pathways to a low carbon economy estimations on macroeconomic costs and potential of carbon emission abatement in beijing abstract developing reliable frameworks to estimate the potential of co2 emission abatement and its associated costs merits urgent attention this study aims to estimate the potential as well as macroeconomic costs of co2 emission abatement in beijing using the industrial economy as the basis multiobjective programming and genetic algorithm are integrated into the input output analysis several important findings have been gathered in the study 1 the abatement cost varies between 259 97 and 535 46 per ton at different rates of economic growth 2 a reinforced emission abatement target can induce higher macroeconomic costs 3 an inverse u shaped relationship between co2 reduction cost and gdp growth rate was found when gdp growth rate is above the threshold value of 7 marginal abatement costs decrease rapidly in parallel with gdp growth when the gdp growth rate is below 7 the marginal abatement cost increases significantly with economic growth 4 industries that have the highest and least potential of abatement have been identified for effectively reducing co2 emissions beijing needs to promote economic restructuring to maximize the potential of emission abatement and also fulfil the emission abatement target in a cost effective way this paper provides a quantitative approach to rationalize the policy design process of enacting emission targets and recommends cost effective abatement strategies

tax distortions and global climate policy abstract we consider the efficiency implications of policies to reduce global carbon emissions in a world with pre existing tax distortions we first note that the weak double dividend the proposition that the welfare improvement from a tax reform where environmental taxes are used to lower distorting taxes must be greater than the welfare improvement from a reform where the environmental taxes are returned in a lump sum fashion need not hold in a world with multiple distortions we then present a large scale computable general equilibrium model of the world economy with distortionary taxation we use this model to evaluate a number of policies to reduce carbon emissions we find that the weak double dividend is not obtained in a number of european countries results also demonstrate the point that the interplay between carbon policies and pre existing taxes can differ markedly across countries thus one must be cautious in extrapolating the results from a country specific analysis to other countries

purchasing power parity in the long run a cointegration approach this paper utilizes cointegration analysis to examine purchasing power parity relationships over a long time horizon the results indicate that the exchange rate is cointegrated strongly with the wholesale price index ratio and somewhat weakly with the consumer price index ratio the cointegrating coefficient between the exchange rate and the price ratio is close to one when cointegration is confirmed the hypothesis that the real exchange rate follows a random walk is rejected in most cases finally a new test for common trends finds no such common trends in exchange rates or price ratios copyright 1990 by ohio state university press

deviations from purchasing power parity in the long run this paper demonstrates that deviations from purchasing power parity reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data since this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper proposes an alternative explanation which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism this paper will demonstrate that deviations from purchasing power parity ppp reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible exchange rate periods for a wide variety of countries and in both monthly and annual data this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage the paper therefore proposes an alternative explanation which does not presuppose free trade in goods but which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism the major implication of the theory and the results is that ppp is as likely to be violated in the long as in the short run as an empirical matter deviations from ppp can be observed for most currencies at any instant see kravis et al 21 stockman 37 and genberg 15 among others these deviations are typically both cumulative and persistent the real exchange rate can remain on either side of parity for lengthy but variable time intervals of a year or more as a consequence the current consensus shared

sources of real exchange rate fluctuations empirical evidence from four pacific basin countries in international finance the competing hypothesis that the logarithms of real exchange rates appear to be well described as random walks during a period of floating rate has found some support studies by adler and lehmann 2 hakkio 12 and mark 18 are examples of work supporting this view if a real exchange rate process has been approximated to be non stationary it implies there is little tendency for the real exchange rate to be mean reverting and also that deviations from the purchasing power parity ppp are permanent modern models of exchange rate determination suggest that real shocks can induce permanent changes in the real exchange rate stockman 21 pointed out that according to the equilibrium approach the behavior of real exchange rates since the collapse of bretton woods could reflect not the importance of sluggish price level adjustment but rather the influence of real shocks with significant permanent components moreover the evidence in campbell and clarida 5 and huizinga 13 suggests that real exchange rates contain both permanent and transitory components with most of their variation explained by the permanent components however recent studies employing long run data or more powerful tests tend to confirm the ppp hypothesis studies by abuaf and jorion 1 kim 16 whitt 22 and diebold husted and rush 7 are four such examples their evidence shows that real exchange rates are stationary which implies that the behavior of real exchange rates are influenced by transitory nominal disturbances hence the validity of ppp remains at issue identifying the sources of exchange rate fluctuations is important not only for establishing the validity of ppp but also for achieving successful exchange rate stabilization attempts to stabilize exchange rate changes that are due to economic fundamentals could be futile and even harmful to the economy in addition measuring the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks on exchange rates is essential for exchange rate modeling if exchange rates are dominated by real shocks then the equilibrium approach offered by stockman 21 is appropriate in analyzing the behavior of exchange rates conversely if the evidence suggests the contrary then the disequilibrium approach of dornbusch 8 should be considered as an alternative as a consequence

revisiting prebisch and singer beyond the declining terms of trade thesis and on to technological capability development rather than the thesis of a secular decline in the commodity terms of trade prebisch and singer were more concerned with the income terms of trade consequently they advocated moderate import substitution is and recommended having it interweaved with export promotion ep to avoid technological dependence but achieve integrated industrialisation while coordinating is with ep prebisch emphasised enhancing indigenous technological densities and singer stressed building the indigenous capacities to create wealth that means while foreign direct investments should be attracted those activities should be managed and directed accordingly prebisch hoped to narrow the gap in centre periphery technological uneven development while singer aimed at tackling international dualism between rich and poor countries in the use of science and technology copyright the author 2012 published by oxford university press on behalf of the cambridge political economy society all rights reserved oxford university press

potential welfare and the sum of individual compensating or equivalent variations abstract we investigate under which conditions the sign of the sum of both the individual compensating and equivalent variations correctly indicates changes in potential welfare our results reproduce exactly those of chipman and moore for the national income test which did not rely on individual measures of welfare directly related to consumers preferences 1 i a necessary and sufficient condition for the new test to be valid is that individual preferences are identical and homothetic and 2 ii if the distribution of income is constant and preferences are homothetic then the new test is valid only if preferences are also identical

