comments on credit ratings and the bis capital adequacy reform agenda the new basel capital accord basel committee on banking supervision 1999 has the objective of making capital requirements appropriately sensitive to the degree of risk in bank activities this is important because the original capital accord 1998 has been widely criticized for the lack of risk sensitivity of the capital charges assessed against various types of loans many observers believe this has resulted in regulatory arbitrage on the part of banks to the detriment of the quality of the assets banks hold on their books the basel committee has proposed a standardized approach for determining risk based capital using external ratings and two other approaches based on internal models for dealing with credit risk 1 altman et al 2002 examines in detail whether the goal of appropriate risk sensitivity is met by the proposed risk weights of the standardized approach the main conclusion of the altman et al paper and the underlying issues can be seen in fig 1 which plots the proposed risk weights and the historical corporate bond losses by rating as the authors note ratings aaa through a have experienced virtually no defaults but are assigned weights of 20 aaa and aa and 50 a percent more problematic the proposed risk weights for baa and ba rated loans are both 100 even though the loss experience for ba is 10 times higher than for baa finally the b and below rated loans have risk weights only half again as large as baa rated loans while the historical loss experience has been 55 times greater thus the basel proposal fails to capture the relative risks of the various ratings altman et al journal of banking finance 26 2002 923 928

supply response and the dispersion of price expectations nomic an0lysis is the implication of aggregation when doing market studies the conditions for exact aggregation under a variety of definitions and settings have been studied paris and rausser theil the focus of this paper is on supply response in agriculture several authors have studied the effects of and tests for differential supply response coefficients across individuals or areas when aggregating firms e g theil p 567 here these coefficients are assumed to be identical for every firm but another problem is examined when uncertainty is present it is well documented that farmers have diverse price expectations e g bessler the question occurs as to the effects of such different expectations on aggregate supply response it is found that the curvature of the supply function is a crucial component of the analysis for example if the supply function is strictly concave an increase in the dispersion of expectations will reduce supply in aggregate

farm policies and added sugars in us diets abstract we examine how us farm policies for sweetener crops have affected the consumption and composition of sweeteners in the us diet r d expenditures have lowered the unit cost of commodities used in sweeteners but have generated more technical progress in corn than in sugar crops increasing use of corn in food production ceteris paribus commodity programs have raised the price of sugar and decreased the price of corn thus high fructose corn syrup hfcs became an inexpensive substitute for sugar in food from 1970 on however the effect of policy on ingredient prices has become less important over time today the farm value share in sweetened food is below 5 and hfcs is a specialized input in many food items with limited substitution possibilities the current link between us sweetener consumption and farm policy is weak recent evidence from other high income countries shows little relationship between sweetener consumption and sugar policies

washington biofuel feedstock crop supply under output price and quantity uncertainty abstract subsidized development of an in state biofuels industry has received some political support in the state of washington usa utilizing in state feedstock supplies could be an efficient way to stimulate biofuel industries and the local economy in this paper we estimate supply under output price and quantity uncertainty for major biofuel feedstock crops in washington farmers are expected to be risk averse and maximize the utility of profit and uncertainty we estimate very large washington price elasticities for corn and sugar beets but a small price elasticity for a third potential feedstock canola even with the large price elasticities for two potential feedstocks their current and historical production levels in the state are so low that unrealistically large incentives would likely be needed to obtain sufficient feedstock supply for a washington biofuel industry based on our examination of state and regional data we find low likelihood that a washington biofuels industry will develop in the near future primarily using within state biofuel feedstock crops

estimating labor supply and production decisions of self employed farm producers abstract this paper proposes a model oriented towards integrating farm households production and consumption decisions into a unified theoretical and econometric framework it is argued that in contrast with other forms of economic organization farm households utility and profit maximization decisions are not likely to be independent econometric estimation of a farm household model using canadian data suggests that utility and profit maximizing decisions are not indeed independent and moreover that there are significant gains in explanatory power and efficiency by estimating the consumption and production equations jointly

supply and demand functions for multiproduct u s cash grain farms biases caused by research and other policies this study presents new estimates of supply and demand elasticities for u s multiproduct cash grain farms and estimates of input and output bias effects caused by public and private crop research extension and farmers schooling the study also shows that the social rate of return to public crop research is large about 62 percent

evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis abstract neoclassical economic theory provides an important conceptual framework for the analysis of agricultural production theory provides little guidance however in the actual specification of empirical models this paper applies an integrated approach for choosing between price expectation mechanisms in a multiple equation model when the alternatives are non nested nine alternative specifications of market price and policy information are developed price forecasting accuracy non nested tests of hypotheses and out of sample predictive accuracy are examined for agricultural production in iowa the results call into question the reliability of using forecasting accuracy as the sole guide to selecting a price expectation proxy

dynamic input demand functions and resource adjustment for us agriculture state evidence abstract the paper presents an econometric model of dynamic agricultural input demand functions that include research based technical change and autoregressive disturbances and fits the model to annual data for a set of state aggregates pooled over 1950 1982 the methodological approach is one of developing a theoretical foundation for a dynamic input demand system and accepting state aggreage behavior as approximated by nonlinear adjustment costs and long term profit maximization although other studies have largely ignored autocorrelation in dynamic input demand systems the results show shorter adjustment lags with autocorrelation than without dynamic input demand own price elasticities for the six input groups are inelastic and the demand functions possess significant cross price and research effects

aggregation without separability tests of the united states and mexican agricultural production data the generalized composite commodity theorem gcct and testing procedure is extended to test for consistent aggregation of the united states and mexican agricultural production data in each category for which earlier tests rejected homothetic separability nonrejected gcct and separability hypotheses provide empirical support for aggregating all the united states agricultural outputs into as few as two categories crops and livestock mexican agricultural outputs also can be aggregated into as few as two categories support for aggregating all outputs into a single category is ambiguous in both countries and is only provided by the gcct

intellectual property rights and the welfare effects of agricultural r d the profound changes that have affected agriculture in modern times are perhaps best illustrated by the evolution of production techniques due to mechanization new chemical inputs such as herbicides pesticides and fertilizers genetic selection of crops and animals new crop varieties and countless other technical and organizational improvements these innovations have allowed a generalized increase in physical output while at the same time agriculture has suffered a massive exodus of labor forces towards the non farm sectors indeed a stylized fact of developed countries post war growth is that productivity in agriculture has grown faster than in other sectors jorgenson and gollop 1992 this remarkable record naturally begs the question of what is at its root and a view that commands considerable consensus is that agricultural productivity growth is due to past investments in scientific research and development r d

measurement of total factor productivity growth and biases in technological change in western australian agriculture this study investigates productivity growth in broad acre agriculture in western australia tornqvist indices of three output groups crops sheep products and other and five input groups livestock materials and services labour capital and land are constructed and discussed indices of total output and total inputs are also derived and used to form an index of total factor productivity that is observed to grow at an average annual rage of 2 7 the input and output indices are also used in the estimation of output supply and input demand equations derived from a flexible profit function the generalized mcfadden functional form is used because it is possible to impose global curvature upon it without loss of flexibility asymptotic chi square tests reject the hypotheses of hicks neutral technical change in inputs and in outputs technical change is observed to be materials and services saving relative to the other input groups and also appears to favour wool and sheepmeat production relative to the other output groups

how reliable is duality theory in empirical work the neoclassical theory of production establishes a dual relationship between the profit value function of a competitive firm and its underlying production technology this relationship commonly referred to as duality theory has been widely used in empirical work to estimate production parameters such as elasticities and returns to scale we generate a pseudo dataset by monte carlo simulations which starting from known production parameters yield a dataset with the main characteristics of u s agriculture in terms of unobserved firm heterogeneity decisions under uncertainty unexpected production and price shocks endogenous prices output and input aggregation measurement error in variables and omitted variables production parameters are not precisely recovered when performing econometric estimation based on the duality approach and the elasticity estimates are inaccurate deviations of own and cross price elasticities from initial median values given our parameter calibration range between 6 and 690 with an average of 90 also own price elasticities are as imprecisely recovered as cross price elasticities sensitivity analysis shows that results still hold for different sources and levels of noise and sample size used in estimation

