fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the eu countries from central and eastern europe this article analyses the time series properties of the fiscal balance in the 10 eu countries from central and eastern europe the persistence of the fiscal balance is analysed by means of unit root tests that account for possible nonlinearities and structural changes the linear and nonlinear unit root tests find only mild evidence in favour of the stationarity hypothesis with asymmetric effects present in a few cases after controlling for structural changes in the data generation processes dgps the results point to stationarity of the series thus in spite of relatively steady headline figures the budget balance processes in the eu countries from central and eastern europe exhibit substantial instability

optimal dynamic pricing of inventories with stochastic demand over finite horizons in many industries managers face the problem of selling a given stock of items by a deadline we investigate the problem of dynamically pricing such inventories when demand is price sensitive and stochastic and the firm s objective is to maximize expected revenues examples that fit this framework include retailers selling fashion and seasonal goods and the travel and leisure industry which markets space such as seats on airline flights cabins on vacation cruises and rooms in hotels that become worthless if not sold by a specific time we formulate this problem using intensity control and obtain structural monotonicity results for the optimal intensity resp price as a function of the stock level and the length of the horizon for a particular exponential family of demand functions we find the optimal pricing policy in closed form for general demand functions we find an upper bound on the expected revenue based on analyzing the deterministic version of the problem and use this bound to prove that simple fixed price policies are asymptotically optimal as the volume of expected sales tends to infinity finally we extend our results to the case where demand is compound poisson only a finite number of prices is allowed the demand rate is time varying holding costs are incurred and cash flows are discounted the initial stock is a decision variable and reordering overbooking and random cancellations are allowed

tracking the market dynamic pricing and learning in a changing environment dynamic pricing of commodities without knowing the exact relation between price and demand is a much studied problem most existing studies assume that the parameters describing the market are constant during the selling period this severely reduces their practical applicability since in reality market characteristics may change all the time without the firm always being aware of it in the present paper we study dynamic pricing and learning in a changing market environment we introduce a methodology that enables the price manager to hedge against changes in the market and provide explicit upper bounds on the regret a measure of the performance of the firm s pricing decisions in addition this methodology guides the selection of the optimal way to estimate the market process we provide numerical examples from practically relevant situations to illustrate the methodology

common trends the government s budget constraint and revenue smoothing abstract the requirement that the government s budget be balanced in present value terms is shown to be equivalent to the condition that government expenditures inclusive of interest tax receipts and seignorage be cointegrated the condition is in fact stronger requiring that the deficit inclusive of interest be stationary stationarity of the net of interest deficit is neither necessary nor sufficient for intertemporal budget balance however it does have implications for barro s tax smoothing hypothesis data for the period 1890 1986 are consistent with intertemporal budget balance but not with tax smoothing

rational ponzi games when can a government run a rational ponzi game i e issue debt and never pay back any interest or principal the transversalit y condition of each individual implies that such schemes require an i nfinity of lenders given this horizons are unimportant ponzi games cannot be ruled out by assuming that agents have infinite horizons the authors point out both the basic similarity of and some key diff erences between rational ponzi games and asset price bubbles or fiat money regarding international debt the analysis implies that what matters for the feasibility of rational ponzi games are conditions in the lenders not the borrowers economy copyright 1988 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

optimal dynamic pricing of perishable products with stochastic demand and a finite set of prices abstract consider a continuous time inventory problem in which a retailer sets the price on a fixed number of a perishable asset that must be sold prior to the time at which it perishes the retailer can dynamically adjust the price between any of a finite number of allowable prices demand for the product is poisson with an intensity that is inversely related to the price the optimal policy is piecewise constant the maximum expected revenue is nondecreasing and concave in both the remaining inventory and the time to go for a given inventory level the optimal price declines as the time at which the products perish approaches at any given time the optimal price is nonincreasing in the number of items remaining unsold these results are extended to i the case in which the prices and corresponding demand intensities depend on the time to go and ii the case in which the retailer can restock to meet demand at a unit cost after the initial inventory has been sold

