an econometric model of crowding out of lower education levels abstract unemployment in the netherlands has risen strongly in recent years there are large differences in unemployment rates between education levels according to neo classical theory these differences should be explained by distorted relative prices or by lack of human capital in this paper we test an alternative explanation according to this view the high unemployment rate for lower education levels is caused by excess labour supply highly educated people take the jobs which could be occupied by less educated people to test this view a regression model is developed estimation results indicate that differences in unemployment rates can indeed be explained by excess supply of qualified labour

sheepskin effects in the returns to education some previous discussions have dismissed screening theories of education partly on the ground that diploma years of education do not confer especially large earnings gains similarly most empirical research on earnings functions has assumed an absence of sheepskin effects we report evidence however of substantial and statistically significant sheepskin effects although this suggests that the previous dismissals of the screening hypothesis were premature our evidence of sheepskin effects is amenable to nonscreening interpretations also according to screening theories of education individuals with more schooling tend to earn more not because or at least not solely because schooling makes them more productive but rather because it credentiates them as more productive a frequently cited article by layard and psacharopoulos 1974 however dismissed the importance of the screening hypothesis on the grounds that several of its refutable predictions were not supported by available evidence one of these was the sheepskin prediction that wages will rise faster with extra years of education when the extra year also conveys a certificate after surveying a number of studies layard and psacharopoulous henceforth lp concluded that rates of return to dropouts are as high as to those who complete a course which refutes the sheepskin version of the screening hypothesis since publication of the lp paper an undergraduate labor economics textbook has cited lp s analysis of sheepskin effects as telling criticism of the screening hypothesis a prominent proponent of the screening hypothesis riley 1979 has accepted lp s summary of the empirical evidence but responded that some versions of the screening hypothesis do not imply sheepskin effects in the meantime the ongoing flood of empirical research on earnings functions typically has continued to treat the natural logarithm of the wage rate as a linear or occasionally quadratic function of years of education with no allowance for discontinuities in diploma years 2 the estimated rates of return used by lp were based on data that did not disaggregate dropouts earnings by how many years of school they had completed lp acknowledged we would have preferred to show the earnings gain associated with each year of the course including the year when it was successfully completed this note presents a reanalysis of sheepskin effects based on the type of data lp wished they had the results contain very strong evidence of sheepskin effects after all the next section describes our analysis and the following section summarizes and discusses our

the role of application assistance and information in college decisions results from the h r block fafsa experiment growing concerns about low awareness and take up rates for government support programs like college financial aid have spurred calls to simplify the application process and enhance visibility we present results from a randomized field experiment in which low income individuals receiving tax preparation help were also offered immediate assistance and a streamlined process to complete the free application for federal student aid fafsa for themselves or their children treated participants were also provided with aid estimates that were compared against tuition cost amounts for nearby colleges the combined assistance and information treatment substantially increased fafsa submissions and ultimately the likelihood of college attendance persistence and aid receipt in particular high school seniors whose parents received the treatment were 8 percentage points more likely to have completed two years of college going from 28 to 36 during the first three years following the experiment families who received aid information but no assistance with the fafsa did not experience improved outcomes the findings suggest many other opportunities for using personal assistance to increase participation in programs that require filling out forms to become eligible jel codes i2 h4 j24 copyright 2012 oxford university press

are there civic returns to education abstract the hypothesized effects of educational attainment on adult civic engagement and attitudes provide some of the most important justifications for government intervention in the market for education in this study i present evidence on whether these externalities exist i assess and implement two strategies for identifying the effects of educational attainment one is based on the availability of junior and community colleges the other on changes in teen exposure to child labor laws the results suggest that educational attainment has large and statistically significant effects on subsequent voter participation and support for free speech i also find that additional schooling appears to increase the quality of civic knowledge as measured by the frequency of newspaper readership

