borders and business cycles abstract we document that business cycles of u s census regions are substantially more synchronized than those of european countries data from regions within european countries confirm a european border effect within country correlations are substantially larger than cross country correlations these results continue to hold after controlling for exogenous factors such as distance and size we consider the role of four factors that have received attention in the debate about emu sectoral specialization the level of trade monetary policy and fiscal policy we find that the lower level of trade between european countries explains most of the observed border effect

international trade and business cycles is vertical specialization the missing link within academic and policy circles it is a given that international trade is important in transmitting business cycles from one country to another most analyses of the effects of the 1997 1998 asia currency crisis on the world economy focused on the trade linkages between the asian crisis countries and the rest of the world with mounting evidence of a slowdown in u s growth questions have already been raised about the effect of a reduction in u s imports on emerging economies indeed the metaphor when the u s sneezes europe catches a cold is often invoked to highlight the importance of these linkages recent empirical research has reaffirmed the above wisdom by finding that pairs of countries with stronger international trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles the goal of this paper is to examine whether these findings can be explained by standard international business cycle models we focus on the model by david backus et al 1994 which is the workhorse two good internationalbusiness cycle model in the backus et al 1994 model trade is induced by an armington aggregator which combines domestic and foreign intermediate goods to produce the final good while the aggregator has the drawback of forcing the specialization pattern to be determined in advance flying in the face of trade theory it has been very useful in quantitative and empirical applications we add transportation costs to the model in order to be consistent with the empirical research frankel and rose 1998 clark and van wincoop 2001 which deals with the endogeneity of trade by employing instrumental variables such as distance and adjacency we simulate the model and compute the effect of different transportation costs different trade intensities on the correlation of business cycles our main result is that the standard international business cycle model cannot deliver results that are quantitatively consistent with the recent empirical work in a world of fully integrated asset markets the model delivers a qualitatively counterfactual result as high trade intensity is associated with lower businesscycle correlations under portfolio autarky the model delivers increased correlations as trade intensity increases but the increased correlation is only a fraction of what it is in the data we then introduce the idea that an increasing amount of trade is vertical or fragmented countries increasingly specialize in particular stages of a good s production sequence as opposed to producing the entire good allowing for more of this back and forth trade might lead to greater business cycle correlation responsiveness to stronger trade ties however we find that adding the simplest form of vertical specialization to the model also falls short

trade integration and business cycle convergence is the relation robust across time and space in this paper we investigate the relationship between trade intensity and the business cycle correlation using a panel data set taken from 24 countries over the period 1959 2003 most previous studies did not account for the possibility that the business cycle correlation may be influenced by unobservable country pair specific effects our estimates using both fixed and random effects methodologies suggest that trade intensity and the business cycle correlation are positively related to one another however detailed investigation shows that this relationship exists mainly for the european countries

dynamics of global business cycle interdependence abstract in this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of the time varying interdependence among the economic cycles of the major world economies during the post great moderation period we document a significant increase in the global business cycle interdependence occurred in the early 2000s such increase is mainly attributed to the emerging market economies since their business cycles became more synchronized with the rest of the world around that time moreover we find that the increase in global interdependence is highly related to decreasing differences in sectoral composition among countries

bargaining with an agenda gradual bargaining is represented by an agenda a family of increasing sets of joint utilities parameterized by time a solution for gradual bargaining specifies an agreement at each time we axiomatize an ordinal solution i e one that is covariant with order preserving transformations of utility it can be viewed as the limit of step by step bargaining in which the agreement of the last negotiation becomes the disagreement point for the next the stepwise agreements may follow the nash solution the kalai smorodinsky solution or many others and still yield the ordinal solution in the limit

the importance of the agenda in bargaining abstract this paper discusses a multi issue bargaining game in which the players set up an agenda and negotiate on the issues sequentially according to this agenda we demonstrate that the agenda might play an important role in the bargaining and discuss the relationship between the agenda and the final outcome of the bargaining game assuming that players have conflicting evaluations regarding the importance of the issues under negotiation we identify the type of agenda each player prefers we also show that in such cases the outcome of the bargaining game need not to be efficient by demonstrating the strategic use of the agenda the paper explains the phenomenon of bargaining on the agenda

international business cycles the quantitative role of transportation costs we evaluate the quantitative effects of introducing costs of transportation into an international trade model we model these costs through the introduction of international transportation services sector costs of transportation have substantial long run effects on welfare and may impact the pattern of trade however the business cycle effects on relative price movements and on international comovements are less pertinent since decreased trade volatility counteract the effects of transportation cost variations nevertheless it is also shown that costs of transportation combined with delivery lags go a long way towards resolving in particular the international comovement puzzle

