estimates of effective marginal tax rates on factor incomes this chapter describes a method of calculating summary measures of effective factor income tax rates in the united states using readily available data the numbers resulting from application of this method in a study are reported in the chapter and some of their possible uses are discussed the estimated factor income tax rates behave over time in a manner quite consistent with the behavior of other broad measures of federal tax policy the postwar movement in the tax rate on income from labor relative to that on income from capital or more accurately the relevant components of these tax rates provides suggestive support for the miller scholes hypothesis that the federal personal income tax has been moving in the direction of a pure consumption tax the tax rates reported in the chapter are consistent with other studies that show a decrease since the 1950s in rates of taxation at the corporate level of income from corporate held capital they are also consistent with the view that rates of taxation of such income at the noncorporate level have risen but not quite sufficiently to offset the decline in the corporate tax burden

optimal pricing shipment and payment policy for an integrated supplier buyer inventory model with two part trade credit abstract in this article we develop an integrated supplier buyer inventory model with the assumption that the market demand is sensitive to the retail price and the supplier adopts a trade credit policy the trade credit policy discussed in this paper is a two part strategy cash discount and delayed payment that is if the buyer pays within m1 the buyer receives a cash discount otherwise the full purchasing price must be paid before m2 where m 2 m 1 0 the objective of this research is to determine the optimal pricing ordering shipping and payment policy to maximize the joint expected total profit per unit time an iterative algorithm is established to obtain the optimal strategy furthermore numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are presented to illustrate the results of the proposed model and to draw managerial insights

the optimal ordering policy in a dcf analysis for deteriorating items when trade credit depends on the order quantity abstract in this paper an inventory system for deteriorating items under the conditions of using the discounted cash flows dcf approach to the permissible to delay payment will be considered as a matter of fact the supplier usually is willing to provide the retailer a permissible delay of payments if the retailer orders a large quantity as a result we consider that the delay in payments depends on the quantity ordered that is when the order quantity is less than that at which the delay in payments is permitted the payment for the item must be made immediately otherwise the fixed trade credit period is permitted this paper incorporates all concepts of a dcf approach and the trade credit linked to ordering quantity and develops a new inventory model for deteriorating items to generalize jaggi and aggarwal int j prod econ 34 1994 151

the gender gap fertility and growth changes in fertility have long been recognized as important correlates of economic growth with the relationship between the level of fertility and the level of income per capita being one of the strongest observable correlations in cross country data this paper examines the linkages between fertility and growth theory the structure of the model is presented in sections on production couples decision making system dynamics and steady state equilibria the first component of the model is that increases in capital per worker raise womens relative wages since capital is more complementary to womens labor input than to mens the second component is that increasing womens relative wages reduces fertility by raising the cost of children more than household income finally lower fertility raises the level of capital per worker a positive feedback loop generates demographic transition a rapid decline in fertility accompanied by accelerated output growth

integrated inventory models considering the two level trade credit policy and a price negotiation scheme abstract this paper develops the integrated inventory models with permissible delay in payment in which customers demand is sensitive to the buyer s price the models consider the two level trade credit policy in the vendor buyer and buyer customer relationships in supply chain management a simple recursive solution procedure is proposed for the integrated models to determine the buyer s optimal pricing and production order strategy although the total profit from the buyer and vendor increases together the buyer s share lessens to compensate the buyer s loss due to the cooperative relationship a negotiation system is presented in order to allocate the profit increase to the vendor and buyer to determine the pricing and production order strategy a numerical example and sensitivity analysis are provided to illustrate the proposed model the results indicate that the total profit from the buyer and vendor together can increase although a price discount is given to the buyer in the proposed models

the career costs of children this paper analyzes the life cycle career costs associated with child rearing and decomposes their eects into unearned wages as women drop out of the labor market loss of human capital and selection into more child friendly occupations we estimate a dynamic life cycle model of fertility occupational choice and labor supply using detailed survey and administrative data for germany for numerous birth cohorts across dierent regions we use this model to analyze both the male female wage gap as it evolves from labor market entry onward and the eect of pro fertility policies we show that a substantial portion of the gender wage gap is explainable by realized and expected fertility and that the long run eect of policies encouraging fertility are considerably lower than the short run eects typically estimated in the literature

the structure and degree of dependence a quantile regression approach abstract the copula function defines the degree of dependence and the structure of dependence this paper proposes an alternative framework to decompose the dependence using quantile regression we demonstrate that the methodology provides a detailed picture of dependence including asymmetric and non linear relationships in addition changes in the degree or structure of dependence can be modeled and tested for each quantile of the distribution the empirical part applies the framework to three different sets of financial time series and demonstrates substantial differences in dependence patterns among asset classes and through time the analysis of 54 global equity markets shows that detailed information about the structure of dependence is crucial to adequately assess the benefits of diversification in normal times and crisis times

