voter turnout and fiscal policy abstract in this paper we examine whether shocks in voting costs can impact elected representatives quality defined as the capacity to fund projects at the lowest cost using data on french municipalities and local variations in seasonal infections incidence as a shock on voting cost we estimate that higher incidence lowers voter turnout increases subsidies obtained by a municipality decreases harmful financial decisions and increases the municipality s investment in infrastructure we present a model where these predictions would hold in particular for municipalities with a high base level of turnout

compulsory voting turnout and government spending evidence from austria abstract we study a unique quasi experiment in austria where compulsory voting laws are changed across austria s nine states at different times analyzing state and national elections from 1949 to 2010 we show that compulsory voting laws with weakly enforced fines increase turnout by roughly 10 percentage points however we find no evidence that this change in turnout affected government spending patterns in levels or composition or electoral outcomes individual level data on turnout and political preferences suggest that these results occur because the impacts of compulsory voting on turnout are larger among those who are non partisan who have low interest in politics and who are uninformed

pro poor targeting and accountability of local governments in west bengal a commonly alleged pitfall of decentralization is that poverty socio economic inequality and lack of political competition allow local elites to capture local governments this hypothesis is empirically examined using a longitudinal sample of 89 west bengal villages concerning targeting of credit agricultural input kits employment programs and fiscal grants spanning the period 1978 98 higher poverty land inequality and low caste composition of the poor was associated with negligible adverse effects on targeting of private goods to the poor within villages but with lower employment generation out of allotted funds and significantly lower allocation of resources to the village as a whole political competition or literacy levels among the poor were not systematically related to targeting

did the commodity price spike increase rural poverty evidence from a long run panel in bangladesh we assess the effects of the dramatic rise in agricultural commodity prices during 2007 2008 on income dynamics and poverty among rural households in bangladesh a unique panel data set allows us to put the effects of recent events in the context of long run trends in income and poverty we use data from a nationally representative longitudinal survey of rural households in bangladesh collected in four waves in 1988 2000 2004 and 2008 nargis and hossain nargis n hossain m 2006 income dynamics and pathways out of rural poverty in bangladesh 1988 2004 agric econ 35 425 435 analysed income dynamics and poverty incidence for the first three waves finding a declining trend in both the incidence and severity of poverty aided in particular by human capital development and off farm employment opportunities we update and extend the analysis to include data collected in 2008 at the height of a spike in agricultural prices we find that the price of a balanced food basket increased by more than 50 during 2000 2008 while household income rose only 15 as a result the incidence and severity of rural poverty in bangladesh sunk to pre 2000 levels during 2004 2008 thus the price spikes in 2007 2008 helped push an additional 13 million people into poverty in rural bangladesh moreover we find that the determinants of poverty have not been time invariant in particular agricultural production which had previously been associated with a higher incidence of poverty served as a hedge against higher food prices during 2004 2008

a methodology for measuring food poverty applied to kenya abstract this paper proposes a new way of establishing a food poverty line taking into account regional food preferences and prices it uses this poverty line to derive a food poverty measure which satisfies the desirable fundamental properties of such measures and has the additional advantage of being additively decomposable the measurement of food poverty is further generalized to heterogeneous groups of households facing different sets of relative prices and exhibiting different food preferences finally the above methodology is applied to the empirical estimation of food poverty among kenyan smallholders and the results contrasted with those obtained by two other methods

targeting the poor using roc curves abstract this paper compares the performance of targeting indicators to identify the poor if the roc curve of one indicator lies above that of another the first indicator dominates the second for all social welfare functions based on the two types of errors involved in targeting the method is applied to bangladesh fifteen indicators are used including location land ownership education occupation demographics age family structure and housing the analysis is applied at the national urban and rural levels with two poverty lines education dominates land ownership in urban areas the ranking is reversed in most cases in rural areas

the impact of the 2005 2010 rice price increase on consumption in rural bangladesh this article studies the impact of the rice price increase between 2005 and 2010 on consumption in rural bangladesh using the household income and expenditure survey hies data we compare net rice buyers and sellers to self sufficient households to identify the effect of rice price changes on household consumption of rice nonrice food and nonfood items we employ a difference in differences did technique our findings indicate that the surge in domestic rice prices between 2005 and 2010 reduced the nonrice food consumption of net rice buyer households by 7 compared to the households who are self sufficient in rice production however it did neither affect their rice nor their nonfood consumption in contrast while we find no significant effect of rice price increases on the rice consumption of net rice sellers we observe a 9 increase in their nonrice food consumption in such situation a subsidy on low quality rice may be effective in fulfilling the nutritional requirement of low income households

interdependency of natural gas network and power system security this paper proposes an integrated model for assessing the impact of interdependency of electricity and natural gas networks on power system security the integrated model incorporates the natural gas network constraints into the optimal solution of security constrained unit commitment the natural gas network is modeled by daily and hourly limits on pipelines sub areas plants and generating units the application of fuel diversity e g generating units with fuel switching capability is presented as an effective peak shaving strategy for natural gas demand which could hedge price volatilities of natural gas and electric power the proposed model can be used by a vertically integrated utility for the commitment and dispatch of generating units and the allocation of natural gas for the next day utilization the proposed model can also be used for measuring the security of social services by modeling the interdependency of natural gas and electric power system infrastructures if the proposed model is used by gencos gas constraints will be submitted to electricity markets as energy constraints illustrative examples show the impact of natural gas supply infrastructure on the economic operation of a vertically integrated utility the examples also discuss the impact of generating units with fuel switching capability on the power system security when the supply of natural gas is limited

land contingent poverty alleviation schemes abstract target groups for rural poverty alleviation schemes in south asia and elsewhere have often been identified in terms of their landholding class with landless or near landless households being the intended beneficiaries this paper offers a quantitative approach to the analysis and design of land contingent poverty alleviation schemes an application to bangladesh suggests that when income is generally unobserved landholding class is a good instrument for targeting poverty relief in that it is strongly correlated with the informationally feasible allocations which minimize aggregate poverty for a given budget it is however far from being a perfect instrument even under otherwise ideal conditions the maximum feasible reduction in poverty which is attainable by relying solely on land based targeting is substantially less than that attainable with perfect income information indeed the poverty alleviation impact of domestically financed and revenue neutral transfers across 10 landholding classes in rural bangladesh could also be achieved without targeting by simply giving every household a lump sum payment equivalent to 10 of mean rural income political restrictions on tax powers or errors made in administration will further reduce the gains from land contingent targeting greater impact on poverty for a given budgetary cost will require more precise targeting within landholding classes

