workfare wellbeing and consumption evidence from a field experiment with kenya s urban poor abstract restrictions like work requirements and constraints on voucher transfers are often used in social welfare systems but little empirical evidence exists on their impact on wellbeing we conducted a 10 day randomized experiment with 432 individuals living below the poverty line in the kawangware settlement of nairobi kenya testing two elements of social welfare design workfare versus welfare and restricted versus unrestricted vouchers participants were randomly assigned to a work condition involving daily work for unrestricted vouchers or one of two wait conditions involving daily waiting for vouchers that were either unrestricted or partially restricted to staple foods we find that working improved psychological wellbeing relative to waiting suggesting that the means of implementing welfare programs may have important effects on individuals beyond the impact of monetary benefit alone furthermore although the restrictions were inframarginal partially restricted vouchers crowded in spending on staple foods suggesting the existence of a flypaper effect in spending from restricted vouchers

welfare reform and unemployment in new zealand in the early 1990s new zealand cut benefits and tightened eligibility criteria under its main social welfare programmes these benefit changes varied substantially across both time and demographic groups synthetic panel data are used econometrically to isolate the effects of these reforms on several dimensions of unemployment behaviour a simple theoretical model suggests that cutting benefits could either increase or decrease excess labour supply our results indicate that these reforms increased the official unemployment rate by nearly one quarter of a percentage point but significantly reduced broader measures of economic inactivity or the under utilization of labour in the new zealand economy

what makes workers happy this article answers the question what makes workers happy it does so by combining insights from micro economics sociology and psychology basis is the standard utility function of a worker that includes income and hours of work and is elaborated with job characteristics in this way it is possible to answer whether part time workers are happier than full time workers the utility function is estimated on basis of the european social survey 2004 which contains all necessary information the results show that workers optimize income and hours of work as predicted by micro economics but also that part time workers are happier than full time workers challenging work with a high level of autonomy makes the workers happy work pressure makes workers unhappy higher educated workers are unhappier than lower educated workers we find a negative effect of education but this is compensated by the type of jobs these higher educated hold

influence versus utility in the evaluation of voting rules a new look at the penrose formula in this paper we present a contribution to the analysis of the relationship between influence power measurement and utility measurement the two most popular social objective criteria used when evaluating voting mechanisms for one particular probabilistic model describing the preferences of the electorate the so called impartial culture ic model used by banzhaf the penrose formula shows that the two objectives coincide the ic probabilistic model assumes that voter preferences are independent and neutral in this article we prove a general version of the penrose formula allowing for preference correlations and biases in the electorate we use that formula to illustrate for a spectrum of well known probabilistic models how the divergence between the two social objectives impacts the ranking and performances of the voting mechanisms

household labor supply and welfare participation in sweden using a sample of swedish households we estimate a household labor supply model assuming that preferences for consumption and leisure can be described by a direct translog utility function the labor supply and welfare participation decisions are treated as a discrete choice problem and we assume that these choices follow a simple conditional logit rule in addition we allow unobserved individual specific effects to be correlated across alternatives we assume that these unobserved effects are drawn from a discrete distribution and the correlation across alternatives is modeled using factor loading techniques classification error in hours is allowed for by using a multiplicative measurement error specification the estimates from the structural model yield inelastic labor supply among husbands and positive wage elasticity for wives further the cross elasticities are close to zero

social networks and technology adoption in northern mozambique despite their potentially strong impact on poverty agricultural innovations are often adopted slowly using a unique household dataset on sunflower adoption in mozambique we analyse whether and how individual adoption decisions depend upon the choices of others in the same social networks since farmers anticipate that they will share information with others we expect farmers to be more likely to adopt when they know many other adopters dynamic considerations however suggest that farmers who know many adopters might strategically delay adoption to free ride on the information gathered by others we present empirical evidence that shows that the relationship between the probability of adoption and the number of known adopters is shaped as an inverse u in line with information sharing the network effect is stronger for farmers who report discussing agriculture with others the data contains information which is needed to ameliorate the identification issues that commonly arise in this context in particular social networks are precisely identified and in addition we can control for village heterogeneity and endogenous group formation

means testing versus universal provision in poverty alleviation programs this paper contrasts the use of means tested and universal schemes in the alleviation of poverty using a class of poverty measures the authors illustrate the trade off from the fact that means testing is costly to both the government and the claimant while universal provision entails a leakage to the nonpoor the paper provides numerical as well as analytical results copyright 1990 by the london school of economics and political science

why do low income households not use food stamps evidence from an experiment this paper explores why many low income households do not participate in the food stamp program by analyzing detailed income and asset data from a sample of low income households we find that many households that appear to be eligible for food stamps in fact are not eligible by conducting an experiment designed to investigate the role of information on participation in the food stamp program we observe that ignorance about the program contributes to nonparticipation however there is evidence that knowledge about the program is endogenous households generally avail themselves of information about the program when the anticipated benefits of doing so are large

income working hours and happiness abstract in empirical analyses the effect of income on happiness tends to be underestimated by ignoring the fact that income has to be earned using the german socio economic panel our analysis confirms this tendency for men the underestimation amounts to 25

