involuntary unemployment and implicit contracts this paper provides an explanation of involuntary umemployment arising as a consequence of asymmetric information between firms and workers involuntary unemployment is defined as a situation where ex post gains to trade exist a model of labor contracts is developed where the allocations are not ex post optimal it is shown that inferiority of leisure is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of involuntary unemployment

unemployment and effort at work we measure the sensitivity of work effort to local labour market conditions using self reported non work at the workplace in the american time use survey atus 2003 12 non work at work is quantitatively significant and varies positively with local unemployment but in opposite directions at the extensive and intensive margins the fraction of workers reporting positive values declines with unemployment while time spent in non work conditional on any such time rises with unemployment the results speak to issues of labour hoarding efficiency wages and the cyclicality of labour productivity we also demonstrate a relationship between the incidence of non work and unemployment benefits in state data linked to the atus there are also pronounced occupational differences in the incidence and intensity of non work

option pricing when the variance changes randomly theory estimation and an application in this paper we examine the pricing of european call options on stocks that have vari ance rates that change randomly we study continuous time diffusion processes for the stock return and the standard deviation parameter and we find that one must use the stock and two options to form a riskless hedge the riskless hedge does not lead to a unique option pricing function because the random standard deviation is not a traded security one must appeal to an equilibrium asset pricing model to derive a unique option pricing function in general the option price depends on the risk premium associated with the random standard deviation we find that the problem can be simplified by assuming that volatility risk can be diversified away and that changes in volatility are uncorrelated with the stock return the resulting solution is an integral ofthe black scholes formula and the distribution function for the variance of the stock price we show that accurate option prices can be computed via monte carlo simulations and we apply the model to a set of actual prices

hymer and public policy in ldcs initially this paper was titled stephen hymer s influence on public policy in ldcs in an attempt to research this impossible subject i conducted a citation search in the ssci the ssci listed 442 citations in 192 different journals over the period 1977 to 1983 a count that places hymer in the top five writers on international business and the multinational enterprise over that period his writings were cited in journals devoted to law history philosophy sociology psychology political science geography business anthropology broadcasting peace research statistics migration and urban regional agricultural trade financial labor industrial and development economics they were cited in journals devoted to the study of africa asia latin america as well as europe australia new zealand and north america and they were cited by authors across the spectrum from arch conservative to radical political economists the breadth of discipline geography and viewpoint of the authors who found hymer s writings useful in their analysis reflects hymer s multidisciplinary approach to problems the originality of his insights the clarity of his thought and the forcefulness of his writing although hymer is best known for his work on the multinational enterprise mne he also was intensely concerned with problems of less developed countries ldcs and the public policies they might use to alleviate the problems arising from trade and foreign direct investment fdi in his analyses hymer started from his base in economics especially the economics of the mne but also used the insights of historical political and sociological analysis to illuminate these complex subjects in using this approach hymer may have fallen between two camps in the analysis of public policy issues in ldcs the pure economists who have often viewed him as a bright but misguided and ultimately fallen angel on the one side and the radical political economists who have viewed him as a rising if somewhat backward star on the other side instead of bridging the gap hymer may have fallen into it his insights cited but his conclusions discounted as faulty or half formed this is unfortunate since hymer writing in the 1960 s and early 1970 s speaks directly to many of the concerns of today and of the future the new international economic order the north south dialogue and the basic needs of those at the bottom of the income distribution in high income and lowincome countries alike hymer s writings addressed two major questions how best should a small developing country interact with the world economy through trade inward and outward fdi and technology licensing how best should such a country organize its internal economic activity to meet the needs of all its people especially those in the lower two thirds of the income distribution to understand hymer s approach to the analysis of these two questions and his contribution to public policy in ldcs it is useful to set them within the context of his background education and experience hymer was a canadian he grew up and received his first university degree in canada a country with a small open economy which largely exports raw materials and imports manufactured products and whose manufacturing energy and mining sectors are dominated by subsidiaries of mnes in many ways canada was and is akin to the ldcs and his interests naturally turned in their direction he was educated as an industrial organization economist at mcgill and mit his experience and education therefore gave him a knowledge of large multinational enterprises and the tools to analyze them after mit hymer worked in ghana where he saw professor school of business administration university of western ontario london ontario n6a 3k7 canada i am grateful for partial funding from the centre for international business studies and the fund for excellence u w o

