on the impacts of oil price fluctuations on european equity markets volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness the objective of this paper is to investigate the volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets in europe as not all industries are expected to be equally affected by oil price changes we conduct our study at both the aggregate as well as sector levels empirically we make use of a recently developed var garch approach which allows for transmissions in volatilities in addition we analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil stock portfolio holdings based on our results on the whole our findings show significant volatility spillovers between oil price and sector stock returns and suggest that a better understanding of those links is crucial for portfolio management in the presence of oil price risk

on taxation in a two sector endogenous growth model with endogenous labor supply abstract this paper studies the effects of taxation on long run growth in a two sector endogenous growth model with i physical capital as an input in the education sector and ii leisure as an additional argument in the utility function income taxation the same rate applies for capital and labor income reduces the growth rate the same is true if only labor income is taxed however if only capital income is taxed the positive effect of an increase in total non leisure time may dominate the direct negative effect implying that capital taxation increases the long run growth rate

oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market evidence from south korea abstract how important are oil price fluctuations and oil price volatility on equity market performance what are the policy implications if volatility turns out to be significant we assess this issue in an economics finance nexus for korea using a vec model including interest rates economic activity real stock returns real oil prices and oil price volatility our main aim is to capture the effects of crude oil prices on the korean economy thoroughly covering the period of the asian financial crisis of 1997 which heavily affected the country and the oil price hikes in the early 1990s after the gulf war south korea was the country most hit by the financial crisis together with indonesia and thailand results indicate the dominance of oil price volatility on real stock returns and emphasize how this has increased over time oil price volatility can have profound effect on the time horizon of investment and firms need adjust their risk management procedures accordingly this increase in dependency has been found in other net oil importing emerging equity markets we test the relationship between oil price movements and economic activity by using modern time series techniques in a cointegrating framework we expand the standard error correction model by examining the dynamics of out of sample causality through the generalized variance decomposition and impulse response function techniques the evidence from persistence profiles also gives important guidelines based on how fast the entire system adjusts back to equilibrium in addition we find the cointegrating relationship to be stable and find that the linear error correction model to be more favorable than an asymmetric 2 period markov switching model

on the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths abstract in neoclassical optimal growth models the stability of the accumulation paths depends on the discount parameter we prove that for discount factors small enough the policy function which describes an optimal path can be of any type the result is achieved using the notion of concavity we adopt a constructive approach given any twice differentiable map we show how to construct an optimal growth problem which produces that map as the optimal policy function a consequence is that chaos can appear in these models we also provide bounds on the values of the discount parameter for which indeterminacy is possible

crude oil corn ethanol nexus a contextual approach this paper offers a holistic study on the complex relationships between crude oil corn and ethanol during a turbulent period between 2006 and end of 2011 through a holistic mapping of the current market situation and a contextual analytical design we show that there exists a strong relationship between crude oil and corn markets on one side and crude oil and ethanol on the other however the price relationship between corn and ethanol was revealed to be less straightforward and is driven by the us government fuel policy furthermore the study indicates that corn markets have became more prone to volatility due to ethanol production especially when the demand for corn is high and or the crude oil prices are high enough to create a competitive market for ethanol

the performance of composite forecast models of value at risk in the energy market this paper examines a comparative evaluation of the predictive performance of various value at risk var models in the energy market this study extends the conventional research in literature by proposing composite forecast models for applying to brent and wti crude oil prices forecasting techniques considered here include the ewma stable density kernel density hull and white garch gpd plus composite forecasts from linearly combining two or more of the competing models above findings show hull and white to be the most powerful approach for capturing downside risk in the energy market reasonable results are also available from carefully combining var forecasts

industrial energy substitution during the 1980s in the greek economy abstract factor substitution in greek manufacturing during the 1980s is examined using pooled data in static and dynamic translog expenditure share models inputs are capital labor electricity and non electrical energy liquid solid gas own price elasticities for capital and labor are inelastic but for electricity more elastic 0 90 results indicate substitutability among factors in the short run in the long run electricity and capital are complements as are labor and non electrical energy greek manufacturing is predicted to continue decreased consumption of liquid fuels to the year 2000 continuing the electrification begun in the 1970s

oil prices and mena stock markets new evidence from nonlinear and asymmetric causalities during and after the crisis period this article investigates the potential of nonlinear causal relationships between world oil prices and stock markets in middle east and north africa mena countries during a black swan period that is characterized by rarity and devastating impacts our study is carried out using the daily data for 11 mena countries over the period from 2 july 2007 to 27 august 2012 by using the nonlinear and asymmetric causality test of kyrtsou and labys 2006 we mainly find that i the oil prices and mena stock markets interact in a nonlinear manner ii the signs of changes in the causing variables are important for detecting the true causality links between the variables and iii the nonlinear causality is more pronounced in the case of the brent than west texas intermediate oil prices

energy consumption at business cycle horizons the case of the united states in this paper we propose a simple extension to a keynesian type macro model by augmenting it with energy consumption we show the relationship between energy consumption and output in a macroeconomic setting and ask the question do permanent shocks dominate changes in energy consumption and output at business cycle horizons for the united states to achieve the goal of this paper we undertake a variance decomposition analysis of shocks based on a common trend and common cycle framework within a vector error correction model our main finding is that permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in energy consumption and output at business cycle horizons for the united states

oil price shocks economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in china asymmetric effects with quantile regression abstract this paper investigates the impact of crude oil shocks and china s economic policy uncertainty on stock returns at different locations on the return distributions based on monthly data from 1995 1 to 2016 3 we address this issue by employing the quantile regression technique this approach enables a more detailed investigation in different market circumstances namely bearish normal and bullish markets empirical results indicate that the effects of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty are asymmetric and highly related to stock market conditions moreover both the nexus of oil and economic policy uncertainty stock are changed at the onset of a crisis specially rising oil prices have greater negative effects on stock returns when stock markets are bullish extreme higher quantiles before a crisis whereas the effects are significantly positive under different market conditions after the onset of the crisis falling oil prices lower stock returns when stock markets are bullish and normal before the crisis whereas lower stock returns under different market conditions except extreme bullish after the onset of the crisis these findings might be related to the optimistic or pessimistic investor sentiments and investors might become more frightened after the crisis