human capital versus sorting the effects of compulsory attendance laws under the educational sorting hypothesis a state compulsory school attendance law will increase the educational attainment of high ability workers who are not directly affected hy the law under the human capital hypothesis such laws affect only those individuals whose hehavior is directly constrained we find that compulsory attendance laws do increase enrollment rates in age groups they do not affect directly thus our results contradict the human capital hypothesis and are consistent with the sorting hypothesis i introduction the last decade has seen considerable debate between supporters of the human capital and sorting models of education the former assert that the effect of education on wages reflects increased productivity the latter maintain that it reflects at least in part correlation between education and unobserved ability workers use education to signal their ability while employers use education to screen workers despite the importance of the debate no fully convincing tests of the hypotheses have been developed in fact many members of the profession maintain at least privately that these hypotheses cannot be tested against each other and that the debate must therefore be relegated to the realm of ideology in this paper we show that the models can be tested against each other by examining the effects of state compulsory school attendance laws we show that under the human capital hypotheis such laws will affect the educational attainment only of those who in the absence of the law would have left school prior to the minimum school leaving age on the other hand under the sorting hypothesis the effects of the law will percolate through the system increasing educational attainment even among workers not directly constrained by the law our results are consistent with the predictions of the sorting model

are positional concerns stronger in some domains than in others for more than one hundred years economists have discussed the concept of positional goods that the utility conferred by many perhaps even most goods depends not only on the amount the individual consumes but also on the amount others consume e g thorstein veblen 1899 james duesenberry 1949 john k galbraith 1958 robert frank 1985 while economic interest in positional goods is increasing e g mark pingle and mike mitchell 2002 kenneth arrow et al 2004 ed hopkins and tatiana kornienko 2004 the literature remains largely theoretical rather than empirical if status concerns affect all items in the utility function equally leisure as well as goods the positional effect would operate like a lump sum tax reducing well being without changing the allocation of time or money arrow et al 2004 however if positional concerns are stronger for some things than for others then in order to understand how people can become better off in well being not simply in wealth we must investigate how interpersonal competition interacts with material gains frank 1997 evidence about what goods are more positional than others is essential for correct policy recommendations gregory besharov 2002 but little is actually known about the relative positional rankings of items in the typical consumer s utility function four hypotheses proposed in the literature are

does education improve citizenship evidence from the united states and the united kingdom abstract many studies document an association between schooling and civic participation but none credibly investigate causal links we explore the effect of extra schooling induced through compulsory schooling laws on the likelihood of becoming politically involved in the united states and the united kingdom we find that educational attainment is related to several measures of political interest and involvement in both countries we find a strong and robust relationship between education and voting for the united states but not for the united kingdom our us results approach the uk findings when conditioning on registration possibly indicating that registration rules present a barrier to participation

the effect of taxation on human capital this study finds a significant negative effect of proportional income taxation on human capital of the few earlier studies to address this issue most suggested a negligible effect of taxation on investment in human capital this earlier conclusion is shown to be incorrect by using a model that is more general in several respects than the models used previously

education and optimal dynamic taxation the role of income contingent student loans we study the optimal design of integrated education finance and tax systems the distribution of wages is endogenously determined by the costly education decisions of heterogeneous individuals before labor market entry consistent with empirical evidence this human capital investment decision is risky we find that an integrated education and tax system in which the government provides education loans to young individuals coupled with income contingent repayment can always be designed in a pareto optimal way we present a simple empirically driven application of the framework to us data in which individuals make a college entry decision we find the optimal repayment schemes for college loans can be well approximated by a schedule that is linearly increasing in income up to a threshold and constant afterwards so although the full optimum could lead to complicated non linear schedules in theory very simple instruments can replicate it fairly well the welfare gains from income contingent repayment are significant

the crime reducing effect of education in this article we study the crime reducing potential of education presenting causal statistical estimates based upon a law that changed the compulsory school leaving age in england and wales we frame the analysis in a regression discontinuity setting and uncover significant decreases in property crime from reductions in the proportion of people with no educational qualifications and increases in the age of leaving school that resulted from the change in the law the findings show that improving education can yield significant social benefits and can be a key policy tool in the drive to reduce crime

