ingredients of famine analysis availability and entitlements famines often take place in situations of moderate to good food availability without any significant decline of food supply per head the paper presents an alternative approach to famines which does not concentrate on availability but on people s ability to command food through legal means available in the society including the use of production possibilities trade opportunities entitlements vis a vis the state etc the approach is explained focusing on exchange entitlement mappings fluctuations in which can lead to big shifts in the intergroup distribution of food command the approach is then applied to the bengal famine of 1943 the ethiopian famine in wollo in 1973 and the bangladesh famine in 1974 and some general conclusions are drawn about the nature and classes of famines

credit risk drivers evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics abstract understanding if credit risk is driven mostly by idiosyncratic firm characteristics or by systematic factors is an important issue for the assessment of financial stability by exploring the links between credit risk and macroeconomic developments we observe that in periods of economic growth there may be some tendency towards excessive risk taking using an extensive dataset with detailed information for more than 30 000 firms we show that default probabilities are influenced by several firm specific characteristics when time effect controls or macroeconomic variables are also taken into account the results improve substantially hence though the firms financial situation has a central role in explaining default probabilities macroeconomic conditions are also very important when assessing default probabilities over time

consumer debt non payment and the borrowing constraint implications for consumer behavior abstract this paper examines whether the consumption behavior of a borrowing constrained household is affected by debt non payment from the household s intertemporal maximization problem we derive a two equation model consisting of augmented forms of the standard consumption euler equation and the static labor supply equation we estimate these equations by using nonlinear gmm and obtain estimates inter alia for the discount factor and the debt payment to income ratio the former is found to be much lower than the values often used in model calibrations in the literature showing a high degree of impatience of households the latter is close to the values reported in the consumer credit literature our results are found to be robust to a number of specification tests under different types of household preferences these results are also subjected to a comparative analysis with the results derived from the consumption euler equation under full debt repayment and no borrowing constraint

some examples of dynamic cournot duopoly with inventory this article analyzes a two period game where firms can produce inventory in the first period for sale in the second period we assume that revenues and costs are time invariant and that the firms are symmetric we focus on the nature and the existence of the subgame perfect equilibrium of this model we use examples to show that the nash value functions defined on the joint inventory vector are likely to be ill behaved in particular they need not be concave nor even continuous in the firm s own inventory as a result asymmetric equilibrium is possible when average production costs are falling single firm operation can occur in equilibrium nonexistence is also a distinct possibility

bank lending policy credit scoring and the survival of loans to evaluate loan applicants banks increasingly use credit scoring models the objective of such models typically is to minimize default rates or the number of incorrectly classified loans thereby they fail to take into account that loans are multiperiod contracts for which reason it is important for banks not only to know if but also when a loan will default in this paper a bivariate tobit model with a variable censoring threshold and sample selection effects is estimated for 1 the decision to provide a loan or not and 2 the survival time of granted loans the model proves to be an effective tool to separate applicants with short and with long survival times the bank s loan provision process is shown to be inefficient loans are granted in a way that conflicts with both default risk minimization and survival time maximization there is thus no trade off between higher default risk and higher return in the lending policy

speculative storage in imperfectly competitive markets markets for many commodities are characterized by imperfectly competitive production as well as substantial storage by speculators who are attracted by significant price volatility we examine how speculative storage affects the behavior of an oligopoly producing a commodity for which demand is subject to random shocks speculators compete with consumers when purchasing the commodity and then subsequently compete with producers when selling their stocks resulting in two opposing incentives on the one hand producers would like to increase production to capture future sales in advance by selling to speculators while on the other hand they would like to withhold production to deter speculation thereby eliminating the additional supply from speculators in future periods we find that the incentive to sell to speculators can be quite strong potentially resulting in prices sufficiently high to drive consumers from the market furthermore these incentives are non monotonic in the number of producers speculative storage occurs more frequently in a relatively concentrated oligopoly than in the extremes of monopoly or perfect competition

crime and microenterprise growth evidence from mexico summary we explore the relationship between property crime and growth among microenterprises in mexico we use data on microenterprises and crime incidence from victimization surveys we find that higher rates of property crime are associated with a significantly lower probability an enterprise plans to expand or experiences income growth in the subsequent 12 months these effects are unique to property crimes and are not due to preventative measures undertaken by more rapidly expanding firms or other sources of reverse causality these conclusions also are robust to a number of controls for firm heterogeneity and for local institutional quality