intra and extra union flexibility in meeting the european union s emission reduction targets the eu has proposed four flexibility mechanisms for the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions in the period 2013 2020 1 the emissions trade scheme ets a permit market between selected companies 2 trade in non ets allotments between member states 3 the clean development mechanism cdm to purchase offsets in developing countries and 4 trade in cdm warrants between member states this paper shows that aggregate abatement costs fall as flexibility increases however limited flexibility creates rents so that increasing flexibility raises costs in some member states costs are reduced more by the cdm than by non ets trade the cdm warrants market reduces costs by a small amount only market power is a real issue however the warrants market is obsolete in case there is non ets trade the cdm leads to price convergence between the ets and non ets market there would be one price for carbon in the european union if the proposed limits on cdm access are relaxed slightly

nonparametric modeling of carbon prices this paper constitutes the first exercise of nonparametric modeling applied to carbon markets the framework of analysis is carefully detailed and the empirical application unfolds in the case of bluenext spot and ecx futures prices the data is gathered in daily frequency from april 2005 to april 2010 first we document the presence of strong nonlinearities in the conditional mean functions second the conditional volatility functions reveal an asymmetric and heteroskedastic behavior which is dramatically different between carbon spot and futures logreturns the results for spot prices are also robust to subsamples decomposition third we show in an out of sample forecasting exercise that nonparametric modeling allows reducing the prediction error by almost 15 compared to linear ar models this latter result is confirmed by the diebold mariano pairwise test statistic

from production based to consumption based national emission inventories abstract under the united national framework convention of climate change unfccc countries are required to submit national emission inventories nei to benchmark reductions in greenhouse gas ghg emissions depending on the definition and system boundary of the nei the mitigation options and priorities may vary the territorial system boundary used by the unfccc has been critiqued for not including international transportation and potentially causing carbon leakage to address these issues past literature has argued in favour of using consumption based nei in climate policy this article discusses several issues in moving from the standard production based nei to consumption based nei first two distinct accounting approaches for constructing consumption based nei are presented the approaches differ in the allocation of intermediate consumption of imported products second a consistent method of weighting production based and consumption based nei is discussed this is an extension of the previous literature on shared responsibility to nei third due to increased uncertainty and a wide system boundary it may be difficult to implement consumption based nei directly into climate policy several alternative options for incorporating consumption based inventories into climate policy are discussed

what have we learned about policy and growth from cross country regressions economists have been seeking to comprehend why some countries are rich and others poor for well over 200 years a better understanding of the national policies associated with long run growth would both contribute to our ability to explain cross country differences in per capita incomes and provide a basis for making policy recommendations that could lead to improvements in human welfare recently economists have used cross country regressions to search for empirical linkages between longrun growth and indicators of national policies e g roger kormendi and philip meguire 1985 robert j barro 1991 the large cross country growth literature has identified various fiscal monetary trade exchange rate and financial policy indicators that are significantly correlated with longrun growth yet levine and david renelt 1992 show that many of these findings are fragile to small alterations in the conditioning information set that is small changes in the right hand side variables produce different conclusions regarding the relationship between individual policies and growth in this paper we take stock of what the profession has learned from cross country regression studies of policy and long run growth i limitations

looking towards policies supporting biofuels and technological change evidence from france abstract the increasing constraints on crude oil resources contribute to the emergence of liquid biofuels as an alternative for road transport fuels the european union eu parliament called for a 7 limit on crop based biofuels by 2030 and proposed increasing the incorporation target for advanced biofuels within the proposals under discussion in relation to the post 2020 eu renewable energy directive red ii by 2021 2030 the main objective of this work is to assess the economic impacts of the eu parliament s decision concerning first generation biofuels we also determine the conditions under which advanced biofuels could become available by examining the evolution of oil prices and public subsidies we employ a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium cge model calibrated on the french economy advanced biofuels are modelled as latent technology and we include biofuel by products our simulations provide guidelines for public decision makers to design alternative fiscal policies to support biofuels in a context of regulatory uncertainty

european energy policy a review this article presents the implemented policies of the european union in the broader field of energy and provides a picture of the union s strategy on energy related issues a brief historical background is provided covering the period from the beginning of the union s creation in 1951 when coal was considered as the heart of its economic growth up to 2012 policy development principles as well as the consultations that take place before the proposal of each option are also discussed implemented policies are classified into seven broad categories renewable energy energy efficiency and savings internal energy markets security of energy supply environmental protection nuclear energy and research and development for each category an introduction covering important milestones towards its development is followed by the presentation of the relevant policies and a description of their purpose

the economic effects of the eu biofuel target in this paper we use the cge model dart to assess the economic impacts and optimality of different aspects of the eu climate package a special focus is placed on the 10 biofuel target in the eu in particular we analyze the development in the biofuel sectors the effects on agricultural production and prices and finally overall welfare implications one of the main findings is that the eu emission targets alone lead to only minor increases in biofuel production additional subsidies are necessary to reach the 10 biofuel target this in turn increases european agricultural prices by up to 7 compared to a cost effective scenario in which the eu 20 emission reduction target is reached additional welfare losses occur due to separated carbon markets and the renewable quotas the biofuel target has relatively small negative or even positive welfare effects in some scenarios

eu climate policy up to 2020 an economic impact assessment in its fight against climate change the eu is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20 below 1990 levels by 2020 to meet this commitment the eu builds on segmented market regulation with an eu wide cap and trade system for emissions from energy intensive installations ets sectors and additional measures by each eu member state covering emission sources outside the cap and trade system the non ets sector furthermore the eu has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target in this paper we evaluate the economic impacts of eu climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of eu compliance cost

real and nominal exchange rates in the long run an empirical investigation abstract this paper reports on econometric tests of the hypothesis that purchasing power parity holds as a long run relationship using data on eight industrialized countries during the flexible exchange rate period the empirical work proceeds by i testing whether nominal exchange rates and relative price levels are co integrated and ii conducting impulse response analysis of long run exchange rate and relative price level changes to explain the data keynesian models suggest that shocks during the estimation period were due principally to exogenous shifts in aggregate demand while equilibrium models suggest that monetary factors have been relatively more important

the dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances we interpret fluctuations in gnp and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not we interpret the first as supply disturbances the second as demand disturbances demand disturbances have a hump shaped mirror image effect on output and unemployment the effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years

optimal climate policy is a utopia from quantitative to qualitative cost benefit analysis abstract the dominance of quantitative cost benefit analysis cba and optimality concepts in the economic analysis of climate policy is criticised among others it is argued to be based in a misplaced interpretation of policy for a complex climate economy system as being analogous to individual inter temporal welfare optimisation the transfer of quantitative cba and optimality concepts reflects an overly ambitious approach that does more harm than good an alternative approach is to focus the attention on extreme events structural change and complexity it is argued that a qualitative rather than a quantitative cba that takes account of these aspects can support the adoption of a minimax regret approach or precautionary principle in climate policy this means implement stringent ghg reduction policies as soon as possible

the role of permanent and transitory components in the fluctuations of latin american real exchange rates following the approach suggested by engel and kim 1999 we estimate the permanent and transitory components of the real exchange rates in four latin american countries for the period 1957 01 to 2002 04 results suggest that transitory component is the driving force of the real exchange rates in argentina and mexico a principal role of the permanent component is observed in the real exchange rates of brazil and chile estimates probabilities of the high variance regime allow to identify the principal events happened in these countries this information is closely related to nominal shocks and therefore it explains the significant role of this component in these countries

thailand s low carbon scenario 2050 the aim cge analyses of co2 mitigation measures climate change and co2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues recently thailand has proposed policies on ghg mitigation such as thailand s nationally appropriate mitigation action nama which aims at ghg mitigation in the energy sector this study used the computable general equilibrium cge model called aim cge model to analyse ghg mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage ccs technology in thailand results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more ghg reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand and increasing prices of emissions the ccs technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization in the energy security aspect the policy options in this study would improve energy security energy import dependency and co benefits of ghg mitigation in forms of improving local air quality results are also helpful to ghg mitigation policy in developing countries

sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates this paper attempts to distinguish empirically real versus nominal sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates the distinction is obtained by imposing the following restriction on the bivariate vector autoregression of real and nominal exchange rates over the current flexible rate period nominal shocks are required to have no permanent effect on the level of the real exchange rate given this identification scheme the author analyzes the dynamic effects and relative importance of real and nominal shocks with regards to exchange rates the findings indicate that real shocks dominate nominal shocks for both exchange rate series over short and long frequencies copyright 1992 by mit press

does the exchange rate follow a random walk a monte carlo study of four tests for a random walk abstract several authors have urged that real and nominal exchange rates follow a random walk conditions under which the exchange rate follows a random walk are reviewed in this paper many of these do not appear to hold therefore the empirical evidence presents a puzzle some evidence suggets the exchange rate follows a random walk while other evidence suggests the opposite should be true this paper attempts to reconcile the evidence it is argued that the tests for a random walk have low power monte carlo evidence on four tests for a random walk is presented that suppors this claim

the regional economic impacts of biofuels a review of multisectoral modelling techniques and evaluation of applications allan g j the regional economic impacts of biofuels a review of multisectoral modelling techniques and evaluation of applications regional studies the regional economic impact of biofuel production depends upon a number of interrelated factors the specific biofuels feedstock and production technology employed the sector s embeddedness in the rest of the economy through its demand for local resources and the extent to which new activity is created these issues can be analysed using multisectoral economic models some studies use input output io and social accounting matrix sam modelling frameworks whilst a nascent computable general equilibrium cge literature has begun to examine the regional impact of biofuel development this paper reviews compares and evaluates these approaches for modelling the regional economic impacts of biofuels

economic growth and the structure of long term development this volume collects some of the papers presented at the 82nd round table conference of the international economic association that was organised in collaboration with fondazione eni enrico mattei the book considers different approaches to the analysis of economic growth and it is organised in five parts par i is devoted to empirical evidence part ii contains six papers which present a series of models based on different approaches but with special emphasis on endogenous growth and on schumpeterian models of growth and fluctuations part iii of the book is devoted to the impact of international trade on economic development part iv examines the effects of economic development on the natural environment the final part of the book part v contains the concluding evaluations contributors p aghion r aversi d ben david g bertola o castellino f donati g dosi w easterly s fabiani c freeman r goodwin j helliwell e helpman p howitt r king m landesmann r levine s lombardini k g maler w d nordhaus l l pasinetti s rebelo a sen l soete r m solow m syrquin b verspagen s zervos

on modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change with climate change as prototype example this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low probability high impact catastrophes even when updated by bayesian learning uncertain structural parameters induce a critical tail fattening of posterior predictive distributions such fattened tails have strong im plications for situations like climate change where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds on overall damages this paper shows that the economic consequences of fat tailed structural uncertainty along with unsureness about high temperature damages can readily outweigh the effects of discounting in climate change policy analysis

the economic and budgetary impact of climate policy in portugal carbon taxation in a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous public sector behavior the objective of this paper is to study hbox co 2 taxation in its dual role as a climate and fiscal policy instrument using a dynamic general equilibrium model of the portuguese economy which highlights the mechanisms of endogenous growth and incorporates a detailed modeling of public sector behavior and accounts in addition to the conventional marginal abatement cost curve we present a pair of complementary marginal abatement cost curves which highlight the impact hbox co 2 taxation has on economic performance and public debt and are therefore directly relevant to the terms of the policy debate these marginal abatement cost curves provide an effective tool for understanding the rate at which the environmental effectiveness economic costs and budgetary effects change with the tax level our results indicate that hbox co 2 taxes can be an important policy instrument for reducing emissions and promoting fiscal consolidation although this will come at a cost in terms of economic performance simulation results suggest that a tax of 17 00 euros per hbox tco 2 can satisfy existing climate policy targets the tax revenue effects together with reductions in public spending yield a 4 8 reduction in public debt these desirable outcomes come at the cost of a 1 3 reduction in gdp over the long term our analysis highlights that limiting public consumption expenditures can contribute to larger reductions in public debt albeit at a marginally greater cost to economic activity in turn reducing public investment although effective in reducing public debt produces a much larger negative economic impact this evokes an important trade off particularly pronounced in the present debates regarding austerity measures in the eu between fiscal consolidation efforts and efforts to promote convergence to eu standards of living these results further highlight that modeling assumptions with respect to public spending decision are not innocuous an exogenous trajectory for public spending suggests substantially smaller gdp effects and substantially larger public debt effects for any given emissions target

