trade policy coordination and food price volatility many countries adjust their trade policies counter cyclically with food prices to the extent that the use of restrictions by food exporting countries has occasionally threatened the food security of food importing countries these trade policies are inconsistent with the terms of trade motivation often retained to characterize the payoff frontier of self enforcing trade agreements as they can worsen the terms of trade of the countries that apply them this article analyzes trade policy coordination when trade policies are driven by terms of trade effects and a desire to reduce domestic food price volatility this framework implies that importing and exporting countries have incentives to deviate from cooperation at different periods the latter when prices are high and the former when prices are low since staple food prices tend to have asymmetric distributions with more prices below than above the mean but with occasional spikes a self enforcing agreement generates asymmetric outcomes without cooperation an importing country uses its trade policy more frequently because of the concentration of prices below the mean but an exporting country has a greater incentive to deviate from a cooperative trade policy because positive deviations from the mean price are larger than negative ones thus the asymmetry of the distribution of commodity prices can make it more difficult to discipline export taxes than tariffs in trade agreements

political economy of public policies insights from distortions to agricultural and food markets the agricultural and food sector is an ideal case for investigating the political economy of public policies many of the policy developments in this sector since the 1950s have been sudden and transformational while others have been gradual but persistent this paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on trends and fluctuations in market distortions and the political economy explanations that have been advanced based on a rich global data set covering a half century of evidence on commodities countries and policy instruments the paper identifies hypotheses that have been explored in the literature on the extent of market distortions and the conditions under which reform may be feasible

how far down the path to free trade the importance of rice price stabilization in developing asia abstract international trade agreements are pushing the world in the direction of free trade but price stabilization which is inconsistent with completely free trade remains important in developing asia because of the large share of rice in economic output a policy of pure price stabilization for rice without consistent protection either subsidization or taxation can help to create the macroeconomic stability that is essential for sustained rapid economic growth by increasing the quantity and efficiency of investment throughout the economy pure price stabilization can also generate significant equity gains by protecting poor consumers and farmers from sharp fluctuations in prices while domestic commodity price stabilization schemes have a checkered history around the world the experience of asian countries in stabilizing rice prices offers more scope for optimism asian governments have been generally successful in stabilizing rice prices and there are several instances where this has been accomplished without sustained protection of either consumers or farmers however there is room for improved stabilization mechanisms that would lower the costs of intervention

market integration and price transmission in consumer markets of developing countries abstract world prices for agricultural commodities surged in 2006 08 and then again in 2011 12 in many developing countries consumer prices for staple foods such as bread and rice mirrored these movements this paper examines whether prices in urban consumer markets within developing countries are co integrated with prices in world agricultural commodity markets using a single equation error correction model we examine the response of consumer prices for wheat rice maize and sorghum to changes in world market prices and exchange rates in urban centers of the developing world analyzing over 60 country commodity pairings we find that developing countries consumer markets are co integrated with world markets yet we also find that the transmission of changes in both world prices and real exchange rates to domestic consumer prices is not high and that the movement of domestic consumer prices to new equilibrium with world prices after a shock to the latter is relatively slow

who are the producers and consumers value chains and food policy effects in the wheat sector in pakistan we develop a disaggregated nominal rate of assistance nra methodology to disentangle the welfare impacts of policies for various interest groups along the value chain to disaggregate effects within the producer and consumer umbrellas we apply our value chain nra methodology to the case of pakistan s wheat price and trade policy we analyze the welfare implications for various agents in the wheat flour value chain from 2000 to 2013 a period characterized by major global price volatility and by regular adjustments of domestic policies we find that the wheat policy has generally benefitted flour consumers and wheat traders at the expense of wheat farmers with limited effects on flour millers our findings illustrate that the welfare implications of policies can be quite different within the producer and consumer umbrellas which has potentially important implications for economic and political economy analyses and for the design of policies that aim to target the poorest groups along value chains

errors in the numerical assessment of the benefits of price stabilization this paper presents a simple computational procedure for determining a consumer s willingness to pay to have a price stabilization policy implemented numerical simulations are then provided which demonstrate that the commonly used expected surplus measures whether hicksian or marshallian can in fact seriously misstate the true benefits of price stabilization these simulations also illustrate the extent to which the results may be dependent upon the assumptions made implicitly or explicitly regarding the consumer s attitudes toward risk thereby underscoring the need to conduct sensitivity analyses to determine the robustness of cost benefit assessments with respect to these assumptions

