learning to believe in sunspots a number of authors have shown that competitive economies may possess sunspot equilibria that is rational expectations equilibria in which purely extrinsic uncertainty affects equilibrium prices and allocations 2 such results demonstrate that it does not require a lack of faith in the rationality of market participants to believe that competitive markets may be subject to purely speculative fluctuations driven solely by expectations 3 the mere existence of sunspot equilibria as solutions to a system of marketclearing conditions however might not be judged sufficient to indicate that competitive markets with rational participants could ever be subject to speculative instability the sunspot equilibria represent states of affairs in which agents act differently in the case of different realizations of the sunspot variable and it is rational for each agent to do so but it might be thought unlikely that the beliefs of all the participants in the market could ever come to be coordinated so as to bring about an equilibrium of that kind it is rational to believe that sunspots convey information about future states of affairs once the economy is in a sunspot equilibrium but why would rational agents ever begin to believe in such a thing so as to create the conditions under which the belief is rational in order to address such a question one must go beyond the mere statement of the conditions for equilibrium and discussion of what states of affairs satisfy them one must specify an explicit dynamic process according to which the beliefs of agents adjust when out of equilibrium any exercise of this kind is necessarily unsatisfactory as there is no univocal meaning for the postulate of rational behavior outside of an equilibrium it may well be the case that

expectationally driven market volatility an experimental study abstract we study the existence and robustness of expectationally driven price volatility in experimental overlapping generation economies in the theoretical model under study there exist pure sunspot equilibria which can be learned if agents use some adaptive learning rules our data show the existence of expectationally driven cycles but only after subjects have been exposed to a sequence of real shocks and learned a real cycle in this sense we show evidence of path dependent price volatility journal of economic literature classification numbers c62 c92 f17 e32 e44

the prisoners dilemma in the invisible hand an analysis of intrafirm productivity this paper attempts to show that it is useful to view productivity as a prisoners dilemma problem that conventions are alternative solutions to the prisoners dilemma that effort conventions are usually nonoptimal and that a shock is necessary in order to shift from one nonoptimal solution to another within this framework the invisible hand does not produce a pareto optimal result it is consistent with any number of nonoptimal effort conventions

understanding corporate coherence theory and evidence abstract multiproduct firms are perceived to be coherent in their scope yet there is no strong theoretical foundations to explain coherence in modern industrial organization theory this paper shows that as u s manufacturing firms grow more diverse they maintain a constant level of coherence between neighboring activities this finding runs counter to the idea that firms with many activities are generally more incoherent a framework is then presented which appeals to the nature of enterprise learning path dependencies and the nature of the selection environment to explain the ubiquity of coherent diversifiers

why do monetary policies matter an experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model we study experiments of an overlapping generations model where inflation is determined by the monetary policy and by the amount of average saving within each period we use a new experimental setup that allows us to observe more details of the process of expectation forming and separate this process from the actual saving process in contrast to experimental findings by lim prescott sunder marimon spear sunder and marimon sunder we find that 1 agents do not form first order adaptive expectations 2 subjects over save for precautionary reasons as a result 3 the so called friedman conjecture holds i e monetary policies which are equivalent in static equilibrium exhibit different levels and different volatility of inflation in the experiment this may generate important policy trade offs between monetary regimes we discuss our findings and relate them to current research on adaptive learning and the role it may have in ranking alternative monetary policies

bubble formation and in efficient markets in learning to forecast and optimise experiments this experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects 1 submit a price forecast only 2 choose quantity to buy sell and 3 perform both tasks we find deviation of the market price from the fundamental price in all treatments but to a larger degree in treatments 2 and 3 mispricing is therefore a robust finding in markets with positive expectation feedback some very large recurring bubbles arise where the price is three times larger than the fundamental value which were not seen in former experiments

the entrepreneur s reward for self policing the collaboration among people is often subject to shirking the net gain from the collaboration depends on the contract governing it i argue that the entrepreneur assumes the role of the residual claimant because his actions are more costly to monitor than those of the factors with which he collaborates by offering fixed pay contracts to others and himself becoming residual claimant the entrepreneur curtails his incentive to gain at the expense of his partners and the net gain from the collaboration is then maximized costly monitoring applies to both labor and capital and thus the entrepreneur may supply both labor services and capital the entrepreneur s capital serves to guarantee the pay of the other factors

