unanticipated aggregate disturbances and tests of the life cycle consumption model several recent studies have used data on food consumption from the panel study of income dynamics psid to test t he rational expectations life cycle hypothesis against the alternative of prevalent liquidity constraints these tests invoke the rational expectations restriction that income forecast errors are independent of lagged information this restriction however applies only in a time series context it is possible that unanticipated macroeconomic disturbances cause forecast errors to be correlated with lagged information in a cross section of families the authors present evidence of such a correlation in the psid data show that this correlation biases previous tests of the life cycle model toward rejection and derive a proper test of the life cycle model using pa nel data copyright 1993 by mit press

consumption of durable goods and tests of the permanent income hypothesis evidence from korean macro data quarterly aggregate data from korean urban households is used to test the restrictions on the vector autoregressive var representation of the permanent income hypothesis pih in testing these restrictions an alternative consumption measure is proposed which takes account of the flow of services from durable goods for comparison two commonly used measures total consumption expenditures and expenditures on non durables and services are also employed in the empirical analysis and the results show that the choice of consumption measures could have a significant effect on the results of the tests leading to a false conclusion with the improper consumption variables

micro data heterogeneity and the evaluation of public policy nobel lecture this paper summarizes the contributions of microeconometrics to economic knowledge four main themes are developed 1 microeconometricians developed new tools to respond to econometric problems raised by the analysis of the new sources of micro data produced after the second world war 2 microeconometrics improved on aggregate time series methods by building models that linked economic models for individuals to data on individual behavior 3 an important empirical regularity detected by the field is the diversity and heterogeneity of behavior this heterogeneity has profound consequences for economic theory and for econometric practice 4 microeconometrics has contributed substantially to the scientific evaluation of public policy

consumer response to the reagan tax cuts abstract this paper uses micro data from the consumer expenditure survey to estimate the response of household consumption to the second and third phases of the reagan tax cuts since these phases were pre announced they allow for an unusually clean test of the canonical life cycle permanent income model consumption is found to be excessively sensitive to the tax cuts counter to the model liquidity constraints and other standard explanations do not appear to explain this excess sensitivity the consumption response is larger than previously estimated for tax refunds and more concentrated in nondurables these differences have important implications for the structure of tax changes in particular for choosing between varying withholding rates versus varying lumpy final tax payments and refunds

testing the response of consumption to income changes with noisy panel data this paper tests the rational expectations lifecycle model of consumption against i a keynesian model and ii the rational expectations lifecycle model with imperfect capital markets the tests are based upon the relative responsiveness of consumption to income changes that can be predicted from past information and income changes that cannot he predicted the tests allow for measurement error in income the results reject the keynesian model and generally support the lifecycle model but the results are not sufficiently precise to rule out the possibility that some households are liquidity constrained measurement error has a strong influence on the relationship between consumption and income

explaining the university run enterprises in china a theoretical framework for university industry relationship in developing countries and its application to china this paper explains and evaluates the evolution of the ures university run enterprises in china by building a new theoretical framework on the university industry relationship unlike the triple helix or the new economics of science that advocates a certain type integration or separation of university industry relationship we take a contingent or context specific perspective on the relationship having the context of developing countries in mind the framework developed in this paper explains in what condition universities would keep distance from industry or become entrepreneurial to take a part in the functions of industry i e setting up and running their own business enterprises in this typology the basic determinants are internal resources of university absorptive capacity of industrial firms and existence of intermediary institutions as well as the propensity of university for ures the paper has argued that the chinese universities since the market oriented reform had strong propensity to pursue economic gains and strong internal r d and other resources to launch start ups and thus established their own firms i e ures given the low absorptive capacity of industrial firms and the underdeveloped intermediary institutions the recent adjustment of the ures in china can also be understood in terms of changes in the above three factors such as universities weakened propensity to pursue economic gains relative decline of superiority of university resources and improved external environment