trade production sharing and the international transmission of business cycles countries that are more engaged in production sharing exhibit higher bilateral manufacturing output correlations we use data on trade flows between us multinationals and their affiliates as well as trade between the united states and mexican maquiladoras to measure production sharing trade and its link with the business cycle we then develop a quantitative model of international business cycles that generates a positive link between the extent of vertically integrated production sharing trade and internationally synchronized business cycles a key assumption in the model is a relatively low elasticity of substitution between home and foreign inputs in the production of the vertically integrated good

global business cycles convergence or decoupling we analyze the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960 2008 using a dynamic factor model we decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in output consumption and investment into a global factor factors specific to country groups and country specific factors we find that during 1985 2008 there is some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among industrial economies and among emerging market economies surprisingly there is a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor we conclude that there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence or decoupling between them

labour market rigidities and international risk sharing across oecd countries abstract in this paper we examine the role of labour market rigidities in the context of international consumption risk sharing stronger labour market regulation may make it easier to borrow against future income thus allowing shocks to be smoothed to a greater extent in addition rigid labour markets may help to enforce implicit contracts that shift risk from employees to owners of firms who in turn may diversify risk internationally using data for 19 oecd countries we show that labour market rigidities significantly increase consumption correlations and reduce the exposure to country specific shocks these results suggest that labour market rigidities improve the international sharing of consumption risks by fostering a more efficient intra national allocation of risk

employer size and compensation the role of worker characteristics the substantial effect of employer size on wages health insurance and pension coverage is examined much of the size related variation in compensation is shown to result from the types of jobs and workers hired by large employers while firm and establishment size have similar effects on wages firm size effects clearly dominate in the provision of fringe benefits particularly for pensions worker and job types explain a larger share of the size related variation for wages than for health insurance or pension coverage possible explanations for these patterns are provided

ordinal cost sharing abstract we ask how the best known mechanisms for solving cost sharing problems with homogeneous cost functions the value proportional and serial mechanisms should be extended to arbitrary problems we propose the ordinality axiom which requires that cost shares should be invariant under essentially all increasing transformations of the measuring scales following thevalueapproach first we present an axiomatization of the shapley shubik rule based on ordinality next we define and axiomatize two extensions of theserialmechanism which contrary to the friedman moulin rule are ordinal finally we note that the aumann shapley extension of theproportionalmechanism is not ordinal we propose and defend an alternative proportional extension which does satisfy ordinality journal of economic literatureclassification numbers d63 c71

global output growth and volatility spillovers this article examines discernable patterns of real gross domestic product gdp growth co movements across 29 countries using consistent time series data 1912 2008 of these countries only 12 are found to form three statistically significant groupings i e g6 six organization for economic co operation and development oecd european countries g4 four anglo saxon countries and g2 two major asian countries one may then conclude that inter alia geographical proximity cultural ties and the level of socio economic and financial ties among countries determine the global systematic co movements of growth rates our results indicate that any recession in the us initially engulfs other anglo saxon countries as well as g6 and g2 countries before exerting its adverse knock on effects to the rest of the world a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity mgarch model is also used to examine the transmission of gdp growth across these three groups and their corresponding vol

international business cycles world region and country specific factors the paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business cycle fluctuations across countries regions and the world we employ a bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates output consumption and investment in a 60 country sample covering seven regions of the world the results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries providing evidence for a world business cycle we find that region specific factors play only a minor role in explaining fluctuations in economic activity we also document similarities and differences across regions countries and aggregates jel f41 e32 c11 c32

business cycle transmission from the us to germany a structural factor approach abstract this paper investigates the transmission of us macroeconomic shocks to germany using a large dimensional structural dynamic factor model this framework allows us to investigate many transmission channels simultaneously including new channels such as stock markets foreign direct investment bank lending and the confidence channel we find that us shocks affect the us and germany largely symmetrically trade seems to be the most relevant transmission channel monetary policy reactions to strong price movements seem to play a role as well no clear conclusion can be drawn yet on the role of financial markets and the confidence channel negative domestic influences apparently more than offset positive us influences in the german economy between 1995 and 2000 but the us recession in 2001 appeared to be the main culprit in the german slump

no profitable decompositions in quasi linear allocation problems abstract we study the problem of allocating a bundle of perfectly divisible private goods from an axiomatic point of view in situations where compensations can be made through monetary transfers the key property we impose on the allocation rule requires that no agent should be able to gain by decomposing the problem into sequences of subproblems combined with additional standard properties it leads to a characterization of the rule that shares the total surplus equally hence a traditional welfarist rule emerges as the unique consequence of our axioms phrased in a natural economic environment

can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement abstract recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles we assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result we employ a three country model with transportation costs we simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures complete markets and international financial autarky our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more but the increased correlation falls far short of the empirical findings even when we control for the fact that most country pairs are small with respect to the rest of the world the model continues to fall short we also conduct additional simulations that allow for increased trade with the third country or increased tfp shock comovement to affect the country pair s business cycle comovement these simulations are helpful in highlighting channels that could narrow the gap between the empirical findings and the predictions of the model

