the shadow of death analysing the pre exit productivity of portuguese manufacturing firms the pre exiting productivity profile of mature firms relative to survivors is examined along with an evaluation of how productivity affects the probability of exit along various dimensions an empirical approach based on an unbalanced panel of portuguese manufacturing firms covering a 10 year period is used the findings confirm that market selection forces low productivity firms to exit but there is also evidence that a sizeable portion of low productivity firms do not shut down conversely there is a non negligible fraction of high productivity firms that do actually close consistent with some key theoretical predictions our analysis reveals that exiting firms have a falling productivity level over a number of years prior to exit finally the results from the survival model show that both small firms and ones with low productivity are relatively much more likely to exit the market industry and macro environment are also found to have a non negligible role on the exit of mature firms

an economic theory of self control the concept of self control is incorporated in a theory of individual intertemporal choice by modeling the individual as an organization the individual at a point in time is assumed to be both a farsighted planner and a myopic doer the resulting conflict is seen to be fundamentally similar to the agency conflict between the owners and managers of a firm both individuals and firms use the same techniques to mitigate the problems which the conflicts create this paper stresses the implications of this agency model and discusses as applications the effect of pensions on saving saving and the timing of income flows and individual discount rates

size age and firm growth in an infant industry the computer hardware industry in india abstract in contrast to the existing studies on the relationship of firm growth with size and age of the firm which typically focus on relatively mature industries in developed economies this study analyses firm growth patterns for an infant industry in a developing economy it is found that a age positively impacts growth which is the opposite of the result in previous studies b as in previous studies current size negatively impacts growth but the magnitude is much higher and c lagged size negatively impacts growth suggesting that fixed factors become a hindrance to growth in rapidly growing infant industries

does ict adoption improve access to credit for small enterprises using data at the bank firm level collected through the 9th unicredit survey conducted in 2012 on a large sample of small businesses we investigate the extent to which a large international bank offers better credit conditions to enterprises that use ict more extensively the results which are robust to selection and endogeneity issues show that banks tend to grant increasing volumes of credit to such enterprises we interpret this evidence as the ceteris paribus effect of ict adoption by small businesses on the quality of information transmitted to banks another possible interpretation is that banks consider ict adoption as a signal of firms willingness to innovate we also discuss implications concerning the key role that technology plays in changing the arm s length versus relationship lending paradigms

financial factors and investment in belgium france germany and the united kingdom a comparison using company panel data we construct company panel data sets for manufacturing firms in belgium france germany and the united kingdom covering the period 1978 1989 these data sets are used to estimate empirical investment equations and to investigate the role played by financial factors in each country a robust finding is that cash flow and profits terms appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more significant in the united kingdom than in the three continental european countries this is consistent with the suggestion that financial constraints on investment may be relatively severe in the more market oriented u k financial system

why have private savings rates in the united states and canada diverged abstract one of the central questions in macroeconomics for many years has been whether government policy can affect private saving rates and if so to what extent and through what channels the question has remained controversial because as with other macroeconomic questions experiments to check divergent hypotheses cannot be deliberately performed so economists must rely upon the often dubious evidence from the limited experiments with which nature and history have endowed us this paper discusses the results of an exceptionally good natural experiment that has been provided by canada and the u s over the past thirty five years after moving in tandem for almost twenty five years american and canadian private saving rates have diverged dramatically over the last decade the primary conclusion emerging from our analysis of this phenomenon is that tax policies can have a potent impact on private savings behavior differences in tax structures and in the interactions of taxation and inflation appear to be important factors explaining the divergent behavior of the american and canadian private savings rates recognizing the importance of asset revaluations caused partially but not entirely by tax effects also helps to explain the different behavior of u s and canadian savings there may also be a relationship between government deficits and the private savings differential

empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics abstract this paper considers two models of firm behavior that allow for heterogeneity among firms idiosyncratic or firm specific sources of uncertainty and discrete outcomes exit and or entry both the characteristics of firm level panel data sets and the nature of the questions we characteristically ask of them imply that models with these features are likely to underlie most detailed empirical work on microdata sets the models we consider are a bayesian learning model due to jovanovic 20 and a model of research and exploration due to ericson and pakes 11 the paper provides a simple set of empirical procedures to help determine which if either of these two models might be appropriate for alternative data sets we conclude by checking for the implications of the two models on an eight year panel of wisconsin firms the results indicate that one model is consistent with the data on manufacturing firms while the other is consistent with the data on retail trade journal of economic literature classification numbers c52 l60 l80

consumer response to tax rebates many households received income tax rebates in 2001 of 300 or 600 these rebates represented advance payments of the tax cut from the new 10 percent tax bracket based on a survey of a representative sample of households this paper finds that only 22 percent of households receiving the rebate would spent it instead they would either save it or use it to pay off debt this very low rate of spending represents a striking break with past behavior which would have suggested a much higher rate of spending the low spending rate implies that the tax rebate provided a very limited stimulus to aggregate demand this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

comparing the impact of credit constraints on the growth of smes in a transition country with an established market economy in this paper we compare the role of internal finance on the growth of firms between a leading transition country slovenia and an established market economy belgium we find that firms in slovenia are more sensitive to internal financing constraints than their belgian counterparts furthermore we find that de novo firms and firms with long term debt are most constrained and that micro and smes can face great difficulties in accessing external sources of finance foreign firms however are able to raise external finance and consequently their growth is less reliant on the availability of internal finance our findings appear to indicate that although slovenian firms are no longer recipients of soft budget constraints the financial environment is not yet fully functional