robustness of subjective welfare analysis in a poor developing country madagascar 2001 the authors analyze the subjective perceptions of poverty in madagascar in 2001 and their relationship to objective poverty indicators they base their analysis on survey responses to a series of subjective perception questions the authors extend the existing empirical methodology for estimating subjective poverty lines on the basis of categorical consumption adequacy questions based on this methodology they calculate the household specific subjective poverty lines and compare the poverty profiles derived from different subjective welfare questions the results show that the aggregate poverty measures derived from consumption adequacy questions accord quite well with the poverty measures based on objective poverty lines the subjective welfare analysis can be used in poor developing countries for evaluating socioeconomic and distributional impacts of various policy interventions

food energy intake and cost of basic needs measuring poverty in bangladesh past estimates of poverty in bangladesh based on the food energy intake method found decreasing poverty over time and similar poverty in urban and rural areas using the cost of basic needs method we find increasing poverty for 1984 92 and higher poverty in rural than urban areas examples of lack of consistency in past estimates are highlighted a method is introduced to assess the gap narrowing and re ranking impacts on poverty measures of changes in poverty lines the article also estimates the marginal impact of household characteristics such as household size education occupation and land ownership on the probability of being poor

does direct democracy reduce the size of government new evidence from historical data 1890 2000 using historical data for all swiss cantons from 1890 to 2000 we estimate the causal effect of direct democracy on government spending the main innovation in this paper is that we use fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity and instrumental variables to address the potential endogeneity of institutions we find that the budget referendum and lower costs to launch a voter initiative are effective tools in reducing canton level spending however we find no evidence that the budget referendum results in more decentralized government or a larger local government our instrumental variable estimates suggest that a mandatory budget referendum reduces the size of canton spending between 13 and 19 percent a 1 percent lower signature requirement for the initiative reduces canton spending by up to 2 percent

microfinance and poverty a macro perspective we test the hypothesis that microfinance reduces poverty at the macro level using cross country and panel data which are constructed by the microfinance information exchange data on microfinance institutions mfis and the world bank data taking account of the endogeneity associated with mfis loans we show that a country with higher mfis gross loan portfolio per capita tends to have lower levels of poverty indices contrary to recent micro evidence our results suggest that microfinance significantly reduces poverty at macro level and thus reinforce the case for channeling funds from development finance institutions and governments of developing countries into mfis

gas electricity coordination in competitive markets under renewable energy uncertainty as climate concerns low natural gas prices and renewable technologies increase the electric power sector s dependence on natural gas fired power plants operational and investment models for gas and electric power systems will need to incorporate the interdependencies between these two systems to accurately capture the impacts of one on the other currently few hybrid gas electricity models exist this paper reviews the state of the art for hybrid gas electricity models and presents a new model and case study to illustrate a few potential coupling effects between gas and electric power systems specifically the proposed model analyzes the optimal operation of gas fired power plants in a competitive electricity market taking into consideration gas purchases gas capacity contracting and residual demand uncertainty for the generation company due to renewable energy sources

strategic public policy around population thresholds abstract political economists have long maintained that politicians respond to both re election and financial incentives this article contributes to the latter literature by analysing whether when and how local office holders respond to the economic incentives embedded in exogenously imposed population thresholds leading to an increased number and remuneration of local politicians building on insights from the urban economics and public finance literatures we argue that local politicians may strategically adjust fiscal and housing policies to stimulate in migration when approaching a population threshold where their remuneration increases using data from all 589 belgian municipalities over the period 1977 2016 our results confirm that approaching important population thresholds causes lower local tax rates and the granting of additional building permits particularly for apartments these policy changes occur early in the election cycle and at least for housing policy are restricted to incumbent mayors themselves expecting to benefit from crossing the population threshold

the welfare cost of means testing pensioner participation in income support we estimate parametric and semi parametric binary choice models of benefit take up by british pensioners and use a revealed preference argument to infer the cash equivalent value of disutility arising from stigma or complexity of the claims process these implicit costs turn out to be relatively small averaging about 3 4 per week across income support recipients using the foster greer thorbecke measure of poverty among pensioners we find that allowing for implicit claim costs incurred by benefit recipients raises the measured degree of poverty by not more than 13 copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

why have urban poverty and income inequality increased so much argentina 1991 2001 abstract this article analyzes the trends in income inequality and poverty among argentine households during the nineties we assess the effect of changes in labor force participation unemployment educational levels and returns to individual characteristics on income inequality and poverty by using a microsimulation approach we found that unemployment accounts for a large part of the increase in income inequality and poverty experienced in the past decade changes in labor force participation had an equalizing effect over the whole period while changes in the returns to workers sociodemographic characteristics could be associated with a small increase in income inequality with respect to poverty unemployment affected negatively the proportion of households below the poverty line amplified the poverty gap and increased the severity of poverty in contrast changes in labor force participation are associated with a reduction in the poverty rate

regional transfer multipliers a series of discontinuities in the allocation mechanism of federal transfers to municipal governments in brazil allow us to identify the causal effect of public spending on local labour markets using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design rdd our estimates imply a cost per job of about 8 000 us dollars per year and a local income multiplier around two the effect comes mostly from employment in services and is more pronounced among less financially developed municipalities

do political parties matter evidence from u s cities are cities as politically polarized as states and countries no is the answer from our regression discontinuity design analysis which shows that whether the mayor is a democrat or a republican does not affect the size of city government the allocation of local public spending or crime rates however there is a substantial incumbent effect for mayors we investigate three mechanisms that could account for the striking lack of partisan impact at the local level and find the most support for tiebout competition among localities within metropolitan areas