regime switching in the reactions of stock markets in saudi arabia to oil price variations the study revisits the stock oil nexus by examining the reactions of equity markets to oil price shocks at national and sectoral levels for saudi arabia in a time varying framework by employing the markov switching egarch model developed by henry 2009 journal of banking and finance 33 405 based on weekly data the findings reveal that the behaviour of all stock markets switches between an expansion regime and a recession regime with more persistence for the expansion state additionally influential international events associated with stock market drops are clearly identified in the recession regime furthermore there is evidence of asymmetric reactions of the equity index returns and the probabilities of transition from one state to another to oil price variations with heterogeneous impacts across sectors and regimes the stock markets are more sensitive to oil price decreases than to oil price increases although the evidence of relatively slight differences in some findings across weekdays the study allows investors and policymakers to understand well the interactions of stock sector markets vis a vis the world oil market in a regime switching framework in order to make the right decision as regards portfolio diversification and regulation of the stock markets

macro economy stock market and oil prices do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations this paper examines the relationship among consumer price index industrial production stock market and oil prices in greece initially we use a unified statistical framework cointegration and vecm to study the data in levels we then employ a multivariate var model to examine the relationship among the cyclical components of our series the period of the study is from 1996 1 to 2008 6 findings suggest that oil prices and the stock market exercise a positive effect on the greek cpi in the long run cyclical components analysis suggests that oil prices exercise significant negative influence to the stock market in addition oil prices are negatively influencing cpi at a significant level however we find no effect of oil prices on industrial production and cpi finally no relationship can be documented between the industrial production and stock market for the greek market the findings of this study are of particular interest and importance to policy makers financial managers financial analysts and investors dealing with the greek economy and the greek stock market

volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns implications for portfolio management abstract in this article we take a recent generalized var garch approach to examine the extent of volatility transmission between oil and stock markets in europe and the united states at the sector level the empirical model is advantageous in that it typically allows simultaneous shock transmission in the conditional returns and volatilities insofar as volatility transmission across oil and stock sector markets is a crucial element for portfolio designs and risk management we also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil stock portfolio holdings with respect to the results our findings point to the existence of significant volatility spillover between oil and sector stock returns however the spillover is usually unidirectional from oil markets to stock markets in europe but bidirectional in the united states our back testing procedures finally suggest that taking the cross market volatility spillovers estimated from the var garch models often leads to diversification benefits and hedging effectiveness better than those of commonly used multivariate volatility models such as the ccc garch of bollerslev 1990 the diagonal bekk garch of engle and kroner 1995 and the dcc garch of engle 2002

the asymmetric impact of oil prices interest rates and oil price uncertainty on unemployment in the us abstract in this study we investigate the presence of asymmetric interactions between oil prices oil price uncertainty interest rates and unemployment in a cointegration framework utilizing the nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag nardl approach we show the asymmetric responses of unemployment to changes in oil prices oil price uncertainty and interest rates in the long run more specifically the results of our analyses suggest that an increase in oil price results in increased unemployment while there is no significant impact of reduced oil prices on the one hand reduced oil price uncertainty leads to a decrease in unemployment whereas an increase in oil price uncertainty does not have an impact we also observe increased unemployment in response to a decrease in interest rates as the impact of increased interest rates is not significant last but not least we find that option implied oil price volatility as a measure of oil price uncertainty outperforms the conditional volatility of crude oil prices in predicting unemployment this study provides valuable implications for policymakers to design sound economic policies

on the links between stock and commodity markets volatility this paper investigates the links between price returns for 25 commodities and stocks over the period from january 2001 to november 2011 by paying a particular attention to energy raw materials relying on the dynamic conditional correlation dcc garch methodology we show that the correlations between commodity and stock markets evolve through time and are highly volatile particularly since the 2007 2008 financial crisis the latter has played a key role emphasizing the links between commodity and stock markets and underlining the financialization of commodity markets at the idiosyncratic level a speculation phenomenon is highlighted for oil coffee and cocoa while the safe haven role of gold is evidenced

oil price shocks and european industries abstract we investigate the impact of oil price shocks at the industry level in the euro area for the period 1983 2007 we use different oil price specifications and use dynamic var models and multivariate regression to investigate how 38 different industries respond to oil price shocks we pay specific attention to the asymmetry of the industries responses regarding oil price increases and decreases we find that the impact of oil price shocks substantially differs along the different industries we find that the significance of this result also differs along the various oil price specifications the results are quite robust to the way in which we model the problem

the effects of oil price shocks on the iranian economy abstract the iranian economy is highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks and major macroeconomic variables in iran by applying a var approach the study points out the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks for instance positive as well as negative oil price shocks significantly increase inflation we find a strong positive relationship between positive oil price changes and industrial output growth unexpectedly we can only identify a marginal impact of oil price fluctuations on real government expenditures furthermore we observe the dutch disease syndrome through significant real effective exchange rate appreciation

oil shocks and financial systemic stress international evidence abstract by conducting a structural var analysis on the financial systemic stress in 20 countries this paper provides international evidence that oil structural shocks impact not only stress in individual financial markets but also their connectedness the oil structural shocks explain a large fraction of the variation in the connectedness among various financial markets the effect of oil structural shocks on financial systemic stress is largely dependent on the origins of oil price changes and a country s net oil export position in most oil importing economies financial systemic stress is negatively impacted by supply and aggregate demand shocks and positively impacted by oil market specific demand shocks opposite patterns are detected in oil exporting economies the effects of the spillovers are asymmetrically related with market conditions during normal periods more risks are spilled over from the oil market to financial systems but during financial crises the opposite occurs in periods of financial crises and oil price collapses there is noticeable contagion between the oil market and financial systems