separating the reporting effects from the injury rate effects of workers compensation insurance a hedonic simulation this paper presents a numerical simulation based on data from the early 1970s to investigate the economic links between labor market outcomes and the workers compensation insurance system the results suggest that in most cases any of three changes in the system more generous benefits more accurate categorization of insurance claims or more complete experience rating of premiums will slightly reduce the actual number of work related injuries but will dramatically increase the number of insurance claims filed the authors conclude that changes in self reported injuries can produce significant misimpressions of the safety incentives created by the workers compensation insurance system

variable earnings and nonlinear taxation tax and transfer programs transform before tax income into after tax income income is variable and the tax and transfer system is nonlinear i e marginal tax rates vary we show that as a consequence the tax and transfer system punishes and rewards income variability we calculate the effect of the nonlinearity for several components of the u s tax and transfer system focusing on the low income population we find that the system rewards variability for some individuals and penalizes it for others we conclude that the tax and transfer system punishes and rewards variability in a manner that is both substantial and capricious

modelling the take up of state support abstract we discuss the modelling of the take up of state support by going beyond the standard analysis and recognising that both the researcher and the welfare agency make errors is assessing entitlement we apply the discussion to an examination of the take up of supplementary benefits in britain by explicitly modelling the costs to taking up state support we can illustrate how these costs can dampen the welfare impact of state support and mitigate or aggravate welfare agency errors in assessing entitlement

social norms in social insurance we analyze how insurance arrangements labor supply moral hazard and outright cheating are affected by social norms one question is under what conditions norms may improve social welfare anothe

factors determining participation of the elderly in supplemental security the same low participation rates which plague many welfare programs have been observed among the elderly eligible for supplemental security income ssi a number of hypotheses have been offered to explain the low enrollment but none has attracted universal acceptance in this paper i use the survey of income and program participation sipp to examine the participation of the elderly in ssi because of the high quality of the data i am able to determine eligibility more accurately than in most previous studies in this sample only 56 percent of those whom i determine to be eligible for ssi are presently receiving benefits i model the decision to participate as a probit equation but modify the likelihood function to account for measurement error in the expected benefit the results indicate that participation is primarily determined by the financial situation of the eligible individuals although all those eligible for ssi are poor those with little in the way of other resources are significantly more likely to participate this finding differs from widespread beliefs that eligible individuals are discouraged by the difficulty of the application process or that many are uninformed about the program

food stamps and food insecurity what can be learned in the presence of nonclassical measurement error policymakers have been puzzled to observe that food stamp households appear more likely to be food insecure than observationally similar eligible nonparticipating households we reexamine this issue allowing for nonclassical reporting errors in food stamp participation and food insecurity extending the literature on partially identified parameters we introduce a nonparametric framework that makes transparent what can be known about conditional probabilities when a binary outcome and conditioning variable are both subject to nonclassical measurement error we find that the food insecurity paradox hinges on assumptions about the data that are not supported by the previous food stamp participation literature

information and participation in social programs participation in social programs such as clubs and other social organizations results from a process in which an agent learns about the requirements benefits and likelihood of acceptance related to a program applies to be a participant and finally is accepted or rejected we propose a model of this participation process and provide an application of the model using data from a social program in mexico our empirical analysis illustrates that decision at each stage of the process are responsive to expectations about the decisions and outcomes at the subsequent stages and that knowledge about the program can have a significant impact on participation outcomes

welfare reform when recipients are forward looking in 1996 the aid to families with dependent children program was replaced with the temporary assistance for needy families tanf program this paper considers the effects of two specific components of tanf time limits and work requirements on employment marriage and welfare participation a discrete choice dynamic programming model is used and parameter estimates are obtained using data from the panel study of income dynamics policy simulations show that a five year lifetime time limit results in a 60 percent reduction in welfare use and that a substantial part of this reduction occurs because recipients are forward looking

welfare recipient work choice and in kind benefits in washington state we analyze the work choice of welfare recipients potential welfare recipients compare their on and off welfare utility from after tax income and in kind benefits via employment or welfare and choose whether to work our null hypothesis which we reject is that benefits affect only the decision to work or not not the hours worked which will depend on wages using temporary assistance for needy families tanf administrative data from washington state we find that employer provided health insurance and child care subsidies significantly raise exit rates of tanf recipients and induce greater work effort other work inducing factors include wages and the earned income tax credit while increased levels of medicaid food stamps and the income guarantee increase welfare dependency

the welfare cost of means testing pensioner participation in income support we estimate parametric and semi parametric binary choice models of benefit take up by british pensioners and use a revealed preference argument to infer the cash equivalent value of disutility arising from stigma or complexity of the claims process these implicit costs turn out to be relatively small averaging about 3 4 per week across income support recipients using the foster greer thorbecke measure of poverty among pensioners we find that allowing for implicit claim costs incurred by benefit recipients raises the measured degree of poverty by not more than 13 copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

recipient preferences and the design of government transfer programs most work on the marginal tax rates of government transfer programs has focused on their effect on labor supply it is commonly argued that taxpayers prefer low tax rates because they encourage work effort but dislike low tax rates because they raise the break even point and thereby dilute the ability of a given amount of spending to fight poverty no formal model has been worked out to predict how the tax rate will be set in the face of this trade off