the pricing of options on assets with stochastic volatilities one option pricing problem that has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of a european call on an asset that has a stochastic volatility this paper examines this problem the option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price it is found that the black scholes price frequently overprices options and that the degree of overpricing increases with the time to maturity one option pricing problem that has hitherto remained unsolved is the pricing of a european call on a stock that has a stochastic volatility from the work of merton 12 garman 6 and cox ingersoll and ross 3 the differential equation that the option must satisfy is known the solution of this differential equation is independent of risk preferences if a the volatility is a traded asset or b the volatility is uncorrelated with aggregate consumption if either of these conditions holds the risk neutral valuation arguments of cox and ross 4 can be used in a straightfoward way this paper produces a solution in series form for the situation in which the stock price is instantaneously uncorrelated with the volatility we do not assume that the volatility is a traded asset also a constant correlation between the instantaneous rate of change of the volatility and the rate of change of aggregate consumption can be accommodated the option price is lower than the blackscholes b s 1 price when the option is close to being at the money and higher when it is deep in or deep out of the money the exercise prices for which overpricing by b s takes place are within about ten percent of the security price this is the range of exercise prices over which most option trading takes place so we may in general expect the b s price to overprice options this effect is exaggerated as the time to maturity increases one of the most surprising implications of this is that if the b s equation is used to determine the implied volatility of a near the money option the longer the time to maturity the lower the implied volatility numerical solutions for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price are also examined the stochastic volatility problem has been examined by merton 13 geske 7 johnson 10 johnson and shanno 11 eisenberg 5 wiggins 16 and

productivity and unemployment over the business cycle abstract the low correlation between cyclical unemployment and productivity over the post war period hides a large sign switch in the mid 1980s from significantly negative the correlation became significantly positive using a search model of unemployment with nominal rigidities and variable labor effort i show that technology shocks can generate a positive unemployment productivity correlation whereas non technology shocks i e aggregate demand shocks tend to do the opposite in this context i identify two events that can quantitatively explain the increase in the correlation i a sharp drop in the volatility of non technology shocks in the mid 1980s and ii a decline in the response of productivity to non technology shocks which from procyclical became acyclical in the last 25 years

procyclical labor productivity and competing theories of the business cycle some evidence from interwar u s manufacturing industries we study the phenomenon of short run increasing returns to labor srirl in a sample of 10 interwar u s manufacturing industries our main findings are that srirl was common in the interwar period and that the pattern of srirl across industries was similar to that observed in the postwar period we argue that since presumably the depression was not caused by technical regress these findings are inconsistent with the claim of real business cycle theorists that srirl is in general due to procyclical technical shocks we propose tests for discriminating between two other leading explanations of srirl but find that our conclusions differ by industry

are workers paid their marginal products status is like coase s social costs a reciprocal phenomenon given that one person s gain in status can occur only at the expense of a loss in status for others and that workers are free to choose their coworkers it follows that the competitive wage structure within a firm must be one in which individual wage differences understate individual differences in marginal products the purpose of this paper is to examine a variety of empirical evidence that relates to this proposition about the firm s internal wage structure the paper is organized as follows section i briefly summarizes the theoretical considerations that govern competitive wage determination when status matters to people and firms are viewed as voluntary associations of workers section ii then confronts the predictions of section i by examining pay and productivity schedules for a group of sales occupations for which these schedules are relatively easily observed section ii also examines the relationship between wages and productivity for a sample of university professors an occupation in which individual productivity differences are for a variety of obvious reasons relatively more difficult to measure all of the evidence examined is consistent with the hypothesis that within firms wage rates vary substantially less than do individual productivity values section iii discusses additional observations and evidence that bear on this same hypothesis it suggests that the implicit market for status may strongly influence the ways in which firms are organized to carry out the tasks they perform section iv concludes by considering the claim that egalitarian internal wage structures arise because of equity considerations it argues that the concept of equity appears very closely linked to the concept of status and suggests a strategy for assigning monetaty value to the equity considerations that so often dominate public policy decisions

retrospectives the cyclical behavior of labor productivity and the emergence of the labor hoarding concept the concept of labor hoarding at least in its modern form was first fully articulated in the early 1960s by arthur okun 1963 by the end of the 20th century the concept of labor hoarding had become an accepted part of economists explanations of the workings of labor markets and of the relationship between labor productivity and economic fluctuations the emergence of this concept involved the conjunction of three key elements the fact that measured labor productivity was found to be procyclical rising during expansions and falling during contractions a perceived contradiction with the theory of the neoclassical firm in a competitive economy and a possible explanation based on optimizing behavior on the part of firms each of these three elements fact contradiction and explanation has a history of its own dating back to at least the opening decades of the twentieth century telling the story of the emergence of the modern labor hoarding concept requires recounting these three histories histories that involve the work of economists motivated by diverse purposes and often not mainly if at all concerned with the questions that the labor hoarding concept was ultimately used to address as a final twist to the story the long standing positive relationship between labor productivity and output in the us economy began to disappear in the late 1980s and during the great recession labor productivity rose while the economy contracted