poverty traps indeterminacy and the wealth distribution we consider a one sector growth model in continuous time with a production externality and endogenous labor supply there is a continuum of households who have identical preferences but differ with respect to their initial wealth we show that there exist economies such that an indeterminate steady state exists for some wealth distribution but not for others a second result is that a redistribution of wealth may drive the economy from a steady state with strictly positive output to a poverty trap in which output converges asymptotically to zero these results indicate that differences in the wealth distribution may be responsible for drastic differences in the long run standard of living journal of economic literature classification numbers d31 d50 o41

the relationship between energy and equity markets evidence from volatility impulse response functions this paper examines the relationship between the energy and equity markets by estimating volatility impulse response functions from a multivariate bekk model of the goldman sach s energy index and the sp in addition we also calculate the time varying conditional correlations and time varying dynamic hedge ratios from volatility impulse response functions we find that low sp however we find only a weak response from s p 500 volatility to energy price shocks moreover our dynamic hedge ratio analysis suggests that the energy index is generally a poor hedging instrument

accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas fired generation the role of forward natural gas prices abstract unlike natural gas fired generation renewable generation e g from wind solar and geothermal power is largely immune to fuel price risk if ratepayers are rational and value long term price stability then contrary to common practice any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input rather than an uncertain gas price forecast this paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures swaps and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long term forecasts of spot gas prices we find that from 2000 to 2003 forward gas prices for terms of 2 10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long term gas price forecasts this difference is striking and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas fired generation

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

crude oil and the macroeconomy tests of some popular notions a note perhaps no other economic events in the post world war ii era have generated as much attention as the series of crude oil price shocks that have jolted the world economy since the opec boycott of 1973 a tremendous amount of space in the popular and professional literature has been devoted to analyzing the impacts of these shocks on the developed economies and the adjustments these shocks have induced one residual of this literature has been a general impression that since 1973 the functional relationship between crude oil prices and the developed macroeconomies has been dramatically and fundamentally altered yet to our knowledge no one has formally tested this impression recent evidence of hamilton 1983 suggests that crude oil prices had a strong impact on the u s business cycle well before 1973 further while textbook treatments of oil price shocks tend to highlight cost push inflationary effects the research of berndt and wood 1975 1979 and wilcox 1983 indicates the net complementarity between energy and capital in the u s economy is quite strong both before and after 1973 thus oil price shocks may have stronger real effects than generally believed in this paper we formally test three popular notions associated with the so called

leverage effects and stochastic volatility in spot oil returns a bayesian approach with var and cvar applications abstract crude oil markets have been quite volatile and risky in the past few decades due to the large fluctuations of oil prices we contribute to the current debate by testing for the existence of the leverage effect when considering daily spot returns in the wti and brent crude oil markets and by studying the direct impact of the leverage effect on measures of risk such as var and cvar more specifically we model spot crude oil returns using stochastic volatility sv models with various distributions of the errors we find that the introduction of the leverage effect in the traditional sv model with normally distributed errors is capable of adequately estimating risk for speculative oil suppliers in both the wti and brent markets our results also show that financial regulators model choice both on the supply and on the demand side would not be affected by the introduction of leverage focusing instead on firm s internal risk management our results show that the introduction of leverage would be useful for firms who are on the demand side for oil who use var for risk management and who are particularly worried about the magnitude of the losses exceeding var while wanting to minimize the opportunity cost of capital using the same logic firms who are on the supply side would be better off not considering the leverage effect

embodied pollution in trade estimating the environmental load displacement of industrialised countries abstract the present paper sets out to aid in the development of environmental load displacement indicators developing the notion of the environmental memory of physical flows we estimated embodied pollution in trade of 18 industrialized countries with a the rest of the world and b developing countries from 1976 to 1994 we found that in the last years of analysis total imports of japan usa and western europe have entailed in general larger air pollutant emissions than local exports the balance of embodied emissions in trade beet seems to follow an inverted u shape across time in japan and western europe and an n shape in the us in the period of analysis japanese and european environmental terms of trade with developing countries improved from the japanese and european point of view whereas american environmental terms of trade with developing countries deteriorated over time although there is no statistical trend between income and embodied emissions in imports in a cross section analysis there does seem to be a positive relationship between both variables at a national level the results suggest that despite many shortcomings this type of assessment may shed useful insights on the international aspects of sustainable development

the directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets new evidence from implied volatility indexes in this paper we use a set of newly introduced implied volatility indexes to investigate the directional connectedness between oil and equities in eleven major stock exchanges around the globe from 2008 to 2015 the inference on the oil equity implied volatility relationships depends on diebold and yilmaz 2012 2014 2015 who proposed a set of directional measures that enable the dynamic and directional characterization of the relationships among financial variables we find uniform results across the sample countries indicating that the connectedness between oil and equity is established by the bi directional information spillovers between the two markets however we find that the bulk of association is largely dominated by the transmissions from the oil market to equity markets and not the other way around the pattern of transmissions is varying over the sample period however most of the linkages between oil and equities are established from the mid of 2009 to the mid of 2012 which is a period that witnessed the start of global recovery

equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos abstract this paper surveys current developments in dynamic general equilibrium theory concerned with conditions under which endogenous fluctuations are possible existing contributions are divided into two classes the larger one consists of models with a unique perfect foresight equilibrium while the second includes models where equilibrium is indeterminate and the set of equilibria involving endogenous fluctuations includes sunspots equilibria while the two classes of models involve oscillations of different natures and with different policy implications we show that both are consistent with optimizing behavior and competitive equilibrium

oil and stock market volatility a multivariate stochastic volatility perspective abstract this paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction it offers four major findings first the stock and oil futures prices are inter related their correlation follows a time varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile second conditioned on the past information the volatility in each market is very persistent i e it varies in a predictable manner third there is inter market dependence in volatility innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market in other words conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets the past volatility of the stock oil futures market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures stock market finally the model produces more accurate value at risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry

