a seniority arrangement for sovereign debt a sovereign s inability to commit to a course of action regarding future borrowing and default behavior makes long term debt costly the problem of debt dilution one mechanism to mitigate this problem is the inclusion of a seniority clause in debt contracts in the event of default creditors are to be paid off in the order in which they lent the absolute priority or first in time rule in this paper we propose a modification of the absolute priority rule suited to sovereign debts contracts and analyze its positive and normative implications within a quantitatively realistic model of sovereign debt and default jel e32 e44 f34 g15 h63 o16 o19

global factors and emerging market spreads this paper shows that a large fraction of the variability of emerging market bond spreads is explained by the evolution of global factors such as risk appetite as reflected in the spread of high yield corporate bonds in developed markets global liquidity measured by the international interest rates and contagion from systemic events like the russian default this link has remained relatively stable over the history of the emerging market class is robust to the inclusion of country specific factors and helps provide accurate long run predictions overall the results highlight the critical role played by exogenous factors in the evolution of the borrowing cost faced by emerging economies

interrupted work careers depreciation and restoration of human capital the quantitative effects and even the existence of a human capital depreciation phenomenon have been a subject of controversy in the recent literature prior work however was largely cross sectional and the longitudinal dimension if any was retrospective using longitudinal panel data on married women in nls we have now established that real wages at reentry are indeed lower than at the point of labor force withdrawal and the decline in wages is greater the longer the interruption another striking finding is a relatively rapid growth in wages after the return to work this rapid growth appears to reflect the restoration or repair of previously eroded human capital the phenomenon of depreciation and restoration is also visible in data for immigrants to the united states however while immigrants eventually catch up with and often surpass natives returnees from the nonmarket do not fully restore their earnings potential

discrimination in the payment of full time wage premiums this study investigates how many hours must be worked per week in order for workers in different race and gender groups to receive a high hours full time wage premium an analysis of 1989 current population survey data shows that across occupations both white and black men received a full time wage premium for working at least 33 hours per week whereas white women had to work at least 37 hours and black women at least 39 hours to receive the premium controlling for occupation changes the threshold for black women to 33 hours but does not change the results for the other groups the authors find that the observed differences account for at most two percentage points of the wage differentials across race and gender

the sources of sovereign risk a calibration based on levy stochastic processes abstract governments choose to issue risky or riskless debt depending on the nature of the stochastic process of output we use brownian motion and poisson shocks a modeling method in the literature on corporate default known as levy processes to approximate a decomposition of the output process into a smooth and a jump component using an eaton and gersovitz 1981 model of debt repudiation we show that the brownian part explains the counter cyclical behavior of the current account and the poisson part explains the risk of default thus enabling our model to account for key stylized facts regarding sovereign risk

sovereign debt as a contingent claim a quantitative approach abstract we construct a dynamic equilibrium model with contingent service and adverse selection to quantitatively study sovereign debt in the model benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates for a wide set of parameters the only equilibrium is one in which the sovereign defaults in all states additional output losses however sustain equilibria that resemble the data we show that due to the adverse selection problem some countries choose to delay default to reduce loss of reputation moreover although equilibria with no default imply greater welfare levels they are not sustainable in highly indebted and volatile countries

news sovereign debt maturity and default risk abstract leading into a debt crisis interest rate spreads on sovereign debt rise before the economy experiences a decline in productivity suggesting that news about future economic developments may play an important role in these episodes an empirical var estimation shows that a news shock has a larger contemporaneous impact on sovereign credit spreads than a comparable shock to labor productivity a quantitative model of news and sovereign debt default with endogenous maturity choice generates impulse responses and a variance decomposition similar to the empirical var estimates the dynamics of the economy after a bad news shock share some features of a productivity shock and some features of sudden stop events however unlike during sudden stop episodes long term debt does not shield the country from bad news shocks and it may even exacerbate default risk finally an increase in the precision of news allows the government to improve its debt maturity management especially during periods of high stress in credit markets and thus face lower yield spreads while increasing the amount of debt

the case for gdp indexed bonds gds indexed bonds this paper seeks to revive the case for countries to insure against economic growth slowdowns by issuing bonds indexed to the rate of growth of gdp we show that gdp indexed bonds could provide substantial benefits in reducing the likelihood of default crises and allowing countries to avoid pro cyclical fiscal policies we simulate the effects of gdp indexed bonds under different assumptions about fiscal policy reaction functions and their output effects and find that they could substantially reduce the likelihood of debt gdp paths becoming explosive the insurance premium would likely be small because cross country comovement of gdp growth rates is low and cross country gdp growth risk is thus largely diversifiable for an investor holding a portfolio of gdp indexed bonds potential obstacles to the emergence of a market for these bonds include the verifiability of gdp data the trade off between insurance and moral hazard and the need for liquidity theory and past experience suggest that financial innovation often requires official intervention and its timing and form are difficult to predict we discuss institutional fixes and suggest an approach for attempting to start up a market eduardo borensztein and paolo mauro

