occupational choice and the process of development this paper models economic development as a process of institutional transformation by focusing on the interplay between agents occupational decisions and the distribution of wealth because of capital market imperfections poor agents choose working for a wage over self employment and wealthy agents become entrepreneurs who monitor workers only with sufficient inequality however will there be employment contracts otherwise there is either subsistence or self employment thus in static equilibrium the occupational structure depends on distribution since the latter is itself endogenous we demonstrate the robustness of this result by extending the model dynamically and studying examples in which initial wealth distributions have long run effects in one case the economy develops either widespread cottage industry self employment or factory production employment contracts depending on the initial distribution in the other example it develops into prosperity or stagnation

china s carbon emissions trading overview challenges and future because china has emerged as the largest greenhouse gas ghg emitter in total annual emissions to accelerate the pace of ghg emission reduction in china is important to the success of global efforts in addressing climate change carbon trading is a market mechanism and key instrument in the mitigation of climate change this paper explores the policy process and development state to date of china s carbon trade market to understand the emergence and development of that market and to understand what barriers are hampering china s carbon trade market development to achieve this goal this paper introduces and analyzes china s status in the international market examines the factors driving carbon market launching by the chinese government and traces the development of mandatory carbon emission trading and voluntary emission trading it is argued that china s carbon trading market is confronted with challenges such as the absence of a functional carbon trading market inaccuracy of the quota allocation an imperfect trading mechanism and lagging legislation at the present stage shortcomings such as having no real time carbon price and dominated spot transactions differentiate china s trade market substantially from a functional system a quick market integration of china s carbon market appears remote it is suggested that specific measures be taken to promote the development of the chinese carbon trading market

measures to enhance the effectiveness of international climate agreements the case of border carbon adjustments abstract actions on climate change which are not supported by all countries are not very effective however full participation in a global climate treaty with meaningful emission reductions is difficult to achieve the non excludability of the public good mitigation provides an incentive to abstain from global action moreover carbon leakage renders it unattractive to join a treaty without full participation we study whether and under which conditions border carbon adjustments bcas can mitigate free riding and reduce carbon leakage in a simple strategic trade model we show that bcas can lead to large stable climate agreements including full participation associated with large global welfare gains if treaties do not restrict membership open membership as this is typical for environmental agreements we caution against restricting accession to treaties exclusive membership as this is typical for trade agreements which may serve individual but not global interests

the nexus between urbanization renewable energy trade and ecological footprint in asean countries abstract economic growth accompanied by rising energy demand in asean countries have been unprecedented over these few years on the other hand the energy consumed in the asean region is predominantly non renewable which could have implications for sustainable development previous studies that have investigated the energy growth environment nexus for this region are inefficient in terms of the proxies used to measure environmental quality and the estimation techniques adopted as such this study explores the influence of renewable and non renewable energy consumption economic growth and urbanization on a more reliable environmental indicator ecological footprint from 1990 to 2016 while controlling for trade first and second generation unit root and cointegration tests are applied amidst evidence of cross sectional dependence findings reveal that economic growth trade and non renewable energy contribute significantly to environmental degradation in asean countries this suggests that the region is growing at the expense of its environment while also indulging in emission intensive trade further findings show a one way causality from urbanization to non renewable energy consumption policy directions and implications of the findings for sustainability are discussed

causal relationships between public sector agricultural research expenditures and output allocative decisions concerning public sector agricultural research appear to be driven by both supply and politically mediated demand forces in sample granger tests along with post sample predictive tests suggest that simultaneity issues should not be ignored when modeling the research expenditure output relationship the results also provide strong evidence that the impact of research expenditures on agricultural output may persist for as long as thirty years these lags are substantially longer than those commonly used for agricultural research to date the lagged effect of output on research appears to be shorter though still between ten and twelve years in this article we analyze the empirical relationship between public sector agricultural research and agricultural output our interest in this question was spurred on two fronts first emphasis of the contemporary economic literature has shifted from an analysis of the consequences of technical change to an explanation of the observed rate and direction of inventive activity a substantial proportion of this literature has focused on appropriable technologies originating in the private sector and remained largely silent on related issues in the public sector here we analyze the dynamics of public sector research in particular publicly sponsored agricultural research in the

the economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty an asset based approach abstract longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty while a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty this paper develops an asset based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep rooted persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long term persistent structural poverty as well as relevant extensions of the popular foster greer thorbecke class of poverty measures the paper closes with reflections on how asset based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies

international air travel and greenhouse gas emissions a proposal for an adaptation levy greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation services have been increasing rapidly and are likely to continue to do so in the absence of major policy changes at the same time while all countries will experience impacts from climate change developing countries are the most vulnerable significant financial assistance for adaptation is therefore needed for developing countries but current proposals are inadequate solutions to the challenges of both aviation greenhouse gas emissions and climate change adaptation finance are thus urgently required this paper proposes an international air travel adaptation levy that addresses both problems