empirical determinants of in kind redistribution partisan biases and the role of inflation there is a dearth of research on the determinants of in kind redistribution using dynamic panel data estimations for 32 oecd countries we show that the in kind share of social benefits is lower under left wing governments this effect is weakened when left wing governments respond to inflation by increasing the share of in kind transfers

corruption fertility and human capital abstract we build an overlapping generations model in which reproductive households face a child quantity child quality trade off and bureaucrats are delegated with the task of delivering public services that support the accumulation of human capital by integrating the theoretical analyses of endogenous growth corruption and fertility choices we show that the negative relation between fertility and economic development may also be affected by differences in the magnitude of bureaucratic corruption

the banzhaf fallacy according to a frequently published argument which i will label the banzhaf argument there is an intrinsic large state advantage in presidential elections proportional to the square root of the relative size of the state if the argument were empirically meaningful as its proponents have always implied and usually asserted then a voter in california would enjoy about twice the voting power of a voter in virginia reflecting the roughly fourfold ratio in population this advantage moreover is presented as an intrinsic mathematical property of the electoral college scheme not something deduced from demography voting patterns or some other appeal to empirical observations the earliest versions of the argument are banzhaf 1968 and riker and shapley 1968 subsequent variants of the argument can be found among other places in brams and davis 1974 owen 1975 and lake 1979 with the obvious exception of arrow s impossibility theorem there cannot be many mathematical arguments more often cited by nonmathematical political scientists however when mathematical analysis produces a counterintuitive result it is prudent to allow for the possibility that what needs to be corrected is the mathematics brian barry has made this point in a recent discussion of indices of voting power barry 1980 as it happens the particular voting power index we are considering here provides a very striking illustration of barry s message a preliminary point of the discussion that follows is that the banzhaf argument depends on a treatment of elections for purpose of calculating a power index as if they were like experiments in coin tossing each voter tossing a coin to decide whether to vote democratic or republican of itself the unrealism of the coin tossing model does not make the banzhaf result a fallacy because all models use some more or less unrealistic simplifying assumptions even in the natural sciences and even extremely artificial assumptions occasionally produce adequate approximations of real situations

time inconsistency and welfare program participation evidence from the nlsy we empirically implement a dynamic structural model of labor supply and welfare program participation for agents with potentially time inconsistent preferences using panel data on the choices of single women with children from the nlsy 1979 we provide estimates of the degree of time inconsistency and of its influence on the welfare take up decision with these estimates we conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify the utility loss stemming from the inability to commit to future decisions and the potential utility gains from commitment mechanisms such as welfare time limits and work requirements

an employment approach to urban poverty alleviation employment patterns of afdc recipients the milwaukee experience 1989 93 major changes are underway in the american programme to aid mothers with dependent children one major component of the proposed changes is a work requirement for mothers to begin to explore what problems and opportunities may be created by a work requirement this paper explores several questions related to the work and earnings experience of a cohort of 42 000 aid recipients in an urban county among the several findings is the fact that about 70 per cent of the welfare recipients have recent work experience for some the experience is limited for others especially those known to have left welfare it is extensive the earnings produced from work range from basically pocket change to well in excess of us 16 500 per year the implications for policy changes vary with one s perspective what is clear is that some recipients can earn more than welfare for others such earnings will be more difficult

individual morality and reputation costs as deterrents to tax evasion abstract empirical evidence suggests some taxpayers never evade evasion increases with the tax rate and evasion decisions are interdependent these findings are not easily explained by the existing theory which models evasion as an independently made amoral gamble this paper uses nonpecuniary costs of evasion to reconcile theory with evidence once individuals are assumed to differ by an honesty characteristic taxpayers dichotomise into groups the more honest of which responds to a tax change as the evidence suggests a further extension is to introduce an endogenous reputation cost this suggests a positive relationship between the number of evaders and the tax rate

probability of purchase amount of purchase and the demographic incidence of the lottery tax abstract when consumers indifference curves are discontinuous at zero perhaps due to stigma or fixed costs of purchase then factors influencing the amount purchased will have a different effect on the probability of purchase estimation of the demand for a commodity like lottery tickets requires a procedure that accounts for this tobit estimation commonly used in this literature does not allow for this generalization we investigate individual lottery ticket purchases using data from a survey of households our results are quite disparate from earlier studies regarding the effects of many demographic variables on probability of play level of play and expected lottery ticket purchases and imply a different demographic incidence of the lottery tax than previous studies suggest

the impact of state economic differentials on household welfare and labor force behavior abstract this paper calculates state specific income expectations for low income households using a simultaneous model of household labor force and welfare participation decisions a variety of simulations indicate the interlocking effects of existing state differences in welfare wages and taxes on work welfare choices and income significant differences among similar households in different states occur equalization of welfare benefits eliminates some but not all of these differences but generates potentially serious policy problems for the states