oil price shocks and the dispersion hypothesis recent research by david lilien shows that a significant fraction of aggregate unemployment can be explained by the dispersion of employment growth across industries this paper presents two new results in this area first it is shown that a significant fraction of the variation in lilien s dispersion index is due to the differential impact of oil shocks across industries second and more important it is shown that once the dispersion in employment growth due to oil shocks is accounted for the residual dispersion has no explanatory power for unemployment

relationships between oil price shocks and stock market an empirical analysis from china this paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto regression oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most chinese stock market indices except for manufacturing index and some oil companies some important oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index which raise their stock returns both the world oil price shocks and china oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

energy contagion analysis a new perspective with application to a small petroleum economy abstract we put forward the novel concept of energy contagion i e a deepening of energy finance linkages under crisis conditions in energy markets further we show how to construct tests for energy contagion through correlation co skewness and co volatility channels the samples of our contagion measures are defined in terms of calm and crisis periods in the international crude oil market in particular we compare how these various co moments in the energy finance nexus change during 1 oil booms and slumps using semi parametric rule based algorithms 2 tranquil and turbulent oil price volatility episodes using a non hierarchical k means clustering algorithm energy contagion analysis is essential for financial stability analysis in economies where prosperity is linked to the prices of hard commodities our applications are performed on the oil exchange rate and oil stock market relationships of the small petroleum economy of trinidad and tobago the main results show a negative oil real effective exchange rate dependency a weak oil stock returns association and the existence of several energy contagion channels in both financial relationships which are sensitive to the contemporary global financial crash

does the source of oil price shocks matter for south african stock returns a structural var approach abstract in this paper we investigate the dynamic relationship between different oil price shocks and the south african stock market using a sign restriction structural var approach for the period 1973 01 to 2011 07 the results show that for an oil importing country like south africa stock returns only increase with oil prices when global economic activity improves in response to oil supply shocks and speculative demand shocks stock returns and the real price of oil move in opposite directions the analysis of the variance decomposition shows that the oil supply shock contributes more to the variability in real stock prices the main conclusion is that different oil price shocks affect stock returns differently and policy makers and investors should always consider the source of the shock before implementing a policy and making investment decisions

relationship between the oil price volatility and sectoral stock markets in oil exporting economies evidence from wavelet nonlinear denoised based quantile and granger causality analysis abstract this paper examines the extent of volatility between oil price and sectoral indices in the gulf cooperation council gcc countries by using quantile regression analysis qra for the return s series and denoised series over the period 2006 2017 four sectors are found to offer diversification opportunities during a high market i e 90th quantile all the sectors are found interdependent of oil price volatility however the bank and insurance sectors are insusceptible to oil price volatility during the 10th 25th and 75th quantiles in addition qra results for wavelet nonlinear denoising with a soft thresholding series indicate that all the sectors are interdependent of oil price volatility but that the aggregate market index transport and telecommunication sectors are insensitive to oil price volatility during the 75th and 90th quantiles this highlights the usefulness of denoising the financial returns series when applying regression tools moreover the contagion and interdependence between the oil price and stock returns sectors are estimated by frequency domain causality

equilibrium dynamics in two sector models of endogenous growth abstract this paper considers two extensions of the uzawa lucas framework in our first extension physical capital is included as an input of the educational sector in our second extension leisure considerations are assumed to play a positive role in agents welfare the case with physical capital in the production of education features under standard conditions a unique steady state and thus the dynamics are qualitatively similar to those of the original uzawa lucas framework in our second model with leisure there could be a multiplicity of steady states with different rates of growth what determines here the chosen rate of growth is the initial relative amount of physical and human capital our results therefore illustrate that in a world without externalities there could coexist different long term growth rates

the heterogeneity dependence between crude oil price changes and industry stock market returns in china evidence from a quantile regression approach this paper explores the dependence between real crude oil price changes and chinese real industry stock market returns based on the monthly data from 1994 03 to 2014 06 we address this issue using the quantile regression approach enabling a more detailed investigation of structure and degree of dependence empirical results reveal that the reaction of market returns to crude oil is highly heterogeneous across conditional distribution of industry stock returns furthermore there is evidence that this dependence is positive and exists only in recessions or bearish markets with low expected returns the dependence at low quantiles is not limited to one market but is a common feature across industries additionally dependence also changes since the onset of structural breaks we determine that chinese industry stock and global crude oil markets have contagion in rare situations most cases do not demonstrate contagion

an aggregative model of capital accumulation with leisure dependent utility this paper analyzes an aggregative optimal growth model where both consumption and leisure enter as arguments in the utility function if consumption and leisure are substitutes the model can generate multiple steady states if consumption and leisure are complements the optimal path may turn out to be cyclical preferences play an important role in determining the steady state to which the economy converges

the effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in china crude oil price shocks derive from many sources each of which may bring about different effects on macro economy variables and require completely different designs in macro economic policy thus distinguishing the sources of oil price fluctuations is crucial when evaluating these effects this paper establishes an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model with two economies china and the rest of the world to assess the effects of oil price shocks the ces production function is extended by adding oil as an input based on the model the effects of four types of oil price fluctuations are evaluated the four types of oil price shocks are supply shocks driven by political events in opec countries other oil supply shocks aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market simulation results indicate the following oil supply shocks driven by political events mainly produce short term effects on china s output and inflation while the other three shocks produce relatively long term effects in addition demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market contribute the most to the fluctuations in china s output and inflation

asymmetric impacts of international energy shocks on macroeconomic activities while limited by its scarcity of natural resources the impacts of energy price changes on taiwan s economic activities have been an important issue for social public and government authorities this study applies the multivariate threshold model to investigate the effects of various international energy price shocks on taiwan s macroeconomic activity by separating energy price changes into the so called decrease and increase regimes we can realize different impacts of energy price changes and their shocks on economic output the results confirm that there is an asymmetric threshold effect for the energy output nexus the optimal threshold levels are exactly where the oil price change is at 2 48 the natural gas price change is at 0 66 and the coal price change is at 0 25 the impulse response analysis suggests that oil price and natural gas shocks have a delayed negative impact on macroeconomic activities 2012 published by elsevier ltd

the asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities an application of the multivariate threshold model this paper applies the multivariate threshold model to investigate the impacts of an oil price change and its volatility on economic activities changes in industrial production and real stock returns the statistical test on the existence of a threshold effect indicates that a threshold value does exist using monthly data of the us canada and japan during the period from 1970 to 2002 we conclude i the optimal threshold level seems to vary according to how an economy depends on imported oil and the attitude towards adopting energy saving technology ii an oil price change or its volatility has a limited impact on the economies if the change is below the threshold levels iii if the change is above threshold levels it appears that the change in oil price better explains macroeconomic variables than the volatility of the oil price and iv if the change is above threshold levels a change in oil price or its volatility explains the model better than the real interest rate

the demand for energy in greek manufacturing abstract this paper considers an econometric approach to measuring substitutability of three types of energy i e crude oil electricity and diesel with capital and labour in the manufacturing sector of greek industry during the period 1970 1990 a general dynamic framework is developed under the assumption that the structure of the production process is weakly separable in capital labour and energy aggregates the translog total cost function is used to represent the production technology the main advantages of the proposed dynamic structure are that it is both disaggregated in energy components and consistent with the neo classical theory of production

cross country differences in the effects of oil shocks abstract we compare the macroeconomic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in the economy the results crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price shift when a rise in oil prices is caused by increased global economic activity or a rise in oil specific demand almost all countries experience respectively a temporary increase and transitory decline of real gdp the role of oil and other forms of energy cannot explain the differences in the effects of both shocks across countries in contrast this role is very important to explain asymmetries in the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks whereas net oil and energy importing countries typically face a permanent fall in economic activity the impact is insignificant or even positive in net energy exporting countries in addition countries that improved their net energy position the most over time became less vulnerable to oil supply shocks relative to other countries

historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy abstract the purpose of this paper is to identify the changes in the impact of energy shocks on economic activity with an interest in assessing if an economy s vulnerability and resilience to shocks improved with economic development using data on the united kingdom over the last three hundred years the paper identifies supply aggregate demand and residual shocks to energy prices and estimates their changing influence on energy prices and gdp the results suggest that the impacts of supply shocks rose with its increasing dependence on coal and declined with its partial transition to oil however the transition from exporting coal to importing oil increased the negative impacts of demand shocks more generally the results indicate that improvements in vulnerability and resilience to shocks did not progress systematically as the economy developed instead the changes in impacts depended greatly on the circumstances related to the demand for and supply of energy sources if these experiences are transferable to future markets a transition to a diversified mix of renewable energy is likely to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience to energy price shocks

price of oil and world inflation and recession new evidence shows that the commonly held assumption that the 1973 74 oil price increase directly affected us and world inflation and subsequent recession is consistent with the empirical data an extended lucas varro real income equation applied to the us united kingdom canada france germany italy japan and the netherlands gives mixed results partly because of price control and decontrol programs simulation experiments on the price control variable using us data finds strong effects further studies can be made when consistent international data is available for the 1979 80 period 18 references 4 figures 3 tables dck

energy limits on recycling abstract increasing efficiency of resource use is a major ecological economics goal opportunities for large efficiency increases have been found in every area carefully investigated what are the limits energy analysis offers powerful insights ayres has argued that even with unlimited available energy over time it becomes necessary to have ever more dilute waste reservoirs if correct this would significantly limit the potential of a hypothetical sustainable spaceship and of a spaceship economy however we know the world is self contained and long lived and that stable laboratory microcosms have been built thus this assertion appears to violate reality i argue that the alleged problem does not exist given available energy there is no concentration limit on sustainability my result is consistent with the work of georgescu roegen and others i estimate some numerical examples to show that present systems are extremely far from theoretical limits for a long time to come there will be vast opportunities to improve efficiency the paper includes a classification schema for recycling based on chemical bonding and thermodynamic considerations

a wavelet analysis of mean and volatility spillovers between oil and brics stock markets this paper investigates the spillover effects of volatility and shocks between oil prices and the brics stock markets using multivariate approach and wavelet analysis at different time horizons hence we combine a multivariate arma garch model and wavelet multiresolution analysis to study this phenomenon a bivariate arma 1 1 garch 1 1 cdcc student t model was joined with modwt filter to capture a broad range of possible spillover effects in mean and variances of level prices at various time horizons generally empirical results provide strong evidence of time varying volatility in all markets under study however our proposed approach shows that oil price and stock market prices are directly affected by their own news and volatilities and indirectly affected by the volatilities of other prices and wavelet scale the results show also that mean and volatility spillover effects was decomposed into many sub spillovers on different time scales according to heterogeneous investors and market participants the practical implications of this study are critical innovative and useful for the local and international investors and also for the portfolio managers they can utilize this study to formulate the optimal oil bricks stock portfolios as well as lead to more accurate predictions of volatility spillovers patterns also in developing their hedging strategies

oil price shocks and stock markets in the u s and 13 european countries abstract oil price shocks have a statistically significant impact on real stock returns contemporaneously and or within the following month in the u s and 13 european countries over 1986 1 2005 12 norway as an oil exporter shows a statistically significantly positive response of real stock returns to an oil price increase the median result from variance decomposition analysis is that oil price shocks account for a statistically significant 6 of the volatility in real stock returns for many european countries but not for the u s increased volatility of oil prices significantly depresses real stock returns the contribution of oil price shocks to variability in real stock returns in the u s and most other countries is greater than that of interest rate an increase in real oil price is associated with a significant increase in the short term interest rate in the u s and eight out of 13 european countries within one or two months counter to findings for the u s and for norway there is little evidence of asymmetric effects on real stock returns of positive and negative oil price shocks for oil importing european countries

