the world bank global keynesianism and the distribution of the gains from growth sir hans singer whom this volume celebrates was a pupil of john maynard keynes at cambridge and in 1945 attended the bretton woods negotiations at which keynes and others designed the institutions which now seek to regulate and stimulate the international economy the world bank the imf and the gatt sir hans has provided ever since that time frequent creative suggestions concerning the way in which all of those institutions separately and in relation to the un system should set about the task of global economic governance with a particular flurry of activity around 1994 5 when the bretton woods institutions celebrated their half century by this time of course the bretton woods institutions had departed from their original articles of agreement and implicated the world bank progressively more deeply in policy based programme lending alongside its original project lending functions this paper attempts a little belatedly to take up some of the concerns aroused by that flurry of activity with particular reference to the world bank which keynes as we saw above saw as having the principal stimulative and entrepreneurial role the concerns have been expressed by sir hans in the following way the shift to programme lending and policy conditionality tied in with three other developments first the withering away of the development functions of the un created a gap into which it was tempting and easy for the world bank to move together with the imf second the debt crisis of the 1980s made the developing countries pliant in accepting conditionality pressures from the bretton woods institutions third in the process of replacing the un as a focus of development policy guidance and in line with trends in the major industrial countries the world bank developed again together with the imf a new washington consensus emphasising government failures market orientation liberalisation privatisation etc now the purpose of this is i am using the language of the imf and world bank now to cut down today but in doing so lay the foundations for subsequent sustainable growth now the fact is that if you cut down today it is just as likely that if you cut investment today that does not lay the foundations for subsequent growth that does exactly the opposite the imf are quite fond of illustrating their policy with the french proverb reculer pour mieux sauter the trouble is that what we have today is that in all too many cases the developing countries stand on the edge of an abyss and therefore by stepping back they don t gain manoeuvring space for moving forward but they fall into the abyss singer 1995 p 469 and 1994 p 55

aid for the poorest some early lessons of uk experience the paper presents an interim review of recent attempts to reach the poorest people in developing countries through aid policy from the viewpoint of one donor the united kingdom it concludes that the uk has achieved a modest increase in the proportion of aid aimed at the poorest between 1974 and 1979 that poverty focused projects are in general more local cost intensive and have lower rates of return than others and that the principal difficulties in the way of successful implementation of poverty focused projects are excessive size an over rapid rate of disbursement inadequate local cost provisions and failure to specify the target group or the repayment strategy with sufficient precision it is argued that there are political obstacles to removing the second and third of these obstacles in donor countries and to removing the fourth in recipient countries also

could a global marshall plan be successful an investigation using the weep simulation model abstract using the weep simulation model world economic equalization program this research examines the potential impact of a very large scale foreign development assistance program a global marshall plan on the future development of the world economy the benchmark simulations of the model indicate a dramatic reduction in world economic inequality at the cost of a very minor retardation in the economic growth of the rich countries sensitivity analysis demonstrates that with certain key exceptions these optimistic results are reasonably robust against parametric variation

do elites benefit from democracy and foreign aid in developing countries abstract a popular argument for the absence of any beneficial effects of foreign aid is that it is skimmed by political elites in recipient countries however studies also suggest that aid may be more effective in relatively democratic developing countries by exploring data on income quintiles derived from the world income inequality database for 88 developing countries a set of results indicate that foreign aid and democracy in conjunction are associated with a higher share of income held by the upper quintile it thus appears that foreign aid contrary to popular beliefs leads to a more skewed income distribution in democratic developing countries while the effects are negligible in autocratic countries the paper closes with a discussion of potential mechanisms generating this perverse effect

stylized facts and regime changes are prices procyclical we investigate empirically the stability of the correlation between output growth and inflation using a technique that allows for changes in regime we look at recent quarterly data for the g4 and at historical data for the u s and u k we find evidence of changes both in means and variances in both sources of data in the quarterly data we find that the covariance between output growth and inflation is typically negative in the historical data we find as suggested in previous studies that inflation was procyclical especially in the inter war years but has been countercyclical in the post war period

real exchange rate volatility and the price of nontradable goods in economies prone to sudden stops the dominant view in the empirical literature on exchange rates is that the high variability of real exchange rates is due to movements in exchange rate adjusted prices of tradable goods this paper shows that this dominant view does not hold in mexican data for the periods in which the country had managed exchange rate regimes variance analysis of a 30 year sample of monthly data shows that movements in the price of nontradables relative to tradables account for up to 70 percent of the variability of the real exchange rate during these periods the paper proposes a model in which this stylized fact and the sudden stops that accompanied the collapse of mexico s managed exchange rates could result from an endogenous amplification mechanism operating via nontradables prices in economies with dollarized liabilities and credit constraints the key feature of this mechanism is irving fisher s debt deflation process numerical evaluation suggests that the fisherian deflation effects on consumption the current account and relative prices dwarf those induced by the standard balance sheet effect typical of the sudden stops literature

foreign aid and fiscal governance in melanesia summary recent research suggests that foreign aid is effective at spurring economic growth in recipient countries but its effectiveness is likely to depend upon a number of factors arguably the most important factor determining aid effectiveness is how recipient governments mediate foreign aid inflows this paper investigates this issue for the melanesian countries of fiji papua new guinea the solomon islands and vanuatu for the period 1989 2002 results suggest that foreign aid has led to increases in developmental expenditures and to falls in tax revenues and borrowing results also suggest a very different response to aid grants versus loans

foreign aid taxes and public investment abstract using time series data for india we test the foreign aid public investment hypothesis behavioral equations derived from a maximizing framework are estimated after correcting for econometric and data inadequacies of earlier models the results confirm earlier findings regarding the negative relationship between taxes and government investment in the presence of aid however in contrast to the earlier work we find that grants and loans generally go into development projects with no leakages into consumption moreover bilateral aid actually pulls resources out of consumption and puts them into development projects

does foreign aid increase private investment evidence from panel cointegration this article uses panel cointegration and causality techniques to examine the long run relationship between foreign aid and private investment our main result is that aid has a statistically significant negative effect on private investment this result is robust to outliers different measures and forms of aid sample selection and the sample period in addition we find that long run causality runs in both directions suggesting that an increase in aid reduces private investment and that in turn higher private investment leads to lower aid inflows

note on international differences in service prices and some related empirical phenomena abstract this paper provides an alternative explanation of some important stylized facts of development including the phenomenon of international differences in service prices in terms of differences in factor endowments between countries in so doing this paper advances a general equilibrium model of a small open economy which features non traded goods as well as demand factors thereby incorporating important economic aspects which were neglected by many others an interesting finding which emerges from this exercise is that many puzzles in development can be explained simply in terms of differences in factor endowments between countries