dynamic pricing with real time demand learning in many service industries the firm adjusts the product price dynamically by taking into account the current product inventory and the future demand distribution because the firm can easily monitor the product inventory the success of dynamic pricing relies on an accurate demand forecast in this paper we consider a situation where the firm does not have an accurate demand forecast but can only roughly estimate the customer arrival rate before the sale begins as the sale moves forward the firm uses real time sales data to fine tune this arrival rate estimation we show how the firm can first use this modified arrival rate estimation to forecast the future demand distribution with better precision and then use the new information to dynamically adjust the product price in order to maximize the expected total revenue numerical study shows that this strategy not only is nearly optimal but also is robust when the true customer arrival rate is much different from the original forecast finally we extend the results to four situations commonly encountered in practice unobservable lost customers time dependent arrival rate batch demand and discrete set of allowable prices

the role of wages and auditing during a crackdown on corruption in the city of buenos aires abstract we study the prices paid for basic inputs during a crackdown on corruption in the public hospitals of the city of buenos aires argentina during 1996 97 we find a well defined negative effect on the measures used to capture corruption prices paid by hospitals for basic homogeneous inputs decrease by 15 percent during the first 9 months of the crackdown after this period prices increase but they are still 10 percent lower than those prevailing before the crackdown relative to the precrackdown period higher wages play no role in inducing lower input prices when audit intensity can be expected to be maximal during the first phase of the crackdown but have a negative and well defined effect when audit intensity takes intermediate levels the last phase of the crackdown controlling for fixed effects we find that the wage elasticity of input prices exceeds 20 these results are consistent with the standard model of bribes of gary becker and george stigler

some tests of the government s intertemporal budget constraint using us data us monthly data for the period 1951 1984 are used to test a key element of the ricardian equivalence doctrine namely the government s intertemporal budget constraint it is demonstrated that the us empirical evidence is not supportive of this constraint some explanations for this finding are noted

bubble finance and debt sustainability a test of the government s intertemporal budget constraint this paper tests whether the government s budget is intertemporally balanced in a number of ec countries by applying a method first developed to detect speculative bubbles in financial markets the test aims to establish whether the government can engage in buble finance and is based on a comparison between two sets of estimates the first is obtained directly by regressing the stock of outstanding debt on a distributed lag of the primary surplus the second is obtained indirectly from a pair of equations one relating the current debt stock to next period s primary surplus and debt stock the other specifying an ar process for the primary surplus in the presence of a bubble only the first set of estimates is inconsistent and hence the two sets differ it is found that the null of no bubble can be rejected in the cases of italy germany denmark and greece implying that the government is not intertemporally solvent in these countries the other ec member states appear to be on a sustainable path

simultaneously learning and optimizing using controlled variance pricing price experimentation is an important tool for firms to find the optimal selling price of their products it should be conducted properly since experimenting with selling prices can be costly a firm therefore needs to find a pricing policy that optimally balances between learning the optimal price and gaining revenue in this paper we propose such a pricing policy called controlled variance pricing cvp the key idea of the policy is to enhance the certainty equivalent pricing policy with a taboo interval around the average of previously chosen prices the width of the taboo interval shrinks at an appropriate rate as the amount of data gathered gets large this guarantees sufficient price dispersion for a large class of demand models we show that this procedure is strongly consistent which means that eventually the value of the optimal price will be learned and derive upper bounds on the regret which is the expected amount of money lost due to not using the optimal price numerical tests indicate that cvp performs well on different demand models and time scales this paper was accepted by assaf zeevi stochastic models and simulation

discrete equilibrium price dispersion an explicit solution of an equilibrium model with price setting firms and searching customers makes possible a number of comparativestatics predictions about how cost differences among firms search costs of customers and taxes will affect the mean and variance of the distribution of market prices another implication of the model is that a firm s demand depends on the difference between its price and the average price in the market

non cooperative competition among revenue maximizing service providers with demand learning this paper recognizes that in many decision environments in which revenue optimization is attempted an actual demand curve and its parameters are generally unobservable herein we describe the dynamics of demand as a continuous time differential equation based on an evolutionary game theory perspective we then observe realized sales data to obtain estimates of parameters that govern the evolution of demand these are refined on a discrete time scale the resulting model takes the form of a differential variational inequality we present an algorithm based on a gap function for the differential variational inequality and report its numerical performance for an example revenue optimization problem

