does the bond market predict bankruptcy settlements this study shows the extent to which deviations from the absolute priority rule increase or decrease the bankruptcy emergence payoff to traded i e usually junior claimants bondholders the data indicate that on average bondholders benefit albeit slightly from absolute priority rule apr violations this paper also examines the degree to which the bond market in the bankruptcy filing month anticipates departures from the apr and other influences on the payoff to bondholders in other words we investigate the informational efficiency of the market for bankrupt bonds overall despite the complex and lengthy nature of bankruptcy proceedings the results support efficiency the finance literature has traditionally assumed that when a firm enters bankruptcy the creditors become the owners and the value of the firm is distributed according to the absolute priority rule apr the apr states that senior creditors should be fully compensated before junior creditors receive any portion of the bankrupt firm s value and junior creditors should receive full payment before shareholders receive any compensation in practice formal bankruptcy proceedings are complex processes that often violate the apr brown 1989 captures some of the intricacies of this process in a game theoretic model showing that the solution to the bargaining process in bankruptcy can involve deviations from the apr although the solution

deep habits in the new keynesian phillips curve we derive and estimate a new keynesian phillips curve nkpc in a model where consumers are assumed to have deep habits habits are deep in the sense that they apply to individual consumption goods instead of aggregate consumption this alters the nkpc in a fundamental manner as it introduces expected and contemporaneous consumption growth as well as the expected marginal value of future demand as additional driving forces for inflation dynamics we construct the driving process in the deep habits nkpc by using the model s optimality conditions to impute time series for unobservable variables the resulting series is considerably more volatile than unit labor cost general methods of moments gmm estimation of the nkpc shows an improved fit and a much lower degree of indexation than in the standard nkpc our analysis also reveals that the crucial parameters for the performance of the deep habit nkpc are the habit parameter and the substitution elasticity between differentiated products the results are broadly robust to alternative specifications

an introduction to the law and economics of intellectual property although economists have written on topics of intellectual property for a long time the impact of economics on public policy in this area has been slight especially as compared to the influence of professional writings in areas such as antitrust and taxation we believe that too few of the profession s resources have been devoted to these issues and that of those resources that have been employed too few have been devoted to empirical analyses we hope that this introductory essay and the three papers that follow will stimulate interest in this subject this introductory essay first describes some of the basic economic tradeoffs involved in intellectual property law and then describes the framework of the law in the six areas described above patent copyright semiconductor protection trademark trade secret and misappropriation it is intended both to provide thumbnail descriptions of the various intellectual property regimes to economists working in this area and to indicate where additional economic research might be useful

some economics of trade secret law despite the practical importance of trade secrets to the business community the law of trade secrets is a neglected orphan in economic analysis this paper sketches an approach to the economics of trade secret law that connects it more closely both to other areas of intellectual property and to broader issues in the positive economic theory of the common law

the u s patent system in transition policy innovation and the innovation process abstract this paper surveys the major changes in patent policy and practice that have occured in the last two decades in the u s and reviews the existing analyses by the economists that attempt to measure the impacts these changes have had on the processes of technological change it also reviews the broader theoretical and empirical literature that bears on the expected effects of changes in patent policy despite the significance of the policy changes and the wide availability of detailed data relating to patenting robust conclusions regarding the empirical consequences for technological innovation of changes in patent policy are few possible reasons for these limited results are discussed and possible avenues for future research are suggested

the behavior of the common stock of bankrupt firms the event of reorganization or liquidation will be determined by a court to the extent such legal decisions are insensitive to general market movements perhaps the market risk of the firm s shares is reduced it could be the case that most corporate bankruptices are so fully anticipated that little or no new information is released when bankruptcies are filed casual observation suggests that major corporate bankruptcies do not come as complete surprises trading in listed stocks usually is halted some time before bankruptcy filings stories that a corporation is about to file a bankruptcy petition sometimes appear in the financial press several days prior to the filing more conclusive evidence that the market anticipates corporate bankruptcies has been presented in previous empirical studies the findings of westerfield 4 and aharony jones and swary 1 demonstrated that shareholders experience abnormal losses over periods of from four to six years prior to bankruptcy one of westerfield s cumulative performance measures indicated that shareholders of bankrupt companies lost on average 76 percent of their wealth relative to returns on securities of equivalent risk during the seventy one months preceding the announcement of bankruptcy of course large shareholder losses prior to bankruptcy do not guarantee that additional large losses will not be suffered when bankruptcy is announced to date only limited evidence supporting the existence of a bankruptcy announcement effect has been reported altman 2 found that shareholders suffered an average capital loss of approximately 26 percent during the period from one month before to one month after bankruptcy announcements unfortunately a two month interval is too long to provide a clear measure of the market s reaction to bankruptcy announcements it is possible that most or all of the shareholder losses detected by altman occurred during the month preceding the announcements