income dynamics and pathways out of rural poverty in bangladesh 1988 2004 bangladesh has made considerable progress in alleviating poverty in the recent past using data from a nationally representative longitudinal survey of rural households in bangladesh conducted in three waves in 1988 2000 and 2004 this article relates the dynamics of rural poverty reduction to the structural shift in income generation mechanism from farm to nonfarm activities changing household factor endowments and the adoption of improved agricultural technologies over time 1 the findings show that the occupational shift from the farm to the nonfarm sector such as trade business and services as well as the expansion of cultivated areas through tenancy enhance income growth geographic mobility overseas migration in particular makes a significant contribution to income growth as well the reduction in poverty appears to be vitally dependent on the enhancement of the endowment of human and physical capital that augments the poor households capability to better exploit income generating opportunities and place the households on a sustainable route out of poverty

measuring energy poverty in japan 2004 2013 abstract this paper first examines energy or fuel poverty in japan from 2004 to 2013 especially around the time of the 2011 great east japan earthquake geje to analyze the issue the paper employs various poverty and vulnerability measures with the assistance of our unique dataset the results indicate the aggravation of energy poverty among lower income and vulnerable households during the past decade resulting from both the escalation of energy prices and lowering of income the analysis also employs a new decomposition technique and identifies the explanatory factors associated with the increase in energy poverty these results suggest there were major changes in the forces driving the increase in energy poverty before and after the geje after 2011 income alleviates energy poverty in japan with energy prices becoming the main driving factor

the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the distribution of household welfare and poverty in rural kenya1 this study estimates the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the welfare of a sample of rural kenyan households the usual first order welfare approximation formula is extended to a second order formula that allows for supply and demand responses to the price change results show that many rural households are not affected greatly by the price change and there are about as many gainers as losers however these full sample results mask important differences across regions welfare gains generally take place in major production areas while losses are in areas where most households are net buyers of maize semiparametric methods are used to investigate the relationship between income and the size of the welfare effect and poverty dominance techniques are applied to study the impacts of the maize price increase on rural poverty

microdeterminants of consumption poverty growth and inequality in bangladesh using household data from five successive national surveys the author analyzes the microdeterminants of and changes in consumption poverty growth and inequality in bangladesh from 1983 to 1996 education demographics land ownership occupation and geographic location all affect consumption and poverty the gains in per capita consumption associated with many of these household characteristics tend to be stable over time returns to demographics variables in household size have the greatest impact on growth perhaps because of improving employment opportunities for women education in urban areas and land in rural areas contribute most to measures of between group inequality location takes second place in both urban and rural areas the author introduces the concept of conditional between group inequality existing group decompositions of the gini index along one variable do not control for other characteristics correlated with that variable conditional between group ginis avoid this pitfall he also shows how to use unconditional and conditional between group ginis for simulating policies

a theory of participatory democracy based on the real case of porto alegre participatory democracy is a process of collective decision making that combines elements from both direct and representative democracy citizens have the power to decide on policy proposals and politicians assume the role of policy implementation the aim of this paper is to understand how participatory democracy operates and to study its implications over the behavior of citizens and politicians and over the final policy outcomes to this end we explore a formal model inspired by the experience of participatory budgeting implemented in the brazilian city of porto alegre that builds on the model of meetings with costly participation by osborne et al 2000 meetings with costly participation american economic review 90 927 943

estimating utility consistent poverty lines with applications to egypt and mozambique abstract a fundamental premise of absolute poverty lines is that they represent the same level of utility through time and space disturbingly a series of recent studies in middle and low income economies show that even carefully derived poverty lines rarely satisfy this premise this article proposes an information theoretic approach to estimating cost of basic needs cbn poverty lines that are utility consistent applications to date illustrate that utility consistent poverty measurements derived from the proposed approach and those derived from current cbn best practices often differ substantially with the current approach tending to systematically overestimate underestimate poverty in urban rural zones

decentralization of governance and development all around the world in matters of governance decentralization is the rage even apart from the widely debated issues of subsidiarity and devolution in the european union and states rights in the united states decentralization has been at the center stage of policy experiments in the last two decades in a large number of developing and transition economies in latin america africa and asia the world bank for example has embraced it as one of the major governance reforms on its agenda for example world bank 2000 burki perry and dillinger 1999 take also the examples of the two largest countries of the world china and india decentralization has been regarded as the major institutional framework for the phenomenal industrial growth in the last two decades in china taking place largely in the nonstate nonprivate sector india ushered in a landmark constitutional reform in favor of decentralization around the same time it launched a major program of economic reform in the early 1990s on account of its many failures the centralized state everywhere has lost a great deal of legitimacy and decentralization is widely believed to promise a range of benee ts it is often suggested as a way of reducing the role of the state in general by fragmenting central authority and introducing more intergovernmental competition and checks and balances it is viewed as a way to make government more responsive and efe cient technological changes have also made it somewhat easier than before to provide public services like electricity and water supply relatively efe ciently in smaller market areas and the lower levels of government have now a greater ability to handle certain tasks in a world of rampant ethnic cone icts and separatist movements decentralization is also regarded as a way of diffusing social and political tensions and ensuring local cultural and political autonomy these potential benee ts of decentralization have attracted a very diverse range

on the coverage of public employment schemes for poverty alleviation abstract the cost effectiveness of public employment as a means of poverty alleviation depends on policy design choices concerning coverage and wage rates the choice is between schemes which aim for wide coverage at potentially low wages and schemes which ration participation so that more beneficiaries can escape poverty conditions are derived for ranking stylized policy alternatives in terms of a broad class of poverty measures the preferred policy is shown to depend on the budget level administrative cost the initial wage distribution and the policy maker s aversion to poverty empirical simulations for bangladesh data generally support wide coverage for distributionally sensitivity poverty measures but limited coverage for other measures

land and power theory and evidence from chile many employment relationships concede rents to workers depending on the political institutions the presence of such rents allows employers to use the threat of withdrawing them to control their workers political behavior such as their votes in the absence of secret ballot we examine the effects of the introduction of the secret ballot in chile in 1958 on voting behavior before the reforms localities with more pervasive patron client relationships tended to exhibit a much stronger support for the right wing parties traditionally associ ated with the landed oligarchy after the reform however this difference across localities completely disappeared jel d72 n46 o13 o15 o17