world oil market or mayhem the world oil market is regarded by many as a puzzle why are oil prices so volatile what is opec and what does opec do where are oil prices headed in the long run is peak oil a genuine concern why did oil prices spike in the summer of 2008 and what role did speculators play any attempt to answer these questions must be informed and disciplined by economics such is the purpose of this essay to illuminate recent developments in the world oil market from the perspective of economic theory

inventories market structure and price volatility abstract the effect of inventories on the level and volatility of price is analyzed under alternative market structures in a fairly general setting it is shown that inventories have no effect on the average level of prices in a cournot duopoly in the absence of depreciation the effect of storage on price volatility is analyzed in a more restrictive linear quadratic setting in which it is found that imperfectly competitive producers make less use of inventories for smoothing random fluctuations than is efficient the effect of market structure on price volatility depends on whether demand shocks or cost shocks are more important

employment tax credit programs the effects of socioeconomic targeting provisions argentina s proempleo experiment conducted in 1998 2000 was designed to assess whether a wage subsidy and specialized training could assist the transition from workfare to regular work randomly sampled workfare participants in a welfare dependent

optimal multiperiod contracts and the gain from enduring relationships under private information informational asymmetries can play a key role in explaining the existence and nature of multiperiod contracts in an illustrative risk sharing model even relatively short two period contracts can be mutually beneficial if there is private information though one period contracts suffice otherwise further contracts which are pareto optimal relative to the environment and the information structure are defined and partially characterized an example illustrates how otherwise inefficient intertemporal tie ins can be used optimally to mitigate incentive problems the obvious borrowing lending schemes are not private information pareto optimal in these period by period actions are not sufficiently constrained discounting affects the form of the optimal contract but none of these qualitative conclusions

commodity price stabilization in imperfect or cartelized markets most studies of commodity price stabilization assume that all agents behave competitively however many commodities suitable for stockpiling are produced by countries with a significant share of the world market and commodity agreements themselves often result in cartelization of the market the paper explores the consequences of market power for the choice of storage rule and the degree of price stabilization it finds that with linear demand dominant producers choose more stable prices than under perfect competition and price stability increases with their market share with constant elastic demand the competitive degree of price stabilization is achieved

storability market structure and demand shift incentives we consider a two period model in which buyers can store a good by purchasing in advance of consumption so as to realize potential gains from intertemporal arbitrage we find that storability introduces a kink in the aggregate period 1 demand when supply is oligopolistic quantity setting and consumers are sufficiently patient storage cost is relatively low each firm has a strong current incentive to capture future market share from a rival as a result in equilibrium the price path is increasing and there is rational in advance purchase by buyers in contrast the monopoly and perfectly competitive markets exhibit no such price dynamics intermediate storage costs result in multiple equilibria with at least one that involves advance purchase and one that does not

reconciling conflicting evidence on the performance of propensity score matching methods there is a long standing debate in the literature over whether social programs can be reliably evaluated without a randomized experiment this paper summarizes results from a larger paper smith and todd 2001 that uses experimental data combined with nonexperimental data to evaluate the performance of alternative nonexperimental estimators the impact estimates based on experimental data provide a benchmark against which to judge the performance of nonexperimental estimators our experimental data come from the national supported work nsw demonstration and the nonexperimental data from the current population survey cps and the panel study of income dynamics psid these same data were used in influential papers by robert lalonde 1986 james heckman and joseph hotz 1989 and rajeev dehejia and sadek wahba 1998 1999 we focus on a class of estimators called propensity score matching estimators which were introduced in the statistics literature by paul rosenbaum and donald rubin 1983 traditional propensity score matching methods pair each program participant with a single nonparticipant where pairs are chosen based on the degree of similarity in the estimated probabilities of participating in the program the propensity scores more recently developed nonparametric matching estimators described in heckman et al 1997 1998a b use weighted averages over multiple observations to construct matches we apply both kinds of estimators in this paper heckman et al 1997 1998a b evaluate the performance of matching estimators using experimental data from the u s national job training partnership act jtpa study combined with comparison group samples drawn from three sources they show that data quality is a crucial ingredient to any reliable estimation strategy specifically the estimators they examine are only found to perform well in replicating the results of the experiment when they are applied to comparison group data satisfying the following criteria i the same data sources i e the same surveys or the same type of administrative data or both are used for participants and nonparticipants so that earnings and other characteristics are measured in an analogous way ii participants and nonparticipants reside in the same local labor markets and iii the data contain a rich set of variables relevant to modeling the program participation decision if the comparison group data fails to satisfy these criteria the performance of the estimators diminishes greatly more recently dehejia and wahba 1998 1999 have used the nsw data also used by lalonde to evaluate the performance of propensity score matching methods including pairwise matching and caliper matching they find that these simple matching estimators succeed in closely replicating the experimental nsw results even though the comparison group data do not satisfy any of the criteria found to be important in heckman et al 1997 1998a from this evidence they conclude that matching approaches are generally more reliable than traditional econometric estimators in this paper we reanalyze the nsw data in an attempt to reconcile the conflicting findings smith department of economics university of western ontario social science centre london on n6a 5c2 canada and nber todd department of economics university of pennsylvania 3718 locust walk philadelphia pa 19104 and nber versions of the paper that is the source for this paper have been presented at a 2000 meeting of the institute for research on poverty in madison wisconsin at the western research network on employment and training summer workshop august 2000 at the canadian international labour network meetings september 2000 and at the university of north carolina we thank james heckman for comments on this paper and we thank robert lalonde for comments and for providing us with the data from his 1986 study we thank rajeev dehejia for providing us with information helpful in reconstructing the samples used in the dehejia and wahba 1998 1999 studies jingjing hsee and miana plesca provided excellent research assistance