cash welfare as a consumption smoothing mechanism for divorced mothers abstract while there has been considerable research on the disincentive effects of cash welfare under the aid to families with dependent children afdc program there is little evidence on the benefits of the program for single mothers and their children one potential benefit of this program is that it provides short run consumption insurance for women at the point that they become single mothers this is only true however to the extent that the program is not crowding out other sources of support such as own savings labor supply or transfers from others i assess the importance of this insurance mechanism by measuring the extent to which afdc smooths the consumption of women who transition to single motherhood through marital dissolution i use longitudinal data on family structure and consumption expenditures on food and housing from the panel study of income dynamics psid matched to information on the welfare benefits available in each state and year over the 1968 1985 period i find that raising potential benefits by one dollar raises the food and housing consumption of women who get divorced and their families by 28 cents this estimate implies that for each dollar of afdc received by this population their consumption of these categories of goods rises by up to 51 cents this is roughly the share of food and housing in the consumption bundle of divorced mothers and their families suggesting little crowdout of other sources of support

an economic model of welfare stigma perhaps the most basic assumption of the economic theory of consumer demand is that more is better than less virtually all of the major propositions of consumer theory can in a certain sense be derived from the assumption that goods are good interestingly however this tenet seems to be violated by the behavior of many individuals in the low income population for many turn out to be eligible for a positive welfare benefit but do not in fact join the welfare rolls for example it has been estimated that in 1970 only about 69 percent of the families eligible for afdc aid to families with dependent children participated in the program see richard michel 1980 the corresponding percentage for afdc u the program for which families with an unemployed male are eligible was only 43 percent and the participation rate in the food stamp program was only 38 percent see maurice mcdonald 1977 this phenomenon has puzzled many investigators because such individuals do not locate on the boundaries of their budget sets consequently most investigators ignore the problem when studying the effects of welfare programs on behavior in this paper this seemingly irrational rejection of an increase in income is modeled as resulting from welfare stigma that is from disutility arising from participation in a welfare program per se 1 the existence of stigma has been amply documented in the sociological literature patrick horan and patricia austin 1974 lee rainwater 1979 where interviews of recipients have often uncovered feelings of lack of self respect and negative self characterizations from participation in welfare nevertheless this phenomenon has not been modeled and many questions consequently remain when is the disutility of participation strong enough to prevent participation shouldn t we expect individuals to weigh the disutility of participation against the potential benefit in their decisions what is the elasticity of participation with respect to the potential benefit also in a slightly different vein how are the work disincentives of welfare affected by stigma these questions have been given scant attention by economists yet they are crucial for our ability to predict the impact of various welfare programs on the lowincome population here these questions are addressed by modeling nonparticipation as a utility maximizing decision the model is developed and estimated for the afdc program 2 the model posits an individual utility function containing not just disposable income but

income distribution and equilibrium multiplicity in a stigma based model of tax evasion abstract this paper incorporates continuous income distribution into the stigma based model of tax compliance the paper investigates the effect of income distribution on the existence of multiple equilibria and characterizes the conditions under which multiple equilibria emerge precisely multiple equilibria exist if taxpayer incomes are sufficiently homogeneous because the social coordination effect dominates the individual characteristics effect numerical simulations show that the main proposition is robust to allowing two step audit policies on the part of the tax agency under the presumption that the best or good equilibrium is selected whenever there are multiple equilibria as a byproduct the effect of various forms of tax reforms on the optimal two step audit policy the equilibrium compliance and fiscal revenue is analyzed

labor supply response to welfare programs a dynamic analysis previous static analyses of the work disincentive effects of welfare programs are extended to a dynamic context using a sample of continuous longitudinal labor market histories estimates are derived for welfare nonwelfare differences in labor market flows among the states of employment unemployment and nonparticipation the estimates are used to identify the main sources of the lower employment and labor force participation rates and higher unemployment rate of welfare recipients the findings indicate that welfare programs have substantial effects on virtually every labor market transition examined but that the primary source of the static work disincentive effect is slower entry into employment

child care choices and children s cognitive achievement the case of single mothers we evaluate the effect of child care versus maternal time inputs on child cognitive development using single mothers from the nlsy79 to deal with nonrandom selection of children into child care we exploit the exogenous variation in welfare policy rules facing single mothers in particular the 1996 welfare reform and earlier state level policy changes generated substantial increases in their work child care use we construct a comprehensive set of welfare policy variables and use them as instruments to estimate child cognitive ability production functions in our baseline specification we estimate that a year of child care reduces child test scores by 2 1

optimal taxation when people do not maximize well being abstract i derive the optimal nonlinear income tax when individuals do not necessarily maximize their own well being this generates a corrective argument for taxation optimal marginal taxes are higher lower if individuals work too much too little from a well being point of view i allow for multidimensional heterogeneity and derive the optimal tax schedule in terms of measurable sufficient statistics one of these statistics measures the degree to which individuals fail to optimize their labor supply i empirically estimate this by using british life satisfaction data as a measure of well being i find that low income workers tend to work too little and high income workers too much providing a motive for lower marginal tax rates at the bottom and higher marginal tax rates at the top of the income distribution

federalizing benefits the introduction of supplemental security income and the size of the safety net abstract in 1974 supplemental security income ssi federalized cash welfare programs for the elderly blind and individuals with disabilities imposing a national minimum benefit and differentially raising payment levels in states that paid below its benefit floor we show that this increased disability participation but shrank non disability cash transfer programs for every four new ssi recipients three came from other welfare programs each dollar of per capita ssi income increased total per capita transfer income by just over 50 cents federalizing part of a patchwork safety net need not increase redistribution by as much as traditional models of fiscal federalism suggest

