to broader geographical areas wages are about 2 percent lower in areas with teams but the standard error on this parameter is large the central city results indicate that sports franchises appear to be a public good once these quality of life benefits are included in the calculus the large public expenditure on new stadiums appears to be a good investment for cities and their residents

analysis of optimal timing of tourism demand recovery policies from natural disaster using the contingent behavior method this paper examines the applicability of contingent behavior hereafter cb method for analyzing dynamic processes and efficient policies in tourism demand recovery the cb questionnaires used for this study used a hypothetical disaster situation of bird flu in kyoto japan safety event visitor information and price discounting policies were designed accordingly respondents were then asked about their willingness to travel time the results showed the optimal timing for devising pertinent policies during the year we found that the first step requires a safety information announcement within one week immediately after disaster site decontamination the second step is the implementation of event information policy within 24th to 36th week after the disaster the third step constitutes announcing visitor information within the 37th to 52nd week after the second step the final step is the implementation of price discounting policy until the 52nd week immediately after the third step

a direct test of the homevoter hypothesis abstract we propose a methodology that facilitates a direct test of the homevoter hypothesis which posits that homeowners vote in favor of public projects they perceive increase residential property values and against those that do not first we estimate how pre referendum events that signal a higher probability that the public project will be undertaken impact local residential property values before the referendum is held these pre referendum impacts are considered noisy signals to homeowners about the market s assessment of the net marginal benefits of the project second we aggregate these market signals to the precinct level and relate them to precinct level voting results concerning the proposed project we apply this two step approach to the 2004 referendum in arlington texas for a publicly subsidized stadium for the nfl dallas cowboys the analysis supports the homevoter hypothesis and establishes a possible methodology for future evaluations in this small but growing empirical literature

for a few dollars more reserves and growth in times of crises abstract based on a dataset of 112 emerging economies and developing countries this paper addresses the question whether the accumulation of international reserves has effectively protected countries during the 2008 09 financial crisis more specifically the paper investigates the relation between international reserves and the existence of capital controls we find that the level of reserves matters countries with high reserves relative to short term debt suffered less from the crisis particularly when associated with a less open capital account this suggests some degree of complementarity between reserve accumulation and capital controls

compensating differentials and the social benefit of the nfl reply abstract professors coates humphreys and zimbalist provide a set of suggestions for the model we presented in g carlino n e coulson compensating differentials and the social benefits of the nfl journal of urban economics 56 1 2004 25 50 their two main points provide additional evidence of an nfl effect their remaining points are not persuasive

compensating differentials and the social benefits of the nfl a comment abstract in a recent article in this journal carlino and coulson g carlino n e coulson compensating differentials and the social benefits of the nfl journal of urban economics 56 1 2004 25 50 report evidence that the presence of an nfl franchise in a city raises rents in the central part of the city by about 8 we re estimate their model using several reasonable alternative specifications and find that their results are not robust to these changes the presence of an nfl franchise does not appear to increase rents for center city apartments because their results are not robust to alternative model specifications they should not be used to justify public spending for professional sports facilities

multi product lot sizing with a transportation capacity reservation contract abstract although transportation costs can form more than 50 of the total logistics costs of a product they are often neglected in lot sizing research and modelling nonetheless the body of research that does take transportation costs into account is gradually growing the bulk of this type of research however assumes that freight rates decrease as shipping weights and or volumes increase inspired by the situation with a large european manufacturing company we study a multi product lot sizing model where in any period any portion of a reserved transportation capacity can be used in exchange for a guaranteed price if the capacity is insufficient then the shipper needs to contract additional transportation capacity on the spot market where the prevailing price is higher accordingly the freight rates are piece wise linearly increasing in our model we prove that the problem of determining transportation lot sizes so as to meet warehouse demand with no backlogging allowed and to minimize total costs that is the sum of inventory carrying ordering and transportation costs is np hard in the strong sense furthermore we present a lagrangean relaxation algorithm to compute lower and upper bounds of which comprehensive computational experiments show the compelling performance in terms of quality and speed

non core bank liabilities and financial vulnerability a lending boom is reflected in the composition of bank liabilities when traditional retail deposits core liabilities cannot keep pace with asset growth and banks turn to other funding sources non core liabilities to finance their lending we formulate a model of credit supply as the flip side of a credit risk model where a large stock of non core liabilities serves as an indicator of the erosion of risk premiums and hence of vulnerability to a crisis we find supporting empirical evidence in a panel probit study of emerging and developing economies

