entry cost the tobin tax and noise trading in the foreign exchange market two types of policy have been proposed to eliminate noise trading in the foreign exchange market increasing the entry cost or imposing a tobin tax type of transaction tax in this paper we endogenize entry decisions of both informed traders and noise traders and show that these policies may be ineffective in reducing exchange rate volatility this is because these policies will discourage the entry of all traders so they may not change the relative ratio of traders or they may affect informed traders disproportionately more which increases the relative ratio of noise traders and exchange rate volatility deux types de politiques ont ete proposees pour eliminer le bruit transactionnel qui empeche le prix d etre parfaitement revelateur dans le marche des changes accroitre le cout a l entree ou imposer une taxe a la tobin sur les transactions dans ce texte on endogenise les decisions a l entree a la fois des operateurs informes et des autres qui n ont pas d information significative et on montre que ces politiques sont ineffectives pour reduire la volatilite du taux de change c est que ces politiques decouragent l entree de tous les operateurs en consequence elles peuvent ne pas changer le ratio des deux types d operateurs ou peuvent meme affecter les operateurs informes davantage ce qui accroit l importance relative des moins informes et donc la volatilite du taux de change

a political economic analysis of labor migration and income redistribution we present a two country political economic model of income redistribution with internationally mobile labor migration can be exogenous and or endogenous i e determined by labor income differentials political influence is determined by the size and homogeneity of the groups where the latter can be affected by immigration we show that immigration can increase the transfers to and the income of the mobile group we also investigate the possibility of migration regulation tax transfer policy competition and coordination and finally coordination of regulation policies it is shown that the selection of any of those regimes will depend on the particular distribution of political influence among the relevant social groups in the two countries

the dynamics of international capital flows results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model abstract the present paper examines the degree of comovement of gross capital inflows which is a highly sensitive issue for policy makers we estimate a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose inflows in a sample of 47 economies into i a global factor common to all types of flows and all recipient countries ii a factor specific to a given type of capital inflows iii a regional factor and iv a country specific component we find that the latter explains by far the largest fraction of fluctuations in capital inflows followed by regional factors which are particularly important for emerging markets fdi and portfolio inflows as well as bank lending to emerging europe the global factor however explains only a small share of the overall variation we also employ dynamic panel and time series regressions to explain the determinants of the estimated components the global factor is shown to reflect u s financial conditions

the role of transaction costs for financial volatility evidence from the paris bourse this paper analyzes the causal linkage between transaction costs and financial volatility under two methodological improvements over the existing literature first we use panel data in which exogenous transaction cost differences in the french stock market are induced by price level dependent minimum price variation rules tick size rules unlike in previous studies based on one time regulatory tick size changes like the u s decimalization we can separately identify and control for marketwide volatility changes second we avoid the pitfalls of biased volatility measurement across regimes by using the range as a tick size robust volatility metric panel regressions controlling for marketwide volatility effects show at high levels of statistical significance that the hourly range volatility of individual stocks increases by more than 30 for a 20 exogenous increase in transaction costs due to tick size variations in the french trading system in the light of this evidence higher transaction costs in general and security transaction taxes in particular should be considered as volatility increasing jel f3 g1 g14

option listing and stock returns abstract this article examines the effect of option introductions on the underlying stocks in addition to the price increase and volatility decrease that take place when new options are listed we obtain and explain the following new empirical results i an increase in the value of the market around the listing dates of new options ii an increase in the value of an industry index which excludes the optioned stocks iii the dissipation of the price and volatility effects in recent periods and iv the existence of an announcement effect in one subperiod of our sample and its dissipation in recent periods

asymmetric information and options in an extension of the kyle 1985 model of continuous insider trading it is shown that asymmetric information can make it impossible to price options by arbitrage even when an option would appear to be redundant its introduction into the market can cause the volatility of the underlying asset to become stochastic this eliminates the potential for dynamically replicating the option the change in the price process of the asset reflects a change in the information transmitted by volume and prices when the option is traded article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