implications of domestic price insulation for global food price behavior abstract rapid changes in global food prices in recent years are widely viewed as a serious threat to global development while various sources of price instability in agriculture have been identified little attention appears to have been given to the importance of changes in trade policies that insulate domestic prices from world markets as a source of volatility in world prices a contribution of this paper is to show that these interventions are dynamically more complex than simple proportional insulation insulation against an initial price increase in world prices increases the magnitude of that increase while subsequent adjustments to the level of protection change the fundamental nature of price volatility we find such policies are widespread and increase the volatility of world prices while not reducing the volatility of domestic prices because of the collective action problem involved in this form of policy intervention

the growth of agricultural protection in europe in the 19th and 20th centuries 1247 johan f m swinnen dramatic changes took place in agricultural policies in europe in the 19th and 20th centuries in the 1860s european nations agreed on a series of trade agreements which spread free trade across the continent in the 1960s european nations concluded an international agreement which spread heavy government intervention and protection against imports across the continent this paper quantifies these changes in protection over the course of a century relates them to changes in policies and offers a political economy explanation for the growth in agricultural protection in europe

price stabilization and impacts of trade liberalization in the southeast asian rice market abstract a global rice model using a partial equilibrium framework is used to investigate the impact of trade liberalization in major rice trading countries of southeast asia focusing on the price stabilization mechanism that has long been adopted by governments in indonesia malaysia and the philippines the simulation results suggest that the removal of state trading enterprises in these three countries would lower their domestic prices by as much as 34 but increase the world prices by about 20 when free trade liberalization is realized in 2020 domestic prices decline further in indonesia and the philippines leading to an increase in their imports which are estimated to be as much as 4 5 million tons the impact on domestic prices however is absorbed nearly evenly among indonesia the philippines thailand and vietnam

on money and output is money redundant abstract there is an emerging consensus that money can be largely ignored in making monetary policy decisions rudebusch and svensson 1999 policy rules and inflation targeting in taylor j b ed monetary policy rules university of chicago press chicago 203 246 2002 eurosystem monetary targeting lessons from us data european economic review 46 417 442 provide some empirical support for this view we reconsider the role of money and find that money is not redundant more specifically there is a significant statistical relationship between lagged values of money and the output gap even when lagged values of real interest rates and lagged values of the output gap are accounted for we also find that inside and outside money provide significant information in predicting movements in the output gap

causes of u s farm commodity programs this paper i s an attempt to explain variations by commodity in producer protection afforded by farm price support programs since the1930s particularly emphasized are theideas that these programs are essentially income redistributional measures and that given political forces the programs are attempts to redistribute efficiently variables associated with the cost to producers of generating political pressure and the social cost deadweight losses of redistribution are both found to be empirically important copyright 1987 by university of chicago press

production organization and efficiency during transition an empirical analysis of east german agriculture enterprise restructuring is expected to improve efficiency in transition economies with data from former east germany we compare the efficiency of family farms and partnerships with large scale successor organizations of the collective and state farms lsos using parametric and nonparametric techniques we show that lsos display lower technical efficiency than do family farms and partnerships but that this difference is small and declining during transition mainly as a result of structural changes in agriculture family farms are not as scale efficient as partnerships and lsos and partnerships are superior to all other organizational forms

some dynamic aspects of food standards food standards have existed since the beginning of trade and exchange but have increased and expanded in recent years affecting global and local value chains this has triggered vigorous debates on the impacts on trade and development standards may simultaneously enhance economic efficiency and redistribute rents complicating policy analysis and implying that the economics and the politics of standards are often hard to separate while substantial research has contributed important insights dynamic aspects of standards have not received much attention i present a framework to illustrate some dynamic economic and political aspects of standards in closed and open economies this framework integrates changes over time in preferences implementation costs and protectionist pressures as determinants of standards and suggests explanations for persistent differences in food standards across countries hysteresis in standards can persist due to protectionist motives even if the initial standards were not introduced for protectionist reasons i use some historical cases to document both the persistence and adjustment of standards over time and with international integration

optimal food price stabilization in a small open developing country in poor countries most governments implement policies aiming to stabilize the prices of staple foods which often include storage and trade measures insulating their domestic market from the world market it is of crucial importance to understand the precise motivations and efficiency of those interventions because they can have consequences worldwide this paper addresses those issues by analyzing the case of a small open developing country confronted by shocks to both the crop yield and foreign price in this model government interventions may be justified by the lack of an insurance market for food prices considering this market imperfection the authors design optimal public interventions through trade and storage policies they show that an optimal trade policy largely consists of subsidizing imports and taxing exports which benefits consumers at the expense of producers import subsidies alleviate the non negativity of food storage in other words when stocks are exhausted subsidizing imports prevents domestic price spikes one striking result an optimal storage policy on its own is detrimental to consumers since its stabilizing benefits leak into the world market and it raises the average domestic price by contrast an optimal combination of storage and trade policies results in a powerful stabilizing effect for domestic food prices

