on the relationship between growth and volatility abstract we study the relationship between output growth and output variability in a simple stochastic monetary growth model with nominal rigidities and learning by doing we show that this relationship may be positive or negative depending on the impulse source of fluctuations

monetary policy macro stability and growth there is greater appreciation now amongst economists of the negative effect of uncertainty on investment growth and equality especially when credit constraints are widespread this implies an important linkage between the transparency and predictability of the policy environment and growth and equality the paper begins with a literature survey on the inflation and inflation volatility link the uncertainty and investment link and the inflation volatility and growth link this framework is used to examine the experience of south africa s new monetary policy regime inflation targeting it in achieving greater macrostability south africa is an interesting case study being one of the more advanced of the emerging markets with its deep and sophisticated financial system and yet with around 35 percent unemployment and a legacy of developmental problems from the apartheid era the authors demonstrate using evidence from three sources of micro data that the new monetary regime is more credible transparent and predictable they examine the performance of monetary policy and argue it has not resulted in real interest rate levels that are a hindrance to growth they explore the better response under it to big external shocks like exchange rate depreciation as compared with the monetary regime prior to it the paradox is examined of success in achieving macro stability where greater household acquisition of debt and increased demand is both inflationary and limits saving hence constraining corporate investment the paper concludes with lessons from south africa s recent successful monetary policy experience for other emerging market countries and for less developed countries central banks e g in africa

getting deals done the use of social networks in bank decision making economic actors confront various forms of uncertainty making decisions and how they deal with these obstacles may affect their success in accomplishing their goals this study examines the means by which relationship managers in a major commercial bank attempt to close transactions with their corporate customers it is hypothesized that under conditions of high uncertainty bankers will rely on colleagues with whom they are strongly tied for advice on and support of their deals drawing on recent network theory it is also hypothesized that transactions in which bankers use relatively sparse approval networks are more likely to successfully close than are transactions involving dense approval networks both hypotheses are supported bankers are faced with a strategic paradox their tendency to rely on those they trust in dealing with uncertainty creates conditions that render deals less likely to be closed successfully this paradox represents an example of unanticipated consequences of purposive social action

inflation and growth stories short and tall this paper reviews the stories that economists tell about the growth effects of inflation informal accounts are common but there are few models that get to grips with the effects that are probably central partly as a result of this and partly as a result of many econometric problems much of the empirical evidence remains unconvincing the paper assesses the various contributions and suggests possible improvements

real and nominal shocks in a two country price setting world abstract this paper develops a two country model in which the law of one price does not hold in the short run and which is consistent with the stylized fact that exchange rates respond more quickly to news than prices this is done by assuming that firms face lumpy information costs in determining what price to charge both domestic and imported goods prices are therefore sticky with respect to news and deviations from the law of one price ppp are due to exchange rate surprises the model is used to analyze the domestic and international impact of real and nominal disturbances

nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long run effects of inflation on growth abstract in this paper we adopt both a nonparametric and a semiparametric iv estimator to show that the relationship between inflation and output growth is non linear and that there exists a threshold level below which inflation has no effects on growth

measuring and explaining the impact of productive efficiency on economic development a limitation of most empirical cross country studies that focus on determinants of gross domestic product gdp is that they fail to distinguish explicitly between inputs used in production and conditions that facilitate production for example physical capital human capital and labor are production inputs whereas the quality of institutions macroeconomic stability and market quality are conditions that facilitate production this article takes this distinction seriously and uses a stochastic frontier approach to study factors affecting economic performance a panel data set of 71 countries for the 1980 98 periods is used to estimate a production frontier with physical capital human capital and labor as inputs the article also analyzes what drives productive efficiency using the institutional framework macroeconomic stability market quality and urbanization as possible explanatory factors urbanization turns out to be an important determinant with the rule of law inflation rate and market quality also affecting productive efficiency

inflation thresholds and the finance growth nexus abstract the robustness of the cross sectional relationship between the size of a country s financial sector and its rate of economic growth is by now well established in this article we examine whether the strength of this relationship varies with the inflation rate using five year averages of standard measures of financial development inflation and growth for 84 countries from 1960 to 1995 a series of rolling panel regressions show that there is an inflation threshold for the finance growth relationship that lies between 13 and 25 percent when inflation exceeds the threshold finance ceases to increase economic growth we also find that the level of financial depth varies inversely with inflation in low inflation environments and that disinflation is associated with a positive effect of financial depth on growth