schooling and citizenship in a young democracy evidence from postwar germany this paper examines whether schooling has a causal impact on individuals political interest voting turnout democratic values political involvement and political membership using two national representative samples between 1949 and 1969 the number of compulsory years of schooling was increased from eight to nine years in the federal republic of germany gradually over time and across federal states these legislative changes allow one to investigate the causal impact of years of schooling on citizenship in a young democracy years of schooling are found to be positively correlated with a broad range of citizenship outcomes however when exogenous increase in schooling through legislative changes is used there is little evidence of a causal efiect several potential explanations are examined 1 poor or apolitical teaching practices in the post war period 2 shortages of qualifled teachers and adequate teaching material 3 extra curricular civic education and 4 whether civic knowledge might have been acquired prior to the increase in schooling the estimates reject the flrst three explanations whereas ample historical evidence is in favour of the hypothesis that the fundamentals of democracy were learned already earlier in school

the nature of credit constraints and human capital we develop a human capital model with borrowing constraints explicitly derived from government student loan gsl programs and private lending under limited commitment the model helps explain the persistent strong positive correlation between ability and schooling in the u s as well as the rising importance of family income for college attendance it also explains the increasing share of undergraduates borrowing the gsl maximum and the rise in student borrowing from private lenders our framework ofiers new insights regarding the interaction of government and private lending as well as the responsiveness of private credit to economic and policy changes

the design of optimal education policies this paper studies the education policy chosen by a utilitarian government in the model households differ in their income and in their children s ability income is observed by the government but ability is private information households can use private education but cannot borrow to finance it the government can finance education with income tax but at the cost of blunting the individuals incentive to exert labour market effort the optimal education policy we derive is elitist it increases the spread between the educational achievement of the bright and the less bright individuals compared to private provision it is also such that the education received by less bright individuals depends positively on their parental income finally the optimal education policy is input regressive in the sense of arrow 1971 quarterly journal of economics 38 175 208 households with higher income and brighter children contribute less in tuition fees towards the cost of the education system than households with lower income and less bright children

the elasticity of taxable income with respect to marginal tax rates a critical review this paper critically surveys the large and growing literature estimating the elasticity of taxable income with respect to marginal tax rates using tax return data first we provide a theoretical framework showing under what assumptions this elasticity can be used as a sufficient statistic for efficiency and optimal tax analysis we discuss what other parameters should be estimated when the elasticity is not a sufficient statistic second we discuss conceptually the key issues that arise in the empirical estimation of the elasticity of taxable income using the example of the 1993 top individual income tax rate increase in the united states to illustrate those issues third we provide a critical discussion of selected empirical analyses of the elasticity of taxable income in light of the theoretical and empirical framework we laid out finally we discuss avenues for future research jel h24 h31 j22

ends against the middle determining public service provision when there are private alternatives abstract public provision of a service coexists with private market provision the quality of public provision is determined by majority vote preferences are not single peaked owing to the presence of private alternatives we identify two cases in one majority voting equilibrium always exists and the median income voter is pivotal in the other a necessary condition for equilibrium indentifies the pivotal voter who must have income below the median when equilibrium exists a coalition of middle income households who consume the public alternative will be opposed by a coalition of rich and poor households with the rich choosing private consumption

accounting for the changing role of family income in determining college entry in this paper i analyze the determinants of college enrolment and the changes in these determinants over time i propose a quantitative life cycle model with college enrolment altruistic parents provide financial support to their children using counterfactual experiments i find that 24 percent of all households are financially constrained in their college decision constraints become more severe over time i show that my model is consistent with a narrow college enrolment gap between students from rich and poor families as previously reported in the empirical literature the estimation of enrolment gaps is a popular reduced form approach for measuring the fraction of constrained households my results suggest that these reduced form estimates are misleading and that a structural model of parental transfers is needed to correctly identify constrained households further i show that parental transfers are an important driver behind the changing role of family income as a determinant of college entry a fact that is well documented for the us economy

estimating marginal returns to education this paper estimates marginal returns to college for individuals induced to enroll in college by different marginal policy changes the recent instrumental variables literature seeks to estimate this parameter but in general it does so only under strong assumptions that are tested and found wanting we show how to utilize economic theory and local instrumental variables estimators to estimate the effect of marginal policy changes our empirical analysis shows that returns are higher for individuals with values of unobservables that make them more likely to attend college we contrast our estimates with iv estimates of the return to schooling

