the political economy of corporate control and labor rents in a democracy a political majority can influence both the corporate governance structure and the return to human and financial capital we argue that when financial wealth is sufficiently concentrated there is political support for high labor rents and a strong governance role for banks or large investors the model is consistent with the great reversal phenomenon in the first half of the twentieth century we offer evidence that in several financially developed countries a financially weakened middle class became concerned about labor income risk associated with free markets and supported a more corporatist financial system

competition and cooperation in divisible good auctions an experimental examination an experimental approach is used to examine the performance of three different multiunit auction designs discriminatory uniform price with fixed supply and uniform price with endogenous supply we find the actual strategies to be inconsistent with theoretically identified equilibrium strategies the discriminatory auction is found to be more susceptible to collusion than either uniform price auction and so contrary to theoretical predictions and previous experimental results it generates the lowest average revenue consistent with theoretical predictions the actual bid schedules are more elastic with reducible supply or discriminatory pricing than in the uniform price auction with fixed supply

treasury bill auctions do bidders cost of funds and winning probability matter abstract we model heterogeneous bidders bidding decisions and derive equilibrium solutions under both discriminatory and uniform price auctions under the assumptions that bidders cost of funds is uniformly distributed and the winning probability is a linear decreasing function of the quoted price we show that a revenue maximizing issuer should consider bidders cost of funds and winning probability when choosing the optimal auction mechanism

the relative economic performance of foreign subsidiaries in uk manufacturing there is now considerable evidence to show that domestically owned firms does have lower levels of labour productivity than foreign owned subsidiaries foss in uk manufacturing industry in explaining these productivity differences most studies refer to the firm specific advantages which multinationals possess allowing them to succeed in foreign environments in fact as barrell and pain 1997 point out if foreign owned assets are no more productive than those that are locally owned the rational for fdi particularly among developed countries disappears superior foreign owned assets are also important from a policy viewpoint in that there is a perception that host countries can benefit from the potential for spillover effects to domestic firms given the importance of firm specific advantages to fdi theory it is surprising that there has been little attempt to directly measure these assets in studies of relative productivity performance

endogenous market structures in international trade natura facit saltum abstract almost all of the large literature on international trade with imperfect competition assumes exogenous market structures the purpose of this paper is to develop a simple model that generates alternative market structures as nash equilibria for different parameterizations of the basic model equilibrium market structure is a function of the underlying technology familiar configurations such as a duopoly competing in exports or a single multinational producing in both markets arise as special cases small tax policy changes can produce large welfare effects as the equilibrium market structure shifts implying discontinuous jumps in prices quantities and profits

political intervention in debt contracts this paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model of an agricultural economy in which poor farmers borrow from rich farmers because output is stochastic we allow for idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks there may be default ex post we compare equilibria with and without political intervention intervention takes the form of a moratorium and is decided by voting when bad economic shocks are highly likely state contingent debt moratoria always improve ex post efficiency and may also improve ex ante efficiency moreover the threat of moratoria enhances efficiency when adverse macro shocks are unlikely state contingent moratoria always improve ex ante welfare by completing incomplete debt contracts

exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs abstract we propose a new explanation for the foreign exchange forward premium and delayed overshooting puzzles we show that both puzzles arise from a systematic distortion in investors beliefs about the interest rate process accordingly the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coefficients in the fama regression delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of misperception we document empirically the extent of this distortion using survey data for g 7 countries against the u s and find that it is strong enough to account for these irregularities

predictability in financial markets what do survey expectations tell us abstract there is widespread evidence of excess return predictability in financial markets for the foreign exchange market a number of studies have documented that the predictability of excess returns is closely related to the predictability of expectational errors of excess returns in this paper we investigate the link between the predictability of excess returns and expectational errors in a much broader set of financial markets using data on survey expectations of market participants in the stock market the foreign exchange market the bond market and money markets in various countries the results are striking first in markets where there is significant excess return predictability expectational errors of excess returns are predictable as well with the same sign and often even with similar magnitude this is the case for foreign exchange stock and bond markets second in the only market where excess returns are generally not predictable the money market expectational errors are not predictable either these findings suggest that an explanation for the predictability of excess returns must be closely linked to an explanation for the predictability of expectational errors