the microeconomics of the developmental paradox on the political economy of food price policy abstract a longstanding puzzle in comparative economics is the developmental paradox the tendency for government support for agriculture to increase with national income and to decrease with the proportion of economic activity and of the population in agriculture this paper offers a microeconomic explanation for that puzzle it establishes analytically the microeconomic basis for coalition alignments with respect to food price policy then numerically simulates the comparative static effects of alternative food policies on coalition structure a parsimonious household model applied to a heterogeneously endowed society demonstrates how variation in individual welfare effects might beget distinct coalitions in the debate over food price policy and how those policies are inextricably linked to land population and technology policies in food agriculture moreover coalition alignments on particular policy debates are path dependent in particular food price policy creates its own political support

on the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries abstract conventional welfare measures of the costs of food price fluctuations in low income countries are extended to allow for both economic growth and food security effects the analysis reveals that growth and food security effects may dominate more conventional welfare costs of food price fluctuations although estimating the empirical magnitude of the effects is hampered by the lack of consensus on the extent to which food price fluctuations actually reduce economic growth and food security even if the welfare costs of food price fluctuations are high there are many challenges to the design and successful implementation of price stabilization schemes

on price risk and the inverse farm size productivity relationship abstract the oft observed inverse relationship between farm size and productivity has elicited several explanations having important policy and theoretical implications using advances in the analysis of price risk effects on producer behavior and a simple two period model of an agricultural household that both produces and consumes under price uncertainty at the time labor allocation decisions are made this paper demonstrates analytically that a non degenerate land distribution and price risk can together produce an inverse relationship even absent any of the more common explanations empirical evidence from madagascar confirms the plausibility of this intuitive explanation for the phenomenon

food price volatility in sub saharan africa has it really increased the food price crisis of 2007 2008 and recent resurgence of food prices have focused increasing attention on the causes and consequences of food price volatility in international food markets and the developing world particularly in sub saharan africa in this paper we examine the patterns and trends in food price volatility using an unusually rich database of african staple food prices we find that international grain prices have become more volatile in recent years 2007 2010 but no evidence that food price volatility has increased in the region this contrasts with the widespread view that food prices have become more volatile in the region since the global food crisis of 2007 2008 in addition the results suggest that price volatility is lower for processed and tradable food than for nontradable food that volatility is lower in the major cities than in secondary cities and that maize price volatility is actually higher in countries with the most active intervention to stabilize maize prices these findings suggest that greater attention should be given to the high level of food prices in the region rather than volatility per se that regional and international trade can play a useful role in reducing food price volatility and that traditional food price stabilization efforts may be counterproductive

price manipulation in the bitcoin ecosystem abstract to its proponents the cryptocurrency bitcoin offers the potential to disrupt payment systems and traditional currencies it has also been subject to security breaches and wild price fluctuations this paper identifies and analyzes the impact of suspicious trading activity on the mt gox bitcoin currency exchange in which approximately 600 000 bitcoins btc valued at 188 million were fraudulently acquired during both periods the usd btc exchange rate rose by an average of four percent on days when suspicious trades took place compared to a slight decline on days without suspicious activity based on rigorous analysis with extensive robustness checks the paper demonstrates that the suspicious trading activity likely caused the unprecedented spike in the usd btc exchange rate in late 2013 when the rate jumped from around 150 to more than 1 000 in two months

competitive storage and commodity price dynamics by buying cheap and selling dear risk neutral commodity speculators can smooth commodity prices and induce serial dependence in price even when none would exist under a simple process of supply and demand commodity prices are variable and strongly positively correlated from one year to the next the variability is often explained by supply factors and the autocorrelation by the activities of speculators we show that this explanation is not consistent with the evidence speculation can substantially increase autocorrelation for prices that are weakly autocorrelated in its absence but not to the high levels that are observed in the data

