a review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models abstract the aim of this study is to investigate the ability of electricity system models to provide scenario based insights for policy purposes a framework is built from a review of existing studies of model characteristics and their linkages to model scenario types which are linked to the purpose of policy problem analyses the framework can be used as a tool to structure the examination of electricity system models and guide electricity system model selection and enhancement in light of policy problem driven analyses an illustration of the framework is presented by a review of german electricity model scenario studies the review shows that current models are used for the policy purpose of indicator assessment and instrument comparison by quantification of indicators such as monetary or pollution impacts however they are not suitable to provide the means for option reduction problem exploration and political or societal paradigm change exploration as the endogenous model structure for these is missing a particular lack of endogenous treatment was found for renewable technology capacity change and policies learning and productivity growth based technological change socio political technical interactions and limited demonstrated use of uncertainty treatment techniques

using operating cash flow data to predict financial distress some extensions recently financial statement users and regulators of publicly reported financial accounting data have argued in favor of the disclosure of detailed information on firms current operating cash flows harris et al 1980 fasb 1981 smith 1982 and thomas 1982 the fasb suggests that such disclosures will allow users to assess better the amount timing and uncertainty of future cash flows it states that the greater the amount of future net cash inflows from operations the greater the ability of the enterprise to withstand adverse changes in operating conditions 1981 p 11 the presumption that historical operating cash flows enable better assessments of future cash flows however is based on intuition rather than on empirical evidence griffin 1982 our study was conducted to assess whether operating cash flow data and related measures lead to more accurate predictions of bankrupt and

values in the smart grid the co evolving political economy of smart distribution investing in smart grid infrastructure is a key enabler for the transition to low carbon energy systems recent work has characterised the costs and benefits of individual smart investments the political economy of the uk electricity system however has co evolved such that there is a mismatch between where benefits accrue and where costs are incurred leading to a problem of value capture and redeployment further some benefits of smart grids are less easy to price directly and can be classified as public goods such as energy security and decarbonisation this paper builds on systemic treatments of energy system transitions to characterise the co evolution of value capture and structural incentives in the electricity distribution system drawing on semi structured interviews and focus groups undertaken with smart grid stakeholders in the uk this leads to an identification of municipal scale values that may be important for business models for the delivery of smart infrastructure municipalities may thus pursue specific economic opportunities through smart grid investment this supports recent practical interest in an expanded role for municipalities as partners and investors in smart grid infrastructures 2014 the authors published by elsevier ltd this is an open access article under the cc by license

public prioritisation of energy affordability in the uk much research has focused on the so called energy trilemma i e three leading energy policy issues energy security affordability and climate change mitigation whilst substantial understanding exists of why people support climate friendly energy policies little is known about why they think affordability is important particularly what leads members of the public to identify this policy goal as more important than other objectives here we examine this question via a nationally representative survey of 2441 uk residents and demonstrate that concerns about personal costs explain a small amount of variation in the prioritisation of affordability as an energy policy goal a range of other factors also significantly contribute one such factor is beliefs about who is responsible for energy transitions these findings suggest policy actions to address affordability concerns should go beyond energy prices and include additional considerations such as distributive justice and equality

the co evolutionary relationship between energy service companies and the uk energy system implications for a low carbon transition abstract the energy service company esco business model is designed to reward businesses by satisfying consumers energy needs at less cost and with fewer carbon emissions via energy demand management and or sustainable supply measures in contrast the revenue of the incumbent energy utility company euco model is coupled with the sale of units of energy which are predominantly sourced from fossil fuels the latter is currently dominant in the uk this paper addresses two questions first why has the esco model traditionally been confined to niche applications second what role is the esco model likely to play in the transition to a low carbon uk energy system to answer these the paper examines the core characteristics of the esco model relative to the euco model the paper then examines how escos have co evolved with the various dimensions of the energy system i e ecosystems institutions user practices technologies and business models to provide insight into how escos might help to shape the future uk energy system we suggest that institutional and technological changes within the uk energy system could result in a more favourable selection environment for escos consequently enabling the esco model to proliferate at the expense of the euco model