the multinational firm direct investment is incorporated into a simple general equilibrium model of international trade the analysis focuses on an attempt to endogenize the internalization decision it is argued that a reasonable approach assumes that arm s length contracts must be simple so that complex arrangements require internalization the model relates direct investment to the degree of underlying uncertainty and to fundamental trade determinants such as relative factor endowments the behavior of the model contrasts sharply with that of the markusen helpman model which takes internalization for granted

foreign direct investment in a two tier oligopoly coordination vertical integration and welfare we study foreign direct investment fdi by two independent investors entrants into a two tiered oligopolistic industry an fdi subsidy at a single stage of production can be sufficient to resolve the coordination problem facing investors thereby inducing entry at both stages however due to linkage offsetting fdi at both stages may yield lower domestic welfare than fdi at a single stage vertical integration not only solves the coordination problem it also eliminates double marginalization but since the integrated multinational does not sell the intermediate to local firms its entry generates no vertical linkages and can yield lower welfare than fdi by independent firms in this article we study foreign direct investment fdi via direct entry into a two tiered vertically related industry and derive the welfare effects of such fdi from the host country s perspective given the complementarity of production in vertically related industries it stands to reason that decisions regarding fdi into such industries are likely to be interdependent f or example fdi by an intermediate good supplier can enhance the fdi incentive of a final good producer by ensuring steady local supply of the intermediate helping lower its local price due to increased competition in the intermediate market or providing a higher quality version of the intermediate relative to local suppliers similarly an upstream intermediate good producer may find it more attractive to undertake fdi into a country if prior or simultaneous fdi into the downstream sector increases derived demand for the intermediate good thus fdi into one typeofproductionactivitymayinduceadditionalfdiintorelatedupstreamand ordownstream activities casual observation suggests that the aspects of fdi we model in this article are highly relevant in the real world for example the investment of japanese automakers in southeast asian countries in the 1970s and 1980s was accompanied by investment by producers of auto parts and subsystems 2 more generally fdi flows occur in virtually all interrelated sectors of the world economy including resource sectors manufacturing distribution and services in our two tiered oligopoly model two foreign investors one that produces an intermediate good and another that produces a final good decide independently whether or not to enter a host country fdi by either firm incurs a fixed cost and potentially generates technological

carry trades order flow and the forward bias puzzle we investigate the relation between foreign exchange fx order flow and the forward bias we outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time varying risk premium consistent with that bias using 10 years of data on fx order flow we find that more than half of the forward bias is accounted for by order flow with the rest being explained by expectational errors we also find that carry trading increases currency crash risk in that order flow generates negative skewness in fx returns

foreign direct investment competition and industrial development in the host country this paper analyses the impact of foreign direct investment fdi on the development of local firms we focus on two likely effects of fdi a competition effect which deters entry of domestic firms and positive market externalities which foster the development of local industry using a simple theoretical model to illustrate how these forces work we show that the number of domestic firms follows a u shaped curve where the competition effect first dominates but is gradually outweighed by positive externalities evidence for ireland tends to support this result specifically applying semi parametric regression techniques on plant level panel data for the manufacturing sector we find that while the competition effect may have initially deterred local firms entry this initial effect has been outpaced by positive externalities making the overall impact of fdi largely positive for the domestic industry

multinational corporations and trade structure first a model of horizontally and vertically integrated firms is developed these firms are then embedded in a general equilibrium model of trading countries it is shown how multinational corporations emerge as a result of differences across countries in factor compositions intersectoral intraindustry and intrafirm trade can coexist and intrafirm trade takes place in invisibles headquarter services and intermediate inputs it is shown how the various trade components depend on the structure of the world economy the model predicts trade patterns which are close to observed trade patterns the importance of multinational corporations in the conduct of foreign trade has been recognized for many years nevertheless there exists no well articulated theory that explains the conditions for their emergence and predicts under these conditions a structure of trade that comes close to observed trade patterns i have developed in helpman 1984 a theory which is designed to fill in this gap and it is the purpose of this paper to extend it in order to make it better fit reality my earlier work builds on the standard theory of monopolistic competition in differentiated products in which every firm produces a single variety the distinguishing feature of that study is the interpretation of the technology so as to allow for specialized inputs which service plants that are geographically separated from the location of the inputs employment in particular those inputs can be located in one country and service plants located in other countries management and product specific rd multinational corporations have often production facilities in several countries see for example u s tariff commission 1973 chapter iii moreover in my earlier work all intra firm trade consisted of trade in the services of the specialized inputs i e in headquarter services while empirically a large part of intra firm trade takes place in intermediate inputs see buckley and pearce 1979 hence there is a need to extend the theory in order to take account of these missing features and in order to evaluate their contribution to the explanation of trade patterns this task is undertaken in the following sections by incorporating the model of the horizontally and vertically integrated firm from helpman 1983 into the theory of