the efficiency wage hypothesis applying a general model of the interaction between labor quantity and quality abstract the efficiency wage is analyzed in the context of a market for labor quality units the model is equivalent to that of a perishable one period form of firm specific human capital which is most efficiently financed by the employer indirectly through higher wages the hypothesis also assumes a labor market in which the quantity units have zero price i e labor earns no rent which can occur in the absence of unemployment only if the supply of some quality attribute is subject to constant costs on the intensive margin this constant cost condition is implicit in w a lewis original description of the traditional sector in a dual economy otherwise the zero rent assumption requires unemployment in which case it can not be used to explain the existence of unemployment the general applicability of the constant cost condition and of the efficiency wage hypothesis is questioned

diagnosing affine models of options pricing evidence from vix abstract affine jump diffusion models have been the mainstream in options pricing because of their analytical tractability popular affine jump diffusion models however are still unsatisfactory in describing the options data and the problem is often attributed to the diffusion term of the unobserved state variables using prices of variance swaps i e squared vix implied from options prices we provide fresh evidence regarding the misspecification of affine jump diffusion models as variance swap prices are affine functions of the state variables in a broader class of models that do not restrict the diffusion term of the state variables we apply the nonparametric methodology used by ait sahalia 1996b supplemented with bootstrap tests and other parametric tests to the s p 500 index options data from january 1996 to september 2008 we find that while the affine diffusion term of the state variables may contribute to the misspecification as the literature has suggested the affine drift of the state variables jump intensities and risk premiums are also sources of misspecification

variance swap with mean reversion multifactor stochastic volatility and jumps abstract this paper examines variance swap pricing using a model that integrates three major features of financial assets namely the mean reversion in asset price multi factor stochastic volatility sv and simultaneous jumps in prices and volatility factors closed form solutions are derived for vanilla variance swaps and gamma swaps while the solutions for corridor variance swaps and conditional variance swaps are expressed in a one dimensional fourier integral the numerical tests confirm that the derived solution is accurate and efficient furthermore empirical studies have shown that multi factor sv models better capture the implied volatility surface from option data the empirical results of this paper also show that the additional volatility factor contributes significantly to the price of variance swaps hence the results favor multi factor sv models for pricing variance swaps consistent with the implied volatility surface

wages productivity and work intensity in the great depression we show that u s manufacturing wages during the great depression were importantly determined by forces on firms intensive margins short run changes in work intensity and the longer term influence of potential productivity combined to influence real wage growth by contrast the external effects of unemployment and replacement rates had much less impact empirical work is undertaken against the background of a simple efficient bargaining model that embraces earnings employment hours of work and work intensity

why u s wage and employment behavior differs from that in britain and japan if a poll were to be conducted among american academic economists to select the most mystifying economic phenomenon of our time surely the sticky nominal wage rate would emerge at or near the top of the list the slow and partial response of the nominal wage rate to changes in aggregate nominal spending has been a central postulate of macroeconomic theory for the past 45 years from keynes general theory down to the standard postwar textbook keynesian paradigm to the more modern fixed wage price models of robert barro and herschel grossman i976 and edmond malinvaud i977 unwilling passively to accept nominal wage rigidity as an unexplained assumption many labour market theorists have followed the lead of costas azariadis i975 and martin baily i974 in building models to explain rigid wages and layoff unemployment as the rational outcome of a profit maximising calculus as i pointed out in an early critique of the azariadis baily model i976a their assumptions cannot explain cycles in employment but rather why workers would want fixed incomes i e a fixed wage rate and fixed employment soon thereafter barro i977 went one step further and argued that contract theory is a facade which cannot explain why workers would choose a rigid wage and variable employment in preference to the classical equilibrium quantity of employment that equates the marginal product of labour with the marginal value of time now an examination of the evidence has led me to the realisation that rigid wages cannot provide the underpinnings for a universally valid theory of the business cycle simply because wages are not universally rigid i document below with postwar quarterly data that the share of fluctuations in the manufacturing wage bill taking the form of nominal wage changes as compared to changes in hours worked is five to ten times greater in britain and japan than in

high school graduation performance and wages using data from the panel study of income dynamics and a proprietary sample of semiskilled production workers this paper investigates the reasons for the discontinuous increase in wages associated with graduation from high school i find a discontinuous decrease in workers propensities to quit or be absent however i do not find that high school graduates have a comparative advantage in production jobs requiring more training nor in either sample is there a discontinuous increase in required training associated with the jobs held by high school graduates the wage premium associated with graduation from high school appears to be procyclical falling during slumps periods in which employers are likely to be hoarding labor and in which quits and absences are least important to firms there is also some evidence suggesting that prior quits have a larger effect on the wages of high school graduates than on the wages of high school dropouts