a reconsideration of import substitution this paper studies the origins of an import substitution strategy of development summarizes the consequences of that strategy and reviews the problems that led to its failure the fundamental difficulty was its discouragement of the indigenous social learning necessary for sustained independent development the emergence of an outward oriented minimal government strategy is due to the success of korea and taiwan this strategy fails to recognize that social learning requires a strong role for national agents and that this role can be penalized by undue openness an effective strategy must protect and induce domestic learning without penalizing exporting

the long run behavior of the real exchange rate a reconsideration using a new statistical test this paper provides empirical evidence that the real exchange rate is not a random walk if the real exchange rate were a random walk deviations from purchasing power parity could be expected to become unbounded as the forecast horizon became longer recently christopher a sims proposed a test based on bayesian posterior odds ratios that is designed to discriminate between a unit root and a large but stationary autocorrelation coefficient this paper applies the sims test to real exchange rate data for six industrial countries the results reject the random walk hypothesis copyright 1992 by ohio state university press

hyteresis in import prices the beachhead effect this paper shows that temporary real exchange rate fluctuations can have persistent hysteretic effects on trade specifically when market entry costs are sunk sufficiently large exchange rate shocks alter domestic market structure and thereby induce hysteresis this simple result has strong implications for exchange rate theory t rade policy and estimation of trade equations empirical evidence su ggests that the recent dollar overvaluation induced hysteresis in u s import prices namely the aggregate pass through equation of exchange rates to import prices shifted in the 1980s the shift s nature and timing is broadly consistent with the hysteresis hypothesis copyright 1988 by american economic association

development paradigm failures over time the international development community has advocated various development paradigms but countries following these paradigms have often performed poorly we provide an explanation for this poor performance in our model the political leader of a developing country chooses a policy and whether to implement it in an honest or corrupt manner these choices affect domestic production and aid inflows production is high when productive capacity is high and when the policy is appropriate in the country specific circumstances and implemented honestly aid inflows are high when the policy is close to the paradigm in equilibrium countries with low productive capacity and high corruption resulting from weak political institutions follow the paradigm more closely hence our model suggests that development paradigms have a tendency to fail because they are primarily followed by countries that would fail anyway we provide empirical evidence in support of the main assumptions and results

compensating variation consumer s surplus and welfare the compensating variation was defined by j r hicks 1942 as the amount one would have to deduct from a person s income to make him just as well off after a change in prices and income as he had been in the initial situation if the compensating variation is positive the individual is better off under the new situation since the compensating variation furnishes a uniquely defined numerical cardinal indicator of welfare improvement it provides an implicit ranking of alternative prospective situations not only relative to the initial situation but also relative to each other in practice this appears to be how this and other tools of cost benefit analysis are actually used one is interested in knowing not only whether a particular bridge or a particular excise tax will lead to an improvement in welfare but which out of a set of alternative bridges or alternative tax systems will improve welfare the most 1 in this paper we analyze conditions under which the compensating variation can be validly used in this generalized sense these turn out to be precisely the same as conditions previously derived see our 1976 paper for the valid use of consumer s surplus as a welfare measure in our final section we analyze the problem of deriving the generalized equivalent and compensating variations either exactly or approximately from observable demand functions by means of generalizations of or alternatives to consumer s surplus

latin america s new economic model micro responses and economic restructuring abstract this paper introduces a special issue on the microeconomics of latin america under the new economic model nem the paper reviews the rationale and policies of the nem and analyzes the impact of the reforms at the macroeconomic sectoral and microeconomic levels at the firm level the contributions to this issue demonstrate that a considerable adjustment process is taking place as sectoral structural change indices demonstrate however this has not resulted in widespread shifts of resources between sectors nor has it resulted in significant improvement in overall employment productivity and growth the authors analyze the reasons for this disjuncture and suggest policy alternatives

an emerging equilibrium in the eu emissions trading scheme abstract the european union s emissions trading scheme ets is the key policy instrument of the european commission s climate change program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012 a critically important element of the eu ets is the establishment of a market determined price for eu allowances this article examines the extent to which several theoretically founded factors including economic growth energy prices and weather conditions determine the expected prices of the european union co 2 allowances during the 2005 through to the 2009 period the novel aspect of our study is that we examine heavily traded futures instruments that have an expiry date in phase 2 of the eu ets our study adopts both static and recursive versions of the johansen multivariate cointegration likelihood ratio test as well as a variation on this test with a view to controlling for time varying volatility effects our results are indicative of a new pricing regime emerging in phase 2 and point to a maturing market driven by the fundamentals these results are valuable both for traders of eu allowances and for those policy makers seeking to improve the design of the european union ets

is renewable energy a cost effective mitigation resource an application to the spanish electricity market abstract this paper evaluates the net effect of renewable energy policy in spain from 2002 to 2017 and calculates its cost effectiveness in terms of co2 emission reductions in the production of electricity our conclusions indicate that although the phasing out of feed in tariffs reduced the regulatory costs it also limited renewable participation in the electricity market leading to an increased electricity price and higher emissions according to our results the joint effect of i the value of avoided emissions due to renewable energy participation and ii the merit order effect was able to compensate for the regulatory costs subsidies up until 2010 while the sign of the net effect was reversed from 2011 to 2017 finally we find that the economic implications of emission reductions are highly dependent on how the social cost of carbon is measured