income happiness and the disutility of labor abstract we re examine the claim that the income effect on happiness is downward biased because higher income demands more work effort we find no evidence of an underestimation because the impact of working hours on happiness is rather small and hill shaped

estimating the value of an in kind transfer the case of food stamps the value of one in kind transfer food stamps is estimated by evaluating the experience of an actual conversion from stamps to cash in puerto rico in 1982 the evidence indicates that the cashout of the stamps had no detectable influence on food expenditures the explanation partly lies in the distribution of expenditures for the stamps were inframarginal for most recipients however some evidence indicates that trafficking in stamps was widespread as well including indirect evidence from estimation of the piecewise linear constraint model copyright 1989 by the econometric society

sickness absence and local benefit cultures in many countries sickness absence financed by generous insurance benefits is an important concern in the policy debate there are strong variations in absence behavior among local geographical areas such variations are difficult to explain in terms of observable socioeconomic factors in this paper we investigate whether such variations are related to group effects in the form of social interaction among individuals within neighborhoods well known methodological problems arise when trying to answer this question a special feature of our efforts to deal with these problems is that we adopt several alternative approaches to identify group effects our study is based on a rich set of swedish panel data and we find indications of group effects in each of our approaches

take up and targeting experimental evidence from snap this paper develops a framework for evaluating the welfare impact of various interventions designed to increase take up of social safety net programs in the presence of potential behavioral biases we calibrate the key parameters using a randomized field experiment in which 30 000 elderly individuals not enrolled in but likely eligible for the supplemental nutrition assistance program snap are either provided with information that they are likely eligible provided with this information and also offered assistance in applying or are in a status quo control group only 6 percent of the control group enrolls in snap over the next 9 months compared to 11 percent of the information only group and 18 percent of the information plus assistance group the individuals who apply or enroll in response to either intervention receive lower benefits and are less sick than the average enrollee in the control group the results are consistent with the existence of optimization frictions that are greater for needier individuals suggesting that the poor targeting properties of the interventions reduce their welfare gains

the power of the states in u s presidential elections the electoral college is a uniquely american political institution yet its impact on both the power of the american states and the relative power of citizens living in different states is not well understood game theorists have broached the state power problem exclusively in terms of the size of each of the states empirical investigators have been less systematic basing their analyses solely on which states have been close in a single election in this paper we present a model of state power which combines the idea of the pivotal player from game theory with an empirical model of state voting in doing so we provide a theoretically derived and empirically meaningful assessment of state power in presidential elections we then trace the implications of the power of the states for the relative power of individual voters finding large disparities between voters from different states

the econometrics of piecewise linear budget constraints a survey and exposition of the maximum likelihood method in this article maximum likelihood techniques for estimating consumer demand functions when budget constraints are piecewise linear are exposited and surveyed consumer demand functions are formally derived under such constraints and it is shown that the functions are themselves nonlinear as a result the econometric problems in estimating such functions are exposited and the importance of the stochastic specification is stressed in particular the specification of both unobserved heterogeneity of preferences and measurement error econometric issues in estimation and testing are discussed and the results of the studies that have been conducted to date are surveyed

promotional programmes and consumer purchasing decisions pecan demand models a generalized heckman model of purchase decisions is estimated incorporating perceived consumer quality attributes ease of purchase and familiarity with marketing outlets as factors influencing pecan purchases economic implications for evaluating consumer purchase decisions and the design of commodity promotion programmes for the pecan industry are addressed key marketing variables such as the variety of uses for nut products the number of outlets used to purchase pecans and consumer perceptions of positive quality features of pecans are significant in promoting purchases applications of a trade off analysis examine key variables considered by the pecan industry in developing promotional programmes both to stabilize pecan purchases and to maintain the probability of pecan purchases

unemployment insurance takeup rates and the after tax value of benefits the recent decline in the unemployment insurance ui takeup rate has puzzled researchers using administrative data with accurate information on the potential level and duration of benefits we examine whether a separating employee receives ui we find a strong positive effect of the benefit level on takeup and smaller effects of the potential duration and the tax treatment of benefits simulations indicate that the recent inclusion of ui in the income tax base can account for most of the previously unexplained decline in ui receipt

modern technology and economic efficiency of philippine rice farmers farmer s recent study and frankel s review of griffin s book suggest that belief in a gap between actual and potential agricultural production in developing countries has regained currency in the development community timmer s concern with measuring technical efficiency and the attempts of shapiro and miiller to relate modernization and information to technical efficiency focus on differences in productivity among farmers as indicators of such a gap 2 among technologists the gap hypothesis has a number of faithful adherents including the former director of the international rice research institute irri who could not understand why the asian farmer who had adopted the new rice varieties was not doing better somehow he felt that the rice scientists who had obtained yields of 5 to 10 metric tons per hectare on the irri farm still could not explain why so many filipino farmers for example obtained on the average less than one metric ton per hectare increase in yield after shifting from the traditional to the high yielding varieties 3 in response to these persistent questions in 1974 scientists at irri began a research project to measure the yield gap and to understand the factors responsible for it the yield gap was defined by biologists as the difference under farmers conditions between the maximum yield possible