adaptive ordering and pricing for perishable products we consider the combined problem of pricing and ordering for a perishable product with unknown demand distribution and censored demand observations resulting from lost sales faced by a monopolistic retailer we develop an adaptive pricing and ordering policy with the asymptotic property that the average realized profit per period converges with probability one to the optimal value under complete information on the distribution the pricing mechanism is modeled as a multiarmed bandit problem while the order quantity decision made after the price level is established is based on a stochastic approximation procedure with multiplicative updates

price inertia in a macroeconomic model of monopolistic competition this paper discusses the consequences of price setting by firms under monopolistic competitio n in dynamic models it is assumed that costs of price adjustment are speed dependent the keynesian regime prevails when firms choose a p oint on the demand curve if real labor costs are relatively high cu stomers may be rationed after analyzing firm behavior in a partial e quilibrium setting demand is made endogenous in a full scope macroec onomic model numerical examples are worked through by applying the t echnique of multiple shooting it is found that relatively small cost s of price adjustment give rise to substantial macroeconomic effects copyright 1988 by the london school of economics and political science

income distribution political instability and investment abstract this paper successfully tests on a sample of 71 countries for the period 1960 85 the following hypotheses income inequality by fuelling social discontent increases sociopolitical instability the latter by creating uncertainty in the politico economic environment reduces investment as a consequence income inequality and investment are inversely related since investment is a primary engine of growth this paper identifies a channel for an inverse relationship between income inequality and growth we measure socio political instability with indices which capture the occurrence of more or less violent phenomena of political unrest and we test our hypotheses by estimating a two equation model in which the endogenous variables are investment and an index of socio political instability our results are robust to sensitivity analysis on the specification of the model and the measure of political instability and are unchanged when the model is estimated using robust regression techniques

using electoral cycles in police hiring to estimate the effect of police on crime comment previous empirical studies have uncovered little evidence that police reduce crime possibly due to simultaneity problems this paper uses the timing of mayoral and gubernatorial elections as an instrumental variable to identify a causal effect of police on crime increases in the size of police forces are shown to be disproportionately concentrated in mayoral and gubernatorial election years increases in police are shown to substantially reduce violent crime but have a smaller impact on property crime the null hypothesis that the marginal social benefit of reduced crime equals the costs of hiring additional police cannot be rejected

actively learning about demand and the dynamics of price adjustment by observing the quantity demanded at particular prices a firm may learn about the parameters of its demand curve in such an environment price changes obstruct the learning process by inducing additional noise the authors paper constructs a dynamic model where a price setting firm endogenously controls the speed of learning the model provides a possible explanation for price inertia as a stable pricing policy allows the firm to learn more rapidly which improves future expected profits furthermore even in the long run learning continues to affect the firm s optimal price copyright 1990 by royal economic society

the uncertainty effect when a risky prospect is valued less than its worst possible outcome expected utility theory prospect theory and most other models of risky choice are based on the fundamental premise that individuals choose among risky prospects by balancing the value of the possible consequences these models therefore require that the value of a risky prospect lie between the value of that prospect s highest and lowest outcome although this requirement seems essential for any theory of risky decision making we document a violation of this condition in which individuals value a risky prospect less than its worst possible realization this demonstration which we term the uncertainty effect draws from more than 1000 experimental participants and includes hypothetical and real pricing and choice tasks as well as field experiments in real markets with financial incentives our results suggest that there are choice situations in which decision makers discount lotteries for uncertainty in a manner that cannot be accommodated by standard models of risky choice from the time of bernoulli on it has been common to argue that a individuals tend to display aversion to the taking of risks and b that risk aversion in turn is an explanation for many observed phenomena in the economic world arrow 1971 p 90

the ricardian approach to budget deficits persistent budget deficits have increased economists interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy this paper develops the ricardian approach and contrasts it with standard models the discussion considers from major theoretical objections to ricardian equivalence finite lifetimes imperfect capital markets uncertainty about future taxes and incomes and the distorting effects of taxation the paper then considers empirical evidence on interest rates consumption and saving and current account deficits the conclusion is that the ricardian approach is a useful first order approximation and that this approach will probably become the benchmark model for assessing fiscal policy this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