estimating marginal returns to medical care evidence from at risk newborns a key policy question is whether the benefits of additional medical expenditures exceed their costs we propose a new approach for estimating marginal returns to medical spending based on variation in medical inputs generated by diagnostic thresholds specifically we combine regression discontinuity estimates that compare health outcomes and medical treatment provision for newborns on either side of the very low birth weight threshold at 1500 grams first using data on the census of us births in available years from 1983 2002 we find that newborns with birth weights just below 1500 grams have lower one year mortality rates than do newborns with birth weights just above this cutoff even though mortality risk tends to decrease with birth weight one year mortality falls by approximately one percentage point as birth weight crosses 1500 grams from above which is large relative to mean infant mortality of 5 5 just above 1500 grams second using hospital discharge records for births in five states in available years from 1991 2006 we find that newborns with birth weights just below 1500 grams have discontinuously higher charges and frequencies of specific medical inputs hospital costs increase by approximately 4 000 as birth weight crosses 1500 grams from above relative to mean hospital costs of 40 000 just above 1500 grams under an assumption that observed medical spending fully captures the impact of the very low birth weight designation on mortality our estimates suggest that the cost of saving a statistical life of a newborn with birth weight near 1500 grams is on the order of 550 000 in 2006 dollars

consistent poverty comparisons and inference building upon the cost of basic needs cbn approach an integrated approach to making consumption based poverty comparisons is presented this approach contains two principal modifications to the standard cbn approach the first permits the development of multiple poverty bundles that are utility consistent the second recognizes that the poverty line itself is a random variable whose variation influences the degree of confidence in poverty measures we illustrate the empirical importance of these two methodological changes for the case of mozambique with utility consistency imposed estimated poverty rates tend to be systematically higher in rural areas and lower in urban areas we also find that the true confidence intervals on the poverty estimates those incorporating poverty line variance tend to be considerably larger than those that ignore poverty line variance finally we show that these two methodological changes interact specifically we find that imposing utility consistency on poverty bundles tends to tighten confidence intervals sometimes dramatically on provincial poverty estimates we conclude that this revised approach represents an important advance in poverty analysis the revised approach is straightforward and directly applicable in empirical work

optimal non linear income taxation for the alleviation of income poverty there has been much discussion recently of structuring tax and transfer programs to ensure that resources go to the poor with minimal leaks to the nonpoor the poor have no incentive to earn income with 100 percent marginal tax rates but how high or low the marginal rate of taxation should be and how they should vary with income is a complex issue and opinions vary social security schemes that withdraw benefits represent an extremely high effective marginal tax rate other schemes call for relatively low marginal tax rates at the bottom of the income distribution which tax transfer schedule does most to reduce poverty the issue is one of optimal nonlinear income taxation the authors show that one of the key theoretical results of the welfarist literature is overturned if it is desirable for everybody to work the optimal marginal tax rate on the very poorest individuals is strictly negative they argue that the nonwelfarist perspective points toward lower marginal tax rates in the lower part of the income distribution than does the welfarist perspective but numerical simulations suggest that the effect is of limited quantitative significance using conventional functional forms and parameter values optimal marginal tax rates on the poor are in the 60 70 percent range

elected or appointed how the nomination scheme of the city manager influences the effects of government fragmentation abstract empirical research on the causal effect of government fragmentation derives diverse results one reason for this diversity might be that studies are typically settled in a variety of institutional environments to assess the extent to which the local political system might shape the effects of fragmentation this study measures the causal effect of a change in the nomination scheme of the city manager on the council size effect i combine a regression discontinuity design with a difference in differences approach in a large panel dataset of german municipalities the study finds that when the manager is appointed by council there is no significant council size effect but that there is a negative effect when the manager is elected by voters for those expenditure categories over which the manager has the most discretion these findings suggest that the nature of the political system does indeed matter

poverty and basic needs fulfilment in africa during structural change evidence from cote d ivoire abstract much attention is given in the literature to the evolution of social indicators during periods of structural adjustment and economic reform this paper argues that these processes are not distribution neutral from the point of view of basic needs fulfilment and that hence the focus should not be on aggregate indicators but on the distribution of beneficiaries of social services and changes in this distribution evidence is presented for cote d ivoire during the second half of the 1980s a period of intense structural change which shows that the poorest absorbed the bulk of the decline in basic needs fulfilment as a result of structural change this was the case for almost all aspects of basic needs and occurred regardless of the overall trend in the social indicators

the causal effect of coalition governments on fiscal policies evidence from a regression kink design proportional election systems are widespread across countries and often lead to coalition governments this creates interest in how the form of government single party or coalition governments causally influences fiscal policies it is difficult to estimate this causal effect empirically because the form of government is not randomly assigned to political units i overcome this problem by using a regression kink design which exploits that there is a slope change in the treatment probability at the 50 vote share of the strongest party this method is applied to a large panel data set of german local governments i find that contrary to the theoretical prediction coalition governments significantly decrease expenditures

security constrained unit commitment with ac constraints in a restructured power market the independent system operator iso executes the security constrained unit commitment scuc program to plan a secure and economical hourly generation schedule for the day ahead market this paper introduces an efficient scuc approach with ac constraints that obtains the minimum system operating cost while maintaining the security of power systems the proposed approach applies the benders decomposition for separating the unit commitment uc in the master problem from the network security check in subproblems the master problem applies the augmented lagrangian relaxation lr method and dynamic programming dp to solve uc the subproblem checks ac network security constraints for the uc solution to determine whether a converged and secure ac power flow can be obtained if any network violations arise corresponding benders cuts will be formed and added to the master problem for solving the next iteration of uc the iterative process will continue until ac violations are eliminated and a converged optimal solution is found in this paper a six bus system and the ieee 118 bus system with 54 units are analyzed to exhibit the effectiveness of the proposed approach