the flypaper effect what happens to a state s spending when it receives an unconditional grant from the federal government the standard theoretical analysis predicts that the increase in spending will be the same as that generated by an equivalent increase in local incomes or roughly 5 10 percent for most states in contrast numerous empirical analyses have found that spending increases by much more with some estimates near 100 percent this result is known as the flypaper effect since the money appears to stick where it hits the authors review this evidence as well as other studies that find similar behavior in firms

anti williamson a marxian critique of new institutional economics new institutional economics explains capitalist institutions by means of neoclassical tools this method consists of introducing non market institutions as solutions to market failures the explicit or implicit assumption is that in the beginning there were markets in this paper we criticise this conception inherited from neoclassical economics by focusing on williamson s theory first we discuss williamson s speculative method which idealises the market and presents it as natural and universal we then suggest that williamson s categories his method and conception are themselves products of bourgeois ideology in this sense we conclude williamson himself is ultimately an institution of capitalism

behavioral learning equilibria we propose behavioral learning equilibria where boundedly rational agents learn to use a simple univariate linear forecasting rule with correctly specified unconditional mean and first order autocorrelation in the long run agents learn the best univariate linear forecasting rule without fully recognizing the more complex structure of the economy an important feature of behavioral learning equilibria is simplicity and parsimony which makes coordination of individual expectations on such an aggregate outcome more likely in a first application an asset pricing model driven by ar 1 ar 1 dividends a unique behavioral learning equilibrium exists characterized by high persistence and excess volatility and it is stable under learning in a second application the new keynesian phillips curve multiple equilibria coexist learning exhibits path dependence and inflation may switch between low and high persistence regimes

stimulating the macro economy through state and local governments the economic stimulus program of early 1977 featured a strong dose of what might be termed indirect countercyclical policy rather than altering federal expenditures and taxes directly the stimulus program consisted mainly of three different grant programs for state and local governments a countercyclical revenue sharing crs b public service employment pse c local public works lpw in the parlance of the public finance literature the first of these grants was an unconditional block grant the second was a close ended categorical grant with no local matching for the purpose of stimulating local government employment and the third was a close ended categorical grant with no local matching for the purpose of stimulating local government construction stimulating or attempting to stimulate aggregate spending through state and local governments in this way is fiscal federalism with a vengeance the federal government is not abdicating its stabilization responsibilities and leaving it up to states and localities to do the job but it is placing its own stabilization policy at the mercy of the behavior of state and local governments there are no restrictions at all on the use of the crs grantsthey can be spent used for tax reduction or used to rebuild financial net worth asset stocks less outstanding debt with only the first two uses having any stimulative effect at all there are restrictions on what can be done with the other two grants but the well known displacement phenomenon implies that with these grants it also may be possible for states and localities to frustrate the restrictions and use the grants as they would any other source of revenue sharing what happens to all three grants then is an empirical issue and the timing and magnitude of any stabilization impact depends on how the numbers come out in this paper i briefly describe a model for estimating this stabilization impact and show what it suggests for the three grants only the pse grant will be seen to have any positive short run impact on aggregate spending at all and that impact will prove to be both diluted and short lived indicating that the general idea of stimulating the economy through state and local governments is probably not a very good one plain old permanent federal income tax cuts retain their superiority as a fiscal stabilization device but even though as stimulation devices the three grant programs leave much to be desired as policies they may still be valuable and the paper also suggests how one might do a more complete evaluation of each of the grant programs

comparative empirical observations on worker owned and capitalist firms abstract the paper analyzes the available quantitative information on worker owned and capitalist firms in a few industrialized countries in an attempt to draw a comparative profile of their respective sectors the population of worker owned firms is found to be heterogeneous changing over time and significantly different from the population of capitalist firms worker owned firms are smaller concentrate in a few industries and since the mid 1970s have higher birth rates and lower demise rates than capitalist firms these findings are interpreted with the aid of a theoretical framework and in a broad historical context

the dynamic capabilities of firms an introduction an expanded paradigm is needed to explain how competitive advantage is gained and held firms resorting to resource bas ed strategy attempt to accumulate valuable technology assets and employ an aggressive intellectual property stance however winners in the global marketplace have been firms demonstrating timely responsiveness and rapid and flexible product innovation along with the management capability to effectively coordinate and redeploy internal and external competences this source of competitive advantage dynamic capabilities emphasizes two aspects first it refers to the shifting character of the environment second it emphasizes the key role of strategic management in appropriately adapting integrating and re configuring internal and external organizational skills resources and functional competences toward changing environment 3 only recently have researchers begun to focus on the specifics of developing firm specific capabilities and the manner in which competences are renewed to respond to shifts in the business environment the dynamic capabilities approach provides a coherent framework to integrate existing conceptual and empirical knowledge and facilitate prescription this paper argues that the competitive advanis tage of firms stems from dynamic capabilities rooted in high performance routines z operating inside the firm embedded in the firm s processes and conditioned by its history it offers dynamic capabilities as an emerging paradigm of the modern business j firm that draws on multiple disciplines and advances with the help of industry studies in the usa and elsewhere

