smallholder market participation concepts and evidence from eastern and southern africa abstract this paper reviews the evidence on smallholder market participation with a focus on staple foodgrains i e cereals in eastern and southern africa in an effort to help better identify what interventions are most likely to break smallholders out of the semi subsistence poverty trap that appears to ensnare much of rural africa the conceptual and empirical evidence suggests that interventions aimed at facilitating smallholder organization at reducing the costs of intermarket commerce and perhaps especially at improving poorer households access to improved technologies and productive assets are central to stimulating smallholder market participation and escape from semi subsistence poverty traps macroeconomic and trade policy tools appear less useful in inducing market participation by poor smallholders in the region

national agricultural commodity research priorities for pakistan a future agricultural research agenda for pakistan and its provinces was developed as part of the national master agricultural research plan nmarp under the government of pakistan world bank agricultural research project ii arp ii the current research agenda mainly keeps pace with maintenance research and little contribution is being made to increase the productivity above maintenance levels for most crop and livestock commodities thus the present pakistan agricultural research system cannot contribute in any substantial or efficient way to the narrowing of pakistan s projected food deficit anticipated in the next 15 years a major thrust of the arp ii project was identifying a new research agenda with agricultural research priority setting as the basis an ex ante economic surplus priority setting analysis at the national level was undertaken for selected agricultural commodities as part of the priority setting process three separate research funding scenarios were analyzed 1 scenario i an ex ante analysis using the present research commodity funding levels and present research management level for each year over the next five years 2 scenario ii an ex ante analysis using double the present funding level for each year over the next 5 years with a higher research management level than at present and 3 scenario iii an ex ante analysis at an optimally funded level with a higher research management level an efficiency index npv divided by the present value of research expenditure was used for the priority ranking of commodities a framework for using the information generated by the ex ante economic surplus method is presented the results of the analysis proved to be useful as baseline information for researchers and research managers to assess the overall budget commitment required for agricultural research in pakistan and for identifying an overall research strategy at the national level

technology adoption under seed access constraints and the economic impacts of improved pigeonpea varieties in tanzania dry land legumes well adapted to drought prone areas have largely been neglected in the past despite the good opportunities they offer for income growth and food and nutritional security for the poor this study evaluated the adoption and impact of two farmer and market preferred and disease resistant pigeonpea varieties that were developed and promoted in semi arid tanzania the new varieties were resistant to fusarium wilt a fungal disease devastating the crop however farmers wanting to adopt new varieties did not adopt due to seed access constraints and under developed seed delivery systems adoption of new varieties is therefore analyzed using an augmented double hurdle model that allows estimating variety adoption conditional on seed access thresholds accounting for the additional information on sample separation the study identifies the crucial role of seed access local supply extension education participatory decision making capital and household assets in determining adoption the social economic benefits of the technology and policies for improved seed access were further analyzed using the extended economic surplus method dream model even under restrictive assumptions overall discounted benefits were found to be quite attractive indicating the need for additional efforts to scale up the success story analysis of changes in research benefits from relaxing the seed access constraint showed that net gains would increase by up to 30 if farmer access to improved seeds can be assured smallholder farmers are the major beneficiaries along with consumers and rural net buyers who gain from productivity induced lower market prices

impact of modern agricultural technologies on smallholder welfare evidence from tanzania and ethiopia this paper evaluates the potential impact of adoption of improved legume technologies on rural household welfare measured by consumption expenditure in rural ethiopia and tanzania the study utilizes cross sectional farm household level data collected in 2008 from a randomly selected sample of 1313 households 700 in ethiopia and 613 in tanzania the causal impact of technology adoption is estimated by utilizing endogenous switching regression this helps us estimate the true welfare effect of technology adoption by controlling for the role of selection problem on production and adoption decisions our analysis reveals that adoption of improved agricultural technologies has a significant positive impact consumption expenditure in per adult equivalent terms in rural ethiopia and tanzania this confirms the potential role of technology adoption in improving rural household welfare as higher consumption expenditure from improved technologies translate into lower poverty higher food security and greater ability to withstand risk an analysis of the determinants of adoption highlighted inadequate local supply of seed access to information and perception about the new cultivars as key constraints for technology adoption

world poverty and the role of agricultural technology direct and indirect effects agricultural technology can help reduce poverty through direct and indirect effects direct effects are gains for the adopters while indirect effects are gains derived from adoption by others leading to lower food prices employment creation and growth linkage effects conceptualising and measuring these effects is highly complex yet is needed for each region if technology is to be used as an effective instrument for poverty reduction we propose a methodology for doing this in the context of computable general equilibrium modelling and apply it to archetype models for africa asia and latin america results show that the dominant effect of technology on poverty is through direct effects in africa indirect agricultural employment effects in asia and linkage effects through the rest of the economy in latin america in each case increasing the poverty reduction effect through the targeting of technology across crops and through complementary rural development programmes is also explored

differential technology adoption and income distribution in pakistan implications for research resource allocation a multi market model of technological change in food production is used to simulate the long run income distributional implications of differential diffusion of currently available wheat technologies in pakistan the results indicate that a research agenda emphasizing technologies suited to pakistan s favored production environments would enhance overall production without compromising inter group equity it is found that when commodity prices are market determined net consuming households are the major beneficiaries of technological change however in the more common situation of government intervention in markets for staple foods net producing households are the principal beneficiaries of technological change

economic reform and armed conflict in mozambique abstract this paper discusses the evolution of the mozambican economy in the 1980s particular emphasis is placed on the effects of the policy reform package implemented by the government beginning in 1987 this reform centered around the restoration of economic incentives to the agricultural sector is an example of a structural adjustment package pursued under extremely adverse conditions the new strategy has yielded some favorable results but also illustrates some of the limits of price policy in sub saharan africa