exploiting the oil gdp effect to support renewables deployment the empirical evidence from a growing body of academic literature clearly suggests that oil price increases and volatility dampen macroeconomic growth by raising inflation and unemployment and by depressing the value of financial and other assets surprisingly this issue seems to have received little attention from energy policy makers in percentage terms the oil gdp effect is relatively small producing losses in the order of 0 5 of gdp for a 10 oil price increase in absolute terms however even a 10 oil price rise oil has risen at least 50 in the last year alone produces gdp losses that could they have been averted would significantly offset the cost of increased re deployment this paper draws on the empirical oil gdp literature which we summarize to show that i by displacing gas and oil renewable energy investments can help nations avoid costly macroeconomic losses produced by the oil gdp effect and ii that these avoided losses represent a significant external macroeconomic benefit of such investments we show that a 10 increase in re share avoids gdp losses in the range of 29 53 billion in the us and the eu 49 90 billion for oecd these avoided losses offset one fifth of the re investment needs projected by the erec and half the oecd investment projected by a g 8 task force for the us the figures further suggest that each additional kw of renewables on average avoids 250 450 in gdp losses a figure that varies across technologies as a function of annual capacity factors we approximate that the offset is worth 200 kw for wind and solar and 800 kw for geothermal and biomass while we focus only on renewables the gdp offset will apply in some measure to other non fossil technologies including energy efficiency dsm and nuclear the societal valuation of non fossil alternatives must reflect these avoided gdp losses whose benefit is not fully captured by private investors this said we fully recognize that wealth created in this manner does not directly form a pool of public funds that is easily earmarked for renewables support finally the oil gdp relationship has important implications for correctly estimating direct electricity generating cost for conventional and renewable alternatives and for developing more useful energy security and diversity concepts we also address these issues

competitive equilibrium cycles recently there has been a surge of interest in endogenous business cycles that arise in competitive laissez faire economies in the context of standard overlapping generations economies conditions for the existence of equilibrium cycles have been given by grandmont 1983 and by benhabib and day 1982 models of the economy with extrinsic uncertainty or sunspots that have been developed by shell 1977 and by cass and shell 1983 see also balasko 1983 can also lead to equilibrium cycles

energy and economic growth in industrializing countries the case of greece abstract this paper investigates some aspects of the interrelated paths of economic growth and energy demand in the case of an industrializing economy through the use of numerous econometric models translog functions have helped establish that income and price elasticities of energy two critical parameters in the energy economy interaction exhibit falling trends with time the value share of the industrial sector is strongly associated with both energy demand and energy intensity any increase in the former will lead to amplified increases in the latter rendering the continuation of past trends in industrial expansion questionable under conditions of high energy costs substitution among capital labour and energy does take place though to a limited extent as indicated by the aggregate measure of energy non energy substitution elasticity all findings appear to suggest that energy policymaking in an industrializing country like greece will be of low effectiveness until certain structural changes in the economy are realized

how does public information affect the frequency of trading in airline stocks abstract this paper examines how firm specific and macroeconomic announcements affect transaction rates in u s airline stocks using a version of the autoregressive conditional hazard framework of hamilton and jorda 2002 that incorporates market microstructure variables we show that on average trading intensity spikes prior and consequent to macroeconomic announcements but decreases around firm specific releases further when we use intraday crude oil futures returns as a proxy for industry relevant and globally important news we find that their effects are statistically significant with higher oil futures returns increasing the probability of trade

dynamic spillovers between oil and stock markets in the gulf cooperation council countries this article exploits a new spillover directional measure proposed by diebold and yilmaz 2009 2012 to investigate the dynamic spillover of return and volatility between oil and equities in the gulf cooperation council countries during the period 2004 to 2012 our results indicate that return and volatility transmissions are bi directional albeit asymmetric in particular the oil market gives other markets more than it receives in terms of both returns and volatilities these trends were more pronounced in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008 as the net contribution of oil has intensified after a burst during the crisis the empirical evidence from the sample is consistent with a system in which oil is playing the dominant role in the information transmission mechanism between oil and equities in the gcc countries

changing crude oil price effects on us agricultural employment the effect of changes in the price of crude oil on agricultural employment in the usa between 1947 and 1995 is investigated after reviewing previous assessments of the issue the existence of an empirical relationship between agricultural employment and crude oil price changes is established using granger causality subsequently the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable effects of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in agricultural employment are exhausted finally the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in agricultural employment and changes in the price of crude oil the percentage changes in expected net farm income realized technological innovation and the wage rate is studied

crude oil and stock markets stability instability and bubbles abstract we analyze the long run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971 1 2008 3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors allowing for endogenously identified breaks in the cointegrating and error correction matrices we find evidence for breaks after 1980 5 1988 1 and 1999 9 there is a clear long run relationship between these series for six oecd countries for 1971 1 1980 5 and 1988 2 1999 9 suggesting that stock market indices respond negatively to increases in the oil price in the long run during 1980 6 1988 1 we find relationships that are not statistically significantly different from either zero or from the relationships of the previous period the expected negative long run relationship appears to disintegrate after 1999 9 this finding supports a conjecture of change in the relationship between real oil price and real stock prices in the last decade compared to earlier years which may suggest the presence of several stock market bubbles and or oil price bubbles since the turn of the century

the impact of energy price uncertainty on macroeconomic variables abstract this paper evaluates the macroeconomic implications of energy price volatility through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium dsge model in an open economy the model develops a small open economy in which households consume energy products and firms use energy as productivity inputs where the country is so small that it needs to import energy the price of which is determined abroad whereas positive energy price shocks cause an economic slowdown due to higher costs for consumers and firms energy price volatility shocks generate an increase in gdp in the short run and a reversal in the long run these findings are empirically supported by estimates from a panel var model applied to 10 asian economies where energy price volatility has a positive impact on gdp in the short run moreover the paper finds that increasing demand or supply uncertainty also affect energy prices with amplified fluctuations relative to a model that abstracts from energy market volatility leads households to cut consumption for precautionary savings motives which in turn increases investment both energy price and uncertainty fluctuation lead to high macroeconomic volatility in the business cycle policy makers should encourage investment in energy security and renewable energy such that households and firms would become less responding to fluctuations in the non renewable energy market