pro market institutions and global strategy the pendulum of pro market reforms and reversals we review the literature analyzing the impact of pro market institutions on firms global strategy we propose that the ideological tension between whether the government or the market should drive economic development results in a pendulum of pro market reforms and reversals that drive changes in firm strategy and performance much progress has been made in the analyses of pro market reforms and their impact on firms international strategies and performance however there is a need to further learn about four areas 1 the concept of pro market institutions in particular the variety of institutional dimensions the measures and the influence of informal institutions on firm strategies 2 the drivers of changes in pro market institutions especially firms influences and the co evolution of firm strategies and institutional changes 3 the implications of changes in pro market reforms for the interactions among integration diversification and internationalization strategies the causality chains connecting institutions and strategies and the reconfiguration of activities globally and 4 the non traditional moderators that alter the impact of pro market institutional dynamics on firms strategies such as country level political systems industry level competitor reactions and individual level managerial capabilities and perceptions

an ethanol blend wall shift is prone to increase petroleum gasoline demand abstract in 2010 the u s environmental protection agency announced a waiver allowing an increase in the fuel ethanol blend limit the blend wall from 10 e10 to 15 e15 justifications for the waiver are reduced vehicle fuel prices and less consumption of petroleum gasoline leading to greater energy security empirical investigations of this waiver using monte carlo simulations reveal an anomaly where a relaxation of this blend wall elicits a demand response under a wide range of elasticities this demand response can actually increase the consumption of petroleum gasoline and thus lead to greater energy insecurity the economics supporting this result and associated policy implications are developed and discussed

modeling the price dynamics of co2 emission allowances abstract in this paper we analyze the short term spot price behavior of carbon dioxide co 2 emission allowances of the new eu wide co 2 emissions trading system eu ets after reviewing the stylized facts of this new class of assets we investigate several approaches for modeling the returns of emission allowances due to different phases of price and volatility behavior in the returns we suggest the use of markov switching and ar garch models for stochastic modeling we examine the approaches by conducting an in sample and out of sample forecasting analysis and by comparing the results to alternative approaches our findings strongly support the adequacy of the models capturing characteristics like skewness excess kurtosis and in particular different phases of volatility behavior in the returns

marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions a meta analysis in this paper we carry out a meta analysis of recent studies into the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation policies that aim at the long term stabilisation of these gases in the atmosphere we find the cost estimates of the studies to be sensitive to the stringency of the stabilisation target the assumed emissions baseline the way in which the time profile of emissions is determined in the model the choice of control variable co2 only versus multigas the number of regions and energy sources in the model and to a lesser degree the scientific forum in which the study was developed we find that marginal abatement costs of the stringent long term targets that are currently considered by the european commission are still very uncertain but might exceed the costs that have been suggested by recent policy assessments

on international equity weights and national decision making on climate change abstract estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions require the aggregation of monetised impacts of climate change over people with different incomes and in different jurisdictions implicitly or explicitly such estimates assume a social welfare function and hence a particular attitude towards equity and justice we show that previous approaches to equity weighting are inappropriate from a national decision maker s point of view because domestic impacts are not valued at domestic values we propose four alternatives sovereignty altruism good neighbour and compensation with different views on concern for and liability towards foreigners the four alternatives imply radically different estimates of the social cost of carbon and hence the optimal intensity of climate policy

fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets a mean variance portfolio theory approach monte carlo simulations of gas coal and nuclear plant investment returns are used as inputs of a mean variance portfolio optimization to identify optimal base load generation portfolios for large electricity generators in liberalized electricity markets we study the impact of fuel electricity and co2 price risks and their degree of correlation on optimal plant portfolios high degrees of correlation between gas and electricity prices as observed in most european markets reduce gas plant risks and make portfolios dominated by gas plant more attractive long term power purchase contracts and or a lower cost of capital can rebalance optimal portfolios towards more diversified portfolios with larger shares of nuclear and coal plants

china s foreign trade and climate change a case study of co2 emissions abstract the globalization of trade has numerous environmental implications trade creates a mechanism for consumers to shift environmental pollution associated with their consumption to other countries carbon leakage exerts great influences on international trade and economy applying an input output approach the paper estimates the amount of carbon dioxide co2 embodied in china s foreign trade during 1997 2007 it is found that 10 03 26 54 of china s annual co2 emissions are produced during the manufacture of export goods destined for foreign consumers while the co2 emissions embodied in china s imports accounted for only 4 40 1997 and 9 05 2007 of that we also estimate that the rest of world avoided emitting 150 18 mt co2 in 1997 increasing to 593 mt in 2007 as a result of importing goods from china rather than manufacturing the same type and quantity of goods domestically during 1997 2007 the net additional global co2 emissions resulting from china s exports were 4894 mt then the paper divides the trade embodied emissions into scale composition and technical effect it was found that scale and composition effect increased the co2 emissions embodied in trade while the technical effect offset a small part of them finally its mechanism and policy implications are presented

economic performance through time prize lecture to the memory of alfred nobel december 9 1993 this abstract was borrowed from another version of this item

implementing a biofuel economy in the eu lessons from the sustoil project and future perspectives for next generation biofuels abstract the aim of this article is to illustrate main economic and environmental ghg emission reductions effects of implementing a biofuel economy and to discuss the potential of establishing advanced biofuels in the european union the study is based on the recently completed eu fp7 sustoil research project the main question addressed is the eu policy objective of achieving 20 ghg emission reductions using 20 of renewables by the year 2020 to contribute to the achievement of this policy we run and execute through a computable general equilibrium model a simulation experiment of implementing a bio based economy using biorefineries in the production process main results suggest that a biorefineries working from oil seeds and their by products will lead to a large increase in the amount of this crop grown particularly in eastern europe b this increase will be accompanied by a decrease in sectoral gdp in several other areas c oil and electricity prices will generally fall in across the eu with a particularly notable trend in eastern europe and d a reduction in carbon emissions is achieved but this will be insufficient to meet the eu 20 target this latter result would suggest to speed the technological process towards the use of next generation biofuels in the eu furthermore these results advocate for a leading role expected to play by eastern eu countries over the next years the expected increase in the cultivation of energy crops could conflict with the availability of land for food crops the potential for establishing next generation biofuels in the eu with adequate support policies would be essential for guaranteeing energy and food security in the long run