crises and human capital accumulation this paper studies the effects of crises on human capital formation theoretically a crisis undermines total factor productivity which reduces the return to working and to accumulating physical capital if the crisis is temporary young agents will study now and work later human capital rises to test our model we rely on inflation crises as our main empirical proxy using gmm panel procedures our analysis for 86 countries in 1970 2000 confirms the positive effects of crises on human capital our main findings survive several robustness tests jel classification e31 d90 ce memoire etudie les effets des crises sur la formation de capital humain theoriquement une crise mine la productivite totale des facteurs de production ce qui reduit le rendement sur le travail et l accumulation du capital physique si la crise est temporaire les jeunes agents vont alors se mettre aux etudes et decident de travailler plus tard le capital humain s accroit pour mettre au test ce modele on etudie les crises inflationnistes comme reference a l aide des procedures d analyse de donnees de panels a la gmm l etude de 86 pays pour la periode 1970 2000 confirme les effets positifs des crises sur le capital humain les principaux resultats survivent bien a divers tests de robustesse

getting a bonus social networks performance and reward among commercial bankers research on the effects of social networks on individual status attainment has exploded in recent years but the results remain equivocal varying across network structures types of ties and outcome variables the focus in this literature has been on two primary outcomes performance benefits and rewards including promotion and compensation these two types of outcomes have often been conflated however despite the fact that high levels of one do not guarantee high levels of the other we examined the effects of job performance network tie strength and network structures on the size of the year end bonuses received by 71 relationship officers in a major multinational commercial bank we found that in networks based on information acquisition both strong ties and sparse networks are positively associated with high bonuses as is the combination of the two in networks based on approval and support for one s deals neither tie strength nor density predicts bonus size but the benefits of strong ties increase as network density increases our results demonstrate the importance of distinguishing networks based on collegial relations from those based on authority as well as the importance of distinguishing the network factors that improve performance from those that generate favorable evaluations independent of performance

inflation output and uncertainty in the era of inflation targeting a multi economy view on causal linkages abstract this study provides cross country robust evidence on interdependencies among inflation output growth and respective uncertainties for the current era of low inflation policies we attribute the extant empirical disagreement on these relations to the fact that long sampling periods and single economies are typically considered for analysis in this study varx mgarch m models are estimated for 34 developed and emerging economies and the time period of 1990 2010 we study average granger causal effects by aggregating parameter estimates over economies the cross sectional variation of estimates serves as a means to assess the robustness of empirical findings over the entire cross section we find that both inflation and inflation uncertainty significantly reduce output growth economies with low inflation rates are particularly at risk to incur output losses from increasing inflation we also find spillover effects among uncertainty variables where the causal impact if present seems to point from the uncertainty in output to inflation uncertainty

networks diversity and productivity the social capital of corporate r d teams we argue that the debate regarding the performance implications of demographic diversity can be usefully reframed in terms of the network variables that reflect distinct forms of social capital scholars who are pessimistic about the performance of diverse teams base their view on the hypothesis that decreased network density the average strength of the relationship among team members lowers a team s capacity for coordination the optimistic view is founded on the hypothesis that teams that are characterized by high network heterogeneity whereby relationships on the team cut across salient demographic boundaries enjoy an enhanced learning capability we test each of these hypotheses directly and thereby avoid the problematic assumption that they contradict one another our analysis of data on the social networks organizational tenure and productivity of 224 corporate r d teams indicates that both network variables help account for team productivity these findings support a recasting of the diversity performance debate in terms of the network processes that are more proximate to outcomes of interest

thresholds in the finance growth nexus a cross country analysis thresholds of inflation government size trade openness and per capita income for the finance growth nexus are investigated using five year averages of standard variables for 84 countries from 1965 to 2004 the results suggest that i high inflation crowds out positive effects of financial depth on long run growth ii small government sizes hurt the finance growth nexus in low income countries while large government sizes hurt high income countries iii low levels of trade openness are sufficient for finance growth nexus in high income countries but low income countries need higher levels of trade openness for similar magnitudes of the finance growth nexus and iv catch up effects through the finance growth nexus are higher for moderate per capita income levels

price stability and the ecb s monetary policy strategy abstract this paper focuses on the price stability objective within the framework of the single monetary policy strategy it starts by reviewing what this objective which is common to all central banks means second this paper focuses exclusively on the anchoring of short to medium term inflation expectations part 2 several measures show that this anchoring is effective a two pillar small structural macro economic model framework is used to analyze the impact that this anchoring of expectations has on the determination of the short to medium term inflation rate from this point of view observed inflation in the euro area seems to be in line with the theory and the ecb s action seems to be very effective third we focus on the other aspect of monetary stability the degree of price level uncertainty and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the medium to long term even though this assessment is more difficult than it is in the short to medium term since we only have a track record covering 6 years various indicators from the theoretical analysis paint a fairly reassuring picture of the effectiveness of the device used by the ecb