agricultural research priority setting under multiple objectives an example from zimbabwe abstract strategic priorities are assessed for the agricultural research system in zimbabwe in a situation characterized by multiple objectives farm types and agro ecological zones economic surplus analysis is used to rank research programs by commodity and research program areas in total and disaggregated by large and small farms in high and low potential regions no funding current funding and 50 more funding are allowed for each program in the analysis an optimal research portfolio is developed first with all weight placed on efficiency and second with increasing weights placed on benefits going to small holder farmers even with no additional weight placed on small holders research programs for both small farms and low potential areas enter into the optimal research portfolio as more emphasis is given to small holders the reduction in overall efficiency gained due to research is relatively modest maize and cotton were the highest ranked commodity research programs of the 36 commodities considered for both large and small farms agronomy and soils research are relatively more important for small holders while plant breeding and crop protection are relatively more important for large scale farmers

impact of information technology capital on firm scope and performance the role of asset characteristics this research draws on transaction cost and resource based theory to examine how information technology it capital moderates the relationship between different types of assets and firm scope both vertical integration and diversification the analysis suggests that it capital enables firms with narrowly valuable assets to be less vertically integrated and less diversified and enables firms with broadly valuable assets to be more vertically integrated and more diversified the moderating influence of it capital on the relationship between different types of assets and firms vertical and product market scope is consistent with transaction cost as well as resource based traditions abstract from author

technological change rediscovering the engine of productivity growth in china s rural economy abstract this paper focuses on measuring the relative importance of the role of technology versus that of institutional innovation in china s rural economy a six equation rice sector model explaining provincial level technology adoption yield and factor demand are econometrically estimated using data from china s 13 rice growing provinces for the period 1975 1990 growth decomposition analysis identifies technology adoption as the most important determinant of rice yield growth during 1978 1984 accounting for nearly 40 percent the change institutional reform accounted for 35 percent of the growth in 1985 1990 technology accounts for all of the increase in rice yields the study demonstrates earlier studies may have over estimated the impact of decollectivization

the impact of research led agricultural productivity growth on poverty reduction in africa asia and latin america abstract twenty percent of the world s population or 1 2 billion live on less than 1 per day 70 of these are rural and 90 are in asia and sub saharan africa research led technological change in agriculture generates sufficient productivity growth to give high rates of return in africa and asia and has a substantial impact on poverty currently reducing this number by 27 million per annum whereas productivity growth in industry and services has no impact the per capita cost of poverty reduction by means of agricultural research expenditures in africa is 144 and in asia 180 or 50 cents per day but this is covered by output growth by contrast the per capita cost for the richer countries of latin america is over 11 000

economic efficiency and supply response of women as farm managers comparative evidence from western kenya summary this paper assessed the relative economic efficiency and output supply and input demand responses of women farmers in western kenya the results showed that women are as technically and allocatively efficient as men however neither men nor women have absolute allocative efficiency women farmers are equally responsive to price incentives in terms of output supply and input demand while education and extension contact have significant effects on overall maize supply and input demand only extension contact has significant effects among women farmers the paper discusses a number of significant results and concludes with implications for policy

coase s choice of methodology this paper examines the nature of ronald h coase s realism by considering the relationship between theories and facts in his methodology i focus especially on coase s criticisms of friedman s 1953 essay as set out in a lecture published in 1982 it is shown that in developing his argument coase applies his institutional economics to address the question of how economists operating within a regulated market for ideas choose their theories he calls for realism in methodology and carries out an empirical study of economists choices he explores how the profession is regulated and highlights how discourse impacts on the functioning of science a key question addressed within this paper is how can coase maintain a sociological and rhetorical view of science without falling into relativism i identify the different motives for theory choice that coase considers and show that his answer is both institutional and epistemic this helps to clarify the status of the empirical basis in coase s methodology and sheds new light on the nature of his realism i conclude by carrying out a reflexive analysis of coase s text as a text that attempts to justify the methodology on which it is itself based

forecasting resource allocation decisions under climate uncertainty fire suppression with assessment of net benefits of research making input decisions under climate uncertainty often involves two stage methods that use expensive and opaque transfer functions this article describes an alternative single stage approach to such decisions using forecasting methods the example shown is for preseason fire suppression resource contracting decisions faced by the united states forest service two stage decision tools have been developed for these decisions and we compare the expected gains to the agency in terms of reduced personnel costs of the single stage model over the two stage model existing hiring decisions and decisions that would have been made given perfect foresight about wildfire activity our analysis demonstrates the potential gains to versions of our single stage model over existing hiring decisions equivalent to a benefit cost ratio of 22 the research also identified additional gains accruing from imposing biases on the single stage model associated with asymmetric penalties from contracting decisions copyright 2008 oxford university press

the economics of food aid under subsistence farming with an application to malawi abstract we investigate how food aid affects price and production of staple food with a partial equilibrium model with non separable production and consumption the model captures the key characteristics of sub saharan africa subsistence economies simulations generate negative but also positive food aid elasticities of production conditions are identified which mitigate the negative impact and support a positive impact the share of domestic food production in total staple food demand and the share of income from staple food production in total household income are key determinants price and production equations estimated with a panel of district data of the malawi maize market for the period 1999 2010 show a small positive impact of food aid large negative impacts of food aid are not likely given production and income shares and behavioural responses

can food for work encourage agricultural production abstract food for work ffw is the most widely used type of public works program in ethiopia through which a high share of the food aid is distributed this paper assesses the impacts of ffw in tigray a chronically food insecure region in ethiopia in terms of relieving liquidity constraints and thereby improving input use in agriculture a heckman selection model on the adoption and intensity of fertilizer use demonstrated that ffw positively influenced the decision to adopt fertilizer and there was no evidence of disincentive effect

productivity and land enhancing technologies in northern ethiopia health public investments and sequential adoption the adoption of more efficient farming practices and technologies that enhance agricultural productivity and improve environmental sustainability is instrumental for achieving economic growth food security and poverty alleviation in sub saharan africa our research examines the interaction between public investments community health and adoption of productivity and land enhancing technologies by households in the northern ethiopian state of tigray agricultural technology adoption decisions are modeled as a sequential process where the timing of choices can matter we find that time spent sick and opportunity costs of caring for sick family members are significant factors in adoption sickness through its impact on household income and labor allocation decisions for healthcare and other activities significantly reduces the likelihood of technology adoption our findings suggest that agencies working to improve agricultural productivity and land resource conservation should consider not only the financial status of potential adopters but also their related health situation