towards improved policy processes for promoting innovation in renewable electricity technologies in the uk this paper analyses recent current and potential future relations between policy processes and substantive outcomes in uk low carbon innovation policy focussing on policies relating to renewable electricity generation technologies it examines the development of policy processes relating to the adoption and implementation of the renewables obligation and how these may affect the current and likely future success of the obligation in promoting low carbon innovation it examines the new policy and institutional processes put in place in the 2003 energy white paper and argues that these are unlikely to provide the strategic long term framework needed to realise the ambitious goals for uk energy policy set out in the white paper finally it outlines some suggestions for further development of policy processes to facilitate improved delivery of these goals based on guiding principles for sustainable innovation policy processes developed by the authors and their colleagues

fiscal interactions of central city and suburbs the case of zurich one possible explanation for the migration from the central city to fiscally independent suburbs is a lack of equivalence between taxation and perceived benefits from local public goods spill outs to suburbs add to this process and may lead to fiscal erosion of the central city piecemeal evidence is presented that this problem applies to the city of zurich various possible remedies are discussed one of which has been applied in zurich though not successfully it is shown theoretically and empirically why this failure occurred alternative countermeasures are suggested and an account of how zurich government officials reacted is supplied

a coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy this paper proposes a coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy based on the coevolution of ecosystems technologies institutions business strategies and user practices within a multi level micro meso macro perspective this builds on and develops previous coevolutionary analyses of long term technological and industrial change and recent renewed interest within ecological economics on coevolutionary approaches previous work has analysed how the coevolution of technologies and institutions has led to the lock in of current high carbon energy systems and how the coevolution of physical and social technologies and business strategies has brought significant material and welfare benefits to the minority of the world s population living in industrialised countries the coevolutionary framework proposed here may be used to undertake 1 detailed empirical analyses at a micro meso level of the challenges relating to the innovation and adoption of particularly low carbon technologies 2 as a framework for analysing the multi level interaction of social and technological elements within potential transition pathways to a low carbon energy system 3 to assess the implications for economic growth and prosperity of a transition to a low carbon economy and 4 to assist in the development of more formal multi level evolutionary economic models

delivering a secure electricity supply on a low carbon pathway abstract the energy system can only be considered sustainable in the long term if it is low carbon affordable and secure these three create a complex trilemma for all stakeholders in the energy business who have to strike a careful balance without neglecting any one aspect this discussion paper examines the issues surrounding security of supply of the power system which has received less attention than the other aspects it looks at how threats and mitigation measures can be classified in terms of where they act on the supply chain and the timescale over which they act only by considering the full range of timescales from seconds to decades can the full picture emerge of the effects of new technologies on security of supply an examination of blackouts over the past 40 years sheds light on the causes of failure to supply and the most vulnerable aspects of the supply chain

a comparative analysis of the costs of onshore wind energy is there a case for community specific policy support abstract there is growing policy interest in increasing the share of community owned renewable energy generation this study explores why and how the costs of community owned projects differ from commercially owned projects by examining the case of onshore wind in the uk based on cross sectoral literature on the challenges of community ownership cost differences are attributed to six facets of an organisation or project internal processes internal knowledge and skills perceived local legitimacy of the project perceived external legitimacy of the organisation investor motivation and expectations and finally project scale these facets impact not only development costs but also project development times and the probability that projects pass certain critical stages in the development process using survey based and secondary cost data on community and commercial projects in the uk a model is developed to show the overall impact of cost time and risk differences on the value of a hypothetical 500 kw onshore wind project the results show that the main factors accounting for differences are higher pre planning costs and additional risks born by community projects and suggest that policy interventions may be required to place community owned projects on a level playing field with commercial projects

drug policy and federalism supply restricting drug policy is inefficient from an economic point of view but is nevertheless widely used this paper explains this phenomenon as individually rational behavior for local government because supply restriction gives addicts an incentive to migrate it has an external effect this effect makes a policy of supply restrictions individually rational but leads to socially wasteful competition between local governments in a federal system

shale gas policy in the united kingdom an argumentative discourse analysis shale gas has become an energy policy priority in the united kingdom in light of profitable extraction activities in the united states since 2012 the coalition government has created key economic drivers to encourage shale exploration whilst growing activism in affected site communities has stirred significant media and academic commentary this study examines the growing national debate as a matter of discourse adopting an argumentative discourse analytic approach to assess data collected from stakeholder interviews n 21 and key policy actor statements quoted in broadsheet newspapers we explore three dominant storylines emerging in relation to shale gas policy 1 cleanliness and dirt concerns the relative framing of the environmental benefits and harms of shale gas 2 energy transitions pathways and diversions concerns geographic metaphors of transitions to carbon intensive and low carbon energy systems and 3 geographies of environmental justice concerns divisions of economic benefit distribution environmental impact and procedural fairness we find that central government policy rhetoric emphasises economic development regulatory oversight and distribution of benefits to site communities whilst minimising discussion of the implications of shale gas for anthropogenic climate change the role of these discourses in influencing shale gas policy is discussed