the changing climate of climate change economics climate change economics is now four decades old much of what it has achieved as a field of academic enquiry can be linked back to issues of integrated assessment modelling this paper shows that the standard approach is going through a major change in scope as of the last five years the conventional focus on determining optimal mitigation paths based on modelling the social cost of carbon is being enlarged to embrace promising new waves of research these are 1 the economics of insurance against catastrophic risks 2 the economics of trade and climate and 3 the economics of climate change adaptation the paper helps to bridge the gap between economics and climate policy by showing that the analytical toolkit of climate change economics has shifted towards more realistic representations of climatic policy

food beliefs and food supply chains the impact of religion and religiosity in israel abstract this paper demonstrates that religion and religiosity affect norms which affect food consumption patterns and production heterogeneity and asymmetric information lead to multiple certification channels as well as multiple supply chains major supply chains may address multiple constituencies that are secular or less religious technological change affects norms and thus the food system we obtain these results by analyzing the food systems for meat products in israel where there are three religions jews muslims and christians and people assign themselves three levels of religiosity secular conservative and orthodox israel has multiple kosher and halal certifiers and several specialized supermarket chains for orthodox groups its main supermarket chains serve secular and some conservative segments the immigration of secular jews from russia led to the proliferation of non kosher supply chains and products and increased consumption of pork new technologies and higher incomes led to emergence of fast food chains serving orthodox jews that had previously tended to eat at home

resistance to reform status quo bias in the presence of individual specific uncertainty comment why do governments so often fail to adopt policies which economists consider to be efficiency enhancing our answer to this question relies on uncertainty regarding the distribution of gains and losses from reform we show that there is a bias towards the status quo and hence against efficiency enhancing reforms whenever some of the individual gainers and losers from reform cannot be identified beforehand there are reforms which once adopted will receive adequate political support but would have failed to carry the day ex ante the argument does not rely on risk aversion irrationality or hysteresis due to sunk costs jel d72 f13 why do governments so often fail to adopt policies that economists consider to be efficiency enhancing this is one of the fundamental questions of political economy the answer usually relies on what may be

rethinking climate change governance and its relationship to the world trading system international climate negotiations have thus far eschewed efforts to incorporate trade restrictions but they have also failed to achieve their objective of reducing global emissions because of this failure some countries are now inclined to act unilaterally and minilaterally in many cases by imposing trade restrictions against third parties such actions are likely to invite retaliation they could even ignite an escalating trade war the best way to avoid such conflicts is not to limit the use of trade restrictions but to make international climate negotiations effective ironically success in addressing climate change multilaterally may require incorporating trade restrictions in a new kind of climate agreement trade restrictions have been used successfully in other international agreements but in these agreements the primary purpose of the restrictions has been to encourage participation that is their primary purpose has been to enforce the agreement this is the role trade restrictions ought to play in a new climate treaty but for them to play this role the design of climate treaties must change if climate treaties are designed strategically the threat to restrict trade will suffice to enforce the agreement and if the threat to restrict trade is credible and the punishment associated with the restriction severe trade restrictions will not actually have to be used by incorporating trade restrictions in this way greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced without putting at risk the gains from multilateral cooperation in trade

a review of recent multi region input output models used for consumption based emission and resource accounting abstract the interest in consumption based emission and resource accounting has grown significantly many studies juxtapose consumer emissions carbon footprint and producer territorial emissions of greenhouse gases in order to demonstrate the effects of trade on the national emission budget to this end a respectable number of studies have been undertaken worldwide in order to estimate emissions embedded in international trade of numerous countries and world regions input output approaches and increasingly multi region input output mrio models are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete carbon footprint estimates at the national and supra national level with increasing processing capabilities of computers and a wider availability of economic accounts environmental accounts and trade data such models are now being implemented on a wide scale after a brief overview of salient single region input output studies i provide an in depth review of the most recent multi region input output models used for the purpose of consumption based environmental accounting the main methodological features and important results are described for around twenty studies covering the years 2007 to 2009 this is followed by a detailed review of studies dealing with uncertainty in mrio analysis an area which has not received a lot of attention so far i conclude that further research is mainly needed in two areas a improvements in data availability and quality and b improvements in the accuracy of mrio modelling

border carbon adjustments addressing emissions embodied in trade approximately one fourth of global emissions are embodied in international trade and a significant portion flows from non carbon priced to carbon priced economies border carbon adjustments bcas figure prominently as instruments to address concerns arising from unilateral climate policy estimating the volume of emissions that could be potentially taxed under a bca scheme has received little attention until now this paper examines how a number of issues involved in the implementation of bcas can affect their ability to cover emissions embodied in trade and thus address carbon leakage these issues range from ensuring compliance with trade provisions and assumptions on the carbon intensity of imports to determining which countries are included and whether intermediate and final demand are considered here we show that the volume of co2 captured by a scheme that involved all annex b countries could be significantly reduced due to these issues particularly by trade provisions such as the principle of best available technology bat as a consequence the tariff burdens faced by non annex b parties could dwindle considerably these findings have important policy implications as they question the effectiveness and practicalities of bcas to reduce carbon leakage and alleviate competitiveness concerns adding further arguments against their implementation

