can falling supply explain the rising return to college for younger men a cohort based analysis although the college high school wage gap for younger u s men has doubled over the past 30 years the gap for older men has remained nearly constant in the united kingdom and canada the college high school wage gap also increased for younger relative to older men using a model with imperfect substitution between similarly educated workers in different age groups we argue that these shifts reflect changes in the relative supply of highly educated workers across age groups the driving force behind these changes is the slowdown in the rate of growth of educational attainment that began with cohorts born in the early 1950s in all three countries

does the better than average effect show that people are overconfident two experiments we conduct two experimental tests of the claim that people are overconfident using new tests of overplacement that are based on a formal bayesian model our two experiments on easy quizzes find that people overplace themselves more precisely we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers who care only about money the finding represents new evidence of overconfidence that is robust to the bayesian critique offered by benoit and dubra jean pierre benoit and juan dubra 2011 apparent overconfidence econometrica 79 1591 1625 we discuss possible limitations of our results

relationship banking fragility and the asset liability matching problem we address a fundamental question in relationship banking why do banks that make relationship loans finance themselves primarily with core deposits and when would it be optimal to finance such loans with purchased money we show that not only are relationship loans informationally opaque and illiquid but they also require the relationship between the bank and the borrower to endure in order for the bank to add value however the informational opacity of relationship loans gives rise to endogenous withdrawal risk that makes the bank fragile core deposits are an attractive funding source for such loans because the bank provides liquidity services to core depositors and this diminishes the likelihood of premature deposit withdrawal thereby facilitating the continuity of relationship loans that is we show that banks will wish to match the highest value added liabilities with the highest value added loans and that doing so simultaneously minimizes the bank s fragility owing to withdrawal risk and maximizes the value the bank adds in relationship lending we also examine the impact of interbank competition on the bank s asset liability matching and extract numerous testable predictions

the resolution of financial distress most models of financial structure embody an assumption about financial distress that causes debt to be costly to the issuing firm this approach has been criticized on the grounds that the assumed costs could be avoided by a costless financial reorganization in this article we show that despite the possibility of costless reorganization it may be rational for firms to incur significant costs in the resolution of financial distress the main assumptions that give rise to our results are the existence of asymmetric courts to impose a reorganization on the claimants of a firm article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

a model of positive self image in subjective assessments this paper suggests a mechanism that describes individuals positive self image in subjective assessments of their relative abilities the mechanism assumes individuals have heterogeneous production functions that determine ability as a function of multiple skills make skill enhancing investments with the goal of maximizing their ability and make ability comparisons using their own production function within this framework the paper provides conditions under which there is positive self image positive self image is increasing in the ease of the task the number of different skills needed for the task and the variability of production technologies in the population

overconfidence and social signalling evidence from both psychology and economics indicates that individuals give statements that appear to overestimate their ability compared to that of others we test three theories that predict such relative overconfidence the first theory argues that overconfidence can be generated by bayesian updating from a common prior and truthful statements if individuals do not know their true type the second theory suggests that self image concerns asymmetrically affect the choice to receive new information about one s abilities and this asymmetry can produce overconfidence the third theory is that overconfidence is induced by the desire to send positive signals to others about one s own skill this suggests either a bias in judgement strategic lying or both we formulate this theory precisely using a large data set of relative ability judgements about two cognitive tests we reject the restrictions imposed by the bayesian model and also reject a key prediction of the self image models that individuals with optimistic beliefs will be less likely to search for further information about their skill because this information might shatter their self image we provide evidence that personality traits strongly affect relative ability judgements in a pattern that is consistent with the third theory of social signalling our results together suggest that overconfidence in statements is more likely to be induced by social concerns than by either of the other two factors copyright 2013 oxford university press

risk aversion and bargaining some preliminary results game theoretic models of bargaining can be thought of as falling into two broad classes a uiomatic and strategic i in all of these models the preferences of the bargainers are represented by their von neumann morgenstern utility functions a series of recent experiments has shown that these models lack descriptive power in a number of important respects in particular very clear focal point effects have been observed of a kind that will be described in somewhat more detail below that cannot be accounted for within the framework of these classical game theoretic models at the same time the success of these classical models in the theoretical economics literature rests on the intuitively appealing qualitative predictions that they make in a variety of circumstances some of these qualitative predictions may prove to have descriptive power even though other aspects of the same model do not since these models are stated in terms of the von neumann morgenstern utilities of the bargainers their qualitative predictions are inevitably involved with the bargainers risk postures