bank lending policy credit scoring and value at risk this paper builds on the credit scoring literature and proposes a method to calculate portfolio credit risk individual default risk estimates are used to compose a value at risk var measure of credit risk in general credit scoring models suffer from a sample selection bias the starting point is therefore to estimate an unbiased scoring model using the bivariate probit approach the paper uses a large data set with swedish consumer credit data that contains extensive financial and personal information on both rejected and approved applicants we study how marginal changes in a default risk based acceptance rule would shift the size of the banks loan portfolio its var exposure and average credit losses finally we compare the risk in the sample portfolio with that in an efficiently provided portfolio of equal size the results show that the size of a small consumer loan does not affect associated default risk implying that the bank provides loans in a way that is not consistent with default risk minimization var calculations indicate that an efficient selection by means of a default riskbased rule of loan applicants can reduce credit risk by up to 80 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

monopoly behaviour with speculative storage abstract we analyze the effects of competitive storage when the production of the good is controlled by a monopolist the existence of competitive storers serves to reduce the monopolist s effective demand when speculators are selling and to increase it when they are buying this results in the monopolist manipulating the frequency of stockouts and hence the price smoothing effects of competitive storage we find that competitive storage affects both the level and the volatility of price under monopoly the average price level is higher with storage due to the monopolist s desire to induce stockouts by occasionally keeping the price just at the level that induces a stockout although storage does reduce the volatility of prices under monopoly production prices are more volatile than they would be under perfectly competitive production even though stockouts occur less frequently under monopoly these results are demonstrated through closed form solutions of the two period version of the model and computational solutions to the infinite horizon version of the model

business practices in small firms in developing countries management has a large effect on the productivity of medium and large firms but does management matter in micro and small firms where the majority of the labor force in developing countries works we develop 26 questions that measure business practices in marketing stock keeping record keeping and financial planning these questions have been administered in surveys in bangladesh chile ghana kenya mexico nigeria and sri lanka we show that variation in business practices explains as much of the variation in outcomes sales profits and labor productivity and total factor productivity in microenterprises as in larger enterprises panel data from three countries indicate that better business practices predict higher survival rates and faster sales growth the association of business practices with firm outcomes is robust to including numerous measures of the owner s human capital we find that owners with higher human capital children of entrepreneurs and firms with employees employ better business practices data as supplemental material are available at http dx doi org 10 1287 mnsc 2016 2492 this paper was accepted by toby stuart entrepreneurship and innovation