on the limitations of government borrowing a framework for empiricaltesting this paper seeks to distinguish empirically between two views on the limitations of government borrowing according to one view nothing precludes the government from running a permanent budget deficit paying interest due on the growing debt load simply by issuing new debt an alternative perspective holds that creditors would be unwilling to purchase government debt unless the government made a credible commitment to balance its budget in present value terms we show that distinguishing between these possibilities is mathematically equivalent to testing whether a continuing currency inflation might be fueled by speculation alone or is instead driven solely by economic fundamentals empirical tests which have been developed for this economic question lead us to conclude that postwar u s deficits are largely consistent with the proposition that the government budget must be balanced in present value terms this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

bayes solution to dynamic inventory models under unknown demand distribution this paper considers the periodic review inventory problem for which one or more parameters of the demand distribution are unknown with a known prior distribution chosen from the natural conjugate

crime and social interactions the high variance of crime rates across time and space is one of the oldest puzzles in the social sciences this variance appears too high to be explained by changes in the exogenous costs and benefits of crime we present a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross city variance of crime rates this model provides an index of social interactions which suggests that the amount of social interactions is highest in petty crimes moderate in more serious crimes and almost negligible in murder and rape

lost in the mail a field experiment on crime crime in the mail sector can hamper the development of elec tronic markets we use a field experiment to detect crime and measure its differential impacts we subtly and realistically manipulate the content and information available in mail sent to households and detect high levels of shirking and stealing eighteen percent of the mail never arrived at its des tination and even more was lost if there was even a slight hint of something additional inside the envelope our study demonstrates that privatization has been unable to extricate moral hazard and that crime is strategic and not equally distributed across the population

the simple economics of extortion evidence from trucking in aceh this paper tests whether the behavior of corrupt officials is consistent with standard industrial organization theory we designed a study in which surveyors accompanied indonesian truck drivers on 304 trips during which they observed over 6 000 illegal payments to police soldiers and weigh station attendants using plausibly exogenous changes in the number of checkpoints we show that market structure affects the level of illegal payments we further show that corrupt officials use complex pricing schemes including third degree price discrimination and a menu of two part tariffs our findings illustrate the importance of considering the market structure for bribes when designing anticorruption policy

dynamic pricing advance sales and aggregate demand learning in airlines this paper uses a unique u s airlines panel data set to empirically study the dynamic pricing of inventories with uncertain demand over a finite horizon i estimate a dynamic pricing equation and a dynamic demand equation that jointly characterize the adjustment process between prices and sales as the flight date nears i find that the price increases as the inventory decreases and decreases as there is less time to sell consistent with aggregate demand learning and price adjustment demand shocks have a positive and much larger effect on prices than the positive effect of anticipated sales

obtaining a driver s license in india an experimental approach to studying corruption we conduct two experiments to understand the process of obtaining a driver s license in india in the first experiment we randomly assign license candidates to one of three groups bonus offered a financial reward if they could obtain their license fast lesson offered free driving lessons upfront and control the control group alone illustrates bureaucratic failures 71 of the license getters in that group avoided the mandated driving test and 62 failed a surprise driving test the system responds to private needs there are more license getters in the bonus group but at a social cost there are more license getters who cannot drive in the bonus group the system however also appears to respond to social considerations as there are more license getters in the lesson group large extra legal payments are made by license getters those in the control group pay 2 5 times the official fee more of these extra legal payments take place in the bonus group surprisingly these extra legal payments are not direct bribes to bureaucrats but instead payments to agents in the second experiment we perform an audit study to better understand the role of agents the audit shows that agents can provide licenses to individuals even if they cannot drive but the audit also shows that agents cannot as easily circumvent all other rules we argue that our findings are most consistent with agents being the channel for corruption in this system we also report some suggestive evidence that bureaucrats create red tape possibly to induce more license candidates to use agents