revisiting the threshold effect of remittances on total factor productivity growth in south asia a study of bangladesh and india abstractboth bangladesh and india are among the top recipient of remittances in absolute terms however in relative terms remittances as a per cent of gdp the two countries stand at 6 1 and 2

the theory of reform and indian indirect taxes abstract given a set of value judgements an initial state and a model of the economy one can ask whether some feasible tax change would increase welfare we do this by defining the marginal cost in terms of welfare of raising an extra rupee from the i th good the inverse optimum problem is the calculation of non negative welfare weights on households which imply that the initial state is optimum if no such welfare weights exist then a pareto improvement is possible we illustrate the concepts and results using data from the indian economy for 1979 1980 directions of tax reform for a number of specific social welfare functions and for pareto improvements are presented

the economics of financing higher education different arguments exist pro and contra tax financed subsidies in higher education it has been argued that private incentives to study are sufficiently high while the financing of those subsidies can be deemed regressive as they are co financed by relatively poorer non students alternatively several arguments have been put forward why higher tax financed subsidies are desirable such as externalities and credit constraints this study scrutinizes these different arguments and discusses the implications for the different ways in which higher education can be financed calculations of private returns across the oecd confirm that private incentives to invest in higher education are high however economic theory poses that it is the marginal social return that must guide policy which will reflect both equity and efficiency considerations we assess the potential regressivity of higher education subsidies using different perspectives and assess the different efficiency arguments for government intervention in higher education tax financed subsidies turn out to be regressive in most cases but depending on the perspective and the country under examination discussion of the efficiency arguments is focused on those that are most relevant in light of the empirical evidence and their relevance for the different financing modes externalities uninsurable risk credit constraints and misprediction we conclude that to deal with the more credible failures in higher education tax financed subsidies are blunt instruments for a large share of the countries under consideration shifting towards income contingent loans or graduate taxes appears more appropriate when taking into account both efficiency and equity considerations

human capital risk and economic growth this paper develops a tractable incomplete markets model of economic growth in which households invest in risk free physical capital and risky human capital the paper shows that a reduction in uninsurable idiosyncratic labor income risk decreases physical capital investment but increases human capital investment growth and welfare a quantitative analysis based on a calibrated version of the model reveals that these effects are substantial and of the same order of magnitude as the effects of distortionary income taxation the analysis further suggests that government sponsored severance payments to displaced workers increase growth and welfare even if these payments have to be e nanced through distortionary income taxation

economics and identity this paper considers how identity a person s sense of self affects economic outcomes we incorporate the psychology and sociology of identity into an economic model of behavior in the utility function we propose identity is associated with different social categories and how people in these categories should behave we then construct a simple game theoretic model showing how identity can affect individual interactions the paper adapts these models to gender discrimination in the workplace the economics of poverty and social exclusion and the household division of labor in each case the inclusion of identity substantively changes conclusions of previous economic analysis

an empirical analysis of remittance flows into west african economic and monetary union a panel time series approach abstractthe article empirically analyses the motivations and long run economic outcomes of remittance inflows into the west african economic and monetary union using westerlund s 2007 ecm for panel time series and data spanning 1975 2011 the results show that there is no evidence of a long run impact of remittances on income per capita in the region the inflows seem to be motivated by investment but the money may be used to promote consumption instead this phenomenon could be characterized by information asymmetry between migrants and the recipients

the returns to education microeconomics in this paper we focus on education as a private decision to invest in human capital and the estimation of the rate of return to that private investment while the literature is replete with studies that estimate the rate of return using regression methods where the estimated return is obtained as the coefficient on a years of education variable in a log wage equation that contains controls for work experience and other individual characteristics the issue is surrounded with difficulties we outline the theoretical arguments underpinning the empirical developments and show that the evidence on private returns to the individual is compelling despite some of these issues surrounding the estimation of the return to schooling our evidence based on estimates from a variety of datasets and specifications is that there is an unambiguously positive effect on the earnings of an individual from participation in education moreover the size of the effect seems large relative to the returns on other investments