border carbon adjustment and trade retaliation what would be the cost for the european union unilateral climate policy such as carbon pricing represents an additional cost to the economy especially to energy intensive industrial sectors as well as those exposed to international competition a border carbon adjustment bca is often presented as an attractive policy option for countries that wish to go ahead without waiting for a global climate agreement we used the computable general equilibrium model mirage to simulate the impact of the introduction of a bca on imports of energy intensive products in eu and efta countries and to evaluate the exports their main trade partners would lose given that a bca is a trade measure it might cause disputes at the world trade organization wto if the bca is considered illegal the losses suffered by some partners may justify trade retaliations at that point it would be likely that prohibitive retaliatory tariffs target sensitive products in the eu which are often related to the european agricultural sector these trade measures would limit the drop in production in the energy intensive and trade exposed eite sectors but at the expense of the other sectors nevertheless neither the bca nor retaliation would have sizeable impacts on real income or gdp in the eu or on the retaliators while leading to a small decrease in global emissions

permanent household income and consumption in urban south america milton friedman s permanent income hypothesis pih is considerably more complex and difficult to test than it appears at first sight which is why certain of its postulates still cannot be accepted or rejected with certainty one of the chief difficulties is that of separating the effects on consumption of permanent income which is unobservable and of various observable household characteristics which may be highly correlated with permanent income but may also be presumed to affect consumption directly this difficulty can be overcome provided a variable can be found which is associated with permanent income but has no independent direct effect on the propensity to consume if households are grouped by classes of that variable the permanent consumption propensity or elasticity can be estimated from mean income and consumption in the groups this technique requires the assumption of zero mean transitory income in each group but does not depend on the postulate that transitory income is uncorrelated with consumption for these reasons it cannot be applied to individual households this paper presents and estimates a model which separates the direct and indirect effects on consumption of a series of observable characteristics using regression techniques on individual household observations this makes it possible to estimate all the parameters of the model both the consumption propensity or elasticity and the contribution to permanent income of each observable explanatory variable the technique still requires that at least one of the explanatory variables affect consumption only through permanent income but for all other variables both direct and indirect influences can be estimated and the propensity to consume a given income can vary among households with different characteristics another principal problem with the pih is the assumption that transitory income and consumption are uncorrelated efforts to test this postulate can lead to very different results ranging from agreement with the hypothesis to findings of high propensities to consume transitory income see robert ferber pp 1306 09 this inconsistency and continued controversy over the hypothesis is due to the fact that permanent income cannot be estimated exactly but can be known only with an error which is conceptually distinct from transitory income empirical work on the pih has uniformly overlooked this fact treating estimates of permanent income as exact and regarding the whole of the unexplained residual as transitory income the present model explicitly distinguishes the estimation error from the error of transitory income or consumption the two transitory components can then be assumed to be uncorrelated while the part of permanent income which is not explained is consumed exactly like the explained part whether residual income and consumption appear to be correlated or not then depends on the relative sizes of these two components the unexplained permanent part and the true transitory part this technique has the further advantage that estimating the variance of the error of estimation makes it possible to tell how well a set of observable variables explain permanentincome this explanation may be better than the brookings institution robert solow richard eckaus and robert hall supervised the dissertation 1974 on which this article is based i am particularly grateful to ross williams and robert hall for help in specifying and estimating the model and to denisard alves for a crucial suggestion william cline irwin friend ricardo ffrench davis and robert ferber provided helpful comments on earlier versions subsequent discussions with surjit bhalla and robert lawrence have been most useful i am also much indebted to the managing editor and to a referee for improvements in the final version

social mobility and redistributive politics just like economists voters have conflicting views about redistributive taxation because they estimate its incentive costs differently we model rational agents as trying to learn from their dynastic income mobility experience the relative importance of effort and predetermined factors in the generation of income inequality and therefore the magnitude of these incentive costs in the long run left wing dynasties believing less in individual effort and voting for more redistribution coexist with right wing dynasties this allows us to explain why individual mobility experience and not only current income matters for political attiitudes and how persistent differences in perceptions about social mobility can generate persistent differences in redistribution across countries

consumption versus asset smoothing testing the implications of poverty trap theory in burkina faso abstract despite solid theoretical foundations for the notion that poor borrowing constrained households will intertemporally manage assets to smooth consumption the consumption smoothing hypothesis has not always withstood empirical scrutiny this paper reassesses the intertemporal asset management problem with a poverty trap model and shows that we would expect to see asset smoothing not consumption smoothing in the neighborhood of critical asset levels at which optimal accumulation behavior bifurcates we then employ threshold estimation techniques to empirically confirm the co existence of consumption and asset smoothing regimes using a household panel data set from west africa households above the estimated threshold almost completely insulate their consumption from weather shocks whereas those below the threshold do not these results not only indirectly provide evidence of the existence of poverty traps but also speak to the level and incidence of the costs of uninsured risk

the economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty empirical and policy implications the moral and economic imperatives to intervene in poverty traps motivate the identification of poverty traps and their structural causes so as to inform the design of appropriate policy responses however empirical identification remains challenging because of poverty traps complexity after reviewing mechanisms that can generate poverty traps we focus on one multiple financial market failures emphasising its heretofore underappreciated testable implications including specific behaviours that are rational only in the presence of a poverty trap we therefore recommend tests for these behaviours rather than more econometrically challenged efforts to directly test for poverty traps in estimated asset dynamics

asset smoothing consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints abstract a growing literature asks whether low wealth agents can accumulate assets over time or whether they are trapped in poverty this paper develops a stochastic dynamic programming model with endogenous asset price risk to explore savings and portfolio decisions in a resource poor environment characterized by risk and subsistence constraints optimal portfolio strategies are found to bifurcate despite divisible assets and fully rational agents wealthier agents acquire a higher yielding portfolio and pursue conventional consumption smoothing poorer agents acquire a less remunerative portfolio and pursue asset smoothing rather than consumption smoothing asset based risk coping thus results in positive correlation between initial wealth and portfolio rate of return

corruption and the costs of redistribution micro evidence from indonesia this paper examines the degree to which the corruption in developing countries may impair the ability of governments to redistribute wealth among their citizens specifically i examine a large antipoverty program in indonesia that distributed subsidized rice to poor households i estimate the extent of corruption in the program by comparing administrative data on the amount of rice distributed with survey data on the amount actually received by households the central estimates suggest that on average at least 18 of the rice appears to have disappeared ethnically heterogeneous and sparsely populated areas are more likely to be missing rice using conservative assumptions for the marginal cost of public funds i estimate that the welfare losses from this corruption may have been large enough to offset the potential welfare gains from the redistributive intent of the program these findings suggest that corruption may impose substantial limitations on developing countries redistributive efforts and may help explain the low level of transfer programs in developing countries d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

the age of electricity the age of electricity is coming driven by rapid technological change on the demand side the digitalization of many processes is leading to technologies that require electricity rather than liquid or solid fuels on the supply side renewable energy technologies provide electricity directly at falling cost electrification directly and indirectly e g using electricity to produce hydrogen fuel can aid the decarbonization of the economy strong climate policy would accelerate electrification the big question is when not if and the transition is not occurring anywhere near fast enough to meet the paris climate goals the immediate impact of the coming age of electricity is the transformation of electricity markets which need to adapt to near zero marginal costs and intermittency in the longer term the impact on fossil fuels will be radical fossil fuel prices will fall with demand and the oil and gas majors will either completely transform themselves or will harvest profits and exit

the influence of market demand upon innovation a critical review of some recent empirical studies abstract a number of recent empirical studies of technical change at the level of the individual firm have concluded that market demand is the dominant influence upon the innovation process calling forth innovations in market economies the pace of innovation in the private sector heavily influences the growth of national output and productivity and these studies and their conclusions have therefore received much attention having been extensively quoted in discussions of appropriate government policy for the encouragement of innovation this paper reviews a number of these studies and concludes that their findings and the interpretations of their findings in the secondary literature are seriously flawed and in many cases invalid the proposition that market demand governs the innovation process is by no means conclusively demonstrated in these studies and they are therefore inadequate and inappropriate guides for the formulation of policy most of the studies examined employ a working definition of demand factors which is so broad as to embrace a range of possible influences upon innovation which should more properly be classified elsewhere the concept of demand utilized in these studies bears little resemblance to the more restrictive and precise definition of market demand found in economics in addition the phenomena analyzed in these studies are a very heterogeneous lot the studies do not address identical empirical questions and their findings are as a result neither uniform nor unambiguous both demand and supply side influences are crucial to understanding the innovation process and it is the exclusive preoccupation with only one set of these forces which is criticized in this paper some implications of the criticism for government policy toward innovation are discussed in the conclusion

trade climate change and the political game theory of border carbon adjustments the lack of real progress at the durban climate change conference in 2011 postponing effective action until at least 2020 has many causes one of which is the failure to address trade issues and in particular carbon leakage this paper advances two arguments first it argues that the conventional view of border carbon adjustments bcas as a dirty trade barrier should be turned on its head rather the absence of a carbon price comprises an implicit subsidy to dirtier production in non regulated markets second bcas could act as a game changer when climate policy negotiations move at a glacial pace if at all materially stronger progress could be achieved indirectly from the threat of unilateral trade policies the paper shows how this could come about using a simple political game theory model the appropriate game form is one in which parties move unilaterally and sequentially given the failure to agree on a common course of action and are fully aware of the impacts of their actions the paper shows that properly crafted bcas could help reduce trade distortions limit the competiveness effects and help build a broader coalition of interests for more global actions