did iraq cheat the united nations underpricing bribes and the oil for food program from 1997 through 2003 the un oil for food program allowed iraq to export oil for humanitarian supplies we hypothesize that iraq deliberately set the price of its oil below market prices to solicit bribes from oil buyers by comparing the price gap between iraqi oil and its close substitutes during the program to the gap prior to the program we nd evidence of signican t underpricing our central estimate suggests that iraq collected 1 3 billion in bribes from underpricing its oil or 2 percent of oil revenues underpricing is higher during periods of high volatility in oil markets when detection is more dicult but declines after the un limited iraq s ability to set the price of its oil

an alternative test of racial prejudice in motor vehicle searches theory and evidence we propose a simple model of trooper behavior to design empirical tests for whether troopers of different races are monolithic in their search behavior and whether they exhibit relative racial prejudice in motor vehicle searches our test of relative racial prejudice provides a partial solution to the well known infra marginality and omitted variables problems associated with outcome tests when applied to a unique data set from florida our tests soundly reject the hypothesis that troopers of different races are monolithic in their search behavior but fail to reject the hypothesis that troopers of different races do not exhibit relative racial prejudice

cointegration and government borrowing constraints evidence for the united states testable implications are derived in a present value borrowing constraint model for the u s federal government critical values for unit root and cointegration tests are calculated with monte carlo studies cointegration techniques are employed to determine whether the government has been involved in perpetual debt financing in recent years the data reject this assertion

tax rates and tax evasion evidence from missing imports in china tax evasion by its very nature is difficult to observe we quantify the effects of tax rates on tax evasion by examining the relationship in china between the tariff schedule and the evasion gap which we define as the difference between hong kong s reported exports to china at the product level and china s reported imports from hong kong our results imply that a one percentage point increase in the tax rate is associated with a 3 percent increase in evasion furthermore the evasion gap is negatively correlated with tax rates on closely related products suggesting that evasion takes place partly through misclassification of imports from higher taxed categories to lower taxed ones in addition to underreporting the value of imports

dynamic pricing with a prior on market response we study a problem of dynamic pricing faced by a vendor with limited inventory uncertain about demand and aiming to maximize expected discounted revenue over an infinite time horizon the vendor learns from purchase data so his strategy must take into account the impact of price on both revenue and future observations we focus on a model in which customers arrive according to a poisson process of uncertain rate each with an independent identically distributed reservation price upon arrival a customer purchases a unit of inventory if and only if his reservation price equals or exceeds the vendor s prevailing price we propose a simple heuristic approach to pricing in this context which we refer to as decay balancing computational results demonstrate that decay balancing offers significant revenue gains over recently studied certainty equivalent and greedy heuristics we also establish that changes in inventory and uncertainty in the arrival rate bear appropriate directional impacts on decay balancing prices in contrast to these alternatives and we derive worst case bounds on performance loss we extend the three aforementioned heuristics to address a model involving multiple customer segments and stores and provide experimental results demonstrating similar relative merits in this context

perverse incentives labor market regulation and performance in the public sector we test the link between labor market regulations and job performance in the public sector using a novel outcome variable namely the number of days it takes the postal service to return letters sent to nonexistent foreign addresses a measure that we argue is an excellent proxy for job performance we find a positive and statistically significant link between these two variables regardless of the labor regulation measure employed changes in specification and even unlikely endogeneity considerations which suggest that this finding may be causal

monitoring motivation and management the determinants of opportunistic behavior in a field experiment economic models of incentives in employment relationships are based on a specific theory of motivation employees are rational cheaters who anticipate the consequences of their actions and shirk when the marginal benefits exceed costs we investigate the rational cheater model by observing how experimentally induced variation in monitoring of telephone call center employees influences opportunism a significant fraction of employees behave as the rational cheater model predicts a substantial proportion of employees however do not respond to manipulations in the monitoring rate this heterogeneity is related to variation in employee assessments of their general treatment by the employer jel d2 j2 l2 l8 m12

a continuous time yield management model with multiple prices and reversible price changes this article studies a continuous time yield management model in which reversible price changes are allowed we assume that perishable assets are offered at a set of discrete price levels demand at each level is a poisson process to maximize the expected revenue management controls the price dynamically as sales evolve we show that a subset of these prices that form a concave envelope is potentially optimal we formulate the problem into an intensity control model and derive the optimal solution in closed form properties of the optimal solution and their policy implementations are discussed numerical examples are provided

