common property rights as an endogenous response to risk in recent years considerable progress has been made in improving our understanding of rural institutions including property rights e g binswanger and rosenzweig on close inspection property rights often turn out to be multidimensional and complex bailey migot adholla et al despite the widely acknowledged advantages of private property rights regimes numerous authors have demonstrated the resiliency and surprising pervasiveness of common property rights bromley and chavas ciracy wantrup and bishop ostrom although variations in weather in general and rainfall in particular have often been recognized as important sources of production risk and thereby as important determinants of property rights almost all the attention has been directed to intertemporal variability virtually neglected have been the local spatial variability of rainfall and hence such important issues as a the extent to which the production risks of rural production covary from one local community to another b the behavioral and institutional adaptations to such environmental conditions and c implications for public policy several factors would seem to have contributed to the neglect of such issues a in the more heavily studied temperate and relatively humid zones of the world the local variability of rainfall is relatively small huff and shipp hutchison jackson johnson and dart mcconkey nicholaichuk and cutforth b there is a dearth of data from a multiplicity of weather stations in arid r gions c intertemporal variations of rainfall have been of greater interest than interregional ones and d because drought induced agricultural production shortfalls are generally associated with price increases price risk tends to offset production risk thereby lowering the overall importance of weather related risk for farm incomes however there is strong evidence from various arid and semiarid regions asars of the world that the local variability of rainfall is considerably greater than in the more temperate and humid areas thompson and wilson sharon 1972 1974 1979 1981 giovinetto 1972 1974 jackson such studies also show a that studies based on annual rainfall greatly understate the magnitude and impact of such variability over the relevant productive season of the year b that intertemporal and local variability tend to be rather highly correlated and c that in the more arid of asars rainfall may be insufficient for agriculture implying that only animal husbandry might be viable in such situations price changes are unlikely to offset production changes indeed in drought conditions animal herders are often forced to sell off their animals at low and falling prices distress sales implying that production and price risk are likely to compound rather than offset each other therefore income risk is bound to be considerably more important in the drier asars moreover with neither insurance nor credit markets accessible to asar residents for reasons identified by binswanger and rosenzweig the sharp terms of trade deterioration associated with drought often give rise to severe exchange entitlement failure and famine explaining why herders are especially prominent among those suffering from famine sen jeffrey nugent is a professor of economics at the university of southern california los angeles nicolas sanchez is an associate professor of economics college of the holy cross worcester massachusetts

modifying the mean variance approach to avoid violations of stochastic dominance the mean variance approach is an influential theory of decision under risk proposed by markowitz markowitz h 1952 portfolio selection j finance7 1 77 91 the mean variance approach implies violations of first order stochastic dominance not commonly observed in the data this paper proposes a new model in the spirit of the classical mean variance approach without violations of stochastic dominance the proposed model represents preferences by a functional u l r l where u l denotes the expected utility of lottery l 1 1 is a subjective constant and r l is the mean absolute utility semideviation of lottery l the model comprises a linear trade off between expected utility and utility dispersion the model can accommodate several behavioral regularities such as the allais paradox and switching behavior in samuelson s example

general linear formulations of stochastic dominance criteria abstract we develop and implement linear formulations of general n th order stochastic dominance criteria for discrete probability distributions our approach is based on a piece wise polynomial representation of utility and its derivatives and can be implemented by solving a relatively small system of linear inequalities this approach allows for comparing a given prospect with a discrete set of alternative prospects as well as for comparison with a polyhedral set of linear combinations of prospects we also derive a linear dual formulation in terms of lower partial moments and co lower partial moments an empirical application to historical stock market data suggests that the passive stock market portfolio is highly inefficient relative to actively managed portfolios for all investment horizons and for nearly all investors the results also illustrate that the mean variance rule and second order stochastic dominance rule may not detect market portfolio inefficiency because of non trivial violations of non satiation and prudence