the influence of age on smes growth determinants empirical evidence this paper seeks to investigate whether age is a fundamental characteristic of the relationships between determinants and growth the empirical evidence obtained allows us to conclude that 1 age and size are restrictive factors of the growth of young smes but they are not important for the growth of old smes 2 cash flow and debt are of greater relative importance for growth in young smes than for growth in old smes 3 rd 4 interest on debt is of greater relative importance for diminished growth in young smes than for diminished growth in old smes and 5 r d intensity in situations of financial deficit is of greater relative importance for diminished growth in young smes than for diminished growth in old smes but only in context of high tech smes

effect of credit guarantee policy on survival and performance of smes in republic of korea this study evaluates the effect of credit guarantee on smes at the firm level to estimate the effect of credit guarantee we analyze relations between credit guarantee the survival of guaranteed firms and their productive performance the result indicates that credit guarantee frequency enabled guaranteed firms to achieve good performances in general on the contrary the effect of guarantee amounts is ambiguous in that there is difference between the contemporary effect and the lagged effect therefore we conclude that credit guarantee satisfied partially its goal to alleviate smes difficulty in acquiring finance and to stabilize employment

empirical patterns of firm growth and r d investment a quality ladder model interpretation we present a partial equilibrium model of endogenous firm growth with r d investment and stochastic innovation as the engines of growth drawing on the quality ladder models in the macro growth literature and the literature on patent races and the discrete choice models of product differentiation the model fits a number of empirical patterns well including i a skewed size distribution of firms with persistent differences in firm sizes ii firm growth independent of firm size as stated in the so called gibrat s law and iii r d investment proportional to sales

a reestimation of the evans jovanovic entrepreneurial choice model abstract the evans jovanovic finding that entrepreneurial ability and wealth are negatively correlated is puzzling we show that this may result from a downward bias in their wealth data using less biased wealth data we find a positive correlation which is theoretically more justifiable

on the relationship between firm size and export intensity export marketing literature supports the view that firm size is positively related to export intensity although the empirical findings have been mixed a number of theoretical arguments are used to support this proposition i e international marketing economies of scale limited managerial and financial resources of small firms decisionmaker s risk perception based on a large survey of the italian manufacturing industry the article falsifies the proposition and challenges some widely held assumptions in export marketing literature

firm growth and liquidity constraints a dynamic analysis using a large unbalanced panel data set of portuguese manufacturing firms surviving over the period from 1990 to 2001 the purpose of this paper is to examine whether liquidity constraints faced by business firms affect firm growth we use a gmm system to estimate a dynamic panel data model of firm growth that incorporates cash flow as a measure of liquidity constraints and persistence of growth the model is estimated for all size classes including micro firms our findings reveal that smaller and younger firms have higher growth cash flow sensitivities than larger and more mature firms this is consistent with the suggestion that financial constraints on firm growth may be relatively more severe for small and young firms nevertheless the same finding can be interpreted in a different way if we consider the more recent literature which interpret the higher investment cash flow sensitivity of younger and smaller firm in absence of financial market imperfection as the outcome of these firms reaction to the fact that realisation of their cash flows reveals them the direction to go in presence of uncertainty of their growth prospect besides firms that were small and young at the beginning of the sample period exhibited more persistent growth than those that were large and old finally these results have significant policy implications

are there non linearities between sme growth and its determinants a quantile approach this article uses quantile regressions to study the relationship between the growth of portuguese small and medium enterprises smes and its determinants to control a sample selection bias we use a two step estimation in the first stage we verified that past growth size age rd ii debt and rd iii age is a restrictive factor of portuguese sme growth only when there is an increase in size and iv cash flow although a determinant promoting portuguese sme growth regardless of the level of growth takes on greater importance when there is a reduction in size copyright 2010 the author 2010 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001 using questions expressly added to the consumer expenditure survey we estimate the change in consumption expenditures caused by the 2001 federal income tax rebates and test the permanent income hypothesis we exploit the unique randomized timing of rebate receipt across households households spent 20 to 40 percent of their rebates on nondurable goods during the three month period in which their rebates arrived and roughly two thirds of their rebates cumulatively during this period and the subsequent three month period the implied effects on aggregate consumption demand are substantial consistent with liquidity constraints responses are larger for households with low liquid wealth or low income

no deep pockets some stylized empirical results on firms financial constraints this paper is a survey of recent empirical work on financial constraints faced by firms it is organized as a series of stylized results which mirror what is generally understood about the severity of financial constraints and the effects that they have upon firms the review of the literature shows that a financial constraints are a widespread key concern for firms hindering their ability to carry out their optimal investment and growth trajectories and b the severity of such constraints depends on institutional and firm specific characteristics as well as on the nature of investment projects

did the 2008 tax rebates stimulate spending in an effort to bolster economic performance in light of a looming downturn in economic activity on february 13 2008 president george w bush signed the economic stimulus act of 2008 more than two thirds of the 152 billion bill consisted of economic stimulus payments to be sent beginning in may to approximately 130 million households to qualify recipients had to have a valid social security number an income tax liability or at least 3 000 of qualifying income that included earned income and some benefits from social security veterans affairs or railroad retirement and have filed a 2007 federal tax return for the most part those who filed as single individuals received between 300 and 600 while those who filed jointly received between 600 and 1 200 additionally parents with children under 17 who were eligible for a child tax credit and had a social security number received an extra 300 per child the tax rebate phased out at higher levels of income as the payment was reduced by 5 percent of the amount of adjusted gross income over 75 000 for singles or over 150 000 for married couples the treasury remitted payments either by direct deposit mainly in the first half of may or by mail mainly from mid may through mid july the effect of these stimulus payments depends on how much was spent this paper reports new survey evidence on the propensity of consumers to spend the 2008 rebate it also relates the survey evidence to aggregate data and to evidence about spending from the 2001 tax rebate

