sticky prices and monetary policy evidence from disaggregated us data this paper disentangles fluctuations in disaggregated prices due to macroeconomic and sectoral conditions using a factor augmented vector autoregression estimated on a large data set on the basis of this estimation we establish eight facts 1 macroeconomic shocks explain only about 15 of sectoral inflation fluctuations 2 the persistence of sectoral inflation is driven by macroeconomic factors 3 while disaggregated prices respond quickly to sector specific shocks their responses to aggregate shocks are small on impact and larger thereafter 4 most prices respond with a significant delay to identified monetary policy shocks and show little evidence of a price puzzle contrary to existing studies based on traditional vars 5 categories in which consumer prices fall the most following a monetary policy shock tend to be those in which quantities consumed fall the least 6 the observed dispersion in the reaction of producer prices is relatively well explained by the degree of market power 7 prices in sectors with volatile idiosyncratic shocks react rapidly to aggregate monetary policy shocks 8 the sector specific components of prices and quantities move in opposite directions

post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of does monetary policy matter in the spirit of james tobin christina and david romer s paper does monetary policy matter advocates the so called narrative approach to causal inference we demonstrate that this method will not sustain causal inference first it is impossible to distinguish monetary shocks from oil shocks as causes of recessions second a world in which the fed only announces intentions to act cannot be distinguished from one in which it in fact acts third the techniques of dynamic simulation used in the romers study are inappropriate and quantitatively misleading and finally their approach provides no basis for establishing causal asymmetry

aggregate consequences of limited contract enforceability we study a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance investment with optimal financial contracts because of enforceability problems contracts are constrained efficient we show that limited enforceability amplifies the impact of technological innovations on aggregate output this implies that economies with lower enforceability of contracts are characterized by greater macroeconomic volatility a key assumption for the amplification result is that defaulting entrepreneurs are not excluded from the market

interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts the effects of monetary policy existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed substantial room for disagreement among economists remains new evidence based on multivariate time series studies of several countries is presented while certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries others particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy

optimal monetary policy with durable consumption goods abstract we document that the durable goods sector is much more interest sensitive than the nondurables sector and then investigate the implications of these sectoral differences for monetary policy we formulate a two sector general equilibrium model that is calibrated both to match the sectoral responses to a monetary shock derived from our empirical var and to imply an empirically realistic degree of sectoral output volatility and comovement while the social welfare function involves sector specific output gaps and inflation rates the performance of the optimal policy rule can be closely approximated by a simple rule that targets a weighted average of aggregate wage and price inflation in contrast a rule that stabilizes a more narrow measure of final goods price inflation performs poorly in terms of social welfare

wasteful public spending and state aid control the conventional academic rationale for supranational intervention to curb state aids to industry appeals to transfrontier spillovers however competition policy practitioners often speak in terms of curbing wasteful spending regardless of whether or not any international spillovers are involved although it is often argued that such wasteful spending calls not for supranational state aid control but rather for better domestic political accountability this paper argues that wasteful spending may be a by product of accountability not a symptom of its absence specifically we describe a model in which politicians fund projects that are wasteful as a way to signal their diligence and voters rationally reward them for this we discuss implications for the role of state aid control mechanisms 2006 by the european economic association

inventories as factors of production and economic fluctuations this paper presents a theory of inventory investment by stage of processing and uses it to examine the role of inventory investment in economic fluctuations the model in which inventories are treated as factors of production is estimated for four durable goods industries three conclusions emerge from the estimation first the estimates generally satisfy the theoretical restrictions second the elasticity of inventory demand with respect to output is high indicating an important accelerator effect finally the estimates suggest that shifts in the demand for inventories are an important source of economic fluctuations copyright 1989 by american economic association

firms and aggregate dynamics abstract we investigate the role of permanent and transitory shocks for firms and aggregate dynamics we find that permanent shocks to productivity and permanent shifts in the composition of output explain at least four fifths of firms dynamics however these permanent shocks are almost uncorrelated across firms and are therefore less relevant for aggregate dynamics transitory shocks on the other hand are not very important at the firm level but they account for most of the volatility of aggregate hours and output because they are significantly correlated across firms finally we try to make some progress on the interpretation of the shocks

venture capital and the macroeconomy i develop a model of venture capital vc intermediation that quantitatively explains central empirical facts about vc activity and can evaluate its macroeconomic relevance the impact of vc backed innovations is significantly larger than suggested by observed aggregate venture exit valuations even after accounting for large exposures to systematic and uninsurable idiosyncratic risks the risk properties of venture capital play a quantitatively important role in both explaining empirical regularities and shaping the value of ventures contributions to economic growth the model is analytically tractable and yields exact solutions despite the presence of matching frictions imperfect risk sharing and endogenous growth received january 16 2018 editorial decision november 7 2018 by editor stijn van nieuwerburgh

the prime criteria for private sector participation in renewable energy investment in the middle east case study iran abstract to have sustainable electricity generation from renewable energy resources economically competitive more privatization is needed in this sector true understanding based on transparent information is one of the salient necessities for the private sector to invest in the energy business in this article the researchers are to recognize the targeted factors considered by the private sector in order to improve their participation in the electricity generation markets from renewable sources in the middle east the results illustrate that the most important factors are governmental policies consumption markets and engineering efficiency these recognized factors then are classified from different aspects such as techno engineering business and relevant policies and the environment

the magnitude of menu costs direct evidence from large u s supermarket chains we use store level data to document the exact process of changing prices and to directly measure menu costs at five multistore supermarket chains we show that changing prices in these establishments is a complex process requiring dozens of steps and a nontrivial amount of resources the menu costs average 105 887 year per store comprising 0 70 percent of revenues 35 2 percent of net margins and 0 52 price change these menu costs may be forming a barrier to price changes specifically 1 a supermarket chain facing higher menu costs due to item pricing laws that require a separate price tag on each item changes prices two and one half times less frequently than the other four chains 2 within this chain the prices of products exempt from the law are changed over three times more frequently than the products subject to the law in principle fixed costs of changing prices can be observed and measured in practice such costs take disparate forms in different firms and we have no data on their magnitude so the theory can be tested at best indirectly at worst not at all alan blinder 1991 p 90

international spillovers from euro area and us credit and demand shocks a focus on emerging europe abstract in this paper we examine the international effects of contractions in loan supply loan demand and aggregate demand in the euro area and the usa all three shocks have been at the forefront in spreading stress during the period of the global financial crisis and in particular so to countries that are strongly integrated with the euro area we find that these shocks decrease international output and total credit to a varying degree loan demand and aggregate demand shocks in the euro area trigger significant negative spillovers on output in most other regions evidence for global negative output effects of euro area loan supply shocks is fraught with considerable estimation uncertainty when these three types of shocks emanate from the usa we find significant negative spillovers on output also for loan supply shocks in general international effects on total credit are an order of magnitude larger than those on output with again more evidence that is significant for us than euro area shocks last and taking a regional stance our results indicate that economies from emerging europe are most vulnerable to all shocks considered through their strong economic integration with the euro area these economies are likewise exposed to euro area and us shocks and spillover effects are often larger than the domestic response in the country of shock origin