incentives and wage rigidity with the growth of the literature on incentive compensation has come the belief by some that incentive pay may be less rigid than pay that is not designed to effect incentives some have gone so far as to argue that this may explain differences in unemployment rates across countries it is shown that there is no direct link between incentives and wage rigidity many compensation schemes that provide incentives have the reverse effect that is they tend to make wages more rigid than would be the case were incentives not an issue atall this paper explores the relationship between wage rigidity and the provision of incentives in a variety of circumstances this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

research note consumer addressability and customized pricing the increasing availability of customer information is giving many firms the ability to reach and customize price and other marketing efforts to the tastes of the individual consumer this ability is labeled as consumer addressability consumer addressability through sophisticated databases is particularly important for direct marketing firms catalog retailers such as l l bean and land s end credit card issuing banks and firms in the long distance telephone market we examine the strategic implications of consumer addressability on competition between database direct marketing firms we address questions such as in a competitive environment how should firms invest in addressability will future improvements in the degree of addressability increase or mitigate the intensity of competition between the firms will greater addressability always be beneficial for firms we model competition between two firms in a market where consumers differ on a horizontal attribute of product differentiation the market comprises consumers located on a linear attribute space and firms located at the ends of the line we represent the degree of addressability or the reach of a firm s database as the proportion of consumers at each point in the market who are in the firm s database consequently the firm can offer these consumers customized prices consumer addressability creates two effects that govern the competition between firms a surplus extraction effect because a firm might address a consumer who is not reached by its competitor and a competitive effect that is created by the set of consumers who can be addressed by both firms the key results of the paper pertain to when the addressability decision is endogenous when the extent of market differentiation or consumer heterogeneity in preferences for a product brand attribute as well as the incremental cost of addressability are sufficiently large firms make symmetric investments in equilibrium given high costs firms choose sufficiently low levels of addressability low addressability and high levels of market differentiation both help reduce price competition which facilitates symmetric choice of addressability by the firms in equilibrium however when market differentiation and the cost of incremental addressability become small firms face the prospect of destructive competition as a result they strategically differentiate in their choice of addressability to mitigate this competition interestingly even in the extreme case when incremental addressability is costless not every firm chooses full addressability in equilibrium this has useful implications for direct marketing given that the advances in information technology should improve the ability of firms to address their consumers it might indeed not be desirable for all direct marketing firms to indefinitely pursue greater addressability as costs of doing so decline the analysis also shows an interesting effect of market differentiation in addressable markets equilibrium profits can decrease with an increase in market differentiation when the marginal cost of addressability is sufficiently high finally we discuss the competitive outcome that would result when firms compete with addressable as well as uniform posted prices

stock price distributions with stochastic volatility an analytic approach we study the stock price distributions that arise when prices follow a diffusion process with a stochastically varying volatility parameter we use analytic techniques to derive an explicit closed form solution for the case where volatility is driven by an arithmetic ornstein ublenbeck or ar1 process we then apply our results to two related problems in the finance literature 1 options pricing in a world of stochastic volatility and 2 the relationship between stochastic volatility and the nature of fat tailes in stock price distributions article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

a theory of wage dynamics a dynamic equilibrium model of long term implicit labour contracts under incomplete but symmetric information is developed workers are assumed to be risk averse and of unknown ability or productivity risk neutral firms learn as do workers about each worker s productivity by observing the worker s output over time it is shown that equilibrium contracts provide for wages which never decline with age and increase only when the worker s market value increases above his current wage in addition to characterizing the equilibrium wage contract we also derive some of its implications for the behaviour of aggregate wages across various groups of workers these implications explain some findings in the recent empirical literature on ageearnings profiles in particular our model can explain why earnings may be positively related to experience even after controlling for productivity as some empirical studies have indicated

optimal labour contracts under asymmetric information an introduction the review of economic studies has instituted a new series of lectures to be given annually by a younger british economist at the association of university teachers of economics meetings the choice of lecturer is determined by a panel whose members are currently professors hahn mirrlees and nobay this paper is a revised version of the first lecture in the series it was presented at the aute meeting held at the university of surrey in april 1982 and was refereed in the usual way mak

jobless recoveries stagnation or structural change within the existing literature a number of competing explanations for jobless recoveries have emerged on the one hand there is evidence of dynamic structural change including offshoring globalization and technological advances that are resulting in the loss of middle skill routine employment other studies emphasize a less dynamic economy with slower growth reduced labor market fluidity a decline in startup activity and even economic stagnation this study exploits variation among u s states to assess the degree that stagnation and or important structural changes in the economy contribute to the recent phenomenon of jobless recoveries we find support for both the stagnation and structural change theories of jobless recoveries on the stagnation side we find evidence that lower startup rates are a significant predictor of jobless recoveries we also find evidence that links dynamic structural change to the jobless recovery phenomenon more specifically states experiencing a long run downward trend in the share of routine employment are more likely to experience a jobless recovery our results are consistent with the polarization theory where routine replacing technological advances permanently reduce demand for middle skill labor thus contributing to jobless recoveries jel e32 e24