bidding strategies with fuel supply uncertainty in auctions of long term energy call options this work develops a stochastic optimization model for the creation of a bidding strategy for a generator in an energy call option auction similar to brazil s i e where the bidder can offer both the premium and the strike price the objective of the model is to maximize the bidder s competitiveness while ensuring that the project s target rate of return is achieved with a given probability for example 95 the problem s complexity is compounded by uncertainties in fuel supply and the need to switch between fuels the generators face the conundrum of bidding a single strike price to cover the expenses generated by using multiple types of fuels we address the problem of finding bidding strategies which taking into account uncertainty in fuel supply and risk constraints set the combination of strike price and option premium that ensure a desired risk adjusted return for greenfield dual fuel thermal plants

impact of natural gas system on risk constrained midterm hydrothermal scheduling this paper studies the impact of natural gas ng contracts and constraints on a genco s midterm risk constrained hydrothermal scheduling problem the ng contracts and constraints are modeled as a set of linear equations the proposed model utilizes the stochastic price based unit commitment pbuc the pbuc hourly solution considers uncertainties of market prices for energy and ancillary services uncertainties of natural water inflows and random ng infrastructure interruptions in monte carlo scenarios illustrative examples analyze the genco s risk levels when considering midterm schedules for generating units target payoffs and usages of water inflow ng and other thermal resources simulation results show that a genco s midterm schedules and financial risks could be impacted significantly with the consideration of ng contracts and constraints

measuring changes in poverty a methodological case study of indonesia during an adjustment period analysis of the effects of policy changes on the poor is often hindered by the difficulties inherent in measuring poverty and comparing levels of poverty before and after policy changes this article outlines two techniques which can overcome many of these measurement problems stochastic dominance conditions which can facilitate a robust poverty ranking of distributions of living standards and a decomposable poverty index which allows measured changes in aggregate poverty to be disaggregated into their various components such as the changes among population subgroups and growth and redistributive components these techniques can be applied to a wide range of indicators of economic well being and poverty lines and to assumptions about the poor the approaches are illustrated using household survey data from indonesia before and after external shocks and the subsequent structural adjustment program in the mid 1980s the study finds that favorable initial conditions and pro poor pattern of growth enabled indonesia to maintain its momentum in poverty alleviation during the period

measurement and determinants of rural poverty household consumption patterns and food poverty in rural sudan abstract a logit model and engel curves are used to study the determinants of food poverty and composition of household consumption among the tenant farmers of the rahad scheme in sudan where land is equally distributed the data support the permanent income hypothesis whereas engel s assumption of declining food shares with increased total spending did not hold for the present sample the logit analysis provides strong evidence for the important influences of better access to productive assets other than land smallersized families higher non farm earnings and farming experience on reducing the probability of food poverty on the scheme policies directed towards the provision of better family planning education extension increased on and off farm employment and improved infrastructure for higher labour mobility can make for effective poverty alleviation programmes in this sector

food poverty profile applied to kenyan smallholders that can be used to test conflicting hypotheses this paper analyzes data from the first kenyan integrated rural survey irs i household expenditure data collected by the central bureau of statistics to estimate the magnitude distribution of and factors associated with food poverty among kenyan small farmers the analysis uses a new methodology with three improvements over previous empirical studies 1 food poverty is estimated using an additively decomposable measure that allows poverty to be distributed among population subgroups 2 the food poverty line is based on observed dietary preferences in response to regional food prices and 3 the food poverty measure is adjusted to use regional food poverty lines without sacrificing its theoretical properties or decomposability this paper consists of two main parts section ii reviews the methodology underlying the setting of the regional food poverty line on the basis of a detailed integrated rural survey of kenyan smallholders the cost of food consumption corresponding to the recommended dietary allowance rda of calories is computed since this food poverty line was calculated on the basis of the observed diet consumed it presumably reflects the prevailing regional food preferences and prices faced by households consuming around the calorie rda level the next part of section ii presents a food poverty measure that in addition to satisfying the major fundamental properties of such measuresis decomposable and allows regional food poverty deprivation to be estimated

does the size of the legislature affect the size of government evidence from two natural experiments this paper makes use of regression discontinuity designs to estimate the effect of the number of legislators on the size of government the results indicate a negative effect i e the larger the size of the legislature the smaller is the size of government this runs counter to conventional wisdom one potential explanation is that more legislators can better control a budget maximizing bureaucracy i present evidence that is consistent with the proposed mechanism

food poverty profile and decomposition applied to ghana abstract a new procedure for deriving a food poverty line and estimating a decomposable poverty measure is applied to the 1974 1975 ghana household budget survey a food poverty profile is constructed which estimates the relative contributions of regional and socioeconomic variables to overall food poverty the incidence of food poverty is found to be more prevalent in 1 rural areas and locations close to the sahel and 2 households with many members and illiterate female or self employed heads comparisons of least cost diets and observed diets incorporating tastes suggest that households exercise food preferences which have relatively high costs

gas generation and wind power a review of unlikely allies in the united kingdom and ireland no single solution currently exists to achieve the utopian desire of zero fossil fuel electricity generation until such time it is evident that the energy mix will contain a large variation in stochastic and intermittent sources of renewable energy such as wind power the increasing prominence of wind power in pursuit of legally binding european energy targets enables policy makers and conventional generating companies to plan for the unique challenges such a natural resource presents this drive for wind has been highly beneficial in terms of security of energy supply and reducing greenhouse gas emissions however it has created an unusual ally in natural gas this paper outlines the suitability and challenges faced by gas generating units in their utilisation as key assets for renewable energy integration and the transition to a low carbon future the single electricity market of the republic of ireland and northern ireland and the british electricity transmission trading agreement market are the backdrop to this analysis both of these energy markets have a reliance on gas generation matching the proliferation of wind power the unlikely and mostly ignored relationship between natural gas generation and wind power due to policy decisions and market forces is the necessity of gas to act as a bridging fuel this review finds gas generation to be crucially important to the continued growth of renewable energy additionally it is suggested that power market design should adequately reward the flexibility required to securely operate a power system with high penetrations of renewable energy which in most cases is provided by gas generation