responding to policy change new business models for renewable energy cooperatives barriers perceived by cooperatives members abstract renewable energy cooperatives recs in germany have received considerable attention in recent years their number having risen to nearly a thousand since 2004 this growth has resulted largely from germany s feed in tariff system recent changes in this policy however have made the previous rec business models mostly unprofitable so recs are looking for new business models our study aims at identifying those new models and characterizing the implementation barriers recs face to this end we interviewed rec members and management and observed rec annual general meetings we found three significant barriers first risk aversion on the part of both members and management second concerns about the environmental impacts or the ethics of certain models that while legal are not felt to align with the intentions of lawmakers finally the lack of competencies and time of the mostly unsalaried rec management these barriers could put the future of recs at risk and so threaten the contributions recs make to the german energy transition professionalization partnerships and other strategies can help mitigate this risk if recs are to continue to play an important role in the energy transition policy makers would be wise to consider measures to support their continued growth

putty clay technology and stock market volatility abstract firms first order conditions imply that stock returns equal investment returns from the production technology much applied work uses the adjustment cost technology which implies that the realized return is high when the investment capital ratio is high this paper derives for an arbitrary stochastic discount factor the investment return implied by the putty clay technology the combination of capital heterogeneity and irreversibility creates a novel channel for return volatility the investment return is high when the ratio of investment to gross job creation is low empirically the putty clay feature helps account for u s stock market data

social status entry and predation the case of british shipping cartels 1879 1929 the authors incorporate social status and regional affiliation two variables of central sociological interest into an economic analysis of entry and predation they build on scott morton s 1997 examination of entry and predation in the merchant shipping industry and examine whether the social status of an entrant owner impacts on the predation behavior of the incumbent cartels they find that high social status entrants are significantly less likely 40 to be preyed upon than the low social status entrants they discuss several interpretations of this result subsequent analysis supports the hypothesis that cartel members use social status as an indicator of an entrant s propensity to be a cooperative cartel participant

is bank supervision central to central banking whether central banks should play an active role in bank supervision and regulation is being debated both in the united states and abroad while the bank of england has recently been stripped of its supervisory responsibilities and several proposals in the united states have advocated removing bank supervision from the federal reserve system other countries are considering enhancing central bank involvement in this area many of the arguments for and against these proposals hinge on the effect this change would have on the ability of the central bank to conduct monetary policy we find that confidential supervisory information on bank ratings significantly improves

technological diffusion and asset prices in this paper we demonstrate that the gradual diffusion of technology causes the stock market to exhibit a cyclical behavior more importantly we attribute sharp declines and increases in the stock market such as the ones that occurred in the early 1970s and mid 1990s in the united states to expected rapid technological diffusion

going beyond best technology and lowest price on renewable energy investors preference for service driven business models abstract renewable energy is becoming increasingly important for economies in many countries but still in an emerging industry renewable energy requires supportive energy policy helping firms to develop and protect competitive advantages in global competition as a guideline for designing such policy we consult well informed stakeholders within the renewable energy industry investors their preferences serve as explorative indicator for assessing which business models might succeed in competition to contribute to only limited research on renewable energy investors preferences we ask which business models investment managers for renewable energy prefer to invest in we report from an explorative study of 380 choices of renewable energy investment managers based on the stated preferences we modelled three generic business models to calculate the share of investors preferences we find exiting evidence a customer intimacy business model that proposes best services is much more preferred by investors than business models that propose lowest price or best technology policy makers can use those insights for designing policy that supports service driven business models for renewable energy with a scope on customer needs rather than technology or price additionally we state important implications for renewable energy entrepreneurs managers and research

macroeconomic factors and microlevel bank behavior we analyze the link between banks and the macroeconomy using a model that extends a macroeconomic var for the u s with a set of factors summarizing conditions in about 1 500 commercial banks we investigate how macroeconomic shocks are transmitted to individual banks and obtain the following main findings backward looking risk of a representative bank declines and bank lending increases following expansionary shocks forward looking risk increases following an expansionary monetary policy shock there is however substantial heterogeneity in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks which is due to bank size capitalization liquidity risk and the exposure to real estate and consumer loans

business structure in renewable energy industry key areas abstract diffusion of renewable energy utilization is difficult because of its entrepreneurial nature and related technological investment political and market uncertainties therefore evaluation of business structure based on traditional business models is difficult in this industry although many countries have actively developed renewable energy technologies by both governments and private sector business professionals are not still assured about participation and investment understanding the areas of business structure that lead to successful commercialization of renewable technologies has suitable research scope in this industry the objective of this article is to identify key areas of business structure to allow newcomers to enter successfully in the renewable energy industry from engineering policy and business aspects the innovative analysis leads to identification of seven sides of renewable energy business

identifying the macroeconomic effect of loan supply shocks the inability to clearly distinguish the effects of shocks to loan supply from those to loan demand has made it difficult to quantify the economic importance of the credit channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy this study provides an innovative approach to identifying loan supply shocks three different results confirm that loan supply shocks have been successfully isolated from shifts in loan demand our measure is particularly important for explaining inventory movements the component of gdp most dependent on bank lending the effect is present even during periods with strong loan demand and the effect remains even when the unpredictable part of the loan supply shock is isolated this identification enables us to show that loan supply shocks have had economically important effects on the u s economy

spatial growth and industry age between 1970 and 2000 employment growth across u s counties exhibited very different patterns in manufacturing and services whereas manufacturing employment growth was negatively related to initial manufacturing employment across the entire distribution of counties service employment growth was positively related to initial service employment for intermediate sized counties this paper presents a theory to rationalize these facts local sectoral growth is driven by technological diffusion across space and depends on the age of the sector the theory correctly predicts the relation between county employment growth and initial county employment in manufacturing at the turn of the 20th century

returns to investors in stocks in new industries i introduction one thousand dollars invested in america online s initial public offering ipo in march 1992 became 295 545 by the end of 2000 when aol was purchased by time warner this is an extraordinary payoff for shareholders over 5 per month while this investment has an outstanding return new industries have high risk and their stocks are likely to have high expected returns on the other hand the extraordinary behavior of dot corn stocks makes this conclusion less than obvious the stratospheric prices of dot corn stocks and returns to some shareholders suggest that expected returns in a new industry may well be dominated by forces not common in more mature industries one possibility is euphoria or craziness an explanation given more plausibility by the boom and bust in dot corn stock prices another explanation is that such stocks are similar to options and lottery tickets this possibility has occurred to many observers among them alan greenspan who observed that when you are dealing with stock the possibilities of which are either it s going to be valued at zero or some huge number you get a premium in that stock price which is exactly the same sort of price evaluation process that goes on in the lottery blumberg capital 1999 perhaps stocks in new industries have a distribution of returns that includes the possibility of large gains and small losses if so then investors may buy stocks for the same reasons that people are willing to pay for lottery tickets this explanation could be consistent with high valuations and even negative expected returns because investors are willing to pay on average to have a small probability of a large gain 1 indeed the limited history of dot corns suggests realization of substantial negative returns the geometric return to shareholders averaged across dot coms is 4 3 per month even so the history of dot coms probably is too short to deliver very reliable evidence on the expected return in new industries this average return to stockholders is based on the same firms as in the study by hand 2001 but there are only five firms in the center for research in security prices crsp data for these firms as recently as 1995 and the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 would suggest ending the data in 2006 we estimate expected returns in new industries by examining new industries with longer experiences than dot coms many analogies have been drawn between dot coms and earlier industries as far back as railroads and telegraphs for example in business week mandel 1999 hof and hamm 2002 the economist 2000 nairn 2002 and perez 2002 2 among these analogies is the importance of network effects network effects are important for dot coms and they are important for some of the industries examined in this paper industries examined in this paper include network industries if a network industry is defined as one in which a standard for the product or the availability of complementary inputs has high marginal value for the industry one such industry is the automobile industry which standardized on gasoline engines instead of electricity or steam another is the telegraph industry for which interconnection is as crucial as for the internet while it is less obvious interconnection is an important issue for railroads as well when differences in track width gauge are large enough connections across lines can require unloading and reloading railroad cars gauge was not standardized in the united states until the 1880s and even today gauge in spain and portugal is different than in the rest of europe in this paper we examine the returns in major new industries in the united states and summarize the distribution of returns over the period of the industry s development our paper is related to papers by fama and french 2001 and gompers and lerner 2003 fama and french 2001 examine the returns on newly listed firms in the crsp data set from 1926 to 2000 and find that these firms returns are similar to their benchmark returns