the relationship between firm growth size and age estimates for 100 manufacturing industries this study uses a sample of all firms operating in 100 manufacturing industries to examine some aspects of firm dynamics it finds that firm growth the variability of firm growth and the probability that a firm will fail decrease with firm age it also finds that firm growth decreases at a diminishing rate with firm size even after controlling for the exit of slow growing firms from the sample gibrat s law therefore fails although the severity of the failure decreases with firm size copyright 1987 by blackwell publishing ltd

the ricardian approach to budget deficits persistent budget deficits have increased economists interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy this paper develops the ricardian approach and contrasts it with standard models the discussion considers from major theoretical objections to ricardian equivalence finite lifetimes imperfect capital markets uncertainty about future taxes and incomes and the distorting effects of taxation the paper then considers empirical evidence on interest rates consumption and saving and current account deficits the conclusion is that the ricardian approach is a useful first order approximation and that this approach will probably become the benchmark model for assessing fiscal policy this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

age size growth and survival uk companies in the 1980s this paper examines growth and survival amongst quoted and unquoted u k companies in the period 1975 85 and compares the results with earlier u k and u s studies an examination of death rates shows that smaller companies had higher death rates but the largest and smallest companies were least vulnerable to takeover careful attention is therefore paid to problems of sample selection bias it is shown that smaller companies grew faster than larger companies that gibrat s law does not hold amongst smaller firms that age is negatively related to growth and that these results are not an artifact of sample selection bias copyright 1994 by blackwell publishing ltd

is the growth of small firms constrained by internal finance this paper examines the long standing theory that the growth of small firms is often constrained by the quantity of internal finance under plausible assumptions when financing constraints are binding an additional dollar of internal finance should generate slightly more than an additional dollar of growth in assets this quantitative prediction should not hold for the relatively small number of firms which access external equity we test these predictions with a panel of more than 1 600 small firms and find that the growth of most firms is constrained by internal finance our results have implications for several different research literatures including models of firm growth

peers at work we study peer effects in the workplace specifically we investigate whether how and why the productivity of a worker depends on the productivity of coworkers in the same team using high frequency data on worker productivity from a large supermarket chain we find strong evidence of positive productiv ity spillovers from the introduction of highly productive personnel into a shift worker effort is positively related to the productivity of workers who see him but not workers who do not see him additionally workers respond more to the presence of coworkers with whom they frequently interact we conclude that social pressure can partially internalize free riding externalities that are built into many workplaces jel j24 l81 m54

the growth of us credit unions abstract the growth of us credit unions during the 1990s is investigated empirically using univariate and multivariate cross sectional and panel estimation techniques univariate tests of the law of proportionate effect suggest that in general large credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts on average credit unions with above average growth in one period tended to experience below average growth in the next smaller credit unions tended to have more variable growth than large ones while credit unions share a common co operative philosophy they differ in terms of age profile scope for membership growth charter type and financial structure and performance in estimations of a multivariate growth model most of these characteristics are found to have a significant influence on the size growth relationship while large state chartered credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts the reverse was true for federally chartered credit unions in general if larger credit unions grew faster than smaller ones they tended to do so for specific reasons because their charters were less restrictive because they were more efficient or because they had a financial structure that was more conducive to growth therefore credit union growth was not random but highly systematic

business performance and angels presence a fresh look from france 2008 2011 business angels enjoy a strong reputation for being more efficient than other investors among policy makers practitioners and scholars however due to the limited availability of specific financial data previous research has barely assessed the impact of angels on companies performance this paper seeks to bridge this gap by providing evidence from a unique dataset made up of 432 angel backed french companies which are compared to two control groups one randomly selected and another one consisting of similar enterprises this double comparison process enables us to purge our analysis of structural effect and to demonstrate the importance of the methodology in generating the sample indeed the results we obtain significantly differ depending on the control group our results show that the positive influence of angels depends on the condition of the comparison the set of ba backed companies is more likely to exhibit superior performance when it is compared to a random sample whereas the companies performance is either identical or worse when it is compared to a sample composed of k nearest neighbors in addition using a quantile regression technique makes it possible to differentiate the effect of business angels based on the distribution of the value of the growth rate

crime and social interactions the high variance of crime rates across time and space is one of the oldest puzzles in the social sciences this variance appears too high to be explained by changes in the exogenous costs and benefits of crime we present a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross city variance of crime rates this model provides an index of social interactions which suggests that the amount of social interactions is highest in petty crimes moderate in more serious crimes and almost negligible in murder and rape

mental accounting and decision making the relationship between relative and absolute savings abstract the formation of mental accounts by individuals has been hypothesised to explain an apparent departure from rationality in certain decision making scenarios in particular the potential monetary saving on an item is viewed topically relative to the original expected cost of that item rather than relative to the original expected cost of all items purchased on the same shopping trip in other words in a number of contexts the relative saving to be made has been found to be more important than the absolute saving this paper extends previous experimental work by describing a new experiment that seeks to discover whether this mental accounting characteristic applies more widely we find that the effect is not detected as the level of absolute saving to be gained increases suggesting that topical accounts are less important in such contexts