oil price shocks stock market economic activity and employment in greece abstract using a multivariate vector autoregression var approach this paper attempts to shed light into the dynamic relationship among oil prices real stock prices interest rates real economic activity and employment for greece the empirical evidence suggests that oil price changes affect real economic activity and employment oil prices are important in explaining stock price movements stock returns do not lead to changes in real activity and employment

oil and energy price volatility it is commonly believed that since the 1973 oil crisis oil and energy prices have been more volatile than other commodity prices this study examines monthly producer prices for thousands of products over the period january 1945 through august 2005 the results show that crude oil refined petroleum and natural gas prices are more volatile than prices for about 95 of products sold by domestic producers relative to crude commodities however crude oil prices are currently more volatile than about 65 of other products and oil price volatility first exceeded the median for crude commodities following the 1986 drop in oil prices

relationship between oil prices interest rate and unemployment evidence from an emerging market abstract while the interrelation between oil price changes economic activity and employment is an important issue that has been studied mainly for developed countries little attention has been devoted to inquiries on fluctuations in the price of crude oil and its impact on employment for small open economies adopting an efficiency wage model for equilibrium employment that does not require any assumptions regarding labor supply this paper contributes to the literature by investigating the causality between unemployment and two input prices namely energy crude oil and capital real interest rate in an emerging market turkey for the period 2005 01 2009 08 applying a relatively new technique the toda yamamoto procedure we find that the real price of oil and interest rate improve the forecasts of unemployment in the long run this finding supports the hypothesis that labor is a substitute factor of production for capital and energy

can environmental sustainability be used to manage energy price risk energy security issues and climate change are two of the most pressing problems facing society and both of these problems are likely to increase energy price variability in the coming years this paper develops and estimates a model of a company s energy price exposure and presents evidence showing that increases in a company s environmental sustainability lowers its energy price exposure this result is robust across two different measures of energy prices these results should be useful to companies seeking new ways of addressing energy price risk as well as governments concerned about the impact that energy price risk can have on economic growth and prosperity

the relationships between petroleum and stock returns an asymmetric dynamic equi correlation approach in this paper we propose an asymmetric dynamic equi correlation adeco model to investigate the correlations between returns of petroleum futures and stock indices our adeco reveals the in sample significant asymmetric effect in oil stock correlations to evaluate out of sample performance we consider a portfolio with petroleum futures and stocks in which the weights are determined by forecasts of covariance matrix we find that adeco provides portfolios with better performances than existing popular deco dcc and adcc models in the minimum variance framework moreover energy price risk can be better hedged by stocks in oil exporting countries than stocks in oil importing countries our findings are further demonstrated to be robust to the change of futures maturity

the effects of terrorism and war on the oil price stock index relationship abstract the effects war and terrorism have on the covariance between oil prices and the indices of four major stock markets the american s p500 the european dax cac40 and ftse100 using non linear bekk garch type models are investigated the findings indicate that the covariance between stock and oil returns is affected by war a tentative explanation is that the two wars examined here predispose investors and market agents for more profound and longer lasting effects on global markets on the other hand terrorist incidents that are one off unanticipated security shocks only the co movement between cac40 dax and oil returns is affected and no significant impact is observed in the relationship between the s p500 ftse100 and oil returns this difference in the reaction may tentatively be interpreted as indicating that the latter are more efficient in absorbing the impact of terrorist attacks

oil price fluctuation volatility spillover and the ghanaian equity market implication for portfolio management and hedging effectiveness abstract this study attempts to contribute to the literature on stock markets and energy prices by examining the dynamic volatility and volatility transmission between oil and ghanaian stock market returns in a multivariate setting using the recently developed var garch var agarch and dcc garch frameworks in turn the models results are used to compute and analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil stock portfolio holdings for comparison purposes and to put the paper more in the perspective of west africa the nigerian stock market is also included in the analysis our findings point to the existence of significant volatility spillover and interdependence between oil and the two stock market returns while spillover effects are stronger for nigeria the transmission of volatility is much more apparent from oil to stock than from stock to oil in the case of ghana also the study demonstrates evidence of short term predictability in oil and stock price changes through time and reveals that conditional volatility changes more rapidly as result of substantial effects of past volatility rather than past news shocks for all market returns moreover we show that there is a slightly more effective hedge in the two stock markets under the dcc garch framework our preferred model compared to the other two models although hedging effectiveness is much greater for ghana on the whole our findings for optimal hedge ratios are consistent with other studies and particularly the view that oil assets should be an integral part of a diversified portfolio of stocks and suggest that a better understanding of volatility links is crucial for portfolio management in the presence of oil price risk finally the existence of multivariate asymmetric effects and dynamic conditional correlations as revealed by the var agarch and dcc garch models make it clear that the assumptions of symmetric effects and constant conditional correlations are not supported empirically

crude oil shocks and stock markets a panel threshold cointegration approach abstract this paper proposes a panel threshold cointegration approach to investigate the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets for the oecd and non oecd panel from january 1995 to december 2009 nonlinear cointegration is confirmed for the oil stock nexus in the panel because threshold cointegration is found the threshold vector error correction models can be run to investigate the presence of asymmetric dynamic adjustment the granger causality tests demonstrate the existence of bidirectional long run granger causality between crude oil shocks and stock markets for these oecd and non oecd countries however the short run granger causality between them is bidirectional under positive changes in the deviation and unidirectional under negative ones moreover the speed of adjustment toward equilibrium is faster under negative changes in the deviation than that under positive ones in these oecd and non oecd countries

market failures in the r d growth model with endogenous labor supply abstract this paper shows that even in the absence of externalities there is a market failure associated with an endogenous choice between labor and leisure in a growth model with imperfect competition the reason for this is that workers are paid less than the value of their marginal products and therefore supply less labor than would be optimal from the viewpoint of the society as a whole this in turn hampers growth it is also demonstrated how this inefficiency can be corrected by an appropriate wage subsidy