dynamic factor demand equations in u s and canadian agriculture abstract this research provides one of the first empirical estimates of a data based dynamic factor demand model for american and canadian agriculture models such as these deserve more widespread use in the empirical analysis of agriculture these models have the advantage that they do not impose inappropriate dynamics on the data rather they permit the data to select the appropriate dynamics we use a model originally developed by anderson and blundell this model is a general first order dynamic model which contains as testable hypothesis several simpler models this model permits us to estimate the long run agricultural production structure as a subset of the dynamic parameter estimates we will test this long run structure for symmetry homotheticity and neutral technical change the estimated models may be used to test for three alternative dynamic structures in the limit dynamics may not be needed and we can test for the static long run equilibrium model two intermediate cases are the autoregressive and the partial adjustment models which are simpler than the general model but still include dynamics our results suggest that the long run equilibrium model is unsatisfactory in both countries a dynamic model is needed in both countries the two more restricted dynamic models are rejected the general dynamic model is required in canada the long run equilibrium structure is homothetic with neutral technical change in the united states homotheticity is also accepted but neutral technical change is rejected

dynamic fertilizer nutrient demands for corn a cointegrated and error correcting system past studies of the demand for fertilizer have typically been based on static models which assume that adjustments toward equilibrium are instantaneous this article builds on past studies by developing a dynamic model of nutrient demands of corn unit root and cointegration tests demonstrate that fertilizer demands of corn are dynamic therefore statistically correct estimates can be obtained using a dynamic model a set of error correction models for nitrogen phosphate and potash use in corn production are estimated results provide strong statistical evidence that nutrient demands of corn are price inelastic both in the short and the long run

research and extension expenditures and productivity in japanese agriculture 1960 1990 abstract this paper investigates the cause for the decline in the growth of productivity in japanese agriculture since the late 1960s for this objective it investigates the effects of research and extension r e activities on the extent and the direction of the bias of technological change in japanese agriculture for the period 1960 1990 based on the translog cost function framework empirical results show that the cost reducing effects of r e measured in terms of the absolute value of the cost r e elasticity increased slightly from 0 194 in 1960 to 0 205 in 1965 and then decreased consistently to 0 110 in 1990 this finding is broadly consistent with the finding of the decline or slowdown in agricultural productivity since the late 1960s the bias due to r e was found to be toward labor intermediate inputs and other inputs saving on the one hand and machinery and land using on the other labor saving and machinery using biases are consistent with the hicksian induced innovation hypothesis

reflections on agricultural r d productivity and the data constraint unfinished business unsettled issues sixty years ago t w schultz introduced the idea of the productivity residual to agricultural economics 1956 schultz s main message was that growth in conventional inputs accounted for little of the observed growth in agricultural output and that there was work to be done by agricultural economists to understand and ultimately eliminate this unexplained residual called productivity thus was launched the economics of agricultural productivity as a sub field within agricultural economics along with the economics of agricultural r d and innovation and related government policy much progress has been made in the decades since still critical issues remain unresolved this matters because agricultural innovation and productivity matter and so do the related policies that rest to some extent on our established understanding of the economic relationships in this paper i review some unsettled issues related to economic models and measures applied to agricultural r d and productivity and some unfinished business in terms of economic and policy questions that are not yet well answered before doing that i present some evidence on agricultural productivity and why it matters next with a nod to factology i present available productivity measures from the u s department of agriculture usda and international science and technology practice and policy instepp center and compare them in the context of translog cost function models in subsequent sections i use these and other data to develop new evidence related to two contentious questions a do farmers benefit from public agricultural r d b has u s agricultural productivity growth slowed in recent decades the answers are revealed within

supply demand and technology in a multiproduct industry texas field crops the purpose of this paper is to examine the structure of agricultural production for six texas field crops cotton grain sorghum wheat corn rice and hay which account for nearly 95 of recent field crop value specific objectives are to a test the structure of technology to determine i if output and input utilization choices for individual products are independent of production decisions about other outputs and ii if products and or inputs can be consistently aggregated b estimate a coherent set of interrelated supply functions for the six commodities and input demand functions for fertilizer and hired labor because the empirical focus of this paper is specific to one state the results will be of limited value for interpreting specific production relationships elsewhere however the problem is of common interest in production agriculture and the techniques used demonstrate an important application of dual modeling