share contracts and their rationale lessons from marine fishing most of the existing literature on share contracts is based explicitly or implicitly on agriculture a sector in which share contracts are seldom dominant and apparently on the decline moreover since agricultural activities have some rather special characteristics the purpose of the present article is to analyse contractual choice and especially the choice of share contracts in a sector in which share contracts are dominant namely fishing in the process of explaining the dominance of share contracts in fishing the article also explains a some heretofore neglected features of these share contracts such as the way in which shares are calculated and the treatment of repair and maintenance expenditures b the nature and extent of interlinked transactions c the exceptional cases where share contracts are not used and d the relevance of varying environmental conditions and especially those of poor developing countries to the nature of contracts in fishing and to the differences therein between

the environmental kuznets curve and flow versus stock pollution the neglect of future damages in this paper we offer a possible explanation for the empirical finding that the pollution income relationship pir for flow pollutants is an environmental kuznets curve ekc i e inverted u shaped but that the pir for stock pollutants is monotonically rising we analyse an overlapping generations model with two pollutants the flow pollutant causes immediate damages but the stock pollutant harms the environment only in the future hence a succession of myopic governments lets stock pollution grow with income in contrast the flow pollutant follows an ekc whose downturn might be caused by the neglect of future damages and by ever rising stock pollution without the stock pollutant the pir for the flow pollutant can increase monotonically we also show that the turning point of the ekc for the flow pollutant lies at lower levels of income and of flow pollution if stock pollution is high and harmful this casts doubts on most empirical ekc studies because they assume that the turning point occurs at the same income level in all countries however it is consistent with recent empirical findings that the income level at the turning point of the ekc varies across countries

environment technology and the social articulation of risk in west african agriculture two preoccupations are not mutually exclusive superficially they share the common concern that liberalization is insufficient to resolve the subsaharan food crisis at a deeper level the two preoccupations are more intimately interrelated via the correspondence that links initial wealth to risk exposure and to behavior in both production and asset accumulation a number of recent empirical studies of risk in low income countries find that households are able to employ their accumulated assets to smooth consumption in the face of adverse agricultural production shocks 3 missing from these studies is explicit attention to the fact that the effective risk from which households insulate consumption is not that of production shocks directly but of those shocks as socially articulated by institutions and property rights this article explores the creation and distribution of effective risk estimating how environment technology and social factors interact to construct it endogenously 4 put differently this article develops the notion that the risk from which households ex post try to insulate consumption is not an immutable natural or technical feature of the landscape as michael watt s contrast between precolonial and colonial nigeria forcefully demonstrates the effective risk presented by an unchanged set of environmental and technical circumstances can

tournaments and sharecropping this paper explores the incentive effects of a renewal clause in a lease the basis of selection is rank order performance the authors findings in the context of a principal agent model are as follows in order to extract greater effort from tenants i e agents the landlord the principal must commit to a reward scheme that provides a part of the second period income to the winner on the basis of past performance this payment provides insurance and creates incentives for agents to work harder in the current period it also makes the contract efficient ex post and renegotiation proof copyright 1996 by the london school of economics and political science

safety first criteria and their measures of risk a cardinal measure of risk which represents the safety first criteria is defined the functional form of that measure is determined for a subgroup of risk averse agents that do not have money illusion an empirical illustration of possible applications of that measure shows a method of identifying the subgroup of agents for which a given alternative dominates the others in a group of risky alternatives when none of these alternatives dominates any of the others according to the first and the second criteria of stochastic dominance

do individual preferences explain the environmental kuznets curve abstract some economists maintain the optimistic view that individual preferences of rich people eventually lead to a virtuous circle relationship between rising income and environmental degradation in this article i review some of the models that establish a relationship between individual preferences and environmental quality these models provide a basis for discussion of the key role played by two factors individual preferences and technology they do not however capture the distributive conflicts that occur between different social groups in the process of defining environmental policy neither do they provide a good basis for distinguishing between environmental costs caused by the decisions of particular consumers and those which affect the same consumers this point is related to the various manners in which environmental costs are displaced displacement often occurs within a country for current costs and is even clearer and more relevant when costs are transferred across a great distance or to a remote future in such cases there are few incentives to reduce consumption or alter its composition displacement moreover can become a strategy pursued more or less consciously for maintaining high and rising levels of consumption without dealing with the associated environmental costs