taxation and household labor supply we evaluate reforms to the u s tax system in a life cycle setup with heterogeneous married and single households and with an operative extensive margin in labor supply we restrict our model with observations on gender and skill premia labor force participation of married females across skill groups children and the structure of marital sorting we concentrate on two revenue neutral tax reforms a proportional income tax and a reform in which married individuals flle taxes separately separate flling our flndings indicate that tax reforms are accompanied by large increases in labor supply that difier across demographic groups with the bulk of the increase coming from married females under a proportional income tax reform married females account for more than 50 of the changes in hours across steady states while under separate flling reform married females account for all the change in hours

does neoclassical theory account for the effects of big fiscal shocks evidence from world war ii much debate surrounds the usefulness of the neoclassical growth model for assessing the macroeconomic impact of fiscal shocks we test the theory using data from world war ii which is by far the largest fiscal shock in the history of the united states we take observed changes in fiscal policy during the war as inputs into a parameterized dynamic general equilibrium model and compare the values of all variables in the model to the actual values of these variables in the data our main finding is that the theory quantitatively accounts for macroeconomic activity during this big fiscal shock

a review of trade credit literature opportunities for research in operations abstract trade credit arises when a buyer delays payment for purchased goods or services its nature has predominantly been an area of inquiry for researchers from the disciplines of finance marketing and economics but it has received relatively little attention in other domains in our article we provide an integrative review of the existing literature and discuss conflicting study outcomes we organize the relevant literature into seven areas of inquiry and analyze four in detail trade credit motives order quantity decisions credit term decisions and settlement period decisions additionally we derive a detailed agenda for future research in these areas

optimal strategy for an integrated system with variable production rate when the freight rate and trade credit are both linked to the order quantity abstract this paper presents an integrated inventory model with variable production rate and price sensitive demand rate the buyer s purchases trade credit linked to the order quantity offered by the supplier in addition the buyer pays the freight charge according to a weight schedule this paper attempts to offer a best policy that aims at maximizing the joint total profit while the trade credit and freight rate are simultaneously linked to the order quantity the same policy also incorporates considerations on the optimal retail price order quantity and delivery decision we provide possible solutions for the buyer and the supplier to collaboratively agree on inventory control warehouse management transportation logistics delivery and billing our study demonstrates that significant profit increase for the entire supply chain can be achieved by linking both trade credit policy and freight rate policy to order quantities an algorithm is furnished to determine the optimal solution in addition numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are presented to illustrate the theoretical results

the baby boom and baby bust what caused the baby boom and can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years the hypothesis is that a the secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children b the baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century this lowered the cost of having children a model is developed in an attempt to account quantitatively for both the baby boom and bust

an incentive compatible solution for trade credit term incorporating default risk abstract this paper studies the optimal trade credit term decision in an extended economic ordering quantity eoq framework that incorporates a default risk component a principal agent bilevel programming model with costs minimization objectives is set up to derive the incentive compatible credit term the supplier determines the credit term as the leader in the first level programming by balancing her his financing capacity with the retailer s default risk order behavior and cost shifting at the second level the retailer makes decisions on ordering and payment time by reacting on the term offered by the supplier a first order condition solution procedure is derived for the bilevel programming when credit term is confined within the practically feasible interval two key results are obtained the condition to derive incentive compatible credit term and an equation system to derive threshold default risk criterion filtering retailers suitable for credit granting numerical experiments show that the capital cost of the supplier is the most important factor determining the credit term default risk acts like a filtering criterion for selecting retailers suitable for credit granting empirical evidence supporting our theoretical considerations is obtained by estimating three panel econometric models using a dataset from china s listed companies

oil and the macroeconomy since world war ii all but one of the u s recessions since world war ii have been preceded typically with a lag of around three fourths of a year by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum this does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions evidence is presented however that even over the period 1948 72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the u s recessions prior to 1972 by extension energy price increases may account for much of post opec macroeconomic performance

volatility behavior of oil industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime switching environment abstract this study supplements previous regime switching studies on wti crude oil and finds two possible volatility regimes for the strategic commodity prices of brent oil wti oil copper gold and silver and the s p 500 index but with varying high to low volatility ratios the dynamic conditional correlations dccs indicate increasing correlations among all the commodities since the 2003 iraq war but decreasing correlations with the s p 500 index the commodities also show different volatility persistence responses to financial and geopolitical crises while the s p 500 index responds to both financial and geopolitical crises implications are discussed

oil and stock market volatility a multivariate stochastic volatility perspective abstract this paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction it offers four major findings first the stock and oil futures prices are inter related their correlation follows a time varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile second conditioned on the past information the volatility in each market is very persistent i e it varies in a predictable manner third there is inter market dependence in volatility innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market in other words conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets the past volatility of the stock oil futures market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures stock market finally the model produces more accurate value at risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry

systemic risk spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns of g7 economies conditional value at risk and marginal expected shortfall approaches abstract in this study we examine systemic risk and dependence between oil and stock market indices of g7 economies between january 2003 and november 2017 coincidentally this timeframe covers different distress periods in financial and energy markets we use several time constant time varying and time varying markov copula models to examine the dependence further we use the delta conditional value at risk covar of adrian and brunnermeier 2016 and marginal expected shortfall mes of acharya et al 2012 to captures the risk spillover effects and give evidence of systemic risk from the copula analysis we find dissimilar dependence structure between returns series of oil and the g7 stock markets for france germany and japan the dependence is markov switching time varying while it is time varying for the united states and canada constant for the united kingdom and around zero for italy our empirical evidence on systemic risk indicates that oil price dynamics contributes significantly more to the g7 stock market returns during volatile times than during tranquil times in particular the canada stock market appears more sensitive and vulnerable to negative external shocks emerging from the crude oil market than the other markets further the country risk rankings identified using mes and covar may not be identical in addition the analysis results suggest that the crude oil market can be a good diversifier for investors in japan and france and that the investors in the rest of g7 countries must act more carefully

the fiscal role of conscription in the u s world war ii effort an often overlooked role of conscription is as a method of lump sum taxation in times of war conscription of military personnel allows the fiscal authority to minimize wartime government expenditure and hence minimize tax distortions associated with war finance this paper presents a simple dynamic general equilibrium model to articulate this view and calibrates the model to the u s world war ii experience analysis of the calibrated model indicates that the welfare value of conscription as a fiscal policy tool is quantitatively large despite the fact that the american involvement lasted only four years conscription is worth approximately 2 of annual aggregate consumption in perpetuity

considering environmental implications of distribution channel choices a comparative study based on game theory abstract recently with the rapid development of e commerce in the world the total scale of online shopping has reached a notably high level the environmental benefits of online retailing have been highlighted in many studies but many factors could have contributed to opposing results motivated by the new sharp expansion of online shopping in china we employ a game theoretic based model to make a comparative study of the environment impacts of single channel traditional retail channel and dual channel online direct channel and traditional retail channel supply chains by taking product characteristics customers distribution range and propensities into account to the best of our knowledge no previous researchers have considered these factors simultaneously numerical analyses are applied to illustrate the model and demonstrate the influences of these factors on channel selection decisions and their resulting effects on the environment our results provide a reference for companies to decide whether to add an online direct channel for a specific product the conclusions can also benefit the government in guiding companies to distribute products in more eco friendly ways

income inequality in the united states 1913 1998 this paper presents new homogeneous series on top shares of income and wages from 1913 to 1998 in the united states using individual tax returns data top income and wages shares display a u shaped pattern over the century our series suggest that the large shocks that capital owners experienced during the great depression and world war ii have had a permanent effect on top capital incomes we argue that steep progressive income and estate taxation may have prevented large fortunes from fully recovering from these shocks top wage shares were flat before world war ii dropped precipitously during the war and did not start to recover before the late 1960s but are now higher than before world war ii as a result the working rich have replaced the rentiers at the top of the income distribution

labour force participation timing and persistence this paper examines the relative importance of timing and persistence elements in explaining cyclical fluctuations in labour supply data from the natural experiment provided by world war ii and cross sectional data on american local labour markets as well as aggregate time series data are used in the empirical work we find little evidence that timing effects play an important role in labour market dynamics the evidence suggests that views emphasizing persistence are more accurate and that previous employment tends to raise the probability of subsequent employment much of the development of applied economic theory within the past 25 years has emphasized the importance of viewing economic decisions in a life cycle context consumption decisions are today frequently viewed as being determined by wealth or permanent income the human capital revolution has brought life cycle considerations to the forefront of modern labour economics while the life cycle dynamics of labour force participation decisions have important implications for macroeconomic theory and policy they have received relatively little empirical attention with the notable exceptions of lucas and rapping 1969 and hall 1980 none of the large body of work on cyclical fluctuations in employment has explicitly relied on a dynamic model of labour supply this paper uses several types of data to examine two elements of participation dynamics the first is the aspect of timing which is implicit in the work of lucas and rapping and in mincer s 1966 early discussion of hidden unemployment the timing argument which is presented most explicitly in ghez and becker 1975 holds that leisure is easily substitutable across periods hence relatively small transitory movements in the perceived real wage or real rate of return can have large effects on the path of labour supply as individuals time their participation to coincide with periods of high transitory wages on the other hand permanent changes because they do not affect the timing decision are expected to have a much smaller effect on participation it is this view of labour supply which underlies new classical macroeconomic models the dependence is made explicit in lucas 1975 who claims that what we do know indicates that leisure in one period is an excellent substitute for leisure in other nearby periods the ability of classical macroeconomic models to explain fluctuations in employment depends on the presence of strong intertemporal substitution effects unless

coordination and profit sharing between a manufacturer and a buyer with target profit under credit option several studies have focused on buyer vendor coordination through quantity discount credit option mechanism but few quantitative models and investigations are available that have explored the mechanism for transfer of surplus generated due to coordination in this paper we develop a coordination mechanism through credit option such that both the parties can divide the surplus equitably after satisfying their own profit targets two situations are explored here in the first situation both the parties have no individual profit target from the business whereas in the second situation there are individual profit target for both the parties the proposed mechanism for division of surplus is studied through a numerical study and the impact of different parameter values on the results are examined