simulation based sequencing and lot size optimisation for a production and inventory system with multiple items abstract we investigate the following decision problem a manufacturing unit has to meet a random demand for n items at the same time only one item can be manufactured manufacturing times are random whereas set up times are known positive constants but different for different items finished production is stored in a warehouse with finite capacity the availability of raw material is always guaranteed demand that cannot be satisfied by items in the warehouse will be backordered in a queue with given capacity demand that meets a full backorder queue is lost we assume cost for manufacturing items for production switches for holding items in the warehouse for waiting and lost demand for sold items a given reward is earned the problem now is to define such a manufacturing policy i e a sequencing rule and a lot size rule which maximises the expected profit per time unit since that problem is too complex for an analytical solution we restrict our search for an optimal policy to simple structured policies which can be described by a few parameters to find optimal parameter values we use simulation optimisation where a simulator for the system is combined with a genetic algorithm as an optimiser the paper is finished with some numerical examples to show the applicability of the proposed approach

the single product lot sizing problem with constant parameters and backlogging exact results a new solution and all parameter stability regions we consider the single product lot sizing problem over a finite planning horizon demand at each period is constant and excess demand is completely backlogged holding and backlogging costs are proportional to the amount of inventory stocked or backlogged while ordering cost is fixed independent of the quantity ordered the optimal policy targets to minimize the total relevant costs over the planning horizon the key results of this paper are 1 an explicit formula for the optimal total cost as a function of the model parameters and the number of cycles of the policy 2 a new polynomial time algorithm which determines the overall optimal policy and 3 stability regions for any solution considering simultaneous variations on all cost and demand parameters the proposed algorithm is easy to implement and therefore is suitable for practical use

adapting the newsvendor model for infinite horizon inventory systems abstract we address inventory decisions in the context of the reorder point order quantity policy in infinite horizon stochastic lead time demand inventory systems in which the parameters may be non stationary we develop a heuristic policy based on the simple economic order quantity eoq model and the one period newsvendor model using illustrative numerical examples we demonstrate that our simple and easy to understand heuristic policy performs nearly as well as the optimal policy derived from complicated mathematical procedures our heuristic policy is simple easy to implement and flexible in that it can be easily adapted to situations when the parameters of the inventory system may change analytical modeling under non stationary parameters would be extremely complex and the derivation of closed form optimal policies is mathematically intractable in most cases in such cases practitioners will find our heuristic policy an attractive option

combining revealed and stated preference data to estimate the nonmarket value of ecological services an assessment of the state of the science this paper reviews the marketing transportation and environmental economics literature on the joint estimation of revealed preference rp and stated preference sp data the rp and sp approaches are first described with a focus on the strengths and weaknesses of each recognizing these strengths and weaknesses the potential gains from combining data are described a classification system for combined data that emphasizes the type of data combination and the econometric models used is proposed a methodological review of the literature is pursued based on this classification system examples from the environmental economics literature are highlighted a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each type of jointly estimated model is then presented suggestions for future research in particular opportunities for application of these models to environmental quality valuation are presented

models for multi plant coordination abstract this paper addresses coordination of production planning among multiple plants in a vertically integrated firm currently there is no unified body of literature that deals with this issue we identify important issues that managers and researchers must address so that production and inventory decisions can be determined for all plants in a manner optimal for the organization as a whole

the determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009 credit growth and other sources of risk abstract in this paper we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis using four measures of crisis severity we examine a data set with over 90 potential explanatory factors employing techniques that are robust to model uncertainty four findings are of particular note first we find empirical evidence for the pivotal role of pre crisis credit growth in shaping the real economy s response to the crisis specifically a 1 increase in pre crisis lending translates into a 0 2 increase in the cumulative loss in real output moreover the combination of pronounced growth in lending ahead of the crisis and the country s exposure to external funding from advanced economies is shown to intensify the real downturn economies with booming real activity before the crisis are found to be less resilient to the global shock buoyant growth in real gdp in parallel with strong growth of credit particularly exacerbated the effects of the recent crisis on the real economy finally we provide empirical evidence on the importance of holding international reserves in explaining the response of the real economy to the crisis the accumulation of international reserves mitigated the harmful effects of financial stress on the real economy in particular when domestic funding via credit is abundant the results are shown to be robust to several estimation techniques including those allowing for cross country spillovers