towards a common renewable future the system gmm approach to assess the convergence in renewable energy consumption of eu countries abstract this paper investigates whether the contribution of renewable energy sources to primary energy consumption is characterized by a convergence process across core european union eu countries over the period from 1990 to 2014 the system generalized method of moments gmm methodology is employed for 5 year span panel data of 14 eu members the findings indicate strong evidence for both the absolute unconditional and conditional convergence of renewables share in primary energy consumption across eu 14 countries moreover the control variables namely co2 emissions per gdp fdi inward stock and electricity prices contribute to the speed of convergence hence the implicit rate of conditional convergence is higher than that of absolute convergence the empirical evidence suggests that the energy mixes of core eu members have a tendency to become similar in the long run as the shares of res in primary energy consumption converge to the average level nonetheless it does not necessarily imply that this average would be 20 target which is to be achieved by 2020 according to eu directive 2009 28 ec

real exchange rates under the gold standard purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics empirically it is also one of the most hotly contested numerous recent studies for example have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post bretton woods float and have reached different conclusions we assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons first the post 1973 data contain by definition only a very limited amount of the low frequency information relevant for examination of long run parity second the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to admissible low frequency dynamics both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper with dramatic results we construct a new data set of 16 real exchange rates covering more than a century of the classic gold standard period and we study deviations from parity using long memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean

intra union flexibility of non ets emission reduction obligations in the european union the eu proposal on greenhouse gas emission reduction has 28 targets for 2020 an eu wide one for co2 emissions covered by the european trading system ets and one target for non ets emissions per member state implementation is more expensive than needed i consider three alternative proposals to reduce costs in the irish proposal member states can purchase ets permits to offset excess non ets emissions in the polish proposal member states can sell excess non ets emissions in the ets in the swedish proposal member states can trade their non ets allocations i compare these alternatives to the default policy no flexibility outside the ets and the cost effective solution full flexibility i calibrate a simple model to the results of the eu impact assessment which did not disclose all details and made odd assumptions the non ets allocation exceeds the projected emissions for three member states the alternative flexibility mechanisms would be used to only a limited extent but would cut the costs of meeting the target the swedish and polish proposals come closest to the cost effective solution because of the hot air the irish proposal performs best if there are negative surprises in either abatement costs or emissions the swedish proposal will become policy

a cost benefit analysis of the eu 20 20 2020 package the european commission did not publish a cost benefit analysis for its 2020 climate package this paper fills that gap comparing the marginal costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction the uncertainty about the marginal costs of climate change is large and skewed and estimates partly reflect ethical choices e g the discount rate the 2010 carbon price in the eu emissions trading system can readily be justified by a cost benefit analysis emission reduction is not expensive provided that policy is well designed a condition not met by planned eu policy it is probably twice as expensive as needed costing one in ten years of economic growth the eu targets for 2020 are unlikely to meet the benefit cost test for a standard discount rate 3 pure rate of time preference the benefit cost ratio is rather poor 1 30 so that benefits need to be very much higher or costs very much lower than typically assumed to justify the 2020 targets only a very low discount rate 0 prtp would justify the 20 emission reduction target for 2020

choosing a monetary value of greenhouse gases in assessment tools a comprehensive review there is a societal need for using monetary estimates of social impacts of co2 and other greenhouse gases in different assessment tools such as cost benefit analysis and life cycle assessment a number of estimates are available in the literature since these differ by several orders of magnitude there is ambiguity and confusion about which to use this review aims to give some guidance on this issue the variation in carbon value estimates depends on several uncertain aspects which will remain uncertain including climate sensitivity assumptions about future emissions and decision makers ethical standpoints hence there is no single correct monetary value for co2 it will depend on the ethical standpoint of the user due to this estimates of social costs of co2 emissions cannot be used for calculating an optimal emission level although they can inform such assessments it is suggested that marginal abatement cost values are used for emissions capped by binding targets in short term assessments and that social cost of carbon values should be used for all other emissions benchmark principles for choosing a monetary carbon value are suggested along with associated estimates depending on the choices made with regard to ethical standpoints and assumptions about future emissions and climate sensitivity estimates can be significantly higher than the ones typically used in assessment tools today the estimates need continuous updating and there is need for better understanding and communication around the limitations and uncertainties involved

woody biomass processing potential economic impacts on rural regions abstract this paper estimates the economic and environmental impacts of introducing woody biomass processing wbp into a rural area in central appalachia wbp is among the most promising additions to energy generation portfolios for reducing import dependency while at the same time providing economic opportunity to stimulate regional economies especially in rural regions where economic development options are often limited we use an input output framework to assess wbp under three different pathways fast pyrolysis ethanol and coal biomass to liquids we find that the proposed wbp will increase regional output by 0 5 1 3 of gross regional product it will increase income by 17 32 to 51 31 million dollars each year and regional employment by 218 1 1127 8 jobs depending on the chosen pathway of these impacts the direct portions are 63 77 of the total impact depending on the chosen pathway the economic analysis and the results from the accompanying environmental assessment show that only the ethanol pathway has both economic and environmental benefits we conclude that because long run economic development strategies in rural regions are limited and negative impacts do not alter dramatically the regional environmental profile regional policymakers should include wbp among their development portfolio options

the economic effects of climate change greenhouse gas emissions are fundamental both to the world s energy system and to its food production the production of co2 the predominant gas implicated in climate change is intrinsic to fossil fuel combustion specifically thermal energy is generated by breaking the chemical bonds in the carbohydrates oil coal and natural gas and oxidizing the components to co2 and h2o one cannot have cheap energy without carbon dioxide emissions similarly methane ch4 emissions an important greenhouse gas in its own right are necessary to prevent the build up of hydrogen in anaerobic digestion and decomposition one cannot have beef mutton dairy or rice without methane emissions climate change is the mother of all externalities larger more complex and more uncertain than any other environmental problem the sources of greenhouse gas emissions are more diffuse than any other environmental problem every company every farm every household emits some greenhouse gases the effects are similarly pervasive weather affects agriculture energy use health and many aspects of nature which in turn affects everything and everyone the causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse and those in low income countries who contribute least to climate change are most vulnerable to its effects climate change is also a long term problem some greenhouse gases have an atmospheric life time measured in tens of thousands of years the quantities of emissions involved are enormous in 2000 carbon dioxide emissions alone and excluding land use change were 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide tco2