on environmental kuznets curves arising from stock externalities abstract we develop a stock externality model in an optimal growth framework and examine the relationship between economic growth and the environment we find that as incomes rise over the growth path both the marginal benefits of pollution control and the marginal costs of pollution control rise if at a given income level the marginal benefits rise more than the marginal costs the emissions income relationship has a negative slope at that income level and vice versa we are thus able to generate examples of emissions income relationships of varying shapes by varying pollution specific parameters which determine marginal costs and benefits such as the convexity of the cost function the rate of decay of the stock of pollution and the share of consumption in the composite good an inverted u shape relationship an environmental kuznets curve requires only minimal assumptions a convex cost function and that environmental quality is a normal good imply an inverted u shape relationship for an open set of parameters we also examine how environment income relationship varies according to what measure is used for the environment emissions stock of pollution or emissions control

risk and insurance in a rural credit market an empirical investigation in northern nigeria credit contracts play a direct role in pooling risk between households in northern nigeria repayments owed by borrowers depend on realizations of random shocks by both borrowers and lenders the paper develops two models of state contingent loans the first is a competitive equilibrium in perfectly enforceable contracts the second permits imperfect information and equilibrium default estimates of both models indicate that quantitatively important state contingent payments are embedded in these loan transactions but that a fully efficient risk pooling equilibrium is not achieved the research is based on a year long survey in zaria nigeria conducted by the author

a theoretical basis for the environmental kuznets curve abstract this paper attempts to explain the environmental kuznets curve ekc or inverted u shaped relationship between income and environmental degradation in the framework of endogenous growth model considering a closed economy one part of capital is used for commodity production which generates pollution that degrades existing environment and the remaining part is used for abating pollution i e upgrading environment sufficient abatement activity improves restores environmental quality a sufficient abatement activity associated with commodity production could only lead optimally towards steady state the ratio of allocation of capital between two sectors production and abatement is fixed along the optimal path but it varies along the non optimal path that exists in the off steady state in the economy allocation of capital for abatement activity varies over time thus a change from insufficient to sufficient allocation of capital i e investment for abatement activity is the basis for an inverted u shaped relationship between environmental quality and economic growth

a theory of disappointment aversion an axiomatic model of preferences over lotteries is developed it is shown that this model is consistent with the allais paradox includes expected utility theory as a special case and is only one parameter beta richer than the expected utility model allais paradox type behavior is identified with positive values of beta preferences with positive beta are said to be disappointment averse it is shown that risk aversion implies disappointment aversion and that the arrow pratt measures of risk aversion can be generalized in a straight forward manner to the current framework copyright 1991 by the econometric society

risk management in gathering economies abstract this article extends the literature on the interplay of environmental risk and welfare into the setting of coastal fisheries gathering it reviews the sources of covariate and idiosyncratic production risk creating income shocks to gatherers and discusses the institutions that best mediate shocks across different settings we rely upon a principal agent framework between larva gathering agents employed by boat owning principals who supply seed to shrimp farms two datasets from a central american fishery are used to test the hypotheses concerning contractual performance across environments which contract provides the highest mean income and variation depends upon the underlying production catch data in the farm production records dataset with strong catch trends a simplified relative payments contract would perform better in reducing income risk in locations of stronger covariate shocks but at the price of significantly lower mean earnings for gatherers in areas of idiosyncratic shocks su

developments in the throughput income relationship theoretical and empirical observations abstract it has been suggested that the relationship between income and the associated environmental pressure in terms of derived materials inputs and pollution levels may take an inverted u shape indicating a delinking of environmental pressure from economic growth in relation to rising per capita incomes the likelihood of such a relationship being persistent is discussed in the context of a simple macro model of industrial metabolism and the possibility of relinking clearly emerges data on specific indicators of environmental pressure i e the throughput of materials energy and the volume of transport in 19 countries have been used to investigate patterns of delinking the results suggest that delinking may not be persistent already some advanced economies may be entering a new period of relinking the relationships between environmental pressure and welfare in the medium long term may be n shaped rather than inverted u shaped