strategy research governance and competence perspectives business strategy is a complex subject and is usefully examined from several perspectives this paper applies the lenses of governance and competence to the study of strategy both the governance and the competence perspectives have had the benefit of distinguished antecedents they have also had to deal with tautological reputations i begin with the governance perspective with emphasis on the six key moves through which it has been operationalized i then examine the competence perspective in these same six respects governance challenges the competence perspective to apply itself more assiduously to operationalization including the need to choose and give definition to one or more units of analysis of which the routine is a promising candidate the research challenges posed by competence to which governance can and should respond include dynamic transaction costs learning and the need to push beyond generic governance to address strategy issues faced by particular firms with their distinctive strengths and disabilities a lively research future for these two perspectives individually and in combination is projected copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd business strategy is an expansive enterprise not only do all of the functional areas in the business school relate but strategy is by nature interdisciplinary all of the social sciences especially economics and organization theory plus contract law are implicated indeed in the high technology arena where some of the most difficult strategy issues reside engineering and the law on intellectual property rights also have a bearing of the various approaches to the study of strategy this paper focuses on the governance and competence perspectives both perspectives combine economic reasoning with organization theory as between these two the governance

durability and tests of the permanent income hypothesis using partially disaggregated consumption data since goods classified as non durable may in fact have a durable component random walk tests of the permanent income hypothesis using non durable data series may yield incorrect results this paper investigates this problem by first simulating a model of consumption to show the effects of durability on statistical tests of non durable consumption models and then by applying these tests to various disaggregated consumption series to determine the effect in practice the paper finds that there are significant differences in the behaviour of the series within the non durables and services catagories and that these differences may be related to durability the effect of this on standard tests of consumption is discussed

using subjective income expectations to test for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth abstract we test for precautionary saving and excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth using a 1989 1993 panel survey of italian households that has measures of subjective income and inflation expectations these expectations provide a powerful instrument for predicting income growth the empirical specification controls for predictable changes in labor supply and allows a fairly general specification for the stochastic structure of the forecast error we find that consumption growth is positively correlated with the expected variance of income and uncorrelated with predicted income growth overall the results support the precautionary saving model

testing for liquidity constraints in euler equations with complementary data sources previous tests for liquidity constraints using consumption euler equations have frequently split the sample on the basis of wealth arguing that low wealth consumers are more likely to be constrained we propose alternative tests using different and more direct information on borrowing constraints obtained from the 1983 survey of consumer finances in a first stage we estimate probabilities of being constrained which are then utilized in a second sample the panel study of income dynamics to estimate switching regression models of the euler equation our estimates indicate stronger excess sensitivity associated with the possibility of liquidity constraints than the sample splitting approach

the response of expenditures to anticipated income changes panel data estimates standard models of intertemporal allocation predict that the time path of expenditures should be independent of the time path of income recently two papers parker 1999 and souleles 1999 have suggested that u s households have a high marginal propensity to spend within year anticipated income changes we use an expenditure survey panel from spain to re examine this issue we exploit two important features of the spanish data first we have quarterly panel data that follows households for more than four quarters second we use the fact that workers are exogenously sorted into one of two payment schemes some receive the same amount each month of the year and others receive an extra payment in june and december the extra payment is large and predictable we examine the detailed pattern of expenditures over the year to see whether they differ between the two groups we fail to find even weak differences we complement this with a conventional euler equation analysis of excess sensitivity our predicting equation for quarterly earnings growth is much better than usual and is likely to give a powerful test of the hypothesis that predictable changes in income do not lead to changes in expenditure patterns the results of this analysis confirm the graphical analysis we find no evidence of excess sensitivity we conclude that households in normal times do smooth consumption over the year we suggest a reconciliation of our results with those of parker and souleles

sensitivity of tests of the pih to alternative consumption proxies abstract this note compares tests of the permanent income hypothesis when alternative proxies for consumption are utilized while the results appear to be sensitive to the proxy of consumption j tests show no significant difference between the alternative models

does the choice of consumption measure matter an application to the permanent income hypothesis abstract food consumption in the panel study of income dynamics is used as a proxy for total consumption in many applications in economics including tests of the permanent income hypothesis tests of separability between consumption and leisure and tests of intergenerational altruism food however explains only a small fraction of the variation in total consumption i propose a measure of composite consumption based on predicted wealth and compare it both to food consumption and to skinner s 1987 measure of predicted consumption in a test of the permanent income hypothesis using a log linear intertemporal consumption function i find that food does not reject the permanent income hypothesis but both skinner s predicted consumption and the composite measure proposed here to reject the hypothesis