engines of liberation electricity was born at the dawn of the last century households were inundated with a flood of new consumer durables what was the impact of this consumer durable goods revolution it is argued here that the consumer goods revolution was conducive to liberating women from the home to analyse this hypothesis a beckerian model of household production is developed households must decide whether or not to adopt the new technologies and whether a married woman should work can such a model help to explain the rise in married female labour force participation that occurred in the last century yes the housewife of the future will be neither a slave to servants nor herself a drudge she will give less attention to the home because the home will need less she will be rather a domestic engineer than a domestic labourer with the greatest of all handmaidens electricity at her service this and other mechanical forces will so revolutionize the woman s world that a large portion of the aggregate of woman s energy will be conserved for use in broader more constructive fields thomas alva edison as interviewed in good housekeeping magazine lv no 4 october 1912 p 436

relationship between the oil price volatility and sectoral stock markets in oil exporting economies evidence from wavelet nonlinear denoised based quantile and granger causality analysis abstract this paper examines the extent of volatility between oil price and sectoral indices in the gulf cooperation council gcc countries by using quantile regression analysis qra for the return s series and denoised series over the period 2006 2017 four sectors are found to offer diversification opportunities during a high market i e 90th quantile all the sectors are found interdependent of oil price volatility however the bank and insurance sectors are insusceptible to oil price volatility during the 10th 25th and 75th quantiles in addition qra results for wavelet nonlinear denoising with a soft thresholding series indicate that all the sectors are interdependent of oil price volatility but that the aggregate market index transport and telecommunication sectors are insensitive to oil price volatility during the 75th and 90th quantiles this highlights the usefulness of denoising the financial returns series when applying regression tools moreover the contagion and interdependence between the oil price and stock returns sectors are estimated by frequency domain causality

a joint optimal pricing rebate value and lot sizing model delayed incentives in the form of mail in cash rebates are very popular among manufacturers and more recently among retailers one of the main advantages of rebates is that while they increase demand a small proportion of consumers redeem them in this paper we formulate and solve models for jointly determining the optimal price rebate face value and the optimal order quantity for a price and rebate sensitive deterministic demand the models show that under realistic conditions offering rebates can have significant pricing and inventory policy implications and can lead to a significant increase in profit

integrated vendor buyer cooperative inventory models with variant permissible delay in payments abstract the integrated inventory models usually have the advantage of reducing total cost however the way to allocate the cost savings from the integration to the buyer and vendor is critical to the success of the joint relationship between both sides to deal with this problem this paper develops the integrated models with the permissible delay in payments for determining the optimal replenishment time interval and replenishment frequency applying the models and considering the coefficient of negotiation and the maximum delay payment period a simple solution algorithm is presented to resolve the allocation of cost savings in the integration model the coefficient of negotiation is adopted to determine the compromise between the buyer s and vendor s cost savings a numerical example is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed integration models a sensitivity analysis is also conducted to demonstrate some properties using the information from the proposed models the buyer and vendor can achieve an acceptable compromise solution for both sides in the supply chain management

the optimal inventory policies under permissible delay in payments depending on the ordering quantity abstract this paper deals with the problem of determining the economic order quantity under conditions of permissible delay in payments the delay in payments depends on the quantity ordered when the order quantity is less than the quantity at which the delay in payments is permitted the payment for the item must be made immediately otherwise the fixed trade credit period is permitted the minimization of the total variable cost per unit of time is taken as the objective function an algorithm to determine the economic order quantity is developed the results obtained in this paper generalize some already published results

analyzing volatility spillovers and hedging between oil and stock markets evidence from wavelet analysis abstract this paper examines the linkage of crude oil market wti and stock markets of the g 7 countries we study the mean and volatility spillovers of oil and stock market prices over various time horizons we propose a new approach incorporating both multivariate garch models and wavelet analysis wavelet based mgarch approach we combine a bivariate garch bekk model with wavelet multiresolution analysis in order to capture the multiscale features of mean and volatility spillovers between time series for optimal portfolio allocation decisions we analyze the multiscale behavior of hedge ratio empirical results show strong evidence of significant volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets as well as time varying correlations for various market pairs however results of wavelet coherence indicate that in most the wti market was leading in addition it is stated that the decomposed volatility spillovers permit investors to adapt their hedging strategies

oil price shocks and stock markets in the u s and 13 european countries abstract oil price shocks have a statistically significant impact on real stock returns contemporaneously and or within the following month in the u s and 13 european countries over 1986 1 2005 12 norway as an oil exporter shows a statistically significantly positive response of real stock returns to an oil price increase the median result from variance decomposition analysis is that oil price shocks account for a statistically significant 6 of the volatility in real stock returns for many european countries but not for the u s increased volatility of oil prices significantly depresses real stock returns the contribution of oil price shocks to variability in real stock returns in the u s and most other countries is greater than that of interest rate an increase in real oil price is associated with a significant increase in the short term interest rate in the u s and eight out of 13 european countries within one or two months counter to findings for the u s and for norway there is little evidence of asymmetric effects on real stock returns of positive and negative oil price shocks for oil importing european countries