a simple competitive model with production and storage we study a rational expectations partial equilibrium model of a market for a single storable commodity whose output each period is a function of previous period effort on production and a realization of a shock that affects equally all producers i he final demand is non random and depends only on each period s price risk neutral producers make production and storage decisions based on forecasts of future price distributions existence of equilibrium is proved and for the case of i i d shocks several comparative statics results are established as well as the existence and stability of a unique stationary distribution and whose output at each period is a multiplicative function of previous period s planting and of the realization of a shock that affects equally all producers the final demand for this good is non random and depends only on this period s price this describes approximately markets for agricultural products which are not traded internationally and where most of the price uncertainty stems from supply shocks risk neutral producers make their decisions based on forecasts of future price distributions and of known cost functions of storage and production to maximize their discounted profits in order to close the model an assumption on how such price forecasts are made is needed we assume that agents make equilibrium forecasts i e that their forecast is common and that when producers act taking the forecasted prices as given they make decisions that yield the forecasted prices as equilibrium prices this is of course what has been sometimes called rational expectations the assumption of equilibrium expectations and the presence of risk neutral pro ducers will imply that the equilibrium variables may be obtained by considering a related market surplus maximization problem 1 this places strong restriction on the stochastic process of equilibrium prices for the case where the basic shocks are assumed to be independently and identically distributed over time one may thus show that equilibrium prices are a function of a certain state variable the total stocks kept from last period plus this period s output and this allows us to derive properties of equilibrium solutions our main results concerning this case are a storage is a non increasing function of price and expected production a non decreasing one b the elasticity of expected future prices with respect to today s prices is positive and less than one c this elasticity is non constant being zero for high enough prices d the price process follows a renewal process if prices are low

the role of soft information in a dynamic contract setting evidence from the home equity credit market credit underwriting is a dynamic process involving multiple interactions between borrower and lender during this process lenders have the opportunity to obtain hard and soft information from the borrower we analyze more than 108 000 home equity loans and lines of credit applications to study the role of soft and hard information during underwriting our data set allows us to distinguish lender actions that are based strictly on hard information from decisions that involve the collection of soft information our analysis confirms the importance of soft information and suggests that its use can be effective in reducing overall portfolio credit losses ex post

assisting the transition from workfare to work a randomized experiment randomly sampled workfare participants in a welfare dependent region of argentina were given a voucher that entitled an employer to a sizable wage subsidy a second sample also received the option of skill training while a third sample formed the control group the authors analyze the effects of this scheme on participants employment and income using double difference and instrumental variables methods to deal with potential experimental biases including selective compliance with the randomized assignment the authors find that compared with the control group voucher recipients had a significantly higher probability of employment though their current incomes were no higher the impact was largely confined to women and younger workers labor supply effects appear to have been important however training had no significant impact the experiment was cost effective in reducing the government s welfare spending since take up of the subsidy by employers was low

forecasting bankruptcy more accurately a simple hazard model i argue that hazard models are more appropriate than single period models for forecasting bankruptcy single period models are inconsistent while hazard models produce consistent estimates i describe a simple technique for estimating a discrete time hazard model i find that about half of the accounting ratios that have been used in previous models are not statistically significant moreover market size past stock returns and idiosyncratic returns variability are all strongly related to bankruptcy i propose a model that uses both accounting ratios and market driven variables to produce out of sample forecasts that are more accurate than those of alternative models copyright 2001 by university of chicago press

an analysis of the impact of sample attrition on the second generation of respondents in the michigan panel study of income dynamics only a few studies have tried to estimate the trend in the elasticity of children s economic status with respect to parents economic status and these studies produce conflicting results in an attempt to reconcile these findings we use the panel study

returns to capital in microenterprises evidence from a field experiment small and informal firms account for a large share of employment in developing countries the rapid expansion of microfinance services is based on the belief that these firms have productive investment opportunities and can enjoy high returns to capital if given the opportunity however measuring the return to capital is complicated by unobserved factors such as entrepreneurial ability and demand shocks which are likely to be correlated with capital stock the authors use a randomized experiment to overcome this problem and to measure the return to capital for the average microenterprise in their sample regardless of whether they apply for credit they accomplish this by providing cash and equipment grants to small firms in sri lanka and measuring the increase in profits arising from this exogenous positive shock to capital stock after controlling for possible spillover effects the authors find the average real return to capital to be 5 7 percent a month substantially higher than the market interest rate they then examine the heterogeneity of treatment effects to explore whether missing credit markets or missing insurance markets are the most likely cause of the high returns returns are found to vary with entrepreneurial ability and with measures of other sources of cash within the household but not to vary with risk aversion or uncertainty