compensating for public harms why public goods are preferred to money this paper provides evidence that public goods represent a more acceptable response to public harms than monetary compensation we demonstrate a preference for public goods over monetary compensation in part because receipt of public goods may limit the sense of guilt or bribery from accepting compensation for the injury more surprising this preference for public goods over money in the presence of a harm remains in a free market choice where guilt is not an issue it appears that public goods psychologically mitigate or balance public harms in a way that makes them more valuable in the presence of public harms

do snap participants expand non food spending when they receive more snap benefits evidence from the 2009 snap benefits increase this study examines the expenditure response to the largest increase in supplemental nutrition assistance program benefits instituted in april 2009 investigating the effects in both food and non food spending categories i find that the rise in snap benefits increased not only food at home expenditures but also housing transportation and education expenditures of snap households relative to those of non snap households specifically the snap benefit increase leads to the reduced out of pocket spending on food for infra marginal snap recipients and the freed up resources allowed households with bounded budgets to fund other essential needs such as paying mortgage rent utility fee transportation expenses as well as tuition examining non food expenditures provides a more complete picture of the impact of the snap benefit increase by shedding light on the spillover effect of the policy change the result also derives policy implication on ongoing debate about snap allotment generosity

pivotal states in the electoral college 1880 to 2004 this paper presents an empirical measure of pivoting in the electoral college from 1880 to 2004 the measure derives from established theoretical concepts of power and pivoting first introduced by shapley and shubik am political sci rev 84 787 792 1954 pivotal states identified by this approach generally conform to popular interpretations ohio in 2004 florida in 2000 and so forth but historically pivotal states are also frequently small or medium sized states also pivotal states by this approach are not necessarily competitive states in general whether or not a state is pivotal is mainly a function of its size and bellwether tendency i e its tendency to mirror the national voting trend a state s pivot position is also an excellent predictor of how presidential candidates allocated time and money across states in the general elections of 2000 and 2004 controlling for a state s pivot position size and electoral competitiveness have little effect on the allocation of campaign resources

corruption tax evasion and social values we provide a theoretical explanation for the vicious circle of political corruption and tax evasion in which countries often fall into we address this issue in the context of a model with two distinct groups of agents citizens and politicians citizens decide the fraction of their income for which they evade taxes politicians decide the fraction of the public budget that they peculate we show that multiple self fulfilling equilibria with different levels of corruption can emerge based on the existence of strategic complementarities indicating that corruption may corrupt furthermore we find that standard deterrence policies cannot eliminate the multiplicity of equilibria instead policies that impose a strong moral cost on tax evaders and corrupt politicians can lead to a unique equilibrium

the intergenerational transfer of welfare dependency some statistical evidence does a mother s welfare receipt increase the future dependency of her children does the welfare system thus stimulate the dependency of future generations parameter estimates reported here suggest such intergenerational effects the sample comprises young girls and their mothers after control for observed and unobserved heterogeneity a mother s welfare participation is found to increase her daughter s later welfare dependency copyright 1992 by mit press

does decreasing working time reduce environmental pressures new evidence based on dynamic panel approach abstract there is a growing interest in the correlation between working time and environmental pressures but prior empirical studies were mostly focused on static methods within limited country groups to fill the gap this study aims to stimulate the discussion by distinguishing between different time periods for developed and developing country groups respectively in particular we contribute to a further understanding of the environmental effects of working time reduction policies by comparing the differences under the dynamic framework of system generalized method of moments we applied this dynamic panel regression approach for 55 countries worldwide over the period 1980 2010 and employing carbon emissions per capita as the environmental indicator in general results confirmed the significant relationship between hours of work and environmental impacts in developed economies although this is not the case for the developing counterparts interestingly the significant correlations for the developed country group turned from positive during the first sub period 1980 2000 to negative during the second sub period 2001 2010 connecting these results with previous literature we proposed the reasons of rebound energy use derived from certain leisure activities which were more energy intensive if excessive non working time provided