small menu costs and large business cycles a macroeconomic model of monopoly i introduction the conflict between modern neoclassical and traditional keynesian theories of the business cycle centers upon the pricing mechanism in neoclassical models prices are fully flexible they represent the continuous optimization of economic agents and the continuous intersection of supply and demand in keynesian models prices are often assumed to be sticky they do not necessarily equilibrate all markets at all times one of the reasons for the resurgence of the equilibrium approach to macroeconomics has been the absence of a theoretical underpinning for this keynesian price stickiness this note shows that sticky prices can be both privately efficient and socially inefficient the business cycle results from the suboptimal adjustment of prices in response to a demand shock to the extent that policy can stabilize aggregate demand it can mitigate the social loss due to this suboptimal adjustment in some keynesian models prices are simply exogenously fixed 2 in others agents must set their prices in advance of the transaction date the act of altering a posted price is certainly costly these costs include such items as printing new catalogs and informing salesmen of the new price yet these menu costs are small and therefore generally perceived as providing only a weak foundation for these fixed price models however this inference is flawed small menu costs can cause large welfare losses the claim that price adjustment costs are small does not rebut the claim that they are central to understanding economic fluctuations

reflections on food crises past abstract world food crises are relatively rare events occurring roughly three times a century but they also tend to be regular events every three decades or so suggesting there is an underlying cyclical cause if so far sighted donor and government investments in raising agricultural productivity and policies on behalf of stable food production and prices might go a long way to preventing food crises in the future preventing food crises rather than trying to cope after the fact with their impact on the poor is the only way to avoid substantial perhaps permanent damage to the welfare of poor households lessons from the world food crises in 1972 73 and in 2007 08 especially lessons from how the world rice market functioned point the way toward improved food policy management at national and international levels in the future

trading off volatility and distortions food policy during price spikes this paper analyses the trade off between price distortions and reduced volatility when governments intervened in agricultural and food markets during the recent food price spikes we develop a model to derive how much distortions a government would introduce when it cares about price stability in a situation with limited policy options we show that there is a trade off and identify the optimal combination of distortions and stability for given international price shocks and interest groups preferences for stability we compare these theoretical findings with empirical indicators on actual government interventions in staple food markets we find that several countries have been able to reduce short run price volatility in the domestic markets while at the same time allowing structural medium and long term price changes to pass through to producers and consumers however this is not the general case for many countries even when explicitly taking into account the trade off and the benefits of reducing volatility government policies appear far removed from the optimal trade off and there appears to be much room for policy improvement

food price policy the rationale for government intervention abstract policy makers in the most successful developing countries have not accepted either of the two major schools of thought on food price policy the neo classical school favours free trade to maximize efficiency of resource allocation the structuralist school favours interventions to satisfy goals for income distribution especially in the rapidly growing rice based economies of asia policy makers have been more concerned about stability of domestic prices than their level relative to world prices this concern traditionally dismissed by economists as purely political is justified on economic grounds because of improved macroeconomic and dynamic efficiency from stable food prices the paper identifies both the benefits from food price stability and the costs of achieving it

fighting global food price rises in the developing world the response of china and its effect on domestic and world markets this article addresses how china is being affected by and is responding to the world food crisis so far chinese officials have responded to higher world prices by drawing down stocks and limiting exports of major grains these policy instruments were not available for soybeans so domestic prices of soy and other oilseeds have risen with international prices using a global cge model we show that the initial world price rise was largely due to higher world oil prices and demand for biofuels as opposed to other factors especially in maize and soybeans china s response to this shock has kept domestic grain prices low relative to world grain markets and to domestic soybean prices as grain stocks are depleted however demand growth will push domestic prices back into alignment anticipating this pressure on consumers and accelerating supply response through public investment will facilitate adjustment

determinants of technical efficiency of crop and livestock farms in poland la pologne est l un des pays d europe de l est candidats a une accession a l union europeenne qui rencontre de graves problemes de restructuration agricole l article etudie l efficacite technique en 2000 d exploitations agricoles individuelles polonaises specialisees en elevage et en grandes cultures l efficacite est estimee par la methode de frontiere stochastique et sa variabilite statistique evaluee par la construction d intervalles de confiance l article examine egalement les determinants de l efficacite les resultats obtenus pas la methode de frontiere stochastique sont compares avec ceux obtenus par la methode de data envelopment analysis dea en moyenne l efficacite technique des exploitations d elevage est superieure a celle des exploitations de grandes cultures pour les deux specialisations la relation entre l efficacite et la taille des exploitations est positive les grandes exploitations sont les plus efficaces les resultats obtenus par la methode de frontiere stochastique sont generalement confirmes par la methode dea la qualite de la terre et le degre d integration dans les marches d aval sont d importants determinants de l efficacite la faible education est un obstacle majeur a l efficacite en particulier pour les exploitations de grandes cultures de plus celles ci utilisent beaucoup les marches de facteurs terre et travail alors que les exploitations d elevage utilisent plutot leurs propres terres et le travail familial