forward and backward dynamics in implicitly defined overlapping generations models in dynamic economic models derived from optimization principles the forward equilibrium dynamics may not be uniquely defined while the backward dynamics is well defined we derive properties of the global forward equilibrium paths based on properties of the backward dynamics we propose the framework of iterated function systems ifs to describe the set of forward equilibria and apply the ifs framework to a one and a two dimensional version of the overlapping generations olg model we show that if the backward dynamics is chaotic and has a homoclinic orbit a snap back repeller the set of forward equilibrium paths converges to a fractal attractor forward equilibria may be interpreted as sunspot equilibria where a random sunspot sequence determines equilibrium selection at each date

activist fiscal policy during and after the great recession that began in december 2007 the u s federal government enacted several rounds of activist fiscal policy in this paper we review the recent evolution of thinking and evidence regarding the effectiveness of activist fiscal policy although fiscal interventions aimed at stimulating and stabilizing the economy have returned to common use their efficacy remains controversial we review the debate about the traditional types of fiscal policy interventions such as broad based tax cuts and spending increases as well as more targeted policies while there have been improvements in estimates of the effects of broad based policies much of what has been learned recently concerns how such multipliers might vary with respect to economic conditions such as the credit market disruptions and very low interest rates that were central features of the great recession the eclectic and innovative interventions by the federal reserve and other central banks during this period highlight the imprecise divisions between monetary and fiscal policy and the many channels through which fiscal policies can be implemented

coase revisited business groups in the modern economy ronald coase s celebrated query as to why economic actors typically aggregate into entities called firms rather than transacting as individuals in a market has engendered a vigorous stream of research this paper asks a parallel question why is it that in all modern economies firms themselves aggregate into larger entities often more stable than any literature predicts which are here referred to as business groups after establishing some working definitions and discussing the curious conjunction of empirical importance and analytical invisibility of business groups an attempt is made to establish the most significant dimensions along which such groups vary we end with some speculations on the role of these groups in economic development copyright 1995 by oxford university press

the nature of the firm and peculiarities of the corporation i must thank the independent social research foundation for generous funding of the research on which this paper draws

general revenue sharing and public sector unions abstract in this paper i find that in the context of a large intergovernmental general revenue sharing program implemented from 1972 to 1986 cities increased expenditures one for one with federal grants which is suggestive of a large flypaper effect furthermore i find that cities in states with pro union collective bargaining laws spent more than half of the transfers on increased wages while cities in states without such laws spent a greater fraction on increased government services these latter findings suggest that public sector unions play an important role in determining the usage and impact of intergovernmental grants

selection dynamics asymptotic stability and adaptive behavior selection dynamics are often used to distinguish stable and unstable equilibria this is particularly useful when multiple equilibria prevent a priori comparative static analysis this paper reports an experiment designed to compare the accuracy of the myopic best response dynamic and an inertial selection dynamic the inertial selection dynamic makes more accurate predictions about the observed mutual best response outcomes

on endogenous competitive business cycles the belief that the long run equilibrium of a competitive monetary economy that does not experience any exogeneous shocks whether originating from the external environment or from policy should be modelled as a state that is stationary or perhaps growing at a constant rate seems to be deeply rooted in the mind of some economists

the american recovery and reinvestment act solely a government jobs program abstract this paper estimates the private and government sector employment effects of american recovery and reinvestment act arra spending via an instrumental variables strategy we argue that this aid was effectively fungible and states used it to offset declines in revenue this enables us to use exogenous variation in states budget positions to identify the act s employment effects we also exploit exogenous variation across states in arra highway funding according to our benchmark estimates average state and local government employment during the 24 months following the program s inception was between 156 000 and 563 000 persons greater as a result of arra spending 90 confidence interval the corresponding estimate for the private sector ranges from a loss of 182 000 to a gain of 1 1 million jobs our point estimate for the implied cost of creating a job lasting one year is 202 000 which is substantially larger than the corresponding estimate from the president s council of economic advisors