the economics of development a survey i the subject our definition of the subject will be the use of economic analysis to understand the economies of poor or developing countries this includes in particular how standards of living in the population are determined and how they change over time and further how policy can or should be used in the influence of these processes the definition contains in principle much or most of analytical methods in economics insofar as they can be put to use in the examination of the issues of interest this is as it should be but it poses a problem for a survey in a journal a comprehensive treatment is infeasible so we shall follow a different route the survey will focus on what i take to be the major themes and approaches which characterise the productive aspects of the subject there is therefore no pretence at being exhaustive the purpose is rather to highlight some of the advances many of these have been of real substance there are a number of possible purposes for a survey and it is important to be clear at the outset for whom it is intended what it is and what it is not this survey is addressed to economists and students of economics who know the tools of their trade but not necessarily how they have been applied to and fashioned for the analysis of the economics of developing countries it is a description of the ways in which problems can be productively formulated and approached in terms of examples chosen for their intrinsic importance and interest the vastness of the subject means that we have to be highly selective it does not seek to provide a summary evaluation of the current view of the appropriate response to immediate policy questions it is not a history of thought nor a research manifesto nor an attempt to adjudicate or settle the major debates where they arise naturally from the major purpose some judgements on these subjects will be offered but they do not themselves constitute the primary intent of this survey there are three lines of enquiry or sets of questions which have i suggest been distinctive of the most fruitful work in development economics they will

effects of stabex on acps economic growth further evidence the paper deals with the economic growth of the open and small developing countries which signed the lome convention henceforth acps results showing that earnings instability damages their economic performance can be used to support the eu policy of guaranteeing financial aid to those countries suffering reductions in export proceeds the second section of the paper analysing the workings of stabex however highlights certain weaknesses in the effectiveness of stabex transfers when their impact on economic growth is considered the general conclusion is that if the current eu acp negotiations for lome v are to be successful then some aspects of the scheme eligibility criteria and use of funds will have to be radically changed

optimal monetary policy in a currency area abstract this paper investigates how monetary policy should be conducted in a two region general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and price stickiness this framework delivers a simple welfare criterion based on the utility of the consumers that can be used to evaluate monetary policy in a currency area if the two regions share the same degree of nominal rigidity the terms of trade are completely insulated from monetary policy and the optimal outcome is obtained by targeting a weighted average of the regional inflation rates these weights coincide with the economic sizes of the region if the degrees of rigidity are different the optimal plan implies a high degree of inertia in the inflation rate but an inflation targeting policy in which higher weight is given to the inflation in the region with higher degree of nominal rigidity is nearly optimal

on the international dimension of fiscal policy this paper analyses the international dimension of fiscal policy using a small open economy framework in which the government finances its spending by levying distortionary taxation and issuing non state contingent debt the main finding of the paper is that once the open economy aspect of the policy problem is considered it is not optimal to smooth taxes following idiosyncratic shocks even when prices are flexible and inflation can costlessly act as a shock absorber to restore fiscal equilibrium the presence of a terms of trade externality lead to movements in the tax rate also in contrast with the closed economy the introduction of sticky prices can reduce the optimal volatility of taxes

introduction aid and development the debate on the impact of aid on the economies of developing countries is a rapidly evolving one early studies by e g papanek 1972 reported a positive impact of aid on growth within a multiple regression context this conclusion allowed policy makers to entertain the possibility that poverty across the world could be largely eradicated that countries could be moved out of poverty through the allocation of aid and that the following of successful policies would allow them to generate increased prosperity from their own resources unfortunately after some thirty years the poor are still with us poverty shows relatively little signs of disappearing and until recently enthusiasm for aid amongst donors had declined the papers in this symposium examine the effectiveness of aid in the past and its potential in the future a number of economic studies help explain this apparent failure mosley et al 1987 found it impossible to establish any significant relationship between aid and the growth rate of developing countries they suggested that this might be because of the possibility of leakages into non productive expenditure in the public sector and the transmission of negative price effects to the private sector they also argued for the targeting of aid i e its allocation to countries where it would be used most effectively boone 1996 concluded that aid does not significantly increase growth nor benefit the poor it did however increase the size of the government but again the message was not entirely negative in terms of what aid could achieve and argued for the targeting of aid this time at liberal democratic regimes as they appeared more effective in for example reducing infant mortality hence until recently the dominant view within economics had become pessimistic with respect to the past effectiveness of aid but somewhat optimistically perhaps held out the hope for improvement on the basis of aid targeting more recently however work by burnside and dollar 2000 was to put forward a more optimistic view of the former they concluded that aid had a positive impact on growth for developing countries with good fiscal monetary and trade policies in place but had little impact for those countries who were following poor policies this therefore partially at least provided an explanation of why aid had been found to have little positive impact on growth in previous empirical work it also provided specific criteria for targeting aid this was then built upon by collier and dollar 2001 2002 who calculated a poverty efficient allocation of aid which focused on those countries with a combination of most poverty and best policies they suggested that targeting of aid in this manner would almost double its effectiveness in reducing poverty this work has had an extraordinary impact upon policy and easterly 2003 as well as dalgaard hansen and tarp dht in this symposium document how it

reinventing foreign aid for inclusive and sustainable development kuznets piketty and the great policy reversal this survey essay reviews over 200 papers in arguing that in order to achieve sustainable and inclusive development foreign aid should not orient developing countries towards industrialisation in the perspective of kuznets but in the view of piketty abandoning the former s view that inequality will fall with progress in industrialisation and placing more emphasis on inequality in foreign aid policy will lead to more sustainable development outcomes inter alia mitigate short term poverty address concerns of burgeoning population growth train recipient governments on inclusive development fight corruption and mismanagement and avoid the shortfalls of celebrated kuznets conjectures we discuss how the essay addresses post 2015 development challenges and provide foreign aid policy instruments with which discussed objectives can be achieved in summary the essay provides useful policy measures to avoid past pitfalls output may be growing and yet the mass of the people may be becoming poorer lewis 1955 lewis led all developing countries to water proverbially speaking some african countries have so far chosen not to drink amavilah 2014 piketty 2014 has led all developing countries to the stream again and a challenging policy syndrome of our time is how foreign aid can help them to drink