ex post impacts of improved maize varieties on poverty in rural ethiopia public agricultural research has been conducted in africa for decades while many studies have examined its aggregate impacts few have investigated how it affects the poor this paper helps fill this gap by applying a new procedure to explore the ex post impacts of improved maize varieties on poverty in rural ethiopia plot level yield and cost changes due to adoption are first estimated using instrumental variable and marginal treatment effect techniques where possible heterogeneity is carefully accounted for a backward derivation procedure is then developed to link treatment effect estimates with an economic surplus model to identify the counterfactual household income that would have existed without improved maize varieties poverty impacts are finally estimated by exploiting the differences between observed and counterfactual income distributions improved maize varieties have led to a 0 8 1 3 percentage drop of poverty headcount ratio and relative reductions of poverty depth and severity however poor producers benefit the least from adoption due to the smallness of their land holdings

addressing food security in africa via multiple livelihood strategies of women farmers abstract because food insecurity is primarily a problem of low household incomes and poverty and not just inadequate food production projects and programs for food insecure african farmers which aim at increasing production of subsistence crops may be ineffective instead government should look for ways to improve returns to farmers resources in a broader context which may include expanded opportunities for non farm microenterprises and agricultural labor this has been the conventional wisdom since the writings of amartya sen still unclear however are the implications of his thinking for the roles of african women farmers who are traditionally the food crop producers in africa and are often food insecure immediate expansion of income earning activities such as cash cropping and non farm microenterprises may not be possible for women in male headed households in many african societies where cash income is seen as part of the male domain in addition women farmers may need a long adjustment period to diversify their income sources fully because most african countries are at the early stages of structural transformation different developmental interventions both in policy and in technology are therefore needed to address food security and economic transformations in africa in the short and long term

measuring the impacts of agricultural research on poverty reduction policymakers are increasingly calling upon agricultural research managers to consider poverty reduction objectives when making resource allocations the authors present a simple method to measure the impact of agricultural research on the poor this method has the advantage that it presents the results in a manner consistent with commonly used measures of poverty this consistency and focus should facilitate and enhance dialogue between policymakers and research managers when deciding on resource allocations and assessing impacts on poverty reduction an illustrative application is presented using data from malawi

food aid impacts in rural kenya assessing the potential role of food aid in economic development requires that analytical attention be given to both household production and consumption consequences of food aid projects effects of a food for work ffw project in rural kenya are assessed using a peasant household firm model which incorporates a linear programming model and an almost ideal demand system the results indicate that program participants have net returns 52 percent higher than nonparticipants most of which is due to induced effects of capital formation on own farm production greater capital formation increases the opportunity cost of participants time encouraging a transition over time from ffw activities to greater own farm production ffw increases food demand employment and marketable surplus

global growing area elasticities of key agricultural crops estimated using dynamic heterogeneous panel methods we estimate the short and long run global response of corn soybeans wheat and rice growing areas to output price changes allowing responses to vary across countries using methods from the panel time series literature our estimates of growing area response are considerably lower than estimates obtained using more traditional models previous findings appear biased due to the assumption of homogeneous response across countries our aggregate estimates of short and long run elasticities of four crop growing areas with respect to average price are 0 024 and 0 143 respectively crop specific results indicate that both corn and soybean growing areas are generally more responsive than wheat and rice for corn and soybeans the long run own price growing area elasticities are 0 274 and 0 793 respectively the long run own price elasticities for wheat and rice are 0 279 and 0 045 respectively the short run own price elasticities for corn and soybeans are 0 133 and 0 199 respectively which are higher than wheat 0 037 and rice 0 00001

does food aid have disincentive effects on local production a general equilibrium perspective on food aid in ethiopia this paper examined impacts of food aid on domestic food production employing a computable general equilibrium modelling technique and using data from ethiopia the simulation experiments have shown that food aid has unambiguous disincentive effects on domestic food production the removal of food aid caused a modest increase in food prices but this stimulated food production employment and income generation effects of the latter outweighed the adverse effect of the former consequently the removal of food aid led to improvements in aggregate household welfare contrary to some concerns in the food aid literature that any reduction in food aid would hurt the poor the simulation experiments suggested that actually poor rural households and urban wage earners are the ones who benefit most in absence of food aid but entrepreneurs are more likely to encounter a marginal welfare decline we have distinguished between in kind food aid and cash equivalent transfers in order to isolate the disincentives that in kind transfers would make to domestic production from those that are related to household purchasing power problem the expansionary effect of removing food aid becomes significantly larger when it is accompanied by cash equivalent payments because the latter would provide demand side stimulus to agriculture while the removal of in kind transfers would stimulate supply side with the supply and demand side effects reinforcing each other in our modelling framework the only adverse effect would be a modest deterioration in the external current account because the expansionary effects of food aid would cause imports to rise but exports to fall

the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the distribution of household welfare and poverty in rural kenya1 this study estimates the effects of a large discrete maize price increase on the welfare of a sample of rural kenyan households the usual first order welfare approximation formula is extended to a second order formula that allows for supply and demand responses to the price change results show that many rural households are not affected greatly by the price change and there are about as many gainers as losers however these full sample results mask important differences across regions welfare gains generally take place in major production areas while losses are in areas where most households are net buyers of maize semiparametric methods are used to investigate the relationship between income and the size of the welfare effect and poverty dominance techniques are applied to study the impacts of the maize price increase on rural poverty

estimating the benefits of plant breeding research methodological issues and practical challenges impact assessment studies consistently show that the benefits generated by plant breeding are large positive and widely distributed numerous case studies have concluded that investment in plant breeding research generates attractive rates of return compared to alternative investment opportunities that welfare gains resulting from the adoption of modern varieties mvs reach both favoured and marginal environments and that benefits are broadly shared by producers and consumers but just how reliable are the results of studies that estimate the benefits of plant breeding research this article reviews methods used to estimate the benefits of plant breeding research and discusses theoretical and empirical issues that often receive inadequate attention in applied impact assessment work our objective is not to question the validity of the theoretical frameworks commonly used to estimate the benefits of plant breeding research but rather to examine problems that can arise when the widely accepted theoretical frameworks are used for empirical analysis most of these problems can be grouped into three basic categories 1 problems associated with measuring adoption and diffusion of mvs 2 problems associated with estimating benefits attributable to adoption of mvs and 3 problems associated with assigning credit among the various plant breeding programmes that participated in developing the mvs