systematic share price fluctuations after bankruptcy filings and the investors who drive them beginning in the 1990s firms often continue to trade on the major national exchanges after chapter 11 bankruptcy filings for bankruptcies filed from 1993 2003 we find that the more negative the filing period price reaction the more favorable the immediate post filing returns on average this reversal is not attributable to bid ask bounce it holds after controlling for other factors associated with post filing returns and it appears more attributable to the activities of large traders than to small traders supplementary tests reveal that the pattern of post filing returns differs significantly for bankruptcies filed in bull versus bear markets bankruptcies filed during the 1993 to 1999 bull market enjoy substantial but short lived reversals averaging one third of the filing period price plunge these reversals are inconsistent with efficient assimilation of the bankruptcy information in contrast we find no evidence of post filing reversals for bankruptcies filed from 2000 to 2003

an empirical investigation of u s firms in reorganization the purpose of this paper is to understand the institutional features of chapter 11 from an empirical examination of thirty firms that have emerged from reorganization we find the recontracting framework of chapter 11 to be complex lengthy and costly violations of absolute priority in favor of stockholders are frequently encountered these deviations may result from the bargaining process of chapter 11 or from a recontracting process between creditors and stockholders which recognizes the ability of stockholder oriented management to preserve firm value an example of such recontracting addresses myers underinvestment problem an investigation of the effects of chapter 11 on the pricing of risky debt is also provided the purpose of this paper is to understand the institutional features of chapter

the economics of invention incentives patents prizes and research contracts though public intervention in the market for research is virtually universal economists have paid surprisingly little attention to the choice of the form of research incentive in a given market structure many studies concentrate on patents but any assumption of their superiority over other incentives has been founded on intuition rather than on formal analysis in this paper i analyze the choice between three of the most common alternative means of public intervention in the research market namely patents prizes and direct contracting for research services i show why and under what conditions any one of the three may be preferred by a social welfare maximizing administrator in a competitive economy using a model that for the first time pays explicit attention to differences in the informational roles of each of these alternatives in the extensive literature on the economics of patents see arnold plant 1934 fritz machlup 1958 charles taylor and z a silberston 1973 morton kamien and nancy schwartz 1975 and f m scherer 1977 for valuable surveys formal analysis weighs the benefits of patents as a solution to the market failure associated with the inappropriability of knowledge against the welfare cost due to the restriction on the use of the knowledge generated and this tradeoff is optimized by patent life adjustment in william nordhaus 1969 scant analytical attention is paid to alternative incentive mechanisms an exception is ben yu 1981 who considers the role of prior contracting for inventions but as many writers for example dan usher 1964 yoram barzel 1968 joseph stiglitz 1969 carole kitti 1973 glenn loury 1979 partha dasgupta and stiglitz 1980a have pointed out in various contexts the incentive offered by an unlimited patent to competitive researchers may be excessive due to the common pool problem discussed further in section i below if the patent administrator and researchers share the same information as implicitly assumed in previous models then the patent life limitation can be adjusted to provide the optimal patent incentive given the common pool problem but in all such models patents would not be chosen in a fully optimized fiscal system researchers and the administrator are assumed to have identical information about the shadow price of potential inventions a patent is just a means of turning this shadow price into a monetary reward but monetary compensation can instead be offered directly to researchers by the state assuming that patent revenues incur a higher deadweight loss than an equivalent amount of public funds financed by less distortionary means for example a minimally efficient tax system appropriate prizes or government contracts are socially preferable to patents with optimal lives if the patent is ever to be the optimal incentive mechanism for research it must possess advantages not captured in existing models informal discussions of patents emphasize their informational role to include the latter as a justification for decentralized invention incentives i incorporate an ex ante imbalance of information about costs and benefits of research in the model presented in section ii but this alone is not quite enough it is further necessary to specify that the terms of the award must be fixed before department of economics economic growth center box 1987 yale station yale university new haven ct 06520 i thank with the usual caveat marguerite alejandro wright cindy arfken martin baily nuong brennan steven englander robert evenson richard levin richard nelson susan rose ackerman denis wright and two referees for assistance of various kinds