transition pathways for a uk low carbon electricity system comparing scenarios and technology implications the united kingdom uk has placed itself on a transition towards a low carbon economy and society through the imposition of a goal of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 80 by 2050 a set of three low carbon transition pathways were developed to examine the influence of different governance arrangements on achieving a low carbon future they focus on the power sector including the potential for increasing use of low carbon electricity for heating and transport these transition pathways were developed by starting from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies here the quantified pathways are compared and contrasted with the main scenarios developed in the uk government s 2011 carbon plan this can aid an informed debate on the technical feasibility and social acceptability of realising transition pathways for decarbonising the uk energy sector by 2050 the contribution of these pathways to meeting britain s energy and carbon reduction goals are therefore evaluated on a whole systems basis including the implications of upstream emissions arising from the fuel supply chain ahead of power generators themselves

emergence of new economics energy transition models a review abstract well known academic and non academic institutions call for a new approach in economics able to capture features of modern economies including but not limited to complexity non equilibrium and uncertainty in this paper we provide a systematic review of ecological macroeconomic models that are suitable for the investigation of low carbon energy transitions and assess them based on the features considered desirable for a new approach in economics we draw two main conclusions firstly the knowledge base and structure of these existing ecological macroeconomic models are relevant alongside other types of models for the creation of a new approach in economics secondly the reviewed models are policy relevant especially in the context of the complexity and urgency of rapid energy transitions where increasingly policymakers require economic models able to capture real world characteristics however further improvements are needed to these models and future research should focus on i assuring comparability of models results and their policy insights ii incorporation of the relationships between macroeconomics finance and sustainability and iii the institutionalization of a new approach in economics

governing transitions cases and insights from two periods in the history of the uk gas industry the paper aims to inform historically the analyses of future sociotechnical transition pathways in the electricity sector particularly those developed by the transition pathways to a low carbon economy project it also aims to inform the theoretical approach to transitions by focusing on key decisions at branching points that led to transitions in the uk gas energy services regime which occurred under different governance patterns the first historical case study covers the market led transformation of the manufactured gas regime from 1877 to 1914 which developed the end uses of gas beyond lighting to include cooking and extended access to working class consumers the second case study covers the period from 1948 to 1977 historically reconstructing the transition from town gas to natural gas this state led and coordinated conversion to natural gas was preceded by a period of destabilisation of the manufactured gas regime the co existence of several niche technologies and the hybridisation of the key actors and technological infrastructures of the incumbent regime comparing the cases provides insights for future energy service transitions by addressing the significance of power trust and networking in the decision making processes involved in the governance of energy transitions

tax harmonization and tax competition in the european union lessons from switzerland abstract this paper presents empirical evidence on individual income tax competition in switzerland tax competition has some influence on the spread of people with high income over the cantons and it is partly capitalised in dwelling rents however it neither leads to a collapse of public good supply nor makes redistribution by the fiscal authorities impossible thus if tax competition works well in switzerland there is no reason why it should have disastrous effects in a future european union

taking stock of the local impacts of community owned renewable energy a review and research agenda abstract a growing literature suggests that community owned renewable energy cre projects have the potential to deliver a range of environmental and local socio economic benefits there is relatively little empirical evidence to substantiate this with few systematic efforts to assess social and environmental impacts or to understand the context in which given impacts arise in this paper we review and conceptualise the local impacts commonly cited in the literature and dissect the empirical evidence currently available to support their occurrence having assessed the quality of evidence and pinpointed knowledge gaps we draw on methodological literature to identify approaches necessary to improve our understanding of the local impacts of cre and explore their patterns of occurrence we find a lack of robust survey and statistical evidence across all the seven impact categories identified of the impacts identified empowerment and access to affordable energy are found to be the least studied in addition several impacts are associated only with specific types of community energy projects we argue that the paucity of consistent evidence for direct impacts associated with the development processes and direct outcomes of projects suggests that the most substantial local impacts result from medium to long term indirect project outcomes and the investment of project revenues in the local community as such collective funding pools and negotiation processes around their distribution towards private versus public goods play a crucial role in determining transformative local impacts of cre