conspicuous consumption and race using nationally representative data on consumption we show that blacks and hispanics devote larger shares of their expenditure bundles to visible goods clothing jewelry and cars than do comparable whites these differences exist among virtually all subpopulations are relatively constant over time and are economically large although racial differences in utility preference parameters might account for a portion of these consumption differences we emphasize instead a model of status seeking in which conspicuous consumption is used as a costly indicator of a household s economic position using merged data on race and state level income we demonstrate that a key prediction of the status signaling model that visible consumption should be declining in reference group income is strongly borne out in the data for each racial group moreover we show that accounting for differences in reference group income characteristics explains most of the racial difference in visible consumption

absenteeism efficiency wages and shirking we investigate the absence behaviour of workers when there is asymmetric information regarding worker health an individual s health is assumed to be private information to that individual and only observable to a third party at cost our aim is to complement the existing largely empirical studies of absence behaviour which have tended to treat the phenomenon exclusively as a labour supply decision on the part of workers cf allen 1981 barmby and treble 1991 barmby orme and treble 1991 and dunn and youngblood 1986 our approach is to draw out the interactive aspects of the employment relationship we assume that workers are ex ante uncertain as to their state of health and supply labour on the basis of an all or nothing utility maximising decision taken once a realisation of this state has been received utility is a function of income leisure and health and workers value leisure more the sicker they are firms are able to exert some control over individual behaviour by monitoring workers and threatening to fire shirkers that is workers absenting themselves with unacceptable sickness our model highlights an efficiency wage effect through which wages may be used as a method of absence control in particular the optimal response of the firm to an increase in the cost of monitoring is to discourage shirking by raising wages furthermore to the extent that

work environment and individual background explaining regional shirking differentials in a large italian firm the prevalence of shirking within a large italian bank appears to be characterized by significant regional differentials in particular absenteeism and misconduct episodes are substantially more prevalent in the south we consider a number of potential explanations for this fact different individual backgrounds group interaction effects sorting of workers across regions differences in local attributes different hiring policies and discrimination against southern workers our analysis suggests that individual backgrounds group interaction effects and sorting effects contribute to explaining the north south shirking differential none of the other explanations appears to be of first order importance i introduction whether individual behavior is determined by group interactions or by individual background is undoubtedly a fundamental question for the social sciences this question presented itself forcefully when we stumbled onto the following piece of evidence there appear to be significant regional differentials in the prevalence of shirking among the employees of a large italian bank in particular absenteeism and misconduct episodes are considerably more frequent in the southern branches of the bank in this paper we examine several potential explanations for this fact first individual preferences for shirking versus working may differ according to one s region of hirth we will refer to this hj othesis as one of different individual hackgrounds the second possibility is one of locational sorting low shirking types may tend to migrate to the north high shirking types may tend to migrate to the south or hoth third the northern and southern

the effect of liquidity constraints on consumption a cross sectional analysis this paper examines the effect of liquidity constraints on consumption expenditures using a single year cross section data set a reduced form equation for consumption is estimated on high saving households by the tobit procedure to account for the selectivity bias since high saving households are not likely to be liquidity constrained the estimated equation is an appropriate description of how desired consumption that would be forthcoming without liquidity constraints is related to the variables available in the cross section data when the reduced form equation is used to predict desired consumption the gap between desired consumption and measured consumption is most evident for young households

law finance and firm growth we investigate how differences in legal and financial systems affect firms use of external financing to fund growth we show that in countries whose legal systems score high on an efficiency index a greater proportion of firms use long term external financing an active though not necessarily large stock market and a large banking sector are also associated with externally financed firm growth the increased reliance on external financing occurs in part because established firms in countries with well functioning institutions have lower profit rates government subsidies to industry do not increase the proportion of firms relying on external financing the corporate finance literature suggests that market imperfections caused by conflicts of interest and informational asymmetries between corporate insiders and investors constrain firms in their ability to fund investment projects the magnitude of these imperfections depends in part on the effectiveness of the legal and financial systems because these systems differ across countries the literature implies that there should exist systematic cross country differences in firms ability to obtain external capital to finance investment in this paper we examine whether the underdevelopment of legal and financial systems does prevent firms in some countries from investing in potentially profitable growth opportunities in particular we focus on the use of long term debt or external equity to fund growth see our earlier work demirgut kunt and maksimovic 1996a which compares firms financial structures in developed and developing countries and finds the greatest difference to be in the provision of long term credit we estimate a financial planning model to obtain the maximum growth rate that each firm in our thirty country sample could attain without access to long term financing we then compare these predicted growth rates to growth rates realized by firms in countries with differing degrees of development in their legal and financial systems our approach enables us to identify specific characteristics of the legal and financial systems that are associated with long term financing of firm growth thus we provide a micro level test of the hypoth

the behavioral life cycle hypothesis self control mental accounting and framing are incorporated in a behavioral enrichment of the life cycle theory of saving called the behavioral life cycle blc hypothesis the key assumption of the blc theory is that households treat components of their wealth as nonfungible even in the absence of credit rationing specifically wealth is assumed to be divided into three mental accounts current income current assets and future income the temptation to spend is assumed to be greatest for current income and least for future income considerable empirical support for the blc theory is presented primarily drawn from published econometric studies