mailing decisions in the catalog sales industry catalog sales are among the fastest growing businesses in the u s the most important asset a company in this industry has is its list of customers called the house list building a house list is expensive since the response rate of names from rental lists is low cash management therefore plays a central role in this capital intensive business this paper studies optimal mailing policies in the catalog sales industry when there is limited access to capital we consider a stochastic environment given by the random responses of customers and a dynamic evolution of the house list given the size of real problems it is impossible to compute the optimal solutions we therefore develop a heuristic based on the optimal solutions of simplified versions of the problem the performance of this heuristic is evaluated by comparing its outcome with an upper bound derived for the original problem computational experiments show that it behaves satisfactorily the methodology presented permits the evaluation of potential catalog ventures thus proving useful to entrepreneurs in this industry

work rules featherbedding and pareto optimal union management bargaining this article examines a model of semiefficient bargaining in which the union and the firm bargain over wages and various types of work rules the results are compared to the outcomes that are associated with fully efficient bargaining i e over wages and the level of employment and bargaining solely over wages

how to compute optimal catalog mailing decisions we develop estimate and test a response model of order timing and order volume decisions of catalog customers and derive a bayes rule for optimal mailing strategies the model integrates the when and how much components of the response incorporates the mailing decision of the firm and uses a bayesian framework to determine the optimal mailing rule for each catalog customer the bayes rule we propose for optimal mailing strategy allows for a broad set of objectives to be realized across the time horizon such as profit maximization customer retention and utility maximization with or without risk aversion we find that optimizing the objective function over multiple periods as opposed to a single period leads to higher expected profits and expected utility our results indicate that the cataloguer is well advised to send fewer catalogs than its current practice in order to maximize expected profits and utility

a near rational model of the business cycle with wage and price inertia this paper presents a model in which insignificantly suboptimal behavior causes aggregate demand shocks to have significant real effects the individual loss to agents with inertial price wage behavior is second order in terms of the parameter describing the shock while the effect on real economic variables is first order thus significant changes in business activity can be generated by anticipated money supply changes provided that some agents are willing to engage in nonmaximizing behavior which results in small losses

nonparametric estimation of state price densities implicit in interest rate cap prices based on a multivariate extension of the constrained locally polynomial estimator of ait sahalia and duarte 2003 we provide one of the first nonparametric estimates of probability densities of libor rates under forward martingale measures and state price densities spds implicit in interest rate cap prices the forward densities and spds depend significantly on the slope and volatility of libor rates and mortgage markets activities have strong impacts on the shape of the forward densities the spds exhibit a pronounced u shape as a function of future libor rates suggesting that the state prices are high at both extremely low and high interest rates which tend to be associated with recessions and periods of high inflation respectively our results provide nonparametric evidence of unspanned stochastic volatility and suggest that the unspanned factors could be partly driven by activities in the mortgage markets the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies all rights reserved for permissions please e mail journals permissions oxfordjournals org oxford university press

the 2003 isms practice prize winner optimizing rhenania s direct marketing business through dynamic multilevel modeling dmlm in a multicatalog brand environment we introduce dynamic multilevel modeling dmlm to a multicatalog brand environment to determine the optimal frequency size and customer segmentation of direct marketing activities this optimization method leverages multicatalog brand effects including the utilization of prior customer ordering behavior maximization of customer value and customer share and economies of scale and scope in printing and mailing this enhancement of the original dmlm approach is called dynamic multidimensional marketing dmdm with dmlm alone rhenania a german direct mail order company turned its catalog mailing practices around and consequently rose from the number 5 to the number 2 market position the dmlm approach was so effective that two major competitors could be bought out improvements provided by dmdm were threefold more efficient resource allocation across all catalog brands more accurate customer microsegmentation and more effective reactivation presently the company s target is to transform single brand customer relationships into two or three brand relationships with higher revenue per customer as a consequence the rhenania group s performance was decoupled from the overall market trend

a closed form garch option valuation model this paper develops a closed form option valuation formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a garch p q process that can be correlated with the returns of the spot asset it provides the first readily computed option formula for a random volatility model that can be estimated and implemented solely on the basis of observables the single lag version of this model contains heston s 1993 stochastic volatility model as a continuous time limit empirical analysis on s p500 index options shows that the out of sample valuation errors from the single lag version of the garch model are substantially lower than the ad hoc black scholes model of dumas fleming and whaley 1998 that uses a separate implied volatility for each option to fit to the smirk smile in implied volatilities the garch model remains superior even though the parameters of the garch model are held constant and volatility is filtered from the history of asset prices while the ad hoc black scholes model is updated every period the improvement is largely due to the ability of the garch model to simultaneously capture the correlation of volatility with spot returns and the path dependence in volatility article published by oxford university press on behalf of the society for financial studies in its journal the review of financial studies