costly monitoring loan contracts and equilibrium credit rationing this paper develops a model with asymmetrically informed agents and costly monitoring of loan contracts where an equilibrium can exhibit credit rationing borrowers are identical ex ante but some receive loans and others do not in contrast to existing credit rationing theories rationing does not occur here due to inflexible prices adverse selection or moral hazard optimizing behaviour produces a standard debt contract in equilibrium the aggregate quantity of loans and equilibrium interest rates respond differently depending on whether there is rationing in equilibrium

estimating the benefit incidence of an antipoverty program by propensity score matching this brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study entitled estimating the benefit incidence of an antipoverty program by propensity score matching conducted between 1997 and 1998 in argentina the study observed that the average direct gain to the participant is found to be about half the gross wage over half of the beneficiaries are in the poorest decile nationally and 80 percent are in the poorest quintile the propensity score matching psm estimator is reasonably robust to a number of changes in methodology participants are more likely to be poor than non participants participants are less well educated live in poorer neighborhoods and are more likely to be members of neighborhood associations and political parties average gains are similar between men and women but are higher for younger workers funding for the study derives from the world bank research committee

the economic effects of energy price shocks large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the u s economy since the 1970s turmoil in the middle east rising energy prices in the u s and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance this paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate what are energy price shocks and where do they come from how responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices how do consumers expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks how do energy price shocks affect u s real output inflation and stock prices why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions why has there been a surge in the price of oil in recent years why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and if so why as the paper demonstrates it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets when answering these questions

wage subsidies for microenterprises wage subsidies have long been used by governments as part of their active labor market policies to generate employment for the disadvantaged or to sustain employment during downturns the current global financial crisis has seen such policies return to prominence with many developed nations using such policies to try and reduce lay offs nicholas kaldor 1936 p richard layard and stephen nickell 1980 and lawrence katz 1998 lay out the economic arguments for such a policy and discuss conditions under which a short term subsidy might have longer term effects on employment for the targeted individuals

competitive storage and commodity price dynamics by buying cheap and selling dear risk neutral commodity speculators can smooth commodity prices and induce serial dependence in price even when none would exist under a simple process of supply and demand commodity prices are variable and strongly positively correlated from one year to the next the variability is often explained by supply factors and the autocorrelation by the activities of speculators we show that this explanation is not consistent with the evidence speculation can substantially increase autocorrelation for prices that are weakly autocorrelated in its absence but not to the high levels that are observed in the data

are targeted wage subsidies harmful evidence from a wage voucher experiment this paper presents the results of a controlled experiment designed to test the effectiveness of a targeted wage subsidy program such programs are intended to increase the employment of target group workers by offering employers reimbursement for part of those workers wages in the dayton ohio experiment however job seekers given experimental vouchers identifying them to employers as eligible for a generous wage subsidy were significantly less likely to find employment than were job seekers without vouchers the author speculates that the vouchers had a stigmatizing effect and provided a screening device with which employers discriminated against economically disadvantaged workers

anti hoarding laws a stock condemnation reconsidered economists have regarded anti hoarding laws as irrational reactions to nonexistent monopoly in the storage of grain this paper shows that anti hoarding laws cannot be rationally directed against a monopolistic storer for he will always store less not more than would be stored under competition but seemingly perverse competitive storage in the form of excessive stockholding can arise when a price ceiling distorts the market additional public storage exacerbates this perverse private behavior and may even induce behavior that appears to be active market manipulation under such circumstances anti hoarding laws can be desirable second best measures

storable good monopoly the role of commitment we study dynamic monopoly pricing of storable goods in an environment where demand changes over time the literature on durables has focused on incentives to delay purchases our analysis focuses on a different intertemporal demand incentive for consumers the key force on the consumer side is advance purchases or stockpiling this stockpiling motive can be present in the case of standard durables as well in environments unmodeled in the prior literature we show that if the monopolist cannot commit then prices are higher in all periods and social welfare is lower than in the case in which the monopolist can commit this is in contrast with the durable goods analysis in the literature on the coase conjecture

dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans abstract a bank that lends money to a household faces two types of risk frequently mentioned is the risk of default seldom referred to is the risk of an early redemption of the loan leading to dormancy in this paper we model the transition of consumer loans from an active to a dormant state to this end we use data on 4786 individuals who were granted credit by a swedish lending institution between september 1993 and august 1995 and estimate a semi parametric duration model we analyze the factors that determine the time to maturity on consumer loans and investigate the ability of the model to match the maturities observed in the data moreover we derive the distribution of conditional expected durations of loans and show how a loan application can be evaluated by calculating its expected profit