growth acquisition activity and firm size evidence from the united kingdom this paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between size growth and acquisition activity of quoted companies in the united kingdom the evidence is based on some two thousand companies and covers the period i960 76 there has been no detailed systematic study for this period the results suggest some revisions to generally accepted views in the area and they have certain implications for industrial and competition policy pursued in the u k and the factors affecting aggregate concentration the paper is arranged as follows section i considers the broader economic context for the study whilst section ii notes some a priori expectations regarding the relationship between size and growth and size and acquisition activity sections iii v present empirical evidence and the last section provides a summary and policy implications of the results

social interactions in labor supply our research examines the effect of interdependence on estimation and interpretation of earnings labor supply equations we consider the cases of 1 a positive spillover from others labor supplied and 2 a need for conformity with others labor supplied qualitative and quantitative comparative statics results with a stone geary utility function demonstrate how spillover effects increase labor supply uniformly alternatively conformity effects move labor supplied toward the mean of the reference group so that in the limit labor supply becomes perfectly inelastic at the reference group average when there are unmodeled exogenous social interactions conventional wage elasticities are still relatively well estimated although structural parameters may not be omitting endogenous social interactions may seriously misrepresent the labor supply effects of policy however jel d11 j22 z13

size growth and transnationality among the world s largest banks this essay investigates the relationship between size and growth rate of large international banks and then relates these to the banks degree of transnationality we test two sets of three propositions each the first three propositions are pi that the growth rate of each bank over some period is independent of its size p2 that the variability of growth rates is independent of the banks size and p3 that the banks growth rates in two consecutive periods are independent of each other the second three propositions are p4 that there is no association between size and transnationality p5 that transnationality and growth are independent and p6 that there is no relationship between transnationality and the variability of growth rates the growth referred to is primarily that of assets as a measure of size for the two propositions concerning the variability of growth rates we supplement this measure with one of the market value of the banks equity the results have implications for concentration in internathis paper investigates six propositions relating to gibrat s law of proportionate growth the growth referred to is that of book assets and total market value the results have implications for concentration in international banking and for depositor safety and the social cost of insuring it and provide evidence on economies of scale and on the transnational spread of the industry

the persistence and dynamics of new venture growth extensive research has suggested that new ventures growth rates lack persistence however existing studies tend not to differentiate between positive and negative growth rates or examine their respective persistence and dynamics building on performance feedback theory we show that positive and negative growth rates exhibit different dynamics over time especially negative growth rates are less likely to persist and more likely to reverse than positive ones furthermore firm size and team size influence the persistence or the lack of thereof of both positive and negative growth rates specifically new ventures that are smaller as well as those managed by larger teams are more likely to maintain positive growth and reverse negative growth relative to their respective counterparts overall this study suggests that positive and negative growth rates differ in their persistence and that new ventures can shape the dynamics of both positive and negative growth

ambiguous information permanent income and consumption fluctuations abstract this paper studies asymmetric responses in consumption where the asymmetries are endogenously generated by agents preferences and incomplete knowledge about information quality agents form expectations about the future based on incomplete information which is assumed to be ambiguous and these future expectations distorted by ambiguity affect spending asymmetrically with a noisy signal of uncertain quality consumption features asymmetric responses the absolute size of the responses depends on whether the signal delivers good or bad news i estimate the model on the data for g7 countries by maximum likelihood and the estimation results suggest that the ambiguity mechanism plays a modest role in driving observed skewness in the data

social security benefits consumption expenditure and the life cycle hypothesis this paper examines the impact of changes in social security benefits on aggregate consumption expenditure under the null hypothesis there should be no contemporaneous effect at the monthly frequency because increases in benefits have always been announced at least 6 weeks prior to payment the paper develops overwhelming evidence contrary to the null that benefits have affected aggregate spending the results have strong implications for several important issues including ricardian equivalence government policy irrelevance and the excess sensitivity of consumption to changes in income

the role of information and social interactions in retirement plan decisions evidence from a randomized experiment this paper analyzes a randomized experiment to shed light on the role of information and social interactions in employees decisions to enroll in a tax deferred account tda retirement plan within a large university the experiment encouraged a random sample of employees in a subset of departments to attend a benee ts information fair organized by the university by promising a monetary reward for attendance the experiment multiplied by more than e ve the attendance rate of these treated individuals relative to controls and tripled that of untreated individuals within departments where some individuals were treated tda enrollment e ve and eleven months after the fair was signie cantly higher in departments where some individuals were treated than in departments where nobody was treated however the effect on tda enrollment is almost as large for individuals in treated departments who did not receive the encouragement as for those who did we provide three interpretations differential treatment effects social network effects and motivational reward effects to account for these results

the sensitivity of consumption to transitory income estimates from panel data on households we investigate the stochastic relation between income and consumption specifically consumption of food within a panel of about 2 000 households our major findings are 1 consumption responds much more strongly to permanent than to transitory movements of income 2 the response to transitory income is nonetheless clearly positive 3 a simple test independent of our model of consumption rejects a central implication of the pure life cycle permanent income hypothesis the observed covariation of income and consumption is compatible with pure life cycle permanent income behavior on the part of80 percent of families and simple proportionality of consumption and income among the remaining 20 percent as a general matter our findings support the view that families respond differently to different sources of income variations in particular temporary income tax policies have smaller effects on consumption than do other more permanent changes in income of the same magnitude this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

asymmetric responses to income changes the payroll tax increase versus tax refund in 2013 abstract we examine low to middle income individuals responses to the 2013 payroll tax increase and their 2012 tax refund and find that consumption declines 90 cents per dollar lost to the tax increase and rises 60 cents per additional tax refund dollar