small differences that matter mistakes in applying to college in 1997 the act increased the number of free score reports it provided to students from three to four maintaining a 6 marginal cost for each additional report in response to this 6 cost change act takers sent many more score reports and applications relative to sat takers they widened the range of colleges they sent scores to and low income act takers attended more selective colleges back of the envelope calculations suggest that the policy substantially increased low income students expected earnings this sizable behavioral change in response to such a small cost change suggests that in this setting small policy perturbations can have large effects on welfare

on supply chain coordination for false failure returns a quantity discount contract approach abstract a large proportion of consumer returns fall into the category of false failure returns which refer to returns without functional defects in this paper we consider profits resulting from exerting costly effort to reduce false failure returns in a reverse supply chain the supply chain as a whole has a strong incentive to reduce such returns for cost saving however retailers typically enjoy a full credit provided by suppliers for returns so they may not have sufficient incentives to exert enough effort for supply chain profit maximization in some scenarios retailers may even have the motivation to encourage such returns we suggest using a coordination contract to resolve this profit conflict we introduce a quantity discount contract which specifies a payment to the retailer with an amount exponentially decreasing in the number of returns we present explicit forms of such contracts given different assumptions about the distribution of the number of returns we also prove that the contract is pareto improving besides it is shown that when the contract is applied in a closed loop supply chain it can deter retailer s potential incentive to encourage returns moreover some modifications of the contract can lead to easy allocation of supply chain profit

does education raise productivity or just reflect it education has an important effect on wages but it not clear whether this is because education raises productivity or because education is simply a signal of ability we implement a number of existing tests for discriminating between these two explanations and find that they do not support the signalling hypothesis however we have severe reservations about these results and we propose an alternative test based on changes in education incentives caused by changes in the minimum school leaving age in the 1970s using this idea we find that uk data appear to strongly support the human capital explanation an important issue in the economics of education is that an individual s education has an effect on wages paid in the labour market for example blundell et al 2003 uses detailed education and subsequent earnings information for a cohort of male individuals born in 1958 to estimate that the returns to a uk degree typically of 3 year duration relative to graduating from high school at 18 with 2 a level qualifications a necessary but not sufficient condition for admission to university is a 24 wage premium human capital explanations pioneered by becker 1962 and schultz 1963 suggest that the correlation between education and wages is due to education enhancing productivity however earnings may rise in response to education not because of any effect on productivity but simply because education may act as a signal of productivity employers believing that education is correlated with productivity will screen workers for their education and pay higher wages to the more educated the employers beliefs will be confirmed by their experience if it is the case that high productivity individuals signal this by choosing high levels of education it will be optimal for individuals to behave in this way if the cost of acquiring education is less for high productivity individuals than it is for low productivity individuals thus under reasonable conditions the market will be characterised by a separating equilibrium where higher productivity individuals choose higher levels of education than lower productivity workers and earn correspondingly higher wages the theory is largely due to spence 1973 1979 and the subsequent empirical literature was reviewed by groot and oosterbeek 1994 riley 2001 provides an excellent modern survey chevalier harmon and walker are fellows of iza in bonn and are affiliated with the institute for the study of social change issc in dublin this paper is part of the issc policy evaluation programme chevalier and walker are also affiliated with the centre for the economics of education at the london school of economics lse the support of all of these bodies for facilitating our collaboration is acknowledged harmon is grateful to university college london for their hospitality during his nuffield foundation new career development fellowship in the social sciences comments from steve machin and three anonymous referees greatly improved the exposition of this paper we are also grateful to richard blundell and to seminar participants at the lse and the tinbergen institute in amsterdam for their comments and to vincent o sullivan for excellent research assistance the usual disclaimer applies

study duration and earnings a test in relation to the human capital versus screening debate in this paper we propose a simple test in relation to the human capital versus screening debate it is argued that these theories lead to different predictions with respect to the earnings effects of deviations between actual and nominal durations of a study earnings and study duration equations are estimated to test these predictions the results support the human capital theory