inequality income growth and mobility the basic facts during the 1950s and 1960s mean wages in the united states grew rapidly and the dispersion around this growing mean changed very litde starting in the 1970s and continuing into the 1980s and 1990s these patterns were reversed mean wages grew slowly and inequality increased rapidly these changes in labor markets were reflected in changes in the distribution of family income the mean of the distribution of family income did increase after 1973 in spite of the near constancy of mean real wages as family members increased the number of hours they worked however the increase in inequality of wages was mirrored by an increase in the dispersion of family income a large descriptive literature has documented the rise in inequality while a smaller behavioral literature has sought to delineate the causes of this rise these changes in the distribution of family income a fected rates of poverty directly during the 1950s and 1960s temporary increases in poverty during recessions were more than offset by declines in poverty during economic expansions as long as the poor gained along with everyone else fi om the secular growth in the mean one could be confident that poverty rates would ratchet down this is exactly what happened as poverty rates fell from 22 4 percent in 1959 to 11 1 percent in 1973

saving and liquidity constraints this paper is concerned with the theory of saving when consumers are not permitted to borrow and with the ability of such a theory to account for some of the stylized facts of saving behavior the models presented in the paper seem to account for important aspects of reality that are not explained by traditional life cycle models copyright 1991 by the econometric society

trade wars and trade talks when governments meet in the international arena their actions reflect the political situations at home previous studies of trade relations have focused on governments that are immune from political pressures and that act as benevolent servants of the public interest here we introduce domestic politics into the analysis of international economic relations we study the interactions between national leaders who are concerned both with providing a high standard of living to the general electorate and collecting campaign contributions from special interest groups our analysis sheds light on the determinants of the structure of protection in non cooperative and cooperative policy equilibria

recent progress of cooperation on climate mitigation a bibliometric analysis abstract effective international cooperation is an important measure to mitigate climate change the purpose of this study is to clarify the research progress in the field of cooperation on emission reduction identify the influential authors and articles and reveal the main research topics based on the bibliometric method and the web of science database this study analyzes the literature in the field of cooperation on emission reduction the results show that the publications in this field have increased significantly over the past decade with the usa and china are the most influential countries keyword co occurrence and frequency analysis show that the most important research topics are as follows burden sharing and equity the stability of the climate coalition and international environmental agreements technology transfer and climate finance the linkage of carbon markets and the response to noncooperation behavior the main methods involved are game theory model integrated assessment models and computable general equilibrium model equitable distribution of mitigation responsibilities is the basis for cooperation on carbon reduction specific rulebooks for carbon market linkage is the key to its successful implementation this study helps researchers to clarify the current research status in the field of cooperation on emission reduction and provide valuable information for future research

greenhouse gas emission controls and firm locations in north south trade this paper studies greenhouse gas emission ghg controls in the presence of international carbon leakage through international firm relocation in a new economic geography model with two countries north and south only north sets a target for ghg emissions we compare the consequences of emission quotas and emission taxes under trade liberalization on location of two manufacturing sectors with different emission intensities and degrees of carbon leakage with low trade costs further trade liberalization increases global emissions by facilitating carbon leakage regulation by quotas leads to spatial sorting resulting in less carbon leakage and less global emissions than regulation by taxes

social mobility and the demand for redistribution the poum hypothesis this paper examines the often stated idea that the poor do not support high levels of redistribution because of the hope that they or their offspring may make it up the income ladder this prospect of upward mobility poum hypothesis is shown to be fully compatible with rational expectations and fundamentally linked to concavity in the mobility process a steady state majority could even be simultaneously poorer than average in terms of current income and richer than average in terms of expected future incomes a e rst empirical assessment suggests on the other hand that in recent u s data the poum effect is probably dominated by the demand for social insurance in the future everyone will be world famous for e fteen minutes andy warhol 1968

inequality social insurance and redistribution is the political support for welfare policy higher or lower in less egalitarian societies we answer the question using a model of welfare policy as publicly financed insurance that pays benefits in a redistributive manner when voters have both redistributive and insurance motives for supporting welfare spending the effect of inequality depends on how benefits are targeted greater inequality increases support for welfare expenditures when benefits are targeted to the employed but decreases support when benefits are targeted to those without earnings with endogenous targeting support for benefits to those without earnings declines as inequality increases whereas support for aggregate spending is a v shaped function of inequality statistical analysis of welfare expenditures in advanced industrial societies provides support for key empirical implications of the model

climate change policy market structure and carbon leakage abstract the 1997 kyoto protocol on climate change obliges the industrialized countries to initiate the international effort of abating anthropogenic greenhouse gas ghg emissions if such an initiative is to be taken the associated competitive effects may lead to significant relocation of developed countries energy intensive production this paper examines this issue i adopt an oligopolistic structure combined with increasing returns to scale production technologies to represent the strategic interaction among the firms producing energy intensive products this representation is then embedded within a multi regional computable general equilibrium model which in turn is used for quantifying these relocational effects the results suggest that significant relocation of energy intensive industries away from the oecd may occur depending on the type of market structure with leakage rates as high as 130 in which case ghg control policies in the industrialized countries actually lead to higher global emissions