discounting financial literacy time preferences and participation in financial education programs many policymakers and economists argue that financial literacy is key to financial well being but why do many individuals remain financially illiterate despite the benefits of being financially informed this paper presents results from a field study linking individual decisions to acquire financial information to a normally unobservable characteristic time preferences we elicited time preferences using incentivized choice experiments for all individuals to whom a financial education program was offered our results show that individuals who choose to acquire personal financial information have substantially higher discount factors than individuals who do not the results can be interpreted as non participants discount the benefits of being financially literate more

sensitivity to market incentives the case of policy loans the standard neoclassical theory is rejected as an explanation for the observed reluctance of most holders of whole life insurance to borrow against the cash value of their policies at favorable rates of interest even when the neoclassical theory is augmented with transactions costs and short awareness lags several empirical tests using survey and time series data reject the standard theory in favor of an explanation invoking self imposed rules against borrowing or the debt ethic this evidence lends support to the psychology based theories of thaler and shefrin 1981 copyright 1987 by mit press

do labor tax rebates facilitate firm growth an empirical study on french establishments in the manufacturing industry 2004 2011 in order to reduce labor costs and stimulate job creation many governments implement a large set of devices mainly consisting in reduced rates of social contributions the evaluation of their effect is still controversial unlike previous research our purpose is to appraise to what extent firm growth reacts to a decrease in the cost of labor per employee we tackle this question using an unbalanced panel of french establishments operating in the manufacturing industry between 2004 and 2011 we run estimations using a 2 step estimator making it possible to estimate the impact of explanatory variables on job creation at any point of the distribution of establishments employment growth rate while also controlling for individual fixed effects component our results show that the effect of the decrease in the labor cost generated by tax rebates mainly benefits fast growing and large establishments indeed the change in the number of employees in other establishments is significantly less affected even though the effect remains positive by the reduction in social contributions this is particularly the case for smaller establishments as well as for those whose growth is stagnant or negative these results lead us to reconsider the relevance of large scale policies aiming at reducing labor costs in the same way for all establishments regardless of their size or financial health

do liquidity constraints matter in explaining firm size and growth some evidence from the italian manufacturing industry the paper investigates whether liquidity constraints affect firm size and growth dynamics using a large longitudinal sample of italian manufacturing firms we run standard panel data gibrat regressions suitably expanded to take into account liquidity constraints proxied by cash flow scaled by firm sales moreover we characterize the statistical properties of fi rms size growth age and scaled cashflow distributions pooled data show that i liquidity constraints engender a negative statistically significant effect on growth once one controls for size ii smaller firms grow more and experience more volatile growth patterns after controlling for liquidity constraints iii the stronger liquidity constraints the more size negatively affects firm growth we find that pooled size distributions depart from log normality and growth rates are well approximated by fat tailed tent shaped laplace densities we also study the evolution of growth size distributions over time our exercises suggest that the strong negative impact of liquidity constraints on firm growth which was present in the pooled sample becomes ambiguous when one disaggregates across years finally firms who were young and strongly liquidity constrained at the beginning of the sample period grew persistently more than those who were old and weakly liquidity constrained

long lasting bank relationships and growth of firms a puzzling but consistent result in the empirical literature on banking is that firms with close bank ties do not grow faster than bank independent firms in this paper we reconsider the link between relationship lending and firm growth distinguishing firms by size and expansion contraction conditions the idea is that the beneficial effects of relationship lending on information asymmetries can be compensated by other negative capture risk and externality effects which make relational banks reluctant to support long term growth projects of client firms and that the strength of these compensating effects varies with firm size and health status we explore the influence of long lasting bank relationships on employment and asset growth of a large sample of italian firms the main finding is that relationship lending hampers the efforts of small firms to increase their size while it mitigates the negative growth of troubled medium large enterprises

the role of demographics in small business loan pricing demographic change influences the structure of the entrepreneurially active population which may affect credit risk and financing conditions of small firms using bank internal data of small business loans in germany we find that the lending relationship plays a larger role for loan prices than demographics loan rates decrease with soft information gained through longer loan processing time and a larger number of accounts at the same bank they increase with hard information about repayment arrears and reminders late payments have the largest influence on loan prices older entrepreneurs do not seem to be discriminated rather the younger have to pay more because their loans and businesses are smaller and they lack liquidity to pay in time marital status and population density of the business district do not matter this is good news for aging economies with a rising share of elderly and singles and growing disparities between peripheral and agglomerated regions

firm growth and liquidity constraints evidence from the manufacturing and service sectors in italy abstractwe use a large firm level panel data set to analyse the relevance of liquidity constraints on firm growth in italy in most european countries mainstream financial institutions are scantly able to provide affordable credit facilities to small firms thus these firms are forced to finance their growth almost exclusively through retained earnings we estimate a dynamic version of gibrat law incorporating cash flow as a measure of financial constraints for two different size classes within small and medium size enterprises and for several industries in manufacturing and service sectors the findings show that in general small manufacturing firms have higher growth cash flow sensitivities with respect to medium firms conversely our results highlight for the services a significant heterogeneity in the impact of liquidity constraints on firm growth in particular the sensitivity of growth rates to the cash flow appears relatively high for small firms belonging to knowledge intensive business

corporate structure liquidity and investment evidence from japanese industrial groups this paper presents evidence suggesting that information and incentive problems in the capital market affect investment we come to this conclusion by examining two sets of japanese firms the first set has close financial ties to large japanese banks that serve as their primary source of external finance and are likely to be well informed about the firm the second set of firms has weaker links to a main bank and presumably faces greater problems raising capital investment is more sensitive to liquidity for the second set of firms than for the first set the analysis also highlights the role of financial intermediaries in the investment process