how robust is a poverty profile comparison of poverty such as when poverty is greatest typically matter far more for policy choices than do aggregate measures of poverty such as how many people are deemed poor the authors examine alternative methods for constructing poverty profiles focusing on their internal consistency and appropriateness for guiding policy none is perfect but some methods appear to be preferable to others when the aim is to inform policies for fighting absolute consumption poverty a case study on indonesia reveals that the country s regional and sectoral poverty profile is highly sensitive to some aspects of measurement but quite robust to others

effects of irrigation induced technological change in bangladesh rice production this paper evaluates the welfare implications of the irrigation induced technological change in rice production based on the conceptual framework of hayami and herdt and using a modified formulation of the problem the analytical model used incorporates demand and supply shifts provides exact measures of changes in consumers and producers surpluses and examines the implications for distributive justice in terms of impacts on incidence and severity of poverty and inequality in income distribution the results of the analysis suggest that irrigation induced technological change would significantly promote distributive justice

the impact of coffee certification on small scale producers livelihoods a case study from the jimma zone ethiopia what is the impact of product certification on small scale farmers livelihoods to what extent does the participation of ethiopian small scale coffee farmers in certified local cooperative structures improve their socioeconomic situation to answer these questions this article employs household data of 249 coffee farmers from six different cooperatives collected in the jimma zone of southwestern ethiopia in 2009 findings show that the certification of coffee cooperatives has in total a low impact on small scale coffee producers livelihoods mainly due to 1 low productivity 2 insignificant price premium and 3 poor access to credit and information from the cooperative differences in production and organizational capacities between the local cooperatives are mirrored in the extent of the certification benefits for the smallholders good cooperatives have reaped the benefits of certification whereas bad ones did not fare well in this regard the cooperative effect overlies the certification effect

electricity and natural gas interdependency comparison of two methodologies for coupling large market models within the european regulatory framework power generation growth based on natural gas fired power plants ngfpps has lead to increasing interactions between electric power and natural gas industries more companies are progressively and simultaneously participating as big players in both markets however each company has traditionally been settled in one side holding a particular competitive advantage electric power generation companies mainly know how to operate their generation assets whereas gas companies mainly know how to manage their gas supply contracts and make use of often regulated gas assets multi product energy companies have even created independent departments which decisions are usually taken uncoordinatedly in any case companies or departments usually support their decision making process in mathematical tools which represent each market with detail this paper presents two methodologies for coupling two interdependent electricity and gas market models formulated as optimization problems each methodology fulfills different department wishes the electricity perspective methodology maximizes electricity market profits after calculating equivalent gas contracts with the gas market model in contrast the gas perspective methodology minimizes gas operation costs after obtaining the relationship between the marginal revenue and the gas consumption with the electricity market model this coordinated solution would allow companies to obtain synergies resulting in a competitive advantage over other companies that operate uncoordinatedly in both markets

freely disposable time a time and money integrated measure of poverty and freedom summary this paper develops tests and discusses a metric for livelihood assessment that integrates cash flow and time use households it expresses how much time the household adults have left after satisfying the household s basic needs e g for food sleep care consumables and leisure this freely disposable time fdt may be put to any use available and allowed in the local context such as above basic leisure work to acquire above basic consumer goods or investments in the future such as education or soil conservation thus fdt represents people s freedoms and a key condition for any out of poverty strategy the fdt methodology is illustrated with a number of characteristic livelihood strategies and tested on peri urban farming livelihoods in india and some typical dutch households the fdt outcomes methodology strengths and limitations are compared with those of an allied discretionary time indicator paired time money indicators and purely monetary e g income or expenditure indicators of poverty and welfare

sectoral growth and poverty alleviation a multiplier decomposition technique applied to south africa abstract how does an increase in a sector s output affect poverty alleviation in this paper a multiplier decomposition for a socioeconomic system represented by a social accounting matrix sam is used to study this linkage the decomposition applied to south africa reveals that growth in agriculture services and some manufacturing sectors can alleviate poverty for the black african population for sectoral growth to be effective however the need for appropriate skill acquisition for the poor must be addressed directly only long term policies geared towards improving both economic growth and the human capital stock of the poor can lead to significant poverty alleviation

poverty alleviation in mozambique a multi market analysis of the role of food aid abstract the use of food aid in poverty alleviation programs has been hampered by two problems the inability to target to households in need and the disincentive effects on agriculture in this paper we present econometric estimates of in almost ideal demand system aids for households in maputo mozambique and develop a multi market model to show that in maputo imported yellow maize is not only self targeting but that owing to a combination of the low cross price elasticity with locally produced staples particularly white maize and cross border trade in food products the disincentive effects on domestic agriculture have been negligible

why have some indian states done better than others at reducing rural poverty the unevenness of the rise in rural living standards in the various states of india since the 1950s allowed the authors to study the causes of poverty they modeled the evolution of average consumption and various poverty measures using pooled state level data for 1957 91 they found that poverty was reduced by higher agricultural yields above trend growth in nonfarm output and lower inflation rates but these factors only partly explain relative success and failure in reducing poverty initial conditions also mattered states that started the period with better infrastructure and human resources with more intense irrigation greater literacy and lower infant mortality rates had significantly greater long term rates of consumption growth and poverty reduction by and large the same variables that promoted growth in average consumption also helped reduce poverty the effects on poverty measures were partly redistributive in nature after controlling for inflation the authors found that some of the factors that helped reduce absolute poverty also improved distribution and none of the factors that reduced absolute poverty had adverse impacts on distribution in other words there was no sign of tradeoffs between growth and pro poor distribution

poverty transition and persistence in ethiopia 1994 2004 summary this study analyzes the persistence of poverty in both rural and urban areas in ethiopia during 1994 2004 the key finding is that households move frequently in and out of poverty but the difficulty of exiting from poverty like the chance of avoiding slipping back increases with the time spent in that state and varies considerably between male and female headed households our results imply that it is important to design anti poverty policies both to hinder households from slipping into extreme poverty and to minimize the length of the poverty spell for households once they have fallen into it