the permanent income hypothesis estimation and testing by instrumental variables the permanent income hypothesis with rational expectation is restated estimated and tested by an instrumental variables technique on the postwar u s aggregate time series data the hypothesis is accepted on a consumption series which includes service flows from consumer durables if the consumption series is the one in the national income and product accounts the hypothesis is decisively rejected an explanation is suggested to reconcile the conflicting test results

the permanent income hypothesis consumption euler relations are estimated with data from the 1986 1991 us consumer expenditure survey without creating a synthetic panel the stochastic implications of the permanent income hypothesis generally are not rejected and there is little evidence of liquidity constrained or rule of thumb behavior the results are robust with respect to consumption category changes in sample and choice of instruments 1999 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

the reaction of household consumption to predictable changes in social security taxes the key implication of rational expectations and the basic life cycle permanent income hypothesis that predictable changes in income have no effect on the growth rate of consumption expenditures is examined this implication is important for understanding the effectiveness and optimal timing of fiscal policy the causes and propagation of business cycles and the effects of income fluctuations on the growth rate of the economy using household level consumption data from the consumer expenditure survey whether expenditures on nondurable goods increase contemporaneously with predictable changes in social security tax withholding is tested it is found that households do change their consumption expenditures in response to the predictable fluctuations in income induced by the social security tax system

trade wars trade negotiations and applied game theory what is the value of trade negotiations quantitative measures of the value of trade liberalisation generally ignore the strategic aspects of protection policy the traditional approach is to compare welfare levels under the existing structure of protection with welfare levels under some alternative structure of protection such as unilateral or multilateral free trade we add two additional questions first in a non cooperative context are either of these points of comparison consistent with countries adopting best response policies given the policies of other countries second in the context of a cooperative negotiation are either of these points of comparison consistent with the outcome that meets certain plausible criteria for a bargaining process if the answer to either of these questions is no then the traditional approach provides at best an incomplete answer to the original question and could provide a misleading answer a simple example illustrates our basic point consider the game in table i this is a non cooperative game between the united states and ec in which each agent has just two pure strategies to do nothing and keep k the existing structure of protection in place or to abolish a trade barriers on imports from the other agent only the payoffs shown are the annual welfare impact relative to the status quo as measured by the equivalent variation ev in income in billions of i973 u s dollars the values shown are taken from the simulation results of brown and whalley i980 table i 4 p 864 what is the best response of the united states in this context if the ec decides to keep its protection structure the united states does better by also keeping its protection structure intact in other words given that the ec plays k it is a best response for the united states to also play k thus the traditional approach would imply that the united states gains from protection in this case however what is the best response of the united states if the ec decides to abolish its protection structure in this instance the united states does best by also abolishing its protection structure the point here is simply that the welfare cost of protection to the united states depends on what the ec does without saying something about what the ec will do one cannot answer our question vis a vis the united states as it happens in this particular game we

consumption and income seasonality in thailand many households in developing countries rely on seasonal agriculture for their incomes this paper investigates whether household consumption expenditure tracks income across seasons using data from thailand i contrast the seasonal consumption patterns of households with different seasonal income patterns and estimate the responsiveness of seasonal consumption to seasonal income i find little evidence that consumption tracks income over the course of the year the findings suggest that observed seasonal consumption patterns are the result of seasonal variations in preferences or prices common to all households rather than an inability of households to use savings behavior to smooth consumption