identifying human capital externalities theory with applications the identification of aggregate human capital externalities is still not fully understood the existing mincerian approach confounds positive externalities with wage changes due to a downward sloping demand curve for human capital as a result the mincerian approach yields positive externalities even when wages equal marginal social products we propose an approach that identifies human capital externalities whether or not aggregate demand for human capital slopes downward another advantage of our approach is that it does not require estimates of the individual return to human capital applications to u s cities and states between 1970 and 1990 yield no evidence of significant average schooling externalities copyright 2006 wiley blackwell

subsidies for higher education who should pay the resource costs of higher education this paper investigates a simple model of the general equilibrium of the labor market with three skill levels those in the population with the lower level of intelligence and or sophistication can only become low skilled workers but the brighter segment of the population can become either high or medium skilled workers given the tax structure the welfare of each group is maximized by a unique subsidy rate on the cost of training high skilled workers under several circumstances the lower iq group wants a higher subsidy rate than will the group that benefits directly from the training

the effect of education on crime evidence from prison inmates arrests and self reports we estimate the effect of high school graduation on participation in criminal activity accounting for endogeneity of schooling we begin by analyzing the effect of high school graduation on incarceration using census data instrumental variable estimates using changes in state compulsory attendance laws as an instrument for high school graduation uncover a significant reduction in incarceration for both blacks and whites when estimating the impact of high school graduation only ols and iv estimators estimate different weighted sums of the impact of each schooling progression on the probability of incarceration we clarify the relationship between ols and iv estimates and show that the weights placed on the impact of each schooling progression can explain differences in the estimates overall the estimates suggest that completing high school reduces the probability of incarceration by about 76 percentage points for whites and 3 4 percentage points for blacks we corroborate these findings using fbi data on arrests that distinguish among different types of crimes the biggest impacts of graduation are associated with murder assault and motor vehicle theft we also examine the effect of drop out on self reported crime in the nlsy and find that our estimates for imprisonment and arrest are caused by changes in criminal behavior and not educational differences in the probability of arrest or incarceration conditional on crime we estimate that the externality of education is about 14 26 of the private return to schooling suggesting that a significant part of the social return to education comes in the form of externalities from crime reduction

the returns to education macroeconomics we offer an extensive summary and a critical discussion of the empirical literature on the impact of human capital on macro economic performance with a particular focus on uk policy we also highlight methodological issues and make recommendations for future research priorities taking the studies as a whole the evidence that human capital increases productivity is compelling though still largely divided on whether the stock of education affects the long run level or growth rate of gdp a one year increase in average education is found to raise the level of output per capita by between three and six percent according to augmented neo classical specifications while leading to an over one percentage point faster growth according to estimates from the new growth theories still over the short run planning horizon four years the empirical estimates of the change in gdp are of similar orders of magnitude in the two approaches the impact of increases at different levels of education appear to depend on the level of a country s development with tertiary education being the most important for growth in oecd countries education is found to yield additional indirect benefits to growth more preliminary evidence seems to indicate that type quality and efficiency of education matter for growth too

estimating individual discount rates in denmark a field experiment we estimate individual discount rates with respect to time streams of money using controlled laboratory experiments these discount rates are elicited by means of field experiments involving real monetary rewards the experiments were carried out across denmark using a representative sample of 268 people between 19 and 75 years of age individual discount rates are estimated for various households differentiated by socio demographic characteristics such as income and age our conclusions are that discount rates are constant over the 12 month to 3 year horizons used in these experiments and that discount rates vary substantially with respect to several socio demographic variables hence we conclude that it would be reasonable to assume constant discount rates for specific household types but not the same rates across all households

redistribution and education subsidies are siamese twins abstract we develop models of optimal linear and non linear income taxation with endogenous human capital formation to explore optimal education subsidies optimal subsidies on education ensure efficiency in human capital accumulation and thus play an important role in alleviating the tax distortions on learning induced by redistributive policies if the government cannot verify all investments in human capital education policy offsets some but not all tax induced distortions on learning non pecuniary educational costs benefits may increase decrease subsidies on education especially if they are complementary to work effort