an evaluation of contingent immunization abstract this paper tests the effectiveness of contingent immunization a stop loss strategy that allows portfolio managers to take advantage of their ability to forecast interest rate movements as long as their forecasts are successful but switches to a pure immunization strategy should the stop loss limit be encountered this study uses actual daily transactions in the spanish treasury market covering the period 1993 2003 and uses performance measures that accounts for skewness and kurtosis as well as mean variance the main result of this paper is that contingent immunization provides excellent performance despite its simplicity

impact of first birth career interruption on earnings evidence from administrative data abstractthis article makes use of unique administrative data to expand the understanding of the role women s intermittency decisions play in the determination of her wages we demonstrate that treating intermittency as exogenous significantly overstates its impact the intermittency penalty also increases in the education level of the woman the penalty for women with a high school degree with an average amount of intermittency during 6 years after giving birth to her first child is roughly half the penalty for college graduates we also demonstrate the value of making use of an index to capture multiple dimension of the intermittency experience and illustrate the importance of firm dynamics in the determination of a woman s wage

equity valuation under bull and bear market regimes in south east asia firms a switching regression approach a switching regression approach is used to analyse the market equity value of firms in the three south east asia countries with a comparison to japan two regimes are used to optimally sort the firms in a given country based on a switching function using profit rate net income to book equity as its variable the regimes are identified as a bear security market or a bull security market depending on the value of the profit rate two financial ratios are used in the regime regressions it was found that the optimum scaled switch point separating the bulls from the bears for the countries was a positive profit rate ranging between 6 and 24 the notion that a zero or negative profit rate identifies a bear market is not supported in general the results across countries and for the long term debt ratio were quite consistent the post asian financial crisis of 1997 had a depressing effect on firm market equity values regardless of the market type and the country the bulls and the bears are not cousins whe

non defaultable debt and sovereign risk abstract we quantify gains from introducing limited financing through non defaultable debt into a model of equilibrium sovereign risk for an initial sovereign spread of 4 2 introducing the possibility of issuing non defaultable debt for up to 10 of aggregate income reduces immediately the spread to 1 5 and implies a welfare gain equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of 0 8 nevertheless the spread reduction achieved by the introduction of non defaultable debt is short lived our findings shed light on different aspects of proposals to introduce common euro area sovereign bonds that could be virtually non defaultable

discretionary monetary and fiscal policy with endogenous sovereign risk abstract how does the presence of sovereign risk affect the conduct of public policy to answer this question this paper studies optimal monetary and fiscal policy without commitment for a model economy with nominal public debt and strategic sovereign default compared to an economy without the possibility of default economies with sovereign risk experience more volatile interest rates which impedes the government s ability to smooth tax rates across states risk of default also limits public debt accumulation reducing the government s incentive to use surprise inflation on average when calibrated to the united states the model predicts that a counterfactual increase in the average annual default probability from 0 to 1 lowers average inflation by 33 raises the standard deviation of inflation by 18 and increases the standard deviation of the labor income tax by 73 the transmission of exogenous shocks to real aggregate quantities is however almost unaffected by the possibility of default for example the presence of sovereign risk would increase the standard deviation of log real gdp by less than 1 in the experiment above similarly the welfare consequences of sovereign risk are found to be of negligible size as well

debt dilution and sovereign default risk we measure the effects of debt dilution on sovereign default risk and study debt covenants that could mitigate these effects we calibrate a baseline model with endogenous debt duration and default risk in which debt can be diluted using data from spain we find that debt dilution accounts for 78 percent of the default risk in the baseline economy and that eliminating dilution increases the optimal duration of sovereign debt by almost 2 years eliminating dilution also increases consumption volatility but still produces welfare gains the debt covenants we study could help enforcing fiscal rules

consumer bankruptcy a fresh start consumer bankruptcy provides partial insurance against bad luck but by driving up interest rates makes life cycle smoothing more difficult we argue that to assess this trade off one needs a quantitative model of consumer bankruptcy with three key features life cycle component idiosyncratic earnings uncertainty and expense uncertainty exogenous negative shocks to household balance sheets we find that transitory and persistent earnings shocks have very different implications for evaluating bankruptcy rules more persistent shocks make the bankruptcy option more desirable larger transitory shocks have the opposite effect our findings suggest the current us bankruptcy system may be desirable for reasonable parameter values jel d14 d91 k35

optimal timing of decisions a general theory based on continuation values abstract by extending a methodology dating back to jovanovic 1982 we develop a comprehensive theory of optimal timing of decisions based on continuation value functions and operators that act on them rewards can be bounded or unbounded one advantage of this approach over standard bellman methods is that continuation value functions are smoother than value functions another is that for a range of problems the continuation value function exists in a lower dimensional space than the value function we exploit these advantages to obtain a range of new results on optimality optimal behavior and efficient computation