information rigidity and the expectations formation process a simple framework and new facts we propose a new approach to test the full information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from irrationality or limited information this approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null by quantifying the underlying degree of information rigidity applying this approach to u s and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with models of imperfect information furthermore the proposed approach sheds new light on policies such as inflation targeting and those leading to the great moderation affecting expectations finally we document evidence of state dependence in the expectations formation process

foreign direct investment and intellectual property rights evidence from hollywood s global distribution of movies and videos abstract traditional thinking about intellectual property rights ipr suggests that as a country strengthens its ipr standards firms will move their governance structures away from equity based institutions such as foreign direct investment fdi towards more market based relations such as licensing agreements this hypothesis is explored by examining the behavior of hollywood studios in both the feature film and video markets in 40 foreign countries the analysis reveals that the behavior of hollywood studios is more complex than this although moderate iprs are associated with a high degree of licensing both high and low standards of ipr encourage more integrated governance structures

treasury auction bids and the salomon squeeze recent press accounts claim that collusion is common practice in treasury auctions and that as a result the auction profits are excessive but this paper finds that the auction prices are on average marginally higher than the secondary market bid prices the auction profits however are systematically related to the total fraction of winning bids tendered by banks and dealers the postauction prices of the two year notes in which salomon brothers had a 94 percent holding are also examined the secondary market prices of these notes were significantly higher than the estimated competitive prices in the four week postissue period

the composition of foreign direct investment and protection of intellectual property rights evidence from transition economies while existing literature has examined the impact of intellectual property protection on the volume of foreign direct investment fdi little is known about its effect on the composition of fdi inflows the author addresses this question empirically using a unique firm level data set from eastern europe and the former soviet union she finds that weak protection deters foreign investors in technology intensive sectors that rely heavily on intellectual property rights the results also indicate that a weak intellectual property regime encourages investors to undertake projects focusing on distribution rather than local production the latter effect is present in all sectors not just those relying heavily on intellectual property protection

accounting for endogeneity when assessing strategy performance does entry mode choice affect fdi survival firms choose strategies based on their attributes and industry conditions therefore strategy choice is endogenous and self selected empirical models that do not account for this and regress performance measures on strategy choice variables are potentially misspecified and their conclusions incorrect i highlight how self selection on hard to measure or unobservable characteristics can bias strategy performance estimates and recommend an econometric technique that has been developed to account for this effect although this concern applies to a wide range of strategy questions to demonstrate its effect i empirically examine if entry mode choice acquisition versus greenfield influences foreign direct investment survival in specifications that do not account for self selection i find that greenfield entries have survival advantages compared to acquisitions this confirms previous findings however the significance of this effect disappears once i account for self selection of entry mode in the empirical estimates the results confirm that estimates from models that do not account for self selection of strategy choice can lead to incorrect or misleading conclusions

fdi policies under shared factor markets abstract we examine the consequences of foreign direct investment fdi policies in a general equilibrium setting with several oligopolistic industries by shifting labor demand across countries fdi raises the wage in the host country and lowers the wage in the source country thereby raising profits of source country firms at the expense of host country firms the extent of cross ownership of firms the relative number of firms and the relative supply of skilled labor alter the impact of fdi policy on national welfare the tension between profits and wages determines whether the optimal policy is designed to encourage fdi