the troika paradox in three binary choice problems people reveal a choice pattern which falsifies expected utility theory and many generalized non expected utility theories this new paradox challenges popular non expected utility models analogously to how the allais paradox challenged neoclassical expected utility theory

wealth weather risk and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments despite the growing evidence that farmers in low income environments are risk averse there has been little empirical evidence on the importance of risk in shaping the actual allocation of production resources among farmers differentiated by wealth the authors use panel data on investments in rural india to examine how the composition of productive and nonproductive asset holdings varies across farmers with different levels of total wealth and across farmers facing different degrees of weather risk income variability is a prominent feature of the experience of rural agents in low income countries the authors report evidence based on measures of rainfall variability that the agricultural investment portfolio behavior of farmers in such settings reflects risk aversion due evidently to limitations on consumption soothing mechanisms such as crop insurance or credit markets the authors results suggest that uninsured weather risk is a significant cause of lower efficiency and lower average incomes a one standard deviation decrease in weather risk measured by the standard deviation of the timing of the rainy season would raise average profits by up to 35 percent among farmers in the lowest wealth quartile moreover rainfall variability induces a more unequal distribution of average incomes for a given distribution of wealth wealthier farmers are willing to absorb significant risk without giving up profits to reduce production risk smaller farmers have to invest their limited wealth in ways that reduce their exposure to risk at the cost of lower profit rates the authors found that at high levels of rainfall variability differences in rates of profit per unit of agricultural assets were similar across classes of wealth but over the sample range of rainfall variability these rates of profit were always higher for the poorer farmers than for the wealthier ones suggesting that the disadvantages of small farmers in risk diffusion are more than offset by their labor cost advantage

are there limits to growth a simple theoretical model of pollution is developed that generates an inverted u shape relationship between per capita income and environmental quality this model is then used to study long run growth the same inverted u shape is shown to appear in time series and the prospects for sustained growth are shown to hinge on whether increasingly strict environmental regulation is compatible with a constant rate of return on capital implementation is also studied tax and voucher schemes are shown to have an advantage over direct regulation because they provide the correct incentives for capital accumulation copyright 1998 by economics department of the university of pennsylvania and the osaka university institute of social and economic research association

on risk transactions and economic development in the semiarid tropics recent interest in the institutions and production relations of tropical agriculture seem to hold promise for increased collaboration between economists and anthropologists in efforts to explain existing patterns of production and socioeconomic interaction this focus on customs and on the more formal institutional arrangements is encouraging given the continuing concern for food production in much of the semiarid tropics two recent papers are particularly germane to this growing literature h p binswanger and m r rosenzweig have offered a foundation for addressing the production relations in agriculture with a general focus on conditions in south asia more recently binswanger and j mcintire provide an explanation for the major institutions and customary features of production relations in three agroclimatic subzones of the land abundant tropics that have simple technology and high transport costs 2 they also offer predictions of how these institutions and features might change in response to the opening up of subsistence economies and to population growth our approach here is consistent with this recent work in several respects first it is explanatory in that we offer possible explanations for observed behavior in the land abundant tropics where agriculture is a mixture of cropping and livestock management second it is predictive in that we draw on economic theory to hypothesize likely changes in behavior in the face of institutional change finally it is offered in the interest of stimulating a concern for the institutional preconditions of economic development by such preconditions we have in mind the institutional arrangements that can stimulate the economic development process in particular we focus on the role of transactions in the economy we do not believe that there is anything intrinsically undesirable about transactions that are restricted to a circle of family and acquaintances on the contrary such transactions play an important