welfare implications of the bankruptcy reform act of 1999 abstract in recent years personal bankruptcy has become an important issue to consumers creditors and legislators alike over 40 billion dollars of unsecured debt were discharged in 1998 by 1 44 million households these losses have led legislators to propose a variety of changes in bankruptcy law the most important and recent of which is the bankruptcy reform act of 1999 ba99 i develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of personal bankruptcy to investigate the trade off between the consumption smoothing role of bankruptcy and the interest rate and deadweight costs it imposes i find that stringent means tests would reduce filing rates only slightly and would have only modest welfare consequences on the other hand the elimination of bankruptcy altogether is found to have substantial benefits this result is robust to income shock persistence and to stringency in the application of means tests

a contraction for sovereign debt models abstract using a dual representation we show that the markov equilibria of the one period bond eaton and gersovitz 1981 incomplete markets sovereign debt model can be represented as a fixed point of a contraction mapping providing a new proof of the uniqueness and existence of equilibrium in the benchmark sovereign debt model the arguments can be extended to incorporate re entry probabilities after default when the shock process is iid our representation of the equilibrium bears many similarities to an optimal contracting problem we use this to argue that commitment to budget rules has no value to a benevolent government we show how the introduction of long term bonds breaks the link to the constrained planning problem

in and out of the labour market long term income consequences of child related interruptions to women s paid work why do canadian mothers have lower incomes than women who have never had children microdata from the 1995 gss allow examination of two hypotheses 1 mothers have spent more time out of the labour force thus acquiring less human capital 2 higher levels of unpaid work lead to fatigue and or scheduling difficulties measuring work history does little to account for the family gap the estimated child penalty is reduced by allowing for human capital depreciation and controlling for unpaid work hours but the two hypotheses together cannot entirely explain the gap jel classification j0 j3 entrees et sorties marche du travail et consequences a long terme des interruptions dans l experience sur le marche du travail a cause des enfants ce memoire se demande pourquoi les femmes canadiennes qui ont eu des enfants ont des revenus plus bas que ceux des femmes qui n en ont pas eus les microdonnees de l enquete sociale generale de 1995 de statistiques canada permettent d examiner deux hypotheses 1 les meres ont passe plus de temps en dehors de la main d oeuvre active et donc ont accumule moins de capital humain ou 2 des niveaux plus eleves de travail non remunere peuvent entrainer fatigue ou difficultes d organisation du temps des efforts pour construire une meilleure image de l experience de travail des femmes ne permettent pas d expliquer cet ecart familial meme si la possibilite qu il y ait depreciation du capital humain reduit la penalisation attachee au fait d avoir un enfant en particulier si l interruption dans l experience sur le marche du travail est suivie d un changement d emploi le nombre hebdomadaire d heures de travail non paye est relie negativement aux revenus et si l on normalise pour tenir compte des heures de travail non paye cela reduit la penalisation attachee au fait d avoir un enfant cependant les deux hypotheses combinees ne suffisent pas pour expliquer l ecart

the family gap and family friendly policies the case of norway norway has among the most generous family policies in the world the most recent is the cash for care reform which was implemented in 1998 we answer two main questions in this article what is the level of the family gap in such a generous regime and how has it developed as a consequence of the latest reform results suggest that the family gap is rather modest in norway compared to many other countries and we find no evidence of a worsening of the gap in recent years a positive interpretation of these results is that the norwegian labour market is fairly flexible in the sense that it seems to be able to absorb even more generous family policies

the finnish great depression from russia with love during the period 1991 93 finland experienced the deepest economic downturn in an industrialized country since the 1930s we argue that the collapse of the finnish trade with the soviet union in and of itself resulted in a large contraction of the economy and a costly restructuring of the manufacturing sector similar to the transition suffered by countries in eastern europe finland and these transition countries show almost identical u shaped dynamics of output in the early 1990s yet as a western democracy with fully developed capital markets and well functioning legal and political institutions finland faced none of the large institutional adjustments experienced in the formerly centrally planned economies thus by studying the finnish experience we can isolate the adjustment costs due solely to the collapse of trade from the other burdens of adjustment borne by transition economies we develop and calibrate a multisector dynamic general equilibrium model of the finnish economy and show that the collapse of soviet finnish trade can indeed go a long way in explaining finland s great depression

sovereign default resolution through maturity extension abstract sovereign default episodes are resolved by restructuring the debt through renegotiations and implemented by bond swaps and resumption of debt service payments this process provides debt relief for the sovereign and partially compensates lenders for their losses in the data the bulk of such debt relief is implemented by extending the maturity of the debt rather than changing its face value we augment a standard maturity choice model with a post default renegotiation phase and study whether it can replicate this observed maturity extension the model is successful in generating this and other key features of renegotiations and maturity choice but critically only when we assume that sovereigns continue to be excluded temporarily from financial markets after renegotiation consistent with the observation that countries do not immediately resume borrowing in contrast a version of the model where market access is restored promptly features a counterfactual reduction in maturity a puzzle for the standard model