rural wages labor supply and land reform a theoretical and empirical analysis land reform is one of the most mentioned of the theoretical policy instruments discussed in the development literature yet relatively little attention has been paid to the wage rate consequences of such a program despite the fact that perhaps more than one half of rural families in a developing country receive a substantial proportion of their income from wage earnings in agriculture one reason for this lacuna may be that the determination of wages and family labor supply in the agricultural sector of ldcs has also been somewhat neglected particularly in the context of a heterogeneous labor force 2 the subsistence or institutional wage models of w arthur lewis john fei and gustav ranis and gerald rodgers for instance offer no theory of how rural wage levels or differentials are set and thus provide little guidance on how wage rates would be affected by changes in land ownership patterns more recently pranab bardhan and t n srinivasan david newbery and clive bell and pinhas zusman who formulate general equilibrium market or bargaining models determining endogenously the rental share paid by tenant sharecroppers have assumed that agricultural wage rates are exogenous or determined only by nonagricultural factors all of these models assume that rural labor is homogeneous another reason why the potential wage impact of a land reform program may have received little attention is that models of peasant family behavior such as those of a k sen dipak mazumdar and robert mabro typically embody two restrictive assumptions which would tend to make the equalization of landholdings appear wage augmenting although this implication has never been formally derived these assumptions are that 1 agriculture is dualistic with small farm families facing lower shadow prices of labor leisure than large farm landlords because of impediments to labor mobility and 2 agricultural households are dichotomous small farmers employ family labor and maximize utility while large farms only utilize wage labor and maximize profits data from a 1970 71 allindia survey of over 5 000 households collected by the national council of applied economic research3 indicate however that almost all cultivator households large and small participate actively in the labor market as either buyers or sellers of labor services with almost 88 percent of households cultivating a gross cropped area less than 1 5 acres utilizing some hired labor seventynine percent of these small farm households associate professor yale ujniversity the research embodied in this paper was supported in part by a grant from the ford and rockefeller foundations program in support of social science and legal research on population policy and with funds from the u s agency for international development under order no aid otr 1432 helpful suggestions and comments were provided by james l mccabe mark gersovitz an anonymous referee the managing editor and members of the economic growth center yale university i am also grateful to the members of the research program in development studies princeton university for the use of their facilities research assistance was provided by james devine anne morgan and roberta robson inotable exceptions are r albert berry mark gersovitz and m a rahman all of these authors however employ geometric analyses with differing assumptions leading to wholly different predictions regarding wage effects none consider the heterogeneity of agricultural labor pay attention to questions of stability or attempt to apply their models to data 2lnformation on the differential impact of alternative agricultural policies including land reform on sex or age specific wage rates is not only important in settling income distribution and equity issues but as suggested in an article by the author and robert evenson may have significant implications for population growth and schooling as well 3for a more detailed discussion of these data see the author

geographical targeting for poverty alleviation an introduction to the special issue in the face of rising public deficits and shrinking public resources geographical targeting may be a viable way to allocate resources for poverty alleviation in developing countries efficiency can be increased and leakage to the non poor reduced substantially by targeting increasingly smaller areas this article and more generally the symposium on geographical targeting for poverty alleviation proposes several techniques for augmenting data to produce more detailed poverty maps it focuses on practical considerations in the design of geographically targeted poverty alleviation programs in particular it assesses the advantages and disadvantages of geographical targeting and describes how geographic information systems can be applied to improve poverty mapping

on the theory of strategic voting many analyses of plurality rule elections predict the complete coor dination of strategic voting and hence support for only two candidates here i suggest that stable multi candidate support will arise in equilibrium a group of voters must partially coordinate behind one of two challenging candidates in order to dislodge a disliked incumbent in a departure from existing models the popular support for each challenger is uncertain this support must be inferred from the private observation of informative signals such as the social communication of pref erences throughout the electorate or the imperfect observation of opinion polls the uniquely stable voting equilibrium entails only limited strategic voting and hence incomplete coordination this is due to the surprising presence of negative feed back an increase in the degree of strategic voting by others reduces the incentives for an individual to vote strategically the incentive to vote strategically is lower in relatively marginal elections after controlling for the distance from contention of a trailing preferred challenger a calibration of the model applied to the uk general election of 1997 is consistent with the impact of strategic voting and the reported accuracy of voters understanding of the electoral situation it suggests that nearly 50 seats may have been lost by the conservative party due to strategic voting 1 plurality rule elections and strategic voting 1 1 strategic voting and duverger s law plurality rule elections where the winner is the candidate who receives the largest number of votes are vulnerable to strategic voting a voter might well switch away from her preferred candidate and toward a perceived leader in the hope of exerting a greater influence over the outcome of the election this phenomenon has long been the focus of both economic and political scientific study in an influential essay riker 1982b cited droop s 1871 eloquent exposition of the strategic voting problem 1 i oer my grateful thanks to the many friends colleagues seminar participants referees and editors who have oered insightful comments during the long gestation of this paper its antecedents and companion work special thanks go to steve fisher whose empirical analysis of strategic voting raised many of the questions that i seek to answer in this paper and to chris wallace this particular paper brings together much of the analysis previously circulated in the papers a new theory of strategic voting strategic voting under the qualified majority rule and idiosyncrasy information and the impact of strategic voting

the effect of medicaid premiums on enrollment a regression discontinuity approach abstract this paper estimates the effect that premiums in medicaid have on the length of enrollment of program beneficiaries whether and how low income families will participate in the exchanges and in states medicaid programs depends crucially on the structure and amounts of the premiums they will face i take advantage of discontinuities in the structure of wisconsin s medicaid program to identify the effects of premiums on enrollment for low income families i use a 3 year administrative panel of enrollment data to estimate these effects i find an increase in the premium from 0 to 10 dollars per month results in 1 4 fewer months enrolled and reduces the probability of remaining enrolled for a full year by 12 percentage points but other discrete changes in premium amounts do not affect enrollment or have a much smaller effect i find no evidence of program enrollees intentionally decreasing labor supply in order to avoid the premiums