economic models for the environmental kuznets curve a survey abstract the environmental kuznets curve ekc refers to an inverted u shaped relationship between some pollutant level and per capita income i e the environmental quality deteriorates at early stages of economic growth and subsequently improves at a later stage since the early 1990s a considerable number of empirical studies have been conducted on the ekc and although there is no conclusive proof it has been recognized that the ekc emerges as an empirical regularity however some recent studies cast doubt on the concept and methodology of empirical results and evidence of the existence of the ekc has been questioned in fact how economic growth affects the environmental quality i e the shape of the ekc is still controversial in order to identify the actual relationship between the environmental quality and economic growth it is essential to develop economic models from various points of view this paper overviews the current stage of theoretical models that explain such relationship

sustainable growth and the environmental kuznets curve abstract this paper develops an endogenous growth model with pollution and both human and physical capital human capital is produced cleanly and physical capital can be used for pollution control economic growth is sustainable in the long run it is optimal for human capital to grow more rapidly than physical capital output and consumption while pollution declines for realistic parameter values our results differ sharply from stokey s result for an ak technology that sustained economic growth is not optimal the model can generate an environmental kuznets curve a pollution tax or a voucher system can implement the pareto efficiency solution

can the kuznets effect be relied on to induce equalizing growth abstract the use of internationally comparable income data to test kuznet s inverted u hypothesis introduces several econometric problems this study a explains and corrects for these econometric problems b assesses the sensitivity of estimated results to alternative functional specifications and sample variations c provides a more rigorous test for structural change between more and less developed countries in the phasing of the inequality trend and d estimates the time likely to elapse before various of the developing countries reach the turning point the study s findings offer broad support for kuznets s hypothesis but do not support the advocacy of development policies focused exclusively on growth for low income countries growth s equalizing phase cannot be anticipated to set in for half a century

understanding preference imprecision the term preference imprecision seems to have different meanings to different people in the literature one can find references to a number of expressions for example vagueness incompleteness randomness unsureness indecisiveness and thick indifference curves some of these are theoretical constructs some are empirical the purpose of this paper is to survey the various different approaches and to try to link them together to see if they are all addressed to the same issue and to come to some conclusions in the course of this survey we report on evidence concerning the existence of preference imprecision and its impact on theoretical and empirical work

income distribution and development some stylized facts in recent years the relationship between income distribution and the process of development has come under increasing scrutiny much of the debate has focused on the hypothesis originally advanced by simon kuznets that the secular behavior of inequality follows an inverted u shaped pattern with inequality first increasing and then decreasing with development this hypothesis has become so much a part of the conventional wisdom on this subject that it has generated considerable skepticism about the welfare implications of the development process indeed on some interpretations developing countries face the grim prospect not just of increasing relative inequality but also of declining absolute incomes for the lower income groups

nonlinear preferences and two stage lotteries theories and evidence nonlinear preferences models are theories for choice under risk which have weakened in one way or another the independence axiom of expected utility in this paper we present an experiment designed to discriminate between some basic ideas in this literature we tested the betweenness axiom a weaker form of independence against an alternative which predicts that indifference curves in the probabilities simplex are convex along the lower edge and concave along the hypotenuse we also checked whether preferences among single stage lotteries as those revealed by our test of betweenness should be extended to preferences among two stage lottery via the classical reduction of compound lottery axiom or via the certainty equivalent mechanism copyright 1994 by royal economic society

corruption pollution and the kuznets environment curve abstract this paper examines the implications of corruption and rent seeking behavior by the government for the relationship between pollution and growth cases of both cooperative and non cooperative interaction between the government and the private firm are studied it is shown that corruption is not likely to preclude the existence of an inverted u shaped kuznets environmental curve under both these cases however for any level of per capita income the pollution levels corresponding to corrupt behavior are always above the socially optimal level further the turning point of the kuznets curve takes place at income and pollution levels above those corresponding to the social optimum

economic growth and transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy resources abstract we study transitions between nonrenewable and renewable energy forms at different development stages of an economy it is shown that in the historical context the emphasis on energy production may evolve from renewables to nonrenewables and back to renewables typically both energy forms are used simultaneously along the equilibrium path nonrenewable resource consumption may increase and their price decrease an inverted u relation between carbon emissions and income level may follow even without environmental policy