optimal foreign exchange rate policy for a small open economy abstract this paper examines optimal exchange rate policy for a small open economy which faces temporary and pemanent real and nominal disturbances it demonstrates that exchange rate stabilization is desirable if most diturbances are nominal if most disturbances are real then stabilization should be greater 1 the greater the fraction of exchange rate variance accounted for by permanent disturbances 2 the greater the information available to firms in setting the wage 3 the greater the fraction of exchange rate variance attributed to domestic productivity shocks compared with foreign relative price shocks and 4 the more elastic is labor supply

informal hiring and income in the labor market this note explores the generalizability of the conventional belief that jobs found through weak social ties and through work related social ties provide higher incomes than jobs found through other means data are analyzed from a sample which is representative of a complete cross section of a large metropolitan labor market the results show that zero order relationships generalize in most instances to broadly defined populations however the effectiveness of weakly tied and work related informal contacts becomes greatly diminished when controls are added for measures of worker productivity characteristics

world trade patterns economic disturbances and exchange rate management abstract this paper construct and analyzes a three country stochastic model of world trade the objectives of this paper are to investigate the propagation of economic disturbances worldwide and to analyze the nature of optimal exchange rate management on the part of a single country faced with monetary and real disturbances accurring in all its trade patterns the paper analyzes the roles of bilateral trade patterns the type of underlying stochastic disturbances i e monetary vs real and transsitory vs permanent and of the optimality criterion in determining the optimal exchange rate regime

a new database on the structure and development of the financial sector this article introduces a new database of indicators of financial structure and financial development across countries and over time the database is unique in that it combines a wide variety of indicators that measure the size activity and efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets it improves on previous efforts by presenting data on the public share of commercial banks introducing indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial institutions and constructing measures of the size of bond and primary equity markets this article introduces a new database the first to provide comprehensive measures of the development structure and performance of the financial sector this database is the first to define and construct indicators of the size and activity of nonbank financial intermediaries such as insurance companies pension funds and non deposit money banks it is also the first to include indicators of the size of primary equity markets and primary and secondary bond markets in constructing the database authors carefully deflate measures and match stock and flow variables

inflation investment and growth a money and banking approach output growth investment and the real interest rate in long run evidence tend to be negatively affected by inflation theoretically inflation acts as a human capital tax that decreases output growth and the real interest rate but increases the investment rate opposing evidence this paper resolves this puzzle by requiring exchange for investment as well as consumption inflation then decreases the investment rate and still decreases both output growth and real interest up to some moderately high rate of inflation above which increasingly low investment finally causes capital to fall relative to labour and the real interest rate to rise

monetary policy and foreign price disturbances under flexible exchange rates a stochastic approach the analysis of monetary policy under flexible exchange rates has received extensive treatment during recent years particular attention has been devoted to the role of exchange rate expectations with a general conclusion being that many of the propositions of the traditional static flemingmundell model see fleming 8 and mundell 19 require substantial modification once such expectations are taken into account see 5 21 24 with few exceptions the analysis has been carried out in a deterministic framework the usual assumption made is that any monetary expansion that is introduced is initially ex ante unanticipated but having taken place it is then ex post expected to be permanent this assumption underlies for example the recent contribution by dornbusch 5 and much of the subsequent work that stems from it l this assumption while very natural is also a polar one in practice agents in the economy may attempt to anticipate monetary policy and the policies themselves

the assessment the new economy the remarkable economic success of the united states in the 1990s led many observers to talk about a new economy this paper provides an overview of the main issues including faster productivity growth the stability of inflation despite very low unemployment the reduction in output volatility the role of monetary policy and the boom in the stock market the paper also considers whether or not the acceleration in productivity growth can be sustained and the possible implications for the rest of the world copyright 2002 oxford university press

business environment economic agglomeration and job creation around the world based on a comprehensive worldwide firm survey this paper looks at how the business environment and economic agglomeration affect job creation holding constant conventional determinants of firm growth such as firm ownership size and age the analysis finds that economic agglomeration is most important especially modern telecommunications access to export markets concentration of economic activity in large cities and capacity agglomeration the concentration of large firms in a city although the business environment affects job growth less than agglomeration does some elements of the business environment matter such as labor flexibility unionization and local skill levels there is strong heterogeneity in job creation across firm size and age

making the most of high inflation this article examines the relationship between the real effects of inflation and its level in countries with frequent episodes of high inflation the real effects are computed as asymmetric impulse responses of output to inflation separately in the regimes with different signs of the differences between the expected inflation and the predicted output neutral inflation it is found that with the increase in inflation such effects increase in the regime with the positive sign relatively to the effects in the regime with the negative sign it is also shown that this finding is valid for most countries with high inflation episodes where inflation is greater than 4 8 for at least 25 of quarterly observations this leads to a simple policy prescription that in economies with frequent high inflation episodes anti inflationary monetary decisions are least damaging for output if undertaken in the periods when the difference between the expected and output neutral inflation is negative