efficiency equity tradeoffs and the scope for resource reallocation in agricultural research evidence from nigeria on the basis of projected economic and poverty impacts of alternative commodity research programs this article assessed efficiency and equity tradeoffs and the scope for research resource reallocation in nigeria given the importance of major food staples to both poor and nonpoor households in production and consumption introducing a poverty dimension revealed no significant shift in priorities compared with those implied by efficiency the results showed that neither the additional benefits to the poor nor the foregone benefits to society are significant from prioritizing research according to equity relative to efficiency criteria as current priorities are supported by neither efficiency nor equity criteria however there is considerable scope for maximizing research benefits to the poor through informed reallocation of research resources the article concludes with a discussion of the patterns of resource reallocations implied by efficiency and equity criteria

peanut research and poverty reduction impacts of variety improvement to control peanut viruses in uganda a procedure is developed and applied for predicting ex ante impacts of agricultural research on aggregate poverty using as an example the poverty reducing impact of peanut research in uganda market level information on economic surplus changes is combined with a procedure for allocating income changes to individual households characteristics of farmers that affect their likelihood of technology adoption are used to create a technology adoption profile associated changes in poverty resulting from adoption are computed using poverty indices predicted income changes at the household level are aggregated to the market level and reconciled with calculations of economic surplus changes

agricultural supply response a survey abstract this paper surveys the literature on agricultural supply response to prices in developing countries empirical estimates of elasticities depend both on the methodology adopted and on country specific factors relating to technology economic structure and macro constraints the paper seeks to establish some general conclusions on supply responsiveness within these limitations supply response to output prices at the aggregate and at the crop levels is considered first crop specific acreage elasticities range between zero and 0 8 in the short run while long run elasticities tend to be higher between 0 3 and 1 2 yield elasticities are smaller and less stable than acreage elasticities clearly inter crop pricing can be relied upon to effect shifts in the commodity composition of agricultural output evidence also suggests that supply elasticities vary systematically with such factors as price and yield risks multiple cropping the importance of the crop farm incomes farm size tenancy and literacy the most controversial and important aspect of supply response is the effect on aggregate agricultural output of agriculture s terms of trade conventional time series estimates range from 0 1 to 0 3 a major cross country study reports an aggregate elasticity as high as 1 66 it is argued that cross country estimates are apt to exaggerate aggregate responsiveness while time series studies underestimate it somewhat for ldcs a tentative range of 0 4 to 0 5 seems plausible hence the distributive effects of the terms of trade are likely to be more significant than the allocative effects asian evidence shows that only a third of the inter country differences in fertilizer use can be attributed to fertilizer price policies provided new technologies and infrastructure are in place fertilizer subsidies can help in technology diffusion and in over coming credit constraints the choice between price supports and input subsidies will depend on a variety of country or situation specific factors nevertheless a significant general factor favoring price supports is that they can more easily be coupled with price stabilization goals than input subsidies though sparse the available evidence on the response of marketed surplus suggests that price policy is not a reliable instrument for regulating inter sectoral trade

does food aid disrupt local food market evidence from rural ethiopia the paper examines the impact of food aid on households marketing behavior based on a panel of households followed during 1994 2009 in 15 villages of ethiopia the impact of aid is examined at the intensive margin on quantities produced sold or bought by the households and at the extensive margin on the number of producers sellers and buyers food aid reduces the probability of being a producer it also increases the probability of being a seller after a reform of aid policy in 2004 from repeated emergency distributions toward a multi year program aiming at agricultural development

the economic and poverty impacts of maize research in west and central africa this article assembles the results of three multicountry surveys on variety performance and adoption patterns to measure the impacts of maize research in west and central africa from 1981 to 2005 and uses cost data since 1971 to compute social rates of return on public investments in maize research in the region adoption of modern varieties increased from less than 5 of the maize area in the 1970s to about 60 in 2005 yielding an aggregate rate of return on research and development r d investment of 43 the estimated number of people moved out of poverty through adoption of new maize varieties rose gradually in the 1980s to more than one million people per year since the mid 1990s over half of these impacts can be attributed to international maize research at iita and cimmyt the article concludes with a discussion of strategic options to enhance the impacts of maize research in the region

third world development food employment and growth interactions over the next few decades an unprecedented number of people and proportion of the world s population will reside in countries passing through a development phase in which domestic demand for food grows at a high rate relative to domestic production of food that phase is described by high per capita income growth rates in a context of low base incomes and rapid population growth in this phase the innate difficulty for food production growth rates to keep pace with demand growth is enhanced by the still immature system for shifting agricultural supply schedules which is characteristic of this relatively early stage of economic growth a substantial proportion of the population now experiencing accelerating economic growth falls in countries which derive a major portion of income from exports of oil but increasingly the source is greater resource productivity through economic development and technological change the latter is the result of the past few decades of concentrated effort to lay the institutional and physical infrastructure of a modern economic system rising real food prices caused by greatly accelerated growth in demand for food will tend to restrain growth in developing countries and increase relative and absolute poverty the extent of real price increase for food will be substantially determined by the rate of technological change and supply elasticity in developed countries this is because in the eveloping countries says law tends to operate in the market for food and so accelerated growth in food production tends to create a roughly commensurate or even greater increase in demand for food in this context it becomes economic for developing countries to place a greater emphasis on agricultural production in their development strategies than was justified in earlier decades success in such an effort will diffuse the benefits of growth more widely than alternative strategies and will even accelerate growth if as has often been the case previous emphasis on agriculture was suboptimal for the earlier conditions thus over the next decade the economic pressures on the food front may well have a salutary effect on the pace and pattern of development