a dual narrative modelling approach for evaluating socio technical transitions in electricity sectors the sustainability transition of electricity sectors is a matter of competition between multiple emerging renewable systems and dominant established conventional systems these transitions are multi dimensional and are featured with non linear and causal interactions between social technical economic and political components understanding the dynamic of transitions i e how transitions unfold can inform effective policy interventions this paper aims to present a narrative modelling approach to improve the understanding and description of transition dynamics in electricity sectors the central ideas of the paper are 1 the use of qualitative transition narratives helps to capture the co evolving nature of society and technology which are simplified in modelling approaches 2 narratives with concepts from the sustainability transitions field also guide the development of a model structure and 3 computational models in return reproduce the complexity of transition dynamics i e feedback loops non linearity and time delays the features which are impracticable to analyse with transition narratives alone we use the historical transition of india s electricity sector to demonstrate the implementation of our proposed approach first an overview of the transition narratives is presented and the model structure developed based on the narratives is explained then it is argued how the coupling of the narratives and model improves our understating of the positive impacts as well as the side effects of stable feed in tariffs and accelerated depreciation on the penetration levels of wind and solar electricity

comparison of technology efficiency for co2 emissions reduction among european countries based on dea with decomposed factors abstract for consistent and effective co 2 reduction many countries need to improve not only the technical efficiency of co 2 mitigation but also environmental responsibility in this study we examine both the technical efficiency and voluntary environmental consciousness vec of 12 european countries using a two stage data envelopment analysis dea in the first stage we measured the technical efficiency of green energy technologies get associated with fossil fuels renewable energy and storage technologies of each country for energy generation with regard to co 2 emissions by surveying get related patents using the logarithmic mean divisia index lmdi we decomposed co 2 emissions into the following technological factors energy intensity fuel mix and co 2 emission coefficient in the second stage we quantified the vec in each country by investigating get patent changes via research and development r d investment at given changes in co 2 emissions the results show different aspects for each country in terms of technical efficiency and vec suggesting potential levels of both efficient co 2 reductions and desirable get development by using reference countries as a benchmark our study methodology and results can contribute to establishing effective national technology policy and aid in calls for common responsibility and the active participation of nations in addressing climate change

socio technical analysis of the electricity sector of mexico its historical evolution and implications for a transition towards low carbon development abstract the electricity sector of mexico has been found itself in continuous transitions since its beginning in the 19th century however the historical reform to the sector that recently took place together with new energy market configurations around the globe may pose an important challenge to transitioning towards a low carbon sector the work presented here was aimed at understanding in a qualitative manner the complex interactions between the main social technical and environmental aspects that have guided the sector in the past their influence on the current structure and its future development through the application of the multi level perspective mlp with a governance and agency perspective additionally the work tried to elucidate the implications of the incumbent position of the natural gas industry and the possibilities for low carbon technologies the conclusions remark the importance of previous sector configurations in the present structure the important role of government in promoting low carbon technologies together with investment by market actors and the possible window of opportunity that the natural gas industry in mexico may provide to low carbon energy technologies

evolving theories of sustainability and firms history future directions and implications for renewable energy research abstract sustainability has become a critical perspective in managing firms via a holistic approach by considering economic environmental and social dimensions of firms with the rising significance of sustainable development the theories of sustainability in firms have evolved during the past six decades this article offers a critical review of the evolving theories linking sustainability to firms and discusses their implications for future renewable energy research the relationships among different theories are critically analysed and the directions for future research are discussed the paper shows that the main theories linking sustainability to firms in a chronological order are 1 corporate social responsibility 2 stakeholder theory 3 corporate sustainability and 4 green economics currently various innovative approaches and new theories emerged such as co evolution theory and multi level perspective reflecting three directions of theory development namely 1 shifting from what to how 2 growing use of interdisciplinary approach and 3 towards broader systems renewable energy studies associated with firms and future research opportunities in this area are also critically analysed the comprehensive review offered in this paper provides a useful reference for policy makers corporate managers and researchers interested in corporate sustainability and renewable energy related studies