a behavioral explanation for nominal wage rigidity during the great depression nominal wages in manufacturing were left unchanged by the large decline in nominal demand that marked the first two years of the great depression this rigidity in nominal wages is explained using the tools of the behavioral theory of the firm the emphasis is on the reasons firms changed their decision rules linking fluctuations in final sales to changes in nominal wages

employment with asymmetric information in an economy without informational and other distortions entrepreneurs and workers can write labor contracts that support a pareto optimal allocation of resources this paper is an attempt to characterize contracts when enterpreneurs are better informed about the state of nature than are their workers asymmetric information generally results in a suboptimal allocation of both risk and worker effort in particular if consumption and leisure are perfect substitutes employment will be less than fully pareto optimal in all but the most favorable states of nature

the economic crisis from a neoclassical perspective abstract this paper assesses the 2007 2009 recession using neoclassical business cycle theory i find that the 2007 2009 u s recession differs substantially from other postwar u s recessions and also from the 2008 recession in other countries in that lower labor input accounts for virtually all of the decline in income and output in the united states while lower productivity accounts for much of other u s recessions and the 2007 2009 recession in other countries i also find that existing classes of models including financial market imperfections models do not explain the u s recession this is because the 2007 2009 recession is almost exclusively related to what appear to be labor market distortions that drive a wedge between the marginal product of labor and the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure a topic about which current classes of financial imperfection models are largely silent i discuss future avenues for developing this class of models and i consider alterna

involuntary unemployment in dynamic contract equilibria in this paper the set of bilateral wage contracts in a dynamic model with observable effort is characterized our first result demonstrates that bond payments and severance pay do not increase the size of the set of incentive compatible contracts second we show that unobservable effort can lead to voluntary unemployment this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

nominal wage stickiness and aggregate supply in the great depression building on earlier work by eichengreen and sachs we use data for 22 countries to study the role of wage stickiness in propagating the great depression recent research suggests that monetary shocks transmitted internationally by the gold standard were a major cause of the depression accordingly we use money supplies and other aggregate demand shifters as instruments to identify aggregate supply relationships we find that nominal wages adjusted quite slowly to falling prices and that the resulting increases in real wages depressed output these findings leave open the question of why wages were so inertial in the face of extreme labor market conditions

unemployment and the efficiency wage hypothesis there has been much recent discussion of the reasons why prices in certain markets and in particular in labour markets may not adjust to eliminate excess supply the absence of speedy adjustment of prices is an essential feature of the recent models of disequilibrium macroeconomics but for the most part no explanation for this absence is provided from within those models one explanation that has been around in the literature for some time and has been receiving increasing attention recently is the efficiency wage hypothesis initially applied to developing economies see leibenstein i957 it has more recently been adapted to developed economies by weiss i 980 and used in the context of a keynesian macroeconomic model by hart i 980 similar concepts have been applied to the credit market by stiglitz and weiss i98i the purpose of the present paper is to explore further the conditions under which the notion of an efficiency wage is applicable and can provide an explanation of involuntary unemployment the essential feature of the efficiency wage hypothesis is that the productivity of a firm s employees increases as their wage is increased at least over an economically relevant part of its range if the wage paid by the firm is denoted by w the number of employees by l and the productivity of each employee by p w where p w o then the effective labour force of the firm e can be represented by

work incentives hierarchy and internal labor markets this paper argues that contracts with payment based on a ranking of employee performance can provide performance incentives even under asymmetric information that prevents payment based on individual performance only being enforceable such contracts also fit with five features of labor markets that have aroused considerable interest 1 hierarchical wage structures 2 internal promotion 3 wage rates that rise with seniority and experience more than productivity 4 the variance of earnings increasing with experience and 5 wage rates attached to jobs rather than individuals with differentials set by administrative procedures rather than by reference to external market wages

on the number of state variables in options pricing in this paper we investigate the methodological issue of determining the number of state variables required for options pricing after showing the inadequacy of the principal component analysis approach which is commonly used in the literature we adopt a nonparametric regression technique with nonlinear principal components extracted from the implied volatilities of various moneyness and maturities as proxies for the transformed state variables the methodology is applied to the prices of s p 500 index options from the period 1996 2005 we find that in addition to the index value itself two state variables approximated by the first two nonlinear principal components are adequate for pricing the index options and fitting the data in both time series and cross sections