an empirical analysis of acting white abstract using a newly available data set which allows one to construct a novel measure of a student s social status we demonstrate that there are potentially important racial differences in the relationship between social status and academic achievement the effect is concentrated among students with a grade point average gpa of 3 5 or higher and more pronounced in schools with more interracial contact earlier studies showing a positive relationship between popularity and academic achievement for blacks are sensitive to the inclusion of more continuous achievement measures we argue that the data are most consistent with a model of acting white in which investments in education are taken as a signal of one s opportunity costs of peer group loyalty though imprecise estimates make definitive conclusions difficult

sheepskin effects in the returns to education an examination of women and minorities recent confirmation of sheepskin effects in the returns to education for prime age white males has been taken as evidence of screening or signaling in the labor market the authors report evidence of sheepskin effects among women and minority males and demonstrate that they are somewhat smaller for lower diploma years but larger for higher diploma years than those of white males these are among the first broad based results confirming the frequent contention derived from signaling models that minorities have smaller returns to low productivity signals but larger returns to high productivity signals copyright 1991 by mit press

worker turnover at the firm level and crowding out of lower educated workers this paper investigates whether employers exploit cyclical downturns to improve the average skill level of their work force we use a unique dataset that contains information on workers jobs as well as firm characteristics our findings are that at each job level mainly lower educated workers leave during downturns furthermore at each level of job complexity workers with a higher education are not more productive than lower educated workers we find no evidence that higher educated workers crowd out lower educated workers during recessions

priceless the nonpecuniary benefits of schooling copyright 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 by the american economic association permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of american economic association publications for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not distributed for profit or direct commercial advantage and that copies show this notice on the first page or initial screen of a display along with the full citation including the name of the author copyrights for components of this work owned by others than aea must be honored abstracting with credit is permitted the author has the right to republish post on servers redistribute to lists and use any component of this work in other works for others to do so requires prior specific permission and or a fee permissions may be requested from the american economic association administrative office by going to the contact us form and choosing copyright permissions request from the menu copyright 2016 aea

income variance dynamics and heterogeneity recent theoretical work has shown the importance of measuring microeconomic uncertainty for models of both general and partial equilibrium under imperfect insurance in this paper the assumption of i i d income innovations used in previous empirical studies is removed and the focus of the analysis is placed on models for the conditional variance of income shocks which is related to the measure of risk emphasized by the theory we first discriminate amongst various models of earnings determination that separate income shocks into idiosyncratic transitory and permanent components we allow for education and time specific differences in the stochastic process for earnings and for measurement error the conditional variance of the income shocks is modelled as a parsimonious arch process with both observable and unobserved heterogeneity the empirical analysis is conducted on data drawn from the 1967 1992 panel study of income dynamics we find strong evidence of sizeable arch effects as well as evidence of unobserved heterogeneity in the variances

returns to investment in education a global update the author updates compilations of rate of return estimates to investment in education published since 1985 and discusses methodological issues surrounding those estimates some key patterns among the three main levels of education primary education continues to exhibit the highest social profitability in all world regions private returns are considerably higher than social returns because of the public subsidization of education the degree of public subsidy increases with the level of education which is regressive social and private returns at all levels generally decline by the level of a country s per capita income overall the returns to female education are higher than those to male education but at individual levels of education the pattern is more mixed the returns to the academic secondary school track are higher than the vocational track since unit cost of vocational education is much higher and the returns for those who work in the private competitive sector of the economy are higher than in the public noncompetitive sector and the returns in the self employment unregulated sector of the economy are higher than in the dependent employment sector controversies in the literature are discussed in the light of the new evidence the undisputable and universal positive correlation between education and earnings can be interpreted in many ways the causation issue on whether education really affects earnings can be answered only with experimental data generated by randomly exposing different people to various amounts of education given the fact that moral and pragmatic considerations prevent the generation of such pure data researchers have to make do with indirect inferences or natural experiments some have been attempted the author looks at the research on overeducation or surplus schooling the conclusions reinforce earlier patterns they confirm that primary education continues to be the number one investment priority in developing countries they also show that educating females is marginally more profitable than educating males that the academic secondary school curriculum is a better investment than the technical vocational tract and that the returns to education obey the same rules as investment in conventional capital that is they decline as investment is expanded