dynamic instability of a mixed city in the presence of neighborhood externalities it has been often asked whether a city currently accommodating a variety of economic social and racial groups will continue to be a mixed city or will become exclusively occupied by a single group particularly poor blacks with all other groups moving out of the city in the long run in order to answer this question properly it seems essential to develop a long run dynamic model of a city with emphasis on socioeconomic factors like neighborhood externalities within or among various groups of residents as well as spatial factors like the individual choice of residential space and location it might be safely said that in the literature the only theoretical work which employs a long run dynamic approach to this kind of problem is a paper on dynamic models of segregation by thomas schelling 197 1 although his socioeconomic analysis has revealed some of the dynamic properties of a racially mixed area with neighborhood externalities his model itself is quite unsatisfactory from the economic point of view since it lacks individual utility functions and thereby disregards the aspect of the individual choice of space and location within the city 2 as a result he failed to analyze the effect of spatial segregation within the city on the long run nature of the residential composition of the city in this paper i develop a long run dynamic model of an open city which accommodates two groups of households for example blacks and whites rich and poor young and old with their utility functions depending on a consumption good and residential space i also assume two kinds of neighborhood externalities the first is called negative intergroup externalities that is the utility level of a typical household in one group is adversely affected by an increase in the number of households in the other group living in the city the second is called positive intragroup externalities that is the utility level of a typical household in one group is positively affected by an increase in the size of its own group in in the city first i define a mixed city equilibrium as a long run equilibrium which allows the two groups to coexist in the city in the long run and then introduce a dynamic adjustment process of household movement into and out of the city it is proved that the mixed city equilibrium is always unstable in the presence of negative intergroup externalities and or positive intragroup externalities if residential land is perfectly homogeneous and there is no differential transport cost incurred within the city it turns out however that in the case of a monocentric city with positive transport cost the mixed city equilibrium may be stable or unstable depending on the degree of neighborhood externalities because of the stabilizing effect of spatial segregation between the two groups within the city

simulating the new british electricity market reform abstract the british government is implementing fully its novel electricity market reform gb emr its objective in line with european directives aims at replacing existing nuclear and coal plant with low carbon systems to deliver reliable and affordable power though the gb emr has proposed several policy instruments for meeting its objectives and the academic literature has discussed the main issues no known report includes a comprehensive and dynamic simulation exercise that assesses the extent of this profound and important initiative this paper presents a system dynamics model that supports analysis of long term effects of the various policy instruments that have been proposed in the gb emr focusing on environmental quality security of supply and economic sustainability using lessons learned from simulation the paper concludes that effectively achieving the gb emr objectives requires this comprehensive intervention or a similar one that includes the promotion of low carbon electricity generation through the simultaneous implementation of various direct and indirect incentives such as a carbon price floor a feed in tariff fit and a capacity mechanism

the evolution of collective strategy frames in high and low velocity industries we argue that the collective assumptions of firms drive their actions and practices and create the conditions of industry velocity in our view cognitive construction by firms is the primary driver of industry velocity this is in contrast to the contingency views common in the literature which hold that industry velocity plays a role by constraining and shaping firm strategies specifically we suggest that firms develop unique assumptions social networks and feedback mechanisms that these mechanisms perpetuate patterns of changes in collective beliefs and aggregate actions and that these patterns in turn shape high and low velocity conditions we examine these assertions by tracing the collective beliefs of three aircraft low velocity and semiconductor high velocity firms over a 20 year period 1977 1997 our results suggest that the cognitive construction view of industry velocity is reasonable

assessing long term energy security the case of electricity in the united kingdom there is a growing body of research into the potential security risks and trade offs which may emerge over the long term development of energy systems as part of this body of research this paper aims to develop and demonstrate a set of indicators for assessing the security of long term national electricity scenarios this paper extends the empirical work of existing frameworks by including reliability and cost parameters alongside a range of other important aspects of energy security such as diversity trade and acceptability and by using both qualitative and quantitative indicators without aggregation in order to identify trade offs this paper uses the indicators to assess the energy security implications of three plausible long term scenarios for the uk electricity system the results indicate that a major risk may be experienced by a lack of flexible responsive supply capacity in low carbon electricity pathways reducing overall energy demand is found to be the most beneficial policy for improving energy security in terms of generating benefits in multiple dimensions the paper finds that energy security is often conceptualised as the avoidance of causes of insecurity such as insecure fuel imports but that an equally important aspect of security lies in maximising responses to insecurity for example by increasing the flexibility and responsiveness of both supply and demand