electoral reform and trade offs in representation we examine the effect of electoral institutions on two important features of representation that are often studied separately policy responsiveness and the quality of legislators theoretically we show that while a proportional electoral system is better than a majoritarian one at representing popular preferences in some contexts this advantage can come at the price of undermining the selection of good politicians to empirically assess the relevance of this trade off we analyze an unusually controlled electoral reform in switzerland early in the twentieth century to account for endogeneity we exploit variation in the intensive margin of the reform which introduced proportional representation based on administrative constraints and data on voter preferences a difference in difference analysis finds that higher reform intensity increases the policy congruence between legislators and the electorate and reduces legislative effort contemporary evidence from the european parliament supports this conclusion

one kind of freedom poverty dynamics in post apartheid south africa abstract a 1993 south african living standards survey documented the legacy of apartheid in the form high levels of inequality and human insecurity drawing on a 1998 re survey of households in the 1993 study this paper explores whether this legacy has been superseded or whether apartheid s end has been only one kind of freedom that has left households in a poverty trap from which they cannot escape after proposing a theoretically grounded dynamic poverty typology that distinguishes stochastic from structural poverty transitions the paper goes on to estimate that significant numbers of the south african poor are potentially trapped in a structural poverty trap and lack the means to escape poverty over time

do better paid politicians perform better disentangling incentives from selection the wage paid to politicians affects both the choice of citizens to run for office and the performance of those who are appointed first if skilled individuals shy away from politics because of higher opportunities in the private sector an increase in politicians pay may change their mind second if the re election prospects of incumbents depend on their in office deeds a higher wage may foster performance we use data on all italian municipal governments from 1993 to 2001 and test these hypotheses in a quasi experimental setup in italy the wage of mayors depends on population size and sharply rises at different thresholds we apply a regression discontinuity design to the only threshold that uniquely identifies a wage increase 5 000 inhabitants exploiting the existence of a two term limit we further disentangle the composition from the incentive component of the effect of the wage on performance our results show that a higher wage attracts more educated candidates and that better paid politicians size down the government machinery by improving efficiency importantly most of this effect is driven by the selection of competent politicians rather than by the incentive to be re elected

poverty in bangladesh measurement decomposition and intertemporal comparison this article using the methodology developed by foster greer and thorbecke to measure and decompose poverty provides estimates of the levels of poverty in rural and urban areas in bangladesh it investigates in the context of bangladesh the most powerful effect of poverty in terms of a shortfall in food for daily calorie intake by the poor it provides intertemporal comparison of poverty and its decomposition among subgroups it also makes comparisons between the results obtained in this study with those currently available the results of the study show a significant improvement in poverty situations in rural areas from 1982 to 1986 the article also discusses the policy implications of its findings

a model of constructing the poverty line abstract this paper proposes a model which defines the poverty line as that level of expenditure at which all caloric and nutrient shortfalls are eliminated where requirements with respect to these are tailored to the age sex occupation characteristics of each household the methodology avoids all the allegations of subjectivity and conceptual circularity levelled against the traditional methods an application of the model to the nss data for indian punjab demonstrates the computational simplicity and easy identifiability of the poverty line

does head start improve children s life chances evidence from a regression discontinuity design this paper exploits a new source of variation in head start funding to identify the program s effects on health and schooling in 1965 the office of economic opportunity oeo provided technical assistance to the 300 poorest counties to develop head start proposals the result was a large and lasting discontinuity in head start funding rates at the oeo cutoff for grant writing assistance we find evidence of a large drop at the oeo cutoff in mortality rates for children from causes that could be affected by head start as well as suggestive evidence for a positive effect on educational attainment i introduction head start was established in 1965 as part of the war on poverty to provide preschool health and other social services to poor children age three to five and their families and currently serves over 900 000 children each year at a cost of around 7 billion hhs 2006 this paper provides new evidence on the effects of the head start program on schooling and health by drawing on a new source of variation in program funding spe

flows funds and the complexity of deprivation using concepts from ecological economics for the study of poverty abstract poverty has been increasingly conceptualized as being multidimensional involving deprivation in many dimensions of life this paper discusses issues and implications of multidimensional poverty by adopting concepts commonly used in ecological economics in particular poverty is approached as an irreducible complex phenomenon for which many legitimate but non equivalent descriptions exist issues of social and technical incommensurability are illustrated for different meanings and measurement types of poverty georgescu roegen s flow fund framework is interpreted informed by the capability approach of amartya sen the paper argues that a predominant focus on flows as a proxy to analyze poverty represents rather a short term perspective on access to satisfiers to fulfill particular needs contrary to that focusing on valued funds may provide useful information for the analysis of capabilities that persons and societies might pursue in the long term furthermore it is argued that strong poverty alleviation needs to adopt analytical tools that can deal with non trade off cases improvements in one poverty dimension cannot always compensate for the deterioration of other poverties this implies to rethink the usefulness of aggregate multidimensional poverty indices as well as the predominant use of income measures

the political resource curse this paper studies the effect of additional government revenues on political corruption and on the quality of politicians both with theory and data the theory is based on a political agency model with career concerns and endogenous entry of candidates the data refer to brazil where federal transfers to municipal governments change exogenously at given population thresholds allowing us to implement a regression discontinuity design the empirical evidence shows that larger transfers increase observed corruption and reduce the average education of candidates for mayor these and other more specific empirical results are in line with the predictions of the theory jel d72 d73 h77 o17 o18

meetings with costly participation an empirical analysis we analyse a firm s decision to participate in public meetings which determine regulation using data from the mid atlantic surf clam and ocean quahog fishery we find that firms with a preference for extreme policies are much more likely to participate in public meetings than firms with a preference for moderate policies we also find that participation rates are higher for larger closer and more influential firms these results are of interest for several reasons voluntary meetings with costly participation are ubiquitous as an institution for resource allocation examples include faculty meetings parent teacher association meetings and condominium association meetings moreover the requirement that regulators allow and encourage public participation is an almost universal feature of the u s regulatory process 1 yet despite their importance meetings with costly participation are little studied and basic questions about them are unanswered who goes does participation vary with observable characteristics do meeting participants represent the interested population our analysis of the mid atlantic clam fishery answers these questions large nearby extremists participate in meetings with costly participation it is clear that these findings improve our understanding of voluntary participation in costly meetings and hence of most regulatory decisions taken in the u s however they also suggest 1 the administrative procedure act requires that all u s federal regulatory agencies shall give interested persons an opportunity to participate in the rule making through submission of written data views or arguments with or without the opportunity for oral presentation title 5 u s code section 553 c 1988 edition in corrosion proof fittings v environmental protection agency 1991 the supreme court showed its willingness to require that public opinion be adequately consulted in this case the court vacated proposed regulation because the environmental protection agency prematurely ended public hearings and deprived the public of sufficient opportunity to comment on analyse and influence the regulatory proceedings in this case public participation is mandated by the toxic substances control act rather than the administrative procedure act