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

the boundaries of multinational enterprises and the theory of international trade this paper begins with a review of empirical evidence on multinational firms conceptual underpinnings of a theory are developed relying in particular on the notion of knowledge capital as a mobile joint input into geographically separated production facilities this idea is embedded in a simple two country general equilibrium model that supports multinational production in equilibrium under conditions consistent with the empirical evidence the final section examines internalization and shows why certain properties of knowledge capital also imply a preference for transferring technologies internally within the firm rather than through arm s length markets

firm outsourcing decisions evidence from u s foreign trade zones deborah l swenson this article examines the operations of firms located in u s foreign trade subzones to study the responsiveness of outsourcing to international cost changes i find that firms reduce their reliance on foreign inputs when dollar depreciation increases the relative price of imported inputs the effect is pervasive across industries and is economically significant in addition firms that rely more heavily on imported intermediate inputs reduce their overall shipments when dollar depreciation elevates their imported input costs however the magnitude of the shipments effect is economically small suggesting that firms respond to exchange rate movements by adjusting their operations on other dimensions jel f23 f1 i introduction during the nafta debates u s industry argued that it would be placed at a competitive disadvantage if it failed to gain access to mexican parts that benefited from tariff reductions in the absence of such benefits it was argued that u s firms might even move their production off shore at the same time u s trade unions expressed great concern that jobs and high levels of economic activity would be lost if nafta caused a rise in the outsourcing of intermediate inputs although these countervailing concerns have attracted much attention very little is known about the responsiveness of firm outsourcing to relative price changes or about its secondary effects on firm shipments since outsourcing decisions are made at the firm level and appropriate data is rarely available to researchers this article seeks to address this void by analyzing a data set that provides information on these purchasing and shipment decisions recent aggregate evidence indicates that firms are purchasing an increasing portion of their intermediate inputs from their foreign affiliates or from unrelated parties located abroad 1 it is argued that advances in transportation and communications have facilitated the trend toward the dispersion of production activities while the aggregate trends are striking little research has focused on individual firm decisions one exception is brainard and riker s 1997 examination of multinational firms employment choices as they respond to international wage changes brainard and riker conclude that the degree of firm substitution among a firm s numerous foreign affiliates is much higher than that between parent firms and their foreign affiliates which is relatively small this labor market evidence suggests that foreign affiliate labor is not easily substituted for home labor and that the two may even be complements 2 in contrast a higher degree of substitutability is implied by work including feenstra a nd hanson 1996 and irwin 1996 for the united states or campa and goldberg 1997 for the united states united kingdom japan and canada which documents that the usage of imported intermediate inputs has increased in almost all cases since the 1970s 3 this article studies the issue of input sourcing flexibility and its consequences by examining individual firm decisions the analysis is based on the activities of a set of firms located in u s foreign trade subzones i focus on this subset of firms since the u s foreign trade subzones program provides a unique opportunity to examine firm level decisions regarding inputs and shipments the reporting requirements of the foreign trade zones program enable us to view aspects of firm sourcing decisions that are usually unobservable i use two estimation methods to measure the general substitutability of inputs and outsourcing flexibility first i develop a constant elasticity of substitution ces model of input demand i then use nonlinear least squares techniques to estimate the underlying demand parameters implied by the structural equations i then perform a tobit analysis of firm sourcing decisions the benefit of the second form of analysis is that it allows me to study additional determinants of outsourcing and it does not require strong assumptions about the functional form of the production function

intellectual property rights and foreign direct investment abstract this paper develops a product cycle model with endogenous innovation imitation and foreign direct investment fdi we use this model to determine how stronger intellectual property rights ipr protection in the south affects innovation imitation and fdi we find that stronger ipr protection keeps multinationals safer from imitation but no more so than northern firms instead the increased difficulty of imitation generates resource wasting and imitation disincentive effects that reduce both fdi and innovation the greater resources absorbed in imitation crowd out fdi reduced fdi then transmits resource scarcity in the south back to the north and consequently contracts innovation

strategic trade policy when firms can invest abroad when are tariffs and quotas equivalent abstract this paper investigates the equivalence of tariffs and quotas when the market in question is imperfectly competitive and open to direct foreign investment the absence of a foreign supply response under a quota so critical to the analysis of the differential impact of tariffs and quotas under imperfect competition is called into question by the potential occurence of direct foreign investment the paper proves the equivalence of optimal tariffs and quotas when the markets are oligopolistic and open to direct foreign investment