do consumers react to anticipated income changes evidence from the alaska permanent fund a central implication of the life cycle permanentincome hypothesis lc pih is that consumers should not respond to predictable changes in their income to test this hypothesis a number of recent papers have exploited natural experiments to identify anticipated income changes in particular recent work by parker 1999 uses the change in after tax income due to the cap on earnings subject to the social security tax and a related paper by souleles 1999 examines the response of consumption to income tax refunds surprisingly parker and souleles find that even when income is expected to change within the year expenditure is excessively sensitive to the timing of the income change while their results can be interpreted as evidence that our canonical model of consumption is inadequate an alternative explanation is that the anticipated income changes they exploit are small and irregular and that households will not bother to change their consumption paths when the computational costs involved are large relative to the utility gains in support of this interpretation browning and collado 2001 find that the seasonal consumption patterns of spanish households that work in sectors that provide regular bonus payments do not differ from those of households that do not receive bonus payments this paper adds to this evidence by exploiting a natural experiment provided by annual payments from the state of alaska s permanent fund to every resident in the state of alaska that should yield an unusually powerful test of the lc pih these payments are large and clearly anticipated by alaskan residents using the variation in the size of the payments over time and in the amount received by families of different sizes to identify the response of consumption to payments from the permanent fund i find no evidence that the consumption of alaskan households reacts to these payments in addition i find no evidence that the seasonal pattern of consumption in alaska differs from that in the other 49 states or that households in alaska are subject to fewer liquidity constraints engage in less buffer stock saving or spend a smaller fraction of their income on semidurable goods than households in the rest of the united states however although households in alaska do not overreact to payments from the permanent fund i find that the consumption of the very same households is excessively sensitive to their income tax refunds this evidence suggest that households will take anticipated income changes into account in their consumption decisions when the income changes are large regular and easy to predict but will not do so when they are small and irregular the paper proceeds as follows the next section of the paper presents details on the department of economics princeton university princeton nj 08544 and national bureau of economic research e mail chsieh princeton edu i am very grateful to the bureau of labor statistics bls for providing access to the data from the consumer expenditure survey and to its staff particularly steven henderson walter vandeheide and wolf weber for their generous assistance during my visits to the bls i also thank nanci jones for providing data and patiently answering questions on the operation of the alaska permanent fund anne case angus deaton jonathan parker and two referees provided useful comments the views expressed in this paper are personal and should not be attributed to the bls 1 i refer to the certainty equivalent version of the lc pih or one in which the expected variance of consumption is constant as is well known without these assumptions the lc pih only implies smoothing of marginal utility not necessarily of consumption 2 see christina h paxson 1992 john shea 1995 jonathan a parker 1999 nicholas s souleles 1999 martin browning and m dolores collado 2001 also see ronald a bodkin 1959 for an early example of the use of a natural experiment to test for excess sensitivity for comprehensive reviews of the large literature on empirical tests of the lc pih see angus deaton 1992 browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 and browning and thomas f crossley 2001 3 in 1998 for example the permanent fund paid 1 541 to every resident of the state of alaska

who is credit constrained in the u s economy an important assumption of the life cycle model of consumption is the postulate of perfect capital markets this hypothesis has recently been challenged by substantial empirical evidence hall and mishkin 1982 using the panel study of income dynamics estimate that 20 percent of united states families are liquidity constrained mariger 1986 derives a life cycle model with endogenous liquidity constraints and using a cross section estimates this fraction to be 19 4 percent hubbard and judd 1986 simulate a model with a constraint on net worth which shows that with reasonable assumptions about preferences 19 0 percent of united states consumers are liquidity constrained the emerging consensus points therefore to a fraction of approximately 20 percent of the population behaving in a manner that is inconsistent with the pure life cycle model in addition hayashi 1985 and zeldes 1989 investigate the correlation among consumption wealth and income for various population groups and infer that liquidity constraints are more important for younger families with low levels of wealth and saving the main limitation of these studies is that in their data sets constrained consumers are not observable and have to be identified via indirect evidence thus there is as yet little firm evidence about the characteristics of the consumers who are likely to be credit constrained this paper adopts an approach that differs from previous tests for liquidity constraints because it makes use of data where constrained consumers are observable and explicitly links their existence to credit market imperfections and personal characteristics the data drawn from the 1983 survey of consumer finances scf and described in section ii provide information on individuals whose request for credit has been rejected by financial intermediaries in section iii a model is developed in which consumers and lenders behavior jointly determines the probability that a consumer is rationed in the credit market this probability is then

union contracts and the life cycle permanent income hypothesis this paper isolates households in the psid whose heads can be matched to particular long term union contracts with high confidence the author uses use published information on these contracts to construct a household specific measure of expected wage growth he finds that predictable wage movements are significantly correlated with consumption changes contrary to neoclassical consumption theory the author finds that consumption responds more strongly to predictable income declines than to predictable income increases this asymmetry is inconsistent with liquidity constraints and myopia but is qualitatively consistent with models in which preferences exhibit loss aversion copyright 1995 by american economic association