measuring the external benefits of homeownership abstract the subsidization of homeownership is justified on efficiency grounds only to the extent that it provides benefits to people other than the homeowner we use the clustered neighborhoods subsample in the american housing survey to measure that benefit in the form of higher housing prices in neighborhoods with higher ownership rates and lower vacancies we attempt to account for unobservable neighborhood and house attributes that may be correlated with occupancy and ownership through instrumental variables switching regressions and panel methods estimates indicate that a housing transition from renting to owning creates approximately 1300 in measured benefits

labor market distortions under sovereign debt default crises risk of sovereign debt default has frequently affected emerging market and developed economies such financial crisis are often accompanied with severe declines of employment that are hard to justify using a standard dynamic stochastic model in this paper i document that a labor wedge deteriorates substantially around swift reversals of current accounts or default episodes i propose and evaluate two different explanations for these movements by linking the wedges to changes in labor taxes and in the cost of working capital with these two features included a dynamic model of equilibrium default is able to replicate the behavior of the labor wedge observed in the data around financial crisis in the model higher interest rates are propagated into larger costs of hiring labor through the presence of working capital as an economy is hit with a stream of bad productivity shocks the incentives to default become stronger thus increasing the cost of debt this reduces firm demand for labor and generates a labor wedge a similar effect is obtained with a counter cyclical tax rate policy the model is used to shed light on the recent events of the euro area debt crisis and in particular of the greek default event

performance pricing in bank debt contracts abstract performance pricing links bank debt interest rate spreads to a borrower s performance via two options interest decreasing performance pricing reduces spreads if credit quality improves it is more common when prepayment is more likely or costly and when adverse selection costs are higher and is less common when multiple performance measures better predict credit quality interest increasing performance pricing increases spreads if credit quality deteriorates it is more common when lenders reduce interest rates to add this provision when downgrades are more likely and when moral hazard costs are higher we find lower spreads for contracts with interest increasing performance pricing

efficient sovereign default in this article i show that the key aspects of sovereign debt crises can be rationalized as part of the efficient risk sharing arrangement between a sovereign borrower and foreign lenders in a production economy with informational and commitment frictions the constrained efficient allocation involves ex post inefficient outcomes that resemble sovereign default episodes in the data and can be implemented with non contingent defaultable bonds and active maturity management defaults and periods of temporary exclusion from international credit markets happen along the equilibrium path and are essential to supporting the efficient allocation furthermore during debt crises the maturity composition of debt shifts towards short term debt and the term premium inverts as in the data

dissecting the cycle a methodological investigation following burns and mitchell we define the cycle as a pattern in the level of aggregate economic activity an algorithm to locate turning points is developed as is a new measure of pro cyclicality a link between turning points and the moments of the series is established thereby providing the statistical foundation that burns and mitchell s work lacked using these tools we are able to dissect cycles in terms of the contributions made by trend growth volatility serial correlation and non linear effects we dissect several models and find little evidence that certain non linear effects are important to the nature of business cycles

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules welfare maximizing monetary and fiscal policy rules are studied in a model with sticky prices money and distortionary taxation the ramsey optimal policy is used as a point of comparison the main findings are the size of the inflation coefficient in the interest rate rule plays a minor role for welfare it matters only insofar as it affects the determinacy of equilibrium optimal monetary policy features a muted response to output interest rate rules that feature a positive response to output can lead to significant welfare losses the welfare gains from interest rate smoothing are negligible optimal fiscal policy is passive the optimal monetary and fiscal rule combination attains virtually the same level of welfare as the ramsey optimal policy

why common factors in international bond returns are not so common this paper analyzes the common factor structure of us german and japanese government bond returns unlike previous studies we formally take into account the presence of country specific factors when estimating common factors we show that the classical approach of running a principal component analysis on a multi country dataset of bond returns captures both local and common influences and therefore tends to pick too many factors we conclude that us bond returns share only one common factor with german and japanese bond returns this single common factor is associated most notably with changes in the level of domestic term structures we show that accounting for country specific factors improves the performance of domestic and international hedging strategies

a selectivity model of employer size wage differentials this article investigates wage differentials for employees of different size firms utilizing an econometric methodology that allows the size of employer to be treated as endogenous in the context of discrete ordered employer size data as a result we are able to estimate i employer size wage gaps which are corrected for selectivity bias and ii the magnitude and direction of the selection bias decompositions of the resulting wage differentials are computed with comparisons of the conditional on sorting across employer size and unconditional wage gaps

the role of labor market intermittency in explaining gender wage differentials using the health and retirement survey and standard wage decomposition techniques this paper finds that the difference in intermittent labor force participation between men and women accounts for 47 percent of the contribution to the wage gap of differences in observed characteristics not controlling for intermittent behavior results in too much importance being placed on gender differences in job characteristics

decentralized borrowing and centralized default abstract in the past foreign borrowing by developing countries was comprised almost entirely of government borrowing however private firms and individuals in developing countries now borrow substantially from foreign lenders it is often asserted that this surge in private sector borrowing generates excessive borrowing and frequent sovereign defaults in developing countries this paper analyzes the impact of decentralized borrowing using a quantitative model in which private agents decide how much to borrow and the government decides whether to default relative to a model in which the government determines both the level of borrowing and whether to default decentralized borrowing drives up aggregate credit costs and sovereign default risk and reduces aggregate welfare interestingly decentralized borrowing may lead to either too much or too little debt in equilibrium depending on the severity of default penalties