accounting for inequality in india evidence from household expenditures summary we utilize household level consumption expenditure data from india to examine the evolution of inequality during 1983 2004 various measures of inequality show that inequality levels were relatively stable during 1983 93 but increased during 1993 2004 the increases in inequality have not precluded reductions in poverty however they are also more of an urban phenomenon and can be accounted for by increases in returns to education in the urban sector to a considerable extent especially among households that rely on income from education intensive services and or education intensive occupations some of the increases in the returns to education can be linked to economic liberalization undertaken in the 1990s

an empirical investigation of u s firms in reorganization the purpose of this paper is to understand the institutional features of chapter 11 from an empirical examination of thirty firms that have emerged from reorganization we find the recontracting framework of chapter 11 to be complex lengthy and costly violations of absolute priority in favor of stockholders are frequently encountered these deviations may result from the bargaining process of chapter 11 or from a recontracting process between creditors and stockholders which recognizes the ability of stockholder oriented management to preserve firm value an example of such recontracting addresses myers underinvestment problem an investigation of the effects of chapter 11 on the pricing of risky debt is also provided the purpose of this paper is to understand the institutional features of chapter

poverty and household size the widely held view that larger families tend to be poorer in developing countries has influenced research and policy the scope for size economies in consumption cautions against this view we find that the correlation between poverty and size vanishes in pakistan when the size elasticity of the cost of living is about 0 6 this turns out to be the elasticity implied by a modified version of the food share method of setting scales by contrast some measures of child nutritional status indicate an elasticity of unity consideration of the weight attached to child versus adult welfare may help resolve the non robustness of demographic profiles of poverty excerpt

rational overoptimism and other biases rational agents with differing priors tend to be overoptimistic about their chances of success in particular an agent who tries to choose the action that is most likely to succeed is more likely to choose an action of which he overestimated rather than underestimated the likelihood of success after studying the comparative statics of this mechanism i show that it also causes agents to attribute failure to exogenous factors but success to their own choice of action to disproportionately believe that they will outperform others to overestimate the precision of their estimates and to overestimate their control over the outcome

does schooling cause growth a number of economists find that growth and schooling are highly correlated across countries a model is examined in which the ability to build on the human capital of one s elders plays an important role in linking growth to schooling the model is calibrated to quantify the strength of the effect of schooling on growth by using evidence from the labor literature on mincerian returns to education the upshot is that the impact of schooling on growth explains less than one third of the empirical cross country relationship the ability of reverse causality to explain this empirical relationship is also investigated

generalizations that aren t evidence on education and growth abstract several papers have suggested that the relationship between changes in average schooling and growth is weak in the cross country data this might call into question the relevance of micro estimates of returns to schooling at least for developing countries this paper examines the reliability of some of the aggregate evidence and presents an alternative framework for analysing these questions

overconfidence in forecasts of own performance an experimental study systematic overconfidence by individuals regarding their abilities and prospects could have important economic consequences but overconfidence has received little direct testing within economics we use experiments to test for overconfidence in people s forecasts of their absolute or relative performance in two unfamiliar tasks given their chosen effort participants have incentives to forecast accurately with opportunities for feedback learning and revision forecasts are evaluated at aggregate and individual levels we find zero mean error or underconfidence far more prevalent than overconfidence underconfidence is greatest in forecasts of absolute rather than relative performance and among those using greater effort quantity or quality

the relationship between education and adult mortality in the united states prior research has uncovered a large and positive correlation between education and health this paper examines whether education has a causal impact on health i follow synthetic cohorts using successive u s censuses to estimate the impact of educational attainment on mortality rates i use compulsory education laws from 1915 to 1939 as instruments for education the results suggest that education has a causal impact on mortality and that this effect is perhaps larger than has been previously estimated in the literature copyright 2005 wiley blackwell

empirical evidence of risk shifting in financially distressed firms this paper provides evidence of risk shifting behavior in the investment decisions of financially distressed firms using a real options framework i show that shareholders risk shifting incentives can reverse the expected negative relation between volatility and investment i test two hypotheses that are consistent with risk shifting behavior i volatility has a positive effect on distressed firms investment ii investments of distressed firms generate less value during times of high uncertainty empirical evidence using 40 years of data supports both hypotheses i further evaluate the effect of various firm characteristics on risk shifting and estimate the costs of the investment distortion

do women shy away from competition do men compete too much we examine whether men and women of the same ability differ in their selection into a competitive environment participants in a laboratory experiment solve a real task first under a noncompetitive piece rate and then a competitive tournament incentive scheme although there are no gender differences in performance men select the tournament twice as much as women when choosing their compensation scheme for the next performance while 73 percent of the men select the tournament only 35 percent of the women make this choice this gender gap in tournament entry is not explained by performance and factors such as risk and feedback aversion only playa negligible role instead the tournament entry gap is driven by men being more overconfident and by gender differences in preferences for performing in a competition the result is that women shy away from competition and men embrace it