capital shortfall a new approach to ranking and regulating systemic risks the financial crisis of 2007 2009 has given way to the sovereign debt crisis of 2010 2012 yet many of the banking issues remain the same we discuss a method to estimate the capital that a financial firm would need to raise if we have another financial crisis this measure of capital shortfall is based on publicly available information but is conceptually similar to the stress tests conducted by us and european regulators we argue that this measure summarizes the major characteristics of systemic risk and provides a reliable interpretation of the past and current financial crises

systemic risk measurement multivariate garch estimation of covar abstract we modify adrian and brunnermeier s 2011 covar the var of the financial system conditional on an institution being in financial distress we change the definition of financial distress from an institution being exactly at its var to being at most at its var this change allows us to consider more severe distress events to backtest covar and to improve its consistency monotonicity with respect to the dependence parameter we define the systemic risk contribution of an institution as the change from its covar in its benchmark state defined as a one standard deviation event to its covar under financial distress we estimate the systemic risk contributions of four financial industry groups consisting of a large number of institutions for the sample period june 2000 to february 2008 and the 12 months prior to the beginning of the crisis we also investigate the link between institutions contributions to systemic risk and their characteristics

dynamic labour force participation of married women and endogenous work experience this paper presents and estimates a dynamic model of married women s labour force participation and fertility in which the effect of work experience on wages is explicitly taken into account because current participation alters future potential earnings the investment return to work will be an important factor in the current work decision in any forward looking behavioural model the model is estimated using the national longitudinal surveys mature women s cohort we use the estimates of our model to predict changes in the lifecycle patterns of employment due to changes in schooling fertility husband s income and the magnitude of the experience effect on wages we find that although work experience increases the disutility of further work the effect is overwhelmed by the positive effect of experience on wages leading to persistence in the employment patterns of these women in addition we find that an increase in young children and in husband s income substantially reduces participation while increased schooling has a powerful positive impact on participation this paper presents an estimable structural dynamic model of married women s labour force participation and fertility in which wages are stochastic and work experience or cumulative participation is endogeneous the model is structural in the sense that the parameters which are estimated are contained in the fundamental relationships governing behaviour namely the utility function and the constraints the model is contained in the class of models which describe the life cycle capital accumulation process with endogeneous labour supply such as weiss 1972 and heckman 1976 it is closest in spirit to that of weiss and gronau 1981 1 the basic feature of their model and ours is that labour market participation affects future wages which then affects future participation the investment return to current work will necessarily be taken into account in any forward looking optimizing model as weiss and gronau note estimates of labour supply models have ignored the inherent behavioural dynamics associated with a positive wageexperience profile there is no adequate empirical treatment of the human capital investment dimension of the labour force participation decision in the literature heckman and willis 1977 have studied a sequential discrete choice model of the labour force participation of married women in a reduced form framework their work

economic order quantity under conditionally permissible delay in payments abstract within the economic order quantity eoq framework the main purpose of this paper is to investigate the retailer s optimal replenishment policy under permissible delay in payments all previously published articles dealing with optimal order quantity with permissible delay in payments assumed that the supplier only offers the retailer fully permissible delay in payments if the retailer ordered a sufficient quantity otherwise permissible delay in payments would not be permitted however in this paper we want to extend this extreme case by assuming that the supplier would offer the retailer partially permissible delay in payments when the order quantity is smaller than a predetermined quantity under this condition we model the retailer s inventory system as a cost minimization problem to determine the retailer s optimal inventory cycle time and optimal order quantity three theorems are established to describe the optimal replenishment policy for the retailer some previously published results of other researchers can be deduced as special cases finally numerical examples are given to illustrate all these theorems and to draw managerial insights

the baby boom and world war ii a macroeconomic analysis we argue that one major cause of the u s postwar baby boom was the rise in female labor supply during world war ii we develop a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility and female labor force participation decisions we use the model to assess the impact of the war on female labor supply and fertility in the decades following the war for the war generation of women the high demand for female labor brought about by mobilization leads to an increase in labor supply that persists after the war as a result younger women who reach adulthood in the 1950s face increased labor market competition which impels them to exit the labor market and start having children earlier the effect is amplified by the rise in taxes necessary to pay down wartime government debt in our calibrated model the war generates a substantial baby boom followed by a baby bust

oil prices stock markets and portfolio investment evidence from sector analysis in europe over the last decade this article extends the understanding of oil stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade unlike previous empirical investigations which have largely focused on broad based market indices national and or regional indices we examine short term linkages in the aggregate as well as sector by sector levels in europe using different econometric techniques our main findings suggest that the reactions of stock returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector in the out of sample analysis we show that introducing oil asset into a diversified portfolio of stocks allows to significantly improve its risk return characteristics