who is against immigration a cross country investigation of individual attitudes toward immigrants abstract this paper empirically analyzes economic and noneconomic determinants of individual attitudes toward immigrants within and across countries the two survey data sets used covering a wide range of developed and developing countries make it possible to test for interactive effects between individual characteristics and country level attributes in particular theory predicts that the correlation between pro immigration attitudes and individual skill should be related to the skill composition of natives relative to immigrants in the destination country skilled individuals should favor immigration in countries where natives are more skilled than immigrants and oppose it otherwise results based on direct and indirect measures of the relative skill composition are consistent with these predictions noneconomic variables also are correlated with immigration attitudes but they don t alter significantly the labor market results

public pensions and immigration policy in a democracy the paper analyzes the link between the public pension system and the immigration policy in a pay as you go system the incentives for immigration vary significantly between individuals at different lifetime periods in the framework of an overlapping generations model we show that the median voter s choice in general leads to inefficient levels of immigration the median voter neglects the effects of the externalities within the pension system on other generations an immigration policy that is not affected by the median voter s choice but instead is constitutionally determined will avoid welfare losses the expected lifetime income of each generation can be increased by applying a rule of steady immigration

the welfare state migration and voting rights this paper proposes a political economic analysis of public opinion in european union countries toward migrants from poor countries by focusing on redistributive policy the analysis sheds light on specific determinants of public opinion the theoretical analysis based on the median voter framework shows that one of the key variables affecting public opinion is the voting rights of migrants where migrants do not have the right to vote their presence negatively impacts the poorest natives in countries where migrants enjoy voting rights they are able to vote on redistributive policy therefore the impact of migration on natives welfare is fundamentally different after the theoretical analysis the paper proposes an empirical analysis of europeans attitudes toward non western migrants in european union countries this empirical analysis confirms the decisive impact of migrants voting rights it shows that in eu countries the more educated natives are significantly less favorable to migrants from poor countries when the latter have the right to vote

option volume and stock prices evidence on where informed traders trade this paper investigates the informational role of transactions volume in options markets we develop an asymmetric information model in which informed traders may trade in option or equity markets we show conditions under which informed traders trade options and we investigate the implications of this for the linkage between markets our model predicts an important informational role for the volume of particular types of option trades we empirically test our model s hypotheses with intraday option data our main empirical result is that negative and positive option volumes contain information about future stock prices the information content of trading activity is a subject of widespread interest if trades are correlated with private information then the outcome of the transaction process may portend future movements in price the extension of trading to different venues or to derivative instruments however means that this link between transactions and information need not be easily discernible if there are alternative markets in which informed traders can profit from their information then where informed traders choose to trade may have important implications not only for security p rice movements but for the behavior of related prices as well this suggests that transactions in derivative markets may be an important predictor of future security price movements in this paper we investigate the informational role of transactions volume in options markets for some readers this focus may seem puzzling an option is a derivative security so its price should be dictated unilaterally by the behavior of the stock price this unidirectional linkage is only true however in complete markets if information is impounded into prices by trading then the ability of informed traders to transact in options markets mearns

how to measure labour market effects of immigration a review abstract this paper surveys available empirical evidence on labour market effects of immigration many different approaches have been used already to try to find out whether immigration hurts the labour market opportunities of natives no doubt new approaches will follow in the future as globalization will keep the migration issue on the agenda this literature review discusses the different approaches concentrating on both the methodology and the results at the end it tries to summarize available evidence

hot money in bank credit flows to emerging markets during the banking globalization era this paper investigates the relative importance of hot money in bank credit and portfolio flows from the us to 18 emerging markets over the period 1988 2012 we deploy state space models a la kalman filter to identify the unobserved hot money as the temporary component of each type of flow the analysis reveals that the importance of hot money relative to the permanent component in bank credit flows has significantly increased during the 2000s relative to the 1990s this finding is robust to controlling for the influence of push and pull factors in the two unobserved components the evidence supports indirectly the view that global banks have played an important role in the transmission of the global financial crisis to emerging markets and endorses the use of regulations to manage international capital flows