at what level of labor market intermittency are women penalized a common explanation offered for the observed wage differential between men and women is that women are less attached to the labor market they exhibit a greater degree of labor market intermittency than do men there are several theories that explain this link between intermittency and lower wages including differences in human capital attainment atrophy of skills during absences and preferences of employers see e g solomon w polachek and w stanley siebert 1993 joyce p jacobsen and laurence m levin 1995 james w albrecht et al 2000 the goal of this paper is to explore in greater depth the role past labormarket intermittency plays in the determination of a woman s current wage and at what level of intermittent activity women can expect to have that activity affect her wage previous methods employed to measure the penalty associated with intermittent activity have either classified workers as intermittent if they have at least one spell of absence from the labor market jacobsen and levin 1995 or have relied on the percentage of time out of the labor force to classify intermittent workers elaine j sorenson 1993 however if employers perceive intermittent behavior as a signal then both the frequency of intermittent spells and the duration of the spells should be taken into account we contribute to this literature by creating an intermittency index that captures both of these factors we also statistically determine at what level of intermittency a woman will incur a penalty for absence from the labor force this index is used to determine the magnitude of the penalty associated with intermittent participation in the labor force the analysis is limited to women as intermittent behavior is more prevalent for women and to avoid potential confounding factors associated with gender discrimination

the effect interruptions in work experience have on wages individuals who interrupt their employment are generally expected to pay a price in the workplace 15 most researchers acknowledge that wages rise more rapidly with time spent in paid employment than with time spent in other noneducational activities thus the wages received by individuals reentering employment are expected to be below those obtained by similar individuals with continuous work records how far below is still a matter of debate one important line of research has focused upon the difference between pre interruption and post interruption wages specifically do real wages rise fall or remain unchanged during periods of nonemployment two findings stand out from past research first a wide variety of studies employing a wide variety of data sets have found that wages fall during periods of nonemployment the estimated decline ranges from 0 6 to over 5 annually but averages around 2 second this estimated depreciation rate is higher when the sample under investigation contains a greater proportion of recent reentrants thus there is a pattern to the estimates the purpose of this study is to investigate the observed sensitivity to sample composition in the past such sample sensitivity has been attributed to a rapid depreciation followed by a rebound in wages that over time partially offsets the initial decline if true the depreciation rate will be underestimated especially if the data include few recent reentrants two alternative hypotheses are tested in this study the first relies upon certain assumptions regarding part time employment patterns and wages if part time workers are paid less than full time workers and if part time employment is more common following reentry because it is used as a bridge to full time employment then estimates of the depreciation rate will be biased upward particularly when obtained from samples of recent reentrants if information on hours worked is ignored there may in fact be no depreciation at all results indicate that while part time workers are paid less than full time workers estimates

female labor force intermittency and current earnings a switching regression model with unknown sample selection using the health and retirement survey from the usa this paper finds a 16 selectivity corrected wage penalty among women who engage in intermittent labour market activity this penalty is experienced at a low level of intermittent activity but appears to not play an important role in a woman s decision to undertake such activity in addition employer preferences appear to play a larger role than human capital atrophy in the determination of the wage penalty

an empirical comparison of forward rate and spot rate models for valuing interest rate options our main goal is to investigate the question of which interest rate options valuation models are better suited to support the management of interest rate risk we use the german market to test seven spot and forward rate models with one and two factors for interest rate warrants for the period from 1990 to 1993 we identify a one factor forward rate model and two spot rate models with two factors that are not significantly outperformed by any of the other four models further rankings are possible if additional criteria are applied

consumption savings decisions with quasi geometric discounting we study the consumption savings problem of an infinitely lived rational consumer who has time inconsistent preferences in the form of quasi geometric discounting the consumer operates a weakly concave production function and must simply divide current resources into current consumption and savings there is no uncertainty a solution to the consumer s problem is a subgame perfect equilibrium of a dynamic game between the consumer s successive selves we show that this game has a continuum of equilibria in stationary markov strategies not only is the stationary point of the consumer s asset holdings indeterminate but each stationary point has a continuum of dynamic paths converging to it the savings policy rules underlying these dynamic paths are step functions

a test of dual labor market theory despite substantial differences in their views of the appropriate policy response to the existence of poverty neither the proponents of dual market theory nor its critics have proposed potentially conclusive tests of the dual market hypothesis this paper presents a test of the two central propositions of dual market theory 1 the existence of two distinct labor markets with different wage setting mechanisms and 2 the existence of barriers to mobility between the labor markets we find considerable support for both hypothesis estimation of a switching model of wage determination with unknown regimes yields two distinct wage equations the one which most workers are associated with closely resembles the standard human capital regression with significant returns to education and experience the other equation is flat with no returns to human capital these two equations resemble the predictions of dual market theory for the primary and secondary markets respectively further we present evidence that at least some non white workers are involuntarily confined to the secondary market this crowding of minority workers into the low wage labor market accounts for a substantial portion of white non white wage differences we interpret these results as providing empirical support for the dual market hypothesis and for recent theoretical work on efficiency wagemodels in addition combining the efficiency wage argument with the observation that much of the white non white wage difference is explained by the exclusion of non whites from the primary sector suggests an explanation for the persistance of wage differences this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