removing environmental market failure through support mechanisms insights from green start ups in the british french and german energy sectors environmentally relevant market failure related to the lack of value attached to environmentally beneficial economic activity constrains environmental entrepreneurship as reported by dean and mcmullen journal of business venturing 22 50 76 2007 unless this market failure is addressed green start ups will be confined to a green prison as stated in pacheco et al sustainable development and entrepreneurship 25 464 480 2010 unable to grow and disseminate their eco innovations out with environmental niche markets in britain france and germany support mechanisms promote the expansion of renewable power technologies this paper examines environmental entrepreneurs perceptions of the importance and effectiveness of support mechanisms in removing environmental market failure in the energy sectors of these three countries our findings suggest that these support mechanisms are perceived by entrepreneurs as having provided a crucial pecuniary motivation among consumers to adopt eco innovation creating greater market certainty for green start ups however when these support mechanisms are reformed aiming at greater market integration for eco innovation green start ups find this transition from protection to more market exposure as challenging and more suited for incumbent firms

the german energy transition as a regime shift abstract in this paper i use the resilience framework to interpret the project of transforming the german energy system into a renewable energy sources res based system the so called energiewende as a regime shift this regime shift comprises several transformations which are currently altering the technological political and economic system structure to build my argument i first sketch how technological political and economic developments reduced the resilience of the conventional fossil nuclear energy regime and created a new res regime second i depict recent changes in german public discourse and energy policy as the shift to the res regime third i highlight the challenges involved with increasing the resilience of the res regime in particular sufficient resilience of the electricity transmission grid appears to be crucial for facilitating the transformation of the whole energy system

a low carbon industrial revolution insights and challenges from past technological and economic transformations recent efforts to promote a transition to a low carbon economy have been influenced by suggestions that a low carbon transition offers challenges and might yield economic benefits comparable to those of the previous industrial revolutions this paper examines these arguments and the challenges facing a low carbon transition by drawing on recent thinking on the technological economic and institutional factors that enabled and sustained the first british industrial revolution and the role of general purpose technologies in stimulating and sustaining this and subsequent industrial transformation processes that have contributed to significant macroeconomic gains these revolutions involved profound long drawn out changes in economy technology and society and although their energy transitions led to long run economic benefits they took many decades to develop to reap significant long run economic benefits from a low carbon transition sooner rather than later would require systemic efforts and incentives for low carbon innovation and substitution of high carbon technologies we conclude that while achieving a low carbon transition may require societal changes on a scale comparable with those of previous industrial revolutions this transition does not yet resemble previous industrial revolutions a successful low carbon transition would however amount to a different kind of industrial revolution

business model innovation in electricity supply markets the role of complex value in the united kingdom this research investigates the new opportunities that business model innovations are creating in electricity supply markets at the sub national scale these local supply business models can offer significant benefits to the electricity system but also generate economic social and environmental values that are not well accounted for in current policy or regulation this paper uses the uk electricity supply market to investigate new business models which rely on more complex value propositions than the incumbent utility model nine archetypal local supply business models are identified and their value propositions value capture methods and barriers to market entry are analysed this analysis defines complex value as a key concept in understanding business model innovation in the energy sector the process of complex value identification poses a challenge to energy researchers commercial firms and policymakers in liberalised markets to investigate the opportunities for system efficiency and diverse outcomes that new supplier business models can offer to the electricity system

deep transitions emergence acceleration stabilization and directionality abstract industrial society has not only led to high levels of wealth and welfare in the western world but also to increasing global ecological degradation and social inequality the socio technical systems that underlay contemporary societies have substantially contributed to these outcomes this paper proposes that these socio technical systems are an expression of a limited number of meta rules that for the past 250 years have driven innovation and hence system evolution in a particular direction thereby constituting the first deep transition meeting the cumulative social and ecological consequences of the overall direction of the first deep transition would require a radical change not only in socio technical systems but also in the meta rules driving their evolution the second deep transition this paper develops a new theoretical framework that aims to explain the emergence acceleration stabilization and directionality of deep transitions it does so through the synthesis of two literatures that have attempted to explain large scale and long term socio technical change the multi level perspective mlp on socio technical transitions and techno economic paradigm tep framework

towards a new complexity economics for sustainability some of the most important and urgent topics requiring economic analysis and policy advice are the problems of climate change and environmental sustainability and what can be done to alter corporate and individual behaviour to deal with these issues neoclassical economists tend to focus on market solutions such as carbon trading drawing on ideas of perfect rationality of actors and the appropriateness of marginal analysis to link such policies to the whole range of potential actions from legislative and regulatory to changing individual behaviours requires the economy and society to be analysed in its full complexity recognising that marginal analysis can be not just irrelevant but positively harmful when the need is for systemic shifts in economic and social trajectories this article draws upon a seminar series on complexity economics to consider how heterodox economic analysis can be brought to bear on the issue of the environment to develop a realistic policy agenda for change copyright oxford university press