productivity growth and the effects of r d in african agriculture this article measures and compares total factor productivity growth in african agriculture under contemporaneous and sequential technology frontiers over the period 1970 2004 the sources of productivity growth are examined using a fixed effects regression model and a polynomial distributed lag structure for agricultural r d expenditures while conventional estimates show an average productivity growth rate of only 0 3 per year the improved measures under sequential technology show that african agricultural productivity grew at a higher rate of 1 8 per year technical progress rather than efficiency change was the principal source of productivity growth agricultural r d weather and trade reforms turned out to have significant effects on productivity in african agriculture with a rate of return of 33 per year r d is shown to be a socially profitable investment in african agriculture while a strong r d expenditure growth of about 2 per year in the 1970s led to strong productivity growth after the mid 1980s stagnation of r d expenditure in the 1980s and early 1990s led to slower productivity growth in the 2000s consistent with recent economic recovery in africa evidenced by stronger agricultural gdp growth rates results showed that policy reforms as well as improved weather contributed to the recovery of agricultural productivity after the mid 1980s

output supply and input demand system of commercial and backyard poultry producers in indonesia indonesia s domestic broiler production has grown rapidly in part because of a ban on imports of poultry parts and strict inspection and meat certification requirements whether indonesia will continue to protect the domestic broiler sector and import feed grains and other inputs or whether it will directly import meat products is a relevant question to many stakeholders this study uses a normalized quadratic function to estimate the output supply of commercial and backyard broiler producers in indonesia and the input demand for three major inputs day old chicks feed and labor data come from three datasets a 1996 household survey and 1996 and 2000 surveys of commercial producers for the most recent dataset the own price elasticity in both the output supply and feed input demand equations were found to be significant the signs of the elasticities were theoretically consistent with a positive supply and negative demand elasticity the magnitudes of the elasticities were smaller than expected the supply elasticity was 0 285 the inelastic supply explains the high border protection imposed by indonesia which in turn implies that any income driven expansion in the quantity of broiler product demanded would be quickly constrained by rising prices consequently supply from imports would become attractive and would dampen any incentive for growth in the domestic sector this result cast doubt on the long term sustainability of indonesia s import substitution policy regime

modeling the length and shape of the r d lag an application to uk agricultural productivity this article updates total factor productivity tfp growth in uk agriculture from 1953 2005 and shows that public and private research and returns to scale explain tfp cointegration and causality tests are used to investigate the validity of attempts to explain uk agricultural productivity with r d and related technology variables then the length and shape of the lag structures are modeled and compared with the structures that are commonly imposed on the data the rates of return ror to r d using the data determined lags differ considerably from those obtained by imposing lag shapes these comparisons show that the ror to public r d are sensitive to the lag shape as well as its length and that the omission of other technology variables such as mechanical and chemical patents pertaining to agriculture and farm size can bias the ror

research and productivity in mexican agriculture partial and total factor productivity tfp measures of mexican agriculture are calculated for 1960 90 the long run effects of research and international transfer of technology on tfp are examined over the 1940 90 period using cointegration procedures tfp increased at an average annual rate of 2 5 exceeding the corresponding growth in the united states 2 1 tfp grew particularly fast in the 1960s and 1970s a 1 rise in research investment increased tfp by 0 13 and a 1 increase in u s tfp translated into a 1 11 increase in mexican tfp the average annual rate of return to research investment is about 64

integrating sustainability in business model disclosure evidence from the uk mining industry abstract this article offers a methodological tool that assesses a company s commitment to sustainability by analysing its business model which is defined here as a description of processes through which organizations implement their competitive strategies and create value insofar as they are considered a key driver for long term profitability sustainability strategies should involve a company s value creation processes that is a company s business model this paper specifically examines the extent to which mining companies engage in sustainability by performing content analyses of their business model disclosures our empirical analysis focuses on the uk mining industry because this sector often struggles with a host of societal organizational and environmental issues and because uk mining companies are obliged to describe their business model in their strategic reports in order to determine whether and how companies implement sustainability strategies in their business model we perform a content analysis of the business model disclosures of 16 ftse all share index uk mining companies for a total of 1048 text units our results suggest that mining companies have opted for a selective and soft approach to sustainability although air energy water local community engagement environmental protection and labour conditions are often addressed in the business models of uk mining companies there is very little evidence to suggest that concrete initiatives were actually implemented in other areas in fact some topics are completely ignored raw materials almost completely ignored waste corruption and lobbying local employment or discussed in a predominantly descriptive manner human rights opportunity and equality recruitment and bargaining training the practical implications of this study are twofold first we offer a new means of investigating how companies engage in sustainability by performing content analyses of their business model disclosures secondly we offer a detailed discussion of how sustainability affects value creation processes in the uk mining industry