rational expectations and the aggregation of diverse information in laboratory security markets the idea that markets might aggregate and disseminate information and also resolve conflicts is central to the literature on decentralization hurwicz 1972 and rational expectations lucas 1972 we report on three series of experiments all of which were predicted to have performed identically by the theory of rational expectations in two of the three series one in which participants trade a complete set of arrow debreu securities and a second in which all participants have identical preferences double auction trading leads to efficient aggregation of diverse information and rational expectations equilibrium failure of the third series to exhibit such convergence demonstrates the importance of market institutions and trading instruments in achievement of equilibrium

does the welfare state affect individual attitudes toward immigrants evidence across countries abstract this paper analyzes welfare state determinants of individual attitudes toward immigrants within and across countries and their interaction with labor market drivers of preferences we consider two mechanisms through which a redistributive welfare system might adjust as a result of immigration under the first model immigration has a larger impact on high income individuals while under the second one low income individuals are those most affected individual attitudes are consistent with the first welfare state model and with labor market determinants in countries where immigration is unskilled income is negatively correlated with pro immigration preferences while skill is positively correlated with them these relationships are reversed in economies characterized by skilled migration

coyote ugly the deadweight cost of rent seeking for immigration policy many studies use a harberger triangle method to estimate the immigration surplus to the native born population and conclude that the benefit of immigration is very small in proportion to the size of the us economy and thus the united states does not to stand to lose much if immigration is further restricted this calculation neglects the rent seeking costs that the us economy bears when immigration policy is politically determined this study estimates the rent seeking losses that the us economy could suffer if immigration policy were reformed to further close the borders

stealth trading in options markets we investigate how price discovery occurs in the options markets through traders trade size choice by employing transactions data on all options traded on a sample of 100 firms we show that informed traders fragment their orders into small medium trades for low high volume contracts we also find that almost 60 of the price discovery occurs in the exchange with the largest market share for a given option where informed traders favor medium size trades upon examining distinct option series for a given stock we find that at the money calls display the highest information share

digital options and efficiency in experimental asset markets abstract in asset markets extraordinary price run ups bubbles followed by crashes back to levels closer to fundamental values have been shown to adversely affect the real economy leading to inefficient resource allocation and underinvestment conversely derivative markets contribute to price discovery and lead to informationally more efficient prices in the market for the underlying asset we combine these observations and test experimentally whether digital options a type of derivative that has recently been introduced to a wider audience via online prediction markets can reduce price bubbles in a laboratory setting we find that subjects do not use the derivative market to improve their expectations of future asset prices and analyze this result

does order preferencing matter 1we would like to thank david easley eugene kandel the referee g william schwert the editor participants at the dealer markets conference at ohio state university and an anonymous referee for helpful comments we gratefully acknowledge financial support from the johnson graduate school of management and the national science foundation 1 abstract this study examines how order preferencing affects the competitiveness and efficiency of laboratory financial markets we operationalize preferencing by allowing some dealers to execute a portion of the order flow by matching the most favorable quotes available increasing the proportion of order flow that is preferenced can increase bid ask spreads reduce the informational efficiency of prices and benefit dealers at the expense of liquidity traders preferencing has none of these effects however when two or more dealers are not receiving preferencing orders preferencing may significantly degrade market performance if preferencing arrangements affect all or virtually all dealers

tobin tax and trading volume tightening a reassessment this article extends the previous literature on the tobin tax and financial transaction tax we investigate the linkages between trading volumes and transaction costs using both a linear and a nonlinear methodology in stark contrast with previous studies we consider the possibility that our model may exhibit threshold effects or regime dependency by estimating a markov switching ms model this paper is the first contribution to specify the trading volume of the forex through different low and high volatility regimes our empirical investigation looks at the eur usd currency market our results show evidence of nonlinear patterns for trading volumes and transaction costs on the forex the tobin tax would not have a monotonic impact on trading activity across market conditions however the change in elasticity between low and high volatility regimes is slight 0 17 versus 0 21 we may suggest that the low variance regime might be the fundamentalist regime and the high variance regime lower tobin tax elasticity might be the chartist regime this study is a first step towards understanding which categories of agents dominate the market under the various market regimes and how they would react to the introduction of a tax this means our results are consistent with tobin s underlying thinking 1974 1978 1996 since a tax would penalize chartists more than fundamentalists it could reduce exchange rate volatility