the economic analysis of biodiversity an assessment biodiversity is complex difficult to define difficult to measure and often involves international and intergenerational considerations biodiversity loss presents significant economic challenges a great deal of economics is required to understand the issues but a simple and important observation is that most species and ecosystems are not traded in markets so prices are often absent and biodiversity is under provided despite the formidable obstacles to high quality economic analysis economics has plenty to offer to biodiversity policy first economic valuation techniques can be employed to roughly estimate the value of the benefits provided by biodiversity and ecosystems second assessing the optimum amount of biodiversity involves recognizing that the conversion of natural capital into manufactured and human capital has so far generated vast amounts of wealth while there may have been too much biodiversity in the past economic analysis suggests that this is a difficult position to hold now third econometric techniques and carefully designed policy studies can assist in determining what policies are most suited to different contexts to cost effectively reduce biodiversity loss fourth political economy is helpful because international coordination is often required ecosystems do not respect national borders and many biodiverse ecosystems are in poorer countries this paper synthesizes the issues and proposes a research agenda which includes improving the measurement and accounting of natural capital improving valuation techniques and theory to provide greater guidance as to the optimum biodiversity and developing our understanding of the merits of different alternatives for government intervention to reduce biodiversity loss

the european framework for energy and climate policies european energy and climate change policy rests on two main pillars the internal energy market iem and the climate change package ccp the iem aimed at third party access and unbundling neglecting the physical infrastructure and the basis for asset valuations and hence the harmonisation of network charges the commission plans to complete the iem by 2014 almost a quarter of a century after embarking on the policy yet even if all the iem directives are implemented the eu will remain far from a single competitive market the ccp was grounded on short term targets the 2020 20 20 programme on the assumption that fossil fuel prices would rise making renewables competitive and hence yielding a competitive advantage to the eu the euets was intended to lead the way to a global trading system and an international agreement at copenhagen the eu has reduced the production of carbon emissions but only as a result of de industrialisation and slow growth and at the expense of rising carbon consumption renewables have not led to green growth but rather to a further eroding of competitiveness the euets price has collapsed in order for the eu to put the iem and the ccp back on track both need to be radically reconsidered the iem requires a refocusing on physical infrastructure common accounting rules and an eu wide approach to capacity markets and renewables trading the ccp requires a refocusing on carbon consumption on limiting the dash for coal and on future rather than current renewables

searching for good policies policymaking is hard policymakers typically have imperfect information about which policies produce which outcomes and they are left with little choice but to fumble their way through the policy space via a trial and error process this raises a question at the heart of democracy do democratic systems identify good policies to answer this question i introduce a novel model of policymaking in complex environments i show that good policies are often but not always found and i identify the possibility of policymaking getting stuck at outcomes that are arbitrarily bad notably policy stickiness occurs in the model even in the absence of institutional constraints this raises the question of how institutions and the political environment impact experimentation and learning i show how a simple political friction uncertainty over voter preferences interacts with political competition and policy uncertainty in a subtle way that surprisingly improves the quality of policymaking over time

targeted carbon tax reforms abstract in the presence of intersectoral linkages sector specific carbon tax changes can have complex general equilibrium effects in particular a carbon tax on the emissions of a sector can lead to an increase in aggregate emissions we analytically characterise how incremental taxes on the emissions of any set of sectors affect aggregate emissions we show that carbon tax reforms that target sectors based on their position in the production network can achieve a greater reduction in aggregate emissions than reforms that target sectors based on their direct emissions alone we illustrate the effects of carbon tax reforms by calibrating our intersectoral network model to the economies of two countries

the environmental impacts of the coronavirus the covid 19 coronavirus pandemic has resulted in global lockdowns sharply curtailing economic activity it is a unique experiment with substantial impacts that will form the agenda for research there are five sets of questions the short term impacts on emissions the natural environment and environmental policy including regulations and cop26 longer term consequences from the deployment of macroeconomic monetary and fiscal stimuli and investment in green deals possible further deglobalisation and its impact on climate change and nature intergenerational environmental impacts including debt and pollution burdens on future generations and possible behavioural changes to the environment both positive and negative

exploring poverty traps and social exclusion in south africa using qualitative and quantitative data abstract recent theoretical work hypothesises that a polarised society like south africa will suffer a legacy of ineffective social capital and blocked pathways of upward mobility that leaves large numbers of people trapped in poverty to explore these ideas this paper employs a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods novel econometric analysis of asset dynamics over the 1993 98 period identifies a dynamic asset poverty threshold that signals that large numbers of south africans are indeed trapped without a pathway out of poverty qualitative analysis of this period and the period 1998 2001 more deeply examines patterns of mobility and confirms the continuation of this pattern of limited upward mobility and a low level poverty trap in addition the qualitative data permit a closer look at the specific role played by social relationships while finding ample evidence of active social capital and networks these are more helpful for non poor households for the poor social capital at best helps sta