a panel data analysis of the fungibility of foreign aid the donor community has been increasingly concerned that development assistance intended for crucial social and economic sectors might be used directly or indirectly to fund unproductive military and other expenditures the link between foreign aid and public spending is not straightforward because some aid may be fungible this article empirically examines the impact of foreign aid on the recipient s public expenditures using cross country samples of annual observations for 1971 90 for the base sample of 14 developing countries it finds that aid is not fungible at the aggregate level and there is no associated tax relief increasing the number of countries however makes aid fungible moreover results based on the main sample indicate that aid is fungible in three out of five sectors examined developing country governments receiving earmarked concessionary loans for agriculture education and energy reduce their own resources going to these sectors and use them elsewhere only loans to the transport and communication sector are fully spent on the purposes intended by donors because most aid appears to be fungible the rate of return on a specific donor funded project tells little about the impact of that assistance a better approach may be to tie foreign aid to an overall public expenditure program that provides adequate resources to crucial sectors

foreign aid taxes and public investment a further comment abstract the paper in this journal by gang and khan 1991 employed heller s 1975 fiscal response model to demonstrate that aid to india has all been used to finance government investment this conclusion is shown to be a misinterpretation of the model s results which actually suggest that aid has had no impact on government investment at all however the reported parameters are determined by the estimation procedure adopted by gang and khan and not by the indian government s fiscal behaviour

short and long interest rate targets can both short and long term interest rates be targeted independently can the target of the term structure help solve the problem of multiplicity of equilibria that occurs when only the short rate is targeted both questions are addressed and the answer is yes to both

a model of real national price levels this paper is concerned with the price level in the sense used in a recent paper by kravis and lipsey entitled toward an explanation of national price levels 15 the price level of a particular country relative to the base country is defined as the ratio of the purchasingpower parity ppp to the exchange rate it has become generally recognized that the ppp need not equal the exchange rate even in long run free trade equilibrium and the explanation of the discrepancy is a natural subject of scientific interest there is a voluminous literature on temporary deviations of ppp from the exchange rate that are explained in terms of monetary disturbances and random shocks there is a much smaller literature on long run or structural factors that explain why ppp does not coincide with the exchange rate the present paper falls in the second category we shall assume the economy is in monetary and balance of payments equilibrium the term price level as used in kravis and lipsey 15 may be confusing because that term usually refers to the price of goods in terms of money the term real price level seems more appropriate in that the concept refers to a ratio of two prices the real price level is what the tourist has in mind when he goes to a poor country and remarks my but prices are low here a major feature of the existing literature on long run or structural explanations of the real price level is the emphasis on the distinction between tradables and nontradables it is typically assumed that the law of one price holds for tradables but not for nontradables which are dominated by services the productivity differential model as stated by balassa 2 for example assumes that international differences in labor productivity are greater in commodities tradables than in services it follows that services will be relatively cheap in poor low productivity countries and that consequently the real price level relative to a base country will rise with per capita income recently bhagwati 5 has shown that the low relative price of services in poor countries can be explained by a capital labor model without recourse to the assumption that production functions differ internationally in bhagwati s model rich countries export capital intensive commodities and poor countries export labor intensive commodities but even though commodity prices are equalized through trade complete specialization prevents factor prices from being equalized since services are assumed to be labor intensive relative to any commodity they are cheaper in poor countries than in rich countries

impact of foreign aid on the fiscal behavior of ldc governments abstract the purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of foreign aid on the behavior of the recipient governments specifically we look at a sample of less developed countries in south and southeast asia and study their response to foreign aid received their response is measured in terms of their public investment and consumption as well as taxation our paper attempts to make two new contributions to the literature first we try to estimate the impact of foreign aid on a sample of five south and southeast asian countries secondly we improve on the earlier method of a combination of single equation and two step least squares by estimating the whole system with a nonlinear three step least squares method the results confirm the hypothesis that aid does affect consumption investment and taxation of these governments but they also show that the relationship is a complex one in particular grants and loans have different effects on investment and taxation

overturning mundell fiscal policy in a monetary union central to ongoing debates over the desirability of monetary unions is a supposed trade off outlined by mundell 1961 a monetary union reduces transactions costs but renders stabilization policy less effective if shocks across countries are sufficiently correlated then according to this argument delegating monetary policy to a single central bank is not very costly and a monetary union is desirable this paper explores this argument in a setting with both monetary and fiscal policies in an economy with monetary policy alone we confirm the presence of the trade off and find that indeed a monetary union will not be welfare improving if the correlation of national shocks is too low however fiscal interventions by national governments combined with a central bank that has the ability to commit to monetary policy overturn these results in equilibrium such a monetary union will be welfare improving for any correlation of shocks

optimal inflation persistence ramsey taxation with capital and habits ramsey models of fiscal and monetary policy featuring time separable preferences and a fixed supply of capital predict highly volatile inflation with no serial correlation in this paper we show that an otherwise standard ramsey model that incorporates capital accumulation and habit persistence predicts highly persistent inflation the result depends on increases in either the ability to smooth consumption or the preference for doing so the effect operates through the fisher relationship a smoother profile of consumption implies a more persistent real interest rate which in turn implies persistent optimal inflation our work complements a recent strand of the ramsey literature based on models with nominal rigidities in these latter models inflation volatility is lower than in the baseline model but continues to exhibit little persistence we quantify the effects of habit and capital on inflation persistence and also relate our findings to recent work on optimal fiscal policy with incomplete markets

sustainable plans and mutual default this paper presents a simple general equilibrium model of optimal taxation in which both private agents and the government can default on their debt as a benchmark we consider ramsey equilibria in which the government can precommit to its policies at the beginning of time but in which private agents can default we then consider sustainable equilibria in which both government and private agent decision rules are required to be sequentially rational we adapt abreu s 1988 optimal trigger strategies to completely characterize the entire set of sustainable equilibria in particular we show that when there is sufficiently little discounting and government consumption fluctuates enough the ramsey allocations and policies in which the government never defaults can be supported by a sustainable equilibrium by way of an example we show that the larger the variance of government consumption the easier it is to support good outcomes we also show for moderate discount factors that in the best sustainable equilibrium tax rates are more volatile and debt is smaller than in the ramsey equilibrium

optimal maturity of government debt without state contingent bonds abstract this paper shows that state contingent debt can be synthetically constructed using non contingent debt of different maturities a main policy implication of this principle is that the ramsey allocation with complete markets can be sustained with non contingent debt only by properly managing its maturity structure the numerical experiments however suggest that this policy implication ought to be taken with care we find that the debt positions that sustain the ramsey allocation are very high on the order of a few hundred times total gdp for a very simple four state economy and increasing in the number of states in addition they are very sensitive to small variations in the parameters of the model

aid and growth regressions this paper examines the relationship between foreign aid and growth in real gdp per capita as it emerges from simple augmentations of popular cross country growth specifications it is shown that aid in all likelihood increases the growth rate and this result is not conditional on good policy there are however decreasing returns to aid and the estimated effectiveness of aid is highly sensitive to the choice of estimator and the set of control variables when investment and human capital are controlled for no positive effect of aid is found yet aid continues to impact on growth via investment we conclude by stressing the need for more theoretical work before this kind of cross country regressions are used for policy purposes