state led technological development a case of china s nanotechnology development summary we analyze nanotechnology patent applications filed in china from 1998 to 2008 and find that the extraordinary pace of nanotechnology development achieved over that period has been promoted primarily by the public sector rather than being driven by industry and market forces this finding implies that developing countries such as china with public research capacity and commitment to technological development can make rapid progress in basic research in emerging technologies but it remains uncertain whether and when local industry can benefit from public r d investment enough to enable active development of indigenous innovation

knowledge diffusion market segmentation and technological catch up the case of the telecommunication industry in china abstract this paper examines the growth of technological capability in the telecommunication industry in china we apply a modified version of lee and lim s lee k lim c 2001 the technological regimes catch up and leapfrogging findings from the korean industries research policy vol 30 model of technological learning and catching up using the three cases of the shanghai bell the cit led r d consortium and indigenous companies such as huawei we analyze how the catching up in the telecommunication industry occurred we find that the important factors in the catch up are the strategy of trading market for technology the knowledge diffusion from shanghai bell both to the r d consortium and to huawei and industrial promotion by the government as a condition for successful catch up the paper points out that the technological regime of the telephone switches is featured by a more predictable technological trajectory and a lower cumulativeness these conditions and strategies helped the chinese firms to achieve a stage skipping catch up namely by skipping the stage of analogue electronic switches to jump to digital electronic switches

tax policy and consumer spending evidence from japanese fiscal experiments abstract this paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes to discriminate between them we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation we find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes we also find that more than 80 percent of japanese consumers including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes respond to tax changes at the time of their implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement we suggest an interpretation that these consumers follow a near rational decision rule

are consumers forward looking evidence from fiscal experiments how changes in current and future income affect consumer spending is a perennial question in macroeconomics and public finance theoretical constructs such as the permanent income hypothesis are of limited assistance in resolving this issue because they neglect borrowing constraints and other market imperfections that can significantly affect the marginal propensity to spend out of current income recent empirical work has also proven inconclusive since whether consumption responds to income fluctuations by more or less than the permanent income hypothesis predicts turns critically upon whether disposable income follows a random walk or is stationary around a longrun trend see john campbell and angus deaton 1987 this controversy is unlikely to be resolved conclusively because it is notoriously difficult to distinguish a stationary but highly persistent time series from one that is nonstationary these difficulties suggest the importance of searching for natural experiments income shocks with predictable and well understood effects on future income to test models of consumer behavior changes in federal tax and transfer policy during the last two decades provide several episodes of this type analyzing the effects of these tax changes is also central to understanding the role of fiscal policy in affecting national saving this paper examines two aspects of consumer response to tax changes section i argues that consumption responds to temporary income tax shocks by more than the permanent income hypothesis would suggest results from the 1975 tax rebate in particular suggest that a 1 increase in transitory income raises spending by about 20 cents section ii examines consumption responses to tax announcements although the results are not conclusive they suggest that some consumers do not adjust consumption in anticipation of tax changes the final section sketches some implications for analyzing fiscal policy

is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization evidence from the consumer expenditure survey in this paper we show that some of the predictions of models of consumer intertemporal optimization are in line with the patterns of nondurable expenditure observed in u s household level data we propose a flexible specification of preferences that allows multiple commodities and yields empirically tractable equations we estimate preference parameters using the only u s micro data set with complete consumption information we show that previous rejections can be explained by the simplifying assumptions made in previous studies we also show that results obtained using good consumption or aggregate data can be misleading

do consumers respond to future income shocks evidence from social security reform in taiwan abstract a prediction of the basic permanent income hypothesis life cycle model is that an unexpected increase in future income produces an immediate increase in current consumption this paper tests that prediction using data from taiwan the 1985 labor standards law granted all employees in covered industries a windfall retirement severance benefit my results indicate that consumption did not increase immediately for those who were granted the windfall relative to those who received no windfall moreover consumption for those receiving a greater windfall did not increase relative to those who were granted less

a resource based theory of the firm knowledge versus opportunism this paper develops a resource based knowledge based theory of the firm its thesis is that the organizational mode through which individuals cooperate affects the knowledge they apply to business activity we focus on the polar cases of organization within a firm as compared to market contracting there will be a difference in the knowledge that is brought to bear and hence in joint productivity under the two options thus as compared to opportunism based transaction cost theory we advance a separate yet complementary answer to the question why do firms exist our aim is to develop an empirically relevant and complementary theory of why firms are formed a theory based on irreducible knowledge differences between individuals rather than the threat of purposeful cheating or withholding of information we assume limited cognitive abilities on the part of individuals bounded rationality and assume that opportunistic behavior will not occur the latter allows us to determine whether resource based