business cycles synchronicity and income levels has globalisation brought us closer than ever research on business cycle linkages shows a tendency to model countries of relatively the same income levels jointly however the issue of whether these countries move along the same business cycles has not been formally investigated in the literature in this paper we take this approach and investigate whether each group of countries follows its own dynamics and is therefore subjected to the same business cycle and whether these cycles are independent of each other across income groups results indicate that high income per capita countries hics tend to be guided by stronger similarity in business cycles than countries in the middle mics and low income lics groups in search for an explanation of the business cycles synchronicity observed panel data analysis was explored the results from the robust fixed effects estimation show neither trade openness nor shocks to consumption underlie international business cycle synchronization but rather shocks to oil prices

dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade the j curve the authors provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in terms of trade but positively correlated with past movements they document the same properties in a two country stochastic growth model in which trade fluctuations reflect in large part the dynamics of capital formation the authors find that their general equilibrium perspective is essential the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends critically on the source of fluctuations copyright 1994 by american economic association

determinants of business cycle comovement a robust analysis abstract this paper investigates the determinants of business cycle comovement between countries our dataset includes over 100 countries both developed and developing we search for variables that are robust in explaining comovement using the approach of leamer amer econom rev 73 1983 31 variables considered are i bilateral trade between countries ii total trade in each country iii sectoral structure iv similarity in export and import baskets v factor endowments and vi gravity variables we find that bilateral trade is robust however two variables that the literature has argued are important for business cycles industrial structure and currency unions are found not to be robust

international co movements of real and financial economic variables this study presents a first attempt at investigating whether the international co movements of real economic activity conform to the same international co movements of financial activity this study tests the international co movements of real economic activity on the one hand and financial variables such as stock returns interest rates inflation rates and risk premiums on the other hand we employ a dynamic correlation model on data from oecd countries for the period 1980 2010 our findings demonstrate that international stock markets co react in accordance with the underlying international economic forces we also document three other results first the correlation among countries with respect to real economic activity is statistically positive but the level of this correlation is lower than that of financial variables second there is a significant increase over time in the international correlation level with respect to the financial variables finally the creation of the euro monetary union

bargaining and the value of money abstract search models of monetary exchange have typically relied on nash 1950 the bargaining problem econometrica 18 155 162 bargaining or strategic games that yield an equivalent outcome to determine the terms of trade by considering alternative axiomatic bargaining solutions in a search model with divisible money we show that the properties of the bargaining solutions do matter both qualitatively and quantitatively for questions of first degree importance in monetary economics such as i the efficiency of monetary equilibrium ii the optimality of the friedman rule and iii the welfare cost of inflation

bargaining under liquidity constraints unified strategic foundations of the nash and kalai solutions abstract we provide unified strategic foundations for the nash 1950 and kalai 1977 solutions in the context of negotiations under liquidity constraints we propose an n round game where in each round a seller and a buyer with limited payment capacity negotiate a bundle of divisible goods where bundle sizes can vary across rounds according to rubinstein s 1982 alternating offer game the game implements the nash solution if n 1 and the kalai solution if n and bundle sizes are infinitesimal if n is set by one player ex ante the buyer chooses n 1 while the seller chooses n we endogenize liquidity constraints and show they bind for all n even when there is no cost in holding liquidity

generalized raiffa solutions abstract we define a family of solutions for n person bargaining problems which generalizes the discrete raiffa solution and approaches the continuous raiffa solution each member of this family is a stepwise solution which is a pair of functions a step function that determines a new disagreement point for a given bargaining problem and a solution function that assigns the solution to the problem we axiomatically characterize stepwise solutions of the family of generalized raiffa solutions using standard axioms of bargaining theory

international transmission of the business cycle in a multi sector model abstract standard multi country models do not replicate important features of the international transmission of business cycles predicting cross country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high in this paper we modify the supply side of a two country model by adding multiple sectors and trade in intermediate goods the model generates a higher cross country correlation of output than standard one sector models it also predicts cross country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data we analyze the relative impact of multiple sectors trade in intermediate goods imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods home preference capital adjustment costs and capital depreciation in order to pinpoint the features which move the model s predictions closer to the data

negotiations in multi issue committees abstract we propose a non cooperative bargaining approach to the problem of collective decision making in committees by modelling this process as a sequential bargaining game the main objective of the paper is to discuss the formation of the agenda in multi issue committees and its relation to the importance of the issues we start by asserting that in the case of a single issue the set of all equilibrium outcomes of our game coincides with the set of coalitional stable outcomes we then consider multi issue committees to discuss the problem of forming agendas we argue that from the point of view of efficiency and stability the most important issues should be put first on the agenda we conclude with a sufficient condition on players preferences which guarantees the efficiency and stability of the bargaining outcomes for every possible agenda