optimal taxation without state contingent debt in an economy studied by lucas and stokey tax rates inherit the serial correlation structure of government expenditures belying barro s earlier result that taxes should be a random walk for any stochastic process of government expenditures to recover a version of barro s random walk tax smoothing outcome we modify lucas and stokey s economy to permit only risk free debt having only risk free debt confronts the ramsey planner with additional constraints on equilibrium allocations beyond one imposed by lucas and stokey s assumption of complete markets the ramsey outcome blends features of barro s model with lucas and stokey s in our model the contemporaneous effects of exogenous government expenditures on the government deficit and taxes resemble those in lucas and stokey s model but incomplete markets put a near unit root component into government debt and taxes an outcome like barro s however we show that without ad hoc limits on the government s asset holdings outcomes can diverge in importa

does foreign aid promote the expansion of government building on the literature on public finance i seek to advance our understanding of variations in government size by exploring the impact of official development assistance on fiscal policy i hypothesize that foreign aid operates in accordance with the flypaper effect systematically generating incentives and opportunities for the expansion of government spending results from a time series cross sectional regression analysis of growth in government spending over the 1970 99 time period are consistent with the hypothesis for middle and lower income nations aid represents an important determinant of government expansion looking at the tax and revenue side of the equation however reveals a more perverse pattern of response aid promotes not only increased spending but also reduced revenue generation the results have important implications from both a theoretical and policy perspective inter alia they point to the potentially self defeating nature of efforts to promote market oriented programs of state retrenchment via development assistance as well as to the importance of incorporating international transfers into future research on government spending

why are services cheaper in the poor countries in their important work on international comparisons of national incomes and of comparative price structure kravis heston and summers i982 p 8 have noted that services are much cheaper in the relative price structure of a typical poor country than in that of a rich country this phenonomen has been documented now fairly systematically by the data gathered under their guiding hand of the united nations international comparison icp which covers 34 countries table i reproduced from their work i982 and fig i based on rows 3 and ii 13 indeed show this tendencyfor the relationship between relative service prices and real per capita gdp in this kravis heston summers 34 country 6 group sample the tendency is strongly evident except for the intermediate groups iii and iv

the real exchange rate under various systems of international capital taxation international organizations such as the organization for economic co operation and development oecd and the european community ec have promoted to varying degrees the liberalization of capital movements among their member countries the code of liberalization of capital movements an agreement drawn in 1982 by the oecd sets different degrees of capital liberalization among its member countries depending on the nature of capital transactions e g direct or portfolio investment the treaty of rome 1957 recommended among other things the liberalization of capital movements among the ec countries chapter iv articles 67 72 by and large capital movements in the ec have been liberalized since 1990 the remaining restrictions in the capital markets of some member countries such as greece ireland portugal and spain were to be eliminated by the end of 1992 2 these developments in the world capital markets have prompted a renewed interest among trade theorists regarding the response of key economic variables e g national income employment and welfare to the liberalization of capital movements with capital becoming more mobile internationally capital flows in a country depend among other things on the domestic and the foreign capital tax rate and on the prevailing system of taxing net repatriated capital earnings in the capital exporting countries frequently capitalexporting countries tax the net repatriated capital earnings according to a system i of tax credits under which tax payments by foreign capital invested in a capital importing country are credited toward its tax liability to the source capital exporting country 3 ii of tax deductions under which

fiscal composition and aid effectiveness a political economy model summary in the long run tax effort we argue determines the effectiveness of aid and this relationship operates simultaneously with the negative link in the opposite direction observed by brautigam and knack 2004 and others tax effort and the ability of the state to diversify its taxation structure we find are significantly linked to growth and poverty indicators the key message for policy is that a broadening of the tax structure in low income countries is crucial in order to enable those countries to escape from the weak state low tax trap and to make aid effective

rethinking development effectiveness development effectiveness has become a recurring theme in today s international development discourse the expression is largely selfexplanatory it simply refers to the effectiveness of foreign aid in fostering development however as the priority of development has evolved so has the meaning and content of development effectiveness that international development agencies seek to achieve the initial focus of development assistance in the 1940s was the reconstruction of the war torn economies of europe and japan with rapid progress of the postwar reconstruction work the focus of development assistance shifted to what has now come to be known as the developing world at first the goal was to increase the income of these countries however it was soon realized that this was a limited goal owing to the complex conflation of population growth and changing income distributions it was observed that economic growth does not necessarily translate into higher standards of living for the general population by the 1960s and 1970s the focus of the development agenda was on the twin objectives of economic growth and poverty reduction and subsequently shifted gradually toward the basic needs of the population by the 1990s reduction of absolute poverty became a priority in the international development institutions

fiscal stabilization with partial exchange rate pass through this paper examines the role of fiscal stabilization policy in a two country framework that allows for a general degree of exchange rate pass through i derive analytical solutions for optimal monetary and fiscal policy which are shown to depend on the degree of passthrough in the case of partial pass through an optimizing policy maker uses counter cyclical fiscal stabilization in addition to monetary stabilization however in the extreme cases of complete or zero pass through the fiscal stabilization instrument is not employed there is also no additional gain from the fiscal instrument in the case of coordination between the two countries these results are due to the specific way the optimal fiscal policy rule affects marginal costs rather than being a substitute for monetary policy fiscal policy complements it by increasing the correlation of the marginal cost terms within and across countries this in turn makes monetary policy more effective at stabilizing them

optimal fiscal and monetary policy some recent results this paper studies the quantitative properties of fiscal and monetary policy in business cycle models in terms of fiscal policy optimal labor tax rates are virtually constant and optimal capital income tax rates are close to zero on average in terms of monetary policy the friedman rule is optimal nominal interest rates are zero and optimal monetary policy is activist in the sense that it responds to shocks to the economy

some determinants of foreign aid to india 1960 1985 abstract using a unique data set of aid to india from all sources 1960 1985 we discuss the magnitude and composition of aid and present a principal components analysis of aid giving we then attempt to get at the underlying patterns and causes of aid giving using factor analytic techniques and explain the level of foreign aid by employing a partial adjustment model we find that latent motivations to classify the donor countries into four convenient groups each with different political and economic motivations we also find that the latent variables capturing the motivations of the united states western european countries eastern european countries as well as last year s aid and the balance of trade but not gdp growth are significant determinants of the level of aid