output response to prices and public investment in agriculture indonesian food crops abstract this paper analyzes dynamic food crop supply response in indonesia the effects of technology prices and investments on output growth for rice corn soybean and cassava are examined the analysis generates crop wise area yield and input demand parameters suitable for the evaluation of price and investment policies and shows the large impact of public investment in agricultural research extension and irrigation on long run output growth in indonesia elimination of the fertilizer subsidy and reinvestment of the resulting fiscal savings in research extension and irrigation would produce large benefits

multiple input multiple output production choices and technology in the u s wheat region duality theory motivates a translog expected profit function consistent with multiple products price uncertainty preseason climate constraints acreage control policies and possibly nonhomothetic technology although multiple outputs are allowed enterprise specific data is not necessary instead time series measures of output revenues and expected prices input expenses and prices and fixed input flows are employed appropriate measures of elasticities of choice returns to size and biases in technological change are derived results indicated decreasing returns to size rather limited though complementary responsiveness of choices to price changes and the nature of biases in technological changes

modelling technical change in italian agriculture a latent variable approach this paper presents an alternative approach to the measurement of technical change it is based on the latent variable level of technology that enters explicitly the input demand system and on a hypothesis about the innovation generating process by adding measurement error equations the behavioral system can be viewed as a multiple indicators multiple causes mimic model the parameter estimates are obtained with a maximum likelihood estimator which involves the implicit covariance matrix the analysis refers to italian agriculture and the results provide some evidence on the nature and level of technical change during the years 1961 1991

short and long run adjustments in dairy production a profit function analysis a dual profit model is developed to analyse the structure of dairy technology using farm level data for vermont potential short and long run effects of milk price reductions on output supply input demand farm size and profitability are studied the observed levels of the quasi fixed inputs family labour and herd size are found to be significantly lower than their optimal or long run equilibrium values which is consistent with a continuing shift towards fewer and larger dairy farms the analysis suggests that lower milk prices threaten the short run survival of small and medium size farms and reduce the optimal farm size in the long run

an analysis and critique of the bis proposal on capital adequacy and ratings abstract this paper examines two specific aspects of stage 1 of the bank for international settlement s bis s proposed reforms to the 8 risk based capital ratio we argue that relying on traditional agency ratings could produce cyclically lagging rather leading capital requirements resulting in an enhanced rather than reduced degree of instability in the banking and financial system despite this possible shortcoming we believe that sensible risk based weighting of capital requirements is a step in the right direction the current risk based bucketing proposal which is tied to external agency ratings or possibly to internal bank ratings however lacks a sufficient degree of granularity in particular lumping a and bbb investment grade corporate borrowers together with bb and b below investment grade borrowers severely misprices risk within that bucket and calls at a minimum for that bucket to be split into two we examine the default loss experience on corporate bonds for the period 1981 1999 and propose a revised weighting system which more closely resembles the actual loss experience on credit assets

the governance of corporate sustainability empirical insights into the development leadership and implementation of responsible business strategy this article explores how corporate governance processes and structures are being used in large australian companies to develop lead and implement corporate responsibility strategies it presents an empirical analysis of the governance of sustainability in fifty large listed companies based on each company s disclosures in annual and sustainability reports we find that significant progress is being made by large listed australian companies towards integrating sustainability into core business operations there is evidence of leadership structures being put in place to ensure that board and senior management are involved in sustainability strategy development and are then incentivised to monitor and ensure implementation of that strategy through financial rewards there is evidence of a willingness to engage and communicate clearly the results of these strategies to interested stakeholders overall there appears to be a developing acceptance amongst large corporations that efforts towards improved corporate sustainability are not only expected but are of value to the business we suggest that this is evidence of a managerial shift away from an orthodox shareholder primacy understanding of the corporation towards a more enlightened shareholder value approach often encompassing a stakeholder orientated view of business strategy however strong underlying tensions remain due to the insistent market emphasis on shareholder value