do foreign owners favour short term profit evidence from germany comparing domestic and foreign owned firms in germany this paper finds that foreign owned firms are more likely to focus on short term profit this influence is particularly strong if the local managers of the german subsidiary are not sent from the foreign parent company moreover the physical distance between the foreign parent company and its german subsidiary increases the probability of focusing on short term profit these findings conform to the hypothesis that foreign owners facing an information disadvantage concerning the local conditions of their subsidiaries are more likely to favor short term profit however we do not identify differences in short termism between investors from anglo saxon and other foreign countries rather results point in the direction of more general features of international business investment

licensing versus direct investment a model of internalization by the multinational enterprise a firm must decide whether to serve a foreign market by exporting building a foreign branch plant or licensing the production to an existing foreign producer the existence of reputations implies that any licensing agreement must provide a licensee with the incentive to maintain the reputation this creates a motive for the firm to internalize transactions by building a branch plant i e by becoming a multinational the model reflects a more general notion that the inability of the firm to control a licensee s agent s actions can provide incentives for multinational activity the paper explores the determinants of the firm s mode of operation as well as the consequences of certain government policies

the effect of foreign acquisition on employment and wages evidence from finnish establishments employee characteristics by skill groups makes it possible to disentangle the effect of foreign ownership on wages from its effects on the quality of the workforce furthermore this information allows us to examine the heterogeneity of the effect of foreign acquisition on wages and employment third the long timespan of our data thirteen years enables us to consider the effects of foreign acquisition in the long run hiring and firing costs may delay the effects of foreign acquisition by looking at the effects of acquisition in several periods after it has taken place these delays can be taken into account we believe finland to be an interesting case study for the effects of foreign ownership it is a typical example of a small open economy where foreign investment plays an important role furthermore our data cover the years 1988 2001 when the share of foreign direct investments rose rapidly in finland this increase is depicted in figure 1 and it partly reflects the worldwide trend in foreign direct investment but the years 1988 2001 were also characterized by two phenomena which undoubtedly led to the increase in the share of foreign owned firms first finland experienced a very severe recession in the early 1990s and the recovery from this crisis was associated with a rapid restructuring of the economy and a growth of new industries in particular the export oriented high tech sector 2 second finland joined the european union in 1995 which naturally removed a considerable number of barriers to foreign investment in the finnish economy the results derived by both matching and regression methods indicate that foreign acquisition has a positive effect on wages in all skill groups this wage increase is not immediate but occurs within one to three years after the acquisition the magnitude of this effect increases with the level of schooling of the workers the results indicate that there is a small decrease in the share of highly educated workers after foreign acquisition the decrease in the share of highly educated workers after acquisition also seems to hold for domestic acquisitions the paper is organized as follows the next section briefly describes the theoretical background for the analysis and reviews some previous empirical findings the third section describes the statistical framework and the fourth section presents the data sets the results are provided in the fifth section the last section concludes the paper

who determines mexican trade policy using a political economy approach the authors analyze the pattern of protection in mexico s manufacturing sector during the period of trade policy reforms 1985 89 when mexico experienced significant trade liberalization and an important inflow of foreign direct investment they take into account the potential effect of foreign direct investment on endogenous tariff formation it turns out that the data support this analytic approach in which the formulation of trade policy reflects political support and in which the presence of foreign direct investment in the sector strongly affects the pattern of tariff protection before and after reform in mexican manufacturing especially sectors with heavy foreign direct investment received greater protection in import competing sectors although the move toward greater openness was associated with a reduction in the influence of industrial and foreign investor lobbying

the impact of auction choice on revenue in treasury bill auctions an empirical evaluation abstract i evaluate whether uniform price or discriminatory auctions are revenue superior for selling treasury bills to this end i apply two structural econometric models hortacsu and mcadams 2010 and fevrier et al 2002 to a dataset on polish zero coupon bonds my secondary aim is to analyze mutual inconsistencies in prediction from these models i find that both agree on the revenue superiority of discriminatory auctions by between 0 01 and 1 5 the models predictions are contradictory in only 7 of auctions the large scale agreement of two vastly different models gives confidence that the conclusions on polish data are robust to varying many of the underlying economic and econometric assumptions and not likely just a modeling artifact