does foreign aid distort incentives and hurt growth theory and evidence from 75 aid recipient countries foreign aid transfers can distort individual incentives and hence hurt growth by encouraging rent seeking as opposed to productive activities we construct a model of a growing small open economy that distinguishes two effects from foreign transfers i a direct positive effect as higher transfers allow the financing of infrastructure ii an indirect negative effect as higher transfers induce rent seeking competition by self interested individuals in this framework the growth impact of aid is examined jointly with the determination of rent seeking behavior we test the main predictions of the model for a cross section of 75 aid recipient countries there is evidence that aid has a direct positive effect on growth which is however significantly mitigated by the adverse indirect effects of associated rent seeking activities this is especially the case in recipient countries with relatively large public sectors

funding self sustaining development the role of aid fdi and government in economic success this article challenges a long held development policy assumption that aid and foreign direct investment fdi serve as substitutes or complements in accelerating the development of the world s poorer countries we show both theoretically and empirically that aid and fdi affect development differently aid contributes powerfully to both economic growth and human development and the higher the level of human capital in a country the more aid contributes by contrast fdi at best has no effect on economic growth and actually slows the rate of human development in less developed countries we find no evidence that the degree of democratic responsiveness in government conditions the effectiveness of either aid or fdi although we do find that democracy independently increases human development in all but the most developed countries our results demonstrate that fdi and aid are not and cannot be substitutes in the development of the world s poorer countries nor even can they be thought of as complements certainly not at mid to low levels of development in the end poor countries need democracy and aid not fdi we are extremely grateful to susan rose ackerman gustav ranis frances rosenbluth kenneth scheve and participants at the leitner political economy seminar at yale university in december 2003 for very helpful comments we also received valuable suggestions from two anonymous reviewers stephen kosack would like to thank the national science foundation for the support of a graduate research fellowship

fiscal and monetary rules for a currency union abstract this paper addresses the optimal joint conduct of fiscal and monetary policy in a two country model of a currency union with staggered price setting and distortionary taxes a tractable linear quadratic approximation permits a representation of the optimal policy plan in terms of targeting rules in the optimal equilibrium monetary policy should achieve aggregate price stability following a flexible inflation targeting rule fiscal policy should stabilize idiosyncratic shocks allowing for permanent variations of government debt but should abstain from creating inflationary expectations at the union level simple policy rules can approximate the optimal commitment benchmark through a mix of strict inflation targeting and flexible budget rules conversely the welfare costs of balanced budget rules are at least one order of magnitude higher than conventional estimates of the costs of business cycle fluctuactions

tariffs transfers and the real exchange rate the deviation of exchange rates from purchasing power parities ppp s has recently become the subject of theoretical and empirical attention the massive body of data collected and presented by the international comparisons project icp under the direction of kravis heston and summers khs 9 11 has permitted new empirical investigation of an old topic and has stimulated the construction of theoretical models to account for observed patterns in the icp project and the related literature the focus is on the ratio of the exchange rate to the ppp the concept of this ratio is closely related to the concept of the real exchange rate which is defined as the actual exchange rate multiplied by the ratio of an index of foreign prices to an index of domestic prices the term real exchange rate a term widely employed in both economics journals and in the financial press is frequently used to describe changes over time in a particular country and its calculation requires only time totime changes in exchange rates and price indexes the ratio of the exchange rate to the ppp on the other hand refers to a comparison of the levels of the exchange rate and the ppp at a moment in time and its calculation requires the availability of a ppp survey of the kind performed by the icp the purpose of the present paper is to analyze the effects of tariffs and transfers on the real exchange rate of a small country in this theoretical endeavor we shall hold constant the prices in foreign countries in this context it can easily be seen that the real exchange rate and the ratio of the exchange rate to the ppp are identical concepts provided that the expenditure weights used in the index of domestic prices are the same as those used in the calculation of the ppp

optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital abstract this paper is concerned with the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital in a dynamic context optimal taxation means distributing tax distortions over time in a welfare maximizing way for a barter economy our main finding is that with debt commitments of sufficiently rich maturity structure an optimal policy if one exists is time consistent in a monetary economy the idea of optimal taxation must be broadened to include an inflation tax and we find that time consistency does not carry over an optimal inflation tax requires commitment by rules in a sense that has no counterpart in the dynamic theory of ordinary excise taxes the reason time consistency fails in a monetary economy is that nominal assets should from a welfare maximizing point of view always be taxed away via an immediate inflation in a kind of capital levy this emerges as a new possibility when money is introduced into an economy without capital

aid poverty reduction and the new conditionality the paper examines the effect of aid on poverty rather than on economic growth we devise a pro poor public expenditure index and present evidence that together with inequality and corruption this is a key determinant of the aid s poverty leverage after presenting empirical evidence which suggests a positive leverage of aid donors on pro poor expenditure we argue for the development of conditionality in a new form which gives greater flexibility to donors in punishing slippage on previous commitments and keys aid disbursements to performance in respect of policy variables which governments can influence in a pro poor direction

aid policies and growth the authors of this paper use a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid economic policies and growth of per capita gdp in panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and 6 four year periods 1970 93 they find that the policies that have a great effect on growth are those related to fiscal surplus inflation and trade openness they construct an index for those three policies and have that index interact with foreign aid they have instruments for both aid and aid interacting with policies they find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal monetary and trade policies in the presence of poor policies aid has no positive effect on growth this result is robust in a variety of specifications which include or exclude middle income countries include or exclude outliers and treat policies as exogenous or endogenous they examine the determinants of policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected policies either for good or for ill they estimate an aid allocation equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donors pursuit of their own strategic interests in a counterfactual they reallocate aid reduce the role of donor interests and increasing the importance of policy such a reallocation would have a large positive effect on developing countries growth rates

optimal fiscal and monetary policy equivalence results in this article we analyze the implications of price setting restrictions for the conduct of cyclical fiscal and monetary policy we consider standard monetary economies that differ in the price setting restrictions imposed on the firms we show that independently of the degree or type of price stickiness it is possible to implement the same efficient set of allocations and that each allocation in that set is implemented with policies that are also independent of the price stickiness in this sense environments with different price setting restrictions are equivalent