the potential benefits of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in uruguay lessons for small developing countries abstract in many developing countries the potential benefits from adopting a transgenic variety developed by a multinational corporation are limited by the crop s small production base this paper presents an ex ante evaluation of the economic impact of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in a small developing country uruguay to fully account for the multinational s market power the firm s seed markup is assumed to affect the adoption rate for the variety stochastic simulation techniques are employed to understand how potential benefits may vary with changes in technology yield costs and adoption parameters the results indicate a 1 82 million mean net present value for producers from the development and utilization of transgenic rice in uruguay and 0 55 million for the multinational these relatively small multinational firm benefits suggest that a firm will not undertake significant efforts to develop transgenic varieties adapted to local conditions without either strategic partnerships with local institutions or access to wider regional markets

ex ante agricultural research evaluation with site specific technology generation the case of sorghum in kenya abstract agricultural commodity research has very site specific productivity impacts crucial determinants of the magnitude and distribution of research benefits include agroecological conditions for technology generation and adoption as well as commodity market structure this paper presents a process for ex ante research evaluation which accounts for these factors with a dynamic spatial multi market model simulation results based on sorghum research in kenya demonstrate that potential research benefits can vary dramatically across program research target zones in kenya however population induced demand growth not technological development will have the greatest influence on future sorghum markets

worldwide acreage and yield response to international price change and volatility a dynamic panel data analysis for wheat rice corn and soybeans this study estimates a worldwide aggregate supply response for key agricultural commodities namely wheat rice corn and soybeans by employing a newly developed multi country crop and calendar specific seasonally disaggregated model with price changes and price volatility applied accordingly the findings reveal that although higher output prices serve as incentives to improve global crop supply as expected output price volatility acts as a disincentive depending on the crop the results show that own price supply elasticities range from about 0 05 to 0 40 output price volatility however has negative correlations with crop supply implying that farmers shift land other inputs and yield improving investments to crops with less volatile prices simulating the impact of price dynamics since 2006 we find that price risk has reduced the production response of wheat in particular and to a lesser extent rice thus dampening price incentive effects the simulation analysis shows that the increase in own crop price volatility during the 2006 2010 period has dampened yield by about 1 2 for the crops considered

credit constraints their existence determinants and implications for u s farm and nonfarm sole proprietorships the objective of this study is to determine the effect of credit constraints on production for farm and nonfarm sole proprietorships a propensity score matching estimator is employed to provide unbiased estimates of the production impacts of being denied credit the empirical results demonstrate that the value of production is significantly lower for credit constrained sole proprietorships if this drop in the value of production is aggregated to a national level it constitutes only 3 and 13 of total value of production for farm and nonfarm sole proprietorships respectively copyright 2009 oxford university press

estimating the supply response of cotton and cereal crops in smallholder production systems recent evidence from mali cotton is one of the most important crops in west africa and is a major catalyst of economic development in rural areas but the sector has suffered from a decline in the world cotton price after 1999 this article exploits an unusual data set following 82 farmers over 14 years from 1994 through 2007 to estimate a nerlovian supply response model for cotton maize sorghum and millet in long term rotation the resulting system of equations is estimated with two stage least squares 2sls showing that this sample of malian cotton producers have responded to prices in a relatively inelastic manner with supply elasticities only about one half of those estimated for producers in developed countries policy reforms could help producers respond more easily to prices changes as well as to raise average productivity levels

food aid and adult nutrition in rural ethiopia insight into the role of safety nets that contribute to adult nutrition is an important component to understanding the dynamics of poverty in developing countries this article uses panel data from rural ethiopia on individual nutritional status to test for an effect of public transfers on adult body mass index bmi results show that among adult household members male members are the primary beneficiaries of food aid as male and female aid recipients tend to invest aid receipts in male household members these results are consistent with a theory in which additional resources are allocated to members of the household whose market returns are higher or those who engage in activities that expend higher levels of energy for high asset households female household members benefit if the aid recipient is a female women in low asset households appear to be adversely affected by aid receipts and evidence suggests that women with little bargaining power suffer the most the results suggest that aid receipts are useful in mitigating fluctuations in adult bmi over a short time period

the impact of improved maize varieties on poverty in mexico a propensity score matching approach summary this study examines the adoption of improved maize germplasm in oaxaca and chiapas in mexico it employs a propensity score matching approach to analyze the impact of the adoption of improved maize varieties on household income and poverty reduction using cross sectional data of 325 farmers from the two regions the findings reveal a robust positive and significant impact of improved maize variety adoption on farm household welfare measured by per capita expenditure and poverty reduction specifically the empirical results suggest that adoption of improved maize varieties helped raise household per capita expenditure by an average of 136 173 mexican pesos thereby reducing their probability of falling below the poverty line by roughly 19 31

regional policy and company investment behaviour mcgreevy t e and thomson a w j 1983 regional policy and company investment behaviour reg studies 17 347 358 the paper looks at the effectiveness of regional financial assistance from the perspective of the companies receiving such assistance it notes that very little attention has been given to company behaviour and perception as opposed to macro economic analysis of regional policy the article is based on a survey of forty nine scottish manufacturing firms which had been offered regional selective assistance and sets out to examine 1 methods of investment analysis and the role of regional incentives in this process 2 to investigate what would have happened in the absence of such assistance and 3 to establish which type of financial incentive was most influential the results in the opinion of the authors do indicate that regional policy has a positive impact in providing investment and jobs in scotland which would not have otherwise occurred

the poverty impacts of improved cowpea varieties in nigeria a counterfactual analysis adoption of improved agricultural technologies has long been recognized as critical for reducing poverty through increased productivity incomes and asset accumulation using a nationally representative survey data from a sample of over 1500 households in nigeria this paper evaluates the impacts of adoption of improved cowpea varieties on income and asset poverty reduction using an endogenous switching regression model the results showed that adoption of improved cowpea varieties increased per capita household income and asset ownership by 17 and 24 percentage points respectively the results based on the observed and counterfactual income and asset distributions further showed that adoption reduced both income poverty and asset poverty by 5 percentage points the paper concludes with a discussion of the policy options for increasing adoption and impacts of improved cowpea varieties in nigeria