the micro macro disconnect of purchasing power parity abstract this paper reconciles the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates with the faster adjustment of international relative prices in microeconomic data error correction model estimates indicate that a different mix of shocks drives international price deviations at the microeconomic level and that dynamic adjustment works through arbitrage in the goods market rather than the foreign exchange market when half lives are estimated conditional on a common set of estimated macro shocks we find that micro relative prices exhibit every bit as much persistence as aggregate real exchange rates these results challenge theories of real exchange rate persistence based on sticky prices and heterogeneity across goods

what is challenging renewable energy entrepreneurs in developing countries this paper cumulates the findings from a review of the challenges faced by renewable energy entrepreneurs in developing countries to date research that could facilitate the success of renewable energy entrepreneurs in the world s developing regions has been fragmented across two main bodies of literature management specifically entrepreneurship and renewable energy by conducting a qualitative review of the extant literature i propose that the findings from both bodies of research may be distilled to six 6 key challenges inadequate access to institutional finance the price of renewable energy technologies rets the lack of skilled labour underdeveloped physical infrastructure and logistics power dominance of incumbents inadequate government or policy support through this research i not only advance a unified conceptualisation of the challenges faced by renewable energy entrepreneurs in developing countries but also highlight a number of the revealed opportunities for future research

mood swings and business cycles evidence from sign restrictions this paper provides new evidence that bouts of optimism and pessimism are an important source of u s business cycles using the identification schemes based on sign restrictions we document that identified optimism and pessimism shocks account for about 30 of u s business cycle fluctuations in hours and output in addition our empirical findings are consistent with the intensive and extensive margin adjustments in the u s labor market over business cycles providing further support to optimism shocks being an important source of u s business cycles the identified optimism shocks are at least partially rational as total factor productivity is found to rise 8 12 quarters after an initial bout of optimism while this later finding is consistent with some previous findings in the news shock literature we cannot rule out that such episodes reflect self fulfilling beliefs

technological change entry and stock market dynamics an analysis of transition in a monopolistic industry we consider the share price dynamics induced by changes in technological progress perhaps due to the introduction of a new technology or institutional reforms and the resultant entry of firms the focus is not so much in comparing the steady states before or after the change but rather on the transitional dynamics of the industry or economy as it adjusts the model is one with efficient markets and perfect foresight where fundamentals drive the stockmarket value should we expect technological progress to lead only to increases in the level of the stockmarket monotonic dynamics or should we expect nonmonotonic behavior of boom followed by partial bust a u shaped or overshooting dynamic is it possible to have share values falling even when the underlying technology is improving we model a stylized monopolistic industry or economy in a continuous time generalequilibrium setting with no uncertainty and perfect foresight we adopt a model of entry found in sanghamitra das and satya p das 1997 datta and dixon 2000 and marta aloi and dixon 2001 in which the cost of entry is increasing in the flow of entry due to some congestion effect or other externality the flow of entry is determined by an intertemporal arbitrage condition that equates the cost of entry with the present value of incumbency this gives rise to a dynamic zero profit condition the present value of incumbents in each instant is equal to the cost of entry we first consider the case of a step increase in the level of technology with no other underlying growth when an unanticipated technological improvement occurs it causes a stock market boom there is a jump in the share value the current profitability of incumbents and an increase in the flow of entry however eventually entry drives the profit level back to zero and shares decline back to the initial value the initial boom is followed by a bust we next consider the case of an economy with constant exponential technology growth what happens when the pace of technological change unexpectedly increases there is an upward jump in the stock market value of firms this can overshoot the new balancedgrowth path with the possibility that there will be a u shaped dynamic the initial boom is followed by a slump before tracking back to the higher growth rate if the initial jump overshoots the new balanced growth path there is a downward pull of share prices toward the new balanced growth path which may dominate this stock market behavior reflects the behavior of entry after an initial rush there is a temporary slowdown before eventually getting back on track a similar pattern can occur if the change is anticipated we believe that this might be some part of the explanation of the behavior of the stock market in the late 1990 s although real life is much more complicated see jeremy greenwood and boyan jovanovic 1999 the initial technological change causes a bonanza of profitable investment opportunities resulting in high profits for incumbents and many new firms being set up the increase in entry reduces profitability and this may cause the flow of entry to reduce if only in the short run finally however the long run growth opportunities begin to come through and the economy gets onto the new higher growth path

growth opportunities strategic savings and the dot com boom and bust data from the dot com boom bust episode suggest that growth opportunities played an important role in explaining firms financing strategy during this understudied episode the low leverage of this sector was mainly driven by high growth firms which increased their leverage following the crash despite suffering a much larger fall in their market value we present a parsimonious dynamic firm financing model where growth opportunities alone can generate the heterogeneous patterns in the financing and performance between high and low growth information technology firms prior to and following the market crash the calibrated model also sheds light on the role played by monetary policy during that episode jel g32 e22 e5

assessing monetary policy in the euro area a factor augmented var approach in order to overcome the omitted information problem of small scale vector autoregression var models this study combines the var methodology with dynamic factor analysis and assesses the effects of monetary policy shocks in the euro area in the period during which there is a single monetary policy using the factor augmented vector autoregressive favar approach of bernanke et al 2005 we summarize the information contained in a large set of macroeconomic time series with a small number of estimated factors and use them as regressors in recursive vars to evaluate the impact of the nonsystematic component of the european central bank s ecb s actions overall our results suggest that the inclusion of factors in the var allows us to obtain a more coherent picture of the effects of monetary policy innovations both by achieving responses easier to understand from the theoretical point of view and by increasing the precision of such responses moreover this framework allows us to compute impulse res