optimal trade credit and lot size policies in economic production quantity models with learning curve production costs abstract in reality a seller e g a supplier or a manufacturer frequently offers his her buyers trade credit e g permissible delay in payment trade credit reduces the buyer s holding cost of inventory and hence attracts new buyers who consider it to be a type of price reduction on the other hand granting trade credit also increases the seller s opportunity cost i e the loss of capital opportunity during the credit period and default risk i e the event in which the buyer will be unable to make the required payments on his her debt obligation in addition it is a well known fact of learning by doing that production cost of a new product declines by a factor of from 10 to 50 percent each time the accumulated production volume doubles therefore we propose an economic production quantity model from the seller s prospective to determine his her optimal trade credit period and production lot size simultaneously in which i trade credit increases not only sales but also opportunity cost and default risk and ii production cost declines and obeys a learning curve phenomenon then the necessary and sufficient conditions to obtain the seller s optimal trade credit and order quantity are derived finally we use some numerical examples to illustrate the theoretical results and to provide some managerial insights

systemic risk in european sovereign debt markets a covar copula approach abstract we studied systemic risk in european sovereign debt markets before and after the onset of the greek debt crisis taking the conditional value at risk covar as a systemic risk measure characterized and computed using copulas we found that before the debt crisis sovereign debt markets were all coupled and systemic risk was similar for all countries however with the onset of the greek crisis debt markets decoupled and the systemic risk of the countries in crisis excepting spain for the european debt market as a whole decreased whereas that of the non crisis countries increased to a small degree the systemic risk of the greek debt market for other countries in difficulties increased especially for portugal where systemic risk tripled after the onset of the crisis whereas the systemic impact on the non crisis countries decreased

a comparative analysis of greening policies across supply chain structures abstract in this paper we examine an apparel serial supply chain whose players initiate product greening we consider situations in which the players cooperate or act individually our problem is motivated by recent developments in the supply chains of global apparel players we build game theoretic models and show how greening levels prices and profits are influenced by channel structures we also study the impact of greening costs and consumer sensitivity towards green apparels we propose a two part tariff contract to coordinate the green channel our key contribution lies in the model of decision making of various supply chain structures and analyzing its impact on the players and supply chain the problem throws interesting insights into the strategies of apparel players and their key decisions

nature or nurture learning and the geography of female labor force participation one of the most dramatic economic transformations of the past century has been the entry of women into the labor force while many theories explain why this change took place we investigate the process of transition itself we argue that local information transmission generates changes in participation that are geographically heterogeneous locally correlated and smooth in the aggregate just like those observed in our data in our model women learn about the efiects of maternal employment on children by observing nearby employed women when few women participate in the labor force data is scarce and participation rises slowly as information accumulates in some regions the efiects of maternal employment become less uncertain and more women in that region participate learning accelerates labor force participation rises faster and regional participation rates diverge eventually information difiuses throughout the economy beliefs converge to the truth participation attens out and regions become more similar again to investigate the empirical relevance of our theory we use a new county level data set to compare our calibrated model to the time series and geographic patterns of participation

why are fertility rates and female employment ratios positively correlated across o e c d countries we develop a quantitative theory of fertility and labor market participation de cisions in order to investigate the role of labor market frictions to understand the positive association between fertility and employment among o e c d countries we nd that unemployment induces females to postpone and space births which in turn reduces the total fertility rate moreover diferences in female labor outcomes across the u s and spain can account for the low fertility rate in spain relative to the u s we also nd that labor market frictions low probability of nding a job determine how employment and fertility are associated across economies in particular fertility and employment are positively associated across economies with low employment ratios low probability of nding a job on the other hand fertility and employment are negatively associated across economies with a high probability of nding a job

mothers and sons preference formation and female labor force dynamics this paper argues that the growing presence of a new type of man one brought up in a family in which the mother worked has been a significant factor in the increase in female labor force participation over time we present cross sectional evidence showing that the wives of men whose mothers worked are themselves significantly more likely to work we use variation in the importance of world war ii as a shock to women s labor force participation as proxied by variation in the male draft rate across u s states to provide evidence in support of the intergenerational consequences of our propagation mechanism

long term determinants of the demographic transition 1870 2000 abstract this paper analyzes the long term economic determinants of the demographic transition using a large panel of countries since 1870 a simple theoretical framework accounts for the possibly nonmonotonic variations of fertility in the course of economic development as predicted by unified growth theory i find that primary schooling rather than income or health related variables is the most robust determinant of the fertility transition as regards the health transition both education and income are significant determinants of mortality rates but education alone accounts for the bulk of their time variation over the twentieth century thus education can be viewed as the main long term determinant of the demographic transition

downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices abstract we examined downside and upside risk spillovers from exchange rates to stock prices and vice versa for a set of emerging economies we characterized the dependence structure between currency and stock returns using copulas and computed downside and upside value at risk and conditional value at risk we documented a positive relationship between stock prices and currency values in emerging economies with respect to the us dollar and the euro with downside and upside spillover risk effects transmitted both ways finally we also documented asymmetries in upside and downside risk spillovers and asymmetric differences in the size of risk spillovers when the domestic currency values against the us dollar and the euro our results consistent with flight to quality phenomena have implications for downside and upside risk management of international investor portfolios in emerging markets