earnings announcements stock price adjustment and the existence of option markets this paper employs a new approach to study the effects of option trading on the behavior of underlying stock prices extant research compares distributional properties of the stock price at two points in time divided by an event in the option market that might affect price behavior as an alternative we examine the stock price adjustment to the release of quarterly earnings using samples of firms with and without listed options we find the two samples exhibit different adjustment processes with the nonoption firms requiring substantially more time to adjust since the advent of organized stock option trading the investment community

on the effectiveness of capital controls the experience of colombia during the 1990s abstract this paper analyzes the effectiveness of capital controls in colombia the evidence presented points towards a relative inability of the measures adopted to reduce the level of capital inflows nonetheless the evidence suggests that non remunerated deposits have been successful in inducing a recomposition of foreign liabilities in favor of long term maturities it is likely that this is a positive result as it has made the country less vulnerable to a reversal in capital flows in this sense controls may be viewed as an effective way of internalizing the negative externality imposed by short term maturities

mobility and redistribution the ability of individuals to move freely from one jurisdiction to another is generally seen as a constraint on the amount of redistribution that each jurisdiction within a system of governments can undertake in this paper we look at this proposition by developing a positive analysis of income redistribution by local governments in a federal system we ask how much redistribution occurs when only local governments can have tax transfer instruments individuals can move freely among jurisdictions and voters in each jurisdiction are fully aware of the migration effects of redistributive policies local redistribution is shown to induce sorting of the population with the poorest households located in the communities that provide the most redistribution while the threat of out migration affects the potential for redistribution our results suggest that significant local redistribution is nonetheless feasible numerical computations indicate that the proportion of residents who are renters is a major factor affecting the local choice of level of redistribution

transaction taxes and the behavior of the swedish stock market abstract this paper studies the effects of transaction taxes on the behavior of swedish equity returns during the 1980 1987 period sweden provides an excellent laboratory style setting for such a study as taxes were imposed for political purposes rather than to alter the behavior of the stock market volatility did not decline in response to the introduction of taxes although stock price levels and turnover did large proportions of trading activity migrated overseas to london when the tax rate was increased to 2 in 1986

do investors follow the herd in option markets we investigate the previously unexplored herding behaviour of investors in option markets by examining equity option contracts traded in the us between 1996 and 2012 we document strong herding effects in option trading activity that are conditional on a set of systematic factors related to periods of market stress more specifically we find that option investors tend to herd during periods of high market volatility risk on dates of macroeconomic announcements during the financial crisis of 2008 when a large number of market option positions is either opened or closed and during periods of a large average dispersion of analysts forecasts

capital market imperfections international credit markets and nonconvergence abstract we consider a two country growth model with international capital markets these markets fund capital investment in both countries and operate subject to a costly state verification csv problem investors in each country require some external finance but also provide internal finance which mitigates the csv problem when two identical except for their initial capital stocks economies are closed they necessarily convergemonotonicallyto the same steady state output level unrestricted international financial tradeprecludesotherwise identical economies from converging and poor countries are necessarily net lenders to rich countries oscillation in real activity and international capital flows can occur journal of economic literatureclassification numbers e00 f00 f34 g14