barriers to investment in polarized societies i present a tractable dynamic model of political economy where disagreements about the composition of public spending result in implementation of short sighted policies the relative price of investment to consumption is excessively large in equilibrium due to over taxation investment rates are too low which slows down growth along the transition in the long run this results in output consumption and welfare being inefficiently low the larger is the degree of polarization the greater is the inefficiency political stability mitigates the effects of polarization by making the incumbent internalize the dynamic inefficiencies introduced by the choice of growth retarding policies

labor market discrimination against hispanic and black men h ispanic american men have lower average wage rates than white non hispanics in 1975 the average white non hispanic male wage earner in the united states earned 5 97 an hour mexican men earned 4 31 72 as much as white non hispanics puerto rican men earned 4 52 76 as much and cuban men earned 5 33 89 as much as white non hispanics by way of comparison black men s average wages in 1975 were 4 65 78 of the white male wage several possible reasons for the hispanics lower wages come to mind among them are age and education geographic location immigration language difficulties and discrimination for example as shown in table 1 mexicans and puerto ricans are younger on average than the white non hispanic population and earnings tend to rise with age hispanics have lower average levels of education than white non hispanics and wages are positively associated with education many mexican americans live in the southwest where prices are relatively low moreover hispanics are more likely to be recent immigrants and to lack fluency in english than white non hispanics and so to be at a disadvantage in the labor market in addition there is a widespread belief that hispanics suffer from employment discrimination and cannot obtain the wages that their human capital would command if they were non hispanic whites how much of the wage differentials described above are due to each of these factors and to other inter group differences in wage related characteristics in particular how much impact does labor market discrimination have on the average hispanic man s wage and how does this compare with discrimination against blacks this paper provides answers to these questions a few other efforts have been made to analyze the relative earnings of hispanic and white nonhispanic men using 1960 and 1970 census data fogel 1966 poston and alvirez 1973 poston alvirez and tienda 1976 long 1977 and gwartney and long 1978 we use more recent data from the 1976 survey of income and education this data set enables us to measure wage rates more accurately and to specify the wage function more completely than does the census unlike previous analysts in estimating the wage function we take account of possible selectivity bias due to the distinction between average wage offers and average observed wages thus we hope to obtain a more accurate and up to date measure of labor market discrimination against hispanic men section ii explains the method used to separate the minority white non hispanic wage differential into the portions due to differences in average characteristics and the portion due to differences in unobserved factors and discrimination taking into account the possibility of selectivity bias in the observed wage sample section iii describes the data used in the study and the specification of the wage equation the breakdown of the observed wage differentials into components due to differences in participation in the wage and salary sector local price levels average characteristics and discrimination are presented in section iv section v summarizes our findings and discusses their implications for efforts to improve the economic situation of hispanics in the united states

the definition of part time employment a switching regression model with unknown sample selection rejecting the standard less than thirty five hours per week categorization of part time workers this paper offers an empirically justified definition of the part time employed the definition is based on the distinction through wage payments that employers make between a high hours full time and a low hours part time group of workers a switching regression model of wage equations with deterministic but unknown sample selection is estimated resulting in a significant split between high hours and low hours workers that is higher than the standard definition wage differentials are calculated and decomposed and estimates from the structural choice model are presented copyright 1991 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

personality and the gender wage gap in this study we investigate whether personality traits contribute towards a better understanding of the reasons for the gender wage gap we explore whether two of the personality factors put forward by bowles et al 2001 as likely to be incentive enhancing in the employer employee relationship can explain the difference in wages for women and men these are 1 personal self efficacy locus of control loc and 2 time preference we also study the role of the so called big five personality traits extraversion emotional stability agreeableness openness intellect and conscientiousness which have been associated with earnings in several recent studies using a sample of dutch employees we found that 11 5 of the observed gender wage gap could be ascribed to differences in the personality trait scores mainly in agreeableness and intellect while less than 0 5 could be ascribed to gender differences in the returns to the traits the addition of personality traits to a traditional human capital

pricing growth indexed bonds abstract growth indexed bonds have been suggested as a way of reducing the procyclicality of emerging market countries fiscal policies and the likelihood of costly debt crises investor attitude surveys suggest that pricing difficulties are seen as a considerable obstacle in an effort to reduce such concerns this article presents a simple way of pricing growth indexed bonds as a pleasant by product the analysis tracks the quantitative implications of an increase in the share of growth indexed bonds in total debt measuring the ensuing decline in the probability of default and the reduction in the spreads at which standard bonds can be issued