stackelberg solution in a vendor buyer supply chain model with permissible delay in payments abstract in practice vendors or sellers often offer their buyers a fixed credit period to settle the account the benefits of trade credit are not only to attract new buyers but also to avoid lasting price competition on the other hand the policy of granting a permissible delay adds not only an additional cost but also an additional dimension of default risk to vendors in this paper we will incorporate the fact that granting a permissible delay has a positive impact on demand but negative impacts on both costs and default risks to establish vendor buyer supply chain models then we will derive the necessary and sufficient conditions to obtain the optimal solution for both the vendor and the buyer under non cooperative stackelberg equilibrium finally we will use two numerical examples to show that 1 granting a permissible delay may significantly improve profits for both the vendor and the buyer 2 the sensitivity analysis on the optimal solution with respect to each parameter and 3 the comparisons between nash and stackelberg solutions

a note on optimal order quantities for credit purchases abstract in this note optimal purchase quantities are derived for firms that regularly purchase items on credit these derivations represent modifications to the traditional economic order quantity model and include situations where handling and storage costs are charged as incurred prepaid or billed after usage buying on credit introduces float foregone as a relevant cost and makes discounting an integral element in the analysis wholesale and retail firms operating in developing marketbased economies are noted as example scenarios where the results from these derivations are managerially significant

a game theory approach in seller buyer supply chain in this paper several seller buyer supply chain models are proposed which incorporate both cost factors as well as elements of competition and cooperation between seller and buyer we assume that unit marketing expenditure and unit price charged by the buyer influence the demand of the product being sold the relationships between seller and buyer will be modeled by non cooperative and cooperative games respectively the non cooperative game is based on the stackelberg strategy solution concept where we consider separately the case when the seller is the leader seller stackelberg and also when the buyer is the leader buyer stackelberg pareto efficient solutions will be provided for the cooperative game model numerical examples presented in this paper including sensitivity analysis of some key parameters will compare the results between different models considered

shocking labor supply a reassessment of the role of world war ii on women s labor supply the most prominent feature of the female labor force across the past hundred years is its enormous growth but many believe that the increase was discontinuous our purpose is to identify the short and long run impacts of wwii on the labor supply of women who were currently married in 1950 and 1960 we use mobilization rates for various groups of men by age race fatherhood to see whether there was a wartime impact we find that an aggregate mobilization rate produces the largest and most robust impacts on both weeks worked and the labor force participation of married white non farm women the impact moreover was experienced primarily by women in the top half of the education distribution women who were married but without children during wwii were the group most impacted by the mobilization rate in 1950 although by 1960 wwii still influenced the labor supply decisions of them as well as those with children during wwii we end the paper with a resolution between the watershed and revisionist views of the role of wwii on female labor supply

the baby boom and the stock market boom this paper addresses two issues the first is whether demographic change was plausibly responsible for the run up in stock prices over the last decade and whether an attempt by the baby boom cohort to cash out of its investments in the period 2010 2030 might lead to an asset meltdown the second issue is whether the rise in dependency that will accompany the retirement of the baby boom cohort calls for an increase in national saving we analyze these issues using a forward looking macro demographic model and show that they are related via the existence of installation costs for capital if such costs are sufficiently large then demographics do have the power to affect stock prices but saving for america s old age is less optimal however conventional estimates of capital installation costs are not large enough to explain large stock price movements in response to actual demographic change

profiles of fertility labour supply and wages of married women a complete life cycle model of all the major economic and demographic events in the postwar united states period the trends in fertility and female labour supply stand out as among the most dramatic fertility rates after their depression lows rose unexpectedly after world war ii far more than was anticipated as an adjustment to the war and continued to rise until the late 1950 s and early 1960 s when they again took an unexpected turn downward all the way to today s historical lows female labour force participation rates continuing their historical climb grew throughout the postwar period at an increasing pace by 4 percentage points during the 1950 s by 5 percentage points during the 1960 s and by 8 percentage points during the 1970 s these two trends are of course closely related for most married women have traditionally spent at least some minimal time out of the labour force while caring for their own children thus for example the slower growth rate of labour force participation rates in the 1950 s is probably connected with the higher fertility rates in that period in this paper a complete model of female labour supply and fertility choice is constructed and estimated the model is more complete than previous models in several respects first labour supply and fertility decisions are modelled as completely joint in the same sense as the consumption of two goods is joint second both are modelled as life cycle decisions that is as decisions regarding sequences of labour supply and fertility events rather than levels of the same hence the timing of both is important third the life cycle path of wage rates is made endogenous to the model given a wage function showing the effect of work experience on future wages the path of wages is determined automatically by the chosen path of labour supply which in turn is related to fertility decisions that require some period of non work econometrically the three profiles for labour supply fertility and wages are estimated with a full information maximum likelihood technique that solves several econometric problems such as the problem of heterogeneity of tastes the selectivity problem of missing wage rates for non workers and the problem of simultaneous equations bias the value of constructing a complete model is best seen by briefly reviewing past work in this area the modern literature in the area is based upon the work of becker

is there dependence and systemic risk between oil and renewable energy stock prices abstract we study systemic risk and dependence between oil and renewable energy markets using copulas to characterize the dependence structure and to compute the conditional value at risk as a measure of systemic risk we found significant time varying average and symmetric tail dependence between oil returns and several global and sectoral renewable energy indices our evidence on systemic risk indicates that oil price dynamics significantly contributes around 30 to downside and upside risk of renewable energy companies these results have important implications for risk management and renewable energy policies