the neglect of society in the theory of the firm a systems theory perspective the prevailing theories of the firm acknowledge the importance of trust and loyalty but neglect such behaviour in the substance of their analyses the present paper unravels this paradox by drawing on niklas luhmann s ground breaking insight that the complexity reducing function of social systems leads them to neglect their critical environmental dependencies thereby compromising their own sustainability if the firm is conceived as a social system luhmann s theory implies that the neglect of social behaviour by the predominant theories of the firm can be explained as reflecting the neglect of society by actual firms this argument promises to not only furnish the theory of the firm with a concern for sustainability but also render it more amenable to unconventional institutions such as cooperatives and non profit organisations that help compensate for the damage inflicted by conventional firms on the social environment

asymmetric information and agenda control the bases of monopoly power in public spending abstract a pervasive empirical finding widely known as the flypaper effect is that lump sum intergovernmental grants generate considerably greater public spending by the recipient jurisdiction than would be predicted by equivalent shifts in personal income in that jurisdiction moreover such observations are inconsistent with standard median voter models of the political process we posit a model in which it is in the interest of suppliers of a collectively provided good not to generate full information to voters about outside aid the empirical results are consistent with flypaper and suggest that voters are very poorly informed about outside grants

learning to believe in simple equilibria in a complex olg economy evidence from the lab abstract we set up a laboratory experiment to empirically investigate equilibrium selection in a complex economic environment we use the overlapping generation model of grandmont 1985 which displays multiple perfect foresight equilibria including periodic and chaotic dynamics the equilibrium selection problem is not solved under learning as each outcome is predicted by at least one existing learning theory we find that subjects in the lab systematically coordinate on an equilibrium despite the complexity of the environment coordination only happens on simple equilibria in this case the steady state or the period two cycle a result which is predicted only if the subjects follow simple learning rules this suggests that relevant perfect foresight equilibria should be robust to the use of simple rules

adaptive behavior and economic theory the relationship between psychological and economic views of behavior once a subject of heavy dispute is now understood in a very similar way by practitioners of both these disciplines and of our sister social sciences in general terms we view or model an individual as a collection of decision rules rules that dictate the action to be taken in given situations and a set of preferences used to evaluate the outcomes arising from particular situation action combinations these decision rules are continuously under review and revision new decision rules are tried and tested against experience and rules that produce desirable outcomes supplant those that do not i use the term adaptive to refer to this trial anderror process through which our modes of behavior are determined if one is interested in modeling particular decisions in any very explicit way it is obviously necessary to think about rather narrow aspects of an individual s entire set of decision rules his or her personality experimental psychology has traditionally focused on the adaptive process by which decision rules are replaced by others in this tradition the influence of the subject s or as an economist says the agent s preferences this essay uses a series of examples to illustrate the use of rationality and adaptation in economic theory it is argued that these hypotheses are complementary and that stability theories based on adaptive behavior may help to narrow the class of empirically interesting equilibria in certain economic models an experiment is proposed to test this idea

sunspots in the laboratory we show that extrinsic or nonfundamental uncertainty influences markets in a controlled environment this work provides the first direct evidence of sunspot equilibria these equilibria require a common understanding of the semantics of the sunspot variable and they appear to be sensitive to the flow of information sunspots always occur in a closed book call market but they happen only occasionally in a double auction where inframarginal bids and offers are observable

frank knight on risk uncertainty and the firm a new interpretation we attempt to interpret frank knight by taking him on his own terms among our conclusions are the following 1 knight s distinction between risk and uncertainty is not solely a distinction between insurable and uninsurable risk 2 knight s explanation for the existence of firms does not reduce to a moral hazard theory except perhaps in the broadest and least interesting sense and 3 knight s treatment of the problem of the separation of ownership from control is not as obviously wrong as commentators have made it out to be

indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world experimental evidence the authors design and study an olg experimental economy where the government finances a fixed real deficit through seigniorage the economy has continua of nonstationary rational expectations equilibria and two stationary rational expectations equilibria the authors do not observe nonstationary rational expectations paths observed paths tend to converge close to or somewhat below the low inflation stationary state the adaptive learning hypothesis is consistent with the data in selecting the low inflation stationary state rational expectations equilibrium as a long run stationary equilibrium nevertheless simple adaptive learning models do not capture the market uncertainty or the biases observed in the data copyright 1993 by the econometric society