the simple economics of research portfolios this article identifies biases in market portfolios of parallel research projects arising from the noncongruence of social goals and private aspirations occasioned by those circumstances where the market rewards only the winner and where the winner is awarded the entire social surplus it is shown that under risk neutrality this noncongruence implies that t he market encourages the development of too many discoveries too lar ge a spread in the distribution of the quality of discoveries and an excessive occurrence of multiple discoveries copyright 1987 by royal economic society

patents and other intellectual property rights in this article the author reviews intellectual property rights iprs with some emphasis on the protection of agricultural and life sciences innovations the main institutional features of iprs are first discussed along with a brief historical background and an articulation of the main rationale for the existence of such rights this is followed by an overview of the principal economic issues related to iprs the author explains the main benefit cost trade offs of allowing patents and other iprs and then analyzes specific issues in some depth including the scope of patent protection the effects of patent races and the problems arising when iprs concern cumulative and or complementary innovations the author further illustrates the economics of iprs by considering instruments alternative to patents such as prizes and government procurement contracts finally the author briefly discusses some open policy issues in this area

the information content of bankruptcy filing on securityholders of the bankrupt firm an empirical investigation this paper captures the information content of bankruptcy announcements on stockholders and three different classes of debtholders using daily excess returns significant negative stock price reaction to the filing announcement is documented more interestingly the secured debtholders are unaffected by the announcement however the unsecured and the convertible debt classes exhibit significant adverse price reaction during the event period the secured debt group gains significantly while all other classes experience substantial losses cross sectional analysis reveals that the complexity of the reorganization process the security of the debt issue and to some degree the anticipation of the bankruptcy filing are important determinants of bond excess returns it is also found that leverage plays a significant role in preserving firm value by forcing the firm to confront reorganization sooner

spillovers from good news and other bankruptcies real effects and price responses abstract we model debt restructurings that could endogenously end in bankruptcy and study spillovers to competitors operating decisions profits restructuring outcomes and security prices we show that while bankruptcy could cause the firm s share price to drop bankruptcy always signals good news about the firm we identify the conditions under which a bankruptcy also signals good news about competitors we demonstrate that when a firm s bankruptcy costs are relatively small bankruptcy raises its share price while lowering the prices of competitors shares and debt as well as boosting the probability that they will enter bankruptcy when there is little information asymmetry about the firm s prospects or the information asymmetry is about industry prospects bankruptcy raises competitors share and debt prices and lowers their probability of bankruptcy

inventories inflation dynamics and the new keynesian phillips curve abstract we introduce inventories into an otherwise standard new keynesian model and study the implications for inflation dynamics inventory holdings are motivated as a means to generate sales for demand constrained firms we derive various representations of the new keynesian phillips curve with inventories and show that one of these specifications is observationally equivalent to the standard model with respect to the behavior of inflation when the model s cross equation restrictions are imposed however the driving variable in the new keynesian phillips curve real marginal cost is unobservable and has to be proxied by for instance real unit labor cost an alternative approach is to impute marginal cost by using the model s optimality conditions we show that the stock sales ratio is linked to marginal cost we also estimate these various specifications of the new keynesian phillips curve using gmm we find that the predictive power of the inventory specification at best approaches that of the standard model but does not improve upon it

deep habits and exchange rate pass through abstract habit persistence at the level of individual goods varieties can explain incomplete exchange rate pass through to international prices deep habits give rise to a dynamic import demand function that leads to import price markup adjustments independently of nominal pricing frictions augmenting a two country dsge model with deep habits we obtain low exchange rate pass through to import prices even when nominal local currency price rigidities are negligibly low as nominal pricing frictions become more important the presence of deep habits further impedes the pass through of exchange rate fluctuations estimating model variants with limited information as well as full information methods we find that the deep habits model requires much lower degrees of nominal price rigidities to match empirical measures of the pass through of exchange rate fluctuations to us import prices