contracting productivity growth in this paper we analyze the interactions between growth and the contracting environment in the production sector allowing incompleteness in contracting implies that viable production relationships for firms and workers and therefore the profitability of industries depend on the rates of innovation and growth the speed at which new innovations arrive in turn depends on the profitability of production for the usual reasons examined in the endogenous growth literature we show that these interactions can have important implications which are consistent with observed phenomena in both the micro and macro environment in particular we demonstrate that a technological shock increasing productivity of research can through this interaction lead to a productivity slowdown and a shift in labor market contracts away from firms providing implicit guarantees of lifetime employment and towards shorter term contractor type arrangements we show the consistency of an increase in the proportion of the labor force under short term employment increased relative returns of workers in high productivity sectors and increased income inequality with a productivity slowdown of finite duration

preying for monopoly the case of southern bell telephone company 1894 1912 focusing on the southern bell telephone company we propose a modified version of the predation hypothesis to explain bell s natural monopoly over local telephone service southern bell effectively eliminated competition through a strategy of pricing below cost in response to entry which deprived competitors of the cash flow required for expansion even if it failed to induce exit investing in toll lines ahead of demand isolating independent companies in smaller towns and rural areas and forcing them to consolidate on favorable terms and influencing local regulatory policy in large cities to weaken rivals and ultimately to institutionalize the bell monopoly

comparing drivers barriers and opportunities of business models for renewable energies a review abstract this article systematically reviews the emerging field of research on business models for renewable energies differentiating between developing and industrialized countries the key findings on developing countries are as follows first there is a lack of quantitative data second opportunities are driven primarily by unfulfilled basic needs and micro finance whereas corruption and weak electricity grids are the main barriers and third business models should be replicable the key findings on industrialized countries are as follows first opportunities are driven primarily by climate change mitigation and energy efficiency improvements second stuck thought patterns and high costs of energy storage are important barriers and third cooperation is a key in future business models to handle increasing complexity this review reveals implications for researchers and policy makers promising avenues for future research are the analysis of intermodal business models and opportunities concerning energy self supply and renewable district heating policy makers are advised to design legal frameworks that account for the global nature of the renewable energy challenge and are simultaneously adapted to regional disparities

valuing the attributes of renewable energy investments increasing the proportion of power derived from renewable energy sources is becoming an increasingly important part of many countries s strategies to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions however renewable energy investments can often have external costs and benefits which need to be taken into account if socially optimal investments are to be made this paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of these external costs and benefits for the case of renewable technologies in scotland a country which has set particularly ambitious targets for expanding renewable energy the external effects we consider are those on landscape quality wildlife and air quality we also consider the welfare implications of different investment strategies for employment and electricity prices the methodology used to do this is the choice experiment technique renewable technologies considered include hydro on shore and off shore wind power and biomass welfare changes for different combinations of impacts associated with different investment strategies are estimated we also test for differences in preferences towards these impacts between urban and rural communities and between high and low income households

creative destruction and firm specific performance heterogeneity traditional u s industries with higher firm specific stock return and fundamentals performance heterogeneity use information technology it more intensively and post faster productivity growth in the late 20 th century we argue that this mechanically reflects a wave of schumpeter s 1912 creative destruction disrupting a wide swath of industries with successful it adopters unpredictably undermining established firms this validates endogenous growth theory models of creative destruction e g aghion and howitt 1992 and suggests intensified creative destruction as explaining findings associating greater firm specific performance variation with higher per capita gdps economy growth rates accounting standards financial system development and property right protection

installed base and compatibility innovation product preannouncements and predation a good is often more valuable to any user the more others use compatible goods the authors show that this effect may inhibit innovation if an installed base exists and transition to a new standard must be gradual early adopters bear a disproportionate share of transient incompatibility costs this can produce excess inertia the installed base however is stranded if the new standard is adopted this may create excess momentum these dynamic effects have strategic implications temporary price cutting can permanently prevent entry and product preannouncements can be critical in innovation these strategic actions have ambiguous welfare effects

speculative growth hints from the u s economy we propose a framework for understanding episodes of vigorous economic expansion and extreme asset valuations we interpret this phenomenon as a high valuation equilibrium with a low cost of capital based on optimism about future funding the key ingredient for such equilibrium is feedback from increased growth to a decline in the long run cost of capital this feedback arises when an expansion comes with technological progress in the capital sector when fiscal rules generate procyclical fiscal surpluses when the rest of the world has lower expansion potential or high saving needs and when financial constraints are relaxed by the expansion itself

taking stock a critical assessment of recent research on inventories empirical and theoretical aspects of inventory behavior became hot topics in the 1950s and early 1960s no one seemed to notice the tension that was developing between the emerging macroeconomic and microeconomic views of inventories macroeconomists routinely thought of inventories as a destabilizing factor yet the prevailing micro theory viewed inventories as a stabilizing factor it was a fascinating question that was barely explored instead somewhat inexplicably interest in inventories dried up as if inventories were of minor economic significance and little intrinsic interest by the early 1980s then economists once again knew something they had known in the 1950s that inventory investment is of first order importance in business cycles but they were also beginning to realize that the standard production smoothing buffer stock model of inventories was in deep trouble this paper focuses on developments since that realization

finance firm size and growth the authors examine whether financial development boosts the growth of small firms more than large firms and hence provides information on the mechanisms through which financial development fosters aggregate economic growth they define an industry s technological firm size as the firm size implied by industrial specific production technologies including capital intensities and scale economies using cross industry cross country data the results indicate that financial development exerts a disproportionately large effect on the growth of industries that are technologically more dependent on small firms this suggests that financial development accelerates economic growth by removing growth constraints on small firms and also implies that financial development has sectoral as well as aggregate growth ramifications

technological change and the stock market tobin s average q has usually been well above 1 but fell below 1 during 1974 1984 our model explains this pattern and reconciles it with unchanging aggregate investment the stock market value in the numerator of q reflects ownership of physical capital and knowledge but the denominator measures just physical capital therefore q is usually above 1 periodic arrivals of important new technologies such as the microprocessor in the 1970 s suddenly render old knowledge and capital obsolete causing the stock market to drop national accounts measures of physical capital miss this rapid obsolescence then q appears to drop below 1 jel e44 o3 o41

the new economy in europe 1992 2001 despite the fast catching up in ict diffusion experienced by most eu countries in the last few years information technologies have so far delivered little productivity gains in europe in the second half of the past decade growth contributions from ict capital rose in six eu countries only the uk denmark finland sweden ireland and greece quite unlike the united states this has not generally been associated to higher labour or total factor productivity growth rates the only exceptions being ireland and greece particularly worrisome the large countries in continental europe germany france italy and spain showed stagnating or mildly declining growth contributions from ict capital together with definite declines in tfp growth compared to the first half of the 1990s it looks like that the celebrated solow paradox on the lack of correlation between ict investment and productivity growth has fled the us to migrate to europe

narrative and var approaches to monetary policy common identification problems abstract romer and romer romer c d romer d h 1989 does monetary policy matter a new test in the spirit of friedman and schwartz in blanchard o j fischer s eds nber macroeconomics annual 1989 mit press cambridge ma pp 121 170 romer c d romer d h 1994 monetary policy matters journal of monetary economics 34 75 88 adopted a narrative approach to address the identification problems in time series models of monetary policy based on federal reserve documents the romers created a dummy variable equal to one in periods when the federal reserve contracted in response to perceived inflationary pressures this paper shows 1 the dummy variable is predictable from past macroeconomic variables reflecting the endogenous response of policy to the economy 2 unpredictable changes in the dummy do not generate dynamic responses that look like the effects of monetary policy the identification problems that plague time series models also afflict the narrative approach