winning isn t everything corruption in sumo wrestling although the theoretical literature on corruption is well developed empirical work in this area has lagged because it has proven difficult to isolate corrupt behavior in the data in this paper we look for evidence of corruption in an unlikely place the highest echelons of japanese sumo wrestling this paper provides strong statistical evidence documenting match rigging in sumo wrestling a non linearity in the incentive structure of promotion leads to gains from trade between wrestlers on the margin for achieving a winning record and their opponents we show that wrestlers win a disproportionate share of the matches when they are on the margin increased effort can not explain the findings winning on the bubble is more frequent when the two competitors have met often in the past success on the bubble tends to rise over the course of a wrestler s career but declines in his last year consistent with the game theoretic predictions wrestlers who are victorious when on the bubble lose more frequently than would be expected the next time they meet that opponent suggesting that part of the payment for throwing a match is future payment in kind systematic differences across wrestling stables suggest that the stables play a role in facilitating the corruption in times of increased media scrutiny the match rigging disappears this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

an adjustment scheme for nonlinear pricing problem with two buyers we examine a contracting problem with asymmetric information in a monopoly pricing setting traditionally the problem is modeled as a one period bayesian game where the incomplete information about the buyers preferences is handled with some subjective probability distribution here we suggest an iterative online method to solve the problem we show that when the buyers behave myopically the seller can learn the optimal tariff by selling the product repeatedly in a practical modification of the method the seller offers linear tariffs and adjusts them until optimality is reached the adjustment can be seen as gradient adjustment and it can be done with limited information and so that it benefits both the seller and the buyers our method uses special features of the problem and it is easily implementable

toward a theory of rigidities this paper presents a theory of rigidity or more properly inertia in the responses of economic variables to changing environments the theory rests on three fundamental assumptions 1 that firms are risk averse 2 that firms are uncertain of the impacts of changing decision variables and 3 that this uncertainty increases with the size of deviations in decision variables from appropriately defined past level under these circumstances an optimal portfolio of incremental decision variable adjustments exists which a takes variance minimizing adoptions to environmental change as a point of departure and then b is weighted in favor of changes in variables whose effects are less uncertain in considering price and quantity adjustments this implies that price and wage adjustments should largely incorporate expected inflation and from that point should be small relative to quantity adjustments since in most situations the uncertainties associated with the consequences of quantity adjustment should be smaller than those associated with price adjustments this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

dynamic pricing with online learning and strategic consumers an application of the aggregating algorithm we study the problem faced by a monopolistic company that is dynamically pricing a perishable product or service and simultaneously learning the demand characteristics of its customers in the learning procedure the company observes the sales history over consecutive learning stages and predicts consumer demand by applying an aggregating algorithm aa to a pool of online stochastic predictors numerical implementation uses finite sample distribution approximations that are periodically updated using the most recent sales data these are subsequently altered with a random step characterizing the stochastic predictors the company s pricing policy is optimized with a simulation based procedure integrated with aa the methodology of the paper is general and independent of specific distributional assumptions we illustrate this procedure on a demand model for a market in which customers are aware that pricing is dynamic may time their purchases strategically and compete for a limited product supply we derive the form of this demand model using a game theoretic consumer choice model and study its structural properties numerical experiments demonstrate that the learning procedure is robust to deviations of the actual market from the model of the market used in learning

local capture evidence from a central government transfer program in uganda according to official statistics 20 percent of uganda s total public expenditure was spent on education in the mid 1990s most of it on primary education one of the large public programs was a capitation grant to cover schools nonwage expenditures using panel data from a unique survey of primary schools we assess the extent to which the grant actually reached the intended end user schools the survey data reveal that during 1991 1995 the schools on average received only 13 percent of the grants most schools received nothing the bulk of the school grant was captured by local officials and politicians the data also reveal considerable variation in grants received across schools suggesting that rather than being passive recipients of flows from the government schools use their bargaining power to secure greater shares of funding we find that schools in better off communities managed to claim a higher share of their entitlements as a result actual education spending in contrast to budget allocations is regressive similar surveys in other african countries confirm that uganda is not a special case