the effect of direct democracy on income redistribution evidence for switzerland there is an intensive dispute in political economics about the impact of institutions on income redistribution while the main focus is on comparison between different forms of representative democracy the influence of direct democracy on redistribution has attracted much less attention according to theoretical arguments and previous empirical results government policies of income redistribution are expected to be more in line with median voter preferences in direct than in representative democracies in this paper we find that institutions of direct democracy are associated with lower public spending and revenue particularly lower welfare spending and broad based income and property wealth tax revenue moreover we estimate a model which explains the determinants of redistribution using panel data provided by the swiss federal tax office from 1981 to 1997 and a cross section of representative individual data from 1992 while our results indicate that less public funds are used to redistribute income and actual redistribution is lower inequality is not reduced to a lesser extent in direct than in representative democracies for a given initial income distribution this finding might well indicate the presence of efficiency gains in redistribution policies

democracy redistribution and political participation evidence from sweden 1919 1938 in this paper we compare how two different types of political regimes direct versus representative democracy redistribute income toward the relatively poor segments of society after the introduction of universal and equal suffrage swedish local governments are used as a testing ground since this setting offers a number of attractive features for a credible impact evaluation most importantly we exploit the existence of a population threshold which partly determined a local government s choice of democracy to implement a regression discontinuity design the results indicate that direct democracies spend 40 60 percent less on public welfare our interpretation is that direct democracy may be more prone to elite capture than representative democracy since the elite s potential to exercise de facto power is likely to be greater in direct democracy after democratization

direct democracy and local public finances under cooperative federalism this paper exploits the introduction of the right of referenda at the local level in the german state of bavaria in 1995 to study the fiscal effects of direct democracy in the first part of the paper we establish the relationship between referenda activity and fiscal performance by using a new dataset containing information on all 2500 voter initiatives between 1995 to 2011 this selection on observables approach however suffers from obvious endogeneity problems in this application the main part of the paper exploits population dependent discontinuities in the signature and quorum requirements of referenda to implement a regression discontinuity design rdd to safeguard against co treatments that might affect fiscal outcomes simultaneously at the same thresholds we validate our results by extending the rdd approach to a difference in discontinuity did design by studying direct legislation in an archetypical cooperative federation as germany our paper extends the literature to a novel institutional setting the results indicate that in our setting and in contrast to most of the evidence from switzerland and the us direct democracy causes an expansion of local government budgets

hourly electricity demand response in the stochastic day ahead scheduling of coordinated electricity and natural gas networks this paper studies the role of hourly economic demand response in the optimization of the stochastic day ahead scheduling of electric power systems with natural gas transmission constraints the proposed coordinated stochastic model referred to as egtran considers random outages of generating units and transmission lines and random errors in forecasting the day ahead hourly loads the monte carlo simulation is applied to create multiple scenarios for representing the coordinated system uncertainties the nonlinear natural gas network constraints are linearized and incorporated into the stochastic model numerical results demonstrate the benefits of applying the hourly economic demand response for enhancing the scheduling coordination of natural gas and electricity networks it is demonstrated that electricity demand response would offer a less volatile hourly load profile and locational marginal prices and less dependence on natural gas constraints for the optimal operation of electric power systems the proposed model for egtran could be applied by grid operators for the hourly commitment and dispatch of power system units

agricultural wages in bangladesh what do the figures really show using new data and a different model palmer jones 1993 has questioned the conclusions of boyce and ravallion 1991 concerning the evolution over time of agricultural wages in bangladesh i argue that palmer jones s model is unconvincing and that the main conclusions of boyce and ravallion are far more robust than he suggests wages respond sluggishly to rice prices bangladesh s limited agricultural growth has not raised the real wage rate which was on a downward trend for most of the 1960s and 1970s the mid 1980s saw higher real wages though this cannot yet be deemed a reversal of the previous trend

consumption and poverty in tanzania in 1976 and 1991 a comparison using survey data abstract the paper tests the hypothesis that given the significant decline of the tanzanian economy in the early 1980s and the mediocre performance in the post 1986 adjustment period household real incomes should be lower and the level of poverty should be higher in the early 1990s compared to the precrisis boom period of the mid 1970s the analysis is done by comparing real household expenditures from two national surveys in 1976 and 1991 the results suggest that real per capita expenditures in both rural and urban areas are higher in 1991 compared to 1976 furthermore the level of poverty in both rural and urban areas is lower in 1991 the results which refute the stated hypothesis are tested under alternative assumptions and are found robust

the robustness of poverty profiles reconsidered poverty measures and profiles are used increasingly to guide antipoverty policies in low income countries an essential element in these analyses is the specification of a poverty line however there are many different methods for setting poverty lines and different methods can yield strikingly different results with correspondingly different policy implications using recent household survey data from mozambique this paper explores the differences that occur using the most common poverty line methodologies the food energy intake fei and the cost of basic needs cbn methods over different levels of geographic specificity we find that regional and provincial rankings of foster greer and thorbecke poverty indices are not robust to the method of poverty line determination but that the characteristics of the poor are reasonably similar under all methods the fei poverty lines often yield counterintuitive results whereas the family of cbn poverty lines was more robust food consumption patterns of the poor show a high degree of substitution among basic staples from one region to another which is consistent with observed differences in relative food prices indicating that cbn poverty lines that allow for regional variation in the food consumption bundle may be most appropriate in these settings