are business startups debt rationed using a large random sample of u k start ups and a rich data set the paper demonstrates that human capital is the true determinant of survival and that the correlation between financial capital and survival is spurious provision of finance is demand driven with banks supplying funds elastically and business requests governing take up firms self select for funds on the basis of the human capital endowments of the proprietors with better businesses more likely to borrow a reason why others have seemingly identified start up debt gaps may be the failure to test a sufficiently rich empirical model copyright 1996 by royal economic society

investment and financial constraints in transition economies micro evidence from poland the czech republic bulgaria and romania we investigate to what extent firm investment in transition countries is sensitive to internal finance we find that firms in bulgaria and romania are less sensitive to internal financing constraints in contrast to firms in poland and the czech republic a likely explanation is that bulgaria and romania experience a stronger persistence of soft budget constraints than the other two more advanced countries

does firm size matter evidence on the impact of liquidity constraints on firm investment behavior in germany abstract this paper examines the link between liquidity constraints and investment behavior for german firms of different sizes from 1970 to 1986 results indicate that medium sized firms appear to be more liquidity constrained in their investment behavior than either the smallest or largest firms in the study suggesting that the unique german infrastructure designed to assist the small firm has indeed succeeded in alleviating to some degree such liquidity constraints findings also support the hypothesis that the emerging competition and internationalism which characterized the german financial markets in the 1980s have been improving access to capital for some groups of firms

teams teamwork and absence we argue that firms with interdependent worker productivity team production have a higher cost of absence and as a consequence spend additional resources on monitoring absence as a result firms with team production should have lower absence rates we estimate the determinants of absence for blue collar workers using a sample of german manufacturing establishments workplace teams are used as a proxy for team production the estimates reveal that firms with teams have lower absence rates as do smaller establishments the size effect however is unique to establishments with teams which fits prior theoretical work that has not been previously tested

saving in developing countries theory and review in the literature on economic development much of the interest in saving has been focused on the relation between saving and growth but saving is not only about accumulation it is about smoothing consumption in the face of volatile and unpredictable income and helping to ensure the living standards of poor people whose lives are difficult and uncertain this paper develops a model of households which cannot borrow but which accumulate assets as a buffer stock to protect consumption when incomes are low such households dissave as often as they save do not accumulate assets over the long term and have on average very small asset holdings but their consumption is markedly smoother than their income much of the evidence is as consistent with this view of saving as it is incosistent with standard views of smoothing over the life cycle and with explanations of the link between saving and growth in terms of life cycle saving behavior consumption smoothing is also a useful way of thinking about government policy where volatility in the world prices of taxed commodities can generate sharp fluctuations in government revenues as well as reallocations of revenue between the private and public sectors many important policy issues in developing countries hinge on issues of consumption and smoothing and research on these issues is currently likely to be more productive than work on the relation between saving and growth

does securities regulation constrain small business finance an empirical analysis in november 2001 the canadian province of ontario amended the private placement regulations considerably to facilitate access to equity financing by small and medium sized enterprises smes to determine the extent to which securities regulation is an effective constraint on financing of growth corporations we analyze issue activity before and after this change took effect we note an increase in the number of issues but only a slight increase in the total amounts raised on the private market following the reform the average size of the issues has thus decreased some of the observed changes can be traced to concurrent events namely the burst of the technology bubble and the strong increase in the prices of natural resources which represent a major sector in canada when we control for various factors that influence issue activity we observe a statistically significant effect only on the number of issues by closed corporations which seems to originate from the non resource companies these results do not rule out the conclusion that the reform eased the issue of small amounts of money by private companies however our results do not confirm the argument that securities regulation is a major constraint to small business finance

interdependence in worker productivity this paper investigates interactions between co worker productivity levels in a rich empirical context workers have unambiguous output measures compensation that depends on individual and group output to differing degrees and potential peers beyond their immediate work group important productivity interdependencies exist which could arise from the group based component of compensation peer pressure common supervisors or information exchanges but not group based output or technological interdependence workers with the strongest individual incentives seem least sensitive to these interactions in contrast they are important to workers with no individual incentives for these workers peer pressure must be a powerful influence copyright 2003 john wiley sons ltd

looking after number two competition cooperation and workplace interaction abstract we look for cooperation in a real world setting in which optometrists absent less frequently in two chair than one chair offices because of the externality such behavior imposes on their co worker we motivate our empirical analysis by developing a model of worker interdependence in which two workers can either compete or cooperate we show that relative to a single worker working in isolation competition unequivocally increases absence whilst cooperation may increase or decrease absence our empirical analysis of a unique data set finds explicit support for cooperative behavior

growing firms and the credit constraint restricted access to finance either debt or equity or both is potentially a significant constraint on the growth of small businesses financing problems arise primarily as a consequence of information asymmetries the adverse effects of these may in part be counteracted by the use of collateral as a signalling and bonding mechanism and or by the development of a good working relationship between lender and borrower if the form of information asymmetry differs for growth firms or if the effects of information asymmetries are less easily ameliorated then growing firms may be more adversely affected by credit constraints if growth is contingent upon access to credit then the generalised implications for the economy may be significant and detrimental using evidence from a survery of over 6 000 firms conducted in 1992 this paper addresses the extent to which growth firms are adversely affected by a credit constraint the results suggest that the credit constraint for growing firms per se is no greater but growth firms may still experience a credit constraint as a consequence of their relative youth however there is evidence to suggest that firms expecting to grow in the future do perceive a rather tighter credit constraint but this may be partly or wholly offset by a generally better relationship with their bank