aid the public sector and the market in less developed countries a reply the article in this journal by mosley et al i987 concludes its analysis of aid effectiveness as demonstrating inability of development aid over more than twenty years to provide a net increment to overall growth in the third world p 636 this note purports to show that this conclusion which is ostensibly distressing as the authors claim is not warranted the section of the study which is the basis of the conclusion cited and the subject of this note is a cross section regression analysis full details of which are shown in mosley et al table 3 the note is concerned with the relation between the dependent variable specified as the growth rate of real gdp per cent per annum hereafter gdp and aid specified as a percentage of gdp hereafter aid the aid results with only two significant positive coefficients in one subsample certainly give no basis for claiming aid effectiveness in terms of gdp growth the intention in this note is to interpret the results which are assumed to be valid this is made possible by the fact that the authors have helpfully provided the full input set of mean values derived from the raw data from this it is possible to calculate the gdp aid relationship for each country for the second and third period the procedure for deriving these relationships is as follows for each country the mean values of the time series of gdp and aid are extracted from the data for i 960 70 and for i 970 80 using i 960 70 as the base the signs of the change in the levels of the gdp and aid mean values between periods are recorded this is repeated for i980 4 with i970 80 mean values as the base the relationship between the two signs is an indication of the effect of aid on gdp in the period in which the change in levels is effected thus in the case of an increase in aid being combined with a decrease in gdp the latter must have fallen relatively to the former and aid effectiveness is negative mutatis mutandis for the other three sign combinations thus generating the appropriate gdp aid relationship for each country in each period a frequency distribution of the four sign combinations relating to the full sample is presented in table i since the signs of the changes in the levels of gdp and aid are derived by making explicit the arithmetic relationship implicit in the data they form a valid base from which to draw conclusions without requiring any test of

the effectiveness of aid on savings and investment in sub saharan africa do volatility and institutional quality matter abstractthe effectiveness of aid is somewhat subject to its volatility this study investigates the impact of aid volatility especially on savings and investment with a particular focus on the role of institutional quality in 45 sub saharan african ssa countries over the period from 1990 to 2013 we used the generalized method of moments gmm technique combined with a measure of volatility namely an averaged data method involving six 4 year sub periods our results suggest that while aid is positively associated with savings and investment its volatility is harmful to savings and investment however when higher quality institutions exist the volatility of aid has a less negative impact on savings and investment the policy implications are diverse first donors and ssa aid dependent countries need to take into account the diversity of shocks to which aid can respond in mitigating its unpredictability secondly ssa countries should be encouraged to establish the conditions for better quality inst

real exchange rate effects of fiscal expansion under trade restrictions we develop a small open economy trade model where either a tariff or a quota or a voluntary export restraint ver exists and where one exported one imported one non traded and one public good are produced within this context we examine the effects of fiscal expansion on welfare and the real exchange rate rer among other things it is demonstrated that when the direct social profitability effect of the public good is positive and the public good is a net complement to the non traded good fiscal expansion causes an appreciation of the rer under free trade and under a tariff when the public good is also a net complement to the imported good the paper identifies additional conditions required to ensure the appreciation of the rer due to fiscal expansion under an import quota or a ver les effets de 1 expansion fiscale sur les taux de change reels quand il y a des restrictions au commerce international les auteurs developpent un modele de commerce international d une petite economie ouverte oiu existe soit un tarif douanier soit un contingentement soit une restriction volontaire des exportations dans ce modele un bien import6 un bien exporte un bien qui n est pas transige internationalement et un bien public sont produits

aid nontraded goods and the transfer paradox in small countries this paper constructs a model of the transfer paradox for a small open economy with nontraded goods it demonstrates that increased production of nontraded goods can change their domestic price so as to offset the otherwise beneficial effect of aid and under certain conditions to create a transfer paradox even in a small country the model is estimated with time series data for 44 aid dependent countries for the period 1970 90 the results support the model and show that the nontraded goods expansion effect is more likely to cause immiserization than harry g johnson s 1967 tariff distorting export displacement effect

foreign aid and government fiscal behaviour in low income south asian countries the major purpose of this study was to analyse the relationship between foreign aid and government fiscal behaviour using a pooled sample of three low income south asian countries pakistan india and sri lanka a simultaneous equation system was developed and estimated using nonlinear three stage least squares procedure the results confirm the hypothesis that foreign aid affects both the expenditure and the revenue side of the recipient government budgets both grants and loans are used for consumption as well as for investment purposes however grants leak into consumption more than loans thus if the purpose of aid is to generate investment it is more helpful if donors extend loans to the developing countries than by giving grants the results also indicate that both grants and loans increase the taxation effort multilateral aid actually pulls resources out of consumption and places them into investment projects thus the results confirm the assertion that a shift from bilateral to multilateral ai

optimal fiscal and monetary policy with sticky prices in this paper i consider the role of state contingent inflation as a fiscal shock absorber in an economy with nominal rigidities i study the ramsey equilibrium in a monetary model with distortionary taxation nominal non state contingent debt and sticky prices with sticky prices the ramsey planner must balance the shock absorbing benefits of state contingent inflation against the associated resource misallocation costs for government spending processes resembling post war experience introducing sticky prices generates striking departures in optimal policy from the case with flexible prices for even small degrees of price rigidity optimal policy displays very little volatility in inflation tax rates display greater volatility compared to the model with flexible prices with sticky prices tax rates and real government debt exhibit behavior similar to a random walk for government spending processes resembling periods of intermittent war and peace optimal policy displays extreme inflation volatility even when the degree of price rigidity is large as the variability in government spending increases smoothing tax distortions across states of nature becomes increasingly important and the shock absorber role of inflation is accentuated

trade strategy and revealed trade bias an evaluation for a small industrializing economy abstract the traditional classification of trade strategies into import substitution is and export promotion ep is based on the traditional two sector trade model in the context of a three sector model including nontradeables there is potentially greater analytical richness and apparently greater possibility of a wider range of ex ante trade strategies included among these possibilities is a mixed is ep strategy which generates a protradeable bias this paper investigates the properties of a general equilibrium model and the necessary commercial policy interventions required to bring about particular changes in relative prices detailed evidence on revealed trade regime biases within the tradeables good sectors and between tradeables and nontradeables is provided for barbados the evidence indicates that ex post classification of trade strategy may differ significantly from the ex ante or intended strategy and that use of partial equilibrium estimates of effective protection of tradeables alone is likely to be an inappropriate means of classifying trade strategies

the macroeconomic impact of development aid a critical survey the early literature explained aid s macroeconomic impact in the context of the dual gap model showing a clear link between aid and growth many now believe that the empirical evidence shows there to be no such relationship this paper critically reviews the different theoretical perspectives the dual gap model the savings debate recipient fiscal response and aid as dutch disease and the empirical debates on aid savings and growth the basis for denying a relationship between aid and growth is shown to be weak though more recent areas of research offer promising directions for future work

on the relevance of exchange rate regimes for stabilization policy this paper assesses the relevance of the exchange rate regime for stabilization policy using both fiscal and monetary policy we conclude that the exchange rate regime is irrelevant this is the case independently of the severity of price rigidities independently of asymmetries across countries in shocks and transmission mechanisms the only relevant conditions are on the mobility of labor and financial assets the results can be summarized with the claim that every currency area is an optimal currency area however with labor mobility or tradable state contingent assets additional policy instruments would be required to establish the irrelevance result