the employment impacts of an investment incentive differential efficiency of the industrial revenue bond krmenec a j 1990 the employment impacts of an investment incentive differential efficiency of the industrial revenue bond reg studies 24 95 107 capital subsidy programmes like the industrial revenue bond irb are presumed to be employment generators theoretically there is no reason to expect this demand for labour should increase only if the output effect of the subsidy outweighs the substitution effect evidence generated from a municipal user survey across northeastern illinois indicates that the irb is a weak employment generator rather the irb appears to act more as an employment stabilizer irb recipient firms exhibited less annual variation in employment change than nonrecipient firms estimated cross elasticities of the demand for labour do not exhibit significant variation sectorally or geographically programme targeting therefore may not substantially improve the effectiveness of this economic development instrument krmenec a j 1990 les effets d emploi d une incitation a

impacts of ffw on nutrition in rural kenya abstract assessing the impacts of food for work ffw on human capital formation depends on understanding the specific nutritional contributions of ffw to the overall diet of ffw participant households however empirical studies in this area are very scant this paper is an attempt to fill such gap the primary objectives are to measure the magnitude of the ffw contribution to participants nutritional status primary data collected from a random sample of 300 farm households in the rift valley province of kenya are used a linear programming model is used to estimate the shadow prices of nutrients these prices are then entered into an econometric model of consumer demand for nutrients in order to estimate own and cross price elasticities for each nutrient component the results indicate that ffw significantly improves the nutritional status of ffw participant households more specifically participants experienced an implicit income gain which resulted in a significant nutritional improvement the poorest ffw participant households exhibited even higher nutritional gains 32 46 than those participants from relatively higher income groups ffw participant households showed a 90 higher propensity to spend on nutrients than the non ffw participants the findings of this study are expected to assist in the design of future targeted food aid projects

soil erosion and smallholders conservation decisions in the highlands of ethiopia abstract soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental problems in ethiopia coupled with growing populations falling per capita food production and worsening poverty loss of productive land due to land degradation undermines rural livelihoods and national food security despite their awareness of the erosion problem peasants investments in land have been limited we use an applied nonseparable model to simulate conservation decisions pervasive market imperfections poverty and high rates of time preference seem to undermine erosion control investments lack of technologies which provide quick returns to subsistence constrained peasants also seem to deter such investments lower private incentives to internalize the intertemporal land degradation externality may require public intervention

factors affecting food poverty in ghana household production theory is applied to the ghana household budget survey data to 1 identify the main determinants of food poverty and 2 determine the net contribution of children to household food availability results suggest income fertility and maturity indices age sex and education significantly explain household calorie gaps hypothesis test results at one per cent and five per cent suggest the contribution of children to household food availability is less than their caloric intake estimated non linear equations permit the prediction and monitoring of the calorie gap for a given household or set of households with given household income and demographic features in a given location

determinants of food consumption in rural sierra leone abstract this paper reports the application of a quadratic expenditure system with demographic variables to the household consumption leisure choice component of a household firm model a system of seven commodities is estimated including five foods non food and leisure appropriate for such a level of disaggregation a demand system is used the quadratic expenditure system which allows for a flexible relationship between full income and commodity expenditures without sacrificing parsimony in parameters demographic data on households are explicitly incorporated into the model allowing for a richer specification than can be achieved by using per capita variables the data are from a cross section survey of households in rural sierra leone price variation exists by region permitting estimation of a complete demand system engel curves are found to be significantly non linear with marginal expenditure on rice the major staple declining with higher income most foods are found to be reasonably price responsive with sizeable own price substitution effects declining with higher income aggregate labor supply is found to be price inelastic

efficiency equity tradeoffs in targeting payments for ecosystem services this article develops an analytic framework to analyze the tradeoff between economic efficiency and distributional equity in targeting payments for ecosystem services pes it also proposes an empirical procedure to trace out the efficiency equity frontier where the program is pareto optimal in the sense that it cannot be improved upon to achieve either higher efficiency or distributional equity without compromising the other we apply the procedure to the conservation reserve program crp the largest pes program in u s history to analyze a whether it is possible to improve both the efficiency and the distributional equity of the program and b what the choice made by crp administrators implies about the political economic balance results reveal that a crp administrators forfeited about 9 of efficiency for an 18 23 improvement in distributional equity depending on the equity indicator used in the eighteenth signup of the crp b reducing the maximum allowable rental rate for all contracts would improve efficiency at the cost of distributional equity c reducing the maximum county enrollment cap would reduce efficiency without generating much improvement in distributional equity and d the crp targeting criterion could be redesigned to achieve both higher efficiency and higher distributional equity

welfare effects of maize technologies in marginal and high potential regions of kenya this paper describes the findings of a study that used a multi market model to assess the potential impact of improved maize technologies on the welfare of various types of rural and urban households in kenya the modelling results indicate that technologies developed for high potential regions are likely to have more profound aggregate impacts on maize production and lead to greater reductions in import demand if prices are controlled or maize prices if maize prices are flexible technology adoption in high potential regions is likely to have substantially greater positive impacts on aggregate real incomes but inferior income distributional outcomes compared to technology adoption in marginal regions

does food aid really have disincentive effects new evidence from sub saharan africa summary limited empirical evidence exists either to refute or confirm the pervasive belief that food aid has significant disincentive effects on recipient food production using household level data from rural ethiopia we demonstrate that while simple descriptive statistics appear consistent with the disincentive effects hypothesis once one controls properly for the endogeneity of food aid receipt no empirical support remains for the hypothesis that food aid creates disincentive effects among recipient households the macro economic evidence yields similar findings applying vector autoregression methods to national level data controlling for possible confounding variables we find that food aid has no disincentive effect on food production

poverty reduction effects of agricultural technology adoption a micro evidence from rural tanzania abstract this article evaluates the impact of adoption of improved pigeonpea technologies on consumption expenditure and poverty status using cross sectional data of 613 households from rural tanzania using multiple econometric techniques we found that adopting improved pigeonpea significantly increases consumption expenditure and reduces poverty this confirms the potential role of technology adoption in improving household welfare as higher incomes translate into lower poverty this study supports broader investment in agriculture research to address vital development challenges reaching the poor with better technologies however requires policy support for improving extension efforts access to seeds and market outlets that stimulate adoption