educated preferences explaining attitudes toward immigration in europe recent studies of individual attitudes toward immigration emphasize concerns about labor market competition as a potent source of anti immigrant senti ment in particular among less educated or less skilled citizens who fear being forced to compete for jobs with low skilled immigrants willing to work for much lower wages we examine new data on attitudes toward immigration available from the 2003 european social survey in contrast to predictions based on conventional argu ments about labor market competition which anticipate that individuals will oppose immigration of workers with similar skills to their own but support immigration of workers with different skill levels we find that people with higher levels of educa tion and occupational skills are more likely to favor immigration regardless of the skill attributes of the immigrants in question across europe higher education and higher skills mean more support for all types of immigrants these relationships are almost identical among individuals in the labor force that is those competing for jobs and those not in the labor force contrary to the conventional wisdom then the connection between the education or skill levels of individuals and views about immigration appears to have very little if anything to do with fears about labor market competition this finding is consistent with extensive economic research show ing that the income and employment effects of immigration in european economies are actually very small we find that a large component of the link between educa tion and attitudes toward immigrants is driven by differences among individuals in cultural values and beliefs more educated respondents are significantly less racist and place greater value on cultural diversity than do their counterparts they are also more likely to believe that immigration generates benefits for the host economy as a whole

a note on the political economy of immigration in this note it is shown that the different attitudes towards immigration can be explained in terms of economic interest although the public immigration debate is dominated by moral and political arguments on the one hand immigration supporters are mainly found among those who may expect economic gains from immigration skilled workers and especially members of certain professions on the other hand unskilled workers who stand to lose economically because they can be easily substitued for by immigrants are for the most part opposed to immigration

hot money accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries an empirical investigation using maximum likelihood kalman filtering techniques and non parametric variance ratio statistics we gauge the relative importance of permanent and temporary components of capital flows to latin american and asian developing countries over the period 1988 1997 for the broad categories of flows in the capital account equity flows ef bond flows bf official flows of commercial bank credit bc and foreign direct investment fdi we find relatively low permanent components in ef bf and of while commercial bc flows appear to contain quite large permanent components and fdi flows are almost entirely permanent these results have a natural interpretation and clear policy implications

the informational efficiency of experimental asset markets a fundamental difficulty in devising any test of general efficient market hypotheses is the specification of the relevant public and private information sets of traders without a consensus as to reasonable empirical specifications tests of the hypotheses remain minimal or controversial in this study we examine the efficiency of experimental asset markets in which one may unambiguously identify the public and private information sets of traders we focus on how market efficiency is affected by the presence of futures markets in settings that incorporate different types of uncertainty and inside information our experimental results support four conclusions 1 market outcomes tend to evolve toward strong form informationally efficient equilibria whether or not futures markets and or event uncertainty are present 2 the presence of futures markets clearly stabilizes spot prices 3 the presence of futures markets tends to speed the evolution of asset markets to more efficient equilibria where there

trade execution costs and market quality after decimalization this study assesses trade execution costs and market quality for nyse and nasdaq stocks before and after the 2001 change to decimal pricing several theoretical predictions are confirmed quoted bid ask spreads declined substantially on each market with the largest declines for heavily traded stocks the percentage of shares receiving price improvement increased on the nyse but not on nasdaq however those trades completed at prices within or outside the quotes were improved or disimproved by smaller amounts after decimalization and trades completed outside the quotes saw the largest reductions in trade execution costs as a class effective bid ask spreads as a percentage of share price arguably the most relevant measure of execution costs for smaller trades averaged 0 33 on a volume weighted basis after decimalization for both nyse and nasdaq stocks there is no evidence of systematic intraday reversals of quote changes on either market as would be expected if decimalization had damaged liquidity supply

stock market quality in the presence of a traded option we use an economic experiment to examine the implications of asymmetric information for linkages between a stock and a traded option we find the presence of the option splits price discovery across markets and changes the process by which conditional expectations are updated the time series properties of the stock price depend directly on the intrinsic value of the option when the intrinsic value of the option is positive informational efficiency is higher in the market for the stock and volatility is lower we provide evidence that the introduction of an option improves market quality in the underlying asset