excess labor and the business cycle this paper compares the medoff fay estimates of labor hoarding during troughs which are based on data from manufacturing plants with aggregate estimates of excess labor on hand the two sets of estimates seem consistent which provides a strong argument in favor of the excess labor hypothesis this is one of the few examples in macroeconomics where a hypothesis has been so strongly confirmed using detailed micro data this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item this abs this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

optimal selection for direct mail direct marketing mail is a growing area of marketing practice yet the academic journals contain very little research on this topic the most important issue for direct marketers is how to sample targets from a population for a direct mail campaign although some selection methods are described in the literature there seems to be not a single paper discussing the analytical and statistical aspects involved the objective of this paper is to introduce a comprehensive methodology for the selection of targets from a mailing list for direct mail at least theoretically this methodology leads to more efficient selection procedures than the existing ones the latter are not based on an optimal selection strategy whereas we explicitly take the profit function into account by equating marginal costs and marginal returns we determine which households should receive a mailing in order to maximize expected profit in the empirical part we show that our methodology has great predictive accuracy and generates higher net returns than traditional approaches

semiparametric versus parametric classification models an application to direct marketing in this paper we are concerned with estimation of a classification model using semiparametric and parametric methods benefits and limitations of semiparametric models in general and of manski s maximum score method in particular are discussed the maximum score method yields consistent estimates under very weak distributional assumptions the maximum score method can very easily be used in situations where it is mare serious to make one kind of classification error than another in this paper we use a so called threshold crossing model to discriminate between credit card holders and nonholders the estimated parameters of the logit model differ significantly from the estimates of maximum score given an loss function maximum score performs better than the logit model

bargaining power fear of disagreement and wage settlements theory and evidence from u s industry the paper develops and estimates a theoretical model of wage determination and union nonunion wage differentials in order to overcome the institutional ctiticisms of the formal bargaining literature the paper generalizes the nash zeuthen harsanyi model by linking the solution to the institutional concepts of bargaining power and fear or cost of disagreement and by making the outcome depend not only on endogenous but also on exogenous factors an operational specification of bargaining power and fear of disagreement allows the model to be estimated with data covering twelve companies and trade unions during the period from mid 1950 s to the late 1970 s while giving limited support to the nashzeuthen harsanyi solution the empirical analysis indicates that the bargaining outcome usually deviates from the nash zeuthen harsanyi point and in accordance with the institutionalist claim that it varies significantly with exogenous factors contrary to the traditional labor economics view the results do not support the general conclusion that the bargaining solution lies on the marginal revenue product curve of labor instead the relevant coefficients suggest that for many firms and unions the outcome might be better characterized by the efficient contract vertical contract curve

theoretical foundations for sticky wages abstract the paper compares three different types of theoretical explanation of sticky wages they are implicit contracts efficiency wage models and insider outsider models it then reconsiders keynes rationale for sticky wages which focuses on relative wage issues finally the paper considers possible directions for future research

excessive wages and the return on capital received wisdom suggests that excessive wages defined as the part of real wages that do not follow labour productivity developments are adversely associated with the return on capital this paper argues that excessive wages and profits are better thought of as responses to changes in the economic political and institutional environment and there is no a priori reason for a negative relationship between them we thus investigate whether there is a causal effect of excessive wages on capital return using aggregate panel data for 19 oecd countries for the period 1970 2000 we account for the endogeneity of excessive wages by exploiting variations in institutional and labour market characteristics our main finding is that excessive wages do not affect the return on capital this result remains robust to alternative empirical specifications and to alternative definitions of profitability and excessive wages and questions the standard advice by international economic organizations on wage moderation copyright the author 2011 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

option values under stochastic volatility theory and empirical estimates abstract this paper numerically solves the call option valuation problem given a fairly general continuous stochastic process for return volatility statistical estimators for volatility process parameters are derived and parameter estimates are calculated for several individual stocks and indices the resulting estimated option values do not differ dramatically from black scholes values in most cases although there is some evidence that for longer maturity index options black scholes overvalues out of the money calls in relation to in the money calls

a model of the natural rate of unemployment since the publication of edmund phelps volume the new macroeconomics has treated the labor market as a dynamic process of rational search by unemployed workers for available vacancies wages are viewed as at least potentially flexible though free contracting between workers and firms may lead to fixed wages in the short run imperfect information is a crucial element of the theory for it implies both a need for contracting and a need for rational search rather than simple market clearing in each period a positive rate of frictional unemployment may exist in equilibrium denoted as the natural rate this unemployment is due to the frictions in the search process and imperfections in information rather than to any deficiency in aggregate demand milton friedman defined the natural rate as the level that would be ground out by the walrasian system of general equilibrium equations provided there is embedded in them the actual structural characteristics of the labor and commodity markets including market imperfections stochastic variability in demands and supplies the cost of gathering information about job vacancies and labor availabilities the costs of mobility and so on p 8 this paper reexamines the micro foundations of the natural rate in a model of labor market equilibrium in which turnover flows and imperfect information are explicitly considered workers may quit their current jobs to enter the unemployment pool in order to search among available vacancies for a more preferred position firms economize on turnover by an appropriate wage policy