energy demand in greece abstract this paper examines the impact of the two energy crises 1973 74 and 1978 79 on energy demand in greece initially some specific characteristics of energy consumption patterns before and after 1973 are presented and compared then demand parameters for hydroelectric energy liquid fuels and solid fuels were estimated using data for the period 1963 1984 and alternative econometric methods ols 2sls fiml to ensure that estimates do not vary across different estimation methods appropriate tests were used to examine whether a structural change in energy demand has occured following either of the two crises the results indicate that while consumption patterns may be different due to price and income changes after the crises the parameters of energy demand in greece have remained unchanged

assessing the impact of oil prices on firms of different sizes its tough being in the middle recent empirical research has found evidence of a relationship between oil price movements and stock prices most published research investigates the relationship between oil price movements and stock prices using either economy wide measures of stock prices or industry sector measures of stock prices an important question that has largely gone unanswered relates to the relationship between oil prices and stock prices when the size of firms is allowed to vary relative to large firms do oil price movements have larger or smaller impacts on the stock prices of small or medium sized firms the answer to this question could have important policy implications that affect economic growth and prosperity in this paper a panel of firms is followed over a 17 year period to investigate the relationship between oil price movements firm size and stock prices evidence is found that shows the relationship between oil price movements and stock prices does vary with firm size and the relationship is strongest for medium sized firms

the second law the fourth law recycling and limits to growth abstract despite counter examples in nature it has been argued that total recycling is impossible for an industrial society as a consequence of the second law of thermodynamics in this paper it is shown that there is no such limitation however it is also shown that there must be a large stockpile of inactive materials as well as an exogenous source of exergy e g from the sun for a stable steady state recycling system to function the paper also discusses briefly some of the implications for economic growth

the causal nexus between oil prices and equity market in the u s a regime switching model abstract the aim of this paper is to analyse the causal link between monthly oil futures price changes and a sub grouping of s p 500 stock index changes the causal linkage between oil and stock markets is modelled using a vector autoregressive model with time varying parameters so as to reflect changes in granger causality over time a markov switching vector autoregressive ms var model in which causal link between the series is stochastic and governed by an unobservable markov chain is used for inferring time varying causality although we do not find any lead lag type granger causality the results based on the ms var model clearly show that oil futures price has strong regime prediction power for a sub grouping of s p 500 stock index during various sub periods in the sample while there is a weak evidence for the regime prediction power of a sub grouping of s p 500 stock indexes the regime prediction non causality tests on the ms var model show that both variables are useful for making inference about the regime process and that the evidence on regime prediction causality is primarily found in the equation describing a sub grouping of s p 500 stock market returns the evidence from the conditional non causality tests shows that past information on the other series fails to improve the one step ahead prediction for both oil futures and stock returns

interdependence of oil prices and stock market indices a copula approach article i nfo article history in this paper we study the relationship between the oil price and stock market index of various countries between 1982 and 2007 we exclude oil and gas stock companies from the stock indices to remove the obvious direct linkage oil price series are converted into local currency to account for possible exchange rate effects the method of copula is used to model the general dependence between stock returns and oil price returns our findings suggest a weak dependence between oil prices and stock indices for most cases which are consistent with the results from previous studies exceptions are for the stock index returns of large oil consuming and producing countries united states and canada which are shown to have a relatively strong dependence with the oil price series the introduction of euro in 1999 altered considerably dependence between oil prices and stock returns

entropy structure and organisational change abstract the paper sets out a basis for rigorous thermodynamic characterisation of structural change and of organisational interdependencies between economic and environmental processes many attempts have been made to exploit entropy as a generic explanatory variable it has widely been proposed that entropy is a measure of the level of dis order of a system of how mixed up things are then as organisation is often thought synonymous with some notion of order it has been a small step to propose that increasing organisation is the converse of increasing entropy another suggestion has been that social system structure and change can be explained in terms of a tendency towards maximum entropy production the lotka principle of maximum energy dissipation all these notions must be rejected the putative entropy order connection has its inspiration in boltzmann s probabilistic interpretation of thermodynamic entropy as a measure of microscopic disorder this order principle is simply not applicable under conditions far from thermodynamic equilibrium prigogine conditions which prevail for all important economic and ecological processes under such conditions the relationship between entropy production and changes in structure or organisation is multi faceted and situation specific attempts to account for the specificity of societal activities in terms of a generic scalar measure of organisation or dissipation are largely after the fact and in no way do away with the need for analysis of institutional and ethical dimensions of human action in their own right when properly allied to institutional analysis however the far from equilibrium thermodynamics furnishes a rich impetus for a coevolutionary perspective in ecological economics with promise of incisive treatments of in particular issues of system environment codependency and of the time in determinacies of economy environmental change

energy price uncertainty energy intensity and firm investment this paper examines the effect of energy price uncertainty on firm level investment an error correction model of capital stock adjustment is estimated with data on u s manufacturing firms higher energy price uncertainty is found to make firms more cautious by reducing the responsiveness of investment to sales growth the result is robust to consideration of energy intensity by industry the effect is greater for high growth firms it must be emphasized that the direct effect of uncertainty is not estimated conditional variance of energy price is obtained from a garch model findings suggest that stability in energy prices would be conducive to greater stability in firm level investment

oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down an extension of hamilton s results in an important paper hamilton 1983 demonstrated a strong correlation between oil price changes and gross national product growth in u s data however his study pertained to a period in which all the large oil price movements were upward and thus it left unanswered the question whether the correlation persists in periods of price decline moreover the price variable he used was somewhat distorted by price controls in the 1970s this note investigates whether hamilton s results continue to hold when the sample is extended to include the recent oil market collapse and the oil price variable is corrected for the effects of price controls particular attention is given to the possibility of asymmetric responses to oil price increases and decreases as suggested in the structural employment literature loungani 1986 davis 1987 hamilton 1988 like hamilton i based my investigation on the gnp equation in sims s 1 980b six variable quarterly vector autoregressive model