brain drain in developing countries an original data set on international migration by educational attainment for 1990 and 2000 is used to analyze the determinants of brain drain from developing countries the analysis starts with a simple decomposition of the brain drain in two multiplicative components the degree of openness of sending countries measured by the average emigration rate and the schooling gap measured by the education level of emigrants compared with natives regression models are used to identify the determinants of these components and explain cross country differences in the migration of skilled workers unsurprisingly the brain drain is strong in small countries that are close to major organization for economic co operation and development oecd regions that share colonial links with oecd countries and that send most of their migrants to countries with quality selective immigration programs interestingly the brain drain increases with political instability and the degree of fractionalization at origin and decreases with natives human capital

the pecking order of cross border investment abstract is there a pecking order of cross border investment in that countries become financially integrated through some types of investment rather than others using a novel database of bilateral capital stocks for all types of investment fdi portfolio equity securities debt securities as well as loans for a broad set of 77 countries we show that such a pecking order indeed exists the paper focuses on two key determinants of this pecking order information frictions and the quality of host country institutions overall we find that in particular fdi and to some extent also loans are substantially more sensitive to information frictions than investment in portfolio equity and debt securities we also show that the share as well as the size of fdi that a country receive are largely insensitive to institutional factors in host countries while portfolio investment is by far the most sensitive to the quality of institutions this provides new evidence in favor of some hypotheses but contradicts others put forward in the literature on trade in financial assets

are grains of sand in the wheels of international finance sufficient to do the job when boulders are often required this paper criticises the effectiveness of a tobin tax in acting as a deterrent to short run round trip speculation on exchange rate movements it is demonstrated that given the usual magnitude of a proposed tobin tax the deterrent to short term speculation will be negligible and in all likelihood smaller than the deterrent to real trade flows and arbitrage activities finally an alternative proposal for preventing currency speculations while creating incentives for global full employment based on keynes s 1940s writings is proposed

social insurance majority voting and labor mobility abstract this paper presents a political economy approach to payroll tax competition between two countries choosing their respective systems of social insurance in a context of labor mobility it considers a class of social insurance systems which includes two interesting polar cases one where benefits are linked to contributions bismarck and one where benefits are flat beveridge the type of social insurance is chosen behind the veil of ignorance at a first constitutional stage in the second stage the generosity of social insurance as measured by the payroll tax rate is chosen by the majority given that some have the possibility to move the main results are as follows first the type of mobility namely poor vs rich has a significant impact on the second stage tax competition migration equilibrium second more bismarckian systems are not necessarily more tax competition proof third the process will result in social insurance systems with a stronger than optimal link between earnings and benefits put differently at the constitutional stage the countries will tend to adopt systems which are too bismarckian

the catalytic effect of lending by the international financial institutions for many less developed countries ldcs and countries in transition cits external financing is frequently an effective constraint on economic growth and development capital inflows may be used to overcome shortages of domestic saving thereby permitting higher levels of investment as well as shortages of foreign exchange thereby permitting larger quantities of imports

controlling migration in an open labor market a direct immigration policy is no longer feasiblefor a single region in a common labor market within apolitical economy approach this paper focuses on the question ofwhether migration can be controlled through the composition ofgovernment expenditures taking into account both capital and laborincome it turns out that the median voter s income is u shaped in thenumber of immigrants therefore the government can eitherprovide less of the goods preferred by foreigners in order to minimizeimmigration or carry out an active immigration policy byshifting its expenditures towards those publicly provided goods thepaper identifies the factors that determine the government schoice between the two strategies

how do exchanges select stocks for option listing we investigate the factors influencing the selection of stocks for option listing exchanges tend to list options on stocks with high trading volume volatility and market capitalization but the relative effect of these factors has changed over time as markets have evolved we observe a shift from volume toward volatility after the moratorium on new listings ended in 1980 using control sample methodology designed to correct for the endogeneity of option listing we find no evidence that volatility declines with option introduction in contrast to previous studies that do not use control samples beginning with a handful of options listed on the chicago board options exchange cboe in april 1973 the exchange traded option market has since matured into a thriving industry in the united states options trade on five exchanges with contracts on stock indices exchange traded funds currencies interest rates and over 3 000 stocks total equities options volume traded on u s exchanges has risen from 5 7 million contracts in 1974 to over 722 million contracts in 2001 options clearing corporation http www optionsclearing com option markets have also thrived in western europe and other economies with well developed capital markets in this paper we study the listing choices made by option exchanges in the united states in an effort to better understand what determines the success of financial innovation and how derivative markets develop understanding this process has important implications for the continuing development of new securities markets domestically and globally in the new century innovation