financing development the role of information costs to address how technological progress in nancial intermediation aects the economy a costly state veri cation framework is embedded into the standard growth model the framework has two novel ingredients first rms dier in the risk return combinations that they oer second the e cacy of monitoring depends upon the amount of resources invested in the activity a nancial theory of rm size results undeserving rms are over nanced deserving ones under funded technological advance in intermediation leads to more capital accumulation and a redirection of funds away from unproductive rms toward productive ones quantitative analysis suggests that nance is important for growth

identifying the role of risk shocks in the business cycle using stock price data i introduction the finance literature on the forecastibility of stock returns has concluded that stock market movements are by and large not because of changes in the expected future cash flow of firms but are primarily because of changes in the risk premium that is how the expected cash flows are discounted by stock market participants cochrane 2011 1 these changes in risk premia also have important implications for real variables in the economy especially for consumption and investment an increase in the risk premium prompts households to reduce current consumption as they start to discount expected future income more heavily more importantly changes in the required return on equity alter the cost of capital of corporations when they finance new investment for firms that rely on external debt to finance marginal investment a lower stock price translates into lower net worth and therefore a higher cost of borrowing bernanke gertler and gilchrist 1999 similarly firms that rely on new equity issues are able to raise less funds from each new share when their stock price is lower even for firms that finance investment exclusively through internal funds i e retained earnings plus depreciation allowance the required return on existing shares reveals the opportunity cost of internally financed investment tobin 1969 tobin and brainard 1977 this is because at least in principle these funds can be returned to existing shareholders as dividends and new funds can then be raised from the markets through new equity shares for which investors would demand a risk premium figure 1 omitted in the aggregate u s corporations are predominantly financed through equity the dotted line in figure 1 plots the credit market liabilities of u s non financial corporations as a percent of the sum of equity and credit market liabilities in their balance sheets 2 by this measure debt financing accounts for about a third of total financing averaged over the whole sample and equity financing accounts for about two thirds the solid line in figure 1 provides an alternative measure which takes into account all financial liabilities including items such as trade payables but nets out financial assets to obtain a measure of net debt mcgrattan and prescott 2005 now debt financing accounts for only 15 of total financing in the post war period and its importance has declined in the last two decades note that both of these series are stock measures as opposed to flow measures that is they refer to financing of all past investments and do not necessarily reflect how corporations are financing investment at the margin these measures can also be biased against debt financing because most debt items are recorded on a book value basis in the flow of funds but equity is recorded on a market value basis to overcome these caveats i consider the flow components of sources of funds i e internal funds net new equity and net new debt as a share of corporate tangible investment in figure 2 several patterns emerge first the ratio of internal funds to gross capital expenditures has been close to 1 throughout the post war period in other words at least in the aggregate u s corporate investment has been by and large financed internally second new equity issuance has not been an important source of financing in fact net new stock issues have been mostly negative in the latter part of the sample this mainly reflects the preference of corporations to distribute resources to shareholders through stock buybacks rather than ordinary dividend payments because of the preferential tax treatment of long term capital gains third net new debt has contributed to about a third of aggregate financing assuming that the discrepancy in the flow account is distributed proportionally to each financing component as internal funds and net new stock issues are fairly reliable data series we can reasonably lump the rather large discrepancy item in the ffa data with net debt

five facts about prices a reevaluation of menu cost models are price decreases 3 the frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not 4 the frequency of price change is highly seasonal it is highest in the first quarter and then declines 5 we find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products we show that the first second and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu cost model whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not

renewable energy supply chain in ostrobothnia region and vaasa city innovative framework energy and environmental technology is one of the most important debates among citizens and the government of finland as development of renewable energy utilization depends on geographical situation the policy and strategic decisions of renewable promotion should focus more on regionals studies ostrobothnia and its capital vaasa are among the best regions with high potentials of new renewable energy resources including wind power smart grids biofuels and geothermal energy in finland however high penetration of renewable energies creates challenges from supply chain viewpoint including environmental grid operators and maintain reliable service this article discusses the development and performance of renewables supply chain in ostrobothnia region and vaasa city the presented framework provides managerial insights to policy makers of governments and municipalities as well as researchers and other stockholders to consider different aspects of diffusion of renewable energy technologies in the regional levels the contributions are also beneficial for further studies related to renewable energy development sources carriers and services

the information technology revolution and the stock market evidence since 1968 the ratio of stock market capitalization to gdp has varied by a factor of 5 in 1972 the ratio stood at above unity but by 1974 it had fallen to 0 45 where it stayed for the next decade it then began a steady climb and today it stands above 2 we argue that the it revolution was behind this and moreover that the capitalization gdp ratio is likely to decline and then rise after any major technological shift the three assumptions that deliver the result are

testing the rationality of price forecasts new evidence from panel data this paper tests the rationality of individual price forecasts in a panel of professional forecasters here unlike in most previous studies rationality is not rejected the results here differ because 1 using individual forecasts avoids aggregation bias 2 comparison of forecasts to initial data avoids bias due to data revision 3 the professional forecasters have economic incentives to state their expectations accurately and 4 a new covariance matrix estimator consistent when forecast errors are correlated across individuals is used copyright 1990 by american economic association

women wealth and mobility using estate tax returns data we observe that the share of women among the very wealthy in the united states peaked in the late 1960s at nearly one half and then declined to one third we argue that this pattern reflects changes in the importance of dynastic wealth with the share of women proxying for inher ited wealth if so wealth mobility decreased until the 1970s and rose thereafter such an interpretation is consistent with technological change driving long term trends in mobility and inequality as well as the recent divergence between top wealth and top income shares documented elsewhere jel d31 j16 j62 033 the extent of and changes in intergenerational mobility of wealth are central to understanding dynamics of wealth inequality but are hard to measure in this paper we argue that the share of women among the wealthiest americans can be used as a proxy for the importance of inherited rela tive to self made wealth this approach assumes that women tend to inherit rather than make great fortunes if so a higher share of women among the wealthy would reflect a rise in inherited wealth at the top and thus lower wealth mobility conversely higher wealth mobility where self made wealth replaces inherited wealth would result in more men at the top of the wealth distribution judged by this proxy and corroborated by various data sources wealth mobility decreased in the period 1925 1969 and increased thereafter such a pattern is consistent with an important role for technological change in shaping the wealth distribution and can provide an explanation for why wealth concentra tion has remained stable despite increasing income concentration in the last three decades over the past century the share of women among the very wealthy followed an inverse u pattern peaking in the late 1960s according to estate tax returns in 1925 one quarter of the wealthiest 0 01 percent were women this fraction rose rapidly through world war ii wwii and then more slowly to peak in 1969 when women neared parity with men since then the decline has been marked by 2000 women s share had fallen to one third its prewar level while the rise was evident among all wealth groups in the top 1 percent of the wealth distribution the decline was confined to the very top figure ia graphs the share of women for four different groups in the top 1 percent among decedents by year figure ib does the same for the living population with the help of estate multipliers a method that treats death as a random sampling device and uses mortality rates by age and gender to infer the distribution of wealth among the living as described in the data appendix while the rise in the share of women among the wealthy until the 1960s could reflect improve ments in women s economic status labor market gains work against the recent decline for instance since the 1970s the share of women among top earners top 0 1 percent has risen by