developing pathways for energy storage in the uk using a coevolutionary framework abstract a number of recent techno economic studies have shown that energy storage could offer significant benefits to a low carbon uk energy system as it faces increased challenges in matching supply and demand however the majority of this work has not investigated the real world issues affecting the widespread deployment of storage this paper is designed to address this gap by drawing on the systems innovation and socio technical transitions literature to identify some of the most important contextual factors which are likely to influence storage deployment specifically it uses a coevolutionary framework to examine how changes in ecosystems user practices business strategies institutions and technologies are creating a new selection environment and potentially opening up the energy system to new variations of storage for both electricity and heat the analysis shows how these different dimensions of the energy regime can coevolve in mutually reinforcing ways to create alternative pathways for the energy system which in turn have different flexibility requirements and imply different roles for storage technologies using this framework three pathways are developed user led decentralised and centralised which illustrate potential long term trajectories for energy storage technologies in a low carbon energy system

transition pathways for a uk low carbon electricity future abstract achieving long term targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions such as the uk s legally binding target of reducing its emissions by 80 by 2050 will require a transition in systems for meeting and shaping energy service demands involving radical substitution to low carbon supply technologies and improvements in end use energy efficiency this paper describes the development and high level analysis of a set of transition pathways to a uk low carbon electricity system explaining key features of the core pathways developed and the distinctiveness and value of the approach the pathways use an action space concept to explore the dynamic interactions between choices made by actors which are influenced by the competing governance framings or logics that different actors pursue the paper sets out three core transition pathways market rules central co ordination and thousand flowers in which market government and civil society logics respectively dominate it summarises the key technological and institutional changes in these pathways and the roles of actors in bringing these about this leads to an identification of the key risks to the realisation of each of the pathways and of the challenges for individuals businesses social movements and policy makers in taking action to bring them about and sustain them

supporting the externality of intermittency in policies for renewable energy abstract we analyse the joint problem of supporting renewables and resource adequacy in a liberalised electricity market and present a detailed model based comparison of two alternative policies we undertake this in the context of the british market we show how ceteris paribus the progressive replacement of coal with wind imposes extra costs of reserve and evaluate alternative way to meet this whether through capacity payments funded by customers or a reliability requirement on wind generators with capital cost or energy feed in subsidies we consider the reality of market concentration and the extent to which pragmatic regulation could allow prices to rise above marginal cost to reduce the extent of direct subsidies and complex market designs we also evaluate the implied cost of carbon reduction in a progressive replacement of coal with wind when the security is maintained by extra peaking gas we find that support through capital allowances rather than the energy market is more efficient

synergies and trade offs between governance and costs in electricity system transition affordability and costs of an energy transition are often viewed as the most influential drivers conversely multi level transitions theory argues that governance and the choices of key actors such as energy companies government and civil society drive the transition not only on the basis of costs this paper combines the two approaches and presents a cost appraisal of the uk transition to a low carbon electricity system under alternate governance logics a novel approach is used that links qualitative governance narratives with quantitative transition pathways electricity system scenarios and their appraisal the results contrast the dominant market led transition pathway market rules with alternate pathways that have either stronger governmental control elements central co ordination or bottom up proactive engagement of civil society thousand flowers market rules has the lowest investment costs by 2050 central co ordination is more likely to deliver the energy policy goals and possibly even a synergistic reduction in the total system costs if policies can be enacted and maintained thousand flowers which envisions wider participation of the society comes at the expense of higher investment and total system costs the paper closes with a discussion of the policy implications from cost drivers and the roles of market government and society

corporate governance and default prediction a reality test default prediction has commanded the attention of researchers for at least 50 years this paper addresses several testable hypotheses regarding the relations between corporate governance and defaul

the probability of bankruptcy a comparison of empirical predictions and theoretical models abstract the last decade has witnessed the development of many empirical models to predict corporate bankruptcy and of several bankruptcy theories this paper reviews and integrates these two strands of research and finds a substantial amount of overlap however the overlap is not perfect the paper presents a new theory of bankruptcy that appears to fit the data better the paper also suggests directions for future empirical and theoretical research