tax burden and migration a political economy theory and evidence abstract the extent of taxation and redistribution policy is generally determined as a political economy equilibrium by a balance between those who gain from higher taxes transfers and those who lose the standard theory of the size of government in a representative democracy links the tax burden to measures of the pre tax income inequality we develop in this paper a theory which encompasses the existing literature and provides a complementary channel linking the tax burden in the presence of migration to the fiscal leakage from native born to the migrants in a stylized model of migration and human capital formation we show somewhat against the conventional wisdom that low skill immigration can lead to a lower tax burden and less redistribution than would be the case with no immigration even though migrants naturally join the pro tax transfer coalition data on 11 european countries over the period 1974 1992 are consistent with the implications of the theory a higher share of low education immigrants in the population leads to a lower tax rate on labor income and less generous social transfers

public pensions and voting on immigration in a recent paper scholten and thum 1996 analyze the impact of a pay as you go payg pension system with a fixed replacement ratio on the immigration policy in a democracy we extend the analysis of median voter s choice in two respects first in contrast to scholten and thum 1996 who assume myopic voting behavior our paper considers fully rational agents and provides a solution under this more complex behavioral assumption voting with rational agents yields a more liberal immigration policy than with myopic voters second we examine a different decision structure with a fixed contribution rate to the pension system in this case the majority rule leads to a completely different solution

why did the west extend the franchise democracy inequality and growth in historical perspective during the nineteenth century most western societies extended voting rights a decision that led to unprecedented redistributive programs we argue that these political reforms can be viewed as strategic decisions by the political elite to prevent widespread social unrest and revolution political transition rather than redistribution under existing political institutions occurs because current transfers do not ensure future transfers while the extension of the franchise changes future political equilibria and acts as a commitment to redistribution our theory also offers a novel explanation for the kuznets curve in many western economies during this period with the fall in inequality following redistribution due to democratization i introduction the nineteenth century was a period of fundamental political reform and unprecedented changes in taxation and redistribution britain for example was transformed from an oligarchy run by an elite to a democracy the franchise was extended in 1832 and then again in 1867 and 1884 transferring voting rights to portions of the society with no previous political representation the decades after the political reforms witnessed radical social reforms increased taxation and the extension of education to the masses moreover as noted by kuznets inequality which was previously increasing started to decline during this period the gini coefficient for income inequality in england and wales had risen from 0 400 in 1823 to 0 627 in 1871 but fell to 0 443 in 1901 two key factors in the reduction in inequality were the increase in the proportion of skilled workers williamson 1985 and the redistribution of income toward the poorer segments of the society for example taxes rose from 8 12 percent of national product in 1867 to 18 8 percent by 1927 and the progressivity of the tax system increased substantially see lindert 1989

portfolio capital flows hot or cold a distinction is often made between short term and long term capital flows the former are deemed unstable hot money and the latter are deemed stable cold money using time series analysis of balance of payments data for five industrial and five developing countries we find that in most cases the labels short term and long term do not provide any information about the time series properties of the flow in particular long term flows are often as volatile as short term flows and the time it takes for an unexpected shock to a flow to die out is similar across flows long term flows are also at least as unpredictable as short term flows and knowledge of the type of flow does not improve the ability to forecast the aggregate capital account copyright 1995 by oxford university press