transaction cost economics in real time this paper attempts to place the theq of the boundaries of thejirm within the context of the passage of time more precisely it resurrects and places in a modem frame some of the insights of the chsical and marshallian theories of organization the modem reinterpretation of those theories centers around the capabilities view of the jirm taken together with governance costs the capabilities ofjirm and market determine the boundaries of the jirm in the short run ovw time capabilities change as firms and markets learn which implies a kind of information or knowledge cost the cost of trandewing the firm s capability to the market w vice versa these dynamic governance costs are the costs of persuading negotiating and coordinating with and teaching others they arise in the face of change notably txchnological and organizational innovation in fit they are the costs of not having the capabilities you need when you need them dynamic transaction costs provide an explanation for vertical integration that is arguably more general than those dominant in the literature in the face of uncertainty and divwgent views ofthe future common ownership of multiple stages of production is a supwior institutional arrangement for coordinating systemic change asset specrfity is neither necessary nor suffient for this to be true dynamic governance costs may also affit internal organization it may sometimes be costly in 3 terms of persuasion negotiation and teaching to create within the firm capabilities readily available on the market indeed in cases in which systemic coordination is not 4 the issue the market may turn out to be the superior institution of coordination in e 2 genwal the capabilities view of the jirm suggests that we look atfim2 and market as alternative and sometimes overlapping institutions of learning 1 transaction costs in the long rzln and the short 9 x classical and neoclassical perspectives

competence and contract in the theory of the firm abstract the coase williamson response to the question why do firms exist is based on the idea that transaction costs in viable firms are lower than they would be if production was coordinated through the market the explanatory focus of this argument is on the diminution of costs related to transactions between given individuals however this ignores the possibility of activities which are in principle non contractible including aspects of the process of production further the reliance on comparative statics in transaction cost theory downplays the distinctive kind and rate of human learning that takes place within firms this paper argues that work on organizational learning and cultural transmission reinforces a competence based explanation of the existence and relative efficiencies of firms and this approach can also provide answers to the original question posed by coase accordingly the development of a research program involving a conjoint evaluation of both competence based and transaction cost approaches is proposed

an empirical analysis of the revival of fiscal activism in the 2000s an empirical review of the three fiscal stimulus packages of the 2000s shows that they had little if any direct impact on consumption or government purchases households largely saved the transfers and tax rebates the federal government only increased purchases by a small amount state and local governments saved their stimulus grants and shifted spending away from purchases to transfers counterfactual simulations show that the stimulus induced decrease in state and local government purchases was larger than the increase in federal purchases simulations also show that a larger stimulus package with the same design as the 2009 stimulus would not have increased government purchases or consumption by a larger amount these results raise doubts about the efficacy of such packages adding weight to similar assessments reached more than thirty years ago jel e21 e23 e32 e62 h50

the revenge of homo economicus contested exchange and the revival of political economy recent developments in microeconomic theory have shown that the self interested behavior underlying neoclassical theory is artificially truncated it depicts a charmingly victorian but utopian world in which conflicts abound but a handshake is a handshake but a handshake is not always a handshake studies of principal agent analysis the economics of information radical political economy mechanism design and transactions cost economics have all focused on the difficulties involved in policing and enforcing the actual process of market exchange abandoning the victorian world of neoclassical theory will redirect economists to an older conception of their profession what once was called political economy by taking optimizing more seriously post walrasian economics has inspired a revolution in economic thought fostering both new theoretical departures and alternative conceptions of the capitalist economy we will offer our own interpretation of this literature focusing on the widely recognized fact that the terms arising from exchange are not generally enforceable at zero cost to the exchanging parties where some aspect of the good or service supplied is both valuable to the buyer and costly to provide the absence of third party enforcement of claims gives rise to endogenous enforcement strategies we refer to this relationship as a contested exchange because unlike the transactions of walrasian economics the benefit the parties derive from the transaction depends on their own capacities to enforce competing claims

learning forecasting and optimizing an experimental study rational expectations re models have two crucial dimensions i agents on average correctly forecast future prices given all available information and ii given expectations agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations experimental tests of such models typically focus on only one of these two dimensions in this paper we consider both forecasting and optimization decisions in an experimental cobweb economy we report results from four main experimental treatments 1 subjects form forecasts only 2 subjects determine quantity only solve an optimization problem 3 they do both and 4 they are paired in teams and one member is assigned the forecasting role while the other is assigned the optimization task all treatments converge to rational expectation equilibrium ree but at different speeds we observe that performance is the best in treatment 1 and the worst in treatment 3 we further find that most subjects use adaptive rules to forecast prices given a price forecast subjects are less likely to make conditionally optimal production decisions in treatment 3 where the forecast is made by themselves than in treatment 4 where the forecast is made by the other member of their team which suggests that two heads are better than one in term of the speed of finding the ree