a theory of gradual coalition formation we study noncooperative multilateral bargaining games based on underlying tu games in which coalitions can renegotiate their agreements we distinguish between models in which players continue to bargain after implementing agreements reversible actions and models in which players who implement agreements must leave the game irreversible actions we show that renegotiation always results in formation of the grand coalition if actions are reversible but that the process may otherwise end with smaller coalitions on the other hand we show that the grand coalition cannot form in one step if the core of the game is empty irrespective of the reversibility of actions agreements between players form the basis of much that game theory seeks to explain there are obviously many useful ways to categorize such agreements in multilateral negotiations that is with more than two participants it seems natural to distinguish between cases in which the coalition forms in one step and those in which the coalition grows to its eventual size by attracting new members thus recipients of marshall aid collectively agreed to american terms at the ceec in 1947 whereas a strict subset of these countries agreed to the schuman plan in 1950 with the other current members joining the eu over time similarly negotiations on climate change culminated in universal agreement at rio in 1992 whereas india and china only agreed to reduce cfc emissions in london in 1990 after other countries had signed up to the montreal protocol finally un security council resolution 242 urged that a multilateral conference be set up to establish a comprehensive settlement in the middle east whereas the process initiated by the oslo agreements and arguably camp david has consisted of a sequence of agreements between israel and its neighbours we will refer to cases in which the grand coalition forms in one step as involving immediate coalition formation or icf for short and cases in which a coalition grows as involving gradual coalition formation

diversification through trade a widely held view is that openness to international trade leads to higher income volatility as trade increases specialization and hence exposure to sector specific shocks contrary to this common wisdom we argue that when country wide shocks are important openness to international trade can lower income volatility by reducing exposure to domestic shocks and allowing countries to diversify the sources of demand and supply across countries using a quantitative model of trade we assess the importance of the two mechanisms sectoral specialization and cross country diversification and show that in recent decades international trade has reduced economic volatility for most countries

understanding the evolution of world business cycles abstract this paper studies the changes in world business cycles during the period 1960 2003 we employ a bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country specific components in the main macroeconomic aggregates output consumption and investment of the g 7 countries we then quantify the relative importance of the common and country components in explaining comovement in each observable aggregate over three distinct time periods the bretton woods bw period 1960 1 1972 2 the period of common shocks 1972 3 1986 2 and the globalization period 1986 3 2003 4 the results indicate that the common g 7 factor explains on average a larger fraction of output consumption and investment volatility in the globalization period than it does in the bw period

pairwise trade asset prices and monetary policy abstract we construct a search theoretic model where fiat money coexists with real assets and all assets can be used as a media of exchange the terms of trade in bilateral matches are determined by a pairwise pareto efficient pricing mechanism we do not have to appeal to exogenous liquidity constraints to generate asset prices that are consistent with the following facts i fiat money can be valued despite being dominated in its rate of return ii real assets with identical dividend flows can have different rates of return and iii an increase in inflation raises asset prices lowers their returns and widens the rate of return differences between assets on the normative side we show that there is a range of inflation rates that implement the first best allocation

heterogeneous firms and the organization of production firms in the same industry exhibit systematic differences in the organization of production and the structure of employment entrepreneurial ability is the specific scarce input that limits the size of a firm this input must be allocated to two activities coordinating production and monitoring workers able entrepreneurs can convert calendar time into larger supplies of coordinating effort that enable them to assemble large firms greater ability implies a higher shadow price of time which increases the implicit costs of monitoring a dispersion of entrepreneurial abilities generates an equilibrium size distribution of firms differences in monitoring costs affect the choice of worker productivities the design of products and the organization of production the monitoring cost hypothesis advanced in this paper goes a long way in explaining the equilibrium of an industry containing heterogeneous firms that differ in size and behavior

international real business cycles we ask whether a two country real business cycle model can account simultaneously for domestic and international aspects of business cycles with this question in mind we document a number of discrepancies between theory and data the most striking discrepancy concerns the correlations of consumption and output across countries in the data outputs are generally more highly correlated across countries than consumptions in the model we see the opposite

optimizing multi stage negotiations abstract we consider procedures where issues of varying importance and risk are negotiated in stages negotiation at any stage requires an agreement at each previous stage if negotiation terminates players realize the benefits from all earlier agreements we formalize this process by a strategic n stage negotiation game the expected subgame perfect equilibrium outcome is characterized by an intuitive compact formula which aggregates all the structural elements of the multi stage process we describe the optimal negotiation agenda for a given decomposition of the bargaining problem and we derive intuitive prescriptions for an optimal decomposition