monetary and fiscal policy under deep habits allowing habits to be formed at the level of individual goods deep habits can radically alter the fiscal policy transmission mechanism as the counter cyclicality of mark ups this implies can result in government spending crowding in rather than crowding out private consumption in the short run we explore the robustness of this mechanism to the existence of price discrimination in the supply of goods to the public and private sectors we then describe optimal monetary and fiscal policy in our new keynesian economy subject to the additional externality of deep habits and explore the ability of simple policy rules to mimic fully optimal policy we find that the presence of deep habits at empirically estimated levels can imply large externalities that significantly affect the conduct of monetary and tax policy however despite the rise in government spending multipliers implied by deep habits government spending is barely used as a stabilisation tool under the optimal policy

intellectual property rights and the world trade organization retrospect and prospects this paper analyzes the main economic issues of intellectual property rights iprs protection in the context of the world trade organization wto a retrospective view on the establishment of the trips trade related aspects of intellectual property rights agreement a still controversial accomplishment of the uruguay round of trade liberalization is provided the paper reviews the economic rationale for the harmonization of iprs drawing both on economic theory considerations as well as emerging empirical evidence the logic of linking ipr protection and trade in the context of the wto is also re examined some specific attention is devoted to the implications of trips for agricultural and biotechnology innovations the impact that ipr protection can have in promoting growth and development and the relation of iprs with other economic policies is discussed the paper concludes with an analysis of the prospects for more or less iprs related consensus in the current round of wto negotiations

aspirations health and the cost of inequality how does inequality motivate people and at what cost in a model of perpetual youth people have heterogeneous upward looking aspirations they value their consumption relative to the conditional mean of those above them in the distribution their survival depends on health capital produced from time investment and health goods higher fundamental inequality working through the aspirations gap motivates people to work and save more economic outcomes improve but income and consumption inequality worsen because the poor have less capacity to respond on the labor market by diverting resources from health production aspirations also worsen mortality especially for the poor though relative income has a strong negative effect on personal health inequality has a weak effect on population health explaining an empirical puzzle on the relative income and health gradient

security pricing and deviations from the absolute priority rule in bankruptcy proceedings claims ultimately awarded to shareholders of firms in reorganization were examined for a sample of 30 filings under the 1978 bankruptcy reform act we measured the amount paid to shareholders in excess of that which they would have received under the absolute priority rule and found that this amount represents on average 7 6 of the total awarded to all claimants evidence is also reported that common share values reflect a significant proportion of value ultimately received in violation of absolute priority suggesting that deviations from the rule were expected by the equity markets the absolute priority rule hereafter apr states that a bankrupt firm s value is to be distributed to suppliers of capital such that senior creditors are fully satisfied before any distributions are made to junior creditors and junior creditors are paid in full before common shareholders bankruptcy reorganization proceedings however are leaving shareholders and junior creditors with valuable assets even when senior claimants receive only partial settlements as barrett and sullivan 1988 noted traditionally shareholders have been last in line their claims on a troubled company s assets have had the lowest priority and their impact on the course of bankruptcy code proceedings generally has been next to nil but lately the balance of power has been shifting warner 1977 provided one of the early discussions of the implications of deviations from the apr baldwin and mason 1983 pp 510 511 examined the resolution of claims in the massey ferguson reorganization and provided no support for the hypothesis that the market believes absolute priority rules will be enforced if the firm defaults on its financial obligations franks and torous 1989 analyzed a sample of bankruptcies that occurred during the period 1970 through 1984 and found that 21 of 27 sample cases exhibited departures from the apr more recently weiss 1990 examined 37 firms that filed for bankruptcy between 1980 and 1986 and reported that 27 of the cases involved apr violations

how broad should the scope of patent protection be i explore the trade off between a patent s length that is its lifetime and its width that is its scope of coverage a wider patent generally reduces the distortion of consumers choices between the patented brand of the product and unpatented lower priced varieties sold by competitors but also permits higher prices which increase relative to profits the deadweight losses from consumers switching consumption out of the product class i show under what conditions infinitely lived but very narrowly focused patents are the socially efficient way to reward innovation and under what conditions very short lived but very broad patents are optimal