social security benefits consumption expenditure and the life cycle hypothesis this paper examines the impact of changes in social security benefits on aggregate consumption expenditure under the null hypothesis there should be no contemporaneous effect at the monthly frequency because increases in benefits have always been announced at least 6 weeks prior to payment the paper develops overwhelming evidence contrary to the null that benefits have affected aggregate spending the results have strong implications for several important issues including ricardian equivalence government policy irrelevance and the excess sensitivity of consumption to changes in income

paycheque receipt and the timing of consumption this article examines the consumption response to monthly paycheque receipt since the amount and arrival date of paycheques are known in advance the receipt of a paycheque does not coincide with the receipt of new information under the basic rational expectations life cycle permanent income hypothesis household consumption should not respond to paycheque arrival using data from the uk s family expenditure survey this article finds that household consumption is excessively sensitive to paycheque receipt the results cannot be explained by any underlying monthly expenditure fluctuations common to all households the presence of liquidity constraints as measured by wealth and age can account for the excess sensitivity results

the life cycle model of consumption and saving a central implication of life cycle models is that agents smooth consumption we review the empirical evidence on smoothing at frequencies from within the year up to across a lifetime we find that life cycle models particular those which incorporate realistic features of markets and goods have more empirical successes than failures we also show that some apparent deviations from theoretical predictions imply very small welfare losses for agents finally we emphasize that the coherence of life cycle models imposes an important discipline when incorporating new features into models

further evidence of excess sensitivity of consumption nonseparability among goods and heterogeneity across households the standard theoretical framework for analysing households intertemporal decisions is the life cycle permanent income model among its implications testing the model allows to analyse the response of consumption to fiscal policy however the empirical literature with microdata has yielded mixed results this article examines the sensitivity of the results to the assumption of separability among goods and of homogeneity across households for that purpose we test a rational expectations permanent income model with household data drawn from the spanish family expenditure survey this survey contains detailed information on total expenditure and the income presents large exogenous quarterly changes due to an institutional feature the article shows that assuming separability among commodities biases the test against the model when separability is not imposed we show that the rejection of the model depends on heterogeneity across households in terms of their members being unemployed or not for those

consumption of spanish households evidence from cohort data in this paper empirical evidence on elasticity of intertemporal substitution for spanish household consumption is shown several recent studies have rejected the lifecycle permanent income hypothesis using aggregate time series the rejection of the theory has often been blamed on the restrictive assumptions adopted in order to test the hypothesis this article tests the household behaviour using cohort data from the spanish encuesta continua de presupuestos familiares continuous survey of household budgets this source allows us to relax some of the most restrictive assumptions by using data with a certain degree of disaggregation evidence of consumer behaviour following the theory is found indirect evidence of liquidity constraints is also found and an alternative discount rate designed to be in better accordance with the theoretical foundations of the model is proposed

should we test the life cycle permanent income hypothesis with food consumption data abstract most household consumption studies use food consumption data i show that in aggregate data one cannot reject the life cycle hypothesis using food but can reject it using other goods existing micro tests of the life cycle hypothesis thus may have low power

permanent income current income and consumption evidence from two panel data sets in this article i estimate euler equations that is the first order conditions of the consumers maximization problem using data from two data sets consumption data are taken from the consumer expenditure survey income data are taken from the panel study of income dynamics because the data for the estimation come from two samples i use a generalization of the instrumental variables estimator the two sample instrumental variables estimator i find evidence that consumption is excessively sensitive to predictable income growth the estimates of the coefficient of excess sensitivity for three consumption measures range from 2 to 5