the changing incidence and severity of poverty spells among female headed families policy reforms and labor market changes over the 1990s had a profound effect on families headed by single women federal welfare reform passed in 1996 pushed many more women into the labor force while expansions in the earned income tax credit increased their economic returns to work a booming economy helped assure that jobs were available earnings and income among single mothers rose while poverty rates declined by 2000 the poverty rate among families headed by single women had fallen to 25 percent far below the 33 percent rate at the start of the 1990s while these trends are widely viewed as good news conventional measures of income and poverty based on annual averages can be misleading if jobs and earnings become more unstable or public assistance less accessible then the within year variability in income will rise potentially offsetting the gains in average income indeed a recent study by christopher bollinger and james p ziliak 2007 suggests that income volatility has increased among single mother families since the mid 1990s this paper looks at the changing incidence and severity of poverty spells among adult women focusing mainly on single mothers between the early 1990s and the early 2000s we are particularly concerned with differences between black and white women since there is evidence that black women have not gained as much in the years following welfare reform andrew cherlin et al 2007 we use data from the 1990 and 2001 surveys of income and program participation sipp the sipp collects detailed monthly data on earnings and nonlabor income enabling us to measure the incidence and duration of poverty spells at a very the changing incidence and severity of poverty spells among female headed families

measuring progress towards carbon reduction in the uk the uk climate change bill proposes to establish legally binding targets for a 60 reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 this paper discusses the challenges posed by measuring progress towards this target it takes as a premise that the conventional productionbased accounting framework enshrined in the unfccc emissions accounting guidelines is inappropriate for this task because it fails to account for the carbon traded across the uk national boundary accordingly it sets out a consumption based accounting framework using a two region environmental input output eio model which could in principle measure progress in reducing the emissions attributable to final consumers in the uk it illustrates the use of this framework to measure the reduction in carbon dioxide achieved by the uk between 1990 the kyoto base year and the year 2004 and compares this against the production perspective the results indicate that any progress towards the uk s carbon reduction targets visible under a production perspective disappears completely when viewed from a consumption perspective but the robustness of this conclusion depends critically on the accuracy of underlying economic and environmental data sets as well as specific assumptions concerning imports by analysing the consistency of uk input output data we conclude that eio is still some way from being able to answer the critical question of the carbon trade balance for the uk in these circumstances measuring real progress towards carbon reduction in the uk remains elusive

emission intensive growth and trade in the era of the association of southeast asian nations asean integration an empirical investigation from asean 8 abstract this paper attempts to shed some light on the energy consumption and associated emissions linking recent trade integration for eight economies in the asean region brunei darussalam cambodia indonesia malaysia philippines singapore thailand and vietnam considering the heterogeneity across the panel of countries a long run relationship is established between output energy trade and emissions over a period of three decades the role of transportation is considered in this respect the overall findings indicate that the environmental consequences of economic growth are alarming for most of the countries in the panel and non renewable energy consumption is the key contributing factor towards environmental deterioration in the asean region of the eight it is further established that five economies from the region cambodia indonesia malaysia thailand and vietnam predominantly engage in emission intensive trade and an increase in future energy demand and environmental degradation is projected for these countries we suggest that the implementation of economic and trade policies in future should align with the energy sector in this respect renewable energy sources will play a greater role in sustainable growth and development across the countries

learning about the prospects for mobility economic and political dynamics following fundamental policy reform abstract the political left turn in latin america which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior this paper generalizes the forward looking voter model to a broad range of dynamic possibly non concave income processes under full information the model implies support for redistributive policies materializes rapidly if few prospects of upward mobility are present in contrast modeling voters evolving beliefs about an unknown income dynamic process shows a slow and polarizing shift toward redistributive preferences simulation using fitted income dynamics suggests that this imperfect information perspective accounts for latin america s right to left political shift and offers additional insights about political dynamics in the face of economic polarization

stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among a poor population we use herd history data collected among pastoralists in southern ethiopia to study stochastic wealth dynamics among a poor population although covariate rainfall shocks plainly matter household specific factors including own herd size account for most observed variability in wealth dynamics we find no support for the tragedy of the commons hypothesis past studies may have conflated costly self insurance with stocking rate externalities biophysical shocks move households between multiple dynamic wealth equilibria the lowest suggesting a poverty trap according to nonconvex path dynamics these findings have broad implications for development and relief strategies among a poor population vulnerable to climatic shocks a vast economic literature on risk management rests explicitly or implicitly on the classic friedmanite permanent income hypothesis studies of portfolio management consumption smoothing social insurance and the like all depend on the canonical assumption that stochastic income realisations are drawn from a stationary income distribution leading to consumption smoothing off a stable asset base the possibility of asset accumulation connects this literature to the immense literature on the theory and empirics of economic growth

the roles of science in technological innovation abstract one of the central issues in science policy during the past decade has been the extent to which the national levels of expenditure on scientific education and research influence the standard of living this paper provides empirical evidence to show that the pay off from this investment in science is more complex and indirect than previously supposed