loan supply shocks during the financial crisis evidence for the euro area this paper employs a panel vector autoregressive model for the member countries of the euro area to explore the role of banks during the slump of the real economy that followed the financial crisis in particular we seek to quantify the macroeconomic effects of adverse loan supply shocks which are identified using sign restrictions we find that loan supply shocks significantly contributed to the evolution of the loan volume and real gdp growth in all member countries during the financial crisis however concerning both the timing and the magnitude of the shocks our results also indicate that the euro area was characterized by a considerable degree of cross country heterogeneity

the life cycle of a competitive industry firm numbers first rise then later fall as an industry evolves this nonmonotonicity is explained using a competitive model in which innovation opportunities fuel entry and relative failure to innovate prompts exit equilibrium time paths for price and quantity also share features of the data the model is estimated using data from the u s automobile tire industry a particularly dramatic example of the nonmonotonicity in firm numbers

volatility and slow technology diffusion abstract i study the effects of uncertainty on technology adoption and thereby on volatility and growth i present an analytically tractable model in which i uncertainty about the returns to adoption delays technology diffusion and ii the mean and volatility of output growth are jointly determined in equilibrium i then test the key predictions of the model by studying the introduction of three major information and communication technologies icts computers internet and cell phones i find that countries with more volatile growth rates of real gdp per capita have higher time adoption lags and lower average growth as predicted by the model

the role of investment efficiency in the industry life cycle this article studies a dynamic model of an industry life cycle based on increasing returns in the cost of growth whereby large firms can grow more easily when there are strong increasing returns in the adjustment cost function the model exhibits multiple rest points and firms do not necessarily all end up in the same state the model generates typical life cycle stages including a shakeout the likelihood of survival is positively correlated with the entering size an implication that fits empirical findings that exiting firms are small not only just prior to exit but also at the time of entry the model also explains newer findings on the evolution of moments an increase in the skewness and the spread of firm size distribution before the shakeout and a decline in these with the start of the shakeout copyright 2010 the author 2009 published by oxford university press on behalf of associazione icc all rights reserved oxford university press

implications of rational inattention abstract a constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal extraction problem or an adjustment cost in standard control problems the resulting theory looks enough like familiar dynamic rational expectations theories to suggest that it might be useful and practical while the implications for policy are different enough to be interesting

capital regulation and the macroeconomy empirical evidence and macroprudential policy abstract we present new evidence on the macroeconomic effects of changes in microprudential bank capital requirements using confidential regulatory data from the basel i and ii regimes in the united kingdom our central result is that an increase in capital requirements lowered lending to firms and households reduced aggregate expenditure and raised credit spreads a financial accelerator effect is found to have amplified the macroeconomic responses to shifts in bank credit supply results from a counterfactual experiment that links capital requirements to house prices and mortgage spreads indicate that tighter macroprudential policy would have had a moderating effect on house price and mortgage lending growth in the early 2000s with easier monetary policy acting to offset its contractionary effects on output

how does the stock market respond to changes in bank lending standards i investigate the industry level responses of u s stock returns to unanticipated changes in bank lending standards exploiting cross industry variation in the levels of dependence on external finance i document that on average cumulative stock returns fall significantly by 1 36 percentage points two years after an unexpected one standard deviation tightening in lending standards moreover moving from an industry at the 10th percentile of financial dependence to one at the 90th percentile adds between 1 24 and 2 19 additional percentage points to this effect

optimal monetary policy responses to relative price changes abstract an optimizing model with a flexible price sector and a sticky price sector is presented to analyze the effects of relative price changes on inflation fluctuations the relative price of the flexible price good represents a shift parameter of the new keynesian phillips curve the optimal monetary policy is to target sticky price inflation rather than a broad inflation measure although stabilizing the relative price around its efficient value is one of the appropriate goals of the central bank stabilizing sticky price inflation is sufficient for achieving this goal an optimal monetary policy for a small open economy is also discussed

did the us consumer overreact a test of rational expectations abstract using data for the us economy from 1995 to 2008 i estimate a business cycle model in which consumers form expectations rationally and an alternative model that explicitly allows for deviations from rational expectations in the form of overreaction to noisy signals the second model does not have any advantage in explaining the movements in consumption and productivity in this period therefore i cannot reject the hypothesis that consumers behaved rationally the rather exuberant movements of this episode are rationalized by a story in which permanent income consumers find it hard to distinguish between permanent movements in productivity and temporary ones consumers who update their beliefs about trends in productivity on the basis of fairly noisy signals adjust their behavior very slowly after the 1995 2000 productivity boom consumers learnt very slowly about a subsequent decline in productivity growth which led to financial and trade imbalances that ended in a correction starting around 2007 the whole boom bust cycle was long taking about 14 years to complete

business models for model businesses lessons from renewable energy entrepreneurs in developing countries against the background of mounting research suggesting entrepreneurship as a means of increasing the uptake of renewable energy technologies rets in developing countries this paper presents the findings of an exploratory investigation into the business models used by renewable energy entrepreneurs in such countries forty three entrepreneurs were interviewed in 28 developing countries and secondary information about country and regional conditions was analysed we chose the business model canvas as an analytical tool and the findings shed new light on established renewable energy business types three different types of businesses were identified consultants distributors and integrators yet there is also some overlap between these types these business types appeared to parallel the life cycle progression of the business but this requires further research a key component of the study was to assess whether the types of businesses were related to country level conditions to assess the impact of regional differences these comparisons revealed consistencies between country level characteristics and the entrepreneurs choice of business model conclusions suggest that different regions may support certain business models more than others due to differing levels of government interest in renewables governance and policy support and the relative ease of doing business

stabilizing non fundamental asset price movements under discretion and limited information abstract inflation output and interest rate stabilization are all potential central bank objectives we explore whether monetary policy should respond to asset price fluctuations when they are driven by irrational expectational shocks to the future returns to capital in our model an optimistic shock to future returns generates both an increase in equity prices and physical investment the increased investment is inefficient and thus a central bank optimally responds to this expectations shocks this induces a trade off between stabilizing nominal prices and non fundamental asset price movements we compare the optimal policy under different assumptions full versus limited information and commitment versus discretion if the central bank has limited information about whether an asset price movement has a fundamental or non fundamental origin then the central bank responds less aggressively to the non fundamental exuberance shocks than under full information without commitment a central bank responds more aggressively to non fundamental exuberance shocks

strategic analysis of diffusion of renewable energy in the nordic countries abstract today there are concerns related to security of energy supply growing energy demands limitations of fossil fuels and threats of disruptive climate changes to overcome the challenges diversification and utilization of renewable energy resources are defined as the main strategies however successful diffusion of renewable energy requires consideration to many factors including social economic and technical ones nordic countries are among the leading countries on successful development of renewable energy and energy efficiency this research in the frame of a strategic conceptual analysis studies the policies and achievements of the nordic region in their development of renewable energy the framework consists of four layers including dimensions characters objectives and key schemes