where has all the education gone cross national data show no association between increases in human capital attributable to the rising educational attainment of the labor force and the rate of growth of output per worker this implies that the association of educational capital growth with conventional measures of total factor production is large strongly statistically significant and negative these are on average results derived from imposing a constant coefficient however the development impact of education varied widely across countries and has fallen short of expectations for three possible reasons first the institutional governance environment could have been sufficiently perverse that the accumulation of educational capital lowered economic growth second marginal returns to education could have fallen rapidly as the supply of educated labor expanded while demand remained stagnant third educational quality could have been so low that years of schooling created no human capital the extent and mix of these three phenomena vary from country to country in explaining the actual economic impact of education or the lack thereof

a theory of anticipated utility abstract a new theory of cardinal utility with an associated set of axioms is presented it is a generalization of the von neumann morgenstern expected utility theory which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability

widowhood and poverty in rural india some inferences from household survey data abstract this paper examines the relationship between widowhood and poverty in rural india based on national sample survey data on consumer expenditure in terms of standard poverty indices based on household per capita expenditure there is no evidence of widows being disproportionately concentrated in poor households or of female headed households being poorer than male headed households these findings also apply in terms of adult equivalent consumption for any reasonable choice of equivalence scales poverty indices for different household types however are quite sensitive to the level of economies of scale even relatively small economies of scale imply that the incidence of poverty among single widows widows living with unmarried children and female household heads all of whom tend to live in relatively small households is higher than in the population as a whole

changes in wage structure in urban india 1983 2004 a quantile regression decomposition summary this paper utilizes individual level earnings data from urban india to examine the evolution of wages during 1983 2004 across the entire wage distribution quantile regression analysis reveals that the effects of many covariates are not constant across distribution returns to secondary and tertiary education not only increased in the 1990s but also became more heterogeneous suggesting wage inequality may increase further in near future as more workers get higher education moreover the quantile regression decomposition suggests that the increase in returns has been the driving force behind the increase in wages in both the 1980s and 1990s

looking at the bright side the motivational value of confidence abstract the motivational value of confidence postulates that individual effort provision is increasing in beliefs on one s own ability this relation is supposed to also hold for overconfident individuals who have exaggerated ability beliefs we present the first empirical evidence on the existence of a motivational value of absolute confidence that many microeconomic models with overconfident agents build on moreover we document that negative debiasing information on individual ability diminishes effort provision a result that is of obvious relevance for many contexts such as labor relations or learning at school we also offer a strategy for identifying significant absolute overconfidence at the individual level

agency problems of debt convertible securities and deviations from absolute priority in bankruptcy it has been suggested that convertible debt can be used to reduce the tendency toward excessive risk taking in a firm that includes debt in its capital structure we show that the ability of convertible debt to perform this function is greatly reduced if stakeholders can trade in derivative securities with payoffs contingent on the cash flows of the firm we show further that bankruptcy courts can ensure the same result precisely by deviating from absolute priority our model explains two real world phenomena one why bankruptcy law seems to be structured in such a way as to favor equity holders and facilitate deviations from absolute priority and two why small firms are more likely to use convertible debt

security pricing and deviations from the absolute priority rule in bankruptcy proceedings claims ultimately awarded to shareholders of firms in reorganization were examined for a sample of 30 filings under the 1978 bankruptcy reform act we measured the amount paid to shareholders in excess of that which they would have received under the absolute priority rule and found that this amount represents on average 7 6 of the total awarded to all claimants evidence is also reported that common share values reflect a significant proportion of value ultimately received in violation of absolute priority suggesting that deviations from the rule were expected by the equity markets the absolute priority rule hereafter apr states that a bankrupt firm s value is to be distributed to suppliers of capital such that senior creditors are fully satisfied before any distributions are made to junior creditors and junior creditors are paid in full before common shareholders bankruptcy reorganization proceedings however are leaving shareholders and junior creditors with valuable assets even when senior claimants receive only partial settlements as barrett and sullivan 1988 noted traditionally shareholders have been last in line their claims on a troubled company s assets have had the lowest priority and their impact on the course of bankruptcy code proceedings generally has been next to nil but lately the balance of power has been shifting warner 1977 provided one of the early discussions of the implications of deviations from the apr baldwin and mason 1983 pp 510 511 examined the resolution of claims in the massey ferguson reorganization and provided no support for the hypothesis that the market believes absolute priority rules will be enforced if the firm defaults on its financial obligations franks and torous 1989 analyzed a sample of bankruptcies that occurred during the period 1970 through 1984 and found that 21 of 27 sample cases exhibited departures from the apr more recently weiss 1990 examined 37 firms that filed for bankruptcy between 1980 and 1986 and reported that 27 of the cases involved apr violations