monetary policy in the open economy revisited the case for exchange rate flexibility restored abstract this paper revisits the sticky price pricing to market model of devereux and engel devereux m b engel c 2003 monetary policy in the open economy revisited price setting and exchange rate flexibility review of economic studies 70 4 765 783 in which fixed exchange rates are optimal even in the face of country specific nonmonetary shocks we show that this result hinges critically on the devereux engel model s prediction that international consumption levels are perfectly synchronized under flexible prices realistic modifications of the model that produce nonsynchronous consumption movements such as the presence of nontraded goods upset the fixed exchange rate prescription even in the absence of an expenditure switching role of exchange rate changes

tariffs terms of trade unemployment and the real exchange rate the less developed countries ldcs have been subjected to major exogenous shocks and drastic domestic policy changes in recent years these shocks include changes in the terms of trade and or a policy shift away from the pervasive protectionism of the previous decades the implementation of trade liberalization programs is likely to follow in many more developing countries a large body of theoretical and empirical literature has developed which attempts to analyze the consequences of these changes utilizing models which explicitly incorporate the main structural and institutional characteristics of the ldc economies the behavior of the real exchange rate defined in various ways but most commonly as the relative price of tradeables to non tradeables has been identified as being of central analytical and policy importance while the literature on this subject recognizes the key link between the real exchange rate and domestic wages the analytical models used generally suffer from serious limitations in terms of their characterization of the labor markets the models used in the literature can be categorized into two groups a flex price models that give rise to full employment and b models that assume full or partial wage rigidity thereby generating some form of unemployment conventional wisdom suggests that a rise in import tariffs or an improvement in the terms of trade would always lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate however it is shown by clague 3 and edwards and van wijnbergen 11 that the above result does not necessarily hold in more general models however these analyses were restricted to models with flexible wages wage rigidity is often ascribed to the existence of some form of wage indexation or other forms of government inter

effective aid how democracy allows development aid to improve the quality of life abstract research into foreign aid has mostly focused on its ability to affect economic i e gdp per capita growth conclusions have been mixed i consider aid s effectiveness differently by its ability to improve quality of life i find that though aid does not affect quality of life in the aggregate it is effective when combined with democracy and ineffective and possibly harmful in autocracies the results suggest that aid would be more effective if it were combined with efforts to encourage democratization

economic policy and the relative price of services in ldcs abstract low relative prices of nontraded services are a feature of developing economies recent explanations focus on structural issues such as factor endowments and returns to scale this paper argues that economic policy may also contribute to low ldc service prices in a three sector model with wage differentials financial repression unambiguously depresses both per capita real income and the price of nontraded goods in contrast to most current models tariffs and production subsidies can also depress nontraded goods prices

optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union we lay out a tractable model for the analysis of optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union the monetary authority sets a common interest rate for the union whereas fiscal policy is implemented at the country level through the choice of government spending in the presence of country specific shocks and nominal rigidities the policy mix that is optimal from the viewpoint of the union as a whole requires that inflation be stabilized at the union level by the common central bank whereas fiscal policy has a country specific stabilization role one beyond the efficient provision of public goods

the anarchy of numbers aid development and cross country empirics the recent literature contains many stories of how foreign aid affects economic growth aid raises growth in countries with good policies or with difficult economic environments or outside the tropics or on average but with diminishing returns the diversity of the results suggests that many are fragile seven important aid growth papers are tested for robustness using 14 minimally arbitrary tests deriving mainly from differences among the studies themselves this approach investigates the importance of potentially arbitrary specification choices while minimizing the arbitrariness in testing choices all of the results appear fragile especially to sample expansion

aid policies and growth comment in an extraordinarily influential paper craig burnside and david dollar 2000 p 847 find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal monetary and trade policies but has little effect in the presence of poor policies this finding has enormous policy implications the burnside and dollar 2000 henceforth bd result provides a role and strategy for foreign aid if aid stimulates growth only in countries with good policies this suggests that 1 aid can promote economic growth and 2 it is crucial that foreign aid be distributed selectively to countries that have adopted sound policies international aid agencies public policy makers and the press quickly recognized the importance of the bd findings this paper reassesses the links between aid policy and growth using more data the bd data end in 1993 we reconstruct the bd database from original sources and thus 1 add additional countries and observations to the bd data set because new information has become available since they conducted their analyses and 2 extend the data through 1997 thus using the bd methodology we reexamine whether aid influences growth in the presence of good policies given our focus on retesting bd we do not summarize the vast pre bd literature on aid and growth we just note that there was a long and inconclusive literature that was hampered by limited data availability debates about the mechanisms through which aid would affect growth and disagreements over econometric specification see gustav f papanek 1972 robert cassen 1986 paul mosley et al 1987 peter boone 1994 1996 and henrik hansen and finn tarp s 2000 review since bd found that aid boosts growth in good policy environments there have been a number of other papers reacting to their results including paul collier and jan dehn 2001 carljohan dalgaard and hansen 2001 patrick guillaumont and lisa chauvet 2001 hansen and tarp 2001 robert lensink and howard white 2001 and collier and dollar 2002 these papers conduct useful variations and extensions some of which had already figured in the pre bd literature such as introducing additional control variables using nonlinear specifications etc some of these papers confirm the message that aid only works in a good policy environment while others drive out the aid policy interaction term with other variables this literature has the usual limitations of choosing a specification without clear guidance from theory which often means there are more plausible specifications than there are data points in the sample we differentiate our paper from these others by not deviating from the bd specification thus we do not test the robustness of the results to an unlimited number of variations but instead maintain the bd methodology this paper conducts a very simple robustness check by adding new data that were unavailable to bd thus we expand the sample used over their time period and extend the data from 1993 to 1997 easterly department of economics new york university 269 mercer street new york ny 10003 center for global development and national bureau of economic research e mail william easterly nyu edu levine department of finance carlson school of management university of minnesota 321 19th avenue south minneapolis mn 55455 and national bureau of economic research e mail rlevine csom umn edu roodman center for global development 1776 massachusetts avenue nw washington dc 20036 e mail droodman cgdev org we are grateful to craig burnside for supplying data and assisting in the reconstruction of previous results without holding him responsible in any way for the work in this paper thanks also to francis ng and prarthna dayal for generous assistance with updating the sachs warner openness variable and to three anonymous referees craig burnside and henrik hansen for helpful comments 1 see for instance the world bank 1994 2001 2002 the u k department for international development 2000 president george w bush s speech march 16 2002 the announcement by the white house on creating the millennium challenge corporation white house 2002 as well as a washington post editorial february 9 2002 a financial times column by alan beattie march 11 2002 and the economist march 16 2002