fdi spillovers over time in an emerging market the roles of entry tenure and barriers to imitation in this study we examine how foreign direct investment fdi spillovers to domestic firms in an emerging market occur over time from the organizational learning perspective we propose that as entry tenure of foreign firms in an industry increases domestic firms can learn from the foreign firms over time and improve their productivity we further build upon the competitor imitation argument to propose that this effect will be stronger when barriers to imitation faced by the domestic firms are lower based upon a comprehensive panel dataset on manufacturing firms in china in 1998 2007 our findings strongly support these arguments we find that entry tenure of foreign firms in an industry has a positive relationship with the productivity of individual domestic firms in the same industry albeit at a diminishing rate we also find that this positive relationship is stronger when the foreign firms have lower export intensity lower intangible asset intensity and have followed a more rhythmic i e less irregular entry pattern situations characterizing lower barriers to imitation

multinationals multi plant economies and the gains from trade a general equilibrium model of a multinational enterprise based on economies of multi plant operation is developed these economies are modelled as arising from the existence of a joint input whose productivity in each production facility is independent of the number of facilities maintained by a firm the multinational thus offers the world increased technical efficiency by eliminating the duplication of the joint input that would occur with independent national firms since this technical efficiency may come at the expense of increased market power the full determinants of home country host country and world welfare are considered

order flow and the monetary model of exchange rates evidence from a novel data set we propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the evans lyons microstructure approach we estimate a model augmented with order flow variables using a unique data set almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar euro and dollar yen the augmented macroeconomic or hybrid model exhibits greater in sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis a vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications

strategic trade policy and welfare foreign equity ownership is shown empirically to weaken significantly and occasionally reverse common strategic trade policy results existing levels of u s cross ownership for example reduce the average optimal export subsidy by 47 relative to the brander and spencer journal of international economics 1985 18 83 100 value in industries with particularly high cross ownership and relatively small imputed labor rents optimal subsidies fall to less than one seventh of their former level previous studies which overlook high rates of cross ownership overstate the effectiveness of strategic policies most sharply in sectors with above average expected profitability scope for strategic investments and barriers to rent dissipation

mechanism choice and strategic bidding in divisible good auctions an empirical analysis of the turkish treasury auction market we propose an estimation method to bound bidders marginal valuations in discriminatory auctions using individual bid level data and apply the method to data from the turkish treasury auction market using estimated bounds on marginal values we compute an upper bound on the inefficiency of realized allocations as well as bounds on how much additional revenue could have been realized in a counterfactual uniform price or vickrey auction we conclude that switching from a discriminatory auction to a uniform price or vickrey auction would not significantly increase revenue moreover such a switch would increase bidder expected surplus by at most 0 02 percent

a new database on the structure and development of the financial sector this article introduces a new database of indicators of financial structure and financial development across countries and over time the database is unique in that it combines a wide variety of indicators that measure the size activity and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets it improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial institutions and constructing measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets this article introduces a new database the first to provide comprehensive measures of the development structure and performance of the financial sector this database is the first to define and construct indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial intermediaries such as insurance companies pension funds and non deposit money banks it is also the first to include indicators of the size of primary equity markets and primary and secondary bond markets in constructing the database authors carefully deflate measures and match stock and flow variables

internalization an event study test abstract the internalization theory of multinational firms proposes that direct international investment occurs when a firm has information related intangible assets with public good properties we find that firms with characteristics suggesting the presence of information based assets experience a significantly positive stock price reaction upon announcing a foreign acquisition on the other hand firms apparently lacking such assets experience at best zero abnormal returns upon announcing overseas acquisitions

divisible good auctions with asymmetric information an experimental examination an experimental approach is used to compare bidding behavior and auction performance in uniform price and discriminatory auctions when there is incomplete information concerning the common value of the auctioned good in a symmetric information environment the different auction formats provide the same average revenue however when information is asymmetric the discriminatory auction results in higher average revenue than the uniform price auction the volatility of revenue is higher in the uniform price auctions in all treatments the results therefore provide support for the use of the discriminatory format subject characteristics and measures of experience in recent auctions are found to be useful in explaining bidding behavior