developments in non expected utility theory the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk this article reviews recent developments in the economic theory of individual decision making under risk since the 1950s it has been known that individual choices violate the standard model of expected utility in predictable ways considerable research effort has now been devoted to the project of developing a superior descriptive model following an overview of non expected utility theories which distinguishes between conventional and non conventional approaches the paper seeks to assess these alternative models in terms of empirical success using laboratory and field data and theoretical usefulness the closing sections reflect on some new directions emerging in this literature

the effects of financial development in the short and long run theory and evidence from india abstract although many view financial access as a means of reducing poverty or increasing growth empirical studies have produced contradictory results one problem is that most studies cover only a short time frame and do not consider dynamic effects i show that introducing credit in a general model of intertemporal consumption creates a boom in consumption and reduces poverty initially but eventually reduces mean consumption because credit substitutes for precautionary wealth using new consistent consumption data that cover a much longer time period than most studies my empirical findings show that increased access to bank branches in rural india increased consumption initially and reduced poverty but consumption later fell and poverty rose the long term effect is still positive however suggesting that credit may have a beneficial role beyond consumption smoothing

incentives in experiments a theoretical analysis experimental economists currently lack a convention for how to pay subjects in experiments with multiple tasks we provide a theoretical framework for analyzing this question assuming statewise mo

claimholder incentive conflicts in reorganization the role of bankruptcy law when a firm is financial distress in most cases a set of mutually advantageous reorganization plans exist this article shows that the bankruptcy code by providing rules governing the negotiation process yields a unique solution to the reorganization process in addition the structure imposed by the code mitigates the holdout problem created by the individual claimant s divergent incentives article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

overconfidence and excess entry an experimental approach psychological studies show that most people are overconfident about their own relative abilities and unreasonably optimistic about their futures e g shelly e taylor and j d brown 1988 neil d weinstein 1980 when assessing their position in a distribution of peers on almost any positive trait like driving ability ola svenson 1981 income prospects or longevity a vast majority of people say they are above the average although of course only half can be if the trait is symmetrically distributed this paper explores whether optimistic biases could plausibly and predictably influence economic behavior in one particular setting entry into competitive games or markets many empirical studies show that most new businesses fail within a few years for example using plant level data from the u s census of manufacturers spanning 1963 1982 timothy dunne et al 1988 estimated that 61 5 percent of all entrants exited within five years and 79 6 percent exited within 10 years most of these exits are failures see also dunne et al 1989a 1989b d shapiro and r s khemani 1987

schooling and labor market consequences of school construction in indonesia evidence from an unusual policy experiment between 1973 and 1978 the indonesian government engaged in one of the largest school construction programs on record combining differences across regions in the number of schools constructed with differences across cohorts induced by the timing of the program suggests that each primary school constructed per 1 000 children led to an average increase of 0 12 to 0 19 years of education as well as a 1 5 to 2 7 percent increase in wages this implies estimates of economic returns to education ranging from 6 8 to 10 6 percent

investment incentives debt and warrants abstract this paper models and characterizes investment incentive problems associated with debt financing the decision problem of residual claimants is explicity formulated and their investment policies are characterized the paper also analyzes the use of conversion features and warrants to control distortionary incentives these claims reverse the convex shape of levered equity over the upper range of the firm s earnings and this mitigates the incentive to take risk it is shown that under certain conditions such claims can be constructed to restore net present value maximizing incentives and simultaneously meet the financing requirements of the firm

returns to education in india summary in india both men and women with more education live in households with greater consumption per capita yet aggregating across age cohorts and states an extra year of education brings male cohorts only 4 more consumption and provides no additional consumption for female cohorts this result is robust to 1 accounting for survey measurement error 2 different measures of household consumption and composition 3 allowing returns to differ by state and school quality and 4 age misreporting the only area with substantial returns is entering into regular wage work which still employs only a small fraction of the population

how do beliefs about skill affect risky decisions abstract beliefs about relative skill matter for risky decisions such as market entry career choices and financial investments yet in most laboratory experiments risk is exogenously given and beliefs about relative skill play no role we use a laboratory experiment without strategy confounds to isolate the impact of beliefs about relative skill on risky choices we find that low high skill individuals are more less willing to take risks on gambles where the probabilities depend on relative skill than on gambles with exogenously given probabilities this happens because low high skill individuals overestimate underestimate their relative skill consequently the wrong people may engage in risky activities where performance is based on relative skill while the right people may be crowded out

games with incomplete information game theory is a theory of strategic interaction that is to say it is a theory of rational behavior in social situations in which each player has to choose his moves on the basis of what he thinks the other players countermoves are likely to be