growth in africa does the source of investment financing matter this paper examines empirical evidence for 11 sub saharan african countries on the relationship between economic growth and three principal sources of investment funds foreign aid foreign direct investment and domestic saving in light of the shortcomings of traditional cross section analyses the time series approach is used instead modern time series methods are rigorously applied beginning with unit root tests and followed by model specifications that reflect the revealed temporal behaviours of the variables in each of the 11 countries domestic saving seems to play a somewhat more important role in generating economic growth than foreign direct investment or foreign aid however the mixture of results across the 11 countries implies that in general it is not possible to rank one source of investment financing ahead of any other

the role of countercyclical monetary policy when firms set nominal prices in advance optimal monetary policy insulates aggregate output against shocks to demand it can do so however by following the constant money growth rule advocated by milton friedman it need not respond to the shocks in an actively countercyclical way in addition to the extent that output fluctuations are driven by shocks to supply money growth should be procyclical

a new approach to the allocation of aid among developing countries is the usa different from the rest summary this paper attempts to explain the factors that determine the geographical allocation of foreign aid its novelty is that it develops a rigorous theoretical model and conducts the corresponding empirical investigations based on a large panel dataset we run regressions for different major donors united states canada france italy japan united kingdom and multilateral organizations with the explicit objective of establishing whether the united states in light of its geopolitical hegemony behaves differently from others we find that all the donors respond to recipient need in their allocation of aid but that the united states puts less emphasis on this than the other donors with the exception of japan we also find that the united states puts more emphasis on donor recipient linkages than do the other donors suggesting that the united states attaches greater importance to issues of donor interest for example geopolitical commercial and other links with specific recipients

optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices this paper studies optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky product prices the theoretical framework is a stochastic production economy without capital the government finances an exogenous stream of purchases by levying distortionary income taxes printing money and issuing one period nominally risk free bonds the main findings of the paper are first for a miniscule degree of price stickiness i e many times below available empirical estimates the optimal volatility of inflation is near zero this result stands in stark contrast with the high volatility of inflation implied by the ramsey allocation when prices are flexible the finding is in line with a recent body of work on optimal monetary policy under nominal rigidities that ignores the role of optimal fiscal policy second even small deviations from full price flexibility induce near random walk behavior in government debt and tax rates third sluggish price adjustment raises the average nominal interest rate above the one called for by the friedman rule finally an interest rate feedback rule whereby the nominal interest rate depends on inflation and output fits well the data emanating from the ramsey economy however the fitted rule is not of the taylor type for the implied inflation coefficient is less than one and close to zero and the output coefficient is negative jel classification e52 e61 e63

aid instability as a measure of uncertainty and the positive impact of aid on growth this article contributes to the literature on aid and economic growth we posit that uncertainty measured as the instability of aid receipts will influence the relationship between aid and investment how recipient governments respond to aid and will capture the fact that some countries are especially vulnerable to shocks when we account for uncertainty which is negative and significant we find that aid has a significant positive effect on growth largely due to its effect on the volume of investment the finding that uncertainty of aid receipts reduces the effectiveness of aid is robust when the regression is estimated for the sub sample of african countries these findings hold although the effectiveness of aid appears weaker than for the full sample

politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid abstract critics of foreign aid programs have long argued that poverty reflects government failure in this paper i test predictions for aid effectiveness based on an analytical framework that relates aid effectiveness to political regimes i find that aid does not significantly increase investment nor benefit the poor as measured by improvements in human development indicators but it does increase the size of government the impact of aid does not vary according to whether recipient governments are liberal democratic or highly repressive but liberal political regimes and democracies ceteris paribus have on average 30 lower infant mortality than the least free regimes this may be due to greater empowerment of the poor under liberal regimes even though the political elite continues to receive the benefits of aid programs an implication is that short term aid targeted to support new liberal regimes may be a more successful means of reducing poverty than current programs

state dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs in such a setting optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy yet while widely discussed statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models this paper develops a new tractable theoretical state dependent pricing framework we use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand and the interest sensitivity of money demand

donor bias towards small countries an overlooked factor in the analysis of foreign aid and economic growth the consensus of the literature is that international cross sectional data do not reveal a stable relationship between foreign aid and economic growth a conclusion which weakens the case for giving aid however previous econometric analysis has not made allowance for the fact that larger countries grow faster but receive less aid in this paper it is demonstrated that when due allowance is made for the effects of country size a positive and significant relationship between aid and growth can be shown to exist

is foreign aid fungible the case of indonesia this paper considers whether foreign aid given for specific categories of expenditure is fungible among them and whether aid reduces tax effort by the recipient government models developed to analyze the fiscal relations among different levels of government in the united states are applied to analysis of the impact of foreign aid econometric analysis of data for indonesia reveals that aid is largely spent as the donors intended that aid does not lead to a reduction in tax effort and that aid is not diverted to nondevelopment current expenditures copyright 1990 by royal economic society

aid growth and devolution summary this paper examines whether the degree of fiscal decentralization in aid receiving countries matters in explaining aid effectiveness the decentralization theorem predicts that the devolution of powers should increase aid effectiveness since local decision makers are better informed about local needs thereby decentralization may also have reverse effects e g through coordination problems excessive regulation administrative costs and local capture we use panel data for up to 60 countries and find that aid contributes to economic growth in centralized developing economies whereas it is less effective or even harmful in decentralized countries the cases of indonesia the philippines and uganda support our findings our results imply that donor countries should carefully consider how the two development instruments foreign aid and decentralization interact

foreign aid and the question of fungibility this paper analyzes whether the foreign assistance provided for specific categories of expenditure is shifted among them contrary to the wishes of donors it also considers whether aid reduces the tax effort of recipient governments econometric results are presented for the dominican republic that show that the fungibility of aid has resulted in a thwarting of the intentions of donors an attempt is made to account for the observed differences in behavior of individual countries in altering expenditures copyright 1993 by mit press

the fungibility of u s military and non military assistance and the impacts on expenditures of major aid recipients abstract this paper examines the impact of u s military and non military assistance on the allocation of public and private sector spending for eight major recipients over the 1972 1987 period the model assumes that an aid recipient s effective post assistance budget constraint is a priori unknown and must be estimated two versions of the model are tested in version a the data is converted into real u s dollars using official exchange rates in version b the data is converted using purchasing power parity exchange rates provided by summers and heston 1991 major findings are the same for both versions u s aid is highly fungible with a significant portion channeled to the private sector where it finances current consumption relatively more than investment