credit risk in private debt portfolios default loss severity and average loss rates for a large sample of privately placed bonds are presented and compared with loss experience for publicly issued bonds the chance of very large portfolio losses is estimated and some determinants of such losses are analyzed results show ex ante riskier classes of private debt perform better on average than public debt both diversification and the riskiness of individual portfolio assets influence the bad tail of the portfolio loss distribution private placements are similar to corporate loans in that both are monitored private debt the results are thus relevant to management and securitization of private debt portfolios generally more than half of nonfinancial corporate debt finance is iss ued privately and decisions of the financial intermediaries that invest in such debt depend importantly on its credit risk regulators of such institutions are similarly attentive to portfolio credit risk and it is an important consideration in the design of securitizations of pools of private debt in spite of its importance little is known empirically about private debt credit risk especially ex ante risk as a function of portfolio characteristics many studies have examined the loan portfolio performance of banks thrifts and insurance companies but the ex ante risk characteristics of the portfo

credit ratings and the bis capital adequacy reform agenda abstract in this paper we have revised and updated our earlier study in order to analyze the most recent second draft of the bis s proposed reforms of bank capital requirements we conduct monte carlo experiments using data on defaults and severity rates on publicly traded us corporate bonds over the 1981 1999 period analyzing the whole period and various sub periods it is clear that the most recent draft of the bis proposed reforms seriously overestimates the relative riskiness of high quality debt relative to low quality debt in the so called standardized model as a result the most recent proposal still contains inherent risk shifting taking incentives for banks

input demands and inefficiency in u s agriculture markov chain monte carlo mcmc methods are used to estimate a seemingly unrelated regression sur system of input demand functions for u s agriculture our demand functions have flexible forms and allow for nonrandom technical inefficiency concavity constraints are imposed at individual data points and the distributions of measures of relative technical efficiency are constrained to the unit interval results are evaluated in terms of characteristics of the posterior distributions of parameters measures of relative technical efficiency and other nonlinear functions of the parameters

how does the market value corporate sustainability performance this study provides empirical evidence on how corporate sustainability performance csp as proxied by membership of the dow jones sustainability index is reflected in the market value of equity using a theoretical framework combining institutional perspectives stakeholder theory and resource based perspectives we develop a set of hypotheses that relate the market value of equity to csp for a sample of north american firms our preliminary results show that csp has significant explanatory power for stock prices over the traditional summary accounting measures such as earnings and book value of equity however further analyses suggest that we should not focus on corporate sustainability itself our findings suggest that what investors really do is to penalize large profitable firms with low level of csp firms with incentives to develop a high level of csp not engaging on such strategy are thus penalized by the market

credit risk models and agricultural lending credit risk models are developed and used to estimate capital requirements for agricultural lenders under the new basel capital accord the study uses credit value at risk methods to calculate probability of default loss given default and expected and unexpected losses two applied models creditmetrics and moody s kmv are estimated using farm financial data the results show that the necessary capital for agricultural lenders under the new basel accord varies substantially depending on the riskiness and granularity of the portfolio

induced innovation in u s agriculture time series direct econometric and nonparametric tests the hypothesis of induced innovation is tested for u s agriculture using a high quality state level panel data set and three disparate testing techniques time series direct econometric and nonparametric we find little support for the hypothesis that conclusion is robust across testing techniques however as with all empirical tests of this hypothesis conducted to date ours focus only on the demand side of the hypothesis the hypothesis could have been rejected simply because the marginal cost of developing and implementing input saving technologies for the relatively expensive inputs is greater than for the relatively cheap inputs copyright 2009 oxford university press

convergence in u s productivity growth for agriculture implications of interstate research spillovers for funding agricultural research state crop livestock and aggregate agricultural total factor productivity tfp data 1950 82 are examined for evidence of convergence to a single tfp level convergence or to a steady state rate of growth or conditional convergence our empirical results do not support convergence but do support convergence the rate of convergence is variable and depends on research and development r d spillins from other states private r d and farmers schooling the finding of strong positive interstate spillover effects implies that independent state planning of agricultural research is inefficient and cooperation across states boundaries including establishment of new political jurisdictions for financing public agricultural research can enhance efficiency