stalking information bayesian inventory management with unobserved lost sales retailers are frequently uncertain about the underlying demand distribution of a new product when taking the empirical bayesian approach of scarf 1959 they simultaneously stock the product over time and learn about the distribution assuming that unmet demand is lost and unobserved this learning must be based on observing sales rather than demand which differs from sales in the event of a stockout using the framework and results of braden and freimer 1991 the cumulative learning about the underlying demand distribution is captured by two parameters a scale parameter that reflects the predicted size of the underlying market and a shape parameter that indicates both the size of the market and the precision with which the underlying distribution is known an important simplification result of scarf 1960 and azoury 1985 which allows the scale parameter to be removed from the optimization is shown to extend to this setting we present examples that reveal two interesting phenomena 1 a retailer may hope that compared to stocking out realized demand will be strictly less than the stock level even though stocking out would signal a stochastically larger demand distribution and 2 it can be optimal to drop a product after a period of successful sales we also present specific conditions under which the following results hold 1 investment in excess stocks to enhance learning will occur in every dynamic problem and 2 a product is never dropped after a period of poor sales the model is extended to multiple independent markets whose distributions depend proportionately on a single unknown parameter we argue that smaller markets should be given better service as an effective means of acquiring information

fighting corruption to improve schooling evidence from a newspaper campaign in uganda what are the most effective ways to increase primary school enrollment and student learning we argue that innovations in governance of social services may yield the highest return since social service delivery in developing countries is often plagued by inefficiencies and corruption we illustrate this by using data from an unusual policy experiment a newspaper campaign in uganda aimed at reducing capture of public funds by providing schools parents with information to monitor local officials handling of a large education grant program the campaign was highly successful and the reduction in capture had a positive effect on enrollment and student learning jel d73 i22 o12

the rigidity of prices this paper uses evidence on individual transaction prices to analyze price behavior the evidence shows that for many transactions pricesremain rigid for periods exceeding one year the rigidity of price ispositively correlated with industry concentration for several productsthe correlation of price changes across buyers is low the paper alsoinvestigates the relationship between price rigidity price change andthe length of time a buyer and seller have been doing business together the author interprets the evidence as emphasizing the importance of nonprice rationing and the inadequacy of models in whichprice movements alone clear markets copyright 1986 by american economic association

sustainability and comovement of government debt in emu countries a panel data analysis we investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 european monetary union emu countries over the period 1970 2016 panel unit root tests in the presence of cross section dependence show that the government debt series is stationary indicating that the solvency condition would be satisfied for these countries this confirms the effectiveness of the austerity measures implemented by these member states moreover an unobserved common factor drives the comovement of government debt in the eurozone

a taxonomy and research overview of perishable asset revenue management yield management overbooking and pricing this paper proposes the term perishable asset revenue management to denote the field that combines the areas of yield management overbooking and pricing for perishable assets after summarizing the characteristics common to problems in this field the paper discusses the objectives and constraints faced by decision makers then it offers a comprehensive taxonomy with 14 different elements and reviews the research that has been done related to each element finally it suggests some important areas of future research that can help bridge the gap between theory and application

persistent deficits and the market value of government debt summary this paper investigates whether postwar canadian public financial policy satisfies a borrowing constraint direct tests of the present value relation suggested by this constraint shed light on the sustainability of current policy we examine monthly data on canadian federal government finances using tests for cointegration the finding is that the joint behaviour of real debt and real surpluses is inconsistent with intertemporal budget balance for the government one interpretation of this finding is that the government is systematically paying real returns to bondholders by issuing further debt alternatively bondholders may expect the government to finance future interest payments from a source other than primary surpluses e g the sale of physical assets much empirical macroeconomics is concerned with the effects of public financial policies numerous studies have examined whether such policies affect interest rates inflation or national income and its components these examinations raise the question of the efficacy of government budget deficits they generally assume that a borrowing constraint holds in the public finances some positive theories of public debt creation also make this assumption examples include barro s 1979 history of us federal deficits and sargent s 1986 rationalizations of recent us budgetary policy lucas and stokey s 1983 discussion of optimal taxation also involves this assumption hansen roberds and sargent 1987 outline the testable implications of present value budget balance and hamilton and flavin 1986 investigate the feasibility of recurring deficits by directly testing the us federal government s borrowing constraint such tests seem natural given both the recent boom is testing more complicated first order difference equations in macroeconomics and the widespread discussion of current deficits this paper tests the present value borrowing constraint using recently constructed data on the market value of outstanding canadian federal government debt we use monthly rather than annual as in hamilton and flavin data and conduct tests of univariate integration and of bivariate cointegration to investigate the joint time series properties of debt and deficits one finding is that real debt and real surpluses are integrated processes evidence of their cointegration is mixed and point estimates of the cointegrating vector suggest that the expected real rate of return on debt is negative moreover the surplus measured to include interest payments as government spending is nonstationary these findings are inconsistent