assessing the employment effectiveness of small business financing schemes some evidence from israel this paper presents an empirical assessment of the employment effects of two assistance schemes aimed at improving the accessibility of small businesses to capital the first scheme is a revolving loan fund operating in two small towns the second is a capital grant scheme aimed at promoting industrial activity in rural areas empirical data relating to the period 1986 89 is analysed for both schemes

price supply response of vegetable growers in the sultanate of oman abstract information on supply price elasticities has been acknowledged as being very important for decision makers at the macro and micro levels this paper presents an empirical investigation of vegetable growers responses to prices in oman it develops a single supply response function incorporating adaptive expectation model for prices results indicate that growers adjust relatively fast to changes in expected prices however these adjustments are rather low for some crop in the short and long run growers production decisions have also shown a significant response to prices of other products competing for farm space and other production resources these results will support efforts aimed at market development and crop enhancement programs

food policy conflicts in bangladesh abstract the objective of this paper is to show that the reality of a food policy aim of self sufficiency is very complex and full of internal inconsistencies in particular the author stresses the conflicts of interest between the consumers and producers of foodgrains in bangladesh which create obstacles to the success of their recently devised development goals he sets the scene by providing details of foodgrain production food availability per capita and levels of malnutrition and then introduces the policy conflicts in increasing food production the author then discusses several attempts to resolve the conflict through price control consumer subsidies and direct aid to producers through encouraging the use of fertilizers and irrigation this leads to the conclusion that government policy and outside aid must aim at both the production and the consumption of food in order for increased food supplies to reach those who need them most

the impact of prices and macroeconomic policies on agricultural supply a synthesis of available results abstract this paper reviews the literature dealing with the link of agricultural prices and macroeconomic policies to agricultural supply with particular emphasis on sub saharan africa although the study echoes the stylized facts on price elasticities underlined in previous literature reviews the paper points out that our understanding of the quantitative dimensions of agricultural supply response is weak given the importance of this assumed response for growth poverty alleviation and the environment indeed issues such as simultaneity of variables data pooling omission of variables and asymmetry in supply responses to price changes have not been adequately addressed in many instances

getting agricultural prices right abstract are agricultural price policies in developing countries inimical to both growth and equity in recent critiques of govenment policy such a view has been repeatedly affirmed this paper takes the view that a positive analysis of the constraints under which price and tax policies must be set is seriously lacking and that without such understanding both the direction and the consequences of reform must remain uncertain it attempts to lay the groundwork for such analysis by specifying a number of hypotheses concerning government policies and their consequences

accounting and the theory of the firm abstract this paper describes the background and objectives of a series of papers written fifty years ago at the london school of economics lse one objective was to encourage the use of accounting numbers in economic research a second objective was to improve the theory and practice of accounting understanding cost accounting and opportunity costs within a firm was tied to understanding the organization of firms the theory of the accounting system is part of the theory of the firm like a similar request made fifty years ago the paper concludes with a call for interdisciplinary studies between economics and accounting

role of agricultural research in poverty reduction lessons from the asian experience abstract the poor spend much of their income on food depend primarily on labour earnings and tend to reside in marginal agricultural areas to reduce poverty agricultural research should aim to ensure adequate food supplies by developing yield increasing technologies to increase labour demand by developing labour using technologies and to develop technologies suitable for marginal areas this article seeks to identify appropriate technologies that agricultural research should generate for poverty reduction the identification is based on a review of the experience of the green revolution in rice production in asia and an assessment of the changing structure of income sources among rural households in the philippines

the application and economic interpretation of selectivity models substantial differences in economic interpretations may be inferred from the estimated selectivity model results using the demand for frozen concentrated orange juice fcoj as an example the study suggests that the consumption patterns are quite similar between national brand and private label when the marginal effects and elasticities are evaluated based on actual observations rather than unobserved latent variables results show that private label fcoj is considered as a normal inferior good if the income effect is assessed based on actual potential purchases the estimated cents off elasticities for private label fcoj also vary substantially depending on which approach is used

simulating the impacts of credit policy and fertilizer subsidy on central luzon rice farms the philippines the effects of credit policy and fertilizer subsidy on farmers input choices production and income are examined with a multiseason decision making model stochastic production technology risk neutral and risk averse decision rules short term savings consumption behavior and a dual financial market are considered results indicate the risk neutral rule is more consistent with actual choices than risk averse rules estimated yields increased 21 to 30 from joint credit and fertilizer subsidies benefits are greater on irrigated than on rainfed farms a substantial default rate in the institutional market reduces credit program benefits

entrepreneurship and growth creative and equilibrating events this paper investigates the constraints on the growth of creative and equilibrating entrepreneurial events the empirical material is drawn from the greek economy it was observed that the two different levels of entrepreneurial events involve constraints of different kinds this paper analyses those constraints and their significance for entrepreneurial growth

supply response of u k milk producers short run own price response elasticities are estimated from two samples of panel data for specialist dairy farms in the northwest and southwest of england although these farms are subject to milk marketing quotas the free tradability of quotas enables them individually to adjust the output quite rapidly model specifications have been chosen to test the ability of panel data to directly reveal behavioral responses without the imposition of theoretical restrictions significantly the two independent samples generate quite similar results especially in terms of supply response measures stable and promising estimates are obtained with simultaneous models giving higher elasticities than single equation models

agricultural technology adoption and child nutrition enhancement improved maize varieties in rural ethiopia adoption of improved crop varieties can lead to multiple benefits to farm households including increased productivity incomes and food consumption however possible impacts of adoption on child nutrition outcomes are rarely explored in the literature this article helps bridge this gap through an impact assessment of the adoption of improved maize varieties imvs on child nutrition outcomes using a recent household survey from rural ethiopia the conceptual linkage between imv adoption and child nutrition is first established using an agricultural household model instrumental variable estimation suggests the overall impacts of adoption on child height for age and weight for age z scores to be positive and significant quantile instrumental variable regressions further reveal that such impacts are largest among children with poorest nutrition outcomes finally by combining a decomposition procedure with system of equations estimation it is found that the increase in own produced maize consumption is the major channel through which imv adoption affects child nutrition