sovereign debt auctions uniform or discriminatory abstract many financial assets especially government bonds are issued by an auction an important feature of the design is the auction pricing mechanism uniform versus discriminatory theoretical papers do not provide a definite answer regarding the dominance of one type of auction over the other we investigate the revealed preferences of the issuers by surveying the sovereign issuers that conduct auctions we find that the majority of the issuers countries in our sample use a discriminatory auction mechanism for issuing government debt we use a multinomial logit procedure and discriminatory analysis to investigate the mechanism choice it was interesting to find that market oriented economies and those that practice common law tend to use a uniform method while economies who are less market oriented and practice civil law tend to use discriminatory price auctions

patterns in exchange rate forecasts for twenty five currencies the properties of exchange rate forecasts are investigated with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies over the entire sample expectations appear to be biased this result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures there appear to be statistically significant differences in the degree of bias in subgroupings of the data the bias is lower for the high inflation countries the bias is greater for the major currencies studied in earlier papers and the bias is also greater for the ems currencies copyright 1994 by ohio state university press

firm size and foreign operations of multinationals the standard literature on multinationals emphasizes the importance of firm size in explaining foreign direct investment a typical statement for example by caves is that t he relation between direct investment and firm size with other factors held constant has been established statistically 1974 p 280 however descriptions of the role of firm size are often ambiguous as pointed out by hufbauer 1975 and swedenborg 1979 such descriptions do not make a clear distinction between the probability or likelihood that a firm would be a foreign investor and the extent of such investment or as expressed by swedenborg a firm s propensity to operate abroad the share of its production carried on outside its home country a study by horst 1972 which has become the basis for most statements about the importance of firm size dealt only with the probability that a firm would be a foreign investor or more specifically the probability that it would meet the criteria for being considered a multinational firm according to the definition used in the harvard studies including that of having a certain number of overseas operations cf vernon 197 1

reputational comparative advantage and multinational enterprise 1 introduction when cultivating a new export market or attempting to expand its share of an existing market an exporter is likely to find that it has been preceded by its reputation minus a readily identifiable brand name quality reputation may solely reflect the country of origin for example when consumers are presented with a large amount of complex product information they may use the country of origin as a heuristic in forming product impressions without considering other product attributes 1 in this article i show that this heuristic decision making process can affect a firm s quality decision and can therefore become self fulfilling hence any bias that consumers have may be well founded however it is only correct because firms respond rationally to it colombia s garment industry provides an interesting example of a self fulfilling unfavorable quality reputation in international trade as described by morawetz 1981 a single colombian garment firm took a contract for 50 000 men s suits that was beyond its capability the poor quality result so tarnished the american importer s name that other high quality importers become wary of colombian sewn garments with the payoff to high quality production reduced colombian garment firms then concentrated on low quality markets and the newly found unfavorable reputation was justified in the model constructed here consumers see only a noisy signal of the product s quality at the time of purchase therefore their posterior beliefs are based on this noisy signal and the country of origin reputations as will be made clear higher quality firms benefit more from an increase in their country s reputation so that a better reputation generates an increase in the percentage of high quality firms in this way the reputation becomes self fulfilling and ex ante identical countries can be correctly perceived as differing in their percentage of high quality producers i next introduce an economy with two sectors one sector produces more complex goods where high quality is not easily verified and is more essential to the product s performance these may be technology intensive products or they may consist of the design and marketing of the goods produced in the other sector in particular high quality production costs and the consumer s value for high quality goods is greater in this sector i show that this sector becomes more profitable as the country of origin reputation increases hence if one country s equilibrium reputation is low and the other country s equilibrium reputation is high then the pattern of specialization and international trade can be determined solely by reputational comparative advantage 2 finally i show that reputational comparative advantage can overshadow a small technological comparative disadvantage in determining the pattern of international trade given this pattern of trade and specialization based on reputational comparative advantage a high reputation firm may expend resources to establish a multinational enterprise mne in the low reputation country for example many mne products require the differing specializations of both the high and low reputation countries although differing in motivation this result accords well with more traditional models of vertical mne 3 however this impetus for mne as well as its more traditional counterparts does not explain why the mne would choose foreign direct investment fdi over a less costly licensing arrangement 4 the quality uncertainty in this model along with the difference in equilibrium reputations allows us to address this question in particular appropriable reputational rents are generated by fdi when the high reputation parent firm procures and internalizes production with a low reputation host firm this fdi breaks the low reputation equilibrium of the host firm and generates reputational rents