carrots sticks and broken windows abstract this paper investigates the effect of economic conditions carrots and sanctions sticks on murder assault robbery burglary motor vehicle theft grand larceny and rape in new york city using monthly time series data spanning 1974 99 carrots are measured by the unemployment rate and the real minimum wage sticks are measured by the number of felony arrests size of the police force and number of new york city residents in prison in addition the paper tests the validity of the broken windows hypothesis consistent with its implementation by the new york police department we use misdemeanor arrests as a measure of broken windows policing the broken windows hypothesis has validity in the case of robbery motor vehicle theft and grand larceny while both economic and deterrence variables are important in explaining the decline in crime the contribution of deterrence measures is larger than those of economic variables

myopic policies for some inventory models with uncertain demand distributions the majority of papers on stochastic inventory theory make the assumption that the distribution of consumer demand in each time period is known with certainty while this assumption is unsupported in many applied contexts it is conventionally held that more realistic models are more difficult to solve and will not yield simple operational policies this paper shows that a simple inventory policy based upon a critical fractile can be optimal or near optimal in some inventory models with parameter adaptive demand processes in these some parameter of the demand distribution is not known with certainty and estimates of the parameter are updated in a statistical fashion as demand is observed through time examples include exponentially smoothed forecasts and bayesian updating of parameter estimates bounds on the value loss relative to optimal cost when using the critical fractile policy can be calculated directly from the problem data some numerical examples illustrate the technique

dynamic pricing and warranty policies for products with fixed lifetime abstract we consider a repairable product with known market entry and departure times a warranty policy is offered with product purchase under which a customer can have a failed item repaired free of charge in the warranty period it is assumed that customers are heterogeneous in their risk attitudes toward uncertain repair costs incurred after the warranty expires the objective is to determine a joint dynamic pricing and warranty policy for the lifetime of the product which maximizes the manufacturer s expected profit in the first part of the analysis we consider a linearly decreasing price function and a constant warranty length we first study customers purchase patterns under several different pricing strategies by the manufacturer and then discuss the optimal pricing and warranty strategy in the second part we assume that the warranty length can be altered once during the product lifetime in developing a joint pricing and warranty policy numerical studies show that a dynamic warranty policy can significantly outperform a fixed length warranty policy

a neoclassical perspective on budget deficits i n the 1988 presidential campaign virtually every serious candidate spoke of the urgent need to trim government budget deficits public opinion polls have identified federal deficits as a key economic issue second only to unemployment while many economists are relieved by what they perceive to be a long overdue political response to a critical economic problem others regard the fuss as much ado about nothing it is indeed remarkable that economists can disagree so severely over an issue which commands such a uniform reaction from laymen of widely different ideologies and political affiliations generally speaking there are three schools of thought concerning the economic effects of budget deficits neoclassical keynesian and ricardian before proceeding further it is useful to review the basic structure and implications of each paradigm the neoclassical paradigm envisions farsighted individuals planning consumption over their own life cycles budget deficits raise total lifetime consumption by shifting taxes to subsequent generations if economic resources are fully employed increased consumption necessarily implies decreased saving interest rates must then rise to bring capital markets into balance thus persistent deficits crowd out private capital accumulation in the current economic environment most economists would agree that these consequences would be highly detrimental