sizing up social science research economists and especially agricultural economists have invested considerable amounts of time and intellectual effort in the question of measuring the benefits of and returns to scientific research and development extensive sets of estimation techniques have been developed and healthy and productive debates about estimated rates of return to science research and development r d and optimal science r d policies have been carried out by economists and agricultural economists in contrast a virtual methodological and empirical vacuum exists in the economics literature with respect to the benefits of and returns to social science research and more especially agricultural economics research this void poses a serious problem for agricultural economics research in the current public research policy environment policy makers and directors of research institutions are confronted with increasingly tight public budgets for r d part of their response has been to seek credible ex ante estimates of

rules versus discretion in food storage policies this article compares various policies in a rational expectations food storage model with risk averse consumers and missing insurance markets calibrated to represent a developing country i consider an optimal storage policy under discretion and two optimal simple rules a constant private storage subsidy and a price band the storage subsidy achieves welfare gains similar to the discretionary policy the price band maximizing social welfare is a price peg scheme the floor and ceiling prices are the same and the capacity constraint represents 11 of the steady state production level this price band achieves three quarters of the gains from the optimal policy under discretion

uncertainty duality and perversity an empirical test of the schultz baron hypothesis it has been suggested that supply curves may be negatively sloped under conditions of output price uncertainty and risk aversion if the effect of an increase in expected price is offset by the effect of an associated increase in uncertainty risk this hypothesis first articulated by schultz and given a more rigorous theoretical exposition by baron is tested using aggregate time series data to estimate a stochastic model of us agriculture based on a generalized leontief certainty equivalent profit function evidence of risk aversion and a positive correlation between mean output price and its variance are found however these factors are not strong enough to generate perversity thus the own price elasticity of supply of agricultural output is found to be positive with a value of 0 25 although no evidence of perversity is found the empirical results suggest that ignoring price uncertainty may bias estimates of aggregate supply response downwards by between 5 and 47 as well as testing the schultz

targeting poverty alleviation in priority setting for agricultural research abstract this paper provides a brief overview of research priority setting methods at various levels in national research systems noting the changing emphasis from supply to demand driven approaches at both macro and micro levels of priority setting the scope for incorporating a poverty dimension into priority setting is then reviewed within a general framework that recognises the complexity of the link between research investments and poverty alleviation the effectiveness of this targeting is likely to be very situation specific a case study of macro priority setting in pakistan shows the limited scope to target benefits to the poor through re allocation of research resources among commodities relative to a ranking based on the efficiency objective given present knowledge enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of research systems in promoting broad based technical change should be emphasised more than major efforts to target poverty directly this will involve a combination of supply and demand driven approaches to priority setting at different levels in the research system that will enhance both the efficiency and poverty alleviation impacts of research

estimation of dynamic maize supply response in zambia abstract increased attention on government pricing policies among african nations leads directly to a need for information about producer responses to price adjustments this is especially true in the case of zambian maize production maize is the most important crop grown in zambia it accounts for more than 80 of the value of marketed food crops is heavily relied on for subsistence consumption and is a staple food in the diet of all zambian citizens this paper analyzes the aggregate price response of maize supply in zambia using a dynamic regression analysis as a result short intermediate and long run multipliers elasticities are measured which can be used to analyze the effect of future price policy changes it was found that a second order rational distributed lag model best fits the available data estimates of short run elasticities of supply for maize and fertilizer prices are 0 54 and 0 48 respectively the corresponding estimated long run elasticities are 1 57 and 1 44

an error corrected almost ideal demand system for major cereals in kenya despite significant progress in theory and empirical methods the analysis of food consumption patterns in developing countries particularly those in sub saharan africa ssa has received very limited attention an attempt is made in this article to estimate an error corrected almost ideal demand system for four major cereals consumed in kenya employing annual data from 1963 to 2005 this demand system performs well on both theoretical and empirical grounds the symmetry and homogeneity conditions are supported by the data and the le chatelier principle holds empirically all own price elasticities are negative and significant at 5 level and irrespective of the time horizon maize wheat rice and sorghum may be considered as necessities in kenya while the expenditure elasticities of all four cereals are positive they are inelastic both in the short run and in the long run finally wheat and rice complement maize consumption in kenya while sorghum acts as a substitute since cereal consumers have price and income inelastic responses a combination of income and price oriented policies could improve cereal consumption in kenya

income diversification poverty traps and policy shocks in cote d ivoire and kenya abstract this paper presents evidence on the effects of two different sorts of policy shocks on observed income diversification patterns in rural africa in cote d ivoire households with poor endowments were less able to respond to attractive emerging on farm and non farm opportunities due to entry barriers to superior livelihood strategies the benefits of exchange rate reform accrued disproportionately to households that were richer prior to devaluation by contrast food for work transfers to households in kenya significantly reduced liquidity constraints enabling project participants to pursue more lucrative livelihood strategies in non farm activities and higher return agricultural production patterns jointly these two shocks underscore the importance of liquidity market access and skill constraints to skilled non farm income sources to dynamic poverty traps in rural africa

a model of an agricultural household in a multi crop economy the case of korea it is the purpose of this paper to describe one method of extending the empirical applicability of the theory of the farm household to multi crop economies by integrating the econometric and linear programming models already available in the literature section i introduces the subject in section ii the theoretical model is presented in section iii korean data are used to assess the quantitative significance of the approach by calculating and comparing household response to changes in input and output prices for two different specifications of the models first the household is analyzed from the consumption side on the assumption that farm profits are exogenous this corresponds to the standard approach in consumer demand theory and second results are presented for a model in which consumption and production responses are integrated in a theoretically consistent fashion and farm profits are allowed to reflect production responses to price changes the results from this and other studies that use an integrated approach to production and consumption decisions highlight the need to change perceptions concerning agricultural household response to economic incentives in developing countries and to revise the design of economic projects and policies accordingly