assessing the impact of renewable energy deployment on local sustainability towards a theoretical framework renewable energy sources res have a large potential to contribute to the sustainable development sd of specific territories by providing them with a wide variety of socioeconomic and environmental benefits however the existing literature has put much emphasis on the environmental benefits including the reduction of global and local pollutants while socioeconomic impacts have not received a comparable attention these include diversification of energy supply enhanced regional and rural development opportunities creation of a domestic industry and employment opportunities with the exception of the diversification and security of energy supply these benefits have usually been mentioned but their analysis has been too general i e mostly at the national level and a focus on the regional and even more so the local level has been lacking at most studies provide scattered evidence of some of those regional and local benefits but without an integrated conceptual framework to analyse them this paper tries to make a contribution in this regard by developing an integrated theoretical framework which allows a comprehensive analysis of the impact of renewable energy on local sustainability and which can be empirically applied to identify these benefits in different territories

costly external finance corporate investment and the subprime mortgage credit crisis abstract we study the effect of the recent financial crisis on corporate investment the crisis represents an unexplored negative shock to the supply of external finance for non financial firms corporate investment declines significantly following the onset of the crisis controlling for firm fixed effects and time varying measures of investment opportunities consistent with a causal effect of a supply shock the decline is greatest for firms that have low cash reserves or high net short term debt are financially constrained or operate in industries dependent on external finance to address endogeneity concerns we measure firms financial positions as much as four years prior to the crisis and confirm that similar results do not follow placebo crises in the summers of 2003 2006 nor do similar results follow the negative demand shock caused by september 11 2001 the effects weaken considerably beginning in the third quarter of 2008 when the demand side effects of the crisis became apparent additional analysis suggests an important precautionary savings motive for seemingly excess cash that is generally overlooked in the literature

analysis of the effectiveness of national renewable energy policies a case of photovoltaic policies abstract although fossil fuels are the main sources of power generation they are losing their advantages because of their limitations and environmental and economic concerns as an alternative the development of renewable energy technologies is one of the important strategies therefore governments have been encouraging the deployment of renewable energy resources however there are gaps between achievements and targets as most of the national renewable energy development policies are formulated in the entire country equally the outputs and achievements are different depending on the geographical characteristics social and economic capabilities of the regions the purpose of the present study is the analysis and the evaluation of the effectiveness of the equal national renewable energy policy in the different regions of a country this research focuses on the idea that whether the codification of energy policies according to the local circumstances of each region can result in a greater efficiency of such policies an innovative framework is presented to categorize the government policies based on the geographical technical and socio economic indicators to examine the presented framework it is implemented as a case study

innovation and idiosyncratic risk an industry and firm level analysis recent studies find that idiosyncratic risk ir the degree to which firm specific returns are more volatile than aggregate market returns has increased since the 1960s and attribute this to economy wide factors such as the role of the it revolution yet no innovation data is used in these studies to gain further insights into the relationship between technology and ir our aricle studies whether firms and industries that are more r d intensive are in fact characterized by higher ir due to how innovation affects the uncertainty of expected future profits while the industry level results prove inconclusive a clear relationship is found between firm level r d intensity and firm level volatility of returns

investment options and the business cycle abstract this paper extends r mehra e c prescott recursive competitive equilibrium the case of homogeneous households econometrica 48 1980 1365 1380 to a production economy with two capital goods it is an rbc model in which each unit of investment requires a new idea an option when options are scarce new capital is harder to put in place and the value of old capital rises thus the stock market and tobin s q are negative indexes of intangibles during a boom q rises gradually as options are used up because investment represents an exercise of options it has an intertemporal substitution tradeoff that is absent from the adjustment cost model equilibrium may be efficient even without markets for knowledge the stock market may suffice

review of barriers to the dissemination of decentralized renewable energy systems abstract this paper reviews the available literature dealing with the barriers to the dissemination of decentralized renewable energy systems decentralized renewable energy systems may face a range of technical economic institutional socio cultural and environmental barrier to their dissemination in the paper barriers impeding the dissemination of decentralized renewable energy systems have been identified and assessed in addition appropriate remedial measures and corresponding responsibility centers as reported in the literature have also been discussed inappropriateness of technology unavailability of skilled manpower for maintenance unavailability of spare parts high cost lack of access to credit poor purchasing power and other spending priorities unfair energy pricing lack of information or awareness and lack of adequate training on operation and maintenance of decentralized renewable energy systems are found to be the most critical barriers long term conducive policies appropriate regulatory framework financial incentives capital subsidies and soft loans to users technology and skill development internalization of externalities in the cost of energy withdrawal of subsidies presently being given to fossil fuels development of specialized institutions cooperation with international agencies participation of local community and awareness generation have been recommended for increased dissemination of decentralized renewable energy systems

consumer credit liquidity and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy i introduction despite calls for its obsolescence the lending channel of the monetary transmission mechanism continues to generate interest among monetary economists recently den haan sumner and yamashiro 2007 find the loan supply effect is evident for consumer lending and real estate loans in data up to 2004 the loan supply effect or lending channel arises in the transmission mechanism if tight monetary policy forces banks to contract the supply of loans independent of a direct interest rate effect i e the liquidity effect and such a contraction has real effects for bank dependent borrowers although some such as perez 1998 and ashcraft 2006 have emphasized the lending channel s lack of relevance for the monetary transmission mechanism den haan sumner and yamashiro s 2007 results support a number of recent papers that offer detailed and disaggregated reasons why the channel is alive and well for certain lenders and borrowers for recent examples see nilsen 2004 and peek rosengren and tootell 2003 den haan sumner and yamashiro s 2007 findings suggest that the role of the consumer in the lending channel may be deserving of more attention 1 this paper asks whether consumer lending is or has become a significant component of the lending channel even if it was not thought crucial in lending channel studies published in the 1990s specifically i take a closer look at the statistical and possible economic significance of the consumer loan supply effect with disaggregated monthly consumer credit data from both commercial bank and nonbank sources and for the nonrevolving and revolving components of consumer credit from each source with this array of data i test the assumptions of the channel by considering whether households are forced to use more expensive nonbank credit as bank credit declines or that a household might switch into more costly revolving credit as installment loans decline to examine the consumer lending channel i estimate impulse response functions for the disaggregated consumer loan components mentioned above with the monthly data spanning 1968 2006 the sources of which are discussed later this strategy follows the examples of numerous lending channel studies that analyze the responses of disaggregated data to a monetary policy shock to discern evidence of the loan supply effect den haan sumner and yamashiro 2007 e g compare the behavior of commercial and industrial loans with real estate and consumer loans i follow the methods of previous studies in order to compare as closely as possible the results of this paper with the rich body of lending channel literature for robustness this paper estimates the impulse response functions from both a typical vector autoregression var model and using jorda s 2005 linear projection technique the latter method provides impulse response functions less prone to misspecification than in a var along with conditional standard errors to aid in the statistical inference of the responses see also jorda 2009 and further discussion in section iii finally for additional robustness i employ den haan sumner and yamashiro s 2007 identification strategy for isolating the loan supply effect in preview of the results ultimately the consumer credit data analyzed in this paper suggest that both the statistical and by extension the economic significance of the consumer loan supply effect is weak in the least the effect has weakened over time although monthly consumer credit data from commercial banks from 1968 through 2006 substantiate previous research on consumer lending matching the decline documented by gertler and gilchrist 1993 and den haan sumner and yamashiro 2007 after 1984 the responses of both nonrevolving and revolving consumer bank credit are not consistent with the lending channel instead both series increase similar to the result found by den haan sumner and yamashiro 2007 for commercial lending in fact total nonrevolving and revolving consumer credit increase for 2 yr after the monetary shock