the macroeconomic effects of war finance in the united states world war ii and the korean war during world war ii government expenditures were financed primarily by issuing debt during the korean war expenditures were financed almost exclusively by higher taxes reflecting president truman s preference for balanced budgets this paper evaluates quantitatively the economic effects of the different policies used to finance these two wars counterfactual experiments are used to explore the implications of financing world war ii like the korean war and financing the korean war like world war ii the author finds that using a korean war policy during world war ii would have resulted in much lower output and welfare relative to the actual policy copyright 1997 by american economic association

interdependence of oil prices and stock market indices a copula approach article i nfo article history in this paper we study the relationship between the oil price and stock market index of various countries between 1982 and 2007 we exclude oil and gas stock companies from the stock indices to remove the obvious direct linkage oil price series are converted into local currency to account for possible exchange rate effects the method of copula is used to model the general dependence between stock returns and oil price returns our findings suggest a weak dependence between oil prices and stock indices for most cases which are consistent with the results from previous studies exceptions are for the stock index returns of large oil consuming and producing countries united states and canada which are shown to have a relatively strong dependence with the oil price series the introduction of euro in 1999 altered considerably dependence between oil prices and stock returns

a joint approach for setting unit price and the length of the credit period for a seller when end demand is price sensitive this paper considers the seller buyer channel in which the end demand is price sensitive and the seller may offer trade credit to the buyer the unit price seller charged by the seller and the length of the credit period offered by the seller to the buyer both influence the final demand for the product hence we consider both to be policy variables for the seller we use the case of no credit as a benchmark in our analysis the paper provides procedures for determiningthe seller s and the buyer s policies under non cooperative as well as cooperative relationships in the non cooperative case we determine for the seller the optimal unit price and the length of the credit period for the cooperative structure we provide a procedure for characterizingpareto efficient solutions r 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

oil price movements and stock markets revisited a case of sector stock price indexes in the g 7 countries abstract applying sector stock prices and oil prices in 1991 01 2009 05 from the g7 countries we find oil price shocks do not significantly impact the composite index in each country however stock price changes in germany the uk and the us were found to lead oil price changes as for the interaction between oil price changes and sector stock price changes we find short run negative causal relationships 4 of 7 sector index returns were impacted by oil price changes in germany 2 in the us and 1 in france in particular stock returns of information technology and consumer staples sectors were found to be impacted most by oil price shocks followed by financial utilities and transportation sectors in terms of causality from sector stock price changes to oil price changes we find stock price changes lead oil price changes in 8 of 9 sectors in germany most in the g7 countries followed by the uk italy france canada and the us no such a causal relationship however is found for japan with respect to specific sectors stock price changes in consumer staples and materials sectors were impacted most significantly by oil price changes followed by transportation financial energy health care industrials utilities information technology and telecommunication sectors with the exception of consumer discretionary sector in addition short term stock price changes are found to lead positively oil price changes

the butz ward fertility model in the light of more recent data butz and ward b w in their 1979 article the emergence of countercyclical us fertility postulated a change in the longstanding pattern of procyclical fertility first documented by dorothy thomas in 1927 the paucity of published data on female wages led b w to approximate a time series using a number of disparate sources there has been some criticism of the b w methodology focusing mainly on the problem of autocorrelation in time series analysis and misspecification 15 years after the 1979 article a great deal of both micro and macro data exist which were not available at the time of the original b w research the author tests the robustness of the b w results by first updating them using their original sources then with data drawn from the march current population survey cps the results indicate that there are wide divergences between the original b w estimates of female wages and the cps time series in particular the cps time series shows that much of the dramatic increase in the female hourly wage in the 1960s as estimated by b w appears to have been the result of the proxy they used for average hours worked that proxy was a series of average hours of all workers in the retail trade which trends sharply downward contrary to the actual pattern for married women estimates of the b w model using the new cps series fail to work neither in terms of the signs nor significance of the variables even using the original b w data their model no longer fits in the period after about 1954 their results seem to have been driven by relationships exhibited during 1947 54 almost 10 years before the increases in female labor force participation which began in the 1960s

channel coordination and quantity discounts this paper presents a model for analyzing the impact of joint decision policies on channel coordination in a system consisting of a supplier and a group of homogeneous buyers the joint decision policy characterized by the unit selling price and the order quantity is coordinated through quantity discounts and franchise fees both the annual demand rate and the operating cost including the purchase ordering and inventory holding costs depend on the joint decision policy employed this paper contributes by integrating work addressing quantity discounts on inventory and ordering policies and work focusing on the control mechanism provided by quantity discounts in channel coordination it is shown that the optimal all unit quantity discount policy is equivalent to the optimal incremental quantity discount policy in achieving channel coordination furthermore it is shown that quantity discounts alone are not sufficient to guarantee joint profit maximization the analyses of the general models are illustrated by specific analytical results obtained for a given demand function