common factors in international bond returns in this paper we estimate and interpret the factors that jointly determine bond returns of different maturities in the us germany and japan we analyze both currency hedged and unhedged bond returns for currency hedged bond returns we find that five factors explain 96 5 of the variation of bond returns these factors can be associated with changes in the level and steepness of the term structures in some of these countries in particular it turns out that changes in the level of the term structures are correlated across countries while changes in the steepness of the term structures are country specific the five factor model also provides a good fit of the expected returns of bond returns in all countries we find similar results for bond returns that are not hedged for currency risk finally we show how the model can be used to calculate the value at risk for international bond portfolios and to price cross currency interest rate derivatives and compare the results with simpler models

expected risk and excess returns predictability in emerging bond markets this study examines the predictability of expected excess returns from eight emerging bond markets within an international asset pricing framework two sets of instruments are used which include both world and local factors to forecast emerging bond returns besides investigating the influence of the macroeconomic factors in specific countries on bond returns in those countries this study also divides local factors into macroeconomic and financial factors unlike previous studies we apply macroeconomic instruments that contain more information on excess returns as a proxy for local risk factors via principal component analysis methodology the information variable approach enables the prediction of excess bond returns based on world and local factors and facilitating understanding of the degree of integration between emerging bond markets and developed bond markets the results indicate that the bond market in emerging world is partially integrated to that in the developed world and the predictability

the twin ds optimal default and devaluation a salient characteristic of sovereign defaults is that they are typically accompanied by large devaluations this paper presents new evidence of this empirical regularity known as the twin ds and proposes a model that rationalizes it as an optimal policy outcome the model combines limited enforcement of debt contracts and downward nominal wage rigidity under optimal policy default is shown to occur during con tractions the role of default is to free up resources for domestic absorption and the role of exchange rate devaluation is to lower the real value of wages thereby reducing involuntary unemployment

heterogeneous borrowers in quantitative models of sovereign default we extend the model used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default allowing policymakers of different types to stochastically alternate in power we show that a default episode may be triggered by a change in the type of policymaker in office and that such a default is likely to occur only if there is enough political stability and if policymakers encounter poor economic conditions under high political stability political turnover enables the model to generate a weaker correlation between economic conditions and default decisions a higher and more volatile spread and lower borrowing levels after a default episode

internal debt crises and sovereign defaults internal and sovereign debt crises occur together and happen more frequently in economies with weak bankruptcy institutions this paper provides a novel explanation internal crises arise because of the inability to liquidate private debtors when many default in an optimal contract a successful entrepreneur repays yet an unsuccessful one defaults and liquidates his assets the bounds on liquidation generate however a second equilibrium where domestic borrowers default because others are also defaulting during these coordinated defaults tax collections fall which increases sovereign default risk in the model joint debt crises are an optimal response to informational problems in private sector lending

home production labor wedges and international business cycles non separabilities due to home production break the link between market consumption and its marginal utility and help explain several stylized facts of the open economy in an estimated two country model with complete asset markets in which home production generates a labor wedge that mimics its empirical counterpart output is more correlated than consumption across countries labor inputs and labor wedges are positively correlated across countries and relative market consumption is negatively related to the real exchange rate evidence from time use surveys corroborates some of the predictions of the model

on the decomposition of wage differentials the often used method for decomposing wage differentials into human capital and discrimination components is reformulated so that both t he disadvantage or cost discrimination it imposes on a black or minority wage earner and the advantage or benefit it bestows on a white or majority wage earner can be estimated copyright 1988 by mit press

u s consumer bankruptcy choice the importance of general equilibrium effects abstract we study the implications of u s personal bankruptcy rules for resource allocation and welfare our analysis shows that general equilibrium considerations along with bankruptcy chapter choice and production matter crucially for the effects of policy reform contrary to previous work we find that completely eliminating bankruptcy provisions causes significant declines in output and welfare by reducing capital formation and labor input furthermore subjecting chapter 7 filers to means testing as suggested by recent legislative proposals would not improve upon current bankruptcy provisions and at best leave aggregate filings output and welfare unchanged however we do find that an alternative tightening of chapter 7 in the form of lower asset exemptions can increase economic efficiency

long duration bonds and sovereign defaults abstract this paper extends the baseline framework used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default by assuming that the government can borrow using long duration bonds this contrasts with previous studies which assume the government can borrow using bonds that mature after one quarter we show that when we assume that the government issues bonds with a duration similar to the average duration of sovereign bonds in emerging economies the model generates an interest rate that is substantially higher and more volatile than the one obtained assuming one quarter bonds this narrows the gap between the predictions of the model and the data which indicates that the introduction of long duration bonds may be a useful tool for future research about emerging economies our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets

the sovereign bank diabolic loop and esbies we propose a simple model of the sovereign bank diabolic loop and establish four results first the diabolic loop can be avoided by restricting banks domestic sovereign exposures relative to their equity second equity requirements can be lowered if banks only hold senior domestic sovereign debt third such requirements shrink even further if banks only hold the senior tranche of an internationally diversified sovereign portfolio known as esbies in the euro area context finally esbies generate more safe assets than domestic debt tranching alone and insofar as the diabolic loop is defused the junior tranche generated by the securitization is itself risk free