social preferences self interest and the demand for redistribution preferences for redistribution may be influenced by values and beliefs about distributive justice as well as by self interest people may prefer more redistribution to the poor if they believe that poverty is caused by circumstances beyond individual control therefore beliefs about the causes of income may affect demand for redistribution alternatively the effect of these beliefs on redistributive preferences may be spurious if they are correlated with income and self interest is not properly controlled for they may also measure incentive cost concerns using social survey data i find that self interest cannot explain the effect of these beliefs on redistributive preferences 2001 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the cost of energy review and its implementation the cost of energy review recommended that in the face of radical technical change government should move towards an equivalent firm power capacity auction integrating the renewables establish independent public system operators at the national and regional levels and move towards an economy wide carbon price these have met resistance from vested interests in defence of the economic rents that have accumulated from the dense web of interventions that have accumulated the paper shows that the first two of these reforms are nevertheless inevitable with active demand storage and decentralized generation technologies inverting the old assumptions of passive demand no storage and ever larger scale generation that have underpinned the electricity industry for the past century delay in implementation means continued excess costs of energy and delays innovation

product oriented climate policy learning from the past to shape the future abstract product oriented climate policies such as labels financial incentives and emission standards for vehicles and buildings have achieved considerable reductions in emissions and triggered innovations that offer very low emissions during the use phase in contrast to other climate policy instruments these policies are successfully applied in an increasing number of regions however a major proportion of global emissions namely those from industry remain outside the scope of most current forms of product oriented climate policies all economic activities could be included by extending product oriented policies to embodied emissions i e emissions resulting from manufacturing products to guide such a development we need a better understanding of the current state and potential future development of this policy approach therefore in this paper we review and evaluate policy evolution over the past decade in terms of both measures implemented and emissions addressed on this basis we synthesize a framework for developing policy towards greater stringency and broader scope the framework describes a step wise process to achieve increasingly stringent standards once established standards can extend their scope to include additional similar products and related embodied emissions our framework and policy review informs the reinforcement and extensions of current product oriented climate policies a relevant implication for international climate policy is that the regional adoption of such policies incentivizes the global diffusion of low ghg products international climate policy can foster this development by supporting the harmonization of carbon footprint norms for products in order to enhance conformity with international trade and facilitate the extension of product oriented climate policy to embodied emissions

distributive politics and economic growth a crude distinction between economics and politics would be that economics is concerned with expanding the pie while politics is about distributing it in this paper we analyze the relationship between the two we focus on how an economy s initial configuration of resources shapes the political struggle for income and wealth distribution and how that in turn affects long run growth our main conclusion is that inequality is conducive to the adoption of growth retarding policies we derive this result from a simple political economy model of growth and present cross country evidence consistent with it the key feature of our model is that individuals differ in their relative factor endowments we distinguish between two types of factors an accumulated factor called capital and a nonaccumulated factor called labor growth is driven by the expansion of the capital stock which is in turn determined by individual saving decisions long run growth is endogenous as the aggregate production function is taken to be linearly homogeneous in capital and productive government services taken together the provision of government services is financed by a tax on capital because government services are productive a small tax on

demand side vs supply side technology policies hidden treatment and new empirical evidence on the policy mix this paper provides new empirical evidence about the impact of various technological policies upon firms innovative behaviour we take into consideration the role of policies for innovative activities and we focus on their interaction while supply side policies such as r d subsidies and tax credits have been both extensively discussed in the literature and empirically investigated the analysis of innovative public procurement is a growing trend in the literature which still lacks robust empirical evidence in this paper we replicate the existing results on supply side policies surmise fresh empirical evidence on the outcome of innovative public procurement and address the issue of possible interaction among the various tools when controlling for the interaction with other policies supply side subsidies cease to be as effective as reported in previous studies and innovative public procurement seems to be more effective than other tools the preliminary evidence suggests that technology policies exert the highest impact when different policies interact

crisis era protectionism and the multilateral governance of trade an assessment this paper examines the multilateral governance of trade along with the prospects for its meaningful reform in the light of recent crisis era discrimination against the many types of cross border commerce prior episodes of protectionism provide a useful benchmark the findings are not optimistic the current set of multilateral rules is incomplete has weak incentives for compliance and can be readily circumvented only a far reaching revision of these rules could induce more restraint

earnings mobility and measurement error a pseudo panel approach the degree of mobility in incomes is often seen as an important measure of the equality of opportunity in a society and of the flexibility and freedom of its labor market but estimation of mobility using panel data is biased by the presence of measurement error and non random attrition from the panel this paper shows that dynamic pseudo panel methods can be used to consistently estimate measures of absolute and conditional mobility in the presence of non classical measurement errors these methods are applied to data on earnings from a mexican quarterly rotating panel absolute mobility in earnings is found to be very low in mexico suggesting that the high level of inequality found in the cross section will persist over time however the paper finds conditional mobility to be high so that households are able to recover quickly from earnings shocks these findings suggest a role for policies which address underlying inequalities in earnings opportunities