increasing returns and the foundations of unemployment theory current approaches to macroeconomic theory divide roughly into two basic schools of thought one approach typically associated with rational expectations views the economy as basically at or near walrasian market clearing equilibrium in which case it becomes very difficult to explain away convincingly the undeniable persistence at times of involuntary unemployment another approach views the underemployed economy as being in a state of temporary fixed price disequilibrium in which case aside from having to repress suspicions that the essence of effective demand failure might not have to do with prices fixed at wrong values there is a lot of rationalising to be done about why profitable adjustments are so slow this paper argues that something like an internally consistent theory of steady state involuntary unemployment is possible and even plausible the cornerstone of this third approach is increasing returns to scale which blocks unemployed agents from breaking out of a low level equilibrium trap unless there is overall coordination or stimulation a simple model is presented which contains the basic ideas

equilibrium long term labor contracts the paper presents a labor market equilibrium analysis of implicit contract theory a two period single good model is used to propose consistent notions of labor market equilibrium for long term employment contracts both when labor is specialized and cannot move in the second period and when there is free mobility without costs the result that long term contracts emerge in equilibrium even without mobility costs is novel and contrary to common beliefs the main features of equilibrium are that risk neutral firms will insure risk averse workers against downside risk yielding downward rigid wages wages are not fully rigid as in earlier work on contract theory because workers may quit and wages have to be bid up to retain them the firm gets its return of the insurance deal by paying less than marginal product in the first period the resulting equilibrium is second best and lies between productive efficiency and full insurance workers gain from long term contracts in comparison to spot markets whereas owners may not in the model with specialized skills there exist transfer payments such that both parties are better off within an equilibrium with long term contracts

the agent agents problem payment by relative output this paper begins an investigation into the incentive problems at a firm when the effort of the employer and the employees combines to determine final output the major conclusion is that optimal reward functions in this circumstance will in general value the performance of a worker relative to that of his peers the paper thus joins a growing literature associated with the work of lazear and rosen on rank order tournaments

understanding real business cycles he 1 960s were a time of great optimism for macroeconomists many economists viewed the business cycle as dead the keynesian model was the reigning paradigm and it provided all the necessary instructions for manipulating the levers of monetary and fiscal policy to control aggregate demand inflation occurred if aggregate demand was stimulated excessively and unemployment arose if demand was insufficient the only dilemma faced by policymakers was determining the most desirable location along this inflation unemployment tradeoff or phillips curve the remaining intellectual challenge was to establish coherent microeconomic foundations for the aggregate behavioral relations posited by the keynesian framework but this was broadly regarded as a detail that should not deter policymakers in their efforts to stabilize the economy the return of the business cycle in the 1970s after almost a decade of economic expansion and the accompanying high rates of inflation came as a rude awakening for many economists it became increasingly apparent that the basic keynesian framework was not the appropriate vehicle for understanding what happens during a business cycle nor did it seem capable of providing the empirically correct answers to questions involving changes in the economic environment or changes in monetary or fiscal policy the view that keynesian economics was an empirical success even if it lacked sound theoretical foundations could no longer be taken seriously the essential flaw in the keynesian interpretation of macroeconomic phenomenon was the absence of a consistent foundation based on the choice theoretic framework of microeconomics two important papers one by milton friedman 1968 and the other by robert lucas 1976 forcefully demonstrated examples of

firm leverage consumer demand and employment losses during the great recession this article argues that firms balance sheets were instrumental in the transmission of consumer demand shocks during the great recession using micro level data from the u s census bureau we find that establishments of more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger employment losses in response to declines in local consumer demand these results are not driven by firms being less productive having expanded too much prior to the great recession or being generally more sensitive to fluctuations in either aggregate employment or house prices likewise at the county level we find that counties with more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger declines in employment in response to local consumer demand shocks accordingly firms balance sheets also matter for aggregate employment our results suggest a possible role for employment policies that target firms directly besides conventional stimulus

the nairu unemployment and monetary policy this paper examines the precision of conventional estimates of the nairu and the role of the nairu and unemployment in forecasting inflation the authors find that although there is a clear empirical phillips relation the nairu is imprecisely estimated forecasts of inflation are insensitive to the nairu and there are other leading indicators of inflation that are at least as good as unemployment this suggests deemphasizing the nairu in public discourse about monetary policy and instead drawing on a richer variety of leading indicators of inflation