lending constraints real estate prices and business cycles in emerging economies abstract we investigate a small open economy with constraints in both the domestic and the international credit market the informational opaqueness of the domestic market hinders foreign lenders activity so that entrepreneurs face looser borrowing constraints vis a vis domestic financiers however limited capitalization constrains domestic lenders calibrating the model to data from argentina we find that the interaction between lending and borrowing constraints is a channel through which real interest rate shocks generate fluctuations in output real estate prices and consumption external financial liberalization increases volatility and affects welfare more than domestic liberalization but also mitigates the destabilizing impact of domestic deregulation

explorations into factors explaining money market returns in this article we measure and interpret the common factors that describe money market returns results are presented for both three and four factor models we find that the three factor model explains on average 86 percent of the total variation in most money market returns while the four factor model explains on average 90 percent of this variation using mimicking portfolios we provide an interpretation of the systematic risks represented by these factors in this article we attempt to measure and interpret the common factors that describe money market returns the factor approach we employ assumes that the covariance matrix of a set of random variables in this case excess returns can be decomposed into common or systematic components and idiosyncratic or nonsystematic components this decomposition into systematic and nonsystematic components is based on an assumption of a linear relationship between the returns of each security and a set of common factors this is the assumption of linear return generating models which form an integral part of the structure of many asset pricing theories for example arbitrage pricing theory apt as developed by ross 1976 the interpretation is that the common factors represent sources of systematic or nondiversifiable risk and the idiosyncratic component of returns represents diversifiable risks our focus here is not on testing a particular asset pricing model per se but on developing empirical evidence for the existence of stylized facts regarding money market returns the stylized facts take the form of the existence measurement and interpretation of the common factors that are found in money markets our attempt to measure and interpret these sources of systematic risk may eventually lead to the construction of observable eco

bond market evidence of time variation in exposures to global risk factors and the role of us monetary policy abstract this paper empirically shows that us monetary policy influences present and future exposures of developed markets government bond returns to measures of global systematic risk and thus affects the time variation of these returns this finding highlights spillovers from us monetary policy to us dollar denominated foreign assets and to foreign assets denominated in other currencies than the us dollar from an asset pricing perspective the evidence reveals that exchange rate risk and time variation in sensitivities to global bond market and exchange rate risk are important to describe time variation in developed markets government bond returns

fiscal rules and government borrowing costs international evidence we find that the adoption of numerical fiscal rules reduces government borrowing costs in a sample of 101 advanced and developing countries for 1985 2010 we apply a variety of propensity score matching methods to address the self selection problem of policy adoption and find strong evidence that fiscal rules have large and significant treatment effects on lowering government borrowing costs in both international and domestic financial markets the results are robust to changes in country sample and alternative estimation methodology and are consistent with fiscal rules helping to build policy credibility by reducing the probability of default and the risk premium on government debt that compensates lenders for this possibility jel e43 g12 h60

sovereign default interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets abstract a large body of the empirical literature shows that high turnover rates length of tenure of policymakers and the degree of conflict within a country affects sovereign spreads debt and default rates we help to rationalize such claims by including these political features in a dynamic stochastic small open economy model of sovereign debt and default in this way we offer a complementary approach to the econometric analyses in the literature consistent with the data the quantitative analysis shows that politically unstable and more polarized economies experience higher default rates and larger level and volatility of sovereign interest rate spreads

career interruptions and subsequent earnings a reexamination using swedish data this paper reexamines the link between career interruptions and subsequent wages using a rich new swedish dataset we are able to disaggregate time out of work into several components regressing

factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads abstract we investigate the term structure of sovereign yield spreads for five advanced economies against the us and provide novel insights on the key drivers of the term structure we show that the spread term structure dynamics are driven by three latent factors which can be labeled as spread level slope and curvature similar to common interpretations found in the yield curve literature we further show that these estimated spread factors have predictive power for exchange rate movements and excess returns above the predictability of an uncovered interest rate parity approach as the yield curve contains information about expected future economic conditions we conjecture that these yield spread factors reflect expected macroeconomic differentials which in turn drive exchange rates using the information content of yield spread curves may thus be a promising approach to improve the forecasting accuracy of exchange rate models

sovereign debt maturity structure under asymmetric information abstract this paper studies the optimal choice of sovereign debt maturity when investors are unaware of the government s willingness to repay under a pooling equilibrium there is a wedge between the borrower s true default risk and the default risk priced in debt and its size differs with the maturity of debt safe borrowers tilt their debt maturity towards short term relative to the optimal choice under perfect information since long term debt pools more default risk that is not inherent to them risky borrowers mimic their behavior of safe borrowers to preclude the market from identifying their type in times of financial distress spreads increase and the default risk wedge of long term debt relative to short term debt increases which makes borrowers shorten their debt maturity data on bond issuances for a panel of countries show that consistent with the model maturities co vary negatively with spreads and that this co movement is stronger in those situations in which informational asymmetries are larger