the response of household consumption to income tax refunds a central implication of the life cycle or permanent income theory is that consumption should not respond to predictable fluctuations in income tests of this implication have yielded mixed results especially on micro data angus deaton 1992 martin browning and annamaria lusardi 1996 in large part this might be due to the difficulties of isolating the predictable component of income at the micro level most tests proceed by instrumenting for income but since the available instruments are typically poor such tests might be prejudiced against finding significant excess sensitivity of consumption to income john shea 1995 also it is not clear how closely the resulting econometric predictions of income coincide with agents actual expectations of income to avoid these difficulties this paper examines the response of household consumption to a particular type of income that is both predictable and transitory income tax refunds since a refund depends on events in the previous calendar year it is predictable income as regards consumption in the year of its receipt consequently under the life cycle theory consumption should not increase on receipt of a refund 2 in addition to testing the canonical model of consumption this paper provides estimates interpretable as the marginal propensity to consume mpc out of refunds since federal tax refunds now amount to over 80 billion per year averaging well over 1 000 per refund these estimates are of interest in themselves more generally they bear on the impact of even preannounced and temporary changes in fiscal policy the paper begins by surveying related studies in section i section ii describes the data the consumer expenditure survey cex which of the leading u s micro data sets has the most comprehensive coverage of expenditure the empirical specification is set out in section hi section iv reports the results and section v concludes

green chemistry and green engineering in china drivers policies and barriers to innovation with the world s largest population and consistently rapid rates of economic growth china faces a choice of whether it will move towards a more sustainable development trajectory this paper identifies the different factors driving innovation in the fields of green chemistry and green engineering in china which we find to be largely driven by energy efficiency policy increasingly strict enforcement of pollution regulations and national attention to cleaner production concepts such as circular economy we also identify seven key barriers to the development and implementation of green chemistry and engineering in china they are 1 competition between economic growth and environmental agendas 2 regulatory and bureaucratic barriers 3 availability of research funding 4 technical barriers 5 workforce training 6 industrial engineering capacity and 7 economic and financial barriers our analysis reveals that the most crucial barriers to green chemistry and engineering innovations in china appear to be those that arise from competing priorities of economic growth and environmental protection as well as the technical challenges that arise from possessing a smaller base of experienced human capital we find that there is a great deal of potential for both the development of the underlying science as well as its implementation throughout the chemical enterprise especially if investment occurs before problems of technological lock in and sunk costs emerge c 2012 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

transaction cost economics in real time this paper attempts to place the theq of the boundaries of thejirm within the context of the passage of time more precisely it resurrects and places in a modem frame some of the insights of the chsical and marshallian theories of organization the modem reinterpretation of those theories centers around the capabilities view of the jirm taken together with governance costs the capabilities ofjirm and market determine the boundaries of the jirm in the short run ovw time capabilities change as firms and markets learn which implies a kind of information or knowledge cost the cost of trandewing the firm s capability to the market w vice versa these dynamic governance costs are the costs of persuading negotiating and coordinating with and teaching others they arise in the face of change notably txchnological and organizational innovation in fit they are the costs of not having the capabilities you need when you need them dynamic transaction costs provide an explanation for vertical integration that is arguably more general than those dominant in the literature in the face of uncertainty and divwgent views ofthe future common ownership of multiple stages of production is a supwior institutional arrangement for coordinating systemic change asset specrfity is neither necessary nor suffient for this to be true dynamic governance costs may also affit internal organization it may sometimes be costly in 3 terms of persuasion negotiation and teaching to create within the firm capabilities readily available on the market indeed in cases in which systemic coordination is not 4 the issue the market may turn out to be the superior institution of coordination in e 2 genwal the capabilities view of the jirm suggests that we look atfim2 and market as alternative and sometimes overlapping institutions of learning 1 transaction costs in the long rzln and the short 9 x classical and neoclassical perspectives

do liquidity constraints vary over time evidence from survey and panel data note much empirical work has been devoted to estimating the proportion of liquidity constrained consumers p and the fraction of income held by these liquidity constrained consumers l a common feature of these studies is that p and l are taken to be constant over time this paper attempts to determine whether this assertion is empirically justified by providing new evidence on the extent of liquidity constraints using survey and panel data the authors find that p and l do vary over time with trend and cyclical components but that over the period 1968 82 these fluctuations have not been dramatic copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

private saving interest rates and liquidity constraints in ldcs recent evidence there is still considerable controversy about the interest rate responsiveness of private saving in developing countries this paper provides recent evidence based on individual country estimations for a sample of 16 countries the model used here follows the uler equation approach and includes rational and forward looking permanent income consumers together with liquidity constrained consumers overall for this sample of countries the results obtained in this paper offer new evidence of a low responsiveness of saving to changes in the interest rate my results also support a strong role of liquidity constraints in these countries