immigration and income redistribution a political economy analysis this paper examines the effect of immigration on the extent of income redistribution via majority voting on the income tax the tax outcome depends on the size of the native majority and the initial amount of redistribution in the economy which in turn determines the skill composition of immigrants as a main result we derive conditions for multiple tax equilibria if the native majority of either skilled or unskilled is not too strong and immigrants are allowed to vote both a high tax and a low tax outcome is possible in a referendum natives will then vote against immigrant voting at best natives are indifferent towards immigrant voting

the impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market we examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market there is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market consistent with this view we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of nymex crude oil futures while there is also evidence of a longer term volatility increase this is likely due to exogenous factors such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility we also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market this analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility specifically when open interest is greater the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller

rational frenzies and crashes most markets clear through a sequence of sales rather than through a walrasian auctioneer because buyers can decide whether to buy now or later rather than only now or never their current willingness to pay is much more sensitive to price than the demand curve is a consequence is that markets will be extremely sensitive to new information leading to both frenzies in which demand feeds on itself and crashes in which price drops discontinuously the paper also shows how a result from static auction theory the revenue equivalence theorem can be applied to solve for a dynamic price path

the composition of international capital flows risk sharing through foreign direct investment abstract evidence on international capital flows suggests that foreign direct investment fdi is less volatile than other financial flows to explain this finding i model international capital flows under the assumptions of imperfect enforcement of financial contracts and inalienability of fdi imperfect enforcement of contracts leads to endogenous financing constraints and the pricing of default risk inalienability implies that it is not as advantageous to expropriate fdi relative to other flows these features combine to give a risk sharing advantage to fdi over other capital flows this risk sharing advantage of fdi translates into a lower default premium and lower sensitivity to changes in a country s financing constraint the model offers the new implication that financially constrained countries should borrow relatively more through fdi this is because fdi is harder to expropriate and not because fdi is more productive or less volatile using several creditworthiness and country risk ratings to measure financing constraints i present new evidence linking fdi and financing constraints moreover numerical simulations of the model generate stronger serial correlation for fdi than for other flows into developing countries this corroborates the view that non fdi flows are more short term and more likely to change direction

are shocks to foreign investment in developing countries permanent or temporary abstract we examine the time path of foreign direct and portfolio investment in developing countries to test if shocks have permanent or temporary effects our findings indicate that shock effects are temporary the results are robust to the strictness of balance of payment controls

political fragmentation party ideology and public expenditures in this paper we propose an original model of competition for effective political power between majority and opposition coalitions the model indicates that the electoral margin of the majority and the fragmentation of both coalitions are key variables that determine their effective political power we estimate the model in the case of the french departements our econometric results support the model and show that the per capita social expenditures in the french departements depend on the effective political power of the majority

the falsification of four popular hypotheses about the asian crisis various claims have been made about the causes of the asian crisis and its spread here we use data on the behaviour of capital flows during the crisis to test the strong forms of four such hypotheses that portfolio investors and hedge funds played a dominant role in initiating and or spreading the crisis that moral hazard kept efficient markets from predicting the crisis and finally the common lender hypothesis of kaminsky and reinhart in the process we also test implications of the calvo mendoza model of rational investor ignorance all are falsified as monocausal explanations for example portfolio investments that could not have been subject to substantial moral hazard continued to flow into asia until very shortly before the crisis likewise banks were a much larger source of capital outflows during the crisis than were portfolio investors while falsified in their strongest forms several of these hypotheses in less strong forms should play a role in a more nuanced analysis it is necessary to move past simple single factor approaches in order to produce a more complete synthetic explanation of this episode

immigration and welfare magnets this article investigates if the location choices made by immigrants when they arrive in the united states are influenced by the interstate dispersion in welfare benefits income maximizing behavior implies that foreign born welfare recipients unlike their native born counterparts may be clustered in the states that offer the highest benefits the empirical analysis indicates that immigrant welfare recipients are indeed more heavily clustered in high benefit states than the immigrants who do not receive welfare or than natives as a result the welfare participation rate of immigrants is much more sensitive to changes in welfare benefits than that of natives