investment cash flow sensitivities are useful a comment on kaplan and zingales arecent paper in this journal by kaplan and zingales reexamines a subset of erms from work of fazzari hubbard and petersen and criticizes the usefulness of investment cash eow sensitivities for detecting enancing constraints we show that the kaplan and zingales theoretical model fails to capture the approach employed in the literature and thus does not provide an effective critique moreover we describe why their empirical classiecation system is eawed in identifying both whether erms are constrained and the relative degree of constraints across erm groups we conclude that their results do not support their conclusions about the usefulness of investment cash eow sensitivities in a recent paper in this journal kaplan and zingales 1997 hereinafter kz argue that investment cash eow sensitivities do not provide useful evidence about the presence of enancing constraints because kz use a subset of the same erms and the same regressions as fazzari hubbard and petersen 1988 hereinafter fhp and claim page 176 that fhp can legitimately be considered the parent of all papers in this literature it is appropriate that we respond based on a simple theoretical model kz reach the provocative conclusion page 211 that the investment cash eow sensitivity criterion as a measure of enancial constraints is not well grounded in theory in section i we show that the kz model does not capture the theoretical approach employed in fhp and many subsequent studies most of the kz paper attempts to show that empirical investment cash eow sensitivities do not increase monotonically with the degree of enancing constraints within the 49 low dividend erms from the fhp sample in section ii we explain why the kz classiecation of the degree of constraints is eawed in identifying both whether or not erms are constrained absolute constraints as well as the relative degree of constraints across erms as a result we argue in section iii that there is no expected ex ante pattern for the

financial constraints and firm dynamics this study analyzes the effect of financial constraints fcs on firm dynamics we measure fcs with an official credit rating which captures availability and cost of external resources we find that fcs undermine average firm growth induce anti correlation in growth patterns and reduce the dependence of growth volatility on size fcs are also associated with higher volatility and asymmetries in growth shock distributions preventing young fast growing firms especially from seizing attractive growth opportunities and further deteriorating the growth prospects of already slow growing firms particularly if old the sub diffusive nature of the growth process of constrained firms is compatible with the distinctive properties of their size distribution

social interactions and schooling decisions abstract the aim of this paper is to study whether a child s schooling choices are affected by the schooling choices of other children identification is based on a randomized targeted intervention that grants a cash subsidy conditional on school attendance to a subgroup of eligible children within small rural villages in mexico progresa this policy change spills over to ineligible children if social interactions are relevant results indicate that the eligible children tend to attend school more frequently and the ineligible children acquire more schooling when the subsidy is introduced in their local village moreover the overall effect of progresa on eligible children is the sum of a direct effect due to cash transfers and an indirect effect due to changes in peer group schooling interestingly the social interactions effect is almost as important as the direct effect

asymmetric consumption effects of transitory income shocks we use the responses of a representative sample of dutch households to survey questions that ask how much their consumption would change in response to unexpected transitory income shocks positive or negative the questionnaire also distinguishes between relatively small income changes a one month increase or drop in income and relatively larger ones equal to three months income the results are broadly in line with models of intertemporal choice with precautionary saving borrowing constraints and finite horizons

how sensitive is investment to cash flow when financing is frictionless i analyze the sensitivity of a rm s investment to its own cash ow in the benchmarkcase where nancing is frictionless this sensitivity has been proposed as a measure of nancing constraints in earlier studies i nd that the investment cash ow sensitivities that obtain in the frictionless benchmarkare very similar both in magnitude and in patterns they exhibit to those observed in the data in particular the sensitivity is higher for rms with high growth rates and low dividend payout ratios tobin s q is shown to be a more noisy measure of near term investment plans for these rms does a high sensitivityof a rm s investment to its own cash ow indicate that the rm is nancially constrained a large body of research starting with fazzari hubbard and petersen 1988 hereafter fhp suggests that rms facing nancing constraints should exhibit high investment cash ow sensitivities re ecting the wedge between the costs of external and internal funds empirical ndings seem to give support to this hypothesis since rms classi ed as constrained on a priori criteria such as size dividend payout or leverage do have higher cash ow sensitivities even after controlling for their investment opportunities by conditioning on tobin s q however the reliability of these results critically depends on whether q is a proper control for the investment opportunity set if q performs worse for certain classes of rms higher sensitivities may obtain for these rms simply because cash ow re ects information about investment opportunities this critique is not new in his discussion of fhp poterba 1988 was the rst to point out that measurement error in q may cloud the empirical results similar concerns have been raised in subsequent studies as well while the qualitative point is well known its quantitative impact on the investment cash ow sensitivity has not been analyzed can the linkbetween cash ow and the investment opportunity set account for the observed magnitudes of the sensitivity or are these magnitudes too large to be explained without nancing frictions

private sector employment growth 1998 2004 a panel analysis of british workplaces using nationally representative panel data for british private sector workplaces this paper points to the importance of distinguishing between workplace and firm size when analysing employment growth and finds that the factors associated with growth differ markedly between single independent establishments and those belonging to multi site firms results also differ according to whether one adjusts for sample selection arising from workplace survival and according to whether one distinguishes between growth per se and internal organic employment growth we find evidence at the plant level that is consistent with creative job destruction