banks funding stress lending supply and consumption expenditure we employ a unique identification strategy linking survey data on household consumption expenditure to bank level data to estimate the effects of bank funding stress on consumer credit and consumption expenditures we show that households whose banks were more exposed to funding shocks report lower levels of nonmortgage liabilities this however only translates into lower levels of consumption for low income households hence adverse credit supply shocks are associated with significant heterogeneous effects

technological revolutions and the three great slumps a medium run analysis abstract the great recession the great depression and the japanese slump of the 1990s were all preceded by periods of major technological innovation which happened about 10 years before the start of the decline in economic activity we estimate a model with noisy news we find that beliefs about long run income adjust to permanent shifts in productivity with an important delay the estimation tells a common and simple story for the observed dynamics of productivity and consumption on a 20 to 25 year window our analysis highlights the advantages of a look at this data from the point of view of the medium run

when does predation dominate collusion i study repeated competition among oligopolists the only novelty is that firms may go bankrupt and permanently exit the probability that a firm survives a price war depends on its financial strength which varies stochastically over time under some conditions including no entry an anti folk theorem holds when firms are patient so that strength levels change relatively quickly every nash equilibrium involves an immediate price war that lasts until at most one firm remains surprisingly the possibility of entry may facilitate collusion as may impatience the model can explain some observed patterns of collusion and predation

the persistence of inflation in the united states abstract has the persistence of inflation in the united states changed since 1965 we estimate the persistence of inflation over time using different measures and estimation procedures and we produce confidence intervals for our estimates as well as formal tests of unchanged persistence we find that inflation persistence has been high and approximately unchanged in the u s over our sample period we reconcile our results with other studies that reached different conclusions

do banking shocks affect borrowing firm performance an analysis of the japanese experience from 1990 to 1993 the typical firm on the tokyo stock exchange lost more than half of its value and banks experienced severe adverse shocks we show that firms whose debt had a higher fraction of bank loans in 1989 performed worse from 1990 to 1993 and also invested less than other firms did this effect holds when we control for variables that affect firm performance we show further that exogenous shocks to banks during the negotiations leading to the basle accord affected bank borrowers significantly copyright 2000 by university of chicago press

technology adoption in the presence of network externalities we analyze technology adoption in industries where network externalities are significant the pattern of adoption depends on whether technologies are sponsored a sponsor is an entity that has property rights to the technology and hence is willing to make investments to promote it key findings include the following 1 compatibility tends to be undersupplied by the market but excessive standardization can occur 2 in the absence of sponsors the technology superior today has a strategic advantage and is likely to dominate the market 3 when one of two rival technologies is sponsored that technology has a strategic advantage and may be adopted even if it is inferior 4 when two competing technologies both are sponsored the technology that will be superior tomorrow has a strategic advantage

predation and its rate of return the sugar industry 1887 1914 we show that the price wars following two major entry episodes were predatory our proof is twofold by direct comparison of price to marginal cost and by construction of a lower bound to predicted competitive price cost margins that we show to exceed observed margins predation occurred only when its relative cost to the dominant firm the american sugar refining company asrc was small its most clear effect was to lower the acquisition price of entrants and small incumbents it may also have deterred future capacity additions and raised asrc s share of industry profits predation operated by strengthening asrc s reputation as a willing predator

the real effects of financial sector interventions during crises we assess the importance of supply side credit market frictions by studying the impact of bank recapitalization on firm growth in 50 countries during the recent crisis our identification strategy exploits the crisis as a shock to credit supply and combines an exogenous measure of firms dependence on external financing with policy interventions aimed at restoring bank capital we find that the growth of financially dependent firms is disproportionately positively affected by bank recapitalization this effect is quantitatively important and robust to controlling for other policies these results provide new evidence of the influence of credit market frictions on economic activity

integrating sticky prices and sticky information abstract understanding the relationship between nominal and real variables most notably inflation and cyclical output is one of the fundamental questions of economics toward this understanding we develop a model that integrates sticky prices and sticky information a dual stickiness model we find that both rigidities are present in u s data we also show that the dual stickiness model s closest competitor is the hybrid new keynesian model for both models current inflation depends in part on last period s inflation the former model achieves this dependence endogenously through the interaction of the two rigidities rather than through backward looking behavior u s data support the dual stickiness model over the hybrid model because lagged expectations terms appear in the former s inflation euler equation finally we show that it is quantitatively important to distinguish between the two by simulating a dynamic equilibrium model under each of the two inflation equations

varying heterogeneity among u s firms facts and implications abstract u s firms stock return volatility rose fivefold from 1971 through 2000 and then reverted to near 1971 levels by 2006 this was driven mainly by a rise and fall in the firm specific rather than systematic component of volatility firm level total factor productivity growth volatility exhibited a similar pattern we hypothesize that firm heterogeneity reflected in firm specific volatility rises as a new general purpose technology gpt propagates across the economy and then ebbs once the gpt is widespread measuring gpt adoption by information technology capital intensity we find robust cross industry empirical evidence supporting the hypothesis

macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes this article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors the predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis an approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts the method is used to construct 6 12 and 24 monthahead forecasts for eight monthly u s macroeconomic time series using 215 predictors in simulated real time from 1970 through 1998 during this sample period these new forecasts outperformed univariate autoregressions small vector autoregressions and leading indicator models

the information technology revolution and the stock market technological progress comes in waves the british industrial revolution 1760 1850 ushered in cort s puddling and rolling process for making iron crompton s mule for spinning cotton and the watt steam engine the second industrial revolution 1890 1930 witnessed the rise of electricity the internal combustion engine and the chemical industry the birth of information technology it may herald the start of a third industrial revolution a new technology or product is often developed by the single entrepreneur who initially finds it hard to get funds develop the product and find customers but if the product is good customers eventually line up and investors flock in other firms then move in to make the product and may drive the innovator out or acquire him whether he reaches the initial public offering ipo stage or is acquired by a listed firm though it takes time for the innovator to add value to the stock market indeed the innovation may at first reduce the market s value because some firms usually large or old will cling to old technologies that have lost their momentum figure 1 plots the market value of u s equity relative to gdp this paper argues that a the market declined in the late 1960 s because it felt that the old technologies either had lost their momentum or would give way to it and that b it innovators boosted the stock market s value only in the 1980 s if the stock market provides a forecast of future events then the recent dramatic upswing represents a rosy estimate about growth in future profits for the economy this translates into a forecast of higher output and productivity growth holding other things equal such as capital s share