fixed versus flexible lessons from ems order flow abstract we extend the literature on regime dependent volatility in two ways first our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation second we test implications of our model using europe s recent shift to rigidly fixed rates ems to emu in the model shocks to order flow induce more volatility under flexible rates because the elasticity of speculative demand is endogenously low leading to pronounced portfolio balance effects new data on ff dm transactions show that order flow had persistent effects on the exchange rate before emu parities were announced after announcement the ff dm rate was decoupled from order flow as the model predicts

trade liberalization in a multinational dominated industry abstract existing theoretical models in the trade industrial organization literature assume almost exclusively that firms are national enterprises so that there is no international coordination by multinational firms we develop a model in which multinationals compete among themselves but coordinate production pricing and sales decisions across multiple plants and markets free entry and exit is assumed and cases in which the multinationals can and cannot segment markets are considered the model is simulated using data from the north american auto industry results are compared with a counter factual model calibrated to the same data which assumes national ownership of firms

preferential trade agreements and tax competition for foreign direct investment abstract this paper examines how free trade agreements and customs unions affect the location of foreign direct investment fdi and social welfare taking into account that governments may adjust taxes and external tariffs to compete for fdi conditions are identified under which a free trade agreement leads to fdi and under which this improves welfare the welfare effect is shown to depend on the relative size of efficiency gains in production and government revenue losses due to tax competition a free trade agreement may fail to induce welfare improving fdi creating a role for a customs union

strategic investments and the development of multinationals a model of multinational behavior is presented in which either the existence or absence of multinationals can be a nash equilibrium outcome the key determinant is the relationship between plant scale economies a force for geographic centralization and multiplant economies plus transport costs leading to multinationality the model predicts that multinational enterprise production arises when firm specific and transportation costs are large relative to plant scale economies the latter are both a technological and a strategic variable in the entry decision copyright 1987 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

optimal sticky prices under rational inattention this paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to subject to a constraint on information flow when idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions when we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks but only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects we use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms environment jel e 3 e5 d8

contracts intellectual property rights and multinational investment in developing countries abstract the policy debate between multinational firms favoring strong contract law and host country governments who often oppose such protection motivates the paper local agents managers learn the multinational s technology and can defect to start a rival firm contract enforcement including binding the multinational itself makes the multinational better off outcomes for the host country are more complex depending on mode switches induced by enforcement if enforcement induces the multinational to switch from exporting to local production welfare improves if local production was occurring anyway enforcement may result in the loss of rents to local agents and lower welfare

international investment location decisions abstract in international location tournaments governments compete for foreign investment with tax and other short run incentives such tournaments can be won if agglomeration economies are sufficiently powerful to overcome investors desire to spread investments as a hedge against risk we focus on manufacturing investments by u s multinationals in the 1980s our econometric results suggest that agglomeration economies are indeed the dominant influence on investor calculations paradoxically short run incentives have limited apparent impact on location choice we conclude that high cost tournament play is unnecessary for countries with good infrastructure development specialized input suppliers and an expanding domestic market

expectation errors in the foreign exchange market abstract a unified theoretical model is developed showing that forecasting errors can be explained by both informational rigidities and portfolio shifts this is applied to the brl usd exchange rate forecasting errors using a unique data set of daily consensus forecasts along with order flow derived from the fx futures market the results strongly support the theory

the economics of franchise contracts as an organizational arrangement the franchise contract lies between anonymous price mediated exchange and centralized intrafirm employment in contrast to conventional market exchange franchise contracts typically impose on franchisees retail quality standards common hours of business price controls and nonlinear payment schedules for example fixed initial royalty fees plus a percentage of gross retail revenues while franchisors typically provide national advertising and training programs monitor and inspect the franchisees performance with varying intensity across industries and hold the residual power to terminate the franchise agreement observations of actual terminations indicate that franchisors sometimes exclude this power franchisors sometimes face persistent queues of potential franchisees in contrast to simple employment contracts franchise agreements provide for sharing of profits through royalties on revenue or output and considerable freedom for independent decisions by local franchisees 1 why do these franchise contracts exist