credibility and reputation building in the developmental state a model with east asian applications abstract we use a game theoretic model to analyze the role of credibility reputation and investment coordination in a developmental state our model focuses on why a soft state serving narrow social groups so often obtains in less developed countries and under what conditions a hard or developmental state can emerge the model highlights the dilemma that although state and private sector alike may want economic growth both must simultaneously invest to achieve it but the equilibrium outcome analogous to the prisoner s dilemma is investment by neither even when initial conditions are favorable and a state is potentially developmental with the genuine capability to elicit private sector investment this may not materialize and an equilibrium of low or no investment will prevail to avoid this deadlock and foster growth the successful developmental state must demonstrate commitment by promoting its developmental credentials through a process of reputation building a consequent incentive to act tough together with seeming advantages of authoritarianism in implementing the developmental state may help to explain why it is often associated with an authoritarian political system

the eu 20 20 2020 targets an overview of the emf22 assessment three computable general equilibrium models are used to estimate the economic implications of a stylized version of eu climate policy if implemented at the lowest possible cost the 20 emissions reduction would lead to a welfare loss of 0 5 2 0 by 2020 second best policies increase costs a policy with two carbon prices one for the ets one for the non ets could increase costs by up to 50 a policy with 28 carbon prices one for the ets one each for each member state could increase costs by another 40 the renewables standard could raise the costs of emissions reduction by 90 overall the inefficiencies in policy lead to a cost that is 100 125 too high the models differ greatly in the detail of their results the ets non ets split may have a negligible impact on welfare while the renewables standard may even improve welfare the models agree however that the distortions introduced by total eu package imply a substantial welfare loss over and above the costs needed to meet the climate target the marginal total and excess costs reported here are notably higher than those in the impact assessment of the european commission

costs of reducing global carbon emissions po rojecting the costs of reducing carbon emissions is extremely important and exceedingly difficult such projections are an integral component of cost benefit analyses of alternative policies for example for the global climate policy analysis described by william nordhaus in this symposium moreover the nature of the climate change problem dictates that costs be incurred long before benefits can be realized or accurately measured consequently the political spotlight predictably focuses on the cost estimates whenever specific policy options are contemplated projecting the costs of reducing carbon emissions is difficult because many assumptions must be made about how the world will evolve over a very long period of time with and without a control program typically some of these assumptions like population growth are taken from outside sources other factors like the response of energy demand to changes in economic output or energy prices are the result of modeling the behavior of economic actors in response to exogenous stimuli considerable uncertainty exists about both the exogenous factors and the best way to model the behavioral responses the global nature of the climate change problem adds yet another complication to the cost analysis scientists have concluded that it is the global concentration of carbon in the atmosphere that influences climate moreover since carbon in the atmosphere gets mixed more or less uniformly emissions anywhere change concentrations everywhere but with a long lead time current global carbon emissions are estimated to be only about 4 percent of the stock of co2 in the atmosphere attributable to human activity and about

a public choice view on the climate and energy policy mix in the eu how do the emissions trading scheme and support for renewable energies interact abstract in this paper we analyze the rationale for an energy policy mix when the european emissions trading scheme ets is considered from a public choice perspective that is we argue that the economic textbook model of the ets implausibly assumes 1 efficient policy design and 2 climate protection as the single objective of policy intervention contrary to these assumptions we propose that the ets originates from a political bargaining game within a context of multiple policy objectives in particular the emissions cap is negotiated between regulators and emitters with the emitters abatement costs as crucial bargaining variable this public choice view yields striking implications for an optimal policy mix comprising res supporting policies whereas the textbook model implies that the ets alone provides sufficient climate protection our analysis suggests that support for renewable energies 1 contributes to a more effective ets design and 2 may even increase the overall efficiency of climate and energy policy if other externalities and policy objectives besides climate protection are considered thus our analysis also shows that a public choice view not necessarily entails negative evaluations concerning efficiency and effectiveness of a policy mix

welfare and sustainability effects of dietary recommendations the paper develops a framework combining a model of rational behaviour under dietary constraints an epidemiological model of diet related mortality and a life cycle analysis model of environmental impact which permits the ex ante assessment of dietary recommendations in multiple sustainability dimensions i e taste cost welfare effect deaths avoided reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and acidification it is applied to compare in a french context the relative effects and efficiency of six popular sustainable diet recommendations the results confirm the synergies between the health and environmental dimensions healthy eating recommendations usually have a positive effect on the environment although some exceptions exist most of the sustainable diet recommendations appear highly cost effective but those most commonly promoted on health grounds e g targeting consumption of salt fruits and vegetables and saturated fat rank highest in terms of overall efficiency moreover the valuation of benefits indicates that in most cases health benefits are significantly larger than environmental benefits overall the analysis reveals some under investment in the promotion of sustainable diet recommendations in france the general lack of enthusiasm in policy circles for informational measures promoting behavioural change may reflect unrealistic expectations about the speed and magnitude of dietary change rather than an objective assessment of the efficiency of those measures

impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices a review and meta analysis of recent evidence abstract the literature on the impacts of biofuels on agricultural commodity prices is characterized by contradictory findings we review studies published between 2007 and 2014 that estimate the effects of u s corn ethanol policy on corn prices and find estimates ranging from nil to over 80 such divergent results make it difficult to assess the merits of alternative biofuel policies to bring more clarity to the issue and facilitate comparisons across studies we assemble a database of over 150 medium to long run estimates of the effect of corn ethanol production on corn prices from 29 published studies we first normalize corn price impacts by the change in corn ethanol volume to control for the large differences in ethanol quantities across scenarios we then conduct a meta analysis to identify the factors that drive the remaining variation in corn price impacts across studies in addition to ethanol volumes we find that modeling framework projection year inclusion of ethanol co products and biofuel production from other feedstocks explain much of the differences in price effects the results indicate that a one billion gallon expansion of the us corn ethanol mandate in the year 2015 would lead to a three to four percent increase in corn prices with smaller price changes projected in future years