the resolution of claims in financial distress the case of massey ferguson when a firm s business deteriorates to the point where it cannot meet its financial obligations the firm is said to have entered the state of financial distress the first signals of distress are usually violations of debt covenants coupled with the omission or reduction of dividends some financially distressed firms eventually go bankrupt others recover or manage to settle the claims against them out of court 1 the behavior of firms in financial distress is interesting for two reasons first the costs of financial distress are an important element in capital structure theory in many models 2 these costs are hypothesized to counteract the tax benefits of leverage and lead to an internal optimum for the capital structure of the firm second financial distress has come to be recognized as a state in which contractual claims are incompletely specified standard terms of the debt equity contract are violated when the firm enters financial distress and claimants may then decide not to act according to previously agreed upon rules or legal formulas recent history has provided a number of examples of firms in financial distress including massey ferguson international harvester chrysler and braniff the resolution of claims in these situations often differs from what is predicted by legal rules or standard theoretical models this paper examines the actual resolution of claims in the reorganization of massey ferguson ltd in part i we use time series data on daily stock returns to test different specifications of priority rules for debt and equity claims in part ii we consider whether massey ferguson avoided deadweight costs of financial distress through the restructuring of claims negotiated among creditors during the winter of 1980 81

information effects in financial distress the case of seabrook station abstract in 1972 a group of electric utilities announced plans to construct seabrook station a nuclear generating facility in 1988 the lead partner in the venture public service company of new hampshire psnh filed for bankruptcy examination of the stock price effects of a variety of financial events preceding the bankruptcy filing shows that information about cash flows paid to psnh security holders affected the common stock prices of psnh and its seabrook partners whereas information about investment and operating cash flows had little or no effect

var based estimation of euler equations with an application to new keynesian pricing abstract var based estimation of euler equations exploits cross equation restrictions that the theory imposes on a vector autoregressive var process for market expectations this paper shows that sargent s 1979 a note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure journal of monetary economics 5 133 143 original approach of imposing these restrictions on the endogenous variable of the euler equation i e computing the rational expectations solution implies multiple solutions and is therefore impracticable the paper shows that this identification problem can be circumvented by reverse engineering the cross equation restrictions on the forcing variable of the euler equation the proposed reverse engineering approach contrasts with the conventional approach in the literature that avoids the identification problem by constraining the system formed by the euler equation and the var process to yield a unique stable rational expectations equilibrium this uniqueness condition makes little economic sense because the var process is just a reduced form approximation of true market expectations and a simulation experiment shows that imposing uniqueness can lead to severe misspecification bias the severity of this misspecification bias is illustrated in practice with an application to gali and gertler s 1999 inflation dynamics a structural econometric analysis journal of monetary economics 44 195 222 hybrid new keynesian phillips curve

habit formation in consumption a meta analysis abstract we examine 597 estimates of habit formation reported in 81 published studies the mean reported strength of habit formation equals 0 4 but the estimates vary widely both within and across studies we use bayesian and frequentist model averaging to assign a pattern to this variance while taking into account model uncertainty studies employing macro data report consistently larger estimates than micro studies 0 6 vs 0 1 on average the difference remains 0 5 when we control for 30 factors that reflect the context in which researchers obtain their estimates such as data frequency geographical coverage variable definition estimation approach and publication characteristics we also find that evidence for habits strengthens when researchers use lower data frequencies employ log linear approximation of the euler equation and utilize open economy dsge models moreover estimates of habits differ systematically across countries

robustness of the estimates of the hybrid new keynesian phillips curve abstract gali and gertler 1999 inflation dynamics a structural econometric approach journal of monetary eonomics 44 2 195 222 developed a hybrid variant of the new keynesian phillips curve that relates inflation to real marginal cost expected future inflation and lagged inflation gmm estimates of the model suggest that forward looking behavior is dominant the coefficient on expected future inflation substantially exceeds the coefficient on lagged inflation while the latter differs significantly from zero it is quantitatively modest several authors have suggested that our results are the product of specification bias or suspect estimation methods here we show that these claims are incorrect and that our results are robust to a variety of estimation procedures including gmm estimation of the closed form and nonlinear instrumental variables also as we discuss many others have obtained very similar results to ours using a systems approach including fiml techniques hence the conclusions of gg and others regarding the importance of forward looking behavior remain robust