ending inventory valuation in multiperiod production scheduling when making lot sizing decisions managers often use a model horizon t that is much smaller than any reasonable estimate of the firm s future horizon this is done because forecast accuracy deteriorates rapidly for longer horizons while computational burden increases however what is optimal over the short horizon may be suboptimal over the long run resulting in errors known as end effects a common end effect in lot sizing models is to set end of horizon inventory to zero this policy can result in excessive setup costs or stock outs in the long run we present a method to mitigate end effects in lot sizing by including a valuation term vit for end of horizon inventory it in the objective function of the short horizon model we develop this concept within the classical eoq modeling framework and then apply it to the dynamic lot sizing problem dlsp if demand in each period of the dlsp equals the long run average demand rate then our procedure induces an optimal ordering policy over the short horizon that coincides with the long run optimal ordering policy we test our procedure empirically against the wagner whitin algorithm and the silver meal heuristic under several demand patterns within a rolling horizon framework with few exceptions our approach significantly outperforms the other approaches tested for modest to long model horizons we discuss applicability to more general lot sizing problems

production inventory games a new class of totally balanced combinatorial optimization games in this paper we introduce a new class of cooperative games that arise from production inventory problems several agents have to cover their demand over a finite time horizon and shortages are allowed each agent has its own unit production inventory holding and backlogging cost cooperation among agents is given by sharing production processes and warehouse facilities agents in a coalition produce with the cheapest production cost and store with the cheapest inventory cost we prove that the resulting cooperative game is totally balanced and the owen set reduces to a singleton the owen point based on this type of allocation we find a population monotonic allocation scheme for this class of games finally we point out the relationship of the owen point with other well known allocation rules such as the nucleolus and the shapley value

analytical evaluation of heuristics performance for the single level lot sizing problem for products with constant demand abstract in this paper we examine the performance of several commonly used heuristics for the single level lot sizing problem for products with stationary demand and cost parameters a particular combination of demand and cost combination introduced by blackburn and millen called the lot sizing index lsi is shown to be an excellent predictor of heuristics performance for any finite horizon problem the importance of the lsi as a performance predictor is established through an analysis of the heuristics objective function and the optimal cost function

operations research in inventory management a review and critique the objectives of inventory management including the relevant related costs are examined in this paper a brief review of standard problems that have been effectively solved is presented however we point out that a serious gap exists between theory and practice in many organizations suggestions are made for bridging this gap finally a list is provided of a number of research problems whose implementable solution would have a major beneficial impact on the practice of inventory management

customer preferences attendance and the racial structure of professional basketball teams this paper examines the importance of customer based discrimiantion in professional basketball over the 1980 81 to 1985 86 seasons empirical rsesults offer strong support of the hypothesis that if fans prefer to see players of their own race teams will be influenced in their selection of players by the racial composition of their market area by the same token attendance is found to be positively related to the extent to which the racial composition of the team matches that of the corresponding market area

a multi level panel star model for us manufacturing sectors we introduce a multi level smooth transition model for a panel of time series which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables the model is positioned in between a fully pooled model which imposes such common features and a fully heterogeneous model which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity we introduce a second stage model linking the parameters that determine the timing of the switches between business cycle regimes to observable explanatory variables thereby allowing for lead lag relationships across panel members we discuss representation estimation by concentrated simulated maximum likelihood and inference we illustrate our model using quarterly industrial production in 19 us manufacturing sectors and document that there are subtle differences across sectors in leads and lags for switches between business cycle recessions and expansions copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

team roster turnover and attendance in major league baseball empirical support is shown for the propositionthat sports fans prefer the composition of their home team to remain the same from season to season controlling for price income population team quality league year the stadium effects the regression results indicate that for each percentage point increase in the turnover of the composition of the team attendance will fall by about 0 7 the implications of this heretofore ignored tendency are briefly discussed