developed country mnes investing in developing economies progress and prospect this study reviews research from 1970 through 2016 on developed country multinational enterprises dmnes entering and competing in developing economies to identify the current state of knowledge of this research and push it further we review the literature using bibliometric and qualitative content analyses covering leading journals and books we articulate frontier issues that are understudied yet critical to both theorization and practice of dmnes in developing economies we discuss the findings and conclusions from prior research along five key areas 1 entering developing economies 2 organizing local activities 3 managing alliances and joint ventures 4 competing in dynamic environments and 5 dealing with institutions governments and society we offer prospective insights into future agenda that have important implications for mne strategies and decisions and propose frontier directions that encompass strategic localization reverse transfer and adaptation co evolution with local business ecosystems reorganizing and restructuring and strategic responses to institutional and market complexity

the impacts of biofuel targets on land use change and food supply a global cge assessment this study analyzes the long term impacts of large scale expansion of biofuels on land use change food supply and prices and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model augmented by a land use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors the study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level however the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or regions the expansion of biofuels would cause significant land re allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries the results also suggest that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in food supply although the magnitude of the impact on food supply at the global level is not as large as perceived earlier it would be significant in developing countries like india and those in sub saharan africa agricultural commodities such as sugar corn and oil seeds which serve as the main biofuel feedstocks would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the existing targets

assessment of european union transition scenarios with a special focus on the issue of carbon leakage this paper uses the model gemini e3 to simulate and assess the transition scenario to 2020 framed by the european union in its energy climate directive and it raises several issues in this connection after a brief description of the model the paper presents the results of the scenarios mainly the values of the major indicators of carbon price both in the ets and in non ets sectors and the welfare cost of the eu policy under the various configurations considered while it is independent of the scenario in the ets sector in the non ets sector the value of carbon is very sensitive to the provisions of the directive and in particular the option of resorting to the flexibility mechanisms the welfare cost also varies significantly according to scenarios and its value for the entire eu is more than double in the scenario closest to the directive as compared to the least cost one the paper also addresses the very sensitive issue of carbon leakage and argues in favor of a new concept of net leakage the analysis shows that while carbon leakage may affect some specific sectors at the aggregate level it does not represent a real concern with a magnitude of at most a few percent of ghg abatement by annex b countries

convergence of interest rates around the pacific rim this article applies the panel data unit root tests provided by im pesaran and shin discussion paper 1997 to examine the interest rate convergence of small open asian countries with major financial centres with monthly data from 1988 1 to 1997 6 it was found that the nominal interest rates of these countries converge to the us rates rather than to japan s this finding is consistent with the view that the monetary authorities of non japan asian economies pegged their exchange rates overwhelmingly to the dollar rather than the yen before the financial crisis of 1997

coherence causality and effectiveness of the eu environmental policy system results of complementary statistical and econometric analyses this paper presents the first empirical test of coherence i e consistency of policies within a framework causality i e logical priority of objectives over policies and effectiveness i e ability of policies to tackle challenges as defined by objectives of the overall eu environmental policy system to do so i applied complementary statistical cross sectional and time series and econometric dynamic tri probit analyses to an original panel dataset based on addressed issues i e pollution vs resource trans boundary vs domestic flow vs stock rather than on implemented policies i e eu legislation aiming at optimal pollution production optimal resource use and market competition it would be impossible to perform similar analyses by referring to realized policies rather than tackled issues due to the unbalanced sample characterizing the former with respect to the latter as well as due to overlapping objectives interrelated policies and non univocal relationships between objectives and policies in contrast with previous studies of single eu environmental policies characteristics of the eu environmental policy or eu environmental objectives i found that the overall eu environmental policy system is internally coherent dynamically causal and ex ante effective moreover the evidence suggests that many issues are correlated trans boundary issues became more relevant in 2012 pollution production was more significant than resource use and flow issues were more important than stock issues from 1995 to 2010 finally i show that few objectives overlapped a safe environment objective 1987 1997 was preferred to a greenhouse gas ghg reduction objective 2003 2012 but pursued with a 2 year lag although the latter has recently become preferred to the former in addition a ghg reduction objective was preferred to a sustainable development objective 1998 2002

oil and democracy endogenous natural resources and the political resource curse by the end of the twentieth century a scholarly consensus emerged around the idea that oil fuels authoritarianism and slow growth the natural abundance once thought to be a blessing was unconditionally and then later only conditionally a curse for political and economic development we re examine the relationship between oil wealth and political regimes challenging the conventional wisdom that such natural resource rents lead to authoritarian outcomes we contend that most efforts to examine the causal linkages between natural resource abundance and political regime have been complicated by the likelihood that both democracy and oil revenue are endogenous to the industrialization processes itself particularly in its developmentalist form our quantitative results based on an analysis of global data from 1970 to 2006 show that both resource endogeneity and several mechanisms of intraregional regime diffusion are powerful determinants of democratic outcomes qualitative evidence from the history of industrialization in latin america yields support for our proposed causal claim oil wealth is not necessarily a curse and may even be a blessing with respect to democratic development

a review article the case against the use of the sum of compensating variations in cost benefit analysis this paper presents a case against the use of the sum of compensating varia tions as a cost benefit test we argue that 1 the ethical judginents implied by the test are not defensible 2 positive sums of compensating variations occur without potential pareto improvements resulting in social preference reversals without simultaneous scitovsky re versals 3 when lump sum transfers are feasible a positive sum of compensating variations is necessary but not sufficient for a potential pareto improvement 4 in order to eliminate preference reversals and intransitivities all households must have almost identical quasi homothetic preferences a condition that is not satisfied in real economies