conspicuous consumption snobbism and conformism abstract we develop a model in which consumers purchase a conspicuous good in order to signal high income and thereby achieve greater social status in equilibrium the signalling value of conspicuous consumption depends in an identifiable way on the number of consumers and consumer behaviour is characterized by either snobbism or conformism the market demand curve for the conspicuous good may exhibit a positive slope if consumers are conformist we derive some unconventional policy implications concerning the taxation of luxuries and the voluntary provision of public goods

explaining tractorization in nepal an alternative to the consequences approach abstract the debate on whether or not agricultural mechanization should be subsidized in developing countries usually focuses on the employment and yield effects of mechanization this paper takes the alternative tack that designing mechanization policy requires understanding the determinants of the mechanization choice a model of investment and factor use is developed and applied to the land preparation decision of 99 farmers in the terai region of nepal farmers ownership and use of tractors are accurately predicted by the hypothesis that farmers maximize expected accounting profits since farmers are privately efficient tractor subsidies which increase the wedge between the private and social shadow prices of mechanical power will decrease economic effiency

child support welfare dependency and poverty female headed families have among the highest poverty rates of any major demographic group in the united states the purpose of this paperis to investigate empirically the effectiveness of current child support enforcement policies and to determine their role in reducing poverty and welfare dependency a special supplement to the april 1982 current population survey provides the data for the analysis the results indicate that child support enforce ment may represent an effective means for re ducing welfare program costs but isunlikely to have a dramatic effect on either welfare de pendency or poverty copyright 1986 by american economic association

the effects of local labour market conditions on welfare programme participation a fractional imputation method is applied to iowa administrative data to deal with a problem of missing data the effects of local labour market conditions and mobility of household heads on family investment program fip participation are evaluated results show that mobility increases the opportunity for employment and decreases the fip participation rate for low income families an increase in predicted unemployment rates decreases labour force participation and increases programme participation an increase in unpredicted unemployment rates increases labour force participation and decreases programme participation overall the effects are relatively larger in rural areas than in nonrural areas in iowa

estimating labor supply responses and welfare participation using a natural experiment to validate a structural labor supply model in this paper we formulate and estimate an economic model of labor supply and welfare participation the model is estimated on data on single men from quebec drawn from the 1986 canadian census budget sets for each work welfare combination accounting for income taxes tax credits and welfare benefit rules are derived using a microsimulation model we validate our model by comparing reactions to a welfare reform that implied a dramatic increase in welfare benefits predicted by our model to those obtained by using a regression discontinuity approach the results show that our model is capable of recovering actual changes in labor supply and welfare participation we also show the advantage of having estimated a structural model by illustrating how labor supply and welfare participation change when benefit levels change

why did the ssi disabled program grow so much disentangling the effect of medicaid the number of participants in the ssi program grew by 1 1 million from 1987 to 1993 this paper examines the role of medicaid on the ssi participation decision i use the rapid growth in average medicaid expenditure as a proxy for its value ols estimates of medicaid s effect may be biased because of omitted variables bias and measurement error i therefore apply two stage least squares to estimate medicaid s effect using average medicaid expenditure for blind ssi recipients as an instrument these estimates show that rising medicaid expenditure significantly increased ssi participation among adults with low permanent incomes explaining 20 of the growth

explaining and forecasting results of the self sufficiency project this paper studies the self sufficiency project ssp a controlled randomized experiment concerning welfare by estimating a model of endogenous skill accumulation multidimensional job opportunities and time varying opportunity costs of labour market time methods for estimating dynamic programming models with unobserved heterogeneity are extended to account for unexpected policy interventions and endogenous sample selection and initial conditions parameters are identified and consistently estimated by imposing optimal responses to the exact form of the ssp earnings supplement and the experimental program which induces exogenous variation between treatment groups and within groups as treatment progresses the estimated model tracks primary outcomes well in and out of sample except for underestimating trends in the sample of new welfare applicants predictions from counterfactual experiments run counter to non structural results reported elsewhere and they suggest that details of the ssp s design are critical for interpretation of results the separate ssp plus treatment may have longer lasting and more generalized impacts than the in sample impacts suggest copyright oxford university press

nonparametric instrumental variable methods for dynamic treatment evaluation we develop a nonparametric instrumental variable approach for the estimation of average treatment effects on hazard rates and conditional survival probabilities without model structure we derive constructive identification proofs for average treatment effects under noncompliance and dynamic selection exploiting instrumental variation taking place during ongoing spells we derive asymptotic distributions of the corresponding estimators this includes a detailed examination of noncompliance in a dynamic context in an empirical application we evaluate the french labor market policy reform pare which abolished the dependence of unemployment insurance benefits on the elapsed unemployment duration and simultaneously introduced additional active labor market policy measures the estimated effect of the reform on the survival function of the duration of unemployment duration is positive and significant neglecting selectivity leads to an underestimation of the effects in absolute terms

welfare the earned income tax credit and the labor supply of single mothers during 1984 1996 welfare and tax policy were changed to encourage work by single mothers the earned income tax credit was expanded welfare benets were cut welfare time limits were added and welfare cases were terminated medicaid for the working poor was expanded as were training programs and child care during this same time period there were unprecedented increases in the employment and hours of single mothers we show that a large share of the increase in work by single mothers can be attributed to the eitc and other tax changes with smaller shares for welfare benet cuts welfare waivers training programs and child care programs