the effect of common sources of regression error on benefit estimates discussions of the sources of error in recreation demand analysis are common in the existing literature the most traditional line of thought e g gum and martin considers the error component in predicting the individual s recreation behavior to arise from unmeasured socioeconomic factors others e g hanemann attribute at least some of this error to fundamental randomness in human behavior applied statisticians e g hiett and worrall on the other hand suggest that recall of annual number of recreational trips i e the quantity demanded is subject to substantial error still others e g brown et al have argued that recall of explanatory variables such as travel expenses contains error despite the discussion of potential error sources there is no work which relates the sources of error in the demand relationship with benefit measurement 1 of practical importance in recreational demand estimation is whether error assumptions have an influence on welfare measures since it is for public policy decision purposes that recreational demand estimation is usually undertaken will the estimated consumer surplus derived from demand analysis be independent of the assumed source of the error in the regression the purpose of this paper is to explore how the assumptions about sources of error influence estimates of recreation benefits a discussion of the various sources of error in de

dynamic lot sizing with batch ordering and truckload discounts this paper studies two important variants of the dynamic economic lot sizing problem that are applicable to a wide range of real world situations in the first model production in each time period is restricted to a multiple of a constant batch size where backlogging is allowed and all cost parameters are time varying several properties of the optimal solution are discussed based on these properties an efficient dynamic programming algorithm is developed the efficiency of the dynamic program is further improved through the use of monge matrices using the results developed for the first model an o n3log n algorithm is developed to solve the second model which has a general form of product acquisition cost structure including a fixed charge for each acquisition a variable unit production cost and a freight cost with a truckload discount this algorithm can also be used to solve a more general problem with concave cost functions

production allocation with dual provisioning abstract consider a manufacturer that has existing in house capacity to produce certain products however due to recent growth in demand the existing capacity is insufficient to meet the total requirements over a finite planning horizon as a short term solution the manufacturer has decided to order part of the total requirements from an external supplier this paper presents a model that focuses on the issue of allocating a production quantity among the in house facility and an external supplier we construct a product allocation problem that determines an optimal allocation so that the total relevant cost in house production cost ordering cost etc is minimized in addition we analyze the complexity of the problem and develop two different lagrangian heuristics for generating near optimal allocations

lot sizing for products with finite demand horizon and periodic review inventory policy abstract this paper analyzes and develops an efficient algorithm for solving a simple generalization of the classical economic order quantity eoq model where the demand horizon is finite and a periodic review inventory policy is followed such problems could arise in production shops where the product under consideration is going to be discontinued and or replaced by some other product after a certain known number of periods such problems could also arise as subproblems in large prodution inventory problems were demand rate is constant in some periods and varying in others

note a note on the dynamic lot size model with uncertainty in demand and supply processes in this paper we give some extensions of a result of nevison and burstein nevison c h m burstein 1984 the dynamic lot size model with stochastic lead times management sci 30 100 109 who discuss a dynamic lot sizing model with stochastic lead times they consider a situation in which the lead time distribution is unaltered by the amount which is ordered but is otherwise arbitrary and characterize the optimal solution in terms of points at which there is zero inventory here we give a more precise characterization and show that these results can be extended to a situation in which the demands are also stochastic and in which there is uncertainty relating to quantity as well as to the timing of demands and order arrivals the method of proof that we use is different from that used by nevison and burstein

rolling horizon procedures for the facilities in series inventory model with nested schedules this paper develops rolling horizon procedures for solving a multistage inventory problem with facilities in series in such an inventory system we assume that the raw material is processed successively through several facilities before reaching the customer the input to a facility comes from one preceding facility or the raw material and the output from the facility goes to one succeeding facility or the customer the rolling horizon procedures form rolling production schedules by solving a finite horizon multiperiod problem and implementing only the first period s decisions one period later the multiperiod problem is updated as better forecasts become available and the process is repeated the paper considers a simple case when holding costs are linear production costs on a facility consist of a setup cost and a constant marginal cost of production and production and holding costs are stationary in time demand is allowed to be nonstationary in time several rolling horizon procedures are deve

dynamic version of the economic lot size model this article originally appeared in management science october 1958 volume 5 number 1 pp 89 96 published by the institute of management sciences a forward algorithm for a solution to the following dynamic version of the economic lot size model is given allowing the possibility of demands for a single item inventory holding charges and setup costs to vary over n periods we desire a minimum total cost inventory management scheme which satisfies known demand in every period disjoint planning horizons are shown to be possible which eliminate the necessity of having data for the full n periods

the modern history of exchange rate arrangements a reinterpretation we develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes one key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries our approach differs from the imf official classification which we show to be only a little better than random it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification our classification points to a rethinking of economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes indeed the breakup of bretton woods had less impact on exchange rate regimes than is popularly believed